USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

Electronic reproduction sourced from
PNBHere it comes.#1308034/1/05; 02:38:02

.. the inflation spike as China is forced to break the peg by a riot of world bankers.

Hedge your interest rate risk NOW.

PNBThe bell tolls for open pit miners#1308044/1/05; 02:43:15

Marginal miners are in trouble if this eventuates.
NedWhy?#1308054/1/05; 04:06:29,2106,3234755a12,00.html

Wolfowitz approved as new World Bank chief
01 April 2005

WASHINGTON: The World Bank has unanimously confirmed Paul Wolfowitz as its president despite quiet misgivings by some members over the deputy defence secretary's role as the Bush administration's architect of the Iraq war.

SundeckIMF Sales - Gordon Brown and the "hidden" and growing shortage of gold#1308064/1/05; 05:32:48

What are the signs telling us? Here ae a few of the major signs:

1. Remember the detailed analysis done by Veneroso et al. several years ago pointing to a short position of up to 16,000 tonnes that arose from the decade of gold leasing, falling gold price and "strong" dollar in the '90s.

2. Remember Greenspan's statement that "central banks stand ready to lease gold....should the price rise"... explicit acknowledgement of a growing short position, but without indictation of its magnitude.

3. Remember the Embry report agreeing, on balance, with GATA's main findings about the manipulation/management of the gold price.

4. Remember that South Africa's production is falling and will continue to fall as their miners become uncompetitive with the super-strong rand. World gold production is going to fall for the next few years.

5. Remember that Britain (Gordon Brown) has already sold half of its gold at a time when prices were low, but looked like rising rapidly. How much "real bullion" as opposed to "paper promises" does Britain have left in its vaults?

6. Remember that WAGII signatories now appear reluctant to sell into their 500 tonne per year quota...surprise, surprise. Why would they want to, given the outlook for POG?

7. Remember that Britain is not a signatory to the WAGII. Why not? Could it be that they do not have all that much gold left to sell anyway? So why bother to sign an agreement to limit their further sales of bullion that they don't have?

8. Now look at the attempts to mobilise the worlds greatest store of privately-held gold; in India. For the good of the Indians of course (and their may be some truth in that)? Or for the good of the shorts? Perhaps a "win-win" arrangement?

9. Now look at an attempt (by Gordon Brown) to mobilise the IMF gold "for the good of the poor, indebted nations". There are not too many other pools of gold to be had, production is falling, demand is rising and that says something about the future direction of the POG.

10. If the short position is as large as Veneroso et al. have signalled, then some major players (banks and governments) are exposed...and their exposure is becoming more worrisome...there can be no other conclusion.

Additional thoughts/comments:

11. Could it be that the generally falling POG over the two decades from 1980 lead the treasuries and central banks of major countries (UK, Australia, Canada, US) to believe that gold was truly a dying concept? Truly a "barbarous relic" from a bygone age, no longer of monetary significance or a useful store of wealth, but now relegated to just a pretty thing from which jewellery could be fashioned; and that its price would eventually take on some lowely "commodity" state not too different from the price of silver?? Was it a belief such as this that allowed such a large short position to build?

12. Why is the SA rand becoming so strong versus the $US? Could it be that the South African government, at last freed from its colonial harnass, is choosing to strengthen the rand until its gold miners go broke? At that time, will the mines be nationalised and the rand allowed to weaken so that the mines again become economically viable and under the control of the indigeneous peoples of South Africa? Is this a more pleasant way of reallocating the wealth of the nation back to its peoples? (Compare with the situation in Zimbabwe, where redress has happened by violent land-grabs.)

Any other thoughts/comments out there?


OvSSundack.#1308074/1/05; 06:57:41

You are absolutely right on
each of the 12 points. So
why does it make me a bit
The way you order, present
and summarize all your points,
you would be the man to
straighten out my paper-mess.
Nice going. Keep it up. OvS

Clink!@Ned #1308084/1/05; 07:03:13

Take your pick :-

1/ Too much of a political liability where he was ?

2/ Better there than as a replacement for Greenspan ?

3/ Rising to attain his level of incompetence ?

4/ He has neither banking nor development experience, so thus is "uniquely qualified" ?

5/ To annoy the Europeans - start a war on poverty ?

6/ To please the Europeans - at least he's not in a position to start another war ?

7/ Sell the Bank's gold reserves ? (Oh, that's the IMF ....)

8/ Heard Michael Moore didn't include him in his next film, and knew it was time to move on ? (Side note: Top Ten Gross Moments in the Movies - Number 7 : Lick that Comb !)

9/ He's looking for Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction (aka derivatives) ?

10/ The weather in DC really sucks ?

One thing I think we can be pretty sure about - it wasn't the reason he gave, which was that he really wanted to help alleviate the effects of poverty in the world. Call me cynical, but I bet none of us here can hold a candle to the cynicism of an (ex) Under-Secretary.

Happy Friday,

GoldiloxMining Guatemala: Government, church leaders consider moratorium on gold pit#1308094/1/05; 07:55:01


SAN MARCOS, Guatemala — Undaunted by death threats against him, Bishop Álvaro Ramazzini Imeri led thousands of Guatemalans in a recent protest against gold mining in this Central American country. Ramazzini, other Catholic Church leaders, and clergy marched through the streets of San Marcos, in northwestern Guatemala, chanting, "Mining is bread for today and hunger for tomorrow," and, "Our country's minerals are for the Guatemalans, not for the multinationals."

The protestors’ skull-and-crossbones signs targeted Guatemala's first modern gold and silver mine, owned by Canadian company Glamis Gold Ltd., and backed by the WORLD BANK. Construction on the combined open pit and underground mine is already underway in the arid, poverty-stricken Guatemalan highlands, some 30 miles from San Marcos.

Opposition to Glamis’ Marlin gold mine, led by environmentalists, locals, and the Catholic Church, has spurred a national debate about mining. Some say mining could bring much-needed jobs, cash, and infrastructure to rural areas, and criticize mining foes as anti-development.

The government appears to be taking opponents’ concerns seriously. It has accepted the church's demand for a moratorium on new mining permits, and asked church leaders to participate on a joint commission to discuss changes to mining policies.


It looks like Wolfie is just in time to head off another "insurrection". As Guatemala is one of the training hot spots for the "contractors" in his previous position, his experience may be more relevant than we supposed. One of his goals may be to keep the world's mines working and the precious flowing into the WB.

GoldiloxESF overtime#1308104/1/05; 07:57:57

Wow, someone's working hard to paddle against the flow of the DX waterfall.
OvSAnother Freefall.#1308114/1/05; 08:30:56

Margined Traders, beware.
GoldiloxJobs Report#1308124/1/05; 08:45:41


There are parts of this report that make no sense to a simple fellow like me. For instance, 170,000 people were just "removed" from being in the labor force. That helped pump the numbers. Regardless, as John Crudele over at the NY Post pointed out recently, the numbers don't add up if you call the states. Which leaves us asking why does anyone care, except for the fact that unemployment is still a serious problem . . .


George Ure's commentary on the jobs report. I like the fact that he digs below the headlines. Hedonic adjustments abound!

GoldiloxAlternate take on Unemployment#1308134/1/05; 08:56:32

Although one has to read through a rather strong political message, the numbers at this site bear examination. This author calculates "real" unemployment closer to 23%, a number mirroring the 1930's.
GoldiloxAuto Mfg supply numbers#1308144/1/05; 09:00:23

CNBC just reported that US auto makers are approaching 90 days of available supply, a number they would prefer to see in the 60 day range. High inventories can really hurt big-ticket manufacturers, as the amount of capital tied up can be stifling for companies already in pension cash flow trouble.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Offer ends at sell-out or else by noon today.#1308154/1/05; 09:02:08

Uruguay gold coin"Day Trader Special" -- FINAL HOURS!
Catch the sun rising while available... (see right)

Uruguay 5 Peso -- 0.2501 oz gold content

Offered 'Til Friday Noon Mountain Time
$117.04 at $428 spot Thursday afternoon.
Price will change Friday.
Check or wire payment only.
Krause catalogue states: 100,000 minted. Only 14,415 released.

500 coins offered. All dated 1930.
First come, first served. Quantity discounts available.
Free shipping 30+ coins.

GoldiloxCrude and Gasoline#1308164/1/05; 09:12:14

One more post and I'll relax awhile.

Unleaded Gasoline 1.71 - up about $0.16 this week

Crude $56 - up $1.60 this morning

Rising ISM report reflects this, as it totally flip-flopped the positive SM reaction to the hedonic jobs report.

What a morning -

Gold down - dollar up
Bonds down
Stocks down
Silver down hard
Oil and Gasoline taking off

It looks like another opportunity to gather the shiney stuff!

Federal_ReservesSame old, same old#1308194/1/05; 10:35:39

Lots of commodity and asset inflation, while common workers are taking it on the chin with real wages falling.
TownCrierStocks Fall as Oil Climbs Over $56#1308204/1/05; 10:38:14;jsessionid=FURCSEF25UCBOCRBAEKSFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=8063955

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Friday after a manufacturing report indicating rising prices fanned inflation fears and a rally in crude oil prices stirred worry about the effect of high energy costs on corporations and consumers.

^-----(from url)-----^

Headline says it all.

Choose gold. Accept the occasional discounts as gifts along the way.


geRMB joins ECB rate list#1308214/1/05; 10:51:01

GoldiloxWhy Wolfowitz?#1308224/1/05; 11:57:41


Several readers have written to ask "What's the big deal about getting Wolfowitz to head up the World Bank?"

Simple answer: The rest of the world is seeing the failing of the US dollar, all bloated with debt is close at hand. Now, if the World Bank were controlled, they could be "convinced" from the top to buy U.S. debt and recirculate it into loans to developing countries. Soaks up tons and tons of bad paper long enough for neocons to claim genius....sure it might work!


Not a bad explanation for Wolfie's "promotion", although I was very interested by the Guatemala article from Kitco News - I forgot to post the URL but it can be found on their news archive as story #17 for today.

GoldiloxKarachi Stock Exchange's stellar run comes to an end#1308234/1/05; 12:01:13


AS they say, all good things come to an end. But nobody ever expects it to come crashing down.

However, that is exactly what has happened to Karachi Stock Exchange's 100-share index in Pakistan which, until the recent tailspin, was arguably the world's best performing market over the past few years.

The steep rise in the index gave way in the middle of March, sending the index plunging 25% in eight straight sessions from its recent all-time high.

Reports said wild speculation and unrealistic valuations triggered the selling, which was made worse by investors frantically trying to cover speculative positions taken on futures contracts.

The index has recovered somewhat from a low on March 26 and closed at 8,085 on March 30. Notwithstanding the recent steep fall, the Karachi market is still up 30% year-to-date.


Buuble, bubble, toil and trouble!

2023Karachi Stock Exchange plunge#1308244/1/05; 12:22:40

Their exchange needs to enlist the ESF and Plunge Protection Team. The ESF can fix everything - don't they know that?

Unfortunately the same could/will happen in the US as the ESF is overwhelmed with chaos in all markets at once.
Glad I've got some of the shiny metals. Hopefully Karachi 'investors' do too. Have a great weekend all.

TownCrierSold out#1308254/1/05; 14:43:22

Word came in from Jonathan that the gold Uruguays sold out like gangbusters. Some deals are too good to pass up, and congrats go to all who acted swiftly enough to ensure their claim to the goods.

Until something else comes along worthy of a special announcement, don't be shy about browsing through the standard selections, or calling to inquire about daily in-office specials.


SundeckUS dollar price action???#1308264/1/05; 15:22:16

Look at that rapid (and large) price action in the USDX from about 0820AM through 1020AM on Fri.

Instantaneous drop of about half a percent, followed by a recovery, a pause and then a rapid rise of about half a percent.

What was going on simultaneously to contribute to this price action? Did the fall coincide with the release of the "disappointing" jobs data? Why the recovery and then the overshoot to the upside? How many dollars changed hands and for what? Is this kind of dynamic price action just "ho-hum" in the life of currency traders? Or are there deeper issues involved? The ESF?

Is there any logic in this sort of price action? Or are we just looking at patterns arising from chance?

What is the detailed association with price action in gold and silver? Relative volumes? Detailed temporal associations?

George Soros...are you listening? Help me out with an explaination! TIA


GoldiloxToday's Action#1308274/1/05; 15:33:58

@ Sundeck.

If you listen to the pundits, you'll hear them say that the jobs number was not as disappoining as thought, given the drop in measured unemployment. That sparked the dollar's drop.

That was then followed by an ISm report that suggested more inflation. IF we believe the pundits all other action was initiated by the Bond market's reaction to those events.

Then CNBC suggested that the Pope's poor condition was helping fuel the depression of the day on Wall St.

So much for markets that project 6 months into the future. What a laugh.

Two buck tacked onto Lt Sweet and $1.71 fpr gasoline can't be helping the "inflation is under control" crowd.

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1308284/1/05; 15:42:34">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Friday market excerpts

April 1 (from MarketWatch) -- Metals futures closed out a largely constructive week with broad losses Friday. Gold prices also retreated, as the U.S. dollar gained ground in the aftermath of two key economic reports for March, which showed lackluster growth in nonfarm payrolls and a flat reading in the Institute for Supply Management's factory index.

The COMEX June gold contract felt selling throughout the session, closing down $2.80 to $428.30.

The nation's economy generated 110,000 new jobs last month, half the projected increase.

"The U.S. is a basket of economic woes," said metals strategist Peter Grandich, adding that traders will likely return to the view that gold makes a good safe-haven investment.

"We will wake up one day and finally see gold investors getting it and the price will be above $500 an ounce," he said.

----(see url for news, 24-hr headlines)-----

Liberty HeadColin Powell to Replace Pope John Paul II#1308294/1/05; 17:22:03

G.W. Bush is confident of speedy Congressional approval.


April Fool.

Fiat news is fun to write.

Best Wishes

SmeagolWhere's the other side?#1308304/1/05; 17:35:36

"The nation's economy generated 110,000 new jobs last month, half the projected increase."

Ssoo, how many pepole LOSST their jobs lasst month, eh, precious? Tell us that! Funny, how they never say...


P.S. Our little assortment of coins arrived yessterday. Nice! One was made in 1824, and is in great shape for being 180 years old... makes one wonder what tales it could tell of its travels to get here... and what it may ssee in the next centuries... unlike cheap copper/zinc tokens that corrode to nothing in a few years!

GoldendomeAre we King or Humpty Dumpty?#1308314/1/05; 18:18:39

Ouchee-wow-wow!! The pump price of Regular unleaded Gasoline here in my little corner of the world has spiked 9 cents in the past two days (5 yesterday and 4 today.) To a price, depending on the station, of $2.22 to $2.26 per gallon.

It is definitely great to be King! To prosper even from your own profligacy. Oh! It's so wonderful! Having the WRC (world reserve currency) the U.s. dollar, being pumped up stronger from all of this Crude oil price inflation. Like the little white Michelin Tire Guy that was becoming deflated, but now needed again. His sagging muscles are expanding and his chest is puffing out again. Now, he's needed because of all those dollars required to buy all of that expensive oil. Spend spend spend--borrow borrow borrow--pump pump pump. Come'on toilers round the world, absorb! You want those dollars--need those dollars--gotta have those dollars!

SmeagolGold/Oil Ratio at All Time Low#1308324/1/05; 20:31:10

GoldiloxGCCO - Gold/oil ratio#1308334/1/05; 20:49:12

@ Ssir Sssmeagol,

Thanks for the Zeall article on gold/oil ratio. It is an exquisite little numbers game.

Too many variables to be totally predictive, but what a great exercise to manipulate those factors and see the different solution sets. was an 'accident'#1308344/1/05; 22:57:11

snip from the Bloomberg article:

The figures, one of which was accidentally released early, sparked a rally in the U.S. currency after it initially declined following the Labor Department's monthly U.S. payrolls report. Employers added 110,000 workers in March, barely half the number economists expected. The euro fluctuated almost 2 cents against the dollar in less than two hours.

``A lot of players established short dollar positions at bad levels,'' said Tom Benfer, vice president of foreign exchange in New York at the Bank of Montreal. ``As the market turned stronger for the dollar, it turned into a blood bath.''
Full article at:

968Issues of concern to the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank.#1308354/2/05; 01:27:00

Interesting remark by Sir K Dwight Venner, the Governor of the Eastern Carribean Central Bank (who have bought for +/- 23 billion Treasuries in january this year.

Domestically we have to treat with the fundamental issue of small size, both in terms of land mass and population. The question we have to pose for ourselves is, given the resources we have, whatstandard of living is possible and sustainable over long periods of time?

The imbalance between expectations and resources in most countries shows up in the Balance of Payments on the external account and in the budget domestically. Not many, if any country, could like the US get away with running these twin deficits over any period of time, as they are almost self correcting as creditors both external and domestic will withdraw their support at some stage. In fact, in the US, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan has expressed his concern about the current situation. Antigua and Barbuda, as well as other countries in the Currency Union face this situation, and I can only urge that it be vigourously addressed."

"Monetary Stability is tied to the performance of the exchange rate. We have chosen a fixed exchange rate regime, and have managed to successfully maintain this at 2.7 EC to the US dollar since July 1976. This has required us to maintain a very high level of foreign exchange reserves, presently 96% to the currency in circulation. This is above the legal limit of 60% and is approximately equivalent to
four months imports where the benchmark is three months."

"Let me put these two stability conditions in a way that the ordinary layman would understand. If the currency is devalued, the ability to purchase goods from abroad will be decreased and the prices of all goods will go up due to inflation. Also, on the other hand, if wages and prices increase faster than productivity we will become less competitive. The Monetary Council has recommended to
governments that they establish Tripartite Committees comprised of representatives from the government, private sector and the trade unions to monitor wages, prices, employment andproductivity.
With respect to financial stability, whereas in the case of the devaluation you will lose the ability to purchase more goods and services, in this case, if a bank closes you will lose all of your money. A proper legal and regulatory environment is therefore vital to the maintenance of stability. Stability can therefore be spelt out under the following headings with the appropriate responsibilities assigned todifferent institutions:
• The Central Bank has the responsibility to maintain the external and domestic value of the currency;
• The Central Bank in conjunction with the Governments has the responsibility of ensuring the safety and soundness of the financial system;
• The Banks have the responsibility of ensuring the safety of their obligations to their depositors;
• The Government has the responsibility that they keep their obligations for salaries, services and debt repayments.
Without this stability, growth and development will be very difficult to achieve, much less maintained. This brings me to two fundamental premises which I have taken great pains to bring to the attention of our governments and citizens, and will continue to do so on every available occasion.
Number one is that banks do not lend out their own money. They only lend what is deposited with them. It is therefore depositors money which is at risk. Secondly, governments can only provide services with money which they take in through taxes or its citizens."
It seems like the governor wants to prepathe carribean financial system (with its dollar-peg) for a devaluation.

NedNot a bad article from Bob Chapman#1308364/2/05; 05:14:17 has got to make you puke. The World Gold Council has appointed Pierre Lassonde, President of Newmont Mining, as its new chairman. Now you can understand why Lassonde never would give any credence to the fact that the gold market was manipulated. Antics like this are a reminder as to why gold has a harder time going higher. We get very little support from the mining industry that knows darn right well that the market is being manipulated. This has got to make you puke. The World Gold Council has appointed Pierre Lassonde, President of Newmont Mining, as its new chairman. Now you can understand why Lassonde never would give any credence to the fact that the gold market was manipulated. Antics like this are a reminder as to why gold has a harder time going higher. We get very little support from the mining industry that knows darn right well that the market is being manipulated.

"This has got to make you puke. The World Gold Council has appointed Pierre Lassonde, President of Newmont Mining, as its new chairman. Now you can understand why Lassonde never would give any credence to the fact that the gold market was manipulated. Antics like this are a reminder as to why gold has a harder time going higher. We get very little support from the mining industry that knows darn right well that the market is being manipulated."

"We ran into two subscribers this week that told us that their brokers said not to buy gold and silver coins and shares, but to buy the gold ETF, Exchange Traded Fund, listed as GLD on the NYSE. This vehicle is not an alterative to owning physical bullion, coins or shares. Rather, it is just another paper alternative promising to deliver gold – but from where? It will be interesting to see how this bait and switch operation prepares its financial statements, given that the prospectus discloses that gold stored in its subcustodians, and sub-custodians (which could be all of GLD's gold) are not audited, or even inspected. It says in their 10Q "investment in gold", which can mean any form of gold for audit purposes. It can be nearly anything gold related, such as gold certificates or other promises to pay in gold. If they declared their assets to be gold they would have to substantiate to their auditors that the gold really exists, which GLD cannot do because of the inability to audit or even inspect gold stored in subcustodians and sub-custodians.

GLD is just another paper scheme; it should not be considered as an alternative to physical ownership or shares. GLD is just another form of derivative. This scam, sanctioned by the crooks at the NYSE an SEC, has drawn in $2 billion. Its sponsors, the World Gold Fantasy Council, whose new CEO is Pierre Lassonde, would have us believe that $2 billion in real gold was purchased, when in all probability, none was purchased. This is just another elitist scam because gold is down $40 since the $2 billion was put in the fund. That is impossible. It should have risen $40. You don't buy GLD; you buy bullion, coins and shares. You also tell your brokers, who are deceiving you, that they and their managements are liars. "

NedWhoops!#1308374/2/05; 05:16:00

First part of the 'link' is the real 'link' (ends at .php), second part of the 'link' is the first quote.
CaradocMore on the end of cheap oil#1308384/2/05; 08:25:04

Nothing shrill here and admittedly not a lot that's new for readers of this forum. But it's the first time I've seen it all in one place. This fellow a lawyer -- dispassionately lays down his cards one at a time to make his case. In question-and-answer format, he brings up all the possible "solutions" one at a time and proceeds to demolish them.

For example, here's a snip addressing oil sands:
"The bad news is that oil derived from these oil sands is extremely financially and energetically intensive to extract and thus suffers from a horribly slow extraction rate. Whereas conventional oil has enjoyed a rate of "energy return on energy invested" - "EROEI" for short - of about 30 to 1, the oil sands rate of return hovers around 1.5 to 1.
This means that we would have to spend 15 times as much money to generate the same amount of oil from the oil sands as we do from conventional sources of oil.
Where to find such a huge amount of capital is largely a moot point because, even with massive improvements in extraction technology, the oil sands in Canada are projected to only produce a paltry 2.2 million barrels per day by 2015. That's not much oil considering we currently need 83.5 million barrels per day, are projected to need 120 million barrels per day by 2020."
*****end of snip*****

Since the case is presented dispassionately, this would be a good one to send to the brother or brother-in-law who is yet to be convinced that the oil problem has already begun.


CaradocSame site's "Breaking News" link#1308394/2/05; 08:37:14

This one is worth a bookmarking. The headline for yesterday was particularly apt.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Hard assets, easy access!#1308404/2/05; 10:09:48">gold -- a global calling card
TownCrierBush picks chairman for economic advisory council -- "Helicopter Ben"#1308414/2/05; 10:37:45

(AP) WASHINGTON -- President Bush has chosen Federal Reserve Board member Ben Bernanke to be the next chairman of his Council of Economic Advisers, the White House announced Friday.

Sung Won Sohn, chief economist and president of Hanmi Bank in Los Angeles, said praised Bush's choice.

"The Council of Economic Advisers is supposed to be the think tank for the White House," Sohn said. "Bernanke has demonstrated his academic credentials while at the same time he understands the real world."

^------(from url)-----^

With this appointment, perhaps someone else is in mind to take over Greenspan's Fed chair next January, but then again, perhaps this is merely a bit of political proving ground to be walked first -- a sort of internship to shape and test his mettle for the task ahead at the Fed's top spot.

Let it rain. (dollars)

Choose a gold umbrella.


GoldiloxEastern Carib Central Bank Quote#1308424/2/05; 10:59:23


from your quote:

• The Central Bank has the responsibility to maintain the external and domestic value of the currency;
• The Central Bank in conjunction with the Governments has the responsibility of ensuring the safety and soundness of the financial system;
• The Banks have the responsibility of ensuring the safety of their obligations to their depositors;
• The Government has the responsibility that they keep their obligations for salaries, services and debt repayments.


And what a fine jib they've done, with the US $ losing 97% of its value since the FED creation.

What's that old Beatles song?

"Let me tell you how it will be.
There's one for you nineteen for me.
'cause I'm the TAXMAN,
and you're working for no one but me."

No wonder TPTB had to assassinate John Lennon with their little program-controlled pukes. Can't have the people believing that stuff.

OvSLittle Program-Controlled Pukes.#1308444/2/05; 13:55:13

Goldilox, Goldilox. That comment
is a handgranade from the extreme
LEFT field.
So why would Lennon's widow, Yoko
Ono, who always remained very
loyal to him, spend millions of
dollars for the same social causes
as, for example, the president of
the former Chase Manhattan
Bank, who obviously was part of the
G'lox, you are very good when it
comes to gold and are much appreci-
ated here. But your political views
don't mesh with most of this audience.
They seem to be leftovers from the
I'm going to get "fortified" against
your anticipated "rail". OvS

OvSapropos hellcopters#1308454/2/05; 14:32:21

Could it be that there
won't be a clansman at
the helm when all hell
breaks loose?
Time to go back to the
book: How the Irish
saved Western Civiliza-

arbyhGold vs. Gold mining shares?#1308464/2/05; 16:26:07

I will have to admit, as most people, always having an interest in gold, but know little of the reality of this market. I have read your board for a few days and find you all very well informed.
I feel with the USA's trade imbalances, national debt, consumer debt, housing bubbles, interest rates inability to control inflation due to energy costs....the country is due a major financial correction. With right wing agenda at the helm..God help us.
My question for the board is...what is better gold in hand, or stock in gold mines. I know of course that the stock trades in dollars and the dollar itself is only backed by debt. (see I have been reading this board)
One thing that concerns me about gold is the resale liquid is it and where can it be sold? Example: I see they sell gold at a decent value here, but will they buy gold at USA Gold?
I have limited resources compared to most of you...product of being career military, but I can invest say 10 grand or more.
The country's currency and govt. seems ripe for serious economic problems.

TownCrierarbyh, here is some commentary to get you started#1308474/2/05; 16:36:01

"This would be a good time to review some of the differences between gold stock ownership and owning the metal itself given the fact that a large number of people are now interested in the gold universe...."

(see URL-hyperlink for more)


Gandalf the WhiteWELCOME Sir Arbyh --- You ask #1308484/2/05; 16:53:48

arbyh (4/2/05; 16:26:07MT - msg#: 130846)
One thing that concerns me about gold is the resale liquid is it and where can it be sold?
Gold in almost any of the standard bullion forms may be sold ANYWHERE in this WORLD at any time, at near to the published SPOT price. I have yet to find anywhere that I have traveled that even HESTIATED to offer me a fair price for a piece of YELLLOW. Especially, if you know what the most desired items are in those areas. BUT, such a minor item, (minor to some), may be a MAJOR item to others. I know that the Chinese frown-on re-buying Pandas that are not in the original wrapper together with the little piece of white paper with the squiggle marks on it.
I know that USAGOLD will even offer to buy back any bullion items that you purchase from them. AND, in most cases, you will be making a profit, (as the price of YELLOW is headed NORTH !)
Good luck.
GW <;-)

mackattackmetal vs goldstocks#1308494/2/05; 17:32:38

If i were you id buy the physical.The gold cartel is from within the gold mining industry itself.Right now they are using your money to explore but plan to buy up most of the juniors at pennies on the dollar.Whether it be environmental concerns,poachers(ie golden star),the govt taking back the property(nevsun),too strong of a currency,or striking miners(south africa) or even rising oil prices i.e costs.Only 1 in 10,if that, will make it big.Gold stocks have failed to protect against inflation,clamity etc.They should be seen as a gamble in a fixed casino.Word is now leaking about the inside manipulation of the gold/gold stocks thus the lack of interest in them as they spiral out of control towards earth,usually selling off hard on any good news as many desperately try to escape.If you live outside the usa gold may not do you much good as it only rises against the u.s dollar.On the other hand you are far less likely to lose money with physical after all there are no trading halts.If i was you id buy 80 percent plus metal and then 10 to 20 percent stocks expecting to lose most if not all with the gold stocks ,but you will have some fun as they rally and then crash to new lows over and over.My brother has been holding steadfast to his stocks for 2.5 years barely breaking even.But bare in mind that money will not buy what it did 2.5 years ago.I wouldnt fall for the someday over the rainbow promises of gold stocks,the industry itself is simply too mistrusted by the public and many gold believers themselves.As the gold mining industry slowly goes bankrupt thanks to the likes of cartel's guy Lassonde, your physical will become worth more as physical will simply no longer be available.The majors are losing reserves,the mid caps are to busy getting shorted by insiders who then try and do crappy mergers to drive their own stock down and the juniors are a total crap shoot with no cash and likely as anything to go bankrupt.We were promised acquisitions but it isnt happening as the insiders know the juniors are going down not up'so why buy them now?If you want to buy stocks,uranium will be were the fleeing money runs to.But physcial should always be worth something,unless the us govt makes it illegal to own again.Ah what the hell,go spend the money now before it buys less.Try non perishables,you can always sell the food once the hyper inflation kicks in!
jayzeeNaked Shorting & Dateline#1308504/2/05; 19:33:17

Please make an effort to see Dateline on Apr. 10, at 7PM EDT. They are going to have a segment exposing naked shorting of stocks.

This is important because most of us small investors in PM stocks have been cheated by some hedge funds and other big money people.

As to the PM stocks vs holding the metals, the stocks should yield a higher profit. BUT, if they "create" phantom shares in cyberspace and sell these shares, they drive our share prices down. Also, these "insiders" do not have to repurchase these fraudulent shares, they are just deleted from the computers and vanish into cyberspace, and the shorters keep the sale price. Eventually legitamate shareholders could own 200 million shares, when only 100 million shares were issued by the company.

This fraud will continue until enough of us contact our congresspeople to complain. (I have already called and emailed mine).

Cavan ManOvS#1308514/2/05; 19:38:33

History deserves careful reading. However, I have read the work you referenced and have read several others'; conclusions--same. Rgds..CM (You might want to read "A History of Ireland" by Edmund Curtis.)
Dollar Bill.,.#1308524/2/05; 19:46:07

Christian Men need no leader.
Jesus asked no one lead a life a celebacy.
Jesus asked no man to wear a crown and be called holy father.
No man can free himself from the devil, and no man can attain any holy state. Each man is equally facing the devil and the lord until they die. No man can advance to -reverand- and no man can attain a status of -most reverand- and no man can attain a status of -your eminence- and no man can attain the status of holy father.
The lord is one and the rest of us are all equal and cannot attain any advance. It is a gift, and not an elected position,
and is not a rank in some group.
Men can dress in fancy hats and yards of cloth.
It makes no difference.
Any man can do good in his moment to moment.
The pretense of attainment is a gift from the devil.
As Jesus said, call no one father but your father in heaven.
I say amen to that.

Dollar Bill.,.#1308534/2/05; 19:53:47

My name is Will Burke, and I live in Wethersfield Ct.
Christian men can stand alone with thier god.
America had to free itself from a king.
If the king in 1776 was a real good man, a real christian man, it would still have been a tyranny.
The day must come when the holy father pretense must end.
At least it has for me.

NedCarodoc#1308544/2/05; 21:54:56

Interesting articles from your link.....thanks. I was checking out our friend, Goldman Sachs "Superspike" article.(oil to $105/bbl)

Some controversial facts for sure, a little contradictory in places. Here's a snip:

"Supply growth expected, just not enough to recreate a spare capacity cushion
We believe investors need to differentiate between growth in supply and growth in spare
capacity. The former we think is likely in the years ahead. The latter we think is unlikely
without demand destruction. Given that we do not believe the world is running out of oil,
we do not see a supply crisis per se as much as we see a lack of growth in spare capacity."

Several times they mention that "we do not believe the world is running out of oil" yet supply growth will remain tight. Another snip:

".....such countries (OPEC) have yet to take the
necessary steps to allow for large increases in investment in oil supply, either by their
state-owned oil companies or by foreign oil companies. Until new investments are made,
we believe demand destruction will be needed to recreate a spare capacity cushion in
order to return to a period of lower energy prices."

Prices will not recede until "demand destruction" takes place. Although they are adamant the world is not running out of oil, they believe there will be an oil "superspike" and will only recede with "demand destruction".

Translation into English, oil is going up and possibly accelerating up until an economic collapse brings it back down.......but none of this is due to "the world running out of oil" ! Almost comical.

Come on GS, say it! PEAK OIL !

GoldiloxOvS, Fortify yourself (and certainly exercise your right to disagree), but #1308554/2/05; 23:38:48

please don't totally ignore the evidence. Papers released in a 1990 FOI act request on Lennon verify that an FBI "surveillance team" was watching him 24/7 - even during the entire nine years he did not record any music or make any public appearances. Were they watching and tape recording as the assassin set up the hit? Who knows, but there is much that smells funny in JEdgar's closets, and the "informed electorate" will certainly never see anything that doesn't have at least 60% of the info lined out - even long after all the participants are dead.

Read "The Control of Candy Jones" for funsies. Heck, it's only $2.35 to check if it is all BS or might contain a shred of evidence, and you might at least find it "entertaining". Cheaper than a Blockbuster movie!

Having followed the NeoCon saga in South America - removing elected presidents and feeding money, arms and "advisors" to Pinochet, Stroessner, and successive Hitler-wannabe Generalissimos, one has to wonder what the real foreign policy was down there.

Reagan dedicated the Space Shuttle to the same "Afghan Freedom Fighters" that were later accused of masterminding 9/11, although NONE of that evidence will ever see the light of day, either.

Heck, even the Barrick gold price manipulation trial gets not a peep on the "business news", but this week's loser on "The Apprentice" is such a big deal that it merits a 10 minute interview with the schmuck.

It's easy to poopoo any alternative news if we're mainlining our daily dose of GE, Murdock, and Disney, but deeper investigation opens a lot of questions, and takes a lot of effort. The big stories are WAY more unsettling than "steroids in baseball (the same ones they put in our dairy products), Michael Jackson's tribulations, Martha's "trial", and even "the reasons for war were fabricated", ut no one in the media will touch them.

I will only mention this stuff during open forum hours, so as not to defocus during the trading week, but more often that not, there is plenty of "smoking gun" for anyone who is willing to look. No one has all the answers, but where will we end up if no one has the courage to ask the questions - especially the hard ones to answer.

GoldiloxFreedom#1308564/3/05; 00:05:50

@ OvS,

It does not bother me that I am not of the "majority" opinion, but you are mistaken when you suggest that I would "rail" anyone for believing differently than I. I come from a strongly patriotic family that has given some of our lives for the privilege of dissent, and I do not take that freedom lightly in any way. Nor would I ever suggest, as some do, that those who believe differently should abdicate their citizenship or freedom of expression.

My beef is in no way against the US Constitution and those who defend it, but I openly question those who appear to put their personal power agenda above the democracy.

I welcome your disagreement. You can rest assured that I will examine any documentation you suggest, as I often learn much from new evidence.

Peace to you and yours,


GoldiloxCrude Oil vs. Gasoline#1308574/3/05; 00:15:36

Had an interesting discussion today with someone about the relationship of crude oil to gasoline. I suggested that crude prices could fall if crude deliverables outstripped refinery capacity, while retail gasoline demand could continue to force pump prices up.

I think this might be an interesting dilema for the oil and economic analysts, and might also create a nasty PR issue for the US oil companies.

Puplava mentioned this in his FSN broadcast today, but I have heard very little elsewhere.

Anyone here (especially BB, Boilermaker, or someone else in the trade) care to comment?

KnallgoldMisc.#1308584/3/05; 04:35:04

In my view,the GAB thinks 100years ahead and has figured out fiat money!Deep down,and I have learnt to listen to that inner voice (it is Trust!),I think similar and know that someday,we will have to go back to honest money,connected to value.And,Randy'so does FOA!In a true glimpse on his visionary capabilities,he called "Freegold" a bridge.A bridge to what?None here ever reflected what the Other side could be.And don't tell me it will be 100% digital fiat and NOTHING to store value,that would be the total one-world "money" fascist slavery.Too black for my taste,unrealistic and most certainly dysfunctional.

So far,I did not get an appropriate response about why not an honest Goldstandard.I knew this hit the core,but tell Ari never to propose an honest fiat!To be clear,an honest fiat is probably as good as an honest Goldstandard.I have learned that its human to wax endlessly about the systems and its merits,out of opportunism and lazyness as one can circumvent the "what is MY duty".Because in the end its more important,no,essential,that the participants (especially the leaders!thats why they are LEADERS) adhere to the moral principles.Even in communism there were good places to live (in the family,community),where the people stuck to their human duties.On the other hand,in so called freemarkets,no personal freedom could be reached because of moral decadence (and vice versa).

Ever wondered why it says "thou' shalt not (fill in the
sin) " in the 10 commandments?THOU' shalt NOT DO BAD THINGS,not the others,THOU! shalt not!YOU!It does not exempt leaders either.Comprehending this always brings mankind a huge step forward.

Thats why I got all ear when Aristotle brought up this honest fiat.Like Freegold,an good and essential start.Basically,a promise.But then,in the world of imperfections,a control mechanism implemented,is always leading to better results,no?

I post this moral rant in heritage of my father who had the highest moral standards.And yes,he lived to it,even in this rather dark times.So there is no excuse,it is possible.

Starting this month,the German Gov. can sniff in all account informations of his citizens.Big brother an US phenomenon?Naw,even chips for every euro note have been proposed.Often I see the EU as the continuation of the USA with other means.
Paul Wolfowitz going IMF?The bad guy attached to the $ so the euro (who accepted him there so fast!) can play the good guy?-its too obvious and so artificially.
Oh,and the ECB continues to manipulate the Goldprice-thou shalt not lie,getting after others property-thou shalt not manipulate the Goldprice!When will you start with the next step of honesty?

geHuh? Related?#1308594/3/05; 06:02:58

IEA warns against possible acute oil shortage

"The measures, suggested by IEA, include the reduction of a working week, a ban on using privately owned vehicles, the introduction of a 90-kilometre speed limit, the reduction of public transport fare and the encouragement of staff members to work at home, using Internet."

UK PRESS: Oil Prices Force Philippines Working Week Cut

NedF-1#1308614/3/05; 07:08:05

Just finished watching the 3rd Formula 1 race of the Bahrain.

Interesting track, a few kilometres of asphalt in the middle of a desert. One of the drivers slid through a corner and drove on the 'grass', the announcer corrected himself.....drove on the 'astro-turf'.

Formula 1 comes to the Arab world....interesting times !

968Central banking in the time of integration.#1308624/3/05; 07:11:51

Conclusions by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the Fifth Conference of the Bank of Albania on "Central Banking in the Time of Integration", Tirana, 25 March 2005.

"Dollarisation or FX may constitute another obstacle that places financial stability and monetary policy independence at risk, as argued by Mr. Driessen. Therefore, it is a problem that needs attention."
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Does anyone has information on this Mr. Driessen ? Is it Huub Driessen, the assistant governor of the Central Bank of Aruba ?

GoldiloxThey're In — but Not Home Free#1308634/3/05; 09:42:58,0,4296610.story?coll=la-home-headlines


"If you can fog a mirror, you can get a home loan," said mortgage analyst Ralph DeFranco.

An interest-only loan offers the ability to defer for three, five or seven years any payment for the house itself. That allows a potential buyer to stretch to afford a place that otherwise would be out of reach.

Of course, everyone else using an interest-only loan can stretch too. The result is that prices keep rising. That, in turn, encourages still more people to use interest-only mortgages, which fuels still more appreciation.

In 2001, as the current housing boom got underway, fewer than 2% of California homes were bought with interest-only loans, according to an analysis done for The Times by LoanPerformance, a San Francisco mortgage research firm.

By last year, the level had risen to 48%. Nationally, LoanPerformance says, interest-only loans were used in about a third of all purchases.

What's propelled the market up in California, some experts worry, could just as easily speed its descent.


Those who heeded Sir AG's "advice" to use more floating rate mortgages are begining to see the risk factors pile up as rates increase and price increases wane. Interest only loans are just another way to put off "paying the piper".

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.SECOND EDITION: Newly Updated -- Written for Today's Market#1308644/3/05; 12:15:57">Gold Investing - Second Edition
TownCrierknallgold, a question#1308654/3/05; 13:15:54

"In a true glimpse on his visionary capabilities, he (FOA) called 'Freegold' a bridge. A bridge to what? None here ever reflected what the Other side could be.And don't tell me it will be 100% digital fiat and NOTHING to store value..."

HOW can you... or WHY would you suggest there is "NOTHING" to store value when it has been so often said by several that it is through our tangibles, and especially our conveniently liquid (marketwise) gold that our value is truly stored?

It seems to me that the fair (free-) value of gold becomes easily obscured, like underground roots, when a so-called honest system of money promises its users that every resulting monetary leaf on the widely spreading tree of financial contracts is traceable back through the stems, twigs, branches and trunk to theoretical convertibility at the roots.

Who ever said with absolute authority that a monetary leaf, which has shown itself to be efficient as a unit of account, must also be a worthy long-term storage of value?

Is it not at all possible that we mere mortals might be able to conclude that the small ineffeciencies or costs that do arise from an ever inflating, depreciating currency are an acceptible price to pay for the smoothing economic functionality and day-to-day convenience that it offeres? But quite obviously, hand-in-hand with this fiat currency monetary system we would also need to have a parallel system for meaningful long-term savings -- an honest savings system which is made and kept Honest on the premise of actual (not derivatized or "creditized") unambiguous ownership of tangibles, most suitably gold.



As an appaiser of real estate for loan purposes, some of the appraisals done are for interest only mortgage loans. To quote one of the lenders I do real estate appraisals for these type of loans, "....... Do not get a bad attitude about these types of loans, because if you look at the amortization schedule for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage loan, in the first 1O years, very little principal is paid off"....."As a result, we are not doing a diservice to the borrower"......"If you look at a graph depicting M-3, you will find it going vertical, as a result of the FED printing money like crazy. That money will have to go somewhere, and we believe it will go into real estate.".. WHO IS THE REAL CULPRIT? THE BORROWER OR THE LENDER??
MKUSAGOLD Market Update -- 4/4/05#1308684/3/05; 18:08:02

Now posted. . . . .

European Central Bank gold sales further undermine euro credibility

Excerpt - - -
Leaving aside the ECB's agenda, the sales are not without repercussions. They send the wrong message at the wrong time. Europe and the euro are already reeling under significant alterations to the stability pact which restricted budget deficits and created the impression that the various member states were willing to make sacrifices for the economic stability of the union. Gold was originally added as a component of ECB reserves to give credibility to the new currency and substance to the claim it would become an international rival to the dollar. By selling off gold reserves, the ECB calls that commitment to question and fuels critics who see the euro and the ECB as no better than the dollar and the Federal Reserve. This past Saturday the Financial Times went so far as to say in an editorial that "the euro does not have much to recommend it, other than not being the dollar." Mysterious, ungrounded, seemingly inexplicable and unnecessary gold sales are not likely to alter that assessment.

Henristill open forum?#1308694/3/05; 20:23:51

knowledge washes over the sand grain of my existence
as the ocean upon the shore
new truths revealed with each crashing intrusion
each different and even more amazing than the last
dislodging me from my heart
drawing me down out and away

on wild windy wave I'm tossed
cast away and lost
used as a tool to abrade the immovable
ever present but now slightly diminished
just from my passing
changed but still not moved
does it know?

realizing that which changes not as the truth
always there to receive me again
returning to nestle amongst those of my own kind
changed yet somehow the same
rediscovering my heart
clinging mightily to each other our collective strength in numbers
not to be drawn away again

reaching out to those being swept away
entranced by the ever yet never new lie
knowing there is no way to hold on in the face of such power
letting go the ultimate act of love with the wisdom gained in experience
that they too will return to find themselves at last
golden grains upon the beach of time
knowledge forsaken for what it is not
true love

GoldiloxConfessions of an Economic Hitman#1308704/3/05; 21:33:36

John Perkins, author of the above work, is on CSPAN BookTV right now for anyone interested.
Smeagol Inspiration#1308714/3/05; 21:46:36

That is very nice, Ssir Henri!


