USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

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BelgianGold - Oil - II#1354899/1/05; 01:07:17

The dollar-hegemon wants to drive a wedge in the forming coalitions of energy/resource-owners (1) and their new clients (2). Both (1) + (2) wish to accumulate "real-wealth" (gold) for what they both are producing and delivering to the planet.
The ($)wedge = 1/ War on oil/gas terror and -
2/ Making gold not reflecting its wealth function (freeze) !

All the euro-fiat virgin has to wait until the new, solidly formed coalition, comes for the euro's MTM-gold dowry...and mary, live long, lose virginity...etc.

Note, that it is NOT only about oil...but about what (wealth-prosperity) is being produced with whom and how !!!

Why does the East hates the dollar ?

GoldiloxGold Confiscation - Gnazzo#1354909/1/05; 03:44:17


The Constitution authorized the Government to coin money, not to issue it. To coin and to issue are two entirely different acts. To coin means that the Government was granted the power to establish a mint to stamp out coins from bullion brought to it by private owners. The coins minted were not Government property; they remained the property of the private citizen who brought their bullion to the mint to be so coined.

To issue money means to create money. The government was never granted the power to issue money, or to create money. It was granted the power to coin money out of already existing bullion owned by the public. The State did not hold title or own the coined money, the people retained title. The only way the government could possess money was through the power to tax or borrow – not through the power to create or issue.

For the first seventy years of our new country, Congress faithfully followed the intent of the Constitution. During this time, no paper currency or bills of credit were issued by the Government. Private bank notes and gold and silver coins minted by the Government for private owners were sufficient means to run the economy.

The Civil War abruptly changed the adherence to sound money principles. Secretary of the Treasury Salmon P. Chase recommend to Congress the issuance of United States notes, popularly called "greenbacks," and Congress obliged. Government debt was now allowed to circulate as the currency. This was the first legalized counterfeit issued by the United States Government, as it went against the constitutional standard.


A discussion of the Double Eagle case and the Constitutional principles of "money" and "government ownership" - not that many in Washington care a whit for the Constitution these days.

GoldiloxCrime Pays - Bill Murphy#1354919/1/05; 03:53:35


Last evening the Working Group on Financial Markets and The Gold Cartel began chipping away again at the foreign currencies like they did on Sunday night in preparation for this morning's rape of the gold bulls. With oil headed for the moon and the damage in the US Gulf catastrophic (and quite negative for the US economy), the cabal forces went in for the kill and moved further to flush out the heavily long funds. The cabal's motive was obvious and they used their usual See Spot Run tactic again. Look kindergarten American public:

"Oil is soaring to $70 per barrel, natural gas is going bananas and commodity prices are making new 25-year highs. However, this is not inflationary and of no real concern, just look at the falling gold price."’

Is that retarded, or what? The sick part is this is just how Planet Wall Street will report all of this. In addition, they will blame the speculators for the collapse of the gold price. It is beyond absurd.

Yet, it is even more Machiavellian than that. The last thing the Orwellians want is the US intermediate and long-term interest rates to soar in reaction to soaring inflation in the US.

They want to prevent, as much as possible, an economic/stock market debacle – which could easily kick in due to recent developments. Not only will sharply higher interest rates hurt the stock market, they will bury the real estate market with energy prices surging. Were gold to have soared above $440, it would've confirmed the inflation scenario and affected the interest rate picture, perhaps dramatically so. With gold collapsing, they can point to how these recent developments are negative for the economy and thus justify LOWER rates, which is what happened.

Today's interest rate vehicle moves were most likely affected by early buying from the Caribbean Pirates, a.k.a. known as Fed monetization.

The ten-year note rose ¾ to 111 22/32.

The 30-year bond gained 26/32 to 117 ¾.

Both are substantial moves higher (lower rates) with US inflation rocketing.

What no one is explaining is that if the case for rates to fall was expected US economic weakness, why is the dollar so strong? There is no plausible explanation for the euro trashing except the one put forth by GATA – meaning its lowering was effected to bash gold and keep investors from fleeing US financial markets. It makes no sense to have the dollar rally so much with such economic turmoil in the Gulf and US interest rates sinking as they are.

This morning the Working Group on Financial Markets took the euro down to 121.70. This induced heavy fund gold selling on the opening, turning most all the gold moving averages bearish. The spec funds sold their longs with a vengeance. Gold Cartel Mission Accomplished. That is all they had to do. Once the gold selling deluge was under way, the euro rallied back to unchanged. When gold rallied $2 off its low and threatened to recover, they sent the euro right back .25 points. Once gold closed on the Comex, the euro rallied again. It was clear as could be.

It is now 2:29 CDT and the euro is on its high of the day at 122.24, up .03, with gold closed. This information re the dollar and gold (yesterday) was compiled for two reasons:

*It clearly lays out exactly how The Gold Cartel maneuvered their scam and is an FYI for you.

*When the US markets fall apart the public (and Congress) will be screaming for an explanation of what happened and why. MIDAS will hand them all the sordid details (who and when) over a seven year period which led to the market collapses. It will be handed to the Congressional investigating committees on a gold platter.

Yesterday gold printed $440 and was ready to rocket. Had gold been close to $440 today the price might be $455 right now with what oil and commodity prices did. Instead the lowlifes orchestrated an illegal raid to make sure gold would be annihilated just when it should have roared.

Worth repeating from yesterday's MIDAS:

The bottom line for us:

The more reason for the gold price to go up, the more The Gold Cartel swings into action to make sure it does not do so. This latest obnoxious ramping up of the dollar, when all the news was negative for days, is proof of point.

Also as mentioned the past week, gold will not go through $440 like a normal market, because gold is a rigged market. It will blow through $440 or not at all. Today, it was the latter.


How much stronger does the case need to be before the courts in "emperor's wardrobe" are awakened to the coup!

GoldiloxKatrina Economic Impacts Mount#1354929/1/05; 04:06:12


From our numerous "readers who "get it" comes this:
"In 1105 the Bots were suggesting a decoupling of the price of oil and the price of distillates. If you read the quote from today's Bulldog edition (below) you will see how this could happen. With Louisiana handling a quarter of all shipping and tanker traffic the USA could be in a situation where it cannot even import oil to refine. Over ten refineries in that region are effected. Not to mention the workers who have no homes any more. So: no workers, no refineries, no ports, no container port, no barges on the Mississippi taking cargo up the river from the port, no Louisiana Interstate highways (as they have been washed away), no electricity to run the refineries, this leaves rail (maybe), and one still open road.

It all boils down to "demand destruction". Such a mellow sounding phrase isn't it? Oil is still priced at the margin. That means that it is really possible that there could suddenly be excess capacity world wide, for the simple reason that the USA has cut its demand by two million barrels a day. Or perhaps it would be more accurate to say the USA has the "will but not the way" to consume the resources. Ultimately this shall lead to a slowing down of growth in the USA, perhaps a decline, and a slow down and in Asia. Crude oil could experience a downward pressure in price.


"The result will be strong pressure on fuel and heating oil prices. It is very expensive to import refined oil products and liquid natural gas, it seems that may be the only way to make up for loss of supply domestically. The obvious effect will be to cause noticeable escalation in pump price. Ironically, oil prices may fall as a result of oversupply internationally due to reduced demand and reduced capability to ship imported oil into the US."

And the evidence:

"George - Hoping you're noticing how apparent dollar shorting is being used this morning to hold up the DOW. Somebody's noticed how to engineer stock trading software decisions in order to manipulate stock market prices. Lay USD index on DOW price. My opinion anyway. "


One more reason, as Sinclair notes that "it's all in the Dollar!"

The HoopleAnybody out there??#1354939/1/05; 08:36:25

OK, I'll be the first to notice gold and silver absolutely exploded (+$11 and +20 cents respectively) This almost feels un-rigged. No $6 collar, it blew by. Wow, could it be the prison bars just went down on the shorts? Is the cabal stretcher on stand-by? Maybe the rats are scrambling for cover. I hope so.
RimhHoople#1354949/1/05; 09:09:44

Yes we're here, but somewhat awe-struck by the move....

This ought to be messin' with their derivatives models. It almost smells like an ambush by some foreigners who are USD heavy trying to unload dead trees.

CaradocGold is up? (@Hoople)#1354959/1/05; 09:15:46

Good morning, Hoople! Since you happened to mention it, yes gold is up and the dollar is down. I'm picturing conversations around the planet...

"Hey, Hwang. With a third of their capability for receiving crude now out of commission, it won't matter how much those Americans are willing to pay for gasoline, they still won't have enough to be able to drive like they used too. I think we should unload some dollars."

"I say, Gerald. The looters in New Orleans are shooting at the rescue helicopters. P'raps we should unload some dollars."

"Allah Achbar! With gasoline at dollars per gallon, those infidels won't be able to grow vegetables in Southern California and ship them to New England. I think we should unload some dollars."

"Hans, they're moving refugees from one sporting stadium to another but if latecomers show up in their own automobiles they're being turned away and told that only refugees in official government busses will be admitted. Sounds like bureaucratic bumbling mixed with an overly authoritarian attitude. I think we should unload some dollars."


masTopaz, what's up?#1354969/1/05; 09:17:21

Hey, nice call my man....
Beat you would have never guessed it....
Got gold? And not shares?

The HoopleCaradoc, Rimh#1354979/1/05; 09:32:33

Correct, big dots might finally be getting connected. Bottom line the FRN printing press needs to be cranked into high gear when trillions are already sloshing around the planet. Fannie, GM getting clocked today. No houses or cars to finance, where's a poor dollar going to find a home now?
CaradocA request to our favorite wizard#1354989/1/05; 09:47:17

Gandalf: Just a thought, but at the last few interim highs you've quoted something busdriver Ralph Cramden used to say to his wife, Alice, about going to a nearby satellite. Every time you did so, gold turned the other direction within an hour or so. Could be your wizardly quotation attracts the attention of the dark forces and prompts them to marshall their troops. If they've come to rely on your signal, by simply refraining you'll leave their forces in disarray. Could be worth a try...



Gandalf the WhiteSir Caradoc's REQUEST ---#1354999/1/05; 10:07:59

My lips are sealed !
Sir Topaz is "THE MAN" !!!!
Check out the US$ chart NOW. (see LINK)

GoldiloxSilver and Gold#1355009/1/05; 10:46:42


The Optimist knows how to work this crowd, and he will rev them up with abundant praise for their magnificent performance in holding down the prices of silver and gold. Even the Fed will have to confess that they couldn't have performed this duty so flawlessly without the inspirational efforts contributed by the banks. At this point, I would offer to let the Fed take over, so they could deliver the bad news directly, but they would nervously push me back to the podium.

I would continue by assuring the bankers that all of us in this room are well aware of the intense economic risk the bankers have had to take on while supporting the Fed's continuing war against those strange people who like a little old silver and gold better than a lot of newly printed paper. There comes a time in every war, however, when the leaders must reconsider their strategies and tactics. Although the Fed, with the noble assistance of the bankers, succeeded admirably in pushing silver and gold out of the average American's viewpoint, a new enemy is increasingly difficult to keep docile. All those foreigners whose economies we support by purchasing a few gadgets from them now and then, and by giving them a few token jobs from our surplus of work in the manufacturing sector, are beginning to ask what they can do with the mountains of fiat dollars we pay them. Such ingratitude! You never hear the foreigners thanking us for our massive efforts to keep our printing presses running at full speed night and day just so we can give them huge stacks of brand new dollars. Instead of showing proper appreciation and respect for all the fiat paper we give to them, those foreigners are beginning to think about spending some of that paper. That would be OK if they only wanted to convert some of our fiat paper into some of our friend's paper, since our Fed and theirs have worked it out so that paper is paper regardless of what color ink is used to print it. The bad news that I am obligated to share with you is that foreigners are now considering spending paper to buy things that are real, including silver and gold.


Trading those "worthless" pieces pf colored paper for solid gold and silver looks pretty good right now.

GoldiloxConsumer Spending and "The Big Lie"#1355019/1/05; 10:57:54


So the government is touting that Consumer Spending is up like a house afire. But what about the money to pay for it? Where the hell is that figure? Strangely - at least with a bleary eyed quick read, I'll be darned if I could find it in the press release posted by Labor here. But we did find Table 1 on Page 6 of the release that said - if you run the numbers out - that Personal Income on a seasonally adjusted basis is up just an RCH more than one-tenth of one percent.

What does that mean in layman's terms? Millions of people are still living the Big Lie about productivity promoted by Soon-to-be-gone Greedspan and his cabal of banksters. While the Mogambo Guru mutters about finding bankers, rope, and light poles in the same breath, we think that's kind of extreme. What we can't do is argue the point about people sinking into the financial mud faster than Bourbon Street: Personal savings are negative:


The significance of George's Website title is rapidly becomeing clearer to many.

How long until the tragedy of refugees turns into a wider strain on other local economies? The Houston experiment is already seeing major strains in the schools and local employment scene. The "crack in the dike" analogy is not so amusing after witnessing the collapse of New Orleans' levies.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Since 1973. Proven Reliability, Longevity, Quality and Professionalism ---- Invest with Confidence!!#1355029/1/05; 11:01:49

The Invisible HandWhy no international relief effort#13550309/01/05; 11:15:18

With my advance apologies if this is considered to be black humour.
But why is that there is no international relief effort from Katrina like there was from the Asian tsunami?
Is that because, it has to paid in dollars? Why should it have to be paid in dollars? If the "relievers" send it from home, they pay in their home monkey currency.

GoldiloxInternational Relief Effort#13550409/01/05; 11:39:27

@ TIH,

Also not trying to belittle the grave situation, the "International relief effort" is Us!

Our citizen militias are so busy "guarding" the Iraqi outpost and 730 other foreign corporate bases, they are just too stretched to provide massive assistance needed at home. If civil unrest ensues from this tragedy, the "aid" will come in the form of martal law and FEMA "labor camps" for the displaced.

Watching the turmoil unfolding in Houston as they stretch their own limited resouces in assistance, added iquidity alone won't solve much in the short term. The real needs are housing and food in the short term and reconstruction and job stability in the long run. REAL THINGS, not more paper!

Moving an entire city population out of NO is in itself a Herculean task, but the cleanup and rebuilding is even more gargantuan. We may need CCC and WPA type efforts to accomplish the tasks ahead.

Some new thought will no doubt surface about the amount of steel, concrete, and other building materials flying overseas. Will there be real efforts to contain some of them here, or will the battle for resouces just continue to ramp up in a "goods flow where the profits are best" scenario? Using overseas profits to fund the US treasury just became a LOT more risky, as the question for Foreign capital will be "use the dollars to buy materials or further fund US borrowing?"

TS has hit the proverbial fan - BIG TIME.

otish mountainT.I.H. re foreign aid#13550509/01/05; 12:19:04

QUESTION: Have the foreign governments that you can tell us about come forward, possibly with condolences, possibly with offers of assistance in the hurricane aftermath?

MR. MCCORMACK: We have had a number of offers of government assistance to aid in the search as well as reconstruction efforts. These are general offers of assistance at this point. I don't have a complete list here, Barry, so I don't want to start naming off countries and leave somebody off because these offers of assistance are starting to come in. We appreciate each and every one of them, and we are going to work in the coming days and weeks with foreign governments to see how we can best channel these offers of assistance with relation to what the needs are that are out there.

TownCrierNew Orleans evacuation slows as shooting, chaos erupt#13550609/01/05; 12:26:53

NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) - Chaos and lawlessness hampered the evacuation of New Orleans on Thursday and a U.S. senator said thousands may have died in Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina devastated the U.S. Gulf Coast.

A National Guard official said as many as 60,000 people had gathered at the Superdome stadium for evacuation. But the evacuation was suspended when someone fired at a military helicopter sent to ferry out survivors.

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin ordered police to drop rescue operations to fight looting and other crime that gripped the city. A National Guard soldier was shot and wounded on Wednesday in the Superdome arena housing thousands of refugees in increasingly squalid conditions.

...Trash fires near the Superdome and other logistic problems were also delaying the evacuation.

Elsewhere in New Orleans, gunshots repeatedly rang out and fires flared as looters broke into stores, houses, hospitals and office buildings -- some in search of food, others looking for anything of value.

Similar scenes played out in Mississippi, where looters freely ransacked stores in Biloxi and Gulfport, both shattered by the storm...

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour told NBC's "Today" show that part of the looting problem has been an inability to get enforcement personnel into critical areas. "We will have several thousand National Guard by the weekend and will put a stop to it," he said.

...The president said on Wednesday it could take years to recover from the devastation and the New Orleans mayor estimated it would be three to four months before residents could return. A million people fled the New Orleans area before Katrina arrived.

^----(from url)----^

It should be an eye-opener for many around the country and the world who wonder at what seems to be America's apparent indifference or impotence to bring its vast wealth and power to bear in one way or another toward providing quick fixes in increasing the quality of life in many of the Third World areas on this planet. Here, we see one of one of our own great cities now reduced to Third-World status upon our very doorstep, and yet, even with a undeniable vested interest for our nation to do everything in its power to "fix" the situation, it is becoming evident that there are limits to what a government can do for a group of people. This is especially true when they are in an area that is outside or effectively severed from existance within the normal framework of infrastructure (roads and utilities) and rule of law which is that government's primary mandate and means of contribution to an individual's (and his society's) quality of life.

Given the realities of this governmental impotence when finding itself trying to operate outside of its normal domain of coordinating utility infrastructure and the structures providing for rule of law, the lesson first and foremost to individual citizens anywhere in the world is to gain this awareness and to strive for a reasonable posture of personal responsibility for one's own well-being -- a degree of self-reliance.

Thus, given that various government-provided infrastructures can indeed fall into disrepair (including the monetary infrastructure), it behooves a person to be able to provide for his well-being by simple relocation if necessary, and the New Orleans example makes it obvious that highly PORTABLE property can be extremely useful in preserving your wealth as you go from point A to point B. Things left behind (houses, furniture, businesses) can be be either destroyed by storms or looted. Gold, however, is highly portable (and immune to monetary degradation), and it should be very easy to gather up your coins prior to an evacution from any given type of "storm" so that you may take your wealth with you and have it for use as needed.

They have long known this lessen in less stable places of the world, and its wisdom is gaining ground here, too.


Liberty HeadFinancial Storm Warning#13550709/01/05; 13:52:24

Big Easy credit has lots of folks soaking up the sun while living below sea level, prayin' the gov't built levee doesn't break. Oh yeah! Don't it feel good?
When the inevitable storm hits, that Big Easy turns to the Big Soggy in a hurry.
Don't want to live like a refugee? Stay out of debt, own some gold and never trust the gov't.

Best Wishes

RimhNew moniker for AG#13550809/01/05; 13:56:17

Maybe we should be calling him "Big" Easy Al....
White HillsEnergy#13550909/01/05; 14:14:16

Just came back from a trip to Show Low, Arizona. On the way there we passed by a power station off Hwy 40 before Holbrook, Arizona. This is the one the enviromentalist want to shut down. The fuel it uses is coal that is mined in Arizona and pumped as a slurry via a pipe line from the mine to the plant. The miners are an Indian tribe, as are most of the plant workers. It would be a terrible hit for that remote part of Arizona. With recent happenings it would seem to be the dumbest thing you could possibly do. The inmates are running the asylum headed up of course by Robert Kennedy who stated that Katrina was caused by Global Warming and GB is the cause of that for his eviromental program. Egads, What stupidity! White Hills
Topazmas, Gandy ..."manhood"#13551009/01/05; 14:24:28

Naah! <blush> ...adolescent maybe.
IF we hear of Comex defaults on Aug deliveries in the coming days I'd be crowing about it though.
There IS still tomorrow ...we watch.

PoG needs to confirm here and blow through $450 on it's way to $500 real quick as our Trading Arena is (from Monday next) a PaperGame until Dec 1.

The long-term alt-PoG chart shows us 40* above, we'd want this "spread" to widen, not reduce ie: PoG and Buck have to rise in tandem ...and thats a big ask in "Paper mode".

Ag could drag Au up this month, lets see.

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1355119/1/05; 14:59:30">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Thursday Market Excerpts

September 1 (from Reuters) -- U.S. gold futures shot to their highest close since mid-August Thursday, nearing $450 an ounce and reversing the fund-led drop from early this week, as a weak dollar made the metal more attractive to investors.

COMEX December gold futures surged $8.40, or 1.9 percent, to end at $446.50 after dealing from $438.30 to $449.50.

Turnover was frenetic, with estimated volume reaching a huge 95,000 lots, compared with 62,148 lots on Wednesday.

"It's short covering and a little technical buying, as well as good overseas demand," said James Quinn, a commodities commentator at AG Edwards & Sons.

Abundant demand for cheaper gold absorbed much of the recent fund selling, and fresh speculative buying was complementing the physical interest seen out of India and Asian trading centers in the last two days.

The dollar fell for a second day as the Institute for Supply Management's index of national manufacturing activity fell to 53.6 in August from 56.6 in July.

A weak dollar boosts gold, which is mainly priced in dollars globally, as bullion gets cheaper for overseas buyers.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

CaradocNew Orleans = jet-fuel disruption #1355129/1/05; 15:56:56


Armbrust says the jet-fuel distribution system was pushed to its limits before Katrina. The storm knocked out refineries that produce 13% of the jet fuel consumed in the USA...

...the hurricane has knocked out several Mississippi and Alabama pumping stations along two of the USA's biggest and most critical fuel pipelines, running from the gulf region to New Jersey and Virginia.

End of snip

Odd emphasis here on a problem that's more solveable just by logistics than are the problems with gasoline or heating oil or a lot of other products that also start out as crude oil.


GoldiloxGlobal Warming mass confusion#1355139/1/05; 16:01:03

@ White Hills,

At last we agree! I was at Richard Hoagland's site this morning looking the empirical evidence of "global warming" occurring on ALL of the planets in the solar system at this time. Global warming itself may indeed be a reality, but our sun is very active lately, but it's a much bigger issue than these small minds propose.

As you know, I am not a big fan of oil and its various pollutants, but the notion that "greenhouse effected global warming" is fueling weather changes is highly suspect just from basic thermodynamics. I hesitate to use the word "climate", which arrogantly suggests our short data base of weather history can be assumed to be indicative of some static state.

There are much larger things going on that our attention is being diverted from - natural and geopolitical - whereever the line may be drawn between them. With the incredible amount of conjecture and outright disinformation efforts, there's plenty to wade through to get to the plausible!

One thing for sure - the pols (of every flavor) will rush to the affected populations to grab a photo op and chance to be called "savior", while those who offer quiet assistance are certainly the real "saints".

melda lauresubstance trumps credit#1355149/1/05; 17:53:02

Invisible hand.

It would be meaningless to have international aid if it were paid in dollars:


Amusing isn't it. A month's current account deficit would "pay" for the clean up. The immediate need is for real things, no? Fortunately the Red cross will take plastic. Did we all use REAL money a mess like this would cause a recession!

GoldiloxObsidian Butte EQ Swarm#1355159/1/05; 18:07:50


Renewed seismic activity in the Brawley Seismic Zone began late on 28 August 2005 but reached a sustained higher level of activity, announced by back-to-back M4.6 and M4.5 events at 3:47 and 3:50 p.m. (local time; PDT [GMT-8]) on 31 August 2005. As of now, seismic swarm activity continues at a slightly diminished level, yet activity can reasonably be expected to continue (see STEP map). The activity is reminiscent of similar swarms that occurred in the Brawley Seismic Zone throughout the 1970's and 1980's, during which time the zone was among the most active areas in all of California.


Certainly not the ampitude we've been witnessing in the Indian Ocean, but a swarm of new activity in a dormant volcanic region of SoCal. About 6 months ago, I noticed that average activity in CA rose from about 300 weekly events to 1000, culminated by the big week in June when we saw five EQs >5.0 along the western Pacific plate boundry. After that hectic week, the average went back to about 300, but current activity is back up to over 600/week.

I have no professional background, but the data illustrates a rise in activity, whatever that might or might not mean.

ArcticfoxDoesn't appear to be any copyright, so here goes..#1355169/1/05; 18:45:49

The Bell Tolls for the Dollar
Alf Field
September 2, 2005

The bell tolls for the US Dollar because it is doomed. Like the Dodo bird, the US Dollar will, within the foreseeable future, disappear into the history books in the chapter on "Extinct Species."

This will be an event of profound importance that will impact every being on the planet. It will impact all corporations and businesses around the world. It is not too far fetched to say that it will be the most important investment variable in the years ahead. It will transcend fundamental and technical analysis. Such analyses require a firm measuring device, but that measuring device will be destroyed.

It is vital for our mental, physical and financial health that we all understand what is happening and why. I am only the messenger, so please be kind to me. I just call the shots as I see them, so let me explain my reasons in more detail.

Let's start with the following recent posting from Richard Russell's Dow Theory Letters web site:

August 23, 2005 -- The American Institute for Economic Research out of Great Barrington, Mass. 01230, publishes an index for the dollar along with the dollar's purchasing power. Every time I look at this index it makes me angry. Why? Here's why. When I left the Army Air Force in 1945 the Institute's dollar index stood at 100. In other words, a dollar bought a dollar's worth of goods.

By 1960 the index was down to the point where the 1945 dollars that I'd been saving bought only 61.1 cents worth of goods. The erosion continued. By the time that Alan Greenspan took over the Fed in 1983, the index bought only 18.0 cents worth of goods. By 2003 the index bought only 9.9 cents worth of goods. I don't have the latest figure for 2005, but let me put it this way -- the dollar that the Army Air Force paid me in 1945 will now, here in 2005, buy me less than a dime's worth of goods.

So thanks, Federal Reserve. Thanks Alan. Since my youth when I was 22, I've seen the buying power of the dollar collapse over 90 percent. You see, the damn irony of the thing is that we hear our government talk about only 2 percent inflation today -- but they don't dare talk about what's happened to the dollar over five, ten, twenty, forty years. They don't dare even whisper it because it would sound God-awful. It would tell the American people that not only are they being taxed by their government, but they are being viciously taxed again by Fed-created inflation. - Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters.

Richard Russell is indignant about the destruction of the purchasing power of the US Dollar, but why is there not a general outcry against what is happening?

There appear to be two main reasons, these being:
1. The decline in purchasing power of the US$ has been fairly slow and people have been able to adjust to it;
2. There has been deliberate deception, distortion and dis-information of the items that would alert people to problems in this area.

The trend toward loss of purchasing power of the US Dollar over the past 30 odd years has been very gradual and people have adjusted to the annual changes. People seem to have the ability to absorb and adjust to small, gradual changes in their lives but react poorly to dramatic changes.

We all have the problem of earning our daily bread, of simply managing our day to day lives. Earning a dollar has been more important than worrying about the fact that the dollar was gradually losing purchasing power. We simply adjusted to it. Our salaries and wages were increased or we found ways of increasing our capital by taking advantage of the declining purchasing power of the currency.

There is an experiment that I cannot vouch for (I have never tried it) that involves dropping a frog into a pot of boiling water. The frog apparently will leap out of the boiling water. If the frog is dropped into a pot of cold water it will happily stay there while the water is heated very gradually until the frog is boiled to death. The frog simply adjusts to the gradual temperature change until it is comatose.

I have been able to conduct a different experiment which proves that we humans are no different. We react violently to dramatic change but we do have the ability to adjust to gradual change. I tried the following experiment on a German autobahn where there was no speed limit. I was driving at a safe speed of about 70 mph when I suddenly speeded up to 100mph. The reaction from my wife was instantaneous: "Slow down, you're going too fast!" I dropped the speed back to 70mph and after a while started to very gradually increase the speed until I was doing 110mph - this time without getting a reaction. My wife had adjusted to the gradual speed increases.

The items that are included under the "deliberate deception, distortion and dis-information" reason include the official price indices, the gold price and the exchange value of the dollar. These manipulations have all been dealt with extensively elsewhere and I don't propose to spend much time on this issue. The disinformation will continue for a while but once we enter the period of rapid change, the deception will be obvious to everyone.

So we have adjusted to the gradual loss of purchasing power of the US Dollar over the last 30 years, but why should it not take another 30 years to lose a further 90% of its current purchasing power? Why should things not continue as before?

The answer is that the problems that have been building up in the US economy over the past many decades have been brought to the point where they are approaching crisis level. The expectation is that the creation of new US dollars to meet these crises will accelerate very rapidly. We will have entered the period of rapid change, when the depreciation in the purchasing power of the US$ will become exponential, and the changes will be so rapid that people WILL react to this.

The problems facing the US economy all seem to start with the letter "D." They are:

DEFICITS (both Balance of Payments deficit and Federal Budget deficit), the DOLLAR itself,
DEVALUATIONS (competitive depreciation of foreign currencies to protect their export industries),
DEMOGRAPHICS (Baby Boomers reaching retirement age, under funding of pension funds, social security etc),
DERIVATIVES (possibly the largest problem with the biggest numbers,
DEFLATION (which will cause the budget deficit to mushroom) and
DWELLINGS (as in Real Estate boom).

These problems have been dealt with exhaustively elsewhere, so I will not comment further. Suffice to say that the financial stresses that they will give rise to will be "solved" by "throwing money at the problems" by resorting to the electronic money creation process. The size of these problems guarantees that the creation of new US$ will rapidly accelerate, causing the decline in purchasing power to become exponential.

It is not a question of IF the dollar is doomed but rather WHEN sufficient people understand what is happening and panic out of their US Dollars. In my opinion, this should be within 10 years and possibly within 5 years, maybe much sooner.

The following is from a recent article by Robert Kirby:

Murray Rothbard, the brilliant student of Mises, explained the genesis of the boom. "Why do booms, historically, continue for several years? The answer is that as the boom begins to peter out from an injection of credit expansion, the banks inject a further dose. In short, the only way to avert the onset of the depression is to continue inflating money and credit. For only continual doses of new money on the credit market will keep the boom going and the new stages profitable. Furthermore, only ever increasing doses can step up the boom, can lower interest rates further, and expand the production structure, for as the prices rise, more and more money will be needed to perform the same amount of work. Once the credit expansion stops, the market ratios are re-established, and the seemingly glorious new investments turn out to be malinvestments, built on a foundation of sand.

"It is clear that prolonging the boom by ever larger doses of credit expansion will have only one result: to make the inevitably ensuing depression longer and more gruelling."

Mises continues, "It is true, the banks (or the governments) are in a position to prolong the boom for some time by injecting progressively increasing quantities of bank notes and deposits into the market. But the artificially created prosperity cannot last forever. Sooner or later it must come to an end. There are only two alternatives: 1. The banks do not stop and go on expanding credit at a progressively accelerated pace. But the spell of inflation breaks once the public has the conviction that the banks and the authorities are resolved not to stop. If no limit of the inflation and, consequently, of the general rise of prices can be foreseen, a general flight into real values starts. Everybody becomes aware of the fact that to hold cash and deposit balances with the banks involves loss, and that he does better to buy and store goods. Everybody is anxious to get rid of money and to exchange it for some other commodities, no matter how much he must pay for them. Prices are running away, and the purchasing power of the monetary unit drops to zero. The national currency system cracks up. 2. As a rule, the banks do not let things go so far. They stop sooner by restricting credit. Then the day of reckoning dawns. The illusions disappear, people begin again to see reality as it is. The blunders committed in the boom become visible."

The fact is that IT IS TOO LATE FOR OPTION 2.

We have been told in no uncertain terms by Federal Reserve Governors that there will be no deflation. Whatever funds are needed to avoid deflation will be made available. The electronic printing press will be resorted to.

That simply means that the US Dollar is doomed to extinction.

The bell is tolling for the US Dollar but the bell is also tolling for us. We need to make some important investment decisions in the months and years ahead.

Gold is the only commodity that has always been produced for ACCUMULATION and not for CONSUMPTION. Silver used to be in the same category, but has recently become more of an industrial metal.

The reason that gold has been accumulated over the millennia is because IT RETAINS ITS PURCHASING POWER OVER TIME. It is a haven where wealth can be stored during times when existing Government money is being rapidly debased and losing its purchasing power - exactly the situation we are facing over the next few years.

Currently the price of gold is at bargain basement levels. Not only has the price been manipulated downwards, but investors have to re-learn the benefits of holding gold. This they will do rapidly as the events relating to the US Dollar become obvious to everyone. We need to acquire some additional gold holdings while the bargain prices remain. I suspect that, like all bargains, this situation will not last much longer.

1 September, 2005
Alf Field

Comments may be directed to the author at: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Disclosure and Disclaimer Statement: In the interest of full disclosure, the author advises that he is not a disinterested party in that he has personal investments gold and silver bullion, gold and silver mining shares as well as in base metal and energy companies. The author's objective in writing this article is to interest potential investors in this subject to the point where they are encouraged to conduct their own further diligent research. Neither the information nor the opinions expressed should be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any stock, currency or commodity. Investors are recommended to obtain the advice of a qualified investment advisor before entering into any transactions. The author has neither been paid nor received any other inducement to write this article.

GoldiloxIt Can't Happen Here - Dr. Ron Paul#1355179/1/05; 18:55:32


After all, proponents argue, the government is doing all this to catch the bad guys. If you don't have anything to hide, they ask, what are you so afraid of? The answer is that I'm afraid of losing the last vestiges of privacy that a free society should hold dear. I'm afraid of creating a society where the burden is on citizens to prove their innocence, rather than on government to prove wrongdoing. Most of all, I'm afraid of living in a society where a subservient populace surrenders its liberties to an all-powerful government.

It may be true that average Americans do not feel intimidated by the encroachment of the police state. Americans remain tolerant of what they see as mere nuisances because they have been deluded into believing total government supervision is necessary and helpful, and because they still enjoy a high level of material comfort. That tolerance may wane, however, as our standard of living falls due to spiraling debt, endless deficit spending at home and abroad, a declining fiat dollar, inflation, higher interest rates, and failing entitlement programs. At that point attitudes toward omnipotent government may change, but the trend toward authoritarianism will be difficult to reverse.

Those who believe a police state can't happen here are poor students of history. Every government, democratic or not, is capable of tyranny. We must understand this if we hope to remain a free people.


Nothing like the chaos of "natural disasters" to grease the wheels of authoritarian control! As Sinclair has said a number of times, a rapid rise in POG beyond $520/oz justs increases the target value of gold owners by the "Authoritarian Free Enterprise". Dollar devaluation is one thing, but dollar destruction means they will come looking for something to replace it in the "marketplace" - all for the "common good", of course.

GoldiloxDollar "index"#1355189/1/05; 19:00:02

@ ArcticFox,

"When I left the Army Air Force in 1945 the Institute's dollar index stood at 100. In other words, a dollar bought a dollar's worth of goods."

Seems to me that dollar's worth of goods in 1945 was substantially less than a dollar's worth of goods in 1912, pre-FED.

An index can be "initialized" at any point on the graph, but the bottom line is, gold standard or no, the banksters have been perpetrating their population rip-offs a lot longer than since 1945.

melda laureBad Weather or attack?#1355199/1/05; 19:04:58

Confusion, yes! If Katrina was an engineered event, then why would the oil markets require intervention? Why destroy the oil infrastructure, then suppress the oil market response? At this point I conclude: It is a natural event, hyperdimensional or not. Unless you belive they have called deep heaven down upon themselves; and not even Hoagland will dare to openly consider that!

There is too much noise amid our search for KEY facts.

JP Morgan cannot defeat peak oil. The taliban will not go to mars. The derivative players have taken to kiting swaps ("unmatched trades") Gold will win, shortly, or soon enough for TPTB know that they are but stewards.

Is that too vague?

FlaccusArticfox#1355209/1/05; 19:07:01

Never were truer words spoken:

"It is clear that prolonging the boom by ever larger doses of credit expansion will have only one result: to make the inevitably ensuing depression longer and more gruelling."

The expansion labelled in history as the Roman empire was followed by the depression labelled as the the Dark Ages. There have been similar episodes of shorter duration, but Rothbard's equation holds true in all cases. I would liken it to a natural law.

What is the real lesson of New Orleans?

It is that nature is a constant and that mankind, for a time, can forestall the balance or process, but it cannot attenuate or abrogate it. This is something those who concern themselves with market manipulation should internalize. They would sleep better at night.

melda laure(No Subject)#1355219/1/05; 19:07:03

FlaccusArticfox#1355229/1/05; 19:10:00

My apologies. The quote, it appears, should be attributed to von Mises. Both brilliant thinkers.
PRITCHO@Goldilox - - - Re Message 135491#1355239/1/05; 19:15:08

Goldilox (9/1/05; 03:53:35MT - msg#: 135491)
Crime Pays - Bill Murphy
I don't know why you drew attention to that rant by Murphy.You could go back to his website EVERY DAY for the past 5 yrs & read the same hysterical repeated message. Boring!

The same "Gold Warriors" don't seem to be interested in getting the message out to the wider community through PAID advertising.Why? Could it be self interest? Preaching to the choir seems to be the way they want to go and yet they will no doubt take credit when Gold finally takes off.

Ten BearsGoldilox #135501#1355249/1/05; 19:15:23

RCH..Now that is an entirely appropriate term of very fine measurement that I have not heard referenced in many decades. LOL
GoldendomeRally!#1355259/1/05; 19:43:09

One foot on Spot; one foot on Spike:
goldquestSpeaking of earthquakes#1355269/1/05; 19:44:02

A 5.0 just hit NE of Ensenada, MX.
Over 1020 earthquakes to date showing for U.S. lower 48, Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico.
Lots of activity the last several months in Utah.
Look for a biggie in that area soon!

CaradocKatrina's impact on shipping#1355279/1/05; 19:54:22

Port of South Louisiana is the largest volume shipping port in the United States and fifth largest in the world (2003 World Port Rankings). It extends 54 miles along the Mississippi River between New Orleans, Louisiana and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, centering approximately at LaPlace, Louisiana.

Port operations are currently shut down because of Hurricane Katrina. The condition of the port is not known. If the port is severely damaged, large disruptions in both imports and exports could result, including oil imports (the Port of South Louisiana is the main receiving terminal for supertankers from Saudi Arabia).
***end quote***

My hunch is that losing the world's fifth largest port for any length of time will show up in the Baltic Dry index as indicating not just a turndown in the US economy but the world's.

If you click on the link,there's lots of information at sublinks. For example, the four ports with more volume than South Louisana are Singapore, Rotterdam, Shanghai, and Hong Kong.

PRITCHOMad Cow - - Now this could Impact the $ & Gold! A Very Interesting Read#1355289/1/05; 20:05:30

Link is pdf file - -

So the US industry went one further than the UK and England. They just didn't suggest to people that you better not talk about BSE, they wanted to make it illegal to talk about BSE. They later tried to enforce this law by suing Oprah for $10 million.

1992 -- Dr. Friedlander (USDA Vet) was fired for looking for mad cow cases. I interviewed Dr. Friedlander. He was a former decorated USDA veterinarian and meat inspector. He was fired in 1992 for too aggressively looking into possible mad cow cases in the US. He worked at the largest packing plant of hamburgers in the U.S. I believe it was Taylor Packing in Pennsylvania. They also sold beef to the school lunch programs in 26 states. He was so well regarded that he eventually became the trainer for the USDA for the Northeast (from Maine to Virginia), training other vets. He received the Vet Trainer of the Year Award in 1987.

Back in 1986 he got hold of the U.K. video tape that showed the clinical symptoms of mad cows while the cows were still alive. He utilized the knowledge to help train other vets to identify possible cases of mad cows through the analysis of symptoms. While being a trainer, he still worked at the largest hamburger packing plant as an
inspector. He saw at least 20 to 25 downed cows a day. Downed cows can't walk. Trouble with walking is a sign of BSE. So some downed cows could be suffering from mad cow
disease. Since he had the largest number of downed cows at the largest US plant, he thought this was a great place for the USDA to test for the existence of Mad Cow.

Even though his was the largest hamburger packing plant and even though he had the most downed cows, Dr. Friedlander was never asked to send a downed cow's brain to the USDA for examination during his employment period. He believes if they were interested in finding mad cow, they would be doing more tests. (I read an article on retired USDA vet Michael Schwochert's experiences where he also believes that if the USDA were serious about setting up a thorough surveillance program for this disease, it would do a lot of things differently.)

In 1991, the Head Pathologist at the USDA, Dr. McCasky (spelling?) was brought to a special government inquiry into Mad Cow. They asked him if he thought mad cow would
come to the U.S. He said if it ever did, the first person to know about it would be Dr.Friedlander. Dr. McCasky told the panel about Dr. Friedlander's work. The next morning, Dr. McCasky called Dr. Friedlander about the panel discussion and his statements to them. He implied that the USDA and the government do not want to find Mad Cow. Soon after, Dr. Friedlander released the results of some of his tests and 12 appeared on the national news. He was fired as a whistle blower and I believe there is a case pending.

PRITCHORE Last Post - -Mad Cow #1355299/1/05; 20:15:27

That post was only a snip.Sorry I left that out.Also it is not exactly current being published nearly 2 years ago. It is however very relevent as it's findings have no doubt been swept under the carpet.

One of the more shocking revelations is that perhaps 13% of those seemingly afflicted with Alzheimer's are actually suffering from CJD!

A vegetarian lifestyle is starting to look like a must explore! - - -- eek!

The HooplePRITCHO, if I may,#1355309/1/05; 20:16:02

I consider Mr. Murphy and Mr. Powell with GATA to be truly decent human beings that alone stood against powerful banking manipulation of gold. They have the best gold analysts in the business that agree. If they do get credit for being the first to allege fraud they deserve it- THEY WERE FIRST. However GATA will forego credit, we just want the market to trade legally and unfettered. It is now becoming fashionable to mention price rigging and the funny goings on in the Comex. Some of that common information was disseminated (read: ripped off)from Bill Murphy's "rants". Advertising? Tell your gold mines to get off of their dead fat ----s and give GATA 1/10th the amount they contribute to the lame WGC. In the meantime one good full page ad in the NY Times would probably bust the GATA treasury.
GoldiloxMurphy's (lack of) Law#1355319/1/05; 20:35:43

@ Pritcho,

I share your disappointment with the media in general for ignoring the GATA message, but I don't think I agree with your solution. Paid advertising, is well, just that. Even in the land of "free press" there is a psychological distinction between press and paid-for press, although the real distinction has been heavily blurred by rich grants from the admin to bolster critical review of their pogroms, excuse me, PROGRAMS.

Paid advertising is very expensive and would probably garner GATA little more credibility than a kitchen aid infomercial.

John Q. Beerbelly will not "get it" even when thrown in his face (a la 9/11 or New Orleans). The majority prefer to tie one on and "go down with the ship".

Don't try to teach a pig to sing. It won't work, and seriously annoys the pig!

GoldiloxMad Cow suit#1355329/1/05; 20:45:59

@ Pritcho,

Why else would they sue Oprah other than to tie up the PR machine she can afford. One has to go to fairly obscure sites to see the long list of microbiologists who have met with early demise in the last few years.

As Sinclair reminds us in his rants, the US is VERY vulnerable to bio-tragedy, and losing microB pros at helatious rates is not gonna help us if and when there is a public health emergency.

Without pointing political fingers, weather disasters, the dollar going south, gas shortages, and increased "colony" violence increasing are not a recipe for "peace and tranquility".

PRITCHO@ The Hoople - -- You May :)#1355339/1/05; 20:48:13

----Spring to Murphy's defence. I did for years but I now consider that a mistake. "They" also use the ridiculous example -- "A full page ad would bust us".

ANY sensible business or individual has to cut their cloth to suite their budget.All I'm talking about is WELL placed PAID advertising that points to a Web Site.It need NOT be a prohibitive cost but it MUST be well planned.Such a campaign would get much more awareness than ALL the private rantings among the minute Gold community.IMHO

SundeckSouth Louisiana Port#1355349/1/05; 20:49:04

Good one Sir Caradoc...

That puts the present tragedy in Southern USA into better economic perspective...

In addition to coping with the massive and immediate humanitarian issues, there is the more far-reaching implications to the US economy caused by destruction/incapacitation of crucial infrastructure (port and surrounds). This will truly test the interconnectedness of the massive US system as attempts are made to divert shipments/distribution of oil and other goods through alternative channels.

Disruptions of this magnitude are likely to cause significant up-stream effects...we may see things like price of crude falling as price of gasoline in the US sky-rockets. Supply/delivery disruptions are also likely to send waves through the world financial system. The two-day fall in the USDX ranks with the largest over the last few years.

While spot POG rose dramatically today, the daily change settled back to only a bit over $6...this six-dollar "limit" is intriguing...


GoldiloxOil - gas price divirgence#1355359/1/05; 22:24:01

@ Sundeck, Caradoc,

It occured to me that a falling crude price coupled with panic driven gas prices offers the refiners a windfall to accumulate source product cheaply while they undergo restoration. Not entirely a "windfall" in the truest sense, but they'll probably fare better than the consumer!

Almost analogous to aquiring gold while the banks suppress the price.

(:^) Goldilox

GoldiloxOil and credit#1355369/1/05; 22:32:23


Record gasoline and heating oil futures and more than 80% of the people out there are charging their gas purchases. As if they are not leveraged enough. The Chicago Manufacturing Index is at 49.2 and now the Institute of Supply Management Index came in at 53.6 versus an expected 57.

We need gold more than ever for a Federal Reserve that finds itself trapped. Once the market realizes the fed is in a pickle, and can't ease their way out of the problem, the mark-up phase that you have been looking for is going to happen. Who knows, maybe it began today.


Another unexpected windfall from the gas crunch. more people are finding a fill-up costs more cash than they normally carry around in pocket. Thus the credit banks are seeing a rise in their 2-4% transaction fees, another "invisible' inflation cost.

CaradocSouth Louisana Port, etc, (@ Sundeck)#1355379/1/05; 23:33:30

I suspect you're right. However many supertankers were headed toward southern Louisana now represent a certain amount of oil that has to go elsewhere. As a minimum impact, those ships will be at least a few days late in getting back to their port of origin to be refilled. Result: some number of days of oil production that will have to be stored or not pumped in the first place. From the viewpoint of the producer, it will look like a lessening of demand. From the viewpoint of remaining refiners who will see the supertankers they were expecting plus some fraction of those that usually go to Louisana, it will look like an increase in supply. And since shipping capacity is inelastic (got to keep those ships moving!), the apparent increase in supply will not be just a one-time thing. Let's see: an apparent lessening of demand paired with an apparent increase in supply.... Could well be that we're in for a divergence between the price of crude and its distillates.

Katrina's impact on Louisana shipping is an easily understood example of what's in the process of happening. Another example is the double ribbon of concrete that used to run from sea to shining sea. Doesn't matter whether you're a Californian who thinks of "the 10" as part of your wretched commute or a Houstonian who thinks of "the Katy Freeway" as the road that heads west from the 610 loop, fact is that Interstate 10 no longer exists as a means of hauling stuff in between California and Florida. The millions of dollars per mile needed to rebuild the washed out sections are nothing compared to the economic consequences of truckers having to drive hundreds of extra miles to avoid the middle of the country while paying more for their fuel. Translation: more time and more money needed to get from point A to point B. And this isn't just California-grown veggies headed toward Florida and shrimp and oysters going in the oposite direction. True, veggies and seafood will be costing more, but there's also a lot of merchandise arriving in Long Beach that needs to get to the Walmarts of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Expect to pay more for the consumer items produced by slave labor in the factories owned by the Chinese military. Expect Walmart's sales to drop.

Overall, The US and the rest of the world have only begun to suspect Katrina's economic impact. Sadly, the economic impact is probably less important than what the storm's impact has revealed about American citizens and their government's ability to cope with emergencies...
* Citizens. Whether you look at the guests of the Ritz Carlton who are rationing themselves to half a glass of water and one cookie per day while fearing to go out into the street or whether you look at the street people who are starting to perceive their government as being guilty of a racially motivated conspiracy rather than routine incompetence, you don't see much to remind you of the people who tamed a continent.
* Government. Considering that as of the moment Katrina passed over Florida and entered the warm waters of the Gulf, there was 100% certainty that the storm would grow stronger from the warmth of those waters and would be hitting somewhere between Galveston and Mobile, probably pretty close to New Orleans. With days to prepare, it's pathetic that a government "for the people" failed to have Air Force loadmasters filling cargo aircraft with 463L pallets (188" square) stacked high with food, drinking water, and port-a-potties headed for some central location like Houston from which supplies could reach to whereever they would be needed.

The government's failure to do anything at all (with days to prepare for a known certainty) makes me wonder about the response to equal or greater emergencies that could come with much less warning.


GoldiloxSL Port, etc.#1355389/2/05; 00:34:57

@ Caradoc,

I don't think NOAA or anyone expected Katrina to grow from a Tropical Depression to a Force 5 in less than an hour, but whether one believes that to be a natural "anomaly" or completely stretching theoretical credibility, the points of your post are well taken.

We are ill prepared for any disasters, be they of human or natural conception. All the money drained from projects like New Orleans Port maintenance for "Homeland Security" has been essentially thrown down a rat hole. The borders leak like sieves, emergency planning and infrastructure is pitiful, and what we got for all that money is color-coded TV terror status, confiscation of nail clippers and cigarette lighters in the airports, and no-fly lists that include US Senators.

And to top it off, Easy Al will probably throw a parting gift of spec money at the COT so the talking heads can continue their "robust economy" drivel. John Q. Beerbelly might buy it a little while longer, but the creditors of the USA are starting to waffle.

PRITCHO@Goldilox - - - - Your Last Post - - -#1355399/2/05; 00:42:18

What have you been smoking? - -For DAYS they were talking about a Force 5 - -There was plenty of time to get things organised. Don't you remember that for days people were streaming out of N O.

Of course the poor whites & blacks were left to their own devices - -collateral damage I guess. Anyway the Govt of the USA shouldn't need any financial help --after all they have those things they call printing presses.

Caradoc@ Gandalf re: quoting Ralph Cramden#1355409/2/05; 01:28:04

With gold back over $440 tonight, it just could be that the Orc controllers have come to expect a Cramden quotation to warn them when to unleash their forces. What do you think about quoting Ralph somewhere in the low to middle teens? I'm thinking a little retracement to the high 480s would be a good thing. You know, more likely to lead to a series of progressively higher plateaus to 800 and beyond rather than triggering a hyperbola to some temporarily high number.

Your thoughts?


Caradocoops! @ Gandalf#1355419/2/05; 01:41:18

Instead of the noun I used, let's say I rewickered the whole sentence to use an adjective like parabolic or asymtotic to describe gold going irrationally exuberant upon reaching the high teens.

Or, just redefine "hyperbola" as a geometric shape so exaggerated that nobody would believe it.

Goodnight, noble wizard.


TopazCardoc#1355429/2/05; 02:37:09

Us Bugs, we sure speakadee uniquely.
Of coarse we all understood hyperbola as being a high degree of exhuberatedness.

TopazGold/Silver#1355439/2/05; 03:18:21

Someone PLEASE phone the neighbours and get them to move their Sign!!
PoG is getting a headache ...that cabal, they'll stoop to anything to keep Gold down.

Ag has to get going again here, we're losing traction and with 4500 done in the first 3 days, we might be running out of puff.
LR's might be a clue a little later.

Topazalt PoG#1355449/2/05; 04:19:49

Gold here is not getting it's fair share of this Dollar downdraft ...more's the pity and it's interesting to perhaps walk-a-mile in the shoes of a foreign CBer.

Knowing full well a softer Dollar is anathema to your local Currency AND a higher your C-PoG reflects badly in and of itself, you really MUST part with your Gold to try to (a) support the Buck and (b) support the System.

Much and all as it doesn't make sense to do so if the System is headed for the Trash Can anyway.

masTopaz, which neighbours#1355459/2/05; 04:24:39

It just poped up 3. Is this the ride through 450?
The knock on effect's of Katrina are just getting figured into the equation. Special meetings with the Fed and President to "access the financial situation"? Yeah right, best figured as how are we supposed to get this into control.

Sundeck"Can't-do Government "- Krugman at the NYT#1355469/2/05; 05:28:37

Sir Caradoc...pretty much along the lines of your #135537 from Krugman at the NYT...

I personally believe that the USA is still full of "can-do" people...but the present leadership leaves a bit to be desired...IMHO


Gold Standard@ Arctic Fox - Doesn't seem to be any copyright??? #135516#1355479/2/05; 05:34:32

Arctic Fox, you do not have to put a lower case "c" with a circle around it in order to claim copyright - copyright comes into being by publication of the original thoughts, and the copying of those thoughts in the absence of attribution and consent (which you did in fact attribute, but apparently without consent) is a breach of the author's intellectual property in the written material.

In most jurisdictions, IP law has a catch-all of "fair use" or "research" or "discussion" that allows one to use excerpts of published works with attribution, but without consent.

I would be inclined, if I were you, to contact Alf Field, and apologise for the wholus bolus copying of his work in this forum.

SundeckBig fun (not) on the Bayou#1355489/2/05; 05:40:07

Seems no-one is having "big fun" on the Bayou at present...

Is this the first of many to come?

Hedge funds seem to attract the very "best" of "creative accountants" who can put off judgement-day with post-dated accounting...Deferred Reality Investments Inc. Are Fannie and Freddie in the same situation?


KnallgoldWAG#1355499/2/05; 05:48:50

Now will they break the WAG2 limits,for emergency reasons?
mikalOil deliveries and flows begin to resume#1355509/2/05; 06:48:30{701A6919-8CCC-48FF-BF63-D262AFFA2CFF}&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

Katrina's economic impact spreads; Bush seeks funds - Rex Nutting - 9/2/05
KnallgoldMore moral rant#1355519/2/05; 07:07:19

They rather care about their Gold suppression than the citizens in NO.That puts Another nail in the great US of A as we knew it.

An answer to Belgian on a post the other day:the difference between Gold confiscation and its price fixing is: if its confiscated,its no more property of mine,definitively.Price fixing schemes on the other hand have a limited livespan :-)

What I wanted to say all these last posts (and others as well I guess):how much Gold has to be crucified further down the road?Its solely for the benefit of a few Wall Street crooks and its masters.

There is a life after the end of a $IMS,and one has to plan for this time,also here in Europe.It is a stupidity to sell that much for the benefit of only the crooks (representing the terminal ill).For some reason America hasn't sold an ounce (or so they say).I know that you think it does not matter how much Gold one has,it only its price matters.But the time (last decade) could have been used better and maybe lead to lesser catastrophic consequences.

GoldiloxKatrina Growth#1355529/2/05; 07:40:42

@ Pritcho,

When Katrina passed the FL Keys, it was still just on the cusp of whether it should be named. I didn't suggest that it only gained strength at the last minute, only that it happened very quickly.

No argument that they had more time to make evac calls than waiting until they did, but all through the FL canes last year, the evac calls were way late. No one in this FEMA wants to be accused of crying "wolf" with an Evac order.

I think, also, that the larger dike breaches caught a lot of folks off guard as they didn't progress to full flood stage until after the storm had passed and some cleanup had actually begun. This also might have played a role in the evac calls being late, as they seemed to be holding through the brunt of the storm.

GoldiloxInternational help#1355539/2/05; 08:16:31


while it was true many hours ago when we reported that no countries have offered it, that has now turned around, too. A good number have offered and the Bush administration has apparently turned down offers, if initial reports are correct. One Canadian reader writes in part: " The U.S. feds are flatly refusing any help. Canada has offered all kinds of assistance - doctors, hydro workers, and has been told to take a hike. Just last night a group from Vancouver - specialized urban search and rescue, invited by Louisiana officials, were refused entry into the U.S. by 'Homeland Security'. The Prime Minister was hoping to ask Bush why Canada is not allowed to help.
Nobody can force their assistance on America. Maybe your citizens are not being told what's happening - what a shocker."


We were surprised when some areas of Indonesia were squeamish about armed foreign troops offering assistance, now we hear that Canadian doctors and hydro workers were refused entry by HS. Well, maybe they are just too "proud" to accept help - sad, given GWB's announcement that aid flow has been "unacceptible".

GoldiloxAnother view of int'l help#1355549/2/05; 08:38:49


Canadian relief agencies have moved to help the U.S. states hit by Hurricane Katrina.

Winnipeg-based Mennonite Disaster Service said Wednesday it is gathering donations to help send hundreds of volunteers to rebuild homes.

Lois Nickel of the Mennonite group said volunteers from nearby states could be in Alabama by the weekend, helping to clear roads of fallen trees. She said a U.S. team is heading to Gulfport, Mississippi, where they hope to establish a base camp for volunteers next to the city's Mennonite church.

Nickel said a call for hundreds of Canadian volunteers may not happen for several weeks, depending on how long it takes to set up the church camp.

Canadian Red Cross volunteers with experience in large scale disasters were being contacted Wednesday and officials hoped a handful would be travelling to the southern U.S. by the weekend.

Suzanne Charest of the Red Cross said they'll likely send more than 100 volunteers in the coming weeks to help serve hot meals, assess the needs of displaced families and to train other volunteers.

In Edmonton, Canada's Public Security Minister said Canada will do whatever it can for the U.S.

Anne McLellan said that could involve a wide variety of things, including sending military engineers.

But McLellan said medical drugs may be among the first items Canada is called upon to ship south.

She said an American government agency asked Ottawa to do an inventory of medication that could help stop the spread of infection. McLellan said the inventory has been done and the U.S. government has been informed of Canada's ability to ship the drugs.

jenika@The Invisible Hand#1355559/2/05; 08:57:16

Regarding International Aid for New Orleans, I can only pass on to you that Australia has pledged $10m Australian dollars, you may want to call them monkey dollars - a term which I find offensive.
You can read about it at this link
I heard today there were capped oil wells in Australia that could only be uncapped by the US. Perhaps BB knows something about this?

Belgian@Knallgold#1355569/2/05; 09:05:35

The goldmetal out of the CB's reserves is NOT being crucified, Sir ! It certainly isn't.

Today, Trichet announced that he is monitoring (remains very vigilant) the Katrina's aftermath now that Bush called Greenspan.
Try to understand how and why, Euroland wants to stand as "neutral" as can possibly be. Neutral between the US-$ and the forming coalitions in the East. The ECB/BIS' gold-management is one element, out of many, to deliver on this neutrality. The policies wich affect the €-$ exchange rate and €-$-IRs are other elements.
Nobody, in the sinking $-IMS boat, wishes to make any move that would "rock" that boat.
Euroland states are offering (shipping) oil-destillates to the US. EU and US will restart negotiations about a common SPR.

Euroland's choice of remaining neutral doesn't mean that it is sacrificing (crucifying) its Gold reserves exclusively for the dollar or the new oil/gas-owners/consumers' coalitions. Maybe Euroland is imitating the legendary Swiss neutrality without sacrificing its own interests.

It is against this background that you should look at and understand the (joint) policies that result in the (unusual)financial/monetary events (facts) that we are observing.

It was immediately after Bush called on Greenspam (mon. expan.-IR inversion) that $-POG shot up $8. Trichet will remain cooperative when Katrina's effects will manifest themselves in the months to come.

Bear in mind for instance that PIMCO (world's N°1 bond fund) is under the wings of the German Allianz AG. A. Merkel in competition with Shroeder, immediately offered unconditional help to the US.

In the above context, I repeat that the euro's policy is to stand up as a neutral virging with a MTM gold dowry ! Watch Trichet's cautious attitude versus Asia in general and China in particular, when the matters of the floating yuan pop up ! Neutrality (biased though) dearest Knallgold.

Politics (policies) always evolve within a big picture. Those who wish to replace the $ in the IMS by another numeraire's concept, just have to make their choice and take (live up to) the consequence of the specific dowry.

Maybe hard to understand and far from one's bed...but imho a reality.

Buongiorno!thanks#1355579/2/05; 09:33:56

@ Black Blade and others, because of your good advice (store some goods, cash, and strength of spirit--and get some gold...)--I think we are better prepared than 99% of those in New Orleans, including those who evacuated. One fellow reported paying $1,000 for a taxi ride to Houston. At least he had the cash--perhaps a couple ounces of gold would have served as well.

All the talk we hear about this being the government's responsibility to "do something"--wish we could hear about 10% of the news media cover what we may learn from this and be more ready as individuals next time. But, that is ok--and the media does have it's point--and is unlikely to ever change.

So long as we have this fine forum, with the great minds posting here, we shall "be prepared", IMHO.

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TownCrierHEADLINE: Do you fancy a bet on inflation staying low for 50 years?#1355599/2/05; 12:20:58

(FT) September 2 2005 -- The terminology of the UK's government bond market – with its gilts, war loans and consols – carries with it the aura of a bygone age. But despite being able to trace its origins back to 1694, when the Bank of England was created to raise funds to fight the French, the gilt market has been sure-footed in responding to change.

Plans to allow a bank syndicate to sell the 50-year inflation-linked bond due later this month represent the latest break with tradition... The move to syndication will reduce the role of the domestic primary dealers that are authorised to bid at auction and open the issue up to a wider range of investors. This should lead to the government achieving a better price for its debt.

The first tranche of a conventional – non-inflation-linked 50-year bond – was issued in May followed by a second tranche in July. Neither issue attracted huge interest ... although the debt management office expressed satisfaction at having raised long-term funds so cheaply.

The government may be awarding itself brownie points but should the investor be impressed?

Most fund managers think bonds are expensive. "It is difficult to advise someone to buy gilts when yields are a 4.15-4.16 per cent..."

On longer dated bonds, there is even more reason for caution. Buying a non-index-linked issue maturing in 2055 involves a huge bet on the ability of governments to hold inflation in check. Performance over the past 50 years gives little cause for confidence.

...Until the liquidity sloshing round the international financial system finds a home – perhaps much of this money will continue to pour into equities – gilts and other international bonds look set to remain expensive...

^---(from url)---^

As said before, some of these long-end bonds seem to me little more than a parking place for entities more concerned at the present with nominal accounting issues than with additional concerns about any REAL effects in value (purchasing power) to be garnered over the life of the bond.

For the long term, choose hard assts. And among them, to maintain liquidity, choose gold.

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Friday Market Excerpts

September 2 (from Reuters) -- Gold futures in New York edged off from a two-week peak atop $450 an ounce but still finished higher on Friday, as dollar weakness made precious metals more alluring to investors, traders and analysts said.

Commodities rallied across the board in recent days as a falling dollar and the impact of Hurricane Katrina on markets like coffee and base metals, as well as a surge in energy prices, spurred heavy fund buying in the sector.

COMEX December gold futures rose $2 to $448.50 after trading from $445.80 to $451.40.

December gold was $15 above its Tuesday low at $433.50 and stood not far from the 2005 high set in early August at $455.30.

The dollar fell broadly Friday as feeble U.S. economic data this week and the impact of Katrina fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve could apply the brakes on its monetary tightening drive.

The euro hit a three-month high against the dollar earlier and last was at $1.2541 after gold closed.

A weak dollar boosts gold, which largely is priced in dollars worldwide, as it gets cheaper for overseas buyers.

GFMS analyst Paul Walker told Reuters Friday that strong physical demand, particularly from Asian markets, will keep upward pressure on the spot gold price and may lift bullion to $500 an ounce.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---

GoldiloxAlan Greenspan: The one-eyed King#1355619/2/05; 16:28:17


What He Leaves Behind

Which brings us to current circumstances. The Greenspan era, unfortunately, will not end when he departs. The instabilities and ruptures he sowed will still be with us, and he would be wise to get out of town before people recognize the full depth of his destructive legacy. The US economy is not strong and self-confident or even especially efficient. It is stumbling along under subnormal conditions, losing ground and taking on enormous debt from abroad. Nor is the United States free of the follies and risks generated during Greenspan's reign, including financial delusions and the threat of deflation. His successor will presumably be a right-winger too, but one hopes for a more supple, flexible intellect.

The weak-willed economy is an apt illustration of where Greenspan's lopsided policies have led. Four years after the 2001 recession ended, the economy is still struggling to overcome its "jobless" recovery (or "job-loss" recovery, as manufacturing unions call it). Corporate profits have rebounded to extraordinary levels, but companies are reluctant to invest the capital. Wages, meanwhile, remain flat or falling, especially for working-class occupations. Forty-six months into this expansion cycle, the total hours worked in nonsupervisory jobs have risen only 2 percent since the recession ended--compared with rebounds of 9-16 percent after the four previous recessions. Manufacturing, once the vital core of US prosperity, is still losing jobs every month. Its total working hours are down 9 percent since 2001.

This is the most sluggish recovery on record, which seems to puzzle the Fed chairman. But it reflects the Greenspan style of running things; he presided over a similarly tepid recovery in the early 1990s. Tom Schlesinger, director of the Financial Markets Center, a monetary-policy watchdog, thinks the lopsided economy is the most disturbing hallmark of Greenspan's governance. "The Fed has said almost nothing about this, except [vice chairman] Roger Ferguson says there's nothing the Fed can do particularly," Schlesinger complains. "The jobless recovery appears to be a new feature of the US business cycle. Yet the principal agent of economic management says nothing."

White HillsInternational help#1355629/2/05; 17:24:20

Sir Goldilox, According to Condi Rice the United States has not turned down any country that has offered to help. Either she is lying or your info is not correct or maybe just spun a little. She did say that all assistance was being considered according to what kind of assistance and where it can best be utilized. White Hills
GoldiloxInt'l help#1355639/2/05; 18:10:14

White Hills,

The article was duly noted as "hearsay", so the issue certainly requires clarification before anyone accepts it as fact. Did you miss that detail?

I'm sure this will not be the first confused issue we will see, which is why I also posted the second source from CBC - the one you ignored in your haste to chastise.

Int'l help can be defined as money or real labor. It's quite possible, although I have not seen corroboration, that border patrol turned down doctors and relief workers awaiting decisions from higher ups, who are usually trying to gather money, not people.

Anyway, I forwarded the article to NBC, CBC, and CNN, so we'll see if anyone responds.

By the way, when did Condi Rice get to be the head of the Border Patrol? Isn't that Michael Chertoff's job?

NedWhatever Condi Rice has said is baloney.#1355649/2/05; 18:26:21

Condi Rice, QUEEN of filibustering, has not "turned down any country's assistance" but neither has she accepted any help either.

I read in Canada's "Globe and Mail" 2 days ago that Canada has offered a modest supply of equipment and foodstuffs along with their 'DART' team which was also deployed for the Asian disaster. There is no mention or was no mention of US acceptance.

It is clear that the likes of Condi Rice would be very selective as to whom the US will accept assistance from. It is also clear that human beings in need in New Orleans would not care that humans providing the help come from a foreign country such as Canada, for example. Humans with SEVERE political agenda such as Ms. Rice unfortunately have installed virtual mountains the size of Everest between the helpers and the needy.

I use the example of Canada only because of proximity to the US. Because of very slighted views about the Iraq war, the softwood lumbar trade dispute, the 'mad cow' issue etc., etc., politics will cause the loss of life and that is something that all politicians, both American and Canadian and especially Condi Rice should be ashamed of.

Sorry to be OT, I was following this thread with great interest. I hope it is close enough to 'open forum' time for this post to survive.

SmeagolA thing that makes us go "hmmm"...#1355659/2/05; 19:45:08

We, ioho, thinks the New Orleans ssituation weighty enough for early posts to survive...

Gold lease rates are plummeting... ?? We thought that higher lease rates eventually meant a higher Gold-price... does the inverse hold true? Is the bottom about to fall out of the Gold-market in the face of a gap in WAII gold-sales? Or does the threat of higher price mean rates have to be lowered to get borrowers? Is someone getting a really good deal? (scratching head) A conundrum, indeed, precious... or jusst our ignorance! Thoughtses?


compwiz4uGold Lease Rates#1355669/2/05; 22:18:53

My take on the dramatic collapse of the gold lease rates is that a significant up move in gold is starting and bullion banks do not want to borrow it because the risk of having to buy it back at higher prices is now substantial. Ergo the rates are lowered to try to attract borrowers.
GoldiloxFirst hand report from Tim Wood (; 22:44:55

Following is a note to Jim Puplava from Tim Wood -

Dear Jim and Mary,

Thanks and we made it fine. I am 7 miles north of the Gulf Shore public beach. New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf coast obviously took the brunt of this one. Alabama was spared the worst, but we still had extensive damage. The reports that I've seen on the local stations show that Dauphin Island, AL was virtually annihilated. This is a barrier island on the west side of the mouth of Mobile Bay. Sitting just to the east about 23 miles is Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, AL. It was not the wind that did the damage this time. Reports for my immediate area showed wind gusts up to 109 MPH with sustained winds in excess of 70 MPH. Yes, this is enough wind to cause damage, but the problem in Alabama and these barrier islands was the tidal surge. In Gulf Shores for example the tidal surge was basically the same as was seen with Ivan last year.

All of the reconstruction that has taken place along the beach since Ivan, has been destroyed. As an example, there was nice hotel that sat on the beach in Gulf Shores that we used to stay in when we would come down. This hotel just reopened 2 weeks ago after being repaired from Ivan. In the lower floor there was a restaurant that opened 1 week ago.

The Weather Channel was broadcasting from this hotel on Saturday and Sunday. I went to this restaurant Sunday morning to have breakfast and to see just how bad the surf was getting. In short, the surf was already an impressive site at that time. Late Sunday they evacuated everyone from the Gulf Shores barrier island.

Tuesday, I was told by a policeman that this restaurant had approximately 10 feet of water in it. On top of that, there is no telling how big the waves were that hit the coast. 70 miles south of Dauphin Island, NOAA weather radio reported the sea buoy having recorded 30 foot waves on Sunday night before landfall. My neighbor said he later heard that 55 foot waves were recorded by this buoy. I'm not suggesting that waves of this magnitude hit our coast because I don't think they did. But, with waves like that off shore you know what hit the shore was not good. In the grand scheme of things coastal Alabama was spared the brunt of the wind this time, but the tidal surge was estimated to have been very close to that seen with Ivan.

We boarded up the house and watched the storms track closely. Being a few miles inland, the tidal surge is not a factor here. I have also learned that the tidal surge is the worst problem. With the eye of the storm moving some 100 miles to our west, we stayed home. But, with 70 to 109 MPH winds, we did have roof damage. It blew the ridge caps off of the south side of my roof and the ridge vents at the apex of the roof. I spent yesterday and today fixing my roof.

We had to board up for Dennis and we left for it. We had no damage then at all. This time we monitored the situation closely and stayed because of where it went. This was indeed an interesting experience and I don't want to be any closer to a storm like that than we were. We are still having power surges and gasoline is in real short supply, but at least we did not take a direct hit and we are far better off that the folks in Mississippi and Southeast Louisiana.

GoldiloxFriday Warket Wrap - Tim Wood#1355689/2/05; 22:48:12


Yes, during that 29 month topping process people also said that the Dow theory was no longer applicable. I was told that the cycles no longer mattered. We were in a new era and the stock market was "going to 36,000." Well, the Dow theory told me that the market was sick and that 36,000 was a pipe dream. My cycles work, as documented in a 2001 article in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine told me that the Industrials were going to 7,400 and that this would happen in the fall of 2002. Guess what? The Dow theory was correct and so were my cyclical projections.

Nothing has changed since 2002 to suddenly invalidate the Dow theory or cycles analysis. It is simply a necessary part of the "cycle" so-to-speak, that the masses think this way. William Peter Hamilton described Dow's theory as "The Stock Market Barometer" because it looks forward at what is to come rather than back at what has already happened. The problem with the masses is that all they can see is what has already happened. Furthermore, the masses never have and never will truly understand the Dow theory, because that takes time and energy to learn. No, human nature is such that the masses always want to think that "this time is different" and that as a result the tried and true methods are no longer applicable because once again all they can see is what has happened and not what the "Barometer" is telling them.


It sure is good to see Tim and his family are OK and back to work!

CamelHalt in interest -rate increase#1355699/3/05; 01:35:28

Probably good for gold as it will decrease the strength of the dollar


The US President, George Bush, and Federal Reserve chairman Dr Alan Greenspan met on Thursday to discuss Katrina's economic effect as the central bank chief came under increasing pressure to scrap or delay further Federal Reserve interest-rate increases.

PRITCHOWill You Survive The Coming Financial Crash?#1355709/3/05; 02:00:22

click here

Came across this article (35p pdf file) today. Well worth the read with some good historical facts & links - -
A Must Read:

The experts all agree --- the Federal Reserve currency of the United States is nearing collapse --- but when this will actually occur is anyone's guess. However, there are many factors, which will be discussed throughout this white paper, which are contributing to the collapse. It appears we are in the early stages of a series of events that will culminate in the outright destruction of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. What this
means in simple terms is the world's economic system is traded in U.S. dollars. It also appears that the reason for the current runaway deficit spending and the printing of greater amounts of Federal Reserve Notes is this destruction is being done on purpose,with those truly in the know taking their gains prior to its’ inevitable collapse.

Why I have written this white paper is because I do not wish to see people being blindsided by this future event. The reader can take my words as a caution, and make the
necessary steps to protect their assets and savings, or the reader can ignore my words and later suffer the consequences of the actions of people whom they do not know. I assure you that every single fact discussed in this white paper can be easily verified by searching for the information to confirm that indeed everything I am saying is true. Having the ability to see the bigger picture, it is my duty as a Constitutional Protectionist
to warn people of the impending financial doom. It is no longer a matter of if this will happen, but when . . .

PRITCHOCorrect Link For Previous Post - - - -#1355719/3/05; 02:05:05

Sorry about that - -Try this

From the previous site is this rather amazing Video clip about the Bush family.It's not flattering but is factual & should be known by all - even the septic sceptics :)

Go to the link above --then click on the 2nd link called -

It loads very quickly --and is very clear & well done.

GoldiloxMysteries of the Mind#1355739/3/05; 10:18:10

@ Pritcho,

Alex is definitely "good people". I don't catch all of his interviews, as some get too esoteric for my interests. However, on August 18th, he spent a couple hours with "Cliff" of Web Bot fame (, and Cliff explained the inner workings of the Web Bot algorithms. It was very interesting to hear how he collects and analyzes his mountain of data, and can be linked in Alex's August '05 archives.

Cliff's thesis, of course, is that humans, like animals who seem to "sense" events ahead of time, also have the ability to "intuit" big changes. With few exceptions, we are "numbed" to that insight by the noise level of our "brain traffic". So, using some pretty sophisicated Prolog algorithms, he gathers data from hundreds of thousands of web sites to look for "trends" of feelings and awareneses to build an "average" from the collective data. His results are proprietary, but often summerized on It's still an "inexact" science, but has yielded some quite surprising glimpses into the near "future".

Just as an aside, when Jim McCanney missed a weekly broadcast last year, I sent Alex an email inquiring about him. He took the time to reply and explain that Jim was out of town gathering experimental data and didn't care to publicise it before the fact. That struck me as a very personable reaction.

Max RabbitzBush Video Reponse and FREE GOLD!#1355749/3/05; 10:22:06

So according to this video George W. is a Nazi because his grandfather was involved with financial interests that supported Nazi interests (rather old news to many). Not mentioned in the video is that Bush benefactor and cohort Averell Harriman was also involved with supporting Stalin and Communist interests long after the Nazi's came to grief. So is George W. also a Commie? I think the answers lie more with a Federal Reserve and financial system that is incompatible with a free market and a Republic.

I hope Judge Souter's home soon becomes a museum to the abuses of power. Don't forget that the 5 supreme court judges who voted for this act of serfdom were all on the "Progressive" side of the court.

P.S. Has anyone noticed the coninuing drop in Gold lease rates, dramatic the last couple days. Looks like free gold! As Fed rates have climbed gold rates have dropped. It must be getting harder to get people to lease gold. Rather risky I would think.

GoldiloxLinks between abusive Powers#1355759/3/05; 10:41:46

@ Max,

Your response, although somewhat "tongue in cheek" is a testament to the idea that "Power corrupts, and absolute Power corrupts absolutely".

I think a lot of folks are waking up to the idea that neither the extreme left nor the extreme right Power structures care doodly squat about anything above and beyond expanding their own power base. The left/right squabbles tend to be "signal noise" in the bigger picture power grabs that are nurturing major disfunction in society as a whole. Right or left, examination of their money trails leads to the same arms/drugs sales, covert civil wars, gold swaps/CB loans, etc., irrespective of public "political" affiliation.

To me, the left/right question appears to be a "divide and conquer" tactic by those with humungous resources against the major populations.

The "political union" of Bush I and Clinton to raise money and "heal the wounds" strikes me as evidence that the real battle is the "haves vs. the have nots". These big shots will join forces long before either would lower himself to side with the working minions.

GoldiloxWhat Katrina Cost#1355769/3/05; 11:07:49


We have to ask some serious questions in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina this week - and we expect there will be plenty of blame for what went wrong to go around for all those willing to stand up and be accountable for their actions. I say this because it seems a bit odd to me that we live in a country which has poured untold billions into planning for a terrorist "event" and yet with a story like Katrina breaks with 3-4 days notice, the emergency response is embarrassing and pathetic.


This one hits home with me, as I spent the last years of my career teaching principles of "disaster planning and recovery" - perhaps just in time, as the WTC data managers used our principles to save every byte of data after 9/11.

Planning for human safety and recovery is quite different than in the virtual world of data, given much larger systems with many more variables. But the most glaring difference is in which resources are most important to protect. Planning redundancies of data storage is quite different from planning human safety, as data and processing systems can be completely destroyed, so long as it's recoverable from a back-up source. Humans don't fare as well under those premises.

Obviously, human safety and security suffer also from a lack of defined priorities, as we spend millions confiscating nail clippers and cigarette lighters from air passengers, only to take the money to pay for it from the Corp of Engineers levee budget. That's a simplification as well, but not too far from the final result.

As FEMA grows into a huge bureaucratic organization, I think the public can legitimately ask just where the lines are drawn in protecting the infrastructure vs. protecting people! TPTB so often parrot the lines that "people are our most important resource", but the protection infrastructure priorities do not always mirror that.

This leads us back to the axiom so often touted here that one's best personal protection comes from one's own actions - for both financial and human survival. Don't expect bureacracies to place individual survival at the top of their priority list.

GoldiloxMore to Come . . . ?#1355779/3/05; 11:49:14

For those who are readjusting their thinking to the idea that major storms require activation energy from the ionosphere to fuel their growth, Jim McCanney has announced that three new solar flares emerged from the Sun in the last 24 hrs. A close watch on the Mid-Atlantic hurricane "breeding grounds" may be in order, as another Katrina event in the US Southeast would truly be devastating.

FYI only - I'm not trying to inspire a "right or wrong" discourse on this forum, as the physics involved is too far off topic.

He asks that no one quote his site, but the info can found at the link. Be forewarned that his site is pretty disorganized, so it requires some patience to navigate.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.FREE Gold Information Packet...#1355789/3/05; 12:04:54

Buongiorno!solar flares#1355799/3/05; 12:57:07

@ Goldilox and solar flares--it would be interesting to see if some plotting of flares and major storms is being done. Seems as it would be logical to do that. Then, if a relationship were indicated, we could debate whether it is causal in nature, or merely coincidental. Should work as well for winter storms, no? Interesting. How about an overlay showing gold price fluxuations? Always wondered about that, too. Cheers!

GoldiloxSolar Flare plots#1355809/3/05; 14:31:07

@ Buongiorno,

The simple correlation would seem easy, but weather modeling contains so many factors that it is a Herculean super-computer task, and still far from accurate. (forest and trees?)

The only data correlation I have seen is in McCanney's recent book "Principia Meteorologica" and historical references on his site. Although it seems to be good data, I have NOT yet seen any independent verification. He first published the basis for this theory in 1970s and 1980s at Cornell.

Also, his P-inC views also do not help garner mainstream support, as his demise at Cornell came from public disagreement with the great astro-god Carl Sagan, who, Hoagland remarks, blew every one of his anti-McCanney Venus arguments based on later probe data.

However, the recent Geophysical Union meeting (in New Orleans, ironically) included a large focus on electrical and solar confluences in weather patterns, so there is gathering, if not yet mainstream, support for the idea that extra-terrestrial electrical energies are more involved in weather patterns than previously believed (ET does not always mean ALIENS or UFOs).

It boils down to the argument about the Earth as a"closed system" or an active part of a larger Solar energy system. Although not completely definitive, the coincident "global warming" occuring on the other planets suggests we are not uniquely causing our own "global warming", and could relegate the "greenhouse effect" to the same bone pile it has found in Venusian theory (See Hoagland's site for planetary data).

Well I did it - I fell into my own trap of getting too involved in the politics of research physics for this site, so enuff's enough! Check their sites if you care to further explore these weather and planetary theories.

ArcticfoxEmbry discusses the "PPT"#1355819/3/05; 14:54:25

Seems to be a convincing argument pertaining to Uncle Sams invisible hand..
CoBra(too)The Aftermath of Katrina ...#1355829/3/05; 17:02:48

will hopefully send the NEO-CON idiocy to a similar devastation.

I'm in shock about the incopetence of the admin and even more about the blatant brutality of people like Dennis Hastert; The guy has the gall to say it's not worth to save nor rebuild NO, while thousands of people are stranded and and dying in toxic floods.

Meanwhile, the infrastructure of energy has opened the eyes of the last disbeliever ... The Gulf has supplied 20% of the US demand. Well, it's not there now and wont be for a long time - if ever!

1.7 mbbls are not going to be replenished from any other source - tomorrow or ever - it's a plain fact - it's not available.

Short term exotic help from around the world in form of product will only enhance the fact that a big tract of US refineries are obsolete and in oblivion.

Guess - Katrina may well be seen as the perfect storm - changing all the premises and finally bringing the real and bankrupt super-felon to the fore ... and it may not be the looters in NO, nor the Katrina victims - it just may mercifully hit the neo-con(spirators) of a NWO -

... I'd rather take their cheap gold, as long as they give away some reality, outside of paper!

... and as the nightmare goes on - unsurpassed even in banana republics - the imperialistic and last superpower has lost all credibility - including its reserve currency hegemony ... good night America!

An ex-friend - cb2

Buongiorno!Goldilox--solar flares#1355839/3/05; 17:43:29

Nicely done. Not to know is ok--not to know and to think we do--not so good. I always doubted the global warming theory, not that I know--just never could get any of that crowd to come help shovel some of the global-warming off my driveway in the winter. Perhaps it is a mixture of both--eh?

Say, didja see the venom in that last CB2 post? Wow! Gotta love someone who can hate like that! (they need it)

Onward in our search for answers!

CoBra(too)@ Boungiorno -#1355849/3/05; 17:51:17

No venom - just being utterly sad - and maybe mad!

Whatever you think - Buona Notte - cb2

TopazCoT Trending.#1355859/3/05; 18:13:52

This recent uptick looks to have caught the Commercials with their shorts down a tad as percieved OI since Tuesday last has had to run contrary to the Spot price.
Poor Buggers!

The Spot-v-Futures arm wrestle looks set to continue as Physical off-take outweighs Paper trading in the run-up to Christmas.
A perfect shorting environment with exponentially increasing Physical demand! ...bring it on!

The Invisible HandThe euro is ready for CoBra(too)'s perfect storm #1355869/3/05; 18:15:04

But Germany is changing. This month it has an election and the free market, low taxation CDU leader, Andrea Merkel, is likely to replace Gerhard Schröder. She could be taking over just as the German economy is showing signs of recovery. A strong Germany is good for the whole eurozone. People will start to feel better. Maybe even the Italians will stop moaning about having gone into the euro at the wrong price.
For those implacably mistrustful of the European project, the euro will remain an anathema. But for those with a more open mind, a healthy eurozone might make the single currency appear more tempting.

TopazStormy Weather?#1355879/3/05; 18:59:44

Sitting here on a wet, chilly Sunday morning listening to Billie Holidays "Stormy Weather" through my NEW, u-beaut Computer Speakers I got for Fathers Day, my thoughts and Prayers go to those not so fortunate, wherever they may be.

This Gold market is a curiosity eh?
My best analogy is a cross between Mecano Set and Cargo Cult.
Mecano Set, because it "resembles" a Market but is simply a CON-struction ...and Cargo Cult, as those who live and breathe the "Market" actually give it credibility.

We will need to see a continuance of this divergence here and I suspect we will it all comes down to Liquidity in the Physical. If this dries up the Paper price imo could plummet.

FlaccusIH#1355889/3/05; 19:20:47

"Germany is changing."

You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all the people all the time.

Given the opportunity (or the abscence of external discipline), Germany would succumb to 1923 all over again in a heartbeat.

Know your country.

Goldiloxgold battle#1355899/3/05; 19:23:01

@ Topaz,

I like your "perfect storm" analogy of a shorting opportunity in a rising price environment.

It will be interesting to see if they are up for a fight this week or back into a corner buying to cover!

Max RabbitzThe German Election: Will it make a Difference?#1355909/3/05; 20:15:22

by Marshall Auerback

"Even if either candidate were genuinely interested in performing radical surgery on Germany's now moribund economy, the dirty little secret of continental Europe politics today is that no member state belonging to the single currency union can fully shape its own destiny any longer. The institutional constraints built into the treaty on fiscal policy and the creation of a supranational central bank have invariably created a significant loss of national sovereignty, whatever the politicians might say to the contrary. If the euro had lived up to its promise of enhancing productivity, efficiency and living standards in member states, perhaps this trade-off might have proved acceptable, but even strong euro-enthusiasts such as perennial British Tory leadership aspirant (and former Chancellor of the Exchequer), Kenneth Clarke, have conceded that the hopes bound up with the single currency project have come nowhere close to being fulfilled."

