USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

Electronic reproduction sourced from
968China Leads From The Front By Doubling Its Gold Reserves This Year.#1420273/1/06; 05:20:23

"Interesting to read that the National Development and Reform Commission has stated that China intends to more than double its gold reserves to 1,270 tonnes this year. According to figures released recently by the World Gold Council on official gold holdings this will put it on a par with Switzerland in 6th position. In 2005 China increased its gold reserves by 20 per cent to 620 tonnes and now it is going to add a further 650 tonnes."
OvSChina Gold.#1420283/1/06; 06:50:27

How did and do the Chinese
gather their nice stash of
gold without driving the
price to outer orbit?
1. They made long-term con-
tractual deals with South
African and other miners.
2. They buy intermittently
on the world's markets.
3. They contracted American
and other gold exploration
and mining companies to
modernize their antiquated
operations with Western
knowhow. (One of our sage
posters is heavily involved
in these deals). OvS

Lacklustersome interesting history#1420293/1/06; 07:50:52

I have in my great grandfather's safe at home some bonds that some people reading here might find interesting. They are "Twenty Year Six Per Cent U. S. Dollar Gold Bonds" issued by the Republic of Poland. There are two $100 and one $50 bonds. These were issued, appropriately enough, on April 1st, 1920.

My great grandfather had emigrated from Poland to the US around 1900, and must have wanted to help out "the Old Country", I guess. Here is some of what it say on the bonds:

"The Republic of Poland for value received, hereby promises to pay to bearer on April 1, 1940, the principal sum of > ONE HUNDRED DOLLARS < and to pay interest thereon, from the date hereof, at the rate of six per cent. per annum, semi-annually, on October 1, and April 1 in each year.

Until the maturity of the Bond, such interest shall be paid only upon presentation and surrender of the annexed interest coupons as they serially mature.

Both principal and interest of this Bond are payable at the National City Bank of New York, in the Borough of Manhattan, City and State of New York, United States of America, in gold coin of the United States of America, of or equal to the present standard of weight and fineness, and shall paid as well in time of war as of peace whether the holder of this Bond is a citizen or subject of a friendly or a hostile State, without deduction from either principal or interest or on account of any present or future govermental, municipal or other taxes or duties levied or imposed by or within or by authority of the Republic of Poland, from any and all of which taxes or duties this Bond, and the interest hereon are hereby expressly declared to be forever exempt."

On all three of these bonds, there are still six coupons left. For some reason, my great grandfather did not redeem the coupons for Oct. 1937 and later. In the case of the $100 dollar bond, this means that he was still owed $18, almost all of the interest! Of course, we all know what happened to the Republic in 1939. I wonder if he was still able to be payed in gold coin as the bond stipulates, after 1933?

With the bonds is a newspaper clipping dated October 19th, 1972, "POLAND TO PAY OFF ON BONDS HELD HERE"

New York (AP) -- A preliminary accord for settlement of Polish government bonds dating back to the 1920s may benefit an estimated 10,000 Americans holding $41 million worth of the prewar bonds.

The agreement, providing for a permanent settlement of the debts after bondholders are identified over the next two years, was reached Tuesday by officials of the Polish government and the Foreighn Bondholders Protective Council.

George D. Woods, head of the council, and former president of the World Bank, termed the agreement a "breakthrough," saying "I believe our bondholders are the last ones to have been settled with" by Poland.

Woods said it was difficult to predict just how many American bondholders would be involved ine the final settlement. "These bonds are held by hundreds of faceless people," he said. "Maybe a lot of them are lost or burned up."

Many bondholders are presumed to be among the large Polish-American communities in New York, Chicago, Buffalo, and other citeis.


The Polish bonds are among an estimated $10 billion worth of foreign bonds sold in the U.S. during the 1920s. They had wide appeal to ethnic groups, for both old world sentiment and investment reasons.

Woods said the agreement provides for Poland to pay 1 1/2 per cent interest between July 1, 1973 and June 30, 1974, then 2 per cent the following year. The permanent settlement on payment of both interest and principal is to be worked out by July 1, 1975.

While the Polish bonds were selling for less than 9 per cent of their face value earlier this year, they climbed as high as 33 per cent last month after word of the negotiations leaked out.

The agreement did not directly involve the United States government, Woods said.

The council, a nonprofit group formed in 1933 by President Franklin D. Roosevelt, has managed to secure foreign debt settlements totalling $3.5 billion.

Yugoslavia in 1960 became the first Eastern European nation to settle prewar debts, while Hungary, Bulgaria, Rumania, Czechoslavakia, the Soviet Union and Cuba have not paid back American bondholders."


No mention by Woods if the bonds should be paid off in gold, huh? Makes one wonder about all the US bonds that are floating around.

mikal"Financial tools outpacing controls"#1420303/1/06; 08:36:28

Fed Official Warns of Changes - Nell Henderson - Wash.Post 03/01/06 -- More on credit derivatives and hedge funds, risk perception and vulnerability.
GoldnoviceA Different Culture#1420313/1/06; 08:40:54

Apropos of spreads:
After another purchase at our friendly little gold shop in Ho Chi Minh City the other day, I asked the owner about the mark-up on gold jewelry, specifically wedding rings. Much to my surprise, a band of gold costs less than three percent above the price of the metal from which it is fashioned. In Australia and elsewhere in the western world, the mark-up is 300% to 400%, as my Vietnamese bride found to her horror when we were shopping for our wedding rings in Sydney ten years ago.

And the buy-sell spread on the top grade of gold, which is "SJC" from the state-owned Saigon Jewelry Company, is 0.25% at this particular shop (not that we have sold any of our metal). Of course, at the bigger, flashier shops in prime commercial locations, the spread on SJC is around 1% but those places are for the mugs (and the POG is slightly higher at them too). Over here, 99.99% is the second-top grade, and has a much greater buy-sell spread, at some shops approaching 2%. God knows why anyone would buy it.

There are thousands of jewelry stores in this town alone, and I mean thousands, mostly family-run businesses that make a good living for their owners.

Something odd happened while writing this post. Our friendly currency woman dropped in as arranged to change some Aussie dollars into the local currency. Now the Aussie had strengthened nearly half a cent against the US dollar since the other day when we used her services, yet she would only give us the same exchange rate (the dong is more or less tied to the greenback, though there is some drift). It seems that many Vietnamese are changing their foreign currency into dong in order to buy gold, so demand for the local currency is running high.

GoldiloxFinancial Rebellion Starting#1420323/1/06; 09:04:23


The problem with terrorism laws is that in the wrong hands (and who makes that decision?) they could be interpreted in such a way that anyone who actively organizes a protest against the present power structure could be named an enemy of the state and carted off.

But what do you suppose would drive people to such behaviors? Well, today we read about the real drop in lower income family standards of living: Reported by the Fed now, the story goes something along the lines of a Robin Hood from Hell, where the robbing is from the poor and given to the (already) rich. Salient quote:

"This is the continuing story of the rich getting richer," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. "Clearly, the gains in wealth are going to the top end."

Something that seems to ring true to the web bot's "rebellion" attribute set (associated with the USA Populous entity) is the reported plan for various groups to Storm the White House and try to occupy it. Obviously, such an occupation can not and will not be tolerated by the powers that be. To me, it has Kent State potential. (Lyrics to Crosby Stills & Nash "Ohio")

While you might be tempted to rock the boat, frame your thinking with the idea that the Soft Dictatorship is a gamble by the power structure that just regular folks like you and me won't join in something like an AmRevTwo (the Second American Revolution) which you can hear talk about on the fringes, or other direct action like this Occupy the White House drive.

I expect most Americans (including me) would like to act peacefully (by coordinated voting, third parties, changing the existing from the inside and by legal processes, etc.) to reestablish this Great Country as a Constitutional Republic, not the Empire of the Rich it seems bent on becoming. Still, there is so much anger among the marginalized/poor/unemployed that the web bot's "rebellion" meme seems to be coming to life. And quickly.


I think more people are beginning to doubt the veracity of the "electronic" voting methodology, even as more communities are scrambling to employ the Diebold "incumbent" machines. No wonder the FED is looking at alt bank clearing options if TSHTF. One thing about being "stinkin' rich", is you have more options to cut and run.

GoldiloxMargins and social acceptance#1420333/1/06; 09:22:05

@ Goldnovice,

The Viet-Nam and China margins are reflective of societies that value individual gold ownership highly. Western powers are still in bankster defined gold denigration mode, as evidenced by much higher margins, capital gains taxes, etc.

It reminds me of the yardstick used by Jim Rogers in his "Investment Biker" book and travels. He judged the viability of a local economies by how closely the black market exchange rates reflected the "official" currency exchange rates. Tight margins reflected a healthy eceonomy, while wide margins demonstrated much effort towards "centralized control" and manipulation.

It's a great read, although somewhat dated. As a travelogue, especially for motorcycle junkies, it is top-notch, but the economic sidebars add even more substance.

Description of "Investment Biker" -

Jim Rogers is known for being cut from a different cloth than most of the people on Wall Street. He's a contrarian, and a daring one at that - Rogers was the one who realised the perennially moribund Austrian stock market was a Sleeping Beauty, kissed her, and woke her up.The Austrian economy boomed as a result; besides that, he's a small town Southern boy who's never forgotten where he came from - or where he wants to go.

One of his passions is motorcycling. He'd always dreamed of taking a trip around the world on his bike, and in 1990, with his girlfriend,Tabitha Estabrook, he did just that.They set out not only to travel, but to learn about the world's developing countries and investment markets by actually going to them. It took twenty-two months, but together they drove 65,067 miles on land and travelled thousands more on sea, air, barge, and rail links across six continents, setting a world record for land travel on the way. Investment Biker is the story of this amazing trip.

It's also about the world economy and society - who's sinking and who's swimming, which countries are on the rise and which collapsing, where you can make a million and where you could lose one. Every place he stopped on the trip, Rogers talked to businessmen, bankers, investors, and regular people, and learned reams of information that you'd never learn from reading the financial pages of any periodicals.

All in all, it's quite a ride. Investment Biker not only thrills with its account of the journey of a lifetime, but provides the tips that might allow you to pay for a trip just like it.

- Available on Amazon and Alibris, often in used condition.

GoldnoviceTa!#1420343/1/06; 09:40:56

@ Goldilox
Thanks for the tip. Being an ex-biker myself (BMW960), I'm sure "Investment Rider" will be a great read, when I get hold of a copy!

Certainly in Vietnam the black market forex rates are very close to the official rates, which are set by the central bank daily.

GoldnoviceWhoops#1420353/1/06; 09:42:18

Sorry, I meant "Investment Biker"
GoldiloxBMW model#1420363/1/06; 09:53:54

@ Goldnovice,

What's a "960"? Do you mean an R90, or R60? My first big bike was an R75/6 in 1976. That was part of what led me to Jim Roger's book.

I ride an R1200C Cruiser, and hang out at:, and

Great book - good luck getting it to 'Nam.

Flatliner@yesterdays Chris Powell msg#: 142025#1420373/1/06; 10:12:44

This second article points out an opportunity window. It says "…for 13 weeks beginning next Monday and running until May 27,…" My questions are, why this time period and why the change?

I guess I'm having a hard time understanding why the US Dollar -> Yuan -> Gold process is not adequate? (Or is not as advantageous as the US Dollar -> Gold process.) Anyone have any solid idea here? The only thing that I can think of is that China is trying out another world currency to see how it's adopted. But, I still don't see the connection.

Also, with regards to the timing window, why for the next 13 weeks? Will it change in 13 weeks to something else? Is this a ‘call in’ for US Dollars in China? Could it be that China see's protectionism in the US against China for some reason in the near future? Are there other greater plans in play?

Or, is there some really simple answer here that warrants no suspicion on the general public's part?

Clink!@ Goldi et all#1420383/1/06; 10:54:23

For those who a/ want a more recent read and b/ consider that there are two key things missing from a motorcycle (one front wheel and one rear wheel (although I wouldn't say "no" to a Morgan 3-wheeler)), Jim Rogers repeated the feat in 2001/2 in a modified (to diesel) Mercedes convertible and wrote about it in "Adventure Capitalist". Again, a fascinating read. He must be succeeding better in his love life too, as the girlfriend he started out with finished as his wife !

GoldnoviceGolden motorcycles#1420393/1/06; 11:23:41

@ Goldilox
Um, R90/6. Sold it in 1990 when my reaction time didn't seem up to scratch. Still in A1 nick.

EagleOneInvestment Biker#1420403/1/06; 11:48:21

Ah yes, on my next trip around the world I plan to stop at each town, village and hovel and research the local conditions with the jewelry shops and money changers so I can write the trip off as an investment expense like my good friend, Jimmy. Whoops, guess not. My wife won't let me take my girlfriend.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Especially designed for those who are taking their first small step...#1420413/1/06; 12:52:10">gold ownership starter kit
GoldiloxAdventure Capitalist#1420423/1/06; 13:17:39

@ Clink,

Read that one too, although the first was more "Earthy" and his traveling persona was more "stealth". It's probably very different negotiating border "gratuities" (aka bribes) in a Merc 4x4 plus custom trailer than on two "beater" motorcycles.

Also, I don't think the two women were the same person, although you're correct about the second one being a spousal unit. One has to wonder how much influence the wedding band had on the upgraded mode of transportation.

Anyway, they're both good books, and many photos from his second trip are posted for reader enjoyment.

TownCrierFlatliner, Chinese gold trading regimes#1420433/1/06; 13:37:09

I think a reasonable initial interpretation of the new trading regime (20% reduction in yuan-denominated spread for 13 weeks) is that it subtly meets two objectives: in the local market it ever-so-slightly helps to encourage gold investors by putting more gold into their hands at less cost, whereas to the international market it effectively signals an official appreciation of the yuan versus the dollar (vis à vis gold purchasing power) by this tweaked amount.

As for the thirteen week timing, it may simply be that that period of time was deemed an adequate bridge to a more formal yuan/dollar exchange rate adjustment upon which the trial greenback>>gold trading allowance will commence.


ToolieFlatliner#1420443/1/06; 13:51:51

To add to Randy's thoughts...

It seems as though the Chinese desire that some of those dollars on their mainland be encouraged to migrate into gold, rather than ride the Yuan up in value. As China doesn't want the same over-issuance problems that the dollar has. Bringing to mind Belgian's ‘golden relief valve’.

TownCrier968, China 'Doubling Its Gold Reserves This Year'#1420453/1/06; 14:22:24

Thanks for the link!

And to get back to you on your Saturday Norwegian oil/euro news item, I would echo the Monday comments of Knallgold (msg#: 141968) and Clink! (msg#: 141975).

To go a bit further, I would point out the astounding role Norway seems to be playing as the non-EU middleman helping to broker a smooth transition in this whole affair.

We would do well to remember that it was within these past two years (+/-) that Norway, on the strength of its North Sea oil reserves, allowed the redistribution of its nearly 40 tonnes of gold reserves -- something serving at that time as a short-term dollar-friendly gesture.

And now, in this defining gesture (euro-denominated oil bourse) we can see where their head and heart really is and likely has been all along. Given that, one has only to wonder which eurosystem-friendly entities were the ultimate recipients of that superficially dollar-friendly gold liquidation...

It's a great game when you know how to play it!


Federal_ReservesRoad to bankruptcy #1420463/1/06; 15:16:06

US government long-term promises top $46 trillion
Wed Mar 1, 2006 5:04 PM ET

WASHINGTON, March 1 (Reuters) - As lawmakers prepare to raise the $8.18 trillion U.S. borrowing limit, a congressional agency on Wednesday warned that when promised government health and retirement benefits are taken into account the long-term obligations top $46 trillion.

David Walker, who heads the U.S. Government Accountability Office, told a House subcommittee that number represents present value of long-term promises made for Social Security retirement as well as Medicare health programs for the elderly and other government promised benefits including those for veterans.

"Given these and other factors, a fundamental re-examination of major spending programs, tax policies and government priorities will be important and necessary to put us on a prudent and sustainable fiscal path," Walker said in testimony to a House Government Reform subcommittee.

"We need to be more truthful about where we are and where we are headed," Walker said.

He said spending cuts alone, a path favored by President George W. Bush and his Republican allies in Congress, will not address the country's long-term fiscal imbalance.

The U.S. Treasury is already bumping up against a $8.18 trillion credit limit and has asked Congress to quickly raise the ceiling so the government can borrow more money and pay its bills.

The politically unpalatable move has been put off until mid-March, forcing the Treasury to juggle its accounts in order to avoid default.

Walker said one of the biggest unknown costs facing the government as the 77 million-strong baby boom generation retires is health-care costs and Medicare, particularly in light of the new drug benefit going into effect this year.

"I think you are going to have an extremely difficult time delivering on this promise over time," Walker said.

Congress recently enacted $39 billion in spending cuts, including health-care cuts, over five years and are currently negotiating a $70 billion tax-cut package.

On Wednesday, Senate Budget Committee Chairman Judd Gregg, a New Hampshire Republican, said he would like to pursue additional cuts to Medicare of about $35 billion during this year's budget process. He acknowledged it will be difficult given this year's congressional elections.

>>> I thought all these tax cuts were suppose to
>>> increase government revenues Mr. Snow?

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1420473/1/06; 16:14:58">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

WEDNESDAY Market Excerpts

March 1 (from Reuters) -- Investment buying lifted COMEX April gold contracts up $1.90 to $565.70, but fluctuations in the dollar limited gains.

The greenback initially slipped against the euro, making gold more attractive to European investors. But it was firm all day against the yen, even as the markets prepared for the Bank of Japan to begin to unwind years of super easy monetary policy, which had eroded confidence in the yen and spurred gold investment in Japan.

Prices have been swinging violently since benchmark futures peaked at $579.50 on Feb. 3 then fell to $537.80 on Feb. 14.

The volatility kept some consumers on the sidelines, looking for bargains. But funds have taken up the slack as commodities are increasingly sought to diversify portfolios.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

Chris PowellGartman 'couldn't care less' if gold price is manipulated#1420483/1/06; 18:16:55

Latest GATA dispatch.

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The Invisible HandWhy was discontinued?#1420493/1/06; 20:35:29
A blog especially dedicated to the subject of the [Iranian] oil exchange (oil bourse) ( was active in summer 2005 and posted several English-language

mikal@Invisible Hand#1420503/1/06; 20:59:08

Re: Why blog discontinued- Maybe they got word of a galactic bourse that will dwarf it. ;)
skiSilver and Gold......#1420513/1/06; 21:39:03

Sir Pritcho put this link up yesterday. The essay is by Ted Butler. The snip that Sir Pritcho included dealt with the disaster that one of the major gold producers is facing as a result of past gold hedging. But further into the essay, the subject of "more above-ground gold than silver" is discussed. If that story interests you, ..... you might take another look.

Ted Butler

"Another one of my prime contentions was recently confirmed. As long-time readers know, I have maintained that there is much more available above ground gold in the world than silver."

"The confirmation came from the archenemy of higher silver prices, the Silver Users Association (SUA), in one of their petitions to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to kill the Silver ETF. The SUA offered research and documentation from the CPM Group showing that there was 4 times the amount of gold above ground (3 billion ounces) than silver (750 million ounces). The SUA was trying to show how much more disruptive a silver ETF would be than the gold ETFs."

Chris PowellROB-TV's 'great gold debate' yields only support for gold#1420523/1/06; 21:54:04

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The Invisible HandThe greater offense#1420533/2/06; 01:48:02

On the 20th of this month, Iran will commit a far greater "offense" than what the toppled Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein did in the fall of 2002 when he announced shifting Iraq's oil exports to the euro.
But in case Washington attacks Iran, whether directly or by having Israel doing it, Iran is definitely ready for a heavy retaliation.
Iran has promised a "crushing response" to any U.S. or Israeli attack. Ironically, Iran doesn't have the nuclear weapons to scare off attackers, but it does have other options, with ground forces estimated at 800,000 personnel, as well as long-range missiles capable of hitting Israel and Europe.
Also much of the world's oil supply is transported through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow stretch of ocean which Iran borders to the north. Why was shut down?


Add the Chinese element of which this AlJazeera-article does not speak and then wonder why Belgian and David Linkley went fishing.

TownCrier (2/16/06; 16:22:07MT - msg#: 141705)
Snow hints at China currency manipulation,_i_rssPage=1f523ef0-c7eb-11d7-81c6-0820abe49a01.html
(FT) February 16 2006 –
...Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, said he was not concerned about China's large build up of foreign reserve assets, largely held in dollars, which are forecast to rise above $1,000bn this year as China intervenes to prevent its currency from rising, arguing that the US government debt markets are deep and liquid and that securities are largely in the hands of private investors.

This may have been a post of mine of February 17:

And China urges diplomacy – How come?
Qin Gang, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, told a regular news briefing that "we're extremely concerned about the status of the Iranian nuclear issue".

He said: "It's extremely important for the international community to uphold the consensus on resolving the Iran nuclear issue through diplomatic means and call on the related parties to maintain calm, restraint and patience.
An Analysis of Recent Moves By China Which May Signal Intentions To Invade Russia
By Mark W. Hughes
Infoshop News
February 15, 2006
… China is now poised to move much of its currency reserves away from dollars and into other currencies, including the euro, and into commodities purchases -- predominantly oil.
Now that China is diversifying their currency holdings into euros and other currencies, they can do significant damage to both the U.S. and Japan's economies. By dumping their dollars and Treasury bills, they can send the value of the dollar spiraling downward and seriously weaken confidence in Treasury bills and perhaps spur a dumping of those bills by other nations such as Japan and Saudi Arabia. Interest rates will shoot skyward, property values will soar, inflation will take hold, and the U.S. economy will screech to a halt, …
The danger for China is that the U.S. might take military action against Iran, but if these events are properly timed by China then the economic maneuver of dumping dollars and Treasury bills and the switch to euros by Iran and other OPEC members could blunt any U.S. attempt to get into a costly military confrontation

Got gold? Yes, somebody drew my attention at this Table to the fact that China is no warmonger. That may be true, but even if it doesn't go to war, China may sell the TBs and switch its reserves to euro.

ericwhy was shut down?#1420543/2/06; 05:34:06

Has been shut down?

I can access the site without any problem, from the UK. Am I missing something?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Put a Solid Foundation Under Your Portfolio#1420553/2/06; 11:18:41

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mikalChart#1420563/2/06; 11:19:56

Gold Spot U.S.$(5 day)
YGMHi Ho Silver Away!#1420573/2/06; 11:32:49

$10.14....Nice up day for poor man's Gold.
GoldiloxBill Clinton advises Dubai as Hillary attacks its US ports deal#1420583/2/06; 12:30:13


Former president Bill Clinton has privately advised Dubai officials how to address US political concerns over a controversial ports deal, as his wife, Senator Hillary Clinton, publicly attacks the deal.

Dubai Ports World bid to takeover Britain's P and O, which runs terminal operations at six major US ports, has triggered a political firestorm in the United States.

Senator Clinton has voiced vigorous opposition to the 5.7-billion-euro (6.8-billion-dollar) takeover, saying it threatens US national security.

She is attempting to push legislation through Congress that seeks to block the deal, partly on the grounds that DP World is foreign-government owned.

Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported Thursday her husband -- who it said was paid 300,000 dollars in 2002 to address a summit in Dubai -- has advised Dubai officials how to soothe US concerns over the deal.

"Mr. Clinton, who this week called the United Arab Emirates a 'good ally to America,' advised Dubai's leaders to propose a 45-day delay to allow for an intensive investigation of the acquisition," the FT said, citing a spokesman for the ex president.

DP World has agreed with the White House to undertake a more lengthy review process of the deal, despite already received government approval for it to proceed.

The takeover would see DP World run ports at Baltimore, Miami, New Jersey, New Orleans, New York and Philadelphia.

A court in London was due to give a ruling on Wednesday on the legality of DP World's takeover of the Peninsular and Oriental Steam Navigation Co.


Done deal? Off-topic, perhaps, but then again . . .

TownCrierGold rises, U.S. dollar/bonds pounded as ECB raises rates#1420593/2/06; 13:02:43

(Excerpts of press conference, opening remarks)

Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB, 2 March 2006

Ladies and gentlemen, let me welcome you to our press conference and report on the outcome of today's meeting of the ECB's Governing Council...

At today's meeting, we decided to increase the key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points... [now at 2.5%]

In the short run, inflation rates are likely to remain at above 2%, with the precise levels depending strongly on future energy price developments, which have recently been relatively volatile.

Beyond the short term, changes in administered prices and indirect taxes are expected to significantly affect inflation in 2006 and 2007, and an upward impact can also be expected from the indirect effects of past oil price increases.

At the same time, wage dynamics in the euro area have remained moderate over the recent past; our working assumption is that this will continue to be the case, due not least to strong global competitive pressures, particularly in the manufacturing sector.

Moderate wage trends have helped to contain domestic inflationary pressure despite strong oil price increases. Therefore, looking ahead, it is crucial that the social partners continue to meet their responsibilities in this regard, also in the context of a more favourable economic environment...

Risks to the outlook for price developments remain on the upside and include further increases in oil prices, a stronger pass-through of oil price rises into consumer prices than currently anticipated, additional increases in administered prices and indirect taxes, and -- more fundamentally -- stronger wage and price developments than expected due to second-round effects of past oil price increases.

Turning to the monetary analysis, the Governing Council has again discussed the assessment of monetary developments in depth. The annual growth rate of M3 remains robust, notwithstanding signs of a resumption of the unwinding of past portfolio shifts into monetary assets, which exerts a dampening effect on headline M3 growth.

Looking through the short-term effects generated by such portfolio behaviour, the trend rate of monetary expansion remains strong, reflecting the stimulative impact of the low level of interest rates...

To sum up, annual inflation rates are projected to remain elevated in 2006 and 2007... An adjustment of interest rates was therefore warranted...

Q&A to follow

---(from url)---

Upon new sentiment of euro strength the U.S. dollar plunged, and a key phenomenon here is that gold (as priced in euros) experienced a 3-euro-per-ounce plunge that only lasted less than two hours, and is now in fact one-euro higher than where it began. (And the dollar-price of gold is considerably higher.)

Gold is clearly flexing its muscles as viewed through ANY currency.


GoldiloxStrikes shut most Mexican mines#1420603/2/06; 13:16:04


MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexican miners taking part in a nationwide wildcat strike showed the first signs of wavering on Thursday, with workers at the world's largest silver mine ending their stoppage.

Union members at the Fresnillo mine decided late on Wednesday to reopen and most were back at work on Thursday, Penoles spokesman Luis Rey Delgado said.

But other major Mexican mines, refineries and steel mills stayed shut on Thursday as workers held firm in support of their beleaguered union leader.

Mexico's mining industry has been in turmoil since an explosion at a coal mine owned by Grupo Mexico in northern Mexico killed 65 men last week.

Union head Napoleon Gomez said Grupo Mexico had ignored safety fears and called the explosion "industrial homicide." Gomez already faced a leadership challenge inside the union and accuses the government and top mining companies of backing his rival.

Grupo Mexico denies negligence and says the union had given the mine the all-clear on safety issues before the disaster.


The "risks" of mining, especially in less stable environments, but "back to work" doesn't seem to have affected the silver price much.

TownCrierStudents take Freeport protests nationwide#1420613/2/06; 13:57:57

The Jakarta Post, March 03, 2006 -- Anger at PT Freeport Indonesia continued Wednesday, with protesters demanding the closure of the company's mine in Papua over allegations Freeport was stealing the wealth of Papuans and degrading the environment.

Papuan students demonstrated in three cities -- Makassar in South Sulawesi, Semarang in Central Java and Jakarta.

Fransiscus Kekey, read out the students' demands...

Kekey accused Freeport of failing to improve the welfare of Papuans during its 39-year operation in the province.

Papua's natural resources have been exploited for the benefit of the company, while the people of Papua have been abandoned to poverty, he said.

"Freeport just steals the wealth of the Papuan people, without doing anything to improve their welfare," he said.

He claimed Freeport had posted profits of US$494 million in 2003, up from $398.5 million in 2002, but only between 1.3 and 1.6 percent of that money had gone to the Indonesian government.

^---(from url)--^

Social movements and nationalization of natural resources should never be far from your mind when you consider investing in shares of a sitting duck.


TownCrierGold fingered -- An unexpected discovery may help explain how old arthritis drugs work#1420623/2/06; 14:10:01

Journalists wishing to hype a medical discovery often reach for the cliché "silver bullet". Well, here is a story where the bullets are made of gold and platinum, as well...

^---(from url)---^

For medical purposes, I can only hope that a little goes a long way because gold is on its way to becoming prohibitively expensive for any use beyond that to which it is best suited -- that being, the physical manifestation of wealth itself. The supreme asset of savers worldwide and through time. (It's nice to know, despite our many cultural differences, that we humans can all generally agree at least upon this one thing!)


mikalRe: Labor#1420633/2/06; 14:11:33

I see the reuters story of miner's agreements came out just minutes from the Comex close, not nearly enough time to impact trading there. But story's such as this pale
next to the big picture of supply/demand and other factors extending beyond short term.
Copper and base metals action said to influence
silver in London, could as industrial metals, correct on word of partial or complete labor agreements, on a crashing stock market, or any significant recessionary scare. IMO, NIA

TownCrierHats off to today's release of the new $10 note with the golden hue#1420643/2/06; 15:08:10

Click url to see front and back 'mug shots' of the newest traveler to join the wallet tour.

Frankly, I like it -- it spends.


TownCrierGet 'interactive' with the new Ten#1420653/2/06; 15:19:41

Consider this a public service announcement.

On a related note, it's a fine time to reiterate what I've been saying for years: paper/money nicely serves the purpose of borrowing and spending, and that's where it rationally ends. To serve the purpose of meaningful savings, this is where physical gold comes in to do the job like nothing else can.

It's amazing how challenging it can be for some folks to find and strike the right balance.


HenriInvisible Hand msg 142053#1420663/2/06; 15:22:48

Perhaps some of China's predilection to a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear enrichment issue is that China receives about 1/3 of its oil imports directly from Iran.

I thought the nuclear proliferation issue was contained with the Iranian agreement to allow Russia to perform all enrichment and reprocessing services.

This was a prudent diplomatic move by there should be no "proliferation" issues and any attack on Iran now would clearly be ONLY due to the opening of the oil for euros bourse and an obviously global imperialist strongarm move by the US or its stepchildren

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1420673/2/06; 15:43:13">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

THURSDAY Market Excerpts

March 2 (from DowJones, MarketWatch) -- A strong rally in silver today helped to prop up the gold market that settled up $4.60 at $570.40, basis the most-active April contract.

Looking to the end of the week, some analysts wondered if the yellow metal will take back the lead and attempt to re-challenge the $575 an ounce level.

Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, said generally weak U.S. economic data and declining stock prices are a signal of "troubling signs", which could portend even more significant moves in the days and weeks ahead for the precious metals complex.

Overall, "gold has worked its way out of the recent congestion zone and made a mini-break back towards higher values with each trading session since Monday," said Kitco's investment products analyst Jon Nadler.

Tension surrounding Iran's nuclear research appears to be worsening.

"Tehran's own silence this week ... left strategic analysts with but one conclusion: it's looking like either sanctions or a pre-emptive clean-up strike against enrichment plants in Iran might be the solution left," said Nadler.

From here, gold has the potential to move towards $600 in the next several months, said Emanuel Balarie, a senior market strategist at Wisdom Financial. He thinks that the U.S. dollar rally that we experienced in the last year will likely come to an end.

"As we see a continual sell off of the U.S. dollar, I would expect sellers to flock to other currencies and gold," he said.

Adding to the likelihood of $600 in the next several months: the Bank of China reported that it will cut the spread on gold trading by up to 20%, said Balarie, adding that this will run on a trial basis until May 27.

Given that, he expects an "influx of gold buying to enter the market and more importantly, "this reaffirms the fact that China realizes the value of gold ownership -- both for its central banks and its citizens," he said.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

TownCrierJanuary 25th I pointed to Germany's Merkel hinting for a new mission for the IMF...#1420683/2/06; 16:00:26

...and here we now see UK's Brown and King doing similar.

HEADLINE:UK's Brown says IMF aims need updating

(March 03, 2006) -- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) needs to refocus its goals in order to reflect the changing world economy, British Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown said on Tuesday. "I suggest the IMF should be updated to reflect the global economy," said Brown, who holds the chair of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, the IMF's main steering group.

"Just as we made the Bank of England independent in Britain, Britain will make proposals for the IMF to sponsor independent and transparent surveillance of national fiscal and monetary policies."

His comments echo Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King, who said the IMF must urgently reassess its purpose and needs more focus, independence and legitimacy if it is not to pass into obscurity.

[Additionally]...Speaking to a financial markets conference, Brown also said he was listening carefully to calls from UK bond dealers and investors for more long-dated debt. ... Strong demand for long-dated government bonds, in particular from pension funds keen to match long-term liabilities with safe long-dated assets, has pushed yields down to touch record lows this year and sucked liquidity out of the market. Dealers and investors have thus urged the government to skew issuance in the next fiscal year towards the long end of the gilt curve.

^---(from url)---^

As I said with respect to Merkel's more oblique comments (she diplomatically did not make outright mention of passing into "obscurity"), (TownCrier msg#: 140878 snip from Jan 25):

"It seems to me somewhat significant that she singles out the Bretton Woods institutions by name. It is almost as though an attempt to address an undercurrent of everybody's thought that the IMF is being effectively washed out as a monetary institution, and she is therefore suggesting a means for the institution and its thousands of employees to evolve gracefully into a new (non-monetary) mission instead of fighting the demise of the old Dollar Standard every step of the way as though their jobs depended on it.

"When officials are publicly proposing such an obvious 'mission creep' for an old institution's order of business, you can reasonably expect that the environment has already been changed in such a way to render them obsolete 'as is'."

And with the passage of time and new news as we have today, we can see that there is every reason to continue to stand behind that early expression of viewpoint.


ToolieThe new $10 bill#1420693/2/06; 17:04:34

If the truth be known.
TownCrierGold up again, weakening housing market#1420703/2/06; 17:10:52

March 2, 2006 -- Rallying global gold prices have pushed up prices in Vietnam, hurting the domestic housing market and those who took out loans in gold.

The price fluctuation brought several deals on the realty market to a standstill, as gold is the traditional currency used in housing transactions.

...Mrs. H from HCMC's Binh Thanh District said in January this year she made a deposit of five taels of SJC gold for a house costing 200 taels in Phu Nhuan District.

But when she had to pay the balance due Feb 7, gold surged to VND10.74 million/tael over January's price so she cancelled the deal – forfeiting the deposit.

A seller, Mr. Loc from District 10, said he set a price of 105 taels of gold for his house but never inked a deal in three months. He then advertised his house again but in Vietnamese dong and finally sold it for a sum equaling 97 taels of gold.

...most people who borrowed gold from banks to buy houses or do business are losing to rallying gold prices.

There are nine banks in HCMC currently mobilizing capital and providing loans in gold. To prevent customers from losses and risks due to gold prices, these banks have offered borrowers a chance to transfer their debt into Vietnamese dong instead of gold.

Nguyen Thi Hai, director of ACB Transaction Office, said, "Gold borrowers can transfer their debt into Vietnamese dong when gold price exceeds VND10 million per tael.".

^---(see full article at url)---^

This one was emailed to me by a friend. It's a good article in that it points up one of the problems that arise when one confuses the specific utility of gold with the uniquely different utility of money (as is generally represented by a national currency).

Having gaffed this distinction, it's nice to see the banks there are at least taking some sophisticated hedging maneuvers to help get their current lot of gold borrowers off the hook under this very serious landscape of gold prices rising significantly in reaction to the ongoing evolution toward the freegold MTM reserve paradigm for the International Monetary System.

Money, being nothing else, simply measures any given snapshot value and lubricates/facitlitates the transactions. Gold simply IS wealth, and therefore is the highly suitable choice for use as savings -- as the consolidation of excess money.


TownCrierToolie, the new $10#1420713/2/06; 17:12:11


Thanks for the best smile of the day.


ToolieTownCrier (3/2/06; 16:00:26MT - msg#: 142068)#1420723/2/06; 17:21:31


I recall reading your January message and just not getting it. You've made a very good and correct (IMHO) observation. Thanks for putting a finer point on it.

GoldiloxNew Bills#1420733/2/06; 18:17:29

It's interesting that on the new bills the watermark photo of Grant is the same, but Hamilton and Jackson are definitely not.

Anyone know who the faces on those photos are?

PRITCHOThe "New" US $10 Note - - - - - It's More Than A Bit Ironic #1420743/2/06; 18:29:25

-- that at the same time the new note is issued SILVER crashes the party & closes at US$10.20 ! A message there?
As Richard Russell notes its also at a 20 year high. Thats not adjusted for inflation so it's still cheeep:)

ToolieFrom the Times of India...#1420753/2/06; 18:40:14,curpg-1.cms

Snip: When a bad king of yore 'debased' his currency by mixing some 'base' metal with the gold in his coins, he and the officials of his royal mint acted as counterfeiters.

The 'false' coins were then used to take over 'real' properties of his subjects, and finance his banquets, palaces and wars. The same is done with currency notes by modern-day governments, but the process is far more insidious.
Thus, all the governments of the world today use 'false' money to take over 'real' resources. In effect, then, all the governments in the world are guilty of acting in the manner of counterfeiters.

All the currency notes issued in the world today are 'property titles without property'. As this false money pervades the global market, the rich get richer while the poor get poorer.

The immediate effect of currency debasement is that those who first get to use the 'new money' buy up resources at current prices.

First users of the 'new money' are politicians, bureaucrats, government contractors and those 'crony' businessmen who get generous loans from banks. Those who lose most are those who get to use the notes last: The poor, and those who save.
The world economy is headed towards a monetary crisis as the lead counterfeiter, the US Fed, becomes unable to cope with its 'twin deficits': A huge fiscal deficit combined with a huge trade deficit.

This time, the blame should not fall on markets and speculators, the blame should fall squarely on central bankers. As we inch towards global capitalism, we need to ditch the false ideas that created central banking (and the IMF). Then only can a true capitalism arise and leftists be put permanently in their place. (end article)

I've a buddy doin’ some work for one of those alternative energy plants that Bush just visited. He say's: Toolie, it's real nice workin’ there it's like the automotive biz was 15 years ago. Ya put in a good day's work and that is enough. Ya don't have a boss behind ya doin’ his best imitation of a five year old on vacation – are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?
This company is still in business only because of federal grant dollars – it doesn't make a profit.

The above article describes the mechanism that enables ‘management’ of our ‘free economy’.
Our trade deficit is only possible with this mechanism (theft, counterfeiting, fraud) in place. In such an environment the only ‘productive, internationally tradable labor’ that is possible (in the US) is that which is subsidized – as US labor must not only compete with foreign labor, it must also compete with the counterfeiter. As the US dollar is the ‘global currency’, all other nations MUST arrange their economies to acquire dollars – foreign countries will always be cheaper to produce in until the dollar looses the illusion of holding value – it will.

If you've found yourself on the receiving end of a pink slip wile those that ‘produce’ little prosper. Consider using your opponent's momentum to your advantage. Start a stash of physical gold coins, and prosper as this fraud finds fewer and fewer suckers. Global trade must have a global standard of value it will not be a currency that can be issued and manipulated by a single country – the market will have its way and the market will choose gold.

GoldiloxMensa Contest#1420763/2/06; 18:50:58

The Washington Post's Mensa Invitational once again asked readers to take any word from the dictionary, alter it by adding, subtracting, or changing of one letter, and supply a new definition.

Here are this year's {2005} winners:

1. Cashtration (n.): The act of buying a house, which renders the subject financially impotent for an indefinite period.

2. Ignoranus: A person who's both stupid and an asshole.

3. Intaxication: Euphoria at getting a tax refund, which lasts until you realize it was your money to start with.

4. Reintarnation: Coming back to life as a hillbilly.

5. Bozone (n.): The substance surrounding stupid people that stops bright ideas from penetrating. The bozone layer, unfortunately, shows little sign of breaking down in the near future.

6. Foreploy: Any misrepresentation about yourself for the purpose of getting laid.

7. Giraffiti: Vandalism spray-painted very, very high.

8. Sarchasm: The gulf between the author of sarcastic wit and the person who doesn't get it.

9. Inoculatte: To take coffee intravenously when you are running late.

10. Hipatitis: Terminal coolness.

11. Osteopornosis: A degenerate disease (This one got extra credit).

12. Karmageddon: It's like, when everybody is sending off all these really bad vibes, right? And then, like, the Earth explodes and it's like, a serious bummer.

13. Decafalon (n.): The grueling event of getting through the day consuming only things that are good for you.

14. Glibido: All talk and no action.

15. Dopeler effect: The tendency of stupid ideas to seem smarter when they come at you rapidly.

16. Arachnoleptic fit (n.): The frantic dance performed just after you've accidentally walked through a spider web.

17. Beelzebug (n.): Satan in the form of a mosquito, that gets into your bedroom at three in the morning and cannot be cast out.

18. Caterpallor (n.): The color you turn after finding half a worm in the fruit you're eating.


Off-topic, but a couple good financial references and a great laugh to end the day.

Number 13 needs to be changed to "decaphalon" to avoid disqualification.

ToolieHarry Browne, Libertarian candidate, dies#1420773/2/06; 18:52:57

Snip: FRANKLIN, Tenn., March 2 (UPI) -- Harry Browne, a two-time Libertarian Party candidate for U.S. president, has died at the age of 72.
He was a well-known motivational speaker and the author of 12 books, including "How I Found Freedom in an Unfree World," "Why Government Doesn't Work" and "The Great Libertarian Offer." He also founded, a group aimed at reducing the size of government, a basic tenet of the Libertarian Party. (end snip)

RIP Harry

The Invisible HandEric,; 19:14:55

I should be more careful when pasting and copying.
The phrase "Has been shut down?" was the original draft title of my message

The Invisible Hand (3/1/06; 20:35:29MT - msg#: 142049)
Why was discontinued?
A blog especially dedicated to the subject of the [Iranian] oil exchange (oil bourse) ( was active in summer 2005 and posted several English-language

and was not included in the snipped article in my last post to which you reacted.

I had also been too fast while snipping in that msg#: 142049. Here's the full text of the sentence:
A blog especially dedicated to the subject of the oil exchange (oil bourse) ( was active in summer 2005 and posted several English-language interviews with Asemipur and Hoseyn Talebi, director of management information systems of the National Iranian Oil Company and member of specialized and technical committee of the oil exchange.

Again, my apologies for too much and too fastly snipping and copying. Who said again that man's distinctive capacity is that of thinking for himself, not of copying? But nobody said that Another's ideas are worthless.

PRITCHOFrom Jim Sinclair - -Today - - -He's GATA way with Words #1420793/3/06; 02:44:03

Isn't it amazing what difference a day and a Krona make?

In metals silver was king today as it moved into the uncharted territory of $10 to $10.90, where COT will get its chance to prove if they are real or not. Above $10.90 there is nothing until $15 to interfere with the arrival of the silver bull. With the Exchange Traded Fund and soon funds on silver combined with the energy situation these events do functionally reincarnate the Bunker and Herbert Hunt scenario. With Silver above $10.90 the sky is not the limit. Limit up move is.

Gold was no slacker in the fray. Keep in mind (to the horror of the silver traders) that gold is the currency and silver is the sizzle. The gold magnet is $612 and is pulling like hell on the mentally challenged to hire top callers and gleeful writers of gold slander.

KnallgoldGold mining giant formed in Russia#1420803/3/06; 06:34:02

Altough I cannot see why they would call it the world largest Goldminer.
mikalChinese holdings undergo scrutiny#1420813/3/06; 07:49:29;_ylt=AjBJqA.pwvV7ugBcyOWdsVSmOrgF;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--

China's forex reserves much too big, offer US cheap financing - Yahoo! News - AFP - Friday, March 3, 2006
"Chinese reserves should be cut by more than two-thrds from current levels"

GoldiloxGold Confiscation history#1420823/3/06; 08:10:32


Roosevelt's main rationalization for the gold seizure was the supposed need to centralize gold in the Treasury, as "backing" for FRNs internationally--because until 1971 FRNs remained redeemable in gold for foreign banks. Also, Roosevelt aimed at using the Treasury's near-monopoly on the legal ownership of gold to depreciate FRNs in terms of that metal (or, as the then-current euphemism had it, "to raise the price of gold"), so as to jack up the prices of all goods and services and thereby bootstrap the economy out of depression. As with Roosevelt's other economic nostrums, this monetary scheme proved to be snake oil, too.

Its ill effects aside, in the early 1930s a nationwide gold seizure was a not impractical operation: For much of We the People's gold found itself already inside the banks or the Treasury--owed to individuals outside, but simply never paid out, after Roosevelt's initial surprise decree froze it there. Roosevelt also ordered that individuals turn in to the banks for delivery to the Treasury all gold coin, gold bullion, and gold certificates in their possession. Yet, notwithstanding savage penalties for noncompliance--ten years' imprisonment and a $10,000 fine--only about 22% of the gold coin and 55% of the gold certificates in private hands were surrendered. And although a few well-publicized examples were made of individuals who refused to turn in their gold, Roosevelt shrank from launching a campaign of widespread house-to-house searches, or other police-state measures, in an attempt to rake in the rest.

Proving once again the impotence or fraudulence of "judicial review" when the Establishment's most importance interests are at stake, the Supreme Court never adjudicated--but instead intentionally evaded--the question of the unconstitutionality of the gold seizure (although most every law professor who has ever heard of, but no doubt never carefully studied, the Gold Clause Cases will probably say otherwise).

Moreover, no political repercussions ever embarrassed either Roosevelt or his puppet Congressmen. No movement to impeach him for laying waste the monetary system and further empowering the banks was launched. And the gold seizure never became an issue that threatened his serial re-election.

But what might happen if a new gold seizure were attempted today?


Dr. Edwin Vierra discusses the history and potential of another bankster-politico gold confiscation. Good read.

GoldiloxA timely tale#1420833/3/06; 08:19:10

From my email:

A boat docked in a tiny Mexican village. An American tourist complimented the Mexican fisherman on the quality of his fish and asked how long it took him to catch them.

"Not very long," answered the Mexican.

"But then, why didn't you stay out longer and catch more?" asked the American.

The Mexican explained that his small catch was sufficient to meet his needs and those of his family.

The American asked, "But what do you do with the rest of your time?"

"I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, and take a siesta with my wife. In the evenings, I go into the village to see my friends, play the guitar, and sing a few songs...I have a full life."

The American interrupted, "I have an MBA from Harvard, and I can help you!

You should start by fishing longer every day. You can then sell the extra fish you catch. With the extra revenue, you can buy a bigger boat."

"And after that?" asked the Mexican.

"With the extra money the larger boat will bring, you can buy a second one and a third one and so on until you have an entire fleet of trawlers. Instead of selling your fish to a middle man, you can then negotiate directly with the processing plants and maybe even open your own plant. You can then leave this little village and move to Mexico City, Los Angeles, or even New York City! From there you can direct your huge new enterprise."

"How long would that take?" asked the Mexican.

"Twenty, perhaps twenty-five years," replied the American.

"And after that?"

"Afterwards? Well my Friend, That's when it gets really interesting," answered the American, laughing. "When your business gets really big, you can start selling stocks and make millions!"

"Millions? Really? And after that?" said the Mexican.

"After that you'll be able to retire, live in a tiny village near the
coast, sleep late, play with your children, catch a few fish, take a
siesta with your wife and spend your evenings doing what you like and
enjoying your friends."

The moral: Pay attention to your journeys, and you may find you are already at your destination.

GoldiloxGold in the WTC?#1420843/3/06; 08:36:56


That's a mighty serious charge, but nevertheless, a group of experts this week has raised the question and is demanding release of information they claim would directly tie the Bush administration directly to the events of 9/11. Here are some portion of their news release:
A society of experts and scholars has now joined with Judicial Watch in calling for release of videos that are being held by the Department of Defense, which are essential to understanding events at the Pentagon that transpired on September 11, 2001. Scholars for 9/11 Truth, which is dedicated to exposing falsehoods and establishing truths about the events of 9/11, has gone beyond Judicial Watch by calling for the release of other films and evidence that, its officers maintain, are essential to understanding 9/11.
According to Professor Fetzer, the SEC possesses knowledge of "put options" on American and United Airlines, which are suggestive of advanced knowledge that the attacks would take place; Secretary of Transportation Norman Mineta gave very important testimony to The 9/11 Commission, which it chose not to include in its report; and the Secret Service conducted itself in a manner suggesting that it knew there was no serious threat to the President, even following the attacks in New York, while the Commander-in-Chief ignored the unfolding drama.

"We are inclined to believe that these events were orchestrated by the Bush administration in order to instill fear in the American people," Fetzer said. "The use of violence and threats of violence to manipulate a populace based on fear," he observed, "is the definition of terrorism. The release of this vital evidence will help to confirm or to dispel our concerns about what happened on 9/11." Added Wood, "The American people are entitled to know the truth about their own history. If the government has nothing to hide, it should have no objections to releasing all this evidence for experts and scholars to study."

We note that "Judicial Watch has filed a lawsuit demanding that DoD release its film footage. " However, I need to remind you that with a largely Bush-picked High Court, it seems unlikely that the release of facts will come in our lifetime. We see a parallel here to the role of John Kennedy's attempt to reassert actual Federal government control of the currency from the misnamed Federal Reserve - which is neither - will stay largely out - or incorrectly written in the history books.

Let me venture into speculation for a moment: Looking at things from a purely pragmatic standpoint (or as close as I can figure), I have to wonder what happened to all the gold that was supposed to be in the basement vaults of WTC.

Consider the management decision if you knew that certain revelations were about to become public around the time of 9/11 that held something like a 99% chance that they would crash the stock and bond markets, destroying America (as one might envision being a potential outcome of no 9/11 and a crooked/rigged market and massive theft of assets), what would your call be if you were in the hot seat, and you could have a hand in deciding? Think about it: $6-trillion (or more) of GDP going forward with events of 9/11 or literally "game over" by now for the US financial system if the depths of deception came out: How would you play it? We note that mainstream media has managed to bury the naked-short selling story and ask "What else is being held in check?"

Look: I know this is almost too horrific a thought to wrap your head around, especially on a Friday, but if you were looking at a collapse of the US economy scenario, devolving into civil war, the end of America as a world power, what would be the "right" thing to do? What would the Constitution mandate you do?


George is extending himself this morning, even asking where the WTC gold got to after the "attack", or demolition, as some experts still maintain.

Gandalf the WhiteWarning --- Cover your ears !#1420853/3/06; 09:42:30


$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

At the request of SIR MK, USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the APRIL, 2006 Comex contract (GCJ06) on Wednesday, March 15, 2006, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, March 12, 2006, AND ALL ENTRIES must answer SIR MK's QUESTIONS !!

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive an uncirculated Mexician 10 Peso GOLDPIECE which contains Actual Gold Content of 0.2411 fine ozs of GOLD.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce pure Silver U.S. Eagle.

The QUESTIONS -- (actually two Questions) <;-) --
(Put on your THINKING HATS !)

The questions are, -- "Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2006 Gold Contract (GCJ06) on the date of Wednesday, March 15, 2006.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $567.8)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $567.8 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on: Sunday, March 12, 2006.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)

--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph (more or less) discussing;
LET the CONTEST begin !

SmeagolWhew!#1420873/3/06; 10:24:00

We thanks you, and our earses thanks you, O Wizard! ~8-)

It has been awhile sionce the Contesst-Horn has sounded. We will get to work on the Quesstions!


Flatliner$$$$$ $583.4 $$$$$$$#1420883/3/06; 10:39:39

THE QUESTIONS: Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way?

I might be a little to black and white to give a straight answer here, but I would have to say – no – gold is not at a turning point. Interest in gold will continue to grow in the coming days, weeks and months as people learn how to preserve their wealth.

*But* the "Ides of March" is a political warning meant for the ruler rather then for the independent element gold. All one has to do is look around to see that our new Caesar is trapped by the international community with only one way out. As people figure out Caesar's plans for the money supply, they will actively look for ways to get out of the dollar carry trade. This change in perception with regards to the value of dollars will set in motion the largest move towards physical assets the world has ever seen. The change though, will sneak up on the general population catching many unprepared. Fortunately, those that read this forum (and like forums) will be ahead of the stampede and already comfortable quietly watching from the sidelines.

I see it that the psychology of gold will not change, but rather, the psychology of the dollar will or how people view the dollar will change.

geSouth African gold production fell 13,3% in 2005#1420893/3/06; 12:15:41

Rocky$$$$565.0$$$$#1420913/3/06; 14:30:02

"Ides" in Latin means to divide or to signify the middle of the month. In early calendars, the Ides signified the 15th day of March, May, July and October. In the other months of the calendar, the Ides signified the 13th day.

In 44 B.C.E., the astrologer Spurrina warned "Beware the Ides of March", and on the 15th that fateful day did come with great danger to one about whom we have heard through Shakespeare.

But, to the rest of us, is it superstitious nonsense? - - - Yes, however, on the "Ides" in March 2006 there could be a psychologically significant turning point for gold. I have no sound basis for that statement, but let us be mystical about it and "Beware the Ides of March".

spikedogGoldilox - A timely tale#1420923/3/06; 15:39:32

Very timely indeed. LOL. Thank you.
Beamer$$$$$ $750.0 $$$$$$#1420933/3/06; 16:07:46

Beware the Ides of March was a warning omen by a sooth-sayer to Julius Caesar in William Shakespeares's famous play titled 'Julius Caesar'. Sir MK brought us the question and it could very well be an omen that could have a tremendous impact on the price of gold. The psychological impact of troop movement into the Middle East at around this time period could very well announce an escalation of an on-going crisis that may draw into its web the 'Great Nations' of the world. Peace is required, first and foremost but I would certainly be very aware of the 'Ides of March'.
USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1420943/3/06; 16:16:53">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

FRIDAY Market Excerpts

Gold down on day, up 1.2% on week

March 3 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold prices retreated from a one-month high but ended the week up over 1%, as investors and traders continued to rely on the precious metal as a refuge from market uncertainty.

COMEX April gold futures climbed as high as $571, the highest level since Feb. 6, but the contract closed down $2.40 at $568. It's up 1.2% for the week, however, after closing last week at $561.20.

"Gold should find temporary resistance around $572 but a re-test of January's $575 high now appears imminent with resistance above now expected at $578/$582," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk, in a note to clients.

Overall, "the gold market has been looking for fresh impetus to take it decisively past the $570-$575 mark," said Kitco's Jon Nadler.

"To say that there is an abundance of potential factors that could indeed drive the market higher is to understate conditions," he said, pointing out that some people have been reluctant to label the situation in Iraq as a "civil war" despite the death of around 500 people in one week's time.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

mikalGold#1420953/3/06; 20:12:54

If gold's generational, secular market manifestation continues to overlap more and more elements of life, then a steady stream of various changing geopolitical, economic, social, financial, environmental, climatological and other circumstances, will always arise. Reported and unreported, with growing investment impact into uncountable, inummerable reasons that mitigate potential negative factors like yen carry trade unwinding. This unwinding attributed to the end of easy money/low rate CB policy theoretically and initially tarnishes gold's appeal to holders of strenghtening yen,
but soon by sentiment change feeds gold demand.
Or just as a potential or short term sell off of PM stocks or funds may occur when overleveraged bond or equity trades go wrong, does little or nothing to affect the bull and ends up creating more demand for PM's.

tejbearGoldilox msg# 142084#1420963/4/06; 08:19:03


For sure, the 9/11 attack on the WTC raises questions, but with second hand sources, spin masters and media whores, the available information on the WTC somewhat questionable.

However, take a look at the pictures of the pentagon. If a huge Boeing 757 crashes into the side of the pentagon, one would expect evidence of a huge fire and wreckage scatter everywhere. Yet every photo I have seen shows neither. Interestingly enough, the "jet" just also happens to hit an un-occupied area of the Pentagon under construction….

The attached website is called "Find the missing Boeing" which poses several good questions. But as you might imagine, there are a number of groups claiming that anyone who believes that a 757 did not hit the Pentagon is either uniformed or a dumb s - -t. But the problems remains, where is the wreckage? DO YOU BELIEVE YOUR OWN EYES, or do you believe what the Orwellian double speakers???

If a jet, fully loaded with JP4 hit the side of the building, the fire would have lasted a long time and burned everything in contact. Yet pictures available at other websites show unburned chairs, computer monitors, etc. Pictures of the Pentagon's wall prior to collapsing, show intact windows & minimal wall damage, and again, without the wreckage.

Another website I reviewed had pictures of the jet's engine & landing gear inside the Pentagon's interior. Only the jet engine was the "wrong" kind. And how did a landing gear get into the Pentagon? Did the wing fold up and follow the fuselage into the building? This physics just strikes me as the being wrong…

If after researching the photos, you too can't identify where the wreckage is, then you have to ask the next question, what is really going on? Remember, the key is the 757. It really doesn't matter if a smaller jet or maybe a missile hit the Pentagon. That fact is, if it wasn't hit by a 757, then the entire Pentagon story is a another lie, just like the inflation numbers, "yellow cake", Iraq's participation in the 9/11 attack, etc…

I will leave you to your own conclusions…

The Bear

Chris PowellHappy birthday, John Embry, and thanks for everything#1420973/4/06; 08:35:01

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GoldiloxQuestioning "authority"#1420983/4/06; 08:50:01

@ Bear,

Of course, since Kent State, the very idea of questioning authority, a fundamental necessity for maintaining freedom from tyrants, has been denigrated regularly. The fopunding fathers all had colonists who said they "shouldn't rock the boat." They were called "Tories", and regiularly turned in the rebels to Bristish "authorities", because after all, God made George the King, so his will should never be questioned.

Last night I ran into a paper on brainwaves, Shumann resonances, and HAARP. It seems, according to the authors, that the Shumann resonances, usually around 7.5 Hz, in the "alpha" brain state, have lately been shifted for the planet to 12-14 Hz, the 'beta" state, and brain research suggests that constant beta (no rest) state creates ADHD and other pyschologicallyissues.

Is one of HAARP's functions to interfere with cognitive dissent?



$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

At the request of SIR MK, USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the APRIL, 2006 Comex contract (GCJ06) on Wednesday, March 15, 2006, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, March 12, 2006, AND ALL ENTRIES must answer SIR MK's QUESTIONS !!

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive an uncirculated Mexician 10 Peso GOLDPIECE which contains Actual Gold Content of 0.2411 fine ozs of GOLD.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce pure Silver U.S. Eagle.

The QUESTIONS -- (actually two Questions) <;-) --
(Put on your THINKING HATS !)

The questions are, -- "Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2006 Gold Contract (GCJ06) on the date of Wednesday, March 15, 2006.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $567.8)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $567.8 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on: Sunday, March 12, 2006.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)

--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph (more or less) discussing;
LET the CONTEST continue !

Gandalf the WhiteTA TA TAAAAA, TA TA TAAAAA, taaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa#14210003/04/06; 11:19:10

The "Ides of March" POG CONTEST

Following are listed the EARLYBIRD entries !
Gandalf thanks you THREE for starting out the CONTEST with such GREAT answers to the QUESTIONS. <;-)

(Listed in order of DECREASING values)

$$$$ $750.0 $$$$ Beamer (3/3/06; 16:07:46MT - msg#: 142093)

$$$$ $583.4 $$$$ Flatliner (3/3/06; 10:39:39MT - msg#: 142088)

$$$$ $565.0 $$$$ Rocky (3/3/06; 14:30:02MT - msg#: 142091)

FYI, Gandy foresees an early entry, being the WINNER of the Mexican 10 Peso GOLDCOIN this CONTEST !
(Is that Lady Waverider I see, about to submit her entry ?)

Gandalf the White<;-)#14210103/04/06; 11:46:42$GOLD,PWTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

Do you think that possibly this chart had anything to do with the TIMING of the USAGOLD "POG Contest" ?
Naaa !

Beer Man$$$$$ 568.8 $$$$$#14210203/04/06; 12:17:16

As to the turning point ... I see mostly a slow drip drip kind of change to the up side ... it is always possible a bump in the road could change that to a flood .. RE: Beware the Ides of march ... I have noticed an almost virus kind of uneasyness in Many people in many areas ... as if some unseen bug has got under their skin & has made them feel something is wrong .. but they dont know what it is ..... one should only Beware if thay have failed to take Black Blades advice to cover their assets!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A world of gold at your fingertips, 24-seven.#14210303/04/06; 13:02:36">gold -- a global calling card
Ten BearsAmerica's Glorious Empire of Debt & The Gong Show#14210403/04/06; 14:44:33

Bill Bonner: America's Glorious Empire of Debt
>Economists, commentators, and policymakers take up these distortions and add their own twists. It is obvious to anyone who bothers to think about it that an economy that spends more than it earns is in decline. But try to find an economist willing to say so! They've all become like rich notables in the time of Trajan,

>Alan Greenspan and his fellow connivers not only urge citizens to mortgage their houses, buy SUVs, and commit other acts of wanton recklessness, they also control the nation's money and make sure that it plays along with the fraud.

>At the bottom of the empire are wage slaves squandering borrowed money on imported doodads. The plebes gamble on adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs). The patricians gamble on hedge funds that speculate on huge swaths of mortgage debt. Near the top are Fed economists urging them to do it! And at the very pinnacle is a chief executive, modeled after Augustus, who cuts taxes while increasing spending on bread, circuses, and peripheral wars. (It might be added that some of the biggest lies in the history of warfare were told to the American lumpen public to stir up support for the war against Iraq, but it hardly seems worth mentioning it.)

Don Stott: The Gong Show

>The CPI used to measure by adding subtracting and dividing, the way most people figure things. This was called 'arithmetic weightings.' That wasn't keeping the figures down enough, so the method was changed by BLS (Bureau of labor Statistics) to 'geometric weighting.' If something goes up in price, it automatically gets a lower weight, .

>When Dubya get elected, they came out with a C-CPI-U figure, which further makes the CPI figure absurd. The Social Security checks and payments are made on the basis of the CPI. They've got to keep it down, so they can screw the seniors, who worked and worked and worked to retire, and then get only a fraction of what they are supposed to get. According to one economist, if the CPI were figured as it was during the Jimmy Carter era, Social Security checks would be 70% higher! Obviously, there is no such thing as a "Social Security Trust Fund."

>Better get out of dollars, because those idiots who are performing on the D.C. stage, will eventually gong the entire U.S. economic system, and then we will have an economic dollar Armageddon.

Black BladeDollar Fall To Encourage Central Bank Cooperation#14210503/04/06; 16:15:11


HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--The world's central banks are likely to start working more closely together as they try to manage the impact of an expected long-term decline in the value of the U.S. dollar, said a former central banker who now advises the institutions.

"Just as the U.S. role as world superpower won't last forever, neither will the dollar's role as the world reserve currency," said John Nugee, director of the official institutions group at State Street Global Advisors. SSgA, an arm of State Street Corp. (STT), is the world's largest institutional money manager with US$1.4 trillion in assets under management.

But there are widespread concerns the U.S.' growing overseas indebtedness, reflected in a current account deficit of more than 6% of gross domestic product, is creating the risk of a sharp correction in the nearer term. If foreign investors become less enthusiastic about continuing to add to their dollar holdings, that lack of demand could quickly depress the currency.

Friday March 3, 4:17 PM
INTERVIEW: Dollar Fall To Encourage Ctrl Bk Cooperation
By Andrew Batson



HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--The world's central banks are likely to start working more closely together as they try to manage the impact of an expected long-term decline in the value of the U.S. dollar, said a former central banker who now advises the institutions.

"Just as the U.S. role as world superpower won't last forever, neither will the dollar's role as the world reserve currency," said John Nugee, director of the official institutions group at State Street Global Advisors. SSgA, an arm of State Street Corp. (STT), is the world's largest institutional money manager with US$1.4 trillion in assets under management.

Former superpowers like the U.K., France, Spain and Holland also saw the value of their currency slip as they lost prominence on the global stage, and the U.S. is unlikely to prove an exception to this historical pattern, Nugee said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires.

Central banks are particularly interested in such longer-term trends because they invest to maintain the solvency of their nations, he said.

Nugee said he is expecting a gradual shift in the dollar's role over the next 25 years or so, rather than forecasting short-term trends in the market. Nugee's division serves government agencies, central banks and international institutions, and he himself previously helped manage foreign reserves for the Bank of England.

But there are widespread concerns the U.S.' growing overseas indebtedness, reflected in a current account deficit of more than 6% of gross domestic product, is creating the risk of a sharp correction in the nearer term. If foreign investors become less enthusiastic about continuing to add to their dollar holdings, that lack of demand could quickly depress the currency.

The dilemma that central banks face is that any move to reduce their exposure to a declining dollar would only accelerate that decline, further pushing down the value of their existing holdings.

This isn't a trivial problem: the International Monetary Fund estimates that U.S. dollars account for 66% of combined global foreign exchanges - that is, the portion of reserves whose currency holdings are known. The euro came second with a weighting of 24%, while holdings of the Japanese yen and British pound were each just under 4% of the total.

"Central banks will only solve their dollar overhang if they act together. If they try to act individually, to diversify while hoping no one else will notice, there's a possibility it could become as disorderly as the gold market after 1980," when central bank sales helped trigger years of declining prices for the metal, he said.

"The lesson of the gold market is that it's a very difficult thing to do without coordinated action," Nugee said. He alluded to the Central Bank Agreement on Gold of 1999, when several major central banks tried to stabilize the declining gold market by publicly pledging to limit sales from their gold reserves.

The issue is particularly acute in Asia, as economies in this region make up seven of the world's 10 largest holders of foreign exchange reserves, according to figures compiled by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which is itself No. 7 on the list. Japan and China are the top two holders, with Taiwan, South Korea, India, and Singapore also placing in the top 10.

Black Blade: An interesting read. This only confirms much of what I and others here have been saying for some time. It is refreshing (sort of) that an insider is coming clean on the inevitable decline of the US dollar. The "twin deficits" and rising current account deficits are over-powering for the US dollar and this decline will continue unabated. Consider that major high net-worth investors like Warren Buffett, George Soros,Bill Gates, etc. are betting against the dollar in a very big way. These guys simply do not base their investment decisions on gut instinct but on clear evidence.

It has also been known (and long rumored) that major Asian central banks have been slowly adding gold to reserves hoping no one would notice. The Peoples Bank of China has been playing this game for the last few years and we will probably never know the extent of their "true" gold reserves. Other Asian central bankers such as those in Singapore, South Korea, and the Philippines (among others)have been actively building gold reserve assets. The transfer of wealth in terms of gold from west to east continues. It is rumored that China is the major buyer of the Swiss gold sales, has been the major buyer of Gordon Brown's mismanaged BoE gold auctions, and currently is a buyer of RSA gold production through longterm contracts with SA miners.

"Interesting Times" indeed!

TownCrierUAE gold consumption up 21pc to $1.7 billion#14210603/04/06; 17:01:24§ion=business&col=

3 March 2006, DUBAI -- Gold consumption [in terms of tonnage] in major Gulf Arab markets Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates rose 13 percent [to 160 tonnes] and 10 percent [to 106 tonnes] respectively in 2005, despite high global prices, the World Gold Council said in a report.

Gold consumption in Egypt rose two per cent in 2005 to reach 76 tonnes.

...Gold consumption in terms of 2005 sales climbed 23 per cent to $2.6 billion in Saudi Arabia, and rose 21 per cent to $1.7 billion in the UAE. In Egypt, it rose nine per cent to $1.2 billion.

^---(from url)---^

Higher prices have certainly not had a dampering effect upon physical demand. In fact, from the point of view as a more attractive investment, it positively reinforces the demand trend.


spotlightChina/gold#1421073/4/06; 17:53:07

March 04, 2006
Chinese gold

Posted: Thu, 02 Mar 2006

[] -- THE Bank of China (BOC), the country's biggest foreign currency lender, plans to allow investors to buy and sell gold using their US dollar accounts in a move to boost sales of the precious metal, said Beijing Time.

The BOC's Shanghai branch says it will start trial trading in greenback gold this year and expand the pilot to its other branches in China, said the newspaper.

China now allows investors to buy and sell gold only through yuan accounts, though the sales are based on the dollar value of the metal on international markets.

Expanding the trades to US dollar accounts will help increase the capital pool and ward off foreign exchange risks, said the Beijing Time, citing authorities.

Gold has long been a popular investment product in China, as it is considered to be a safe haven and a symbol of good fortune, said the newspaper.
The US has been pressuring China to raise the value of the yuan closer to what it would bring at floating market prices. The US accuses China of manipulating its currency to gain an export advantage. The US wants the yuan to appreciate against the dollar to make China's goods more expensive for Americans. That would help reduce our balance of payments with China, which has exploded in recent years. (China, of course, could say it is "managing" its currency the same way Greenspan "managed" interest rates to boost our economy.)

The Chinese government has been very annoyed with the US for what they consider unjust treatment in today's "managed " markets. They seem to have come up with a punishing measure to wake up the aggessive forces in the US towards the Chinese government.

By encouraging gold sales to its businesses in exchange for dollars instead of yuan, it will dump dollars on the market while boosting gold prices. This, in turn, devalues the dollar against all other currencies (and gold, which is now stronger than all currencies).

Damn clever, these Chinese. The above move will allow the yuan to continue to be "managed" against the dollar, allowing for no change in the dollar/yuan relationship, therefore no change in export prices for China's exports to the US. However, as a punishment to the US for pressuring them, the dollar depreciation will stand against all other currencies and gold. It will also create higher prices for all foreign imports to the US except those from China.

This would prove to the world that what has been artificially subsidized is the dollar, all other things being equal. By not allowing gold purchases in China for dollars, China has kept the dollar stronger than it would otherwise have been.

The more these type of events surface, the more markets are catching on to the fact that the rumors they have been hearing from hard money advocates are, in fact, based on fact.

Smeagol#1421083/4/06; 18:22:20

$$$$$ FRN560.5 $$$$$ "Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"

Ach, those dread Ides. Sss...well precious, looking at seasonal chartses, the March-month has been a model of volatility as far as It is concerned... sso, we doesn't think much weight should be placed on thiss period of time. We thinks the "significant turning point" actually occurred several years ago when It began It's upward rise... though few paid much attention at the time.

That ssaid, ssomething(s) major could always occur during the Ides that may affect It, but thiss would be only coincidence... therefore Smeagol doesn't feel a need to beware the Ides of March in particular. Who knows, it might present a buying opportunity! The Iran bourse-opening and the discontinuance of M3 sstill bear watching.

We DOES think that eventually there will come an "event" that will reawaken the Gold-light in the mass public mind once again... Ides or no... and as the missty illusions of tricksy paper-wealth disperse, It will shine again.


spotlightPentagon plane crash#1421093/4/06; 18:25:32

Has anyone checked the flight number and passenger list to find out if the passengers are alive or dead?
This would seem an elemetary investgative measure.

The Invisible HandWhat Iranian Oil Bourse?#1421103/4/06; 18:46:27,,2095-2069841_1,00.html

The Sunday TimesMarch 05, 2006
The myths and legends about high oil prices
If this is correct, and it seems plausible, oil has been only a minor player in causing economic disruptions. Policy errors have been much more important. While not wanting to minimise the consequences of high energy prices for firms and households, I find this heartening.
If nothing else, it is a welcome antidote to the idea that the world economy could be held hostage by Al-Qaeda or Iran.

Here's David Smith, the senior business editor of the London Sunday Times, who discusses oil and concludes that the government of Iran poses a threat to the planet's stability, but no mention of the setting up of the IOB in two weeks.
Who's paranoid, David Smith or The Invisible Hand?
The link is to page 1 of the column.
The snipped passages are from the conclusion on page 2 which is here,,2095-2069841_2,00.html

SundeckThe Asian Challenge#1421113/4/06; 19:01:03

I note that a few English Sunday-tabloid newspapers are reporting a British and American troop pull-out from Iraq in 2007:

To the extent that anything appearing in the (British or Australian) Sunday papers should be viewed with skepticism, this is so far (to my mind, at least) the strongest evidence yet of a timetable for the end to the war in Iraq.

It raises the whole question of the likely affect on the US-dollar, and on gold, should firm evidence of a pull-out become clear.

The issue is wrapped up inextricably in the geopolitical changes that are occurring around the world and the role that America has played, is playing, and will elect to play going forward.

A balanced summary (in my view) of many of the issues is presented in the linked article (below) by Kishore Mahbubani from the Lee Kuan Yew school of public policy Singapore.


Even more vital, America used its power at the end of World War II to create a global order that gave all nations an equal chance to thrive. These 1945 rules - wired into the United Nations Charter and the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade constitutions - allowed for the peaceful emergence of new powers as well as the re-emergence of the defeated Axis powers. America's actions made clear its intentions: America did not want to see other societies fail; it wanted them to succeed.

Sundeck: Highly recommended as a quick primer to the great role America has played over the last hundred years and the general malaise in which America and the world now appear to be engulfed...


Topaz$$$ 546.5 $$$#1421123/4/06; 20:26:10

Silver, as expected is front-running Gold here and we'd expect that to continue short-term with an Ag-Au decouple on or about the Ides (Ag Up ...Au down to sideways)
Ten BearsRobert McHugh & Lyndon H. LaRouche, #1421133/4/06; 20:57:27

The Plunge Protection Team Intervention Risk Indicator:
>For the past several years, we have seen repeated "out of the blue" short-covering rallies just about the time a decline seems to be gaining some momentum
>The money is injected into markets via the New York Fed's Repo desk, which easily showed up in the M-3 numbers, warning intervention was nigh
>It means markets can never be allowed to drop for fear Wall Street firms' profits will shrink.
>the metamorphosing of capitalism into corporatist fascism -- which simply means, what is good for corporations is right, at the expense of our nation's founding principles and individual rights.

Lyndon H. LaRouche,
The U.S.A. will soon be faced with a series of actual or managed chain-reaction collapses within the present U.S. Federal Reserve System. The interdependence of the international financial bubble in vastly overpriced mortgages, with the implicitly hyperinflationary, Weimar-1923-resembling international hedge-fund bubble, would mean a demand for payment exceeding all existing world resources. Plainly, the entirety of the financial-derivatives gamble accumulated in the aftermath of the 1987 U.S. stock-market crash, is not fungible.
>We have, in fact, two principal strategic threats to overcome. One, is the onrushing collapse of a hyperinflationary financial-speculative bubble, which threatens now, within the span of the current months or more ahead, not a mere Hoover-style depression, but a general, sudden collapse of the system as a whole. The second is the intended alternative of a circle of international private financiers, and the like, who have a fierce commitment to an unworkable but ominous replacement of the sovereign nation-state institution by what is called a "globalized system." The latter intention is to destroy the economic authority of all forms of government presently, as Felix Rohatyn typifies this intention, by giving over all actual government to vast syndicates of predator financial oligarchy, under whose reign, nation-state governments, inasmuch as they are permitted to continue to exist, will be mere errand-boys for vast financier syndicates which would be, by the current intention of that crowd, the imperial rulers of the world.

Waverider$$$$$ 585.80 $$$$$#1421143/4/06; 21:01:58

Yes Sir Gandalf....I have been contemplating the immediate future of Spot....and Yes...the Ides of March will be a psychological turning point as the reporting of M3 slips into oblivion. Good luck all, and thank you Sir MK and Gandalf for another competition. Cheers,


Max Rabbitz9/11 and Why I buy Gold #1421153/4/06; 21:20:09

It seems a large number of people choose to ignore the mass of evidence and focus only on that which supports their view of world. They exclude and ignore all that which doesn't fit. I guess this has always been the case. But in such perilous times as these it seems irresponsible to give this aid and support to an enemy which demands your total submission or murderous extermination. It's real. Terror can be very effective. However, some people don't think cultures that still ride camels and seem obsessed by religious rituals can pose a real challenge, much less learn to fly a Boeing. The odds are high that the arrogant West (Europe too) and their greedy banker masters are going to lose. Gold will rise, but be careful what you wish for.
Ten BearsJim Willie#1421163/4/06; 21:42:21

>War is beneficial for the price of both crude oil and gold. Anyone who expects an inflationary depression alongside war needs to examine the history books for a precedent. There are none.
>Contrary to plan or promise, crude oil has more than doubled in price since spring 2003.
>Let's not overlook the comedy from the wartime public relations initiative on the financial and economic aspects, which would make Johnny Carson's old "Tonight Show" envious of the material.. We were given some truly absurd promises, like how increased Iraqi oil production would pay for the war itself, which made me howl in laughter (Congress bought it)… like how the crude oil price would decline toward $20 per barrel, which brought more laughter amidst doubled investments in energy stocks (Wall Street bought it)...
>The USDollar is being outflanked not on one front, but on at least four fronts.
>The current situation seems far more dangerous than the Cuban Missile Crisis under Kennedy.

Golden Lionheart$$$$$$$ 549.50 $$$$$$$#1421173/4/06; 22:13:41

Yes, I see March 15th (The Ides) as a day when gold will resume its downward path to complete the correction. Then it will recommence its golden journey towards $600 and all stations North. So Beware the Ides of March and keep your powder dry!
GoldiloxHabbeas Corpus#1421183/4/06; 22:19:07


Just because a plane or person is missing does not prove it is the ONE that hit the Pentagon.

More than circumstantial evidence is required for proof, which is why those requesting a serious investigation are asking that the video security tapes confiscated from the Pentagon and the public gas station down the street be opened to examination. Can you think of any REAL national security reason those tapes should remain classified as "confidential, except that they might throw a monkey wrench into someone's alibi"?

It's not about supporting one hypothesis or another, but actually examining the evidence and getting as close to truth as possible.

Remember, ot one single shred of released evidence has tied bin Laden to 911, as the REAL evidence remains "classified". The video tapes coming out post event are so full of holes and edits, that they might well be from George Lucas, except his editing is a lot more professional.

We've pretty much talked this one to death, but the bottom line is that in the name of "National Security", NONE of the real evidence is available for examination.

Even the carcass of the WTC was trotted off to China to make a buck off the recycled steel before investigators could examine the remains.

It's a lot like the New Orleans' eye-witnesses who asked Congress to simply examine the levees for explosive residue in the general neighborhood of their homes, and were turned down flat. No one wants to lift a finger to question any official" stories, as it paints the next target on their back.

Dubya rants about "aiding and abetting" the enemy but not once has he admitted that Rummy was arming Saddam while Ollie North was arming Iran and Osama bin Laden. Now, which "patriot" was "aiding and abetting"?

You won't get the clues from FOX "fair and balanced". You gotta dig a little deeper for the real nuggets.

I suggest the 3-hr video "Money Masters" that was posted here a week ago as a "primer".

Chris PowellChina says it won't cut dollar holdings -- but will it stop adding to them?#1421193/5/06; 00:18:41

From Reuters
Saturday, March 4, 2006

BEIJING -- China will not reduce its holdings of dollar-denominated assets in its foreign exchange reserves, central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan said on Sunday.

However, Zhou, governor of the People's Bank of China, did not say whether the proportion of dollars in the reserves would rise or fall.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the National People's Congress, or parliament, Zhou said there had been market speculation that China might reduce its dollar holdings.

"The forex reserves are still growing. Some people are concerned that the amount of dollar assets in the reserves will fall. But that's not the case," Zhou said.

China had $818.9 billion in reserves at the end of 2005. It does not disclose the composition of the stockpile.

Zhou said China would adjust the mix of its reserves in light of global market conditions. In doing so, China's criteria would be safety, liquidity, and profitability, in that order.

He did not elaborate.

Zhou was also coy about the prospects for the yuan, saying only that the currency's trend would be determined by supply and demand.

beowulf +911#1421213/5/06; 05:15:55

I agree that there are many unanswered questions from the establishment. We(I was in the Navy overseas at the time) were preparing to invade Afghanistan before 911 ever happened. That has beem reported in the BBC, Janes, and the India Daily. Rebuilding America's defenses, a sub-section of The Project for the New American Century, written in 2000 stated on page 51 that it would be a slow transformation absent a catalyzing, catastrophic event, like a new pearl harbor. This is in reference to the domination of the middle east, military spending, genetic weapons, and oil stated in the document. Right on schedule, as reported in the BBC, we attacked Afghanistan in October. Why should I, a conservative, ask questions of that event?... because it was right on time according to the neocon playbook. Hence, I buy gold because I know the rest of the story.... This cannot end well.


GoldiloxChina FOREX#1421243/5/06; 08:26:45

@ Chris Powell,

Sounds like Zhou is soooo tired of visits by Snow, that he is starting to sound like him in efforts to keep him at bay.

Who was it that suggested "official denial" is the first step in corroboration?

From a market standpoint, "We are not selling" usually means "please keep buying while WE sell, as we don't want the floor to drop out from under the price."

From a more practical standpoint, the Chinese could probably not care less about the inflationary dollar, as long as they get the lion's share and can use it to purchase the hard assets they need on world markets.

If it loses credibility, all bets are off, so to speak.

Goldilox911 and other political discussions#1421273/5/06; 09:50:23

While there are certainly a lot of unanswered 911 questions, the major pertinance to our discussions here is that people are now asking hard questions with less fear of political backlash, which may affect the "full faith and credit" of the US government and its common share, the dollar, as Sinclair puts it.

The bottom line is that we are witnessing the dollar finding less and less welcome as the "global reserve standard", with a return to appreciation of harder savings like precious metals (that demand fewer political alliances) by many people as well as collectively by their governments.

While that doesn't bode well for those under the jackboots of various political "leaders", the best we can do is prepare ourselves for the logical ramifications of some upheaval and vote our conscience when given the opportunity.

A local Congressman here in San Diego just got 8+ years in prison for his corrupt activities, so public backlash is not merciful to those who take the fall for manipulating their welfare.

We should probably leave the detail to sites more focused on the individual topics.

I am certainly not blameless in this regard, so I am not pointing fingers, just making a suggestion.

WhitewaterwomanAgree with Goldilox#1421283/5/06; 10:04:34

...the general trend of asking more questions should benefit GATA. Perhaps we will see a freer gold!


The "Ides of March" POG CONTEST

Following are listed the EARLYBIRD entries !
Gandalf thanks you THREE for starting out the CONTEST with such GREAT answers to the QUESTIONS. <;-)

(Listed in order of DECREASING values)

$$$$ $750.0 $$$$ Beamer (3/3/06; 16:07:46MT - msg#: 142093)

$$$$ $585.8 $$$$ Waverider (3/4/06; 21:01:58MT - msg#: 142114)

$$$$ $583.4 $$$$ Flatliner (3/3/06; 10:39:39MT - msg#: 142088)

NOTE GAP !! <=====

$$$$ $568.8 $$$$ Beer Man (03/04/06; 12:17:16MT - msg#: 142102)

$$$$ $565.0 $$$$ Rocky (3/3/06; 14:30:02MT - msg#: 142091)

$$$ FRN560.5 $$$ Smeagol (3/4/06; 18:22:20MT - msg#: 142108)

$$$$ $549.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (3/4/06; 22:13:41MT - msg#: 142117)

$$$$ $546.5 $$$$ Topaz (3/4/06; 20:26:10MT - msg#: 142112)


FYI, Gandy foresees an early entry, being the WINNER of the Mexican 10 Peso GOLDCOIN this CONTEST !
(Thanks Lady Waverider !) <;-)



$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

At the request of SIR MK, USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the APRIL, 2006 Comex contract (GCJ06) on Wednesday, March 15, 2006, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, March 12, 2006, AND ALL ENTRIES must answer SIR MK's QUESTIONS !!