GoldiloxECB gold sales#1308724/4/05; 00:30:19

With all the talk about "messaging", the message I get from the ECB sale is that two parties (probably without the printing press powers of the ECB) decided they would rather have 47 tonnes of gold than 30 million Euros on deposit.

Sounds like two smart counter-parties, whomever they may be.

GoldiloxBHP demands iron ore price rise of 110% - report#1308734/4/05; 00:39:28


MELBOURNE (MarketWatch) -- BHP Billiton (BHP) is demanding an increase in iron ore prices of about 110%, despite growing anger from the major Japanese and Chinese steel mills, the Australian Financial Review reports on Monday.

The company has refused to settle for the 71.5% rise in prices for the year starting April 1 that has been agreed by other miners such as Rio Tinto Ltd. (RTP), the newspaper says.

Citing discussions that industry information service Steel Business Briefing has had with Chinese mills, it reports the pricing package being sought by BHP is based on the 71.5% increase in iron ore prices at the port of Australia plus an additional charge of between US$7.50 and US$10 a ton.


A little tidbit for those believing that commodities are ready for a "correction"

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.USAGOLD Market Update -- 04/04/05#1308744/4/05; 01:28:36">gold market update

Client Newsletter 04-04-05.

Now posted. . . . .

European Central Bank gold sales further undermine euro credibility

Excerpt - - -
Leaving aside the ECB's agenda, the sales are not without repercussions. They send the wrong message at the wrong time. Europe and the euro are already reeling under significant alterations to the stability pact which restricted budget deficits and created the impression that the various member states were willing to make sacrifices for the economic stability of the union. Gold was originally added as a component of ECB reserves to give credibility to the new currency and substance to the claim it would become an international rival to the dollar. By selling off gold reserves, the ECB calls that commitment to question and fuels critics who see the euro and the ECB as no better than the dollar and the Federal Reserve. This past Saturday the Financial Times went so far as to say in an editorial that "the euro does not have much to recommend it, other than not being the dollar." Mysterious, ungrounded, seemingly inexplicable and unnecessary gold sales are not likely to alter that assessment.

-- An ABCs of Gold Investing UPDATE - Choosing a gold firm

-- Asia "will retaliate" over Wolfowitz apppointment

Plus more. . . .

Great Albino BatGoldilox - I don't understand your message#1308754/4/05; 01:52:11

Why do you equate 47 tons of gold with 30 million euros?

47 tons of gold with gold at euros 330/oz amounts to
euros 498,662,000, - not 30 million.

One ton of gold is "worth" euros 10,609,000 at today's price of 330 euros/oz. DIRT cheap!

Back up the truck and start loading.


P.S. So the ECB is selling gold? Where are you, dear Belgian? What about all that talk of "gold-friendly" euro?

SundeckECB gold sales#1308764/4/05; 03:44:10

The questions/comments that come to my mind are:

1. Who did they sell it to and what did they get in exchange? $US? Yen? SA rand? renminbi? pounds? other? a mixture? or an IOU from some relieved counterparty?

2. Coupled with this is the unknown execution of the sale... Was it a single off-market, pre-arranged transaction, was it dribbled into the spot market, or was it something between these extremes?

3. There was no discernible impact on the spot POG is sitting about the same level as the last two times that the USDX was around its present level.

4. 47 tonnes is a big lump, but less than 2% of annual new-mine production of around 2500 tonnes. Distributed evenly throughout the year, new-mine sales amounts to about 208 tonnes per month; or about 310 tonnes over a 45-day period (the maximum window of ECB sales). From the attached link, the WGC estimates that about 290 tonnes have been sold since 27 Sep 04 under WAGII; so 47 tonnes under the WAGII quota is not all that significant.

5. I dare say, however, that it is unlikely that new-mine production is brought uniformly to market at the rate of 208 tonnes per month. I would be surprised if there are not considerable monthly varitions in the supply, for many reasons. Similarly, there may be large variations in demand from month to month. These supply/demand mismatch pressures must be accommodated by one means or another. One would need to be an "insider" to gauge the problems that may arise, and the wheeling and dealing that is used to assuage the resulting pressures.

6. The ECB still has 719 tonnes left (see link), so they sold about 6% in one lump. Compare with the UK selling half its stock "at auction"...

....just another one of the mysteries surrounding gold and central bank transactions...


TownCrierSundeck, ECB sales...#1308774/4/05; 05:18:14

With the position of the U.S. (Treasury) being that of fixed prices ($42/oz) and fixed locale (no sales), I can't resist the thought that the token sales by the ECB of its own gold was a carefully orchestrated demonstration to further the contrast of the European system with that of the American system.

Meaning, not only has the ECB already differentiated its style of management with marked-to-market gold prices (instead of artificially fixed prices), now it has also demonstrated first hand that it is quite capable of using (selling, delivering) gold as part of monetary operations. (After all, regarding a potentially interested trading partner or monetary ally (Big Oil, for example, or Asian CBs), wouldn't the ally want to see the ECB demonstrate in fact that it had the wherewithal to deliver gold for euros?)

In the same vein, I wouldn't be surprised to one day see the ECB suddenly demonstrate out of the blue that it also possessed the wherewithal to be a buyer of gold, too. And if we think about it, that would be yet Another celebration of difference; because you won't be seeing the U.S. (Treasury) buying gold anytime soon in any way which might pressure market prices, and certainly not having any ability to get it successfully at anything close to its fictional $42/oz price!

ECB says boldy, "Viva la difference!"

That's a possible take on the event that I haven't yet seen expressed anywhere else, but wanted to run it up the flagpole here for further consideration among our thoughtful readers.


Belgian@GAB#1308784/4/05; 05:50:37

I have no black on white evidence regarding the ECB/BIS monetary " STRATEGIES ". After more than 5 years of gold brain-strorming, here at usagold, it would be ridiculous to conclude that the EMU has no such thing as a (golden)strategy. That's why a growing majority seems to shift back to the "Zeuro" perception, theory, certitude. The Belgian Northsea shrimp is NOT joining them !

Reread all those pro-euro-gold ECB speeches of the past 6 years. Don't expect those monetary strategists to let you peep into their cards !!! I've been posting my personal ideas about the strategies, repeatedly and see not one single reason why the euro-gold-concept should have landed in the dustbin. On the contrary...the recent MK's post on the ECB's gold-action (FT-opinion) evidences that the further the euro-gold-concept evolves, the more it bites into the $-IMS.

Dearest GAB, you certainly do remember all my previous responses (thoughts) on the whole CB-gold affairs. Gold is permanently increasing in " EXCHANGE VALUE " ...IN FAVOR OF THE BUYERS ...and at the disadvantage of the "real" sellers. " Gold-Buyers ", in the euro aligned re-distribution complex and gold-sellers under the dollar coercion. The re-allocations of gold are absolutely UN-transparent for obvious reasons. The receivers of the goldmetal are operating in a buyers market and have the power to ridicule the goldprice in function of its tremendous exchange value. The gold accumulators are the ones who are holding the dollar-reserves. They decide on the dollar's fate, NOW ! And it is the dollar that desperately wants a much higher goldprice...and...IS NOT GOING TO GET IT !!!

If I want your house (wealth)...I simply have to kill the price you wish to see for your house ! Then, after some time, you will throw the house at me for almost nothing. Your house lost its exchange value.

The gold buyers operate from a position of absolute strength... they have an alternative ready for the "used" $-system.

Oilowners shift their preferences to Asia and wellcome (encourage) Asia's underwriting of the euro-gold-concept. Asia will keep growing for the next decades...consumes an increasing amount of oil (gas-resources)...and gradually moves away from the dollar towards euro-gold. This process needs to evolve with strategic gold-steps.

So, one should better talk about euro-gold-ACTION instead of the public mantra of euro-goldsales !!! Big difference, GAB.

Force the IMF to *** SELL *** goldmetal at ridicule prices as to take away the IMF's gold-exchange power !!! Maybe G. Brown (R.Rato) is an EMU-mole !?

Today, governments and their CBs are much less open on their gold-interventions (actions) than during the London Gold Pool during the sixties : THERE IS MUCH MORE AT STAKE TODAY !!! It is the whole $-IMS that is on the guillotine.
Have you noticed how silent it has become on the gold-statement front !? The FT (and other AA colluders) profit from this silence to "Zeuro", once again. Even Knallgold lost (almost) his gold-faith (smile Sir, just joking).

GAB, the oilprice is already *** floating *** ! NOT because of peak-oil but because of the dollar(system) ! It took more than 3 decades to arrive at this. Why are you so impatient with the prospect of "floating" goldprices, expressing the "REAL EXCHANGE VALUE" of the precious on a continious regime ? There was definitely a strategy behind the renewed oil-pricing as there is a strategy behind the euro-gold-concept. Reread Duisenberg's "mission accomplished" speeches. And let the FT put the ECB/BIS at the same level of the FED/IMF for as much as they want AND FOR AS LONG AS THEY CAN.

The euro's credibility lies in its association as a numeraire for FREEGOLD. A low, very low goldprice is needed to give all the dollar-debt enough credibility to use this unit of account. But with the growing big global coalition moving gradually away from the dollar-unit...the IMF is in the process of losing the support it enjoyed for so long. This happens gradually and strategically, dearest GAB. And that's the im cauda venenum (poison in the tail).

Sure...during "the" process, the paper-gold keeps playing gold's price as if nothing is happening with the exchange value of the precious.

The global economic conditions keep on detoriating and demand much more dollar/fiat/digit-expansion...MUCH MORE ! But then the $-DEBT-system loses ever more credibility AGAINST THE EURO CONCEPT and speeds up the demise of the dollar's status. A war is a war, no.

Don't doubt about the euro's friendship with gold and think gold-ACTION when "they" talk goldsales. -:)(:-

968@ Great Albino Bat#1308794/4/05; 06:06:02

On what basis do you conclude that the eurosystem isn't gold-friendly ?
On 8 january '99 the goldreserves of the ECB were valued at +/- 99 billion, last week they were valued at 124 billion. On the other hand, on 8 january '99 the foreign exchange reserves of the ECB were valued at +/- 230 billion, last week they were valued at 153,8 billion. Yet I see noone making any remarks about this fact. It seems to me that the the eurosystem is gold-friendly, but not so paper(dollar) friendly. (Last week Bernanke mentioned that the Fed is holding +700 billion in permanent US-Treasuries, what a contrast)
The 47 tonnes that has been sold, represent 6% of the ECB-goldreserves, and less then 0,4% of the total goldreserves of the eurosystem central banks.
Can you give me some examples (apart from these 47 tonnes) which will explaine me WHY you have doubts on the euro's 'goldfriendlyness'.
Remember that the euro has become the second reserve currency and that it has risen +/- 50% since its introduction against the dollar WITHOUT having the benefit of being on an oil-standard. The european faction simply wants a very, very gradual and subtle change, and therefor it appears to be necessary to sell some gold.
Thanks in advance for your insights.

968@ Belgian#1308804/4/05; 06:55:49

Acceptance speech by Dr Willem F Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, Aachen,
9 May 2002.

SNIP : 'It is the first currency that has not only severed its link to gold, but also its link to the nation-state.'
"The euro's credibility lies in its association as a numeraire for FREEGOLD." -- exactly Belgian ! And this is what Duisenberg meant by this snippit.

Buongiorno!Henri, 130869#1308814/4/05; 08:15:23

Bravo! Sir, Bravo! You reflect what we all have been going through. Such a fine work deserves a title--anyone?

Can we save this somewhere as an example of the essence of gold markets?

Felix the CatWhich China Sectors will ''Collapse'' in the future?#1308824/4/05; 08:23:37

Recently I started reading the book Collapse, by the well-regarded scientist Jared Diamond, because it had a section about the Maya, the ancient Central American civilization that used to rip the hearts out of its war prisoners while they were still alive. Unfortunately Diamond was too high-minded to review these gory details, and instead focused on how poor land and water management had led to the demise of this civilization.

Bummer. Nevertheless, the book did offer one positive surprise. It had a chapter on China that made me think about the country differently. The chapter was ultimately about China's environment and I feel if I became an expert on the issue, I would be in a better position to make long-term investments in the country.

The chief environmental factor to consider is the shape of the country. As discussed earlier in his more famous book, Guns, Germs and Steel, Diamond thinks China's geography explains why the country's core was politically unified as far back as 221 B.C., and has more or less remained so since then. No other region compares. Europe, with its major peninsulas such as Italy and Spain/Portugal, its big islands like Britain and Ireland and its crisscrossing waterways, remains fragmented.

China, however, has a relatively smooth coastline, parallel-flowing rivers, and lack of major islands, so the early dynasties?warriors were able to hoof out on horseback and crack open the heads of dissenters. As a result, it was possible to administer and unify a large geographic core. Diamond says this unity explains why China has a 'lurching' history: one that can make great steps forward and backwards.

Let's take the Great Leap Forward as an example. Because of the strength of the newly triumphant Maoist Communists, the central government was able to institute this disastrous economic experiment throughout the country. In a less unified area, common sense manifested itself in some corners of the empire. The result of that monumental experiment in industrialization was a famine that killed millions upon millions.

Then, on the other hand, consider the dilemma China would be in at the moment if it had, say, a population of 1.7 billion instead of 1.3 billion. Consider all the countries around the globe that are trying to stem their population growth or, in the case of some developed countries, speed it up (Remember Donald Tsang's recent exhortation?). Policies concerning such personal decisions have a very, very low success rate. Yet the most populous country in the world managed to institute a one-child policy. That is a breath-taking management achievement.

Diamond brings all this up after listing an array of alarming environmental statistics concerning the country. He hopes the land's historic political unity of the country may save China from lurching into an ecological disaster that could have highly punitive economic effects.

Let's take water. According to Diamond (whose footnotes are annoying vague) China is naturally poor in fresh water, with a quantity per person only one-quarter of the world average. Yet it is permanently ruining much supply. Deforestation and over-planting/grazing has caused tons of stilt to narrow water supply and navigational abilities in the Yellow and Yangtze rivers.

Two-thirds of water required for cities and irrigation comes from ground water, yet wasteful and poor practices is depleting the aquifers, which in the coastal areas allows them to get polluted by sea water, which can lead to the ruination of the source.

Because so little sewage is treated, and because pesticides and factory run-offs flow into the soils, lakes and rivers, precious water sources are under threat from all sides.

This pollution is, of course, a result of breakneck economic growth. With millions and millions of unemployed people, how can the Government put the environment first?

The answer is it cannot -- for now. But when the environmental degradation threatens economic growth, it is possible that the rulers might jump into action. For instance, after the nearly US$30 billion bill for the severe flooding of 1998, which was exacerbated by the erosion of land by over logging, the government banned logging. However unlike so many other developing countries that have banned logging, in China it worked.

If you were an investor in China, it would be worthwhile keeping a close eye on environmental issues. Did you know that the city of Xian in the central Shaanxi province loses about US$250 million a year from factory closures due to water shortages? That is nothing compared to the estimated US$54 billion in annual losses on the national level due to air and water pollution. But how could China continue to gain manufacturing clout if water supply serves as a natural cap on expansion. You can have the most efficient factory workforce in the world, but if you don't have water then that factory ain't gonna work.

At the moment, the Hong Kong-listed manufacturing firms that have their factories spread out across the region tends not to be as productive as those concentrated in China. However in the future, this diversification may turn out to be an advantage. Firms in the south of China, where water supply is naturally more abundant, may also have a future advantage, as may Hong Kong for its proximity to the south. And firms in water-intensive industries, such as textiles, might find themselves at a disadvantage.

This is just one example. The list goes on and on. At the moment, for instance, auto-making remains a pillar industry in China. However if the costs of air pollution rise too high, China could institute the type of policy about-face that so few other countries could hope to get away with. The government could suddenly say, 'Starting today, we're quadrupling the tax on car ownership. We've decided China cannot afford to be a car-owning nation like America.'

And with that, they could possibly cripple an industry.

That is not a prediction! It is just an example of how things could work, given the costs of the environmental depletion and the power of a centralized government in the oldest political unity the world.

It is these types of scenarios investors into the mainland must imagine when deciding whether they want to be in wastewater treatment, or automobiles.

Cathy Holcombe
Quam (IA) Limited

968@ Towncrier --- Bundesbank opposes to IMF-goldsales.#1308834/4/05; 09:12:48!200013,200050,880390/SH/0/depot/0/index.html

Unfortenately an article in German, but I'm going to post it anyway.

SNIP : „Wir haben stets darauf hingewiesen, dass der IWF keine Entwicklungshilfe-Institution ist und dass seine allgemeinen, aus den Währungsreserven der Notenbanken stammenden Mittel nicht für Entwicklungshilfe-Aufgaben eingesetzt werden sollen", zitiert die FAZ aus einem internen Schreiben.

Translation (for what I'm worth) : 'we have continuously argued on the fact that the IMF is not an institution for developping the third world, and that its financial resources, who come out of CB's reserves, are NOT to be used for third world development.'
Towncrier, last week you said : "At times I speculate whether a significant portion of the 500 tonnes of gold that Germany had initially proposed selling under WA II was in fact intended to come from out of its reserve position in the IMF.
With a U.S. veto on the IMF table, it makes sense that Germany would suspend its proposal and reevaluate the situation. If I were Germany, it would indeed be my goal to get my gold out of the non-supportive IMF clutches."

What are your thoughts on the Bundesbank's stance now ?

Jing ZuFelix the Cat - Chinese resources#1308844/4/05; 09:33:48

Felix the Cat -------

Then, on the other hand, consider the dilemma China would be in at the moment if it had, say, a population of 1.7 billion instead of 1.3 billion.


Well, I lived in China for three years. The issue of population is not quite accurate in the amount of Chinese now on the Mainland. The years of my time in the country were 1998 to 2001. During my time there I had many conversations concerning the population. I was told by many Chinese that the quoted population is ONLY the "registered" Chinese people. My Chinese wife has three sisters and a brother. Three of them are the so called "black" children that are not counted in the quotes by the different "experts" that try and come up with their scenarios. These "black" children are not registered and do not get the education and are not able to move about the country without the "proper" registration.
While I was there, the number of "black" (or not counted) people was estimated at 4.5 to 5 million. This was back in 2001, so that would be the 1.7 billion as discussed by FELIX THE CAT in his article about the Diamond book.
I am sure that the bottle cap is about to explode on many things around the world and that this is just one of the catalysts. We are already in the delima spoken of in the above article. Good article about Chinese resources. IT IS TRUE!

Jing Zu

GoldiloxEuro Gold#1308854/4/05; 09:34:53

@ GAB,

The message wasn't about the amount, as I obviously calculated the total incorrectly, but the concept. Sundeck just repeated the questions I have been asking for a few days.

GoldiloxTon or tonne? AV or Troy?#1308864/4/05; 09:40:53

I'm still confused by AV vs. Troy and the use of ton (BR - 2000 lbs) ot tonne (Metric - a million grams) interchangeably, but my stash is still measured in ounces so the calculation is completely stratospheric by my standards either way.
Jing ZuWrong Amount......#1308874/4/05; 09:41:30

4.5 to 5 hundred million that is… I need to review closer prior to responding…. Sorry..

Jing Ju

CoBra(too)Re - China @ Felix#1308884/4/05; 09:50:03

Just a very quick answer to your article.

It all makes sense, though I would warn to jump to fast conclusions.

Just to take one example - Logging - as China was already aware of problem and invited specialists some 20 years ago in order to fix it. From that time on the Austrian University for Agriculture, in particular its forestry division has been asked to study and remedy alternatives.

It seems to be working in test re-foresting areas and I'm assured that this will gather speed and acreage from here on.

After all the Austrians have a similar problem - though no water shortages, but avalanche infested mountain sides - and have mastered the challenge formidably. The Austrian forests are still growing by a wide margin to logging. Long term and sustainable ecological balances will also be introduced to China as a necessity. ... Sorry to say that the US is one of the few western countries not coming to grips with this issue, which effectively will mean a real boost to the economy and not an artificial one as seen on consumerism on debt.

* I feel MK has written a great expose on the 47 ton gold sale of the ECB; A first it seems.
I'd only like to add one thought and that is the Euro was becoming too strong vs the US$ and in particular vs the contending and probably more managed SEA currencies. In order to to bring back some "equilibrium" to the slow erosion of all Fiat currencies, it does seem to me that some more drastic measures where called for.
Even if I don't like it the outcome may have proved the drastic disciplining of the currency markets correct.

We can't have one only economic region carry the brunt of the Dollars and the system based on its reserve capacity to evaporate overnight. We all need some (more) time to re-adjust to the inevitable.
Cheers cb2

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Let us help you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.#1308894/4/05; 11:36:55">Get a head start on the gold market!
KnallgoldTC,#130865#1308904/4/05; 11:54:41

"HOW can you... or WHY would you suggest there is "NOTHING" to store value when it has been so often said by several that it is through our tangibles, and especially our conveniently liquid (marketwise) gold that our value is truly stored?"

You probably misunderstood me here as you confused the different stages.Fiat money,Gold demonetized=FreeGold,with precious Gold being offered as the store of wealth/value.Right,good,agreed,just ahead of us (probably),following a period with endless fiat money creation leading to critical distortions (the true Goldstandard has been abandoned since long).If this FreeGold concept is a bridge (as FOA said),it is a bridge to what?Pure digital globalfiat with even Gold as wealth asset discredited and destroyed,the final victory over Gold?In my post I said no,unlikely,dysfunctional.

So there must be something else coming after the bridge,decades or 100years away,maybe Another try at an honest money promise Goldstandard?Just speculation from my side,I invite you also to give your opinion on that FOA remark about the bridge (and surely I invite FOA himself for a clarification :-)

"It seems to me that the fair (free-) value of gold becomes easily obscured, like underground roots, when a so-called honest system of money promises its users that every resulting monetary leaf on the **widely spreading tree of financial contracts**.."

You seem to mess up the symptoms of the disease with the cause of the disease.But when thinking more about it,you might have a point about the control mechanism not working either then, being prove of a systems dysfunction.But then,no system can replace morals!My point from the beginning...

"Who ever said with absolute authority that a monetary leaf, which has shown itself to be efficient as a unit of account, must also be a worthy long-term storage of value?"

Well,authority or not,we could use our own brains and try to search for reasons why money SHOULD be attributed to value (waste of resources etc).The last decades distortions are surely a lesson in my view.

Like for all things,the proof of the pudding is in the eating'so lets watch the FreeGold evolving-and watch them morals of its operators!I have not discovered a control mechanism on excessive money creation (power!) in it,to the contrary,the more money is being issued,the higher Gold goes,no?The lack of a control mechanism can give negative feedback and leading to a faster degradation of the system.

(good point in your #130877 btw.Who knows,it might have been a test run into the new physical Goldmarket)

TownCrierInflation watch: Oil Tops $58#1308914/4/05; 12:10:31

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices raced to all-time peaks on Monday, climbing above $58 a barrel...

Prices have surged since a forecast last week by Goldman Sachs bank that oil could spike above $100 as global demand growth strains supply capacity.

In real terms, prices were still higher in the 1980s when they peaked at roughly $90 a barrel in today's money for U.S. crude ... using the U.S. Consumer Price Index as an inflation adjuster.

Non-OPEC producers are pumping at full tilt and have little spare capacity to offer the market...

^-----(from url)-----^

A "free oil" market? At the wellhead, oil is effectively a reserve asset, a savings, to its owners -- albeit one that is outside the formal banking system. Thus, although derivative products do exist for oil, given the nature of oil and its usage, as demand outpaces the supply reaching the market, there resides shrinking opportunity for supplies of "paper oil" to be offered to fill the demand. It therefore falls upon "honest" price adjustments to clear the physical market while providing for the most economically effecient allocation of the resources.

Gold owners should take notice and try to bring their market into alignment -- insist on direct possession and upon allocated storage accounts, and thus bring the price-depressive bullion banking flood of paper gold down to an insignificant trickle.


TownCrierGold holding up well despite UK point pressure for IMF sales#1308924/4/05; 12:29:42§ion=finance&src=rss/uk/businessNews

HEADLINE: UK urges IMF gold sales for debt relief

LONDON (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund should sell gold to finance deeper debt relief and diversify its portfolio, Britain says in response to firm opposition to such a plan from Germany's central bank.

But Britain said the IMF was not managing its portfolio wisely.

"Holding over $40 billion (21.34 billion pounds) in gold is clearly not an optimal asset allocation for the IMF," a Treasury spokesman told Reuters.

Germany's government has said it remains open to using the Fund's gold reserves for aid but the Bundesbank said on Monday that the unrealised gains of the bullion were important to give extra security to IMF creditors.

^------(from url)------^

Talk out of Britain, hub of the international bullion banking "cartel", sounds almost desperately strident and irrationally in contradiction to the realities witnessed in the gold and international currency markets, especially in recent years.

It almost begs one to conclude that a lifeboat operation is needed for one or more bullion banks undergoing a crisis of liquidity -- a shortage of available physical gold in a realm of depositors who are becoming wary of holding their paper (unallocated) promises.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial for the REAL deal.


KnallgoldBritain#1308934/4/05; 12:36:28

"But Britain said the IMF was not managing its portfolio wisely."

Right,Britain is the authority in managing particularly Goldportfolios.

Federal_ReservesHedge Hog#1308944/4/05; 12:41:58

Today the USA Dollar getting support while gold/oil hurting. My line in the sand is $420 (long term uptrend line) before I start hedging my physical. Hedge below and remove above.

I'm jumpy as a Mexican Bean in the hot desert sun. All this talk of inflation, fact is the FED is pulling back the reigns. They haven't passed a coupon in 4 1/2 months. Money growth is slowing at the margin. They want to clobber the CRB IMHO, and put it back in the box.

HenriA title? Hmmmm#1308954/4/05; 12:42:36

Thank you, Smeagol and Buongiorno for you kind compliments

thinking about it, I had not gold in mind when I wrote it. I added a touch of the precious at the end to hook all of your attentions...success?!?

Several titles now drift through that which I used to call my mind...

"Love Truth" was first...

"Journey for Wisdom to Recognize Truth" next...

In the context of Gold and what we all have experienced...
"The one (immovable)will become many, and the many will become one" or perhaps "How the meek inherit the Earth"

How about
"Prodigal Goldbug"


TownCrier968 (msg#: 130883), asking me "What are your thoughts on the Bundesbank's stance now?"#13089604/04/05; 13:50:14

It would seem that the stated Bundesbank position is supportive and consistent with my hypothesis that, in essence, the Bundesbank does not feel the IMF to be a good custodian of its gold, and might likely prefer to repatriate Germany's share of it in order to facilitate more direct control of its use and fate.

Is there another interpretation that I'm missing?


PS. Thanks for helping shoulder the load on the weekly updates and interim explanations (such as msg#: 130879) of the eurosystem's consolidated foreign exchange and gold reserve position.

BelgianIMF-Gold#1308974/4/05; 14:30:31

Gold revaluation or sales...or nothing at all !? Funny how the revaluation-option (pricewise) of some of the IMF gold was so suddenly excluded/silenced !? Now, Brittania wants "sales" ...responsible gold-management...dispose it off and basta !? This is what I would like to call "gold-action" !
Note that Germany put an end to the comedy of relief for the poor and actually wished to say : stop abusing other people's gold for dollar supporting (dollar-debt-credibility) purposes. Maybe Germany tries to suggest that "marking gold to market...freemarket" is more appropiate...euh, yes indeed, more responsible !? But this has to be suggested very subtly of course. This is gold-action right in the middle of the kitchen...heating up.

Funny how so many different stocks/reserves of 99,99 gold are priced/booked differently !!!??? Same gold, different ($)prices (UST-ECB-etc). The same was true for the EU-12 before EMU. Now EMU's gold-wealth-reserves are quarterly *** exposed *** to the market. Shouldn't the IMF do the same and *** TRADE *** gold metal (Right Randy :-) !? Trade = buy AND sell !!! But...can the dollar-system live with free gold-trade !? That's what this new episode of gold-action is all about. Further maneuvering towards free-gold-trade. Then Brittania can say, w've been trading...exchanging... gold for units of account as to write off debts. Next time we have a surplus of units of account, we will trade them for gold.
How can one possibly revalue (rather reprice) some part of the 3218 ton gold stash and leave the rest of it on a fixed price !? What a golden mess this is.

Rodrigo Rato (IMF chap) in his speech in Madrid :
- The resilience of the " Global Financial System " (read $-IMS) could be tested...! Hey...we coincidentelly have some gold-action going on in Rato's (IMF) kitchen.
- Orderly currency adjustments...Right Rodrigo, is being arranged.
- The search for yield...They are desperately looking for it, Rodrigo.
- Compression of price-inflation...I like that neutral word "compression", Rodrigo.
- Little cushion for bad news...That's new, Rodrigo.
- leveraged instruments that lack transparency...Common Rodrigo, that's old news, mate.

In the mean time more sour oil is sweetly pumped to deliver into the hungry markets. Why should the oil-owners pump the sweet black gold for nothing but a unit of debt account ?
Is the rising oilprice forcing the euro to bring that "concept" closer to the surface and free gold or face more pain in an already stagned economy!? They can postpone their exchange of dollars for euro as to halt the compensating euro exchange rate. Will see...

Belgian@Randy#1308984/4/05; 14:52:48

Could it be that Germany is looking/maneuvering for a reason (gold-dispute-action) to distance itself ( and the EMU-ECB) from the IMF (protocols) ? What is Wolfie's real task at the WB >>> IMF's daughter ?
TownCrierBelgian, "Could it be that Germany is (etc)...?"#1308994/4/05; 15:42:35

That's certainly my take on it. And it makes perfect sense as the IMF is basically a dollar-framwork-supportive institution, whereas the EMU, by its design, exists a step apart.

As the international monetary system has evolved well-beyond the original framework of the Bretton Woods design and supportive institutions (IMF and WB), it sure seems reasonable that the EMU would look to not only point up the operational contrasts in this inevitable currency battle for monetary allies' hearts and minds, but would also look to eventually withdraw its support and participation within the competing IMF legacy framework.

The move to install Wolfowitz into the head spot at World Bank seems divisive at first blush, and therefore seems to indicate that the U.S. is cooperating in the game of public perception to increase the apparent tension of forcing a clearer choice between our own old style (unilateralism,dollarism) of doing things versus the new style represented by the dissent of "old Europe" as a viable alternative.

Nothing you would want to take to the bank, just a few half-baked thoughts... since you asked for my opinion.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1309004/4/05; 15:44:14">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

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Monday Market Excerpts

April 4 (from Reuters) -- U.S. gold futures closed at a seven-week low Monday after speculators sold as the dollar strengthened on expectations of higher U.S. interest rates. COMEX June contract gold fell $2.30 to $426, its lowest settlement since Feb. 11. The dollar touched a five-month high against the yen and hit a seven-week peak versus the euro, bolstered by an outlook for U.S. interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Weekend comments by St Louis Fed president William Poole, in which he said U.S. growth was strong and the central bank needs to confront the risk of higher inflation, buoyed the buck.

Physical demand has supported gold with its slide to cheaper prices, however, dealers said. Also, rising crude oil had helped offset fears that the Fed could deliver larger-than-expected interest rate increases. U.S. nearby crude hit a record high of $58.28 a barrel Monday... High oil prices raise fears that industrial and economic growth could slow and inflation could rise. Gold has historically been used as a hedge against inflation.

-----(see url for more news, 24-hr headlines)----

Gandalf the WhiteTHANKS to both Sirs Jing Zu and Felix the Cat !!!#1309014/4/05; 16:14:04

"Chinese resources"
Please keep those infomation sources coming !
Is there still a "BAMBOO Curtain" ?

Jing ZuThank you Gandalf the White #1309024/4/05; 17:14:29

Thank you Gandalf the White (msg#: 130901) I appreciate your kind words.

Is there still a "BAMBOO Curtain" ?

Well, yes. I have worked many places in this World. China… Well…... there were and still are problems there. IMHO, No God is the first mistake, oh yea, they have gods, but not the living God (Psalms 115:4-8). I was able to bring my KJB in to the country. No confiscation. The lying is unbelievable. So, it is difficult to know if you are getting a fair shake (in businesses, etc.). Where do their "values" come from? What is the chance that you would be dealing with an honorable man? When I was present in the country, the payoff's were accepted and expected in every form of life. Money talks…. Where is the honor, morals, honesty, trust and all the other traits of men that make doing business free from, at least, this kind of risk? No, doing business with the Chinese is extremely risky. Great food though! What is good for ME was the motto of most. I do not think they have changed much since I was there last.

I did find three in three years that were somewhat trustworthy.

IMHO – They are taking on the US debt because we are buying the products that they are manufacturing for us. It is a vicious circle that will continue and many will be and are being hurt. Many on this forum understand, I am sure of that. I read that IBM is selling their personal computer division for 1.26 billion. I suppose there is not much more we have that hasn't been sold in one form or the other…

Jing Zu

mikalMore casting "inflation" as an oil boogeyman#1309034/4/05; 18:29:51 | The oil price breaks another record
A Titanic Struggle Between Supply and Demand
From The Economist Global Agenda - April 4, 2005

melda laureHenri 130869- a laite te!#1309044/4/05; 19:33:54

Henry, what a spiffy riddle!

But now I bide the quiet light, a hobbit hole, hands held tight. Or in a box, stuffed in old sox. A flower bed to rest my head? Or cold I feel neath lid of steel in hoard of men. And then I wait, for with the rising dawn I'll see the sun, and bright my face and worned out rim will ring upon the barrel head. Then you'll see, I will be free while the whole world will welcome me!

So who gets the chair?

The greatest moral issue of the day is life, and the "cult of death". Bullets kill, terrorists kill, removed feeding tubes kill, and those little suction devices they use on women... etc etc. The problem is that while all these are very "public" they are in fact MINOR compared to the two dangerous problems: Environment, and Money. Fiat represents a clear and present danger just as great as communism and nuclear weapons.

Some time back I attended a lecture of the local geology club: the topic GOLD, and the one (30sec) comment about money the lecturer chose to mention was "For the record, I belive we would be better off on a gold standard, however I do not think we will ever see any change until disaster strikes because THERE IS A TOTAL FAILURE of MORAL LEADERSHIP among all government leaders the world over"

Perhaps I exaggerate. Be that as it may, to whomever receives the cathedrum petri, a request: take a cue from the old carpenter- it is time to have very serious discussions about money, and the fundamental basis of fraudulent international finance. Heaven is not paved with green paper, nor is a just order founded upon fraudulent debts. Just as a permanent peace cannot be made with the lies of communism, so too, this problem will not go away, it will not "get better". Like the one ring, it will corrupt all things it touches until the day of destruction.

TownCrierNew day, other side of the world...#1309054/4/05; 20:20:20

(AP) -- Hong Kong financial institutions, including the stock and gold markets, were closed Tuesday for a public holiday. Trading resumes Wednesday.

^----(from url)-----^

No pressure from the hungry dragon this evening. Will Tuesday's trading day in the U.S. markets mark the final day of the deep bargain? No one knows for sure, and the issue comes down to making your financial allocation decisions based upon what position allows you to rest soundly each and every night.


TownCrier968, here we have it in English -- HEADLINE: Bundesbank opposes Brown's debt relief plans#1309064/4/05; 20:30:31

05 April 2005 -- Germany's Bundesbank has come down against Gordon Brown's debt relief plans. The Bundesbank joined the United States in opposing gold sales by the International Monetary Fund to fund debt relief for poor countries.

Germany's central bank said it was opposed to any sale or revaluation of the IMF's ... gold reserves.

The Bundesbank, led by Axel Weber, is now at odds with the German government over the issue.

It (Buba) said in an internal document:

"We have always indicated the IMF is not a development organisation and that its general reserves, which come from central bank stocks, should not be used for development aid."

...The IMF says it could sell 13 million to 16 million ounces of gold ... without disrupting the market.

Finance ministers from the G7 nations have asked Rodrigo Rato, the IMF's managing director, to report on Mr Brown's proposal this month.

The Bush administration has said it does not favour gold sales.

^------(from url)-----^

At the end of the day, the gold isn't really the IMF's to sell, anyway. It would seem that status quo or, better yet, repatriation would ultimately be the least contentious move available.


TownCrierJapanese dump yen for aussie, kiwi dollars#1309074/4/05; 20:44:06,2106,3237519a13,00.html

05 April 2005 , TOKYO -- Fed up with zero interest rates at home, Japanese households -- the world's biggest savers -- have steadily marched into their banks to swap yen for other currencies such as the Aussie dollar offering much higher deposit returns.

Domestic and foreign banks in Tokyo say demand is just as strong for the New Zealand dollar, known as the kiwi. Some Japanese savers have even reached for exotic currencies like the South African rand.

"Most of our customers are basically yield chasers," said Ken Torii...

Banks have plastered newspapers with double-page ads prodding customers to make the currency switch, with some offering one-month kiwi rates as high as 25 per cent as a gimmick to get people to sign up.

Of course, foreign-currency deposits come with risks. Currencies can be volatile...

Japanese savers still have 25 trillion yen of cash hoarded at home, in many cases literally under the mattress, estimated Hideo Kumano, senior economist...

^------(see url for full article)------^

They may be making the prime mistake of chasing YIELD when they should be seeking VALUE -- i.e., real wealth. In the currency markets, very often a higher yield for a particular currency is simply a petty mathematical factor that attempts to adjust for the market's expectations of a weaker future value of that currency. cf. banana republics and junk bonds with chronically high interest rates (yields) and yet have an ever-fading value. Running fast to stay in place is not a good program to get ahead.

Give yourself a break from the treadmill and choose to consolidate your currency holdings into gold.


TownCrierBrown gets ringing tribute from Brussels#1309084/4/05; 21:02:15,3604,1452302,00.html

Tuesday April 5, 2005
The Guardian

Gordon Brown's stewardship of the British economy yesterday won glowing tributes from the European commission which forecast growth of just under 3% this year and next, continuing low unemployment and public finances under firm control.

The commission's upbeat assessment of Labour's performance contrasted with a slashing of its forecasts for eurozone growth this year and a warning that it could be forced to cut them even further because of rising oil prices, the strength of the single currency and poor consumer confidence.

Its ringing endorsement of the chancellor's performance came just 24 hours before Tony Blair is expected to call a May 5 general election which will be dominated by Conservative charges that the government's spending policies are out of control and will inevitably bring higher taxes.

^-------(from url)------^

"Who's that man in your pocket?"

If the task at hand is to eventually get Britain on board with the EMU, it seems to me that the political trick is toplan well ahead and posture a highly significant public figure as being near the spearhead of the anti-euro camp. Then, when the day of public referendum approaches, he announces that a very careful consideration of the situation has revealed a necessary change in position, thus potentially having the strongest impact of pursuasion upon his long-time allies in the anti-euro camp.

Don't mind me. I'm just fishing.


Gandalf the WhiteOK -- THE US$ chart has now "touched" 85.0 !!! AND NOW ---#1309094/4/05; 22:02:11

The cascading WATERFALLS will return !

SundeckGandalf's "cascading waterfalls"#1309104/4/05; 22:53:35 may be right, oh Wise Wizard, but judging from that whiplashing the dollar got on Friday, it seems to me that someone, "someones" or something is hell-bent on preventing the dollar slipping too far, too fast just at the moment...

I wonder what would the price action in the USDX look like if I went out and poured 47 tonnes of gold into the spot market in exchange for $US? Would I move the dollar by much?

Must try it some day...


Smeagolsssave those poesies!#1309114/4/05; 23:23:53

We humbly hopes (moves?) that the poetry of Henri (msg#: 130869) and Melda Laure (msg#: 130904) never fade, and find a permanent place beside Hai-Ku and other ssuch works, on the Casstle walls.


GoldiloxJapanese Mattresses - msg#: 130907#1309124/5/05; 00:50:46

One wonders how much precious is hidden in those mattresses by wily Japanese who distrust the paper chase.
TownCrierHEADLINE: Curbing inflation makes no sense if growth suffers#1309134/5/05; 01:24:09

April 5, 2005 -- Has anyone else noticed that whether the rand goes up or down, reasons are found not to reduce interest rates?

Inflation makes everyone insecure. But its opposite - too little money - is just as bad. It means we waste resources because there is no money to employ them.

How silly.

Here are some interesting facts relevant to inflation and the supply of money.

==Banks create 93 percent of new money by giving loans while the government creates only the 7 percent comprising new notes and coins. The banks do it for profit, hence the government's difficulty in controlling the flow.

==In two years world hedge fund assets rose from $400 billion (R2.5 trillion) to $1 trillion. They are expected to reach $5 trillion by 2008.

Hedge funds are in effect pyramids of invented money based on speculative loans, having virtually no connection to goods and services.

A small change in interest rates has no effect on money supply, compared with the ballooning of hedge funds - and they make no goods on the ground.

^------(see url for full article)-----^

*POOF!* Choose your savings wisely.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.USAGOLD Market Update -- 04/04/05#1309144/5/05; 01:26:42">gold market update

Client Newsletter 04-04-05.

Now posted. . . . .

European Central Bank gold sales further undermine euro credibility

Excerpt - - -
Leaving aside the ECB's agenda, the sales are not without repercussions. They send the wrong message at the wrong time. Europe and the euro are already reeling under significant alterations to the stability pact which restricted budget deficits and created the impression that the various member states were willing to make sacrifices for the economic stability of the union. Gold was originally added as a component of ECB reserves to give credibility to the new currency and substance to the claim it would become an international rival to the dollar. By selling off gold reserves, the ECB calls that commitment to question and fuels critics who see the euro and the ECB as no better than the dollar and the Federal Reserve. This past Saturday the Financial Times went so far as to say in an editorial that "the euro does not have much to recommend it, other than not being the dollar." Mysterious, ungrounded, seemingly inexplicable and unnecessary gold sales are not likely to alter that assessment.

-- An ABCs of Gold Investing UPDATE - Choosing a gold firm

-- Asia "will retaliate" over Wolfowitz apppointment

Plus more. . . .

BelgianUSAgold Client Newsletter 4/4/05:#1309154/5/05; 02:07:07

The ECB is a stupid central bank and the euro is a bananapeel !? The ECB's agenda is a dodo and doesn't know what message has to be send at what time. The stability pact never was and ECB gold is removed for dollars as a component of the ECB reserves. The euro morphes into a euro-dollar. According to the FT, the euro is in fact already as good as a dollar. Nothing will change this, ever.
Nothing mysterious, ungrounded or inexplicable. CB gold is distributed for the world's women.


PNBA new paradigm.#1309164/5/05; 03:07:21

How do you drive up domestic US interest rates, and allow the USD to decline at the same time?
SpartacusIMF#1309174/5/05; 04:57:12

IMF frets good times has led to complacency
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
April 5, 2005

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Global financial markets might not be prepared for potential shocks like worse-than-expected inflation data, particularly if the era of low interest rates is coming to a close, an IMF report said Tuesday. -

TopazDollar/Oil#1309184/5/05; 05:15:56

Seem at a crossroads here as (to date) Oil is not responding to Bond/Dollar strength. A drop in PoO to sub$45 would be consistent with past action and get things back on an even? keel.

The ECB 47T "sale" is consistent with keeping Gold "mobilised" in what appears to be an ever decreasing liquidity would be expected under a FreeGold regime imo. A thing MUST trade, musn't it!

masBelgian, I feel a crash coming....#1309194/5/05; 06:25:51

Seems that a crash is coming real soon. How in the world can you have a debt the size the USD is trying to hold up and still claim title ship?
This is at first puzzling, but now looks like a crash. You know the feeling, everything is going fine and then something POP's. It's just around the corner.
Good luck all, hope you listened to BB's advise.

Henrimelda laure#1309204/5/05; 07:42:28

't is a gold coin, no?

bright face...worn rim..rings upon the barrel all cash used to and ever should.