Max.....Interesting article. He concludes that either there must be political integration or the Euro dies.

contrarianWhat's coming#1355919/3/05; 20:49:51

Pritcho--thanks for excellent link. I also suggest as required reading this other link, which is an excellent adjunct, which was mentioned on this site a few days ago.

I was speaking today to my neighbor who is a world-wise person, although not formally educated. She's in her 60s and told me she feels there's something strange in the air, to paraphrase her. She couldn't quite put her finger on it, but she senses drastic things coming round the corner.

I think the New Orleans thing is just the start of it all, the catalyst. You can't tell me that gas prices, which have shot up, are going to come down again to previous levels! Just watch them stay up there! I guarantee it! And watch the smoke and mirrors BS economy of no jobs, fabricated statistics, greedy and vandal CEOs, overpriced stocks, overpriced housing, meltdown derivatives, The Creature from Jekyll Island, and clueless economists bit the dust, along with the dollar. Terrorism is just a small story, a red herring, to distract from the real deal.

I talked this way for three years now, and everybody thought I was nuts, but we shall see. The shock will be enormous, to the collective a·nesthe·ti·zation, distracted my the cult of "celebrities", "reality" tv, movie stars, entertainment, sports, etc.

mikal@Goldilox#1355929/3/05; 20:55:21

Weather Modification Research and Technology Transfer Authorization Act of 2005
109th Congress 1st Session - S.517
"This Act Shall Take Effect on October 1, 2005"

mikalSaudi currency divorce from $ likely#1355939/3/05; 21:34:08 Saudi Arabia's Riyal to follow China's Yuan Dollar Example? - MiddleEastForex - September 3, 2005
Belgian@ Max#1355949/4/05; 00:14:08

Total assets of all Belgian families = 747 Billion €
Total outstanding debts with the banks = 128 Billion €
Assets to debts = 5,8

What exactly is M.Auerback talking about ?

GoldiloxWeather Mod Bill#1355959/4/05; 01:12:52

@ mikal,

Thanks for the link. I wonder if they will transfer HAARP and such from Black Ops to mainstream?

KnallgoldBelgian#1355969/4/05; 05:22:47

"Nobody, in the sinking $-IMS boat, wishes to make any move that would "rock" that boat."--instead of not to rock the boat and drive it paralyzed into the iceberg,what about preparing to leave with the liveboat early enough?
I don't think soaring Gold prices can really rock that boat so hard to sink it!?

PIMCO etc.,admittedly Europe is also knee deep in the US$ swamp-comes from if you Trust the Bankers (Trust) too much (to copy Cobra...).The Gold is not being crucified you say-maybe it already IS (GATA),maybe for the fact a large chunk is stored (now too deep to recover) in the USA?Or is being sold (with fanfare) from there to a "closer" partner (without fanfare buying).Theres still this schizophrenic MTmyownmanipulatedMarket.We'll see how this lease rates drama evolves now :-)

There just is not much maneuvring room left for Europe,if at all-just the continuation of the present under Another numeraire.Under this context the "virgin with the MTM Gold dowry" is not that much a virgin (perceived as).

This brings us to your next (interesting) point about neutrality-if seen as continuation of the (imperialistic) US with other means (numeraire/paint),theres a contradiction brewing.

The neutrality hasn't been officially formulated-but one should judge by action,not words/paper.Switzerland has been some kind of an inofficial world standard currency for some time without formulating it-it anyway couldn't handle big flights to its currency and at some time had to implement negative IR for foreigners.

Neutrality needs a good amount of official Gold back up as a sign of independence and potency.It takes guts to withstand accusation of neutrality=crime (AA international intrigant Israel Singer recently in a speech).Biased is neutrality always (everyone knew in WW2 on which side we were).

Then there must be a high internal cohesion ("a nation of will" we call it),not those random fifty something % in the recent constitution votes.Turkey as a member is a no go in that regard (Spaltpiltz)-okay,Angela Merkel might change this Neocon TrojanHorse into a prefered trading partner.

If what fits to a small Switzerland will also fit the big Europe?

masSo how does this work?#1355979/4/05; 06:19:21

I'm going to send you my processed fuel, which should arrive in the next ten days. But at what cost to the consumers that are having their fuel prices rise three times in one week?
From the BBC. Not the complete story as it doesn't touch on who will pay for the replacements.

Emergency action

IEA members - which include the UK, France, Germany and Japan - hold a combined stockpile of 4 billion barrels, 1.4 billion of which governments control for emergency use.

The two million barrels a day being released for the next month is roughly equivalent to the daily output of Kuwait - and much of it is held in the form of petrol products which need no further processing.

ToolieUAE will decide on conversion of forex reserves into euros#1355989/4/05; 06:55:55

Snip: Dubai: The UAE Central Bank will decide this month whether it should convert some of its foreign exchange reserves into euros from dollars, Sultan Bin Nasser Al Suwaidi, governor, said yesterday.
He said the board will review the exchange rate between the greenback and the euro and make a decision.
"The dollar-euro exchange rate is fluctuating and we haven't seen the end of fluctuations," he said.
In July, a Central Bank official said the bank might convert five per cent of its foreign exchange reserves to euros from dollars. The euro gained nearly 60 per cent against the dollar in the three years to 2004. (end snip)

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A world of gold at your fingertips...#1355999/4/05; 12:35:31">gold -- a global calling card
Chris PowellU.S. govt. often surreptitiously props up stock market, Sprott report says#1356009/4/05; 14:01:32

Latest GATA dispatch.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

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Belgian@Knallgold#1356019/4/05; 14:49:18

Whilst Euroland (and EMU) is still being ridiculed...the unification proceeds ! Let the dogs bark...whilst the caravan keeps going.

A rising $-POO AND a stable euro is good enough for non EU states to exchange their dollar-reserves for (gold)euro !

The lilliputan state of Belgium committed more than 1,000 tonnes (one thousand) of its gold-wealth-reserves...ABSOLUTELY NOT... FOR NOTHING (read more dollars) ! We are not (never were) absurdistan.
Don't take my word for it...but simply think soberly logical/pragmatical.
Do you really ...really...think that we throw real "gold-wealth" away for two times nothing !? Same story for Zwitserland and all the other states !

It is very counterproductive for understanding what is happening with gold, when one sticks obsessionally to the conclusion that all CBs are all very stupid at the same time.

Have a cool/objective and realistic view on the evolution of prosperity on this globe during the past 7 decades. It happened under the $-IMS and we achieved someting. Unfortunately this type of IMS has had its good/best times.
This doesn't mean that we have been stupid. It worked...and now it is working less and less.

Don't demand black on white evidence or insight into the future. Things simply do evolve. Ignore and/or ridicule the MTM concept. And about the very nature of Euroland's neutrality we could exchange ideas for hours and still don't agree on it. Simply because we are all biased/subjective and interprete the consequences of the facts differently. An example : Why is the Middle East announcing, after Asia did, that it is shifting into the (z)-euro and out of the $ wich is the $-IMS numeraire!?

Please review your theory about the effects of a rising goldprice + a changing goldpricing on that $ of the $-IMS !
Allow me to repeat that rising oilprices are a devaluation of the dollar...are a shifting away from the $-IMS that was build (temporary) on the $-oil standard. Oil + the dollar cannot remain for ever, "the standard" ! Fixed gold (price frozen) cannot either become (remain) a standard (pseudo standard). A lot of CB-gold has been committed for having the transition into a new modern MTM goldstandard.
We don't need an EU constitution to support/carry this. Japan lived with a non Japanese constitution (neutrality-?) for 6 decades now. BTW, THEY MIGHT CHANGE IT IN NOV.'05. What about Irak's constitution ?

Common Knallgold, there's plenty of reasons to remain mega-optimistic about gold...wealth in possession. Don't let the price-fixing dominate your insights into gold's nearby bright future ! View the EU/EMU/EURO in its correct context as a platform from wich MTM gold-wealth will be launched. Not by the (neutral) EU itself ...but by those new forming coalitions that will embrace the concept. That's WHY precious was (is still) committed !!!

Belgian@Knallgold#1356029/4/05; 15:49:18

Over and over again we do hear about intervention/regulation/manipulation of things financial and gold ! THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT "-POLITICAL-" ECONOMY/FINANCE/MONETARISM MEANS !!! This "-SYSTEMIC-"...inherent on the system. And the system is the $-IMS and the political interventions are specific to support and use this system.
That's why a change of this system will also be a "political" change on a global scale. Think global now !!!

Think about the very reasons why the interventions have risen so dramatically in time(duration) and magnitude ! This is about the $-IMS and nothing else. We cannot afford to have healthy slow-downs/crashes, anymore. Neutrality under these circumstances means not make any move to rock the boat. Don't let the price of gold explode...don't let the Dow or dollar crash...don't push the oilprice/IRs up too far too fast...etc. Keep on intervening and align to this intervention as to postpone the political change. Measured pace !

Look at € and $-gold against this present background and just imagine that this's different. Interventions are "nothing" new...but at present, the interventions' nature is a desperate one (think about de derivatives). That's really different NOW !

The change in political minds is not much affected by some particular/sporadic, spectacular events. Changes are growing and evolving steadily, gradually. Contained POG rises to $500-$ absolutely NOT going to change anything on the political support/use of the $-IMS. It is the "-goldpricing-" that will make the fundamental difference and determine the nature of the changes. But how many goldbugs do realize the difference between goldprice and gold-pricing ? Sprott (GATA) realizes (again) that the Dow-pricing is being manipulated WITHOUT thinking (elaborating) WHY exactly this has to be done. If and when the Dow-pricers allow the Dow to crash...will they change their pricing policies ? No they will not. But when the gold-pricing changes...a hell of a lot will change with it. Meritocracy, remember ?

BoilermakerEU Constitution#1356039/4/05; 15:51:08

The proposed EU Constitution failed the important test of customer acceptance. It is a document by and for the myriad political and financial interests in Europe that tried to satisfy all of their vested interests. Its creators forgot that the 99.9% of those affected could not read/digest/understand its hundreds of pages without many hours of interpretation and tutoring. No wonder it was soundly defeated.

The original issue of the US Constitution is about a 10 page document (in today's page format) that encapsulated all the important governmental functions and personal rights that could be read and understood (with annotation) in one hour by a reasonably intelligent person. Why did the creators of the EU Constitution think that their monstrosity would pass the test of customer acceptance? Is there any effort to find a simpler version that addresses the concerns of the 99.9%?

Unfortunately the US has substantially departed from the fundamentals espoused by their Constitution. But it still stands as a beatiful document created by great men. The EU would be well advised to use it as a model.

PanGod news from the GOLD front inThailand! The way people will soon start to think all over the world!#1356049/4/05; 17:34:37

Special: ‘View gold imports as a symbol of wealth’

Published on September 05, 2005

One of the Kingdom's biggest gold-importers has asked the government to consider the importation of gold as symbolic of wealth and sovereignty rather than a major factor of trade deficits.

"Gold imports represent the country's wealth, which once phased the country out of its economic crisis. We consider these imports as comparable to an accumulated reserve fund which any country with a strong economy should have," said Kritcharat Hirunyasiri, president of MTS Group, a leading gold-importer as well as wholesaler and retailer of gold ornaments under the "Mea Thongsuk" brand.

He added that in the near future gold would play a more important role than the US dollar as a high-value reserve fund. In fact, some developed countries now accumulate gold for their reserves instead of dollars, he noted.

He questioned whether the current import-control policy on fuel, steel and gold was on the right track to curb the trade deficit, saying that the value of gold would almost always increase but fuel and steel were disposable goods.

Goldsmiths’ shops import gold in response to heavy purchasing, he said, not for the purpose of building stockpiles or price speculation because of volatile daily prices.

According to research conducted by a graduate student of the National Institute of Development Administration, Thais’ motivation for gold purchases has changed from buying ornaments to savings and long-term investment, because they realise that gold is an item of high liquidity, easy to sell, so that people are buying more gold to provide security for their lives.

Another important factor behind high gold imports is the rising demand of gem and jewellery manufacturers due to export growth, the student says.

According to private-sector estimates, Thailand's gold imports rose 39 per cent to about US$600 million (Bt24.6 billion) during the first seven months of this year. Of the total, HR Gold and Silver Co Ltd, MTS Group's gold-importing arm, accounted for US$208 million, said Kritcharat.

On the other hand, the Commerce Ministry reported that the value of the country's gold imports had jumped 39 per cent to US$2.33 billion during the same seven months. The MTS Group's import value reached US$64.27 million.

Faced with the discrepancy in these figures, Commerce Minister Somkid Jatusripitak has ordered the departments concerned to come up with a real figure in conjunction with the Customs Department.

Kritcharat added that gold consumption in many regions, Japan, China, India and the Middle East among them, was increasing, suggesting that the fluctuating value of the dollar had convinced people to invest more in gold.

Many countries also set up funds to buy gold as they foresee low risk but high return. Even TMB Bank has set up a fund aboard to invest in the gold market.

Gold prices have increased from US$270 per ounce in 2001 to US$450 in 2005. Local prices also rose from Bt7,500 per baht weight (15.16 grams) last year to Bt8,500 this year.

"We import gold because of high demand. Nobody wants to shoulder risks from speculation in the gold price because of price fluctuations and the high value of holding it," Kritcharat said.

Government limits on gold imports will only distort the market mechanism and lead to price speculation, he added, as the measure only motivates people to buy more gold.

Kritacharat pointed out that gold ornaments were particularly popular among female workers, who liked to buy a small piece almost every month.

There are about 6,000 goldsmiths in Thailand with an average of 50 to 100 shops per province. This shows that gold is a stable business that reflects the country's overall economic stability, he said.

Turning to supply, the Thai-Australian free-trade agreement has not increased the country's gold imports because it has no tariff on gold. Australia is a major source of gold imports because of lower shipping costs compared to Switzerland, with the same high standard of purity.

Kritcharat said that Thailand started exporting gold in response to the economic crisis of 1997. Thailand exported an estimate of 30-40 tonnes of gold worth Bt17 billion bringing in US dollars to strengthen the country's foreign reserves.

The crisis also created a new business opportunity for the Thai gold industry by allowing it for the first time to export. Of the total Bt17 billion in 1997, the MTS Group accounted for Bt5 billion to Bt6 billion, ranking the company as Thailand's second biggest gold-exporter.

"Foreigners didn't believed that Thailand could export such a huge amount of gold," Kritcharat said.

At that time, people stopped buying gold because of their low purchasing power, and spending went on more essential goods. Moreover, they sold their gold to get the money for necessary expenses. As a result, goldsmiths’ shops faced a cash-flow shortage from unbalanced trading which prompted them to export more gold.

Kritcharat said the government should consider the importance of importing gold as something people invest in by themselves.

Achara Pongvutitham,

Petchanet Pratruangkrai

The Nation

Clink!People getting angry #1356059/4/05; 18:18:41

Will New Orleans turn out to be a tipping point ? Very possibly. While we here at the Forum have been marvelling at the eerie calm pervading managed markets, others have been ranting about the lack of reaction to perceived imbalances in the American life. From Bill Maher, who, in his "I'm Swiss" show said that what p****s him off is that no-one else seems to be p****d off, to Steven Pastis, creator of the "Pearls before Swine" strip (try and read today's edition). Concerning New Orleans, there's Lou Rockwell (see URL) who needs no introduction here, to Celine Dion who made Larry King look extremely uncomfortable last night by her outburst.

While it is deplorable that what happened had to happen in order to motivate people, this might be the moment when SIGNIFICANT numbers get up off their duff, turn off the "reality" shows on TV, and actually get out an DO something !

Sorry for the rant. It heartens me that on a holiday weekend, there have been very few posts - this means that people have actually been getting a life ! Gotta go, I'm on BBQ duty.


Chris PowellIn reply to Belgian and his friends, the Masters of the Universe#1356069/4/05; 19:30:02

Like most participants here, I enjoy Belgian's posts, especially since they are a bit less cryptic than those of his predecessors in the presumption to omniscience here, Another and Friend of Another.

Further, I'm ready to accept the possibility that, as he suggests, Belgian has a direct line to the Masters of the Universe and knows exactly what they intend for us and the international financial system. While it would be nice if Belgian could explain his connection and authority, I can understand that doing so might put him in some jeopardy, and so I would prefer to be able to read his observations on whatever terms he makes than not to be able to read them at all.

But Belgian's criticism today of Sprott Asset Management's new report on surreptitious U.S. government intervention in the stock market and of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee for endorsing and publicizing the Sprott report seems out of order.

Belgian writes: "Sprott (GATA) realizes (again) that the Dow pricing is being manipulated WITHOUT thinking (elaborating) WHY exactly this has to be done."

No doubt the Masters of the Universe have their reasons, but if they have shared them with Belgian, they have not shared them with Sprott, GATA, stock and gold market investors, and the various publics they are supposed to represent. As a result, the Masters of the Universe are perpetrating an enormous deceit, which Belgian once again is rationalizing and approving. That is not how democracy is supposed to work, and we have a right to expect democracy, even if Belgian finds it a bit quaint.

In fact Sprott, GATA, and others are not quite as ignorant as Belgian suggests. Many times Sprott, GATA, and others have offered surmises about the motives and purposes of the gold price suppression scheme and the stock market support scheme. But, perhaps quaintly again, we still consider honest and transparent government to be a higher virtue, and we wonder why, if the Masters of the Universe are doing only what they and Belgian think has to be done, the world can't be let in on the secret. (Whose money is it, anyway?)

Maybe if government policy was forced more into the open the world financial system would not, in the first place, get into a position as precious as the current one.

In any case, Sprott and GATA would be delighted to hear directly from Belgian's friends the Masters about how they know so much better for us than we know ourselves. Perhaps Belgian would be so kind as to pass the word along. They'll know where to find us -- we're in the book -- even as we don't know where to find them, nor, for that matter, Belgian himself.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Liberty HeadThe face of futility#13560709/04/05; 23:55:17

Highly recommended for those who place their faith in gov't solutions.

Best Wishes

Gandalf the WhiteKhop Khun Krup, Sir Pan#1356089/5/05; 08:52:06

Pan (9/4/05; 17:34:37MT - msg#: 135604)
Thanks !

Chris PowellIn reply to Belgian and his friends, the Masters of the Universe#1356099/5/05; 09:18:44

Like most participants here, I enjoy Belgian's posts, especially since they are a bit less cryptic than those of his predecessors in the presumption to omniscience here, Another and Friend of Another.

Further, I'm ready to accept the possibility that, as he suggests, Belgian has a direct line to the Masters of the Universe and knows exactly what they intend for us and the international financial system. While it would be nice if Belgian could explain his connection and authority, I can understand that doing so might put him in some jeopardy, and so I would prefer to be able to read his observations on whatever terms he makes than not to be able to read them at all.

But Belgian's criticism today of Sprott Asset Management's new report on surreptitious U.S. government intervention in the stock market and of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee for endorsing and publicizing the Sprott report seems out of order.

Belgian writes: "Sprott (GATA) realizes (again) that the Dow pricing is being manipulated WITHOUT thinking (elaborating) WHY exactly this has to be done."

No doubt the Masters of the Universe have their reasons, but if they have shared them with Belgian, they have not shared them with Sprott, GATA, stock and gold market investors, and the various publics they are supposed to represent. As a result, the Masters of the Universe are perpetrating an enormous deceit, which Belgian once again is rationalizing and approving. That is not how democracy is supposed to work, and we have a right to expect democracy, even if Belgian finds it a bit quaint.

In fact Sprott, GATA, and others are not quite as ignorant as Belgian suggests. Many times Sprott, GATA, and others have offered surmises about the motives and purposes of the gold price suppression scheme and the stock market support scheme. But, perhaps quaintly again, we still consider honest and transparent government to be a higher virtue, and we wonder why, if the Masters of the Universe are doing only what they and Belgian think has to be done, the world can't be let in on the secret. (Whose money is it, anyway?)

Maybe if government policy was forced more into the open the world financial system would not, in the first place, get into a position as precarious as the current one.

In any case, Sprott and GATA would be delighted to hear directly from Belgian's friends the Masters about how they know so much better for us than we know ourselves. Perhaps Belgian would be so kind as to pass the word along. They'll know where to find us -- we're in the book -- even as we don't know where to find them, nor, for that matter, Belgian himself.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

R PowellPowell reply to Powell post#1356109/5/05; 10:03:44

Over the many years that some of us have been conversing here (and elsewhere), I have formed the opinion that a great deal of what is presented here (and elsewhere) is often more opinion than fact. This is unavoidable and, in and of itself, not a bad situation. I treasure most posts that offer facts, information and references to same much more than those which do not. After the factual information is presented, then, of course, one's interpretation of what those facts imply in the past, present and the future is the basis for discussion, leading to "opinions".

All this is probably self-evident but needed stating to support my "opinion" that Chris Powell is correct in questioning anyone's statements or opinions, no matter how well presented, as to whether or not those opinions are based on facts. However, I do acknowledge that some infomation can not be presented or can not be substantiated, for whatever reasons. That some may...MAY...have access to closely guarded sources of infomation which can not be disclosed is always a possibility. But to imply that such is the case and further imply that access to such should lend greater credibility to that person's words, simply does NOT impress me. Maybe I'm a cynic or maybe I've been fooled too many times in the past but I'll second Chris's post. Show me the info + the sources so that I, too, may clearly differentiate between facts and opinions, and thus be able to form my own opinions, based upon factual info + insightful discussion.
happy holiday to all...!

R PowellReply to reply#1356119/5/05; 10:21:42

May I reply to my own (135610) post?

Of course, yes. I merely would like to add that that "opinion" is held on a universal basis, that is, it is applicable to ALL and not directed at any ONE.

Also, it is just one man's (mine) opinion as to the noteworthiness (value?) of any postings. As such, it probably means very little. It is just a plea for more factual information, footnotes, if you will, to support our varied beliefs, and increase the quality of information presented here.
Again, Happy holiday to those who today rest from labor.

968Petrodollars Could Turn Out To be Bush' Achilles Heel#1356129/5/05; 10:38:00

"It is common knowledge that world oil is traded in US dollars, under an agreement signed by all OPEC countries. All countries that trade the black gold must first go to the foreign exchange markets to purchase dollars and do their trading. The US is very happy with this arrangement, simply because it can pay for its current account deficit in dollars. This means that the deficit can rise without all that much negative effect on the country's finances. Why? All the oil that is traded is far bigger than the country's current accounts deficit (which this year will rise to the tune of USD700 billion.)"

"The impact that a move to the Euro would have would be most detrimental to the US economy. "American economic dominance would be over. Not only would Europe not need as many dollars anymore, but Japan which imports over 80% of its oil from the Middle East would think it wise to convert a large portion of its dollar assets to euro assets (Japan is the major subsidiser of the US because it holds so many dollar investments)", says C--il'n Nunan of the Foundation for the Economics of Sustainability. The rest of the world would stop financing the US' trade gap, the dollar would plummet and the trade deficit would rise beyond proportions ever seen as the country would be forced to purchase very expensive euros to keep their SUV's guzzling."
An interesting article.

968BIS Quarterly Review : International banking and financial market developments#1356139/5/05; 11:19:59

"In conclusion, three statements of ascending breadth can be made about the importance of official financing of US external deficits in 2004. Strictly speaking, the official sector, in purchasing US liabilities onshore, financed 59%
of the US current account deficit in 2004 ($395 billion out of $668 billion; Table 5). Including offshore holdings, however, foreign officials bought enough dollars to have financed three quarters of that deficit ($498 billion). Note that the gap between these shares was narrower in 2004 than in 2003, when 53% contrasted with 81%. This narrowing reflects both the deceleration of reserve growth in 2004 compared to 2003 and the working-out of the stock adjustment process evident in Graph 4. Recall, however, that these offshore holdings do not immediately finance US deficits, since they involve the liabilities of residents of other countries. But certainly the official increase in global official dollar reserves, whether placed on shore or offshore, supports the dollar.
The extent of that support might be most appropriately compared with the US economy's overall dollar financing requirements, ie the US net issuance of dollar liabilities, rather than the size of the current account deficit. This net issuance by the United States exceeds the (absolute size of the) current account deficit by the US acquisition of foreign currency assets in any year. In
effect, the US economy is going short the dollar, once to finance an excess of imports of goods and services over exports, and twice to finance the acquisition of foreign equities, corporate assets and foreign currency
denominated bonds. On this showing, increases in global official dollar reserves did less of the work, serving as counterpart to 51% of the increase in the US short dollar position in 2004 (comparing the second and last rows of
Table 5). A still broader view, taking in offshore dollar borrowing and lending, remains to be reached through further investigation.
Thus, it is both easy to understate and possible to overstate the role of foreign official support for the dollar. While global reserve managers have lost their strongest reason to place dollars outside the United States, they continue to place large sums offshore. The dollar is supported wherever officials place
their dollars. The increase in global official dollar reserves is most sensibly compared not to the US current account deficit, but to a wider notion of the US
financing requirement in dollars.
In table 3.3 I also see that the net issuance of bonds in euros continues to rise, while the issuance of bonds in US dollar continues to decline.

Towncrier, can you please share your fine toughts with us ?

mikalSeptember Markets #1356149/5/05; 12:17:46

968 - Good links as always!
Belgian- Keep up the good work and especially the European perspective, info and inspiration.
Powell cousins- Erudite and entertaining! 5 Stars! (Life is a movie/drama/play). I never fail to learn from the posts here. Thanks to all.

My very abridged IPO(Impartial Personal Observations on September markets), with thanks to our hosts for inexhaustible tolerance:
Summer's effect is wearing off and in the U.S. many will return from holiday including some enigmatic inside Traders within and without the establishment.
Fed liquidity injections and repos continue in unpredictable supply patterns as Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) & Plunge Protection Team(PPT), the official President's Working Group on Financial Markets actively spike and exaggerate economic android hyperactivity. And thus we are liberally bestowed with multifarious maladjustments financial, social and psychological on top of those meteorological.
In this September season, speculation will resume on solar flares affect on the tropics, Greenspan's recent cynical comments, debtpiles public & private, peak oil & fuel pinching, Katrina affects, social injustice, Iraq & M.E., China, Russia, tariffs, freestyle statistics, anything-goes accounting, contorted yield curves & carribean carousings. Derivatives as far as the eye can see and beyond, especially in the metals markets are approaching a day of reckoning of some sort IMO.
All this and more will mix up & mess up somebody's currency and metals market playgrounds like nothing we've ever seen.

All have a peaceful, relaxing day(or holiday).

TrumanThere's two different angles#1356159/5/05; 13:54:26

it's patently unfair and sinister for chris powell to characterize belgian as "once again is rationalizing and approving."

anyone who's ever followed belgian's work with any amount of understanding could never say such a thing. belgian doesn't waste time "approving" because he spends his time seeing and expaining the forest beyond the trees. and he doesn't need to provide credentials because his explanations alone resonate with the ring of truth to anyone who is able to hear them who isn't clouded by their own agenda.

and that happens to be the problem with chris powell and his friends with gata credentials. instead of having a pure interest in seeing the forest for what it is, powell and gata have an additional interest in raising money for themselves. as a result they can't stand let themselves be upstaged by a better forest ranger like belgian who's doing away better exposé at no cost to the reader. belgian and several others here are giving a better big picture explanation for free and it's maddening to gata who never quite has been able to put the clues together among themselves to offer much bang for the buck to their adherents.

don't lose heart, belgian, the product of your great vision is flying high above the reach of gata's primitive slings and arrows of frustration.

OvStwo different angles?#1356169/5/05; 14:38:26

Maybe it's a matter of class.
A generals view is different
from a captain's. Murphy &
Powell do a remarkable job
on their level and Belgian's
outshines us all.
But we need more comments like
yours, TrueMan, where are you
hiding all the time? Nothing
like a lively debate. OvS

R PowellCOT#1356179/5/05; 14:43:05

As always, these numbers are compiled at the close of trading on the Tuesday of last week. They were released to the public on Friday last.
OvSAn "old" (im)poster's message#1356189/5/05; 14:51:37

Two days ago an old poster
signed off with the words:
"an x-friend" of America.
Never mind him. Without this
"American" site he would be
lost. Whatever he took, it'll
wear off. Hurry up, fellow.

Chris PowellDo we want to reach the world or remain a cult?#1356199/5/05; 14:56:05

Truman writes that it is unfair to assert that Belgian is "rationalizing and approving" the surreptitious manipulation of the markets. And yet this is what Belgian wrote:

"Sprott (GATA) realizes (again) that the Dow pricing is being manipulated WITHOUT thinking (elaborating) WHY exactly this has to be done."

If "has to be done" does not signify rationalizing and aproval, maybe Belgian can clarify what it does signify. GATA and, it seems, Sprott do not agree that the manipulation of the markets "has to be done." Neither, I suspect, do most participants in this forum agree.

Maybe Belgian means that the manipulation of the markets "has to be done" for the sake of perpetuating the current allocation of economic power in the world. Or maybe he means that the manipulation of the markets "has to be done" for the good of the world as a whole. But he wrote what he wrote and Truman's mere indignation that it should be taken at its plain meaning is no explanation of it.

Truman sneers at GATA's interest in raising money. But GATA is an educational and civil rights organization that is audited by the IRS and spends most of the money it raises on publicizing its findings and the relevant findings of others on a worldwide basis. Tomorrow GATA will distribute, via the Business Wire service, an international press release about the latest Sprott report on market manipulation. The distribution of the release will cost GATA about $900; the research and writing have been volunteered by GATA's officers without charge. The hope is, as always, to reach a wider audience than can be reached by postings at gold-oriented Internet sites -- to reach an audience wide enough to change the world. For, with all due respect to our noble host here, cultish postings at Internet sites are NOT, by themselves, going to change the world. If Truman can suggest ways of reaching a wider audience without needing to raise money, he'll be doing our cause a great favor.

Of course some people with knowledge of the manipulation of the gold, currency, and stock markets seem not to want that knowledge to reach a wider audience; they seem to want that knowledge to remain the property of a cult. Maybe that is the real disagreement here.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Trumanchris, so much blah blah blabbity blah#1356209/5/05; 15:08:45

you duck the issue and divert attention. why do you hang yourself on your own interpretation behinds belgian's use of the little word "has" and completely ignore his capitalized "without" and "why"?

maybe you would be kind enough to explain why this ducking and diversion "has" to be done by you on behalf of the gata team, and why you "have" to interpret belgian's comment the way you have.

there. see how "has" can be used?

OvSRealpoletik#1356219/5/05; 15:10:29

Chris, please.
It's ok to play the saint.
But in that world we would
not need gold. A handshake
will do.
The fact is: The dominant
world-power has alway tried
to defend itself throuout
the ages. Just about anything
goes...King, Democrat, Commune
-ist, you name it. Until we
can kill that little evil in
all of us those rules rule.OvS

R PowellMikal // Sept. markets#1356229/5/05; 15:28:16

Thanks for the list of "multifarious maladjustments" topics to consider as we pass the Labor Day date which enough traders + market movers believe is the end of the slow, summer market time. If enough believe, it may be true, at least in market games wherein short-term perception often trumps reality.

Now, all that's needed is to work hard enough to completely master all the facts + coming possibilities, factor in the improbable odds of another black swan event (like Katrina) and place our bets. And here I'd been under the impression this economic stuff was complicated..(G)

I noted in the gold COT numbers that the so-called commercials added about 54,000 contracts long (outright longs plus short-covering) during that one week time frame. Quiet markets are usually not that volatile.

Over many years of watching, I have come to respect Leonard Kaplan's views on the silver market. He was about the only one to correctly state that silver was more the object of speculative excesses than a truely demand driven market during the silver runup from about $4.00 to about $8.50+ (overnight high). However, should we now say that $4.00 silver is too cheap and that the excess was about $1.50 ($8.50-$1.50) since silver seems to have been so happy for so long now, to be trading around $7.00..?? But remember, silver fell from $8.50 to about $5.50. So, what do you think an ounce of silver is worth in dollar terms... about $7.00? And, what will she be a year from now? Any thoughts? Fwiw, Kaplan based some of his past silver analysis on the COT numbers which, if I understand him correctly, he would now classify as favorable for a price move higher. Obviously, there was a time during that great silver move of yesterdays, when his views were wrong as silver keep moving higher even after the numbers became what some call severely "overbought". I can't really say that I've found anyone who can consistently call the markets correctly + also time them correctly. I don't expect I ever will. Maybe those people exist but keep their opinions to themselves.
COT they contain any predictive value?

Belgian@Truman#1356239/5/05; 15:56:03

Thanks for the warm, friendly, compliment. The insignificant Belgian lilliputan shrimp will continue to analyse gold's future in its entire context. With communicative dialoque if possible and productive, without ...if impossible.

It is at this site (USAGOLD) that I discovered, at the right moment, what this planet is much about and where to it probably is evolving. My affinity to gold was/is not new, as I have been mentioning during the past years that I was tolerated as a guest, here.

I do understand Chris Powell's (GATA) reaction perfectly. And I don't wish to take the wind out of his (their) sails...or anyone else's.
It is about "gold" (gold's future) and it is my firm (very) personal opinion that there is a lot of divisive and unproductive mis-information (purposely and unpurposely) on the (seemingly complex) gold matters.

A lot of the gold mis-information, from whatever angle it comes, always easily finds a wellcoming feeding bottom (agar-agar petri plate). This mis-information keeps us, most of the time, far away from what exactly is going on with gold. The constant red goldtape.

What is the main difference between the gold statists and those who came to the conclusion that something is definitely the "angle" from wich gold is looked at. Herein lies the main conflict amongst the gold affectionados. A conflict that kills the productive (gold)dialoque.

Our difference of opinions on gold's future is an asset to the gold interventionists.

What is the relevance of facts that are completely mis-interpreted ? Why are some very important (gold)facts (and their context) constantly ignored and minimalized ? Right,...because it causes conflict.

Are we cultivating gold-dreams by ignoring the (geo-political) realities ? Yes, we are...when we stick to (gold)dramatism (comedia del arte).
Should we continue advocating freegold if there are sufficient indications that freegold is impossible ? Sure, we should...but in the other case we better unite with a broad consensus on what is happening...the GLOBAL (!!!) context in wich gold is evolving.

And if gold's future happens to be the final reducer of dollar be it. If freegold can find a life "with" the dollar ($-IMS) let it be. But if gold must remain the $-hostage in order to have the $-IMS is my personal opinion that many on this planet do have something different in mind. I'm trying to detect that changing state of minds. I wish to find answers/explanations on the many goldfacts that fit completely in the big picture. It all has to make sense !

I really don't see what this (the above) has to do with Chris Powell's msg#135606...Belgian and his friends...

Belgian@Chris Powell#1356249/5/05; 16:08:49

Why do you approve intervention with events as the 1987 crash,... 9/11...or other exceptional events that you didn't mention ?
What's wrong with realizing (at my age of 55) that permanent ...broad and increasinglymassive, intervention is the very basic fundamental of "political" economy system...SYSTEM !? Am I making friends...more new friends... with such a conclusion !? I think it is rather the contrary !!!

mikal@RPowell#1356259/5/05; 16:41:50

Silver - Commercial net shorts at 2 year low - September 3, 2005 - Carl Löfberg - Excerpt reprinted by permission under Fair Use Doctrine of International Copyright Law:
"The current COT structure where we have comparatively high commercial net shorts in gold and comparatively low net shorts in silver is new and I don't claim to know what will happen short term. When I don't have strong opinions about the short-term I stick fully with the fundamentals. I believe that we are in a generational bull markets in both gold and silver for fundamental but different reasons. (Simply put: in Gold because of increased US deficits and dollar weakness and globally a lack of trust for any of the fiat currencies around and in silver mainly because it's an industrial metal with depleting inventories and a structural supply deficit [Any additional monetary demand for silver will simply take us to stratospheric levels IMO].) Whenever I make short term bets on the market it is only with a small portion of my portfolio."

Wise advice if you ask me Rich. Though not a trader, many of these insights & strategies can apply to investors like myself.
Despite the title, the topic of the essay is both silver AND gold.
Most of the article deals with very unique COT situations that you touched upon. Lofberg seems to spot them all, and suspends judgement on most of the data for the short term at least.

GoldiloxB and CP Debate#1356269/5/05; 17:42:21

Wow, this is like watching Mom and Dad argue after dinner. Belgian and CP are two of my heroes, and I wonder if they're both missing the forest for the trees to make their singular point?

There is much more they usually agree upon.

I think Truman's point about GATA fund raising is a bit of a low blow, as any organization needs operating funds. I've never seen GATA begging cash to the point of abandoing their principles.

The poster who suggested (a while back) that they should go to the miners for support is correct in theory, but Puplava's description of the pump and dump that most miners get caught up in explains why this isn't all that practical. The banksters have most of them by the "short and curlies".

GoldiloxFamily Heirloom Turns Out To Be Previously Unknown U.S. Gold Coin#1356279/5/05; 17:52:54

Here's some good holiday news.


CONCORD, N.H. -- Here's a small coin that's worth much more than its weight in gold. The dime-sized gold coin was made with California Gold Rush ore at the San Francisco Mint in 1854.

It was handed down from generation to generation in a northern California family and has been confirmed by New Hampshire experts as one of only 12 known surviving examples of its type.
The "Quarter Eagle" coin was unknown to researchers until a few weeks ago. When struck, it was worth $2.50, about a week's salary at the time, and it is expected to sell for more than $150,000 at auction in Beverly Hills, Calif., Sept. 18.

"The coin is only about the size of a dime and contains just one-eighth ounce of California gold, but I guarantee it will be worth much more than its weight in gold when it's sold at the auction," said John Kraljevich, director of research at American Numismatic Rarities of Wolfeboro, which authenticated the coin, and will auction it.

The seller, from northern California, who wants to remain anonymous, is a descendent of Chinese immigrants who worked the California gold fields in the mid-19th century. The family has owned the coin since the seller's great-grandfather, a scholar and Tai Chi master, acquired it sometime between 1856 and 1858, said Kraljevich.

The family took great care with the coin, Kraljevich said, and only one of the dozen known examples is in better condition.
Douglas Mudd, curator of the American Numismatic Association Money Museum in Colorado Springs, Colo., said only 246 Quarter Eagles were made in 1854.

"You get a sense of the raw frontier, the 49ers and everything else when you hold a coin like this," Mudd said Monday. "It's really the start of California, what it is today, occurring at that time. It really is a piece of history."

SmeagolAre there more optionses?#1356289/5/05; 18:19:51

A lively debate, to be sure, precious! (grin) We will throw in our own wrench...

The Euro-Massters designed the Euro as an alternative to the dollar. We assumes... sss... the Dollar-faction knows full well what is going on... how could they not? If we were them we would be looking for a go-around, a way to delay, weaken, short-circuit the Euro-plan. Short of nassty war, what if the US suddenly decided to mark it's own gold-reserves to market ssomehow? Unless...they have none?

We read the Euro-Consstitution for ourselfs. Far too complicated. Next to nothing for the common folks, lots of expansive powers for the bankers and politicians. No guarantee, no protection of the common property right to keep, bear, and trade It (or anything else). We would have voted NO, too.

We want gold freed, period...not jusst put in Another cage.


R PowellWhere's the disagreement#1356299/5/05; 18:55:17

Belgian's words here......

"Sprott (GATA) realizes (again) that the Dow-pricing is being manipulated WITHOUT thinking (elaborating) WHY exactly this has to be done. If and when the Dow-pricers allow the Dow to crash...will they change their pricing policies ? No they will not. But when the gold-pricing changes...a hell of a lot will change with it."

Are I right in concluding that both belgian and GATA agree that there is manipulation? Perhaps this is all that GATA wishes to publicize. Many do not believe such exists. Is it just that Belgian wishes to extend the premise by wondering why? Does he dispute the GATA premise. So where is the disagreement. Did I miss something entirely? It wouldn't be the first time.

Analogy is a poor form of logic but might we agree that 2 X 2 = 4. Now is that common belief somehow diminished merely because we did not question what 2 X 2 X 2 equates to? It's eight I believe but we can debate that without negating the earlier answer of 4.

There is an awful thin line between a good bartender and a thief. Market manipulation...??? I'm usually one of those who doubt it's continuous + intentional long term existence. And what exactly defines such? If a large trader buys or sells gold, is that manipulation, in a relativly small market. Ever try trading lumber or OJ? One large brokerage recommendation can sometimes cause huge swings. Manipulation? How about lumber tariffs or grain embargos. Manipulations or politics or both? How much of the last silver run to $8.50 was caused by market analysts pumping up silver at conventions across the country. The market cap of silver is very small. Did it happen that way...or was it initiated so?? Butterfly wings or wholesale manipulation or somewhere in-between? Or, as Belgian politics. There are always politics...always. Always shades of grey? Thoughts?

Chris PowellLet's review the discussion at this forum#1356309/5/05; 19:00:02

Let's review....

Yesterday Belgian took a gratuitous crack at GATA and Sprott, suggesting that, unlike him, they don't have a clue about the purposes of the gold price suppression scheme and the stock market support scheme and that these schemes are going to achieve what is best for the world.

I replied by asking Belgian's authority for claiming to know the purposes of these schemes, by challenging him as to whether these schemes indeed are best for the world, and by noting that GATA and Sprott many times have speculated about the purposes of those schemes, even as we don't yet have in hand the signed confessions of the perpetrators.

I also invited Belgian to clarify his remarks in case I had misinterpreted him.

Whereupon today Belgian reverted to the mysteriously omniscient, vague, and unresponsive, except to ask why I should approve government intervention in the markets.

Actually, the new Sprott report does NOT quite approve such intervention; rather, it asserts that an argument that most people may find persuasive will be made for intervention in rare emergencies, and so Sprott chooses to argue instead that intervention has gotten too frequent and out of control.

As for GATA, we're less in the business of advocating how the world should be run than the business of trying to discover and publicize how it IS being run.

Belgian writes: "Our difference of opinion on gold's future is an asset to the gold interventionists."

If Belgian is suggesting that he and I disagree on gold's future, I'll have to disagree, since I don't think I've expressed or even have that much of a view on gold's future and I don't think my view on gold's future is worth anything. (For, unlike Belgian, I have no connections to the Masters of the Universe and even less omniscience.) Again, in my work for GATA I'm interested mainly in finding out and publicizing what IS.

I'll also disagree with Belgian that any disagreement among gold's advocates is "an asset to the gold interventionists." So what are gold-friendly people supposed to do -- all fall into line and think the same thing? I had thought that gold's great virtue was its defense of individuality against the state and other large combinations. Any disagreement at this forum, and, indeed, ANYTHING at this forum is of NO consequence to the gold interventionists unless someone DOES something with it.

Yes, our buying gold, as individuals, can strike a very small blow, and if our talking to ourselves here facilitates that, it too helps in a very small way. But the world hardly knows yet that there ARE gold interventionists, and until it does, our dreams, selfish and noble alike, are just pipe dreams.

The big question remains what it has been since the beginning of the discussion here and, indeed, since a lot earlier than that. (Like the event recorded in Luke 3:10, among other events.) That is, what are all of us here going to DO about it?

Consistent with the recent tradition of the gold business, the answer seems to be not much, except maybe to sneer occasionally at those who ARE trying to do something about it. Hell, there aren't three people at this forum who will even sign their names to what they post!

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

mikal@RPowell#1356319/5/05; 20:18:36

Re: "Thanks for the 'mulifarious maladjustments' which enough traders and market-movers believe is the end of the slow, summer market-time."
I did not say the summer was slow, nor that "enough" of anyone was needed to change the markets.

SmeagolNow, now, precious...#1356329/5/05; 20:46:26

"Hell, there aren't three people at this forum who will even sign their names to what they post!"

...and are all the resst of us and our Thoughtses somehow relegated to lesser status, jusst because we doesn't? Tsk, tsk...not nice, Ssir Chris Powell, careless and not nice, to slap all faces... including those that may be on your side! >8-(

(aka David McNamee, FYI)

DruidReference a couple of Belgian's comments....#1356339/5/05; 21:51:26

"Belgian writes: "Sprott (GATA) realizes (again) that the Dow pricing is being manipulated WITHOUT thinking (elaborating) WHY exactly this has to be done.""

My own take on Belgian's, is that, the baby boom generation in this country has collectively been duped into transferring two generations of real savings from the banking system to the wall street casinos as represented by the DOW; S&P 500; NASDAQ and bond market. Revert these metrics that represent this perceived wealth down to real metrics of value and you wipe out the middle class in this country overnight while leaving them in debt for a very long time.

This is why I would think that the "Masters of the Universe", "them", "the powers that be" would want to move gently toward a change in medium for trading and pricing oil because any other way could create some real problems here and abroad.

Personally, what I would consider even more important for the "Masters" to focus on then propping up or intervening in the markets, would be, to move heaven and earth to keep cable TV up and running. If they should lose control of this medium, then God help us all.

"In fact Sprott, GATA, and others are not quite as ignorant as Belgian suggests. Many times Sprott, GATA, and others have offered surmises about the motives and purposes of the gold price suppression scheme and the stock market support scheme. But, perhaps quaintly again, we still consider honest and transparent government to be a higher virtue, and we wonder why, if the Masters of the Universe are doing only what they and Belgian think has to be done, the world can't be let in on the secret. (Whose money is it, anyway?)"

Understanding the last question quite possibly could clear up a lot of misconceptions. It's the government's "money" not yours or mine. There are sets of laws on the books that govern international transactions apart from domestic ones. The only real wealth that you own is your labor and and the use of that labor, for whatever endeavors, to earn and accumulate leased out units of account so that you can exchange them for things of real value. Antiquity has shown that given man's tendency towards mythos and belief systems involving paper assets (among other things), GOLD BULLION is the best form of real wealth to preserve your labor wealth.

I deeply appreciate all the work that GATA, Sprott and many others have put out over the years concerning the shenanigans in the paper gold market, but in my lowly opinion, this compilation of work still does not match the logic path concerning the power of political will that has been put out by ANOTHER, FOA, ARISTOTLE, BELGIAN, MINER49er, ARAGON III, MK, TOWNCRIER, SMEAGOL, and many, many others that I might have overlooked (my apologies).

mikalU.S. Bonds "safety" no longer rests in the "full faith and credit" of US gov't#1356349/5/05; 22:15:26 LENDERS & BORROWERS... WHICH ARE WHICH? - Ed Henry
Henry asks how safe can U.S. gov't securities and bonds be when it is the TAXPAYER, faced with falling wages and job losses, who must pay(smetimes double pay) the exponentially growing debt obligations of the gov't + interest + stolen entitlement program surpluses.

physicalmanNONE#1356359/5/05; 22:56:52

Howdy all,
Have not posted in a while, but read all of your thoughts and posts everyday. Am not getting into the arguments of the day as i feel both Belgian and Chris Powell have much to contribute here in the future. Remember folks, we all invest in physical gold, for whatever theory or opinion, but we all understand that you need the physical when the end game rears it's ugly head.
On some subjects that i feel the need to pass on. work all across the southeastern US in the timber and chemical industries and a helicopter co. Even with all the destrution of the last 13 months in the SE US the softwood industry is battling low prices(i consider anything under 325.00 per 1000 board feet to be a low price)Why is that? It must be that speculators on the nymex and cbot are setting the price of something they have no intention of every using or taking delivery of, just like many or all commodities.
So, i just keep on working for fiat, but,--instead of buying overpriced real estate, imported goods, or trying to keep up with the jones, i convert my fiat while i have the chance, to precious metals and long term storage of daily necessities while they can be bought cheaply with a worthless piece of paper. Only reason the paper still works folks is by faith, when most lose faith in the dollar, and they will in the not to distant future, then you'll need barter goods'survival items, etc.etc. Just look at what happened to folks in the last week who did not prepare. Anarchy in just 2-3 days,Stunning!!
I see people everyday buying3.89 meals, gasoline,groceries etc.etc. with credit cards. Many cannot afford the basics anymore on their weekly pay, they are living on credit and borrowed time.And i'm in arkansas right now, not a rich state. But in my home state of virginia and in ga. and north carolina, things are the same.
Get even more prepared than you are fellow knights and ladies of the round. The rules on bankrupcty are changing in just 6-7 weeks. They have corraled the sheeple and shearing time is coming, but in the fall, when it gets colder and the sheep most need their wool to stay warm.I personnaly think TPTB don't give a dang whether we sink or swim, only that enough of us make it that they have something left to rule over.
So, as trapper used to say (live small).And as BB says insurance in all 4 ways. TC
As always,FWIW,DYODD and anyone welcome to respon

SmeagolTrading on price#1356369/5/05; 23:26:20

"It must be that speculators on the nymex and cbot are setting the price of something they have no intention of every using or taking delivery of, just like many or all commodities."

Ssir Physicalman, we thinks you are right, precious... the entire market is become a casino, not a market. We thinks that trading on price is essentially the same thing as fractional reserve banking and that both should be outlawed... but alas! it has gone too far and on too long now, to have a happy ending. Gold holds a unique place and unlike other commodities the price-manipulation of It is tightly focussed to a certain outcome... but the Big Players involved are only "cooperating" to save their own interessts, in our humble opinion.

Expect the unexpected
Know the art of war

A prestidigitation
toward an outcome

Mistaken apprehensions
Gold will always win


TopazGold, currencies. #1356379/6/05; 02:15:11

Gold is the ultimate "Here and Now" Asset.
It will not change or deteriorate Today or the Today - 100 yrs in the future or past.
As such, a Gold Interest Rate seems oxymoronic however ...
...we see our Lease Rate has taken a dive recently, hmmm?

The Gold "Price" and it's discovery hinge very much on sufficient metal coming to market in the "Here and Now" to enable this price discovery to be managed across the future spectrum, as are Bonds, Equities, Currencies and, to a lesser extent, Commodities.

This LR drop (a derivative) is imo an indication that Metal (via GOFO) is not being as readily made available to the Market <NOW> as in the past.

If we are witnessing a manifestetion of Bullion Drought via GOFO, the first thing to suffer, under current arrangements will imo, be the Price.

BelgianINTERVENTIONS !!!#1356389/6/05; 02:32:47


Without this SYSTEMIC interventions, much of this planet would never have known the degree of prosperity that we (the lucky ones) enjoy today.

Living under the regime of POLITICAL ECONOMY means that the "real market" content permanently decreases.

What we have to see as "policies" are simply "interventions"...cfr. Sir Easy Al who's heading the $-IMS under wich the political (global) economies (finance and monetary affairs) do evolve.

Today, interventions have already grown to such an extend that "exposing" those interventions to the general public is already superseded. The general public has already all its eggs in the state's nests and these eggs are kept warm by permanent intervention of these states. Tillions of eggs !

Now, we arrived at the point where the WHY questioning becomes much more important, yes even vital. WHY do we have to continue to expand the systemic interventions (interest rates-debtlevels-currency exchange rates-stock markets-falsified stats-etc...)? Aren't we able to live under a "market" regime anymore ? How much of our perceived prosperity is virtual ? Are we REALLY -that- smart ?

No, we aren't...and more factions on this globe wish to maneuver out of this intervention mess.

Being members of the general public, there is not much (rather nothing) that we can do to hasten the process of (slow) change ! We are facing that enormous growing wall of interventions that gives us (cultivates) the warm perception of being/staying prosper.

One element, imo a very important (very fundamental) one, is the interventions on the gold matters (AND oil matters) during the past 3 decades. Again, there is absolutely nothing that we can do but observe, understand and interprete the evolution correctly. That's what makes this place (usagold) so unique. Unique, as to guide interest individuals in theit thoughts about anticipating adequatly the ongoing changes by suggesting that goldmetal in possession might be a very good idea.

For most of us, the all embracing force of intervention, (political economy) is extremely difficult to grasp...come to terms with it. We prosper,...don't we !? And I'm "making" money, ...don't I !? These are the real pipe dreams.
You are making (virtual) money, because we live under a regime where gold-wealth cannot express what your "so called" money, is really worth. SO WATH...are all (the masses of) debt-holders shouting ! I only live once and want the fun, NOW !
Fair enough. But this does NOT mean that the entire planet can be forced to continue living with such an attitude. And that's exactly what I think to observe as "the change" that is happening !

"-WHY-" have we been witnessing those CB goldsales (gold-maneuvering) in the past decade ? The WHY question is the only relevant one, rather than exposing (trumpeting) the fact that CBs announce "so called" goldsales.
"-WHY-" is the oilprice rising after 3 decades of relative price-stability ? Everybody sees (and feels) that price rise. "-WHY-" do stock markets remain so overvalued ? Everybody sees and knows that valuations are still extreme.
"-WHY-" are the supposed CB goldsales having a prize freezing effect on the POG ?
The main answer is...BECAUSE THE OLD REGIME IS BEING CHANGED !!! And this old (aging) regime cannot stay a little bit pregnant of change.

And the degree of intervention will not decrease when exposed to only a tiny fraction of the general public that is able to understand what is meant by intervention. How many that put its eggs into the Trillion financial industry, wishes to be informed (realize) to what extend interventions are permanently mis-pricing their (supposed)savings !? Close to zero.
Imagine that gold was saying what your digits are really worth. The interventionist political economy would never have been possible. How are you (GATA) (we-posters) going to expose this to the masses that enjoy their (temporary) prosperity ? Folks want to hear about the next gold/silvermine that's a candidate as a ten-bagger.
How come that not one single cat can (dares to) even imagine that the goldprice can shoot up by ten times. On the contrary, all do see the exhausting permanent freezing of the POG with the effect that the WHY question never gets a chance to be raised, lest be discussed.

The cultivation of the goldprice targets of $500-$600 has the effect that nobody wishes to hold any metal in possession and is "guided" into the paper-gold WITH THE LURING PROSPECT OF LEVERAGE (leveraged gains and loses) !!! A genial interventionist's trick.
Stay out of the metal and stick with the interventionist's papers.
WHY are CBs creating the untransparant atmosphere of general goldsales...? TO GET YOU INTO MORE GOLDPAPER ! WHY goldpaper ? Because the systemic interventional regime ($-IMS) meets an increasing resistance.

Those who wish to inform the general public about intervention...not the little forces of ESF (PPT)...but massive state intervention, also have to come up with a solid alternative. Is that alternative being much smarter in the financial speculation/gambling...or is it suggesting-argumenting that something very fundamental is changing in the gold matters as we have been knowing them during the past 3 decades ?

Of course, one will never ever get everybody on the same line. There must be a market ! But the market completely dominated by interventions is no market and will therefore cease to exist under the form w've known during our 2 generations lifetime.

Katrina : Why did Bush (the state) called Sir Al (the interventionist) ? Do you really think (believe) Sir Al is only called upon in case of an emergency ? No...Sir Al goes easy ALL THE TIME ! His successor will use the helocopters.
It is always the states that create the mess and is also the states that get us out of the mess...regardless of what the sheeple think or do. Let's be sheep who just are a fraction smarter than the group and anticipate the changes...correctly ! Forget about being able to have any impact on the a group of individuals. Watch the degree of absurdness that the states are producing as to have a guideline for the timing of your anticipation. View the CB's gold-actions (and many other actions) of this past decade against this background.

It is not only the United states that intervene, all states do. But all states converge and diverge in their interventional policies !!! The future holds less convergence around the (old) $-IMS and more divergence from it.
Read 968 ECB/IMF/BIS posts.

Interventions will not go away for the foreseeable future. Interventions are "changing". Managed markets brought us the level of prosperity that we enjoy today. If we wish to consolidate this achievement, the very nature of the interventions needs another basis (foundation). A MODERN GOLDEN ONE ! Not a dream...but the gold-actions of the past decades, do say so. Nothing is static and today's status quo has become impossible. States do know this very well !!!
But they act differently on this situation.
When we try to expose the states' interventions...they have a good laugh at us and's about time they are getting's about time to change it ! As simple as that.

PRITCHO@ R. Powell Re COT & SILVER - -- - Your 135622#1356399/6/05; 02:39:02,1&AR_T=1&GID=&linkid=3071&T_ARID=3101&cTID=0&cCat=&PRID=0&cSubCat=&archive=&highstr=&UArts=

Hi Rich -I enjoy your posts in general as we share Silver as a common interest.My Silver is mostly in physical form & I have not indulged in futures for a very long time.Like you I read most of what Ted Butler puts out & I believe his theory about the paper markets being manipulated.( I can't understand why that fact doesn't stand out for you)

I know little about COT but try to get understanding of a sort by reading articles such as the one recently by Dan Norcini. The gist of it was that the COT is all a big con where traders have been suckered time & again by believing the propaganda that the commercials ALWAYS win.
"Let me again repeat and then prove, for the umpteenth time, that there is no such thing as "all-knowing, all-wise, always-on-the-right-side-of-the-market" commercial traders."

It's well worth the read if you haven't already.(see link for article) I don't share your views about Leonard Kaplan but thats possibly because you're into trading & I'm not.I used to follow his snide remarks about Gold & Silver for years when he used to post at "another site" on a regular basis. He was & is NO FRIEND of the precious metals & took delight (posting under his handle of "Uptick"? )in rubbishing all who believed in a higher Gold/Silver price. He was /is on the side of the shorters & manipulators & is imho a complete a$$hole.

Anyway that's an aside & you have to take someone how you find them. Best.

Belgian@Topaz - good morning#1356409/6/05; 03:20:30

Bullion drought > The POG suffering !?
Yep, to mobilize simply has to agree to further intervene on its price. Nice systemic, isn't it.
Nice, because it makes it way much simplier to stop and reverse the existing (builded) systemic : Stop mobilizing the metal and price interventions break into pieces. Then the "pricing" of gold changes 180°.
That's what intervention and change of intervention is all about.

Eternal gold can be mobilized (moved in a carrousel) theoretically for ages. Does NOT automatically mean it will go on for ages !!!
Bear in mind that BIS is the planet's gold clearer and at the same time that BIS and ECB have a particular relationship, much different than BIS and IMF.
To stop the liquidity of gold is only (exclusively) a matter of political will ! These changes take place in the unreachable ivory towers. Just keep watching how the factual divergences on this (geo-political) globe are accelerating. Divergences on political will with regards to the $-IMS. East versus West over the euro pivot.

TopazHi Belgian.#1356419/6/05; 03:52:22

Just catching up.
Inside info? I can't recall you EVER claming any inside info ...just ANOTHER truth-seeker I'd have thought.

Anyway, loved Absurdistan, and Good Morning to you too ;-)

Moon-Phase goes orange Tomorrow, red Thur.

OvSBelgian#1356429/6/05; 03:54:18

First. Thank you Chris Powell
for enticing Belgian, which
gave us a wonderful response.
Second. The "changes" are
manifest in Palm Beach Society.
Third. Now, how does this
correlate with the Rothschild
EXIT? Or is this EXIT an ENTER
onto a new fulcrum in East-
West powershift?
Forth. Belgian's writing should
be collected separately as is
Another's and twin FOA's. OvS

TopazRich.#1356439/6/05; 04:19:44

Gee Mate, it's a conundrum this Aggie eh?

I'd posited Silver would run up (as usual) this month based on staccato deliveries in the previous delivery months, but at 5K already, I'm thinking they're already done or close to it for Sept.

With Comex an outstanding source of supply though, a 10K month and subsequent Ag moonshot wouldn't surprise ...MUCH!

We'll see, I really suck on Silver.

968@ Chris Powell / GATA#1356449/6/05; 05:09:33

Hello Chris,

I don't think Belgian launched an attack on GATA or Sprott, but simply expressed his thoughts (which I, and so many others appreciate very much), just like I like reading GATA's thoughts.

But this raises indeed particular questions on which I like to hear GATA's point of view :

- what is the purpose of the goldprice surpression according to GATA ?
- how are the European Central Banks involved and why ?
- how does GATA see gold in an (eventual) evolution from a dollar reserve system and to an another reserve system ?
- what is the benefit for the US (dollar) of a surpressed goldprice, and what is the benefit of a surpressed goldprice for euro-countries ?
- what did, according to GATA, Wim Duisenberg mean when he said : "the euro is the first currency that severed its link to gold..." ? (
- why did TPTB everything in their power in 1980 to get the POG back down ? Why couldn't they live with a high POG ?
- how do TBTB manage the POG according to GATA ? Last time GATA stated that the POG was managed because of the rising level of derivatives on gold (cfr. BIS statistics). The time before that it was because European Central Banks were selling gold. Can you elaborate this please ?
- any idea why goldproducers haven't created a similar cartel like OPEC ?

Thanks in advance for your answers, Chris.

White RoseI am not GATA, but I will try to answer anyway!#1356459/6/05; 05:38:14

I am only speaking for myself.

- what is the purpose of the goldprice surpression according to GATA? The purpose in 1980 was to financially ruin Russia. The purpose in 1994-2000 was to hold interest rates down to make a fairy land economy. The purpose 2000-present is to prevent total economic collapse.

- how are the European Central Banks involved and why? Their gold has been sold into the market to support the price suppression system. While doing so, they are building the Euro as an alternative to the dollar. As they pass scaps of wood to patch the dollar boat, they have taken scaps to build their own lifeboat.

- how does GATA see gold in an (eventual) evolution from a dollar reserve system and to an another reserve system? I will wait for GATA to answer that one.

- what is the benefit for the US (dollar) of a surpressed goldprice, and what is the benefit of a surpressed goldprice for euro-countries? A low dollar price helps the dollar. A high dollar gold price helps the Euro. A premature transition to a Euro centric universe sinks the Euro as well. The whole system needs to ripen.

- what did, according to GATA, Wim Duisenberg mean when he said : "the euro is the first currency that severed its link to gold..." ? ( Perhaps he meant that the Euro did not require gold sales to keep it afloat. It is meant as an dig against the dollar, slyly referring to its huge weakness. We have all heard that the dollar severed its connection to gold in 1971. But here he is clearly saying, that is not true. It is still linked to gold. But we are not.

- why did TPTB everything in their power in 1980 to get the POG back down ? Why couldn't they live with a high POG? The 1980 episode involved: dropping the price of gold, dropping the price of oil, sabotaging the Siberian natural gas pipelines, the creation of Barrick gold by intelligence agencies, and more to destroy Russia. It worked.

- how do TBTB manage the POG according to GATA ? Last time GATA stated that the POG was managed because of the rising level of derivatives on gold (cfr. BIS statistics). The time before that it was because European Central Banks were selling gold. Can you elaborate this please? Clearly there are a lot of pieces of paper in circulation that are considered equivelent to gold that are sold at various times to cause some to sell real gold. I am sure GATA can add more.

- any idea why goldproducers haven't created a similar cartel like OPEC? The management of gold companies are thick as thieves with the bankers. For example, Barricks is a front to take European central bank gold and re-sell it as newly mined gold (this one is brilliant. If you sell central bank gold openly, it raises the gold price because of less overhang. if you sell a new source of newly mined gold, it lowers the price because new supply lowers the price). I suspect there are a lot more scams than that.

OvSWhite Rose#1356469/6/05; 07:16:55

Nice sailing. We need more
input from you. This forum
is getting more interesting.
The most exciting happening
in many a moon has been the
viewing of "Entrapment" with
Zeta-Jones and Sean Connery,
a gold-relavent movie. OvS.

Chris PowellGATA press release on new Sprott report on market manipulation#1356479/6/05; 07:22:36

Business Wire via Yahoo business news.
Belgian@White Rose#1356489/6/05; 08:58:10

The first alinea of your answer 968 questions : 3 different reasons for having the POG surpressed in a timespan of 25 years ?

Can you explain how a surpressed goldprice (1980 ATH $850 back to $300) has ruined Russia, financially ?

1994-2000 > Rubin and Summers at work > Stock market irrational exhuberance.

2000-? > How would a rise in goldprice cause a total economic collapse ? Explain, please.

Don't you think that there can be only ONE reason for having the POG surpressed for such a long time, after the close of the gold-window ? One single reason that causes different effects at different times ?

If and when the goldprice gets out of its surpression and starts to rise...Will Russia flourish...Will the stock market/bondprices crash...Will the total economy collapse, because of the POG rise...or...will the POG rise, because the economy collapses ?

Allow me to add some more questions to 968's list :
- WHY did the whole planet agree on goldprice surpression up until now ?
- If in 1980 Russia was ruined by goldprice surpression...who or what benefitted from that surpression + the ruin of Russia ?
- Why do Asians continue to accumulate goldmetal while the goldprice remains surpressed for one or many different reasons ?

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No decrease in gold or gold recievables, again !
TownCrier968, Charlemagne Prize acceptance speech#1356519/6/05; 10:20:17

More conveniently, here is a hyperlink version of the URL you mentioned earlier, containing Duisenberg's key phrase, "It is the first currency that has not only severed its link to gold, but also its link to the nation-state."

Additionally, this is a modernized version of the page which incorporates a hyperlink upon that phrase that takes the reader to another 'chalkboard' page highlighting a helpful excerpt of Aristotle-Belgian dialogue on the crux of that very same matter, the nature of money (and the nature of gold).

The link to that page is in the section of Mr. Duisenberg's speech near the beginning within the section titled "A social contract".


White RoseWhite Rose response to Belgium#1356529/6/05; 10:36:42

Before I begin, I must say how much I have enjoyed nad learned from Belgium's posts. I jumped into this discussion because I hoped to learn something. Now that I am being pressed to give more detailed answers, it is my hope that this process will educate me and all others who post and read here. It is my hope and desire that as a consequence to my answers here, Belgium and others will educate and clarify.

<<The first line of your answer to 968's questions: 3 different reasons for having the POG surpressed in a timespan of 25 years?

>> Yes, three different reasons. Sometimes a fraud is started to get some extra money, then it is continued to be the only income, finally the motivation shifts to a desperate attempt to avoid prison. It is my sense (speaking only for myself) that the suppression of the gold price was one piece of a complex program to ruin the Soviet Union financially in the early 1980s. In 1994, with the collapse of the yen carry trade, the "gold carry trade" was a good plug in replacement. As the scale of manipulation and fraud grew (I think that most gold derivatives are fraudulent instruments), the motivation shifted to keeping the world's economy from collapsing. From the tone of your question, I sense that there is a simplier reason. It is my hope that this can be stated so that I can learn from my folly.

<<Can you explain how a surpressed goldprice (1980 ATH $850 back to $300) has ruined the Soviet Union, financially?

>>The Soviet Union is no longer a nation. It broke up into 15 Republics. By the way, I figure the United States will eventually break up into 10 Republics once our empire is shattered. At the time, we convinced the Saudis to pump oil like mad to bring the price of oil down to $10 since it cost the Russians $10 to produce theirs. We started the Star Wars military fraud at the same time, and managed to trick the Soviets into installing rigged pipeline equipment that blew out their pipelines with massive force (the US military thought it was a nuclear explosion until the CIA explained what we had done). These plus many more drained the Soviets of their foreign exchange. I suspect that when the nations of the world try to sell their treasury instruments, it will bring down our nation as well.

<<1994-2000 > Rubin and Summers at work > Stock market irrational exhuberance. 2000-? > How would a rise in goldprice cause a total economic collapse? Explain, please.

>> So many banks have borrowed gold and sold into the marketplace. A rapid price rise means no way to get out of a short squeeze on gold. This would cause a massive increase in US interest rates, and collapse the economy. Remember that 50% of the US economy is the artificial housing boom.

<< Don't you think that there can be only ONE reason for having the POG surpressed for such a long time, after the close of the gold-window? One single reason that causes different effects at different times?

>> The only "single" reason I can think of is to artificially raise the value of the bankrupt US dollar. If you know of another reason, I hope to learn from you.

<< If and when the goldprice gets out of its surpression and starts to rise ... Will Russia flourish ... Will the stock market/bondprices crash ... Will the total economy collapse, because of the POG rise ... or ... will the POG rise, because the economy collapses?

>> I do not have an answer here. I like to think of traveling through such territory as similar to piloting a space ship very close to the sun to use the gravitational boost. A very tiny change in position and speed and you end up in a spot you never thought you would be in. If you know the sequence of events, or even have some insight, I am very interested, for I am totally ignorant on this point.

<< Allow me to add some more questions to 968's list :
- WHY did the whole planet agree on goldprice surpression up until now?

>> Everyone who has bought physical gold since 1980 has taken a different position than those who sold physical gold. I know that it is easy to purchase gold in small quantities now. I know that purchasing large quantities is difficult. I sense that the ability to purchase gold in large quantities (with the right money/resources to pay of course) is a sign that we have reached "free gold", free of price suppression. Let my rephrase this question "why have those who wish to purchase large qunatities of gold but cannot accept the current circumstances?" To this question, I do not have an answer. If you know, please tell us.

<< If in 1980 Russia was ruined by goldprice surpression...who or what benefitted from that surpression + the ruin of Russia?

>> Harvard University obtained a few billion from "helping" Russia. Many others besides Harvard have been involved in the plunder. I do not know all the names. Again, your quesion suggests additional information.

<< Why do Asians continue to accumulate goldmetal while the goldprice remains surpressed for one or many different reasons?

>> If you look at the holdings of central banks, Asian nations do not have enough physical gold. The lack of gold in Japan reflects that Japan is still a slave nation to America. I have heard that there are direct flights from South Africa to China to bring in gold.

My friends and relatives mock me since I always seem to argue that gold is central to every aspect of the economic world. Yet here I seem to be making the opposite argument with you. I claim that many of these circumstances came by accident. I claim that no one can anticipate the results.

I look forward to your reply.

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GoldiloxWR Response#1356549/6/05; 11:10:25

@ White Rose,

Well thought out response!

"The only "single" reason I can think of is to artificially raise the value of the bankrupt US dollar. If you know of another reason, I hope to learn from you."

----Perhaps just corollary to your "reason", is the slow transfer of BD gold to "private" hands in anticipation of Imperial transformations.

"I claim that many of these circumstances came by accident. I claim that no one can anticipate the results."

Though many circumstances may have resulted "by accident", I would suspect that those pushing the strings have "better estimates" than most, by virtue of foreknowledge. It is not necessary to anticipate every result to be one foot ahead of the "changes".

I can imagine suppression participants feeling in their Imperial Hubris that the "collateral damage" is less important than their "targeted result".

Don't know if this adds aything to the discussion, but these thoughts crossed my mind as I read your response.

geBelgian msg#: 135638 #1356559/6/05; 12:16:08

is saved to the harddisk for future reference. The following segment is brilliant in my opinion. I bow with respect...

"It is always the states that create the mess and is also the states that get us out of the mess...regardless of what the sheeple think or do. Let's be sheep who just are a fraction smarter than the group and anticipate the changes...correctly ! Forget about being able to have any impact on the a group of individuals."…

"When we try to expose the states' interventions...they have a good laugh at us and's about time they are getting's about time to change it ! As simple as that."

mikalEnergy and global bite#1356569/6/05; 12:56:05 Oil prices fall, pump prices seen dropping - Associated Press - 09/06
Article has a general view on global energy impact of Katrina short-term, leaving out peak oil and old issues
like supply bottlenecks, limited refining and distribution capacity, need for wells...
It appears drivers and truckers will not see huge declines in fuel prices in spite of hype.
With onset of winter, problems in natural gas and heating oil supplies and prices may dominate news.
Several news reports refer to fears of another "Asian Contagion" due to severe energy costs in the region.

CoBra(too)A new Saint is Borne ...#1356579/6/05; 13:21:43

Why ever tackle the issue - FREE GOLD - is the name of the game.

Whatever that means seems to be the idiomatic egnima of a few very "special people".

To me, as already seen as a free gold agnostic advocate of some diversification in the aftermath of some discussion between A/FOA an new scholar turned up.

Belgian, expanding on the thoughts of Another and in reality preaching a theme, we have been following long before the self appointed gold messias arrived. True, B. has said to have derived at his conclusions by re-reading A/FOA - and that's OK!
It's not OK, that Belgian, with his IMHO limited experience, though great deductions is gathering saint hood status and others, who've proved their value in fighting for status are now ridiculed by gold extremeists.

Thanks Chris P. and GATA for your perseverance ... we'll beat even our dearest huggers!


PS - OvS, Christian or Gott erhalte ... Since you won't be fair anyway - why don't you just say - I've chased the venomous CoBra away - good for you in the bayou ...

GoldiloxStatists#1356589/6/05; 13:59:19


That was my favorite quote from Belgian's post, too. And why shouldn't they laugh? Cheney showed how "impartial" our courts are when he took Scalia out "socially" on a "hunting date" to the chagrin of the "conflict of interest" gnats.

Another case in point, Martha gets prison time for lying during an investigation of a "crime" that mention of which is inadmissible in her own trial. Ken Lay watches his subordinates battle the courts and parties on with the White House gang while he controls billions of ESF-ENRON booty well hidden with the Caribbean banksters. Campaign contributions garner the best rewards, as also evidenced by every President's farewell pardons.

You say you want justice? Just how much do can you afford?

mikalGreenspan warns off #1356599/6/05; 14:18:05

Alan Greenspan Changes Key - 09/01/05
TownCrierSystems prone to abuses often dip to breaking point prior to an improvement turnaround#1356609/6/05; 14:36:09

HEADLINE: Banks can now lend gold loans to local firms

MumbaiSeptember 07, 2005 -- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) today allowed banks to lend gold loans to domestic jewellery manufacturers. Thus far, banks were allowed to lend gold only to jewellery exporters.

In a notification, RBI said gold loans and other non-funded commitments of banks would have to be within the ceiling of 25 per cent of tier-I capital for gold exposures. The ceiling would include gold loans extended to jewellery exporters.

RBI has also asked banks to adhere to the "know-your customer" guidelines and also ensure end-use of gold loans.

The tenor of gold loan cannot exceed 90 days and interest charged to gold borrowers would have to be linked to that of international gold interest rate.

Any mismatch arising out of the gold borrowings and lendings should be within the prudential risk limits approved by the boards of banks nominated to engage in gold lending.

^----(from article at url)----^

To be sure, this is a clear and simple example wherein gold is being put to use "as money". Does this Indian effort at expansion of financial gold lending operations please the "gold is money" crowd?

No reason it should.

However, for the other "gold is property" camp, take comfort that as this anachronistic system is pushed to the brink, it buys you both time and a pricing subsidy by which to acquire more metal for your enjoyment upon the pricing paradigm turnaround.


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Tuesday Market Excerpts

September 5 (from Reuters) -- Gold futures in New York edged slightly higher in quiet trade Tuesday as players trickled back from summer holidays and assessed Hurricane Katrina's effect on the U.S. economy. Final estimated volume stood at a mere 38,000 contracts on a day when traders kept a close eye on the euro.

The European currency strengthened against the dollar on uncertainty over how damaging last week's storm would be on the U.S. economy. Devastation from Hurricane Katrina has stirred talk that the Fed might take a break from raising rates at its Sept. 20 policy meeting.

"Gold's benefiting from the euro's strength post-storm," said Paul McLeod, analyst with Commerzbank Bank in New York.

A weak dollar boosts gold, which largely is priced in dollars worldwide, as it gets cheaper for overseas buyers.

COMEX December gold contracts rose 10 cents to $448.60

968@ Cobra(too)#1356629/6/05; 15:01:53

Goodevening Sir Cobra(too),

Instead of critisizing Belgian, share your thoughts, with your abundand experience with us, please (I said YOUR thoughts, not Reg Howe's, Bill Murphy's, R. Leuschel's', F. Lips, Aden Sisters', or William Howard Taft's, ...).
Please, show us that you can deduct the gold- and Dowprice, and -pricing a lot better based on the geopolitical events around us then our 'self appointed gold messias'.
I would love to hear your insights on this themes from you, and I mean this of the bottom of my heart !
I would like to know WHY the POG has to rise according to you, and WHY it is surpressed with European cooperation ?
WHAT is the difference between in relation between the dollar and gold, and the euro and gold ?
WHAT is the relation between oil and gold and WHY ? Is there (überhaupt) a relation ?
WHO are the receivers of the Central Bank goldsales and WHY ???
WHAT are your thoughts on the Sleeper speech ( ?
WHY does the ECB uses a MTM system, and WHY does the US a fixed POG (for bookkeeping purposes) ? WHY do they use a completely different system ?
WHY so much yadayada on a Sprott report on market manipulation while e.g. Sir Towncrier so often reported market manipulation through open market operations here on this excellent round table ( ????
WHY so much yadayada on a Sprott report market manipulation in a world where economic growth is NOT corrected in government statistics by inflation (isn't that manipulation) ?????????
WHY so much yadayada on a Sprott report on market manipulation a world where the dollar faction functions on cheap oil and the euro faction that works on taxation of oil (isn't that goverment manipulation/political economy) ????
WHY doesn't the Peoples Bank of China announces how they compose the basket currencies that values the yuan ???? Are they afraid of market manipulation by the AngloAmerican fincanial brotherhood ???? Do they want to avoid a second Asian crisis that was inflicted by market manipulation ?????????????
We had the Jamaica Accords, the Plaza Accords, the Louvre Accords,... Wasn't that market manipulation ???????? Wasn't that proof of an AngloAmerican political economy ??????
And now, suddenly, out of the blue, the Sprott report proves that there is market manipulation ??????????

BelgianWhite Rose / Cobra#1356639/6/05; 15:12:16

The one and only reason WHY the goldprice remains suppressed is to keep the $-IMS >FUNCTIONAL<. The whole planet should USE the dollar and that is (consequently) more important than gold. As simple as that.

The USSR has always been looked at as a "prey" to be looted from inside and outside !!! That era is definitely over.

Keeping the goldprice permanently deepfrozen under the radar as to marginalize this universal wealth tangible made it possible for the dollar to build and expand its hegemony. Taking away gold as the universal dollar alternative "was" the perfect and postfactum most succesfull strategy of the $-IMS. Nobody (including the USSR) had any other choice, but the dollar.
That's why all currencies became a dollar derivative.

COBRA : I don't mind it at all if I'm labelled as a A/FOA sholar. But...tell us : If GATA exposes the gold-manipulation/intervention/regulation/management/rigging...does this mean we are having free gold...freely priced gold !?
Is this a paradox or a 100% contradiction ?
What is so terribly enigmatic on calling goldprice fixing = unfree gold !?
One step further : Does GATA or anyone else know what the correct price of an ounce is or should be ? If it is clear now that the state intervenes in the stock the stock market wrongly priced now ? Is this stock market a "free" market...freely priced as per definition of a "market" ? Or is state intervention part of the "market" ?

When the UST-gold is booked at $42/Oz, whilst another goldprice says that the same ounce is worth $440/Oz...does this mean that we are all free to price gold as we each and everyone's convenience ?

How much goldprice intervention do you tolerate as to keep calling gold...the pricing of the metal on world markets,... free ? Or are you simply happy and satisfied with the damand of a ...< FAIR >...goldprice. Mixing up "free" with "fair" ?

Or don't you agree with GATA and others that the goldprice (THE PRICING OF GOLD) is rigged/manipulated/regulated/managed...etc ?

Now, let us clear this thing out now, dearest COBRA ! My questions or statements are far from cryptic, aren't they.
See you in the morning. Goodnight from Euroland, B...not the saint one.

BelgianFREEGOLD#1356649/6/05; 15:51:26

If gold and its pricing are as free as "the markets"...the AA "market economy"...WHY is that this very same AA market economy is demanding the chinese to let their yuan float freely or face protectionist measures/sanctions !?
How can the goldpricing be free when the goldprice is glued to the dollar exchange rate who succeeded in having derivatized all other currencies ? Is the dollar exchange rate the result of the market economy defined by the AA community ? Or is the dollar exchange rate a compromis between the states who agree to use the numeraire and at the same time cooperate in their intervention efforts to keep the USDX crashing under the 80 maginot line...for such a long time already ? Is this USDX maginot bottomline the conondrum result of a free market economy ? Sure, a USDX above 80 is "FAIR" enough for all the derivatized currencies who operate under the $-IMS. What kind of freedom is this ?

How "fair" is $500-$600 today for an ounce of gold ? Answer : Fair enough for all who wish to make another joy- ride with their goldmine papers. What do we need saint freegold for ? Let those goldmetal meisters rot in...

How free (its pricing) is gold when CBs officially sell gold and let it know to the public explicitely by accentuating the events with impressive goldprice declines ($253/Oz) ? Nice free gold market where gold mammouths (CBs) are allowed to stampede and trample minuscule gold-savers-holders.

And still free gold remains an enigma and those who have architected free gold are to be labelled as unexperienced idiots...self proclaimed Messiahs. Common Cobra, tell us what is REALLY...really...bothering you !!! That would be extremely interesting (educative) to know.

Belgian@White Rose#1356659/6/05; 16:08:47

The importance of gold at the center of the global economic happening.
Gold has been pushed (forced) out of the center to to outer circle. Gold's role has been marginalized for the main reason that the $-IMS should be and stay at the center. But it is exactly this important element in the global system(s) that is about to change ! One of this changes is the MTM concept of ECB (euro) gold-reserves and W.Duisenberg's statement about the de-linkage of gold from the euro, the euro from gold and the euro from the state. Wim was saying nothing else that gold is NOT money but viewed by the euro architects. But in the AA mind, wealth = money and money = wealth ! The euro architects don't see it that way.
Easely said but very difficult to assimilate. Because then you have to explain your friends what's the difference between wealth and money. Wealth is a universal tangible that always keeps its original purchasing power. Money is a unit of account that always loses its original purchasing power.
Under the existing regime, gold-wealth and money are "both" losing their original purchasing power. Both are and make us unfree to save and transfer those savings intact through time and space.

CoBra(too)Got Gold? - Hagin asks - got Beef?#1356669/6/05; 16:15:30

@968 - Please be reasonable and ask a simple question at a time ... Like I've asked a friend how many languages he speaks - One at a time was his reasonable answer ...

@Belgian - We have no beef in reality - I may understand your free gold quest more than you may be prepared to give me credit for... Though, in essence we've been debating the final outcome for too many years ... And that's in reality my beef with you.

We may both know the final outcome - don't we all, having the aid of historical precedences ... though, as Mark Twain postulates - history doesn't repeat ... may rhyme - and we know it's bound to happen - we don't know when.

So this is the only disagreement I've had with you so far, as a disciple of choice of A/FOA has also understood the unbelieveable act (at least for me)of official destruction of a certificate of 1.000 shares of SA Goldfields Ltd., where FOA may have tripled his physical gold in between.

So, my dearest friend, Belgian - in the longer run I'm with you and all your great insights - though please tell me what to do tomorrow?

... And in the End give GATA the credibility they have earned by their actions - and don't be snide, as you can scarcely afford it. And I don't want to contemplate the petty fundamentals you're operating from - that'll be too cheap to discuss...

In memory of A/FOA i'm ever forgiving your insistence - fire away my friends - as I may have offended your banner bearer - and for myself closed real discussion - fare well and get your gold at your own necessity... AMEN!

TownCrierFrench Ceres -- SOLD OUT!#1356679/6/05; 17:25:48

Word has come in from Jonathan... All 500 coins in this allotment were snapped up (among others) in less than a day. That should speak to you with regards to both the strength of the physical market and the lowness of the price.

Congrats to all who acted quickly to get in on this special deal. September has only just begun, but it's never too soon for you to reap yourself a bountiful harvest of solid gold.


mikalDerivatives up, up and AWAY!#1356689/6/05; 17:53:54

Thanks for story to Chris Powell:
Fed Eyes Risk in Backed-up Derivatives Back Offices
Dan Wilchins - Reuters - September 6, 2005
NEW YORK - Snippits: "The Federal Reserve Bank of New York is looking into the credit derivatives market, but traders and regulators disagree about whether the market is a risk to the broader financial system or just encountering normal growing pains.
At issue is the processing of trades, an unglamorous area that is widely acknowledged to have become a problem as paperwork backlogs mount at dealers and hedge funds.
Credit derivatives, which investors can use to insure a company's or country's debt against default, have surged in popularity in recent years. But the market has grown so fast that players' trade processing systems have been unable to keep up, which has spurred the Fed and other regulators to meet with 14 banks and brokers on Sept. 15."
[Rest assured they will not find a way to make the "processing of trades" less "unglamorous".]

"Regulators and industry groups are clearly interested in fixing the back office for credit derivatives. In a speech in early May, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan called back-office issues in credit derivatives a "significant problem," while the United Kingdom's financial regulator, the Financial Services Authority, began looking into back office problems in February. The Counterparty Risk Management Group II, a group headed by Goldman
Sachs Chairman and former New York Fed president Gerald Corrigan, said in a report in July that trade processing problems demand "urgent industry-wide efforts.""
[The real urgency will come when everyone realizes TPTB were NOT "clearly interested in fixing the back office for credit derivatives".]

"The amount of outstanding credit protection has grown more than eight-fold over the last three years, to $8.42 trillion at the end of 2004. When any market grows quickly, unexpected problems in trade processing result. The stock market and interest-rate derivatives market have experienced processing problems in previous decades."
[Let's see, there are "stock market" deris and "interest rate" deris, gold deris and "credit protection" deris that've "grown more than eight-fold over the last three years", just when we thought 'weapons of mass financial destruction' and 'bubbles' were antiquated and unkewl words.]

"Traders identified two problem areas in back-office operations for credit derivatives. The first is a lack of signed paperwork for trades."
[So? You never leave a paper trail unless you have to or when you can get the other guy to sign over his fortune.]

The second problem area involves knowing who one's trading
counterparties are."
[Kinky bedfellows or just a harmless costume party?]

melda laurePork rinds, bits, and skinned alive#1356699/6/05; 17:57:39

Beef is not the same as a beef coupon. They can mark the market wherever they like, but just try to take delivery of 50,000 gallons of petrol and see what those marks are really worth.