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive an uncirculated Mexician 10 Peso GOLDPIECE which contains Actual Gold Content of 0.2411 fine ozs of GOLD.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce pure Silver U.S. Eagle.

The QUESTIONS -- (actually two Questions) <;-) --
(Put on your THINKING HATS !)

The questions are, -- "Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2006 Gold Contract (GCJ06) on the date of Wednesday, March 15, 2006.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $567.8)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $567.8 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on: Sunday, March 12, 2006.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)

--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph (more or less) discussing;
LET the CONTEST continue !

Freedom$$$$ $568.4 $$$$#1421313/5/06; 11:12:11

In my opinion, the unfolding events (the deficit, rising inflation, the propaganda war keeping the sheeple in line) along with the Computer Geek (digirati) Web Bot predictions ~ have set up an "expectation" of a significant psychological turning point for gold during the month of March. The sinister warning, contained in the words "Beware the Ides of March", gives me eerie, spooky, bizaare feeling THIS YEAR. In times past, the Ides of March were just part of a story. Now they're more a warning. Gold is becoming a necessity during this "turning point", rather than becoming an "investment."
Clink!@ Max Rabbitz#1421323/5/06; 11:27:45

After spending a couple of engrossing hours reading at the URLs posted by Goldilox and tejbear, I struggled for half an hour to put my thoughts into order. Not happy with the result, I gave up (NMs do that to my writing skills !) and found that you had exactly encapsulated most of what I wanted to say in one sentence :- "It seems a large number of people choose to ignore the mass of evidence and focus only on that which supports their view of world." So simple. Thank you !

It is rather interesting to speculate at which point someone with only a vague background of the facts smells a rat. After all, it only requires one hard piece of evidence that completely contradicts the accepted truth to start the gnawing seeds of doubt. With the Pentagon, it is that the hole in the wall is smaller than the wingspan of the plane, and yet there are no bits of at least the wings left on the outside. I can remember on one of my first visits to the Forum reading that if gold was now "just" a garden-variety commodity, how come it is not subject to sales tax ? What, the government passing on an opportunity to tax people ? (OK, as long as it's over $1,000). Since then, there have been inumerable other examples - maybe we could have a page of "incontravertable inconvenient inconsistencies" for the unconvinced at the Forum ?

arbyh******$574.40*******#1421333/5/06; 11:43:24

The Ides of March will mark the beginning of a significant turning point in, not only the price of gold, but how the American people view thier economic security and future as a nation.
Mid-March will pass unnoticed by 95% of the public, but the die is caste for major problems in the near future. Mid-April to mid-May may be much more dramatic in the telling. I need not tell you learned clerics the cobweb theorem, but just say that anyone, or several, causes will have mutiple rippling effects and caste doubt on all things currently taken for granted in our country. The status quo is, and will be, desperatly held unto by the government neo-cons and thier puppeteers, but the international, domestic, and monentary problems are so far beyond thier reach to solve. A man with his finger in the dike comes to mind, and just like a dam break, our reality will change with a tell-tale crack, a short trickle of failure, and then a roar of catastrophy.

ArcticfoxFreedom, what is this in reference to?#1421343/5/06; 12:57:29

"Computer Geek (digirati) Web Bot predictions"
Whitewaterwoman$$$$574.50$$$$#1421353/5/06; 13:28:05

Gap duly noted!

I don't think the ides of March will mark a significant turning point for gold unless we (the US) have gone into Iran by then. I think more significant turning points will be the opening of the Iran oil bourse (is it on March 20th?) and the US and Israel being at war with Iran. At that point, GOLD TO THE MOON.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A combo of assets and info to help you step up with grace and confidence!#1421363/5/06; 13:57:18">gold ownership starter kit
Liberty Head$$$570.0$$$#1421373/5/06; 14:02:09

Ides will come and Ides will go. The general population will be just as foolish, ignorant, voluntarily powerless and brainwashed, no matter what events happen. The sad irony is the free-market money cure for the all the ills of fractional reserve banking is perceived as death. Addiction to government is a highly contagious and terminal disease.

Best Wishes

SlowmanContest#1421383/5/06; 15:33:02


I see the Ides of March having no important meaning other than it is corresponding with several major events . China is buying gold , 620 tons this year, and that should make gold bugs happy. Only an ignorant president would attack Iran with all their contracts with Russia and China.We need not worry about the Ides of March, sit back relax and enjoy the gold ride !!!

tejbearSpotlight msg#142109#1421393/5/06; 16:12:55


I can't really get past the volume of the wreckage issue, but at the same time I concur with Goldilox's assessment that this is a debate for another website. With the elimination of "Due Process", the jackboots don't care if your a "good guy"….

The Bear

Clink!Is this a joke ?#1421403/5/06; 17:10:23

I saw a picture over at Sinclair's site which has a picture of what can only be described as a hut sat on paving slabs on a lot surrounded by high-walled neighbors. Asking price ? $469,000. Thinking this might be one of his jokes, I went to and looked up the 94124 zip (San Francisco). There it is. No area given, but it's a 2br 1bath. Cosy. Maybe the price was higher because it's actually an antique hut, having been built in 1912 with a Victorian style.

And who says the housing market has topped ?!


PS. Full disclosure - I may have been a little too critical. This is 1107 Gilman. I've just noticed that 1175 Gilman is also for sale. No picture but the 658 sq ft, built in 1908, is going for $500,000. I weep.

mikalToronto Star inept and unprofessional#1421413/5/06; 18:23:44

Gold slugfest delivered knockout punch - Bill Corrigan - March 5, 2006
Inept and unprofessional? Extremely arrogant? That's understating the mess made here of last week's TV appearance of Gartman, Embry and Murphy. Wow!

mikalNevada may enforce voluntary mercury emmisions rules#1421423/5/06; 18:44:12

Las Vegas SUN: Heavy price for gold - Launce Rake - March 5, 2005
tejbearMax Rabbitz msg#142115#1421433/5/06; 18:50:26


I am not quite sure what you were saying. "But in such perilous times as these it seems irresponsible to give this aid and support to an enemy which demands your total submission or murderous extermination."

Are you suggesting that my post supports the terrorists?

The Bear

Golden LionheartVisits to India and Pakistan#1421443/5/06; 19:33:43

Insomuch as to what may happen in Iran in the near future could affect the price of gold, I make the following supposition.

Visits to India and Pakistan by Dubya and by his little lap-dog puppet John Howard (from my country)to India intrigue me. Could they be there to "sound out" opinion on a possible attack on Iran their near neighbour?

Beware the Ides of March indeed!

Liberty HeadMoney Masters Propaganda#1421453/5/06; 20:27:04

The Money Masters 2 part video links repeatedly posted here correctly identifies fractional reserve banking and unrestrained government power to borrow as key concerns. Unfortunately, the suggested reforms are simply propaganda for more government control over the money creation process. Simply converting a privately controlled money press to public control would only increase the power of the US government, already the greatest threat to humanity the world has known.
If a blonde with lip implants or Ollie North narrated it, Fox News would surely broadcast it.
The arguments made against a gold standard are weak and feeble. Free-market money is not explored at all.

Best Wishes

GoldiloxMoney Masters#1421463/5/06; 21:16:14

@ Liberty Head,

I also was not impressed with their canned solution, but only with their analysis of the issues and perps.

They tell the tale well, but their solution is more of the same with different protagonists.

tejbearGoldilox #1421473/5/06; 21:36:39


Surprise, surprise, I didn't know you were a neighbor... I'm up here in OC. San Diego is one of the places I have thought to move too...

The Bear

PRITCHOFrom Latest Privateer - -- (Why Precious Will Be a Hold)#1421483/5/06; 21:43:57

Early March Issue -- Bill Buckler nails it down:

A silent political earthquake has been felt in the US. A new CBS poll this week has shown that President Bush's approval rating dropped to 34 percent from 42 percent in January. This is a massive fall. It is a fall from
which neither President Bush nor his Administration is likely to recover.The White House is the political"Green Zone"in Washington. The real Green Zone in Baghdad is surrounded by irate Iraqis. Washington is surrounded by disaffected Americans. President Bush has lost the confidence of the American nation.

Almost 60 percent of the US public believes that the troops should be withdrawn from Iraq this year. Almost half the public say that the US should never have invaded and troops should be withdrawn immediately.

Polling The American Troops:
Another poll shows that US soldiers overwhelmingly want out of Iraq soon. This poll is the first one of US troops currently serving in Iraq.

Only 23 percent of these US troops backed President Bush's position that they should stay as long as necessary. In contrast,72 percent said the US should pull out within one year. And of those, 29 percent said they should withdraw immediately. President Bush has lost the confidence of the US armed forces. Politically, losing the confidence of the nation AND of the nation's armed forces is historically a deadly combination. Rarely, if ever in history, has any political regime recovered from that. Clearly, all the
political men around President Bush know this. They know, at least implicitly, that THEY are the ones who have presided over one of the greatest policy failures in American history. What they now fear most is not terrorists
- but the American people.

The LAST Man Standing Is The US Economy:
It has now been reported by the US Commerce Department that
the US economy grew at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005.This latest estimate came right after the "interim adjustment" reported by The Privateer which stated that the US economy had only grown by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter. As it now stands, after all the latest finagles, the US economy actually "grew" by 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter. That compares with the 1.1 percent rate reported before the "interim adjustment" and
the 4.1 percent pace in the third quarter, so says the Commerce Department.

Does ANYONE believe this anymore?
Look at the US stock market. The Dow began its 10000-11000
trading range SEVEN YEARS AGO in March 1999. In essence, it has gone nowhere for seven years.That can't be said for US debts. Treasury debt alone is up just over $US 3 TRILLION since March 1999.

Living On Borrowed Time:
Between 2000-2005, the US global trade imbalance on goods and services totalled $US 2.99 TRILLION. That, in global terms, sums up these last few years. The US economy has imported the above sum of real economic goods with money borrowed from the outside world. Conversely, that is now what the US owes to that external world of lenders. The US is piling additional debts on top of this existing debt to
the annual tune of $US 700 Billion plus, as can be read off the US huge trade and current account deficits.

The Approaching Political End:
This process is now approaching its end. When it reaches the end, the Bush Administration will lose its last foothold on any form of political legitimacy. It has already lost the confidence of both the people and the armed forces. Add to that the loss of confidence shown by an unwillingness to extend more credit to the US by foreign nations and the Bush Administration has lost it ALL. The purpose of President Bush's otherwise meaningless trip to India and Pakistan (with a "surprise" side trip to Afghanistan) is an attempt to draw American perceptions towards "Presidential Bush" and away from Iraq and the US economy.

GoldiloxTreading water or bailing a sinking ship?#1421493/5/06; 22:15:04

@ Pritcho,

Your quote: "Look at the US stock market. The Dow began its 10000-11000
trading range SEVEN YEARS AGO in March 1999. In essence, it has gone nowhere for seven years. That can't be said for US debts. Treasury debt alone is up just over $US 3 TRILLION since March 1999."

says much.

With the "hedonic adjustments" factors removed, the DOW is about 30% BELOW Y2K. If raw inflation factors (a la money degradation) are used in the calculation, it is sadly even further behind. While on the other hand, indebtedness is growing nearly hyperbolically, thanks to the miracle of "compound interest".

Promoting military adventures may have rescued international business in the past, but it is clearly not working this time.

In MHO, globalism itself kills the goose that lays those golden eggs, because there really is no one left to conquer without disrupting their own "emerging markets" and raw material supply lines. As we have witnessed in Iraq, the assertion that these adventures can pay for themselves was utter economic hogwash. The million and a half bpd emerging from Iraq is costing a couple of $BILLION a week, not mentioning high price of political capital, as the Prez so often references . . . way more than $60/ bbl.

mikal"Governments can't keep printing money"#1421503/5/06; 22:33:53

Harry Brown: Right on the Megatrend - Peter Brimelow - March 6, 2006
Author and legend Harry Browne was fond of Austrian economics, free markets and gold.

Chally$$$$$$$ 577.10 $$$$$$$#1421513/5/06; 22:37:54

The Ides? No market bearing at all,'normally' speaking...but these are strange days, strange days indeed!
The proximity of the Ides to the opening of the IOB, and the rising drumbeat of another 'police action' in Iran could tilt the table...but in that event, the only thing to BEWARE of, is being caught withOUT the noble metal.

Actually, and this may only be a perception, I'm more concerned with Sir Gandalf's calling for a new contest. Seems to me that invariably, the $$ goldprice drops shortly after the clarion call!! Not to be shaken though, I think we're going higher.The question is HOW MUCH?

24karat@ Clink!#1421523/5/06; 23:05:45

"And who says the housing market has topped out?"

Actually the house you mentioned may have had its price reduced to attract some buyers. The average home in San Francisco is being sold for $745,000, the most expensive in the nation. Kinda scary, isn't it? But the folks who live there think SF is the cat's meow. Even people who lose their high paying jobs would gladly scrub toilets for a living than move out of town!

Chally@CLINK!......Some joke,eh?#1421533/5/06; 23:45:49

Same thing in areas of FL....old trailer on a piece of desirable property. That's the key. Disregard the shack, what people WANT is the property, which is nonetheless, ridiculously overpriced.
GoldiloxExec Order 11110, by JFK#1421543/6/06; 02:19:27

For those who have been led to believe this is "conspiracy bait":

Executive Order 11110 AMENDMENT OF EXECUTIVE ORDER NO. 10289


By virtue of the authority vested in me by section 301 of title 3 of the United States Code, it is ordered as follows:

Section 1. Executive Order No. 10289 of September 19, 1951, as amended, is hereby further amended-

By adding at the end of paragraph 1 thereof the following subparagraph (j):

(j) The authority vested in the President by paragraph (b) of section 43 of the Act of May 12,1933, as amended (31 U.S.C.821(b)), to issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury not then held for redemption of any outstanding silver certificates, to prescribe the denomination of such silver certificates, and to coin standard silver dollars and subsidiary silver currency for their redemption

and --

Byrevoking subparagraphs (b) and (c) of paragraph 2 thereof.

Sec. 2. The amendments made by this Order shall not affect any act done, or any right accruing or accrued or any suit or proceeding had or commenced in any civil or criminal cause prior to the date of this Order but all such liabilities shall continue and may be enforced as if said amendments had not been made.

John F. Kennedy The White House, June 4, 1963.

On June 4, 1963, a little known attempt was made to strip the Federal Reserve Bank of its power to loan money to the government at interest. On that day President John F. Kennedy signed Executive Order No. 11110 that returned to the U.S. government the power to issue currency, without going through the Federal Reserve. Mr. Kennedy's order gave the Treasury the power "to issue silver certificates against any silver bullion, silver, or standard silver dollars in the Treasury." This meant that for every ounce of silver in the U.S. Treasury's vault, the government could introduce new money into circulation. In all, Kennedy brought nearly $4.3 billion in U.S. notes into circulation. The ramifications of this bill are enormous.

With the stroke of a pen, Mr. Kennedy was on his way to putting the Federal Reserve Bank of New York out of business. If enough of these silver certificates were to come into circulation they would have eliminated the demand for Federal Reserve notes. This is because the silver certificates are backed by silver and the Federal Reserve notes are not backed by anything. Executive Order 11110 could have prevented the national debt from reaching its current level, because it would have given the gevernment the ability to repay its debt without going to the Federal Reserve and being charged interest in order to create the new money. Executive Order 11110 gave the U.S. the ability to create its own money backed by silver.

GoldiloxA second perspective#1421553/6/06; 02:38:32

And here's the G Edward Griffin perspective on the JFK-silver issue.

While he is unwilling to draw the conclusion that the banking community was behind JFK's assassination, he suggests that it is plausible.

His strongest argument against that theory is that they were too often "playing on the same side", which I find a little like saying

"Hitler would never attack Stalin, because they signed a mutual defense pact".

Or "Rumsfeld would never attack Saddam, as he was the one who armed him."

Oh, what tangled webs we weave . . .

GoldiloxCrude oil spills from North Slope pipe transit line#1421573/6/06; 02:43:09


ANCHORAGE, Alaska -- An unknown quantity of crude oil spilled Thursday from a 34-inch diameter pipe transit line at Prudhoe Bay on Alaska's North Slope, and dangerous fumes stalled inspection and cleanup efforts for hours.

Crude oil could be seen on snow-covered tundra along the pipe more than 200 miles east of Barrow. Field responders said oil had reached the edge of a lake.

Crews on Thursday afternoon began using a vacuum truck to recover some of the oil that had pooled on the frozen ground, said BP Exploration (Alaska) Inc. spokesman Daren Beaudo. The amount of crude spilled will be determined in the cleanup.

Officials with BP, which operates the transit line, still did not know the cause.

"It's taken us awhile to get closer and closer to the actual scene to try to evaluate exactly where the leak is," Beaudo said.

The spill was discovered early Thursday morning by BP operators visually inspecting lines, Beaudo said. He was not sure how long it took to respond but said the line was quickly blocked and depressurized.

In response, BP workers also shut down Gathering Center 2, cutting about 100,000 barrels of Prudhoe Bay's daily production of 470,000 barrels.


As if threats of supply disruption in Nigeria and the ME weren't enough.

GoldiloxSorry for the double post on Alaska spill#1421583/6/06; 02:45:27

Itchy trigger finger on the mouse button, I suppose.


$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

At the request of SIR MK, USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the APRIL, 2006 Comex contract (GCJ06) on Wednesday, March 15, 2006, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, March 12, 2006, AND ALL ENTRIES must answer SIR MK's QUESTIONS !!

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive an uncirculated Mexician 10 Peso GOLDPIECE which contains Actual Gold Content of 0.2411 fine ozs of GOLD.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce pure Silver U.S. Eagle.

The QUESTIONS -- (actually two Questions) <;-) --
(Put on your THINKING HATS !)

The questions are, -- "Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2006 Gold Contract (GCJ06) on the date of Wednesday, March 15, 2006.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $567.8)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $567.8 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on: Sunday, March 12, 2006.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)

--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph (more or less) discussing;
LET the CONTEST continue !



The "Ides of March" POG CONTEST

Following are listed the EARLYBIRD entries !
GREAT answers to the QUESTIONS. <;-)

(Listed in order of DECREASING values)

$$$$ $750.0 $$$$ Beamer (3/3/06; 16:07:46MT - msg#: 142093)

$$$$ $585.8 $$$$ Waverider (3/4/06; 21:01:58MT - msg#: 142114)

$$$$ $583.4 $$$$ Flatliner (3/3/06; 10:39:39MT - msg#: 142088)

$$$$ $580.1 $$$$ Slowman (3/5/06; 15:33:02MT - msg#: 142138)

$$$$ $577.1 $$$$ Chally (3/5/06; 22:37:54MT - msg#: 142151)

$$$$ $574.5 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (3/5/06; 13:28:05MT - msg#: 142135)
**** $574.4 **** arbyh (3/5/06; 11:43:24MT - msg#: 142133)

$$$$ $570.0 $$$$ Liberty Head (3/5/06; 14:02:09MT - msg#: 142137)

$$$$ $568.8 $$$$ Beer Man (03/04/06; 12:17:16MT - msg#: 142102)

$$$$ $568.4 $$$$ Freedom (3/5/06; 11:12:11MT - msg#: 142131)

$$$$ $565.0 $$$$ Rocky (3/3/06; 14:30:02MT - msg#: 142091)

$$$ FRN560.5 $$$ Smeagol (3/4/06; 18:22:20MT - msg#: 142108)

$$$$ $549.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (3/4/06; 22:13:41MT - msg#: 142117)

$$$$ $546.5 $$$$ Topaz (3/4/06; 20:26:10MT - msg#: 142112)

FYI, Gandy foresees an early entry, being the WINNER of the Mexican 10 Peso GOLDCOIN this CONTEST !

TownCrierDeutsche Bank becomes Trade Member of DGCX#1421613/6/06; 06:25:37;link=79465

United Arab Emirates: March 05, 2006 -- Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX) today announced that Deutsche Bank (London) has been approved as a Precious Metals Trade Member of DGCX.

DGCX also confirmed that Deutsche Bank will be engaged in market making for gold and silver contracts traded on the exchange.

The introduction of a prominent player of the size and stature of Deutsche Bank, as a market maker will provide a huge stimulus to the volumes on the newest exchange. A market maker typically brings with them narrower spreads (difference between bid and ask rates) which in turn fuels liquidity in the contracts traded. This results in better price discovery and encourages other market participants to use the exchange platform for hedging, arbitrage and investment.

Deutsche Bank is one of the leading international financial solutions providers with EURO 993 billion in assets and over 63,000 employees. With a history in gold trading that stretches back over 200 years Deutsche Bank has deep routes in today's gold market. Deutsche Bank has been a Market Maker of the London Bullion Market Association for the last two decades and a member of the London Gold Market Fixing Ltd for the last 13 years. Deutsche Bank also has a significant presence on the world's most highly recognized metals exchanges, as an active trader on the New York (NYMEX) and Tokyo (TOCOM) commodities exchanges, as well as being a Category 2 Member of the London Metals Exchange.

^-----(see url for full article)---^

With seemingly ample access already to gold trading avenues elsewhere, what in Dubai has attracted the participation of Deutsche Bank... could it be the unique implementation of seven-day trading?

Might the Dubai pricing become the heavyweight benchmark toward which the others follow as lesser planets in a relative sort of economic solar system in which arbitrage serves the role of gravity?

And China?


TownCrierGold seen as undervalued, expected to regain glitter#1421623/6/06; 06:45:19

March 6 2006 -- REGARDLESS of whether you view gold as a commodity, money or a store of wealth, its present price near a 25-year high is making a statement that is attracting the attention of private, corporate and hedge fund investors, and traders.

The collective decision-making of all these market participants will set the future of gold prices.

...the present annual production is about 2,500 tonnes. Gold consumption is estimated to be 3,500 tonnes per annum. From these numbers the gold market appears to be in structural deficit.

Gold has had an historic use as money and store of wealth for thousands of years. It is the single fully international hard currency.

...Paper money, while being an excellent medium of exchange in normal commercial dealings, is a very poor store of wealth as it is too easy to print and will disappear in a fire.

Real estate is a hard asset but it is not transportable or divisible or exchangeable in minute pieces. Also, real estate transactions often contain significant levels of debt such that valuations may be susceptible to increases in interest rates.

We are all familiar with monetary inflation. It is the relentless increase in prices over time. The gold inflation rate can be computed by expressing the annual gold production as a percentage of the historic gold production. The present rate is in the range 1.6-1.9 per cent.

...Comparing the price of gold today with those of yesteryear is interesting. In the decades following the 1930s depression, crude oil was selling for about US$2 per barrel and gold was at US$35 per ounce. An ounce of gold would purchase 16-17 barrels of crude oil.

Today an ounce of gold will purchase 8-9 barrels of crude oil.

...On comparison the oil/gold, real estate/gold and Dow Jones/gold ratios all suggest that gold may be currently undervalued.

However, it does appear that funds are currently flowing into the gold markets which are viewed as relatively undervalued entities. This may eventually lead to a significant revaluation of gold and a restoration to its former purchasing powers.

^---(from url)---^

Reasonably positive yet still grossly understated promo for gold here in the Malaysian Business Times -- necessarily there is not a peep on the more heady issue of CB intentions regarding the reserve revaluation and realignment score.


GoldiloxFollow the bouncing ball!#1421633/6/06; 07:42:05

Interesting "bounce" in Au and Ag in NY open this morning.
GoldiloxLibya's reforming premier sacked#1421643/6/06; 08:16:25


Libyan Prime Minister Shukri Ghanem - seen as one of the key architects of the end of decades of international isolation - is sacked.
He was also known for his controversial attempts at free market reform.

He will take charge of Libya's national oil company, and be replaced by his deputy, Baghdadi Mahmudi.

Libya's parliament announced the sacking as part of a major cabinet reshuffle - the first since 1994.

Correspondents say Mr Ghanem's policies were popular with business people but opposed by local committees responsible for carrying out government policy.

Mr Ghanem, who studied in the US, had been in the job since June 2003.

But his gradual privatisation of state-owned companies, as well as the decrease in government subsidies to electricity and petrol, put him at odds those of his parliamentary counterparts loyal to socialist ideals.

Mr Ghanem once said they should either allow him to implement change or let him go. His calls seem to have been heard, says the BBC's correspondent in Tripoli, Rana Jawad.

In his new role he will be in complete control of the oil and gas sector.


more backlash against "privitization" of oil assets.

Goldilox10-year yields highest since hikes began#1421653/6/06; 09:44:37{B74903A4-E3F7-4A31-B82F-49B76F087727}&siteId=mktw


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Yields on 10-year Treasury notes climbed again Monday, reaching their highest levels since June 2004, just before the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates.

The benchmark 10-year note last was down 6/32 at 98-11/32 with a yield of 4.71%, the highest since June 28, 2004.

Yields were higher across the maturity curve on Monday. The curve remained inverted, with a 5 basis-point spread between the yield on the 2-year note and the 30-year bond. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
There was little economic data on tap on Monday, leaving traders to focus on technical factors to drive trades.

The Commerce Department said factory orders plunged 4.5% in January, about as expected. See full story.
The National Association of Realtors said its pending home sales index slowed 1.1% in January and is now down 4.8% in the past 12 months. Read more.

In recent sessions Treasury prices have been pressured by concerns that interest rates may be on the rise in the United States, Japan and the euro zone. Higher rates in Europe and Japan would pressure U.S. interest rates because they would provide more attractive investment opportunities outside the United States.

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its overnight interest rate target to 5% by mid-summer, with a growing expectation that the fed funds rate will go to 5.25% by September.

The 10-year yield is rarely below the federal funds rate, said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. "Treasury yields look headed to 5% by the May 10th FOMC meeting and possibly 5.25% by June 29."
"With no hint of an interest rate cut on the horizon, those who operate on borrowed money are showing an unwillingness to buy Treasuries yielding less than 4.75%," Crescenzi said.

In the past few years, the bulk of global savings have been flowing into U.S. assets, such as Treasurys. The flood of foreign buyers has kept long-term interest rates low despite a cumulative 350 basis point increase in the overnight federal funds rate.

Treasurys also have been hurt by strong competition from corporate supply and worries that foreign central banks are diversifying away from U.S. assets.
At the last read, the 2-year note was down 1/32 at 99-24/32 to yield 4.76%, the highest since February 2001. The 5-year note was down 3/32 at 99 to yield 4.73%. The 30-year bond was down 19/32 at 96 26/32 to yield 4.70%.


If you hold my money for two years, pay me 4.76%. If you want to hold it 28 years longer, it will cost you 4.70%.

Inversion, or just bass-ackwardization?

968BIS Quarterly Review - March 2006#1421663/6/06; 10:25:54

Townie, I'm sure you will draw the necessary conclusions out of this report, and post them on the forum... (smile)


"With few countries managing their currencies against the SDR and no governments politically committed to it, private SDR bonds put in no more than a cameo appearance."

"The soaring turnover in derivatives on precious metals reflected mainly active trading in Japan, where investors appear to have used precious metals futures to diversify their portfolios as the yen declined. Total turnover in gold futures traded on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange doubled in the fourth quarter, while activity in silver and platinum contracts increased by roughly one third each."

"Turnover in gold futures on the Commodity Exchange in the United States fell by one third in December while activity in options continued to increase, presumably because traders tried to protect themselves as they became more concerned about the risks to gold prices. In Japan, by contrast, turnover in gold futures continued to rise in December."

"Activity in energy derivatives declined in the fourth quarter from the hurricane-related peak in the summer. The largest drop in activity was recorded in Asian markets (–13%), followed by North American (–12%) and European exchanges (–4%). Lower trading activity may have been driven by a downward reassessment of growth in global oil demand."

"Total cross-border claims grew strongly for a third consecutive quarter, although at a slightly lower rate than in the previous two. Interbank activity, mainly in the euro area and Switzerland, accounted for slightly more than half of the $533 billion rise in BIS reporting banks’ total claims in the third quarter of 2005. This pushed the outstanding stock of claims to $20.7 trillion and the year-on-year growth rate to 18.2%, the highest rate recorded in the BIS statistics since the third quarter of 1987."

"OPEC member states, plus other, non-OPEC oil exporters,2 deposited a combined $82 billion with BIS reporting banks in the third quarter, the largest quarterly placement by this group of countries recorded in the BIS statistics. Deposits by residents of OPEC member countries totalled
$46 billion and were primarily US dollar-denominated, leaving the US dollar share of reporting banks’ total liabilities vis-à-vis OPEC member states relatively unchanged at 72%. Residents of non-OPEC oil-exporting countries, primarily Norway but also Mexico and Russia, placed an additional $36 billion in funds with BIS reporting banks. Overall, the US dollar share of total liabilities vis-à-vis non-OPEC oil exporters fell to 61% in the most recent quarter, from 62% in the previous quarter and close to 80% prior to end-2002."

"Over the last 15 years, roughly 16% of BIS reporting banks’ total liabilities to OPEC member countries have been reported by banks located in the United States. The share of petrodollars being placed in the United Kingdom has drifted down, from close to 35% in 1985 to near 25% in the most recent quarter. By contrast, as their oil revenues and foreign placements have expanded, residents of non-OPEC oil-exporting countries have increasingly
channelled their deposits through banks in the United Kingdom. These banks’ share of total liabilities to non-OPEC oil-exporting countries rose from 22% in 2002 to over 35% in the most recent quarter."

"The agencies were once again the most active issuers from the United States, accounting for 36% of US gross issuance. Nonetheless, there were some sharp differences in the borrowing activity across them. In particular,
Freddie Mac continued to expand its participation in the international market in the fourth quarter, with gross and net issuance increasing by 45% and 212%, respectively. The agency accounted for almost 25% of total net
borrowing by US entities during the quarter. By contrast, Fannie Mae continued to retreat from the international bond market, with net issuance of –$12.8 billion. This was probably the result of Fannie Mae continuing to scale
back its mortgage portfolio in the fourth quarter, even after meeting a capital surplus requirement for the end of September which had been imposed by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight. Supporting the large increase in issuance by Freddie Mac during the quarter were several deals in excess of $1 billion that spanned the maturity spectrum from 1.5 years to 30 years. For instance, Freddie Mac issued four medium-term notes with a face value of $4 billion each. The maturities of these
notes ranged from two years (launched at a spread of 24.5 basis points over US Treasuries) to 10 years (at a spread of 36.5 basis points). The risk of an adjustment to the US dollar seems to have had little negative impact on dollar-denominated bond issuance in the international market. The share of issuance in US dollars held fairly steady throughout 2005. In the fourth quarter, the proportion of bonds and notes denominated in US dollars issued by US entities actually rose slightly, from 77% to 79%; the
fraction issued by nationals from other countries excluding the euro area was unchanged, while the fraction of issuance in US dollars by euro area entities declined somewhat in the midst of a strong rebound in the issuance of eurodenominated bonds and notes by euro area nationals. One factor potentially favouring the demand for US dollar issuance in recent months was that government bond yields continued to be higher in the United States than in the euro area."

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.March Special#1421683/6/06; 11:02:16

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Special discounts on this special allotment!

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UsulLSE to launch silver tracker fund#1421693/6/06; 13:40:28

... but it won't be physically backed by the underlying commodity... which of course makes it paper silver. Those investors buying paper silver won't be taking any silver off the warehouse shelves. That leaves open the question of shenanigans, such as whether the same silver might be sold twice, or lent out for shorting...
TownCrierTime machine#1421703/6/06; 14:51:57

On one level I can appreciate price-retracement days like this -- it's like stepping back in time (in this case a whole week) to last Monday, when the price was previously a shade under $555.

Ahhh... a second chance to be that young again!


Gandalf the WhiteQuestion for POG Contest #1421713/6/06; 15:08:40

Can you all say "VOLATILITY" ?

TownCrierFed buys Treasuries#1421723/6/06; 15:36:01

The Federal Reserve was active again today buying Treasury debt outright in the open market and thus boosting the 'permanent' money supply with fresh cash created in the course of the transaction. The $850 million operation targeted coupons maturing September 2010 to February 2014.

Put on your thinking cap. From a currency user or saver's standpoint, do you think it is 'wholesome' for a central bank to monetize its government's debt like this -- that is, propping bond prices (hence curbing the market's interest rate signals) while at the same time boosting the money supply?

Would it be any better for the Fed to be buying foreign bonds to facilitate its permanent additions to money supply?

Similarly, should foreign central banks bestow the blessing of low interest rates to U.S.-issued debt while all others go begging, so to speak?

Given ample time for study and thought, you will conclude (as have a growing coalition of central bankers) that a shifting of these operations to open market gold transactions will provide not only a more solid foundation for the 'permanent' money supply, but also a more equitable and 'wholesome' economic alignment/leveling of the international playing field.

For obvious reasons, the US Fed will resist the longest, being the last player to join that free-floating MTM-gold-reserve bandwagon.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1421733/6/06; 16:21:03">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

MONDAY Market Excerpts

Gold down in technical trading

March 6 (from DowJones) -- Long liquidation accelerated in gold as certain chart levels were broken, leaving the metal sharply lower in New York Monday, traders reported.

April gold futures settled down $11.20 to $556.80.

"There is no fundamental reason for it," said one trader of gold's weakness. "It was just a little profit-taking that became technical."

As gold initially moved lower, traders cited the stronger U.S. dollar and weaker crude oil. Until late morning, April gold had been holding right around $566. But then it tumbled all the way to a low for the day of $553.50.

"There was stop-loss selling in fairly illiquid market conditions," said Bernard Hunter, director of precious metals at Scotia Mocatta.

Tom O'Brien, editor of "The Gold Report," commented that mining stocks at the moment appear to be pulling the gold futures lower.

He commented that equities of companies such as Newmont and Royal Gold are "thundering down" on heavy volume.

"Those two equities actually led the (gold) contract," said O'Brien. "They have been going down, much faster, with volume, than the actual contract.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

el dorado$$$$600.00$$$$#1421743/6/06; 16:58:32

The Ides of March belong to another, more superstitious era. I do not think we or gold ever "beware" this date. Much more of an impact will be the "winds of war" and oil for euros.
el dorado

The Knife$$$$$$$567.60$$$$$$$$$#1421753/6/06; 17:14:28

The Ides of March...Fear not an excellent opportunity to prepare yourself for the future economy. Gold at current levels is still a bargain. Wait till demand outstrips supply more than it already has. Premiums will go up, government restrictions are likely, and worldwide competition as buyers will increase. Don't delay, use March as a building grounds for your portfolio.
otish mountainOn the Trail a little bit#1421763/6/06; 17:28:00

Nixon's default precipitated the "oil crises" of the early 70s. It was really a dollar crisis. The Arabs, particularly the royal family of Saud, were not keen to trade oil for paper. We struck a deal with the sheiks that saved the Empire.

In exchange for military protection, the Saudis, and with them OPEC, would trade oil only for dollars. The deal would keep the Saud family in power and the world in need of lots of dollars. The dollar was suddenly backed by oil instead of gold.

See link for the rest of the story

Black BladeGold Stock or Gold Metal?#1421773/6/06; 17:37:02

There is a profound difference between owning gold mining stocks and physical gold as we here all know. Gold stocks are investments and tend to be volatile. Physical gold is "portfolio insurance" and should be the firm foundation for all investment portfolios. When Rep. Ron Paul asked former Fed Head Alan Greenspan about selling off the US deposits of gold, Al came clean and stated that gold was "the ultimate insurance" in our financial system when all else fails.

For a somewhat sad and yet kid of amusing tale of a RSA gold miner and the resulting legal mess and shareholder angst one only need to follow the Kebble Klan Saga as shareholders hoping to capitalize on a rising gold price are now worried that their investments have "vaporized" (see link)

- Black Blade

Black BladeSaga Continues...#1421783/6/06; 17:42:04

The RSA soap opera over the possible demise of the JCI mining group is a rather bizarre story (see link). Gold in hand is not the same as owning gold mining shares. In fact physical gold has outpaced the gold share index more often than not during this new secular bull market.

- Black Blade

Mthirsty1$$$$564.7$$$$#1421793/6/06; 17:55:50

I did not even know what the Ides of march were until i saw it come up on the site.Thank you,it made me study.I do not think that the Ides of march will have any effect on the price of gold.From what i have learned it is nothing more than superstition,And if you look far enough there is a similar saying for every month of the year.I think that the person who warned Ceaser of his demise just got lucky.Gold will follow the direction of the things that you have taught me on this site.(P.S.I hope the person who predicted the price above 700 wins the contest)
Black BladeNice Gold Liberty Coins!#1421803/6/06; 17:56:15

My favorite pre-1933 gold coins are up for sale! Very nice indeed!

- Black Blade

The Invisible HandCan you read English? - South-Koreans can#1421813/6/06; 19:39:18
US Treasury Secretary John Snow has told Congress to raise the government's credit limit in order to avoid having some of its operations shut down.
‘DORNA Kouzehgar (dorna)Ohmy
News International - SOUTH KOREA
If you upset Saudi Arabia and they switch oil to Euro's, then Americawill collapse. End of superpower. This is about the Iranian oils Bourse that will challenge the US/UK monopoly. Iran will trade in Euro and if Saudia Arabia use Iran, which id likely, the they will move all liquidity from the US banking system. The US dollar will crash as there's no gold standard and they are in dire debt.

SmeagolGo ahead, BITE that hand that FEEDS you, precious! #1421823/6/06; 19:45:21

From the Africa MAil & Guardian
"Zimbabwe Govt Demands Controlling Stake in Mines

Harare, Zimbabwe
04 March 2006 12:04
Zimbabwe will amend its mining laws to allow the government to demand a 51% share in some foreign-owned mines, an official announced on Friday.

"The government wants to be an active participant in the mining business ... In effect I am saying the principles to the Amendments of the Mines and Minerals Act have been presented and approved by Cabinet," Mining Minister Amos Midzi told reporters in Harare.

The amendments will be tabled before Parliament for final approval before July, Midzi added.

He said this would allow the government to hold a 51% shareholding in each of the foreign-owned mines in the energy mining sector, which includes minerals such as coal, uranium and methane gas.

The government would initially take up a 25% share which would gradually be increased to 51% over a period of five years, Midzi said.

"The modalities of achieving the 51% shall be: 25% non-contributory immediately after promulgation of the Act. The balance shall be achieved within five years."

>>>>>The same would apply to platinum, diamond and gold mines.<<<<<

Zimbabwe's mining sector has seen the closure of at least 13 mines in the past six years, according to the Chamber of Mines, an organisation representing mining firms.

The sector has been hard-hit by an acute shortage of spare parts fuelled by a foreign exchange crunch, spiralling inflation, a free-falling currency, erratic power supplies and higher production costs.

Zimbabwe has seen its mining sector stagnate after President Robert Mugabe last year warned that the government would demand a 50% stake in all mines.

The mining sector last year earned $626-million, representing 44% of Zimbabwe's total foreign currency revenues, according to Reserve Bank figures. - Sapa-AFP"


Ssome idiotss never learn....


Sundeck$$$$587.00$$$$#1421833/6/06; 21:09:59

The questions: "Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"


On 15th March 2006, the price of gold will be startled by an impending increase in the US debt-limit, a likely increase in Japanese interest rates, the soon-to-be-launched Iranian Oil Bourse, the ominous count-down to the date from which the Fed 'ides the M3 monetary aggregate, and the eerie wailing of Caesar's Ghost. The dollar will get an 'iding too. Greatly alarmed, the POG will leap upwards to settle at $587.0.

All forum posters should Beware the Ides of March 2006 because on that day...TAA-DAA...TAA-DAA!!... Sundeck wins the POG guessing competition and rejoices in his good fortune.... For other posters, a glumness will settle upon the land...not to be relieved until Gandalf's great trumpet again sounds the call to contest...


Smeagol@ Ssir Sundeck#1421843/6/06; 22:31:56

Nice! ~8-)


Golden LionheartSorry Sir Sundeck#1421853/6/06; 23:37:01

But I have a feeling the prize is coming "down-under" to me in Western Australia. But like someone else I hope the winner is the person who forecast a price over $700.

I am sure we are going to see some dramatic action before the end of 2006.



$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

At the request of SIR MK, USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the APRIL, 2006 Comex contract (GCJ06) on Wednesday, March 15, 2006, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, March 12, 2006, AND ALL ENTRIES must answer SIR MK's QUESTIONS !!

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive an uncirculated Mexician 10 Peso GOLDPIECE which contains Actual Gold Content of 0.2411 fine ozs of GOLD.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce pure Silver U.S. Eagle.

The QUESTIONS -- (actually two Questions) <;-) --
(Put on your THINKING HATS !)

The questions are, -- "Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2006 Gold Contract (GCJ06) on the date of Wednesday, March 15, 2006.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $567.8)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $567.8 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on: Sunday, March 12, 2006.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)

--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph (more or less) discussing;
LET the CONTEST continue !

GoldiloxTreasury Dept. Moves to Avoid Debt Limit#1421873/7/06; 00:27:05


WASHINGTON -- Treasury Secretary John Snow notified Congress on Monday that the administration has now taken "all prudent and legal actions," including tapping certain government retirement funds, to keep from hitting the $8.2 trillion national debt limit.

In a letter to Congress, Snow urged lawmakers to pass a new debt ceiling immediately to avoid the nation's first-ever default on its obligations.

"I know that you share the president's and my commitment to maintaining the full faith and credit of the U.S. government," Snow said in his letter to leaders in the House and Senate.

Treasury officials, briefing congressional aides last week, said that the government will run out of maneuvering room to keep from exceeding the current limit sometime during the week of March 20.

Snow in his letter notified lawmakers that Treasury would begin tapping the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund, which Treasury officials said would provide a "few billion" dollars in extra borrowing ability.

Treasury officials also announced that on Friday they had used the $15 billion in the Exchange Stabilization Fund, a reserve that the Treasury secretary has that is normally used to smooth out volatile movements in the value of the dollar in currency markets.

Treasury has also been taking investments out of a $65.3 billion government pension fund known as the G-fund.

Officials have said that once the debt limit is raised, the investments taken out of the pension funds would be replaced and any lost interest payments would be made up. The formal title for the G-fund is the Government Securities Investment Fund of the Federal Employees Retirement System.

Democrats hope to use the upcoming congressional debate over raising the debt limit to highlight what they see as the failings of the administration's economic program with its emphasis on sweeping tax cuts.

An actual default on the debt, a situation when the government misses making payments to current bondholders, is a doomsday scenario considered highly unlikely given what it would do to the government's credit rating.

It is expected that after intense debate, Congress will approve an increase in the current $8.18 trillion debt limit by perhaps $781 billion.

But Rep. Charles Rangel, the top Democrat on the House Ways and Means Committee, said Monday that any further increase in the debt limit should be tied to legislation that would get future deficits under control.

"Simply raising the limit on George W. Bush's credit card and crossing our fingers won't solve anything," Rangel, D-N.Y., said in a statement. "Any long-term debt limit increase must be accompanied by a serious effort to bring our budget back to the balance we achieved under the Clinton administration."

Treasury Department spokesman Tony Fratto said it was critical for Congress to act before leaving for a spring recess on March 17. He said Snow planned a number of meetings with lawmakers this week to discuss the urgency of taking action.

The administration has sent Congress a budget that on paper would cut the deficit in half by 2009, the year President Bush leaves office.

But Democrats contend the administration met its deficit-reduction goal only by leaving out major spending items such as the full costs of the Iraq war. They say the deficit will not improve unless Bush abandons his effort to make his first-term tax cuts permanent.

Sen. Max Baucus, D-Mont., said last week that under President Bush the total of the deficits has increased by $3 trillion, a 40 percent increase from where the national debt _ the total of previous deficits _ stood when Bush took office in January 2001.


It's pretty obvious that no one in Washinton ACDC has a clue!



The "Ides of March" POG CONTEST

Following are listed the POG CONTEST entries !
(Listed in order of DECREASING values)

Thanks for the GREAT answers to the QUESTIONS. <;-)

$$$$ $750.0 $$$$ Beamer (3/3/06; 16:07:46MT - msg#: 142093)

$$$$ $600.0 $$$$ el dorado (3/6/06; 16:58:32MT - msg#: 142174)

$$$$ $587.0 $$$$ Sundeck (3/6/06; 21:09:59MT - msg#: 142183)

$$$$ $585.8 $$$$ Waverider (3/4/06; 21:01:58MT - msg#: 142114)

$$$$ $583.4 $$$$ Flatliner (3/3/06; 10:39:39MT - msg#: 142088)

$$$$ $580.1 $$$$ Slowman (3/5/06; 15:33:02MT - msg#: 142138)

$$$$ $577.1 $$$$ Chally (3/5/06; 22:37:54MT - msg#: 142151)

$$$$ $574.5 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (3/5/06; 13:28:05MT - msg#: 142135)
**** $574.4 **** arbyh (3/5/06; 11:43:24MT - msg#: 142133)

$$$$ $570.0 $$$$ Liberty Head (3/5/06; 14:02:09MT - msg#: 142137)

$$$$ $568.8 $$$$ Beer Man (03/04/06; 12:17:16MT - msg#: 142102)

$$$$ $568.4 $$$$ Freedom (3/5/06; 11:12:11MT - msg#: 142131)

$$$$ $567.6 $$$$ The Knife (3/6/06; 17:14:28MT - msg#: 142175)

$$$$ $565.0 $$$$ Rocky (3/3/06; 14:30:02MT - msg#: 142091)

$$$$ $564.7 $$$$ Mthirsty1 (3/6/06; 17:55:50MT - msg#: 142179)

$$$ FRN560.5 $$$ Smeagol (3/4/06; 18:22:20MT - msg#: 142108)

$$$$ $549.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (3/4/06; 22:13:41MT - msg#: 142117)

$$$$ $546.5 $$$$ Topaz (3/4/06; 20:26:10MT - msg#: 142112)


WaveriderSir MK#1421893/7/06; 06:16:04

...hehehe....I know what DAY it is Sir....


Wishing you a Golden day and all the best!! Cheers,


Clink!$$$$ 572.0 $$$$#1421903/7/06; 06:40:36

"Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"

It was Rene Descartes who wrote "Je pense, donce je suis." The reverse, however, is not always true. One cannot say "It is, therefore it thinks" with any degree of certainty. Such is the situation with gold. It cannot think. Therefore it doesn't have psychological turning points. It will continue to exist in blissful oblivion as these Ides, and many more beyond our brief span of years in this turn of life, join others in the dusty corridors of time past. Quod erat demonstrandum.

As for us, we already walk on eggshells. We are all painfully aware from news items all around the world brought here that the S is going to hit the F at some stage, and some time sooner than later probably. We are amazed that, apparently, it was more important on Sunday for 25 million people to find out by watching one of the most amazing tools invented by Man that a dumb song whose lyrics consisted of repeating ad infinitum "It's hard up here to be a pimp" (Neat marketing - you don't have to worry about remembering the lyrics or the title, but not both !) at some industry trade show. If we are the ants, and they are the grasshoppers, so be it. We can take a path between doing nothing to doing a George Ure or even a Eustace Conway. The important thing is to live our lives as best we can, without forever looking back over our shoulder in case the sky really is falling (this time). If it is, I am confident that I will read about it first here on the 15th !!


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GoldiloxFarewell 11000? (or Fib vs. fib)#1421923/7/06; 11:12:28


Still, I'd argue that by any measure of their weak recovery post 9/11, the US financial markets have come nowhere near the all-time high of the Dow (the week of 1/14/2000) around 11,723 on a weekly closing basis.

Using the Federal Reserve's own inflation calculations (a link to their online inflation calculator is in the left margin), you'll see that just to break even, a Dow of 11,723 in 2000 would need to be worth 13,785.76 today. But with my People's Economist hat on, I'd argue it's actually worse than that. The all time high was approached in late 1999 and so we might want to use 11,497.1 from late 1999 which would put us at 13,974.57 today.

Market technicians have dismissed my efforts to point out this lack of advance on an inflation-corrected basis by dismissing the notion that the Dow is just completing its first post-Crash II bounce of about 80%. Yet when I use the aggressive 13,974.57 number versus the recently weekly high actual 11,115.3 (week ending 2/19/2006), the purchasing power bounce of the market pencils out at 79.53%. When I use 2000 date instead of the 1999 inflation basis, I get 80.62%.

It's more than slightly troubling that the mid-point between this two values is just about smack on for an 80% retracement on a purchasing power corrected basis which the Fed Inflation Calculator should capture.

Now, depending on which stock you picked, the purchasing power equivalency may be off a bit because you might have owned stocks that paid a dividend. But even if you include those, the bulk of stocks aren't paying dividends, and as Warren Buffett so eloquently pointed out in his annual letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway this past week, it may be why stock buybacks have been so favored by the CEO's running things.

As we await the arrival of the context changing predicted by the web bots for less than 3-4 weeks from now, I'd suggest that if you plan to have anything left of your retirement savings, that you at least consider battening down for what could be a financial maelstrom in the weeks ahead. We're also looking for two major international crisis this summer and an outbreak of war [perhaps as a global event] at the end of August/early September timeframe.


And George is using the Fed's hedonically "busted" calculator. "Raw inflation numbers" could put the equivalence numbers for the DOW closer to 16K, and a gold-basis says it's 24K, but hey, what's a few percentage points between friends, right?

GoldiloxContest Question#1421933/7/06; 12:45:03

$$$$ FRN564.0 $$$$ (I'll go with Smeagol's designation)

"Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"

I think the "significant turning point" has long ago passed. When examining the historical price charts in the USA Gold Reference Library (thanks, TC), the "trend" from 1980 to late 2001, was down, down, down. What we witnessed after 911 was the REAL turning point, as we have seen POG go up, up, and away from there.

For those who get too bogged down in the daily action, look at this chart for a quick reminder that the "trend has been our friend" since 2001.

I don't think the Ides of March hold any particular revelations, but more, perhaps, of the same. The web bots are reminding us that the emotive values continually neutering the NeoCon war birds has a cumulative effect. We see confidence in the US admin and its "common share" dropping like insects in a bug-bomb. And like those bugs, the NeoCons are drawn to the light for more of the same. ZZZAPPP! We also see more and more third (and second) world governments challenging the US $ hegemony, even while Bennie the Blade warms up his chopper motors for "post-M3 action".

Gold is on a run unlike any before: not really like 1980, as that was a containable almost local, event - much more like a "bubble". The rapid slope of 1980 may not be repeatable, but the amplitude rise of the current run may very well exceed 1980's wildest dreams, while stretching out more sustainably on the time scale.

Technicals may drive events like 1980, but the fundamentals for gold are MUCH stronger and globally pervasive.

GoldiloxP.S.#1421943/7/06; 12:53:55

Notice how closely the '01-06 rise resembles the more compact '77-80 rise. The technicals may be "stretching us out", but the cumulative effect is the same!

Any bonehead geopolitical events, like more war demands on the already struggling economy, might precipitate a 1980 bubble in addition to the strong fundmental rise.

Hmmm . . . five posters since midnight, including LW's birthday wish for the Castle Lord.

Where is everybody?

TownCrierGoldilox, locations#1421953/7/06; 13:44:46

"Where is everybody?"

I can't speak for EVERY body, but ONE of us has been busy in the photo lab.


SmeagolDreaming, maybe....#1421963/7/06; 13:48:49

Gold sleeps fitfully... and sso it sseems the Casstle is drowsy too...

....or maybe they're preparing surprise birthday postings for Ssir MK?

(not TOO loudly) A Golden Birthday to you, Michael! And may you have many more and even better.


GoldiloxSA giants set to oppose Harare's mine-grab bid #1421973/7/06; 14:19:00


MAJOR South African mining groups with operations in Zimbabwe are expected to raise strong opposition to the Zimbabwean government's plans to take a majority stake in mining operations, almost half of which it would not pay for.

The value of Zimbabwe's mining sector is estimated to be at least US$20bn. The country has the second-largest resources of platinum in the world after SA.

Analysts say the plan, reminiscent of Zimbabwe's chaotic land seizures, would destroy mining, one of the last few remaining working sectors of the economy.

They warned the move could inflict further irreparable damage to the mining sector, which was already reeling from the effects of the prevailing economic crisis.

Independent consultant John Robertson said the new legislation amounted to "economic sabotage" against an already collapsing economy.

He said it would keep new investors at bay and hurt those already in, while reducing prospects of economic recovery.

According to media reports in Zimbabwe and local sources, Zimbabwean Minister of Mines Amos Midzi told the Zimbabwe Chamber of Mines last week that the cabinet had approved draft proposals to require mining companies to surrender 51% of their assets to the government and/or indigenous groups, depending on the commodity. The government would pay only for 26% and the remainder would be a "free carry".


As usual, governments are never satisfied with the "tribute" they already receive.

glockmaster19My Guess#1421983/7/06; 14:33:19

$$$$ 571.9 $$$$
"Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"

Do not beware the Ides of March. Enjoy the Ides. It will be good for gold, and thus good for us.

March will be a turning point for the masses who know nothing of gold, but not for us. We know the bright future of gold, while others do not.

The USA must not allow the Iran Oil Bourse to succeed. If it does, the dollar drops hard. If the USA tries to stop the Iran Oil Bourse, war will start. That will not help the dollar, and it will raise oil prices. Both will help gold go higher.

SmeagolGrrrr.... ~>8-(#1421993/7/06; 14:33:23

Anytime a government like Zimbabwe tries to pull that kind of stunt the companies should give them the finger, pull up sstakes, go to greener pastures and let the fat useless government idiotss figure out how to get the work done.


Golden LionheartChronia Polla Michael!#1422003/7/06; 14:49:10

And may the following twelve months be a Golden Year for you.
The Invisible HandFarewell 11000? – not in the Philippines#1422013/7/06; 15:00:50

In fact, there seems to be a statement that the country is in very good shape...the stock market is very good, investors are putting their money. Where is the emergency in the economy then?" [Philippine Chief Justice Artemio] Panganiban said.

What was that again before the 1929 crash? The stock markets have reached an everlasting high level? Or they are on such a high plateau?

Cometosehere's a gold mine ..................#1422023/7/06; 15:13:55

If you can take the time to read ..........

(Here's an american hero ...........a heart warming homespun tale with all the side dishes.........)

you will realize after reading a while .........
that you have been living in and illusion .......

quite Ozlike really..........

This is only one of the illusions we live with every day

The other obvious ones are SPACE and TIME .....those however were given by the Grace of God.

Cometosegold mine #1422033/7/06; 15:14:28

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1422043/7/06; 15:48:22">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

TUESDAY Market Excerpts

March 7 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed at a more than one-week low Tuesday, marking a three-session loss of almost $16 an ounce as traders reacted to expectations that a compromise over Iran's nuclear program could be worked out.

Iran has offered to suspend full-scale uranium enrichment for up to two years, according to an Associated Press report that cited comments from a diplomat in Vienna, where the International Atomic Energy Agency was holding a board meeting. IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei said Monday that he's optimistic the crisis over Iran's nuclear-research program could be resolved without U.N. Security Council intervention, according to news reports.

"The funds like to 'whip up the surf,' which is where Iran enters the picture," said Julian Phillips, an analyst at

COMEX April gold contracts fell as far as $549.50 then recovered slightly to finish at $554.50, down $2.30 at its lowest close since Feb. 23.

The contract has tallied a loss of $15.90 an ounce from weakness on Friday, Monday and Tuesday.

Even so, "off-stage acceptance of the $500-plus levels has been building, so the falls will stop where physical demand wants it to," said Phillips.

GoldiloxAl's story#1422053/7/06; 17:02:34

@ Cometose,

Not at all unlike the persecution of Tesla, Wilhelm Reich, Jim McCanney, John Hutchinson, and numerous others who have "dared" question the established technological and legal "religions".

Just think, the judges who sentenced Microsoft for uncompetitive practices ruled that they should give their product to public schools "free". Since that was one of Apple's last strong PC markets, who was really penalized, and how did this curtail the monopoly?

Who was the gold dealer that experienced the same jackboot garbage in Kentucky or Tennessee for advertising "Gold as money"?

Thanks for posting.

BoilermakerTwain on Cats and Buffet on Derivatives#1422063/7/06; 18:10:40

Snip from letter to Berkshire-Hathaway stockholders:

Long ago, Mark Twain said: "A man who tries to carry a cat home by its tail will learn a lesson
that can be learned in no other way." If Twain were around now, he might try winding up a derivatives
business. After a few days, he would opt for cats.
We lost $104 million pre-tax last year in our continuing attempt to exit Gen Re's derivative
operation. Our aggregate losses since we began this endeavor total $404 million.
Originally we had 23,218 contracts outstanding. By the start of 2005 we were down to 2,890.
You might expect that our losses would have been stemmed by this point, but the blood has kept flowing.
Reducing our inventory to 741 contracts last year cost us the $104 million mentioned above.
Remember that the rationale for establishing this unit in 1990 was Gen Re's wish to meet the
needs of insurance clients. Yet one of the contracts we liquidated in 2005 had a term of 100 years! It's
difficult to imagine what "need" such a contract could fulfill except, perhaps, the need of a compensationconscious
trader to have a long-dated contract on his books. Long contracts, or alternatively those with
multiple variables, are the most difficult to mark to market (the standard procedure used in accounting for
derivatives) and provide the most opportunity for "imagination" when traders are estimating their value.
Small wonder that traders promote them.
A business in which huge amounts of compensation flow from assumed numbers is obviously
fraught with danger. When two traders execute a transaction that has several, sometimes esoteric, variables
and a far-off settlement date, their respective firms must subsequently value these contracts whenever they
calculate their earnings. A given contract may be valued at one price by Firm A and at another by Firm B.
You can bet that the valuation differences – and I'm personally familiar with several that were huge – tend
to be tilted in a direction favoring higher earnings at each firm. It's a strange world in which two parties
can carry out a paper transaction that each can promptly report as profitable.
I dwell on our experience in derivatives each year for two reasons. One is personal and
unpleasant. The hard fact is that I have cost you a lot of money by not moving immediately to close down
Gen Re's trading operation. Both Charlie and I knew at the time of the Gen Re purchase that it was a
problem and told its management that we wanted to exit the business. It was my responsibility to make
sure that happened. Rather than address the situation head on, however, I wasted several years while we
attempted to sell the operation. That was a doomed endeavor because no realistic solution could have
extricated us from the maze of liabilities that was going to exist for decades. Our obligations were
particularly worrisome because their potential to explode could not be measured. Moreover, if severe
trouble occurred, we knew it was likely to correlate with problems elsewhere in financial markets.
So I failed in my attempt to exit painlessly, and in the meantime more trades were put on the
books. Fault me for dithering. (Charlie calls it thumb-sucking.) When a problem exists, whether in
personnel or in business operations, the time to act is now.
The second reason I regularly describe our problems in this area lies in the hope that our
experiences may prove instructive for managers, auditors and regulators. In a sense, we are a canary in this
business coal mine and should sing a song of warning as we expire. The number and value of derivative
contracts outstanding in the world continues to mushroom and is now a multiple of what existed in 1998,
the last time that financial chaos erupted.
Our experience should be particularly sobering because we were a better-than-average candidate
to exit gracefully. Gen Re was a relatively minor operator in the derivatives field. It has had the good
fortune to unwind its supposedly liquid positions in a benign market, all the while free of financial or other
pressures that might have forced it to conduct the liquidation in a less-than-efficient manner. Our
accounting in the past was conventional and actually thought to be conservative. Additionally, we know of
no bad behavior by anyone involved.
It could be a different story for others in the future. Imagine, if you will, one or more firms
(troubles often spread) with positions that are many multiples of ours attempting to liquidate in chaotic
markets and under extreme, and well-publicized, pressures. This is a scenario to which much attention
should be given now rather than after the fact. The time to have considered – and improved – the reliability
of New Orleans’ levees was before Katrina.
When we finally wind up Gen Re Securities, my feelings about its departure will be akin to those
expressed in a country song, "My wife ran away with my best friend, and I sure miss him a lot."

I saw this posted at Le Metropole. I don't own the stock and have no interest in doing so. Buffet sees the train wreck coming but hasn't added gold or a gold miner to his portfolio. He gets high marks for no BS and reporting the winners and the warts to his shareholders.

Armageddon $$$$$ $601.0 $$$$$$$#1422073/7/06; 18:25:32

"Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"
Yes, the Ides of March 2006 will be a significant turning point for gold in that the looming crisis over Iranian nuclear weapons will escalate greatly with no deal on stopping the Iranian nuclear program, thus driving gold over $600.00 per ounce. The average investor will begin to get scared into getting at least some gold.

Maybe. You should only BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH if you don't have any gold or gold stocks.

R PowellBirthday...?#1422083/7/06; 18:29:50

Is Waverider right?
Happy 59th..(?) it. No matter, enjoy the day!

SundeckWildcat devil derivatives#1422093/7/06; 21:33:52

Good one, Sir Boilermker #142206

Reading Buffett's comments is enough to take one's breath away. Here is a man, perhaps not the greatest derivatives-trader who ever lived, but almost certainly one of the shrewdest and most perceptive of investors who ever lived, giving a frank summary of his own relatively modest experience with the devil derivatives.

It seems that the boys and girls on Wall Street, or wherever, have substituted "wildcatting" in the derivatives markets for the adventuresome practise of wildcatting for oil, like they might have done in the good old days. "Gushing excitement" without ever having to move from your air-conditioned office and fancy screens. Seems like they want all of their wells to come in profits in gay anticipation...without even a drop to show for their "efforts"... Dusters don't exist in the derivatives game, it seems...they just get rolled-over and shunted-off into the distant future where, hopefully, no-one will be held to account. Or perhaps one just writes more derivatives to hedge any known, expected or unanticipated losses... As Buffett emphasises, all this may hang together in a benign environment, but what happens when the ground starts moving under everyone's feet? Its gonna be fun to watch...I certainly wouldn't wanna be nonchalently walking down Wall St when it happens...might get hit by a flying object!!

I trust Choppa Ben is familiar with the risks and has his hand upon the hydrant to dowse any fires that start-up unexpectedly...

Incidently, as you may know, Mark Twain lost heaps on "speculative" investments in the stock market...maybe just as well the full gammit of derivatives was not around in his day or he may have learned what it was like to carry both a cat and a devil by their tails...


...and a Very Happy Birthday to Sir MK! (Trust Lady Waverider to remember the important things...)




$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

At the request of SIR MK, USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the APRIL, 2006 Comex contract (GCJ06) on Wednesday, March 15, 2006, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, March 12, 2006, AND ALL ENTRIES must answer SIR MK's QUESTIONS !!

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive an uncirculated Mexician 10 Peso GOLDPIECE which contains Actual Gold Content of 0.2411 fine ozs of GOLD.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce pure Silver U.S. Eagle.

The QUESTIONS -- (actually two Questions) <;-) --
(Put on your THINKING HATS !)

The questions are, -- "Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2006 Gold Contract (GCJ06) on the date of Wednesday, March 15, 2006.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $567.8)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $567.8 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on: Sunday, March 12, 2006.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)

--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph (more or less) discussing;
LET the CONTEST continue !



The "Ides of March" POG CONTEST

Following are listed the POG CONTEST entries !
(Listed in order of DECREASING values)

Thanks for the GREAT answers to the QUESTIONS. <;-)

$$$$ $750.0 $$$$ Beamer (3/3/06; 16:07:46MT - msg#: 142093)

$$$$ $601.0 $$$$ Armageddon (3/7/06; 18:25:32MT - msg#: 142207)

$$$$ $600.0 $$$$ el dorado (3/6/06; 16:58:32MT - msg#: 142174)

$$$$ $587.0 $$$$ Sundeck (3/6/06; 21:09:59MT - msg#: 142183)

$$$$ $585.8 $$$$ Waverider (3/4/06; 21:01:58MT - msg#: 142114)

$$$$ $583.4 $$$$ Flatliner (3/3/06; 10:39:39MT - msg#: 142088)

$$$$ $580.1 $$$$ Slowman (3/5/06; 15:33:02MT - msg#: 142138)

$$$$ $577.1 $$$$ Chally (3/5/06; 22:37:54MT - msg#: 142151)

$$$$ $574.5 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (3/5/06; 13:28:05MT - msg#: 142135)
**** $574.4 **** arbyh (3/5/06; 11:43:24MT - msg#: 142133)

$$$$ $572.0 $$$$ Clink! (3/7/06; 06:40:36MT - msg#: 142190)
$$$$ $571.9 $$$$ glockmaster19 (3/7/06; 14:33:19MT - msg#: 142198)

$$$$ $570.0 $$$$ Liberty Head (3/5/06; 14:02:09MT - msg#: 142137)

$$$$ $568.8 $$$$ Beer Man (03/04/06; 12:17:16MT - msg#: 142102)

$$$$ $568.4 $$$$ Freedom (3/5/06; 11:12:11MT - msg#: 142131)

$$$$ $567.6 $$$$ The Knife (3/6/06; 17:14:28MT - msg#: 142175)

$$$$ $565.0 $$$$ Rocky (3/3/06; 14:30:02MT - msg#: 142091)

$$$$ $564.7 $$$$ Mthirsty1 (3/6/06; 17:55:50MT - msg#: 142179)

$$$ FRN564.0 $$$ Goldilox (3/7/06; 12:45:03MT - msg#: 142193)

$$$ FRN560.5 $$$ Smeagol (3/4/06; 18:22:20MT - msg#: 142108)

$$$$ $549.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (3/4/06; 22:13:41MT - msg#: 142117)

$$$$ $546.5 $$$$ Topaz (3/4/06; 20:26:10MT - msg#: 142112

tejbear$$$$ $530.0 $$$$#1422123/8/06; 04:54:08

Gandalf the White,

Sorry for such a low bid, but we appear to again be traveling through the New Year bullion slump, right before the triple witching hour.

1- "Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way?" No, that is to say, nothing is carved in concrete. For sure, the United States is walking down a very slippery economic slope, and a variety of different events could cause the dollar to tumble, driving up the POG. But with that said, one has to keep in mind that the world's banking systems, business systems & political systems are all working together to keep the current economic systems intact. Nobody wants change when the result of the change is so uncertain, i.e. they might end up losing money and power.

2- "Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?" Back in 44 B.C., Julius Caesar was assassinated during this period, so nasty things can happen. The forth-coming triple witching hour on Friday the 17th is another test of the battered banking-investment-trading system when options and futures on stock indices expire. This period is known for its high trading volume, volatile changes in prices in the futures, options, and the associated underlying securities markets, (part of the slippery slope). But again, the same invisible hands that are trying to keep things a float are behind the scenes trying to manipulate the events in many of these arenas. As their goal is to increase their money and power, they will not sit back and spin the bottle to see who comes up a winner.

However, if the moron decides to attack Iran, then, among other things, the price of oil will explode, vaulting the POG through the roof and ushering the world into the "dark times" of social unrest, countries scrambling for natural resources and the associated "little" wars.

The Bear

MKBirthday wishes#1422133/8/06; 07:56:01

Many thanks to those who posted and e-mailed me a happy birthday. Your kindness is appreciated. Still trying to figure out how Lady Waverider found out my birth date. . . .
KnallgoldStaring at the ETF's reality#1422143/8/06; 09:11:18

A new Silver ETF comes out which has no Silver backing-and the the price of the PM's take a dive?Maybe some smart investors start to realize the ETF paper scam?

I mean if the ETF tracks the Silver price and nobody buys the Silver,its pretty much first grade math to figure that out.

GoldiloxThe Printer's Ink#1422153/8/06; 09:15:32


Oh, it's a delicious relationship that Alan Greenspan has with printers ink. Not only did he engineer the many Fed interventions in the markets (with little more than paper and ink) but now, his latest "adventures with ink" will get him more than $8-million dollars - for his memoirs.

Speaking of the Fed: You might want to hop on over to the Federal Reserve's web site and download their M-3 data. The report, currently part of the H.6 Money Stock Measures reported weekly is due to "disappear" later this month. Why? Oh, because it shows monetary inflation running double digits. Maybe the Fed has lost control of money? Wanna bet on whether the report will give out preliminary February M-3 numbers before going bye-bye for good?


Double Digit inflation? NAW!

geIs the Iran Oil Bourse the casus belli? By F William Engdahl#1422163/8/06; 10:30:44

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.FREE Gold Information Packet...#1422173/8/06; 11:15:37

mikalBank report recommends commodities#1422183/8/06; 11:48:45

Commodity Prices to Continue Climbing Says Credit Suisse
Pullback offers buying opportunity
Demand to climb in 2006

mikalECB #1422193/8/06; 12:21:23,dwp_uuid=d4f2ab60-c98e-11d7-81c6-0820abe49a01,_i_rssPage=d4f2ab60-c98e-11d7-81c6-0820abe49a01.html

ECB Warns Against Asian Reserves Build-up - Ralph Atkins - Frankfurt - March 8, 2006 - Excerpts: "Asian countries’ rapid and "unprecedented" accumulation of foreign reserves is heightening the dangers of inflation and asset bubbles, the European Central Bank has warned..."
While it is debatable whether the "commendable growth" of the Greenspan era should be questioned as anything but amenable to the global economy, we should tolerate all viewpoints however extreme or seemingly irrational. And they just might have some wisdom that our children, or our children's children may need to take into account. :D

"...Other "risks and costs", according to the report, included the misallocation of investment, difficulties in managing monetary policy and "potentially sizable capital losses" at central banks if exchange rates were to change suddenly.
Its conclusions reflected central bankers’ fears that, while economies may have benefited from exchange rate stability, the delaying in adjustment has stored up greater dangers for the future."
Actual "central banker's fears" are never "reflected" publicly except indirectly to the most discerning. I wonder how they sleep at night.

Goldilox"Gold" on History Channel#1422203/8/06; 12:34:03

Mid-show right now. Just talked about the wreck of the "Central America" in 1857, and its effect on the already strained NY banks. They had once again overextended their gold note issue, expecting the huge shipment on the CA to refill their coffers.
TownCrierLatin American markets off again; wonder if good times over#1422213/8/06; 12:34:37

SAO PAULO, Brazil, March 8 (Reuters) - Financial markets in Latin America stumbled for a third straight day on Wednesday, pressured by worries that rising U.S. bond yields and higher global interest rates will lure capital away from developing countries.

Brazil's Bovespa stock index fell 2.32 percent and Mexico's IPC slipped 1.17 percent after both lost more than 2 percent on Tuesday.

Though the selling was less pronounced on Wednesday, this week's downdraft has left analysts wondering if emerging markets have entered a bearish trend as long feared, or if asset prices were just correcting after hitting record highs this year.

"We can say this trend is being driven by foreigners and that higher rates in the United States will complicate the short-term outlook," said Oscar Campos, an equities trader at Intervalores in Beunos Aires.

"Foreigners have started cutting positions to reduce risks," said Alexandre Vasarhelyi, a currency trader at ING in Sao Paulo.

Nonetheless, most Latin American countries are better prepared than ever to withstand a global sell-off, economists say.

^---(from url)---^

All things considered, gold looks as good as ever.

Additionally, the comments in this article -- about higher U.S. interest rates luring capital away from developing nations -- are curious.

After all, it has already been much discussed that the current inflow of capital from developing/emerging nations that has funded our deficits and has thereby kept interest rates low as a result.

In a Feburary speech at U.C.-Berkeley, IMF Managing Director Rodrigo de Rato had the following remarks on the affairs of global imbalances:
"I would like to talk today about the situation in the global economy, and especially about the problem of global economic imbalances. The phenomenon of economic imbalances between countries is not new, but globalization has profoundly affected both the size and the nature of such imbalances. For example, without globalization, a United States current account deficit at its current level could not be financed."

"...on the financing side, foreign investors and central banks seem to have an undiminished appetite for U.S. dollars. Why should they not simply continue to finance U.S. consumption?

"Of course, many features of the economic landscape that seem permanent eventually cease."

"There are two obvious ways in which global imbalances could unwind quickly, and in a very disruptive way. One would be an abrupt fall in the rate of consumption growth in the United States, which has been holding up the world economy. U.S. consumption growth has to slow because the negative household savings rate is unsustainable, and it will slow, perhaps on the back of slowing house price growth."

"Another possibility is that adjustment is forced by the financial side, because the real side is seen as unlikely to adjust on its own. Investors become unwilling to hold increasing amounts of U.S. financial assets..."

"The key challenge then is to unwind global imbalances gradually. To do this, it is important to abandon the pretence that global imbalances don't matter or will cure themselves. ...if imbalances are left to cure themselves, there is a much greater likelihood of the kind of abrupt and disorderly adjustment that would cause serious problems."

To make a long story short, somewhat contrary to the drift of the featured article, rather than attracting more financing as implied, a rising of market-determined U.S. rates would tend to indicate a relative falling off of demand for U.S. bonds.

When you think about the big picture and the structure of the world monetary system, in the face of imbalances and risk the only world-class asset you can hold confidently for net savings is gold, chief among tangibles.


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TownCrierOPEC agrees to keep taps open to cool oil prices#1422233/8/06; 13:17:34

VIENNA (Reuters) - OPEC said on Wednesday it will keep oil output close to the limit to bring prices within consumers' comfort zone and fill supply gaps, but a threat by Iran to review its oil exports cast a shadow.

OPEC President Edmund Daukoru confirmed there will be no change to the group's 28 million barrels per day ceiling -- "If we send completely the wrong signal prices could get out of control, so we have chosen a roll over."

Oil consumers have not felt this vulnerable for decades.

OPEC confirmed June 1 as the date of its next ministerial meeting in Caracas.

^---(from url)---^

Was gold's price relaxation instrumental in this oilprice-friendly decision?

In the economic real world where, at the end of the day, it is resources and tangibles that matter, a shrewd bargainer can often look past the price issue if it facilitates the end result; I'll give you THIS at a cheap pricetag if you give me THAT at a cheap pricetag. It keeps the superficial would-be speculators confused, off-balance, and out of the end market where the tangibles actually land.

Seeing through the fog, I can't store oil, but I'll happily keep taking more and more of the convenient gold for as long as this mutually-cheap exchange game is being played.


TownCrierGold trading range...#1422243/8/06; 14:39:07

(March 8, 2006) Gold took a nose-dive on March 6 --by about $10 per ounce-- and the downward trend continues this day with mid-day prices holding around $542 per ounce. But for the long-term, analysts hold to predictions that gold prices will continue to rise towards $600 per ounce due to uncertainty of global stock markets.

Peter Grandich, editor of the commodity investments 'Grandich Letter,' said "After an overflow of bullishness at the beginning of the New Year, the gold market has entered a broad trading range between $535 and $570."

"This is allowing a very overbought situation to correct itself and set the groundwork for an assault on $600 this spring," Grandich said.

^---(from url)---^

At current prices it sure looks like we've again arrived comfortably at the 'buy' end of that popularly-cited $535-$570 trading range. At this point, if you can conclude for yourself that you would certainly NOT want to SELL any of your gold at these prices, unless you're a fence-sitter you may further conclude that adding to your holdings is a reasonable course of action. It's all about identifying your place in the equation in which gold generally moves from economically distressed sellers to others who are economically strong and, hence, net savers (gold buyers).


Black BladeGold Down Draft#1422253/8/06; 14:44:23

Gold continued its slide lower today on fund selling more than anything else. Currency concerns were not an issue as it is widely expected that the BOJ will actually raise interest rates tomorrow. The reasoning that the "period of deflation" has ended. The result should be a relatively higher Yen vs the US dollar.

Oil dropped on inventory concerns. There was a large build in crude as refineries are cycling through a series of shut downs for their bi-annual maintenance schedules ahead of summer "driving season" that starts on or near the beginning of May. Also, gasoline imports are very string since the massive relief effort orchestrated by the IEA. The EU and Japan have been delivering gasoline from their strategic supplies to help out America after Katrina-Rita when refineries shut down from flooding along the GOM. In any case EIA crude oil inventory is at a 7-year high. On a side note - tomorrow is the release of NatGas storage data - another horrible number for energy bulls. We will finish this withdrawal season with a record high level of NatGas in storage going into injection season.

On Gold of course, the selling was largely from Hedge Funds and large Investment Houses followed by panicked small fry. Over the last three trading sessions stops were hit all along the way triggering more sales. This morning in Europe (on CNBC Europe), Mark Faber said that he expected to see a correction down to about $400, $450, 0r $480 an ounce (not very specific eh?). That didn't help as some bugs (and followers of Faber) took that as a sign to bail out commodities and Gold in particular. Even wildly profitable miners like Goldcorp tumbled sharply today in spite of a 460% profit gain last quarter.

Investors and those looking for a currency hedge and in particular for "portfolio insurance" would do well to think of these pull backs as a buying opportunity as the real fundamentals have not changed at all. If anything the fundies have strengthened. Yesterday Treasury sold Treasuries and in the process actually took on a bit of debt to stay under the "debt ceiling" (let's face it - it's just a "shell game" scam like taking Social Security and Government Pension funds and putting into the General Account). The "Twin Deficits" keep climbing, the "Current Account Deficit" is very ugly, American Savings rates are negative, and the "real rate" is negative. All these conditions are a screaming buy signal for Precious Metals.

I tend to watch the actions in New York and Chicago as an amusing circus. Notice that traders booed the opening bell this morning at the NYSE? The stock exchange will soon go largely electronic and floor traders will become unemployed as seat holders save money. As someone else pointed out these guys were cheering on the "new economy" that displaced millions of Americans in the 1990's casting many aside onto a growing "bone pile". As the poster pointed out - "what goes around comes around". I like to think of it as "live by the sword, die by the sword". But I digress. The point is - the Carnival Barkers on CNBC were falling over themselves today to focus on "falling commodity prices". That too is usually a signal to buy - when there is "blood in the streets" if you will.

Personally I see no change in the big picture and the Fundies have not changed. I am still strong on Gold and Silver. In fact, here's my usual advice:

Get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver "portfolio insurance", and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

Just the usual common sense for an uncertain outlook.

- Black Blade

Thoreauly@ Black Blade#1422263/8/06; 15:20:47

I tend to agree on the debt advice but can't help wondering if someone with a sizable investment portfolio (over $1 million, say) who owned his home outright wouldn't be wise to take out a home equity loan, being that interest rates so low and that housing prices have peaked, and invest in physical.

In other words, since his house is no longer rising in price, why not put some of the money he's got tied up in this non-income-producing asset into a non-income-producing asset that is in a long-term bull market?

TownCrierThoreauly, debt#1422273/8/06; 15:52:34

You're right to cast a clear eye upon the big picture and the nature of debt and money.

Assuming a reasonable asset base or reliable income stream, debtors can certainly emerge nicely from an inflationary environment in which the interest rates on their debt are fixed at low (or even negative) real levels as compared to the inflation rate.

One does well not to be dogmatic in a dynamic world.


Black BladeRe: Thoreauly#1422283/8/06; 15:54:59

Some have claimed to have done similar things. I tend to err on the side of caution. Why put the family home at risk - at any risk? Especially if it is paid for. Well, OK, no one really owns their own home because after all we only "rent" our homes after the mortgage is paid off. Just don't pay your local tax for example and it is "foreclosed" on by the local Stasi.

Anyway, if you have a million dollar home or investment portfolio then I would wonder why take such a risk. Surely there are other sources of income or credit that can be secured by someone with that much in assets. It doesn't take much to upset things these days. If the economy tanks then what? That's why I say have a "stash of emergency cash for several months' (household) expenses" and a "storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities". Gold and Silver are the "Golden Lifeboat" to float your "investment portfolio" across troubled waters when economic upheaval creates problems largely beyond your control.

Being in the natural resource industry myself I know how to survive economic cycles. I live in a "feast or famine" career path. I could have clients beating down my door one day and see an empty horizon the next. However,when I make money - I make "very good" money. The rest of the time I am unemployed and live off savings (the "cash stash", and "nonperishable food and basic necessities") and of course investment income. I just happen to not want to have a "sword" of debt hanging over my head.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents.


- Black Blade

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1422293/8/06; 16:22:04">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

WEDNESDAY Market Excerpts

March 8 (from DowJones) -- COMEX most-active April gold contracts tumbled $10.20 to $544.30. "There were a number of things affecting different commodities, but it turned out to be the same thing - a sell-off," said George Gero, vice president with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures.

"You had a sell-off in gold, crude, copper, platinum, palladium, silver, heating oil, natural gas -- all across the board I see a sea of red."

This appears to be long liquidation, although confirmation will not come until Wednesday's open-interest data is released on Thursday, said Gero. Lower open-interest data would confirm liquidation.

Gero and Dan Vaught, futures analyst with A.G. Edwards, both cited weaker energy prices and expectations for higher interest rates as bearish influences for the precious metals. Not only is the Federal Reserve expected to hike some more, but the European Central Bank has undertaken recent rate hikes and Japan is expected to start hiking as well. Higher interest rates hurt precious metals several ways, Gero explained. They combat inflation, which otherwise tends to be bullish for gold, and can attract investment flows from commodities back into fixed-income products.

As the precious metals were closing, April crude was down $1.78 to $59.80 a barrel.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

TownCrierGoogle knows... GOLD!#1422303/8/06; 16:39:32

3/8/2006 --
... At issue is a feature in Google's Desktop Search that lets people search for data on more than one computer....

Though Google says it takes steps to safeguard data that it keeps for as long as 30 days, those assurances may not be enough to allay the concerns of large companies. Sometimes, companies are required to ensure that customers' data are never out of their jurisdiction.

Google says it's mindful of concerns about security on Google Desktop Search.

In a recent blog posting, Google's Enterprise team writes, "We understand that a company's data is more precious than gold -- and you don't go passing your gold around."

^---(from url)---^

From a seemingly off-the-cuff analogy by the data-giant, Google, we see a refreshingly profound understanding of the precise essence of wealth vis à vis unambiguous gold ownership.


tejbearThoreauly, TownCrier & Black Blade #1422313/8/06; 18:02:45

Forum members:

Sizable investment portfolio? Think about it. A house wholly owned, with a current inflated value of ~$1,000,000 has no tax angle and is a considerable asset sitting that could be leveraged. By getting a 30 year fixed rate loan, you can increase you gold & silver holdings, while obtaining a significant income tax deduction. (Refinancing to buy a new RV is not recommended.)