Is it not the beauty of a fiat system in its death throes to see how many hidey holes the excess drivel can be channelled into so as not to disturb the "cost" of things. The lastest invention was the stuffing of digital credits into a massive and unregulated derivatives market where they will never again see light of day until that day when things are so far gone that it matters not. A market bubble is also handy...with the potential and daily exterminations of massive amounts of speculative froth...we mourn not for these silent screams of confidences ripped asunder of the small investor chewed and projected toward the spitoon like so much spent chaw...the active ingreedient extracted and channelled to bolster the undesrving of the day in hopes a greater fool will appear.

If gold is not money, why do they keep trying to manipulate what passes for money in the same way that worked for gold when it was called money. If prices become too cheap so that hard working people actually begin to accumulate savings and blur the line between the haves and the have nots, it was thought fitting to withdraw gold from the system and hoard it for awhile. when things return to a clear order, then the spigot could be eased again.

Is it all about maintaining the appearence of order?
Is it about keeping the the occurrence of "new" moneyed wealth channelled back into the same old crooked game? Welcoming them with open arms into the club and lift their wallet while in the embrace?

What fools we mortals be

They treats gold as dust on the wind while they scour the planet for any supply and treat the dust as if it were gold! 'tis the oldest magician's trick in the book. The attention always hooks upon that which moves visibly against the background...ever since that something was food. Aye, we have the eyes of the predator but hearts of pure gold. What an odd concoction of a lifeform.

Who then are the modern day pirates that prey upon moving hoards of what is perceived to be wealth? Perhaps hoards do not move these days lest the earstwhile real pirates find out that it is all a massive presti'digit'ation

Is it now the bankers themselves doing their dastardly pirate deeds to be spun as for the good of the people? The people love order in their is the duty of this banking institution to instill and maintain that order...whatever the cost. Siphoning off the froth of their folly into bottomless pits of iniquity masquerading as equity all to prevent excess spillage lest someone acquire the means to not need to borrow beg or steal

I say the chaos of freedom serves man better...freedom to choose what is considered precious.

One can gain all the the wisdom one needs in the world just by observing tiny grains of sand

HenriSmeagol#1309214/5/05; 07:47:34

You mustn't encourages them...they will only spew more swill :-)
SmeagolToward a Scientific Wealth Standard?#1309224/5/05; 07:48:41

Sssir Knallgold (msg #130858), snip:

"So far, I did not get an appropriate response about why not an honest Goldstandard. I knew this hit the core, but tell Ari never to propose an honest fiat! To be clear, an honest fiat is probably as good as an honest Goldstandard. I have learned that its human to wax endlessly about the systems and its merits, out of opportunism and lazyness as one can circumvent the "what is MY duty". Because in the end its more important, no, essential, that the participants (especially the leaders! thats why they are LEADERS) adhere to the moral principles. Even in communism there were good places to live (in the family, community), where the people stuck to their human duties. On the other hand, in so called freemarkets, no personal freedom could be reached because of moral decadence (and vice versa)."


A fine Post that was! (And others since regarding the topic) Got us seriously thinking yess it did… ssss... thank you all! We will have a crack at part of it, precious, and throw in our two cents worth (now devalued to $1.90 and climbing)... but we will have to get Ragnarok the tutor to help uss craft our thoughts sstraight and clear sso we can write it nice and pretty for you O yess...

[Okay, Smeagol, let's do it.....]

This is all IMHO and FWIW, of course.

A true gold standard would require gold to be an absolute reference which is determined, agreed upon and then forever disconnected from further influence. The meter and the gram are examples of this kind of standard. They are international, knowing no borders. Their definitions are not open to debate, nor are they subject to political wills or the whim of the markets or anyone's opinion. Things are measured against them; they themselves do not change. Rather, they can be trusted NOT to change over one's lifetime (very much like death, taxes and a certain pretty yellow metal we are all familiar with (grin)). How can we get this kind of impervious honesty in a gold standard? What a Question!

Anybody with at least one eye open knows gold is a standard of wealth of sorts, yet no one living has ever known its ‘reference’ value; the past and present struggles surrounding gold have distorted its true worth. Today gold resembles a meter-stick seen through a thick lens - the proportions of the meter-stick are apparently the same, but compressed to a fraction of what they would be if you could see the meter-stick itself. And all the while, the shape of the lens itself (and the meter-stick image along with it) is constantly being fought over and manipulated! Now, why would anybody want to do that?

To become a standard comparable to the meter and the gram, gold would have to be moved from the economic/political arena to the scientific, openly and unanimously declared world-wide as THE sole true-wealth reference against which all other wealth is compared, and once and for all disconnected from economic and political influence and control of any kind, just like any other scientific standard. Only then would the relative values of currencies and monetary policies become transparent and resolve in proper perspective with each other and with goods and services.

While I don't wish to sound pessimistic, I believe we may never see gold achieve the status of a scientific standard until all of society (and political will) takes a miraculous collective leap in understanding concerning it. Good luck!

Scientific standards are internationally accepted, uniform, uncomplicated, not profit motivated, do not affect what they measure, and everyone can use them if and when they have need. There is no reason for anyone to want to avoid them - they render consistency and stability to our knowledge of the world and as such are desirable. Standards serve blindly with impartial justice, giving no one any edge over anybody else. They are not subject to greed. They give no political advantage. Morally they are nonexistent, and perhaps most problematic for our purposes - they are not tangible!

In gold we seek an unassailable wealth measurement standard, but at the same time we must deal with its tangibility. Chew on this paradox awhile.

Is this possible? Can an impartial metric for measuring wealth be established? Can wealth be defined as a unit, a constant? If not, there can never be a standard; only changing frames of reference of variable duration (see History).

In the other hand, if a wealth metric and a unit of wealth can be designed, and actually established, what will be the reaction of those suddenly confronted with the real measure of their ‘wealth’ constructs versus how they look through custom-made rose colored lenses?

Compare the mundane manner in which the meter and the gram are perceived and utilized every day, versus the formidable money/fiat/central bank/bond/stock/carry trade/swap/X/derivative/political cyclone howling around an obscured pile of gold somewhere and you can see we likely have a very rough road ahead. An impartial scientific standard of wealth is anathema in the current climate, but anything less is doomed to fail the test of Time.

I'm no expert by several kilometers, and while this may be too simplistic (I hate legalese, and a standard should be a simple thing), if I were given the task of submitting for consideration a proposal for a scientific wealth standard it might include something like the following…


(1.) True wealth is defined and established as elemental gold, and

(2.) the unit of true wealth, Au, is defined and established as one gram of true wealth, and

(3.) is not subject to law, regulation, tax, fee, duty, or any obligation or liability whatsoever, and

(4.) monetary unit values extant on shaped or unshaped true wealth and its alloys are null, and

(5.) a publicly verifiable mass of true wealth may reference a monetary unit of account through a wealth quotient, where

(6.) the wealth quotient, wq, of the monetary unit so referenced is defined as the Au of said mass divided by the sum of the existing monetary units of account.


…the intent being that every thing tangible (and intangible) other than elemental gold may be wealth, but not true wealth, which is reserved exclusively to elemental gold so that ‘normal’ everyday wealth in any form can then be measured (and fluctuate) against it without prejudice. There can be no speculation on a unit of measurement; gold-referenced currencies would exchange with each other at their wealth quotient ratios – which mean the true-wealth value of a thing is constant world-wide, no matter what currency you use (unless you can get more for it, or have to accept less, as the instant situation dictates). If a country or money authority printed more currency, loan or issue more debt, or added or subtracted gold from its reserves it would become instantly apparent in the currency's value quotient.

There could be omplicarions or flaws I can't see or have not anticipated based on my limitations; this is just a gold Thought experiment that has bugged me for three days, and I'm placing it on the Table Round for analysis (or shredding!) and comment.

Thank you all for the great posts lately – excellent reading, and intriguing. Things are definitely getting interesting!


(I am posting this just before leaving for work, so my replies if any will be delayed.)

DruidThe Invisible Hand (of the U.S. Government) in Financial Markets#1309234/5/05; 08:38:10

Summary: The U.S. government is manipulating all major U.S. financial markets—stocks, treasuries, currencies. This article shows how it is possible and how it is done, why it is done, who specifically is doing it, when they do it, and where they get the money to do it.

Most people probably believe that the major capital markets in the U.S. are basically true markets with, occasionally, maybe very occasionally, a little bit of rigging here and there. But evidence shows that the opposite is the case—the rigging is fundamental with a little bit of true markets here and there. I have discussed how this works concerning U.S. and some other stock markets in an earlier article.[1] Here I will primarily discuss the rigging of currency and U.S. Treasury markets.

Perhaps the main reason for the urban legend that major markets are not generally rigged is that they are assumed to be too big; the millions of independent buyers and sellers, worldwide because of globalization, make effective and sustained coordination impossible. The implicit assumption is that any market could be systematically rigged if it were small enough, or at least small enough at some critical choke point.

Little Markets

In the case of the market for U.S. Treasuries, the Financial Times summed up exactly how small it really is in two major stories, one just under the masthead on page one, on 24 January 2005. One story began, "During the past few years the US has become dependent, not so much on millions of investors around the globe but on a few individuals in a few of the world's central banks."[2] In 2003 these central bankers bought enough treasuries to cover 83% of the U.S. current account deficit, and 86% of those purchases came from Asian central banks.

The two main sources of money for U.S. Treasuries are the central banks of Japan and China. Japan held about $715 billion in U.S. Treasuries, as of November 2004, and China held about $191 billion.[3] All the other nations’ central banks hold altogether, about the same amount again, roughly another trillion.

As the total of all obligations is about $4 trillion, two central banks obviously hold about one quarter of the total. They are in the position to pump or dump the Treasury market all by themselves. They can sell what they have or simply stop buying when the Treasury sells.

Since the money comes from a handful of foreign central banks, the possible rigging of the Treasury market equals the possible rigging of the foreign exchange markets. These central banks have to buy dollars before they buy Treasuries. Even Alan Greenspan has acknowledged that the two go together, admitting that Asian central banks "may be supporting the dollar and U.S. Treasury prices somewhat."[4]

U.S. stock markets are also capable of being systematically rigged, and for the same reason—a handful of players can dominate if they coordinate their actions. The key choke point is in the number of mutual funds, which themselves hold about 20% of all the stock in the major markets. Of the over 8000 all-stock mutual funds, a mere 497 hold roughly three-fourths of the stock. This is easily a small enough number to pump the market, whether through coordinated buying disguised as programmed trading, or simply a follow-the-leader mechanism. All the other thousands of funds and the millions of individuals around the globe putting their money into these markets can do little more than follow the momentum. No major U.S. stock market writer, advisor or player seems to publicly acknowledge this, as far as I know. But the CEO (PDG) of the French insurance giant AXA has acknowledged it: Claude Bebear wrote in his 2003 book Ils vont tuer le capitalisme (They are going to kill capitalism):

"… today, shareholders are relegated to the role of quasi-spectators. The small shareholders

Druid: Mas, they can keep this game going for quite some time. A lot of gold commentary and analysis is leaving out the cooperative component among players both public and private. As long as they can "engineer" and direct dollar usage, they can keep the presses rolling for a few more years until prices in the physical economy become so blatantly high, that even your average business analyst who try's to project and discount something they can't define and value can figure it out.

968@ MK ----- Client newsletter.#1309244/5/05; 10:21:10

Hello Sir MK,

I have some questions about your client newsletter :

1. The title : European Central Bank gold sales further undermine euro credibility. I'm especially interested in the 'further'. Can you elaborate this please ?

2. Don't you think the German refusal to sell gold is of much more significance then the sale of "only" 47 tonnes by the ECB ?

3. What is your opinion on Towncrier's message #130877 on this subject ? Perhaps a delivery of gold to certain 'preferred clients' gives the ECB MORE credibility as a Central Bank !

4. You write : 'What might the gold price have done had the ECB kept its 47 tonnes in the vault ? Would gold have gone through the important $450 figure ? So, if I understand this correctly, your estimation is that this gold is thrown on the market ?
Why do you think this ? What indications do you have that this gold isn't sold to other 'preferred buyers', but instead has reached the market ?

5. What would the market have done without those 47 tonnes ? If this amount is such a problem, what will the impact of the IMF-sales be then ?

6. What's your opinion on the euro-concept in general ? Do you see this like A/FOA as the new reserve- and oilcurrency, or were A/FOA wrong on this subject according to you ?

7. What's your opinion on Sleeper's speech ( concerning gold, MTM,... and given in South-Africa, a land with a lot of in-ground reserves and a privately owned Central Bank ?

I'm looking forward to your insights.
Thanks in advance for your precious time and for this exceptional meetingplace !

Federal_ReservesVisible Hand>#1309254/5/05; 12:10:49

Its a given, the manipulation!

The FED steps in at every Treasury auction to support it. With repo's or outright purchases.

But eventually, if the FED continues to constrict the Money Supply, as they are doing now, some sort of crisis will arrive, then they will loosen up again. IMHO they are attacking the CRB now and supporting the buck, trying to drive commodity prices back down into the box. They are starting to act responsibly now. I fear this is bad for gold.

GoldiloxPolitical Environment?#1309264/5/05; 12:35:29


Two former heads of Russia's natural resources department have been sent to prison for extorting $1 million for a license to mine platinum.

The Khabarovsky regional court sentenced Sergei Krupetsky who headed the Far Eastern branch of the Russian Nature Ministry and Vitaly Sevrin, director of Natural Resources for the Khabarovsk region, to eight and a half and eight years in prison accordingly.

According to Vladivostok News, investigations revealed that $1 million was taken from the Amur Artel of Diggers, a giant east Russian gold mining firm.

Each of the officials will serve the prison time for attempting to extort a bribe and money will be returned to the mining company.


I guess this is what miners term "geoploitical risks".

TownCrierPOLITICAL PRESSURE HEADLINE: Japan decides to keep dollar assets#1309274/5/05; 12:47:35

April 06, 2005, TOKYO: Japan said Monday it would diversify its huge foreign reserves, mostly in dollars, into assets other than US treasury bonds but would not shift funds into instruments in other currencies.

Japan, which holds the world's largest reserves worth $840 billion, wants to send a message that it has no plans to sell off dollar assets in a portfolio shuffle, a finance ministry official said.

In a rare guideline on ways to manage reserves, the ministry said it "will focus on maintaining security of its assets while pursuing higher returns."

"We have no plans to change the breakdown of our holdings, which are dominantly in dollars and used as a source for currency intervention," the ministry official said.

"The US treasuries are the most liquid market, but at the same time we are seeking higher yields within the limit of holding dollar assets," he said.

Last month parliamentary testimony by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi that it was "necessary to diversify investments" in foreign reserves briefly sent the dollar to a low of 103.70 yen.

In February the dollar came under pressure on reports that Asian central banks were converting their dollar holdings into euro assets...

^------(from url)------^

Fortunately for anyone sitting on a pile of U.S. dollars, Japan functions like a subsidiary of U.S.A., Inc. and can be made to say and do anything necessary to support the parent corporation.

Oh happy day. And as Japan buys you time and temporary dollar strength, use avenue to arrive at USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals to convert your papery insecurities into timeless security -- gold.


TownCrierHEADLINE: India has enough forex to buy costly oil#1309284/5/05; 12:57:00

April 5, 2005, NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Mani Shankar Aiyar said on Tuesday the country was equipped to handle the impact of high oil prices and the cabinet would decide whether to raise retail prices...

"Oil prices have increased sharply but we have enough foreign exchange reserves to meet the energy needs of the country," the oil minister told reporters on the sidelines of a conference.

..."Domestic oil prices should adjust to international prices. We have noted that oil prices scenario is likely to remain high," Montek Singh Ahluwalia, deputy chairman of the Planning Commission told reporters late on Tuesday.

Oil is India's biggest import item and higher prices would stoke inflation.

^-----(from url)-----^

India's population buys gold like gangbusters even when inflation is not being "stoked". Does it stand to reason that they will ramp up their gold buying ways if they see their currency is diminishing faster as higher prices stoke the pace of inflation?

More demand-pressure on the physical market must ultimately resolve itself with higher prices.


mikal@Federal Reserves#1309294/5/05; 13:19:03

Re: "They are starting to act responsibly now."
Nothing could be further from the truth, IMO.
Responsible actions would resemble selfless ones,
and that day is much further off than even American
Indian's "seven generations" stewardship can encompass.
Responsible actions would not be bad for gold either.
To say "I feel this is bad for gold" doesn't credit gold's influence in fiscal discipline, which must always return, as it is now in Europe through MTM of reserves. Thus POG's rise and stabilization at fair value, both are positive rather than bad.
Nor does it account for the decades long oversold posture of the gold markets through unsustainable means. This assures an intrinsic, inviolable trend for gold irregardless of
political and economic performance of chief executives and chairmen, dictators or generalisimos.

TownCrierGreenspan: On real oil and "paper oil"#1309304/5/05; 13:22:04

Remarks by Chairman Alan Greenspan before the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association Conference, San Antonio, Texas (April 5, 2005)

... Although the recent price of light sweet crude oil is only a bit above the highs of last October ... the prices of heavier, sour grades, which make up a significant part of the world production mix, are notably higher than in October. Dubai crude for instance, at yesterday's close, sold for more than $12 per barrel above its October price level.

Moreover, although the price of six-year futures for light sweet crude did not match the overall run-up of oil prices last fall, in recent weeks it has largely kept pace with spot prices, leading to record levels for contracts maturing in 2011.

...higher prices in recent months have slowed the growth of oil demand, but only modestly. The slowdown in the growth of demand coupled with expanded production, which the price firmness has induced, has required markets to absorb an increased pace of inventory investment. The markets' response has been a shift in the spread between spot prices and near-term futures that has facilitated inventory hedging. Futures prices for delivery of both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crudes for the summer exceed spot prices. That will likely support increased inventories of crude oil. If sustained, these market technicals could encourage enough of an inventory buffer to damp the current price frenzy.

...Prices of spot crude oil and natural gas have risen sharply over the past year in the face of constrained supply and the firming of overall demand.

...Aside from uncertain demand, the resolution of current major geopolitical uncertainties will materially affect oil prices in the years ahead.

Because of the geographic concentration of proved reserves, much of the investments in crude oil productive capacity will need to be made in countries where foreign investment is prohibited or restricted. Unless those policies are changed, a greater proportion of the cash flow of producing countries will be needed for oil reinvestment if capacity is to keep up with projected world demand. Concerns about potential shortfalls in investment certainly have contributed to current record-high long-term futures prices.

But investment to convert reserves to productive capacity has fallen short of the levels required to match unexpected recent gains in demand, especially gains in China.

...because of inexorably rising demand, improved technologies have been unable to prevent the underlying long-term prices ... from rising.

Concluding remarks

The experience of the past fifty years--and indeed much longer than that--affirms that market forces play the key role in conserving scarce energy resources, directing those resources to their most highly valued uses. Adequate productive capacity, of course, is driven also by nonmarket and policy considerations.

To be sure, energy issues present policymakers and citizens with difficult decisions and tradeoffs to make outside the market process. But those concerns, one hopes, will be addressed in a manner that, to the greatest extent possible, does not distort or stifle the meaningful functioning of our markets. We must remember that the same price signals that are so critical for balancing energy supply and demand in the short run also signal profit opportunities for long-term supply expansion. Moreover, they stimulate the research and development that will unlock new approaches to energy production and use that we can now only scarcely envision.

^------(from url)-----^

What happens when the policy framework is such that monetary resources that might otherwise flow directly into the market for productive use and employment by the physical-owning and producing principals is instead channelled unproductively into self-contained speculative paper gambits and other devices of the financial sector (such as paper gold and paper oil)?

R. HO.#1309314/5/05; 14:38:14

Mr Smee,
The Gold "Standard" we now see and have done for millenia isn't so much one of a "Yardstick" but more a generational transcendent.
Just as Companies, Corps, Gov't and Institutions strive for multi-generational longevity ...and in all but RARE occasions fail, Gold has the wherewithal and characteristics to do it NATURALLY.

The problem at present is best harness this Transendental Standard, Golds usefulness needs to be reappraised.

At present, no-one ...NO-ONE! would opt for such a thing, but time and circumstance MAY, and in all probability, WILL foist it upon us.

Federal_ReservesNew Retirement Strategy#1309324/5/05; 15:18:28

Supreme Court: Creditors Can't Seize IRAs

Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Supreme Court gave bankrupt Americans another layer of financial protection Monday, ruling
that creditors cannot seize their Individual Retirement Accounts.

The unanimous decision shields a nest egg relied upon by millions of people. The justices said IRAs should join
pensions, 401(k)s, Social Security and other benefits tied to age, illness or disability that are afforded
protection under federal bankruptcy law.

Justice Clarence Thomas, writing for the court, said a bankrupt Arkansas couple was entitled to keep more
than $55,000 in retirement savings from creditors. He reasoned that IRAs are benefits tied to a person's age
under the federal statute because a tax penalty is imposed if a person makes withdrawals before age 60.

>> Load up on IRA/401k, borrow like mad to fund it along with other durables up to the max, then go bankrupt just before retirement!

TownCrierWorld Bank's outgoing Wolfensohn says "Ownership is the answer"#1309334/5/05; 15:57:12

KYLE, S.D. — Private ownership around the world is what it takes to ease poverty, outgoing World Bank President James Wolfensohn said as he toured the Pine Ridge Reservation, one of the poorest areas in the country.

"The difficulties we're trying to solve around the world are to be found right here. The first is ownership. The second is lack of recognition."

The industrialized world could learn much from native people, Wolfensohn said.

"I think many of us who've grown up in more of a Western tradition need to stand back in a world in which we're really screwing up and see what the older nations, the indigenous nations, could contribute," he said.

...Wolfensohn, 71, is being succeeded by Paul Wolfowitz, the Bush loyalist and deputy defense secretary who helped plan the Iraq war.

^------(from url)------^

You can be only a party to a contract, you can't OWN it. Likewise, you can't own a dollar, or any other monetary unit of an elastic money supply that swells and shrinks with the issuance of credit and debt as a system of contracts between lenders and borrowers.

If ownership is the answer, and if there is something to be learned by the western world, then for the core foundation of your savings, you must seriously consider choosing gold over contracts -- choosing firm golden property instead of the shifting sands of contracts and elastic money.

It comes down to this: You are either owner of wealth, or you are audience to a contract's performance. You decide which role may serve you best through thick and thin. If you choose "owner", then call USAGOLD-Centennial today for a gold ownership and diversification strategy that's right for you.


OvSI hereby declare the World Government a fact.#1309344/5/05; 16:04:01

The Federal Reserve is the defacto
Central Bank of the World. All other
central banks are just regional sub-
sidiaries and must and have complied
with the New York Institution. That
makes New York City the defacto
Capital of the World, something that
is has proclaimed for some time now.
Most official and unofficial gold is
stored in London and New York City
vaults and will stay there for some
time to come.
The United States Armed Forces are the
defacto policeman of this World Govern-
ment and is to put down regional in-
surrections with unlimited funding
arranged and approved by all relevant
regional central banks.
All national borders are no more than
convenient checkpoints to control the
flow of internationl trade and people.

What is my personal opinion of all this?
I am just an interest and amused neutral
observer fom outer space....Cheers. OvS

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1309354/5/05; 17:01:32">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Tuesday market excerpts

April 5 (from DowJones) -- Comex gold futures put in a low key consolidatory session Tuesday and forged a narrow 'inside day' wherein prices held within the previous day's trading range. The most active June gold contract settled 60 cents higher at $426.60.

Dealers said the quiet session largely reflected the low-key tone of the dollar versus its major rivals through the day, and offered players in the bullion market a chance to let the dust settle following the price retreat seen in gold over the past few days. Since Friday, June gold has dropped more than $6 an ounce from a high of $431.50 to a low of $424.70.

"We think there should be pretty good support around $422, but we can't rule out the chance of a drop to $420 or below if the dollar pushes higher and some of the system funds get coordinated sell signals," argued a dealer with a European bullion trading outfit.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr headlines)----

mikalIMF gold "sales" #1309364/5/05; 17:02:26

From This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. Subject: [GATA] Committee chairman says any IMF gold sales will be stopped in Congress
By John Connor
Dow Jones Newswires
Tuesday, April 5, 2005
WASHINGTON -- Rep. Jim Saxton, R-N.J., chairman of Congress's Joint
Economic Committee, said any movement by the International Monetary
Fund toward gold sales will be stopped by Congress and the Bush
In a statement Tuesday, Rep. Saxton said the IMF is considering gold
sales as a way of covering the bad loans it has made to
improverished borrowers now unable or unwilling to pay them back.
But he noted that congressional approval would be required.
"I believe Congress has an obligation to protect the taxpayers and
reject any proposed IMF gold sales," the congressman said. "The Bush
administration has taken the right position in opposing the IMF on
this matter, and deserves congressional support. There are better
ways of financing debt relief than drilling the taxpayer yet again."

TownCrierRisks for global economy - IMF#1309374/5/05; 17:08:38

BERLIN (Reuters) - High oil prices and growing global current account deficits are an "increasing downwards risk" for the world economy, IMF chief Rodrigo Rato was quoted on Tuesday as saying.

Rato said increased global demand was chiefly responsible for the latest rise in oil prices.

"I'm of the opinion that Germany is well prepared for the future, even if it does still have serious problems to tackle."

Referring to rising deficits in the U.S., and to Asia and Russia increasing their currency reserves, Rato said the world had so far managed to "absorb these imbalances in an orderly way."

Rato also said there was no high inflationary pressure in industrialised countries at present. But he added:

"If however, oil prices, inflation or currency movements cause abrupt changes, the situation could deteriorate dramatically."

^------(from url)-----^

If an economic or financial situation or system "deteriorates dramatically", would you rather be a party to affected contracts, or owner of hard assets?

Choose gold.


GoldiloxWorld Gov't#1309384/5/05; 17:17:40

@ OvS.

Careful with that "World Gov't" stuff, or some might lump you in the conspiratist camp with us left-fielders. LOL

Gandalf the WhiteToward a Scientific Wealth Standard?#1309394/5/05; 18:31:36

Smeagol (4/5/05; 07:48:41MT - msg#: 130922)


Thank you all for the great posts lately – excellent reading, and intriguing. Things are definitely getting interesting!


(I am posting this just before leaving for work, so my replies if any will be delayed.)
OK -- Let's see --
Sir Smeagol leaves for work at 0750 MDT !
WOWSERS -- Does poor ol'e Sir Smeagol have to go THAT far for his GOLD fishes ?
I am working on a solution, Sir Smeagol !

OvSGoldilox#1309404/5/05; 19:16:39

It would be hard to pin me down
one way or another in the long
run, because I like to dish it
out "right" and "left".
When things get a bit dull for
me the enemy is "I" not "Them".
I like gold for its luster,
silver for its understated ele-
gance. (Had to put this last in
to make this post relevant):-)

MKResponse to 968. Thank you for the excellent questions.#1309414/5/05; 19:28:14

Some answers:

1. The title : European Central Bank gold sales further undermine euro credibility. I'm especially interested in the 'further'. Can you elaborate this please ?

MK: France and Germany's push to rewrite the stability pact already hurt the euro for the long term. It is the proclivity of politicians to run deficits. Once the euro-politicos broke the boundaries of the stability pact, it opened the door to greater deficits, a weaker currency, inflation, higher taxes -- the gamut. Even members of the ECB board (out of character) criticized the politicians for rewriting the pact because they understand the long term implications.

2. Don't you think the German refusal to sell gold is of much more significance then the sale of "only" 47 tonnes by the ECB ?

MK: Yes. But is the ECB sending a message that if you don't sell, we will? To the ECB's credit, it said that it was done with sales for the rest of 2005 CBGA year, but I think this was a test to see what the reaction would be. One has to ask if there is a conflict between the nations states view on gold and the ECB's? Before the 47-tonne gold sale, that was not a question. Now it is. We are groping in the dark here because the ECB, despite its signing of the CBGA and its implied transparency in gold transactions, conducted the sales then gave no indication as to why the sale was conducted in the first place and secondly how the gold was disposed.

Europe, as you know, is in the midst of defining itself. It is attempting to construct a union that would put it on the world stage as a viable contender to the United States, Russia, China and Japan. There is no question that Europe can attain its goals, but the Union is flawed and weakened by the lack of a real political union that can act decisively in the domestic and foreign arena. At the end of May, France will decide whether or not to accept the new constitution. If put to a vote today, the polls say that the constitution would fail by a wide margin.

It is not unreasonable for those being asked to join the union to question whether or not it is in their best interest. In Europe today, there are Federalists and Anti-Federalists just as there were at the founding of the American Republic. (I should point out that an anti-federalist is not necessarily against a federal government, he or she simply desires to limit the power of the federal government. There's a distinction there. Thomas Jefferson, for example, was an anti-federalist who believed that the power ran in a line from the bottom to the top -- the lowliest citizen to the president. There were others who believed differently.)

Is it reassuring to the Anti-Federalists that the union's states cannot stick with budget agreements made upon convergence? Wouldn't there be some who might say, "Wait a minute. If we transfer the power of government from our individual state to Brussels, will we not lose some control over our lives in the bargain? And are we transferring this power to a group capable of keeping our quality of life intact? Are we simply inviting ever larger budget deficits, currency printing and higher taxes?" These very same questions are what dominate the thinking of the British whenever the Blair government pushes for discarding the British pound and going with the euro. There is this question of giving up the power of currency issuance. If you say, "Yes, I will give it up," the follow-up is to "what" and under "which circumstances." To me that's a natural progression.

When the Federal central bank sells gold contributed by the various states upon convergence for reasons no one can ascertain, does that not send the wrong message? (I refer you to Senator Paxton's lucid reaction to IMF sales below). Once we transfer power (assets) to the Federal government, some will ask, do we lose control over it?

You are right. Forty-seven tonnes in the greater scheme of things is a small amount, but the fact that the ECB actually sold this gold out of the blue and then explained nothing is symbolically significant.

3. What is your opinion on Towncrier's message #130877 on this subject ? Perhaps a delivery of gold to certain 'preferred clients' gives the ECB MORE credibility as a Central Bank !

MK: Let me say first that Randy and I don't always agree and I do not demand agreement with me among the terms of engagement. We do not demand unanimity of opinion at USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals. We both enjoy a good give and take and have had many long and interesting discussions over the years. It is because we believe in the value of public discourse that we started this forum.

By preferred client, I assume you mean the national central banks. If it was distributed on a pro rata basis to all who contributed then I would say it gives the bank an aura of "fairness", but not necessarily "credibility" But why send gold back when its sole purpose in the first place was to give the euro credibility? Take away the metal and you take away the credibility. If it went to one bank -- let's say Germany or France -- the ECB would be accused of playing favorites. If the preferred clients were bullion banks meeting depositor demands -- or to keep the gold liquidity pipeline full -- I would say that it loses credibility.

In the end, I believe in free and unfettered markets as the best arbiter of human action. I believe in states' rights and the devolution of power. History has shown in the past, and I believe is about to show again that the more the federal-official sector interferes in natural economic processes the greater the problems down the road, and its always the taxpayers who are called upon to pay for the mess. Better to take a small hit now, then ratchet the problem proportionately worse through government, or quasi-government interference. Once again, I think Senator Paxton speaks for many in his response with respect to the IMF below.

4. You write : 'What might the gold price have done had the ECB kept its 47 tonnes in the vault ? Would gold have gone through the important $450 figure ? So, if I understand this correctly, your estimation is that this gold is thrown on the market ?
Why do you think this ? What indications do you have that this gold isn't sold to other 'preferred buyers', but instead has reached the market ?

MK: If one assumes a gold shortage, one must also assume that the party needing the gold would have been forced to the open market with the consequent effect in the price. I never said the gold was thrown on the market. It might have been sold to preferred buyers. The real question is "Who are these preferred buyers?"

5. What would the market have done without those 47 tonnes ?

MK: See above.

5A: If this amount is such a problem, what will the impact of the IMF-sales be then ?

MK: At the moment, I do not believe there are going to be IMF sales. These are being pushed for by the UK, Gordon Brown and his Treasury Department. The United States is opposed and with its veto power it can keep the gold from moving. We must keep in mind that it isn't the United States that has been a gold seller in recent years. The bulk of the gold liquidity has come from the European banks. Now that valve is shut -- or pretty much shut. That I believe is the source of the push for IMF gold. I do not go along with the discussion that the UK is being used as strawman for the U.S. The U.S. could very well be anti-IMF sales because of the strong production in this country and the power of Western U.S. senators with the White House.

If there are IMF sales, I believe the contributors should be offered their gold back on a pro rata basis on a right of first refusal basis. Should that right of refusal be passed on, a natural market would be the Pacific Rim including China.

6. What's your opinion on the euro-concept in general ? Do you see this like A/FOA as the new reserve- and oil currency, or were A/FOA wrong on this subject according to you ?

MK: I believe the euro is a competitor to the dollar, but it will not be a replacement for gold holdings in the private portfolio. It is still a fiat currency and if it existence as a competitor to the dollar doesn't address some of the primary political problems associated with the European Union. I discussed this with FOA and Another a long time ago. Not much has changed. Machiavelli commented once that history repeats itself because the passions and beliefs that marked one era are present in all eras, therefore human political and economic institutions can be expected to make the same mistakes repeatedly. The euro, like the dollar, is a currency issued by human beings. It is subject to error. That is why gold, which is not issued by human beings, is the greater repository of wealth. I understand the value of the euro as a precursor to gold value, but I don't think its presence is necessary for gold demand to continue gathering steam. My quarrel with the euro is the same quarrel I have with the dollar, the yen and the Malaysian ringit for that matter. They are the spawn of human political institutions as such have two strikes against them before they get in the batter's box. By this I don't mean to offend anyone. The euro will play a significant role in the transition into a two or three currency reserve world.

But, back to the EU . . . . . Europe at the moment is a nation without a governing political document. It has a central bank that issues a currency without political protocols - essentially a currency without a country. I see that as a disadvantage, not an advantage. Until that is addressed, it will be a competitor but only in terms of default. Under current conditions, I could easily see the euro simply becoming Dollar Lite in international markets. But that's probably acceptable from the European point of view. It is not interested in sponsoring the chief reserve currency at this time, but more a shared responsibility concept with the dollar. I think this is a G-7 understanding already agreed to tacitly.

Isn't it odd to you that no one in Europe has bothered to ask what the ECB was hoping to accomplish by selling off gold that the various states contributed upon convergence? How did it get within the ECB's authority to do such a thing? These are questions that would be asked by an American congressman or senator, but devoid the political institutions to raise the question, most sit back waiting for someone else to ask the tough questions. In the United States it would become a matter of constitutional authority. In Europe there is no constitution, and that's probably why there isn't denouncing the ECB sales like Senator Paxton (NJ) did today when he lambasted IMF sales, as follows:

"A recent IMF report has recommended gold sales as a sound way of
financing the loans the IMF has extended to overburdened poor
countries that are not now in a position to repay," Saxton
said. "This is an especially attractive option for the IMF because
the gold on its balance sheet is greatly undervalued.

"However, the potential profits on IMF gold sales rightfully belong
to the original donor countries and their taxpayers. Thus, these IMF
gold sales would amount to a hidden appropriation from the donor
countries that were the original source of the gold.

"I believe Congress has an obligation to protect the taxpayers and
reject any proposed IMF gold sales. The Bush administration has
taken the right position in not supporting IMF gold sales and
deserves congressional support. There are better ways of financing
debt relief than drilling the taxpayers yet again."

7. What's your opinion on Sleeper's speech ( concerning gold, MTM,... and given in South-Africa, a land with a lot of in-ground reserves and a privately owned Central Bank ?

MK: Not familiar with it.

Thanks, 968. An interesting set of questions.

I'm looking forward to your insights.
Thanks in advance for your precious time and for this exceptional meeting place !

OvSGoldilox#1309424/5/05; 19:35:01

Just to get you off the LOL
I have to tell you, that you
consealed gold-hating lefties
are just a front for the in-
sider conspirators. Ha! I've
got you...Gold is forever.OvS

Chris PowellWhy is the U.S. opposed to sale of the IMF's gold?#1309434/5/05; 19:56:20

Presumably the Federal Reserve and
the Treasury Department have been
storing it in the United States.
Could it be that the stuff is
actually gone already -- leased,
swapped, or sold -- and that nobody
bothered to tell the IMF and its
member countries?

OvSChris Powell#1309444/5/05; 20:02:56

Presumably, the British, who are
pushing for such sale, of all
people, would know of such a state
of affair?

OvSHey, OvS#1309454/5/05; 20:21:48

I don't know if I can agree with
your multi-postings. But your
if not original, is VERY NICE.
The Wizz.

(I better get the "L" out of here
before I get kicked out... :-)
Back to my poetry. Cheers. OvS

Dollar Bill.,.#1309464/5/05; 22:13:39

chicken little gazette.
Agin. The bees in the us are plagued by a mite that arrived in 88 or so. The scientists say either the mite has gotten used to the pesticides or it is carrying a stronger virus, whatever, the bees are dying this year at rates that the us govt bee division call "catastrophic". Hopefully they dont just throw that word around lightly. Assuming not, bees are also running into other troubles besides the mite. Florida is a place that in the winter many of the beekeepers in the east us take thier bees so that they can repopulate themselves up to about 35,000 per hive. The 3 hurricanes effected the citrus groves in such a way that beekeepers say "nothing is happening" as far as seasonal repopulation goes.
This will impact this years crops as it turns out, that agribusiness works by having guys bring thier bees on trucks from one crop to the next. One third of our food is bee needy. One year or 2 down the road, this could go very wrong. My thought was, if the US was not a big food provider, would we discover that the globalists in many countries put up with the US to some degree because the US has/had? the long term resource of food production to trade when our manufacturing finally is basically gone?
If the US, due to its bee issue, becomes a large contributer to global famine, to whatever degree, does supporting the us ability to just print money to buy the worlds food start to become a globalist deal breaker?
At that point, do we go to a fast run to the money rain allowance system and share the famine?
Granted, this IS chicken littleish, but the bee issue IS true, and this mite, having developed resistance to pesticides, is like avian bird flu to the bees.
Anyway, you never know what storms may come, and from what direction, in the effort to build the globalist thingee.
Whodathunk the birds and bees would be a factor?

Bizarro-Greenspan"Could it be?",asks Chris Powell#1309474/5/05; 23:12:27

"I believe the contemporary events in the gold market,the setup of the LBMA (88) and the high leverage gold trade as well as the first funding and initial production from Barrick Gold were made by the same people for the same sort of purposes. They feared a future with high gold prices where they had no gold. They proceeded to ameliorate this by attempting to raid the public's gold hoards, both private and in government hands. Barrick and to some extent Anglogold (a-la Coca Cola in the "Teddy's" orange juice company story) were to be the vehicles for the operation of an artificial gold market where uncertain future production by these companies was traded for gold borrowed from gold depositors. In order to get the depositors to lend rather than sell covered calls (which was done for over a decade by that time), it was necessary to find a source of gold lending that was willing to take a below market rate and thus allow them to undercut the call premiums the gold account holders could get. This source had to be central banks.

This ties in with my suspicion that the New York Fed's earmarked gold owned by various European and other governments and government sponsored private interests, is held "hostage".I found it hard to believe that the US would let France and Britain, the secondary losers of WWII to keep any of their gold, and to take no reparations from Germany and the other Axis powers. I was certain that the French and the Brits would be charged the cost of bailing them out one way or another, and that Germany and Japan would be bound in a similar way to have no recourse against a US demand for reparation. I found such a mechanism was available through the auspices of the Fed's earmarked gold accounts where the gold redeemed by the French and Germans sat along with Dutch, Belgian, French (mostly in Canada, but a great portion of which was transferred to the US) and Brit gold from early in WWII and the gold sold by the London Gold Pool and the IMF to governments,the portion sold to private investors having left the US. This gold could have been seized under any pretext by the Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund ,which still claims authority to do so.

I think that it is probable that the agreements governing this gold's disposition require that the only way it leaves the Fed's vaults is if it is sold on the spot market. That would operate effectively as a reparations program for WWII.

With central bank guarantees at hand, they could proceed to obtain gold to fill delivery demands for some depositors by borrowing from other depositors: showing them the central bank gold certificates lent them, and quoting the low call premiums they are getting. The gold depositor got a low rate on his now fractional account, and the gold was displaced into the market. As the low gold price brought one producer after another into bankruptcy or distress, the large hedged producers Barrick and Anglogold should have been capable of picking them up at a great discount. But having had mediocre operational performance and market preference for unhedged miners with a defacto 2-5% cost of capital, they managed to scrape up only a minor portion of the industry (e.g. Homestake)."

From ORO,a long,long time ago.

Anything is possible,and ultimately,justifiable,as long as there are innocent victims that need to be protected from the ravages of an "out of control/free market".

A free market that could blow back on it's creators' ultimate designs of benevolent stability in their precious faith-based monetary system.

Great Albino BatCalling Brian W. Pascal....B-R-I-A-N.. Yo, BRIAN!!#1309484/5/05; 23:33:25

Get your A$$ on over here and liven this place up, Will ya?

They don't wantcha over there no mo, no mo!


Gandalf the WhiteThe "FIRST" Waterfall ! (US$ Chart of Tuesday)#1309494/6/05; 00:19:07

Well they managed to make 85.12 as the TOP, before the start of the fall !
The 84.50 level is the important one on WED.
Shall it fall off the CLIFF again ?

968@ MK#1309504/6/05; 03:47:02

Thanks for finding time to answer me !

Just two remarks :

1. You write : "It has a central bank that issues a currency without political protocols - essentially a currency without a country. I see that as a disadvantage, not an advantage."

Let me give you some thoughts of Hans Tietmeyer, former Bundesbank President on this matter :

"The euro is intended to be a denationalised currency. In precise terms, that implies two characteristics:
· the euro as a largely borderless currency,
· and the euro as a largely depoliticised currency.
The euro is intended to be a borderless currency in the sense that the national borders within the supranational euro area will have no bearing either on the fixing of monetary policy or on the use of the currency. It will be the common currency of all the participating countries, and for that currency, there will be only one single,
supranational monetary policy, even if the national central banks will still be responsible for its implementation.
Moreover, the euro will provide a crucial boost to the opening-up of borders across markets and economies in Europe which was already initiated by the Common Market. In
monetary union, the participating countries can no longer adjust the exchange rates against each other.
This means that what were once major barriers for entrepreneurs and consumers have now been eliminated: the exchange-rate risk, conversion and transaction costs. However, one means of protection will also disappear -- and for ever - namely, exchange rate adjustments as the former last resort in the event of declining competitiveness or radical structural changes.
At the same time, the euro has also been designed as a depoliticised currency. The European Central Bank is, by intention, to operate independently of political influence exerted by governments, parliaments and other European institutions. It has a clear mandate to safeguard the value of money. At all events, that is its primary task.
The monetary system is hence removed from the realm of everyday policy-making. The objective of monetary stability is protected in a particular manner. And policy makers cannot subordinate it to other objectives -- subject to expedience, the political leaning of the government, or election dates. By choosing that structure, the signatories of the Treaty made a conscious decision to continue a tradition which, especially in the postwar era, has become established in a number of countries in Europe whose currencies have shown a particular degree of stability.
Even countries which, for a long time, had tied their currency regimes much more closely to everyday policy-making have evidently come to recognise the advantages of
unpolitical monetary systems in the run-up to Maastricht. This does not, of course, rule out the possibility of the earlier tradition occasionally rearing its head in some isolated issues. Denationalisation and depoliticisation, though, are certainly linked in a particular fashion.
At all events, removing monetary boundaries in any form calls for a modicum of matching depoliticisation.
This is true not just for the ultimate form in which boundaries are removed, monetary union -- but it is particularly applicable to it. But even the first steps in removing boundaries -- such as the transition to
convertibility -- reduce the leeway for a monetary regime which is simultaneously intended to serve other political ends."
"This uniform strategy and this common orientation can only be a currency which is largely depoliticised, especially in a supranational monetary union in which the basic structures of the nation state remain. If monetary union is not embedded from the outset in a largely homogeneous and
political union which is constituted along the lines of national government, but is founded instead on the basis of different nation states, that supranational monetary policy can only be largely unpolitical, meaning disengaged from the political influence of nation states which goes
beyond the legal mandate to safeguard the stability of the currency. This is particularly valid as long as there is no all-encompassing decision-making process at the European level -- and that will probably not exist in Europe for a long time to come."
"I therefore believe that an independent central bank tends to be subjected to closer scrutiny by the public than some areas of policy. And this is as it should be. After all, a
depoliticised currency is a currency which has remained as close to people as a borderless currency."
"But the crucial point is: a borderless currency must go hand in hand with a depoliticised currency. As a denationalised currency, the euro needs both elements."
"The century began and will end with a denationalised money. At its beginning,there was the gold standard. At its end, there will be the euro."
"And currency was not entirely depoliticised in the Bretton Woods System, either. It was not only determined by the dominant position of the United States and whatever political views prevailed there at any given time. Many capital controls also mostly concealed differing
political strategies and preferences. In the long term, the monetary system created after World War II was not
depoliticised enough in order to keep pace with the increasing denationalisation of currency brought about by increasingly efficient and powerful international financial markets."
"And, above all, by the mid-1960s onwards, the US dollar, the key currency, was increasingly failing to fulfil its role as an objective point of reference for stable money --
a role which only an unpolitical currency could have performed."
"The outcome has left no room for doubt in economic terms. Countries with unpolitical money have not only had lower inflation rates, but also less unemployment. And, on
the whole, they were also able to handle the oil shock and the unpredictability of the US dollar and other currencies much better. Besides, they were able to acquire an increasingly high stock of confidence on the part of the financial markets, resulting in relatively low capital market rates."
"As a denationalised currency, the euro will be embedded in a political Europe which is still largely characterised by national structures. As a borderless currency, the euro will encounter bordered national economic, social and tax policies still searching for answers to the borderless economy. And, as a depoliticised money, the euro will encounter a political reality in which some people and groups still expect enormous, and fundamentally unrealistic, favours from the welfare state."