I even find that the FNM counter is not catching many bids and this despite it's "pricing" at 6.4 times (surely mythical) earnings, and in spite of how the "ten year" bond is marked up. Pricing is after all, merely an average opinion. MASS is an objective fact.


Snip: "What America has succeeded in creating is not an economy impervious to "shocks," but merely one which enables their consequences to be postponed to a later date. Unfortunately, that date may have finally arrived. Do not attempt to ride out the coming financial hurricane. Seek higher ground. "

Brokerages can not clear their trades. Derivatives have "unmatched" trades. This is no longer a casino, it is a con job; and there is no prize gained in waiting for the "final" market dislocation. The cards are all on the table; it is safe to ignore the moronic betting as bluffing will not change the final outcome, we but await the final "call", when a new (more equitable and civilised) game can begin.

Fire, Water, Wind then Earth. Gold will outlast them. Each coin, be it roman solidus or numenorian tinca is a monument to a bygone institution whose contracts have long since defaulted, games played until the island sank, the city sacked, the market closed. But once the sheep have been herded to market, if the sheep dogs still work, it is but to prevent escape. Our choice is either to be shorn, or to be dinner.

Mourn not for the days when the dogs kept the wolves at bay, for freedom lies on the stony heights where neither wolves nor dogs dare leap.

R PowellPritcho, CB(too), + gods (of the marketplace)#1356709/6/05; 18:40:53

Hello Pritcho. Thanks for answering. Basically, I do believe that short term manipulation is probably present in many markets...depending upon your definition of I tried to explain yesterday with the comparison of a really good bartender + a clever thief. There is an awfully thin line between the two. Basically, if a market is either overvalued or undervalued, I believe, over a reasonable time (not long at all), market forces (GREED!!!!) will sell the overvalued and buy the undervalued. Greed is the basis of a reasonably efficient market. Greed is NOT a scarse commodity in this world. Every child is born with all he/she will ever need. Nobody lacks it and it costs nothing to possess. I don't agree with even a small amount of the manipulation theories that abound. I know this an unpopular statement here.

CB2, perhaps FOA, Another and as has been suggested, now Belgian have been somewhat deified. I would hope that none of them sought after such. Just my own reaction here, but I find this genuflecting + groveling + worshipping extremely distasteful. It's kindergarden behavior + demeaning. Again, I'm sure I'll not make any friends with that statement either.

Belgian, I'll agree with you that markets (gold + others) will never be as free (entirely, 100%) as you would like them to be. We've discussed "freegold" before. Politics have existed as long as recorded history and will remain as long as life itself (all animals + insects are political creatures). I believe economics will also survive along with mankind. They have never been separate and never will be. Markets may be even freer than they were at many times in the past...Medieval economics + politics come immediately to mind. Freegold...meaning gold priced in an economy that is totally divorced from politics? Never happen!! Never. Perhaps I'm still missing something but you have stated it as such. Just my opinion, of course, but I believe history supports has never been + never will be.

I do not mean to offend anyone. Just one man's opinion. Take it as such. Where is Aristotle??

NedCoBra(too)#1356719/6/05; 18:42:56

I must admit that I have not followed this latest exchange between you, Belgian, Chris P. and others very closely.

However, I hope you saw my note to you 2 or 3 weeks ago thanking you for your messages and thoughts.

On this forum and others that I follow, there are groups and group leaders that form. This in itself is not a bad thing. I tried for many years to follow A/FOA and the hardline "gold advocate/freegold" concepts but never could. I have noticed another "physical gold holder" group that concurs with the ownership of physical but without the 'diehard', 'goldbug' mentality. I always thought of you in that group. I place the notorious Prector in this group also. It was in his classic "Conquer The Crash", the deflationary epic that he insisted that " the end, gold will win". He is of course correct, is there any doubt?

So whether we have layers of 'gold believers', or groups or sub-groups or lines and definitions or WHATEVER, I believe it is important that we all believe in certain fundamentals concepts, for example the perils of fiat. Whether we lock it up in vaults, or bury it in the ground or for the crazed, sleep with it, who really cares. Does it really matter that much?

So I ask you to not depart on the grounds that you feel alone. You are not. I'm not leaving this forum because I don't understand A/FOA/Belgian all the time. I'm not leaving this forum because my concept of 'freegold' is not in synch with others. And I'm definitely not leaving this forum because somebody awakened to the fact that GATA or Sprott or anyone else is telling us, told us or trying to tell us something that we already know. I've followed John Embry for years and years while he was at RBC long before Sprott. Embry's theories were well known long before he was ever mentioned on this forum.

Sometimes these self-proclaimed geniuses (a general statement) are more harm to themselves than a help. I can speak for myself on that one !!!

Anyway, you are a hero in my book and I am sure others. Please continue to contribute here at USAGOLD....thanks.

GoldiloxNAVIGATING THE NEW ECONOMY:Lesson 1: "Worth its Weight in OIL"#1356729/6/05; 18:47:52


Unlike the 1970s, there are no neighbors to bail out the consumers to allow them to continue expanding consumption. There is no OPEP (Oil Producing and Exporting Planets) to blame.

So, a funny thing happens. Just as some folks had predicted, oil prices sharply reverse trend and start to rise (that was 1999). In few years, the dollar contract has dropped in relative purchasing power to a barrel of oil by a factor of more than 5:1 (from $11 to over $66). Again, from 1971 to 1999, there was a similar multiplication, but that was thirty years and this was six- one fifth the time.

Of course, the $11 figure was a low, not a high, but here's the twist. In the 1970s, did a barrel of oil rise in yen, pounds, yellow brick OZs, and so on? Remember, that was only a single regional shift from exporter to importer.

Mostly what happened in the 1970s is the dollar lost value. To get an Oz of yellow brick in 1979, for instance you would need more than ten times as many dollar contracts as in 1971. THAT was a high for gold and it has dropped dramatically since then. More importantly, to get ANYTHING in the 1970s, you would need more dollar contracts than you would have in the previous year. The domestic oil market predictably led the international dollar market and everything else was predictably following the first follower.

Again, if you price a barrel of oil in international financial instruments, like gold or major currencies besides the dollar, you see that what happened in the 70s was largely only a national crisis. Yes, that national crisis had predictable influence on other countries because the US was a "superpower" and a major trading partner with so many countries. Oil prices in other places were effected by the shortage in the US.

So consider that today, if you price oil in terms of gold, yen, euro, and so on, oil is still rising in purchasing power dramatically. This is not just a national fluctuation- that is, reflecting merely a drop in the dollar- but a very major change in international oil markets.

Lately, oil markets are really experiencing a major shift in supply and demand- according to international prices. And, once again, the dollar contract is losing purchasing power as it is losing prominence. The dollar was still the unchallenged premier currency in the world...until 1999.

But the dollar's recent all-time lows are not about the competition from the Euro, folks. That is just the immediate trigger. It's about oil.

The primary issue is no longer simply that Americans use much more oil than they produce. This shortage is world-wide. Because of the extremism of the American addiction/dependency on oil, the dollar is just doing the worst of any major currency- and of course it had the most "market share" to lose!

So, let's look at the value of the dollar from 2000-2002 in terms of multiple comparisons. In terms of oil, the dollar lost a LOT of value (about an 80% relative loss). In terms of EVERYTHING ELSE, the dollar still didn't do very well, but nearly not as bad as compared to oil.


Remembering the lessons of Another/FOA.

A long treatise, but well-written.

GoldiloxNAVIGATING THE NEW ECONOMY:Lesson 1: "Worth its Weight in OIL"#1356739/6/05; 18:47:53


Unlike the 1970s, there are no neighbors to bail out the consumers to allow them to continue expanding consumption. There is no OPEP (Oil Producing and Exporting Planets) to blame.

So, a funny thing happens. Just as some folks had predicted, oil prices sharply reverse trend and start to rise (that was 1999). In few years, the dollar contract has dropped in relative purchasing power to a barrel of oil by a factor of more than 5:1 (from $11 to over $66). Again, from 1971 to 1999, there was a similar multiplication, but that was thirty years and this was six- one fifth the time.

Of course, the $11 figure was a low, not a high, but here's the twist. In the 1970s, did a barrel of oil rise in yen, pounds, yellow brick OZs, and so on? Remember, that was only a single regional shift from exporter to importer.

Mostly what happened in the 1970s is the dollar lost value. To get an Oz of yellow brick in 1979, for instance you would need more than ten times as many dollar contracts as in 1971. THAT was a high for gold and it has dropped dramatically since then. More importantly, to get ANYTHING in the 1970s, you would need more dollar contracts than you would have in the previous year. The domestic oil market predictably led the international dollar market and everything else was predictably following the first follower.

Again, if you price a barrel of oil in international financial instruments, like gold or major currencies besides the dollar, you see that what happened in the 70s was largely only a national crisis. Yes, that national crisis had predictable influence on other countries because the US was a "superpower" and a major trading partner with so many countries. Oil prices in other places were effected by the shortage in the US.

So consider that today, if you price oil in terms of gold, yen, euro, and so on, oil is still rising in purchasing power dramatically. This is not just a national fluctuation- that is, reflecting merely a drop in the dollar- but a very major change in international oil markets.

Lately, oil markets are really experiencing a major shift in supply and demand- according to international prices. And, once again, the dollar contract is losing purchasing power as it is losing prominence. The dollar was still the unchallenged premier currency in the world...until 1999.

But the dollar's recent all-time lows are not about the competition from the Euro, folks. That is just the immediate trigger. It's about oil.

The primary issue is no longer simply that Americans use much more oil than they produce. This shortage is world-wide. Because of the extremism of the American addiction/dependency on oil, the dollar is just doing the worst of any major currency- and of course it had the most "market share" to lose!

So, let's look at the value of the dollar from 2000-2002 in terms of multiple comparisons. In terms of oil, the dollar lost a LOT of value (about an 80% relative loss). In terms of EVERYTHING ELSE, the dollar still didn't do very well, but nearly not as bad as compared to oil.


Remembering the lessons of Another/FOA.

A long treatise, but well-written.

spikedogEarly birds and world reserve musings#1356749/6/05; 18:50:15

TC's revelation of the selling out of the September buyers group is truly stellar news.
It appears that even if Ari is no longer with us, his "Gold, get you some" mantra is as strong
as ever. I'll count myself among the lucky ones. Thanks, Jonathan.

Re: Gold market manipulation. Some questions and points of consideration:

1)Has there EVER been a time in history when the commoners (I include only myself here) knew
what TPTB were up to?

2)If the dollar is the world's reserve currency, then every currency with dollars as reserve
are derivatives of the dollar (as pointed out by many luminaries here)

3)Removal of the dollar as world reserve currency will be difficult if done carefully and disastrous
if done quickly or not managed at all.

4)Telling everyone what is going on will create a (bigger) lack of confidence in the dollar.

5)Leading to a "stampede for the exits" by the commoners.

6)Leading to a loss of ability to manage the transition.

7)Leading to worldwide financial "higgledy-piggledy".

8)Are not TPTB doing us a HUGE favor keeping gold cheap and easing the transition?

9)A somewhat clumsy example: You have two ways of crossing a violently coursing river:
swimming or walking across a bridge. The catch is, the bridge is not yet finished. If you
swim, you could get smashed on the rocks, drown, or get carried far, far downstream
(unpredictable results). If you wait for the bridge to be finished, you can cross safe and dry.

I know this is kid's play for most of the posters here, but this neophyte is just trying
to muddle along. Any criticism or input on points I have missed are welcome.


OvSCoBra(twoo), re: 9-6-05 message #135657#1356759/6/05; 19:48:50

Back at the round-table.
Not fair? Gott im Himmel.
Alright. Chess; Back-Gam-
mon; Go; or long swords.
The choice is yours. OvS

CamelFinal straw#1356769/6/05; 20:05:51

Just one small point.

Up until Katrina the fall in the US dollar has been carefully managed and orchestrated by the Fed on behalf of the U.S Association of Manufacturers and is ,or at least was, exactly where the Fed wants it. A couple of years ago there was some very widely publicized lobbying by the Association of Manufacturers for a weaker dollar so as to increase the competitiveness of US goods abroad.

They probably over-shot the mark at first , and the dollar dropped to the low 80"s for awhile, however the Fed policy of increasing interest rates stabilized the dollar in the high 80's where it has remained for quite some time.

As recently as last month the US was pushing hard for an increase in the value of the Chinese currency, which would in turn lower the value of the dollar, however this again theoretically could have been mitigated and controlled by gradually increasing interest rates

Increasing rates would also have slowed the increase in housing prices which probably has been another Fed objective.

All this has changed however with the arrival of Katrina , the once in a lifetime unplanned ,exogenous event that has turned everything upside down. Interest rates increases will probably be halted so as to keep the economy from being dragged under by the storm. This in turn will weaken the dollar.In addition relief costs are now estimated between 50 and 150 billion , an off budget expense further increasing the federal deficit, and weakening the dollar.

Will this be the last straw finally bringing down the US economy. Lets hope not, but it may well be the case.

In my opinion gold is probably a fairly minor player in all of this. The real action is with the dollar. Is gold being manipulated? Probably so, but again it is more of an after- thought to block any escape from the dollar.If the Fed loses control of the dollar, and it breaks 80, then gold will be set free

osa104cFALL free fall#1356779/6/05; 21:05:52

leaves and twigs...old white guys in wigs....all falls to NEW lows as the sun strolls across the golden sky......Not just Kitrina....but the muddy depths of debt and murk.....only thing that "WE" who know....all that glitters is the GOLDEN show.................AMF
Chris PowellWhy shouldn't the secret knowledge of the universe be shared?#1356789/6/05; 23:23:25

Thanks to all for some wonderful postings today, and thus once again to our hosts, MK and Town Crier, for this superior forum -- a second home to me, or, really, I suppose, a second college. (It would be nice if it started offering degrees; I could use one from someplace.)

968 has posed some questions directly to me and I will try to answer them separately but later so that I might try to resolve first my recent contentiousness with Belgian.

I will agree with OvS that Belgian's posts today were perhaps his best yet, and with Belgian himself that they were perhaps his least cryptic yet.

Belgian writes: "The one and only reason WHY the gold price remains suppressed is to keep the $-IMS FUNCTIONAL. The whole planet should USE the dollar and that is (consequently) more important than gold. As simple as that. ... Keeping the gold price permanently deep-frozen under the radar as to marginalize this universal wealth tangible made it possible for the dollar to build and expand its hegemony. Taking away gold as the universal dollar alternative was the perfect and most successful strategy of the $-IMS. Nobody (including the USSR) had any other choice but the dollar. That's why all currencies became a dollar derivative."

That is essentially also GATA's view of it, and it is so obvious now that some of us in GATA are a little embarrassed that it took us a few years to begin to see it, a few years to get past the maneuverings of the bullion banks, to realize that they were only the agents of the central banks. But we didn't want to jump to conclusions; we wanted some evidence as well as logic -- and, perhaps, as Americans we didn't think our government was that bad.

It is clear now that my disagreement with Belgian is largely a matter of whether what has been done is good and whether anything should be done about it.

Belgian writes: "Managed markets brought us the level of prosperity that we enjoy today. If we wish to consolidate this achievement, the very nature of the interventions needs another basis: a modern golden one!"

I would not dispute that markets need managing; capitalism's natural tendency is toward monopoly. Didn't even Adam Smith write something to the effect that whenever any two businessmen converse, odds are that they are trying to rig a market? (The similar comment I remember better is from another Briton, George Bernard Shaw: "Every profession is a conspiracy against the laity.") And of course I'm part of an anti-trust association, anti-trust law being necessary to guard against monopoly and combinations in restraint of trade.

The question is the DEGREE and TRANSPARENCY of market management. Belgian seems to be approving a vast degree of management with no transparency -- a degree of management that amounts to imperialism, the United States' expropriation of the rest of the world, the building of the prosperity of the United States and to some extent that of Western Europe on the exploitation of the rest of the world.

Of course "management" of the currency markets is a very old practice; Nazi Germany expropriated the countries it occupied not so much by any looting conducted by its armies as by dictating exchange rates, by forbidding free markets in exchange rates for the mark. The United States now follows this practice, and even the most patriotic Americans who discover this may react with shock and shame and be moved to try to do something about it. Yes, "my country right or wrong" -- when right, to be kept right, and when wrong, to be set right.

As a European Belgian may be even more familiar with the history of exchange rate rigging but I sense that history has produced in him the cynical and jaded indifference Americans often find typical of Europe. Really, what if "the level of prosperity we enjoy today" is a matter of a South African miner's never getting paid decently or an ordinary mining industry investor's never understanding that governments are conspiring to ensure that he loses his investment? What of honest dealing between nations and individuals? Must that be a casualty of the political order Belgian seems to be exalting or at least suggesting should be left alone and simply watched?

The other day I asked: What is to be done? Belgian seems to be saying: Nothing. He writes: "There is absolutely nothing that we can do but observe, understand, and interpret the evolution correctly."

I will disagree and claim that the very fiber of the universe, though unseen, is on my side, not his. It is a principle of physics -- Werner Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle. In its narrow construction it holds that the location or velocity of an atomic particle can be measured but, somehow, never both at the same time. By extension this means that the very act of observation alters what is being observed. It is as true in human affairs as it is in physics. As the journalist Richard Reeves wrote: "Everybody is better when he is being watched." Or as another journalist, H.L. Mencken, put it sardonically: "Conscience is the inner voice that warns us someone may be looking."

That is, the gold price suppression scheme, the stock market support scheme, and all the currency market rigging schemes would not survive five minutes of public understanding or even one minute of understanding by the people who run what suppose themselves to be the financial markets. Amid any sort of understanding, these schemes would fail not because people would stop wanting governments to keep rigging markets in their favor -- Belgian's cynicism is only too realistic in this respect -- but because people would realize that most values now are (as Belgian also notes) grotesque illusions and many -- enough -- would respond accordingly. Some would respond out of moral principle, and some would respond out of self-interest -- the interest in no longer being slaves. And without docile slaves, ready victims of exploitation, the system of illusion will crumble.

Belgian writes, perhaps most cynically: "When we try to expose the states' interventions, they have a good laugh at us and think, 'It's about time they are getting it; it's about time to change it!' As simple as that."

From one rig to another? From one set of slaves to another?

I will agree with Belgian and others here that gold is the secret knowledge of the universe. But what is the justification in making a cult of that knowledge and keeping it a secret? Why shouldn't that knowledge be the birthright of mankind?

And if that knowledge is a cult, how are we who have that knowledge any different than the governments that make and carry out policy secretly to rob the world, any different than the financial houses that provide cover for the governments and are rewarded with a share of the spoils, allowed to trade on their secret knowledge of government policy?

Why is this forum open to all via the Internet rather than just another secret society at Yale, Harvard, or Stanford? Do we mean to stand for anything here? Do we who have stumbled upon this knowledge owe the world nothing? Is this knowledge just for our own benefit?

Like it or not, it's not going to be.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Chris PowellWhy shouldn't the secret knowledge of the universe be shared?#1356799/7/05; 00:19:00

Thanks to all for some wonderful postings yesterday, and thus once again to our hosts, MK and Town Crier, for this superior forum -- a second home to me, or, really, I suppose, a second college. (It would be nice if it started offering degrees; I could use one from someplace.)

968 has posed some questions directly to me and I will try to answer them separately but later so that I might try to resolve first my recent contentiousness with Belgian.

I will agree with OvS that Belgian's posts yesterday were perhaps his best yet, and with Belgian himself that they were perhaps his least cryptic yet.

Belgian writes: "The one and only reason WHY the gold price remains suppressed is to keep the $-IMS FUNCTIONAL. The whole planet should USE the dollar and that is (consequently) more important than gold. As simple as that. ... Keeping the gold price permanently deep-frozen under the radar as to marginalize this universal wealth tangible made it possible for the dollar to build and expand its hegemony. Taking away gold as the universal dollar alternative was the perfect and most successful strategy of the $-IMS. Nobody (including the USSR) had any other choice but the dollar. That's why all currencies became a dollar derivative."

That is essentially also GATA's view of it, and it is so obvious now that some of us in GATA are a little embarrassed that it took us a few years to begin to see it, a few years to get past the maneuverings of the bullion banks, to realize that they were only the agents of the central banks. But we didn't want to jump to conclusions; we wanted some evidence as well as logic -- and, perhaps, as Americans we didn't think our government was that bad.

It is clear now that my disagreement with Belgian is largely a matter of whether what has been done is good and whether anything should be done about it.

Belgian writes: "Managed markets brought us the level of prosperity that we enjoy today. If we wish to consolidate this achievement, the very nature of the interventions needs another basis: a modern golden one!"

I would not dispute that markets need managing; capitalism's natural tendency is toward monopoly. Didn't even Adam Smith write something to the effect that whenever any two businessmen converse, odds are that they are trying to rig a market? (The similar comment I remember better is from another Briton, George Bernard Shaw: "Every profession is a conspiracy against the laity.") And of course I'm part of an anti-trust association, anti-trust law being necessary to guard against monopoly and combinations in restraint of trade.

The question is the DEGREE and TRANSPARENCY of market management. Belgian seems to be approving a vast degree of management with no transparency -- a degree of management that amounts to imperialism, the United States' expropriation of the rest of the world, the building of the prosperity of the United States and to some extent that of Western Europe on the exploitation of the rest of the world.

Of course "management" of the currency markets is a very old practice; Nazi Germany expropriated the countries it occupied not so much by any looting conducted by its armies as by dictating exchange rates, by forbidding free markets in exchange rates for the mark. The United States now follows this practice, and even the most patriotic Americans who discover this may react with shock and shame and be moved to try to do something about it. Yes, "my country right or wrong" -- when right, to be kept right, and when wrong, to be set right.

As a European Belgian may be even more familiar with the history of exchange rate rigging but I sense that history has produced in him the cynical and jaded indifference Americans often find typical of Europe. Really, what if "the level of prosperity we enjoy today" is a matter of a South African miner's never getting paid decently or an ordinary mining industry investor's never understanding that governments are conspiring to ensure that he loses his investment? What of honest dealing between nations and individuals? Must that be a casualty of the political order Belgian seems to be exalting or at least suggesting should be left alone and simply watched?

The other day I asked: What is to be done? Belgian seems to be saying: Nothing. He writes: "There is absolutely nothing that we can do but observe, understand, and interpret the evolution correctly."

I will disagree and claim that the very fiber of the universe, though unseen, is on my side, not his. It is a principle of physics -- Werner Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle. In its narrow construction it holds that the location or velocity of an atomic particle can be measured but, somehow, never both at the same time. By extension this means that the very act of observation alters whatever is being observed. It is as true in human affairs as it is in physics. As the journalist Richard Reeves wrote: "Everybody is better when he is being watched." Or as another journalist, H.L. Mencken, put it sardonically: "Conscience is the inner voice that warns us someone may be looking."

That is, the gold price suppression scheme, the stock market support scheme, and all the currency market rigging schemes would not survive five minutes of public understanding or even one minute of understanding by the people who run what suppose themselves to be the financial markets.

Amid any sort of understanding, these schemes would fail not because people would stop wanting governments to keep rigging markets in their favor -- Belgian's cynicism is only too realistic in this respect -- but because people would realize that most values now are (as Belgian also notes) grotesque illusions and many -- enough -- would respond accordingly. Some would respond out of moral principle, and some would respond out of self-interest -- their interest in no longer being slaves. And without docile slaves, ready victims of exploitation, the system of illusion will crumble.

Belgian writes, perhaps most cynically: "When we try to expose the states' interventions, they have a good laugh at us and think, 'It's about time they are getting it; it's about time to change it!' As simple as that."

From one rig to another? From one set of slaves to another?

I will agree with Belgian and others here that gold is the secret knowledge of the universe. But what is the justification in making a cult of that knowledge and keeping it a secret? Why shouldn't that knowledge be the birthright of mankind?

And if that knowledge is a cult, how are we who have that knowledge any different than the governments that make and carry out policy secretly to rob the world, or any different than the financial houses that provide cover for the governments and are rewarded with a share of the spoils, allowed to trade on their secret knowledge of government policy?

Indeed, why is this forum open to all via the Internet rather than just another secret society at Yale, Harvard, or Stanford? Do we mean to stand for anything here? Do we who have stumbled upon this knowledge owe the world nothing? Is this knowledge just for our own benefit?

Like it or not, it's not going to be.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

BelgianGood morning#1356809/7/05; 01:04:46

Find it funny that the experienced gold-observers on this forum don't wish to answer the many relevant gold questions.

Yes, COBRA...where is the beef ? First, I have been thinking what exactly you mean by "beef". Perhaps you mean the goldprice explosion, suggested by A/FOA ? Correct me if I guessed it wrong.
The "beef" (free priced gold) is already in the kitchen. And I suspect it is already being fried in oil that is heating up (rising prices).
If the beef (re-valued gold) would already have been served, dearest COBRA,...any gold-debate would be too late.

Once you and I and all on this particular forum "see" highly priced gold, we stop debating, analysing, etc...and simply send our pictures with huge smiles.

Since we both do already have our goldmetal wealth in possession...I simply wish to dialoque further about the question WHY it takes apparently so long before the beef comes out of the kitchen and is being served. You seem to be more impatient and/or hungry, right ? That's because you still have (some)(serious) doubts about the beef (re-valuation of gold).
I suppose that this goes for the cousins Powell (and many others) as well.

But, tell us...have you (anyone else) been reading (re-reading) Randy's goldenchalkboard link where you find something fundamentally important about the cooks of the beef ? An argument...a reason why it takes time for having your beef : Wim Duisenberg : THE EURO IS THE FIRST CURRENCY THAT HAS NOT ONLY SEVERED ITS LINK TO GOLD...BUT ALSO ITS LINK TO THE NATION-STATE !
It was 968 who reminded us about this ('02) statement. That's only 3 years ago Cobra. Freegold is not a take-away type of meal and it takes time and skills to have it ready.
And BTW, why don't you answer at least one (relevant) 968 question with your experience. Think many forumers would appreciate it.
Anyway,...The Duisenberg statement is revolutionarry and yet nobody produces any reaction on it. Why...because they want to see and consume the beef before attaching any importance to the preparation of the beef. As if one first wants to see a stock being overpriced first ...and only then start to buy it. Hurrahhhh, I've bought a "winner"...look at my beef !

Chris : May I remind you, once again, that Bullion is "free" of taxes and that future freegold will have to render some of its freedom back to its architects under the form of taxes. Don't you see what is going on here ? Untaxed bullion is a (small) piece of beef...isn't it !? How come that this fact is so UN-relevant to you (and many others)? Is this argument a deification of gold...or rather another indication that something is up (fundamental change) with gold's future ? Is this a petty element and totally insignificant to base any projection of gold's future on ? How "unique" is tax-free bullion !!!
Are the profits of goldmine papers tax-free ?

Aristotle : Please let us know why you remain silent. Thanks.

BelgianAt Chris Powell - GATA#1356819/7/05; 02:08:46

Wawwwwwww ! May I say a bigggggg -BRAVO- , Sir ! Now, w're on the road. Let's go...

Recognize an all embracing force, when you see (encounter-experience) one. The (aging) system of political economy/finance/monetary has definitely its merits. It took me a very long time to accept this balanced final (conclusive) fact. But with age, one doesn't wish to stay a rebel "without" a cause. I still do see the rotting elements in the system that brought us to the present prosperity. It is not a matter of approval or disapproval.
Simply the realities as they are.

Indeed Sir, the Euroland architects knew already long ago, what the weaknesses are in the system. They very well knew that they (weaknesses) were going to start rotting one day and affect the rest of the system. This consciousness is "living" right now here in Euroland and w're working on this !!! Read Duisenberg...also between the lines.

Yes indeed, I stopped pissing in holy houses and certainly pissing against the wind. Indeed, this forum is unique in the sense that we openly can expose the whole picture in all its greatness in a balanced way. The so called holy houses (of power) know VERY well what exactly the rot (in the system) is ! And it are not only the South Afrikan miners that suffer...many more on this planet have to suffer to keep our Western prosperity under the $-IMS alive and kicking. The holy houses or TPTB or the masters of the universe (as you call them) know about the rising force/power of those that are indeed sweating. Look and analyse the geo-political evolutions (changes in coalitions)that are taking place. And all this is undoubtly connected directly or very indirectly to gold >>> IMF's recent gold affairs !

There is NO conspiracy going on...there are fundamental changes happening that will result in a shift in the balance of way or the other ! The power houses wish to go through this transition as shockfree as to keep the bulk of our prosperity more or less intact. In their own interest also, of course. The classic win-win theory.

The whole gold-affair is therefore also in a giant transition. And it is exactly here that I would like to see you (GATA) evolve.

Let's translate all those boring ECB/FED/BIS/IMF speeches into an understandable language for western interested listeners. Those speeches are (cryptically) showing that things are changing. Main "thing" is the political will. Let us explain what political will signifies and what it has to do with gold. We waste much too much time pissing all together against the wind whilst we miss how the transition is evolving. Alan has to do what the consolidation of our western prosperity demands. Don't expect him to let all this crash in its entirity because of the rotting pieces in the whole system. Don't let him throw the (prosperous) child away with the stinking bathwater.

Exposing the decades old goldprice management is smashing into an open door ! Now it is all about the "change" of this old and tired $-gold regime. And a regime-change is never an easy walk. Let's inform our fellow citizens about the changes that are brewing and taking place on a realistic basis. Let's argument "correctly" WHY goldmetal in possession is a good idea. Start with making a clear cut difference between all paper gold and the metal.

Look at the POG picture (see link) : I call this pattern > the frozen egg (no beef-smile snake). WHAT DOES THIS FROZEN EGG PATTERN MEAN ? WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO SUCH AN EGG AND WHY !
Place this 25 years of frozen egg pattern in its context...the masters' of the universe actions.

Have to go now...

Caradoc2 cents worth#1356829/7/05; 03:25:53

Great posts from everyone over the last 48 hours!!

Chris Powell's reference to this forum as a second home or a second college is accurate for several reasons. We've all learned from personal experience that an intra-family squabble can get nasty, partly because family members know each other well enough to be able to push the right buttons. Equally, any disagreement in a community of scholars (by definition, truth seekers and secondarily defenders of whatever truth they've become convinced of) automatically starts off just short of the level where either side is ready to declare the other side anathema: an enemy of the truth and at best an unwitting dupe of the forces of evil.

Even though thoughts of a dispute between Friar Tuck/ Little John, Galahad/ Gawain, or J.R.R. Tolkien/ C.S. Lewis kept coming to mind while reading recent posts, my primary reaction was to picture a huge family coming together at their ancestral home -- call it the Ponderosa -- for a holiday dinner. Picture a table about twelve feet wide and forty feet long. Patriarch Ben Cartwright died a couple of years ago so Adam, Hoss, and Little Joe share the head of the table; the third generation are at the middle; and Ben's great grandchildren fill the rest of the table and overflow into the kitchen with Hop Sing. Any dispute at the head of the table is deucedly awkward for those sitting near the middle, and any approach toward concensus is welcome since we all know that neither Hoss nor Little Joe can decide to ride off into the sunset and cease being a Cartwright.

The best thing about a Table Round is that there is no head of the Table. From the 360 degrees of a circle, all thoughts and opinions (and even declarations of truth!) are thrown onto the center of the Table for the scrutiny of all. The virtue of this approach is most apparent in Spikedog's post 135674 below. Here, a self-described neophyte puts forward eight items leading toward the analogy of a river crossing; i.e., trying to cross it the hard way with no guarantee of whether you'll make it to the other side or where you'll end up versus temporizing while you wait for the bridge to be finished. Spikedog labels his bridge analogy as "kid's play," but the analogy is perfect. It allows various posts of the last 48 hours (even if originally put forward as disagreement) to be sorted into various complementary categories/subcategories:
* There's a bridge being built! (How is it being built? Why is it being built?
* Who are the bridge builders? (Who was the architect? The chief engineer? The construction company?)
* What's the construction schedule? (How long has this temporizing/ bridge building been going on? When will the bridge be finished?)
* Tell me more about this bridge. (What's on the other side? Is it a toll bridge? Are there some stepping stones in the river that allow the nimble to cross without using the bridge?)
* Mechanics of bridge crossing. (Do we march across with Gandalf leading the way? Or is it better to merge with the sheep as they're herded across? Will the sheep be frisked for contraband as they cross over?)

Could be that SD's bridge analogy was what allowed Chris Powell to arrive at the his posotion that the Powell/Belgian contratemp boils down to assessing whether manipulation (past and present) was/is a good thing and whether anything should be done about it.

My two cents (lifted from Plato if I remember correctly) is that in a rainstorm the best anybody can hope to do is to keep his own head dry. Whether the "greater good" has been/ is being served by holding down the dollar price of gold doesn't matter to any of us as individuals. And each of us is "doing something about it" on a monthly, weekly, and daily basis by either adding to our holding of physical gold or failing to do so.

Regards to all,


BelgianChina and Euroland#1356839/7/05; 04:07:10

In all objectivity we can easily conclude that the relationships between China and Euroland are certainly moving and moving into a rise in cooperation. Hope I don't have to list the facts as evidence.

Is it a coincidence that the China state, a central planning regime, is encouraging its citizens and CB to accumulate goldmetal ? It isn't...and certainly not in the context of their relationship with growing Euroland ...that also made a Big change in its gold views >>> MTM of its (ECB) goldreserves.

This stands in sharp contrast with the collusion of the FED and its so called bullion banks...rather banks managing bullionprices(pricing).

Most probably the major oilreserve-owners are already saturated with goldmetal whilst the Asian global manufacturing machine has not yet enough of the precious in its official and private vaults (?). Since no IMF gold could be mobilized, someone else (from Euroland) has to ship some of its excess goldmetal to the east. Not for having the chinese buy more Airbuses but for more cooperation on the ongoing changes ...more independance from the $-IMS.
This in sharp contrast to what happened to the South Koreans who were forced to throw their gold away in exchange for more support from the $-IMS' main operator (US).

Wether we agree with the China and/or EU state or not...fact is that both states have economies that are relatively in good shape (trade surplusses) and both have "gold-action" !!! This may not look like "beef" ...but they are unmistakenly both (together) cooking something golden in the kitchen ! A new modern plate...nouvelle cuisine doré.

The present Trans Atlantic freeze will rapidly unfreeze once this nouvelle cuisine (the beef-steak) is on its feet and...the $-IMS goes xeroxing ! Too cryptic ? No problem...When the US starts to recognize the reserve functionality of the goldeuro.

Belgian@Caradoc#1356849/7/05; 04:26:06

Hey the Pondorosa farm, we all would have a great...GREAT time...including the Asians ! Am 100% convinced of this. I do remember viewing Bonanza as a kid and as a matter of fact, Bel-TV is showing it again ! That's how Eurolanders wish they could imagine AMERIKA again ! But very, VERY isn't so anymore!
And this saddens all Eurolanders who know what is happening. Not for cheap nostalgic reasons but for the dangers that this detoriation might have in petto. The loss and impossible cooperation of a friendly ally, AMERIKA.

And now the less romantic (not cryptic) side of the coin. That PNAC doesn't want to go out of the way and we hope of the bottom of our hart that no historic atrocities will be repeated in one way or another. Read holocaust !

I prefer the fun we could all enjoy at the Pondorosa.

Caradoc@Belgian#1356859/7/05; 05:27:12

I appreciate your thoughts. My assessment is that 80-some percent of the US population still share the values of the Ponderosa and of young troops like Sgt York, who went to Europe and did what needed to be done. The good news is that this 80% overlaps with 99% of those who are in a position to survive more than a week without the infrastructure continuing to operate on a daily basis. The bad news is that some 70 or more of that 80% still think their government is the legitimate heir to the one that formed after breaking off from King George.

For insight into why that's no longer the case, read "Unintended Consequences" by John Ross.



OvSChris Powell wants to take away our spice of life. msg#: 135678#1356869/7/05; 07:02:04

Exclusivity. Air is free and
no-one thinks twice about it.
Ration it and sell it by the
bag and it becomes more pres-
cious than gold.
If everyone knows certain
things what's the point talk-
ing about it?
If all the gold would be devi-
ded among all the inhabitants
of this planet (fractional oz)
no-one would much appreciate it
until someone would start hordg
This world revolves around a
hirarchy of exclusivity. You
reach the pinnacle and you are
at the lower end of a totem pole
of a mystical hirarchy.

And why do you, for Christ's sake,
want a degree? So you can pull the wool over the non-degreed ones?See

Taking away the spice is death.OvS

TopazThose with eyes ...#1356879/7/05; 08:12:39

...just saw a 'profound" indication of PhysicalGoldPower in the Market.
A DX up - Gold up deflationary event just came a step closer.

GeneDollar#1356889/7/05; 08:58:46

I'm not the brightest lamp on the street, so can someone explain to me why the dollar is up the last two days?
Caradoc- I also recommend "Unintended Consequences".
OvS- What is your message? It wasn't very clear to me.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.The fruits of your labor: Consolidate seasonal harvests into enduring value!#1356899/7/05; 10:42:56

Swiss gold francs
Harvest Time
You've toiled diligently and intelligently all season long
and now it's harvest time for your summer crop.

Every good farmer knows the task is not complete until the
fruits of his labor are fully picked and stored ahead of the winter.

Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

USAGOLD - Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

TownCrierGene, your dollar up question#1356919/7/05; 10:56:37

Explanation may be something as simple as the monetary authorities attempting to preserve vital confidence for the greenback in the wake of hurricane Katrina.

As alluded to in Belgian's excellent morning post on interventions yesterday (handing over to us a million-dollar political reality check), the dollar rising at this moment may be based on nothing fundamental by the "free" market players, per se, but instead may more precisely be based on the fundamentals of system management (intervention) as might be deemed necessary by various monetary authorities at this particular time.

Or not, of course.


KnallgoldPhysical decoupling from paper(oil)#1356929/7/05; 11:14:29

Oil has dropped-but the gasoline on the station has risen again.Someone seems not to believe the spin about "oil to drop further","strategic reserves calming markets","the oilequipment coming onstream again soon in NO"-hell I heard they are even missing some platforms!

Have witnessed an "inflation rant" the other day by a person (she's French).It might be counterproductive from now on to say "core inflation is benign".Driving to work is not only a luxury for most.

GeneDollar#1356939/7/05; 11:55:01

Towncrier, thanks for the response. With all the world poised to reduce the percentage of dollars in their reserves because of our fiscal & monetary policies, and now with Katrina on top of that,I cannot fathom which monetary authorities would prop up the dollar. Could it be the Fed buying dollar futures to try to prevent a precipitous drop. If so, that will only make it worse when it comes.Like I said, I'm not a scholar in economics but things are looking perilous to me at this point. Looks like the Fed & the Administration,and the Congress all think printing more money will solve everything.
TownCrierHEADLINE: Nothing seems to stop gold demand growth#1356949/7/05; 12:02:00

LONDON ( --The World Gold Council has released its second-quarter (and therefore also the first-half) figures for gold demand. The numbers, independently compiled for WGC by GFMS Ltd., show a 21% increase in tonnage terms and a 29% increase in dollar terms over the first half of 2004.

And demand was strong enough to absorb a 14% increase in total supply easily despite a 9% increase in the gold price to a pm fixing average of $417.39; the picture is of a vibrant market indeed.

The second quarter of 2005 was the sixth consecutive quarter of positive year-on-year growth and, probably more significantly, the third consecutive quarter of double digit growth.

The outlook suggests that while many factors supporting the upward demand trend remain in place, the growth in the first half of this year has been so strong that it is possible that the pace will be moderated in the second half. What is particularly encouraging, though, is that reports from the regions where consumers are normally deterred by price volatility [Indian sub-Continent, Middle and Far East] have not yet been greatly deterred by the rise in price that started in late July.

In terms of growth rates, investment is the star of the show, with tonnage up by 20% in the second quarter and by 66% for the first half as a whole. At the retail level, net investment was up by 36% in tonnage terms and 45% in dollar terms. Most retail investment categories showed strong growth, with double-digit advances for bar hoarding and the purchases of medal and individual coins. This was driven particularly by India, with support from Turkey and Vietnam.

^----(from url)----^

Think largely. Be worldly. Choose gold.


TownCrierGene, "...cannot fathom which monetary authorities would prop up the dollar. Could it be the Fed...?"#1356959/7/05; 12:12:30

I beg you to forgive the schlocky style of this presentation, as it was originally a post and was only slightly refined by edits for the purpose of this page, but nonetheless, please do have a look at the comments (see URL) to help you gain a small sense that there are quitle possibly more players than just the Fed who may indeed be interested in seeing the dollar stay on its feet for just a bit longer.

A transitionary means to an architected end.


otish mountainHelicopter money of a different form #1356969/7/05; 12:53:48

Although its probably the best way to deal with these misplaced victims and give some sense of dignity, it does show though in a small way the vast amount of money this storm Katrina is going to consume.
GoldiloxFEMA debit cards#1356979/7/05; 13:41:10

@ Otish Mountain,

Your posted article is contradicted by CNN on-the-scene who has just reported that today's FEMA lines are for registration ONLY, and assistance cards themselves will not be distributed for at least a week or more - electronic subsistence supplies, if you can wait another week?

This will probably garner FEMA even more criticism for "untimely action".

There is a lot of concern about looting and other criminal activity, but more level-headed people are reminding us that those who have been under water and without food and drinking water for over a week are responding out of desperation and shouldn't be classified in the same fell swoop as those brazenly firing on emergency workers. After all, mental health is being severely tested as well.

However, FEMA was quite timely in beginning construction of their "internment camps" a year ago. Looks like they "had a plan" for this part of the operations.

On top of this, the NO mayor has declared martial law, evicting all citizens, ensuring that non-official personnel will NOT be present for the final body count or victim identification - a lot like Charley in the poor sections of Western FL.

I was surfing channels today and was truly aghast at the number of channels that consider this "emergency" too low a priority for more than a couple of sound bites. I saw more content on Oprah yesterday than all the "news channel talking heads" put together. They didn't dare let her into the Superdome, as the NO Police Chief's previous effort at entrance drew fire from the "mob controlled fortress". New Orleans most closely resembles the Kurt Russell Movie "Escape from New York".

There is also deathly silence about their plans to fortify other municipal infrastructures affected by relief influx. Houston is reeling from the burden already.

Truly sad. Should any other large population area, like CA, who is now experiencing near 1000 EQ events per week (up again from the 300 average), experience any sort of catastrophe on top of the mess in the south, "faith in government" may experience a rapid collapse in tandem with the US$.

With the hurricane season only half past, is it time to bring the "soldiers of fortune" home from Iraq and Heroinistan to deal with more critical issues?

968Malcolm Knight: Challenges to financial stability in the current global macroeconomic environment #1356989/7/05; 14:11:46

Speech by Malcolm Knight, General Manager of the BIS, at the International Monetary Fund in Washington DC, 6 September 2005


"As to external financial imbalances, the current account deficit of the United States has been trending upwards as a percentage of GDP for over 20 years, and now stands at nearly 6% of GDP. Moreover, the net service account has finally shifted into negative territory, partly reflecting the fact that the United States, the world's richest country, is now also its biggest international debtor."

"What harm might be done should any or all of these imbalances unwind? One possibility could be a sudden crisis in the financial system, though where and when an overextended system might fail is impossible to predict. I think another possibility is much more likely. If the overseas demand for US dollar assets were to slow markedly, for whatever reason, the US dollar would depreciate, world interest rates would rise, and the prices of a number of classes of financial and real assets would weaken. All these adjustments would likely be highly deflationary at the global level. In this case, an extended period of slow global growth could ensue, reinforced and lengthened by an erosion of the capital of financial institutions and other market participants that would sharply curtail their willingness to supply credit. We have observed such "headwinds" so many times in the past that even an economist would have to admit they are possible."
An speech worth a read...

GeneDollar#1356999/7/05; 14:31:30

Towncrier-Thanks. That make things more understandable & logical.Too bad,if that is the case, that the time table is unpredictable.
TownCrierGene, unpredictability#1357009/7/05; 14:38:44

I also don't know the timetable for my death, but I don't let that stop me from living each day as well as possible yet also optimistically provisioning myself for the likelihood that I may live on to see Another day.

Seems to me that the ideal structure of a portfolio ought be a lot like that.


TownCrierFed intervenes in open market, buys Treasury coupons#1357019/7/05; 14:55:46

Despite lack of discernible pressure in the fed funds market, with overnight rates trading in line with the FOMC's 3.5% policy directive, the Federal Reserve system's Trading Desk today nonetheless felt compelled to intervene in the open market to the tune of $11.701 billion.

For starters, the Fed injected $10.5 billion in fresh cash to the reserves of the nation's commercial banking system through a round of overnight repos, largely at a rate of 3.477 percent.

More significantly, the Fed bought Treasuries outright (targeting maturities of Nov 2008 - May 2009), thus contributing props for that debt market while at the same time 'permanently' injecting a fresh and expandable $1.201 billion cash to the nation's money supply at the foundation of its (re)lendable bank reserves.

Choose gold. When the levee breaks you'll have somewhere to stand.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1357029/7/05; 15:13:56">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Wednesday Market Excerpts

September 7 (from Reuters) -- Gold futures in New York closed slightly higher in a sluggish Wednesday session as traders stepped out of the market to weigh the longer-term direction of crude oil and the U.S. economy after Hurricane Katrina.

Final estimated volume was a modest 44,000 contracts on a day when volatility in crude oil prices prompted many gold traders to take a breather.

Meanwhile, the dollar pared gains against the euro and Swiss franc in a seesaw session as investors debated the impact of Hurricane Katrina on the U.S. economy and the outlook for interest rates. The storm could also cost as many as 400,000 U.S. jobs and slash economic growth by up to 1 percentage point, the Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday.

Some investors anticipated that with estimates of federal hurricane aid climbing as high as $200 billion, federal spending on rebuilding and the care of evacuees will more than offset short-term disruptions to economic growth.

"We can talk about oil being down but it's still very high. We can talk about the U.S. dollar being stronger but it's still very weak ... take everything with a grain of salt," said Bernard Hunter, director of precious metals marketing, ScotiaMocatta in Toronto.

By the close, COMEX December gold contracts edged 40 cents higher to $449.00.

SundeckAd-Libbing Many Routes, Ships Return to Mississippi#1357039/7/05; 15:47:09

A short article from the NYT on business returning to normal at port facilities in the south...infrastructure diversity in a "can-do" nation...


TopazBlack Line Fever.#1357049/7/05; 16:23:49

Those of us so afflicted just LOVE these cross-overs as Gold outperforms the alt-currencies.
Normally a delivery month phenomenon, it's positive to see it happening now and reflects the non-comex Physical off-take currently rempant in the Market.
Spot physical is being subsidised by Comex Futures ...what can you say but "THANKS a Million BOYZ!"

GeneTowncrier, well said.#1357059/7/05; 17:41:00

I think if we compared portfolios we would find many similarities. Someone once said,"Get right then sit tight".
GoldiloxIndian oil search in Cuban waters#1357069/7/05; 17:51:34


The Indian state oil company, ONGC, has come to an agreement with the Cuban government to begin exploring for oil in the Gulf of Mexico.
The US geological survey has estimated that up to five billion barrels of oil could lie undiscovered in Cuban waters.

Drilling might begin next year but previous deep water drilling attempts have not proved commercially viable.

The United States trade embargo on Cuba prevents American companies from participating in the exploration.

Cuba's portion of the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico remains largely unexplored for oil.

Rising oil prices make that exploration far more attractive.

American oil companies

Already, companies from Canada and Spain have been assigned parts of the 112,000sq km area.

Now India is joining in the search.

Announcing the successful bid, India's junior foreign minister, Inderjit Singh, said his country had valuable experience in deep water oil exploration and an expanding thirst for energy.

"India's economy is growing at seven to eight percent over the last 15 years," Inderjit Singh said.

"To sustain this growth, we need energy, and to get that energy, we are trying to tap all the sources - Cuba is one of them."


Interesting side bar!

GeneTowncrier#1357079/7/05; 17:56:58

I forgot to mention that I'm getting up in years & am probably getting a little impatient. I suppose the waiting is getting to a lot of us.Let's hope the rewards will be worth a lot more than the wait.At the very least our investing philosophy will see us through the hard times coming.
TownCrier968, thanks, I read Malcolm Knight's latest#1357089/7/05; 17:58:29

Delivered to the IMF (the heart of Dollardom on Earth), it was presented roundly in softish, dollar-system friendly tones; and yet he still managed to sound a note on the alarm bell and generally issue a call to action aiming at redressing policy in the face of chronicly intractable imbalances such as seen in the (S)state of the dollar and its conditions of issue.

A crafty, tactful presentation.


GoldiloxHave Your Cake, and Eat it Too!#1357099/7/05; 17:58:57


The interest rate spin in the mainstream financial press is all over the place. Some argue we need to stop the rate increases due to the economic damages created by the storm, while the Fed continues to get more and more bad news on the inflation front. Higher energy prices translate to less disposable income and put inflationary forces into play throughout the entire economy in manufacturing, transportation and service industries. From a year ago, gasoline is higher by 65%, heating oil is 70% higher and natural gas has gone through the roof with a 143% increase from last year. It looks like $3.00 gasoline for your car is going to look cheap compared to what your heating bill is going to look like with the cold Winter Season just a few months away.

The thing that bothers me the most about all the interest rate spin is the effect it is having on stocks and the dollar. Last week in the face of utter destruction, stocks rallied with a bunch of hype the Fed would stop raising interest rates. Today the dollar rallied on speculation the Fed would have to continue raising rates due to increased inflationary pressures. Stocks have continued their rally from last week, even though interest rates are beginning to move higher this week. This week, interest rates don't matter as much, because supposedly, stocks are higher because oil and gas prices are coming down from their record highs. Go figure!


The spinmeisters are having a go at what's driving the markets during these confusing times. You can find just about any possible justification for everything right now.

GoldiloxWorth the wait?#1357109/7/05; 18:04:54

@ Gene,

As easy as it is to jump on the spec bandwagon (I'm certainly not immune to that), your second hope reflects more poetic truth. Survival in hard times is infinitely more important.

A friend told me yesterday that if the "big one" hits SF, he has enough food and water for 30 days. Admirable, but if he is rendered unable to hunker down in his home as many in NO, I suggested contingency plans are important, as well.

TownCrierGene, on patience#1357119/7/05; 18:16:28

Having an understanding that the gold in your own hands possesses a hidden, or latent, purchasing power many orders of magnitude greater than can currently be realized/utilized under the current structure of the market's pricing mechanism, the potential certainly exists to become very irritated or impatiently frustrated waiting for the market's value-measurement capacity (pricing mechanism) to be righted.

However, I would suggest to you that the best way to pacify these potential irritabilities is to remind yourself that we did, in fact, acquire this gold during this undervalued period, and hence, we each have been able to purchase a far greater weight of it than we would otherwise have had the means to possess.

I would say that's a happy mitigation as we await the inevitable, no?


GeneTowncrier#1357129/7/05; 21:17:38

Yes indeed I did aquire a bunch during the under valued period.While I live very comfortably, I have not yet aquired that wealth that permits me to do things with wreckless abandon. Not that I would; I'm too old & too old fashoned for that. I do however have the desire to own a yacht just to have cocktails on board.Lord knows I would never leave the dock.On a more serious note; I don't think those foreign central banks have the intestinal fortitude to do the gradual transformation from short term to long term treasuries simply to reduce the yield & increase the value of the bonds.Somewhere along the line there has got to be a point of no return.There is an end somewhere. They are either in or they are out. If they are in they are risking their own economic security. If they are out they have bet that wealth is only produced by work and only areas that produce by work will survive. If I am wrong, there is one hell-ov-a grand conspiricy going on in this country. Please tell me if I am all wet!

Gold Hillponderoso#1357139/7/05; 21:35:32

Belgian, I've learned so much from your posts; But we have to create our own Ponderoso. The "cradel to grave" mentality is what will bring this country to its downfall.
TownCrierGene, on CB reserves, bond positions#1357149/7/05; 22:58:25

You didn't quite "stick the landing" in your recapitulation.

Take another look at the graphic representation of the yield curve. What I was saying was that by shifting out to the long end, they do indeed get better yields than at the short end. Any comment about this bringing yields "lower" would have been intended with respect to where those LONG-term yields had previously been -- that is to say, NOT relative to the yields on the short end as you seem to be conveying.

And to reiterate my primary premise, in contrast to what you are suggesting, it would NOT require intestinal fortitude for the CBs to migrate holdings to the long end because they realize that liquidity (vis à vis principal plus exchange rate factor) is largely a moot point (fantasy, illusion) at this juncture.

If the bond holdings are already effectively dead in the water, it sure doesn't require guts to act, shall we say, "unconventionally", in choosing a new Trail to a necessary destination where equilibrium may be found (MTM holdings and complementing "free gold" physical pricing).


Liberty HeadUnderstanding How The Fed Works#1357159/8/05; 01:42:19

From The Chauncy Gardner School of Economics

The flowers open, flies go in, the flowers shut.

mikalNew derivatives exchange hopes to be "hub" starting November#1357169/8/05; 05:45:33

Dubai Exchange Head Sees Gold at $500 Soon - Reuters - 09/08
Belgian@ Gold Hill#1357179/8/05; 07:19:01

I'm already having an idea about the new Ponderoso (society) that is already in the make through the present many absurdistan situations. I'll do the best I can to translate this in simple terms in more than one single post :

Katrina example : The monetary expansion + intervention that this disaster is going to presented these "future growth" !? That's that same old idea of having a destructive war when facing severe and lasting economic dead locks. W're stuck...can't find a way out with classic management (read intervention)...let's have a destructive war...and start all over again !
That's exactly how I do experience the state of mind on the AA side of the (western) globe. Euroland and the East are definitely in another state of mind as both find themselves in another (cyclic) stage of the natural evolution of things. EU and China are not yet over the hill !

All this monetary expansion of the past 3 decades and the present haven't "YET" resulted in general massive price-inflation. The price-inflation that you and I are experiencing is extremely mild versus what it should already have been...if...intervention and management would have stayed on a healthy level. Wich is definitely NOT the case.

W're lucky that 968 isn't posting all those speeches from official bodies (ECB/FED/imf/bis/oecd/etc). Otherwise we would realize how extremely worried all these astute observers really are. Worried about the unbelieveable levels of interventional management.

Do see this period as buying time for having that new modern Ponderosa being build. A global farm where the AA domination of fiat money is in the process of being reduced.
India buys 43 Airbuses and signs the Galileo (EU - GPS)contracts.
There will come a new, differently oriented, IMS that will allow us to re-live those Ponderosa times. The functionality of what we used to call money, is in the process of changing. In the nearby future, w're not going to debate about infla/defla/stagfla dadayada. Money will become a 100% politically managed (regulated) numeraire, a unit of account. Than we don't have to rant about the mis-management of the numeraire anymore...simply because one will not see the numeraire as a saving anymore. And, already guess it perhaps...your future savings are going to be consolidated in ...GOLDMETAL WEALTH !

All will immediately start to shout and yell that this is a (bad) jike and that B. is nuts.

Then I'll ask them to watch the big picture again and explain WHY the goldprice MUST ABSOLUTELY REMAIN FROZEN !? Emphasis on "-MUST-". Not for a few years but actually for 3 different periods of a couple of decades. Gold-standard > (1933)Fixed goldprice > (1971) Semi Fixed goldprice...
A century of evolving goldprice-fixing-management, whilst the money-system ALSO evolved...from a savings + trade settlement utility to a fully managed unit of account.

In those early days ...we still had that Ponderosa mentality (state of mind). Now I can't yet define how we should call our state of mind. Political economy is not something farm-like (not even cowboy-esk).

Back to the present goldprice deepfreezing that already lasts for one decade...and it is in this very same recent decade that we have a glimpse of official gold action (CBs and other institutions). NOT a coincidence dearest GH...absolutely NOT a coincidence.

There are 2 (TWO) opposing (!!!) factions concerned with the actions for goldprice deepfreezing !!!
The old monetarists supporting the $-IMS (without Ponderosa) and the new unit of account-ists, LESS and LESS supporting the $-IMS.
Randy regulary reminds us about the evolving offer/demand situation of available bullion (goldmetal). Available means : WHO IS STILL READY TO PROVIDE order to provide support for the $-IMS that still needs a dollar-numeraire that is perceptively related to gold (its price and pricing). Simplier, gold (the goldprice) says...the dollar is OK, so continue to operate under the $-IMS flag.
That's the "function" of the goldprice...its symbolic utility !!!
Any rise (rising trend) of the goldprice THAT WOULD PROVOKE MORE GOLDMETAL UPTAKE would suffocate the dying dollar and its $-IMS !!! To avoid...AVOID...any not controlleable goldmetal uptake...there is ONLY ONE tool >>> Murderous goldprice control and permanent loss-producing management of the goldprice. Loss producing for those who continue to manifest their distrust in the $-IMS by buying gold ! Don't you dare touch gold or we burn your fingers !

This period is already behind us, GH...definitely behind us !!! Think WAG...again and AGAIN up until you can grasp the entire meaning and purpose of it. And the fact that WAG-II was realized means that both factions mean real business...real change in gold-regime versus money > units of account. Currencies don't want to "remain" dollar derivatives for ever.

Our job (conclusion) as individuals is simple and exiting : Once w've understood and cross checked the ongoing transition in its entirity...JUST TAKE BULLION OUT OF THIS AGING SYSTEM AND STOREIT IN PRIVATE POSSESSION FOR THE NEW SYSTEM !!!
This is happening now ! The liquidity of available goldmetal, in $-IMS support, is slowly but steadily drying up. The remaining gold accumulators are those that know in wich direction things do evolve and those who are not at all intimidated by the goldprice terror !! Asians (a few billion people) are simply not aware that goldprice management even exists. The monetary guards in their states' ivory towers do know what gold means in its entire (global) context. But all these people in the East always took the right view at gold, because it was always too obvious for theml that their currencies were (still are) dollar derivatives and depreciated always faster and deeper than their $-master. So they always defended temselves with goldmetal that lived a life in their depreciating currency, regardless of the dollar. Just imagine that King dollar starts to depreciate faster than their currencies (yuan)...and a massive flight out of their dollar-savings has to go into unavailable (scarce) goldmetal. To be avoided at any cost...up until there is enough critical mass of political will on that $-opposing faction that decides to STOP all support for the "dollar-gold" regime, simply by NOT delivering the minimum of goldmetal anymore. The minimum goldmetal required to maintain enough liquidity. Shortages in liquidity always provoke hoarding with catastrophic (gold)price rises. Exactly what happened in the 1971 > 1980 decade ! That was the main gold-lesson for the users of the $-IMS ! That particular experience learned them that the $-IMS could not last for ever on the same basis. That's where the idea of freely priced gold (freegold) incorporated in another IMS, was born.

It was all the above that I was thinking of when that name Ponderosa fell. I remembered those old times when some very particular fundamentals (happy ones) were completely different from now. But please, don't ask the beef-question...I don't know when w're gone move and live in the Ponderosa !?
There still are goldreserves that can be brought to the liquidity needing market. Cfr. the most recent 30 tonnes of Belgian ...sorry ESoCB/BIS' gold. Bear in mind that no dollar-terminator will ever rise !!! The dollar (and its system) must and shall succomb under its own mismanagement !!! Always keep this in mind as to understand WHY things happen to gold as they do. Listen to what Trichet says and how his standpoints evolve.

To stop or permanently slowing down the liquidity of goldmetal is a matter of strategy + (geo)political considerations. Don't expect any serious transparancy into this political stratego. Everything that goes public will come out of the blue and always without any possibility to place it in any context. As to have nobody asking (investigating) the WHY questions. State (System) Security...sounds almost SS.

No wonder that the goldprice should stick to the USDX !!! Any decoupling of the goldprice from its money antithesis ($) is a too serious indication that freegold (free priced gold) is heading onwards ! No passera, for the time being, as explained.
Now realize the importance (signal function) of the €-goldprize that jumped over a 15 year old resistance ! Bearing in mind that the €-numeraire has IMS ambitions. Don't jump on the euro. Exchange controls can be organized overnight (and most probably will happen for a certain period).

More later...

CoBra(too)@Ned#1357189/8/05; 07:20:37

Just checking in to say thank you for your kind words "NED" lately.
While not being a hero, just another seeker of the way individudals may find "individual" - as in best suiting -concepts to weather the upcoming financial and social storm.

Regards cb2

CoBra(too)@OvS#1357199/8/05; 07:26:50

Since you leave me with the choice of weapons - very generous - I'm opting for fair sized Tullamore Dew kegs.
And I'll let you decide if to drink, throw or roll 'em to also establish my own generosity. We can still hurl gold bars too ...
Hic'- my preference - cb2

Belgian@Mikal#1357209/8/05; 08:14:17

Dubai, one of these very special gold places. We better take their call of $500/Oz serious. But don't try to find any reliable (reality) stat on the Dubai circulation of bullion.
When they wish to see (to call for) a higher goldprice...than there are good reasons for this. Get rid of some of their it for lasting universal gold wealth. Not mobilize price-frozen gold to make it circulate from hand to hand. But taking gold out of the liquidity pool and forcing a pricelevel that reflects (for a very small part) the purchasing power of is done with the precious black gold that BTW is only half way its real revaluation.

Bear in mind that the whole Dubai exchange is explosively growing...also becoming fully independant (guess from what) and build their share of pricing power by free market practices >>> Accumulation of bullion in possession.
Here (in Dubai) you have a natural process going on that is drying up the goldmetal liquidity. Also read Randy's post on the new gold rules in India...ment to help maintain the goldmetal liquidity. Because official gold cannot and does not want to provide goldmetal (for delivery) at a faster pace and more weight.

The goldprice fixing (freezing) works two ways, once the gold stashes are declining faster.

But Arabian oil (and Dubai gold) have to take into account that for the time being, the whole planet still lives under the $-IMS regime. If the Dubai gold uptake goes parabolic as to affect the goldprice too dramatically...they devalue the $-numeraire in wich they price their oil !!! Avoid to land in such a viscious circle...prématurally. That's the nature of their call ($500/Oz).
$500 POG : $60 POO = 8,3 wich corresponds more or less with the USDX=80.
Today we have $448 POG : $65 POO = 6,9 wich is an all time extreme low, unsupportable for the Dubai gold exchange.

KnallgoldPOG#1357219/8/05; 09:59:47

Gold is hammered like a nail into the cage again.Somehow this fits with the recent lease rates plunge,they expected a POG surge,managed lease rates down to "free".They're up again now and more Goldloans have been dumped on the Goldmarket and POG is back to normal for Another week.450 seems a very hot level.
CamelBelgian#1357229/8/05; 10:50:41

"If the Dubai gold uptake goes parabolic as to affect the goldprice too dramatically...they devalue the $-numeraire in wich they price their oil !!! Avoid to land in such a viscious circle...prématurally"

Exactly. And the same holds true for the gradual shift out of the dollar to the " basket of currencies". All must be done slowly and methodically so as not to upset the existing order, devaluing their own remaining reserves, all within the the character and modus operendi that we might expect of the CB s and G 8 and whatever other alphabet soup organizations that are running the show. Like moving one person from the front to the back of a small rowboat, all must be done slowly and carefully without rocking the boat.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Especially designed for those who are taking their first step...#1357239/8/05; 11:17:10">gold ownership starter kit
968Navigating the New Economy, Lesson 1: "Worth its Weight in OIL"#1357249/8/05; 11:21:11

"The introduction of the Euro exposed a pre-existing economic vulnerability like Hurricane Katrina exposed a pre-existing physical vulnerability (lots of people crammed along a coastline). The coastline was not fundamentally safe the week before the hurricane- but only temporarily safe. The temporary absence of a trigger that reveals old weakness is not the same as fundamental strength."

"The expansion of the global marketplace depends on cheap oil. Cheap oil ENDED in 1999. There will be a MAJOR contraction- and it already started effecting the dollar."

"So consider that today, if you price oil in terms of gold, yen, euro, and so on, oil is still rising in purchasing power dramatically. This is not just a national fluctuation- that is, reflecting merely a drop in the dollar- but a very major change in international oil markets.

Lately, oil markets are really experiencing a major shift in supply and demand- according to international prices. And, once again, the dollar contract is losing purchasing power as it is losing prominence. The dollar was still the unchallenged premier currency in the world...until 1999.

But the dollar's recent all-time lows are not about the competition from the Euro, folks. That is just the immediate trigger. It's about oil.

The primary issue is no longer simply that Americans use much more oil than they produce. This shortage is world-wide. Because of the extremism of the American addiction/dependency on oil, the dollar is just doing the worst of any major currency- and of course it had the most "market share" to lose!

So, let's look at the value of the dollar from 2000-2002 in terms of multiple comparisons. In terms of oil, the dollar lost a LOT of value (about an 80% relative loss). In terms of EVERYTHING ELSE, the dollar still didn't do very well, but nearly not as bad as compared to oil."

"If you price yen in gold, euros, US real estate or US stocks, the yen was rather flat. It was flat relative to pricing yen in dollars (outperforming) or oil (underperforming).

If you price euros in gold, yen, US real estate or US stocks, the euro was rather flat. It was flat relative to pricing euro in dollars (outperfoming) or oil (underperforming).

If you price US real estate in yen, gold, euros, or US stocks, the US real estate market was rather flat. It was flat relative to pricing it in dollars (outperforming) or oil (underperforming).

If you price US stocks in US real estate, yen, gold, or euros, the US stock market was rather flat. It was flat relative to pricing it in dollars (outperforming) or oil (underperforming). "
Although I do not completely agree with the author, a nice read to view things from another angle.

TownCrierFed again intervenes ($18.7 billion) in open market, buys Treasuries outright#1357259/8/05; 11:39:16

Just like yesterday, the trading desk for the Federal Reserve contributed props to the bond market while concurrently injecting fresh cash to the reserves of the nation's banking system, thus enhancing the base from which the money supply may expand through additional lending/borrowing activity.

To begin, the Fed pumped $13 billion through operations utilizing 14-day repurchase agreements, at an effective rate of 3.508%. It then further juiced the fed funds market with an additional $5.25 billion in liquidity through a round of overnight repos. Next, in a more significant gesture, the Fed bought inflation-tracking Treasuries outright, targeting maturities all over the spectrum from January 2007 to April 2032 while injecting $450 million to the 'permanent' expandible money supply.

Money is 'easy', and one of gold's primary roles is to say so. Soon enough it will.


TownCrier968, getting there...#1357269/8/05; 11:47:44

As moments allow, at your prior request for thoughts I'm reading through Robert McCauley's section of the Quarterly Review of international banking and financial market developments (Sept 05). Was there an additional chapter or specific area that you wanted me to take under consideration?


GoldiloxFibbonaci Article#1357279/8/05; 11:55:14

@ 968,

I posted the same article from FSO earlier in the week. It looks like the same editorialists frequent all of the "regular sites".

Can you elaborate on what parts you disagree with? That would add some more interesting thoughts to the mix, methinks.



968@ Towncrier#1357289/8/05; 12:10:50

No, I would like to hear your thoughts on the McCauly article.
Or, did you discovered something else in the Quarterly Review ?

Thanks in advance.

GoldiloxNOAA ISSUES SPACE WEATHER WARNING;#1357299/8/05; 12:11:06


Sept. 7, 2005 — Forecasters at the NOAA Space Environment Center in Boulder, Colo., Wednesday observed one of the largest solar flares on record at 1:40 p.m. EDT. The forecasters are predicting significant solar eruptions in the coming days. Agencies impacted by space weather storms may experience disruptions over the next two weeks. These include spacecraft operations, electric power systems, high frequency communications and low-frequency navigation systems.


Just to add a little comm confusion, and for those so inclined to believe in solar links to storm activation energies, this could be another hectic weekend.

TownCrier9', Thanks, I'll let you know when finished with it.#1357309/8/05; 12:21:09

968@ Goldilox#1357319/8/05; 12:23:19

Sorry Goldilox, I didn't know it was already posted.
I would like to hear some remarks by others on this article first.

Towncrier, Belgian, Aristotle (please!!!),... what are your views on the article ?

GoldiloxNot to challenge#1357329/8/05; 12:27:38

@ 968,

I wasn't concerned that it had already been posted, but your statement that you disagreed with the author intrigued me. I am quite interested in "which parts" you disagreed with.

I hope you are comfortable posting these, IMHO, more relevant thoughts.

Thanks again,


TopazWell-well?#1357339/8/05; 12:31:20

So, out of the blue we have 1003 Deliveries in Sept, a robust PoG spike to get them done, and hammertime thereafter.

Maybe leftovers from Aug?
If so I'd reckon on a few more skeletons lurking thereabouts ...another 19k would be good.

968@ Goldilox#1357349/8/05; 12:46:55

To name two parts :
Do you find anything about a possible gold-euro link ?
What currency does he foresee as the new oil currency ?
What about a possible gold-oil link ?
He says gold underperformed the dollar the last 25 years, but not WHY !!!!

And : "The expansion of the global marketplace depends on cheap oil. Cheap oil ENDED in 1999. There will be a MAJOR contraction- and it already started effecting the dollar."

Is it really the contraction of the marketplace that affects the dollar ?????

TownCrierBelgian, excellent#1357359/8/05; 12:53:48

To comment on your comments:

"The functionality of what we used to call money, is in the process of changing. In the nearby future...... Money will become a 100% politically managed (regulated) numeraire, a unit of account. Than we don't have to rant about the mis-management of the numeraire anymore...simply because one will not see the numeraire as a saving anymore."

" century of evolving goldprice-fixing-management, whilst the money-system ALSO evolved...from a savings + trade settlement utility to a fully managed unit of account."

"In those early days ...we still had that Ponderosa mentality (state of mind). Now I can't yet define how we should call our state of mind. Political economy is not something farm-like (not even cowboy-esk)."

My comment: On the subject of "what to call it", maybe we don't have to look much farther than this: Farmers, ranchers, even the "eskiest" cowboys on a Ponderosa all get to vote in periodic elections, right?

In the same way that life on the Pondersa goes on much the same even as we, as a voting collective, shift our balance slightly back and forth vacillating between a political regime led by leftist (Democrat) or rightist (Republican) persuasions, likewise might we be able to continue raising crops and driving cattle across our Ponderosa as our monetary regime -- the politically managed numeraire -- undergoes periods in which is shifts back or forth between easing and tightening as they try to manage the numeraire price of bread in Virginia City. At the same time, the free price of gold will translate the meaning of it all in understandable language to Hop Sing's family back in China. And vice versa.


OvSSeeker, find your way to the Erzherzog Johann Huette.#1357369/8/05; 12:57:13

CoBra(too), you misunderstood.
I gave you a choice of the
mentioned weapons only... But
since I am sooo reasonable (I
understand misunderstandings..)
I'll accept your Tullamore Dew
challenge with the following
We meet at the Erzherzog Johann
Huette. Be there New Year's morn'
at 3am (the hut is only open July
through September, but Rupert will
give me his keys). Only "you" are
allowed 2 (two) "seconds" (one for
each arm on the way down). To warm
up, we start by downing 1(one)pint
of Yukan Snakebite, followed by a
keg of Tullamore Dew.
Whoever's eyes first sees the rising
sun's "Strahlen" (which means, who-
ever is still standing) wins.
If you believe me, I bought the last
known existing "full" bottle of a
"pre" 1913 Nun's Island Distillery
single malt whisky for $182,000.-
from Ken, a friend's cousin. Now, if
you lose the duel, I'll let you buy
this bottle. And to show you my gener-
ocity, I'll let you buy it for only
365 one ounze Philharmoniker--about an
equivalent amount of Dubai's predicted
new year's gold "price". Of course, if
YOU win, the "bottle" is yours
"scotch free"...OvS

BelgianNews + personal interpretation#1357379/8/05; 13:52:22

India buys 43 Airbuses (2 billion) and signs Galileo (EU-GPS).
This solidifies the China-EU-India triangle.
Putin signs pipeline contract (gas) with Shroder. Another step closer to energy for euro.

CoBra(too)OvS#1357389/8/05; 13:57:36

Des is ma z'bled, Traummandel, Du!

Sorry, for seemingly using this board for "private" vendettas, though this guy is just like N.O's toxic waste, IMHO!

... and what a waste of time too - tku and see u some time again ... cb2

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1357399/8/05; 14:19:54">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Thursday Market Excerpts

September 8 (from MarketWatch) -- Strong demand and inflation fears lifted the December contract for gold futures to a six-month high Thursday.

Prices eased off that lofty level, but closed above $450 an ounce for the first time in a month.

The possibility of "Fed Reserve inaction on a rate increase next week is like water to the precious metals 'garden'," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report.

"Gold will bloom in this environment," he said.

Gold for December delivery climbed to a high of $453.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract hasn't traded that high since March 16, though it did touch a high slightly below that at $453.40 on Aug. 12.

Prices closed at $450.70, up $1.70.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)----

TopazShakes.#1357409/8/05; 14:31:33

The Lunar "pull" is, it appears again impacting EQ stress points with some pretty unusual events.
The Swiss 5.1 @ only 2k depth around the East of Lake Geneva would be an eye-opener ...Knall, any reports?

GoldiloxFibonacci#1357419/8/05; 14:38:42

@ 968,

Thanks much for elaborating. I saw his ideas about "oil contraction" related to supply constraints, but then, my perspective may also be polluted lately by a healthy dose of Simmons, et al.

Beyond this question, it seems that your main complaints were what he chose to omit as opposed to what he said. Am I reading you correctly?


GoldiloxShakes#1357429/8/05; 14:42:09

@ Topaz,

I noticed this 5.1 disturbance in Switzerland this morning in my daily perusal of USGS data.

Now, is this related to solar imbalance, or perhaps a BIS reaction to persistantly strong POG?

GoldiloxMontreux#1357439/8/05; 14:44:38

@ Topaz,

One last thought. Perhaps the Montreux Jazz festival is "really rockin" this year.


Topaz@G'Lox.#1357449/8/05; 14:49:39

Sitting here patiently waiting for Gold OI to update ...yes a BIS reaction to the PoG spike in NY for sure ;-)
Chronic late for work these last few weeks, my standard excuse is "Black-Line Fever" ...and they all nod knowingly!

Belgian968 - Fibonacci article#1357459/8/05; 15:03:51

Find it a bit chaotic...and you pinpointed the author's main weakness >>> The WHY questioning + EFFORTS TO COME UP WITH A PLAUSABLE ANSWER.

Of course we agree (in general) with the listing of his observations. But what does it mean...a dollar exchange rate that goes with the $-POG !?
What does it mean that the rise of the $-POO outrunned the USDX !?

This gentlemen is not that interested (academically) in the WHY's of his observations...he wants to earn a living with selling his views on paper. He wants to make money, !
Fair enough, evidently.

Today, the EU is preparing actions (policies-?) to do more as to neutralize the effects that rising oil(fuel)prices cause. Oil goes public !
Fibonacci has mentioned how the dollar has acted in relation to oil during the past 3 decades. He forgets to mention that other power blocks (oil-consumers-clients), gathering around another numeraire (€), now also wish to have a say on oil and oil-policies in concertation with the major owners of the oilreserves.
The many observations of Fibo lack the analysis (The Why) of the strategic (evolving) interactions between €-$-€/$POO-€/$POG-€/$ exchange rate-etc.
Quite important if one wishes to sell profitable financial advise build on a good projection (realistic gamble) into the future.

One needs to be quite sure about the REAL reason for... real nature of... oils's price rise !!! Idem dito WHY oil's dollarprice remained within horizontal bounderies for almost 30 years !!! Idem dito the WHY of the very particular LT goldprice patterns in non dollar currencies (majors). Doing good observation work is only the first and easiest step of the comple analysis.

I very much like the LT MSFT picture (pattern) : A perfect reproduction of 20 years political management, regulation and intervention. Simply answer the WHY question on the 3 different parts of this chart >>> exhuberance (monopolistic expansion) - crash (reality) - denial(super intervention).
All under the flag of genuine "market economy" ! (mu personal cynical opinion of course).

Since Fibo shows the USDX chart...I wonder what he thinks about that particular USDX=80 fenomenon ?

Glad to hear that fibo makes the fundamental difference between exchange rates and purchasing power and that he elaborates on the difference between the (nominal) price of gold / oil and the purchasing power of gold and oil !!! Great. That's exactly where the new story for oil/gold and currencies is starting (has already started).
Old exchange rate dominance (the regime) is going to lose versus the new purchasing power realities !!! >>> ECB : Stability and Growth and not growth for the sake of growth at any cost (FED). How does one read this fundamental difference in chart patterns that reflect the strategies ?

And finally as you suggested...who knows...we have super cheap oil for all, when the political will manages to get gold(pricing) free !? How childishly simple. Give oil freegold and all the oil is free again to flow ! Give the chinese freegold and they produce in cooperation with the west. Let the € be the numeraire of freegold and we have a global level playing field. There is only one single party that certainly disagrees with this suggestion. Amen and bedtime.

Cavan ManSelf Explanatory#13574609/08/05; 16:02:28

by Doug Casey

After the price of gold spiked over $850 in January of 1980, gold production increased substantially - and it stayed up, even with the steep falloff in gold prices. Production has gone from about 1,200 tonnes per year in 1980 to its current level, over 2,500 tpy.

Where did all that new gold production come from? Aside from the dramatic increase in price incentive in 1980, new technologies have matured, such as heap leaching and satellite prospect identification. In addition, since the collapse of communism, many prospective areas of the world have opened to modern exploration.

Another economic factor keeping the price of gold down recently has been producer hedging. This is a particularly complex part of the puzzle, but in a nutshell, when gold was falling, as it was from 1980 to 2000, many big producers, starting with Barrick, "hedged" against decreasing prices by selling large portions of their future production at substantially over the then-current prices. Since gold is a "carrying charge" market, it's usually possible to sell several years forward at a price reflecting current interest rates and storage costs. In the mid '80s, when gold was, say, $400, that meant they could sell three years out for, say, $520. When time came to deliver, the metal might actually have traded for only $350. That was a very smart thing to do - at the time. What wasn't so smart was failing to recognize when gold bottomed out and prices started rising again. The producers have started de-hedging in the last couple of years but they still have massive short position! s. By some estimates, on the order of 1,700 tonnes of gold - almost half last year's entire gold supply from all sources - is still sold forward.

Obviously, gold sold forward in the last 5-7 years at prices considerably below today's is costing these companies a fortune, but the big impact on price may come from the bullion banks. Why? Because they could borrow gold from central banks for nominal interest rates (0.5 to 1.0%), sell it on the open market (believing they will be able to return it when they take delivery on futures contracts bought from hedging mines) and invest the proceeds, conservatively, to clear a 4 to 5% profit margin.

This had the effect of increasing the global supply of gold, basically adding already produced (borrowed) reserves onto the production/supply side of the scales.

Another purely economic factor holding the price of gold back may simply be traders selling every time gold approaches $440. Why do I say that? In part because you can see gold retreat time and time again, as it approaches $440 - $450. As Jon Nadler, a senior executive with explains: traders, not being long-term-oriented folks, are not waiting for gold to go to the moon. They are perfectly happy to buy in the $417 - $430 range and sell the moment they can make $20 - $30 per ounce. This doesn't really affect the balance of supply and demand, but since prices are fixed at the margins in general, and are particularly volatile in a relatively small but psychologically important market like gold (if supply hits 4,000 tonnes this year, that would only be $57 billion at $440 gold), even a modest amount of selling by traders can have a strongly negative short-term effect on prices.

In addition, investor fascination with real estate is drawing capital from other investments, even undervalued ones like gold. Why did investors focus on real estate, rather than gold, after the tech bubble burst, the dollar started falling, and broader equities markets started trading sideways?

I attribute it mainly to the fact that gold was in a secular bear market from 1980 to 2001. As a consequence, a whole generation of investors grew up thinking of it as an investment "dog" as well as a monetary anachronism. Largely due to the strong growth of the U.S. economy and the years of low interest rates have spawned a complacent mentality among most Americans; they expect continuous prosperity. Given the record levels of debt among individuals and the federal government, this feeling of prosperity must be a form of mass delusion.

Rising interest rates are already putting the squeeze on credit card and mortgage holders with variable interest rates. That could get very ugly, very quickly. Though we are seeing the beginnings of a change in attitude, most institutional and retail investors still think putting capital in gold and other precious metals is a little loony.

When the housing bubble bursts, though, I suspect things will begin to change. Stocks, bonds, and the depreciating dollar won't provide a refuge. The herd is going to head into commodities in general, and gold in particular. Gold is, after all, the crisis commodity - and, as explained in last month's edition of this newsletter, I am more convinced than ever that we're heading for a financial crisis that's going to dwarf what we saw in the '30s.

As long-time readers know, I don't generally subscribe to conspiracy theories. Occam's Razor dictates that the simplest solution to a problem is likely the most correct one. And anybody who has tried to get a few friends to agree on something as simple as what movie to watch can imagine how hard it might be getting dozens of the most powerful malefactors in the world to agree on how to suppress the gold price. But I have to say that the folks at the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee ( present a pretty compelling case.

Central banks may not be able to control the price of gold, as was the case before 1971, but they have the motive, means and appearance of influencing it. The U.S. in particular, since its dollar has in good measure replaced gold as a reserve asset around the world, has an interest in seeing low gold prices, and a quiet gold market. Why? Because the value of the world's fiat currencies, particularly the dollar, rests mainly upon the confidence of the public.

Unfortunately, confidence is not a stable foundation upon which to build the world economy. Like any attitude, confidence can change over night. Governments want to maintain confidence at all costs, and the one thing most likely to destroy it and set off a full-scale monetary panic, is a runaway gold price. Therefore, it's quite logical that they will make every effort to suppress the price of gold.

How? Remember what I said about producer hedging above? The key component of GATA's claims is that the central banks are lending gold to bullion banks and still keeping the gold on their books as reserves. In these "swaps", each bar of gold essentially gets counted twice, exerting a negative pressure on the gold price when the borrowed gold gets sold on the open market.

There's no question that bullion banks are selling borrowed gold - what makes this the stuff of a "conspiracy" is that GATA says the central banks are not being truthful about whether or not they are counting gold not actually in their vaults as reserves.

Specifically, GATA chairman Bill Murphy says the central banks are reporting an aggregate of about 31,000 tonnes of gold held in reserve, but only have about half as much in their vaults. The amount of gold they actually have on hand may be as little as 14,000, or even 12,000 tonnes.

Murphy says the IMF claims it "recommends" that swapped gold be excluded from reserve assets. However, some central banks report otherwise. For example, a footnote on the central bank of the Philippines web site contradicts the IMF's claim: "Beginning January 2000, in compliance with the requirements of the IMF's reserves and foreign currency liquidity swaps undertaken by the BSP with non-central banks shall be treated as collateralized loans. Thus, gold under the swap arrangement remains to be part of reserves..."

The European Central Bank, the Bank of Finland, the German Bundesbank and the Bank of Portugal also confirmed in writing to GATA that swapped gold remains a reserve asset as per IMF regulations. So, clearly there is a disconnect here. Summarizing the GATA argument, in their own words: "GATA believes that the implications of IMF accounting procedures for reversible gold transactions are very significant. Clearly deceptive accounting, countenanced by the IMF, has allowed official sector gold to hit the market without a corresponding drawdown on the balance sheets of central banks. This has made it impossible for analysts to ascertain the exact size of official sector gold loans, swaps and deposits. The unwillingness of central banks to provide even a minimum level of transparency suggests that total gold receivables are substantially larger than the accepted industry figure of approximately 5,000 tonnes. Macroeconomist and former World Bank consultant Frank Veneroso contends that 10,000-15,000 tonnes of gold have left central bank vaults via loans, deposits and swaps."

Could central bankers really be stupid enough to lend out gold to people who are selling it, in return for a measly 0.5% interest? Yes. My impression of central bankers is that most are not smart enough to buy low and sell high; they're a bunch of stumblebums from wealthy families who know how to dress well. They likely feel quite clever getting 0.5%, when before they were getting nothing. I also don't doubt the favor to the bullion banks often gets repaid with cushy jobs or consulting contracts after the bureaucrats go out into the private sector.

What happens if production from Barrick and the other hedged producers (many of whom are taking a severe beating from rising costs and commitments to sell gold at below-market prices) falls off and J.P. Morgan and the other bullion banks can't replace the gold they've sold at prices they can afford to pay? It'll be a scandal of a scale that, by itself, could move gold much higher.

But even if that doesn't happen, it's easy to see that the bullion banks must feel a well-deserved and thoroughly unpleasant jolt of panic every time the price of gold heads north - especially with mine strikes in South Africa, unrest in Peru and environmental activism threatening gold production in other places. If they can't replace the gold they've sold from new mine production, they'll have to get it on the open market, and that could wipe them out. And if the bullion banks go bust, the central banks will be caught with their suspenders down; they'll be forced to go public, admitting that they have less than half the gold they've been reporting in reserve. Fear of that outcome could certainly drive them to lend even more gold to the bullion banks, adding selling pressure whenever the price of gold goes up, making the hole they are digging deeper each time.

Whether or not there's any deliberate price manipulation may be hard for GATA to prove. However, GATA's questions of the central bankers regarding their policies on reserves, swaps, sales, etc. are valid and deserve answers. I've made light of GATA's efforts to force disclosure in the past only because I've felt they were doomed to failure, not because I disapproved of the intent. I asked Bill Murphy how long before the bullion banks and central banks hit the wall and the whole house of cards collapses. Bill answered: "I think we're there now. I'm not sure the central banks can lend any more gold out - the scandal could break at any moment."


