USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

Electronic reproduction sourced from
Caradoc@Gandalf#13856012/1/05; 00:25:54

Hail, Wizard! Link is photo of the same bedrock just downstream from my claim. It's up for bid now. Wouldn't mind having a neighbor from this Table, even one who likes pointy hats.


GoldiloxLovely Stream#13856112/1/05; 03:41:44

@ Caradoc,

I think those beautiful [golden] autumn leaves would set the wizards's pointy hat spinning!


Blanchard's statement amounts to a weak explanation that they, Mr. Donald Doyle and Blanchard SOLD OUT to the GOLD cartel. WHERE IS THE JUSTICE/DAMAGES FOR THE PAST MANIPULATIONS IN GOLD PRICING AGAINST GOLD OWNERS by HEDGING AND SHORTING THE MARKET,THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LAWASUIT. A resolution to stop hedging for 10 years? Barrick's other GOLD cartel members can do their short and future hedging for them, the same way the FED is manipulating TREASURIES, with dummy corporations/banks in the Carribean. Mr. Doyle has instructed his brokers at BLANCHARD to tell their clients (MYSELF INCLUDED) that BARRICK has covered some/most of their short hedges, which I assumed was one of the main points of the lawsuit. What a joke! If BARRICK would have covered their hedges, GOLD would be at a minimum of $3,000 per ounce. Let's look at a chronological tmetable of events in the past two years.
1.) In the Discovery Phase of the litigation, we have an admission of guilt on the basis that the motion against the defendants should be dropped, because they (BARRICK and JPM/CHASE are in bed with entities that are immune from prosecution.
2.) We have a judge who states that there is sufficient evidence to proceed to trial-another heavily weighed fact that damage has occurred against GOLD OWNERS.
3.) In hearings we have documented evidence that BARRICK and JPM/CHASE are not turning over documents, information, etc. to the plantiffs.
3B.) We have a judge basically admitting that the overwhelming evidence against the defendent is so substantial that she more or less orders all parties to settle out of court.
4.) We have an abrupt settlement with JPM/CHASE where their lawyers are claiming no wrongdoing. NO WRONGDOING AND IN THE DISCOVERY PHASE WE HAVE ADMISSIONS OF GUILT?????? GOLDBUGS ARE NOT THAT STUPID.
5.) We have an abrupt settlement with BARRICK with no damages being paid out!!!! Manipulation of stocks (ENRON, WORLDCOM, ETC.) resulted in monetary damages being paid. Why not with regards to GOLD?????
6.) We have a statement by Mr. Doyle and Blanchard, stating that for 10 years Barrick limits/stops their GOLD hedging and this minimal conditon constitutes victory and was the original basis for the settlement with BARRICK. WHAT A JOKE!
I feel like the biggest fool, dumb---,idiot,imbecile, the world for defending you, Mr. Doyle to people in public, on chat forums, etc. for stating that you would not sell out GOLDBUGS, and get what was rightfully ours (monetary damages) due to unlawful manipulaton of the price of GOLD. Somebody give the trophy! I deserve it for being so stupid. SETTLEMENT UNDER WRAPS? I CAN SEE WHY YOU DO NOT WANT ANYBODY TO KNOW THE TERMS OF THE SETTLEMENT! WHAT IS IN THOSE DOCUMENTS THAT IS SO INCRIMINATING???? Now instead of defending you, I am going to do all I can to warn people about what has transpired the last two years and have them avoid any business relations with you and your company. No day will go by without me expressing my opinion about you and your company to the general public. Please terminate my business relationship with your company immediately.

spotlightBlanchard#13856312/1/05; 04:31:06

Hoosier Goldbug
Great reply to Blanchard and associates. You covered all that was on my mind. I hope there is another suit against them. I can't stand injustice, or the kind of "sellout" Blachard is guilty of. I sure would like to know the truth of what actually transpired. I feel your anger and pain...

HOOSIER GOLDBUGConsequences!#13856412/1/05; 05:15:25

My anger and pain is the consequences of being the biggest dumb--- in the world! Still waiting for my trophy!
1.) In 1996 I started my own MULTI-LEVEL MARKETING company by getting invoved in "FAMILY OF EAGLES" started by Mr. Jerry Osteen in Dallas, Texas. To secure a position you bought 27 1/10 ounce GOLD AMERICAN EAGALE COINS FOR $1980. I DID NOT do it for the finanacial increase in FIAT, because I took/reinvested all my proceeds in other positions in the downline and of course the 27 GOLD COINS that came with every purchase of $1890 + $90 shipping and even excercised the coin payment option for some of the earnings. But mainly I wanted to get people excited about GOLD, REAL MONEY, REAL WORTH, REAL VALUE, etc., an education I had received in 1970 from a JEW who I attended college with at WESTERN KENTUCKY UNIVERSITY and the little known fact that supposedly with every purchase of AMERICAN EAGLE COINS, a part of the proceeds is used to pay down the NATIONAL DEBT.
2.) To help get the business off the ground with people who did not understand the importance of REAL WEALTH,including the my immediate family I gave all my involved parties the option of cashing in their positions and their purchases with me if they became disenchanted with their involvement in this marketing scheme. GOLD PRICE IN 1996 was in the $400's.
3.) Immediately GOLD began to slide and with the strong dollar, I was competing with/against strong gains in the stock market (which eventually adjusted downward). 75% of my downline cashed in/exercised the option I had given them. It cost me thousands and thousands of dollars buying GOLD at just over $700 an ounce to stand by my promise.
4)GOLD continued to slide, eventually to the $200's and I was the butt of jokes, ridicule, sarcasm, etc. by everybody including my family. More people exercised their options. It cost me more thousands and thousands of dollars more! THANK GOD/JESUS that I had the income/means to sustain this setback, although marital and economic conditons at home were deteriorating.
5.) Now with the SELL OUT by Mr. Doyle and Blanchard, the people I had been putting off to exercise their options, with no monetary retribution for the damages now a reality, I will now have to come up with thousands and thousands of dollars to make good on my commitment to the rest of the people in my downline, which with the price of GOLD declining over the past 10 years, has subsequently caused "FAMILY OF EAGLES" to no longer operate, which they have not operated for some time.
My only consolation is that FREEGOLD is on the way! But it does little to rectify the consequences/damages/injuries inflicted by the GOLD cartel the past ten years and the fact that I am the biggest dumb--- in the world

9681 December 2005 - Monetary policy decisions#13856512/1/05; 06:40:16

The minimum bid rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem will be increased by 0.25 percentage point to 2.25%, starting from the operation to be settled on 6 December 2005.
Rook(No Subject)#13856612/1/05; 07:04:09

Hoosier Goldbug, Your an honorable guy.
RookHG#13856712/1/05; 07:39:59

Hoosier Goldbug, how can it be said that you are dumb?
Anyone that demeans you does not know what they are talking about. I have freinds and relatives that lost everything, and I do mean everything, at the casinos. There is a world of difference between what they did, and what you have bet on. Building a global fiat system on first try is almost, but apparently not totally, impossible. It may yet fail. Those that dont understand you dont see that the system is built on all the same solid stuff that a ponzi scheme is. The pig with the bricks also took some flack. We dont think he is dumb. And his family and freinds came around to his thinking also.
It is not one wolf we are facing, but a pack.

Clink!Flat, but tilted#13856812/1/05; 07:52:09

I have been too busy to post anything of substance recently but have been really enjoying some of the pithy commentary over the last couple of weeks - thanks to all !

I have been listening to "The World is Flat" by Thomas Friedman in the car, and while I find much of his purely descriptive narrative about the upsurge in services from India and manufacturing from China somewhat superfluous in my case (I spent almost two hours last night on a conference call with my Chinese colleagues, so I don't just know the score - I'm living it !), there are some interesting points raised which hadn't occurred to me - well worth the read/listen. As the book has been the best non-fiction seller all summer, it is not surprising that there have been other articles on the same subject. This is one from Newsweek :-


But if it was always flawed, the argument is now in tatters in the face of the second aforementioned factor: the entrance into the global economy of China and India. Not only do they offer low costs, which the strong dollar further reduces, butâ€"contrary to common assumptions about developing countriesâ€"significant portions of their populations are highly skilled. They can thus be competitive across the entire range of manufactured goods and services. The negation of time and distance by the Internet and air-express services makes this all the more true.

End snip.

In other words, we (in the West) should not be making the fundamental mistake that China and India are making us compete in a "race to the bottom", but rather that, in terms of a workforce, they are superior to their Western counterparts in almost every way - education, drive, work ethic etc. What they have lacked is opportunity due to lack of infrastructure, and that has been due to lack of capital investment. That is now changing, and we are beginning to see the emergence in them of one of the last Western advantages - the leisure to dream.

On a related but different topic, one of the burning questions of many economists (especially the amateur ones here !) is how is it that a/ the US dollar isn't spinning down in a death spiral due to deficits, and b/ how long are the Japanese and Chinese going to put up with taking "worthless" bits of green paper in exchange for real goods and services. I would submit that they are being true Keynesians. Keynes put forward the thesis (among many others) that governmental deficit spending on a punctual basis in a recession could be beneficial in bringing about a return to prosperity, and the possibility of paying back the deficit with the resultant surplus on the upturn. Governments around the world have, of course, corrupted this to the point of saying that it is OK to have constant deficits (some limited, as in the EU, some less so as in countries about to go belly up or the US (this could be one and the same thing in the end)), and you don't have to pay the debt back.
What is the difference between a country building up debt which it knows it will never pay back (except by deliberate inflation) and a country that accepts currency which it knows may one day be worthless ? Not a great deal - with the first there will be a big hole in their collective assets which they have to pay nominal interest on, while with the second there is also a hole in their assets which is gaining nominal interest. China and Japan (and other Asian countries) are merely using the US deficit as a means of hiding the generation of a deficit on their part. China is gaining by improving the infrastructure and, thereby, power, of its nation, while Japan is keeping itself solvent.
And when does the music stop ? When there is no longer any need to keep exporting to the US in order to keep the economic expansion going. Or when China becomes so huge that its trade deficit (yes, it is even now a net importer) starts to dwarf that of the US. But I think we would be wise to differentiate between the music stopping for the USD and the music stopping for the US.


Clink!Ya just can't keep a POG down ...#13856912/1/05; 08:05:15

One of the commonly used images to describe the effect of increasing shorts on the POG is that of pushing a volleyball deeper and deeper underwater, the theory being that the deeper you push it, the higher it will rise when it is finally released. Unfortunately, as anyone who has been scuba diving knows, that is not how buoyancy works - if you push a ball down, the water pressure increases and compresses the ball so that it displaces less water and therefore has less buoyancy and has less upward force. OK, end of science lesson (sorry, the engineer in me just has to come out occasionally ....).

However, looking at the action of the POG over thee last few days, I am amazed at the way that the POG has just been bobbing up to the surface again, and also the incredibly short period of the oscillation - less than 24 hours. It doesn't appear to even be linked to any particular time zone anymore. It's not gonna go to the Moon yet, but it sure looks like it's going to come to a critical point in the VERY NEAR FUTURE !


seeker$500 GOLD#13857012/1/05; 08:18:48

Gold has once again STRONGLY passed the $500 mark.
WhitewaterwomanWhipsaws and $6 rule out the window?#13857112/1/05; 09:08:40 for those of us who are relative newbies, is this what they mean by POG whipsaw action? And does it look like the $6/day rule has fallen by the wayside? I'd guess that the invisible hand (not our illustrious poster, but the real ones) is getting carpal tunnel syndrome by now, or at the very least a very sore wrist from pushing down against a rising force.
OvSWhWaWo#13857212/1/05; 09:53:38

Yes, trading is as trecherous
as navigating whitewaters with
a kayak.
It's not a oneway street. The
shorts might be short over long
stretches but clean up nicely
in the inbetween reversals.
They start pushing it down,
waiting for the avalanche to
develop, and when things start
to dry up, jump in and buy back
enough to reverse and sputter up
'til the exitables get exited,
It is soothing to ride a bull
market with the physical in hand;
in the end it's even more gainful
to just watch the spectacle of
trading. Good Luck. OvS

Buongiorno!Hoosier Goldbug#13857312/1/05; 10:12:10

Hang in there, Sir Goldbug, for I can tell that you are very talented and intelligent. You shall prevail, for you are in excellent company, are in the right, and have lots of us to help out. They will surely, upon occasion, knock us all down. The only question is, "Do we get back up?" The key is X+1, (we get up one more time), and I am pleased to see that you have not lost your fighting spirit.

"Illegitimi non Carborundum"

Gandalf the WhiteWOWSERS !! See what a little rest and Roo will do ?#13857412/1/05; 10:13:53

SIC 'um you Daws !
Jump, Jump, Jump !!
and bite them COT's in the behind !!!

OvSWhWaWo#13857512/1/05; 10:41:12

Treacherous, indeed.
That $6.-rule or similar
rules are another ruse.
By the time enough people
believe in it "them" can
and do use it to get you
at crucial points.

Flatliner@BLANCHARD STATEMENT!#13857612/1/05; 10:54:02


Since I found this forum, it seems to me that there are a lot of people here that share the view that the gold supply must be exhausted to bring down the gold cartel. To me, this idea slaps the face of Freegold. Freegold requires an adequate supply of gold trading in the market. But, to break the gold cartel, the supply must dry up. Hum…

To me, if we (gold bugs) take this stand, we will be living with the gold cartel for a very long time.

I believe that Freegold will come about under different circumstances. I believe that it will happen when gold-bugs organize to offer a sound monetary system that competes with the current ones. If the general public has a choice between choosing borrowing money from a private bank that doesn't have to show its books or a bank that openly shows its books, which would they choose?

Honest people will support honest banking. At that point, the entire fiat system will not be able to compete.

So, buy your gold and vent your emotions. It will not be long before you (the gold bug) will be in a situation to change the system. But, in order for this change to occur, you (the gold bug) must truly understand the value of gold – not the price of gold.

If you want to break the gold cartel, you will tell everyone that you know to buy gold and hold it. Not with the hope of exhausting the supply, but with the hope of building a reserve that is large enough to compete with the gold cartel.

Good day to all.


Sir Flatliner,
If everybody we all know buys GOLD and since there is a finite supply, will we not have exhausted the supply??????????? Please elaborate!

FlatlinerThe value goes beyond a price#13857812/1/05; 11:34:41

Gold is a store of value. People buy it as a storage medium. One person today may be a buyer, but someone of yester-year may be a seller. In other words, would you store your value forever? It just doesn't seem to work like that. Regardless of the price, someone somewhere will come into the market to convert what they've stored back into something that they can use. This action can be forced if oil only traded for gold. Would you hold your gold and go without oil? … No. You wouldn't. (And we all know that the oil companies are just like the gold cartel.)

Real Gold bugs are also a small community. Many choose paper contracts and play the price game thinking that they are gold bugs. But, they are not. They don't see the value, but they see the price. Thus, getting everyone to hold their gold and not sell it is a laughing matter (I was laughed at here).

How big is big enough to compete? Well, if there are 155,000 tonnes above ground and 30,000 tonnes owned by fiat controlling banks. It would seem to me that 30,000 tonnes of gold supplies confidence to the world currencies. How much money is there? 200,000 trillion? 100,000,000 million trillion? I don't know, I've never tried to wrap my thoughts around that.

What would it take to compete? I would contend that it would only take sound money to compete. Sound money that follows many of the same rules that people perceive today. That is, they want to borrow money from a bank to buy a house or start a business. Today, banks have a 10:1 leverage and hold a depreciating reserve (US dollars). Would a bank with gold reserves at 100% with open books be able to compete? And, at what level?

Say, a bank was to open in Denver with 100,000 coins on reserve. The current market value of that reserve is 50 million. That bank could loan up to 50 million at 100% reserve. That 50 million would bring in some return, say, 5%. If the people taking on loans from that bank were to make good on their interest, the reserve will grow from 100,000 coins to 105,000. Interest is paid in real commodities.

There is a side affect in all of this that should bring a smile to your face. If the original 100,000 coins ‘own the bank’, they get to make the decisions that determine bank policy. The bank is affectively, publicly owned and controlled by gold bugs. The owners also get to profit share.

Now, if there were a number of these little banks springing up all around the place, all of a sudden, people in major cities get to choose where they do business. They can either go to a bank that openly values honesty, or they can go to the huge existing banks that, well, sell naked what ever they feel and hide it.

It's your choice. You own the bank. You vote on its policies because you own the gold. You, are the future of banking.

GoldiloxPOG up in spite of Dollar strength#13857912/1/05; 11:39:28

in your face - USDX!
Gandalf the WhiteWHERE is SIR Zhisheng -- when you NEED HIM !!!#13858012/1/05; 11:46:53

HE would say --- "UP into the Close !"

Gandalf the WhiteAre you still pouring CONCRETE, Sir Rich ?#13858112/1/05; 11:55:31

The Lone Ranger is calling you.

OvSSir Powell#13858212/1/05; 12:11:46

Of course, he is pouring
concrete furiously to
finish his private Ft.Knox
before the prices really

TownCrierCOMEX gold rallies to 23-year high... "Gold is still very cheap" says strategist#13858312/1/05; 12:18:48

NEW YORK, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Gold futures in New York raced to their highest level in almost 23 years on Thursday morning, powered by investment fund buying following the breakout above the key $500 an ounce level earlier this week, dealers said.

"The $500 level was a psychological point and we broke through that," said Emanuel Balarie, senior market strategist at Wisdom Financial Inc. "With gold still rising today, I think we are going to crack $600 sometime in 2006."

Balarie felt that one reason gold had room to rise further was that bullion's high of $850, touched in 1980, after being adjusted for inflation today, would be now worth around $2,150 in current dollars.

"Gold is still very cheap when you look at it in that perspective," he said.

^---(from url)---^

To arrive at comparable price estimations, adjusting for current dollars is only a start. One should also take into account the social shifts since 1980 that have not only increased global population but have also improved the individual gold investment market conditions in such places as China, India, Russia, etc, etc.

Along with those factors, the total volume of mined gold has also been expanded, but all things considered, $2,150 is only scratching the surface. At $500/oz, gold is indeed still very cheap.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial for a consultation and superior prices on gold to diversify your portfolio.

The call is TOLL FREE. 1-800-869-5115


TownCrierRequest your FREE Introductory Information Packet from USAGOLD#13858412/1/05; 12:38:52

No need to wait for the postman, the info packet is immediately available online, with access instructions promptly sent to you via email upon submittiing your request.

It's fast, it's free, and best of all, it's informative!


TownCrierAsian central banks likely to increase gold reserves#13858512/1/05; 13:21:02

(People's Daily) December 01, 2005 -- ... central banks of Asian countries, including China, are expected to further increase their gold reserves, according to International Finance News reports.

Russia, Argentina and SouthAfrica have decided this month to increase their gold reserves, which reversed the selling trend in six years by world central banks, especially European ones.

It is only a question of time for Asian central banks to follow and buy in gold: they hold 2.6 trillion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves, and able to change more of them into gold as a hedge against US dollar falls.

The US dollar will inevitably slip further.

Some budget deficits of the seven major industrial countries are at a record level, and central banks are "printing banknotes" to devalue their currencies. Huge amount of budget deficits and debts in Europe, America and Japan will finally force them to increase real interest rates in an effort to drag economies back to the right track.

This means slower growth rate and lower prices of stock, bond and real estate as well as faster increase of inflation -- a golden opportunity for central banks to buy in gold.

Asian countries have good reasons to hold more gold. Compared with developed countries, their percentages of gold in foreign exchange reserves are apparently small. Asian investors are the world largest gold consumers, but gold only takes 1.1 percent in China's official reserves, or 1.3 and 3.6 percent in Japan and India respectively.

Due to fluctuations of major currencies, Asian countries may not choose to change their US dollars into euros. Meanwhile, they don't like holding too much dollars, so one of the way outs is simply to have more gold. Of courses, Asian countries need coordination in this regard, since action from a single country may trigger strong fluctuations of exchange rates and harm economic activities.

^---(from url)---^

Slowly but surely, step by step, there is a growing awareness of the international monetary reserve evolution that is underway. Fortunately for you you've been tuned into this wavelength and by acquiring gold you are well-positioned to benefit greatly from the transition.

And if you're in the market for more, be a good neighbor and choose USAGOLD-Centennial as your source of gold. The brokers will appreciate your business as much as you'll appreciate their competitive prices and professional service. It's in your hands to make the call. 1-800-869-5115. It's as easy as that.


TownCrierPension fund investment in commodities to grow#13858612/1/05; 13:32:07

LONDON (Reuters) - UK pension funds currently invest only a small amount of money into commodities, but more is expected to be allocated as institutions increase portfolio diversification, sector specialists said on Tuesday. a typical UK pension fund, the portfolio allocation ration is roughly 60/40 'equity/bond', with over 90 percent of the risk in equities.

That allocation is likely to change...

Kevin Harrington, managing director of U.S.-based Clarium Capital Management, said that for long periods gold was linked to the dollar, and this inverse relationship was a relatively simple investment -- gold rose when the dollar fell and stayed broadly flat in euros.

"But after the French and Dutch (EU Constitutions), gold strengthened in euros -- gold outperformed..."

^---(from url)---^

Central banks are acquiring it for its superior stability. Hedge and pension funds are acquiring it for its superior ability to diversify their exposure to paper risks. You should be acquiring it likewise for all these reasons and more. Choose gold and put a solid foundation under your portfolio.


Kiwi chickGold up yes. But US dollar down!#13858712/1/05; 13:32:32

When I first bought into gold (1997) $1 New Zealand would buy US 0.40c. Now it will buy US 0.70c US.

So, does the US cost of gold going up make it a good investment for non-US citizens? Perhaps not - so far anyway. But with the US dollar plummeting it sure does look like a good idea for those who already have US dollars in savings or other US dollar investments.

TownCrierKiwi chick, on the wisdom of Kiwi's choosing gold...#13858812/1/05; 13:52:24*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=1997&ld=1&lm=12&ly=2005&y=monthly&q=volume&f=jpeg&a=lin&m=0&x=

Thanks for tuning in. It's always good to hear from the downunder folks.

If you look at the gold graph (linked above) for the performance of gold as priced in Kiwi-dollars from your indicated 1997 timeframe onward, I think you will easily conclude that holding gold has been a worthwhile endeavor. And all macro signs point to a continuation of that favorable performance. Up, up, and away...


BoilermakerKiwi Chick#13858912/1/05; 14:02:36*&fd=1&fm=1&fy=1997&ld=31&lm=12&ly=2005&y=daily&q=volume&f=png&a=lin&m=0&x=

Welcome to the Forum as I don't recall seeing your posts before!

Your NZ$ has been doing exceptionally well vs. the US$ but even so gold has been doing reasonably well for you. The link is a chart for gold in NZ$ and has gone from about $500 to $700 over 9 years for a compound annual rate of 3.8%. That's not very exciting and probably you could have done better with many other local investments. The decision for you is whether to have faith in your government's fiduciary management for the next ten years or take matters in your own hands in the form of precious metals (or other real assets that have no encumberences). Only you can make that call.

Camel" Cornered"#13859012/1/05; 14:16:27

Seems like the question has arisen as to why a CB holding gold would sell if they knew the price was going up .The answer might be to get more people on your team. Another once said the gold market had been "cornered". If this is so , you would want a few allies who have something to gain to help run up the price . If they have bought a sizable amount at a low price then they are happy and would only have to buy more and the value of what they have goes up, and of course they have plenty of dollars to buy with.
R PowellYes, wonderous wizard.....#13859112/1/05; 15:10:48

my partner and I poured a house and two car garage today which is why I'm just now (4:38 pm EST) checking the MRCI daily delayed quotes. There's nothing delayed now about the metals' closing prices as Comex closed a few hours ago. Nice way to come home!

I have no idea how high the POG and/or POS will go on this run but I'm now somewhat convinced that gold, maybe silver and certainly copper are demand driven markets. What the currencies do (dollar strength or weakness) may no longer matter. I'm not an avid fan of Another or FOA but remember that both predicted that eventually the POG would rise WITH the dollar. Eventually may be now. Price setbacks may be sudden and severe but only because two dollars is no longer a big day. These setbacks may also be very temporary, as copper has shown ever since its last bottom around 135. I wondered why copper retracted that much when it did....was it a rogue Chinese seller shorting in the face of warehouse numbers that were screaming higher price and price rationing? Warehouse copper supplies were drawn down to only a small percentage of what they were only a year or two ago. Miners can not ramp up production with one year's farmers can with grains. And silver production? Hey, there just aren't many primary silver mining operations left, are there? I always wish we could get available silver supply numbers as we can with something like copper. How much is out there, in deliverable form (not silverware) to satisfy industrial need?

If the market players and metal end users are surprised by the excelerated demand now, what will happen if/when they find out that gold and silver are actually in a supply/demand deficit with no huge stocks left to draw on? I'd guess that those who need it most are the ones who will get what they need, but the market's function is to ration supply + see that it does get to those who need it most. The market is very, very good at this. It does it through price. (very wide grin here)

Someone please remind me to once again pour a house and two car garage when next gold and silver prices start to fall. ......Yah, I know, prices have nothing to do with anything I do or don't do. It's the chart readers who look for patterns from the past to predict tomorrow's price. I guess it's only human nature to attempt to find some logic, order, pattern, or rhyme or reason in the paper casino price moves. If all else fails, look to the heavens or your gods for the answer. If even that leaves you in doubt, read the entrails of a plump Rhone Island Red chicken, at midnight under a new moon! Now then, we know that method never fails! But it is messy.

As always, just one poor man's disjointed opinions here. Not worth very much. Paper players such as myself need to be cautious now, these markets will become very volatile during the near + perhaps long term future.
Thanks for thinking of me Gandalf

Flatliner@HOOSIER GOLDBUG#13859212/1/05; 15:19:22

After thinking about my reply, I am sure you are looking for a little more information. So am I, that is why I'm always reading in this forum.

To start with, I am sure that exhausting the supply of gold would have a profound affect on the markets and all who play those markets. It may be true, that Goldbugs could break the gold cartel if they were able to eliminate the supply.

But then what? At that point, the entire world civilization will be looking for a solution. What is that solution? Do we, as a world, switch to another fiat currency? Do we collectively create new rules for the market and then continue more of the same?

What I find most interesting, is that it appears that very few people in the US are looking for solutions to the current problems and that the backers of the Euro are looking to win world status for their currency.

Is there a third option? I believe that there is and you don't need to hold any politically managed currency to participate.

Now, back to banking. If central banks around the world have cornered the market with 30,000 tonnes of gold, what about the other 125,000 tonnes? If 30 thousand tonnes of gold is the world reserve, why can't we, Goldbugs, collect our own? Getting out my handy-dandy converter, I believe 1 tonne is about 32,000 ounces. The Central Banks say they hold about 1 billion ounces. How much would it take to play with the big boys? 1 million ounces? 10 million?

It just so happens that the GATA team (Great work) has a little article that may help shed some light on things: So, would 25 tonnes be enough to get the worlds attention? That seems like more they many countries out there. If so, we're talking about less then a million ounces. The best part about this is that we only need 25 (or so tonnes) out of 125,000. That's 0.02 percent of the free gold that exists (sorry, just had to use the term ‘free’ here).

Notice, that I wrote, that we already own it? Many on this forum felt my panic in previous posts when I did not know how much people really held. It's clear to me now that the people already have what they need in order to challenge the big boys. All we have to do is gather it together and put it to work.

For those of you that have not started a company, a company is created when people get together for form an entity to perform some operation either for profit or not. Every local government in the states will let you open the company. With every company, there is a set of rules that must followed. Banks probably have the biggest set. But, they exist, the rules are manageable.

Also, in the process of building a company, those that get together to form it must agree to the function of the company. Collateral is raised, shares are issues, rules are written and the company comes into existence. Once a year the shareholders get together and vote on company issues. Every once in a while, if the company makes a profit, it can share that through dividends with the shareholders. Notice that the people that form the company get to form the rules by which the company operates. They also get to share in the profits.

If this new company took on the form of a bank with 100% reserves, it would be independent from the central bank. If it had its own reserves, it wouldn't have to go in debt to come up with reserves. If it had 100% reserves, it would be able to handle a run on the bank. If it followed general business practices and conducted honest independent audits, the bank would build trust in the population. The bank must also not take unnecessary risks.

The key is to establish 100% trust in the community. If the new bank can do this, it will win all the business from the banks that cannot win the trust. Thanks to the internet and digital money, banking is very easy to do today.

Is this idea tempting? Yes. Possible? I don't know. No one has done it.

Does this help explain my position? If not, I will craft a few more words.

BoilermakerReassuring Economic News #13859312/1/05; 15:47:28

"BCG Attorney Search, the largest legal recruiting firm in the nation dedicated to the placement of attorneys in law firms, has released statistics tracking the overall hiring demands of America's largest and most prestigious law firms (typically of more than 100 attorneys), comparing the months of November 2004 and November 2005. The statistics show a startling increase in hiring demand across virtually every practice area............"You can tell a lot about the overall economy based on law firms' hiring needs," said A. Harrison Barnes, Managing Director of BCG Attorney Search. "Our clients are the largest and most prestigious law firms, and when their work picks up, it is a sign that things are going well in the economy."...........A few practice areas saw especially significant growth due to law firms' bringing aboard an additional number of associates and partners. The fastest-growing practice area was antitrust and trade regulation law, which witnessed an increase in demand for attorneys of a startling 1,200 percent when comparing November 2005 to November 2004.

Don't worry about our economy, we'll just hire more attorneys to keep things humming. I don't suppose these 150K salaries will be passed through to us poor slobs on the street. BLS will need to have a new inflation adjustment for "enhanced legal content". God bless the lawers, they will inherit the earth (or whats left of it).

R PowellPension fund investments#13859412/1/05; 16:03:54

Thanks Townie, for the post + link. This is from your snippet........

"UK pension funds currently invest only a small amount of money into commodities, but more is expected to be allocated as institutions increase portfolio diversification, sector specialists said on Tuesday."

I believe, but I'm not sure so if anyone knows for sure please speak up, that these funds are long only vehicles. Just as mutual funds are long only as opposed to hedge funds which can short, I believe these new commodity investment funds can invest only by buying....and, of course, sell what they own at any time. But they do not sell short. This has been a subject of some debate among commodity traders as monies invested on only one side of the game, the long side, will certainly cause prices to tend to be overinflated(overvalued), no? But, this remains a theory as no one can say with any certainty, at any point in time, what the true value of anything is, much less whether it is over or under valued. Truth, if it exists, or can be stated without being altered by subjective opinion, is probably a constantly moving target. Perhaps two plus two equals four only in our own particular universe.?? But, I fear, I'm once again somewhere lost, off subject so I'll close.

Who used to say BC BN? Maybe $500+ gold will bring the return of some oldtimers, if only to say hello?

TownCrierRich, longs#13859512/1/05; 16:28:49

When a managed portfolio can't go short like the hedgies can, and are therefore put somewhat at the mercy of bearish hedgie momentum, it provides all the more reason for those steadfast portfolios to find a suitable means to diversify their vulnerable currency/stocks/bonds. Ideally with unshortable gold. Thus the sooner the better that "free gold" arrives more fully fledged on the market scene (despite your general dismissal and/or skepticism of that project).

On the subject of returning oldtimers, I have it on good authority that we will likely be hearing from one of them very soon.


R PowellFlatliner#13859612/1/05; 16:30:45

Have you considered the role that supply and demand play in determining price when thinking of the concept of the market running out of supply? And yes, I'll agree with you that gold becoming "free" as a result of the market actually running out of physical seems strange. If none exists, then none can be either bought or more market at all. If an item exists but can not be bought at any price whatsoever...does it become priceless? Is this what Belgian means by the term "freegold"..??????

Sometimes I think of the invisible hand as similar to the theory behind calculus, in that the number one can be divided ad infinatum but the result never becomes zero. I would guess that no matter how little gold exists as compared to the world's total demand, we'll never see the market disappear. Also, unless men employ a totally new concept of exchange that replaces the use of money, gold will never become divorced from a monetary equivalent. How, then, does gold become "free" of the monetary system, whether or not gold is used as a "reserve" of some sort? I do not understand. I'm better at simple concepts...I like pouring + finishing concrete...physical but relatively simple in concept. It also has a very short job completion cycle so satisfaction is a daily occurance, usually..

goldquestRich,#13859712/1/05; 16:35:35

credit Scruffy for BC BN. (Buy Cheap, Buy Now)
Gandalf the WhiteGREAT JUMPING today "SPOT" & SPIKE !!! <;-)#13859812/1/05; 16:55:27

Looks as if the "Daily Limit" is history !
WHEN shall we see an "UP LIMIT" day ?

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#13859912/1/05; 17:15:11">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

THURSDAY Market Excerpts

Gold above $500, revisits 23-year old levels

December 1 (from Reuters, MarketWatch) -- Gold prices soared to their highest level in close to 23 years in New York on Thursday, powered by more investment fund buying after the breakout above the key $500 an ounce mark earlier this week, dealers said.

COMEX February gold futures settled up $7.60 at $506.30, just below a session high at $506.80, which marked the priciest for a benchmark futures contract since February 1983.

Gold's fundaments have been positive and investors were diversifying their portfolios as currencies were not offering strong returns, analysts said. Inflation worries also persisted given firm oil prices. Spot gold surged to a near-23-year high at $503 an ounce in New York.

Market watchers said that both physical and investment demand for gold are strong while supply is reasonably tight, and the metal is garnering increased respect as an asset class and as a currency proxy.

"What is different perhaps now from the last time gold was above the $500 mark is that you probably have less supply issues going forward (now)," said Mark Johnson, portfolio manager of USAA Precious Metals and Minerals Fund.

"Most of the mining companies don't really have that much on the plate in terms of new production and most of what is coming on stream is replacing mines that are shutting," he added. "Mine supply should stay tight."

"The strength in the metals sector is now undeniable as gold crosses key technical barriers and approaches levels it hasn't seen in decades," said veteran commodities trader Kevin Kerr, noting that the market is seeing "buying strength from every direction -- funds, physical, futures... The demand is real and at these levels of pricing, we expect to see a sustained rise in 2006."

Overall, "the short squeeze is on and bearish metals traders are certainly feeling the pinch," said Kerr, who also edits Global Resources Trade, a newsletter service of MarketWatch.

"Gold and silver are both trading off inflationary fears and technical buying," said Charlie Nedoss, an analyst at Peak Trading Group, adding that there may also be "good physical demand out of Asia and the Middle East."

Looking ahead, "profit taking is the only, but short-lived risk to the short-term upside trend," said Frederic Panizzutti, an analyst at MKS Finance in Geneva.

"Any price setback will meet with fresh buying."

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---

R PowellTownCrier#13860012/1/05; 17:19:31

Your reply, thanks.....

"When a managed portfolio can't go short like the hedgies can, and are therefore put somewhat at the mercy of bearish hedgie momentum, it provides all the more reason for those steadfast portfolios to find a suitable means to diversify their vulnerable currency/stocks/bonds. Ideally with unshortable gold."

I find the idea of so much of this country's pension funds (managed portfolios) in long only accounts as a disaster waiting to (re)happen. Even an account of long stocks can be hedged with a small investment favoring the short side of the index numbers, a simple put or short contract on the Dow, S+P or Nasdoggie, with its leverage, could have saved millions of investors from the huge loses in March 2000 when the stock bubble burst. As insurance, the cost of this would have been minimal compared to the gains realized (but not cashed in!!!) before the tech bubble burst, no?

By "unshortable gold" I assume you mean physical metal in hand. I fully concur. It is the safest insurance available. I've also recently mentioned that this simple concept may now also be a tremendous investment (for profit) opportunity. Two for the price of one. And that investment potential in no way detracts from the insurance aspect of physical in hand. What more could you ask? I know you are promoting physical possession (buying) and I've not a bad word to say for the idea, but I'll still opine that such does not necessarily prohibit, negate or exclude paper investments. They are not mutually exclusive. "Ebony and ivory together in harmony on my keyboard."

I got the impression from your words that you think "freegold" is gold that does not trade at all in any form except paper markets at all. Is this supposition correct? I'm not against the concept of freegold, I just do not quite understand it (so how can I be opposed?). I'm always leary of a concept that can not be explained in reasonable, understandable to the layman, terms. A concept is a concept...but what exactly is simple terms, please. Maybe I'm just a bear of little brain?

R PowellGoldquest#13860112/1/05; 17:28:31

Yes sir, Scruffy it was, thanks! You out there somewhere Scruffy?

Mr GreshamThanks, Randy!#13860212/1/05; 17:51:00

for getting me activated again. been a rough couple years, with some bright spots (i'm in a latin american country awaiting a beautiful amiga! she's always late, so i think i can get this posted) and it's great to have our investments starting to come through for us.

I hope all are well, and enjoying the good company here, the wisdom we've all shared, and the pay-offs we've awaited and deserved for so long. Maybe the party has just begun...

David LinkleyA note thanks#13860312/1/05; 18:10:33

I'd like to thank all posters and wish you a healthy and productive 06'. TownCrier, I appreciate your views and postings greatly. Don't let MK's whisperings keep you from enlightening me.
TownCrierRich, on the disaster of ownership (??)#13860412/1/05; 18:16:57

"I find the idea of so much of this country's pension funds (managed portfolios) in long only accounts as a disaster waiting to (re)happen."

Your statement there has inspired a thought, or more correctly has begged a question.

When a family actually owns ("long only accounts") their land, their business, the clothes on their back, and the roof over their heads, is this truly a disaster waiting to happen?

What are we to make of your notion, what are the implications? (A rhetorical question, I surely know.)

On the other items you raise, I can envision a limited role for the continued existence "paper" gold contracts to facilitate market participants commitments, but I would hesitate to see them perform in their current capacity as a price discovery mechanism.

In addition to or beyond what I have previous said on the subject, I am at a loss to find any means to more successfully convey to you a better sense of what is entailed by a physical price-liberalized "freegold" market. The best parallel is to think in terms of the world's market for highly-prized ancient artifacts and artwork. Beyond that effort, I've nothing simpler to reduce it to, and I willingly hand the baton to someone more skilled than I in the communicative arts.


R PowellAnother gold article......#13860512/1/05; 18:36:36

Some are noticing.
HOOSIER GOLDBUGFINAL SCORE!!!!#13860612/1/05; 18:40:46

This evening the little lady forced me to vent my pent up anxiety, disgust,anger, energy, etc. about the BLANCHARD/BARRICK settlement in the form of helping her clean out the storage room in our basement. And low and behold, what was found underneath that two tons of accumulated garbage, trash, debris, etc was the anouncement/report dated in 2002 that Mr. Doyle and Blanchard sent me about undeniable evidence eliciting their pending lawsuit alledging that BARRICK and their assigns had unlawfully earned $2,000,000,000 by manipulatng the GOLD MARKET! After all the litigation three years later, I want everyone to know the final score is: GOLD CARTEL: $2,000,000.000. MR. Doyle and the rest of the PLAINTIFFS: ????/UNKNOWN. GOLDBUGS: $0.00. But since I am the biggest dumb--- in the world, I will not know any better when it is reported in the business section of all major media outlets that the game was enjoyed by all in attendance/participation.
R PowellTownie#13860712/1/05; 18:42:48

Your statement again implies that that dummy rich just "doesn't get it" Can we get a simple definition here!!
Let me simplify it into a yes or no basis...

By the term "freegold" do you mean gold which trades only in a physical market.
Yes...or ..No?

R PowellPensions, retirement investments, etc.#13860812/1/05; 18:53:55

It has been suggested that none would be at risk if they were....

"When a family actually owns ("long only accounts") their land, their business, the clothes on their back, and the roof over their heads, is this truly a disaster waiting to happen?"

Personal property is almost always a good investment but I wonder if the country's retirement needs can be fulfilled entirely on such without any paper (disasters waiting to happen) investments. It works for me, but it might not be too viable for everyone. Also, how do we convert all accounts that now exist into personal, physical in hand property. Does GM substitute clothes, land and roofs for future $$ pension payouts? Hey, why not? Maybe all the social security monies that have been collected over the past 80 or more years should have been immediately spent on real estate, with every retiree alloted a chunk of land upon reaching retirement age.

Cavan ManR powell#13860912/1/05; 18:53:57

The old timers here know that POG should be in four figures as a function of supply/demad sans CB participation in the allegedly free market. However, (comma) this poor old Cavan Man posits that with SO MUCH liquidity chasing a home and with the average investor being quite COMFORTABLE with the risk associated with the goal of capital appreciation, there (the positing begins) will doubtless be a large amount of hot and dumb money flowing into our laps. Prepare for volatility; sell some right and keep powder try for longer haul.
Toolie@R Powell#13861012/1/05; 18:54:53

Why would anyone (or CB for that matter) whose wealth was measured by amount of gold that they own, want to see the value of that gold diminished?

I'm likely gettin’ in over my head here, goin where TC fears (or knows better than) to tread.

Cavan ManR Powell#13861112/1/05; 18:55:12

That's the only wisdom I have for you tonight young man.
FlatlinerFrom FOA about freegold#13861212/1/05; 18:58:08

Digging through the hall of fame, I came across this little snippet from FOA about freegold. Out of all the thousands of words that I've read here (goldtrails and whatnot) this really sums up the freegold concept.

"Their policy of marking gold reserves to market (on a quarterly basis) and eventually establishing a "true physical" marketplace offers every enticement to get the dollar (and Euro) price of gold higher. Because this process creates a unique reserve benefit, not used in the old gold standard, they will never officially back the Euro with gold. Rather, allow a new "free market" in physical gold (not paper) to supplement their currency operations. The efficiency of modern trade requires a digital currency. That need alone will always support the use of a currency. If gold can trade beside paper money, neither will drive the other out of circulation (as old money gold coins did to paper gold money) as long as they can each seek their own values. ( a very interesting concept??"

I too, find this concept interesting.

TownCrierRich, the issue boils down to what mechanism is used for price discovery#13861312/1/05; 19:00:13

At the risk of tedium, I'll gently suggest again that the best parallel is to try to think in terms of the world's market (especially with respect to price discovery) for highly-prized artwork such as the Mona Lisa.


GalearisANNOUNCEMENT: the run on gold and silver on the COMEX has begun!#13861412/1/05; 19:13:10

Remember that 35 M.oz of Ag was stopped for delivery September thru October and even into November? With the 24 M.oz stopped in the first two days this delivery month,,,,I sincerely doubt whether there will be much registered silver left by months end.

I remember bringing this first to the forum's notice in September. I do so again. You heard it first on USAGOLD!

We are VERY likely watching the collapse of the COMEX futures market. The great run has likely begun!

Enjoy the ride! Let the comedy begin!

Oh,,,and if you want to see how gold is included in the announcement,,,please use the url.

And the VERY best regards to you all!



LimitUpGandalf the White#13861512/1/05; 19:22:02

The answer to your question: SOON!.......Don't you just love it when the stock market goes up big time. Nothing more than a direct reflection of big time inflation!
R PowellToolie..#13861612/1/05; 19:35:57

Your words...

"Why would anyone (or CB for that matter) whose wealth was measured by amount of gold that they own, want to see the value of that gold diminished?"

I don't image they would.
But I'm totally confused. What did I say that gave you the impression that I would think such???

Flatliner@ run on gold and silver on the COMEX has begun#13861712/1/05; 20:05:16


I remember seeing a post from you before. Back then, I also followed the link. The problem is that I have never been taught how to read the charts. Could you please take the time to educate me what it is that I'm looking at? Also, is there a public source with records of previous posts?

I would guess that the ‘issues’ are organizations that have committed to sell. ‘Stoppers’ would be people that have asked to take delivery. Now, please tell me, what do all the numbers mean?

ToolieRich,#13861812/1/05; 20:08:19

Under a freegold regime (once the dollar is dethroned); gold becomes the global premier reserve asset. It holds great sway over the amount of currency that can be issued without price inflation. As each country maintains a freecurrency and freegold market, the amount of currency that is issued is restrained by gold reserves.

Your words to TC: "I got the impression from your words that you think "freegold" is gold that does not trade at all in any form except paper markets at all."

I had suspected that this was what you were missing in the freegold concept. In a freegold regime there is no advantage for a CB to short gold. Since there is no advantage, it will not happen. Perhaps there is a paper market, perhaps not. If there were, I would expect it to be very small. Who wants to devalue their assets?

ToolieRich,#13861912/1/05; 20:25:33

Where I am with you 100%

I've always thought that if a person really understands something, the he ought to be able to explain it to a complete idiot in a couple of sentences. The fact that I can't explain it under those terms to my "idiot self" is frustrating. I've not given up, yet.

Smeagol@ Ssir Flatliner - archives#13862012/1/05; 20:33:58

You can look up/search/hunt for posts by date in the Forum Archives via the link just below the market price box at the top of the page.


FlatlinerClarification#13862112/1/05; 20:41:39

Words are mysterious. This: "Also, is there a public source with records of previous posts?" should have been "Also, is there a place where I can find more information about your posts regarding this COMEX delivery topic that you talk about? Specifically, I would like to see how you see the COMEX run." Thanks.
Galearis@ Flatliner re COMEX METAL run#13862212/1/05; 20:47:53

The numbers are significant once context is understood. First understand that on average only 1 to 2 million ounces of silver are stopped for delivery in an average delivery month for silver. The seller (owner) is the issuer,,,and the stopper is the buyer. A contract of silver is 5000 ounces. What is significant is that in the first two days some 20 M.oz changed ownership. That's ten fold more for the first delivery day!

That's basically all one has to know. Now one watches to see if it leaves the vaults (explosive to the market – and will certainly shut down the silver futures market – by the SEC who will deem the situation dangerously unstable.), or the metal will stay in registered to await sale at much higher prices – or be transferred to the eligible,,,(ostensibly not for sale at present) category.. Keep in mind that these are the last remaining visible stockpiles of silver left on the planet.

But there are,,,,'still,,,,, 21 M.oz O.I. (open interest) that could be stopped for delivery in December. Most will roll their contracts to a later month or cash out. But given the early days of this delivery month, there is real danger of default if stoppers insist on delivery without the metal available to back the sales…That is what happens when one sells naked short and gets caught out.

It is late here and hopefully this has shed some light on your questions. Perhaps someone else can elaborate more.

Once again I am very mystified as to why it appears like only myself, Rhody (Midas poster) and more belatedly, Nick Laird think that these delivery events are very significant. The world is smaller than I thought (smile)

Nobody seems to be watching is what I believe is the reason!
Bed time.



24WortelHoosier Goldbug#13862312/1/05; 20:48:19

Is Hoosier Goldbug Steve Puetz?
David LinkleyPerplexed#13862412/1/05; 21:15:27

Let me see, inflation accelerating, gold moving up strongly against all currencies, central banks continue to sell and lease gold. Whats wrong with this picture. Central banks are supposed to guard against inflation and protect our currencies - right? You don't suppose the people who really run the economic system would stockpile gold while letting inflation run and then sell it back to us at obscene prices would they? Naw, I was just wondering.
Ten BearsLiberating Sovereign Credit for Domestic Development Part II#13862512/1/05; 21:23:28

China incurred an overall trade deficit of $500 million in 2003, the entire US trade deficit with China was transferred to other economies outside China, mostly in developing economies

The relatively low growth rate of the matured economies, such as the US, EU and Japan, cannot sustain the high growth rate of Chinese export trade. Also, all three of these countries are actively engaged in using low-wage manufacturing in China for world-wide re-export, distorting Chinese export data.

China has the option of making the yuan an alternative reserve currency in world trade by simply denominating all Chinese export in yuan.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which import sizable amount of Chinese goods, would accept yuan for payment for their oil, so will Russia.

China is on the way to becoming a world economic giant but it has yet to assert its rightful financial power because of dollar hegemony.

The IMF, controlled by the US, aims at dismantling these traditional Asian financial systems and forcing Asians to replace them with a structurally alien global system, characterized by open markets for products and services and crucially, for financial products and services.

An average worker in Asia would have to work days making hundreds of pairs of shoes at low wages to earn enough to buy one McDonald's hamburger meal for his family

Say's Law states that supply creates its own demand, but only under full employment, a pre-condition supply-siders conveniently ignore.

Furthermore, the trade surpluses are achieved not by an advantage in the terms of trade, but by sheer self-denial of basic domestic needs and critical imports necessary for domestic development

export under dollar hegemony requires keeping wages low, a prerequisite that condemns an economy to perpetual underdevelopment

Globalization is not a new trend. It is the natural policy for all empire building.

This financial hegemony is now centered on New York with the dollar as the base currency. When the Asian tigers export to the United States, all they get in return are US Treasury bills and corporate bonds, not direct investment in Asia. Asian labor in fact is working at low wages mainly to finance the expansion of the dollar economy.

John A Hobson identified the surplus of capital in the core economies and the need for its export to the impoverished parts of the world as the material basis of imperialism

The fundamental shift from the labor value theory to the marginal utility theory was a circular self-validation of the artificial characteristics of an artificial construct based on the sanctity of capital,

The corporation, first used to facilitate the private ownership of railroads, became the organization of choice for large industries and commerce, issuing stocks and bonds to finance its undertakings that fell beyond the normal financial resources of individual entrepreneurs.This process increased the power of banks and financial institutions and brought forth finance capitalism. Cartels and trusts emerged, using vertical and horizontal integration to eliminate competition and manipulate markets and prices for entire sectors of the economy.

A picture from life's other side: an interesting read from Henry C. K. Liu

TheJuniorMinerRichard P#13862612/1/05; 21:38:28


I appreciate your postings as very few have the hubris to question the established opinion. I sometimes wonder about the concept of free gold as the last time I purchased the yellow metal from our esteemed host I paid $480 an oz which is a long way from free.

I do understand the idea of a store of wealth but every investment I make is to try to further my advantage vs the almighty $.

It has been a pleasure to read your posts over the last few years and it is obvious you have more stamina for taking flack than I do from many that disagree with your opinion.

I enjoy your remarks about copper and silver immensely as I remember discussing these two metals with you several times in the last few years.

Bad money always drives out good and I suspect that a few years from now we won't even see a pre 1982 penny in circulation. I'm doing my part.

The Comex is struggling to keep copper in inventory and a Chinese trader seems to have fallen prey to selling more than he can provide. I have stated before and still believe that copper will tell us what will really happen when more of a commodity is sold that is possible to deliver.

I am still very interested in silver and believe that this is the best opportunity a small investor has to increase his advantage to the US $

Can't imagine pouring cement outside right now as I live in Indiana and it sure is cold outside.

One of these days soon I look forward to a discussion with you on silver.


HOOSIER GOLDBUGSTEVE PUETZ-NOT#13862712/1/05; 22:49:25

From Indiana, but SOUTHERN INDIANA, not NORTHERN INDIANA/LAFAYETTE! Whatever happened to Steve! Does he still write his newsletter???
Gandalf the WhiteThank you for the KIND OFFER, Sir Caradoc, BUT ----#13862812/1/05; 23:27:44

As Sir Smeagol might say ---
"Isa youse tryin ta tricks da WIZ ?"
IF, I were to want a claim next to yours, IT would be UPSTREAM from yours, NOT downstream.
AND, I know that you know why ! <;-)
A little work on the claim above your claim, --- on that BEDROCK would make ME rich instead of you !
Winter floods will prove me right.

Goldiloxperplexed?#13862912/1/05; 23:36:52

@ David,

Me, too.

I've suggested more than once that the CBs who sell gold are more often than not selling it to private insiders rather than public markets, but it gets pooh-poohed a lot here.

I've always wondered why these huge lot sales never show up on the Exchange inventories, either as incoming or outgoing, if they're really "public sales".

Gold may very likely pull another 1980 end run, and go much higher, but at some point, there will be some major sellers, and I have an idea that they will come from large private accumulations.

Caradoc@Gandalf#13863012/2/05; 00:33:44

No trickery intended, O noble wizard, and a small grimace that you would think such thoughts. The two claims upstream from the bedrock won't be worked at all apart from a little panning/sniping/sluicing. I bought them mostly as a speculation based on the possibility of acquiring full title if/when the moritorium is lifted and claim owners can once again buy the underlying real estate. In the meanwhile, I'm too lazy to disturb all those tens of feet of "overburden" by looking for streaks of paydirt and it would be a shame to spoil the natural beauty of the area. (See photo at link above.) You may think of me as a one-man nature conservancy if you wish. Or as one whose enlightened self interest hints that -- if I'm ever lucky enough to take title -- it'll be worth more to me and others if it's still pretty.

Speaking of pretty, another waterfall photo:



specie-manGoldilox perplexed#13863112/2/05; 00:36:51

>>> I've always wondered why these huge lot sales never show up on the Exchange inventories, either as incoming or outgoing, if they're really "public sales". <<<

Isn't most Central Bank (CB) gold in the form of 400-ounce bars ? Gold futures contracts are for 100 ounces. So you're probably not going to see CB gold show up on Comex. So where does it go ? I think it is mostly behind-the-scenes balancing (settling) of accounts and trade flows between nations and large banks.

If you want to find out who has been conducting "public sales", buy some bars on Comex and take delivery - then check the manufacturers of the bars.

I'm not exactly wealthy. But my wife has a pretty nice IRA going. Back in early 2003 we decided to put all her IRA funds (the only funds we had) into metals. We set up an account with a trust company to hold the bars in their secure depository in Delaware (you have to have a trust company hold the metals for you as per IRA rules - and yes, there are advantages and disadvantages to that).

Anyway, we bought contracts on Comex and took delivery in March, 2003. One gold (100 oz), one silver (5,000 oz), and two palladium (100 oz each). She is probably the only person around with palladium in an IRA !

I've never seen the bars in person. But we have photos and the serial numbers. I think the manufacturers of the bars says a lot. The gold bar (100 oz) is from the Royal Canadian Mint (remember a couple years ago when Canada sold off most of their gold ?) The silver bars (five 1,000 oz bars) are from Johnson Matthey London. And the two 100-oz palladium bars are marked "Made in USSR".

Has anyone here taken delivery of any Comex bars recently ?

UsulX-Box#13863212/2/05; 01:18:19

I heard that the much-hyped X-Box is like GOLD DUST!

The use of the expression shows yet again that gold is in the psyche.

Here then are some attestations to the value of gold dust:

Armed Robbers Steal Teen's X-Box
Shoppers shoved, trampled, in X-Box sale snafu
Fans excited about launch of X-Box
X-BOX Mania
X-Box Craze
Gamers Camp Out For X-Box
Reported missing was $100 in cash, two gold rings, a bracelet, gold necklace with a gold cross, an X-Box game...

Meanwhile, Spot gold on Friday traded to a 22-and-a-half year high of $505.75 a troy ounce on continued strong fund buying of the metal, South Africa's rand scaled an 8-week peak against the dollar on Friday, buoyed by the rocketing price for gold and other commodities, and the Central Bank of Russia reported Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves stood at $167.2 billion on November 25, up $3.9 billion, or 2.4 percent, from $163.3 billion a week earlier.

GoldiloxGold IRA#13863312/2/05; 06:18:52


While you certainly have my admiration for your metal IRA, it is not exactly the level of purchasing I was referencing.

More the tonnes variety! We hear announcements like "Portugal sold 20 tonnes," but no one can trace a buyer of 20 tonnes, an amount that would stick out like a sore thumb - even in a Nation's budget.

RowanCould Russia begin a bullion coin series?#13863412/2/05; 06:20:17

This is just speculation so I do not want this read as fact but I take the possibility seriously enough to write it here.
Could Russia begin a bullion coin series? Let me explain me conjecture. There has been a recent anouncement that Russia's central bank was increasing it's gold reserves as well as an increased interest in mining.
This may be an attempt to further inrease the value of a bullion coin series. Unlike the last two times that gold was this high (and higher), the NATO nations would not embargo a Rusian bullion coin. And unlike in the eightees, China's general population is now a player in gold consumption and I ndia has far more purchasing leverage hence making Russia able to glut supply without nearly as much peril of a bullion coin's price decreasing in value.

Sources: The facts supporting my hypthesis are from articles that I have read mostly on this website. Please see the Daily Market Report for author credit. The subject of the post is mine.

Goldilox?News, Censored?#13863512/2/05; 06:50:33


Great coverage in the Ithaca Times today about the 10-biggest news stories of the year that were pretty much buried by mainstream media, which as we have pointed out many times have leashes pulled by corporations that are trying to maintain an economic paradigm and a worldview that is not consistent with available resources.

Some of the stories:

Bush Administration moves to end "open government."
US media fails to cover Iraq War details such as: Close to 100,000 have died in Iraq fighting, mostly non-combatants
Distorted election coverage
Surveillance society is moving full steam ahead.
US use of the SE Asia tsunami for military positioning
Sitting on the Iraq oil-for-food scandal.
Real journalists getting killed
Iran's oil bourse (see previous story) threatens US hegemony in Middle East
National Coal's strip mining plans near Knoxville

While we agree with the selections, there are plenty more. Coverage of global warming has been less than stunning. Manipulation of financial markets is a non-story (I don't know how many times I've heard the "naked short selling" story is about to pop, yet somehow it doesn't. Then there's the SEC's operations. How long before Ken Lay's trial? And a bunch of others, but at least Project Censored is tracking it. And we do our little bit when we can, focusing on FTM (Follow the money).


I would add "XXX buys 20 tonnes of Portugal gold" to this list.

And "Bush hypes $7B for Tamiflu to Congress while Rumsfeld counts his Gilead stock certificates"

or "Gold price-fixing plaintiffs buy their way out of public court disclosure"

Nope, we get FOX, Nancy Grace and their ilk spending months all upset about some teenage party girl getting lost in Aruba, to demonstrate ad nauseum that one "connected" upper crust teenager is worth more airtime than hundreds of thousands of serfs who are, after all, just "collateral damage".

One trip to your local "county detox" on any given day, or a Viet-Nam / Iraq VET "Stand Down" rally will vividly demonstrate the forgotten casualties of the corporate resource wars. If you've never been to either one, I highly recommend it - if you have the stomach for cold reality.

GoldiloxSource link#13863612/2/05; 06:51:55

Goldilox'Tis the season to buy some bling#13863712/2/05; 07:04:07

NEW YORK ( - Fine jewelry may shape up to be one of the best bargains of the holiday season as retailers offer deep discounts amid soaring precious metal prices.

The 2005 holiday shopping season has been marked by price cuts across all sectors as nervous retailers have slashed costs to lure shoppers hunting for sweet deals. (Full story.)

Jewelry is always an important holiday category, according to George Whalin, chief executive of San Marcos, Calif.-based Retail Management Consultants.

"The holiday season is a very good time to buy jewelry because of the deals. You have to be knowledgeable about what you want, but there are bargains to be had for consumers," he said.


I bet Marie will have just the thing for your holiday "bling".

Galearis@ specie-man re delivery#13863812/2/05; 07:51:03

Look on the LBMA web site for a list of "good bar" delivery gold and silver from refineries. Not a lot qualify.

Also central bank gold is re-refined at a "good bar" refinery before being delivered. It is all then "good bar" quality (in theory).

That does not mean that all metal in COMEX is of "good bar"
quality - as some private storage facility is also available.



OvSTo put things in perspective....#13863912/2/05; 08:08:32

In 1930 the US $1.00 was
equivalent to approximately
3.06 Swiss Gold Francs.

One Swiss Gold Frank equals
0.29032258 grammes of fine

On we march, up and away. OvS

GoldiloxTHE DOLLAR REPATRIATION CONJOB#13864012/2/05; 08:08:39


The Amendment for Jobs Creation Act is a classic misnomer, a fraud, nothing but a sweet corporate welfare conjob. The only job in this scheme is "conjob" for sure. Few if any new jobs were created, as over $200 billion have been repatriated to date. Planned to generate new jobs and create new business, the legislation has instead been a bonanza for big corporations to bring home vast sums of money. The record shows the bulk of foreign funds having been devoted to stock buybacks, sure to reinforce executive stock options. The bill is also known as the Homeland Investment Act, a more appropriate name, since homebound funds have been invested for sure, just not for business purposes. They have largely gone toward financial securities in one form or another. . .

In early November, Intel stunned the markets with an announced $25 billion repurchase program in planned stock buybacks and a 25% dividend lift. Target also cited plans to buy back $2 billion. In October, Honeywell ($3 billion), DuPont ($5 billion), and Burlington Resources ($1 billion) all announced plans to buy back stock. In the first week of November, Time Warner said it would more than double the size of its stock buyback program to $12.5 billion from the $5 billion figure previously announced. Retailer Bed Bath & Beyond and home builder Pulte Homes have also joined the parade. Time Warner agreed to double its stock buyback program at a time when it faced pressure from financier Carl Icahn to increase the value of the stock.

Negative ramifications over the long haul are painfully clear, but hardly recognized. Steven Clark, an assistant professor at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte, says that companies may opt to buy back stock rather than construct more industrial plants, make acquisitions or spend on Research & Development because of concerns about chances of a slowing economy. "It is arguably a less risky use of cash," Clark said.

The open door for nearly tax-free return of big money to the USA fatherland ends Dec 31st. Yet another positive effect for the USDollar is soon to end. When the US Federal Reserve stops its measured rate hikes, a big incentive to own USDollars will also end. If gold has indeed decoupled from the USDollar, but that USDollar does turn down, then some serious upward momentum for gold could be upon us to behold.


Looking for Mr. Goodbar? Even at $525/oz, it may be your best holiday present ever!

OvSGoldilox consider the following re Portugal gold...#13864112/2/05; 08:22:26

The BIS is authorized to:

1. Accept deposits in gold
and currencies from CB's.
2. Buy and sell gold and
3. Buy and sell many quickly
marketable securities.
4. Place deposits with CB's,
and make advances to them.
5. Deal with international
6. Deal with commercial banks.

The BIS is instrumental in
carrying many gold transactions
for all those different custom-
ers including
of gold, "in and between the
various gold markets".

That should give answer to your
perplexion. Have a good day. OvS

PS: The BIS is not allowed to
deal with individuals nor

GalearisA totally corrupt market system: the naked shorting scandal#13864212/2/05; 08:39:47

An interesting listen. I did not find it that frightening because I don't chase derivatives, any derivatives. But if you like shares,,,,this may scare you.

People get
locked in to their own behaviors for one reason or another,,,and I feel that
with all the damage going on around markets,,,that this unrestrained naked
shorting is just another major part of the problem. If the public is
thinking at all about this, they would dump their shares en masse and that
would take down the whole system..Instant depression time. That it hasn't
happened is not very amazing when one understands the power behind each
individual's capacity for denial.
Best regards,


Regards to scruffy,,,we share some acquaintants in the north.

mikal@OvS#13864312/2/05; 10:39:25

Re: BIS and "PS: The BIS is not allowed to deal with individuals nor governments." Fascinating, isn't it? You'd almost think they don't have to(deal with us)because they own us.
Well I for one don't need them.

Flatliner@the naked shorting scandal#13864412/2/05; 10:45:52

Wow. If you're not familiar with this issue, you should schedule the 40 minutes needed to get through it.

My take away, take delivery of every share that you buy but remember that any share that you buy has this hidden risk.

Also, when people organize to create the future banking system, the voting shares issued will be known and never split. Every share will need to be tracked and sold over the counter rather then through a brokerage firm.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Since 1973. Proven Reliability, Longevity, Quality and Professionalism ---- Invest with Confidence!!#13864512/2/05; 12:07:46

Mr GreshamAnd just when I thought of asking,#13864612/2/05; 13:06:35

of the whereabouts and well-being of all my friends, there is Sir LimitUp riding to castle on his charger...
TownCrierG7 tackles free trade, says goodbye Mr Greenspan#13864712/2/05; 13:20:30

LONDON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Britain sought support for a global free trade deal when top finance ministers met on Friday to discuss economic policy and bid farewell to Alan Greenspan, who is retiring after 18 years as U.S. central bank chief.

Both London and Washington hope the two-day London meeting of the Group of Seven club will inject fresh life into faltering talks on trade liberalisation...

Britain's Gordon Brown, who chairs the G7 this year, ...invited Brazil, India, China, South Africa and Russia to some of the weekend talks in London.

Friday night's G7 dinner was set to focus on the risks of the economy coming unstuck because of imbalances such as excess liquidity, the United States living on credit, European inertia and China keeping its currency too low.

^---(from url)----^

Looking at that short list of "special invitees", it's remarkable that it consists largely of those select countries who have made the most noise lately about gold.


captainDesperate People do Desparate Things#13864812/2/05; 13:49:37

A couple years ago I asked in this forum, which is stronger, the US $ or the US Military. Another poster wrote me privately asking me not to get too far ahead with my questions.....It seems the game has gone to a new level now. My question is: Is the $ faction, now, painted into a corner sufficiently to take military action to a new level as well?........I ask this with humility knowing there is much I do not know.....Thank you!
R PowellJuniorMiner#13864912/2/05; 14:55:27

Just read yesterday's #138626. Thank you, it made my day.
happy weekend to all...!

TownCrierIMF Completes Review of SDR Valuation#13865012/2/05; 15:47:41

IMF Press Release No. 05/265
December 2, 2005

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced today the completion of the regular five-yearly review of the method of valuation of the Special Drawing Right (SDR) and the determination of the SDRinterest rate.

...With effect from January1,2006, the IMF has determined that the four currencies that meet both selection criteria for inclusion in the SDRvaluation basket will be assigned the following weights based on their roles in international trade and finance: U.S. dollar (44percent), euro (34percent), Japanese yen (11 percent), and pound sterling (11percent).

[A press release providing the final currency amounts in the new SDRvaluation basket to take effect on January1,2006 will be issued by the IMF on December30,2005.]

^---(from url)---^

Over the previous 5-year period the dollar's weight was 45%, the euro had been only 29%, the yen was 15%, and the pound has held its ground at 11%.


Flatliner@Yesterday's ANNOUNCEMENT: the run on gold and silver on the COMEX has begun!#13865112/2/05; 16:08:42

Galearis, Today, when I follow your link (Included here) I see that there are anther 236 issues for silver for a total of 5,528 or 27.64 M. oz. I believe the total yesterday was around 21 M. oz.

I do appreciate the volume. If it is true that you say that on average, only a couple million ounces change hands, then it looks like December is a merry Christmas month for those that can get their hands on it.

The one thing that I'm still not able to determine is the size of the pie. Can you help me there?

It is also interesting that you say "Keep in mind that these are the last remaining visible stockpiles of silver left on the planet." What? ;) Someone better hurry up and create a silver ETF! Quick. If this is really all that we have ‘left’ we'd better convert it into something fiat! What will people do if there is no visible silver left to invest in?

TownCrierPunters take a shine to gold#13865212/2/05; 16:09:46,5936,17441869%255E462,00.html

03dec05 -- Speculators are betting that, just as it was in 1971, gold is cheap. And that holds even with Thursday's 22-year high close in New York at $502.50 an ounce.

Recall the situation in 1971. Gold had been pegged in America at $20.67/oz from the 1830s. The peg was raised in 1934 to $35/oz. You knew where you stood.

It was only in 1971, when the Nixon administration de-pegged the price, that things started to change. The average price that year was $41.17/oz. That is $160.50 in today's folding stuff, adjusted for inflation.

By 1980 the yellow metal was fetching $850/oz. The equivalent in 2005 dollars is around $1770. Instead, in 1980 dollar terms, gold is $241/oz...

Clearly, the hedge funds and other speculators think the present situation is nowhere near the top of the market - and with inflation waiting offstage for its big entrance, gold will once again become the safe haven.

In other words, trusting gold is no longer for the cranks and doom-mongers.

Two oil price shocks and associated rampant inflation between 1971 and 1980 resulted in gold's value increasing by 2023% in nominal terms. No one apart from the most bullish gold bug is predicting - yet - that gold is on its way to $1770/oz, but the trend is towards something higher...

This week the Beijing-based People's Daily reported that Asian central banks are expected to further increase their gold reserves. Russia, Argentina and South Africa have also adopted the same policy.

The newspaper, seen as a mouthpiece for the Chinese Government, makes an argument difficult to refute. Asian central banks have little choice.

They hold $US2.6 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, much of that in US Treasuries. At some stage - and there are many bears who can't believe that it hasn't happened long before now - the greenback is going to take a bath.

The Asian central banks don't want to be left holding the baby in the form of $2 trillion or more in a falling greenback. Better to convert some of their currency reserves into something tangible, that is limited in supply - and can't suddenly be devalued by a central bank hitting the "start" button on the printing press to spew out more paper currency.

China's official reserves include a gold component of only 1.1 per cent; India holds 3.6 per cent of its official reserves in the form of gold. As the People's Daily points out, Germany, France and Italy still hold gold at about 50 per cent of official reserves.

If that particular newspaper is reporting the intent, you can be sure that China's central bank has already been picking up gold. The Asian central banks like to do things out of the spotlight.

However, any move to buy more gold is going to place greater pressure on physical supply.

One fund manager commented that even a hint of Asian central bank buying at present would set the gold market on fire.

^---(from url)---^

Are you awake and building an understanding?

Choose gold.


TownCrierGLOBAL INVESTING TRENDS: GOLD -- How precious can this metal get?#13865312/2/05; 16:22:05

December 1, 2005 -- ...Now, gold is revisiting ... lofty levels and, in the process, catching a lot of interest from a number of sources, not the least those who are surprised that bullion is rising at the same time as the U.S. dollar is appreciating.

According to hitherto conventional thinking, that shouldn't happen.

Myles Zyblock, chief institutional strategist at RBC Dominion Securities Inc., recently authored an extensive report on gold that suggested, among other things, that "there has been a significant portfolio shift out of financial assets and into tangible assets" and the shift began in 2000, just as the tech bubble was set to explode.

In the intervening period, gold has climbed about 74 per cent while the Dow Jones industrial average has fallen about 1 per cent, a development that he attributes to a rise in investors' risk aversion.

"Gold is now in its fifth year of a secular bull market, and if history acts as a useful guide, we could quite easily see another three to five years of solid performance from gold and gold shares," he said. production in South Africa is projected to be the lowest in 80 years.

The five major gold companies produce about 25 million ounces a year and they are "not nearly replacing that quantity" with new discoveries, said Nick Majendie, senior vice-president of Canaccord Capital Corp.

Clément Gignac, chief economist and strategist at National Bank Financial, believes that bullion will climb to $600 in the next 12 to 15 months. And he cautions that is only an "intermediate target," which he will reassess when the time comes.

If, as he thinks may happen, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries eventually starts worrying about a weakening U.S. dollar and opts to protect its purchasing power by quoting the price of oil in a basket of currencies rather than just the greenback, then bullion could climb even further.

^---(from url)----^

Have you started your diversification program yet? Get in touch with a broker at USAGOLD-Centennial to implement a strategy that's right for you.


BelgianGoldmine shares#13865412/2/05; 16:52:16

How come, that in the recent goldprice rise, the goldmine shares seem to have lost their classic price leverage (4 to 1) against the POG !?
Can't be that the costs of goldmining, including currency appreciation, is the real reason for not having that (anticipative) leverage element anymore.

Have goldmine shares lost their appeal versus the metal ?

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#13865512/2/05; 17:25:13">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

FRIDAY Market Excerpts

December 2 (from Reuters) -- Gold futures in New York settled at a 23-year peak on Friday as inflation worries, upbeat market fundamentals and strong interest in commodities pushed the price further above $500 an ounce, dealers said.

Global buying by investors helped lift the entire precious metals complex higher... "Gold has become very popular. The $500 level is a big signpost," said a New York broker at a futures commission merchant.

"There are a lot of concerns about inflation. There has been some good buying in Japan and there is obviously good buying elsewhere," said one dealer.

COMEX February gold futures rose 70 cents to close at $507, after dealing from $503.80 and $510.80, the highest for benchmark futures since February 1983.

But despite the gains, trading sources said gold prices should be volatile in the near term as they foray into technically overbought terrain. "Gold has performed well this week, certainly, given the market expectation of a correction early in the month," said Paul McLeod, vice president of precious metals at Commerzbank in New York. "On the supply side, everything is very stable, so it is the demand side that is driving things," he said.

Dealers believe gold has plenty of room to rise into next year, however.

A few have called for it to surpass bullion's high above $850, touched in 1980, on strength from a host of economic factors.

Central banks in Russia, Argentina and South Africa are open to boosting their gold reserves, analysts have said, and recent newspaper reports have indicated that Asian countries may soon join them in adding the metal to holdings.

Meanwhile, departing Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan renewed a warning on U.S. budget deficits on Friday, saying that good short-term prospects for the U.S. economy should not distract from huge looming fiscal strains that pose "significant" economic risks.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---

OvSBelgian, re your m.#138654#13865612/2/05; 18:28:46

Derivatives come in handy to
manipulate and take over. The
overlords are having fun. Get
the sheeple confused, outma-
neuver the management and pick
up the pieces for a pittance.
Mergers are getting bigger and
more ruthless 'til there are
only a handful of corporations
held in a tight grip of the one
and only "group".
How does "free gold" fit into
this spiderweb? Cheers. OvS

The Invisible HandWhat a coincidence!#13865712/2/05; 18:38:43

From The Usagold Daily Gold Market Report:
"There are a lot of concerns about inflation. There has been some good buying in Japan and there is obviously good buying elsewhere," said one dealer.

From the link referring to Alan's speech of yesterday
Dec. 2 (Bloomberg)
The speech is one of the final opportunities for Greenspan, 79, chief of the central bank since 1987, to repeat his concern about the budget before he steps down Jan. 31. His nominated successor, former Fed governor Ben Bernanke, told a Senate panel Nov. 15 that he probably won't comment on specific federal budget issues.
Greenspan said the U.S. economy ``has delivered a solid performance thus far in 2005.'' Even after the disruptions from the hurricanes, ``economic activity appears to be expanding at a reasonably good pace as we head into 2006.''

Belgium is going to make all stocks of (publicly traded) corporations nominative. I wonder how the Brussels stock exchange will continue to function.
Effecten aan toonder binnenkort afgeschaft
bron:KFBN - 18/11/2005
auteur:B. Azare
Op 17 november heeft de Kamer van Volksvertegenwoordigers het wetsontwerp houdende afschaffing van de effecten aan toonder goedgekeurd. Dit ontwerp zou nog door de Senaat kunnen worden geëvoceerd. De tekst wijzigt de werking van meer dan 150.000 naamloze vennootschappen, commanditaire vennootschappen op aandelen, beveks,... Vanaf 1 januari 2008 kunnen zij immers geen effecten aan toonder meer uitgeven, die de meest courante vorm van effecten in deze vennootschappen zijn. Zij zullen alleen nog effecten op naam of gedematerialiseerde effecten kunnen uitgeven. Al deze - al dan niet beursgenoteerde - vennootschappen zullen hun statuten moeten aanpassen in overeenstemming met hetgeen de wet voorschrijft.

The Invisible HandFor those who speak Spanish#13865812/2/05; 18:51:30

Suppression des titres au porteur
Communiqué de presse FEB, Febelfin, la Fédération Royale du Notariat belge, Euronext, la CIK et Euroclear : Suppression des titres au porteur - Dématérialisation des titres
La Chambre vote la loi • Une Task Force au service des entreprises et du secteur financier
Bruxelles, le 18 novembre 2005
Le 17 novembre, la Chambre des représentants a adopté le projet de loi portant suppression des titres au porteur. Il pourrait être encore évoqué par le Sénat.

150.000 entreprises concernées
Le texte modifie le fonctionnement de plus de 150.000 sociétés anonymes, sociétés en commandite par actions, sicav… En effet, à partir du 1er janvier 2008, elles ne pourront plus émettre des titres au porteur qui constituent la forme la plus courante de titres dans ces sociétés. Elles ne pourront émettre que des titres nominatifs ou des titres dématérialisés . Ce sont toutes les sociétés de droit belge -cotées ou non- qui devront adapter leurs statuts conformément au prescrit légal.
Le régime général …
Les titres au porteur existants devront être, en principe, convertis en titres dématérialisés ou en titres nominatifs entre le 1er janvier 2008 et le 31 décembre 2013 pour les titres au porteur émis préalablement à la publication de la loi et le 31 décembre 2012 pour les titres au porteur émis postérieurement à la publication de la loi. A l’expiration de chacune des périodes de conversion, les titres dont la conversion n’a pas été demandée seront convertis de plein droit en titres dématérialisés ou en titres nominatifs au choix de la société.
Le régime spécifique …
En outre, la loi impose un régime spécifique pour les titres des sociétés cotées et les bons de caisse. Ainsi, au 1er janvier 2008, les titres au porteur cotés inscrits en compte-titres sont convertis de plein droit en titres dématérialisés. De fait, la loi impose donc un délai pour les sociétés cotées qui devront respecter l’échéance du 31 décembre 2007 pour adapter leurs statuts. De même, au 1er janvier 2008, les bons de caisse, inscrits en compte-titres, sont convertis de plein droit en titres dématérialisés.
Une réponse aux questions : la Task Force Dématérialisation
La mise en œuvre de la réforme aura des conséquences importantes tant pour les entreprises que pour le secteur financier. Celui-ci devra prendre les mesures concrètes pour permettre le fonctionnement des titres dématérialisés.
Qu’est-ce qu’un titre dématérialisé ? Quel est le rôle des teneurs de comptes agréés et des organismes de liquidation ? Quel est l’impact fiscal de la dématérialisation ? Comment adapter les statuts des sociétés aux exigences de la loi ?
C’est pour répondre aux multiples questions des sociétés et du secteur financier que la FEB, Febelfin, la Fédération Royale du Notariat belge, Euronext, la CIK et Euroclear ont mis au point une Task Force «Dématérialisation». Son objectif est de sensibiliser les entreprises et le secteur financier aux divers aspects de la réforme et, le cas échéant ,de coordonner les actions entre toutes les parties concernées afin de dégager les synergies nécessaires à la réussite harmonieuse du projet.

Federal_ReservesGolden 500#13865912/2/05; 19:48:38

Debt growth this past month was unbelievable!

11/30/2005 $8,092,322,205,720.65
10/31/2005 $8,027,123,404,214.36

Massive $68 billion dollar debt piled up in a single month! Annnualized that over 800BILLION!

And today Greenspan issued another deficit warning! It can't go on he said and he intends to deliver another warning to our drunken spenders in congress.

Even worse, this government deficit is piled on top of an trade deficit that is 6% of GDP, last month alone over 65billion a year! Another 800 billion more a year! An unbalanced illogical trading system run amuck in the unwise and to rapid move to corporate globalism.

The final kicker - the US is bogged down long term war in the ME!

The shock is that most folks don't seem concerned at all! These deficits don't matter - the world economic system can handle them.

My friends, these are ideal conditions for GOLD, as risk is piled on risk.

And yes, gold has been rising for many years now with each warning.

HenriOVS - 'tis quite obvious#13866012/2/05; 20:14:14

should those who are a handful show their hand, they shall be rounded up and neutralised whereas the precious provides the avenue by which the next maestro shall stroll...never a player but always there to facilitate the next distraction until all come to the understanding that it is the facilitator that has weight and bearing not that which is facilitated
CamelPocahontas#13866112/2/05; 21:10:11

@ Henri-I don't think that I'm prepared to make an overall assessment of the Native American peoples at this time. The main point I was trying to make was that they followed pretty much the same pattern as the rest of the world,that is ,a state of perpetual warfare, what Hobbes writing in the 1640's called" bellum universalle"

So are you saying that my basic premise is wrong , that the Native Americans lived in peace?The premise may well be wrong, I will have to review accounts of Coronado and Cabaza de Vaca but if my memory is correct they describe a a pretty brutish existence.Other than these early contacts the Native American in history is basically defined by the 500 year resistance to the encroachment of the Christian'so it hard to know what they were like on their own.

Actually I object somewhat to the term Native American.They themselves were immigrants of fairly recent origin. and Indian doesn't seem so complely out of line. Asiatic would be more accurate ,a shamanistic society originating in Siberia dating back 70,000 years . But of foreign origin..If you wished to describe something that is truly native to this country, truly American, it would be the camel

I'm happy with the "Dances with Wolves" portrayal of the Sioux., sort of Taoist Samurai,and the idea of a" Great Spirit" seems to have more in common with a Taoist than a Christian, in keeping with their Asian origins

In many ways this country was a Utopia at that time and many individuals may have attained great spiritual heights, however it is my belief that the actual tribal groups were at war one with another here just as the were in Africa ,Asia, Europe.and the Mideast and that any sort of romanticized idyllic state of nature other than in some localized area for a brief period of time is just wishful thinking.

If I was trapper
I'd give a thousand pelts
To sleep with Pocahontas
And find out how she felt
In the morning , in the field of green
In the homeland, we've never seen

Neil Young

David Linkley@OvS#13866212/2/05; 21:44:33

An observation Jefferson would have made facilitated by dishonest money. For the first time in history we can only guess at who the lords and masters are. A dark and evil shadow is now falling across the once free bastions of the world.
FlatlinerSilver in Latin America#13866312/2/05; 23:00:04

And ( Silver coin in Mexico)

Anyone read these articles from the GATA committee about the Silver Libertad? They seem to be selling the idea of silver bullion to the Latin American governments. I have to commend their actions! It is very bold. I'm sure everyone in the would world want to see this happen. I'm sure everyone here could just imagine what it will do to the silver supply in the world. If it wasn't short already, I wonder what it will be like if these governments adopt it's usage.

I have to wonder about it though. If you walk through the Silver coin in Mexico slide show, they talk about always raising the price so that it always stays above the intrinsic price of the metal. In other words, the trade value for fiat never goes down. I, have to admit, that I believe that this idea is flawed.

Gresham's law states that bad money drives out good money. Let's say that the Hunt brothers come back from the dead and make a run on silver. The price spikes to 200 bucks, their thrown in jail, silver is put back in circulation and the price drops to 10 bucks. By the ideas expressed on the GATA site, the price of an Libertad would be 200+. But, the intrinsic value would be 10 bucks.

The Libertad is now bad money. It's 95% government, rather then intrinsic value. At this point, the government is going to mint as many as they possibly can! Their going to buy silver on the spot market, take it to the mint and print like hotcakes. Why? Because it's 90 percent useless.

No. The only way the Libertad could work and be accepted by the people is if the government accepts a fixed royalty that is reasonable. Say, 5 percent. Then, everyday everyone using the coin can just look at the spot market to see what it's worth.

Treat bullion like bullion and simply educate the people about real money. A libertad priced at 200+ when the spot price of the coin is 10 will not carry much weight outside the trading countries. And, if they're looking to trade for oil, they better make sure they consider world markets when they figure their pricing scheme.

SmeagolSilver Libertad#13866412/2/05; 23:50:42

"The only way the Libertad could work and be accepted by the people is if the government accepts a fixed royalty that is reasonable. Say, 5 percent."

Sss...we thinks the only way it will work is if the Mexican governmentor central bank is not allowed to have ANY influence. Mark the Libertad to market... let it determine the value of the paper fiat. Let the fiat compete with it... we will see, we knows, O yess, which will win in the longesst run.


Belgian@OvS#13866512/3/05; 02:19:51

Underground gold, like any other thing under the ground, is state property.
Today, and certainly in the nearby future, oil and gas will permanently increase in (strategic) ***-importance-*** on a "global" scale...regardless of all the possible alternatives.

From my observations, I conclude (in simple words) that : The (ongoing) gold "-valuation-" shall evolve with decreasing interference/intervention...or...the very fundamental of the global economy (oil/gas) shall be changed.

Freegold is about aboveground goldmetal. All states with underground gold, will continue to manage this wealth in sovereignity (cfr. oil-wealth). This is the main imponderabile for every goldmine sharp contrast with the holder of goldmetal in 100% possession.

Imo, the goldmine-paper (share-prices) loss of (POG)leverage (1 to 4) is a signal. Certainly so, when the present goldprice retraced a 23 years' old $-price level.
As if, FOR THE TIME BEING, the underground gold-reserves are (TEMPORAY) losing their value to be directly expressed in rising goldmine prices. Aboveground goldmetal (METAL) is gaining importance.

A goldprice in progress of retracing its ATH ($850-'80) and goldmine prices NOT anticipating this eventuality, is a "change". A break with the 25 yrs old patterns !
Analog with the "change" in LBMA gold contracts (paper) we see since 1997.

I don't know what will happen with goldmine shares. But goldmine shares have been (subtly) lagging (disconnecting)the POG for more than 25 years already (cfr. Aden sisters'conclusions-evidence).