2. It's strange to me that a gold authority like you is not familiar with Sleeper's speech. This is (one of) the first speech(es) from a leading CB official that favorises CBgoldholdings and MTM-strategy, and above all a direct continuation of FOA writings that are posted on the USAgold--The Goldtrial, and explained by the Head of the Banking Department of the Bank for International Settlements. If you find time to read the speech, can you please share your comments on this with us ?

krashOT Scenario: The Great Energy War#1309514/6/05; 05:18:37

Here are excerpts from a fascinating energy war scenario in an article by John Stanton FYI: The Treaty of Jakarta, signed in 2045, brought an end to the global conflagration that was World War III. That conflict saw the US, Pakistan, Israel, Japan, Taiwan, England and Australia in bloody conflict against China, India, Russia, France, Germany, Iran, Venezuela and Brazil. Other nations joined the fray and formed uneasy alliances with one side or the other. For example, Vietnam lent its considerable knowledge of combat against US forces to China. Mexico took sides with the US and put its population surplus at the disposal of the US military apparatus. The war killed billions, put to waste and made uninhabitable sizeable areas of the globe, and led to a global pandemic that killed millions more.........By the 1990's, securing energy resources and limiting the growth of the economies of China, India, Russia, Brazil and Venezuela became paramount. Even with the US colonization of Iraq in 2005, there was not enough oil & gas to satisfy both US needs and those of the high growth nations. The historical record shows that the resource domination was the real goal of the disingenuous US War on Terror. And with the US removing itself from international diplomacy and treaty, and refusing to share the wealth, world war was just a step away. With this backdrop, the US reserved the right to invade oil producing and transit nations, threaten countries for forward basing rights, and demonize and destabilize irregular nations like China, India and Russia (the term "irregular warfare" appeared during this time).
.............The US invaded portions of China and Russia through the "Stans", and attacked Iran from Iraq and Afghanistan. It convinced Pakistan to invade India, and Israel to secure Saudi Arabia, Syria and Kuwait. England was left to deal with the continental European powers France and Germany. From its bases in Costa Rica, Colombia and Honduras, the US moved swiftly to take the oilfields of Venezuela. The plan called for shock and awe and submission. But the world had not sat idly by as the US schemed. US and allied forces were sucked in, encircled and forced, in many cases, to surrender. They were trapped in the seas of indigenous populations who gave them no quarter. Buoyed by initial successes, the US and its allies never saw the conventional counterattack that followed coming. It was unlike any the world had seen.
Suffering defeat and stalemate on the conventional battlefield, the US and its allies resorted to the HNO solution (Hiroshima-Nagasaki Option) on the pretext that millions of lives—mostly American--would be spared. They fired nuclear weapons on forces overrunning the US and its allies on the Asian continent and in North America, specifically Alaska. The response was swift: a nuclear counterattack eliminated the remaining US Carrier Groups, US refining capacity and Taiwan as an independent entity. Pakistan, being overrun by India, opted to switch sides. Japan and Australia did the same moving to assist the anti-US coalition. As the nuclear portion of the conflict cooled, the US realized that it had literally run out of gas. The domestic front was itself a war zone with well-armed American guerilla groups openly fighting the forces of the US Northern Command, Homeland Security and local police. Everywhere around the world the US was in retreat. England was in talks with France and Germany for terms of surrender. Israel was in retreat and had one foot in the ocean. The world's water and air supply were contaminated and billions of carcasses—human and otherwise--lay rotting. Disease and malnutrition would take hundreds of millions more. All this for oil & gas that, for the most part, has been depleted.

John Stanton is a Virginia based writer specializing in national security and political matters. He is the author of America 2004: A Power But Not Super and co-author of America's Nightmare.

BelgianExactly 968 !#1309524/6/05; 05:18:57

The euro-concept : A *** DEPOLITICISED ***, *** DENATIONALIZED ***, *** BORDERLESS *** currency...with a supranational monetary policy that can only be *** UNPOLITICAL ***.

This comes from unser Bundesbank !!!

This concept is AS GOOD AS GOLD in a modern, new version.

Duisenberg (Aachen 2002) : The "euro", probably more than any other currency, represents the mutual confidence at the heart of our community. It is the FIRST currency that has not only severed its link to GOLD, but also its link to the nation-state. It is not backed by the durability of the metal or by the authority of the state.
Indeed, what Sir Thomas More said of GOLD five hundred years ago - THAT IT WAS MADE FOR MEN AND THAT IT HAD ITS VALUE BY THEM >>> APPLIES VERY WELL TO THE EURO !

How can the euro-currency lose credibility when incorporated in such a golden concept, specified by H. Tietmeyer ? There is not much mysterious or inexplicable about the GOLD-TUMULT (Action) of the past 6 years. EURO FREEGOLD is in the process of being build.

Mr Roth >>> Demonitisation of GOLD in Switzerland !!!
Mr Masuru Hayami >>> Meaning of IMF reform !!!

Just like oil,...euro-gold will be """ depoliticized """ !!!
This doesn't happen overnight and goes with ups and downs, big and small ones.
Of course, the existing $-system (its loyal supporters) wich to keep all the builded "political" links intact. And that is exactly why the *ECB* should be ridiculed. Faites vos jeux, messieurs, dames.

968ECB's weekly financial statement.#1309534/6/05; 07:59:59

In the week ending 1 April 2005, the net increase of EUR 3.2 billion in gold and gold receivables mainly reflected quarterly revaluation adjustments, after sales of gold by two national central banks of the Eurosystem (consistent with the Central Bank Gold Agreement of 27 September 2004).

The net position of the Eurosystem in foreign currency increased by EUR 5.5 billion to EUR 159.3 billion. The increase was due mainly to the effects of the
quarterly revaluation of assets and liabilities, while customer and portfolio transactions carried out by
Eurosystem central banks in the period under review resulted in a decrease of EUR 0.2 billion.

Gold and gold recievables : 128,058 billion euros
Net foreign exchange position : 159,3 billion euros
So, even after a sale of 47 tonnes of physical gold, due to the MTM-strategy the ECB's gold position INCREASED to 128,058 billion euros. Isn't this a great world !

Gandalf the WhiteGREAT JOB, ESF !!!#1309544/6/05; 08:34:40

Pushing WATER up-hill is hard work -- BUT, it only makes for a BIGGER WATERFALL soon !

GoldiloxGold Story coming up on CNBC#1309554/6/05; 09:21:03

Sure was pretty inventory footage on the tease. Zowie!
GoldiloxThe "Too Big to Fail" Problem#1309564/6/05; 09:54:54


Alan Greenspan, who is in our "Economic Hall of Fame" for being the bubble-maker of all time, made what is really a very interesting admission in testimony today: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac he figures should have their portfolios limited because they are getting just too big. In other words, if either one of them ever actually tried to collect on government guarantees, the government would probably not be able to pay off on all claims. He Who Prints telling CONgress:

"When these institutions were small, the potential for such risk, if any, was small. Regrettably, that is no longer the case. From now on, limiting the potential for systemic risk will require the significant strengthening of GSE regulation and the GSE regulator. Determining the suitable amount of capital for Fannie and Freddie is a difficult and technical process, and in the Federal Reserve's judgment, a GSE regulator must have as free a hand as a bank regulator in determining the minimum and risk-based capital standards for these institutions. "

Not that the Fed has clean hand: M-1 is up 3.9% compared with year ago figures, while M-3 is up 5.5% (unadjusted) and we expect big spikes when the next figures are released late this month.

While this is grabbing the headlines, we notice that there has been a real uptick in traffic on the web about supposed moves coming from FDIC to reduce coverage from $100,000 to something less. Moreover, we've heard that similar moves are underway in Japan and elsewhere. None of this is surprising, because we think most sober regulators can spell systemic risk - and the markets although we may have a couple of up days left, should head down late this week and next.


Sir AG is telling us that Fannie and Freddie are looking unstable, and rumors suggest FDIC is at cliff's edge as well. Meanwhile, CNBC is running stories on gold as "portfolio insurance". Next story was the 31% increase of "pork" in Congressional allocations while they are jaw-boning about reining in unnecessary spending. The craziest one is a $100,000 allocation to the Tiger Woods foundation? Huh, he can't afford to fund his own charities?

What is "insuring" your wealth? Got Gold?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Since 1973. Proven Reliability, Longevity, Quality and Professionalism ---- Invest with Confidence!!#1309574/6/05; 11:56:09

Great Albino BatBelgian: Most interesting words from Tietmeyer, quoted by 968#1309584/6/05; 12:17:11

As you say:

"The euro-concept : A *** DEPOLITICISED ***, *** DENATIONALIZED ***, *** BORDERLESS *** currency...with a supranational monetary policy that can only be *** UNPOLITICAL ***."

Interesting and pretty words, like "Egalité, Liberté, Fraternité".

Just as pretty, and just as meaningless pretty words.


In another post by 968, we read of the most recent position of reserves by the Eurosystem:

"Gold and gold recievables : 128,058 billion euros
Net foreign exchange position : 159,3 billion euros"

NOTE the words "gold receivables". That is not gold, it is PROMISES that gold will be returned.

More games, in other words. The gold is not there! Not all of it, at any rate. How much is gone, not to return except at a price which will bankrupt the entities that promised to return it? Perhaps a large percentage of it, if the statement of the Bank of Portugal, some time ago, is representative of other C.B.s situation - and why should it not be representative?


A paper currency is a human construct, and as such, can be modified, and will be modified, by those who created it. It cannot possibly be "denationalized", "depoliticized" or "borderless".

Only a money which is beyond the possibility of human creation (beyond the new production from mining by humans) such as is the case with GOLD, can come near to being "depoliticized" and "denationalized" and "borderless". Only NEAR TO, not absolutely so! Our human world is not perfect.

The Euro is the nice new girl on the block, while the cousin dollar is the old whore. But, the new girl will follow the steps of the cousin. A democratic world will not stand for politicians who create supposedly rigid institutions. A democratic world will not stand for virgin institutions, it wants prostituted institutions to satisfy its unlimited desires.

We shall watch the drama unfold.

Let us all take advantage of the time during which we are being granted such dirt cheap prices for gold. 24 K.- always virgin.

Buy as much as you can.


TownCrierGAB, is it a question of appearance more than outcome?#1309594/6/05; 13:08:21

I have given this some thought.

In recent years, especially at times that gold's price was falling, there have been wide aggitations among the gold investing community that the government (or a nameless "other") was seemingly involved in the gold market, manipulating the price.

What would be your reaction, and please also try to estimate the typical reaction of all other gold investors, if the government (or "other") had found a way to be so successful in their gold price management designs that any and all fluctuation in the price of gold was arrested. Consequently, you could confidently go to a pawnshop or call a gold broker on any given moment and know that you could exchange a check or cash for ounces of gold at the same price as on any other day in the past or forseeable future.

Meanwhile, prices of groceries, clothing, cars, haircuts, etc., would continue to fluctuate freely just as they have always done.

Would our community of forum visitors be pleased with such rigid gold price manipulation (fixation) if it could indeed be successfully orchestrated by the government (or "other")?

If your own answer is "Certainly not!", as would be my own response, then why would you suddenly be better pleased by effectively the same net result by a mere superficial alteration in which bank tellers took the place of the pawndealers in conducting the exchange of cash for metal at a fixed rate?

If you still hold that it is good for the teller to be the face of a fixed exchange, then I must be missing something vital. I do not see where the superficial appearance carries any meaningful weight when the outcome (targeted gold manipulation) is the same.

Please help steer a rookie through this minefield of apparent contradictions in method vs. matter.


GoldiloxFixed Exchange rates#1309604/6/05; 14:19:03

I doubt seriously if even so-called manipulators would want zero fluctutation, as they make their gains by playing the oscillations. Since 2003 YE, the stock market has essentially made no gain "on the average", but individual issue oscillation has fueled a lot of trading profits to keep the "Wall St casino" happily making money for the most astute traders. Only a few issues have broken the larger trends by increasing earnings in multiples. The rest have dribbled sideways for 16 months.

Straight up and straight down only exist in momentary reactive movements, whereas the "trend" is always filled with lots of bumps and turns along the way.

melda laureGoldilox, FNM#1309614/6/05; 14:20:17

The analog of "too big to fail" is TOO BIG TO RESCUE. And that's the phrase I want to hear somebody say.

In the Argentina case, dollar balances were forced into Peso balances, then the peso balances were only redeemable in 10 year peso bonds, the yields blew out rendering the market value smaller still. In the process, three presidents refused to negotiate with US banks and were "replaced" as president in the space of a few months.

Those lucky few with real greenback notes in hand watched as their employers closed shop, and their local grocers were looted.

To add to your point about FDIC, have a look at your local credit union if you have one. Again this year, I check the annual report and it says: 70% Agencies and govt. bonds. Basically, they are a FNM money market fund that provides banking services. Granted, they've got retained capital of 12% (rather high for a credit union) of the portfolio and about 8% of the portfolio is in fed funds. As is true with most stocks, a small handful of stockholders account for the lions share of the holdings: about 36 account holders have an average of $127,000 in their balances. I would guess that about 85 to 95% of the liability side of the balance sheet is in acounts of 100k or less. The median account (by % of portfolio- not by % of shareholders) is probably in the area of 15 to 35k.

Can you imagine FDIC (or NCUA, the credit union version) reducing insurance to a $25,ooo limit? That may be what would be needed...

(How about conversion to laddered 5yr CD's on all monies above 25k with a 30% early liquidation penalty PER YEAR of remaining maturity? That's an 83% penalty on a 5yr CD)

FRN's could have a big premium. If so, that would have to be "managed" also.

TownCrierWorld Banks quickly "speaks freely" prior to Wolfowitz arrival, warns U.S. to cut deficits#1309624/6/05; 14:40:57;jsessionid=HORMK11BHNIPWCRBAEZSFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=8105679

PARIS (Reuters) - Accumulation of dollar reserves by some Asian countries could spark a systemic foreign exchange crisis, the chief economist of the World Bank said...

Francois Bourguignon told the Les Echos newspaper it was too early to talk of a speculative bubble but that the United States had to cut its deficits to head off a crisis.

"For the moment I would not speak of a speculative bubble but of the danger of a systemic crisis linked to the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves," Bourguignon told the paper.

..."Today, the danger is that some dealers are starting to think they must change the rules of the game, play dollar depreciation and move toward the yen and the euro. That would confront us with a real systemic risk."

"Today, no catastrophe is anticipated in the coming six to nine months. So I am not yet totally pessimistic," Bourguignon added.

^------(from url)-----^

However, a possible catastrophe IS sitting after six to nine months down the road?

Where "danger of a systemic crisis [is] linked to the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves", you might want to consider that the case has been well made to direct you toward accumulation of non-national reserves such as gold.

"Ownership is the answer," as outgoing Wolfensohn said yesterday.


GoldiloxU.S. May Veto Proposed Bullion Sale by IMF#1309634/6/05; 15:56:13


April 6 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices in New York rose for the second day in a row on speculation the U.S. will veto any attempt to sell gold owned by the International Monetary Fund, the third- largest bullion owner after the U.S. and Germany.

Gold fell to a three-month low on Feb. 3 after U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown said a revaluation of IMF's gold reserves can provide debt relief for some of the poorest countries. Congress will block any attempt to sell the IMF's 3,217 metric tons of gold, U.S. Representative James Saxton said yesterday.

"The statement was good for gold,'' said Tom Boustead, an analyst at Refco LLC in New York. Investors ``were uncertain exactly what is going to happen to the IMF gold, and that's one of the things that has been pressing down on gold,''


The debate continues . . .

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1309644/6/05; 16:27:24">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Wednesday market excerpts

April 6 (from Reuters) -- U.S. gold futures posted their highest close in a week Wednesday on a blend of renewed physical interest in bullion and currency-based and technical buying, dealers said.

COMEX June gold futures settled up $2.60 at $429.20 after trading $426.30 to $429.60.

The rise was fueled by a bounce this week from June gold's 200-day moving average at about $425.80 and short-covering triggered by the euro's move back above $1.28 on Tuesday, traders said. Consumers also had stepped up purchases after gold slipped to cheaper levels this week, said dealers.

"Today we are seeing a little bit of support for the market. Some physical demand came in at the lower levels and there is technical support down here too," Andy Brosoff at Mitsubishi International Corp. said.

Merrill Lynch said in a weekly precious metals report that ... the metal could regain the $440 level over the next month, amid rising gold demand for the March-May Indian wedding season and a likelihood of the euro rallying back above $1.34 against the dollar. "It is the post-May period, however, that gives us concern," Merrill said. A proposal for the International Monetary Fund to sell some gold to fund Third World debt relief was casting a shadow over the market, traders said. A decision is seen by mid-month.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr headlines)----

mikalGold gathering to lay down the gauntlet#1309654/6/05; 17:24:11 | The world economy
You Need Us And We Need You
"The Dangerous Codependence Of America And It's Foreign Financiers"
The Economist Global Agenda - April 6, 2005

melda laureGov. Gumpas: Your Majesty has no idea of progress! Prince Caspian: I have seen both in an egg. We call it going bad#1309664/6/05; 18:43:12

MK, #130941 was quite helpful, tnx!

Sir Smeagol, #130922

"Anybody with at least one eye open knows gold is a standard of wealth of sorts, yet no one living has ever known its ‘reference’ value; the past and present struggles surrounding gold have distorted its true worth. Today gold resembles a meter-stick seen through a thick lens -"

Perhaps it is more of a cubit-stick. It is many lives of men since anyone used a cubit stick for measuring the way say Noah did.

TC #130933:
"You can be only a party to a contract, you can't OWN it. Likewise, you can't own a dollar"

Was it Piaget who said of their fine watches "one does not own one of our watches, one merely saves it for future generations."

An egg, a basket of strawberries, a gold coin, a dozen acres of apple trees, a pair of shoes. All are wealth, but not all have the same properties. The egg and berries you may consume in any manner you wish, or sell. But would it be quite fair to shave the coin before "selling" it? Of course the shoes you could wear as much as you like. You could uproot a few dozen apple trees and plant pear trees. Or rip them all out and build a lead smelting operation but again, is that quite fair?

Property, or wealth, either way, carries with it a certain social responsibility. Eggs and shoes may be liquidated in any manner the owner chooses. But gold and to an extent real estate have other properties, and other social consequences.

I have a problem with humans claiming to own something that will last a good deal longer than one lifetime. Suppose you sold your house to the russian government? They may have title, but the TERRITORY still belongs to the USA (and would be subject to state, county, city and even the water district!). I hear that the Russians have relinquished title (well, call it Jurisdiction) over the Ukraine. This is odd, because the owners of real estate in the Ukraine haven't sold anything to anybody.

When Wolfensohn says "ownership is the solution" I have to ask, "to what problem?" Perhaps MK can elaborate on his answer to the ECB's 47 ton gold "sale", for in fact, MK seems to say that the ECB does not "own" the gold it has been given by its participating sovereign nations.

Do we really own land? Do we own gold?

You see, in the native sense, one can not own land- that is one can not Liquidate it. One can only be the "beneficial owner". And even then there are certain responsibilities. So too, the ECB can only truly own gold if it has the right to Liquidate. Perhaps then they were only intened to be a custodian? Did the US congress have the right to sell Monetary priviledges to the Federal Reserve Bank? Does George W Bush own the presidency? To give a historic example, when wealthy land owners of Irish farming land exported all the food to England during the famine was this a failure of morals? Of law? Of economics? Of what?

It was the failure of Irish sovereignty. Behold Bolivia! What a pathetic pseudo-communistic mess! Yet they retain their sovereignty. And consider Bhutan, backward, authoritarian yet free of foreign influence. Many native people I have known would gladly trade their few modern comforts for a 3rd world life of real freedom.

I continue to belive that Ownership is the problem. With all due respect to Mr Wolfensohn's new-found insights he is still wandering in the wilderness, (and I'm not really sure what he was trying to say, perhaps I will have to ask him.) The "western tradition" he touts is better preserved in europ than in the USA. Please make no mistake, I still belive people should have absolute authority to determine for themselves how they use their property without government regulation. Yet it is important to remember that we live in a world where Land is Owned and Abused, and gold is paperized, instead of posessed. I watched Jared Diamond lecture at UCSB. It is clear to me he too is a complete idiot (I'll take that back, he is merely uninformed). The gold standard did not prevent the United States from making a big mess in North America, but fiat money IS helping the US-led banking system to export our bad habits around the globe (and perhaps, it was credit that fueled much of that 19th century big mess too!)

If you go to the website, and click on the "hot news" tab, you can see the Famous Chumash basket that has a depiction of the spanish dollar. This basket may be seen live at the Natural History Museum in Santa Barbara. It sits next to the display of JP Harrington's memorabilia, an otherwise obscure linguist and story collector, who, (although he did not know it) took down chumash stories that relate the essences of Sumerian cosmology.

The basket is like the pair of shoes, the materials it is made of are gathered (nowadays) from public (and sometimes private) land. This gathering can not be done without modifying the plants, making them suitable for harvest, over a period of years, just as good rangeland cant have too much brush.

Some native "rights" are hard to exercise.
Fortunately the right to posess gold is relatively easy to enjoy.

"Why do peoples DO such stupid things?" asks Jared Diamond. Like the potato famine in Ireland, it is a failure of sovereignty, engendered by bribes, funded by fiat money. Until this is widely understood (and why should the Cryptocracy ever allow that to happen?), no amount of political action by environmentalists will have lasting effect.

-Mac Chapin

"Can we protect natural habitats without abusing the people who live in them?"

Hmmm.... for whom doth the bell toll?

(Ok, Henri, I will stop now)

melda laureMikal: US to Asians. We dont need you.#1309674/6/05; 18:56:51

Read also, America's Tribute by Richard Benson on the same site.

The Carribean "Special Purpose Entity" is the US answer to any Asian bond purchase intransigence. (Picking up the gauntlet)

"Even Stephen Roach has it wrong" Peter Schiff.


In his latest commentary, Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach, perhaps the only Wall Street economist who at least partially comprehends the looming economic danger, once again lamented that a "co-dependent global economy can't live without the excess consumption of Americans." This echoes the popular misconception that Americans are some how doing the world a favor by consuming the fruits of their labor.

The world no more depends on American's consumption than medieval serfs depended on the consumption of their lords, who typically took 25% of what they produced. What a disaster it would have been for the serfs had their lords not exacted this tribute. Think of all the unemployment the serfs would have suffered had they not had to toil so hard for the benefit of their lords. What would they have done with all that extra free time?


Challenge given, Challenge accepted, have you purchased your tickets to this fight?

MKmelde laure, all#1309684/6/05; 19:44:18

Who wrote,

"Vigilance is the price of liberty."

Don't go to Google. Don't go to Bartlett's. Go to your own education -- self or otherwise. And NO CHEATING!! For if you know this, then you've been down the road to personal excellence.

If you've peeked, don't ruin it for the rest. If you know off the top of your head, then please post it.


Let's see how good you really are.

Cavan ManMK#1309694/6/05; 20:28:20

I'd like to say Alexander Hamilton for I have become enamored of him due to the recent and excellent biography by Chernow. However, I believe the author of that quote is Thomas Jefferson. Perhaps it was Franklin???
goldquestAdd#1309704/6/05; 20:34:42

mikal"Appraisal Inflation"#1309714/6/05; 20:46:14

Real estate's 'dirty little secret' - CNBC TV -
Appraisal Inflation Worries Housing Authorities
Jane Wells - April 5, 2005
Noting overassessments and overestimations deleterious
impact on default rates and making comparisons to the Savings and Loan Crisis...Got gold?

mikalGreenspan weighs in on mortgage mammoths#1309724/6/05; 21:23:03

Greenspan: Beware mortgage risk
Fed chairman says oversight alone won't reduce financial risks of government-sponsored enterprises.
April 6, 2005 - WASHINGTON (Reuters) -
"Fed chief Alan Greenspan urged Congress Wednesday to curb the rapid growth of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for the sake of the nation's financial system, as a federal regulator unveiled new accounting problems at Fannie Mae.
.....In his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee, Greenspan said that stiffer regulation alone was not enough to ease -- and could actually worsen -- the risks the two government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) pose.
"World-class regulation, by itself, may not be sufficient and, indeed, might even worsen the potential for systemic risk if market participants inferred from such regulation that the government would be more likely to back GSE debt in the event of financial stress," he said. "This is the heart of a dilemma in designing regulation for GSEs.
"We at the Federal Reserve believe this dilemma would be resolved by placing limits on the GSEs' portfolios of assets, perhaps as a share of single-family home mortgages outstanding or some other variation of such a ratio," the Fed chief said."
As a key Republican predictably opposes such limits, expect to see meaningful reform supported only by a "shocked" Congress. Given the majority stake of mortgage markets occupied by the two GSE wooly mammoths, has Congress tacitly acquiesced to a modern "Ice Age"?

Chris PowellIs the U.S. really opposed to IMF gold sales, and, if so, why?#1309734/6/05; 22:11:16

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Belgian@GAB#1309744/6/05; 22:12:48

There are more than enough reasons for always remaining a realistic optimist...with a bad character of course.
I've just spend a week on the Riviera of liberté, fraternité et égalité >>> It was still there, very tangible, and I enjoyed it immensely, again !!!

The CB gold-tumult (action) is driving many gold-observers and interests, crazy. And frankly, I do like this result.
All keep staring at the gold-tumult in the "traditional" dollar-system context. And therefore, gold in the new euro context must be viewed as analog. Mistake !

Sure, there is a constant stream of "parole, parole, parole"...but some words "do" mean a lot when fully understood and realized by who they are said, and when.
Central bankers are NOT as stupid as one might think(percept) !!!

As long as all gold affectionades keep on looking...remain totally hooked...on the "PRICE" of gold, they all keep dancing on the wrong leg ! Cross that Rubicon, dearest GAB and look for the reasons why you (we all) should ! Don't throw away the yellow baby with the bathwater. Put that sledge hammer away and look at the golden chessbord.

Gandalf the WhiteHO HUM ! The US$ Chart -- <;-) #1309754/7/05; 00:14:54

US$ Chart is exactly at the same level that it was yesterday at this same time !
The antics by the ESF were AGAIN a waste of digitial USA MONIES trying to save the Banksters derivatives.
Soon the Beautiful WATERFALLS will again arrive.
84.50 is the next barrier to fall in the downward trend.

TopazDollar/Gold.#1309764/7/05; 02:27:25

I full well expected to be witnessing an across-the-board Gold spike by now, due largely to the perceived Bullion drought, however Gold is locked solid on the dollar much so that even a f'source rescaling barely hides the fact.
This is most curious ...since early Feb, Gold has been acting so "un-ambiguously" that a fair conclusion is that Gold (the metal) and Gold the (traded) Paper have, or ARE in the process of ...going their seperate ways.

Topazwhatsmore...#1309774/7/05; 04:46:14

...if below IS happening, maybe we'll see a sign here as Oil decouples from it's perceived "lock-on" to the Bond/Dollar composite.


TownCrierMonetary policy decisions#1309784/7/05; 07:46:24

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted today to maintain the Bank's repo rate at 4.75 percent.

The European Central Bank's Governing Council also opted in today's meeting to maintain the eurosystem's main refinancing rates steady -- at 2.0 percent.

If U.S. monetary policy makers eventually send rates as high as commonly found among banana republics (15% - 50%), how many analysists will be claiming the higher rates as a sure sign of health for a stronger dollar? Or will they instead admit that it is an acknowledgement of weak forward rates (depreciation expectations) against other currencies? Should the recent near-tripling of the FOMC's fed funds target from 1 percent to 2.75 percent be seen differently, or as the first fateful steps on this dismal journey?

Choose gold.


TownCrierPizza delivery cost -- new barometer of inflation?#1309794/7/05; 08:00:19

Washington Post, April 7, 2005 -- Next week, local Domino's Pizza stores will begin charging a $1 delivery fee for any order. There's no other way to slice the rising costs the chain has to pay for fuel, rent, insurance and food, especially cheese, the prices of which are "at record highs," said David Carraway, president of Team Washington Inc., which owns 59 Domino's stores in the Washington area.

"Everything is going up. It's not a decision we're happy with, but it's the reality of what we're dealing with," Carraway said.

Carraway said the current competitive pizza market makes it impossible to cover costs by raising the price of the pizza.

William Eck first learned of the surcharge when he ordered his usual Tuesday special: two large cheese pizzas for the price of one. He said he was surprised and angry when he learned why his order would cost $12.50 instead of $11.50.

...From now on, Eck said, when it comes to his regular pizza order, "I will be picking it up."

^-------(from url)------^

Brilliant. Instead of letting a delivery driver efficiently "carpool" several pizza orders into a single cost-saving run (akin to a mailman's route), Eck will probably spend $2 on his own gas to save $1 on his pizza bill.

With a nation full of similarly-minded "economists", we are sure to continue importing copious quantities of crude and consuming our way to a permanent position atop the perpetual trade-deficit hit parade.


TownCrierHigher prices coming, either way you slice it#1309804/7/05; 08:11:25§ion=news&news_id=bus-pek185781&date=20050407&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw

BEIJING (Reuters) - China, answering a U.S. threat to slap tariffs on Chinese goods unless Beijing revalues its yuan currency, on Thursday urged the United States to tackle its own economic imbalances.

The comments came a day after the U.S. Senate voted in favor of threatening China with tariffs on its exports to the United States unless it changed its fixed-currency policy, which keeps the yuan pegged near 8.28 to the dollar.

Some law-makers say that level undervalues the yuan by as much as 40 percent...

^-----(from url)-----^

Will shoppers suffer from "sticker shock" if they suddenly lose their built-in 40% price discounts on imported Chinese goods?

Will our service sector an remaining manufacturers raise their own prices in response to compensate for higher costs of living?

Choose your captains and kings as you may; however, inflation rules.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Since 1973 -- Proven Reliability, Longevity, Quality and Professionalism ---- Invest with Confidence!!#1309814/7/05; 08:13:17

Cavan ManPetrodollar/euro(s)#1309824/7/05; 08:35:36

Take a look. This one is well reasoned.
GoldiloxPizza Delivery#1309834/7/05; 09:19:30

@ TC,

Look on the bright side. That's an half-hour less hypno-tube programming for Mr. Eck each time he chooses to bypass delivery.

He might even discover that there is a world outside his garden wall, which may not resemble the footage he's been receiving from the spin-meisters.

GoldiloxMexico Watch - Bolsa and Border#1309844/7/05; 09:41:14


There's a very worthwhile story over in the LA Times this morning about what's going on in Mexico. We had been watching, of course, because some of the behavior of Vencente' Fox seems over the top. The standoff along the smuggler's favorite part of the border aside, there have been whirls and rumors on the net lately that the 300 families that control Mexico, want a change at the top. The problems of the neighborhood power structure are not usually a concern to us, but it is bleeding over into the markets, with Mexico down 12% in recent weeks. That's the kind of fiscal discomfort than can bring about presidential level changes. But meantime, along the border, the number of illegals swarming into the US has slowed since the Minutemen showed up, says the LA Daily News.


Interesting that the Bolsa, one of the recent "recovery's" best performers, is stalling right at the point that the media is focused on the Minutia, as media is wont to do. I've always wondered how they quantize the number of smugglers, etc. that get through the police net without getting caught.

I remember a story a few years back that the "War on Drugs" had reduced drug smuggling from 90% to 80% getting across the border. How in the Heck can they claim any accuracy with numbers like that? Who's counting how many get really through? Sounds like more "hedonics" to me.

Bizarro-GreenspanChris Powell,you say....#1309854/7/05; 09:58:03

"Since the U.S. government has been the
underwriter of the worldwide gold price suppression
scheme, what explains its opposition to the IMF
gold sales? Is the U.S. just setting itself up to
be persuaded otherwise at the last minute, going
along with gold sales to smash the gold price
again, this time extra-hard? Or has the IMF gold,
presumably long in the U.S. government's custody,
already been largely expended in the gold price
suppression scheme without the knowledge of the
IMF and its other members? If so, a decision to
sell it would only disclose that it wasn't there
anymore. That would be embarrassing."

Formerly prolific(check out the USAGOLD Hall of Fame) and unnervingly provative USAGOLD poster ORO had this to say on Feb.6/2002:

"The Euro Zone Gold Shorts
I wanted to point out that some things have changed in the gold derivatives markets since the 1999 gold spike. Most notable was the change of market dominance from US bankers to European banks.
From a recent peak of 44% in June 01, US banks dropped their share to 27% of the OTC gold derivatives market, dropping positions from the 10000 tons in notionals to 7000, while increasing maturities slightly to a bit over 2 years.
In the same period, EU and Swiss banks had increased their positions and restructured maturities substantially - from a reckless few months in the 97 to 3/99 period, to just under 2 years. During the 99 price spike, German banks increased their positions by 5000 notional tons while US banks increased theirs only 1000 tons and the Swiss decreased by 1000 tons. By 3/00 non-US banks had 19000 notional tons outstanding, while US banks had retained their positions at 10000 notional tons.

While US bank positions since early 2001 have fallen to 7000 tons, European banks have increased their positions from 13000 to a new record 20000 tons at the June 2002 euro-gold market top at 340-350 euro (an oddly flat top that retained a suspiciously narrow 10 euro range for the whole June quarter after holding the narrow 330-350 euro range in the prior one). Since that peak, data are unavailable, but the recent stubborn resistance at 340 euro indicates a line in the sand characteristic of protection of a key breakeven figure."

Hey,Chris,I just watch the show.I've been watching daily for seven years now.It's a great whodunit with many diverse and colorful characters and intersecting plot lines.

These intersecting plotlines often thrust world players into situations that sometimes require confoundingly complex role playing.

And then,there's the color commentators,holy moly,what a motley crew.So many diverse and divisive opinions'so many POG predictions.

ORO's call on the euro 340-350 ceiling has been...vexing,to say the least.

Gold,it would appear,is part of the monetary "big show",the show about nothing...

but gold.

RimhRe: TC and the pizza#1309864/7/05; 10:15:41

Good piece (pun intended), from Washington of all places - sort of makes the "there's no inflation" rhetoric bombarding us that much more laughable if it wasn't so painful. Also unfortunate is that Mr. Eck doesn't see that by him driving to pick up the pizza he may be spending more.

One of the topics of a local radio show is whether the suburbs will be vacated (driving house prices way down) due to the high cost of fuel and commuting. With the cost of fuel locally at all time highs and destined to go higher, it is certainly on a lot of commuters minds. Local car dealers are also promoting the sales of their hybrid vehicles more....

TownCrierTrichet criticises IMF gold sales plan#1309874/7/05; 11:23:24

FRANKFURT (AFX) - European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet criticised the idea that the IMF should sell some of its gold reserves to finance debt relief.

"Development assistance should normally be financed from budgetary resources rather than through the use of monetary assets," Trichet said.

...if the IMF did sell some of its gold, it would be better if it used this to reinforce its own financial position, rather than to finance debt relief.

The ECB's own recent decision to sell 47 tonnes of gold as part of a five-year central bank gold sales agreement was an appropriate way of reshaping its reserve assets, he said.

^-------(from url)-----^

Suitably vague so as not to show ones early cards before the final hand is played.

What else would you expect when the stakes are so high?


YGMORO....#1309884/7/05; 11:27:01

How nice it would be to have him back here again for some new thoughts and insights...Besides FOA and Another, the Invisible Hand and North 49 are MIA posters I also miss reading...YGM
slingshotPizza ,Gas and One Cucumber#1309894/7/05; 14:04:12

First I would like to thank all those who have been posting. I enjoy the material.Keep up the GOOD WORK.

This delema, " To go , or not to Go" for Pizza may put those fans of the delightful pie, into a Tissy. All because of an extra dollar. Something changing in the minds of the consumer?

Today my wife went to the market and an English Cucumber was $2.99 for one. Remarkable! This one cucumber has exceeded the price of the average regular gas price in my area.

Can't get very far on one cucumber. We have to be headed for one heck of a Pickle. ;0)

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1309904/7/05; 15:24:38">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Thursday market excerpts

April 7 (from Reuters) -- COMEX June contracts slid 80 cents to conclude at $428.40 after trading between $430.50 and $427.30. Fund buying had hoisted gold in the morning to its highest since last Friday, but short-term funds turned sellers near the day's peak as a euro rally above $1.29 fizzled on profit-taking.

"The euro is the real driving force in the gold market," said a New York desk trader. "You did have some fund buying in gold earlier, but also it has resistance at around the $431 level. It seems we're just treading water with the upward tilt in the last few days."

Earlier the ECB left its key interest rate unchanged at 2 percent.... The Bank of England kept rates at 4.75 percent for the eighth month running.

Dollar trading was choppy Thursday after morning economic news was followed by U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow issuing a fresh warning that if Congress fails to curb investment activities of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, they could threaten the economy.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr headlines)----

TownCrierKey Q&A for Trichet at today's Governing Council policy press conference; on the euro -- and gold#1309914/7/05; 16:10:14

...Let me also mention that in the present international environment we observe none of the intra-European turbulence that there would have been with the various national currencies before the euro.

We would have had a lot of turbulence, a lot of difficulties, and not only on the exchange rate side, between the various European currencies, but also on the interest rate side, with a piling-up of risk premia, volatility and turbulence in the interest rate market.

I mention all that because it is forgotten. We have the euro now; we have totally forgotten the difficulties and the drawbacks that were associated with the absence of the euro. It is a necessary reminder.

Why did the ECB sell gold -- do you not need it any longer? And a second question: what is the position of the ECB concerning potential gold sales by the IMF?

First of all, as you may know, we are a signatory to the Central Banks’ Gold Agreement that was published on 8 March 2004 following discussions by a number of central banks.

Not only is the ECB a signatory, but we were also the first signatory to that press release, along with a large number of central banks from the euro area, from the European Union, as well as others. We participate fully in this agreement. There is, as you know, a ceiling that has been agreed upon as regards the 12-month period, which is of 500 tons. [Ed. note: this all means to say, "Do NOT be alarmed."]

The Governing Council of the ECB decided to sell gold, which we thought appropriate to the overall reshaping of our reserve assets, in full compliance with the Agreement, as -- it goes without saying -- do all other signatories.

This we made public recently, and it was very well understood by the market. We also indicated that it was not our intention to sell gold again during the first 12 months of the Agreement.

Regarding possible sales of gold by the IMF, this is indeed an issue that is discussed in the IMF.

I understand that there is no consensus but you have to ask the various partners concerned. My understanding of the current situation is that we are far from agreement.

In terms of our own position, we would certainly be cautious in this respect. As central bankers, we have a central bankers’ approach.

There are different legal arrangements from country to country: in some countries the decision is left to the Executive, whereas in other countries the decision is shared by the central bank and the Executive; still in others, the decision may be left entirely to the central bank. In most countries, this is a decision that will be taken, ultimately, by the Executive.

As central bankers we say that development assistance should normally be financed through budgetary resources. That would be the normal financing of all development assistance rather than through the use of monetary assets.

We would also say that, if the IMF embarked upon gold sales, it would perhaps be better, from the IMF's standpoint, to use them to reinforce its own position -- its financial position -- rather than to finance debt relief.

Again, the approach I describe is of a central banker. I would add that, if -- despite the thoughts I am expressing, which are certainly shared by a number of partners and shareholders of the IMF and perhaps even large shareholders -- a decision were taken, then it would be absolutely essential that it should not upset the market.

If sales did take place, they should not change what we have told the market with our own Gold Agreement. It would have to be discussed with the IMF, in any case, but certainly the market should not be upset. That said, it is a theoretical assumption. At this stage, to my knowledge, no such decision has been taken.

...with the fact that a number of external forecasters have lowered their estimates of trend growth, it might be time for the ECB to consider lowering its reference growth value for M3?

Trichet: is clear that there is more liquidity than is required for non-inflationary growth and we consider this one of the reasons why we have to be vigilant, why vigilance is of the essence. You also know that the monetary pillar is important for us because, in the long run, inflation is a monetary phenomenon. That is our belief...

You said that oil prices affect both growth and inflation and I was wondering in the current situation which effect is the heavier one for you? Is it the effect on inflation or on growth?

I am asked this question regularly. Of course, in our own perspective it is not pertinent. Mechanically, both growth and inflation are touched and there are a number of models that would give the impact.

As you know, what we have to deliver is price stability, and by delivering price stability we also deliver the best monetary and financial environment we can for growth and job creation.

There is no contradiction, so we will continue to do what is necessary to deliver price stability. What was necessary today was not to change rates.

^------(from url)-----^

By extension, a 47-tonne gold operation by the European ringleader may have been one of those "do what is necessary" events during the early part of the year to demonstrate a capability and a commitment to key allies in the evolving monetary battlefield.

As indicated in a previous nod to this action, frankly, I personally would have a hard time respecting a central bank that did NOT somehow demonstrate an ability to appreciate and participate in two-way PHYSICAL operations at market prices.

By contrast, what the Treasury/Federal Reserve does vis à vis gold is an absolute joke -- $42/oz...


SmeagolMelda Laure - Ownership#1309924/7/05; 19:41:53

sss...perhaps, we might para-phrase Ben Franklin?

"It's [yours], if you can keep it."

How primitive we sstill are, in thiss modern Age.


DruidFOA (11/2/01; 12:35:27MT - msg#128)#1309934/7/05; 20:35:08

Gold,,,,,, Gold,,,,, Who has the Gold?

"......Many said that the "bond vigilantes" would hamstring any effort to price inflate a credit driven money like the dollar reserve. Perhaps causing our Fed to eventually lose the war as it "pushes on a string"? Many of you have read countless opinions as to why our credit markets would implode into deflation as a "mise" style economic theory surfaced to control the controllers. Truly, these people confuse theory with human action as much as they do not understand real physics! Indeed, strings that cannot be pushed are either thrown or cast aside in the real world.

Reference today; we see where the "political will", trumps economic theory hands down, as the dollar people remove 30 year bonds from the system. In the process, forcing rates all the lower. The next time someone reads to you reams of hard money theory; ask they why they said the same thing 30 years ago about the dollar and the US economy? But it kept right on running; proving them repeatedly wrong? Now, for the hundredth time they say: "mise is correct, the markets cannot be faked, so a little deflation will follow this inflation!"

Baloney! The evolution of Political will is now driving the dollar into an end time hyper inflation from where we will not return. That is our call. Bet your wealth on the other theorist's call if you want more of Their last 30 years of hard money success.