Doug Casey

GoldiloxMusings on other posts#13574709/08/05; 17:40:22

@ CavanMan, Belgian, et al,

1) Casey says: "This had the effect of increasing the global supply of gold, basically adding already produced (borrowed) reserves onto the production/supply side of the scales."

I ask:

Is this a real effect, or an analyst's perception, as it seems NONE of the CB gold sales ever actually reached the open market? One can pontificate about how it displaced other sales, but I suspect that the covert sales of CB gold were specifically targeted to a customer who would never stoop to the "open market" anyway, and the PR effect was probably secondary. Until a single buyer is identified, my guess is as good as anyone else's, but in this era of "market transparency", why is the buyer NEVER identified? It is possibly as politically charged as the 9/11 airline puts.

2) Belgian submits that the differential between US and Euro fuel pump costs is significant. I have suggested for a long time that it is merely "ENRON accounting", as the lion's share of the gargantuan US budget is focused directly at maintenance of US oil dominance, i.e. 700+ bases in 130+ countries. Some will argue "other" reasons for this military proliferation, but one cannot logically remove oil from the top tier of that expensive list. US taxpayers pay for their gasoline mostly on April 15th, with pump prices appearing lower as a result.

3) Imagine, if you can, a $100 Billion investment in alternative energy R&D, and the geopolitical equilibria shifts resulting from commoditizing alternative energy. Using the commoditization model of the home PC, one could easily project the typical $40K installation cost of an energy independent home to drop to the $4K range in less than ten years, with MINIMAL maintenance or grid reliance - coupled with 10-20X improvements in the technology. Most of these systems already come with 20 years warrantees, suggesting that out-of-pocket costs are entirely front-loaded (Oooh, this will irk some grid-centric folks).

With all the admin's hot air about alternative energy, the Cheney-Anonymous "Energy Plan" still grants tax and research incentives to petroleum producers that are huge multiples of the allocations for all of the alternative energies inclusive, reducing their "alt energy" rant to "thermal atmospheric pollution".

Maybe the real "energy wars" are about nurturing the myopic "until the last drop is gone" mentality versus creating viable "home grown" alternatives before we reach real crisis proportions.

The gold-oil link seems to be strained by one-way flow of gold to oil sources. Shifts in energy mentality might ease this tension, as well.

masEuroNews#1357489/8/05; 19:47:39

Flip side of the story. Where's the money going to come from?

US President George W Bush has asked Congress for an extra 52 billion dollars to help the regions devastated by Hurricane Katrina.

It has wreaked havoc throughout the southern Gulf states, spanning an area half the size of France.

And forecasters are predicting more storms, such as Ophelia which is nearing Florida and Nate which passed south of Bermuda on Wednesday.

In New Orleans, 60 percent of which remains under water, the danger of floods has been replaced by the growing risk of fire.

The hurricane is estimated to have cost the US nearly 100 billion dollars, severely affecting oil production in the Gulf, and could significantly slow down the country's economy until reconstruction starts.

OvSMy repartee met quicksand.#1357499/8/05; 20:15:20

The defeated know not mercy.
A corollary for the gold pit:
May the managers of the dollar
and the gold"price" find a way
to make the transition to the
new International Monetary Sys.
gradually. If it should degrade
into chaos, they will know not
mercy. OvS

PRITCHOWhere's The Money Going To Come From ?#1357509/8/05; 20:16:34

@ mas - - Didn't you guys know? - -The Yanks have a secret weapon called "The Printing Press" AND they know better than most how to use it. Should be good for the POG ---but they also know how to manipulate the markets --and the POO --

It's become so oviously blatent -- I mean oil drops $6 over a few days at a time when at least 15% of the US oil
supply is submerged or adrift! It's such a crock & NO response from the major Media outlets. Nor for that matter from the minor outlets!

PRITCHOI Should Have Added - - - -#1357519/8/05; 20:20:01

There is NO HOPE until & unless ordinary Americans wake up & take to the streets. Guess that'll be a long time coming.
masShould have guessed#1357529/8/05; 21:48:48

Pritcho, yes you are right. Just print them, Barneke style? (Who will be taking AG's place in February?).
I was quite surprised to find out that they are actually going to close off the whole of NO to prevent any one from finding out? That's the clean up issue. Guess body count is something we shouldn't know?

GoldiloxKnow Not Mercy!#1357539/8/05; 23:29:30

@ OvS,

We're certainly seeing that already, but it will probably get worse.

McCanney describes the "new" New Orleans as a planned IMF international city run like Singapore. Out with the Old world, in with the New (World Order)! I bet TPTB are already staking out their coastal villas based on the new definition of "Eminent Domain".

He seems a lot more believable than most to me, because he describes "weather weapons" based on well known science and technology, instead of having to invent new physics and attribute it to the Japanese mob or Iranian Mullahs, neither of whom has anywhere near the resources or sophistication to "invent" a whole new branch of physics.

His radio show tonight contained a good explanation of why "scalar" weapons (whatever that means), hyper-dimensional hurricanes, etc, do not grock with known physics, but he still maintains that the hurricane patterns of the last two years completely violate every previous understanding of power and path.

Oh, by the way, the solar flare from yesterday is the fourth largest in 15 years of collecting data, and the X-ray and Proton counts are off the NOAA charts. Not a good day to be sun-bathing!

GoldendomePhysical Gold-Large- leaves the exchange.#1357549/9/05; 00:16:37

From Dan Norcini on the James Sinclair site, Thursday Sept. 8th:

...Some interesting doings in the September gold contract to note. Yes, Aunt Millie, there is a September gold contract although hardly anyone bothers to notice it. The only reason I make mention of it is because yesterday something quite interesting appeared to have taken place in there.

The open interest in the September surged an amazing 1001 contracts, bringing the total open interest to 1003. In other words, on the verge of contract expiration and with the delivery process in full swing, 1001 new long positions were initiated. It appears that HSBC was the group involved as they stopped (took possession of or stood for delivery of) the entire amount of open interest in that contract which was 1003 according to the exchange's information. At 100 ounces per contract, that is over 100,000 ounces of gold which at yesterday's price was valued at $44.6 million. For whom they stopped it and where it went is anyone's guess. Maybe an ETF or some private clients, but the fact is that it was taken. That is always a pleasure to see.

PRITCHOFrom Another Site - - -#1357559/9/05; 06:03:23

Date: Fri Sep 09 2005 02:28
(the vampire ) ID#24158:
must be INVITED into your house .. once he's
in .. you have a problem

-- - - - -- - - -- - - -
kinda scary isn't it?

PRITCHOThat Link -- - -#1357569/9/05; 06:05:40

Is a bit slow to load as an ad comes first -- not quite free internet :)
but worth waiting for.

Gandalf the WhiteThe US$ chart at the above LINK --- <;-)#1357579/9/05; 08:43:29

The "YOYO" mode has returned and the ESF Boyz are not having fun !

Caradoc@Gandalf#1357589/9/05; 08:58:54

They're having even less fun now than a few minutes ago, but I don't feel sorry for them. Thanks for the link!


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.FREE Gold Information Packet...#1357599/9/05; 12:09:09

mikalPresident's Working Group on Financial Markets and ESF(Exchange Stabilization Fund) info from Chris Powell #1357609/9/05; 12:30:13 2D4662%2DB157%2D13B33B17A4A7%7D&siteid=mktw&dist= To: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. Subject: [GATA] Peter Brimelow of CBSMarketWatch notes new Sprott report on market manipulation
Sprott's researchers connect the dots;
Report suggests U.S. market manipulation is for real
By Peter Brimelow Friday, September 9, 2005
NEW YORK -- A legendary bear may have turned bullish, sort of. But he and the authors of a remarkable new report still harbor suspicions something could end badly for investors.
Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell was artfully qualifying his sudden bullishness on Thursday night. He's just suggesting that "those willing to speculate" should buy Spyders, the S&P 500 tracking stock. And it may not work. (Russell played the 2003 bounce this way too.) Russell's also making bullish noises on gold. And his comment that really got my attention late Thursday was this: "You can be sure that the central banks don't want to see an upside breakout in gold. ... The primary trend of gold is bullish, however, and the primary trend is stronger than all the central banks in the world taken together. When gold's time comes, gold will brush by the manipulations of the central banks and their friends, the gold banks."
This suspicion of covert market manipulation by governments in alliance with favored private-sector firms has been voiced with increasing frequency by Russell and other letters. Indeed, several letters muttered about suspicious late-day rallies as detailed in our June 27, 2002, column. Of course, it's too wild an idea for most of the mainstream media. But now two respected figures in the Canadian investment industry, John Embry and Andrew Hepburn of Toronto's Sprott Asset Management, have published a report, "Move Over, Adam Smith: The Visible Hand of Uncle Sam." It pieces together from published sources evidence that points to the existence of the long-rumored "Plunge Protection Team," an informal group of U.S. government agencies, stock exchanges, and large Wall Street firms. (The report's downloadable from the firm's Web site: For starters, the Sprott reports quotes former Clinton adviser George Stephanopoulos apparently confirming the group's existence and revealing that the Federal Reserve directed large banks to prop up currency markets in the wake of the Long-Term Capital Management crisis in 1998. The last episode Sprott thinks it has definitely traced was before the U.S. invasion of Iraq in March 2003. A U.S.-Japanese agreement to intervene to prevent any financial crisis during the war was announced by a Japanese official, perhaps because the government intervention in markets is openly admitted in Japan. The U.S. never acknowledged such an accord.
Sprott doesn't necessarily oppose government intervention in
principle -- the apparent interventions after 9/11 or the 1987 crash, for instance -- but says such intervention requires "the most stringent safeguards and transparency."
Instead, Sprott asserts that "what apparently started as a stopgap measure may have morphed into a serious moral hazard situation, with market manipulation an endemic feature of the U.S. stock market."
All this raises two problems. First, possible corruption. As Sprott puts it: "There can be no doubt that the firms responsible for implementing government interventions enjoy an enviable position unavailable to other investors. Whether they have been indemnified against potential losses or simply made privy to government policy, the major Wall Street firms evidently responsible for preventing plunges no longer must compete on anywhere near a level playing field."
Second, there's the matter of ultimate breakdown. Says Sprott: "Displaying markedly low volatility, the Dow hovers comfortably above the 10,000 mark. Yet with severe trade and budget deficits, rising interest rates, and stubbornly high oil prices, the reasons to be bearish on U.S. equities are numerous. Strangely, the market has an uncanny ability to maintain its footing when serious declines threaten. ... This curious trading activity is suspicious to say the least." If that's right, economic reality may eventually intrude and, as Russell says, "brush by" the manipulators -- and the investors misled by them.
To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

TownCrierChina's Zhou sees further evolution of forex rate#1357619/9/05; 12:30:25


Sept 9 (Reuters) - Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the People's Bank of China, said on Friday...

"After the initial adjustment of 2 percent I think there will be no further adjustment, but the exchange rate level will move ... based on the floating mechanism," Zhou told a central banker round table in Calgary...

Noting that economic conditions in China were good for exchange rate reform, Zhou added: "After the initial reform, we are going to see further evolution of our exchange rate regime."

...said those changes could lessen the role of the central bank and of the basket of currencies currently being used.

...said China has to take steps to boost domestic demand.

^---(from url)---^

Winds of change. Add it up. Encouraging citizens to own physical gold is a helpful component of the balanced equation.


mikalCorrection to story below#1357629/9/05; 12:40:23

Several words were deleted in my cut and paste. The second sentence of the story should read: "But he and the authors of a remarkable new report still harbor suspicions ABOUT MARKET MANIPULATION- something THAT could end badly for investors." Thanks
TownCrierLonger-dated US Treasuries' prices rise, flattening curve#1357639/9/05; 12:47:24

NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices rose on Friday, especially longer-dated debt...

"We're slowly coming back to the pre-Katrina mind-set, which would be: The Fed's going to continue to tighten and inflation will not be a problem, even due to higher energy prices."

For now, that meant longer-dated Treasuries were rising in price, pushing yields down.

"A bit of a flattening trend has worked its way back into the market.

Benchmark 10-year notes rose 7/32 in price for a yield of 4.12 percent, down from 4.15 percent on Thursday. That yield move helped narrow the closely watched spread between two- and 10-year notes 1 basis point to 26.

Part of the movement at the long end of the market was a reflection of the benign long-term inflation outlook that would accompany any rise in short-term rates.

But buying was also buoyed by Asian buyers returning to the market this week...

^---(from url)----^

The "conundrum" continues to baffle the media and the traders...


TownCrierAnalyst touts possibility of $500 gold by year's end#1357649/9/05; 13:00:15

2005-09-09, SAN FRANCISCO (AFX) -- Gold futures looked poised to mark their seventh-consecutive winning session Friday, trading 1% above the week-ago level, with one analyst touting the possibility of $500 gold by the end of the year.

Gold futures prices may climb as much as 10% by year's end "if the economic conditions show further momentum, such as more employment gains are above 192,000 on average per month for the next two consecutive months," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service.

That would put gold at the $500 level, he said.

^---(from url)---^

For 2004, gold's average price was $409.25, up nearly 13 percent from 2003's average of $363.50 per ounce.

The average price for 2002 was $310.00, and the average 2001 price was $271.00 per ounce.

In percentage terms, yearly gains in average annual price for the past three years have been 14.4 percent, 17.3 percent, and 12.6 percent.

And from our current price level of $450, we continue to see, year on year, gold poised and doing its thing.

Additionally, the ten percent gains as predicted in this article, for the remaining 4 months of the year, are certainly nothing to sneeze at. Choose physical gold for your savings, you'll be glad you did.


GoldiloxMore Shakes - Magnitude 7.7 - NEW IRELAND REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA#1357659/9/05; 13:15:44

More shimmies in the South Pacific. Pretty good size, too.
GoldiloxMarket on Drugs?#1357669/9/05; 13:18:36


If there was ever a dandy time to see market manipulation in action it would be this morning. Not only did my friend, the gold trader here in L.A. call me to report that the markets were showing closed briefly, but that they would reopen at 8 AM local time - but out comes the horrible - and I mean horrible like the puke scenes in the movies horrible - consumer confidence number. 61.5 is a light year from year ago levels around 103.

Now, what would you think a market would do under the weight of such obvious and undeniable bad news? Rally? Last thought on my mind - but that's what happened following the announcement. Thus, Mr. Ure's suggestion that there be mass drug testing imposed at the NYSE - because that's the only answer other than outright manipulation at the fed window that seems to make sense to me. With this kind of mass delusion in place, a large-scale terrorist attack would surely send the market to new all time highs.


It must be the lumps they put in the mashed potatoes!

GoldiloxJust an aside . . .#1357679/9/05; 13:31:58

Speaking of "markets on drugs", I was in the engineering department at an up and coming computer company in the '90s when we merged with a competitor. After listening to the suits deliver their pep talks, I mumbled to a colleague that the Director of Mktg. from the acquired company should be tested for formaldehyde, as he already sounded dead!

An hour later I was called into my VP's office, assuming I was meat for my gran faux pas!

He proceeded to tell to me that a number of people heard my comments, and explained that it was really poor taste to interrupt the man's somber self-eulogy with such ribald truth.

I got the message, and the Marketing geek was gone in a week.

White HillsMarket on Drugs?#1357689/9/05; 13:47:04

The Market goes up the Market goes down. It does this because that is what the Market does not because of any particular reason but because the people who work ,invest and run the Market needs tnis up and down to make MONEY. To try and figure the market moves is to try and count the stars. The Market is like Las Vegas, they don't care who wins or loses but rather how how much money is bet (flucuations). Like Las Vegas the Market is a ZERO SUM GAME as it counts on new money coming in to pay the profits of the old money already there. Everytime somebody sells and makes a profit he is taking the money of some poor slob that just bought the stock. Go figure. White Hills
Chris PowellReply to 968's questions from the other day#1357699/9/05; 14:09:19

Here is a belated reply to 968's questions to me of the other day....

* What is the purpose of the gold price suppression, according to GATA?

Largely to protect the U.S. dollar and other government currencies. See Andrew Hepburn's summary of GATA's work here:

* How are the European central banks involved and why?

The European central banks are the direct sellers and lessors of gold, though it is likely that to some extent they are fronting for the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve through gold swaps and other mechanisms. Why are the European central banks involved? Probably to some extent the European central banks are bailing out the gold short positions of commercial European banks. Of course we've all read Belgian's intriguing speculations about the desire of the European central banks to facilitate a smooth transition to a world economic system based on something other than the dollar, with their gold sales and leases meant to prevent any abrupt changes along the way.

* How does GATA see gold in an evolution from a dollar reserve system to another reserve system?

GATA has no particular position on this. Some of its officers and consultants would support returning to a gold standard. Most of us probably would settle for the libertarian position of leaving nations and individuals completely free to use whatever they wanted as money -- dollars, euros, zlotys, casino chips, cattle, seashells, gold, silver -- and let the best money win. (We have a good idea which ones that would be.)

* What is the benefit for the U.S. (the dollar) of a suppressed gold price, and what is the benefit of a suppressed gold price for euro countries?

Gold is a competitive currency and so the gold price is the inverse of the dollar and other currencies. Suppressing the gold price and extending the reach of the dollar are central mechanisms of U.S. imperialism. The benefits of this to Europe are not clear to us.

* According to GATA, what did Wim Duisenberg mean when he said, "The euro is the first currency that severed its link to gold"?

It is an interesting statement but GATA has no position on it.

* Why did TPTB do everything in their power in 1980 to get the POG back down? Why couldn't they live with a high POG?

The Powers That Be did NOT do everything in their power in 1980 to get the gold price back down. Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker wrote in his memoirs that the U.S. government should have sold gold at that time but didn't. GATA believes that the need to control gold by sales and leases is the lesson the central banks drew from the U.S. inflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s. Again, gold being a competitive currency, governments and central banks don't want it increasing in value relative to their own currencies.

* How do TPTB manage the price of gold, according to GATA? Last time GATA stated that the price of gold was managed because of the rising level of derivatives on gold (cfr. BIS statistics). The time before that it was because European central banks were selling gold. Can you elaborate?

Gold sales and leases by central banks are public record and they are the primary mechanisms for controlling the gold price. They underwrite all the gold derivatives and insure the anti-gold speculations of large financial houses. GATA believes that most of the derivative positions in gold recorded at the BIS and MorganChase are actually more or less U.S. government and central bank positions.

* Why haven't gold producers created a similar cartel like OPEC?

GATA hardly could advocate another anti-trust violation. A better question is: Why haven't gold producers recognized and acted upon the aggression against them by central banks? The most likely answer is ignorance and fear of government, central banks, and big commercial banks. GATA admits that this fear is well-founded.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

OvSChris.P.#1357709/9/05; 15:10:51

Crispy, clear and concise.
Maybe you ought to give a
college-course on how to
do it? Well done. OvS

Topaz@Glox.#1357719/9/05; 15:23:44

Good to see someone else connecting the dots ...whilst Mr Norcini's take is imo somewhat askew, theres no doubt that HSBC clobbered Comex for 100K Oz of Metal yesterday and we wait (impatiently) for Todays trading update.

The 7.7 EQ in PNG was revised up from 7.3 and we've had some reverberations since.
Hopefully that'll be that for this Lunar Go-Round.

PoG really needs to get a leg-up to a new trading range of $475 - $480 if they're going to keep a lid on it, they can't keep throwing Metal at the inferno at this price for much longer one would think.

... We watch! ...

Chris PowellDennis Gartman goes for a black helicopter ride#1357729/9/05; 15:26:05

Latest GATA dispatch.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

TrumanOvS you're right, but#1357739/9/05; 15:36:18

it's easy to be concise when theres no substance. It's a bunch of empty calories with nothing that sticks to your ribs.

All we're being served by the gata gang is a rehash of the same hackneyed bug-headed sentiments that have been dished out for the past 30 years. All their spokes come from the same hub, and saying the US government has been keeping gold down just to keep the dollar up is simple to the extreme and as useless as being 180 degrees wrong. In fact the questions demonstrated way more insight than the answers did.

Chris PowellCollege course#1357749/9/05; 15:38:18

Thanks, OvS, for your compliment, but as for
teaching a college course, I would much
prefer to join you as skeptical if not
troublesome students in a course taught by
Belgian. We could follow him home and find
out who he really is and who he hangs out

GoldiloxLas Vegas?#1357759/9/05; 15:47:50

@Whire Hills,

"The Market is like Las Vegas, they don't care who wins or loses but rather how how much money is bet (flucuations)."

Since the house is a participant in most games, they definitely care who wins!

Your analogy is only true for Poker and PaiGow, but they make their real money on the slots.

MatthewHello#1357769/9/05; 15:57:45

Just to introduce myself on the forum. I have been lurking for about 8 months and look forward to joining the discussions.
It is reassuring to see free thought and speech in action.

GoldiloxCollege Course?#1357779/9/05; 16:04:33

@ OvS,

Your tongue-in-cheek suggestion about a "college course" rings true in so many areas that will never be given airtime because professors who dare question authority are "demonized" and sent packing.

The course I would like to see is how to successfully turn an S & L crisis ripoff into a political dynasty.

Or, as a science buff, maybe a course in "alternative views" in science and the people who have had their careers ruined for "daring to disagree" with current academic dogma.

We hear so much about "freedom" and "diversity", but bringing that attitude into the workplace, academia, or now days, even journalism, wins a quick ticket to obscurity and "blackball" status.

GeneTowncrier#1357789/9/05; 16:12:15

Randy, I believe where there's smoke there has got to be a little fire.All the conspiracy theories cannot be just empty thought.
1. Gold & silver price suppression.
2. Stock market manipulation.
3. Massaged CPI & PPI data.
4. Massaged unemployment data.
5. Off budget expenditures to hide more deficit spending.
6. And the latest on which I would like to hear your
comments. The Fed is printing money and buying
Treasuries thru front companies they have set up in
the Carribean to keep long interest rates down, thereby
giving the impression that inflation is a non event.
Anyone who believes inflation is a non event simply is an idiot or has not purchased anything lately.
I can see by your posts that you follow Treasuries closely.
What do you think? Nothing would surprise me about the goings on in gov't these days, which is why I'm buying some more gold come Monday. Regards, Gene

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Friday Market Excerpts

September 9 (from Reuters) -- Gold futures in New York ended higher on Friday, extending a rally that saw prices break through a key psychological level the day before. The yellow metal was poised for more gains next week, traders said, after breaking through $450 an ounce Thursday.

Strengthening demand and an upswing of technical buying should offset macro-economic factors like a pause in interest rate hikes and slippage in oil prices, they said.

"Gold is moving on its own momentum," said Paul McLeod, vice president of precious metals at Commerzbank.

"Today was a consolidation day before we push up again next week."

Prices got a lift from fund buying, and possible short covering and the appearance of new longs in the market.

Fundamentals also appeared solid, with an absence of central bank selling and seasonally strong demand expected from Indian jewelry buyers and Middle East investors.

COMEX December gold contracts settled up $2.30 at $453.00.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

GoldiloxJouralism in action#1357809/9/05; 16:31:30

MSNBC just announced that journalists will not be allowed to accompany the teams searching for bodies in New Orleans. I can "almost" understand the orders that no corpses be shown out of "reverence" for the dead, although hiding the victims of such carnage seems more like adding insult to their injury.

But allowing for that restriction, why are the journalists not even allowed to view the proceedings? Why do they always "try" to attract the suggestion of cover-up?

They scream "trust but verify" in dealings with other governments, but NEVER allow non-insider eyes to see anything they do!

The "double standard" is sickening.

The current story is that all jail detainees are being sent to maximum security prisons, no matter what they were detained for - as evidence and arrest paperwork is all under water and/or destroyed.

Waiting for a court appearance on a traffic warrant is now a maximum security crime requiring prison time unless someone can "find" your paperwork to process it.


GoldiloxDeath of Cash?#1357819/9/05; 16:39:58

An interesting story just crossed the screen. Both FEMA and the Red Cross are admitting their debit card issues have run into a sticky problem.

Many victims do not have local bank accounts (some maybe none at all), and due to federal restrictions, opening bank accounts require multiple forms of ID. FEMA has said that it will not hand out debit cards beyond the Houston Astrodome, but will instead use direct deposit to support registrants.

How will those who have lost ID or do not have a local bank account in their place of refuge be able to use this system?

Guess we'll need to implement that Federal RFID chip sooner rather than later.

From a perspective of gold, this will take it one step closer to full commoditization and further from its former status as "money".

OvSChris P.-- regards Belgian.#1357829/9/05; 16:41:59

Great idea. I'm downing a glass
and fill a spare one for inspira-
tion: A man slightly smaller than
average height, balding and on his
way getting a bit grey; spectacles
in goldframes sitting a bit low
on the nose; dark sparkling eyes
and a slight perpetual touch of
a smile that seems to convey that
he knows something most others do
not. The only time he takes off
his glasses is in the shower and
when he closely inspects his roses
in the garden. He even sleeps with
them on, usually falling asleep with
a book on his chest. When he awakens
at night and before he turns off the
lights, he takes a quick look in
one or the other closet just to bathe
and rejuvinate in the glow of his
He has not too many friends lives un-
pretentiously in a solid but cozy
brickhouse with a garden well kept.
His study is piled with paperwork but
he won't organize it because then he
wouldn't find things he can extract
with ease now stacked in heaps.
A likeable fellow; would make a great
drinking companion with late night
conversations not just about gold; he
is knowledgeable on many subjects.
Now let us go and find him, Chris.OvS

TownCrierGene, the Fed and Treasuries#1357839/9/05; 16:45:30

I don't KNOW about the Fed setting up and using Carribean-based "front companies" to buy Treasuries, but I certainly know they have been buying Treasuries (and "printing" money) directly. And to be sure, the Fed has been quite candid about this direct action, to cite my reports ov activity on Wednesday and Thursday as two recent examples.

However, I am disinclined to think that US officials (neither Fed nor Treasury) have been the agressive buyers of the long end (not responsible for the flattening curve phenonenon) because when tightness of supply in the 10-year market as associated with Chicago Board of Trade settlements precipitated investigations earlier this summer, many were left puzzled by the condition, and the Treasury vowed to consider creation of a special lending facility to counter any future squeeze on liquidity. The conclusion to be had from that experience and response is that the U.S. monetary officials are not wanting to see this degree of "strength" in the dollar as manifested in the current 'market' demand upon the long-dated bonds.

Given all that, plus the recent year-long pressure upon China for a currency revaluation, rather than your conclusion that the U.S. is working and trying to say "inflation is a non event", I am more inclined to conclude that the U.S. desperately WANTS to see a "therapeutic" level of dollar depreciation and price inflation take root. I further contend that it is through the devices of foreign parties that this "therapy" is being denied, thus forcing the whole system closer to conclusion that universal change is necessary and will happen. Goodbye to the last vestiges of Bretton Woods, and good riddance.


SundeckSilver's dream...and a request of Sir(??) Truman#1357849/9/05; 16:53:46

Mmmmm....interesting gold price action lately....contrasts with silver who seems to be content in her stately dream.


You said:

"All we're being served by the gata gang is a rehash of the same hackneyed bug-headed sentiments that have been dished out for the past 30 years. All their spokes come from the same hub, and saying the US government has been keeping gold down just to keep the dollar up is simple to the extreme and as useless as being 180 degrees wrong. In fact the questions demonstrated way more insight than the answers did."

Mmmm...perhaps so...although I might have chosen my words differently (and I do suspect that GATA's case has a little more substance than the one you describe).

GATA has contributed a great deal over the years...but, yes, it is difficult to get up each morn and throw a whole lot of choice revelations upon the far as I know, no-one in the world of financial-commentary does it...daily or weekly comentaries are usually a rehash or an extension of prior positions. I think GATA does a pretty good job with the resources at their disposal.

I have learned a lot from GATA over the years and freely admit that I have contributed relatively little in return...thanks GATA! Sure, GATA doesn't have all the answers to all the questions that can be conceived regarding Gold in the world of Money, but who does?

Perhaps Sir Truman could lavish we-of-the-forum with some insights...preferably "answers" not "quetions"...and help get us back on a "zero degrees" course again?

Thanks in advance...


Gandalf the WhiteWELCOME Sir Matthew !#1357859/9/05; 17:05:45

Matthew (9/9/05; 15:57:45MT - msg#: 135776
Thanks for joining in on the comversations !

BelgianCP / OvS#1357869/9/05; 17:35:36

@ CP : What makes you think/suspect that European banks are shorting/short gold...and WHY would/could this be the case ?

And allow me a second, non cryptic, question : Your interpretation of the ECB's MTM (marked to market) of its goldreserves.

@OvS : Pretty close mate...very close. LOL

YGMTruman (9/9/05; 15:36:18MT - msg#: 135773) GATA Comments#1357879/9/05; 17:53:33

Hackneyed Bug headed?...Spokes from the same hub?
...Doesn't sound like much of an intellectual rebuttal of facts & educated questioning and inspection. Now when some of those brilliant financial minds and experts of a lifetime in the Gold/Financial Markets speak, THAT'S worth listening to. In fact it's even worth travelling across a continent or an ocean to listen to the likes of Murphy, Embry, Lips, Schumacher, Howe, Turk and so many other with unquestionable credentials of, as I say, "A lifetime of involvement" in the world they feel needs inspection and exposure. Over 100 wealthy individuals just did so in Dawson City Yukon. How do your credentials measure up? Did you attend Gold Rush 21 to see what you might have learned? Disagreement can be debated, but to belittle or ridicule serves no purpose other than keeping ones mind in the dark. Thank goodness more & more credible and experienced financial thinkers are now realizing the reality of GATA claims, because they kept an open mind. Not all totally convinced yet perhaps, but keeping the door open nonetheless. As is said often, Knowledge is power, but you learn nothing from a closed book.....Regards...YGM

Chris PowellReplies to OvS, Truman, and Professor Belgian#1357889/9/05; 19:28:11

To OvS: This evening I have heartily toasted you and our academic quarry, Professor Belgian. But the idea of going back to school is starting to scare me a little. Somehow I'm reminded of the scene in "Animal House" where all the Delta guys have just been expelled and John Belushi falls back on the floor and sighs: "I can't believe it! Seven years of college down the drain!" Any more toasting tonight and I may feel like I am already back in school.

To Truman: Maybe I misconstrue you, but it is hard for me to believe that anyone at this forum really believes that the U.S. government and other governments have not been engaged in suppressing the gold price in favor of their own currencies. After all, for decades government formally set the gold price via the gold standard; in the 1960s the U.S. and British governments openly enforced an antiquated gold price via the London Gold Pool; former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker writes that the U.S. should have sought to tame the inflation monster and restore the dollar in the late 1970s by selling gold, signifying that the idea of rigging the gold price is far from new in official circles; in 1998 Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress that suppressing the gold price was the purpose of gold leasing by central banks; the Reserve Bank of Australia says that the only purpose for central banks to hold gold reserves these days is currency market intervention, and of course some central banks readily admit regularly intervening to defeat the currency markets; in 2003 Barrick Gold, defending its enormous gold hedging program, affirmed in federal court in New Orleans that the company is the agent of the central banks in the gold market; and the Washington Agreement is a proclamation of central bank management of the gold price. There's still more. But sure the only question here is the degree of manipulation, not the principle. Please consider the remarks posted at the link below. Sneering and walking away here is not exactly making an argument.

To Professor Belgian: You ask, "What makes you think/suspect that European banks are shorting/short gold, and WHY would/could this be the case?"

For starters, the Bank of England's massive gold sales, undertaken precisely at the bottom of the gold market, make no sense except as the rescue of some precarious short positions. A pretty good witness was prepared to attest to this if Reg Howe's lawsuit, underwritten by GATA, had been allowed to go to trial in U.S. District Court in Boston.

Why might banks have been shorting gold? Again, for starters, because it seems to have been for a long time the surest of the carry trades, a carry trade guaranteed by the central banks: borrow gold from governments at essentially no cost and sell it and use the proceeds to buy government bonds that pay substantial interest, thereby helping to depress the price of the metal that competes with government currencies while bringing interest
rates down and reducing government borrowing costs. There is a powerful government interest on both ends of that carry trade, and, while they had the gold, governments were in a position to see that no one who undertook it got into any trouble.

Chris PowellMissing link for Truman#1357899/9/05; 19:30:29

For the end of the previous message.
TopazMoral "Open Interest"#1357909/9/05; 20:06:46

...seems to be at at all-time high in the US at present with the high ground reverting to prayer en-masse and those (the Commercials) taking the other side of the trade <see Link> plumbing new depths.

We of the Gold Diaspora subscribe to the notion that Gold will only EVER reflect a strength or weakness in the Dollar?

Whereas we of the Free-Gold bent might not care to measure our Gold in Dollars, Euros or any somesuch numeraire.

SundeckCollege degree not the meal ticket it once was in the US...#1357919/9/05; 20:46:02

On the proposition that Chris Powell should further his education...

A timely article appeared in todays (weekend) Australian Financial Review on the declining "college wage premium" in the US.

Apparently real (average) earnings for workers with a bachelor's degree have declined for four straight years, by a total of 5%, since 2000...with no sign of change. The (average) pay of high-school graduates has eroded less rapidly.

Such a decline was last observed in the 1970s. ( that saying something??)

Reasons are unclear:

- outsourcing of skilled jobs to China and India??
- oversupply in recent years??
- technology getting simpler and easier to use with less need for higher qualifications???
- temporary hangover from the tech-bust??

The college wage premium is still up about 10% since 1994 (and average wages of college graduates are still well above average wages of high-school graduates), but if the decline continues then mums and dads may question the need for all that expense in sending junior to college...

...and Chris Powell may also wonder whether a degree is going to add another string to his bow after all.

;-) is simplistic to view education (of individuals and of a people) merely in wage terms...or to imagine that education and remuneration should always march in lock-step...but that is yet another complex question that probably doesn't belong on this forum...


Chris PowellBelgian's other question#1357929/9/05; 20:55:24

Professor Belgian also asked for my interpretation of the European Central Bank's MTM (marked-to-market procedure for its gold reserves.

I know Belgian makes a lot of this but is it really any more than an accounting device to induce the ECB's member states to think that the gold they contributed to the bank is in good hands because it is gaining value? I imagine that the United States could do this for its gold reserves too and use the gain in gold's value to offset losses elsewhere -- if the United States even cared anymore about how things add up and if any gold really still resides at Fort Knox. Or even if the gold doesn't reside there anymore, even if there's just a certificate from Barrick promising to dig up an equivalent amount of "deep storage" gold in 15 years. Who is to know the difference?

Whatever the significance of the ECB's marking its gold to market, it seems a little bit to the side of GATA's big interest, which is identifying surreptitious government intervention to defeat markets.

YGMGolden Challenge...One Gold Coin Each#1357939/9/05; 21:12:38

I'm sure the American Red Cross knows what to do with my cheque for the equivilent, of one Gold Maple. I hope all of you will do the same. The world is watching the horror and even adversarial nations are pitching in. Sad time indeed for so many once happy hearts of the South.
GoldiloxShort sales#1357949/9/05; 22:17:00

@ CP, Belgian,

In you interchange, I saw an interesting thought-block.

Belgian asked why CP thought CBs were "shorting gold", and the response was they might be selling gold to rescue other short parties.

Those don't seem equivalent to me. Using political collateral to rescue private shorts and shorting for some government motive are quite different, IMHO.

One is bad governement, the other corrupt government.

As to TC's response about the ESF in the Caribbean, though no "direct links" have been establshed, at least two Senators have openly asked Greenspan about the "mysterious" support for treasuries coming from unnamed sources in the Caribbean bank havens. Questions, but no answers. . . isn't it always this way?

Chris PowellReply to Goldilox#1357959/9/05; 22:42:10

Goldilox, GATA supposes that the central banks simply want gold shorted or at least seeming plentiful. To maximize that impression, the central banks would prefer that the gold be seen to be shorted by intermediaries rather than by the central banks themselves, though of course central banks are willing to sell gold directly if they have to, as the Bank of England did and as the European central banks continue to do.

GATA believes that most recent central bank gold sales have been simply the cancellation of leases of gold already sold into the market -- the bailing out of the shorts. Indeed, these shorts well not really be shorts at all, just brokers for the central banks, the real parties in interest.

Financial houses -- bullion banks -- are more than happy to become the agents of the central banks in the gold market and to join the gold price suppression scheme because it allows them to trade with inside knowledge of government policy, to trade knowing how much gold will be made available for dumping exactly when. With access to that much gold, the bullion banks can control the market, at least in the short term, on any particular day.

That the gold price is rising anyway is an indication that central bank reserves are being drained too fast and that the central banks are attempting a controlled retreat with the gold price.

Of course the central banks' use of intermediaries in the gold market this way is corrupt. That is among the conclusions of the recent Sprott report on manipulation of the equities markets; whenever the government works more or less surreptitiously through intermediaries, the intermediaries gain a huge advantage over other participants in the market.

But the government policy is completely consistent throughout; it is to suppress the gold price. Using intermediaries to provide camouflage for the government is simply one mechanism of that policy.

slingshotYGM#1357969/9/05; 23:36:45

Hello YGM,
I hold my silence till Gold Reaches $451.
The rest of you don't see this post ;0)

I will contribute in the coming months till the amount equals the spot price of gold at that time.
Fixed income is hell.

GoldiloxCB sales#1357979/10/05; 00:06:44

@ Chris,

Thanks for the reply, although I am not sure you really addressed my question.

Let me first say I greatly admire your work. The exposition of corruption is always difficult, given the disinformation, cover-up activity, and collusion of participants.

In saying that, I still maintain that the knowledge about the recipients of VN sales might very well tell us more than much of the spelunkering has so far revealed.

You quickly assume that the Bullion banks and other parties act as "agents" for the CBs.

Study of the origins of the FED, bankrolling of war efforts, and the open collusion of business magnets on both sides of major conflicts suggests the opposite may be more often be true.

My original comments were meant to suggest that the CBs (and often governments as well) regularly act as "agents" for these very powerful influences. Attributing the controlling interests is a very difficult task, but the option remains that the governments often act at the behest of powerful individuals, rather than the opposite and there is much historical record to support that.

GoldiloxCorrection#1357989/10/05; 00:09:30

That's "CB sales" not "VN sales". Sorry for the missed edit.
BelgianGold - goldprice -goldpricing manipulations...#1357999/10/05; 04:43:55

If I accidently understand it correctly...CP is unhappy with the PRESENT DEGREE OF GOLD MANIPULATION. They have been managing the gold affairs for decades, haven't they.

But it is exactly the ever rising degree of "management" of all things financial and monetary that is of utmost significance. WHY ...WHY, all the incredible exhuberance in derivatives (Trillions) ?

WHAT exactly is going to be solved when "the degree of manipulation" decreases...and in particular for gold ? But first, ask the question : Is it still possible to bring the GENERAL degree of manipulation back to normal ...and then, what is normal ? Will this happen because we all are going to start yelling...STOPPPPPPP !? A bit naive,no.

I found peace of mind, now that I discovered that the ECB's MTM thing (?) is simply a book-keeping fantasy to fool the system of european central banks. Oefff, is only a joke.
Now, the ESCBs can go on selling the remaining 12,000 tonnes of goldreserves and book it quarterly at the managed market price. How convenient. How magnificently trust-building.

And from now on...I'm only going to listen what the Aussi CB has to say on gold and ignore the Duisenberg (Dim Wim and his zeuro) yadayada.
CB goldreserves are an instrument to manage currency exchange rates...and an instrument to let some privileged protégés make money...and we (the CBs) only need a few grams (not tonnes) of it remaining in our vaults.
Keep on carry trading's free now !
Don't worry about making any mistakes...we bail you out, because w've half our stash of gold (32,000 minus 10/12,000 tonnes already gone) left to make you carry on.

The Belgian house, kitchen and garden professor : When a system lands finally in the environment of hyper-intervention...there is no way back out of it. The system has expanded its vast oceans of digits far beyond the tangibles that these digits are supposed to represent ! Simplier : There is an incredible load of digital units of account that never ever can buy "things" > tangibles !!!
And this systemic process keeps going on. And it is exactly here that the ECB/BIS complex has anticipated. Freegold means that gold can be priced freely again...NOT THE PAPER DERIVATIVE...BUT THE GOLDMETAL PHYSICALLY ! That is the WHY of the ever declining paper-gold volume at LBMA since it went public !!! In Dubai, they don't buy/sell papergold but the METAL. And Dubai is not a camel souk.
Two Billion Asians are not going to become westernized and accumulate more and more of the same digits that can't ever buy a thing (tangible)!

Some particular CBs know very well that the evolution of more debt to keep the political economy running, cannot go on for ever. That's what Duisenberg suggested. The Aussies (CB) says exactly the opposite. They remain (also) convinced that the manipulation/intervention is of supreme quality and will continue to support the system. Don't worry mates,...w've everything under control and we will manage to get out of this messy period. Right !?
Yeah, we know that you wish to expose our unhappy/unfortunate degree of manipulation...but trust us !

What if a growing (global) coalition sees a way out in having free priced gold as to guide the enormous/huge digit excess into the wealth metal and NOT into more and more of the same papers !? That's WHAT this MTM concept stands for...not to fool or satisfy banks with some candy...but to have a survival solution of the monetary (fiat) system on wich this modern globe thrives. A way to get back into the "natural" world of "real" things. Impossible with another gold-standard !

And once the dollar fades away...the whole globe will suddenly realize that all fiat ($-derivatives) are an illusion of value. That's WHY the euro architects wish their newly concepted fiat numeraire to become associated with the tangible of freegold.
The UST/FED cannot switch to this concept or lose the power/privilege of global monetary expansion. That's the WHY of UST-gold still fixed at $42/ anachronism...oh sorry, a book-keeping nescesaty.

CP, look again what happened in 1999 ! What an enormous amount of changes that took place on the pricing of euro-dollar-gold-oil-Dow-etc...
The sudden (and sustained) rise in $-POO, out of the blue...out of its 3 decades horizontal price-zone is "testing" the dollar's resiliance. At the same time, the volumes of papergold started their sustained to signal GET OUT OF PAPERGOLD AND PREPARE TO GO IN GOLDMETAL ! Sticking to the peak oil yada is of course the simpliest explanation for public consumption.
No wonder...the general public believes that price-inflation is being managed...papergold is perfectly hedging...($)debt is ($)money=($)wealth...and a moderate degree of intervention/manipulation is OK. But in Dubai, China, India...they GO INCREASINGLY PHYSICAL. They don't need professoral (or any other) theories. Their intuition has remained intackt. They want PRIVATE WEALTH...real wealth, and not a fabricated collectivist one under its many different forms. Oil doesn't want to price its black gold under a dollar-papergold-regime anymore. Repeat : THE LBMA VOLUMES CONTINUE TO DECLINE !!! Dubai continues to expand !!! you really, REALLY...believe that the globe will continue to accumulate UST-bonds that are permanently managed to lose purchasing power...IF ANY ! Yes, UST-bonds are still bought for the same strategic (pragmatic) reasons as CB-gold is committed (goldsales) !!! This is about the IMS transition that is proceeding.

And to end briefly : FREEGOLD is coming as to be able to continue living with currency !

Am going to feed my friends, Chris...the goldfish in my pond. Nice WE.

BelgianMonopoly#1358009/10/05; 06:51:04

The (globalizing) monetary expansion is such that it can easely (flawlessly) be compared with the Monopoly game : More paper-money (digits) in increasingly/huge excess of the amount of players and tangibles (goods/services).

All CBs and their states make this happen. NOT all CBs/states wish to victimize their hard working/saving citizens with their system that definitely has an end timeline.

What's the use of having more and more units of account at one's disposal if a smaller and smaller fraction of this digits pool can actually be exchanged for tangibles...that disproportionately rise in price (the deflablabla) !?

What is the real purchasing power of ALL this units ? Answer > ZERO ! Once that a smaller and smaller amount of these digit holders (bonds-stocks-etc) wish to exchange a smaller and smaller amount of thise digits into tangibles...we have instant hyper priceinflation. This isn't happening yet. But that does NOT mean that those Big holders of Big stashes of units of account realize that only a fraction of their excesses (reserves) can actually be transformed (exchanged) for a tangible ...that is purchasing power waterproof.

"Conservative" oil and Asian excess digits cannot be satisfied with the appropiate purchasing power consolidating tangibles. States and their CBs cannot go on expanding monetarilly when the system permanently has to produce ever more debt as to keep the global economy running (K.Richebacher).

Somebody (EMU) had to come up with a "solution" for this self destructive systemic (AA-$-IMS).
Here we have 2 opposing solutions : An AA gold-standard and EMU freegold.
This is the general idea behind my view, Chris. I do understand your views...but that didn't work for the past 7 decades. EMU doesn't want any "fixed (rigged) standard" anymore ! That's WHY the Duisenberg statement(s) (and many other) aren't interesting you. Probably because the concept is much too all embracing ?

The above is the reason WHY goldminers have permanently being plundered and the goldmetal is being distributed amongst the forming coalition of freegold willing. And taking freegold into consideration means automatically that one doubts that the $-IMS can be for ever.
But it are the actors of that very $-IMS who are the ones knowing very well that their system cannot live for ever.
Listen to Sir Alan. CBs stand ready...CBs are acting as if they live on a gold-standard...etc
Alan nor anyone else supporting/using the $-IMS is going to trumpet that the system (their system) is dying. And it speaks for itself that "they" wish to keep the/their system alive for as long as possible, doesn't it.

Does this mean that there is no alternative and that we all are going to sink to the bottom ? No it doesn't ! That's (practical)doom policy.

WHY does the $-IMS demands that Asian currencies revalue ?
Not so paradoxal when thinking deeply about this demand.
The growth/expansion of the globe's monetary pool is getting OUT OF CONTROL !!! That's life threathening to the system itself. That's a straith line to the freegold concept and undermining the existance/use of the $-IMS.

Exposing to the public what is really going on is NOT going to change anything to the inevitable process (The Change).
The world happens to be somewhat bigger than US (+ alies)borders. And, BTW...why would European banks wish to be a front for the US in managing gold !? Can you elaborate on this ?

Tomorrow's Bonanza might show more Asian cooks than cowboys ? This is not a static planet that can hold onto a status quo.

A global market that sees its tangibles increasingly being priced by a fast/faster growing paper-mollog...will stop and reverse in participating in this regime. All support will gradually fade away. Many on this forum have listed all the events that evidence this...if correctly interpreted of course. But that means that one steps out of the machinations of the paper-industry and makes efforts to get the Big picture. No need to have any degree for this. Common sense and critically considering the theories that don't add up.

Fact : Asia, the Middle East and Russia have more bilateral trade with Euroland, that has its trade balance on the plus,...than with the US wich has a systemic trade deficit.
Is this fact going to favor the US-$-IMS ad infinitum ? Or do these trading EU partners gradually favor the EMU concept ...including freegold ? Is this argument not interesting enough...than let's rush to another one.

Fact : Are the fast rising powers on this planet supporting/encouraging US-unilateralism or EU-multilateralism ? Bearing in mind that a currency is backed/associated with its state political styling.

What does all the analysis of gold derivatives mean against the above Big picture background ? Very, VERY little imo.
It is simply sticking to the machinations of paper setting the price of gold. And at the same time permanently running away from a PHYSICAL goldmarket. The dying $-IMS found its last refuge in the "paperization" concept. In Dubai (or Shangai and many other places), people just have a good laugh at paper (and its contracts). They never forgot how worthless a paper-contract is...always was. But with or without public exposure of the gold(and other)rigging...they, the ordinarry folks, can't beat the manipulative/interventionist system. They have to join it, like it,...realizing it, or not. But...

This is NOT the case for the Biggies who really know where that system is heading. And since they are part of the system...they are well placed to know...AND ACT UPON !
Nobody told me so, Chris...but when sitting on my pond, watching goldfish (my friends)...I use the scarce intelligency and logic deduction capacities that were given to me. I don't wish to be interested in very selective elements that don't make things add up, simply for the sake of having a theory. I have not much time left to waste on wrong ideas/insights. If ever in Belgium, don't hesitate to call me and have a few drinks overhere. A house with an open door for all of good will.

I recognize, after having thought (illusion) for 20 years that I understood gold, that something MUCH bigger has been going on during the past 3 decades. It didn't cause a shock but rather a challenge to find out why I was so terribly naive during all these long years. I wan't even confused during that (blind) period.

And it is exactly here that many, most (if not all) disagree with my (flexible) conclusions. You (GATA & C°) included of course. That's why you (sneeringly) call me professor and you keep on talking to me as a "suspect". VERY funny.

Anyway, back to the Big gold picture : Many goldobservers can read/translate the fundamentals behind chart patterns.
I have such a 35 years $-POG chart in front of me (not the only one of course). Whilst communicating my theories (or whatever you may call it), I do constantly watch the 35 years old pattern (picture). This whole picture IS ONE BIG FRAUD ! This price-pattern doesn't ad up !!! This is "THE" (infamous) gold-standard that Alan mentioned. And this big fraud has come to an end. I communicate the fundamentals (imo) behind it. In your answers on the seems...that you are quite uninterested where gold might go and under wich (new) regime it might start a new life. Bizar, no.
Maybe it would be interesting to hear some more projections on gold's future price - pricing. New or more of the same old.

overtonformer treasury secretary Paul O'Neill to be interviewed#1358019/10/05; 07:39:15

on bob brinkers show this afternoon............if you can't pick on radio try kfnn out of arizona..............add the w's
968@ Towncrier#1358029/10/05; 08:00:13

Hello Randy,

I (and I think the entire forum) would like to hear your interpretation of a MTM system for goldreserves also.

Please share it with us (when time allows).

Thanks in advance !

Belgianpart III#1358039/10/05; 08:53:59

35 Years of goldprice freezing is a huge-big (systemic) fraud. Today's goldprice $440 has remained quasi unchanged as an average for the past 3 decades...whilst its purchasing power was permanently reduced.

During this 35 years, the Big Fraud was possible thanks to an organized (and agreed upon) fraudulent gold-pricing mechanism (the paperization saga).

Now it is not the time to wish for moderation of the fraude...decline in intervention...a little less manipulation. IT'S TOO LATE FOR THAT !!! The change is in and the old gold-pricing mechanism is gradually breaking up.

Papergold can never be named/labelled as being in a bull-market ! Ever seen paper bulls ? Those who make a paper profit on the goldprice rise (at the expense of those who make the losses)...are stuck again with more of the same paper (units of account) as before. How can all these profit makers ever buy goldmetal (in possession) with these goldpaper profits ? They can NOT. Not for even a fraction of these so called profits. This for as long as the goldprice remains tied up/in with the $-exchange rate (or USDX). Buying goldmetal in possession and raise the price of PHYSICAL gold is as much as pushing the exchange rate of the dollar down !
Trying to obtain a lower degree of (paper)goldprice is nothing going to change on the Biggest fraud of all >>> THE GOLDPRICING ATTACHED TO THE DOLLAR.

That's WHY the pro gold coalition wants the change/transition from the old $-papergold market to a PHYSICAL gold market. That's WHY the European banks' cooperation/support of the fraudulent gold-pricing IS CONCEPTED AS A DOUBLE EDGED SWORD. Let's make the goldprice/pricing fraud soooooo Big and blatant, that it becomes totally impossible to hedge the dollar's permanent losses in purchasing power in the designed $-paper gold market ! Bastards !

WHY support the $-IMS any further with goldprice/pricing fraud...if one's dollar stashes continiously increase and the purchasing power of these stashes permanently declines !? Are all those dollar (reserve) accumulators
complete idiots and stubbornly continue to get out of this system and cooperate on the transition into another monetary regime (a golden one) ? Are the Swiss, Brits, Eurolanders, Asians, Middle Easterners, Russians... dwarfs/trolls ? Even bancrupt Argentina restarted

That's WHAT I mean...THE CHANGE IS IN ! Not a little bit of change but a dramatic one...soon becoming much more visible in sharp contrast with the Big fraude of the past 35 years.

The separation of paper market from physical market is not a new fenomenon. The hyper securitization (paperization) trend of the past decade has its historic analogs. Euroland learned from its Weimar period and has put the fundamentals in place for not going through it a second time. Is Euroland being ridiculed by the East ? Not in my knowledge. Is that significant ? Bet it is.

If the $-IMS wants to avoid that a physical gold market continues to replace the $-papergold-market, it has to put its house in order and tackle the (systemic) deficits as to dramatically reduce exhuberant $-expansion. Can this still happen ? NO, it can NOT !
Therefore the very nature of the old gold market will continue to transition as the Rothshields already subtly announced ! They already left the sinking ship and are not waiting for a bail out. They actually never did wait for anything without the perfect anticipation. They even took LBMA public after all those decades of fraudulent anonymity.
And look at what you see there >>> The $-paper-gold market is CONTINIOUSLY shrinking. Significant ? Bet it is !

And against this background...who can possibly continue to state that Euro gold-commitments are ONLY a continuation of the Big gold fraud and not the early indications of a dramatic change in the old gold market ?

The old and loyal supporters of the dollar regime cannot put any condition for their support anymore. They have to leave the $-debt-berg house ($-IMS). Let's say adieu to a good friend in a descent way showing our gratitude for what "was" (prosperity).

Regards from the Belgian eternal student.

BelgianThe other BIG fraud...#1358049/10/05; 09:38:54

IRs constantly declining during 25 years (2 1/2 decades) since their THs at 1980 !!!

Whilst the entire planet was flooded with easy Al debt-dollars,...those dollars of the $-IMS,...the dollar accumulators experienced 25 years of IR decline AND 25 years of dollar purchasing power !!! Holy cow, what a great monetary system...what a fine "MARKET ECONOMY".

But the system brought plenty of prosperity for the Western hemisphere. And so far, all is well in this house.

We will NOT see exhuberant high IRs for any considerable time anymore ! The system CANNOT be "repaired" with the old Volcker remedies. TOO LATE !
On the contrary...low IRs are $-system supportive ! That's WHY the ECB has NOW the luxury of being able to decide on its own IR policies without having to support the $-IMS per sé. Think MTM.
This growing independance of EU/EMU policies from the former EU/US coalition IS the alternative being build on and presented to the coalition. Think Euro gold commitments.

During those 25 years of IR-$ and goldprice frauds, the planet was not simply swallowing this as evident cake. That's what the 1999 dramatic turn was all about. Basta with the dollar regime and its frauds.

Euroland has already accepted publicly that oilprices are going to remain high (north of $60) and can't go but higher. This leads to oil/gas for euro in a soft and relatively smooth fashion.
(think Iran and the pending solution for Irak). And there are some other revelations to the general public in the pipeline (more on this later).

The real conondrum about IRs is not the rate inversion, but the effects that this 25 years of IR fraud had on the $-IMS...its users and supporters. Ask the Japanese what it (their collusion) will bring them after 25 years of rising out of their WWII ashes. A not so bright future regardless of the endless spin that is produced en masse.

There is NO correlation between the goldprice and IRs anymore ! Because the goldpricing is changing. Idem dito for the 3 decades old correlation between $-POO and $-POG. Those links are definitely broken and the extremes of today only say how bad the effects of the inimagineable interventions actually are. No drama but a transition going on as smooth as possible.

Sure, the main managers of the monetary system will try to do their best in reducing the visibility of these extremes >>> Is all included in a good management. But what "was" a good management is now an ever growing "fraud" that manages the hiding of the drama for the public's eye. Might even include another ridiculous price of $500/$600 for an ounce of precious.

Druid@Belgian#1358059/10/05; 09:40:11

Druid: Belgian, thanks.
NedThanks Overton#1358069/10/05; 10:12:46

Looks like 3-6pm Arizona time (mountain?). Could be interesting. Anyone read "Price of Loyalty"? I've walked by it a dozen times at the bookstore, always wanted to get it but expensive. Recommendations?

Just checked the 'Listen Live' link, Real Estate show just started.....9-10am local Brinker on at 6:00pm eastern.



Sept. 9, 2005 ? U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez today announced a formal determination of a fishery failure in the Gulf of Mexico due to the devastation following Hurricane Katrina. The affected area includes the Florida Keys and from Pensacola, Fla., to the Texas border.

The determination came in response to a virtual fishery shutdown in the affected states due to major flooding, damage to fishing boats and fishing ports, waterways clogged with debris and closed processing facilities.

"We are taking action now because of the significant economic effects of Hurricane Katrina on fishing communities in the Gulf of Mexico," Secretary Gutierrez said. "Major commercial fisheries in the Gulf of Mexico include fin fish, shrimp and oysters, with an estimated value of almost $700 million per year."

Although the extent of the damage to Gulf fishing industries is not yet known, fishing in the region has been essentially halted. NOAA will work with the states to assess damage to the 15 major fishing ports and the 177 seafood processing facilities in Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana. Based on preliminary estimates, there are 432 federally permitted fishing vessels in Alabama; 3,738 in Florida; 1,033 in Louisiana, and 351 in Mississippi. Additional fishermen hold state permits.

The action was made through provisions of the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, which makes federal relief funds available to assess the impacts, restore the fisheries, prevent future failure, and assist fishing communities' recovery efforts after a natural disaster, and the Inter-jurisdictional Act, which makes funds available for direct assistance to fishermen to alleviate harm resulting from a natural disaster.


More of the "economic effects" surfacing.

Goldiloxmore "fishing" tales#1358089/10/05; 10:32:08

Just after posting the woes of the Gulf fishing industry, I moseyed on over to McCanney's site and caught a surprise. He has posted a "photo op" of GB I and II displaying their "catch" from the NO flooded streets - with refugees in the background still wading through waist-high waters.

A Photoshop "prize" for the new WH chef?

CometoseGOLD, Dollar, OIL GAS#1358099/10/05; 10:33:52

Cometose (gasoline and it's inverse relationship to the dollar) ID#139260:
Copyright © 2002 Cometose/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
There's been quite a bit said about GOld and its inverse relationship to the dollar...

I've been thinking some about the diverse circumsances and their probable affect on the price of gasoline . One of my insights about this scenario is that because the DOLLAR is the reserve currency of the world and because the dollar is the currency all must use to buy their oil ...
If the dollar falls and other currencies rise,
the dollar price of OIL WILL RISE based on GLOBAL OIL producers wish to not let the irresponsible FED POLICIES affect their bottom line...profit in value....As long as oil is priced in dollars.....therefore, if the value of the dollar increases it should reflect in lower prices in dollar terms and if the dollar falls in value the price of oil in dollar terms would increase if all other things are equal ....which they are not with the case being that we are at MATT SIMMONS peak oil ......and therefore there is increasing demand coming on globally from emerging economies such as India and CHina at the same time as we are facing declining GLOBAL SUPPLY....These two circumstances on their own will cause upward pressure on the price of oil and therefor gasoline.......THis has become very apparent in the real world in recent weeks...with the dollar residing at between 87.5 and 90 for a period of some months....

On a side note .....the Fed is in a peculiar place now ...for the following reasons......
the domestic economy runs on energy and some say to a vastly reduced fraction of its former diet ( energy ) 25 years ago .....However Utilities , Transportation and COMPUTERS all drive the ENERGY CONSUMING FURNACE as well as other industries.. but Transportation is vital to the rest of the economy per getting finished products to market....and this per Matt Simmons is the most taxing ineffecient waste and argument against global trade at this point in the ENergy Cycle we are exposed to....This component also affects the consumer side of the equation the disposable income of the consumer to spend and therefor to stimulate the economy is directly affected by amounts that must be diverted to ENERGY ( utility costs ) and GASOLINE...away from disposable spendable income.

If the interest rates fall , the dollar weakens . WHen this weakening takes place it will be directly reflected in rising gas prices ( via OPEC PRICING mechanism ) . If prices continue to rise will affect the consumer and the other inustry groups mentioned and shut down the economy or cause massive inflation to occur which will shut down the consumer end of the spectrum which will cause a recession ....which usually causes the fed to loosen more ....which causes a weaker dollar which will cause the price of gas to rise further....

If the fed tightens to continue to strengthen the dollar so we continue to have players supporting our bond markets, so our politicians can continue spending like drunken sailors....while the world stands by in attentive observation ..../eventually the bond market starts to tank.....This causes the Mortgage backed securities industry to sagalagalot.... ( this is the securities industry today ) . This eventually causes the mortgage markets and real estate markets and the Consumer Credit markets to tank eventually robbing the consumer of his LINE OF CREDIT TO SPEND and stimulate the economy..THis causes the Economy to go into recession all other things being equal ....BUt all other things are not equal....
THE GOV"T hacks in washington continue to spend like drunken sailors with the rest of the world watching and this causes the rest of the world to want to curb it's purchases of US DEBT SECURITIES.....which is what they are doing ...

So along comes some saavy well heeled CARRIBEAN OFFSHORE BANKING GROUP just TIMELY ON THE SCENE to begin buying all these unwanted DEBT SECURITIES to buy up the SLACK ...THEY SEEM TO HAVE UNLIMITED BUYING POWER .....SO they buy to maintain the status quo.....
THE REST OF THE WORLD IS NOT FOOLED ...because eventually they know this game will fold on itself ; and unlimited printing of US DOLLARS is inflationary , so they continue to hedge their bets by buying gold....big time...
THis would ordinarily cause the price of gold to GO UP all other things being equal .....but all other things are not equal .....BUDDY BANKER CB GROUPS have been colluding with the US FED to sell their GOLD RESERVES and derivitives into the market ( of which there is a limited supply ) and this has been keeping the price of gold from escaping their grasp as it did heretofor in the LONDON GOLD POOL DAYS...........
So the price of gold has not moved more vigorously than it possibly should have....

WHen the CB's run out of gold , the imbalances caused by the fed shall be manifest GOLD RUNS.....

DURING times as these it would seem that RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS OF currencies like the dollar are switched with the emergence and growth of other ECONOMIES MORE representative of strength, growth and domination ......China comes to mind...THe EURO WAS devised and backed by gold to serve as an alternative to the dollar...On a global level therefor we seem to be in dollar waning mode and EURO WAXING MODE.....

THe more the FED raises the interest rate to accomodate these conditions the more damage is likely to be done to the domestic economy .....and eventually the fed will be forced to quit fighting this MEGA GLOBAL TREND ..and the dollar will wane and sink on the horizon .... THE SPECIFIC timing of this scenario can't be known......but its' consequences to us here domestically in it's ramifications regaring energy costs and the PRICE OF GASOLINE ......could be severe.......

WARREN BUFFET , GEORGE SOROS , and others have placed huge bets against the DOLLAR... ( WARREN's Dollar short 20 billion ) .

It is my bet that the FED will try to keep the value of the dollar up as long as possible but that in a WORLD which becomes less dollar concentric by the day , it's attempts will fail..

Continuing increased GLOBAL DEMAND in the face of depleting supply will cause UPWARD PRESSURE to continue forcing OIL PRICES HIGHER....
If the dollar collapses in this context GAS PRICES GO INTO THE STRATOSPHERE .....and probably the inflation caused by this will be reflected in a GOLD SPIKE..

We would assume that gas prices rising on the falling dollar will eventually cause the economy to shut down ..........this would eventually cause supply disruptions in oil itself because of TRANSPORTATION DISRUPTIONS if the GOV"T didn't intercede....

If all things were equal in the face of these troubles ....with dropping demand of oil due to unaffordable prices here domestically , eventually the price rise would have to abate...
but all things are not equal because there is a big world outside the US that needs this FUEL as well and their demand will continue to rise and supply will move more in the direction of the FAR EAST which combined with the continuing manifestation of peak oil might keep our prices domestically rising or stabilizing at unprecedented levels ......until renewable forms of energy and alternative energy technologies fill the gap....

I would expect gas prices north of $5.00 in the new year ....for starters and I am planning my future accordingly...

GoldiloxSpeaking of Radio#1358109/10/05; 10:36:59

Returning from his own sailing and fishing adventures, Jim Puplava has posted interviews with authors Michael Economides (The Color of Oil) and Bloomberg's Caroline Baum (Just What I Said) for today's audio "catch".
Cometosefuther conclusion#1358119/10/05; 10:39:38

THe fed has more leverage to increase geometrically consumers ability to draw on their HOUSING ATM through lowering rates and therefor keep economy chugalugging in the face of sacrificing (heaping on the consumer's tab) the opportunity cost of higher energy and gasoline prices.

mikalClinton promotes "new economy"#1358129/10/05; 11:04:05

US and China Should Break the 'Old Economy' - Clinton
By John Liu - Hangzhou - 09/10/05 - INTERFAX-CHINA - Excerpt: "Former US President Bill Clinton has said that China had no choice but to develop renewable sources of energy, claiming that if new alternatives were not found to traditional modes of economic growth, international conflicts over scarce resources would become increasingly likely.
Clinton, attending the China Internet Summit at the West Lake, organized by the e-commerce portal Alibaba in the coastal resort city of Hangzhou, noted that in an "interdependent" world, growing nations such as China and India had to find a way of breaking out of the "old economy". However, changing those old patterns was difficult, he noted, because the traditional energy economy based on oil, gas and coal is well-financed and has strong political backing. "That's why President Bush hasn't changed [the US's energy policies], because he came out of the old economy," Clinton said.
The former President also criticized the way the present US administration fought so hard to repel the bid for California-based Unocal by the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). "We can't expect US investors to be welcome in China if Chinese investors are not welcome in the US," he said. "I thought the whole thing was silly.""
Mikal- Too bad Clinton didn't talk up the U.S. need for the same "renewable sources of energy". Does he expect China to grow THAT fast?
And what of "US investors" expected "to be welcome in China if Chinese invesors are not welcome in the US"? They can always follow, albeit tardily, the lead of Russia, Vietnam, Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Burma, Thailand, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and other understated exporters(of commodities, textiles, technology and trinkets)- parties in the big picture in the dash for gold vs revocable paperdollar promises.

BelgianCB gold reserves#1358139/10/05; 11:39:48

The globe's two major CBs have changed " THE STATUS " of their gold : ECB shifted to fixed goldprice (by the former NBs) to MTM and the FED shifted from UST-gold to custodial/deep storage gold.

The fact that both CBs (ECB/FED) as allied banks chose to change the status of their gold in a different way, is already significant as to detect the ongoing/evolving changes.
How can both "different" changes possibly serve the "same" purpose of freezing the goldprice ??? Answer : It can't and they (the changes) don't.

I refuse to ignore this fact...label it as uninteresting.

Why would deep storage gold be used (or needed) to siphon Barrick's underground gold to the market as to support the $-IMS ? To mobilize other states' gold...there was no change of UST gold-status.
Why has the IMF gold status not been changed for the same purposes...if FED and ECB apparently (GATA) agreed to change the status of their goldreserves to provide gold liquidity ? Thoughts.

GoldiloxClinton on renewables#1358149/10/05; 11:54:32

"Mikal- Too bad Clinton didn't talk up the U.S. need for the same "renewable sources of energy". Does he expect China to grow THAT fast?"

It's not like Wild Bill doesn't know which side his bread is buttered on!

Drop it "buttered side down" and it wrecks the sandwich.

If you drop it "buttered side up", you can brush a little dirt off and enjoy!

mikalGold infant draws adulation from afar#1358159/10/05; 12:04:21

Midas Report - Bill Murphy - 09/09/05
Yesterday's edition of Midas contained this report
on the Gartman Letter(TGL), formerly a leading nemesis
of gold, by diligent John Brimelow(brother of Marketwatch's Peter Brimelow)- Excerpt: "The explanation for the sudden burst of activity was probably supplied by the abrupt decision of The Gartman Letter to increase its gold holdings yesterday morning. A large part of the utility of this service is the insight it provides into the intentions of certain large traders: as with the breakout in Euro gold, it looks as if TGL was aware action was pending.
Today, Gartman appears confident and cheerful about his gold holdings:
This is a bull market and we have remained steadfastly bullish. We see this correction as much needed and health-restoring in nature. A close upward through EUR 360 would be very impressive indeed." (It did: E361.50.)
"a weekly close above $448 in US dollar terms would be most supportive of gold's bullish trend, and would cause (us) to add to our long positions. Thus, should spot gold close above $448 today we shall do exactly that: we shall buy another unit of gold in US dollar terms and shall add it to our position. If we have to pay above $450 for it, that would be allthe better."
Spot closed at $448.50.
Greatly to the astonishment of the more radical element of gold's friends, Gartman cheerfully observed:
"For a very brief moment yesterday, spot gold traded to $448 before being turned back. We can never be certain who the sellers were at that level. GATA would have us believe that it was the always nefarious government and Wall Street entities who work in collusion to try to keep the price of gold down…we might be persuaded that some small part of what GATA has said may even have an even smaller kernel of truth to it, for their data is persuasive."(JB emphasis.)
Since Gartman has always been vociferous in deriding this school of thought, this is a dramatic development – admitting it displays much integrity.
It also implies that the group of powerful buyers with whom he moves know what they may be facing. This makes their entry a far more formidable development – they could well prove unusually tenacious."

I'll only add an old maxim or two- 'What goes around comes around.' and 'The more things change, the more they stay the same.'
And most important of all, on the current and former ambivalent and irresolute like myself, a humble serving of the wisdom of the ages- 'Different strokes for different folks.', 'It takes all kinds to make a world.', 'Do your own thing.' and 'One man's meat is another man's derivative(poison).'

Belgian@ Mikal / Goldi#1358169/10/05; 12:07:36

Clinton ...suggesting 2 Billion people (China + India) to adopt a "new economy" based on renewable energy...whilst the US superpower is having a global war for oil/gas-control. Sounds as familiar as...I had no sex with that women...
I suspect that the Asians will have...LOL...LOL ! Jesus.

Goldi : Katrina and political economy. Another disaster falling on a population with no savings, no reserves ! Bring in B.Bernanke (wich was already done) and send the helicopters. Feed the deficits.

New question to all : How much can the goldprice rise without affecting the dollar's exchange rate...reserve status ?

GoldiloxOne man's meat#1358179/10/05; 12:17:59

@ mikal,

'One man's meat is another man's derivative(poison).'

And as is true in both apartments and markets -

"One man's ceiling is another man's floor" - Paul Simon

Liberty HeadFrom Ashes To Ashes#1358189/10/05; 12:43:33

Court upholds detention without trial for U.S. Citizens

Note : The decision by a three-judge panel was written by Judge J. Michael Luttig, who sources have said is under consideration by President Bush for nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court.

The Constitution arose from the ashes of fascism.

Best Wishes

Caradocgreat chart by Dan Norcini#1358199/10/05; 12:45:03

Norcini's chart on Sinclair's website was a great excuse for me to send the following email to various friends, relatives, in-laws, and outlaws. Since some of these have not yet invested in gold (and share my DNA for being bullheaded!), I tried to be lowkey, not pushy, and I refrained from predicting a price of $1,642 worth of 1995 dollars.

*******text follows*******

In autumn of 2003, I sent most of you a ten-year chart of gold price showing a partially completed "handle and cup" pattern which -- if completed -- would take gold to $400 per ounce and mark the point where it would be likely to begin a fairly large move (approximately the height of the "cup") in one direction or the other. If you'll look at the chart below, you'll see the direction was "up" and it has so far moved about 1/2 of the height of the cup. Completing the height of the cup would take gold to ~$500 per ounce. More importantly (as indicated by Dan's note on the chart linked above), even going as high as $460 would break past the 20-year channel of upper and lower limits that has contained gold since 1985, indicating that a major move upward will follow. My hunch is that it'll take 6 or 7 years for it to reach whatever number it goes to.

*****end of text*****

Hope I wasn't too lowkey.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A world of gold at your fingertips...#1358209/10/05; 13:31:13">gold -- a global calling card
TownCrier968, requesting my "interpretation of a MTM system for goldreserves"#1358219/10/05; 13:49:12

Thank you! It's one of my favorite topics as it is the single most significant and exciting development within the field of gold and money -- not just during these latest three decades, but I would venture over the history of the modern world.

A college football game and B-B-Q is going to eat up much of my productive Saturday, so I'll get back with you tomorrow, and hope to include an assessment of McCauley for you, too.


DruidCaradoc (9/10/05; 12:45:03MT - msg#: 135819)#1358229/10/05; 14:34:29

"Norcini's chart on Sinclair's website was a great excuse for me to send the following email to various friends, relatives, in-laws, and outlaws. Since some of these have not yet invested in gold (and share my DNA for being bullheaded!), I tried to be lowkey, not pushy, and I refrained from predicting a price of $1,642 worth of 1995 dollars."

Druid: Sir Caradoc, it's this kind of managed price prediction that makes me cringe when I come across it and many others. It makes me wonder why CB's don't make a variety of different coffee choices from Starbucks apart of their porfolios because in terms of price per cup they will be much more "valuable" then an oz. of gold. I'm looking for an ounce of gold to reflect, rectify, consolidate and converge all the mysticism and stupidity that is sold for wealth and value in our paper markets and physical economy. A price of $1,600+ an oz. won't even pass a giggle test.

Chris PowellWill any of us live long enough to see the system change?#1358239/10/05; 14:43:15

Some replies to Goldilox and Belgian....

Goldilox: Yes, the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and Wall Street financial houses are all constituted by the same sort of people, and the revolving door between them operates constantly. Still, as a matter of law the power lies with the government, and it is theoretically possible for the government to act in an interest other than that of the financial houses. Hence, the financial houses act as the government's agents.

Belgian: Where does one begin after all your efforts of today?

You say that the ECB's regularly marking its gold reserves to a market price is hugely meaningful. Maybe it is; forgive me for not appreciating it. For it hardly matters to me what the ECB (or the Treasury Department) should list as the value of its gold reserves; what matters to me is what the central bank considers the purpose of holding gold reserves and what the bank proposes to DO with them. And as far as I can see, the ECB and its member banks continue to dishoard their gold reserves and thus to continue to facilitate the suppression of the gold price, no matter how much they may be contemplating a free-market gold price at some point in the future. So why should I be favorably impressed? Maybe this forum really isn't college; maybe it's only first grade. But I am among the students you are stuck with here.

You write: "There is an incredible load of digital units of account that never, ever can buy things -- tangibles." Yes, this is perfectly agreed to. Agreed also that the world shouldn't go on forever being the slave of the ridiculously expansive U.S. dollar, that it is crazy for the world to keep trading real goods for U.S. government debt instruments that can never be repaid except with more debt instruments. But if there is some timetable for departure from the dollar system, it seems awfully vague and slow. Will any of us at this forum live long enough to see its completion? Any country could have stopped taking U.S. government debt and could have started requiring payment in gold or something else long before now. If the current system is, as most at this forum probably agree, an injustice, those who are wronged by it have a right to ask when it will be ended, as well as a right to the end itself. My sense is that the central banks of the world know very well how the world is being exploited by U.S. profligacy and arrogance but are taking only the smallest and most tentative steps away from the dollar system, those steps consisting mainly of not buying quite as many treasury bonds as they could, but still more than they bought last month. This seems not to have scared the U.S. into even slightly more responsible behavior. For example, the $52 billion appropriated by Congress last week for hurricane relief was entirely deficit spending, and why not? The foreigners are paying for the Iraq war, so why won't they pay for the hurricane disaster too?

You write: "The public believes that price inflation is being managed ... paper gold is perfectly hedging." Let me challenge this. The American public has no conception of paper gold but it HAS begun to sense that the government's inflation figures are phony, vastly understating inflation. The investment community HAS begun to remark on the extreme imbalance of the gold/oil price ratio. And surely the gold community has long since stopped believing that paper gold has been adequately hedging against currency depreciation.

You write: "Exposing to the public what is really going on is NOT going to change anything to the inevitable process." Maybe some particular outcome is inevitable, but couldn't exposure hasten the outcome? And if the inevitable outcome is more just, why should it not be hastened?

You write: "Why would European banks wish to be a front for the U.S. in managing gold?" Some have suggested that it's a matter of the U.S. military bases in Europe, that Western Europe doesn't want to antagonize the U.S. too much by messing up the gold price suppression scheme. Why do gold-producing countries like South Africa remain pledged not to monetize gold when such a pledge is so contrary to their national interests?

But supposing that the European Central Bank and its member banks really do want their independence from the dollar system, do you really think that they will want a "free gold" system for long? In such a system gold would be supreme, and since when have central banks ever wanted that? Isn't the very purpose of a central bank to make sure that gold NEVER becomes supreme, to make sure that the political authorities always remain supreme? I don't get to vote for Greenspan and I certainly don't trust him. Am I supposed to trust Trichet?

You write: "Many ... disagree with my (flexible) conclusions, you (GATA & Co.) included, of course. That's why you (sneeringly) call me 'professor' and you keep on talking to me as a 'suspect.' VERY funny." Disagree with you? No, really, not at all with your general analysis of the world situation. As for the title I assigned to you, please forgive my little joke, meant cordially and prompted by our fellow poster's suggestion that I should teach a college course. I think that most here would consider you best qualified among us for that role. But in any college even professors deserve to be challenged -- perhaps deserve to be challenged most of all.

You write: "In your answers on the forum it seems that you are quite uninterested in where gold might go and under which (new) regime it might start a new life." No, not uninterested. But figuring out the future has not been GATA's work; we've had enough work to do trying to figure out the present. You are quite ahead of us.

You write: "Who can possibly continue to state that euro gold commitments are ONLY a continuation of the big gold fraud and not the early indications of a dramatic change in the old gold market?" Well, maybe you can report where the European central bank gold that has been sold lately is actually going. If it is somehow building the free gold system, I don't see it yet.

You write: "Why would 'deep storage gold' be used (or needed) to siphon Barrick's underground gold to the market as to support the $-IMS? To mobilize other states' gold; there was no change of U.S. Treasury gold status. Why has the IMF gold status not been changed for the same purposes, if the Fed and the ECB apparently (GATA) agreed to change the status of their gold reserves to provide gold liquidity?" Well, the disposition of Western central bank gold reserves seems to be a far more sensitive government secret than the manufacture of nuclear weapons, and perhaps that secrecy explains everything.

But I think our discussion here is overlooking something bigger: The most important issue in the world, the money issue, the transformation of the world financial system, an issue of justice and the rapidly diminishing honor of the United States, is being decided without the understanding and consent of nearly everyone who will be affected. That's not right, and GATA is doing what it can in that respect.

In any case, cordial regards.

Cavan ManRE: Chris Powell#1358249/10/05; 15:39:51

Gentleman and Scholar--no question. Cheers and keep up the good work. Kind regards..CM
GoldiloxTheory#1358259/10/05; 15:40:09

@ Chris,

Interesting theoretical explanation, but you seem to gloss right over the emperical evidence. I fear you are trying so hard to make the story "fit the theory" that you got blinded by misdirection!

Who "invented" the FED? government or "private bankers/parties"?

Who really benefits from their actions? government or private bankers/parties?

Who is the most probable receiving party to CB gold sales? government or private bankers/parties?

Which is more important? The fact that CBs sell gold, or the identity and nature of the recipient?

You guys are good at "following the money" as an investigation technique, but in this case, I'm afraid you may be following the "paper" trail instead of keeping your eyes on "It".

We often point fingers (appropriately) at questionable courts and lawyers for their collusion, but then drop the ball by not bothering to identify their "real clients".

I suggest what we're really experiencing is "government of the bankers, by the bankers, and for the bankers". The lawyers and "representatives" must, by nature of their power base, remain beholden to their sponsors.

Money is power, but as the US Dollar loses it hegemony, and the paper gold markets start ot flutter, the real question will be "Gold, Gold, who's got the Gold?"

CaradocSpot trading on Saturday?#1358269/10/05; 16:15:15

This doesn't show up elsewhere, but here 'tis.


Belgian@CP#1358279/10/05; 18:08:55

The system is already changing NOW ! That's exactly what I'm trying to evidence. From 1999 to date, the POO bursted out of its 3 decades long horizontal price zone ($10-$40) !
As I've been remarking never ever give any consideration on >>> oil - gold - euro - dollar !!!
The rising $-POO is crushing the $-papergold-market as to enforce inflation induced demand for PHYSICAL gold...PHYSICAL gold to be increasingly taken out of the market !!! Now guess WHO are the Euro gold receivers !?
The oil majors want FREEGOLD and the EMU is going to provide it to them ...WIN(oil) - WIN(euro) !

The "ongoing" dismantling of the world's papergold market is yet another concession (the final one) for still having oil invoiced (not priced) in US$.

Don't count on the general public to hasten whatsoever !!!

You don't have to trust anyone (Trichet) your eyes and see how the euro is supported by the rising oilprice + the rising goldprice. BECAUSE OIL ADORES THE ECB'S MTM CONCEPT...AND ADORES A PHYSICAL GOLDMARKET ! The more oil (black gold) is taken out, delivered and consumed...the more pricing power the remaining reserves have. They want the same thing happen for the yellow gold...the more physical gold is taken out of the market, the better the remaining gold will be priced. You cannot take goldmetal out of the market with papergold !!! In order to make this happen, there was the need for a pro gold coalition to break (dismantle) the idiot $-papergold-market.
Trust what you see. Look at the right things that gain in significant importance. Leave the time/energy wasting noice (derivative watching) for what it is.

So to answer your question : Is 6 years a long time (oil $11 > $64) ?
If and when you have realized that you have insured/preserved your future purchasing power with having taken physical gold in possession, today...and when you start to feel that this physical gold is in the process of becoming more and more important than the old papergold...aren't you feeling comfortable enough with this knowledge and right anticipation as to not be impatient !?
It are the holders of goldmine paper that should rather worry about the ongoing change of physical gold becoming of National Stategic Importance. The dismantling of the $-papergold-market is a threat to them. In Dubai and all those other physical gold places, they don't trade or hold that kind of papergold that they never can have in private possession. They always knew exactly what wealth really is. Don't tell them that gambling on papergold is the same as holding wealth. You can call it making money, when they know that your money is NOT wealth. And these oil-owners are now fully aware how wealthy they are (oil) and how wealthy they will become (oil + MTM gold).

You can never bring the general public to accumulate physical gold (take it out of the market) without having a grip of those enormous handles that control the goldprice. People never act on (any) theories...they only follow (sheeplessly) what is happening. Push up any marginal goldmine price with the surrounding fanfare and you make a killing on the back of the disappointed losers . That's what the financial industry has become. When one suggests having physical gold in possession whilst all look at the goldprice get an empty theater. That's exactly what the (western) financial industry always wanted...not a soul looking at physical gold...lest taking it in possession.
Folks just love the official power of the financial industry and follow blindly. Impossible to spoil that fun/thrill with the exposure of the massive fraud. Because it is exactly this fraud that brought the fun...made it possible to happen.
The (un)culture of making money with the trade of (paper)forgeries.

There are a lot of arch-conservative giants out there, who watched those crazy forgery markets and had a good laugh whilst profitting of the situation to take the real wealth stuff massively in possession ! Now they only have to dismantle that crazy paper market and show what the original wealth is really worth. No paperish bull market but plain vanilla REVALUATION ! They want real bulls in the arena and not paper derivatized ones. Those giants are located in the East, Chris. They know the real dollarhistory by hart as does Euroland (the architect).

BelgianCaradoc/Druid - Norcini on POG chart#1358289/10/05; 18:58:40

The golden cross of the 50-200 MA is technically relevant, especially on this type of chart (the LT pattern).
It probably visualizes the fundamental drying up of the papergold market and the pressure that physical shortage + accumulation is building ? Forget about the (arbitrary) channel. The fib. retracement targets say very little about the stage on wich the goldpricing change is (might be).

For concluding that freegold is totally in...we need a different POG-behavior >>> read price explosion to be interpreted as the REVALUATION of gold through the collapse of the $-papergold market. I suspect w're not there yet.

But the pressure is definitely (subtly) building !

Indeed Druid : Everybody can only think about the (limited) repricing of gold...absolutely without having any idea what the REVALUATION of gold fundamentally means. As nobody gets it that the same is going on with oil ! Soon oil will be VALUED as it should have been done a long time ago. And REVALUED means a lot more than a simple rise in price !!!
And now we are finally to realize WHY oil and gold never could be VALUED during the past 3 decades. It brought us the prosperity that we enjoy today...during the coming revaluation period, w're going to have to value that prosperity also and not take it for granted (easely evident)anymore. Basta with all the frauds ! People don't have to look back at these frauds but simply follow the multiple fundamental revaluation processes. Simple, no. But you got that message already some time ago. Many others unfortunately remain stuck in the fraudulent price caroussels. High time we start knowing/realizing the real value of real wealth tangibles and price them correctly/accordingly. I go again preaching. Good night Druid.

NedCLASH AMONGST TITANS !!!!!!!!#1358299/10/05; 19:09:02

Wonderful to see Chris Powell and Belgian stand toe to toe and sling this out !!!!

Reminds me of FOA and ORO, a couple years ago! About time, biggest feud we had was Pritcho and Goldilox for cryin' out loud.

On a day-to-day basis I must admit to understanding 3/4 of what is said on this fine forum so that is good....lets say.

So now, 2 of the 'bigger' guys step up to the plate swingin' like the 'bejesus'. That's good, indicates some new interest, maybe someone will take us out of this year and a half stall, this 410-440 (3) wave repetition that we find ourselves.

Do you guys mind clashin' for a couple more days until $453 is taken out?

Thanks a bunch.

Have a golden weekend.

Chris PowellReplying to Belgian about gold and oil#1358309/10/05; 19:13:45

Thanks, Belgian, for your latest about gold and oil.