It all boils down to the Q&A : How "free" was gold-metal-pricing and goldmining. Much more UN-free than the absolute majority ever suspected (percepted)! This is the main cause, why so many cannot imagine what the ongoing freeing of gold means. And more important, WHY freegold is on the agenda.

What if...the ongoing goldprice the expression of the ongoing demise of " -DOLLAR USE- " in some/most of the international financial structures ?
A worlwide reduction in "dollar-use" (USE-!) has the consequence that fysical goldmetal is to be preferred above papergold. Are we in the very early anticipation phase ? Imo, it seems so, when trying to understand what those gold accumulating nations are saying/doing.

Is gold in the process of becoming a "savings wealth" (reserve and not insurance anymore) that the "use" of dollar-reserves are causing problems/imbalances ?

If the present rise in goldprice is nothing more than a (false) compensation for infla...then what is the appropiate goldprice for gold, the commodity...not the wealth reserve ?

NedHope everyone has seem this.....#13866612/3/05; 05:41:26's a BEAUT !!
NedBelgian ....leverage disappearing....#13866712/3/05; 06:33:50

Good morning Belgian,

I have been following a discussion at the neighboring castle regarding the 'funk' that gold stocks find themselves. It is indeed an interesting situation put forth and I would like to comment and ask a question or three.

I pulled up a chart of the HUI over 5 years at:

As you can see from Jan 2001 to Jan 2004 the HUI has risen in a near straight line from 40 to let's say 240 for arithmetic's sake for a six-fold increase. Looking at the POG in the same time interval spot gold approximately doubled from 260 to 420. It's short of doubling but keeping the math easy we can see the leverage of 6:2 or 3:1.

This is definitely in the historical (leverage) range of 2:1 to 5:1 as I saw quoted yesterday.

Looking at the same HUI chart we see the (unhedged) gold stocks in a 2 year 'funk' from Jan 2004 until today, Dec 2005. In the meanwhile spot gold has put on a spendid performance in the same time interval rising from about $420 to $500. The spooky thing to note for gold traders is the triple top of the HUI at 258 ish. This is very clear in the 2 year HUI:

The EXTREMELY spooky situation for gold traders this week was the failure of the HUI to breakout above 258 in the face of spot breaking new ground from 18 year highs (1987) to 22 year highs (1983) EVEN in the face of the psychological clearing of $500 U.S.

What in the green earth could the gold stocks be waiting for? Is gold not going to the moon? Or is it something wrong with the gold stocks as you mention?

The G-E people were 'bandying' these questions around this week and I saw a couple interesting comments.

One fellow said that with the monumental struggle between inflation and deflation at this moment in time, it is uncertain if gold is to top or break. Another is the USDX which has been rising all year after the near death of 80.4/80.6 during the Christmas week a year ago. The third issue is the continuation of raising S.T. I.R. by the FED.

Put in a nutshell if I.R. hikes are to cease, dollar support is no more, dollar collapses. With smaller dollar comes bigger 'bills' comes inflation. Gold wins on all counts.

Then I look at a 1983 (that 22 year high) London PM fix chart and I see gold bouncing off of $510 a bunch of times so I see once that is broken it is "open air" until $700.

So in summary, and I read this theory a dozen times, the gold stocks had $500 gold in their sights and was priced in a long, long time ago. In hindsight, only 5 or so years ago, it would have been fair to say that at DX 120 and gold $250 a vision of USDX 90 and gold $500 was possible.

So I conclude that everything that has happened has been reasonable, predictable and accurate. I say that with an a great degree of latitude. (I still think they're all crooks !!)

So what happens going forward?

Well as our good friend Robert Prector says " the end, gold will win". ("Conquer the Crash") I've got to wonder though if we get a serious bout of deflation before the fiat system(s) blow up and the REAL, REAL steal for gold is down the road or whether we are at the inflation/hyperflation blowoff top right now. I believe this is the HUI's confusion right now, which way it will tip.

The good news is we are about to find out very SOON ! There isn't a analyst alive on this planet that hasn't mentioned the apex of trouble is near. We approach the climax of several perils, some include:

- confirmation of peak oil
- baby boomer demoraphics
- foreign policy a dozen (the Iran duplex comes to mind....NUCS & OIL Bourse)
- "debtberg" implosion
- etc., etc

I personally think 1Q06 should cement the deal and we shall find out if the gold stocks are toast !!

With the confirmation of toasty gold stocks or not comes the answer to your underground/above ground thesis.

We await with great eagerness.

Have a golden weekend Sir !

mikal@Smeagol#13866812/3/05; 08:10:55

Re: "we will see, yess we knowss, which will win in the longest run." Marking silver to market would be a fine idea, but then it's not globally available in sufficient quantity to strategic military and monopolistic enterprises that depend on it for their lifeblood. Isn't this the fear of the Silver User's Association?
"In the longest run" will be along time before citizens in Mexico and everywhere have a voice that is heard by the global banking consortium, fraternity, syndicate et al.
Some silver market developments Galearis and others are updating blend right in with this scenario IMO.
If so much precious little remaining silver is anticipated to be removed from "the last remaining stockpiles" through open interest Comex deliveries can you tell me how much world inventory has not been certified or audited?
And, wouldn't someone have already "negotiated" or otherwise "persuaded", legally or illegally, ethically or not, a lid be installed on psychologically potent silver deliveries leaving the warehouses to prevent a run on industrial and strategic stockpiles? Or is this their intent, to create a run up in price and then a panic selloff by releasing hidden hoards?
No, I think it more likely the PTB surely have an interest in seeing the price of silver prevented from impacting a growing number of secret, defense and industrial applications and emerging countries.
That is, not TOO high a 'price'.
But since real silver content in most applications is so small, relative to final product, it is common knowledge price of Ag could triple or quadruple (or more) from the present dark hidden era via naked shorting, forward sales, leasing etc. without substantial and with essentially negligible end-product price and sales impact/effect.
If so, TPTB priority would then be to continue to be SUA's mandate(and that of the BIS, IMF, CFR, G10, LBMA, World Bank?) to prolong the status quo with this strategic commodity, even if it means an Act of Decree by Comex or other official or quasigovernmental agencies.

Druid@Ned#13866912/3/05; 09:15:01

Druid: Interesting list. Some primary items that I would add that not to many commentaries seem to include or understand are:

A.) Certain network of Central Banks hauling in gold bullion to balance out and reclassify their existing "money/dollar/bond" portfolios.
B.) Item A above has nothing to do with ancient ratios concerning the leverage of stock prices to gold bullion.
C.) If you choose to use a miss-priced index as function of an antiquated ratio that doesn't remotely factor in the existing managed bullion price as it relates to what the current unadjusted fiction of a price signal represents, then proceed with extra caution.
D.) It's all about the future and not the past.
E.) Currencies and bullion will be able to coexist in our brave new world; however, there might be a reconfiguration of the upper crust.
F.) New marketing materials will need to be deployed in all, primarily Western countries, to let the masses know that, as it pertains to the current belief system on what constitutes value, we're transitioning from the current magic based system to one that is more indicative of what constitutes real value (this one is going to be a little more difficult to accomplish).

A just a few more items to add to your wonderful comments.

OvSHenri.#13867012/3/05; 11:04:02

The way you think and write
you are a "hand"ful and would
make a worthy facilitator.
I'll propose you as such at
"our" next meeting...
By the way, I fully agree with
all you hinted on...See my up-
coming reply to Belgian. OvS

Clink!@Ned, Belgian re HUI#13867112/3/05; 12:50:50

Another possible problem is the level of naked shorting (illegal or not) going on. Shorting pushed down the POG for years, so there is no reason for the same not to be true for shares.
On a similar subject, as The Invisible Hand posted yesterday in #138658 in "Spanish", his post merits a short translation (I know that Belgian could do a better job, but ...). It talks about a draft Bill which was brought to the Belgian House of Representatives on Nov 17, and concerns the elimination of share certificates.

"In effect, from Jan 1st 2008, they [Belgian-registered companies] will no longer be able to issue bearer bonds which are the most usual form of bonds of these companies. They will only be able to issue registered securities or "dematerialized bonds" [Sorry, that's a direct translation - it just sounded too good to changed to more "correct" English]."

It goes on to say that all the bonds will be held by licenced account holders. Now this concerns bonds, and not shares, and it is Belgium, but it shows that there is a push towards less concrete ownership. Considering the rumblings concerning illegal naked shorting of many companies in the U.S. (and not just mining stocks), it would appear that the one avenue of stopping one's shares being loaned (apart from being held in an IRA) is likely to close at some time in the not too distant future.


Belgian@Ned#13867212/3/05; 13:10:39

I do follow your reasoning. And it might indeed be just a little bit too early, jumping to the conclusion I presented.
But during the past 6 years, the POG and goldmine correlation, definitely differs in behavior from the period 1980 > 1999. A post factum conclusion, of course.
This 6 years behavioral change is more than enough reason for me to have heavy doubts about the future of any goldmine paper. Not worth risking any cent on it.

The goldmines did NOT confirm POG's new high (+$500). A divergence of significance to me.
And because I stick to my opinion that in the past 20 years ('80-'00) a particular faction in the gold cartel has been responsible for all the goldmine price moves...I think they changed their view (practices) on goldmine paper (think ETFs).

Bear in mind, that at present, the USdollar-POG correlation (cyclical move-oscillation), is at an important crossroad, again ! Gold is still moving in its commodity (fiat) context. Enough reason to be very vigilant and avoid unescessary risks of losing currency.
Read smart Bloom's view on GE. A highly probable scenario for the short term.

The LBMA decline in gold contracts since 1997 also halted for the recent quarter. The road to freegold (paper to physical gold) is a bumping one due to the ongoing currency competition (shifts).

Asia + Petro-dollars are not shifting into goldmine shares as reserve. They go physical.
And for all the time that the gold cartel remained convinced that the political consensus was such, that the goldprice should stay under control (management),...the goldmine paper had its runs ...was allowed to move up and anticipate the semi fixed retain leverage.

To me, it remains significant that the rand currency stays strong after all those decades of permanent decline. Is the gold-reserve statement of the SA C-Bank a coincidence !? Think it isn't. The rand currency exchange rate is NOT at the goldminers' service anymore !!!

The sudden break in dollar-POG correlation + all the physical gold statements is probably an explosive coctail.
Has the fuse already be ignited ? W'll soon find out. Take care, Ned.

monTROZLeft hook#13867312/3/05; 13:33:00

Looking at charts this weekend, some observations might be of interest. Last year this time both gold and silver were making new highs, and close to the tops of their trend channels. They both took a big quick downturn. Gold lost 15 dollars 453.70 - 438.70 December 7-8 2004 (I'm just looking at dollar data, no data on metals in other currencies) and silver lost 1.08 dollars 7.885 - 6.800 the same two days. Ugh, that's a tough anniversary date coming next week. The gold daily chart has unfilled gaps at 436, 452, and 472. Silver has unfilled gaps at 6.80, 7.84, 8.15, and last Friday's gap at 8.30. Gaps have a strong tendency to get filled, Ugh. The last three years gold and silver have made tops in the December January period and had downturns to the bottom of their trend channels that occurred over the next one or two months. The precious metal mining stocks are underperforming, Comex margin rates just got raised, the old Fed chairman tidies up the desk before leaving office. Ugh, Ugh, Ugh.

I know this sounds like I've gone over to the other side and I'm trying to talk gold down. Nope, I've just taken enough hits to know, you should step out of the way when you see a left hook coming.

TopazGold, Bonds.#13867412/3/05; 14:21:36

As curiosities go, our PoG is right up there with the best of them ...for 8 mth's this year the thing went UP with Delivery Month, then, as if by magic, it decides to go up in non-D mth's and flat in dels. (see Chart)
So Dec will be FLAT methinks ...unless it goes Up OR Down.

Bond Yield is the key to EVERYTHING in Dec ...Gold, Oil and DX. Our current 111+ (LBPrice) is or needs to get down to 109 imo.

We watch!

R PowellCOT report, fwiw#13867512/3/05; 14:41:27

I see nothing bearish in these numbers for silver, copper or gold, but I also don't place much predictive potential in COT numbers. Even after months of the copper bull, all three categories of traders are fairly evenly positions: longs vs shorts..? Also the silver small specs ratio of longs to shorts is about where it always seem to be
no matter what the POS is doing.

It's one cold day here in the Northeast, USA. I've had enough already, let's bring back summer or head south to visit Mr. Gresham.
happy weekend...

GoldendomeGold Metal vs. Gold Stocks#13867612/3/05; 14:47:43

May we go back to simple supply and demand? Physical gold has both limited supply and supply increases. Gold mining shares have potentially unlimited supply and supply inflation. In addition, physical gold is fungible (an ounce is an ounce) where as with gold mining shares, it's a crap shoot.

We should also consider that at the margin where prices are set, the price of physical gold is no longer being set by the traditional industrialized countries. The back side of the huge trade deficits being run in the U.S. is that many people in Asia are making huge amounts of money; they like to buy gold and for good reason have distrust of banks. A young lady in India now may now have a large amount of Gold in her wedding troussaeux and no interest at all in gold stocks. In Asia and Latin America, gold jewelry is wealth!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A world of gold at your fingertips...#13867712/3/05; 14:57:38">gold -- a global calling card
OvSBelgian.#13867812/3/05; 15:15:57

I lost a wordy reply to you in
cyberspace; God punished me:
my style is brief and to the
point. Thus,
The Alden siblings' 25 yr chart
starts with the gold blow-up.
Go back 10 yrs and you see
gold going to 100 and doubling
to 200 and many stocks were
stagnant, could have been gotten
for pennies and below 2 dollars.
That's the phase we are in right
now. Later on, in the second
stage those same penny stocks
were blowing sky-high and sold
for 50 100 up to 500 dollars plus.

Why in the world would, in Henri's
words, those "facilitators" forgo
such a money-machine par excellence?
I agree with most of your theses
regards free gold. It will happen
and disconnect with the stock con-
game, just like in the 70's most
stocks got thrashed but a select
group kept high and dry, or when
the Nasdaq lost 80% a few years
back, the Dow did keep a lot of
its price.

To the forum I say: this coming
stock-blow-up is going to be a
killer of your fortunes. Stay
away and you'll do very nicely
with your physical. Remember,
Murphy called Sinclair a sissy
with a 1650 price prognosis for
spot gold. LOL. But Sinclair is
holding back to not look like a

Smeagol #13867912/3/05; 16:13:21

Ssir Mikal msg# 138668: "Marking silver to market would be a fine idea, but then it's not globally available in sufficient quantity to strategic military and monopolistic enterprises that depend on it for their lifeblood."

So? They will have to make do with less... and maybe we will all be better off for it.

What we actually ssaid...was mark the Libertad to market.

We only cares that...sss..."strategic military and monopolistic enterprises"...are able to get silver (and anything else) as long as they have to compete for it with you and us in a FREE market.

"If so much precious little remaining silver is anticipated to be removed from "the last remaining stockpiles" through open interest Comex deliveries can you tell me how much world inventory has not been certified or audited?"

If one buys without proof of existence they might get what they deserves - nothing!
If one relies on promises of metal being AVAILABLE in the future instead of metal in hand FOR the future...ditto.

"And, wouldn't someone have already "negotiated" or otherwise "persuaded", legally or illegally, ethically or not, a lid be installed on psychologically potent silver deliveries leaving the warehouses to prevent a run on industrial and strategic stockpiles? Or is this their intent, to create a run up in price and then a panic selloff by releasing hidden hoards?"

Ssurely, precious, the Comex is not the only place to get silver if one REALLY has to have ssome...sss... we would think that "strategic military and monopolistic enterprises" would be ssmart enough to have known what we ssee happening now, long ago... and positioned themselfs accordingly... long ago.

"No, I think it more likely the PTB surely have an interest in seeing the price of silver prevented from impacting a growing number of secret, defense and industrial applications and emerging countries. That is, not TOO high a 'price'.

Hmmm....sss... you make us wonder... if they have sspent O SSSO much effort on silver, how many other things might they not want to pay free market prices for?


WOWSERS!, as Ssir Gandalf would ssay-

We lisstened to the link posted yessterday by Ssir Galearis (12/2/05 msg#: 138642), and the sspeaker mentions that massive short-sselling of shares is done to drive companies into the ground so that their underlying ASSETS... whether physical or intellectual.. may be acquired. The ssituation appears to be reaching a critical point in regard to going public, which WILL have effect on market confidence... and we all know what that means.

As for It, sso go shares, we guesses... like metal, now if you don't have your shares IN HAND you may not have anything soon. Take delivery of metal AND certificates (of any sstock) to sstop naked shorting!


Smeagol**** Financial Storm Radar Alert ****#13868012/3/05; 16:28:55

We are lisstening to more, and we recommend YOU lissten to all of them, and soon!!!

Thank you Ssir Galearis!!!


SmeagolQuotes from one of our last - wish we had a transcript#13868112/3/05; 16:56:38

"the long side of the equation is not the problem"...

"Correct me if I'm wrong, but, naked short selling and counterfeit shares are two separate issues, correct?"

"No, they are not; when you naked short a stock you have electronically counterfeited the share." (a federal crime)

"The situation with Overstock(.com)..." "They can't get delivery on shares that they've bought after a year using Motgan Stanley. It's insane."

"I don't think there is enough money in the system to cover the fails that are out there..."

"...if they dont find a rational way to logically and coherently settle this matter over a period of years the possibility for a financial meltdown is very real."

"at this juncture our delivery system is broken"

A real good lesson on how it all works... and doesn't.

Belgian@OvS#13868212/3/05; 17:13:29

The period 1971-1980 and now : A few strong fundamentals have been added as to avoid the same abortion of gold becoming a wealth reserve.
During the '71-'80 period, gold had to remain in its commodity context to the (limited) profit of the goldmines.
Goldmines were digging up a $-commodity (precious metal) and not a tangible, established as universal wealth reserve.
The goldprice managers (the universal dollar regime) decided on the goldmine industry's life. Tomorrow, it will be the different states who will decide what will happen to their underground gold wealth. I don't wish to wait and see what exactly will be decided and therefore prefer to have the refined product in my possession.

In the coming decades we will spend much efforts on preserving our wealth savings (safe goldmetal), rather than speculate/gamble on acquiring more of the same (debt)digits (risky goldmining). The very nature of the goldmines and their product is changing.

Think about the ever rising risk that the expanding derivative volume is accumulating. This paper Zeppelin will end in flames like the Hindenburg. This type of pending risks will cause a rush to tangibles like goldmetal. Goldmines are NOT the owners of the wealth reserve they are producing. They have no grip on their product. Goldmine shares were always labelled as speculative and not wealth protective. Much later, some goldmines might get the status that present major oil companies enjoy. But this is far from a certainty.

Freegold will not be reached without a lot of turbulance during the final landing procedure. I prefer the golden metal seat belt.

CoBra(too)Bullion vs Its Miners (interrupting my sabbatical briefly).#13868312/3/05; 18:40:30

A very old and ever more interesting question.

It is as old as the question of the chicken and the egg. Well, who comes first? Did we mere mortals ever find a solution to this basic quest?

We know, though, that all the above ground gold existing today has been mined at some stage. In times throughout history the gold mined per year was allowing a modest growth rate of about 2.5% of equivalent montary expansion for economic purposes.

I'd like to back up for a little while and also state what has happened to the Spanish Empire after squandering the Aztec's and Inka's bonanzas; Or the Californian and Yukon Gold Rushes. Similar to the Australian Gold at the turn of the 19th. Century - as well as the Canadian manifold new big strikes.

After the total abandonment of Gold by FDR in 1934 in the US and the Nixon default on the Bretton Woods Agreement - the US was left with a negligible gold production of 30 tons per annum. Similar to Australia and Canada's output at times. The SAR was still producing about 1.200 annual tons; A fact, which changed as rapidly as the US (mostly NV) may now already be close second contender.

The world's main statits found out it can trick the rest of the world into a semblance of a gold backed system of Fiat Paper, where SDR's take over the role of gold. Well, it did work for a while - until - as always the statists blew the scheme by over-indulging in their own ploy.

And how they blew it! When gold hit 850 Dollars per ounce in early 1980 the US didn't even manage their first dirty Trillion in debt ... we're way across 8, Trillion - that is - officially. So GOLD has a long way to go.

Furthermore, with all the gold (bullion) shorts - thanks to our derivative driven "hedge" fund philosophy - including the overhedged bullion bank miners a.k.a. "miners" like Barrick, Placer Dome and Anglo to name the main perpetrators - there are still a number of straight forward miners, developers and explorers to fill the gap ... eventually.

... And we face a deficit for years to come. Sold forward our soul and our gold - silver as well - maybe even to a greater extent ... and what's more - a lot of the future of our next generation. The generation we depend upon paying our old age pensions, while destroying their world as we've known it.

I do feel we are in a changing environment; An environment, where financial assets will again be regarded as suspect.

Of course, Gold, Silver, energy,food and other (natural) resources will slowly recuperate from their long bear market - though, the real message is you got to put in a lot of labor to achieve the wealth you seek.

Nothing has changed in the long view - just a few modern Western perceptions may change dramatically in the next little while.

... While some farmers will go on growing healthy food, miners will produce metals and other resources and the financial "industry" will pull in their horns and try to service their clients for a change... Uh, Oh, don't think so as bankers are miners of exponential debt!

Gold and Gold Mining IMHO has had a historical function - debase it and you debase the globe's historic system of functional growth!

It may have happened, though that's not been caused by FREE GOLD, or any such insidious ideas - as Gold always has been the arbiter of the real value of labor ... and not Jack Welch's hideous salary ... the latest inflation barometer...

So, my only consolation would be - take it out with your hedge funds - and leave us moles and hamsters to our specified occupations.

Go Dig! cb2

GoldiloxAs many as 60 U.S. Congressmen may be implicated in Bribery scandal#13868412/3/05; 19:19:29


Michael Scanlon, a Republican political operative, publicist and former press spokesman for House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, pled guilty November 21 to conspiring with lobbyist Jack Abramoff to bribe a Republican congressman and cheat several American Indian tribes out of tens of millions of dollars.

Scanlon's guilty plea-and even more his agreement to cooperate fully with federal prosecutors and testify against former colleagues-has sent a chill through Republican ranks and raised the prospect of numerous indictments, convictions and jail terms for congressmen and congressional staffers as well as Bush administration officials involved in the rampant corruption of official Washington.

By the end of last week, there were press reports that at least four Republican legislators and 17 staffers and former staffers were the targets of the Justice Department investigation into the Abramoff affair. The Wall Street Journal named DeLay, Congressman Robert Ney of Ohio, Congressman John Doolittle of California, and Senator Conrad Burns of Montana as targets, as well as several former Bush administration officials. The Washington Post reported that prosecutors had informed Congressman Ney that he was the subject of a bribery investigation and added that the wives of DeLay and Doolittle had also been linked to Abramoff's influence-peddling schemes.

The Abramoff affair could have much wider implications. A reporter for BusinessWeek, on a television interview program, said that his Justice Department sources had told him that as many as 60 congressmen could be implicated in the bribery scandal-far more than enough to threaten control over the House of Representatives, where the Republican majority is 231-202, with one independent.


It appears the house of cards may be suffering a large wind! Here in the sunny left coast, another congressman has resigned over bribery and income-tax fraud.

It is getting interesting, indeed.

SmeagolThe Faulking Truth on naked short selling...#13868512/3/05; 19:29:08

Ssir Galearis' MP3's led us back to these.

From a group of articles at link:

"We Definitely Aren't in Kansas Anymore - Fraud Wall Street Style

By Bob O'Brien
Nov. 3, 2005

Folks, it couldn't get any weirder.

I was talking with our friend Dr. Byrne, and he told me a story that defies imagination. I honestly thought he was pulling my leg - had one of those double take moments, where you have to shake your head to confirm you're awake. Before I tell you the gist of this, let me send out a little tidbit to any regulators reading this - I urge you to contact Dr. Byrne for corroboration. I couldn't make this up if I tried - nobody would believe it.

First, there is the matter of Jack Byrne's 200K share purchase of OSTK, which is now closing in on 90 days since the order was executed.

Jack got 130K "registered in his name" with his broker (who knows what that means - I mean, who really knows what any of the arcane terminology really signifies at day's end?) recently, but he hasn't received the other 70K shares, and his broker is telling him they've been unsuccessful in getting the shares from JP Morgan (the seller's broker - and arguably the most venerated name on Wall Street), and that there is no ETA for their delivery.

That is seventy THOUSAND shares bought and paid for almost a quarter year ago, undelivered. And Byrne's broker hasn't bought in the offending seller. Just hasn't.

Before we continue, stop and reflect upon this set of circumstances - the Chairman of the Board of the company can't get $2.5 million worth of stock that he bought and paid for - and yet there is relentless selling pressure day after day. For months the stock price has been pummeled, and yet for months the buyer's broker can't get the product that was sold.

To add insult to injury, apparently Dr. Byrne's brother bought 50K shares almost a month ago, and he hasn't gotten his shares delivered either. So it isn't just dad. The performance of the system has been tested multiple times, and nobody can get any shares delivered to make good on the buys - but that hasn't stopped the brokers from relentlessly continuing to sell that which doesn't exist.

Aren't there laws against that? 17A? SHO? 10(b)5 - participating in a stock price manipulation scheme (by selling bogus shares to depress the price)?

You bet there are. It's just that so much money is being made by all the bad guys and their brokers, that nobody cares what the law says.

So much for Reg SHO.

So much for fair markets.

So much for the SEC.

So much for clamping down on criminal stock manipulation.

But as if that wasn't sufficiently outrageous so as to cause every major financial publication in the country to run full page, indignant articles on the collapse of the market system, here's where it goes off the reservation and into the twilight zone.

Jack Byrne apparently has inquired about buying another large slug of OSTK stock, as he presumably feels it is incredibly undervalued, and he wants to own more of it.

And he is the new Chairman of the Board. They tend to do that, those wealthy, successful COB's - buy stock in the companies they are stewarding (lest anyone think this is inside info, he hasn't to my knowledge placed any orders, nor filed any forms - but if Dr. Byrne is to be believed, his dad has made inquiries which his broker knows are as serious as a heart attack).

His broker informed him that he could buy the "shares", but only if he didn't request delivery. The broker - one of the largest in the nation - told him that "the order would not likely be filled if he insisted on delivery, BECAUSE NO BROKER WOULD SELL THEM ON THAT BASIS!!!!"

I am not making this up. Those were the words - you are reading this correctly. The brokers will only sell the COB of the company stock if they don't have to deliver what they took his money for - what they sold - presumably because they understand that every share being traded is bogus, and undeliverable, and nobody wants to feel Jack Byrne's heat.

If you are a retail buyer, they will be happy to lie to you and cheat you, but nobody wants to tackle heavyweight informed buyers with cash - because they know that every sale is a sham sale, and won't be delivered.

They know it.

They understand it.

They are clear on it. They are booking transactions designed to methodically reduce the price of the company's stock, accepting cash in return for the transactions, but have no ability nor interest in delivering the product being paid for.

It's called fraud, Wall Street style.

Sheer unbridled stock manipulation and fraud, overt, with no attempt at concealment.

So what else needs to be said? The broker in question knows that he is participating in a massive scam to run down the share price of the company (known to you and me as stock manipulation) - everyone in the industry apparently knows, and nobody wants any part of being made the test case by a guy with juice. Because they know there is no defense for their actions. And it isn't worth it.

Unless you are Joe investor, in which case you can be screwed at will, with nobody to stop the participants from doing so.

Does anyone have any questions? Nobody will accept a legitimate buy order from someone with big money and a desire to actually get what they paid for, on a large, NASDAQ traded stock, which is on the Reg SHO Threshold list of securities that MUST get shares delivered within a few trading days. Except nobody wants to accept an order for weight, because it is common knowledge that there aren't any shares. And nobody is doing anything about it, nobody is enforcing any regulations, and the brokers keep cranking out the IOUs on behalf of their hedge fund customers - only now only to people unable to call in the IOU, and force the brokers to make good on them.

Every day hundreds of thousands of "shares" are sold, surpassing demand and depressing the price. But only to rubes that don't know any better, or who don't have the juice to enforce delivery.

What can be said at this point? Exactly how bad and how blatant does this have to get before Congress calls hearings and appoints a special prosecutor? Or is it simply now the prevailing business wisdom in Washington and Wall Street that overt market manipulation and fraud are what you get if you are stupid enough to put a dime in the market?

How blatant does it have to be, when the COB can't get anyone to sell him shares unless he promises to accept bogus chits instead of shares, even as the price of the stock declines?

Are we seeing any articles in the Wall Street Journal on this?

Is Bethany writing about this? Seth? Floyd? Even Herb?

How about Alpert? Is Barron's deaf and dumb when it comes to provable fraud and collusion on a massive scale?

Where is Forbes? Where is the New York Times? The Washington Post?

The GD Chairman can't get delivery on almost half the shares he bought almost a quarter year ago, and now nobody wants to accept a buy order if they have to deliver anything.

Because who wants to actually have to deliver what clearly can't be delivered? THERE AREN'T ANY REAL SHARES TRADING. And the system knows it.

This sickens me. It really does. I can't conceive of words ugly and base enough to describe how low and foul this is - folks are losing their retirements, and the industry knows they are defrauding the investing public, and nobody wants to say a word, or do their frigging jobs and put a stop to it.

So how bad does it have to get?

How bad?

How much worse can it get? At what point should we discard the conceit that we are living in a nation of laws, where the rule of law protects the individual, when Wall Street can break into your house, steal your wallet, and laugh at you when you call the cops?

I'd say we are at that point now. The law is not being enforced, the system is disintegrating on its first very public test by those with the resources to demand that it perform, and there is not a single regulator, agency, elected official, or lawmaker willing to stop the fraud.

This is a farce.

And I hang my head in shame that I was ever stupid enough to put one dime, much less one million, into the market. It is institutionalized fraud and theft, nothing more, and is as mean, base and crooked as anything I've ever witnessed in the most corrupt backwater banana republic.

And nobody is willing to do a thing about it.

What is left to say?"


Well, how do mining shares fit into this, eh?
Get under a physical gold shelter, it's going to get messy!

Ten BearsBernankeism: Fraud or Menace?#13868612/3/05; 21:05:27

Out of the frying pan and into the fire; Greenspan to Bernanke.

A very interesting read with references to several Bernanke speeches. Looks very good for gold prices in U.S. dollars.

DruidSmeagol (12/3/05; 16:28:55MT - msg#: 138680)#13868712/3/05; 21:18:27

Druid: Sir Smeagol, this naked shorting business gets right down to the heart of the matter when it comes to price capping , theft, graft, and the really big one, keeping inflation in check. In fact, this leftover inflation is finding its way into private bank accounts, whereas, it should be showing up in overpriced stock and bond markets.

Even the legitimate shorts are getting taken. The average mainstream investor is being used like an ATM machine without their permission and knowledge of the fact. Keep listening because Washington knows this crap is going on but turning a blind eye to it.

I mean it's one thing to piss all over us goldbugs because who cares right? But man, they've gone mainstream with their looting and some of the middle class is actually waking up and starting to figure it out.

Liberty HeadDruid - Re Naked Shorting#13868812/3/05; 22:12:09

Druid - "Washington knows this crap is going on but turning a blind eye to it."

Liberty Head - "Washington knows this crap is going on and is actively participating in it."

Best Wishes

GoldiloxBig Giant Casino#13868912/3/05; 22:12:53

@ Smeagol,

I posted that link about a month ago, but it never hurts to have a reminder of the "real markets."

The greatest irony is watching the Donald build new casinos in the wreckage of the Gulf Coast with RE loans more than likely backed by money earmarked for refugee reconstruction. Wasn't it nice of George the First and Wild Bill to sponsor a telethon for his latest scam? I wonder how long it will take him to engineer another bankruptcy and stiff his hotel contractors again?

Who will take the fall? The hedge funds on Wall St, or the politicians who turn their back on the obvious scams.

When push comes to shove, I think we'll see the pols take the fall and their financiers take the fifth (with CB gold purchases safely hidden in Swiss banks)!

SmeagolReminders....#13869012/3/05; 22:38:25

Yess, Ssir Goldilox... we recognized some of the text in articles there in did post a link.

The ssituation we thinks will be changing now that the fissh is out of the net... as more Joe and Jane Sixpacks become aware of the perils of the markets.

All the chicanery... and the repatriation of dollars that will end this year... has been helping keep things afloat.
2006 will be interessting indeed.

"Never A Dull Moment

Mark Faulk, in his one of his latest installments of The Faulking Truth, does a follow-up on the Global Links story - a saga that highlights the depth of the Fail To Deliver problem, and raises troubling questions about the role that the SEC and the DTCC are playing. His piece can be seen here. I note with wry amusement that the reporter he takes on as being one of the greatest disseminator of misleading information is one of our favorites: Carol Remond. She also happens to be the reporter that the hedge fund drive to discover my identity was shifted to when the issue became too embarrassing for WSJ Jesse Eisinger to pursue.
Here are a few select quotations from Mark's outstanding piece:

"... It seems that Robert Simpson, CEO of a small company in Michigan called Zann Corp., had bought every available share of Global Links Corp after the company had reduced their outstanding shares to about 1.1 million shares from more than 350 millions shares in early February. Incredibly, over the next two days, over 50 million shares traded hands, even though Simpson owned every share, and there were only 1.1 million shares even in existence. The Global Links story is one that, like the Stockgate scandal itself, just won't go away.

While some articles have called it the "poster child" of the Stockgate scandal, others have been more concerned with discussing their lack of financial success over the past few years, while ignoring the more important issue of how brokers could buy and sell almost fifty times the total issued shares in only two days, especially since those shares were presumably in the account of just one shareholder.

The Faulking Truth has received numerous emails from other GLKC stockholders who held shares totaling over 400,000 during the same time period. In fact, Global Links representative Patrick Donahoo says that "During the month of February, we were literally besieged by stockholders who were digging for information. While we cannot confirm exactly how many shares were purchased and held, we believe that this number exceeds 20 million shares." Twenty million shares out of a total available float of 1,158,064. Where did the other nineteen million shares come from?"

Now, I may not be a mathematician, but even I can understand that the likelihood of all of this being innocent is nil. And yet the system keeps insisting that there's no problem, and the DTCC is pushing the states to eliminate requirements for any paper certificates, thereby eliminating the only mechanism with which investors can verify that they aren't being screwed by the participants. Does any of this seem a trifle alarming? The entire trading/regulatory framework is simply ignoring the elephant in the room, while the DTCC works frantically to eliminate the last of the proof of malfeasance."

Looks like one has to not only demand physical Precious for delivery, but also Precious-mining shares?


YGMBelgian...Gold in the Ground Ownership#13869112/3/05; 22:50:57

If you truly wonder/worry about Nation States claiming Gold in the ground at some point and believe it does not belong to the miners and shareholders of mining companies then you best worry about owning your personal hoard. The Gov't will have a much harder time confiscating Gold owned by thousands of shareholders than the common individual. When Gold last saw confiscation in the USA there was NO effort made towards claiming "Gold in the Ground". As long as we have the individual right to own Gold personally we will see miners making profits for shareholders. Now if you ask me if we could see laws set forth defining "WHO" this mined Gold may be sold to then I would have reservations about making judgements.
PRITCHOGold Stocks Sold Short - - - - - - These are the "legal Shorts"#13869212/4/05; 01:24:17

Have been following the ongoing angst about naked short selling - - and Questions raised about "why" the Gold shares have not sped upwards with the POG. Perhaps a look at the following info will help explain - (taken from Jim Sinclairs web site Dec '01.

How many of you Americans have sent the "Naked Short" articles to your Congressmen & Media outlets DEMANDING an answer? -- - if not get off your butts!

Pitpundit Blog

Ten mining stocks the short sellers don't want to rise
By Gene Arensberg
27 Nov 2005 at 04:59 PM

Goldcorp - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 33,090,760 shares.

Kinross - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 32,278,124 shares.

Cambior - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 27,217,298 shares.

Barrick - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 23,477,575 shares.

Inco - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 20,020,168 shares.

Bema - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 16,203,654 shares.

Golden Star - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 14,645,003 shares.

Newmont - Reported short interest 14,370,000 shares.

Crystallex - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 10,607,407 shares.

Northern Orion - Combined US and Canadian reported short interest 9,257,457 shares.

More... See Link

Belgian@YGM#13869312/4/05; 01:50:53

When gold shall be re-installed as a --- WEALTH RESERVE ---
goldmines will be taxed as to control/regulate goldmining.
Confiscation, control, regulation/intervention, taxation of bullion in possession does NOT fit the definition and use of gold as a ---wealth reserve--- !
Today, gold jewelry carries a VAT...bullion NOT !

Once a state starts/continues taxing away one's permanent (universal)purchasing power...your * wealth * is being eroded...taken away from you.

No, goldmining is never going to be stopped. I see goldmetal evolving to wealth reserve status and it is in function of this picture that I prefer holding goldmetal wealth instead of holding taxed (regulated/controlled) goldmine shares.

There is a big difference between venturing for business profits (goldmines) and consolidation of wealth (goldmetal).

The ongoing evolution towards gold wealth reserve will put the present goldmetal owner wayyyyyyy ahead than the goldmine share holder/punter. That's why I brought the "loss of goldmine leverage" up.

Those who remain convinced that gold shall remain a "commodity"...should better stick to the old practices and discard gold-wealth-reserve as a theory or dream. Freedom of choice/opinion/dream, here at the usagold forum.

We are seeing the same evolution happening in oil/gas and other vital resources will follow. Away from commodity and closer to wealth. Only goldmetal will get the "reserve" status added to its wealth definition. And it is a changing world that is in the process of defining what wealth exactly is going to be.

OvSPritcho. Shortsales. Goldcorp.#13869412/4/05; 09:46:19

According to the "Short Interest
Leader" ShortSqueeze:

Goldcorp. short interest:
8,640,000 shares, that amounts to
short % of float ... 2.58%
Days to cover: 2.8
Goldcorp is trading on the New
York Stockexchange.

If Sinclair's data is correct it
could mean that the Canadian
market is shorting 24,450,760 shs.

Should that be true there would be
no point to write to Congressmen.
Short sales sometimes change very
quickly and the reason they are
made is not because one is negative
about the company but because one
wants to accumulate the shares.
The huge risk is a squeeze and if
you can't exit fast, you might
loose more than your pants, and
that includes nakes shorts...HaHa.

The data above presumably are legal
shorts. How one could possible
verify unconsumed shorts must be very
problematic. Maybe that is done
crossing borders? Sinclair has his
feet in both national markets, so,
perhaps he does know...That kind of
finagling must be fun for arbitrageurs.
Comment? OvS

Liberty HeadStopping The Shorts. No Tickee, No Washee#13869512/4/05; 11:24:13

One may as well spit in the ocean if you think writing your Congressperson will have any effect on the naked short scam. Unless the letter contains a subpoena from the DOJ, it won't get their attention.
The clear solution is for investors to hold stock certificates in their possession or better yet hold the asset itself.
Let's see now, what kind of asset could one hold in his possession?
Any ideas?

Best Wishes

Buongiorno!Sirs Smeagol, Goldilox, and others NAKED Shorts#13869612/4/05; 11:43:13

This appears to be our group at its finest--information gathered and shared for the benefit of all. Thanks.

I have never seen Sir Smeagol so upset, ever. And all for good reason. I spent yesterday just thinking and have resolved that the problem is about ten times worse than we think. But, therein perhaps lies the seeds of a solution.

We have all been taken to the woodshed for the past twenty years by entities manipulating the physical market--and have now figured out just about how it was done and what to do about it. Pray naked shorting is more quickly resolved.

A naked short in any substantial amount (1% of market cap?)represents, IMHO, an unregistered filing of market shares. Thus, the company stock is diluted to that extent with no proceeds added to the capital account. Bad enough in itself, but this process also side steps all the institutional protections that investors have come to expect. No due dilligence nor vetting of any kind takes place here.

Worse, yet, the proceeds of the very short sale raid that could have bankrupted or seriously damaged that company's ability to raise capital through legal channels, those proceeds may be used to purchase corporate assets for pennies on the dollar!! (No wonder hedge funds are perhaps our fastest growing financial institutions!)

So, what shall we do?
1) If any one has a channel to Eliott Spitzer or someone in power who would like a bit more (power)--drop a word or two. Next to this naked shorting Martha Stewart looks like an innocent June bride. Yet, she did jail time and so should these wolves.

2) Raise holy hell with Congress and demand action...It took about three years for Congressman Tancredo to get most of the rest of us behind him on illegal immigration, and perhaps something will be done. Hopefully sooner than that in our case.

3)Inform our friends in the corporate sector to show no unnessary signs of draws the wolf pack quicker than you can say "George Soros".

4) Lastly, order out your shares where possible, and if you suspect a raid is in progress. And if your broker will not agree to deliver, find another who will. Failing that, scream like hell to the regulators.

Shares, especially mining shares, are central to America and other countries for many reasons. (One hand sort of washes the other.) If we permit these stated excesses to continue, we shall be like the folks in New Orleans, up to our buttocks in dirty water and alligators.

All the more reason to thank Sir MK, his wonderful staff, Sir Black Blade, and others who have given us all an attractive alternative to the above mentioned mess.

YGMSir Belgian....Gold Taxation#13869712/4/05; 11:59:52

All thoughts and speculation of what Gov't control over Gold at all levels can be achieved thru taxation becomes a can of worms unopened so to speak. Today there are few states who allow monetized Gold or Bullion sales w/o varying rates of State taxation on said sales by agents. At present I believe no state taxes your personal sales of coins, however that also can change rapidly right? At present here in Canada I can mine a million oz of raw Gold and can even refine it and transition it into Bullion Bars with out any taxation until it is sold. Then I pay $2.00 p/oz 'Royalty' to the Gov't and the standard rate of "Income Tax". At present any scale of Gold miner in Canada can produce all the Gold they want and the Gov't considers it nothing more than a rock until it's point of sale. Yes that also can change as you imply. My point although is that unless one is contemplating the ability to black market his or her "Personal" Gold wealth thereby bypassing Gov't taxes in the event of new laws, the Miners are no more at risk than the onwers of personal holdings of Gold Wealth. So contrary to your statement of miners not owning the Gold in the ground I would disagree that at present I do own the Gold in my mining claims and I can mine as much as I will w/o paying tax, as long as I retain ownership. There exists also the potential for Mining companies to pay it's shareholder dividends in Gold Bullion as well to bypass taxation. I don't disagree with most of what you say, but do see just as much potential for Gov't Taxation control over Gold Wealth held by individuals as by Miners in ground Gold held by public companies. The final word is all Gov't's and even the UN can and will take and do exactly what they please when push comes to shove, whether it be our freedoms, our land, property or Gold. Thus we are back to the benefits of hidden Gold as an asset of wealth preservation and the ability to deal in a black market as a final last resort.IMHO
Liberty HeadKnow who the enemies of freedom are.#13869812/4/05; 12:15:42

"2) Raise holy hell with Congress and demand action...It took about three years for Congressman Tancredo to get most of the rest of us behind him on illegal immigration, and perhaps something will be done. Hopefully sooner than that in our case."

Liberty Head
The sheep will be better off if they don't prod the wolves to take action. The sheep need to bypass the wolves, stop acting like sheep and take some personal responsibility for their situation.

Best Wishes

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A world of gold at your fingertips...#13869912/4/05; 12:39:01">gold -- a global calling card
SmeagolWhat? Us upset? (scowling Alfred E. Newman face)#13870012/4/05; 12:42:09

O yess, precious... we are upset. Because the information - analysis...chartses...all the market numbers across all ssectors...that everyone relies on for guidance and future wealth-choices... is compromised by BAD DATA GENERATED BY NAKED SHORT SSELLING and Who knows what else, that is going on and will (or not) come to light? How can one take ssound market decisions involving ANYTHING in these circumsstances?

yess... we are upset - and we have never even been in the casino, we doesn't need or want to be either. We trussts in Him firsst, It second. Solid things, truthful things. We are an insignificant sspeck compared to Giants good and bad... but we still knows what real Wealth is.

trust Him first, It next
that you may live and prosper
with blessing of both


Liberty HeadNaked Shorts Eat 401K's for Breakfast, Lunch and Dinner.#13870112/4/05; 13:40:55

How domesticated sheep are sheared.

Lure the sheep into the 401k snare. Offer matching funds to entice the unsuspecting sheep to the 401k slaughter ground. 401k's preclude the sheep from holding any certificates and fuels the fire the naked shorts will use to barbeque the succulent lambs.
401k plans are very narrow, much like the narrow corrals ranchers use to load the sheep onto trucks and trains headed for the slaughterhouse.

401k's encourage crime. Criminals encourage 401k's.

Best Wishes

SmeagolAnimal farm#13870212/4/05; 15:39:20

We could paint a picture... of ssome publically traded gold miners hitched with a short chain to the market millwork of shadow-faced parties, trudging round and round, their sstock prices under harness, occasionally fed jusst enough to keep them going (and innocent stockholders hopes up and placated) while grinding out their Precious for the Powers at a cost of production that gently prods them from behind while they follows the market carrot-price dangling before them as they go round and round and round...

...but we won't.


David Linkley@Smeagol#13870312/4/05; 15:54:19

Unless the laws are changed or gold is officially nationalized the gold shares will have their day in the sun. Apparently the "select few" have not finished their accumulation yet.
YGMGold Stocks.....#13870412/4/05; 17:24:05

Lets keep it reality based here on AU Mining company share values. Since Jan 2000 I have one major alone that has gone up over 1000% ($2.00 to over $20.00) & other Juniors & a couple Majors from 300 to 600%. In recent weeks some Majors and Juniors have gone up 30% to 100%. These generalizations on Gold Stocks not moving in tandem or as they have historically done moving upward in value with Gold w/ the leverage of 8 to one over the metal are in the broader market, but with the right DD there have been many which have done far better than the metal. Yes there are manipulated and naked short sold stocks, and there ALWAYS have been, nothing new there just maybe the scope of the criminality. Stop fooling yourselves about Gold Mining stocks not making BIG money in future. Some of the oldest and biggest money IS IN GOLD SHARES around the globe and much of it by individuals and entities WHO Participate in the making of our laws and hold the purse strings and ownership of Central Banks. Money goes where money is and when the pendelum swings to Gold miners it will do so rapidly and with a vengence that will amaze many. Trillions of investment dollars circle the globe daily and much of it will eventually chase the Miners for leverage and some to Physical for wealth preservation.
Rowanraces#13870512/4/05; 18:27:22

Looks like gold is off to the races.
Rowanbull market#13870612/4/05; 18:29:27

What does someone say that this is more of a secular(long term) bull market than 1980?
David Linkley@YGM#13870712/4/05; 19:21:52

The point I was trying to make is the gold stock sector has one of the smallest market caps of any sector and much of the money (trillions) floating around the globe will find it. Many of the miners are not yet valued properly for their asset base.
PRITCHO@ OVS - - - Re Naked Shorting of Nonexistant Shares#13870812/4/05; 20:51:03

Hi there.To clarify -My call for bleating loudly to Congress crooks & the Press was ONLY relating to the criminal naked shorting with non-existing shares.The noise created by a growing number of concerned citizens can NOT be ignored forever. Or if it is best look for another country to live in.

It is NOT futile to protest --it just takes determination that the crooks are not going to be left in peace.It is amazing to outsiders that this sort of blatent criminal behaviour is allowed to go on in America - - we watch with interest.

DruidThe debasement of world currency: it is inflation, but not as we know it#13870912/4/05; 21:08:39

Druid: I wonder if the mainstream investor, who by-in-large doesn't have a clue about commodity markets, has been used by some sort of subbed-out Naked Short Cartel as an unwilling ATM machine in helping to maintain somewhat of a ranged bound price cap on commodities? I mean, talk about using other people's money in a way to keep them fooled about real price inflation.

I once heard a statistic that there were some 30,000+ mutual funds and roughly about 4+ commodity funds. Well, the mainstream is starting to catch on as evident by the NS stories flying all over investment boards on the internet. I am looking for volatility in all markets to really ramp up as investors in all markets try to figure out where to safely deploy their financial capital.

"Central banks are engaged in a desperate battle on two fronts

What we see at present is a battle between the central banks and the collapse of the financial system fought on two fronts. On one front, the central banks preside over the creation of additional liquidity for the financial system in order to hold back the tide of debt defaults that would otherwise occur. On the other, they incite investment banks and other willing parties to bet against a rise in the prices of gold, oil, base metals, soft commodities or anything else that might be deemed an indicator of inherent value. Their objective is to deprive the independent observer of any reliable benchmark against which to measure the eroding value, not only of the US dollar, but of all fiat currencies. Equally, their actions seek to deny the investor the opportunity to hedge against the fragility of the financial system by switching into a freely traded market for non-financial assets.

It is important to recognize that the central banks have found the battle on the second front much easier to fight than the first. Last November, I estimated the size of the gross stock of global debt instruments at $90 trillion for mid-2000. How much capital would it take to control the combined gold, oil and commodity markets? Probably, no more than $200bn, using derivatives. Moreover, it is not necessary for the central banks to fight the battle themselves, although central bank gold sales and gold leasing have certainly contributed to the cause. Most of the world's large investment banks have over-traded their capital so flagrantly that if the central banks were to lose the fight on the first front, then their stock would be worthless. Because their fate is intertwined with that of the central banks, investment banks are willing participants in the battle against rising gold, oil and commodity prices.

Central banks, and particularly the US Federal Reserve, are deploying their heavy artillery in the battle against a systemic collapse. This has been their primary concern for at least seven years. Their immediate objectives are to prevent the private sector bond market from closing its doors to new or refinancing borrowers and to forestall a technical break in the Dow Jones Industrials. Keeping the bond markets open is absolutely vital at a time when corporate profitability is on the ropes. Keeping the equity index on an even keel is essential to protect the wealth of the household sector and to maintain the expectation of future gains. For as long as these objectives can be achieved, the value of the US dollar can also be stabilized in relation to other currencies, despite the extraordinary imbalances in external trade."

GoldiloxHydrogen Atoms Manipulated Below the Surface of a Palladium Crystal#13871012/4/05; 22:45:24


For the first time, scientists have manipulated hydrogen atoms into stable sites beneath the surface of a palladium crystal, creating a structure predicted to be important in metal catalysts, in hydrogen storage, and in fuel cells. The research will be published in the 13 December 2005 issue of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.

Observations of the effects of the resulting subsurface hydrides--hydrogen atoms with a partial negative charge--confirmed the existence of the stable sites, which had been predicted but previously had neither been deliberately assembled nor directly observed. The research was led by Paul S. Weiss, Distinguished Professor of Chemistry and Physics at Penn State.

After moving absorbed hydrogen atoms to just below the crystal surface, the researchers were able to observe how the presence of the hydride in specific sites within a metal crystal affects the chemical, physical, and electronic properties of the metal. Understanding these effects could advance efforts to improve chemical reactions involving metal catalysts. In addition, the subsurface hydride may provide a model material for application in hydrogen storage and fuel cells. The ability to prepare the subsurface hydride provides an important research tool for these applications.


More ways to use those "noble" metals.

GoldiloxMissing Link#13871112/4/05; 22:46:13

Darn, did it again.
GoldiloxJPMorgan steps up offshoring in India#13871212/4/05; 22:53:59


JPMorgan Chase is planning to hire 4,500 graduates in India over the next two years with the aim of moving 30 per cent of its back office and support staff at its investment bank offshore by the end of 2007.

The plan is the most ambitious move by an international investment bank to take advantage of the low cost of highly educated staff in India.

It underlines the shift in the use of such offshore facilities from traditional areas such as information technology support and call centres to core operational functions and other high-value tasks.

The bulk of the bank's processing of foreign exchange trades will be carried out at its centres in Mumbai and Bangalore.

It is also moving over much of the processing of credit derivatives contracts, an area where US and UK regulators have expressed concern about backlogs across the industry.


Go ahead, write your Congressman. The finance guys a already a step ahead of you, and mor ethan willing to let Congress and even their loyal US monions take a fall while they move offshore.

SmeagolThe Demise of Coin?#13871312/4/05; 23:26:49 From link:

"One and two cent coins, jamming the wallets of consumers around Europe, and handed over the counter to the dismay of shop owners, may soon be a thing of the past for residents of Belgium and the Netherlands. These countries are now set to follow Finland in scrapping the smallest denominations of the euro, leaving consumers to round bills to the nearest five cents and thus avoiding those awkward (but often, for the consumer at least, uniquely satisfying) transactions consisting of carefully counted coppers.

Germany is exercising characteristic caution over the matter, fearful that the move may trigger further inflation similar to that seen at the introduction of the Euro. However, Belgium's central bank, looking to Finland as an example, expects that prices should rise by no more that 0.1%, and even if shopkeepers round all bills up to the nearest five (prices will remain labeled the same), the inflation is estimated to be no more than 0.4%.

The coins will remain legal tender throughout the eurozone, but countries rounding bills wish to reduce the volume in circulation. Not only are the coins expensive to mint, Dutch
retailers estimate that counting the coins alone costs them EUR30m a year."

Ssss.. it's only a matter of time, precious. In light of recent metal price inflation keeps going, all coin will eventually be worth more as metal than money... we sees all currencies at some point becoming completely paper... which will make inflating them... and electronic processing of accounts denominated in them... jusst that much easier.


YGMDavid Linkley #13871412/5/05; 00:03:28

I was & am in total agreement with your earlier post re mining shares having their day in the sun and all the money that will arrive on the doorstep at some point.. I was directing my comments to a few others who constantly have negative perceptions of miners and the dangers THEY percieve. I also own, advocate and recommend one's ownership of Physical, but to mark Gold mining share investment as a poor choice is tunnel vision IMHO so I have to throw in my two bits worth :-)
Black BladeThose Who Can Do, Those Who Can't Work For The Government#13871512/5/05; 00:42:39

Those Who Can Do, Those Who Can't Work For The Government

December 5, 2005

We constantly hear all the "good news" on the inflation front, but who are they kidding? The answer is obvious. The gullible financial media for one. How often do we hear the Carnival Barkers on CNBC "squawking" about the CPI and PPI numbers as if there is any real truth in the data? Only the gullible and inept really believe the government whether it is about macro-economic issues, unemployment, income, currency or even energy data.

"Figures don't lie, but liars figure" - Samuel Clemens (alias Mark Twain).

"There are liars, darn liars, and statisticians" – Samuel Clemens (alias Mark Twain).


The actual definition of inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. However, the obvious symptom for all to see is in higher prices for goods and services. For simplicity we will look at the symptoms and how the Federal Government massages the data to mislead (lie) and neglect their obligations to (that is cheat) the citizenry.


When the monthly raw economic data appears especially grim the Professional Liars (government statisticians) use a number of techniques to make inflation appear less than it is.

One technique is "data smoothing" This is simply taking data over an extended period and making "assumptions" about past and future numbers while rejecting "anomalies". This is of course absurd since consumers can't reject "anomalies" they face in their daily existence. They have to deal with them.

This is also evident on a shorter-term basis when calculating the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Government representatives and private sector Carnival Barkers will focus attention on the "Core Rate" of the CPI, which leaves out the costs of food, housing and energy. You know, the unimportant things in life. They do this because the overall CPI is volatile and if given as a whole without some "data massage" the illusion of benign inflation will be lost.

In the final analysis you still have to eat, heat your home, travel to work, and live somewhere. These are real expenses for consumers and not glibly discounted with an "Aw Shucks" mindset as seen by the professional liars. In the last three years we have seen energy costs rise 39.9% and food rise by 7.9%. Housing is wildly volatile depending on the locale.

The professional liars working for the Federal Government have yet another trick up their sleeve when it comes to housing. Housing makes up over 42% of the CPI and is the biggest expense faced by American families. Not so long ago the CPI calculated the home price by what it took to purchase and maintain a home. Not anymore! Now the professional liars measure the cost by what it would cost you to rent your home. As more Americans buy homes vacancy rates have surged in the last four years causing rental rates to fall as the purchase prices have risen. As the purchase price rose 13.4% in 2004 the CPI housing component rose a mere 3%. It doesn't stop just at housing but the changes have been with all major high-ticket items. Rather than using the price of new manufactured goods the CPI calculates the cost of "used" or "second-hand" goods.

Another trick used by the professional liars is one we have come to know as "Hedonic Deflation". As prices for goods and services rise the professional liars simply "assume" that consumers will buy cheaper alternatives or simply adjust the price for "productivity gains". For example, if the consumer price of steak rises, then the professional liars assume consumers will instead switch to lower priced chicken or lunch meat. Remember the uproar when the Reagan administration changed the food pyramid to calculate ketchup as a vegetable for the school lunch program? Not much has changed. Another example is the cost of a typical personal computer. Today these devices have more memory and work faster. Because new computers are better they are priced lower than they really are on "productivity gain" for CPI calculation purposes.

Another fine trick is the calculation of family income. In the not so distant past, incomes were calculated by "head-of-household" incomes. Now with more women in the labor force the calculation is based on "family" incomes. What has happened is that income is calculated by the increase in dual-income families rather than by increased wages. Another additional trick to this is the calculation of "imputed income". This is especially "mean-spirited" for military families. The allowance for uniforms and military benefits is calculated as income even as many of the military service members are living under the poverty level. This abuse of statistics goes beyond the military and into the private sector as well.

There are many other statistical abuses including one of my favorites – "seasonality" – however, there simply is not enough time or space to itemize the entire list. As it becomes more difficult to keep the illusion the list of abuses and lies grows longer as the professional liars work feverishly to design more measures of "data massage".


So why do the Professional Liars (Government Statisticians) so unpatriotic to hide the truth and cheat their fellow Americans? It's probably in their nature as competent skilled workers can find greater financial rewards in the private sector while the less skilled and dishonest can find a home in government work.

Perhaps the major reason is because payments to Social Security and Pension Plans are tied to the CPI. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) must also pay out higher income with rises in the CPI. By maintaining the illusion, the Federal Government can control costs with lowered payouts. Is there any doubt now as to why government workers and politicians (including those in Congress) refuse to participate in Social Security Ponzi Scheme themselves while confiscating wages from everyone else?


Precious Metals do well with rising inflation and a weakening US dollar. Since gold is priced in dollars (as is oil), investments in these commodities are the perfect hedge as a "portfolio insurance". Even more important is the rising demand over limited supply. Asia and the Middle East are becoming more affluent and the rising middle classes demand more luxury goods – goods we in the west take for granted as necessary items. They also have a cultural affinity for savings in hard assets like gold and silver. The central banks in these regions have more than enough US dollars in their reserves and are showing a desire to diversify. Some of that diversification is going to the precious metals. This has not gone unnoticed on Wall Street as the price of the metals (precious and base metals) are rising. Adjusted for inflation these prices have a lot of "room to roam".

One major factor to keep in mind is "negative real interest rates". "Negative Real Rates" occurs when nominal interest rates are subtracted from real inflation. Now that the illusion of tame inflation is falling away and few if any honest economists really believe the government spin on CPI, gold is rising rapidly on "negative real rates". When gold spiked to over $800/oz in the early 1980's it happened when "real rates" turn negative. We are now in the same situation again. In effect you are paid to borrow and buy hard assets that hold value against inflation.


It will become more difficult for the Government and its minions of liars to keep up the illusion and as with all ballooning scandals, this one too will fail. Americans hear the "good news" on inflation but feel the increasing grip on their wallets.

The best advice is to adjust investments to err on the side of rising inflation. This means a modest to hefty position in precious metals and energy-related investments. As inflation rises so does the cost of commodities. Gold and silver bullion are hard assets that provide secrecy, act as a hedge on a declining US Dollar, and work as "Portfolio Insurance" when equities decline. Energy investments have historically done well prior to and during economic recessions. In fact every post-war economic recession has been preceded by an energy crisis.

As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, get gold and silver "portfolio insurance", and start a nonperishable food and water storage program. It is always advisable to err on the side of caution and be prepared for whatever natural or financial calamity may come. In short – "look out for number one" because no one else will.

- Dennis Erectus (aka Black Blade)

al Sark Azim@YGM and Linkley#13871612/5/05; 01:35:28

That's the game, yeh?

Let the heathens have it, let them buy up the gold, yeh?

But we're sophisticated, yeh, so we'll pay up to have men dig and we call a share of the operation ours, yeh?

The company sells gold so heathen's money can maybe pay small or no dividends with most sales to pay the management, the board, and engineering expenses for always marginal profits, yeh? The company high-grades at low prices and low-grades at high prices, always one foot in the grave, yeh?

When the gold is all gone into the hands of heathens we sell our empty hole to the next greater fool and retire millionaires on the leaverage of shareholder stupidity, yeh?

No thankyou. Look behind you, you are among the last in line.

The heathen life for me.

contrarianNew Element Found: Governmentium!#13871712/5/05; 03:58:27

News Bulletin from Gold-Eagle:

(U308)Dec 05, 00:35
The recent hurricanes and skyrocketing oil and gasoline prices helped
to prove the existence of a new element. In early October 2005, a
major research institution announced the discovery of the heaviest
element yet known to science. The new element has been
named "Governmentium."

Governmentium (Gv) has one neutron, 25 assistant neutrons, 88 deputy
neutrons, and 198 assistant deputy neutrons, giving it an atomic mass
of 312. These 312 particles are held together by forces
called 'morons' which are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-
like particles called 'peons.' Since Gv has no electrons, it is
inert. However, it can be detected, because it impedes every reaction
with which it comes into contact. A minute amount of Gv causes one
reaction to take over four days to complete, when it would normally
take less than a second!

Gv has a normal half-life of 4 years; it does not decay; but instead
undergoes a reorganization in which a portion of the assistant
neutrons and deputy neutrons exchange places. In fact,
Governmentium's mass will actually increase over time, since each
reorganization will cause more morons to become neutrons,
forming 'isodopes.' This characteristic of moron promotion leads most
scientists to believe that Gv is formed whenever morons reach a
certain quantity in concentration. This hypothetical quantity is
referred to as 'Critical Morass.'

When catalyzed with money, Gv becomes "Administratium' (Am) - an
element which radiates just as much energy as Gv, since it has half
as many peons but twice as many morons.

Goldilox"Dennis Erectus"#13871812/5/05; 04:22:56

@ BB,

I always get a laugh when you sign off as "DE".

Being a geologist, you may appreciate my reason even more.

Dennis used to play a medley on the air called "My Favorite Diseases", containing some very funny (but deranged) lyrics from popular songs - all describing various human ailments. I think it began with "My Favorite Things" - thus the title.

Anyway, to make a long story a little shorter, my buddy used to perform this in his piano bar act (I won't say how often, as he can't afford the royalties), and when I started backing him on the guitar, we added some more equally twisted creations until it became about a 15 minute piece.

One of our additions was (OK, I finally got to the "geology" part, and I'm sure you'll catch the tune):

"Gallstones, I've got gallstones.
They're the modern stone-age misery.
They're as hard as bedrock,
And they hurt whenever I go pee.

Lately, they're not being good to me.
Soon I will require surgery.

Gallstones, freakin' gallstones,
They're the "yabba-dabba-doo" stones.
I'm turning blue stones
I've got some big gallstones!

We rarely got through the entire number without the whole place - including the musicians - all losing it. After all, laughter IS the best medicine, especially combined with a Negro Modello chaser.



P.S. If I've told you this before, add senility to my list of personal pathologies!

Ned@ YGM#13871912/5/05; 05:08:08

I tend to agree with your message 138697.

If 'It' gets to the point where government has to take underground gold from shareholders then what difference, relatively speaking, is it to take from the individual.

Pondering that thought, maybe it is easier to 'steal' from the individual.


Note to self:

When gold reaches 4 digits, sell a few oz.'s buy a car, a new wardrobe, buy wife large 'zirconia', throw a BIG party. Generally boast about 'cashing' out......then quiet as a mouse.


GoldiloxLet us not forget . . .#13872012/5/05; 05:10:40

@ contrarian,

Parasiteum, Pr -

An element so elusive, it has thus far defied all attempts at emperical description. Many official experts claim that this is not an element at all, but simply an unexplainable energy transfer.

However, while evading classification, it has exhibited incredibly strong covalent bonding with Gv and Ad, managing to absorb nearly the entire energetic state of the larger elements, leaving nary a trace of the reactive pathways for scientists to identify. This is no mean feat, given the lack of e- in Gv and Ad. The lack of electrons in Gv and Ad seems to allows Pr to assume the entire energetic shell structure of both the larger elements, without the structural limitations of the host element.

In light of its unexplainable behavior, the elusive reaction has been dubbed "Symbionticus Offshoricus" by scientific pundits.

OvSNed.#13872112/5/05; 06:33:00

Maybe it would not be advisable
to "boast about cashing-out"
while the soup-kitchen lines
are getting longer...
Maybe then, us lucky ones should
"start" soupkitchens...
Feeling guilty already? Relax OvS.

OvSTo our GEO LOGIST.#13872212/5/05; 06:49:45

Now I understand why you
laced your IRA with
Paladium. Not because it
is an element, but because
it is a catalyst.
When our society will in-
creasingly switch from a
gas driven to a hydrogen
driven one, hydrogen must
be transported, and it can
only be transported safely
& cheaply with the addition
of platinum or palladium.
They can absorb hydrogen
900 times their volume in
hydrogen and after transpor-
tion can be recovered comp-
Who said Geo Logy is useless?!

OvSGoldilox.#13872312/5/05; 07:01:20

Whatever happened to those
Utah experiments with pala-

YGMal Sark Azim #13872412/5/05; 07:14:40

Don't waste time looking for me in your line, I'm not there. Neither behind nor ahead, I left your line up long ago! I walk the trail of Another's friends and have done so for many years. My Gold came for pennies on the dollar as did my mining shares. Gold is to hold, stocks are to be sold. Sometimes in a race one participant is so far behind they think they're first. When the old time Yukon Gold miner was asked which Bank he kept his Gold in he answered "The Creek Bank".
GoldiloxMore Palladium stuff#13872512/5/05; 08:33:32


I'm assuming you mean the "cold fusion" claims, although UU staff researchers have also published some other catalytic discoveries for Palladium in the organic chem lab. Google for more info.

An interesting source I found for ongoing "cold fusion" work is at the posted URL, although more in-depth examination requires subscription.

It seems no one has posted much about the UU-Palladium connection for about 15 years.

It has either become classified, or stalled for lack of interest, as D2O is not a very commercially viable reagent.

GoldiloxMcCain Says Abramoff Probe Will Lead to More Indictments#13872612/5/05; 09:15:35


Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Senator John McCain said he expects ``lots'' of indictments to grow out of the federal investigation of lobbyist Jack Abramoff and that there was ``strong evidence'' of wrongdoing by some lawmakers.

``This town has become very corrupt, there's no doubt about it,'' McCain said today on NBC's ``Meet the Press'' program.

The Arizona Republican is chairman of the Senate Indian Affairs Committee and has led a congressional probe of Abramoff's dealings with Indian tribes who hired him as a lobbyist. The Justice Department is investigating Abramoff's contacts with lawmakers and congressional staff members.

``There's strong evidence that there was significant wrongdoing,'' McCain said when asked whether he believed some lawmakers have committed crimes. He declined to be specific.


Sides are being taken, but those who are intimate with the globalist CANAMEX highway issues in AZ would hardly sugest McCain as an appropriate judge of other Congressional wrong-doing.

OvSThanks Goldilox.#13872712/5/05; 09:17:46

So much interesting research
going on everywhere, I wish I
were a young man again to ab-
sorb it and use it.

At first, LOL, I misread the
U.of Minnesota article head-
line: changing for charging
of Deuterium into Palladium...

Thanks for your "output". OvS

OvSYukon Man.#13872812/5/05; 09:34:08

I'm so far behind I think I'm
last. al Sark Azim? Who What
Where When. Sounds Turkish to

TownCrierIs $800 Gold On the Way?#13872912/5/05; 10:00:34

(NY Sun) December 5, 2005 --

...Paul Van Eeden, managing partner of Cranberry LLC, an investment company in Bellingham, Wash., specializing in gold and mineral exploration...believes its price will double from here in three to five years. If so, that would surpass gold's all-time high of $850 an ounce in January 1980.

...Frank Holmes, chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, a San Antonio, Texas-based family of mutual funds with $3 billion of assets under management...thinks the $1,000 mark could be reached even sooner, by 2007, he believes. Before then, though, he sees gold easily popping to $800 if there's a spike in inflation or if interest rates peak and fall, which would mean a negative rate of return on cash after inflation and taxes. Based on current supply-demand factors, gold, he argues, should now sell at $600 an ounce.

...Aside from buying bonds, oil-rich countries are increasingly recycling their petro-dollars into gold.

Renewed interest in gold on the part of central banks is seen as yet another recent stimulus for rising purchases of the precious metal. During the 1990s, Mr. Van Eeden points out, central banks were aggressive sellers of gold. In contrast, they're now re-entering the gold market. For example, Russia's central bank recently said it would double its gold reserves from 5% to 10%. Likewise, Argentina last year purchased 42 tons of gold.

Explaining his rationale for an ongoing bull market in gold, Mr. Van Eeden contends the dollar still has a long way to fall on foreign exchange markets. The Federal Reserve's shenanigans can only postpone the inevitable...

...the bottom line is gold is golden again.

^---(from url)---^

Call USAGOLD-Centennial this week for good prices and a consultation to launch your gold ownership program with grace and confidence.

TOLL FREE 1-800-869-5115


TownCrierPrecious metals seen offering big rewards#13873012/5/05; 10:12:09

LONDON (Reuters) - Supply constraints and strong demand will again ensure high returns for investors from commodities in 2006, with precious metals and energy delivering more gains than base metals, JP Morgan said in a report.

The investment bank said this broadly reflected above-trend demand growth, supply constraints and unprecedented flows of money into the sector.

"How these forces will play out in 2006 varies across sectors, but on balance, they favour stable-to-higher energy and precious metal prices and modestly lower base metals," the bank said in its 2006 commodity outlook report.

^---(from url)---^

Some folks are inclined to fret that they missed the $250 low of 2001, and therefore feel that they missed the bus. However, using that same logic, how could they have justified getting on even then when a look further back would reveal that they had already missed the ultra-low $35 bus, circa 1971?

Rather than fixate on the past, these folks would do well to try to come to a better understanding in regard to issues that are looming in our future. Owning gold is an essential element to facing that future as securely and confidently as possible.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.December Buyers' Group -- A "South of the Border" Special!!!#13873112/5/05; 10:18:13

Featuring coins from Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Uruguay!
gold ownership starter kit

FlatlinerGold backed banking and brokerage#13873212/5/05; 10:23:14

Couldn't help but think about naked shorting over the weekend. Seems obvious that this is another industry that will have to be repaired, by the people, in the near future. The people will have to create brokerage house(s) that will not shell or buy securities.

It's that simple. The brokerage house of the future will let you in with a paper certificate that proves ownership. The trading system will be electronic, but you will be able to see the buyers and sellers. At the end of the day, there will be no more shares in the system then at the start of the day. When you leave the system, you will be able to take your certificate. The books of the brokerage house will be audited on a regular basis by an independent auditor and the information will be made public.

Grand idea? I think not.

Like I've mentioned before, tell everyone that you know to buy gold bullion. That gold will be used to rebuild the current failing system of brokerage houses and banks.

For those of you new to my postings, the concept is very simple. The day is coming when holders of gold bullion will organize and create their own corporations. The structure of these corporations will be defined by the group of people that organize them. The people will collectively write the rules and determine the policies of the corporation. Picture, one ounce of gold, for one vote in the corporation.

Building a bank. Those that choose to build a bank will use this gold as the reserve rather then federal notes of any type. The gold will also provide 100% reserve rather then 10% or less. By doing this, the corporation will be independent from the current system. A small amount, say 1 tonne, will be more then enough to create an international corporation.

Building a brokerage firm will be a natural extension of building a bank. Similar technologies are used. Anyone that chooses to think about the marriage will see what I'm talking about here.

If you want to position yourself to fight for Truth and Honesty, you will investigate these words and take the appropriate action. 500 bucks an ounce is relatively cheap here in the US.

I welcome comments regarding the shortcomings of this idea and will post more detailed information in the near future.

TownCrierShould mention that there are only 40 of the Chilean coins available.#13873312/5/05; 10:35:46

If you want to get in on this special, this is not the time to delay.

1-800-869-5115 extension 100


Gandalf the WhiteUS$ Chart is "talking" again today !#13873412/5/05; 10:52:21

LOOKS as if the Beautiful WATERFALLS are back today !

The Hoople(No Subject)#13873512/5/05; 10:56:47

OK, I guess I'll be the first today to duly note gold making a 22 year high- with so little fanfare. Is it fair to say that it should seem a bit more ... ummmm, exciting? CNBC's damning with faint praise method of gold analysis is a hoot, as is the UBS gold forecast of $520 in 06 and $500 in 07. I guess they don't look at 1, 3 or 5 year charts a lot. It must just be their 'hunch'. Looks to me like $520 could be TOMORROW. The short bomb keeps ticking. I for one am excited. Maybe I'm suffering from rational exuberance.
geCarl Swenlin on monthly gold chart#13873612/5/05; 10:57:52

OvSHoople.#13873712/5/05; 11:04:12

What's so exciting about a
22 yrs high when we are
awaiting a 5,000 year high?
Take it easy OvS, ok?

YGMOvS (12/5/05; 09:34:08MT #13873812/5/05; 11:04:21

Some trails are best traveled alone. Nobody up front scaring all the game or waking the Grizzlies, and nobody trailing you to the cache or the hideout :-)
YGMA Picture worth a thousand drools..#13873912/5/05; 11:08:48

Dear Santa...I am having my child write to you as you may have forgotten my last letter 40 yrs ago. Please no more Chocolate filled Gold coins for me. Call Centennial would you pleeeeese!
OvSHere is an interesting chart.#13874012/5/05; 11:10:06

On MarketWatch.
Gold--100 oz. Pit only (Comex) February, 2006 (Comex)

100 oz. trades into the
millions daily, reaching
10 million in one day,
pushing the numbers from
470 to over 500 since the
middle of November.

SmeagolThe Flatliner Company#13874112/5/05; 11:13:11

....ssso, ssomeone like poor Smeagol could buy into your idea of a bank or corporation by sselling (and delivering!)something like a "share-ounce" of physical gold, which would be held for a certain period of time, we assumes? And later we could buy out that same "share" of gold, if needed elswhere?


YGM Mr Clause..#13874212/5/05; 11:13:59

Since you are probably looking at your Coal bin while reading my last letter, I would like to confess it was about 50 yrs ago since I last wrote. Fibbing is bad I know!
OvSYGM#13874312/5/05; 11:14:12

OK. Understood. But just
in case you need someone
to carry your toolbox I'll
be game. OvS

The HoopleOvS#13874412/5/05; 11:20:50

The 5,000 year high would, to paraphrase our President, make me even more exciteder.
Flatliner@The Flatliner Company#13874512/5/05; 11:49:46

Smeagol, you underestimate your wealth.

There are two ways of looking at this concept.

1) You trade your bullion ounce for a share in the corporation. That share entitles you to part ownership of the corporation – just like any honest stock today. With that ownership comes voting rights and profit sharing. You, as the holder, get to elect corporate officials and managers. You, as a shareholder, get to collectively set policy and enforce it through the by-laws of the corporation.

Note that when you trade your gold coin for a share in the company, the value that you hold is your percent of the company. Later, if you want to cash out, you sell your share to someone else.

2) You open an account at the bank with your gold coins. In this case, the bank takes in a gold coin and you, eventually, take out a gold coin. While it lives in the bank, it is counted as reserve, but only during a contracted period of time. In order to not exceed the 100% reserve rule and prevent a run on the bank, a contract must be signed between the owner of the gold coin and the bank. The bank must know how long it can count in as being on reserve. I would probably call this gold leasing. This will not gain the owner voting rights, but interest.

In this second case, the value that you provide is ‘reserve’ for the bank and the power that it holds is the threat of not renewing the contract.

Still seem reasonable?

OvSFlatliner.#13874612/5/05; 12:11:41

You underestimate the legal
and banking brains.

Put me in charge of a gold
bank like you imagine and
YOU become MY customer,
"even I" could show you why
your pockets would remain flat
while mine would be bulging.

A bank is as good as the men
who run it. And every man has
that little devil lurking
within; and should the stars
aline in a particlar pattern,
well, ... OvS

Flatliner@OvS: The Flatliner Company#13874712/5/05; 12:20:52

What if you elected the managers in the corporation and outlined the rules that they have to follow? You might want to think about the separation between owner and manager in this corporation. The manager works for the owners. If the manager does not behave ethically, with the owner's best interest in mind, they get fired.

When the corporation is setup, not only will the owners elect the managers, but they will also outline who it is that will audit the manager's work. Auditors and managers will not be in bed together in this arrangement.

Based on your comment, I would not elect you to run this organization. I'm looking for someone that would uphold the principle of the project.

SmeagolO, no underesstimation, where Precious is concerned! ~8-)#13874812/5/05; 12:26:25

...we were ssimplifying - of course there would be more to it than what we ssaid, otherwise there would be no reason to invest. As far as banks, your concept sseems to resemble that of "real bills" that we have sseen elsewhere - gold used for a specific contracted period.

What prevents the bank from loaning out more than it has on reserve? What recourse is there if it ever does?


Smeagol Value of Flatliner Inc. goldstock#13874912/5/05; 12:30:20

...would Flatliner corporate/bank gold be marked to market?


OvSEasy now, Flatliner.#13875012/5/05; 12:42:12

I didn't say I would do it,
only I could show you how it
could be done and how it is
being done.
Our Constitution has all the
checks and balances written
into it. Does that prevent it
from being circumvented?
Even if you are an accounting
genius, crooked minds will
find a way. And, if, as an
owner you have to check and
double check constantly, you
are not an owner but a working
man. But keep on thinking.
Maybe you'll find a perfect
system, yet. Cheers. OvS

Flatliner@Smealgol: The Flatliner Company#13875112/5/05; 12:43:54

Good questions. I'm glad that you are around today to talk about this.

The ‘real bills’ idea, if I understand what you're saying, carries no real weight in this program – except to benefit the actual share holders.

Is there more to it then what you've seen in my posts? Absolutely! Picture a company that provides checking and saving services for the masses. It also provides loan services where appropriate (or any other banking service). As you know, banks can make profit and many of them do. Just like any company out there, if you hold a share, you get to enjoy those profits.

How do we, as share holders, prevent the bank from loaning out more then it has on reserve? Well, you must understand who owns the bank. The shareholders own the bank – not the managers. The shareholders determine the bank policy. If the managers do not follow what the shareholders want (and outline in the company charter), they get fired.

To the shareholders, if they can get people to save gold on the books of the bank as reserve, it provides more profit for the corporation while providing interest to the saver.

This still making sense?

Oh, it seems to me that the reserve of the bank would be valued by the current trading price of the reserve. So, of course, the gold could be said to be ‘marked to market’.

Flatliner@ Easy now, Flatliner#13875212/5/05; 12:56:06

OvS, You (along with others) are the reason why I post this idea in this forum. Ideas can be good or bad. Ideas sink or float. It is open for debate, and that is what everyone is seeing right now in this forum.

I do truly appreciate your input here. I am of a simple mind and don't want to overlook the obvious. So, if you could, please bring up some of the ways in which this idea falls short. I would hate to see someone setup something like this and then come to find out that the entire process gets circumvented and the company is left high and dry (owners left parted of gold).

You will find that my intention will be to get you onboard with this idea. Actually, I would like to see gold holders around the globe getting in line with this idea AND actually finding that they can implement it. Right now, it is an idea. Hopefully, it will grow with the checks and balances needed to make sure that honesty and integrity can actually work in this corporation while being able to compete in the world markets.

Re-reading your post, I do not expect the owners to have to check and recheck the operations of the company. An independent auditor would help here. Also, the company must be transparent.

FlatlinerDeep seated mistrust#13875312/5/05; 14:13:54

You can read about it in any gold forum or at any site where Goldbugs gather. For one reason or another, people have flocked into gold for protection form risk in financial institutions (including government). The hardcore physical Goldbugs are fundamentally skeptical and can find hundreds of reasons why other people should not be trusted with the Goldbugs money. This skeptical mentality is exactly what's needed for the rebuilding process.

Did all the best thinkers exist hundreds of years ago? Are all possible working scenarios already in play today? If so, those solutions suck and we're all doomed to a life of slavery.

I still believe there is hope. I believe that by implementing a few simple checks, a collective organization can come up with a set of rules that can provide a reasonable checks and balance system. I'm sure it doesn't have to be perfect (nothing is), but it has to be something that can not be abused. I believe therein rests the key to the corporate rules. Most importantly, it has to be something that Goldbugs believe in. If the hearts and minds of Goldbugs can believe in such an idea, it will surely come to life and provide the core of a future monetary system that will be controlled by honest, fearful, Goldbugs.

SmeagolFlatliner Inc., flipsides...#13875412/5/05; 14:19:10

"The shareholders determine the bank policy."

sss... we sees the potential of a problem if the voting ever goes to the side of fractional reserve lending... for example "jusst to get uss through this tight sspot, then we'll go back". There must be no possiblility of this vote succeeding.

...for thought-rumination only...what if the shareholders kept their gold, but contracted between the bank/corporation for the use of It for the time period sspecified, with the gold held by a disinteressted third party (escrow) and available for audit/proof at any time?


Flatliner@ Flatliner Inc., flipsides#13875512/5/05; 14:34:13

I agree. Once you fall into the dark side, you have broken the fundamental promise of the company. The bank should not live on the edge.

Banks are subject to the economic conditions of the services that they provide to the community. Some decisions will fail and have to be written off. But, under all circumstances, the outstanding liabilities must not exceed the reserve.

In other words, if the bank goes into fractional reserve lending, it's now considered insolvent. This is not good. (Even though the current banking system allows this, it doesn't mean that you have to behave that way.)

If this were ever to happen, the bank should/must raise capital either through bullion banking (leasing Freegold) or sell more shares to the public. But, of course, there would have to be shareholder approval (voting) in order to create more shares.

Keep in mind that the goal would be to have at least 100% reserves (in gold). Also, in order to operate in the current system, the bank would have to hold some number of dollars (US bank). Bank to bank settlements must be made in the current trading medium. It may be that the bank would have to hold an additional 10% currency.

Flatliner@ Flatliner Inc., flipsides... rumination#13875612/5/05; 14:52:55

I am sure that you already have a fairly good handle on how banking works, but, I believe that promising to pay banks might not be enough to be able to put it on the books. I know that idea works with the federal government, but, I can not tell if it works for anyone else.

It's my understanding that once you put your money in the bank, you've given up your right to it and taken on the banks promise to pay. In exchange, you get the banking services that they provide and interest.

So, promising to pay the bank at any time vrs providing capital to the bank at startup are areas that still need to be investigated.

TownCrierUPDATE - Over half of the available "South of the Border" has already been sold#13875712/5/05; 14:56:31

The exquisite Chilean coin weighs in at over half an ounce, and the equally remarkable Colombian gold coins are peers of the British Sovereign in both finess and weight. I already snapped up my fair share. You'll want to, too.


R PowellQuiet please,,,POG rising#13875812/5/05; 15:05:42

As did Hoople earlier, I also wonder at the lack of enthusiasm while the POG marches onward + upward. Are we all so sure that it must happen that we yawn when it begins in earnest...after waiting years + years while the POG floundered under $300?

Ge, nice link, there are some other interesting gold articles there, thanks! Blade Erectus, nice to see your post, we need more. YGM, I didn't know you are a closet paper trader! I agree with your thoughts, entirely. Has anyone noticed the clamor of articles + news that the POS at multi-year highs has brought about?

SmeagolUhhh....#13875912/5/05; 15:08:39

"In other words, if the bank goes into fractional reserve lending, it's now considered insolvent. This is not good.

If this were ever to happen, the bank should/must raise capital either through bullion banking (leasing Freegold) or sell more shares to the public."

sss... we would likes to know, how you expect to get potential shareholders to give up their precious to an entity that is conssidered insolvent?
And we all know where leasing ends up. No, going into fractional reserve CANNOT be allowed. EVER.

"But, of course, there would have to be shareholder approval (voting) in order to create more shares."

sss... we thought the shares were to be gold, not 'created'.

Also, the precious the shareholder puts in musst not be "pooled"... and turned into large bars, as ssome other sysstems do. What the shareholder puts in, they can get back or renew their contract.