The opportunities are still available. You might be able to get a JUMBO, (~$500,000) for what 5 to 6% fixed for 30 years? And don't forget, this is roughly 3 to 4% under the actual inflation rate, so your friendly Federal Reserve, via Repurchase Agreements, is actually helping subsidize you loan.

When the dollar collapses, the interest rates will increase considerably, and I think for a long time bring to an end the 30 year fixed rate mortgage. As both Paul Volker & Stephen Roach both believe the dollar is going to fall far and hard, paying back the mortgage in gold & silver profits is probable.

As it appears the dollar is closer to the abyss than I'd like, the "window of opportunity" for these mortgages is closing.

The Bear

ChallyWas it Sir Gandalf??#1422323/8/06; 19:12:22

A few days ago, when I was making my contest guess, I made a tongue-in-cheek (or so I thought) comment about having more to fear from Gandalf calling for a new contest than from the Ides. Hmmm...

...but seriously, is the latest mini-meltdown of the goldrice just another raid? Could the purpose be to drive down the price because of what will happen to it when? or if war with Iran becomes reality?

Is that possibility in fact a foregone reality? Are the movers and shakers in the gold market already looking PAST that event, and selling into what they see as a lessening of the tensions once a nuclear Iran is no longer a problem?

Has the deal already been inked? Will Israel be the instrument of War/Peace that will keep the US from getting it's hands dirty, and having to take more heat on the world stage?

Or is it REALLY just Gandalf and that infernal clarion that seems to repeatedly usher in a sell-off??

ChallyTrust no one? #1422333/8/06; 19:40:36

Somehow this seems more fitting for that 'other' castle, but I just had a bit of an unsettling incident just as I was finishing my last post, which I then revised and shortened out of frustration. So my previous IS the revised version.

The original was 99% in the can when suddenly, the whole dialog box flashed as if it had been 'selected' for a cut-n-paste or copy, then poof! the entire post was gone except for a lonely little 'r'(must have been the last letter I typed)

Now I'm not given to conspiracies, but I gotta ask...Was it Gandalf again.....or something more sinister? ; )

Chris PowellGold may be dangerous but it is innocent of all charges#1422343/8/06; 19:41:25

Latest GATA dispatch.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

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Gandalf the WhiteOOPS --- Sir Chally must be a mindreader ! <;-)#1422353/8/06; 21:03:06

OK --- I am now THINKING SILVER -- !
Are you ready Sir Rich ?
BTW -- Timing of POG CONTESTS is truly "concurrent" with MAXIMUM VOLATILITY !

mikal@tejbear#1422363/8/06; 22:24:05

Re: msg#142231 Good points. You may be right about "an end to the 30 yr fixed rate mortgage". But IMO, there will be a shift to more options with heavier use of 50 yr or 100 yr fixed rate mortgages.
Chris PowellBank for International Settlements confesses to gold price suppression scheme#1422373/9/06; 00:14:44

Latest GATA dispatch.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

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TownCrierMountains and/or molehills#1422383/9/06; 00:30:20

On BIS's Mr. White...

TownCrier (8/2/02; 14:09:58MT - msg#: 82133)

I'm still standing on my 4-year-old commentary regarding other gold-related remarks offered by Mr. White.

Chris, it is my feeling that you are making a tactical error in the interest of seeking a relevance beyond scope.




$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

At the request of SIR MK, USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the APRIL, 2006 Comex contract (GCJ06) on Wednesday, March 15, 2006, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, March 12, 2006, AND ALL ENTRIES must answer SIR MK's QUESTIONS !!

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive an uncirculated Mexician 10 Peso GOLDPIECE which contains Actual Gold Content of 0.2411 fine ozs of GOLD.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce pure Silver U.S. Eagle.

The QUESTIONS -- (actually two Questions) <;-) --
(Put on your THINKING HATS !)

The questions are, -- "Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2006 Gold Contract (GCJ06) on the date of Wednesday, March 15, 2006.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $567.8)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $567.8 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on: Sunday, March 12, 2006.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)

--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph (more or less) discussing;
LET the CONTEST continue !



The "Ides of March" POG CONTEST

Following are listed the POG CONTEST entries !
(Listed in order of DECREASING values)

Thanks for the GREAT answers to the QUESTIONS. <;-)

$$$$ $750.0 $$$$ Beamer (3/3/06; 16:07:46MT - msg#: 142093)

$$$$ $601.0 $$$$ Armageddon (3/7/06; 18:25:32MT - msg#: 142207)

$$$$ $600.0 $$$$ el dorado (3/6/06; 16:58:32MT - msg#: 142174)

$$$$ $587.0 $$$$ Sundeck (3/6/06; 21:09:59MT - msg#: 142183)

$$$$ $585.8 $$$$ Waverider (3/4/06; 21:01:58MT - msg#: 142114)

$$$$ $583.4 $$$$ Flatliner (3/3/06; 10:39:39MT - msg#: 142088)

$$$$ $580.1 $$$$ Slowman (3/5/06; 15:33:02MT - msg#: 142138)

$$$$ $577.1 $$$$ Chally (3/5/06; 22:37:54MT - msg#: 142151)

$$$$ $574.5 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (3/5/06; 13:28:05MT - msg#: 142135)
**** $574.4 **** arbyh (3/5/06; 11:43:24MT - msg#: 142133)

$$$$ $572.0 $$$$ Clink! (3/7/06; 06:40:36MT - msg#: 142190)
$$$$ $571.9 $$$$ glockmaster19 (3/7/06; 14:33:19MT - msg#: 142198)

$$$$ $570.0 $$$$ Liberty Head (3/5/06; 14:02:09MT - msg#: 142137)

$$$$ $568.8 $$$$ Beer Man (03/04/06; 12:17:16MT - msg#: 142102)

$$$$ $568.4 $$$$ Freedom (3/5/06; 11:12:11MT - msg#: 142131)

$$$$ $567.6 $$$$ The Knife (3/6/06; 17:14:28MT - msg#: 142175)

$$$$ $565.0 $$$$ Rocky (3/3/06; 14:30:02MT - msg#: 142091)

$$$$ $564.7 $$$$ Mthirsty1 (3/6/06; 17:55:50MT - msg#: 142179)

$$$ FRN564.0 $$$ Goldilox (3/7/06; 12:45:03MT - msg#: 142193)

$$$ FRN560.5 $$$ Smeagol (3/4/06; 18:22:20MT - msg#: 142108)

$$$$ $549.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (3/4/06; 22:13:41MT - msg#: 142117)

$$$$ $546.5 $$$$ Topaz (3/4/06; 20:26:10MT - msg#: 142112)

$$$$ $530.0 $$$$ tejbear (3/8/06; 04:54:08MT - msg#: 142212)

2023$$$$$ $559.8 $$$$$$$#1422413/9/06; 02:13:17

My short answers to MK's questions are,
1) "Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way?"
No I do not see March 2006 as a turning point for gold or anything else. I cannot predict the future though - i leave that to Mahendra and others. I think the market will do whatever it is going to do.....and i will stay with my longterm plans.

2) "Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?" I don't think the month of March has any longterm meaning to gold or anything else. The price on the April 2006 gold contract on march 15 will end at whatever the paper contract boys feel like playing until then.

Thanks for the great forum also.....good day all.

Chris PowellTC's comment on speech by W.R. White of BIS#1422423/9/06; 07:02:40

TC, forgive me but I don't understand
the point you're trying to make. My
point was only the point for which
GATA has been trying to win
acknowledgement from the beginning:
that central banks work constantly
and surreptitiously to suppress the
gold price and to rig markets that
are generally assumed to be free.

R asked........#1422433/9/06; 07:55:54

".....OK --- I am now THINKING SILVER -- !
Are you ready Sir Rich?"

Gandalf, I've been ready since 1996, ETFs or no ETFs

Beware the big moves, either way. Keep in mind the looooong term trend + the reasons (which won't change in any short time period) for it. 8>)

GoldiloxEncounter with Scarcity#1422443/9/06; 07:59:21

Great read over at UrbanSurvival. I'll leave the details to George, but the jist is fufillment of the web bot prognostication.

Leave us say, ammo and MRE's are first on the list. Not "happy thoughts".


GoldiloxIran 'the biggest US challenge'#1422453/9/06; 08:54:56


Iran may pose a greater challenge to the US than any other nation, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has said.
She said Iran was determined to develop nuclear weapons, was the "central banker for terrorism" in the Middle East and a block to democracy.

Her comments to a Congressional hearing in Washington came as Iran vowed to resist international pressure over its nuclear programme.

Iran insists it has the right to civilian nuclear technology.

It denies accusations from the US and EU that it is seeking to develop nuclear weapons.

"We may face no greater challenge from a single country than from Iran," Ms Rice said.


With epithets like "central banker", I guess Condi is really serious. Now, if they would just treat the other "Central Bankers" with similar disdain, we would be getting somewhere.

mdgc**** $606.6 ****#1422463/9/06; 09:02:14

1.Yes, we will all be manic. POG on upward spike slicing through $600

2.Beware surprises, pre-emptive war on Iran, Dubai Ports fiasco, Dick Cheney's resignation

GoldiloxA Break-In to End All Break-Ins#1422473/9/06; 09:16:44


In 1971, stolen FBI files exposed the government's domestic spying program.
by Allan M. Jalon

Thirty-five years ago today, a group of anonymous activists broke into the small, two-man office of the Federal Bureau of Investigation in Media, Pa., and stole more than 1,000 FBI documents that revealed years of systematic wiretapping, infiltration and media manipulation designed to suppress dissent.

The Citizens' Commission to Investigate the FBI, as the group called itself, forced its way in at night with a crowbar while much of the country was watching the Muhammad Ali-Joe Frazier fight. When agents arrived for work the next morning, they found the file cabinets virtually emptied.

Within a few weeks, the documents began to show up — mailed anonymously in manila envelopes with no return address — in the newsrooms of major American newspapers. When the Washington Post received copies, Atty. Gen. John N. Mitchell asked Executive Editor Ben Bradlee not to publish them because disclosure, he said, could "endanger the lives" of people involved in investigations on behalf of the United States.

Nevertheless, the Post broke the first story on March 24, 1971, after receiving an envelope with 14 FBI documents detailing how the bureau had enlisted a local police chief, letter carriers and a switchboard operator at Swarthmore College to spy on campus and black activist groups in the Philadelphia area.


Consume the "Bread and Circuses",
With newscasters but mimes.
While money doesn't talk, it swears,
And history but rhymes.

Happy birthday to some REAL patriots. . . you know, the kind the Patriot Act is designed to silence.

FlatlinerIs there a rebuttal?#1422483/9/06; 09:47:58

Forum members, who are most gracious with their time, are there positive ways to use ETFs? Or, has anyone analyzed them and discovered weaknesses or vulnerabilities in the process that they would be willing to share?

Also, is there anyone (lurkers all) that is not to shy as to state if they have been moved into, or out of, ETFs? In other words, did you believe at one time that they were as good as holding physical? Or, say, do you believe that holding an ETF is good enough that the benefits outweigh the drawbacks?

Personally, I have talked to investors that never questioned the process, but after just a couple minutes of logical thinking, they promptly dropped the ETF and ordered physical. Has anyone else experienced similar stories?

- FL

phil288flatliner#1422493/9/06; 10:18:48

For what it's worth I think Chris Laird is spot on, to coin a phrase. I suggest you call our host to solve your problem. Got Gold!
GoldiloxETFs#1422503/9/06; 10:20:47

@ Flatliner,

I have talked to a certain relative, a rather astute investor, and we agree on the viability of gold as an investment vehicle, but he plays the ETF like stocks. That way, he is not concerned with individual mining management foibles, and uses the quick "in & out" to his advantage when he can. I'm assuming he uses a Sinclair approach of "partial" trading, but I'm not intimate with his trading habits, so I don't know for sure.

He remains unconvinced of "imminent collapse" of paper vehicles, although I'm pretty sure he has some emergency physical stash, since the day I showed him how "pretty" the coins are.

Personally, for my paper plays, I prefer the risk and reward ratio of the stocks. My physical stash is not "in play", other than to accumulate when I can, and sell small amounts when I am strapped for cash.

geMajor Asian customers of Iranian oil persuaded?#1422513/9/06; 12:05:20

Picked up this interesting analysis from an obscure corner of internet:

China says they'll take Taiwan if US takes Iran.

China's craving for oil to drive its industrial boom.

China has been scrambling to look for another major energy supplier – Venezuela, anticipating that oil from Iran shall be cut off.

Bush bribed India with US nuclear technology in return for giving up Iranian oil.

This is just one of the many possible interpretations of the current events.

mikalFinance for dummies#1422523/9/06; 12:08:35

The Hidden Meaning of Derivatives and Defaults - Mark Gilbert - March 9, 2006 - Bloomberg - Snippit: "Last month, my fellow columnist John Dorfman published a tongue-halfway-in-cheek dictionary of stock market terms. In a similar vein, here's a suggested lexicon for the bond market.
Alpha: The amount of excess return promised by a hedge fund manager to justify his pocketing 2 percent of your capital and 20 percent of any profit. It seems there are only two ways to generate alpha. The first is to sell General Motors Corp. bonds and simultaneously buy those of its finance unit, GMAC. The second is to go long GMAC debt while being short GM securities. Anyone who can't see the difference between these two trades clearly isn't as bright as the hedge fund guys. They are displaying their individuality by making identical bets on GMAC regaining its investment-grade rating while GM slides further toward filing for bankruptcy protection.
Bond documentation: The legal papers accompanying the securities you bought a few months back. Remember? Small typeface, hundreds of pages, even duller than that Annie Proulx book you failed to finish on vacation? You filed them in the round basket on the floor next to your chair. Now, there are whispers that a gang of buyout firms may purchase the bond issuer and load it with debt, so you really, really need to read that small print. It's dumpster-diving time.
Broker: Anyone who drinks more than you do.
Cheap: Any bond yielding more than 4 percent.
Credit analyst: Someone who spent 2004 telling you why General Motors would hang on to its investment-grade rating, and will spend 2006 telling you why bankruptcy is inevitable.
Credit-default swap: (A) A way to insure your bond investments against non-payment by the borrower. (B) A security that lets traders bet against a company's creditworthiness, in sizes several times bigger than the company's outstanding debt, without filling in any pesky paperwork to settle the trades. (C) A derivative that allows fund managers to dodge the restrictions placed on their investment strategies by their trusty trustees.
Default: In the dim and distant past, issuers other than automakers would occasionally be unable to make their interest payments. Airlines, or telecommunications companies, for example. Even governments. Post-traumatic amnesia has allowed many investors to erase these painful memories, and default now applies solely to the auto industry, and is of no concern anywhere else. Russian bonds, Argentina's bills? Ship 'em in."

mikalInvisible gold bull market update#1422533/9/06; 13:48:28

Factoid: Wednesday several news wires reported that Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report said, "funds are selling to protect their dwindling asset base, pushing gold and silver to attractive levels."
And, "investors should be taking advantage of panic in the paper asset funds and start buying".
Factoid: Now MAY be an excellent time to pocket some unrecognized wealth- something quirky or barbarous, crusty or shiny at a higher, lower pricetag.
Factoid: Now IS an excellent time to go to at least 29.83% of your personal, familial and estimated assets in gold bullion and coins (with a splash of silver and paper if you're so predisposed) due to ongoing inflation, off-books market interventions and war spending, entitlement programs for all comers, debts public and private, asset bubbles, IRS extortion, regulatory disincentives aiding multinational monopolies, special-interest group subsidies, financial derivatives, snowballing decades-old capital, financial and monetary missallocations and imbalances, double-digits unemployment, governmental and corporate fraud and irresponsibility.
Disclaimer: NIA. Gold and silver can be very volatile- not for the uncommitted or feint of heart. You should not allocate more than you could afford to wager in any other "free, fair and open market" or insurance policy.
You should not overestimate the good will of strangers, in the consideration of asset storage. Commit only what you can afford to see bear fruit in fits and spurts.
Precious metals bourses may undergo arbitrary rule changes regarding position limits, price limits, trading sizes, hours of operation, position disclosure, opening and closing fix.

TownCrierBOJ ends unique super-loose monetary policy#1422543/9/06; 14:41:17

TOKYO, March 9 (Reuters) - Japan's central bank scrapped its super-loose monetary policy on Thursday but -- reflecting concerns about fallout for world markets and the domestic economy -- said it will keep short-term interest rates around zero for now.

The decision to end a unique five-year policy of flooding the banking system with excess cash is a first step towards higher interest rates in a country where borrowing has been virtually free for years.

...political pressure from Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi on down to hold fire to avoid hurting a hard-won economic recovery may have strengthened the central bank's resolve.

"Remember, the Bank of Japan has to establish its credibility as an independent player in the financial markets and this was an opportunity they could not resist," said Arjuna Mahendran, chief economist at Credit Suisse Private Bank in Singapore.

^---(from url)---^

I'd sound a note of discord on that last tune. How much credibility can the BOJ truly have as an "independent player" when it dependently holds nearly a trillion dollars of another nation's (USA) bonds while having very little independent gold metal of its own?

Far from independent, the BOJ is still our (U.S.) lackey until such time as it realigns its reserve policy structure.

But all in good time...


GoldiloxBOJ#1422553/9/06; 14:59:44

"said it will keep short-term interest rates around zero for now."

ANd in what way does this "end" their giveaways? Jawboning, but keeping the carry-trade alive for their banking masters.

Golden LionheartIs that an embryonic triangle I see forming?#1422563/9/06; 15:05:56

As someone who has kept his own gold charts since 1960 I notice a lower high and a higher low happening. If a triangle is forming we could see the gold price oscillate in the $540 to $570 range for a month or two.

The last big triangle broke out northwards on cue at a great rate of knots but will this one do the same. I hope so. But only taxes and death are certainties!

TownCrierFed monetizes more Treasury debt#1422573/9/06; 15:09:24

With the Bank of Japan now on an inflation-acknowledgement footing, half a world away the US Federal Reserve is amping up the presses.

In open market operations today, depite a tame fed funds market (trading in line with the FOMC 4.5% policy directive) the Fed's trading desk pumped $22.75 billion of fresh temporary cash into the nation's money supply with a near-even mixture of overnight repos and 14-day repurchase agreements.

More significantly, the Fed also bought outright $1,100 billion in Treasury debt, targeting maturities on the close end of the yield curve (from Oct 2009 to Aug 2010), thus 'permantly' increasing the base money supply of the nation by that amount of fresh digits created through this transaction.

The more you understand the ethereal nature of transactional money, the more you will insist upon the tangible wealth of gold for your savings.


silverton3silverton3#1422583/9/06; 15:13:35

This is a response to how to use ETF's.

I like ETF's because,

I can use margin.
I can buy and sell with very small commissions.
I can get in and out within minutes.
There is no danger of physical theft.

TownCriersilverton3, ETFs#1422593/9/06; 15:45:34

So, basically, you are saying

You like ETF's because,

Others can use margin against you.
You enjoy paying commissions. (Contrasted with physical gold having only a simple buy/sell spread.)
Easy come, easy go.
You have a questionably position of NON-ownership, plus, your digital position is still at risk of identity theft, from parties both public and private, attacking your funds from any digital point on the globe.

Sleep well, dear friend.

Lothar of the Hill People$$$ 543.0 $$$#1422603/9/06; 15:50:37

Blood rises hot with the call to contest. Memory and gratitude for the received golden and silver prizes of the past come to mind. Lothar emerges from lurking at the foot of the great oaken table of yore.

Lothar gives many gifts to the soothsayers of the Hill People to seek revelation of the ancient Great Albino Bat living eternally in the dark recesses of the Hill People's secret cavern home.

Their council is a surprisingly low figure and, regarding the Ides of March, is much as that of Sirs Goldilox and 2023. For they see that the significant turning point psychologically for gold was Ides of March a decade past.

There is no fear of this Ides of March for the wax and wane of history is of no consequence to one with a golden store.

To contest and good luck to all.

I am Lothar of the Hill People

Fare ye well.

Flatliner@silverton3, ETFs#1422613/9/06; 16:25:10

Silverton3, Don't let TownCrier discourage you. I already know that this forum might be a little skewed toward physical ownership (which I am), but that is not the point here. I'm looking to better understand the thinking of those that do use ETFs and those that do not. I encourage those that are willing to help me understand the benefits to speak up if they do not feel (too) intimidated.

I'm still hoping that someone has researched the topic enough to point out structural weaknesses with the ETF process. Not just the typical paranoid issues like you have to trust the management that's running the ETF. That's just a little too obvious.

Hope the best for all.

SundeckCondi's "central banker" metaphor#1422623/9/06; 16:40:25

Just a brief observation...

It is curious to me that Condi should have invoked, at the present time, the "Central Banker" metaphor in relation to Iran in relation to the "T"-word.

While "gold" is probably the most used metaphor in the world...signifying surity, value, quality, permanence, prestige, etc..."central bankers" are seldom mentioned in any metaphorical context...

...and I am not sure that Condi, if she reflected on the comment for a little while, may not suspect that she has goofed just a little in its use...a bit like Bush's "crusade" metaphor several years ago...hastily withdrawn when the history authorities had a little word in his ear.

What is going through the Collective Administration Mind at the moment that has lead Condi to come out with the CB metaphor? Are both Iran and the Fed uppermost in current US policy dilemmas perchance? Is the notion of "Iran spewing fourth terror", say, a Freudian slip in Condi's mind... paralleling the notion of the "Fed spewing fourth dollars"...when the impression she may have been trying to create was one of a "repository of terror" to which everyone goes shopping?? Anyway, I doubt that linking "the dollar" to "terror" is a terribly wise metaphor in the current clime...

Condi's careless comments, the UAE pulling out of it's ports deal (Unocal revisited) to save Bush's hide on The Hill and Rumsfeld's erratic ravings about Iraq point to an Administration all-at-sea in its international policy. And with homeland support filtering away like dry sand through the fingers.....

I mean, how lame can a duck get?


TownCrierFlatliner, ETFs#1422633/9/06; 16:54:20

If you can't find any worth in the summary insights from my pithy straight-to-the-point counterpoints, then I suggest you read the near-100-page prospectus for insights which come straight from the horse's mouth. I did. Did silverton3?


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1422643/9/06; 16:56:32">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

THURSDAY Market Excerpts

March 9 (from Reuters) -- COMEX April gold futures finished $2.70 higher at $547 after trading between $540.70 and $551.30.

Purchases by the trade at cheaper prices and speculative short covering combined to boost gold, dealers said, after Wednesday's fall to a three-week low below $540, but the market pared its gains by the close.

Some investors also turned to gold amid continued unease about tensions over Iran and following news of a higher U.S. trade deficit and as crude oil prices bounced above $60 a barrel, market sources said.

"Pockets of long liquidation have since returned but the speed of gold's rally suggests not only is this week's correction a little overdone but that investors are still extremely uncertain about the future," said James Moore, an analyst with TheBullionDesk. Moore said high oil costs and geopolitical tension will continue to attract investors toward classic safe haven assets, like gold, even as there were concerns about potentially rising interest rates worldwide maybe weighing on the market.

Iran vowed on Thursday not to compromise in its nuclear dispute with the West, while U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Iran was probably the No. 1 challenge for Washington.

U.S. data on Thursday showed the U.S. January trade deficit widened to a record $68.51 billionfrom $65.07 billion in December and above economists' forecasts for $66.50 billion.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

Boilermaker******$558.30******#1422653/9/06; 17:02:04

The Ides of March in 2006. It's not likely to be a memorable day for goldbugs but the month of March will be seen in retrospect as a pivotal month for our economic future. To wit:
-M3 goes to heaven
-Iran starts selling oil for Euros
-US Congress OKs bigger deficit limit.
-TOCOM opaques their member positions
-Ben "money from heaven" Bernanke chairs his first FROMC Meeting
-The vanguard of worried common stock investors is doubled from 1% to 2%
-Like LBJ on 3/31/1968, GWB will announce "I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President" and demonstrate his willingness to abide by the 22nd ammendment.

FlatlinerSummary insights#1422663/9/06; 17:50:59

TownCrier, I do find worth in your counterpoints. I am grateful for them everyday! You have my many humble thanks and I feel most honored that I'm even allowed to post my naïve questions at this most studied round table.

I don't know if I told you, but thank you for pointing me to the prospectus information a few weeks ago. I did read through it (most of it – its loooonnnngggg and dry). You are a wealth of information and a great asset here.

Now, I'm not sure how to ask this without sounding like Bambi, but what may be old-hat to you may be on the raw cutting edge for a newbie. Would you be willing to help facilitate a discussion with regards to why people find ETFs usable and/or functional? Or better yet, be willing to entertain the fact that different people have drawn different conclusions with regards to this subject? In different discussions that I've had with people, many of them have accepted ETFs without a second thought. That complete unquestioned acceptance just seems a little weird to me.

At the same time, I know that CPM is a physical shop – which I support. On the flip side, I can totally see that if the ETF concept turns out to be as honorable as a knight giving his king his word, then it could have a serious affect on the physical gold environment. At the same time, if there is no honor, that, too, will have an affect. But the reality is that ETFs are sucking up a lot of money and I'm trying to get a better understanding why.

At the moment, I'm personally very curious and would still enjoy reading other personal experiences if others here are willing to share.

Flatliner@sundeck below#1422673/9/06; 18:02:03

Sundeck, Did you mean to say "UAE pulling out of it's ports deal" or something like "UAE setting up a US corporation that will handle all operations with regards to the functioning of the ports"? It seems to me that the media is spinning the situation as to make it look like the UAE is giving up control when actually the deal should still go through but under a different company name. One that might look very – patriotic.

Call me crazy or paranoid (or maybe even Goldilox [No harm intended. Thanks Goldilox for all the postings and the non-conventional thinking.]), but hang on to your gold. You may find it a life saver in the years to come.

TownCrierFlatliner, finding rationales#1422683/9/06; 18:21:17

"Would you be willing to help facilitate a discussion with regards to why people find ETFs usable and/or functional? ...many of them have accepted ETFs without a second thought. That complete unquestioned acceptance just seems a little weird to me."

Ditto for the craps tables and roulette wheels in any given gambling palour. Same goes for state-sponsored powerball lotteries.

Do we truly gain anything in the process of pinning down WHY people find these schemes "usable and/or functional... accepting them without second thought"?

If you think it's a worthwhile endevor, I'm certainly hip to your proposed investigation into human psychology.


Flatliner@ worthwhile endeavor#1422693/9/06; 18:44:08

It's hard to say if it's worthwhile or not. But, I've come to learn that many things in life are ruled by emotion rather then logic. Being someone that leans towards logic for support, I'm left having to ask others for the emotional understanding that I quite often, just do not get.

I'm left hoping that one day I will understand what others see in ETFs. Maybe there is value, but the logic in me is having a hard time finding it. I will leave the invitation open to anyone that may have insights for me. Thanks.

osa104c$$$$$$$$$ 551.10 $$$$$$$$#1422703/9/06; 18:57:24

"Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way?"

Other than one day closer to the disclosure to the masses of the horrors and futility of the fiat money exchange??/….no


The last soul that didn't heed the warning lost his life….YES…I (WE) would be wise to continue trudging the road to happy destinies….silver sweets and golden sunsets at the end of all rainbows………..13th..15th…17th………………….who's calendar reflects the truth???

I've lost count, seems there may have been three questions???

Goldiloxtitle or epithet#1422713/9/06; 19:30:23

@ Flatliner,

One man's title is another man's epithet. Since most of my heroes have been fully vilified by TPTB, some unto death, I will take that as a compliment that I am percieved as wary of "acceptance" by the status quo.

The end result of my studies have led me here.

Ten Bears A proposal by Henry C K Liu 4 parts#1422723/9/06; 19:46:14


>After the collapse in 1971 of the Bretton Woods regime of a gold-backed dollar, fixed exchange rates and restricted cross-border flow of funds, the resultant international financial architecture of fiat currencies based on the US dollar as the head of the snake of fiat currencies has made impossible such distinction between intrinsic variation of commodities and variation in the medium of exchange. This has created a disconnection between price and value in international trade, in favor of the dollar economy at the expense of all non-dollar economies.

>Up to 70% of China's export trade is financed by foreign capital and traded by foreign traders. China's outstanding foreign debt stood at US$267.46 billion at the end of September 2005, up 8.07% or $19.97 billion from the end of 2004.

>People's Bank of China (PBoC), China's central bank, presents a misleading picture about the financial benefits China receives from foreign trade. The profit mostly goes to foreign capital, while the PBoC's dollar reserves have come from the sale of domestic sovereign debt to remove trade-surplus dollars from the Chinese economy in a process known as sterilization in monetary economics.

>There is no economic logic in the obscene disparity between executive pay and worker wages, which has increased by more than tenfold in past decades in the US, particularly when increased earnings are often achieved by shrinking the company through massive layoffs
>In a manner of speaking, economic rent is a form of excess profit. US executives enjoy the world's highest economic rent for management.

>If the value of labor expressed as wages is kept low, growth can only come as financial bubbles. For this reason, a global cartel for labor is the solution to the current debt bubble in the global economy.

>Greenspan, then chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board, testified before Congress that if low-wage workers overseas cannot move to fill jobs in the developed economies because of immigration constraints, the jobs will have to migrate to the workers in the developing economies to avoid inflation. The new Iron Law of Wages now operates in the globalized economy on cross-border wage arbitrage to produce low prices for consumer products in the high-wage economies that fewer and fewer consumers can afford because of rising job loss in high-wage economies.

>Countries such as China and India are trading in their progressive socialist programs for Dickensian industrial hell while advanced economies such as the United States have become voluntary victims of home-grown economic imperialism that comes with dollar hegemony.
>Today, job protection by governments should not be mistaken as trade protectionism. As long as a world order of nation-states exists, economic nationalism must be the basis of international trade. Trade must enhance national wealth for all participating nations, not merely to enrich global transnational capital at the expense of universal economic democracy.
>Free markets are an oxymoron. Government is fundamentally involved in markets through the very creation and enforcement of property rights, an artificial socio-political concept without which markets cannot exist.

>In 1991, GDP replaced GNP as a standard statistical measure for growth - a quiet change that had very large implications, as the 1990s were the decade of rapid globalization. This accounting shift has turned many struggling, exploited economies into statistical boom towns, while seducing local leaders to embrace a global economy. The rich nations at the core are walking off with the periphery's resources and profiting obscenely from local slave wages while calling it a statistical gain for the periphery, with the help of the local elite - a new compradore class whose members are celebrated by the neo-liberal press as national heroes.

ToolieDubai threat to hit back#1422733/9/06; 20:11:59

Snip: Dubai is threatening retaliation against American strategic and commercial interests if Washington blocks its $6.8 billion takeover of operations at several U.S. ports.
A source close to the deal said members of Dubai's royal family are furious at the hostility both Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill have shown toward the deal.
"They're saying, ‘All we've done for you guys, all our purchases, we'll stop it, we'll just yank it,’" the source said.
Retaliation from the emirate could come against lucrative deals with aircraft maker Boeing and by curtailing the docking of hundreds of American ships, including U.S. Navy ships, each year at its port in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the source added.
The Emirates Group airline will decide later this year whether it will buy Boeing's new 787 Dreamliner or its competitor, Airbus A350. The airline last fall placed an order worth $9.7 billion for 42 Boeing 777 aircraft, making Dubai Boeing's largest 777 customer. (end snip)

Oh no! They aren't going to send their petrodollars back to the US, Pffffff! What are they gonna do with them?

Meanwhile, back here in the Great Lake State: A state representative introduced a bill that would permit tolls being charged on state and interstate highways – for the purposes of funding ‘maintenance’, or so they say. Of course once the road can generate an income it can be sold and operated for a profit. That is the aim, I suspect – sell off state and national assets so that we can continue to rack-up those monstrous trade defects. Whatever vehicles you choose for protecting your wealth, I'd suggest that your ownership be recognized by at least 9/10 of the law, and then securely tucked away.

SundeckUAE deal#1422743/9/06; 20:42:06

Yes, Sir Flatliner #142267, perhaps a different choice of words would have been better, but it is still not clear whether UAE is going to relinquish the deal (in exchange for some compensatory arrangements) or whether ownership is going to be transferred to a "US entity"...perhaps one wholey owned by the UAE, or one in which the UAE has major holdings...

Whatever the outcome, the Bush Administration is sending very mixed messages...not just abroad, but to its own the moment it appears to be running around like a headless chook...utterly lost the plot...if it ever had one...


Chris PowellJapan suspends Morgan for market manipulation ... again#1422753/9/06; 22:31:04

Just imagine all Morgan's ripoffs that DON'T get caught. ...

* * *

FSA punishes J.P. Morgan for stock market manipulation

From Kyodo News Service
Thursday, March 9, 2006

TOKYO -- The Financial Services Agency ordered the Japan unit of J.P. Morgan Securities Asia Pte. Ltd. on Thursday to suspend part of its operations for five to 15 business days for manipulating the value of a Tokyo Stock Exchange futures index with a massive sum of "cross trades" on Nov. 4, 2004.

The order, which will go into force on Friday, was issued to discipline J.P. Morgan Securities Asia Pte. Ltd., Tokyo Branch, for the trades which contravened Article 42 of the Securities and Exchange Law, the governmental regulator said.

A J.P. Morgan trader placed a total of 15 selling and buying orders for the futures index at the same values, making the opposite orders match and guiding the index's values artificially at levels that do not mirror the market's actual conditions, the FSA said.

The trader, who put the series of orders in over a period of about 70 minutes from 1:57 p.m., was found not to have had any intention to transfer ownership rights among market participants when implementing the fraudulent deals, it said.

In addition, the Japanese arm of J.P. Morgan misled an institutional investor in November 2004 by failing to provide the investor with value appraisal reports on real estate used as underlying assets for asset-backed securities for which it was acting as a sales intermediary, the regulator said.

Besides this, the branch, brushing aside the doubts expressed by the investor on the reality of the assessments, handed over to the investor a separate set of appraisal reports at which the value of the real estate had not been written down to reflect real market conditions, it said.

The FSA imposed the disciplinary order in light of a recommendation by the Securities and Exchange Surveillance Commission to impose punitive measures on the brokerage.

The regulatory authorities slapped the company with a similar penalty in 2003 for market manipulation.

GoldiloxControl of funds#1422763/9/06; 22:36:42

Before anybody gets their panties in a wad about trade sanctions and withholding business, it clarifies the bigger picture to remember that deals of that size are "brokered" by international bankers.

Anyone who acts against their mandates, gets the same treatment that Iran got for dethroning the butcher-puppet Shah in 1979; their accounts get frozen (read: confiscated) as "terrorist states."

Even Roosevelt succumbed to their desire to "loan" confiscated US gold to rebuilding of Hitler's Germany in preparation for the most destructive war of modern time.

From an INTEL standpoint, I suspect Condi Rice's statement about Iran as the "central banker of terror" is code for "the banks have already approved military action." If we're gonna have more war, it's because SIMON SAYS we're gonna have more war.

The question is: "What guarantees have they extracted from the participants to ensure repayment for war expenditures?"

Watch the "Money Masters" again and be reminded that NO major conflict has taken place in the last few centuries without bankster financing.

@ Flatliner - Is that crazy enough for you? The scary part is it fits the "Money Masters" scenario to a tee.

mikal"Numbers" beg to be challenged#1422773/9/06; 22:40:18

The Numbers Behind the Lies - Bill Fleckenstein - Contrarian Chronicles - March 9, 2006 - "Beneath the surface are undesirable, sobering consequences for us all."
Riveting and revealing. Includes references and link to John Williams recent interview posted here.

mikalRe: Rice's "central banker" comment#1422783/9/06; 23:03:55

Does seem to have conveyed subtle meaning. It may mean
she is privy to and subconsciously impressed by coming central bank revaluation of gold, especially given that such action sufficiently places responsibility for economic trouble such as derivatives in a recognizable, largely invulnerable entity. This handy scapegoat(CB'ers) and it's "reforms" would serve also to deflect attention and retribution from actual perpetrators and basic fiat, capitalist monetary structures and markets could operate
with little change.
Or else there is war or both happen together, war and global gold MTM- though there are plenty of reasons to believe this WW3 will not happen this year, or any time soon despite the hype and misinformation. Such speculation helps justify Homeland Security, empower the military/industrial establishmnet, defense complex and contractors, provide
support to war hawk politicians around the world and firms suc as Halliburtan and many other vulture enterprises.



$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

At the request of SIR MK, USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the APRIL, 2006 Comex contract (GCJ06) on Wednesday, March 15, 2006, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, March 12, 2006, AND ALL ENTRIES must answer SIR MK's QUESTIONS !!

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive an uncirculated Mexician 10 Peso GOLDPIECE which contains Actual Gold Content of 0.2411 fine ozs of GOLD.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce pure Silver U.S. Eagle.

The QUESTIONS -- (actually two Questions) <;-) --
(Put on your THINKING HATS !)

The questions are, -- "Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2006 Gold Contract (GCJ06) on the date of Wednesday, March 15, 2006.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $567.8)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $567.8 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on: Sunday, March 12, 2006.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)

--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph (more or less) discussing;
LET the CONTEST continue !

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beowulf +POG ides of March#1422823/10/06; 07:52:17

I too see March as a turning point in the global economy as many others have pointed out. Psychologically, for me, is the security of physical possession of gold durring a climatic adjustment that probably will pass ignored by the masses at large. If another war is indeed in the offing then I see a spike occurring on that day, but probably not prior. I therefore place my guess at:



beowulf +POG change#1422833/10/06; 07:54:45

$$$$ $549.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (3/4/06; 22:13:41MT - msg#: 142117)

My error. Sorry I will have to change to $548.50

FlatlinerWhat is an investor to do?#1422843/10/06; 09:25:31

It was brought up here in different words. When inflation outpaces interest rates those holding bonds lose real value. Below, I've quoted a couple paragraphs from The Oil Factor (Off page 139-40) that sums up the concept.

"Now let's backtrack to the second half of the 1970's, in particular to 1979, when gold began rising in a big way. Inflation, as we noted, had reached 10 percent. But something else had occurred that was even more significant for gold than the actual level of inflation. In 1979 real interest rates turned negative. That means, as we've discussed before, that inflation was higher than interest rates, in this case higher than both long-term rates (bonds) and short-term rates such as T-bills. Negative real rates were the true trigger for gold's dramatic gains in 1979.

Remember, when real rates are negative, it means that you can borrow money, buy any asset that keeps up with inflation, and turn around and sell it for a real profit. Suppose, for instance, that inflation is 20 percent and interest rates are 10 percent. You buy a house for $100,000. A year later you sell it, and since its value has gone up in tandem with inflation, you get $120,000. All you have to pay the bank that holds the mortgage, though, is $110,000. You pocket a profit of $10,000. If that isn't coining money, we don't know what is.

Of course, you don't want to have to buy and sell a house every year, and there would be other costs involved such as taxes and maintenance. The trick is to find some asset that is reasonably liquid and that is sure to keep up with inflation. In addition, you have to be confident that while you hold this asset, real rates will remain negative. We'll get to the second condition in a moment, but as far as the first condition goes, is there any asset more likely to hold its value in times of inflation than gold? It is, as you probably realize, a rhetorical question. Negative real rates, even more than inflation alone, make gold a can't-lose investment with an appeal that feeds on itself"

-Fl. For those that read the angry words of The Great Mogambo, you probably have already figured out that real inflation is much higher then government stated inflation and that loan rates make for cheap money. I'm not advocating risking taking advantage of the inversion, but knowing that there are trillions upon trillions of dollars managed by people that look for the slightest advantage I can't help but sense that there will be a huge flood into assets in the coming years when those managers wake up and find that they are underwater.

Oh, the authors of The Oil Factor also cover many different angles as to why the Fed will not be able to perform the same types of interest rate adjustments that they did during the last gold rush. Structurally, things are different now. There will be new tricks, but the fundamental problem will be the same. One would expect inflation rates to outpace interest rates for many years.

YGM$$$548.00$$$#1422853/10/06; 09:27:26

The Ides of March will only affect and hold dire consequences for two groups of people. The weather report for those in the foothills on the east side of the Rockies and those who are short the Gold market. Pesonally I like relaxing by the fireplace in snowstorms and fully enjoy seeing those who sell what they don't own get the crap beat out of them in the market...YGM
GoldiloxGold is Different This Time#1422863/10/06; 10:06:59


Last week we said if gold was adjusted for inflation today, its true price would be closer to $1700-$1900 per ounce. If this is correct, valuation and price adjusted gold charts would forecast gold at much higher prices than the industry forecast of $500-$850 for fall 2006. Like some in the gold analyzing business, the Tracks forecasts fall gold at $850 for 2006. Then we expect a following fast and hard retracement returning to $650 support. The reason gold non-believers will be selling at $850 is the January 1980 high was gold's modern high price. Gold analysts will say that is the top and the gold rally is over. In our view, that number represents only 29% of our new high forecast in gold prices.

At this juncture, the Chicken Littles will be running in fear and selling excellent gold stocks and investments while missing out on the best part of this legendary gold moon shot. The selling of gold and its stocks will be strongly encouraged by the New York mainstream stock cheerleaders straining for the old pre-2000 stock market excitement. Do not believe these people but instead prepare for an even bigger gold rally as the second leg and very powerful gold rallies move aggressively toward $1250 per ounce.

Fully 75-80% of the entire gold rally from bottom to top will occur during the last rally year. This will be the final and third leg of the gold run. We suggest that final straight up price bar on monthly charts could be either in the fall or late winter. The last one was in January of 1980 and the next one could very well be in January of 2010. We do not know and nobody else does either. However, what we can do is take a big investment slice out of the middle by using technical analysis and avoid trying to call tops and bottoms which is futile. Since 1992 I have called exactly one top to the dollar and work to find them nearly every day. Skip this idea as it is just foolish and unnecessary.

The real reason "This time it's different" is the unusually, radical market price extremes created by machinations and fiddling interference of the Federal Reserve and other bureaucrats and politicians. When markets are not permitted to return to the norm they do crazy things such as vicious snapback corrections that hit with unparalleled velocity. The artificial propping of the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P's must return to a corrective price. This is the law of investments and trading. The further the rubber band is stretched to new outer limits, they harder it snaps back. If it is not allowed to snapback, it will break and so will the markets.

The world is watching Japan and its proposed rate increases very carefully. However, in the opinion of the Tracks they are looking the wrong way. Observers should be monitoring new increases by the U.S. States Federal Reserve's Helicopter Ben. Benny's stated objective is to contain inflation at exactly 1%. First, he cannot possibly make that call and worse, we forecast he is going to overcorrect by at least 50 basis points. The house of cards will tumble down while gold streaks to the moon. Be careful out there and buy gold. – Trader Rog


From the other castle - Roger Weigand seems to be reading Sinclair's mail in his charting efforts. As long as the investor has the 11K+ SM to suck up capital, they will try to "leverage" the bubble. Any chink in the armor of that fairy tale spells panic buying in precious.

balzacCONTEST#1422873/10/06; 10:10:52

In my opinion, the Ides are not really consequential,
The 20th is the big day-will the U.S. allow Iran to open an oil bourse?
The threat to the Reserve Currency of the world is obvious.
The imminent question is - do the EU and Russia have enough
influence to delay any attack on Iran??
If not ,the price of gold will rise.

my guess:$$$$537.3$$$$

GoldiloxHUI Watch#1422883/10/06; 10:13:04

Up 5.91, or 2%, even while gold is struggling further.

One might suspect that the general market rise today is "floating all boats", or look a little deeper and wonder if the miners are leading the product.

It seems the SM is reveling in today's hedonic job growth numbers, while ignoring the growing disparities in the latest Forbes bubble-billionaire list.

Flatliner@ title or epithet#1422893/10/06; 10:35:22

Goldilox, You have my condolences.

There are those that teach that ‘ignorance is bliss’. The concept where someone tunes out the world so as to create a state of harmony, free of worldly discord, isolated from the world from which they can live a blissful ‘garden of Eden’ existence.

There have been times when I have found this concept very appealing. It's tempting to turn off the radio and TV so as to not have to deal with all the disturbing concepts pushed in the mainstream media.

Unfortunately, the fundamental concept of ‘ignorance is bliss’ if flawed. A logical interpretation of ignorance (see explains it to mean "The condition of being uneducated, unaware, or uninformed." Well, I really don't know anyone that is uneducated, unaware or uninformed about SOMETHING. If one looks for bliss through ignorance, they must make a conscious effort to unlearn, hide or intentionally look away. These are actions that I find hard to do.

I would expect that heroes to you are people that do not believe ‘ignorance is bliss’ to the point of taking the opposite stand. One who is ignorant is truly taken advantage of.

Unfortunately, heroes, those who stand above the rest in influence and understanding, are targets. It is unfortunate and disgraceful, in my eyes, that they are not allowed to speak clearly (unhindered) their point of view.

One would dream that an honest man(woman) could speak without fearing for their life. It seems though, that this is really not the case. To me, unfortunately, it depends deeply on what you choose to speak about.

In any case, you can find me in the audience. I'm the one next to you that says gold is wealth. Physical Gold ownership will build the alternative currency structure – if it hits critical mass. Keep teaching those that you know about physical gold and property rights. Every individual that participates brings the concept one step closer to reality.

Things may never change on the mass scale, but on a personal level, one can find a less shackled environment in which to live.

Please note that you all have my support with your alternative views and well crafted editorials. Your efforts are greatly appreciated. Your trials and tribulations are not taken lightly.

GoldiloxPosts#1422903/10/06; 10:47:30

@ Flatliner,

Thanks for the kind words, but be aware, I am not the "source" of my quotes, just a messenger.

My biases certainly come through, but I try to find writers that truly "analyze" their surroundings, especially in the big picture scenarios.

Too often, it seems, financial pundits lose perspective of the forest for viewing the immediate trees, something that only aids and abets the userers and their "bought and paid for" media.

I, too, find abandoning the TeeVee a welcome thought, only to return forthwith to hear the noise and try again to filter through the BS.

When it gets too overwhelming, the classic movie channels are only a click away!

silverton3ETFs#1422913/10/06; 12:11:51

Several of my subscribers, upon reading this view I have on ETFs contacted their ETFs with some questions.

First, one subscriber had money in a gold /silver ETF. Upon reading my contention that they will never see any actual metal, but only be redeemed in dollars, the subscriber called his ETF and asked if he wanted some metal, could he get that instead of the paper dollars.

Answer? NO.

Now, imagine that in a real USD crisis, the ETF ‘gold’ or silver you thought you had, is really an amount of US dollars, that are given back to you, but that currency is crashing.

That means that all you would get out are US dollars, amidst a collapsing USD market. A lot of good such an ETF would do you.


The problem with this arguement is that most people have some debt. Take me, for example. If I could simply get rid of my current mortgages, I would be happy. So if gold triples, and all I can get are dollars, that works, because my loans are denominated in dollars, and I would have eliminated the debt.

Lance$$$$ $549.0 $$$$ #1422923/10/06; 12:21:40

My answers to the questions:
1) Do you see the Ides of March 2006 as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? - No.
2) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH? - No. The real concern I have is that the POG seems to be directly proportional to POO. Due to the threatened sanctions that may be imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council for Iran's continuing development of nuclear material for either nuclear power or potentially nuclear arms, Iran may either reduce oil output or implement other controls that could easily raise the price of a barrel of oil. I believe that the price of gold would then rise in tandem, as it has done in the past.

Usul$$$$ $555.55 $$$$#1422933/10/06; 13:04:58

Are the Ides of March 2006 a significant turning point
psychologically for gold?
Not necessarily, because public appreciation of gold is
a long-term process, brought on by the gradual realisation
of the consequences of unrestrained creation of money
and debt.
The US Congress must raise the debt limit by the March
recess, which occurs not long after the Ides of March,
or there will be defaults that would trigger a crisis.
The U.S. Treasury Undersecretary said on March 6th,
that the government had used "the last of its liquidity
tools" to stay under the debt ceiling.
Some time ago, GATA estimated that only 1054 tonnes of US
gold reserves remained unencumbered. Coincidentally,
this amount would last just long enough to bridge the gap
to the Ides of March. Also coincidentally, there have
recently been significant gold price declines. But if
the debt ceiling is raised, as Ron Paul once said, it
merely sends a signal that government is not serious
about reining in spending.

Left-field events, such as the development of bird flu
into human transmissible form, or conflict in Iran,
could happen at any time, but it would be more prudent to
beware the future.

"When we have gold we are in fear, when we have none we are in danger"
- John Ray (1627-1705), A Compleat Collection of English Proverbs, 1670

TownCriersilverton3 142291, good post#1422943/10/06; 13:58:54

However, I would urge you to consider the very real possibility that during such time as a USD crisis, the market in ETF shares could be collapsing right along with the value of the dollar.

That is to say, durance a general disturbance it is possible for the physical price of gold to be agressively climbing while at the same time the price of shares for the ETF could be stagnant or collapsing due to the nature of the financial linkages involved between the metal ownership on one end and the ETF shareholder market on the other end.

Buyer beware. The ETFs may be fantastic conceptual tools for meeting the objectives of daytraders, but ETFs don't meet the needs of individuals who have become net savers and are looking for a viable means to CONSOLIDATE their positive net worth for a lifetime of security.


BoilermakerFlatliner re Gold ETF#1422953/10/06; 14:22:51

I can understand the convenience and benefits of investing in gold through an ETF. It follows the conventional form of investing, ie., stocks, bonds, mutual funds etc., which Americans have become comfortable with over many decades. Electronically traded paper instruments in the hands of brokers and bankers are generally deemed safe by 99.9% of Americans.

The denizens of this site have a clearly different view of the world. Nearly all of us view the current economic condition and trend as unsustainable. Many of us believe there will be a non-linear transformation from times of plenty to times of hardship. We are still in a linear flightpath, going down slowly but not knowing how close to the ground we are because our altimeter has been rigged. We've had hard landings before but this one looks like it might be a crash.

To take the analogy further many goldbugs have bailed out of this descending overburdened craft and are floating to earth on golden parachutes. When we land we will have gold coins in hand to trade for things we need. Air Force pilots have survival kits that contain gold coins, not ETF shares. There is a lesson there. (see link above)

As long as we're in controlled descent the ETF will work. Chances are it will not survive a crash.

TownCriermsg#: 142294#1422963/10/06; 14:22:53

To put that all another way, in many parts of the world we know that we have to prepare ourselves by arranging for shelter against various seasons of inclement weather.

As the stormclouds loom on the horizon, where will anyone in the marketplace for shelter find any value in mere DEEDs to houses that they aren't allowed to occupy?

I hope the analogy with ETF shares vs. metal is clear enough.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#14229703/10/06; 14:56:56">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

FRIDAY Market Excerpts

March 10 (from DowJones) -- Comex gold was dealt a blow Friday when favorable U.S. economic data helped to prop the dollar higher, leading the yellow metal to test its lowest level in more than a month at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Most-active April gold touched a low of $534.50, marking its lowest level since Jan. 6. The contract later settled at $541.30, down $5.70 on the day.

Analysts at MKS Finance said U.S. nonfarm payrolls appeared to be better then expected, which put further downside strain on the yellow metal.

"Gold hesitated around $538 before stops were hit in the market followed by long liquidation which brought the metal to its low," the analysts said.

But the analysts said that even though the momentum remains negative, the metal is getting into an oversold territory, "so we believe that even if the break below the $535 level might trigger more long liquidation, for the moment we see this level as good support," the analysts said.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

Ten BearsAmerican classics Charley Reese, H. L. Mencken, Ambrose Bierce and Mark Twain#1422983/10/06; 15:26:53

Reese "Both Hugo and Charles Dickens can give you a very vivid picture of what capitalism without a safety net was really like. That is appropriate, because there are some in our own country who seem to wish to remove the safety net and revert to the law of the jungle."
H.L. Mencken " I believe that it is better to tell the truth than to lie. I believe that it is better to be free than to be a slave. And I believe that it is better to know than be ignorant".
Bierce "debt: an ingenious substitute for the chain and whip of the slave- driver."
Twain "It isn't the sum you get, it's how much you can buy with it, that's the important thing"
Twain "Education consists mainly of what we have unlearned".

silverton3RE:Towncrier#1422993/10/06; 15:32:17

Yes, I agree. In a very serious crisis, actual metal, stored in a safe place, not a bank is best. Can't beat it.

I just hope we don't get that bad....

Ten BearsReese 3/10/2006#1423003/10/06; 15:35:43
GonlyoldGold in Classic Cars#1423013/10/06; 16:07:35

RE: What'a an Investor To Do?

If any one was watching the Barrett-Jackson Classic Auto Auctions earlier this year, it seems like investors have found another egg basket. The prices for a great many of those cars were getting to the point of being so ridiculous that a good many of the apparently not-so-affluent bidders/watchers were beginning to criticize the auction. I read the high prices as another move of the affluent to protect themselves from an economical downturn. Us not-so-affluent investors may have to remain satisfied with just buying a few gold trinkets.

Black BladeSpeaking of Gold Cars#1423023/10/06; 16:19:34

You may find the car listed at the link interesting. I'm putting it on my Christmas list in case anyone is interested. ;-)

- Black Blade

Gandalf the White<;-)#1423033/10/06; 16:38:52

Thanks for the NICKEL, Sir Usul !
Well, the active markets have finished trading for this week, and the POG CONTEST "DEADLINE" is Midnight on SUNDAY,
Denver time ------ sooooo, not much a reason to not be posting your entries, AS SOON AS you have thought about the ANSWERS to the two Questions !



The "Ides of March" POG CONTEST

Following are listed the POG CONTEST entries !
(Listed in order of DECREASING values)

$$$$ $750.0 $$$$ Beamer (3/3/06; 16:07:46MT - msg#: 142093)

**** $606.6 **** mdgc (3/9/06; 09:02:14MT - msg#: 142246)

$$$$ $601.0 $$$$ Armageddon (3/7/06; 18:25:32MT - msg#: 142207)

$$$$ $600.0 $$$$ el dorado (3/6/06; 16:58:32MT - msg#: 142174)

$$$$ $587.0 $$$$ Sundeck (3/6/06; 21:09:59MT - msg#: 142183)

$$$$ $585.8 $$$$ Waverider (3/4/06; 21:01:58MT - msg#: 142114)

$$$$ $583.4 $$$$ Flatliner (3/3/06; 10:39:39MT - msg#: 142088)

$$$$ $580.1 $$$$ Slowman (3/5/06; 15:33:02MT - msg#: 142138)

$$$$ $577.1 $$$$ Chally (3/5/06; 22:37:54MT - msg#: 142151)

$$$$ $574.5 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (3/5/06; 13:28:05MT - msg#: 142135)
**** $574.4 **** arbyh (3/5/06; 11:43:24MT - msg#: 142133)

$$$$ $572.0 $$$$ Clink! (3/7/06; 06:40:36MT - msg#: 142190)
$$$$ $571.9 $$$$ glockmaster19 (3/7/06; 14:33:19MT - msg#: 142198)

$$$$ $570.0 $$$$ Liberty Head (3/5/06; 14:02:09MT - msg#: 142137)

$$$$ $568.8 $$$$ Beer Man (03/04/06; 12:17:16MT - msg#: 142102)

$$$$ $568.4 $$$$ Freedom (3/5/06; 11:12:11MT - msg#: 142131)

$$$$ $567.6 $$$$ The Knife (3/6/06; 17:14:28MT - msg#: 142175)

$$$$ $565.0 $$$$ Rocky (3/3/06; 14:30:02MT - msg#: 142091)

$$$$ $564.7 $$$$ Mthirsty1 (3/6/06; 17:55:50MT - msg#: 142179)

$$$ FRN564.0 $$$ Goldilox (3/7/06; 12:45:03MT - msg#: 142193)

$$$ FRN560.5 $$$ Smeagol (3/4/06; 18:22:20MT - msg#: 142108)

$$$$ $559.8 $$$$ 2023 (3/9/06; 02:13:17MT - msg#: 142241)

**** $558.3 **** Boilermaker (3/9/06; 17:02:04MT - msg#: 142265)

$$$$ $555.5 $$$$ Usul (3/10/06; 13:04:58MT - msg#: 142293)

$$$$ $551.1 $$$$ osa104c (3/9/06; 18:57:24MT - msg#: 142270)

$$$$ $549.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (3/4/06; 22:13:41MT - msg#: 142117)

$$$$ $549.0 $$$$ Lance (3/10/06; 12:21:40MT - msg#: 142292)

$$$$ $548.5 $$$$ beowulf + (3/10/06; 07:54:45MT - msg#: 142283)

$$$$ $548.0 $$$$ YGM (3/10/06; 09:27:26MT - msg#: 142285)

$$$$ $546.5 $$$$ Topaz (3/4/06; 20:26:10MT - msg#: 142112)

$$$$ $543.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (3/9/06; 15:50:37MT - msg#: 142260)

$$$$ $537.3 $$$$ balzac (3/10/06; 10:10:52MT - msg#: 142287)

$$$$ $530.0 $$$$ tejbear (3/8/06; 04:54:08MT - msg#: 142212)

Camel$$$$$ 540. $$$$#1423053/10/06; 17:45:59

It is quite likely that the Ides might be a turning point. After all , this is the begginnig of spring ,the start of new things after a long period of inaction during the winter. Now might be the time when various factions hatch their plots, for good or ill. Yon Cassius hath a lean and hungry look.
Nomad$$$ 533.00 $$$#1423063/10/06; 19:17:12

I don't think there is any way to predict the short term future of gold - but this next month or two definitely has the potential to push gold to much higher levels. In 1999, I was waiting for Y2K to push gold higher, when out of the blue the Washington Agreement was signed and gold rocketed higher. I think something like this is highly likely over the next year or two - something maybe completely out of left field that quickly pushes gold above the old $850 high water mark. If such an event were to occur, I think it would mark a world-wide turning point for the global financial system. For goldbugs, all it would signify is the BEGINNING of the new decade long gold / commodities rush.
Toolie$$$$ $535.7 $$$$#1423073/10/06; 20:59:19

Ides Shmides. We'll end the year higher but we have a buying opportunity coming up first. The psychological turning point will be when the trickle of US$ from CB reserves becomes a flood. I figure about four years.
guns'n'butter$$$539.9$$$#1423083/10/06; 22:13:53

first the supply-demand fundamentals of pre-mining season speculation is out the window. we are witnessing serious shortfalls in physical and a vain attempt and to keep the GOLD
(NYMEX) "market" in check. gone are the days of arbitrary manipulation. the "ides are marching". GOLD at $255 (my topping price) was a steal. today prcing in the five hunderds per oz. is a bargain.

Rook.,.#1423093/10/06; 22:21:42

If you are the chess playing big govts, and you are dealing with iran.........I am guessing that none of the security council govts want the crowd presently in charge of iran to possess nukes. If for no other reason than they really seem to want them.
Wouldnt china and russia be just as happy for isael to take the blame for doing the deed?
So that after the attack, the chinese can say, "hey, we didnt do nuthin, send us oil" the iranians.
Russians can go ..."tsk tsk........those naughty other guys, but, we also didnt do nuttin honey, and so keep buying our products. Military and whatever."

How likely is it that the big powers want to share power, or have to deal with a nuke power that is so.........well,
like they are.
This iran trouble will only hasten the coming new new deal of globalization. A high oil price, will hasten a recession, which will hurt non globalist companies the most. The mom and pops, niche players, I dont want to see a landscape of mostly mega corp stores. We should probably go around video taping our retail communities this spring. They may change forever soon.

tejbearBalzac, Camel, Nomad, Toolie & guns'n'butter:#1423103/10/06; 22:52:13


Thanks for leaving me at the bottom.

The Bear


"FIRST CALL !!" The CONTEST is still open to entry for only about 48 HOURS ! DO NOT forget to enter and have a chance to WIN the Mexican 10 Peso GOLDPIECE.

(BTW, I gathered three of these beauties today for a FAB price. Do you realize that these coins were going for only US$5. around the turn of the CENTURY ?)
THINK about THAT !

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

At the request of SIR MK, USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the APRIL, 2006 Comex contract (GCJ06) on Wednesday, March 15, 2006, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, March 12, 2006, AND ALL ENTRIES must answer SIR MK's QUESTIONS !!

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive an uncirculated Mexician 10 Peso GOLDPIECE which contains Actual Gold Content of 0.2411 fine ozs of GOLD.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce pure Silver U.S. Eagle.

The QUESTIONS -- (actually two Questions) <;-) --
(Put on your THINKING HATS !)

The questions are, -- "Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2006 Gold Contract (GCJ06) on the date of Wednesday, March 15, 2006.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $567.8)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $567.8 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on: Sunday, March 12, 2006.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)

--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph (more or less) discussing;

Gandalf the White<;-)#1423123/11/06; 00:12:28

(All you youngin's)---- THAT is the turn of the "20th CENTURY" !

contrarian$$$$599.0$$$$#1423143/11/06; 01:22:28

Given that 2006 Mar 14 23:35 Tue is the full moon, and that many factors such as Iran Oil Bourse, the exploding US budget beyond legal limit, bird flu, terrorism, a stock market hitting the four year cycle downdraft, fractal indications of fractures in the stock market, derivatives out of control, a possible new war with Iran, a housing market about to sink, interest rates continuing to go up, GM and Fannie Mae about to go belly up, I'll hazard $599.0, and I do think the Ides of March as a turning point for all these reasons, and therefore gold bugs should not beware the Ides of March as prices march upward.
Matthew$$$$578.9$$$$$#1423153/11/06; 02:50:36

Beware the Ides of March?
If the US chooses this date to start the next stage of the Middle East show - maybe.
With the US Caesar exposed as never before the real question is - who will play the role of Brutus?
This appears to be a long play.

Felix the Cat$$$$ $550.0 $$$$#1423163/11/06; 07:13:08

After we have educated by Gandy 's non-prize question "When will be best time to sell the gold?", I think the questions of this time are meaningless for me, as I have not been considering to sell the gold, why have to beware and think the POG at this moment? However perhaps I should start to think to get some more at this magic time.
DryWasher$$$$ $520.0 $$$$#1423173/11/06; 09:34:28

The questions are, -- "Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"

NO, I do not see the Ides of March as a turning point, and YES,we should beware of the Ides of March just as we should beware of EVERY day in the future.

I picked a low Gold Price guess because I see a lot of volatility, NOT because I doubt that Gold is going MUCH higher long term.
If I turn out to be right, and you are not already loaded up on physical, it could be a good time to add a bit to your stash.


24karat$$$$$$ 553.8 $$$$$$#1423183/11/06; 11:04:59

No, I don't see the Ides of March as any significant turning point. I think the stars are already aligned for a big upward movement in the POG. Us goldgugs already know the many warning signs in place, right now, that give March 2006 as a month in which all hell could break loose. The average investor, though, may not get up to speed until these warning signs hit him in the face. It is then that the POG will go ballistic. IMO, this will not happen before the end of March.

Beware the Ides of March?
I guess this question is asked because the Ides have come to represent a warning of dark and ominous times to come. Originally it was just another day in the Roman calender. No need to beware the Ides of March.

Thank you for the link to "The Lies Behind the Numbers". The folks at Enron are going to pay the price for their "creative accounting" shinanigans. But the government, it seems, is just as crafty with the numbers game. Maybe the people behind this will also be unmasked.

Caradocconfidence waning#1423193/11/06; 11:15:12

Whether it's fading confidence in government or in peper/ electronic money, even a quick check of Drudge's web site has clues for us....

On the government side, Associated Press (AP) says "Bush Shocked by Arrest of Former Advisor," referring to Claude Allen, Bush's domestic policy advisor since early 2005, who resigned in February after getting sideways with local discount stores a month earlier for ("allegedly") scamming them out of money by getting refunds on things he hadn't bought in the first place. Since this is only March and the guy collected his last paycheck in late February, I think AP is being kind in describing him as a "former" advisor.

Turning to the world of paper/ electronic money, Techweb News reports that Citibank's PIN scandal is the "Worst Hack Ever" and adds "[It] has hit national banks like Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Washington Mutual, as well as smaller banks, including ones in Oregon, Ohio, and Pennsylvania...."

As a bridge between these two recent Drudge reports (i.e., addressing shinanigans by government or government officials that have to do with money and financial security), the feds have followed private industry's lead in coming up with a novel way to avoid officially hitting their legally mandated debt ceiling. It's simple: steal the money from your employee's pension funds.

(Note: the following are not, except by coincidence, exact quotes since I'm just taking a quick break from the important task of planting chestnut trees and am pressed for time.)

Like every embezeller who gets caught: "We're going to put the money back." To make it seem even more palatable, "We'll include interest so that when we repay it, it'll be like it never happened." May sound comforting to those whose money is being taken, but money that's to be repaid with interest sure as blue blazes sounds like debt that ought to be included when calculating the federal debt.

Just for Gandalf and any other longterm civil servants... Hey, Gandy! Isn't it cute that they first sniped away a week or two ago at newbies hired during the last 25 years or so by the mechanism of simply failing to make the "matching deposit" in the Thrift Savings Plan for those under FERS (Federal Employees Retirement System)? Sounded sort of reasonable, just delaying a contribution at a time when things are tight, yes? Besides, anybody who signed up for FERS was already putting themselves in the position of trusting a government which had gone on record as far back as Nixon as stating that those new quarters are worth just as much as the silver ones. I figure the new folks are sort of getting what they already agreed to. Now, however, I'm sure you'll join me in my position that by actually removing funds from the Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS), a depository that has been an untouchable "locked box" since the days of reforms implemented by Andrew Jackson, the embezzelers have reached new heights of perfidity. After all, those are real green dollars (or as real as they get), subtracted from your paycheck at the rate of 7.1% and fully taxed so that the total deduction has been more like 9 or 10% during all those years that you've been toiling away.

Your thoughts, esteemed Wizard?


PS: If the US population in general begins to see things differently by the end of the month and is feeling rebellious by this summer, it may be that those griping the loudest will be the same baby boomers who gained experience at being rebellious during the late 1960s.

Shermag$$$ 538.2 $$$#1423203/11/06; 11:15:34

This does indeed seem to be a time of particularly acute danger, with the Iranian nuclear standoff comming to a head. Throw in the Nigerian oil disruptions, continued and growing dissent in Iraq, and more evidence of a rolling over of the US housing market, and you have the foundations of a surge in gold price. The ides of march indeed seem more perilous now than at any time in the recent past.
CaradocGood read#1423213/11/06; 11:32:35

The following is a snip representing less than half of today's updates s to the site and doesn't show hyperlinks to details of each. -Caradoc

***text follows***
NASDAQ to Eat London?

Not yet, because an initial move on the past of NASDAQ to acquire the London Stock Exchange has been turned down. NASDAQ reportedly put a $4.2 billion dollar offer on the table and the Brits said "No..." Still, as these things usually go on for a while, we might see the London Stock Exchange become an object of competitive bidding..

Iraq Parliament Plans

It now looks like parliament will be getting underway in Iraq on the 19th of this month, at least that's the latest plan. This as the factions in the country need to meet and chill out a bit according to the US envoy.
Meantime, Islamic web sites are carrying what they say is "al Qaeda's last warning before "2 operations that will bring America to its knees." Considering what the future predictive software has been saying about March 21-29 (with a week either way), this is indeed a worrisome development.

About Time

Homeland Security seems to have done something right: Using deportation as a weapon against spreading gang violence in the US. Of course, the flip side is that the hard working Border Patrol Agents still need heavy weapons and more manpower to effectively close the porous southern border, but deporting gang members makes a lot of sense. It's a good start.

GoldiloxAbout time?#1423223/11/06; 12:00:04

@ Caradoc,

I usually follow George's logic, but I fear on this issue, he's fallen into the trap of believing HS BS. They all want more arms and "powers" so they can eventually round up dissidents of every variety. Deport some. Imprison others. When Halliburton's $300M "refugee camps" are ready, it will begin in earnest - with the next "natural disaster" - the one where "Little David plays upon his HAARP, Haleluh!"

Watched Nick Cage's latest melodrama "Lord of War" last night. The illegal and slightly illegal arms trade is one of the biggest businesses on the planet. In the period after Soviet collapse, over $32B was pilfered and "redistributed" to localized civil wars from the Ukraine alone.

During that same period, one remembers, Ollie North was running arms to Nicaragua and Iran in exchange for cocaine and heroin to be "redistributed" on the US city streets, and received a Presidential pardon from George the Elder for withholding testimony about it from CONgress.

My estimation is that when (not if) gold trade receives stricter "anti-terror" restrictions, it will facilitate the black ops control of gold, as well. The sheeple will be using their mandated RFID-implanted credit cards, as cash will be rendered uncontrollable by the latest "disaster". Oh, and as a marketing bonus, we'll get flu vaccine in our RFID injections.

I have traded in my Saturday Puplava rehash for the Saturday morning Web bot report. Off to read the latest.

Gandalf the WhiteSir Caradoc's "POSTINGS" !#1423233/11/06; 12:09:27

YES !, I agree that it seems that TPTB inside the Beltway during this time period are making up the rules as NEEDED !
What do you think would happen if any small business owner used the same funding techniques being excused by UNCLE SAM ?
AND, it would not take as long to happen as the ENRON exec's trials to happen either.
Does the elected "officials", other than Congressman Ron Paul and a FEW others, plan to say anything ?
What happened to the "Checks and Balances" ?
YELLOW is the persons ONLY protection !

ToolieShadowing Reality#1423243/11/06; 12:25:12

An interview with Walter J. (John) Williams. – 8 pages of PDF...

Snip: Real
unemployment right now—figured the way that the average
person thinks of unemployment, meaning figured
the way it was estimated back during the Great
Depression—is running about 12%. Real CPI right now
is running at about 8%. And the real GDP probably is in
contraction. I venture that if you talked about those
numbers now with the average person, they would say
that they seem reasonable. If you tell them that people
are playing with the official numbers, they say, "Yep, I
figured that. There are no great surprises there." I guess
what I am saying is that my work shows that the economic
perceptions of non-professionals actually have
some real validity; there are in fact reasons for the disconnect
between official statistics and what the populous
is feeling
All in all, if you
were to peel back changes that were made in the CPI going back to the
Carter years, you'd see that the CPI would now be 3.5%-4% higher. The
difference that it makes is significant: if the same CPI were used today
as was used when Jimmy Carter was President, Social Security checks
would be 70% higher.
But you can see that if you back out that one-time charge, that on a
GAAP basis, accounting for Social Security and Medicare, in 2003 the
deficit was around $3.7 trillion; in 2004 it was $3.4 trillion; and in 2005
it was $3.5 trillion. We've had three years in a row here where the GAAP
deficit has been basically $3.5 trillion. So the deficit and the total obligations
of the federal government are increasing by roughly the amount of
GDP every three years. In fact, the fiscal 2005 statement shows that
total federal obligations at the end September were $51 trillion; over
four times the level of GDP. It is unprecedented for a major country to
have its actual obligations so far out of whack.
It would clearly have to be on a much different basis than we had
before. But I would not rule out gold coming back into the monetary
system down the road here. Again, I'm not looking for all this to come
to a head in the next six months. It could be 10 years before this blows
apart. But what I'm looking at, I know central bankers and people in
Washington are also looking at. No one wants to talk about it, but they
know about it. So it's interesting to see how they behave around gold. I
think, despite the jawboning that happens fairly regularly to try to
knock down gold prices, that you're going to find more and more gold
ending up in central bank vaults, because that's going to help them in
the crisis that follows. I might actually start squirreling a little bit of it
away. (end snip)

@ Caradoc -- I've planted a few American Chestnut trees too. It's said that before the blight hit them that a squirrel could travel from New England to the Gulf of Mexico and touch nothing but Chestnut trees.



The "Ides of March" POG CONTEST

Following are listed the POG CONTEST entries !
(Listed in order of DECREASING values)

$$$$ $750.0 $$$$ Beamer (3/3/06; 16:07:46MT - msg#: 142093)

**** $606.6 **** mdgc (3/9/06; 09:02:14MT - msg#: 142246)

$$$$ $601.0 $$$$ Armageddon (3/7/06; 18:25:32MT - msg#: 142207)

$$$$ $600.0 $$$$ el dorado (3/6/06; 16:58:32MT - msg#: 142174)

$$$$ $599.0 $$$$ contrarian (3/11/06; 01:22:28MT - msg#: 142314)

$$$$ $587.0 $$$$ Sundeck (3/6/06; 21:09:59MT - msg#: 142183)

$$$$ $585.8 $$$$ Waverider (3/4/06; 21:01:58MT - msg#: 142114)

$$$$ $583.4 $$$$ Flatliner (3/3/06; 10:39:39MT - msg#: 142088)

$$$$ $580.1 $$$$ Slowman (3/5/06; 15:33:02MT - msg#: 142138)

$$$$ $578.9 $$$$ Matthew (3/11/06; 02:50:36MT - msg#: 142315)

$$$$ $577.1 $$$$ Chally (3/5/06; 22:37:54MT - msg#: 142151)

$$$$ $574.5 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (3/5/06; 13:28:05MT - msg#: 142135)
**** $574.4 **** arbyh (3/5/06; 11:43:24MT - msg#: 142133)

$$$$ $572.0 $$$$ Clink! (3/7/06; 06:40:36MT - msg#: 142190)
$$$$ $571.9 $$$$ glockmaster19 (3/7/06; 14:33:19MT - msg#: 142198)

$$$$ $570.0 $$$$ Liberty Head (3/5/06; 14:02:09MT - msg#: 142137)

$$$$ $568.8 $$$$ Beer Man (03/04/06; 12:17:16MT - msg#: 142102)

$$$$ $568.4 $$$$ Freedom (3/5/06; 11:12:11MT - msg#: 142131)

$$$$ $567.6 $$$$ The Knife (3/6/06; 17:14:28MT - msg#: 142175)

$$$$ $565.0 $$$$ Rocky (3/3/06; 14:30:02MT - msg#: 142091)

$$$$ $564.7 $$$$ Mthirsty1 (3/6/06; 17:55:50MT - msg#: 142179)

$$$ FRN564.0 $$$ Goldilox (3/7/06; 12:45:03MT - msg#: 142193)

$$$ FRN560.5 $$$ Smeagol (3/4/06; 18:22:20MT - msg#: 142108)

$$$$ $559.8 $$$$ 2023 (3/9/06; 02:13:17MT - msg#: 142241)

**** $558.3 **** Boilermaker (3/9/06; 17:02:04MT - msg#: 142265)

$$$$ $555.5 $$$$ Usul (3/10/06; 13:04:58MT - msg#: 142293)

$$$$ $553.8 $$$$ 24karat (3/11/06; 11:04:59MT - msg#: 142318)

$$$$ $551.1 $$$$ osa104c (3/9/06; 18:57:24MT - msg#: 142270)

$$$$ $550.0 $$$$ Felix the Cat (3/11/06; 07:13:08MT - msg#: 142316)

$$$$ $549.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (3/4/06; 22:13:41MT - msg#: 142117)

$$$$ $549.0 $$$$ Lance (3/10/06; 12:21:40MT - msg#: 142292)

$$$$ $548.5 $$$$ beowulf + (3/10/06; 07:54:45MT - msg#: 142283)

$$$$ $548.0 $$$$ YGM (3/10/06; 09:27:26MT - msg#: 142285)

$$$$ $546.5 $$$$ Topaz (3/4/06; 20:26:10MT - msg#: 142112)

$$$$ $543.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (3/9/06; 15:50:37MT - msg#: 142260)

$$$$ $540.0 $$$$ Camel (3/10/06; 17:45:59MT - msg#: 142305)

$$$$ $539.9 $$$$ guns'n'butter (3/10/06; 22:13:53MT - msg#: 142308)

$$$$ $538.2 $$$$ Shermag (3/11/06; 11:15:34MT - msg#: 142320)

$$$$ $537.3 $$$$ balzac (3/10/06; 10:10:52MT - msg#: 142287)

$$$$ $535.7 $$$$ Toolie (3/10/06; 20:59:19MT - msg#: 142307)

$$$$ $533.0 $$$$ Nomad (3/10/06; 19:17:12MT - msg#: 142306)

$$$$ $530.0 $$$$ tejbear (3/8/06; 04:54:08MT - msg#: 142212)

$$$$ $520.0 $$$$ DryWasher (3/11/06; 09:34:28MT - msg#: 142317)

NOTE: 36 Hours before ENTRY DEADLINE !
Tick Tock !!

RadFederal retirement - G fund#1423263/11/06; 14:41:15

I worked a while for the VA and tried to get my Thrift Savings Program (like 401, employee pretax funding) and FERS refunded last September. The TSP was in the G fund. Never got a check or an explanation from either. Called TSP in January, they said no record of request so sent another. There is no phone number listed anywhere I can find for FERS.
I don't even count these funds as assets. I would be happy just to get money from TSP. They are still leading on the doc's at the VA about getting a raise, the same raise that was supposed to occur when I was there 2 years ago. They pay about 1/3 what private practice does in my specialty and about 1/2 university jobs. Nobody in HR can tell you about retirement benefits because nobody knows what they are. Filled out extensive paperwork for partial loan repayment for student loans (small fraction), one of the supposed job benefits, didn't get one cent. After I started working I found out that because I worked there I was on a short list to get "drafted" into active duty even though I never was in the service. Never again.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A world of gold at your fingertips...#1423273/11/06; 15:04:25">gold -- a global calling card
Noble1$$$$ 552.0 $$$$#1423283/11/06; 16:50:04

The Ides of March shall pass without any fireworks. But history shall recount March 2006 as the time the match was lit.
TownCrierLatest arrival from Professor von Braun -- 'An Unanswered Question'#1423293/11/06; 19:13:58


March 11th, 2006

Currently, given the rising gold price, the gold mining industry does not seem to be enjoying anything that resembles a resurgence as it once did in the early eighties, a period that led to the discovery of several new gold deposits. Instead we are hearing of a shortage of new projects, of declining production, rising costs and of little result-producing activity when it comes to exploration.

Two companies, Barrick and Newmont, now account for 25% of all gold produced in the world today...

In turn these 'major' miners have share registers heavily influenced by mutual funds, not the strongest of hands...

Takeovers and mergers have reduced the number of players within this industry considerably and I suspect it will get smaller still but not necessarily for the reasons given out by the companies themselves.

After all there is still the unexplained issue of hedge books and what to do with them in a rising gold market. Currently Barrick's mark-to-market liability is estimated by some analysts to be about $5 billion dollars -- a considerable sum. Certainly 18 million ounces, the amount hedged, is a lot of gold to deliver, even more so when rising energy prices are adding to production costs.

Now most industries would like to have bankers that allowed them to reschedule liabilities at will, which is what appears to be taking place when it comes to the apparent lack of margin calls one would expect with an often noted but never resolved increasing mark-to-market liability.

...Which bullion banks are on the other side of the hedging program Barrick touts as being so successful? Is there a plan by these bullion bankers to get that gold back at or in a different time frame to what Barrick has in mind?

...a year or so out into an ongoing rising gold market enter the bullion bankers and it's goodbye shareholders. Is this an unlikely scenario? Well maybe, maybe not. But if you have 25% of total world gold production under one roof, much of it in 'safe' countries, coupled with an 18 million ounce hedge position and gold goes to $1000 per ounce that's going to dramatically increase the mark-to-market liability and how convenient it would be if there was only one door for the liability issuer to knock on.

Time will tell, but if Barrick ever announces a bid for Newmont it may be prudent to adopt a neutral stance until the issue of mark-to-market liability is clearly resolved.

^---(from URL)---^

Visit the URL for the full article and an index of previous publications at von Braun's 'Rocket School of Economics'


The Invisible HandThe question is when#1423303/11/06; 19:28:19,,1728790,00.html

Now US debt hits 7 per cent of GDP
Heather Stewart, economics correspondent
Sunday March 12, 2006
The Observer
… the yawning deficit will put downward pressure on the dollar in the months ahead.
'In the long term, it's unsustainable,' said Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. 'The solution will have to involve curbing the appetite for imports, and a fall in the dollar - the question is when.'
The ANSWER is: Monday March 20, 2006, when the Iranian Oil Bourse opens.

pilgrims_gold$$$$ 544.8 $$$$$$#1423313/11/06; 20:08:11

Gold doesnt care about days or years or eons or milleniums, nor does it care about the Ides of March.
It doesnt care about fiat or money supply or inflation or deflation or recession or interest rates nor
does it care about m1 or m2 or Greenspan or federal reserve or bonds or stocks or derivatives.
It doesnt care about democrat or republican or facist or socialist or communist or capitalist.
It doesnt care about euroes or dollars or yens or any currency, although we believe we can take its temperature by those arbitrary measures. Gold is cold and yellow, made by the stars, and the more we have in our pockets, the safer we feel in our future.

Beer Man@ Noble1#1423323/11/06; 20:44:26

Noble1 .. I agree with you post .... but I think you are a few words short of the rules ..... it wont matter .. the price will be $568.8 !!! HA! .. Good Luck to YOU !!
7nomads$$$$518.9$$$$#1423333/11/06; 22:33:59

Since this is only a guess, the Ides of March 2006 may test us all a little bit. The beginning of the last leg now before blast off. I figure gold will briefly drop to around $464 before heading higher. But in order for it to get that low we'll see some real tricks in the trading.

But a test is "only a test". So buy the dips.

TopazAu-Ag.#1423343/11/06; 23:01:53

Ya gotta love these metals, here we have a beautiful little conundrum of the futures paper-present metal kind.
With 1100 OI still outstanding for March Silver, I'd fully expect Ag to rocket upward from here ...take PPoG with it? ...we'll see!

GoldiloxAlaska hit by 'massive' oil spill#1423353/11/06; 23:12:01


An oil spill discovered at Prudhoe Bay field is the largest ever on Alaska's North Slope region, US officials say.
They estimate that up to 267,000 gallons (one million litres) of crude leaked from a corroded transit pipeline at the state's northern tip.

The spill was detected on 2 March and plugged. Local environmentalists have described it as "a catastrophe".

In 1989, the Exxon Valdez shipping disaster spilled 11m gallons (42m litres) of oil onto the Alaskan coast.

'Painful reminder'

"I can confirm it's the largest spill of crude oil on the North Slope that we have record of," Linda Giguere, from Alaska's state department of environmental conservation, was quoted as saying by the Associated Press news agency.

The estimate is based on a survey conducted several days ago at the site where the leak was discovered, officials say.

The spill covers about two acres (one hectare) of the snow-covered tundra in the sparsely populated region on Alaska's north coast, some 1,040km (650 miles) north of the state's biggest city, Anchorage.

The source of the spill was a hole caused by internal corrosion in the pipeline, officials say. It remains unclear when the leak started.