In fact GATA has addressed this subject a number of times, if imperfectly, in large part thanks to the work of our consultant, James Turk of GoldMoney and the Freemarket Gold & Money Report, and that of our friend, Eckart Woertz of CFC Securities in Dubai and the Gulf Research Center. Here are some of GATA's treatments of the issue:

* * *

February 18, 2004: "OPEC is ALREADY pricing oil in euros, GoldMoney's Turk reveals," a GATA dispatch based on a paper by Turk:

Turk's corresponding paper:

* * *

August 20, 2004: "Oil price is calm when viewed in gold terms rather than depreciating dollars," a GATA dispatch again based on Turk's work:

Turk's corresponding paper:

* * *

January 26, 2005: "Hunt brothers' silver move was meant to protect their oil business," a GATA dispatch of an essay by Tom Dyson for

* * *

And several GATA dispatches from March 3, 2005, all arising from Woertz's report for the Gulf Research Center:

"Dubai study warns oil producers that Western banks rig gold market," which can be found here:

"GATA distributes international press release on gold-rigging report," which can be found here:

"Harris Capital Management: The real currency is crude oil," which can be found here:

* * *

No one who asserts that the rising price of oil is largely a measure of the depreciation of the U.S. dollar will get an argument from GATA. But are you saying that the European central banks' dishoarded gold is being used to pay for oil? If so, whose oil, and, really, whose gold? Is it Europe's oil and Europe's gold or America's oil and America's gold, masked by gold swaps with the European central banks?

It is established that the oil price in dollars has exploded over the last six years. It is not established that the gold price suppression scheme is over or even nearly over, though of course my colleague, GATA's chairman, believes that it will be smashed up any day now.

I am more skeptical. I ask: Might not we see $100 or $150 oil with gold still at $440 or so? Surely any central bank with gold to dishoard can suppress the price for as long as its reserves hold out and it is willing to spend them. Presumably this would keep the oil producers happy -- they'd get higher and higher paper dollar prices and be able to purchase more and more cheap gold.

But this really doesn't address many of GATA's concerns, just as you don't -- openness in government policy now, free and transparent markets now, fair compensation for producers of commodities now, the honor of the United States, the decent SURVIVAL of the United States, and so forth.

That is why I argue for hastening the day. You assert that the public is hopeless and it never will get involved to hasten anything. Maybe you're right, but then I don't think we need the whole public, just the right number of attentive and decent people involved with the financial markets and mining industry.

We'll see, and I think you and I disagree on this point without disagreeing on the general world situation. And we can agree on the general world situation without having to share each other's foremost concerns. Let's just acknowledge that we have some different concerns.

goldfever"Titanica-America" and the Gold & Silver "Lifeboats"#1358319/10/05; 19:55:29

Date: Thu Sep 08 2005 21: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ("Titanica-America" is sinking.) ID#291114:Copyright © 2002 This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. /Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Titanica-America is Sinking; September 08, 2005. Yes, "Titanica-America" IS sinking.... And the Life-boats will be found in Gold & Silver.

A 20 year Epoch of "Economic-Winter" is upon us.Wake up to the dangers; and to the opportunities.

But there will not be enough "lifeboats" to go around. The prices for these Gold & Silver "Lifeboats" will be very very dear, very expensive, indeed.

Today, they – Gold & Silver -- are still a bargain.They are still Early in their long-term, multi-year Bull Market.

As the fiat currencies of nations’ paper moneys and paper-credit instruments depreciate into oblivion, faltering and failing in a hypnotic slow-motion of endless human misery…….

The paper currencies of the world's nations will ultimately collapse; it is inevitable; no matter there collusions of power-blocs and their collections of war-mongering guns.

Only Gold & Silver Money will triumph. For these ARE hard specie: coins, and credit-instruments convertible there-to; to Real Money – Gold and/or Silver.

Thus, with Global, Universal Real Money, humanity will be inherently ruled thereby, and their governments will there-by be disciplined to honest financial and political accountability.

For Gold and Silver are the True Money of an honest humanity, seeking, equality of opportunity; a global humanity of a renewing and new world; where a common-community of nations equally and honestly trade with one another on an equal monetary and credit-footing.

For only Real Money is Real Money. Usury has run its indebted course, straight into a ditch of unleashed human greed, fear, manipulation; and with trade-wars-brewing; and an unbridled indebtedness spawning global poverty everywhere.

The fiat paper currency-cancer of all nations is breeding and feeding the human miseries all over our world. Have we had enough of this, yet?

It is overdue time for a universal, global, internationally acceptable common Global-Economic-Money: and it can only be in the form and specie of Gold, and Silver………---Real Money.

This is inevitable: "Gold & Silver". A Global Economy and a Community of Nations equally ruled by Honest Money. IT will eventually BE agreed to -- by international accords, by treaties, and by unanimous international-law.

This – a single Global, Universal Money --alone will stabilize our troubled, tumultuous world; and bring alive the hope of equal opportunity for peace, and prosperity….. that is the universal human hunger of our world.

The generosity of the human-spirit has no limits, when it is offered a fair playing field, which inherently insists on honest money --- Gold & Silver.

And so yes -- Gold and Silver will rise UP. And go way way up. And as they go up, paper nations’ fiat currencies will go way way down…. ultimately into the oblivion of their inevitable destiny.

Meanwhile, Gold and Silver are NOW about to resume their on-going march for humanity's freedom, all across our world. And as they once again go up in terms depreciating fiat currencies; they will – Gold & Silver will -- eventually reach up - exponentially; and will eventually spiral up to several thousand dollars per ounce, in terms of worthless national currencies of paper.

And when Gold and Silver reach their inevitable hyperbolic high prices…. several years yet hence, spiraling to several thousand U.S. dollars per ounce – …….. THAT will be the TIME to sell.

Yes, in the terms of the world's paper-currencies, Gold and Silver will eventually skyrocket in price and value.

But don't wait until then; for when the popular mass psychology is unanimously clamoring for Gold and Silver at any cost; THAT will be THE time to sell.

This is the law of cycles.

"A word fitly spoken is like apples of gold in pictures of silver." ( Proverbs ) .

Ayn Rand, from "Atlas Shrugged": "When you accept money in payment for your effort, you do so only on the Conviction that you will exchange it for the (equal and equivalent) product of the effort of others...."

We see today thru a glass darkly; one day we will see face to face.

In our NOW unfolding 20 years of "Economic-Winter"; "Titianica-America" will reveal that in addition to the destruction of private wealth inherent in the the first "Trojan-Horse" --- known as the "The U.S Equity & Bond Markets; the "Second Trojan Horse" has now joined-in, undermining the U.S Economy and depleting the U.S. Middle-Class-Economy and Society. This Second Trojan Horse of the "Titanica-America" Economy is the debt-bloated, ominously-inflated U.S. Real Estate Market. These are two of the Four Trojan Horses that will bring down the U.S Economy --- eventually they will undermine and exhaust the U.S. Economy, and lead to the decline of the U.S. Middle-Class; and cause the inevitable depreciation, repudiation, and collapse of the U.S. Dollar on international currency .markets.

This will be a 20-year "Economic-Winter" as "Titanica-America" sinks.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Equity markets will continue their disguised, on-going bear markets …. until the proverbial Trojan Horses bring blood a-running in the streets…… and U.S. equities will be going for sale to the highest bidder…that is, for a song.

The other two Horsemen of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse of this "Titanica-America" Economy spiraling into 20 years of "Economic-Winter"….. yes, the other two Trojan-Horses of- this American Economic Epoch of Decline, and ultimate Rebirth, are the two Trojan Horses of……: Human Greed, and Human Hubris.

So....Keep the faith: for a 20 year epoch of : "Economic Spring" will begin about the year 2025. And Gold & Silver Money will be the global economy's universal standard of wealth – our universal medium of exchange, and our common store of value…… as free, global citizens, all across our rebirthing, equal-opportunity-economic-world. And "Titanica-America" will be no more.

Sincerely Yours,
David Blair Macrory

PRITCHOFrom Todays Privateer - - -The Deadly Danger To The "Markets":#1358329/10/05; 23:52:02

The Deadly Danger To The "Markets":

Many Americans and other people all over the world are now shaking the sand out of their ears after removing their head from the place it has long been buried. Ominously, very few of them live or work in Washington DC, or on Wall Street, or in the other financial trading capitals of the world. Wall Street in particular has been focussing on three items since the storm hit. It has focussed on them with a desperate and tunnel vision tenacity since the extent of the damage became clear.

First, it is focussing on all the juicy contracts which will now be up for grabs to rebuild the damage. This is of course the age old "broken window" fallacy which sees the new work for the glazier but does not see the loss of wealth incurred by the owner of the window. Then Wall Street is focussing on the fall in oil prices, entirely and determinedly ignoring the emptying of the global reserves of refined petroleum products which has brought it about. Finally, Wall Street is seeing the end of Fed rate rises.

What the financial markets are ENTIRELY ignoring is the catastrophic loss of real wealth,the threat of a breakdown in the economic infrastructure, and above all, the demonstrated incapacity of the US to make good the losses with either existing savings or internal productive capacity.The markets are ignoring the starkly demonstrated fact that there is nothing behind the IOUs they trade between them with such abandon. Right now, there is no more dangerous market in the world than the US stock markets.
Recent Events:

On August 28, the day before Katrina hit, the Dow closed below the 10,400 level for the first time since July 7. After two weeks of government induced chaos and an unprecedented loss of wealth, the Dow closed at 10678 on September 9 after having enjoyed its biggest weekly rise since May. Such is the disconnect from reality of US financial markets in the immediate aftermath of Katrina.

That performance has been duplicated in almost all other markets, especially US markets. The US Dollar lost ground in the week after Katrina struck, but has regained half its losses in the week just ended. The Treasury yield curve has steepened slightly as the requisite "safe haven" buying has ramped up. Oil has plummeted as a direct consequence of the emptying of European and Asian strategic petrol reserves. And the $US Gold price, while it is indeed rising, still languishes below the highs it set last December.

PRITCHOWHATS NEXT ? - - - - Another Snip From The Privateer#1358339/10/05; 23:58:09

What's Next?:
The coming two weeks will undoubtedly see an increasing rush of ever more desperate edicts flowing out of Washington DC. The growing problem for the Bush Administration is that with each one,the President's
"popularity" dives further.

September 11 is, of course, the fourth anniversary of the attack on New York. Mr Rumsfeld's "Freedom Walk" will go ahead as planned, flanked by the entire police force of Washington DC and barred to anyone without a permit from the Pentagon. Fences have been erected to keep everyone else at bay.

The FOMC meets on September 20 to decide whether they can "afford" to raise rates to safeguard the US Dollar or whether they can't because of the potential impact on the markets. The IMF and G-7 are to meet in Washington. And on September 24, a HUGE anti-war march is scheduled for Washington.

GoldiloxWall St a la "Privateer"#1358349/11/05; 00:31:57

@ Pritcho,

"First, it is focussing on all the juicy contracts which will now be up for grabs to rebuild the damage."

When Wall St "burned", we (the collective enterprise computing industry) worked our tails off to get the data centers back up in < 48 hours, but TPTB decided to remain closed for business a couple more days "in memorium". Then they proceeded to transfer a major share of our livelyhood to Indian sweat shops as fast as they could train them to answer the phone with "American accents".

When NO and the Gulf are trashed many times worse than the Wall St carnage, it's "business as usual" on Wall St, with the trading vultures circling for "scraps" of recovery funds. Not to downplay any of the serious charitable responses, but the vultures are not about to take a day off in reverence when there's gubmint money to be had!

US response to the tragedy in the south will resound loudly to the rest of the world, with the potential to escalate foreign reserve balancing.

PRITCHOCredit Bubble Bulletin, by Doug Noland - - -#1358359/11/05; 00:49:21

Snip: (From end of commmentry)
Watching the markets’ response to Katrina – higher stock and bond prices at home and abroad – I will err on the side of expecting continued economic "resiliency." There will surely be wide-ranging financial ramifications and some economic dislocation. But, for the economy as a whole, I expect activity to continue to be dictated by interest-rates, mortgage rates in particular. And while some point to economic weakness prior to the storm, I will stick with the analysis of a U.S. and global economy demonstrating inflationary boom characteristics. If the inflationary bias is as prevalent as I suspect it is, then expect the major impact of Katrina to be higher prices for things ranging from gasoline and other fuels, to chicken, shrimp and oysters, to lumber and other building supplies. If some of these reside in "core CPI," then we can simply adjust the core, again. To be sure, this catastrophe will ensure that an unsound and unbalanced economy becomes more so.

PRITCHOThey Wait & Watch To See What Consumers reaction Will Be To Higher Pump Prices - - -#1358369/11/05; 00:54:57

Ted Geoca is Partner in Maxout Savings Group and Vice President Wunderlich Securities Inc. and hosts the website

Today we have an equivalent of $100 barrel oil. With oil selling for over $67 a barrel, what is not well understood on Wall Street is that now gasoline is selling close to $100 oil equivalent. Most economists are used to watching the price of oil in predicting consumer behavior. This is the case because oil and gasoline typically move up and down together percentage wise. In the past when oil was in short supply there was not a refinery shortage so the price increases moved up the supply chain equally. In today's markets we have a shortage of crude oil and refining capacity. This has led to a dramatic increase in the price of oil and the crack spread. The crack spread is roughly the difference between the price of crude oil and the refined products that the oil refinery produces (gasoline). In other words, the spread of gasoline over oil measures how much value the refinery adds.

PRITCHO@Goldilox et al - - - RE "Euphoria! Sudden loss of liquidity?"#1358379/11/05; 01:06:19

Can someone please read this & explain in "simple terms" as I'm buggered if I understand him properly - Thanks
( Especially the "outlook" for Siver )

Bob Hoye

Snip - --One of the more interesting such indicators is not widely followed. At times, the gold/silver ratio seems to act like a credit spread in anticipating or confirming a boom by decreasing, or the same for contraction in increasing.

The ratio increased to 81 in June, 2003 and, as it reversed, it confirmed that the boom would soar. The chart follows and the main thing is the decline to 55 on June 1 (the spike-down to 51 in 2004 seems anomalous in the context of this discussion).

However, since early June the ratio has had a significant recovery and today's swoon in silver popped it above resistance at 64 to 65.5. Technically, this is breaking out of a reverse "head and shoulders" pattern which is opposite to that at the top in 2003.

At this stage of speculative euphoria, typically its exhaustion is signaled by dramatic plunges in silver relative to gold. This seems to be starting and it is worth noting that currently Brazilian and Indonesian credit spreads have been widening. The latter reminds of the Asian Crisis that started with the Thai baht on July 1, 1997.

ge@PRITCHO#1358389/11/05; 02:07:28

Hoye seems to be suggesting that hot money would run out out of the emerging market debt, causing a spike in local interest rates and devaluation of local currencies.

He is suggesting that gold/silver ratio might be a good proxy for the interest differentials between US debt and emerging market debt (why, I don't know?!). He expects the gold/silver ratio to increase during an emerging market crisis.

If the hot money flees to the dollar, this might lighten the pressure on the dollar. Interestingly, this is what Jack Crooks of Asia Times expects. Perhaps, this has already been discussed in a meeting between major central banks (may be during a dinner :) ) and a deal was reached.

In Scwager's book, "Market Wizards", Ed Seykota said that (quoting from memory), silver had a schizophrenic personality. It sometimes acted as an idustrial metal, sometimes a precious one.

Belgian@CP#1358399/11/05; 02:41:04

Have been reading some of the articles you mentioned. Shall read the other ones, now.

May I suggest that you go to the Gold Trail (thoughts-?) and study Archive I (2000). It is a conditio that you have assimilated the historical background of the past 3 decades.
Then watch the daily behavior (tick to tick) of $-€-$/POO-$/POG. Realize that you might not have the time to do so.
When some significant changes occur in this market segment, listen and memorize the (planted) comments from the financial media. Kind of spy work that evidences day after day the struggles that are taking place between €-$-POO-POG (IRs).

But I get the impression that your energy and commitment goes to your "concern" about Amerika. That's noble.
But the more the politicos "talk" about transparency...the less there is on the Big fundamental issues. And often I do agree that such a degree of transparency is impossible for strategic (political) reasons. Public opinion can get in the way as to make things NOT happen. All states are chronic liars and will always get away with it for the simple reason that it takes a lot of efforts to detect and expose + come as close to the truth as possible. Once you found that truth, nobody believes you. Smile Chris.

Without the internet, I would have remained an analphabet on many topics. But once you get how the systemic lying is organized, it becomes much easier to automatically separate half lies from half truths with a reasonable adequacy score.

Tell me when you finished Archive I (2000) and please do reflect on it, here at the forum. Touch what has been said in 2000 with today's realities as to evaluate the theories/studies/experiences/expertise on their merits. Today's events don't come out of the blue. They have an historical context and consequently a (visible) future.
Currencies, gold and oil are a close trio that has evolved (still is) for the past 70 years. We will NEVER run out of oil and gas. This does NOT mean that we are going to continue consuming it like we did. Oil is the very basis of organic (carbon/hydrogen) chemistry. Without oil for this purpose w're catapulted back to the stone age. The politicos gathered in Wales (oil consumers) are demanding transparency on oil matters from those who are the owners of the reserves. But all have been lying about it for the past 80 years. So don't expect transparency on a plate when you ask about oil and gold. Find as much dots as you can and connect them to form a picture that makes sense (adds up). That's why one has to assimilate the recent history.
Gold has always been involved with oil flows and oil pricing. This will intensify in the very near future. It's about RE-VALUATION...WHERE THIS TIME THE PRIVATE SMALL PHYSICAL GOLDHOLDER IS GOING TO PROFIT FROM...TAKE PART IN IT. That's the whole purpose of coming FREEGOLD.

Gold and oil were always highly valued...but this very evident value had to remain out of reach for the masses for very sound reasons. Sticking to the gold discipline would have made the growing political economy, that brought prosperity, impossible. So "re-valuation" in fact means letting the real true value being exposed to everyone. And we have to go on that trail simply because the political economy was based on the backing of debt, making it always look credible. Too much debt already as to be able to back it up without exposing the real values and let those real values manifest themselves. The notion of real genuine "wealth" has to be called in, back again. The oil history started with physical gold, then this relationship was pushed into the dark to live a (an untransparent) life on its own. Now this oil/gold/currency numeraire is coming back into the lights. The euro-gold concept. Check the behavior of these parameters on your ticker tape. Actions and reactions by the (opposing) factions that make their moves as to work towards their goals.

Impossible to trace how gold reaches oil. The ECB/BIS complex is not dishing transparency out on a www-plate. Oh no. The only thing we can do is to try looking "behind" the scarce statements perfectly concepted for neutral public consumption. Things have to add up, make sense and we have to find out "what" makes sense. Gold actions (sales-commitments) serve a purpose...and that's NOT the jewelry business/industry, wich's (gold)function isn't even understood by goldbugs.

Goldmetal is in the process of being taken out of its organized marginalization. Today's goldprice behavior is not yet evidence of this. The gold-actions of the past decade is.

Maintaining the minimum liquidity in the goldmarket with mobilizing gold to circulate (ECB-Belgian gold) is evidence that goldmetal is drying up...most probably prematurally.
Coincidently, Euroland's politicos are gathering around oil and the oil future. Again oil + gold events in the same timespan and as untransparent as ever. But intuitively one smells things are moving faster due to building pressure. That's what I'm interpreting from the ticker watch (pushing and pulling on the parameters-prices).

The old dollar-gold regime was concepted as to have oil invoiced in (reserve) dollars. Why shouldn't EMU working on the same purpose and initially coexist with the dollar ?
Watch the ticker and look what happens when the euro comes under pressure...etc...etc

It is from this kind of dialoque that forumers (myself included) and physical gold interested (clients) can profit (no clashes, Ned).

TopazGold, currencies. #1358409/11/05; 04:09:34

This strong PoG in a non-delivery month is indicative of big time Physical off-take sufficient to overcome a normally softer futures derived Spot price.

Delivery notices didn't update Fri which is a bit curious but judging by OI, theyd've only done 3 ...or DID they?

An interesting week ahead for sure!

masSome additional points#1358419/11/05; 08:55:29

From the Privateer.

Finally, the political proverbial dime dropped in the US Executive Branch. They promptly panicked.
The White House has told US refiners to postpone all their scheduled maintenance in a drive to maximise
petrol and diesel production in the wake of hurricane Katrina. This is, potentially, a deadly dangerous
move. The entire system is now labouring under a "diminished capacity". To throw maintenance out of
the window in what now remains of the rest of the US refinery system - already working flat out trying to
cover for the lost output of the refineries missing in action - is to expose the remainder of the system to
more and possibly full production breakdown. If any more US refineries suffer a full breakdown, the US
eastern seaboard is cruising towards a systemic crash.
A senior executive from a big refinery in Houston said: "The message from the government is ‘run the
refinery as high as you can and avoid all the non-priority maintenance in the next four or six weeks’."
The US Economy Is Flashing Red Lights:
The US Commerce Department has reported that durable goods orders dropped 4.9% in July. But US
consumer spending rose a hearty 1.0 percent for the second straight month in July, outstripping a weaker
than expected 0.3 percent rise in incomes. The personal saving rate was thus sent into negative territory
for only the second time on record. The saving rate, the percentage out of all disposable income, was a
negative 0.6 percent - the smallest rate since monthly records began in 1959. This is, quite literally, the
real economic consumption of the US capacity to produce at all.
Economic Cascade Sequence:
The US new orders index fell from 69.6 to 46.5. The US production index dropped from 70.5 to 56.2.
The measure of prices paid by manufacturers for materials rose from 61.3 to 62.9. The employment index
dropped from 56.1 to 51.7. These are the economic numbers of an economy stripping all its gears.
The US new orders index and the production index dives are terrifying. The climbing costs to US
business are grim, as is the US employment index. The Chicago Purchasing Managers said that their
Business Barometer fell to 49.2 from 63.5 in July! US median household income stood at $US 44,389,
unchanged from 2003. But US households compensated for that by using their own houses as if they
were ATM machines. US homeowners took $US 59 Billion in cash out of their houses in the second
quarter, double the amount in the equivalent quarter of 2004 and SIXTEEN times the average rate for the
mid-1990s, according to data released this month by mortgage giant Freddie Mac.
There are no savings, there is precious little "equity", only the borrowing rolls madly along.
Now, here comes another stark warning from the US Comptroller General about the current US debt and
deficit and the unfunded promises. That huge total comes to $US 43 TRILLION, says Mr Walker, the US
Comptroller General, who runs the government's Accountability Office. That works out to $US 145,000
for every American or $US 350,000 for every full-time worker.
America spends $US 1.9 Billion more a day on imported clothes and cars and gadgets than the rest of the
world as a whole spends on its goods and services. New US household debt currently fuels over 12% of
GDP. Piled on top of all that is the Federal budget deficit and the deficits on the State and local levels.
When US consumer comes to a halt, 12 percent of US GDP will disappear. It will vanish, unless the
government replaces it with its own borrowing, or the Fed literally prints the money.

masPritcho, for your review#1358429/11/05; 09:08:47

Again from the Privateer. Another view as they would say.

The bureaucratic and institutionalised incompetence displayed before, during and after Katrina was
inevitable. Bureaucrats and their institutions have no need of competence. Being insulated from any and
all forms of economic reality, they are not subject to the need to co-operate with those around them, nor is
there any requirement that they earn or create the resources which they so casually use up. The wielders
of government do not need to show a profit, they merely need to write a law or a regulation.
Even a cursory examination of the actual workings of government will make all this clear. In an almost
real sense, those who "debate" the rules and regulations and those who write and enforce them have
something in common. They think that all that is necessary to bring wealth into existence is to put words
on a piece of paper decreeing that it be so. In "normal" times, the surface appearance is that this actually
"works". The "need" is found, the rule is written and passed into law, the "money" is (quite literally)
created and used to "buy" the raw materials, the people required to do the actual work are hired or
assigned, and a new dam or bridge or levee or road appears.
The "problem" arises in ABNORMAL times, such as in the aftermath of the devastation wreaked by a
hurricane aided and abetted by an inadequately constructed and maintained levee system. Suddenly, to
quote the headline which begins this issue: "The facade is washed away". What is left is devastation
made much worse by a desperate government need to "control" the situation and worse still, by their
attempts to control the perceptions of those involved in it and witnessing it.
The clearest examples of this have been the decrees issued by the Bush Administration as the true
magnitude of the devastation has been revealed.
Behaviourism - Washington DC Style:
First, and as already reported on the "Inside The United States" page, President Bush has ORDERED all
functioning US oil refineries to throw their maintenance schedules away and run flat out for the next four
to six weeks. To hell with the increased risk of the breakdown of the entire US refinery capacity, what is
"important" to Washington here is a simple fact. The rest of the world can supply the US with enough
refined petroleum products to keep the price from skyrocketing - for the next four to six weeks. By this
order, one which no politician would dare to make in an even "semi-free" society, the Bush
Administration hopes to have enough refined oil in hand at the end of this period to keep prices down.
Not content with that, Mr Bush signed an Executive Order on September 8 which permits FEDERAL
CONTRACTORS rebuilding in New Orleans and elsewhere in the Gulf States to pay below the
"prevailing" (read minimum) wage. This "accomplishes" a number of things. It ensures that only those
firms "approved" by Washington DC will get the contracts. It also ensures that the federal government
will be "in charge" of the rebuilding, thereby giving the impression that it is THEY who are the saviours
of the devastated areas. There is also the incidental benefit that companies with direct ties to the Bush
Administration are already being signed up as these government contractors.
A "minimum wage" is disastrous economically, acting as it does to price out of the jobs market all those
whose skills cannot command the mandated sum. Just as clearly, the young and unskilled are the worst
hit because they cannot get a low-paying job in which they gain the skills needed to increase their value to
present and future employers. In a welfare state, the professed reason for a minimum wage is to elevate
the "poor" by raising the price of their labour. In reality, the minimum wage swells the ranks of the poor,
thereby swelling the potential and actual ranks of the "clients" of the welfare state. The political purpose
of all edicts which hamper or circumvent the MARKET is to give an impression of the indispensability of
government CONTROL. But when that control is in danger of slipping, the rules are "bent".

Money Is No Object:
Do you remember the message as the government ramped up spending in the wake of 9/11? It went along
these lines: "Money is no object - FREEDOM has been attacked". Then there was the refrain when they
ramped up spending still more in the lead up to and during the attack on Iraq: "Money is no object, we
must make the US safe from terrorists". Now, the refrain - and the oceans of money spewing out of
Washington DC - have broadened still wider: "Money is no object, we must rebuild the nation".
The official estimate is that the war in Iraq and Afghanistan has cost $US 300 Billion. Now, so far
unofficial estimates are claiming that the "final" cost of the Katrina devastation could be another $US 300
Billion. With just under three weeks to go in fiscal 2005, the increase in US Treasury debt for the year
stands at $US 571 Billion.
Then there is the funded debt which is now rapidly approaching $US 8 TRILLION and the $US 40-70
TRILLION in future promises to pay. Add to that the trade and current account deficits, now guaranteed
to escalate. Add to that the debts of US consumers and corporations and stir in a now NEGATIVE US
savings rate. That's quite a stew.
Of course, to government, money is no object. If you, dear reader, had the ability to start with a blank
piece of paper, label it as legal tender, decree that it was a valid payment for debts incurred, forbid anyone
to refuse to accept it, and multiply its issuance without any limits whatsoever, would money be any
object? Clearly not. Of course, in reality, modern "money" is indeed "no object". Most of it doesn't
exist except as collections of binary entries in the bowels of computer networks. The problem is that
WEALTH is comprised entirely of real existing objects, ones which take time and expertise to produce,
which exist in finite quantity, and which cannot be grown on trees or given substance by decree.
Since the US emerged as the predominant world power in the aftermath of WWI, both its government and
its people have been progressively insulated from that basic truth. Since the final demise of "objective
money" with the severance of Gold and the US Dollar in 1971, they have been entirely insulated from it.
It took twenty years to get entirely used to the idea, and then in 1991 the US became the world's sole
remaining "superpower" as the USSR crashed and burned.
That ushered in the era in which "money" really did become no object - as tallied by the debt totals listed
above. It also ushered in the era of the biggest market bubbles in history inflated by the biggest and
longest lasting credit (read DEBT) expansion orgy in history. What few noticed and fewer still chose to
take seriously was the inevitable result. With any expansion of money based on debt comes a
proportional implosion of the supply of and the means with which to create more real wealth. The
reasons for this have already been given in this issue of The Privateer.
Bursting The Biggest Bubble Of All:
If the disastrous aftermath of Katrina has provided anything positive, it lies in a harsh and merciless
exposure. The combination of chaotic action and the brutish need to control events exhibited by
government has laid them bare for all to see. Katrina has unveiled the workings of the combination of
welfare and warfare state of any government which pursues empire.
One must try very had indeed to refuse to recognise the incompetence of government. It is difficult to
ignore the arrogance of the bureaucrats and politicians who maintain that their wishes make it so. But
acknowledging these facts does not penetrate to the root of the problem. The root of the problem is that
the pursuit of political power leads inevitably to the production of economic impoverishment - for all
those not in political power. When someone from government says: "I'm here to help you" - please
translate. What he or she is really saying is: "I'm here to CONTROL you." The tragedy is that
historically, it almost always takes a calamity the size of Katrina to expose that fact.

CaradocAfter the storm: What's wrong with America?#1358439/11/05; 09:26:44

No single paragraph stands out as a representative snip of the article linked above. This dispassionate piece goes far beyond its title. It's as much about post 9/11 as post Katrina in looking at a broad range of symptoms, even the apparent preference for escapist fiction.

A good read! If it had included failure to defend borders and coin money, it would amount to a set piece showing that US taxpayers aren't getting their money's worth.


Chris PowellWe gain nothing if we lose our country#1358449/11/05; 09:55:17

Thanks again, Belgian, for your latest about gold and oil and the recommendation to review the archive of this forum's Year 2000 postings on the subject, which I am already doing. But I did read them when they were first posted and do remember and grasp their main points about oil's unrecognized value and its centrality to the gold price. Indeed, while oil is not really GATA's issue, I think the GATA dispatches I cited to you yesterday give some indication of our awareness of its relevance.

Where I will disagree with you is where you write: "All states are chronic liars and will always get away with it for the simple reason that it takes a lot of effort to detect and expose and come as close to the truth as possible. Once you find that truth, nobody believes you."

Yes, governments tend to lie about important things but democratic governments CAN be compelled to tell the truth eventually and even be brought to heel. As for the truth never being believed.... Yes, it can be a slow process but "never" is wrong. YOU are believed here, as Another and FOA were, and the knowledge shared at this forum and the dialogue undertaken here have influenced many. Like it or not, they have been crucial to me.

Some Americans ARE waking up to the financial recklessness and arrogance of their government, which is, after all, only the inevitable corruption of any empire. (A couple of excellent Associated Press series analyzing the U.S. government's financial recklessness recently were published widely in American newspapers.) Certainly not enough people are awakened to alter policy at the moment, but perhaps in time. In any case good citizens are obliged to try. We will hardly protect ourselves and our families with gold if we end up having to spend much of it on ammunition just to survive, if we lose a decent country to live in.

Further, the oil-gold-euro bloc does not implement its plans in a vacuum. The dollar bloc surely has plans of its own, perhaps including currency and capital controls, just for starters. You cite the growing physical gold market in Dubai. What if, for example, the United States purports to discover "weapons of mass destruction" in Dubai? I wish I was entirely joking. But the gold there well might be considered a "weapon of mass destruction," even if few people would understand right now how that could be so. At least Dubai seems defenseless against any of the U.S. Marine regiments in the neighborhood.

My points are that the future is not always as sure as logic and reason might make it seem, that The Powers That Be don't always win, that knowledge is responsibility, and that the truth may have more utility than you think. I've always liked the way William James put it:

"I am against bigness and greatness in all their forms, and with the invisible molecular moral forces that work from individual to individual, stealing in through the crannies of the world like so many soft rootlets, or like the capillary oozing of water, and yet rending the hardest monuments of man's pride, if you give them time. The bigger the unit you deal with, the hollower, the more brutal, the more mendacious is the life displayed. So I am against all big organizations as such, national ones first and foremost; against all big successes and big results; and in favor of the eternal forces of truth which always work in the individual and immediately unsuccessful way, underdogs always, till history comes, after they are long dead, and puts them on top."

Well, one quibble with that: May we all live so long.

Yes, as you remarked to Ned, there is no clash here. Cordial regards to all.

MKChris Powell, Caradoc, Belgian, Goldilox, et al : What's wrong with America?#1358469/11/05; 11:15:53

The same thing that's the matter with Europe, Russia, China and Japan:

• An over-reliance on the government.

• A concentration of too many financial resources in the wrong place: the federal government bureaucrasy.

• A voluminous and for the most part incomprehensible compendium of federal rules and regulations meant to take decision-making out of the hands of the individual, and place it instead in the hands of a vast and distant bureaucrasy fundamentally detached from the problems which arise -- an operator's manual without an operator.

• An abdication of responsibility for the strength of the society and its insitutions from citizens to federal politicians who value their career goals over the equitable and efficient functioning of the society -- Mr. Smith has not and will not go to Washington.

• A frustrating and readily apparent impotence to solve the problems facing our society in almost all theaters -- including the financial and economic spheres. New Orleans is symptomatic of the disease, not the disease itself (which is all the above).

• Constant diversion from the very real problem created by socialist governments worldwide, which at the core are economic, instead of addressing those problems directly, fundamentally and systematically -- the problem of a society essentially running out of money.

The word "exhaustion" dominates the mind -- a society worldwide whose institutions are exhausted, driven by bankrupt socialist theory on both the left and right, and deaf to the warnings being voiced, just as the warnings on New Orleans were ignored.

And its not just the United States in this position, but the entirety of the industrialized world, including Europe, Japan and the current rising star - China.

As you can see, I am not optimisitic. That's why I advocate and encourage gold ownership. The trends I describe above may be beyond anyone's ability to turn them around. Most likely, they will simply run their course despite well-laid plans. If the frustration of New Orleans is evident to you, then the words I have spoken above are not foreign to your thoughts. New Orleans becomes a fractal -- evidence of what could happen in a wider economic crisis when the government fails to respond, or resonds so weakly that its presence is not readily apparent. Only in the face of rising economic waters, there is a practical and cost-effective remedy.

The response of the rational individual is to prepare. We have just seen what the lack of preparation engenders. How often have those who prepare been laughed at as paranoid fools? But how irrational does that response seem now?

I am now reading what I consider to be a remarkable series of books on the Arthurian legend by Jack Whyte (The Skystone, The Singing Sword, et al). The series begins in Britain at the time of the Roman Empire's dissolution. A Roman aristocrat, Senator and honored general foresees the fall of the Empire and with like-minded individuals founds a colony in Britain (his birthplace) as a matter of mutual protection and survival. At the time, even prominent Romans still working under the SPQR believe that the fall is inevitable -- an empire at the point of exhaustion. The disintegration, General Brittanicus believes, will begin when the military presence is withdrawn from the farthest outposts - like Britain. There are invaders and enemies on all the coasts who will overrun Britain should Rome fall. The empire has already been split between Rome and Constantinople. It is to fill the power vacuum left by the fall that wealthy Britannicus founds the colony on his vast estates. The book is particularly appropriate for veteran readers of this page in that it deals with themes with which we are intimately familiar.

An example of Whyte's writing I found particularly striking:

"There is a beast in every many who breathes, a beast that is born in him and lives within him all his life, in a constant struggle for dominance over what he would prefer to think of as his better self. I say that with complete conviction because I have had to come to terms with my own personal beast, and it now lies dormant inside me; dormant, but far from dead. It stirs occasionally, reminding of its presence, of its poison.

My beast's chains are strong -- as strong as I, a maker of iron chains, could make them. I know to my own cost, nevertheless, that are frighteningly fragile. . ."


"I was here -- we were here -- because of Caius' conviction, to which I had subscribed at first reluctantly, but later with total dedication, that all of this incredible wealth and organized intensity and efficiency surrounding us would soon cease to be. . .that Rome herself, the eternal Mistress of the Universe, would shortly die. Marching through those corridors at that time however, hearing the disciplined, exact cadences of the iron-nailed military boots crashing on marble floors, observing the blanked, visionless, forward concentrated vigilance of the ranked guards as we passed and knowing that they had assessed and were ignoring us, their attention focused upon and identifying threats to the Imperial Regent, it seemed unbelievable to me that such a presence, such formidable, inexorable power, would ever fail, or even falter, in its supremacy. I found myself wondering briefly how Britannicus could have ever been so misguided, so mad as to doubt this reality. But then my own perception of reality returned, reminding me that Caius has never talked of instant death. The fate he envisioned for the Empire would begin with an inevitable self-protective withdrawal, a convulsion, a fear-engendered retraction of the Imperial armies from places like this, and from peaceful Britain most of all, leaving chaos and emptiness in its aftermath."

These words are delivered by the novels' narrator, the smith who forges the sword. . .

KnallgoldBelgian#1358479/11/05; 11:27:32

Just read all your last posts,I think I'm getting it now,though my head is smoking.

Bought 10 more ounces,also put Mum into Another 10 watch the price on Monday...

Liberty HeadBravo MK, Well Said#1358489/11/05; 12:29:08

Over reliance on gov't happens when folks receive thier education at gov't run schools where compliance is the constant lesson.
Most people are willing to have another entity take responsibility from their lives in exchange for compliance.
It's a fool's bargain.

Best Wishes

Liberty HeadLosing Our Country#1358499/11/05; 12:57:40

@Chris Powell

We no longer live in a democrcy, we now live under autocratic rule disquised as democracy.
No matter how unpopular the current regime becomes, the next election will still be a choice between autocrats.
The election results will be dubious, as well.
Our time in the sun is over.
While folks have become more angry, few have become any wiser.

Best Wishes

968Hello Sir MK#1358509/11/05; 13:11:40

I would love to hear your position also on a Central Bank using a MTM system for goldreserves, and the system the US uses.

What do you think Wim Duisenberg meant when he said : "It is the first currency that has not only severed its link to gold, but also its link to the nation-state."

Do you see in difference in link between oil-gold-dollar, and oil-gold-euro ?

Thanks in advance !

Tapper_LightBelgian,Chris Powell, MK and All...America's take on the coming changes#1358519/11/05; 13:28:07

Further, the oil-gold-euro bloc does not implement its plans in a vacuum. The dollar bloc surely has plans of its own, perhaps including currency and capital controls, just for starters.

I wonder what you gentlemen think the American take on the coming transition away from dollar supremacy to the free gold Euro/Dubai/Asian currency blocs (if indeed that's what happens), would be. Is this something that will turn into an all out currency war...or is the outcome an already agreed upon G-8 type solution with the U.S. making the most of it's time remaining as the printer of the world's reserve currency? Thanks for any and all responses.

I've been lurking here for 4 or 5 apologies if this subject has already been addressed.

968@ Tapper_Light#1358529/11/05; 14:11:50

A currency can be given reserve status by
a) political support
b) structural support

Ask yourself the question : what kind of support has the reserve currency today (from which factions and why) ?
These structures can't change (and it would be in nobody's interest) overnight. These things have to go VERY SLOWLY AND GRADUAL; you will see no currency war.
And above all : who wants to be blamed for having taken (stolen) the US currency reserve status ?

YGMTapper_Light#1358539/11/05; 14:26:27

At the risk of giving an overly simplistic reponse to your question, I would just say any transition will definately be gradual and planned. Consider that ALL CB's of the world are members of the BIS. As you say the CB's don't operate in a vaccum. Bankers will not make drastic changes without involvement and concern for each other in their 'House of Cards' banking system. The whole Fiat Currency/Banking mess is far too fragile at this point in history for a currency war. Where one fails, so go the others IMHO....YGM
GoldiloxGovernments "brought to heel"#1358549/11/05; 15:00:24

@ CP, et al

Your quote, "Yes, governments tend to lie about important things but democratic governments CAN be compelled to tell the truth eventually and even be brought to heel."

- is more salve than truth. Governments "admit" the truth only after they have had ample opportunity to rewrite it. WWII post-war history is a great example of that. Spin seems to always overcome truth, even when some truth "rocks the boat".

Liberty Head's description of history being owned and masssaged by government schools is so prevasive, one can argue the oil mess we are in can be attributed to the fact that energy research labs for the last four decades have found non-petroleum focused funds few and far between.

Now that oil is in trouble, big corps are again pushing for nuclear, which due to their own bad press was "out of favor". They favor it again for the simple reason it includes massive construction and maintenance projects for them to enjoy. Renewables just don't offer big business the same "control" opportunities.

Gandalf the WhiteWELCOME Sir Tapper_Light !!!#1358559/11/05; 15:27:53

Tapper_Light (9/11/05; 13:28:07MT - msg#: 135851)
You ask the BEST Questions !
If only I could answer, BUT, I am sure that there are ones here that shall try.
Thanks for ending your long "lurking era" !

BelgianGentlemens...#1358569/11/05; 15:34:56

As a pharmacist, I've spend quite some time with balances.
I continue to do this when observing the planet and try to come up with a "balanced" evaluation...always ready to adjust it, when nescesarry.

Indeed Sir MK, the many fractals that we can (partially)grasp, activate the intuitive urge versus gold (cfr. Knallgold). But I still don't agree with your view on Euroland & C°, when put on the balance with the AA faction of the globe.
After reading your post...I simply mumbled >>> Political Economy and its all embracing character. Have been putting this on the balance of course.
My conclusion (for the time being) remains the same : Euroland & C° is one step ahead (in its totality) versus the AA block.
An example from today's postings : CP suggests that we should not exclude sabotage on Dubai's expansion in gold matters. My immediate reaction we go again...not with that former (charming) Bonanza state of mind, but with an evil one (the beast). Euroland has left most of this attitude behind it...up until I see evidence of the contrary.

This brings us automatically back to gold : And more precisely the incredible idea that gold might be considered as a WMD !? Is Euroland-EMU and the gold-euro acting in a way that it could ever be labeled of having given to gold the force of mass destruction ? No is is NOT !
Is India with an estimated stash of 10,000 + tonnes of bullion, profiling itself as a dollar/US hater ? No it is not.

It is rather the dollar and the $-IMS that hates gold. And it is the non-dollar part of the globe that has no problem with goldmetal in possesion at all.
I wish to stick to the gold matters and not mix it up with the other aspects put on the balance.

The non AA world LIKES gold !!! Bullion as the consolidation of one's wealth. It is the AA world, with its giant financial industry, that has the paper-chase (the make money mantra) element (mentality) in its political economic system. A "Huge" fundamental difference between dollar and euro faction,, when put on the balance.

Consequently, it is from the euro side of the coin that freegold will rise and not from the AA side.

Recently a very reliable German research on opinion bureau (forgot the name) concluded from its public enquete that the Trans Atlantic freeze was deepening amongst the general public. The public was asked to put its EU/US perceptions into a balance. Increasingly positive for the Euro block and increasingly negative for the AA block. There is no doom thinking in Euroland. And we are very aware of the weaknesses of our collectivist (welfare state) political economy. But we are anticipating it, slowly but steadily.
Deficits under control, trade surplus and Big net savings with debt internally financed (not a drain).

Gold-euro is one of these anticipations to cushion the demographic shock that we have be seen coming already long ago.
In Manchester we concluded that more investment in oil exploration and pumping should be done. Nobody doomed about peak oil ! Simply because we know WHY the price of oil goes up...WHY this is organized with deliberate (purposely) decline of oil-investment. Quite another approach by the EU versus the oil-problem (rather the demands for exchanging equal value).
Hu (China) is visiting...Canada and Mexico. His visit to the US has been postponed !?
A re-enforced Koizumi (elections) might radicalize the AA attitude versus Asia.

All these fractals are to be separated and put on the right scale of the global balance ...increasingly getting out of balance . It is not a matter of what is right or wrong but only a matter of increasing unbalance/disharmony. And gold is an element in this and imo a VERY important one...for the AA block and the other side of the global coin as well.

Let's simply things : The euro currency/EMU strengthens when the POG goes up, whilst the dollar currency and $-IMS weakens with the POG rise ! Hope there is no doubt left about this !? Otherwise rethink the arch simple concept of MTM of gold reserves. Not only for the CBs, but for the gold-wealth-metal in your personal/private possession.
What an enormous luxuary advantage for the euro system and all who wish to leave the $-IMS and join the alternative (gold)euro-system. What a position of strength as to work on re-balancing the world. The perfect alternative to replace the dollar-reserve system at any given (appropiate)moment.

The concept is so revolutionarry in its simplicity that nobody dares to consider it seriously as to not have to face the dramatic changing consequences this will bring.

A planet that shifts more and more into dangerous unbalance is NOT walking massively to the slaughterhouse !

This month, $153 Billion was added to the less than one (1) month and there are 12 months in a year...>>>

Chris labels the ECB's MTM as "creative" book-keeping !? It is the AA financial brotherhood that rises the price of the Dow, the price of bonds, the price of to make one's book look very bright. But goldmetal in your vault is NOT a stock, not a bond debtpaper, not a fiat confetti digit, and not a house that is permanently taxed.

How revolutionarry would it be...having a goldcoin in your vault that can be priced freely in a market that cannot be dominated anymore by any financial brotherhood !? As a matter of fact...the entire non AA world just adores the idea (concept) and is working on it to make it happen. Remember the gold-dinar period ! What was the real significance behind this concept ? Nothing less than a free gold market. The non AA world doesn't want to hold erzats wealth that is being priced (not valued) by the $-IMS regime. That is the "cause" of the rising global imbalance and as I stated before a very difficult situation for Euroland to remain as neutral as possible (with its concept)!!!

I still remain amazed about the fact that the term "freegold" is oh so a difficult (impossible) notion, for many on this forum. The more so now that all can see that a goldprice rise is nothing more than a compensation for a declining dollar exchange rate. On top of that, the dollar's purchasing power declines much faster than its exchange rate and consequently the goldprice permanently loses purchasing power !!! HOW CAN ONE POSSIBLY SEE/EXPERIENCE THIS AS FREE PRICED GOLD...FREEGOLD...A FREE GOLDMARKET !? Don't you all see how the financial brotherhood has a section responsible for controlling the dollar/gold equation as to keep the $-IMS up and running !?
Do you really think that the non AA world wishes to go on living under such a dominant regime that pushes the entire planet out of balance !?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A world of gold at your fingertips...#1358579/11/05; 16:04:18">gold -- a global calling card
BelgianHoi Tapper_Light#1358589/11/05; 16:14:44

So many years a lurker without posting ? And now you bring this "giant" interesting question. Would like to know your view on the matters. Don't hesitate to join, please.

Imo, the $-IMS will transition into the €-IMS (yes it will)...if and when the dollar-reserve system is collapsing under the weight of its own mismanagement (cfr. YGM).
When all the participants/users/supporters of the $-system, realize that it cannot go on this (mismanaged) way.
Then, the entire load of political will will shift versus a compromise between the diverging factions. They will have to come to an agreement. But those main factions will have arrived at this moment of compromise at different strengths. Stronger (more adult) euro factions and a weaker (aging) dollar faction. That will then decide on who will have to accept who's terms. Concrete : will the dollar accept that a gold-euro comes in place of the dollar reserve, or not !? For as long as there is no agreement (modus vivendi) possible, the pressure on the $-system will continue to increase and the dollar's mismanagement will have to increase, because of the pressure.

That's why oil is testing the dollar and why the dollar doesn't want to ship gold, yet ! Imagine the dollar tries to buy time with gold shipping at today's obscene low prices. That's what I mean with "pressure" versus dollar defense.
Other pressure is in the field of $-monetary expansion. How exhuberant will the dollar handle its expansion (deficits !) ?

Do you remember 1999 and $253 POG ? That was the dollar's pressure on the euro ! Wich is plain vanilla evidence that a dollar is strong with a low goldprice and that a low goldprice weakens the euro !

It seems...SEEMS...that the currencies' struggle (€-$) has calmed down (?) But for how long ? I think that oil and Asia will decide this, rather than (neutral) Euroland.

GREAT question Tapper ! Thanks.

Gandalf the WhiteYELLOW -- P&F Chart ! -- SHHHHHHHHH!!! #1358599/11/05; 16:28:10$GOLD,PWTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

Are you ready for "BREAKOUT" ?

TownCrierBelgian, Tapper_Light, very good to see your thoughts on the anticipated U.S. position in all of this#1358609/11/05; 16:43:14

In a similar vein, you may want to have a look at the 'EPILOGUE' which was recently added to my previous 'conundrum' commentary in which a friend and I had an e-mail exchange briefly discussing very nearly this subject of motivations and reactions of the various parties.


GoldiloxWeak Euro#1358619/11/05; 16:45:32

@ Belgian,

"Do you remember 1999 and $253 POG ? That was the dollar's pressure on the euro ! Wich is plain vanilla evidence that a dollar is strong with a low goldprice and that a low goldprice weakens the euro !"

Wasn't the Euro at $1.19 when officially intro'd in 1999?

The Euro's downward move to $0.85 occurred while gold was strengthening from $250 to $350.

The $-gold inverse relationship seems more recent.

Maybe I'm missing your point?

GoldiloxDubya and Sir GS at lunch#1358629/11/05; 17:09:38


No one likes to admit to being dull, so occasionally the task of making the observation falls to others. George Bush is a case in point. All his friends tell us his is a keen mind that cuts right to the quick. Since many of them have known him since prep school people tend to believe them even when the evidence is overwhelming that he is in fact one of the country's duller presidents. The evidence is most often presented by his tongue that, embedded in an otherwise empty chamber, by its wagging gives voice to the vacuousness of his thought

One of its finer moments was during the New Orleans disaster. On the Thursday after New Orleans was wiped out by hurricane Katrina, Mr. Bush, invited a friend over for lunch. His choice of a luncheon companion at the time there were 25,000 people huddled in the Superdome in New Orleans without food, water or sanitary facilities and looting and a general crime spree were in full flower, was a strange one. Of all the people he might have invited to help him decide what to do, he, bereft of ideas to the extent he'd tried coming up with any, invited the 78-year-old Alan Greenspan over. Whatever Mr. Greenspan's skills, flood control and clean up are not among them. Not that that mattered. Relieving the distress of the people directly affected by the flood was not what was on the president's mind. As always, what was on the president's mind was money.

Describing his luncheon conversation with Mr. Greenspan, Mr. Bush was quoted in the Washington Post as saying: "We particularly spent a lot of time talking about the damage done to our energy infrastructure and its effect on the availability of the price of gasoline. [This was probably a tongue gone wild since the price will always be available. It's the gasoline that may go missing.] In our judgment we view this storm as a temporary disruption that is being addressed by the government and by the private sector." That was the kind of reassuring talk from a commander in chief that people who were homeless, starving and surrounded by dead bodies floating in the water, needed to hear.


I wonder whay Dubya and GS really talked about? My guess is something like:

"How high can we turn the spigot to fund "Reconstruction II"?

TownCrierGoldilox, on Belgian's $250 low#1358639/11/05; 17:25:08

Perhaps Belgian meant to point not to the August 1999 low but rather to the following $250-ish gold low that occurred in April 2001.

That period marked the middling point of the euro's double bottom against the dollar where the euro dipped to approx 81¢ in late Sept 2000 and dipped there again in July 2001.

You can see my helpful charts of this period at the url given. Click and scroll midway down the page.


mikalSpot and spike roam the night#1358649/11/05; 17:41:01

Spot market is OPEN! POG @ $449.20 + $.70

spikedogRe: C Powell and the openness of government, MK and socialism#1358659/11/05; 17:42:45

Chris makes the case that government should be open and honest with its citizens and when it is not, it is the citizens’ responsibility to keep their elected officials in line.

With this premise, I do not disagree.

However, I believe that our (US) elected officials are dealing with the results of giving us exactly what ‘we’ wanted. For the past 60+ years, the population of the US has been lining up at the hog trough fighting to get (more than) their share of the Congressional pork. It has been a very small minority that ever wanted government to be smaller (despite Mr. Reagan's overtures otherwise). It would seem that this country, at least mythically built on the premise of hard work and wise investing – has now descended to the level of open mouths and outstretched hands. This has become obvious in the wake of the pleas from the Katrina victims, "where is government to help me?"

I believe that this attitude stems from what I call "ground beef syndrome" – the concept that there is ground meat wrapped in plastic at the super market – but I had no idea it came from a COW! Similarly, people hope to get the fat, juicy government:
1) contracts
2) welfare checks
3) student loans
4) subsidized housing
5) subsidized farming
6) etc.
without ever stopping to stopping to think, "Hey, where is this money coming from?"

MK, is our brand of socialism really any better/worse than Europe's? At the very least, Europe's appears to be more honest. I am not waving Europe's socialism banner here as I am a "charity begins at home" advocate. If people took care of themselves and their families first by preparing for life's inevitable catastrophes and lesser dramas, many fewer people would fall through the cracks. Then we could easily take care of those very few without government taking a (rather large) slice of our benevolence.

Most of the posters here are staunch advocates of being prepared – probably the reason we are all here in the first place. I doubt most people would find what we do fun – or even educational. And the fact that we do it in our SPARE TIME!!!! Am I missing ‘American Idol’ for this?

Humbly submitted,

GoldiloxEuro / Gold#1358669/11/05; 19:02:45

Thanks TC,

Your charts helped me see the bigger picture on the Euro/gold ratios.

I don't mean to completely challenge Belgian's premise, but the Euro seemed less "directly" tied to POG than the US$, perhaps because gold is priced in $.

Perhaps "IF" the Euro challenges US $ hegemony, we'll see gold revert to a more "direct" (or indirect, as it may be) relationship to the Euro.

Is this what I am seeing?

Chris PowellReplies to Liberty Head, Goldilox, Tapper Light, Spikedog, and Belgian#1358679/11/05; 19:05:16

For Liberty Head and Goldilox: If Earth seems so hopeless to you both, all I can recommend is another planet, preferably one with Internet access so we can keep comparing notes here.

For Tapper Light: You ask what the American view would be on the transition from dollar supremacy to the free gold/euro/Dubai/Asian currency bloc or blocs. Just speculating, but perhaps the American view of that would be much like the American view of the decision of Saddam's regime in Iraq to start pricing its oil in euros. Maybe THAT was the REAL "weapon of mass destruction" in Iraq. I agree with YGM that central banks will work together to ease transitions and avoid shocks ... insofar as they can.

But is the U.S. government willing to let the dollar fall enough that those oceans of dollars and treasury bonds abroad start coming home for redemption into something real that doesn't depreciate? Do the foreign governments holding those dollars and treasury bonds not realize that their dollars can't really be redeemed quickly, if at all? If the foreign governments do realize it -- and surely they do -- do their holdings of dollars and treasury bonds not give them an interest in supporting the dollar and easing and stretching out its decline?

As far as I can see, the market-rigging schemes to support the dollar are still in operation all around the world.

For Spikedog: Yes, Americans have been incredibly spoiled by the unreal world their reserve currency has given them. The $52 billion appropriated by Congress just last week for hurricane relief was all deficit spending -- not a thought given to raising it by taxing or by economizing elsewhere. And why not? The foreigners are paying for the U.S. war in Iraq by lending the U.S. the money, so why shouldn't the foreigners pay for hurricane relief too -- except, of course, for the reprehensibility of asking them to? But the world lets us Americans get away with this.

How nice if the posters at this forum, who understand this and are spreading the word here, could get a little help from some foreign central banks via the occasional statement that they're going to stop buying U.S. government debt in six months or a year or so, waking Americans up while giving them a little time to adjust.

For Belgian: When I wrote that the U.S. government could declare gold a "weapon of mass destruction," I didn't mean to endorse such a position. But it is simply historical fact that gold possession has often been restricted by governments, and the gold price suppression scheme, in which the U.S. government and the Western European governments remain deeply involved, signifies the danger governments see in gold -- that is, their loss of power to set the value of everything.

I agree that the haters of gold are those who run the dollar currency bloc. Of course I would not consider any country's use of gold today to be aggression; rather it would be self-defense against U.S. dollar imperialism. But gold indeed is a weapon, and a powerful one. If gold was not so powerful, you would be spending less time here and more with your goldfish, and I'd be spending less time here and more with my vegetable garden ... and maybe even my family!

You write: "The euro currency/EMU strengthens when the price of gold goes up, while the dollar currency and $-IMS weakens with gold's rise." I do not have handy the necessary charts, but I've read lately that gold has been rising in euro terms as well as dollar terms. And does the euro rise because gold rises, as you suggest, or simply because the dollar is falling against everything else in a world where the currency choice remains pretty stark, a choice essentially between the dollar and everything else?

You write: "Chris labels the ECB's MTM 'creative bookkeeping'!?" Well, I don't think I was as positive as that; rather I meant to be speculating. In any case, as I think I wrote, what the ECB lists as the value of its gold reserves is less important than what the ECB does or contemplates doing with those reserves.

Indeed, if the euro is independent of gold, as the late Wim Duisenberg has been quoted here as saying, why does the ECB hold gold reserves in the first place? If the ECB's marking its gold reserves to market is support for Duisenberg's boast that the euro is independent of both gold and nation-states, I remain skeptical and unimpressed -- and perhaps just ignorant. For the U.S. Treasury could mark its gold reserves to market and what difference would it make? Does anyone now take seriously the Treasury's gold bookkeeping price of $42 per ounce, a price that has no application to anything? So what if the ECB is marking its gold reserves to market when that market is still rigged by central bank gold sales and leasing, and rigged in large part by the ECB itself! For the "market" price of gold is not a market price at all; it is simply the price at which central banks are prepared to continue to dishoard their gold so as to defend their own currencies.

Independent of gold or not, the euro, like the dollar, has a price in gold, and gold has a price in euros and everything else. Is the ECB truly indifferent to gold's price in euros -- or indifferent to the price of any currency or strategic commodity in euros? Or does the ECB not monitor those exchange rates closely, as any central bank might, considering those exchange rates to be gauges of the success of the central bank's management?

As long as gold is a currency, it would seem that NOTHING that has a price is really independent of gold.

Further, the ECB has aspirations for the euro to become a reserve currency, which it already is becoming. By definition a reserve currency is a currency issued in such abundance that it becomes held in large quantities outside its own jurisdiction and is used in international trade so much that a great bulk of its float is never repatriated. That is the potential for empire building and imperialism. Of course U.S. imperialism is in the here and now and European imperialism is but a speculation. But can the operators of a reserve currency forever resist the imperialist temptation?

While the ECB may aspire to a free gold price as a strategy for replacing the dollar, the ECB is helping to rig the gold price and the rest of the currency markets now, so where is the assurance that once the euro replaces the dollar, the euro's operators won't seek to preserve their position by rigging the gold price and the other currency markets again?

Perhaps the assurance is that, by then, Asia will have most of the gold and won't let the gold price be determined anywhere else?

Of course I too want a free-market gold price, now and for all time; it would be a powerful force and perhaps the decisive force against imperialism. (Maybe the quickest route to free gold would be for all governments to dishoard all their gold reserves, for central bank reserves inevitably are used to rig the currency markets.) If the ECB's maneuvering helps get us to a free gold market, fine. I just think that accomplishing it is going to take a lot more than the ECB's bookkeeping entries.

OvSBelgian!#1358689/11/05; 19:17:14

You are exerting too much
influence over our minds:
ie: Goldilox's msg#:135861
Instead of "which" he is
spelling it now like you:
"wich"...Seems like your
mindbending pharmaceutical
concoctions are seeping
through the internet...OvS

Cavan ManThis incessant debate......#1358699/11/05; 19:17:42

......on free gold and GATA et al....Dear friends...what we can value and hold close is what we can SEE clearly--what we can use as a knowledge base for our OPINIONS is revealed, primarily in black and white. CB's and governments have a long, documented history when it comes to monetary matters. Remember, opinions are wonderful when supported by FACTS (the unambiguous kind) and reason. All else is pissing in the wind.

PS to MK: Good to see your (excellent) intellect at work here. We are soon drawn asunder....CM

GoldiloxOpenness#1358709/11/05; 19:19:34

@ Spikedog,

While I certainly won't contradict your suggestions about what is wrong with our "government welfare system", I find it hard to lay the blame for this on "openness".

One of the attitudes that most nurtures the government trough is that there is "no piper to pay". I think this is generated by statements like Dick Cheney's flippant remark that "deficits don't matter" - not that he has any copyright on this attitude.

While I'm not sure that gold money entirely "fixes" the problem, demanding "accountability", and "openness", in government, business, and personal lives certainly seems a step in the right direction.

The most telling thing about our current fiscal predicament is that Congress has so very few "Ron Paul's" preaching fiscal conservatism. Where is Davy Crockett when we really need him?

Goldilox"Wich"#1358719/11/05; 19:25:57

@ OvS,

Au Contrare! I was taught that when quoting someone, it is improper to correct their grammer, spelling, etc.

Thus I quoted Belgian "exactly".

It might also stem from my admiration of Samuel Clements, whose poetic street verbage suffers viciously from the editor's knife.

miner49erThe double-edged sword cuts more than one swath?#1358729/11/05; 19:48:16

A while back when TC posted his thoughts on the "conundrum" that Alan Greenspan made reference to -- this stubborness of the long end of the yield curve in USTs to behave like history and the textbooks say it should -- I engaged a very dear friend in this discussion. I posited how Mr. Greenspan's CB colleagues probably were biting their lips, as they (as well as Alan) know there is no conundrum, and that there are tools in the toolchest to keep the long end under control. They know the mechanics of why the yield curve is flattening. What Alan is, is frustrated. Frustrated because the mechanisms to keep the curve normal are not in fully in his hands at this time. This presents a dilemma, more than a conundrum. I want to look at 3 elements that work to keep the long end strong.

On the one hand, and most superficially, is that there are still plenty of people that still genuinely, and not without substantial argument, do not see an inflationary period ahead, but one of disinflation or deflation. Individuals such as these still control a ton of money in their portfolios, and are still betting on a strong bond market in the foreseeable future. Chiefly the argument centers around vast over-capacity, and competitive pressures manifest in downward pressure on wages globally. One of the best articulated statements of this viewpoint can be found in Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt's quarterly reviews that you can find online at

While this is the most superficial (because it is most obvious) of the components in this analysis, it is not trivial. Globally there are still a lot of people that are (have to be) very cautious with what they do with the gargantuan sums of money under their control, and to buy into an inflationary viewpoint, which will only come about with a full paradigm change in the monetary superstructure, is something these people cannot hastily buy into. Whether they get caught short is a matter of discussion. Nonetheless, these enormous sums of money change direction very slowly.

Second in consideration, would be the overwhelming dominance in the financial markets of leveraged speculation. The vast proliferation of these entities have made it valid to say, "it IS different this time." And, I contend that while precedent is there in numerous instances, even in the recent past, for a rate curve inversion, it will be very difficult for this to happen in this day because of the dominance of leveraged speculation that has positioned itself in various arbitrage and spread bets in anticipation of a continuation of a normalized yield curve relationship.

The chief reason that we have this seemingly endless cycle of capital flows that keeps the US capital account flush, is the existence of hedge funds. Without the hedge funds, foreign entities would have only three basic things to do with imported dollars: 1) short term cash holdings -- bills, notes, CDs; 2) long term dollar denominated securities -- bonds, equity holdings, real property; or 3) sell dollars into the forex markets.

In this world, the conventional text book economics 101 principles would work out quite well. Banking intermediaries, risking disproportionate maturity mismatching would only be able to borrow short from the foreign entities, and lend into longer dated notes to capture the spread to just such a point before they went out of bounds in terms of risk. The dollar holders would be forced to accept smaller yields, and the lending intermediaries would demand higher returns. The resulting steepening of the yield curve would put downward pressure on the dollar, making dollar consumers pay more for imports, and make dollar exports more competitive. Just like the text books say. Foreign dollar holders would also be more likely to just sell dollars into the foreign exchange markets, putting further downward pressure on the dollar. There may then be times when foreign holders would find good value in longer dated securities, or outright business ventures, and this would take place in conventional market-driven terms, again with textbook macro- and micro-economic principles at work.

The presence of the leveraged speculator throws this all out the window. When conventional borrow-short-lend-long, the cornerstone of traditional banking, starts to become lopsided, the ability to offload the risks inherent in disproportionate maturity mismatching is presented by the leveraged speculator. (Securitization of the loan portfolio is another way this is done, to great advantage of the lenders, and has also worked tremendously in keeping the cycle of capital inflows going for so much longer than conventional wisdom ever could have foreseen. And even the life of securitization of loan portfolios has been extended way beyond convention by the transformation of these loan portfolios into synthetic entities, and divvying up the risk in the security into tranches -- different flavors for different investor tolerances...)

Now, the bank can have its cake and eat it too, by finding someone that will take on the risks, for the lucrative rewards, by derivatizing the bet. While the bank still secures and commands the monumental notional monies, they carve up the agreement to define and parcel out the risk element, in this simple example the interest rate risk. The LS is happy to be able to earn the spread on other people's money -- notional amounts his own typically highly undercapitalized venture holdings could never secure outright. And these bets would not be practical or profitiable unless they are made in such super-sized quantities. He is betting he can augur the trend, and In a day when it behooves CBs to be more transparent, the LS has been largely successful in these bets. So far a win-win.

Foreign dollar holders can even bypass the banks and deal with the hedge funds directly, if they so wish. This has tremendous impact on the exchange rate of the dollar, and helps explain why we see this anomaly also present itself so frequently: that when the long end burps and experiences a short term precipitous drop, the US dollar usually goes up very suddenly and strongly. Despite there being a secular trend of dollar devaluation, these short term movements indicate the presence of large amounts of leveraged betting from foreign speculators.

Two things cause the recovery of the long end, and the strengthening of the dollar: 1) betting strategies and formulas calculate the downward drop as an aberration -- too much too soon -- and the betting strategy says to buy into this temporary weakness; 2) LS players get margin calls, and have to liquidate non-dollar holdings, and compete suddenly for dollars, exposing temporary shortages in dollars and causing the often sharp spikes in dollar recovery we see on an intraday basis. These dollars going into margin accounts typically buy liquid dollar securities, the proceeds of which then go into bonds which are now temporarily "underpriced" to avail themselves of an advantageous spread -- this too usually by other LS's -- and things return to "normal" with the mechanics of simple arbitrage.

Not complicated really, but it seems few people consider the impact of this activity, not so much for its existence, but for the absolutely incomprehensible volume of it, and the impact it has on the indices.

The leveraged speculators -- despite all the words to the contrary -- are 100% indispensible in this paradigm, and the US dollar faction has no choice but to support them at all costs. Without the LS, the cycle of capital flows we have seen as something of a financial phenomenon, allowing us to run trade and current account deficits of unheard of proportions, would never have happened. And, from it, we can never return. Since IR bets overwhelmingly dominate the compostion of derivative bets, we can no longer tolerate any sustained inversion of the yield curve. So, unless the long end decides to follow the play book, there is a very real ceiling ahead for the short end.

Frustrating, and a dilemma. But no conundrum.

The third thing to look at, which may be the smallest in terms of quantitative contribution, but perhaps much larger in terms of potential influence, is what our TC pointed out a few weeks back -- the plausibility that foreign banks may be buying more long dated US securities with their dollars, then previously. The statement he emphasized amounts to the first edge of this two-edged sword. I.e., the public statement of "confidence" in the dollar, by their willingness to hold long dated debt. But, in the same vein that we perceive foreign CBs supporting the current paper gold regime to publicly give the impression of dollar credibility (first edge), while at the same time never letting the gold price rise enough to successfully hedge dollar devaluation or systemic price inflation (second edge), might the more potent reason such a strategy be employed in the treasury market be to confound the US strategy of slow but steady IR hikes? Might a deliberate strategy to keep the long end down, serve as another catalyst to expose the untenableness of the U.S. financial system, the grotesqueness of the face under the mask?

As noted above, the Fed effectively has a ceiling on the short end, unless they can "wag" the long end, lest they risk inversion, and chaos in the derivatives' markets. The Fed wants to keep raising rates in nice measured teaspoons for 3 chief reasons: 1) to allow time for portfolio adjustement -- chiefly among the dominating LS community; 2) to cause a slow leak in the super-hyper-inflated housing market (and the associated refi dislocations); and 3) to provide more wiggle room for a subsequent period in which they will want to lower rates again to restart the economic engines.

So far, lenders have scarcely stopped for a moment of silence in respect to rate increases. The long end remains almost iron cast within a range, and the housing/refi markets, encouraged by this, continue their party unfazed and unabated. Thinning spreads from crowded trading among LS's, are met with stronger doses, as the difference is made up with even more volume, which is readily found from ever increasing trade deficit dollars, and readily lent to an endless appetite for mortgage lending.

Would that Alan could control all levers in the airplane, and bring it home for a "soft landing." But alas he does not. Like spoilt children, the LS's control the parents, and will get whatever they want. So, the long end does not budge, and cannot be forced by a Fed induced inversion, because this could mean catastrophe.

As such, the short end ceiling of about 4+% does not leave much room for any reversal into aggressive rate cutting to shove liquidity (financial adrenaline) into slumping markets. The current cycle of increasing deficits balanced by increasing capital inflows continues. If a soft landing could be engineered, and the real estate, and credit bubbles go phhhh... instead of pop, we might actually see the non-$ plans for a new monetary paradigm themselves get frustrated.

The ensuing disinflation or deflation, in a world already stuffed to the gills in over-investment, and low wages, with an infrastructure that architecturally channels money away from domestic development, and into furthering the dollar consumption cycle, cannot tolerate much more of a consumption downturn. With dollar hegemonics still stifliing domestic investment in foreign countries, the infrastructure is not poised to just turn its back on the current framework. Like it or not, the Fed's strategy, if left unchallenged, might still lead to another 97-98 crushing contraction in the non-$ world, and a hot money surge back into the $ world, and suddenly it's deja vu all over again.

This is a fear of the foreign CBs, who cannot tolerate another go round of this. This is why they must employ the second edge of the sword in the gold markets, and also very possibly in the Treasury markets. The existence of the derivatives leviathan, although out of control, by its nature allows the current paradigm to continue far longer than we can stay liquid (smile Mr. Keynes). A benign stance by foreign CBs only gives the Fed more ability to get its way, and more time.

What about high oil prices? Yes, a bit of a spanner in the works, but on its own only further promulgates the disinflation/deflation argument, as the inflation it causes only serves to further reduce demand. This would lead to stagflation globally, and the political pressure on the engineers of a new monetary paradigm, just might cause someone to blink, and then all would blink, and a frantic race to the bottom would commence (again), as few and less profitable exports are still better than no exports at all, so every nation state for itself.

The euro might in this world totter, as players still not fully recognizing the architectural independence of the currency from the nations associated with the currency, and still by the very composition of their portfolios, may take all sorts of reflexive action based on what they know, and not on the basis of what is being presented to them as new. This would mean a faltering of the euro, a return to the dollar, and suddenly the game goes into extra innings.

The gold markets appear to be drying up in terms of a willingness to supply just that extra measure of liquidity to keep a semblance of credibility. Volume in LBMA is continuously dropping, which keeps contract prices low by reason of demand -- not just oversupply. (Just mho, but it seems that the presence over the past couple years of more unusual coins in CPMs offerings, may be anecdotally an indicator of gold holders reaching deeper for something to put in the display window.)

So, if credibility is not fostered in the gold markets for much longer, and the dollar derivative beast is still able to suck foreign capital into a dollar hegemony vortex, what additional active behavior might be taken on the part of CBs to show a public face of cooperation, but engineer further exposure of a failing system? A surging gold market might indeed leave CBs free to start looking at successful lending into their own domestic markets, without fear of their reserves (as only dollar forex) contracting, as their gold would hold its own. But this would take time to manifest into actual plant and equipment, and too much possibility exists in the interim for destabilization. Hence, the desire for global CBs to extend the transition. This is also an achilles heel that dollar forces wish to play upon -- they know foreign countries cannot afford to lose the dollar export market just yet, and that they still have them by the proverbial short hairs.

So, it is incumbent upon foreign CBs to continue with 2-edged sword strategies. And in the bond market, it would seem that with little pain, they can buy up bond offerings left and right, and keep the long end at bay. This traps the dollar into a box. Even if the global economy sags into a painful contraction, the Fed's inability to aggressively provide liquidity for any sustained period of rate cuts, as well as the lack of a robust market interest in long dated US debt (foreign money market perception that it is over-priced -- due to artificial support from CBs as hypothesized, and magnified by derivatives activity), would permit at the very best a shadow repeat of the past, with the Fed pushing on a Japanese-like string in terms of reliquefying the credit markets, and only warm money rivulets into the dollar markets, instead of the hot seething lava flows of the past.

Without a reinvigorated dollar, the hegemonic paradigm it enjoys would suffer a significant blow, and out of the ashes would rise not one core hegemonic phoenix, but potentially a bunch of smaller phoenices, i.e., capital financing of a host of well-educated, skilled, developed and developing peoples, made so by years of being agents of production for a dollar empire, now champing at the bit to capitalize on pent up domestic demand.

Yet nothing is guaranteed, and some things can take a lot longer than even the experts on the inside believe. I think the extent to which the dollar has survived has been underestimated, again in this time. Not whether it will eventually wilt into the marginalization, but when. By the tone of things (at least those made public) since WAG2, those wanting to see a break from a dollar-centric world financial system, are getting antsy. In the line of thinking discussed here, and held by several at the forum, the freeing up of the gold price is integral to a shift in the world monetary frame, and that this is just as much an act of political will as the current leashing of the gold price. The distinct thing to note, as Belgian mentioned earlier (and as has been stated hundreds of times here), is that the general lilliputian public stands to benefit by gold ownership, as gold is freed from monetary association, whereas gold ownership is frustrated in the current setting where gold is suppressed to keep the currency numeraire appear strong and stable.

Those wishing to benefit by a freed up gold price, cannot passively wait for fundamentals to play out, as the dynamics of today's financially hyper-engineered world, within a seemingly impregnable dollar fortress, make irrationality almost rational. Life through the looking glass may be fine for a children's story, or a rich source of allegory for the temporal and fickle ways of men, but will not sustain itself in the long run. As in FOA's river, the sometimes contradictory movement and activity at any given point is ultimately always overwhelmed by the overall coursing of the timeless river endlessly to the sea.

OvSGoldilox#1358739/11/05; 20:03:57

I stand corrected. But I always
thought Belgian was "putting-on"
his spelling mistakes to stay
From that angle correcting his
spelling would be tantamount to
"exposing" him? OK. That's too
twisted to explain here.
My input to this great give-and-
take happening here for the last
view days is:
If you take a finer mesh and view
it not as Euro vs. Dollar faction
a lot of mystery would vanish. It
would illuminate cross-currents
that are not obviously seen from
this round-table discussion. Un-
fortunately such talk cannot be
conducted on an open internet
medium. Some things can only be
honestly discussed privately, un-
less one is naive. OvS

GoldiloxEarth#1358749/11/05; 20:06:19


Did you just suggest that I would blame the Earth itself for the corruption in what passes for government these days. You're one of the last people from whom I would have suspected such vituperation! If you don't believe the root sources of collusion should be addressed, why are you whining about the teeny-tiny "gold market"- only because it is your personal "cash cow"?

Assuming that gold market collusion is completely independent of other market/banking corruption is incredibly naive. No professorial points for that weak [lack of] connection!

Are you really willing to "excuse" the FED from any potential causal relationship in our fiscal nightmares? Better dust off your copy of "Creature from Jeckyll Island". To unravel the little mysteries, you're gonna have to look at the bigger picture at some point.

For a real philosophical mind-opener, I invite you to listen to Alex Merklinger's interviews with "Cliff" of Web Bot fame Sept 1 and Sept 6.

Have a good investigation -

Liberty HeadThanks For The Recommendation CP#1358759/11/05; 20:21:06

But I'd rather deal with a hopeless situation than an imaginary situation.

Best Wishes

goldquestIn The Meantime,#1358769/11/05; 20:38:38

Gold tip-toes through $450! I see $500 on the horizon!
SmeagolLooks to uss, like....#1358779/11/05; 21:39:29

...another Archive in the making this passt week! We wishes we could jusst remember it all! Thank every one of you for the great Thoughtses... sss... even chased a lurker or two out into the firelight (welcome!)! (cackle)


OvSIf I may paraphrase Miner49er#1358789/11/05; 22:04:20

We lilliputian public
perceive the irrational
as almost rational. Were
it not for the Masters of
the Universe's archilles
heel: The derivative beast,
whose hot seething lava-
flows of the past, is a rich
source of allegory for the
temporal and fickle way of men
who are but a droplet in the
timeless river, endlessly cour-
sing to the endless sea. OvS

Gene(No Subject)#1358799/11/05; 22:20:46

Yeah, wait until the morning & they knock silver down to $6.98 & gold down to $448 or lower on each. I'm convinced in their omnipitence.The a$$hole$. What's the saying, "Don't fight the Fed".
Sundeck@TC - Inverting Yield Curve - Outstanding Response#1358809/11/05; 23:08:19

Sir TC

I have not forgotten your question in #135279 of 24Aug05 has been often in my mind...but I have put off responding for one reason or another until I got "a round tuit".

Well...the round tuit finally arrived in the form of Miner49er's analysis of much greater depth and breadth than I could have delivered...

May I just refer you to #135872 and sign my name at the bottom?


(Pretty good stuff 49er!)


PRITCHO@ Mas - -Re Privateer -- Post 135842 @ge#1358819/11/05; 23:19:45

I have been subscribing for quite some time now & find his views to be very well thought out & realistic as to what's really happening -- regardless of where he's commenting about.Value for money well spent. He gives separate views on Gold which I usually don't post.

Be careful though with the length of his material you post & always give credit by posting his website details. It is jealously guarded copyrite --and failure may bring trouble.

I have been on the receiving end of a blast from him for posting (some time ago & another site)his material even though it wasn't over lengthy & I did give full credits.
@ge - - Thanks for the help re Hoye.

BelgianGood morning#1358829/12/05; 03:36:23

Randy msg#135860 : The paragraph you refer to is (imo) as perfect as can possibly be. But is that (great) conclusion fully understood by all on this forum ?

>>>...CBs buying time..Shift in reserve structure...

I'm trying (with great pleasure) to translate these observations...unambiguous facts (smile CM) into a non cryptic language (old bad habit).

Miner-49er (Hoi mate) adds his full (intellectual) weight on the matters with a comprehensive reflexion. INDEED Sir...THERE IS NO CONUNDRUM !!! And your complete analysis of the "buying time" must be very close to reality. More later on your (excellent) post.

Goldi : Perfect critical reactions of yours ! But sometimes I use the form of soundbite (wich I hate) to make the point ! How can I possibly describe in full detail how the "timing" isn't fully in sync with the underlying maneuvers ? It is about the fundamental : euro and gold are to be associated opposite than dollar and gold. When I should start elaborating on this by presenting the full analysis on what happens day after day on this front (the market-?)...everybody would be bored to such an extend that they simply miss the point and never think/consider it ever again. And then the dialoque continues without having a fundamental fact included.
That's why Randy fastly included the double dip ($253). Remember the old soundbite : WHY was the euro exchange rate knocked down to 0,85...And was it possible that it recovered so fast as to run up to 1,36 ?

Today I'm pulling your attention on the euro/dollar exchange rate again with the question : How come that the € exch. rate stopped declining EXACTLY at a very important support level of 1,20 !? Answer : Don't you, cartel of financial forces, dare to push the euro down...under the limits that our supporters (oil) agree on as to not disturb the unfolding of the €-gold-oil building. That's when the currency competition calmed down (Tapper-!).

Today, the gold-pricing is also becoming more and more involved in the "unfolding". More later.

CP : I enjoy your challenging views. Those outside US$ will NEVER come home (US) !!! NEVER.
This arch simple concept is the whole explanation for all the WHYs that can possibly be brought up. This one simple idea is NOT a conondrum.
That's WHY the entire planet lets you Americans get away with it (it=$-expansion).

OvS : I don't understand your msg#135873 in "wHich" you say "exposing Belgian" etc. Common man, what's the problem.

An unambiguous (old) fact for Sir Cavan Man : Wim was pictured in the Amsterdam gold vault with in the background the 400 ounce yellow bricks. He said that gold will remain an important monetary asset ! Have you ever seen Volcker or Alan pictured (filmed) in Fort Knox ?
The more I watch the present facts...the more I attach importance/deep significance to the Wim and gold life/real time, picture ! What's the degree of ambiguaty here ?

Miner-49er, mentions AGAIN the "ENTANGLEMENT" of the dollar and gold ! Very recently, goldobservers seemed to have discovered some (mysterious) kind of delinking of gold from currencies. Of course, no WHY question and no investigation into the real motives (maneuvers-purposes) behind the fenomenon. Classify it with all the other "conondrums" and then all is said and done for public consumption.

Oil (Dubai) says to the cartel of financial brotherhoods : Don't knock the goldprice down...or we increase the oilprice pressure ! That's the real meaning of the struggles. But the media will NEVER-EVER say the word "struggle" wHich in fact is rather a fight. "Conondrum" sounds so much nicer.

The past 3 decades, the dollar (its management) has been critizised on and on, whilst the planet kept on using it...and stored it as RESERVE. Today, some observers dared to question the dollar's -reserve- function, and that is one step too far. Italian sympathicos retaliated with the pathetic (selfdestructive) cry for leaving EMU. Next step will be the suggestion that "modern gold" might be an excellent reserve ! When...the goldpricing escapes from the $-entanglements.
Just trying to put the seemingly unsignificant "events" into a context...not for the sake of giving these events more importance than they deserve...but to communicate more understanding of what exactly lives behind the screens.

OvSBelgian#1358839/12/05; 04:12:45

Sorry; I did not mean that
kind of exposure. It's
twisted logic meant to save
my face vs. Goldilox's valid
objection. If I can't un-
twist it, I'll fall back on
my poet's license...
Miner49's comments shows the
breadth of input for this
forum which is astounding.
I wish I could spend more
time here and prepare my own
messages with more delibera-
tion wich time-wise is not
possible. Cheers. Up and on-
ward. OvS

Belgian@ CP#1358849/12/05; 04:39:25

The one and only reason why the dollar (and the $-IMS) remains supported is extremely simple : Changes (smooth and enduring ones) cannot take place on an economic graveyard !!!

Foreign CBs will continue to take in excess dollars as reserves, for the same reason. It is exactly on this terrible graveyard picture, that the dollar's (abusive) management is based !
That's why the answer to get out of the terrible choice is to gradually replace the dollar reserve with gold-reserves, without needing to throw the dollar out of the door...BECAUSE THE GOLD RESERVE REVALUATION WILL BE HHHHHHHUUUUUUUUGGGGE !!!

You still look at €-$ and €/$-POG through the $-gold entanglement spectacles : The fighting (opposing) price and exchange rate movers are both maneuvering as to keep the complex "-out and in-" , this entanglement. Remember all the mis-interpretation of the sudden €-POG rise through a 15 yrs old ceiling (350 €)!

And now the most important reflexion : Indeed...Of course MTM means zero...WHEN GOLD IS NOT TRADED FREELY !!!
What you should see now is the maneuvering out of an UNFREE GOLD MARKET INTO A FREE GOLD MARKET !!!

You and I are very free to trade our shrimpy ounces under a goldprice fixed regime...but...the giants who can (and do)trade the 400 ounces bars are NOT as free as they want (demand) to be. This happened in the period 1971 to its climax in 1980 ! The "DOLLAR" price of the metal was catapulted into the stratosphere and those giant gold(reserve) uptakers had no choice to stop chasing the yellow. On top of that...GOLD STAYED WITHIN ITS DOLLAR ENTANGLEMENT...because there was no euro alternative gold concept (MTM) !!!

Keeping gold-wealth-reserve in your vault that remains priced (not valued) by the dollar regime is worthless. Your gold-reserves are priced by a fraudulent dollar and not by a numeraire (euro) that wishes to have a gold-reserve that is VALUED by a free market...ONLY POSSIBLE WHEN IT IS PHYSICAL GOLD THAT IS TRADED ...not manipulative goldpaper derivatives !

BelgianOnwards ...(OK Ovs)#1358859/12/05; 05:19:13

@ CP : Duisenberg was not at all the type of a boaster. On the contrary.
Rigging the gold markets and the temptation of imperealism :
In fact, the gold markets have never been "rigged" in the true sense of this word. Gold, its price/pricing have been managed and now that we are in the transition period, just call the action >>> maneuvering.

The past 3 decades of gold-management brought us VERY cheap oil on wich the fundamental of our western prosperity have been build !

Euroland has NO intention to develop imperialistic tendencies !!! WE HAD TWO BIG LESSONS CHRIS...two devastating, horrible lessons against wich today's atrocities are nothing !!! Shhh WHICH...

The final purpose is NOT replacing an abusive dollar-regime with an as abusive euro-regime !!! It is about a FREE GOLD MARKET that makes a very good chance to stop the creation/fabrication of endangering unbalances in a globalizing world. A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD !!! Unfortunately misunderstood by the states that were lured by the IMF tactics in replacing/exchanging their gold reserves for more of the same dollar reserves !!! It is in this context that 986 " Mr.Sleeper in South Afrika " post, must be seen.
He was suggesting the SA government to adopt the MTM concept. WHY do you think China and Russia are having a goldmining rush/bonanza on their territories (unlisted companies of course) !?
They are NOT digging for more paperdollars but for the metal that can be traded in a free setting REVALUATION proces. Those new rising powerblocks want to get rid of the dollar regime that continues to price their currencies, their labor/sweat and degrade them to a dollar-derivative. The only way out is a gold reserve that is universally freely traded and priced into a numeraire that stands behind the concept.