SmeagolAin't it great?#13876012/5/05; 15:31:44

"Are we all so sure that it must happen that we yawn when it begins in earnest..."


Smeagol509..... Do I hear 600?#13876112/5/05; 15:32:43

Flatliner@ Uhhh....#13876212/5/05; 15:35:22

Today, all banks are insolvent. If you have an account in a bank that is practicing fractional reserve banking, you have an account in an insolvent bank. Also, all banks are fractional reserve banks.

We're stuck, unless we can come up with an alternative.

What I would like to know is why anyone would give up their hard earned dollar to a bank today? Look at where it has led us. Our current situation is at risk of breaking. We must rebuild an alternative that isn't fractional and one that is not built upon debt.

About the shares in the corporation. With this issue, all members have to be sold on the idea that pooling coins and giving the corporation ownership is a good idea. I'm sure that idea sends shivers up and down your spine, but, if an honorable solution can be found in which Goldbugs can enforce it, we will see honor return to the banking system – at least one company.

So, make no mistake here, a Goldbug will have to trade one coin for one vote in the corporation. The corporation will own the gold and the Goldbugs will own the corporation. The Goldbugs will choose what the corporation does with the gold. Shares in the company can be traded to different Goldbugs, but there will be a fixed number that will not change over time. The value of that share will be reflected in that percent portion of the company (profit sharing).

Now, why would someone give up their gold into a system like this? It's really more about bringing honesty and integrity back into the banking system than anything else. Today banks own people. I would like to see that change. If it takes 25,000 tonnes of gold to build a banking system that people can believe in, that means that there will be 800 million unique votes in the system. That's a lot of people watching the banks and making sure that they stay transparent. But, I don't believe that it will take that much. I believe 1 tonne will be a good start.

TownCrierFlatliner, deja vu#13876312/5/05; 15:43:16

There's a classic scene in the movie 'Groundhog Day' where cameraman Larry (played by Chris Elliot) speaks of weatherman Phil Connors (played by Bill Murray), "He's out of his gourd!"

Just watching the latest I think I've nearly reached that point.

In the archives you'll see that variations on your scheme have been earnestly floated before, but time and time again they always come up "short", in more ways than one.

What is it that you don't like about straightforward OWNERSHIP of gold as a tangible savings asset that you'd work so hard to connive such elaborate ways to obscure and suppress its value?


Flatliner@Flatliner, deja vu#13876412/5/05; 15:52:47

I wish they were smaller! There must be millions of words hidden here over the years. I would love to be able to find the tracks of others that have presented similar ideas. It… is hard to find.

What do you mean "What is it that you don't like about straightforward OWNERSHIP of gold as a tangible savings asset that you'd work so hard to connive such elaborate ways to obscure and suppress its value?" I like gold ownership. I see it as a store of wealth. I believe that gold has great value. But I don't see any conniving on my part. Please explain.

FlatlinerWhy did the other ideas fail?#13876512/5/05; 16:02:04

By the way, I loved the movie Ground Hog Day.
CometoseFlatliner/ GOLD POOL BANKING #13876612/5/05; 16:05:42

I think that what you have in mind in reference to your last post is acually in fact

HOW ECONOMIES get rebuilt after the dishonest bankers cause a collapse......

On a financial level not that much different from
instigating a WAR (to make money) and then getting in the BUSINESS of REBUILDING (to make money ) after the war is over...........

Many ways to achieve this type of goal....

Bank is going insolvent because of bad real estate loans held in the community .....
You loan the failing bank your gold for a percentage ownership in the bank and Prime Liquidated Real Estate the bank offloads to you at 10 cents on the dollar.

With new Gold coheld by you and the bank in fractional reserve.....the bank can now make new loans to going concerns from economic bottom ...
As the bank shares recover and grow ; you can keep your bank shares or sell them and back to the bank and reclaim your gold .....

WIN WIN WIN WIN WIN .......!!!!!!!!!

Any bankers in a fix who haven't the insight to hedge against a future economic disaster should begin thinking now about such an eventuality to limit the ramifications of what might become such a disaster . THEY SAY IT CAN'T happen this time and THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT.....
THE BUSINESS CYCLE IS DEAD.....We might have to wait and see about that ........

Such a future Banking Forray could be named CPM GOLDBUG BANKER'S ASSOCIATION. That organization could loan money to HOTEL/Casino (OVERBUILT) CONCERNS which might be going upside down ........ Perhaps they will be also selling for 10 cents on the dollar.......

TucoNew Orleans Mortgage Payments!?#13876712/5/05; 16:08:12

There was a short story on CNN concerning the Federal Government paying a year's worth of mortgage payments, interest free, for a few thousand homeowners in New Orleans. The home owners were obligated to pay back the money at the end of the mortgage. The idea was that the homeowners would use the money that would have normally gone for the mortgage to pay for repairs. The pictures that went along with the story showed homes that would need more than one year's worth of mortgage money to fix. Did anybody else see this story? If true, is the Federal Government being compassionate or are they saving some lending institution? I wonder if all the mortgages are from the same institution! More questions than answers!!
Flatliner@Flatliner/ GOLD POOL BANKING#13876812/5/05; 16:18:29

Or, maybe, the bank will pay dividends in gold.

I'd still like to find out why the other ideas died. That is puzzling.

TownCrierFlatliner, the problem#13876912/5/05; 16:21:02

To be completely candid, I chose "connive" to ensure that I captured your full attention, if only just momentarily.

I could have more accurately made a metaphorical comment about having children playing in a room full of loaded guns, but I note that OvS has on two occasions today already made that similar point.

Personally, I would not propose a design to put a man on the moon without the thousands of hours of diligent study into rocket science and related physics. This, however, is very nearly what you appear to be doing, albeit in Another field. Please appreciate, therefore, that the nature of the problem is not so easily conveyed and resolved as you would like to have it with your kind invitation for me or anyone else more qualified than I to "Please explain." Most simply put, you've thousands of hours of research awaiting you.


OvSMy Dear Flatliner,#13877012/5/05; 16:49:32

I think that you are:
One: a young fellow, or
Two: an old fellow with
limited experience;
Three: not really such a
bad fellow.
Therefore, being a push-
over for such a person, I
thought maybe I'll give
you a hand on how to start
a bank. Results:
Google gave me 1 - 10 of
about 16,600,000 for how
to start & register a bank.
Fellow, you are on your own.
Very sorry. OvS

RimhTC, Flatliner...#13877112/5/05; 16:52:26

Simply put, A gold coin in my hand is worth more to me than 100 "paper" gold coins in the bank, any bank , and no amount of documentation or bank policy would change that.
TownCrierRimh, to that I say...#13877312/5/05; 17:01:22

Beautiful. So simply said and done, your in-hand 'system' works as near perfectly as any human has a right to hope for.



Bulldoggold and canadian dollar#13877412/5/05; 17:06:58

With this last run-up in gold, gold has now taken off against the Canadian dollar. During the period of my acquisitions from 1998 to present, there were a few times when I could buy 2 Maple Leafs for less than $C1,000, but I generally paid about $C500+ for each Maple Leaf. The prime reason of course is that the exchange rate went from low 60's to present .86 to the U.S.$. Today I can purchase 1 ML for about $C625. I would expect that the higher cost of gold in U.S. funds will in the future be offset somewhat by an increasing $Can.
David LinkleySolid bull market action#13877512/5/05; 17:07:09

The current trading in gold reminds me of the recent run up in other metals such as copper and crude oil. The Wall Street skeptics paraded out on CNBC repeatedly say regarding gold (and other commodities), they can't keep doing that. Or don't buy now, it's a top. All these hard assets do is continue to grind higher as physical demand relentlessly overpowers paper. This is one hell of a powerful bull market. IMO - buy the corrections. The smart money in the world is.
Flatliner@ Flatliner, the problem and My Dear Flatliner#13877612/5/05; 17:11:46

"Connive" was a well chosen and I appreciate your candor. Your "man on the moon" analogy is also well taken. I'm sure that you would not want to be the first astronaut. I can't help but smile at that thought because I'm sure that there is not a forum member among us that would be that first astronaut.

I appreciate the time you have allowed for my postings in your forum. Would you still be willing to discuss the shortcomings of such an idea? It… would be most helpful. I would be most thankful for the time and feedback.

Yes, I'm aware that there could be thousands of hours of research to do on this topic. At the same time, there may have been thousands of hours of research that has already transpired that has seeded me with this idea.

Think what you will of my age or intellect and be careful if you judge a book by its cover. Who was it that pointed out that the emperor had no clothes?

All it is not what it seems in this great world of ours. I will tread carefully and die for honor.

As with being on my own, I do not believe this is the case. I believe that there are many people looking for an opportunity to contribute to something ethical. Those people will find these words and purchase gold with hope. They will purchase, not out of greed or out of investment positioning, or because a coin-in-hand is better, but out of hope of being able to get involved with something that is much bigger then any one person could build on their own.

If there are readers that dream of such changes call USAGold and order one gold eagle. Tell them what that one eagle means to you and how you will use it.

Meanwhile, I will continue to research and answer any questions of me here (as permitted). Until I find the fatal flaws in this design, I will keep searching, always questioning.

WhitewaterwomanAmazing action...#13877712/5/05; 17:16:54

...when I won an ebay auction about a week-and-a-half ago for a 100-oz silver bar, and paid $868, including shipping, I thought, "40 cents over spot...that's OK." Well, I haven't even gotten the bar yet, and here I see just now that it looks like I'll be getting it AT SPOT or lower!

Yes, Gandalf, amazing waterfalls. To my newbie mind, the recent unhooking of gold from the dollar says that either the dollar is falling fast from reserve currency status (and gold is no longer priced in dollars), or that the invisible hand is working a double shift to keep the dollar up and gold from going even higher.

SmeagolIt's not the mechanics, precious...#13877812/5/05; 17:24:05

"Until I find the fatal flaws in this design, I will keep searching, always questioning."

...the problem lies in the human heart, not the plan.


FlatlinerIs there no one that can revive a flatline? #13877912/5/05; 17:28:06

Fish for Smeagol.
SmeagolOn the rising price of It#13878012/5/05; 17:33:42

We assumes the "freegold" planners had ssome ssort of...sss...idea, what levels It would reach, priced in currencies. It looks to us... that the ascent has been more or less orderly - sso far. Are there limiting mechanisms in place in the event of a real "frenzy" sstarting, as some expect, as invesstors and sspeculators pile on? Is there any "damping" to be applied when It nears overshoot?


SmeagolReviving a flatline#13878112/5/05; 17:36:49

There is only One we knows of, who can do that.
CoBra(too)Bullion vs its Miners!#13878212/5/05; 17:46:13

I'm starting to find the argument ludicrous.

Both have their time - and bullion wouldn't be around without the miners.

The reverse seems ludicrous too. Even if some seem to believe in the fact that the golden calf came straight from heaven; Uh, oh the opposite may have been the truth!

Now it does seem that not enough bullion is around to fill the appetite of demand(ers). The CB's are stressing the above ground gold they hold is sufficient to suppress the POG forever. Is that so? Is the big question - as the real holdings (in the vaults) are more than questioned. And why, therefor has the POG doubled in the last few years and now has broken out vis a vis all currencies.

OK, I'll admit it's not only an annual supply/demand shortfall - it's in reality a breakdown in our global currency and maybe longer term economic system. A system based on perpetual growth. Without growth the system has no chance survive, as credit born by debit has to exponentially grow in order to meet ends; The reverse effect of compounded interest - or as our friend Jim Willie would probably say - the Jackass Kick to monetary oblivion.

Well, I guess we need both. The mere question is opportune timing. Being in Bullion, as I have since 1999 again as well as in mining shares I have added to my bullion stash substantially via - yes mining shares. The last two years, of course were lousy for a mere gold - (oil, gas, uranium, copper, platinum and even steel, cement and some grains being the exception?) mining investor.

As a contrarian - at least I'm learning slowly in my advanced years to follow my own adapted rules - I strongly would suggest that mining shares have a lot to make up for; And they will ... while Gold and Silver will make further advances - the miners will again have their day in the sun.

As a small reminder - the POG has yet to make up for a long term bear market and is hardly anywhere close to the all time high of 850 $ in 1980 - in constant Dollars that is.

Constant Dollars? - An ever faster depreciating "numeraire" - picked that up somewhere - is just about a token for other fiat papers, losing value in almost lockstep. That's called in the final end ... competitive devaluation.

Looks like the competition to gain the upper hand in our so called post-capitalistic system ends in the devaluation of all our economic, social and lastly ethical achievements.

Jingle Bells - all the way-
to ... I don't know - do you?

PS: I know ... Philosophos mansisses.

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#13878312/5/05; 17:55:16">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

MONDAY Market Excerpts

Gold reaching 23-yr highs, seen strong ahead

December 5 (from Reuters) -- Gold finished near a 23-year high on Monday after another round of fund buying spurred by worries over inflation and by a strong appetite for commodity investments.

Spot gold touched $508.90 a troy ounce in late New York trading -- its latest in a series of highs not seen since February 1983. Gold reached $509.20 in February 1983. Anything above that level would take the metal to its highest since January 1980, when it hit a record $850.

"The market is maybe not quite as euphoric as it was last week when we finally broke $500, but it is prompting a lot of interest that has been reported ***around the world*** and is attracting fresh buying," said Frederic Panizzutti, analyst with Swiss-based MKS Finance.

Paul Merrick, vice-president of commodities at RBC Capital Markets, said the strength of the market over the past three weeks was very unusual and uniformly strong across trading zones. "There are very good reasons for what is happening and there is concerted buying by investors out there."

At the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, February gold futures shot up $5.60 to end at $512.60.

Healthy demand, stagnating supply, a recent dearth of forward selling by gold miners and more orderly sales from central banks have all aided the rally.

But momentum has really built up since 2004, when commodities became an attractive target for investors' cash as this relatively forgotten asset class outperformed more traditional sectors such as stocks and bonds.

Speculators have bought spot gold and futures, specialist investment products and shares in mining firms, which has made a big impact on prices due to the relatively small size of commodities compared with other asset classes.

Bullion's dollar-performance has been matched elsewhere, with gold prices in a range of other currencies at multidecade or all-time highs.

"We think the key reason for gold's rally has been its impressive technical trends in a variety of currencies (particularly euro and yen), with inflationary concerns a post-rationalisation for buying gold," Barclays Capital said.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---

SmeagolOf guns and gold#13878412/5/05; 17:58:29

Ssir Town Crier: "I could have more accurately made a metaphorical comment about having children playing in a room full of loaded guns, but I note that OvS has on two occasions today already made that similar point."

that reminds uss... of this ssnip we saw in another forum:

"To turn in your gold in the face of a confiscation is the same as you handing your gun to someone that does not have one that is demanding you give yours to them - so they can shoot you!"



CoBra(too)UH;#13878512/5/05; 17:59:04

Pretty sure OvS will chime in and tell me the first part of the quote is:
"Si tacuisses ...

Damn; I'm not sure how to spell greek - and as such I'll go back to early retirement.


White HillsDollar and gold#13878612/5/05; 18:01:46

I have looked in the archives to find the quote from Another or FOA, I don't remember which ,about watching the price of gold and the dollar rising together. Perhaps MK would remember it as it was in the book that I bought from USA Gold containing all of the Posts from Another. If any will remember they were amazing posts that began to explain what was happening to gold. I think what we are watching is gold devaluing the dollar as more and more people move their wealth into gold and other hard assets. It has started as a trickle that will soon become a flood and perhaps put at an end to the current monetary system. I have no doubt that a currency reform is coming and that the planning already exists for it. It will be brutal and swift catching most people by surprise except those of us that have prepared by buying gold and taking other measures as described by Black Blade. The Gold Rush for 2006 is on.

MK, I loaned out that book and never got it back. The guy I loaned it to died and his widow could't find it. It was a paperback and if it is still in print or available I would like to have another copy. White Hills

GoldiloxNew Orleans mortgages#13878712/5/05; 18:09:19

@ Tuco,

I would be willing to make a small wager that the mortgages in question have already been bundled into "mortgage bonds" or some other form of derivative, and the bailout recipient is actually Fannie or Freddie!

The insurance companies are trying to renege on their coverages, citing "Act of God" exemption, so the homeowners are screwed anyway. If the observers sugggesting that seven equally spaced levee breaches look a bit too unnatural ever get their day in court, "God" just might be exonerated as the real perpetrator of New Orleans' destruction. If that day comes, 911 investigations will be no more than a pre-season warm-up exercise.

The Donald is licking his chops to get his mitts on those foreclosures to build the new Las Vegas South, and George and Bill have collected $400M that so far has not been distributed to any "victims". They're all just waiting for the proper "reconstruction" effort, and Kelo vs. New London sets the precedent for property confiscation in the name of "public good".

Isn't it amazing how well the pieces all fit together?

Flatliner@ Reviving a flatline#13878812/5/05; 18:17:32

Yes… I have seen the mourning here. It is unfortunate that the teacher has moved on.

What was his intent? Was it to tell everyone what the next big investment was? Or was it to tell the world how the game will be played?

Think long and hard about it.

White HillsGold#13878912/5/05; 18:22:39

As the POG rises it has given me a new case of gold fever. I am presently getting together my gold mining equipment and bringing it all up to 1st class shape. As soon as the weather allows I will be going out into the Arizona desert and prospecting for gold. It is all over the place. Finding it is no problem, the problem is finding where mother nature has hidden it in amounts large enough to make it worthwhile. If I was the kind of person that bought stocks I certainly would be buying any that had to do with recreational mining. A lot of people will become interested as the POG rises. Buy gold! If you can't buy it go dig up some yourself. What a country! White Hills

PS. when it hits $1000.00 per oz I will camp out there.

R PowellDavid Linkley#13879012/5/05; 18:34:59

Your words.....

"The current trading in gold reminds me of the recent run up in other metals such as copper and crude oil. The Wall Street skeptics paraded out on CNBC repeatedly say regarding gold (and other commodities), they can't keep doing that. Or don't buy now, it's a top. All these hard assets do is continue to grind higher as physical demand relentlessly overpowers paper. This is one hell of a powerful bull market. IMO - buy the corrections. The smart money in the world is."

May I agree + add a thought or two, fwiw?

The copper market has been amazingly resilient in that downturns have been very brief, even though sometimes severe. Also copper has been and remains a market in reverse contango, why? Perhaps, (I really don't know for sure, of course) it simply has not come to terms with demand overpowering existing supply and has not yet realized (price balanced) the fact that the spot and near term prices reflect a real supply/demand situation rather than a speculative price runup. The market players are still looking for a top. Does the market think supply will immediately increase or demand fall so that the future month prices are correct and/or the near term prices are too high? Will precious metals become markets in backwardation? Spot coffee prices in Brazil are about 12 cents higher than the near term paper contract, they have been for some time but, there are various grades of coffee. Copper spot is the same, higher than paper. Will gold + silver spot prices exceed paper contract prices? Are the present price moves in all the metals the result of strong world demand? One metals' analyst has been recommending shorting copper for some time now justified by saying that the car industry is slowing down. Copper has gone steadily up all the while. Meanwhile corn has been selling in the physical market well under the paper price.

I wouldn't put too much stock in anything CNBC (the peoples' stock picking channel) says about commodities. They simply do not, I believe, take the time to follow these markets. Almost all guest commodity analysts are technical traders, lacking fundamental knowledge. I believe they still view gold as a commodity that trades inversely to dollar strength, a safe haven temporary spot for cash, or an inflation indicator, nothing more or less. They refuse to consider, as you so nicely stated, that "physical demand relentlessly overpowers paper." By paper here, I mean the present market price, which always includes speculation, as it must, being simply the combined total investment sentiment of market players, whether hedgers, large speculative funds, producers or small punters.

I read a market direction opinion recently from an analyst who advised, (roughly paraphrased), "disregard price, it is price direction alone that matters. The price can never become either too high or too low." Are metals "overbought"?

I keep looking for confirmation that metals are indeed in a long term secular bull, in which we can safely follow your advice to "buy the corrections". Fwiw, I agree. The chart readers are offering various opinions as usual, with some admitting that the new high prices have placed metals in what they like to call "uncharted territory." Maybe new highs beget new highs more often than not.
Any other signs, evidence that the bull is in control? Thoughts?

SundeckInflation-adjusted POG#13879112/5/05; 18:48:19

BB and CB2 et al.,

Established housing prices have increased about seven times since 1980, pretty-much world-wide.

Since 1971, they have increased, as a general rule, around forty to fifty times.

Since 1971, oil has increased in price by about thirty times, trailing housing, but comparable nonetheless...

Meanwhile gold, since 1971, has increased a measly fourteen times in price. If it were to catch up with housing, it would not be unreasonable to see prices around $1400 - $1800 per ounce.

That, of course, assumes the US-dollar avoids the which case the gains will be much greater in dollar terms.

Gains in the currencies of other countries depend upon how ardently the monetary authorities of those other countries seek to preserve the "value" of their currencies vis-a-vis real things (like housing, oil and gold) or un-real things (like the US-dollar)...which is NOT VERY, if history is anything to go by.

I prefer to think of housing as a more reliable indicator of the depreciation of the currency (inflation) than arbitrary things like the CPI which is so easy to manipulate. Established housing is a tangible fundamental for human societies and still probably the most enduring (fixed) expression of wealth and aspiration. While the detailed character of housing evolves, its underlying functionality is very stable...hence its utility in determining the relative "value" of any currency for which it may be exchanged.

Similar to gold in effect...although the concepts of "housing wealth" and "gold wealth" probably lie on different strands of the human psyche...


R PowellCoBra2#13879212/5/05; 18:50:27

In my best William Shatner (priceline dot com saleman) impersonation.....

Buy or hold both...BOTH.... physical....and paper assets..!?
What a novel concept!

SmeagolNo reason for desspair, Ssir Flatliner!#13879312/5/05; 19:01:39 We likes your posts, courtesy and energy. We all learn more whenever anyone posts...we are all on this Trail together.

Try thiss link. Ssss! If you feel a little ssteamrolled, WE ended up on the other side of THIS man's pen as a newbie here! Ai! Ow! What an education! And we are glad of it!


(p.s. we were not referring to the one called Another, in our msg#: 138781)

SmeagolA morsel from that link....#13879412/5/05; 19:11:28

"The Bank of Amsterdam was said to work well for a full century, with a man's deposits remaining his on actual deposit until such time as he transferred the money in payment to another man's account. The money (Gold) was not lent out, and so when Louis XIV's French army approached Amsterdam in 1672, causing the depositors to rush to the Bank in fear for the safety of their money, those panicky depositors all discovered that their money was indeed on hand for immediate withdrawal. The fear-induced bank run gave evidence of yet another universal truth about the nature of mankind--that when satisfied as to the apparent safety and availability of their deposits, they no longer desire to follow-through with the actual withdrawal of their funds, remaining content to let the bank serve as the guardian. And so we have the seeds of the eventual fall of the Bank of Amsterdam, and many thousands of its successors. The Bank's ownership by the City of Amsterdam gave rise to close associations with the Dutch East India Company by virtue of the same men often involved in the governing or management of both operations. Due to the nature of their business, when literally waiting for their ship to come in, even while still a solid company with solid profits, the East India Company would from time to time need a short term provision of credit. In a precursor of what modern banks would come to call their bread-and-butter business, the Bank began to provide these loans to the Company out of depositors' accounts. When business profits turned south for the East India Company in the late 1700's as many ships and cargo were lost in the war, the loans increased; the City government itself also came to rely on the bank for loans.

During the first century of operation, merchants preferred to receive payment in bank deposits instead of the uncertain quality of the coin of the day. But as the loans of the Bank increased, and as the Bank began to put limits on withdrawals or transfers to accounts at other banks, merchants began to cast a wary eye upon payment made in bank deposits, and they raised their prices to reflect this growing uncertainty, discounting the value of the bank money. As you might expect, when a bank can't be counted on to reliably provide your money on demand, its days are numbered. And so it was for the Bank of Amsterdam--the doors were closed in 1819. It should also come as no surprise that similar scenes were played out many times on a smaller scale by the metal smiths mentioned earlier. After being sought out for the security of their strongboxes, and after a period of reliable service, many smiths would observe the willingness of their depositors and citizens in general to leave the Gold under lock and key, opting to circulate the receipts of ownership instead. The more unscrupulous among them would come to grant loans to others for profit, or else grant loans to themselves through the issue of receipts for more Gold than they held. When rumor brought about sufficient alarm to bring in an abundance of receipts for redemption all at once, the game was up and justice was swift--though to be sure, this righting of the wrong on the inevitable day of reckoning was COMPLETELY unsatisfactory to the good citizens left holding worthless Gold-receipts from the bank after the Gold ran out."

Flatliner@ No reason for desspair, Ssir Flatliner!#13879512/5/05; 19:20:33

I too, have read this posting. A snippet: "I still say that there is no economic reason, no justification for central banks at all. There is no economically useful purpose for national currencies. I will go further and state that the purpose of central banks holding gold is so their people remain beholden to the state and the bank cartels it has chartered. The best thing for the CBs and treasuries to do is to unload their gold and cease participation in the financial markets. Individuals and private organizations should hold their gold and trade its receipts, to lend and to borrow it."

I also believe that we need to cut the tie to the Central Bank. If a bank is seeded with enough reserve, there is no need to require the services of a Central Bank. If the bank holds more then 100% reserve, it will never need a lender of last resort. And, most likely, the Central Bank will do everything to make sure that no other bank lends to this independent bank.

Also, Central Banks do hold gold, but more importantly, they control the paper market. Thus, any bank trying to be independent will need to come up with a significant reserve as long as the paper is controlled. But, look out, if the paper burns! There will be a new bank in town that is independent.

155,000 tonnes exist, 30,000 tonnes are known to exist in Central Banks, thus 125,000 tonnes has already been set free so banks can come along and fill this void.

Just think, if the bank has a reserve of gold, it will not be indebted to the Central Bank.

Smeagol, thank you for the support. I will once again read the words that you have pointed me to and relate it once again to this company concept that I've posted here.

As it stands now, the only problem that needs to be overcome exist in the human mind and heart.

FlaccusThese discussions, here and there,#13879612/5/05; 19:22:20

about gold going to the moon.

The pitter-patter of fools!!

Take fully into account the nature of fiat money.
C'mon. Do it on your own.
Put aside the promise of profits.
The name of the game is to be among the last left standing.
Take away the physical. Take the promise to pay only after THAT is in hand.
Not the other way around.

Gold stocks?
In the same league with any other stock.
How many have been left behind thinking they owned gold when all they owned was another piece of paper -- another promise to pay.

Wake-up the new reality.

The definition of a gold miner?

"A liar standing next to a hole in the ground." Samuel Clemens

SmeagolBanks are unnecessary...#13879712/5/05; 19:36:31

... according to what you ssaid you read (snip from your snip):

"Individuals and private organizations should hold their gold and trade its receipts, to lend and to borrow it."

There, precious... is one ssolution, which we thinks you hinted at in your earlier posts (corporations). You don't need a bank, central or not, to loan wealth. Choose to rissk your own... or that of those in a private business if they so votes. No bank need apply.


Ned@ WhiteWaterWomen#13879812/5/05; 19:41:08

Hope you get your bar !

The definition of 'delivery' starts NOW !


Futures contracts become increasingly short during times of "duress".

Have a golden day.

SmeagolThat's the sspirit, Ssir Flatliner....#13879912/5/05; 19:41:48

"As it stands now, the only problem that needs to be overcome exist in the human mind and heart."

THAT... is the noblesst Quesst!


PRITCHORE - - On going Boring Own Bank Wanks etal - - -#13880012/5/05; 19:47:05

Please don't encourage him - - this serial poster -- I preferable not to have to scroll & I hate seeing wasted bandspace - -if yoa'll know what I'm getting at.

flatline indeed zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

SmeagolSilver wages#13880112/5/05; 20:06:11

Ssnips from:
A Day's Wage for a Silver Dime:
Fact or Fiction?

by David Zurbuchen

"This purpose of this article is to examine the veracity of the claim made in the first line of my debut article "Silver: A Rare Opportunity"

First, Some Helpful Conversion Factors, all of which I have made use of in my calculations below:

1 troy ounce = 480 grains
1 troy ounce = 31.1 grams (grams not grains)
1 dollar (the original at least) = 371.25 grains pure silver*
Meaning that $1 was equivalent to 0.77 troy ounces and 23.9 grams
*Coinage Act of 1792 Sec. 9

It is perfectly understandable that those who read that a mere dime used to be equivalent to a day's wage are skeptical of the claim. I certainly was, and that is why I have set out to prove my previous assertion either right, wrong, or somewhere in between.

I may have had a bias when I began this article, but I inevitably had to compromise and submit to historical data rather than the hearsay that I had previously relied upon.

What follows are 4 sources of information, all of which present different wage rates for skilled and unskilled workmen around the year 1900. I have included all the links so that you can easily verify the information, together with my calculations."

"That being the case, I apologize for what now appears to be an exaggeration, that one dime could pay for one day of labor just one hundred years ago. I therefore amend my previous assertion, now maintaining that an average day's wage 100 years ago was closer to $1."


(now, now, Ssir Pritcho... many don't know what anyone is getting at here, sso we helps a bit, even if we has to scroll more too (whew! that's ssoooo tiring! )

YGMFlaccus .... Suffering Sour Grapes on Gold Shares?#13880212/5/05; 20:47:48

Sure Twains one liner about a miner hold a little truth and it is funny. Probably wouldn't be appreciated tho by all the miners of the world who toil and even die to produce the Yellow metal you so cherish. No Miners, NO GOLD! Especially the over 4000 S Africans who have perished in the deeps of the reefs bringing the world our Gold to buy. Paper promises? You mock paper yet YOU neeed paper promises to buy YOUR Gold! Twain loved paper as his ink splashed on it made him famous and reasonably wealthy. Paper has it's place in Fiat and other uses in this life and there is no denying or escaping that fact. Pitter patter of fools are those who only view things from one side of equations IMHO. Foolish is the person who thinks money cannot be made from paper and exchange it for real Gold. Some of us can have the best of both worlds. As I stated earlier, Gold is to hold, stocks are to be sold. Also fortune favors the bold, and we don't all have Dr or Lawyer degrees to become rich. To each his own I believe.
OvS cb2#13880312/5/05; 20:58:57

Your Greek has a Roman twang
to it. Your spelling is almost
correct Latin:
Si tacuisses philosophus mansisses.
"If you would have kept silent,
you could have remained a philosopher".
(As you have undoubtedly noticed,
cb2 gets into this self-depricating
mood whenever there is a new moon).
Re our last encounter:
Kant say what you meant,
but Nietzsche it was not.
Now let me go back to my new interest:
Ephemeral Artistic Light Sculptures!?!

Smeagol"Ephemeral Artistic Light Sculptures"#13880412/5/05; 21:11:06

sss...would that be...Fireworks? ~8-)
YGMSmeagol.. Ephemeral Light Sculptures#13880512/5/05; 21:16:43

Laser light show?
SmeagolYes, and those too!#13880612/5/05; 21:35:12

David Linkley@R Powell#13880712/5/05; 21:56:07

My fundamental formula for this commodities and gold bull market is very simple. Years of neglecting new sources of production (uneconomical in the 80's & 90's), irresponsible governments creating mind blowing amounts of money, and integrating over 2.5 billion people into the world economy who want a higher standard of living. Money has been shifting into hard assets since 2000 or earlier but it will take years to raise production just to reach an equilibrium point for many in demand resources. Just look at an IEA spreadsheet for daily crude demand from 1980 through 2003 comparing the US vs. Asia. Demand in the US rose 16-17% during that time while Asia's rose 100%. We are in for some very wild rides.
OvSFireworks?#13880812/5/05; 21:58:56

Smeagol, you give me some-
thing to think about:

Works of Fire, frozen on
a breath of silver halide.

You heard it first on USAgold.
Cheers, OvS

GoldiloxNationalize resources?#13880912/6/05; 06:13:54


There has also been afoot for some time the "debt-for-nature" scheme proposed at the 4th World Wilderness Conference held in Denver, Colorado in 1987 of forcing nations to transfer national parks and undeveloped areas (up to 30% of the world's wilderness - 12 billion acres) to a World Wilderness Trust or similar U.N. agencies (and thereby effectively losing sovereignty over part of their national territory) which would function as a collection agent for the IMF, the World Bank and private banks.
It would operate as follows:

Creditor banks transfer 3rd world debt to the World Conservation Bank (a new bank with a "soft" name) thereby relieving the debtor nations of their debt to the original banks;

at full book value (even though these loans now have market values as low as 6-25 cents on the dollar and cost the banks nothing to create due to fractional reserve banking - the legally required reserve ratio on such loans being typically 0%);

in return for such debt relief, the debtor nations would transfer to the World Wilderness Trust natural resource assets of equivalent value (World Heritage sites such as the Amazon basin or the gold-laden hills around Yellowstone will likely be included at some point);

The World Wilderness Trust will eventually allow development by the World Conservation Bank in order to pay the private banks full value for the transferred debts.


This site has been posted before, but a second reading in light of our recent discussions got me thinking . . . how could they NOT nationalize resources in the ground?

GoldiloxWant Debt Relief? Prohibit Fractional Reserve Banking!#13881012/6/05; 06:19:54


Absent authentic monetary reform, debtor nations unable to pay their debts will ultimately be left with five (5) options:
1.- To increase exports in order to increase foreign exchange revenues.
Where this is possible, it transforms the citizens into de facto workers for foreign banks which siphon the national production out of the country, further impoverishing the people.
Increased commodity production saturates markets and reduces prices, partially or wholly defeating the purpose. In any case this is rarely possible, as exports have usually been maximized already.

2. - This necessitates submitting to the IMF-imposed rape of their national resources and the starvation of their people while surrendering their national sovereignty by degrees.
This is the option recently taken by the S.E. Asian nations (South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines).
This is, of course, a closed loop back to debt. Of the $123 billion IMF S.E. Asian bailout, Chase Manhattan bank is in line to receive $32 billion; J.P. Morgan for $23 billion; Bank of America for $16 billion. This $71 billion will never reach S.E. Asia, as it is transferred from the U.S. Treasury, to the IMF, to the Wall Street banks.

The IMF bailout saves their bad loans to these nations. Courtesy of the U.S. government, some such foreign debt is being transferred ("monetized") to U.S. taxpayers for payment via increased taxes and inflation.

Interestingly, Congressional leaders were told by the Clinton Administration that unless they agreed to fund the IMF bailout of banks which make loans to South Korea, there was danger of invasion of South Korea by North Korea — war blackmail.

3. - Unilaterally to repudiate their foreign debts.
This action incurs the danger of being followed by trade strangulation (necessitating barter agreements in foreign trade, as was successfully conducted by the Axis powers and later by Rhodesia), and military invasion (e.g. witness the fate of these defaulter nations: Haiti, Somalia, Iraq, the former Yugoslavia [Bosnia et al.] invaded by U.S. and U.N. armed forces acting as unwitting, de facto mercenaries):
Tote dat bar! Lif dat bale! Try to buck the system, and you land in jail!

It is no easy task to break free of debt, nor of the international banking system. Lacking preponderant military strength, a well-armed populace (like the Swiss) is a necessary precaution to exercise this option successfully, if indeed it is still possible.

4. - To seek legal repudiation of their foreign debts, based on the doctrine of "odious debts".
This is an established international law principle permitting debt repudiation when a government incurs a debt without the informed consent of its people, and which is not used in the legitimate interest of the State.
Ironically, this doctrine was first used by the U.S. to repudiate Cuba's debts after the U.S. took Cuba from Spain. The jurist who coined the phrase "the doctrine of odious debts", held that debts incurred to subjugate a people or to colonize them should also be considered odious.

This doctrine shifts responsibility to the lenders, neither to corrupt nor to utilize corrupted politicians and governments to initiate loans, and allows collection from the despots who wasted the funds — both desirable changes. Of course, an independent, uncorrupted judiciary is a prerequisite to obtaining legal repudiation with this legal theory, which is extremely unlikely when corrupted politicians appoint politically subservient judges to the World Court who would hear such cases.

A national legal repudiation on this ground would be a good start though, and could be at least legally valid, but might be a practical nullity, resulting in the same consequences as a unilateral repudiation without a recognized legal basis (Option 3 above).

5. To issue sufficient quantities of the national money specifically to retire the international debt.
Since most revenues obtained from foreign loans are shortly spent (often wasted), partly domestically and partly in foreign countries, the results are usually inflationary (in both the country of origin — usually the U.S., and in the recipient country), partially multiplied by private domestic (and foreign) banks through fractional reserve banking loans.
Therefore, while issuing sufficient new money to retire foreign debt would work, it would also result in hyperinflation where the foreign debt is great in relation to the economy, particularly due to the subsequent multiplier effect of any high-powered money in a fractional reserve banking system. This ruinous negative effect has been felt by numerous nations which inflated to retire foreign debt.

Of course, the technical solution to avoiding such hyperinflation lies in the domestic prohibition of fractional reserve banking, coupled with simultaneous, proportionate foreign exchange regulation, which would require the banks to absorb the new money as increased reserves in a transition to full reserve banking.

This response amounts to legislated domestic monetary reform, which is, therefore, not an option "absent authentic monetary reform" (like the first four options above [i.e. 1-4]) but, rather, is authentic monetary reform.

In short, if nations find the first four options, above, unacceptable, then they will be forced to consider authentic monetary reform, which brings us back to the subject of this article in order to describe this type of reform.


Too good for just one snip!

slingshotGoldilox , Justiceplus#13881112/6/05; 06:34:33

Guess we are in one heck of a pickle.

GoldiloxThe REAL War#13881212/6/05; 06:36:07


Unless you really own yourself, you're just a pawn in somebody else's game.

Tennessee Ernie Ford nailed it 50 years ago: "I owe my soul to the company store."

Could it be the most profound line in American history? In world history?

We sold our souls for the trinkets — the best wine, women and song. And while we were out capturing jewels, our most valuable possessions — the kids — ran off with their peers, got mixed in with the masses and got chewed up in our scams. Chickens roosting. We kill our children and deny we do it.

We let our kids go out to play, knowing the land had been poisoned by our inattention to the important things.

Now we raise our kids to be killed for lies, and squirm in the dark chasms beneath our pillows, dreaming the bills have come due. They have.

When people don't earn what they get, and don't get what they earn, a sickness develops, a corruption. Our society is set up so the middlemen get all the money. They don't earn their money, they steal it from others who do. But this is how the society has developed, and the entire human species has turned into a culture of parasites feeding on themselves, destroying the very conditions that sustain their lives with the deluded pretense of gathering "wealth."

That makes it difficult to appeal to their sense of reason, because their reason is to rape and plunder and not get caught.

The guy who said, "Crime doesn't pay," was a crook, because crime most definitely does pay, because it runs the whole world, and the best criminals — sociopaths posing as political leaders — often wind up running governments.

Everybody does only what they can do. Everybody tries to be as honest as they can. When you have to be slightly dishonest, or change the debate in order to cover up something you want to hide, you need to look at the thing you don't want everybody else to know, and understand how it poisons your life.

Are you happy profiting from someone else's misery? A majority of us are.

And that's where we are right now. That's the real war.


Just where has a debt-based society taken us, anyway?

"I owe, I owe, so off to work I go!"

Indentured servitude was the method used by many of our forefathers to arrive in the Western Henisphere. Though outlawed in its 17th century form, it is alive and well in fractional reserve banking and the fruits thereof!

GoldiloxThe Debate Over the Yuan#13881312/6/05; 07:05:44


So, the U.S. Treasury Department decided not to brand China as a currency manipulator; The Financial Times (subscription required) leads with that story across the top of its front page and The New York Times features it on the front page of the business section. I've always thought this debate is misplaced or, at least, doesn't focus on two other solutions, one easy and one not-so-easy.

The argument causing a lot of heated rhetoric is this: China's currency, the yuan (also known as the renminbi, or "the people's money") is artifically undervalued. As a result, Chinese goods stay very cheap, which partly accounts for the huge trade deficit China enjoys with the U.S. Two Senators, Charles Schumer (NY) and Lindsey Graham (SC) have sponsored a bill that would impose a 27.5 percent tariff on China if it fails to allow its currency to rise.

But, while I am no fan of the dictatorship in China, the truth is the U.S. could so something simple: let the high-value of the dollar decline. A high dollar benefits tourists (for obvious reasons--you can buy more when you travel abroad) but does not help average Americans, over the long-term. Some day, we--or, or more accurately, today's children and those yet to be born--will have to pay the piper on a huge trade deficit. A high dollar may do a lot of good things for retailers like Wal-Mart (and the fabulously rich Waltons) but, eventually, someone has to pay for the costs of record trade deficits--China already owns $750 billion in U.S. securities and that will probably reach $1 TRILLION in the next couple of years if the pace of the deficits continues. That kind of debt owed by one country to another has never been seen in human history. So, why not let the dollar decline?

The other issue is this: my own view is that, frankly, the level of the Chinese currency won't make a huge difference because of the huge advantage China has in labor costs. As long as the authoritarian regime in China suppresses its workers' rights, it will continue to be the industrial Mecca of global corporations. You just can't find cheaper--and more controlled--labor anywhere in the world. If you are a U.S. worker worrying about losing jobs overseas, you should be rooting for Chinese workers getting the right to have unions and breaking loose to push wages up; there are, in fact, regular protests and wildcat strikes in China which may portend a massive social upheaval driven by vast legions of rural poor who want a share of the rapidly developing economy.


So long as the media pits one "controller class" against another, the real "victims" are the "controlled" in both hemispheres.

The author is launching a Democratic challenge to Hillary's NY Senate seat.

slingshotSubstitution for Canada#13881412/6/05; 07:41:14

I wonder what the global impact would be if China bordered the USA. A double influx of migrant workers into the economy. Have not heard anything more on the Chinese Boat People. Mexican workers would have some stiff competition.

GoldiloxCrash: Shot Across the Bow?#13881512/6/05; 07:42:51


We read with interest this morning's report from CNN that an Iranian military plane with 90+ people aboard has crashed near Tehran.

Normally, we don't jump right to a conspiracy angle, but we are watching this situation quite closely. As background, we have to remember that the neoCON agenda has been to expand the US presence in the Middle East, ostensibly to secure our energy interests in the area. The Gulf War was a stew of factors in this general direction including big bucks for defense contractors, Iraqi plans to sell oil for euros, and a number of others.

More recently, the former Israeli premier warned of an attack on Iran, which is reportedly only four-five months from possibly having a nuclear weapon. Israel, which sports about 300 nukes of its own, doesn't want the "nuclear club" getting any bigger. Iran, predictably, made the usual protestations about the comments - not mentioning that their side had declared a month or two back that "Israel should be wiped off the map."

With all the tensions swirling about the possibility of Iran getting access to weapons-grade material, the Washington Post reports today that Iran is going ahead with plans to add two more reactors next year. Remember, the Russians are hip deep in funding Iran's development, so any showdown with the West would likely drag Russia into the fray - along with possibly China.

So what we have with today's crash of an Iranian military plane is either one hell of a coincidence, or about equally possible, the start of a new round of escalation in the Middle East.


For those who believe Tommy Frank's warning that a failure in NeoCon control will bring "Terror, Shock, and Awe" as their weapons of last political resort, here's an interesting potential for them to escalate their foreign adventures at a time when more of the electorate is calling for relaxation. With the CIA "intelligence officers" leaving in droves over the Plame affair, the "plumbers" seriously outnumber career intel officers.

Watching the "Trial of Billy Mitchell", who was court-martialed in the 1920's for insubordinately suggesting that the US was vulnerable to air attack, I'm not surprised that warnings from more visionary military leaders are not taken seriously. Wasn't Flavius Aetius. who defeated Attila's army murdered for becoming "obsolete" with his victory? Or was that just the TV version?

GoldiloxMigrant workers#13881612/6/05; 07:50:03

@ slingshot,

Recent studies have shown that "globalist" plans like NAFTA, et al, have dropped Mexican real wages by 50%. Those who "escape" to the US fare little better, as their sub-standard wages are eaten up by competing costs of living and supporting a family on foreign soil.

Globalism only supports the folks that OWN the production, transportation and distrution. The greater the distance between the source and end-user, the greater the degree of corporate oversight.

HenriSilver spot#13881712/6/05; 08:30:27

Silver appears to have made what appears to be a quantum leap in the last few minutes...just back to from where it departed but significant in face of all other fallings of metals
GoldiloxEuropean Minerals Corporation Hedges 443,000 Ounces Of Gold At US$574.25 Per Ounce#13881812/6/05; 08:34:49


LONDON, United Kingdom--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 6, 2005--European Minerals Corporation ("EMC" or "the Company") is pleased to announce it has completed the execution of its gold hedging programme which is a condition of drawdown of the US$75.4 million debt facility concluded with Investec Bank (UK) Limited, Investec Bank Limited ("Investec") and Nedbank Limited ("Nedbank") for its 100% owned Varvarinskoye project (see Press Release dated December 1, 2005). The Company expects to commence drawdown of the loan during January 2006.

EMC has implemented a gold hedging facility in the form of a monthly US dollar flat forward gold sale for the 8 year term of the debt facility. EMC has sold 443,000 ounces of gold and has locked in a guaranteed price of US$ 574.25 per ounce for the whole period. The gold hedging facility is un-margined and deliveries of gold into the hedge are scheduled to commence in the first quarter of 2007.

The 443,000 ounces hedged represents 50% of the gold production during the term of the debt facility but only 19% of Varvarinskoye's current proven and probable mineral reserves of 2.34 million ounces of gold (this estimate of gold reserves was calculated at a gold price of US$375 per ounce).


Hedging is not going away, but the threshold seems to be rising dramatically.

GoldiloxHedges#13881912/6/05; 08:36:16

URL for article below
slingshotGlobalization#13882012/6/05; 08:39:35

I am reading your links and they are like sign posts giving warnings. Wealth Transfer is Globalization and the processes TPTB uses are so insidious that one can not believe it. For whose benifit they proclaim great progams, treatys and laws. Not Us! The Council of Foreign Realation, Bilderburgers, IMF, Trilateral Commission and so forth and their agendas to bring the whole world into their submission. All this said and all that has been said on this forum would have us believe that they are benign.
What is the linch pin that breaks and reveals them for what they are? Is it the USA? Its division into the rich and poor? Have and have nots? The distruction of its borders? The Second Admendment? Which I believe will go first before they confiscate the gold and property.
Anyway, what the heck do I know. I'm just a stupid American.

GoldiloxPrison Planet#13882112/6/05; 08:49:37

@ slingshot,

I won't elaborate here, but more solid research is available at the URL above.

One of favorites is the "Keeping it in the family" video excerpts from his Martial Law 911: Rise of the Police State DVD.

GoldiloxPension cuts#13882212/6/05; 08:56:04

CNBC just showed a clip of Dubya responding to Verizon's announcement to cut out executive pensions. "America's corporations must make good on their promises".

Nice how he waits until exec pensions are threatened before uttering even a peep. Not a word when UAL and GM cut pensions for less than executive ranks, but of course, they aren't necessarily political contributors to his "regime".

Now CNBC is promoting more flexible 401k innovations, so the brokers control our retirement options. HMMM. . . after the tech bubble (401k destruction) deflation, I'm not too impressed with this plan.

I think the real issue is retirement medical, as the corporations would love to pass those obligations on to MediCare.

GoldiloxSilver "leap"#13882312/6/05; 09:00:23

@ henri,

Silver leap appears to be just more volitility! got Ping-pong?

R PowellStrong silver..?#13882412/6/05; 09:57:33

Henri, (138817), yes, I had the same thought when last I looked at the numbers. It's most unusual to see silver as the strongest of the metals. Demand or speculative buying or just short term market noise? Who knows? A fellow named Kaplan (uptick) used to write for the "Consensus" newspaper which tracks both technical and fundamental news in commodities. His views of silver have been fairly correct over the years. I'd love to know his thoughts now on all metals.

R PowellDavid Linkley#13882512/6/05; 10:13:15

Concerning post # 138807, I have to agree 100% again. There are not very many who adhere to this approach, in actual trading or investing but many who do advocate it.
It's nice to see that I'm not entirely alone here. 8>))

CoBra(too)@ OvS#13882612/6/05; 10:19:57

"Kant say what you meant,
but Nietzsche it was not.
Now let me go back to my new interest...

Pretty whitty - though in the end I've never seen anything original nor of real interest you've ever contributed to this site; And that is to say in all your flimsy disguises as "Christian, Gott Erhalte.., Dee" and now the recently styled New Englander, being mad at missing the first boat "Mayflower" and therefor being more stuffed than befits an original Bostonian. My only query would be - join the tea as in the Boston Tea Party!

Thank you very much for consideration and fare well


Flatliner@ don't encourage him - - this serial poster#13882712/6/05; 10:40:29

I do apologize. It was never my intent to rain on anyone's parade.

Turn you backs, if you so choose. I, for one, will not.
Wait for your price increase and sell, I will value mine as reserve.
Live trapped in fear of today's headlines, I choose to see opportunity.
A man that lives by honestly, dies a happy man.

If you are human enough to stand up, I challenge you to come up with solutions. The problems are posted – here and everywhere – on a daily basis. But, I see everywhere that great minds and extraordinary thinkers refuse to act. Instead, they live in fear of the latest headline, convert into bullion, and tremble in the shadows. How can anyone possibly see this as healthy? How does this empower your life? How does this help your children? How can this improve the world in which you live?

It will not sit idle.

Anyone that lives this way will live a cowardly existence. Sure, they will hold gold. Sure, they will be wealthy. But, they will live in fear. Those that torture and connive will remain in power and continue to rape humanity in every possible way. Given the current course of events, it will only get worse.

The future, lays in the hand of the Goldbug that is willing to extend trust, be it just a little, to a cause that can be built on hope. The future will require that Goldbugs actually interact in a trustful way. Together, many Goldbugs will lay the foundation for the economy. Separately, Goldbugs are ineffective and enslaved just like the rest of the population.

Continue to choose teams. Get ready to play ball. But the game that you play will be lost by a landslide… if you do not come out to play.

Flatliner@yesterday's: Banks are unnecessary... #13882812/6/05; 10:49:49

"Individuals and private organizations should hold their gold and trade its receipts, to lend and to borrow it."

Individuals = You.
Private organizations = Gold Reserve Bank (many).

Individual = small fish.
Private organization = school of fish that move in the same direction.

Individual = Fill up gas tank, if there is gas.
Private organization = buy oil tanker, refine it and then fill up gas tank because it made gas.

Individual = Use gold as collateral for food.
Private organization = Use gold as collateral to grow food.

This quote, I interpret to mean, something like: Gold should be used as reserve so that people can loan and borrow the receipts that it empowers.

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RimhFlatliner....#13883012/6/05; 11:32:07

I believe you (or Smeagol) stumbled on the source of contention - the human heart and mind. While I applaud your efforts to "be in the game" and try and come up with solutions, the problem, as I see it is your hope for a pure and altruistic "bank" supported by the goldbugs. Unfortunately, I and many other goldbugs feel the realities of this world preclude such a possibility... to the effect that we would prefer to hold our gold in hand and use it for whatever purposes we deem appropriate. When the times get tough, I have no doubt you will see many goldbugs selflessly mobilizing their gold to causes for the greater good - but causes of their choosing, not the choosing of a government or bank. And that, to me represents the freedom we have when we hold our gold in hand, not as shares in some bank or co-operative. Bottom line - its about control. As the old twist on the golden rule goes "He who has the gold makes the rules". And if the gold is distributed amongst the masses instead of held in central institutions there will be much better balance in how that gold is used for the greater good of mankind.

Smeagol, thanks for the link to archives on this topic - I rarely go back there, but reading those old posts made me realize the depth of insight in those postings!

TownCrierIndia has passive gold investment policy - RBI#13883112/6/05; 11:32:49

Dec 6, 2005; MUMBAI (Reuters) - India's central bank governor, Yaga Venugopal Reddy, said on Tuesday that the federal government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have been following a "passive policy" on the country's gold holdings.

India's foreign exchange reserves are $142.18 billion, out of which gold comprises only 3.4 percent. The bulk of the reserves is held in foreign currency assets which are currently at $136 billion and which are mostly invested in U.S Treasuries.

"**So far** the government and the RBI (have) been following a passive gold policy," he told reporters, when asked if the central bank planned to increase the share of gold holdings in its official foreign exchange reserves.

...central banks of Russia, Argentina and South Africa, all of whom have decided to increase the amount of gold in their reserves. Analysts say diversification by central banks into gold has **so far** been slow as they tried to keep their gold buying under wraps.

But the growing risk of high inflation and low growth could make gold attractive for central banks, given the uncertainities of high commodity prices, increasing geo-political risks and concerns about rising international trade barriers.

^---(from url)---^

In this article I like the two-time usage of the phrase "so far" (meaning, "at least up until now... but no promises for tomorrow").

This is an example of "creating" news. If you think about it, after many decades of days going by where the central bank governor has not had this question put before him, you can probably begin to see the subtle sign that the media-following population is starting to be groomed for new official policy orientation with new emphasis upon gold.

Further... in addition to list given in the article that makes gold ownership attractive to both people and to central banking institutions, with just a tiny amount of thought it will also occur to you that gold reserves provide the most natural means for central banks who are mindful to reduce their exposure to exchange-rate risk, particularly of the form manifested in their current holdings of billion$ in the form of U.S. Treasuries.

Do not hesitate to take necessary action to round out your portfolio diversification strategy with a solid foundation of gold ownership.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today and be golden. Toll Free, 1-800-869-5115


mikal@TC#13883212/6/05; 11:45:10

'So far', SOO good.
Flatliner@Rimh#13883312/6/05; 11:53:14

I feel a pulse.

Do you really mean to encourage me? I am in complete agreement on must every word you've posted here.

I would like to purpose a slight change to your wording and offer one more change below.

"I have no doubt you will see many goldbugs selflessly mobilizing their gold to causes for the greater good - but causes of their choosing, not the choosing of a government or [Fiat Fractional Reserve] bank."

Have I gone to far here?

What if Goldbugs chose to create a bank? One that held 100% reserves in gold, followed the rules that the Goldbugs collectively create? You know, "causes of their choosing".

The second change is a matter of timing. The day that Goldbugs organize to create such a ‘bank’ will be the day Freegold arrives in the world. Until then, we will all suffer.

That is why I continue to bring this issue up. Think about it. My contention is that the current fiat system will not embrace the Freegold principle while they reap the rewards of fiat money. This must change. The only way for it to change is for the free gold that is already available to everyone to start acting as Freegold.

Does this make sense? In other words, Goldbugs are the ones that must make Freegold happen. Do not rely on Central Banks to do this because… well… they wont.

SurvivorA (Sort of) Rhetorical Question . . . #13883412/6/05; 11:53:27

If central banks were truly necessary and credible in their role as the purveyers of fiat currency, why would they bother (or feel the need to) hold gold at all?

A hypocracy being heaped on us, methinks!

Glad I hold my share. Got yours?

- Survivor

TownCrierTuesday Evening Television "gold standard" Alert...#13883512/6/05; 12:01:12

(USA TODAY) The Christmas Classic That Almost Wasn't -- When CBS bigwigs saw a rough cut of A Charlie Brown Christmas in November 1965, they hated it.

And when the program airs today at 8 p.m. ET on ABC, it will mark its 40th anniversary — a run that has made it a staple of family holiday traditions and an icon of American pop culture.

Scholars of pop culture say that shining through the program's skeletal plot is the quirky and sophisticated genius that fueled the phenomenal popularity of Schulz's work...

"This is the only time in the year when TV programs from the LBJ years play on network television and do very, very well," he says. "For millions of baby boomers, these things became as much a holiday tradition as hanging a stocking or putting up a tree."

What makes A Charlie Brown Christmas the "gold standard" in Thompson's view is that it somehow manages to convey an old-fashioned, overtly religious holiday theme that's coupled with Schulz's trademark sardonic, even hip, sense of humor.

While Schulz centers the piece on verses from the Bible, laced throughout are biting references to the modern materialism of the Christmas season. Lucy complains to Charlie that she never gets wants she really wants. "What is it you want?" Charlie asks. "Real estate," she answers.

"A key element in all of Schulz's work is his sense of man's place in the scheme of things in a theological sense as well as a psychological sense," says Thomas Inge, an English and humanities professor...

Parents say the combination of humor and bedrock values is what draws them and their children to the show.

^---(see url for full article)---^

In place of "real estate", back in 1965 Lucy certainly couldn't say "gold" because it had been made illegal for U.S. citizens to own gold bullion from 1933 up until 1975.

So, tune in your television tonight to celebrate the season with a Christmas classic, and always tune into USAGOLD to celebrate the restoration of your personal freedom and sovereignty with gold ownership which has been long overdue.


TownCrierFlatliner, msg #138833#13883612/6/05; 12:05:33

So as not to overly belabor the point, I will simply say, you are dead wrong on this.


Flatliner@Flatliner, msg #138833#13883712/6/05; 12:26:09

Humbly at you mercy seeking proof.
RimhUh, nooo Flatliner - #13883812/6/05; 12:33:39

Not at all close to my message. To be blunt:

bank (ANY bank)= institution = trouble (not-free-gold)

individual ownership = free gold

Why do you insist that there "must" be a bank involved to improve the system? While banks will probably always exist in one form or another, my contention is that they will never be in any way an altruistic organization for the greater good of mankind. Individual ownership of gold, your own piggy "bank" if you will, is the best way for you to effect mankind for the greater good, in my opinion.

There soon may be no reward (pain, more likely) in the fiat system to reap and then ALL eyes will most certainly be on gold, like it or not...

RimhFlatliner..#13883912/6/05; 12:40:43

Your proof lies in the historical track record of countless failed banking systems throughout the world, each setup with purported 'good' plans but ultimately ending in ruins vs gold-in-hand which has stood the test of time as value without equal....
FlatlinerAre banks bad?#13884012/6/05; 12:53:09

Actually, I believe that you are already ‘the bank.’ He who holds gold will be the banker of the future. I also believe that you have three choices. 1) Sell your gold for the going price, 2) Continue to store your wealth or 3) Act like a bank and write receipts against it.

Are there other options?

As much as you hate the concept of a bank, as the price of gold goes up, you will find yourself closer and closer to having enough wealth that you will act like a bank.

So, if you act like a bank, do you become the bad guy?

RimhFlatliner#13884112/6/05; 13:20:20

You or I may act like a bank, but that does not make us a bank. Your earlier posts were fairly specific in suggesting that goldbugs organize to create some kind of institution. It is the institution that I decry. What you do with your personal holdings is none of my business.
Rimhand another thought....#13884212/6/05; 13:26:30

Any circumstance where you or someone else is making decisions about how my gold might or should be used I find objectionable - and that would be the case with the proposed 'goldbug bank'.
RimhOr to flip the concept...#13884312/6/05; 13:33:05

How about you give me all your gold right now and I'll start the Rimh GoldBug Bank. I'll be the CEO and Chairman and you can be the first shareholder. If we disagree on the gold's usage, as chairman, I will have the deciding vote. If you choose to withdraw your holdings, there will a mandatory three day hold period to verify the paperwork, after which there will be a 15% surcharge for early withdrawal......
SmeagolSir Flatliner, you are going in circles.#13884412/6/05; 13:38:15

(Smeagol mode off)

"What if Goldbugs chose to create a bank? One that held 100% reserves in gold, followed the rules that the Goldbugs collectively create? You know, "causes of their choosing".

Time. Think about it through Time.

Let's say you actually start this 100% golden bank. How do you guarantee 100% that the shareholders will always choose rules and causes that are beneficial? What if they start out with good intentions and later evolve to something less noble? Think about that, because that IS what happens in
the real world.

"The day that Goldbugs organize to create such a ‘bank’ will be the day Freegold arrives in the world."

My apologies, but as sir TC wrote, you ARE dead wrong here.

"In other words, Goldbugs are the ones that must make Freegold happen. Do not rely on Central Banks to do this because… well… they wont."

Then you cannot rely on ANY bank - goldbugs or not, sooner or later - they won't be! What test will a potential shareholder have to pass to prove their "good goldbug" intentions, over their lifetime - or the lifetime of the
organization? What about hostile takeovers? Again, think about it through Time.

I came up with a potential solution which I posted a while back. Simply restated, to prevent mass fiat gold abuse, remove gold entirely from law and allow only humans to
own it. Sir Belgian said this was too "pure". Well, why not at least strive toward that, even if it cannot be absolutely achieved in the impefect state we live in? Implementing
this solution is frankly impossible; like I said, it's the human heart (and mind, thank you, Sir Rimh), not the design of the system, that needs upgrading. The potential for the positive use of gold is offset by a negative potential of the same magnitude, as is true for any power. If everyone was content to live within their means, and not burn tomorrow's proceeds today, the problem would not exist in the first place, and we wouldn't be here discussing it.

Putting gold in a position where it can be used to gain an advantage over others always leads to that advantage being
exercised sooner or later. Gold has to be distributed, not concentrated, and like the Silmaril in the tale by Tolkien, placed in sight, yet out of reach of, any earthly power.

sir Flatliner, you don't NEED organizations/corporations to do what you are talking about. These are separate legal entities in themselves, add additional layers of complexity, often hide the intent and agendas of their owners, are organized under systems of law that may themselves be bent, and most importantly are inconstant through Time.

All you NEED is each individual exercising their free right to contract/use their gold as they see fit, to accomplish their own goals. Taken in total, that will bring us closer to the nobler intent that you fervently pursue (to your everlasting credit, btw. More power to you), than the
current system.

Even with that, some will bend their gold-wealth to uses that may not be beneficial to you, or others. Even your use
of your gold may inadvertently harm someone else if that use results in loss of their rights or property.

Gold, having the highest wealth/liquidity potential of any thing, demands commensurate responsibility in its use.
When everyone has a HEART of gold, THEN we
will truly have Freegold.

Paraphrasing, with the intensity, conviction and accent of the character in "The Incredibles" who makes the costumes
for the superheroes, "No (gold deposit) banks!"


Rimhcool concept, Smeagol!#13884512/6/05; 13:48:46

Allow only humans to own gold - what a revelation that would be! No corporations or governments allowed!
FlatlinerI sense some concession here and I'm starting to see your point of view.#13884612/6/05; 14:09:52

I will concede that forming a community bank (of gold) will not accomplish what I am looking for - at this point.

At the same time, if you act like a bank, you are a bank and that doesn't mean you're bad.

I will stand by my original claim, but lighten it a little, (If you go back to some of my earliest posts,) I said something like "you will never sell your gold again!" Back then, I was ridiculed for this statement. I will change it to: "If you learn how to use your gold as a reserve, you will most likely never sell your gold again. :)" He who understands this will be the banker of the future.

I will be in this future banking group. I will welcome others. If you would like, I will share my experiences in this forum for all to learn.

TownCrierBrazil central bank may cancel all old swaps Weds.#13884712/6/05; 15:17:44

SAO PAULO, Brazil, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Brazil's central bank said on Tuesday it will sell currency swaps linked to short-term interest rates on Wednesday for the ninth time since November, and the sale may allow it to entirely retire an old batch of dollar-linked swaps.

They also cancel out the effect of dollar-linked swaps that were sold several years ago to prevent the real from weakening.

If all of the old swaps were retired, the bank could choose to continue selling the new swaps to cancel out the impact of some 35 billion reais in outstanding dollar-linked bonds.

So far, the central bank has not indicated to the market if the sales will continue or stop. But traders have said the bank has taken a more active role in the foreign exchange market since October to pull the real back from its highest levels in 4-1/2 years and keep exports competitive.

^----(from url)---^

Foreign currencies relative to each other rise and fall according to economics and to local policy.

A key issue to bear in mind is the erosional effect on the value of foreign currency reserves within the CB balance sheet when policy and economic factors conspire to strengthen the domestic currency relative to the foreign holdings, which themselves are being pushed around by their own economies and government policies in the same game. It's enough to drive a sensible, stability-minded central banker to distraction.

Hence the evolving deemphasis on a key-currency reserve concept and a reemphasis on a mark-to-market floating gold reserve concept. Each domestic currency can continue to respond in value and volume to economic/policy forces, while at the same time the primary use of gold reserves will ensure that the asset side of the balance sheet doesn't fundamentally come undone.

And in precisely the same way, a person with a primary reliance on solid gold savings will rest easy knowing that their purchasing power is safely residing beyond the steady general march of currency depreciation.


TownCrierShort but sweet...#13884812/6/05; 15:27:43

Richard Suttmeier, Contributor
(TheStreet)12/6/2005 --

"...the higher gold price is not just a sign of inflationary pressures. Gold is becoming an asset class of choice for petrodollars, and central banks are increasing their gold reserves on global currency concerns. To me, high gold prices warn that financial assets are vulnerable in 2006. The dollar bottomed at the end of 2004 and could top out by the end of 2005 as global investors get nervous about the growing U.S. budget and trade deficits."

^---(from url)---^

Choose gold. Giants have cleared a path, now walk confidently in their footsteps.


PanIndia's costly love affair with gold#13884912/6/05; 15:42:55

"Money spent on the precious metal could be cutting the country's economic growth by 0.4 percentage points per year."

"It's fair to say India's economic growth would be higher if the money tied up in gold was invested more productively," says Diana Farrell, director of the McKinsey Global Institute in San Francisco."

"It'll take a long time to break the gold habit," says Shiv Taneja, a former Bombay journalist who is now the Asia Pacific director of Cerulli Associates, a US financial services consultancy. "It's not going to happen in the next five or 10 years; rather, it may take one or two generations. But I'm confident it will happen eventually."

This shabby economic growth argument is new to me.

I'm sure the gold cartel will try to do the trick!

I'm wonder if there is time left before they are running dry?

TownCrierPan, they put the anti-growth gold figure at 0.4%...#13885012/6/05; 15:57:05

Hmmmmmm..... If they had to calculate a similar anti-growth figure based on the impact of losses of national savings, purchasing power, and confidence due to inflation and depreciation of the local currency, I wonder what THAT figure would be.

Shabby economic assessment is often the result of an agenda, a blind eye, or both.

Thanks for the post.


SmeagolHow's this sound, Sir Flatliner?#13885112/6/05; 16:00:29

You will hold closest that resource which has the greatest wealth-liquidity-half-life in a given circumstance.


Flatliner@How's this sound#13885212/6/05; 16:17:51

I think my capitalistic mind hears your intent. But my heart is dearly sad.

There is not a physical thing that can replace the honorable word from someone that you trust or the comforting arms from people with a common bond that share their life with you.

Cavan ManSatisfied Customer#13885312/6/05; 16:19:35

MK: Hats off to you and your fine team in Denver! Our modest transaction went off without a hitch; security, professionalism and competitive (best part for this thrifty Cavan Man). I highly recommend Centennial Precious Metals.
USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#13885412/6/05; 16:33:07">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

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TUESDAY Market Excerpts

Gold up, buying emerges on intraday dips

December 6 (from DowJones) -- Sentiment remains bullish for gold, analysts say. As a result, an early profit-taking decline became a buying opportunity and the Comex futures finished with a gain Tuesday for the fourth session in a row. In doing so, the metal avoided what technicians consider to be a bearish chart-reversal formation.

February gold settled with a gain of $1.20 to $513.80.

"We tried to reverse to the downside and didn't get all that far," said Tim Evans, analyst with IFR Pegasus. "So we bobbed back up. The market remains buoyant in terms of its sentiment," he added.

"That same demand that we've been seeing for weeks now continues to underpin prices," said Dave Meger, senior metals analyst with Alaron Trading.

"So as of right now, pullbacks are still considered to be a buying opportunity."

Evans pointed out that that Canada-based Goldman Sachs analysts included buying gold as one of their top trading ideas for 2006.

"In terms of market timing, it would not surprise me to see a cycle of profit taking between now and year end - both because we saw that last year, and also as a normal book-squaring kind of activity ahead of the holidays," said Evans. One trader commented that profit taking was the main reason that gold and silver were softer out of the gate first thing this morning.

With gold hitting contract and 24-year highs, pegging specific chart levels becomes difficult.

"The upside isn't particularly well capped, which is kind of a mixed condition," said Evans.

"On one hand, we don't have a prior high to key off of. On the other hand, we also don't have a particular level where we would see a concentration of buy stops. We're really in an area where the overhead resistance is somewhat vague.

"We saw some selling today at a high of $514.80. Does that mean somebody is looking at $515 as a psychological level? Perhaps. If you're looking at a scaled trading idea, we might see some resistance at $5 intervals on the way up."

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---

R PowellHedging thoughts #13885512/6/05; 16:36:31

Thanks, Goldilox, for the heads-up on European Minerals Corp.'s newly initiated hedge program (138818). Wouldn't it be nice if this hedging were not necessary for the miners to obtain loans but, I guess, the bank asks, "What have you got for collateral to secure the loan?" After the corp. explains about gold in the ground the bank then asks, "How do we know you'll be able to sell that gold for enough capital to repay us?" Hence, unfortunately, the hedging becomes necessary.

The article stated that the physical would be sold to repay beginning in Jan. 2007. I became curious and looked at the present POG for delivery in both Dec. 2006 and Dec. 2007, covering the first year of repayment. Today's Dec. 2006 price is $536.0 and Dec. 2007 price is $562.1. How about the POG for Dec. 2009, rich? I didn't know you were's listed at $612.9, but I don't know if you'll get anyone to sell it to you! Interesting too, that the corp was able to put on this hedge without any margin. Now, I wonder if they could hedge the hedge by buying an equal amount of gold in the futures paper game to cover the loss between the price they've locked into at delivery time and the possibly much higher POG that we'll see when that delivery time arrives.

Also, I wonder if this hedge really calls for physical delivery or if it's all paper, in which case the corp might be able to buy back (offset the sale) if..IF...the POG were to decline. Interesting too, that the article said the 443,000 ounce hedge has been completed. I would guess it was done over the recent past few months. Apparently the gold market is strong enough to have absorbed this sale and still reached new highs. Is the bull stronger than we think or is 443,000 ounces just a drop in the bucket + not enough to alter the buy/sale balance? I don't know anyone with enough fiat to buy that much and, even if the wizard has learned how to change stray into FDRs, he'd buy physical now. Hopefully the company will prosper enough to repay the loan + also offset the hedge.

I recently again tried to obtain a bank loan to buy physical which I offered to allow the bank to store in a joint safe deposit box until the loan was repaid. We never got down to what percent of the purchase price they'd lend or interest terms on the balance. They simply refused to hold gold as security for a loan. And yes, I was going to include the option of being able to sell the physical (or a portion thereof!) to repay the loan. The loan officer took the idea all the way to the top....but, no deal. Stupid bank! Now, maybe if I offer to hedge by selling in say, Dec. 2009 for $612.9 what I want to buy today with the bank's money (loan).... Easy to buy a house or a car or even a yacht, but not gold!

SmeagolWell...#13885612/6/05; 16:37:41

...capitalism is heartless, but I understand your intent.


SmeagolOur last...#13885712/6/05; 16:40:39

..was meant for Sir Flatliner, just in case - not you Sir R Powell! ~8-)
David LinkleyBe careful out there#13885812/6/05; 16:55:40

Just a note that with all of the global liquidity out there combined with the black box traders, the volatility in gold and gold shares is likely to increase dramatically.
Both highs and lows will overshoot and catch investors off guard. Even buy and hold investors will be tested. The moneyed classes and their investment houses want your gold and your shares.

MK, thanks for your personal touch when handling the clients I send you. They are very happy with how you conduct your business, professional as always.

CoBra(too)XAU and HUI ... @Rich P.#13885912/6/05; 17:25:46

Are starting the race to catch up and potentially lead the POG again.

Hi, Ho silver on Santa Claus (Nikolaus) Day - Best cb2

PS: @ YGM - Love your Creek Gold Bank!

OvScb2#13886012/6/05; 18:30:51

Dripping envy
on sour grapes

Sorry that you feel

There is a vast ocean
between us

But a continent that
produces a "Belgian"

Can't be all bad..OvS

YGMCobra#13886112/6/05; 19:38:40

You oughta know me by now after all these years. I'm just another old timer who doesn't trust them no account crooks and criminal Banksters with my Gold :-) Bad enough a guy needs a bank account at all much less a damn credit card just to get a sleep in a good hotel or rent a car when you travel. Anyways they always owe me, I never owe them nothing anymore. Mother nature held that precious for a few million yrs, so she can hold onto some of mine for a few more years. Don't forget we're going fishing some day here or there, whatever. Regards;
YGMCB2#13886212/6/05; 19:41:37

BTW...don't you just love this computer age? Now I can stake Gold claims from my confuser with out even going out in the bush to pound stakes. What next!
YGMTomorrow Dec 7th A Day of Infamy#13886312/6/05; 19:49:06

Remember Pearl Harbour.
GoldiloxCongressional hearings on levee breeches#13886412/6/05; 20:13:13

CSPAN is televising the Congressional hearings with witnesses to the levee breeches. The stories of explosions in the levees, military "round-ups", resident weapons confiscations, and eviction from housing that remains inhabitable are pretty graphic.

The past president of the NO NAACP suggested that the NO police went AWOL with all their emergency equipment to get out of the way of the troops, and that returning residents trying to collect clothing were evacuated at gun point.

This mess is getting uglier.

Galearis@ Rich re: retreating pundits.#13886512/6/05; 20:18:14

Hi Rich,

Uptick is a hard find to read these days, yes? I will disagree a wee bit with you about the accuracy of his market calls. I still remember his "discussions" on the Kitco forum with Ted Butler and others were often markedly acrimonious. He was eventually banished from that forum for his behaviors. He has also been dropped from the list of pundits that most popular precious metal web sites publish regularly. No doubt he has gone mainstream! I am treading very carefully here,... I wish him all the success. He will be doing us a better service there by promoting the conventional view.

Upticks claim to fame was an unshakable belief that the precious metals futures markets were not a manipulation. To this individual, paper silver contract sales on COMEX (every two months or so) that regularly totalled the world's annual silver production and suppressed and capped the POS were never naked short sales,,, that all these contracts represented real supply of metal - that could be covered should the need arise. All of this is on the public record. He maintained that the silver market was not rigged, of course. And, of course, as long as the market remained rigged, his views were sustained by fairly reliable predictions.

But things have changed.

I have my doubts whether the commercials will be going very short in the future, and going naked short would be very risky, indeed, from now on. IMO we are in the transition phase to the purely physical market and we should see things really start to fly in the early New Year. The interesting COMEX delivery events going on in both gold and silver – prompted by obvious market participation – with the onset/PUSH of the expiration of Bush's "Homeland Financial Act" should usher in a much more interesting 2006 with both gold and silver. Both gold and silver markets are now trading differently. The focus has shifted IMO away from paper and to the metal. But the old guard is fighting back. But still losing steadily and consistently,,,,because they are trapped.

I stated in September that December should be quite exciting: it has fulfilled its promise.

Best regards, and as always: FWIW.


MKC-Man and Mr. Linkley#13886612/6/05; 20:50:42

Thank you for the kind words. We appreciate your business and referrals without which this venue would not be possible. More than that we appreciate your long term friendship. The years have gone by so swiftly, my friends, and we have come a long way. It seems like only yesterday that Randy and I were concerned that we would attract enough posters to make this interesting. Now thousands depend on it daily as a source of information, inspiration, connectivity. The other day Rupert Murdoch said that the internet could render newspapers obsolete. Having had the experience of this website, I understand what he is talking about. In the end, without our clientele none of this would have been possible since we do not sell advertising or charge for admission. So it is people like you to whom every visitor at this site owes a debt of gratitude. Not only do you contribute to the general well-being by posting here; you also keep the lights on, the windows cleaned, and this extraordinary table well-polished. Such is an act of faith for all of us, and that's been at the heart of this website from the start.

Enough. . . Look now, my fellow goldmeisters. Gold has just gone through the $510 barrier!

SmeagolWe sees the six-dollar rule...#13886712/6/05; 20:51:55 losing its teeth of late.


SmeagolThey aren't Dollar-chartses....#13886812/6/05; 22:42:18

...but wethinks Ssirs Gandalf the White and Topaz will esspecially appreciate these, and the article. We were wondering whether it was possible to put together a Gold Intraday Seasonal chart, and here our wissh has been granted. Cats (or is that COTs) is out of the bag now! Yesssss!

Price Anomalies In The Gold Market
by Dimitri Speck

"Clearly visible here is that the gold price tends much more negatively during New York trading hours as during the remaining hours of the day. The beginning of these price anomalies (irregularities) can be pinpointed to the day. They started on August 5, 1993. This is of significance because it allows the accompanying circumstances leading to the irregularities to be more clearly defined. September 1999 is also notable as gold jumped following the Washington Agreement (WAG). More recently the line is above the zero level. Since then prices tend to rise toward the New York close. However in the current year (2005) the anomaly of a sharp drop toward the afternoon fixing continues. The basic premise of a typical sharp drop during the Comex session hasn't changed. Only the test procedure, chosen because of data availability is too inexact."


PRITCHO@ Galearis - -- Re Uptick (138865)#13886912/6/05; 23:03:51

You nailed that summary very well - -and with a lot less hostility than I could have mustered:)

I too remember him vividly from years ago at Kitco & the way he delighted in daily torture of the true believers. May all his chooks come home to roost - and may he live in interesting times!

(Think he's gonna get the last one)

Gandalf the WhiteTks Sir Smeagol ! <;-)#13887012/6/05; 23:55:51

That DATE in '93 seems to my poor old memory to be about the same time as the birth of the PPT !
NAW -- couldn't be !
PS: "Sic 'um" more DAWS !

Gandalf the Whiteoops#13887112/6/05; 23:57:43

That should have been DAWGS !
Sorry, SPOT and SPIKE !

GoldiloxInternet News#13887212/7/05; 00:13:39

@ MK,

Your forum is a very real part of the reason that internet news and views are chasing the "store-bought" media from the scene. Many other sites are cluttered with cross-talk, epithets, wild propheies, and too little research. When the mainstream bills Donnie Deutch and his ilk of PT Barnums as "Reality Shows," anyone with a lick of sense can see that they have no sense of reality at all.

I have watched some of the alt news sites with interest and some suspicion since the 911 and New Orleans events, but what I saw in the "hollow halls" of Congress today convinced me beyond a shadow of doubt. Outside the CSPAN direct broadcast and a few internet sites, there has been virtually NO Media coverage of the admin's complete whitewash of these events, even when questioned openly in Congress by respectable eye-witnesses.

Thousands of Americans abandoned, and possibly murdered, and we still endure "news" stories about one single American party-girl who got mixed up with the night-life crowd in Aruba. Of course I fell sorry for her and her family, but they are not as newsworthy to me as the lives of thousands of suffering victims who weren't seduced by "looking for love in all the wrong places".

The openness of the internet requires we do due diligence of our sources, but the alternative of swallowing the NWO "byline" hook, line, and sinker is grim. indeed. According to Jefferson (Thomas, not Wheezie) due diligence is what "freedom" is all about.

Thank you for opening the forum to questions and topics that we considered tangential not long ago, as it is becoming obvious how intertwined the corruption really is. What we once thought were unrelated events in ENRON, Barrick v. Blanchard, and whole scale naked shorting are all appearing to be very related indeed!

During WWII, a Lutheran pastor once quipped, "They came for the Jews, but we were silent. They came for the Catholics, and silent we remained. When they came for us, there was no one left to hear our cries."

Let us fervently hope and pray that the byline of lost Empirius Americanus will not be:

"They came for our guns, and promised security. They came for our homes, and foreclosed us to the streets. They came for our gold, and arrested us as "terrorists"!

GoldiloxKiss your Democracy Goodbye (But Did You Ever Have One?)#13887312/7/05; 00:40:07


Nobody could deny that indeed the state is undertaking fundamental attacks on the limited civil rights we have won over the past century or so of struggle but firstly, why are elements of the legal profession and the media only now waking up to the fact? Could it be that as long as it was only ‘extremists’ and other ‘fellow travellers’ who were the alleged subject of the attacks, our ‘liberal intelligentsia’ were not that troubled, but now they see their own positions of privilege threatened, they have at long last spoken out?

What is revealed here is something a lot more fundamental and a lot more insidious, for these self-same people who now talk of a "drift toward a police state" have seen the writing on the wall for at least past eight years, yet said nothing and indeed were quite content to accept the ‘drift’ so long as it didn't affect them.

Moreover, it reveals the incestuous relationship between our so-called intelligentsia and the state, why else do they continue to peddle the line that what is happening is some kind of encroachment on these mythical ‘rights’ that we are supposed to have had for centuries?

The uncomfortable truth is that democracy, even the limited form we currently have, exists for only as long as it's convenient to keep it. And it's a ‘democracy’ that is extremely narrowly defined, namely a two-party system that exists within a structure defined by an inherited and entrenched state bureaucracy that is, we are told, neutral and independent of the political process.

Yet the ‘Establishment’ as it is referred to, is a recognised institution composed of people who control the organs of the state; the judicial system, the civil service, the police and security services, education, the armed forces, and through their connections, the media and big business. These are people who are connected via the schools and universities they attended; the clubs they belong to and via family and business relationships.

However, the ‘Establishment’ is rarely, if ever referred to as being central to the maintenance of the State's power. Instead, it is presented to us as an amorphous and inherited set of relationships that are intrinsically ‘English’. The illusion is complete and reinforced by the assumptions made about its ‘inevitable’ nature, hence the statement "freedoms citizens have taken for granted for centuries" flows logically from such assumptions.

The role therefore of the intelligentisa is to maintain the illusion of a society ruled by people who have some kind of ‘natural right’ to rule, benignly you understand, to suggest otherwise is to be ‘un-English’ and it goes by the name of a ‘meritocracy’, those who rule through ability alone, at least that's what we are told. The Establishment is so powerful that it easily absorbs even those who ‘rise through the ranks’ and end up belonging to it, such as those who head up the current ‘Labour’ government, regardless that they come from working class backgrounds.


Written with the UK in mind, but parallels are ubiquitous around the "free world".

The Neocons profess the spreading of democracy, but neglect to tell us that they consider it an end-sum game, so we must give some up in order to "spread it".

GoldiloxSilver Wheaton announces C$75 million "bought deal" financing#13887412/7/05; 00:57:58

@ Rich,

Unfortunately, here's a hedge that did not press for higher prices ahead. They're selling their silver with the depreciation of a used car!


GoldiloxOops, my mistake#13887512/7/05; 01:02:35

Silver Wheaton deal is for shares not silver units. I stand blind and corrected.

That's about a 16% premium over today's close.

Probably still a great deal for the banks!

PRITCHOPrice Anomalies In The Gold Market -- - #13887612/7/05; 01:42:08

Check out the above article for some convincing evidence on what the crooks have been doing - -

"Clearly visible here is that the gold price tends much more negatively during New York trading hours as during the remaining hours of the day. The beginning of these price anomalies (irregularities) can be pinpointed to the day. They started on August 5, 1993. This is of significance because it allows the accompanying circumstances leading to the irregularities to be more clearly defined. September 1999 is also notable as gold jumped following the Washington Agreement (WAG). More recently the line is above the zero level. Since then prices tend to rise toward the New York close. However in the current year (2005) the anomaly of a sharp drop toward the afternoon fixing continues. The basic premise of a typical sharp drop during the Comex session hasn't changed. Only the test procedure, chosen because of data availability is too inexact."

Belgian@Pan > msf#138849#13887712/7/05; 01:59:53

The following two lines are the (dramatic) diagnosis (synthesis) of the failing $-IMS...and at the same time it contains the (presently) building solution !!!
I had another waw-experience !

>>>...It's fair to say (fair-!!!???) India's economic growth would be higher if the money tied up in gold (wawwww) was invested more productively,...""" says Diana Farrell, director of the McKinsey Global (???) Institute in San Francisco """.

Diana's utterly nonsense at "this" stage of the gold-wealth-reserve process, caused the waw-experience.

Thanks Pan.

TownCrierOn corrections#13887812/7/05; 02:42:21

I had the pleasure earlier this evening having randomly encountered a friend at a coffee shop. Is seems like we cross paths on average about once every one or two months.

Each time, without fail, he picks my brain about the latest doings of the central banks and more especially about the gold market in general. And in fact, in anticipation of this latter line of questioning, I usually cut to the chase and offer the latest gold price as part of my salutation, such as today, "Hello Antonio! FIVE-ONE-OH."