More is to come!

Are you worried about South America? Don't! We will print all the money it takes to save any and all US financial interest in that sector.

Are you worried that we will enter an Japan like economic environment with rates at zero, economic stagnation and falling real asset values? Don't! They do not use an out going world reserve currency and we do! We will print what ever amounts needed to keep real Estate up, the Dow up and our economy purring: no matter what the value of the dollar on foreign exchange becomes. Or our eventual price inflation.

Our local economy will soar in dollar terms; no matter what our dollar is worth.

Are you worried that our 10 year bond, the new bench mark, will soar and squeeze off any recovery? Don't! We will just remove it from use and move to the 5 year,,,,,,,, to be replaced later by the 2 year,,,,,,,, to be replaced later by the 6 month,,,,,, 1 month,,,,,, 1 week,,,,, 1 day,,,,,, then

Druid: I don't know whether our credit manufacturers have reached this point in time as described above by FOA but rest assured that some variation of this theme is being played out under the guise of structured or creative finance and is manifesting itself big time in real estate.

The "Mac family" (Freddy & Fannie) credit creating centrifuge might be the way that the Fed and Treasury got around indirectly the process that FOA described or, maybe, it's an initial step in that direction. Anyway you look at it, we are heading down the inflationary vortex and the process is picking up steam.

GonlyoldTC & Pizza#1309944/7/05; 21:37:09

That dollar delivery charge still won't cover the pizza driver's vehicle costs. Pizza drivers have been exploited by the Pizza Bossman since I can remember.

According to the IRS, it costs 40 1/2 cents per mile to operate your vehicle. That's the deduction they will allow for 2004 taxes. I believe that includes everything except interest on any vehicle loan. That means if the driver gets the dollar, he can only make a round trip delivery of about 1 1/2 miles. This is not a typical delivery distance (3/4 mile one way).

Let's say he has $12.00 order and a 10 mile round trip delivery distance. Here's what he should get for his effort. Vehicle costs: 10 mi/ X 40 1/2 cents/mi. = $4.05; Tip (min): $12.00 X 15% gratuity = $1.80; that's $5.85 (min.).

Most people would think that this is a good tip, but it just barely makes the minimum. Add to this the risks of traffic tickets and accidents and this tip becomes trivial. Bexause of this, all pizza drivers are exploited by their bosses. In effect, the driver is subsidizing his bosses pizza business. But they're not explained this.
I try to explain to people that when they take a taxi ride, they are charged a delivery fee for miles driven and they usually give the driver a tip. That's how it should be with pizza drivers.

If the bossman gets the dollar, the driver is exploited even before.

And if you want to consider the American Automotive Association's, AAA's, findings, they say it costs 52 1/2 cents per mile to operate your vehicle. I believe that this includes the cost of loan interest. Factor that into the example above.

So if any of you want to help the driver make a living, don't exploit him, but do consider his vehicle costs when you order pizza.

milosIMF Gold#1309954/7/05; 23:12:40

My understanding is the IMF hasn't any gold but pledges from the members at inception, meaning whenever the IMF agrees (members) to sell physical the members must all cough up their proportionate interest, which explains why Uncle Sam is taking exception to the sale.
Namely, he hasn't any to contribute.

SundeckTitle of my last post...should reference "ECB sales" not "IMF sales"#13103004/09/05; 03:09:45

Sorry...the title of my last post should emphasise ECB sales rather than IMF sales, although both are discussed.


Belgian@ Sundeck#1310314/9/05; 03:43:48

If you wish to understand the gold-tumult (action) better,...reread Randy's posted Q & A with Trichet msg # 130991. Trichet's answers, and of course the directional (purposal) questions themselves, as well, do suggest what is going on behind the scenes and why.

I pick only one example (only one, out of the many) :
T. >>> ...if the IMF embarked upon gold sales, it would perhaps (how modest) be better, from the IMF's standpoint (!!!), to use them (gold-sales) TO REINFORCE ITS OWN (IMF) POSITION >>> ITS FINANCIAL POSITION ...!!!!!
Combine this with Trichet's firm statement that...>>> the (gold)market should NOT be upset !!!

The above must/should make you think about the * REAL * nature (purpose) of the CB-gold-commitments !!! ONE BIG DIRECTIONAL MOVE, dearest Sundeck.

Read more CB/BIS/IMF speeches !!!

Dollar Bill.,.#1310324/9/05; 09:55:04

OVS, your silences arent as good as your posts:)
Dollar Bill.,.#1310334/9/05; 10:08:06

This from a formum posters link Melde L.
Suppose six castaways are stranded on a deserted island, five Asians and one American. Further, suppose that the castaways decide to divide the work load among them in the following manner: (for the purpose of simplicity, the only desire the castaways work to satisfy is hunger) one Asian is put in charge of hunting, an other in charge of fishing, and a third in charge of finding vegetation. A fourth is put in charge of preparing the meal, while a fifth is given the task of gathering firewood and tending to the fire. The American is given the job of eating.
..So, on our island five Asians work all day to feed one American, who spends his day sunning himself of the beach. He is employed in the equivalent of the service sector, operating a tanning salon which none of the Asians on the island utilize. At the end of the day, the five Asians present a painstakingly prepared feast to the American, who sits at the head of a special table, built by the Asians specifically for this purpose.
..Realizing that subsequent banquets will only be forthcoming if the Asians are alive to provide them, he allows them just enough scraps from his table to sustain their labor for the following day.
...Modern day economists would say that this American is the lone engine of growth driving the island's economy and that without his ravenous appetite, the Asians on the island would be unemployed. The reality, of course, is that the best thing the Asians could do to improve their lots would be to vote the American off the island. Without the American consuming all of their food, there would be a lot more available for them to eat.
..Alternatively, they could spend less time on their food related tasks, devoting the extra time to greater leisure or to satisfying other needs, which previously went unfulfilled since much of their scarce resources are currently devoted to feeding the American.

Now some of you might be thinking that this analogy is flawed, as in the real world economy, Americans pay for their food, so real world Asians providing the meals receive value in exchange for their effort. O.K. lets assume that the American on our island pays for his food in the same manner real world American pay for theirs, buy issuing IOU's. Let's assume that at the end of the meal, the Asians present the American with a bill, which he pays by issuing IOU's claiming to represent future payments of food.

However, all the castaways know that the IOU's can never be collected, as the America has no food, or the means or even the intention, of providing any in the future. But the Asians accept them anyway, and each night add them to the piles of IOUs collected on previous days. Are the Asians better off as a result of this accumulation? Are they any less hungry? Of course not.

Now let's assume another Asian castaway washes up onto the island, and assumes the role of central banker. Now each day the central banker taxes the other Asians on the island by confiscating a portion of the scraps of food the American throws them each day from his table. The central banker than agrees to return these morsels to the other Asians each day, in exchange for each Asian's daily accumulation of the American's IOU's, less a small percentage for himself, because the central banker also has to eat.

Does the existence of a central banker change anything? Do the Asians have any more to eat because their own central banker gives them back a portion of the food he took from them in the first place? Do the American's IOU's have any more value because they can now be exchanged in this manner? Of course not.

Well, if it does not make sense for the six make-believe Asians to support one make-believe American, it does not make sense for billions of real world Asians to support millions of real world Americans. The fact that they do so in exchange for worthless IOU's in no way alters this reality.
There is no question that in the short-run, by allowing the U.S. dollar to collapse (in effect voting millions of American's off the island), there will be some temporary disruptions to Asian economies. Of course there will be some initial losers, particularly among those Asians who currently profit from this arrangement. However, these profits come only at the expense of far greater losses born by the broader Asian population.
In the end, the cessation of America's excess consumption, which is a burden that the Asians now disproportionately bear, not a benefit that they enjoy, will be the best thing that can happen to the Asian people. Like the serfs being liberated from their lords, their scare resources will finally be freed to satisfy their own needs and desires, and their standards of living will rise accordingly. In addition, since their savings would then be available to finance additional capital investments, rather than being squandered by American consumers, their future standards of living will rise that much faster as well.
Unfortunately for Americans, being kicked off the Asian gravy train means its time to get back to work. In simple terms, this means a whole lot more hunting and fishing, and a whole lot less eating.
Peter Schiff C.E.O. and Chief Global Strategist
Euro Pacific Capial, Inc.

DruidSome Bullion Stew#1310344/9/05; 10:53:41

Druid: FYI, a TV program recently aired entitled "Inside the World's Mightiest Bank". Yes, it was about our very own Federal Reserve. While the narrator briefly touched on the fact that the Federal Reserve held gold bullion in an underground undisclosed location, the primary focus of the program detailed how our currency comes into existence and how through very elaborate security procedures, the Fed guards against counterfeiting.

This being said, of the brief emphasis on gold there was a very interesting statistic and statement that reached out and slapped me into consciousness, and it went something like this;

We have $70 billion dollars (this figure is a moving target) of gold bullion and of that figure 90% is "held" for foreigners.

Now I don't know and it wasn't explained how that "$70 billion dollar" figure was derived in order to get some sort of idea of how much physical bullion this entailed.

Was this market price or fixed price??? Don't know, just throwing this out.

As I'm sure each of you will, give this one some thought.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Hard assets, easy access!#1310354/9/05; 11:56:38">gold -- a global calling card
Dollar Bill.,#1310364/9/05; 13:05:26

The Melda L link has its imperfections, but I like it, and it brings up the issue of food. If something threatened the US food making key is that? Pouring products into the US is one thing, In a famine, of whatever size, the desire to support the dollar to allow the US to buy the food it wants while others are hungry.......there is a scenario that has a possibility of coming to pass courtesy of the trouble in the world of Bee's.
The greatest kingdom of the world......still......being a kingdom, is a harmful design for a structure, and curtails freedom and mans natural course of events. The design of the Catholic hierarchy is based in the old age of the tyranny of kings, and that structure will continue to be harmful despite the best efforts of individuals to bring good to it.

SmeagolSsir Druid...we assumes#1310374/9/05; 14:27:33

sss... hmmm... 70 billion dollars, divided by (the moving target of the) dollar's perceived worth, currently 425 per ounce of It, divided by 32,000 troy ounces per tonne, equals 5147 tonnes, of which 4632 is held for 'others'.

We think news people would use the market price, as almosst everyone is unaware of the very much lower 'official' US government figure... at the (rounded) US 'official' price of 42 dollars per ounce the result would be around ten times as much - far more than the Treasury ssays they have, and gold held for others (except the US) certainly would be marked to market?

verrry interessting, yess, precious... how many total dollar-units 'real' and 'virtual' are floating around, ssomething like 200 trillion? and if one divides the total US Treasury gold by that, It would price the dollar at 764,790 per ounce (!)... maybe we should call them 'dollairs' insstead, eh?


SmeagolFED-held gold and IMF?#1310384/9/05; 14:53:27

For Ssir Druid, and all.

Snip (actually a chunk) from article at link (bear in mind, thiss was published in July 2001!):

"EARMARKED GOLD I mention in the above article the recent essay written by Reg Howe, and also provide a hyperlink to it. I strongly recommend that you read this essay because it is full of informative material, including details of the so-called earmarked gold being stored at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

This gold is owned by foreign governments and institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, but is stored at the NY Fed. It is specially 'earmarked' in order to establish that this gold is not part of the US Gold Reserve, some of which is also stored at the NY Fed.

This weight of earmarked gold is one of the largest hoards in the world stored in any one place, but its size has been declining in recent years. There were 13,387 tonnes of earmarked gold stored at the NY Fed in 1990, but this total has dropped to 9,235 tonnes as of April 2001, which is the most recent report, a decline of 4,152 tonnes, or 31%.

There has been a pattern to this flow of gold out of the NY Fed, mainly reflecting bigger flows out when the gold price is rising. This pattern of activity may have been one of the factors that Alan Greenspan was referring to when he testified before Congress that "…central banks stand ready to lease [i.e., lend] gold in increasing quantities should the price rise."

However, that pattern has been changing. Since September 2000 at least 40 tonnes of gold have been removed from the NY Fed each month. Reg Howe notes that "the central banks have not only increased their leasing and sales activities but also made them less obviously targeted to price increases." This observation is important.

In my view, this change in the pattern of dishoarding from the NY Fed smacks of desperation. The shorts need physical bullion to keep the gold price from exploding upwards. The shorts can't get this bullion from new production or other sources, so they have to pull it out of the NY Fed, regardless whether or not the gold price is rising. More gold is coming out of the NY Fed each month than is being mined by South Africa, the world's largest producer.

According to the Washington Agreement, central banks cannot dishoard more than 400 tonnes per year, nor increase their lending of gold. If so, then why is gold being pulled out of the NY Fed at a rate over 480 tonnes per year? But the real picture is probably even worse.

It is likely that the 150 tonnes being sold by the Bank of England this year is stored in the BoE's own vault in London, not the NY Fed. So when taking the 80 tonnes difference calculated above and this 150 tonnes, we can conclude that 230 tonnes more gold is being dishoarded from the NY Fed than required for the central banks if they are indeed sticking to their Washington Agreement. I see only two interpretations to this analysis.

The obvious conclusion is that the central banks are breaking the Washington Agreement and selling more than 400 tonnes per year and/or increasing their gold lending. The less obvious conclusion is that the central banks that signed the Washington Agreement are indeed sticking to it, but some non-signatory is lending and/or dishoarding gold.

Though long-time readers of these letters know that I have a very low regard for central banks and their commitment to honor their agreements/promises, I think that they deserve the benefit of the doubt this time. My guess is that someone else is shipping this 40 tonnes of gold a month out of the NY Fed.

If we assume that the signatories of the Washington Agreement are indeed honoring their commitment, and given the size of the weight of this gold being shipped monthly out of the NY Fed, there are only two possible parties that have this much gold - the IMF and the US Treasury.

So could the Treasury somehow be swapping more gold with the Bundesbank? Or is the IMF involved? I think it is the latter.

Note all of the talk in this past weekend's G8 meeting about debt relief for poor countries, but in contrast to years past, there's been no mention of selling the IMF's gold to raise the money to provide this relief. Maybe they are purposefully not mentioning the IMF's gold because they are already tapping into it."

In-ter-resssting times, indeed!


SmeagolAch! That link...#1310394/9/05; 14:54:54

TopazBullion @ Druid.#1310404/9/05; 16:17:00

I suppose the issue of "foreigners" needs clarification too, given that the Fed doesn't quite fit the bill as a completely home-grown entity.
So, from SSir Smeagol's link, we can determine 420T of Treasury Bullion is deposited with the Fed (assumed to be lumped in on the "foreigner" side of the ledger) of a total of approx (foreign) 7,000T in Vaults in NY.
This amount may well be the US IMF commitment of a total of 3200T)...and might explain Treasurys reluctance to sales ie: ANY re-location of Bullion "from home-soil" despite the fact your "share" might be ONLY 15%odd of the total thereby relincuishes 100% of the "control".

Topaz...or put ANOTHER way,#1310414/9/05; 17:10:16

Say you are a landholder (10,000 acres) ...Due to their perceived "competence", you opt to relinquish the operation and management of the property to a "share-cropper" for a percentage of the profits.
The harvested "corn" is held in 7 silos ...6 contain the "harvest" and one, under the control of the share-cropper, contains the seed-corn for future "activities", now mixed in with a lot of "others" corn YOUR silo.

What would you do if circumstance dictated that this seed-corn be sold to satisfy others demand for it, concurrently undermining your future harvests??

Don't sell the SEED-CORN!

R PowellBlack blade#1310424/9/05; 18:52:34

A book has been recommended to me..

It is "Beyond Oil: the view from Hubbert's peak"
Author...Kenneth Deffeyes

Are you familar with this one? And, should I buy it or not?? If not, can you recommend one that gives a realistic (as close to truth as possible) picture for the long term outlook on production...TIA I can guess at demand as well as the next idiot, it's production (and production potential) I wonder about.
happy weekend....!

Black Blade@R Powell#1310434/9/05; 19:16:17

That would be a good one. I am currently waiting for the release of matt Simmons new book:

Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy by Matthew R. Simmons

The Saudis are producing oil at peak production and have no spare capacity although they have been saying they would increase production for over a year now (still haven't - at least good quality oil). Any increase in Saudi oil now would be heavy sour crude. They simply can't "turn on the spigots" like some nutty conspiracy theorists claim - it would irreparable damage existing reservoirs.

Anyway, this should be a good book along with: Beyond Oil : The View from Hubbert's Peak by Kenneth S. Deffeyes. A good book to start with is: The Prize: The Epic Quest For Oil, Money & Power by Daniel Yergin, and another is: The Commanding Heights : The Battle for the World Economy
by Daniel Yergin, Joseph Stanislaw

Cheers and happy reading,

- Black Blade

R PowellBlack Blade#1310444/9/05; 20:10:39

Clink!A different take on Wolfowitz's appointment#1310454/9/05; 20:58:06

Well, it's refreshing to see someone who looks on this with a positive slant :-

Snip --->

Wolfowitz's appointment is a good thing for three reasons. It highlights the profoundly unfair and undemocratic nature of decision-making at the bank. His presidency will stand as a constant reminder that this institution, which calls on the nations it bullies to exercise "good governance and democratisation" is run like a medieval monarchy.

It also demolishes the hopeless re formism of men such as Stiglitz and George Soros who, blithely ignoring the fact that the US can veto any attempt to challenge its veto, keep waving their wands in the expectation that a body designed to project US power can be magically transformed into a body that works for the poor. Had Stiglitz's attempt to tinker with the presidency succeeded, it would simply have lent credibility to an illegitimate institution, enhancing its powers. With Wolfowitz in charge, its credibility plummets.

Best of all is the chance that the neocons might just be stupid enough to use the new wolf to blow the bank down. Clare Short laments that "it's as though they are trying to wreck our international systems". What a tragedy that would be. I'd sob all the way to the party.

C! :- Sounds like giving them enough rope to hang themselves by .....

pannerClink! A different take....#1310464/9/05; 22:55:08

One could see the Wolfowitz's appointment as yet another sign that we are fast approaching an historic economic inflection point. The neocon's plan for the World Bank is ready to morph into something more prominent than even the esteemed Guardian is willing to venture. Wolfowitz is there to direct and manage the demise of the current system as Martin Jacques suggests, "of breaking the old order", but he is also there to prepare the ground for a new globalist order, centered in Washington, for which he is, in the eyes of his handlers, well suited. Economists are out, they will come later to rationalize and fine tune the cash flows, for now some eggs need to be broken for the new omelet to take shape.
KnallgoldGreat place here!#1310474/10/05; 04:45:46

I've just read last weeks post and wanted to say a belated thanks to all the fine posts,melda laure,Henri,and particularly Smeagol for his Scientific Wealth Standard theorem,being scientist myself this somehow spoke from my heart ;-).The crux is probably here "..and once and for all (to be) disconnected from economic and political influence and control of any kind.."-the link to money.The euro guys try to abandon it completely,but in practice,wealth is nothing else than your monetary potency.

Regarding IMF Gold sale:so there is Another (anglosaxion) bullion bank in trouble (thanks Mr. Brown for announcing it).So what?Why crucify more public Gold for it?Let them eat their own crap and finally take their responsibility for their past actions.Don't tell me because of a few hundred tons of Gold the system will crash,its their looser type cronies needing a parachute.Ah'some innocent people would lose their savings at that bank-well,what means innocent?Its their duty to check where they place their money,GATA and others have tried hard to make this public.The moral hazard of surviving of the unfittest is putting our society/system at danger.If this is the position of the BuBa!?

GeneKnallgold#1310484/10/05; 09:55:58

What bullion bank is in trouble? How much are they short?
Who are the bullion banks? Are JPM, Citi, & G/S bullion banks? I'm asking because I don't know the answers and for no other reason. TIA

TownCrierGene, who they are...#1310494/10/05; 10:54:56

Here is a short list of some of the more prominent bullion banking enterprises to get you started.

Bank of Nova Scotia/ScotiaMocatta
Barclays Bank
Credit Suisse First Boston
Deutsche Bank
Dresdner Bank
Fleet National Bank
Johnson Matthey
JP Morgan Chase
Lehman Brothers
Macquarie Bank
Merrill Lynch
Mitsui & Co
Morgan Stanley
Société Générale
Standard Bank


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.SECOND EDITION: Newly Updated -- Written for Today's Market#1310504/10/05; 11:18:18">Gold Investing - Second Edition
SmeagolSssir Gene's Questions raise another...#1310514/10/05; 12:42:01

...namely, are there any bullion banks that AREN'T gold-short ?


CometoseTHE dawn of the GOLDEN AGE#1310524/10/05; 12:44:35

Lots of interesting scenarios unfolding on a micro scale ( oil, coffee, silver gold , uranium soybeans....Trannies, major market indexes...housing market , mortgage market ,,, ) ........the big picture is also unfolding........

Are we going to have inflation or deflation ....
may depend on what the damand for things is...

Market timer's and Cycles men .......have been looking at the CRB and using that as a guage for what is coming over the next hill........
One market timer was calling for an end of the metals bull several months ago because the CRB had failed to better its highs ........Since that time , the metals rallied ........and oil has continued moving higher hitting a new high of 58 last week.....

The answer to much of the question regarding the future /deflation or inflation ? markets? depends on how long and at what level China continues to suck the world's resources and energy based on her 100 year plan .........
China is a planned economy.

Now since we have moved into the future six months with regard to the CRB underacheiver movement and negative Metals talk from the the Cycles analyst appears that some of them have decided that we are in an extended Metals /Commodities cycle....

It's very interesting watching if watching a chess game being played......with the tv going ....all the tv commentators supplying unnecessary background noise......

The Chinese have a plan to accompany their rise to status of NO 1 world economic engine.....

It is rumored they plan in 100 year denominations and that in order to sustain and support population growth that will rise to 1.5 billion by 2030 , it is necessary to grow their economy by 10% per year until the year 2030.....

That will require energy and oil........ADD COFFEE for synergistic complement.....
China is already buying Africa .....
What will stop China growth ???
Jim Rogers is going with the flow!!!!
Will the rest of the west embrace this new
paradigm???? or are all the players and all of the peices already in place to make the future plans of China a fait accompli????
For China to accomplish this growth, is it required that she continue selling her goods to the Consumption Junkie of the US???or can the internal growth she plans occur on the TBOND collection that she has built ( savings ) ???and cheap labor. Perhaps she can keep her plan moving and perhaps the uss US continue afloat some time simultaneously....Japan has been afloat for the past 15 years since it's market crashed in 89/90.

It is most interesting looking at this in the context of our being in a critical juncture in history with regard to this being a RESERVE CURRENCY OF THE WORLD changing of the which times there are severe was the case when the Pound fell from grace and the dollar took over approximately the time of the GLOBAL DEPRESSION...... It is extremely important at this time to see that the CHINESE government has also saw fit to ,AS WE SPEAK, to make their banks legally become intremediaries to the CHINESE people in the commodity of GOLD AS MONEY AND SAVINGS.......
THEY have not only planned for taking the reigns of the leadership role in the WORLD ECONOMY ; they are planning for the infrastructure growth and sustenance of the CHINESE people with regards to the World's goods.....IN addition, it would appear that the CHINESE government wants to assure that in the initiation phases , development phases, and completion phases of this building process that the CHINESE people have access to and build their savings on REAL WEALTH.....They have hired and have in their service MARC FABER ......who recieved his PHD in economics when he was 25........He is European and I believe is Familiar with the AUSTRIAN SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS and it's solid foundational principles.

.........and now SANITY .......and TRUTH........
on an economic level
are going to call out to you from the most elusive and unpredicable place and from behind the veil of communism.........

Stay tuned ......

GeneSmeagol#1310534/10/05; 13:31:22

Thank you. Wow! I had no idea. I thought just 4 or 5 large institutions were bullion banks. No wonder gold is occasionally overwelmed.It's easy to see now how a little collusion can control the price.With so many involved it's also easy to believe that the collusion has the tacit approval of the regulators or even maybe gov't participation.
PanSince perhabs 20 year`s now UBS and Kredit Swiss sold Gold and Silver to their customers, without buying physical!#1310544/10/05; 14:40:46

In Switzerland for example, all of the banks, inkluding UBS, CS, etc. have sold since many, many years gold and silver to their customers. Banks make all their lokal, and international PM buyer believe, they would own real gold, or silver in a so called "Edelmetall Konto" (precious metal account). But actually, beside the minimal bank requirement of about 10%, there was, and is no physical gold or silver at all. Swiss banks do not anounce the total amount of PM their clients own on "Edelmetall Kontos". But it must be immense. XXXX millions of ounces of gold and silver, can not be returned to the 100tausends of owners of PM on "Edelmetall Kontos" in Switzerland. A gigantic physically naked shortposition in gold and silver! And allmost nobody is talking about this unbelievable potentially selfdestructional behaviour of the swiss banks. Even GATA seams to be unaware of this gigantic scandal.

Think about it again. You are going to a swiss bank, and let them now you like to buy 50 KG of silver. You pay ca. 14000.- CHF + VAT, and the bank gives you a paper who clearly indicate, "We have bougth 50 KG silver for you", and "You have the rigth at 3 any time to ask for physicall delivery of your silver". Throughout the time you "deposit" your "silver", swiss banks lets you pay a pricy deposit fee for something they do not physically own. Year after year!! But there is in reality no silver deposited at all!!!!

When the day comes, on witch the PM owners in switzerland, prefers to physically withdraw their silver, or gold, can you imagine what this actually would means?

A big, big bum!!!!!!

CometosePan / Naked Shorts........Nice Post and Thank You#1310554/10/05; 15:34:54

and all the TED BUTLER's of the WORLD and all the SILVER BUGS of the World thank you ..........that is a very interesting post and very amazing EXPOSE on the present VULNERABILITY of the SILVER MARKET.........

Warren BUFFET knew this in the late 90's when he took 100 million ounces off the market......

Since that time the official US surplus of SILVER which at one time was in the billions of oz is gone ,,,,finished ....kaput......there is no more official gov't reserve to sell off into the the Silver price to hold it down ...... ( during the techno revolution this might have been extremely important to keeping the price of computers down somewhat as there is some in the cirquit boards)

And now it is my understanding that Microsoft's Gates and George Soros are accumulating silver as well....

and in recent months there has been very interesting and repeated talk of offtake of silver on the COMEX in delivery ......being made.........and stocks in the deliverable waning.............

You have convinced me that I would like to take delivery and double my holdings before the masses at these banks get wind that they might not be able to recieve the metals that their bankers have promised that they have access to .

I wonder if the legal code of Europe honors the legal principle of SPECIFIC PERFORMANCE with regard to these contracts that these banks have with these customers??????
I smell multiple class action law suits coming and the failure of these banks......

CometoseBank Gold obligations related to Pan post#1310564/10/05; 16:46:41

Bizarro_Greenspan (Here's the 60,000 tonnes'sportsfans) ID#260332:
Copyright © 2002 Bizarro_Greenspan/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
"ORO ( 10/25/00; 18:17:00MT - msg#: 39916 )
goldhunter - because it is not likely to happen that way.

While your speculative idea of selling short with the trend a couple of posts ago would make sense if banks were speculating on a downturn, I will point out that their behavior is not that of a speculator playing momentum but of a market manipulator directing price to an intended value.

I should point out that gold accounts were not considered in the data before, and those are unreported gold obligations that are not known to anyone. Using currency trading practices ( about which there is detailed data on outstanding accounts ) as a guide to the behavior of the bankers,it is probable that there are about 60000 tonnes of total bank commitments denominated in gold.

Bank capital available officially to close this in terms of dollars allows for only a 25% rise in POG before banks start having regulators run them and at 50% POG rise their obligations get entangled in court.

The problem of banks is not just the price exposure, they themselves have delta-hedged among themselves and have also taken long positions against some hedge funds which are now suffering from the crisis of the corporate and foreign debt markets, where spreads have nearly doubled,[that problem is fixed now,bg] which would put the average hedgie following the standard rules of carry trading deeply in the hole. They are not likely to be able to fulfill any of their obligations.

As a result, the banks have mostly their own capital at risk. Considering the default rates on their assets - a third of which is corporate and foreign debt, they have an additional risk. In the same kind of crisis period that would cause heavy purchases of gold, they would also see the market value of their assets fall substantially. Therefore, the banks in question, who seem to be able to withstand a 10 fold price rise before crying uncle, would actually find that they can't maintain capital adequacy ratios required by international treaties on banking if the dollar, stock market, and corporate bond market tank in either of the following extents within one or two months: 10% ( ? ) , 20%, 5%, respectively. These would be the same kind of conditions that would cause a spike in gold purchases - what would presumably bring about a rise in paper gold markets. The dollar and gold are particularly inversely correlated, while stocks are slightly lower in correlation and bonds are correlated inversely to gold as well.

Therefore, the likelyhood of their having any practical access to the capital needed to cover losses on a gold blowup is unlikely. Even in something as small as Palladium and Platinum, the markets have been destroyed. There is no way to make a leveraged bet in these markets. In these metals, that trade at about 2% of the dollar volumes of gold, prices rose 2 fold over 1 year to arrive at destruction of the markets. To arrive at the dollar loss tolerance on gold, we can take the 100% 1 year price change figure and multiply it by the dollar proportion of the markets, to obtain 2% as the 1 year price rise the banks and exchanges would tolerate without shutting down the leveraged trade. If we look at the whole period in which Pd rose 6 fold, some 3 years, then we have 10% over 3 years, or 3% per year. Even allowing for 10 times the risk capital, one would come to the conclusion that the market can't survive a rise beyond 20-30% in $POG over the space of one year.

By my calculations, bank capital, at market value, is possibly as low as only 40% of its stated value, at a generous 60% allowance for actual relative to official bank capital, if the banks involved suffer no further losses during a gold spike, they are capable of supporting only a 28% spike before they hit regulatory problems at the end of the quarter. At a more realistic ( less optimistic ) set of criteria, they can not sustain any substantial move in gold prices that actually holds under the same conditions that would see a gold spike - when their risk capital is already consumed in covering dollar derivative losses, stock derivative losses, and interest rate spread losses. Allowing 1/4 to gold and each of the other arenas, one has an official capacity for the banks to survive a 35% POG price spike that does not fade quickly. At actual levels, they can only take a 17% rise that sticks.

During the spike, banks can see up to double the 17%, perhaps slightly more, so long as it does not last through a whole quarter."


"So long as it does not last through a whole quarter."

Does that sound remotely familiar to anyone here?

Now,all those gold "deposits"'sold as fire insurance,by the people running the explosives factory,are neither here nor there, as long as the market continues to deliver gold at "par".

They only emerge from the wood pile when paper gold obligations are suspect,up until that time,they are immaterial in the current pricing debate.

However,during the 20 year "gold bear",they were very,very material as much gold demand was sated by selling the antsy rich EuroPigeons thin air gold.Meanwhile the Henderson CB gold leasing/selling gambit worked the other side of the big tent.

When they do emerge though,mASSive PANDAmodium will break out in the aisles of the gold warehouse.

Why do you think Barclay's wants to sell a gold ETF too?

mikalEnergy currents#1310574/10/05; 20:31:21

The Search For Alternative Energy
Cliff Droke - April 10, 2005
A good short commentary on energy woes emphasizing alternative energy advances and feasability.
Energy discussion is fast appearing in unexpected places, the result of punishing or unbearable utility bills, transportation bills, and so on.
But the bright side is, global energy squeezes have been fought peacefully and overcome before and the years of exposure leading to the current vogue must signal a paradigm shift.
Without trying to predict all possible beneficial applications and impacts on society's lifestyles and institutions- academic, cultural, political, scientific, financial, et al- it is welcome exposure, absent needless military weapons hyper-ploriferation.
Diligent gold investors and savers particularly should
at least see long-awaited shifts on some of the world's stages and financial battlegrounds.

GoldiloxAlternative Energy - msg#: 131057#1310584/10/05; 21:07:18

For too many years, apologists have gotten away with the spin that energy must depend on a single source - oil - due to its affordability. Of all the possible outcomes of the cuurent energy scare, the most long-sighted is the renewed interest in alternative sources. No one seriously expects oil to be be replaced at teh top of the energy "food chain" in any near term scenario, but the increasing demand for energy to fuel the growth curve focuses the need to augment supply with energy from other sources.

Hopefully, if funding is increased beyond a few visionaries in their garages, we can ramp up the supply in less than the decades required by unorganized and sometimes suppressed efforts so far.

Every barrel of oil saved by diverting electrical generation to alternate source production is another barrel available for transportation fuel and one less drain on the demand curve.

It often takes crisis or at least preceived crisis to motivate strategic and tactical shifts, as we may be witnessing.

Trying to look for the silver lining . . .

mikalSpelling correction and clarification#1310604/10/05; 21:11:50

From previous post:
"absent needless military weapons hyper-ploriferation":
Means weapons PROLiferation, in excess. Can include weapons smuggling or expropriating and diverting useful
technology under the guise of "Top Secret" to the detriment of society.

MKThe New USAGOLD Market Update is now posted#1310634/10/05; 21:21:22

Excerpts. . .

Gold Market Overview: Stephen Leeb, president of Leeb Capital management told Bloomberg that "High inflation is inevitable, and that will eventually benefit gold. Higher prices for airline tickets or what you're paying at the gas pump: That's just flat-out inflation, and we're seeking hedges. . .Gold prices may double in the next three years."

* * *


Is Anybody Listening?
This past week was a quiet one for gold, but it could very well be the calm before the storm. A vanguard of highly regarded analysts have begun to voice concerns that there is too much complacency in the face of some of the most far-reaching threats to stock market stability in memory. Among these, they point to a new round of corporate scandals mixed with potentially devastating debt and derivative problems in some of the world's largest business enterprises. They throw in an international monetary and economic system at the brink of chaos, and a dollar which could resume its downward bias with a vengeance.

* * *

A new gold market dynamic takes shape
Bernanke to succeed Greenspan?
Why The Diversified Portfolio is the Best Portfolio
A new Short & Sweet
Why ECB chairman Trichet comes up short on gold sales

And more. . . .

Please remember: It is your purchase of gold from USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

TownCrierGold is looking good, says Anglogold#1310644/11/05; 01:22:09

April 11, 2005 -- There is nothing but good news ahead for gold, according to Anglogold Ashanti's chief.

There were positive factors at work influencing both the supply and demand side of the gold market, the mining giant's chief executive Bobby Godsell told the Australian Gold Forum in Perth.

"The current and likely future demand and price for the precious metal is 'unmitigated good news'," Mr Godsell said.

Mr Godsell said gold prices were being pushed up by an increasing interest in non-US dollar investments, gold investors adding to their stocks and new institutions, hedge funds and individuals entering the market.

However, he warned operating margins for gold producers were being squeezed by rising prices for oil, steel, labour...

"Unless producers can manage (to keep) costs down then the price good times will not translate into better margins and earnings," he said.

And discovering the gold was one of the industry's major challenges...

^-----(see url for full article)-----^

The case is made for exchanging your investment dollars for the attractive product (gold metal) rather than putting those same dollars into the companies who are generally struggling to find and produce it at a profit.


TownCrierAngloGold sees gold at/above around $500/oz#1310654/11/05; 02:26:09

(Reuters) PERTH -- World No. 2 gold miner AngloGold Ashanti said it expected gold to soon trade as high as $500 or more per ounce because of a weak US dollar and high jewellery demand...

Gold last topped $500 in 1987.

Demand for gold, traditionally regarded as the currency of last resort, was at its strongest in years thanks to a weakened dollar, which encourages gold buying by investors outside the United States, he said.

Even at today's price, gold is regarded as cheap by some when compared to other commodities -- it takes less than nine barrels of oil to buy one ounce of gold versus a long-term average of 17.5 barrels.

^----(from url)----^

Of the four legit ways to acquire gold:

1) inherit it (or otherwise be given it)
2) find it
3) mine it
4) buy it

generally speaking, method #4 is the only way most of us can reliably count upon to acquire a noteworthy holding.

There is no time like the present to take matters into your own hands, seize the bull by the horns, and start filling your personal treasury with the kind of wealth that never goes out of style.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today. 1-800-869-5115


CoBra(too)Anglo's Bobby Godsell bullish Scenario for Gold#1310664/11/05; 08:21:45

- Is reiterated by James Turk. James sees Gold to appreciate against all Fiat Currencies. I feel his charts are somewhat compelling and give him a lot of credit, even if he's seen the rise of PMs much earlier on.

Getting there - Go Gold ... cb2

Felix the CatThe H.S.I. Under-performed the S&P 500 (GSPC#1310684/11/05; 09:21:28

Interest rate movements over the past couple of months have been within our expectations. We agree with Hongkong Bank's estimate that the prime rate, a reference for the setting Hong Kong mortgage rates, should still have further room for increase, and we expect that the prime rate will probably top out at approximately 6.5-7%. In other words, mortgage interest rates, which are set at P-2.75%, should top out at around 3.75-4.25%.

There could be a similar rate of increase in one-year time deposits to 2-2.5%, but compared with the dividend yield of the Hang Seng Index, which is currently at around 3.4%, and may rise to 3.7% for the coming year, holding stocks remains much more attractive than holding cash unless there is a risk that earnings are going to turn south in the foreseeable future, and reverse the future relationship between deposit rates and dividend yields.

If we use the earnings yield model then the yield gap between deposit rates and the prospective earnings yield of the Hang Seng Index is even higher. At around the 13,650 level, the Hang Seng Index is priced at approximately 15x historical PE or an earnings yield of 6.67%. Assuming an 8% YOY increase in EPS for the current year, the prospective earnings yield will increase to 7.2%, which is substantially higher than the 10-year US government bond yield of 4.5%, which has remained stagnant despite the recent ''aggressive'' increase in federal funds rates.

At the top of a stock investment cycle, which is likely to be in 2006 or the year after, the historical PE of the Hang Seng Index could trade at over 25x, and there is no need to worry about a potential decline in the market in the coming months, which should be very mild compared with the potential upside of 20%-50% that follows the current adjustment, if any.

A more debatable impact on an increase in interest rates is the residential property market. Those homeowners who are not well prepared for a potential increase in interest costs may find their budget too tight. However keep in mind that the average mortgage loan size of a mass residential unit is probably approximately $2 million. A 2% increase in interest rates will increase the monthly interest costs by $3,333. For a middle class nuclear family with a monthly income of, say, $25,000-$40,000, such an increase would reduce the affordability ratio by 10-13%.

According to Ricacorp Property Agency, the monthly mortgage payment as a percentage of average household income remains around 45%. A 2% increase in interest rates will reduce the affordability ratio by 10-13% to 55%-58%, which is still relatively low compared to a record high of close to 100% in 1997, and 80% at a typical bubble-bursting trigger point (such as 1995). Household budgets are definitely getting tight, but they should still be at reasonable levels.

However one may wonder why one should buy a flat instead of renting if annual rental expenses remain at the current level of approximately 3-4% of the properties' market prices, which interest rates are going to rise to over 4%?

One possibility is that rents may rise. The fact is, household incomes have improved, initially from the wealth effect of a recovery in the local property and stock markets, and gradually spread to the bonuses of some commission-oriented servicing industries, and now there are signs that the basic salaries of the working class are going to be raised by a couple of percentage points in 2005. This amount is not meaningful because not all employees benefit from such an increase whilst some more capable employees have had much higher salary upward revisions even in the hostile economic environment between 2001 and 2003, and certain leading industries (such as the property and finance sectors) have seen some wage pressure even since the beginning of 2004.

This explains why the luxury residential market has outperformed the overall market over the past couple of years, followed by some prime-located mass residential areas, but the overall secondary residential market has been inactive until recently.

We have seen the bargaining power has gradually shifted back to the landlord while the supply-demand imbalance improves. With a gradual improvement in the labour market, we expect rents to rise moderately to compensate for the increased interest expenses of the landlords.

There could be a mild setback in the local bourse and the property market, but we expect any potential decline will be within 10%. For most blue chips, the current prices are already attractive enough for a BUY call.

For the property market, we are less certain due to our inability to assess the potential upside of the rents. What we know is that the current market prices have not been excessive if historical records are still useful in projecting the current state of the local property market.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.USAGOLD Market Update, 04-11-05#1310694/11/05; 09:45:49">gold market update

Client Newsletter 04-11-05.

Now posted. . . . .

Is Anybody Listening?

This past week was a quiet one for gold, but it could very well have been the calm before the storm.

A vanguard of highly regarded analysts have begun to voice concerns that there is too much complacency in the face of some of the most far-reaching threats to stock market stability in memory. Among these, they point to a new round of corporate scandals mixed with potentially devastating debt and derivative problems in some of the world's largest business enterprises. They throw in an international monetary and economic system at the brink of chaos, and a dollar which could resume its downward bias with a vengeance.



A new gold market dynamic takes shape

Fleckenstein on the euro and gold

All new Short & Sweet

Plus more. . . . . . . . . .


"Ms. Cross' surprise bullishness may be signalling a change of sentiment where it matters most -- among the bullion desk traders who have produced most of the volume on the short side of the market since the mid-1990s. A new gold market dynamic is beginning to take shape. The next breakout could herald a major move to the upside."

TownCrierOil price worries seen nagging Japan at G7#1310704/11/05; 10:21:50

TOKYO, April 11 (Reuters) - Risks to the global economy from high oil costs will likely dominate Japan's concerns at a meeting of industrial powers this weekend, but it may come under fire itself to do more to boost sputtering Japanese economic growth.

...Domestic firms have also slowly started to feel the heat from higher oil prices now that they are no longer cushioned by the soaring profits they saw last year to offset costs, analysts say. A weaker yen is also driving up import costs.

Japan is expected to join any call from Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers and central bank chiefs to help placate the impact of oil on the world economy.

...The G7, which comprises the United States, Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Britain and Canada, will meet in Washington alongside the spring gathering of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank on Saturday and Sunday.

^-----(from url)------^

The article indicates that the absence of China and the relatively calm currency markets will put discussion of currencies in the back seat at this weekend's meetings.

One would have to think, however, that the participants surely know that structural currency issues are to be found close to the heart of the various inflationary and trade flow imbalances.

Regarding the gold under the IMF umbrella, we should have our answers this weekend, removing a larger degree of uncertainty that has been shrouding the market these past two+ months.

I would expect the resulting market to be bid upwards -- they will be buying on the news because they have already sold on the rumor.

Get in ahead of the game, choose gold today.


Bizarro-Greenspan; 10:26:47

A simple plan?
Bizarro-GreenspanOops#1310724/11/05; 10:28:29

Let's make it easier,it takes a while to load.
TownCrierPeter Hambro Mining sees gold prices reaching 500 usd/oz this yr#1310734/11/05; 10:57:53

LONDON (AFX) - Peter Hambro Mining PLC expects gold prices in the world market to soar to 500 usd per ounce this year, said founder and chairman Peter Hambro.

That price level could have been achieved "sooner" had the European Central Bank not sold off some of its gold holdings a few weeks ago, he told AFX News on the sidelines of the Russian Economic Forum in London.

The ECB surprised the market a few days ago by selling about 47 tonnes of gold and has not ruled out further sales next year.

...Hambro is also not supporting the International Monetary Fund's plan to sell gold.

"The recommendation that the IMF should dispose of its gold is ridiculous," he said.

The IMF owns a little over 2 pct of the world's bullion, worth about 44 bln usd. It has kept the value of the gold holdings at around 40 usd per oz since the early 70s.

However, the US -- the IMF's largest shareholder -- rejected the proposal and is believed to be planning to veto the sale once the G7 meets this week.

^-----(From url)----^

Could the price also have been higher sooner had Peter Hambro (Mining PLC) not been a gold seller?

Perhaps we can accept that some sales are a necessary matter of business for certain entities, and some sales are a necessary matter of "politics" for others. Either way you slice it, the parties involved are seeking an advantage that couldn't otherwise be gained.

Behold the power of gold... even if you cannot yet perceive what advantage down the road has been "bought".

Choose gold today, hand hold the power of advantage at your fingertips -- an ever-ready friend in your future times of need.