This what is the whole debate about gold NOT being $-money anymore but a universally free exchangeable wealth tangible.
Not the trade of (papergold)forgeries...false copies of the real physical gold. We want to trade the original "Mona Lisa" and not the endless amounts of copies of it.

What is the (intrinsic and lasting) value of holding a massive overpriced stock with a pro forma book-keeping !? ZERO.
Idem dito for any bond (debtpaper) that is valued by the pricing policies of the underlying currency.

When internationally valued pieces of art are traded, the price setting cannot be managed. Those who change the value-tangible from hand to hand (physical possession) agree on the real price that fully "values" that wealth tangible. Simply because there are no Mona Lisa certificates/contracts traded !!! This is a 100% "PHYSICAL" affair as real markets should be. Here we are talking/dealing not about/with what has to be perceived as "money"...but the exchange/trade of WEALTH !

Is this kind of concept an imperialistic tendency ?

BelgianThe Steve Forbes " CAMPAIGN" !?#1358869/12/05; 05:48:32

Steve states : The price of crude oil will fall/crash to $35 pb ! Waw.

Is a rising oilprice (oil revaluation) a too imperialistic challenge for our beloved Pax Amerikana !?

Can oil be traded FREELY !?

I abstain jumping to early conclusions...but...this official (non cryptic) campaign by such an important/influent person / extremely significant in the present context. Let's wait and see whilst storing this (factual) statement in our memories.

BelgianMiner49er#1358879/12/05; 07:01:35

Can the usagold administration put Miner49er's post in the archives, PLEASE.

This is a perfect comprehensive (detailed) description of what is presently happening (unambiguous facts-smile again CM).

...these "enormous" sums of money (?) change direction very slowly...
Not only emphasis on "enormous" but fast/faster rising volumes (sums).

...securitization, paperization, contracts, derivitization, arbitrage >>> financial adrenaline : Not adrenaline but "atropine" to neutreulize the unstoppable chronic poisoning. The rise (and fall) of the LS(leveraged speculators > opportune gamblers) that were made (grow into) 100% indispensable.

...thinning spreads > increasing volume = The frantic search for (virtual-!) return.

Indeed miner49er, there still is a (pragmatic) accodomative political will for avoiding any kind of crash >>> The graveyard !

...frustration of the non-$-plans for a new monetary paradigm... : Frustration ? Impatience ? Unfavorable circumstances ?...other ?

...extend the transition, or lose the $-export market...
German exporters generally don't share this thought.

...leashing of the goldprice...
A very high probability imo.

Miner49...What you have been (correctly) describing is the catch 22 content of the global situation. Once one catches this...the ultra simple conclusion is as obvious as clear water.

Thank you VERY much Sir !

contrarianminer's post#1358889/12/05; 08:26:05

I second that...I think it a brilliant analysis, and it's going to take awhile to get my mind around it...definitely one for further discussion, and deserving of the's also disturbing, showing the massive economic hairball that has been created, but in the end, I think the K cycle will prevail, delay notwithstanding, and paper will die a miserable and well deserved death...although the implications for this nation and the world are staggering...and the game has only just begin, with 9/11 and Katrina being only the first volleys...perhaps another exogenous event coming up...and I've told a friend in California to stock up on water and foodstuffs!
Tapper_Light(No Subject)#1358899/12/05; 09:17:53

Thank you for your welcomes and answers. I came to this forum and other sites to try and understand why the price of gold wasn't responding the way it was "supposed" to. Until recently, I made my living in the gold mining industry and my life has been directly affected by much of what is discussed here. I have a great appreciation for the contributors and sponsor of this great forum and to others who contribute to the ongoing discussion/debate about gold/currencies.

Belgian says,"Imo, the $-IMS will transition into the €-IMS (yes it will)...if and when the dollar-reserve system is collapsing under the weight of its own mismanagement"

Does the revalution or setting free of the gold price have to happen after a complete collapse of the dollar IMF or has the Euro(MTM) given the U.S. and the rest of the world a time frame for the transition (Washington agreements)? Will the Euro wait indefinitely for the dollar collapse before they quit supplying the physical gold to keep the market functioning?

GoldiloxGold demand seen holding strong#1358909/12/05; 09:18:05


From the Middle East, which is gearing up for the holy month of Ramadan, to India, which is set to celebrate the post-monsoon festival season, record demand for precious metals is continuing, a Bank of Nova Scotia report said Monday . . .

In India, demand for gold and silver remains robust. "We anticipate higher-than-usual demand over the remainder of the year for several reasons," the bank said. "Agricultural revenues in India should be above average due to better-than-expected monsoons ' . . .

Gold prices have climbed in recent months as record oil prices have sparked concern about inflation and as investors bought gold as a safe haven in a time of economic uncertainty. The move has sent the S&P/TSX capped gold sub-index up about 9 per cent since the end of July.

Demand, meantime, hasn't slowed.

Over the summer, "market participants have become comfortable buying metal at any sign of weakness in prices, and this has resulted in busier than usual activity throughout the Asian and Middle Eastern markets," Scotiabank said.

In the Middle East, Iran and Iraq have seen a big jump in gold demand this summer. "Iran seeing the benefits of higher oil prices, a stable currency and a brighter political outlook, while Iraq is seeing a flight to safety as people look to gold for liquidity, security and a tangible store of wealth," said Bernard Hunter, director of the precious metals division.

In Thailand, rumours of a clampdown on gold imports to reduce the country's trade deficit have prompted a surge in gold imports as people try to hoard the metal, he added.

GoldiloxGasoline demand falling along with prices#1358919/12/05; 10:15:51

CNBC is interviewing Trilby Lundberg who sees the post-Labor Day relaxing of gasoline prices (no gouging, of course) falling further than usual as a result of two factors:

1) Hurricane areas show no retail demand, as people and businesses are still "mostly shut-in"

2) Higher prices are moderating driving behavior to more conservative style.

Wholesale gas is currently hovering at $1.90, well below its post Katrina peak.

DruidBelgian (9/12/05; 05:48:32MT - msg#: 135886)#1358929/12/05; 10:25:19

Druid: Belgian, this is the same Steve Forbes that used to pound the table hard about a "Gold" standard and doing away with the IRS, a Flat Tax etc...., and now, he's a changed man. Is he going to be a new Oracle in helping manage down the price of oil so that the masses will be in awe of his ability to raise his hands and make it so?

Will the oil barons cooperate much like the gold barons and?

I third the motion to have Miner's recent post archived to our great Hall.

DruidDruid (9/12/05; 10:25:19MT - msg#: 135892)#1358939/12/05; 10:28:36

Druid: should read; Will the oil barons cooperate much like the gold barons?
GeneDollar#1358949/12/05; 11:54:31

Why is the dollar soaring today?
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Consolidate the seasonal fruit of your labor into enduring value#1358959/12/05; 12:03:42

Swiss gold francs

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

USAGOLD-Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

Druid(No Subject)#1358969/12/05; 12:24:46

Druid: Dollar up, oil down, gold up. The game is changing.
TownCrierprice charts#1358979/12/05; 12:30:01

Today gold is flexing its muscles in euro, reaching up to new highs (and attracting attention of the continental investors). Meanwhile, in the 1-year dollar chart shows gold to look decisively positive, too.

Would you like to have meaningful savings? Consolidate your promissory papers -- choose gold.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today for price quotes and diversification guidance. 1-800-869-5115


TownCrierFully agree on Miner's commentary#1358989/12/05; 12:49:49

Now the million dollar question is how/where to best preserve it. I could make it a fully-fledged stand-alone page hyperlinked as a companion piece to my original debunking of the "Conundrum" page, or I could directly incorporate it in full into the EPILOGUE of that same page, or I could give it the ever-handy and reliable 'Golden Chalkboard' treatment.

Any preference, gentlemen?


968BBQ#1358999/12/05; 12:54:48

Hello Townie,

Did you have a great BBQ yesterday ?

Druid@TC#1359009/12/05; 13:01:30

Druid: TC, forgive me for not knowing but if your commentary is archived at the chalkboard, then link Miner's commentary with it so it will have an appropriate context. You might also might want to archive it as a part of Miner's own individual work. Just some thoughts.
TownCrierFederal Reserve continues to buy Treasuries outright#1359019/12/05; 13:09:42

Following this morning's massage of the fed funds market with a $4.75 billion injection of cash at sub-FOMC rates (below the 3.5% target) through overnight repos in open market operations, more significantly the Fed once again (third time in four sessions) acquired Treasury coupons through outright purchases for the Fed's own account.

This time the Fed injected $1.1 billion dollars of 'permanent' cash reserves into the banking system in its open maket bid to absorb Treasuries, targeting those coupons maturing in the near-term, from November 2007 through October 2008.

As the Fed actively monetizes our Treasury's debt securities, you should consider actively consolidating your paper into tangible gold to limit your exposure to potential currency depreciation within our inflatable money supply.


TownCrier968, I surely did! Bratwursts on Saturday and steaks on Sunday#1359029/12/05; 13:48:46

I also had a chance to (finally) read the McCauley piece. In doing so I was struck as though hearing a distant echo of early thoughts shared (some privately, some publicly) something like five years ago among Ari, FOA, myself and the Forum on the international use and employment of eurodollars ("offshore" dollars). For all our efforts to characterize papergold as a hollow item of wealth, the eurodollars offer even less to stand on, as if that's possible.

To put the simplest possible bottomline on it, the fact that the central banks have orchestrated to make this airiest of reserve structures work for as long as they have should be more than enough proof that they also possess the means to provide in its stead at the appropriate time a solid foundation of gold along with guidance to the markets on acceptible mechanisms for benchmark pricing of the strategic, tangible asset.

More on that, and MTM thoughts to come, as promised to you...


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1359039/12/05; 14:12:32">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Monday Market Excerpts

September 12 (from Reuters) -- Gold came within dollars of its highest price in 17 years in Europe on Monday as political factors boosted the yen and knocked the euro, pushing investors into the safe haven asset.

Bullion rose to its highest so far this year at $451.50 an ounce in Asia overnight, before settling back as its ardour cooled slightly, amid some profit-taking.

"You got a ratcheting up in the market rather than a one-way trip (up)," said Bernard Hunter, director of precious metals marketing at ScotiaMocatta in Toronto. "I had sort of expected a more serious attempt on ($450) from New York," he said, adding, "It's provided some pretty strong resistance."

An election victory by Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi pushed up the yen against the dollar and boosted the interest of Japanese investors in dollar-priced bullion, dealers said.

Euro-denominated gold hit its firmest in three weeks as the European currency softened on growing uncertainty over an upcoming vote in Germany.

Dealers said the metal was gaining strength and was likely to climb past the December 2004 peak of $456.75. Anything above that would take gold to its highest since June 1988.

COMEX December gold contracts settled at $453.70, up 70 cents.

Dealers also reported buying from jewelers in Asia despite high prices, suggesting that some consumers had given up hope that gold would fall back to July levels around $420.

A recent industry-sponsored report showed robust physical demand, especially from Asian jewellery manufacturers, in the first half of 2005.

---(see url for access to full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)---

TownCrierFed's Fisher says no rush to judge Katrina impact#1359049/12/05; 15:49:10

WASHINGTON, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Hurricane Katrina will not do lasting harm to U.S. growth and the impact on monetary policy is unclear, a top Fed policymaker said on Monday, in remarks that reinforce expectations for a rate hike next week.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher made plain that while he had an open mind, he was not worried that Katrina would send the U.S. economy into a tailspin.

...Fisher is a voting member of the central bank's policy setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, which holds its next meeting on Sept. 20.

"Among the American economy's strength are its size, diversity, interconnections and resiliency. I fully expect the economy to rebound from this disaster," he said.

He also said government spending to offset the financial hardship of the hurricane must be monitored by the central bank, which should not get sucked into paying for this through cheaper money.

"With the nation's already large fiscal deficits, I personally believe that it would be ill-advised for the Fed to monetize any fiscal profligacy," he said.

U.S. President George W. Bush has already authorized $62 billion in storm aid and the final government bill is liable to swell above $100 billion.

^----(from url)---^

We've already seen recent signs of moderate monetization. (see earlier post, plus two last week.) Will there be more Treasury purchases by the Fed to follow?


TownCrierVulnerability#1359059/12/05; 16:03:07

HEADLINE: Widespread power outage hits Los Angeles

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - A widespread power outage hit Los Angeles on Monday, knocking out electricity to thousands of customers, snarling traffic and stranding high-rise office workers in elevators or trains as officials scrambled to determine the cause.

There was no immediate evidence of foul play, but authorities declared a state of emergency shortly after the 12:35 p.m. PDT (3:35 p.m. EDT) blackout, which struck a wide swath of the city in seemingly random patches.

"The city is on a tactical alert and obviously traffic is going to be impacted," said Los Angeles Police spokesman Kevin Maiberger as lines of cars jammed the city's freeways.

Maiberger described a tactical alert as "what happens when the city goes into a state of emergency. Police officers will only be responding to calls where there is a threat to life."

...The power failure jangled nerves in Los Angeles one day after a suspected Al Qaeda associate made threats against America's second-largest city in a videotape aired as the U.S. marked the fourth anniversary of the September 11 attacks.

Television stations showed confusion at major traffic intersections as motorists tried to navigate through stoplights that were out. Freeway traffic was jammed as stoplight outages caused backups onto exit ramps.

In the financial district of Los Angeles, office workers huddled in groups, many stranded outside their buildings as the outage struck during lunch, stalling elevators in high-rise office towers.

^---(from url)---^

There's something to be said for knowing where the stairs are and how to use them.

Choose gold -- it's reliable like that.


Sundeck$35 oil?#1359069/12/05; 16:13:45

Belgian, et al.,


There was one rather interesting predictions made last Tuesday by business publisher Steve Forbes. Forbes boldly predicted that we are going to see oil down to $35-$40 in 12 months! It's a huge bubble, he suggested, that will eventually pop. According to him, hedge fund speculators in oil futures are getting very active. Consequently, the higher the price goes, the further it falls! I don't buy this argument and will explain why.


This demand and supply logic is turning ruthless and it poses the greatest perils for the US and world economies. Any disruptions could indeed exacerbate the already edgy no excess capacity situation in market demand and supply, e.g. new damaging hurricanes or other natural disasters; political unrest in certain oil producing countries; slackness in global refining capacity; horrendous acts of terror, etc. These factors could, individually or collectively, cause disruptions in oil supplies and hence havoc on a global scale.


1. Steve Forbes first raised this $35 prediction a few weeks ago at the Forbes CEOs conference in Sydney. It received a bit of publicity, but does not seem to have gained much traction since.

2. Mmmm..."huge bubble" in the price of oil....OR...wind coming out of huge bubble in the "price" of the US dollar?

3. I would certainly be surprised if hedge funds ARE NOT part of the problem (as they appear to be with the dollar), but the underpinning demand/supply issues appear, to me, to be compelling.

4. I suspect that oil has become part of Alan's "conundrum" as well...a dinkie-die headache for an old man...

5. Perhaps Steve Forbes is on a mission of "greater purpose"....or just very short petroleum in the markets???


Belgian@Tapper#1359079/12/05; 16:51:43

At present, the most correct answer is : Who knows !?
There is NO timetable on a process (transition) like this one. One can only guess if the events are to be interpreted as fastening or slowing (or even aborting) the ongoing process.

Hypothetical example : If the Forbes call would materialize (POO > $35) with $/€-POG going up...I would cautiously conclude that the process is speeding up. Oil saying > don't mess with the euro, and if you (temporary) want some cheaper oil...releash the goldprice which is € supportive. Maybe Forbes has translated this agreement to the public ?

The hart of the matter remains the balance between the pressure on the dollar-system and the dept and soundness of the euro-system alternative. This is a (the) process. That's what we are watching.

Simply realize that today's gold is obscenely cheap (historically) and that the timing of the actual revaluation process is impossible. I have a period of +/- 5 years in mind where pushing and pulling will remain on the order of the day. This intuitive period is based on what changes happened during the past 5 years.

Belgian@ Druid#1359089/12/05; 17:09:15

It certainly is no coincidence that Forbes repeats his POO call immediately after Gordon Brown's speech on oil (Manchester-EU reunion).

Wouldn' be surprized seeing oil coming down in exchange for rising POG !? A bit of more freely priced gold in exchange for cheaper oil. This would be a nice sign that complete FREEGOLD = CHEAP OIL . Just as it was during the past 3 decades : Cheap oil in exchange for the possibility to accumulate cheap goldmetal.
But with the goldmetal liquidity getting dryer by the quarter...freegold (free/freeer priced gold) could be a good solution completely in line with the practices of the past 3 decades. Free/freeer goldprice (Dubai call $500) without having started the final complete revaluation might be relatively harmless to the dollar (no graveyard) and supportive for the euro.

Maybe that's what was agreed upon in Manchester ? Let's watch if it materializes ???

Otherwise, Forbes was just putting his weight on the oil futures in support of an attack on the oilprice ?
Too early to come up with projections.

FlaccusOn the JetlinerUSA just before takeoff. . . .#1359099/12/05; 19:11:59

Pilot: OK. Let's run through our checks.

CoPilot: Ready.

Pilot: Primed press.

CoPilot: Check.

Pilot: Lap dog Wall Street analysts.

CoPilot: Check.

Pilot: Hedonics.

CoPilot: Check.

Pilot: Massaged figures.

CoPilot: Check.

Pilot: Dumped markets.

CoPilot: Right where we want them.

Pilot: Trumped up markets.

CoPilot: Just like we like them.

Pilot: OK. We're ready to go.

CoPilot: Let's taxi this puppy into line.

Pilot: Check all the way around, tower. We're ready to dump this one on the public.

CoPilot: We're taxiing to the runway, ready to dump producer prices on the public, tower.

Tower: OK. Let's get it over with, boys.

Pilot: Ready to let it rip, Tower. Have a good one.

PRITCHORe Lower Oil & Higher Gold Price - -#1359109/12/05; 20:04:02

WHY would Oil Producers,especially those from the Gold loving Middle East accept a lower price in exchange for a higher Gold price?

Unless I'm missing something completely (very possible)it just doesn't make any sense. In the PAST we've been told that a LOW oil price was only possible because Gold was supplied/ managed at a LOW price.

Accept for a minute that the oil price currently is NOT HIGH -after all the US $ has lost 35% at least in value over the past 4 yrs --and taking into account inflation oil is really cheaper NOW than in the 80's!

If the Oilprice comes down -they get LESS worthless paper --WHY would they be happy with a Higher POG?
They can buy LESS Gold -doesn't ADD UP for me. Thoughts?

TownCrierPRITCHO, a time to plant and a time to reap#1359119/12/05; 20:39:37

On the whole of your comments, and especially this portion ....."If the Oilprice comes down ---WHY would they be happy with a Higher POG? They can buy LESS Gold -doesn't ADD UP for me.".... it becomes abundantly apparent that you aren't trying to step back to see the bigger picture.

You are evidently too focused on what the terms of the present trade would be in that scenario while neglecting a fuller consideration of what the consequences would be upon all of the gold savings that they have already acquired.

Suggest you bear this in mind and reread Belgian's #07 and #08.

Hope this helps.


mikal@TC, BlackBlade#1359129/12/05; 22:04:50

TC- "Big picture". Yes, in the full context of the phrase, as numerous posters, MK and yourself have used it over the years we have been together. I see at least three meanings of "big picture":
*ongoing future (realistic) market valuation(s) of POG under official auspices as you noted earlier
*buffer for ME nations with dissappearing wells and/or declining oil output until new industry and resultant wealth gradually fills the petroleum void
*implications for individuals, especially investors, internet advocates, 'lurkers', posters past and present(witness the postings from old friends) and those who stand to benefit in kind
BlackBlade - I have been bemused by the way spot crude traded up so steadily in the weeks prior to Katrina. Reaching the fabled $70/barrel at one point intraday I believe. So close to the point at which many felt funds would kick in with massive speculation. Driving oil higher, by some accounts swore it would swell to $100, a price some still find credible.
POO is not going to change the trend or big picture of gold. But it does add daily color and drama to world markets that often overshadow the local and personal impacts which big media conglomerates find less newsworthy.

DruidJapan's Rivalry With China Is Stirring a Crowded Sea#1359139/12/05; 22:09:56


Published: September 11, 2005

TOKYO, Sept. 10 - In a muscular display of its rising military and economic might, China deployed a fleet of five warships on Friday near a gas field in the East China Sea, a potentially resource-rich area that is disputed by China and Japan.

The ships, including a guided-missile destroyer, were spotted by a Japanese military patrol plane near the Chunxiao gas field, according to the Maritime Self-Defense Forces. It is believed to be the first time that Chinese warships have been seen in that area.

Although the fleet's mission was unclear, its timing suggested that it was no coincidence. The warships appeared two days before a general election in Japan, whose results could greatly influence relations between Asia's two great powers, and weeks before China is scheduled to start producing gas in the area, against strong Japanese protests.

In Japan, where the 12-day election campaign was exclusively focused on domestic issues and on what the media described as Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's theatrical politics, the warships were a sudden reminder of its most pressing outside challenge: China.

Until Mr. Koizumi diverted voters' attention from Japan's rapidly deteriorating relationship with China, the focus for several months had been trained on the increasing diplomatic, military and economic rivalry with China - much of it taking place in the waters between the countries, filled with potentially explosive issues like oil and gas and Taiwan.

Both Japan and China are determined to wield a strong hand in the oil-rich seas and strategic shipping lanes that lie between them.

"It is like the 1930's again, when the central Pacific became a vital concern to both the United States and Japan, whose navy was expanding," said Adm. Lang Ning-li, who until his recent retirement was Taiwan's director of naval intelligence. "That means there could be conflict between China and Japan, which both see these seas as vital, and can't share this space."

Security experts from China, Japan, Taiwan and the United States say all the elements are in place for a showdown over Taiwan between Beijing and Tokyo. No one is predicting war, but Taiwan poses a permanent and unpredictable potential crisis. Washington has a close alliance with Japan, security commitments with Taiwan and a complex relationship with China that mixes rivalry with extensive economic ties.

For America, whose support of either Japan or China has historically tipped the balance in the region, the implications are enormous. The recent comments by a Chinese general that his country would use nuclear weapons against the United States if the American military intervened in a conflict over Taiwan were a sharp reminder that Taiwan's fate remains one of the region's biggest flash points. Many analysts argue that such confrontation, verbal or otherwise, could lead to a regional arms race culminating in a nuclear Japan.

Japan imports all of its oil, and because much of it passes through the seas surrounding Taiwan, feels its survival is dependent on keeping those seas stable. Chinese control of Taiwan could hurt Japan's access to oil, Japan fears. And the United States, which has pledged to defend Taiwan if it is attacked by China, would like to count on Japan's help. During the cold war, Japan conducted joint operations with the United States to keep Soviet submarines out of the Sea of Japan. The submarines are now Chinese, but the policy toward them is pure containment.

"You can come out as much as you want, unless you do something wrong," said Adm. Koichi Furusho, who served as chief of staff of Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force until January.

This cold-war view of China emerged recently in Japan, but Japan's embrace of it is one of the reasons behind the worsening relations between the countries."

Druid: It seems that relations are getting much more tense around the globe. Given all the help that we've (USA) received from the Japanese finance and banking officials concerning matters of currency intervention and Treasury securities acquisitions, it sure would be nice if we could get them to gear up their war machine and help us out over in that neck of the woods.

Notice the little comment concerning Europe and their small involvement.

DruidForest Service Proposal Would Speed Up Grasslands Oil Drilling#1359149/12/05; 22:24:27

"September 12, 2005 — By Dale Wetzel, Associated Press
BISMARCK, N.D. — The U.S. Forest Service will propose regulations to shorten the environmental reviews of small oil-drilling projects in national grasslands, an Agriculture Department official said Friday.

The proposal would affect grasslands covering about 4 million acres in a dozen states in the Great Plains and West.

Oil exploration is off limits in some areas of the national grasslands, but where drilling is allowed, a required environmental assessment takes a minimum of six months. North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven complained some of the reviews were taking three times that long, delaying projects that could help the economy.

Mark Rey, a USDA undersecretary, outlined a proposal Friday to allow some small projects to undergo two-month reviews instead.

The projects eligible for the shorter reviews could not include more than three miles of pipeline or more than four drilling rigs, he said.

An advocate for the environment was wary of the proposed rules.

"I want to see the specifics, but this at first blush looks like another attempt to accelerate oil and gas development in the Badlands without taking the necessary steps to protect the environment," said Wayde Schafer, a Sierra Club conservation organizer.

Hoeven argued that the process could be streamlined without harming the environment.

"This has been a big thing for industry, and it comes at the right time," the governor said. "It comes at a time where we recognize we need to increase domestic (oil) supply."

Besides North Dakota, states with national grasslands are California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas and Wyoming.

The proposed regulations are to be published in the Federal Register in a few weeks. That will mark the beginning of a 60-day period during which the Forest Service will take comments on the proposed rules.

Source: Associated Press"

Druid: Wow, and we've only hit $3+ for a gallon of gas.

GoldiloxFisher statement#1359159/12/05; 22:41:54


"He also said government spending to offset the financial hardship of the hurricane must be monitored by the central bank, which should not get sucked into paying for this through cheaper money."


Now there's an Orwellism. The CB "paying for" recovery with "free money!"

As Mogambo would say, "HAHAHAHA!

Chris PowellRichard Russell belatedly begins to have a clue#1359169/13/05; 00:02:48

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PRITCHO@ C. Powell RE Richard Russell Remarks - - #1359179/13/05; 01:02:08

Your comments on Richard Russell are patently untrue.You say that "Todays Commentry" gets close to Russell acknowledging manipulation of the gold market.This typifies the shallow research that goes into too many remarks from yourself & Murphy the mouth.

I have been subscribing to RR for nearly 2 years now & I can testify that he regularily & unambiguously points the finger at manipulation of both the share market & Gold.In fact if you were paying attention I've posted his remarks re manipulation several times in the past.

Unlike yourself & Gata he doesn't seem to need to repeat the same rant every day--thank Christ. He makes very sarcastic comments several times a week about what's going on in the markets-- sometimes very tongue in cheek which I guess you lot aren't used to.

This is a guy with over 5o yrs experience in the market, who supports & advises his readers to purchase Gold --and you bag him for no good reason. What an - - - -.

PRITCHOA Quick Look Back Through Richards Archives - - -#1359189/13/05; 03:06:26

I just went for a random look through a few of "Richard Remarks" at his web site - -He has one for each market day & often a bonus one on the W/End. This was purely a hit & run exercise & I haven't got the time or inclination to spend any more time.

There are plent of characters in the Investment world who do need a serve - -RR is not one of them.Read the remarks below & tell me if RR should have bagged like he was in CP latest diatribe.

March 21, 2005
Commercials have to make money too. They're playing the precious metals like a piano. We poor devils just sit and wait. But if gold takes off on the upside, at what point do you sell it? Sell it for what -- paper? No, you never sell it, you give it to your kids or your spouse or your grandkids or even your secret lover.

April 6, 2005
Investing or let's call it "surviving" is extremely difficult in today's "bubble world." Why? Because almost everything is overvalued -- and very little is undervalued. As a matter of fact, the only undervalued item that comes to my mind is -- gold. In a world characterized by a blizzard of fiat paper, gold today is dirt cheap.
Has gold, or is gold, being manipulated? I don't know, but if it is being manipulated then it is cheaper than ever. It's cheaper and a great bargain because ultimately gold will full express itself, and when it does we'll see panic conditions in the precious metal area.

April 29, 2005
However, HUI has broken down, which is discouraging. But there's no use fighting reality. The market is saying that investors want the safety of the product rather than the leverage (both ways) of the gold stocks. After considering the whole situation carefully, here's my thinking. If you have the stomach for it, stay with your gold shares. And certainly stay with you gold metal commitments. If you're worried, cut back on any rally in the gold shares (which are now heavily oversold). However, I still believe that before the gold bull market is over, you'll see both gold and the gold shares "blow their tops."

May 27, 2005
Gold -- Gold shares often lead the metal at important turns. The daily chart below is a ratio of HUI to gold. As you can see, gold has been stronger than gold shares ever since last March, and thus the ratio has held below the blue trendline. But the ratio hit a low a few weeks ago, and this week the ratio broke out above the declining trendline. This should be a good omen for the whole universe of gold -- the metal and the stocks.

June 16th 2005
So far, the movement of these two markets have been slow, at times often imperceptible. Remember, it's in the interest of the Fed and the government that neither the bull market in gold nor the bear market in stocks appear obvious to the public. Therefore, the Fed and the government will do everything they can to hide these two opposing primary trends.
Our job is different. Our job is to "follow the money."

June 20, 2005
Gold, the metal, holding unchanged with the dollar strong today. Remember, the Commercials are boosting their shorts. As I said, gold is finally starting to act like the fourth major currency. Of course, there's only one eternal, intrinsic money -- it's gold.

*** What W%$#@ S would give a serve to a Gold friend like this?

PRITCHORE GOLD The Clincher - - - Eat Humble Pie !#1359199/13/05; 03:17:27

Had an Idea & put the word "manipulation" into the search engine on the Richard Russell site- -here's the first result I've looked at. Note the date:

October 31, 2003

In the face of the deficit evil, natural forces are coming to the fore. The natural force in the face of this blizzard of paper money and deficit is the gradual rise of true money, gold. Here's a chart showing the multi-year, gigantic accumulation pattern in the gold shares. Let's call this a gigantic "head-and-shoulders" bottom.

Note that XAU has just "peeked out" above the resistance in the 80 to 90 area. Today XAU is trading at above 98. I don't know how high XAU is ultimately fated to go. I don't know how long it will take before the formation ultimately expresses itself. Suffice it to say that the massive accumulation pattern is in.

Against the expression of the above formation will be all the manipulation, the propaganda, the lies, the naked power of the central banks and the various governments who want to remain in power at any cost. But the power of the truth is stronger than all the governments and all the central banks taken together. And the truth is that gold is true wealth, while fiat money is a lie, it's immoral, and it cannot and will not survive.

I really am embarrassed to talk so much about gold. For years, decades, I've talked about the stock market and the bond market. But my main intention is to do what ever I believe I should do to help my subscribers. And at this time, it's my firm belief that the best I can do for you, my subscribers, is to get your thinking and your action in harmony with the prevailing great primary trend of the market. And the great primary bull trend at this point is the primary bull trend in gold.

Doesn't get much clearer than that Chris! I think an appology to RR would be the least you could do.

BelgianKatrina impact :#1359209/13/05; 03:21:09

Without doubt, CBs and oil are watching how the multiple costs of Katrina are going to be managed.

More precisely, how much $-monetary expansion will be produced. The cost of this catastrophy on US territory "might" have serious (disturbing) consequences : A higher oil/gas price for a longer time than anticipated ? Rumors go that US taxes on energy will be raised as to keep the prices (of the refined) at the Katrina levels, even after the flows have been restored ?
There might be an effect on $-IRs (up) ? M3 might rise faster/higher than originally anticipated ?

Those who are watching these consequences and the management of it, have reasons to worry : Price inflations and dollar devaluation (stagfla)!

That's why so much attention is produced on the "recovery" aspects of Katrina rather than on the "crisis" aspects of it. This is significant to the extend that a catastrophy of this scale (affecting directly only 1% of US population) could cause serious disturbing consequences shaking up the global economy (cfr. miner49er's exposé).

My intuition tells me that oil + Trichet might come to the FED's help with aligned measures as to not aggravate the Katrina aftermaths. > IRs - exchange rates - POO (and destillates) !?
Joint efforts to "stabilize" ?

Bear in mind that Katrina certainly is increasing the US-$'s deficits ! And that the planet living under the $-IMS regime has to face, once again, the rising deficits that are supposed to back the $-reserve system.
But what's another $200/300 Billion added to the already gigantic debt/deficit stash ? It only starts to matter very seriously if it would cause price-inflation...higher/faster price-inflation trend leaving the US borders ($-infla export).

No wonder Forbes call for a $35 POO must be trumpeted. Is everybody listening and acting "adequately" upon it ? For the time being, I have my doubts. And you, fellow forumers ?

SundeckRussian bank reserves#1359219/13/05; 04:39:00


Alexei Ulyukayev told a forum on the economic development of Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States: "We are happy with the euro/dollar ratio in the gold and currency reserves." He added that the share of the dollar in the gold and currency reserves was 60%, the euro 33%, and pound sterling 7%.

Sundeck: Huh??? Doesn't appear to leave much room for gold amongst the "gold and currency reserves"??? Perhaps what is meant is the share of the dollar in the "currencies part" of the gold and currency reserves...


Cavan ManChris Powell#1359229/13/05; 05:40:21

Hey Chris....Richard Russell is one of the good guys--like Embry only coming at the subject from a different angle. All this carping back and forth about freegold and GATA and...different pews but same Church. Kind of reminds me of the problems Christian have with one another. Keep the faith brother.
KnallgoldSundeck#1359239/13/05; 06:03:15

What he didn't say is that he is also happy with the Gold ratio.You can never have enough of it...
BelgianCHEAPLY PRICED GOLD#1359249/13/05; 06:35:00

It seems to become "bon ton" these days to say (trumpet) that gold is priced cheaply. Mogambo discovered IMF gold (3,210 tonnes) and its SDR's and might one day learn the existance of a CB called ECB (12,000 tonnes-ESCBs) and its MTM concept.
The Aden sisters smell that there is some kind of an "anomaly" building in their 35 yrs goldcharts. The goldprice is at its (ATL) lowest versus copper.

The dollar-system wants us all to believe that all these commodity price-rises are the voracious consuming Asians...and that this will cool down, when Pax Amerikana will "recover".
But I thought that market(price)imbalances were easely re-balanced in a "market-economy" where a rising demand sooner or later encounters a rising offer. Is this already happening ? I don't think so. What's going on ?

Gordon Brown is going to present a 5 year plan for more oil transparency. Am very curious to hear it.
Is the planet going to ask the oil-owners to restore the oil offer/demand balance for the same "dollar" and associated treatment !?
Cheap/cheaper oil to revitalize the globe's economy...encourage more oil consumption...for much less (declining dollar + lower $-price) than before ? Is the transparency a matter of what the "real" reserves are ...over or under-estimated ?

In the mean time all those that still have goldmetal-RESERVE in their vaults must remain dwarfed purchasing power wise. Are the oil-owners expected to further support (strengthen) the $-reserve ...IN EXCHANGE FOR WHAT !?
What is Forbes trading for cheaper oilprices through renewed investment in exploration and development ? More of the same $-debtbergs ? Or,...more cheap goldmetal to be delivered from which vaults ?

Euroland's EMU might soon want to come up with a very visible (high profile) achievement as to consolidate (restore) EU's credibility towards its citizens !? Evidencing that EMU really exists and WHY it exists. Read, EU/EMU delivering ! The price of oil (through new oilpricing) might be the apropiate choice : Cheap oil for Euroland in exchange for defreezing the obscene low goldprice ? Of course it would be nice to see the whole globe profit from a reasonably priced oil/gas as to revitalize all economies. But do "all" economies desperately need the same reasonably priced oil/gas ? Some do need it more than others : West versus East !

The same difference goes for cheaply priced gold and its $-pricing regime. Who needs ...who benefits from...a cheap goldprice, possible under the present $-regime ?

This brings "dollar-euro-gold-oil" together under the common denominator of "RESERVES" ! And the existance-credibility-soundness-solvability of reserves are a basic "fundamental" for any economic/monetary/financial system. At present everything is increasingly based on "debt" and the gigantic efforts to keep the ever rising debt, credible. (cfr. Katrina adding more ballast to the already high uncredibility of the compounding debt)
That's why the freezer must work overtime to ice the goldprice.

Very cheap goldmetal exchangeable for a $-unit, which's future is extremely doubtfull, can be called obscenely cheap gold. The oil-wealth-reserve owners do think exactly the same. The more that it becomes cleare by the day that a new arms race is in the make (Asia) for future war for oil/gas-control-flows. This emphasizes the basic wealth importance of the finite energy resources...RESERVES.
All this can impossibly remain on the cheap for much longer !!! Once a global fight about these cheap reserves is raging...those REAL reserves -OIL/GAS/GOLD- will never remain cheap. Global price inflation to hyper status is already an inevitability regardless of any possible defla theory. We are gradually working our way through this process towards a climax.

Are you going to wait for having your share of wealth reserve until that climax is there ?

Chris PowellRussell archive only proves the point#1359259/13/05; 06:40:51

Pritcho, your quoting from the Russell archive only confirms my point. Here you quote from his letter of April 6: "Has gold, or is gold, being manipulated? I don't know, but if it is being manipulated then it is cheaper than ever."

That is, seven years after Greenspan ANNOUNCED to Congress that gold was being manipulated, and Russell, the great gold advocate, still doesn't know ... and still makes no effort to find out.

Sorry, guys, but when it comes to addressing the manipulation of the gold market, Russell has been like most supposed market analysts: no help at all.

Cavan ManHey Chris....#1359269/13/05; 08:04:59

The man has spent his entire life as a market technician--a chartist. He's done one thing--brilliantly IMHO. He doesn't focus on ANY noise. He reads the charts. I have great admiration for you and GATA--tremendous. Lighten up and smell the roses. Tomorrow may not come.
PRITCHO@ C. Powell RE Richard Russell Remarks - - #1359279/13/05; 08:15:05

You must be joking - -you have zero credibilty left and yet you still argue that black is white. Richard Russell is different. He's not dogmatic about Manipulation and unlike you & Murphy he' doesn't seem to see the need to repeat himself mindlessly. You're being cowardly in not admitting you've been caught telling porkies about one of the best GOLD advocates on the planet.

Here's one last quote from Richard to PROVE he's been talking about manipulation more than likely way before you lot. He also has heaps more credibility for my money.There's plenty more --I've only looked at 3 out of scores of hits.

Oct 9 2003 ---

Today had to be one of the strangest days for gold that I've seen in quite a while. The gold stocks gave ground very grudgingly, despite the 6.20 drop in Dec. gold. Which makes me think that the price of gold is being manipulated, and the gold stocks just don't believe the lower gold price.

Of course you can also say that it's easy to manipulate gold, the metal, but how do you manipulate dozens of gold shares? Hanky-panky going on in gold, but in the end gold and gold shares will do what they are supposed to do. Which is what? Answer -- go up, because it's a gold bull market, and it's fated to last a long time -- perhaps many years. But yes, today was a doozy, a very strange day for gold and gold shares.

mikal@Pritcho#1359289/13/05; 08:44:50

Re: "Unlike yourself & Gata he doesn't seem to need to repeat the same rant every day--thank Christ. He makes very sarcastic comments several times a week about what's going on in the markets-- sometimes very tongue in cheek which I guess you lot aren't used to."
You're making a baseless attack and with unjustified venom.
Stick to the issue without attacking character and flouting our rules of courtesy.

Re: "This is a guy with over 5o yrs experience in the market, who supports & advises his readers to purchase Gold --and you bag him for no good reason. What an - - - -."
Chris and Bill have done much more, and for longer, for investors in real assets.
At the same time, you assume that Chris has no right to render a small criticism of Russell- a talented and highly regarded man quite capable of defending himself and whose record alone serves as sufficient counterpoint to Chris's or anyone's opinion. No need to overeact or get sanctimonious. The television does a good enough job of dividing people.

Chris PowellSorry, Pritcho....#1359299/13/05; 08:52:53

... But your new quotation from Russell is just more ambivalence. Russell can't quite bring himself to believe it or say it: The gold price is set by the central banks and is completely a function of how much gold they are willing to sell or lease at any particular time. And Russell can't be bothered to look into the data on gold; all he does is wring his hands.

Cavan Man, my remarks about Russell acknowledged and credited his longtime advocacy of gold. But that advocacy goes only so far, just as the advocacy of gold on this forum and other forums goes only so far.

Russell constantly remarks that gold is "the only real money" and that fiat is destined for destruction. But fiat is still with us and gold is still pretty well locked down. People are often ignorant but they're not always stupid; when they read merely ideological gold advocacy like Russell's, they consider gold's advocates to be cranks blinded by ideology.

What Russell and many other gold advocates seem to fail to recognize is that the gold price suppression scheme, the manipulation of the gold market by the central banks, using the bullion banks as cover, is the PROOF of the claim that gold is the superior money, if not quite the only money. For only if gold was so powerful, such a potentially competitive currency, would the central banks be so engaged in controlling its price EVERY DAY.

Like Dennis Gartman, Russell is slowly, slowly coming around, giving hints here and there even as he remains firmly ambivalent -- and more slowly than everyone else probably because he is reluctant to accept that his beloved technical analysis is nonsense where markets are manipulated by the government.

Russell does the gold cause no good when he acts like just another ideological crank. We've got plenty of those already. Gold's case is made not by ideology but by FACT and ACTION -- by how the central banks try to control it. Forget your ideology. When THAT case is made, the world won't be able to get enough gold no matter how much the central banks throw at it.

mikalGold hits floor?#1359309/13/05; 08:58:43

This chart shows Au trespassing for a short time
just at the fence of $450, peering twice and retreating
about five paces where it has been taking a stand.
After a while, this routine begins to attract notice, among other things. Hmmm, similar to the way bonds have been in a tight range lately.
Oh and look at that. Our greenback buck too. What? Stocks as well? Do wonders ever cease?

968Consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem as at 9 September 2005#1359319/13/05; 09:05:54

No decrease in goldreserves this week, again !
Knallgold968#1359329/13/05; 09:14:36

...building confidence in the reliability of the WAG.
CoBra(too)There is no Intervention! #1359339/13/05; 09:52:59

... And equally free are all markets financial, resource and anything striving in this almost perfect capitalistic system of ours - or is it cabalistic ...

Here's a question on a trading account with the deepest pockets ever experienced - acc.# "990N". If anybody can answer it sufficiently - I won't ever doubt the paradigm of free markets!

... and what's needed to keep up the pretense of normality was thankfully and brilliantly described in "Miner 49's - Double Edged Sword" until, well until even that will meet the fate of ending on the trash heap of history.

It is a fools game to try to manage markets, as globalization will prove as well; There's a limit to growth as the Club of Rome has postulated in the late 1970's and we didn't take heed.

Now growth by all means is a necessity for survival; For our currency, economy and lastly for our liberty! Growth, at this stage seems to become a function of availability of ever scarcer resources.

The sustainability of a world populated by ever more, eager to become middle class citizens is finally becoming recognized; Resources of our globe are visibly diminishing, is it water, cheap energy, grains, metals ... and even clean air - this world, the only one we know, won't be able to accomodate today's population for ever; Nor any accelerated population growth rates from here on!

Id est, without Manna from heaven.

I, therefor find the food fight on this forum, which I love almost as dearly as my own homestead, a bit off topic. There are more sincere topics out there than "free gold" and our monetary system (scheme, would be the correct translation, which we have to tackle right now - Though, I know we won't.

See you all - in the new stone age of barter? - Or are you willing to share and rebuild small communities of "common" utility? ...

Anyway - Here's a daily reckoning reader's take:

Who Controls Account 990N?

A Reader Writes...

"...My firm and I have contacted the Merc on three different occasions with video proof that I recorded of my trading. It shows blatantly this guy crossing his orders thousands of times a day. The first person we talked to in compliance admitted that he saw something there when they reviewed the video of the trades I taped of him. He was mysteriously fired the next day..."


Only have a minute, but will write more later but...The entire S&P price action in the Futures is being controlled by one counter party. All the guys strongly hate them: their CME clearing number is 990N and they clear through Gelber trading.

That one account is solely responsible for the current level of the S&P.

They are the ones that are throwing the S&P up overnight.

Then they are the ones that are sitting on the bid all day long, supporting the market action. The S&P pits have been decimated, absolutely ruined.

There is no volatility, so all the traders have left.

Now the hot pit is the Eurodollar pit. Go figure, that used to be like watching paint dry.

All the traders I have talked to view the market as being rigged.

They keep waiting for the price action to break loose, but it never does.

They are stunned by the lack of volatility. And furious. Time after time after time 990 just sits there on the bid. Don't they ever go away. They just absorb the entire market and then push the price wherever they want it to go. "Gee, I wonder who that counter party is." They are all terrified of shorting, because every time they do, they get drilled. I thought it was just my systems that weren't working that well, but they are far more dispirited than I.

Intervention at its finest, your tax dollars at work, providing the ultimate tax to us all.

We have watched 2000 contract market orders on the Bid at key down levels of - 50 and - 100 on those rare days when 990N decides the program trading will revert to a well-defined pattern of "allowable" retracements. The Mini's are being rigged in order to provide "support" for swollen price levels. They have to be for now, as without the daily rigging, "Price" would revert to its inherent "Value", a disturbing proposition to those benefiting from the financial economy's adolescent denials.

Counterparties provide an important function in any exchange, liquidity. Given the incessant "intervention" by 990N, there is very little liquidity beneath these markets to provide real support.

I am actually writing you to alert you to this complete market manipulation and to see if you had any pull to get the word out to different traders and the media. I am one of the biggest S&P traders in the world as far as volume per day in that I average over 40,000 round turns per day on the screen in the e-mini. I tell you this because that is how I know one house is completely manipulating the market everyday because of all the trades I do with this guy. I know it sounds hard to believe that one person can control a world market but trust me: this is occurring. He works for the firm Gelber, which is house 990.

This is the basic premise for his game. He waits until the market is relatively slow, around 9:30 to 10:00 everyday, usually when the "paper trade" starts to subside then he begins a theme, mostly always long and he begins to buy. He is always looking for confirmation of his theme with what other people are doing.

When the market stops trading in his direction he then drops in a offer of 300 to 700 which he sees if anyone is interested in buying it. If there is no interest he then buys the order from himself, with the order actually trading. He does this enough times until he attracts other buyers which then hits price points and the market runs violently in his direction.

I am sure I do not have to tell you that this is completely illegal to do. He started doing this with 300 lots back in November, now he has made so much money doing it that he is up to 2000 lots. He is completely in control of the market (illegally) the majority of the time.

My firm and I have contacted the Merc on three different occasions with video proof that I recorded of my trading. It shows blatantly this guy crossing his orders thousands of times a day. The first person we talked to in compliance admitted that he saw something there when they reviewed the video of the trades I taped of him. He was mysteriously fired the next day.

We then came up with more examples for them to review and in the beginning claimed he wasn't doing it. We called them a third time, this time talking to the head of compliance and he finally admitted that they had the guy under investigation because they saw something, but in the meantime he is still allowed to trade and make millions until their "investigation" is concluded.

They obviously love the volume the guy is putting up and how it makes the emini S&P look from a standpoint of a liquid market. But if the public had knowledge of what this guy was doing I don't think they would be too impressed with the liquidity.

There is obviously some kind of cover-up. Do any of the pit traders you know have knowledge this is happening? And do you have any advice on how I can anonymously get the word out with what this guy is doing? I know you are not a true tick by tick "scalper," but this is getting to the point where it is starting to effect everyone in the marketplace.

Please let me know what you think.

This correspondence was recently received from a reader of the Daily Reckoning.

Caradocintervention versus transparency#13593409/13/05; 10:34:24

At a fairly lofty intellectual level, some of us are complaining about intervention and others are attempting to prove it to those who can't see the elephant in their dining room. At an even loftier level, still others are longing for a more transparent mechanism for pricing gold in terms of dollars or even pricing everything -- currencies included -- in terms of gold.

Meanwhile -- with gold having performed strongly yesterday despite strength in the greenback and with the greenie doing nothing in particular this morning -- the Comex clowns dress up in their scariest outfits and jump out to yell "boo!" in time to influence paper gold and the stock market. Gold down almost a full percentage point: "Be afraid. Be very afraid."

Sorry, but what could be more "transparent"?


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Especially for those who are taking their first step...#13593509/13/05; 10:51:02">gold ownership starter kit
TownCrierGoldman Sachs raises gold forecast after Katrina#13593609/13/05; 12:10:41

NEW YORK, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs has raised its fair value estimate for gold over the next 12 months due to updated forecasts for currencies and U.S. interest rates in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

In its Weekly Commodities Highlights report issued on Tuesday, the broker lifted its price target on the benchmark precious metal to $463 per ounce from its current fair value estimate of $434 after it revised downward its near-term view on the dollar.

...With Katrina fanning concerns over growth, Goldman Sachs also predicted a pause in the Fed's rate tightening cycle at the Sept. 20 FOMC meeting, although the Fed Funds rate was still expected to rise to 5.0 percent by mid-2006.

It said it saw the dollar falling to $1.25 against the euro over the next three months, versus its prior forecast of $1.15.

^----(from url)----^

Goldman's original forecasts were too low. We'll probably see subsequently that their revisions are too low, too.


mikalLiquid to solid#13593709/13/05; 12:30:23

Saudi Arabia Swaps Oil For Gold - Australasia Investment Review - 09/13/05
mikalSeptember 15 : Meeting of Banks on Derivatives#13593809/13/05; 12:38:03

Fed Calls in Banks on Derivatives Paperwork Backlog - Bloomberg - September 13, 2005
BelgianInterest Rates#13593909/13/05; 13:21:49

This very low IR environment is a deadlock : In a debt driven - debt based, economy...any rise in IRs is disproportionately causing general price inflation. Worse : This debt driven/based economy is already stagflating >>> Stagnant growth with selective (not general) asset-price-inflation (stocks-bonds-housing-energy).

And it is precisely in this deadlocking environment that one finds obscenely low priced gold !

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#13594009/13/05; 13:25:08">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Tuesday Market Excerpts

September 13 (from Reuters) -- Gold futures in New York closed lower on Tuesday, pressured by broker selling and speculative long liquidation, as the dollar continued to provide direction to the market, dealers said.

After the release of economic data that supported the U.S. currency, COMEX December gold contracts went down $3.70 to end at $450.

The pullback came a day after gold touched a nine-month high at $455.80 on speculative buying.

James Quinn, AG Edwards & Sons commodity commentator, said that selling by floor brokers and funds heated up in the morning, dragging prices below Monday's session low at $451.20 and triggering pre-placed stop-loss orders. "It's all off the data this morning," Quinn said.

The dollar firmed Tuesday as ... the U.S. trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in July to $57.9 billion, from an upwardly revised $59.5 billion in June.

In gold, some players had seen risk of a sell-off by commodity funds whose huge long stance meant there was less buying power available to prop up prices. But overall, gold was expected to continue to track the euro's performance against the dollar.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)----

BelgianThe Goldmarket :#1359419/13/05; 14:32:45

Is there some little rain coming into the dry goldmarket ? Yes there is, because the goldprice remains relatively strong/stronger :

As the public can see how the LBMA goldcontract volumes have evolved...that same public cannot see what happens with the ECB/BIS goldcontracts.
The ESCBs' WAG gold-commiments come together in the ECB/BIS goldcontainer and it is the ECB/BIS that control the valves as to "deliver" physical into the goldcontracts, that are a priori dollar supportive (dollarlife extending).
I have the impression that some physical is delivered into these contracts and that Dubai knows this also. Remember that Saudi Arabia is in BIS and will certainly have a "special" (golden) account overthere in Basel.

During the 1990-present period, the ECB/BIS goldcontainer + valves has been architected to gain control over the goldpricing by attracting the dollar-supportive goldcontract roll-over circus. No physical delivery into the contracts means pressure on POG resulting in a multiplication of the contracts. At present, more goldmetal is delivered and the contract volume declines.

If the above correspondsplus/minus with reality, we can easely conclude that the ECB/BIS has succeeded in getting control over the goldpricing and also has the control over an eventual gold default.
Worth thinking about it, now that petro-paper goes physical and out of papergold (Dubai Exchange)!

The HoopleTC, the GS comedy routine#1359429/13/05; 15:12:51

Goldman finally gets around to updating its woeful gold forecast from $434 and it only sees a $15 upside from here for a whole year? They're killing me. They've missed every forecast since 2000 and yet somehow still see no upside. There again it's hard to forecast a drastically higher POG when your boys are in the Comex pit hollering "10,000 offer at $447 all comers". $463 is probably where they HOPE the supression will hold. Goldman's analysts should be on Comedy Central instead of CNBC.
mikalRoach shares sentiments?#1359439/13/05; 15:57:50

Last Hurrah For Bonds - Stephen Roach - 09/12/05
Excerpt: "I am increasingly a limp-wristed bond bull. Since I threw in the towel on my long-standing bearishness on bonds at the end of May, yields on 10-year US Treasuries have fluctuated in a 3.88% to 4.42% range -- lower than most were looking for but falling short of the 3.5% target I had thought was achievable over the next year (see Rethinking Bonds, May 31, 2005). While I still think there is a trade or two that could push long rates lower over the next few months, I must confess that my newfound bullish conviction is starting to waver. The bond market's bearish stars are now coming back into increasingly worrisome alignment."
Mid-March the Iranian oil bourse is slated to come on line. Will the bond market begin pricing this in at year's end?
Deficit and dollar pressures could act in synergy with the Dubai exchange and smaller exchanges worldwide, taking their cue from Iran for example?
Does Roach share his bond bearish sentiment in common with the Morgan Stanley brain trust?

melda laureHoople CNBC#1359449/13/05; 16:42:11

Clueless Ninnyhammer Bubblehead Central. CNBC
MKSome random thoughts on incredible times. . . .#1359459/13/05; 17:14:46

One year ago gold was trading in the $405 range. This week it touched $450 -- that is better than a 10% gain over the past 12 months. Not bad. Over the same period, the S&P has also gained roughly 10%. Wall Street is doing hand stands over that and talking about a bull market, while all we can do on the gold side of the fence is complain over nearly the exact same gain.

As for someone or some group managing the gold price, all I can really say is "So what else is new." That's like saying the dollar is a managed market. So what? That doesn't mean that the managers are omnipotent. It doesn't mean they can't or won't fail. They've failed before. They've failed in managing the dollar and they've failed in managing gold. In the past they've failed big time amidst widespread cries that the system was headed for an apocalyptic end. They don't wan't that to happen again, so they're trying to time the releases of the pent-up pressures in a way only a few notice hoping its not going to get out of control. Looking at the oil price, a case can be made that its already gotten out of control only no one's gotten on the evening news and announced as much to a dazed public.

What we have going on here is something I pointed out all the way back in January. G-7 is attempting to keep gold within a band and they've been trying to keep it within that band since about 2000 -- a band that allows anappreciation of between 15% and 20% per calendar year. I can't point to an agreement specifying this policy, nor can I prove that this explanation is the right explanation. But we can all see the footprints in the sand. My guess is that the band still has between 10% to 15% appreciation for gold in it for the rest of the year. That could still mean reaching the $525 target which I gave a 75% probability of occuring in my January forecast.

Now, let's dig into the economic effects of Katrina for a moment. Yesterday the Financial Times pulled the alarm bell with a story about the mounting insurance losses in New Orleans. Most houses were not covered by flood insurance. Those that were, they report, were covered only to a max of $250,000.

This raises some thorny problems for the federal government. A massive number of mortgage defaults and personal bankruptcies looms that could threaten the banking and mortgage industries -- and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac. Some say that the hedge funds are in the mortgage reinsurance business up to their eyeballs. The bailout required to resurrect New Orleans from the Katrina onslaught with respect to the infrastructure, rebuilding et al is one thing. The bailout required to keep the mass defaults and bankruptcies from rupturing the financial system are still another. I would not be surprised to see the total figure -- infrastructure, public welfare and financial bailouts (for starters) -- head towards the $100 billion level before all is said and done. With public pressure on the politicians in the red zone, you can bet the money's going to flow.

At the moment, the national debt is just $50 billion shy of $8 trillion. This means that we are likely to see over $600 billion added to the national debt in fiscal 2005 (September 30). Put Katrina into those numbers and you could see borrowing and monetization like we haven't seen in many years.

This is going to come out in the inflation rate and increases like what we saw today may be viewed 12 months down the road as the good ole days. No matter how skillfully the government gimmicks the figures, the people aren't going to be fooled. They will not fail to notice that the cost of living is going through the roof.

Meanwhile, underlying all this is the conundrum and the Fed's seeming loss of the ability to control interest rates.

More later . . . .

GoldiloxCNBC#1359469/13/05; 17:30:26

@ melda laure, the Hoople,

I prefer "Clueless NeoCon Bullmarket Canaries", but the essence remains the same.

GoldiloxDamage Control#1359479/13/05; 17:40:40

@ MK, et al,

"This raises some thorny problems for the federal government. A massive number of mortgage defaults and personal bankruptcies looms that could threaten the banking and mortgage industries -- and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac. Some say that the hedge funds are in the mortgage reinsurance business up to their eyeballs. The bailout required to resurrect New Orleans from the Katrina onslaught with respect to the infrastructure, rebuilding et al is one thing. The bailout required to keep the mass defaults and bankruptcies from rupturing the financial system are still another."

With the costs mounting rapidly, I suspect this is one they will try to keep as quiet as they possibly can. It's a hard political sell to bail out banks and hedge funds when the home owners are living in FEMA "camps".

Not quite the same emotive value as "Sorry about your 401K nest egg, but we need to shore up the system".

melda laureOnly the disconnect is incredible.#1359489/13/05; 18:00:41

Incredible? That the "magic checkbook" is the reincarnation of the One Ring is hardly to be doubted now- Total Economic Intervention. Some of the futures traders have come to the realization that Sauron runs the casino, management will not stop the cheating: Cheating IS THE policy. The printing press will not be cornered, neither in dollars nor in SP mini's, nor IR swaps, nor in any other phantasm of modern finance. As well to fire imaginary missiles at imaginary fortresses. Incredible yes. Incredible too, the worldwide connivance to hold back the tide- for the present.

And the birthday present WILL come.

Most people probably assume that the U.S. stock market is free of government interference. It is acknowledged that the bond and currency markets are influenced by policy makers, but equities are considered different territory altogether. Current mythology holds that share prices rise and fall on the basis of market forces alone. Such sentiments appear to be seriously mistaken. A thorough examination of published information strongly suggests that since the October 1987 crash, the U.S. government has periodically intervened to prevent another destabilizing stock market fall. And as official rhetoric continues to toe the free market line, manipulation has become increasingly apparent."

MKGoldilox#1359499/13/05; 19:24:33

"I suspect this is one they will try to keep as quiet as they possibly can. It's a hard political sell to bail out banks and hedge funds when the home owners are living in FEMA "camps"."

Astute observation, Goldilox. A close confidant said the same thing to me when I advanced the problems contained in my previous post. "The public's not ready for it. No politician will touch it. " he said. The fact that we are talking about unmentionables does not mitigate the reality. In this country, the government does not want to admit inflation, does that make inflation less invasive on the pocketbook? Someone, somewhere is going to have to address these problems because they are real and they aren't going to disappear with a wave of a political magic wand.

It's not a choice of one over the other, it's more how are we going to address both?

PRITCHOAfter A Good Nights Sleep - -- My Final Comments re RR#1359509/13/05; 19:45:07

@CP -OK OK -It's your job to police the comments of every Gold advocate to make sure they're ranting at the correct noise level. Perhaps you should write a diatrade aimed at our host? His comments shurely don't line up with what GATA & yourself expect of him? - From post 135945

"As for someone or some group managing the gold price, all I can really say is "So what else is new." That's like saying the dollar is a managed market. So what? That doesn't mean that the managers are omnipotent. It doesn't mean they can't or won't fail. They've failed before. They've failed in managing the dollar and they've failed in managing gold."

Enough said CP except "get a grip"
@mikal Re your comments to me (135928)

"You're making a baseless attack and with unjustified venom. Stick to the issue without attacking character and flouting our rules of courtesy."
Thats exactly how I saw CP's attack on RR. Baseless, unjustified & venonous.Factually wrong (as I proved) with no courtesy & only thinly veiled acknowledgement for RR's deservedly high reputation. I also saw & read the same style of sarcism etc used against Belgian the other day. Are you one eyed? As for flouting rules of courtesy - I thought I was being straight and the rules are something I am very aware of. However I did think that the rules were under someone elses jurisdiction-- or have you been promoted?

"Chris and Bill have done much more, and for longer, for investors in real assets." --Ha Ha --Russell has always promoted Gold & he's been around 10X longer than the newbys

"At the same time, you assume that Chris has no right to render a small criticism of Russell" -- IF it had of been small I would not have replied period

"No need to overeact or get sanctimonious"
Ditto to above --You're the one to call the kettle black?

To all --I have nothing furter to say on this matter. The above comments are only in reply. Thanks.

The HoopleMK, Goldilox, #1359519/13/05; 20:10:28

The Katrina disaster could once and for all spell out whether Fannie is in any way a GSE or as our Treasury Secretary clearly warned no such thing. If Fannie ultimately holds mortgage paper for uninsured/underinsured hurricane victims they may be sitting on their own toxic gumbo. And with God knows what is going on currently in their delayed re-statement of earnings (derivatives going south?) they may be forced to deal with public unpleasantries no matter how uncomfortable it will be. Maybe this too is a Greenspan agenda item on Thursday? Many funds foreign and domestic hold Fannie in their portfolio. I imagine they are watching closely at its stock price ebbing now to $47. Keeeping it as quiet as possible may be difficult if not impossible.
mikalRe: Pritcho#1359529/13/05; 20:50:56

I do not recommend his posts any longer.
mikalGold article from the FT media family steps over the line?#1359539/13/05; 21:07:48

Pump panic, gold glee |
Time to Roll Out the Safe Havens? - Buttonwood - September 13, 2005
Thanks Chris Powell for bringing this out tonight. Very interesting. I'll leave it to the nightshift to digest this goodie. Goodnight all.

MKPritcho#1359549/13/05; 21:11:17

I did not mean for my post to be a criticism of GATA and Chris Powell. I have great respect for both Chris and Bill Murphy. Few can claim to have done more to raise public awareness of the forces affecting the gold market than they.

My point goes beyond any discussion of the merits of GATA. (By the way my admiration for Richard Russell goes back many years -- back to the beginnings of my career when only a handful extoled the virtues of gold ownership. He has always been a top notch analyst and market commentator. I wish I could write as well; communicate as directly. He has always advocated gold ownership -- at least as long as I can remember.) I am simply stating that because someone is attempting to control the gold price does not mean that they are going to be successful. I am confident Richard Russell would say much the same thing. It is one thing to believe that a conspiracy exists. It is quite another to believe that the conspiracy is above the laws of nature and the markets -- that it somehow transcends the scope and lessons of history.

The point I am trying to make has to do with the nature of markets. It has little to do with GATA and its mission.

mikalRe: FT article "steps over the line?"#1359559/13/05; 21:18:09

"Steps over the line" is what I may have done today in being harsh with Pritcho who is one of the forums best assets.

But what also caught my attention in a very cursory glance at Buttonwood below was the very last line where he says he expects gold to "soar" when Sir Greenspan departs, thus my question: "Is this stepping over the line?" (or Is this going to get the author or editor reprimanded or fired?).

Chris PowellThe manipulators will fail, and we work to hasten the day#1359569/13/05; 21:51:02

MK's point is the crucial one: While the gold price, like currency exchange rates, is manipulated, "that doesn't mean that the managers are omnipotent." Yes, they have failed before and they will fail again. If they were omnipotent, there would be no point in opposing them.

But their manipulations are more successful the more surreptitious they are; to succeed they require the pretense of a free market and no criticism. Expose them and they will fail sooner, so we work to hasten the day.

Many people who have reason to know better could do something to hasten the day too -- starting with the World Gold Council and including, among others, newsletter writers like Richard Russell.

Here's a prediction: In a few weeks or a few months Russell indeed WILL be more explicit about manipulation of the gold market, if only because it will have gotten even more obvious by then, and, like all of us in one way or another, he will wish that he had sought and gained knowledge sooner.

otish mountainCobra(too): Limit to Growth#1359579/13/05; 22:12:11

A Taboo subject.
Sustainability is not an option with this POLITICAL market economy and nor are the true values of the earth's remaining resources reflected within these markets.

The flaw is the system that will only continue to function with growth. Where as the only growth in the future is in the money supply and the costs of things basic to our existence.

Hear you loud and clear.

GoldendomeTwo airlines expected to file bankruptcy Wed. or Thurs.#1359589/13/05; 22:29:23

Snippet from the article:

Two of the nation's largest airlines edged closer to bankruptcy on Tuesday as Northwest Airlines Corp. said it had decided not to make $42 million in required debt payments in recent days and Delta shares slumped further below $1 ahead of a long-expected petition for court protection.
Northwest's board was scheduled to meet Wednesday to decide on a Chapter 11 filing, said Will Holman, a spokesman for the Air Line Pilots Association union, which has a member on the board.

On Monday, an industry consultant told The Associated Press that Delta Air Lines Inc., the nation's third-largest airline, planned a bankruptcy filing late Wednesday.


G-dome-- It has to be extremely disappointing for investors in these two once proud airlines, now that a gallon of aviation fuel is worth more than two or three times the share price of the respective stock.

GoldiloxForum assets#1359599/14/05; 00:01:12

I heartily concur that all the protagonists in the last few days, posters and quoted sources, are great assets to our journey on "the trail".

Russell, Sinclair, Shultz, Murphy, Puplava, Morgan, and so so many others . . .

We truly walk among giants!

Truman(powell message 135956) what's good for the goose#1359609/14/05; 00:14:00

right back at you...

here's a prediction: in a few months gata and chris powell indeed WILL be more clued in about the central banks' designs to unfetter the gold market, if not because they've become less arrogantly thick-skulled but only because the positive designs will have gotten more obvious by then, and like all of us in one way or Another, the gata gang will wish that they had sought and gained an understanding sooner.

Belgian@ Chris Powell#1359619/14/05; 01:06:42

All fraud should be exposed to the general public ! I will always agree 100% with all who are doing something to make it happen. But...

I still don't see how the exposure of fraudulent goldprice management to an as broad public as possible, is going to "change" anything...THAT ALREADY IS IN PROGRESS !

The general public : What are they doing (their reaction)when hearing (understanding-?) the frauds ? Have you seen happening something, anything ?
Do you really think that a WGC will do something about the system of which they are an integral part ?
Are we (the public) going to storm the LBMA or BIS/ECB buildings ? Are we going to dump all our dollar-credits and rush into goldmetal ?

Who exactly are you seeing getting embarresed with the exposure of the frauds ? And if you should have noticed some embarresment...have you seen any change in attitude in the management of the goldprice...dollar...interest rates...or any other policy ?

GATA expert, Mike Bolser left this forum when the infamous Euro CB goldsales were debated.
The general public was informed about those sales by the CBs themselves. The public's reaction (protest) was zero.
Now that the fraudulent character of these gold events is being exposed, that same public remains as infantile as ever. No protest, no action.

Why aren't we, gold advocates, concentrating on what must have really happened with this gold maneuvers and attrackt the public's attention with a different approach ?
Explain what might be the purpose of the gold action (fraudulent or not) !

But then, the matters of the dollar, dollar reserve system, $-IMS, euro, POO have to come up...and here seems to exist a lot of restrain. How does one tell a global public that the fraudulent goldprice management is related with the "reserve-status" of the globe's $-numeraire for trade settlement and savings !? And...that the equivalent of 10 to 15,000 tonnes of CB goldreserves has been brought under the ECB/BIS umbrella in the form of contracts (commitments)...with the final purpose of establishing freegold...if and when the dollar loses its famous reserve status.

Is this too far fetched...too complicated...out of the question...other ?

Why associate goldprice optimism with every catastrophy imagineable...EXCEPT the dollar's loss of reserve status ?

A (fraudulent)(managed) dollar that is holded as a reserve all over the planet.

These 10-15,000 tonnes of CB gold MUST have landed somewhere under some particular form...for a MAJOR purpose !
I'm absolutely convinced that the general public would be MUCH more interested about THIS aspect of the gold/dollar fraud !

The realization that the price of physical gold, EXPRESSED IN A FAILING DOLLAR CURRENCY LOSING ITS RESERVE STATUS (FUNCTION) exactly the reason for the fraud and at the same time the reason why the change of goldregime is on the road. Here, the general public is offered a probable perspective on which it can reflect and eventually act appropiately by considering taking up goldmetal in private possession. Not running away from gold because of the exposere of the fraudulent management of the goldprice.

All the contracts (commitments) of these thousands of CB gold are waiting for "settlement" ...when the ECB's MTM concept will manifest its full weight !

The CB gold is "HIDING" in the BIS ...waiting anticipation of the collapse of the $-reserve-system !!!

Against this background, the exposure of the gold (dollar) fraud gets another perspective.

BelgianTrichet speaks for EU Parliament#1359629/14/05; 02:21:00

Once again it is clear that the FED and ECB have a different approach towards economy/financials and monetary affairs.
Simplified : The dollar has no problem with inflation (inflare) and puts "growth" above everything. Consequently taking inflation for growth and growth not for inflation.
This principle is permanently eroding the dollar's reserve status.

Good TA/TI news from Chris Locke : €-POG projected at 420 €.
(ECB/BIS gold valves !?)

CaradocGood words from Belgian#1359639/14/05; 04:15:18

One paragraph from Belgian's post below deserves special emphasis:
"The realization that the price of physical gold, EXPRESSED IN A FAILING DOLLAR CURRENCY LOSING ITS RESERVE STATUS (FUNCTION) exactly the reason for the fraud and at the same time the reason why the change of goldregime is on the road. Here, the general public is offered a probable perspective on which it can reflect and eventually act appropiately by considering taking up goldmetal in private possession. Not running away from gold because of the exposere of the fraudulent management of the goldprice."

There's wisdom here and -- if you read between the lines -- a productive course of action. True, exposing fraud is always appropriate, but if all John Q. Public learns is that the gold market is rigged, he shys away from it. Result: less demand and even lower prices than if typical investors kept 2 to 5% of their assets in gold. Instead, let John Q learn that the gold market is (present tense) being skewed downward to bargain prices so that somebody benefits by taking ownership of 10 to 15 tons of gleaming metal. Then show John Q a chart indicating that the skew downward shows signs of failing. Could be that even John Q and his brother-in-law Joe Sixpack will figure that they should at buy some ounces for themselves before the holders of tons of the stuff decide to quit averaging up at $350, $400, $450 and demand that gold be recognized as real wealth.

This course of action would be worth paying for a few full page ads. Even better, it could be pitched as a story that some publications would run without payment.

A big "thank you" to Belgian!


CaradocSend in the clowns?#1359649/14/05; 04:32:28

Okay, it's almost 3:30 Pacific 6:30 Eastern. Despite yesterday's drop (slightly over 1% at its worst), gold is back up to over $448, a smidge higher than it was yesterday. And the dollar is down by more than twice the amount it was up yesterday at this hour. So, one might expect that, in a fair world, we would see gold up over the next four or five hours by twice the amount it dropped yesterday. Instead, the Comex Clowns are probably putting on their boogeyman masks and preparing to jump out just before the stock market opens and yell "boo!"

An orchestrated buying opportunity, my friends.

Thank you, Comex.


BelgianThe POO - POG in euro or dollar + The €-$ exchange rate#1359659/14/05; 06:10:43

1/ When the euro exchange rate versus the dollar rises AND the goldprice in euro rises at the same time...we have a goldprice that supports the euro (MTM).

2/ When the euro exchange rate versus the dollar AND the oilprice in dollar rises at the same time...we have an oilprice that supports the euro .

Is this a sign that the dollar's reserve status is on its way out ?

SundeckGold in the public perception...and the missing gold bars.#1359669/14/05; 06:11:29

Belgian, Caradoc et al.,

It is true that the general public's day-to-day perception of gold may be quite different in modern times than it was, say, 100 years ago. Then, gold may have been still in circulation, the great gold rushes (Bendigo and Ballarat etc) were still an issue of topical conversation amongst people who had themselves participated, or whose parents and relatives had been personally involved. And major gold rushes were still occurring (eg. Papua and New Guinea). Gold underpinned the financial system and even the average Joe knew it was of fundamental importance; even if not one person in ten thousand actually understood the mechanics involved.

Nowadays, gold still sits in the psyche of nearly everyone, not as a day-to-day monetary phenomenon, but as the lingering scent of wealth, prestige, beauty and certainty. The term "gold" lingers persistently in the language in these contexts. But its direct association with money - that thing that people deal with on a daily basis probably more frequently than anything else (except maybe air for breathing) - is no longer least in the dollar-centric world (USA, Australia, UK). And of the one person in ten thousand who, today, understands the mechanics of money and finance, very few amongst them have any inkling of the hidden role of gold or its latent power. Thus, igniting the desire to hold gold amongst the general public may not be as easy as it once was.

Just as an aside: I wonder what the difference is, if any, in general public perception of "gold and money" in the USA (where treasury gold is hidden away at $42 an ounce) compared with Europe where gold is somewhat more conspicuous as a marked-to-market reserve asset?? Taken further, I wonder again how "gold and money" is viewed in say China, in Turkey or in India as opposed to the USA, UK and Australia??

As another aside, I suspect that gold in the USA, UK and Australia, these days, is viewed somewhat similarly in the context of jewellery. But there still may be latent awareness of gold's monetary/wealth importance...seen in sayings like: "Sitting on a gold mine." or "I wouldn't do it for all the gold in Fort Knox!". There is little doubt in my mind that, even though the public perception of gold as an everyday means of monetary transaction is absent, there may well be widespread outrage if, for example, it was disclosed that Fort Knox actually contained no gold at all! Or the somewhat less-tangible notion took hold that the treasury of one or other country has nothing but paper receipts in place of its once bulging vaults, and the counterparties have defaulted!

And then there is the contrast between the Bank of China overtly encouraging the Chinese citizens to hold gold as an asset class and the silence of the monetary authorities in the USA, UK and Australia with regard to the subject of accumulating gold. It seems the latter prefer to wring their hands when shares or housing reach bubble dimensions, rather than taking the simple step of suggesting that gold may offer a viable alternative in wealth preservation, thereby taking some of the heat out of, say, housing. The public in these countries appear to be held captive to the institutionalised financial sharks who would rather have the public "invest" in one or other funky financial product(gold funds, etc) from which the pushers can get their cuts several times over, rather than promote the simple concept of "wealth in a brick" which, by comparison, provides the pushers with relatively little in the way of commissions and premiums and other kick-backs.

Well, the funky products appear to have been fornicating in the back rooms, because now they are everywhere and no-one is too sure just where the parentage lies nor which ones are prodigal and which ones are trustworthy and true...and the Daddy of them all is probably none other than the US dollar! No wonder he is a bit weak in the knees of late...

Oh well...enough rambling around on this one...



Belgian@ Sundeck#1359679/14/05; 06:50:34

Yes indeed, for some generals on the global monetary front, it was (is) VERY convenient to have gold maneuvered into the marginal role of " SYMBOL " ! Repeat, " -some- " generals working for the Western AA faction.

Rest assured that for an absolute majority on this planet...GOLD has never degraded to a "symbol" (symbolic function). In Dubai (and many other of such places) gold is NOT traded as a symbol to represent whatever. Gold is Wealth overthere. Not symbolic wealth...real wealth !

When a brand new CB, the ECB, keeps goldreserves in its system...AND CHANGES THE VALUATION CONCEPT OF THESE can hardly conclude that the ECB wishes to hold some gold as a (monetary) symbol. When Alan says : CBs stand ready...Is this a public statement that emphasizes the wealth and reserve importance of UST-gold ? No, it is the public marginalization, reconfirmed, of the symbolic function that the dollar wants gold to be associated with.

Question : Where do you buy your bullion in Australia ?

Sundeck@Belgian Bullion in Australia?#1359689/14/05; 07:12:10

There are dealers in all the major cities catering for small to medium demand...

For larger holdings, I suspect the best known "house" is probably the Perth Mint where you can maintain precious metals accounts of one kind or another...


BoilermakerExposure of Fraud#1359699/14/05; 07:34:39

I must take strong issue with Belgian's
"I still don't see how the exposure of fraudulent goldprice management to an as broad public as possible, is going to "change" anything...THAT ALREADY IS IN PROGRESS !"

It seems to me that much of the difference in gold outlook by Belgian vs. Chris Powell involves what I see as an "orchestrated systemic" view by Belgian and an "individual rights" view from CP. I lean strongly towards the need for honesty and equality of information available to all individuals as being the highest responsibility for government with respect to monetary and other matters at least here in the US. Wheather or not this information goes unheeded or is acted upon is up to the individual. Like a category 5 hurricane 48 hours from my doorstep, I want to know about it.

I recall that in 2000 GATA made a heroic effort to implore the then new President, GWB, and his administration to investigate, cease and desist the gold manipulation lest he become the inevitable victim of its predictable failure. Perhaps this was naive but the past five years would have been far different had GWB heeded this advice. I'd wager that the Iraq invasion would not have happened and the US would now be emerging from the economic stresses of dealing promptly with its financial imbalances.

History would have been different had GATA been heeded in 2000. A cathartic recession in 2000 will now be manifested as a full fledged depression in 2006. The solution will most likely be more governmental intervention and less personal freedom and responsibility.

For want of a nail, the shoe was lost,
For want of the shoe, the horse was lost,
For want of the horse, the rider was lost,
For want of the rider, the battle was lost,
For want of the battle, the kingdom was lost,
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail!

Chris PowellFor Truman and Belgian#1359709/14/05; 07:36:07

Yes, Truman, I hope to understand more in the future than I do now, which is why I included "all of us" in my post here last night. I also hope newsletter writers like Richard Russell, who are in a far better position than most of us to inform people, ACT on their growing understanding. Russell seems to be mentioning gold market manipulation more these days and we may hope that he looks into it more.

Belgian, I have suggested that when financial industry people understand the game being played in the gold and currency market they will increase their gold purchases and overwhelm the central banks. That is how, I think and hope, exposure of the gold price suppression scheme can make a difference, can hasten the day of gold's liberation. If we can change the allocation of the public's investment funds a little, we can change the gold situation a lot.

canamamiSaudi Arabia Swaps Oil for Gold #1359719/14/05; 08:12:04

I don't know if anyone posted this here yet. It would be of interest to the oldtimers.
BelgianWhat I don't understand...#1359729/14/05; 08:47:01

Forbes (high profile person) making a call for $35 POO whilst the $-POO (crude) today shoots up with a Fibonacci 1,61%. When Jalal Talibani (President of Irak) gets hero status and friend of America the day before yet another 150 people are murdered in Bagdad. Knowing that Irak is the place with the second biggest oil reserves.
I don't get this !?

GoldiloxPublic Exposure of Financial Corruption#1359739/14/05; 08:53:15

Interesting interchange between posters on the merits of "public exposure" of gold market manipulation and outright fraud. From a perception like that of GATA, most of us hope that more exposure MIGHT at least temper the level of fraud.

From a perspective closer to Belgian's, one would ask "How much exposure does it take to awaken outrage"?

Manipulation of connected events by the media tends to define public perception of malfeasance. Politicization of the events is used to either vilify or justify in creating the "accepted" view.

When British colonists rebelled from the Crown, they were "fighting for freedom". When the Native Americans fought those same colonists to retain their traditional lands they were "barbaric enemies of freedom".

When squatters sat on Mt Vernon lands, they were chased away as "enemies of the free landholders". When the same squatters invaded Native American lands (purchased from the French?), they were "glorious agents of manifest destiny."

When inflation is controlled in a way that the banks maintain a "controlled syphon" on the economy, it is "good inflation". When the banks suffer indigestion from their own glutony, the economy suffers, it is "bad inflation". Just as GM is now 10% manufacturer and 90% financier, defined "growth" now depends 10% on real enonomy and 90% on financial wizardry! As GM goes, so goes the country. . .

No one revolted when Roosevelt confiscated their gold, and no one really cared when Nixon shut the gold window to all but the banksters themselves. Both of those events were spun to point where most "believed" they were for the common good. When asked about "manipulated markets" - gold or otherwise, John Q. Beerbelly responds (if he more than grunts) that groups like the "ESF" exist to STABILIZE markets, just as the spinsters have told them. "Now change the channel to ESPN, please."

When Greenspan told the public to make better use of ARMs even when rates were at 40 year lows, they ran out and doubled their rate of higher risk indebtedness.

Do the math! No public awareness CAN NEVER happen while the press and spinmeisters support the manipulators. GATA might blow some money on advertising, but until it wins the "hearts and minds" of the press, it's completely overshoot.

Belgian@ CP#1359749/14/05; 08:55:51

It are exactly those people of the financial industry who are the main colluders !!!
Look at the gold-ETFs !!!

@Sundeck : Perth mint : A gold-certificate is NOT goldmetal in possession !!!

GoldiloxDouble negative#1359759/14/05; 08:56:05



GalearisFlash on silver#1359769/14/05; 09:06:34

Having just returned from the Canadian outback (bush)I have been catching up with the news. I also don't know if this is old news and is of interest but here goes:

So far in September, 5458 silver contracts have been stopped.
That's 27.5 Moz of silver stopped on CRIMEX, about 25% of their total stockpile. (And a LOT bigger percentage of their registered stockpile.)

Yesterday, for example, some 500,000 ounces were stopped.


Best regards,


GoldiloxKatrina Manipulation Spin#1359779/14/05; 09:07:04

CNBC just said a mouthful.

"While consumers may feel the pain in the energy costs, investors see opportunity."

Obvious signs of DISTI manipulation and gouging are spun as "supply and demand".

Even when a few reporters remind the oil magnets that prices shoot up quickly before the flow of higher priced fuel reaches the market and decline much later than the lower prices appear in wholesale markets, they are fed drivel about "market latency" and such BS.

Who can stand against them, anyway?

Unions have been busted. Consumer groups are "leftist liberals". John Q gets hosed at the pump and should darn well like it!

Belgian@Goldilox#1359789/14/05; 09:17:14

Big...BIG... difference between 1933 FDR's confiscation of US'citizens gold and Nixon closing the gold window in 1971 !

How come that after 1971 US'citizens were allowed to hold gold again frozen prices !? Maybe because Euroland started architecting the concept of freegold, right from the moment that its accumulated eurodollars were not redeemable anymore by the stroke of one presidential pen !?
Then allowing Amerkans to possess (price frozen) bullion was a good idea...because the Eurolanders started working on the alternative ...which is well received by other building power blocks !

All this happened without any exposure (very little) and without public outcry or any action ! Nobody stormed Fort Knox and after the gold climax in 1980, many goldmetal owners have been silenced for more than 2 decades and were forced to throw their expensive metal into the ring.

It all happened that way because NOBODY told them ***-EXACTLY-*** what was happening and WHY it was EXACTLY happening !

The same is happening today : All goldphiles that provide the general public with a goldprice projection of $500/$600 are ridiculing the BIG revaluation process that is in progress. This when all those gold agnosts watch how the financial brotherhood organizes the ten-bagger festivals.

GoldiloxSM and oil#1359799/14/05; 09:21:13

While crude and Natgas continue their stubborn priciness, the SM seems to ignore this obvious "tax" on prodcutivity.

Why? Maybe for the same reason GM is 90% financial and 10% manufacturing.

The US economy has been stripped of manufactuing capability anyway. While this may be a "tax" on consumers, it is much less of a concern to an economy of paper traders than the previous US manufacturing economy.

GoldiloxBig Difference#1359809/14/05; 09:37:17

@ Belgian,

Your quote: "All this happened without any exposure (very little) and without public outcry or any action ! Nobody stormed Fort Knox and after the gold climax in 1980, many goldmetal owners have been silenced for more than 2 decades and were forced to throw their expensive metal into the ring."

suggests that although the two Gov't gold events differed greatly in political context, the end result for the public was similar.

Although suppressed gold prices allow the few to accumulate at bargain prices, until the US Government takes an attitude like that of China, the general populace will still find themselves in the position of:

"They got the goldmine. I got the shaft!"

As long as goldphiles are not yet vilified, we see opportunity for individual profit. Vilification or even confiscation, spun as "gold is the currency of terrorists" could be the next planned effort to chase the public from the game!

Pundits who remind us to keep gold quiet and move assets overseas have this concern in mind, but also nurture the environment for vilification of goldphiles.

GoldiloxPump and Dump#1359819/14/05; 10:22:09

CNBC just ran a story on the Chinese internet company BAIDU and the brokerages that took it public. It seems they both have downgraded the stock, with one claiming that valuation is equal to its IPO price of $27. Reaction has been a 25% haircut for specs.

The reporters remarked that no one would have dared to suggest 1999 valuations were inflated during the internet bubble. The pump and dump is getting more and more blatant from this evidence.

Puplava and Morgan regularly remind us that the PM equities are also caught in the same game, as miners scramble for funding to explore and process properties.

In the rock, scissors, paper game of the PM markets, it looks like "rock" is still the safest place to be.

Clink!Rock, paper, scissors#13598209/14/05; 11:17:14

Witty, Sir G, very witty. LOL
GoldiloxOphelia#13598309/14/05; 11:42:27

The Governor of NC has issued evacualtion warnings for the coast and barrier islands as Ophelia stubbornly sits and grows in strength.

If and when the storms starts to move, its direction will bring some bad news for folks in the path.

GoldiloxKatrina's Next Victim Is The U.S. Dollar, Predicts Currency Expert#13598409/14/05; 11:56:08


BALTIMORE, MD- With the Gulf Coast still in shambles after Hurricane Katrina, Congress recently approved over 60 billion dollars on disaster relief – and most expect the funding to go even higher.