For the past few years he's always been on the cusp of buying gold, but as the price has always been higher than it was previously, he usually expresses a mixed sense first of wonderment and ultimately of agitation (as though he's missed the last boat). Having taken no action during the lower prices, he almost always consoles himself, speaking his thoughts out loud (almost as if seeking my approval), that "I'll definitely buy on the correction".

Sensing that what he really needed was simply a bit more proactive dialogue than I had customarily provided (my personal conversational style is to merely inform and let people make their own decisions), my response to his "correction" comment finally turned the light on.

I suggested that while he was always sidelined waiting for the next "correction" he ought to give some consideration to the following possibility -- that in light of the various things I've previously talked about, the piddly "correction" that he always seems to be waiting for is of no account compared to THE REAL CORRECTION that he needs to tune into -- that being a relentless march to significantly higher prices as gold corrects for 70+ years of undervaluation by the world's banking system.

What a shame it would be for a would-be gold owner to stay sidelined, waiting for some insignificant degree of price-drop that never materialized. I wonder how many other people have consistently tried to save $20 by waiting for a "correction", only to discover that after a series of $5 intraday dips the price overall has moved $50 higher, again and again.

Nike has a good slogan for occasions like this -- "just do it"


BelgianIndeed Sir TC...#13887912/7/05; 03:21:39

...Your story is not much different here on the other side of the pond. And when one of those, so called, goldprice corrections comes...the majority doesn't dare -"again"-, to take enough (appropiate amount) PHYSICAL into possession !
Have been following this psy-process for more than 5 years now.

With each goldprice correction, the paper-gold bugs are strengthened in their conviction that physical gold advocates do keep having it wrong...and always miss the "leverage" ! The gold-wealth only a dream,...a theory... yadayadayada. But nevertheless, the traditional paper-gold-bugs, did accumulate "some" physical...for the sake of peace of mind...just in case, the theory, the dream would correspond with the evolving realities. Denial > acceptance >>> PANIC !

The theoretical times (the advocay of physical gold) are already behind us. Now, the "facts" will "show" what is (was already) really going on.

Aren't you supposed to be in bed now...? -)(-

((( OvS-That was a nice thing, you said)))

Belgian@ Goldilox : democracy - establishment - intelligentia#13888012/7/05; 05:45:09

During, what we call (experience as) normal times, a would-be democracy reigns (is experienced) under the more or less balanced interaction between establishment and intelligentia.
The analytical question of "why" a major faction is moving further away from the (pseudo)ideal of (western) democracy, has not yet been asked and answered...PUBLICLY... by the (real) intelligentia. They are all completely anaestheticed (silenced) for one "MAJOR" reason. And you probably know my personal idea of this major reason (emphasis on major).

Democracy + establishment + intelligentia, do function in times of status quo and the interaction gets disturbed in times of BIG CHANGES...always periods to be very (extremely) cautious. We are living, NOW, such another period !

The establishment will allow the intelligentia to trumpet the synthesis (conclusions) of the big changes...after they materialized...and we move closer to another period of would-be democracy, once again.

Today, and in the days to come, explaining the "real reasons" for the return of modern gold, aren't that important anymore. It is happening now in absolute silence.
And that's the way it should happen.

Thanks for the educative post, Sir.

OvSGoldilox.#13888112/7/05; 08:09:48

Silver Wheaton is a subsidiary
of Goldcorp.
Goldcorp is committed to buy
1.35 billion dollars worth of
mineproperties from Barrick, if
and when (Feb.06) they take over
Placer Dome. GG has 400 million
in cash and surely can use an
xtra 100 mil.
Now, Scotia Capital represents
the global capital markets of
Scotia Bank, who reportedly is/
/was one of the two largest
"shorts" in the silver market.
Get the picture? Big money in
action. OvS

YGMFOA & ANOTHER#13888212/7/05; 08:14:56

Gentlemen you said you would return at the appropriate time!! No need to wait further. Exoneration comes in many forms and stages. The 1st stage is now set! The form is visable and growing. Goldbug virus is circling the globe.
Mr GreshamWoke up#13888312/7/05; 08:59:31

"Woke up, it was a Limit Up morning,
and the first thing that I saw..." (apologies to Joni Mitchell, "Chelsea Morning")

was the gold chart spiking upward, past the borders of the graphs meant to contain them.

Yes, '99 and '01 had me going, too. Third time's the charm?

Goldilox, you been beltin' 'em out!

Gandalf the WhiteWOWSERS !!! --check the CHART at the Link ! <;-)#13888412/7/05; 09:26:52

THE YELLOW is becoming just like predicting the WEATHER in the GREAT PACIFIC NORTHWEST !!
(Just wait five minutes and it will change !)

Gandalf the WhiteANOTHER (Thank YOU, SIR)-- chart ! <;-)#13888512/7/05; 09:38:35

THIS one is my FAVORITE !
I show it to all my friends and ask them if any of their stocks have done as well, and if they can guess which "stock" it is !
AND, YES, I have all my eggs in this one "stock" !!!

Galearis@ Pritcho re: Re Uptick (138865)#13888612/7/05; 09:42:11

That post took a LOT longer than usual to write,,,because I had to delete, rephrase and tone down so much. I used to post on Kitco and he was one of the main reasons that I left that forum.

Since then I read his stuff from time to time and wondered,,,no, was dumbfounded by the difference in style. Gone was the "in your face", mocking insults, to be replaced with one of humility and respect for his readers.

That I knew was pretence, of course.

I always considered his interests sourced from being a major short in silver, and much of what he said was "disinformation".

But in the real world,...

We all know that silver has been outperforming gold of late,,,and will continue to do so in all probability. The reasons are all too obvious in my locality of Ontario. There really isn't any silver outside of ScotiaMocatta in Toronto. My contacts - who are dealers - inform me that it is simply not out there for sale. Heck, I know of dealers who are buying what does turn up and hoarding it! Buy it wherever you can find it!

This is REAL! (smile)




YGMGandalf.....Here is Your Basket of Stocks#13888712/7/05; 09:45:53

Show us the nest with the rest 'O Wizard'!!!!
YGMThat was basket # 1#13888812/7/05; 09:52:47

This is # 2...What does # 10 look like?
YGMSecutrity working pic deleted.#13888912/7/05; 09:55:40

this may work
Gandalf the WhiteThanks YGM ! BUT -----#13889012/7/05; 09:58:38

NAW !!

SmeagolOf waterfalls... and cliffs!#13889112/7/05; 10:10:38¤cy=EUR&x=9&y=11&avg1=&avg2=&bench0_dropdown=&pers_einst=0&sCat=IND&sTab=bigchart&hist=5y&DEBUG=0&sSym=GLD.FX1&type=CONNECTLINE&sWkn=n%2Fa&sIsin=n%2Fa

Sssir Gandalf...check out that favorite chart of Euros! ~8-)


OvSGoldilox.#13889212/7/05; 10:18:50

I'd like to "finetune" my
previous post:
Scotia Capital's subsidiary
ScotiaMocatta was/is allegedly
one of the two largest shorts
in the silver market.
I was always wondering how
these shorts would make-good
and here we can see them in
action. I don't know if it is
an action of desparation or
was planned long time ago. For
decades those shorts must have
been reaping a fortune and now
it's time to give some of that
back (If they are still short
buying into Silver Wheaton can
be considered a hedge-operation).

Gandalf the WhiteWOWSERS, Sir Smeagol -- that Euro-Gold chart shows ---#13889312/7/05; 10:22:11

YES, THE 350 Euro BARRIER was hard to breach, BUT in the last few MONTHS -- BREAKOUT !
It looks as if gold is headed "TO THE MOON" in ALL currencies !
Did not SOMEONE tell us that would happen ?

Druid(No Subject)#13889412/7/05; 10:51:13

Druid: It's fun watching those well trained tele-prompting reading clowns on the parrot box almost choke up quoting the price of gold. I'm sure it's making some them violently ill. But hey, they look good.

Bugs we're literally watching a paradigm shift take place right before our eyes, a financial coup of sorts in plain sight, but Oh! So misunderstood.

TownCrierIf you believe yourself to be among those who are frozen in their tracks... (ref. earlier post)#13889512/7/05; 10:51:26

Click or call and ask for the buyer-friendly 'Gold Ownership Starter Kit' from USAGOLD to help get you moving in the right direction.

It'll probably be the easiest thing you'll do all day. Welcome to the realm of gold ownership -- you are now Master of your Portfolio, no longer mastered by uncertainty.

TOLL FREE 1-800-869-5115


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Especially designed for those who are taking their first step...#13889612/7/05; 10:53:58">gold ownership starter kit
balzacGOLDILOX YOUR 138872#13889712/7/05; 11:04:56

Your statement "1000s of americans, abandoned possibly murdered" what were you refering to?

GoldiloxChange of "Spin"#13889812/7/05; 11:15:48

For the less politically minded, let me adjust my first post this morning.


"They came for our guns, and promised security. They came for our homes, and foreclosed us to the streets. They came for our gold, and arrested us as "terrorists"!


"They came for our guns, and promised security. They came for our homes, and foreclosed us to the streets. They came for our gold, and left us swimming in bank debt!"

Not that different in reality, but maybe better focused for this audience.

TownCrierGold's 24-Year High Due to Central Bank Buying#13889912/7/05; 11:19:32,+09:28+AM

BALTIMORE, Dec. 7 -- Gold hit a 24-year record high on Wednesday, rising against all major currencies and all major commodities. While most believe that this surge is due to worries over US inflation and strong retail demand in the Far East, NY Times best-selling author Addison Wiggin asserts that the yellow metal's soaring price has more to do with buying from second and third tier central banks who find themselves burdened with US dollar reserves.

Despite recent dollar strength, central bankers are increasingly exploring alternatives to U.S. and European currencies, as well as stocks and bonds.

"In the past month, Russia, Argentina and South Africa decided to increase the amount of gold in their reserves - and Japan is likely to follow suit," says Wiggin, whose book, Empire of Debt debuted at the #6 spot on the NY Times bestseller list this week, and was listed by the Economist as one of the top ten books that will "tell you what's really going on."

^---(from url)---^

Better still, those who have been tuned in to USAGOLD for the past seven years have ALREADY learned and know "what's really going on".

Between MK's book 'The ABCs of Gold Investing' and FOA's sure-footed guidance on 'The Gold Trail', augmented by the daily news and opinion being chewed up and digested by everyone sharing their thoughts here at the Forum, you guys are well beyond everyone else on the power curve of knowledge.

And as proof of your superior position, you have gold to show for it. Keep up the good work.


TownCrier"Gold fever" hits Shanghai#13890012/7/05; 11:34:30

BEIJING, Dec. 7 -- Trading in gold investment products reached a feverish pitch in Shanghai as the price of the yellow metal yesterday shot to an 18-year high.

It reached 131 yuan (US$16.15) per gram, up around 1 per cent from the price on Monday. There were many who believed the price would rise even further, traders said. Trading was hectic, helping to push the price even higher.

The 'physical' gold trading product "Jinhangjia" jointly put out by the Industrial and Commercial Bank (ICBC) Shanghai Branch and the Shanghai Gold Exchange also saw a change in trading patterns.

The product is different from paper trading, which is not for delivery; Jinhangjia allows buyers to demand the physical delivery of gold, with expenses of only 2 yuan (24 US cents) for each kilogram.

The price of "Jinhangjia" exceeded 130 yuan per gram yesterday, an increase of over 30 per cent over that of the previous months.

The price of Beijing Olympics Gold, a gold souvenir expected to be put out later this month, is set to exceed 140 yuan per gram...

The exchange dismissed the rumour that the rising gold price in China was caused partially by speculative investment from overseas.

^---(from url)---^

A very interesting and telling dismissal by the exchange -- in other words, their sentiment is "nuts to speculation, gold is rising FUNDAMENTALLY."


TownCrierJapanese hedgers keep gold at dizzy heights#13890112/7/05; 11:43:14

(FT) December 7 2005 -- Gold reached its highest level since April 1981 when it hit an intra-day peak of $510.30 a troy ounce yesterday in Asian trading. Japanese investors were particularly active as they looked to use the metal as a hedge against the declining yen.

Gold is now back at levels last seen when it was falling from its all-time peak of $850 reached in January 1980, which equates to about $2,000 in today's terms.

^---(from url)---^

Why is gold globally, fundamentally strong? Because, as everyone everywhere else has always seen it a bit more clearly than most dollar-blindered Americans, the alternative to the liquidity of gold is merely paper. That is to say, when you know you can't put long-term trust in paper, gold is the natural universal savings asset of choice.


GoldiloxAmerican "victims"#13890212/7/05; 11:44:42

@ Balzac,

I'm referring to the allegations by sworn Congressional eye-witnesses that the seven evenly spaced levee breeches were blown to save "downtown", while sacrificing less commercially viable neghborhoods. Check the URL to find the proceedings on streaming video. They usually take a few days to post, but watch for "Dec 6th, N.O. levee witnesses" or something like that.

There is also a new paper out by a physicist who used frame-by-frame timecode analysis to support his thesis that the WTC fell at a nearly unimpeded gravitic acceleration rate, requiring virtually zero resistance from below to accomplish. If each floor was collapsing onto the floor below it, the resistance as the mass encountered supports in the floor below would add a measurable delay at each encounter. As a video technology engineer, I can assure you that NTSC timecode is a very precise 29.95 fps, supplying 898 distinct, equi-distant measurement points over a 30 second interval.

I haven't found the source yet, but will post a reference when I do. I really want to see the raw numbers to give it full due diligence.

TownCrierSouth American gold#13890312/7/05; 11:45:11

Only a final few remain!


melda laurePOG/POE.#13890412/7/05; 16:24:00

Price of gold in eggses: circa 1999, $260 / $0.99 or 263dozen per ounce.

circa 2005, $519 / $2.66 or 250 dozen per ounce. And that's before bird flu.

Is it gold that flies to the moon, or is it paper that dissolves into nothing?

R PowellGalearis // silver, of course#13890512/7/05; 16:27:53

Hello again fellow silver lover.
Again we tend to see the silver market in the same light but again we hold some differences of opinion. These can be traced back to the basic workings or function of the market.

I, too, remember both Uptick and Ted Butler's postings from years gone by. Both were often treated very rudely, imho, but perhaps civility is the uncommon norm here, not everywhere. Thanks CPM.

Like yourself, I agree that selling more physical than exists is...must be...naked selling. Theorically, if matter how high...was no object, and the longs stood for delivery, there would be some default. Also, theorically, if pigs had wings, they could fly. No insult intended, but I do not find short selling unusual. It is an intrical part of the market. If the shorts must cover at a lose, I will not cry. It happens every day in many markets. The markets (silver included) allow both buying and selling, whether they possess the physical or not, and whether enough physical exists or not. We know this, but we disagree with whether this selling should be allowed or not. Uptick and myself find no fault here. You and Butler cry market manipulation.

Now, what market mechanism exists to counter this short selling? Imho, the markets are balanced, ultimately, by the very reason that they exist, namely the transfer of physical product from producers or sellers to users or buyers. This benefits everybody. You hit the nail on the head with these words...

"IMO we are in the transition phase to the purely physical market and we should see things really start to fly in the early New Year."

Agreed! Physical demand overpowers speculative or technical trading. The copper market has been a perfect example of spite of a rogue Chinese trader shorting so very much copper. Demand for physical will prevail in market pricing...even to the extent of totally bypassing the market, if necessary, to obtain product! Spot copper is about $2.24, higher than any future contract...appreciably higher! Where is the arbitrage? What a powerhouse market! Is silver next? There are reports of end users now bypassing the copper market altogether to obtain the supply they must have. I will not be surprised if this occurs also with silver as I'm no different from anyone else searching for large silver stockpiles anywhere on this earth of ours. I can not find any evidence of any + simply don't believe that they exist. I can not refute Butler's basic premise (but don't agree with his manipulation theory). But the silver market does NOT believe this. I say so as I believe the POS would be many times what it now is if the market players..even a simple majority of them...did think thus. There is, as we know, so little other than the yearly Silver Survey offered for fundamental numbers. Silver does not trade on fundamental info, it will have to be forced into realisation of the supply/demand situation.

I'm not trying to change your opinion that the silver market has been manipulated over the years. The difference of opinion is almost mute as it changes nothing concerning the future POS. I agree that more silver was sold than exists, but do not consider this obscene or unlawful or even unusual. It's almost all a paper game (such a small amount of trade is settled with physical)...profit or dollars and cents only. Demand for physical will (and is now?) changing this with a vengence + may eventually cause some severe short covering...again settled in fiat, not metal.

During the last huge silver run from about $4.01 to an overnight high in the $8.50s (which now has been surpassed!!!!), Kaplan warned that the move was speculative in nature and not demand driven. Silver eventually crashed all the way back down to about $5.50. By my reckoning, he was a lot more right than wrong. And, yes, this is probably exactly what an always silver bear would say...but the market proved him, I'm curious as to what he thinks of this current move. Myself, I'm looking for signs that it is indeed demand (fundamentally) driven. If I knew for sure, it would alter my risk tolerance in the paper games I play. And yes, I know about the low risk of physical possession. I do hold bars and coins. My speculative money, however, is attracted to the life changing potential of leverage, which I do NOT advocate for the general investor! Indeed, I advocate buying good delivery 100 ounce bars from MK and company.

We watch together! I always appreciate your input and your watchfulness on the physical. That's the ultimate power piece in any is not complicated..simple 101 economics of supply and demand, no? Say hello for me to the rest of the silver fan community on those sites that I do not enter.

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#13890612/7/05; 16:40:18">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

WEDNESDAY Market Excerpts

Gold rises further on heavy demand, light supply

December 7 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed near their highest level in 23 years Wednesday and silver prices closed at a level not seen since 1987 with the recent rally in the precious metals showing no signs of running out of steam as solid demand and high energy prices fuel inflation concerns.

"Gold has remained very strong despite expectations of pullbacks and bouts of selling because there has been a group who has heavily played the downside and were usually rewarded soon after," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter. "This time however, they are caught between a rock and a hard place thanks to very strong physical buying and momentum players now flocking to gold," he said.

Gold for February delivery finished at $517.80, up $4 for the session having earlier peaked at $520.30, the highest futures level since February 1983.

"We continue to be positive on gold, believing that healthy underlying supply/demand fundamentals in the form of Indian fabrication, Chinese retail investment, and recycled Middle Eastern petrodollar flows, set the stage for the next round of macro/monetary catalysts to enter the market," said Citigroup analyst John Hill.

The surge in gold prices of the past several months has come even as the dollar has strengthened and the Federal Reserve has raised U.S. interest rates, going against the typical pattern for the metal, said Hill.

"Gold should be well-positioned if the U.S. economy slows sharply, given debt and dual-deficit strains that would likely emerge, or if the Fed attempts to reflate its way past near-term growth impediments for the metal," he said.

"A seasonal correction in the first quarter of 2006 (as seen in 2003 and 2004) would not be a surprise," he said, although he continues to recommend that investors remain buyers of gold and of gold equities at current levels.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---

Buongiorno!Sir Goldilox --of levies and towers#13890712/7/05; 16:46:41

"They" set explosive charges in the New Orleans levies to save downtown? I see. Could it be that the levies were done in by water currents that they were neither designed or maintained for? And is downtown not much higher anyway? Just how, exactly would destroying the levies help save anything extra with that much water coming down? Mysterious.

As for the towers, I am informed that asbestos insulation was not installed above about floor sixty. (That is why Osama targeted that level....the uninsulated steel would weaken more rapidly.) After burning for about one hour, the steel supports got hot enough to lose their strength and collapsed. Rather than going floor-by-floor,as we might think, could not several floors, weakened, about the same time --give way--and with the huge weight of forty-something floors above added--just take it on down? Again, setting and timing those charges to go off just right would be a bit difficult? Not impossible.

We see these interesting stories about McVea having help(federal?) at Oklahoma City and that FDR baited the Japanese and let Pearl Harbor go (saving the carriers, though).

Well,I'll see your Waco burn-out and raise you a gunner on the grassy knoll. (And never believe that even a good marksman can get off three aimed shots at a moving target, using a telescope sight on a bolt-action rifle in three point six seconds.) We probably all like a good yarn--but more facts are always helpful.

GoldendomeConsumer credit growth turns negative.#13890812/7/05; 16:55:01

Dec 7, 2005 — WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer credit unexpectedly slid by a record $7.20 billion
(-$7.2 billion) in October, on a big drop in loans taken for cars and boats, a Federal Reserve report showed on Wednesday.

The central bank said total consumer debt outstanding fell 4 percent to a seasonally adjusted $2.157 trillion from a revised $2.164 trillion in September.

The rate of decline was the steepest since December 1990, the Fed told reporters.

Wall Street analysts polled by Reuters had expected a rise of $5.0 billion in consumer credit in October.

The Fed said non-revolving credit — made up of closed-end loans for cars, boats, education expenses and holidays — fell $5.58 billion in October.

Revolving credit, which includes credit and charge cards, dipped $1.63 billion.

Goldendome: Do you believe this report portends inflation or deflation?

-- And here I had been taking the fall-off in credit card use personal. Guess I just need to buckup and recognize that if my store goes, it won't be alone.

Friend of mine told me that our local Wally World had done over a hundred grand by 3 in the afternoon over the weekend. I told him that I'd consider that a nice quarter (of the year).

Max RabbitzSir Goldilox #13890912/7/05; 17:05:44

I don't see how blowing holes in the levey would make any difference to who got flooded. Downtown New Orleans is on high ground, as is the wealthy garden district and the French Quarter. This is where the expensive property is……because it is on relatively high ground. These areas were not saved by deliberately breeched levies but elevation. I understand that water rose throughout the city until it was equal to Lake Ponchartrain. Even Tulane University in the west end was somewhat flooded. Only when the city was completely flooded (except for the high ground) and when the water had ceased to flow through the breeches, could the levies be repaired and the pumps started.

I believe the scientist with the trade towers "paper" you referred to is Steven Jones of BYU. He is a particle physicist who worked on "cold fusion", not a structural engineer. The University has censored him for bringing his paper to the public without prior peer review, the proper thing to do. A brief review of his points indicated to me why he choose to avoid peer review. Many of his issues were addressed a long time ago in an article by structural engineers and physicists published in the Popular Science. Now, if Professor Jones could just get cold fusion to work, I'd give him points and read the whole paper more closely. Until then I'm betting on peak oil and encourage Black Blade to work late nights. It's getting rather chilly for so early in the winter.

GoldiloxStories#13891012/7/05; 17:31:07

@ Bongiorno,

I recognize the proliferation of stories around any large scale event, and highly recommend checking them thoroughly, as opposed to blind acceptance of either the "unofficial theories" or the "official byline".

The testimony of explosions at the levees was submitted to Congress by eye-witnesses. I heard that myself last night. All they asked for was explosive residue tests, which seems easy enough to do, and offers no downside to comply. The seven evenly-spaced breeches was verified by fly-over photos published the day after the collapse. Maybe the weak points in the construction were evenly-spaced, as well. But good questions.

Also, the Canadian press ran stories of a gun battle at one of the levees between FEMA and NO police, leaving three FEMA ops dead. It's even more interesting that this hasn't been explored, as one might easily assume a tragic "mistaken identity", but complete US media silence is surprising, given the many hours of press dedicated to one lost "party-girl" in Aruba. Maybe that's the pont where the NO police went AWOL, as described by the citizens of NO.

Not sure how familiar you are with jet diesel fuel, but it does not burn nearly as hot as gasoline (it's about the same caloric intensity as charcoal lighter fluid), and the idea of melting steel outside of an oxigenated furnace gets complete guffaws from my metal-working friends. I've yet to melt my Weber no matter how high the flame!

I've watched a lot of building demolition videos, as I love their artful pyrotechnics, and only the very best examples came down with precision of the towers. No one has adequately explained why WTC-7, which was not hit hit by anything and suffered only small roof fires, came tumbling down.

I don't claim to have the answers, but I always wonder why anyone who asks the questions is immediately branded as a kook or traitor. Is asking questions anti-patriotic in our new Patrtiot-Act Republic?

GoldiloxTheory quelching#13891112/7/05; 17:48:25

@ Bongiorno and Max Rabbitz.

There have been more solid refutations of gold market manipulation and naked shorting than the whimpy 9-11 report put up. Do you as quickly jump to the establishment byline for these, as well? or do you actually compare both sides?

The problem with Peer Review, is that only Government feed-trough scientists are allowed to review. Reviews that come from outside the government trough are summarily rejected. Kinda like gubmint inflation and unemployment numbers.

Einstein rarely submitted to Peer review, nor did some of his contemporaries.

And we all know how well Peer Review worked for Galilleo, Nicola Tesla and Wilhelm Reich! Our modern Inquisition is less physical, but every bit as career threatening to anyone questioning the "byline".

Check the URL for an independent scientist's thoughts on the Peer Review "system".

Buongiorno!Sir Goldilox--yarns being spun...#13891212/7/05; 18:13:25

Yes, JP-4 is closer to my charcoal fluid than to aviation fuel....but if you are comparing the weight of your turkey on your weber to the WTC..I must say with respect uh, not the same. (Unless your turkey weighs much more than mine.)

Also, steel does not have to melt? to lose its strength...others? And the towers may have had some combustables inside, which may have contributed to a blast furnace effect ...think of a chimney.

(Way out of my depth already, and those who question, (whatever) myself included, are no more or less patriotic than others...IMHO.)

Glad to see you also like Webers--last count, I have six of them...wonderful little friends, they are!

TownCrierGoldilox, Off-Topic King...#13891312/7/05; 18:26:15

Please touch your toes with a slight bend at the knees, dear sir, as I prepare to polish my boots with your keister.


OvSVery indelicato#13891412/7/05; 18:54:30

Knight Keister Meister...
Easy does it, please...

Ned@ Goldilox#13891512/7/05; 18:56:26

I should save this for the weekend but for Randy's sake I will keep it short....perhaps we can continue this on nthe weekend.

Believe you me, I have studied this 911 business and in particular the collapse of the 2 WTC towers. I am not a physicist or an engineer but I have eyeballs so I need to ask one question.

Focusing on a good, clear clip of either building one can see that the plane has damaged several floors. When the building begins its collapse the floors above the damage simutaneously fall as one onto the damaged floor(s). It is then the building collapse floor by floor. There is a floor by floor momentary pause. Watch for these 2 aspects.

Here is my question. All the conspiracy advocates claim that the floors were rigged with bombs. Ok, so here is the question that I have asked a hundred people and no one has answered.

The floors above the damage fell as one but the floors below fell one by one so how did the bombers know which floor(s) the plane was going to hit so as to 'arrange' the 'orderly' demolition??

Talk to you on the weekend !!

Ned...and GOLD NEWS !!#13891612/7/05; 19:00:35

Spot adds another buck and some cracking $517

Feb gold cracks $520 at 521 & change

London PM fix sets new 24 year record.

....and my favorite....

HUI 2-year resistance of 258 was smoked today settling at 260 and change.

Tomorrow could be a VERY, VERY exciting day.

mikalWorld weary of smoke and mirrors?#13891712/7/05; 19:24:46 The premise of this analysis seems to lean on the revived hope that people will tire of war, that government is incapable of subterfuge, that blind self-righteous indignation and premature, knee-jerk reactions are American as baseball and apple pie, patriotic and good for the world.
This is like saying that woman should never have been given the right to vote or hold office or that every inch of the earth should be fouled by internal combustion engines before we go to alternative tech. DUH!
NUKE IRAN OVER BOURSE? - 'Prophet Talk' - Anthony Wile - 12/06/05 - FMNN
However serious the assumptions and implications for the IMS, money and human life in this, please consider too that martial law courts operate today, as in admiralty law and corporate law. And that we need a national bank(not central) to discharge our debt, establish a sovereign republic and honest weights and measures (reputable and reliable currency and codes). Sometimes the hardest standard to maintain is the simplest.

SundeckThe golden road...#13891812/7/05; 19:41:32

Ahhh...yes,Sir Ned,

Is this golden light of Dawn not grand?
Watching shadows pass gigantic on the sand,
As we take the Golden Road to Samarkand.

(...with apologies to J E Flecker.)


PRITCHO"Dominate. Intimidate. Control." -- - - - #13891912/7/05; 20:13:22

A compelling read for anyone contemplating flying to or from the USA. - - - Amazing that they get away with it.
OvSWTC#13892012/7/05; 20:19:32

I haven't joined this dis-
cussion and I think it wise
to wait for the weekend for
this subject. But since the
weekend crowd probable is
thin and perhaps different
I'll just have a few words
and then shut up about this.

When even one of our illustri-
ous members from overseas has
definite conclusions about it,
I think it worthwhile to ask
for caution.

One of the most damaging infer-
ences are made of the alleged
fact that someone a few days
before the disaster went short
to the tune of millions of
options on the two airlines
involved; and no investigation
established who. It's not pos-
sible not to trace it down.
I'd say they did and then were
& are in the position to black-
mail those to the tune of mill.$
of oil, gold, whatever...

Bush, Rumsfeld, and others would
never condone or think up such
monstrocity. Believe me, they
just don't have that glint in
their eyes. Of course, there
could be a secret 5th column
within the government doing such
evil without those above them.
Unless they are uncovered I'd
be skeptical of the most outra-
gious conspiracy accusations...

As I said, that is the fist and
last time I'll speak on this
topic. Back to what inspires us,
and to the means (G & S) to let
us dream and do our contribution
to this most phantastic planet
and universe. Cheers. OvS

RAPYGM -Gandolf is hiding his eggs in these cartons#13892112/7/05; 20:23:43

Basket #3
David LinkleyWhat's with this gold bull?#13892212/7/05; 20:49:12

The New Zealand dollar and US consumer credit today both went splot! Oil and natural gas are firming up into the cold season, Snow said the US budget deficit will worsen in 06', and I'm hearing from people in the trenches of home and auto sales that business is brutal right now. Former President Carter said today he didn't think that US troops would ever leave Iraq. News articles from Asia mention increased central bank purchases of gold especially Russia. The COT remains very short and one can only imagine what sort of exit strategy may exist if gold keeps grinding much higher. The bottom line is the world economy is slowing, countries are racing each other to devalue their currencies and Bernanke and his helicopters are waiting in the wings. I'm glad all of those ECU gold sales are saving the world, I'll sleep better tonight.
Gandalf the WhiteWOWSERS <;-)#13892312/7/05; 22:41:53

SOMETHING is going on behind THE curtains.
We have not seen anything like this move in GOLD before !
AND, you can not believe what I am NOW seeing in my CRYSTAL BALL !!
HANG on for the RIDE !
"TO THE MOON, Alice !"

GoldiloxTopical restrictions#13892412/7/05; 23:12:53

I was still under the impression that 24-7 "Open Topic" was declared a few months ago. If that was rescinded and I missed it, I heartily apologize.

I will stay closer to home.

My sole attempt was to offer evidence that those who flagrantly manipulate us to collective financial ruin are not in the least bit above other related heinous manipulations, as money is but a means to an end for their ambitions.

Watching Wolfowitz on CSPAN right now. He calmly said: "although the charter of the WB states that it is apolitical, I must interpret that differently."

GoldiloxWhy we may NEED inflafla#13892512/8/05; 01:15:19

I ran across this snip from Ike's oft-quoted farewell speech.

In his farewell address to the nation in 1961, President Eisenhower said:

"...we have been compelled to create a permanent armaments industry of vast proportions. Added to this, three and a half million men and women are directly engaged in the defense establishment. We annually spend on military security more than the net income of all United States corporations."


Aside from the M-I complex warnings we usually hear, this morsel contains an even more compelling story. If the expenditures of just one part of government exceeded all Corp income in the US 45 years ago, what mechanism other than inflation could keep it afloat? Perhaps Bernanke's "measured inflafla" theories are not so obtuse, but actually reflect the only means possible to continue funding a government spending machine that is exponentially out-growing the economy.

We talk often about "peak oil". Is our world-wide burgeoning debt burden an example of "peak government"? Is an appropriate proportion of blame for our current problems placed on the consumer's "gotta have it now" philosophy, when the government's (overt + covert) borrowed expenditures take more money than a healthy economy can produce?

One of Bucky Fuller's (who is often labeled a socialist) warnings was that government spending cannot outpace private production without civilization experiencing retardation as a direct effect.

These are pretty "topical" questions if anyone wants to take a stab at them.

P.S. The link is about something entirely different, but the quote is real.

KnallgoldGold geplapper#13892612/8/05; 01:29:36

Heard yesterday on TV,analysts warn that the Goldbubble might soon pop.

If I would have to give a # for Gold being in a bubble,it would be,conservatively,about 100'000$/oz.

Black BladeOf Carnival Barkers, Cannibals, Stocks and Gold#13892712/8/05; 03:15:53

The Carnival Barkers on CNBC are a bit frightened lately as they watch Gold push through $500/oz. Yesterday Joe Kernan "squawked" about all the email he gets from "Goldbugs" waiting for the apocalypse. Personally I doubt that "Goldbugs" are anxiously hoping for end-of-the-world scenarios but apparently Joe buys into the stereotype.

The reason the POG has rocketed has not been because of the flat-lining US Dollar – although that is a small part of it, nor has it been on inflation concerns. Note that the POG has risen in spite of the US Dollar gaining against all other currencies and the government agencies releasing "data" suggesting "benign" inflation. That Gold is rising against a supposedly "strong" dollar really has the Carnival Barkers bummed. True, all currencies are weak and getting weaker. The US Dollar is gaining against even weaker currencies. So what!

No, the reason that Gold is rising is because of very strong physical demand from China, India, and the Middle East, and now even here in the west more and more investors are looking for other hard assets including precious metals now that the real estate bubble is deflating. China has liberalized laws governing personal gold ownership. A rapidly emerging middle class in India with more wealth and an affinity toward savings in Gold. Petrodollars looking for a home in the Middle East where the culture here too favors Gold.

Miners have yet to make much headway in exploration efforts and to get new mines into production. Obviously demand will outstrip supply for many years. What the Carnival Barkers do not understand are the most basic principles of "demand and supply". We can forgive them though as nearly all of CNBC's Carnival Barkers have degrees in journalism (or biochemistry in the case of Joe Kernan). These people are not "experts" but simply salesmen pitching stocks and stock market cheerleaders. The last thing they want to see is Gold rise to fair market value and compete against stocks and bonds for consumer dollars.

I always get a good chuckle when they say Gold is in a bear market and has not recovered to the temporary spike to $850/oz in 1980. Joe Kernan did say that Gold was a bad investment because it did not recover to $800/oz. Well that's nice, but all that tells me is that we have at least another $300/oz to the upside and perhaps another $800/oz beyond that adjusted for inflation. The argument Joe makes is utterly meaningless. Gold was also held down as mega-hedgers conspired with bullion banks to drive competitors out of business. Today I get a good laugh as mega-hedgers Barrick and Placer Dome argue over the cost of a merger. To me that is like two cannibals on a deserted island arguing over who to have for dinner!

Heck, the Nasdaq has not recovered to its high of about 5050. I mean the Nasdaq is over 55% off its high! Using Joe's reasoning, the last thing you would want to invest in are stocks! They have been horrible investments since March 2000! The DOW is still quite a bit off its high as well. The DOW wallows at 10811, well off its all time high of 11,908.50 on January 14, 2000. That is still over 9.2% off its high. Not bad for an index of a mere 30 stocks but still a loser. Then there is the S&P 500 closing at 1257, just 18% off its all time high of 1527 in March 2000! Yessirree, the stock indices have been horrible investments since the crash 6 years ago. Of course many people lost their retirements, hopes and dreams back then. Those who bailed out of techs, dot.bombs, and tele.gones and turned to precious metals and energy like many of us did very well. Those who remained as Joe Kernan and his fellow Carnival Barkers directed lost everything. Oh yeah – "booyah"!

Yep, the Carnival Barkers are running scared as they watch Gold and Silver streak higher, and they are also wetting themselves as they watch energy prices defy gravity. Yet these clowns tell us "all is well" and the economy is doing just fine. In the same breath they tremble with fear as the prices of hard assets rise and stocks look weak once again. Another amusing point is that they always trott out some alleged investing "expert" who predicts some higher sticker price for the DOW by year-end. I admit that I was amused that the DOW has been trickling down for several days now.

No, all the CNBC Carnival Barkers whining about the Gold price have done nothing but point out that Gold remains grossly under-valued. This secular bull has a long way to go. We are still in the early stages of a long-term secular bull market for precious metals and energy. So cheer up. We can expect a couple of minor corrections with each leg up but the trend is our friend!

- Black Blade

YGMBlack Blade .... Thanks!#13892812/8/05; 03:34:43

Nice late nite treat to read your accumulated musings when you arrive home from work. You are missed in your absences...YGM
NedIf you are watching the London PM fix....#13892912/8/05; 04:26:54

London PM fix yesterday, Dec. 7, 2005:


takes out 22 year high on Feb. 16, 1983:


Next stop, 24 year high on March 26, 1981:


Then some "open air" to Jan. 21, 1981:


MKBlack Blade#13893012/8/05; 06:39:15

With your permission, I would like to put your last post up at the Daily Market Report. Good analysis.
White RoseHow to predict the gold market these days#13893112/8/05; 07:19:25

Step one: remember the general trading area for gold in asia around 8-11 pm EST.

Step two: expect gold to be about $1-$2 above the previous Comex close at 6-7 am EST

Step three: expect gold to be about $1-$2 below the previous close just after the Comex open at 8:20 PM

Step four: gold goes above water in 1-3 hours of Comex trading

Step five: gold closes on the Comex at the number observed in step one.

I do expect a real breakdown after gold hits $560-$580. In the meantime, it is fun to see how predictiable it is getting.

R PowellBlack blade#13893212/8/05; 07:29:28

Thanks for the thoughts, always look for them.
May I add that the composite index numbers you mentioned are also somewhat altered or massaged toward the upside every time a company falters and is simply dropped from the index, replaced by another. I believe (not sure?) that an index like the S+P 500 is simply the 500 companies that trade on the exchange with the highest market cap. If I'm right about this, (someone please correct me if I'm not) and if market cap is a valid indication that a company is doing well, then a company that doesn't prosper is replaced by one that does. This tends to keep the index membership filled by those who are doing well as opposed to those who are not.

I also have never seen anyone mention an inflation adjusted index gain. After all, if a true value is one represented by an inflation adjusted number when long term comparisons are used to support arguments, shouldn't these index numbers also be so adjusted? If so, then perhaps stocks are not even holding even...??

Thanks also for sharing your opinion that the metals' upside is based on fundamentals, rather than what those peoples' television stock promoters usually attribute any gold price rise to. Why must a rising POG always only mean doom + gloom, why overlook the obvious? Gold trades as a commodity and must respond to supply/demand as surely as wheat, coffee, crude or soybeans do, no? Perhaps it's just that the idea of a gold or especially silver shortage in the physical market hasn't occured in our lifetimes..? But one day, I suspect, the sleeper will awaken.

Have you any information, news or overheard opinions of the supply/demand situation with silver? TIA

Chris PowellFinancial Times notes that there's a 'substantial buyer' for gold, maybe a central bank#13893312/8/05; 08:05:37

By Kevin Morrison
Financial Times, London
Wednesday, December 7, 2005

Gold rose to a 24½-year high on Wednesday, touching $516.50 a troy ounce on Japanese private investor buying as well as benefiting from the flow of investment funds into commodities markets, which has pushed many metal prices to record peaks.

Paul Merrick, vice president commodities at RBC Capital, said the strength in the gold market has raised the possibility of central bank buying.

"There is concerted buying by a significant buyer, and it could be a central bank," said Mr Merrick. Central banks have been net sellers of gold for the last 40 years, although there have been occasional purchases. However, recent positive comments on gold by officials from Argentinian, Russian and South African central banks have given bullion traders hope that some banks may start buying again.

Mr Merrick said the 10 per cent rise in the gold price in the past three weeks has not been accompanied by a significant lift in buying of Comex gold futures in New York. Turnover in gold futures on the Tocom exchange in Tokyo was 7.5m ounces, exceeding Comex in New York
by nearly 3m ounces. Normally, Tocom volumes are only one third of those traded on Comex.

"This suggests that there could be another large buyer out there, as there is a concerted effort to buy on any dips in the prices," Mr Merrick said. ...

OvSGoldilox.#13893512/8/05; 08:18:14

Wolfowitz's re-interpretation:

Apolitican Worldbank, into
A politican Worldbank.

I was also unaware that MK
changed the forum policy. I
suppose it's when the political
debate overwhelms our goldforum
some people feel like kicking..
If the policy was not changed
back to the previous one, it
makes sense to voluntarily hold
back. I'd prefer that kind of
self-policing...Up and away.OvS

OvSI need a second cup of coffee.#13893612/8/05; 08:20:35

Apolitical Worldbank, into
A political Worldbank. Mea culpa.

R PowellOvS#13893712/8/05; 08:27:49

Please drip a few extra cups of coffee. I'm long (and have been wrong) coffee. Yah, I know, I should have invested those funds in gold + silver, but there is some there as well and, maybe, as Karen Carpenter said, we've only just begun.
Galearis@Rich re Ag naked shorting - and delivery problems at COMEX#13893812/8/05; 08:51:08

Hi Rich,

I ran into another uptick on another forum,,,and it would seem that the USAGOLD may have to put up with my outlandish points of view a wee bit more than average. (Smile) But the need for politeness and respect of different points of view within the framework of discussions is very important to the health of forums. Food fights are poison to forums. Injured feelings lead to the position like: "why would I post anything to help THAT so-and-so!" The Kitco forum has lost any number of posters because of this and Bart finally had to rein in some of the excessive types posting there. Yep, and USAGOLD does not have these problems.

But as for the paper market,,,I still side with Ted Butler's view: unrestrained naked shorting is an illegal act and a manipulation of markets. I don't have a problem with selling short,,,,but I do when it breaks basic commodity law. The silver market commercial short population has been doing it for years. Just because the CFTC refuses to acknowledge that this is going on (politics again) does not refute the fact of it. There is something similar going on the equities side,,,with a pending (?) scandal involving massive short attacks (it is even alleged that the shorts do not have to cover - I don't understand why ) that may turn out to be just a part of the continuum malaise of the American equities markets at the (a) point of collapse (?) I feel that this will be my position on the whole abusive shorting scheme, and an area (at least in the silver and gold markets) about which we can easily agree to disagree.

But the theme may be a moot one anyway:

You mentioned news/insights, I think? Just in from my brother, Rhody. At long last there is just an inkling of interest in this subject from another forum and the following timely (for this task at hand) email discussion ensued:

[I guess this chap doesn't get Midas.] My brother and I, and now Nick
Laird have been all over this data for three months. It does explain why
gold and silver are trading differently. Simply put, instead of the usual
2% of OI delivery rate, large percentages of the OI are being called for
delivery, at prices that have been suppressed by those same futures (paper
gold) pricing system. If only 2% of people buying futures typically take
delivery, a large commercial short can naked short the futures market (sell
futures for which he has no actual metal to deliver if called) with
impunity. It is now obvious to these mega short sellers that to sell naked
short is lethal. That means the volume of selling is imploding and gold
and silver are doing a melt up. For the first time in twenty years, this
market is beginning to respond like a physical market. Gold and silver
are both in deficits of supply, so you know what that will do to the price.
Even the paper price. Now that there is a raid on COMEX stockpiles, it
remains to be seen if we will get a default. From here, it looks like the
silver market is at risk of default.

Regards Rhody.
And of course with the usual big FWIW tacked on at the end. Note, however, that Ted Butler considers copper to be much more critical with its current difficulties than what is going on with silver (and I presume, gold) deliveries.

Maybe this sort of thing happens behind the scenes every decade or so. What do you think? I rather agree that the commercials are positioning themselves for the new evolution in this market. If even half of what their short exposure is true, it won't help most of them. Keep in mind that the COMEX management will probably limit the size of physical withdrawals. I actually expect this ploy as an attempt to keep the paper market in the metals solvent. Heck if they can do what they do to the POS based on physical WITHDRAWALS out of COMEX ,,,,on average amounting to 1 to 2 million ounces each delivery month,,,then it is not a stretch to expect them to carry on the paper market scheme with (for example) actually limiting the physical withdrawals BY POLICY to exactly these same numbers. Or maybe LESS. But that's conjecture, of course…Apt conjecture, perhaps,,,,but conjecture none the less.

I think the COMEX management is going to try anything to solve this mess!

Lots of room for different views about THESE markets, yes? By my count only 4 people have even commented on what appears to be a run on gold and silver on the COMEX. Go figure! We must be wrong by reason of omission of consensus. (smile)

But I think at least a few of us are watching this breakdown of the paper market,,,and I intend to enjoy it. I've waited a long time for it. Who needs company for something like this? (smile)

Except for a,,,
smug fest.

Best regards,


slingshotGreat Day to be a Goldbug!#13893912/8/05; 09:26:22

Gold had to pass a certain dollar amount for it to catch the eye of small time investors. There is a change in the air when we, Doom and Gloom Goldbugs, become Respectable Goldbugs. It's not here yet but, it is not too far in the future.
In my conversations, with friends on the subject of gold, there has always been a stickler. We can talk all about the reasons ,pro and con, till you say it. The PRICE! The two remarks that followed really bowled me over.

"I remember when gold was $35.00 an ounce."
"I remember when gold was $800.00 an ounce."

So I am thinking, Wow, $35 dollars an ounce. And again, Wow $800 an ounce.

If things cost 10x more than they when gold was $35 then the GOLD TRAIN was blowing its whistle at $350.

There are many people at the station and a few are making their way to the platforms to board the train.

The only thing they have to overcome is the price of the ticket.

I wonder if that Japanese Investor was Japango (spell) whom was in the news awhile back?


TownCrierSouth American Gold#13894112/8/05; 09:56:32

Passing along a quick note that the 'South of the Border' December Buyers' Group special has sold out.

However, it may not yet be too late for you to still get a small piece of the action. Whereas specific shortages have now made full groupings of the five national coins no longer available, assorted components may yet be on an individual or mix-n-match basis, depending upon specific availability.

Call to inquire. 1-800-869-5115


White RosePredicting gold (see previous message)#13894212/8/05; 10:08:31

Asia traded gold at $519 last night. We are just under this now. I would predict we will close Comex between $519 and $520.

If this system really works, you could make a fortune day trading gold.

Flatliner@... delivery problems at COMEX#13894312/8/05; 10:17:46

Galearis, Thank you very much for posting your insights into the COMEX delivery situation in this forum. It is very interesting and seems more then relevant for discussion here (if not, I may find my keister polishing boots).

In an effort to separate hype, from normality, do you, or does anyone on the forum, have access to historical delivery data? It is one thing to be told that, today, there are 6,603 silver contracts up for delivery (over 33 M. oz). But it is quite different to see it in context with the past (graphically). Can anyone create a bar graph that might cover the last 10 years or so?

If not, time will be our teacher.

geReuters : NY gold gains early, near new quarter-century peak#13894412/8/05; 10:19:41

"... the loftiest price [...] since April 1981."
contrarianGalearis--equities market at the point of collapse#13894512/8/05; 10:20:08

After much reflection on this issue, I do still think we are in a secular bear market in equities, and the last three or so years has just been a short-term bull, although trememdously dragged out due to manipulation techniques learned after 87.

And irrespective of what a certain female Bloomberg analyst who has a book out, what's her face says, whose initials are CB, I think, I do still think there is a propping up. People like that are just toeing the party line, and you fast learn on Wall Street that the nail that sticks out quickly gets hammered in. Believe me, I've been there! Sitting next to an "expert" and hearing him say we have low inflation. Ok, he's a guy, and so, he's not like the females who do all the tedious shopping anyways, so what does he know! It's like when George Bush the first went shopping with wifey (probably for the first time in years) and was in wonderment at all the new fangled cash registers. That showed the public how out of touch he was, and one of the reasons he was booted out of 160 Pennsylvania Avenue.

But per Tim Wood at Financial Sense, they certainly can influence the short-term trends, but have no influence over the long-term trend, which is larger that any government or manipulator.

After going back and forth about this, this is my conclusion, that they're trying to manipulate of course, but they're efforts will ultimately fail.

They were, or course, able to beat back the Hindenburg Omen in November, and also Prechter's call for a crash, so their short term tricks are working, but I think long term they're doomed, at at some point it will go down to Dow 3000, first perhaps stopping at 6000 or 7000 on the way.

And it's obvious that stocks will rally, perhaps going over 11,000 by end of year, but that this could be a real nasty bear market trap. But who know, I've been waiting for a resumption of the bear in Autumn 2004, then Autumn 2005 and haven't been right yet! But the third time, in the first quarter, could do the trick, and what a surprise it would be!

Would be interesting to get other thoughts on this. Gold's shocking upswing does seem to put the pedal to the metal, and is the canary in the mine and chirps all is not well, despite the managed media pablum. You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time!

YGMGalearis...Paper Breakdown#13894612/8/05; 10:28:35

I'm 110% in that camp and have expected it to happen for years. I'm also of the mind that all those Funds etc with Gold loans on the books of CB's are nervous as hell and the Central Banks are probably moreso. I believe any Gold loan contract has a repayment trigger that kicks in if Gold reaches certain price points. Now whether the CB's will kite them, take cash or demand the Physical Gold back is the real question. The facts remain that literally thousands of T's of Gold have been sold on paper (which has yet to see the sunlight above ground) and 100's of T's has been borrowed from CB's over the last few years and sold into the physical market subsequent to short positions being established by the lessee's. The chickens are coming home to roost and it will be an ugly mess before the dust settles. We 'ARE' living in those interesting times the Asians speak of IMHO. Now we'll see CB's become net buyers instead of the other way around maybe!
mikalEnigmatic gold buyers elicit speculation#13894712/8/05; 10:29:40

Gold hits fresh record as private investors buy
Kevin Morrison - FT - December 8 2005 - Snippit:
"Mr Merrick said the gold price performance is a combination of three factors.
"Strong fundamentals, a rampant commodities sector with most base and all precious metals at multi-year or all-time highs, and massive investor interest led by the Japanese and our suspected ‘significant buyer’," Mr Merrick said.
He said there had been concerted buying when the gold price dipped and it looked as if it was coming from one particularly party, which could be a central bank.
Positive comments on gold by officials from the central banks of Argentina, Russia and South Africa have given bullion traders hope that some central banks may start buying again. However, central banks have been net sellers of gold for the past 40 years, except for the occasional official purchase.
Mr Merrick said momentum traders would not want to sell if this month's trajectory continues as gold would be at $568 by year-end and $649 by the end of February."

Flatliner@... delivery problems at COMEX#13894812/8/05; 10:53:50

Here is a graph that compares Oct to Dec. Still looking for more historical data.
DruidGalearis (12/8/05; 08:51:08MT - msg#: 138938)#13894912/8/05; 11:16:19

Druid: A chess game where all the pieces might move simultaneously. If you're not a paying member of Mr. Martin's Pay-to-Read site, you might consider it. I don't know how credible this person is but he is suggesting copper prices falling due to under the table deals.

The Gold Conundrum & the Chinese Copper Scam

(11-21-05) Gold is now approaching $490/ounce, equaling its 18-year high (almost to the day) in 1987.There is much talk in financial media of the great gold conundrum. That is, we are seeing an unusual confluence of economic events, which classically cannot be accounted for. Namely, the price of gold, the dollar and interest rates are all rising at the same time. What does this mean?

Clink!For the ultimate in gold portability ....#13895012/8/05; 11:23:44

don't carry it on you, but IN you ! Seriosly, there is currently an article at 321gold which tells of a lion which was injected with a gold compound to help arthritis. I never even knew that gold could form compounds, let alone be used medicinally. A quick Google produced half a million hits so do your own DD ! I know that there are some more senior posters here, so if rheumatoid arthritis is your bane, as it is with my near and dear, then just the thought of being injected might help some, psychosomatically-speaking. Does anyone have any direct experience of the treatment ?


OvSR. Powell#13895112/8/05; 11:33:48

Perhaps the shorts will save
your coffee position; they
are working day and night to
save their hide and coffee is
flowing freely. The Comex
lights are on day and night;
the starbuck truck pulls up
every few hours but soon
they'll be broke and do their
own dripping...
Why coffee? ... I know,I know.
There isn't enough action going
on with Silver and Gold..?!!OvS

Gandalf the Whitelook at this LINK #13895212/8/05; 11:36:24

FAB US$ Waterfalls today !!!

TownCrierRussia's gold and currency reserves up#13895312/8/05; 11:40:16

RBC, 08.12.2005, Moscow -- The Bank of Russia's gold and currency reserves reached $168.4 bn on December 2, up $1.2 bn compared to the previous week.

... As a result, the Russian Bank's gold and currency reserves are close to those of South Korea, which ranks fourth in the world in terms of the reserves volume.

^---(from url)---^

Please recall only two weeks ago that Alexei Ulyukayev, First Deputy Chairman of the Russian central bank, said the bank would be purchasing gold "on all markets on which it is available," (meaning both domestic and foreign markets), and also anticipated at the time that the level of gold and currency reserves would increase by $60 billion by year's end -- which would put the reserves somewhat north of $200 billion.

You'll also recall that these comments were made in conjunction with a larger, coordinated media blitz in which several Russian official (including Putin himself) indicated in a combined effort that the weight of gold reserves ought to be more than doubled as necessary to bring their proportion to 10 percent of the total forex reserves.

By my back of the envelope calculations, this would be around $20 billion in gold, whereas as of October's official statistics Russia had 387 tonnes of gold in reserves, amounting to only $3.73 billion as officially valued on the books at $300/oz.

Therefore, even WITH revaluation opportunities fully accounted for (can't say exactly when the M-T-M switch will happen), this still leaves Russia in search of approximately $15 billion in gold (900 tonnes) "on all markets on which it is available".

And this is to say nothing of other recent expressions of potential gold demand by the central banks of Argentina, South Africa, and assorted Asian nations.

This is but a small portion of the big picture, but even when taken by itself there really need be no doubt about WHY gold is moving to significantly higher levels.

Don't delay, by your gold as available today. Call USAGOLD-Centennial for price quotes and consultation.
Toll Free 1-800-869-5115


OvSClink.#13895412/8/05; 11:46:07

Back in the 70's and 80's I
knew a very high ranking
Indian Swami in NYC who al-
ways wore a golden bracelet
insisting it had preventative
powers against arthritis.
He also used a silver scraper
to clean his tongue. Now we
know of the anti-bacterial
properties of silver...There
are hundreds of these socalled
farfetched applications and
remedies; thank God I have no
need to check them out...yet..
Cheers, and up and away....OvS

OvSOh yes.#13895512/8/05; 11:50:05

And if and when the Asian flu
hits, I'll overdose on garlic
and walk around with my silver-
spoon, oops, I mean a silver-
dollar in my mouth; I'll get
them buggers...:-).........OvS

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A timely restatement of our "Open Forum" guidelines/policy#13895612/8/05; 11:53:03

A previous trial period of weekend "Open Forum" has generally shown us that widening the range of topics does not immediately degrade into a free-for-all and detract from the quality of relevant gold discussion as we originally feared it might. This cleared the way for a relaxation of our past standard -- that posts should always have a detectible relation or insight with respect to gold ownership.

Therefore, on July 5th we amended our "open forum" policy to widen the range of discussion throughout the weekdays as well.

Permissible discussion topics were broadened to include economics, the political economy and financial markets without necessarily having a gold component tied directly to the train of thought.

We felt that this makes for a more interesting and dynamic discussion group. At the same time, we want to continue to emphasize that this remains a gold forum, intended for individuals who either own gold, contemplate ownership or advocate gold as a key element in the domestic or international monetary system. We simply ask posters to keep that in mind when composing their posts.

The rules having to do with forum decorum remain in place as do the rules prohibiting the touting of specific stocks or promotion of any kind.

We remain thankful to all the posters who have made this a special place to gather on the internet. We hope you find these "open forum" guidelines amenable, and we look forward to your continued participation within these guidelines.

GoldiloxMore "Peak Government"#13895712/8/05; 13:34:58

Isn't it interesting that non-money-printing governments (especially State and local) are suffering similar fates of insovency as some corporations - due to pension obligations. San Diego is a MESS, and anot too long ago, Orange County lost their kiesters in the Bond Market.

It's not surprising the gubmint employees want nothing to do with public retirement schemes or busted unions, but their "retirement obligations" are busting the budget at most civic and state levels.

As we see more and more "obligations" deferred to "future revenues", the crap tables are returning to government funding. No wonder they want more and more to become the Casino House with their "lotteries", where the gubmint keeps 50% margin to control the game.

Nothing short of massive spending cuts can save us from hyperinflafla, but the unemployment resulting from reduction in the government trough will glut the already strained labor market with the "underutilized" (aka bonepile)!

Deflationists, your worries are no more than fuel for "Bernanke's Blades!

Can you hear them? whoopwhoopwhooopwhoopwhoopwhoop!

Black BladeMK, Rich, and All#13895812/8/05; 13:38:57

MK - Thank much, and yes of course permission granted. Always like to check in and keep abreast of things. Been a bit busy with the colder weather and natgas drill rigs turning steel.

Rich - I have read a couple of reports lately that silver is a bit in short supply. Just heard some bubble head say that digital cameras are making silver obsolete. Gimme a break! The new apps for silver in wood treatment and medical materials have already surpassed the losses in silver-nitrate uses.

- Black Blade

YGMFinancial Times Comment on CB Gold Buying#13895912/8/05; 13:53:08

By Kevin Morrison
Financial Times, London
Wednesday, December 7, 2005

Gold rose to a 24½-year high on Wednesday, touching $516.50 a troy ounce on Japanese private investor buying as well as benefiting from the flow of investment funds into commodities markets, which has pushed many metal prices to record peaks.

Paul Merrick, vice president commodities at RBC Capital, said the strength in the gold market has raised the possibility of central bank buying.

"There is concerted buying by a significant buyer, and it could be a central bank," said Mr Merrick. Central banks have been net sellers of gold for the last 40 years, although there have been occasional purchases. However, recent positive comments on gold by officials from Argentinian, Russian and South African central banks have given bullion traders hope that some banks may start buying again.

Mr Merrick said the 10 per cent rise in the gold price in the past three weeks has not been accompanied by a significant lift in buying of Comex gold futures in New York. Turnover in gold futures on the Tocom exchange in Tokyo was 7.5m ounces, exceeding Comex in New York by nearly 3m ounces. Normally, Tocom volumes are only one third of those traded on Comex.

"This suggests that there could be another large buyer out there, as there is a concerted effort to buy on any dips in the prices," Mr Merrick said.

Gold also reached a record high of €440.53 a troy ounce in single currency terms, and neared £300 sterling for the first time in almost 20 years.

Silver reached another 18-year high when it hit $8.86 a troy ounce.

Base metals also had a record breaking day. The three-month copper price hit a record high of $4,452 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange after Chilean rail workers that serve the country's top copper mines went on strike on Wednesday, prompting concerns that output of the metal could be affected.

SurvivorGold Compounds#13896012/8/05; 13:57:15

@ Clink! - ". . . never even knew that gold could form compounds. . ."

Reaching back to some ancient memories of basic chemistry - I seem to remember that alloys are compounds. That means white gold, and the xx-carat jewelry golds are all compounds of gold.

Anyone know of gold compounds that include elements that aren't other metals? I'm pretty sure there aren't any gold-oxides or gold-carbon compounds.

- Survivor

PS - Watching the charts is lots of fun right now. . . but where did I put my dramamine?? Whew!

- S

GoldiloxGold Chemistry#13896112/8/05; 14:13:34

I don't think alloys are "compounds" in the chemical nomenclature, but rather mixtures. Compounds require shared electron shells.

Gold is not completely inert, although not very reactive, either. It takes some really strong reagents to get its attention.

Here's enough reference material to gag a golden calf!

JoepmbullGold compounds#13896212/8/05; 14:14:10

Alloys are not compounds, they are mixtures.
There are many compounds of gold, for example, auric chloride
There are also many compounds of gold containing carbon. One type is called "gold alkyls" and they have the formula R2AuX where R is an alkyl group made up of carbon and X is a anion like chloride

YGMSantas Gold (Picture) WOW!!!#13896312/8/05; 14:18:00

This for the good girls and boys who wrote Santa. Coal for the rest of you.
GoldiloxGlobe says Newmont, rivals see yellow turning green#13896412/8/05; 14:22:06


The Globe and Mail reports in its Thursday, Dec. 8, edition that employees at precious-metals dealer X were scrambling Wednesday. The Globe's Wendy Stueck writes that X workers were fielding hundreds of calls on one of the busiest days in the firm's history. Customers clamoured to buy everything from bars of gold to certificates for precious metal stored at an Australian mint. J, X's investment products manager, said Wednesday's near 25-year high for gold -- after its recent breakthrough to the psychologically important $500 (U.S.) an ounce mark -- shows the public is waking up to gold's allure.

Gold is back. Firms such as X are on the front lines of a global trend that some say could see gold emerge as a "fourth global currency" that could challenge the dominance of the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen and the euro on the world financial stage. Analysts say a supply-demand crunch is driving gold prices. Analysts say a ballooning United States government deficit is lessening confidence in the American dollar. Mined-gold production has fallen by an average 2 per cent a year between 2001 and 2004, Newmont Mining said Wednesday.


Sounds more like the smart ones were turning green to gold! Names were changed to honor the sponsor!

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#13896512/8/05; 14:24:24">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

THURSDAY Market Excerpts

Gold reaches for quarter-century mark

December 8 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed near $524 an ounce Thursday to trade at their highest level since 1981, chalking up a sixth consecutive session of gains on the heels of strong physical demand and concerns about inflation.

Gold for February delivery traded as high as $523.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract settled at $522.70, up $4.90.

"Momentum is definitely accelerating as February gold has now tacked on $60 in just a little over a month's time," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities.

"All the markets need now is some extraordinary event to occur, like a stock market meltdown or a terrorist attack on U.S. soil, and we could see a quick $50-$100 pop(up) in the price of gold," he said.

"The fact is, the technicals, fundamentals, and market sentiment are all aligned right now and that is what provides real 'legs' to markets."

"From a long-term perspective, I don't think it's too late to enter the game for those who are still on the sidelines," said Doelling.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---

GoldiloxSanta's Gold#13896612/8/05; 14:29:53


64 bars/pallet X 6 tall X 9 deep X 3 rows, minus a few racks not completely full.


I count nearly 10,000 bars in that picture!

Go Santa, you get them bad boys delivered!

Cookies and milk are waiting!

FlatlinerBanking has it's purpose (From the Hall of Fame)#13896712/8/05; 14:31:57

Here is a very small snippet from over 10k words from Aristotle in feb of 2000.

Start snippet:
*** What then is the role for Gold? Gold qualifies as MORE TRUE than money. Among the many national currencies, only Gold in physical form fills the three standard monetary criteria (store of value; medium of exchange; and unit of account) without *WITHOUT* the associated risk of default. Gold, therefore, remains the ultimate, sovereign king of them all and subject to none... as long as it isn't attached in any official capacity to the fate or fortune of any one of them. Therefore, the monetary system architecture must be such that Governments find no temptation -- that they are unable to derive any benefit to their own situation through any efforts to "keep a lid" on Gold.
[… after thousands of words…]
Although I've seemingly cut Gold out of the monetary system, that is not the case at all. Gold qualifies as the only true money; being able to function as a unit of account, as a medium of exchange, and as a store of value. A fiat currency only meets the first two elements, but they fail as a store of value. Therefore, Gold will be be the money of savings, while national currencies will be the currency of commerce. They will all float relative to each other, and constantly seek out their proper value. Kept with special status as an independent and unlendable currency, Gold will be the ever-rising North Star of the monetary system. Central banks would be inclined to hold only Gold in reserves of any significant size--because Gold is not the liability of any other nation, and its real-world value would continue to grow over time. As said before, quantities held in other national currencies would be done only to the extent that they facilitate trade between active partners. Individuals across the Earth would also choose to hold Gold as their savings; their life's productivity forever protected from inflation and deflation, and from reliance upon another person's (or nation's) liability.
:End snippet.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems to me that Aristotle argues 1) for the existence of a banking system, 2) that savings should be held in gold, and 3) when governments manipulate the price of gold in order to set it in their favor, prices rise to the point where the fiat money becomes worthless.

Have I simplified too much?

If this is the case, any future banking system will have to differentiate between savings and other banking services. I would take this to mean what's saved is not lent out.

My advice to anyone new to this forum is to read the postings behind the Gold Trail, Thoughts and Hall of Fame links. These articles will give the fearful inflationist hope.

GoldiloxHanukkah Gelt#13896812/8/05; 14:52:04

When my Marketing VP bought gold-wrapped chocolate coins for our trade show spif, he told me the story behind Hanukkah Gelt, while I personally worked on reducing his supply glut. I forwarded that picture to him just now!

The STRTRKs picture reminds me of the old vitamin jingle:

"2 billion strong . . . and grow-ow-ing"

R PowellGalearis....#13896912/8/05; 15:35:04

Thanks for the info + opinions.

As to exactly why the silver price is moving up, we both agree that it is being driven by physical demand. However, I'm always cautious since physical demand price moves may look oh so much like speculative price moves. Many big speculative funds and smaller speculative monies simply invest with the current trend, which now is up, praise be. So, even with physical demand the market will also move with speculative investments, often from fund managers who know absolutely nothing of fundamentals. I've often mentioned that these technical traders freely admit that they are ignorant of fundamentals and some opine that any such infomation is dangerous to them as it might bias their chart readings!

This similarity between speculative moves and demand driven market moves is one reason why copper has interested me recently. I'm looking for indications that might differentiate between speculative and real demand driven markets although demand (shown as price movement up) will always atract speculation. Existing copper supply numbers are available and have been severely drawn down. So I guess Ted Butler, you and I all agree there. Also, copper production numbers have not increased anywhere near enough to cover the increased demand. End result = price rationing!
Interesting also is that COT reports have NOT shown any lopsided positions in copper in any category, at least not while the price was rising from 135 or so to about 200. No speculative mania??

A quick observation on our market theories concerning manipulation or no: If market selling is limited by existing supply (no naked shorts), then it follows that there can be no selling after a certain (small in silver!) amount has been sold. No selling means no buying as the contracts short always equal the contracts long...and vice-versa, of course. How does a market react when there can be no buying and no naked selling after that small limit is reached? It means liquidation only...only offset selling and no buying without offset selling. Without buying there is absolutely no upward price pressure..and with only offset selling allowed, there IS downward price pressure. No free market...perhaps no market at all? The CFTC is not interested in such but simply oversees normal trading...hopefully having to do nothing to interfer with free capitalism. I guess I advocate keeping government out of free enterprise.

AS to the volume of silver contracts (amounts of metal) trading, I thank you for watching. Open interest varies, usually falling with price as speculative money bails out. The specs are more often long than short! Hedgers are more often short than long, as they are hedging the price they pay for physical bought. Any decrease in open interest can be caused by a variety of reasons. Again, I'll mention Kaplan as someone who opined that the last big run-up was speculative. How did he know? Lucky guess from a silver bear or market insight? He never explained the whyfor of his opinion.

I hope I'm among that small group you mentioned who have opined about Comex physical offtake. Years ago I speculated that the small available Comex stores (about 50 million in the registered category?), might be called "the silver of last resort". Most physical silver use does not pass through Comex but perhaps those who need it have now come knocking at the door. If so, and they want physical as your study indicates, then we're about to see some real fireworks. I'm ready!!!(outrageous, somewhat evil grin here).

Your words here, worthy of repeating..

"For the first time in twenty years, this
market is beginning to respond like a physical market. Gold and silver
are both in deficits of supply, so you know what that will do to the price.
Even the paper price. Now that there is a raid on COMEX stockpiles, it
remains to be seen if we will get a default. From here, it looks like the
silver market is at risk of default."

Well said but I still opine that, although possible, the Comex will not default. Remember the Comex is just the exchange. If there are defaults, it would be the naked sellers, not the exchange. But I believe that much higher prices will rebalance the buying and selling pressure, without any defaults. But hey, if the "silver of last resort" is desparately needed, so that even say $20/ounce silver could not intice the longs to sell, then ?? Also, short covering will now be on our side. So much to watch, so much fun. Maybe this is when the market awakens!

PanThailand is said to have importetd 1617 Tonnes of Gold in Oktober 2005!#13897012/8/05; 15:44:25

"The Nation" - Thailand

Tighter gold import controls planned

Published on December 09, 2005

"The ministry will meet with gold traders to establish an acceptable import volume for the rest of the year."

"The ministry reported that the value of gold imports had shot up to 1,617 tonnes in October from just 6.5 tonnes in September."

"A ministry source said imports had jumped this year due to speculation. Consequently, it has to establish measures to control the situation as soon as possible."


If this "The Nation" press article is genuine, then we will have soon a lot more fun, as we now can think about.

1617 tonnes of Gold imports in one month time! Where are they comming from?

Can it be true?

mikalDistortions, imbalances lead to corrections, gold #13897112/8/05; 15:59:12

Pithy observation on accounting fraud hints at the consequences of now widespread abuse and fraud. In fragile and interdependent economies, local and transnational business and financial decisions alike depend on basic assumptions and decorum.
Lack of oversight and accountability leading to fraud distort official and corporate outputs in as many ways as you can structure an exotic derivative or phrase pablum on the podium. The resulting imbalances and myriad consequences are why so many return to standards such as gold.
Not Just Accounting - Ronald Fink - 12/07/05 - Snippit:
"The New Yorker this week weighs in on Sarbox (though in its grammatically hair-splitting fashion chooses to spell it "SarbOx") and reminds those who think the cost of compliance outweighs the benefits of an interesting point: Competitors of a fraudulent company may suffer from inflated results no less than its shareholders and other stakeholders.
In fact, the article cites new research that finds WorldCom's fraud was at least partly responsible for overinvestment in capacity by other telecom companies. That still dogs the industry and the economy four years after WorldCom failed because it chose to violate U.S. GAAP and capitalize expenses."

Galearis@all re gold and silver deliveries Rich, Flatliner, YGM, contrarian#13897212/8/05; 16:00:44

Just got back from Christmas tree chopping and found that Santa came early to the gold (and silver) market!
Nice run up for a (gold) market that is supposedly over-bought right now! The T.A. crowd must be mystified,,,,but REALLY, this panic has been growing since last December when we first started watching that data page that listed deliveries on the COMEX. Even then the deliveries jumped doubling and tripling…That is when Rhody and I started to watch closely. It was only initially 8 or nine million ounces involved,,,,and the registered stocks were at first, at the 50 M.oz level, then topped off by new supplies….But the new supplies just kept up with deliveries. It was obvious that the management was bringing metal in to satisfy new delivery pressure and to keep the stockpile seemingly health. Actually these new supplies brought in meant that there was not silver available at the time – at THAT PRICE, at a low enough price to satisfy this new delivery demand. We saw the registered stocks go up,,,,but so did the deliveries over the same one year period. To date,,,and I repeat,,,,virtually all the metal in the registered stockpile has changed ownership since September. There were even silver deliveries in non-delivery month November totalling over two million ounces. It has now virtually all changed hands with 1476 O.I. remaining for the December delivery month. That represents 7,380,000 ounces pending,,,,and lots of room for default. The phones will be ringing furiously at those who are still standing for delivery. It stands to reason that some of this crowd will be after real metal, not cash, or are not prepared to roll into a future month. I suspect that some of these folks might have noticed a lot of deliveries going on too,,,and, well, that's sorta why they call it a run, isn't it ,...?

Maybe Ted Butler is right and it is about copper. It may be that a lot of these players are actually worried about corporate COMEX running into a real default mess over the next few months. This could be over a short metal commodity problem, an anxiety that is spilling over into gold and silver. Sure. But Ted Butler does not recognize any monetary demand for gold or silver. It is definitely not his worldview. He is a "by definition (they aren't by law) kind of a fellow", a commodities market guy, and would not appreciate that perhaps the monetary problems out there are forcing people to hedge back to a by-gone era….Just like we of this forum believe.

During this period Ted Butler mentioned a possible default risk and questioned from time to time the obvious trouble the management was having scrounging up the silver to fulfil obligations. That was the first tickle of wind before the storm in our opinion and we have been watching this build ever since. That is why I said earlier that December would really be interesting!

Flatliner: Historical data has been a problem. We have been watching deliveries for a year and an argument could be made that this is a tempest in a tea pot,,,and that this delivery stuff goes on from time to time. There really isn't the data because the entities really taking deliveries are not necessarily first parties.,,, But we do know the averages and these are a clean-out-the-cupboard extensive. And we find the context of other events outside of the COMEX,,,,rather telling.

Plus nobody watches this delivery stuff.

I'll check out Casey's graph. Thanks!

The mindset is that only physical withdrawals count. But first the stocks have to turn over in ownership, yes? We have what I would call ignition,,,,the first stage of the run has been exercised. What the new owners,,,,be they specs or commercials,,,, do with the stuff will be the test. If the specs are heavily involved, then management will likely move to impede their removing metal from the vaults. If the commercials are involved,,,,they would want to leave the metal there,,,,in their safer hands,,,,to either sell off in deliveries at a low price,,, (implies naked shorting is dead) or address their physical shorts – lease obligations perhaps…Either way the management will likely not like to see this metal move out of the vaults lest it precipitate a melt up in price that is infinitely worse than what we have at hand. We will have to wait and see what happens to this remaining stockpile of silver. Gee maybe Barclays is going to get its ETF and these folks know it…and are positioned in advance. It's we wait and see time. This thing will take months to unfold IMO.

Contrarian: If you read FOA you will find his views on what will transpire in the equities side of financialand to be quite interesting through this period. He predicted the great sideways motion of the DOW etc as the PPT moved in to provide a liquidity base for what should have been much more volatility and downward movement of the equity markets. Now we see the DOW go up, and to me that just indicates manipulation and inflation. The USD is poised to (in all probability) descend once more once the Homeland Financial Act runs out at the end of the month….The flurry of deliveries of silver (and gold too) may be in anticipation of a rather precipitous decline in the dollar. We may see the DOW etc continue to rise all through the fall of the dollar,,,,and, of course inflation will continue at a higher rate,,,,BUT the equities will pay off in shrinking currency. This is what ANOTHER referred to when he said some of the miner share enthusiasts would be in a long line trying to sell their shares. The "profits? will not keep up with this erosion. The extreme of this might even be reached as the DOW meets parity with the DOW at 30,000. Gold at $30,000 and the DOW at 30,000. Which would you like to be in at the time?

The point of collapse was perhaps a bit of an overstatement,,,and I should have said that we live at a very interesting point of time historically for these markets.

YGM: $510 gold was key. Buy stops kicked in and off gold went. Gold had to go 2% over $500 to trigger them. Safe buys at that. I rather think they were right – in a kind of self-fulfilling way.

Rich: I just got back on to find your post response to the discussion. Good words! And I do understand the default definition; my pardon for typing thoughts too quickly for accurate statements.

But the CFTC IS not unbiased in the silver and gold markets. They actually deplore a rise in prices and have been caught out with stating this attitude. I have no doubt that the CFTC is in bed with the COMEX management. In fact they go back and forth from one to the other in management positions. One such was heard to give the unbiased view to a question (a timely one for this particular discussion):

"What would happen if people started to take delivery?" Oh, you wouldn't want that to happen!" "The price would rise!" he said.
We have David Morgan to thank for that little piece. No, they are all playing in the same sand box when it comes to rigging. Oh, yes!

Hope I covered everything. Things are starting in earnest now and the world will never be the same! Last chance for cheap gold and silver! Gotta run!

Best regards,


contrarianGalearis--Dow 30,000?#13897312/8/05; 16:51:02

I've heard this contention about a highly inflated stock market before, and after some thought, I would say highly likely due to demographic changes happening soon, and coming of retirement age (and therefore stock selling) of baby boom bulge in the population.

Part of the reason of the run up in stocks between 82 and 2000, of course, was the entry into investing age of the baby boomers, and their wholesale embrace of stocks. This is explained as one of the reasons in Robert Schiller's "Irrational Exuberance."

Also, any major run up, or new era in the stock market requires some sort of revolutionary technology to drive things forward with momentum, such as railroads in the mid 1800's, electricity around the turn of the nineteenth century, cars and mass production in the twenties, and internet in the 90s. Lacking that, there's not much to move things up in a big way.

So I would say again there's nothing new under the sun in the stock market, and the long term secular bear market is still in force.

Flatliner@Dow 30,000? And revolutionary technology (printing press)#13897412/8/05; 17:33:51

I'm still having a hard time *not* seeing dow > 30,000+, gold > 30,000+ and houses > 100's of % higher then today's prices. Why? Because of the bankers. I mean, if I were a bank, I would rather inflate the money supply to keep my customers servicing their loans then to not inflate (the money supply) and see them default. It gets messy when the customers default. Nope, if times got tuff, I'd give away money, to make myself look like the hero (to my customers) and keep them paying the bills. All the while, I would buy gold with my profits.

At the same time, if you take the value of the dollar and compare it against the value of the entire stock market (not the price of each) you will see that they trade at a particular price today. Now, if the value of the dollar falls, say, 50%, it will take twice as many dollars to buy the same combined value of the stock market. Thus, dollar falls 50% and the stock market price doubles.

Ok hit me! But before you do, have a little mercy. I'm frail and innocent and, for what it's worth, don't really like bankers.

contrarianAy, Hyperinflation#13897512/8/05; 17:46:21

Well if hyperinflation enters the picture such as Germany between the wars, well, I would say all bets are off.

But then, wouldn't most companies split their stocks before they reach such exorbitant heights so as to cause a Dow 30,000? I mean are we talking about Dow component stocks literally being three times the price per stock they are now?

Wouldn't the banksters and government try to maintain a veneer of normalcy, as they are doing now with manipulation of statistics, CPI, employment figures, GDP, etc. And wouldn't stocks at three times current price be too much of a red flag (which would lead them to split the shares), i.e., Google at $1200 per share.

It would be interesting to find out what happened to the German stock market prices during that time period of hyperinflation. Did they go up to crazy amounts such as a billion marks, etc? I remember reading a nugget quoting a German man from that era as saying he just had cashed in his retirement fund, and with the proceeds, he bought a loaf of bread. True story!

TownCrierFlatliner, on flatlining stocks#13897612/8/05; 17:58:07

At first blush your rationale seems plausible... a person might be inclined to think that a weaker dollar would result in higher prices for everything, stocks included.

However, that may or equally may not be the case for any given stock.

When you buy stocks, the price you pay is reflective of more than just a simple share of the company's tangible brick and mortar. As is often the case, the aggregate share value is considerably higher than can be accounted for by the company's tangibles -- a goodly amount of the price is reflective of the company's specific business model and the profitabilty projections for the future. In other words, depending on the company, a large fraction of the share price reflects the judgement of value that investors put on the company's operating plan and everything that factors into its net cashflow and future expectations.

Recall that companies not only sell a final product or service, but that they also have cost of imputs to contend with. If the dollar devalues, and a company is heavily dependent upon imported raw materials or energy, investor expectations of profitablity may be seriously discounted in the share price, despite the fact that the brick and mortar portion may merit a higher pricetag.

There's more, but that's all I have time to say. Hope it helps you think further along a more balanced overall view.


contrarianflatlining stocks#13897712/8/05; 18:08:13

Yes, that is a corrolary argument. That markets really are NOT efficient as they are claimed to be, and are rather psychological markers as to the imputed value of an entity. They are built on expectations of earnings, not the actual earnings themselves. The old buy the rumor, sell the news adage still works to this day.

So a simple arithmetic interpolation of dollar inflation to the stock market may not hold water. Dow 10,000 worked because the psychology of belief held up during that time period--there was a wholesale belief that we were in a "new" era.

But if economic conditions deteriorate catastrophically and inflation takes hold in an awful way, how can that make people feel optimistic about the future earnings of stocks so as to boost their values? I think it would actually have the opposite effect and collapse the stock market.

Interesting discussion nevertheless.

Druid@Rich#13897812/8/05; 18:17:39

"Well said but I still opine that, although possible, the Comex will not default. Remember the Comex is just the exchange. If there are defaults, it would be the naked sellers, not the exchange. But I believe that much higher prices will rebalance the buying and selling pressure, without any defaults. But hey, if the "silver of last resort" is desparately needed, so that even say $20/ounce silver could not intice the longs to sell, then ?? Also, short covering will now be on our side. So much to watch, so much fun. Maybe this is when the market awakens!

Druid: Do you not think that the exchange will, once again as happened with the Hunts, change the rules to protect the naked shorts?

Flatliner@hit me. ;)#13897912/8/05; 18:20:45

TownCrier, I do appreciate your balanced approach to valuing stocks. Having actively participated in the markets through the 90's, I seriously question whether others actually investigate to determine the value of a company (or any stock). I have come to the belief that people just jump into a rising commodity without thinking. Heck, if the price is going up and keeps going up, why not get in on the action? If people were like you, they would have applied reason left the market long ago. We would not have high P/E ratios and, savings would be as good as gold.

Thanks for the ‘plausible’ comment. I feel like I'm starting to get the hang of interpreting your words. I take ‘plausible’ to mean ‘it will not happen like this, thank you for playing."

GoldiloxInflafla#13898012/8/05; 19:10:00

If the dollar loses, say, 50% of its purchasing power, and the SM rises, say, 75%, then the owner of those stocks has essentially lost 12.5% of his equity.

We can expect the pundits to remind us more often of the 75% gain than the actual 12.5% loss, as it is their job to continue selling stocks.

One of the difficult things about moving-target inflation is figuring our if any asset's value gain actually exceeds the ongoing inflation. Especially so when the published inflation numbers are so skewed by "hedonics" that they hardly make any sense anyway.

I don't know if was purposeful, but the inventors of the term "stagflation" wanted to describe an environment of inflation mixed with deflation. Others have called it general inflation coupled with asset deflation, or whatever. We will certainly see both orchestrations and reactions that fit this scenario.

One thing that appears likely to me. The 1978-1980 inflationary run will not be exactly repreated, as the manipulators, good and bad, have waited their whole career to attack that scenario. More likely, the band-aids they apply will create some new side-effects that no one expects, and we'll hear even more "this time it's different" explanations.

In less manipulative markets, gold would be one of the best inflation markers. As most of us believe, the manipulation of POG makes even that a difficult task. We watch it try to decouple from the "bugger thy neighbor's currency" shenanigans, only to see the manipulators reassert moments of control.

Exciting times, indeed.

Black BladeGold Breaks Above $525#13898112/8/05; 19:20:16

As soon as I heard Larry Kudlow and his anti-gold Carnival Barkers on CNBC say that the POG has topped out, I just had to wait and see how much higher the POG would go in after hours. As expected, Gold is up by another $4. The tremble in his voice and the need for 2 anti-gold prostitutes to help him argue against the lone Goldbug on his show was a definite sign of desperation. I expect to see the full court press against precious metals and energy the rest of this week in the financial media. If that does not work then next week should be rather amusing as they will pull out all the stops and every available anti-gold pimp and prostitute will be beating the drums. ;)

- Black Blade

DruidKuhl#13898212/8/05; 19:24:50

Druid: Check out the prices at the link. Gold @ $526, Silver over $9.
Black BladeWaiting On "Spot"#13898312/8/05; 19:27:01

OK, to avoid confusion, I am referring to the Feb. contract. "Spot" is still watching the bar before he jumps. Somebody please toss "Spot" a Milk Bone. ;)

- Black Blade

omegamanBlackBlade and reference "Pimp and Prostitute"#13898412/8/05; 20:05:33

Hi BlackBlade,

I like your comments about CNBC carnival barkers and Lawrence Kudlow. But please, could you stop insulting pimps and prostitutes as they at least provide SOME KIND of service. I mean, really.

Real-istically speaking, Omegaman

SundeckDow and CPI...Gold Injections#13898512/8/05; 20:20:36

@ Rich Powell #138932 Dow and CPI

I remember reading a study a few years ago (and posting comments here) from which it was apparent to me that, once CPI was taken into account, the Dow index was pretty near flat over several decades...sometimes ahead of the CPI and sometimes trailing the CPI. The composite index (including dividends) was up. That is, "real" profits were restricted to takings in dividends alone.

However, as has been pointed out often enough, the CPI is only one indication of inflation. the term "inflation" is used willy-nilly by all and sundry as if it actually means something specific, concrete and of unique form. It does not. "Inflation" is rather like "weather"...sunny and calm over here, but category-5 typhoon over there. It is meaningful insofar as we all know it exists, but in reality its focus and its importance varies substantially from person to person.