More supply disruption and political backlash

Chris PowellProfessor von Braun's concerns about Barrick ...#1423363/11/06; 23:30:17

... are easily resolved if one accepts
that the company is essentially what
it declared itself to be during the
Blanchard lawsuit: the agent of the
central banks in the gold market and
thus entitled to share their immunity
from suit. The link to Barrick's
declaration in the Blanchard case is

Barrick further has confirmed this
declaration by announcing, as Prof.
von Braun indicates, that its hedging
contracts have a duration of 15 years
and are "evergreen" -- that is, that
their repayment can be postponed a
year every year.

As a result, Barrick's hedge book is
only a technical liability; the lenders
of the gold are the central banks and
very likely, ultimately, the U.S.
Treasury Department, and they DON'T WANT
THE GOLD BACK, for repayment would cause
a short squeeze.

GATA believes that the primary purpose
of Barrick's acquisition of Placer
Dome was to bring Placer's hedge book
under the umbrella of the "evergreen"
provisions of Barrick's hedge book --
to ensure that Placer would never
cover its hedges, nor have to, and
thus never tighten the gold market and
spike the gold price.

Barrick is never called on its hedge
book because the company is essentially
a U.S. government operation and has more
or less told the financial markets as
much. And Barrick is unlikely ever to
bid for Newmont because Newmont is not
heavily hedged and no danger to tighten
the market by closing hedges.

If governments ever want gold again, they
will have little trouble getting it,
either by nationalizing mines, increasing
mine royalty requirements, or confiscating
it from the public. But governments don't
want gold; they want a low gold price as
the reciprocal of the value of their fiat

Rimh$$$$$$$ 562.1 $$$$$$$#1423373/11/06; 23:40:11

While the Ides of March is commonly thought of as the 15th, some say it involves the latter part of March, thus covering the two other significant events slated for that time: the termination of M3 reporting and Iranian oil bourse startup. The potential of these issues to "go bad" may be the trigger for gold. As far as Beware the Ides, I would suggest we have been saying Beware the Dollar for some time, and most readers here have already prepared mentally and with physical for tough times ahead.

"LAST CALL !!" The CONTEST is still open to entry for only about 24 HOURS ! DO NOT forget to enter and have a chance to WIN the Mexican 10 Peso GOLDPIECE.

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

At the request of SIR MK, USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the APRIL, 2006 Comex contract (GCJ06) on Wednesday, March 15, 2006, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, March 12, 2006, AND ALL ENTRIES must answer SIR MK's QUESTIONS !!

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive an uncirculated Mexician 10 Peso GOLDPIECE which contains Actual Gold Content of 0.2411 fine ozs of GOLD.

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce pure Silver U.S. Eagle.

The QUESTIONS -- (actually two Questions) <;-) --
(Put on your THINKING HATS !)

The questions are, -- "Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2006 Gold Contract (GCJ06) on the date of Wednesday, March 15, 2006.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $567.8)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $567.8 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on: Sunday, March 12, 2006.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)

--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph (more or less) discussing;

GoldiloxThe Price of Inflation#1423403/12/06; 06:06:21


From 2005 to 2006 the dollar in your purse lost 4 percent of its purchasing power. So unless you got a 4 percent raise to compensate, you are working for less than you were a year ago.

A 4 percent rate may not sound like much, but thanks to the "miracle of compound interest," it can postpone your retirement or keep you on the job till you drop dead. It makes the difference between going to a four-year college or a two-year community institution or even no college at all. It can play hob with your health savings account. In ten years a 4 percent inflation rate will wipe out almost half the value of your savings.

There is a big plus side to inflation if you are in debt. Suppose that you overpaid for your house: In ten years, the value of your mortgage will have been cut in half. What holds for private debt holds for public debt, too. Should inflation stay at the present rate or go higher, the gigantic deficits incurred by George Bush will not, after all, have to be paid off by our grandchildren as they keep warning us will happen. The deficits will disappear in a flood tide of cheap money.

The reason is that a dollar borrowed now, if paid back after fifteen years, will be worth about 40 cents. Because employers understand how compound interest shrinks the buying power of a dollar so quickly, you have to hold a gun to their heads to get them to agree to cost-of-living increases. The same knowledge prompts Republicans to do all in their power to decouple Social Security payments from their annual cost of living adjustment.

From time immemorial, inflation is how governments have wiggled out of repaying what they owe. Back in the days when all money was copper, silver or gold, its purchasing power was lessened by minting coins with less precious metal in them. Next came printing more dollar bills. Nowadays debasing the currency is accomplished by a few computer keystrokes.

Economists and finance big shots will sometimes talk about "an acceptable level of inflation." They do not discuss who decides what that level might be. Since inflation, depending on how bad it is, always attacks savings, frustrates financial and personal planning, causes sky-high interest rates, lowered investment, unemployment, recession and, if it's bad enough and goes on long enough, chaos, panic, despair and social disintegration, how can it ever be acceptable?

It was as predictable as spring following winter that the Bush deficits would be followed by the Bush inflation to pay for them. It's his appointees on the Federal Reserve Board and the Treasury Department you may blame. No beasts, no storms, no earthquakes or any other act of nature. When you see your money evaporating in front of your eyes, don't call the weather bureau. Call the politicians.


A nice leftist view found on!

GoldiloxCentral Bank Tales#1423413/12/06; 06:10:49


"Tokyo ends loose-money policy," says a NY Times headline.

After 16 years of slump, deflation, bust and aimless chopping, Japan's economy seems to be stirring. It seems to be coming back to life. So, central bankers are taking down the I.V. drips of cash and credit that have kept the failing banks alive and encouraged bad investments. The patient is recovering and no longer needs constant medication.

Henceforth, borrowers will have to pay for money in Japan just like they do everywhere else. And henceforth, speculators may not be as flush. For several years now, they have been able to borrow from Japan at practically zero interest and re-deploy the money elsewhere. The world took to this easy money like a panda to bamboo shoots. The credit goosed up emerging markets in the Mid East, built factories in Asia and even contributed to the boom in consumer spending in North America.

So much so, that the boomers – we mean, the consumer boomers – now seem to think they no longer need to save money. In January, the savings rate in the U.S. fell to negative 0.5%, for the first time in history. Yet, more Americans than ever before are preparing to retire. What will they retire on? We don't know. They have houses. They have credit cards. There is always that ready money in Asia to draw on, just in case.

"Trade balance hits new record," runs another headline.

In January, Americans spent $68.5 billion more from foreigners than they earned from them. At this rate, in a year's time, the trade balance will reach negative $822 billion – not too far from $1 trillion. It's close enough to the point where the entire scheme blows up in our faces, though how much closer we don't know.

Americans have always been famous for parting with money rather than saving it, but these days, they are parting with so much that their own incomes aren't enough for it. They need other people's income to keep parting with cash at the same pace. When they buy a new Toyota, for example, they have to borrow the money from a finance company that also borrows – at the lowest rates it can get. So, the rate they pay to buy their car depends on the rate the finance company can get, which mostly depends on the low rates set by the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Bernanke. It is thanks to easy credit from these two worthies, that the American lumpenhouseholder is able to buy his car at all – or even his house – without any money of his own. The sale brings dollars and profits to the Japanese, which are then recycled back to the United States as debt so the American consumer can dig himself into an even roomier hole.

And here in Britain this morning, the press has this headline: "Courts swamped with bad debt cases."

It could have been a headline from the United States. On both sides of the Atlantic, the proles are getting squeezed. In order to maintain his illusion of financial progress, the average working stiff has to borrow against his house or on his credit cards. Borrowing has become easy, thanks to the aforementioned central bankers. Paying back may not be so easy, because the same waves of globalized commerce that throw up glittering aisles full of tempting gadgets and gizmos in Long Beach and London – the same currents of trade that bring him automobiles from Asia and bananas from Latin America are lapping against his own earning power and washing chunks of it away. Wages in rich countries are slowly being eroded...reduced to sea-level...brought down to the lowest common denominator the world labor market can produce.

And meanwhile, the rich grow richer.

"World gains 102 more billionaires," says the Houston Chronicle. There are now 793 of them and their wealth grew 18% last year. Currently, they have about $2.6 trillion, according to the Forbes estimate.

slingshot$$$$$$$$$ $542.0 $$$$$$$$$#1423423/12/06; 08:07:56

This particular "Ides of March", should be a significant turning point for Gold. There are plenty of warnings but, to change psychologically, a major event must occur to impact the daily lives of the public. The introduction of the possible use of nuclear weapons has greatly increased the chance of cascading events that would follow such an usage. To make a point, if the victims of the storms had even a small amount of gold to take with them, I am sure it would have made all the difference in the world. On the other hand how do you defend yourself if a chemical or manufactured biological weapon is deployed much less a natural virus as the Bird Flu? How would gold behave? Depending on the circumstance there will be two types of people buying gold. First,the ones who are scare out of their wits and the second,those trend investors that will drive the POG way out of reach.
Yes, "Beware the Ides of March". Should we beware. Could the soothsayer just have said, "Beware the Ides of June" or some other time. He was trying to give Caesar the Heads Up. When the Senate members fell upon him, his final words "Et te Brute" to the one he most trusted (FIAT).
This "Ides of March" of 2006, we should beware. The Empire is rotten within and the seeds of change, (world events), have been planted.

R Powell $$$$$$$$ 545.6 $$$$$$$$$#1423433/12/06; 08:10:14

Anticipating prices is possible if "greatly increasing probabilities of a correct forecast" is an acceptable definition of "Anticipating". To be both correct on price direction + market timing is such a rare occurance as to bring forth the concept of being "Fooled by Randomness".

The Ides of March have no economic significance UNLESS enough market investors believe that a significance does exist. Perception is often as strong a market mover as anyone's reality. That enough market players (price determiners) would put faith in the Ides idea is not likely.

mikalAussie Au#1423443/12/06; 09:29:13

Back to the Future- Australia Goes For the Gold
Kuwait Times - March 12, 2006

goldenpeace$$$$$$553.10$$$$$$$$#1423453/12/06; 10:03:14

Of course the Ides of March is just a nominal date on the calendar....and since time does not really exist...only appears does not by itself mean a thing......HOWEVER , the pressure built up in the geopolitical system and in the financial markets feels very stressful at this time, so stressful in fact that the exclamation.."Stand Back, She's Going to Blow!"...seems most appropriate. Too much avoidance by the $ system and too much manipulation, using derivatives, for too long leads to this conditional point. Gold, of the physical sort, is the only true way to stand aside and preserve value.
Thanks to the forum and MK


Goldenera$$$$$$$$ $515 $$$$$$$$#1423463/12/06; 10:22:00

Mahendran has given me the creeps about the coming downturn of precious metals ... so I think Ides of March 2006 could be the significant turning point psychologically for gold. Having said that I am for Gold to shoot off to new record highs in the near future.

If you believe this, then we indeed ought to be beware the IDES OF MARCH. Good Luck to All!

ToolieBalancing the current account deficit#1423473/12/06; 10:48:15

Snip: An executive for the overseas consortium that wants to lease out the Indiana Toll Road today defended the agreement, saying the partnership "is proposing to invest in Indiana."
At a Statehouse news conference, Stephen Allen, chief executive officer for Macquarie Infrastructure Group of Sydney, sought to ease resistance among some lawmakers and the public to overseas ownership. Macquarie, along with Cintra, a Madrid-based firm, has offered the state an immediate payment of $3.85 billion for the right to take control of Toll Road operations, maintenance and revenues for 75 years.
"What I'm actually doing is proposing to invest in Indiana," Allen said. "I'm actually talking about creating jobs here."
He added: "We are not operating a factory where investment may come and you may decide to move it somewhere else. I will assure you today, for the next 75 years, the Indiana Toll Road will be in Indiana if we are the lessors." (end snip)

I ask what is to prevent the legislatures of the several states from privatizing all state highways and thereby soaking up the several trillion foreign owned US$? Of course that would extend the ability of the US to continue to flood the world with paper. After the highways, there are the lakes and rivers, whose contents can be sold. How about he national forests and parks?

Suddenly, those Chinese goods don't look so inexpensive. It could well be that the emergence of this type of exchange marks the end of the shadowy CB gold trades for Mid-east oil. By that mean that that the US fed/Treasury has parted with all the gold that they are going to, and going forward they intend to substitute the sale of physical infrastructure for physical gold.

I think I'll write in and see about taking delivery of my share of bricks in the Washington Monument.

Gandalf the WhiteTHANKS, Sir Mikal --- The Hobbits love stories like that !#1423483/12/06; 10:54:58

mikal (3/12/06; 09:29:13MT - msg#: 142344)
Aussie Au

Max Rabbitz$$$$ $539.0 $$$$#1423493/12/06; 11:07:39

The Ides of March are only significant if you are a renowned Roman general who threatens the interests of the Empire's Money Masters by directly issuing money in the form of gold and silver coins. Some people believe Lincoln had a similar problem with European Banking interests when he issued Greenbacks. Lincoln managed to survive several weeks past the Ides of March.
24Wortel$$$$ $543.7 $$$$#1423503/12/06; 11:21:03

The Ides of March would be pivotal, if only a modern-day Brutus would be inspired by the historical significance of the Ides to remove from office our very own (but low IQ, militarily inept, etc etc) Caesar.


The "Ides of March" POG CONTEST

Following are listed the POG CONTEST entries !
(Listed in order of DECREASING values)

$$$$ $750.0 $$$$ Beamer (3/3/06; 16:07:46MT - msg#: 142093)

**** $606.6 **** mdgc (3/9/06; 09:02:14MT - msg#: 142246)

$$$$ $601.0 $$$$ Armageddon (3/7/06; 18:25:32MT - msg#: 142207)

$$$$ $600.0 $$$$ el dorado (3/6/06; 16:58:32MT - msg#: 142174)

$$$$ $599.0 $$$$ contrarian (3/11/06; 01:22:28MT - msg#: 142314)

$$$$ $587.0 $$$$ Sundeck (3/6/06; 21:09:59MT - msg#: 142183)

$$$$ $585.8 $$$$ Waverider (3/4/06; 21:01:58MT - msg#: 142114)

$$$$ $583.4 $$$$ Flatliner (3/3/06; 10:39:39MT - msg#: 142088)

$$$$ $580.1 $$$$ Slowman (3/5/06; 15:33:02MT - msg#: 142138)

$$$$ $578.9 $$$$ Matthew (3/11/06; 02:50:36MT - msg#: 142315)

$$$$ $577.1 $$$$ Chally (3/5/06; 22:37:54MT - msg#: 142151)

$$$$ $574.5 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (3/5/06; 13:28:05MT - msg#: 142135)
**** $574.4 **** arbyh (3/5/06; 11:43:24MT - msg#: 142133)

$$$$ $572.0 $$$$ Clink! (3/7/06; 06:40:36MT - msg#: 142190)
$$$$ $571.9 $$$$ glockmaster19 (3/7/06; 14:33:19MT - msg#: 142198)

$$$$ $570.0 $$$$ Liberty Head (3/5/06; 14:02:09MT - msg#: 142137)

$$$$ $568.8 $$$$ Beer Man (03/04/06; 12:17:16MT - msg#: 142102)

$$$$ $568.4 $$$$ Freedom (3/5/06; 11:12:11MT - msg#: 142131)

$$$$ $567.6 $$$$ The Knife (3/6/06; 17:14:28MT - msg#: 142175)

$$$$ $565.0 $$$$ Rocky (3/3/06; 14:30:02MT - msg#: 142091)

$$$$ $564.7 $$$$ Mthirsty1 (3/6/06; 17:55:50MT - msg#: 142179)

$$$ FRN564.0 $$$ Goldilox (3/7/06; 12:45:03MT - msg#: 142193)

$$$$ $562.1 $$$$ Rimh (3/11/06; 23:40:11MT - msg#: 142337)

$$$ FRN560.5 $$$ Smeagol (3/4/06; 18:22:20MT - msg#: 142108)

$$$$ $559.8 $$$$ 2023 (3/9/06; 02:13:17MT - msg#: 142241)

**** $558.3 **** Boilermaker (3/9/06; 17:02:04MT - msg#: 142265)

$$$$ $555.5 $$$$ Usul (3/10/06; 13:04:58MT - msg#: 142293)

$$$$ $553.8 $$$$ 24karat (3/11/06; 11:04:59MT - msg#: 142318)

$$$$ $553.1 $$$$ goldenpeace (3/12/06; 10:03:14MT - msg#: 142345)

$$$$ $552.0 $$$$ Noble1 (3/11/06; 16:50:04MT - msg#: 142328)

$$$$ $551.1 $$$$ osa104c (3/9/06; 18:57:24MT - msg#: 142270)

$$$$ $550.0 $$$$ Felix the Cat (3/11/06; 07:13:08MT - msg#: 142316)

$$$$ $549.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (3/4/06; 22:13:41MT - msg#: 142117)

$$$$ $549.0 $$$$ Lance (3/10/06; 12:21:40MT - msg#: 142292)

$$$$ $548.5 $$$$ beowulf + (3/10/06; 07:54:45MT - msg#: 142283)

$$$$ $548.0 $$$$ YGM (3/10/06; 09:27:26MT - msg#: 142285)

$$$$ $546.5 $$$$ Topaz (3/4/06; 20:26:10MT - msg#: 142112)

$$$$ $545.6 $$$$ R Powell (3/12/06; 08:10:14MT - msg#: 142343)

$$$$ $544.8 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (3/11/06; 20:08:11MT - msg#: 142331)

$$$$ $543.7 $$$$ 24Wortel (3/12/06; 11:21:03MT - msg#: 142350)

$$$$ $543.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (3/9/06; 15:50:37MT - msg#: 142260)

$$$$ $542.0 $$$$ slingshot (3/12/06; 08:07:56MT - msg#: 142342)

$$$$ $540.0 $$$$ Camel (3/10/06; 17:45:59MT - msg#: 142305)

$$$$ $539.9 $$$$ guns'n'butter (3/10/06; 22:13:53MT - msg#: 142308)

$$$$ $539.0 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (3/12/06; 11:07:39MT - msg#: 142349)

$$$$ $538.2 $$$$ Shermag (3/11/06; 11:15:34MT - msg#: 142320)

$$$$ $537.3 $$$$ balzac (3/10/06; 10:10:52MT - msg#: 142287)

$$$$ $535.7 $$$$ Toolie (3/10/06; 20:59:19MT - msg#: 142307)

$$$$ $533.0 $$$$ Nomad (3/10/06; 19:17:12MT - msg#: 142306)

$$$$ $530.0 $$$$ tejbear (3/8/06; 04:54:08MT - msg#: 142212)

$$$$ $520.0 $$$$ DryWasher (3/11/06; 09:34:28MT - msg#: 142317)

$$$$ $518.9 $$$$ 7nomads (3/11/06; 22:33:59MT - msg#: 142333)

$$$$ $515.0 $$$$ Goldenera (3/12/06; 10:22:00MT - msg#: 142346)
tick tock !!

Gandalf the WhiteLet me REITERATE ! ---- <;-)#1423523/12/06; 12:17:20

tick tock !!

GoldendomeToolie: Traveling a Mexican Toll highway.#1423533/12/06; 12:20:40

Toolie: I'm reminded by your mention of toll roads, that our neighbors to the South, finance some of their major highways with tolls. The major highways running south from from the U.S. border cities of Tijuana and Nogales both charge tolls and there a probably more.

I can recall several years ago driving with friends the highway from Tijuana to Ensenada, Mexico. Beautiful highway, really, I thought. Unlike the U.S. freeway system where attempts are usually made to flatten every hillock and fill every dip, the Mexican system though four lanes wide, followed much more closely the contour of the land--a semi-mountainous region along the coast where we wove in and out to cliffs edge; up and down the gentle swales and ridges that ran down from the higher peaks to the east.

The highway reminded me of older U.S. highways that run along the West Coast of the United States, highway 1 and 101 that runs from Southern Cal., through Oregon and Washington states. Up and down, back and forth, but very scenic. Built in the old days of U.S. highway construction when we too more closely followed the lay of the land.

Back to the story: Every so many miles on the highway to Ensenada, we would come to a toll booth. Pay a little bit more (I can't now remember the fee exactly, but, like, $1.25 per car) and you proceeded. Run out of money and you were outta there--down an exit ramp and traveling what we in the U.S. would refer to as a "Frontage road" that usually parallels the super highway, but deals with all of the intersections, stops, etc. involved with off the freeway driving. This in Mexico can be dangerous, so we continued to pay the toll. The freeway was not heavily traveled, about half the cars were Mexican and half were "Gringos" paying for construction and upkeep of a foreign highway. Very savvy on their part, I thought. As I recall, we paid the toll three times- total, on the way to and back from Ensenada to the U.S., about 150 miles round trip. The local natives, I'm sure, learn quickly where they can get onto and then off of the toll freeways, using the frontage roads in such ways to bypass the toll booths . (We did this once ourselves on the way back.) It really was a fun and enlightening short trip on the highways of Mexico.
Best to all, G-dome.

The Hoople$$$$ 553.4 $$$$#1423543/12/06; 12:43:27

March should bring major turmoil, whether the price managers can keep a lid on it (gold) is the question. Judging by last week they're doing a pretty fair job. Watching a 68.5b trade deficit get shrugged off by the paper pushers made me realize again how crucial it is to keep "all is calm". Wall Street apparently substitutes a declining gold price for Lunesta whenever they need to sleep at night. Whether March will be crucial remains to be seen. What is known is that gold will remain in a multi-year uptrend, price managed or not.
Prius$$$$$ $542.3 $$$$$#1423553/12/06; 13:16:20

It would be interesting to look back in history over the past 500 years and see if the perception and expectation of the Ides of March indeed leads to negative results. It seems that gold will "make it's own way" now. I think that we could see negative global events this week that would make the gentlemen and ladies here seem very wise.
geGold Production falling?#1423563/12/06; 13:36:35

Belgian once said that oil and gold production decreased as the prices inceased in order to economize the product. Hard to believe; but it is happening before our eyes. Should the economics textbooks be re-written? Or should I skip the free market sections and read the oligopolistic pricing sections?

Dr. Clive Roffey argues for gold production cycles at the attached link.

There is a a similar article in three parts by Dr Thomas Chaize at the following link. It was written in 2003, but is still relevant.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A special combo of assets and info to help you enter the market with grace and confidence!#1423573/12/06; 15:07:13">gold ownership starter kit
Tate$$$545.2$$$#1423583/12/06; 15:29:09

There is no doubt we shell achieve new Au price highs this year. As Jim Sinclair often states common share US dollar is in decline and this alone guarantees gold higher price. For this I place my prediction for April gold at 545.2
Buongiorno!$$$$$534$$$$#1423593/12/06; 16:19:16

Uncle Sam Caesar strode to the forum, only a little mindful of warnings from the toothless one, "Beware of the ides of March!" So preoccupied, he did not heed the gaggle of assassins, most of whom he had helped in times past. Friends, he thought....then came the dagger strokes, mostly from behind, wounding but not killing. The death blow, a fierce thrust shanked his lung and heart, coming again from the rear, in the manner of most cowardly attacks. He half-turned, trying to focus blurring eyes and said,"E' tu ........" Ides of March any more dangerous than other times? Nah, we just try to sell a little strength and buy a little weakness, or, shank them before they shank you!

Smeagol #1423603/12/06; 16:23:18

"He half-turned, trying to focus blurring eyes and said,"E' tu ........"... his own reflection in the mirror, perhapss?


canamami$$$$554.7$$$$#1423613/12/06; 17:44:26

The Ides of March have indeed already occurred for the POG denominated in $US. The move by Japan to end its zero interest rate policy means Japanese money will contribute less to holding up the $US. This will create pressure on China to stop almost single-handedly propping up the $US. When China buckles, then others who hold $US will face similar pressure to move away from the $US. The chain reaction will continue, and the POG will rise in $US terms. Also, this will bring gold back into focus as a reserve asset, which will create a (1) "piling on" effect re the $US price of gold, and (2) a paradigm shift back to gold's former role as the pre-eminent reserve asset.

Now, I have left out the effects of possible March military action re Iran, which would be the Ides of March cubed.

Black Blade$$$$$544.40$$$$#1423623/12/06; 18:36:09

"Beware the Ides of March," originated with the Roman Emperor, Julius Caesar, who was assassinated on the Ides of March - March 15, 44 B.C. In the ancient Roman calendar, each of the 12 months of the year had an "ides." In March, May, July and October, the "ides" fell on the 15th day. In every other month, the "ides" fell on the 13th. The word "ides" was derived from the Latin "to divide." The "ides" were originally meant to mark the full moon - but since the solar calendar months and lunar months were of different lengths, the "ides" quickly lost their original intent and purpose.

Most of us in the west know of the "Ides of March" from a play by William Shakespeare about a soothsayer who was a Roman astrologer by the name of Spurinna. According to an account written by Plutarch in 75 A.D and Suetonius in 110 A.D. Apparently Spurinna warned Caesar to "beware of the Ides of March." If Julius Caesar were to take precautions he was to survive. He disregarded the warning and Caesar's enemies assassinated him in the Pompey theater, at the foot of Pompey's statue, where the Roman Senate was meeting that day in the temple of Venus.

For gold investors and goldbugs, the warning takes on a different significance. March is a slow time of the year as the Western Holiday Season, Asian Festival Season and Asian Marriage Season have ended. Jewelers don't ramp up buying until summer into early fall when they get a good sense of the regional economies, how Asian harvests will likely progress, and of course they look for a pull back in prices to maximize profits. Of course these pull backs give us a chance to dip into the market and take advantage of relatively low prices. For us the Ides of March are welcome. The recent correction in precious metals are not all that unexpected. It is the cyclical nature of the business – a.k.a. "seasonality".

Essentially, the "Ides of March" are more a blessing for investors seeking a good deal on precious metals – and a bad deal for Roman Emperors with friends named Brutus. ;-)

- Black Blade

Believer$$$$$ 556.6 $$$$$#1423633/12/06; 19:01:30

1. IDES NO ! IDES+5 - IDES+12 Possibly.

goldquest$$$$563.40$$$$#1423643/12/06; 19:09:55

We have already reached the turning point for gold.
No, we should not "Beware the Ides of March."
Many things have occurred on the 15th of March, good and bad.
Maine became a state on 15 Mar. 1820.
Andrew Jackson was born on 15 Mar. 1767
The first presidential news conference was held 15 mar. 1913. (Woodrow Wilson.)
General Pershing, with 15,000 troops, chased Pancho Villa into Mexico, 15 mar. 1916
Elizabeth Taylor married her 5th husband on 15 Mar. 1964 (Richard Burton)I don't know if this was good or bad!
The U.S. Mint stopped selling or buying GOLD on 15 Mar. 1968.
Aristotle Onassis died on 15 Mar. 1975.
Attempted asassination of George Wallace on 15 Mar. 1972.
And of course the biggie: Julius Caesar died on this date in 0044. He was in the process of asking his buddy Brutus if he had et yet. Julius was going to invite him out for a "Ceasar Salad" when he was suddenly "cut" short.
So again, we should not beware the Ides of March, but two days later, is a call for concern! St. Paddy's Day, ye know.

mikal"Bonds" of slavery- contract with the devil#1423653/12/06; 19:12:50

On his trip to the moon, George W. Bush has paused for a brief interlude amongst the stars. He can now take pride in the fact that he's raised the national debt more than any other president in history.
Five months and sixteen days into the 2006 fiscal year, the national debt has gone up $337.2 billion and is holding at a pittance under the statutory limit of $8.184 trillion.
And all through the house not a creature is stirring, not even a mouse. Congress returned from vacation, opened their Valentines, and has done nothing to propose raising the debt limit in order to allow George to borrow more money.
The media, the watchdogs, the stink tanks, economists, and others supposedly concerned with fiscal discipline haven't made a peep. In loyal obedience, they are all sitting back and waiting for the engine of our debtor economy to start up again.
The only activity is in John Snow's Treasury Department. He and his staff of accountants are scurrying all over the place to snatch money from the Thrift Savings Plan, money confiscated from drug dealers, or any other place they can find cash to keep the federal government going. Before Christmas, Snow warned Congress that he couldn't maintain things beyond mid-March.
They do all this, and still have time to hold "auctions" on as many flavors of treasury securities as Baskin Robbins has of ice cream. Continuing to borrow enough money to pay off the billions in older securities maturing every day and replace them before the lenders have time to cash their checks. They are heavily engaged in "floating" the debt at just twenty-five million under the ceiling.
April fifteenth will provide another respite. While the vast majority of taxpayers will be claiming refunds, there will be a sufficient number of the wealthy filing their final quarterly estimates and many small independent business owners turning in their yearly taxes to allow the government to come out ahead. It will probably generate enough money for another month or so of federal spending even though that money has already been budgeted for specific 2006 programs. It can always be returned after George is allowed to borrow again and as long as foreign countries like China and Japan can be intimidated into loaning us more.
And where does this leave the American taxpayer?
Congress has yet to join in its usual dance of yelling and screaming about "fiscal responsibility" before they do what they always do – raise the debt limit another trillion or so. It's becoming an annual event. This will be the fourth time they've done so in the five years of the Bush administration.
But they can't stall forever. It's impossible for them to indefinitely put off raising the debt limit. And I'm not talking about the unending war against an enemy that can't be identified or profiled, an enemy that can enter our ports and borders anytime they want. I'm talking about how the federal government is hoisted by its own petard – the scam they've invented to fleece the taxpaying public.
They can't stall beyond June because half of the annual "interest" is due entitlements like Social Security, Medicare, and the Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS), an amount that comes to more than $73 billion this June (for a grand total of $146 billion in interest this fiscal year).
There's no real money involved in this semi-annual payment of so-called interest. All the Treasury does is issue more "special" bonds deposited in the equally bogus trust funds for each of these entitlements. But it does raise the national debt. Like a rocket, it would send them crashing through the current national debt ceiling.
In that respect it's very real. It becomes a future tax to be paid someday by taxpayers and their children if they also become taxpayers.
In fact, it's already happening with all three of these entitlements. Due to receipt shortfalls, both Medicare and Social Security's disability insurance have had sporadic withdrawals in the past year. And it's happening big time with FERS that is billions in the red every month except September when it receives a mysterious deposit of enough bogus bonds to keep it ahead of the game.
In other words, the American taxpayers are already covering shortfalls in these entitlements long before the "baby boomer" scare story is supposed to hit us.
The saddest, most sickening, preposterous part of it all is that there is no legitimate reason for these "interest" payments. They are done only to support and carry on the fraudulent and fictitious story of having "borrowed" or "invested" surpluses taxpayers provided through excessive payroll taxes. The pirates will never admit that these surpluses were stolen and spent elsewhere. At least, that's the case with Social Security and Medicare.
With FERS, there has never been a surplus. Receipts are always less than outlays. And the only reason there are any receipts at all, any donations or premium payments from federal employees, is so they can chalk up their eight-to-one in matching benefits. The entire program is run on the backs of taxpayers while benefits are always paid from the Treasury's general fund of current taxpayer dollars or money borrowed (the future tax).
With the federal employees Life & Health program it's even worse. There are never any receipts at all, yet hundreds of millions per month are paid out in benefits. On top of that, the "outlays" are recorded as "surpluses" increasing the programs holdings. The only saving grace here is that there is never any "interest" deposited against the previous year's closing balance.
There are also 117 smaller trust funds other than the entitlements that account for 92 percent of the Intragovernmental Holdings side of the national debt. Except for what was once donated by philanthropists, these other trusts are established by legislation that merely names an account and dumps "special" bonds in the account.
In summary
The Beltway Bandits could do us all a favor by forgetting about dumping "interest" bonds into entitlement accounts piling debt on top of debt. If Bush needs to borrow another hundred billion, all he needs to do is erase that amount from Social Security's $1.876 trillion in bogus bonds and he would have room under the debt ceiling to do it.
In fact, they could start reducing the national debt by 42 percent simply by erasing all of the fraudulent accounts they've set up only to disguise their crimes and, in the case of Social Security, Medicare, and some other entitlements, to double tax us.
How long will the public put up with this fraudulent extortion?
(Published originally at : republication allowed with this notice and hyperlink intact. Ed Henry is the founder of TUFF, the Taxpayers Union, and a regular columnist for Ether

compwiz4u$$$$ $566 $$$$ #1423663/12/06; 19:19:03

The world political and financial situation has me worried about the Ides of March and every other day in the future for that matter.

Each morning I wake and wonder what disaster has occurred overnight. I know our leaders have destroyed the financial system and need to find a cover story that the masses will accept for the hyperinflation and depression ahead of us.

I see nothing significant about March 15 to affect the price of gold except as another day in which more people realize the jig is up and start moving their wealth into precious metals insurance.

MKNow that the contest nears conclusion#1423673/12/06; 19:41:52

I feel comfortable in throwing out my own view of the Ides of March. It's not so much that we should beware the ides of March, but that we should "be aware" that there this an "unknown" to which we are all subject, "the unspoken word," for which we all must listen, "the left-field event" of which we have limited understanding and control. That could come at any time, from any direction. And that's why we own gold. Those who are secure in their belief that they understand the world we live in and have nothing to fear but fear itself do not need gold. It is only we more humble souls who beware the ides of life and history who feel the need to own gold. Caesar should have listened, but then again, some write the history that he already knew he was going to die.

In lieu of the price guess, let me just say that the Iran and carry trade premiums that just left, may now be coming back.


LESS THAN THREE and one-half HOURS, BEFORE the MIDNIGHT Denver time, "entry deadline" !
tick tock !!


The "Ides of March" POG CONTEST

Following are listed the POG CONTEST entries !
(Listed in order of DECREASING values)

$$$$ $750.0 $$$$ Beamer (3/3/06; 16:07:46MT - msg#: 142093)

**** $606.6 **** mdgc (3/9/06; 09:02:14MT - msg#: 142246)

$$$$ $601.0 $$$$ Armageddon (3/7/06; 18:25:32MT - msg#: 142207)

$$$$ $600.0 $$$$ el dorado (3/6/06; 16:58:32MT - msg#: 142174)

$$$$ $599.0 $$$$ contrarian (3/11/06; 01:22:28MT - msg#: 142314)

$$$$ $587.0 $$$$ Sundeck (3/6/06; 21:09:59MT - msg#: 142183)

$$$$ $585.8 $$$$ Waverider (3/4/06; 21:01:58MT - msg#: 142114)

$$$$ $583.4 $$$$ Flatliner (3/3/06; 10:39:39MT - msg#: 142088)

$$$$ $580.1 $$$$ Slowman (3/5/06; 15:33:02MT - msg#: 142138)

$$$$ $578.9 $$$$ Matthew (3/11/06; 02:50:36MT - msg#: 142315)

$$$$ $577.1 $$$$ Chally (3/5/06; 22:37:54MT - msg#: 142151)

$$$$ $574.5 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (3/5/06; 13:28:05MT - msg#: 142135)
**** $574.4 **** arbyh (3/5/06; 11:43:24MT - msg#: 142133)

$$$$ $572.0 $$$$ Clink! (3/7/06; 06:40:36MT - msg#: 142190)
$$$$ $571.9 $$$$ glockmaster19 (3/7/06; 14:33:19MT - msg#: 142198)

$$$$ $570.0 $$$$ Liberty Head (3/5/06; 14:02:09MT - msg#: 142137)

$$$$ $568.8 $$$$ Beer Man (03/04/06; 12:17:16MT - msg#: 142102)

$$$$ $568.4 $$$$ Freedom (3/5/06; 11:12:11MT - msg#: 142131)

$$$$ $567.6 $$$$ The Knife (3/6/06; 17:14:28MT - msg#: 142175)

$$$$ $566.0 $$$$ compwiz4u (3/12/06; 19:19:03MT - msg#: 142366)

$$$$ $565.0 $$$$ Rocky (3/3/06; 14:30:02MT - msg#: 142091)

$$$$ $564.7 $$$$ Mthirsty1 (3/6/06; 17:55:50MT - msg#: 142179)

$$$ FRN564.0 $$$ Goldilox (3/7/06; 12:45:03MT - msg#: 142193)

$$$$ $563.4 $$$$ goldquest (3/12/06; 19:09:55MT - msg#: 142364)

$$$$ $562.1 $$$$ Rimh (3/11/06; 23:40:11MT - msg#: 142337)

$$$ FRN560.5 $$$ Smeagol (3/4/06; 18:22:20MT - msg#: 142108)

$$$$ $559.8 $$$$ 2023 (3/9/06; 02:13:17MT - msg#: 142241)

**** $558.3 **** Boilermaker (3/9/06; 17:02:04MT - msg#: 142265)

$$$$ $556.6 $$$$ Believer (3/12/06; 19:01:30MT - msg#: 142363)

$$$$ $555.5 $$$$ Usul (3/10/06; 13:04:58MT - msg#: 142293)

$$$$ $554.7 $$$$ canamami (3/12/06; 17:44:26MT - msg#: 142361)

$$$$ $553.8 $$$$ 24karat (3/11/06; 11:04:59MT - msg#: 142318)

$$$$ $553.4 $$$$ The Hoople (3/12/06; 12:43:27MT - msg#: 142354)

$$$$ $553.1 $$$$ goldenpeace (3/12/06; 10:03:14MT - msg#: 142345)

$$$$ $552.0 $$$$ Noble1 (3/11/06; 16:50:04MT - msg#: 142328)

$$$$ $551.1 $$$$ osa104c (3/9/06; 18:57:24MT - msg#: 142270)

$$$$ $550.0 $$$$ Felix the Cat (3/11/06; 07:13:08MT - msg#: 142316)

$$$$ $549.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (3/4/06; 22:13:41MT - msg#: 142117)

$$$$ $549.0 $$$$ Lance (3/10/06; 12:21:40MT - msg#: 142292)

$$$$ $548.5 $$$$ beowulf + (3/10/06; 07:54:45MT - msg#: 142283)

$$$$ $548.0 $$$$ YGM (3/10/06; 09:27:26MT - msg#: 142285)

$$$$ $546.5 $$$$ Topaz (3/4/06; 20:26:10MT - msg#: 142112)

$$$$ $545.6 $$$$ R Powell (3/12/06; 08:10:14MT - msg#: 142343)

$$$$ $545.2 $$$$ Tate (3/12/06; 15:29:09MT - msg#: 142358)

$$$$ $544.8 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (3/11/06; 20:08:11MT - msg#: 142331)

$$$$ $544.4 $$$$ Black Blade (3/12/06; 18:36:09MT - msg#: 142362)

$$$$ $543.7 $$$$ 24Wortel (3/12/06; 11:21:03MT - msg#: 142350)

$$$$ $543.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (3/9/06; 15:50:37MT - msg#: 142260)

$$$$ $542.3 $$$$ Prius (3/12/06; 13:16:20MT - msg#: 142355)

$$$$ $542.0 $$$$ slingshot (3/12/06; 08:07:56MT - msg#: 142342)

$$$$ $540.0 $$$$ Camel (3/10/06; 17:45:59MT - msg#: 142305)

$$$$ $539.9 $$$$ guns'n'butter (3/10/06; 22:13:53MT - msg#: 142308)

$$$$ $539.0 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (3/12/06; 11:07:39MT - msg#: 142349)

$$$$ $538.2 $$$$ Shermag (3/11/06; 11:15:34MT - msg#: 142320)

$$$$ $537.3 $$$$ balzac (3/10/06; 10:10:52MT - msg#: 142287)

$$$$ $535.7 $$$$ Toolie (3/10/06; 20:59:19MT - msg#: 142307)

$$$$ $534.0 $$$$ Buongiorno! (3/12/06; 16:19:16MT - msg#: 142359)

$$$$ $533.0 $$$$ Nomad (3/10/06; 19:17:12MT - msg#: 142306)

$$$$ $530.0 $$$$ tejbear (3/8/06; 04:54:08MT - msg#: 142212)

$$$$ $520.0 $$$$ DryWasher (3/11/06; 09:34:28MT - msg#: 142317)

$$$$ $518.9 $$$$ 7nomads (3/11/06; 22:33:59MT - msg#: 142333)

$$$$ $515.0 $$$$ Goldenera (3/12/06; 10:22:00MT - msg#: 142346)

Wky_Woodsman$$$$556.0$$$$#1423693/12/06; 20:48:37

The IDES of March are written in a story.

Holding physical gold is the penultimate in real wealth. It is reality.

Those of us who hold the penultimate have arrived at our destination and can turn our attention to the beauty of each and every day right here where we are.

Those of us still building wealth have to learn to know when it is that we are at our destination. We may already be in our "Shangri-la" and be too busy accumulating to realize we are there.

The Invisible HandMK, Pythagoras and Humility#1423703/12/06; 21:18:14

The word humility (humilitas in Latin) has the same etymological origin as homo (man) and humus (earth). Pythagoras was the first to call himself a "philosopher".

His humility drew him indeed to calling himself NOT a wise man, BUT a philosopher, a friend of wisdom.

And he went on to compare the life of man to
"…great festival celebrated... before the concourse from the whole of Greece. At this festival some people sought to win the glorious distinction of a crown; and others, again, were attracted by the prospect of material gain through buying and selling. But there were also a certain type of people, and that quite the best type of men, who were interested neither in competing, applauding nor in seeking gain, but who came solely for the sake of the spectacle itself, and, hence, closely watched what was done and how it was done. And so also we, as though we had come from some city to a crowded festival, leaving in like fashion another life and another nature of being, entered upon this life. And some were slaves of ambition, and some were slaves of money. But there were a special few who, counting all else for nothing, closely scanned the nature of things. These gave themselves the name of ‘philosophers’ (sapientiae studiosi) – and this is the meaning of the term ‘philosophers’. And just as at these festivals the men of the most exalted education looked on without any self-seeking intent, so too, in life the dispassionate contemplation of things and their rational apprehension (cognitio) or understanding by far surpasses all other pursuits"

Let us continue watching the unfolding or developing festival.

mikal$$$$$580.00$$$$$#1423713/12/06; 22:32:29

Here's a guess for Julius Caesar
Or something close, a goldbull's pleaser.
I might prefer one with no flaw,
that no one would think to withdraw,
but in my dreams she's a teaser.

spikedog$$$$ $447.0 $$$$#1423723/12/06; 22:50:14

"Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH?"

As there does not appear to be a major "event" on the horizon over the next 3 days - I do not see the Ides of March being a significant psychological turning point for gold. However, Caesar did not think that a major event would take place on the way to the forum either....

Should "we" beware the Ides of March? - that depends on who are "we". Those who've not taken steps to prepare (per BB, Ari, and others) should perhaps beware. Those who have taken steps to prepare have done all that they can, and being wary is a waste of energy.

spikedog$$$$ $547.0 $$$$#1423733/12/06; 22:51:15

Big Whoops!!!! Can I change, If not, I understand.
Goldendome$$$$$$$$$ 552.60 $$$$$$$$#1423743/12/06; 22:56:32

What Are the Ides?

In the ancient Roman calendar, each of the 12 months of the year had an
"ides." In March, May, July and October, the "ides" fell on the 15th day. In
every other month, the "ides" fell on the 13th. The word "ides" was derived
from the Latin "to divide." The "ides" were originally meant to mark the
full moon - but since the solar calendar months and lunar months were of
different lengths, the "ides" quickly lost their original intent and

"Do you see the Ides of March 2006, as a significant turning point
psychologically for gold, and, if so, in what way? (and) Should we BEWARE

As gold investors, some of us will be wary of the Ides of March, but no more so, than
any other day!

Today, we have a dollar backed not by gold, but by guns. Aspiring nations
that increasingly maneuver to acquire scarce resources...and burning
conflicts involving religion, sects, race, and culture in many of the most
strategic world areas.

Anything could happen at ANY time, and eventually--probably will.

We now have two glaring examples this year of large foreign holders of
dollar assets being denied purchase access to large entities in the U.S.
deemed to be: to dear to national security to be trusted in the hands of
foreigners with questionable intent. Will prejudicial denial of these
purchases affect dollar holders and accumulators worldwide? Look for a change.
Some outside the U.S. must be asking: Who's running that country?

Will sunken administration political ratings and "tin ears", cause
them to do anything more foolish than several things they have done already?
We hope not. But with rhetoric now ratcheted up regarding the nuclear problem with
Iran, could this be the signal that within the Administration, the battle is
already being fought for public support of an idea regarding a fix to Iran?
And what then of India? Surely, many of us see hypocrisy in the favorable
treatment proposed for the rogue nuclear development in India. The
proposed nuclear initiative toward India by the U.S. must raise eyebrows in
that region (Pakistan, China, Russia, and Iran).

Oil--like gold--just buy it--and forget about it! This gooey stuff is going
up and could explode—literally(!) at any time. Anyone that hasn't yet wrapped
his mind around the concept of Peak Oil, just isn't giving examination to
the issue. Peak oil coinciding with the increasing rush of demand from
India, China, et al.

Yes, there are many things to go seriously wrong—others here have listed many more.
Any of them could escalate in importance at any time. The Ides of
March? Sure, why not mark a turning point, higher again? But even should
this one pass--as ancient history described--every month has its Ides.

Caradoc$$$$569.10$$$$#1423753/12/06; 23:30:07

The coming/ passing of Ides or Nones of March or any other month has no particular influence on the dollar price of gold. With the 15th being three days from now, I'm expecting gold to be in the process of a massive upsurge, almost certainly taking out $575 on its way to the low $600s within days/ weeks. The rationale for tomorrow and the next few days to see a healthy price surge comes partly from bouncing up from an irrational, multiple stop-loss driven low last Friday; but more important is that the general population of the US is becoming aware of things that sound like old news to those reading this forum.

Each "Joe Sixpack" has a BS detector that is starting to beep, however faintly. This raises the prospect of rousting Joe from his stupor and alerting him that things aren't what he had thought they were, that what he has come to rely on isn't reliable, that maybe he should start paying attention to what his five senses are telling him rather than absorbing what comes out of Washington D.C. even if it is touted by the talking heads of mass media.

Various Joes were awoken/ will be awoken by various contradictions:
* For some, it was when "We're poised to help after the storm hits" turned into "You know, when things get nasty, you'd better be prepared to take care of yourself for several days or a couple of weeks." (A puzzled Joe mutters "Say what? Take care of myself?")
* For others, it's a year and a half of hearing about inflation of 3% while watching the nearest soda vending machine go from 60 cents to 75 cents to a buck and a quarter. Or paying for gasoline with 50s rather than 20s.
* For those who think about larger sums, it might be failing to be reassured by another 12 months going by with -- Hooray! Hooray! -- the Dow hanging on to the 11,000 level while the price of plywood, copper plunbing, and romex wiring doubles.
* I'm sure there are some sports fans out there who first noticed the beeping when the news that Pat Tillman had died a hero's death in combat with the enemy turned into a briefly worded admission that he had been killed by "friendly fire." Others are now being awakened by word that a criminal investigation is now looking into the circumstances of the athlete-soldier's death.
* Whether Joe is a businessman who knows he dare not be late in sending IRS his employees' withheld taxes or a civil servant who chose the perceived security of a government pension rather than chasing the highest possible salary, the fact is that the same feds who didn't like Enron's approach to acounting are now tapping the Civil Service Retirement System's pension fund to pay for current operating expenses. The beeping grows louder....

Whatever the trigger event for each particular Joe, gold at $1,000 won't need to wait for 80% of the Joes to realize that government tells lies as automatically as fish swim. All it will take is for 15 or 20% of the Joes to be suspicious when they read an article addressing the subject of "What was this statistic called M3 that the government used to report?" At that point, 5 or 10% of the Joes start asking each other "Why would they want us to not know how many dollars there are?" The mere asking of that question will be an historic tipping point in dollar confidence because (even though he may spend too much time watching American Idol) Joe has a fast internet connection and he knows how to use Google. The next day, 2 to 5% of the Joes will be asking "Did you know that the Federal Reserve is a private corporation and isn't really part of the US government?" and answering "Yeah, and did you know that the government could be printing its own dollars for the cost of paper and ink and we wouldn't have to pay interest on dollars from the Federal Reserve?" On their way home from work that day, various Joes around the country will plan to stop by the local coin shop and try to buy a few ounces of silver and maybe a half ounce or an ounce of gold.

Since Joe's confidence in government pronouncements in general and financial pronouncements in particular has already started to wane, a parabolic rise in the price of gold is inevitable. I'm guessing the rise begins now but will be gentle enough between now and the Ides of March that it won't be recognizeable as a parabola until later in the month.


PS: See link for detail on Ides, Nones, and Kalends.

Gandalf the WhiteTICK TOCK TICK TOCK !!!!!!!!!!#1423763/12/06; 23:48:41

LESS than 15 minutes before the ENTRY DEADLINE !



Following are listed the POG CONTEST entries !
(Listed in order of DECREASING values)

$$$$ $750.0 $$$$ Beamer (3/3/06; 16:07:46MT - msg#: 142093)

**** $606.6 **** mdgc (3/9/06; 09:02:14MT - msg#: 142246)

$$$$ $601.0 $$$$ Armageddon (3/7/06; 18:25:32MT - msg#: 142207)

$$$$ $600.0 $$$$ el dorado (3/6/06; 16:58:32MT - msg#: 142174)

$$$$ $599.0 $$$$ contrarian (3/11/06; 01:22:28MT - msg#: 142314)

$$$$ $587.0 $$$$ Sundeck (3/6/06; 21:09:59MT - msg#: 142183)

$$$$ $585.8 $$$$ Waverider (3/4/06; 21:01:58MT - msg#: 142114)

$$$$ $583.4 $$$$ Flatliner (3/3/06; 10:39:39MT - msg#: 142088)

$$$$ $580.1 $$$$ Slowman (3/5/06; 15:33:02MT - msg#: 142138)
$$$$ $580.0 $$$$ mikal (3/12/06; 22:32:29MT - msg#: 142371)

$$$$ $578.9 $$$$ Matthew (3/11/06; 02:50:36MT - msg#: 142315)

$$$$ $577.1 $$$$ Chally (3/5/06; 22:37:54MT - msg#: 142151)

$$$$ $574.5 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (3/5/06; 13:28:05MT - msg#: 142135)
**** $574.4 **** arbyh (3/5/06; 11:43:24MT - msg#: 142133)

$$$$ $572.0 $$$$ Clink! (3/7/06; 06:40:36MT - msg#: 142190)
$$$$ $571.9 $$$$ glockmaster19 (3/7/06; 14:33:19MT - msg#: 142198)

$$$$ $570.0 $$$$ Liberty Head (3/5/06; 14:02:09MT - msg#: 142137)

$$$$ $569.1 $$$$ Caradoc (3/12/06; 23:30:07MT - msg#: 142375)

$$$$ $568.8 $$$$ Beer Man (03/04/06; 12:17:16MT - msg#: 142102)

$$$$ $568.4 $$$$ Freedom (3/5/06; 11:12:11MT - msg#: 142131)

$$$$ $567.6 $$$$ The Knife (3/6/06; 17:14:28MT - msg#: 142175)

$$$$ $566.0 $$$$ compwiz4u (3/12/06; 19:19:03MT - msg#: 142366)

$$$$ $565.0 $$$$ Rocky (3/3/06; 14:30:02MT - msg#: 142091)

$$$$ $564.7 $$$$ Mthirsty1 (3/6/06; 17:55:50MT - msg#: 142179)

$$$ FRN564.0 $$$ Goldilox (3/7/06; 12:45:03MT - msg#: 142193)

$$$$ $563.4 $$$$ goldquest (3/12/06; 19:09:55MT - msg#: 142364)

$$$$ $562.1 $$$$ Rimh (3/11/06; 23:40:11MT - msg#: 142337)

$$$ FRN560.5 $$$ Smeagol (3/4/06; 18:22:20MT - msg#: 142108)

$$$$ $559.8 $$$$ 2023 (3/9/06; 02:13:17MT - msg#: 142241)

**** $558.3 **** Boilermaker (3/9/06; 17:02:04MT - msg#: 142265)

$$$$ $556.6 $$$$ Believer (3/12/06; 19:01:30MT - msg#: 142363)

$$$$ $556.0 $$$$ Wky_Woodsman (3/12/06; 20:48:37MT - msg#: 142369)

$$$$ $555.5 $$$$ Usul (3/10/06; 13:04:58MT - msg#: 142293)

$$$$ $554.7 $$$$ canamami (3/12/06; 17:44:26MT - msg#: 142361)

$$$$ $553.8 $$$$ 24karat (3/11/06; 11:04:59MT - msg#: 142318)

$$$$ $553.4 $$$$ The Hoople (3/12/06; 12:43:27MT - msg#: 142354)

$$$$ $553.1 $$$$ goldenpeace (3/12/06; 10:03:14MT - msg#: 142345)

$$$$ $552.6 $$$$ Goldendome (3/12/06; 22:56:32MT - msg#: 142374)

$$$$ $552.0 $$$$ Noble1 (3/11/06; 16:50:04MT - msg#: 142328)

$$$$ $551.1 $$$$ osa104c (3/9/06; 18:57:24MT - msg#: 142270)

$$$$ $550.0 $$$$ Felix the Cat (3/11/06; 07:13:08MT - msg#: 142316)

$$$$ $549.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (3/4/06; 22:13:41MT - msg#: 142117)

$$$$ $549.0 $$$$ Lance (3/10/06; 12:21:40MT - msg#: 142292)

$$$$ $548.5 $$$$ beowulf + (3/10/06; 07:54:45MT - msg#: 142283)

$$$$ $548.0 $$$$ YGM (3/10/06; 09:27:26MT - msg#: 142285)

$$$$ $547.0 $$$$ spikedog (3/12/06; 22:51:15MT - msg#: 142373)

$$$$ $546.5 $$$$ Topaz (3/4/06; 20:26:10MT - msg#: 142112)

$$$$ $545.6 $$$$ R Powell (3/12/06; 08:10:14MT - msg#: 142343)

$$$$ $545.2 $$$$ Tate (3/12/06; 15:29:09MT - msg#: 142358)

$$$$ $544.8 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (3/11/06; 20:08:11MT - msg#: 142331)

$$$$ $544.4 $$$$ Black Blade (3/12/06; 18:36:09MT - msg#: 142362)

$$$$ $543.7 $$$$ 24Wortel (3/12/06; 11:21:03MT - msg#: 142350)

$$$$ $543.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (3/9/06; 15:50:37MT - msg#: 142260)

$$$$ $542.3 $$$$ Prius (3/12/06; 13:16:20MT - msg#: 142355)

$$$$ $542.0 $$$$ slingshot (3/12/06; 08:07:56MT - msg#: 142342)

$$$$ $540.0 $$$$ Camel (3/10/06; 17:45:59MT - msg#: 142305)

$$$$ $539.9 $$$$ guns'n'butter (3/10/06; 22:13:53MT - msg#: 142308)

$$$$ $539.0 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (3/12/06; 11:07:39MT - msg#: 142349)

$$$$ $538.2 $$$$ Shermag (3/11/06; 11:15:34MT - msg#: 142320)

$$$$ $537.3 $$$$ balzac (3/10/06; 10:10:52MT - msg#: 142287)

$$$$ $535.7 $$$$ Toolie (3/10/06; 20:59:19MT - msg#: 142307)

$$$$ $534.0 $$$$ Buongiorno! (3/12/06; 16:19:16MT - msg#: 142359)

$$$$ $533.0 $$$$ Nomad (3/10/06; 19:17:12MT - msg#: 142306)

$$$$ $530.0 $$$$ tejbear (3/8/06; 04:54:08MT - msg#: 142212)

$$$$ $520.0 $$$$ DryWasher (3/11/06; 09:34:28MT - msg#: 142317)

$$$$ $518.9 $$$$ 7nomads (3/11/06; 22:33:59MT - msg#: 142333)

$$$$ $515.0 $$$$ Goldenera (3/12/06; 10:22:00MT - msg#: 142346)

NOW we all await the April '06 COMEX contract (GCJ06)SETTLEMENT price on Wednesday 3/15/06 !

gold_silver_buggold and silver price#1423783/13/06; 02:09:36

Is silver going to outperform gold this year also???
Any thoughts?

Golden LionheartGenuine and not so genuine gold coins.#1423793/13/06; 05:49:12

Years ago I used to live in Jeddah in Saudi Arabia and also in Damascus in Syria. There in the Gold Souks English Gold Sovereigns were plentiful. I questioned the sellers and they told me that they were produced quite recently in Italy and that the amount of gold in them was very slightly higher than in the original coins.
I got myself a stash of these coins. I wonder if Sir MK or someone from USA Gold would like to comment on this. I have no reason to believe that what they told me was n true.

On the subject of Saudi Arabia the currency used by the desert people was the Austrian Marie Theresa Crown a beautiful silver coin. All dated I think, from memory, about 1780, and probably once again of recent production.

Anyway old or not the contained gold and silver is the real thing.

mikal@Golden Lionheart#1423803/13/06; 07:19:21

Thank you for the info. about Saudi Arabia!
The Marie Theresa Thaler(Crown) was produced by Austria, at least up until recently dated "about 1780". These are genuine "restrikes" and of silver.
The Gr. Britain sovereigns were indeed counterfeited, as I had also bought some in my early years of collecting. I reject them now because I recognize them by their color and especially the inferior quality(luster and strike). Italy may have been in a position to make them following the destruction of WW2.

White RoseMore on counterfeiting#1423813/13/06; 07:49:22

I remember reading articles that Lebanon has become a center for counterfeiting rare gold coins. The counterfeits are made of gold. But it does explain why there are so many high quality gold coins on the market in the last 25 years. Let the buyer beware.

Personally, I buy coins with a very small premium over spot.

I also have a tester, which makes sure that Krugerrands and Eagles have the correct weight and size.

TownCrierGold -- $5 Liberties#1423823/13/06; 09:14:25

Patience, they say, is a virture. But sometimes it'll take you only just so far.

Blink, and an opportunity has passed you by. Buy? Bye-bye!


MKGolden Lionheart, White Rose#1423833/13/06; 09:15:13

Many years ago when the British Sovereign carried a substantial premium over the gold price, they were counterfeited. To my knowledge, they are no longer counterfeited.

We buy from reputable sources who have been importing gold coins for decades. They know what they are doing. Even so, we occasionally send a few tubes to one of the top counterfeiting experts in the United States for a spot check to make sure nothing slips through the system. (An old friend, he is a principle at one of the grading services, teaches the counterfeiting seminars for the American Numismatic Association and has many years experience in the field.) Thus far, we have not turned up any counterfeits. Over our many years in the pre-1933 gold coin field, we have not had a single coin returned to us as a counterfeit, and to our knowledge, never sold one though we have processed thousands of these coins.

Counterfeiting almost always occurs in coins with a high premium over the gold value -- like scarce $20 gold pieces, $10 gold pieces, etc. and rarely in coins that sell relatively close to bullion value. The reason for that is that most simple test of real gold is specific gravity -- an easy and inexpensive test which counterfeiters know they will have to pass in order to pass off a counterfeit. The British sovereigns you mentioned were counterfeited as you say with more gold than they should have in them in order to pass the specific gravity test -- the first line of defense for the gold industry. If they can't get through the first line of defense, counterfeiting becomes an unprofitable venture, thus almost all counterfeits, have the proper metal content.

On the British sovereign, by the way, you can't go by color, lustre alone. Coins minted in Perth or South Africa have a different look than those minted in Great Britain.

The best course of action for any investor is to buy his or her gold from reputable sources who have substantial experience -- and that applies whether the interest is in bullion coins, pre-1933 coins, or numismatics. If nothing else, the repurtable firm will stand behind their placements if the client is uncomfortable. We have a exchange policy with no questions asked on pre-1933 European gold coins like the British sovereign. Thus far we have not had a single coin returned as a suspected counterfeit. As a matter of fact, we rarely have coins returned to us for any reason.

Hope this clears up some of questions. Counterfeiting is not as big a problem as some pose it.

TownCrierGold May Rise From 3-Month Low on Investor Demand, Survey Says#1423843/13/06; 09:26:15

March 13 (Bloomberg) --

...``It is a very good time to buy,'' said George Ireland, chief investment officer of Boston-based Geologic Resource Partners, a $300 million venture capital and hedge fund. ``I don't believe gold is going to $1,000, but I would not be surprised to see $650 this year. I buy it as an alternative to investing in dollar-based securities.''

Gold for April delivery fell $26.70 an ounce last week, a three-month low. The drop surprised the majority of analysts surveyed Feb. 23 and Feb. 24, who predicted a gain. Bloomberg's weekly survey has forecast the direction of prices accurately in 58 of 98 weeks, or 59 percent of the time.

Gold's 18 percent gain last year outperformed the 3 percent rise in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index of stocks and a 2 percent return on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data.

The metal is up 4.3 percent since the end of December, compared with 2.7 percent for the S&P. The Merrill index shows holders of 10-year Treasury notes have lost about 2.1 percent.

``We've had such price appreciations, that this is a normal correction,'' said Mike Armbruster, a broker and analyst at Altavest Worldwide Trading Inc. in Mission Viejo, California. ``We're getting pretty close to some very strong support for gold. This is an area where there's an opportunity to get long.''

Gold gained 9.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005 as the U.S. economy expanded 1.6 percent. The economy will likely grow 4.7 percent this quarter...

Trade Deficit

The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $68.5 billion in January.

``$540 isn't a bad price considering the upside potential,'' said Phil Bryant, a travel agent in Denver, Colorado. Bryant said he considered gold as an alternative to stocks when it traded at $450. After leaving his investments in a money market for the past 12 months, he's looking to put 50 percent in gold, euros and international stocks.

``If it weren't for the huge trade deficit, I wouldn't be so concerned,'' said Bryant, 52. ``I'm not paranoid, but I just want to have a hedge in case things get worse with the economy. It's going to take a lot more for the deficit to get ironed out than a few good economic reports.''

^---(from url)---^

Phil, you're a giant among men. Amen.


TownCrierAnalysts Say Gold Correction May Be Nearing End#1423853/13/06; 10:09:52

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Gold may be ready for another upside tilt after last week suffering its biggest weekly drop in almost three months, some analysts and traders said Monday.

Bullion struck a 25-year high $575 an ounce early February driven by oil-related inflationary concerns, Mideast geopolitical tensions and general investment demand for commodities. But easing oil and a U.S. dollar buoyed by anticipated interest rate hikes saw the metal sink to a two-month low of $534 Friday.

A bounce to $545 in Asian trading Monday was credited to technical buying, some physical demand and fresh investor interest after last week's selloff and as the dollar ran out of steam against some currencies.

While participants remain cautious, some say Monday's performance may be a sign the metal's month-long correction is drawing to end.

Craig Ferguson, senior currency strategist at Australia's ANZ Investment Bank, in a report Monday said while gold could dip back below $535 support again, the next big move is likely to be upwards, back above $575, toward $590-$600/oz.

^---(from url)---^

Are they called 'dips' because that's what we feel like after we fail to recognize them or else neglect buying them?


TownCrierBrown to support Islamic banking#1423863/13/06; 10:29:16

The British chancellor is expected to unveil plans shortly to support Islamic banking services in the UK, reports suggest.

According to the Sunday Times, Gordon Brown wants to create "the most Islam-friendly economy in the western world" by removing many of the barriers to full participation in the country's banking system experienced by many British Muslims.

The newspaper claims that the chancellor has told Muslim leaders that he wants to develop a "level playing field" for financial services products, enabling those that are compliant with Islamic Sharia law to be provided more widely and establishing London as a western hub of Muslim banking.

Under Sharia law, financial products must not charge or earn any interest and must be provided in a completely different way to western products.

The Islamic banking sector is one of the fastest growing in the world.

A senior Treasury official said: "Making the UK and London a centre for Islamic finance means putting in place the tax and legislative framework that is supportive of Islamic products..."

Many of the UK's leading banks have unveiled Sharia compliant products and are keen to expand their Islamic banking services in order to meet growing demand.

^---(from url)---^

When your savings account can't earn interest to somewhat mitigate inflation's erosion of your money's purchasing power, you suddenly develop a keen understanding of the value of actual (tangible) property and hence gain further insights into the universal importance of tangible gold to savers of all stripes throughout the world.


GoldiloxIslamic Banking in Britain#1423873/13/06; 10:48:18

I would assume that instead of charging "interest", they just up the bankster's "fees".

Already done by cut-rate mortgage lenders in the US.

But, I could be wrong.

mikal@TC- Sharia always has been very gold friendly#1423883/13/06; 11:53:06

Re: Sharia system - That's great news, especially when TPTB must counter every good story with 10 or more that give
the opposite impression. "DUCK DOWN, INCOMING!"
And without recalling the many particulars, given it's past and growing influence and usage, Sharia should likely go far beyond Britain.

geWhat Really Happened to the Shah of Iran by Engdahl#1423893/13/06; 13:02:17

"Oh what a tangled web we weave, When first we practice to deceive"
GoldiloxPotentates "R" Us#1423903/13/06; 13:58:24

@ ge,

Not surprising, as every coup in the world first gets military and financial support from the Men in Black under the auspices of "destabilization".

They can't have the resource nations dictating terms to the paper manipulators, or their entire bankster monopoly collapses. The first thing they did when the Saudis and Iranians started started shipping oil for dollars is get them locked into "external investments" in leiu of major infrastructure and industrial improvements.

Castro's revolution was bankrolled by the US, as was that of Ho Chi Minh, and Pinochet. Al Qaida was a CIA invented terrorist arm to disrupt the Soviets in Afghanistan, while Ollie and the boyz were trading guns for street drugs in Iran and Nicaragua. At the same time, they were playing Noriega's tune to keep the SA pipelines open.

Again, I suggest the "Money Masters" video posted on 2/17 to all who still believe that nationalism plays any real part in market and political instabilities. Gold is "kept in the closet" until such crises as 1933, and perhaps 1980, when they must address it's power directly.

GoldiloxGold Demand Rises 13% in Saudi Arabia#1423913/13/06; 14:31:58§ion=0&article=79141&d=13&m=3&y=2006


JEDDAH, 13 March 2006 — Gold demand increased by 13 percent in Saudi Arabia, while it rose just five percent worldwide in 2005.

In Saudi Arabia, which represents a major market in the region, gold jewelry demand rose by 12 percent during the year compared to 2004, and by 13 percent in terms of both gold jewelry and retail investment sectors, according to the annual review of the regional office of World Gold Council (WGC) in Dubai.

This demand increase is due to the Kingdom's strong economy and the high spend capability. Also, it is expected that the demand will continue to grow similarly in 2006, especially in the context of the biggest budget ever announced by the Kingdom in addition to the increase of marketing activities by large scale gold jewelry manufactures and the WGC across the region.

The increase in gold demand prevailed in the Kingdom's neighboring Gulf countries including Turkey and Egypt. In the UAE, the total percentage of gold demand in 2005 remained positive to reach eight percent in spite of the small decrease in sales during the Q4 of the same year.


It seems that personal demand for precious is growing wordwide, while supply, as noted by other posters is still dwindling.

Golden LionheartCounterfeit gold coins#1423923/13/06; 14:53:31

I should have mentioned that this happened in Jeddah in the mid 1970's and in Damascus in the early 1980's. My interest in gold dates back to 1960!!
USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1423933/13/06; 16:32:42">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

MONDAY Market Excerpts

March 13 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed Monday with a gain of more than $6 an ounce, recouping part of last week's losses of nearly 5%, as some weakness in the U.S. dollar and ongoing tension over Iran's nuclear-refining program helped renew investment demand for the precious metal.

"The marginally weaker dollar, coupled with the relentless violence in Iraq and the 'in-your-face' defiance emanating from Iran ... are keeping gold bugs on the alert," said Kitco's Jon Nadler, an investment products analyst. Overall, the price action in metals reflects "a 'catching our breath' attitude from the trading pits," he said.

The COMEX April futures contract rose $6.20 to close at $547.50, marking its highest session-ending level since last Tuesday. The contract closed Friday at its lowest level in more than two months, down 4.7%, or $26.70, for the week.

Prices are "drifting" between support that Nadler pegged at $530 to $540 and resistance around $550 to $552 an ounce. "We have to get some momentum behind it [or] else we sink lower again," he said. For the moment, the $535-to-$550 range "appears to present the path of least resistance," he said.

At the same time, "this period will still be looked at, in retrospect, as one of the opportune moments to have accumulated some gold for the nebulous future," Nadler said.

The dollar's recent strength "has certainly been one of the contributing factors in gold's six-week decline," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities. However, Doelling sees the dollar as having reached "an extremely overbought condition," raising prospects for what he said could be "a significant decline ... just the tonic for what currently ails the precious-metals markets."

With no major economic reports on tap to start the week, currency traders are looking ahead to market-moving releases later this week, including readings on monthly foreign capital flows, the consumer price index and housing starts.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

Gandalf the White"KING OF THE HILL" report !#1423943/13/06; 16:48:57

Preliminary data from the Hobbit communication system to me in the depths of Morador, indicate that TODAY, the COMEX April contract price RANGE was between $542.5 and $547.7 with the SETTLEMENT of $547.3 for and Change of +$5.7

THEREFORE, (if this is indeed correct) the following entries were, at one time today, atop the Hill,

$$$$ $547.0 $$$$ spikedog (3/12/06; 22:51:15MT - msg#: 142373)

$$$$ $546.5 $$$$ Topaz (3/4/06; 20:26:10MT - msg#: 142112)

$$$$ $545.6 $$$$ R Powell (3/12/06; 08:10:14MT - msg#: 142343)

$$$$ $545.2 $$$$ Tate (3/12/06; 15:29:09MT - msg#: 142358)

$$$$ $544.8 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (3/11/06; 20:08:11MT - msg#: 142331)

$$$$ $544.4 $$$$ Black Blade (3/12/06; 18:36:09MT - msg#: 142362)

$$$$ $543.7 $$$$ 24Wortel (3/12/06; 11:21:03MT - msg#: 142350)

$$$$ $543.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (3/9/06; 15:50:37MT - msg#: 142260)

and the "KING OF THE HILL" is:

Sir Spikedog !


Gandalf the Whiteoops !#1423953/13/06; 16:53:46

Looks as if interuptions in communications are causing minor data errors on the Hobbit system, BUT ---

Sir Spikedog --- IS STILL THE "KING of the HILL" !!!!

The Invisible HandIranian Oil Bourse to start during New Year Holidays?#1423963/13/06; 16:58:53

The IOB would open on Monday March 20.
Here's an article which argues that it's official that Iran's oil industry is self-sufficient.
The text above the article says that Monday March 20 is part of the New Year Holiday.
Happy Nowrouz!
During the Iranian New Year Holidays (Nowrouz), March 20 to 03 April 2006, IranMania Independent News will be running a limited news service. Only major news stories will be covered. From all the News Team we wish you a happy new year.
May we have a golden Nowrouz!

Gandalf the WhiteSir TIH --- The LINK is "OFFICIAL" and states that "The Bourse" ----#1423973/13/06; 17:36:04

The country, which also holds the world?s second largest gas reserves after Russia, has planned to put an end to the greenback monopoly on oil trades by expediting efforts to establish an oil bourse by April.

Once the much-publicized oil bourse is established, the long-sought objective of replacing the US dollar with the euro in OPEC transactions will come one major step closer to reality.

The oil bourse, which will be established as envisaged in the Fourth Five-Year Plan (2005-2010), has received support from both the Parliament and the government in Iran. It will enable oil-rich Iran to regulate prices at home without having to follow other countries? dollar-pegged trading system.
Do you think that something is "LOST IN TREANSLATION" ?
(afterall these are EXPERTS with over 97 years of oil business experience)

Gandalf the WhiteBUT -- The --- "KING(S) of the HILL" -- may be two persons ---#1423983/13/06; 17:42:29

$$$$ $548.0 $$$$ YGM (3/10/06; 09:27:26MT - msg#: 142285)

as that is Sir Yukon Gold Miner "hugging" Sir Spikedog.

spikedogTop o' the Hill#1423993/13/06; 17:56:31

Tis an awe inspiring view from up here. Even if it only be for a fleeting moment, thank you for the opportunity to take in the sights.
TownCrierHEADLINE: Arab central banks move assets out of dollar#1424003/13/06; 18:03:46

14 March 2006 -- Middle Eastern anger over the decision by the US to block a Dubai company from buying five of its ports hit the dollar yesterday as a number of central banks said they were considering switching reserves into euros.

The United Arab Emirates, which includes Dubai, said it was looking to move one-tenth of its dollar reserves into euros, while the governor of the Saudi Arabian central bank condemned the US move as "discrimination".

Separately, Syria responded to US sanctions against two of its banks by confirming plans to use euros instead of dollars for its external transactions.

...analysts warned other central banks might follow suit.

Last week the US caused dismay after political opposition to the takeover of P&O by Dubai Ports World forced DPW to agree to transfer P&O's US port management business to a "US entity" .

..."Investors are going to take this into consideration [and] will look at investment opportunities through new binoculars."

..."Is it okay for US companies to buy everywhere but it is not okay for other companies to buy the US?"

..."The issue is whether we will see similar attitudes taken by other Middle Eastern banks. It is a question of momentum."

^---(from url)---^

Following hot on the heels of the official U.S. blockade of the Chinese bid on Unocal, as I said early on when this new round of resistance was raised, this indeed was the feared economic fall-out of a subsequent blockade of the Dubai bid on the ports -- the pebbles that start the avalanche in a flight from dollars as a reserve asset.

As the dollar's fate is not in your hands, it behooves you to preserve your personal purchasing power with a healthy diversification into gold.

Waste no more time in your decision-making. Evaluate your fincancial position this evening and call USAGOLD-Centennial this week for consultation and best prices on gold coins and bullion to diversify your portfolio.


PRITCHORe --Whether We Will See An Iranian Oil Bourse - - - Any Time Soon ?#14240103/13/06; 18:16:11

Recently I read an article entitled "Calculating the Risk of War in Iran" --comprehensive enough but not mentioning AT ALL the possibility of an Iranian Oil Bourse.

I emailed the Author (William Engdahl, a German historian)
who also wrote "A Century Of War : Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order" --and he kindly replied with his explanation that he didn't see it happening at all & gave abbreviated reasons.

Just a few days later he published his reasons in full in an article entitled "Iran's Oil Bourse a Casus Belli?"
I recommend both articles --not too long & worth the read.
Cut & Paste:

GoldiloxEngdahl#1424023/13/06; 18:28:39


Nice of you to waken him from his slumber! Hope you were gentle.

Thoreauly@ Pritcho & Goldilox#1424033/13/06; 19:14:55

But what of this statement?

"The role of the dollar as reserve currency for world trade and central banks is fundamentally a political one."

In other words, how long can politics trump economics? How long can fantasy trump reality?

This is not a rhetorical question. I ask in all seriousness.

GoldiloxPolitics vs. Economics#1424043/13/06; 20:17:54

@ Thoreauly,

As a response, let me quote from Marc Widdowson's book, "The Coming Dark Age", where he describes the ebb and flow of many civilizations past. Although I don;t agree with all of his assertions, I believe he has done a great job of fitting "conspicuous consumption" into the "ebb side" of the equation. I have included the URL to download the book for more investigation, as well.

"Successful societies live well. They are wealthy and they develop a taste for luxury. Ordinary people aspire to the standard of living that their betters have customarily enjoyed. The Admonitions of Ipuwer observe that ‘paupers now possess fine things’, while ‘she who had no box, now has a coffer’ and ‘he that slept on a board, now has a bed’. The rich citizens of classical Athens became increasingly given to conspicuous consumption, and built themselves far more splendid houses than those with which their ancestors had been content. In the first century AD, Seneca commented wryly on the rather dingy and basic bathroom of a house that once belonged to Scipio, the destroyer of Carthage some 200 years before. ‘Who is there who could bear to have a bath in such surroundings nowadays?’, he asked. ‘We think ourselves poorly off if the walls are not ablaze with large and costly circular mirrors, if our Alexandrian marbles are not decorated with panels of Numidian marble’ and if the water does not pour ‘from silver taps’, all of which excesses, Seneca said, are ‘just for the sake of spending money’.

Of course, there is nothing wrong with a more comfortable lifestyle in itself. The trouble is that a society may indulge itself beyond what it can afford. Xerxes is said to have ruined the Persian empire by indulging in a welter of extravagance that was more than his coffers could bear. In China at the beginning of the seventeenth century, aristocrats were creating great private domains that drove peasants away from the land. They were seemingly oblivious to the fact that all their wealth ultimately rested on the land's productive value, and that only industrious peasants could realise it.

People in rich nations develop a growing distaste for hard labour. They wish to enjoy their wealth rather than continue the hard struggle that led to its accumulation. The Admonitions of Ipuwer complain about the fact that craftspeople no longer cared to toil. The Romans once derided the Greeks for their softness, yet they themselves became increasingly pampered by a state that provided all sorts of amenities. Late Rome was equipped with eleven public baths through the generosity of successive emperors. These not only provided for luxurious bathing at various temperatures but also served as elaborate leisure centres, in which many people, belonging to a wide spectrum of social and economic classes, spent a substantial part of each day. The desire for luxury was rising, but the inclination to work for it was lagging behind. A book published in 1900 similarly noted how lazy British workers had become in comparison to their German and American counterparts. They were eager to consume but reluctant to work and resistant to innovation.

This kind of runaway growth in expenditure, undermined by more sluggish growth in income, played a part in the decline of ancient Etruria. There was a shift in emphasis from production to consumption, i.e. to a society with more consumers and fewer producers. The Etruscan taste for fine things seems to have outrun the purchasing power of the people's earnings and accumulated wealth. That is to say, the Etruscan taste for consumption outran the Etruscan taste for the effort and self-discipline needed to supply it.

The later Roman armies even gave up wearing armour on the ground that it was too heavy. The Romans’ upbringing no longer prepared them for strenuous effort. Their authority as well as their commerce was at risk. For a while, they could live in idleness on the taxes that they collected from their provinces. However, the provinces eventually realised that the all-conquering Romans had become soft and ineffectual, and they withdrew their support. The Romans had come to rely on the credit and reputation that had been built up by their forebears. That credit and reputation eventually ran out.

Chapter 9, "The Camel's Back" from "The Coming Dark Age"

GoldiloxReserve Status#1424053/13/06; 20:33:14

@ Thoreauly,

Now that I read it again, it is a tangential answer, but reserve status only lasts as long as the players in the game agree to the "currency" - a lot like poker chips.

If the smaller players start to doubt the "full faith and credit" of the game's bank, it changes things, and perhaps not all that slowly.

My understanding of Another's tale of oil and gold is that those changes were being effected during the 70's oil crises and 1980 gold rush.

GoldiloxTaxation#1424063/13/06; 20:38:59

"The Coming Dark Age"

Here's a couple more paragraphs on the ill effects of overtaxation, seemingly the same issue sending US corporations offshore.

"Taxation implies both costs and benefits. As time goes on, though, the costs become increasingly likely to outweigh the benefits. The thirst for revenues is more consistent than the provision of good governance. During the eighteenth century, the French authorities imposed a huge tax burden on the wealthy port of La Rochelle, but neglected to defend it with the military forces that these taxes funded. In consequence, La Rochelle's merchant shipping suffered at the hands of the British navy, and its wealth-producing potential was eventually destroyed. Spain espoused numerous counterproductive policies that created a straitjacket for Spanish entrepreneurs. Internal customs barriers discouraged trade, inhibited capital accumulation and generally kept industry in a backward state. In this way, the government short-sightedly attacked the basis of its own prosperity.

Excessive taxation was certainly an important factor in the decline of Rome. In the later stages of the empire, the middle classes were being destroyed by tax demands that they could not sustain. The curiales, or municipal officers, suffered enormously from their hereditary position as tax collectors. They were obliged to produce a certain fixed amount of revenue from the areas that were assigned to them, although generally they found great difficulty in meeting the demands. In most cases, they could only escape by taking flight.

The growth of taxation had become self-sustaining, as the bureaucracy consumed vast amounts just on maintaining itself. The vast size and deteriorating quality of the civil service in the late Roman empire was notorious. It had become a self-perpetuating body in which posts were hereditary. There were many concerted attempts to rein in this unmanageable officialdom but the very repetitiousness of such measures shows that they must have been almost wholly ineffective. Frauds and extortion weighed so heavily on taxpayers that broad areas which had once been productive were taken out of cultivation. It simply became no longer worthwhile to raise crops because too much was taken away by the state, whether legitimately or corruptly. By the fifth century, the peasants were paying one third of their gross product in taxes (comparable to contemporary rates). In north Africa, the burden was felt so severely that many cultivators simply gave up and fled.

GoldiloxGOLDMAN ZEROS JAPAN#1424073/13/06; 21:31:48


A news item was quietly reported – in Japan of all places - back on March 3, 2006 which I strongly feel is of the utmost importance. This piece involved a change in the way things are reported on the Tokyo Commodities Exchange [TOCOM]. The changes are to take effect as of April 1, 2006 – no fooling.

Right from the Reuters News release,

'TOKYO, March 3 (Reuters) - The Tokyo Commodity Exchange hopes to attract more foreigners and a wider range of investors, including institutions, with plans to bolster players' anonymity and list new products, a senior exchange official said on Friday. TOCOM, Japan's top commodity exchange, aims to discontinue its practice of disclosing daily outstanding positions for each member starting early in the next business year, which begins in April.'

This is important and relevant because – like the Fed's discontinuance of M3 Money Supply Reporting – it signifies the removal of another measure of transparency that promotes/ensures accountability on the part of all players in the financial system.

The soon to take effect changes on the TOCOM will bring that exchange more in line with the opacity that has long been exhibited by New York's COMEX [affectionately known and referred to by insiders and critics as the CRIMEX] – where open interest data are clumsily aggregated and reported to the public close to one week in arrears via the COT Report.

It says here, that the reason being offered [that of anonymity and to attract business] is as credible as the Fed's claim that ceasing M3 Money Supply reporting later this month was designed to "save money." The reality, I'm afraid, is making the actions of TOCOM participants "stealthy" more likely has its roots in the factual account outlined below:

Appearances vs. Reality

The activities of Goldman Sachs "shorting gold" on TOCOM was first brought to my attention by Adrian Douglas via Bill Murphy's daily Midas commentary at On Jan. 10, 2006 Adrian Douglas reported,

Today Jan 10 Goldman Sachs has gone more short on TOCOM. They have not changed their long position it is still at 3611 as it was on Jan 5. The Short position has increased to 20072. Their short position has increased about 6000 contracts in 5 days.

This is a big losing position with the large rise in gold from $489 on Dec 21 when they first started loading up on these contracts.

From this, we can surmise that Goldman's gold "short position" stood at about 14,000 contracts on Jan. 5, 2006 when the price of gold stood at 526.00. Since that date, Goldman's "long position" has ranged from the number above to 6,016 as of Feb. 23, 2006.

Goldman's "shorting" of gold on the Tokyo Commodities Exchange [TOCOM] – described above – appears to be at odds with this Bloomberg article that cites a Goldman Report dated Dec. 19, 2005 – where gold was named a top trading pick:

You have to love this article that just hit the wire at Bloomberg.

Cartel Head Honcho Goldman Sachs is cited….