Senate finance committee chairman Charles Grassley believes federal spending after Katrina could hit 150 billion and Senator Jeff Sessions thinks it could go upwards of 200 billion.

"The current administration and Congress have scarcely shown themselves to be adept at handling the finances of the country," says Addison Wiggin, bestselling author of The Demise of the Dollar. "Cutting taxes, without cutting spending, has already made the nation's balance sheet a farce."

Now with pressure from all sides for the federal government to help citizens repair their lives in Katrina's wake, spending could blow the 2006 deficit projection sky high - shooting past last year's record of 412 billion.

"Unfortunately, all of this is bad news for the dollar. We're already in uncharted territory. Never before in history has the ‘reserve’ currency of the world been so burdened by debt," continued Wiggin. "And now, the government is being forced by this disaster to spend even more, all the while trying to conduct two wars and deal with runaway entitlement program obligations."

In the wake of Katrina, Washington lawmakers are calling for the Federal Reserve Board to pause hiking the overnight funds rate.

If the Fed gives into the pressure to pause their rate hike when the meet next week, they may signal to the currency markets that they have lost their resolve and trigger another leg down in the dollar's multi-year bear market.


While the less empathetic among us suggest that NO "deserved" it fate for building below the water line, how much more is this true for the financial planners of the Empire?

Just as its always easier to rebuild after a crises with good fundamental personal planning, the analogy is off the scale for the US Dollar.

Cavan ManFare thee well $450#13598509/14/05; 12:02:55

On board since '99...CM
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The CoinGuyCM#1359879/14/05; 13:48:10

It's been a long narrow path fellow traveler.

Best Regards,

The CoinGuy

mikalRe: Rates#1359889/14/05; 14:00:46

U.S. Federal Reserve Set to Raise Rates Again - Andrew Balls - FT - 09/13/05
Analyst at FT expects another rise of quarter pt. But the accompanying policy statement may change they say. Within the rapidly closing window of Fed "flexibility" on rates, such statements carry less weight than ever, though any BS will suffice to placate most traders.

TownCrierArgentina's Central Bank May Increase Gold Holdings#1359899/14/05; 15:32:57

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's central bank may increase its gold reserves as a hedge against inflation and to protect it against financial crises, said Juan Ignacio Basco, the bank's head of market operations.

``We don't rule out increasing our gold holdings in the future, which would depend on the economic environment,'' said Basco, in an interview during a conference in London today. ``Gold is recovering its role as an asset protecting the portfolio against inflation and international financial crises.''

^-----(from url)-----^

The remainder of the article does its level best to cast cold water on this tidbit of gold publicity, but the fact remains, whether some "anti-establishment" people are willing to see it or not, is that there is a growing consortia of gold-friendly (non-Fed) central banks who are responsible for warm deepwater currents that are building into hurricane strength forces to blow gold free from its multi-decade malaise of IMF-style price/value containment.

God speed to you, gentlemen.


SundeckPerth Mint, oil, Iraq etc#1359909/14/05; 15:37:56


Perth Mint

Perhaps I should have said that the Perth Mint offers physical offtake (in pretty much any sizeable quantity) as well as the usual "allocated" and "unallocated" accounts. If you want (trust) them to hold the metal, you pay more for an "allocated" account than an "unallocated" account...and I am sure you know the reason for that...

Forbes, Oil Iraq

In 1971, Nixon closed the gold window. As Aristotle (see Hall of Fame) and others have explained, this was seen for what it was..."as an outright default on payment contracts". Price of oil (in dollars) went up. In 2000, Saddam stopped shopping at the "dollar window" and in 2003, Dubya said EVERYONE must shop at the dollar window. However, it is now becoming clearer than ever that this represents "an outright default on payment contracts". So...price of oil in dollars goes up...and gold is coming alive in Dubai and elsewhere... However, in 1971 there was LOTS of untapped production is a little less than demand and likely to get worse. Hence there is additional, GENUINE upward pressure on price...not just a bunch of sheiks and princes who got in a funk over depreciating dollars. And Iran is talking Euro oil bourse next to shop at the Euro window. Jalal al-Talibani may receive as many (gold?) medals of greatness as his vest can accommodate, but his hands waggle up and down and around on strings just the same, oil demand is growing irrevocably, Forbes is a voice of denial in the wilderness, the dollar is still greatly overvalued and lots of people in positions of power know it. Iraq is a great oil prize, but how much is it worth fighting for? A time may arrive when "victory" in Iraq becomes Pyrrhic...


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Wednesday Market Excerpts

September 14 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold for December delivery climbed to a high of $454.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a level not seen since March 16.

The contract gained $3.70 to close at $453.70 -- matching Monday's ending level.

Prices fell Tuesday but managed to hold at the $450 level, even after the dollar got a lift after a report that the nation's trade deficit narrowed in July.

"We think the ability to hold together is the result of a more diversified bull position in gold and the fact that inflation remains a threat," said Nell Sloane, analyst at, in a daily commentary.

From here, "physical buying will continue to play an important role in the coming weeks as festival buying in India and the Middle East, and pre-Christmas retail purchases in the U.S. and Europe bolster demand, with any dips lower likely to be quickly bought," said James Moore, an analyst at, in a note to clients.

TownCrierGold imports sparkle in India#1359929/14/05; 16:06:44

Himalayan News Service
New Delhi, September 14 -- The lure of gold has made Indian imports rise phenomenally by a huge 61.2 per cent during the first half of 2005, states a new global report.

"The striking feature of the first half of 2005 was the phenomenal rise in both gross and net imports by India..."

"...both coin minting and bar hoarding rose by over 60 per cent," the report stresses.

Explaining one of the reasons for the phenomenal rise in Indian gold consumption, GFMS CEO Paul Walker said, "There is no disputing the fact that the adjustment of price expectations, both amongst the end consumer and through the value chain, has supported higher demand."

^---(from url)----^

TownCrierAsian fund managers turn bearish#1359939/14/05; 16:15:47

(Reuters) Hong Kong -- Fund managers in Asia Pacific excluding Japan have turned negative on the region's economic prospects and have trimmed corporate earnings forecasts for the region as high energy prices eat into profits, a monthly Merrill Lynch survey showed.

The dramatic change in sentiment among investors across the region stems mainly from soaring crude prices that have roiled the economic growth outlook and ravaged asset markets in many of these countries, almost all of which are net oil importers.

"Based on the survey we can see expectations have deteriorated sharply. Fund managers have turned bearish or cautious," said Willie Chan, Asian equity strategist for the US investment bank said.

A growing number of fund managers predicted lower corporate earnings...

While there was little change in the perception about equity valuations in the region, a higher number of fund managers were increasing their cash holdings.

An increasing number of fund managers were switching to defensive sectors...

"It is mainly because there is a sense that the impact of high oil prices will push inflation up, an interest rate move is assumed and which is why defensives are more meaningful," said Chan.

The latest poll showed 81% of the respondents sensed higher inflation compared with 75% in the previous month.

^---(from url)----^

Choose gold as your "defensive sector". Happily, it also has better prospects for real growth than most other alternatives in this period.


NedCavan Man & Coin Guy#1359949/14/05; 16:17:26

In amongst a zillion other things, I hope that when (not if) gold pops, and its looking really good for the next leg up, that our old buddy FARFEL gets to rant and rave about the hedged miners or SOMETHING.

God help us if that doesn't happen !!


NedKatrina....$60 billion? Are they kidding?#1359959/14/05; 16:26:46

160,000 homes rendered completely be leveled. That's 160,000 x $160,000 (am I being conservative?) = $25.6 billion just to cover (1) aspect of this monstrous disaster.

There are another quarter million, half million homes (?) to be repaired. Add the commercial structures and the infrastructure and the emergency relief, someone said a billion-a-day, etc., etc., etc............the list goes on and on and on........another 50 billion and another 100 billion and another 200 billion.

Estimates of $50 billion, 100 billion, 200 billion.....get real's the new number $1 trillion.

Ned@ canamami#1359969/14/05; 16:31:51

Always of interest......

Ask Belgian...."..yellow replaces black..."

That will be the ENDGAME Sir! Thanks for the note.

Ned@ Galearis#1359979/14/05; 16:35:07

Always interested in the silver news.....please keep us posted. Will be a large (retirement)party when Crimex 'breaks'!


TownCrierGold May Gain 7% Before Year-End on Dollar, GFMS Says#1359989/14/05; 16:39:11

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may rise as much as 7 percent before the end of the year as higher oil prices weaken the dollar and boost the metal's appeal as an alternative investment, according to GFMS Ltd., a precious metals research group.

..."The price of oil and Hurricane Katrina could be the tipping point for the U.S. economy," Paul Walker, chief executive of GFMS, said in a telephone interview yesterday. Those two factors will exacerbate the U.S. trade and budget deficits, prompting investors to "move away from the dollar to other assets, such as gold," he said.

..."The size of the deficit is not falling and foreigners' appetite for U.S. paper is surely finite," GFMS said.

Gold may rise to $500 an ounce at the start of next year...

"'s just a matter of seeing when the tipping point in the U.S. economy will come,'' Walker said.

"Competing assets are going to look pretty lackluster, which will benefit commodities such as gold," Philip Klapwijk, the executive chairman of GFMS, said at a presentation in London today.

"Bonds, and especially stocks, are unlikely to do well under the probable scenario of low U.S. and world GDP growth."

The global political climate also "remains supportive," Klapwijk said.

^----(from url)----^

Nice, simple overview of gold positives to see in the media.


CoBra(too)Spot/Spike - restless ...#1360009/14/05; 17:01:49

Spot and Spike creep across the threshold while the Crimex has closed for zzz's.

Let's hope the guys have the kind of nightmares - which have been due to them for years. The most popular misnomer on Wall Street is probably Goldman - a real disgrace to bugs - as the firm should definitely be called something like Cock'Roaches' unite and save the paper for another pauper or is it day?
Hey, who cares now that they have come to grips with the POG
TRADING EVEN ABOVE THEIR FANCY FORECAST FOR YEARS - it'll be relatively easy to predict that these guys are seeing the future in lopsided bell curves!

Don't know if you've read James Turk's latest on the "Barbarous Relic" - it's a classic and easy to find!

Lastly, I personally would like to state that I've met up with Chris P. over the years. A gentleman, very eloquent, vocal and cordial and what's more totally convinced of managed markets ... and so am I!

Where's the beef? - Is it free gold alone? No we're not even close to it. It's the (almost)unbelievable fact that all "financial" markets are managed - go figure!

In reality this fact is just proving to become the ultimate "armageddon" of ou'r societies, stranded in the "endgame" of Carbon Man's last stand - as General Custer at the Li'l Big Horn!

... OK, today there will be an official probe into derivative funds ... what fun(ds) - surely not into 990N or any other Trillion Dollar - no real and visible counterparty (s)comings as JPM, Goldman and co exit always before the crowd... until they get stuck!

Oh, the F word is as mute as the clowns are ellbowing their way out of he door ... to where? Another floor - and let's begin the beguine once more ... A, B and finally C(hris)are only the first 3 in an alphabet of 24 plus.
D - as in depletion will surface before E- as in endgame - before you know!

Good night and trading as long as it's tolerated ... cb2

Ten BearsHenry C K Liu; worth a read.#1360019/14/05; 17:02:08

"The Fed is increasingly reduced by this formula to an irrelevant role of explaining an anarchic economy rather than directing it towards a rational paradigm. It has adopted the role of a cleanup crew of otherwise avoidable financial debris rather than that of a preventive guardian of public financial health"

"Greenspan has justifiably been in near-constant doubt about structural balances in the economy, yet his response to mounting imbalances has invariably been the administration of off-the-shelf monetary laxative, leading to a serious case of lingering monetary diarrhea that manifests itself in runaway asset price inflation mistaken for growth"

"central bankers believe in sound money, but not too sound please, lest the economy should falter. Their mantra is borrowed from the Confessions of St Augustine: God, give me chastity and continence - but not just now."

GoldiloxRetail Sales Miss Mark#1360029/14/05; 17:05:10


Retail sales were reported this morning by the Commerce Department. (See table in PDF format). The consensus was for retail sales to dip -1.3%. Instead the number came in much weaker, with sales dipping -2.1%. Keep in mind this is pre-Katrina, the storm coming in at the very end of the month. The successive monthly numbers could be much weaker.

Notice the automobile category. We had a huge drop of 12%. Analysts were predicting a drop there as reports had circulated suggesting that dealers were having some difficulty moving autos in the month of August. It seems as if most folks ran out in July when the employee discount programs were first offered and snatched up lots of steel with rubber tires attached to them, leaving the industry a bit low on new customers.

If you back those car numbers out, you can see that retail sales increased slightly by 1% but of course that includes the rest of categories - in particular the gasoline station category.

Take a look at that category – a big 4.4% jump from the month of July. Now that's the kind of economic growth activity we really like to see for it reveals that consumers are loosening those purse strings. Please note that this is in jest. That category reveals the additional burden at the pump that folks have to shoulder due to rising fuel prices.

For what it is worth, from my perspective the notion of gasoline sales being part of retail sales is somewhat misleading as to the manner in which this report is typically used by many analysts. Indeed, Reuters carried a story this morning in which the "expert analyst" commented that if one looks at the retail sales, ex-autos, the number was "extraordinarily strong." Quite honestly, I find such a comment stunning.


Dan Norcini suggests that the reatail numbers don't really look too godd, after all.

Clink!Instant obsolescence - a little OT#1360039/14/05; 18:29:01

The mention of the drop in auto sales reminded me of a rather amusing ad I saw recently which, I believe, is probably going to be held up as a poster child in twenty years for the attitude of denial before the oil hit the fan. As the ad says "The Dodge Charger Hybrid - burns gas and rubber !"


Federal_ReservesFunctionally Bankrupt.#1360049/14/05; 18:52:52

Is this the coming common future state of global corporations? Will most be functionally bankrupt in the next 5-10 years operating under bankruptcy rules? First the debt laden airlines, then auto's (GM), large industrials like GE, etc. Is the house of cards finally collapsing?

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:DAL - news) and Northwest Airlines (Nasdaq:NWAC - news), the third- and fourth-largest U.S. air carriers, both declared bankruptcy on Wednesday as the industry's struggle with soaring oil prices and low-cost competition led to one of its darkest days.

With the filings, both made in U.S. bankruptcy court in the Southern District of New York, four of the seven largest airlines in the United States are now operating under Chapter 11 federal bankruptcy protection from their creditors.

SundeckAirlines' future?#1360059/14/05; 19:06:05

Are any airline in the US profitable these days?

I remember reading somewhere that there are few profitable airlines worldwide. QANTAS and Singapore are doing OK, I think. Qantas partly because they had a windfall a few years ago when the other main domestic carrier (Ansett) went belly-up and Qantas inherited most of Ansett's passengers. Qantas has also been astute (lucky?) in correctly hedging fuel prices, but I think that runs out around Dec 05 (??). I wonder how long before ALL airlines start raising prices of necessity, rather than dicking around the edges with fare fuel levies etc?

I also remember reading somewhere that, on average, investors in airlines have made no net gains since airlines originated. Buffett also once reportedly said (jokingly): "Never invest in anything with wheels on it!" OK, he made an exception with Executive Jet, but I think that the rule regarding airlines is probably still valid...

How is United going? (I am using it in November this year and don't want to see it "crash and burn", so to speak.)


MKArgentina thinking gold#1360079/14/05; 19:15:11

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's central bank may increase its gold reserves as a hedge against inflation and to protect it against financial crises, said Juan Ignacio Basco, the bank's head of market operations.

"We don't rule out increasing our gold holdings in the future, which would depend on the economic environment,'' said Basco, in an interview during a conference in London today.

"Gold is recovering its role as an asset protecting the portfolio against inflation and international financial crises.''

MKSorry TC#1360089/14/05; 19:17:00

Didn't know you already posted the Argentina article.

I think this theme will become a chorus in the months and years to come.

SundeckHybrid cars...hybrid personalities#1360099/14/05; 19:43:31


Don't you love it...macho advertising at its best! Retail therapy in a time of denied reality...but then individual and group delusion has always been a prominent feature of human "progress"...for better or for worse.

How much longer can we "Dodge" the real issues, I wonder...

Cheers Sir Clink!


GoldiloxBankruptcy theme#1360109/14/05; 21:22:56


I think you hit the nail on the head! Corporations are emulating government with huge piles of debt and future obligations.

Both will require bailout of some sort to survive.

Interestingly, corps don't need to survive if the principals get out and start new ones, but the ripple effect will severely thrash the little investor!

That's also the reason that "Asset Protection Trusts" are springing up like weeds. They aren't invulnerable, but they add a messy layer of pre-litigation work to the discovery process, during which time the funds can keep moving around to confound the plaintiff's attorneys.

TownCrierTreasury Calls for Large Position Reports#1360119/14/05; 22:16:43


September 14, 2005

The Treasury is calling for Large Position Reports from those entities whose reportable position in the 4-3/8% Treasury Notes of August 2012 equals or exceeds $2 billion as of close of business Monday, September 12, 2005.

Entities with reportable positions in this note equal to or exceeding this $2 billion threshold must report these positions to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Entities with positions in this note below $2 billion are not required to file Large Position Reports.

^-----(from url)----^

Cracks begin to appear more clearly in the system, this being the next faltering step in what was first reported here on this issue August 9th.


SundeckLihir Gold Loan#1360129/14/05; 22:18:59,5744,16606051%255E643,00.html


Lihir took the unusual step of borrowing 480,000 ounces of gold from 12 banks and plans to sell the gold immediately on the spot-market, raising about $US216 million, based on the recent price of about $US449.00 an ounce.

It was the first gold loan in Australia since 1999, said Lihir.


Sundeck: This gold is repayable in ounces between 2007 and 2011...mmmm...I wonder what the price of gold will be then? 15 tonnes of extra gold entering the markets at a critical time ($450 barrier). Coincidence?


TownCrierMore... from Bloomberg as Treasury Sees `Market Dislocation' in 2012 Notes#1360139/14/05; 22:42:45

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury, concerned about a possible ``market dislocation'' in the 4 3/8 percent note due in August 2012, ordered any firm holding more than $2 billion of the security to report their positions.

The Treasury...wants to avoid any disruption that may occur because one investor holds too many notes.

The request was prompted by an increase in the number of firms that borrowed the note and failed to return it, said a Treasury official...

The last time there was concern about a shortage of Treasuries eligible to settle futures contracts was in June...

This is the first time the government asked for ``large position reports,'' said a Treasury official who spoke on the condition of anonymity...

So-called fails occur when a trade doesn't settle on schedule, with one side failing either to receive or deliver...

While there are $19.6 billion of 4 3/8 percent August 2012 notes, traders can use any of 13 Treasuries with about $314 billion outstanding to fulfill the September futures contract.

Futures are agreements to buy or sell securities at a set price and time. Ten-year Treasury note futures expire in March, June, September and December. Expirations traditionally generated little interest because traders usually extended their bets, or rolled the futures, into the next quarter instead of demanding notes to fulfill the contracts.

Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world's largest bond fund, had Treasuries delivered to fulfill its June futures contracts, Bill Gross, the firm's chief investment officer said in an Aug. 10 interview.

``The Treasury is doing the prudent and proper thing with this position call to find out who owns them and who is or is not lending them out in repo,'' said Gerald Lucas, chief Treasury strategist at Banc of America Securities in New York, one of the 22 primary dealers of U.S. government securities that trade with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

``If the Fed can find someone who owns the issue and is not lending it out, perhaps it can entice this owner to lend it out, thereby increasing the deliverable supply. That would definitely help with the delivery process.''

...The Chicago Board of Trade will impose rules in December that limit traders to holding no more than $5 billion of 10-year note futures contracts in the last 10 days of its life.

``This has a chilling effect,'' Bianco's Simons said. ``You may start to lower the utility of the bond futures contract as a trading vehicle,'' because traders may be concerned they may be forced to sell positions in underlying assets if they hold what's deemed to be too much of it.

The spotlight on Treasury note futures is an example of the increasing influence of derivatives, contracts whose values are derived from financial obligations such as stocks or bonds. Treasury futures are exchange-traded derivatives.

Trading in the contracts doubled in the past three years as investors used them instead of the underlying securities to make or reduce bets in the bond market.

^----(from url)---^

This is touches on the discussions we've had in the previous three weeks debunking Greenspan's "conundrum", and the reaction of officials looks theoretically much like shades of Roosevelt's 1933 gold currency confiscation and more recently of the Hunt Brothers' precious metals futures trading fiasco of 1979-80 in which rules were changed on allowable futures positions and liquidations/deliveries.

Such is the eventual dislocation when a tradable financial instrument or device is represented as being convertible into an underlying BORROWABLE item. This is why gold currency (being passed as money) never works for long. Money, technically speaking, cannot have fixed convertibility into anything other than representational currency (fiat paper).

As I said on August 9th, and will say again now: "It is my singular greatest hope for this day that everyone here who reads this article will fully comprehend it, and more importantly, will see the important applicability to the 'liquidity' and pricing dynamics of the gold market."



mikal@Sundeck#1360149/14/05; 22:43:20

Interesting. A large buyer may be in line to receive all those ounces before it reaches the market?
Wherever it goes, it's just a drop in the bucket of
gold supply being consumed IMHO.

TownCrierIn case I was too subtle making my point#1360159/14/05; 23:02:56

The point was that gold should not, must not, be entangled into the monetary realm of broken promises, shattered confidences, defaults and subsequent discounting or erosion of value. Instead, gold must be treated with the full-bodied respect it deserves as tangible property. A consolidation of wealth. Something to be owned in full -- either bought in full or sold in full; but never borrowed, because repayment obligations are never as certain (good) as the original gold.


BelgianArgentina#1360169/14/05; 23:29:24

After their gold (19% of reserves) has been plundered for dollar support, this broken country announces "in London" that it is rebuilding (already 3%) its goldreserves...IN CASE OF AN INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CRISIS !!! Maybe they connect this IF-crisis with mentioning that the goldreserves are also a protection from ($-hyper) inflation.

London seems the right place to mention "financial" crisis.

Unfortunately we don't know how (and who's) the gold landed in Argentina.

When a broken (broke) country consistently goes for CB goldreserves...the must, most probably, know something more about gold's new pricing future. How ironic that Basco is announcing this in a country (UK) that has hidden half its gold in a BIS be percepted as goldsales ! The same country (UK-G.Brown) that wanted to "sell" or "revalue" IMF gold.

Note that selling gold might mean as much as delivering goldmetal into a contract and finalise it with the settlement. And since their are a 100 times more goldcontracts standing out...delivering goldmetal for settlement effects in a rising goldprice. The paper contracts slowly become "physicalized" which is exact the opposite move of "paperizing".

Those Lihir 15 tonnes are most probably for "URGENT" delivery of physical straight to the Middle East (Dubai-land). Since all Aussi gold's destination is the Middle East anyway...there seems to be a matter of urgency (dry goldmetal market)

All these gold-actions are the reverse of what we have been observing during the past decade : The inflation of papergold and the perception of goldsales . This was organized for a purpose. Maybe the papergold-contracts have been sufficiently inflated and now the controled delivery into this contracts, FROM A DRY GOLDMETAL MARKET, can happen in an orderly goldprice-rise way (?). And on top of can happen in a relative strong dollar environment as to "unload" dollar excesses. Note that the interest differential between € and $ remains relatively high without damaging the euro's exchange rate versus the dollar. Which currency finances Dubai land ?

Now gold is very slowly physicalizing the goldpaper ocean... and gold-buying activity (physical uptake) increases steadily in a dry market. Do we need another CB to announce yet another goldsale (hide in BIS) to inflate the papergold ocean ever more ? Or does the ECB/BIS complex has enough gold-contracts running and has the goldmatal market been dried sufficiently ???
A steady rise in goldprice will tell us...

BelgianA reminder#1360179/14/05; 23:46:25

When the Swiss goldsales (one ton a day) were started...there suddenly appeared a strange communiqué that the Swiss goldsales could NOT be forced to pass integral through BIS intermediair !!! Think deep about the significance of that old statement.
The Swiss simply wanted 2 fies with the same gold slap : Some gold contracts in BIS for later euro manna and some gold at the service of their International ($) banking industry (read $-support).

So the only question for today is...Are there "enough" papergold contracts in BIS/ECB ? Enough, to have the €-gold-pricing functioning ?

TownCrierSundeck, your post on Lihir's gold loan folds into this with perfect timing#1360189/14/05; 23:46:35

From the article's opening remarks:

>>>AUSTRALIAN gold miner Lihir Gold has borrowed $US216 million ($280.3 million) in gold to meet the cost of expanding production at its flagship Lihir gold mine in Papua New Guinea. ... Lihir took the unusual step of borrowing 480,000 ounces of gold from 12 banks and plans to sell the gold immediately on the spot-market, raising about $US216 million...<<<

It begs the question, why didn't Lihir simply borrow from its creditors the $216 million in 'fiat' cash to begin with?

Seems to me the financiers are doing their best to extend the game with anyone silly enough to commit their own gold reserves at these levels. But then again, maybe Lihir thought itself to be the one being equally proactive, assuming its underground reserves might as easily be 'nationalized' out from under it during this time.

Either way, the parties who take possession of this gold in the present will fair more certainly (securely) than the parties currently providing it (wittingly or unwittingly) for this commitment in unallocated form among these 12 banks.


BelgianGoldmines#1360199/15/05; 00:50:23

We seem to have forgotten (already) that the dollar-generals succeeded in pushing many mines into underground gold forward sales up to a total of plus minus 3,000 tonnes (IMF equivalent).
Indeed Sir TC : A 100% safe mine is a mine that mines forward sold gold ! Was the perfect protection against bankruptcy. Their financiers would never let them down as to continue to deliver the metal. Thanks WGC (smile Chris).

Nobody exposes the goldmining black box practices !!!

BelgianCruel oil#1360209/15/05; 04:23:35

US' SPR offers 30 m b and only 11 are taken. Financial media immediately trumpets this as a glut of oil on offer and a conondrum of the stubborn high oilprices.
OPEC members flash a lot of (inconsistant) statements through the newslines, once again. Qatar says that more crude oil is not going to solve the problem of high oilprices ! Are they meaning what we think they do ?

And finally the question on the financial media " WHY DO OILPRICES REMAIN THAT HIGH ? " comes more and more explicitely to the forefront. As if they have started to condition the public opinion...for who knows what.

The French finmin suggests to oil companies to remain "open" (?) to the oilprices. Will probably know somewhat later what exactly is meant by this.

Iran states that it is ready to cooperate on the exchange of nuclear technology with any Arab state (Saudi Arabia-?).
Is this provocation ?

Oil observers express their opinion that many major oilreserve owners are already massively investing in oil mobilization !? Nice idea...but...does that mean automatically that the future flow of more oil means cheaper "dollar" prices for the black liquid gold ?

I can easely understand that the media do have a tremendous impact on the perception building towards the general public. But it is NOT the general public that makes the (so called) markets ! What can possibly be the positive effect of fooling the public. How can a tapped public be encouraged by media propaganda to consume more products or to consume less oil distillates and causing changes in prices ? After every driving season there always comes a heating season. What has this to do with rising oilprices ?

Why not say the things as they are : Oil wants more for its precious product and like it or not, w're gone have to pay for it. But then immediately the populace is going to demand the states to do something about it ! And that's where the real problems will get out of hand (control).

The new Koizumi will effect in a stronger yen and less dollar-support : They are going to export some price inflation (devalue the purchasing power of the dollar reserve).

HenriBelgian msg 136016 Argentina#1360219/15/05; 06:08:35

Greetings my dear Belgian

Why is there the supposition in your text that Argentina must purchase its gold from another country. It is blessed with gold in the ground. If it is building its gold reserves, my first thought would be that it is doing so by purchases from mining operations within its own borders.

Thank you for your prolific and always interesting contributions of late to our humble forum

CaradocSpeaking of conundrums#1360229/15/05; 06:17:29

To raise cash, miner announces that from 12 banks he has borrowed 15 tonnes of gold be sold immediately and this announced sale (increased supply) causes the overnight spot price of gold to go..... UP! (al Jazeerah just showed 1-minute drop from 451.73 to 451.71.)

Curiouser and curiouser.... Your choice of the following:
(a) Sudden overnight demand more than enough to soak up 15 tonnes of gold.
(b) Rather than having 12 banks announce that their borrowers find previous loans (at $250 or $350) awkward to repay with gold at $450, it's much better to get a miner to assume those loans so as to roll over the repayment of loaned metal to some future date.

This scam works fine so long as we redefine the word "fungible"; i.e. "You can borrow my gold if you promise to return to me a piece of paper saying that someone else now owes me the return of my gold." The scam falls apart when someone has the nerve to say, "Uh, could I please have my gold back?"

The unwinding of this decades-long fraud will be a marvelous thing to watch.


PS: Update: 452.72. Has the unwinding begun?

CaradocGee, $454.52 already?#1360239/15/05; 06:30:38

20 or 30% probability that the long awaited unwinding actually began within the last hour. Maybe it's time for Drudge to announce it to the world?


PS: Down to 453.62 while typing the above. Hold on for the ride!

DruidBelgian (9/15/05; 04:23:35MT - msg#: 136020)#1360249/15/05; 06:40:18

Druid: This is the way my seeing eye glass views a portion of the future. The only way the American consumer can still remain in the consumption game is to have their wages move up big time. This would suggest that we need to break off trade relations with China because of the HUGE deflationary affect that Chinese imports are having on our wage/price structure in this country.

If we don't pursue this route, game over, in my opinion, in the very near future. The airlines are an excellent example of just how a quick and prolonged a oil squeeze can damage an industry in a very short time. The price inflation that is seeping its way from the paper markets to the physical economy is beginning to pick up a lot of force and momentum. But how to pull this off?

It seems that Japan has been a partner(I don't know if willing) to us for some time in matters of banking and finance. I think they will now become a partner militarily and create the JUSTIFICATION for us to break ties with China. Taiwan will be the flashpoint. By breaking off trade relations with China, this will allow us to ramp price/wage inflation in this country like you or I have never seen before. It will allow cover for the Fed to put the petal to the metal in terms of running the printing press regading the Katrina event and map over HUGE investment for our manufacturing, mining, drilling and whatever it takes to create a new boom in this country.

You're absolutely right about the oil producers wanting to be compensated more in dollar terms for their precious money. So is the hybrid compensation structure that ANOTHER pointed out to us so very long ago changing? Is the gold oz. portion of the deal beginning to come up short and thus more dollars are needed to make up the shortfall?

Have a great day Belgian.

heavy mettle(No Subject)#1360259/15/05; 07:34:52

TownCrier msg#: 136015)

"The point was that gold should not, must not, be entangled into the monetary realm of broken promises, shattered confidences, defaults and subsequent discounting or erosion of value. Instead, gold must be treated with the full-bodied respect it deserves as tangible property. A consolidation of wealth. Something to be owned in full -- either bought in full or sold in full; but never borrowed, because repayment obligations are never as certain (good) as the original gold."

I agree with your point of ‘free gold’ being tangible property and even better if not treated as money of the realm if only marked to market in a less manipulated atmosphere.

In your opinion, when the US, Europe and even Russia are rewriting the rules of property ownership in the name of imminent domain and other such verbiage for confiscation, how will ‘free gold’ hold up in the ‘Authoritarian Free Enterprise’ paradigm?

BelgianRe#1360269/15/05; 08:02:24

@ Henri : It would surprise me that Argentina managed to mine 50-60 tonnes in such a short time.
If one day we might learn that other CB gold has been shiped to would confirm/evidence the re-distribution sheme, including South America, that is going on. Argentina has enough valuable agricultural products to be swapped/bartered for gold, eventually. Or might have privileged another state to develop specific activities in exchange for gold. But beside these guesses, the impact of the announcement in London is definitely and important/relevant fact/event. If Argentina succeeded in mining that much gold and keep it in its is copying what Russia and China are doing. Not wasting a precious, universal reserve, on its way to full revaluation, by selling it into the dollar, gold-supressing, regime. What a beautifull change !

@Druid : Your story is exactly the one that the dollar is "driven" into >>> Hyper-inflation of the dollar ! Consequence = Loss of reserve status !
The dollar has already lost 2 battles : 1/ The golden one - 2/ The oil one...And now there's only one left (in progress) : The euro one ! This particular competition (nicer word for war) will be lost by the currency that loses its status (for the dollar that is reserve status) through infla-hyperinfla.

Breaking up with China would reduce the dollar's status at once ! Always keep expecting the unexpected on Japan (180° turn)! (Imperial) Japan will ultimately join Asia and drop Uncle Sam. Most probably after that a lot of US military technology has been transferred to Japan. (CFR. the US-Pakistan-India-Iran "nuclear" matters)

The last struggle is about the globe's reservedollar that has been systematically stripped of its former backings (gold standard - industrial production - oil - global support). The remaining military backing of the dollar is losing ground. This military power IS a dollar-inflating given. The US is falling victim of its own logic because it is losing former support. Cfr. the Shroder - Merkel (pro US-?) election struggle in Germany.

Belgian@ Caradoc#1360279/15/05; 08:58:16

You will only see goldprice "lift off"...if and when...1/ The Dow + 2/ The dollar (exch.rate-USDX) + 3/ Bonds ($-IRs) crash all together in ONE massive block.

In the mean time the pushing and pulling will go on as usual...but harder and harder of course.

GoldiloxNew Cafe Standards#1360289/15/05; 10:00:13

Rep. Boehlert, R-NY, was just on CNBC explaining the new CAFE standards bill update lifting vehicle mileage requirements from 25MPG to 33MPG. He says the Academy of Science has already verified that this is technologically feasible, so manufacturers should be "led" in that direction.

More force feeding of the car manufacturers? I wonder what "tax assistance" is included to encourage compliance?

As local governments and corporations fight for "scraps" of the failing dollar, it will be interesting to see what strains it applies to the $-IMS.

GoldiloxU.S. September Philadelphia Fed Factory Index Falls to 2.2#1360299/15/05; 10:18:16


Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Manufacturing growth in the Philadelphia area slowed more than expected this month as companies scaled back in anticipation of higher costs and weaker demand after the destruction caused by Hurricane Katrina.

The Fed Bank of Philadelphia's general economic index for September fell to 2.2 from 17.5 last month. A number greater than zero means a higher percentage of the area's factories surveyed reported business was improving than deteriorating.

Consumer and business confidence may flag after the Aug. 29 hurricane left an estimated 400,000 people jobless and pushed up prices of gasoline to records. Manufacturers including Hercules Inc., the world's largest producer of chemicals used to make paper, say higher costs of raw materials and energy will reduce profits and force them to raise prices.

"The business outlook was already becoming less optimistic, with rising energy costs hitting the bottom line, and now if consumers pull back on their spending after the hurricane, business confidence could plummet,'' Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. in New York, said before the report.

Economists expected the index to fall to 13, according to the median of 49 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a low of zero to a high of 20.


Not normally a big influence on SM indices, this announcement provoked a quick haircut in the DOW, according to CNBC.

GoldiloxPhilly FED#1360309/15/05; 10:19:59

Gold also bumped a buck and a half on the announcement, although the USDX looks flat so far.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.The fruit of your labor! Exchange seasonal dollars for everlasting value!#1360319/15/05; 11:19:16

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TownCrierKatrina begins to batter economy#1360329/15/05; 12:04:33

WASHINGTON -- Hurricane Katrina is starting to eat into the economy, leading to concern that consumers will lose confidence and curtail spending.

...Even before Katrina, the economy was weakening, according to the report Wednesday that showed retail sales plunged by 2.1 percent in August. That was the biggest since a 2.9 percent decline since November 2001, right after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

The August decline was twice the size economists had forecast.

The Congressional Budget Office reported last week that Katrina, the worst natural disaster to hit the United States, could trim economic growth by a full percentage point in the second half of the year.

^----(from url)----^

It's difficult to imagine the stock market doing well in such an environment.

However, as the reduced economic activity will make it harder for the government to finance its bloated budget through taxation, it will attempt bridge the gap by issuing more and more Treasury bonds, which probably won't bode well for the bond market, either.

Suffering stocks and bonds will likely cause international parties to call the value of U.S. dollars into question, as in, "Why are we holding them as our reserve asset?"

All to the benefit of the alternative reserve asset choice, gold.

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TownCrierGoldman, JP Morgan asked to lead Brazil real bond#1360339/15/05; 14:28:45

SAO PAULO, Brazil, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Brazil's Treasury ...[considering] ... a "possible sale" of a global bond denominated in the country's currency, the real.

It would be first such sale by the Treasury, which told the market on Friday it was thinking of selling a real-denominated bond overseas.

^----(from url)---^

Notable in that it is not a DOLLAR-denominated item.

More signs of a transition in progress.


TownCrierJapanese household savings hit record high, shift out of foreign currency#1360349/15/05; 14:43:11

TOKYO, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Japanese household savings rose to a record high at the end of June, bolstered by a solid domestic economic recovery that helped boost income, Bank of Japan data showed on Thursday.

They poured their money into government debt and mutual funds in the three months to June while slashing foreign currency deposits for the first time.

...Foreign currency deposits, which had been steadily growing because they offered higher interest rates compared with the rock-bottom rates at home, fell out of favour in the quarter to June.

Household deposits in foreign currency fell to 5.6 trillion yen from 5.9 trillion yen in March, the first decline on a quarterly basis since the central bank began collecting such quarter-on-quarter data in 1998.

More than half of household financial assets -- about 738 trillion yen -- are still in bank deposits, compared with only about 13 percent in the United States.

^---(from url)---^

Recent years have demonstrated that Japaneses savers know how to buy gold, and they have plenty of savings to move in that metallic direction -- merely awaiting an impetus to do so.

Get an early start. Choose gold.


BelgianNote that...#1360359/15/05; 14:46:22

This recent small uptick in goldprice - in € and $ - happens for the first time without significant change in €-$ exchange rate ! Let's watch for how long and big it lasts.

This might be in respons to the coming $-helicopter hurricane after Katrina !?

Or will the €-$ exchange rate correct on monday when the German election results are known ?
The US($) counts on a Angela Merkel victory as to reign in Putin and embrace Tony. But is this woman really the pro $ "angel" they are dreaming of ?

mikalDealers meeting with Fed now#1360369/15/05; 15:19:40

NY Fed, Dealers Meet In CDS Summit - Reuters - 09-14-05
Brief mention given to derivatives meeting starting @ 4:00 EST today.
There's more to this than meets the eye. Have they met their (derivatives) match or will they just conclude "We have to stop meeting like this?"

TownCrierFrom the trading desk...#1360379/15/05; 15:35:36

Jonathan tells me that even as the gold price is rising, premiums are rising, too, and some pre-33 coins have dried up on the market. The ubiquitous and ever-present gold Swiss Francs are currently nowhere to be found and the popular gold German Marks have become equally scarce.

Might be a good time to phone in and try to land whatever you can before the next ratcheting tightens things further.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1360389/15/05; 16:04:34">
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Thursday Market Excerpts

(from MarketWatch) -- "Gold is strong despite a recent slightly firmer 'paper dollar'," said John Stafford, editor of Stafford's Investment Strategy Letter, adding that prices are "headed to $500 and then well beyond that into the several thousands of 'paper dollars' per ounce in coming decades."

He sees higher prices for gold "because of actual physical demand, as well as in further anticipation of the longer-term price-inflationary effects of the Feds' reckless ... policy-generated 'money' and bank credit 'out of thin air'."

Thursday's gain for gold came as financial markets digested a heavy menu of U.S. economic data, including retail-level inflation for August.

"With the economic data now on the Street, the precious metals markets are being bid higher in spite of their overbought condition and some strength in the dollar," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends in Commodities. "This is actually a very positive sign for gold because the market is now trading on its own merits," he said.

From here, while gold "remains vulnerable to sharp but short corrections -- the least resistance is up," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

TownCrierGold set to remain above 9,000 baht#1360399/15/05; 16:17:11

(Bangkok Post) Friday 16 Sept 2005 -- Gold prices have risen over the last five days, with the domestic price including the goldsmith fee exceeding 9,000 baht and expected to increase further well into next year...

"Retail gold trading is very quiet right now, as nobody is buying and selling," said Jitti Tangsithpakdi, president of the Gold Traders' Association and Chin Hua Heng Goldsmith outlet.

"Due to relatively expensive gold prices, buyers are reluctant to purchase, while sellers are waiting for the prices to go up further."

According to Mr Jitti, the gold price is expected to rise further over the next three months given the pressure from high oil prices, inflation and interest rates and foreign-exchange volatility.

"I think the gold price is more likely to rise than fall at present," said Mr Jitti.

He added that domestic gold prices were expected to swing over the next three months to reflect the world market.

Investment in gold has become more popular worldwide... Gold has shrugged off a firmer dollar and was gaining strength after pausing for breath since hitting a 2005 peak at $451.50 on Monday.

^----(from url)---^

As buyers and sellers stalemate while each side wants the best possible deal, the position of strength goes to the side currently holding the gold, as it is the nature of dollars to weaken on the sidelines during the waiting game.

Do what needs doing to position yourself in strength.


TownCrierForeign cenbanks net sellers of US debt#1360409/15/05; 16:50:19

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Foreign central banks were again sellers of U.S. government debt in the latest week, but sold U.S. Treasuries while buying U.S. agency securities, Federal Reserve data showed on Thursday.

The Fed said its overall holdings of Treasury and agency debt kept for overseas central banks fell by $5.943 billion in the week ended Sept. 14 to stand at $1.460 trillion.

The breakdown of custody holdings showed overseas central banks sold $10.731 billion in Treasury debt but bought $4.789 billion in agency debt, in the latest addition of this class of debt.

^----(from url)----^

These reflect the Fed's custodial holdings. Can only speculate at the related activity involving official accounts held offshore.


Federal_ReservesOn the road to bankruptcy.#1360419/15/05; 16:59:55

Year Debt Growth

This spending its outrageous. Burn rate around 500-600billion a year!Future and current commitments continue to grow. It isn't FEMA is FUBAR. Fiscal irresponsibility continues and the war drags on. Its guns and butter, chickens in every pot, unless and until they come home to roost first. And of course, all this is good for gold.

melda laureTC, TIC report#1360429/15/05; 17:47:10

What about the idea that it doesn't matter, since the Bermuda Hedge Vortex will absorb as many bonds as the foreign CB's are willing to part with?

Of course that malestrom SUCKS in bonds at sea level and vomits them out as CASH dollars in the stratosphere. I wonder what those foreign CB's will do with their cash?

Am I right in the assertion that these dollars are effectivly on deposit at the FED or other New York banks?

I wonder how long Greenie will pick at the dyke and raise rates.

Snip: "Unfortunately, the latest TIC has some ominous undertones. Foreign purchases of Treasuries dropped to their lowest level since September 2003, and private overseas investors actually sold 3.3 billion more Treasury Bonds and Notes than they bought. The divestment of Treasuries was compensated for by a huge surge in hedge fund purchases of corporate bonds, a result not likely to repeat."

Hmmm... "Repeat!" If memory serves, that's an old artillery command, given once the bombs are falling on target. (ie: fire again at the same azimuth/range settings)

melda laureBears "repeating."#1360439/15/05; 17:50:41

"The rally came as gold was in the rare position of breaking from its close inverse relationship with the dollar, which climbed against the euro on Thursday."

Classic! DX flat. AU up!

DemosthenesEconomist Column#1360449/15/05; 19:06:17

This week's Buttonwood column in The Economist talks about oil and gold. An interesting little read. I would recommend the article as a decent primer for somebody who "understands" economics somewhat but maybe isn't well versed in gold and who wants their news from a "respectable" publication.

Any body else agree?

Chris PowellDennis Gartman just hates gold ... all the way to the bank#1360459/15/05; 19:20:42

Latest GATA dispatch.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

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SundeckQuiz#1360469/15/05; 19:33:06

Question: What goes: "Tick, tick, tick, tick...KAPOW!"?

Answer: !troper CIT ehT ohjfwihvdb

White HillsArtillery#1360479/15/05; 20:10:10

SundeckGold price action#1360489/15/05; 20:22:08

Now why is gold running against the dollar trend lately?

- New Central Bank Gold Agreement sales do not commence until 26 Sep 05? Is 500 tonnes per year enough?...see below.

- Market expecting Greenie to hold off on interest rates to help economy in wake of Katrina?

- Market anticipating additional government spending to rebuild NO etc. and offset hardship in Katrina's wake?

- Market wary about foreigners continueing to fund US Government borrowings...TIC Tock Report?

- New mine production in 2004 was 2464 tonnes...continueing a decline in production over several years; and for first half of 2005 estimated gold consumption was 1939 tonnes (3878 annualised...a deficit of ****1414 tonnes**** p.a.). (From yesterday's Aust. Fin. Rev. - quoting WGC and GFMS.)

- All this sitting on top of trade deficits, wars, the Theory of Derivativety, Humpty Dumpty Dollar, the imminent end of the Greenspan Era, etc. etc. name it?



Gandalf the WhiteL@@K !!! --- the little GREEN "X's" are BACK ! <;-)#1360499/15/05; 22:01:44$GOLD,PWTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

More to come !
Chris PowellFinancial houses pledge to police derivatives themselves to keep regulators out#1360509/15/05; 22:10:43

Latest GATA dispatch.

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mikalIs Greenbuck's back against the wall?#1360519/15/05; 22:36:39

Will the Iranian Oil Bourse Threaten the Dollar? - - September 13, 2005
Explosive? Or just fascinating?
Recommended reading IMHO.
Article appeared in Al-Jazeera but I linked the original source, The Philadelphia Church of God's Trumpet site.

SundeckFinancial houses police derivatives themselves...yep, sounds OK to me!#1360529/15/05; 22:59:15

The fox in charge of the hen-house?

The inmates running the ASSylum? (The delusional doyens of debt-driven derivative-land?)

The Theory of Derivativity:

End-game = MassConfusion_squared

Naaaah...she'll be right mate! Derivatives REDUCE the risk across the financial system, don't they? That's what Greenie said. A risk-free world...just like USTs = "risk-free" securities. Wheee! I feel so secure and FREE!

(Sundeck had too much sun again?)


SundeckDollar down#1360539/15/05; 23:28:12

Ooops...Humpty Dollar is getting the wobbles...

Get ready with your GREEN PEN Sir Gandalf!


SundeckIranian oil bourse#1360549/15/05; 23:38:59


Mmmm...sounds interesting...I wonder how this issue is being treated inside Treasury walls around the world?

Would probably be in everyone's interst for this thing to start up slowly on low volume...perhaps offering contracts in both Euros as well as Dollars in the beginning.

It amazes me that Iran seems Hell-bent on sticking to its rights to pursue its own nuclear program while at the same time planning to start up this new oil bourse. TWO provocative acts unfolding at the same time. Sure, they probably have every right to do as they please, but have they heard of the word "discretion"???

And what is the Eurobank going to do...start creating petro-euros for all they are worth?

Where is Aristotle??


KnallgoldIran#1360559/15/05; 23:49:11

"It amazes me that Iran seems Hell-bent on sticking to its rights to pursue its own nuclear program while at the same time planning to start up this new oil bourse."Sundeck

Well,one backs up the other.

GoldendomePresident's message promises further monetary inflation.#1360569/16/05; 00:05:16

This past evening President Bush pledged to undertake one of the largest rebuilding and development campaigns in history, in the wake of Hurricane Kat. With that, he more than likely assures the largest "Guns and Butter" economy since the last Texan (Lyndon Johnson) occupied the White House during the troubled Viet Nam and Great Society spending era.

While already expanding the Federal deficit by nearly $600,000,000,000 (billion) in the past year (thanks Sir F.R. for the debt updates), the President's proposals will push that figure closer to the trillion dollar a year deficits that some at this site have predicted.

We now see Gold beginning to break through dollar resistance, signaling the markets fear of future dollar inflation and further trashing of it's already steadily declining value.

We see today reports on this site of growing abstinence to buy U.S. bonds. And should the Iranian Euro Oil Bourse come to pass, a lower world demand next year for the inflated dollars now needed to conduct oil trade.

SundeckIran#1360579/16/05; 00:09:58


One backs the other?

Well, yes perhaps so...but I would have thought that they would have many powerful friends with an interest in their petroleum reserves who would/could provide support on the world stage (financially and militarily, if necessary - Europe? China?) without them resorting to their own brand of brinkmanship.

I have no particular bias either way, other than the desire to see less tension in the world.


Belgian@ Demosthenes - The Economist (respectable publication-?)#1360589/16/05; 00:28:22

What a boring (gold-mantra) article ! The old gold-yadayada all over again and again (3 decades)!
Call the publication respectable for its efforts to stay neutral and not hate or love gold. Content value = zero.

Writing publicly..." the purchasing power of gold has been badly eroded..." without any comment on this (correct) observation, isn't that respectable at all, imo.
And the author seems to know at least something about gold > a commodity, an investment, a means of exchange.

But, just like in the old days, gold gets the media as soon as its price starts to show signs of life.
Then gold will be relativated...ridiculed...hated those same -respectable- media ! And this same old strategy will impact the general public, much as it has impacted them (their psychology versus gold) during the past 3 decades.

But, this will be different ! The absolute majority will sit and wait for the facts (gold's revaluation) usual !

Does the auther has any idea about the real purchasing power that gold should have !? Not a (respectable) word about this ! These matters must remain absolutely vague/opaque (cfr. POO/POG price-relationship).

And since it is now public knowledge that the "Gartman's" do hate (appreciating) gold...just imagine how the (gold)euro(concept) is hated...on top of the existing gold-hate !

But I do remember the gold-press in the run up to gold's ATH-1980. No hate but 100% PANIC !

So, I have a question for you Sir Demosthenes (nice alias btw) : What are you looking for in the respectable media...that you cannot find in usagold's archives ? Nice day to you.

Caradoc@Belgian re: launch?#1360599/16/05; 00:33:31

Maybe tonight's price action doesn't qualify as a "launch," but my 10-second window says Au just dropped from $458.28 to $457.97. Bad news like this I can cope with.


PS: Even more bad news: Gold just plunged from 458.48 all the way down to 458.22.

KnallgoldSundeck#1360609/16/05; 00:44:57

I'm somewhat worried too on this one.On the other hand,where nukes are,there were no more wars.I'm not sure how evil Iran really is.What I know though is the only nation who used the bomb against civilians is the US.We'll watch how this evolves.An (euro)oiltrading platform is just not something evil.
DoubleEagleRe: Caradoc#1360619/16/05; 00:55:59

I refuse to be excited by spot sitting at $458, because too many nights like this have ended with a paper player pushing the big red sell button just after the London close. Almost always on a Friday, too. You wonder if the evil gold hating cabal still find shearing the bugs amusing, or if it's just become a job like any other.


Knallgold?#1360629/16/05; 05:22:20

Derivative meeting has been a no-more-Gold-derivative meeting?
BoilermakerIran's Nuclear Bargaining Chip#1360639/16/05; 06:01:44

"UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - European nations pleaded with Iran on Thursday to reconsider their proposals for nuclear cooperation as international support for referring Tehran to the U.N. Security Council next week ebbed.
Iran's new president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad raised the stakes in a standoff with the West over his country's nuclear ambitions by offering to share its atomic know-how with other Islamic nations in the Middle East and Africa, alarming the United States"

I suspect that Iran is establishing a bargaining position by proposing this provocative nuclear proliferation. It seems to me that they will now be in a position to get serious leverage in other matters such as oil for Euros. The nuclear proliferation bargaining chip (wild card) can be played to great advantage.

mikalWaiting on OPEC Meeting in Vienna Monday#1360649/16/05; 06:07:42

Chavez Sees 'True Crisis' Over Oil Reserves - Forbes - 09/16/05
Just days after Steve Forbes bearish comments on oil, his braintrust releases this. Got an economy car?

BoilermakerNuclear Poker#1360659/16/05; 06:26:31

Further to my last post re Iran's nulcear ambitions, it would not be at all surprising to see Iran demand that Israel's nuclear weapons be put on the table in this nuclear poker game.
Clink!Iran#1360669/16/05; 07:03:50

It appears to me that both the nuclear development and the oil bourse possibly have exactly the same intent - challenge the (waning) authority of the world's remaining superpower. The US has built its dominant position in the world on the double foundation of military strength and financial advantage. Iran, the country whose leader called the US "Satan" a generation before the US leader called it "evil", has perhaps realized that it is in a unique position to change the world order by challenging exactly those two advantages head-on.

On the military side, if everyone has nuclear capability then it ceases to be an advantage. Even if the technology is only used for power generation purposes, who would notice a few pounds here or there going missing ? And we have talked a lot about what Euro pricing of oil would do to the dollar.

The US is obviously extremely vulnerable from a financial point of view with guns, butter and reconstruction adding to an already unsustainable situation. But what concerns me even more in this game of brinkmanship is that during the sabre-rattling concerning Iran, all the commentary that I have read was to the effect that Iran had better be careful because of all the US presence in countries surrounding Iran. (Call me contrary (as well as contrarian !) but if everyone says the same thing, I tend to wonder what the REAL story is) It could also be said that there are 140,000 US citizens (+ how many more mercenaries (er, excuse me, KBR security consultants)) who have been placed outside the protection of the majority of the US military capability because they are surrounded by Iraqi civilians. That's a lot of potential hostages.

We live in dangerous times.


Belgian@Boilermaker#1360679/16/05; 07:36:44

Israel has no nuclear bombs...on its territory !

Gold-derivatives : The 1,082 tonnes of Belgian Treasury gold
have travelled to their hiding place during a program that started in 1989. During those 15 years ('89 > '05) of gold mobilization the euro goldprice never breached the ceiling of 350 €/Oz ! Now it has (370 €/Oz). Belgian Treasury has 218 tonnes left.

Gold reserves that go hiding (are moved under one form of the other) over a period of 15 years when for that same period the goldprice remains frozen. Extremely remarkable, no !
And now that almost all the gold has moved, the goldprice shows a remarkable (significant) move with piercing out of the deepfreeze box (trading range) !

Think about this when you went hiding !

YGMBelgian#1360689/16/05; 08:16:34

Do ever suppose all that Gold that went hiding and alot of the CB Gold sales over the years ended up in allocated acc'ts @ BIS. I've always felt like the banksters were far too smart to give away all their Gold reserves, but were simply engaged in the greatest smoke & mirror facad the world has ever seen. Maybe at the end of the day "certain" CB's will have more Gold than when the Gold wars began???
GoldiloxMore Smoke and Mirrors#1360699/16/05; 08:47:14

@ Belgian, YGM,


"We note that governments are doing their best to revalue their existing gold reserves without putting them on the public market because they need to beef up their books and selling gold to themselves to revalue from $35 levels makes a lot of sense" . . .


Interestingly, George Ure suggests a similar tactic of "gold disapperance" in today's Urbansurvival.

One has to wonder if the reported decrease in peroleum production is not the same smoke and mirrors - decrease public production by off-the-books swaps tp private (military or SPR) production.

With governments rattling sabres and going broke simultaneously, there seems to be a lot of "wealth hiding" chatter in the ether, similar to the actions that inspired the original "Trading with the Enemy" act. No one wants to see THEIR gold trucked out or confiscated for "military adventures". Perhaps the smaller fry "appear" to sell their gold in order to remove it from the books before it is demanded as "protection money" by coalition strongmen.

We've often opined why Japan's gold reserves are reportedly so small? They would be one of the first pressured to give them up for "protection". If their CB reserves are heavily weighted in US$, they pay their share in Kimberly-Clark!

Puts a new perspective on "Please don't squeeze the Charmin!"

Just a thought . . .

GoldiloxCurrent Account Deficit#1360709/16/05; 08:50:06


Want to become an international economist is 30 seconds? Ask what was the increase in the value of U.S. holdings overseas in the report (+$250.8 billion) versus the increase in foreign ownership in the United States (+$393.1 billion) in the report. Subtract one from the other and you get a number that I regret to advise you is a net increase in foreign ownership of U.S. assets of $142.3 billion, something that I look at as though it were an assets minus liabilities equals owner's equity kind of equation. We don't own as much of our own country as we used to - or put another way, globalism is selling our country out from under us.

Watch the spin on this: The current account deficit hasn't decreased - it has merely slowed a bit. If you were bailing water from a boat, the boat would still have more water coming in than you were bailing, but the rate at which the water is being shipped aboard is a bit slower. When you think about it, you can see that the ship will still sink - but it will take a few extra minutes as the water is coming in slower. Big effing whoop. But watch the market rally on this stuff - such is the "art" of spin - something that during World War II would have been called propaganda.


Oops, this might qualify as "squeeezing the Charmin, after all".

GoldiloxU.S. Consumer Confidence Plunges After Hurricane#1360719/16/05; 09:08:39


Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence fell to the lowest since 1992 after Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast and pushed gasoline prices to a record high, raising concern that Americans may curtail spending.

The University of Michigan's preliminary index of consumer sentiment fell to 76.9 this month from 89.1 in August, surpassing even the drop following the 2001 terror attacks as the biggest decline since December 1980.

``These are abysmal numbers, suggesting a deeply pessimistic consumer in the first half of September,'' when gasoline prices peaked and officials were predicting as many as 10,000 deaths, said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. ``Things still appear grim, but are not nearly as bad as that. We look for some recovery in confidence as early as the final September report.''

The survey reinforced concerns that high gasoline prices may slow consumer spending and hurt sales at retailers such as Wal- Mart Stores Inc. and Best Buy Co. Government reports yesterday showed the hurricane pushed up consumer prices in August, drove manufacturers' costs higher this month and prompted the biggest weekly jump in jobless claims in nine years.

Low's forecast of 78 was the most pessimistic in a Bloomberg News survey of 53 economists, where the median estimate was 85. The preliminary reading is based on a phone survey of about 300 households. The university will release a final report with a sample size of 500 on Sept. 30.


Double-digit drops in CC do not portend well for retail and the SM. Frightened John Q's will turn to anything they can to shore up their pitiful "savings". The smart ones will navigate to PMs.

YGMGoldilox#1360729/16/05; 09:50:52

Once years ago in a reply to a question I put forth to Another, he told me in the usual cryptic fashion that I should not be surprised to see some day that countries like Canada (who sold their Gold reserves) may look towards nationalizing Gold mines & as such resource (Gold rich) nations will always have a constant supply of reserve Gold. We in the west think we have total democracy in Gov't, but few realize we have creeping socialisim. Maybe Another saw alot more coming down the pike than some give him credit for.
mikal@YGM#1360739/16/05; 10:55:05

The jackboots will not be hard put to deliver the goods
to keep social order.
There's no holding them back in hard times, just falling back with hidden hard holdings.
Good post.

geNY gold stretches to new 17-year peak in early trade#1360749/16/05; 11:07:52

"... The session high was the loftiest level ... since June 1988..."
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Since 1973. Proven Reliability, Longevity, Quality and Professionalism ---- Invest with Confidence!!#1360759/16/05; 12:06:23

PanNOT AGAIN PLEASE !!!#1360769/16/05; 12:23:20

GoldiloxIMF Blue Light Special#1360779/16/05; 13:34:56

@ Pan,

Notice this time it is being pushed by India, the one of the largest importers of gold. They would like to see some seasonal relief in the short term-prices.

Bottom line, this is just a perception cry, as NONE of the CB sales ever make it to "market". The left pocket is not allowed to know what the right pocket contains!

Unless they can dump IT below $450 in a fell swoop, their cause is lost!

GoldiloxDX madness#1360789/16/05; 13:38:08

Unable to contain PoG, the ESF has run DX back near its 88.50 resistance. Gold buyers are completely ignoring this run!

The last time the dollar was here, gold was trudging through $424.

Goldilox"Creepy Socialism" in Neo Orleans#1360799/16/05; 14:26:31

@ YGM,

No doubt - well evidenced by Trump, et al, tripping over himself to jump on the bandwagon and redevelop Bush's [En]Gulf Economic Zone. Notice the upbeat air play on CNBC about how they are "economically rescuing" casino workers!

Neo Orleans will be the HQ of the NWO Globalist Economy, while insurance defaults and jackboot troops will drive previous residents elsewhere, at least those willing to abandon their property in order to survive. Redevelopment Tax Incentives will ensure that the NEW owners of the Neo Orleans resorts pay NOTHING and rely totally on government and gratuitous funding.

The FEMA contractor hired to dispose of bodies already has black marks on its reputation for shady body dealings, but hey, expediency counts (as does unquestioned loyalty)!

As in the poor districts of FL, where Charley leveled hundreds of mobile home parks, but only "officially" notched a couple hundred deaths, Neo Orleans death counts will also be grossly understated for emotional effect. The compliant media will investigate nothing, as, by FEMA edict, they aren't even allowed to accompany the body search teams.

Displacement garners public sympathy when such genocide really deserves outrage. Besides, bleeding hearts can be counted on for $Billions in donations to "help someone" and be completely misdirected from the thousands of deaths and millions of acres of property confiscation to further enrich the gang!

Hmmm, seven evenly spaced inland dyke breaches more than 12 hours after the hurricane already passed, but oh well, no one's looking anyway.

Now some Rabbi is calling Katrina "God's retribution for chasing out the Gaza settlers" (,7340,L-3138779,00.html), while equivalent anti-Zionist nut-jobs are claiming it is God's retribution for genocide in Iraq.

Whatever happened to the God that just turned individual guilty parties to stone instead of murdering millions of indigent innocents to "glorify" the Junta? Is He losing his "touch", or are we so dumbed down by our daily dose of "Bush and Busch" that we can actually buy this crud?

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#13608009/16/05; 17:12:12">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Friday Market Excerpts

September 16 (from Reuters) -- Gold touched its highest mark since June 1988 on Friday as inflation worries, uncertainty about the U.S. economy and strong physical demand sparked heavy fund buying.

Traders said an absence of central bank selling over the past three weeks, as European banks had reached the limit of a pact restraining sales, had removed an important price cap.

"Gold is really looking good now and seems to have a clear upside objective," said Mark Keenan, fund manager at UK-based MPC Commodity Fund.

"You've got three of the strongest fundamental drivers of gold that are currently converging, so it is very difficult to make a bearish case for it."

He was referring to a weak dollar, rising inflationary expectations on strong oil prices and the seasonal upturn in physical demand.

Many analysts are looking for prices of gold to target $500 and above next year for the first time since 1987. That still remains well off bullion's 1980 high of $850, when it was bought as a hedge to protect against inflation.

"I think the discussion for gold being a hedge against rising inflation has intensified and that could be why we are seeing buying now, here in the Western world," said Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach, head of metals marketing at Heraeus.

Bullion's rise has not been limited to dollar-gold. Prices have set a record high in euro and 14-year peaks in yen.

"I would expect more buying certainly from the trend-following fund community, a new high will attract a degree of momentum buying," MPC's Keenan said.

New York's COMEX gold futures rallied to a 17-year high in the benchmark contract on Thursday and then extended gains on Friday.

COMEX December gold futures climbed $4 to end at $463.30. The rally this week has added $10, or 2.3 percent, to the price of the heavily traded contract.

GuidedQuestion#13608109/16/05; 17:25:02

What is this about?:

seven evenly spaced inland dyke breaches more than 12 hours after the hurricane already passed

TownCrier'An Inherent Flaw' -- latest update of the Rocket School by Prof. vonBraun#13608209/16/05; 18:24:05


Most of us have realized by now that the US financial system is in an 'interesting' situation.

Various postulations and explanations have been formulated as to what's going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

Back in the late 1990's it was of course the stock market boom, and in particular the tech bubble -- which did burst -- and here we all are 5 years later with no seemingly devastating effects. Now it's either the housing bubble or the trade deficit or the US dollar collapse.

The same pundits have merely changed horses and are still calling for a crash -- the crash, any old crash, as long as there is a crash.

Bob Prechter ( still touts his book 'Conquer The Crash' and in a recent 'Special Edition' of the Elliott Wave Theorist he postulated, "Every asset class except cash and safe debt is poised to break down".

In recent issues of EWT he has also taken to task other commentators such as Marc Faber and more recently Jim Rogers for presenting apparently wrong opinions about gold and commodities respectively, seemingly because their opinions don't coincide with Mr. Prechter's own views.

But one has to ask the question as to what 'cash' is, and what is 'safe debt'? According to Mr. Prechter they are an 'asset' class. So what is an asset? One would like to think that an asset is something you can rely upon to perform when you need it.....

......Given what we have seen in New Orleans of recent weeks, Nature has the ability to lay havoc to the best (and not-so-best) laid plans. Electronic banking may be a wonderful thing but it's not very helpful when your ATM is under eight feet of water or has no electricity.

The financial industry relies on electronic money, or digits; numbers in a monetary system that really doesn't mean anything when it comes to holding cash. They far outnumber the printed counterpart, and that's fine -- as long as things continue to hold together. But to conquer the crash one should not be relying on them.

Should 1% of the population decide to go to cash and they wanted $50,000 apiece, that's about $150 billion, which is nearly half of the available cash in circulation.

Personally I would much prefer to be holding something that might decline in price, but retains its inherent value as in an ounce of gold being an ounce of gold, than I would be to hold 'safe' debt instruments denoted in an unsafe (and as yet untested under pressure) fiat currency.

Where are the buyers going to come from to purchase from the banks their 'assets'? Could the Federal Reserve step in and start buying US Treasuries and give the banks the liquidity they might need should you want your cash in the hand rather than in digits? Well they could, but the printing presses would be working 24 hours per day for quite some time I suspect.

What would maintain the value, the purchasing power of the dollar, when it became known that the lender of last resort was now accumulating debt that could never be repaid as a last resort?

What would that do to the 'price' of real assets?

One needs to be very careful about the idea of conquering the crash since crashes are usually not explainable until after they happen. The venerable Richard Russell ( said it best in a recent commentary when he said that it's those that lose the smallest amount that remain in a position of strength. He also recommends accumulating gold and silver.

Meanwhile as long as the bullion dealers are happy to accept electronic digits as payment for physical gold and silver one should be accumulating a supply while one can. Safe harbors and safe havens may have their place, but at a distance may not be one of them.

---(see url for full commentary)---

DemosthenesGold and the mainstream media#13608309/16/05; 19:05:37

Let's suppose you are the typical American (I have to use American because that's what I know) upper middle class individual. You own your own home, have a car or two, some kids, some credit card debt. Where do you go for financial advice? CNN. You'll watch the Suze Orman show. Maybe ask a co-worker that you know invests, who likely gets their information from tthese same sources or even more dubious ones. What do all of them tell you to invest your money in? Stocks. Diversification means adding bonds. You will hear some complicated methods for detemrining the correct stock to bonds allocation. Have you read any of CNN's articles on people who are on their may to having a million dollar "net worth". In most cases 90 percent of that "net worth" is real estate equity. That's the formula that people are given. Buy a house. Max out your 401(k). Put you money in stocks. Expect to average ten percent a year. Gold never fits into the equation. I remember reading an article at a well-known web site that a co-worker recomended that compared the long-term results of different investments. This one actually mentioned gold. According to this article, gold was a bad investment because from the year 1933 to 1970 gold hardly increased in value at all. Let that sink in for a second. This is a very popular website, too. This is the perception of gold that people have.

Let's say the investor is feeling daring, though. Let's say the investor still wants to find out more about gold. The natural place to look is at websites. USAGOLD is very high in google's rankings(that's how I found it). There is a lot of wonderful information here. It really helped me get started. Unfortunately, on a given day on this forum we are likely to read several posts about government conspiracies and cabals and the end of the world as we know it. I make no judgment about how accurate these claims are and I certainly enjoy the free enchange of ideas, but the average investor-class individual is likely to be scared off. And of all the places that talk about gold and conspiracies, etc., this place has the highest signal to noise ratio that I've seen. There are a lot of crazy people out there. If you REALLY want the price of gold coins to take off, the average investor must be interested.

If you are this investor, I believe that the previously cited article is a good start in understanding gold from a standard, impartial print source. As good as the sources are here, remember that CPM is in the business of selling gold. People will be skeptical. Last I checked, the Economist is in the business of selling magazines and advertisements. From the point of view of an American, the Economist is a news magazine that advocates the free-market but from an outsiders's perspective, being centered in England. If you read many of the articles as I do, you will find that they say a lot of what we say here about deficits, spending, currency, etc. It is very even-handed. I do not agree with all of their conclusions, but I don't agree with all of the conclusions reached here either. If the two people I know (including mysself) who regurally

In short, there are many ways to communicate the value of gold. Different people will respond differently.

Post isn't quite as coherent as I would have liked, I wrote it off the cuff. I'll do better another time , it's been a long day.

R PowellDemosthenes#13608409/16/05; 19:46:53

I have often mentioned or encouraged when others mentioned economic matters that were newsworthy. Most of my friends + clients (mostly home builders) are only interested and only somewhat informed on the current news items, recently the cost of energy. I'll agree that some watch a little CNBC but the majority that I have spoken with over many years have very little knowledge of economics beyond their own pragmatic expenses. This lack of knowledge + accompanying lack of interest in anything economic beyond the daily lottery numbers is common among the rich + the poor as well as among the educated + not well-learned that I've encountered. They think that I'm very odd to have an interest in such things.

As for investments, many have some sort of retirement fund but know absolutely nothing about exactly where their money is invested other than some recollection about low, medium and/or high risk categories. They're invested in mutual funds (long side of markets, ONLY) but don't understand or care to understand anything about them. Many seem to believe that the government controls the stock markets, the economy and the general well being. What scares me is that they believe this is as it should be.

Those who actually pick their own stocks, bonds, or other investment vehicles are very rare, at least among those I have talked with. Commodity and/or derivatives traders are an even rarer breed, extremely hard to find. Physical metal collectors are not so rare but most are more coin collectors than "goldbugs".

It will be interesting to see, as you refered to, whether the gold move has enough basic fundamental support (supply/demand balance, etc.) to spark investor interest and finally those unknowing souls whose money is now in mutual funds. If this happens, then the POG may very well reach mania dot-com levels in $$ terms. I certainly hope they take silver along for the ride insane levels.
happy weekend + peace to all

Goldiloxbreeches#13608509/16/05; 21:57:29

@ Guilded,

Won't go into it all here, but more can be found at:

GoldiloxGold and the "average" investor#13608609/16/05; 22:07:45

@ Demosthenes,

"According to this article, gold was a bad investment because from the year 1933 to 1970 gold hardly increased in value at all. Let that sink in for a second. This is a very popular website, too. This is the perception of gold that people have."

If that doesn't cool their jets, they then see that between 1980 and 2005 gold has "lost" 40%. Very few dig deep enough to see the "trail" and its various driving forces. Too many only want the thrill of 1980, without understanding "why".

The slow steady growth in PoG from 1999 to today's high has been excruciating for the "big bang" hopefuls, who have missed a great performing asset. They don't understand an investment that you don't jump into and out of regularly to "reward' your broker!

GoldendomeThis second term is essentially OVER!#13608709/16/05; 23:02:16

I don't know what the West Germans felt about the economic strain placed upon their system when they integrated and spent billions upgrading their East German brethren after reunification of that country, but I get the feeling here that we may get the feeling as our government moves to do "the right thing" and the President attempts by spending billions in the Southeast to assuage his feelings of guilt and blame (rightly or wrongly) involved with the hurricane.

I admit, I am not a big fan of the President--even though I did vote for him...once. And some of us voted the first time for Mr. Bush with great expectations that are now shambles!

Lets face it, this President is now a lame duck. This Presidency is now on automatic pilot for the next three years--barring an airliner into the Capitol building. Social Security reform: forget about it. Iraq: forget about it. Any agenda: forget about it. The President and his Republican--so called--conservative party, on the defensive for the next three years. And what conservative? Certainly not when it comes to blowing money, spending it like it was his. The way the federal government talks these days about spending hundreds of billions of dollars all over the place just makes us know that money has no meaning to them...They print it up--borrow it--it is nothing, they have unlimited access to dollars to spend, no limit.
As a struggling business owner, spending hour upon hour stuggling to make a few bucks, the spectacle is disgusting.

Iraq is a disaster. Nearly three years after the invasion, we can't even control the capital city! The only apparently safe local in Afghanistan may be Kabul.

The President now plans to rebuild the Gulf Coast, which observers feel will equal the costs of our ill-begotten Middle East plan costs, that continue on and on....

You know one of the things that really makes me upset? It's this: The national guard in these areas were not there to be "THE NATIONAL GUARD" you know, the guys who are supposed to be at home for NATIONAL Emergencies!!!!

From all 'round the area have come subtle pleas for understanding from national guard commanders. " We would have been there but our guys are deployed elsewhere, or just returned from deployment."

Now, we will pay higher insurance premiums all over the U.S. as Gulf coast states enforce insurance payments from insurance companies for insurance whose premiums were never collected (flood and hurricane insurance).

The dollars saved or held all over the world will again be compromised by a profligate government. Why tax and spend, when you can create and Spend? We're doomed, by a bunch of over paid, over benefited, posturing government morons!@

We see with this administration a merger of large corporate and government. Already large no-bid contracts for clean up and restoration have been awarded to the same large corporations that we have become familiar with in this sort of endeavor. (The money flows to the friends and connected in Washington.) No matter the calamity, the disaster, the same likely suspects are always there to collect the government created largess.

Gandalf the WhiteCan you say ----- BREAKOUT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <;-)#13608809/16/05; 23:29:12$GOLD,PWTADANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

Nice looking GOLD P&F Chart tonight !

Liberty HeadIt Won't Be Over At The End Of The Second Term#13608909/17/05; 00:04:34

Our country's problems are not about any individual politician or any party. Most citizens still support gov't use of force for the false promise of fairness in life. While folks have plenty of anger to vent at the next election, there is no newfound wisdom to be seen. They will gobble up all the empty, feelgood election rhetoric time and time again. The more upset folks get, the easier they are to manipulate.
In the heat of passion and the absence of critical thought our next leaders will be chosen. The USA and the dollar will continue to go downhill for many years to come.
It's not much of a consolation, but owning some gold will increase ones chances of surviving the "Pits of Eternal Dispair" this country has become.

Best Wishes

contrarianLiberty Head#13609009/17/05; 00:47:15

Yes, the country has gone to the pits. To think, a self-sufficient economy and populace, too proud to accept welfare, with manufacturing of all kinds, has let itself be sold up the river to foreigners--and greedy CEOs of all stripes.

It's the pillage of everything that prior generations worked for, and were proud to work for, like my father and grandfather--a short term satiation at the expense of long term security.

There was a day when there were corporate and government leaders who had at least a little sense of the greater good and were not entirely venal.

And now a ridiculous "New Deal" at whatever cost, which, according to Krugman at the NYTimes, is already reeking of the cronyism and corporate "I'll fill your pocket if you fill mine". Bush more of an LBJ than LBJ himself. Dumb people who didn't realize that storm surge as in flood insurance is just as if not more important than wind insurance--so now the government will have to step in and pay out. And a blank check for the hopeless welfare folks. I hope those red states see what a mess we're being led into...and finally see reality for what it is instead of having their buttons pushed in whatever suits the powers that be.

This hurricane is only the latest volley, with more to come, perhaps something massive in California, that will finally send the dollar to the fiat doom it deserves. And yesterday gold reacted as it should, irrespective of all the spin and lipstick put on the pig.

Belgian" There are many ways to communicate the value of gold" > Demosthenes#13609109/17/05; 02:24:17

Indeed, 100% correct !

This "communication" about gold's value never stopped, and never will. But it never was about gold's real "VALUE" but always about gold's "price" ...price-changes !

That is exactly the reason why not one single soul on this International forum reacts on Pan's article about IMF-gold (sales) !

SundeckWhat Really Happened at Bayou#1360929/17/05; 05:21:53

Gretchen Morgenson at the NYT delves into the inner failings of the Bayou hedge fund...a sorry tale of how people, when in a hole, frequently keep digging...usually at others' expense.

Nothing unusual about the perpetrators...they sound like typical ambitious, vain, money-grubbing types...the same kind of person who are probably running half the other hedge funds in the (un)civilised world. Makes you wonder how many other frauds are out there waiting to be discovered... Not that the doings at Bayou were "discovered" by any regulators...they virtually had to run up a flag saying: "Fraud happening here!" before they were accosted by The Law.

A sad name for a failing hedge fund in present times...a sad name indeed.

Worth a read...unless you are already feeling too jaded by the which case I suggest you dig out those old Donald Duck comics and try to cheer yourself up with memories of happier times.


GoldiloxSelf-sufficiency#1360939/17/05; 05:22:25

@ Liberty Head,

As BB and so many others have dutifully reminded us, gubmint sufficiency and self-sufficiency are mutually exclusive.

Robert Heinlein wrote:

"A human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects."

One of the most important, and least talked about, issues arising from evolution of an agrarian to a manufacturing society is the near complete loss of self-sufficiency and what it entails for the individual.

Globalism magnifies this effect, as the issue of transportation is factored into the algorithm.

It's encouraging that people who opine about space colonization recognize the need to focus and act locally for their survival. Earth crises and the failure of "social systems" demand similar skill sets.

GoldiloxSilver Bump#1360949/17/05; 05:34:49

It's interesting that no one noted the 3% bump in PoS during the New York trading session.

Have we left $7.00 behind or are they "playing with each other"?

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Sundeck (9/17/05; 07:15:47MT - msg#: 136098)

Yes I agree, "specialisation" means the activities of individuals typically involves but a small part of the spectrum of all activities that go on in a complex society...such as being a good doctor, electrician, computer analyst, factory process-worker, stock-market trader, financier, etc

And this lack of generalisation (in the individual) certainly introduces vulnerabilities to the individual who has grown up dependant (and expectant) on the wide array of specialist services offered by the system at large. Hence when the wider system fails, the specialised individual is frequently at a loss as to how to survive.

Trouble is, is that people are forced into specialisation by competitive forces in the workplace... Furthermore, highly skilled people (surgeons, barristers, financiers, etc) can command high remuneration, which encourages ever greater specialisation...frequently to the point that some people may be expert at one narrow thing, but completely stupid in most other not knowing that potatoes grow in the ground, or that milk comes from cows...let alone being able to actually grow and dig potatoes, or milk a cow by hand.

Yes...I think it is a trade-off, and one that many people are very uncomfortable with (me included), but which many others probably don't realise is happening!

It all reminds me of something that my father (a "casualty" of the Great Depression) used to say: "If we had another depression, you would be able to buy these people for two-bob a dozen!"

(Two "bob" = two shillings, or about twenty cents in today's terms...)


Goldilox (9/17/05; 07:01:06MT - msg#: 136097)
Social Darwinism?
@ Sundeck,

Not a big fan of these theories, as I consider them white-washed extensions of the master-race politick, but one other thing social "concentration" effects is centralization of the decision "who lives and who dies". Not my favorite thing to "give up" to elitists that I don't particularly trust in the first place.

One can argue the "benefits" of elitism all day, but Franklin's admonition comes to mind:

"A society that trades liberty for security will find in the end that it loses both"


Gold in hand is certainly more "individual" than credits at the bank, but the trade-offs here are glaring, as well. Probably worthy of an Essay Contest!

Goldilox (9/17/05; 06:43:20MT - msg#: 136096)
@ Sundeck:

Your final sentence befuddles me.

What specializtion has also created is a society in which we do little for ourselves, but instead "hook up" to the matrix and transact with it.

Call the doctor
Buy a car
Go to the grocer
call the mechanic
Call the cable guy
"Call" anyone . . .

etc, etc, etc . . .

Not that this reliance hasn't brought us many marvels - such as our current mode of communication.

What it has also instilled is the "necessity" of "Big Brotherism". When the power grid goes down, many are paralyzed by complete reliance upon the "system". If this "outage" condition persists, the strain becomes deadly.

Trade offs, I guess . . .

Sundeck (9/17/05; 06:20:28MT - msg#: 136095)

What startled silver?

I had just written this, when I noticed your post on silver's bump:

"After drifting along sleepily for two weeks watching gold climb to $460, silver suddenly decided it had some catching-up to do...a 2-3% jump in less than an hour..." then I decided to check off what I can-do/have-done from Heinlein's list:

"A human being should be able to change a diaper (yep), plan an invasion(yep), butcher a hog(yep), conn a ship(mmm...not really), design a building(yep), write a sonnet(yep), balance accounts(yep...although I find it a tedious business), build a wall(yep), set a bone(ugh...not so far...but I have straightened a bent nose - mine! ), comfort the dying(yep...but they still died!), take orders(yep...although somewhat reluctantly these days), give orders(yep...but few listen...probably just as well), cooperate(yep), act alone(yep...that's what I REALLY like doing more and more), solve equations(yep), analyze a new problem(yep), pitch manure(yep...done heaps!), program a computer(yep), cook a tasty meal(yep...a major strength!...although I try to keep it separate from pitching manure), fight efficiently(hate it, fighting that is...but yep), die gallantly(mmm...haven't done that yet and have no plans at present). Specialization is for insects."

...ahh, but generalisation in individuals is no guarantee for survival of either individuals or societies. Human societies appear to be developing greater and greater individual specialisation while generalised response appears to be becoming more an "emergent property" of the larger group, or society, through coordination of individual specialties.



SundeckIs gold dead...not according to Google#1361009/17/05; 07:46:22

Late night dallyings...

I just entered the words "gold" and then "dollar" into the Google search engine as separate searches; first world-wide and then "Australia only" pages. Here are the results:

World-wide: "gold"...259 million hits; "dollar"...146 million hits.

Australia-only: "gold"...8.22 million hits; "dollar"...2.29 million hits.

Simple test, sure, but gold seems to have a higher profile than the dollar...


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A world of gold at your fingertips...#1361019/17/05; 07:47:10">gold -- a global calling card
ArcticfoxWell said..#1361029/17/05; 08:36:39

Market Climbs Wall of Hubris
Rick Ackerman
Monday, Sep 19

Excerpt from the current Rick's Picks (website).
You can subscribe here.

This market creeps me out, really. It's one thing for stocks to climb a wall of worry, but quite another for them to dance a jig every time the major averages advance a foot or two on some fresh shard of appalling news from Iraq or New Orleans. Bad news is good news these days, in case you hadn't noticed, and as far as Wall Street is concerned, the disaster in New Orleans is shaping up to be the best economic news America has had since Germany's surrender in 1945. Who knows what a square foot of real estate in the French Quarter is worth now that the President has sanctioned a $200 billion reconstruction project? That kind of money could sate every grafter from Louisiana to the North Dakota, with enough left over to build a four-lane tunnel from Scranton to Biloxi.

In his speech to the nation Thursday night, President Bush thoughtfully acknowledged skeptics who have deigned to ask how we'll pay for it all. Not with new taxes, of course, since that might ruin the taste of beignets and jambalaya for tourists. After all, how much fun would Cajun food be if you knew that it required a $350 subsidy to bring your entrée to table? No, to finance the biggest construction project in the history of the world, America will simply have to tighten its belt a few notches, admonished Mr. Bush. And if that means it will cost Yosemite campers a few more bucks to pitch a tent, or that the next barrel of pork that rolls through Congress will lack provisions for a new scrimshaw museum in Anchorage, then so be it. Sacrifice demands something from each of us in this time of crisis, and so what if a few brazen entrepreneurs reap a bonanza, or Wall Street does a little premature celebrating? It's a small price to pay if all of the hubris lends further buoyancy to a stock market so obviously hell-bent on seeing the bright side of things.

R PowellGoldilox#1361039/17/05; 09:28:58

You mentioned......

"It's interesting that no one noted the 3% bump in PoS during the New York trading session."

It happened rather quickly too, didn't it? Perhaps it wasn't noted but it did not pass by unnoticed. The Comex silver market is so small (in terms of total cap. compared to other markets) than large percentage moves in either direction are easily precipitated.

More interesting from a trader's point of view, is the strength of gold considering that it was classified by most technical traders as "overbought" even before it broke above 450. Maybe current supply + demand forces have trumped the technicians this time? Now, will the price trend following funds support what market forces have started?

Or has the POG rallied in reaction to the amount of money Bush has pledged for hurricane relief? I believe Townie is correct when he says..(paraphrased)..."We'll have the inflation, please, with a side order of much higher gold prices." I don't know, but I love watching. Ophilia was a non-event for Cape Cod, MA. with just a little needed rain + no wind whatsoever.
happy weekend!

TownCrierGold may reach $500 an ounce by year's end#1361049/17/05; 11:43:44

17th September, 2005(UPI) -- The price of gold has hit a 17-year high as investors play it safe and worry about the U.S. economy.

...John Hill, an analyst with Citigroup, predicts a $500 an ounce price by the end of the year as gold prices mirror spikes in oil prices and inflation.

Demand for gold in China and India are also factors.

David Meger, an analyst with Alaron Trading, said gold is considered a safe investment, unaffected by the inflation that can hamper returns on things like stocks.

Gold prices skyrocketed from $150 an ounce to $810 in the late 1970's as inflation spiked, Middle East violence soared and oil prices went up.

^---(from url)----^

Buying gold.

Add it to your 'to do' list. Call USAGOLD-Centennial next week.


TownCrierGold gains luster amid higher inflation#1361059/17/05; 11:52:12

(Bloomberg) -- Uncertain economic times have increased gold's appeal. Gold rose in New York and London, touching a 17-year high for a second day, as investors sought protection from inflation.

A 48% jump in oil prices this year boosted fuel and raw-material costs that companies are passing along to customers. DuPont, the third-biggest chemical maker, said Sept. 12 it will raise prices on 35,000 products.