For example, suppose one is into computers and nothing else...then the price of a "standard" computer has been plummeting for decades and will continue to plummet...whoopeee, sunny days forever...negative inflation and the purchasing power and "value" of one's dollars appears to be forever increasing.

However, suppose one is less-techno-gratified and just wants to live in a normal house. Different story!! Standard house prices have increased probably more than 50 times since 1970. Therefore, THIS humble person's dollar has been going down like a lead baloon.

Take the has increased about 14 times since 1970 (similar to gold), probably about the same as the CPI, but way less than housing.

@Clink! #138950 Gold and RA

Gold injections have been used to treat RA for at least 25 years. I had a good friend who suffered from RA who used to have regular gold injections. Did it do any good? Impossible to be sure, but hopefully the treatment has been tested using controls with some measure of success.


Galearis@ Flatliner, all re delivery problems#13898612/8/05; 20:30:17

A pretty good article on delivery by Bud Conrad, and he covered most of the points of interest. However, I do not know how he could say that the spec longs were mainly taking delivery. I would put my money on most of this being the commercials taking ownership.

It's been a strange day all round. I did not even check the deliveries today and my brother sends me the following info:
Meanwhile over on COMEX, 296 silver contracts were delivered (1.5 Moz) today to bring the total delivered this month to 33 Moz. Gold had 284 contracts stand for delivery (28,400 oz) to bring December's total to 1,781,200 oz. COMEX has about 3 Moz in the registered category in its stockpile. It might be interesting to see if the gold Open Interest for December is still rising. That means that over half of all the registered metal for both gold and silver stockpiles have been called for delivery. That seems like a lot to me.
And I should correct Rich while I'm on about my brother, but it was a piece of the Rhody insert that he quoted, not moi.

Note however, that Rhody only speaks to the current delivery month. But the same buyers were involved this month as for the past 4. And we still do not know who these entities were buying for,,,,if not for themselves.

But I think we should all be on the lookout for defaulters.

Best regards,


Black Blade@Omegaman#13898712/8/05; 20:38:38

I see your point. I certainly would not want to sully the reputations of pimps and prostitutes. Not fair to suggest guilt by association ya know. That said, one of my favorite movies is "Doctor Detroit". ;)

- Black Blade

SundeckCarnival Barkers#13898812/8/05; 20:49:42

I seldom listen to or watch the financial/investment extravaganzas that pervade radio and TV media...the reason is that I believe they are nearly always very shallow in substance; with the emphasis on "feel-good glitz".

Partly for this reason, and partly because I live in Australia, I was unfamiliar with Mr Kudlow's style and knowledge being resticted to the occasional comments by participants in this forum.

However, I recently spent a week in Los Angeles and while travelling in a taxi one day I had the pleasure of listening to a somewhat strident investment commentary on the radio station which the cab-driver was tuned into. The commentator was pushing a particular stock; rather hard I thought, and for reasons that struck me as rather simplistic. Since I know a little bit about trading stocks, I was interested in who the self-proclaimed wizzard on the radio was. The cab-driver informed me it was: "Mr Kudlow...he's quite famous!"

I now have a better basis for understanding Black Blade's term "carnival barker", and the sentiment with which Mr Kudlow seems to be regarded hereabouts...


David LinkleyThe light shines through#13898912/8/05; 21:08:32

Unbacked fiat is no match for gold as the Comex paper pushers are being smoked. At some point expect an attempt at a counterpunch but how much will it matter? Our Congress merrily assures a higher deficit going forward with goodies for everyone. Lets see our great leadership in action: No efforts to move away from fossil fuels
No effort to bring the budget under control
No effort to address the trade deficit
No efforts to address illegal immigration
No efforts to address the pension crises
I could go on and on but you get the point, buy gold now while you can still pay dollars for it. We may reach a point where it's not available at any price.

mdgcCanadian gold stocks#13899012/8/05; 21:40:54

The lagging S&P Toronto gold index is finally confirming the break out in XAU and HUI indices and gold zipping through $500. The strong Canadian dollar slowed the rise of the index. Recently XAU and HUI broke though double tops in December 2003 and December 2004.

Canadian gold stocks have had an earlier top in mid 2002. The Canadian dollar dropped to the 60's at that time, compared with 86 cents today.

Compare these three five year charts of the TSX Gold, XAU and HUI

RookEpsilon effect#13899112/8/05; 22:26:54

The weather folks are doing quite a spin job on the hurricane that is?was in the mid atlantic last week. They said it was "tenatious" and "guess we have more to learn about hurricanes" because they were claiming it was over cold water.
Well, hurricanes cannot be tenatious, and truth be told, the water is not cold where the hurricane is. It SHOULD be cold, but it aint. Fresh water melt off the north is causing the gulfstream to not only slow, but causing some percentage of it to stop its normal sinking, thereby slowing the gulfstream, blocking off some percentage of its normal downward courses, and causing the warm water to bunch up in the mid atlantic.
That alone is plenty enough reason to buy gold.

White Hillscontrarian#13899212/8/05; 22:44:07

Hyperinflation? The PTB will not permit that. One Historic Monday morning---. White Hills
GoldiloxLarry the Lounge-lizard#13899312/8/05; 23:21:06

They had to take Larry off the morning show, because Mark kept rolling his eyes whenever Larry opened his mouth, and could NOT restrain himself when Larry swallowed his own foot.

Not sure why they dumped "Kudlow and Cramer", but I'm sure it had something to do with mixing "water and oil".

Now they both have a show, Cramer as "Carnival Barker Extrordinaire", in the Dick Vitale style, "Totally, Baby". Pass the crack pipe, man, and don't Bogart! He even controls his own foley rack! zonk, pow, whoopawhoopa!

Larry is more the "Mr. Roger's" style. "Now children, let's all say HI to Mr Treasury, and thank him for all that money he prints."

All this followed by "the Donald" and Donnie Deutch.

I've seen better lineups on Dragnet reruns!

TownCrierGold is sparkling as never before #13899412/8/05; 23:21:50,16781,1663233,00.html

December 9, 2005; The Guardian -- ...So rapid has gold's rise been that at the Bank of England Museum in Bartholomew Lane, near the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street, staff had yet to update the wooden counter recording the value of their prize exhibit: a 13kg (28lb) London Good Delivery bar, containing 99.5% pure gold, the worldwide benchmark for quality.

It's not only bullion traders who are excited by gold's performance. From Marc Jacobs' gold-chain bag - the "must-have" fashion item this Christmas - to Selfridges' gold wallpaper-themed store windows courtesy of Cole & Son and soul singer Joss Stone modelling jewellery from the Italian designer Dino Modolo's new range at September's Fashion Rock's awards, gold is pretty much everywhere. is music to the ears of the attendant at the Bank of England museum. Leading a tour group to the 13kg ingot on Wednesday morning, she announced: "This bar cost us £100,000 when we brought it 17 years ago. I think at one point the value sank to £68,000, but that was some time ago now."

She points out a display recording the ingot's value as £117,324. By yesterday, however, once the counter had been adjusted for the most recent London fix, it read £118,263 - a healthy overnight profit for the museum.

Some gold facts to amaze your friends...

-- If you gathered together all the gold ever mined it would weight approximately 153,000 tonnes. The same volume, in steel, can be turned out by the US in a single day.

-- Because gold is so dense, those 153,000 tonnes could be contained in a cube with 20-metre (65ft) sides. The Italian artist Giancarlo Neri is planning to create a full-size model of such a cube, entitled All is Gold, with a view to installing it somewhere in the City. Right is the maquette he created.

-- Gold is extremely malleable. You could draw an ounce of gold into a wire 50 metres in length, while a tonne of gold could be stretched to the moon and back.

^---(from url)---^

Or, for those keeping score, all of the gold ever mined could be stretched to the moon and back 153,000 times. That's a lot of utility from a mere 20m cube.

It truly boggles the mind.


GoldiloxHyperinflafla#13899512/8/05; 23:24:29

@ White Hills,

No - Bennie the Blade wants "controlled" hyperinflation.


GoldiloxSarbanes-Oxley#13899612/8/05; 23:35:41

@ mikal,

My team is hosting a Sarbanes-Oxley seminar in February. Since the World Series, most are calling it SOX now, replacing SarbOx.

I told the moderator he should open the conference with a slide that says,

2006 the year of SOX, not

[next slide] Red Sox, or
[next slide] White Sox

He wouldn't even let me get to the Black Sox analogy, as it was too far below the belt.

Lawyers spoil all the fun.

GoldiloxEpsilon Effect#13899712/8/05; 23:59:09

@ Rook,

McCanney had plenty to say about Epsilon on his weekly broadcast tonight.

Of course, in his Principia Meteorologia, he asks:

"If hurricanes form in 'warm water', how is it that said water loses no heat energy and often immediately spawns another hurricane in the same region, and yet the first hurricane packed enough energy to power NY for a year".

and "How do hurricanes stronger than ours form on Mars, with virually no liquid water and less than 10% of our atmosphere."

Yes, we have much to learn about storm formation! From whence came that energy?

But I am not surprised.

As a physical science major in University, I always wondered that Nurses took "bonehead" Chemistry and Meteorologists took "bonehead" Physics, as we called them.

Unfortunately, whether or not we truly understand the mechamism, changes are coming about, and they will most likely affect agriculture, energy, and shipping in big ways.

I have also been tracking EQ activity, which seems to be increasing in a lot of mining regions, another hit to supply concerns.

UsulInteresting Thoughts#13899812/9/05; 01:40:56

Sun Nov 23 1997 10:51:

"When the change in direction of gold starts, it will be hyper fast! A good many will run to the US$ first, making that currency rise with gold and misleading much people...
Many gold stocks will rise with gold and most people will hold for gains. But they will never see then converted to value. If the gold markets lock before they reach $1,000 , all mining stocks will be consumed in the paper fire. A sad day for many."

Sun Nov 02 1997 21:52:
"Do you think in these terms: "if gold goes up $100+ next week I'll sell my futures, gold stocks and 10 K-rands for a fat profit and laugh all the way to the bank" If the gold market was the same as in the 70s and 80s, that might be a good move. But this market is not the same."

Sun Oct 19 1997 23:08:
"Watch oil! If it rises much and gold isn't sold off then the game is over."

Sun Apr 19 1998 00:08:
"The gold market may lock at $400? Or $4,000! When the public perception does come to understand, many entities I know of will not be buying "at the market" as your broker will. These ones, they will be "above the market", "well above the market"! Will you bid $1,000 when your broker screen shows $475? I myself, as a country will be "there"! You sir, will stand well behind most in line."

"The last gold war of 1980 ended as the choice was between "gold as a currency" and the US dollar. The dollar was accepted as the world reserve and trading currency. Many did not believe this reserve would hold in the test of time.
It was "expected" that from twenty years in the past, any inflation of dollar debt would send all persons in a run to gold. This be the "flaw" in thinking of many analysis and investors. For it was in this time that all the governments of the world began to "play a currency game". Yes, a contest for many, even most, but not all! This game was offered to the rich, the working and the poor. It was even for the wealthy to play as they watch to see who will remain the longest. But history has shown that as the sun sets in the east, so must also conclude games of men, these "games of chance"."

8/10/98 Friend of ANOTHER
"...$30,000 US will reflect the American debt as the negative reserve asset it truly is..."

"Physical gold will not reach $30,000/oz because noone is buying it! It will come to this level because the dollar, today, is already inflated to level that will bring this price. The perception that this dollar is "no longer a good reserve", it will bring the flood of buying. This "already printed and in circulation today" currency will seek gold!"

TownCrierA numerical reality check, or call it food for (ANOTHER's School of) Thought#13899912/9/05; 03:10:03

On the one hand, some gold skeptics think that gold's recent gains have grossly outpaced the underlying fundamentals, whereas a lot of other people who have been quite pleased and are somewhat excitable by gold's recent price performance, thinking also perhaps that it is too good to be true with half of their mind while anticipating further gains with the other half.

Indulge the numbers for a moment, and imaginine a continuation of this recent trend. With a steady rate of $5 gains per trading day (and without wasting ANY time on retracements), it would take 19 years(!) for the price of gold to attain the $30,000 suggested price level that ANOTHER used as his talking point.

If, indeed, the giants of the world (central banks figuring highly among them) anticipate that $30k per ounce is a reasonable ballpark revaluation level for gold in its new role (a primary MTM reserve), I think we can all agree that the CBs aren't going to get too terribly bent out of shape watching gold get there at the current snail's pace.

More to the point, I could EASILY imagine there to be ample latitude and incentive among them for not only casual acceptance of this price rise pace, but at some point for actually putting an accelerant under it to hasten the arrival.

It's impossible to say where we might currently be in the grand scheme of things, but it's quite possible that we shall one day be at a point where you are sitting on the sidelines with fistfuls of ready cash and a finger on the telephone, waiting for a retracement that never comes.

If you subscribe to ANOTHER's thesis, then ahead of us is nineteen years at +$5 per day gains on average, or else more likely than that a much more stunning arrival.

The goldenaire question of the day: Will you be a gold owner as things heat up, or will you be a pouting sidelined papermeister?


TownCrierAnalysts see gold strong on funds and fundamentals#13900012/9/05; 03:35:32

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold's bull run is likely to continue in the near term as the metal is getting tremendous support from investment funds and positive fundamental factors, analysts said on Thursday.

Gold demand was seen surpassing the mine supply...

"We have got a very positive scenario in the short term. From a trading point of view, there is still room for further strengths in prices," said Alan Williamson, head of commodity research at HSBC Bank.

"At the moment, gold is clearly very much in flavour. Gold is now rallying in all currencies."

Spot gold prices have risen nearly 20 percent this year on heavy buying by funds who have been diversifying their portfolios into commodities for better returns and on fears of inflation and economic growth. prices were expected to continue to rise in 2006 and it was not impossible to see gold spiking to $850 an ounce in 12 to 18 months. Physical markets have also been supporting the price rise...

"Diminishing rate of primary supply of gold to total above-ground pool is reviving gold's scarcity properties," said Georges Lequime, precious metals analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

Industry experts said mining costs had risen significantly over the past years because of more costly fuel, power, freight and labour.

^---(from url)---^

To ride this bull all the way to the final destination, it would be wise to choose the indomitable product instead of the beleaguered producers.


NedHoly Smokes !!#13900112/9/05; 03:59:23

Just got up on this golden Friday morn, 5:45 eastern, to see precious up Another 4 1/2 bucks. $524 is getting serious. Silver nudging 9 beans. Cool!

Wonder if we get one of those 'throw in the towel' crazy, $30/40/50 'short-covering, RWE days?

Wouldn't that be awesome.

Have a golden day.

PRITCHOThe Ant Farm - - - A Very Good Read #13900212/9/05; 05:29:46

I'm not a big fan of Don Stott but he has excelled himself here with a very simple message. Well worth the read.
slingshotPremiums, Dips and POG#13900312/9/05; 07:13:20

How long till we reach that point of "Gold at any Price?"

"What you going to do when it all goes down"
" Don't look back, don't ever turn around"

" Heat of the Night"
By Brian Adams

OvSA certain dark feeling.#13900412/9/05; 07:35:59

Gold deals are made among
the well connected. With a
handshake, but eyes averted.

Is there a monster derivative
cliff-hanger darkening the

I'd rather have a 5 year
45 degree ascending slope
of a goldprice increase,
then a sudden blow-up into
the thousands. Let's hope
it can be managed. OvS

contrarianDavid Linkley--Could not agree with you more!#13900512/9/05; 08:16:00

The message is a valuable one and worth repeating. There is absolutely no leadership and awareness of the problems the country is facing. Even if you were to look back to the 70s, there was at least an attempt (via the much maligned and perhaps not looking so bad now in comparison, Jimmy Carter) to address the fossil fuel issue.

(12/8/05; 21:08:32MT - msg#: 138989)
The light shines through

Unbacked fiat is no match for gold as the Comex paper pushers are being smoked. At some point expect an attempt at a counterpunch but how much will it matter? Our Congress merrily assures a higher deficit going forward with goodies for everyone. Lets see our great leadership in action:
* No efforts to move away from fossil fuels
* No effort to bring the budget under control
* No effort to address the trade deficit
* No efforts to address illegal immigration
* No efforts to address the pension crises

I could go on and on but you get the point, buy gold now while you can still pay dollars for it. We may reach a point where it's not available at any price.

OvSGold stocks getting more attention.#13900612/9/05; 08:18:11

Among the NY Stock Exchange's
25 most active stocks, Newmont
and today also Coeur d'Alene
are popping up. Things are

The HoopleRational exuberance#13900712/9/05; 08:29:33

It's funny to me how these $6 collars show up at alleged resistance levels - $500, $517 (about 3-$6 collars) $529 (2-$6 collars) $547 (3-$6 collars). It's very mathematical, almost like some Myron - Scholes LTCM genius discovered the power of 6 in price management. Hopefully they are tallying about 8-$6 collars to $600 and they probably didn't program the computer for how many collars $2,000 would take. Maybe after today they will have to go to expanded collar limits- $12, $18, $54.

I remain,
Rationally exuberant

OvSSomething IS happening.#13900812/9/05; 08:40:16

Gold and Silver are blowing
past all technical indicators
with a vengance.
A Sinclair follower complaint,
that since he sold his 1/3
he can't find a lower entry-
point to buy it back. Sinclair's
advise: bank the proceeds with
a smile and buy Canadian trea-

contrarianHoly Smokes!--$530!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!#13900912/9/05; 08:41:37

>$10 spike, so the old $6 rule has bitten the dust for good!
Galearisthe big one?#13901012/9/05; 08:51:03

We seem to have a flurry of massive margin calls and short covering going on in NY! We have lift-off!? James Sinclair will be feeling very ambiguous about this as $529 is his gold price that spells calamity for the US. As this figure is not inflation adjusted in value terms, he is probably incorrect,,,but others out there might buy (smile) into his scenario. At any rate,,,this is probably the day that all will remember (incorrectly) where gold broke out. We will likely be to $600 (after fewer retracements) in relatively faster order.

Silver's rise, of course does not look as impressive, but has out performed the yellow this month. Oh, and I believe that this is a breakout for silver against CAD (Canadian $). So now we play catch-up in silver as well.

Unless the PPT gets this under control, we could be in commercial signal failure in these metals....And I think the boyos who were running on the metals in COMEX knew that this was coming!

So did we!

The Hoople$12 collar?#13901112/9/05; 08:59:06

While I jested about expanded collar limits I noticed it did repel and sell off from +$12. Jeez, don't they know these computer program trades are what got Meriwether and his LTCM buddies in trouble. Attn. cabal: The old model doesn't work anymore. Time to call the Fed. Get a bail out now before you lose that East Hampton property. You might lose that Palm Beach gig but hey southern coastal properties are getting dicier anyway.
Druid(No Subject)#13901212/9/05; 09:10:21

Druid: For a future price guessing contest here at the Castle, what price will gold be at when "Helicopter" Ben takes over and will this be construed as his initiation into the fire?
KnallgoldPaper/physical#13901312/9/05; 09:37:07

And where is the paper Gold smoke,predicted since 360$?Can this just be covered under a carpet ad finitum?Altough the Gold shares,in my humble contrarian opinion,just doesen't show the returns predicted/used to be/to be expected,you can argue as much you can.Any Goldshare holders already converting to physical?

Every other week I seem to earn Another 1000sFr. per kilo.I hear people already saying "take profit'sell some"-not the best sign (I might rather wait until they want to buy from me)

But then,why should I sell my wealth at all???

Mr GreshamNo Bull!#13901412/9/05; 09:56:11 a Gold Bull!

Or I guess the old expression was "There's no rush like a Gold Rush."

Me, I've sort of targeted "no sales until it equals my mortgage payment" (smile) In case any PTB are listening, I won't specify that and allow them to target such a major resistance point (wink), but it's not a very fancy house, although it is a recent mortgage.

Just your average American, tryin' to catch a break...

Flatliner19 years? IMHO, more like 412 days#13901512/9/05; 10:03:19

You will not find me talking about the price of gold often. IMO, its value goes far beyond price and all will see this in due time. But, do not delay if you want some.

Organisms, like the price of gold, tend to move in a trading range. You all know that and see that happening daily. Does it wobble 5 bucks, or 1%? 1.5%? 2%? I do not know the absolute number, but I have observed that price is relative to the underlying item. Thus, if I see something that trades for 500 move 5, I don't think of it as a five dollar move, but a 1% move.

Bring up excel, (or your favorite spreadsheet) and run the numbers at 1% growth per day. You will find that 412 days of 1% growth will change 500 to 30,000.

SmeagolYesss...#13901612/9/05; 10:11:52

...a ten dollar move now is the same as five dollars back when It was 250... ssteady as she goes, Captain Goldheart!



Smeagolargh...#13901712/9/05; 10:20:10

remove the "u" from our lasst...
White RoseAsian gold trading may still rule Comex#13901812/9/05; 10:52:14

Based on my "asia rules" rule, I predicted (to my wife) that NY gold would close $6.30 up from yesterday. I just logged on and caught the $9 plus spike. We still have 40 minutes to go, and I think we may end up close to my prediction.

I think who-ever is buying on Comex is being very clever and trying not to spook the herd. I think the high end of th trading range in asia can be considered a value that is considered realistic by the current gold market.

No one wants a $50 spike that will upset the applecart. Gold is powering ahead, using asian money as price guidance.

Flatliner@Smeagol, Thank you.#13901912/9/05; 12:42:58

Value will be discovered.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.FREE Gold Information Packet -- to help you enter the market with grace and confidence!#13902012/9/05; 13:53:21

TownCrierPast, present, future#13902112/9/05; 14:14:05

Given the growth of global population and money creation over the past 25 years since gold's previous flirtation with price freedom (reaching $850 in 1980), using the linked graph as a visual aid you can easily see that the future is wide open and gold has plenty of upward room to explore.

Bottom line: price is nice, but ultimately it is utility that counts, and PHYSICAL gold is where it's at as gold is being returned to the throne as the principal international reserve asset. Dollar-bond holders beware.


CoBra(too)@ Mr. Gresham - Good to see you back -#13902212/9/05; 14:24:44

There's no Bull like a Gold Bull - True enough;

And for me it was proven again today as the "Co" in my handle went up more than 100% today in fiat currency, of course ... but still ... it's kind'a remarkable, even if the outcome is still a far cry of the original intent.

At least it's a first step towards again reaching for the sky - and it's definitely not blue sky!

Thanks and regards - cb2

TownCrierInternational gold#13902312/9/05; 14:27:40

MumbaiDecember 10, 2005 --

The international rally sprung from the gold buying spree of the Japanese government, treasurers and funds. They have bought about 125 tonne of gold in the last 15 days and they are set to buy another 125 tonne (open interest is 125 tonne). Therefore, as long as the Japanese investors are active, gold prices are not expected to ease, say experts.

The Japanese yen weakened further on Friday by about 2 yens against the dollar which is expected to strengthen their economy. However, interest rate is zero for the investor. Therefore, everybody has diverted their funds to buy gold as the metal is considered a safe haven.

Another reason for the spectacular rise in prices is that gold demand is seen surpassing the mine supply. Miners are not very keen on developing new sites since production costs have sharply risen.

This year spot gold prices have risen nearly 20 per cent on heavy buying by funds who have been diversifying their portfolios into commodities for better returns and on fears of inflation and economic growth.

The trend is expected to continue in 2006 too and $850 an ounce is not an impossible level in 12-18 months, say analysts.

^---(from url)---^

I think it highly unlikely that you hear the Fed chairman suggest "irrational exuberance" as he once infamously did with regard to stocks. Fundamentally gold is the perfect reserve asset, and any central banker worth his salt should know that the price rise thus far is but a mere droplet in the bucket.


TownCrierLustrous gold outshines the big currencies (a MUST read)#13902412/9/05; 15:20:48

(Financial Times) December 9 2005 -- The dramatic rise in the gold price over the past two weeks caught even the gold bulls by surprise. Many in the slowly growing ranks of gold enthusiasts had been expecting a short-term decline in the gold price, as a punctuation in a long-term rise.

Instead, they were caught by a sudden wave of buying on the Tokyo futures market. As with the rest of the world gold market, that had both an immediate and a long-term cause.

The immediate cause was the move by the Japanese investing public into gold futures as the most highly leveraged vehicle through which they could sell their currency short.

That is the short-term technical explanation. It obscures the larger trend that is emerging. While the immediate rise in gold has really been a decline in the yen, the rise in the price of gold is a sign of the markets' displeasure with all the major developed world currencies. Right now, the gold rise is pointing out the dilemma for the Japanese authorities in accommodating both the borrowing required by the recovery in private sector activity and a need to keep the enormous public debt refinanced at low interest rates.

* * * The truth is that all the major currency areas are burdened by debt and fiscal commitments that cannot be met out of their income. Some of these commitments will be paid. Some, such as US housing and consumer loans or European pension promises, will be defaulted on and some will be inflated away. The gold market has been anticipating the inflation component of this adjustment.

Furthermore, the chronic developing world debt crisis has now been turned on its head. No one seems to have told Bono, but the real debt problem is the developing world's growing holdings of shaky rich world debt. The developed currencies need to be collectively devalued relative to those of the rising powers. During the coming years of the gold bull market, the world monetary system will be reconfigured with a much larger role for emerging market currencies and a much more frugal life, relatively speaking, for people in developed countries.

The effect of advanced financial analysis, data gathering and computation has been to build ever larger inverted pyramids of debt and promises teetering on ever smaller bases of tangible assets.

The gold price in the major currencies may soon correct from the rapid rise of the past two weeks. After that, though, it will continue a fitful, but dramatic, increase over the next several years.

^---(from url)---^

Why take my word for it, when you can have a columnist in the Financial Times tell you very nearly the same thing.

Continue to ignore this at your own financial peril, or else do the heads up thing and get yourself a healthy diversification in gold to the maximum extent that your understanding of these conditions will comfortably allow.

USAGOLD-Centennial can help -- brokering gold deals with good advice and great prices since 1973!

The call is free. 1-800-869-5115


R PowellOvS // Druid#13902512/9/05; 15:58:40

OvS, you asked, "why coffee"? I thought I'd wait to reply until the weekend since it's mighty hard to connect coffee to precious metals. I speculate in many markets, always on long term fundamentals, as I perceive them, and I trade on a long term basis...since fundamentals do not provide an appreciable increase in the probability of being correct, in most markets, over any short time frame. Or, if they do, I haven't figured it out. But over a long enough time frame, markets are moved by supply and demand. Gold is maybe one of the hardest markets to analyse, much harder than transparent markets where year end carryover supply, new production + next year's demand are somewhat more easily estimated. But the same qualities that cloud transparency also amplify potential gains, especially in leveraged investments. Danger + opportunity, you know.

Druid, concerning changes in exchange rules, yes, the Exchange initiated a "liquidation only" situation in Comex shortly after the Hunts + middle eastern buyers ran the POS up to about $50.00/ounce. The Hunts had agreed to accept less than minimum quality metal + had agreed to roll over positions to ease the delivery problem, but to no avail. This rule change crashed the price immediately. Will it ever happen again? I don't know, I still have only death + taxes on my for-certain list, and I'm still searching for a way to cheat both. But I already own physical in hand. I play the casino with investment capital + expect to gain or lose only the same. If I wanted more physical, I'd buy it for cash on the barrelhead. My physical is personal property, my investments are speculative investments. They are quite different, especially with regards to risk.
happy weekend to all !

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The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

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FRIDAY Market Excerpts

Gold higher on 'massive' fund buying

December 9 (from DowJones) -- COMEX February gold futures settled up $7.50 to $530.20, reaching an intraday high of $534.30. Gold has risen all seven business days of December. At the session high, the market was up $35.60, or 7% since its end-of-November price.

Frank Lesh, futures analyst with Rand Financial Services, said much of the buying is based on the market's momentum. "Specs are buying and funds are buying," he said.

One dealer referred to the fund buying as "massive" and said his trading desk has been "swamped."

Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, pointed to increasing money supply from the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world.

"That's making money less valuable, and you can see the value of money declining relative to gold," he said. "Gold is how you measure paper currency. When gold is rising, it means currencies are losing value and purchasing power."

Schiff offered the view that inflation is a bigger problem than official government statistics would suggest. "Look at the money-supply growth around the world. That is the definition of inflation. And there is fear of future inflation.

"People around the world are saying, 'I want to hold my savings in gold'.

"When gold is going up like this, that's telling you something."

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---

TownCrierGLOBAL MARKETS-Gold is king in U.S. markets, oil down#13902712/9/05; 18:33:35

NEW YORK, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Gold was unstoppable yet again on Friday, hitting levels not seen in a quarter century...

Stocks gained as oil prices slipped below $60 ... but despite the good news, all three major indexes ended the week lower, with the Nasdaq snapping a 7-week winning streak...

Treasury debt ended lower, capping a week of see-saw trading by wary investors ahead of next Tuesday's Federal Reserve meeting ... which could be a turning point in the dollar's year-long rally.

"The technical and fundamental tone of the dollar has deteriorated in recent sessions and further losses are likely in the week ahead," said Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman. "The fact the dollar was not bought on either good news from the United States or poor news from Europe and Japan illustrates a potentially important shift in market psychology."

Gold fever sent prices as high as $530.40 an ounce for the first time in nearly 25 years as investors, particularly in Asia, rushed to buy an asset that has gained over 16 percent in the past month alone.

"This buying is just more of the same of what we have been seeing. I suspect also that it may be central bank buying that is supporting it on the dips," said Paul Merrick of RBC Capital Markets.

^---(from url)---^

Any guesses what these various Asian investors might be talking about with their friends over the weekend?

What will YOU be talking about? And still, "Main Street" has yet to catch on and consider diversification.


GoldiloxGold Chart#13902812/9/05; 19:25:46


It looks like your L-T gold chart is in serious need of revision, as it doesn't even reflect $500 yet.

GoldiloxGold Chatter#13902912/9/05; 19:31:06

I must admit, a few, but not many, of my friends are taking notice of POG > $500. Mostly I smile and say little, but I had a long phone call with one tonight who wondered if he had "missed the boat." We may have a new recruit, as I sent him here for information.

The higher POG rises, the less we need to say, as it is (and always has been) its own best ambassador.

GoldiloxGold and Fractals#13903012/9/05; 19:40:01


George, gold, like other fluid tradeable commodities, equities, and bonds has its own interested group of investors and supporting money. Gold, while recently surging to multiyearly highs with the help of Chinese and Indian acquired dollars for Xmas foo foo snow bears and onerous dinnertime telemarketing sales respectively, is remarkably about 300 dollars shy of its spectacular second-cycle second fractal growth in 1980. Considering the sky high amount of dollars created since 1980, and their puny and weakened purchasing power (consider the cost of a San Diego house in 1980), gold's recent performance in its third 13-14 year fractal growth has been underwhelmingly anemic and unimpressive.

Gold has roughly followed the CRB since commodities lows were made in concert with equities in 1932, the end of the first half equity fractal cycle of the Second Grand Fractal starting in 1858. 36 years later a slight fractal stir was made with a detectable initiating growth fractal in gold from 1968 to 1970. This initiating fractal sequence was shared somewhat between the concluding sequence of the first fractal growth cycle from 1932 to 1970 and the second cycle growth from 1968/70 to present. From 1970 the three phase multiyearly growth fractal sequence has occurred: 6-7/16-17 (ending in 1992/93)/ and 13-14 years ending in 2005/06. The weakest of this final 13-14 year third fractal sequence is profoundly demonstrated by its intermediate timeframe breakdown in dollar-based gold prices between 1996-2001 where the price dipped below 300 US dollars. (where we bought in big - GU)

At the end of this current fractal 2x 13-14 year growth sequence, a good portion of creditors owning US bonds and cash equivalents are members of the eastern world who have traditionally measured wealth in units of the yellow metal. Considering the inherent traditional eastern propensity to acquire gold, it is quite amazing, that with their dollar and dollar equivalent holdings, gold's price has not exceeded its 1980 second fractal price. While the total quantity of world gold in last twenty-five years has not changed appreciably, the 1980 price was supported by perhaps less than ten percent of the currently available dollars and dollar equivalents. This paradox is indicative of the amount of debt that is asset and official debt instrument obligated and which depresses and determines the real amount of investment money available in the complex money system.

If, as the current gestalt fractal macro progression strongly suggests, credit soon will contract - as macroeconomically determined by debt load, asset overproduction, and asset and service inflation relative to inadequately increasing consumer wages - all asset classes will suffer the concrete reality effects of contracting values of assets and ubiquitous asset devaluation, just as has occurred in every preceding major 60-80 year cyclical, fractal, and macroeconomic devolution. At the end of the decay process, the East will still have its indestructible dollars and bonds, which will be useful in acquiring the world's residual and finite energy stores. At or near the bottom of the devolution, the only other politically allowable cash conversion for foreign held dollars will be towards the acquisition of the barbaric yellow relic. And even more so after the conclusion of prior major credit cycles, gold (and oil) will lead the depressed commodities in the next rising phoenix of fractal growth evolution.

While the first terminal equity fractal cycle of XAU and NEM was 56 days in length , their second fractal cycles exceeded 140 days to their nodal lows with an expected third fractal equaling the integrative maximal 2.5x as determined by the averaged first and second fractals respectively. The recent gap in XAU is suggestive that the third terminal 2.5 x fractal is in its finals days. The daily count for physical COMEX gold is 8/17 of16-20. For those thinking the apex of the third 13-14 year fractal will challenge its second fractal high in 1980, think again. The coming devolution in asset prices will completely and rapidly suck out the smaller volume of hot air and available cash that is supporting the 2005 gold balloon. Relative to its remarkable performance in 1980, which was uninfluenced and unsupported by the now massive dollars holdings of the Eastern aurophiles, the apical conclusion of the third fractal will retrospectively, in a grand context, be seen as going out with a moderate hiccup and whimper, rather than a boom. Gary Lammert


Still digesting, but I thought it worth a post.

GoldiloxWhy Coffee, indeed#13903112/9/05; 19:56:52


In 2001, I was looking at small coffee farms on the south shore of Hawaii. Most of the 5-10 acre variety were in the $250-300K range with a nice living quarters and view. Since then, as the bottom has dropped out of coffee, I've seen some discounts to those prices, though some have been propped up by the RE bubble. Hawaii is still "resort" property, after all.

Coffee shows a lot of signs of bottoming, especially the public distaste for coffee as an investment class. Probably not a bad time to get into a healthy long-term investment, although I would prefer a "gentleman" farm with Pacific Ocean views to any paper equivalents.

My other concern was my affinity to Kona peaberry, as I might find myself pretty strung out! My last trip I brought home a pound for my roomie, and he made his typical "truck driver" pot of morning drip. I thought he had eaten a whole bag of chocolate espresso beans, as I peeled him from the ceiling.

Rook51#13903212/9/05; 20:46:55

If the Japanese are the ones buying 125 tones of gold, with 125 more stated to be bought next by them, I can only say that this needs analyzing from the perspective of why does the fed want the Japanese to do this.
The Japanese are basically employees of the Fed. If the Fed wants gold to rise by the Japanese efforts, why?
Having the Japanese buy gold might be to counter another central bank that is buying gold against the rules. Make that other central bank pay more? Are countries like Iran and venezuala buying?
I dont know, I figure there are lots of reasons for the regular guy to buy, but for Japan to buy, maybe central banks are not out of line, but perhaps individual investors are buying more, so the Fed wants to run the price up sooner rather than later, thereby getting investors to think the run up happened already, and on and on. Whatever, I just think finding out the Japanese are big buyers deserves some attention. What is the Fed up to.

RookFT is leading where?#13903312/9/05; 22:09:42

Towncrier, This comment from the FT you posted, Thanks for doing that. I must be riddled with doubt in even the most august of financial bodies.
"The truth is that all the major currency areas are burdened by debt and fiscal commitments that cannot be met out of their income. Some of these commitments will be paid. Some, such as US housing and consumer loans or European pension promises, will be defaulted on and some will be inflated away. The gold market has been anticipating the inflation component of this adjustment."
Doesnt that apply only to non us countries? The fed can undergird the loans and also the loans FT mentioned that the third world is making. On the other hand, stupendous amounts have been lost by investors in enron, worldcom, that italian company, and the list just goes on and on.
I guess it comes down to as the FT says, SOME of these committments will be paid.
I guess if/when the hard time hits in a systemic way, the big boys will cherry pick who gets saved, and how, and with what kind of strings attached for whatever overall goal. Those with the connections, those with the elements that must be sustained, those that fit into the next great new deal plan, will be those that are called the "some of the committments will be paid."
Is that what keeps countries in line? Or one of the things?
The knowledge that if hard times hit, those countries that have toed the line will not be shut out of the money loop by the controllers at that time? If not shut out totally, but not favored. There is no international "controlling authority" (to use a goreism), that garuntees some fair system of allocation of money in a future depression.
The promise of a controlling authority might be keeping a lot of countries in line now.
That thing of "for us or against us" really seemed to mean something to countries around the world. Reserve currency does come with powers. And guys at the top do wield them, and do let others know that they COULD wield them in a tougher way. I cannot take FT comments without wondering how are they manipulating. Not always do they, but I dont know when they do or dont, so all are suspect.

When the last? treasury secretary did that study on debt of the us, and left treasury talking like he did, all I could think was, Is he a total actor? Seemed like he was not, so is it the case that even a Treasury sect. could be out of the loop, or is there no loop at all? No loop at all is like saying there is no god. No overall controlling authority. However popular that view is or is not on the forum, that view is scary.
There must be two factions in the financial world and govt. one for the globalization one world model, which debt embrace leads us to, and one faction that figures, "get it while you can" and doesnt mind using the mirage of a one world future because it assists in the beneficial period now, where in effect, we bleed the world of goods and minerals and raw materials, wants the US to go along into the future maintaining an independent, tough luck to you lesser folk, have and have not permanent future.
Or maybe they figure the one world thing is impossible to pull off anyway given human nature, and just plain old bad luck, or good luck depending on your view, dont care what happens as long as reserve currency stays put, and want the US to stay in a debt level that works for the longest amount of time, and play the game which has as its inevitable end, the disappointment of any hopes of poorer folks to join haves in a new world order, but is merely a phase of incredible plunder without a goal of a new financial structure that shares future hard times more evenly. I vote for the possibility of a controlled money rain that shares all more evenly, but is that Gods idea on a good future? It just seems like the fork in the road we face is not metioned, globalization gets the muted nod, the approving nod, but that does not mean we have reached the fork where the decision really is. Which way will we go?
If we were really headed knowingly to a shared money rain different financial model, wouldnt we see different behaviours from powers that be? Maybe there is no chance we will make that decision and will straddle the two pushing the decision point again and again off into the future. That is probably the route. We will muddle unless forced. Circumstance will determine. Combined with how good we are at that time.

Liberty HeadWow! What a month!#13903412/9/05; 22:10:56

POG up more than 16% in 30 days. We passed $500 and the turbos kicked on. We all know there will be some corrections along the way and volatilty is a given, but what a ride, huh? The steepest climb I've seen and it happened above $500.

These spikes are like hor'deurves before the main meal begins. Savor them. Have a glass of wine. Share jokes and stories with friends. Good things are cooking in the kitchen. Before this party is over, the urge to dance will be irresistable.
Dun, dun dun, dun dun dun
Dun, dun dun, dun dun dun
ay ay ay
Dun, dun dun, dun dun dun
Oh yeah!

I hope you all got your dancin' shoes on.

Best Wishes

Mr GreshamC-B2#13903512/9/05; 22:31:59

Thanks! I'm tunning over to my Yahoo scorecard now to see if our little stinker is returning to par...
Rookgods love of drama I suppose.#13903612/9/05; 22:32:05

Is is not the case that in typically human paradoxical behaviour, our efforts seem to circle around and end up being in front of us and we push against ourselves?
Those that appear to be on the side of a globalist shared financial future, oppose for other reasons, those whose help they need to bring about that future. The one world communism requres actions that present socialists oppose.
To get there, you need to have one reserve currency, one power center, and yet socialists only see Bush actions as empire. Is it true that to get to that decision point, to even get there, if we do, and we are close perhaps, well, we are actually, you cannot have more than one controlling force? One reserve currency power center that is capable of being the basis of a one world financial order.
Shouldnt the do gooders know this, see that it is only at the decision point that thier fight is, and work to win at that point. Rather than fight the drive for power and control that is our only hope of getting to that point, and getting us into a more equitable future.

PRITCHO@Rook -- Re "gods love of drama I suppose"#13903712/9/05; 22:48:30

What was that all about ? Are you saying that ALL should be with the Bushies as you cannot have more than one controlling power?

I hope you didn't mean that.Thinking Americans should all feel guilty enough as is, with electing that gang of criminals who are despised world wide.

The "I vote for the possibility of a controlled money rain that shares all more evenly " from your earlier post is also scary thinking.This is a site where you can learmn about Gold. I'd suggest you do so.

RookGive that model a name.#13903812/9/05; 22:55:18

MK, what has got me is your post of a month ago. Your model for the future gold basis. I view it as meritorious.
Tweaking is required, as govt's enforcing decisions, and govts coming to general agreements is subject to lots of factors, but heck, it is plausible.
We could go that way. I have read of no other model being presented by anyone. The guy that wrote the DOS program that Bill Gates bought had no way to predict that his program would be the right thing at the right time, and would be the engine for so much. Your like that guy, building a model that could fit depending if factors allow.
You get an A plus, really. Who am I of course, but I dont think I am wrong to see it as a dang impressive piece of work. Congrats. I am still looking at it.

Liberty Head@Rook#13903912/9/05; 23:01:05

Perhaps the ignorant, bumbling do gooders aren't that at all.
Perhaps they are very clever do baders, more like wolves in sheeps clothing.
The ignorant, bumbling part is played by their sheepish flockers.
Oh well, either way there is plenty of drama for the gods to feast upon. Our drama is their cat food. The worse it smells the more they like it, or so I've heard.

Best Wishes

goldquest@PRITCHO#13904012/9/05; 23:11:28

As a "Thinking American," I can assure you that I feel no guilt when it comes to the so called election of the present administration.
I do however, feel anger that the last two American presidential elections turned into a mockery and a freak side show.
In the case of the last election, when a biased Supreme Court got to choose the president, the American system and constitution, is in dire straits and in jeopardy of total collapse.

Rookiffins#13904112/9/05; 23:21:51

Pritcho, well, "socialists" was the wrong term actually.
Those that view our present system as too much of a rich mans game, might say it better? Those that dont like bad behaviour, environmentally, culturally, economically. Those folks. You fit in there I believe.
The Bush guys do work for multiple goals, forgive the iffy writing skills, the idea is that despite the mess, in all its varied ramifications, maybe good could come out of the reserve currency guys drive for power and control.
If it is possible to elect a guy in there next who sees the shot we have at doing a equitable global thing, and if all factors needed line up, some global money rain communism laced with capitalism might be best for people as a whole.
It is a chance that has slim odds, seeing how we are made.
But we are darn close. So called right wing guys can make a strong case that freedom and American independence is at stake in avoiding a shared money rain because the power and control that the financial overlord will have.
Without Jedi to enforce it, can it be done? On a planetwide scale? Done in a way that works?
Can you get there from this phantom derivitive based present system? Does the greenspan/bereneke type guys even care too? I hear him talk about the US printing press, I dont find any sentences about how globalism leads us to a result. Are/Will those guys give the reserve currency to the UN? Will they go full permanent Fiat? Or is MK the guy who first planted the flag in the vision of the future.
Chaos is a future option, Community might be, MK's gold based structure could very well be it, and perhaps has the most chance. I would like to see us try the community route. If all the factors line up for it, does all it requre at that point is for there to be a leader there?

Chris PowellThinking Americans and other Americans#13904212/9/05; 23:30:42

Pritcho's remark about "thinking Americans" recalls the famous story about Adlai Stevenson, who, campaigning for president, was told by an admirer, "All thinking Americans are behind you."

"It's not enough," Stevenson replied. "I need a majority."

Yes, many people are ignorant, especially about economic issues, having not had much education in that respect. But we're not going to educate people much if we begin by calling them stupid and heaping contempt on them as if they are hopeless. They have their reasons for thinking and voting as they do. We have to give them better reasons. If they don't come around, it may be just as much our fault as theirs.

ski@ Galearis, Rhody, Flatliner, R. Powell etc.#13904312/9/05; 23:52:00

Thanks for the recent discussion and facts concerning the Comex physical silver withdrawls. I understand the silver story, but my Comex knowledge is a blind spot. I suspect the Comex is a "house of mystery" for many of us and is a big reason for the lack of active discussion on the recent physical movements.

The fact that some 48% of all registered silver has changed hands "sounds impressive".... but I still wonder what this actually means. After all, if we saw the trucks hauling off all that delivered silver it would really mean something wouldn't it? But actual physical withdrawls are not yet in evidence from what I gather from the posts.

Isn't it possible that we could view the new silver owners as nothing more than a single poker chip changing hands during a long night of poker playing?

Whatever the case, any further Comex information would be most helpful.

Perhaps other forum readers know of PM's being in short supply in their area??
You should be careful of what you hope for. Case in point. Long ago, Ted Butler pointed out that one of the complaints concerning silver was that YOU GOT TOO MUCH FOR YOUR MONEY. Well, these people are getting their wish. You are getting less and less for your money nearly everyday!!!!

Liberty Head@Rook#13904412/10/05; 00:16:19

"maybe good could come out of the reserve currency guys drive for power and control."

Liberty Head
There isn't enough lipstick in the universe for that pig.

"some global money rain communism laced with capitalism might be best for people as a whole."

Liberty Head,
You presume to know what's best for me, without consulting me either. Shame on you sir.
Get thee to a nunery.

Best Wishes

PRITCHO@Rook - -Re 139041 (iffins) #13904512/10/05; 00:39:23

"If it is possible to elect a guy in there next who sees the shot we have at doing a equitable global thing, and if all factors needed line up, some global money rain communism laced with capitalism might be best for people as a whole."
Don't know why you think that the USA should be doing the Global "thing" -- even with another crew of idiots in charge. It should be obvious that there is a big enough mess to clean up in your own back yard without pissing off the rest of the World. No need to spell it all out but enough to say that the money saved would go a long way to give everyone there a better lifestyle.

Just pay for the oil - - - - -

contrarianrook--japanese buying gold#13904612/10/05; 01:06:34

Like you said, it's obvious Fed is giving permission to Japs to buy tons of gold. Perhaps as a reward for kowtowing to the party line? The Fed knows the run up that will happen to gold, and while it can, is giving its friends a heads up and the proverbial "wink" that they'll look the other way while the Japs do their best to hedge against a dollar disaster; otherwise, Japs could just take huge hit and sell off all those Treasury bills, and bring the dollar crashing down.

That's the only thing I can think of, but it seems to make some sense. You let them feel good while you can, like you're doing them a favor, especially when the gold hasn't hit the stratosphere yet, and you still can swallow your lumps.

You, the Fed, will then be better positioned to call your cards in later, when the going gets really rough, and things really matter (when the dollar implodes). After all, you can't screw your friends all the time.

PRITCHOFrom Richard Russells Latest Remarks - - - -#13904712/10/05; 01:29:43

Snip: (From Beginning)
December 9, 2005 -- Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) --

Iraq, which is dragging down President George W. Bush's public standing, is also creating a dilemma for Democrats torn between riding the wave of opposition to the war and fear of looking soft on national security. Russell Comment -- Republicans, the party of fools. They started a war, and now the war is eating them alive. Democrats, the party of cowards. They went along with the war, and now they're totally clueless as to what to do about the war -- or anything else, for that matter.
The Investment Company Institute reports that U.S. mutual fund investors sank $9.39 billion into foreign markets but pulled $2.93 billion out of American stock mutual funds in October.

Russell Comment -- the word is getting out; foreign markets along with foreign competition is placing increasing pressure on the US. India in particular is where the action is. In 1990, 33% of all diamonds were cut and polished in India. Last year 90% of all diamonds were cut and polished in India.

This from yesterday's Financial Times -- Microsoft 's workforce will expand more rapidly in India than in any other country in the world over the next three to four years according to Bill Gates, the software makers chairman. The US company will hire 4,000 people in India over this period, taking its head-count in this country to 7,000. "India is the absolute leader in IT services offered on the world market," said Gates. It's accelerating, the learning curve just gets better and better."

The COMEX has raised margin requirements for gold contracts to 50 percent. I've seen such action kill other commodities. So far, it does not seem to have affected gold. That could be that a lot of the gold buying goes directly into bullion coins or into CEF or GLD. Of course, gold is very international and buyers on the gold exchanges in Dubai or China don't give a damn what the Comex does. When an item wants to go up, it's going to go up regardless of a regulator's actions.
I want to talk a bit about gold. I read the newspapers and the various comments about gold every day, and most are talking about gold rising on the basis of inflation. Few are talking about the real reason for gold's rise -- a move (not yet a flight) out of fiat junk currencies. You see, that's the thesis that nobody wants to deal with -- the fact that fiat paper money is "garbage money," money that can't and won't hold its purchasing power.

So gold isn't rising on the basis of inflation. If the markets were worried about inflation, bonds would be caving in -- and they're not. No, sophisticated investors see the massive amounts of US debt, and they know that ultimately that debt will be monetized. They know that the purchasing power of the dollar is heading into the basement, which is why sophisticated investors are opting for tangible wealth -- gold.

The chart below shows that gold is severely overbought. The extended rising trendline has morphed into a much steeper rising trendline. Those already in gold are wondering how long this overbought advance can continue, and they are wondering when the inevitable correction arrives, how severe it will be. Those who are not in gold are either bad-mouthing it or waiting for the correction to buy, assuming they will buy at all.

In the meantime, gold acts as though it's in a world of its own, ignoring its overbought RSI, ignoring MACD, ignoring the acute angle of its ascent, ignoring everything but the fact that investors all over the world want gold in their portfolios.

The red arrows below tell the overbought story. So should you buy gold or more gold here? Not according to technical analysis. But there are times when technical analysis doesn't work. This may be one of those times.

And - - Snip:
A bit more on gold -- If the dollar turns weak, how will the world know? Easy, the dollar will turn weak against other currencies, mainly the euro and the yen, and we probably should include the pound sterling and the Canadian dollar along with the Aussie dollar.

But right now ALL the currencies are weak against the standard -- gold. So it's ironic, if all paper sinks against real money, the only place it will show is in rising gold. Which is what is happening now. Actually, this morning the dollar was down .07 and the euro was up .13, But both were weak against gold.

The public doesn't see it that way. The public hears that the dollar was down very slightly today -- translation, the dollar was down only slightly against other currencies. But against real money, the dollar got whacked.

SundeckDollar weakness and Japanese buying gold#13904812/10/05; 04:29:06

Why are Japanese buying gold? Here is most of the answer:

The Yen is declining rapidly against gold, so Japanese people are swapping their yen for gold...most of which is first acquired via the BOJ.

The cause is the effect and the effect is the cause.


Dollar weakness.

The US dollar may have shown "strength" against other currencies for the last year or so, but it is continuing to show ever increasing weakness against real things like oil and copper and gold and houses and other "things".

Japan is happy to have a yen that is weakening against the dollar...makes them more competitive versus the US and China. Japanese hedge losses from their weakening currency by selling it and buying higher interest-bearing dollar-assets and gold.

The US dollar can stay forever "strong" while-ever it is compared with other countries fiat's all a race to the bottom. Few countries are going to stand up and nobley allow their currencies to appreciate substantially against the dollar...we have global inflation...a sea of dollars and a sea of dollar-derivatives (other countrys' paper). The greater the dollar tsunami, the greater all the derivative tsunamies (pounds, yen, francs, euros, etc)'s easy!

"What ever you can do, I can do betterrrr...

I can do anything betterrr than you!"

...while the pundits get lost in the infinite cycle:

"No you can't!"

"Yes I can!"

"No you can't!"

Yes I can!"

etc, etc, ad infinitum...

The dollar index stays constant while-ever countries expand their monetary bases at the same rate...

Meanwhile....people buy gold...

Makes me wonder why Buffett went short the dollar by choosing five other currencies rather than housing or aluminium or gold or coal or other businesses at home or abroad... Perhaps when he took out the position he was worried about the threat of deflation, where currencies actually gain value. What he is going to get back from his present position is likely to be seriously devalued (foreign) paper which he will have to exchange for seriously devalued (US) paper. He may make a profit in dollar terms, but I suspect he is going to lose in substance (gold, housing, copper, steel, businesses, etc).



geGOLD/CRB Chart#13904912/10/05; 05:04:56

At the 10 year neckline, again.
BelgianGOLD : Keep it simple, please.#13905012/10/05; 06:04:05

Hoi Pritcho : RR is right to leave gold and the infla "story" for what it is (rather isn't). He made one little mousestep forward...but still in the complete dark (imvho opinion, of course).

Let's simplify gold's evolving future in easy wordings : Today, the barter value of "one" ounce gold equals "one" bicycle. Gold, under (rather in) the $-IMS regime, wishes that same "one" ounce of bullion to decline in barter value equal a doughnut.
Another, competing regime, wishes to see the barter value of that "one" ounce gold unit evolve equal a car...a house.

One regime wants, gold-the MONEY, depreciate permanently and the other regime wants, gold-the WEALTH, to appreciate.
Here we have "money" versus "wealth". Who fabricates the money and who fabricates/holds the wealth, on this planet ?

Holding a goldmetal unit (ounce or gram) and seeing to depreciate its exchange/barter value for tangibles is NOT the definition for gold-wealth. This corresponds with the depreciating purchasing power of fiat internally and externally.
Holding a goldmetal unit and see its purchasing power for tangibles remain the same over simply forgetting the loss of purchasing power that gold had to suffer during the past SEVEN DECADES !!!

>>> Today, the dollar derivatized world, wants to revalue gold up until it has reached the correct purchasing power that it should have had, without the 7 decades of dollar-regime, that permanently depreciated gold's purchasing power by locking it into the ($)money context.

Gold is in the process of telling us that money is NOT wealth !!!
Soros 1987 (crash year-18 years ago) : Financial assets (money) continue to accumulate at a pace which outstrips the creation of real wealth ...and this disparity (already existing-observed by Soros, 18 years ago) is one of those excesses (there are much more of these) that needs to be corrected.

At that time, Soros didn't yet realized that gold was to evolve as a wealth (barter)reserve as to provide the cushion for the coming shocks ... that the systemic expansion (!!!) of imbalances exposes the global financial system to (yet) unknown risks.

The entire planet embarked on a process to find out what the real wealth-barter worth of a gold unit is worth. That's why goldmetal as a reserve will function perfectly to absorp internal/external shocks...for the states' CBs and individuals as well. Repeat > Gold as an appreciating wealth tangible and not as a depreciating money !

It is for this reason that we already have more than enough goldmetal above ground !!!

Gold, evolving to a wealth barter and reserve, must happen with as least shocks as possible. There is no room for sudden detoriating confidence in financial markets and economies, whilst the Gold-wealth transition is taking place.

I sincerely hope having put some more light on the GOLD = WEALTH notion.

GoldiloxBuffett and his dollar short#13905112/10/05; 08:52:46

@ Sundeck,

"Makes me wonder why Buffett went short the dollar by choosing five other currencies rather than housing or aluminium or gold or coal or other businesses at home or abroad... "

This must be looked at in the context of his silver position and his acquisition of natgas pipelines.

Like the BOJ buying "some" gold, he can't put all his eggs into one basket without tipping the cart too much.


MKFinancial Times signals changes in London town gold thinking -- A speculation#13905212/10/05; 09:42:29

In the past two days, the Financial Times -- the paper read by major policy- and market-makers in London and beyond -- has run five articles on the gold market. When taken as a whole, these articles do not deliver much in the way of "the new" for members of this illustrious table. More important for us is FT's confirmation of the bull market elements posted here months, even years, ago. We were right and the message is now being delivered in the world of "influence." This in itself is a cause for cheer among gold owners and enthusiasts, because it alludes to the long-term nature of the change in the gold market. FT's coming out on gold represents a major shift in financial establishment thinking.

Why is this happening?

Let's first elaborate on the fact that many of the key ingredients to the gold bull market discussed here with regularity are now being delivered on a plate to the Financial Times readership -- central bank demand, investor demand in Asia and the MidEast, currency flight, etc. This in itself represents a major break with the past when the mainstream press expended its gold allotment on running down the prospects for the metal. Opinion and commentary was controlled by the gold bears housed in the major bullion trading houses in London and New York.

The fact that John Dizard's opinion piece ("Lustrous gold outshines the big currencies" referenced here yesterday by Towncrier), appeared not in its regular space, but on the opinion page sends an unmistakable signal to the pink page readership -- gold is now an acceptable subject for discussion. Better yet, it might signal that gold "needs" to be discussed because, despite the best efforts of its detractors, it refuses to go away.

The last paragraph in that Dizzard piece sums up that signal:

"The gold price in major currencies may soon correct from the rapid rise of the past two weeks. After that, though, it will continue a fitful, but dramatic increase over the next several years."

One of the more direct and simplified explanations for the surprise reinstatement of gold could be that the trading houses now recognize that any money to be made will be made on the brokerage side of the gold business -- getting gold to its customers -- than on the trading side. (The article in FT's Markets section sums up the sentiment: Gold the clear winner in a lacklustre field.) I alluded to this possibility back when N.M. Rothschild exited the London AM/PM price fixing group. I raised the possibility then that Rothschild's primary interest might be to find physical metal for its clientele -- including mine companies short the metal -- and that leaving the group relieved them of any potential conflict of interest.

Now, we can entertain the notion that there could be a big business for the London trading houses servicing gold demand emanating from the Gulf, Asia, Russia, the United States, et al.

Reports circulating this weekend about the flow of Gulf money into London are a case in point. Because of Sarbanes-Oxley and the war on terrorism, Gulf money is now gushing into London as a safe-haven. Gulf investors are sidestepping New York fearing that the U.S. government in a fit of rectitude or rightful reaction could seize Arab assets. Much of that money is going into U.S. Treasuries (UK holdings have jumped 80% to more than $180 billion during the first nine months of 2005), but knowing the Gulf's proclivity to own gold, we can guess with some confidence that much petrocash is being funnelled into the yellow metal as well -- at least as much as the physical market can accomodate.

Gold has been in a steady rise since mid-July and one is inclined to believe that the demand for actual, physical metal is behind it. Paper traders take paper profits and we haven't seen much in the way of corrections since mid-July. Such price action carries with it the unmistakable mark of physical interest -- someone buying because they believe the metal itself is a better holding than any of its paper antecedents. It also tells us that someone is buying because they believe gold is a better holding than of the major currencies, as Dizard explains in his editorial, and we have discussed at length at this forum.

One of the characteristics of the strong gold market price action over the past few months, as mentioned above, is the lack of a major selloff in any of the primary markets across the globe. Prices have been upheld around the clock. As soon as one market closes the price not only holds in the next opening, it often goes higher -- London, New York, Australia, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Dubai, Switzerland, then back to London. As rising and sustained oil price fuels global inflation, global investors, including oil producers like the Gulf States and Russia, latch onto gold -- an irony with nearly perfect symmetry.

I found this observation by John Dizard (rightly highlighted by TC) particularly insightful ("inciteful" if you are an investor):

"The truth is that all the major currency areas are burdened by debt and fiscal commitments that cannot be met out of their income. Some of these commitments will be paid. Some, such as US housing and consumer loans or European pension promises, will be defaulted on and some will be inflated away. The gold market has been anticipating the inflation component of this adjustment.

Furthermore, the chronic developing world debt crisis has now been turned on its head. No one seems to have told Bono, but the real debt problem is the developing world's growing holdings of shaky rich world debt. The developed currencies need to be collectively devalued relative to those of the rising powers. During the coming years of the gold bull market, the world monetary system will be reconfigured with a much larger role for emerging market currencies and a much more frugal life, relatively speaking, for people in developed countries."

And, I might add a much larger role for gold. The Dizard reference hearkens back to my "political post" of several weeks back mentioned by Rook last night. You never know who might be reading these pages.

mikal@MK, Goldilox#13905312/10/05; 10:43:03

@MK - Nice post. Quite a noticeable change at FT (and elsewhere), yes?
Now it will be interesting to watch FT and other mainstream media's evolving viewpoint. Our major local newspaper is beginning to carry an occasional article on gold (for a change), but like FT, still with some reservations and omissions.

@Goldilox- Re: Warren Buffet, dollar position and "This must be looked at in the context of his silver position and his acquisition of natgas pipelines.
Like the BOJ buying "some" gold, he can't put all his eggs into one basket without tipping the cart too much."
I would like to know if he still has some sizable bets against the U.S. $index. These could pay off here soon.
Also, whether rumors about his leasing out his silver have any substance.
Could be know one really knows how much silver (or gold) guys like Bill Gates, George Soros, Warren Buffet, Charlie Munk), John Templeton, Alan Greenspan, et al control.

Galearis@ Ski re Ag deliveries#13905412/10/05; 11:12:32

I've been typing continuously for 2 hours and my fingers (and head) are getting tired. So I will try pasting some of my brother (rhody's) words from MIDAS. Both he and I are one on the subject:

Meanwhile over on COMEX there were 8 contracts delivered in silver and 7 contracts delivered in gold. None of this is leaving COMEX stockpiles. Some of these deliveries may be related to black box buying to cover futures sold naked short. This would drive up the spot price, but the metal might not leave the warehouse (yet). The other possibility is that the metal is left at COMEX under changed ownership in order to not spook the exchange or goose the spot price too much. There is nothing more bullish looking than imploding COMEX precious metal stockpiles. So this could all be a stealth run on COMEX stocks.

The only thing I recall about "normal" silver deliveries is that they tend to be about 1.5Moz during a delivery month. This is under the COMEX limit that can hold deliveries to 1500 contracts, or 7.5 Moz. Through all of this year, the deliveries on COMEX has been well over this 7.5 Moz limit, but the metal has stayed in the stockpile and only the ownership has changed.


I hope that helps. Keep in mind that this has gone on since September inclusive including the non-delivery months inbetween. GIven this, then one could perhaps assume that ALL the registered stockpile has changed hands during the last two delivery months; the totals certainly reflect this. If one considers that this is the same event,,,that it is a continuum thingy going to some goal, then it certainly looks like a positioning of those intimate with the silver market to take ownership (before) for what would otherwise be a huge short squeeze. There will be a squeeze still, but I surmise that what we are seeing is a grab on the metal to at least perpetuate the paper market for a bit longer and relieve some of the actual physcial metal demand pressure. It is the only thing left for them to do considering what is ahead. Hmmm,,what is ahead?

Assume thru all this that the POS will continue to rise (correction(s) will also be expected) and if (as I continue to surmise) that the commercial side are the majority of new owners, then they are simply positioning themselves for when these registered stockpiles do indeed become the stockpile of last resort. One could continue to surmise that this next (spec) run (this next time) will also be interesting in light of what has already been said about silver lately. Silver should start to go balistic!

But the naked shorting may well be a thing of the past. Leasing silver may also be a thing of the past or in serious decline. So the two things needed for the manipulation are going to be in,,,,,'short supply (grin): unrestrained naked shorting involving rediculous tonnage of paper silver to depress the price with "supply of silver" , and leased metal metal dumped on the market to make up the deficit of real metal. These two factors having altered should see silver fly. Welcome to a freer market!

Or if you read mainstream press, silver should correct back to $6 or so. Which interpretation does one believe? This one on USAGOLD or some commodities staff writer for X Magazine? Heck, maybe they (just) aren't watching deliveries either. (Smile)

The truth is always in the details. Two bad there are always not enough supply of these too!
Best regards, and FWIW.


Galearisre last post#13905512/10/05; 11:17:33

apologies for the typos. Forgot to spell check,


MKMerrill Lynch's gold forecast#13905612/10/05; 11:43:28

Well, you've got to hand it to Merrill Lynch. They really know how to put themselves out there -- in the forefront, always ready to make the tough call in behalf of its clientele:

"The broker [Merrill Lynch] has upgraded forecast average gold prices from US$455/oz to US$485/oz in Q4 2005, from US$441/oz to US$525/oz in calendar 2006, from US$425/oz to US$500/oz in 2007 and from US$400/oz to US$475/oz in 2008. (Mind the gradual decline post 2006)."

I can see the Merrill Lynch follow-up report now:

"On December 9, 2005 gold hit the $530 mark. On that same day, Merrill Lynch analysts taking note of what was going on in the gold market, courageously predicted the price would UPGRADE to "$485/oz in Q4 2005" proving once and for all that Merrill Lynch's analytical team cannot make an error on the gold price no matter how hard they try."

Galearis@ MK re your 139052#13905712/10/05; 12:15:26

Well said!

And it may not be entirely a coincidence that there are perhaps some anomalous delivery events going on in the COMEX gold side too:

Gold had 284 contracts stand for delivery (28,400 oz) to bring December's total to 1,781,200 oz.

COMEX has about 3 Moz in the registered category in its stockpile.

Could it be that some entities are in the know about the direction for the USD starting in January 2006 – or some other looming derivative calamity?

For all the high spirits that are lately directed at the events going on with the POG (and POS), there is also a foundation of worry, a solid one underneath it all.
Gold, the canary of the monetary systems is telling us something important. But at least this canary can save ones bacon.

Canaries; get you some!

Best regards,


Cavan ManMK: Dizzards's OPINION#13905812/10/05; 12:41:50

Was NOT arrived at without more than a modicum of research and conversation with some who inhabit that one square mile of "London" towne. That one square mile is quiet and takes a back seat to Broad and Wall but....the oldest and largest amounts of (mercantile and plundered) money reside there. Excellent points--agree!!
ski@Galearis#13905912/10/05; 12:56:04

Thanks so much for your added insights. This "student" looks forward to your periodic updates.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.USAGOLD puts a world of gold at your fingertips...#13906012/10/05; 13:55:04">gold -- a global calling card
Topazalt Gold.#13906112/10/05; 17:03:20

They at Futuresource have found it necessary to re-jig the scalings on our LT alt-Gold Chart ...the point being that PoG and Currencies are now SO disjointed as to be virtually irrelevant to one Another.
Good timing too in that 'ol Buck AND Gold look set to explode to the high heavens with the deflationary tsunami brewing anew.

The Invisible HandKuwait has bearish view of oil#13906212/10/05; 17:21:29,,16849-1918546,00.html

Oil shares hit by Kuwait's £1bn BP sell-off
Some analysts dismissed the speculation that the move was inspired by a bearish view of oil, suggesting instead that BP's aggressive purchase of its own stock was forcing the Kuwaiti fund to trim its holding to maintain its weighting.

The Invisible HandOr has Kuwait?#13906312/10/05; 17:34:21

Earlier this week, Gordon Brown [Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, or Minister of Finance] unveiled plans to take more than £2bn a year from the oil industry by doubling the "windfall" tax on North Sea profits. BP is expected to see its tax bill increase by £400m.

R PowellBelgian#13906412/10/05; 17:50:38

When speaking of the distinctions between money and wealth you wrote............

"Gold is in the process of telling us that money is NOT wealth !!!"

Many still want to equate gold and money, or even restrict the monetary supply by the amount of gold backing it. I don't believe this is possible and I'll certainly agree that money is not wealth. Further, imho, gold is not money, although I once thought so and won a gold coin in a contest once wherein I stated, "simply put, gold is money".

I loosely define financial wealth as a possession that has a likelihood of being able to hold its monetary purchasing power over time. Paper money does not/ can not do this. Whether or not this is a flaw in the paper money is debateable. I don't believe it is as I don't think money must hold purchasing power over a long time period in order to fulfill a monetary function. I view money as a means of transaction over the time frame that most use when trading monies earned for food, rent, etc. That timeperiod for most is certainly less that one month, and, for many, weekly.

Certainly money can not depreciate in purchasing power as quickly as it did in the German meltdown in the early 1920s but paper money works just fine to complete most of mankind's normal transactions.

You also stated.....

"Holding a goldmetal unit (ounce or gram) and seeing to depreciate its exchange/barter value for tangibles is NOT the definition for gold-wealth. This corresponds with the depreciating purchasing power of fiat internally and externally.
Holding a goldmetal unit and see its purchasing power for tangibles remain the same over simply forgetting the loss of purchasing power that gold had to suffer during the past SEVEN DECADES !!!"

I believe I understand what you are saying but, if so, my thoughts immediately bring up a question. Gold is brokered the world over in both paper and physical form. If we accept your above thoughts, then how does one determine the monetary exchange value (may I state a sale price as such) at any ONE day. Physical metal is bought and sold in monetary units daily. If it is done so with a numerical monetary exchange ...paper for dollars...doesn't that transaction validify...if only for that transaction time...a monetary value for gold. Whether or not the buyer or seller got a "good" deal is NOT the question. The question is, how else can gold change hands except on a monetary basis (without reverting back to barter)...and while this system remains (as it has for centuries), whether the paper deflates in value or not, does not the transaction involving money imply a relationship between the two?

If at any second one ounce of gold equals one good man's suit (to use the old standby) both of which equal X dollars, And given that one ounce CAN be purchased at that time for X dollars, then is it unreasonable to say that, again at that point in time, that one ounce of gold is valued at X dollars?

Does not this relationship exist that there is a monetary value for physical gold? By the fact that physical is exchanged daily for this fluxuating, appreciating or depreciating price (not value but price), does not this prove (at least imply) that a monetary value exists every day.

Also, does not the transaction price imply any value (not price but value as validation) as to gold's monetary worth every day and did not this also occur every day during the past seven decades that you refered to. Maybe today, last year's price seems like a bargin. Maybe the POG will trade down and today's price will seem overvalued.....maybe the price in monetary terms is, by that definition, priced in a fluxuating, depreciating currency but it is so priced, no? Why then, was that price not valid? ....OR, might you agree with my thoughts and I have I misunderstood what your post was trying to state..?
happy weekend

R PowellGalearis#13906512/10/05; 18:01:29

We know that there is a relatively small amount of physical silver held in Comex storage, and that, of that, only about half is "for sale". Much of this changes ownership without leaving storage. If more (larger amount) is now doing so, I believe the fact is worthy of note but this should not be confused with Comex longs standing for delivery AND taking the physical metal out of storage (presumably for private possession or immediate use). Please keep a eye on that "total storage number" for us.

I had not thought of those wanting both physical possession + storage years ago when I called Comex stores "the silver of last resort". I was thinking of end-users needing physical. But, it is not surprising that some investors many have the foresight to buy + store in Comex. I would guess if they leave it there that they are inves tors looking for paper profits only but maybe this is how it begins, after all, the POS hasn't even reached $20.00 yet. (g)

FlatlinerCheerleading at its finest#13906612/10/05; 18:24:31

Stumbled upon this Thursday. I have many Gold fearing friends that tow the line delivered in this article. I have to admit that this guy sounds as crazy as … me. You be the judge. Below, I've included the opening paragraph and followed by some of the finer points.

"We're in the golden age of corporate America, and you simply must have your share of it. You must take advantage of the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Stocks are cheap and you should buy ‘em. Corporate profits have never been better, dividends never higher, balance sheets never cleaner, and as an added bonus, the corporate indiscretions of the bubble era have been totally purged from the system. CEO's now sign off on company's financial statements. The system is clean and neat and not only has corporate profit never been better, the prospects for the future has never been better either. The only way to benefit from the good fortune of the best-of-breed corporations is to own the stocks of these well run companies. The bear market is finally over and you should buy stocks. This economy is great!"

"With social security in trouble, you can't afford not to buy stocks now!"

"The US consumer has not failed us so far, and therefore he never will. The pessimists just don't get it."

I paragraph made me laugh a little.

"Those negative worrying pessimists are chirping about high energy prices again, but as usual they just don't get it. In the face of rising oil, corporate profit growth didn't take it on the chin yet. "This economy" has shown resilience time and time again. So by now, it is apparent that there is no relationship between energy prices and corporate profits. It's the productivity that these people don't understand. This is sustainable, and there is no reason why rising oil and gas should hurt corporate profits. And falling energy prices will boost corporate profits and even rally the market. And job growth will not be hurt either. In fact, I hear Kudlow suggesting that job growth will not be impacted either. That I like! There is no risk in this pretty picture and as a result, you should buy stocks now. Bou-ya, ski Daddy. Buy ‘em now!"

"Can it be clearer? The NYSE index is in a solid uptrend. It's time to buy!"


In a way, I believe Martin Goldberg might be seeing things, as they will be. Yet, I tend to disagree with his reasoning. "There is no risk" is never the case. "This economy is great!" is a relative observation that seems to be as skewed as - the sky is falling.

In an inflationary environment, prices go up. Sometimes, they can go up sharply. With ever-increasing amounts of money in circulation, people will chase stocks and houses with it. That, undoubtedly, will drive up prices. If the fed needs to print more money to make it happen, I'm sure they will. I'll even line up to get my share!

But, the real question is, will the value of these assets increase?

mikalGlobal media relents, money milemarkers given coverage#13906712/10/05; 19:43:34 U.S. Foreign Money Addiction Means Trouble - AP - 12/10/05
All this belated tallying of rat race results.

R PowellSki#13906812/10/05; 19:55:03

Nice to see that you are hear. I, for one, would greatly like to hear more of your views on silver, especially where this year's deficit might come from, assuming that new supply has not caught up with demand which I doubt has happened. But anything that you are now thinking of concerning silver would be appreciated.

Also, I posted in 139065 some thoughts. I did this before reading your 139043 post of yesterday. Basically, my post probably just restated your thoughts and I thought I should acknowledge this.

Currently I believe that the POS is heading and will continue to head higher. No one knows for how long or how high. Imho technical chart readings and indicators of all kinds will NOT be any more reliable now in silver than they were when silver moved from 401 to above 850. I'm hoping to get some insight into whether this current move is really demand driven or more speculative in nature ....always both but which is the stronger OR how strong is physical need? But, if you've no thoughts here, I'm always hungry for whatever a long time silver market watcher like yourself has to say.
happy weekend....

mikalXtreme economy headline highlights#13906912/10/05; 20:31:52

Fed walks fine line in changing policy statement - Reuters[Don't let the $ CAT out of the bag!]
Housing slowdown to cost finance, construction jobs - CNN/Money[Is that all?]
Bubble, Bubble -- Then Trouble - BusinessWeek[BW dares to profile some local yocals about some real estate 'issues']
Gold shines as alternative to leading currencies - FT["Maybe we should start using some of those serious, adult words now..."]
U.S. debt expands at fastest clip in 18 years - AFX[Debt = Growth! Go USA...and Europe and Japan and...]
Huntsman Sr. fears traders manipulating natural gas - DesertNews[Up or down?]
U.S. Foreign Money Addiction Means Trouble - AP[Get thee to a clinic, gamblers anonymous or gold]
Buyback Fever Still Raging -['Buyback fever'
Hedge fund worry grows - Houston Chronicle[Nothing another dose of derivatives can't cure ;)]
Housing softening in hot markets - BW['Softening' or evaporating?]
Should Hedge Funds Be Exempt From an Exemption? - NY Times Sellers chop asking prices as housing market slows - Boston Globe
Study: More housing markets called overvalued - USAToday Calif. home affordability holds near record low - Reuters[You mean it was worse?]
Intel forecast disappoints - N.Y. Post
Gamers outsourcing early rounds to China - NY Times
GMAC Auction Won't Be Simple - WSJ[Alas, just as we were getting pampered by "Reality TV"]
Merck Study on Vioxx Understated Risk, Journal Says - Bloomberg["Understated risk"? How about 'stated at a measured pace'?]
Mortgage Industry Job Losses May Rise With Interest Rates-
LA Times["May Rise?" Why stick your neck out?]
Satellite radio firms use low prices as lure - Arizona
Republic[Those dastardly hucksters and their alternative radio!]
Japan revises third-quarter GDP downward - FT['bout time they chill out ;)]
Iraq Set to Pump Less Oil Than Last Year - AP[Oil? What about standard of living?]
China's Trade Surplus Narrowed as Exports Cooled - Bloomberg[OOPS, exports to U.S. still GROW!]
Kuwait to pump 44 billion dollars into oil - AFP[Juicy equipment contracts for something obsolete in a few years?]

PRITCHOCheerleading at its finest -- - -- - (Financial Sense Article)#13907012/10/05; 21:08:48

Marin Goldgerg in the article refrred to was "taking the piss" or to put it another way was ridiculing the army of cheerleaders for the US Markets always going up.


PRITCHOGOLDBERG not Goldgerg ----#13907112/10/05; 21:10:39

Sorry Martin :)
GoldiloxSM in the "inflation illusion"#13907212/10/05; 22:52:31

I think it's very likely that we'll see the SM continue to plod along just above the "official" inflation, given no catastrophic impetus. That way, the brokers continue to siphon money by shuffling their clients from one "hot" sector to another, and the clients see LT gains 2-3 % above the official inflation rate, which in reality means they're being slowly expunged of their assets.

All the while, the working class will bear more and more of the invisible tax (inflation) burden of Benny the Blade's "Inflation Target."

GoldiloxCheerleaders#13907312/10/05; 22:56:28

Oh, and of course, the cheerleaders will pat themselves on the back as Bubble-Vision parades them in front of the anesthetized Boob-tube audience.

"See", they will say, "how resilient this economy is"!

Voyagertest#13907412/10/05; 23:23:56

ski@R. Powell .... silver#13907512/11/05; 00:03:20

Nice to see you carrying the silver torch here at the forum. At your request, I thought I'd throw out a few silver bones.

1. There is no question that we are seeing some highly unusual activity on the Comex. In my personal notes, I now have about 17 reasons why I think we are VERY close to the silver price explosion that Ted Butler has discussed so often. IMHO, this explosion will develop in a way that is the exact opposite of the Bank of England gold sale. In other words, under covers and as quietly as possible.... yet still detectable to the watchful eye. Presently, I look at the Comex activity as LABOR PAINS that are telegraphing the impending birth of the explosion.

2. The current PM writers are scrambling for all kind of reasons to explain why the markets are "acting so unusual" lately. I think there are two simple answers:

Up until 2005, we had a U.S. based bull market in silver and gold. (Some writers went as far to believe that the bull was just a local event and the result of the falling dollar.) But in this past year, the PM's have broken out in virtually ALL WORLD CURRENCIES. Silver is not a U.S. commodity .... IT IS A WORLD COMMODITY.... and it has now gotten the undivided attention of investors all over the world. THEY ARE NOW BUYING (as opposed to speculating). When the PM's broke out in all world currencies we turned the page on a brand new chapter in the PM book. This chapter brings with it different market action and a different "feel" than we have been accustom to over the past several years.

I normally use TECHNICAL ANLAYSIS (TA) as one of my investment tools. But TA does not work in a manipulated market. The inputs are fraudulent and therefore produce fraudulent charts and "readings". No one would think of using TA to predict bread prices in the former Soviet Union because the state moved the price anywhere they darn well pleased. It has been the same here. Today's PM writers are scratching their heads, trying to figure out why the PM's are NOT CONFORMING to the tried and true rules of TA. Until we can clearly say that PM's are finally moving on supply and demand fundamentals .... ignore all technical analysis! (We'll dust it off and use it near the end of the bull.)

3. There are many, many reasons why silver can be expected to outperform gold on a percentage basis. Yet, because there are so many reasons, investors get easily confused. So let's pick out only five easy words that say the very most. SILVER ... MORE RARE THAN GOLD! (Ted Butler has begun mentioning this more often in the past year.)

4. Before year end, institutions and fund managers will either have to acquire some form of PM's exposure or explain to their shareholders how they were so stupid to have missed the red-hot PM market that is all over the media.

....back to lurking

Belgian@Rich#13907612/11/05; 01:38:17

Of course, you are absolutely right that gold has been incorporated in our planet's money-system !
But, money is infinite and goldmetal isn't. If you need money, you can easely borrow it (easy money). Money cannot be defined as wealth. If you want "some" goldmetal, today, you can easely get it in exchange for easy money. Today, gold is still associated with easy money and that's why gold's wealth status has been taken away.
Up until here, you still have it 100% right.

I still do interprete the gold-actions during the past decade as the transition of gold's "status" from being money towards becoming "wealth".

We cannot go on inflating the global money stash infinitely, without having it absorpted into tangibles (wealth). If only a tiny fraction of the rapid growing money volume (TRILLIONS) should go for have instant price hyper inflation, globally.

Now, and increasingly so in the future, more and more money will be guided into goldmetal (metal-!!!) and goldmetal will gradually get its original wealth-status again.
That's why I simplified the meaning of wealth status with the example of one gold unit increasing in value, bicycle, car, house...castle.

Up until now, one is forced to participate activily in the financial industry as to break even on purchasing power for one's money stash. If not (succesfull) one's money wealth depreciates permanently. There is not enough goldmetal to reach the same result : Too much money grows too fast, for allowing a tiny fraction to consolidate in goldmetal and preserve one's money-fortunes from fast/faster depreciation.

Give goldmetal its wealth-status back...let it revaluate up unto the point a gold unit reaches its original exchange (barter) value...and you will see that the excess of the too much easy money has been absorpted and transformed into a universal exchangeble wealth tangible. This will force the existing money-system to change its old hyper-inflating policies.

We are on the very, very beginning of this process. That's why it still is so very confusing to all the observers, still trapped into the money fortunes theory and not yet connected on the gold-wealth status.

One can be, today, at the same time, be extremely fortunate (in money terms-paper) and be very wealth poor (without gold-metal wealth). This is going to sink in, gradually and steadily. Paper fortunes are going to "deliver" less and less, the tangible goldmetal wealth is going to be able "delivering" more and more.

This ongoing project explains fully what happened during the past 3 decades. We continue to watch it, in doubt or conviction, all together.

Belgianpart II#13907712/11/05; 02:24:32

During the past decade, a lot of different gold-theories have been presented to an extremely small fraction of the gold-public. This production of alternative gold-theories will most probably continue, as the visible goldprice evolves. But if gold is indeed in a transition to a change, there can be only one theory (future) that is the correct one.

I remain convinced that the goldprice will continue to rise.
And the same goldwatcher will continue to adapt their gold views to the rising goldprice levels...up until they start realising that there "must" be a fundamental change, going on with gold. Then all the previous theories/explanations will be forgotten, instantly and more of the general public will meet (be confronted with) gold.

Impossible to guess at what goldprice level this might happen.

Each decline in goldprice will, after the facts, also result in new explanations. Gold observers constantly run "behind" the goldprice with their interpretations of the goldprice-behavior and more so the goldprice "level".

The "old" gold has been extremely boring for the past 25 years. Then there "must" exist a high probability of "new" gold, measured on the great efforts produced by the remaining goldphiles.

The goldprice rise from $253 to $530 did NOT produce any dramatic (spectacular) event (cataclysm) ! How come ?

Answer : New gold has been (carefully) planned.

The Invisible HandThe most stupid questions ever#13907812/11/05; 03:15:38

Belgian said:
New gold has been (carefully) planned.

Who planned this? Why was the implementation of the plan delayed until now? Who has or had the power to proceed to this implementation or to start this implementation? Why now? Why me, rich (without P) now? I liked to be the underdog. Why are "they" doing this to me? Why they force me to tell "I told you so!" to those who laughed at me?

Belgian@TIH#13907912/11/05; 05:20:52

Thanks to the wwwweb, you can explore the entire planet. Search and find what the REAL story (stories) is all about, instead of easely fantasize one's own (convenient) story.
Destillate from all the available information how this planet is changing exactly. Focus on the evolving geopolitical changes in the field of oil/gas/electricity and other vital resources. The very fundamentals for wealth creation in those rapid developping parts of the globalizing world.

Do this research with bearing in mind the theories that you already have been hearing...reading in the usagold rich archives.

Read also other peoples' standpoints, differing from the usual anglo american views.

Making, presenting a good plan is no problem. It is the evolution to the implementation of the plan, that is a struggle. W're already beyond (passed) the riping process of the gold=wealth concept. Now w're starting the implementation of it. The non AA part of the globe is gradually moving away from the ephemeric $ paper fortunes towards the consistant wealth of tangibles. Go and eventually discover it for yourself.

Today, some goldobservers concluded (finally) that the recent goldprice rise has (seemingly) little to do with the general perception (!!!) of infla ! A mouse step forward.
Interests are not significantly rising (infla) but the goldprice is !? And if the goldprice is "supposed" to correct for dollar-inflation (helicopter thing)...why aren't the interests rates doing so ? Ohhhhh, yes...sorry,... forgot about the conondrum explanation.