QUOTE: Bullion is a "top trading pick'' for 2006, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the third-biggest securities company, said in a Dec. 19 report, citing concern over inflation, currency values and the U.S. trade deficit. END

Oh really! Goldman Sachs is bullish on gold? At the end of the article they list the predictions of all the analysts for the gold price for 2006. Goldman Sachs prediction is….wait for it….$515! That really is a bullish call, a real top trading recommendation considering we closed at $530.3 on the first trading day of the year.

Barclays comes in with a call of $465. What a bunch of clowns! They probably have the right digits but not arranged in the right order! Even JP Morgan has predicted $558 and that must have brought tears to their eyes to go to press with that!


It looks like market opacity is all the rage! "

Trust us, you don't need to worry your silly head with "numbers. Besides, we just can't phony them up to be believeable anymore!"

I guess that's what we get for openly complaining that the CPI-PPI are complete fabrications.

GoldendomePossibly a housekeeping matter.#14240803/13/06; 21:40:52

I just stopped in to the Closing Goldcoin Prices window here at Centenial. The closing spot price of gold for today shows $556.20. Curious--that seems about $10 high. Is the price of all the bullion coins shown then priced off of that figure?

We needs to know, in case we grab the hotline to place our orders. Or, is this just a test of our collective awarenesses?

Ten BearsBob Chapman#1424093/13/06; 22:24:22

Worth a look. imho.
TownCrierGoldendome,#1424103/14/06; 00:44:41

Good eye. Looks to me like a simple typo must've crept in during someone's final push to flip off the lights and head out the door at the end of a busy day. Thanks for the alert. I've made the appropriate amendment to the page; the end-of-day reference pricing should now appear to be more closely in whack with what you'd have expected to see there.


TownCrier'Protectionist' pebbles lead to expanding economic ripples -- more on yesterday's report#1424113/14/06; 01:20:52

HEADLINE: UAE turns back on dollar in foreign reserves shake-up

(14/03/2006) --

..."This policy initiative has nothing to do with the controversy over DP World's bid for P&O operations in the US," said Sultan bin Nasser Al Suwaidi, the governor of UAE's central bank. In the same breath, however, he denounced the move by the US Congress to block the Dubai group from taking control of six American ports on security grounds, warning it would drive capital away.

The UAE has been a close ally of Washington in the fight against terrorism, so the shrill tone on Capitol Hill - bordering on anti-Arab hysteria - has been deeply wounding. There are fears it could lead to a withdrawal of petrodollar funds from the US, much like the Saudi-driven capital flight after the terrorist attacks of 9/11.

"Dubai's difficulties are going to cause Arab countries to invest less in the United States," said Mohab Kamel, a trader at Kara Energy in Geneva. "The kick in the teeth by Washington is not reassuring for Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, which have a more fundamentalist attitude," he said.

The next move could be a decision by Emirates Airlines - the region's top carrier - to opt for Europe's Airbus A350 in a $7.5bn order for passenger jets expected next month instead of Boeing's 787 Dreamliner.

The IMF forecasts that the Gulf region will rack up a current account surplus of $275bn in 2006, giving it huge clout in the global capital markets.

By some estimates, the recycling of petrodollars has eclipsed the Asian central banks as the chief source of foreign financing for the US deficit, now over 7pc of GDP.

David Lubin, an economist at HSBC and author of a report on Gulf petrodollars, said Washington could prove to be the victim of its recourse to "asset protectionism".

"It has been a particularly unpleasant incident and it may well have longer-term consequences since the US relies on foreign inflows to fund its current account deficit. This sort of move will make it even more dependent on easily-reversible portfolio flows," he said.

...Gulf investors are not [currently] dumping dollars, [but] ...the moment they do, however, the long-awaited slide in the US dollar could start with a vengeance.

^---(from url)---^

As a primary RESERVE alternative the world must (does/will) seriously embrace gold because the euroarea does not want to directly inherit the familiar non-competitive international trade woes of the "strong dollar" being transferred into a "strong euro" with all the attendant headaches. Nor would the central banks of the world want to repeat mistakes of the past, idolizing another's liabilities on such a vast scale that the economic playing field remains grossly asymmetric with exhorbitant financing privileges bestowed on one quarter over all others.


GoldiloxRising Protectionism#1424123/14/06; 05:53:50

Great post, TC.

It highlights the general attitude of introversion that is surfacing globally.

I'm not as sure as you are about the CBs not wanting to repeat mistakes. It's certainly logical, but they seem to be "painted in a corner once again" as outlined in the Chapman article.

GoldiloxMore on "protectionism"#1424133/14/06; 06:03:53

First the Unocal deal, and now the Dubai Port deal. How long until the rest of the world realizes that they can't spend the dollars they have amassed.

They seem to be limited to re-investing them in US Treasuries to hold up the Wall St house of cards and purchases of what few global products the US still provides (Boeing, GE, John Deere), forcing them to use their $ horde anti-competitively.

As more and more foreign investors are thwarted in their attempt to repatriate US $, they will begin to sour on accumulation from the bitter taste left in their mouths.

This is getting ugly - and rather quickly!

BoilermakerSurprise! Goldman hits record#1424143/14/06; 07:48:02

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported Wall Street's highest-ever quarterly profit and revenue, powered by record trading and money-management fees.

Net income in the fiscal first quarter soared 64 percent to $2.48 billion, or $5.08 a share, Goldman said in a statement today. That's more than the New York-based firm earned in all of fiscal 2002 and exceeds by more than 60 percent the highest analyst estimate.

Goldman said strong customer demand for stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies and derivatives and ``favorable conditions'' for bets with its own capital fueled a 53 percent jump in trading revenue. Money management fees doubled as assets swelled to $571 billion, the most on Wall Street.

``It all went right, that's all you can say with a number like this,'' said Anton Schutz, who helps manage $275 million at Mendon Capital Advisors Corp., including call options on Goldman shares. ``I don't think they can sustain this.''

It's good to be a branch of the Federal Reserve and US Treasury, takes the guesswork out of "investing".

BoilermakerProtectionism Poker#1424153/14/06; 08:03:18

If Dubai (or any holder of vast quantities of FRN's) really wants to play high stakes poker with Washington they should make a tender offer for Barrick.
GoldiloxGold Nanorods#1424163/14/06; 08:25:56


Newswise — Researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology and the University of California, San Francisco, have found an even more effective and safer way to detect and kill cancer cells. By changing the shapes of gold nanospheres into cylindrical gold nanorods, they can detect malignant tumors hidden deeper under the skin, like breast cancer, and selectively destroy them with lasers only half as powerful as before – without harming the healthy cells. The method, which allows for a safer, deeper penetrating noninvasive cancer treatment, has just appeared in the Journal of the American Chemical Society, volume 128.

Last year, the father and son research team of Mostafa El-Sayed and Ivan El-Sayed, showed that gold nanoparticles coated with a cancer antibody were very effective at binding to tumor cells. When bound to the gold, the cancer cells scattered light, making it very easy to identify the noncancerous cells from the malignant ones. The nanoparticles also absorbed the laser light more easily, so that the coated malignant cells only required half the laser energy to be killed compared to the benign cells. This makes it relatively easy to ensure that only the malignant cells are being destroyed.

Now, they've discovered that by changing the spheres into rods, they can lower the frequency to which the nanoparticles respond from the visible light spectrum used by the nanospheres to the near-infrared spectrum. Since these lasers can penetrate deeper under the skin than lasers in the visible spectrum, they can reach tumors that are inaccessible to visible lasers . . .

"This makes it more practical than the sphere in terms of treating cancer," said Mostafa El-Sayed. "For laser phototherapy treatment of skin cancer or, for diagnostic biopsies, the spheres are fine, but for phototherapy of cancer deep under the skin, like breast cancer, then one really needs to use the nanorods treatment."


Some good news for a change.

GoldiloxInvestors flee Iceland banks as economy heads towards forecast 'hard landing'#1424173/14/06; 08:34:39


Iceland's banks were pummelled yesterday as the Nordic economy lurched into its third week of crisis, flashing an ominous early-warning signal for markets worldwide.

The krona tumbled another 3pc against the US dollar and is now down almost 18pc this year, a victim of "hot money" flight by investors scrambling for the exit doors at the same time. Reykjavik's blue-chip stock index was down 3.3pc.

The cost of insuring against a bond default by Iceland's three big banks - Kaupthing, Landesbanki, and Islandibanki - shot up another 20 basis points yesterday as investors became increasingly alarmed over their use of foreign debt to fund an equity spree. "This is a warning sign the euphoria we've se en in global markets is dissipating rapidly," said Julian Callow, an economist at Barclays Capital.

Funds had piled into Iceland to milk 10.75pc rates but panicked after warnings of a "hard landing" by the credit agency Fitch. The krona's crash set off global dominos, hitting New Zealand, South Africa, Hungary, Poland and Turkey. The rumbling thunder of monetary tightening by all the world's big central banks provided the background music.

The banking crisis followed when Fitch and Merrill Lynch warned that the banks could have trouble rolling over their foreign debts. Merrill Lynch said the big three faced refinancing on $17.8bn of foreign debt by the end of 2007, equal to 130pc of Iceland's GDP.

"With a debt distribution that is front-loaded, Icelandic banks are particularly vulnerable to shifts in market confidence," it said.

Analysts said the banks had leveraged the nation to the hilt, borrowing vast sums on the global capital markets for a Viking conquest of corporate Europe. "The whole county has become a hedge fund," said one economist.


The perils of "debt-based" economics.

GoldiloxFair and Balanced#1424183/14/06; 09:27:03

CNBC's Bob Pisani just said fom the NYSE floor that "if we don't get some kind of rally going," he's going to get "cranky".

Not to suggest that these "newscasters" have conflicting interests. No wonder none of them will adequately cover the "bear" case.

SurvivorG'lox - "Fair and Balanced"#1424193/14/06; 11:57:10

CNBC content is only "Fair and Balanced" when considered in the context of its existence as the official information instrument of the NYSE. The station officially identifies itself as a "service of NBC and the NYSE" or words to that effect.

Not hard to understand why their bias is far away from any sort of good news for PMs or bad news for equities.

tejbearGoldilox: Question...#1424203/14/06; 12:02:41


Last night, I watched the first session of the "Money Masters". Nightmare of nightmares... Have you had a chance to reseach the accuracy of the information in the "Money Masters" presentation?


The Bear

The Hoople$2,000 gold , $6 at a time? #1424213/14/06; 12:27:22

When I made my gold price guess Sunday for tomorrow's Comex close it was based on 2 - $6 collar days, followed by 1 day at unchanged. Today's high tick- $553.40- is exactly $12 higher than Friday. These price managers are very unimaginitive! The $100 question: why did they choose $6 for a daily allowed gain? Was it based on 2% when gold was $300? How do technicians explain $6 moves rarely hitting any support/resistance numbers but arbitrarily stopping at meaningless price points? Where is the resistance at $553 or $447? Moving averages?Anything?
ArmageddonU.S. Debt Default Question#1424223/14/06; 12:51:57

I was wondering how likely people on this board believe a Debt Default by the United States government in the next couple weeks will be? The Congress is supposed to be in recess by the end of the week and the government is projected to run out of money by the week of the 20th. Thanks.
R PowellHoople#1424233/14/06; 13:10:17

May I suggest that randomness be considered when trying to analyse short term market moves? Key words there were "short term". I sometimes think the POG seems well behaved technically, in comparison with other markets. Very short term market price moves are sometimes just market noise. At least, that's my opinion as I've never been able to quite figure them out, nor has anyone else to the best of my knowledge.

Are the market forces that determine the POG stable + operating as they should be? I believe so. Is it perhaps, a deficiency in valid facts + information that distort some perceptions of gold's dollar value? Just some thoughts here, for no apparent reason. The POG, over a long term time frame (say last five years) has, imho, reacted quite logically. I wish I could say the same with other markets. Thoughts?

The HoopleRich,#1424243/14/06; 13:56:43

I can't see where gold hardly ever has acted logically over the past 5 years. Behemoth trade and account deficits, outbreaks of war, 9/11, virtually anything bearish for paper money has produced a gold sell-off. That doesn't seem logical. Another tip-off to me of price management (imo) is gold, unlike other commodities, never anticipating anything. Siver is even worse in that regard. Google shares anticipate them owning the planet yet gold and silver seemingly can't anticipate the next trading hour. Why isn't gold anticipating the UAE and their neighbours pulling out of U.S. assets in retaliation for the port fiasco? Or is that event already priced in? Also I don't think the shear volume of $6 limit days- not $7, not $8- can be attributed to randomness any more than the 93% probability of a lower Comex open. I do allow that years of management has produced a Pavlov-type response in the pit and electronic traders. They don't know why prices go to these points, they just know it's profitable to sell there. I do think gold is preparing to "misbehave badly and become disorderly"; in spite of what the BIS, AG, Gordon Brown, or any other banker thinks it should do.

More thoughts?

TownCrierBoilermaker (msg#: 142415), I beg to differ#1424253/14/06; 14:13:04

There would be precious little material benefit in any purchase of Barrick by Dubai (or any other holder of vast quantities of FRN's, as you say) because the gold in the in the ground already belongs to /or/ has been pre-committed to another.

Bottom line: ANYone can own a mining company, but that doesn't entitle them or ensure them that they'll be able to own the gold that they're mining.

For most of us mere mortals it will soon enough likely prove very obvious that it was highly prudent to have skipped the mining ops middleground and to have bid directly on the physical gold end-product with our investment dollars.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1424263/14/06; 14:58:08">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

TUESDAY Market Excerpts

Gold at 1-week high on all-around buying

March 14 (from Reuters) -- Gold in New York jumped to a one-week high at the close on Tuesday, powered by speculative and consumer buying and also by the dollar's steep fall, traders and analysts said.

COMEX April gold futures climbed $5.50 to finish at $553, near the top of a $543.50-to-$553.60 session range.

A fall in the dollar attracted traders to gold as a safe haven investment, dealers said, while gold also drew support from a flurry of short covering after prices bounced from the lows and from renewed physical demand over the last week.

Gold has a tight inverse correlation to the dollar's moves as some currency traders use the metal as a dollar hedge.

The dollar tumbled on soft U.S. economic data and on a report by an influential consulting group suggesting the Federal Reserve may be near the end of its tightening cycle.

Medley Global Advisors said the Fed was likely to raise rates to 4.75 percent but any tightening beyond that was far less assured. This prompted financial markets to pare back their bets that the Federal Open Market Committee would take U.S. interest rates to as high as 5.25 percent.

U.S. data showed that retail sales in February fell 1.3 percent, exceeding expectations for a 0.8 percent decline.

The U.S. fourth-quarter current account deficit widened to a record $224.9 billion, well above the forecast $217.7 billion.

---(see url for full new, 24-hr newswire)---

Gandalf the White"KING OF THEHILL" report !!!! <;-)#1424273/14/06; 15:03:11

I am sorry to say that I am still in deep Morador and was only able to hear that the April COMEX contract SETTLEMENT today was at $553.0 ! (I hope that this is correct.)

THEREFORE, with an entry of:

$$$$ $553.1 $$$$ goldenpeace (3/12/06; 10:03:14MT - msg#: 142345)

Sir Goldenpeace is the "KING OF THE HILL" today, with one day to go until the PRIZES are awarded !


Gandalf the WhiteHill "topers" today !! <;-)#1424283/14/06; 15:09:32

As posted: (THANKS USAGOLD Admin !)

COMEX April gold futures climbed $5.50 to finish at $553, near the top of a $543.50-to-$553.60 session range.

THEREFORE the persons that were atop the HILL today were:

$$$$ $553.4 $$$$ The Hoople (3/12/06; 12:43:27MT - msg#: 142354)

$$$$ $553.1 $$$$ goldenpeace (3/12/06; 10:03:14MT - msg#: 142345)

$$$$ $552.0 $$$$ Noble1 (3/11/06; 16:50:04MT - msg#: 142328)

$$$$ $551.1 $$$$ osa104c (3/9/06; 18:57:24MT - msg#: 142270)

$$$$ $550.0 $$$$ Felix the Cat (3/11/06; 07:13:08MT - msg#: 142316)

$$$$ $549.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (3/4/06; 22:13:41MT - msg#: 142117)

$$$$ $549.0 $$$$ Lance (3/10/06; 12:21:40MT - msg#: 142292)

$$$$ $548.5 $$$$ beowulf + (3/10/06; 07:54:45MT - msg#: 142283)

$$$$ $548.0 $$$$ YGM (3/10/06; 09:27:26MT - msg#: 142285)

$$$$ $546.5 $$$$ Topaz (3/4/06; 20:26:10MT - msg#: 142112)

$$$$ $545.6 $$$$ R Powell (3/12/06; 08:10:14MT - msg#: 142343)

$$$$ $545.2 $$$$ Tate (3/12/06; 15:29:09MT - msg#: 142358)

$$$$ $544.8 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (3/11/06; 20:08:11MT - msg#: 142331)

$$$$ $544.4 $$$$ Black Blade (3/12/06; 18:36:09MT - msg#: 142362)

$$$$ $543.7 $$$$ 24Wortel (3/12/06; 11:21:03MT - msg#: 142350)

TownCrierFed's latest favorite in its "bag of tricks" -- outright buying of Treasuries#1424293/14/06; 15:21:27

The Federal Reserve again today chose 'permanent' consequences in its open market operations in addition to its more common 'temporary' repo activity.

In addition to $6.25 billion in temporary fresh money added through overnight repurchase agreements today, the Fed continued to acquire (and thus 'permanently' monetize) government debt through outright purchase of Treasuries, this time targeting maturities in the range January 2009 to April 2032 to the tune of $450 million in general support.


GoldiloxDubai and Barrick#1424303/14/06; 16:12:20

@ TC and Boilermaker,

I was going to reply similarly, but I decided that you were probably being facetious, anyway.

Who wants to buy the biggest hedger of all during a bull market?

Only the banks who can manipulate the price [sometimes].

Goldendome Today's "Hill toppers report"#1424313/14/06; 16:19:47

Sir Gandalf: It makes no difference today--and probably won't tomorrow, either. But one number, $552.60 that was in the official listing Monday was left out today. I haven't checked to see if there were others.
GoldiloxGermany Keeps its Midas Touch -- for Now#1424323/14/06; 16:29:02,2144,1932931,00.html


A widening budget deficit continues to haunt Berlin. Spending cuts and tax increases are supposed to shrink the horrific shortfalls. Some would like to sell the country's treasured gold reserves to help make ends meet.
The world is again being seized by gold fever. Over the course of the past five years, the price of bullion has doubled. The current value of some $550 (462 euros) for one troy ounce is not even close to the all-time highs of the early 1980s. But the increase, particularly the sharp rise in the past 12 months, has made investors think twice about taking their chips off the table and cashing in.

And that includes the German government.

With over 3,400 tons of gold, Germany possesses the second-largest amount of the precious metal in the world -- behind the US, which has more than 8,000 tons. While the country boomed in the decades after World War II, Germany's central bank, the Bundesbank, bought up the huge amounts to win confidence from outsiders and to secure a stable international currency, despite the fact that the German mark was not on the gold standard.

The move paid off. The deutsche mark became the favored currency on the continent -- until 2002.

Diminished responsibilities

The death knell for the German mark -- the euro
When the euro was brought into circulation in its metal and paper form on Jan. 1, 2002, the Bundesbank suddenly lost it primary responsibilities -- the minting of coinage and bills, circulation and fiscal duties. Overnight, the Frankfurt-based institution became a veritable equal among all the other central banks of the euro zone. The center of monetary power shifted within Germany's financial capital to the European Central Bank, whose modern headquarters far outshined those of the old German mark managers.

But the Bundesbank is still responsible for the gold reserves that are currently worth some 50 billion euros ($60 billion). Bank president Axel Weber has repeatedly rejected calls from politicians in Berlin to be more generous with the gold reserves and has not responded positively to possible legislation that might force his hand.

Bundesbank President Weber (l) also had gold talks with former Finance Minister Hans Eichel
"We are not pursuing a change of the current law," he said in an interview with Dow Jones News published on the Bundesbank Web site. If the law is amended then it is "mandatory, that our autonomy with regard to politically-related currency decisions and the management of the (gold) reserves not be touched."

Special status gone with grand coalition

Members of Germany's ruling parties have accused the Bundesbank of acting improperly. In the Financial Times Deutschland, Social Democratic parliamentarian Joachim Poss last month called the bank board members "vain" and "stubborn."

Christian Democratic parliamentarian and budget committee member Steffen Kampeter was more diplomatic in his assessment of the bank.

Guardians of the euro -- the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt
"We have to ask ourselves, and the bank must ask itself, just how many gold reserves are necessary for a central bank that no longer manages a single currency," Kampeter said. "It would be smart to think of other reserve alternatives, such as other currencies."

Gold analyst Philip Klapwijk from GFMS in London agreed with those sentiments.

"Given that over 50 percent of the Bundesbank's foreign reserves are in gold (valued at market prices), there is a case for reserve diversification," he said. "Studies show that some gold in the portfolio does improve risk adjusted returns but the current holdings of the Bundesbank are excessive for this purpose."

Just how many assets should the government sell?

Officially, Bundesbank chief Weber has argued that the bank's independence cannot and should not be violated. Its legal status of being free from political influence is clear, he has said. But reading between the lines suggests another message.

"The country cannot go around selling all its assets," said Michael Schubert, the chief economist of Commerzbank.

To get out of debt, local governments are selling properties
Yet the German federal government has been doing just that in the last decade, privatizing the country's fortunes in a fashion resembling a fire-sale. Since 1995, 60 billion euros ($72 billion) worth has been sold.

"The sale of assets is the wrong perspective for politicians to have," said Deka Bank chief economist Ulrich Kater. "Gold should not be a reserve for the state. Reserves shore up confidence and the sales distract from the real problem."

That problem, according to almost all economists, bank president Weber included, is Berlin's failure to balance the country's budget. The profits from the sale of gold would only be a drop in the bucket towards plugging the budget shortfalls -- and it can only happen once.

Plus, it is not the responsibility of the Bundesbank to pick and choose when might be a profitable time to sell the gold. To do that, the bank would have to be privatized itself, an event that is as improbable as an overnight cure to the country's financial difficulties.


What, no overnight cure? oh oh!

Golden LionheartJ P Morgan#1424333/14/06; 16:53:26

In its various incarnations J P Morgan is still actively taking 7 to 10% stakes in Australian Gold Mines. These are on market transactions. Read into this what you will.
Gandalf the WhiteThanks Sir Goldendome !!#1424343/14/06; 17:37:28

"THAT" is what happens when one is working in the Mordor !
Sorry about that !

R PowellHoople // logical POG..?#1424353/14/06; 18:36:25

There is an old market saying that a market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Irrational and illogical are similar, no?

You said....
"I can't see where gold hardly ever has acted logically over the past 5 years. Behemoth trade and account deficits, outbreaks of war, 9/11, virtually anything bearish for paper money has produced a gold sell-off. That doesn't seem logical."

Everything you mentioned except for the 9/11 event were and are ongoing, especially wars. As such, why should the POG react to ongoing events at any one particular time, whether up or down? As for 9/11 or any unforeseen + sudden event, I guess these unknown + unknowable occurances will always surprise the markets. The original Washington Agreement was probably one of these. A gasoline refinery shutdown on Saint Croix helped to raise gas futures 10 cents today. These are sudden shocks. Some say there is already a $15.00/barrel "risk" premium priced in crude now. Maybe Black Blade could comment here? Perhaps even such risk premium doesn't always cover unforeseen events. Perhaps future events that threaten the supply of oil OR developments that change the supply/demand balance of gold will also change the price without altering that so-called "risk" premium..? Markets are always dynamic. I see the POG over a longer time frame as having been caught in an inverse relationship to the US buck + out of favor as an investment for many years. Both of these are no longer such + maybe now, for the first time in most peoples' lives, the POG is reacting to the invisible hand of supply + demand as well as receiving renewed interest as a secure wealth storage vehicle. Also, there investor interest, investor as those seeking paper profits only. It is with these views that I conclude that the POG has acted logical + fairly well behaved, much less volatile than say...silver!

There may also be large market positions that take advantage of price moving events or trends however precipitated, to offset positions. A situation that may lead one to believe the POG is going up or down in the near term may be just the opportunity very large longs or shorts have been waiting for to offset existing positions for profit. This is not panic selling just the routine business of paper traders. They may not even care much or understand much about whatever precipitates the current trend. They're just selling into buying or buying into selling. CNBC might call this "profit taking". I believe to some extent it does happen, quite frequently in the futures markets wherein gold trades.

One opinion that I've recently come across is that the trade deficit pertains to mostly manufactured good, tangible goods, imports versus exports. Perhaps the US economy is thriving in such enterprises as banking, sales of technology, foreign based businesses, etc. Are these profits counted in on the plus side in the trade deficit numbers? I'll readily agree that the production of manufactured goods that requires much labor is a dying industry in the so-called developed nations of the world. But remember, when the buggy whip maker lost his job, the auto mechanic job was born. Maybe the economy + the US dollar are not as bad off as some believe. There is much big business being done daily that never gets recorded as either a plus or minus in the balance of trade.

As for the UAE and others not wanting US dollars or US assets, fine with me. Let them buy whatever they want with their dollars or just hoard them if they care to. There are more dollars outside the country than there are within. I would guess a currency devaluation would effect all. The economies of China + India + others are doing exceptionally well now without the benefits of their currencies being regarded as reserve currencies, or even particularly sought after currencies. Does the perception of a strong currency strengthen one's economy or does a strong economy support one's currency? I gues I could make an argument either way but I don't know enough to even have a strong opinion..?

I've often wondered how this whole debt (private, corporate but mostly government debt) situation will be resolved? Will it ever be? I don't know but human nature likes to believe there is resolution to imbalances (social or economic). Or, as someone said, if a thing can not go on forever, it won't. So, assuming there is a "day of reckoning" (good book), how can the score be settled? The only way I can fathom is to monetize the debt or reduce the amount by devaluing the purchasing power of the dollar. If the minimum wage were raise tomorrow to say $625.00/hour + everything else were equally re-priced in terms of say "hours worked to earn item", then, our currently overpriced homes might become dirt cheap again + current burdensome debt levels would become small change. Voila, problem solved! I present this scenario with tongue in cheek, of course but how else can the debt issue be resolved?? I can think of no other way..other than perhaps wash them away in some sort of grand national bankruptcy...the common man's Resolution Trust. This might be a system shock as opposed to simply inflating big debt into small, manageable debt.

I choose $625.00/hour for my new minimum wage so that the math would be easy to do with other prices. How does a new POG of 100X today's close sound? That would also put the price of silver at about platinum's level.

There's nothing really new in these thoughts that hasn't been mentioned in various forms before but these came to my mind when trying to decide exactly why I do believe the POG has acted exactly as it should have these past many years. Fwiw, if anything 8>)

ToolieAnyone you know Sir Gandalf?#1424363/14/06; 19:04:15

Snip: Police raided his flat and seized jewellery, a gold bracelet and items of sorcery smuggled into Bahrain. The conman promised the businessman the treasures of "Shamhouresh" and "Red Ginn". He presented him with rings and bracelets bought from Manama gold market, claiming they were gifts from the King of Ginns. The man was expelled from a neighbouring GCC country for his involvement in a string of sorceries. (end snip)
MKSeeds#1424373/14/06; 19:11:22

The other day I mentioned the carry trade in a post. Allow me to elaborate.

There were those who believed that the Japanese central bank announcement that the days of 0% interest were over might cause the end of the bull market in commodities. . .gold included. The gold market -- a beneficiary -- sold off. What this group failed to blend into its analysis is the 'trade or die' pschology permanently inculcated in the entirety of the hedge fund and financial institution culture. You either trade or you lose your job -- so a .25%, or .5% or even a 1% rise in the yen rate will not prove an obstacle. The carry trade will continue.

That's why gold rallied today. . .the reality flew in the wind for a few days, lodged itself in fertile ground, pushed roots, and began to grow anew. . . .

The more things change the more they remain the same -- relatively speaking.

Clink!Carlyle Group explores acquisition of port operations#1424383/14/06; 20:01:45

The plot thickens - it wasn't Halliburton after all. But close. I was somewhat surprised at the odd wording of the DPW release that said that they would be "transferring" (not selling, divesting, spinning off, etc) the ports to a U.S. entity. Original link was from Mineset.

R PowellSources of capital#1424393/14/06; 20:16:16

I'm presently reading "Empire of Debt" which I've found extremely interesting, especially the chapter examining the Vietnam war. Anyway, one opinion expressed in the book is that an empire needs a source of financing, whether this be from taxation, outright plunder or simply capitalisation through debt.

The yen carry trade, that MK just mentioned, is one such source of cheap here being defined loosely as any source of money which costs less (less interest needs be paid to borrow the bucks) than can be made by investing that same money. Running up equity evaluations provided a source of money in the 1990s. Taping into increased house price evaluations recently provided another. The old gold carry + present yen carry trades are two more. Bonner contends in his book that there must always be a source of relatively cheap money to sustain an empire. Or, if all else fails, start another war + finance everything with deficit spending. After all, it's for the fatherland so no expense is too great! Is not our capitalistic economic system the same?

There must always be an expanding monetary supply + thus always a source of money. One of Bonner's main points is that the evolving American empire is being financed through debt. You knew that from the title, right? He finds it ironic that those being subjected under our spreading empire influence are actually financing the whole effort themselves. Is it true that the US has 265 military bases in 160 countries around the world? Hear that recently from an unreliable source (internet forum!).

If one agrees with the premise that there is always (must be) a source of money, even if it is simply created by printing $$ backed only by faith (fiat), for empires, missionaries, spreaders of democracies, defenders of the same, containers of communism so the dominos don't fall, evangelists, do-gooders + domineering arrogant capitalists out to save the world, then there must always be money for investment too, no? Maybe the newness of the situation is that more of this money is being invested in gold (and other tangibles) than has been in the past, especially before about year 2000. The reasons for gold ownership have been enumerated often. They appear more paramount as time passes. I would only add further that a new reason has been added. He's called investment Greed and he's really not new at all. Also, he's only in it for the profit but imho, he'll be around for a long time now. His cousin is Joe Public but he's not yet aware of the investment potential of gold. Joe's only a mania type guy, he likes dot coms and tulips.

R PowellMK#1424403/14/06; 20:39:05

Once gold was the source of cheap money (gold carry) for investment purposes. Now gold is one of the objects of investment for money raised from other carry trades. This thought is probably just new to me. I like it!

I find it ironic. Do we sell tulips to make money or make money to buy tulips? "Round and round and round in the circle game."

MKRich#1424413/14/06; 20:45:03

Had the same thought. One big difference between yen and gold. . .There's a theoretically infinite supply of the former and a dearth these days in the latter. There is not future in being short gold.
GoldiloxHyperbolic expansion#1424423/14/06; 21:15:21

@ Rich P,

I think that people are beginning to realize that we really are experiencing a hyperbolic expansion.

The interesting thing about hyperbolae is that they look deceptively linear during the initial rise (the very illusion that TPTB are trying to sell) - right up to the point where the slope crosses 1. At that point, the slope begins its fast track to infinity, as the curve asymptotically approaches the y-axis.

Like any pyramid scheme, it fails when the next larger level cannot support the previous level.

GoldiloxLarge Oil Spill in Alaska Went Undetected for Days#1424433/14/06; 22:01:47


WASHINGTON, March 14 — The largest oil spill to occur on the tundra of Alaska's North Slope has deposited up to 267,000 gallons of thick crude oil over two acres in the sprawling Prudhoe Bay production facilities, forcing cleanup crews to work in temperatures far below zero to vacuum and dig up the thick mixture of snow and oil.

Enlarge This Image

BP Exploration (Alaska) Inc.
Workers are cleaning up a two-acre site in the Prudhoe Bay area of Alaska after 267,000 gallons of crude leaked from a pipe on an oilfield.

BP Exploration (Alaska) Inc.
Corroded pipe leads to the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System.
The spill went undetected for as long as five days before an oilfield worker detected the acrid scent of hydrocarbons while driving through the area on March 2, Maureen Johnson, the senior vice president and manager of the Prudhoe Bay unit for BP, said at a news conference in Anchorage on Tuesday.

At the conference, officials from BP, the company pumping the oil, and from the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation said they believed that the oil had escaped through a pinprick-size hole in a corroded 34-inch pipe leading to the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System.

The pressure of the leaking oil, they said, gradually expanded the hole to a quarter- or half-inch wide. Most of the oil seeped beneath the snow without attracting the attention of workers monitoring alarm systems.

The leak occurred in a section of pipe built in the late 1970's, in the earliest days of oil production at Prudhoe Bay. The larger pipeline, which carries North Slope oil across the state, was completed in 1977.

Environmental groups were quick to point out that the spill raises doubts about the continuing reliability and durability of the infrastructure of North Slope production.

The current spill is among the worst in the pipeline's history, and the first of such a magnitude likely to be blamed on the decay of the aging system. In 1989, about 11 million gallons fouled Prince William Sound after the Exxon Valdez tanker ran aground. About 700,000 gallons escaped from the pipeline after vandals blew up a section of it in 1978, and about 285,000 gallons spilled in 2001 when a hunter shot the pipeline.


Bad weather hampered both the detection and now the cleanup of one of Alaska's largest land based oil spills. Another supply concern for crude.

By the way, has anyone else noticed the nearly $0.30 rise in gasoline pump prices in the last two weeks while the oil execs are being subpeonaed by CONgress?

Gandalf the WhiteSir Toolie's Question --- <;-)#1424443/15/06; 00:47:44

SOOOOO many "want to be's" !
Related to the Sauron clan, no doubt.

TownCrierIndia newspaper offers investors a "How to" on gold investing#1424453/15/06; 02:34:45,prtpage-1.cms

HEADLINE: Wanna invest in the gold mkt? Here're tips

TIMES NEWS NETWORK, MARCH 15, 2006 -- Today the gold market is hot. The price of standard gold this week opened at Rs 7,910/10 gm. Is gold a good investment? Portfolios that contain gold are generally more robust and better able to cope with market uncertainties than those that don't. Adding gold to a portfolio introduces an entirely different class of asset.

Gold is unusual because it is both a commodity and a monetary asset. It is an ‘effective diversifier’ because its performance tends to move independently of other investments and key economic indicators. Internationally, gold is considered an essential part of total investment portfolio, although in India historic gain from gold has been marginal. Still, there is a psychological and financial stolidity with gold.

According to analysts, over the long term, in spite of price fluctuations, gold has consistently reverted to its historic purchasing power parity and during the periods of financial, economic and social turmoil, gold has been a safe refuge when the value of other assets was all but destroyed.

Whether your investment approach is conservative or aggressive, gold bullion can play a vital role in diversifying your portfolio. In India, some banks offer gold bonds but they are not very popular with investors. Many experts urge investors to keep a portion of their total assets in gold...

^---(see url for full article)----^

The article concludes:

"Indians do not sell gold unless they are in deep trouble."

Such is the nature of true savings and highly prized property.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today (during Denver business hours) to speak with a broker about best prices and the best diversification strategy to meet your finanacial objectives.

TOLL FREE 1-800-869-5115


SundeckUn-be-leev-able!#1424463/15/06; 02:36:01

A billion here...a billion there...pretty soon we'll be talking REAL money...

Is this story believable? Would anyone try to pass billion-dollar bills? ....perhaps just preparing for the future....


U.S. Customs agents in California said on Tuesday they had found 250 bogus billion dollar bills while investigating a man charged with currency smuggling.


LacklusterArab stock markets hit by losses#1424473/15/06; 05:27:09

Someone playing hardball?
KiloBillion Dollar Bills#1424483/15/06; 06:02:28

....."Some people are still taken in".....

What did he do, buy a Slurpy at 7-eleven and ask for change ??



LacklusterBillion dollar bills#1424493/15/06; 06:10:16

Probably just beating the rush for the coming hyperinflation.
24karatBillion dollar bills?#1424503/15/06; 07:05:40

You don't think this is the reason we have 114 new billionaires on the Forbes list, do you?
The HoopleRich,#1424513/15/06; 07:27:17

Sorry for late reply. My mom's 81st birthday needed to be celebrated. I guess it basically amounts to whether you believe markets trade free and unfettered, or rather, if they have some form of management in official or unofficial form. I believe the evidence of management is nearly conclusive. The latest BIS discovery in their address to the EU summit only solidified that belief. But you are right, we've probably plowed most of this ground before so I won't pontificate further. Besides, it's getting exciting lately no matter which view you choose!
Thanks for your comments, both in gold and.. er, the other shiny.

GoldiloxBillion Dollar Bills#1424523/15/06; 07:35:08

It looks like HS is taking "currency jokes" in the same light as "bomb jokes".

"Some people are taken in by it" - Customs Agent

Who's the real dope in this story? Anyone with the means to change that bill cetainly knows better. This is the kind of agent who would arrest someone for fraud who "offered a bridge for sale", but unfortunately, it looks like many will be for sale.

The saddest thing about emergency ramping up of "security" is the number of people responsible for it that are clueless idiots.

They neither improve security nor public relations, but they're "on a mission" to make life miserable for everyone, because security is "serious business".

The Invisible HandSorry, I m very late - the Iranian Oil Bourse #1424533/15/06; 07:36:25

I asked in
The Invisible Hand (3/13/06; 16:58:53MT - msg#: 142396
whether the Iranian Oil Bourse was to start during the Iranian New Year Holidays.

Gandalf the White said in
Gandalf the White (3/13/06; 17:36:04MT - msg#: 142397)
that the LINK is "OFFICIAL" and states that "The Bourse" ----
Gandalf went on to ask whether I think that something is "LOST IN TRANSLATION" ?

I didn't think so. I only wondered, and still wonder, why the IOB would START during the Iranian New Year Holidays. Wouldn't it make more sense to start the Bourse when the country is on ‘business as usual"?

GoldiloxGold Trades Near One-Week High on Expectation Dollar May Weaken#1424543/15/06; 07:58:51


March 15 (Bloomberg) -- Gold traded near the highest in a week on expectations U.S. economic data this week will weaken the dollar against the euro, making the metal more attractive as an alternative investment.

The dollar had the biggest drop in almost three weeks against the yen yesterday after a government report showed the U.S. current-account deficit widened to a record in the fourth quarter. The U.S. currency may decline for a third day before manufacturing and housing confidence reports that economists expect will point to slower growth.

"This is an important week for the dollar, and consequently for gold,'' said Michael Widmer, an analyst with Macquarie Bank Ltd. in London, in an interview today. "The market is looking for direction; it's been quite volatile lately.''


Ya think?

GoldiloxU.S. demands results from China#1424553/15/06; 08:51:35


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Bush administration warned Beijing on Tuesday that the United States is increasingly fed up with China's closed markets and rampant theft of intellectual property.

Good intentions from China are no longer enough. "Our focus is on results," said Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez in a speech to the Asia Society on Tuesday. See full speech.

"Without concrete results, the administration, and the American people, may be forced to reassess our economic relationship," he said.

Gutierrez's speech is the latest in a series of warnings from Washington to Beijing.

Gutierrez complained that U.S. firms do not have fair access to Chinese markets. He also noted that China has 30,000 cops policing the Internet but has arrested very few pirates who steal U.S.-made software, music and movies, or counterfeiters who make phony drugs, auto parts and electrical equipment.

"In the case of software, our trade deficit is being depressed by nothing short of criminal activity," he said.

As part of his "candid assessment" of the trade relationship, Gutierrez warned of rising protectionist sentiments in Congress.

"Without results, I'm afraid Congress may go down a path that none of us want," Gutierrez said.

"When China fails to act, it only strengthens those who want to build protectionist barriers around the U.S. market," Gutierrez said. "That's the last thing we need."

Pending legislation would impose tariffs of 27.5% on all Chinese imports unless China revalues its currency.


More "protectionist warnings" from the guy who made a fortune selling us breakfast products whose packaging contains more food value than the product.

geRussian oil exchange to launch in late 2006 - minister#1424563/15/06; 12:36:01

TownCrierGold, silver trading freed of government chains#1424573/15/06; 12:55:48

Himalayan News Service
Kathmandu, March 15:

The government has allowed interested firms and commercial banks to import gold and silver ornaments freely under open general licence (OGL) from Wednesday.

As per the new provisions announced by the government, the earlier provision of importing gold and silver through baggage rules has been scrapped.

Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) has issued a circular to all commercial banks with a view to inform them of the permission to import gold and silver, scrapping the letter of credit (LC) system. This was informed by Ram Prasad Adhikari, executive director of foreign exchange department at NRB at his chamber, today while speaking to a few journalists.

After the new provision in gold business, there is no need to open LC and any firm can import gold and silver as much as they want which is expected to solve the supply constraints presently facing the country.

While importing gold, the government will charge duty at the rate of Rs 130 per 10 gram, as per the new provision.

Tej Ratna Shakya, president of Gold and Silver Dealers Association of Nepal (GSDAN) said that this system would have a positive impact on the bullion business. Shakya hoped that this provision would help in having a competitive price mechanism for the Nepali market as currently the price of gold and silver here are more expensive compared to Indian markets...

^---(from url)---^

Always nice to see yet another obstacle being surmounted by official action such that physical gold can flow and be traded more freely in the various corners of the world.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Put a Solid Foundation Under Your Portfolio#1424583/15/06; 13:01:01

Swiss Gold Francs

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

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Gandalf the WhiteTA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA --- Winners !!#1424593/15/06; 13:42:28

I am still very busy in Morador, but have learned that the COMES April Contract SETTLEMENT for "The Ides Of March" was $554.4 !!

AND the WINNERS are:

Sir Canamami wins the Mexican 10 Peso goldpiece, while Sir 24karat and Sir The Hoople both win a US Silver Eagle.

$$$$ $554.7 $$$$ canamami (3/12/06; 17:44:26MT - msg#: 142361)

$$$$ $553.8 $$$$ 24karat (3/11/06; 11:04:59MT - msg#: 142318)

$$$$ $553.4 $$$$ The Hoople (3/12/06; 12:43:27MT - msg#: 142354)

Will the WINNERS please contact Jamie at USAGOLD with their snailmail shipping addresses. She can be reached at either:


or 800-869-5115 Extension #108

Please advise her of your USAGOLD Forum "handle" too.



canamamiThank You USAGOLD....#1424603/15/06; 13:51:12

...for running such a fine website and contest.

There is an interesting article on the Iranian oil bourse: "The other Iranian threat" in the March 13, 2006 edition of the Western Standard, at page 18, by Kevin Steel. It's not online yet, but I will link to it when it is put online.

Nedcananami..#1424613/15/06; 13:59:44

According to the article, is the IOB going to happen?
TownCrierA nice summary overview by Julian Phillips#1424623/15/06; 14:17:12

TITLE: The Global Monetary System, Gold & Oil --1971 Until The Future
-March 2006-
In 1971 Nixon closed the gold window on the $ and turned the European nations away from redeeming Eurodollars into gold at the price of $42.35, thus devaluing the U.S. $ by the extent the gold price rose. This was keenly felt in all the markets across the globe because it was a particularly visible blow for the $ and for the sterling as the "$ Premium" was imposed in the U.K. to prevent a wave of capital exiting the country. Shortly thereafter the oil price shot up to $35 a barrel from the $8 level it had happily sat at before. In those days, even with no gold standard, gold was considered the foundation on which paper money stood....

It must have taken the tacit if not the full support of Europe to support the move from gold to the $, held as they were, to ransom through U.S. power over oil supplies and its pricing as is the case today! But note well, please, that the objective was not to thoroughly discredit gold, as it will always prove vital "in extremis", but was to put it in a non-monetary role, as a non-threatening or challenging reserve asset.

Thereafter through the eighties and nineties, gold suffered under a persistent campaign to discredit/ demean it as money, but not through actual sales of gold [although these were constantly threatened], but through the accelerated production of gold into an already oversupplied market. This accelerated production of gold came about by a system whereby Central Banks lent gold to bullion banks, who then on-lent it to mining companies to finance their development.

Today this is still done, whereby the cost of financing development of a mine was raised through the immediate sale of the gold borrowed from the bullion banks, with a promise to repay the gold from future production [called "hedging"] in an operation wheregold was sold forward at the forward price [in the futures market]which included the interest to be accrued over the period [the "Contango"] until future production supplied that gold.Higher than market prices were achieved in this way, particularly as the gold price was steadily falling over the period, aided by threats of gold sales made loudly in the market by Central Banks. But the banks, Central and otherwise, together with the mines went overboard and sold the bulk of their future production forward in this manner. This looked wonderful in a falling gold price market, but became the reverse when the gold price started to rise!

In 1999 the European Central Banks, with the impending launch of the Euro in mind, decided that the anti-gold campaign had gone too far and decided to form the Central Bank Gold Agreement, whereby they would restrict gold sales to those already announced to the public and to place a ceiling on such sales of 400 tonnes for the next 5 years. Again gold was placed in a secondary role in the European monetary system in a campaign highlighting its junior role.

But the limitation of gold sales took the fear of dumping of gold onto the open market, away. However, after a full 20 years of such threats the market was slow to fully appreciate the change in "Official" attitudes.

...In an environment already created for it, the Euro was launched without gold as a threat to it as a paper currency anymore. A generation had passed by and the average fund manager knew nothing of the world in which gold was money. The European Central Bank could happily announce that it aimed for the Euro to be backed by its reserves of which gold would represent only 15% [a target not a rigid line]. Now gold could enter the monetary scene as a reserve asset in SUPPORT of fiat currencies, NOT a challenge...

^---(see url for full article)---^

Hits pretty close to the mark on most accounts -- certainly closer than most other commentators. Have a look.


canamamiResponse to Ned#1424633/15/06; 14:31:19

The article basically describes the plan, and interviews observers with different opinions. A good intro piece to the Iranian bourse plan. One observer points out the Russians have been charging for their oil in euros for quite a while, although the oil is priced in US dollars.
TownCrierShort & (not) Sweet... Dollar slips after US capital flows data#1424643/15/06; 14:45:01

NEW YORK, March 15 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped back toward the lower end of intraday ranges on Wednesday after the release of data that showed capital inflows into the U.S. in January failed to cover that month's record trade deficit.

The U.S. Treasury said on Wednesday that net capital inflows in January were $66 billion, just short of that month's $68.5 billion trade deficit.

It was the second consecutive month net inflows failed to cover the trade deficit.

^---(from url)---^

Elsewhere in a more comprehensive article on the Treasury's International Capital monthly report, Reuters says, "Net foreign purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds and notes slowed to a much smaller-than-expected $4.4 billion... the smallest level of Treasury buying since net sales of $3.2 billion in February 2003, according to a Treasury official."

Signs that the appetite for U.S. bonds has finally grown stale?

If you're not diversified ahead of time, you're not diversified at all.


R PowellGoldilox#1424653/15/06; 14:55:47

Hyperbolic expansion?

Well all right then. I've checked everything and I believe I'm ready. Maybe you should give another warning call for those who may have missed yesterday's post? After that, please start at your convenience.

Congrats to the contest winners!!

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1424663/15/06; 16:35:30">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

WEDNESDAY Market Excerpts

March 15 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold prices closed higher Wednesday to tally a three-session gain of $13, finding support from weakness in the U.S. dollar, concerns over Iran and expectations for higher gold consumption from India.

"A weaker dollar, continued geopolitical concerns, weak government data, and higher oil prices have all been factors that have pushed gold higher in the last several days," said Emanuel Balarie, a senior market strategist at Wisdom Financial.

COMEX April gold futures climbed as high as $558.30 before closing at $554.40, up $1.40 at its highest session-ending level since March 7.

The dollar weakened against its major rivals Wednesday, hitting a fresh one-week low versus the euro, after a Treasury report showed capital inflows failed to cover the record trade deficit of the corresponding month.

Balarie expects fundamental factors and the "continually high oil prices" to eventually pass through to the core CPI numbers, he said.

Until then, he expects gold to trade between the $535-$570 range. "A sharp move up in oil and a sharp sell off in the dollar could also push gold to the $600 level."

And over in India, consumers are "still waiting for lower prices, not happy with this volatility," said Julian Phillips, an analyst at But "as the [Indian] wedding season gets underway in earnest one wonders how long it will take an irate mother to push a cautious father into buying," he said.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

TownCrierDubai's gold imports substantial#1424673/15/06; 16:51:34

Dubai imported 522 tonness of gold in 2005, up from 502 tonnes in 2004, according to a recent statement from the Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre (DMCC).

The figure is substantial considering that a recent report by GFMS, an independent London-based consultancy and research company focused on international gold and silver markets, had estimated that the world gold supply averaged 3,997 tonnes in 2005, meaning that one in every eight tonnes of gold supplied in the world comes to Dubai.

The increase in imports of gold to Dubai took place despite the overall increase in gold prices, which reached 25-year highs in 2005.

"Dubai is known as the City of Gold, and these statistics support that," said Colin Griffith, executive director, gold and precious metals, DMCC. "The rising price has been driven by investors who look at gold as a secure asset class, rather than by end users, despite a steady growth in consumer demand from China and India," he added.

"Demand from the Middle East has also witnessed an average annual increase of five to 10 per cent, backed by high regional liquidity and the security of gold as a stable asset in uncertain times," he added.

"The establishment of the DMCC has gone a long way towards streamlining and making the local markets more transparent and thereby growing the volume of gold trade through Dubai. We estimate that the current volume of 522 tonnes will continue to increase in 2006."

"Recent research and estimates for 2006 envisage that the surge in gold prices is expected to continue over the year with prices remaining very volatile and probably touching $600 an ounce," he added.

^---(from url)---^

Shall likely provide for a significant pricing benchmark when, as the only actor on the world stage, Saturday and Sunday trading commences in the days ahead.


PRITCHOFrom Richard Russell - - - - Latest Comments March 15th, 2006#1424683/15/06; 17:30:57

Therefore, my eyes are continually on the US dollar. Sure, I sell subscriptions for dollars, I pay my bills with dollars, I read in Forbes magazine this week about people who have billions of dollars -- and I keep wondering how long the dollar will be accepted as money. Can fantasy money last forever? Honestly, I don't see how it can.

Now here's an amazing situation. Below we see a point and figure chart of the US Dollar Index. I've shown this chart a few times before. Let's not kid ourselves, this is a potentially powerful chart. What we see here is an impressive base being constructed. And frankly, I kept thinking that the Dollar Index was going to surge out of this huge base. But that hasn't happened yet. In order to break out, the Dollar Index would have to hit the 93.00 box. That just hasn't happened yet. What would turn this pattern bearish. The Dollar Index would have to decline to 88.00. That hasn't happened yet.

So this beautiful base just sits there. No breakout to the upside, no break to the downside. Yet the world continues to accept US dollars. US prosperity absolutely depends on the world accepting dollars. And that's OK with me, but just in case the fantasy dollar-bubble bursts, I want to have real money -- gold. And I er, expect that somewhere ahead the rest of the world will start agreeing with me. Wait, they already are beginning to agree with me. How do I know? Rising gold in dollars is telling me so...The bull market in gold is telling me the real story.

PRITCHO Snip 2 -- Richard Russell - - - - Latest Comments March 15th, 2006#1424693/15/06; 17:38:22

What about Silver ?

Snip 2 :

Mr. Russell,

I have been following your periodic essays for some time and have great respect for your opinion. My sense is you're right to suspect that "the primary bear" may be stirring from his cave. My one question, if you've a mind to offer an opinion, is this: In the event that the bear does come roaring back, what about silver? You suggest safe haven in T-bills and gold bullion. Does that include silver, which to date has seemed tethered, if loosely, to gold? Is silver money too these days, in the mind of the masses and the money managers?

If you are too busy to respond directly, perhaps you could touch on this question in a future essay.If you do,I would be most grateful for a heads-up.
Thank you,
John Dummer

Russell Comment -- No central bank holds silver today, so in a way you can say that silver has been demonetized. Silver has a long history of being a precious metal, but only during precious metal bull markets (as now).I believe the debate is basically worthless. Right now there is a shortage of silver, and the fact is that since August 2005 silver has clearly been outperforming gold.

The classic ratio is for one ounce of gold to buy 17 ounces
of silver. But this ratio has been as high as 100 -- it is now 54, meaning that one ounce of gold will buy 54 ounces of silver.I'm not greedy. And I just feel safer with gold.
So let silver outperform gold, I'll probably stay with gold. If the silver ETF is ever approved, I might buy some shares, but I'm perfectly happy to remain in gold.

SundeckPOG competition#1424703/15/06; 18:00:35

Wha!! Why wasn't gold propelled to $587.0 as I predicted #142183 ??? What happened to Caesar's Ghost? It was supposed to show-up on the Ides and spook the market??

Ohhhh...I see...Caesar's Ghost was working on the Julian Calendar (not surprising, I suppose) and Sundeck was on the Gregorian Calendar. That means that Caesar's Ghost is hovering in space about 15 days around Earth-orbit from where Earth is at the moment... Dang! Why didn't I think of that at the time? Oh well...expect POG to go to $587 in about 15 days time....sigh!!


@Golden Lionheart #142185....Close, but no cigar, good Sir!

Congratulations to the winners...


Golden LionheartBogus notes#1424713/15/06; 18:06:32

From the West Australian newspaper today....Quote "Authorities have seized 250 bogus US Federal Reserve promissory notes each bearing a $US1billion face value in a Los Angeles apartment. The notes dated 1934, were treated to look old, investigators said. The highest Federal Reserve not ever issued was $US100,000" unquote
Golden LionheartPOG Competition#1424723/15/06; 18:11:01

G'day Sundeck..............We will triumph next time! I certainly wish you had won it but that price will be seen again in the next few months I am sure.
Golden LionheartForged Notes.....#1424733/15/06; 18:15:33

Please read note and not not in my posting earlier. I have only one eye that works properly and often make silly typing mistakes. I am also "one eyed" in my love for gold!
physicalman(No Subject)#1424743/15/06; 19:43:37

I'm finally recovered from being very ill for almost 3 months, dang near died, so life is very good right now.
R. Powell good to see you posting again, did ya get to pour more concrete this winter with the temp. up? Hope so so ya can buy more shiny yellow and white.
DANG! i missed the contest. oh well, no biggie as i always bid high unless the invisible hand shows up with his bid first. Got a question for the other posters here, tell me if you think i made a mistake. Took and sold 7k oz. of ag few weeks ago when it busted 10 dollars and bought me 2 of them ssr's that chevrolet makes, kind of a hot rod pick-up. I am a serious tightwad and never have bought a new car before and got 11k off of msrp on em and got me a red one and a yellow one. I really like the vehicles but am feeling super guilty about it too. If ya'll let me have i won't get mad as i respect everyones opinion here very much.
Think gold will break 625 by april 10th and silver will crack 11 bucks by then too. The ides of march effect may have been off target by a few weeks.
thanks mike
P.S. If silver cracks 20 bucks an oz., should i take some off the table and convert more to gold or t-bills and if so, in what ratio? All my silver holdings are in physical form.

goldquest@physicalman#1424753/15/06; 20:45:40

Nope, you don't need to feel guilty about treating yourself to a few of life's pleasures.
You answered your own question, "dang near died," should tell you that none of us know what the future holds.
Do something good for others but don't deny yourself in the process.
Welcome back and all the best!
Also, congrats to the contest winners and mucho thanks to MK and crew and of course to Gandy for another fun contest.

Black BladeIdes Of March#1424763/15/06; 20:51:30

It was an interesting contest with a wide range of movement as we saw the influence of volatility in currencies, geopolitical concerns, and a "current account deficit" that is out of control. My price guess was well short or as Maxwell Smart would say - "missed it by that much". Congratulations to the winners.

Also - Good to see you are well physicalman.

- Black Blade

GoldiloxWelcome back#1424773/15/06; 21:25:59

@ Physicalman,

Welcome back. Enjoy the Chevy. I bought a C4 'vette for my 50th birthday, and never regretted it.

As for your gold/silver ratio, only you know what's best. Search your heart and keep a lot of both handy.

SmeagolAnd we thought OUR guess was low at the time...#1424783/15/06; 21:29:04

Applauses and congratulations to the Contesst Winners! ~8-)


SmeagolM3 To Remain? - can they DO that?#1424793/15/06; 21:38:27

...sstolen - er, borrowed from a post in the GIM forum (thanks you Jeffs47)... Ron Paul wantss to force the Fed to keep publishing M3...


Sunshine in Monetary Policy Act (Introduced in House)
HR 4892 IH
2d Session
H. R. 4892

To require the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System to continue to make available to the public on a weekly basis information on the measure of the M3 monetary aggregate, and its components, and for other purposes.

March 7, 2006
Mr. PAUL (for himself and Mr. JONES of North Carolina) introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Financial Services

To require the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System to continue to make available to the public on a weekly basis information on the measure of the M3 monetary aggregate, and its components, and for other purposes.

* Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,


* This Act may be cited as the `Sunshine in Monetary Policy Act'.


* (a) In General- Notwithstanding the announcement by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on November 10, 2005, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System shall continue, after March 22, 2006, to compile and to publish on a weekly basis the measure of the M3 monetary aggregate and the components of the M3 that are not included in the measure of the M2 monetary aggregate.
(b) M3 Monetary Aggregate Defined- For purposes of this section, the term `M3 monetary aggregate' means the inclusive measure of money compiled by adding the following:

(1) M1 COMPONENTS- Currency in circulation (plus traveler's checks), demand deposits, Negotiable Order of Withdrawal (NOW) accounts, and similar interest-earning checking account balances.
(2) THE NON-M1 COMPONENTS OF M2- Household holdings of savings deposits, small time deposits, and retail money market mutual fund balances (exclusive of balances held in IRA and Keogh accounts).
(3) THE NON-M2 COMPONENTS OF M3- Institutional money market mutual fund balances and managed liabilities of depositories consisting of large time deposits, repurchase agreements, and Eurodollars.



TopazSilver.#1424803/15/06; 23:04:34

2 contract equivalents got done yesterday with 600 odd still open ...things lookin good for a run in Ag here and hopefully Au will go in tandem.
Linked is the "front-door" of Jesse's site, too good to miss on the way to his Silver Chart, enjoy!

Congrats also to the Comp winners, Gandalf and CPM USAGold.

Gandalf the WhiteBTW --- Notice that the WINNER was "in the middle of the pack" !!#1424813/16/06; 00:47:17

The "Ides of March" POG CONTEST

$$$$ $750.0 $$$$ Beamer (3/3/06; 16:07:46MT - msg#: 142093)

**** $606.6 **** mdgc (3/9/06; 09:02:14MT - msg#: 142246)

$$$$ $601.0 $$$$ Armageddon (3/7/06; 18:25:32MT - msg#: 142207)

$$$$ $600.0 $$$$ el dorado (3/6/06; 16:58:32MT - msg#: 142174)

$$$$ $599.0 $$$$ contrarian (3/11/06; 01:22:28MT - msg#: 142314)

$$$$ $587.0 $$$$ Sundeck (3/6/06; 21:09:59MT - msg#: 142183)

$$$$ $585.8 $$$$ Waverider (3/4/06; 21:01:58MT - msg#: 142114)

$$$$ $583.4 $$$$ Flatliner (3/3/06; 10:39:39MT - msg#: 142088)

$$$$ $580.1 $$$$ Slowman (3/5/06; 15:33:02MT - msg#: 142138)
$$$$ $580.0 $$$$ mikal (3/12/06; 22:32:29MT - msg#: 142371)

$$$$ $578.9 $$$$ Matthew (3/11/06; 02:50:36MT - msg#: 142315)

$$$$ $577.1 $$$$ Chally (3/5/06; 22:37:54MT - msg#: 142151)

$$$$ $574.5 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (3/5/06; 13:28:05MT - msg#: 142135)
**** $574.4 **** arbyh (3/5/06; 11:43:24MT - msg#: 142133)

$$$$ $572.0 $$$$ Clink! (3/7/06; 06:40:36MT - msg#: 142190)
$$$$ $571.9 $$$$ glockmaster19 (3/7/06; 14:33:19MT - msg#: 142198)

$$$$ $570.0 $$$$ Liberty Head (3/5/06; 14:02:09MT - msg#: 142137)

$$$$ $569.1 $$$$ Caradoc (3/12/06; 23:30:07MT - msg#: 142375)

$$$$ $568.8 $$$$ Beer Man (03/04/06; 12:17:16MT - msg#: 142102)

$$$$ $568.4 $$$$ Freedom (3/5/06; 11:12:11MT - msg#: 142131)

$$$$ $567.6 $$$$ The Knife (3/6/06; 17:14:28MT - msg#: 142175)

$$$$ $566.0 $$$$ compwiz4u (3/12/06; 19:19:03MT - msg#: 142366)

$$$$ $565.0 $$$$ Rocky (3/3/06; 14:30:02MT - msg#: 142091)

$$$$ $564.7 $$$$ Mthirsty1 (3/6/06; 17:55:50MT - msg#: 142179)

$$$ FRN564.0 $$$ Goldilox (3/7/06; 12:45:03MT - msg#: 142193)

$$$$ $563.4 $$$$ goldquest (3/12/06; 19:09:55MT - msg#: 142364)

$$$$ $562.1 $$$$ Rimh (3/11/06; 23:40:11MT - msg#: 142337)

$$$ FRN560.5 $$$ Smeagol (3/4/06; 18:22:20MT - msg#: 142108)

$$$$ $559.8 $$$$ 2023 (3/9/06; 02:13:17MT - msg#: 142241)

**** $558.3 **** Boilermaker (3/9/06; 17:02:04MT - msg#: 142265)

$$$$ $556.6 $$$$ Believer (3/12/06; 19:01:30MT - msg#: 142363)

$$$$ $556.0 $$$$ Wky_Woodsman (3/12/06; 20:48:37MT - msg#: 142369)

$$$$ $555.5 $$$$ Usul (3/10/06; 13:04:58MT - msg#: 142293)

$$$$ $554.7 $$$$ canamami (3/12/06; 17:44:26MT - msg#: 142361)

$$$$ $553.8 $$$$ 24karat (3/11/06; 11:04:59MT - msg#: 142318)

$$$$ $553.4 $$$$ The Hoople (3/12/06; 12:43:27MT - msg#: 142354)

$$$$ $553.1 $$$$ goldenpeace (3/12/06; 10:03:14MT - msg#: 142345)

$$$$ $552.6 $$$$ Goldendome (3/12/06; 22:56:32MT - msg#: 142374)

$$$$ $552.0 $$$$ Noble1 (3/11/06; 16:50:04MT - msg#: 142328)

$$$$ $551.1 $$$$ osa104c (3/9/06; 18:57:24MT - msg#: 142270)

$$$$ $550.0 $$$$ Felix the Cat (3/11/06; 07:13:08MT - msg#: 142316)

$$$$ $549.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (3/4/06; 22:13:41MT - msg#: 142117)

$$$$ $549.0 $$$$ Lance (3/10/06; 12:21:40MT - msg#: 142292)

$$$$ $548.5 $$$$ beowulf + (3/10/06; 07:54:45MT - msg#: 142283)

$$$$ $548.0 $$$$ YGM (3/10/06; 09:27:26MT - msg#: 142285)

$$$$ $547.0 $$$$ spikedog (3/12/06; 22:51:15MT - msg#: 142373)

$$$$ $546.5 $$$$ Topaz (3/4/06; 20:26:10MT - msg#: 142112)

$$$$ $545.6 $$$$ R Powell (3/12/06; 08:10:14MT - msg#: 142343)

$$$$ $545.2 $$$$ Tate (3/12/06; 15:29:09MT - msg#: 142358)

$$$$ $544.8 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (3/11/06; 20:08:11MT - msg#: 142331)

$$$$ $544.4 $$$$ Black Blade (3/12/06; 18:36:09MT - msg#: 142362)

$$$$ $543.7 $$$$ 24Wortel (3/12/06; 11:21:03MT - msg#: 142350)

$$$$ $543.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (3/9/06; 15:50:37MT - msg#: 142260)

$$$$ $542.3 $$$$ Prius (3/12/06; 13:16:20MT - msg#: 142355)

$$$$ $542.0 $$$$ slingshot (3/12/06; 08:07:56MT - msg#: 142342)

$$$$ $540.0 $$$$ Camel (3/10/06; 17:45:59MT - msg#: 142305)

$$$$ $539.9 $$$$ guns'n'butter (3/10/06; 22:13:53MT - msg#: 142308)

$$$$ $539.0 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (3/12/06; 11:07:39MT - msg#: 142349)

$$$$ $538.2 $$$$ Shermag (3/11/06; 11:15:34MT - msg#: 142320)

$$$$ $537.3 $$$$ balzac (3/10/06; 10:10:52MT - msg#: 142287)

$$$$ $535.7 $$$$ Toolie (3/10/06; 20:59:19MT - msg#: 142307)

$$$$ $534.0 $$$$ Buongiorno! (3/12/06; 16:19:16MT - msg#: 142359)

$$$$ $533.0 $$$$ Nomad (3/10/06; 19:17:12MT - msg#: 142306)

$$$$ $530.0 $$$$ tejbear (3/8/06; 04:54:08MT - msg#: 142212)

$$$$ $520.0 $$$$ DryWasher (3/11/06; 09:34:28MT - msg#: 142317)

$$$$ $518.9 $$$$ 7nomads (3/11/06; 22:33:59MT - msg#: 142333)

$$$$ $515.0 $$$$ Goldenera (3/12/06; 10:22:00MT - msg#: 142346)

adminWinners#1424823/16/06; 01:04:35

Jamie's e-mail address is

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


UsulContest Statsfest!#1424833/16/06; 04:53:43

No. of entries: 67

Histogram of the entries

510-520 ***
520-530 *
530-540 ********
540-550 ***************
550-560 ************
560-570 ************
570-580 *******
580-590 ****
590-600 **
600-610 **
740-750 *

Average: 560.3
Median: 554.7
Skewness: 3.72
(Skewness characterizes the degree of asymmetry of a distribution around its mean. Positive skewness indicates a distribution with an asymmetric tail extending toward more positive values.)
Kurtosis: 22.1
(Kurtosis characterizes the relative peakedness or flatness of a distribution compared with the normal distribution. Positive kurtosis indicates a relatively peaked distribution.)
Std Dev (of whole popn.) 30.32
Confidence interval at 95% level: 7.26
Confidence limits 553.0 - 567.5
Average of 2nd and 3rd quartiles: 556.1

Actual April Contract settlement was $554.4 (Gandalf the White msg# 142459)


GoldiloxOur Worst Nightmare – The Bubble Has Burst!#1424843/16/06; 05:23:14

Dudley Baker from the other castle


In an earlier article entitled ' Our Worst Nightmare: The Puncture of the Current U.S. Housing Bubble' we noted that "The key to holding up the entire speculative US financial system with its current excessive levels of debt – federal (current account and trade), state, municipal, corporate and household – is maintaining the U.S. housing bubble. Anything less would result in America' s worst nightmare and, in short order, the entire world. One too many additional increases in the Fed rate may well turn out to be the U.S. economy' s Achilles' heel. With at least two more increases expected in the first half of 2006 this could well be the year." Well, it would seem from all reports of late that the Fed has, indeed, gone beyond the tipping point with its latest interest rate increase and, as such, has set up America for a financial meltdown. Rather strong words, you say! Hardly. It is just what many of the world' s financial experts have predicted will happen in our recent article ' Ominous Warnings and Dire Predictions of World' s Financial Experts, Part 1.'

Be that as it may, the vast majority of Americans, as indicated in a recent Bloomberg Los Angeles Times poll, remain confident that housing values will continue to flourish and that the high-flying market will come in for a smooth, soft landing instead of a crash. In fact, on average, only 15% of those Americans surveyed expect home prices in their neighbourhood to fall during the next 6 months while 26% see prices rising during that time while those investors making more than $100,000 a year were even more optimistic at 12% and 43% respectively. Indeed, almost 7 out of 10 expect the value of their homes to appreciate by 5% to 30% during the next three years and more than a third singled out real estate as the place they would put additional money if they had it to invest.

Unfortunately, the facts below do not support their optimistic outlook which is doing nothing more than set them up for a harsh dose of reality and financial loss as events unfold . . .

UsulWeak news bleeding greenback#1424853/16/06; 05:29:47

Gold, which almost always grows more appealing to investors as the greenback grows queasier, has responded to all this by resuming its climb...
GoldiloxMore from "The Coming Dark Age" - "History's Logic", Chapter 11#1424863/16/06; 05:44:07


The phenomenon of independent, simultaneous invention shows that there is no shortage of heroic individuals. For example, three people separately invented the telescope in the same year, and three different surgeons separately pioneered heart transplant operations within six weeks of each other. There are countless examples of this phenomenon. It shows that ideas are in the air when they are discovered, and the progress of history does not depend fundamentally on the efforts of any one person. Indeed, in other cases, scientists seem to have discovered things ahead of time, as Mendel did with genes, and their work has then been neglected until it could be properly understood.

The truth is that people simply find it easier to think in terms of heroic individuals and discrete incidents than in terms of abstract historical processes. It is easier to remember that Columbus discovered America than to grasp the complex trends whereby Europeans were pressing out into the wider world. The fact that Columbus visited the mainland only briefly, and died still thinking that he had reached India, is ignored, as is the fact that British merchant sailors independently discovered North America within a few years of Columbus's first voyage or possibly even beforehand. To say that Columbus discovered America is a shorthand for a process with a much deeper keel. When this greater process is acknowledged, it may be recognised that the chance event was the insignificant fact that it happened to be Columbus. The significant event – the European eruption towards America – had nothing to do with chance.

History is a turbulent phenomenon, thoroughly characterised by random events, but in which there nevertheless appear to be deeper constancies. In turbulent flow, such as smoke rising from a cigarette, chance events can grow to produce great waves and eddies in a quite unpredictable fashion. Yet all streams of smoke look essentially the same. This is like history. Chance events are very significant, but only so far as surface appearances are concerned. Beneath the surface, there are deep, invariant properties. Those invariants can be discovered operating in the last five thousand years of human experience. They can reliably be applied to the understanding of future events. It may not be possible to predict the financial rankings of different countries a thousand years from now, or even what countries will be in existence. Yet it is possible to predict that major changes of fortune will continue to occur. The great contemporary configurations of wealth and power will play themselves out, like whorls of smoke, to be replaced by others that are exactly the same though different in every detail.


Another way to remind us of history's rhyme. He seems to be saying that predicting the outcome is a lot more difficult than predicting the turmoil. There a many individuals working to meet the needs og peak oil, but the ransition will require communal acceptance of alternatives. The same is true for "wealth", and the scramble for power retention is sure to accompany any transition from "oil addiction".

GoldiloxU.S. corn trade war inches closer#1424873/16/06; 05:53:23


Subsidies south of the border could force Ottawa to impose final tariffs

OTTAWA -- Ottawa moved closer yesterday to a trade war with Washington over U.S. farm subsidies that could see long-term tariffs on grain corn imports -- a measure opponents warn could drive up the cost of everything from tortilla chips to livestock feed.

Critics caution it could prompt a backlash from the U.S. government and lead to retaliatory tariffs on Canadian products.

Yesterday the Canadian Border Services Agency rendered a final decision on imports of U.S. corn, saying its probe found unprocessed grain corn is being subsidized and dumped in Canada at cut-rate prices.

Hearings begin Monday in Ottawa on whether Canadian corn growers are being injured by U.S. imports. They will determine, by mid-April, whether Ottawa moves ahead with the trade conflict.

Canadian hog and cattle farmers could be among those hit hardest if Ottawa doesn't change course.


So much for the opening of trade barriers . . .

OvSGrab that ag & statfest.#1424883/16/06; 05:53:51

Taking a look at early
morning kittycat graphs,
someone has a very firm
order to grab all offered
at 10.18 spot, no matter
how much is offered. The
shorts must be sweating
Usul. Your statfest is
really magical. When it
works, statistics is really
wonderful and very often it
does work. As you know, the
hedging crowd uses these
models to death; but, then,
a free-floating spec of
golddust settles upon the
computer disc, usually at a
strategic moment, and the
magic turns into quackmire.

canamamiRandom thoughts/questions re housing bubble#1424893/16/06; 09:03:04

Do Canada and the US permit large scale immigration (legal and illegal) to prevent the housing bubble from collapsing?

When (or if) the housing bubble bursts, individuals' excess liquidity and savings must go somewhere. If debt is monetized - government gets out of it by printing money - some of that money must go to gold. If the government bites the bullet and allows bankruptcies and deflation, money must go to gold as an affordable hard asset which is not dependent on a solvent counterparty.

GoldiloxImmigration#1424903/16/06; 10:18:02

@ canamami,

What percentage of early immigrants would you think are "homeowers"?

I think, more likely, the main effects are keeping wages low and juicing consumption.

SmeagolStatlisst#1424913/16/06; 10:29:50

That is a nifty thing, Usul precious!


geMonthly gold prices since 1971 in various currencies#1424923/16/06; 11:07:25

GoldiloxLatest Refi commercial#1424933/16/06; 11:13:58

"I just refinanced my home and consolidated my credit card balances. It just feels nice to know I am 'out of debt'."


GoldiloxWhen $8 Trillion Isn't Enough#1424943/16/06; 11:35:06

THE GOVERNMENT, Treasury Secretary John W. Snow informed Congress last week, has now taken "all prudent and legal actions" to avoid bumping up against the debt ceiling. The limit, Mr. Snow told lawmakers, will need to be raised from its current level: $8,184,000,000,000. If you aren't used to deciphering that parade of zeros, let us translate for you: $8.184 trillion isn't enough. The administration is asking for an additional $781 billion.

The inevitable increase will be the fourth such hike in five years, for a total rise in the national credit limit of more than $3 trillion. During his time in office, President Bush has presided over a 46 percent increase in the federal debt, from about $5.6 trillion. By contrast, during President Bill Clinton's two terms, the debt grew from less than $4 trillion to $5.6 trillion, a 28 percent increase -- and during the last few years of his presidency, Mr. Clinton actually began to pay down the country's "real" debt, that is, debt held by the public, as opposed to the IOUs in Social Security and other government accounts.


The debt-berg has grown almost 50% since the NeoCons came to court. If that's not hyperbolic, I challenge anyone to explain why.

The DOW is hovering at 11,200, giving the appearance of spport at 2000 highs. HAHAHAHA! Even using their hedonically adjusted inflation numbers, it would ned to be 13,700 according to George Ure. To match currency and debt inflation, it would need to be about 16-17K, JUST TO TREAD WATER!

GoldiloxWorld Gold Price#1424953/16/06; 11:41:22

@ ge,

Great page. It shows how gold has progressed on world markets, leaving US$, Euro, and Yen behind, as their devaluation overshadows that of other currencies.

It seems "bugger thy neighbors currency" is more rampant in the majors.

geIranian oil bourse hits wall#1424963/16/06; 11:57:44

Thanks Goldilox. According to the attached link, Iranian oil bourse has been postponed. I get the impression that lots of talking is being done in smoke filled backrooms. I wonder whether we shall be informed after the handshaking ceremony is finished.
canamamiReply to Goldilox#1424973/16/06; 12:05:09

In both Canadian cities in which I have lived, many of the immigrants appeared to buy homes within a reasonable amount of time (many immigrants are rich, especially from certain source countries). Real estate values have always moved up when these cities have had a high influx of immigration.

Also, perhaps I should have said real estate bubble instead of housing bubble. People do have to be housed. The more people, the more need for housing. Even illegals and refugees on welfare are housed, compliments of social assistance, etc., which in turn supports the banks and developers who build, administer and finance the apartments. The expanding pool of real estate helps to soak up excess liquidity. If immigration were cut back, this would trigger the real estate bust, and all that would flow from that.

Flatlinermisc#1424983/16/06; 12:07:12

Thanks for the great laugh Goldilox! Everyone here knows that mortgage debt is just gold investment capital thus it's really not… debt.

It's interesting to see CB news regarding gold reserves this morning ( I haven't heard it spelt out specifically here in a while, but this type of news seems to support the gold trail and the movements towards Freegold.

Thanks ge for the link yesterday ( It read something like: "Russian oil exchange to launch in late 2006 – minister…MOSCOW, March 15 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's economic development and trade minister said Wednesday that an oil futures exchange would be opened in Russia in the second half of 2006."

"German Gref told a government session that the Economic Development and Trade Ministry and the country's antimonopoly bodies were to complete work on necessary documentation in the first half of 2006."

Being a Bambi to this great concept of saving and making lots of money by holding physical gold (and those other non-reserve metals), I have to ask those way down the trail ahead of me if this type of news has been common over the last 5-7 years. Specifically, do countries announce that they will be opening futures exchanges all the time? I just wonder.

Declines in world markets don't seem to hit the headlines. That's really too bad for those blindly trust others with their investments. Having been cut by the two-edged sword of margin, the ramifications of market declines will be felt everywhere in one way or another. My guess would be that profits will be moved from one market to cover losses in another. That might not help the robust US bank account known as "The Market."

Thanks Gandalf the White for the exciting guessing game. Can't help but smile for everyone there.

Buy gold. Fear not. Gold ownership, and the values for which it stands, is the path to freedom.

FlatlinerHey, what's wrong with holding a dollar?#1424993/16/06; 12:47:59

It's not like anything changed from yesterday.
GoldiloxRE vs. consumption#1425003/16/06; 12:52:46

@ canamami,

Here on the Southern US border, RE prices are averaging about $0.5M per unit, and the border is pretty porous for laborer classes, so they are probably not potential buyers.

I will give you that influxes also affect RE from the consumption side, bouying rental numbers.

Good points you mention.

GoldiloxGold refuses to quit winning streak#1425013/16/06; 13:08:49


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed higher Thursday to extend its winning streak tally to four sessions as analysts remained upbeat about the precious metal's ability to reach the $600-an-ounce level.

"The U.S. dollar counter-trend rally is over and a resumption of the secular bear market is under way," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

"This and geopolitical news out of the Middle East are the fuel for a run to $600."

On Thursday, the dollar moved broadly lower after a Labor Department report showed that U.S. core consumer-price inflation remains benign, dampening expectations over how high U.S. interest rates might go.

Against this backdrop, gold for April delivery closed up $1 at $555.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's its highest-ending level since March 6, and prices have now tallied a four-session gain of $14.10. Prices had earlier tapped a session low of $548.

"Profits are fine, but who really wants to close the books on the short side of the market before any weekend?" asked Jon Nadler, an investment products analyst at bullion dealers

"The scale of U.S. deficits, growing impact of oil-driven inflation and rising investor interest within gold and the precious complex seem set to take us to $600 and beyond within the foreseeable future," said James Moore, an analyst at

Meanwhile, May silver closed at $10.342 an ounce, down 0.8 cents after reaching a high on Wednesday of $10.395 an ounce, the highest futures price level since at least 1984.
"The fast-paced moves seen recently in the silver market look set to continue for the foreseeable future with the launch of new ETF [exchange-traded fund] products likely to further the metals upside potential," Moore wrote in a note to clients.

The silver market will likely see a rally to $12.50 "in the not-too-distant future," he said.

In other metals action, June palladium lost $2.95 to close at $315.35 an ounce following a rally of more than $12 in the previous session, while April platinum added $1.60 to finish at $1,030.60 an ounce. May copper closed 1.5 cents higher at $2.2655 a pound.

On the supply side, inventories of copper fell 276 short tons to 30,957 short tons as of late Wednesday, according to Nymex.
Gold inventories fell 164 troy ounces to 7.53 million troy ounces and silver supplies stood at 126.1 million troy ounces, unchanged from the previous session.

canamamiGoldilox - Thx for reply#1425023/16/06; 13:22:29

It's good to hear the situation in other parts of the continent.
spikedogRe: Goldilox and Refi#1425033/16/06; 15:44:53

That was outstanding; must be part of the new economy.

BTW, congrats to the contest winners. Nice work! It looks like the rest of us have been winning as well this week. To the Moon!

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1425043/16/06; 16:04:59">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

THURSDAY Market Excerpts

Gold enjoys fourth-straight session gain

March 16 (from DowJones) -- Comex gold prices see-sawed between positive and negative territories on Thursday at the New York Mercantile Exchange as the yellow metal reacted to U.S. economic news, profit-taking and a U.S. air strike in Iraq.

Most-active April gold settled $1.00 higher at $555.40.

Early in the session the contract pushed to a $557.60-an-ounce high in reaction to a softer-than-expected U.S. core consumer price index that took the euro to a fresh six-week high versus the dollar.

But some profit-taking moved in and the yellow metal fell into negative territory, hitting a session low of $548.10. Later news of a large U.S. air strike in Iraq prompted the metal to move higher and finish the day nearly unchanged.

"Renewed buying interest and the news about the U.S. military launching its biggest air offensive in Iraq since the 2003 invasion of the country helped the metal to recover," said analysts at MKS Finance.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

The Invisible HandTo challenge the dollar, the ECB must inflate#1425053/16/06; 16:08:12

SNIP from
ge (3/16/06; 11:57:44MT - msg#: 142496)' link

"For the euro to begin to challenge the reserve role of the U.S. dollar, a virtual revolution in policy would have to take place in Euroland," Mr. Engdahl wrote. "First the European Central Bank . . . would have to surrender power to elected legislators. It would then have to turn on the printing presses and print euros like there was no tomorrow."
A full challenge to the U.S. dollar as the world central bank reserve currency, Mr. Engdahl added later, would entail a "de facto declaration of war on the 'full-spectrum dominance' of the United States today," and that is something no country or group of countries is yet willing to launch.

TownCrierGold Doesn't Fear a Fed Rate-Hike Pause#1425063/16/06; 16:19:34

By Nick Godt, Markets Reporter
3/16/2006 -- Gold closed higher on Thursday despite a CPI report and other data that convinced many inflation is not a problem and the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates sooner than later.

But gold, which serves as a hedge against inflation, still found cause to rally. ... The result: Gold for April delivery gained $1 to $555.40 per ounce, marking its fourth straight session of upside for a total gain of $14.10.

The metal's advance didn't do much for gold mining stocks, which have remained depressed since gold took a corrective turn in February.

Wither M3?

There's more to the story behind gold's resilience than apparently tame inflation. Gold bugs love a good conspiracy theory and they actually have a fairly convincing one.

The CPI, many gold bugs believe, is not to be trusted. A real gauge of inflation, they argue, is M3, which is the largest measure of the money supply. And guess what? That weekly measure, which used to rock the bond and stock markets in the 1970s, is about to be scrapped on March 23.

The explanation on the Fed's Web site reads: "M3 does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in M2 and has not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years. Consequently, the Board judged that the costs of collecting the underlying data and publishing M3 outweigh the benefits."

If you ask gold bugs, however, the Fed is trying to hide something. M3 includes the smaller measures of the money supply such as M1 and M2 plus large time deposits, institutional money market accounts, and Eurodollar deposits of U.S. banks held at foreign branches and at all U.S. offices. While the first two measures are mostly held by the public, M3 is about putting "money into the system," writes David Chapman, director of the Millennium Bullion Fund.