The central bank of Argentina said Sept. 14 it may boost gold reserves to protect against inflation and financial crises.

"When the prospect of significant global inflation rears its ugly head, the value of all currencies will deteriorate and gold will do very well," said Geoff Stanley, a precious metals analyst at BMO Nesbitt Burns in New York.

Gold has risen 14% in the past year, including a 9.6% rally during the past two months and this week's 2.3% gain.

Gold has become the "asset to own" since Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast, causing energy prices to surge and raising concern of inflation, said Brian Garvey, senior currency strategist for State Street.

Gold has outperformed the world's eight major currencies since the hurricane hit.

"Our current gold holdings are insurance policies" from inflation that's showing up in the price of gasoline, said Jerry Peill, a retired marketing executive who owns a bed and breakfast in Virginia.

^---(from url)----^

Sure, sure... inflation protection, demand by jewelry manufacturers, etc, etc. These are all the benign, publicly reportable reasons for gold to ascend.

The REAL reason is the deep currents by which the world's international central banks are in large part transitioning away from the dollar as a principal reserve asset and moving stealthily toward the open use of gold to level the playing field.

Shhhhhhh... but that's all just between you and me. OK?


R PowellSilver market manipulation..?????#1361069/17/05; 12:16:02

GoldiloxFSN Roundtable#1361079/17/05; 12:52:04

After enjoying the consensus of higher gold prices in the first hour of today's show, take an hour to listen in on the second hour Round Table with Jim Puplava, Jim Welsh, Frank Barbera, and Clyde Kendzierski.

The discussion begins with anecdotal observations of the FED, Katrina effects, etc., but the final focus is on how all of this could play out in the RE market. A couple of the panelists remind us that 40% of all recent job growth occurred directly in the RE market, so any slowdown in that area could find its effect magnified. Although wealth effect has been the natural perception due to rapid price gains, consumer equity percentages have actually fallen based on their huge growth in indebtedness.

Recovery hot money may bring some PM correction from our current growth curve slope, but as Puplava suggests, this looks more like the "beginning" of the wave 3 uptick in a LONG TERM PM bull! A year from now, the battle for $500 may seem as distant as the battle for $400 was in 2003.

miner49erBelgian - reactions to possibly more IMF gold sales...#1361089/17/05; 12:53:20

Yes, hardly a peep. So, what about do we think about it? My initial reaction was to the market reaction, actually... In the past, any random emission about the prospect of institutional gold sales, was met immediately by a resounding thrashing of the gold price. My inclination this time was that the deep magic wasn't working its usual spell, as there was mostly northbound activity all day, with the market moving up into the close. The chest thumping seemed more hollow, and the threats tinnier and more distant, much like the voices and sounds one hears in a restless dream fade away as one comes to consciousness.

Now, while these latest rumblings are just that at this point -- rumblings, as no sales may actually even take place -- in the past that was pretty much all it took to take the market down a few notches. Maybe the lack of interest on the forum is an expression of a general evolving market that does not see these announcements as having as much lasting impact any longer?

On a different note, but in the same way that this IMF news went with scarcely any observation on the forum, was Randy's quick entry the other day (#136037) about the dryness of physical. Now CPM is not your corner pawn shop... If they are having a hard time finding the basics, I consider that noteworthy. And, if this is more than just a blip, and sustains itself, I believe it is worth highlighting a little more prominently. One of the things that people who sit on the sidelines may not understand about what will take place in a shift to a market paradigm driven predominantly by physical settlement, is that you can't just jump in at any time when you think the water's just right. You might want to buy, but there's nothing to buy.

The market has for so long been dominated by paper inflation of gold, and we have become so accustomed to price discovery based upon this artificial inflation, as for so long enough physical liquidity was provided to those demanding it that the price as settled in these largely paper markets was deemed credible. This is deeply, deeply engrained in our psyches. Some of us postulate about the scarceness of physical, and that the gold price ought to be orders of magnitude higher than it is, but so far this has been mostly just our analytical musings.

It is a wake up call to a client that has fistfuls of dollars, and calls up her favorite gold broker to make what should be a simple order... "What are pre-33 Helvetias pricing out as, and can you get me 1000?" A bit of a pause ensues, and the broker responds, "Well, they are going for $100, but I can't get you more than 25." "Well, can you get me anything else, I'd like to put in about a $100,000 order today?" Another pause, "Well, I can get you about 40 Sovs, I have a handful of AU Saints in my own inventory, I can let you have, and there are a few odd-lot higher premium pieces that are starting to put you more into true numismatics, and that's about it..." Wow, this is a lousy feeling. So she calls around to her other less favorite dealers, and gets the same story (only their prices are probably even higher).

The point being, this is when we begin to feel as manifest what we have been talking about for a long time. Maybe this time still the trend reverses again for awhile, but maybe it doesn't. Or maybe it does, but not so much as we are used to, or if it does, the countering forces are stronger this time and any backing off of the price is bought up immediately. Who can foresee the day-to-day? This is why it is important to note the overall trends -- the direction and driving force of the river.

These are moments of market uncertainty, where things aren't behaving like we are accustomed to. Some people will keep doing the waiting game for a season -- waiting for the "inevitable" retracement, and subsequent physical reliquefication. Others will start gobbling up whatever they can, and begin to bid more to bring it out of the woodwork. The former become uneasy with their wait, the latter still wonder if they paid too much. Most of the uneasiness however is on the buyer at this time. Gold holders have most probably been positioning themselves for a long time, and are already sitting on healthy gains, and save for occasional distress selling, by and large have no reason to let go.

Whenever a transition occurs from a buyer's to a seller's market, the transition point can be especially dry, as buyers still expect really good prices, but holders that are at all interested in selling are collectively changing perceptions about selling at these low prices. In today's gold market, savvy gold holders know they have the edge, and can hold out for (substantially) higher bids. (Note another TC post #136039 on the Thai market. A couple of snips from it: "Retail gold trading is very quiet right now, as nobody is buying and selling," said Jitti Tangsithpakdi, president of the Gold Traders' Association and Chin Hua Heng Goldsmith outlet. "Due to relatively expensive gold prices, buyers are reluctant to purchase, while sellers are waiting for the prices to go up further.")

This is an inertia period, where it appears nothing is happening, but stress is building up, as bid/ask spreads must be widening. Different from a true ho-hum market of narrow spreads with low volume -- this type of setting has the potential for very high (and sudden) volume, but no one can just yet agree on what to settle at. With a transition to a seller's market, I can tell you which side (direction) I'd lay my bets on...

However, the engrained perception of gold-at-these-low-prices is still very strong, and probably will take a little while before reality starts to set in, and for prices to really pick up. At this stage, there will still be people that want to play the paper proxy games for any number of reasons, and will look to the paper settled price and be totally confounded as it not only fails to keep up with physical pricing, it also fails to satisfactorily hedge the manifesting dollar price inflation in goods and services now evident to Joe and Suzy, as well as large institutions. What's worse, it even begins to diverge, with paper gold getting cheaper, while physical gold begins to gather frightening momentum.

True, the most probable outlook is for a constant pushing and pulling over the next few years (but likely with increasing frequency, magnitude and velocity). But, just like bending a piece of metal back and forth, it's hard to tell when it just all of a sudden *snaps*.

GoldiloxGold Malleability#1361099/17/05; 13:20:28

@ miner49er,

"But, just like bending a piece of metal back and forth, it's hard to tell when it just all of a sudden *snaps*."

Of course, in your analogy, you are refering to less noble metals than IT, the most malleable of all.

Excellent market description, however!

YGMWhat Happened to Silver Friday?#1361109/17/05; 13:42:14

AIG became a huge buyer, that's what happened. They have massive Silver loans from China. Now it's payback time. Can they find enough physical Ag w/o sending Gold's little sister skyward. Not likely! I expect Ag to see $8 or better real soon. Looks good on AIG, one of the worst derivatives players in the "paper decimating physical game"...YGM
SundeckSilver#1361129/17/05; 16:07:50

@YGM, R. Powell, et al.,

You may be aware that Coeur has recently been buying up silver streams (ore and reserves) in Australia (see link). Coupled with this is the interesting evolution of silver stockpiles, production and government sales and exports in China (see this site:

I wonder whether these events/transitions are just "business as normal" or whether certain players have got wind of a big move coming down the pike?



YGMButler & Silver Comments#1361139/17/05; 18:29:22

I presume the link to his interview was not acceptable as it was removed. So here is the gist of what he had to say about AIG & the ETF w/ regards to Silver's latest move. This is from Mineweb so I'm sure it is not unacceptable. It is an important insight for Silver holders...YGM

American silver guru Ted Butler and Hunter are both bullish on the potential increased demand for silver which may be created by the filing of a Silver ETF with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. While the new ETF is awaiting approval, Hunter said "the product has the potential to significantly broaden the metal's investor base.

On his website, Butler published an interview in which he details "unusual developments" in silver warehouse stock movements. He explained that AIG is apparently buying silver from the COMEX. "The commercials are buying silver futures in unusual quantities. May it's for the ETF. maybe it's for lease returns by AIG, or maybe it's both."

Butler speculated that AIG and another big player could be engaged in "preparatory silver buying for the pending silver exchange-traded fund. The quantities and timing of this unusual commercial buying seemed to coincide with the filing of the preliminary prospectus for the Barclays' silver ETF."

Even if the silver ETF is not approved, Butler forecast that it will be bullish for silver "because it will prove how scarce real silver is."

YGMCPM Silver Survey Predicts 43 M Oz Deficit in /05#1361149/17/05; 18:33:02

Interesting to say the least.
Galearis@ Rich re Adam Hamilton's cot piece#1361159/17/05; 19:12:38


"In light of this totally normal silver futures CoT data, I don't think silver futures manipulation was the most likely cause of silver's malaise of late. I do have an alternative thesis that I explained in depth in the new September issue of our acclaimed Zeal Intelligence monthly newsletter for our subscribers. In this letter I also outlined some elite silver stocks that are likely to thrive when silver's bull market reasserts itself, probably in the coming months."

It continues to amaze that intelligent interpreters are so focused on a paper market that they can only see the forest and not the trees. It is never questioned that the Commercials regularly (like clockwork) go short far more than the world's remainling above ground supply of silver,,,,even investment banks and insurance companies,,,,entities that do not produce a single ounce,,,,will issue paper supply that the market treats as real metal. In the COMEX where the available supply to underpin this paper blizzard lies under 50 million ounces (I haven't looked lately) makes this an OBVIOUS manipulation. My brother likes to make the comment that the COMEX centred silver market is not manipulated; it IS the manipulation. So yet another paper market interpreter cannot see the irregularities because apparently he, like many other pundits, cannot take the minutes to look at physical supplies and paper sales and ask themselves whether that looks all right to them? It is as if the assumption is that since it is the mighty COMEX and the US is a country of law(s), that basic commodity law is being observed and overseen by those responsible to the public and economic good.

Sorry for the ramble/rant, but when someone with the prestige of Mr. Hamiltoncan say everything is fine with the silver market while the Commercials are in the very act of making a run on the remaining above ground visible supplies, it just gets that bile rising.

At any rate. Have a good (remaining)weekend to you and the rest of the silver posters here. Keep up the attention and the prose. This thing is going to blow.

Best regards,


Galearis@YGM re Friday#1361169/17/05; 19:25:02

Good posts, sir.

I suspect that the spike on Friday was due to the Barclay's Bank rumour that their ETF was denied. IMO.

The T.A. suggests that silver will collapse to $5.50. Then the fun really begins. Trapped, with a price absurdidy (with the USD at around 87 on the forex it would represent a new 5000 year low for the metal in purchasing power) and the only thing that the managers have been able to achieve has been to engineer the funds to go short this time. It won't get commercials out of their own holes by much but it is the only thing that is left. This thing either blows UP or it blows down. Either way represents a different flavour of trap. At $5.50 silver one might as well take delivery at this absurd price because it makes more sense than a discounted paper price,,,, with the commercials starting their run on the metal, or if it goes the other way, it will blow to $9 in a blink because the specs will pile on and blow up the market. That is the nature of the trap.

Hope it happens, either way is fine.
We are living in exciting times, yes?

Best regards,
and, of course,,,,



SundeckSilver and Buffett#1361179/17/05; 19:29:40

YGM, reading the link at your post #136114, one gets some inkling of the difficulty (impossibiity?) of correctly inferring supply and demand fundamentals for silver.

By and large, there has been widespread awareness of new-mine deficits for many years, which has kept hope alive amongst "the faithful" of a prolonged, major move in price at some time. But it has been a long wait...

I suspect that even Buffett and Munger "got it wrong" (i.e. got in rather earlier than was necessary) back in 1996-7 when they made their large purchases. It is not like Buffett to tie up large amounts of capital, in what Munger has described as a "dull ride", for so long.

On the other hand, another of Buffett's philosophies - that of being more comfortable with an investment that he is sure will provide a good return, rather than one in which he is hopeful of an outstanding return - probably still rings true for silver.

I notice silver lease rates took a leap several months ago and have remained comparitively high...I wonder whether Buffett is winding back on his willingness to lease his silver holdings??



YGMYes Silver at $5.50...Please, please, please#1361189/17/05; 19:40:32

I need alot more. $5.50 would be terriffic. I'm (to the chagrin of some) hoping Gold takes a dump for awhile longer so as to afford alot more of it also. I fear time is not on my side tho!
LimitUpWE WIN#1361199/17/05; 21:32:51

The real issue is public awareness, as it builds the Boyz lose control and their ability to manipulate the price. If they drive the price down, people buy it on the dip. If they let the price rise more people become aware of the gold bull and they buy. The Boyz have lost it. They're damned if they do and damned if they don't. We win! To the moon.
skiHamilton's COT piece....#1361209/18/05; 00:48:06

For those not yet on the same page, Hamilton, of Zeal Research recently did a piece on the silver futures market and concluded that the market was acting normally... thus no manipulation.

Since I have been reading silver literature for over 20 years, and I generally like what Hamilton says on other markets, I closely examined his piece... hoping to discover something new.

He presented a good, elementary explanation of futures market ... no question. THEN ... he attempted to use the same elementary knowledge to answer the more difficult question of silver manipulation. In my mind, it didn't fly on several fronts.

Using only one data point, perhaps Mr. Hamilton could explain why commodity silver fell 10% in a single day on 12-7-04 in the absence of any meaningful silver news. In other words, what dynamics took place between the commercials and the specs in the silver pits for such a powerful fall to take place? Is a 10% move in a single day for a world commodity ....normal market behavior????

Without going into specifics, a saying from market veteran, Jim Dines came to mind: "Amateurs know the rules of investing, professionals know the exceptions."


On a related topic, yes, the Friday rise in the POS WAS NOTED! One of the major areas that I examine is the relative level of INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY. With gold getting so much airtime, the investor psychology for gold has risen considerably in recent days. Yet, with silver quietly rising in the shadow of gold, the investor psychology remains very low..... a perfect contrarian indicator for my white-shiny friend. Also noted on Friday was the PM share activity. My un-official observation was the the silvers did twice as good as the golds. But few noticed that as well.

Belgian@Miner49er#1361219/18/05; 01:02:42

I follow your description >>> "dryness of physical gold", completely good Sir ! I is absolutely evident that once more layers of gold-people do see (feel) that physical gold manifests signs of dryness...they are intuitively driven closer to the metal. (layers of gold-people : from giants to shrimps).
But this market-fundamental is applicable for every other tangible and even paper : scarcity provokes more demand > less offer...and price effect.

But is the IMF / gold affair a goldprice matter...or more importantly a "gold-pricing" matter !? It is the latter, Miner :
>>> My first reaction to Pan's posting of the (Indian framed) article was : This is another one of these "planted" articles right on the moment that the goldprice is reflecting something (fundamentals-?).

But let's suppose (!!!) that at the next IMF meeting, the goldmatters do pop up again !? Goldmetalsales and/or gold-re-pricing (partial-!) :

- IMF Gold cannot bring any relief to any debt...ANY selling the goldmetal or "PARTIALLY" repricing it.
- The broke/broken (indebted) state of Argentina...BUYS GOLD IN RESERVE AND EVIDENCES THAT IT IS VALUEING GOLD !
- Has Euroland been doing something about its debts with the gold-sales !? No, those gold-sales haven't neutralized the debts.

There must be something else behind the IMF and its gold attention : What about the idea of having free priced goldreserves - real gold valuation - TO SEVER COMPLETELY FROM FIAT DEBTS !? So that ALL debts, included those enormous debts of the so called, rich first world countries on the $-IMS, can have separated FIAT DEBT FROM FREEGOLD WEALTH !

Naked repricing of a (any) collateral (gold) solves nothing fundamentally !!! With gold at $500/$600 (or any other fixed price), the permanent inflation of any monetary unit goes on and the purchasing power of gold always remains behind !

Some-body is "pushing" the IMF !!! Pushing and pulling on the $-gold-regime ! And this is happening in an environment where physical gold becomes scarcer and papergold contract volumes are shrinking (deflating).

There is much more going on than simple gold repricing, dearest Miner49er. Logical deductive thinking ! The "SEVERANCE" of fiat debt and gold wealth !

Belgian@ Miner49er : part II#1361229/18/05; 02:37:06

The "pushing" on IMF's gold : Let's sell or reprice the goldreserve. The "pulling" on IMF's gold : No we don't want to sell or reprice.

Seems a very banal series of insignificant events...but they aren't.

Read K.Richebacher's latest : " The FED's Wild Imagination".
Right, the $-IMS never had any problem with the $-demise outcries of the past 35 years. Keep "talking" $-alarmists...whoehaha .

Then there is the ECB and Wim : " The euro is the first (FIRST) currency that has not only " SEVERED " its link to gold, but also its link to the nation-state (EU). Keep K. Richebacher's article in mind when reading this.
Then...The euro is NOT BACKED by the durability of the metal (GOLD) or by the authority of the state (EU). And now Wim explains (yes indeed cryptically) what he means by " NOT BACKED " : Indeed, what Sir Thomas Morer said of gold 500 years ago...THAT IS WAS MADE FOR MEN AND THAT IT HAD ITS VALUE ( *** VALUE ***) BY THEM...

Miner49, Wim was saying as much as < FREEGOLD >.

K. Richebacher makes the fundamental difference between "savings" and "capital". He's exposing the fundamental flaw of the $-IMS (regime). And there is a rising central planning regime very busy pushing and pulling the $-IMS. It will all end and transform through general hyper-inflation. The IMF's days are counted.

PNBGold is inexplicably stong in numerous currencies.#1361239/18/05; 03:56:06

Anyone wonder if the Japanese 'privatisation' (read: sale) of the nations post office savings of USD 3000000000000 has anything to do with this strength?
BelgianHow come...#1361249/18/05; 04:37:47

That the recent Argentina goldreserve (London) statement ...INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL reproduced without the word "international" and all copy as "financial crisis" ?
Answers anyone.

Galearis@ ski re cot#1361259/18/05; 09:45:35

Mr. Hamilton's article displays a much more fundamental lack of understanding of how the silver futures market connects with the real world. I was vastly disappointed with what he said as he too became one amonst many who consider paper silver as representing real metal supply. In other words the market considers paper supply as real and so does Mr. Hamilton. A misunderstanding of a market does not get more fundamental than that,,,,and sadly this misunderstanding has now become a culture upon which a whole economic system can be abused.

And more or less (depending on the market product) is.

I will repeat a favourite rhody quote about this situation. "The COMEX paper futures market is not manipulated; it IS the manipulation". That goes for gold and,...

I had a more elaborate post on the subject yesterday, if you care to peruse it.

Best regards,


P.S. Mr Ted Butler has made a rare timing statement in his latest article. In his opinion this is the end of the rigging cycle. The events of COMEX deliveries would seem to point to this also.

BoilermakerRe: How come.....#1361269/18/05; 11:08:23

@ Belgian

You don't suppose that the financial media is trying to adjust/spin the story to suggest that the purpose of Argentina's gold reserve is for protection against an internal Argentinian financial crisis? (smile) The media normally loves a crisis because it sells their product. They would not normally underplay a story without some unseen agenda. I'm sure the spector of the reemergence of gold is troubling to a media that has long cultivated and been cultivated by the fiat regimes.

KnallgoldGermany#1361279/18/05; 11:11:07

It seems that neither side won a majority in the german election.It will be difficult to sort this out,not a big chance to revive this frozen-in-socialism country.The socialist partys (SPD,Green,WASG) would have the majority,no surprise.But the SPD ruled out to make a coalition with the latest SED/PDS breed WASG.

More uncertainities ahead IMHO.The DAX expected (and hoped) for a CDU/FDP governement.

Belgian@ Boilermaker#1361289/18/05; 11:51:29

Exactly, warm water man. You made me smile.
Argentina definitely regrets having lost (been plundered) all its goldreserves during its internal crisis.
They must surely know that an "international" financial crisis is a very high probability. And -international- means, "dollar" ! How come they chose the right medication after all their goldreserves had gone !?
Wonder how much gold S.Korea has been taking in again ?

Mahmoud Ahmedinejod, Iran's president, threathens with an oilshock in his speech at the UN. Condi wants the matter to be brought in the UN. The US expects less neutrality from the EU in the Iranian nuclear matters.
A new Oilshock upon an already shocking oilprice !? Is this the theory of pre-emptive action ?

@Knallgold : Will a big coalition CDU/SPD change things that much ? Don't think so. Maybe the pace of needed change will fasten.

TownCrierBoilermaker, "You don't suppose that the financial media is trying to adjust/spin the story..."#1361299/18/05; 12:21:22

Imagine that! (smile back at ya) This is what I said when I first posted the article and link on Wednesday, Sept 9th:

After providing an excerpt of the relevent first three sentences of the article, I wrote, "The remainder of the article does its level best to cast cold water on this tidbit of gold publicity, but the fact remains ... that there is a growing consortia of gold-friendly (non-Fed) central banks who are responsible for warm deepwater currents that are building into hurricane strength forces to blow gold free from its multi-decade malaise of IMF-style price/value containment."

God speed to you, gentlemen.


968Sir MK#1361309/18/05; 12:24:59

Reminder msg#: 135850, if you can find time of course.

Thanks in advance for your precious time.

MK968#1361319/18/05; 12:34:38

You are pushing against a very large boulder when you position the European system as preferrable to the American. Few believe that. Even Europe itself questions such notions, although the central bankers and politicians tend to keep their heads above the clouds on the subject.

The current election in Germany is another case in point.There is no talk of cutting the welfare state in Germany. The debate centers on whether or not the national welfare is going to be paid out of wages or an increased sales (consumption) tax. That approach may be important to certain politicians and various interest groups, but it is not foundational to returning Germany to its stature as Europe's economic engine. Schroder closed the gap with Merckel not because of his preferrable political theory, but because there isn't enough difference between the two to put Merckel further ahead in the polls. (The same reason Kerry-Gore lost) "Either or. More of the same," says the voting public. The election becomes a personality contest, just like most American elections.

The real answers have to do with cutting the government spending (and with it the size of the government), balancing the budget, giving tax incentives to the nation's entrepeneurs and privatizing the pensions system for the future, but neither party talks about that, least of all the conservative party which prefers to sell themselves simply as better managers of the same antiquated system. If the Euro money system/economic approach is preferrable, why is American productivity still on the rise and European productivity gains hovering around zero? Why has most of the innovation over the last decade come from the United States? Why is European stagflationary pressure at a par with that of the United States? Why is the United States still the center of the world's business operations?

Now realize I do not believe that the United States walks on water (far from it), but at the same time I do not believe Europe and the euro do either. In an imperfect world neither, in my view, have reached a state of economic sanctity that warrants canonization. At some point, we all hail from Missouri. I do not see the euro as a preferrable repository for my savings over the dollar. I see them as roughly the same. In one five year period the dollar will be king. In another the euro will be king. But both will erode in purchasing power over time and fail to pose a viable threat to gold.

Do you believe that the euro is so well-managed that gold ownership is unnecessary in Europe?

The Duisenberg statement to which you keep referring was made in the glow of euro introduction -- a sales pitch to the European people intended to gain their acceptance of a new currency. The reality that evolved from there -- particularly in light of the French and Dutch referenda results -- brought front and center the problems with pretending that a nation's money is not "political" -- or tied to the nation state. We all know that Europe's money is not backed by gold. No national money on earth is backed by gold. When that is accepted as pro forma, the value of the money becomes intimately attached to the process of government spending and financing -- a political undertaking. The value of the money comes back to whether or not the various states can adhere to the stability pact which has failed to stem the growing deficits. As Nixon said, "We are all Keynsians now." That makes all central bankers "politicians" whether they recognize it or not.

Duisenberg had a grand idea, but it was a Romantic notion that never really got off the ground. You can spend the whole day telling someone the frog they are looking at is not green, but a beautiful shade of red. But if the eye registers the frog as green not all the words in the world strung from here to Brussels are going to change the reality. The euro, I am sorry to say, is just another greenish frog indistinguishable from its rivals except that it sits on a rock closer to its birthplace than its rivals.

Note: By this, I am not attempting to make a point that the euro will not take reserve market share from the dollar. It will. It simply is not a preferrable holding in the long run to gold.

TownCrierThe Economic Boom: Our Second Chance!#1361329/18/05; 12:39:21§ion=0&article=70248&d=18&m=9&y=2005

18 September, 2005 -- In the early 20th century, during the British colonial rule, an Egyptian suddenly decided to establish the first national bank. He was motivated by a moving experience. An Egyptian farmer was crying in shame, anger and sorrow because the British bank tricked him. Typically, they gave him a loan, drove the cotton price down and confiscated his land for payment.

Now, he was going to work as a laborer in his ancestors’ land. Young Talat Harb Basha decided then and there to establish Misr Bank. Many laughed at him. He proved them wrong. Within a couple of decades, Misr Bank set up 28 Egyptian companies producing everything from cotton dresses to heavy industries. They went into every field from hypermarkets for local products to cinemas for local movies, to sea, air and land transportation.

In addition, the bank helped start 60 more businesses in all kinds of production and service fields and supported them.

The bank trained and maintained a competent and competitive professional Egyptian workforce. Not only did Talat Harb Basha supervise them during work hours, but he also insisted that as representatives of the bank they must behave well in their private lives. He would fire anyone who mistreated his wife or stole his neighbor's. The bank's image had to be upheld at all times.

When the British forced him out, Misr Bank was worth more than two billion Egyptian pounds. He commented: "They could fire me but they can't fire the professional generation this nation now has."

Many Arab banking pioneers were inspired by this example. In Saudi Arabia, Salem Bin Mahfouz founded the National Commercial Bank to break the "economic colonialism" in his country, as he explained to the founder of modern Saudi Arabia, King Abdul Aziz. He set up companies, built low-rent flat blocks, and supported hundreds of factories, farms and businesses. The bank played the role of a central bank before one was set up at a later stage.

...In addition to supporting businesses, those pioneers helped their people. As much as a third of their fortunes was spent on charity, with billions set aside for the poor and the underprivileged....

There must be many others working silently. But the number is too small, the help insufficient, and the philosophy rapidly changing.

Banks today are more concerned with fueling consumerism than nurturing small businesses. Most investors prefer to make easy money by building malls, importing and selling consumer goods, and providing services and entertainment. Productive businesses that provide jobs and reform the economy attract fewer investors.

We blew our first economic boom of the late ’70s, and need to dramatically change strategy, philosophy and attitude before we blow our second chance.

^----(from url)---^

International realignment around freegold valuation and reserve structure may go a long way toward everyone making the best of a "second chance".


TownCrierGold at 17-year high in London, may rise more#1361339/18/05; 15:21:36

Mumbai,September 19, 2005 -- Gold prices have touched record high in London and indicate further rise owing to strong fundamentals.

The prices broke the record of last 17 years. Spot gold in Mumbai surged Rs 120 from Rs 6,470 to Rs 6,590 (99.9) per 10 gm. Silver, however, was not that hot but perked up Rs 35 to Rs 10,770 per kg.

...The sudden spurt in domestic gold prices is mainly attributed to record volume at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). The CBOT has announced that trading volume in the exchange's 100-ounce full-sized gold futures contract exceeded 5,000 contracts for the first time on Thursday.

Volume hit a record high of 5,511 contracts, surpassing the previous peak of 4,224 set on July 27. In addition, open interest in full-sized gold futures rose to an all-time high of 6,389 contracts, surpassing the prior high of 6,115 contracts set Wednesday.

On Friday, gold futures in New York rallied afresh to close the week with a $10.30 gain, as continued inflation worry coupled with buoyant demand to push the price of the metal to fresh highs for 2005.

...The yellow metal's upward move was pushed to the 17-year high by a combination of high oil prices, increased demand from Asia and a negative outlook on the US economy after Hurricane Katrina. The prospect of economic slowdown and signs of rising inflation drove US investors to the safety of gold last week.

...According to Barclays Capital, gold has surprised friend and foe on every given occasion. For the current situation, the odds seem very much in favour of a new high in short term. All factors are supporting the upward movement but active traders have also been given a few cautionary remarks to avoid any difficult situations.

^---(from url)---^

Are you and active paper trader? Choose instead to be an active tangible wealth accumulator.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Especially assembled for those who are taking their first step...#1361349/18/05; 15:52:09">gold ownership starter kit
GoldiloxGold Plundering#1361359/18/05; 17:54:15

@ BM, et al,

"Argentina definitely regrets having lost (been plundered) all its goldreserves during its internal crisis."

I wonder how many other WB-IMF lakeys will regret the same move - covering the dollar by selling their gold reserves.

It will look more and more foolish as time marches on.

GoldiloxAsian DX action#1361369/18/05; 18:03:45

What if the dollar dealers threw a party and nobody came?
R PowellSorry guys // sorry Ted Butler#1361379/18/05; 18:05:39

But I'll have to agree with Hamilton on the matter of silver market manipulation. We all know the basic premise...that contracts bought/sold equaling more silver than exists in Comex warehouses is a miscarriage (manipulation) of the market.

If a corn farmer wants to sell his corn while it is still growing in the fields....not stored in Chicago Board of Trade grain he manipulating the corn market? This is no requirement that silver must be stored in Comex. There is no requirement that one must hold physical silver to sell such on the long as the sale is offset BEFORE that contract expires. The whole purpose of speculation is to transfer risk from those who do not or can not carry it to those who will assume it in return for a monetary reward. This started centuries ago and is a basic, necessary element in a capitalistic economy. Having more of a commodity bought/sold than will actually change hands in the physical market is not uncommon at all.

Do not despair, the age old balance of supply and demand will influence price when the time arrives. That will come only when the physical market does not have enough silver to meet demand or when the paper trading market sentiment fears that this may occur. There is no longer enough $4.00/ounce silver, nor $5.00/ounce silver but apparently there is enough $6.80-7.20/ounce silver for now. The market is never wrong but the only thing it is telling us is total investor sentiment! That's the only thing it is always right about. How "right" is the total of all investors sentiment??

Without startling market news, many markets fluxuate in price on technical "readings" or trend following or ???. Lord knows there is usually very little new news regarding silver. The price is often just "trading" but it will respond directly to the laws of supply/demand over time. The yearly supply/demand deficit will eventually deplete the existing surplus which was built up over 5,000 years.

As for selling more than is stored in Comex, then there is (must be) also more bought than is stored in Comex. When the market forces call for it, then price rationing will determine who gets it and who settles for a huge cash profit instead. All markets operate in this way.

Every year, insurance companies sell more residential fire insurance policies than there are fires. They sell more than exist (occur) every year. Do you also call this manipulation?

I'm still holding physical + paper silver contracts and I'm still playing from the long side, but I'll have to agree with Hamilton on this issue. Fwiw, (probably very little), I don't think the POS will remain range bound much longer. ;> All this is, as always, just one poor man's opinion, please regard it as such.

SmeagolCorn-fed manipulation#1361389/18/05; 19:25:05

"If a corn farmer wants to sell his corn while it is still growing in the fields....not stored in Chicago Board of Trade grain he manipulating the corn market?"

If he only WANTS to, no... but if he DOES sell corn he does not have IN HAND - after all, what guarantees that the corn will make it to harvest?, then, YESS!

...sss... no one should be able to sell anything unless they can actually deliver it.


mikalBase metals + Silver + Gold#1361399/18/05; 19:39:11

When Will the Price of Silver Explode
- The Optimist - 09/18/05
Brief essay with a different approach- shows how silver could be ready to launch as several base metals are already experiencing declining demand. This pretty much leaves copper to follow down, which the author expects soon due to slowing industrial demand. (The logic behind this is that the resulting reduced base metal mining will mean less [byproduct]silver flow to the market.)
Acknowledges paper silver and base metals, even postulates good POS potential.
But confined to narrow thesis(space limitations?) does overlook:
*inflation precipitated by energy + commodity inputs
*food + health costs + many others
*global currency devaluations + taxes
*real + potential investment demand
*historic gold/oil ratio
*new industrial + strategic + clandestine military uses
*hedge fund + derivative "neutron bombs"
*natural + man-made rogue wave or disaster
*magnetic pull of gold bull market + Kondratieff cycle.

mikalGold wealth asset#1361409/18/05; 20:51:33

Gold and silver are compatible and in some ways inseperable.
As tangible wealth, both metals have a prominent cultural, social and economic significance to large segments of the globe's population.
But today and especially in the west, silver is currently dominated by a virtual force majeur paper market using threat of unfair margin and rule changes, indiscriminate, toothless market regulation, and out of proportion position limits and leverage, all antagonistic to fair, legal and free market forces of supply and demand.
Also, silver has been relegated largely to industrial metal status. For these reasons and for the interests of the Silver User's Association, the world's weapons manufacturers(not mutually exclusive) and Defense Agencies(where silver is a strategic commodity & priority), silver's availability and price will be controlled, using the methods extant above, and through:
*further tapping of private and Asian stockpiles
*base metal mining (Ag byproduct recovery)
*more lopsided derivative futures & options market settlements and raids
*silver miner hedging/leasing/forward selling
*gov't control and/or seizure of mineral or silver rich lands for "strategic" national defense/emergency
*higher capital gains taxes on miners
*restrictive land use regulations expanded
*possible use of Martial Law r State of Emergency and/or Executive Orders and Presidential Decision Directives with legally authorized claims on resources, transportation/distribution, and other price-impacting factors.
Gold has also the advantage of having been quietly accumulated and swapped out of public vaults during an "accumulation phase" (a period of disregard and investment neglect)by wealthy insiders, discreet investors, complicit or compliant governments, traditional holders, and more.
These parties will partake of a generational gold bull market, more resembling and better depicted as a paradigm shift and a new international monetary system(IMS) IMHO.
There will be major global currency realignment and a redefinition that could involve more mergers in the new IMS. Supported and justified by frequent, perhaps daily, mark-to market valuations of gold reserves, it will be similar to historic gold(certificate) cover ratios and the system used by the ECB and euro.
The stronger the POG, the more a central bank's gold reserves sustain and enhance it's currency, firming it's exchange rate and cross-border investment flows.
(Fiat currency and debt become less inseperable and more disparate, less burdensome and more balanced.)
Economies and markets large and small depend on stable and strong currencies and trade, and most importantly on a reasonable safe haven gold reserve, wealth asset which serves not just as "hard cash during hard times" for people, but as a buffer against further currency inflation, stagflation, economic imbalances and disincentives etc.

CaradocRe: a farmer selling his corn#1361419/18/05; 20:52:34

Big difference here is that the farmer is selling this year's crop for delivery some month after the crop ripens. Same with orange juice, etc. True, a drought can reduce the corn crop just as a freeze can reduce the OJ harvest. In short, the commodities being bought sre corn ripening in the field or oranges that are still green; i.e., things that already exist and are scheduled for the wholesale/retail cycle this year.

Not like paper precious metal that's sold way beyond what can be relied on to make to market.


GoldiloxDX ratchets up another click!#1361429/18/05; 22:52:47

Click, click, click - does anyone care?

PoG suggests maybe not!

Why does it appear more like a twisted rubber band?

What happens when it decides to SNAP?

BelgianStrange "stories"...#1361439/19/05; 05:36:23

The N.Korean nuclear problem seems out of the way !?

OPEC is ready to put 2 mil. barrils of crude on offer for any taker as to prove that it is not a crude shortage that is responsible for high prices ($-POO immediately went up 1,6%)

NOT ONE SINGLE WORD on the moving goldprices (financial media) = Not a strange story of course...apparently !

Anyone who wishes to reflect on this ?

KnallgoldPOG#1361449/19/05; 05:48:01

No story on the rising Goldprices?There will be one saying because of the german election turmoil the euro got weaker (against $ and Gold).

Maybe theres a window of a POG surge until the 2nd year of WAG commences.Then,there will be alot of Goldstories pop up again-usually a time to sell (for the traders)

My mother has told me that her bank had to order the 50 Vrenelies she intended to buy at that day (~2 weeks ago).Not sure if they had these amounts per default on stock earlier.

mikal@Knallgold#1361459/19/05; 06:38:30

*The WAG (Washington Agreement) sales limits have been exceeded at least twice in the past, so we will see what the final numbers show when theyre released. Phillipines, EU and/or other gold must be in play because POG would be much higher.
*The vrenellies are a beautiful coin so I'm not surprised by all the anecdotes I'm hearing. In fact, several dealers I monitor were out of them several weeks ago and have not restocked. This is why their premiums have risen so high.
*We see how your euro has been performing and wonder if the ECB or other European banks have been buying dollars to protect exports and/or dollar holdings. Easy come, easy go! Not so with gold.

masBelgian, question#1361469/19/05; 06:47:52

If you were a US investor in gold stock, (reads usd stock market), wouldn't you think that this gold rise is the real thing? But looking at it from foreign countries, this gold rise wouldn't mean anything, cause the rise is just now catching up with the currency depreciation. From a US point of view everything is okay, but from a outsiders view nothing is moving, tredding water so to speak. But when the dollar fall's, (which will happen soon), then it gets worse. Euro 378+/-. Euro/$ 1.21/22+/-. So free gold as you speak will be completely outside of these silly or regulated governemental measurements? When will the exchange rate break the camels back or better, this won't happen at all because the free gold is outside of this form of measurment?
Free Gold =?

Chris PowellDubai, the 'city of gold,' notes GATA's message again#1361479/19/05; 07:09:19

Latest GATA dispatch.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

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Cavan ManFriday article on IMF gold sales #1361489/19/05; 07:12:08

If GATA is right (big picture) as I believe they are. Then, the gold in the IMF treasury is either encumbered in some manner, significantly depleted or gone (period). If GATA is right and the IMF gold inventory is instead and in fact secure; then, there will be no IMF sales into the market. The sovereign shareholders et al couldn't afford to let it go--too much risk in the "big, current global monetary/economic picture" (which they see clearly).

Since the preponderance of evidence and history seem to weight in GATA's favor regarding AU, I must (and do) believe they are in fact correct. Therefore, as an investor, I do not think it likely any IMF gold will be sold thus negatively impacting the gold market. I sleep soundly.

masGermany's election. My lack of understanding?#1361499/19/05; 07:17:39

Belgian, are these facts correct? From the Privateer. If they are then whats all the fuss about? West = US/UK and EU = ? (not the west as UK/US see it?). I would wish that the rest of the world views EU as not exactly the west, because it surely doesn't act like the US/UK.

Germany has overtaken America to become the world's biggest single exporter. Germany is exporting
tools, equipment and full scale capital plant and machinery that powers the rising economies of Asia and
Eastern Europe. Germany's trade surplus is now greater than that of China, Japan and India combined. It
reached the staggering sum of 16.8 Billion Euros in June alone. The profits made by German companies
from one end of the trade spectrum to the other, from consumer goods to capital plants, are running at
over 33 per cent of national income. That's the highest in 40 years! Europe's second quarter earnings are
up 25 percent as against 11 percent in the USA. All this is reflected in the respective stock markets.
Europe's are up by 12.8 percent compared to the US Standard and Poor's Index which is only up 0.7
percent. Germany is now back in the historical position it was in 1904 when its global exports (of like
kind) exceeded those of Great Britain. It has taken Germany since 1948 to get there, starting from a field
of physical ruin. Now, with a population of about 90 million, Germany exports more than the USA and
more than Japan and China and India combined. It is an awesome economic achievement, greatly
hampered by a welfare state and a luxuriant, dense, regulatory machinery. One can only wonder what
might happen over the years ahead after the national election on September 18. What might German
industry be able to do if even a portion of the anchor of an over-regulated welfare state was removed?

masCavan man#1361509/19/05; 07:34:16

IMF gold is equal to 3,700 tons? Correct? Controlled by who? US/UK? Or EU? Believe most belongs to EU, some 3000+ tons? (They can't say anything of course). But I stand corrected. If this added to the EU holdings of 13,500+ ton's. Well you understand who controls what here, yes?
US holdings at 8,000 tons, but not believable. UK, hell they sold all theirs to get us down to the lows of 250's... Gordon Brown comes to mind here....

mikal@Belgium#1361519/19/05; 07:44:17

Re: "Any comments"
Key West orders hurricane evacuations - Sep 19, 2005 - CNN
Tropical Storm Rita also poses a threat to Gulf of Mexico, Louisiana & Texas. Possibly main reason for oil spike today. And ME tensions remain and Katrina repairs are moving slow.

Galearis@ Chris Powell re manipulated silver market and others#1361529/19/05; 08:21:40

Yes, I do think that what you describe and what Hamilton describes is manipulation. It is what my brother sums up with the statement about futures markets are not manipulated, they ARE the manipulation. What a system, and I do mean system, that this US based concept has infiltrated free, physical markets and divorced itself from the reality of supply. It matters not that this "sytem" has been tried (if not true) for many decades, it is still a mechanism for skewing value with paper. In the American hegemony it has served a monetary despotism quite well.

Also: how can one decry the practice of unlimited shorting of paper contracts by non-producing investment entities, a very visible and obvious breaking of commodity law, but call this practice not a manipulation?

This, after all is one of the points that Hamilton failed to examine in his article.

So I respectfully disagree.

Best regards,


P.S. Silver and gold are getting frisky. Silver is almost back to penetrating the top of its triangle. So it seems it that 'they' seem to have chosen (smile) the POS rise instead of the collapse. (smile)

968Central Bank of Argentina – a changed view on gold#1361539/19/05; 08:43:15

LONDON ( -- At the precious and base metals seminar held in London on September 14th and organised by research group GFMS, Juan Basco of the Central Bank of Argentina gave an interesting insight into the thinking of central bankers and how Argentina has developed an increasingly flexible foreign exchange policy over recent years.

Having, some years ago, decided that gold was not worth holding in its portfolio and having reduced its holdings to less than one per cent of total (of which more below) it has now changed its philosophy and was a purchaser of gold during 2004 as it reshaped its portfolio. The Bank now holds 3% of its foreign exchange reserves in gold and may consider taking more in future, but is not currently committed to doing so. Responding to a question from the floor Mr. Basco stated that this may well also be the case with other Latin American central banks – which opens up an interesting vista for the future and clearly this area will be one to watch.

Mr. Basco described how in the period 1991 – 2001 the Argentine government was on a currency board, which meant that the peso had to be kept to a one-to-one parity with the US dollar. In 2002 a floating rate system was introduced and this initially led to a dual system and the banking system came under severe pressure; in 2003 the currency was stabilised and since then the central bank has become a net purchaser of foreign exchange in the international market.

The essential difference between the 1990s, during which Argentina ran down its gold reserves and now, when it has increased them again, is a direct result of the degree to which the Bank is allowed to (or has to) manage its foreign exchange reserves. In the 1990s, the whole of Argentina's monetary base had to be backed by foreign exchange reserves, which meant that there was a passive monetary policy with no currency risk. The central bank was, at that point, forbidden by law from financing government debt.

The attitude to gold accordingly came under review. Gold had originally been seen as an important reserve asset for the central bank as it was used to protect the portfolio against the effects of inflation or financial crisis. Then, however, it lost its role a means of payment, holding costs were regarded as high and because it was deemed to be illiquid it was not available when intervention was required. Other assets, meanwhile, were offering higher rates of return. Because, also the central bank had to follow a passive policy with respect to the portfolio, any large drop in the gold price affected the currency's dollar parity and left part of the monetary base unprotected.

The bank therefore put in place a zero-cost put/call options strategy to hedge the gold holdings (i.e., it identified the minimum gold price necessary to protect the monetary base and bought puts to protect that price, financed by the sale of calls). At this stage the holdings comprised roughly four million ounces in good delivery bars and a further 400,000 ounces in non-good delivery coins that had been minted during the 19th century. In 1996 and 1997 the options were exercised and the proceeds went into US bonds and foreign currency instruments from G-7 countries.

Working through the banking crisis that followed the changes in policy involved three stages. In the first half of 2002, heavy intervention was necessary and the peso dropped from 2.80 to the dollar to 3.80 to the dollar and the volatility in the exchange rate was high, resulting in a drain on the country's foreign exchange reserves. In the second phase in the second half of the year the peso was stabilised at 3.50 to the dollar and volatility fell while intervention became more focused on the wholesale rate and temporary restrictions on capital flows were released. Since 2003 the peso rate against the dollar has appreciated and the central bank is, as outlined at the outset, a net buyer of foreign exchange in the international market. The country's international debt restructuring was completed in mid-2005, covering more than 80% of its external debt and is now enjoying small capital inflows (Mr. Basco pointed out also that Argentina has never defaulted on any of its debts to international agencies).

Herein lies the change in attitude towards gold. Because the bank is now active in the market rather than passive, it is adopting a totally different portfolio management philosophy. The liquidity in the gold market has been proven ample for the bank's requirements. With $25 billion reserve assets (likely to be $27 billion by the end of this year and compared with nine billion in 2002), the government needs to control the volatility of its portfolio and has introduced gold as part of the diversification necessary to achieve that aim. The bank takes the view that gold is recovering its role as an asset that protects a portfolio from crisis and also that, following the recent decoupling from the euro, its role as portfolio diversifier has been further enhanced. When asked from the floor why the bank had decided that gold was a liquid asset, his response was that they had proved that it is – they sold a lot and bought a lot without any disruption to the market.

Part of the decision to take gold into the portfolio rests on the fact that the bank holds 30% of its reserves in non-dollar assets and it therefore wants to use gold to reduce volatility. It will not go above that of non-dollar assets percentage because of its need for dollars for international trade.

The latest figures from the IMF show that during 2004 Argentina acquired 54.9 tonnes of gold (equivalent to five days’ global fabrication and bar hoarding demand). It is not a lone voice in the wilderness, but it does make a change for headlines to concern a central bank acquisition as opposed to constant talk of official sector selling. On which note, a reminder that the second year of the Central Bank Gold agreement goes into force on September 27 and we should expect heavier sales in the fourth quarter of this year than we had in the third, by quite some margin.
Thoughts anyone ?

KnallgoldMore on the Vrenelies...#13615409/19/05; 10:06:26

On the recent World Money Fair coin show in Feb. I saw a 100Fr. Vreneli,that was the last one I will ever see I guess,they're just too rare and what I heard are being kept tightly in the bourgeoisie.Too bad I didn't have enough funds then,though you don't get that much Gold for the money.They have the same motive as the (IMHO) even more beatiful 10Fr pieces but are much bigger.Really nice coin...
GoldiloxMorning Comix from Reuters#13615509/19/05; 10:17:55


EW YORK, Sept 19 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures rocketed to a fresh 17-year and contract high Monday morning, fueled by speculative buying and options-related interest amid concerns over inflation and U.S. economic growth, dealers said.

By 11:50 a.m. EDT, December delivery gold ((GCZ5)) on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division stood at $471.10 an ounce, moving between $462 and $472.40, which surpassed the prior life-of-contract high of $471 an ounce.

The session peak was the loftiest for futures since January 1988, when prices reached nearly $490, and it was gold's third-straight 17-year high on a daily basis since it began its dramatic rally last Thursday.

The market continued to shrug off a firmer dollar and extend its dramatic break-out from last week when December gold futures rose more than 2.3 percent.

Strong metal demand and a lack of selling by European central banks, which have reached the annual limit of a five-year pact to cap sales, also have spawned the rally, market sources said.

968@ MK#13615609/19/05; 10:24:46

I never said that the euro was so well managed that gold ownership would be unnecessary, on the contrary; even in a pure freegold system the unit of account would constantly depreciate against physical gold.
Let me conclude this discussion by saying that it appears very, very strange to me that after having seen 50 years of dollar (mis)management, the euro architects would have learned nothing from this, that they have built just another "dollar" that will be the king every five years. What an enormous effort for nothing...

melda laureLike a hot knife through butter, eh Smeagol#13615709/19/05; 10:32:19{8091CA35-020A-469F-8827-0B97B1169554}&symb=XOM&sid=161455&siteid=bigcharts&tool=1&dist=bigcharts

Fish stories, Sir Belgian. Nobody wants to hear about the one that got away ("let me tell you about this 100 ton goldfish I once caught...")

Yikes! Dec. crimex AU up $8+, XOM trading higher than during the Katrina spike.

And this:
"For the first time in more than a year, Wall Street economists truly have no idea what Federal Reserve policy-makers will decide to do at their meeting next Tuesday."

I would put it differently. What exactly CAN the FED do to help at this point? Sometimes I read the marketwatch bloviation. Usually it is useless gushy bubblevision drivel. Do I detect a hint of stomach-in-your-shoes fear?

I sure know what I can do...(though I should point out that it wont help Wall Street... klink klink!!!)

Belgian@Mas-Re#13615809/19/05; 11:07:13

Allow me to repeat that I totally disagree with MK's views about Euroland's future, EMU and euro-gold. I continue to disagree with GATA's thesis of massive naked CB-goldsales (delivering of the metal) and I disagree on the peak-oil theories !

I have been argumenting my personal views for years now. None of these arguments (and questions) seemed of any importance to the goldmatters.

Yes mas, the privateer has a lot of good points (objective arguments) wich I do indeed subscribe. But this particular views are burried under the all embracing idea of $-omnipotence. AA socialism versus Euro socialism is the hart of the matter ! As is the fundamental difference between € and $ versus gold !!!

I can repeat the same mantra (Euro-view) over and over again without receiving any reaction.

About the oilprice and its pricing : When the media + the public are 100% convinced that there is no crude shortage (remember SPR thing) and nobody comes up with a fitting explanation for rising oilprices...what does one have to conclude !? If the refinery capacities are insufficient...that only affects oil distillates and NOT the crude oilprice. If the US and now OPEC says (trumpets) that there is enough crude come that the crude oilprice rises more than $3 in a matter of minutes. How can one go on trumpeting peak oil when Irak has plenty of oilreserves under its battlegrounds ?

Same story for the goldsales...WHERE IS THE CB GOLD ? Is Duisenberg an euro dreamer and a villan goldseller at the same time ?

The omnipotent dollar is NOT going to succeed in forcing its AA $-IMS any further on the coalition that is building around Euroland. I hate to repeat this so firmly without relisting all the arguments over and over again.

At present, the goldobservers will come up again with the explanation of the goldprice decoupling from the currencies ! How convenient for hiding the real changes that are happening.

Gold (its revaluation and the establisment of freegold) is totally meaningless when gold remains embedded in the $-IMS wich is a gigantic debt-system. Gold needs an appropiate numeraire (unit of account) as to correctly express its real value.

This transitional process happens in a confusing way for most observers for the commonly known (but not recognized)reasons.

Today the €/$ exchange rate is 1,2148. Is this a weakened dollar due to the German election results ??? No it isn't ! Then why must euro weakness be trumpeted by the media ?

The media are diverting the public's attention from what is really going on and hammers on those same mantras over and over again.

Recently, B.Bernanke stated bluntly that the euro will never make any chance to become an alternative for the dollar ! No argumentation of course and not one single word about gold and its pricing concept (difference between € - $). Day after day, the AA media try to force Euroland into a so called AA capitalism and monetary expansionist socialism, away from a social Euroland that can collect taxes, redistribute them as to balance the general prosperity with wage adaptation. Euroland's neutrality lies in its efforts to maintain "stability"...WITHOUT HELICOPTERS !!! Debt growth in Euroland has STOPPED and REVERSED !!! NO DEFICITS !!! These are facts and not dreams.

If the dollar actions "export" unstability...Euroland will not be able to remain neutral and Duisenberg's dream will become reality, overnight >>> euro freegold !

Note that the IR differential between € and $ is still a big 1% !!! Think what effects this has on both (competing)currencies ! etc...etc...

Sorry for the preaching, mas...but your questions have been answered already many times in the past.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A risk-free request, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.#13615909/19/05; 11:34:34">Get a head start on the gold market!
GoldiloxNaked Shorts#13616009/19/05; 12:28:24


Please excuse my naivete, but in your post, you said:

"I continue to disagree with GATA's thesis of massive naked CB-goldsales (delivering of the metal)"

Doesn't the term "naked" already imply that there is no metal backing up the sales - that they are essentially 100% paper settlements?

Since not a gram of CB sales has ever reached the "open" market, don't many here agree that they are purely paper transfers and their only effect on PoG was propaganda value?

After all, I'm still waiting for Townie to announce the first smidgen of "CB gold for sale at CPM", but I am of course not holding my breath.

By the way, CNBC is scrambling for "explanations" as to why Gold continues its rise this morning.


GoldiloxDX Ratchet#13616109/19/05; 12:31:00

Humpty Dumpty climbing the wall?
Goldilox"Lovely Rita, Meter Maid"#13616209/19/05; 12:43:28

According to CNBC, Rita may be an univited guest at the FOMC meeting tomorrow.

At the moment:

LT Sweet is up $4.45 to $67.45
NatGas is up $1.54 to $12.68
Nymex Gasoline is up $ 0.25 to $2.035

According to current "projections", Rita's path is straight at the shelf and NatGas production facilities in the Eastern Gulf.

"Metered" prices should shoot through the roof.

Combine Gold and Fuel and the CRB is up 3.8% today.

TownCrier968, Argentina#13616309/19/05; 12:52:24

It is nice that Argentina steps forward with this cautionary tale so that other central bankers can learn a better paradigm the easy way -- that is, without having to repeat Argentina's mistakes for themselves. Argentina had been one of the $-system's star posterchild models for a long while, and this tale goes to show how quickly that orientation can fall apart.

Obviously, the other central bankers don't need to hear this tale aired in public to absorb the message. My interpretation of its telling around the London campfire is to simply ratchet-up the evidence and pressure that the consortia/coalition of "New Paradigmers" have growing strength in their overall gold advocacy. Effectively saying that new members are roundly welcomed to join in with confidence at any time.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1361649/19/05; 13:37:34">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Monday Market Excerpts

(from DowJones) -- The New York precious metals sector raced higher Monday amid a mix of speculative buying, inflationary worries and strong physical demand, trade sources said.

The benchmark December gold contract charged to a life-of-contract high of $472.40 an ounce then settled at $470.40, up $7.10 on the day.

Paul McLeod, vice president for precious metals at Commerzbank, said gold has a strong fundamental picture and is investor-driven.

"There is good physical support with the Indian buying season," McLeod said adding that gold is rallying across every currency and has broken its correlation with the dollar.

"There was a theme in place with the U.S. dollar driving gold but beyond that gold developed as an alternative asset class for portfolio holdings," McLeod said.

Other factors behind gold's strong rally is producer de-hedging, geo-political concerns and the fear of inflation, sources said. Analysts at MKS Finance said gold has rallied over the past few weeks from buying following the Hurricane Katrina induced spike in energy prices.

"While we expect the metal to succumb to profit taking and long liquidation at some point in the next few weeks, we also strongly believe that gold is building a very solid base and expect any dip to be bought as investor's interest is increasing day by day," said MKS Finance.

Belgian@Goldilox#1361659/19/05; 14:20:34

The "so called" CB goldsales of this decade are (imo) the most important facts on the whole fundamental change/transition of the existing $-gold system. With "naked" I meant : The CB gold has not gone into jewelry and walking around the globe.

The CB-gold (the bulk of it) has been transformed into contracts hiding in ECB/BIS. "Hiding", because you can't trace them. Behind those contracts, there is CB gold. There are 3 possibilities how this CB gold contracts can evolve :
1/ More contracts/roll overs/new contracts and no metal delivery (contract settlement).
2/ Metal delivery and less contracts.
3/ No metal deliveries (or only selective ones) and fiat settlements.

WHAT A FANTASTIC SET OF TOOLS !!! Tools with a purpose. Tools that serve a strategy and a plan.

And this plan is NOT a secret one ! It is the EMU-system that wants to compete with the $-IMS. AND GOLD IS HEAVELY INVOLVED IN THIS COMPETITION !!! Wheter we like this or not is not going to matter much. But this is not the question on this goldphiles forum. Wheter EMU will be succesfull is no question either. We simply want to know what is happening to gold, its price and its pricing !

Ignoring EMU's actions on gold is a stupidity. Remember the date 1999 and review what happened since.

For your information : Belgian gold(sales)commitments >
- 1988 : Belgian Treasury : 1,303 tonnes of gold
- 1989 : 1,176 tonnes = minus 127 tonnes
- 1992 : 973 = 202
- 1995 : 799 = 175
- 1996 : 596 = 203
- 1998 : 297 = 299
- 1999 : 258 27 tonnes to ECB and 11 tonnes Luxemburg
- 2000-2004 : 257 > 248 = 1 + 9.3 tonnes own mint
- 2005 : 218 = 30
Present : 218 tonnes remaining in Belgian Treasury.

I challenge anyone to find out what happened with the gold of these goldsales. Are Belgians stupid dwarfs as to throw 1,000 tonnes of gold away that has been kept in the vaults for so many decades...or are Belgians (and other states)(ECB/BIS) a little smarter than that !?

Do you really think that Euroland/EMU is that stupid to throw away their goldreserves because they are 100% sure EMU and EU is a 100% surety to be succesfull !!!??? No Sir !
Those "so called" gold-sales (commitments) started long before the euro currency was circulating in specy. Long before EMU took off. During the period of these goldsales a lot of uncertainty and caution reigned amongst the architects.

That's WHY by logic deduction of the facts one can only conclude that the Euro goldreserve actions are a tool to serve a purpose : FREEGOLD !
And this (the use of this tool) will evolve with the succes / failure of EU convergence.

There were no naked goldsales ! As there were never naked gold-exchanges ! All gold mobilizations served a much higher purpose than the visible paper-price of gold always suggested. This time there is a fundamental difference that will affect gold's price dramatically : Freegold and Gold Revaluation. Dollar-paper-gold to euro-physical-gold.
As the era of extremely cheap oil has ended and oil must be VALUED as the main fundamental (foundation) of the globe's entire economical prosperity. This is not a dream or a temporary blip or an above the clouds story...this is real and we better get used to it. Right Mister Forbes ?

BelgianThe daily gold market report : reflextion#1361669/19/05; 14:57:12

Last (conclusive) sentence : " That realization is bad for the dollar and good for gold " :

Since the goldprice today is back where it was 17 years ago (!!!)...does that mean the the present goldprice is estimating/indicating that today's dollar-health is as good (bad) as it was 17 years ago !?

17 years ago, oil was happy with 20 dollars for one barril. Today oil wants 3 times as much and yet the USDX, 17 years ago, was exactly the same as today ! What happened to oil, the dollar and gold ? No wonder that Forbes wants the oilprice back in line ($35 or even $20) with the rest of the pack ($-POG).
Oh and there's one other little 1988 there was no euro (dollar competitor) and no euro goldreserves marked to market ! Could there be any relationship between that zeuro currency and oil !?

Goldilox"Naked" sales#1361679/19/05; 15:13:49

@ Belgian,

Thanks for the reply. I was equating it more with "naked shorting", but sans delivery, it amounts to about the same thing.

In my "imagined" scenario, the dual identity of the ruling elite, public and private personae, suggests to me a similar dual role in the "transactions" as well. Public gold moves covertly into private hands, with the all the accompanying secrecy.

Not unlike the non-official role of the British royal family, which owns businesses and properties far beyond the official holdings of "the crown".

While we witness the not-so-subtle bankrupting of failing socialist systems, what we don't get to see is the tangible wealth of those systems being transferred to private hands by the manipulators, so they can "protect" the assets during political transitions.

I could be wrong, but all the transaction secrecy and talk of failing "currency systems" point strongly at the possibility.

Governments come and go, but "royalty" trancends borders, or it has for the last 500 years or more.

Even the Royalty-phobic US of A has seated the Presidential candiate with the most European royal blood ties in every single election (don't remember the exact reference, but it's a well-known geneology source).

TownCrierOld coin makes $460/oz gold seem a very good bargain#1361689/19/05; 15:32:14

HEADLINE: Rare Gold Rush-Era Coin Fetches $253,000

(AP) Sep 19 -- A rare Gold Rush-era coin owned by a descendant of Chinese immigrants who worked in the California gold fields sold for $253,000 at a Beverly Hills auction.

The coin has been confirmed by numismatists as one of only 12 "Quarter Eagles" known to exist from the 246 that were made at the San Francisco Mint in 1854.

The Quarter Eagle is about the size of a dime and was made from Gold Rush ore at the San Francisco Mint just months after it opened. It contains one-eighth ounce of California gold.

...The coin, which was expected to sell for at least $150,000, opened at $140,000 and quickly jumped in $5,000 and $10,000 increments before going to an anonymous collector for the final price.

^---(from url)---^

Of note is there is NO associated paperization of its particular market to artificially inflate the apparent supply of this coin. Therefore, it truly "is what it is", and the high price appropriately (plus/minus) reflects the value in the utility of its ownwership desirability which is inherent largely upon the physical scarcity. As with the Mona Lisa, and many other examples where there is no valuation corruption being caused by a paperized monetization of the given market.


Belgian@Goldilox#1361699/19/05; 16:17:23

Beyond any doubt, a lot of investment bullion (wealth) shifted back into the fortunate's private hands. But CB-gold is not the kind of gold deliverer that serves private wealth owners. They have plenty of other channels that provide them "discreetly" with the precious !

It are not those private gold-holders, giants or lilliputans like me, who are going to change the $-goldregime ! On the contrary...but that's another story.
Gold regime change initiatives comes from the euro hardliner factions. The well informed fortunes evidently know exactly where things (political balances) stand and to where they evolve. Cfr. Rothshields pull out of papergold trade (arbitrage between gold and oil !!!).

It is only the general public that has temporary been separated from the precious wealth holding. That same general public will be called back into the gold arena by politics at the appropiate moment.

Look at how monetary/financial policies have guided the public into the stock markets...real estate.

The bulk of market-activity is initiated - induced ! That's why the following general public is called "the sheeple"...going to or escaping from, the shavers.

I have previously been describing what happens with the goldmine sector (market). But this is not the terrain of the politics. Goldmetal is !

GoldiloxStill no easy answers for CBOT 10-year note expiry#1361709/19/05; 16:50:57


CHICAGO, Sept 19 (Reuters) - Potential for fireworks is still brewing in Chicago Board of Trade 10-year Treasury futures as Wednesday's expiry nears, dealers say.

Open interest in the September contract fell steadily last week but remains high relative to deliverable supplies and to any previous expiration, including the June expiry that ended with charges of a supply squeeze.

"The open interest in the 10-year futures contract continues to deliver excitement," strategists at Citigoup Global Markets said in a research note.

As of Friday, open interest in Sept was 252,813 contracts, equivalent to $25.2 billion in cash Treasuries, down by some 140,000 contracts last week.

At the same point in the June expiry cycle, open positions were 156,983 contracts.

Total supplies of the cheapest to deliver note, Treasuries expiring in August 2012, are $19.6 billion, about 20 percent smaller than the supplies of the CTD note during the June expiration.

The available float of the August 2012 may be as low as $9 billion and certainly seems no more than $10 billion to $12 billion, said Bernd Wuebben, director of relative value strategy at BNP Paribas.

"There is still a good chance we may not close out enough positions to match the float that's out there," Wuebben said. "Open interest will have to continue to fall at a brisk rate to avoid a scramble for the August 2012s."

After trading ends on Wednesday, firms will have until Sept. 30 to make delivery on short positions not closed out before expiration.

If not enough of the CTD notes are available, holders of short positions in futures would be forced to deliver notes expiring in November 2012 -- a process known as making uneconomic deliveries.

The Sept/Dec 10-year note spread has fallen to about 23 basis points from 36 basis points in late August, suggesting the market sees a lower chance of a squeeze.

Still, potential for uneconomic deliveries is still about 50 percent, down from about 90 percent before the U.S. Treasury on Sept. 14 called for entities holding large supplies of the CTD note to reveal their positions.

BNP Paribas has recommended that customers take up swap spread positions that would position them synthetically in case uneconomic deliveries take place against the Sept contract.

Continued problems with expirations have been caused in part by increased use of futures and much larger open interest that needs to be liquidated or rolled forward during each quarterly delivery cycle.

Low supplies of CTD cash notes are magnified by the flat Treasury yield curve, which typically makes the note with the shortest duration the cheapest to deliver and a prime candidate for hoarding.

The CBOT has changed its rules for Treasury futures, imposing position limits for the final 10 days of trading in an expiring contract. That change comes into effect with the December contract.

"It will be interesting to see if the CBOT feels that its position limit rules will be pervasive enough to limit this kind of trading dynamic," Citigroup strategists said.

Ultimately, some feel the exchange might consider switching terms for Treasury futures from a physically deliverable to a cash-settled contract.


Managed volatility ahead for the Ten?

Goldilox"Private Hands"#1361719/19/05; 17:24:28

@ Belgian,

I think you miss my point. When I say "private" hands, I certainly do not mean a few fortunate rich folks hoarding community wealth, but rather, large controlling hands using private and public accounts opaquely to foster secrecy in power transfers.

Rothschilds, et al, might have moved out of the paper gold market, but they certainly aren't out of the "king-making" market, something they have had a hand in for many generations.

If the "alleged gold sales" do not really happen as you suggest, then perhaps my "they're only paper cover-ups" theory makes a lot more sense than commonly attributed.

CoBra(too)"Not for Gold alone"#1361729/19/05; 18:18:05

...Was the title of a great exploration geologist - who has been engaged within the UN to further 3rd. world country's - in the end exploitation.

I have to confess that either I may be too dumbed down already, or even worse have never been in a position to understand the concept of perpetual growth.

How can one achieve perpetual growth on the limited sphere called globe, we all live on and effectively "of". We seem to double the inhabitants of this sphere every other generation; We also use more and more of our sphere's resources, arable land, forests, water, air and every other commodity - not the least fossil fuel, which took hundreds of millions of years to form. Even if you don't believe in the concept of peak oil, it is still effecting every walk of your life - and generously I would concede that we used about 50% of all known reserves in the short span of 150 years.

It has been the lubricant for industrialization in that time span. It also was the lubricant for monetary and economic systems based on nothing but growth - and promises. If the economy stalled in major ways, like in the 1930's, we eventually, thanks to J.M. Keynes, governments and central bankers found the cure - "print" more fiat paper, now called monetary aggregates, short MZM, and we will overcome. Mr. Bubbles Magoo has become the master magician of this art, even if in his former career he was suspected to see through the scheme and has articulated it the way it would still be fitting today.

Unfortunately, the old anchor of a gold based monetary regime was completely abandoned by modern economists, monetarists and totally misguided globalists - at least it would have put some semblance of controlled expansion in place. A fact which will certainly haunt future generations, as it dawns upon them that their forebears have used up a lot more of the sphere's resources than will be allotted to mankind ever again.

Well, now we experience an explosive growth of activity
in ever more frenzied financial "markets" in a globalized "sphere"; No-one knows for how long these Potemkim mirages may keep opr being kept alive. And Potemkin Villages, they are - only considering the vast amounts of derivate (notional) "values", which may become an eupherism for its non existent counterparties to term i8t non-valeurs! OK, since last week these guys will be strictly 'self-regulating'- wow, what an achievement.

The effects are becoming more obscene by the day. Ethics, religion, family, the cohesion for society has been evaporated and the last vestiges of civilization are crumbling - see the looting and anarchy in N.O. - as a typical example of systemic stress.

... And yes, Gold is an answer to tide you over very difficult times to come - and it will tide over your wealth - if and when you can cope with a situation, some of us in Europe have experienced a couple of times after 2 WW's. Your friendly neighborhood and your own plot to grow food may do even more ...

Got gold - seems Belgium is looking to figure where it went - and some seeds - both unencumbered and not hybrid by the PTB? cb2

SmeagolFrom six-dollar slips to six-dollar leaps#13617309/19/05; 19:33:42

sss... while the Houndses frolic, it looks like the Precious is being ratcheted to the NEXT planned trading range in the sschedule...


Chris PowellThe world is catching on to the gold price suppression scheme#13617409/19/05; 19:34:17

Latest GATA dispatch.

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SmeagolWe're confused...#13617509/19/05; 19:48:02

Ssir Belgian (from 136158): "Debt growth in Euroland has STOPPED and REVERSED !!! NO DEFICITS !!! These are facts and not dreams."

Reeeeeaallly, precious?

Ssnip from article:

"Major European powers have been groping for a way out of a standoff with Germany, seeking to soften the proposed EU warning about Berlin's rising budget deficit without undermining a key fiscal discipline pact."

"Germany's deficit rose to 2.6 percent of GDP last year, well above the target of 1.5 percent. The Commission forecasts it will rise to 2.7 percent this year and possibly higher if growth falters. Ironically, it was Germany that insisted on the Stability Pact to prevent the single currency being undermined by loose fiscal policy by some member states."



GoldiloxNEWS WITH VIEWS#13617609/19/05; 20:52:20


Picking through the rubble of last week's news headlines, there was one particular newsy piece that, while I've seen it before, it struck me in a particularly odd manner this past week.

The piece in question was a reference drawn by a much celebrated and well known pundit who repeatedly attempts to label "gold bugs," or as I prefer – advocates of sound money, as haters of government.

While this well known writer shall remain nameless, so as not to personalize, I would like everyone to stop for just one moment and consider this: is the pursuit of sound money; or for that matter the advocacy of a gold standard – synonymous with hating government? Speaking for myself, I would like to be on the record that I am an advocate of sound money and I am also proud of being identified as a "gold bug."

As to the assertion that gold bugs hate government – on a personal note, I would like to offer this: I am wary of absolute power since history has shown its propensity to corrupt and I tend to differentiate between unbridled and responsible government.

In that vein, I am of the belief that perhaps the most essential and solemn task that responsible government is charged with - is the carrying out of the minting and preservation of sound money.

The Forgotten Golden Rules

Empirically, we are living in a period where all vestiges of sound money have been abandoned – globally. History has shown and is a constant reminder that such actions always produce, shall we say, less than desirable outcomes – like social upheaval or war. For the record, I'm no big fan of the former or the latter either!

I also find it noteworthy that the same pundit referenced above, while making disparaging remarks about gold bugs out of one side of his mouth, likes to revel in self adulation regarding his gold trading prowess – all the while being ‘loathsome’ of the resulting profits [derived from a rising price of gold] out of the other side of his mouth. Now that's a perplexing yet profitable conundrum, no?

What strikes me as being odder yet, said profits would never have been possible without irresponsible profligacy [reckless money and or debt creation] on the part of government or monetary authorities. Does this mean that said pundit favors irresponsible spend thrift government or does it mean he only ascribes to such governance when financial benefits accrue to himself personally?

You see, what bothers me more than anything is when someone intuitively knows that something is wrong, but either applauds or encourages the action so as to personally benefit from it – all the while wrapping themselves in the flag or attempting to lay claim to the moral high ground.


"Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder" has many times of late been degraded to "morality is in the eyes of the beholder", as noted by an earlier poster. While we decry the "lawlessnes" and looting in New Orleans, we seem to expect starving refugees to behave with "decorum". The most reasonable person I saw in the immediate aftermath of the New Orleans tragedy was a shopkeeper who said, "Forget the property. We can rebuild it. The people in the city right now need help!" currencies, and...the dollar#13617709/19/05; 21:17:39

Ref: Belgian's #136166

Looking at 40 years of POG, POO, USDX and housing, we see many interesting features... not the least being the containment of gold and oil and the other currencies by the dollar.

After Volker got the world back under control in the early '80s we see POO wobbling along between about $15 and $25 per barrel, gold wobbling along between about $300 and $450 per ounce and the USDX wobbling along betwen about 85 and 100. However, it may be surprising to many that housing, since 1980, has increased in price by about seven (7) times...globally!

In other words, all the currencies (and gold as well!) that have gone into defining the USDX have all been devalueing against housing by about the same rate and by the same cumulative magnitude over that time. They are all "dollar derivatives", as Belgian might say...

However recently, since about 2003, oil has started to blow its own trumpet, and more recently gold too. Oil broke decisively above the $25 per barrel at the end of 2003 and has continued upwards in all currencies as well as against gold. Gold appears to be at the point of breaking out of its currency-bound constraints as well; piercing the long-term upper-bound against the Euro, and zooming above the $450 bound against the dollar. Perhaps gold too is starting to blow its own trumpet??

The situation now is that the dollar is still greatly overvalued against the currencies of its trading partners, which means that the USDX should fall well below the 80 Maginot Line, but there appears to be great reluctance for this to occur. Oil and gold are not waiting for the situation to work itself out...they are voting with their feet, so it seems.

It will be interesting to see whether the next round of CB sales under the Gold Agreement II has any effect on bringing down the gold price, or whether the cat is truly out of the bag...

Additional point: Several estimates of the cost of "rehabilitating" the southen states of the USA after Katrina put costs at about the same level as what has so far been spent on the Iraq campaign...a few hundred billion dollars. That's interesting, because Iraq's population of about 25 million would appear to be many times greater than the population of a few milion who have been affected by Katrina. What then is likely to be the real cost in rehabilitating Iraq??

Is this all going to be "monetised" by the US alone? Or is the rest of the world going to help "monetise" it as seems to have been happening for the last 20 years...keeping that USDX above 80!


DruidStrange....#13617809/19/05; 21:34:27

Druid: So, the dollar is currently winning the perception game against the Euro making the Euro look weak against the dollar while the Euro price of gold is setting new highs.

The dollar price of gold is making the dollar look weak against gold. Are we in the initial stages where the Euro price of gold begins to force a higher dollar price of gold thereby providing very different market signals indeed.

Two very different sets of financial circumstances and outcomes being transmitted via higher gold prices in Euros and dollars.

GoldendomeRita, Oil, Gold, and interest rates.#13617909/19/05; 22:03:03

No one seems to need asking twice to get out of the way of this next tropical storm, Rita; it hasn't even made it to the Florida Keys yet, and already, they're buttoning up the remaining oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico and clearing the people to the mainland. The projected path of this storm, if it develops into a strong hurricane, looks to be ominous. Oil prices jumped up a huge amount today, on the likelihood of more gulf oil disruptions. Check out the tracking maps linked here for Rita.

I continue hearing a very narrow concensus opinion, that the Fed. will raise interest rates again tomorrow. I have my doubts. And I think the run-up in Gold prices says that the market also has it's doubts.

24karatDo goldbugs hate government ?#13618009/19/05; 22:52:36

@ Goldi-

At times I wonder how some folks come to such absurd conclusions.

Goldbugs = government haters

Iraq war protesters = traitors/ against our troops

There are countless other examples. Us goldbugs just examine the cards being dealt and try to calculate the best way to preserve our wealth.

There MAY be a few of us that are wringing their hands waiting for the next disaster to undo our financial system and eventually our government. My guess is that they are an extremely small minority. I could be completely wrong on this. Perhaps our knowledgable forum members could prove otherwise. Just like the rest of us, I am prepared to discover higher truth.

SundeckYuan revaluation to be kept around 3% p. a.#13618109/19/05; 22:57:02

There appears to be a persistent rumour building that the PBOC intends to limit the revaluation of the yuan to about 3% p. a. versus the dollar, largely to make it unprofitable for currency speculators...

This is not the kind of news that Mr Snow necessarily wanted to hear...

Looks like the twin deficits are going to grow and grow and grow for many years...


GoldiloxGolden Trumpet#13618209/19/05; 23:04:13

@ Sundeck,

Your quote:

"However recently, since about 2003, oil has started to blow its own trumpet, and more recently gold too. Oil broke decisively above the $25 per barrel at the end of 2003 and has continued upwards in all currencies as well as against gold. Gold appears to be at the point of breaking out of its currency-bound constraints as well; piercing the long-term upper-bound against the Euro, and zooming above the $450 bound against the dollar. Perhaps gold too is starting to blow its own trumpet?"

, , , certainly seems to be the case, at least for now, as the currency markets move "sideways" with each other.

Has gold broken free from the FOREX "line dance?"

The last time the dollar was at 88, we saw gold languishing in the $420's.

As we approach the oft' touted $480 figure, it will be, as BB reminds us, interesting times.

Chris PowellReply to Dennis Gartman about gold bugs' supposed hate for government#13618309/19/05; 23:07:55

A GATA dispatch from last Thursday.
GoldiloxFOREX Line Dance#13618409/19/05; 23:08:09

Speaking of "Line Dances", this resembles a "Texas Two-Step" punctuated with a "Bunny Hop" on the up-beat!
GoldiloxGartman Reply#13618509/19/05; 23:15:10

Nice, Chris -

By the way, let us know if GATA runs into any of those rare issue "Libertarian Party" or "Anarchist Club" coins. These numismatic "gems" would fetch an outragious premium.



mikal@Goldendome#13618609/19/05; 23:50:04

Re: You doubt that the Fed will rise rates and say: "I think the runup in gold prices says the market also has it's doubts."
I don't think there is much but a slight cause/effect on POG. But that the Fed may or may not raise rates are valid positions and bear indirectly on POG through other markets. I think Fed will raise, but the markets, chiefly equities and bonds will react to the decision AND the wording of the accompanying policy statement for a day or two and so possibly tickling the baby gold bull.
As you know, politicians are predisposed towards paying lip service to voter concerns rather than fulfilling campaign promises. And as a result of this odd marraige of Fed/BIS financial dynasties with political/industrialist consortia, a tiny haiku offspring screaming bloody murder has penetrated the solemn sound barriers of MK's evening forum:

Fed pay lip service
On inflation, jobs, growth
'Til baby bull bite
(Haiku in 5-7-5 standard style may be expanded to other formats, but here's hoping you still get the brief message. Thank you!)

SundeckGrowth#13618709/20/05; 00:17:22

Ref: CoBra(too)'s #136172

"Growth" may occur for a long, long time yet, but both the "time-rate of growth" and the "composition of growth" may vary.

Certainly, the rapid rate of growth over the last few hundred years (since the British Industrial Revolution), and the increasing rate of growth (growth acceleration), has been lubricated by fossil fuels...most recently, oil and gas; but that cannot go on, because there are limits to the store-house of fossil fuels and, additionally, there are consequences to their rampant use (greenhouse warming, pollution, societal ill-health, etc).

However, growth (in its present composition) may still continue into the future; although without major progress in energy diversification (controlled nuclear fusion - a mini-Sun on Earth; breakthroughs in geothermal; or something similar) and appropriate alterations to existing and future infrastructure development, it is difficult to see the world continueing on in the same social paradigms with the same general composition in its economies.

What do I mean by "the present composition of growth"?

Well, one can have an "enrichment" of a society in ways that do not necessarily consume more energy per capita or more natural resources (or in which the population is necessarily increasing), but which, nonetheless results in growth in per capita GDP, and therefore GDP increase overall. How does this occur? Well, there are many paths...and transitioning to some of those paths may not be entirely painless.

For example, a community may give up increasing its per capita ownership and useage of cars for recreation and, instead, seek entertainment on the internet or in the proliferation of local community arts and crafts. They may also grow their own food locally. Here, a shift away from cars and transport is made up for by diversification (enrichment) at a local level. The "value" placed on these local goods and services may increase as well (organic, free-range produce, for example) so that the loss in productivity in the automobile/transport industry is made up in the localised economies with a net overall increase in monetary terms.

This, in effect, is similar to what happens during a recession in which the mix of activities that make up the economy evolve to mitigate certain factors or to take advantage of certain changes. Some of these changes may be less energy-intensive and/or less resource intensive, but still provide a net increase in per capita GDP. The "list of desireables" within the society may change and the economy responds to that change. The perception of "wealth" may also change as well.

Another general concept involves societies making better use of the enormous growth in knowledge. The present industrial/marketing paradigm has channelled this into increased consumption of widgets and services, but knowledge may be used by societies in more fulfilling and less wasteful ways.

It is true, however, that energy is the makes everything work and a plentiful energy source enable both reckless and wise use of our knowledge capital. We are probably near the end of reckless development based on fossil fuels. There is a lot of fat in the system, but we are going to need to make some painful changes to reach the new nirvana...

Note on Hubbert's Peak: There appears to be a misconception around that Hubbert's Peak means that half the oil has been used. Unless I am mistaken, this is incorrect. Hubbert's Peak means that the rate of extraction of oil has peaked (e.g. 85 million barrels of oil equivalent per day...if we are near the peak now). There may still be much more than half the oil left in the ground...but without some really fantastic revolution in how it is found and won, then there will be a prolonged decline in the daily production level.



YGMChina's Silver Demand (Inventory a Spent Force)#13619009/20/05; 01:03:17

Silver price to climb as demand soars
By Danielle Rossingh (Bloomberg News)
Updated: 2005-09-20 08:51

Silver prices will rise in the next five years as demand in China expands faster than domestic supply, fuelling imports for use in jewellery, electronics and photography, said GFMS Ltd, a precious metals-research group.

Chinese silver demand will jump to about 2,870 metric tons by 2010, from 1,624 tons last year, according to Tim Spencer, a senior analyst with the London-based group. The increase would make China the third biggest consumer of the metal behind the US and Japan, based on figures for 2004, when it ranked No 5.

"By 2010, we expect China to be using more silver than it mines, which will be positive for silver prices," Spencer said at a presentation in London on September 14. He didn't give a specific price forecast.

China's US$1.65 trillion economy, which expanded 9.5 per cent in the second quarter, is already the world's biggest consumer of commodities such as steel, copper, tin and iron ore. Prices for most of those commodities have reached record levels in recent months as producers fail to keep pace with demand.

Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, said in May it's "quite possible" prices this year will exceed a 16-year high of US$8.50 an ounce, which was reached in April 2004.

GFMS's forecast contrasts with predictions at banks such as JPMorgan Chase & Co and UBS AG.

The metal will average US$6.7 an ounce next year, compared with US$7.1 this year, JPMorgan said in July. UBS AG said in June that silver would average US$5.75 an ounce in 2006.

Both banks said rising US interest rates would curb investor demand for silver and other dollar-denominated commodities as a hedge against weakness in the US currency.

China's 1.3 billion consumers are likely to buy more jewellery as they get richer, said GFMS's Spencer, who is based in Perth, Australia. With silver costing about 63 times less than gold and 127 times less than platinum, younger buyers could well favour the precious metal, he said.

"We expect silver jewellery to gain in popularity, as young people in China decide they want to wear contemporary jewellery but can't afford gold," Spencer said.

The precious metal is also used in consumer products such as electronics and in photographic film, sales of which will expand as China's wealth increases, Spencer said.

Global demand for silver was 26,023 tons last year, with 44 per cent of that coming from industrial applications and the rest from photography and jewellery, GFMS said.

China's stockpiles of the metal have already been hit hard, thereby increasing the likelihood it will have to source its supplies from abroad. Silver inventory in China may be as low as 2,000 tons, or about 7 per cent of global annual supply from mines and scrap, GFMS estimates.

China exported about 10,000 tons of silver between 1998 and 2004, Spencer said.

Stockpiles have now reached a point "where they will not impact on global silver supplies in the future as they did during the past few years," he said. The inventory is "now a spent force."

China mined 3,275 tons of silver last year, or about 12 per cent of global supply.

Chinese mine production and scrap supply will rise only "moderately" in the next several years, Spencer said.

(China Daily 09/20/2005 page11)

BelgianRe :#13619109/20/05; 01:22:43

@ Smeagol :You have reason to be confused on "no deficits".
But should we always include the word "relative" into all conclusions and become so terribly balanced in our conclusions that the communication becomes greenspeak ?
The present EU-deficit situation has enormously imporoved (fundamentally) relative to pré EMU. And in the context of €-$ competition, the € deficits are minuscule relative to the $ ones. Or shall we compare € debt growth versus $ debt growth ? Remember the hungry lion story and the two runners (€-$).
We are putting the strengths and weaknesses in their totality of both competing systems/concepts of € and $ into the balance in function of gold's future...change ...transition. That's the general idea, Smeagol.

@Sundeck : What if the oilpricers deliberately wish to provoke general price-inflation, or the threats of price inflation ? Resulting in a global political hurricane.
With the final purpose to have oil priced not as a cheap commodity anymore but priced for its "monetary value".

Monetary value for oil as to be globally recognized as the foundation of global wealth and prosperity. And monetary value of their (oil-owners) choice...€ block instead of $ block.

Is the present (specific) rise in goldprice a sign that concessions are being made to the oil-pricers ? Vienna-OPEC- POO + 6% (the real hurricane)!!!
Concessions under the form of a decline in papergold contracts and a shift to more physical gold-trade (pricing).
Concessions to the oil-owners FROM THE DOLLAR to keep oil priced, for the time being, in dollar...AND with a dollar above the USDX 80 !!!

It is NOT a coincidence that the (cheap) oilpricing (of the remaining oilreserves) fundamentally changed with the introduction of the euro and the decline in CB euro-gold (contract) commitments.

Always bear in mind that the dollar reserve system has b