The rest of the planet doesn't give a dingdong about conondrums. They want "wealth value" in exchange for what they DELIVER ! Check this out, TIH.

KnallgoldIran and the coincidences#13908012/11/05; 05:57:14

Ever thought this Iranian president is a planted agent from Mossad/CIA? I mean Iran wants to open an euro nominated oil bourse,and what is it that you get?Careful actions to not endanger its implementation?No,at the right time a so called extreme islamist populist gets elected'speaks out at the most appropriate time politically the worst things I can think of (Israel has to be deleted and even goes on to deny the holocaust)?Of course the whole AA media takes the story on the frontlines,and the others just had to follow.

On Ahmadinedjads election there were rumuours that he was recognized by victims as a kidnapper-is there a better way to subcutaneously plant an islamist curriculum vitae?

What will happen?Iran will be isolated,econmic sanctions, trading with the enemy a no go et voila,the oil bourse is a stillbirth!If it won't work,expect some hard action by Israel.

contrarianKnallgold--Iranian President#13908112/11/05; 06:26:54

Concept of Iranian president as a planted agent of the CIA/Mossad is a stretch even for me. That's assuming governmental competence, which is definitely a stretch of the imagination.

Certainly the former Shah of Iran was an overt puppet planted by the US, but I would find it hard to believe that the CIA could so have its S--- together as to be able to put together a believable scenario as you describe. This rather, sounds like a conspiracy in search of a solution.

Knallgold@contrarian#13908212/11/05; 06:38:19

Of course the more probable scenario is that he acts very naive and incompetent with his back on the wall due to innerpolitical pressure.
CaradocGovt equivalent of Enron scandal#13908312/11/05; 06:45:43

The content of the story linked above could make being a US taxpayer feel like being an Enron stockholder. It may be difficult to get past the chatty weblog style and the snide attitude, but he has the story nailed down and documented.

Here's a snip:

***text follows***

Here's how it worked:

Money budgeted for U.S. Defense went in at the ADCS end of something called the "Wilkes Corporation" for services which the Pentagon protested it never requested, and out the other end came a magical cornucopia of bribes, kick-backs, campaign contributions, yachts, Lear jets and Rolls Royce's.

Over the course of almost an entire decade, from 1994 to 2001, Cunningham's Appropriations Committee repeatedly added funding to the Pentagon budget for a previously non-existent (prior to 1995) software company, ADCS, owned by the "Wilkes Corporation," a private company (natch) owned by San Diego businessman Brent Wilkes.

The money then made a short trip--courtesy the wonders of modern accounting--from one of Brent Wilkes' pants pocket to another, called "Group W Advisors," which proceeded to obligingly send hundreds of thousands of dollars in `client fees' annually to The Alexander Strategy Group, a lobbying and consulting firm currently under scrutiny in the Justice Department's investigation of Casino Jack Abramoff.

***end of text***


HenriHmmmm#13908412/11/05; 07:29:17

With all the fineagling to maintain the illusion for the US consumers/investors/debtors that there is no elephant in the room, despite the fact that many of their fellows have donned hip waders to keep the increasingly deep doo from getting on them and have been wearing clothespins on their noses puportedly as a fashion statement, I ask the following question of the forum.

Has the stage been set for something completely incredible, such as a simultaneous inflation/deflation event?

OK, granted that is already happening ergo we see high prices for so called "luxury items" like cars and gas to make them go as well as houses and the fuel to keep them warm, but low prices for things such as common food items (except meat)and dare I mention risk (reflected in the low premiums we need to pay to borrow for the future)?

I am talking about a currency rout. A collapse of a particular currency built upon the shifting sands as a house of cards withstanding hurricane force winds (thanks to judicious application of greenspan "superglue") but then falling victim to the collapse of the very firmament upon which it has come to stand, sovereign debt.

HenriFor example#13908512/11/05; 07:34:01

Rothchild's bank left such a room when the stench became unbearable. The others remain though the tidal mass of fecundity has advanced to their armpits thereby rendering their hipwaders useless. Yet they remain and will not escape the room unsoiled yet they remain and continue to acknowlege the existance of the elephant despite the fact that it consumes even their lunches in its obstinate presence.
HenriOops#13908612/11/05; 07:39:02

I meant ...continue to refuse to acknowlege the elephant...

apologies for the redundant "and yet" as well

David LinkleyGold drivers#13908712/11/05; 09:16:40

Most of the time I would be inclined to think a consolidation was due for gold and gold stocks after this current run up but so many mainstream pundits are calling for a top we may have a ways to go. Charles DeVox an outstanding value manager for First Eagle Funds is quoted in this week's Barron's as saying "gold stocks are pricey". The mainstream money managers are still not focused on proven reserves, only earnings and cash flow at these prices or lower.

For the first time I can remember in years the commercials have covered Comex gold short positions (5276) last week as gold was rising. Open interest is also falling. This historically is bullish. Deliveries from Comex in both gold and silver has also been picking up over the past several weeks.

The HUI (Gold Bugs Index) also broke out to all time highs signaling that money is flowing in once again.

Something is causing smoke out there take your pick, Refco, Iran with the bomb, oil, underfunded pension funds, GM, Ford, Fannie Mae, real estate, etc. Don't be one of those who reacts to the news, be proactive, prepare now.

Galearis@ Rich and Ski re silver AND deliveries#13908812/11/05; 09:35:30

Whenever anyone holds a conceptual position on any subject, context is everything. I have also been a student in these markets for many years myself, and still consider myself as one. In fact most of the investors not on the Charles Savoie list of "baddies" are probably also students,,,,and THOSE folks likely make up a good percentage of commercial shorts that have been doing the dirty to this market for twenty odd years (and more). The faces change; the actions don't ,,,much. It has always seemed to me that this market has a huge share of fools in it! Did these folks ever study the underlying fundamentals while they were going short so deeply? Probably not for years. Do more of these folks know more of the fundamentals now? Well, we do have anomalous deliveries in silver going on now,…

As I said context is everything in a discussion. Note: "We know that there is a relatively small amount of physical silver held in Comex storage, and of that, only about half is "for sale". That would be the registered metal, some 66 Moz worth. The eligible (eligible for what?) is ostensibly storage by whoever,,,to perhaps be sold sometime in the future…But the context I was talking about is that the registered metal total tonnage equates rather well to the amount remaining in India's central bank vaults too. Add to this what paltry amount China (supposedly, maybe) does still has,,,and that's pretty much all one can write on supplies on the planet – that is silver "in ready to go useable form". So, of course, at some point the insiders are going to get worried about who gets to own this stuff. (Maybe they are reading Ted Butler or Midas, some of them.) Some of these folks will be spec longs and some will be those already short and trapped by their own avarice and complacency therein. Will the US cabal forces be able to convince India to cough up the metal? Dunno. Maybe the insider shorts know that this metal is held in stronger hands than those holding in China; the Indian government is supposedly not into leasing.

But it would be unwise to second-guess the wisdom behind those initiating any events in this market. Would wisdom see the paper short position of commercials up there reaching around 250 Moz – and the lease overhand upwards of one billion ounces – with China giving signs that it wants its silver back? Sure some of these will be able to cash out. But some won't, and there is guaranteed a severe financial pain here for all when the establishment defaults on one billion ounces of borrowed silver!!!!. And silver will have to go up in price in order to reach an equitable state of supply from all sources – especially during a period whereby currencies are going to be "held" in suspicion (– dare we say held by "weak hands" ?) Will we smell paper buring? Yep, because those that hold the metal (regardless of colour) are going to be dictating.. That is when there really isn't any silver anywhere to be finessed out of the woodwork in any fashion save a hike,,,,and a big inflation hike,,,,in price!

So I can quietly say (just like the market is now doing) that the market participation that seems to go along with these deliveries, and the deliveries seem to support the argument for a run on the COMEX metal. But we also know that it is going nowhere very fast either. Right now, only 7.5 Moz per month (subject to change by the management) is allowed to leave the vaults. It would take over 6 months to clean out the registered stockpiles and to be sure the management would move to curtail this. And curtailment will likely dampen spot price. And management has lots more tricks to quiet unruliness in silver, yes? But this only lengthens the timeline for a "healthy" futures market in silver, the piper is going to be sounding shrill about his needs!

So we have a long way to go,,,(only) months, I think,,,, before a significant number of potential investors start seeing silver as a good investment. Gold too is just starting to get mentioned and we have years of projected gains ahead for the yellow. Silver, as explosive as it can be, will still react, relatively speaking very slowly to our watchful (knowing) eyes,,,,,Simply because we probably are more aware than those who we depend on to make these markets fly. Until someone somewhere fails to make good on some obligation.

But I think we will still see the results as relatively exciting. Yes, I think so.

All an exercise in speculation this and a big IMHO,,,and a FWIW too.

And yes, I'll be watching.

Best regards,


GalearisBuying gold on the spot market may not be what you think!#13908912/11/05; 10:23:36

Maybe one of the more important articles to read about buying gold. Or why to purchase gold to hold from people like our good hosts here at USAGOLD.

This explains why WE had so much trouble with our broker and later the bullion bank where we took delivery. We bought on the spot market, but found ourselves part of the broker's pool account. It was a WAR with that management to get our metal- to actually take delivery. It spilled over into the bullion bank where those folks were mighty unpleasant around seeing OUR metal move out of there vaults.

This article explains this in some detail!

This article infers that the spot market may be as much as sham as the paper market. Think LONG about what you read here.

Our experience indicates that MOST people do not actually take delivery of metal bought on the spot market.

Always take delivery of what you purchase. And this article explains why.



Liberty HeadThe Daddy of All Gold Drivers#13909012/11/05; 10:50:39

As long as there is unrestrained gov't spending, the POG will continue to rise. There are no other investments that are as certain as the precious metals, for gov't fiscal restraint will never happen.

Best Wishes

geRussian paper encourages people to buy gold coins#13909112/11/05; 11:24:25

Very interesting article. The flavor of the article resembles Belgian's writings. The paper says that Ruble is a Dollar derivative and Russian people should buy gold coins with their savings. He suggests that there are VAT exempt Russian coins to buy.
R PowellSki#13909212/11/05; 11:26:19

Thanks for the response. Your thoughts and mine are almost identical, especially as to the coming impotence of technical analysis in silver. TA normally works best in a gradually trending market, either up or down or even sideways, within certain lines of support and/or resistence. Likewise I have seen silver make huge gains even after technicians have declared her as severely "overbought".

Butler has indeed been talking for years of the fact that there is more gold available than silver. He refers, I believe, to aboveground supply. I'll add that this should probably also include only silver in acceptable industrial delivery form. Obviously if all the world's jewelry, silverware, etc. were collected and melted down into bullion, then there would be more silver. This is not likely to happen, I will guess, until silver prices explode.
Also, a great amount of this was done in 1979-80, thus removing an amount of supply. Is it safe to say that coins and jewelry silver are not available for melt until the POS passes those old price highs? I don't know.

And yes, all commodities are now global markets, silver included. The deficit for year 2004 was filled, according to the Silver Survey, by Chinese exports. These may have been government stores dishoarded or just newly mined production exported as less was needed for domestic film making. This is not clear, but not necessary for my question....where does one guess that extra silver will come from to cover 2005's deficit? I do not guess that demand will abate.
happy weekend

OvSGalearis#13909312/11/05; 11:42:02

The crazy thing about buying
unallocated gold is:
l. You become a lender of
Fiat money to the bank.
2. The bank buys gold or
papergold that counts
toward its miminum li-
quidity requirements &
the bank is the legal
owner of that gold.
3. If you demand delivery
a. They try and stall
your effort.
b. If the bank is sound,
you eventually will
get your gold
c. If the bank is fail-
ing, your chances are
pretty slim. Regular
accounts can at least
hope for FDIC funds.
Unallocated gold accts
have no such protection.
It's a rough world out there.
Alaska looks better and safer
every day. But then, maybe the
Russians are going to buy it
back from us when things really
start to deteriorate...?:-) OvS

R PowellBelgian#13909412/11/05; 11:49:46

Thanks for the reply (139076)

My pragmatic thought process has me summarizing your words into ....the future POG will rise faster than inflation (inflation meaning the increase in cost for goods and services). Is this a fair summary?

If so, I agree 100%. But I still don't attribute this to anything more complicated than a change in the balance of supply + demand....a change showing much more demand...result = high POG. The multitude of causes behind this change as not simple or easily seen but the concept itself is...simple supply and demand. I guess I still do not understand "freegold" as gold somehow disconnected from a monetary exchange number. Oh well...thanks for trying...

The monetary connection remains in that the POG will still contain the P and the P is a monetary number. In hindsight, all past POG numbers were valid transaction numbers as metal did trade at those prices. Bargin prices? Probably, unless you bought in 1980, but still valid exchanges....
happy weekend

R PowellBelgian#13909512/11/05; 12:02:55

In post 139077 you stated....

"The goldprice rise from $253 to $530 did NOT produce any dramatic (spectacular) event (cataclysm) ! How come ?

Answer : New gold has been (carefully) planned."

The more I try to fathom your thoughts, the more I'm beginning to think we agree but our presentations of our thoughts do not always seem to coincide...?

I'll agree again with all except the implication that gold's price is carefully if some powerful force, whether government sponsored or some financial entity has been at work with a grand, lng term scheme. POG has disconnected from currency exchanges, without much fanfare at all. Was there ever any connection other than trading positions initiated + offset by currency traders? Why must this be any more complicated than global supply and demand, with an evolving sentiment change among investors (both for paper gains and physical possession) who now want more gold..?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Assets and info to help get you started!#13909612/11/05; 12:47:32">gold ownership starter kit
Liberty HeadThe Bernanke Fallacy#13909712/11/05; 12:48:06

For one to beleive Bernanke can limit inflation to 2%, one must assume gov't spending can also be limited. A fool's assumption to be certain. However, foolishness is as unbounded as gov't spending.
Real inflation will go much higher and the exponential growth of gov't will continue but few will connect the dots.

"So this is how liberty dies, to thunderous applause." Padme' remarks at the Senate in Revenge of the Sith.

Best Wishes

MKLiberty Head#13909812/11/05; 13:29:04

You miss an important distinction in attempting to understand Bernanke's inflation targeting. It's not that he wishes to limit inflation to 2%; it's that he doesn't wish it to drop below 2% -- an important differentiation in understanding the new Fed chairman's thinking. If you review his speeches, academic papers etc., deflation is the hobgoblin which inhabits his mind.
VoyagerIt would seem that paper money has been flawed since its invention.#13909912/11/05; 13:50:36

When Marco Polo visited the China of Kublai Khan (1216-1295), he did note with astonishment how Kublai Khan by a kind of "alchemy" had made printed paper, in place of precious metals, serve as currency.

"Of this money the Khan has such a quantity made that with it he could by all the treasure of the world. With this currency he orders all payments to be made throughout every province and kingdom and region of his empire. And no one dares refuse it on pain of losing his life. And I assure you that all the peoples and populations who are subject to his rule are perfectly willing to accept these papers in payment, since wherever they go they pay in the same currency, whether for goods or for pearls or precious stones or gold or silver. With these pieces of paper they can buy anything and pay for anything. And I can tell you that the papers that reckon as ten bezants do not weight as one…
Here is another fact well worth relating. When these papers have been so long in circulation that they are growing torn and frayed, they are brought to the mint and changed for new and fresh ones at a discount of 3 per cent. And there again is an admirable practice that well deserves mention in our book: if a man wants to buy gold or silver to make his service of plate or his belts or other finery, he goes to the Khan's mint with some of these papers and gives them in payment for the gold and silver which he buys from the mint-master. And all the Khan's armies are paid with this sort of money."

What Marco Polo described as an old Chinese institution. By the eleventh century, shortages of metal and the need for more currency had produced a government-supervised system for issuing printed sheets of paper currency, four million a single year. In the twelfth century the Sung Chinese financed their defense against the Tartars by printing paper currency, and after their defeat they continued to print money for tribute. In 1209 the notes promising to pay off in gold or silver were printed on paper made of silk and pleasantly perfumed, but even their fragrance could not stabilize the currency or stop a runaway inflation.

The Sung historian Ma Tuan-lin, who lived through the worst of this inflation, chronicled the familiar consequences;

"After having for years tried to support and maintain these notes, the people had no longer any confidence in them, and were positively afraid of them. For the payment for government purchases was made in paper. The fund of the salt manufactories consisted of paper. The salaries of all the officials were paid in paper. The soldiers received their pay in paper. Of the provinces and districts, already in arrear, there was not one that did not discharge its debts in paper. Copper money, which was seldom seen, was considered a treasure. The capital collected together in former days was…a thing not even spoken of any more. So it was natural that the price of commodities rose, while the value of the paper money fell more and more. This caused the people, already disheartened, to lose all energy. The solders were continually anxious lest they should not get enough to eat, and the inferior officials in all parts of the empire raised complaints that they had not even enough to procure the common necessities. All this was the result of the depreciation of the paper money."

Following the example of the more advanced people they had conquered, the Tartars began issuing their own paper currency, and after 1260, when Kublai Khan completed his conquest of China, he made it the regular institution reported by Marco Polo. In Marco Polo's day the notes were still passing at full face value, but in the last years of the Mongols’ Yuan dynasty (1260-1368), floods of paper money once again signaled inflation. When the first emperor of the new Ming dynasty (1368-1644) took over, he cut back the paper money in circulation, and finally succeeded in stabilizing the currency.

From its beginnings in China, printing bore this guilty association with unsound currency. For centuries printed paper money appeared to be the only form of printing known to European travelers. A paper-money debacle closer to the West added to the ill-repute of printing. In Tabriz, capital of Mongol-conquered Persia, both Venice and Genoa kept commercial agents during the early years of the fourteenth century. The extravagance of the Mongol ruler Gaikhatu Khan from 1291 to 1295 put pressure on his treasury, which he tried to relieve by issuing paper currency. Block-printed in 1294 in Chinese and Arabic, each of his notes bore the date of the Muslim era, a warning to forgers, and the cheerful prediction that now "poverty will vanish, provisions become cheap, and rich and poor be equal." But the magic did not work. After only a few days of compulsory use of the paper, commerce was disrupted, markets closed, and the Khan's financial officer was reported murdered. All this the Venetians and the Genoese trading with Tabriz could not have failed to observe, and it could hardly have encouraged them to take up printing to solve their fiscal problems.

Others besides Marco Polo, including William of Rubruck, Odoric, and Pegolotti, had noted with admiration how the Great Khan made the bark of trees do the work of precious metals. But this alone seemed not a sufficient inducement to introduce printing in the West. And Westerners had not yet become scholars of the Eastern religions, which could have impressed them with the use of printing for sacred literature. In Europe, though there are records of leather money in the twelfth and thirteenth centuries, no record of paper money appears until an issue in Sweden in 1648.

From the book, The Discoverers, by Daniel J. Boorstin.

Liberty Head@MK#13910012/11/05; 14:01:53

Thank you for the clarification.

Certainly one of us has things upsidedown.

Lionel Ritchie has a song "Walking on the Ceiling" where everyone loses control and can't keep their feet on the ground when the music is right. I think that would make an excellent theme song for Bernanke.

Best Wishes

mikalDroke likes gold technicals#13910112/11/05; 14:29:35

Gold: Whatever happened to the Trend is Your Friend? - Cliff Droke - Snippit: "The rising gold price trend is not necessarily a response to inflation pressures, or fear of impending economic collapse, or demand by the new-found prosperity of Asian countries. Gold's price is rising for no other reason than that the manipulators in control of the gold market want it to be so, and for reasons (assuming there are any) that we'll probably never know. In much the same way that a Beanie Baby bubble was created in the late '90s, along with an Internet stock craze, the gold price is behind pushed higher by those in control of the market. And in some cases for no other reason than that "they can.""

Droke makes an interesting case that throughout history, the thousands of fundamentals impacting a commodity are less important than the direction determined by market movers, shakers and players as shown by trend analysis.
In gold's case this is important though by no means is gold a mere commodity.

Galearis@OVS#13910212/11/05; 14:38:15

The bullion bank discussed coughed up the metal but had lots of words to say to the broker. Apparently the broker had an understanding with the b.b. that spot market purchases of (any) metal would be in that broker's pool account and stored across the street in the bullion bank. The broker, who was livid (and vilely impolite) tried to stick us with his add on bar charges that were not part of the deal. His statements about "nobody takes actual delivery" we found to be rather unbelievable. But now, I wonder,...

If most do not take delivery, and there are endless red tape and little fee add-ons to encourage speculators to leave the actual metal in someone elses storage vault, then all the advantages of ownership lie with the bank and all the liabilities of risk - of mishap on the b.b.s are shouldered by the unallocated owner. It isn't even the latter's clear asset! (The same goes for fiat accounts, of course.)

As you say, the unallocated owner has in effect loaned back the metal - which can then be used by the bank in theory to enter into ventures that could put it at risk. I presume the auditors would not allow this gold to, for example, back some of the fractional reserve backing issues of gold or silver certificates? Hopefully not?

But that is a buyer beware thing. The real point is that this metal isn't really taken out of supply! It is likely still in play and supportive of the paper market, or held in limbo in case the b.b. gets into trouble.



R PowellCliff Droke's article // Questions for Mr. Droke..#13910312/11/05; 15:08:02

Is, imho and fwiw, complete hogwash.

Droke has been among the cheerleaders of the gold is completely manipulated crowd for as long as he's been writing gold articles (or as long as I've been reading them...8 years or so). He has opined that there is a "cabal" whose sole purpose is to drive down the POG. When the POG finally started up (proving him wrong about this mystical omnipotent controling entity) he opined that the cabal's purpose was to control the POG to very small upside moves. Now he writes....

"Gold's price is rising for no other reason than that the manipulators in control of the gold market want it to be so, and for reasons (assuming there are any) that we'll probably never know. In much the same way that a Beanie Baby bubble was created in the late '90s, along with an Internet stock craze, the gold price is behind pushed higher by those in control of the market. And in some cases for no other reason than that "they can.""

Mr Droke: Now for years you told us that the cabal's or manipulaters sole purpose, sole reason for existence, if you will, was to hammer down the POG. Yet now, out of the clear want to tell us that there is NO reason for the rise in POG other "than that the manipulators in control of the gold market want it to be so." This begs the cry of "why?". After so many years of nothing but a steady diet of crying about manipulation to keep the POG down, you now say that these same manipulators want the POG to go UP???? For the love of ......tell us why?

Oh yes, I see now, you have stated, "for reasons that we'll probably never know." How convenient. Okay, with absolutely no reasons for this new theory that manipulators are supporting the POG, how in blazes did you come to this conclusion..??? Or have you decided upon this theory based on facts, information and logical deductions that we'll never know?

And why do you believe these manipulators are now driving the POG higher? You would have us believe there exists now and has existed a grand conspiracy dedicated toward manipulating the POG lower...and now higher!..."for no other reason than that they can."?

I'm sorry guys, and I know that many here believe in the grandest of gold surpression conspiracies, but this just doesn't fly's not even logically presented well enough to be classified as claptrap. It's more like lunacy.
Again, fwiw and imho.
happy weekend

Belgian@Rich#13910412/11/05; 15:12:34

POG : For the past 7 dekades that -P- stood indeed for "price". First a few different fixed prices (pré '71)...then 3 decades of semi fixed (managed) prices ...and when -P- evolves to "priceless", meaning wealth, you will review your present (and past) "market"-theories of offer and demand. There was much less "market" than you could ever suspect, Rich.

Gold, first has to revalue up until it has recouped the fiat inflations of the past 7 decades. And "THIS" process is indeed going to happen with a "REAL" gold market. A market where the physical trade of the goldmetal and its paper trade will go completely in reverse of what happened in the past 25 years. 100 physical trade against 1 paper trade. This 180° reversal (in progress) is going to change the percepted picture and nature of the offer-demand dynamics.

When you cross our planet and visit (study) the many different markets (their dynamics), you will see that the fundamental differences can be enormous with the market you think you know. The very nature(s) of offer and demand can "change" and become unrecognisable.

No more boring (irritating) theories/argumentations anymore...the evolving gold revaluation will tell you. And it is not only the gold market that is about to change...change Big, Rich...very Big.

The NEW gold market is going to tell us what the REAL gold-worth is. And its final price will be one of a kind that you will not recognise, immediately. Gold will at the end of its revaluation process, represent the total ***-NET-*** WEALTH of the planet. Sounds dramatic, hé.

This planet is gradually moving into a system where one will have to pay value with same worth value and only get exactly what one is worth. Sounds over idealistic, hé.

NO, we will never reach the goal of a perfect harmonious planet...NEVER ! But the focus on this goal is living more strongly by the day. The power balances (of the very fundamentals) are changing !!! It is about global energy and monetary affairs. Think "imbalances". Then think about your perceptions on "markets" - offer and demand...and think "global".

There are so many things that are in principle "priceless".
And in practice we finally do have to stick "a price" on it.
But this price of priceless things are going to reflect the "wealth"-status of those very valuables.

And the fact that nobody even tries to get us back to a "$-gold-standard", is evidence that something much different has been planned for gold. A gold-standard would mean that w're going to stick yet another price to the 155,000 tonnes of aboveground gold...and adjust that price occasionally/arbitrarely at monetary convinience, as happened in the period 3 decades ago.

Your conviction that today, gold is free, will fade away when gold evolves towards another gold market regime where offer and demand are oriented towards PHYSICAL gold, first.
Powerful market forces can alter the nature of existing markets and let them morphe into markets with a complete different nature. Plenty of examples for this. And today it is about THE OLD AND THE NEW MARKET FORCES ! Think about this when interpreting the facts.

R PowellLiving in the 21st century#13910512/11/05; 15:48:46

Cliff Droke also makes a point of explaining, as mikal has pointed out, that only the price direction or trend matters. Any and all fundamentals have no importance or value. And one reason given (are there more?) for this belief is that there many be more information, economic forces in play, etc. than one person can know or possibly stay abreast with. Know I see, there is too much to study or know or try to understand so therefore searching for knowledge is a waste of time. Of course, how simple...ignorance is bliss. Now then, I'm going to have a lot of free time on my hands, now that I've seen the light. I wonder if it will be hard to avoid learning anything.

Droke simplifies right down to price only, determine the trend..prices up or down...and attribute this trend to manipulators ONLY because any/all other reasons are impossible to fully understand ...and should not try to learn. Markets are price trends only. Do you suppose there is any physical difference between gold and soybean oil? What's petroleum used for? Is there enough? Doesn't matter at all.

Sounds like the assistant principal who told me that my daugther....leaving eigth grade and entering high school...would never again have any grammatical or spelling errors on any papers written....because the computer would correct everything.. I asked if he was telling me that the grammer and spelling that she had not yet learned...she would never learn? He quietly explained that she was living in the 21st century. I quietly resigned myself to the fact that the high school taught no grammer or spelling. I wonder to this day why they bother with math. She has since graduated. She's doing fine and is the manager of a retail store. She knows how to run a computer but can not add, subtract, multiply, divide, spell, write correctly, spell correctly, etc. without that computer. She can determine the trend and knows that all market moves come ONLY from manipulators. There are NO fundamentals!! Smart girl!

R PowellBelgian#13910612/11/05; 16:09:12

Just read 139104, thanks. I received a distinct sense of forebodence and conviction from it. I will say that I do believe that you have little or no doubt as to your predictions. Your words seemed to contain a sense of warning as if you held the convictions of a Moses speaking out against the evils of idolatry.

Maybe I shouldn't have watched the Two Towers again last night. (g)
You said..

"And the fact that nobody even tries to get us back to a "$-gold-standard", is evidence that something much different has been planned for gold."

When you say "planned", do you imply in a cosmic sense or in a sense that it will be the logical outcome of forces in play OR do you mean "planned" as in agreed upon by a group of people? Perhaps some examples: If one believes in evolution, then the present physical state of mankind may have been "planned" in the cosmic sense, long, long ago. The Normandy invasion during 1944 in WW2 was "planned" by the Allies (men). How did you use this word in your quote. I do not mean to be picky...this will greatly help me understand, thanks.

R PowellBelgian#13910712/11/05; 16:17:38

From the same post....

"The NEW gold market is going to tell us what the REAL gold-worth is. And its final price will be one of a kind that you will not recognise, immediately. Gold will at the end of its revaluation process, represent the total ***-NET-*** WEALTH of the planet. Sounds dramatic, hé."

Yes, indeed, it does. I should imagine that business would still be transacted in currency, or will the total world gold supply representing total net world wealth somehow delete the need or use of money?

OvSThe NEW R. Powell?#13910812/11/05; 16:55:23

Metaphysician. Not bad.
Not bad at all. Perhaps
you can use the new cos-
mic interpretation for
a concrete foundation to
New Gold--The Eternal Re-
currence Materialized.

After "Gold" reaches its
Ancient Gold Wealth Status,
perhaps this forum will al-
ready be well ahead into
metaphysical and cosmologi-
cal derivative musings...?

After re-reading above, may-
be cb2 has a point in saying
that I'm pretentious? hmh OvS

The Invisible HandSwim you fools!#13910912/11/05; 17:50:05

Another Belgian conundrum.
Here's Frank van Dun with his "Social Security Conundrum in Belgium - The Pact Between the Generations"
Nobody likes to discuss the "subsidised longevity" aspect of the present Social Security conundrum, because nobody wants to be accused of denying anybody a long life. However, in an environment where "the right to live at the expense of others" is taken for granted, how long people will be compelled to pay for that "right" is a political question. The legalisation, just a few years ago, of medically assisted euthanasia, subject to approval by a committee of experts, merely confirms the premise of the current system, namely that a person's life for all practical purposes ultimately belongs to the state. Whatever the emotional connotations of healthcare for the elderly, it cannot be denied that it weighs on the problem for intergenerational economic security.
Only two or three generations ago Social Security was sold to the voters on the promise that it would save them from financial misfortune, especially in old age. Now their children and grandchildren are told that they will have to make sacrifices to save Social Security from financial ruin. "Swim, you fools! You wouldn't want that life belt to sink, would you?" It would be farcical if it weren't so tragic.
Got gold?

The Invisible HandOff topic - Metaphysics #13911012/11/05; 18:03:32

Metaphysics is for Aristotle the most noble of the speculative sciences,

Aristotle did not use the term metaphysics
but he spoke of primary philosophy to distinguish this science from the secondary philosophies or the particular sciences.

Object of metaphysics = realities that lie beyond the ken of our senses
in other words,
immaterial realities or at least realities which cannot be perceived by the senses,
but only understood by the intellect
and which, in themselves, depend in no way on sensible things for their existence

Aristotle - four definitions
1.studies first causes and ultimate principles of reality
2.studies being as such
3.studies the nature of substance
4.studies God

According to John Searle, the Western Tradition holds among its six tenets that reality exists independently of our representations and that meaning and communication make reference to language-independent objects and states of affairs.
Following St. Thomas, the act of being, not the act of speaking, is the root of the truth of things
Realistic metaphysics is therefore not a mere verbal game, but arises in its origin simply out of a natural desire to understand the world or the historical situation

Then came Immanuel Kant whose controlling principle is, says Dr. Mortimer Adler, the limitation of the mind. As opposed to dogmatism, the presumption that the human intellect can arrive at the most important truths by pure thinking, without being aware of its own limitations, Kant argued for criticism, a critical survey and assessment of the mind's resources and powers (Mortimer Adler and Charles Van Doren, "How to Read a Book", Touchstone (Simon & Schuster), 1972, p. 287)

Then came Ludwig Wittgenstein who argued that whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must be silent and for whom the limits of language mean the limits of my world

Positivism then came to defend a "logic without metaphysics" or a purely self-sufficient analysis of language. The definition of truth then became tied up in insoluble difficulties.

Metaphysical problems are then pseudo-problems which have their origin in linguistic confusion and error.

SmeagolGold price drivers/vectors#13911112/11/05; 18:23:57

(Smeagol mode off)

Just some observations/thoughts running around in my head as I watch the various ongoing discussions. Consider them only as a snack, not necessarily food, for thought ;-)

I think what we are currently seeing is a "not-free" gold market where the price point is acted on by several distinct vectors - indicators of direction and magnitude of forces
tending to move the price point in a particular direction:

1. The general public's PERCEPTION of a free market price on its face - that is, as a valuable commodity - what "one in the street" thinks gold is worth. These are people who
generally pay little if any attention to the fundamentals, nor to the other vectors, but tend to jump on or off the bandwagon when the velocity of the price in either direction
reaches a certain point.

2. The desires of those in a position to manipulate - that which certain players, associations and market regulators would "like" to see. In this group are those who have large financial stakes in the gold market - banks, miners, stockholders, traders, funds, etc. These people generally have a better understanding of at least some of the other

3. The price the "dollar-faction" wishes to see. In this group we find dollar-oriented political wills, corporations, central banks and "money powers". These people know what is
really going on, but they are few, and their actions are not widely known.

4. The price the "non-dollar faction" wishes to see. In this group we find non-dollar oriented political wills, corporations and central banks - "money powers". These people also know what is really going on, and like those of vector three, work mostly behind the scenes.

5. Big ticket/"rogue" investors (Hunts, Soros, Buffet, some funds, etc.).

6. Demand for physical supplies of gold metal.

Think of these vectors as acting on the price of gold in a direction which benefits the interests of the parties in question.

The first vector contributes VOLATILITY/INSTABILITY to the price in either direction, since there are a great number of people that can contribute to it.

The second vector acts more or less toward a (slowly shifting?) point of STABILITY, no matter where the price is.

The third vector acts in opposition to the fourth, pulling the price away from a relatively STABLE POINT that seeks to reflect gold's true, unhindered worth in any particular currency. Currently, often aligns with the second vector.

The fourth vector generally opposes the third, with a steady, controlled pull OVER TIME on the price, compensating in either direction in the short term, toward a STABLE price point that reflects gold's true, unhindered worth in any particular currency.

The fifth vector is an intermittent CHAOTIC one that can temporarily affect the price significantly in either direction.

The last vector can be considered as one resulting from the influence of all the other vectors, the force of a SPRING being stretched or compressed accordingly, and one which can act to sensitize/desensitize-increase/decrease the magnitude of the others.

The sum of these vectors, certainly including some I may have overlooked in simplification/error, gives the current market price which reflects our current situation.

What I see as the IDEAL end-point of the evolution of "freegold", if we ever get there, is one in which the magnitude of vector six is low but stable, and 1,2,3 and 4 are minimal as a result of a very predictable price point being reached at that time, by which the price of any currency (and by proxy all other things) is determined by gold, not the other way around.


Great discussions today, thank you all.

GoldendomeShort term top in the Gold market?#13911212/11/05; 18:37:00

On his internet radio program this week, longtime gold advocate, James Puplava, along with Frank Barbera, called a short term top in the gold market; and while not advocating the sale of physical gold, did suggest the sale of appreciated mining shares with the thought to buy them back on the downside.

Barbera suggested that gold might fall back to the $470 level, and if below that, could fall back to $420. Barbera said that the great majority of his technical indicators had turned negative, including a market reversal on Friday of the mining stocks.

The pundits at Financial Sense Newshour have been noticeably disappointed of late, that their "Junior" mining companies have been somewhat ignored in the market place while money has flowed more into the "Majors" and near major mining firms. (Their thesis is: that mining stock appreciation should precede a run-up in the metal price.) Puplava looks eventually for major mining companies to follow the lead of major oil companies: expanding production through acquisition as opposed to exploration.

One thing perspective lacking in their collective market call, was a lack of acknowledgement in the collapse or potential collapse of the Japanese Yen and how that is driving gold demand and price. Notable, that with the collective understanding these men have, they should overlook what is -- and may continue for some time -- a major driver of physical gold. A force that just may not give a hoot as to what goes on with the metal stocks.

Rather an odd show this week.

GoldendomeCoxe notes --as others here have here-- Japanese are driving Gold.#13911312/11/05; 18:41:10

In his weekly conference call Don Coxe (Harris Bank) points out that gold price is being driven by Japanese buying, as investors attempt to preserve buying power as their currency has collapsed from around 109 in April to around 121 today.

Japanese individual investors are attempting to get out of their own currency as they now see the BOJ not raising interest rates with a growing economy, a rising Nikkei index, but a reluctance to invest in dollars.

Coxe points out that there are increasingly poor relations between Japan and China and his fear [though not his prediction] is that the Japanese will allow the Yen to fall below 122 [a line in the sand drawn by China that the yen not fall below]. Coxe wonders aloud whether the gold market is predicting continued deterioration on the yen, and a consequent currency war with China. ---Then with neither country participating in support of the dollar.--

He then asks the question, but again, is not predicting: Is the gold market also telling us that the U.S. dollar is going to be the next currency to take a plunge after the yen? If so, something much more than $500 gold will be in store. Don says, that this Yen and China problem is not something that investors are taking note of; it is on page 16. But he says, investors should be keeping an eye on what's on page 16, heading to page 1.

IMO, everyone should be tuning into this conference call weekly, if your computer has the capability.

R PowellOvS#13911412/11/05; 18:44:06

I do not wish to get into the realm of metaphysics. I'm most certainly not qualified. I did note the inference that one's occupation defines one's intellect. This is nothing new. Book + cover stuff. I am very well paid to do that which very few would even attempt.

I do wish to understand Belgian's thoughts, especially HIS connotation of his use of the word "planned" in his post.

There is a difference between believing that an event will come to pass as a result of economic forces unfolding .....and that the event will become reality as a result of the efforts of a group of men. With Belgian's help, maybe I'll come to understand this "freegold" concept which no one seems able to define using clearly understandable language. I often wonder how many read here. I also wonder how many understand his concept of "freegold".

Smeagol@ Sir Goldendome#13911512/11/05; 18:44:47

Maybe they were referring to the "overboughtness" in the charts/indicators, also in light of the usual seasonal weakness which will be upon us in a few months.

Then again, the gold rocket may have just been lit by fire from a copper match being applied to a silver fuse!


R PowellPOG#13911612/11/05; 18:59:29

The overnight markets are up and is the POG...+$5.70....POS +$0.04
R PowellSmeagol#13911712/11/05; 19:07:14

Yours is an interesting description of market forces, thanks. Maybe one more category might be added, that of the true business (not speculative) hedger if they aren't alreay included in there.
Goldendome@ Sir Smeagol#13911812/11/05; 19:33:36

Yes, your observations were among those that were mentioned as negatives in the near term. The seasonality has certainly been a significant factor these past few years.

Longterm, Jim and his comentators remain friendly to gold. They're just saying: watchout, short term. Be ready for some pain.

In the other post, Don Coxe, from Harris Banking, always seems to have some interesting insights on the metals and oil markets. Often times, outside the box.

R PowellNothing but green indicators#13911912/11/05; 19:36:23

with the exception of the US dollar and the yen.
TownCrierWhat does the arrival of King Kong have to do with dollar devaluations and gold revaluations?#13912012/11/05; 19:48:13

Check out Professor von Braun's update to the 'Rocket School of Economics' and find out what he has to say about these historical coincidental events in his latest commentary entitled "Gorillas, Rising Gold Prices and Depreciating Paper Currencies!"
SmeagolBusiness hedging, & maybe some "Freegold" light#13912112/11/05; 19:48:13

Sir R Powell,

I think they would be included with number 2, business hedging as I understand it being done so as to "stabilize" the price of the commodity, to ensure (insure) more or less predictable prices.

I understand the "freegold" plan as one that seeks to settle the insolvent "worth" of many generations of debt issuance (mostly in promissory dollars, petro- or otherwise), not by default, which would create havoc, but by vesting that worth, which currently cannot ever be paid, in an orderly manner to gold. That way the debts will be settled and everyone will be happy - (especially those that have some gold in hand before the train leaves the station).

The current trading environment, again as I see it, is one that is being allowed to function with "selective" oversight, so that gold can be reallocated to the places where the debt "is", and as the revaluation takes place this generational debt will slowly be erased, with any final adjustments taking place along the way.

The amount of the debt being so obscene will result in what will appear to the uninformed to be an incredibly high price for one particular metal, compared to other metals. The debt having been eliminated thus, gold loans and debt shuffling schemes will no longer be needed. Currencies having been fully detached from gold and the debts settled, their value will never again be linked to gold, but gold that a country holds will continue to be an important (and very potent) reserve component.

I think the current administration's deplorable irresponsibility in fiscal matters reflects a desire to derail this plan or at least take advantage of the requirement for a "slow" transition, spending as much as they can until the jig is up, when the dollar will have to toe the line to compete with other currencies - against gold.

I may have it partly wrong; others will have to check me on this. Help, anyone?


DruidGoldendome (12/11/05; 18:41:10MT - msg#: 139113)#13912212/11/05; 19:57:49

Druid: It would be interesting to posit if Japan is now, at this point in time, trying to play catch up with China in terms of acquiring bullion as a defense in a currency battle. If ANOTHER was correct in his postings reference a "Big Trader" from the far East hauling in bullion over the last decade, then, I would suggest to you that maybe China might be in a better position to weather this currency battle and Japan, as a policy initiative, might want to hit the ask for a few more years. Thanks for the link.

@Rich, thanks for the reply. Keep at it good Sir. If I'm not mistaken, the Mexican Central Bank recognizes silver as a part of its portfolio. All markets are getting more interesting by the day.

SmeagolAddendum to my last#13912312/11/05; 19:59:52

Concerning "the men" who are implementing the "freegold plan" from "the shadows", so to speak, I think that the idea has been discussed for years at the highest levels, that nearly every leader of every country already knows about it and - for those countries strangling in dollar nooses (most of them) - are waiting (more or less patiently) as it happens.

Which brings me to this - what possibility is there that it WON'T happen? What could derail it?


SmeagolAnd again#13912412/11/05; 20:07:08

"That way the debts will be settled and everyone will be happy -"

Well, actually the US WON'T be happy at all, nosiree Rich, as yes, the debt-heat is off of them, but in return for that everyone will get to see what a dollar is REALLY worth as the revaluation takes place - FAR LESS than it is perceived to be now! Bye bye reserve currency status!


OvSRich.#13912512/11/05; 21:32:04

Rest asured no put-down
was intended. Perhaps it
will interest you to know
that as a young man with
a few friends I built a
boat made out of cement.
For decades it was used as
a houseboat on the 79th
Street boat basin on
Manhattan's Westside.

I had a well-rounded expe-
rience with a cross-section
of the world's races and
met people from the highest
down to the lowest of occu-
i.e.: A German duke who
stole 4 of my lithographs.
A Jewish plumber who would,
if I needed it, give me the
shirt off his back. On & on.

I think most forum-members
will agree that you are one
of the most interesting
posters with an excellent
mind, straight forward (you
must be an Irishman a la
Murphy) and your occupation
makes you just more interes-

Your involvement with coffee
makes me concerned about you. I
knew a Greek Coffee Shop owner
who caught the Coffee bug....
Sold his successful coffeshop.
Became a full-time trader of
coffee. Made millions. Lost
all and became a taxicab driver.
Saved some money. Plunged again
and made another substantial
fortune. And, of course, lost
it all again. It had become an
That reminds me of Charlie, a
Hispanic Jew who inherited a
fortune in Midtown real estate.
He was a chess-master and one
of the best backgammon players
I know of.
Always played for substantial
money, both chess and back-gam-
mon. Now he is no more. But, a
few years before his demise, you
could see him walk the NYC
streets with two huge black
trashbags, sifting through

I "think" I understand Belgian.
I think free gold makes a lot
of sense. And IF it can be imple-
mented it should be of benefit to
the whole world (and more so to a
few, tight as glue, self-selected
few). But, the best intentioned
plans can and will go wrong. We'll
see. Keep it up Rich. The best
with your "highly daring ventures".
After all, we only live twice..OvS

GoldiloxSatellite Images from the London fuel dump fire.#13912612/11/05; 21:33:19

A good overhead image of the smoke and atmospherc disturbance from the London fuel dump fires.
Mr GreshamTime to#13912712/11/05; 21:35:24

get my password locked in on my regular computer, now that I'm back home. (If it got stolen on some hotel computer, please don't believe anything stupid I might say... ;)

Wonder if good times (for us) will be as confouding as the bad times were? Maybe from our Olympic viewpoint -- the detachment gained from holding our ground while others lose their shirts -- we'll be able to see and analyze more clearly.

I guess we've always done just that, but it's looked like we might be wrong, since our numbers didn't pan out so obviously well. (Well, you'd have to call $300 to high 400s pretty good, but as for getting recognition for that, nahhhhh.)

Anyway, we always posited that the control on POG was on, until it couldn't be maintained anymore at a cost-beneficial price to the system that was resisting its message, so maybe the players who joined in on that, and relied on Fed backing their ability to front-run price moves are now defecting from the pact.

More than anything, it was LTCM that showed me the fragility of the system, and Greenspan's ability to knock heads together around the table to keep players from selling out their positions and bringing it all down.

Maybe they've all made their repositioning moves now, onto our side of the street (at least with their private funds), and it's time to let the dogs out...

Flatliner@some ‘Freegold" light#13912812/11/05; 22:15:28

R Powell, I applaud your quest here. Please do keep us informed as you discover more information, facts, or pertinent observations regarding your quest to understanding … gold.

I do like Smeagols rundown of Freegold. It is unfortunate that we did not get to see it thought his other personality. That would have been more colorful.

I would like to add something to it. But, I'll add a cautious statement before hand saying that I've been told that I've got the Freegold concept "dead wrong." So, fwiw, I believe that ‘value’ plays a key roll in the Freegold concept. I also believe that as time goes on, all of us will see people valuing currencies less then they value real assets. We will probably see a mass movement as people realize that what they once valued as precious, is really just a means to get something with it. Paper makes for a great exchange, assets make for great storage – but, I'm sure you are already familiar with that.

When I first asked about the Freegold concept, I was coldly sent to go read the thoughts of another and walk the trail of a Friend Of Another. Anyone that is interested, should take a weekend, lock themselves in a room and give it a go. Links to the articles can be found at the top of this page under Gold Trails and Thoughts.

When you are done, you may find that you will never sell your gold!

osa104cBernanke's inflation targeting#13912912/11/05; 22:40:43

Wants a 2% inflation target???……………plan, announce, scheme, say it three times….......becomes the truth regardless of the evidence………Furthermore, he states the US depression of the 1930's was DUE to a raise in the interest rates in 1928 coupled with deflation and the "WORLDS" reliance on "A GOLD STANDARD"…………………is there any other truer instrument (compass)????
SmeagolDon't quote me yet ;-)#13913012/11/05; 22:42:44

I'm not sure if I have Freegold quite right either, Sir Flatliner. (smile) And I did leave out the part that OIL plays in all this.

I myself still go back to the HOF/Archives for refreshers to see if things are on track and what may yet be in store. Tonight I was trying to digest ORO's writings at the link. Whew!

Trying to write, especially anything complicated, clearly through "poor Gollum's" eyes is sometimes a task I need to take a break from and that is why I "turn down" his voice on occasion.

(Smeagol mode on)

sss...there, precious...better, yes? Maybe we tries next time with long wordy Thoughtses! (grin) Back to lurking...
and... ssneaking.

SmeagolSsir Flatliner...#13913112/11/05; 22:55:19

"I was coldly sent to go read..."

Don't take it too harsh, precious...we are sure it is not meant that way... but we can imagine how tiring it gets, for the sstronger, more...sss...far-ssighted ones have to drag out "the resst of the Sstory" every time a new Traveller on the Trail finds themsselfs at the Casstle doors. Maybe yoursself will be in their boots one day, eh? (cackle)

Concerning It, after finding this place...we would rather be here, than anywhere else, O yess!


Liberty HeadFreegold, as I understand the term.#13913212/11/05; 23:15:55

Freegold is gold voluntarily traded in the absence of force or fraud. The primary source of force and fraud is in the form of legal tender laws favoring fiat currency, gov't expansion and Central Banks.

Best Wishes

jenikaI got curious#13913312/11/05; 23:23:32

I started to think a little about gold and decided to look up what gold was worth in the 1700's, I figured the 1700's was a time where only Kings could afford to hold gold.
In the 1700's a policeman's wages in England was 13 pound and 1 oz of gold was 4 pound. So, he was basicaly paid 3 oz for a year.
In 2005 in England a policeman earns 34,000 and gold is 304 pounds = 112 oz of gold a year he is paid.
If gold reasserts its self as being only fit for kings to hold and our 2005 policeman gets paid equivalant to 3 oz of gold - gold would be worth 11,300 pounds an oz.
On todays exchange that would equal $19,800+ US dollars an oz.
Not quite the 30,000 offered by Another, but close enough :)
Any way thats my ramblings for today. Hope everyone has a fantastic Holiday season and a joyful Christmas day. Thank you all for your enlightening postings. Thanks USAgold.

Gandalf the WhiteWOWSERS --- THE DAWGS are going WILD ! See LINK !!!#13913412/11/05; 23:25:12

The COMEX Banksters are in "DEEP DUE DUE" (or is that DEW DEW) as the world SPOT is over $10 (TEN) higher than Friday's NY SPOT close.
There could be FIREWORKS in NY on Monday !!

GoldendomeSome folks in Europe probably waking up with their shorts afire.#13913512/11/05; 23:53:39

Some serious booty being kicked tonight in the metals(again). Should this trend hold tonight, when do the short sellers get their notices for increased margin? Is it at the close of trading for the day and market where the short was recorded, or some other system?

[The Yen is down again tonight.] Japanese investors scramblin' to get out of the yen? Nikkei up -- the highest in years -- logs it's biggest gain in years -- inflation -- Japanese style hyperinflation setting in?

A fire starts in one spot -- gets out of control -- somethings far away from the source may get burned badly.

Gandalf the WhiteOOPS -- There goes ANOTHER rubber tree plant ! <;-)#13913612/12/05; 00:43:21

Where is Sir Goldfly when we need to SING ?
$540 has been BREACHED !

Caradoc@Gandalf#13913712/12/05; 00:47:29

Perhaps time to quote Ralph Cramden?



WaveriderSir Gandalf......#13913812/12/05; 00:47:47

You feeding them rooo meat again??
BelgianYES Rich...YES...#13913912/12/05; 00:51:55


No need to understand,...just watch it unfolding and have a nice cup of coffee.

TownCrierBelgian,#13914112/12/05; 01:58:11

If I had a nickel for every person who understood freegold and the forces behind it, I wouldn't have enough money for that cup of coffee you speak of.

But as you rightly point out, there comes a time when there's no need to understand, because living through it, as it unfolds, will be the clearest and most unforgettable (and hopefully not goldless-regrettable) lesson of a lifetime.


TownCrierPopular myths don't explain rise in gold price#13914212/12/05; 02:36:56

December 12, 2005 -- Why is the gold price increasing?

The answer commonly given is in the form of a story about fears of inflation and dollar decline. Central banks and other investors have responded to this fear by diversifying their portfolios away from the dollar and into gold to protect value.

Previously, central banks across the globe were involved in a race to the bottom as they furiously bought dollars to devalue their currencies and to stimulate exports.

But the free lunch is over and central banks are diversifying their portfolios because, export promotion or no export promotion, nobody wants to be left holding dollars after the party is over.

Like most myths and tales, this story resembles reality but has taken some liberties and flights of fancy.

The first of these flights of fancy is that of rising inflation and inflationary expectations. If this were true we would see long-term yields, particularly in the US, increasing.

...However, long-term yields in the US have been declining for some time....

There are push and pull factors towards gold and away from other assets. War, deficits and the aftermath of hurricanes are compelling reasons to hedge against the dollar just in case things take a turn for the worse.

While these factors have implications for the price, mere inflationary expectations capture a secondary effect rather than the cause of market uncertainty....

...It is important to note that the attractiveness of gold in times of uncertainty is derived from its incomparable liquidity during an economic crisis. When fiat money is compromised, gold is king.

The liquidity of gold is conditional on physically holding gold. It is not enough to have shares in gold companies or gold exchange-traded funds. These gold-derived assets are as liquid as any other financial instrument in times of crisis, which is considerably less liquid than gold.

^----(from url)---^

Standard media is only just starting to hint slightly closer to the fundamentals that stand behind this new gold paradigm. FOA has already laid it out for all to see at 'The Gold Trail'. Visit that link atop this page for that particular timely (and timeless) insight.


Belgian@TC#13914312/12/05; 02:51:46

The overwhelming evidence that we are "on the road" to freegold, is piling up.
The evolution towards freegold, in itself, is already a big fundamental change. The side effects, this evolution is going to produce, will be "very" painful for some and less painful for a majority. Good reason for leaving "the understanding" and better be fully prepared...with goldmetal in one's hand.

TownCrierGold at US$1,000?#13914412/12/05; 03:13:04

Financial Post; December 12, 2005

Soon after the price of gold broke the US$500-an-ounce barrier earlier this month, a number of gold-loving investors began mulling over the next big hurdle.

Could it top US$600 an ounce within a year? Dare they dream beyond US$1,000 an ounce?

...the price of gold has been rising with the U.S. dollar and in virtually all other major currencies as well....

...the reasons for these eye-popping moves are obvious.

Living standards are rising in China and India, where people love gold.

...Finally, some of the world's central banks, once big sellers of gold, may now be stocking up on it as a diversification strategy and a hedge against a declining U.S. dollar. ... Russia's central bank has said it would like to double its exposure to gold, to 10% of its assets.

...all it takes is a relatively small diversion from stocks or bonds into gold to make the metal's price shoot up.

John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund in the United States and one of the most outspoken gold investors, believes gold has been in a quiet "stealth" bull market for the past five years. It still is, and the price of gold will eventually trade into the four digits. "The bull market in gold, which commenced in August, 1999, will shed its stealth mode. Its pace will quicken and become difficult to ignore," he said in a note to clients earlier this year. "We stand at the end of the beginning of the first leg in a multi-year bull market in the metal."

The world is awash with money right now and it's looking for places to go.


"All mining companies are facing increased input costs on everything from fuel, labour, rubber and carbon," said analysts at BMO Nesbitt Burns in a recent research note. "Combined with ageing mines, start-ups or otherwise marginal operations, rising costs can prove lethal for a junior company with limited financial resources."

They noted at the end of November that the 13 junior gold producers they follow have seen their share prices plummet an average of 21% this year.

Some observers blame the gap between the rising price of gold and relatively unspectacular share appreciation on the fact that some companies dilute their earnings by issuing more shares.

"I'm very vocal about how investor-unfriendly the success of share issuance is," said Mr. Hathaway in a Barron's interview last month.

Indeed, it is through share issues that the current mergers and acquisition frenzy in gold is being funded. Last week, Goldcorp Inc. grabbed a property from Virginia Gold Mines Inc., Iamgold Corp. said it is acquiring Gallery Gold Ltd. and Yamana Gold Inc. said it is buying RNC Gold Inc. The market doesn't expect it to end there, but as Desjardins Securities noted last week, a lack of cash in the sector means that most of these acquisitions will be funded with shares.

^---(from url)---^

Lot's of inbreeding among the companies. Bottom line: if you TRULY WANT to support a mine, buy its product. It's as simple as that, and no true blue blooded miner in his right mind will ever stand and gainsay this advice.

And if your opinion is to say 'nuts' to the company, and instead quite justifiably seek to single-mindedly pursue what's in your own personal best interest, the advice remains simply the same -- buy the product -- buy the gold.


Cavan ManHello from Dublin.....#13914512/12/05; 03:34:04

Good to see POG at these levels eh? All the best...CM
NedWowswers is right !#13914612/12/05; 05:32:13

Spot up 11 US pesos since Friday close, starting to accelerate.

When will it ever end !


Black BladeThe Golden Eagle Soars!#13914712/12/05; 06:23:42

Gold and silver rocketed over night before pulling back slightly. Apparently Japanese funds are huge buyers. The Yen is a junk currency and the rise of the POG in yen terms is phenomenal. The big news is that the BOJ thinks inflation is on the way after nearly two decades of deflation. The problem is that central banks miss the mark and almost overshoot. The massive infusion of yen will keep the Japanese gold bull charging ahead.

I also note several guest commentators saying that gold has topped out while they incessantly talk their book on mediocre stocks. This continous bashing of gold is really good for gold investors because the time to buy is when everyone hates gold, or as Warren Buffett says - buy when there is blood in the streets. We still have a buy signal on the PMs. We could easily see gold leg up much more before year-end. I also sense a bit of despair on the part of stock players who are sore that they did not get into the gold gravy train. I watched FOX's "Cashin In' and the lone gold bull Jonathan Hoenig takes a lot of flack for buying gold in spite of having such wonderful gains. Poor "Cashin In" panelist Dagan McDowell who has been a gold basher continues to poo poo gold even as she missed the train and had to know that gold soared 114% from the low in 1998.

Today the markets will watch the OPEC meeting in Vienna and tomorrow's FOMC meeting. Meanwhile oil and natural gas prices remain very strong. However, while many focus on oil the real story is in natural gas. On Wednesday we get the weekly crude and distillate inventory report and on Thursday we get the weekly natural gas storage report. With 25% of Gulf of Mexico natgas production offline and much of that permanently lost. the draw of natgas storage will be of strong interest for the markets. I figure about a -200 Bcf draw on cold temperatures. The high energy costs trickle into costs for goods and services increasing the odds for a substantial increase in money supply. The result will be high prices and slow growth (stagflation).

As always, get outta debt and stay outta debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months of basic coverage of expenses, accumulate gold and silver "portfolio insurance", and start a non perishable food storage program if you haven't done so already. We just might see an "Inflation Tsunami" by mid 2006. Preparation is imperative for basic wealth preservation and survival for you and your family. Better make that call to the castle guards and dip your hands into the CPM treasury while you can. I would suggest that those with more limited means accumulate a bit of Gold slowly but steadily to "dollar cost average" but more importantly to "Prepare"! It's not a matter of "if" but "when" the "Inflation Tsunami" strikes.

- Black Blade

NedHello BB, question for you and all....#13914812/12/05; 08:39:05

All this talk in 2005 about that special tax bill, forgive me, I forget the name. The 'corporate repatriation' tax bill thingy that rescued the dollar last Christmas. Several analysts have commented on it lately.

It is supposed to cease as of end 2005 but rumor is it may be extended through 2006.


Do you know of this? How much impact does it have on the dollar?

I notice the DX taking a dive today, USD to resume crash??


NedBTW, one of the best I've seen lately#13914912/12/05; 08:41:25

NedThe "Amendment for Jobs Creation Act"#13915012/12/05; 08:43:40

"The Amendment for Jobs Creation Act is a classic misnomer, a fraud, nothing but a sweet corporate welfare conjob. The only job in this scheme is "conjob" for sure. Few if any new jobs were created, as over $200 billion have been repatriated to date. Planned to generate new jobs and create new business, the legislation has instead been a bonanza for big corporations to bring home vast sums of money. The record shows the bulk of foreign funds having been devoted to stock buybacks, sure to reinforce executive stock options. The bill is also known as the Homeland Investment Act, a more appropriate name, since homebound funds have been invested for sure, just not for business purposes." view of this bill.

YGMGold Index Giving Major Green Signal#13915112/12/05; 09:00:27

Gold needs the miners to play catch up if gains are to hold. Miners always hold the leverage and this time it's no different as history will repeat. Watch and see! This Gold Bull will have the Jr Gold miners on the boil before long.
KnallgoldRich P./manipulation#13915212/12/05; 09:03:09

In a recent post you said the price is set simply by supply/demand,pragmatically and logic.I fully agree.

Later on you said you screen out politics.Now heres your problem-how can a blind ridicule those,who see,the moon-as lunatics?

Now could it be that there is political will to influence supply and demand,particularly Gold?You just would have to open your eyes,think political,about power,geostrategic games-what other humans could think in their position.

contrarianAmerican Jobs Creation Act#13915312/12/05; 09:08:11

Although ending Dec. 31 (as it was just for 04 Tax Year, I believe), even if reenacted for 05, I question if it would have same impact, since it was only supposed to be for a year, and I would imagine that corporations made sure to blow their wad, so to speak, during that limited time frame; consequently, any estension of the cynically named act may have diminished impact (I hope).

Most certainly, this was the main reason for the dollar rally. Of course, in a recent article, a well know Street publication pointed only to the increasing interest rate hikes throughout the year as the cause of the dollar rally, but that's just the pablum party line, and the real reason above, as usual, lies underneath the surface for those who dig deeper.

Gandalf the WhiteYES !!! The US$ chart is .......#13915412/12/05; 09:14:18


osa104cELEVATION#13915512/12/05; 09:42:36

When those water falls are visible at 85.40, all hell will break loose..........$10 dollar peso days will be mild gains.........WHERE'S ALICE???????
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.FREE Gold Information Packet... to help you enter the market with grace and confidence#13915612/12/05; 10:52:24

TownCrierAnalysts see gold's bull run continuing#13915712/12/05; 11:17:42

12 December 2005 -- Gold prices raced to fresh multi-year highs on Friday, breaching the $520/oz mark for the first time since 1981, as fears of supply shortages pushed demand for bullion higher.

Analysts said the metal, which has been on a strengthening trend over the past two months, was likely to remain bullish for some time, although an exact level at which the metal would peak was hard to gauge.

In the past five years the price of gold has doubled, and this year alone it has gained 20%.

^---(from url)---^

Yawn. I think the utter LACK of 'real' gold news being reported these days IS the most noteable story. After the central banks added a bit of fuel with a brief flurry of gold reserve news a few weeks ago, they have gone conspicuously quite again -- almost like lowering the control rods in a nuclear reactor to carefully manage the amount of heat.


Smeagolhmmm...#13915812/12/05; 11:29:18

...doesn't look like the daily six-dollar ssmashdown is working very well anymore. (grin)

Smeagolokay...#13915912/12/05; 12:57:52

ssss... sso they can't take a joke.
Rookagain?#13916012/12/05; 13:34:36

Are we headed for a repeat, in some ways, of what happened in the seventies? Gold went up, beyond most folks expectations. Some I heard about, and some I actually knew, saw the gold rise as the end of it all and sold everything and moved to Mexico and other parts so they could survive nicely on thier earnings as the world collapsed.
Are we going to find a gold peak in our future followed by another Volker style high interest rate 20 year bonds that mops up lots of long term investment capitol floating around. Built into the scenario this time would be the knowledge that the next recession/worse, will see us with globalist companies dominating thier fields as the recession takes out a vast layer of family owned businesses. What does the regular guy do after the present and future globalization washout?
If there is some agreement already, some kind of one world rough structural outline, with things heading so fast, wouldnt Americas deficiet/credit expansion, explosion, be used to get us to the -parity with the chinese goal- paradoxically quicker?
I mean, isnt there some point at which the big guys decide enough already. Why take the slow route if you can avoid it, the slow route that has ALL American manufactureing and all possible service jobs sent overseas, via computer and phone. If there is a deal, and enough of the globalist future structure is in place, isnt it likely that the big boys, if they have the chance, if the agreements are in place and all main players are tied in enough, isnt it then only good chess playing for the big boys, Fed folks and whomever, to rush us to a breaking point of some sort that brings changes sooner rather than later, and keep some percentage of industries here?
Would the gold rise fit in with that?
I cannot believe greenspan when he warns about deficeits and the future. Surely if he cannot see a way for us to handle the future if we dont ease up a little bit soon, but what is reasonable about that guidance of his? If he cannot believe it is reasonable for us to handle the future unless we just have excess at a shade less level than is projected, how does he explain the ok'ness of the excess he has approved and he has been orchestrating all these years?
But, is there a concern about the future of jobs here by the fed? Or, is that just a political issue, and politicians are all involved with each others naughtiness, and foreign affairs (some), and they dont discuss the comind dillemma of the regular joe.
Without some plan, how do you sustain reserve status after you have no more undisbursed industries and service jobs?
Is the job issue one more of the forceing issues that will compell a decision point decision?

TownCrierFX-based exchange traded product launched on NYSE#13916112/12/05; 13:37:39

NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Rydex Euro Currency Trust issued Euro CurrencyShares on The New York Stock Exchange on Monday, a currency-backed exchange traded product allowing equity investors to track moves in the currency market, Rydex said.

Shares in the product are backed against euros held in London by JP Morgan Chase, the custodian.

"As with any other equity, Euro CurrencyShares can be bought, sold, or sold short in a traditional brokerage account thereby enabling all investors to take advantage of the strategic and tactical opportunities in the foreign exchange market," Rydex said in a press statement.

^----(from url)---^

If there were an award for 'Most Ridiculous Product of the Year', this one gets my vote.

Similarly, the gold ETFs would get my vote for the 'Trojan Horse' or 'Wolf in Sheep's Clothing' awards. And just in case I need to spell it out further for the blissfully disillusioned, I would refer directly to the third paragraph cited above. To elaborate further, basically picking up where another erudite poster had left off nearly a year ago, ask yourself: What's the net result in the premise of allocated gold to stand behind the ETF when the shares themselves are effectively UNallocated and shortable on margin?

The mechanics of price discovery will have you for lunch until such time as the market and its participants put the emphasis on the physical metal and the tangible ownership thereof.

I continue to stress to my friends and associates that the announcement of leasing curbs in the 1999/2004 Central Bank Agreements on Gold marked the important beginning of the transition to the pricing liberalization of physical gold.

In the meanwhile, however, New York will continue to push paper exactly as New York is wont to do right up until the breaking point.

If it burns, it ain't as good as gold and therefore fails the first criterion as a suitable portfolio diversifier. Keep it real. Call USAGOLD-Centennial for consultation, competitive prices, and to-your-door delivery.

TOLL FREE 1-800-869-5115


osa104cNOT again#13916212/12/05; 14:46:27

What's different? How about 2.6 billion people emerging as a "middle class" with solid FUNDALMENTAL beliefs that GOLD is precious…..we all shall "C"……hop on the rocket (hOLD physical)……..cruising altitude most probably will be brought to BIBLICAL proportions……..
USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#13916312/12/05; 15:16:20">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

MONDAY Market Excerpts

Gold up over $1, nears 25-yr high amid 'state of frenzy'

December 12 (from MarketWatch, DowJones) -- Gold futures closed over $1 an ounce higher Monday at a nearly 25-year high as fresh reports of investment demand in Asia and the Middle East drove prices up for an eighth session in a row.

"Incessant demand for gold from speculators and investors alike continues to swell metal prices with the entire complex pushing on to fresh highs ... extending the gains made Friday," said James Moore, an analyst at, in a note to clients.

COMEX February gold climbed to a high of $543 Monday, a level not seen in the futures market since April 1981. The contract closed at $531.50, up $1.30.

The contract has added around $25 since the beginning of December and is up 17% for the year to date, driven by strong physical demand, central bank buying and inflation concerns.

"This is the eighth-consecutive trading day that a new major trend high has been logged and the fifth straight day when the magnitude of gains has increased," said economists at Action Economics, who cited reports of strong investment fund demand for the metal in Japan, India, China and the Middle East.

Bill O'Neill of LOGIC Advisors said the longer-term picture for gold remains positive and the yellow metal is likely to reach $600 an ounce in 2006.

O'Neill added that physical demand for gold is holding steady despite the rise in prices.

"We are seeing solid levels of demand in Russia, the Middle East and Vietnam," said O'Neill, adding the jewelry season is being extended.

A mixture of Central Bank buying and fund interest is keeping gold buoyant, but O'Neill said the market is in a "state of frenzy".

Despite seeing healthy corrections, O'Neill said some market players may want to take option positions "to be safe".

"We are still bullish on gold but there is a little too much frenzy going on," O'Neill said. In the next few weeks, O'Neill cautioned that the market may see some end-of-the-year book squaring, but he added that gold is moving on with a new role as an alternative non-nationalized currency.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---

R PowellKnallgold#13916412/12/05; 15:35:20

I read that you agree with my theory that perhaps the POG is rising due to supply and demand. Basically more buying than production.

As for screening out politics, I had hoped that I'd been clear when saying that I believe fundamentals (simply more buying than selling) is now the main force moving the POG. Of course there are many, many forces moving the gold market. This is why gold is such a hard market to trade. But these forces vary in strength at different times. The dollar/POG connection has lost, recently, some of its power to move the gold price. Other forces are now relatively stronger. Should something important + devastating blow up somewhere in the world, then I'd guess that safe haven buying would immediately become the main force moving POG, at least in the very short term, etc. There are always a multitude of forces. One analyst, Phillip Gotthelf, thinks physical buying by ETFs has been the recent catalyst. He cites the lack of an investment vehicle available to the average investor (and retirement funds, etc.) before this stock traded opportunity was born. There are many forces for both up and down, always present.

As for political will to influence supply and demand ....or buying and you suggested, I had not thought of that as a cause but certainly can not refute such as a possibility. Who knows? I don't subscribe to the grand conspirary theories but I never say never or it couldn't happen. The market cap of a market of gold's size tends to make me think that gold wouldn't even be on the agenda of any group so huge as to be able to move economics on such a grand scale over such a long time. Like the CNBC cheerleaders, gold is not something most are aware of. And as to their ability to control ....Hey, they couldn't even get ice delivered to New Orleans after the hurricane. But, I can't refute, nor do I discount, your theory. Thanks for your thoughts.

R PowellKnallgold#13916512/12/05; 15:48:48

It just occured to me that by "political will" you could just as well be refering to the simple central bank buying of Asian countries or any number of other non-conspiracy type manipulation newly formed policies that favor buying. To this I'll fully agree and, if this was your meaning of politcial will, I apologize for misunderstanding.

R PowellThanks......#13916612/12/05; 16:22:47

to Smeagol, Druid, OvS, Flatliner, Liberty Head, and of course Belgian and anyone else I've forgotten, who responded to me recently in my quest to get a definition of the "freegold" concept.

I'm still trying, but have some thoughts as to the idea that any market can trade free of the multitude of forces that affect every market. Obviously rainfall, so important to crops, is not a metals' market issue but all markets react to currency exchanges, embargos, economic prosperity or the lack of same, changing demographics, consumer fads, investor sentiment, etc. as well as to their own particular market concerns (like rainfall for crops). Will it ever be possible for any item to trade in a vacuum, free from such forces? If gold is a political metal, and remains as such, can it ever trade free of politics, whether or not the paper market becomes dwarfed by physical exchange? I don't know....would such a complete divorce from these forces be a prerequisite for "freegold"? Or, is a complete divorce from these forces a reasonable definition of "freegold".??

Thanks again to all for tolerating me. I'm not one to blindly agree and shake my head "yes" when, in fact, I do not have a working understanding of this concept.

MK, is, imho, an excellent wordsmith. Michael, can you offer a definition?? TIA

The Invisible HandLaissez faire, laissez passer!#13916712/12/05; 16:31:30

Gata finally admits that antitrust laws are unnecessary.

Mon, 12 Dec 2005 02:24:41 -0000
Subject: [GATA] Bill Murphy: Gold cartel has lost control
The bums are trapped. These white-collar thugs who have violated U.S. anti-trust laws for so many years have cooked their own goose.

Le monde va de lui-meme. (Mercier de la Riviere) VICTORY!!!!

FlatlinerWho are "they"… really?#13916812/12/05; 16:52:51

GATA link referred too below.

One day, it would be nice to really find out who ‘they’ are. Along with that, it would be informative to know what the motive was/is and how it was really done.

I know that there is a ton(ne) of information at the GATA site and I've read over a lot of it, but, speculating is much different then piecing together facts.

I am looking forward to that day. But, meanwhile, I am not looking forward to the fallout!

GoldiloxSilver Volatility?#13916912/12/05; 17:05:15

If you've been looking for violent 5+% in-a-day swings, I'd say:


GoldiloxWEIRD GOINGS-ON IN THE GOLD MARKET#13917012/12/05; 17:24:59


To say that the price of gold has been behaving somewhat strangely lately – is perhaps a bit of an understatement. In fact, the steady [bordering on dramatic] rise in the price of gold is becoming almost impossible to ignore. Consider, if you would, the following:

For the past few years at least, gold has been mostly portrayed in the greater mainstream financial press as being the ‘anti dollar’ – generally exhibiting strength when the dollar has shown any sign of weakness and vise versa on the slightest sniff of weakness. This previously adhered-to axiom has changed markedly in the past few months – seemingly confounding so many of the "experts" that our responsible mainstream media trots out every other day to explain the machinations of today's gold market . . .

The long and short of what this all means folks, is this:

The dudes who formerly shorted gold futures with ‘reckless abandon’ now appear [statistical evidence – COT data - supports this contention] to want no part of the same. In fact, it would appear that already in December – alarmingly, better than ¼ of all gold stocks held at COMEX warehouses has changed ownership with no substantial or meaningful decrease in the aggregate shorts. These same folks now appear to be ‘trapped short’ with no way to buy their positions back without sending the price of gold to the moon.

Merry Christmas to all – especially if you happen to be ‘long gold.’

SmeagolIf that is the only way out, yesss...#13917112/12/05; 17:28:17

"Will it ever be possible for any item to trade in a vacuum, free from such forces? If gold is a political metal, and remains as such, can it ever trade free of politics, whether or not the paper market becomes dwarfed by physical exchange?"

Perhapss...if the sstakes otherwise are unbearable, it can be "allowed" to happen... jusst as the "problems" that requires ssuch was allowed to worsen... insstead of being fixed.


Flatliner@ R Powell – Thanks…..#13917212/12/05; 17:37:16

You pose some good questions. I for one… do not know, but I'm willing to play the game and find out.

I, too, question if gold could really ever trade without some influence from big players. But no matter how you think of it, if the hearts and minds of people lean towards finding more value in holding gold then they do in holding currencies, then we will see a fundamental change with regards to the respect that gold gets in society. If such a change does happen, we can all rest assured that big players will not be able to devalue our individual holdings unless they actually sell – physical – gold into the market. Likewise, if they want to gather gold, they will have to buy it on off the market – thus, giving it back the value lost during the sale. The best part about it is that, as you know, there is a relatively limited supply in the world and, unless someone can prove otherwise, no one has found a way to counterfeit gold – expect through derivatives. As people learn more about those derivatives, they will apply value accordingly.

So sure, there will be players with huge holdings. They may be political or private institutions, but unless they can create gold out of thin air, they will have to compete with everyone else with regards to how they use it in the future.

At least, in my little corner of the universe, I like to hope or dream that it might work out this way.

David LinkleyBattle royal#13917312/12/05; 17:38:22

The media has finally acknowledged gold's recent rise with charts, reasons for the move, rising analysts targets and finally today reporting that JP Morgan's technical group is targeting $660 gold before this upleg is over. On the other hand just about every gold letter, website and technical analyst has gold dropping to "some level" with one well known person saying sell now and buy back in the spring. So we have gold mentioned very often in the media and "gold's supporters" running for the hills. Which way will it run? IMO I have a hard time seeing a top before a blowoff in the shares. The next several weeks will be interesting. If gold corrects, how much and will the shares be bought on the dips? We shall see.
R PowellGoldilox#13917412/12/05; 19:27:17

You mentioned volatility. I guess we're seeing it, especially in silver! I wonder about those paper players who missed the upside move and were thinking...if only silver retracts so I can buy... will they buy now? Or, are they now remembering how silver fell so far and so fast from 850 to 550? I've been wondering how much of this move might be speculative and how much is demand driven. I guess the market has decided to answer me now. Will this be a sharp and severe but very quick retraction or a long, painful for the bulls, decline? Or, how much will the POS decline to wash out the purely speculative based longs? I don't know but we'll soon know!

Also, Adam Hamilton has commented on that dollar strength/ POG relationship you mentioned or was mentioned in the article you linked (thanks). His opinion is that many investors will not easily give up thinking that gold is still mostly priced in an inverse manner to the dollar. They will believe such even in the face of evidence of other, now more powerful market forces. I have read some analysts...permabears mostly...who may never entirely stop believing such just as some see the POG as always + only an inflation indicator, nothing more, nothing less.

Chris PowellDecline in derivatives signals central banks' retreat with gold#13917512/12/05; 19:38:45

New analysis by GATA consultant Reg Howe.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Chris PowellLaissez faire, my derriere!#13917612/12/05; 19:48:42

Anti-trust laws unnecessary, Invisible Hand?

You mean that we should not mind 10 years of
getting screwed because the criminals might
get caught in the 11th year of their crime

Your approach brings little consolation to
those who lost money or were even wiped out
by investing in precious metals or running
mining companies when the market was even
more rigged than it is today.

If, God forbid, you were ever robbed and
called the police on your cell phone as
the perpetrators escaped, how would you
react if the dispatcher told you to
shrug it off because eventually the
robbers would pick on someone carrying
a concealed .38 and justice would be meted
out to them then?

You're real forgiving of crimes against
others. But such crimes are not entirely
yours to forgive.

Chris PowellWe all know darn well who 'they' are#13917712/12/05; 19:52:05

In Steve Martin's "Dead Men Don't Wear
Plaid," the Latin American police
officer explains, "Only 'they' know
who 'they' are."

But thanks to GATA's work, there's no
mystery about the manipulators in the
gold market. They are the central banks
and their accomplices the bullion banks,
and it's all well documented now. Read
Reg Howe's latest analysis of the BIS
gold derivatives numbers, posted tonight
just below.

R PowellFlatliner#13917812/12/05; 19:53:30

Your words here....

"I, too, question if gold could really ever trade without some influence from big players."

I don't know if you pose this question in addition to some of my questions ...OR ..if you are saying that you think I questioned whether gold could trade without the influence from big players...

I wasn't really refering to big players when I listed some of the forces that influence the POG. I was questioning whether gold or any market will ever trade in a vacuum without these forces. Are not these market moving influences inherent to the world..not able to be removed from the marketplace any more than greed or fear can be totally removed from the minds of men. Society contains some characteristics that can not be removed from society without destroying the essense of what society (anything that men barter amoung themselves) have some features that are inherent to the market's existence. These will effect all players...big money, small plungers and all inbetween, no?

But, if you associate big players as one of these market forces, then yes, I agree entirely, as long as markets exist, there will be big players and they are a force by themselves, I guess, just as all players are to varying degrees. As for this being gold related as opposed to simply market related, I guess it isn't. It crossed my mind while thinking of a market trading in a vacuum (freegold) without the ever present market forces. Perhaps freegold refers to a market trading with only specific market forces excluded...?

R PowellSmeagol#13917912/12/05; 20:02:19

You opined that perhaps gold would be "allowed" (your emphasis) to trade in a vacuum (my reference to a market sans any inherent characteristics that define a (any) market).

This "allowed" implies the influence of some unfathomable force that might I can not imagine. Please refer to my previous post. Even if one assumes that there does exist a clandestine cartel, with access to unlimited capital, whose sole purpose is to depress the POG.....even they would not have the ability to negate the markets innate workings. Even such a cartel would not have the powers some attribute to a god. It implies negating human nature, imho.

R PowellGATA release#13918012/12/05; 20:13:46

Thanks Chris....

This is from that link....

"Gold market analyst Reginald H. Howe, partner
in Golden Sextant Advisors and consultant to
GATA, has analyzed the sharp reduction in gold
derivatives just reported by the Bank for
International Settlements and has concluded
that central banks now are working to reduce
the gold short positions of their clients, the
bullion banks, thus allowing the gold price to

The assumption here is that the reduction of short positions has "thus" allowed the POG to rise.

Why not....the rise in the POG has logically persuaded many investors to close short positions?

The Invisible HandA non-existent crime is not subject to forgiveness#13918112/12/05; 20:29:35

As Alan Greenspan wrote in Ayn Rand's "Capitalism: the Unknown Ideal"
"The world of antitrust is reminiscent of Alice's Wonderland: everything seemingly is, yet apparently isn't, simultaneously. It is a world in which competition is lauded as the basic axiom and guiding principle, yet "too much" competition is condemned as "cutthroat." It is a world in which actions designed to limit competition are branded as criminal when taken by businessmen, yet praised as "enlightened" when initiated by the government. It is a world in which the law is so vague that businessmen have no way of knowing whether specific actions will be declared illegal until they hear the judge's verdict -- after the fact."

Guv'mint is the problem. The solution is to abolish taxation.

Chris PowellAnother brilliant central bank is chided for unloading its gold too cheaply#13918212/12/05; 20:37:38

From the Gulf News is Dubai via GATA.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

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Chris PowellAnti-trust law isn't always so complicated, Invisible Hand#13918312/12/05; 20:47:17

The original anti-trust laws in the
United States prohibited "any
combination in restraint of trade."
That was good enough to make it
clear that rigging markets was
against the law. Sure, you can find
some anti-trust cases that seem
extreme, but you can find some
extreme cases in ANY area of the
law. GATA always has been happy to
stick to the most basic and original
construction of anti-trust law. If
government wants to rig the gold
market, it will have to do it in the
open and cite specific authority in
law, not delegate market rigging to
be done by surreptitious agents in
the private economy. That seems to
be the verdict of Blanchard & Co.'s
lawsuit against Barrick Gold.

Yes, government is often the problem.
The other problem is that when you
have no government, you get governed
by J.P. Morgan Chase -- and half the
time when you DO have government, you
get governed by Morgan Chase anyway.

The solution is not to dissolve the
government but make it better.

The Invisible HandViva l’anarchia!#13918412/12/05; 20:49:07

Chris Powell (12/12/05; 19:52:05MT - msg#: 139177)
We all know darn well who 'they' are
, there's no mystery about the manipulators in the
gold market. They are the central banks
and their accomplices the bullion banks,

Central banks that's guv'mint. that's the problem.
Gata wants innocents in jail!

Ten Bears"In Denial of Crisis" #13918512/12/05; 20:49:50

An informative and well documented two-part commentary with a follow-on from David Jensen.

snips: " In the end, Chinese production of consumer goods only served to delay for a short period the evidence of Central Bank inflation of the money stock while freely transferring, to what was 25 years ago a marginally functional agrarian economy, the technology with which it can challenge the West militarily and economically"

"Concentrating the power of controlling the economy in the hands of a few (or one) central banker and those who can influence them represents a national security threat to the economy. Countries that spend trillions in the pursuit of national defense and anti-terrorism war campaigns should consider that at the core of the nation with a Central Banking system are a handful of individuals whose decisions can completely destabilize the economy."

"If the economy manages to continue on for a period, given the excessive levels of liquidity and inflated value of the financial markets as well as the onset of commodity tightness, like the 1970s we again are positioned vulnerable to the onset of a strong normalizing movement in energy prices and commodity prices which will spike interest rates and destabilize the economy."

"Central Bank selling combined with the silent supply of leased material that distorts the market price of gold, has made the true state of demand of the gold market very difficult to gauge."

"Why the media, whose principle responsibility is to inform citizens with accurate and pertinent information, have taken a tack that in essence aligns with Central Banks, governments of the day, and the financial industry, who have all temporarily benefited from the speculative and investment excess to the long-term detriment of society at large, is not clear."

PRITCHO@ R.Powell - - - - On Being A Naysayer #13918612/12/05; 20:58:14

Rich I enjoy reading your posts especially on Silver where like me you seem to have a special interest.

What is puzzling is your continual denial that vested interests collude to keep a lid on prices.It is one thing for a Media hack to trot out those denials -- it's mysterious when someone with your ability & knowlege also espouses those denials. Ted Butler alone has spelled out the position in massive detail --I can't fathom how anyone with an open mind would not agree with his analysis

Many others with obvious knowlege of what they're talking about have also backed up Butlers assertions both in Silver
and Gold. Your attempt at giving credibilty to the one known as "Uptick" - may be a clue -- its certainly the opposite view of many who see him as part of the problem as he laughed at those who said the PM's were managed.

To deny the obvious -- is indeed a conundrum.

Mthirsty1My fault#13918712/12/05; 20:58:14

Hello,i'm the new guy,thank you for letting me be in your forum.This is going to be short.The reason gold fell so far today is because i bought several ounces friday just before the close.It took 6 months to convince my wife to pull the money out of savings to purchase the gold eagles.Therfore,the price of gold fell 12.00 today.It's all very simple to me,buy and it will drop.Thank's for listening,Mike.(P.S.Have a golden day.)
The Invisible HandIndeed, antitrust laws aren't complicated#13918812/12/05; 20:59:58

They are fundamentally flawed.
They violate the right to private property and the freedom of association.
Alan Greenspan proved that the original construction of anti-trust law is flawed.
How long do we have guv'mint? Since eternity? When does Gata expect that guv'mint will finally become moral? Can guv'mint be made better? How many more time do you need to make it better? Eternity again?
But lawyers must be kept alive, of course. And politicians and ralphnaders also.