The first leg of today's inflationary environment, he says, started when former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan cut rates in the early 1990s to stave off a recessionary environment, Chapman says. The latest leg came after the Fed cut rates to historical lows after the bursting of the tech bubble and the 9/11 attacks. Since 1995, M1 has risen 18.8%, M2 is up 89.5%, and M3 has increased a stunning 130%, Chapman notes.

"The Fed has been running a well managed hyperinflationary environment," says John Strafford, a gold analyst and editor of The Strafford Newsletter. "They must inflate or die."

But why remove M3 now?

Iran was expected to launch an exchange next week to start trading it oil in euros instead of dollars. Given current geopolitical tensions, a possible huge rush out of dollars would occur, and that would have hit M3 the most. A sharp drop in M3 has typically been seen as presaging recession, and markets would have panicked, says Chapman.

Meanwhile, it seems that Iran's launch of the bourse has been delayed until April, according to Platt's Commodity News.

^---(from url)---^

Are you prudently "making hay while the sun shines"? Proper diversification with gold should be a fair-weather activity so that you'll have the protection of purchasing power already in-hand and assured at such times as the climate turns more troubling than at present.

Call the friendly brokers at USAGOLD-Centennial for professional assistance and best prices on all the gold you'll need to put your portfolio upon a firm foundation of tangible, reliable wealth.


Flatliner@To challenge the dollar#1425073/16/06; 16:40:48

I'm hoping someone can shed a little light on the comment made by Mr. Engdahl. I'm not familiar with this guys writings, thus I'm not sure how to interpret the comment. It appears that he's saying, fairly clearly, that the willy-nilly printing of euros will not occur. There is no country that will stand up against the dollar and, basically, declare financial war against the US. Also, the way the Euro system is setup doesn't lend itself to this type of direct challenge.

Is that reasonable? I would tend also to agree and I would go a step further to say that I don't believe that the Euro wants to be the world reserve currency. It seems to me that they have made that very clear by making (tada!) gold the money they have chosen as the reserve currency. One just has to read the daily postings to see that CBs all around the world are, in their own little way, working towards changing their reserve currency.

Actually, it seems that countries are giving their citizens a choice as to what currency they want. This is a very interesting change of context for the world. I hope the US can safely handle the transition.

TownCrierFlatliner,#1425083/16/06; 17:15:03

I concur where you "go a step further" to say what many others (Engdahl included) are unable to see and/or say for themselves.

You can see my simple thoughts are in agreement with yours in my comments posted Tuesday early morning:

TownCrier (3/14/06; 01:20:52MT - msg#: 142411)

Click link and scroll to near bottom.


TownCrierHow "well-rounded" is YOUR portfolio??#1425093/16/06; 17:33:59

Click URL for graphic inspiration and guidance.

If you think it looks good "on paper", just wait until you've felt the weight of tangible wealth in you own hand -- you'll be reluctant to settle your savings into anything less.


Flatliner@No reserve Euro#1425103/16/06; 18:22:37

I wonder how long it's going to take the world to figure out that there is only one way to escape the US Dollar?

For some reason, it feels like it's gotten ominously quiet, as if the music just stopped and everyone is looking for the chairs and not finding them. It's as if everyone has been expecting a shipload of Euro chairs that would provide enough value for all tangible things, but it has not arrived. And, if they look at the shipping records, they will find that no trip was ever booked and those in Euro land never had any plans on shipping any chairs out into the world.

The most interesting part about this is that we are witnessing the world's adoption of gold as the new world reserve currency. This adoption is in play. Every CB in the world knows what is coming but their hands are politically tied and their lips are sealed. They can not outright stand up against Uncle Sam. And they know that they do not need too. Time is on their side. It's just a matter of waiting. At some point, any of a million different catalysts could fire to start the stampede.

Meanwhile, those whose eyes are open will see that there are a million different reasons to find a way to put their savings in gold. Investors that do the math between a fixed amount of gold and the amount of value that must be matched in order for gold to function as a world reserve currency will find that the small amount of gold will absorb a virtually unbelievable number of dollars!

BeamerTowncrier - How 'well rounded'#14251103/16/06; 18:33:26

An interesting contest would be the price of all those beautiful coins displayed in your link. Especially those which are hidden underneath the pile. A real challenge indeed. The closest guess wins. A typical question would be, 'Would you take this beautiful pile of gold coins or the equivalent weight in gold and qualify the answer with a why?'.
FlatlinerWorld reserve#1425123/16/06; 18:57:11

Today, in order to meet demand on the US dollar as the world reserve currency, the US must print it as fast as they can.

Tomorrow, (figuratively speaking, of course), in order to meet demand on gold as the world reserve currency, the price will go up.

Mthirsty1Winners#1425133/16/06; 19:04:55

Congratulations to the winners of the contest.I have not been around for the past week due to Nascar racing in Vegas,(the next best thing to gold)and did not have any knowledge of what was going on in the real world.It's nice to do that sometimes.We just got home today and it was nice to see it has been a good week for gold.Again,congrat's to the winners.
R PowellSome opinions + news from GFMS#1425143/16/06; 19:08:00

Physicalman.....I'm glad you have recuperated. We are all mortal but sometimes it takes a real scare to remind us that our time is severely limited. I'm happy to hear you're still with us!

Of course, yes, you are entitled to spend your own money however you see fit. At least, I believe this is still okay. I don't believe the government has changed this yet. Now that I think of it, wasn't it McTeer, head of one of the Fed. Reserve Banks (Texas?) who advocated that we all buy new vehicles? Enjoy the ride.

PRITCHOHow Much Is A Billion ? - - - From Yesterdays Richard Russells Comments - -#1425153/16/06; 19:17:16

Some interesting comments about the word "billion".
From Hylee F. Kemp

Subject: A billion here, a billion there...

Here's something thought provoking -

The next time you hear a politician use the word "billion" in a casual manner,think about whether you want the
"politicians" spending your tax money.

A billion is a difficult number to comprehend, but one advertising agency did a good job of putting that figure into some perspective in one of its releases.

a.. A billion seconds ago it was 1959.

b.. A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive.

c.. A billion hours ago our ancestors were living in the Stone Age.

d.. A billion days ago no-one walked on the earth on two feet.

e.. A billion dollars ago was only 8 hours and 20 minutes, at the rate our government is spending it.

PRITCHOFrom Richard Russell - - - - Latest Comments March 16th, 2006#1425163/16/06; 19:23:23

I'ts a sad state of affairs BUT -at least those looking outside of the mainstream media are getting a "Heads Up"

What about the declining purchasing power of the dollar? From the government's standpoint, you lie about it, and you remove evidence of it -- for instance, you kill M-3 and stay with that absurd "core inflation" numbers. From the consumer's standpoint -- make as much money as you can in order to offset the decline in the dollar's purchasing power. Which is why people are still in this overpriced stock market -- it's the desperate need to produce profits.

So where are we now? Stocks are expensive, dollars are suspect but necessary for every day living, and gold pays no interest.

My answer -- hold the safest items that pay interest along with as much gold as you can afford. Stay out of debt, live within your means, and exercise patience. Interesting opportunities will emerge in due time. But right now, I don't see them.

Today -- Forget all those little well-publicized interest rates boosts by the Fed. Real rates are almost surely still negative. Fed funds are at 4.5%, but monetary inflation is probably running at 6-8%. Subscribers know what I think -- it's LIQUIDITY, not rates, that this market is feeding off of.

Today was a rarity. When was the last time you saw stocks, bonds, commodities, oil, gold, copper ALL UP on the same day. And today, the bonds and notes were up BIG TIME. The only item down hard today was the US dollar.

My bet is that Bernanke is pressing the pedal to the metal. M-3 was up $54 billion on the latest reading. We'll see what M-3 is on Friday. March 23 will be the last day in which the Fed will release the M-3 figures.

GoldiloxOT - Going for the gold - WBC#1425173/16/06; 19:23:59

Clemens and TeamUSA are locked in a 1-1 elimination game against Mexico. Bob Davidson, the ump who messed up the call that cost Japan a victory over USA has already overturned a Mexico HR, but they pushed the run across in spite of his second foible.

Mexico has runners at the corners with one out, and they have just chased the RocketMan. It's up to the Angel's Scott Shields to hold.

Oops, a slow bouncer to Jeter: 2-1 Mexico after 5 complete.

TownCrierMiscellaneous...#1425183/16/06; 20:10:58

Flatliner (msg#: 142512) -- said, "Today, in order to meet demand on the US dollar as the world reserve currency, the US must print it as fast as they can. Tomorrow, (figuratively speaking, of course), in order to meet demand on gold as the world reserve currency, the price will go up."

You have displayed a true gift of gracefully eloquent and illustrative expression. Beautifully direct and effective. And I thank you.

Beamer (msg#: 142511), -- That's a dandy idea.


GoldiloxContest idea#1425193/16/06; 21:10:23

@ Beamer,

Interesting idea, but I can't imagine why anyone would prefer straight bullion to coins that probably carry a premium. Taking the coins is a "no loss" proposition, since they are definitely worth at least "their weight in gold".

mikal@Goldilox#1425203/16/06; 21:14:25 Re: "Going for the gold"
At JS site there is a story in which 7 or so "rogue nations"
were today, again named as the greatest threat to America.
You begin to wonder whether war will recolonize resource rich nations at a time of scarcity and climbing prices for oil, metals, etc. "Going for the gold" indeed?
Iranophobia - Paul Craig Roberts - March 16, 2006
Short list of possible outcomes from current war drum beating emanating from the District of Criminality.

mikal@Beamer#1425213/16/06; 21:26:25

Re: "Would you take this beautiful pile of gold coins or an equivalent weight in gold?" After being fully invested in old semi-numismatic coins such as shown, bullion coins such as Springboks(K-Rands!), a bit of silver coin and bullion, and early European coppers, I would choose beautiful Fortuna gold BARS such as TC linked earlier!

GoldiloxJobless claims edge higher#1425223/16/06; 23:15:34


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- New applications for state unemployment benefits rose by 5,000 to 309,000 in the week ending March 11, the highest level since December, the Labor Department said Thursday.
Initial claims have risen three weeks in a row and five of the past six weeks since hitting a six-year low of 273,000 in late January.

The four-week average of new claims, which strips out one-time events such as holidays and weather, rose by 5,750 to 296,500, the highest since the second week of January. Read the full report.

Economists have been hopeful that jobless claims had reached a new plateau just under 300,000 after averaging around 320,000 for most of 2005.
Economists polled by MarketWatch expected claims to fall to about 300,000.

With initial claims now drifting higher, it's possible the low levels in January and February were due more to favorable weather than to a fundamental improvement in the labor market.

Meanwhile, the number of people continuing to collect unemployment benefits fell by 49,000 to 2.45 million, the lowest since Feb. 10, 2001.

The four-week average of continuing claims fell by about 15,000 to 2.48 million, also the lowest since February 2001.

The insured unemployment rate - the percentage of all covered workers who are receiving benefits - remained at 1.9%.

Initial claims are down about 8% since this time last year. Continuing claims are down about 7%.

Initial claims represent job destruction, while the level of continuing claims indicates how hard or easy it is for displaced workers to find new jobs.

The Invisible HandConfirmation of Global Systemic Crisis end of March 2006#1425233/17/06; 00:28:53

Written by LEAP/E2020
Friday, 17 March 2006
Nine indicators prove that the crisis is unfolding

GoldiloxNewropeans Article#1425243/17/06; 01:30:03

@ TIH,

Great post!

KnallgoldThe Newropean article#1425253/17/06; 06:21:15

If you scroll down'someone put a commentary there:

"Write Your Comments
Written by on 2006-03-17 08:55:53
Let there be "Freegold" and a gold-euro numeraire to replace the $-IMS. Let the world compete on a level playing field with a multilateral gold-euro instead of with the selfserving, unilateral $-regime. "

Sounds familiar to me!

Clink!A Tale of Two Farmers#1425263/17/06; 07:17:36

Ther's nothing like a good allegory.

Snip :-
Farmer Chang only grows oranges. Farmer Jones only grows apples. Each grows only the fruit that he produces most efficiently, trading the surplus for the fruit grown by the other. Both farmers benefit from comparative advantage and free trade. The sole reason that Farmer Chang "exports" oranges is to "import" apples, and vise-versa.

Eventually it dawns on Farmer Jones that he is eating pretty well, without actually farming. He therefore decides to turn his apple orchard into a golf course, and simply play golf all day while enjoying Farmer Chang's oranges. In other words, Farmer Jones now operates a "service economy."

End snip.

C! I won't spoil the end, but Farmer Jones' choices in the end aren't pretty.


mikalGold vs stock newsletters sentiment#1425273/17/06; 07:56:09

From sentiment point of view, gold looks better than stockmarket - Mark Hulbert - Marketwatch - March 17, 2006
Long-term comparison of stock timing newsletters and their gold counterparts positively correlated with charts of gold beating the stuffing out of stocks.

mikal@Clink#1425283/17/06; 08:03:45

Re: Golf course - Some just have to learn the hard way. Rather than playing below par, they drive into the rough
on nearly every hole.

GoldiloxBird-flu misinformation#1425293/17/06; 08:38:56

Former Sec Tommy Thompson just told CNBC that 50% of the 200 reported HN51 cases have died. While this seems pretty ominous, a larger picture view should include the fact that most of these case reports have come from locales where visiting the doctor is a 'crisis only" experience. This suggests that those who may have the flu but are not near death are not counted in the statistics.

Not downplaying the lethality itself, the statistical base is poor, at best, and those, like Thompson, who communicate them are completely ignoring the poor quality of their own statistical base in the rush to sell the governement a few $billion of Tamiflu.

Disinformation is perhaps too strong, but relying on bad statistical evidence certainly qualifies as "misinformation".

R PowellApples or golf course...?#1425303/17/06; 08:40:52

Here where I live in New England, golf courses make gazillions of dollars, most houses near them are priced at a million $$ or more. I have worked on many, and some such housing communities require home buyers to purchase yearly course memberships, whether you play golf or not. These often start at $50,000/year and do not include food + drink. Apple orchards are located in "the country" where land is much, much cheaper than it is in densely populated areas.

Basically, if Farmer Jones' golf course is successful, he'll make much more than he ever did growing apples. Then, if he's an honest man, he can honor his apple IOUs with apples purchased elsewhere or simply honor them for cash, no? Hey, maybe he charges in physical gold for the use of his golf course, then he'd be able to buy back the apple IOUs for gold.

One of the first great advances in economic terms was the division of labor. This raised the standard of living for everyone involved + necessitated a means of exchange, money. This is basic economics, we know this! Why can't apple IOUs be paid back with cash from the golf course profits? I pay the plumber with money, he doesn't have to wait until he needs a concrete floor to be repaid!

GoldiloxGolf vs. apples#1425313/17/06; 09:00:31


But when times get tough, those golf balls are a bit crunchy and offer little food value.

It reminds me of Forrest Gump, who parlayed his shrimp profits into a fruit company called "Apple". I love my iBook, but I keep a supply of the cruchy variety handy, as well.

Similarly, I pay my bills with FIAT, but keep a stock of "real" money, just in case I need it.

Clink!Golf#1425323/17/06; 09:20:58

Rich, what you say is perfectly true as long as you stay in the limited world of a single farm. The only way for the apple IOU's to balance the oranges is if Farmer Chang wants to pay for golf using apple IOUs. But country clubs are probably very snooty about who they let play, and I don't think they would invite him to join. From what we have seen in the news recently, it's even difficult to use apple IOUs to buy that house (real asset as part of the farm) on the fairway (Think Unocal & DPW).

KnallgoldIOB#1425333/17/06; 09:21:28

So if the Iranian oil bourse is indeed postponed,you would expect the oil price to increase again,especially in the light of the US M3 cessation(=more $ inflation),no?I'm assuming the other follow up bourses on the oil for euro deal (Norway,Russia,xy) aren't ready as well.

How high an oil price can we handle?Those 70-100$/barrel mentioned?What if too high prices destroy the power of the oil cartel forever,ie the west going alternative with full conviction?Now watch the Uranium price,its now at 40$ (upper left at the link),it appears to be in an up-only mode.

We live in interesting times!

SundeckUS spends its way to 28 Eiffel towers: made out of pure gold#1425343/17/06; 09:40:35,,11069-2090441,00.html


The vote to increase the debt limit, requested by the White House, is the fourth since Mr Bush took office. In 2001 the national debt was $5.7 trillion. Today it has ballooned to $8.2 trillion, figures rarely talked about in Washington.


Is roughly four times Britain's GDP

Equates to $1,500 for every man, woman and child in the world

Would buy all the tea in China. In fact it would buy all the tea in the world for the next 2,000 years.

Is enough to solve the Palestinian crisis by rehousing every Israeli and Palestinian family in a £1.5m detached house in Henley-on-Thames

Would build 28 Eiffel Towers — constructed out of gold.


Sundeck: is not strong enough to make Eiffel towers...but I nit-pick...

A trillion here, a trillion there...pretty soon we are talking UNreal money...if we aren't already!


R PowellClink#1425353/17/06; 10:07:29

"Rich, what you say is perfectly true as long as you stay in the limited world of a single farm. The only way for the apple IOU's to balance the oranges is if Farmer Chang wants to pay for golf using apple IOUs."

Isn't this the same as saying that everyone must balance (pay) all debts by barter of goods + services? Would the farmer also pay for fertilizer, insurance, electricity, clothing etc. ONLY with apples??

I believe your notion is the one "in the limited world". It's a world of barter which works fine except for determining how many apples or oranges are required to buy clothing, insurance, gasoline, etc. It gets cumbersome, no. Why not use, as Goldilox says, fiat to ease commerce. And, yes, will all know depreciating currencies are not a safe place to store wealth, but I'd hate to have to pay all my bills by an exchange of my labor without the convenience of money. Btw, I will pour + finish concrete in exchange for gold or silver. 8>)

FlatlinerBeamer's question#1425363/17/06; 10:09:13

Beamer: 'Would you take this beautiful pile of gold coins or the equivalent weight in gold and qualify the answer with a why?'

To a coin collector, the thought of pure gold is like a canvas that carries no paint. But, to the mint, it is the canvas on which to create the fine and valued art. Both have value that is above and beyond its gold price. Choose carefully as to your usage and reap the rewards that follow.

Clink!Not to start comparing apples with oranges, but ....#1425373/17/06; 10:57:24

"Isn't this the same as saying that everyone must balance (pay) all debts by barter of goods + services? Would the farmer also pay for fertilizer, insurance, electricity, clothing etc. ONLY with apples??"

Sure, if that's all he produced. But that's not the point of the story. The situation here is "what happens if he doesn't produce enough apples to cover his purchases?" He produces IOUs which will eventually be called.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.CPM -- Since 1973. Proven Reliability, Longevity, Quality and Professionalism ---- Transact with Confidence!!#1425383/17/06; 12:00:26

TownCrierBelarus central bank to increase gold reserves#1425393/17/06; 12:46:20

17 Mar 2006 -- The National Bank of Belarus plans to set up a gold reserve of at least 32 tonnes of gold equivalent by 2011, a source in the main precious metals and stones department at the National Bank of Belarus told Interfax.

The National Bank expects that in 2010 gold and forex reserves will amount to $3 billion. The National Bank's gold reserve amounts to 25.02 tonnes of gold equivalent, compared with 4.41 tonnes in 2001.

^---(from url)---^

A few more steps upon the 'Trail'.


TownCrierAlmost silly#1425403/17/06; 13:14:43

March 17 (Reuters) -
...Silver has risen on hopes that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission might soon approve a silver exchange-traded fund proposed last year by Barclay Global Investors.

Traders are accumulating positions on thoughts that the ETF, which would be backed by physical silver, will gobble up much of the available metal supply and help boost demand and prices in the market.


Are there some speculators pushing for Barclays next to arrange for a pie ETF to gobble up much of the available pie supply so that a night out for dinner with dessert becomes more valuable?


968Polyus to deliver 10 tonnes gold to Credit Suisse in 2006 #1425413/17/06; 13:35:42

MOSCOW. March 17 (Interfax) - Polyus has received a Russian Economic Development and Trade Ministry license for the direct export of 10 tonnes of gold in 2006, Russia's No.1 gold producer said in a statement.
Polyus will export the gold under a contract for that amount of gold with Credit Suisse.
Payment for the gold will be at the London bullion market fixing.
Polyus sold 15 tonnes of gold to Credit Suisse in 2005, so sales to the foreign bank could fall 5 tonnes this year unless new contracts are signed.
"The domestic market is shaping up very well now. Russian banks are buying more gold on much better terms than in 2005, which is why Polyus is not exporting quite as much gold this year," the company quoted
Yevgeny Ivanov, its president, as saying.
But direct export contracts are enabling Polyus to build a reputation as a dependable supplier and attract financing on more lucrative terms in the future, he said.
Russia's Polymetal and Britain's peter Hambro Mining, which produces gold in Russia, also export precious metals under direct licenses.
So, why are Russian banks buying gold from Polyus ??? Any thoughts ?

OvSSundeck!#1425423/17/06; 13:41:22

I wouldn't mind buying up
the China futures tea pro-
duction with that kind of
money; but resettle the
Middle East in Oxfordshire?
Your mother-in-law living
there??? Hello, Belgian.
We are missing you around
here. So I'll be a little
bit controversial to keep
me going.. :-) OvS

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1425433/17/06; 14:17:46">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

FRIDAY Market Excerpts

Gold up 2.5% for week

March 17 (from DowJones) -- Comex gold made little moves on Friday at the New York Mercantile Exchange and settled nearly flat after reaching a fresh two-week high of $558.60 an ounce earlier in the session. The most-active April contract settled 30-cents lower at $555.10. After the bounce to the highs, the April contract appeared sluggish and traded in a sideways manner, traders said. "It was such a quiet day and there was nothing going on to move this market," said Leonard Kaplan of Prospector Asset Management. Other analysts said gold continued to consolidate in a tight range as the market "remained boring throughout the whole session." "The only relevant point is that physical demand from Asia and the Middle East is emerging on any price dip," said analysts at MKS Finance.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

Topazalt-Gold#1425443/17/06; 14:18:54

Things took a turn for the worst on Thur with our alt- Currencies, or more specifically the Euro, giving PoG a pasting and the Au-Ag ratio pretty well flatlining.

Ag's Sabre-toothing this week looked like a "paper sell-metal buy" thing. Could be a precursor of much grander flight to the "here and now" of Cash-Metal in the very near future?
We'll see!

FlatlinerHow long has it been?#1425453/17/06; 15:10:49

Since the US and Iran publicly had a face to face? And, my goodness, look at the timing. Yesterday noble ge helped us with (msg#: 142496) which reads "Iranian oil bourse hits wall
Thanks Goldilox." It says, "According to the attached link, Iranian oil bourse has been postponed. I get the impression that lots of talking is being done in smoke filled backrooms. I wonder whether we shall be informed after the handshaking ceremony is finished."

Ge also pointed us to ( It read something like: "Russian oil exchange to launch in late 2006 – minister…MOSCOW, March 15 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's economic development and trade minister said Wednesday that an oil futures exchange would be opened in Russia in the second half of 2006.""

Is there a big picture here? An elevation of status maybe for Iran? Exposure that it's really Russia that wants the exchange? Or is it that all countries appose the US but none are willing to go it alone?

It looks like Iran will not be publicly supporting the means for other countries to trade oil for Euros. I would guess that all countries will have to continue to do this privately. But the underlying issue has not gone away.

Reading between the lines, one would expect that if one can't appose the system with public options, one will turn to private options. As ge has concluded, you might expect high oil prices and that the excess from those sales will find their way into gold. What other choice do they have?

Cometosegoldilox/ Tamiflu#1425463/17/06; 18:09:40

sounds like something they might serve at Neverland resort

very esoteric sounding .....catchy ..........

upscale .......

marketing ........GLITZ.......

Only it kills japanese ..................

So when the oriental population contracts the disease........ (Chinese) and they recieve our tamiflu virus fighter........It will kill them off.........

GOOD JOB..............

Cure is worse than the disease........

and looks like it's been engineered specifically for
our EASTERN FRIENDS.........

Slap my mouth !!!!!

Wonder so many microbioligists met their untimely deaths last year...............

NO one left to prove the unthinkable in a laboratory setting .....

Cometosesundeck / 28 Eiffel Towers.................#1425473/17/06; 18:15:06

You put in perspective for all of us out of balance we have become with regard to the current fiat regime .. and almost up 40% since Bush took office....

might just blow the lid off the precious metals and
many thanks to our Indian friends and Chinese friends who have picked this time to renovate their world ..........
and save in GOLD AND SILVER..........

CometoseUP 40% #1425483/17/06; 18:15:54

the debt
Cometosegoldilox/ Tamiflu#1425493/17/06; 18:17:11

should have read "kills Japanese children"
ToolieTownie -- msg#: 142539#1425503/17/06; 18:25:37

Any idea of what is meant where your article states "25.02 tonnes of gold equivalent" ?

What is this gold equivalent stuff? Is that like farmer Chang's not so yummy apple equivalent IOU's?

The problem with Farmer Jones behavior, as I see it was in counterfeiting apples -- benefiting noone but farmer Jones.

Is Belarus stuck with counterfeit (paper) gold?

Knallgold – I think you're right. Good to think he's still around.

ToolieCome to think of it...#1425513/17/06; 18:35:26

It takes a lot of nerve for the US to accuse the Chinese of counterfeiting our products. When our entire economy is built on counterfeiting money.
Ten BearsMOSQUES, CIVIL WAR, OIL & GOLD#1425523/17/06; 20:15:20

>"As a preface, the Iranian Oil Exchange will not set up shop in March 2006. The exchange for Central Asian energy product sale, will not go into operation, will not come to pass, at least not anytime soon, and certainly not this month. My reliable sources traceable to London tell me that Iranian mullahs and clergy entrenched in high office have decided they do not wish to relinquish their corrupt siphon from vast energy sales into their personal accounts"

by Jim Willie CB
March 2, 2006

Willie's information appears to be entirely accurate.

Clink!Those old pennies ....#1425533/17/06; 20:19:16

On a day when copper closed at yet another all-time high, I thought I would recalculate the melt value of pennies. Pre-1982 now stands at 1.54cents, and even the current one now stands at 0.63cents. Just as a comparison, I first started posting these numbers on 1/22/04, when the corresponding values were 0.74c and 0.26c respectively. Actually, it is zinc that has gone up more than copper. So how long before the penny is discontinued, I wonder. Or they start going back to using aluminum wiring.

Ten BearsWillie#1425543/17/06; 20:20:38

SundeckIran oil exchange, the US and the dollar#1425553/18/06; 00:40:32

Ref Flatliner #142545

As time goes by, the global monetary situation, energy situation and political situation appear to be becoming more confused. Part of this, I suspect, is because the US is now no longer such a credible leader in any of these three domains as it once was:

1. Energy. Sixty years ago, US domestic oil supply was pivotal in the allied victories in both Europe and the Pacific campaignes. After WWII, the US "won the peace" by its actions in assisting to rebuild Europe and Japan, and acting as the counterweight to the USSR; leading to 60 years of relative international stability underpinned by "easy energy". Now, the US is becoming energy-starved, with its enormous infrastructure and social and cultural paradigm "hooked" on oil...but now much of the oil must come from abroad and from regions where the US is not particularly held in very high esteem.

2. Political situation. A domestically "very savvy" Administration successfully wormed its way to power for two terms on emotive domestic agendas and hubris. Unfortunately, internationally, the Bush Administration has probably been the worst America has ever had. International political capital has been burned and trampled on several fronts. Now an aimless, schizophrenic, internationally and domestically "lame-duck" administration wobbles along looking for ways to save face, on the one hand, and exert initiative and force on the other. Other international governments are put in the position of having to work with this deranged giant while knowing that it is essentially floundering around. No other nation, or group of nations, is able to "take the lead" while-ever the US refuses to relinquish it, but it seems to me that headless chickens have more sense of direction than has the Bush Administration at present.

3. Monetary. The US is caught in the dilemma of wanting a "strong" currency on one hand to preserve its internationally dominant monetary and financial position ("dollar hegemony"), earned in WWII (??) and maintained in one form or another for the last sixty years. On the other hand, the US wants its currency to be "weaker" so that it can better balance its books with its international competitors. Whilever oil and commodities and other international trade are invoiced in US dollars, the US currency cannot weaken "sensibly" because it is expected to serve two purposes that are in conflict: (a) settle international trade arrangements, leading to the international demand for and the subsequent creation of dollars, and a "value level", that have nothing to do with internal domestic requirements or state of the domestic economy, and (b) act as a domestic currency for internal trade and, via normal exchange, for external purchases. If function (a) wasn't required, then the US dollar would be just like any other domestic currency and would likely weaken in line with the pressures imposed by the twin deficits. But external demand for the dollar keeps it "strong". So, in addition to The Administration being schizophrenic in its intentions and desires, the dollar itself is similarly afflicted.

I suspect that these three broad factors are leading to the on-again, off-again proposals and "actions" by various countries; like the Iranian Oil Bourse, Russian and Norwegian suggestions of oil bourses, Iranian enrichment of uranium on Russian soil. There is "cheekiness", coupled with uncertainty and caution amongst many players as the US giant, once so purposeful and credible and imposing, now teters around in a somewhat confused state.

I think these three factors are also leading to the trends by countries' central banks to move more towards gold and the Euro for reserves. There has been enormous "investment" in the dollar over the years...not just investment in the usual sense, but "dependence" upon the dollar's machinery and its role in providing a kind of "gradually inflating stability" in international monetary affairs. This is becoming "lumpy", but no-one wants the dollar's demise demise to happen too quickly...while the US somehow wants to have its cake and eat it as well.

These three factors also accentuate, and to some extent permit, the "rise of China", the resurgence of India and the merging consortium of nations in South America.

The US has done a lot of "heavy lifting" over the years, militarily, culturally, economically, financially...but even giants eventually grow tired. It is perhaps ironic, and unfortunate, that the US, at this time, has an Aministration that is so ill-suited to the demands of the era...when the US is so clearly at the cross-roads of history and in need of sensitive re-alignment to the new world order.



BoilermakerSundeck msg#: 142555#1425563/18/06; 06:41:25

Excellent appraisal sir! I have become convinced that only the total failure of the US economy can lead to the emergence of sensible government.


Goldilox"Appraisal"#1425573/18/06; 09:07:29

@ Boilermaker and Sundeck,

A fair appraisal, true.

A few siilar observations.

1) While I agree on most fronts, my assessment of the poitical is that the US is suffering from "withdrawal symptoms". Years of covert drug and arms trade and overt alcohol abuse, for which TPTB are completely complicit, have taken a huge social toll. Another schizoid manifestation is "intellegence agencies" that double as illegal revenue centers for arms and drug trades. Politicians jawbone about drug problems and remove a few token small dealers from circulation, but the main supply lines remain intact because they are politically "connected". On the arms front, they publicly decry the very potentates they arm for personal profit.

2) Uncontrolled immigration, another schizoid policy, concerns many people on the security front, but remains a powerful labor tool for the battle against inflation by the corporate oligarchs.

3) Technology, often touted as the best possible tool for evolutionary solutions, is stifled and minimized so that's its potential for disrupting current monoplies is held in check. Serious exploration into alternatives is never well funded, and often suffers public derision.

Truly schizoid leadership, indeed, headed by a bunch whose own drug and alcohol history is poorly documented and sometimes suspect. On top of that, leadership at government supply firms often joke that their best negotiators are the ones who can "drink a general under the table".

The sad irony is that the liberal, progressive "peace movement" of the 60's fell prey to the same drug and alcohol affinity that now plagues the "war camps" of the far right, who mask their addiction issues in the robes of orthodoxy.

I share Boilermaker's concern that wake-up may require some level of collapse, but sadly, outside the hallowed halls of Wall St, that collapse is already apparent to many, who are just waiting for the "Day of Financial Reckoning."

Goldiloxcorrection#1425583/18/06; 10:55:38

"siilar" S/B "similar"
Flatliner@Sundeck#1425593/18/06; 11:29:22

Building upon your categories, would one be correct in saying that we have a political situation where energy is controlled for the service of money. It seems that; he who has access to the cheapest energy is the one that makes the greatest profit and that profit buys them more control. It will be interesting to see if this circular process has a short in it somewhere. I am sure we will all see given time.
NedIranian Oil Bourse.....delayed for now.....maybe.#1425603/18/06; 11:56:29

Euros for oil delayed? Probably not for long. Great thread, thanks to Sundeck/Flatliner/Goldi.

I often think of my wife and her 5 siblings. One of the older brothers is always in financial trouble. He always manages to 'horn-swaggle' the family into a loan (he interprets loans as 'gifts'). "Lend me a couple thousand until I get settled", "I need a thousand bucks until I get organized" are standard lines. The "beggar-thy-family" always works, I admit he is smooth.

So I wonder when the family is going to have enough, I beg my wife to cut him off, "charity begins at home" is my line when the discussion gets a little heated.

So is there any similarity to the great U.S. deficit(s)? The fiscal shortfall was 5% a year or two ago, it hit 6% and 6 1/2, nothing thought it could continue. I believe it may have been Roach that mentioned it has hit 7% of GDP. When will it end? When does the "beggar-thy-neighbor" end? One, 1.5 and 2 billion a day. Now I heard recently almost 2.5 BILLION a day. It's out of control.

I found a wicked post earlier today, I'll be back........

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Is gold investment new to you?#1425613/18/06; 13:20:26">gold ownership starter kit
Flatlinervapor systems#1425623/18/06; 14:06:31

Fun reading today. I'm sure the world would welcome such a device with open arms.
NedHere's a BEAUT !!!#1425633/18/06; 16:18:31

A must read if you are looking at the BIG picture. The Iraq war, Peak Oil, the fading dollar, "end of civilization", all wrapped into one :

"People look at Bush's invasion of Iraq and see a miserable failure. But a failure to do what? Democratize Iraq? Eliminate Iraq's WMD arsenal? Reduce global terrorism? If those were, in fact, the reasons for invading Iraq, then the invasion would have to be classified as a failure. But what if the real reason was to secure Iraq's oil supplies, perhaps not for immediate use, and perhaps not even for use by the United States? Then the invasion of Iraq would have to be judged a success, a "mission accomplished," so to speak."


"Now, I'm just one person. And I've been closely studying economic, environmental, and energy issues for only a few years. And I'm no expert. Yet I've come to the conclusion – and I don't want to be a "Chicken Little" here – that civilization as we have known it for the last century is doomed. Our wasteful manner of living – heck, the sheer size of our human population – is unsustainable. Everywhere you look you can see signs of strain on the Earth, from spreading pollution of the air, water, and land, to disappearance of life in the seas, to depletion of natural resources. Something's got to give. Things simply cannot continue as they have."

...and the punchline....

"The End of Money"

"Unfortunately, what we didn't realize at the time was that we would never again have it so good. The 1970s represented a "tipping point," to use the popular vernacular, for the American Dream. That was when globalization really started to take off and when the serious decline of American industry began, the steel and auto industries being among the first casualties. Interestingly, the 1970s was also the decade of peak oil production in the United States, after which point we became increasingly reliant on imported oil, which greased our downward slide. What I didn't realize until writing this was how crucial a role President Nixon played in creating this tipping point. Nixon opened the door to trade with China, a major player in today's globalized economy. Nixon disassociated the U.S. dollar from gold, facilitating the destruction of wealth through unrelenting devaluation of the dollar."

....BINGO !!! Let's repeat that one again !!

"...Nixon disassociated the U.S. dollar from gold, facilitating the destruction of wealth through unrelenting devaluation of the dollar."

Link attached...

contrarianSundeck msg#: 142555#1425643/18/06; 19:09:32

I second that! Best commentary and appraisal of the overall situation I have read in months.

Re your "on and off again" comment, I agree as it now appears, from what I've read that the Iranian Oil Bourse has been "postponed" until April (or never?). Also, the idea that Euros could replace dollar is questionable because there's aren't enough Euros in circulation.
Please see
"Despite repeated reports over the past 18 months or so that the planned bourse would finally open for business on March 20, 2006 -- and go head to head with the New York Mercantile Exchange and the ICE Futures Exchange in London -- the start date has been postponed by at least several months and maybe more than a year.
As for trading oil in euros, he said the Iranians likely would find it very difficult, at least in the next several years. "Basically, there aren't enough euros in circulation, and nor are there likely to be," he said.
Mr. Cook cited a recent article on Hong Kong-based Asia Times Online by William Engdahl, who specializes in the geopolitics of oil.
'For the euro to begin to challenge the reserve role of the U.S. dollar, a virtual revolution in policy would have to take place in Euroland," Mr. Engdahl wrote. "First the European Central Bank . . . would have to surrender power to elected legislators. It would then have to turn on the printing presses and print euros like there was no tomorrow.'"

This also confirms what Jim Willie predicted on March 2 (
As a preface, the Iranian Oil Exchange will not set up shop in March 2006. The exchange for Central Asian energy product sale, will not go into operation, will not come to pass, at least not anytime soon, and certainly not this month. My reliable sources traceable to London tell me that Iranian mullahs and clergy entrenched in high office have decided they do not wish to relinquish their corrupt siphon from vast energy sales into their personal accounts. Some old leaders have stolen and wish to continue to steal from their people, from their national energy deposit treasure. The launch of the Iranian Oil Exchange (IOX) will not succumb to Western pressure, will not back off from a challenge to the Petro-Dollar. The IOX will not happen because certain influential Moslem Iranian leaders wish to continue their pilferage, still brisk as each day passes. A formal exchange would force their ruling class to abide by rules of law, official transparency requirements, and that aint gonna happen. Some cock & bull story will be forthcoming as to feasibility or prepared facilities or whatever, so as to save face. To be sure, Iran will continue to sell energy products, and will likely not store the proceeds from those sales in USDollar denominated securities. The diversion away from US$-based assets will continue."

It's like the term "vaporware" in the software industry--new software versions that are announced/marketed (and sometimes never produced) to jinx the competition.

Perhaps the bourse planners also got cold feet from the wide dissemination of the Europe 2020 reports predicting a worldwide policital, economic, and financial crisis starting week of March 20-26:

Personally, I think the dollar will be defended till its dying day, and there won't be a precipitous collapse at least this year, but a gradual deterioration. Would be interested to hear what others think, especially that for now, it appears the oil bourse is off.

SundeckSocietal and economic change, energy and money#1425653/18/06; 19:18:36

A few quick comments/responses on Sunday morning in Oz…

@Boilermaker #142556

- Recessions are a kind of "mini-collapse". Total failure? I think not (and hope not). The US system (social, economic) is an adaptive system, "flowing" wherever circumstances permit or encourage. There are many examples of such large systems regaining recognisable identity after major upheavals (Japan and Germany after WWII; Great Britain after the folding of the British Empire after WWI – which is still in progress). On the other hand, a major loss of identity can occur (Western Roman Empire leading to the "Dark Ages" in Europe), never to be regained.

@Goldilox #142557

- Governments sometimes need to tread on the toes (or completely behead) some "private" corporations and interests for the long-term well-being of the people. However (democratic) governments cannot suppress technology and ideas very effectively. Whether the "best" ideas and technologies are eventually developed, and accepted, probably depends more on the interplay between proponents and antagonists (commercial and otherwise) of such ideas and technologies...or upon mere chance! Of course, governments can influence the spectrum of uptake of ideas and technologies by legislation, regulation, fiscal appropriation and "mental massaging" of the people.

-Corporate tails wagging government dogs too vigorously (or at will) certainly can be a problem, since it is then that the people get whatever is profitable for the corporations rather than what is in the long-term interests of the people.

- Militaries in the western world (and elsewhere) are highly trained, highly skilled, highly disciplined, very capable and very loyal. They are in the position of having to do the government's bidding no matter what; even when many know that the government's request is really quite stupid. (There is a limit to the extent that the military will go in this least amongst some military personnel. But that limit is often over-ridden by various things.) Unfortunately, incompetent, egotistical or threatened governments sometimes co-opt their militaries into pursuing inglorious campaigns by exploiting the "better qualities" that have been inculcated into the military ranks.

- Drug and alcohol use and abuse, to the extent that it exists, is more likely to be symptom rather than cause of any particular condition that manifests in either the military or civilian populace at large.

@Flatliner #142559

- Energy and money are widely miss-understood. Energy is primal...since nothing happens without the transfer of energy from a usable form (in the human sense) to a less-usable form. Like energy, money helps to make things happen (in the human world), but it can also be created and destroyed, which energy cannot.

- Whether energy is "cheap" or "expensive" is confused by the dollar intermediary. If energy could be easily and effectively transferred to those who use it, for one purpose or another, by a "barter-like" mechanism, then we might readily see whether it is appropriately valued by virtue of the products and services that arise from different quarters. However, the insertion of a currency intermediary (like the dollar) disguises the true value of available energy least for a while. Since the US dollar is large in concept, intrudes broadly into world affairs, and is strongly defended, it tends to "warp" any instantly recognisable measure of the value of different forms of energy. Resetting the "value of energy" involves resetting the value of the dollar. So I think I would agree with your thrust.



Black BladeWe Were Warned#1425663/18/06; 20:16:58

There is a fairly decent program on CNN tonight outlining some scenarios that could change our way of life if oil supply is disrupted. We are on the long slide downward now in regard to energy. I saw the first showing tonight and a repeat showing is slated for tonight (11 pm eastern) and a repeat showing tomorrow night. (actually it should have encompassed all energy supply).

The Discovery channel will have a month long series called "The Perfect Disaster" starting tomorrow night and showing every Sunday through mid April. These series are probably worst case scenarios but worth consideration. they are essentially focussed on natural disasters including a worst case scenario if a massive solar flare strikes earth at the right angle and right polarity disrupting communications and causing blackouts that last months if not years.

Recently Sec. Levin suggested that the mutating Bird Flu could be an extreme disaster that may have people homebound for months and recommended the usual same advice I constantly give here - at least about a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. The economic fall out of course makes it imperative that we have Gold and Silver "portfolio insurance" to provide a "golden lifeboat" to sail over stormy economic seas.

In short, the "We Were Warned" showing on CNN tonight and tomorrow night may be worth your time. It is not as dramatic as the FX showing called "Oil Storm" from late last year. The "The Perfect Disaster" series may also be worthwhile although I have not reviewed it (no one has because it has not been shown).

As usual my usual advice not necessarily based on natural disasters, pandemics and terrorism, but on any unforeseen economic disruption that can effect one's family life (including longterm illness or simply getting laid off for example): "Get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months' expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver as "portfolio insurance", and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities to last several months'".

- Black Blade

SmeagolNot enough Euros?#1425673/18/06; 21:35:19

From Ssir Sundeck's msg#: 142555:

"As for trading oil in euros, he said the Iranians likely would find it very difficult, at least in the next several years. "Basically, there aren't enough euros in circulation, and nor are there likely to be," he said."

Sss...why would there need to ne more, precious? We guesses that the value of the Euro, and its GOLDen reserve backing, will jusst have to rise to meet the demand!


GoldiloxVaporization systems#1425683/18/06; 22:17:19

@ Flatliner,

There was another one posted a few days back, and the tribulations of the inventor sounded horrendous.

GoldiloxNot enough Euros in Circulation for the bourse?#1425693/18/06; 22:23:13

Sure sounds like hogwash to me, as the Europeans currently have to trade Euros for dollars before oil purchases. Where the heck are they getting the Euros they purchase the dollars with?

One might suspect they are just using dollar credits from trade surplus, but one wonders how many Euro nations have large enough trade surplus to completely fund their energy needs?

The euro is expandable if need be, so I don't buy the premise.

SundeckEnough Euros?#1425703/18/06; 22:33:28

@Sir Smeagol ref # 142567

Small correction, if I may....that quote re "enough euros" was from Sir contrarian's #142564, I think, not Sundeck's #142555

Sir contrarian was himself quoting someone else...a Mr Cook?

Quotes within quotes within quotes...gets confusing...


GoldiloxBaseball going the way of dollar hegemony#1425713/19/06; 00:10:10

Wow, Cuba and Japan in the WBC final.

With all the MLB star players on Team USA, DR, and Venezuela, the last MLB players remaining in the tourney are Ichiro and Aki Otsuka (Padre turned Ranger this year), with NONE on Team Cuba.

Even America's "pastime" is finding better renditions overseas.

SundeckGlobalisation of baseball#1425723/19/06; 03:11:05

Yes Sir Goldilox,

...even baseball might find its apogee (highest point, in orbit) "offshore" in these days of the "global village"..."nations" may be becoming just an artifact of geographic ignorance, and "the state" similarly. Just think how we might benifit from fewer politicians ;-) and fewer wars between the states that they "represent"...

Get used to it...the English have, after all, relinquished supremecy in cricket and rugby to other least, most of the time!

...and I dare say you might be able to buy a better curry in London than in the whole Indian sub-continent...

Rather than feeling threatened, I suggest we should all feel rather priviledged...


The Invisible HandThe last week of April 2006#1425733/19/06; 03:22:22

My calendar says April 31 is a Friday.
So the week starting tomorrow, Monday April 20, is not the last, but the last-but-one (full-working) week of April.
Just to be sure what these 'contrarian' pages
mean by the last week of April 2006.

The Invisible HandOops!#1425743/19/06; 03:26:01

Replace "April" by "March"
SmeagolSorry about that Sssir Sundeck...#1425753/19/06; 10:00:16

...we was in a hurry. We'll take more care next time!


GoldiloxGlobalization#1425763/19/06; 10:23:07

@ Sundeck,

And you can "buy" better savings in precious than in nationalistic FIATs.

I was impressed by the following quote from TIH E2020 post:

"Decoding of the event "End of publication of the M3 macro-economic indicator"

The end of the publication by the American Federal Reserve of the M3 monetary aggregate (and that of other components) [3] , a decision vehemently criticized by the community of economists and financial analysts, will have as a consequence to lose transparency on the evolution of the amount of Dollars in circulation worldwide. For some months already, M3 has significantly increased (indicating that « money printing » has already speeded up in Washington), knowing that the new President of the US Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, is a self-acknowledged fan of « money printing » [4]. Considering that a strong fall of the Dollar would probably result in a massive sale of the US Treasury Bonds held in Asia, in Europe and in the oil-producing countries, LEAP/E2020 estimates that the American decision to stop publishing M3 aims at hiding as long as possible two US decisions, partly imposed by the political and economic choices made these last years [5]:

. the ‘monetarisation’ of the US debt
. the launch of a monetary policy to support US economic activity.

… two policies to be implemented until at least the October 2006 « mid-term » elections, in order to prevent the Republican Party from being sent in reeling.

This M3-related decision also illustrates the incapacity of the US and international monetary and financial authorities put in a situation where they will in the end prefer to remove the indicator rather than try to act on the reality."

GoldiloxInternationalization of contests#1425773/19/06; 10:27:22

@ Sundeck,

I have always maintained that the world would be better served by placing the bullies who propogate wars in the contest ring "mano a mano", as opposed to sacrificing the blood of their "followers" through war propaganda.

canamamiThe Other Iranian Threat#1425783/19/06; 11:15:48

Kevin Steel's article on the Iranian bourse, from the March 18, 2006 edition of the Western Standard.
968China to open theme park dedicated to gold#1425793/19/06; 13:02:43

Gold-hungry China plans to open what it has billed the world's first theme park dedicated entirely to the precious metal, state media reports.

Construction of the theme park kicked off near a working mine at Rushan city, east China's Shandong province, the Xinhua news agency says.

When the 3.6-square-kilometre, $A34 million park is completed, it will allow visitors to watch gold being mined and processed.

It will also include a DIY area where the visitors themselves can be gold miners for a day, the agency says.

China is the world's third-biggest market for gold after India and the United States, the World Gold Council says.

Last year, Chinese demand for gold rose 8 per cent to more than 250 tonnes, the council's data showed.

Gold plays an important role in Chinese culture and is evident everywhere from temple decorations to the jewellery of newlyweds and the dental cavities of the rich.

Last year, the China Economic Daily issued a special edition, published in gold.

It came in two versions, with the more expensive priced at $A11,300 and used 500 grams of gold.

Ten BearsLife imitates art and vice versa#1425803/19/06; 13:24:33

This Sunday's comics have more politics than an editorial page… One depicts George Bush as an obvious hireling receiving his speech from an ear piece and accidentally referring to his" bosses" while addressing a group of like minded reporters with one gagged dissident.

Current action movie "V" is constructed around an historical event where either: (a) one religious group attempts to prevent the ascendance of another, or (b) agents-provocateurs from the ascending group attempt to divert support from the descending group, by the blowing up of buildings. The destruction is portrayed as a virtuous act.

The junior Senator from Wisconsin introduces a bill to censure G.B. for using false information to draw the U.S. into a war. Not impeachment, but censure.

A line from the movie "Havana" comes to mind. The criminal cartel ruling Cuba paid large sums to the politico's. A sub-boss, says to the gambler, They have their money both ways, they are supporting both sides, and they think I don't know.

George B. Shaw play "Pygmalion", later produced as the movie "My Fair Lady" characters Henry Higgins and Col. Hugh Pickering were able to determine where one lived in London by simply hearing the person's accent. Now computer programs are used to determine one's politics by what sites are visited on the internet.

We live in interesting times, A bit of gold or other sound money is often useful in such times.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.We put a world of gold at your fingertips...#1425813/19/06; 14:32:24">gold -- a global calling card
Freedom; 15:39:29

Ladies and Gentlemen,
Here is something NEVER seen in America. All the rich, from Klaus von Buelow to O. J. to the execs at ENRON should look at this example. I acutally "stumbled" onto this article while reading about the new Gold Theme Park that will open in China.

The story is: Billionaire executed for contract murder. <snip> BEIJING, March 18 -- Billionaire Yuan Baojing and two other men were executed Friday in Liaoning Province in the contract killing of a man who threatened to expose Yuan's attempt to murder a businessman.

Imagine that: justice prevails over money somewhere.

Chris PowellJustice over money in China?#1425833/19/06; 16:14:30

Maybe. Or maybe the government just
wanted the billionaire's money.

mdgcFreedom - Xinhuanet articles#1425843/19/06; 18:03:31

The issue China View that had the story of the execution of that Chinese billionaire had another article of interest.

The other article notes that the renminbi or Chinese yuan is at a 12 year high against the dollar.

Quixoteamazing#1425853/19/06; 18:50:22

i predict msg 142583 will go down in the books as one of the most foolhardy bits of complete and utter stupidity ever uttered.
Ned@ Black Blade#1425863/19/06; 19:17:53

Thank you very, very much for the 'heads up' for the CNN documentary just finished "We Were Warned".

We've been watching the 'peak oil' news for some time now, I sense, for better or worse, that maybe a sliver of Joe 6 Pack (aka J6P) may have caught a sliver of the show.

Scarey indeed. Wait 'til this gains a 'sliver' of momentum.

Man 'o Man, your tunes ring out tonight my friend, "get out of debt", save a nickel or three, slowly accumulate some real assets, save up some non-perishable food-stuffs.

Funny the episodes into Nov. 2009. Timing seems about 'bang-on'. Wonder how they decided that?

Thanks again.

The Invisible HandDon't worry, the sky is the limit!#1425873/19/06; 20:32:20,,1734826,00.html

A bull stampede is dangerous, but I don't think this is the time to stop running
Nils Pratley
Monday March 20, 2006
The Guardian
A sign of the times. You have the author's picture next to the article. Guess his age.

Gandalf the WhiteTIH#1425883/19/06; 20:57:07


Caradoc@Gandalf/ TIH#1425893/19/06; 21:55:43

The photo does look like someone barely past twenty, but a link from 2001 says he was 33 that year. Oddest thing about the fellow is not that he's doing a Dorian Gray, but his fascination with online gambling. The article TIH linked has him investing in PartyGaming, and an article in Salon told the story of the truly unusual circumstances of that firm's founding:

He even got The Guardian to front him £200 for online poker:,,1326250,00.html

No matter what his age, I suspect he'd do better with gold, silver, and maybe a little palladium. To his credit, he has pointed out that what seem like optimistic projections of the price of mining shares often turn out to have been too conservative:,,1702954,00.html


GoldiloxSecrets of the Mint . . .#1425903/19/06; 23:02:24

on the Travel Channel right now. Starting out talking about minting of silver and gold "collector coins", as they call them.
GoldiloxWest Point Mint#1425913/19/06; 23:20:17

Here's a tidbit I didn't know. The West Point mint, smallest of the branches, is located at the Military Academy and strikes all US gold coinage.
TownCrierProtesters torch mining giant's camp#1425923/20/06; 03:45:47,5744,18533876%255E1702,00.html

March 20, 2006 -- HUNDREDS of people have attacked and torched a mining camp run by a local subsidiary of US giant Newmont on Indonesia's Sumbawa island.

The attack came days after deadly clashes in Indonesia's West Papua province during protests last week to demand the closure of a gold and copper mine run by US firm Freeport-McMoRan.

...a week earlier, local residents had blockaded a road leading to the mine and demanded that they be involved in the company's exploration operations.

The residents also reportedly wanted the company to pay money into a community development fund.

In Papua, Freeport-McMoRan pays 1 per cent of its profits into a fund controlled by local tribespeople.

^---(from url)---^

One of several ongoing reminders that mines (and essentially the mining company shareholders) are sitting ducks for potential nationalization of in-ground natural resources -- be it via outright control of production of the reserves or via taxation.

Avoid the risk and make sure the golden portion of your portfolio has all of the benefits of physical gold; make sure your asset is both tangible and portable. Choose gold coins and bullion.


TownCrierProtests against expanded gold extraction in Bulgaria#1425933/20/06; 03:58:52

20 Mar 2006-- Protests followed a decision by Bulgaria's environmental authorities to allow the expanded extraction of gold near the western village of Chelopech.

...Environmental organisations of opposing opinions regarding the investment proposal to expand the extraction and processing of copper and gold ore at Chelopech and the production of metals from concentrates staged protests in front of the Ministry of Environment and Waters on March 10.

Representatives of the foundation Cyanide-free Bulgaria protested against the investment proposal. They raised posters saying: "We are walking on gold and yet we go hungry"...

^---(from url)---^

Similar scene plays out, yet half a world away.

See previous comments.

Operating within such a distinctly HUMAN driven social environment, where would you entrust YOUR savings -- in tangibles or in various layers of promises, permits, and contracts?


The Invisible HandQu’est-ce que je vous? - IOB opens next Sunday March 26#1425943/20/06; 04:44:45

La fronde des pays producteurs de pétrole s’organise.
dimanche 19 mars 2006, par Ashoka
En dépit des efforts maladroits des Américains pour limiter les dégâts à venir et colmater les brèches, un grand nombre de pays producteurs de pétrole tentent de s’affranchir de la poigne de Washington. À terme, les conséquences seront catastrophiques pour les Etats-Unis et les citoyens américains.

The revolt of the oil producers is being organised
Despite the clumsy efforts of the Amerikans at damage control, many oil producing countries are trying to free themselves of Washington's fist. The long-term consequences will be catastrophic for the US of A and the Amerikan citizens.

Eschatologie: Une crise d’une ampleur gigantesque nous menace
date: 2006-03-16 | rapporteur d'info: Christian
L’économie mondiale va basculer pour un temps, et chacun d’entre-nous sera touché durement. Elle est inéluctable et certains la voient commencer le 26 Mars 2006. Elle mettra en scène certains acteurs incontournables du monde moderne : Le pétrole, les Etats-Unis, et le sacro-saint dollar.
L’Iran a annoncé qu’il créerait le 26 Mars 2006 une bourse pour les transactions de son pétrole (5 % du marché mondial), en Euros.

Eschatology : A crisis of a gigantic scale threatens us
The world economy will be toppled over the edge and each of us will be strongly affected. The crisis is unavoidable and some see it starting on March 26, 2006. It will put on scene some "unavoidable" actors of the modern world. Oil, the US of A and holy dollar.
Iran has announced that it would create on March 26, 2006 a bourse for transacting its oil (5 % of the world market) in euros.

ArcticfoxCopter Ben speakes tonight..#1425953/20/06; 05:06:46

So be ready for a WWF smack down in the metals today.....
Clink!Ron Paul talks to Jay Taylor#1425963/20/06; 06:54:02

They cover a lot of ground.

TownCrierBuffett reiterates sees dollar weakening#1425973/20/06; 09:20:27

NEW YORK - U.S. billionaire investor Warren Buffett on Monday reiterated his long-standing prediction that the U.S. dollar would weaken over time.

"I think over time the dollar is going to weaken. I have no idea whether it will be this year or five years from now," he told reporters after ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange.

The dollar traded fairly steadily after Buffett's remarks.

"It's the consumer's action in the end that is doing it, but we have no governmental policy that counters the fact we are sending a couple of billion dollars a day abroad. We are trading -- we are buying goods and we are selling capital," he said.

^----(from url)----^

To mitigate the long-term ill consequences of all this, as long as you're buying goods, just make sure some of them have the staying-power of gold and you'll surely come to understand quite personally the meaning of the phrase "money well spent".


TownCrierGold in Reserves -- What % should it be?#1425983/20/06; 09:40:42

20 March--
(an excerpt)
...One only has to open one or two pages of a large volume on the past to realise that currencies have a poor history and it is infinitely wise to protect against the worst possible eventuality. Why should Germans or Italians or the French throw caution to the wind and depend on the gold reserves of the E.C.B.? Why should they increase the proportion of their savings in the U.S.$ when they have known since the war, the over-issuance of that currency? Why should they invest their savings in their own currencies when the purpose of gold is to protect against an adverse future for that currency?

Clearly the consensus opinion of the largest economies in the world, [by their actions] believe gold should form more than half their reserves! So we do well to try to translate these actions into the realities of reserve management. As if to corroborate this view we see both China and Russia belatedly aiming to increase their gold reserves.

^---(from url)---^

On balance, the article is haphazard, but the concluding remarks (above) were worth passing along.


GoldiloxOccidental offers Ecuador $1bn#1425993/20/06; 09:52:23


Occidental Petroleum is offering the Ecuador government up to $1bn (£569m) in disputed taxes, investments and extra revenues to end a legal dispute.
The row centres on whether the US firm transferred part of an Ecuadorean field to Canada's EnCana in 2000 without approval from the Ecuador authorities.

Occidental proposes giving Ecuador at least $600m in extra revenues from the disputed area, but denies wrongdoing.

The company faces the possibility of having its Ecuador licence revoked.

It currently extracts 100,000 barrels per day from the country, South America's fifth largest oil producer.

Social payment

Occidental's offer also includes $100m for health and social development projects.

It has further pledged to invest $110m in new projects with Ecuador's state oil firm Petroecuador.

In addition it will pay a $50m bonus for contract changes and $13m towards the Energy Ministry's plans to modernise its tax system.

Ecuador's Energy Ministry is continuing to look at the Occidental case.

Occidental has been caught up in recent anti-American protests in Ecuador.

Indigenous groups blocked highways last week to demand the government in capital Quito ends free trade pact talks with the US and kicks Occidental out of the country.


More resource compensation is being demanded from the companies who extract in South America, as China continues to provide competitive export markets.

TownCrierThe new RBI policy...#1426003/20/06; 11:10:32

Mumbai, March 20 -- Reserve Bank of India is unlikely to allow primary dealers to enter into commodity and foreign exchange trading business immediately, as requested by some, a central bank official said Monday. New norms for primary dealers, likely to be released in two weeks, may allow them to foray only into equity trading, he said.

...Primary dealers’ role is set to gain prominence from April 1, when RBI stops participating in primary gilt market.

As per the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, from April 1, RBI can't support the government borrowing programme by taking private placements or buying gilts that are not subscribed at auctions.It can only buy or sell gilts in secondary market.

As a result, primary dealers will have to support the government borrowing programme by underwriting 100 per cent of the gilt auction, as against the current allowance of part-underwriting.

Primary dealers have been asking RBI to allow them to trade and invest in other instruments like foreign exchange, equities, and commodities because rising interest rates have dented their profitability from bonds. The RBI official, however, said the diversification of primary dealership activity could be limited to only equities at this juncture.

^---(from url)---^

Bottom line is a step toward a improved market-based system of price discovery as the RBI will no longer be involved in artificially backstopping any and all errant pitches of government debt.

As the wide world of official debt (e.g., as seen in RBI's new policy here as with that of the eurosystem) comes more and more into focus, freshly seen without eyes previously made bleary by the old policies of CB support, the markets will also come to better see and understand the right (much higher) value of gold.

These evolving developments within the official sector as they relate to both forex policy and the bright future of gold have been (and continue to be) neither accidental nor left to chance. Those who can clearly evaluate the path we are on have every reason therefore to rejoice for the Trailblazing still being done for the journey ahead.


mikalNew money seen replacing "trickle"#1426013/20/06; 13:00:28,00020001.htm

Investment Demand Expected To Push Up Gold Prices - Indo-Asian News Service - March 20, 2006
mikalGold moves on "financial and general macro-economc variables"#1426023/20/06; 13:12:33

Why Gold Prices Move Ahead of Metals - G. Chandrashekur - March 19, 2006
USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1426033/20/06; 13:35:05">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

MONDAY Market Excerpts

March 20 (from MarketWatch) -- COMEX April gold rose $1, or 0.2%, to end the session at $556.10.

"We expect gold and copper prices to make new record highs this week as the potential for significant disruption to supply escalates in Indonesia," said John Meyer, analyst at Numis Securities.

Newmont Mining has suspended exploration at a site on the island of Sumbawa after a group of about 50 unknown assailants destroyed a workers' camp, according to media reports.

The attack comes just days after four security officers were killed in the province of Papua in an attack on a mine operated by Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, also a long-time participant in Indonesia's mining industry.

"Protesters are looking for disclosure on the destinationand use of funds paid by foreign miners," said Meyer in a note to clients. "We assume that this implies that a proportion of the funding is not feeding through to local projects." In the latest dealings, shares of Newmont fell 21 cents to $49.65. Freeport-McMoRan shed 42 cents to trade at $52.80.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

mikalTrustbusters#1426043/20/06; 15:55:08

To The Moon Alice - And Beyond Honesty by Ed Henry
March 20, 2006
"...What's going to happen if our foreign lenders find out about this scam before the American taxpaying public wakes up? Do you really think they'll continue to loan us money if they recognize this swindle and that the individual Americans who must stand behind and redeem their loans have, for the first time since the Great Depression, a negative savings rate, are deeply in debt on their own credit cards, and cannot pay them back if they demand immediate repayment? Legitimate securities contracted under the open market side of the national debt can be cashed-in at any time and things like this cause runs on banks.
Would we go to war with our lenders over this issue? You bet we would. George W. Bush, the man with his finger on the nuclear button, is preparing for just such an event with mini-nukes and weapons in space alongside our already overwhelming arsenal of weapons of mass destruction. He's already trying to build a case for attacking Iran primarily because they've threatened to sell their oil for Euros instead of Dollars, the same thing Saddam did.
With our dollar falling in value all over the world, a trade deficit of $804.9 billion for the last calendar year, a skyrocketing national debt, and most of the civilized world turning against us, all Osama Been Forgotten and his crew have to do is to run up their "mission accomplished" banners and sit back to watch us implode."

mikalCorrected link#1426053/20/06; 16:42:06
TownCrierThis just in from a friend... "Credit derivatives rocked by loss at GM finance arm"#1426063/20/06; 16:47:40

Telegraph, 20 March 2006 -- The discovery of huge hidden losses at General Motors's finance arm have raised fresh fears of bankruptcy at the world's biggest carmaker, sending tremors through the credit derivatives markets.

The struggling group asked for a filing delay after admitting to an extra $2bn (£1.1bn) in accounting errors at its finance arm GMAC, raising total losses last year to $10.6bn. The news triggered a sharp spike in the cost of default insurance on GMAC's bonds, rising 75 basis points overnight.

Car-parts supplier Dana Corporation defaulted last week on $2.5bn of debt, following Delphi and Tower Automotive last year.

Concern that General Motors may now be sliding towards the brink - linked to an estimated $200bn in credit derivatives - has renewed fears that the over-heated credit swap market could seize up in a crisis...

Timothy Geithner, president of the New York Federal Reserve, warned in a recent speech that the $300,000bn derivatives market had raced ahead of the infrastructure needed to support it.

"They have not ended the tendency of markets to occasional periods of mania and panic. They have not eliminated the possibility of failure of a major financial intermediary. And they cannot fully insulate the broader financial community from the effects of such a failure," said Geithner.

...investor Warren Buffett has been warning since 2003 that derivatives are a ticking "time bomb"... explaining it has cost Berkshire Hathaway $404m to extract itself from derivatives inherited through General Re, the reinsurance group.

"Our experience should be particularly sobering because we were a better-than-average candidate to exit gracefully.

''General Re has had the good fortune to unwind its supposedly liquid positions in a benign market. It could be a different story for others in the future," Mr Buffett said.

^---(see url for full article)---^

How can ANYone with even a basic ability to comprehend any of this still be sitting blithely on the sidelines of physical gold ownership?

The more you know, the more you realize how much you need gold in your portfolio...


TownCrierChairman Ben S. Bernanke before the Economic Club of New York#1426073/20/06; 18:17:05

March 20, 2006 -- Reflections on the Yield Curve and Monetary Policy

(excerpts on "the conundrum")

The tightening cycle that began at the end of June 2004 is notable in at least four respects. principal focus this evening, is the behavior of long-term interest rates. Since June 30, 2004, the overnight interest rate has moved up 3-1/2 percentage points, but the ten-year nominal Treasury yield has only edged higher.

At less than 4-3/4 percent, that yield is not much above the target federal funds rate of 4-1/2 percent and, indeed, is about even with yields for maturities of one to three years.

In the remainder of my remarks I will speculate on the reasons for and consequences of this historically unusual behavior of long-term rates.

...The ten-year Treasury yield, for example, can be viewed as a weighted average of the current one-year rate and nine one-year forward rates, with the weights depending on the coupon yield of the security. As I will discuss, each of these forward rates can be split further into (1) a portion equal to the one-year spot rate that market participants currently expect to prevail at the corresponding date in the future, and (2) a portion that reflects additional compensation to the bondholder for the risk of holding longer-dated instruments.

...Why have the far-forward rates implied by the term structure of interest rates declined in recent years? Observers have offered two broad (and not mutually exclusive) classes of explanations. One set of explanations holds that bond yields are reacting to current or prospective macroeconomic conditions. Another set focuses on special factors that may have influenced market demands for long-term securities per se, independent of the economic outlook.

...A second possible explanation of the evident decline in the term premium is linked to the increased intervention in currency markets by a number of governments, particularly in Asia. According to this explanation, foreign official institutions, primarily central banks, have invested the bulk of their greatly expanded dollar holdings in U.S. Treasuries and closely substitutable securities, and these demands by the official sector have put downward pressure on yields. This interpretation has some support, including research that I did with two coauthors that found that longer-term yields came under significant downward pressure during episodes of heavy official purchases of dollars in 2004. And financial-market participants appear to be especially sensitive to any suggestion that foreign official entities may alter their portfolio preferences.

However, these observations speak more to the existence of a short-term impact of large purchases and sales--the result of limits to liquidity in the very short run--than to the perhaps more important question of whether those transactions have a lasting effect on yields. On this latter issue, clear evidence is harder to come by. ... Notably, the global market for dollar-denominated bonds is enormous--perhaps around $25 trillion, including dollar-denominated debt issued by other countries as well as debt issued abroad by U.S. residents...

...Given the global nature of the decline in yields, an explanation less centered on the United States might be required. About a year ago, I offered the thesis that a "global saving glut"--an excess, at historically normal real interest rates, of desired global saving over desired global investment--was contributing to the decline in interest rates. In brief, I argued that this shift reflects the confluence of several forces. On the saving side, the factors include rapid growth in high-saving countries on the Pacific Rim, export-focused economic development strategies that directly or indirectly hold back the growth of domestic demand, and the surge in revenues enjoyed by oil producers. On the investment side, notable factors restraining the global demand for capital include the legacy of the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, which led to continuing sluggishness in investment in some of those economies, and the slower growth of the workforce in many industrial countries. So long as these factors persist, global equilibrium interest rates (and, consequently, the neutral policy rate) will be lower than they otherwise would be.

Conclusion the current situation--the bottom line for policy appears ambiguous. ...... Given this reality, policymakers are well advised to follow two principles familiar to navigators throughout the ages: First, determine your position frequently. Second, use as many guides or landmarks as are available.

...Ultimately, a robust approach to policymaking requires the use of multiple sources of information and multiple methods of analysis, combined with frequent reality checks. By not tying policy to a small set of forecast indicators, we may sacrifice some degree of simplicity, but we are less likely to be misled when a favored variable behaves in an unusual manner.

^---(see full speech at url)---^

OK, so will the Fed be able to keep its head when the price of gold (being, among variables, a globally favored "reality check") begins a more powerful ascendancy?


PRITCHOActor Charlie Sheen - - Questions Official 9/11 Story #1426083/20/06; 19:12:23

This guys got guts - -he's gone up a few notches in my ratings - --

Sheen agreed that the biggest conspiracy theory was put out by the government itself and prefaced his argument by quoting Theodore Roosevelt in stating, "That we are to stand by the President right or wrong is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public."

SurvivorBen's Bull#1426093/20/06; 19:24:04

Thanks TC

I can't resist posting my interpretation of the conclusion to Helicopter Ben's comments . . .

" the current situation--the bottom line for policy appears ambiguous. ...... Given this reality, policymakers are well advised to follow two principles familiar to navigators throughout the ages: First, determine your position frequently. Second, use as many guides or landmarks as are available.

Survivor: In other words, we are now looking over our shoulders constantly and searching for a clue.

"...Ultimately, a robust approach to policymaking requires the use of multiple sources of information and multiple methods of analysis, combined with frequent reality checks. By not tying policy to a small set of forecast indicators, we may sacrifice some degree of simplicity, but we are less likely to be misled when a favored variable behaves in an unusual manner."

Survivor: In other words, if we keep the signals adequately confused, the resulting smokescreen will obscure an accurate view of the printing press.

MKSurvivor#1426103/20/06; 19:53:39

I picked up on the same passage. I am probably not alone in saying that the first thing that popped into my mind when I read the following passage is the discontinuation of M3:

"Ultimately, a robust approach to policymaking requires the use of multiple sources of information and multiple methods of analysis. . ."

"But let's strip the academic and analytical community of the use of M3" seems to be the appropriate continuation of that thought.

I know that I've used M3 in my analysis and writing or a good number of years. Bernanke, the academic, understands what it means to take that tool away from the analysts. Bottom line, you simply cannot continue your analysis. You have to start over or attempt to make some sort of bridge -- a very effective stratagem to confuse, diffuse and suffuse. . . More than anything, in my mind, the Bernanke ploy lays down a line of fire to cover the Fed's true intent -- to inflate the money supply, monetize the debt and devalue the dollar once and for all against all opposition. The new powers granted the Fed to operate in the forex markets, in my view, are aimed at the same end. Let's now forget that this man spent a great deal of time at the White House before going over to the Fed. Bernanke could very well turn out to be the most political Fed chairman in our lifetimes.

SmeagolOf navigating the conundrum...#1426113/20/06; 19:54:42

" the current situation--the bottom line for policy appears ambiguous. ...... Given this reality, policymakers are well advised to follow two principles familiar to navigators throughout the ages: First, determine your position frequently. Second, use as many guides or landmarks as are available."

Sss... ahem... Cap'n Bernanke, precious... it's overcasst, it's night, there is no Moon, the barometer is dropping like a sstone, the seas are rising along with the roar of the wind, we've ssprung many leaks and are taking on water, and the compass is behaving as if there is a magnetic storm... eh, what's that? We thinks we hears the sound of crashing waves on rocks ahead! Landmark ahoy!

S. ~>8-)

MKSurvivor#1426123/20/06; 19:57:54

I picked up on the same passage. I am probably not alone in saying that the first thing that popped into my mind when I read the following passage is the discontinuation of M3:

"Ultimately, a robust approach to policymaking requires the use of multiple sources of information and multiple methods of analysis. . ."

"But let's strip the academic and analytical community of the use of M3" seems to be the appropriate continuation of that thought.

I know that I've used M3 in my analysis and writing for a good number of years. Bernanke, the academic, understands what it means to take that tool away from the analysts. Bottom line, you simply cannot continue your analysis. You have to start over or attempt to make some sort of bridge -- a very effective stratagem to confuse, diffuse and suffuse. . . More than anything, in my mind, the Bernanke ploy lays down a line of fire to cover the Fed's true intent -- to inflate the money supply, monetize the debt and devalue the dollar once and for all against all opposition. The new powers granted the Fed to operate in the forex markets, in my view, are aimed at the same end. Let's not forget that this man spent a great deal of time at the White House before going over to the Fed. Bernanke could very well turn out to be the most political Fed chairman in our lifetimes.

goldquestAnd all of this#1426133/20/06; 20:56:47

from an non-governmental institution that was promoting "Transparency," just a few short years ago!
Beer Man @ Black Blade .. looking for a phone interview on talk radio 9 to 11 am Cent. time#1426143/20/06; 21:07:39

I have some friends that do talk radio & they give me a lot of time .. the probem I have is many are of the all is well mind set on oil & the economy ..... I have tried to wake them up but I could sure use some help .... I can get you a toll free # to call or they can call you ..... RE: 60 min. show about the NASA guy & the white house & the you were warned CNN show ...... they have set a spark but many just dont get it ..... if you would like to help let me know what would work best for you ...... Thanks Dan the Beerman .......... P. S. Tried to get Ron Paul .. so far no luck ..... our U.S. Rep was just on & when asked 3 good economic questions said ( I dont understand it enough ) ...... & he is one of the better ones !!!!!! We are in deep trouble !!! At least he was honest & didnt try to BS his way out of it
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A is for Asset Preservation: Why Americans Need Gold#1426153/20/06; 21:12:27

The incident is one of the most memorable of my career. Never before or since has the value of gold in preserving assets been made so abundantly clear to me. It was the mid-1970s. The United States was finally extricating itself from the conflict in South Vietnam. Thousands of South Vietnamese had fled their embattled homeland rather than face the vengeance of the rapidly advancing Communist forces.

kim thanhIn my Denver office, a couple from South Vietnam who had been part of that exodus sat across from me. They had come to sell their gold. In broken English, the man told me the story of how he and his wife had escaped the fall of Saigon and certain reprisal by North Vietnamese troops. They got out with nothing more than a few personal belongings and the small cache of gold he now spread before me on my desk. His eyes widened as he explained why they were lucky to have survived those last fearful days of the South Vietnamese Republic. They had scrambled onto a fishing boat and had sailed into the South China Sea, where they were rescued by the U.S. Navy. These were Vietnamese "boat people," survivors of that chapter in the tragedy of Indochina. Now they were about to redeem their life savings in gold so that they could start a new business in the United States.

Their gold wrapped in rice paper was a type called Kim Thanh. These are the commonly traded units in Hong Kong and throughout the Far East. Kim Thanh weigh about 1.2 troy ounces, or a tael, as it is called in the Orient. They look like thick gold leaf rectangles 3 to 4 inches long, 1-1/2 to 2 inches wide, and a few millimeters deep. Kim Thanh are embossed with Oriental characters describing weight and purity. As a gesture to the Occident, they are stamped in the center with the words OR PUR, "pure gold."

It wasn't much gold-about 30 ounces-but it might as well have been a ton. The couple considered themselves very fortunate to have escaped with this small hoard of gold. They thanked me profusely for buying it. As we talked about Vietnam and their future in the United States, I couldn't help but become caught up in their enthusiasm for the future. These resilient, hard-working, thrifty people now had a new lease on life. When they left my office that day, there was little doubt in my mind that they would be successful in their new life. It was rewarding to know that gold could do this for them. It was satisfying to know that I had helped them in this small way.

I kept those golden Kim Thanh for many years. They became something of a symbol for me-a reminder of the power and importance of gold. Today, when economic and financial problems have begun to signal deeper, more fundamental concerns for the United States, I still remember that Vietnamese couple and how important gold can be to a family's future. Had the couple escaped with South Vietnamese paper money instead of gold, I could have done nothing for them. There was no exchange rate for the South Vietnamese currency because there was no longer a South Vietnam! Wisely, they had converted their savings to gold long before the helicopters lifted U.S. diplomats off the roof of the American Embassy in 1975.

Over the years, I have come to understand and appreciate the many important uses of gold-artistic, cultural, economic, and industrial. Gold is unsurpassed for jewelry and as a high-tech conductor of electricity. Gold has medical applications in dentistry and in treating diseases from arthritis to cancer. Gold plating is used in computers and in many other information-age technologies. All of these pale, though, in light of gold's ancient function as money. As an asset of last resort, gold makes its most important contribution to the general welfare. Through the many economic debacles in human history runs one common thread: those who survive financially do so because they own gold. In recent years, gold has regained its glitter among American investors. This renewed interest in gold is not so much a hedge against the devastation of war but against something much more subtle-the potential destruction of wealth from an international collapse of the dollar and a subsequent economic breakdown. -- From The ABCs of Gold Investing

TownCrierSmeagol,#1426163/20/06; 21:47:08

On the page below you can (finally) see one of the various gold images -- specifically, the Kim Thanh leaves -- that MK had previously mentioned to you in a post awhile ago in regard to some of the new photography I've been busy with.

Sorry for the time lag... I hope the finished product was sufficiently worth the wait.


Knallgoldtest#1426183/21/06; 07:55:50

KnallgoldCash is trash#1426193/21/06; 07:58:30

Another one going Gold...
GoldiloxAmmo Shortage Update#1426203/21/06; 08:52:21


Not to put a conspiratorial bent on things, but the Second Amendment (Right to Bear Arms, if you're still groggy from last night) doesn't mean much if you don't have any ammo. Part of me is extremely concerned and I do not want any US Serviceperson to ever worry about ammo supplies. But the flip-side concerns go to planning by the Rummy Boyz and what about State's ability to raise a militia (now that the National Guard is largely out of the country) should a bunch of OTM's have snuck in through our still porous borders, kept that way by what I'd argue are treasonous money grubbing politicians. Best money can buy...


What better way to deal with "looming shortages", then make sure ammo is the first commodity in short supply. BB's advice looks more and more pertinent.

GoldiloxBernanke's first Speech#1426213/21/06; 08:56:22


Ben Bernanke's first speech was given in the most manner possible, last night. The People's Economist taps his china board and screams at you: "When the market is closed!". Ah, just so, the idea being that I figure I can judge the aggregate of the Fed Chairman's confidence and the relative volatility of markets by simply looking at when the Chairman speaks, to some extent.
So what did he really say?
"I will conclude that the implications for monetary policy of the recent behavior of long-term yields are not at all clear-cut."
Even more of an eye-opener was that Bernanke's citations as sources, included himself in 4 out of 7 notes - a remarkable 57% of the time. Bernanke then wound up is speech by saying:
"Ultimately, a robust approach to policymaking requires the use of multiple sources of information and multiple methods of analysis, combined with frequent reality checks. "
Reality checks? Yup, that'd be refreshing. I think the American people have been patient waiting for their "reality checks," don'tcha think? So how soon?

I may be wrong here, but it seems to me the speech was more Greenspeak and a restatement of previous (or continuing) Fed policy of "stability uber alles." Javohl, predictable markets are great so long as the easy money injections keep working. But what's the plan when they don't?

There's a wonderful myth afoot that Baby Boomers will be able to take their accumulated stock market profits and savings out of the markets in an orderly fashion. Such a capitalistic wet dream might be possible if the world wasn't running out of resources and if new investors were available to step in an replace the investments being withdrawn. But that doesn't appear to be the case.


I especially like the part that four of seven source references were to himself. No circular logic there, right?

FlatlinerIs it a commodity or not?#1426223/21/06; 09:44:35

Gold banks association urge reforms

MUMBAI: A handful of bullion-importing banks plan to form an association and ask for liberalising the gold trade, said a banking representative.

"Some of us banks have already had a few meetings and are likely to form an association in a couple of months," Mahesh Sawant, head of precious metals and foreign exchange sales at IndusInd Bank, told Reuters on Tuesday.

Besides IndusInd, Bank of Nova Scotia and ICICI Bank Ltd have come together on the plan, he said.

The Bullion Banks' Association would lobby with the government for regulatory changes, particularly to allow banks to trade gold as a currency and a derivative product.
"We have handled foreign currency for a long time, so we shouldn't have a problem in treating gold in the same way," Sawant said.

Current rules don't permit banks to trade in the futures exchanges or take high import risk.

Most banks import gold on a consignment basis for their clients, fixing the price at the delivery point.

FL – This is an interesting concept, I wonder what it would be like treating gold like a currency? Maybe we'll all find out someday.

GoldiloxChancellor under fire for gold sale as price nears $600#1426233/21/06; 10:24:39,,16849-2095653,00.html

FORECASTS that gold prices are set to smash through the $600-an-ounce barrier saw Gordon Brown come under renewed pressure last night over his controversial decision to sell the majority of Britain's gold reserves.
Merrill Lynch predicted that gold would hit $600 an ounce in the long term after its recent rise above $500. Last month the precious metal hit a 25-year high of $579.50 an ounce amid concern among investors that America's huge trade gap would force a weakening of the dollar.

The Chancellor sold 395 tonnes of Britain's gold reserves between 1999 and 2002, generating $3.5 billion. At yesterday's London closing price of $554.10 he would have generated more than $7 billion (£4 billion).

Vincent Cable, the Liberal Democrat treasury spokesman, said: "The decision to diversify Britain's foreign reserves away from gold is a sensible one and one I have supported but the Treasury's impatience over timing has obviously been very costly."

He added that the Treasury was repeatedly guilty of failing to realise the best value for its assets, referring, in particular, to the sale of government shares in QinetiQ, the defence research group.

The sale of Britain's gold reserves — which are stored in vaults under the Bank of England, alongside billions of pounds of bullion owned by other institutions — was attacked even in 1999 for poor timing. Gold prices fell $5 an ounce on the news and swiftly tumbled to a 20-year low. The scheme was also suspected by some of being a stealth plan to ease Britain's entry into the European single currency.

Yesterday's criticism of Mr Brown came as worse than expected public finances data left the Chancellor's chances of fulfilling deficit forecasts in tomorrow's Budget as "touch and go".


The incredible thing is they still support the sale, suggesting that only the impatience and timing were wrong.


RadSilver ETF#1426243/21/06; 10:28:10

Does this mean it is a done deal?

WASHINGTON, March 21 (Reuters) - The U.S. Securities and
Exchange Commission said on Tuesday it has approved rule
changes that will allow the American Stock Exchange to list
shares in Barclays Plc's iShares Silver Trust.
"In effect, purchasing Silver Shares will provide investors
a new mechanism to participate in the silver market," the SEC
said in an order.
Each Silver Share will correspond to 10 ounces of silver,
the SEC said.