TownCrierGold mines under cost pressure#1310744/11/05; 11:09:42

(Reuters) April 11 -- Ten gold mines which account for 90,000 jobs and half of the country's production are making only marginal profits or an outright loss, the South African Chamber of Mines said today.

Gold production fell by 8.8% to 342.7 tonnes in 2004 -- the lowest since 1931...

"While the industry has consistently focused on improving productivity and reducing costs, there are simply too many costs that the industry does not have control of which places inordinate pressure on the sector," the mining body said.

"Given the precarious position of many marginal shafts, failure to reduce the cost pressures will be detrimental to the interests of the stakeholders involved in these shafts, and the country in general."

^----(From url)-----^

Again the case is made to invest your money in the timelessly reliable final product (gold metal) rather than in the precariously positioned production companies plucking their fruits from a withering tree, so to speak.


TownCrierSouth Africa's golden sunset#1310754/11/05; 11:28:43

JOHANNESBURG ( -- Uncontrollable costs are adding inordinate pressures on South Africa's gold industry (the world's largest producer), which has accelerated the demise of older shafts, says the South African Chamber of Mines.

According to a release by the Chamber on Monday...

"The precipitous fall in production was caused by the dual impact of the fall in the rand gold price and the continued upward rise in costs (due in most part to costs outside of the control of the mining companies," said a Chamber release, "which has accelerated the demise of older shafts."

Cost increases over the past three years include, an 18 percent rise in water prices, 30 percent higher steel prices than comparable countries, while labour, which comprises about 50 percent of production costs, rising higher than inflation over the past two years. Unions have already thrown out a 10% increase for 2005, compared to inflation of 4.3%.

"The average increase in total production costs excluding capital expenditure rose by 13.4% year-on-year in 2004 versus only 1.4% for headline inflation and 4.3% for CPIX inflation," said the statement...

There are no signs that the rate of decrease in production may be levelling out as the biggest tonnage fall came in the second half of 2004, where 20.2 tonnes less gold was produced compared to the last six months of 2003. 10-years since 1995, South Africa's gold production has fallen 34.4% or by 179.7 tonnes.

^----(from url)----^

Peak oil got your undies in a bunch? Try "peak gold" on for size.

When choosing between a gold bar (or coin) and a gold mining share, consider which one will definitely still be around in a thousand years. You'll then have a pretty good idea which one you can therefore also reliably count upon during the interim years -- the years that are especially relevant to your personal timeframe.

Choose the metal. Choose peace of mind.


TownCrierInside privileges == German Fin Min Says China Mulling Currency Revaluation#1310774/11/05; 12:04:13

FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--German Finance Minister Hans Eichel said China is thinking hard about revaluing its currency the yuan, a finance ministry spokesman confirmed Monday.

German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, in an interview to be published Tuesday, will quote Eichel as saying "I know...that China is currently thinking very hard about revaluing its currency."

^------(from url)-----^

Maybe some gold to help grease the wheels of change and progress......(?)


Bizarro-GreenspanHoltzman,10/10/2000,USAGOLD forum#1310784/11/05; 12:19:14

Bridge Over Troubled Water

When I see futures enthusiasts and various of the physical faithful going at one another over price discovery, the image that comes to mind is of two civil engineers arguing over a bridge. The futurist is saying that the bridge has to date served well in its intended function and that, all else being equal, it ought to carry on serving well for many generations to come. The physicals are saying that the name of the bridge might be Tacoma Narrows, and that bridge builders and bridge users alike should never forget that Nature enjoys surprising the complacent.

My old reference to the paper money issued during the U.S. Civil War remains applicable here. Union greenbacks were, for all practical purposes, futures contracts. They were promises that the U.S. government would exchange them at face value for metal coin at some stage following cessation of hostilities. During the early years of the war when consumer confidence remained high, the price of any item was the same in paper dollars as in physical (coin) dollars. But as the war ground on towards what seemed the end of civilisation, consumer confidence eroded and paper began to diverge from physical.

One day, a merchant might sell an item at five dollars in coin but require six dollars if paid in paper. The next day, that same merchant might require a seventh paper dollar because he'd just heard word from the front that things weren't going well. The day afterward, good news from the front might bring his prices back to parity.

Goldhunter makes a very valid point that the chart lines of Spot gold and the various Future golds closely mirror one another, and that the price differences between them are a consistently applied discount against the future value of money. This is an accurate description of a very well-architected bridge under normal conditions.

Aristotle and Asher by contrast make an equally valid point that it's the assumptions you do not realise you're making which lead you into the worst trouble. Just because the bridge is beautiful, state of the art, well watched and has served without incident for a century does not mean it cannot begin to collapse this afternoon.

The palladium market over the past year has very closely resembled the greenbacks/coin relationship I described above. The price of a one-ounce coin of physical palladium from day to day jumps around in only loose proportion to either the official spot or various future prices of market-traded palladium. History is replete with instances of the value of promises becoming suddenly and drastically different from the value of delivered goods. These instances are seldom long-lived but, like mere wind, they can destroy in moments what it took whole lifetimes to build."

Groundhog hog day grinds on and on for us pathetic gold dwarves.

"The gold bank run,this is a future event."


Has anyone noticed how ORO brought the Economic Hit Man economic growth "strategy" to the table right here many,many moons ago.

For a while,I thought the EHM might be ORO.

Then I read the book,the EHM is just bobbing in ORO's wake.

TownCrierBizarro-Greenspan, our resident ORO devotee#1310794/11/05; 13:29:19

There is a saying, variously applied but befitting a well-rounded or widely-versed person: "jack of all trades, master of none".

Insofar as one can deduce from a body of postings, ORO possessed a working knowledge of a wide body of material. A "jack of all trades" if I may.

However... at the risk of offending you or exposing my own ignorance, I am at a loss to pinpoint the mastery that you imply when saying essentially that we are all bobbing in his wake.

Therefore, if you would indulge me this one question, I would put it to you simply:

"What was the crux of ORO's economic insights that incrementally provide for the advancement of the human condition?"

Or more simply still:

"If he provided a roadmap, is the indicated trail one of enduring relevance?"

It is my recollection that he chose routes over bridges that were incapable of bearing the load and would be broken in the early crossing. That is no kind of trail to leave to your children following behind.

If you are in a position to tackle my question, it would be kind of you to show me where I have erred in my conclusion.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1310804/11/05; 14:42:30">
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Monday market excerpts

Gold tops $430 on soft dlr, trade gap expectations
April 11 (from DowJones) -- Fund buying and a softer U.S. dollar enabled gold futures to finish higher, June gold settled up $1.60 to $430.40.

The metal peaked at $431.70, its strongest level since March 23. May silver got up to $7.30, its most muscular level since March 21. "We've had a strong rise in both," said Jim Steel, director of futures research in New York with Refco.

"The dollar is very much on the retreat, and I think that is the basis of the rally." As gold was closing, the euro had risen to $1.2993 from $1.2933 last Friday.

"It looks as if both metals are moving out of this corrective period they've had over the last week or so, and we still have good physical buying," Steel said.

"All indications are the physical demand is quite good. We have had a reintroduction of the funds on the long side."

Steel characterized gold's and silver's gains as "impressive," considering that energy futures continued their decline. As gold closed, May crude was down 67 cents to $52.65, well down from last week's $58.28 contract high.

"It shows that gold is strong independent of other commodities," said Steel.

The market's more immediate focus on Tuesday morning will be the monthly U.S. trade report. The February deficit is expected to widen to $58.8 billion from $58.3 billion in January. The report is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, prices)----

TownCrierGold predicted to hit US$500 an ounce#1310814/11/05; 15:06:27

(New Zealand Herald) -- The price of gold will soon be trading around US$500 an ounce because of a weak greenback and high demand...

^-----(from url)-----^

Same story cropping up everywhere. Seems the hedgers are sounding the all-clear signal and the public is finally being given the go-ahead to participate.

There's no rush like a gold rush... a little enthusiasm goes a long way, so don't look for constant drummings like you always saw promoting stocks on the financial news networks... it won't be necessary with gold.


TownCrierFun coin facts: Little euros flying high#1310824/11/05; 15:19:28

April 12 -- A huge inflation of the value of the euro has followed the deaths of the leaders of the two smallest countries in the world.

The exchange rate of the vast bulk of euros in circulation is untouched. But the value of the small quantities of euro coins minted by the Vatican and the principality of Monaco threatens to go through the roof.

Since the deaths of Pope John Paul II and Prince Rainier, their price has exploded.

A two-euro Vatican coin is fetching 160 on the European coin-collecting market...

A Monaco 1 piece can now command up to $60.

The Vatican, Monaco and San Marino are permitted to mint a token quantity of euros carrying their "national" symbols.

^----(from url)----^

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TownCrierDollar wobbles as investors position themselves for US trade data#1310834/11/05; 15:41:49

LONDON : The dollar wobbled against the euro, with investors selling the US currency as they sought to limit risks ahead of the possible announcement Tuesday of another huge trade deficit in the United States.

Some sections of the market are of the opinion that US trade data for February will show a wider deficit than the 59 billion dollars expected ... given the strength of the US domestic demand.

The prospects of dollar falls will be even greater if a widening of the deficit is accompanied by a downbeat report on portfolio flows into the United States in data due on Friday.

The data will reveal if the flow foreign funds into US assets was sufficient to cover the country's trade gap. There is speculation that some hedge funds moved away from US Treasuries in February...

"Neither report is expected to bring good news...," said Daniel Katzive at UBS.

^-----(from url)----^

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Who knew that something so good for you could be so simple as one-stop shopping... for gold. Get it done right here at USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals, Inc., serving investors since 1973.


GoldiloxBigger than NAFTA#1310844/11/05; 18:45:26


By Nirmala George Associated Press Writer
Published: Apr 11, 2005

NEW DELHI (AP) - India and China, the world's two most populous countries, agreed on Monday to create a "strategic partnership" in an effort to end their longstanding border dispute and boost trade and economic cooperation.

The agreement signaled a significant shift in relations between the two Asian giants after decades of mutual distrust and suspicion.

"India and China can together reshape the world order," Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said after a welcome ceremony for his Chinese counterpart, Premier Wen Jiabao, at India's presidential palace.

Together the two nations account for one-third the world's population.

The statement announcing the partnership was signed by both premiers and said the agreement would promote diplomatic relations, economic ties and contribute to the two nations "jointly addressing global challenges and threats."

India-China relations have "acquired a global and strategic character," it said.


Defensive maneuvering as the labor "carry trade" starts to weaken?

The Invisible HandSit back, relax and enjoy!#1310854/11/05; 18:51:51 htm

Title "The Economic Tsunami: Sooner Than You Think"

a recent report indicates that two-thirds of the world's 65 central banks have already "begun to move from dollars to euros."

The Invisible HandURL#1310864/11/05; 18:57:31

This one may work.
SmeagolSsirs TC and Bizarro-Greenspan...Oro...Bridges#1310874/11/05; 21:00:12

From what we have sseen of thiss Modern Age, any bridge, sstrong or weak, cobbled-together or massterfully planned, even made of Gold... whether they carry one on the right Path or not, precious...sss... they can sstill be bombed.


Gandalf the WhiteNICE US$ Chart downward ROLLER-COASTER ride today ! <;-)#1310884/11/05; 21:06:35

Will the LOW of 84.05 be broken tomorrow ?
SURE it will !
BIG WATERFALLS to come soon.

Gandalf the WhiteWhat's that Sir Smeagol ?#1310894/11/05; 21:10:05

You said something about hearing that the Castle Trumpeters have been given a new schedule for assembly ?
Where do you get these stories ?

SmeagolSsss.... Eh? #1310904/11/05; 23:28:21

Ssir Gandalf... how do you expect uss to ssneak properly, if you keep checking that crysstal ball at all hours? We promises we won't tell anyone about the upcoming Con- ach! sshh! shut up, precious!


968French Industry Minister says oil industry should sell in euros, not dollars#1310914/12/05; 05:12:38

PARIS (AFX) - French Industry Minister Patrick Devedjian said the international markets should price crude oil in euros, not dollars as at present, as it is a more stable currency.
'One could insist on an international scale, in order to have better (price) stability, that the euro become the currency for oil transactions,' Devedjian said on Radio J.
'It's a political position that Europe could support... We are suggesting Europe adopts this policy.'
But Devedjian admitted that 'we shouldn't dream, there will not be pricing only in euros' and that transactions would still take place in dollars and other currencies.
Devedjian believes speculation is behind at least 15 usd of the price of each barrel of oil.
Crude for May delivery stood at 53.32 usd a barrel in the US at the end of trade Friday.
Devedjian also proposed moves towards better visibility and management of European oil stocks to discourage speculation.
'Countries with large stocks could literally intervene on the market when there is strong speculation.'
To prevent speculation 'we also need a firm dialogue with producing nations so that productive investments can take place,' he said.
But he dismissed the notion of France reintroducing its TIPP floating fuel tax, saying it is not effective.
He warned that if oil prices remain above 50 usd per barrel throughout 2005 this would be 'very bad news' for French growth and jobs.
Copyright AFX News Limited 2005. All rights reserved.
"It's a political decision that Europe could support..."
Remember FOA : "...the dollar is no longer politically supported, only structural..."

TopazBond/Oil.#1310924/12/05; 05:37:22

Apart from the Goldman inspired "irrational exuberance" spike around Apr-1, the Oil price has been a glove-fit with Bond Yields recently ...implying exactly WHY those "foreigners" hold T's.

When this relationship breaks, THEN we MAY see some serious migration out of the Dollar/Bonds imho.

968ECB's weekly financial statement.#1310934/12/05; 07:18:58

Gold and gold recievables : minus 0,034 billion euros.
Net foreign currency position : minus 0,1 billion euros.

New positions :
Gold and gold recievables : 128,024 billion
Net foreign currency position : 159,300 billion

The ECB's net foreign currency position exceeds their gold position by only 24,42% !

Clink!Confused in Florida#1310944/12/05; 07:27:24

Dear Forum,
Can someone explain the dynamic here, please ? On news this morning that the US trade deficit broke previous records and analyst's expectations (surprise !), the USDX spikes up by over 0.5% (so far). Thinking that an ever-increasing deficit would tend to decrease the value of the dollar, this knee-jerk somewhat surprises me. Am I alone ?

J-Bullionconfused in Florida#1310954/12/05; 07:39:59

Please read Orwell's 1984. Black is white, white is black, up is down...etc...

I can't wait until the trade deficit is 1 trillion/month. Imagine the dollar strength then?

The Hoople(No Subject)#1310964/12/05; 07:41:19

February trade deficit @ 61B is 2.18B per day = 67.58B for a 31 calender day month. But wait, if you throw in oil at the $50+ per barrel instead of the $36.85 declared the number would be closer to 72 billion, or 864 billion annual rate. We are bearing down on TRILLION dollar annual real deficits. Result? Euro off a point, dollar screaming higher, gold & silver clocked, bond steady, S-P off a couple points. Nope, I don't see any manipulation anywhere. That's not a 10 ton elephant standing in my front yard either. It's my neighbors' poodle.
MKDollar rally#1310974/12/05; 07:55:51

It is difficult to understand how the dollar could pull a rally out of the very bad numbers published in today's trade report.

First, the trade deficit was a RECORD $61 billion and $2.5 billion higher than estimates.

Second, US exports have averaged about $100 billion per month with little gain. This is sending a painful message to U.S. policy makers. Dollar weakness thus far has done little to improve the export picture. In other words, the dollar is going to have become a great deal cheaper and stay cheaper over a longer period of time in order to even address, let alone correct, the imbalance.

Third, the oil import numbers were based on an average oil price of $36.85 per barrel, according to this morning's CBS Marketwatch report. If based on the current price of oil, the deficit would have widened by another roughly $5 billion to $66 billion.

No matter how you cut it, this report is awful news and how the market could trade the dollar higher and gold lower in the face of it is beyond my understanding.

It'll all come out in the wash.

GoldiloxDollar Rally and Trade Deficit#13109804/12/05; 08:41:51

Even though the currency market is in the trillions, the actual number of participants is probably much smaller than other markets, given that only banks and large corporations (with a few Buffett and Soros types in the corp fray) are regular players.

My gut impression is that it is every bit susceptible to manipulation since a few large participants can throw the bid/ask relationship off kilter with some very large orders.

The question is (as MK's post suggests) how long can they maintain control before some other participants decide to cut ranks and run?

Trading is like a game of "chicken", with drivers speeding at directly each other full tilt until one veers off course.

Many analysts have suggested that the longer the dollar is held up the harder it will fall, with the benefit being political timing, but the outcome not really in question.

OvSMK#13109904/12/05; 08:47:44

Maybe the tillerman is stirring the
following course:
Manage the oilprice higher. China,
Japan, Europe et al have to buy oil
with all those accumulated dollars,
and OPEC buys them US treasuries???
Way to go, tillerman. For a while,at
least; then the next backgammon move.

phil288dollar rally#13110004/12/05; 08:49:03

In my opinion this dollar rally was and is thoroughly predictable. With the miserable balance of payment results, TPTB were forced to support the dollar and trash gold. GATA has been talking about this for years. It will continue to work this way until it does'nt any more. None of us knows when the change will occur. When it does the result will be unexpected, dramatic and your meneuvering room for protection will be very narrow. USA gold can help provide you with protection now. Got Gold.
OvSGoldilox#13110104/12/05; 08:58:35

Throw into the mix of participants
the streamlined Central Banks and
your post is starting to make sense.
There is this very stealthy entity
making them understand to be reason-
able and only the shadow of a big
stick is lazily hanging nebulously
over those suggestions...:-( or :-)?

Currencies forever. Up and Down.

Knallgold"Since perhabs 20 year`s now UBS and Kredit Swiss sold Gold and Silver to their customers, without buying physical!"--Pan#13110204/12/05; 09:02:32

Back then,when I wanted to buy PHYSICAL Gold for the first time into my portfolio,I told exactly this.Of course he replied "ah,you want a Goldmetal account" I insisted "no,I want it physically,allocated".He didn't even know how to do this and had to ask someone.After this happened a second time,I said "hell,are you a bank or what?" and I quit with that suisse credit bank.

It has been always a reflex to sell a metal account,I know this also from others.If you insisted on physical you were ALWAYS ridiculed.Lets call for an audit of this swiss banks!

GoldiloxFifteen NYSE Specialists indicted by US Attorney#13110304/12/05; 09:02:35

CNBC is showing David Kelley of the US Attorney's office reading and explaining the indictment.

The casino continues to be fleeced by insiders, and a few naughty children must be spanked, while CEOs and directors are selling their options at all time high ratios.

None of the public watchdogs will touch the Barrick suit or the political fleecings made by the buyers of 911 airline puts. Instead they will assuage the public by offering up few "small potatoes" offenders for sacrifice.

None of this is good for the market bulls, but CNBC has recently been parading out the likes of Abby Joseph Cohen to fuel the pump and dump.

A quick glance at some charts will remind one that the current "recovery" has brought the SM indices to about 95% of their 2003 close. Any drop from here makes the DOW theorists Elliot wavers look brilliant.

Might wanna get some portfolio insurance, but probably not the kind offered by derivatives, AIG, and the other "insurance casinos".

GoldiloxPhysical accounts#13110404/12/05; 09:22:55

@ Knallgold,

MK's staff will NEVER balk at allocating your funds into physical like the banksters. Jonathan even has a list of reputable storage houses and IRA custodians for US clients - hopefully there are analogues on both sides of the pond.

Cavan ManAnswer to MK's conundrum.....#13110504/12/05; 09:26:37

currency war
Maga Circe @ Topaz Bond/Oil#13110604/12/05; 09:27:16

Hi all from a long time daily lurker.
Topaz, could you elaborate on your previous comment?
Why do bonds follow oil prices so closely?
Maga Circe

The HoopleMK#13110704/12/05; 09:30:31

It is revealing to me the "all calm" message being given the markets when an SOS is more appropriate. Enrons' "all calm" message worked until one day irrevocably it didn't. How can anyone possibly do the trade deficit math and come to a bullish conclusion on the fate of the dollar? At the current clip will foreigners take 4 trillion dollars of IOU's over the next 5 years? Not likely if downright impossible. Will there one day be a Mexican Peso event when the dollar overnight suffers a 30% devaluation? I would have been less unnerved had they let gold float up to its customary $6 collar and let the dollar drop by the usual 30-50 pts. If markets are truly forward-looking they would know the trade deficit number coming in March is even more horrific and the trend is going HIGHER, not lower. Today feels like the infamous VP Cheney remark about deficits not mattering. If it is an Enron play and the dumpster is the eventuality anyway indeed it doesn't matter, at least if you are the sellers of FRN's. The buyers of FRN's will beg to differ.
GoldiloxTrade deficit numbers#13110804/12/05; 09:32:24


The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total February exports of $100.5 billion and imports of $161.5 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $61.0 billion, $2.5 billion more than the $58.5 billion in January, revised. February exports were $0.1 billion more than January exports of $100.4 billion. February imports were $2.6 billion more than January imports of $158.9 billion.


Nice breakdown of the numbers over at - The deficit continues to grow as US manufacturing continues to contract. February's record $58.5B gap was easily overwhelmed by March's $61B for a 2.56% increase.

DruidOil/Dollar#13110904/12/05; 09:42:03

Just my thoughts, the 800 pound gorilla is the oil/dollar connection for invoicing oil in dollars. As long as this mechanism is in place, there will be a built-in demand component for dollars and dollar usage and the continued expansion of credit.

From the dollar faction standpoint, The issue of Iran and the Iranian government attempting to go online and implement an oil trading platform in euros and dollars is a pivotal point in time as it relates to dollar usage.

MKCavan Man, Hoople#13111004/12/05; 10:10:57

Looks like we might be getting the "true" reaction to the trade deficit in the stock market -- DJIA down 70 points.

C-Man -- Currency war. Yes, but this will be the strangest war in history. The objective will be to protect and defend the other country's flag.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.#13111104/12/05; 10:14:55">Get a head start on the gold market!
SurvivorTrade Deficit, Dollar, and Gold#13111204/12/05; 10:28:38

Watching this surreal picture of a dismal trade figure accompanied by the irrational dollar rally and gold drop - I'm reminded of those folks on the Indonesian beaches who watched in fascination as the sea withdrew illogically before them - not realizing that a tsunami of disaster and dissorder was about to wash over them.

All aboard the Golden ARk . . .

- Survivor

TownCrierSurvivor, (msg#131112)!!#13111304/12/05; 10:33:53

You get the prize for the most insightful analogy of the week.


Great Albino BatExtracted from a letter received today:#13111404/12/05; 11:00:09

"Thus, it is world control through money and not the money itself that governs, a very important distinction pointed out by J. W. von Goethe two hundred years ago in Faust Part II. He, and Byron, were the most astute economists of their time understanding that the create of fictitious bank credit had as its sole purpose political control and rule of the world.

"The charges now are that the increase in the oil price is a way to weaken the financial powers of Asia who are troubled by their accumulation of dollars by taking them away in a high oil price...."


In other words, "You have a problem with too many dollars? We'll take care of that; oil will cost you $100 + Dollars a barrel and you will soon have no problem with too many Dollars..."


TownCrierStock Market to Feel Pinch as Funds Start to Cut#13111504/12/05; 11:10:51;jsessionid=IEI21CE3OV41ACRBAEKSFEY?type=reutersEdge&storyID=8156905

LONDON (Reuters) - Equity markets are in for a bit of a rough time over the next few months if recent positions being talked up by large investors are anything to go by.

...investment strategists have been calling for more cautious portfolio allocations to equities and some have started pulling money out of stocks.

"Investing in shares is becoming increasingly risky," Banque de Luxembourg told clients in its latest strategy note.

Merrill Lynch Investment Managers has taken its first negative stance to equities since mid-2002.

"The next several months are about not putting a lot of risk on the table and being careful about when you do."

"The buzzword for portfolio strategy from now on is: Watch out!" Franco-Belgian firm Dexia Asset Management said in its April note.

One problem for investors is where to put the money they take from equities. Higher interest rates and worries about inflation do nothing to make fixed income (bonds, CDs) attractive.

Reuters asset allocation polls last month showed a general move into cash...

^------(from url)-----^

When you consider the above situation together with dollar's tenuous position in the currency markets, with the federal goverment budget deficit and failing international political appetite to let US debt chronically offset our trade gap, and in light of falling physical mine output from South Africa, the only conclusion to draw is that the stars are aligned for the market in PHYSICAL GOLD.


Buongiorno!trade numbers#13111604/12/05; 11:15:09

@Survivor and MK--right on, gentlemen! Now consider that the record 61 BB deficit was spent in the shortest month of the year. If we adjust February's 28 days to the average 30.4 days in a month, we get...(drum roll please) 66.22 BB!

Then add the 4-5 BB for oil price increases since Feb., and we may project March's deficit at over 70 BB. Hang on to yer hat! (I may have a big glass of dry Italian Red a little early today.)


CoBra(too)Uh, Oh, keep the delusion alive -#13111704/12/05; 11:23:23

***MK (04/12/05; 10:10:57MT - msg#: 131110)
Cavan Man, Hoople
Looks like we might be getting the "true" reaction to the trade deficit in the stock market -- DJIA down 70 points.

C-Man -- Currency war. Yes, but this will be the strangest war in history. The objective will be to protect and defend the other country's flag. ***

... As long as possible, that is; Who wants to get blamed with the final destruction of a construct of monetary blasphemy!?

Charles De Gaulle did it ... and unfortunately he prepared the way for todays macabre death dance of Western economies, based on debt alone, called credit! What a farce!

John Law must be rejoicing in his grave; Though the situation becomes more grave as the US is now forcing up to 100% of the rest of the worlds savings to complement their trade deficit alone!

... A system built on a hegemonial Dollar Reserve currency on pure faith and credit of the US... Great, now we know credit is a synonym for debt in FED-speak - it follows that there may be no intention at all to honor its debt obligations.

And lastly, who wants to hold any US assets as the political agenda becomes clear? Even if there would be way to pay off the debt, though there isn't, the question is only - who will flinch first!

Sad state of affairs my favoured country was managed into by nincompoops .... Neocon's and other imbeciles ...

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.REMINDER: USAGOLD Market Update, 04-11-05#13111804/12/05; 11:24:39">gold market update

Client Newsletter 04-11-05.

Now posted. . . . .

Is Anybody Listening?

This past week was a quiet one for gold, but it could very well have been the calm before the storm.

A vanguard of highly regarded analysts have begun to voice concerns that there is too much complacency in the face of some of the most far-reaching threats to stock market stability in memory. Among these, they point to a new round of corporate scandals mixed with potentially devastating debt and derivative problems in some of the world's largest business enterprises. They throw in an international monetary and economic system at the brink of chaos, and a dollar which could resume its downward bias with a vengeance.



A new gold market dynamic takes shape

Fleckenstein on the euro and gold

All new Short & Sweet

Plus more. . . . . . . . . .


"Ms. Cross' surprise bullishness may be signalling a change of sentiment where it matters most -- among the bullion desk traders who have produced most of the volume on the short side of the market since the mid-1990s. A new gold market dynamic is beginning to take shape. The next breakout could herald a major move to the upside."

Great Albino BatThoughts on the Dollar Reserve System and Globalization....#13111904/12/05; 11:25:48

The International Monetary System which is based on a fiat dollar and which turns ALL currencies (except, perhaps, the Euro) into DERIVATIVES OF THE DOLLAR, is...

Like the venom which a spider injects into its victims, and which liquifies all its internal organs, which can then be sucked out by the spider.

The result is the HOMOGENIZATION of all mankind, the loss of all DIVERSITY and the reduction of all humans into one amorphous, undifferentiated mass, to feed the predator.

Only REAL MONEY, gold or silver as property in the hands of individuals, can preserve humanity from this insidious and deadly HOMOGENIZATION.

Fight HOMOGENIZATION! Buy physical gold and silver!



"The current summit in Hanover between the Federal Chancellor of Germany, Gerhard Schroeder, and the visiting Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has brought forth eight new agreements on bilateral cooperation..."
" Gazprom, Russia's largest producer of natural gas, has made arrangements with Germany's BASF for cooperation in the energy industry."..

Great Albino Bat"That old black magic has us in its spell..."#13112104/12/05; 11:37:49

2004 Trade deficit was $666 billion.

How about $720 billion for 2005?

For Greenie:

Old black magic has us in its spell
Old black magic that you weave so well
Those Icy fingers up and down my spine
The same old witchcraft when the billions shine

Same old tingle that I feel inside
And then that elevator starts its ride
Down and down I go
Round and round I go
Like a leaf caught in the tide

I should stay away but what can I do
I need some bucks, and I'm a flame
flame, burning desire
That only your Fed notes
Put out the fire...

miner49erCounterintuitive $ spiking?#13112204/12/05; 11:44:26

I see everyone getting all confounded everytime the dollar "rallies" on news that should intuitively send it downward. Is there any plausibility to the notion that what is happening are really short term dollar shortages?

Remember, our trade deficit dollars are not sitting out in foreign banks. Many people talk about when these dollars come home to roost, look out... Well, they already have come home to roost, and do so regularly, balancing our deficits by swelling our capital account. In other words, mountains of dollar assets sit out there in the wings -- not dollar cash.

While kadrillions of dollar credits have been created, they are all wrapped up in a plethora of dollar denominated assets. People go to liquidate these assets, and are effectively buying dollars. At any given time, the demand for dollars -- in dollar cash units -- can overwhelm the relatively inadequate amount of actual liquid dollar cash units available, causing the spiking like we see today. This could very well be strategic, in that it is a self-regulating throttle on dollar asset dumping. A disincentive to dollar asset dumping is created by the exchange rate spike. Not halted, but slowed down, until the spikes abate.

This would also help slow down the effects of the flipside of all this, in that once these asset sellers have their cash, they obviously want to do something with it. Cash seeking goods invites price inflation -- which is another discussion -- that's what people are really worried about above, when dollars come out of the illimitable paper capital assets, and look to settle upon real goods and services...

But probably most of the cash is seeking other currencies and their assets, which leads to perhaps a too much/too soon appreciation of these currencies. This invites speculation, naturally. In the most primitive scenario, speculators may work this trend by shorting the dollar on its spikes, exacerbating the spike, and providing even more rapidly the disincentive mentioned above. Then when they cover on the dives, they themselves help slow down, even reverse temporarily the descents.

All this is perhaps understood and strategically welcomed, by both the dollar camp, as well as the non-dollar camp, which still has to deal with export competitiveness. Effectively all these non-dollar camp dollar holders are trying to ease out of their dollar exposure, all the while denying that this is what's happening to avoid a run.

Anyway, just a thought, as I gotta run.

Bizarro-GreenspanTown Crier,on ORO#13112304/12/05; 12:01:11

By the way,thanks very much for asking.I have a lot of respect for your opinions and analysis on the gold markets-s-s as well.

Out there in cyber-gold land,I am regarded as somewhat of a wing-nut/wackaloon,I don't care a whit about that.

We might as well have some fun,we all know this "gold war" is going to be the most protracted in the long history of mankind and our search for an honest and always reliable means of exchange in which to conduct trade.

That said,I take this subject very seriously and read reams of opinions from all the gold blatherers on the blatherscope.From that,I try and form my own scenarios as to where our monetary destination lies as this neverending melodrama/sit-com unfolds before our eyes.

Hence,it is very gratifying when someone I respect asks for my thoughts.

Here's an example of why I find ORO so unique,

"ORO (06/17/01; 20:06:29MT - msg#: 56316)
Econoclast - stable money can't be managed
Econoclast, I am sad that you buy the UN free-gold concept which has much nice sounding fatherly advice around it but no mechanism to suggest that it would or could work.

In order to justify the concept FOA and Aristotle, and to some extent Randy and Aragorn III essentially had to come out and deny the unavoidable arguments against their position:

1. That wealth bears a discount rate, an interest rate embedded in the absolute and relative prices of all things.

Which preferences of the people can only be fully expressed in debt contracts contracted without interference from a cartel of monetary managers trying to fool them into putting resources into profitless ventures.

2. That people can, do, and must write contracts where real goods of today are lent, traded, split and collected back together in different forms with different paper and are contracted out for future delivery even decades into the future.

3. That there is no way to "manage" a monetary system effectively.

4. That for a pure debt currency it is impossible to retain value, as it loses value as it is inflated, and loses further value as it deflates.

5. That Gresham's Law reads "good money drives out the bad, unless they trade at par, in which case bad money drives out the good until par is broken, at which point the first condition resumes".

Further that the expected demise of the bullion banks that fix the par for the dollar into the future would be a break of par. Given that no par is planned for the Euro, it would automatically be the bad money without par.

6. That the financial markets trade mostly honest debt contracted by predominantly honest motives of actual investment of real goods in real productive capacities for the benefit of the investors, the intermediaries and all consumers of the future goods and services they will produce.

7. That these are thwarted by arbitrary decisions of financial markets regulators and the monetary managers, and thereby intensify and deepen errors of judgment of investors and the entrepreneurs putting their future and their reputations on the line.

That these same regulators and managers are just as likely to be motivated by an interest in destroying the marketplace as they are to prefer attempting to serve and preserve it.

8. That the the concept of broad "tradable wealth" where everything under the sun is used for savings is exactly the market distortion that inflation causes in the structure of the economy, where people suffer from the accumulation of unwanted goods while denying their use to those who do want them, all out of fear of their currency assets being inflated away.

The keys to understanding the success of free market money; gold, are the following:

1. At any and all points in time, the gold used as money is there at a limited quantity, thereby preventing or inhibiting outlandish booms (and the resulting busts) that arise from unlimited expansion of cash, a characteristic of fiat money.

2. Because of the limited gold liquidity, financial intermediaries are constantly competing with each other for liquidity, thus assuring that it flows to the most sound institutions rather than to the most politically well connected. Those institutions that expand credit without their borrowers generating a proportional return get their clock cleaned as their reserves are raided by other institutions and they are forced into liquidation with their depository and borrowing customers moving to better performing firms.

This natural competitive process nips credit expansions in the bud before over investment or under investment get a head of steam, since the gold liquidity is directly related to the real, non-financial economic resources through a well defined quantity of gold (go ask Greenspan what the money supply is) which circulates in the economy, and where prices are close to balance with the existing quantities of gold.

3. Where the production of gold (the supply) decreases when gold credit expands, and expands as gold credit contracts or as technology and productivity improve the profitability of gold mining, thus automatically measuring the actual impact of productivity enhancing technologies on the economy and inducing more gold to flow into the market as productivity increases, without resorting to odd theories, without waiting to convince anyone that it is or is not appropriate to increase money supply or restrict it. If productivity actually increased, the technology causing this improvement should be applied in gold mining as well and result in increased gold output, if productivity does not increase, then the amount of gold produced will fall as the easier ores are depleted, leaving only more expensive ores behind.

4. A natural stop for the deflation of debt is always present in the stock of gold which can pay off a large portion of the debt. This sets a natural limit on deflation.

5. No manager. The free market gold system does not have a manager and therefore allows people to contract forwards into the future at the rates they agree upon of their own free will in billions of individual transactions rather than at rates set by a blind and self interested manager.

6. When gold is used in this way it obtains its best value. It becomes the only thing for which there is a monetary premium. People do not need to keep unwanted products in their homes and in the many storage facilities for savings. Instead they save gold. Thus the demand for gold is at its maximum."

TownCrierSA's MNCWANGO says...#13112404/12/05; 12:10:49

When Lesego Mncwango from the South African Chamber of Mines was recently interviewed, he had the following to say regarding the prohibitively high cost of factors of production -- labor and steel, for example -- as related to the low cost of gold impairing the viability of South African gold mines.

Is it time for us to ... maybe, to just let go, and wait for inputs that are beyond our control to come back, and then take a fresh look?

We believe in this industry ... We just need to do certain things right, now, to ensure that we continue to get value out of our assets.

In terms of the mines - yes, they are mature, and they would require great advances in technology to make a lot of them a lot more profitable than they are right now, but there are certain things in our control that we can do, to extend their life, and their role in the economy.

What about the government? Could the government be doing something? If you look at what's been happening in the UK with Rover MG - the UK government has supported that, or tried to anyway - by pumping money into the industry. Is there a greater intervention role that the South African government can play - almost playing a waiting game for the rand, and the gold price to come to our rescue?

Probably there has been a level of playing the waiting game - we're saying the time for that has maybe ended.

We need to look at speedily resolving certain issues that the mining industry has been complaining about for a long time - like administered pricing.

If you're going to have a free market economy - maybe it's time to go the whole hog, and get rid of protected markets in certain essential areas, as well as doing away with administered pricing where it no longer makes economic sense to protect and sustain them.

... the industry has served this country well - we would like to get some of that goodwill back right now, because we really need it.

^-----(from interview at url)-----^

In the discussion of free market philosophy and administered pricing, you can almost detect the overtures and strains as related to the ultra-low gold pricing as done as a form of protection for financial institutions that is orchestrated and "administered" through the collective bullion banking association centered in London.

In suggesting that there are "certain things" (not operational technology) that can be done, and in the context of going "whole hog" to eliminate "protected markets in certain essential areas", you can also almost hear the choir inhale in preparation to sing a verse of "free gold, free market gold" as we might recognize it from the explanations of FOA & Co.


Federal_ReservesFED statement release.#13112504/12/05; 12:46:28

No super hawkish inflation statements found in today's fed release, they even mentioned core inflation expectations were very low. Looks like they will continue to pepper the economy with 25bps hits going forward.

Statements like this are good for gold. Remember, reckless and irresponsible policy making that leads to huge trade deficits, fiscal deficits, accompanied by foreign wars and massive fiat paper printing is good for gold.

Even so I'm as neverous as a burglar in a junk yard full of barking dogs! Would plan to hedge my gold if it broke under the long term up trend line with force - around 420 and such.

slingshotT.C "undies in a bunch", Watch out for the Atomic Wedgie!#13112604/12/05; 14:51:02

True, the four ways to obtain gold. Inherit/find/mine and buy it. I like to buy Gold for it saves me all the trouble and waiting. Gold in Hand. How wonderful.Think about the word "BUY" To be such a simple word that can make a difference. One must first break the chains that bind us (Mentally) to Fiat. Failing to do so entraps us in a web that may well lead us to poverty. Reading, "Is anybody listening" can be transformed to, Is anybody comprehending what they are reading?"

In todays world it is more like "Star Trek" High Tech and the Borg. Resistance is futile. You will be assemulated.
Sounds like if you want to make money you have to play the paper game. There is one episode in which a Borg is captured and is given a name and becomes a friend of Jodie , the ships engineer. Hue is sent back to the collective, now an individual and the Borg Hive begins to have its problems.

Much like today. Overwhelming institutional force upon the markets/Borg. Hue? Just might be a futuristic Gold Bug.

Thinking for himself and not following the Collective.

TownCrierBizarro-Greenspan, a matter of misplaced trust#13112704/12/05; 15:50:09

The worst kind of thief is the one who shows up at your doorstep dressed as a policeman, a senator, or some other appearance as a civil servant. If a hooded burglar shows up, you'd probably mop the floor with him straightaway. However, the mere superficial garb of legitimacy and integrity, as suggested by a (false) uniform or badge, puts you at an additional disadvantage for defending yourself or your property until such time has passed that you can finally see through the pretense or the con and begin to react with 20/20 vision according to your own nature as the master of your domain.

Similarly, the worst kind of advisor is the one who has a (false) appearance of knowing something about which you would like instruction. Someone in a court jester suit spouting what is obviously gibberish is a far better "advisor" because you won't waste any of your time or resources taking his advice -- you'll ultimately follow your own intuition. A sharp talking pretender, however, has the potential to keep you lost in the wilderness for years before you finally recognize a chronic misdirection for what it is and terminate the relationship somewhat older and poorer, but wiser.

Before I go any further, I would like to state unequivocably that I agree with the concluding remark in your reposted ORO material:

"People do not need to keep unwanted products in their homes and in the many storage facilities for savings. Instead they save gold. Thus the demand for gold is at its maximum."

Having agreed on the destination, we might think there was nothing more to discuss.

But you will recall I made mention of "bridges" to be travelled in journey of getting there from here, and it is in the planning of his route that ORO, as a travel guide, could be a far worse advisor than a court jester in full harlequin regalia.

ORO's problematic deficiency, as I see it, is his cognitive dissonance in putting complete support and confidence in the almighty market for its theoretical ability to act unfettered and with perfect information in the glorious maintenance of a gold standard system, yet he pooh-poohs the very same (almighty) market if/when it traffics in a fiat currency system as it currently does.

If the unfettered market is the solution, as he apparently claims it to be, then in the name of consistency is he not thereby obliged to accept its pronouncements, warts and all? To try to have it any other way is to effectively don the harlequin colors -- and thus it is that his true status is clearly advertised to all he approaches, and his attmepts at advising remain harmless as no one of any rank will ever deign to follow.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1311284/12/05; 16:59:06">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Tuesday market excerpts

April 12 (from DowJones) -- Profit taking, as the dollar strengthened despite a widening U.S. trade deficit, led to lower finishes in COMEX gold futures Tuesday, traders and analysts said. June gold contracts fell $1.10 to $429.30.

The euro briefly upticked after the U.S. government reported that U.S. trade deficit widened 4.3% to a record $61.04 billion during February, exceeding the $58.8 billion consensus forecast. The single European currency soon turned south, however, and gold and silver followed.

"People who are short-term traders are watching the euro," said one trader/analyst. "The euro was set up for a fall before the figures came out."

"The profit takers are here in gold," said George Gero, vice president with Legg Mason Wood Walker, as the metal was falling Tuesday morning. In fact, he added, this has been occurring all month so far.

"...we've lost 50,000 in open interest in the (COMEX) futures," said Gero.

"We've lost maybe another 100,000 in open interest in the options. We're hoping to regain that. But that means a lot of the large funds that were supporting gold have left the (paper) market. ... people are wondering why."

----(see url for full news, 24-hr headlines)----

TownCrierAsian consumers defy high gold price#1311294/12/05; 17:13:05

(Reuters) April 13, 2005 -- Jewellers and investors in Asia have made fresh gold purchases, driven by worries that prices may go beyond Tuesday's three-week high above $429 an ounce.

Premiums for gold bars to London spot prices firmed in bullion trading centres of Hong Kong and Singapore, which indicated that buyers had actively sought gold before prices rose further.

"...physical buyers are already accustomed to buying gold at above $415," said a Hong Kong dealer.

In India, high bullion prices had little impact on demand during the April-June marriage season, when parents give gold to their daughters for financial security.

"Demand is quite strong in India at the moment because of the wedding season and some local festivals. There was a little bit of chaos and strikes in March before the introduction of VAT but it has been resolved," said one dealer in Bombay.

India introduced a new value-added tax (VAT) on April 1 to replace a complex web of state sales taxes ... The VAT will cover 550 goods and have two basic rates of 4 percent and 12.5 percent, with a special rate of 1.0 percent for gold and silver ornaments.

...China has allowed private investors to buy and sell gold through the Internet since late March, making gold trading more convenient.

^----(from url)----^

Premiums on physical gold in the East... how long before the spread widens alarmingly versus the discounted paper gold trading in the West?

If you want your pony to run at its best, be sure to choose a physical one.


Nedminer69er#1311304/12/05; 17:28:18

Yeah.....but.....why this month? I've been watching this 'trade balance' number release thingy month in - month out and its almost clockwork.....bad numbers, bad reaction to the dollar and vice-versa.

An intuitive poster remarked last night over at G-E that we might expect lower than expected numbers because the Feburary numbers are over 28 days compared to Jan's 31. Three days is 6 or 7 billion dollars, imagine if today's number was 68 billion instead of 61? Would the dollar really have rallyed?

This is hogwash. I saw the setup, oil began to rally early to mid-Feb and crossed $50/bbl I believe around the 20th. It closed Feb around $52/53/bbl. I had the strongest hunch the trade number was going to be a doozie and I loaded up on stocks within the last week.

Yes I was trying to be cute, trying to be a trader. I was toasted and I'm ugly about it. There is something enormously crooked about EVERYTHING!! There is a theme that real traders are working around and it ain't logic. They I dare say, understand some crooked, underhanded cheating going on and they play that game.