Goldendome@Mthirsty1#13918912/12/05; 21:18:40

I was thirsty, but I just downed a Kokanee.
Welcome, and hang in there. Many have said: Don't worry about the price, just get the ounces. In the shorter term we have seen declines after a purchase; in the longer run the ounces will be all important; you have wealth in hand. Gold may dip, but it will never go broke. You'll be OK. The first commitment is probably the hardest part.

Chris PowellSorry, Invisible Hand, but anti-trust laws PROTECT private property#13919012/12/05; 21:19:59

Without them most private property would
end up in very few places. As for
government, you will have to reconcile
yourself to it until you relocate to an
uninhabited island and manage to keep it
uninhabited except for yourself. The
alternative to government is anarchy. So
we have to make the best of our government,
and your sneering cynicism about it is
only an excuse for failing your
responsibilities as a citizen.

Liberty HeadBLAAAAAAAACH#13919112/12/05; 21:20:38

Did I hear someone claim the solution is to make the gov't better?
Oh lord, please deliver me from this never ending B.S.
I must have been very evil in a previous life to deserve this fate.

Blaaaaaachhh !!!!!!!!!!

Mthirsty1Thank you #13919212/12/05; 21:27:46

Thank's goldendome,i appreciate the support.
Chris PowellYes, exactly -- make the government better#13919312/12/05; 21:36:52

Liberty Head, gold's monetary function
is exactly to make government better
-- to limit government, to prevent its
natural excesses, to guarantee
individual liberty against the
government, to advance civilization.
If you have to throw up, throw up at
an anarchist forum, not a gold forum.

24karat@Mthirsty1#13919412/12/05; 21:52:12

Could you make another purchase? I was ready to buy some Eagles but was waiting for a price dip.
Rook/#13919512/12/05; 22:03:27

mthirsty1, you made a great investment.
Mthirsty1Purchase#13919612/12/05; 22:04:09

No problem,just give me another six months.
Mthirsty1Gold#13919712/12/05; 22:06:22

Thank you Rook.
GoldiloxGold's function#13919812/12/05; 22:20:20

@ CP,

If gold's function is to "make government better", why is it always governments that want to debase it?

osa104cKeeping It Simple#13919912/12/05; 22:30:33

China, India, Japan, and the Middle East region just beginning to demand more and more. Doesn't need to be that complicated, hence billions of new purchases, coupled with a region that wants to force (expose) dollars for what they are. GOLDEN LAMPS light the path.
Chris PowellGovernments and gold -- reply to Goldilox#13920012/12/05; 22:53:52

Governments want to control and constrain
gold because they know that, if they
fail, gold will control and constrain them.
Gold is a device by which government is
held in check, which is a form of
government far better than government
without such restraint. Hardly anyone
WANTS to be better, and certainly not
government. Government has to be FORCED
to be better. If that's not the better
part of gold's function, why the heck
are any of us at this forum?

Mthirsty1Question#13920112/12/05; 22:56:24

I thought i would make this last post before you start talking about things i do not understand,but i love listening.I have been collecting coins for sometime,and in my experiance i have discovered that the collecter decides what a coin is worth,through auctions and various other means,in other words, i,and my fellow collectors decide what that coin is worth by how much we are willing to pay for it.
GoldiloxGold's function#13920212/12/05; 23:47:52

@ CP,

"Hardly anyone WANTS to be better" - at least you didn't say "No One"!

I would have to differ with this statement, but I understand your premise.

Check out Wilhelm Reich's works on government, especially, "The Mass Psychology of Fascism", the work that found him chased from Austria, Norway, England, and finally dead in a US prison cell - for selling his Orgone Accumulator (a tanning salon by non-believer's standards) without a "prescription."

I think I have more faith in the individual (based on your above statement), and less faith in government than you, as, to me, it seems the individuals I have the least faith in seem to be drawn to government like moths to a flame.

Cavan ManIran Oil Bourse March Opening#13920312/13/05; 00:51:50

The Sunday Times - World

The Sunday Times December 11, 2005

Israel readies forces for strike on nuclear Iran
Uzi Mahnaimi, Tel Aviv, and Sarah Baxter, Washington

ISRAEL'S armed forces have been ordered by Ariel Sharon, the prime minister, to be ready by the end of March for possible strikes on secret uranium enrichment sites in Iran, military sources have revealed.
The order came after Israeli intelligence warned the government that Iran was operating enrichment facilities, believed to be small and concealed in civilian locations.

Iran's stand-off with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) over nuclear inspections and aggressive rhetoric from Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, who said last week that Israel should be moved to Europe, are causing mounting concern.

The crisis is set to come to a head in early March, when Mohamed El-Baradei, the head of the IAEA, will present his next report on Iran. El-Baradei, who received the Nobel peace prize yesterday, warned that the world was "losing patience" with Iran.

SmeagolText...ssometimes we hates it!#13920412/13/05; 01:00:09

"You opined that perhaps gold would be "allowed" (your emphasis) to trade in a vacuum (my reference to a market sans any inherent characteristics that define a (any) market)."

Ssss... Ssir R Powell, wethinks we have obfusscated the issue rather than clearing it up, by an oblique tongue-in-cheekses comment. We ssees we have done you a disservice and we ssincerely apologizes. ~8-(

In our humble opinion, "Gold" IS trading in a vacuum right now, along with many other things.

Perhaps we views the definitions of trading and market differently precious, than you...ssince Smeagol never goes to...sss...the casino (long/short/futures/options/puts/calls...).

We call a trade an exchange of things between two (or more) parties:

"We commit to trade this for that"; items are placed on the barrel-head, sso to sspeak...and exchange occurs.

What ssome call NOT trading, but a PROMISE to trade which is never fulfilled...ssuch "trading" does not have to involve completing the trade - by delivery:

"We commit to trade this for that, but not immediately. Let us meet again in the future to see if we really want to go through with this, or put it off further. In the meanwhile we will compensate each other at regular intervals for the difference in value of the things we are going to trade, and other parties may assume or trade other things for our commitment."; exchange may never occur. In this arrangement, the "this and that" may never be placed on the barrel-head, but the market assumes they exist as it awaits eventual completion of the trade. "This and that" may or may not exist.

We calls a market a place where you go to exchange.

We never goes to the "market" where there is no metal-gold for exchange - where one can "ssell" or "buy" as much "gold" as one wants, where "It" is traded but never has to be delivered! Ssss! Nothing-gold, vacuum-gold, trades in that empty-tricksy place, where the price of "It" does not have to match the true price of It.

The gold-market that poor Smeagol goes to is one of ssubstance. No vacuum there, O no precious. There we find metal-gold on the shelf that we can trade FOR...not ON...or IN. Because we wants - not paper, not credit-numbers - no, we wants It!

In the one hand...timely deliveries of It with EACH and EVERY the true price of It, at any moment.

In the other hand... indeterminate amounts of "It" in undelivered limbo, dilutes the true price of It at any moment because there appears to be more of It available than there is.

Now, in the real world mix the two together...and we gets the pickle we are in today.

We knows It will always the sense that It will always be exchanged physically...for other matter what.

As for politics, yesss that can influence It - by directly influencing supply and demand both of physical metal... and allowing gold-doppel-gangers to grow to monstrous
proportions. No cartels or consspiracies required - a ssimple desire to get ssomething for nothing, or control - by parties on all sides - provides all that is needed.

What we sees...from a limited vantage, is that gold-metal in a growing number of places, is having...sss...resstrictions (including taxes)... lessened, not increased. O, no, It's not free yet. Not now... maybe not ever, precious, by the definition of that wonderful and much-misused word. But It looks like It is headed that way at least.

Always looking for more light on these matters ourselfs,


BelgianAsian POG spike...#13920512/13/05; 01:53:35

Yen exchange rate decline (forced infla) as an export present into the other currencies. Money must flow back into the Nikkei. Pressure on China.
GoldiloxGold "trading in a vaccuum"#13920612/13/05; 04:22:45

I do not understand what is meant by this phrase.

Also, I keep hearing that the "official POG" doesn't reflect the "real POG," but so far, every gold dealer I frequent is still using the COMEX spot price as their reference. Sure, they add a couple points of "spread", but that hasn't changed appreciably in the last five years.

What am I missing?

KnallgoldGold in the media#13920712/13/05; 05:16:04

I'm glad to see that media appears to better informed about the Gold topic,my brother told me he read that Gold is up because CB buying by SA,Rusia,China;there are other similar reports.Just yesterday I saw in one newspaper the advice to buy bullion coins,mentioned all the different coins and even went on to give the buy/sell spreads and called UBS a bit greedy in that regard...yeah the bullion banks have still a lot to learn about CUSTOMER SERVICE.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Especially designed for those who are taking their first step...#13920812/13/05; 07:17:12">gold ownership starter kit
HenriMthirsty1#13920912/13/05; 07:33:29

So I am not alone in this affliction. Here is the strategy I have developed to thwart this problem. I buy a small amount of gold paper stock...the price goes down...then I buy physical and a bit of stock to refresh my ammo.
Buongiorno!Whew!#13921012/13/05; 07:59:37

Volatility....Gold climbed from the 520 area to 540, then back down to about 523---now appears to be gathering for another assault on 540! (Read this quickly, before events prove me wrong!) The P &F charts can not keep up. This could qualify as a "quick and dirty correction"--and I do not mind the quick thing one little's just the other part....

GalearisAg#13921112/13/05; 08:23:26

Seeing silver sold down that way is something we have gotten used to. But all the precious metals were sold off.

Note that even with the paper damage yesterday to silver (we may see it go back up
today,,,or down again more), it probably doesn't matter even in the shorter
term because the O.I. for the December delivery months seems to be RISING.
Assume new buyers are jumping on even as they watch POS plummet. Bottom of the channal is around $7.25. Bill Murphy's "stalker" will be ecstatic! This may be the final battle.

This tank was done with naked shorting,,,not leased metal. I haven't looked today to see if this is still the case,,,but it is apparent that these folks doing the dirty having gone in for the penny too often, have no option but to go for the pound. Delay is the game - with only one end in sight. (Assuming the government authorities do not step in.)

If this was about a paper profit then the March delivery month would be the
time to buy for,,,,as the price is likely going to be higher,,,, But since
these folks are buying NOW, then assume it is about going for metal. O.I. still over 1400 contracts.

Yesterday was a minor battle about paper positions. The real prize is still
the underlying asset. One group is fighting for a way of life,,,a
"financialized" market,,,,and the other group is going for a physical
market. The physical market will win in the end and paper will burn. Even if there is only one ounce left! Physical will be king.

So the Dec O.I. should be watched carefully.



Smeagol #13921212/13/05; 08:55:13

Yess, SSir Goldilox, it is not the besst phrase, we used it only to illusstrate the absence of gold in some "trades".
osa104csimple time#13921312/13/05; 09:33:36

The "vacuum" sucks out all the crap, ie: paper, thus all that is left is the precious....EM? in a vacuum 101?
Flatliner@R Powell -- Freegold search#13921412/13/05; 10:34:31

I am glad that you continue to pursue the Freegold concept. I will follow with interest. Fwiw, perhaps, a Freegold market is a physical only market? What if, one day, people are no longer willing to buy something that is not owned -- unallocated? What if, one day, the 20+ to 1 ratio provided in the paper markets provides no real value? What if, the promise to deliver gold in the future is broken? What if, those that sell oil only take gold in exchange? I will continue to read and watch. Thank you for driving this issue.

Oh, one other thing. At one point I wondered why Central Banks didn't just buy up all the gold in the world. I mean, if it's so valuable, and, if you consider the interest that they collect on all that money created out of thin air, it would be a very easy thing for them to do. At the same time, if a government (an organized group of people rather then we the free honest people) creates a law that allows naked short selling and that same organization can create money out of thin air, it stands to reason that they *could* sell as much paper gold as they wanted. What pain could that loss cause? (It was free money.) Now, if you combine the two, Central Banks are chartered to make it look like there is no inflation, but, they are given the right to create as much money as they want -- out of thin air, it seems to me that the right to create money out of thin air is *way* more valuable then owning gold. Thus, the motive is to take looses buy selling paper gold in the markets and use all the other money to do what you will with it. But, I could have it all wrong here. I'm just speculating, publicly.

My hope is that the Freegold concept realizes this.

I also believe that the Freegold concept can not come into its full right until people stop buying paper gold. But, there is a problem here. Not only can the price of gold be adjusted downward by the selling of paper gold in the markets, but it can also be adjusted up by the buying of paper gold in the markets. Those who can take unlimited loses can play either side of the equation.

So, if it *is* true that it's manipulated, I would claim that the price of gold is exactly what the manipulators want.

Where is the hope of a free market? This is the puzzling part of the situation for me and, I believe, that the answer might be in the hands of the physical gold holder, but I am still not sure. Or, it may land on the concept of value. I'm leaning towards the concept of value at this point.

At this point I watch. If people lose confidence in the paper markets, people will exit them. If they do, we might see the paper market acting different then the physical market. Could that happen? I don't know. It would be interesting to see. If the manipulators can continue to hide how they play to not spook the people, the physical market may forever be linked to the paper market. But, I am skeptical. I lean towards a rouge event unleashing the will of the people towards hard assets. If that demand for hard assets dries up the physical market, the house of cards falls apart (this might explain actual physical releases that happen from big players in order to keep the illusion alive).

But once again, I am just guessing here. I am not expert. I will watch and listen.

mikalDollar inflation to lead the pack?#13921512/13/05; 10:57:05

U.S. Money Printing to Continue - Marc Faber - 12/12/05
Snippit: "So, I would gradually move some funds out of dollar assets into the Euro, Swiss franc and Yen and even better continue to accumulate gold, silver and platinum."
Not bad advice but staying away from speculative paper and commodities leaves gold and maybe silver IMO. Especially as competitive currency devaluation and foreign central bank currency expansion exceeds historical precedent.
On the other hand, a "diversified" portfolio might contain the above recommendation, with Canadian or US bonds, energy trusts, shares or any of a number of foreign and domestic investments considered as conservative and income generating or sspeculative or highly leveraged.
Or as in my case, a mix of bullion, numismatic and semi-numismatic gold and silver coin may float your boat.

YGMThe Word "Freegold" #13921612/13/05; 10:59:16

Used in the context as it is constantly around here is a TOTAL Misnomer IMHO. Gold was never free, never will be free and will never trade free of some form (old or new) of control, manipulation, commissions or influence of Gov't regulations. The only freedom Gold has is the ability to be blackmarketed and our freedom to hide it away from prying eyes. Nothing is 'Free' in life, not even Freedom itself.

mis…no…mer (mĭs-nÙ'mər)
An error in naming a person or place.

Application of a wrong name.
A name wrongly or unsuitably applied to a person or an object.

SmeagolSsplashing...#13921712/13/05; 11:32:13

Maybe the application of yet more analogy will help... or further muddy the water. (grin)

Real gold has a price...think of that as an "snapshot image" of It's perceived worth at any moment. Paper "gold", is a "copy" price-image of the real thing - until delivery. Until delivery they are nearly the ssame. Today the market sees these two images superimposed - they match nicely at sseveral points...right now.

At ssome time, according to what we reads in the Archives, these two images will be forced to sseparate as physical gold deliveries fail, and each image will then be seen for what it really real, one imaginary. What will each be worth then?

You can trade It all day...millions of tonnes... IF no one takes delivery. And lots of money will change hands, O yess, ssome will profit from this game...we makes no misstake about that!

(We sees >SSOME< parallels with the real casino game called "craps", where only one player bets, and others place bets on the outcome. We think of physical gold holders as being ssimilar to the player holding the dice in this game. Many players...all with money on the line...lots of money changing hands...only one rolling the dice - and his bet is not determined by the others.)

If delivery were called for on every trade beginning today...THEN you would shortly see fireworks worthy of a Wizard!

We agrees with Ssir YGM - the word "freegold" is easily misunderstod.


ZhishengDown into the Close.#13921812/13/05; 11:41:36

Hi Gandalf and all! Been away for quite awhile.

Seems like things are the same, and different. Gold keeps rising in a zigzag fashion, but this time the high was greater than usual.

The correction seems to have begun, but the question is whether the unusual rise this time around indicates an unusual fall before the next phase up.

Enthusiasm motivates one answer, and past experience another.


Smeagol "Freegold" definition marker needed#13921912/13/05; 12:12:08

Who was it that firsst came up with that word, and in what context did they use it? Looks like everyone here could use an easy-to-find "Trail marker" on that one.


BelgianWTO - Hong Kong#13922012/13/05; 12:43:47

This planet has not yet >>> *** FREE TRADE ***. The notion of unfree trade is much easier understood than unfree gold.

But if an expanding - globalizing world wants to become wide trade should become much freeer !!!

Those who believe that the globalization will stop and reverse, are right in sticking to the conviction that unfree trade...and unfree gold... will stay.

And as long as the ECB's concept of "marked to market" of gold, systemathically stays out of one's considerations about will always be looking on the wrong side of gold's future. So be it.

Flatliner@ marked to market#13922112/13/05; 13:27:37

Belgian, I do look forward to your posts. It seems that your posts have grown terse lately. I do hope that all is well in your world.

"Marked to market" is a great concept. I appears noble of the ECB to do this. It seems like a great step for how the world could come to understand value in the financial system moving forward. The problem is that I have a hard time extending trust to the ECB -- or to any banking organization. Being a skeptic, I would guess that this ëmarked to market' concept weighs heavily in their advantage and that they may have already moved their pieces into the proper position to make this happen (read, take advantage of the move).

Maybe the collection of European banks have already cornered the market and they are instigating a carefully thought out strategy buy which they gain world dominance over the US Fed (and all other banks). I couldn't say which organization would be better off in the lead position.

On the flip side, if the collection of European banks did have the market cornered and they did want to really take advantage of their physical gold holdings, I would think that they would want to raise the price -- to the moon. If they did, people (general folks in society) might tend to feel that their system of currency exchange was backed by something that has actual value. The currency that they manufacture (out of thin air) might find stability in world markets. Maybe, but I'm just guessing. I've been known to guess wrong.

On the bright side, if the ECB does get their way exposing the value of their holdings by valuing their physical gold holdings to the market, it brings hope to the little guy that buys an ounce. It would make logical sense that little ounce would be valued higher.

As I see the volatility of the physical market gyrate, and suspect that it does so because it's tied to the paper market and that the paper market appears to operate in a managed fashion, I can't help but smile and hope for the little guy that holds physical.

R PowellSmeagol#13922212/13/05; 13:36:45

Correct you are, we both define trading differently. I understand your position of holding physical only, and believe it is a great idea....

But, always a does trade in the paper casino, along with a great number of other commodities. This is a fact regardless of what we may think of it.

I'll stick with trying to figure out how the economics of this world work, as the world is rather than how things might be...whether better or worse. Thanks for reply, even though I've heard the "buy physical only...the paper market is evil" speech ad nauseam.

Smeagol We has no problem at all...#13922312/13/05; 15:06:39

...with paper contracts involving It... and other things... as long as they are for delivery, and delivery occurs - in a timely manner (unless things like natural disasters for crops, etc., intervene). THAT kind of contract is a useful tool facilitating trade nowadays.

If one merely wants to BET on the PRICE of It, THAT kind of contract should - right up front - not be deleverable, period.

We too, watch things as they are, not what we think they should be... end of our rant for now. ~;-)


BelgianPaper gold versus physical gold :#13922412/13/05; 15:11:27

In an ever expanding "- DEBT -" world, paper gold will remain dominant, as gold's pricer. A very good reason to stick to paper-gold trading.

Who doubts that this debt-world can go on for ever !? What will happen before the global debt becomes all embracing ?
Will the gold traders continue to trade paper gold ? Or shall a rising physical gold trade gradually dwarf the paper gold trade...and...BECOME THE NEW DOMINATOR of the gold valuation ?

The ever rising debt load has so far remained credible in perception because of the dominant function of paper gold trade that has contained gold's price and hidden its real value. The world's giants know that this concept is finite.
Has nothing to do with "noblesse" or any kind of -deliberate- "cornering".
The ever rising debt monster is the main reason for increased carry trades + their hedges.

The debt fenomenon will be neutralized with the revaluation of gold, which can only happen when paper gold trading dominance is overtaken by physical gold trade, which is an as free gold trade we can possibly get, versus the unfree paper gold trading.

The present permanent debt proliferation cannot be inflated or deflated away, anymore !!! Soon, the permanent increasing carry trades + hedging derivatives will super dwarf the entire physical economies.

What's wrong with advocating physical gold in possession and at the same time express extreme worry about paper gold trading ...GIVEN THE PRESENT (and future) CIRCUMSTANCES !?

Unfortunately we don't have a "giant" on board of this forum (that I'm aware of). Otherwise, I would like to ask him if he could get a couple of hundred tonnes of gold, DELIVERED !!! The answer would be definitely > NO !
Have we already forgotten WHY the answer is no ?

R PowellFlatliner#13922512/13/05; 15:32:49

Your opinion here....

"Fwiw, perhaps, a Freegold market is a physical only market?"

I'll agree as I can not imagine any paper market without the market forces that are inherent in paper markets. But many (Belgian included) have opined that a "freegold" market must be one without these influences, including, I guess, hedging and speculation.

So, I'm going to conclude, as has YGM, that this "freegold" will never happen, unless some event(s) transpire so that gold is only traded not traded (bad connotation for the buy only physical crowd)...bought and a transaction that must conclude with buyer taking immediate delivery of physical and payment-in-full paid at that time (no latter, or you've a delivery situation akin to paper trading). Unless someone can clarify the definition some more, I'll leave it at that, probably to the great relief of many. Thanks to all who have contributed to this discussion!

R PowellSmeagol#13922612/13/05; 16:12:39

Concerning a divergence of the paper POG and physical delivery POG you opined....

"At ssome time, according to what we reads in the Archives, these two images will be forced to sseparate as physical gold deliveries fail, and each image will then be seen for what it really real, one imaginary. What will each be worth then?"

I used to think that the daily closing price of any commodity is the price at that time. After years of watching I now tend to think that, if any one of these prices is THE (real, fairmarket, exactly right in accordance with supply/demand) price, it is so by happenstance. Market prices are always in flux, searching for that real price...and the daily closing price is the consensus of the total buying and selling pressure in that market. Many say the price is never wrong. I agree but also say that price is not an inherently real value price but is, instead, the price arrived at after balancing the buying + selling..This is a consensus price reflecting market players opinions. The price = market players opinions (bets, if you will). In that sense only, it is correct.

And yes, the physical market can and often does NOT coincide with the paper market. Spot copper has been higher than paper for some time now. Some coffee market prices also. Sometimes some paper markets in the world do not trade (correct use here) at the same numbers. There are those who make a living simply but buying and simultaneously selling the same item in different markets, pocketing the difference. This tends to keep the discrepancies to a minimum.

And, imho, the physical market is stronger than the paper market. Physical delivery prices ultimately determine that elusive, never quite correct, always changing paper price. But, it takes real physical demand to do so...or, as so many have stated, the longs must stand for physical delivery to overpower the paper traders. As always, just one poor man's opinion. Thanks again for the replies!

BTW, I saw you in the "Two Towers" movie this past weekend, leading Frodo into Mordor. Great flick! I'm now waiting for "The Return of the King".

R PowellSmeagol#13922712/13/05; 16:26:26

Have you considered the fact that speculation (those buying or selling who do NOT intend to take or make delivery of a physical item) is necessary for market liquidity? Most markets (remember these markets include many crops and foodstuff) would be handcuffed if it were only possible to buy when an equal amount of the item were being bought (and vice versa).

Speculation is to commodities (tangibles) what mortgage lending is to housebuying. Where would the housing market be without speculative money lent for home buyers? How many could save up the total purchase price of a home?
I realise you view speculative (non-delivery) trading as an evil, perhaps so and perhaps not but it is necessary or almost all markets would seize up immediately. Instant economic meltdown that would put us back into the economy of the middle ages, imho, of course.

R PowellBelgian#13922812/13/05; 16:34:14

Interesting concept that debt will be monetized or collateralized through a revaluation of the POG. The debt is too big to ever be paid, so it must be monetized somehow. It's just a question of how and when.

Your words here....

"What's wrong with advocating physical gold in possession and at the same time express extreme worry about paper gold trading ...GIVEN THE PRESENT (and future) CIRCUMSTANCES !?"

My response, absolutely nothing wrong. Imho, I believe it's good advice. Silver too!

Galearis@ Rich, re paper gold separating from the real#13922912/13/05; 17:07:57

Please read what is at the end of the link.

I have queried the author about what was said concerning taking delivery of metal bought on the spot market but have yet to get a reply. The article discusses the perils of allocated and unallocated gold held in bullion banks. He states that 99% of these spot market purchases remain in the unallocated state,,,which means that they actually remain as an asset on the b.b.s books and can be used by that bank if their is a "solvency difficulty". I do not know whether this metal can be used to underpin other transactions in paper gold or not (I would guess/hope that the auditors and banking laws would have SOME sense of right and wrong in this regard) but what the author was basically saying here was that this unallocated gold is just another financialized" notation in a ledger book whereby the buyer has paid his money and received nothing in return.

He really is not in possession of it unless he pays the bar charges etc, etc, and holds it in his hot and sweaties!

And THAT means that this unallocated gold is NOT removed from supply! That makes the workings of the spot market a curious sham indeed. We almost got caught in this too which is why I posted that bit a couple of days ago. Our broker (and a most prestigious one at that) turned out to be basically a crook.

So much for the spot market!

I hope for better clarification that there wasn't just a semantic problem with the piece.

But, if these spot market buyers are this naive,,,,

Why not just buy a silver or gold certificate?



LeSinEURO - GOLD - OIL - IRAN#13923012/13/05; 17:11:23

The real story is that by March 2006 Iran is threatening to have in place an entity called the Iranian Oil Bourse. Trading of Oil on this exchange will be denominated in -- yes you guessed it -- Euros. A well choreographed play from Saddam's little black book of game day strategies. The Iranian Oil Bourse will go toe to toe and compete for global prominence with NYMEX in New York and the International Petroleum Exchange in London. Oil trading on these exchanges is done in US Dollar terms. That is why when we hear a quote given for Oil it is always basis the US Dollar. Oil is the lifeblood of the global economy, the US Dollar is the global reserve currency and Oil is quoted in US Dollar terms. A simple 1-2-3 argument.

But this simple 1-2-3 argument may be about to come under attack. A successful start-up of trading operations on this Bourse could lead to an erosion of the US Dollar.


Mthirsty1Thank you #13923112/13/05; 17:17:22

Thank you for the advise Henri.Maybe i jumped into the fire with to much paper money.I know it's crazy but i sit here and blame myself for the price going down.
Flatliner@ R Powell how and when#13923212/13/05; 17:37:17

I, too, find Belgians comment interesting. Given his confidence, I've tried to draw a picture of how it might be monetized through revaluation. But, I must warn that these are fictitious numbers and may not reflect reality in any way.

With that said, if gold were to go to, say, (in your best Dr. Evil) about ë1,000,000 dollars' an ounce, the US could settle it's current 800 billion worth of deficit with China with about 800,000 ounces or about 22 tonnes. GATA claims that there might be around 8136 tonnes in the US treasury that is said to be in deep storage. Using the same insanity, if there are a 100 trillion dollars worth of obligations outstanding for the US, that same $1,000,000 price would tally out at about 100 million ounces, or about 2857 tonnes (used 35,000 ounces per tonne).

Afterwards, there would still be gold in the US treasury of perhaps, 5000 tonnes. If you then use that as 10% reserves, as all the other Central Banks seem to be running towards, you can print a boat load of money.

Now, trying to forget these numbers, if gold were to be revalued to be useful for this purpose, the revaluing would have to be substantial. If it happened overnight, I would expect every short in every paper market would have to file bankruptcy in order to get out if their obligation. Likewise, every paper long would most likely also not be filled due to the same reason. It would make sense that if you can't predict the day, or time period, in which this may occur, you'd want to be in physical to really enjoy the ride.

But, I can not predict the future, I can only make guesses and watch what happens.

The CoinGuyRussia Mark to Market....#13923312/13/05; 17:51:31

Nice of them to change their mark-to-market level for the New Year. From $300 to:

"The change in statistical methods is linked to the need to bring published data into line with market realities."

Best Regards,


R PowellGalearis #13923412/13/05; 18:19:51

Perhaps an example of a market whose paper price is conforming to physical demand might be copper. Jmho here, the contrary opinion, as so many analysts still argue....the price run might be ..could be...mostly speculation. Some say copper is overvalued as auto and housing sales will decline bigtime. Others, of course disagree. I am amoung those who disagree as I believe copper is reflecting global demand, not just our domestic auto + housing markets possible slowdown. Any market with a rising price attracts speculation which eventually bleeds out. If demand is real, the speculative money bleeds out after the price tops out...usually after the higher prices have stimulated more supply...once again changing the balance of supply/demand into an oversupplied market which will cause lower prices ...once more discouraging supply. But you know all this.

I mention it as I believe this real physical demand is the trigger that any market must have to see higher prices. Long side investor sentiment is caused by higher prices but speculative only moves are short lived ones with no lasting power and no real substance, they are usually technical in nature + conform to the chartreaders theories, often self-fulfilling. Longs holding for delivery and even longs holding + taking possession of physical won't happen by itself. There must be commercial physical demand first. When I mentioned delivery, I did mean physical consumed (or taken + hoarded which also takes metal out of available supply).

Metals are hard to read as opposed to other items where the marketing year end supply is clear, new production relatively easy to estimate and yearly demand the same. Physical metal often flows from producer to consumer without passing through any exchange. This also may/will be one main reason why silver has the price potential that we believe she does, no?

And yes, naked shorting does exist in commodities, whether the physical exists in the warehouses or not. Real physical demand + a shortage felt by those who need the physical for commerce is what really raises prices. So many say the shorts will never be able to repay but for almost all legitimate paper players, shorts can/will/must be covered and it is done, with $$ paper. There is no shortage of money...which is what short covering is all about. I refer here to legitimate (tho some say no exchanges are!) futures and derivative exchanges, not OTC or other clandestine markets. I also question as hard to verify claims that tonnes + tonnes of physical have been borrowed, consumed + must be repaid in kind (physical metal) in OTC or other obscure markets. It's all a monetary paper game... more real physical demand than the producers can supply is what creates real bull markets. Speculation, at that point, only supercharges the affair. As always, jmho.

Along this same line of reasoning, perhaps now or over the next few trading days, we will get a better idea of how much demand for physical has been moving gold + silver. And, especially for silver, how much of this last upside was speculative only. How much was caused by demand for delivery (consumption!) of physical. If there is real demand, the downturn may be sudden + severe but should also be halted very shortly by buying from those who need product + by those who know this. Wouldn't it be nice to know or be able to recognize a real demand driven upside move that will have staying power + great bull potential, as opposed to the more common speculative price upswings? I believe gold has shown itself to be a demand driven market, it may last for many years....but what of our silver??

R PowellFlatliner#13923512/13/05; 18:38:25

Any financial event that could alter the POG (paper, physical or whatever price) so drastically as you describe in 139232, would totally paralyze ALL world markets, I would say. So, I shouldn't at that time, worry whatsoevr about the paper gold market, I'd worry about my next meal + not freezing to death.

Buying physical gold + holding the same in one's own possession is a great idea for many reasons. We don't have to equate them with doom + gloom.

Mthirsty, don't get upset with the POG's ups and downs. All markets go up and down. If it is a bull + will remain such, which it has proven itself to be, you'll be fine. But maybe price appreciation, although nice!, isn't the only reason for ownership.
Maybe if gold is too expensive for your budget as it is for mine, you might think of buying silver. Just a thought...silver, "the metal with more ounces for your dollar (grin), it's not just for silverware anymore!" Our host sells only the finestkind silver. Buy it by the pound! And take physical delivery...IN HAND ONLY!!!!! NO PAPER ACCEPTED!!!!!! (g)

SmeagolConssiderations...#13923612/13/05; 19:00:29

We are glad you liked the movie, precious. Wait until you see the part in the third one where ------ ! ~>8-)

"Have you considered the fact that speculation (those buying or selling who do NOT intend to take or make delivery of a physical item) is necessary for market liquidity?"

Yess we has, and we think markets need liquidity, not sspeculation. We make a disstinction, precious... between a capitalisst who takes a legitimate rissk to make a loan to uss so that we can mine It, or bring in a crop, and someone who merely places leveraged bets. The capitalisst may
not intend to take delivery - but they expects a reasonable return for rissking their capital. Fine. We uses the "liquidity" the loan provides, to do what we needs to in the meantime to bring It, or whatever, to market. We make contracts to ssell -deliver- It, or the crop, and others contract to buy -take delivery of- It or the crop. All is well and good, yess?

Where is a pure sspeculator necessary in that?

Meanwhile, that pure sspeculator sspeculates...SAYS they wants to buy...or SAYS they has, to ssell...outside of our little, two, ten times as much of what we are bringing to market that year! How can we expect to determine the REAL price of It, or our crop, in that scenario? Esspecially when the sspeculator never delivers or buys anything but jusst keeps "rolling over" his positions, year over year? He is not rissking his own gold or goods, like the miner or farmer...but he IS affecting their markets.

"Speculation is to commodities (tangibles) what mortgage lending is to housebuying. Where would the housing market be without speculative money lent for home buyers?"

And look what has happened, precious. The homeowners, have gotten used to...sss...that artificial sspeculative (and fiat) liquidity, and now rely on it. They have come to think it is normal. Businesses and homeowners now borrow their entire futures to have what would have taken nearly a lifetime to Burning a year's candles for a bright exisstence today, and not thinking about next one HAS to worry...or ssave...anymore. Everything, greased with liquidity, is running much much fasster than normal. good?

Markets can be unnaturally affected - up or down - by purely sspeculative trading. Whether there is a benefit, we guesses, lies behind the eyes of each beholder. We votes for the sstable mean - which we are far from now... but to which we will ssurely revert one day.

We gives up. Go ahead, world...rack up those fiat credits. Create all the liquidity you want. If most of it ends up pricing It someday like the Freegolders ssay, sso much the better for them that has It in hand.


SmeagolSsir Mthirsty1#13923712/13/05; 19:20:02

Welcome to the fray, precious...and congratulations, on your recent acquisition of It! Think LONG TERM when you thinks of It. We assumes you used a paper currency to buy It. Look at a LONG TERM chart of the value of that currency, then look at a LONG TERM chart of the price of It in that currency - preferably an inflation adjussted one. Then you can sleep LONG and peacefully with It under the pillow! ~|-)

David LinkleyCentral Banks retreating?#13923812/13/05; 19:28:41

The latest commentary from Reg Howe
CamelGiant sucking sound#13923912/13/05; 19:32:46

I think one would have to agree that there was a pre- conceived plan on the part of the European financial elite to bring the Euro into existence , and that part of that plan was to supplant, to some degree, the US dollar as the chosen investment vehicle.. ..Multi -decadal economic warfare between Old Europe and the US.... multi-century more like it.

Old Europe , the remnants of the Landed Aristocracy that prevailed for hundreds of years, more commonly held some of it's wealth in Gold. Gold that "does lay very still" to quote Another.

Any way, this group of people has really been on a roller coaster ride over the last 35 years. with gold going from 35 an ounce to 850 then back down to 250- They are feeling pretty good right now. And India. I wonder how much of the gold cube they own.Presumably all this buying that they do goes back several centuries. They are probably feeling much more wealthy .The Arabs are said to own a lot of gold, but no one seems to know how much.. The Russians ,the Chinese etc. Gold was" freed "once in 1970 to find its value in dollars as Nixon repudiated gold redeemability. Why not again.

If gold goes up from here they will all be sitting pretty , capturing the value of the dollars the Fed has been printing .The proverbial giant sucking sound of the purchasing power of the dollar being transmuted into gold. Of course they are hoping ,if not conspiring ,for the dollar value of gold to go up.

So is the gold market suppressed here by some shadowy group of secret government agents, even the giant banks that make up the Fed.? I didn't think they were that smart , but who knows.

R PowellSmeagol Mining Co#13924012/13/05; 19:46:43

What if The Smeagol Goldmining Co. finally gets production up and running just fine and, although running on shoestring, finally produces a small truckload of fine 10 ounce bars, 1000 in all. These are trucked to the physical market but only Gandalf, Aristotle and OvS are there. Collectively, they buy only four bars (the wizard buying two as he has perfected his method of turning straw into sawbucks) but has temporarily created a tremendous shortage of straw in the kingdom.)

Gandolf is sympathic to Smeagol's poor sales but notes that the kingdom's central bank bought last Tuesday and only buys every three months. They bought all YGM had to sell, and paid dearly for it too, as there were no other sellers that day, so they had to pay twice the going rate! However, the wiz offers to take three more bars, if he can deliver payment at a latter date, while muttering something about the stupid straw supplier, and if only he could get a steady, reliable straw supply....and know in advance what the price of straw would be! Will the Smeagol company deliver gold on a delayed payment basis? Gandolf agrees to pay only five percent now..."as margin" he says.

What is the Smeagol Mining Co. to do. Apparently all the farmers in the knigdom only buy gold bars once a year...because they only have disposable income once a year...right after harvest. That, of course, is the only time they can sell their crops, as there is no liquidity to sell at any other time of the year, as there are no promisary (paper) markets. Harvest is months away. If only the farmers could "lock-in" a good profit now (prices for crops are sky high now as last year's stores are almost gone), and perhaps then, knowing that a good profit was assured, they would buy some gold. But, they explain, they can not sell now as selling is not permitted without delivery! And, they wail, at harvest time there is so much crop that the prices drop drastically....most have no money to buy Smeagol's gold and those who do have some money left from last harvest are afraid to spend it for worry of the low harvest prices coming. And what now of the bills to be paid for the initial investment capital borrowed to operate the mine. Some gold must be all costs!!! Or, is that at whatever price the bars will fetch delivery is cash on the barrelhead only..... and no one has any extra cash today?

What of the rest of the kingdom's folk? Will they buy Smeagol's gold? No, they reply, as they have run out of the food they bought at last year's harvest. Most do not have enough storage space to keep the food for a year's time and so they have to buy from Scrooge McStorage's store and Scrooge has raised his prices so high, knowing that no other food seller could hedge any of their product cost (and thus they bought only a limited supply in the cash + carry only market) and he is the only supplier left.

Ah, thinks Smeagol, perhaps Scrooge will buy my gold. But alas, Scrooge just laughs at Smeagol and instead offers to buy the whole Smeagol Mining Co...but for only a pittance of its value..."10 cents on the dollar" cries Scrooge. And if you don't take my offer, I'll buy it from the bank after they foreclose!

Poor Smeagol Mining Co! What is to be done? How can Smeagol save his precious gold producing company...which he has worked so hard to get up and running....but the bank loans are due....??
to be continued

ToolieFreegold#13924112/13/05; 19:48:02

Let's try this Another way.

We'll ingore all advise and build a wall around the US. NOTHING may pass though this wall.

The price of beans and corn will rise and fall, and people will seek to wager on these moves and protect themselvs against such price swings.

But what would be the motivation to bet on the dollar? The dollar is how wealth is measured. Would there be a currency market? What is the dollar measured against?

Now let us tear down the wall. All things may pass borders.

Now the dollar must compete. But against what? We are a world in need of a standard, a home base for accumulted wealth. Where is that home base?

Gold naturally.

Randy-- Hope I've not cost you a nickle toward that elusive cup of coffee.

David LinkleyLooks like 2006 is starting early#13924312/13/05; 20:01:12

The dollar is beginning to look very sick over the past week. Fasten your seatbelts, put on your crash helmet and please get some gold while you can.
R PowellButler on silver#13924412/13/05; 20:31:56

just an off the wall thought: Maybe Ted has been so sucessful at selling the silver "to da moon" theory that he has created not only the physical buying that he advocates but also has created a huge long position on Comex. But for every contract must be sold...and since there isn't anywhere near enough physical to cover all those buyers....their buying had to be filled by naked short selling....(g) But the day may come when there isn't enough (even non-existent) silver left for sale at current prices (no one is inclinded to sell) then the price will rise until the sellers appear again...price rationing. But if it's real physical demand that's called for...then bigtime price rationing! Meanwhile we can blame Ted Butler for this huge short selling situation.
Silver BC BN

SmeagolDue diligence IS required in markets#13924512/13/05; 20:47:12

Ach! Ssir Rich! How... how DID you ever guess how the third movie ends?!? =8-0

We appreciates your 'flipsside'. We also accepts it for the reality that it is...bad things can and do happen...but given the conditions you sset for the minimal demand for It in the kingdom, do you think we would have even sstarted up "Smeagold Mining" in the firsst place... on ssuch a grand sscale... or that anyone would have rissked venturing capital for it? Come now, precious...


MatthewPrice fluctuations, investments and tax.#13924612/13/05; 20:54:50

Great thread!
I have learnt a lot from this site, and thanks to USA Gold for their sponsorship. I am afraid that I cannot support them with a purchase however, as I live in the UK, but I would certainly do so if the geography were different. Overseas ordering, postage and two sets of customs make for trouble in my book, but I would urge all that can to purchase. There were some good coin sets recently.
It was interesting to see silver fall 7=>8% over a couple of days. If a major stock did this, front page news?
I was wondering whether there would be a correction of sorts, a la April 2004. Ted Butler stated recently that the short positions were at 250 million ounces...40% annual global mine supply. What chance delivery of this amount? Ouch, if the price stays around $8.50+! Maybe letting some steam out will allow these people to close before the big push? Why else sell now, the fundamentals are good and the Silver Users Association seems to be getting worried, so much so that they have made themselves and their views very public over Barclays proposed ETF.
Would this imply that the Ag (& Au?) market is still controlled and we have yet to see free trade? In which case the recent increase in precious metal values is part of the grand scheme, which I firmly believe exists; (bullion banks historically short on gold, plunge protection team, caribbean hedge funds etc etc..).
On a practical note, aside from holding physical gold, how will everyone make ready to profit from the coming silver & gold boom? My take is gold being the last bubble, rising to an incredible value to counter the global debt situation before floating down over a number of years as the markets re establish themselves. Even Mr Greenspan wrote of the dollar being linked to gold, I guess they have to wait for the correct PoG first.
I agree that physical holding, preferably personally, is a must. I am loathe to trust safe depositories etc.., when the going gets tough they might be tempted....say no more!
In the UK, there is no sales tax (VAT) on gold BUT there would be capital gains tax on profitable sale of bullion, not much fun at up to 40%. New silver purchase attracts VAT at 17.5%.
I have read on this site discussions regarding the possibility of a gold snatch similar to 1933 in the US; while this might occur, tax is a certainty and I would appreciate opinions on this before it becomes a major issue, i.e. the Inland Revenue (or IRS) wakes up!
In the UK there may be a loophole, however.
Coin of the Realm, i.e. gold Sovereigns or Britannias MAY be exempt from CGT. The inland revenue accepts sovereigns as payment against outstanding tax, so its status as CotR is bona fide.
I guess in an inflationary environment CGT on sovereigns could be countered with the loss in value of paper money written off against it, thus everyone would follow this and the Government would lose more from this than the tax gained from the gold bugs. An analagous situation exists with cars, no CGT on rare vintage car appreciation due to the potential of tax write off with regard to everyday cars.
In addition, EU law allows for up to 80% commission on the value of the gold in COTR coins, which is a big mark up in anyone's book.
A grey area; any opinions? What is the status in the US?

I have also used spread betting in the past; well up overall but a large loss in April 2004 on silver hurt! A lot!
I have been dithering of late; stocked up well on physical silver, pre 1947 coins so avoided VAT, but no spread betting.
Any other suggestions? A currency/financial collapse could happen at any time, I suppose, but in the meantime why not use the derivative tools of the Devil?
Final point....any thoughts on the US rigging the oil price to shore up the dollar? Every buck on a barrel creates a demand for $60million (80million barrels/day, 60million overseas demand). Not to mention the extra cash sloshing round OPEC countries, which just might find its way back to the US, eg. Saudi investment etc.. . It is little wonder that the developing countries are getting tired of this petro=dollar monopoly. The entire world is bailing the US out of its dollar crisis, read 1970s all over again. Will the Iranian oil bourse kick off? The straights of Hormuz are critical to global oil supply, and Abu Musa is bristling with anti ship missiles. First target, IMHO.

Many thanks to you all for your companionship and thoughts on numerous occasions; I hope my simple thoughts will stand up to the high standards of this forum.
Involuntary insomniac with young child and baby signing off.
Nothing like a young family to make one focus the mind on the future.

Regards to all,


Smeagoland we DID allow ssome paper in our little sscenario...#13924712/13/05; 21:06:43

...plenty enough to ssatisfy those directly involved.


SmeagolPart of a definition?#13924812/13/05; 21:15:12

Freegold =

1. Gold marked to market in all currencies.
2. Physical gold free to trade across all borders.
3. No taxes on gold in any exchange; workmanship fees/seigniorage allowed.


SmeagolWelcome Sssir Matt!#13924912/13/05; 21:23:37

The more eyes and ears this Table Round has 'round the world, the better we will all comprehend the ongoing saga...

"In addition, EU law allows for up to 80% commission on the value of the gold in COTR coins, which is a big mark up in anyone's book.

What does this mean, precious?


SmeagolFinancial Crisis Looming?#13925012/13/05; 21:41:22

Ssir Flatliner, did you include this in your US dollar-gold revaluation?

Financial Crisis Looming?
by Christopher Laird


"But there is more to this story. Take derivatives for example. They are leveraged financial contracts on practically everything in the world economy. And get this, they are creating derivatives on HOME PRICES in seven or so US metropolitan areas. So people can bet on the rise or fall of home prices and perhaps hedge this risk since, so many financial instruments are backed by home mortgages like asset based securities, GSE's like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage bundles. Derivatives are massive and unregulated. They are a great threat to yours and my financial life and could cause a USD crisis all by themselves. To outline more about why would take pages, but they are new, unstable and super leveraged and risky and amount to over 5 times world GDP or 260 trillion $ ! That is something for a new market since about 1990, eh?"


ski@ R. Powell #139244#13925112/13/05; 22:45:57

You concluded: "Meanwhile we can blame Ted Butler for this huge short selling situation."

My comment: Shame on you! You attack the most credible, modern-day messenger silver that silver has? Ted Butler has written over 200 essays on silver .... I've anxiously and thankfully read each one of them ....and NOT ONCE has anything self serving ever "come through" as you imply. Following your logic, you'd have everyone blaming him for higher silver prices going forward.

All in all, I suspect the above is one of the big reasons why well informed and capable PM analysts don't write more.

Guess you hit one of my few hot buttons....

Mthirsty1wife#13925212/13/05; 22:47:49

Smeagol,Flatliner,thank you for the support.I wish this thing would turn around.I bought in last Fri,at 551.00 per ounce,and have watched it drop more in 4 days that it has in the last 4 months.
PRITCHO@Mthirsty1 - - - Whats The Secret Then?#13925312/13/05; 22:57:22

- -- How did you pick the top so accurately :)
Don't cry about it --I guess u won't have to wait 3 yrs like I did before my Gold/silver made a profit.(because of a then strong Ozzi $). Relax -it will get well above your buy in price - -sooner than later.

GoldendomeHere's a corny story.#13925412/14/05; 00:13:49

Americans burning corn to cut heating costs

CHICAGO, Dec 9 (PG) - As US heating costs spiral to all-time highs, American homeowners are turning to burning corn in special stoves to reduce their energy bills.

Sales of corn-burning stoves have tripled this year and distributors across the country have been sold out for weeks.

"We are actually taking deposits for products for next fall - it's all you can do," said Ed Hiscox, owner of furnace retailer Hiscox Sales and Service in Valparaiso, Indiana, in the middle of the US corn belt.

"We have customers from very high-end homes to people who are not really in any financial condition at all. It doesn't seem to make a difference - everyone has problems with gas prices."
G-dome: This news snip reminded me that a friend had told me yesterday, that in his pellet stove, he is able to, and is now burning, shelled corn. "The wood pellets cost $120.00 a ton. The corn costs $90.00 a ton." He told me. Up to this year he had burned the wood pellets, but this year has switched to corn. He didn't know the BTU comparison, but said the corn burns well and puts out the same amount of heat (by feel) to him, and is easier to aquire.

Mthirsty1story#13925512/14/05; 00:50:01

Great story Goldendome.shows how much money you can save if you do your research.
Mthirsty1Timeline#13925612/14/05; 00:55:32

It is 1:00 my timezone.Why does the price of gold start going back up when everyone in the asleep?
BelgianStrong coffee...#13925712/14/05; 03:43:27

Price "trading" has indeed totally overwhelmed real "BUY and SELL".
This is the unique consequence of the - permanent decline - of the world $-numeraire's purchasing power !

Of course, there is absolutely nothing wrong with price-trading. But when price-trading completely overwhelms physical buying and selling...there definitely is something rotten in the global $-state. With the absolute dominance of price-trading (carry trades + derivative hedging)...w're going back to the middle ages...and NOT the other way around, dearest Rich !

That's exactly why I started BUYING physical gold and stopped trading the price of gold. Price-trading is increasingly (!!!) leading to losses, whilst BUYING and taking DELIVERY is leading to increased "wealth".

As an insignificant shrimp, I follow the "real", not so visible trends, as good as I possibly can understand their true nature and never tried to be smarter than those who have the power to deceive with "trillion-power"! I don't want to get "boxed" (KO) in the fenomenal price-trading trends.

That's what all the gold-action of the past decade is all about. The formation of a NEW gold trend...concept, moving away from price-trading to physical BUYING !!! Modern times are here again.

The "owners" (buyers) of goldmetal lost NOTHING with POG smashing down from $540 to $514. What about the goldprice-traders !? Goldmetal holders, who put all their eggs in the golden nest, saw the $-price of their metal double. How many (small) goldprice-traders can say (evidence) that they doubled their entire savings ? I stay 100% in goldmetal with my modest savings and so everybody knows exactly how I'm doing. Note that I'm talking about "savings" and not any kind of leveraged debt. Buying goldmetal and not borrow to play (sorry, trade) the goldprice...or the house prices...or the stock markets...or whatever.

The glorification of the debt-culture is reaching its end.

OvSMighty Thirsty One#13925812/14/05; 05:19:25

Lest's face it. YOU jinxed
the gold-market. Please
don't buy any more. SELL,
and it will turn around
with a vengance...Up and

mikalGold drivers#13925912/14/05; 06:18:00

Gold Prices "will soar to new high" - Gulf Daily News - December 14, 2005
Among the supply/demand issues touched on here
include a prediction of rising U.S. gold demand
similar to that which preceded Y2K in 1999. Such
fear would most likely translate into action among the more well-heeled a) if much higher POG b) if energy and debt-servicing costs continue upward c) as consumers become "tapped out" d) as inflation fears drive money towards alternatives e) as investors mimic successful foreign hedging strategies f) as gold fashion accents continue
to gain adherents g) as Hollywood continues the trend
toward traditional themes i.e. The Lion the Witch and the Wardrobe, The Chronicles of Narnia, The Hobbit et al

WhitewaterwomanPutting 'em on#13926012/14/05; 08:23:37

Looks like the naked ones have an opportunity to put on their shorts today! Too bad it's not summer anymore and shorts aren't a whole lot of good...everyone need some LONG pants, in a handsome golden color. ;)
mikalChina trade and the dollar-yuan exchange rates#13926112/14/05; 08:30:45

Yuan Gains, Revaluation Pressure to Ease - Xinhua/Reuters
Another mainstream story whose headline and reporter's slant
are contradicted by a careful reading.
Here as in similar reports over the past year or so, Chinese officials express a need for yuan revaluation and rebalancing of reserves and trade surplus.

GoldiloxOuch! Trade Figures Sour#13926212/14/05; 08:39:19


Just out from the Commerce Department, the latest on the balance of payments deficit. Watch this one because the consensus was that the number would shrink - not rise as it did - so this could be a real negative for the market today. Especially when you consider petroleum accounted for another billion or so of the gap.


George analyzes the growing Trade Deficit this morning.

Galearis@ Ski re Ted Butler latest#13926312/14/05; 08:53:02

Basically Ted Butler's argument for the process of manipulation in the silver market is completely plausible unassailable, irrefutable and as he says all of it VERY verifiable. Nevertheless, there will always be some who will not or cannot see it. Call it vagaries of human perceptions and there is nothing to be done about it. In fact it just keeps things interesting and the discussions flowing. (smile). It is only a problem if it is dishonest spin.

I enjoyed an email conversation with Ed Steer recently about the COMEX delivery situation and he too stated the obvious: that "all the roads to understanding lead back to Ted Butler" - he is the MAN and the pundit who is THE foundation to our wider understanding. I owe almost everything to Ted Butler in this regard.

But he does have his blind spots as we all do. Note how he points to gold's price rise and yet does not label it as a commodity. Then what is it? This is his blind spot and it applies to gold AND to silver. As a self-proclaimed "strictly a commodity guy" Ted does not relate well to things monetary.

His other blind spot is a MOST common one. He does not relate erosion of value in price due to inflation and currency market directions. (But the whole world of T.A. use also treats price as a constant over time.) And so what!

Given all that Ted Butler has given us,,,,as a gift to our understanding,,,,these are most insignificant gaps and easily compensated for from other sources. (He makes no excuses for them and is up front about how these areas are not a part of his worldview on the metals.) Metalbugs, after all, are a community and members of communities help each other.

His latest was a good (and timely) read too.

Regards and FWIW,


silverton3Dangers of technical trading.#13926412/14/05; 09:11:43

I have believed in the gold/worthless dollar concept for many years now, and have invested my tiny IRA in gold ETF's with apologies to those who believe you should only be holding the actual metal. (Its just not worth while for the size of my account).

When gold passed $500 recently, it just seemed too frothy, and ripe for a strong correction. It was also at the top of its rising channel. I therefore sold my position intending to buy back at a somewhat lower price. Alas, it skyrocketed further up, and now is still trading higher than where I sold.

As a long term gold bug, where do you reenter this market. Will we pull back below $500?

ZhishengWill we pull back below $500?#13926512/14/05; 09:32:17

We will if the central banks and the US Treasury get what they want, and quite a bit farther too.
Survivor@Silverton3#13926612/14/05; 09:40:53

This is your opportunity to hold the metal instead of paper. There is no quantity too small. There are plenty of fractional-ounce products to choose from.

So long as you *do* get back in, I don't think it matters when. Buy on the dips, of course (like right now). The paper currency you now hold is going down in value without question. By comparison, the physical you will hold has enduring value. What else can you own that is privately held and essentially untaxed? What else can you hold that cannot drop in value below the cost of getting it out of the ground?

Push the Easy Button. Get physical!

Best wishes
- Survivor

DruidDeceptive Warnings: Nearing Economic Disruption, the Fed Distorts Perception#13926712/14/05; 10:03:30

Druid: If you have not had the opportunity to read this article yet, I highly encourage you too. A little toward the middle of this snip. is a description identifying where a HUGE part of our goods hyper-inflation is located. I'm betting that when Bernanke takes office we'll get an opportunity to witness even larger sets of numbers.

"It appears that the Fed believed that it was free from constraints of moderate money supply stewardship because of a confluence of several factors:

§ The importation of cheaply priced Chinese consumer products produced with the benefits of $0.50 hourly labor rates and lax environmental and labor laws created a wage pressure mechanism to temporarily contain price and wage increases in the US economy;

§ A belief that skewing inflationary perception could contain consumer inflation expectations and thus limit activities such as hoarding and forward-buying that spur inflationary pressures if price inflation is detected;

§ A reliance, in the late 1990s, on temporary increases in economic productivity to helped contain price pressures; and

§ Starting in the late 1970s and continuing through the 1990s, liberalization of financial markets (as identified by Peter Warburton in his book "Debt and Delusion"10) allowed the massive pools of capital (money) that were created by Central Banks (US, European, Canadian, etc.) to move into financial instruments such as bonds, stocks, currency markets, and derivatives. This inflated the values of these markets, drew further investment, and hid the monetary inflation of the central banks as consumer goods prices increased relatively slowly in comparison. According to Warburton, the world bond market grew from $1 trillion in 197011 to more than $50 Trillion today. World stock market capitalizations now approach $30 Trillion; during the first 6 months of 2005 alone, financial derivatives grew 16% (or at a compounded 35% annual rate) from $9.45 trillion to $11 trillion12 and through financial gearing now exceed $270 trillion in underlying asset value - more than 500% the world's total annual GDP; and the world's currency trading markets now generate $2 trillion in activity or roughly 17% of the US’ total annual GDP, per day. These ballooning financial repositories, now totaling more than $100 trillion, absorbed waves of capital created by central banks with their elastic currencies thus temporarily mitigating the inflationary impact on consumer prices and seemingly creating a Shangri-La economy.

The above factors are not long-run factors that can continue indefinitely to contain pricing pressure post decades of aggressive expansion of the money stock by the Fed and other Central Banks. Because the money stock growth has been hidden with temporary techniques, whether the Fed reports M3 in the future misses the point entirely. Inflation has already been created but hidden with temporary market phenomena and measures.

As the US and the World's economies now slow in real growth and decline due to the economic distortion and excessive burden of debt as a result of Central Bank monetary policy (see below), businesses which have issued bonds will be less able to generate income to meet bond payment obligations on these bonds leading to rising default levels. Governments, with slowing economies and being unable to generate adequate tax revenue to meet fiscal obligations, will turn to the printing press to make bond interest payments or to purchase bonds outright in a fruitless effort to contain interest rates. Declines in returns on the $100 trillion in financial instrument investment ‘silos’ that, until recently, have temporarily contained and hidden monetary inflation, results in them now starting to disgorge some of the capital invested."

KnallgoldFutures,thinking out loud,tongue partially in cheek#13926812/14/05; 10:25:34

For every contract bought,one must be sold-now I'm wondering why then this comex price moves at all?Aha,maybe thats why they say paper doesen't move the price :-)

Liquidity:contract trading provides liquidity-hmm,a liquidity only contract traders want?Why liquidity?If you can't buy or sell a commodity,it points to a shortage/overproduction,admittedly it can be due to outside forces-its called risk.Face it,theres no life without risk.

Arbitrage:Bang your head on a physical wall-theres no point arbitraging papergold into/out of a physical only market.You can't sell a paper chair in that famous chair dance.

Gandalf the WhiteNOT to worry, Sir Z --- The US$ is still ---#13926912/14/05; 10:34:26

headed SOUTH !

ZhishengDollar vs. Gold#13927012/14/05; 10:55:18

I am sure you are correct in the long run Gandalf. But the two seem be to temporarily uncoupled.

To put things in perspective, I believe the dollar index during the middle of last summer was about the same as it is now (in mid June it was about 89.5), but gold was about $425 an ounce then.

A return to last summer's parity, plus a temporary return of the dollar to 92 would bring gold down about $100.

ski@ Galearis #139263#13927112/14/05; 10:56:14

I very carefully read your post about four times to be sure that I completely understood all of the subtle inputs.

Conclusion: Well spoken. Spot on!

Mthirsty1turnaround#13927212/14/05; 11:21:09

Don't worry OVS they are going back today and things will get back to normal.
OvSMildly Thirsty One#13927312/14/05; 11:25:01

You are catching on.
That's the spirit..!

ZhishengDown into the Close.#13927412/14/05; 11:29:59

If I were a big player, such as Hung Fat of Bill Murphy and Jim Sinclair fame, and I thought that the central banks and the big commercial shorts were expending resources to bring the price of gold down, what would I do?

Simply wait until they had fleeced the paper longs one more time, and then scoop in gold again at the new low prices.

OvSZhisheng.#13927512/14/05; 11:36:41

Beautiful theory. Give
a some numbers, though.

ZhishengOVS#13927612/14/05; 11:48:30

I did give some mumbers, about an hour ago.

I am NOT giving advice, just imagining what I would do were I in Hung Fat's shoes.

But I am not, and certainly do not have access to the type of intelligence he can purchase.

SmeagolHo hum....(yawwwn)#13927712/14/05; 12:16:50

Typical winter seasonal peak...Spring may bring us well below 500...barring ssomeone upssetting the applecart.

Sss...sso It goes down...we know it's only Another dip and a buying opportunity...another ressting sspot for the Hounds on the Trail, eh, Sssir Gandalf?

But we does see a ambivalence... as precious revalues all that debt... that more and more will wish the price of It to come DOWN, not up...and It may not trade in paper, because at those levels, not very many will be able to afford to buy It, much less trade it - on leverage! O no precious...jusst as not many can now afford to go to the Moon. Gold is about to leave a great many behind.

Hang in there, Ssir Mighty Thirsty One! You will get accusstomed to the vertigo of sspace travel yet! This is jusst a ride on the ssimulator! ~8-)


OvSIf I were in Hung Fat's shoes...#13927812/14/05; 12:30:06

I'd buy on the way down and
I'd buy on the way up, where-
ever I can my claws on that
precious and scarcer getting
glittery stuff. Otherwise my
competitor Dr.No would get the
best of me...darn it; no matter
how much pinke one has, there's
always someone who has or wants
to get more then I ...

FlatlinerAh…#13927912/14/05; 13:20:56

From the link:
"Gold was also hit by profit-taking in Japan overnight, after the Tokyo Commodity Exchange said it will raise margin requirements on gold futures from Dec. 14, in an effort to curb volatility in the market."

Speculators beware, rules change at any time.

I wonder if the same thing happened in Hong Kong?

Mthirsty1Done#13928012/14/05; 14:16:38

The deed is done OVS.By tommorw all will be right in the gold market.
Topazalt-Gold.#13928112/14/05; 15:38:09

The one thing a secular Bull is is "forgiving" a couple of Months it will not matter that we loaded up @ 530, in fact we'll be seen as quite the astute investor!

When previously through 1.11, our PoG equiv was $455 and with a droopy Buck, I'd be expecting upward PoG resumption any old tick FWIW.

R PowellSki#13928212/14/05; 15:38:42

You chastised me pretty well in post 139251 for what I said, tongue-in-cheek, in post 139244.

Obviously, my sense of humor was a bit too dry to be discerned. I'm well aware of Butler's fundamental views of silver as a commodity. Being sceptical, I have been trying to find an error in them for almost a decade. Because I can not, I've become a long time silver advocate/investor. But, no one, no one, is exempt from being lampooned.


160 X .5=80


misetichU.S. dollar rally shows age#13928312/14/05; 16:31:38


CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The dollar suffered the biggest one-day drop against the yen in some four years Wednesday as a record-wide U.S. trade deficit and the best reading in a year for a measure of Japanese business sentiment pounded an already swooning dollar.

The greenback began falling late Tuesday in reaction to a revised interest-rate outlook from the Federal Reserve.

The decline triggered the unwinding of a huge buildup of bullish dollar-yen positions, with the Japanese currency on track to put its first yearly decline against the dollar since 2001 on the books. With Wednesday's tumble, the dollar has seen its 2005 gain against the yen trimmed to around 12%.

Greetings and salutions to all. Been extremely busy accommodating newcomers to the Goldbull Express - Phase ll

...and we have added additional carriers for the next wave of passengers....

Gold's strength in lieu of a climbing US $ was unexpected by was an appitizer of things to come...

The pillars

US Budget Deficit is skyrocketing once again
US Trade Deficit is ballooning (the "US $ rally") of the last few months has caused further deterioration


U.S. data didn't help the dollar's cause.

The U.S. trade deficit widened by 4.4% in October to $68.9 billion, the Commerce Department said.

The trade gap widened despite the largest increase in exports since March, a decline in the price of petroleum imports, and a substantial rebound in aircraft exports. Imports increased 2.7% to $176.4 billion, while October exports rose 1.7% to $107.5 billion.

End of snip

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express Part ll

misetichUS Treasry Snow - Mission Accomplished#13928412/14/05; 16:38:19


Recovery owing to tax cuts, Snow says
Analysis: Bush appointees declare 'Mission Accomplished'

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The strong U.S. economic performance since May 2003 is largely due to the tax cuts advocated by President Bush, three Cabinet secretaries said Wednesday.

"Mission Accomplished"?

From the same article

Some numbers were unspoken at Wednesday's briefing: Real wages that haven't grown for seven years, 13 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve from 2001 to 2003, rising levels of debt that consume a record 13.8% of disposable income, a record current account deficit approaching 6.5% of gross domestic product, and a federal government debt that's grown 21% since the May 2003 tax cuts.

End of snip

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express Part ll

misetichGoldman Sachs: Oil prices to stay high for years#13928512/14/05; 17:08:49


Investment bank sees crude entering a 'super spike' phase

LONDON - Oil prices, which hit record levels this summer, have entered a "super spike" phase that could last for four more years as global demand booms and supply growth slows, Goldman Sachs analysts said on Tuesday.

"We disagree with what appears to be a growing consensus that crude oil prices reached their peak levels earlier in 2005," said the firm's Global Investment Research.

The analysts said oil demand remained resilient and supply growth lacklustre, prompting them to keep their average U.S. crude price forecast for next year unchanged at $68 a barrel.


According to researcher Adam Hamilton, "The average gold to crude oil ratio (gold price divided by crude oil price) for several different periods of time is shown in the Chart (1946-2000). For the last 55 years, an ounce of gold has been worth about 15 times as much as a barrel of crude oil. The dotted blue-line shows the linear trend of the data, indicating a rising of the gold to oil ratio. Over the last twenty years, for instance, the ratio has risen to over 17x. Currently, the ratio is at an unsustainable low of 9 [in 2000, today it's under 7!]. This level has only occurred two other times since 1946. Each time levels below 10 are seen, they proceed a sharp and sustained rally of the ratio back above the historical average." -GOLD BOILING IN OIL

Using a historic ratio of oil-to-gold of 15-to-1 means gold should be $975 per ounce today!

End of snip

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll

HenriR Powell msg 139240#13928612/14/05; 17:15:30

Excelleant post Sir bringing home the "value" of a futures market in terms of how it can smooth the pricing of coomodities through their cycles of plentitude and sparity. When futures operate on a global basis they likewise provide a "concensus pricing" of buyer's and sellers...but perhaps to the detriment of some evidenced by separate markets for US vs world sugar.

Yes, there are some drawbacks. Speculators (those who have neither the product nor the means to buy/store/transport the product are allowed to run amok in these markets.

Perhaps for these folks, a simple deposit fee for the priviledge to trade creating a more level playing field would solve the disparity.

If you wish to trade soybeans sir, please deposit the funds ordinarily required to take delivery/store and distribute your purchase or in lieu of deposit and at risk, demonstrate you have reserved such space and means of transport exclusively for the quantity you wish to trade.

misetichGerman CDU oppose Bundesbank gold sale for budget gaps#13928712/14/05; 17:31:04


BERLIN (Reuters) - Conservatives in German Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling coalition remain opposed to using Bundesbank gold reserves to plug budget holes, a senior lawmaker said after the idea was floated in a newspaper report.

"The Union has not changed its mind," Steffen Kampeter, budget expert in the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) told Reuters on Wednesday, using the term referring to the CDU and its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU).
The Bundesbank has the world's second-largest gold reserves after the U.S. and a surge in the price of the precious metal to the highest in almost 25 years has helped reanimate a debate about a possible sale.

As of September 2005, the German central bank held 3,427.8 tonnes of gold, worth about $56.5 billion at current prices. It has an option to sell 120 tonnes of gold a year under an accord with other central banks.

In the first year of the agreement through September, the bank only sold eight tonnes for minting gold coins and let other banks use the rest of the quota.
The Bundesbank has also been strictly against any sales of gold to trim the deficit, which has repeatedly breached European Union limits.

Central bankers have slowed down their gold lending/leasing as well...willing CB gold sellers are getting scarcer...willing CB gold buyers are increasing...Gold production is falling in both Australia and SA...investment demand is increasing multi-fold

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express Part ll

BeamerPaper Gold versus Real Gold#13928812/14/05; 17:32:49

I'm the proverbial lurker and enjoy the great posts and posters on this board. I'm an avid fan of gold, a gold-bug so they say. I started late in building my hoard and found it worthwhile to investigate the paper world. My gold instincts drove me and I mean literally drove me to paper gold in 2001. I purchased a pile of one particular gold stock because I had been tracking it for many, many years. I purchased it at 25 cents because I am a believer in the buy low, sell high concept. It currently sits at the $2.70 level and had been much higher. Eventually, I will sell when the fundamentals are completed and revert the profits back to my true love, GOLD. I just thought that bringing this message to the board would make some realize that there are opportunities in paper gold that can help one achieve the real dream of owning real gold at paper gold's expense. My point does not have the intention of raising offense but rather to promote real wealth creation by using the enemy's own court, so to speak.
R PowellHenri#13928912/14/05; 17:35:24

Thanks! I'm glad someone enjoyed it.
And yes, there is a fee or "margin" required to buy or sell futures'positions. But it is usually no where near what it should be, which means it usually gets raised whenever the market gets active.

Those who believe that these markets are always manipulated would say that the huge, omnipotent, government or central banks and/or bullion brokers or whoever have enough to cover margins. I certainly have to agree that these entities have plenty of capital. So, if money is no object, then neither, I guess, would be margin requirements.

OvSLong time no see, Misetich.#13929012/14/05; 17:38:03

Glad to see you back.
Always enjoy your relevant
diggings. Keep it going.

DemosthenesPaper and Gold#13929112/14/05; 18:20:14

A co-worker of mine and I have frequent conversations about the state of the economy and gold in particular. He deals mostly in paper gold and I mostly in physical gold and silver, although I have been gradually bringing him around to the coin side. He recently bought a batch of silver eagles for his son's birthday. A much better present than cash.

We were having a discussion the other day about how to classify the stock of a particular company. This company's only business is holding gold and silver bullion and enough cash so that the interest covers holding expenses. This company holds (at least allegedly) real physical bullion in various bank vaults. We were trying to determine if holding this company's stock is equivalent to storing gold (either allocated or not) distantly. It seems to us to be a better deal even. No storage fees. Easy to liquidate. Downside? Can't take delivery ever. Of course, if it came to where you really NEEDED delivery of your offsite gold, good luck getting it from ANYBODY.

Now I still advocate taking physical delivery of your gold, but if you want to trade actively, or if you are not sure how to store it, stocks like I described above could be an alternative.

David LinkleyBrave new world#13929212/14/05; 19:00:59

Remember that many of today's current hedge fund managers trading in and out of gold are the same ones who blew up the American public in the tech debacle. Not exactly the most trust worthy bunch.

This is definitely not our father's gold market as the longs kept liquidating even after today's record trade deficit was announced. This deficit occured even with lower oil prices.

The rest of the world must be licking their chops as the Western Central Bankers are forced to sell gold to bail out the shorts and keep their currencies from imploding overnite.

I have one thing to say to gold bears, you better call Oral Roberts old number because you're going to need a miracle.

misetichOvS (12/14/05; 17:38:03MT - msg#: 139290)#13929312/14/05; 20:18:03

Thanks for the kind words.


Chris PowellROB-TV interviews GATA's James Turk#13929412/14/05; 20:21:50

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy will be next.

Latest GATA dispatch.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Goldendome2nd that for Misetich#13929512/14/05; 21:26:56

Nice to see your still tiching and back with a post.
Ned3rd for Misetich......#13929612/14/05; 21:28:55

Hope you get to start PART III soon !
Druid@misetich#13929712/14/05; 21:30:13

Druid: Glad to have you and Mr Gresham back at the table.
ski@ R. Powell #139282#13929812/14/05; 21:33:36

Apology extended. Your variety of humor was a bit beyond my limited reach. I'll try harder.

Back to chasing silver rainbows.

contrarianBrave New World#13929912/14/05; 23:21:21

David Linkley--
Your heading reminds me of new book entitled "Our Brave New World" by Charles Gave, which is counterpoint to Richard Duncan's "The Dollar Crisis" or Addison Wiggin's "The Demise of the Dollar". In this book Gave says how deficits don't matter anymore, how loss of manufacturing doesn't matter, how companies that succeed now are "platform companies" that synthesize components both physical and conceptual, blah, blah.

Sounds like a good read, but my gut feeling is there's nothing new under the sun and when the dollar ceases to be the world's reserve currency and rather considered to be good toilet paper, then all bets are off, and Gave will have egg on his face--not to mention protectionism and resource wars. We really are in a unique period, it seems, not having had a major world war for the last 70 years or so, and I think historically that's an anomaly.

YGMMogambo Sez....#13930012/14/05; 23:45:20

Gotta love him & his humorous sensibilities, especially the last paragraph of his latest tirade. Always alot of wisdom beneath his self depreciating rants.
TownCrierUK's Brown calls for refocused, independent IMF#13930112/15/05; 00:10:22

NEW YORK, Dec 14 (Reuters) - British finance minister Gordon Brown, current head of the International Monetary Fund's key policy-making committee, on Wednesday called for a transformation of the IMF into a more modern financial watchdog free from political control.

Speaking at a ceremony at New York University, Brown said the 60-year-old IMF must move on from its role of solely protecting national economies from international balance of payments problems.

"Let us move the IMF forward from its old role for an old world of sheltered national economies -- of addressing balance of payments problems -- to a new role in a world of global capital flows," said Brown, head of the IMF's International Monetary and Financial Committee.

He said the IMF should now focus on cementing agreed international codes and standards, which he said would be "the key to stability and private investment surveillance"...

^---(from url)---^

Teaching an old dog a new trick.


TownCrierGerman CDU oppose Bundesbank gold sale for budget gaps#13930212/15/05; 00:24:18

BERLIN (Reuters) - Conservatives in German Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling coalition remain opposed to using Bundesbank gold reserves to plug budget holes, a senior lawmaker said after the idea was floated in a newspaper report.

"The Union has not changed its mind," Steffen Kampeter, budget expert in the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) told Reuters on Wednesday...

The comments followed a report in business daily Handelsblatt on Wednesday which seemed to point to disagreement in conservative ranks on the gold sales issue after another senior lawmaker backed the idea.

"I personally think it will be difficult otherwise to achieve a lasting reduction in the federal debt," the newspaper quoted Otto Bernhardt, finance spokesman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group as saying.

Handelsblatt said that "Frankfurt financial circles" were unsure if Bernhardt's comments should be taken as a serious proposal or as a test of public reaction.

.....Profits from the Bundesbank are paid to the federal government and analysts expect it to transfer around three billion euros into the 2006 budget from this year's profit, partly because of better performance from currency reserves.

"The Bundebank of course has independence and sovereignty over its gold reserves," Kampeter said, adding that it alone should be able to decide if it exercised its option to sell gold under the central banks' agreement.

The conservatives had no plans to use gold sales as a one-off measure to help balance the budget, he said.

The Bundesbank has also been strictly against any sales of gold to trim the deficit...

^---(see url for total article)---^

Mere waves upon a larger tide.


TownCrierBank of Russia Will Re-Evaluate Gold#13930312/15/05; 00:36:59

Dec. 14, 2005 -- Yesterday, Bank of Russia announced that starting from January 1, 2006 it will re-evaluate the gold in the country reserve according to market prices. This decision was explain by the "necessity of aligning the published data with current market realities." However, it looks like in reality the Central Bank (CB) is getting ready to buy massive amounts of gold, and the market prices will allow the bank to avoid accounting mistakes.

Yesterday Central Bank announced that from Jan.1 of next year it changes appraisals for the gold, which is kept in national gold reserves. Instead of previous fixed prices, the CB will start to appraise the precious metal according its own quotes, which are close to the market price. Officially, the CB proclaimed that this re-evaluation is necessary "to align the published data with current market realities."

For the first glance, it looks logical—currently the gold in state coffers is appraised by the CB fro $300 per ounce. The same quotes were in the market in 2002. Since that time, the price for gold went up by 1.7 times.

During his recent visit of Magadan, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced: "I think Central Bank should pay more attention to precious metal on Russian Federation's territory when it is forming gold and currency reserve." Besides, not long before this presidential remark, the CB officials headed by Chairman Sergey Igantiev, were saying about possibility to increase gold's share in gold and currency reserve.

^----(from url)---^

Newly returned from traveling the past two days and don't know if this has already been posted and discussed. Apologies if its already old news, but it's important nonetheless, and therefore worth the risk of repeat.

As some of us have previously discussed (968, Belgian) the Russian step torward MTM is another important signpost "on the road" to a new paradigm of highly valued gold on the basis of sanity and 'best practices' prevailing in international CB reserve structure.

Take advantage of the price dip.



The Invisible HandTownCrier msg#: 139303#13930412/15/05; 01:01:04

Putin resists foreign bank moves
Vladimir Putin has insisted foreign banks should not be allowed to open their own branches in Russia despite strong opposition from the US.

KnallgoldPOG#13930512/15/05; 02:42:27

Amazing this new volatility-now down 40$ from the high.This seems to coincide with the recent reduction in Goldderivative (Howe) reduction at BIS.Without the recent interventions to cap the rally again,I'm sure we would be already well above 600,look at the slope!
BelgianMTM : Marking gold's value to the Market#13930612/15/05; 03:48:30

All the gold-actions of the past decade are the prélude for the "generalization" of the MTM concept of gold (ECB idea).

It is about physical gold, of course. And the "market" that is going to "value" the goldmetal, will be... Another ... gold market, than the one w've known for the past 3 decades.

Those who which to see their goldmetal being marked its real "value", are supporting the transition into the "new gold market". The physical one of course.

If there was no such plan as "transiton to physical gold market", gold's price would already have risen (much higher) under the old paper-gold-market regime. But it hasn't !

Today's (still low) goldprice does NOT at all represent the real VALUE of the precious. Under the derivatized paper-gold-market regime, gold cannot and will not be priced to its real value.

The same was true for oil's real value, that was not priced for the enormous fundamental value it represented to the global economy. No oil, no wealth creating economy !
Let gold express its real value and let valuable oil have permanent gold wealth. Let gold be marked to the value that a free world gold market judges appropiate. Change the old gold-pricing market into a gold-valuating market. Then one's goldmetal gets wealth-status.

No wonder that worldwide "official" gold events keep popping up with the regularity of a clock. Gold Action !

Why is it that CBs and international institutions (IMF-Brown) constantly mention the oilprice ...oil-valuation !?
This is affecting, once again, the entire global economy and the monetary system on wich it is presently functioning.

Think about the world's economy N°2...the island of Japan, having a declining currency versus the petro-dollar and a 100% importer of the fundamental basis of its (export) economy !
Why does the Bundesbank remain opposed to the idiotic suggestion to sell obscenely priced (under-valued) gold-wealth-reserves, to fill some of the budget gaps ! This is "comedia del arte" of a deceptive nature.

The transition out of the old gold market into the new a Big Bang and therefore it must proceed in an appropiate way.

Official gold (CBs) wants to become priced at its real value. Again, recently ridiculed by Prof. Murenbeeld, for instance. He has to relativate (shoot) the messengers (some CBs). The Professor "must" talk the goldprice into the old gold market and neutralize as much new gold signals (MTM) as possibly can.
Same kind of authorities are mobilized to reign in the evolving oil-pricing...valuation.

All these statements are part of the ongoing gold actions.
And the recent Japan-TOCOM actions on gold's price are to be seen as gold action. (remember Hashimoto threaths '97)

HenriPutins bank ban#13930712/15/05; 05:38:10

I think Putin is wise to forbid foreign banking on Russian soils. Why would you want foreign Leeches introduced to your fledgling economy? There will be a time for the evolution of Russian banks out of Russia and competitors to be allowed in...the time is not yet right.
GoldiloxGordy's IMF statement#13930812/15/05; 07:04:18

Applying the Orwellian filter, it sounds like,

"Let's evolve the IMF from being the shadowy financial arm of Globalism to being the 'official' financial arm of Globalism."

GoldiloxCPI Deflation Arrives#13930912/15/05; 07:13:41


"My friend Jas Jain and I have been going back and forth on whether huge deflation will arrive, or whether we will have one last bout of inflation before things turn south and the second leg down of the Second Great Depression gets underway. I think we agree that we already saw the first major down leg as the NASDAQ/Internet Bubble fell apart and wiped out more than a trillion dollars of paper "wealth." Jas has been arguing that prices of everything, but especially real estate will be coming down dramatically and perhaps in a major visible way before the end of 2006.

His case is bolstered this morning by the government's release of the Cost of Living Index which shows that deflation - not inflation arrived last month The index dropped an amazing 0.8%. . .

A couple of points: First, if deflation has won a round here, then that would easily explain why the price of gold took such a hit this week, down nearly $26 at one point. Secondly, if I were not locked into a real estate deal that I had to close on in order to have a place to live, I'm not sure that waiting on buying might not make sense. If real estate prices ease, and if the Fed stops raising or has to lower rates, then you can pencil out the implications for the housing market.

Housing deflation is not massive or pervasive. Yes, prices are down in some markets, but up in others. Still, one might argue that the housing bubble has been blown up about as far as it's ever going to get, until "Helicopter Ben" and his friends can figure out how to build some inflationary pressure into this economy. If they can't, then I owe Jas a bottle of wine for calling the return of deflation correctly.


In the stagflatory tug-of-war between inflafla and deflafla, George suggests that falling wages are overcoming commodity price gains. Interesting analysis.

GoldiloxHouse OKs extending parts of the Patriot Act#13931012/15/05; 07:36:20


Specter also pointed out that the original House version called for a 10-year extension on the criticized provisions; the Senate prevailed on its desire for a four-year expiration.

The original Senate renewal bill contained some of the provisions that civil libertarians want. "It was a unanimous vote because people from different points of view came together,'' said Feingold, who was the only senator to vote against the original Patriot Act in October 2001.

More than 400 localities, including many in the Bay Area, and seven states have passed resolutions calling for changes in the original Patriot Act to better safeguard civil liberties. A broad-based coalition of groups, including the American Civil Liberties Union, Gun Owners of America, the American Conservative Union and the American Library Association, also oppose the bill the House passed Wednesday.


Full text at URL, Kinda makes one wonder when the label of "terrorist" is defined by what one reads at the library. Those who check out "investigative" books about gubmint market manipulation are sure to be high on their list! Better hide that copy of "Jekyll Island!"

R PowellYGM#13931112/15/05; 08:08:17

Thanks for the Mogambo link. I don't always agree 100% with him but I always do enjoy his humor.

YGMRich#13931212/15/05; 08:35:28

Hi Rich, hope you & yours are well & prospering over this xmas season and had a great year past. Keep your thoughts flowing as well, as we need balance in our decisions. Myself I see PM's moving up in waves. The derivatives time bomb will not be allowed to explode IMHO. I agree with Belgian that we will see M to M Gold but it will be a very controled ascent (as much as it can be). I believe this Gold bull has many years left to run and the CB forces at work will stay in the drivers seat unless there is an as yet unseen rogue wave to contend with. You have a good xmas and prosper in the new year. Regards; Ken
BoilermakerBlack Blade's Gas Drawdown Est.#13931312/15/05; 08:40:08

The number just released by EIA, -202BCF in storage, is right on BB's -200BCF call of a few days ago. Good call BB!
Now if my next well hits maybe I can convert gas to gold. Proble is we have too few drilling rigs here in Ohio and there's a long wait for new holes.

R PowellSupposins + opinions, no real facts#13931412/15/05; 08:40:51

Underlying fundamentals have led me to believe that the recent price runups in gold and silver were, at least in part (how much?), based on or caused by real market forces as opposed to speculation. But, always a but, once the prices started up, speculaive monies also bought, adding fuel to the fire.

It was probably this speculative investment that we've been watching withdraw somewhat, while prices declined and as a cause of the price decline. This is pretty basic stuff but necessary background for this one man's opinion that both the POG + POS are now at levels that the technical traders may...may...see as a price decline equivalent to a certain percentage of the recent price rise. Fibonnacci related.

Whether or not we put any credence in such ratios matters little. What does matter, is that there is a great amount of money invested by those who do buy or sell according to their interpretation of such ratios or other readings from a price chart over some period of time. Fwiw, if such predictions fail to materalize, the chart readers do not question the validity of the system, they simply conclude that their particular reading of the price chart (always looking only at what happened in the past), was not correct. So, with new data, they re-interpret the whole thing. Again, this is basic stuff and I apologize for boring those who know this. But, sensing that most here are not paper traders (grin), I thought it might help to explain why markets often do not react as one would think. (Or, as some will opine, the POG is being hammered by the shorts in an ongoing conspiracy to support outrageous debt.) Also, imho, these moves are short term events, if one believes that gold is in a long term bull, which I guess we all do believe. So, if this might be a new low that holds, then what better time to go long? And yes, going long can be paper, physical or both!