FlatlinerLooks like it.#1426253/21/06; 10:40:25

Here is a link
CometoseOur commander and chief on a short leash#1426263/21/06; 10:47:09

THank GOD's nearly over .....
Chris PowellRefusing to sell gold, Bundesbank rebuffs German government#1426273/21/06; 13:16:03

By Ralph Atkins and Kevin Morrison
Financial Times, London
Tuesday, March 21, 2006

The Bundesbank, the German central bank, on Tuesday rebuffed the Berlin government by announcing that it had decided against substantial gold sales before at least September.

The decision, although widely expected, marked a fresh assertion of independence by the bank, which has been under pressure to sell by the government of Angela Merkel, chancellor.

"Gold is an essential part of the currency reserves of the
Bundesbank," said Axel Weber, Bundesbank president. "Decisions on the manner and size of reserves are taken autonomously."

Mr Weber said that the decision related to sales in the current year of its option of 600 tonnes permitted by the Central Bank Gold Agreement, which expires in September 2009.

It excluded, however, the sale of up to eight tonnes for the
manufacture of gold coins by the government.

Mr Weber said no decisions had been taken about possible gold sales in future years. According to the Bundesbank's annual report, it held 3,427.8 tonnes of gold at the end of 2005 -- with just five tonnes sold for minting coins.

The bank is the largest holder of gold among the 15 signatories to the gold agreement.

The cash-strapped Berlin government has stepped up pressure on the Bundesbank to sell gold, and for the interest on the proceeds to be used to fund research and education projects.

The government has also proposed substantial cuts in Bundesbank staff bonuses in an attempt, some observers believe, to increase its bargaining pressure.

John Reade, precious metals strategist at UBS, said it was unclear when the Bundesbank would sell gold under the current pact because the Bundesbank and the German Finance Ministry have yet to agree on how future gold sale proceeds will be distributed.

"Until they reach an agreement, it is unlikely we will see any gold sales coming out of Germany," said Mr Reade.

The impact of Tuesday's announcement by Berlin will have been softened by a strong increase in Bundesbank profits, which will be transferred to the government.

The increase reflected higher interest payments and the effects of a weaker euro.

The Bundesbank's decision came as no surprise to the gold market with the price of gold falling about $3 to $550.00/$550.90 a troy ounce.

Chris PowellBank's economists appeal to central banks for more market intervention#1426283/21/06; 13:18:01

Rabobank Urges Global Central Banks
to Prevent Possible Plunge by Dollar

By Kaj Leers
AFX News
Tuesday, March 21, 2006

AMSTERDAM -- Economists at Rabobank have called on the world's central banks to undertake action to prevent the US dollar from plunging against the euro and other currencies.

Citing current "instabilities" such as the US trade deficit and the US national debt in the bank's quarterly economic review released today, Rabobank economists are urging central banks to "undertake a coordinated effort to bring down the value of the US dollar to a more sustainable level" vis-a-vis the euro.

The bank's economists point to the fact that the Chinese central bank has thus far been buying US dollars on a large scale, thus effectively supporting current currency trading levels, but the researchers said that several factors may force the Chinese central bank to stop buying dollars, which could result in a worldwide selloff of US dollars by currency traders as confidence in the currency would fade.

Some of the factors mentioned could be protectionism of the US domestic market by lawmakers, or an oil-exporting country like Iran deciding to switch to the euro instead of the dollar for oil-trading purposes as a result of political tensions, the economists said.

The Rabobank economists also argue that the US needs to start reducing its national debt and budget deficit, and decrease the country's trade deficit to prevent a possible loss of confidence in the dollar by currency markets.

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1426293/21/06; 17:37:12">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

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TUESDAY Market Excerpts

March 21 (from MarketWatch) -- COMEX April gold contracts fell to a low of $547.60, an intraday level not seen since March 14. It closed down $2.90 at $553.20.

"Gold and silver continue to defy the bears by quick bouts of profit-taking, followed by a sharp rises that wipe out most, if not all the losses," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter. "This is classical secular bull market patterns."

Weakness in the precious metal came as the dollar edged modestly higher against its major rivals, following Monday's comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that were interpreted as suggesting that further monetary tightening is to be expected. The greenback also found support from a bigger-than-expected rise in the core producer price index.

"For now, gold feels steady in the current $548-$560 range, with physical buying providing good scaled-down support," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.

Gold managed to find some modest support earlier Tuesday after Germany's Bundesbank said it won't sell any gold from its reserves in the second year of a bullion sales agreement with other European central banks.

"This had largely been expected, though there was reportedly some speculation in the market to the contrary," said economists at Action Economics.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

ToolieUS to China: outta my backyard#1426303/21/06; 17:46:20

Snip: WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States, wary of potential "crossed wires" as China steps up its involvement in Washington's traditional sphere of influence in Latin America, plans to start a dialogue with Beijing on the issue.
We're going to begin a series of conversations that will allow us to understand what the other is up to in the region, to make sure we don't get our wires crossed," said one official who is involved in organizing the talks with China but was not authorized to speak for the record.
China's quest for oil to meet surging energy demands and commodities for other areas of its economy are propelling expanding trade with Latin America. Chinese interests have included bids for Venezuelan oil, Chilean copper and soybeans from Brazil and Argentina.
The White House report accused China of "expanding trade but acting as if they can somehow 'lock up' energy supplies around the world or seek direct markets rather than opening them up."
(end snip)

Advice to China: Don't take any wooden nickels (or worse yet, paper dollars) .... Oops too late.

TownCrierBernanke says... US economy could withstand sharp dollar drop#1426313/21/06; 17:52:38

WASHINGTON, March 21 (Reuters) - The chronic U.S. trade gap need not fuel a "precipitous" decline in the dollar, but the economy could handle it if it did, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday in a letter to Rep. Brad Sherman, a California Democrat.

^---(from url)---^

OK, so maybe the ECONOMY can withstand a sharp drop in the dollar, but how well can your PERSONAL SAVINGS handle it?

It should strike you as a pre-emptive warning that this topic of a sharply dropping dollar warrants open discussion between the Fed and Congress.

As the hurricane Katrina disaster so aptly demonstrated, it's really up to you to look after your own unique best interests.


ToolieLarry#1426323/21/06; 17:54:44

I hope all is well with our friends downunder.
Ten BearsTHE WAGES OF NEO-LIBERALISM#1426333/21/06; 17:56:26


Wage disparity between China and the US ranges from 20 to 50 times in various sectors, and an exchange rate that reflected such a wide disparity would border on the ridiculous.

Thus a central bank's first key function of preserving the domestic purchasing power of fiat money conflicts with its second key function of providing monetary elasticity to a slowing economy

Thus central banks are saddled with conceptual contradictions in assuming the dual role of a vigilant supervisor of the rules of prudence in the financial market while at the same time acting as a permissive cheerleader for the infraction of the same rules in the name of innovative economic expansion.
What is even more pathetic is that in the US, the Federal Reserve is legally owned by its member banks, not the government, or the people.

Board members of the Fed are nominated by the member banks and appointed by the US president, and as a group they predominantly represent the special interests of the banking sector. (and the financial corporations)

To the extent that CCP policy drifts toward market fundamentalism with Chinese characteristics, PBoC will invariably also drifts toward representing the special interests of the banking sector and their big business clients at the expense of the interests of the proletariat and peasant masses, or Chinese banks cannot profitably compete in the world market. Such is the class contradiction of a "socialist market economy", no matter how the term is defined with doctrinal sophistry.

August 15, 1971, a date that marked the end of US dominance of world finance derived from the strength of its monetary system, and put the US on a slippery slope of currency manipulation through dollar hegemony

With unregulated global foreign-exchange markets in the 1990s, the US was eventually able to maintain a strong dollar without merit, through the residual historical geopolitical arrangement of denominating oil (black gold) in dollars.

At Bretton Woods, Harry Dexter White used the gold-backed dollar to appropriate a century of British financial hegemony and to use the gold-backed US dollar as a disciplinary device to punish dishonest fiat currencies of countries that ran recurring deficits. It is ironic that by the 1990s, the dollar had become the dishonest fiat currency used by globalized currency markets to punish honest fiat currencies of countries that had accumulated surpluses.

For the long term, money supply was the correct barometer, while interest-rate policy was the appropriate tool for the short term. Since interest-rate volatility is unavoidable, the compromise is to make the change in rates gradual to reduce the volatility. But gradualism prolongs a short-term solution into a long-term cure, thus neutralizing the effectiveness of interest-rate policy as a short-term tool. That is the real conundrum of interest-rate policy, not the inverse yield curve as Greenspan suggests.

Private-sector projects have weaker information and disclosure policies, less accountability and less stringent environmental policies than public-sector projects.

Henry C K Liu

ToolieDubai revolt II#1426343/21/06; 19:01:41

Snip: Arab and US officials are growing nervous at the prospect of a second congressional uprising against the acquisition of American assets by a Middle Eastern-controlled company in the wake of the Dubai Ports World debacle.
A person familiar with the thinking of both the US and United Arab Emirates said officials were concerned that the pending investigation of Dubai International Capital's £700m ($1.2m) purchase of Doncasters, a privately-held British aerospace manufacturer that works on sensitive US weapons programmes, including the Joint Strike Fighter, could provoke a similar backlash and further damage the relationship between the two countries.
"It is reported that your facility produces turbine engine parts critical to tanks and military must assume [it] plays a necessary and substantial role in the nation's ongoing military efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan," Mr Barrow wrote.
She did not want to prejudge the regulatory review of the Doncasters deal but conceded that the UAE needed to do more to "educate" the people in the US, including lawmakers. (end snip)

I wonder if the administration is going to trot out "we need foreign investment dollars" argument again. The US is going to run out of dollars like Australia is going to run out of seawater.

But the question remains. How long will foreigners continue to accumulate dollars when they just don't buy what they used to? My guess is not much longer.

GoldendomeTell us, Jim Willie, just what you REALLY think of government leadership.#1426353/21/06; 19:09:34

The United States, under its hostile, arrogant, irresponsible, nearsighted economic leadership, guided by misdirected, unwise, heretical, charlatan financial counsel, fully encouraged in indulgent, thoughtless, undisciplined, indebted lifestyle among the public, has actually thought it could export inflation, import deflation, enjoy the spending largesse afforded by a housing bubble, and expect to get away with the crime against Mother Economic Nature month after month, year after year. The price to be paid will come...
...The pendulum of time and financial justice swings. We are on the doorstep to the next grand step down for the USDollar and the next grand step up for gold. Expect all hell to break loose when it becomes increasingly clear that the USFed is a blink away from the end of its tightening cycle. That is all that supports the USDollar, held by the tenterhooks of rising interest rates.

Clink!Silver's a flyer tonight#1426363/21/06; 19:55:45

Just taken out $10.50

mikalIran has nothing on N. Koreans#1426373/21/06; 20:12:38

North Korea: We Can Nuke U.S. - AP - March 21, 2006
This should knock the dollar off it's pedestal... NOT!

Goldilox"American Theocracy" - Clear and Present Dangers#1426383/21/06; 20:48:22


The third great impending crisis that Phillips identifies is also, perhaps, the best known — the astonishing rise of debt as the precarious underpinning of the American economy. He is not, of course, the only observer who has noted the dangers of indebtedness. The New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, for example, frequently writes about the looming catastrophe. So do many more-conservative economists, who point especially to future debt — particularly the enormous obligation, which Phillips estimates at between $30 trillion and $40 trillion, that Social Security and health care demands will create in the coming decades. The most familiar debt is that of the United States government, fueled by soaring federal budget deficits that have continued (with a brief pause in the late 1990's) for more than two decades. But the national debt — currently over $8 trillion — is only the tip of the iceberg. There has also been an explosion of corporate debt, state and local bonded debt, international debt through huge trade imbalances, and consumer debt (mostly in the form of credit-card balances and aggressively marketed home-mortgage packages). Taken together, this present and future debt may exceed $70 trillion.

The creation of a national-debt culture, Phillips argues, although exacerbated by the policies of the Bush administration, has been the work of many people over many decades — among them Alan Greenspan, who, he acidly notes, blithely and irresponsibly ignored the rising debt to avoid pricking the stock-market bubble it helped produce. It is most of all a product of the "financialization" of the American economy — the turn away from manufacturing and toward an economy based on moving and managing money, a trend encouraged, Phillips argues persuasively, by the preoccupation with oil and (somewhat less persuasively) with evangelical belief in the imminent rapture, which makes planning for the future unnecessary.


A review of the larger work, "American Theocracy", attempting to demonstrate how closely tied the loss of rights, social backwardization, and financial manipulation of the "debt-based economy"into a more tightly woven political thread.

GoldiloxNo Korea#1426393/21/06; 20:50:55

@ mikal,

eah, but the North Loreans got their nuclear technology directly from Rumsfeld, so while they talk a mean game, underneath it all, they are basically "good guys", or he never would have sought administration approval of the sale.

mikalSpring cleaning#1426403/21/06; 22:28:34

Today is the first day of spring - and hope and new life abound. It is often the most exciting part of the year: flowers blooming, warm breezes replacing the cold winter winds - and new birds and animals being born.
As Americans we are having a 'cold winter - in Iraq. Three tough years that have seen much bloodshed and even more division here at home. The presidency of GW Bush is basically in shatters - and the Republican Party is in big trouble for having supported the Bush Administration through a series of colossal failures: Social Security Reform, Katrina, Medicare Prescription Drugs, Harriet Meyers and Dubai Ports.
In sum, a miserable record that is leaving many Republicans feeling fearful of November.
It is time we all realize a basic fact of life: government - even when it is run by Republicans - is a sump of ineptitude, ego, self-aggrandizement, corruption and lies.
But the beauty of this great country is we survive despite the government.
The United States has many problems - but none of them are insolvable. In fact, they will all work out. We - the people will get them solved. It will take longer than we want, but we will solve them.
Growing up in the 1960's - and already watching the evening newscasts by the age of 13 - I can remember how every single night for years the 30-minute newscast was totally dominated by Vietnam. Night after night we saw film footage of battles in South Vietnam - and the death toll of our troops regularly exceeded 100's per week.
I often asked myself - at age 13 - "is this ever going to are we going to get out of this?"
Well, by 1973 - and then 1975 - the Vietnam War indeed ended.
It took way too long - and cost 58,000 American lives. But that problem was finally ended because the politicians who screwed it all up finally heard the American people.
Today we have some wrenching problems. Besides Iraq, we are dominated by the illegal immigration disaster that is widespread - and on which Washington DC has totally missed the boat.
Well, in the 2008 presidential election, this issue will be huge - and it will again show how the American people still run this country.
Here is a Hopeful Prediction for the spring: we are about to see a truly democratic political revolution in our country. Through the Internet and Talk Radio and Blogs, the old way is no longer capable of setting the agenda - and picking our political candidates.
The New Way is here: using this new technology we, the people, are about to reject the Establishment of both parties. Dubai Ports was a precursor of this: until Talk Radio (Mike Savage is a hero on this) and the Internet got ginned up, the ports deal would have sailed through without the American people ever knowing about it.
But the New Media indeed exposed it, rallied the grassroots and Netroots, and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives broke from their 5-years of lock-step support for GW Bush. They listened to the people! How refreshing!
Much more of this is to come - including rejection of Establishment candidates in both parties. And new solutions to problems - in unexpected ways.
This indeed is what makes this spring so hopeful.
Breaking down the seemingly impenetrable barrier between the people and the Establishment is a huge development.
George W. Bush preaches 'democracy' as the solution to all problems. Well, he and his DC cohorts - Republican and Democrat alike - are about to get a real dose of true democracy.
And that is the most hopeful development of all.
"Published originally at : republication allowed with this notice and hyperlink intact."
John LeBoutillier is a former U.S. Congressman and a nationally recognized political commentator. He has been a frequent guest on many national talk show programs and is author of the book Harvard Hates America. He is a regular columnist for Ether Zone.

GoldendomeThe Non-Stop Inflation - The definition ---- bySteve Saville #1426413/22/06; 00:01:54


"The correct definition of inflation is an increase in the supply of money that CAUSES a decrease in the purchasing power of money, but we usually define it as simply an increase in the supply of money. This is done, in part, for the practical reason that it's impossible to measure changes in the purchasing power of money on an economy-wide basis.

It is not possible to measure changes in the overall purchasing power of money because it is not possible to come up with a meaningful number that represents the average price level within an economy. There are, of course, price indices such as the CPI that purportedly represent the average price level, but these indices are generally worse than useless because they are calculated in such a way that they are guaranteed to paint a misleading picture. And in any case, even an honest attempt to determine the average price level would fail. The reason is that even if it were somehow possible to determine a meaningful number that represented the average of things as different as eggs and new cars, a calculation that was valid today would, in a dynamic economy, be obsolete tomorrow.

To illustrate just one of the insurmountable challenges of coming up with a price index that accurately represents the EFFECTS of inflation let's consider the hypothetical example of the $2 widget made in the US. In our example we'll assume that monetary inflation within the US over many years pushes up manufacturing costs such that these widgets can no longer be made in the US and sold at a profit for anything less than $3; in other words, if nothing else changes then the inflation will cause the dollar's purchasing power to fall from 0.5 widgets (2 dollars = 1 widget) to 0.33 widgets (3 dollars = 1 widget). But something else does change. Instead of raising the selling price of the widget from $2 to $3 in response to the increase in costs, what actually happens is that our hypothetical widget manufacturer keeps the selling price the same and opens a factory in a part of the world where manufacturing costs are much lower. Therefore, in our example inflation causes the dollar's purchasing power to fall and this, in turn, leads to the closure of a factory in the US and an increase in the quantity of imported goods. Inflation has obviously had an important effect, but it's unlikely that any price index will capture this effect."...

TownCrierMerrill sees $850 gold#1426423/22/06; 04:18:20

Globe and Mail Update -- Gold should outperform equities over the next few years, technical analysts at Merrill Lynch say.

...the relative ratio of the Dow Jones industrial average to the price of gold is declining and likely will continue to do so...

A chart in a report by the analysts shows the ratio is currently just below 20:1, down from about 42:1 in the mid-1990s. "The long-term target for the relative ratio appears to be 13:1," they said. "Based on the current DJIA level of roughly 11,000, this would translate into a long-term gold price target of $850, or the peak set in January 1980."

^---(full article at url)---^

Apparently the fundamental picture of structural evolution of the CB reserves within the international monetary system was a bit too complex for these guys at Merrill Lynch to get a handle on, therefore, (or so it seems,) they consequently resorted to this lame bit of simpleton-voodoo analysis that we see presented here in this article.

tsk tsk


GoldiloxMerrill "Analysis"#1426433/22/06; 08:07:29

Dang, was that ever lame!

Whatever happened to "1:1 at the final bear market bottom." They obviously don't have the cajones to print that!

$850 in current dollars is like saying there is no gold bull, we're just matching inflation.

My voodoo butter says DOW 10,000, Au 10,000, Ag 500, if they print like madmen, which they will.

Of course, to put that into perspective, a cup of Joe will be about $25, and a gallon of gas about $50, including taxes.

Seriously interesting times ahead.

GoldiloxCredit derivatives rocked by loss at GM finance arm#1426443/22/06; 09:09:45


The discovery of huge hidden losses at General Motors's finance arm have raised fresh fears of bankruptcy at the world's biggest carmaker, sending tremors through the credit derivatives markets.

The struggling group asked for a filing delay after admitting to an extra $2bn (£1.1bn) in accounting errors at its finance arm GMAC, raising total losses last year to $10.6bn. The news triggered a sharp spike in the cost of default insurance on GMAC's bonds, rising 75 basis points overnight.

Car-parts supplier Dana Corporation defaulted last week on $2.5bn of debt, following Delphi and Tower Automotive last year.

Concern that General Motors may now be sliding towards the brink - linked to an estimated $200bn in credit derivatives - has renewed fears that the over-heated credit swap market could seize up in a crisis.

Global investors are already jittery after the crash of the Icelandic krona, which sparked flight from hot assets as far afield as Hungary, Turkey and New Zealand.

There is concern that monetary tightening in Europe, Japan, and America in unison might drain much of the excess liquidity fuelling the global asset boom.

Timothy Geithner, president of the New York Federal Reserve, warned in a recent speech that the $300,000bn derivatives market had raced ahead of the infrastructure needed to support it.

He said the plethora of new instruments may have led to a more dangerous concentration of risk.

"They have not ended the tendency of markets to occasional periods of mania and panic. They have not eliminated the possibility of failure of a major financial intermediary. And they cannot fully insulate the broader financial community from the effects of such a failure."

"There are aspects of the latest changes in financial innovation that could increase systemic risk in some circumstances, by amplifying rather than dampening the movement in asset prices," he said.


Those who thought GM was "safe", because 90% of its business was financial instead of manufacturing, might have some new "food for thought."

As GM goes, so goes the USA. Not a pretty picture.

GoldiloxRhodium hurdles $4,000/oz, highest since July 1991#1426453/22/06; 09:17:12


LONDON (Reuters) - Rhodium, a metal mainly used to clean automobile exhaust emissions, rose sharply in Europe on Wednesday to trade at $4,000 an ounce for the first time since July 1991.

Free-market prices stood at $4,000/4,100, up $200 from levels prevailing earlier this week on industry buying, and some $600 up this month.

"It is well bid now at $4,000, and there is hardly an ounce to be had," a trader said.

Rhodium has risen steadily from the depressed levels of $500 an ounce seen in 2004, and has significant upside potential -- its all-time high was $7,000 in 1980.

"One of the main factors behind the recent price rise is the lack of available material, as traders hold back their stocks in anticipation of further price rises," Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach of precious metals specialist Heraeus Metallhandelsgesellschaft mbH said in a report.

The price advance has caught many end-users by surprise, and they have been forced to change their buying strategies.

"They did not think that it was going to go to this level. They have been living on a hand-to-mouth basis," another trader said.

Material has been difficult to secure, especially as some of the speculative longs are unwilling to make metal easily available.

"They find longs do not want to lend it -- lease rates are 14 to 15 percent, so rolling over shorts is not an option, and they (borrowers) are having to buy instead," the second trader said.


For those who thought platinum was expensive. The article goes on to list some supply and demand concerns.

Flatliner@Goldilox#1426463/22/06; 10:40:10

The situation you report with regards to the Rhodium market may provide shades of what the world might see in the markets of other precious metals. Consider, for just a moment, if the savers of the world switch their savings from fiat currencies into something tangible like precious metal. Not only would the existing stocks of metal be consumed, but new savings would also consume new mined supply. I would expect that at that point traders in precious metals would be saying "there is hardly an ounce of gold or silver or platinum to be had, and the lease rates are running 15%."

Not only does a tight market imply high prices to keep the metal flowing, but it means high rates for people to borrow it. This situation is simple. Picture savers rushing into the metals markets looking for security. Savers, unlike traders, tend to hold something for very long periods of time. Due to their purchases, the physical market dries down to mine supply along with a small amount of scrap. The prices, also revalue to match needs. But, the price really doesn't matter when ounces don't flow. It creates an environment where lease rates are high. These high rates provide a means for the owner of the property to lease a capital asset and, possibly, live off the income.

What a great way to save for retirement. You buy physical (in whatever form) and watch it float with inflation. Then, during retirement, you lease out some portion that provides for your lifestyle. When you pass away, the children inherit the treasure chest and learn through experience.

Buying physical has more benefits then most people think – and they are not all Geopolitical. As I've said before, you may never want to sell your gold again.

GoldiloxLeasing Precious#1426473/22/06; 11:38:27

@ Flatliner,

The problem with leasing precious is the courts that tend to rule "payment in cash" over "payment in kind."

Now that's some RISK!

GoldiloxOne man's ceiling is another man's floor!#1426483/22/06; 11:48:08

With three or four attempts to slam IT below $550, we seem to be witnessing a pretty strong floor.

Silver is off to the races at around $10.50.

Flatliner@Leasing Precious#1426493/22/06; 12:41:43

In today's environment, leasing is not an option. Rates are in the fractions and so much of the precious has been lent that the entire market teeters on an implosion. Those who lend today will most likely not see the metal again because of these imbalances. This is not an option for today's markets.

In the future, will we still have these imbalances? Time may tell. If not, the environment may be one where leasing is an option to be considered. If so, we all might benefit.

At the same time, it's worth watching the side of the equation that deals with currency creation. It appears today that the rate at which currency is created has feed a metal's investment arena that has skewed demand above supply. Because of this extra demand, new methods for creating supply have been introduced and are being introduced on a mass scale. Look around and you will find dozens of different derivative products that track precious metals. All these derivative products hide the imbalances providing a false sense of security. That security holds the financial markets together.

The decisive moment will come for each investor when the person figures out that holding a derivative does not entitle them to the ‘insurance’ that physical provides. Think back to the Kim Thanh story presented by MK (a few days back, and in his book that should be read by everyone). No other form of gold ownership offers this type of security. As people become educated with regards to physical, the imbalances that the derivative markets have hidden will, at some point, become obvious. That moment will be when the financial system re-evaluates how they count things and we start all over again. One might liken that to the point when the music stops and the winners hold physical.

Hopefully, the music will never stop. Hopefully, there will always be enough confidence in the derivative products to offset explosive physical demand. Hopefully, we'll see a silent re-valuation in precious metals based on actual physical demand rather then speculative demand. That will provide a firm floor all the way up. But, for some reason, the music for me has already stopped, and, I'm ok with that.

GoldiloxLeasing#1426503/22/06; 12:48:03

@ Flatliner,

"Those who lend today will most likely not see the metal again because of these imbalances. This is not an option for today's markets."

Unless we unseat the courts who are cash-minded, this variable remains a nastily unesttling part of the equation.

In a hyper-inflationary environment, and I argue that we are entering just that, cash equivalents are trash, but our courts (see Kelo vs. New London) are not well equipped to handle that reality.

Flatliner@Leasing#1426513/22/06; 13:19:30

It's been really hard for me to tell where companies end and government begins. I'm sure the courts are having the same problem, or, maybe, conflict of interest. Thus, we all got to witness this confusion with this ruling on property rights.

Fortunately today, cash serves its exchange function very well. Hopefully one finds value with it while they still can.

FlatlinerDP World chief says dispute was 'shock'#1426523/22/06; 13:40:49;_ylt=AiLD5EB51OmZ8Q_.GCBldjb2ULEF;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--

DP World's chief executive said on Tuesday that the virulent reaction to its attempt to take over P&O's US port assets came as "a real shock" given the close ties between the United Arab Emirates and the US.

Fl – One has to wonder about this a little. On one hand, we live in a state of fear in the US. The media has blown everything up to the point where people have illogical paranoia. On the other hand, the government and corporations have been in bed with oil for so long that any threat to business as usual comes as a shock. Makes you wonder if the tide has turned. You know, if the country is actually acting on the irrational fears. Outside, it must look as if the US government and corporations have lost control.

The real question here is how long will it take the world (outside the US) to figure out that that people are so scared that they are actually willing to do something about it? It seems, the outcome is that business as usual is threatened. This does not look good for international investments in this country. The loss of that function will cause a re-think in why they are holding US dollars.

An investing rule, If you can't invest in the company to make money in it's product, you invest in what the company buys to make profit selling to the company.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Exchange today's harvest for enduring value!#1426533/22/06; 15:33:17

Swiss gold francs

The Harvest
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

USAGOLD-Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

TownCrierGold miner has trouble finding/harvesting profits in Bolivia#1426553/22/06; 15:35:42

KORI KOLLO MINE, Bolivia, March 22 (Reuters) - High global prices have given gold mining a new lease on life in Bolivia. But a lack of long-term investment in exploration in the unstable South American country means this reprieve may be short-lived.

In the refinery at Kori Kollo open-pit near the poor mining city of Oruro, workers in aluminum suits polish up the latest batch of 28-kg (62 lb) gold and silver-mixed ingots.

Three years ago, they were out of jobs because the mine's increasingly low yields were no longer deemed profitable.

But the $250,000 each ingot currently fetches led Inti Raymi to resume operations at the site and invest $27 million to develop the smaller, nearby mine of Kori Chaca, which means "bridge of gold" in the local Aymara language.

Despite current demand, Inti Raymi -- controlled by the world's second-biggest gold company, U.S.-based Newmont Mining Corp -- says its business is marginal and that ****any tax increases by the new leftist government could make it inviable once again.****

As current reserves dwindle, Inti Raymi's exploration teams are hunting new deposits from highland west to lowland east...

"There's virtually no gold mining in Bolivia, but there is gold. The potential is interesting but the question is how to conquer the capital. We're getting to a standstill situation," said Jordan, an economist who used to work in the sector.

"There could be a comeback, but it will be in 20, 30 or 40 years' time," he added.

Mining investment in Bolivia, which has been rocked by protests that toppled two governments in as many years, lags behind its neighbors despite the country's geological richness.

The December election of the left-wing government of President Evo Morales, who has pledged to nationalize the impoverished country's natural resources...

According to the association of mining companies, taxes are already high in landlocked Bolivia... But many within Morales' government say mining companies must contribute more...

Oruro's governor, Luis Aguilar, himself a former miner, said, "We propose giving more powers to the region to stop these companies from just taking wealth out of the country."

[Says] Ibo Blazicevic, Inti Raymi's community relations chief: "People think you're making a fortune because it's gold, but this is a marginal business and big changes to the mining code could mean it's no longer worth it."

^---(from url)---^

Facing an uncertain socio-political climate in the future, it is far better (more secure) to own the physical gold than to try to "own" the mine or the mining company from which it came. Mining or shareholder 'profits', if any(!), are merely an accounting device which quite possibly may not provide any real gain in the final analysis because they are denominated as monetary units that may actually be losing ground due to a higher pace of inflation.

Gold, on the other hand, consolidates as tangible wealth the real profits that you've ALREADY CLEARED from previous pursuits which have proven themselves profitably productive.

As an economically productive participant and saver, the key going forward is to find the avenues that are well-suited for today's monetary earnings (or profits) based on your current skills and knowledge, and to prudently consolidate such earnings into reliable, tangible wealth/savings.


makcumkaBelarus Elections - When will Lukashenko leave?#1426563/22/06; 15:37:17

Link in Russian.

Brief synopsis of the article: According to "Interfax" news agency, Lukashenko stated that he would continue being a president until Belarus Central Bank has 100 tons of gold reserves. <...> Currently, Belarus has 25 tons of gold reserves.

Looks like there is a set demand for 75 tons of gold to be taken off the market. Interesting.

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1426573/22/06; 15:59:05">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

WEDNESDAY Market Excerpts

March 22 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold saw its April contract fall by $1.50 to close at $551.70 an ounce -- its lowest level since March 13 -- extending their prior-day losses made on strength in the U.S. dollar.

"Softer oil/firmer dollar prices and Iran's decision to enter into talks with the U.S. will weigh on sentiment in the coming session, but physical support is likely to remain strong around $548-$550," said James Moore, an analyst at in London.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

TownCrierA few quick thoughts on Bernanke's "global savings glut"#1426583/22/06; 16:25:57

It shouldn't take too much thought to figure out why Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his various fellow International Dollar-System adherants have cleverly chosen the misdirectional phrase "global SAVINGS glut" to describe the world's present monetary asymmetry.

For discussion purposes, that is, were the goal to actually facilitate some meaningful discussion on the matter, a more productive phrase would certainly be something more along the lines of a "global LENDING glut". Such a discription more accutely puts a concurrent focus on the corresponding element of DEBT.

Whereas as "glut" of savings (as Bernanke would have it framed) doesn't sound terribly ponderous, certainly by contrast a "glut" of debt would speak more urgently for some sort of redress by way of policy scrutiny and revision.

Being along in a liferaft while all others are treading water, the dollar has had it pretty good. Bernanke doesn't want to rock the tippy little boat.


mikalMidweek Headline Hoedown#1426593/22/06; 17:55:49

Oil above $62 after surprise U.S. crude stocks drop - Reuters
Treasuries climb but seen mostly stuck before Fed - Reuters
U.S. Stocks Rise, Ending Slump; Dow Reaches Almost 5-Year High - Bloomberg
Cash Squeeze Means Pension Freeze -
Fewer families can afford a home - USAToday
Futures predicting 5% fed funds rate - Chi. Trib
Debt Party: Investors Scoff at Risk, But Their Borrowing May Haunt Them - WSJ
Mortgage demand at year's low - CNN/Money
Poll says the affluent see top executives as overpaid - Houston Chronicle
UAE, Saudi considering to move reserves out of dollar - MEForEx
David Shaw Says Hedge Funds Will Have Tougher Time Making Money - Bloomberg
Ten signs of a real estate apocalypse - Forbes
Delphi, GM, UAW Reach Agreement on Buyout - AP
Freddie Mac's CFO Baumann resigns - CBS Marketwatch
China warns US not to make it a scapegoat - FT
ECB's Weber Is Concerned About Euro-Region Inflation - Bloomberg
Biggest test yet to come for Bank of Japan - FT
China to Tax Luxury Goods -
UK inflation hits Bank of England's 2% target - FT
Schools Told to Prepare for Bird Flu - AP

Ten Bears:Very pointed commentaries this month from Charley Reese and Bob Chapman#1426603/22/06; 18:03:11

Check Your Beliefs March 17
Consequences Of A War State March 22,
The Value Of George Orwell March 8
The Meaning Of Free Speech March 20
Losing Our Country March 6,
It's Usually About Money March 1
Dubai Ports World March 3
Charley Reese @

Bob Chapman @


The world's central banks would have us believe that they will likely work closer together to try to manage the impact of an expected long-term decline in the value of the dollar. They have already been doing that for a very long time without telling you that. Trial balloons are going up preparing the public for the fall of the dollar.
It has all been planned that way to clear a path for a universal world currency as part of a One World Government.

Our manufacturing base is being depleted, not to mention our natural resources. Our education system is sick. Our culture is decadent. Our government is corrupt.

Unrestrained power, whether wielded by private individuals and corporations or by government, nearly always produces evil and misery.

The present monetary system, based on a fiat dollar and a privately owned central bank misnamed the Federal Reserve System, is a handy way to rob the American people of the fruit of their labor.

Secretary of the Treasury, John Snow, used to be chairman of the CSX corporation, and a year after Snow left, the company sold port operations to the Dubai company for $1.15 billion.

PRITCHO@ You've GATA Watch those North Loreans :)#1426613/22/06; 18:54:53

- - - Plus there's NO OIL ! So no problemo.
The Invisible HandM3 and IOB – What are the facts?#1426623/22/06; 19:14:14
Ron Paul, our heroic Congressional Representative from Texas, has introduced a bill to require the Federal Reserve to continue publishing M3, the broadest measure of the money supply, and one that they plan to start hiding from us.
March 20 was also meant to see the inauguration of the Kish oil bourse, on which Iranian oil will be traded in a basket of currencies, including the euro. But because of "technical glitches", according to the Ministry of Petroleum, the launch has been postponed, with no new date set.’


Will the Fed publish M3 tomorrow? If Paul's bill has not yet been enacted, the Fed should not publish M3. This assumes there's some logic over there, i.e. at the Fed.
Is there such a thing over there?
But is the bill still a bill, or is it already a congressional act, in which case (the latter) M3 will be published tomorrow?

Some days ago, I posted a snip saying that the IOB would open on Sunday March 26.

Why do you bore us with these stupid questions?


The Invisible HandIOB information war#1426633/22/06; 19:57:32

L’IOB iranienne? Pas (encore?) au courant

Date de publication : 22/03/2006 - Rubrique : Bloc-Notes

Les nombreuses spéculations concernant l’ouverture d’une bourse iranienne du pétrole (IOB, pour Iranian Oil Bourse, avec paiement du pétrole en euros plutôt qu’en dollars), fixaient en général son ouverture pour le 20 mars.
Toujours pas de nouvelles de cette ouverture…

L’agence Novosti (Moscou) a interrogé les Iraniens, le 20 mars justement. Voici l’essentiel du court rapport qui est fait de cette requête :

« Iran denied Monday media reports that it was to open a euro-based oil exchange. "We have no information on opening an oil exchange in the free economic zone on Kish Island [southern Iran]," a spokesman for the Iranian Oil Ministry told RIA Novosti.

» He said the ministry would have had been informed if the exchange had opened. The spokesman said the exact date of the oil exchange opening on Kish Island was still unknown. »

Première observation: on dit qu’il n’y a pas eu ouverture de l’IOB et qu’on ne sait pas quand l’IOB ouvrira, — ce qui implique qu’il y devrait y avoir, et une IOB, et l’ouverture de cette IOB. Deuxième observation : en attendant de savoir quand et si l’OIB ouvre, et ses effets par rapport au dollar, à l’euro, au pétrole, etc., — bref, en attendant de savoir quel sorte d’arme politico-économique sera l’IOB, il faut admettre que l’IOB est d’ores et déjà une arme médiatico-politique en bonne place dans la guerre de l’information et de la désinformation.
Mis en ligne le 22 mars 2006 à 08H41

Title: The Iranian IOB? I have not (yet?) been notified

The final paragraph says

First observation: the Iranian report [upon request of Novosti newsagency Moscow] says that the opening has not yet taken place and that it does not know what the opening will take place – which implies that there should be both an IOB and an opening.

Second observation: while waiting to know when and whether the IOB opens, and what will be its effects vis-à-vis the dollar, the euro and oil (The Invisible Hand: gold is not mentioned) – in short, while waiting what kind of political-economic weapon the IOB will be, it must be conceded that the IOB is already a weapon of politics and media's which is in good place in the war of information and disinformation.

The Invisible HandOops!#1426643/22/06; 20:11:11

First observation: the Iranian report [upon request of Novosti newsagency Moscow] says that the opening has not yet taken place and that it does not know WHEN the opening will take place
Smeagol"Who Needs Al Capone?"#1426653/22/06; 21:59:39

a thought-provoking read here, precious. Here's a teaser for you:

"Morning Has Broken.... And The 'Death Star' Aligns Against Gold

Now for a real world example of how ideology meets reality. The following factual account is one that depicts the collision of ideology and the "raters" with the adage that highlights the importance of market commentary. This involves one of my readers sharing a personal/professional experience he recently had in his place of work. Without mentioning his name, he is a senior IT professional at a major Financial Investment firm in Texas that manages approximately 30 billion in assets. And because nobody tells his story better than himself, here's what he had to say:

"Recently, when the Cheuvreux Report came out, I went straight to the chief principal at [my] firm to give him a copy. This guy is the chief stock picker in the firm and his decisions strongly influence the stocks that are bought and sold by the firm. After several days, he contacted me and stated that the report had really stimulated his interest, and are there any gold stock recommendations that I could provide? I thought about it and gave him the tickers HL (Hecla), NEM (Newmont) and AEM (Agnico-Eagle).

I was astonished with what [our] research department communicated to me several days later. You see, not only could our firm not buy any of my PM recommendations, the firm could not buy even a single solitary share of any gold/silver stocks and here is why:

1). Our firm uses Morningstar ratings on stocks and stocks cannot have the >>>>lowest rating [one star] to be considered by our firm.<<<<

2). Not only did my three recommendations all have the lowest rating (One star)..... every single gold stock with analysis was the lowest rating (One Star) !!!!"

"So, I went to Morningstar's web site at - took a two week "free trial" subscription and inputted by industry "Gold & Silver" to see what kind of research would come up? Low and behold, I found that EVERY HUI member that is covered is rated with the lowest Morningstar rating (One Star, or Death Star perhaps?) designation. Reports accompany many of these stocks from "experts". All these reports were very recently written, and in fact - every one I perused was written by a female analyst named Parvathy Krishnan, C.F.A.. Here's a sample of what I found:"

You'll have to go read it... it is worth it in our humble opinion. Looks like there's more than one way to manipulate It!


mikalNewbank and expedient money transfers#1426663/22/06; 23:00:27 Bill Cara: What's the Fed's "NewBank" all about? - March 22, 2006
specie-manRE: Al Capone#1426673/22/06; 23:14:17

Thanks Smeagol,
That was a very entertaining and informative article.

Does anyone here have any idea what rating Morningstar has given to GM stock (I have no idea) ?

contrarianI second that#1426683/23/06; 07:01:01

Good point Smeagol. I further quote from this excellent article exposing hidden agendas:

"The Allied Front Against Gold

To ensure that economic "nature" does not take its course, Central Banks have promulgated a "win at any and all cost" campaign to impinge on gold's price rise - in the face of profligate money printing - for a great many years. The de-basement of the currency has been continuous and is evidenced by the fact that the U.S. Dollar has lost more than 95% of its purchasing power since 1913 - the year the Federal Reserve was formed. The Reagan Administration was the last "good opportunity" that government had to reel in the ever increasing dominance of the Federal Reserve and its march toward ever increasing inflation. In the words of the late, famed Austrian economist, Murray N. Rothbard, when the Reagan-ites came to power,

"There were two fundamental reforms the Reagan Administration could have proposed to end our Age of Inflation. First, either the abolition or the brutal checking of the Fed. Nothing was done, since monetarism wishes to give all power to the Fed and then naïvely urges the Fed to use that power wisely and with self-restraint. Second, the Administration could have followed Reagan's campaign pledge and reinstituted the gold standard. BUT THE FRIEDMANITE MONETARISTS HATE GOLD WITH A PURPLE PASSION AND WISH ALL POWER TO GOVERNMENT FIAT MONEY."

Rothbard knew the Monetarists well. The Monetarists are a group of economists so named because of their preoccupation with money and its effects. Perhaps the most famous of the Monetarists is Milton Friedman who developed much of the Monetarist macro economic theory we learn in academia today. In macroeconomics, "Monetarism" under the leadership of Milton Friedman, its best-known advocate - represents the most renowned phase of the Chicago School of Economics."

mikalFed rate moves with deep undercurrents #1426693/23/06; 07:35:33

No time like present for Fed to pause
Analysis: The economy is slowing, so why the rush to raise rates? - Marketwatch - Greg Robb - March 23
Bringing calm to the scene of Fed in a whirlpool.

mikalDebt "ceiling" shatters the illusion of integrity#1426703/23/06; 08:00:14 $77 BILLION... IN ONE DAY - Ed Henry - March 23, 2006
GoldiloxHUI Watch#1426713/23/06; 10:12:26

301, up 4.38

Once we hit $545 and bounced, the HUI has taken off and breeched the 300 psych level again.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.FREE Gold Information Packet...#1426723/23/06; 11:49:00

CaradocTwo articles#1426733/23/06; 12:18:55

1. At link above, for the first time in a long time, the price of real estate in Tokyo is UP! Could this be an indication that the yen carry trade is ending/ has ended? If so, we now live in a different world that will function with different rules.

2. Another story under "economy" addressed the end of the 2006 Water Conference without language about water being a basic human right. Next conference in 2009. I'll have to relook at Puplava's 2004 article on Blue Gold. If I remember correctly, his approach was to identify possible investment in companies processing and distributing water. Maybe a good idea, but I'd go for a good well or an artesian spring first.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1426743/23/06; 15:18:53">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

THURSDAY Market Excerpts

March 23 (from DowJones) -- COMEX April gold futures lost 90 cents to $550.80, but recouped much of the loss from an early $545.10 bottom.

Gold bounced from its mid-day weakness due to short covering and largely with the help of stronger crude oil and commodities in general, said Jim Quinn, commodity floor analyst with A.G. Edwards.

As the yellow metal was closing, May crude was up $1.83 a barrel, while the Continuous Commodity Index was up 2.31 points to 352.29.

"In gold the last couple of days, we've been seeing lower lows, attempting to hold the $548 level," Quinn said. "Then we failed today and hit some stops. We held $545, which was the next support. There was some dealer buying right around that level, and then we spent the rest of the session trying to claw out way back. A lot had to do the (nearly) $2 rally that we had in the oil market.

"That has almost superceded the weak euro. Some of the weakness in the gold (earlier in the day) was euro- and dollar-related. But with the oil market coming back, there was a short-covering move in the gold market."

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

melda laureMorning star ought to rate Au#1426753/23/06; 18:27:03

Buy at 25$/oz and sell at $50 Zero stars. Economic moat: negative as long as the bankers rule.

The real question ought to be, what was their ratings 6 months ago? A year ago? Back in 2001? Not all these miners are making money hand over fist, and maybe some of those ratings are deserved.

mikalPlanning for flu... and fear#1426763/23/06; 20:38:50 Wall Street Lays Plans in Case Bird Flu Strikes - Adam Shell - March 23, 2006
Analysts see flu-driven safehaven investing as well as bets on outcomes and speculation on the health sector.
Gold's advantage is dispassionate, reliable performance in times of turmoil, man-made and natural, and the "calm" intervals appearing equally sudden.

Ten BearsThe New Rising Sun...Enrico Orlandini#1426773/23/06; 21:10:13


In January, foreign Central Banks accounted for only 20% of all US bond purchases, and for the second consecutive month foreign capital inflows were not enough to cover the money needed to fill the fiscal, budget, and trade gaps.

the terms 'private investors, and 'Caribbean Money Centers' are just euphemisms for the Fed printing press. The sad truth is they really have no other choice.

liquidity. We are floating in it as almost every major economy in the world created money like there was no tomorrow. Now they are all going to cut back, with one notable exception, the United States.

China and Japan are willing players in the Federal Reserve con game whereby the Fed creates massive amounts of debt to buy Asian goods. The Asians take this debt and trade it for commodities that they use to make their economies grow. The only comment I'll make on this subject right now is to say that trees do not grow to the sky. China has even taken the game a step further as they have made significant investments in Peru (iron ore mines), Chile (copper mines), and Brazil (soy bean farms) to name just a few. And why not, the Americans are paying for it! Chile was not invited to this party but has duly noted China's encroachment into Latin America.
I predict that before the end of this decade, and maybe as soon as next year, Chile will do some encroaching of its own, and it will not be a pleasant sight.
In conclusion, the US would be well advised to pay attention to what is going on south of the border instead of shagging after shadows and ghosts in some far off Middle Eastern desert.

mikalMore news not in bad taste#1426783/23/06; 21:57:28 Indulge Your Inner Gold Bug - - 03/23
A fittingly goofy title heads this ragged and dissipated handling of the gold sector. But this and the combination of misstatements and contradictions intended to satisfy a "gold bug's inner indulgence", transforms from what would be pet food into serious food for thought!
Something a "contrarian"(a word murdered in their syntax) or "gold bug" can guiltlessly "indulge" in.
And a humble warning to those who think I, and not the mainstream "experts", will eat my words someday: He that conspire to cook the books will in the end cook his own goose.

TopazDelivery.#1426793/24/06; 04:37:55

You get the feeling yesterdays delivery of 300 Au Contract equivalent Oz's and concurrent erratic Comex action augurs well for the Monthly Au roll-over next week.
Ag has fought the good fight thru March and I'm thinking there's still life in 'ol Aggie yet!

Black BladeStaggering Drop In New Home Sales - Real Estate Bubble Bursting?#1426803/24/06; 08:17:53

New home sales are down over 10% for February. This in contrast of a reported 5% rise in sales of used homes. Expectations were for a drop of about 2% (it is February after all and only 28 days). However, this is a staggering drop in home sales. You should hear the worried talking heads on CNBC spinning some nonsense about "seasonality".

The rapid rise of real estate prices have been of bubble proportions the last few years. The rate of real estate price increases have outpaced the increases in workers wages, and families are simply priced out of the home market. There is a building glut of empty homes in many markets. Meanwhile the Fed continues to raise rates and of course mortgage rates tend to rise in "sympathy" and to reflect the added risk of higher rates in the offing. Pity the poor fools who have "interest only" or "adjustable rate" mortgages.

The news did not hurt the precious metals though - gold stepped up smartly after the announcement gaining over six bux. As always - get outta debt and stay outta debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months' expenses, accumulate gold and silver "portfolio insurance", and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

"Interesting Times" indeed!

- Black Blade

Clink!POG chart brings back memories#1426813/24/06; 08:18:57

Looking at the chart this morning, with its near-linear upward slope, I had a flashback to my childhood days watching the takeoff sequence of Fireball XL5 - remember as it trundled along the rail to end up with that ramp ? The mind is a curious thing, making all sorts of unexpected connections.
Ah, well, back to making a connection with work .....

NedWhat's the PANIC this morning?#1426823/24/06; 08:23:17

Solely the home sales number?
HenriClink#1426833/24/06; 08:24:33

Fireball XL5...wasn't that the old TV show that had marionettes for characters??? I remember switching to Crusader Rabbit when that came on. I hate puppets...perhaps with the cabal antics the analogy does not fall far from the mark though...cheers!
Black BladeReal Estate Bubble #1426843/24/06; 08:29:40

The gruesome details in the Real Estate bubble report this morning - (see link) - it was inevitable and only a matter of time.

"Sales of new U.S. homes plunged 10.5 percent in February, the biggest drop in nearly nine years, while prices fell and the number of homes on the market hit a record high, the government said on Friday in a report signaling significant slowing in the housing market."

In a word - "Grim"

- Black Blade

Black BladeIt's All In The Spin#1426853/24/06; 08:45:37


The sunny disposition of Wall Street economists is clearly a far cry from the behavior of some stock analysts, who in recent years were prosecuted for recommending companies in exchange for lucrative investment banking business.

Still, consider Wall Street's economic outlook for 2006. The nearly unanimous view is that nothing can shake the American economy's resilience: not a housing slowdown, not rising interest rates, not record national deficits, not even unprecedented household indebtedness.

"Good forecasts sell stock, bad ones don't," said Peter Morici, a professor at the University of Maryland's Robert H. Smith School of Business, whose own first-quarter growth outlook is far less optimistic at 3.9 percent. "On Wall Street, you're much better off erring on the positive side than on the negative."

Black Blade: Yep, it's all in the "spin". Black is white, up is down, bad is good, and all is right with the economy. Just gotta put a little "lipstick on this pig" and everything will be OK.

SurvivorThe US Goes As GM Goes; As GM Goes, Does Ford?#1426863/24/06; 09:20:10

GM woes have become legend. Now information indicates that some 17 million Trident V8 engines built by Ford between 1997 and 2003 are starting to blow spark plugs out of the cylinder heads.

This is an emerging issue and the numbers aren't clear yet. The problem is big enough to dominate some Ford discussion groups however, and more than 80 examples are listed at the link above alone.

The retail repair cost is $2000 - $3000. Ford has not acknowledged the problem yet, but they may eventually be forced to cover repairs. If the company had to fix just 10% of the vehicles at $1000 each, the cost to Ford would be around 1.7 billion dollars!

In any case, this issue will do nothing to improve the lot of US auto manufacturers.

Got gold?

- Survivor

The HoopleWhat's up you say? #1426873/24/06; 09:54:19

* Housing was actually off 13.4% y/y and the new home inventory grew to 6.3 months vs. 4.4 a year ago

* GM dumps GMAC finance for pennies on the dollar, al a Conseco

* GM announces add'l 2b. of losses previously undisclosed (derivatives on mortgage portfolio?)

* Fannie postpones fiscal 05 results indefinitely,warns of possible 10 billion add'l losses

* Freddie Mac CEO resigns

* No more M-3 as of TODAY (fortuitous, no?)

* Fed's "robust economy" mantra is a sham, showdown imminent between raising rates further crashing economy or setting off hyperinflation (my guess is the latter)

Other than that all is calm,... oh yeah, there's that oil thing, and that 70 trillion debt thing. Hmm, better get some more shiny from my friendly Denver-based Au/Ag supplier!

GoldiloxPrivatization#1426883/24/06; 10:57:12

CNBC jut did a piece suggesting that investment money is moving from public M&A to more private deals to possibly avoid the hassles of Sarbanes-Oxley.

Having just finished a conference on SarbOx, I'm not surprised. The most basic concerns of IT and finance professionals seems to be "how to know" they're prepared and in compliance.

GoldiloxUp into the close#1426893/24/06; 11:04:16

Au > $560.00
Ag > 10.70

It seems many do not want to head into the weekend short.

FlatlinerAgainst gold, the dollar is collapsing#1426903/24/06; 11:48:35


If Buffett, Williams, and we are right, this history has only begun. The dollar will lead the economy into a "hyperinflationary depression." If we are right, there will be dollars, dollars everywhere, but not a drop of real liquidity.

Eventually, the Bank of Ben Bernanke will do just what it has promised: increasing the money supply as fast as it can, but people will still not be able to pay their bills. Prices for oil, gold, copper, and dinner may soar...while mortgages will go unpaid, houses will be foreclosed, and real incomes will fall. Gasoline prices rose 14 cents in a single week, says the Atlanta paper, but producer prices registered their biggest drop in almost three years, says Bloomberg.

Fl – If you can't pay your debt, you've got problems. If your country can't pay its debt, they raise taxes. Now might be a good time to get out of debt and find your tax shelters.

VoyagerGoldilox #1426913/24/06; 13:19:10

Am working on BB's admonitions to get prepared. Regarding you posts recently on shortages of MRE's, is there a brand would you recommend and where to purchase.

In addition are there books you would recommend on the subject.

Thank you,

GoldiloxMREs#1426923/24/06; 14:03:35

Sorry, I don't buy MREs. I think George Ure has a link to them.
USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1426933/24/06; 15:14:40">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

FRIDAY Market Excerpts

Gold up $10, gains 1% for week

March 24 (from DowJones) -- Gold futures posted a sharp gain Friday due to by fund buying encouraged by several factors - a "catch-up" to recent silver gains, reduced rate-hike expectations after a weak U.S. housing report, the strong tone lately in crude oil, plus chart-based factors, traders and analysts said.

COMEX April gold futures settled up $9.70 to $560.50.

Tim Evans, analyst with IFR Pegaus, said the move "represents a weekly reversal to the upside. By taking out last Friday's high of $558.60 now puts us to the highest price level that we've seen since March 6. We could be headed for the March 3 high of $572.50 as the next significant resistance level."

Beyond this, resistance for April gold could be expected at the $579.50 contract high from Feb. 2. "If we can manage a robust breakout beyond there, then the drumbeat for $600 is going to get a lot louder again," said Evans.

Recent strength in crude oil is another background factor helping gold, said Evans. May crude gained $2.14 Thursday and as of Friday's gold close was up another 37 cents to $64.28 a barrel.

Some traders suggested that the 10.5% fall in U.S. new-home sales in February, to an annual rate of 1.08 million, helped gold by scaling back interest-rate hike expectations. The new-home sales decline was the sharpest decline in nearly nine years.

"The news today indicates the Fed may stop (hiking interest rates) sooner than the market thought," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management. "The bonds are up sharply and perhaps that thought is trailing over into gold."

Federal Open Market Committee members are scheduled to meet Monday and Tuesday.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

Golden LionheartDont't worry....Be happy................#1426943/24/06; 16:30:50

If you owe the bank $1000 and can't pay you have a problem............If you owe the bank $1,000,000 and can't pay then the bank has a problem.

Buy gold and be happy!

TownCrierGold: Historic spike ahead?#1426953/24/06; 16:57:58

"It is common knowledge that the British government sold more than half of the nation's gold reserves at the bottom of the market in mid-1999. It's less well-known why..."

^---(see url)---^

In case you missed it the first time around, USAGOLD is pleased to have Brian Durrant's latest article from the Daily Reckoning as the newest addition to our pages at 'The Gilded Opinion'.


TopazDelivery deux.#1426963/24/06; 17:18:45

I've been watching this now for several years and cannot recall 2 days in a row, in a non-del month where Gold got called for delivery in amounts to match these last two days.

Next Week ...bring it on!

R PowellTopaz#1426973/24/06; 19:12:05

It's only because you have been watching for years that you can now report that these deliveries are not normal. Comparisons over time....leading to experience. Thanks for noticing + reporting. I'd suggest that new ownership of metal which really does not physically leave the Comex warehouses is the usual order of business. I know Comex does NOT supply the physical silver market. But, if gold or silver starts walking out the door, then look out!

I'm presently wrestling with two silver questions. The first is trying to determine how much of the last few months demand might be attributed to the ETF anticipation, whether actual Barclay buying OR speculative buying from the same anticipation. Key thoughts here are "how much" as I do believe that the same global demand for metals of all kinds (precious + base) has supported all metals' prices.

My second concern is whether or not the silver market can withstand speculative attention, whether from Barclay's or any speculative attention which withdraws physical from an already tight situation. I know it will survive any amount of speculation...question is, at what price? Most silver use is industrial so I expect silver to act much as copper has done over the last few years, after too low prices for too long stunted new development + then fierce demand ravaged existing warehouse supply. Most gold held as a store of wealth is most unlikely to be dishoarded now. More will be hoarded. Industrial (jewelry included) gold supply will grow tighter like silver. Excluding store-of-wealth gold from the physical market and I see a market in severe deficit, much like silver + copper. These conditions are not likely to ease in the foreseeable future that I can see..?

Copper prices have tripled. If demand exceeds supply (which it already has) then won't both the gold and silver markets resemble (behave) much has copper has recently. Copper was $0.70 just a few years ago. It's now close to $2.40. I expect it to exceed 4 times that old $0.70 price well before next Christmas (jmho, of course). Both gold + silver have barely doubled. Again, I speak of copper only in anticipation of market behavior since it may be an excellent model for what awaits gold + silver. It has gone steadily upward without a great speculative long position (COT) and with only extremely short lived minor setbacks. Maybe the strongest bulls carry the fewest investors..?
happy weekend

The Invisible HandIOB Information war#1426983/24/06; 20:19:20

vendredi 24 mars 2006

Iran : une bourse pétrolière en euros, improbable?
Il y a eu beaucoup moins de discussions à propos de la Bourse dans les médias de masse que sur l’Internet, particulièrement sur des sites visant à mettre en marché de l’or ou à avancer des théories économiques.I

Iran: an oil bourse in euros, improbable?
There has been far less discussion about the Bourse in the mass media than on the Internet, particularly on sites wanting to promote gold or to advance economic theories.

ski@ R. Powell #142697#1426993/25/06; 01:26:28

Is there a chance that there is some other metal, .... instead of copper, .....that more closely matches the description and usage of silver?? If there was one, would it not make more sense to use it instead of copper for you inquiry?

Metal X.....

Is a silvery-white metal, resistant to corrosion, extremely reflective, used in jewelry, mirrors, electrical connections, ... a specialized metal that is essential to specific applications .... is used in small quantities that make it difficult to recover. Finally, not found in abundance like copper.

Doesn't this sound like a "better match" than copper for comparison purposes? Take a minute to think about this. I did.

Yes, some have compared silver to copper. Others have even used a palladium comparison..... but metal X ...... is Rhodium!

Now it gets even more exciting. Rhodium's January 04' low ... around $380. Recent high .... around $4,030.

Lots MORE to think about now ....


GoldiloxChina's gold reserves double in value#1427003/25/06; 07:16:17,,13132-2102426,00.html


CHINA has put Gordon Brown's investment philosophy to shame by enjoying a near-doubling of the value of its gold reserves.
The People's Republic has gold reserves worth $10.8 billion (£6.2 billion), based on yesterday's $558.60 gold fix in London, compared with about $6.6 billion at the end of 2002, when China last increased its stake.

The Chinese central bank holds 600 tonnes of gold, according to new figures from the World Gold Council, the gold industry's marketing arm.

China almost doubled its gold reserves to the 600 tonne level between 2000 and 2002, at a time when the Chancellor was a bullion seller.

British taxpayers missed out on £3.6 billion (£2.1 billion) worth of gold profits because Mr Brown sold most of the country's reserves during the 1998-2002 gold price slump.

Mr Brown's dismal record is matched only by his counterparts in Switzerland and the Netherlands, which have been among the most active sellers of gold over the past five years.

Switzerland's decision to sell 908.3 tonnes of gold between January 2002 and March 2005 has cost it about $8 billion in forgone profits. Its central bank will argue that the sell-off was part of a strategy to diversify its foreign reserves. Unlike Britain, Switzerland still has a sizeable gold holding of 1,290 tonnes, worth $23.1 billion.

China's fiscal leaders, on the other hand, held on to their bullion investment. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the gold price was at its lowest level in 20 years, but it has since recovered to trade near 25-year highs. The surging price of gold has been driven by uncertainty about the state of the American economy and by booming demand for jewellery.


Of course the headline, which suggests "doubling of value," is only half of the full picture. Anyone who also doubled their holdings in the last five years has quadrupled the value of their gold reserves, as 2x2 still = 4 outside of Washington hedonics.

GoldiloxM3 disappears against a background of unrest#1427013/25/06; 07:35:59


The US Federal Reserve meantime, has ceased publication of our broadest measure of money stocks (M-3) because it was so obviously into the non-linear portion of the monetary expansion curve that it would become obvious to even the most dense of observers. So now that it's gone, we're watching M-2 as 'second best' which is increasing presently at a 4.6% YoY TTM rate.


Can you say "hyperinflation," kiddies? Non-linear? It's never been linear, but the uneducted media and Congress were easy to fool with the slower rising portion of the hyperbola. Even mathematically based economics are subect to optical illusion with some "minor" manipulation.

A small hullabaloo is being raised by Sheen's public support for a new 911 investigation (not to worry, his "questioning authority" will be labeled as treason by the NeoCon parrots), and the hundreds of thousands marching in Phoenix, LA, and other major cities to protest Congress' plan to felonize illegal aliens, the change of social consciousness is overwhelming the lapdog press. One look at the photos from Phoenix shows blocks and blocks of marchers, more than enough to fill the local stadium, and completely dwarfing the downplayed press estimates of "about 10K." I guess the corp/gov solution of turning them all into state-financed slave labor does not sit well with folks who want serious, but humane solutions.

GoldiloxThe Hyperinflationary Depression#1427023/25/06; 07:45:31


The U.S. economy is not growing, it is shrinking, says Walter J. Williams. We are already in recession. Forget stagflation, he adds. What we need to prepare for is "hyperinflationary depression."

We are still quaking from yesterday's revelations, reported at the bottom of our very own Daily Reckoning. We knew the Feds' numbers were bogus. Now, along comes an honest economist, the aforementioned Mr. Williams, with a serious reckoning of how bogus they really are:

Unemployment is not 5% or 6%. Computed the way it used to be, it is twice as high. And the U.S. deficit? If the Feds didn't use Enronesque accounting techniques, it would be around $11 trillion. As for the national debt, Williams says, "The fiscal 2005 statement shows that total federal obligations at the end September were $51 trillion; over four times the level of GDP."

There will be hell to pay for all these statistical prevarications, Mr. Williams believes. And the first payment is likely to be in the imperial currency itself – the dollar.

But yesterday, Ben Bernanke spoke and the dollar rose.

"Market participants do not harbor significant reservations about the economic outlook,'' said the nation's top banker, adding that corporate risk spreads "would seem to be consistent with continuing solid economic growth.''

There is the problem, dear reader. Despite the repeated alarum sounded in these pages, more "market participants do not harbor significant reservations about the economic outlook." What are these market participants thinking? Significant reservations are exactly what they most desperately need and most recklessly lack. You can buy a junk bond and get only 3% more yield than you would get from a U.S. Treasury. Surely, the treasuries are time bombs, but what are the bonds of Iraq or a dreamy They don't even have timers; they could blow up at any moment.

But who knows? And who cares?

Both junk and non-junk are calibrated in dollars. The dollar itself is the currency about which one should harbor the most significant reservations.


While Congress has imposed SarbOx on corporate governance, government itself happily dances to the ENRON shuffe, the world's largest exercise in hedonism (aka 'instant gratification'). But it is bound to end up one of the largest example of Hubris because, like with any pyramidie scheme, no one really cares until AFTER the crash and burn (except the nut-jobs and consiracy advocates).

GoldiloxGOP uses Echelon software to time financial trades#1427033/25/06; 08:30:14


Washington—March 9, 2006——U.S. intelligence sources within the Special Operations Group (SOG) are reporting that National Security Agency (NSA) computers have been downloading financial and personal files of all American citizens as a result of upgrades to the Echelon satellite network and software program which is part of the Prosecutor's Management Information System (PROMIS).

SOG says that NSA also has a "7-10 second lead time" which effectively affords the agency the opportunity to delay the release of currency, stock and bond sales transactions which permits a criminal advantage to agency officials and other high-level associates who game the system of the world's financial markets.

The intelligence sources say that NSA utilizes the lead time delay in virtually every major financial market in the world, as brokerage computers around the globe are connected to satellites which are vulnerable to the NSA software program, that is, capable of being manipulated.

The intelligence revelations may shed further light on how such financial transactions permitted those with prior knowledge of the September 11 attacks to profit from the deaths of 3,000 people at the World Trade Center via insider trading.

MSNBC host Keith Olbermann (8 pm & Midnight nightly) partially confirmed the NSA spy reports Monday, revealing that GOP Senate Judiciary Chairman Arlen Specter is now aware of new revelations regarding additional activities concerning the Bush Administration spy program; however, GOP senators are reportedly rejecting an investigation for fear of what might become public knowledge.

The NSA citizen-based financial and industrial dragnet is also reportedly being used to spy on all American domestic and foreign financial transactions, including downloading bank accounts and intra bank currency transactions—both foreign and domestic.

According to national security expert and federal whistleblower Thomas Heneghan, leaked intelligence reports are alleging that U.S. media executives and talk show hosts were given favors and tips on currency movements along with the ability to unobtrusively trade offshore using the Singapore Stock Exchange (SYMEX) in order to provide cover for their transactions away from U.S. jurisdiction.

Heneghan said that NBC—General Electric [GE owns 80 % of NBC] is heavily involved in the offshore trading activity according to the intelligence reports.

According to the sources, congressional investigators have discovered that media executives are also allowing the NSA a 7-10 second delay mechanism or trigger which allows the national security group to have some control over content in media reports and what is said by certain hosts, controversial guests and other individuals during national broadcasts.


After all, it's an "information economy". Under the cover of "battling porn", the government is in court to force Google to hand over ALL private search records so they can categorize citizen "loyalty" based on what we access on the internet.

GoldiloxSilver soars on ETF, but will luster last?#1427043/25/06; 08:38:48


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Prospects of an exchange-traded fund have pushed futures prices for silver to a more than two-decade high, but the launch of a new investment vehicle may dull some of the metal's shine.
A silver exchange-traded fund in registration from Barclays Global Investors took a step closer to its launch Tuesday, when the Securities and Exchange Commission approved a rule change that would allow the product to list on the American Stock Exchange.

The ETF's registration statement submitted by Barclays has not yet taken effect. In other words, the product "hasn't been cleared to be available to the marketplace," said Barclay's spokeswoman Christine Hudacko.

However, "with the recent SEC announcement, the chances of the ETF approval rises to 90%," said Paul Mladjenovic, a New Jersey-based certified financial planner at PM Financial Services.

And metals-based ETFs have to "have the physical metal in their possession and that obviously means that they have to buy a lot of silver," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities.

The ETF would be backed up by 130 million ounces of silver initially, according to Peter Spina, an analyst at, just as gold ETFs are backed up by physical bullion kept in storage. That is about where current inventories on the Commodities Exchange division of the New York Mercantile Exchange stand.

"We should see the ETF suck up a lot of silver, and this has the potential to move silver [prices] to the mid-teens this year," he said.

DruidGoldilox (3/25/06; 07:35:59MT - msg#: 142701)#1427053/25/06; 08:59:06

Goldi, do you have a link that provides a pretty good overview concerning the change in policy concerning the immigrants. Thanks. I've been away awhile and trying to get caught up. Well, instead of tracking M3, go long every market and try to figure out maximums. I've always guessed that the offshore apparatus that has been put into place is being used as a dumping ground to modulate price behavior in our markets so as we don't run into another "Irrational Excuberance" episode. This is what I believe is behind "stockgate" and why there is no major enforcement. They can no longer hide price inflation so now they need to try and harness the rate of speed to where it doesn't become runaway hyper-inflation just yet. Take care.
GoldiloxImmigration#1427063/25/06; 10:27:49

@ Druid,

Most of what I have seen on this subject has been on the vacuous tube.

Here's one opinion: Illegal Immigrants Bill, by Roger Mahony

and some coverage of the rallies:,,-5706748,00.html

It seems the numbers are bit higher than the TV stories indicate.

GoldiloxHyperinflation#1427073/25/06; 10:35:10

I don't think they can do anything to "harness" the speed of hyperinflation, as long as they continue to promote it with Choppa Ben's continuation of Sir GS monetary policies.

An early forming hyperbola looks linear to the untrained eye, especially when "hedonic" adjustments are applied to the numbers, but once the slope crosses unity, it accelerates rapidly to infinity, and no amount of hedonic smoke and mirrors will suffice to cover the trail.

They can spin it ad nauseum, but it does nothing to address the fundamental issues.

That's why JS keeps reminding us that gold is going to $610 and $1650 in the reasonably near future.

GonlyoldMetal X#1427083/25/06; 10:45:08

@ Ski

How about LEAD?

I'm not a commodities trader, but If I was, I would be suspicious when no one seems to talk about a specific metal: and more so when a metal gets a bad name. I suspect that this may be a sleeper.

ski@Gonlyold#1427093/25/06; 12:15:53

I like your contrarian thinking. When everyone is ignoring something it often makes sense to take a good contrarian look. As you have correctly pointed our, lead fills this bill. Jim Rogers has talked about it.

In this way, I believe that I was the first and only one to mention Uranium on this board when it was $7.90 a few years ago. I also mentioned the EXACT moment when the price broke to the upside. I don't talk about it anymore here as this is a PM board.

The above being said, my first post of the day was directed at Sir Powell's specific silver comparison question. Rhodium is more like silver than is lead IMHO.

TopazRich.#1427103/25/06; 12:25:32

The constant comfort we as Au-Ag metal types draw now is the potential for just such an uptick as seen in Cu and Rh recently.
I'm expecting this Month roll-over to tarnish Ag's run-up a little, but with 500 OI it still could giddy-up beforehand.
The WAG has so much influence on physical Gold now I'd also be expecting a Comex raid on physical if at all they (WAG) don't or haven't recently ponied up the Metal ...and it's those out of sync del'y notices that MAY provide a heads-up in this regard.
It's all good fun Rich, and there are better things to be doing on a W-end, best to you!

OvSA few thoughts.#1427113/25/06; 12:40:11

If it is going to be
hyperinflation, I am
certain, that that is
the most advantagious
strategy for us. This
merchantalistic compo-
nent of the US leader-
ship not only can run
cicles around the rest
of our leadership, but
the rest of the world
as well. They have been
doing it for eons.
Hyperinflation is going
to be the best for us as
compared what will be the
result for the rest of the
So, this time around, I'll
bet we all (as in the whole
wide world) will end up in a
lot of do-do, but we'll ser-
The next stage is what will be
a movie with terminators on both
sides. Unleash the Asian Tiger,
or Dragon, if you wish, and all
hell will be unleashed. After all,
how many lessons have we taught them
over the years?

From the Holy Bible, printed for the
Universities of Oxford and Cambridge,

There are six things which the Lord
hateth. Yea, seven which are an abo-
mination unto him:
Haughty eyes, a lying tongue, and hands
that shed innocent blood; an heart that
deviseth wicked imaginations, feet that
be swift in running to mischief; a false
witness that uttereth lies, and he that
soweth discord among brethren.

CometoseLBMA volume #s#1427123/25/06; 12:59:12

I thought these were posted here somewhere .....
Does anyone know where they can be found ?

968@ Cometose#1427133/25/06; 16:02:59

The link you asked for...
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A world of gold at your fingertips...#1427143/25/06; 16:38:45">gold -- a global calling card
GoldiloxFew thoughts#1427153/25/06; 17:16:52

@ OvS,

Spoken with the true arrogance of theocracy. Especially the quote which numbers six things, but lists seven. It seems the "author" uses the same hedonistic math as the FED and BLS.

"Heaven-ordained" potentates never believe in Hubris until it comes home to roost, as the piper eventually gets paid.

The Invisible HandIOB (and M3) Information War – the month of the lunatics#1427163/25/06; 18:36:03

Retour sur le "mois des fous", M3 & IOB
Pour notre part, nous ne pouvons que redire et répéter l’importance considérable que nous attachons à l’aspect psychologique, lequel engendre la perception, laquelle détermine les réactions, les actes, les décisions, lesquels déterminent les faits bruts. Les faits, comme on le voit, sont tout au bout de la cha"ne, après plusieurs traitements, — notamment celui de la communication, facteur éminemment redoutable de notre époque, qui fait circuler l’information et détermine la perception
L’important est, littéralement, ce que l’Histoire est en train de nous tramer.
Voici l’extrait que nous voulons rappeler :
« L’intérêt de toutes ces choses, notamment de la thèse sur "la fin de l’Occident…" mais aussi du discours du 15 février de Ron Paul, est effectivement de s’inscrire dans le grand courant d’une tension que l’on perçoit montante et bouillonnante, et nullement dans leur exclusivité ni dans l’événement économique qu’elles prétendent décrire. L’intérêt est, justement, de voir grandir une grande tendance psychologique, animée par la perception d’une tragédie possible, extrêmement diverse et qui n’est pas sous contrôle d’une seule puissance (comme l’était l’attaque de l’Irak) ; et l’intérêt est encore plus d’identifier cette tendance, d’en découvrir les chatoiements et les potentialités. Cette diversité du drame possible, la diversité des thèmes qui l’animent (pétrole, nucléaire, dollar, USA, Europe, sans oublier les nouvelles sur Internet), voilà les facteurs qui déterminent cette montée de la tendance psychologique et aident à l’identifier. C’est là que se trouve le nœud inexplicable, — qu’on ne peut ni deviner par avance ni expliquer par la seule analyse rationnelle après, — de cette sorte de tragédie en train de se nouer.

I'm too lazy to translate this on this Sunday morning, but the title says this is a crazy month to which the authors ( - in Fléron, BELGIUM) return.

The first snipped paragraph says that it is the psychological impact, which causes, which determines the reactions, acts and decisions, which determine the brute facts. The facts are therefore at the end of a long process.

The second snipped paragraph says that History is in the making and then quotes its own (I think) February 23 report which says that that here is not only the end of the west thesis but also the February 15 Ron Paul speech (The Invisible Hand: of course, in February, Paul's M3 bill had not yet been submitted I suppose) showing that a TRAGEDY is in the making. That's indeed the psychological aspect.

Got gold?

NedHey TIH ! How are you? I see you are posting a lot on the IOB#1427173/25/06; 19:20:06

Here's news! Why there will not be trouble in Iran......southeast Asia will not allow it.

""When Bush tells India, 'You don't need to import gas from Iran,' that's totally illogical," said a Georgian scholar based in Bologna. "The [alleged Iranian] bomb is a pretext," said an Iranian oil executive based in London. "The Americans don't want Iran to develop, and that's equally true of China and Venezuela. We need to talk about security through knowledge."

Pipelineistan actors are actively discussing the possibility of limited US strikes against, for instance, the Bushehr plant, as was implied by a recent belligerent statement of the US ambassador to the UN, John Bolton.

But the general consensus is that an agreement of sorts will be reached in the next few months - with no UN sanctions against Iran. Asia does not want an Iran battered by the West; Iran, after all, is part of West Asia.

Manochehr Mohammadi, Iran's deputy foreign minister, may have spoken for all of Asia when he said, "Any sanctions will badly reflect more on our immediate neighbors than on ourselves." "

More at link.....

GoldiloxForeclosures chilling many U.S. housing markets#1427183/25/06; 19:27:50


The American dream has some cracks around the edges, and they are worsening. RealtyTrac, a California-based firm that tracks the state of the national housing market, says default notices to bank ownership, i.e., foreclosures, rose 45 percent in January from the same period a year earlier. There was one new foreclosure for every 1,117 U.S. homes.
Rockford and Winnebago County has at least 204 foreclosures, while Stephenson County has 43. In contrast, Boone County, where explosive growth is most noticeable, had about 20 foreclosures.

RealtyTrac said, although the number of foreclosures is low from a historical perspective, it has been rising steadily in the past year. With the rate of appreciation dropping and interest rates rising, a number of economists and industry observers expect the pace of foreclosures to speed up this year.

The highest foreclosure rates, according to MSN Real Estate, on a per capita basis are Georgia, Nevada and Colorado. In Georgia, the rate leaped 88 percent in January from the previous year. The publication also reported Georgia was No. 5 for the total number of foreclosures.

Nevada came in second with 1,795 properties going into foreclosure; one for every 483 households and 2.5 times the number reported a year before. Colorado was No. 3 with a 36 percent rise (3,747 properties) or one for every 488 households.

Realtors report the hardest-hit places appear to be houses in lower-income urban neighborhoods, primarily African-Americans and Hispanics. The states with the biggest total number of foreclosures are: Texas (14,669), Florida (10,334) and California (9,354).

In many of these cases, the higher numbers were a function of population and not any evidence of homebuyers being overextended. In California, for instance, the rate of default was still below the national average.

"There are definitely more foreclosures out there," said Duane Duffy of Metro Brokers Duffy & Associates in Littleton, Colo. When he took a client out to look at homes in a part of Denver, "one out of every four homes we were looking at seemed to be a foreclosure," he said.

John Tuccillo, of JTA Inc., a real estate company in Arlington, Va., commented: "You have a lot of people who stretched to get into a house."

So what is causing this spreading collapse of the U.S. housing market? cites prices disconnected from fundamentals. Home values are inflated way beyond any logical relationship to rents or salaries. Rents in the San Francisco area are less than half what mortgage payments are. Salaries can't cover mortgages, except in the immediate future by using adjustable interest-only loans.

Another factor is that interest rates are going back up. If they go from 5 percent to 7 percent, that's a 40 percent increase in the amount of interest the buyer must pay. House prices would have to drop proportionately to compensate. In the San Francisco area, some 82 percent of recent loans are adjustable. That means a big hit every time interest rates rise. It will only get worse as more adjustable rate lenders turn up the monthly payments to cover the higher rates.

A significant factor is a torrent of risky "home equity loans." An adjustable-rate loan of this type lacks any specific limits on interest payments. It could cause the monthly payment to double without much warning.

Other factors affecting this situation are large job losses. In San Francisco, some 300,000 jobs are gone, the worst percentage job loss in the past 60 years, coupled with salary declines. Salaries in the Bay Area reportedly have skidded back to 1997-98 levels, aggravated by population loss. San Francisco is losing population faster than any other city in the U.S. Much of that is due to outsourcing of professional jobs as employers of technical workers realize they can get the work done in India for 20 percent of what they pay American workers.

Besides these influences, NASDAQ is only 40 percent of the 5,000 it stood at the peak of the stock market bubble. In the stock market extreme use of leverage (using other people's money to make money) is common. The method amplifies gain all right, but it amplifies losses as well.

There's also a shortage of first-time buyers and a surplus of speculators. Nationally, 25 percent of the houses sold last year were bought on speculation. Today, you can buy a house with more than 100 percent financing. The extra amount is to cover closing costs and other expenses. No money down. This practice is predicated on the assumption that housing will soar ever higher, and appreciation will cover the interest costs.

Government lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are being made to tighten up their sloppy lending practices. They will not be able to keep buying low-quality loans from banks, and money available for houses is dropping.


The piper is coming to collect on all those cheap money mortgages. Dubya's "ownsership society" is showing its true colors.

NedHmmmm? Gold might be whacked in Iran not in violation???#1427193/25/06; 19:38:52,,-5711225,00.html

IAEA to do inspections soon, "rankled" by US assertions:


"The International Atomic Energy Agency - the U.N. nuclear watchdog - is clearly rankled by the U.S. assertions just days ahead of a trip by IAEA inspectors to Natanz, the site of Iran's known enrichment efforts.

IAEA officials normally refuse to be identified as such when discussing sensitive topics such as disputes with leading IAEA board members, such as the United States.

But reflecting exasperation, a senior agency official dropped such reservations Saturday as he called the U.S. claims that an agency briefing on the advances made by Iran on enrichment was a bombshell ``pure speculation and misinformation.''

``It comes from people who are seeking a crisis, not a solution'' to the confrontation over Iran, the official said.

The senior IAEA official did not offer details on the spat."

....what? The US administration looking for a 'crisis', crisis? what crisis?

NedGold might be whacked IF Iran not in violation ??#1427203/25/06; 19:40:38

(Sorry, correctly re-word the question)
The Invisible HandNo more M3 = No more GPS#1427213/25/06; 20:02:38

The British press doesn't look very appealing this morning, so one more snip from the Belgian article on the abolition of the publication of M3

A propos de M3
24 Mars 2006 : M3 n’est plus publié par la Réserve fédérale US — Le monde n’a plus aucune information fiable sur la valeur réelle du Dollar
Pour prendre une image simple, c’est un peu comme si à la veille d’une guerre, le Pentagone supprimait le guidage GPS, y compris pour ses propres alliés.

Relating to M3
March 24 2006 : M3 is no more being published by the Fed – The world has no more reliable information about the real value of the dollar.
To take a simple image, it's as if on the eve of a war, the Pentagon would suppress the GPS guiding, including for its own allies
Who's crazy? Me or Double-You?

GoldiloxSuppressed technology and financial freedom#1427223/25/06; 21:54:48


When Tesla invented the giant dynamos for George Westinghouse, and they were safely in the hands of the corporate oligarchs, it was touted as a miraculous move forward. When he then began to research further into electrical technology, risking that oligarchic monopoly, he became a subject of ridicule, official sabotage, and completely backward "conservative" spin. His lab records were confiscated from his family within hours of his death.

Oil Oligarchy and its political strangle hold on "mercantilism" has reacted similarly to any challenge to its superiority, to the point of illegally suppressing energy alternatives and research into the same. Any technology which doesn't pay homage to their political monopoly is spun as fanciful, and no mainstream investor will touch it, for even if it is viable, it will be killed by black ops as politically unacceptable.

NASA valiantly defends totally outmoded and disproved theories of origins and nature of the Solar System, because the masses would be tempted to question authority if their religious and scientific dogma is challenged by way of the efforts of independent researchers. Thus they hide the evidence from Deep Impact, and turn more and more of their budget over to black ops, so the funding public has "no right" to view the data. They also use their "public funded" supercomputers and imposed media delays to ensure their masters' advantage in "fixed" free markets.

What we're witnessing in the financial world is the same intrigue. Much "political capital", as Dubya calls it, has been invested in the paper/digital system of bankster over-lording, and deviations from that will be dealt with in their best "Spanish Inquisition" modality. The Inquisition was not about "heresy" as much as its challenge to the "Divine Right of Kings" to take their vassals' property as their own and then send them off to die for the "glory of the King."

Freedom is great theoretical concept, but those who have power want nothing like that for their constituents, as it erodes their own power base. Thus we get PA I and II, and an administration that uses supercomputer technology not for research, but to manage the incredible volume of data needed to spy on every citizen's political leanings. Courts only "fine" sacrificial Wall St. violators a "tithe" of their plunder as a way to fund their own lucrative budgets, but do nothing to stop widespread practices like naked shorting and trading on "insider information".