When this little game is caught on and passed on it will be GAME OVER! Ha..Ha!

We'll see who gets the last laugh.

R PowellORO's thoughts + dollar conundrums#1311314/12/05; 19:10:26

Your thoughts here in regards to some of ORO's thoughts......

"ORO's problematic deficiency, as I see it, is his cognitive dissonance in putting complete support and confidence in the almighty market for its theoretical ability to act unfettered and with perfect information in the glorious maintenance of a gold standard system, yet he pooh-poohs the very same (almighty) market if/when it traffics in a fiat currency system as it currently does."

Perhaps that complete support + confidence in the market is justified in regards to a gold standard system but is not applicable to a fiat currency standard. Why? perhaps because of the very nature of a fiat currency standard, which almost by definition is one that is designed to be unfettered by, uncontroled by, and beyond any regulating powers of any market or "invisible hand".

The supply of fiat is totally government controled...the essense of central planning ...which is the complete antithesis of the notion of control under a gold standard. Why is it that gold standard advocates favor a gold standard? Is it not because it is beyond the control of those who wish to subvert the "invisible hand"? How can market forces regulate that which was designed specifically to be beyond any resonable majority or market influence regulation?
Fwiw, I'm NOT an advocate of a return of a gold standard.

Miner....I'll agree with your very plausible answer to the bad news vs higher dollar conundrum. Or, it may have been any number of other market forces in play. This was one day's reaction...short term! Very often, breaking news that might appear bad (or good) for a market (whether soybeans or the dollar) does not evoke a corresponding market reaction immediately. Market actions are no where near that simple. If they were, I'd be as rich as Soros. As it is, I'm only as rich as Rich which is not very rich.

Gandalf the WhiteWOWSERS -- "WAY to GO" there ESF !!! (Re: US$ Chart)#1311324/12/05; 19:31:56

LOOK how much PAPER US$ (or digital $) you can throw away in a short period ! THAT is a new all-time RECORD !
This shows exactly how much the US$ is really WORTH !!
Looks as if we are back to 84.5 again !
GIVE me YELLOW, any day.


$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of GOLD for the June Comex contract (GCM5) on Friday, April 22, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Wednesday, April 20th, AND ALL ENTRIES must answer THE QUESTION !!

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a Wilhelm I German 20 Mark Goldpiece - this is a scarce item, (as Wilhelm II's are the more common item), Fineness: 0.900, and Actual Gold Content of 0.2304 troy ounce and minted BEFORE 1890 !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce pure Silver U.S. Eagle.

BASIS of Question -- (In keeping with the spirit of the German 20 mark coin and referring to the Nightmare German Inflation (NGI) report as seen at the following LINK for educational purposes.) --

The QUESTION -- (Put on your THINKING HATS !)
Is a Nightmare American Inflation (NAI) a possibility as America may have passed the point of no return. SOOO, What could be the price of gold at the NAI's PEAK and WHY ?" in 30 words or more.


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) June 2005 Gold Contract (GCM5) on the date of Friday, April 22, 2005.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $444.4)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $444.4 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Wednesday, April 20, 2005.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph, or more, discussing
"THE QUESTION". <===== NOTE !!!
LET the CONTEST begin !

Chris PowellGold/oil ratio is at historic divergence ....#1311344/12/05; 21:39:58

... but Resource Investor's Tim Wood won't guess why.

Latest GATA dispatch.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

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commishContest - $$$$ 436.50 $$$$#1311354/12/05; 22:46:35

The spot price of Gold will be $1,200 when the NAI situation occurs. I believe a soft landing which we all are looking for will not occur. Like FDR the present administration will lead the U.S. into a world war that will balance the to speak.
GoldiloxContest#1311364/12/05; 23:58:41

***** $444.40*****

Like Sir Commish, I believe the balancing forces will be military, not purely economic. That may mean gold is squeezed into a fixed price bucket in some locations, but whatever "open" market is left, and all the more if it is "black", will bid gold up to Sinclair's $1650 top side estimate and maybe beyond!

But, as has been noted here of late, steps are continually being taken to hinder cross border wealth transfer as the casino deteriorates.

Those with other than "digital wealth" might one day find themselves labeled smugglers, rogues, and pirates.

HAR Matey!

Liberty HeadPaul Volcker - Economy On Thin Ice#1311374/13/05; 00:45:14


As for fiscal discipline – the government's obligation – which form should it take?

Cut taxes, leave spending as-is, and let the economy boom? (supply side).

Raise taxes and keep the Iraq war going? (nobody's solution)

Raise taxes, get out of Iraq, cut military spending, and raise domestic spending? (Teddy Kennedy's solution)

Raise taxes, get out of Iraq, cut all spending? (nobody's solution)

Cut taxes, cut spending, stabilize the money supply, get out of Iraq, and then shut down all of the Federal regulatory agencies. (Austrian School solution – Cong. Ron Paul and no one else.)


I do not understand how someone as wise and forthright as Paul Volker, could suggest our government may have any sense of an "obligation" or is remotely capable of "fiscal discipline". What's he putting in those cigars?

All the security in the world can't protect us from our own stupidity. Oh well!

Everybody now, "Don't worry. Be happy"

Best Wishes

Topaz@Maga Circe.#1311384/13/05; 02:45:37

Hello and welcome MC,

I can't help you with a definite WHY, but it appears there's a relationship ...moreso than just a "vanilla" $/Oil thingie.

To keep international Oil users "in" future Dollars (Bonds), a cast-iron relationship whereby future Oil requirements could always be covered by future "composite" dollars with little or no "slip" is req'd when Yields head south (Bonds prices strengthen) so the $ tends to soften ...and $Oil appears to find the equilibrium.

The rate hikes, subsequent Yield flattening and also the Dollar swoon has weakened the "family" (Bonds/Cash) so our Oil price is now fluctuating in a 45-55 range.

When T-Yields go to 4.3 again (long) with no rate CUT, and static Cash, relative Oil would be roughly $40.

All imho of course.

Topaz*** $426 ***#1311394/13/05; 03:16:49

If ever we're "permitted" to have the Deflation we had to have and subsequent across-the-board medium-long term asset price collapse, the NAI would be the next logical step.
PoG would imo, suffer a price collapse too as in my view, the market NOW trades PaperGold as a medium term asset.

Physical Gold holders who grit their teeth and hang on for grim death will be amply rewarded.

...hope I got in before that Sundeck;-)

mikal@Goldilox#1311404/13/05; 07:29:36

I agree gold will surpass $1650. J. Sinclair and numerous other experts are of the opinion that it will reach then surpass that number.
As for any military enforcement, I would expect "black markets" to thrive beyond current levels in a NAI just due to hard times. But not due to a lack of free markets. We have yet to reap the full harvest from gov't overrestraint and mismanagement on the economy and human potential, public complacency, wars, etc.
As social and psychological fallout spreads globally from years of imbalances and oppression- technological, economic, regulatory, military, environmental, etc, black markets should have many more niches and willing customers.
There are also the whole gamut of reasons why a metals confiscaton would fail and not be considered even in the most extreme scenario(due to American weapons ownership). Reasons that I(and some others) have given here and elsewhere on several occasions, which I will repost
if a need arises.
I and others have also expressed our approval of
marketing "confiscation-proof"(a term which by consensus of most here is a moving target) coins, as they do here
with modern bullion and other great products. I own
all of these myself for diversification, beauty, rarity at low(near bullion) price, protection and expected performance.

2023Contest - $$$$ 427.50 $$$$#1311414/13/05; 07:47:34

I think down the road inflation will increase wildly for the average US citizen as the world is drowning in dollars. This massive oversupply of $$$ to keep everything afloat will greatly increase the price of oil, grains, etc. I think that James Dines could be right about gold peaking between $3000 and $5000 per ounce as more wake up to the lies and pursue hard assets.
Gandalf the WhiteREPOST ---- Thanks all for the STARTING entries ! <;-)#1311424/13/05; 08:18:27

Gandalf the White (4/12/05; 20:02:54MT - msg#: 131133)

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of GOLD for the June Comex contract (GCM5) on Friday, April 22, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Wednesday, April 20th, AND ALL ENTRIES must answer THE QUESTION !!

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a Wilhelm I German 20 Mark Goldpiece - this is a scarce item, (as Wilhelm II's are the more common item), Fineness: 0.900, and Actual Gold Content of 0.2304 troy ounce and minted BEFORE 1890 !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce pure Silver U.S. Eagle.

BASIS of Question -- (In keeping with the spirit of the German 20 mark coin and referring to the Nightmare German Inflation (NGI) report as seen at the following LINK for educational purposes.) --

The QUESTION -- (Put on your THINKING HATS !)
Is a Nightmare American Inflation (NAI) a possibility as America may have passed the point of no return. SOOO, What could be the price of gold at the NAI's PEAK and WHY ?" in 30 words or more.


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) June 2005 Gold Contract (GCM5) on the date of Friday, April 22, 2005.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $444.4)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $444.4 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Wednesday, April 20, 2005.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph, or more, discussing
"THE QUESTION". <===== NOTE !!!


POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 4/13/05, WEDNESDAY at 08:20 Denver time

Entries listed in order of decending values !

$$$$ $444.5 $$$$ Goldilox (4/12/05; 23:58:41MT - msg#: 131136)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ commish (4/12/05; 22:46:35MT - msg#: 131135)

$$$$ $427.5 $$$$ 2023 (4/13/05; 07:47:34MT - msg#: 131141)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (4/13/05; 03:16:49MT - msg#: 131139
LOTS of ROOM for entries AND DEEP THINKING statements !

Rustee$$$436.00$$$#1311444/13/05; 09:58:16

If given the choice the United States will hyperinflate rather than go thru deflation (depression). Bercause of our history and the "Great Depresssion" we are geared to prevent that and error on the side of inflation. Germany on the other hand will error on the side of deflation because of their experience with hyperinflation. A better question might be - Which would hurt our financial institutions less? Probably inflation.

J-Bullion***$434.4***#1311454/13/05; 09:58:54

Rampant inflation is not only a definite possiblity it is a sure thing as the inflation is already in the system and cannot be withdrawn. Inflation is hiding in every central bank in the world for the last 30 years. As the central banks "diversify" or stop buying our bonds, the money supply will have to be stoked by Ben "helicopter" Bernanke to keep the system afloat. As it unravels everything overpriced and leveraged up by debt will collapse and real tangible items will soar. There is no inflation/deflation debate as they are both 2 sides of the same coin. Without inflation of assets there cannot be deflation. The price of gold could hit numbers unimaginable. Thousands an ounce is a guess for the next 10 yrs.
GoldiloxFifty Dollar Oil#1311464/13/05; 10:09:53

Everyone at CNBC is sighing a breath of relief at "$50 oil", as the consolidation moves crude back from its $58 high earlier.

It sounds too much like the relief sighs we hear when gasoline jumps to $2.75 and back to $2.50 again.

"Isn't nice to see gas prices finally coming down?"

Financial media love to call the downward path of an inter-week oscillation a "correction", often ignoring the larger trend moves.

Remember, the trade deficit "estimates" (the best euphemism for hedonic models that I can muster) are based on $35 oil, still a far cry from the $50 current tab.

Henri$$$$$ 442.1$$$$$$#1311474/13/05; 11:07:18

I think there will be an NAI event and it will occur despite the efforts of the Fed to contain it. It will occur as investors around the world exit their USD position and Central banks begin to try and cash in their treasury bonds before they take too large a licking on them.
At the peak of the NAI event gold will top $10,000 USD/troy oz

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Proven Reliability, Longevity, Quality and Professionalism ---- Invest with Confidence!!#1311484/13/05; 11:33:55

TownCrierINFLATION WATCH: First we had an end to free pizza delivery, now this...#1311494/13/05; 11:46:33

HEADLINE: Cigarette Butt on Auction for $5,400

^-----(From url)----^

I can still remember the good old days when they used to be free, too.

If someone is willing to pay $5,400 for a single cigarette butt, can $5,000 gold be very far behind? It sure makes $430/oz look absurdly cheap.

By making physical (metal) gold available at par with paper gold, the bullion banks are giving you a tremendous arbitrage opportunity between equivalent nominal transaction prices on one hand and a disparity between actual value over time on the other hand.

As long as the choice remains yours to make, choose the metal.


Rustee$$$Corrrection$$$#1311504/13/05; 11:56:04

Noticed I did not post my ultimate high for the POG. My prediction is for a high of $2,000/oz. If it goes much higher governments will again confisticate gold to protect their fiat money.

GoldiloxFinancial Recovery#1311514/13/05; 12:16:31

Citing cold weather nagging at sales and customer confidence complaints about above-MSRP pricing by delears, Harley-Davidson stock posted a 19% drop on earnings warnings. Apple, the earnings darling of the year so far, posts quarterlies after the bell, but has seen only sideways movement since their split last month.

Are consumer markets starting to feel the pinch of tighter wallets? If the consumer tightens his belt, military spending alone may have to fuel the recovery, while FED monetization picks up bond slack.

Hank Greenberg is about to take center stage in the media circus, as stories of his last minute asset transfers hit the street. Fannie and Freddie are still wound tighter than the rubber band on a 1950's model airplane.

Strains on the system are exhibiting less and less "wiggle room" - got gold?

TownCrierFrench No could trigger euro chaos, says Deutsche Bank#1311524/13/05; 12:55:29

13April2005 -- Deutsche Bank warned yesterday that a likely French 'No' to the European constitution could begin a wave of currency speculation across Eastern Europe, setting off a chain of economic disruption.

Norbert Walter, the bank's chief economist, said ... "There could be a wave of currency attacks in the new member states. These countries would then have to raise interest rates. We could see enormous exchange rate swings."

"The problem is that the EU has no strategy for dealing with a rejection of the treaty. People may well question whether the eurozone should have any new members at all," he said.

The French 'No' campaign has portrayed the constitution as an Anglo-Saxon "capitalist" text that will lead to further job losses abroad and outlaw a return to socialist policies by a future French government.

Daniel Cohn-Bendit MEP, French Green leader, said his country was now lashing out in frustration: "It's a very dangerous spiral. This has created a revolutionary mood in France with voters planning a 'no' to provoke a crisis," he said.

^-----(from url)----^

The article goes on to say:

---- Professor Tim Congdon, of Lombard Street Research, said a French 'No' could cause markets to question the inevitability of closer political union, seen as necessary to underpin the euro. This could put pressure on Italian, Greek, and Portuguese debt as credit spreads widened within the euro-zone. "The puzzle is that credit spreads have stayed so low. The markets are behaving as if they believed a single European government already exists, but it doesn't," he said. "The euro makes sense only if there is political union, and without that it becomes harder to believe it will last in the long run."----

Frankly, from a fundamental monetary viewpoint I struggle to understand how or why so many people believe a euro-wide constitution is a necessary component for success of the euro structure. After all, look how much milage the dollar has gotten without a unifying global constitution among its many users.

Insofar as experience and practice has indeed propelled the principal central banks toward an independence from the politics of their national governments, I would tend to think the LACK of an overarching political unity would tend to give the euro a competitive advantage in international use when compared to the U.S. dollar which is inclined to persue policies unilaterally in its own best interest.

Food for thought.

Oh, and in either event -- whether the euro unseats the dollar or else currency chaos ensues -- be sure your savings are in the universally safe and acceptible form of gold instead of national paper.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1311534/13/05; 13:23:37">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Wednesday market excerpts

Gold hits 3-week high but stays in range

April 13 (from Reuters) -- June COMEX gold futures contracts finished at $431.00, up $1.70 on the day.

Frank Aburto at FC Stone said gold appeared to get a lift, despite the weaker euro and oil earlier, as metals such as aluminum, copper and zinc got slammed by fund profit-taking.

"It's a bit puzzling because gold is not following the traditional factors" of tracking the euro and oil, he said. "However, it hasn't really moved with great force today."

The market also is awaiting word from this weekend's G7/IMF/World Bank meetings on a proposal to use some International Monetary Fund gold reserves to pay off poorer nations' debts.

The IMF is the world's third-biggest holder of gold with 103.4 million ounces, but market players are largely expecting there will be no sales due to influential U.S. opposition.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr financial newswire)---

MKTC - A Currency without a Country#1311544/13/05; 13:40:58

I'm at the office right now, but I wrote a post the other day after reading Wolfgang Munchau' s editorial in FT on Monday which I saved on my home computer. It addresses some of the points you raise. I didn't post it upon completion because there were some areas I wanted to iron out, but I think I'll post it later in relatively raw form since so many, including Tim Congdon, are making themselves known on the subject.

The United States is a cohesive state -- financially troubled as it is -- which can act decisively on a range of domestic and international matters. It can dispatch its military in its best interest if need be. It can make military and economic promises to nation states which benefit its economy in the long run. It has the political institutions in place which act to reflect the collective will of the people at least at some level.

(And I'm just getting started here. There's also the issues having to do with poltical checks and balances which keep institutions like a central bank from running rampant. Greenspan must give better than lip service to the political sector. Remember, he was referred to recently by one Senator as being one the most political figures in Washington. There's a reason for that.)

Europe cannot do these things under its present structure.

Does that mean I condemn Europe and the euro to oblivion? No, it just means that as a realist (maybe I presume when I call myself that) I see what a defeat of the Constitution might mean.

I'll put up the post later. In the end though, a No vote by France and/or Netherlands in my view will create strong gold demand in Europe, and you might see that break from currency related trading only we have all been looking for.

By the way, the U.S. constitution governing its 50 states is sufficient to advance the usage of the dollar and all the nations that use it. A euro with a European government behind it would function as real competitor.

There's another aspect to this even more important than what I've alluded to here that Wolfgang Munchau raises.

More later.

TownCrierMK, "Europe cannot do these things under its present structure."#1311554/13/05; 15:06:10

"The United States ... can dispatch its military in its best interest if need be. It can make military and economic promises to nation states which benefit its economy ... (Greenspan) was referred to recently by one Senator as being one the most political figures in Washington...."

"Europe cannot do these things under its present structure."
--(end snip)---

Well, that's essentially my point.

Given a world of general animosity toward the exorbitant privilege that the U.S. can tap into as a consequence supporting mechanisms of reserve currency status, if an alternative is sought, it might be that the world would not be so inclined to simply replace one self-serving master with another of similar design.

The bell is surely tolling when we hear that Greenspan is being touted as one of the most political rather than independent figures in Washington. If nations such as Germany, Argentina, Boliva, Turkey, or Yugoslavia (to name only a few) have had past problems with inflation and hyperinflation, it is by most accounts a result of the central banks being politically subservient to the wants of the government.

I think our own consequential day of reckoning, due to multi-decade pursuit of politically self-serving monetary policy, is only a matter of "when", not "if". And the "when" shall be upon the wider world "voting" for a leveling of the playing field through a simple restructuring of their reserve asset program.

That isn't to say the euro is necessarily the reserve-asset replacement of choice. I would expect gold to be the politically-neutral preference. However, when the dollar goes hyperinflationary as a consequence (the Fed will "politically" dutifully monetize the debt), the world will likely want to (or need to) select Another currency unit as a more stable pricing numeraire in international contracts.

And this becomes the basis of the point I alluded to earlier -- when we see the mileage the international "eurodollar" market enjoyed without having a formal constitution overarching the larger portion of its many participants, so too could a person envision a "euroeuro" market although sans repetition of problematic reserve asset bloating and asymmetric privilege to an issuing homeland.

But that's just my own opinion -- very easily dismisable as a solitary insignificant voice among the howling winds of the wilderland.


Cometosedidn't want to do my taxes.....#1311564/13/05; 15:39:34

Date: Wed Apr 13 2005 17:20
Cometose () ID#139260:
Copyright © 2002 Cometose/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
Lots of bickering here today ............on a day that GOLD is stable and silver volatile ...on the backdrop of what on an international level is the worst kind of TRADE NUMBERS EVER..... and the HUI goes down' with XAU...

Sports fans ,,,,,,i've got good news and bad news...

Someone is buying and someone is selling and it doesn't necessarily have to do with value....

Remember in 2000 when the NASDAQ was going up ...and up and up and at 4000 I thought it was high so I started buying Rydex but it kept going on and on and on ...but when it went down it didn't matter that I sold it 20% off it's highs...because when it fell it fell hard and long.......

The transports fell through a major support area today ....and the Nasdaq, in spite of all the help provided by "all the kings' horses and all the kings men" still hit a new low today....Looking at the interest rate sensitive area ( the banking stocks ) there was another earthshaking day ( if this is any indicator BONDS might be a good short into the next decade ) ...........Then you might want to take a look on the sharp charts at what is happening to VIX AND VNX

.........and so you say "what is the GOOD NEWS ?????".....

IT"S HARD TO GLEAN but ....what the sellers / shorters are doing to the HUI and XAU today is the inverse of what they were doing to the NASDAQ in 99' through 2000.... ( they pushed it as high as they could into the highest areas until all of them were so high, they were breathing rarified air and then the turned all their longs into shorts ) THey made money all the way up and then all the way down just as they are doing on not such a large scale in the Transports right now....might want to get on the back of that wave as well

While the PPT did everything in their power to make yesterdays report appear a non event and then tried to make you forget yesterday sedating the markets and making the action in the metals in reaction an ommission and then added insult to injury by selling the mining did little in the eyes of the world to change anything fundamentally.......Like putting a nice OFFICE SUIT on a Prostitute , it changed very little about what is underlying all this nonsense......

I GUARANTEE , you , the rest of the world notices and is taking NOTE...
( Last week it was reported that FNMA wasn't going to report numbers for quarters if not years...?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? THAT should send a HUGE ARSAE RED FLAG UP .....!!!!!! ) .....and THEY are selling ...the rest of the world is selling this nonsense... don't listen to the talking heads on tv....

THE SAME people that are SELLING ppt hype and selling paper poopicah are also hip to the games of the ppt......and they know value when they see it .....

WHEN THE PPT starts buying undervalued miners that they have been suppressing ......, those that are selling our crap are also going to be buyers of those precious undervalued mining shares as well...

THE HUI is likely to rise just like the Nasdaq fell...the movers are bottome fishing as we speak ...

I GET a picture of a DIKE with FED runners going up and down sticking their fingers in the DIKE to save what's behind the wall.........

We all know what is behind the wall ......MK has been talking about this for seven years or more as have many other people......inside the context of the four horsemen/ five horsemen of the apocolypse......

I sense that we are off the cliff already and the media leakage hasn't caught up with the problem ( s ) yet...... There are people inside that know....they already know and things are happening behind the scenes.......IT'S THE FIRE
, the bonfire of the papere ( D ) vanities....Those in the know wear a scarlet letter on their breasts ; it's the letter D..........

WHen the paper burns , you will be glad that your savings were in your possession and that they don't go up in smoke or become valueless over night .

I bet BUFFET is buying these miner's now with both fists.....and may he make 1000's of percent on all his buying and may all boats rise in that wake ...

Cavan ManIn my humble opinion......#1311574/13/05; 15:47:24

The world we all live in is, at least currently, denominated in fiat currency--for better or worse. The USD, although widely held and in a position of dominance is beginning to fall from grace. Looking at the many near and longer term issues confronting dollar hegemony, it is hard to imagine a world needing quality paper that would not embrace a viable competitor. I think political union and monetary union on the continent are two very separate subjects. Their respective success or failure though seemingly joined at the hip are, IMHO, mutually exclusive. I fear not for my Euro denominated investments.
Federal_Reserves$$$$$ $420.01 $$$$$$$#1311584/13/05; 16:59:33

A NAI is a very real threat. For a moment forget about the money supply inducing inflation. The United States production function has been in a steady decline since the 1950's and recently that decline has accelerated. We are now held captive by external producers for nearly every category of good (food, energy, clothing, cars, computers, etc). Imagine if these external producers suddenly demanded more for their goods? How could we react? Our factories are either shuttered or aged, we have no ability to produce goods ourselves. This buyers market for goods we have now could easily turn into a sellers market. Our baby boom work force is set to retire across a board category of skills, while the stupidest generation in history, GENX, is coming forth! I fear the US, long term, is headed to join the 3rd world. If we have another NAI then $800 gold would be exceeded.
Smeagol$$$$ 432.1 $$$$#1311594/13/05; 17:20:02

Hah! (removing the ear-plugs) we were ready for those trumpets thiss time, Sssir Gandalf!

Two very good posers, O Whitesst of Wizards (almosst as good as a tricksy Baggins might pull out of its pocketses!) (green-eyed grin)

"Is a Nightmare American Inflation a possibility as America may have passed the point of no return?"

Yess, definitely, precious. But an American hyper-inflation AS BAD AS the German Nightmare? Ai...sss... now that would be horrible... it might even bring civil war and break the (very much bigger than Germany) country into sseveral ssmaller ones - secession from the Union to avoid going down with the ship? Not pretty to think about, precious. But as Ssir Commish and others implied, war is always a convenient (for the Powers anyway) economic sstimulant.

If not that, our humble opinion... is that there is enough hisstorical messing and guessing over the lasst few hundred years by various entities ssuch as the Federal Reserve with... sss... fiat-sysstems... that hyper-inflation >as bad as< the Germany-country's would not happen, BUT it would not take as much now, numbers-wise leasstways, to produce ssimilar effects... because many of the things brought about in/by the German hyper-inflation already exisst in the America (and the World) of today, as if the German experience is now happening again in sslow-motion. We thinks the US Government would sstep in and...sss... 'fix' things... ("Rentenmark") long before its people began using dollar-bundles to sstart their barbecue-grills.

"What could be the price of gold at the NAI's PEAK and WHY ?"

(tsk, tsk, now that's not a 'fair' riddle eh, precious? WE don't have a Seeing-stone (grin) but poor Smeagol will try, yess...)

In truly... sss... 'interessting times'... ssince, unlike the German-fiat, the dollar-cancer is World-wide... we thinks the price of It would go up in all currencies as dollars are abandoned (in favor of many things, It included) because dollar-afflicted countries will be caught in the storm. In the America-country itsself It's price would depend on whether It could be traded at all... governments have acquired the nassty habit of resstricting precious-metal trade in currency-crash scenarios... they KNOW what It (and Silver too) can do! If that is the case It, unaffordable in a practical sense, might be worth nothing at the moment, food and shelter being paramount, yet priceless if It can be held until saner heads prevail, or escaped with to... sss... nicer places... like that South Vietnamese couple did in Sssir MK's book (ironically, they came to America!). If It's price is frozen or limited during a crash, boot-legging It will be common... and then 'they' have another reason to declare a 'war on gold'.

How many dollars will float down from heli-copters before a 'final ssolution' (new currency, war, dictatorship, etc.) is found we cannot guess... weighing the total number of all dollars real and virtual out there >right now< againsst the 'official' US Gold-sstash would require sseveral hundred thousand of them per ounce of It!! Looking at the 'springiness' in the Gold-price chart at times of passt turmoil, sswings double the average one way or the other would be normal!

Indeed we wonders what It's price would be... if the 'value' of all the currencies of the World were weighed againsst the known exissting amount of It above ground at that time. That would be our answer, though maybe not the going rate!


Got gold? Got Moon-suits?

The Invisible Hand$$$$8,752.0$$$$#1311604/13/05; 18:05:18

The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT - msg#: 70296)
Confirmation and discussion ****$ 8,752****
I do hereby confirm my guess of ****$ 8,752 ****
Discussion: Although in an earlier post of the last fortnight I said that A/TG predicted an upward surge of 50 bucks a day, I think it would be more precise to say that the gentlemen argue the unexpected move towards $ 30,000 can occur at anytime. It must thus start once. Why not within the 'time limit' of the contest?

The question is worded as " Is a Nightmare American Inflation (NAI) a possibility ...?" Note that it is NOT worded as "Is a Nightmare US of A Inflation a (NUSoAI) possibility ...?"

As Mises put it (p.428 of the 3rd revised edition of Human Action (Chicago: Contemporary Books, 1966 in arrangement with Yale UP):
"If a thing has to be used as a medium of exchange, public opinion must not believe that the quantity of this thing will increase beyond all bounds.
(emphasis by The Invisible Hand)"

Invisible Hand: this was Mises’ conclusion. The end of the reasoning leading up to this conclusion is this (still in the same paragraph 8 of Chapter XVII of Human Action)

" [At the end op the day], the masses wake up. They become aware of the fact that inflation is a deliberate policy and will go on endlessly. A breakdown occurs.
It was this that happened with the "Continental currency" in America (sic) in 1781, with the French "mandats territoriaux" in 1796, and with the German "Mark" in 1923. It will happen again whenever the same conditions appear."

AT NAI's PEAK, there will no US of A dollar price of gold. What would be the USE of a price in (USEd) toilet paper?

CometoseGold 's relationship to the Equity markets#1311614/13/05; 20:00:53

This is a 3 dimensional look at (yes that's calculus and my hat is off to Stephan in his approach as a teacher; it comes off rather simply with the desired end ; i felt that I had been enlightened ) Gold in it's relationships to various items.....and a look into some of the unnoticed items that took place in the past four years which might not have been noticeably apparent to the untrained eye....

The possible not too distant future( in context of present rumblings beneath us ) and it's implications for GOLD .........take a look .......

Lot's of wonderful pictures too.......

CometoseDIRTY little Secret#1311624/13/05; 21:32:56

This article is a continuation and to further and in a more concise manner let you know


PRITCHOTHIS "N A I" SEEMS TO BE VERY HIP TODAY - - - - -#1311634/13/05; 23:20:40

NAI in every 3rd post or so - - What the %$#@ is NAI?
Am I missing something?

Gandalf the WhiteSir "HIP" PRITCHO ! <;-)#1311644/13/05; 23:24:57

PRITCHO (4/13/05; 23:20:40MT - msg#: 131163)
Please read my post # 131142.

PRITCHO@ GTW - - -RE NAI - - #1311654/13/05; 23:29:19

Thanks for that - - - - :)
Gandalf the WhiteTA TA TAAAAA (REPOST) ---- Thanks all for the STARTING entries ! <;-)#1311664/14/05; 00:03:04

Gandalf the White (4/12/05; 20:02:54MT - msg#: 131133)

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of GOLD for the June Comex contract (GCM5) on Friday, April 22, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Wednesday, April 20th, AND ALL ENTRIES must answer THE QUESTION !!

The POG Contest winner -- the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a Wilhelm I German 20 Mark Goldpiece - this is a scarce item, (as Wilhelm II's are the more common item), Fineness: 0.900, and Actual Gold Content of 0.2304 troy ounce and minted BEFORE 1890 !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce pure Silver U.S. Eagle.

BASIS of Question -- (In keeping with the spirit of the German 20 mark coin and referring to the Nightmare German Inflation (NGI) report as seen at the following LINK for educational purposes.) --

The QUESTION -- (Put on your THINKING HATS !)
Is a Nightmare American Inflation (NAI) a possibility as America may have passed the point of no return. SOOO, What could be the price of gold at the NAI's PEAK and WHY ?" in 30 words or more.


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) June 2005 Gold Contract (GCM5) on the date of Friday, April 22, 2005.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $444.4)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $444.4 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Wednesday, April 20, 2005.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph, or more, discussing
"THE QUESTION". <===== NOTE !!!
POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 4/13/05, WEDNESDAY at 08:20 Denver time

Entries listed in order of decending values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (4/13/05; 18:05:18MT - msg#: 131160)

$$$$ $444.5 $$$$ Goldilox (4/12/05; 23:58:41MT - msg#: 131136)

$$$$ $442.1 $$$$ Henri (4/13/05; 11:07:18MT - msg#: 131147)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ commish (4/12/05; 22:46:35MT - msg#: 131135)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ Rustee (4/13/05; 09:58:16MT - msg#: 131144)

$$$$ $434.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (4/13/05; 09:58:54MT - msg#: 131145)

$$$$ $432.1 $$$$ Smeagol (4/13/05; 17:20:02MT - msg#: 131159)

$$$$ $427.5 $$$$ 2023 (4/13/05; 07:47:34MT - msg#: 131141)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (4/13/05; 03:16:49MT - msg#: 131139)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Federal_Reserves (4/13/05; 16:59:33MT - msg#: 131158)

TownCrierDollar rises but market puzzled by strength#1311674/14/05; 01:08:56

TOKYO, April 14 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed on Thursday due to Japanese investor demand, even as traders and investors were caught off guard by the currency's surprising strength this week after an array of poor economic news.

Traders have been baffled by the dollar's sharp and surprising rebounds this week after U.S. reports showing the trade deficit hitting a record $61.0 billion in February and poor retail sales in March.

"The reaction to the dollar data has been all over the place," said a dealer at a U.S. investment bank. "It's really quite confusing."

The market has also been torn between the dollar-positive factor of rising U.S. interest rates and the persistent negative factor of the giant current account and budget gaps, leaving currencies whipsawed by short-term speculators.

"It just shows the split in the way people think," said Luke Waddington, head of forex dealing at Royal Bank of Scotland in Tokyo.

Some analysts said the dollar's rally on the steady rise in short-term U.S. rates and the hopes for the Federal Reserve to potentially lift rates more aggressively was starting to fade.

"The dollar is not going to get much support from that side of the story any more," said Ashley Davies, currency strategist at UBS in Singapore.

^---(from url)----^

Can you confidently invest in a state of confusion?

Choose gold. It is easy to understand.


TownCrierSimilar to recent articles, posted mainly for the awesome photo#1311684/14/05; 01:18:02

(April 14, 2005) --
AT ONE time, the industry upon which Egoli -- the City of Gold -- was founded was as good as gold itself.

But, with the strong rand, rising costs and dwindling resources, the pre-eminence of the South African gold industry may soon be as good as gone.

Half the country's gold mines are considered to be on the edge -- marginal or loss-making, with a profit-to-revenue ratio of less than 6%.

^------(from url)----^

A marvelous industry, that much is certain. However, it would be prudent to support it by buying its product, not its shares.


Topazalt Gold.#1311694/14/05; 02:09:32

PoG is looking strong here in the face of a strengthening Dollar. Woo-Hoo!
Topaz...just a few notes on the comparison chart below,#1311704/14/05; 02:40:51

The scalings we now witness gives a good perspective on how we've been travelling vis PoG recently ...and the current separation.

These WILL come back together, much and all as I HOPE they don't ...and at present we see a good "reason" for any sudden moves in $ or PoG to achieve same.

masQuestion? #1311714/14/05; 06:29:55

Why are there more than 250 US military facilities still existing in the EU. I find this summary very conclusive. When will you go home, the cold war is long over yes?

Quote from the Privateer, as I couldn't have writeen it any better.

The Waiting Time:
For the time being, both sides - the EU and the US - will try to make it appear as if the NATO alliance
still has some standing. Each side will be doing it for entirely different political purposes. For the EU, it
will pay to keep the fiction standing until all the national referendums for the new EU Constitution have
taken place, whatever the results. Until that is all over, the EU will stay quiet. For the US, it will pay to
keep the fiction standing because it gives the global appearance that the US is still the leader of an
alliance which grants it ongoing basing rights for its armed forces, right across the European land mass.
Neither side wants the breach made in Brussels out in the open for the world to see. If that happened, it
would raise the stark political issue in Europe of the US forces there. The hard political question would
be asked that if NATO no longer exists in functional terms, when will the US forces leave Europe?
Both Sides Know This Lies Ahead:
In future, this issue will come to a head, possibly a head-on collision between Europe and the US. If the
US refuses to leave Europe when requested to do so by Europe, then US turns its present armed forces
based in Europe into an OCCUPATION force. Once the breach and the issue of US forces in Europe
comes out into the open, real trans-Atlantic meetings will have to take place in public to negotiate dates,
times, etc., for the departure of the US forces. If the US "stalls" in these talks, suspicions will climb in
Europe that the US will not leave Europe voluntarily! If the situation goes that far and this become public
perception in Europe, then the entire situation becomes globally explosive in the extreme. Inherent in this
is a situation in which a cordon, perhaps 10 miles wide, is placed around US military bases in Europe and
nothing moves in and noting moves out. That would be followed by an invitation for urgent talks.
Europe - The Pivot Of Empire:
For the US, once all the excuses and all the delays have been exhausted, there lies a GRAND policy and
grand strategic decision. They must decide whether to withdraw their armed forces from Europe
voluntarily or whether to stand their ground, refuse to leave, and see what the continental Europeans do
about it. It is here where the possibility of "cordons" around US military installations can come into play.
Should these be put in place, that could lead to a new lengthy stand-off. The danger is that such a standoff
could have a sudden and bloody ending the first time a European or an American dies at such a cordon
barrier. Make no mistake, its military presence in Europe is what MAKES the US an EMPIRE. A US
military withdrawal from Europe would make the US into simply one more large nation in the world.
Today, right now, the stakes placed on the global political tables of the world are enormous. For the US
to lose its strategic placement in Europe is "unthinkable" to the US. To lose it means to lose any and all
strategic and logistic means with which to stay in its new placement in Iraq and the Middle East.

Bulldog$$338.5$$#1311724/14/05; 08:48:48

If U.S. interest rates rise to keep foreign capital inflows coming, then very high inflation followed by a severe recession/depression. I accept Richard Russell's value of gold = Dow at some point, either 3,000 to 5,000. However, within the next 10 years, I expect Belgian's freegold will be achieved. If Ted Butler is correct and silver goes to $200, using the historical gold/silver ratio of 15 would yield gold at $3,000. When (not if) foreigners stop buying U.S. debt instruments, then the U.S. will be forced to repatriate its troops from around the world and follow a period of desperate isolation.
WhitewaterwomanMy guess#1311734/14/05; 09:16:26

I'll play!
My guess: $462. I do think that we (US) or the Israelis will be going into Iran at that point.

The 30 or more words:

I give NAI a 65% chance of happening, largely due to the lack of any real ability on the part of the govt. to stop it. Taking a look at the chart of the Euro vs. USD since late 2000, it's clear the Euro is in a secular bull run. Bad-bad-bad for USD.

Then there's Peak Oil. I wrote a story about Community Supported Agriculture two years ago, and came across the ugly fact that the AVERAGE piece of food in an American grocery store travels 1,300 miles to get there. To make it worse, non-organic food is grown with petroleum-based fertilzers--that's why it's so big and shiny; each calorie of it took 10 calories of oil energy to grow! Thus, a very large percentage of our US food costs are tied to oil.

On the lighter side, this means that as POG climbs, our obesity epidemic will cure itself ($20 for a pound of steak, $5 for a quart of milk, $6 for a dozen eggs...all in our future), but on the horrible side it means that millions will starve.

But I digress. If NAI happens, I see gold peaking at $10,625, arrived at by dividing $850 (approximate peak previous price of gold) by $35 (what it was before the big run-up to 850), getting a factor of 25, and multiplying that by the current average of around $425.

Have a nice day, and enjoy cheap food now!

Bizarro-GreenspanIt's too bad about rules #4 and #5#1311744/14/05; 09:25:59

"The search is on for the perfect hedge

What would be the ideal characteristics of such a numéraire? First, it would be in fixed physical supply. Second, it would be resistant to weather-related influences. Third, its ownership would be diffuse, rendering futile any attempt to restrict supply through a non-competitive structure. Fourth, it must be freely tradable. Fifth, there would be no futures or options markets attached to it."

Peter Warburton

"There is another contributor to stability in the gold based system in the nature of gold uses outside of money and in the nature of gold deposits. Gold is used mostly for purposes in which the metal is not lost, thus allowing the market to respond to monetary gold shortages with the immediate offering of jewelry for melting. Since a gold shortage means higher gold purchasing power, gold mining becomes more profitable and output increases. Since gold mining and distribution involves the use of all technologies and the nature of gold deposits requires either consecutively higher real gold purchasing power to obtain new production, or an improvement in actually productive technology that lowers the cost of mining the gold as in all other productive endeavor. Over time, the outstanding quantity of monetary gold and pricing of items matches closely the developments of the real economy and thus eliminates the problem of over-investment and under-investment by causing rates to rise when too many investment projects are being financed without requisite savings, and to fall when resources are available for use. The degrees of freedom in the gold based monetary system (or generally commodity based monetary systems) allow multiple avenues for the markets to meet real economic and financial events. Fiat debt currencies have no automatic stabilization inherent in them and the central banks that are necessary to allow the debt currency to avoid perpetual cycles of rapid inflation and deflation. With a central bank, the cycles are smoothed out by the institution of perpetual inflation to bail out those caught overly in debt at end of the inflationary cycle."


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Building-blocks for a solid portfolio -- on sale now! 800-869-5115#1311754/14/05; 10:26:25

TownCrierNY gold knocked by fund sales amid weaker euro#1311764/14/05; 10:51:20

NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - June gold futures fell sharply before lifting off two-month lows on Thursday morning, after a rallying U.S. dollar prompted fund liquidation across the metals markets, traders and analysts said.

A rising dollar tends to depress dollar-denominated gold as the metal gets pricier for investors holding foreign currencies.

"Fund selling and the dollar are the two main stories. The euro is getting crushed in here and gold is following as they are trading in identical patterns," said Scott Meyers at Pioneer Futures.

Barring a much more dramatic swing in the greenback, analysts pegged June gold in a range from $420 to $430 -- similar to bullion's band.

...dealers hoped to hear official word from weekend meetings of the Group of Seven and the International Monetary Fund on a proposal to use some IMF gold to finance Third World debt relief. ... market players are thinking there will be no sales due to influential U.S. opposition.

^------(from url)------^

Short-termers and day-traders step aside ahead of the weekend's developments. Long term and "big picture" investors know the fundamentals remain unaffected and take advantage of the daytrader's selloff.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. today for gold coins and bullion priced nicely for the discerning investor.


Cavan ManIMF Gold.....#1311774/14/05; 11:46:54

....stays in the WEST
Bulldog$$438.5$$#1311784/14/05; 12:50:53

corrected entry, probably not the correct entry.
Federal_ReservesTOWN > Thanks for that explanation#1311794/14/05; 12:58:37

about the big drop today. Its buck up time.

I think its likely gold can stay above $420, but I'm a nervous as a pig in a packing plant about it.

How far are they gonna take the buck up, I'm sure its all about driving commodity prices down, so the FED can say there is no inflation without everyone laughing at them.

TownCrierBush says China should float currency#1311804/14/05; 13:09:23

WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush ... talking to the American Society of Newspaper Editors, said China should be "floating her currency so we can have free and fair trade."

^-----(from url)----^

Unfortunately, articles like this can only ever just scratch at the surface of the whole issue.

I'd like to see a counterpart article in which a spokesman for China is reported as saying the "West" should be "floating her gold so we can have a basis for free and fair trade." But then that, too, would only be scratching the surface.


TownCrierForecasting US capital flows data a "fool's errand"#1311814/14/05; 13:27:16

NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - Mid-way through each month currency market analysts and traders feverishly await the U.S. Treasury's TIC report, which has become one of the most notoriously unpredictable, yet important, catalysts for sentiment on the dollar.

Forecasting data contained in the monthly Treasury International Capital report -- such as net capital flows into the United States or net purchases of U.S. stocks and bonds -- is so difficult that only a handful of banks and research groups make an attempt.

"It's a fool's errand to forecast a lot of these monthly data, but the TIC data is probably the largest fool's errand," said Chris Probyn, chief economist with State Street Global Advisors in Boston.

Concerns over whether the United States can continue to attract adequate foreign capital to finance the U.S. trade deficit, which hit a record $61 billion in February, have been paramount in the dollar's three-year decline. Any sign that foreign private investors or central banks are easing back on purchases of dollar-denominated assets tends to hurt the dollar.

The median estimate from five venturesome analysts for the next TIC report, due on Friday, is for net capital inflow of $65 billion in February, down from January's $91.5 billion, according to a Reuters survey.

...Portfolio flows into U.S. dollar-denominated assets are affected by various markets and events, making forecasting a tricky business. For example, analysts had predicted that January net inflow would come in between $55 billion and $75 billion, far below the actual inflow of $91 billion.

Many analysts were not anticipating January's heavy $20 billion inflow to U.S. Treasury debt from Bermuda, often considered a tax haven for hedge funds.

^-----(from url)----^

If the Treasury International Capital report is compiled in such a way and upon such data that it defies prediction by analysts, then arguably one could reasonably conclude that when it is actually released, its subsequent "analysis" by analysts would defy useful interpretation for the very same reason.