Clink!TC's #139301#13931512/15/05; 09:06:13

"British finance minister Gordon Brown, current head of the International Monetary Fund's key policy-making committee, on Wednesday called for a transformation of the IMF into a more modern financial watchdog free from political control."

Britain's No 2 politician is saying that there should be less political control of the IMF ? Does anyone else see something wrong with this picture ?! Nah, fits right in with the other drivel - "the 60-year-old IMF must move on from its role of solely protecting national economies from international balance of payments problems." Ah yes, your friendly, caring IMF which has screwed more second and third world nations than you can name. Actually it's worse - the IMF have given them the licence to screw themselves.


Galearis@ Rich re paper silver and metal silver #13931612/15/05; 10:36:04

I have had trouble loading the December 13 page in its entirety, and posted the Ted B. post before I had even read your response..

Having read your words, I again find myself agreeing with virtually all of it,,,,except for some of the conclusions. Yes, I do believe copper is reflecting the demand,,,,I just wonder if the relationship is as direct as it should be because of so much paper involvement. Although I am not an expert in the copper market,,,we have recently seen a Chinese player going naked short and getting caught short with delivery call a default risk . The Chinese do have a strategic stockpile in this case and a default will likely be avoided. A default would REALLY blow up the price.

But how much of the paper copper sold is sold naked short – besides the situation involving the Chinese gentleman.

You say: "I believe this real physical demand is the trigger that any market must have to see higher prices". Well sure, but I believe the statement should now be : that a perceived shortage of supply and perceived increased demand are the triggers to higher prices. The key here as it always has been in futures markets and the physical one is "perception". Naked shorting is the supply that is produced when needed. But unarguably, there has been a deficit of supply of yearly produced metal to demand for over 15 years.

You have said yourself that the COMEX paper market and its stockpile of metal is the stockpile of last resort,,,and as we watch (I believe) we are beginning to see the world positioning itself to focus on the metal, not the paper. This week's huge deluge of paper was clearly an attempt to take down the market using paper. It was not done through leasing, but by offerings of lots of paper silver as low as $8.10. This triggered the sell-off,,,,in paper contracts,,,,by funds who were themselves in the market for the paper profits. The market reacts equally well to a naked contract sold short as to a single contract bought on the spot market. The problem is the spot market cannot supply 500,000,000 ounces of silver, whereas the seven or fewer large shorts can print up the same in monotonous profusion and sell it.
Therefore we have the uptick phenomenon whereby he maintained that anything sold as paper was the same as the metal. It was in terms of the paper market response,,,,but (and this is the closed logic loop that LOSES most folks who are on the surplus of silver side of the argument) there was never the silver to cover this metal, and that meant, given the hundreds of millions of ounces sold every cycle x 4 or 5 x per year that amounted to several times the world's annual production of silver, that this was fraudulent and went against commodity law. The paper silver could only be technically covered,,,,but not all at once,,,or even not very much at once,… But in theory A contract of paper silver could be stopped for delivery, just not a lot of them at the same time. I think that has changed. The commercials now own most of this metal and cannot as easily be caught in a delivery squeeze.

In the past most futures traders never looked at the mining side, and just believed that there really was 500,000,000 ounces of silver available to be sold several times per year. Uptick may have been one of these. Do they (did they, did he) even look in the COMEX warehouse? Do they consider that there is the LBMA, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Sydney, BESIDES little ol’ COMEX that are also a supply of paper silver selling well over the underlying real silver supplies at hand. Somehow the argument is,, that if people are able to sell anything naked short, and get away with this almost never being settled in the real thing, then sure, why not allow the good people to make a profit. What the heck, if the shorts are covered in the end? The spot market can still supply the real market,,,and the futures market can sell the paper. The reality is that the paper market involves more (fictitious) contracts of total ounces than the spot market and hence sets the price. The price is now held range-bound based on the volume of paper contracts – as we have seen for fifteen or twenty years and just rises high enough to be an mediocre inflation hedge-while being in oftentimes severe deficit of supply. The two latter points are supposedly impossible in a free market.

And the silver market became "financialized" and a virtual money tree controlled by the commercial shorts. Until there is no more silver!

The upticks use that odd logic loop(y) that goes something like: if silver was in short supply, why is it so cheap? How can that be when X000,000 ounces were sold last month? So when it is pointed out to these folks that even anti-silver, anti-gold commodities think tanks point out that only 600,000,000 ounces (GFMS) of silver exist in bullion form as actual physical supply (including the 66 M.oz registered supplies in COMEX) these folks just call the surveys nonsense. None of them can accept how paper silver (and gold) really sets the price by selling empty promises. Using CPMGroups study, I come up with under 200M.oz available bullion left in useable stockpiles on the planet.
And silver isn't even ahead on its inflation adjusted value to the USD, and won't until it surpasses $25 per ounce (in year 2005 dollars).

Take the present O.I. for March, 2006 as an exercise and translate that 10,000 or so contracts into real metal. 5000 x 10,000 =50,000,000 ounces already. It will go to about 8 times this total by late February (given the market behaviour these past few days). That's 400,000,000 ounces and clearly more silver than exists in stockpiles anywhere on the planet.

Twenty years ago there was 2.5 Billion. In 1950 there was over 5 Billion. In 1950, silver was worth much more than it is now in inflation adjusted terms. In 1900, when there was 3 times as much silver in stockpiles (mostly in the US) one ounce of silver was a day's wage. But markets being what they are,,,who is to say that silver wasn't over priced in those yesteryears. So looking back isn't all that satisfying. But we still see the trend: dropping bullion supplies, rising demand and falling prices. Hmmmph.

But the world has never run out of silver before. Ever. That is the downside of price- controlled markets.

To sum up, the POS is set overwhelmingly by the sales of paper contracts of silver, the supply of which can be printed up and dumped on the market in any quantity necessary to depress the price. To date, this has been a safe practice in that only a relatively small number of these contracts are going to be stopped for delivery – and be potentially removed from the vaults. This is changing as REAL supplies of metal becomes strained outside of COMEX and the waits for silver bought on the spot market become impossibly long. The sham eventually becomes more and more obvious to the public,,,,and more important,,, to potential speculators. Yes, demand finally catches up to the physical reality and the paper speculators are forced out. The paper burning scenario that Another talked about. Nice image that. (smile).

But the perception of a problem in supply is what is going to drive this. The other side of this sham is, of course leasing of silver to fulfil the supply deficit. And if you believe GFMS, it fulfils this gap to the exact ounce as needed. But leasing is a yet another physical metal short sale, and the fact of the supply being available seems to be all that matters. Sure the market is satisfied by enough metal ,,,,but the riggers have to go short again to do it. And that metal is gone for years if not for good.

And yes, they will inevitably cash out,,,,and there will be, perhaps some angry Chinese, or even US domestic/personal supplies out of their metal in the end. The latter may even want to sue someone.

But I am rambling and it is time to close this.

I do not think that this market will necessarily soon DRAMATICALLY reflect the underlying fundamentals of supply and demand of the real metal. What I have seen so far is an all out effort to keep the paper price viable over the physical one. I think that the people behind this "financialized" silver market would (will?) attempt to preserve this status quo until the very last ounce has been used up.

When this happens, the drama will be TPTB closing down the paper market after an initial run up. Will we see a one dollar day rise. Maybe. But as we compare silver (gold too) with other commodities in short supply,,,we see an underperformance, a lag. This is symptomatic of the paper manipulations going on….

No, I don't see this paper market around for years. Not in this form. As a wise fellow once said, "Run it right, or close it down". (Smile)

Best regards,


SmeagolBravo, Ssir Galearis#13931712/15/05; 10:59:55

Wethinks that post(139316)worthy of inclusion in the Hall of Fame sso that it can be referred to by future visitors.


FlatlinerThe latest article from The [Great] Mogambo Guru#13931812/15/05; 11:06:55

Hi all, I'm trying to get a handle on his statement that there is "…reportedly, a short position in gold, measured in umpteen jillions of ounces, that is 78 times as big as all the gold in the whole damned world!"! (Notice the extra ‘!’. I have a hard time with that type of punctuation and with using capital letters.) So my research goes as follows:

I visit the NYMEX's gold link and expand the Current Session Overview to find the open interest column. It reads like:

Dec 2005 … 96
Jan 2006 … 21
Feb 2006 … 247287

If I understand this correctly Open Interest means that someone has committed to sell and someone else has committed to buy – but they might not follow through on the agreement because not everyone wants to hold unallocated physical gold. This would mean that the short position equals the long position with equals the Open Interest.

Looking at just Feb 2006, and knowing that each contract is for 100 troy ounces, the math is easy 24,728,700 could trade hands. Converting this into tonnes makes it about 770. That's not all that bad. Given that The [Great] Mogambo also mentions that global production is about 2500 tonnes, that would lead me to believe that on the NYMEX about 30% of a years production has been committed. Hum… 30% in one market in one month. That's interesting, but doesn't seem devastating. Even when I add up all the Open Interest through 2010, I only find 32,923,800 ounces or 1,024 tonnes. That, also doesn't sound too bad.

I know that India likes to buy gold and, I'm guessing that they consume 600-700 tonnes a year (or so) thus making the total pool of yearly available gold for the NYMEX more like 1800 or 1900 tonnes.

But, this is only one market. Now, if there are other big markets around the world, like London, Hong Kong that also provide open interest they would also have to be considered. Unfortunately, I don't have stats on them. But if they have any reasonable volume, it would seem that those markets would also squeeze the available supply.

But to what? Is there really open interest in the order of magnitude that is 78 times world the amount of gold in the world? And, if so, does anyone have information or a link to someone that's done this research? As it stands right now, I can not see how someone could come up with this number.

Thanks much!

GoldiloxHUI watch#13931912/15/05; 11:31:31

Most all of the stocks in the HUI are up today, with nary a move in IT. Are they positioning for another runup in POG?

So far, $500 still looks like a good ground floor.

Flatliner@ Rich re paper silver and metal silver#13932012/15/05; 11:44:30

Galearis, A pleasurable read. Thanks.

I like how you close your posting. But, will the paper market ever really close? Consider, if you will, the price manipulators playing both sides of the equation. What if one manipulator goes short while the other goes long? In the end, they both affect the price and the short will never call the metal. This way, they can seemingly create liquidity all the while knowing that they will not be called on for delivery.

I believe that this manipulation will go on through the point of physical supply drying up. At that point, you and I will go to buy Silver (or Gold) and find that it's Spot+100 rather then Spot+25. A few days later, it maybe Spot+200 and so on. Basically, the physical trading (and price) will decouple and form its own market. At that point, reality will sink in and the true value of these metals will be found.; Mogambo Guru Richard#13932112/15/05; 11:53:00

Why not simply email him and ask him for his source as he wrote it. His address is at the bottom of the article.
TownCrierPrices for physical up#13932212/15/05; 13:48:03

Despite this past week's significant softening of gold's price (as is determined by action in DERIVATIVE trading), I thought you might be interested in knowing that the PHYSICAL-based trading in U.S. $20 gold Liberty and St. Gaudens has actually resulted in a price INCREASE for those items at this very same moment.

You might think that to be odd at first, but given the real world's underlying fundamental demand for tangible wealth rather than for a superficial veneer of decorative paper accounting units, the observable separation makes perfect sense.

To reiterate a related point for those who are still struggling to get a handle on it, the discussion of 'freegold' has very much to do with the physical (vs. derivative) nature of the market and its associated mechanism for price discovery to serve as the reference benchmark for the price of tangible goldmetal.


TownCrierThe search for a solid foundation....#13932312/15/05; 13:59:32

HEADLINE: Russian MPs welcome decision to ban foreign banks affiliations

MOSCOW, December 15 (Itar-Tass) - Members of committees of the State Duma dealing with financial and economic issues have welcomed President Vladimir Putin's statement on banning activity of affiliations of foreign banks.

Putin told a conference on the role of banking sector, held in Novosibirsk Wednesday, that the government agreed with the Russian banking community that it was important to restrict or, in essence, to ban the operations of affiliates of foreign banks on Russia's territory.

"Competition and, more specifically, the impossibility of watching the flows of capitals nowadays, is not the only reason," Putin said.

Pavel Medvedev, the deputy chairman of the committee for lending institutions and financial markets, said, "Their operations are absolutely non-transparent and unforeseeable."

"We don't want living on the volcano, we don't want events like the default in 1998."

In August 1998, Russia went through a major financial turmoil that led to a collapse of some major banks, a default on foreign debt payments, and a devaluation of the ruble.

^---(from url)---^

On the CB level, transitioning to the value of solid gold reserves in place of the "impossibility" of measuring value of foreign IOUs (bonds) certainly would be consistent with what we are seeing here expressed in terms of concern about the commercial institutions.

Read the signs, plan ahead, own gold.


R PowellSilver // Galearis#13932412/15/05; 14:02:06

Thanks for the thoughts! I second Smeagol's nomination.

Concerning our example of copper as a demand driven market, I must constantly remind myself that it is oh so hard to distinguish between the cause of price advances, that is, whether demand driven or speculative. Reports of the huge Chinese short position do not tell us WHEN these positions were initiated. Myself, I wonder if they were the cause of copper's last big decline which ended at about 135. I do note that not even this amount of paper shorting could hold down or negate the ecomonic demand for metal (supply + demand). Demand for physical, if strong enough, overpowers naked shorting. I foresee no default. The shorts may be covered somewhat with physical delivery but some will have to be simply bought back, settled with a paper lose. This is the nature of speculation. Sometimes chicken and sometimes feathers. My point is that demand for physical overpowers speculation. And the shorts in any market, whether naked or not, are, imho, speculation. If they are not naked, they may well be hedgers who have bought physical for industrial needs + hedged their purchase price by selling paper.

Yes, sir, I entirely agree. It is market opinion or perception that causes people to buy or sell, whether physical or paper trades.

And yes, silver has been in a supply/demand deficit for decades. Billions of ounces, of PHYSICAL, accumulated over centuries, have been dishoarded into the PHYSICAL market to cover this deficit. You know this. But many market players (especially technical traders) do not! They hold the perception that there can not be an ongoing deficit (assuming that they are even aware of it!) because the price has not gone up bigtime. So many in the paper game have stated that silver simply can be predicted on any supply/demand numbers. But, again that but, the POS has gone up! So many forget when silver was 4 or 5 bucks. I wonder now if the old highs from early 2004 (about where we are now) have now become a new support level? Who knows?

As to shorts in either copper, gold or well have they prospered over these last few years?

And yes, reports (always questionable sources) do indicate only a few hundred million ounces of silver left, some of which isn't even for sale! We may be getting closer to a real demand situation as I believe copper is (was?) in. Physical demand...? Let's hope so!

Survivor@ Towncrier - Prices for physical are up#13932512/15/05; 14:06:38

First a decoupling between gold and the dollar. Now a decoupling of paper gold from physical.

Methinks there is a trend here . . .

- Survivor

DruidExcellent Post: Galearis (12/15/05; 10:36:04MT - msg#: 139316)#13932612/15/05; 14:09:54

Druid: I 3rd the nomination made by Smeagol and Rich.
TownCrierDiscovering Gold Again#13932712/15/05; 14:28:38

LARGO, FLA. - Gold surpassed the $500 per ounce plateau and is currently outperforming every currency in the world.

The short but obvious answer to what is driving up the price is demand, and that demand is coming from three principal sources.

China and India. Both of these nations have been growing in economic spades, and with their economic growth has come paper wealth and an almost instinctive need to convert this paper wealth into assets with intrinsic value. What better, readily exchangeable asset with intrinsic value than gold?

...Greater paper wealth in both countries translates into greater demand for conversion into gold.

Since 1975, American citizens have had the ability to purchase gold freely for private ownership without any licensing or restrictions of any kind. Chinese citizens were just granted this right in 2002, and not until recently have they been able to freely walk into a bank and purchase gold. What does this mean? Newly granted freedom of ownership. A real discovery for many.

Recently published statistics peg American ownership in gold totaling 1.4 grams per person; compare that to less than one-tenth of a gram per Chinese citizen. You really don't have to do the math to figure that there's a relatively huge void of ownership that should surely be filled. The starting gun for the Chinese citizen just went off. Couple this with the notion that the Chinese have a more traditional perception and appreciation for the intrinsic value of gold, and you have the possible makings for per capita Chinese gold ownership to soar beyond American levels.

Long-Term View

If you compare the present day gold rally with that of the late 1970s, two fairly important traits jump right out at you:

--Volatility: The late 1970s rally saw gold move from $173 in December 1978 to $873 in January 1980--a span of just 13 months. It then retraced to $295 in a matter of two years. Compare that to the current rally, where gold has moved from $252 to $538. The current move, however, has happened over FIVE years with LESS volatility.

-- Support-Building: Gold's price move over the past five years has been more gradual, while creating STRONGER FOUNDATIONAL LEVELS of support and more SOLID OWNERSHIP (i.e. institutions and central banks) in the commodity than in years past.

...By most fundamental as well as technical accounts, gold will make it through this short-term pullback and continue its price ascension.

^---(see url for full article)---^

Have you the strength of constitution and conviction of understanding to be buying gold nicely into this price pullback?

Convert your paper scorecard into tangible evidence that you know how to play and win at this economic game -- exchange your occasional digits for a solid gold "trophy" of enduring value.


GalearisGalearis @ all#13932812/15/05; 15:02:32

Thank you all for reading that ramble. I surely do not deserve the accolades for something thrown together like that piece was,...

Silver bullion in sight to maintain these "normal markets" are reportedly: around 60Moz in India (cb -nfs without parliamentary legislation;17Moz in Hong Kong (reported); an unknowable amount in the LBMA but probably under 10Moz (2 years ago COMEX bailed out the LBMA) and of course COMEX total stockpiles of 117,578,844. This totals about 204.5Moz.
Note that India reported 55Moz available to sell last spring,,,but I added another 5 Moz to the total because I think it is more accurate to assume they wouldn't empty the vaults. I also assumed they were lying about selling. I am also going to ignore the non-existence of several billion ounces of black silver supplies. (Smile)

I think that China is all but finished leasing into this market. Over the years the total metal leased into neutering the deficit was apparently around 200 Moz from this source. All of this is, of course, FWIW and more or less speculation. That is a pretty good reason for this market to rise,,,,and for the commercials to get nervous and to grab the silver in the vaults.

And you sharp folks undoubtedly picked up on the lower total and saw that there was a draw-down today of 1,193,057 oz. - from the eligible stocks in the COMEX.
That's solid, at least. That's not small change leaving the vaults. Hope to see more.

I will try to keep on top of this market and will post real news when I can.

We are closer all the time to the resolution.

Best regards,


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#13932912/15/05; 15:22:18">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

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THURSDAY Market Excerpts

December 15 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold futures briefly climbed back above $510 an ounce before closing lower Thursday.

"After reaching its most overbought condition in years at the beginning of this week, gold has now worked off most of the excess speculation," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

"This is very bullish as a pullback to former key multi-decade resistance in the $500 area is normal and just part of the two steps up, one step down, rise gold has gone through since 2001," he said.

COMEX February gold contracts closed down $2.90 at a two-week low of $506.60.

The contract, which had touched a more than 25-year high of $543 on Monday, has dropped a total of $24.90 during its losing streak.

Prices tested the 20-day moving average this morning, said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities.

"If gold manages to hold here, then the market could just turn and make new highs before the year ends."

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---

R PowellFlatliner#13933012/15/05; 15:52:38

I agree with your description of longs equaling shorts equaling open interest. Some speculators simply roll over their positions as that dangerous delivery date approaches. There are deadlines, which if passed, while positions are still open, place the trader in jeopardy of being "assigned" or commited to either actually buying or selling. It is during this short timeframe that the exchange pairs up the buyers and sellers. Then comes a final deadline when all remaining open positions are commited. There is no danger here to those who really want to buy or sell, but the vast majority of the game is settled in cash. Farmers, for an example, always sell their crops but most also play the paper game, delivering their crop into shorts or offsetting for cash. Some may even take paper profits + store some crop. Many may buy if they believe the price is cheap, even if they have a crop in the fields. It is a complicated game. Thus, the paper players always have a deadline and the whole shebang is tallied every so often (once a month for gold).

And, yes, while the Mogambo does comment on lots of good information, he sometimes also tends to exaggerate, imho. I believe the Mogambo makes the mistake that so many others do, in thinking that all open positions indicate or imply that a physical transaction is forthcoming. Also, they include the open interest in options which greatly adds to the total implied. It may be this total of futures plus options (short options are called puts) that the Mogambo refers to...?

My mom used to say, "Takes good money to buy beer. Talk is cheap." Another one was, "One must either fish or cut bait." Most futures + options positions don't sell or buy the product. They are like bets on a horse race...settled in cash. No one buys or sells a horse. They neither fish nor cut bait.

NedHere is something that has always blown my little mind..........#13933112/15/05; 17:38:30

During this extraordinary runup to spot 538/540 there were a billion reasons why it was happening.

We hit a temporary top (I think spot hit just shy of 540) and along comes the retrace ('correction' because the paper 'heros' over extended their "irrational exurberance"?)
to $498.70 as I watch spot acting like a fish out of water for 3 days.

Here's the clincher. Now the TA experts, the paper pushers, the experts, the so-called FA heros, ALL OF THEM who said gold "DESERVED" $520/530...... ALL NOW SAY it was OVERDONE !!


Don't tell me gold is 'worth' $530 on Thursday and again its 'worth' $500 on Tuesday.

Its rather sickening.

I'd rather see gold go 2 bits each and every day for the next 10 years than to watch this revolting volatile see-saw game where every Patsy pats himself on the back for the "correct call". Pass the bucket.

May the paper traders burn in h***.

NedI see the $500 line back in play..........#13933212/15/05; 17:41:55

I say the PGA's hold the $500 line in the sand.

Paper pushers can burn..............

melda laureDo be careful with the helium.#13933312/15/05; 18:14:42

What is gold worth? Gold is worth owning.

Value these items:
Here I have a little fuse that could blow up the world.
Next a special fuse that will destroy one quarter of the earth. (I'm not sure quite which quarter)
Over here a terminal that can "print" millions per millisecond.
And here a little device that can transmutate just about anything into gold.
But wait! Over here I have a modular quantum replicator that can make duplicates of just about anything (from hamsters to 400 oz good delivery bars- you'll have to re-stamp them yourself of course) and next to it, I have the parts for a second replicator (so you can replicate more replicators.)

Yes, that's right, each is both priceless and worthless, surely an abusurdity!

melda laureToo late, bidding is halted.#13933412/15/05; 18:19:07

I just stuffed all the items into the quantum derezzer. and no, you cant have it, It's not mine.

But I did make a nice set of little silver bells. seems the replicator design needs some work... I hit this bell here...

. ... and all these over here start ringggingingingign.

slingshotGreat Day to be a Goldbug!#13933512/15/05; 20:09:23

I knew it. They could not stand gold above $500. Like getting shot in the butt with a hunting arrow. They had to do something cause it hurt so bad.
Just remember the time interval between the hundred dollar marks is shorter. When gold breaks $700 and pulls back to $698,we will most likely feel the same as now.

Flatliner@Bank of Russia Will Re-Evaluate Gold#13933612/15/05; 21:05:48

TownCrier, This forum was not the same without you! Welcome back. Upon reviewing the day's postings, I do believe that your post on Russia's revaluing of their gold is quite significant.

I particularly like the lines "With such significant difference between purchasing price and the cost reflected in accounting books, there will be unavoidable serious mistakes in reporting documents. And this is not going to satisfy CB or its auditors."

I'm sure we will all be very interested to see how the auditors interpret the books after the first of the year. In particular, I'm going to be looking for how the auditors ‘value’ this new – currency - maybe?

It is all very exciting and mysterious at the same time!

Mthirsty1not me#13933712/15/05; 21:08:02

Thank the world it was not me.A couple of days ago i made a post that i jinxed the market because i bought bullion.A few of our fellow contributers asked me to sell and not buy any more gold.I took thier advise and went back and sold the bullion that i had purchased 4 days ago.We have still been seeing the price of gold drop.As i have said in my earlier posts i have been involved in coin collecting for over twenty years and alot of my coins are gold,and they have been very good to me.My problem was jumping into the bullion pool when the pool had just enough gold in it to keep me from hitting my head on the bottom.The advise i got to sell was good advise.But now i am going to do what i should have done in the first place.I am going to buy the gold starter kit that our gracious host is selling.i have done my research and it is a good investment, and i like the numismatic value tied in with the gold value.My posts last week were in good humor and i hope i have not offened any one.I still look forward to the dailey discussion's,as you folks are a wealth of knowledge.I learn more in these roundtables than i would by doing a months research.Thank you all.Mike.
mikal@slingshot#13933812/15/05; 21:15:01

I agree. Truth is there were numerous old 'resistance points' clinging to this week's range like fleas and ticks
I need not mention.
Also all markets are getting thinner as holidays near, so potentially more and more volatile, especially in this world class tug of war between "titans" and with some weak hands still about.
While it could also be said this is a time of year for increased book squaring (and profit taking) by fund managers, there has been wicked demand surges, especially by the shorts needing to cover.
I don't see the margin increases on the gold exchanges as much of a factor as the rising yen and dollar combo the last few days. The wind still blows in paper sails undecided but for an undertow to the uncharted and unrecognized.
Gold... This four letter relic is barbarous.
We apply the barbarism, stupid hands over his relics.
It's locked down in a NYS penitentiary, a federal corrections facility and a BIS reformatory school all at the same time.
They correct it down, they correct it up, but they can't give you the time of day.

TopazAg/Au.#13933912/15/05; 22:03:38

From a technical PoV it will be interesting to watch the Con-Divergence on Gold and Silver as this delivery month matures.
This month is dual delivery, the rest of the Year has Ag and Au delivering into alternate months. It has been common this year for Ag to run up all through the delivery period whereas Gold has lost momentum in the latter stages.

We appear to be seeing this occurring now.

GoldiloxSold in 4 days#13934012/15/05; 22:23:39

@ Mthirsty1,

I hope you get back in and a few bucks back in the kitty to celebrate with a nice dinner out or something!

Mthirsty1Your ivited#13934112/15/05; 22:54:51

Will do Goldilox,and your all invited.We just have to all be in Utah on the same moth, day and year.
physicalmanGOLD,SILVER AND A DEFLATIONARY THOUGHT!#13934212/15/05; 23:02:59

Hello again all,
Been working like a dog as usual and lurking mostly. Haved watched this action of the last few weeks and have a few things to share. Someone here used to post the amount of bets placed with strike call options and at what price level on triple-witching days. Would be curious to know how many were bought at the 500 dollar level and would show how important it is for the price level to be below 500 an oz. at the close tom. Also would be curious to see what the silvers at 8.50-9.00 per oz. were too.
Thats why i don't get too wound up about prices changes over a few days or a weeks time. It's just paper games being played that have not a thing to do with the core fundementals and the long term moral and historical perspecitives that cause most of us to be precious metal bugs, investors.
I've noticed on this and other boards still so much obsession with the basis of price comparisons of our precious metals investments with the reserve currency, the dollar, which is very understandable because every one of us still pay bills, buy goods and measure the amount of our monetary standing with a fiat paper dollar total.And i've seen some hand-wringing over TPTB running the metals back down to protect their fiat paper figures this week too.
Before Jason Hommel and another writer whose name i can't recall from another gold web site were talking about the current value of silver against what a days labor brings now in fiat terms, i had posted here an rough comparison of this subject in dollar terms so lets revisit that to get to a point that i finished in that 2 year old post that they failed to consider and that physical accumulation should not be put off but even accelerated, if ones budget allows.
In 1900 the pay for an unskilled laborer was 250-500 dollars a year so a medium level would be 375. At 365 days a year lets just say a dollar a day.There was no income tax back then so you brought home that whole dollar. Skilled craftsman averaged 450-800 dollars a year so lets round that off to say 1.75 dollars a day. Break these figures down to gold and you would have a range of 18-30 double eagles or oz. of au a year. Remember too that back then a work week consisted of 6-12 hr. days usually too.
Nowadays our normal workweek consists of 40 hr. usually over 5 days and will say the medium income is about 36,500(may be closer to 40,000 but am rounding off since it is still very close)Lets say that taxation now takes away 50% of that income(fed'state,loc'sales and gasoline taxes) there are other taxes too but they vary a lot so will leave out for now. That leaves say 18 grand a year for working only 60% of the hours of a century ago. This equates to over 2000 oz. of ag. and 36 oz. of au a year at current spot market prices. Notice that gold is much closer to a gold standard historic norm of a century ago than silver is, and that there is much less silver around now than back then. WHATS MY POINT?
Two things: First is that silver i think could show much more volitility and whipsaw moves over the next few years as it moves more to a historic norm with its ratio to the gold price and as it also readjusts here very soon to the realization that the inventories are almost gone like copper because of its industrial applications over the last 150 years. Two: There could very well be a higher levels of inflation that does not see the dollar price of silver keep up, but after that a deflationary scenario that follows that brings wages and hours worked per week down to the old historic norm in silver.Where say silver is 20 bucks an oz. but a normal wage for a 10-12 hr. day is 20 bucks and by overweighting in silver you have increased your wealth by counting your precious metals not in dollars per oz. but how many days of labor, wealth you have accumulated, oz. in possesion.I think that one must look to historic norms because history always reverts back to its means or averages.
So by gatering in the physical metal while they are still cheap to a days wage you are saving yourself from being underpaid for your labor in a deflationary scenario by puttin off consumption and acquiring the metals now. if a high inflation or hyper-inflationary situation developes instead you have protected your saved labor from inflation. So don't sweat the paper-games and fiat priced whipsaws that are happening short-term.

TownCrierGold star goes to Belgian for the following astute observation#13934312/16/05; 01:37:20

"Those who which to see their goldmetal being marked its real 'value', are supporting the transition into the 'new gold market'. (The physical one of course.) If there was no such plan as "transiton to physical gold market", gold's price would already have risen (much higher) under the old paper-gold-market regime."

Razor sharp as ever. A good scientist knows that sometimes his best evidence, especially of something that is nettlesomely unobserveable in a direct sense (like a black hole, a sub-atomic particle, or a central banker's thoughts), comes in the form of careful observation of the effects being wrought by them upon their associated environment.

The blue ribbon goes to Sir slingshot for this reassuringly keen insight into human nature:

"When gold breaks $700 and pulls back to $698,we will most likely feel the same as now. SMILE EVERYONE."


NedGold putting on an impressive little show overnight......#13934412/16/05; 04:27:43

After hitting an overnight low of $493-ish has rallyed 10 bucks in last 4 hrs. to be $503-ish.

Now I'd like to see a real barn burner, a tidy $20 NY day, maybe a close above $525 would be nice !! I also see a sideways line through yesterdays action at about 512/512 so a close of $515 would be impressive as well.

Let's go POG! Let's go POG !

Now please impress the hell out of me, Mr. Gold. To heck with those paper-pushers with all their expirations and stuff.

Let's show 'em some physical action.

contrarian"Plan" to transition to physical market#13934512/16/05; 04:40:06

I know there's been a lot of discussion on this, but I have to admit I'm skeptical of the existence of any "plan" to transition to a gold physical market. Is there a plan to transition out of fossil fuels? I think it's highly optimistic that peoples from all countries can work together to find a common solution. After all, look at Kyoto, and the US being the holdout.

Seems that things only happen after the fact, when people are forced to confront the new unpleasant reality, and then they'll do something about it. It takes a Triangle Shirtwaist Fire to cause reform in workplace safety, it requires an oil spill to force double hulled tankers, etc., etc. And it perhaps takes a worldwide economic calamity to force the powers that be to change their modus operandi (they'll probably not lose their power, though).

I'm probably opening up another can of works, but these thoughts just occured to me.

BelgianA 5 year flash back :#13934612/16/05; 04:51:38

Dow (paper) still at 2000 ATH for 5 years and a USDX (paper) still above its all time maginot line (80)...whilst so many other parameters have changed "dramatically", within this same 1/2 decade.

$-POG x2 and $-POO x6, both still in their "commodity" status and thus still under derivatizing paper domination.

A US + $ piling up (systemic) deficits (new records), whilst keeping the entire planet functioning on its US-$ reserve system (regime). This "dramatic" event also happened in these (famous) 5 years.

How could this be possible ? Answer : Thanks (despite) to the "FENOMENAL" carry trades + hedges that were allowed to extend the life of the paperization industry serving the $-IMS (cfr Brown-IMF remarks).

No hyper-price-inflation YET, during these past 5 years.
A fantastic far ! The entire paper derivatization regime did a fantastic job, indeed. But is this a reason for smiling ? Yes it is...because the very fundamentals for dramatic change have been planted during this fenomenal period. No wonder Bernanke studied the "Great Depression" period.

The postponement of global hyper-price-inflation, does NOT mean that that monster has been extinguished. It was simply (temporarely) hibernated VERY succesfully AND FOR A VERY GOOD PURPOSE. To postpone the Big Change.

Today, gold's price still moves in its commodity context. And this is still a ..."$-context"...a debt-dollar loaded with systemic deficits and yet still (forced) to be "percepted" as reserve ! Dollar-gold cannot remain associated with $-debt + systemic deficits, covered by giant paperization. The "owners" and "producers" of wealth are not tolerating this any longer. They all want the Big Change coming...and coming sooner than later.

This is the big move (process) out of ridiculous paper fortunes into tangible wealth.

As long as the goldprice (whichever price) remains in the commodity atmosphere...that price will remain absolutely UN-REPRESENTATIVE for the real wealth value (reserve/barter-value) the metal should have. As long as goldmetal remains associated with the fate of fiat is extremely cheap. Once gold represents "wealth", it will cost you an arm and a leg ...per gram.

The owners of the remaining oil/gas reserves, haven't been forcing the globe into hyper-price-inflation, yet !!! Also for a very good reason/purpose. Think Big Change, again.
But the oil/gas/energy-PRICING will not remain "disciplined" their commodity context.

In the sixties, whe had we have paper-power...soon w'll have wealth-power.

contrarianGold $900#13934712/16/05; 04:58:15

On the GATA site, it says that James Turk is predicting $900 gold in 2006. Let's hope he's right this time, as he previously made the prediction back in 2003 that gold would hit $900 range within 12 months (I think it was hitting $948 by Spring 2004 or so) and was proved wrong. Of course when it failed to happen, you didn't hear a peep from him at that time when it didn't happen. Imagine the clanging cymbols and trumpets you would have heard if it had!
contrarianGold $900#13934812/16/05; 04:59:53

Let's hope he's right this time around!
BelgianNed - Contrarian#13934912/16/05; 05:29:56

How can one possibly be "impressed" by a goldprice of only $500/ounce...if one has a complete idea about the total loss of dollar purchasing power over the past 35...70 years !? Not even thinking about the PP losses that are coming.
POG from $250 to $500 is is $500 to $1,000.
Were you impressed by the $POO multiplying by -6- in 5 years ?
Think that you will be really impressed when gold the metal, becomes wealth again.

Funny that a "contrarian" excludes the possible existance of a gold-plan :-).
There have been so many "PTB", Sir contrarian...that lost their (absolute) "power" !

Today's gold, doesn't want to "impress" at all...BECAUSE THERE NEVER WAS ENOUGH GOLDMETAL AVAILABLE AT THESE IDIOTIC PRICES !!! Gold had to remain contained as a super dull commodity and not a wealth tangible.
It was always the dollar-paper that wanted to be impressive.
And it seems to me...that an increasing global majority is getting less and less impressed by the dollar papers...PAPERS !

BoilermakerIndia's Gold Culture, Reality Rules#13935012/16/05; 06:26:14

"Surely, there is a logic why people buy small amounts of gold for their daughters in these villages—gold, for them, is a means of last resort. But here lies the surprise: most of rural India does not, as analysts imagine, buy gold jewellery, but gold coins. Gold jewellery, says an analyst, is bought by urban investors. The rural population doesn't buy jewellery because there is a strong emotional connect with it. A mundane coin is a mundane coin. Sell one today, buy one tomorrow—no guilt, no sentiment.
The three-part logic is crystal clear. One, the front-end of financial intermediaries doesn't offer trust or convenience. Two, the processes are so cumbersome that corruption is inevitable—in the heart of Delhi, I have personally seen an old woman grovel before a post office clerk and finally pay a bribe to get her own money back even as I was told to deploy my small investment through an agent, so I could get part of his commission back. Three, higher returns, therefore, don't matter."

This article was linked in yesterday's Midas at LeMetropole Cafe. It is an excellent insight into a culture that has developed a healthy distrust of government and the financial system that supports it. It is only a matter of time before Westerners are rudely made aware of the danger of trusting institutions that have become corrupt and unaccountable to the ones they supposedly serve.

contrarianPrice Spikes#13935112/16/05; 06:43:30

spikes of $11, $12, such as today, certainly do show the landscape has changed from the ole $6 rule. Change is a comin'!
Chris PowellToronto Globe and Mail features GATA Chairman Bill Murphy#13935212/16/05; 07:09:40

Maybe someday some journalist will consider
putting a few sharp questions about gold to
some central banker....

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Galearis@ Flatliner (Rich) re paper silver#13935312/16/05; 07:45:56

The problem with a futures market in gold and silver is that 98% of the trades are not about the underlying asset….We have the measure of this in the percentage of this market that actually looks at COMEX (for example) as a source of metal. This is why we watch the withdrawals so closely. The folks playing the long and the short sides are still only interested in profit expressed in currency form. For that reason most of the players on the market, regardless of what side of the trade they are on, are actually part of the problem. The solution, as always, is to take delivery from wherever you can to reduce the supply of actual metal available.

When all the local coin and bullion dealers are screaming for product to sell, it generally goes unheard. When General Electric can't find metal to produce a product line, suddenly we have a problem in the equities market. That makes it a national problem that the public might find newsworthy. "Shortage, what shortage!?" "First gasoline and heating fuels and now silver and gold!?" And the next question inevitably is: "if there is a shortage, why is the metal so cheap…?" .Keep in mind the most people think that silver is worth a lot more than it has traded for over the years, and the low price will surprise them all and it will actually look worse for the people running the exchange. All of a sudden the media will find itself announcing hints of market shenanigans just to show the public that it is in the loop,…

Since the precious metals are linked in the public mind, the next market scrutinized will be gold. GATA statements will suddenly be "discovered" and quoted because this sure smells like blood in the water with a little political scandal thrown in for seasoning, and there will be a rush to demonstrate how in the loop the media is on this one too. At this point the media circus will be helping to blow up gold right along with silver –because somebody writes a nice piece about gold and silver in the 1970's. THAT’S when people will really start ignoring paper (and the smell of burning will be detectable). (I know that I will be smelling it!) That's when the CYA statements start coming out of the CFTC. That's when some embarrassing questions get asked in the House of Reps. And so on,…

What fun!

But we aren't anywhere near this point yet. I think that there are likely months and months of life left in paper.

I hope that helps a little.



USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Educational material and assets assembled to get you started right#13935412/16/05; 08:09:22">gold ownership starter kit
R PowellPhysicalman#13935512/16/05; 08:16:30

It is good to hear from you again...I hope all is well in your world.
I noted these words...

"Thats why i don't get too wound up about prices changes over a few days or a weeks time. It's just paper games being played that have not a thing to do with the core fundementals and the long term moral and historical perspecitives that cause most of us to be precious metal bugs, investors."

I compared the paper games, yesterday, to bets on a horse race. Some complain that there is more silver sold than exists in the physical market. There are also usually many more bets on a horse to win a race than there are horses in the race. Do the bets determine the outcome of the race? No, the fastest horse usually wins, whether that horse is a two to one favorite or the long shot. In para mutual racing, the bets determine the odds, but not the outcome.

I often think of the paper positions in markets as bets on whether the price will be higher or lower before some specific future time, much as horse race betters wager on which horse will cross the finishline first. With delivery almost never intended, it might be more descriptively correct to say that these paper players are betting on whether the price rises or falls, rather than to say they "buy" or "sell". With both the horse race + the futures game, the payout or lose is cash.

This is just the paper game here. Obviously if one sells or buys physical in the market, then the supply /demand numbers change...altering the price. And, yes, paper selling can alter price over a short time frame, just as para mutual betting alters the odds. But do the odds determine which horse wins? No, nor do paper games "value" gold. Supply and demand or, as Galearis says, perception of supply and demand determine the price, especially over many, many years. As always, jmho and I'll give it a rest now as I've no more to say. Do I hear cheering? (g)

mikalDoug Casey, Bill Bonner on gold#13935612/16/05; 08:26:12 Where Is Gold Headed? by Bill Bonner
December 16, 2005

Belgian@Rich#13935712/16/05; 08:44:18

Do you really think that in all is the best that is always winning ? you really think that the betting has nothing to do with the outcome of the race ?
Horses, horse-owners, bookmakers, owners(organiser) of the race itself and the many different punters (insiders and outsiders), all interact as to determine the very nature of "the race" >>> goldprice + pricing. Etc...
With over-simplification, one can always find a suitable explanation for a not so evident fenomenon.

contrarianR Powell--Paper Market#13935812/16/05; 08:49:49

I think you have an brilliant analysis of what the paper market means--in essence, nothing.

But we do know a few important things. We know the direction the horses are running, which is forward. And, although we don't know exactly WHEN they will reach the finish line, we do know they WILL reach the finish line.

So the second by second rankings among participants, and who's ahead of whom, are more primary in importance, of course, to the gamblers. But to the spectators who aren't necessarily gambling, the joy is in the race to the finish line.

mdgcBill Murray#13935912/16/05; 08:50:55

Bill Murray up next on ROB TV
YGMMurphy not Murray#13936012/16/05; 09:04:32

Bill Murphy. Yes he's coming on soon.
Ned@ Chris Powell#13936112/16/05; 09:42:55

Thanks for the 'heads up' on the GlobeandMail article. I'm off to the store to scoop a copy. Do you have access to this paper? I can mail you a copy.

I worry about you GATA boys. As gold powers up the game becomes dangerous, yes? Are you being careful?

Best to you and thanks again.

SmeagolGolden Horsepower#13936212/16/05; 10:55:59

Everyone, we likes the disscourse, and we all grow wiser as the Thoughts are laid on the Table.

As It moves higher...the same pecentage moves will be proportionally larger in currency terms.

As for a "horse-racing" gold make the analogy fit...the sspectators...and bettors... ssomehow have come to believe that the MARKET VALUE of the connected/determined by the NUMBER and VALUE of bets placed.

(...and then precious...sss...there's the 'insiders' who KNOW which horse is going to win!)

Golden horses. Get you some ~8-)


mikalGold drivers#13936312/16/05; 11:34:39

Will U.S. Inflation Rise? - FMNN - 12/16/05
Short opinions on long winters

mikal'Euphoric economy' headline highlights#13936412/16/05; 12:22:17

Gold bounces back above $500, finds physical demand -Reuters [Whew, that was close- 'physical demand' might have been lost forever!]
Oil under $60 as milder U.S. weather forecast - Reuters [$60 POO + or - for months on end a line in the sand that traders fight over.]
U.S. Stocks Rise as Oil Drops; Albertson's, Adobe Shares Gain - Bloomberg [That's as good a reason as any for a phony stock rally.]
U.S. Current-Account Deficit Shrinks to $195.8 Billion in Second Narrowing - Bloomberg [Yes, shrinking as it grows, even into 'off-budget' itemizing.]
The weirdest CEO moments of 2005 - CNN/Money [How much weirder can it get?]
CBO: U.S. likely to face long-term fiscal woes - AFX [Translation- Globe facing long-term fiscal woes.]
Closed-End Meltdown -
Creative credit Christmas - CNN/Money [We'll all need plenty of 'creativity' come 2006.]
Home sales have seen better days - San Diego UT [Because "home is where the heart is", not a race to be first.]
House Passes Bill to Fortify Pension Plans - NY Times [Building up illusory 'fortifications'?]
Main Street Believes Whatever Wall Street Tells It - Mysak, Bloomberg [Someone catching on?]
Spectre of rates uncertainty haunts 2006 investor - Reuters
CIT to Restate Due to Hedge Accounting - [More earnings revisions]
Awash in Debt - WSJ
GM Will Suspend 401(k) Contributions - LA Times
BoE warns investors of risks in financial system - FT
German Business Confidence Jumps to Five-Year High - Bloomberg
Bank of Japan to Keep Pumping Cash Into the Economy - Bloomberg [But will consumers spend?]
Number in the news: The growth in imports from China - FT

Goldilox"Lost Forever"#13936512/16/05; 12:27:16

@ mikal,

"Gold bounces back above $500, finds physical demand -Reuters [Whew, that was close- 'physical demand' might have been lost forever!]"

Not forever, as the History Channel would produce "specials" putting us into the category of "Search for the Holy Grail".


GoldiloxDeflafla#13936612/16/05; 14:30:23


One George, an e-friend for many years, thinks that we may have hyper-deflation ("banks get scared …they stop lending"). There is no such animal, George B., and the world, especially, the US, can use some scared bankers. The second George, with whom I have the pleasure of having frequent dinner conversations, is a pilot (he just finished building his own plane likes of which I have never seen) and one day we were just talking what if there are too many drunken pilots. His response was quick and brief: The problem is self-correcting. What he meant, as he elaborated, was that over time enough of drunken pilots will be dead and we wouldn't have the problem of having too many drunken pilots.

We all know areas of the economy where we have incessant deflation, e.g., computers, but it is not economically injurious to anyone except those businesses that can't compete. The problem of excess supply, e.g., memory chips, gets corrected by normal market forces, but the problem is never the falling prices, which is the norm. Therefore, deflation by itself is never a problem and where deflation leads to economic problems it gets corrected one way or another over a reasonable period of time. People would refuse to produce and sell below a certain level of profitability and so the prices cannot fall, or keep falling, below a certain level that allows some minimal profits for all involved, including labor. Yes, there would be some period of pain while the adjustments take place but it will not go on for too long, or get out-of-control, as the term hyper-deflation is meant to suggest.

Long periods of "price stability," Greenspan's favorite term, necessitate some years of deflation to counter some years of inflation. In that sense deflation, even when it is injurious to the economy over short-term, as sustained inflation certainly is, is a part of corrective mechanism and nothing to fear, or fight. To fight deflation at all costs is idiotic because it disables a very important economic function, one of adjustment. It is like disabling the brakes in a vehicle.

Inflated egos of central bankers are self-reinforcing!


Interesting take on Deflation

TownCrierBangladesh -- Gold reaches new high#13936712/16/05; 14:53:41

December 17, 2005 -- Gold prices in the local market continue soaring with guinea (21 carat) selling at Tk 13,200 and 22 carat at Tk 13,830 a bhori (11.66 grams).

...big international investors consider gold an alternative investment to US dollars, gold is soaring in international market.

...big investors and clients in the major economies used to stock dollars in banks and also in the big securities. But faced with prolonged unstable political situation in international arena, the investors now prefer to stock gold instead of dollar, pushing gold prices up...

According to BJMEA statistics, gold prices in the domestic market shot up by around Tk 7,000 a bhori in the last five years.

Bangladeshi jewellers usually source gold from Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar.

^---(from url)---^

Just a reminder that gold sentiment as might be seen or felt in the U.S. market (such as frustration over a price dip) does NOT necessarily correlate to sentiment (and perhaps higher prices) as seen locally in foreign marketplaces.

To be sure, the lustre of gold shines on very brightly in parts of the world that greatly outnumber us. It's an interesting game while it lasts. As expressed in DOLLAR terms, "we" control the price through the preponderance of our financial system's papery derivative market, and yet in terms of METAL, "they" have the final say on the physical market based on the preponderance of their actual ownership of the gold.

Where will "we" stand if these two sides suffer irreconcilable differences of opinion and objectives? The prices that "our" market attempts to set will be rejected as being the price of 'nothing' (imaginary gold), whereas the physical gold that actually transacts on "their" market will command the setting of suitably high local prices that appropriately respect the value of tangible (non-paper) wealth/property.

If you lived elsewhere, it would be easier for you to "get this" more clearly.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#13936812/16/05; 15:35:03">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

FRIDAY Market Excerpts

December 16 (from Reuters) -- Gold eased but still held above the psychological benchmark $500 an ounce on Friday, as some investors lightened up on positions after days of speculative selling and increased volatility in the market.

[COMEX February gold contracts ended Friday's NY session 70 cents lower at $505.90.]

Prices fell to a two-week low at $492.90 during Asian trading as the yen's rise against the dollar sparked more heavy liquidation in Japan, but some bullish players in gold took advantage of the dip to buy.

Sentiment for Japanese TOCOM futures gold was dampened by the strength of the yen as well as an announcement earlier in the week that the exchange would require higher margins for its gold futures contracts from Wednesday.

Gold would certainly remain at the mercy of Japanese investors until they were able to unwind all of their trades.

"We have moved the best part of $50 this week and as such I think that this will frighten people away until the New Year at least, leaving the speculators and the Japanese investors to fight it out," said Simon Weeks, director precious metals at Scotia Mocatta.

While the precious metal could easily fall further due to the weight of selling from Japanese investors and potential year-end liquidation, most expected good buying on price dips.

"I think the move down is overdone," said Peter Hillyard, head of metals sales at ANZ Investment Bank. "In my view, there will be new buying in the market."

Generally gold's prospects ahead were regarded by most analysts and traders as bullish which they attributed to ongoing portfolio diversification from more mainstream investors, coupled with robust demand for physical metal.

Hillyard said he saw gold back up around $520 an ounce by the year end and was looking for higher levels next year. "I think we're in a new era for gold. I don't think it's a flash in the pan. I think the market is going to live mostly above $500 next year," he said.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---

misetichNational Bank Changes Its View On Gold#13936912/16/05; 15:56:35


Well the recent explosion through US$500 resistance appears to have settled the score for many. National Australia Bank economists are among those who believe gold now has a mind of its own.

NAB economists have "fundamentally changed" their view on gold – given a sustained decoupling of gold prices from exchange rates driven by stronger demand as well as investor diversification away from both the US dollar and Euro. They no longer expect gold prices to return to the exchange rate relationship in the short term – with supply and demand fundamentals and other macroeconomic factors driving gold higher.

NAB suggests that since June, gold markets have been extremely bullish – with prices rising across currencies. The previous growth in US dollar gold prices had been largely currency related, rather than reflecting underlying fundamentals.

However, rising investment demand, potential central bank purchases (especially the South African, Russian, South American and Asia banks) and heightened inflation concerns (related to high energy costs) have driven US dollar gold prices to a 24 year high. These factors will continue to drive gold prices higher in the short term, says NAB.

As a result, NAB's forecast gold prices have been revised upwards, with gold averaging US$532 an ounce in 2006, an increase of 19.3 %.

NAB's, forecast is modestly higher than UBS's $525

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express Part ll

misetichU.S. Current-Account Deficit 6.2% of GDP and going higher#13937012/16/05; 16:08:23


`On net, the current account figure will continue to reflect the fundamental problem of the growing trade deficit,'' Abate said. Economists at Lehman projected a $190 million gap for the third quarter.

The gap equals 6.2 percent of gross domestic product, compared with a record 6.5 percent reached in the first three months of the year. The deficit set a record in six of the last seven years. The U.S. would need to attract about $2.1 billion a day to fund the gap and keep the value of the dollar steady.
Still, the Fed chairman said the flow of capital across borders and the reduction of the ``home bias'' has some ``practical'' limit, and the funding of the current-account deficit will become more difficult. Rising deficits ``cannot persist indefinitely,'' and at some point investors will ``balk'' at further financing U.S. imports, especially if returns on assets outside the U.S. begin to outperform those in the U.S.

Sooner, much much sooner than expected countries such as China will invest their funds internally.

...and we're only 3-4 years away from baby boomers retiriment - globally

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll

misetichCBO: U.S. likely to face long-term fiscal woes#13937112/16/05; 16:16:11


WASHINGTON (AFX) - Under most long-range scenarios, the federal government will see bigger deficits and skyrocketing debt unless policymakers take steps to rein in expected growth in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid spending as baby boomers begin to retire, the Congressional Budget Office warned Thursday

"As health care costs continue to grow faster than the economy and the baby-boom generation nears eligibility for Social Security and Medicare, the United States faces inevitable decisions about the fundamentals of its spending policies and its means of financing those policies," the CBO said in its biannual Long Term Budget Outlook
"our country would face deficits as far as the eye can see and enormous fiscal challenges."
"You can't grow your way out of this problem. It's just too big," Holtz-Eakin said

Social security, medicare are the pillars for the Gold Bull Express Phase lll - stay tuned - we've just turned the corner toward it and its in sight....

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part 11

The Invisible HandSurprise! Surprise!#13937212/16/05; 17:20:09

Surprise fall for euro inflation

Eurozone inflation has unexpectedly slowed during November, easing concerns that high oil prices were pushing up the cost of living.
Consumer prices in the 12 nations using the euro fell by 0.3% in November from October, the statistical office said.
That cut the annual rate of inflation to 2.3%, down from 2.5% from October.
The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates for the first time in five years earlier this month, ignoring criticism that it may slow the economy.
"Eurozone politicians will be increasingly concerned about the ECB's motives for higher rates when inflation is coming back on target," said Bear Stearns economist David Brown.
Many analysts predict that eurozone inflation is on its way down and that the annual rate could hit 2% - the ECB's target - in December.
Bear Stearns' Brown reckons that lower oil prices will help push inflation below 2% for much of 2006.

Thoreauly@ misetich (#139370)#13937312/16/05; 18:26:40

The conclusion to this excellent piece -- -- by economist Antony Mueller:

"The graph is presented in order to demonstrate that the collapse tends to come in a seemingly abrupt fashion. In other words: while the margin of creditworthiness seems quite comfortable for a considerable period of time, it is only a small step from being still highly creditworthy (a to b) to enter into bankruptcy (b to c). Once the debt levels move beyond the threshold of creditworthiness, the collapse destroys the value of the pledged assets. In the final consequence, the borrower's currency and its pledged assets, i.e. its government bonds, will become junk."

Very few are going to see this disaster coming, in other words, until it's too late, not realizing that economic reality has caught up with the fraud of government fiat currencies and the welfare socialism that would otherwise be impossible (as Greenspan long ago knew).

Fluctuations aside, then (as they will be minor in retrospect), it's time to "get physical."

Chris PowellGATA Chairman Murphy gets two nationwide audiences in Canada#13937412/16/05; 18:28:02

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Sundeck"Changing view" of gold...inflation...deficits#13937512/16/05; 19:00:10

Ref misetich #139369

Isn't it amazing how so many monetary authorities are now coming out and declaring a new-found belief in much for the long-term strategic thinking abilities of so many of these gurus...they wait to see which way the wind is blowing and then they say: "Aha! From the North at 6.731 knotts!"

Ref misetich #139370...deficits

Australia's current account deficit is also around 6% of GDP, unable to be reduced even with a commodities/resources boom and the best terms-of-trade for many years...

I don't see how deficits are going to improve while-ever Americans and Australians possess the desire for inexpensive manufactured goods from China, India and the like...assisted by very low labour costs in those countries. Sure, Chinese and Indian wages/salaries are going to rise with growing wealth and power in the "middle classes", but that won't happen overnight and until it does, the US (and Ozzie) dollar will remain way over-valued in terms of anything that is manufactured with a significant labor component.

It is striking to compare the relative change (large increase) in the cost of established housing (say) in western countries with the relative change (large decrease) in cost of sophisticated consumer manufactures (plasma screens, computers, digital cameras etc) in those same countries. Equating the term "inflation" with an index like the CPI can be very misleading indeed.

Thankfully the western world appears to have stopped harping about the need for China to revalue the apppears to be dawning on some that even a major revaluation would not matter a tinker's cuss when it comes to offsetting the labour costs between China and the US.

The US current account deficit will not be lowered until the US dollar is no longer used as the defacto world currency standard and contracts for oil, gold, resources, commodities and all other items of international exchange are written in other numeraire (euros, yen, renminbi, pounds) or in barter-terms. In this way the "extra-curricular" function of those other currencies can be expanded to compete with the dollar.

Just rambling around aimlessly on a Saturday morning...


Smeagol...we KNEW we ssmelled ssomething fishy!#13937612/16/05; 19:17:21

...a month ago...and it's not good fissh either, O no, precious...

[Smeagol (11/16/05; 17:59:15MT - msg#: 138027)

These, taken together:

Ssnip from link posted by Sssir The Invisible Hand (11/16/05; 16:00:24MT - msg#: 138021)

"The proposal to set up the IOB was first put forward in Iran's Third Development Plan (2000-2005). Mohammad Javad Assemipour, who heads the project, has said that the exchange will strive to make Iran the main hub for oil deals in the region and that it should be operational by March 2006."

...and the Fed:

"On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate. The Board will also cease publishing the following components: large time deposits, repurchase agreements (RPs), and Eurodollars. ..."


December 17, 2005
The Grand Illusion
by Rob Kirby


"What strikes me as being even odder is the date - March 23, 2006 - that the Fed plans to cease reporting this data. Any guesses as to what else [of major significance] is supposed to happen on or about this date?

It just so happens that on March 20, 2006 - everybody's favorite Middle Eastern Nation, Iran - is scheduled to begin trading oil for Petroeuros on their own "newly minted" Iranian Oil Bourse [IOB].

So What You May Say?

Call me silly, but has anyone noticed that the Fed's last report of M3 just happens to be the week prior to the first day of trade on the IOB? You see, if countries like Japan and China [and other Asian countries] with their trillions of U.S. dollars no longer need them [or require a great deal less of them] to buy oil - does anyone suppose they might begin a wholesale liquidation of their U.S. Bonds [the primary instrument where foreigners 'store' their U.S. dollars]?"


PRITCHOFrom Richard Russell - - - - Latest Comments - - -#13937712/16/05; 21:04:30

RR nails it down again -Note the last paragraph.Pity that some of the so called "market timing" letters don't have the courage or class to admit they've been wrong more often than right.Buy & hold has worked well for me.

December 16, 2005 -- Back in the late-1940s I worked for a small textile firm. The company consisted of three partners, a bookkeeper, and yours truly. I was the designer. The three partners were each millionaires. They had made their fortunes during the Great Depression.

How'd they do it? Here's how. In those days families saved money by cutting and sewing their own clothes. Every family that could afford it had a Singer electric sewing machine.

What these three partners did was buy large quantities of cotton goods -- printed or woven. Then they would cut the materials into three and four yard pieces and package them attractively for retailers to sell to the ladies who sewed. Their cut-and-package concept turned out to be a very profitable business.

One day I asked the boss a question -- "Mr Weiss, how did you and your partners keep up your morale during the Depression?"

My boss smiled and replied, "One thing we didn't have to worry about was the price of our stock, which we held privately. One of the most demoralizing situations during the great bear markets of the '30 occurred as people watched the price of their stocks going down the drain. Believe me, in those days it was a great advantage not to have your stock listed. We knew we were doing well, and we never had to go through the frightening process where our stock might drop 80 or 90 percent, regardless of how well we were doing."

I never forgot that lesson, and I think it applies to those of us who are holding gold coins or gold shares today. I view gold items as long-term holdings. In fact, where the coins are concerned, I'll probably never sell them -- I'll probably leave them to my wife and kids. Therefore, I don't give a damn where the price of gold goes this month or this year or next year. I believe that ultimately gold is going considerably higher -- probably higher than even the gold bulls are thinking about today. Real bull markets often go higher than anyone thinks possible. But few people are able or willing to hang on to their items all the way through a bull market -- to somewhere near the final top. Why? Too many scares along the way.

So ironically, I almost think it would be better for the average holder of gold to be unaware of the daily price of his coins or gold shares. After all, do you call your real estate broker and ask him to give you an estimate of the price of your home every day? If you love your home, and you own it free and clear, chances are you don't give a damn what it's appraised for today or tomorrow or even next year. You're going to live in your home until your old age or until you're simply tired of it, and ready to move somewhere else -- probably to San Diego (everybody seems to be moving here).

So that's the lesson I learned from my old boss back in the late-1940s. If you have gold or a home, and it's a long-term holding and you own it free and clear, then stop driving yourself crazy about the price. Remember, in this business your emotions can be, and usually are, your single worst enemy.

The story above has quite a bit to do with my attitude towards gold. I don't buy gold futures. I don't buy gold on margin. I don't buy gold puts or calls. I don't trade gold. Therefore, when gold ran up to 540 on December 12 I didn't get excited. And then when gold dropped to just above 500 yesterday I didn't get depressed. You see, on a daily or even weekly or monthly basis, I don't give a damn where gold goes. I don't care because I'm holding gold in terms of years, not months or weeks or days. And I own it outright. I don't own it they way half of America own their homes -- namely, on (mortgage) margin.

That isn't true of my gold shares. Which is the reason why I suggested two-thirds gold bullion to one-third gold stocks. A gold mine can blow up, it can be flooded, it can run low on reserves, it can be struck by workers, it can be taken over by a government, it can be unreasonably taxed, it can do any damn thing. The odds are heavy that a good gold mine stock like Newmont will go up with gold, and if gold goes substantially higher, Newmont will almost surely beat bullion on a relative strength basis. Newmont has leverage, gold bullion doesn't.

I note that quite a number of gold-haters are now predicting a nerve-shattering collapse in gold. You want the truth -- over the near-term nobody knows where gold is going. NOBODY. Of course, that doesn't prevent fools from acting like cock-sure market mavens.

White Hillscontrarian,gold 900#13937812/16/05; 21:48:17

It seems to me that James Turk, in predicting gold 900 for 2004, did what many of us have done, underestimate the lengths that the PTB will go to in keeping the game going.I think he is right and we will see 900 in 2006. However, if it turns out 2007 that is ok also. Remember "unstoppable inflation, balance of payments and budget deficits, record gold and silver prices-these signs tell us that the reform process is already underway." and Iran in March will begin trading oil for Petroeuros. I think. Dr. Pick was right, his timing was just off by 25 or so years. White Hills
968Decisions taken by the Governing Council of the ECB#13937912/17/05; 00:34:10

ECB's foreign reserve management

On 15 December 2005 the Governing Council approved several amendments to the framework for the management of the foreign reserves of the ECB, to be implemented in the course of January 2006. The new framework foresees a so-called currency specialisation, according to which euro area national central banks (NCBs) will no longer necessarily participate in the operational management of both a US dollar and a Japanese yen portfolio on behalf of the ECB. An NCB may also decide to abstain from the operational management of the foreign reserves of the ECB, while continuing to participate in the strategic choices regarding the management of foreign reserves. The changes to the framework have been introduced as a step towards achieving the objective of rationalising and making more efficient the decentralised implementation of foreign reserves management within the Eurosystem. The changes are internal to the Eurosystem and will thus have no market impact.

On 15 December 2005 the Governing Council adopted a Guideline amending Guideline ECB/2000/1 on the management of the foreign reserve assets of the European Central Bank by the national central banks and the legal documentation for operations involving the foreign reserve assets of the European Central Bank. The Guideline takes into account the use of the European Master Agreement (EMA) for certain ECB foreign reserve management transactions with counterparties organised or incorporated in Sweden. The Guideline will be published in the Official Journal of the EU and on the ECB's website.
Towncrier, any thoughts on this one ?

968BoE warns investors of risks in financial system #13938012/17/05; 01:15:29;_ylt=Ah0lNKnVwBnVfA4wdCl15xL2ULEF;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl

By Peter Thal Larsen,Banking Editor
Fri Dec 16, 4:45 AM ET

The Bank of England on Friday issued another warning that banks and investors may be underestimating risks in the financial system amid a continued search for returns and growth.

In the latest Financial Stability Review, the Bank repeats concerns that the availability of cheap debt for private equity buyouts and the continued flow of money into hedge funds show that some financial players may be underestimating the risks they are facing.

The Bank's decision to repeat its warning reflects a growing concern among regulators and central bankers about the effects on the financial system of an unprecedented period of macroeconomic stability and low long-term interest rates, which have helped to fuel a global surge in liquidity.

"The continued 'search for yield' could be leading some investors to underestimate risk, particularly if they focus on the absolute level of yields in an environment where long-term interest rates are low," the Bank says. "And some investors might harbour overly optimistic views about the capability of policymakers tooffset shocks to the macro-economy."

The Financial Stability Review, a twice-yearly asses-sment of the risks to the financial system, is designed to point out regulators' worries. In a speech last month Sir Andrew Large, the Bank's outgoing deputy governor, argued that regulators round the world should review liquidity standards to make them better equipped to handle any shocks.

In its analysis, the bank concludes that the underlying economy is sound and that banks and companies are in good shape. It also acknowledges that the development of new financial instruments, such as credit derivatives, have improved banks' ability to manage risk and spread it throughout the financial system.

Nevertheless, the Bank says: "Financial innovation and macroeconomic stability do not necessarily mean that the financial system has become intrinsically less risky.

"Current conditions may have generated a degree of over-optimism about the underlying risk of some financial products. More-over, this appears broa-dly based."

The Bank is keen to stress that hedge funds, which are nimble and able quickly to take advantage of mispricing in the financial markets, can help ease strains after events such as Standard & Poor's decision to downgrade Ford and General Motors to "junk" status earlier this year.

However, it is also concerned that in newer markets, hedge funds could respond to a shock by all being forced to sell, with the result that liquidity dries up.
Do you have physical metal in possession ?

GoldiloxECB decision#13938112/17/05; 01:45:43


My first thought, after reading the post, was that Greenspan has no monopoly on opaque statements!

My second thought was that it sounds like a European version of the "Jekyll Island" gang, where they want to further centralize banking power.

968@ Goldilox / ECB decision#13938212/17/05; 02:19:02

Thank you.

Why especially just the dollar and the yen according to you ?

GoldiloxWhy dollar and Yen?#13938312/17/05; 03:33:47

@ 968,

Perhaps because these are the two largest trading blocks with currencies least backed by reserves or natural resources? Dollar and Yen make up the lion's share of their currency reserves.

China's currency is not yet a true international medium of exchange, due to its $-fix.

Just a guess. I'll defer to those more well versed in banking and currency hogwash for a better explanation.

BelgianTrends...#13938412/17/05; 03:39:52

There must be good reasons why we see a growing global tendancy of diversification into the "combination" (!!!) of another currency system (EMU) and gold !

To diversify into another currency, next to the dollar, is no big deal on itself. To diversify into paper gold, next to the dollar, never was a big deal. But...a diversification into the combination of EMU + Gold, is a big change. Simply because there is the enormous potential for synergy, resulting in freegold.

When the recent POG rise (to $540) was aborted (contained)(TOCOM margins), we witnessed again that gold (the paper gold price) is still associated with fiat. The "present" goldpricing system, needed some shorting, once again, as to avoid a possible flight into the physical goldmetal. Cash settlement and no physical delivery. Take away the synergy between goldmetal wealth and another currency system. Consolidate the existing balance between the $-IMS and paper goldprices. Still the very nature of the present gold market. A further inflation of this paper gold market.

GOLD and FIAT shall NOT trade *-independantly-* from each other ! That's what the goldprice knock back ($540 > $492) wanted to make clear, once again. Thanks Japan.

Will this recent gold action stop or delay the diversification tendancies ? No, on the contrary. Because "fiat-gold" has become less credible, once again, to the advantage of the gold-wealth concept. As the $-Trillions of japanese "savings" will soon find out (experience).

The ongoing gold actions are further undermining the dollar's reserve function (use). Forget about the old concept of "fiat-gold" (FIAT GOLD) backing a reserve currency. Goldmetal wealth and fiat must trade INDEPENDANTLY from each other !!! The currency that wins the global price of being associated with gold-wealth, will be used in its appropiate function of currency-reserve, next to gold-wealth-reserve (synergy).

Goldmetal ownership, as wealth, was NEVER ment to be used (abused) for -leverage gain-... nor ... -credit lending-.
That's why a growing fraction of wealth owners/producers are increasingly diversifying into the gold-wealth concept.
Brown feels the heat and suggests (dramatic) IMF reforms. Too little, too late Brownie.

The diversification tendancies (out of the $-IMS) are a need to "change" -valuations- !!! The global diversifiers whish to break gold "free" from modern money-attachments. Fiat currency has no intrinsic value...Gold with wealth status, has. And that's the main understanding that an absolute majority on this planet still has, regardless of the existing $-IMS, where gold's wealth status has been taken away. This same majority wants, no more than in the past 2 1/2 decades, to trade gold as wealth and certainly not as a currency derivative, anymore. Free goldmetal is "totally" price-unfixed gold ! The official diversification tendancies, all evolve into that direction.

The recent POG knock down was yet another attempt to control gold for the one and only sake of past, present, future > fiat money DEBT viability !!! In the mean time all those savers' wealth is being destroyed. And we know, without any doubt, that Japan "is" (also) a Big saver.

The gold-fiat CONFLICT is rising in fierce competition with wealth concepts !!!

Fiat AND fiat-gold is a NON WEALTH HOLDING !!! Society is in the process of trading (yep Rich) its way back to where it all started.

BelgianBoE warns investors of risks in financial system !? (#968)#13938512/17/05; 05:25:34

Always repeting those warnings, whilst the risks for the financial system keep rising ! Repeat > FINANCIAL SYSTEM !!!

It is the IMF's dream, seeing those excess, arch-conservative, petro(and other)dollars going into more "business" and NOT into diversified (synergetic) alternatives (savings). The global "imbalances" thing !
But this time, it is much different than the seventies.

But a "financial system" without (wealth) a dying one. Those (modest) repetitive official risk warnings are in vain and only a small cloth for the ongoing bleeding .

Wealth doesn't has permanently to search for "return" !!! What is the productivity content of massive derivatives on massive credit !!!??? Zero.

The political credibility of the dollar's reserve status is already death (thanks to the systemic $-deficits), whilst goldmetal continues to evolve as the next 100% wealth reserve. DO NOT BET ON THE (leverage of) FIAT GOLD (paper horse)...but on the precious wealth metal (owner of the horse) !!! Because the risks in the fiat-gold arena (horse race) have also increased to very alarming levels (betting infla)...just as the risks in the present financial system (the $-reserve one).

And the Aussies (with 6% deficits) should take the South Afrikan CB suggestion as an example...
Changing their vieuw on gold is not it at your CB as wealth.
When the goldprice shows early signs of rising against all currencies...that means that we are on the road to having gold AND currencies evolving towards INDEPENDANT trading.

misetichChina - A need to diversify its reserves into GOLD#13938612/17/05; 05:46:28


China's problems stem in large part from excess foreign exchange reserve accumulation. With its official reserves now around $770 billion — up 50% from a year ago and rapidly closing in on Japan's $840 billion — China is forced into massive buying of dollar-denominated assets in order to prevent the renminbi from rising too rapidly and jeopardizing its export competitiveness. Yet, lacking a well-developed domestic debt market, China can only sterilize a portion of these purchases; the rest leaks back into its domestic financial system — leading to excess liquidity and concomitant asset bubbles. The property bubble in coastal China is a worrisome manifestation of these risks. Moreover, with China holding an estimated 70% of its reserves in the form of dollar-denominated assets, the mark-to-market costs of a significant further depreciation of the dollar would represent a major fiscal blow to the Chinese economy. Finally, another outgrowth of this perceived symbiosis is an ever-widening bilateral trade imbalance between the US and China that only heightens the risks of trade frictions between the two nations.

There's a bubble of biblical proportions of US $ denominated assets, accumulated and being added onto by ASIA's CB's

These CB's accumulation is now in the TRILLIONS

One can just imagine what it would do to the price of GOLD, as a "small" proportion of this excesses is converted into GOLD

Its inevitable....and stay on THE GOLD TRAIL

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll ( preparations are well advanced for the launch of Part lll)

BelgianTOCOM + COMEX#13938712/17/05; 05:50:40

The goldprice action of the past days (minus 8%) is a great effort from these two exchanges to bring the goldprice back in line with the currencies' exchange rate. Reconfirmation of fiat-gold and avoidance of a rush to the physical wealth goldmetal on the spot market. Avoiding that "delivery" of the goldmetal would happen.
Most probably because the dollar exchange rate might go down, again, after the (past) technical rebound due to the repatriation of (tax) dollars.

Dollars back within US borders don't suffer from loss in purchasing power outside the borders due to decline in exchange rate. On condition of course that the price inflation within the US doesn't rise.

The non US part of the world is left to trade the masses of inflated (exported) debt dollars, increasingly amongst themselves. Not that big problem, for the time being, for dollar investors but dollar-savings are not waiting to be slaughtered. With the exception of Japan, of course. Did we ever heard Japan signalling any diversification ? Did Hong Kong profited from the tocom/comex recent goldprice shorting...with uptake of physical gold ?

Thoughts anyone ?

misetichUS - Current Account Gap to Pass 7% of GDP#13938812/17/05; 06:12:42

Richard Brenner - MS
Current Account Gap to Pass 7% of GDP

It's been more than a year since we warned that the US current account deficit — the imbalance with the rest of the world in trade in goods and services, investment income, and transfers — might not peak until it reached 6½% of GDP. Once again, we were too optimistic. Despite a one-time surge in insurance receipts that temporarily narrowed the Q3 current account gap and a healthy October rebound in export growth, it now appears that the red ink could easily eclipse 7% of GDP before stabilizing and eventually shrinking.
Surging energy imports at higher prices made up the shortfall; imports are $100 billion higher than a year ago.
We estimate that the 1.4% rise in nonfuel import prices over the year ended in November increased the nominal merchandise trade gap by roughly $20 billion over that period.
A renormalization of US interest rates is a third factor............. Our colleague Shital Patel estimates that, other things equal, renormalizing US interest rates could add $80–100 billion (0.6–0.8% of GDP) to the current account gap over the next two years.
Attention Budgeteers: Get Ready for More Red Ink

Looking forward, rising spending and a flattening out in tax receipts suggest the good news on the federal budget is, at least temporarily, over: We project the deficit will widen to $410 billion in FY2006, or 3.1% of GDP

Risks are rising - though the majority of global leaders, investors and the general public is by and large remains complacent

A financial tsunamy can occur at any moment - Fiat, whether it be the US $, Euro, Yen is being severally challenged - Physical Gold is the ultimate currency and storage of wealth

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express - Part ll

Belgian@misetich#13938912/17/05; 07:13:28

I very much enjoy your return and good posts. But allow me to say that >>> ...ultimate currency AND store of wealth is a "contradiction" in terminis. The goldprice never compensated the loss of purchasing power of any currency...AND WILL NEVER DO SO !!!! Gold-wealth is going to become MUCH MORE than simply compensation for loss in fiat purchasing power.

The reason why I keep on repeating this "ad nauseum", is because it's so essential/fundamental on the ongoing change in gold's status. I do keep hammering on this "fundamental", because it explains WHY the goldprice is NOT doing what most observers expect it to do. Staring at the goldprice in function (comparaison) of any fiat currency is looking at the wrong side of the coin, from the wrong angle.

Gold-wealth is architected as to not "destroy" the global economy. Fiat-gold would only bring chaos.

At present, the changing (zigzag rising) of POG is irrelevant. It is the very nature of the existing fiat-gold-market that is about to change !

Is the POG rise + Dubai a coincidence !? It isn't Sir. Dubai is a starter for gold-trade of another nature ! They go officially "physical" and are gradually increasing this compared to the past 25 years. Think petro-dollars, for the time being. Gold evolving officially in concert with official oil-VALUE (read wealth)...less and less associated with the dollar-reserve system !

Thanks misetich.

slingshotDubai, Petrodollars,Physical#13939012/17/05; 08:45:55

If Dubai is only accepting physical for oil, a question of payment or mode of payment come to mind.

When you say physical, I am thinking putting it on a boat or plane and delivering it right to Dubai's doorstep. Do they ship the gold up front of after the order?
That will be a hard pill for countries to swallow.
Yet if you scale down the payment amount and for example.
A good chainsaw or generator goes foe about $500. Wow! Gold is at $500. How hard would it be to pay/trade/exchange one for one? If the price of gold is close to the purchase price. At the end of the day all the receipts are added up and the armored car comes and take the money to the nearby depository of the FED. Now if I was the government and wanted the Gold back and at the same time not tick the populace off. What better way than have the people spend it and in the returns, KEEP the GOLD.
ONE TIME USAGE. No Confiscation here. Just doing what the banking systems does normally.


Flatliner@trends…#13939112/17/05; 12:12:21

Belgian, how would you expect to trade "Goldmetal wealth"?

Also, thanks for the insight in all your posts.

Druid@Flatliner#13939212/17/05; 12:35:15

Druid: You wait for a super high price and sell an ounce or two for a very high interest rate.
TownCrierFlatliner and Druid, ???#13939412/17/05; 14:25:24



USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.USAGOLD puts a world of gold at your fingertips...#13939512/17/05; 14:27:20">gold -- a global calling card
TownCrierFlatliner and Druid, I'll try again less cryptically#13939612/17/05; 14:43:16

My mind simply boggled for a minute there trying to fathom the topic. The shorter answer is the better, as follows.

Q: "How would you expect to trade gold?"

A: "Sell an ounce or two."


Belgian@Flatliner#13939712/17/05; 15:52:26

The real notion of real "wealth" has become difficult to understand in the western -throw away- culture.
One doesn't "trade" one's "wealth", under whatever form, simply for the sake (purpose) of making a string of fiat profits or losses. The purpose of accumulating wealth is not for "making" money.

The objects that your family labels as "precious" for whatever reason are not for sale at any given price. Because these objects mean wealth to you. It is only under "special" circumstances that you exchange parts of your wealth for something else of the same value.

Vietnamese pay their house with gold. When the exchange value of their gold-wealth rises, they have to give less goldmetal for the same house. The exchange, gold to house, goes through the currency (numeraire) as fiduciar intermediair.

The oilreserve owners know that their product (oil) has wealth value and want to exchange it for another wealth tangible (gold).
Succesful producers of products want to consolidate part of their profits in wealth tangibles, which they do NOT want to trade for making more money. They are already succesful in making money with the production and trade of their products. Why trade their accumulated gold (or any other) wealth tangible ? One doesn't trade the "family jewels" either.

Indians exchange their gold wealth for currency, only for VERY important reasons/occasions. They don't trade their gold wealth for the reason of a goldprice rise.

The same reasoning goes for -state gold wealth reserves-.'s wealth status has been taken away by the fiat system...exactly by transforming goldmetal into papergold, that is permanently traded for making more of the same intrinsically worthless fiat. The barter value of goldmetal has been neutralized.

There are no options and futures on the Mona Lisa or on your precious objects that you keep in possession, at home. But there is plenty of speculative paper on your gold coins, with the sole purpose of un-wealthing it.

Real Wealth is not seen by its owner as a fiat profit generating product. The Mona Lisa IS such an enormous wealth tangible that it will not be traded for ages. The wealth of the Mona Lisa permanently increases. But when the museum who owns it gets into financial trouble, it might consider to sell the ML and survive.

A good stock can never be relied upon as to represent one's "wealth". Because there are a trainload of derivatives on that stock that determine (manage) the exchange value (price) of the stock in a non physical stock (derivative) market. Idem dito for anything else financial that is OVER-traded, non physically. Everything has become derivatized and this has "changed" the very nature of the markets. It has become the unproductive hysteria of making (worthless) money (fiat). There are no "share-HOLDERS" anymore...w've all become "traders" of the price and not "holders" of the underlying intrinsic value. That's why debt could proliferate as it is. The whole financial industry has become a casino. Not for the creation of the so called, needed liquidity (is BS).
This has nothing to do with "investment" but degraded to pure price-swing gambling.

Much of our planet still remains conservative and is not going to participate any further into this derivatizing hysteria. Trade and speculation is OK, gambling always ends bad.

I will keep my goldmetal through thick and thin because I still do believe, in a consistent way, that gold's wealth status will be reinstated. I will sell goldmetal only when I need to. Otherwise, the next in line will herit it.
The day that anyone gives me ONE single argument that gold will never become wealth (again)...all the Belgian's metal will be sold, any (paper)price.

I'm always asking myself why "-traders-" chose the dull/boring goldprice to make their money in the financial arena...when there are thousands of other financials that move/fluctuate MUCH more violently and with a multiple of leverage ? Today, when I see the goldmine leverage rapidly fading away,...I want to ask the same question a bit louder.
Goldprice "traders" are attracted by gold, because their intuition tells them that gold's price is indeed obscenely low. Very good reason to "speculate", yes even gamble on the goldprice, by preference with leverage of course. I doubt it very seriously that the speculation/gamble will be rewarding versus the wealth that goldmetal will represent when the revaluation process is finalized !? I am afraid that the evolving gold fundamentals do not favor a profitable gamble on the very low goldprice. Because there is a very good reason (reasons) WHY this goldprice is still sooooo low. >>> It is the old gold market...MARKET... that has to transform (is transforming) !!! Have not been waiting with the accumulation of goldmetal in possession, up until I "see" that new gold market established. Those who wait for the fact...will certainly have much less metal weight as wealth. Gold is not a mater of making speculative money, but in the first place preserving one's savings. On top of this preservation, gold will give you "wealth" at the end of the road ! Simply because its wealth status has been taken away during the past 8 decades. And its wealth status will come back, because any financial system on top of an economy cannot keep functioning without a wealth consolidator. Today, most of what the general public labels (accidently) as wealth (rather fortune) is nothing but debt...massive debt. How can one possibly preserve debt ?

The Invisible HandCan a Nuclear Strike on Iran Be Prevented?#13939812/17/05; 17:15:07

The Iranian Oil Bourse is scheduled to open March 2006. This exchange will trade oil for euros, not dollars. This will allow the euro to gain a firm foothold in international oil trading and greatly weaken the current dollar supremacy in that market. Given the dollar's already weak position relative to other currencies, this will seriously threaten the dollar's position as the world's reserve currency. This would be catastrophic for the U.S. The real or main reason we invaded Iraq was not just the oil reserves, but Saddam in September 2000 switched from dollars to euros for oil payment. The U.S. invaded in June 2003. Iraq switched back to selling oil in dollars. So clearly The United States cannot allow Iran to open their oil bourse. See this.

MKBelgian#13939912/17/05; 17:26:01

Just wanted to commend you on an outstanding post (#139397). I would add that the same thinking with respect to gold held as personal wealth can be applied to the nation state as well -- gold as a national wealth asset not to be disturbed except under the most serious circumstances. That is why I come down hard on unnecessary national gold sales. It is good to see the Merkel government taking the same tack.
HenriInvisable Hand 139398#13940012/17/05; 17:45:11

Do not disagree with this but wish to add another piece of this developing pattern of response. The day the US Banks pulled the carpet out from under the Argentine banking system was only a couple hours after they had announced that they were considering diversifying their national reserves to take a larger share of Euro denominated investments...this after having sold a tranch of gold a couyple months earlier. Coincidence? or just yet another sad commentary on the lengths the banksters will go to to maintain US dollar hegemony
canamamiIran - Nuclear - Euros/Dollars/Oil/Gold#13940112/17/05; 18:13:43

Sometimes an obsession with something - including gold - can blinker one to reality.

If Iran gets nailed, it has very, very little (if anything) to do with dollar or euro settlement, and everything to do with not letting a dangerous and apocalyptic enemy get their hands on nuclear weapons.

Is the US threatening Norway over Euro settlement for its oil? I'm a Canadian. We have lots of oil, maybe more than Saudi Arabia. The Yanks may sometimes be total bozos, but I don't envison a US invasion over how Canada gets paid for its oil.

If Iran and Saudi get nailed, it's because they are aggressively promoting and acting upon a belief system to which the rest of the world refuses to be subjected. Nothing more, nothing less.

The Invisible HandMake deals and be merry for tomorrow we shall crash#13940212/17/05; 18:25:35

Business Editor: So tonight we're going to party like it's 1998
By my maths, the crash should come some time in 2007. Enjoy this year, because you will pay for it later.

TownCrierThe year we watched the rise of oil, gold, China and India#13940312/17/05; 19:56:12

Sunday Herald (18 December 2005) -- IF you looked at 2005 from a distance you would scarcely believe that the oil price shock – which saw the price of crude break through $70 per barrel in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina – would have such limited economic effects.

Compare it to the earlier oil spikes of 1973 and 1980 which provoked severe bouts of "stag flation" (a nasty combination of recession and high inflation) which paralysed the global economy for several years afterwards.

...Mirroring the rise in oil this year has been a parallel rise in the price of gol