If the dollar experiences the rapid decline that so many are predicting, gold-bugs can certainly expect to see their "freedom" as gold owners forfeited where ever TPTB can infringe, as it's the power base that matters most of all to them. Roosevelt proved that in the "deflationary warm-up exercise" of 1933.

A lot of news has recently suggested that TPTB world-wide are under siege from a public that is fed up with their prevarication, profiteering, and politicking with their childrens' lives. The backlash will, of course, be swift and unmerciful, as one would expect from any theocracy that claims "divine ordination".

mikalNo more M3 AND THEN WHAT?#1427233/25/06; 22:01:13 Handy Blueprint Of World Order - Douglas Herman - March 25, 2006
To what extent 3(as in M3) is a symbolic Illuminati number should be clear to anyone who's studied their occult methodology or the meticulous layout of the District of Columbia.
Financial, political or geopolitical "events" are sometimes accompanied by strange, seemingly illogical official acts like end of M3 openess. Likewise, government(and banking) officials with hidden power depicted in this heirarchical "blueprint", believe they can afford to play fast and loose with the people they're sworn to serve. So the statistics we see or don't see could also be ritualistic acts in their larger drama of blackmagic, with layers of meanings such that M3 out could precede something much larger, or have some other association significant to their archaic system.

mikalWag the bird#1427243/25/06; 22:42:41 Companies Determined To Hustle Bird Flu Vaccines - Patricia Doyle PH.D - 03/23/06
Confiscation can be inflation, capital gains tax on paper profits, royalties on miners, confiscation of land, restrictions on land use, job loss, etc. or even bird flu. With the Bush administration reserving the power to quarantine anyone with "flu-like symptoms", Wall Street preparing to shift investment strategies and pharmaceutical lobbies blanketing Capital hill like locusts, a human pandemic seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy. There is even a story out describing a theory that bird flu was created by government.
It's impossible to calculate the human and financial loss
of a repeat of the Great Influenza, but impacts can be minimized by preparing as you would for any disaster, as Black Blade would say.

The Invisible HandDefinition of M3#1427253/25/06; 23:49:59

What is M3?

As I understand it, there are three sorts of money: common currency, giro/checking/transfer/clearing money and quasi money.

common currency = the green greenbacks

giro/checking/transfer/clearing money = the money in bank accounts which is immediately withdrawable

quasi-money = the money in bank accounts which is withdrawable within 12 months.

The first two constitute the money supply in the strict sense, which is called M1.
The three together constitute the money supply in the extended sense and this is called M3.

I am translating from Dutch. Are the English terms I am using correct?

The Invisible HandFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia#1427263/26/06; 01:57:25

M3 refers to the amount of cash in circulation, the amount in checking or demand deposit accounts plus savings accounts, money market accounts, CDs and foreign-currency holdings.
Hah, I answer my own questions.

Black BladeMoney Supply#1427273/26/06; 07:16:47

Money Supply

M-O = Currency in circulation
M-1 = M-O + Checking Accounts
M-2 = M-1 + CD's under $100M
M-3 = M-2 + CD's over $100K + Repos + other large FED open market transactions.

This should over it. The reason why the Fed does not want to release the M3 data is obvious. If taken seriously by enough people then "faith and credit" in the monetary system would be lost and the US dollar would simply fall into a death spiral. In the meantime the "man behind the curtain" keeps the illusion intact.

- Black Blade

Chris PowellHowe and Landis: Now they tell us -- BIS confirms rigging gold prices#1427283/26/06; 09:24:37

Latest GATA dispatch.

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GoldiloxM3#1427293/26/06; 10:34:55


Thanks for the succinct definitions. They demonstrate exactly why M3 omission is important, and why the FED's excuse of "not publishing them due the added expense" is horse hooey! A list of repos and open market transactions is probably a two-man-hour compiliation as an addition to M2. Any bank that says they can't "afford" two man-hours a quarter is outright lying, and obviously excluded from Sarbanes-Oxley.

GoldiloxCity of Gold Conference#1427303/26/06; 13:22:05


The 4th Dubai City of Gold Conference, to be held on the 24th-25th April at the Park Hyatt was announced at a press conference earlier today, by Mr. Fuad Nonoo, Chairman, Conference organizing Committee.

Mr. Jeffrey Rhodes, General Manager, Standard Bank, Mr. Ahmed Bin Sulayem, COO, DMCC, Mr. Tawhid Abdullah, Chairman, Dubai Gold and Jewellery Group and Mr. Fuad Nonoo, Chairman of the Conference organising Committee.

The City of Gold conference will set the stage for further development of the industry, by addressing vital topics that will enable the industry to lead the road to innovation. The key focus areas of the conference will be Marketing, Innovation, Education and Trade Finance which have been carefully chosen to facilitate sustained and increased growth for the industry.

The conference is recognized globally as the only one of its caliber to be held in the region, that seeks to address the challenges faced by the jewellery industry as a whole. It is a global meet for all players within the jewellery industry, providing insights and testimonials of successful strategies.

Having gained the support of the local government, the conference will showcase industry development in various emerging markets, including China, India, Iran, Europe, Africa, America and the Middle East.

GoldiloxWikipedia#1427313/26/06; 13:33:54

@ TIH,

I've noticed some online authors find Wikipedia's acuracy suspect, and perhaps their omission of FED actions from the M3 definition is indicative of why.

mikal@Goldilox#1427323/26/06; 16:13:12 Belatedly, Britannica Lambastes Wikipedia Findings | Tech News on ZDNet - Candace Lombardi - March 24, 2006 - Encyclopedia Brittanica has reopened the debate over how it's accuracy stacks up against it's online rival, Wikipedia
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A special combo of assets and info to ease your introduction to the fine world of gold ownership#1427333/26/06; 16:25:33">gold ownership starter kit
mikalOpen secrets#1427343/26/06; 16:33:11,10801,109889,00.html?source=x10,10801,109889,00.html?source=x10 Government offshore report becomes political hot potato - Computerworld - Patrick Thibodeau - House Democrats want a Commerce Dept. report on the effects of outsourcing released
mikalGold makes the grade#1427353/26/06; 17:32:53

The Current Gold Market Sentiment - Forex News Update - March 27, 2006 - Gold makes the grade. Many are called but few are chosen.
GoldiloxIf property falters, consider gold#1427363/26/06; 17:56:39


For those who have been gleefully watching property prices soar in recent years, and for those left wondering whether they will be able to afford a home, the news is the same: real estate prices are likely to remain very flat in the short term before declining, predicts Sebastien Leblond, a senior adviser of Financial Partners International (FPI). He and others believe the property market is due for a correction in many parts of the world, beginning with the United States and also in England and Australia. Inevitably, Thailand will be affected.

''The thing that will make the property market go down in my opinion is basically people getting into debt. The percentage of debt per family is rising dramatically.''

Those who are looking for an opportunity to buy property at a reasonable price should search the secondary market, he says. ''I think the opportunity will be in the second-hand market because what will happen is that people who bought property, if prices go down then a lot of them will default on their debts, and that will create a market to buy second-hand.''


Interesting perspective . . .

mikalMomentum gets a move on#1427383/26/06; 18:24:39

Gold Doesn't Depend on Dollar Strength Anymore - The Economic Times - March 27
"Gold in it's insurance role in a portfolio attracts ample interest"

TownCrierRoadmap for free float of the Indian rupee#1427393/26/06; 18:37:11

INDIAN Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, unlike some of his predecessors, is not in the habit of making casual remarks and then recanting it when the dirt hits the ceiling. So when he referred to the full convertibility of the Indian rupee – pointing out that it was time to revisit the issue ... the markets took serious note of it and reacted positively.

The Sensex, the benchmark index on the Bombay Stock Exchange, flared and broke yet another record, crossing the 11,000-mark.

Days after Singh's remarks about the need to take a fresh look at the question of capital account convertibility of the rupee – in effect, a free float of the currency – the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country's central bank, announced the setting up of a committee to chalk out a roadmap.

The committee [is] to be headed by former deputy governor of the RBI, S.S. Tarapore -- who had in 1997 headed a similar committee, and had recommended full convertibility of the rupee in a three-year span...

It is expected to submit its report by the end of July.

The first edition of the Tarapore committee had recommended certain pre-conditions – including reduction in fiscal deficit (to less than 3%), lower inflation (to below 5%), a reduction in the bad debts of banks, and deregulated interest rates – but the government of the day had to hastily abandon the recommendations a year later, following the Asian financial crisis.

...But no government in India – or for that matter in other emerging economies – had the courage to ‘revisit the issue’ all these years.

Singh, a former governor of the RBI, is one politician who has all the right credentials to take up the contentious issue.

The economist-turned-politician initiated the economic reforms programme in India in 1991, when he became the finance minister. India was facing a huge foreign exchange crisis -- having a few months earlier pledged part of its gold reserves to prevent a default on a foreign loan -- forcing Singh to go in for drastic reforms.

...for India to seriously tackle its enormous problems -- poverty, lack of urban and rural infrastructure, and joblessness -- the economy has to grow by between 10 and 12 per cent annually for the next 20 years.

...Singh noted that investments amounting to about $1.5 trillion would be needed over the next five years to ensure just eight per cent growth.

Much of the investments needed to ensure 10- 12 per cent GDP (gross domestic product) growth in India can only come from international financial giants, especially pension funds and insurance companies. Most state governments are broke, and Indian domestic firms are not capable of generating such huge sums.

...India is a hugely uninsured market, with 80 per cent of the one billion-population still not having any kind of insurance coverage, and a whopping 95 per cent of population not having health coverage.

...Not even 10 per cent of India's 300 million-strong workforce is covered by a pension scheme.

...Foreign banks are equally bullish about India and continue to plough money into the country, despite the plethora of restrictions. The latest to announce multi-million-dollar investments is UK-based Barclays Plc, which has invested about $150 million in India to strengthen its investment banking operations.

...International banks are also keen on setting up retail branches in the country. Barclays is waiting for the RBI's approval for opening new branches in India. A few months ago, German giant, Deutsche Bank, announced a major retail foray, establishing nearly 10 branches in the major metros.

The Netherlands-based ING group – which has a presence in banking, mutual funds and insurance – is also looking at growing its presence in the Indian financial services sector. ING group chief executive Michel Tilmant, said earlier in the month that the group had ambitious plans for India, and also hoped to earn excellent returns from its investments here.

But HSBC Holdings Plc, the UK-based banking giant, has done just that: it has had fabulous returns on its investments in UTI Bank...

^---(from url)---^

Back on the topic of the massive funds needed for infrastructure improvement and GDP growth, and more particularly, on the source of these funds, it should never be overlooked or forgotten that the citizens of India have, collectively, copious gold in their personal possession.

At such time as the 'Thoughts!' of ANOTHER bear fruit at the end of FOA's "Gold Trail", a massive revaluation of gold will certainly go a long way toward putting extraordinary levels of newfound (newly actualized/realized) purchasing power into the hands of the Indian population. Having such a low standard of living currently, and thus having ample headroom for improvement, it becomes easy to see how India's population, powered by revalued gold, can become the driving force for funding much of their own GDP growth, and also weaning the world off of its "reliance" upon the indebted U.S. population as the global "consumer of last resort".

International banks that are even remotely clued-in to such a prospective shift in fate and wealth certainly would be seen, as we see here, to be lining up for their share of the service-sector pie, catering to the world's nouveau riche.


GoldiloxChina should tap FX reserves to buy gold - banker#1427403/26/06; 20:10:24

BEIJING, March 27 (Reuters) - China should use part of its fast-growing foreign exchange reserves to buy gold as it seeks to adjust the asset mix to hedge against risk, a Bank of China official was quoted on Monday as saying.

Analysts say China has been gradually diversifying away from the dollar -- although fears of a collapse in the U.S. currency will prevent any dramatic shift. Chinese officials have denied reports they plan to sell current dollar assets in the reserves.

"China should appropriately reduce the proportion of dollars in its foreign exchange reserves while increasing the proportion of currencies such as the euro," the Financial News quoted Wang Yuanlong, a director at Bank of China's Australian operations, as saying.

"We can use part of the foreign exchange reserves to buy gold, which would help make the reserves more diversified and help guarantee and increase their value," said Wang, former economist at Bank of China, the country's largest foreign exchange bank.

China's foreign exchange reserves swelled 34 percent in 2005 to a record $818.9 billion, but the central bank has not disclosed the composition.

Last month, state media quoted Wang as saying China should ideally hold between $300 billion and $400 billion in foreign exchange reserves.

China has been a big buyer of U.S. government bonds, helping to finance a heavy U.S. current-account deficit and to keep American interest rates low. Investors watch closely for any sign that Beijing might shift the government's investment mix.


More talk about changing the reserve mix.

Paper AvalancheInflection Point#1427413/26/06; 20:20:31

Without fail the POG (and POS) is ceremoniously given a swift kick in the pants in conjunction with every FOMC meeting (this week - tomorrow and Tuesday). In light of such recent and predictable patterns, how big of an indicator regarding the immediate direction of gold's intrinsic worth would it be that the first Bernanke meeting is not met with a traditional thrashing of POG and POS as the markets have grown accustom during AG's reign?

Is it possible that the discontinuation of the M3 metric will create an unintended market-faction of those who simply seek to preserve their current wealth so as to trump any lip service provided by the fed going forward?

Interesting week ahead.

I believe that the POG / POS response to whatever statement is made by the fed will be the key indicator of whether we are at a crossroads in monetary policy.

I may be wrong. I often am.

Take care.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Disturbing Trends -- 2006 Update#1427423/26/06; 23:01:35

'Disturbing Trends: Why Gold Is the Buy of a Generation'
by Michael J. Kosares

(an excerpt) -- This mini-study which first appeared some nine years ago in my book, The ABCs of Gold Investing, explains in a nutshell why anyone would want to own gold. The world economy is on a collision course with the dollar. There will come a time in the not too distant future when investment portfolios will be judged on a single criteria -- whether or not physical gold in the form of bullion and coin is represented. When that day arrives, whether "the reckoning" comes in the form of an explosive one-time event like a financial crash, or in the form of a slow, but sure, economic withering, there will be few avenues of escape for the ordinary investor -- save gold in the form of coins and bullion. Already, the gold market's steady four-year up trend has demonstrated that something has changed in the composite international economic psyche. Where once the dollar was king, gold has resumed its traditional role as the primary repository of international wealth.

So, is buying gold now comparable to buying it at $35 in 1968? Are the right elements in place to fuel a rise comparable to what happened in the 1970s when gold rocketed from the $35 benchmark to almost $900 per ounce?

Many top notch analysts say that it is...


Click URL for this newly updated preview -- representing just some of the fine info available to those who request our FREE Information Packet!

TownCrierMK's back at it. . .#1427433/26/06; 23:16:28

Here's a sneak peak at MK's re-invigorated Market Update!

(4/1/06) -- "Career gold bulls may wince at the new found popularity of the orphan they alone once cherished. But we believe they should choke back the impulse to exit the market on the grounds of it being overcrowded. If we are right about the problems facing the dollar--and indeed, about those confronting most of the managed currencies that compete with the dollar--the bull side of the gold market is destined to become far more crowded than it already has." --James Grant, Grant's Interest Rate Observer

Overview: The Grant comment above made in December of 2004 proved prophetic as gold since has become the "currency" of choice in the fast-moving world of modern finance. Where cautious money managers and investors might have hedged their bets in euro or dollar bonds in years past, they are now opting for positions in the physical metal, gold ETFs, and bullion bank gold deposits. This dramatic change in the bastions of money has created a whole new gold market substantially different than anything we have seen before. Gold has come of age and the small private investor who owns it has been among the beneficiaries.

As Grant says, it has indeed become far more crowded on the bull side of the gold market and our company may have become a bit more high-brow than we are accustomed to. Hardly a day goes by when some mainline Wall Street firm doesn't come out with a bullish forecast on gold, the most recent being Merrill Lynch. Last Friday it announced (in a leaner than lean public announcement) that gold should outperform equities for the next few years and hit the $850 mark. Some weeks before, the giant French bank, Credit Agricole, predicted a gold spike in the $2000 range based on massive short covering on the part of the bullion banks. (Please see Notable & Quotable below).

But even more impressive than the financial mainstream's jumping on the gold bandwagon has been various nation states announcing their own interest in the yellow metal....

^---(see URL for more!)---^

TownCrierBreaking news... incompetent monetary "analyst" falls on his own sword#1427443/27/06; 02:18:05

March 24, 2006 -- With gold prices rising against all of the world's fiat currencies, some have suggested that gold now trades as if it were an alternative currency, on par with the dollar, euro, and yen. However, this observation reveals a basic lack of understanding of the difference between money and currency. Since the confusion seems to be wide-spread, I thought it would be worthwhile to try and clarify the issue.

In addition to being a unit of account, medium of exchange, store of value, and a method of deferred payment, money must possess intrinsic value...

With the advent of fraction reserve banking, the supply of currency would expand and contract, as notes were continuously issued into and withdrawn from circulation. The supply of real money however generally increased slowly, though its rate varied slightly as a result of discoveries or the volume of coinage. Legal tender refers to a status conferred on money by government. However, in modern times, what circulates as legal tender is not money at all. In fact, it is not even currency, as by definition currency must be redeemable in money. What circulates today is simply fiat currency, or currency backed by nothing...

^---(from url)---^


If this unmitigated disaster is what passes for state-of-the-art monetary comprehension, it becomes quite obvious why so many readers of the typical literature remain woefully confused and confounded regarding making appropriate wealth-management decisions in the use of gold ownership as a significant portion of their portfolios.

As any clear-minded observer of history and banking can tell you, most of these money=gold proponents are wolves in sheeps' clothing, pushing an agenda that ultimately marginalizes the market value of physical gold (property) by propagating instead a cult of belief in such bank-favoring schemes as unallocated accounts of "non-property" gold which, when thus monetized in borrow/lend operations, artificially elasticizes the "gold" supply with a net effect of cheapening its value against the non-monetized (simple property) scenario.


SundeckTC's admonition #142744#1427453/27/06; 02:54:45

Awww TC...I think you are being a little hard...after all the guy (or gal) is struggling to get their head around the issue in a generally sympathetic way...and I have seen a lot worse hereabouts...

...but I like your summary:

"...pushing an agenda that ultimately marginalizes the market value of physical gold (property) by propagating instead a cult of belief in such bank-favoring schemes as unallocated accounts of "non-property" gold which, when thus monetized in borrow/lend operations, artificially elasticizes the "gold" supply with a net effect of cheapening its value against the non-monetized (simple property) scenario."

Wordy...but not bad...


Go Spot! Hi ho, Silver!

TownCrierLargest gold mine in China discovered#1427463/27/06; 03:25:55

March 27, 2006 -- With a recoverable reserve over 200 tons, the Yanshan gold mine in Wen county, northwest China's Gansu province under exploration will become the largest gold mine in China.

...traversed by No. 212 national highway, Yangshan gold mine is conveniently located... and the gold mine is expanding rapidly.

^---(from url)---^

At 200 tonnes, it's certainly not insignificant, but casts a pale shadow compared to Russia's 1,500 tonne estimation for the Sukhoi Log orebody.

With such natural resources ripe for the picking, it's hard to imagine any sort of emerging market or any sort of fund-hungry governmental body not seizing an opportunity to align itself with a 'revolutionary' sort of monetary order (MTM gold reserves) that will finally allow for a fair and full (re)valuation of said resources.


AlexBreaking news... incompetent monetary "analyst" falls on his own sword#1427473/27/06; 03:34:30

"However, in modern times, what circulates as legal tender is not money at all. In fact, it is not even currency, as by definition currency must be redeemable in money. What circulates today is simply fiat currency, or currency backed by nothing..."

If this unmitigated disaster is what passes for state-of-the-art monetary comprehension, it becomes quite obvious why so many readers of the typical literature remain woefully confused and confounded regarding making appropriate wealth-management decisions in the use of gold ownership as a significant portion of their portfolios.

As any clear-minded observer of history and banking can tell you, most of these money=gold proponents are wolves in sheeps' clothing, pushing an agenda that ultimately marginalizes the market value of physical gold (property) by propagating instead a cult of belief in such bank-favoring schemes as unallocated accounts of "non-property" gold which, when thus monetized in borrow/lend operations, artificially elasticizes the "gold" supply with a net effect of cheapening its value against the non-monetized (simple property) scenario.

I am one who "remain woefully confused and confounded."

TC, What did the poor guy say that got your dander up? Is his company known for peddling the " most of these money=gold proponents are wolves in sheeps' clothing, pushing an agenda that ultimately marginalizes the market value of physical gold (property) by propagating instead a cult of belief in such bank-favoring schemes as unallocated accounts of "non-property" gold which, when thus monetized in borrow/lend operations, artificially elasticizes the "gold" supply with a net effect of cheapening its value against the non-monetized (simple property) scenario".

Again, what did the poor B***ard say wrong or is it his ignorant association with some nefarious organization?

Just curious, cause I don't get what he said that is inappropriate.

Kind regards,

TownCrierTaiwan gold futures end firmer on first day#1427483/27/06; 03:46:57

TAIPEI (Reuters) - Taiwan's first gold futures contract closed firmer on the first day of trade on Monday...

Traders have said that foreign interest will only be attracted if volume grows.

Another trader said that while the U.S. dollar denomination was an advantage over gold futures on Japan's TOCOM, political risks from tensions with China could effect investor sentiment.

"It is possible that as it is in Taiwan some people may avoid it because of the potential disruption to the market should conflict with China become an issue again," another trader said.

The gold contract, which is for cash settlement, is Taiwan's first commodity future.

^---(from url)---^

Note the difference between this Taiwan paper and real gold. These contracts, like COMEX gold futures, are simply dollar-denominated wagers on the price-direction of themselves. And it should be clear from the cash settlement aspect along with the concerns about potential performance viability from political risk during times of tension with China that participation in this sort of market is more akin to running a lemonade stand than it is to actual gold ownership.

To be sure, to the extent that it diverts or delays some parties from buying physical to meet their diversification objectives, the launch of new schemes like this help buy time for knowledgeable accumulators insofar as they help in relieving pressures on the physical market caused by the newly arriving multitude of non-discerning would-be goldmarket participants.


TownCrierAlex, the answer was expressly provided in my concluding paragraph.#1427493/27/06; 04:07:32

The type of muddled monetary/currency/wealth presentation cited by the author, whether he realizes his folly or not, serves, as I said, "an agenda that ultimately marginalizes the market value of physical gold (property) by propagating instead a cult of belief in such bank-favoring schemes as unallocated accounts of "non-property" gold which, when thus monetized in borrow/lend operations, artificially elasticizes the "gold" supply with a net effect of cheapening its value against the non-monetized (simple property) scenario."

Ignorance and/or incomprehension exists everywhere, and some does less harm than others. However, insofar as the particular ignorance (or obfuscation) in question does contribute detrimentally to a fair and fully-realized market value of ones property, does it not also raise your dander when you witness it in action? Not knowing the author or his motives, I have no way of knowing if his disastrous commentary is the result of simple ignorance or whether it is deviously sinister by design. Frankly, it doesn't much matter as the end result among the wider world of his confused readership is largely the same. Disaster.


TownCrierHard To Be Bearish On Gold#1427503/27/06; 04:25:07

March 27 2006 - Australasian Investment Review – Gold prices rose 8.6% in 2005 in US dollar terms, averaging US$445 per ounce last year as the metal finally broke free of its correlation to the US/Euro exchange rate.

According to National Australia Bank's commodities team this de-coupling reflects the increased attraction of gold as an investment asset given the increased political uncertainty in Europe in particular, along with expectations the US dollar may weaken in the months ahead.

In the bank's view the price of the metal should continue to move higher over the course of the year, as it expects the positive influences on the price such as investment demand and an increased speculative element in the market will be enough to offset what is currently a period of weaker fabrication demand.

Examining both the demand and supply sides give reason to view National Bank's positive outlook as reasonable, as factors on both sides suggest the market should remain tight going forward.

The bank notes gold demand rose by more than 7% to 3,574 tonnes in 2005, though industrial demand was virtually unchanged from its levels of recent years. Driving the increase was a 4.5% lift in consumption from the jewellery sector, while investment demand increased by a far more substantial 26%.

...Supply side conditions were also favourable, as on GFMS figures mine supply rose only 1.2% last year to 2,494 tonnes, with a similar small increase expected this year. Part of this can be attributed to the fact production costs continue to rise as input prices such as fuel, steel and labour move higher.

Further limiting supply in the bank's view will be an increase in producer de-hedging, as it notes most of the major new gold projects are controlled by large existing producers who have less need to hedge their output. GFMS estimates total de-hedging this year will reach more than 200 tonnes, which will further tighten supply in the spot market.

^---(from url)---^

Given the evolving trend of growing "investment" interest in gold, that is, of outright gold ownership competing with demand (for 3,574 tonnes in 2005), it's counterpart, dishoarding, as a potential source of supply loses significance against the meager availability of mining supply (2,494 in 2005).

Just "do the math", so to speak...


jenikaExplanation of M3#1427523/27/06; 06:43:32

I found this explanation of the M3 account which I thought was interesting.
M1- is restricted to the most liquid forms of money; it consists of currency in the hands of the public; travelers checks; demand deposits, and other deposits against which checks can be written.

M2- includes M1, plus savings accounts, time deposits of under $100,000, and balances in retail money market mutual funds.

M3 includes M2 plus large-denomination ($100,000 or more) time deposits, balances in institutional money funds, repurchase liabilities issued by depository institutions, and Eurodollars held by U.S. residents at foreign branches of U.S. banks and at all banks in the United Kingdom and Canada."

And here is the explanation of why they dont publish M3 any more.
M3 does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in M2 and has not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years. Consequently, the Board judged that the costs of collecting the underlying data and publishing M3 outweigh the benefits" <end snip>
Is it possible that large amounts of US dollars have been exchanged for Euros and are sitting in a bank in either Canada or UK ?

TownCrierPolitical risks and national interests versus mining co. interests#1427533/27/06; 07:06:21

HEADLINE: Kyrgyz miners rally over gold row with British firm

BISHKEK, March 27 (Reuters) - Dozens of Kyrgyz miners rallied outside a government building in the capital Bishkek on Monday urging officials to settle a row with British miner Oxus Gold Plc....

Oxus has been in talks with Kyrgyzstan since 2004 to restore a licence to develop the Central Asian country's second largest gold deposit. The licence for Jerooy was taken away under former President Askar Akayev, ousted last year in a coup.

Akayev was ousted last March when protests against a flawed election turned violent in Bishkek and led to him fleeing the country as a mob ransacked his office. An Oxus official, speaking to Reuters in Bishkek, said the company still hoped the licence would be restored...

Kyrgyz Prime Minister Felix Kulov has said it would not be in the country's interest to restore the licence under an existing agreement with Oxus.

Taking the row to a new level, British Prime Minister Tony Blair intervened by writing to Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev earlier this year asking him to restore the licence.

^---(from url)---^

How ambiguous is the disposition of your gold investment? Is it exposed to the wide scope of socio-political risk?

Only ownership of PHYSICAL gold bears the full benefits historically associated with the yellow metal as well as the time-tested phrase "good as gold".


TownCrierReminder -- MK's latest Client Letter!#1427543/27/06; 07:16:02

Click link for an early look at the April Market Update...


TownCrierDisturbing Trends -- 2006: 'Why Gold Is the Buy of a Generation'#1427553/27/06; 07:19:33

MK has been busy compiling important info for your convenience. See link!


SmeagolPretty Precious...#1427563/27/06; 10:26:06

...those Kim Thanh... we always wondered what they looked like... and they even come with paper wrappers? Thank you for showing uss those, Ssir MK! ~8-)


geRichard Cantillon-Essay on the Nature of Trade in General - 1881#1427573/27/06; 11:22:08

Cantillon was smart enough to profit from John Law's paper money scheme.

"This example shews that the paper and credit of public and private Banks may cause surprising results in everything which does not concern ordinary expenditure for drink and food, clothing, and other family requirements, but that in the regular course of the circulation the help of Banks and credit of this kind is much smaller and less solid than is generally supposed. Silver alone is the true sinews of circulation."
"It is then undoubted that a Bank with the complicity of a Minister is able to raise and support the price of public stock and to lower the rate of interest in the State at the pleasure of this Minister when the steps are taken discreetly, and thus pay off the State debt. But these refinements which open the door to making large fortunes are rarely carried out for the sole advantage of the State, and those who take part in them are generally corrupted. The excess banknotes, made and issued on these occasions, do not upset the circulation, because being used for the buying and selling of stock they do not serve for household expenses and are not changed into silver. But if some panic or unforeseen crisis drove the holders to demand silver from the Bank the bomb would burst and it would be seen that these are dangerous operations."

geThe Saga of John Law and Richard Cantillon by Sean Corrigan #1427583/27/06; 11:28:13

mikalTrend toward Asian "domestic" investment good for gold#1427593/27/06; 13:26:45

Yen rallies on year-end repatriation flows - Steve Johnson
Snippit: "The yen made strong gains on Monday, with continued selling of foreign bonds by Japanese investors said to be behind the move.
Data released on Friday by Japan's Ministry of Finance revealed that Japanese investors sold a net Y1,480bn of foreign assets in the week to March 17, a six-fold increase on the week before.
And there were reports of this trend continuing on Monday, ahead of the fiscal year-end, with Derek Halpenny, senior currency economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, reporting "heavy selling".
"The weekly cross-border flow data for the week to March 17, which revealed the largest one-week foreign bond selling on record, suggested that Japanese investors are actively reducing their foreign bond holdings in the run-up to fiscal year-end," he added.
Japanese investors often repatriate some of their foreign holdings in the run-up to the financial year-end, only to re-invest the money overseas at the start of the new fiscal year.
In recent years this "window-dressing" was often performed by Japanese banks seeking to bolster weaker balance sheets with the proceeds of profitable overseas investments.
While this is less relevant now that the balance sheets of Japanese banks are looking healthier, Mr Halpenny argued that the unexpected strength of the dollar against the yen during the past 12 months (strengthening from Y106.39) means that many Japanese investors are now unintentionally overweight the US, and have positions to cut.
Crucially Mr Halpenny sees outflows from Japan resuming in the new fiscal year as strong domestic and global growth combine to increase the risk appetite of Japanese investors, encouraging them to seek higher yields overseas.
Not everyone agrees with this point, however. Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief FX strategist at UBS, saw scope for Japanese investors to continue selling foreign bonds in the new year.
"The new fiscal year should be seen as a time when pensions and life insurance companies make adjustments to their portfolio allocations in light of changed conditions in the market," he said.
"Since January, yields in Japan have risen tremendously while currency volatilities have been rising. The new risk/reward parameters suggest scope for disposal of foreign bonds in the new year, which would be a surprise to the market and drive a stronger yen."
Chris Towner, consultant at risk manager HIFX, painted a similar picture, arguing that low unemployment, a surging Nikkei equity market and higher Japanese government bond yields mean that Japanese investors "will be tempted to invest more into the domestic economy in the next financial year"..."

mikalNew currency to mimic euro#1427603/27/06; 13:39:34

Bickering delays Asian currency unit launch - Victor Mallet
Excerpt: "Plans to launch an Asian Currency Unit (Acu) to help develop regional bond markets and promote monetary co-operation have been delayed by political and technical arguments over which currencies to include and how the weighting system would work, say people familiar with the project.
"There is agitation over which currencies are to be in the Acu," said one official at the Asian Development Bank, citing disagreements among Asian governments over the incorporation of the currencies of Taiwan – the island claimed by China – and of Hong Kong, Australia and New Zealand.
Haruhiko Kuroda, the ADB's Japanese president, strongly supports increased financial co-operation in Asia and an eventual monetary union. He had hoped to launch the Acu as early as this month but ADB officials now say the process is unlikely to be completed until after the bank's annual meeting in May."

TownCrierFed signals#1427613/27/06; 17:44:35

In open market operations today the trading desk for the Federal Reserve System sent a fairly strong signal that the outcome of tomorrow's FOMC policy decision will be to raise the target on fed fund rates from 4.50 percent to 4.75 percent.

This morning, the Fed's only open market intervention was an overnight repo operation conducted at 4.75 percent and, coincidentally(?), the size of the operation was $4.75 billion.

A policy tightening at Chairman Bernanke's inaugural helming of the FOMC meeting is very nearly obligatory, if for no real economic reason other than to keep traders guessing a bit longer by sending a hawkish message to temper his inflationary reputation as "helicopter Ben".


Mthirsty1weight#1427623/27/06; 18:31:10

A question to the roundtable.I was just looking at the new price of the gold coins on this site.The french angel is selling for 129.51,the French rooster is selling for 124.34.Both of these coins contain the same amount of gold.If i was to cut these coins into 4 equal pieces,they would still be equal in the amount of gold that they contain.Should i ever have to use my gold to buy items to keep my family in clothing and food,would the person i payed the gold to care if it was an angel or a rooster,as long as it contained the same amount of gold.I am a coin collector and understand the differance between bullion value and numismatic value of a coin.But if the *&^%)&#@ does hit the fan,who would care if the coin was enclosed in plastic holder? In times of an emergancey it would be for gold content and not a grade.Therefore why not purchase the rooster over the angel.
osa104cTHE HEART of the matter#1427633/27/06; 18:37:34

Just returned from seven days in FLY OVER COUNTRY……!…so many regular folks waking up…..Motel owners in Eureka Springs Arkansas turning dollars into gold (recent immigrants of course) …..I am grateful for this forum and it's contributors ……spreading the $$$ TRUTH $$$ one soul at a time………..GOLDEN ROADS and SILVER PRESERVES to all whom are/become enlightened…………
USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1427643/27/06; 18:40:22">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

MONDAY Market Excerpts

March 27 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed at a three-week high Monday, silver struck a new 22-year peak and copper traded at its highest ever level, as the dollar weakened ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting.

Adding to the uptrend, Citigroup raised its forecasts for gold, copper, nickel and aluminum and said metals are entering the "sweet spot of the Commodity Supercycle."

The COMEX April gold contract closed up $6.90 at $567.40, its highest level since March 3.

The dollar was last down 0.7% against the yen with investors cautious ahead of a two-day Fed monetary policy committee meeting.

The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter point, its 15th straight hike, bringing rates to 4.75%.

But investors are expected to focus most closely on the statement accompanying the decision, the first to be made under the stewardship of new chairman Ben Bernanke.

If the statement fails to signal further hikes, the dollar will fall, providing support for gold.

For gold, "the early March peak of $570.50 is the next obvious target," said research firm Action Economics.

Gold was further boosted by comments from an official at the Bank of China's Australian operations, who argued that the Chinese central bank should hold more gold in its forex reserves as a way of diversifying away from dollars, according to Action Economics.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

TownCrierMthirsty1, the nature of spending and small purchases#1427653/27/06; 19:12:44

If a doomsday scenario unfolded of such extreme magnitude that people were compelled to cut/quarter their gold coins to make barter payments for goods, then quite frankly in that case we've got much more ponderous implications to mentally prepare for than a consideration of having or sacrificing a buck or two in potential numismatic value one way or the other.

Happily, global experience reveals that national currency crises don't typically reach such dire epic proportions that barter is the only viable option. Typically, if severe currency-depreciation and economic stagnation dictates that copious amounts of supplemental cash for life-sustaining purchases must be raised by distress-selling of ones surplus hard assets, avenues rapidly appear in which (whole, uncut) gold coins may be sold at appropriate market prices domestically or to unstressed non-domestic buyers who will readily absorb the convenient and highly-prized gold coinage long before bidding on other less portable and illiquid household or financial assets.

Obviously this isn't a comprehensive treatment, but was meant as preliminary food for thought.


The Invisible HandIt's not M3 and IOB, it's repos, stupid!#1427663/27/06; 20:00:28

Has our collective memory already forgotten this?

September 29, 2005
PART II: The repo time bomb
By Henry C K Liu

The repo market is the biggest financial market today. Domestic and international repo markets have grown dramatically over the past few years because of increasing need by market participants to take and hedge short positions in the capital and derivatives markets; a growing concern over counterparty credit risk; and the favorable capital-adequacy treatment given to repos by the market. Most important of all is a growing awareness among market participants of the flexibility of repos and the wide range of markets and circumstances in which they can benefit from using repos. The use of repos in financing and leveraging market positions and short-selling, as well as in enhancing returns and mitigating risk, is indispensable for full participation in today's financial markets.
Changes in the financial system, particularly since the deregulation of US banking and financial markets in the 1980s, have contributed to controversy among economists about the precise definition of the money supply. M1, M2 and M3 now measure money and near-money while L measures long-term liquid funds. There is no agreement on the amount of L. The controversy is further complicated by the financing of long-term instruments with short-term repos which while being is a money creation venue are mercuric in outstanding volume.
The equity markets since the September 11 terrorist attacks are no longer free markets. They are now a scam operated in the name of patriotism to transfer through managed volatility by the Plunge Prevention Team, of which the Fed is a charter member, the losses that have already occurred but are yet hidden to unsuspecting small investors who were too patriotic to sell immediately. The new financial normalcy is a totally new system. The United States has entered a new phase of state capitalism, with the government deciding who survives and who fails. The US system is being attacked by both terrorism and the "war on terrorism".
The individual management of risk, however sophisticated, does not eliminate risk in the system. It merely passes on the risk to other parties for a fee. In any risk play, the winners must match the losers by definition. The fact that a systemic payment-default catastrophe has not yet surfaced only means that the probability of its occurrence will increase with every passing day. It is an iron law of an accident waiting to happen understood by every risk manager. By socializing their risks and privatizing their speculative profits, risk speculators hold hostage the general public, whose welfare the Fed now uses as a pretext to justify printing money to perpetuate these speculators' reckless joyride.

GoldendomeInvisible Hand -- Nice (long) article on repos, derivatives, etc.#1427673/27/06; 21:00:29

Had wondered what, why, and how they were used. That helps to explain it and the risks.

The dollar is a derivative................of debt!

The dollar used to be a derivative.........of Gold!

KevAngry shareholders disrupt BNB's AGM#1427683/28/06; 03:05:29

BNB sold 30tons last summer. some Q&A's from the AGM of yesterday:
Q: did this transaction go through the BIS?
A: no comment (yet, one director was about to answer "yes" just when another interrupted and said it was confidential)
Q: was this transaction an autonomous decision of the BNB (without interference of Belgian government, ECB, BIS, IMF etc)?
A: yes.
Q: does the BNB plan to sell off more gold?
A: no decision taken yet, but it is possible.
Q: how much of the BNB's gold is subject to leasing/lending/swapping?
A: up to a maximum of 70%
Q: why do European central banks (Euro countries) value there gold at market price, while all other international central banks don't?
A: this is a decision on the European level (ECB), which we have to follow.
Q: why is the gold of the BNB stored in the UK and the US?
A: this has historic reasons + these are the main gold centres.

DJ Angry Shareholders Disrupt Belgium National Bank´s AGM

BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)--Disgruntled shareholders disrupted proceedings at the annual shareholders meeting of the National Bank of Belgium (BNB.BT), angry over what they perceive as unfair treatment by the bank.

Hecklers repeatedly interrupted Vice Governor Luc Coene as he presented the bank´s annual results for 2005, with slow hand clapping and shouts for their rights to be upheld.

Many were angry they were forbidden from asking any questions until a later session after lunch.

"We were asking for more slides about the financial activity, for more transparency," said Charles Demoulin, a senior manager for Deminor, a body that groups around 2%minority shareholder interests.

Unlike other central banks, Belgium´s is a listed company traded on Euronext. Half of its shares are in free float while the state owns the other half.

This has caused conflicts of interest between the bank´s public service obligations and private shareholders´ commercial interests.

Demoulin said the bank routinely disregards its shareholders´ interests.

"The main philosophy of the bank seems to give more to the state and less to the shareholders," he said.

The bank´s income goes in three directions, said Demoulin. One part goes to the Belgian government, another part to its reserves, and a third, "tiny" amount to private shareholders.

He said the dividend payout to shareholders is increased annually only by the rate of inflation, while the bank´s income often rises considerably higher than the inflation rate.

In addition it doesn´t respect transparency rules that govern other Belgian companies through Belgium´s corporate code of conduct. This is despite the central bank of the Netherlands respecting that country´s corporate governance code, even though it isn´t a listed company.

For its part the bank maintains it is first and foremost a central bank and its main objective isn´t maximizing shareholder wealth.

"Being a central bank, the bulk of its income is generated by virtue of its legal right to issue bank notes," it said in a statement. "This justifies the legal provisions that transfer the amount of income that exceeds the bank´s proper needs to the Belgian state."

It said the rules of company law only apply as far as they are not inconsistent with the central bank´s statutes.

The bank´s shareholders have previously lost a series of court cases against the bank where they claimed the bank had unfairly transferred assets to the state instead of distributing it to minority shareholders.

Company Web site:

-By Carolyn Henson, Dow Jones Newswires; +32 2 741 1484; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Kevlink 1 BNB case#1427693/28/06; 03:17:36

Deminor, representing a group of BNB shareholders (also active in the BIS case)
Kevlink 2 BNB case#1427703/28/06; 03:20:03

website of some private shareholders
GoldiloxBNB#1427713/28/06; 11:40:57

@ Kev,

"It said the rules of company law only apply as far as they are not inconsistent with the central bank´s statutes."

Can you imagine an ENRON defense of: "Sorry, the ccounting laws are in conflict with our corporate statutes." But I guess that it's similar here, because thet banks who were complicit in ENRON fraud are not facing any litigaton.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Proven Reliability, Longevity, Quality and Professionalism ---- Invest with Confidence!!#1427723/28/06; 12:48:53

TownCrierImelda's gold#1427733/28/06; 13:32:30

(excerpt) -- Ever wondered where the fabulous Marcos wealth is now?

Abroad, much of it in gold deposits in England.

Records showed to me by the former First Lady, Imelda Romualdez Marcos seem to indicate that the late President Ferdinand Marcos had 88,000 metric tons of gold deposited in the Bank of England.

At the current price of gold of $568 an ounce, the gold hoard is valued at a mind-boggling $1,75 billion or $1.7 trillion—enough to pay for the Philippines’ $55-billion foreign debt 30 times over.

The $1.7 trillion if divided by 85 million will give each Filipino at least $20,000, making the Philippines a First World country and its citizens suddenly wealth, with per capita income equivalent to the income of the nationals of Greece, Israel, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.

The Marcos assets are twice the value of the foreign reserves of China which is the biggest in the world. Is the 77-year-old Imelda weaving a fairy tale or she telling the truth?

It's amazing that Imelda could just be telling the truth and yet, nobody could be believing her. In addition to the gold deposits, Imelda claims ownership of most of the largest Philippine companies, from San Miguel Corp., to PLDT, to Benguet Corp., to the conglomerate of taipan Lucio Tan.

Where did the Marcoses get all that money to invest in and eventually buy control of these companies?

Apparently from judicious and savvy investments and speculation in gold during the 1950s and 1960s, when Marcos was just a congressman and later, senator.

Marcos was better than George Soros or those two brothers who speculated on silver and lost. Why hasn't all that hoard been used by the Marcoses to develop the Philippines and rescue majority of Filipinos from abject poverty?

Because the records, explains Imelda, were taken away from them or hidden in banks in accounts the passwords or code words for which are not known or have been lost or kept by the strongman Marcos to himself until his dying days. Also, Marcos wanted very much to return the Philippines and announce the good news himself - that he would pay all the Philippines’foreign debts and use the balance of his wealth to develop the country.

In his will, Marcos named Imelda and his son, Ferdinand Jr. as executors of the family wealth.

The wealth include gold deposits in England, dollar deposits in Switzerland, ownership of major companies in the Philippines, including nearly all the mines in the country....

^----(from url)---^

With only approximately 150,000 tonnes representing the best estimates of all gold that has ever been mined in the history of the world, Imelda's boast that the Marcos estate owns 88,000 tonnes of it is (to put it gently) fatuous.

Issues of quantity aside, an 'A' for originality.


TownCrierAs predicted, FOMC raises target fed funds rate to 4.75%#1427743/28/06; 13:38:08

PRESS RELEASE; March 28, 2006 -- The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4-3/4 percent.

The slowing of the growth of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2005 seems largely to have reflected temporary or special factors. Economic growth has rebounded strongly in the current quarter but appears likely to moderate to a more sustainable pace. As yet, the run-up in the prices of energy and other commodities appears to have had only a modest effect on core inflation, ongoing productivity gains have helped to hold the growth of unit labor costs in check, and inflation expectations remain contained. Still, possible increases in resource utilization, in combination with the elevated prices of energy and other commodities, have the potential to add to inflation pressures.

The Committee judges that some further policy firming may be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance. In any event, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to foster these objectives.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Susan S. Bies; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Mark W. Olson; Sandra Pianalto; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 5-3/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco.

^---(from url)---^


GoldiloxImelda's stash#1427753/28/06; 13:49:28

This story sounds like an appeal to get some portion of frozen funds back into her control. AS usual, with "frozen" funds, only a tiny fraction ever escape the banksters' greedy mitts.

If she really wanted to help her poor countrymen, the tales of her shoe closet suggest she could singlehandedly re-shoe the population of her country.

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1427763/28/06; 14:06:15">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

TUESDAY Market Excerpts

March 28 (from Reuters) -- U.S. gold futures settled a shade lower on Tuesday, and just below Monday's three-week peak, as firmer oil prices and cautious trading ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates held prices in a quiet band, sources said.

"There was a little bit of support underlying the market on the back of the weaker U.S. dollar and the stronger oil price, but I guess the FOMC was always going to cap that. By and large, the market was not going to get on with it until we know what was going to happen with the Fed," said Bernard Hunter, director of precious metals marketing at ScotiaMocatta.

The Fed's Open Market Committee, meeting for the first time under new Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, lifted U.S. interest rates on Tuesday by 1/4 point to 4.75 percent and said further moves may be needed to keep inflation at bay.

COMEX April gold futures ended the day down 40 cents at $567, after dealing from $563.40 to $569.70.

Supporting the recent rally has been crude oil's rally to seven-week highs Tuesday afternoon amid worries about production cutbacks in Nigeria.

NYMEX crude for May delivery rose to $66.15 per barrel for a gain of $1.99, or 3.1 percent, which marked the highest since front-month crude hit $66.62 on Feb. 6.

Emanuel Balarie, senior market strategist with Wisdom Financial, said gold has the potential to break out toward $600 (an ounce) as long as oil prices stay at these higher levels.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

Gandalf the WhiteDear "Doubting Thomas" Townie !#1427773/28/06; 15:51:43

How much gold was liberated by the Japanese in SE Asia during WWII, and "temporarily" stockpiled in The Phillippines ? Guess who, after the conflict, "recovered" much of that stash and "confiscated" the GOLDEN treasures that other individuals uncovered ? If one should search for such "stories", you could read for months about these adventures. I to do doubt the accepted "number" of total existing tonnages, as my Saudi friends laugh when they see those numbers 1, 5 and 0 !!!

SundeckDear Imelda (a well-shoed maiden) and Yamashita's Gold#1427783/28/06; 17:04:49

Ahhh....yes! Imelda knew how to dress...from the bottom up... And maybe, just maybe, the Marcoses discovered just a bit of the famed Yamashita Gold...but it is more likely that their wealth was siphoned off from the Philippines state and its foreign aid provider's...

The hunt goes on for Yamashita's gold...not entirely without incident, it seems (see links below):

...searching for lost treasure is probably more risky than buying it locally...



NedHello everyone......I have a favor to ask.#1427793/28/06; 17:53:54

I am sure most of us have some gold or PM's or likewise instrument(s) to protect us against a downturn in the economy or the dollar. Perhaps as a 'hedge' to financial upheaval in these bewildered markets.

I have been a nervous nellie in the past year over my home. I've got myself into a bit of a pickle, owning too much house to be exact. The wife is only a little nervous, she is sticking to her guns with the "real estate has always increased over time". We have had a couple moderately heated debates whether to sell the house or not. She has won, I have given up. During the last debate she sternly asked, hands on hips, if I wanted to sell the gold as well.

Thankfully, I know when to quit. So I said all right, "I need to find the perfect hedge" to owning this monstrous house, complete w/ monstrous mortgage.

May I ask why the housing market would fall off (as opposed to leveling as the cheerleaders claim), what would be the signs and what would one have to do or own to counter ('hedge') this situation? More gold?

I am sure there are more than a handful of us wondering what to do with the BIG house. I was thinking that rising interest rates is the 'house-killer' so a 'bet' (call options?) on higher rates might be the answer. I am guessing, please assist.

Thanks in advance.

GoldendomeRocky mountain Colorado.#1427803/28/06; 18:08:46

Oh hey, guess what? I heard on my favorite radio network today, the one that Sir White Hills might whimsically refer to as: (N)eocommunist (P)roletariate (R)adio, that half of the folks there in the mile high state of Colorado used interest only loans to purchase their homes in 2005. We knew the bubble air there in Colorado was thinner, but not that thin! Now it sounds like the bubble popped, the air is helium and floating away.

On the brighter side: Bernancke today in the write-up accompanying the interest rate hike, said something to the effect that more interest rate hikes may be in the future because.... He is concerned about commodity prices. Well, do we now chance crashing the U.S. economy because demand is soaring for industrial metals in China, India, and other developing countries? Perhaps so. Arguments are made, that even with a slowdown in the United States, commodity prices will remain high, because those developing countries are driving the prices at the margin. ---Two billion Chinese and Indians acquiring real homes with running water and electricity will demand a lot of concrete, copper, iron, zinc, nickel, and others. And what of transportation? Those cars and motorcycles they are increasingly acquiring demand the same metals + petroleum. Does someone expect to keep them in shacks now that they have tasted the honey of dollar inflation?

Toolie@ Ned#1427813/28/06; 18:19:52

New wife?
Flatliner@Ned#1427823/28/06; 18:37:19

Here is another way at looking at your situation. If the bank comes calling for your house, you can put all the gold that you were able to hoard into a backpack and start a new life on a little more solid foundation – in a different house.
Toolie@ Goldendome#1427833/28/06; 18:46:12

I think you're right on. The increased demand on minerals and basic commodities is going to be with us for some time. The Fed is attempting to hand off the growth baton to Asia, I'm looking for a sloppy hand-off though. We could see a good opportunity top-off the golden pile should the fed's tightening get ahead of Aisa's prodding of the consumer. It would really surprise me to see anything near the consumer irresponsibility from the Asians, like we've seen here in the states in recent years. My 102 years old (depression era) granny is a tight wad. Mom and Pops were took the opportunity to enjoy life a little, after the work was done. Much of my generation and those following are living a debt-financed fantasy. So it took about 50 years (end of WWII to present) for Americans to loose their fear of falling. What Asia first invests in will be basics and insurance (GOLD), at least that is my suspicions.
Druid@Ned#1427843/28/06; 18:47:01

Druid: Email me at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. and put "Score" on the subject line. And keep the gal(brutal Toolie:)). My wife would rather sell the house then shiny.
GoldendomeNed: Maybe Puts on homebuilders#1427853/28/06; 18:47:15

Jeez-Louize, Ned. Keep the wife. She can add ballast and stability while you go nuts! A woman's home is her castle and she sounds like she's not willing to sacrifice it.

Now, what do YOU do? Analyze your home market area. Is it likely to crumble or remain reasonably stable? Has it been a go-go area or simply experienced steady if slow upward appreciation? Have you and those in your area taken advantage of low 30 year rate mortgages, or are there a lot of "creative" loans taken out because the buyers could not really afford the prices to begin with and now those buyers may face rate re-adjustments, possibly making for unstable prices in the face of a downturn? These are things you've got to look at. How stable do you think your job and income are?

What to do: If you're afraid housing prices will collapse: how about buying "Puts" on a home builders index, or on individual home building companies. (Example: Toll Brothers) if not too late already. I don't dabble in this at all myself, so I am not familiar with the charts, but it may be one place to look. Good luck.

The HoopleNed#1427863/28/06; 18:48:30

Funny you mention hedging housing risk, I am off tomorrow for a meeting on the launch of the new CME housing index futures. The derivatives casino grows larger by the day. This is an index of home prices in 5 or 6 metropolitan areas that allows builders to allegedly offset risk in new home values. You can pick an individual market or take the basket of all cities. Why anybody would be long housing right now is beyond me, but there again how could anybody be short gold either. Oh well, I'm not advocating anything and nothing beats getting out of debt for a good night's sleep. Derivatives, as many will learn with gold, may not be the best proxy for when TSHTF. I remember a few wives of friends saying tech stocks always go up back in 2000 ...... best of luck.
compwiz4uNed#1427873/28/06; 18:57:52

In the hyperinflation that is coming, home prices should continue to increase, albeit with some pullbacks along the way. I do not think anybody can predict where prices will eventually end up. We are in uncharted territory.

It sounds like your wife loves your house, so forget about selling it and keep her happy.

Borrow as much money as you can, at the lowest fixed interest rate, for the longest time period and buy more precious metals along with high-dividend commodity stocks like PCU, as well as oil/gas royalty trusts.

Even if you have to dig into the principal, at times, to make that monthly payment, you will be much better off down the road.

Everyone's debts will be inflated away (as long as they have fixed rates). The politicians have no other choice.

Sundeck@Ned and Toolie re "the house or the wife"...#1427883/28/06; 19:00:27

Hey Ned, you could track down Imelda and make her an there's a woman who appreciates both a large house AND lots of shiny of both worlds.


Seriously...the trend in Australia (especially amongst the younger set) is to acquire enormous houses...God knows why with energy bills going up and family sizes coming down and two people working (who does the cleaning??) feeling is to stay diversified (gold plus house plus a few other asset-groupings). But you have to ask yourself (and your dearest): "Do we really need a mansion?"

In a financial crunch, I suspect the voter pressure will be such as to cause the FED to "inflate without discretion" to prevent too great a fall in the housing prices and too many foreclosures with the (potentially runaway) knock-on effects to the rst of the economy...




GoldendomeProposed immigration reform#1427893/28/06; 19:17:51

Is anyone else shocked by the level of protest and street demonstrations accompanying the proposed new immigration bill? I am...Shocked!!!
GoldiloxImmigration bill protests#1427903/28/06; 19:37:18


It seems people are beginning to demand an ear from legislators who have appeared to be so beholden purely to lobby interests for too long.

While about 600k marched in various cities in the US, and many SoCal schools were boycotted, labor concerns brought out over 1 million in Paris.

I predict a summer of discord for 2006.

Druid@Goldi#1427913/28/06; 19:53:00

Druid: Thanks for the links you provided the other day reference the immigration issue. For such a "booming" economy, there certainly is a lot of discord. How about directing inflation as a means to an end instead of harnessing it?
ToolieImmigration reform#1427923/28/06; 19:59:52

Rather than shocked, I'd say Impressed. There is an infrastructure of advocacy for illegal immigration within the existing two parties, media and business community. Their organizations have apparently turned out some impressive numbers, if the half a million is true. The numbers of people attending rallies tend to be inflated or deflated depending on the media's ‘opinion’ of the cause. My spidey sense says this was anything but spontaneous.
GoldendomeToolie#1427933/28/06; 20:14:44

GoldiloxRallies#1427943/28/06; 20:23:27

@ Toolie, Goldendome,

News video from the LA march shows it to be tens of blocks long and four lanes plus sidewalk wide. Huge, to say the least, but still smaller than the million bodies in Paris.

It's not clear that all the marchers had the same agenda, other than to tell Congress to do some more homework before ramrodding a bill through.

"Spontaneous" in today's environment includes cell phone and internet communication, two things not available to previous generations.

In previous eras, only the police had mobile comm devices.

TownCrierGandalf, tonnage#1427953/28/06; 20:23:55

I wonder if your Saudi friends have possibly had their eyes and judgements dazzled by "tonnages", to use the word lightly, in the form of UNallocated "gold".

Briefly giving them the benefit of the doubt, however, one must come to the conclusion that the size of the gold market's outstanding short position, which so many other people have made their careers squawking about, is consequentally far less troubling than they would otherwise have you believe it to be.

Fortunately for the sake of my digestion, I'm an equal opportunity humorist -- I'll gladly laugh at either side who puts overmuch emphasis on the sizes of the above-ground supply OR on the short position.


Goldilox$A800 an ounce for gold#1427963/28/06; 20:43:57,5478,18638499%255E664,00.html


Local miners sharpen their gold picks
GOLD pushed through $A800 an ounce for the first time yesterday in a huge fillip for Australian producers.

The yellow metal rocketed to $A805.32 in overnight trade on the spot market, boosted by the weaker Australian dollar.
At 7pm it settled at $794.42 ($US564.70), signifying a steady climb from the record $A766 it briefly touched last month.

The price of gold, in Australian dollars, had not been that high since January 1980 when the precious commodity soared to $US850 an ounce.

At that time the Australian dollar was worth $US1.1097.

The US-dollar price is still well short of that mark, and has fallen since February, but the Australian dollar has dropped more than 5 per cent since then to below US70.5 in recent days. Yesterday, it bounced a little and was trading around US71.03.

The surge in the gold price is good news for Australian producers.

The Australian Gold Council/Macquarie Gold Index, which measures the fortunes of local producers, has surged 6 per cent this month to 4402 points. It is almost 60 per cent higher now than a year ago.

While gold is traded in US dollars, the Australian-dollar price is more important to local producers.

The bigger the margin between the Australian dollar price they receive for their gold and their Australian-dollar costs, the bigger their profits.


More give-and-take from the "stong dollar" policy.

GoldendomeOil pop.#1427973/28/06; 23:05:37

Holy Smokes: No wonder Gasoline is going up so fast and much again. Crude is up over $66/barrel! Heard today that as much as 1/3 of Nigerian production is shut in, due to rebel disruptions in their producing areas.
Topazalt Gold.#1427983/28/06; 23:11:05

If we remove the currency (green) line we can see Gold ambling almost comatose this year with only fluctuations in currencies giving it any sign of life ...ref G'lox A$ PoG article.
With the delivery Baton passing to Gold on Monday, I'd be hopeful of some positive Au/Ag action this and early next week ...all the skittles here point decidedly UP imo.

mikalHyperinflationary dictatorship#1427993/29/06; 00:46:02 Bush Is No Conservative by Paul Craig Roberts - 3/27/06
Solid case for gold flying on the basis that limitless spending is officially enforced, a clampdown on internal dissent, free speech and other violations of the Bill of Rights, concentration of power from all branches of government into the executive with intent to cancel elections usurp authority from the Constitution and international treaties and harness military in execution of this power.

mikalEasy money getting harder to come by#1428003/29/06; 02:38:17

Nikkei surges to near six-year high; Asia advances - Marketwatch - Chris Oliver - March 28, 2006
Asian equities looking strong yet vulnerable as Chinese stocks face "a wall of worry" and the Nikkei 225 index reaches it's highest since August 2000 led by tech and export-related shares. Bombay bourse near record highs.
No surprise to see continued price volatility in both directions even with upgraded official market supports. The region still looks to the West for direction and momentum, depending on continued growth in trade surpluses and global liquidity.

GoldiloxDear Jim,#1428013/29/06; 04:52:21


Regarding the FOMC today – their statement is an attempt at pure bravado. One more report showing new home sales dropping like a lead brick and the supply of new homes for sale reaching another 10 year high, and even the Fed will not be able to believe their own BS any longer.

The notion that the economy is near full capacity is comical especially coming on the heels of the pink slips making the rounds at GM. Apparently all those unemployed auto workers do not realize they are at full capacity and are doing just fine. How many of those folks are going to rush right out and buy a brand new plasma TV? No doubt all the folks over at Delphi will be standing in line looking to buy the same TV themselves. Maybe they can say hi to their buddies at Ford as I am sure they will be there as well. I wonder how many restaurants and other small businesses in the cities and towns where the ripple effect of these layoffs will be felt are in as "feel-good" a mood as the ivory tower inhabitants of the Fed Wonderland.

If there were not such enormous sums of money at stake, this cat and mouse game would be laughable. Methinks this is directed more at foreign investors than at the immediate general American public. The translation of the FOMC minutes should read, "Please, please, pretty please do not stop buying our paper. We promise to give you even more reason to load up on it! Never mind the cost of servicing our interest payments on the public debt is spiraling out of control as fast as the deficit itself is".

Since Bernanke got himself a reputation for playing fast and loose with the electronic printing press, he needs to say anything to establish his bona fides as a premier inflation fighter. The choice of words in the release is quite revealing especially considering gold was knocking on the door of overhead resistance at $570. We cannot have gold soaring past that on the day the FOMC debuts its first press release with Bernanke at its head now can we?


Dan Norcini's analysis of Bernanke's new role.

GoldiloxDear Dan#1428023/29/06; 04:54:30



There is the horrifying possibility out there that Bernanke actually believes those spun economic numbers. That would be a weakness of a professor who reads his own books or today's Fed meeting tome, and believes it.

We do have a professorial school teacher who has never been a business person at the helm.

I would be willing to bet if he shaved and tried to buy a beer he would be carded.



GoldiloxRhodium#1428033/29/06; 06:11:06

I thought the recent highs of Rhodium in the $4000+ area were pretty impressive. What I didn't realise was that when gold was working to best $400 a couple years ago, so was Rhodium.

Ten X in two years - ain't it interesting what a "commodity" can do when the banks aren't tripping over themselves to short it.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.FREE Gold Information Packet...#1428043/29/06; 08:41:57

mikalHeadlines Bulletin: Early edition!#1428053/29/06; 08:45:51

Treasurys lower ahead of auction - Bloomberg
Banks have put huge bets on housing - DiMartino, Dallas MN
Danger years for homeowners - CNN/Money
Emerging markets debt hit by interest rate woes - FT
Emerging-Market Stocks' Two-Year Rally May Falter as Rates Rise - Bloomberg
Housing market slowdown forecasted - Contra Costa Times
Derivatives Woes for AIG Unit -
Feds say Halliburton failed to control costs in Iraq - Houston Chronicle
At G.M.'s Helm or Going Under? - NY Times
U.S. trucking industry reports reduced shipments for first time in five months - San Diego UT
BOJ may end zero rates sooner than expected - Reuters
Trade Truce With China in the Senate - NY Times
Lending and retail data cast doubt on UK growth - FT
Thais put business on hold as protests take their toll - FT
UK records worst ever current account deficit in 2005 - AFX

Toolie'Plaza Accord II'#1428063/29/06; 09:07:49

Snip: TOKYO - Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi should take the lead at a Group of Eight meeting in calling for a "Plaza Accord II," former U.S. trade negotiator Clyde Prestowitz said Tuesday.

"We all need to cooperate on diminishing the role of the dollar in international trade," said Prestowitz, now the president of the Economic Strategy Institute which he founded, at a lecture at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan. (end snip)

I've included the link, but don't bother going to it. It has and ad page that you should watch first, then it takes forever to load. Ughh! Big doins though. I hope a more complete report is available later.

R PowellNed#1428073/29/06; 10:59:23

Concerning your mortgage fears, some thoughts that may be useful from what I've seen happen in the past.

Housing prices are always area specific. Don't worry too much about national housing numbers. If you live in an area with limited buildable lots, your house value is more secure, even in a general slowdown.

Also, if your own income (job) is secure and you can now pay the mortgage, you'll probably be okay even if house values fall and your appraised house price falls in relation to the outstanding balance. Your lender may then ask you to pay for mortgage insurance if you're not already paying for it. If the bottom falls out the lenders will be busy with delinquent accounts and not as worried about appraised value to outstnding principal on those accounts that are still current (not delinquent). In my state, foreclosures can only keep what's owed on the mortgage and if there is any extra $$ after the debt is satisfied, then that $$ goes to the former owner. In other words, banks (lenders) can NOT profit from a foreclosure. Thus there is no incentive to foreclose. They would rather you keep your home and continue to pay interest on the principal.

Now then, to tie this into gold I'll suggest that you might ask the bank if they would lend on your physical (if you've enough to make this feasible), if things get desparate. Also the pain of tightening your belt may be offset by the peace of mind gained by some savings..?

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1428083/29/06; 13:20:24">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

WEDNESDAY Market Excerpts

Gold rallies near 25-yr highs

March 29 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rallied Wednesday to close near a quarter-century high. "Once again gold has defied all the naysayer's and lukewarm bulls who continue to predict major tops or severe corrections only to see gold charge back up," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

COMEX June gold futures rose $6.40 to close at $578.60 after a $579.50 high. The contract hasn't traded at levels this high since Feb. 6, when it touched $583.

"We stand by the assertion that a quarter percent better fed funds rate will NOT make the critical difference to medium-term and/or long-term gold investors," said Kitco's investment products analyst Jon Nadler.

The FOMC on Tuesday increased its target for overnight interest rates by a quarter-percentage point to 4.75%, its 15th straight meeting with a quarter-point rate hike. The Fed also left the door open for further increases aimed at combating inflationary pressure.

The implication of future rate increases is "a only a little bit more troubling -- but, at the end of the day, the feeling is that the rate hikes will either damage the heavily indebted U.S. consumer and/or become inflationary in and of themselves," said Nadler.

Against this backdrop, the dollar was modestly weaker against most of its major rivals.

"The hikes are not as much an attempt to stave off inflation as they are designed to attract investment into the dollar by would-be debt holders (China, Japan, etc.) of the U.S. currency," said Nadler.

But "to that, we say: good luck," he said, adding that "there still is no real competition from paper as far as gold is concerned."

The precious metal's "fundamentals after all, look a LOT better than those of the U.S. dollar," he said. And "after tax and after inflation are taken into account, real rates are very close to tiny increments above zero."

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

White RoseHey, anyone notice silver at $11?#1428093/29/06; 14:42:45

Amazing that no oe bothered to mention that silver finally crossed the $11 line. I hope it is $15 before $10.
FlatlinerAnyone notice#1428103/29/06; 15:21:38

That Moon metal eclipsed Sun metal today?
CaradocPMs do well when society is collapsing#1428113/29/06; 15:24:11

Read the link and add Sweden to the list of countries suffering from immigrants who don't meld into the general population. Can't happen here, right? Or is it already happening and just not polite to talk about?

Switching subjects a bit, I suspect that Asia and Europe take out $575 for gold this evening before dawn breaks on the east coast of the US, silver continues its move up, and -- now that it has taken a break for two days -- palladium will join in for the fun tomorrow. Should be a memorable Thursday.


SundeckCyclone Glenda affects oil and gas operations off NW Australia#1428123/29/06; 15:35:16

After Cat. 5 Cyclone Larry "blew the hat off" Innisfail and surrounding areas in NE Queensland a few weeks ago, we now have Cat. 4 Cyclone Glenda threatening the gas/oil/iron-ore Pilbara Region in NW Australia.

Unlike New Orleans, the NW of Australia is very lightly populated, but it accounts for a sizeable part of the national economy. While mining facilities (and towns) have been designed and constructed with cyclones in mind, it remains to be seen how well things "stand up" as a Cat. 4-5 cyclone rolls ashore...


spikedogQuestion on Fundamentals of Inflation#1428133/29/06; 15:54:57

Question to the Forum: Even though the Fed is doing its regular rate increases in an effort to appear to be "holding inflation at bay"; isn't inflation impacted more by the liquidity of the money supply? Is that why Randy keeps updating us with the "Repo Report"?
Mthirsty1T.C.#1428143/29/06; 16:32:58

Thank you for the info yesterday.It cleared up some dark spots.And what a beautiful day for the color yellow.
Flatliner@ Fundamentals of Inflation#1428153/29/06; 18:56:50

Spikedog, My observations lead me to believe that price inflation in CPI commodities occurs when a currency bids up those specific commodities. If a currency didn't bid for these items, the price would come down or the supply would dry up. Also, if you increase the amount of currency in existence and increase the supply of commodities for the currency to chase, things could stay in balance - where the price doesn't go up, but the amount of currency is just enough to offset the new supply. To keep things in order, the ones that monitor the currency supply need to monitor that balance. If they don't create enough currency, prices drop, companies go out of business and fewer widgets are create for currency to chase = recession (depression). If they create too much currency with respect to the amount of widgets created, the price of widgets is bid up (price inflation? robust economy) and the currency is debased to quickly.

It would be interesting to see someone figure out where that balance really is. Consider the case where the widgets that people are chasing are homes. Unlike a trip to the grocery store, debt is involved in the typical US purchase of a home. Maybe, 90% of the home value is determined by the cost of the debt. If the debt is cheap, say, 1,000 dollars a month buys you 300k worth of debt, you might be able to afford a home for 330k with no problems. If the debt is expensive, that same 1k might only get you 50k. Now, you can only afford a home in some really cheep neighborhood at about 55k. So, should those that balance the money supply create less money to fight the housing bubble or simply raise interest rates? If they reduce the amount of currency that they create, they are going to cause a recession everywhere. But, if they raise interest rates for home loans, they have targeted that specific problem.

At the same time, the Fed can claim, in general, to be ‘fighting inflation’ as they raise interest rates yet continue to create currency. The idea here is that they expect people that value saving currency will find this new rate attractive. So even though the Fed is creating money like gangbusters, a little bit of the excess that would normally chase commodities is diverted to chasing financial widgets. They are not real widgets, but contractual widgets built on the promise to pay. So, not only in the big picture do we have real physical widgets for currency to chase, but we have fake contractual widgets. All of a sudden, those that balance everything have a way to soak up a little excess with widgets that they can now create. (By the way, the number of contractual widgets has grown by leaps and bounds so as to divert trillions!)

It's interesting, those that balance things have tools on both sides. They can create widgets and they can create currency to chase the widgets.

The interesting part with all this is watching to see where people find value. During the 90's, it was stocks. After that, houses. In both cases, the value that people found existed on paper or in their minds. With stocks, at least you could usually sell them right away, with houses; it's all what you think its worth at any given time. So the real question is, are these things valuable? People are starting to ask themselves just that. They ask, is this a tangible asset or a paper asset? In other words, is this widget that I'm chasing real or make-believe?

Inflation, my new found forum friends, seems to be dependent on people's perceptions about the widgets that their currency chases. The fed is doing everything that they can to provide fake financial widgets and sell them to the public as if they have value. But, what they are finding is that more and more people are leaning towards physical widgets rather the financial widgets. The day of reckoning comes when people lose confidence in financial widgets. Hyperinflation of physical widgets will happen at that point and there will be no stopping it until confidence is restored in financial widgets. That is a very difficult thing to do when you can create it out of thin air!

So, my findings lead me to believe that when currency chases something that thing inflates. If there is a rush or panic, that item will hyper-inflate – or limit up every day. It seems to me that people, in general, are starting to seriously question their financial widgets and they are looking for physical ones. This is an investors dream, an opportunity of a lifetime.

Right now, the currency flow into metals is calm. The financial press has made it a point to keep it low key. They don't want currency flowing into physical items, but rather have it stay in financial items. If they are successful, the inflation of metals will be slow and steady. If they are unsuccessful, the rush will be deafening.

Inflation is all around you just waiting for a trigger. Buy physical and take Black Blades advice. If a rush to physical occurs with the general public, hoarding of everything will occur – not just hoarding of gold. Get yours ahead of the crowd and rest easy.

SmeagolHappy coincidence?#1428163/29/06; 19:00:23

Ssir Flatliner... the Moon also eclipsed the Sun today, in Egypt. ~8-)


Mthirsty1Whiterose#1428173/29/06; 19:09:08

I did notice the price of silver climbing above the $11 mark.It has been a long time.I sold some 90% silver coins for a friend of mine 2 months ago,after failing to talk him out of selling.At that time silver was at $9 an ounce,but that was his call.
FlatlinerCelestial bodies are most beautiful on such rare occasions#1428183/29/06; 19:18:55

Goldilox#142815#1428193/29/06; 19:59:37

@ Flatliner,


Financial widgets!

mikalGold#1428203/29/06; 20:02:04

Ask goldilocks, r powell, flatliner, gandalf and white rose. I almost joined the party warning everyone on days when silver, instead of racking up fewer gains, got a few more points on gold. What a shame I didn't taunt the others earlier. But know you now- gold is being hoarded by CB's and big funds like pensions so that it can be dumped on the market making commodities like uranium, oil, silver and rhodium portfolio necessities by default. It's happening now, started in fact a couple months ago.
Also gold's gains were being used as a diversion to prevent the masses and even so-called smart money from getting into the hot commodities too quickly. And the stocks too, many here like to remind us how much better they are. They must continue to do so for our own good.
Well, that's all there is to it. The way to keep most out of the best thing going until the PTB and their inside cronies
finish combing through the commodities and equities. You can tell they're almost done because they're not getting them free anymore.
As for me, I've converted all my holdings into gold puts and shorts and so much silver I've got holes in my floor.

PRITCHOFrom Richard Russell - - - - Latest Comments March 29th, 2006#1428213/29/06; 20:05:13

Richard's well worth the sub -highly recommended:
Precious metals acting well, and I wonder if silver isn't heading (or already in) a short squeeze? Let me put it this way -- I wouldn't want to be short the metals now. And so much for trading the metals bull market, a lot of people already left behind, including many of those brilliant professional traders. You don't trade a big bull market, you hold on tight and buy the dips.

Snip 2:
CONCLUSION -- Once again the stock market rallied just as my PTI was 2 points above its moving average.

My overall strategy -- You can only make the big money when you take a BIG position in an item during a bull market, and you then ride that item into the third phase or speculative phase of the bull market. I chose to do that with gold.

Often, late-comers will enter a bull market in its third phase and show bigger profits than those who entered much earlier but then sold out prior to the third speculative phase. I've seen this happen many times. And there's nothing more frustrating -- to be right and then some jerk makes the real money.

The third phase of the precious metals bull market will begin somewhere ahead -- six month from now, a year from now, six years from now. I don't know when the final phase will begin and neither does anyone else.

The precious metals are still in their second phase. This is the phase which sees the public and the funds gradually enter the market. But remember -- most Americans have never even seen a gold coin, which means that it's early in the bull market, maybe very early.

And that's my story for Wednesday, March 29, in the year 2006.
See you tomorrow --

GoldiloxTHE POLITICS OF FINANCIAL MARKETS#1428223/29/06; 20:06:09


As I said earlier, to maintain global dominance the U.S. must control both the financial markets and maintain military dominance around the globe. When I flip through the channels on TV and talk to friends it seems nobody is paying attention to the geopolitical developments that are taking place. We have been lulled into a state of complacency. I see people fixated on reality TV shows, American Idol, Desperate Housewives, the World Poker Tour and March Madness with the college basketball tournament.

The real "madness" is happening in our financial markets as we wage war on global terror. The scene in Iraq appears to be getting worse, for now Iran has postponed selling oil for euros, our Congressmen have backed-off China to impose trade tariffs and revalue the yuan, Japan says they are near the end of their zero-interest rate policy, and the Fed guns the money supply while raising interest rates to prop-up the dollar. America has been put to sleep with countless "distracters," but President Bush knows he must be tuned-in to the financial markets based on the recent change in his cabinet. Chief of Staff, Andrew Card will be replaced with a big-time insider to the financial markets. My final "cut and paste" for this Wrap-Up comes from Bill Murphy's posting last night on LeMetropoleCafe:

A heads-up from Rob Kirby:

What a "tell" - Andrew Card gone and hello Josh Bolton. How do you spell p-a-n-i-c? I wonder if it's a coincidence that Dubya's new chief of staff just happens to be a former Goldman Sachs director. Seems the most pressing issues facing this Administration might not be exactly as advertised - seems to me it's all about the Broken Monetary System and what to do next. This is why they need to bring a Goldman insider on board - the web of deceit is obviously too complex to bring anyone else up the curve.


Bolten's recent background:

Currently, OMB [office of management and budget] Director Goldman Sachs Executive Director, Legal & Government Affairs 1994-99 Council on Foreign Relations member.

Well folks, there you have it. I'm not so much frustrated with the strange directions and imbalances in the financial markets. As a country, we are at war. Leaders go to extremes to maintain existing power structures. Overseas leaders also go to extremes in their attempt to dislodge existing power structures. If you want to check out an incredibly sobering article posted in the Financial Sense University, please see J.R. Nyquist's most recent contribution titled, "More Tricks." His first two sentences go like this, "The strategic alliance of Russia and China continues to develop, embracing an ever-widening circle of junior partners in the Western Hemisphere (including Cuba, Venezuela, Brazil, Bolivia, and even Mexico). China and Mexico have congratulated themselves on a strategic partnership to the bafflement of those who are clueless about national resentments and historical grudges." The plot thickens.

Flatliner@Financial Widgets#1428233/29/06; 21:29:26

The best thing about financial widgets is that they balance on the books. Being a measure of numbers rather then a measure of value, they are deceptively simple and grossly misleading. Having been burnt by them more then once, I now recommend debt free physical investments and metallic savings.

Oh, I left IMHO off the previous posting. Sometimes I do not feel adequately qualified to speak, let alone post in this respectful forum.

GoldendomeGold has legs tonight#1428243/30/06; 00:07:53

Wow! Spot just jumped the fence at $575 like a dog on steroids! If not mistaken, that takes out the old trading high for the year. Might be on to higher hurdles now???
Caradoc@Goldendome#1428253/30/06; 00:48:33

Yes, yes! Hong Komg took gold over $575 (even before London gets involved!) and silver at $11.25 is higher than since the Hunt brothers were taking delivery. Best of all if you're holding a pile of call options for the two North American palladium miners, that metal is back in play this evening with Kitco showing a high of $340 a few minutes ago and al Jazeera recording it as $340.60.

This will be a memorable Thursday indeed.

Congratulations to all at this table and a big "Thank you" to our host for providing a forum unlike any other.


CaradocI don't trust Kitco.#1428263/30/06; 01:25:25

As has been the case a few times before when gold was acting frisky, it appears to me that Kitco is playing down the price of gold. Within the last couple of minutes, Kitco showed gold dropping from $575.40 and down to $574.10. Note that this number is below the $575 figure that Sinclair says will take gold to $612 in just a short period of time. During those same two minutes, al Jazeera showed gold rising from $575.60 to $576.10. A big psychological difference here with implications for what one should do even if the amount involved is only two dollars per ounce.

In the time it took these clumsy fingers to type the above, al Jazeerah has gold at $578.82 (down from over $579) without ever having revisited anything near $574.

Think about what Kitco is doing and ask yourself whether you can spell the word "disinformation." I hate to say it, but I trust al Jazeerah more than Kitco. If you try the link above and it comes up with any metal other than gold in the little chart to the left of Commodities/Futures, just click on "gold" and the refresh will give you the little gold chart. Then, click on "detach" and you get a resizeable floating chart which if clicked will let you choose chart format. I happen to like the picture when set for 500 1-minute intervals and "line" rather than "candle."


PS: Tried to word this post as personal opinion rather than fact. Hope I succeeded.

Black Blade'Asia must prepare for dollar collapse'#1428273/30/06; 02:00:08

'Asia must prepare for dollar collapse'


ADB: Possibility of a dollar collapse small but fallout huge

East Asian economies need to prepare for a possible collapse of the US dollar, the Asian Development Bank says.

The warning comes as the US trade deficit reaches a record high and global interest rates continue to rise.

Masahiro Kawai, the ADB's head of regional economic integration, said on Tuesday: "Any shock hitting the US economy or the global market may change investors' perceptions given the existing global current account imbalance.

"Our suggestion to Asian countries is: Don't take this continuous financing of the US current account deficit as given. If something happens then East Asian economies have to be prepared."

Black Blade: This is a rare admission. Recently it was suggested by a Bank of China official that China should tap FX reserves to buy gold. Obviously Asian banking officials are worried because they are grossly over weight (morbidly overweight?) in US debt (Treasuries and Bonds). They are supporting the American gluttony of overspending. They also know that the US has no intention whatsoever of paying off this debt. In fact it is impossible unless there is a massive hyper-inflationary eveny to allow the US government to cover with extremely cheap US dollars. The only advantage of course is entirely political because now China has the US by the cajones. They can crash the US dollar and the US economy. In doing so they risk having themselves caught up as collateral damage. Therefore they have been huge buyers of Gold.

China has been buying production directly from RSA mines for years. Curiously the Peoples Bank of China has not been revealing this in their "reserves" reports. They must be depositing this Gold in "sister" banks or "off site" bullion depositories. It has been long rumored and apparently "verified" that China was the major buyer of the Bank of England gold sold at auction by Chancellor Gordon Brown (at the lowest possible prices). The BOE is not commenting nor is China. It is also rumored that China has been buying the Swiss Gold offered up over the lasy few years as well as some of the Belgian and Dutch Gold sold by those national banks. Other Asian buyers are reported to be the central banks of Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Taiwan (even possibly Vietnam). The Asians are making preparations while the west transfers wealth from west to east.

Meanwhile westerners mindlessly continue on their way without a care in the world. Meanwhile Asians are making preparations for the inevitable. It is the old story of "The Grasshopper and The Ant".

"Interesting Times"

Black BladeGuns and Butter - THE HIGH COST OF INFLATION#1428283/30/06; 02:40:56


A rant is due, on the eve of the latest screwball USFed rate hike. While the USEconomy boasts of being advanced, sophisticated, and developed, the last three decades have seen a crippling dependence upon inflation for the generation of wealth. The cost of this inflation has begun to show itself as extreme, widespread, and overbearing on the middle class. The natural backlash comes in the form of economic decay, lost jobs, and reduced standard of living. The undue reliance of the financial engineering has as its central core power pack the monetary inflation machinery, which has undermined our national sovereignty. The pathogenesis of inflation as a disease has been motivated since the 1970 decade by an insistence on a "guns & butter" agenda. It has required an ongoing justification based upon shifting chapters of economic mythology to sustain its dishonest foundation, new definitions on what prosperity means, and even the means of how wealth is generated.

Black Blade: Another good article by Jim Willie. So far the boyz and girlz at the BLS and Fed have been able to pull the wool over the eyes of John Q Public and misdirect the Carnival Barkers at CNBC. While they tout a US public debt of a mere $9 Trillion and an inflation rate of 4%, the "real" public debt is closer to $53 Trillion (including "off budget" debt and "one time expenditures" - thanks to former Treasury Sec. Paul O'Neill for spilling his guts after being fired), and a "real inflation" rate closer to 12-14%.

The Fed raised rates a mere 25 bps the day before yesterday and gave us a 4.75 Fed funds rate. However, the "real rate" is wildly negative ("real" inflation minus "Fed funds rate" = "negative real rate"). Enough people around the world know what is happening and they are buying hard assets like Gold and Silver for "portfolio insurance". The "real rate" is so extremely negative - possibly greater than -8%, making hard assets like precious metals "screaming buys". The Carnival Barkers on CNBC are at a loss to explain why commodities and in particular why Platinum, Gold, and Silver are soaring to new highs. They explain the rapid rise in Platinum and Silver prices as being related to "industrial demand" metals and the new Barclay's Silver ETF. However, they stutter a lot when it comes to Gold.

It really is not a mystery to anyone paying attention to the world around them or the world outs