Stick with the fundamentals that you CAN understand, and leave the "fool's errands" to the fools. Choose gold -- as a tangible "currency of wealth" it cannot plunge into hyperinflationary depreciation as can happen to a fiat currency of the elastic money supply.

Know a bargain when you see it, and act on it.


TownCrierDow, Nasdaq, S&P500 Hit New 2005 Lows#1311824/14/05; 13:34:43;jsessionid=BJAKZDUR00W3ACRBAEZSFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=8185344

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Thursday, but trimmed some losses after all three major stock indexes hit fresh 2005 lows amid heightened concerns about economic and corporate earnings...

"It's disconcerting, considering that oil prices are going the right way," said Jim Fehrenbach, head of Nasdaq trading at Piper Jaffray, referring to the drop in crude prices in the past week, which has typically driven the market higher.

"People don't have enormous confidence in earnings growth," he added. "There is no compelling reason to buy stocks right now on technical reasons from a macro-economic point of view. You're safer not doing anything right now."

^-----(from url)-----^

Accommodating monetary policy and Keynesian-stimulus government spending sprees will ensure that holding dollars is among the things you don't want to be doing right now.

Nothing says "safety" quite as well as gold does.


TownCrierIMF's Rato is marching to tune called by ECB's Trichet one week ago Thursday#1311834/14/05; 13:58:09

NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) -

...International Monetary Fund leader Rodrigo Rato said Thursday that if IMF shareholders decide to use gold reserves to finance debt relief for Third World countries, selling it is better than revaluing the bullion on its balance sheet.

But great care should be taken not to disturb bullion markets, Rato said, suggesting the IMF join the voluntary central bank agreement...

^----(from url)-----^

Highly significant signs of the IMF leaving the dollar court?

It's inevitable if the IMF wants to maintain a semblance of relevance in a world where the international players transition away from a reserve-status dollar orientation.


Federal_ReservesCongress Passes Bankruptcy Reform Bill#1311844/14/05; 14:17:19

Associated Press
Congress Passes Bankruptcy Reform Bill
Thursday April 14, 3:50 pm ET
By Marcy Gordon, AP Business Writer
Congress Passes Bill Making It Harder to Wipe Away Debt, Biggest Bankruptcy Reform in 25 Years

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Tens of thousands of people who want to wipe out their debts in bankruptcy court would have to work out repayment plans instead under legislation Congress approved Thursday.
A 302-126 vote by the House sent the legislation to President Bush, who is eager to sign it, the biggest rewrite of the bankruptcy code in a quarter-century. It marks the second major change in law to benefit business since Republicans increased their House and Senate majorities in last fall's elections.

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1311854/14/05; 14:31:10">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Thursday market excerpts

April 14 (from MarketWatch) -- Metals futures closed sharply lower in volatile trading Thursday ... Prices have been looking susceptible to a pullback as speculators stepped into the metals market. And fundamentally, doubts about global economic growth have added to metals' vulnerability.

"A long-overdue correction has set in," Man Financial said in its daily research note, adding that "we could see a string of declines over the next few days" -- akin to the recent retreat in energy prices.

COMEX June gold futures lost $5.40 to close at $425.60, recovering from a session low of $423.50.

"Gold is starting and stopping here and can't seem to decide on which way to go next," said trader Kevin Kerr, referring to the choppiness in the precious metal in recent sessions.

Undercutting the metals, the dollar gained ground against both the euro and Japan's yen in foreign-exchange trading.

The Nymex metals pits also assumed a cautious posture ahead of dollar-sensitive data on portfolio inflows measuring foreigners' appetite for U.S. securities, due out Friday morning.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)----

Compare HEADLINES...

IMF head warns of increased risks to world economy

U.S. stocks drop as economic concerns grow

U.S. stocks hit 2005 lows as economic worry mounts

Wall Street - U.S. stocks hit 5-month low on economic worry

NY gold settles at 2-month low, battered by funds

Policymakers remain wary of inflation

Forex reserves surge to record

TownCrierABN Advises Options for Bet Against Euro Before French EU Vote#1311864/14/05; 14:49:13

April 14 (Bloomberg) -- ABN Amro Holding NV recommended that investors use options to bet against the euro before a referendum in France next month on the European Union's draft constitution, because the country may reject the charter.

The EU's draft constitution ... is intended to streamline EU operations after the addition of 10 states including Poland and Hungary last year.

``A failure to ratify the new constitution will serve as a reminder that the euro is not yet in serious competition with the dollar as the world's main reserve currency,'' Sonja Marten, a currency strategist at Dresdner in Frankfurt, wrote in a report today. Such a result may slow any shift out of dollars and into euros, she wrote.

The dollar fell the most in six months against the euro and the most in four months versus the yen on Feb. 22 after the Bank of Korea announced plans to increase returns by diversifying its currency reserves. The bank later said it wouldn't sell dollars.

U.S. dollars accounted for 63.8 percent of the world's currency reserves, which are foreign-exchange holdings at central banks, at the end of 2003, down from 66.9 percent two years before...

``The markets don't seem to be factoring in any risk, and maybe that's a bit over-optimistic,'' said Shahab Jalinoos, a currency strategist at ABN Amro in London. ``Investors are beginning to take this quite seriously.''

ABN recommends buying euro puts, which are options to sell the currency, and selling calls, which are options to buy the euro. Investors will make money from the strategy should the euro decline, or should the volatility for puts increase more than for calls, Jalinoos said.

^-----(from url)----^

RE: the final excerpted paragraph. Par for the course, banks push derivative solutions for derivative problems and push derivative mechanisms for profit generation, because, of course, the other side will never default, and if they do, there is a derivative solution for that, too...

Row, row, row your boat
gently down the stream;
Merrily... merrily... merrily... merrily...
Life is but a dream!

Choose gold.


TownCrierIMF head warns of increased risks to world economy#1311874/14/05; 15:06:21

WASHINGTON, April 14 (Xinhuanet) -- Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Rodrigo Rato said on Thursday that the risks to the global economy have increased in recent months because of the surge in energy prices and massive global imbalances such as the huge trade deficit in the United States.

...any unexpected supply disruption or change in demand could lead to gyrating prices.

At the press conference introducing the joint spring meeting of the IMF and the World Bank, Rato urged countries to deal with these problems now before they get more serious. "To wait for the environment to get less benign would be a huge mistake," Rato said.

^-----(from url)----^

International support for a reserve-dollar will one day be seen by historians as the most miraculous achievement -- that such an unnatural and asymmetric arrangement was maintained for decades without an internationally binding social contract among participants. Of course, historians tend to forget that network externalities are in play which provide a binding force from which change evolves only slowly during normal times. However, profound change can be wrought overnight if chaotic conditions unfold.

Gold has the power to serve you well either way.


TownCrierForex reserves surge to record#1311884/14/05; 15:28:17

April 15, 2005 -- China's foreign exchange reserves surged to an all-time high in March as exports soared and investors bet the government will allow the yuan to appreciate.

The reserves, the world's biggest after those of Japan, rose 50 percent from a year earlier to US$659.1 billion, the Beijing-based People's Bank of China said Thursday. That is US$49.2 billion more than they were at the start of the year.

``Foreign exchange reserves are booming, reflecting the weak yuan and surging exports, particularly of textiles,'' said Stephen Green, senior economist with Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai.

Rising reserves are forcing the government to sell more bonds to keep money-supply growth in check. China has kept the local currency's value at about 8.3 per US dollar for the past decade by issuing yuan for the foreign currency pouring into the nation.

^------(from url)-----^

As China tries to sterilize the domestic inflationary affect of yuan issuance by subsequent mopping operations through the selling of yuan-denominated bonds, one has to wonder if the bond yield compensates for remaining inflation, or does the appetite among buyers emerge more on the basis of a speculative play that the yuan will one day soon be allowed to float -- with expectations of appreciation. But even in that event, what have the bond holders gained in real terms, especially as they are captives on the face of the earth and local prices for goods continue to rise?

Much running on a paper treadmill to stay in place. Instead of continuing forever down this road to nowhere, China will likely gravitate toward the gold alternative for reserves and open market operations.


Liberty Head$$$423.5$$$#1311894/14/05; 20:11:28

NAI is assured. The $US is destined to hit 50 and gold will go to $2000. Why? How about greed, arrogance, ignorance and stubbornness? The dollar will likely be replaced with an American regional currency which will hit the scrap heap itself in short order.

The world has become one large open air insane asylum where the inmates are fed on idiot soup. They gobble it up and beg for more. Freedom is beyond comprehension. Regulation is the automatic solution to every problem.

In other words, we are no where near the bottom.

Best Wishes

GoldiloxDollar Rally#1311904/14/05; 20:46:35


The US dollar rallied sharply today but not for any of the reasons given by market commentators. What made it rise was yesterday's sharp drop in the equity markets followed by the natural and proper action taken by "international investors."

That action is the sale of US equities and the simultaneous buying of 91 day US Treasury bills. This has been going on since the Dow and NASDAQ topped. It has been a major demand-positive factor for the US dollar.

The firmness in the short term instruments has mistakenly been taken as an indicator of a positive flow of international purchases of US Treasury instruments therefore being positive for the TIC report.


Sinclair's take on today's dollar rally.

GoldendomeShall we retire to the cabin?#1311914/14/05; 21:17:34

Brother! What a time to be in the precious metals? This seems like a good time to just take your sack-full and head up to the Yukon Gold Miners cabin-- settle back with a Marlboro, sip some bourbon over, and await the thaw.

A jobber in the store today, who distributes ready to eat snacks, sandwiches, and goodies out along Interstate 90, remarked that business had just been terrible this week.

"Why's that?" I asked? "The cold weather?" (It has been unseasonably cool here since about the 3rd week of March.)

"No," he says, "I think it's the gasoline prices. There's just not as many people driving anywhere."

I thought, Hmmm-- Just this morning I had heard that every single stock in the transportation index was down on the day, with the lone exception of Southwest Airlines. The rails, the trucks, the airlines--everything, down. Impending recession? I'm not making the call but have read and heard analysts who say that the transports are the canary in the mineshaft, foretelling an upturn or downturn in the economy. If demand is dropping, fewer things need shipping and the forward earnings projections wane, leading to a downturn in those stocks.

Now back to the Gold Miners cabin, sipping and smoking. What else can a fella do? Not many men in a million can figure these markets out and I sure as heck ain't one of them! There is no figuring them out! Economics as any of us may have ever been taught anywhere, just doesn't apply anymore. There are no checks and balances. No punishment for imprudence these days for the dollar it seems. No--I'm just as happy with my blind--but reasoned faith--that everything will not work out so well for the dollar in the end. So better hold some "precious" and forget about it.

Really, who could ever figure that record trade deficits would cause a stock market rally, the dollar to break above resistance, and bonds to rally on Monday or Tuesday? What a mad-mad- mad-mad world.

Reading meaning in one of Paul Volker's statements over the weekend: "These people around the world are nuts to keep lending to the world's biggest debtor nation for dirt cheap returns, but even these people won't be able to stay stupid forever."

Will the Fed continue to push up interest rates as markets seem to expect? Only to protect the dollar but with risk of killing the economy (which high energy prices are now doing a pretty good job at.) Pushing up short term interest rates while the long term rates remain stable has a good possibility of ruining the carry trade that fuels the housing market as well as the hedge markets. Golly! What a mess it could be. Glad again, that I own physical gold.

This energy price scenario is a simple supply /demand imbalance; the dollar has little to do with it, other than suppliers getting as many dollars as they can for a short supply resource. If the Fed. believes they can prevent this type of inflation through higher interest rates, well--they probably can, but only through driving down crude demand in the U.S. by crashing the economy, the stock market, housing market--and then when they have to reverse course on interest rates, the dollar....More bourbon, please.

SmeagolOuch! Ssir Goldendome, your blown Tranny#1311924/14/05; 23:01:37$tran,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G

... is resting in the gutter, againsst the red 200 day moving average curb... a no parking/tow-away zone! (grin)



POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 4/14/05, THURSDAY at 23:30 Denver time

Entries listed in order of decending values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (4/13/05; 18:05:18MT - msg#: 131160)

$$$$ $462.0 $$$$Whitewaterwoman (4/14/05; 09:16:26MT - msg#: 131173)

$$$$ $444.5 $$$$ Goldilox (4/12/05; 23:58:41MT - msg#: 131136)

$$$$ $442.1 $$$$ Henri (4/13/05; 11:07:18MT - msg#: 131147)

$$$$ $438.5 $$$$ Bulldog (4/14/05; 12:50:53MT - msg#: 131178)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ commish (4/12/05; 22:46:35MT - msg#: 131135)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ Rustee (4/13/05; 09:58:16MT - msg#: 131144)

$$$$ $434.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (4/13/05; 09:58:54MT - msg#: 131145)

$$$$ $432.1 $$$$ Smeagol (4/13/05; 17:20:02MT - msg#: 131159)

$$$$ $427.5 $$$$ 2023 (4/13/05; 07:47:34MT - msg#: 131141)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (4/13/05; 03:16:49MT - msg#: 131139)

$$$$ $423.5 $$$$ Liberty Head (4/14/05; 20:11:28MT - msg#: 131189)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Federal_Reserves (4/13/05; 16:59:33MT - msg#: 131158)

GoldiloxBarrick Denied Use of Canadian Information in New Orleans Suit#1311944/14/05; 23:46:14


April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Barrick Gold Corp., accused by a New Orleans coin dealer of manipulating the price of gold, can't introduce at trial interviews conducted in its Canadian libel suit against the dealer, a Louisiana state court judge ruled.

Coin dealer Blanchard & Co. accused Barrick and JPMorgan Chase & Co. in a 2002 lawsuit of trying to drive down the price of gold and profit from the decline through a hedging program. Toronto-based Barrick sued Blanchard in Ontario, Canada for libel.

Barrick said transcripts of interviews conducted for the libel case are relevant to the New Orleans case. Ontario law restricts the use of evidence only to the proceedings for which it was obtained. Louisiana state Judge Daniel Knowles rejected the request because the libel case evidence could be shared improperly with JPMorgan, which isn't part of the Canadian suit.

``What Barrick suggests here is patently unfair,'' Knowles wrote in a decision posted on the court's Web site today. He said Barrick wanted to conduct a ``fishing expedition in the Canadian libel action discovery pool.''

Barrick's lawyers interviewed Blanchard Chief Executive Donald Doyle for 10 days in connection with the libel case. Neal Ryan, a Blanchard spokesman, has been interviewed over the past three days, Knowles said. Such extensive examination is not allowed under U.S. rules, he said.


More legal Mumbo Jumbo in the Harrick vs. Blanchard suit. I don't claim to understand the precedents, but I thought I would report what I found.

mikal**$$451.20$**#1311954/14/05; 23:59:56

It is my belief that the most recent dollar rally is topped out. (Despite years of expensive treatments and therapies, this year will IMO prove to be another solid down year, and at least, a major turning point.)
Another forum contained a unique theory I hadn't seen
before on recent US$ strength. It was suggested that
a French or other European bank or centralbank was trading euros for dollars in order to placate antifederalist, French nationalists opposed to the euro treaty and constitution. As a stronger euro would support the oppositions claims that export industries are suffering, while a lower euro would not. Thus a stronger dollar would presumably aid upcoming vote counts for the euro constitution.
Other dollar supportive theories garnered off the web include a trade involving swiss francs and a credible account of more Japanese yen sales related to dissappointing growth forecasts. It also seems like above normal short and long-dated US treasury purchases, from Bermuda and more familiar places, is taking place this month for "safe haven"
diversification and intervention.
Everyday experience and anecdotal evidence of out of control costs of living and sterilized ROI's(returns on investment) in traditional savings instruments such as CD's(Certificates of Deposit), Money Market Funds, Gold, and Currency(inflation-free) makes a mockery of official, perennially adjusted, nonstandardized, unchallenged CPI, PPI and related statistics used for cost-of-living adjustments, earnings forecasts, budgeting, investing and more.
Ample elements for a NAI, especially a greatly unexpected one, are observable, ranging from modern city planning to welfare and entitlement programs, from finance to politics, from health care to pensions, from senior and disabled citizens to veterans, from geopolitics to energy and from human ethics to human psychology.
As sure as ice crystals build and air masses ionize, whether a "freak of nature" or a natural reaction or reflex, a "perfect storm" or a cruel, multidirectional gale, inflation and it's accompaniments will threaten to blow POG to the layer of five digits.

slingshot$$$$$$$$$$$$$428.7$$$$$$$$$$$#1311964/15/05; 06:16:47

Nightmare American Inflation is a drug that has been exported to the whole world. The maker and user of this drug
(FIAT) is experiencing a saturation of the chemical into fatty tissue. What at first gave him a HIGH will now need to up the dosage to maintain it ,while pushing him closer to death. He has surpassed the Point of No Rerturn and those who have listened to him will suffer in some degreee or another the pushers fate. Other points. Is it a Nightmare? Where does a Nightmare begin? A Nightmare for WHO?
This DREAM of FIAT began as a sunny day in a grassy open field with two dogs playing off in the distance. You noticed they have turned their attention to you and begin to run. At first you think they're playful but as they come closer you see they are foaming at the mouth and what you thought was playing was actually fighting. Turning to run the sounds of them barking get closer. Looking back over your shoulder all you see is one of the dogs in mid air,mouth agape with sharp teeth to bring you down.

Will we WAKE UP?

The POG depends when we all wake up. I Hope that Gold only hits $3000-$5000. The five numeral figure sure scares the heck out of me. This multilayered dream of finance will hit Joe Sixpack on the blind side.

The Powers That Be say, Sleeeep, Sleeeeeeeep.


Henrislingshot#1311974/15/05; 07:25:11

Love that image for the final nightmarish scene "...mid-air with mouth agape..."


GoldiloxWaterfall#1311984/15/05; 07:48:57

DX is off 1% this morning. Look out below!
Caradoc3 charged in plot against financial centers in NY and DC#1311994/15/05; 08:44:27


13 April 2005: US authorities have charged three British citizens with terrorism offenses over a plot to attack major financial centers in US cities.

Targets identified: New York Stock Exchange, Citigroup Center in Manhattan, the International Monetary Fund in Washington and the Prudential headquarters in New Jersey.


Looks like those invested in the world of paper may have more to worry about than General Motors being head-over-heels in debt. If a significant fraction of your assets can be confirmed only by electrons lighting up the phosphors of your computer monitor, you might want to consider switching to something more real. Like gold....


slingshotHenri#1312004/15/05; 09:06:28

Thanks. Liberty Heads "idiot soup" was a good chuckle. Lots of Tabasco please. Fire extingushier? Oh yes, set it right there. ;0) Imagination gone wild.
Off to the woods.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A risk-free request, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.#13120104/15/05; 09:19:12">Get a head start on the gold market!
YGMGoldendome (4/14/05; 21:17:34MT - msg#: 131191)#13120204/15/05; 09:30:27

Having that hole in the wall gang style Cabin in the wilderness might not be such a bad idea one day. Summer trips, a little panning and prospecting, fishing etc, for sure. But ultimately a retreat of many uses! Mine has all the neccessities for months/yrs of survival. Even a little Moonshine in the root cellar :-) From AK to Mexico the Rockies and various remote Mtn areas afford a vast selection of spots to pick from. Andes sound good? Bring your Guitar and your own lady friend when you come visit ;-) I'll supply the rest....YGM
Federal_ReservesThe heat is on Bush#1312034/15/05; 10:18:36

to reduce the trade deficit.

This kind of strong talk makes me nervous as a piece of meat in a dog house.

Any sign that the policy makers want to act responsibly to reduce the titanic US trade and fiscal deficits is bad news for gold as this would strengthen the buck. It could be all smoke and mirrors too, all talk and no action. For example, J.Snow, Sec of Treasury, has said for years the policy of the US was "strong dollar", yet the policies he actually pursued resulted in a 40% drop.

All we can do is watch the truth meters rather than the words, gold/dollar itself. Gold still holding over $420.

TownCrierRising costs reveal it can be better to own metal than mine during inflation#1312044/15/05; 10:27:44,10166,12868756-462,00.html

April 16, 2005 --

...[the mine] has become the latest victim of soaring cost blowouts.

The company is shelving its plan to start mining this year at its Tanami Desert deposits because the potential profit has disappeared as contractors hike their rates, workers demand more pay, diesel and steel prices rocket, and even explosives have been hit by the super-inflation within the sector.

Some costs had risen as much as 50 per cent, with an average around 30 per cent.

^------(from url)-----^

Despite common perceptions that there is leverage to be had in shares of gold mines, eventually high costs and exhausted reserves result in shut-down, whereas gold metal keeps on keepin' on...


geWhat's Going on With Gold and the Dollar? by The Texas Hedge Report#1312054/15/05; 10:43:42

"...During the rocky 1970s, there were many times when the Dollar would mount vicious bear market rallies in the face of worsening fundamentals. Most of the time according to Mayer's book, these rallies were artificially created by central banks of various countries. So if you believe that humans tend to behave the same way throughout history, then it only makes sense that the current Dollar rally (in the face of record trade deficits) has been influenced by central banks."

"There are many reasons why it is in everyone's interest to keep the Dollar from declining in a straight line..."

SurvivorToo Little Too Late?#1312064/15/05; 11:09:45

Federal_Reserves: "Any sign that the policy makers want to act responsibly to reduce the titanic US trade and fiscal deficits is bad news for gold"

Survivor: "Funny you should use the term "titanic". They once tried to turn a ship called "Titanic" after it was too late. It couldn't turn in time either.

If you hold gold, your ship is already on the right course.

Great Albino BatWhoops!!#1312074/15/05; 14:05:03

US Titanic is up a creek without a paddle.


Great Albino BatOpinions earnestly requested!#1312084/15/05; 14:10:26

I have read Al Martin's piece, "Bushonomics Part I" at his site, see below.

His statements are hair-raising, nothing less.

Do other readers and posters at this Forum, consider his allegations as credible?

Thanks for your opinion, if you wish to express it.


TownCrierDow Down 180 on Inflation Worries...#1312094/15/05; 14:15:22

(AP) April 15, 2005 -- Wall Street extended its selloff Friday after industrial production figures pointed to a slowing economy and higher prices on imports fed investors' inflation worries. Disappointing earnings from IBM Corp. exacerbated the selling...

...higher oil costs driving up import prices and worsening Wall Street's chronic inflation worries.

In midafternoon trading, the Dow fell 180 to 10,098, after falling 125 points on Thursday and 104 points on Wednesday.

Should the Dow close 100 points lower, it would be the first time since January 2003 that the index posted three straight 100-point losses.

^-----(from url)----^

Done and done.

Hard assets look better by the day. Choose gold.


Great Albino BatHoly smokes!#1312104/15/05; 14:16:19

DJIA - The Dow down 200 points at the close!

Shut-down due to hitting the 200 number?

There will have to a lot of 'splaining to do on Monday. Or the PPT will have a gigantic job to do.

Reminds me of the Friday before Monday, Oct 19, 1987, when I felt serious tremors on Wall St. and remarked that Monday should be interesting.

It was, and how.

Life jackets, everyone.


SurvivorDJIA Close?#1312114/15/05; 14:19:35

So at the top of the 4:00 hour (NY Time) I went to see how the lottery, er, stock market closed. Every ticker at every site I know how to visit stopped about 8 minutes to 4:00. The DOW circus ride was just shy of -200 at that time.

Anyone know what the number was at the 4:00 closing?

- Survivor

mikalRate hike advocated in latest ECB bulletin would be first change in almost 2 yrs#1312124/15/05; 14:23:33

ECB shifts focus, worried by rising asset prices
By Carter Dougherty- International Herald Tribune
Friday, April 15, 2005
Bank signals that it might raise rates
"The European Central Bank said Thursday that rising asset prices could lead it to raise interest rates even if growth in the 12-nation euro zone remained sluggish this year and inflation stayed under control. The statement, made in an article in the bank's monthly bulletin, marked the clearest indication yet that the ECB might respond to soaring real estate prices in some euro-zone countries by tightening credit - a controversial step in central banking circles.
The article is couched in the circumspect language that is typical of ECB pronouncements. But it clearly expresses the bank's concern that historically low interest rates are pumping money into real estate, and that slowing this trend with higher borrowing costs outweighs the risks to economic growth."

Soaring real estate prices in some eurozone countries
herald a likely price crash. ECB officials need to appear as acting responsibly to ameliorate dramatic real estate declines and a "recession" blamed on it or other "asset bubbles". But according to the article, ECB allegedly maintains that there are no signs of observable inflation, despite a rising oil price. If so, what is rising real estate- deflation?
Irregardless, any ECB monetary policy action, or inaction
on their benchmark interest rate, though anticipated by insiders, will elicit significant market movements around the world.

commishDOW Closing#1312134/15/05; 14:26:35

-191.24 Vol 2,688,516,000

The PPT no doubt was involved. I noticed it also how the ticker didn't move prior to closing.

PNB16 million ounces.#1312144/15/05; 14:41:30

Who do you think will be providing the debt relief - ie, who will be buying the 16 million ounces?

As investors are missing from the gold market, who will stump up 7000000000 USD, and will they expect that gold would continue to decline against a basket of currencies?

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.From this week's USAGOLD Market Update#1312174/15/05; 14:52:26

Is Anybody Listening?

This past week was a quiet one for gold, but it could very well have been the calm before the storm.

A vanguard of highly regarded analysts have begun to voice concerns that there is too much complacency in the face of some of the most far-reaching threats to stock market stability in memory. Among these, they point to a new round of corporate scandals mixed with potentially devastating debt and derivative problems in some of the world's largest business enterprises. They throw in an international monetary and economic system at the brink of chaos, and a dollar which could resume its downward bias with a vengeance.

In the face of all this, they say, financial markets sustain current price levels as if they haven't a care in the world, and that is usually a prelude to major corrections. The New York Stock Exchange Bullish Sentiment chart -- now at nearly 63% of advisers and at the high end of the range -- is indicative. This very same complacency dominated market thinking just prior to the stock market collapses of 1929, 1987 and 2000. (More at link above,)

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

DJIA down 198 today, 400+ on week. Looks like someone is listening.

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1312184/15/05; 14:57:31">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Friday market excerpts

April 15 (from Reuters) -- U.S. gold futures climbed from two-month lows to finish higher on Friday, after a mixed bag of U.S. data fanned worries about the economy and pressured the dollar following its previous surge against the euro.

COMEX June gold futures gained 90 cents to end at $426.50. The settlement was near the 200-day moving average -- at $426.70, basis COMEX June -- a closely watched long term trend-line.

James Moore, analyst at, said persistent concerns about the U.S. trade, budget and current account deficits had created a tone of overall dollar bearishness.

"Ultimately this will work in gold's favor, being a strong hedge against inflation, and suggests $500/oz is still an attainable target this year," he said.

But, near-term, gold was pegged in a $420-430, because traders were cautious ahead of a International Monetary Fund meeting this weekend, he added.

In Washington this weekend, British Finance Minister Gordon Brown is due to press his G7 colleagues from the world's leading industrial powers to back his proposals, which include the sale or revaluation of IMF gold to fund debt relief. Floor traders said some gold dealers were covering short positions in early trading while the specs are getting out of some holdings before the weekend.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)----


Dow tumbles 198 points on economic worries; third straight 100-point loss

Dollar falters on weak US data, focus on G7

Bush Says He Wants To See China Float Its Currency

Economic Powers to Discuss Oil Prices

COMEX gold ends higher, trade cautious before IMF

Flooding threat lifted at SA gold mines

Cavan ManPNB#1312204/15/05; 15:01:36

We're jsut getting started. The typical European investor whether fund or individual is just getting a clue. The Canadians are flocking to Europe en masse. The fun is just beginning. Raise cash. Buy gold.
TopazCPM ...speaking of 200MA.#1312214/15/05; 15:09:39

It's curious how much or many tradeables are at or near this inflection point now.

The Currency charts (linked) show some serious S/R points for the majors with most notable imo being CHF.

As GtW is off doing his Tax Return his absence, might I suggest some other "official" post a "King-of-the-Hill" Report.

I do so look forward to the KotH reports during the Competitions...mind you I've never had the Honour of actually receiving the Title...
...but it REALLY adds to the fun of it all and confers a certain "sage" status to the recipients, albeit for only a short time.

God I miss those KotH Reports...;-)

GoldiloxPoor Larry Kudlow#1312224/15/05; 15:33:09

He's having such a hard time getting support from his usual shills today. My favorite statement out of his open-mouth lunacy today is that "growth will continue at 3.5% and profits will double that at 8-10%". I'm so not surprised to see that this "economist" can't even get second grade arithmetic right.

His one supporter today is a JPM analyst who thinks we should buy buy buy this market correction.

It's hilarious how these idiots become "market contrarians" three days into the third wave contraction. They will undoubtedly tell us to sell sell sell about 4000 points down from here. Shades of 2001!

He should have asked Abby Jo the dot-com perma-bull to help cheerlead today.

"Rip, Rah, Ree, kick 'em in the knee -
Rip, Rah, Rass, kick 'em in the other knee!

TopazFraction too much Friction.#1312234/15/05; 16:05:40

As if EQ's weren't enough, now those poor souls in Indonesia have volcanoes to contend with.
YGMGAB#1312244/15/05; 16:33:58

Like the saying goes, Truth is often stranger than Fiction.
SmeagolNo parking in the 200 MA red zone!#1312254/15/05; 16:57:15$tran,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G

The Dow loses power as the Tranny shifts into reverse.

...Ai! Ssir Gandalf, you like waterfalls... here's one for you! (grin)


Got Precious, precious?

SmeagolSsir Slingshot...#1312264/15/05; 17:16:04

Eyes bright in those woods, may see ssome interessting things in there tomorrow. (a wink and a grin)


R PowellVIX#1312274/15/05; 18:49:30

CBOE Volatility Index...!!!
I hate to sing the old "it's different this time" tune but, if there is any validity in this fear or complacency indicator, well...?
happy Springtime weekend to those in the Northern Hemeshere....

R PowellSpelling#1312284/15/05; 18:52:35

May I change that hemephere to hemisphere? Thanks.
adminReminder#1312294/15/05; 20:07:38

We have been in Open Forum since 12 noon MDT today through Sunday 12 noon MDT. Post at will. . . . .
goldeyeVery good environment for gold and goldies#1312304/15/05; 20:28:31

The 10-year bond yield closed a titch over 4.24% and cash DX closed around 84.50. The pog has held its' own @ around $425. But today the gold indices were down in sync with the SMs. So where do we stand my friends? Well, from my perspective I think the pog and goldies (gold stox) are about to rally nicely. The bond market is basically saying that the U.S. economy is weak and that the Fed at best will keep a "measured" pace (i.e. no aggressive rate hikes). This weekend the G7 nations meet and I suspect they'll be privately taking a lot of their time coming up with a co-ordinated plan to avert a mini crashette of the SMs come Monday a.m. Of course this won't be discusssed in their meeting minutes to be released on Sunday. In short, slower growth = lower interest rates as per the benchmark 10-yr. -- on the same hand I think we'll see higher commodity prices at least because of continued China demand and relatively low supply. fwiw. Jmvho.
Gandalf the WhiteTA TA TAAAAA -- THE KING of the HILL REPORT !!! <;-)#1312314/15/05; 20:32:23

TC said, "COMEX June gold futures gained 90 cents to end at $426.50".
THEREFORE, STANDING atop the HILL "Downunder" is Sir Topaz, KING of the HILL for Friday 4/15/05 !!! <;-)
$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (4/13/05; 03:16:49MT - msg#: 131139)
THANKS, Sir Topaz ! <;-)
FINALLY, US TAXES are completed !
(I am now awaiting the action of the US Treasury Department.)
Get ready for a BIG ORDER, USAGOLD (as soon as the refund arrives). <;-)

Gandalf the WhiteARE you ready to "ROCK and ROLL" ? <;-)#1312324/15/05; 21:20:21$GOLD,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G


GoldendomeSir goldeye#1312334/15/05; 21:27:48

I am in agreement with your observations for cautious management of this precarious situation by the Fed and Central banks. A question yet to be answered will be: will our Fed be able to continue raising short term rates to prop up the dollar or will they hold pat in fear of exacerbating what may be an economy that is turning down? Too early to tell, IMO.

If perception has it that short term increases are over, then the possibility exists that some perimeter player holding a significant amount of dollars, may decide to be the first one out the door, causing a problem.

A continued raising of short term rates with long terms holding steady gives that old problem of the flattening or possibly inverted yield curve, another problem.

As Sir SSmeagol showed in his chart of the transports today, the stock market is in serious trouble. Should we listen for the "seriously oversold" mantra from the usual suspects this weekend, followed by a concerted "buy" effort next Monday and Tuesday by all those vested? We should think so.

Foreign central banks know full well that their currencies are in the same boat as the dollar. If they scuttle the boat, then they all perish. It is a matter of hanging together lest they hang separately (with thanks to Antale Fekete for the felicitous phrase).

Great Albino BatWashington DEMANDS action on the renminbi by China...#1312344/15/05; 23:52:44

"The US administration is calling for China to move immediately to introduce a flexible currency, a marked shift in tactics after several years of patient diplomacy aimed at nudging China towards allowing the renminbi to float."

Well, well, well! So now we are demanding, are we?

This will be quite interesting. Who is going to blink first?

A US official once said to a foreign nation, "The Dollar is YOUR problem, not ours."

Now the Dollar is the American problem. Shoe is on the other foot, it seems.

US determined that the fiat dollar was world's money, take it or leave it. Now that great privilege is turning into a "King Midas" curse - remember, he was the king who turned everything into gold with the touch of his hand. So finally, he could not even eat.

The Chinese took up the US imposition and - very like Chinese thinking - turned the enemy's advantage into the enemy's destruction.

"So you Americans pay with paper? OK, we Chinese sell for your paper. We sell to you until it kills your industry. Game over for great USA."

"Dollar YOUR problem, not Chinese problem. YOU fix problem, not China."

VERY interesting indeed.


TopazHa! ...thanks Gandy.#1312354/16/05; 01:57:23

I just KNEW I could lure you away from the mundane to confer the Honour...
...might I add, "much-deserved" <wink>

My first duty as "KinG" is to decree that MK post his Euro observations as mentioned Wednesday.
MK (4/13/05; 13:40:58MT - msg#: 131154)

As far as Tax returns go, a simple:-
NTR ...I'm a GoldBug damnit!
scrawled across the front of the form would do the trick.

In due course, you'd get a nice letter from Treasury offering condolences and suggesting some fiscal rehab courses to get you back on the program.
They might even throw in a few put options for good measure.

They DO care you know!

ToolieOddly enough, from the Dallas Fed site.#1312364/16/05; 05:07:31

The Potential Pitfalls for Paper Monies
There is no point more important in issuing paper money, than to be fully impressed with the effects which follow from the principle of limitation of quantity. It will scarcely be believed fifty years hence, that Bank directors and ministers gravely contended in our times, both in parliament, and before committees of parliament, that the issue of notes by the Bank of England, unchecked by any power in the holders of such notes, to demand in exchange either specie, or bullion, had not, nor could have any effect on the prices of commodities, bullion, or foreign exchanges. After the establishment of Banks, the State has not the sole power of coining or issuing money. The currency may as effectually be increased by paper as by coin; so that if a State were to debase its money, and limit its quantity, it could not support its value, because the Banks would have an equal power of adding to the whole quantity of circulation. On these principles, it will be seen that it is not necessary that paper money should be payable in specie to secure its value; it is only necessary that its quantity should be regulated according to the value of the metal which is declared to be the standard. If the standard were gold of a given weight and fineness, paper might be increased with every fall in the value of gold, or, which is the same thing in its effects, with every rise in the price of goods…. Experience, however, shows, that neither a State nor a Bank ever have had the unrestricted power of issuing paper money, without abusing that power: in all States, therefore, the issue of paper money ought to be under some check and control; and none seems so proper for that purpose, as that of subjecting the issuers of paper money to the obligation of paying their notes, either in gold coin or bullion.
—On the Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, 353–54, 356.

SundeckUS Trade Deficit - China is not the only "culprit"#1312374/16/05; 06:59:20

GAB message #131234 et al.

All the sound and fury coming out of Washington and directed towards China is a bit lopsided, methinks.

It is worth noting that the US appears to be running a trade deficit with ALL its major trading partners.

For example, for the first two months of 2005, US trade deficits were:

China $29.13B
Japan $13.08B
Canada $11.92B
Germany $ 7.22B
Mexico $ 6.58B
Venezeula $ 3.75B
Malaysia $ 2.98B
Ireland $ 2.97B
Nigeria $ 2.94B
Saudi A. $ 2.68B

(From the Australian Financial Review, 14Apr05)

So, while China is the biggest, it is by no means atypical. It appears that:

1. the US dollar is uncompetitive with many other currencies, or
2. no other countries want much of what the US has to offer, or
3. those "shop-'till-you-drop" Americans just can't seem to help themselves...

If China floats the renminbi, will that cure the deficits with other trading partners?

Perhaps the rhetoric against China is just for home political consumption...better than picking on the Japanese, the Germans and the Canadians...perhaps.

As well, my understanding is that while China has a trade surplus with the US, overall it is about trade-neutral with the world as a whole. If their currency was to strengthen, China would probably start running a trade deficit.

Unfortunately, GAB, the $US is not just the USA's is the WORLD'S problem this time.

Interesting times...


SundeckFinancial and trade imbalances#1312384/16/05; 07:19:16

...following on the same theme...

Is it just me, or does anyone else feel that there is an over-riding state of denial in Washington (and the USA as a whole) of the extent of the financial problems?

...and that there is almost a "blind faith", held by the financial fraternity, in the power and ability of the likes of Greenspan and others to engineer benign corrections and outcomes, and that all will be well, that IT can't happen to us?

...and that the rest of the world does not seem to be able to articulate a satisfactory strategy entailing a change away from the dollar as the reserve currency...almost like people are holding their breath and hoping that the problems will miraculously evapourate if the system can be just kept going for another day?

Can you imagine the problems that large resource companies like BHP_Billiton have in trying to strike a price in US dollars for their products up to a year in advance? Imagine trying to hedge that sort of currency exposure in the present climate.



PNB16 Moz#1312394/16/05; 07:54:45

Cavan Man.
It's alot of Gold to drop on the market.
I doubt investors or funds would buy it up knowing that if the IMF gets approval it wont be too long before they want to drop on another ton.

The only buyers I could see would be reserve banks - and this spits in the face of their current policy of reducing Gold holdings.
The reserve banks of the countries that want to provide debt relief : buying the gold - for the 'good' of the debtor nation.

Of course it wont make any difference to the debtor country - they will just leverage up and go back into debt.

You and I will pay for this gold - but we will not own it!

Revolution time.

SmeagolThe only known chapter from a Lossst Tale...#1312404/16/05; 09:41:28

The handler-priests in saffron robes could be seen, positioned high up in the heavy rafters of the Hold, now using their long staves to fend the Beast below. Their faces seemed set in stern lines of concern, illuminated in the warm glow of the late afternoon sun that slanted into the massive gilded woodwork of the Hold, setting it ablaze in a yellow gleam. Its raftered roof was not covered and opened to the sky; sunlight reflected from its interior glinted richly around the edges of its thick figured wooden gates and flickered under them as the Beast pent within bellowed and thrashed. Chains rattled and the beams of the walls of the Hold creaked. The assembly was disturbed. Priests in robes of various kinds and colors huddled nearby, some raised their voices and gestured. There was obviously some disagreement as to what to do; indeed there seemed to be some confusion as to what exactly was happening in the first place. Now and then a deep thump could be heard, almost felt. They could hear shouting, but the words could not be heard clearly at this distance.

"What's going on?"
"I'm not sure. I've been out here many times and never saw anything quite like this before, have you?"
"No, and I don't think I like it. Maybe we should go back now. We aren't supposed to be here anyway - Temple rituals are secret and we'll get in big trouble if we're spotted."
"Not to worry, I'm wearing my lucky charm. See?"
"Hey, you're not supposed to have that!"
"Yeah, well… speak for yourself, heretic."

They were wearing gold, which was against the law and the teachings of the Order. But old customs die hard, and law or not, talismans and amulets of the yellow metal were still surreptitiously handed down through the generations as a protection against misfortune. They chuckled softly at their little joke and then returned to watching the increasingly curious activities around the Hold.

"It takes a long time to sneak around the Temple from Town-side to get here, and I'm not about to leave without seeing a little more, even if I have to find my way home under moon and star. I doubt the watchers will spy us with all this going on. Let's see if we can get a little closer!"

They left their hiding-place under the wide drooping branches of the tree and moved cautiously, staying low and creeping carefully through the tall grasses, angling for the cover of smaller trees and brush nearer the open meadow where the Hold stood. From their new vantage in a patch of tall grass they could see the rear of the sprawling Temple which was on the far side of the field, and the path that led from it to the Hold of the Beast, and they could almost see the gates of the Hold, which faced the Temple.

"Have you ever actually seen the Beast?"
"No, have you?"
"No. What do you think it is?"
"I haven't a clue, but it must be very strong to need a Hold like that. Look!"

More attendants and priests had arrived and there was shouting. Many were shouldering heavy poles, some as elaborately carved and gilded as the Hold itself. Now the handler-priests were climbing down from their perches. Fear showed on many pale faces. The scene was in stark contrast to the usual orderly ritual. The Hold shook as the Beast tested its confinement and many were yelling excitedly, fearfully. From words caught by the two hidden onlookers it became apparent that the Beast had broken free of its bonds, and that some change unexpected and unusual was occurring. What it was soon became apparent to all. The sun was lower and reddening toward sunset, but more than its reflected light now welled from within the Beast's prison.

There was now a moving radiance within the Hold as if from a bright fire; it seeped through the slits between the wall-beams. The light shifted, and the great timbers of the Hold boomed and swayed. Some of the assembled had begun to back away from the scene; a few were running away down the path toward the Temple. Amid the bedlam, attendants, handlers and priests alike moved to lift dozens of the heavy carven poles against the walls and gates of the hold to brace it. Others hurriedly pounded iron stakes into the ground at the ends of the poles to hold them in place.

"I don't recall anything about THAT in the History-teachings."
"Me either. Is the Beast dangerous? They tell us that it is ancient and very evil. Only the priests are allowed to see or touch it, and it is said they use gold to ward it."
"It seems that way, but the Order alone keeps the Histories, and I don't trust them. For my own part I think they've-"

A loud boom rolled across the field. There was much yelling and people running to and fro. The gates of the Hold had begun to splinter and yellow light flickered in the splits. BOOM. Hinges moaned and snapped. BOOM. The light within lunged back and forth. BOOM. Brace-poles fell askew and heavily, on the ground and upon those unfortunate enough to be caught under them, even as attempts were made to raise more poles to replace them. BOOM! Chains rapped and clattered, and in a final rending crash the gates of the Hold were thrown down. All those that were still on the field broke and scattered, and the Beast emerged. Its amber brilliance spilled across the meadow as the sun slipped behind the western mountains.


"It's all…gold!"
"It's…it's huge."
"Look how fast it moves!"

They watched, mesmerized by its sheer power and speed, their gaze held by its rippling beauty, as in patterns of swinging light and shadow the great Beast, seemingly all of shining liquid gold, ran down the fleeing priests, handlers and acolytes with terrifying speed, trampling them and scattering all their icons and cryptic books and papers to the wind. Back and forth across the wide meadow it thundered, moving faster than it seemed possible for a thing of its size and mass. Whether it was mindlessly slaying in its newfound freedom, or exacting some long-smoldering vengeance they could not tell. A remnant of the scattered assembly made it to the apparent safety of the Temple building, in front of which the Beast now paced and stamped impatiently. None withstood it, and none could have.

"I don't think this was supposed to happen."
"No wonder they kept it penned up."
"I don't have a lot of love for the Order anyway, if you catch my drift."
"You don't really mind that they might have had something like this coming to them someday, so to speak?"
"So to speak, yes."

Then it returned, crossing the meadow again, circling triumphantly, and rammed the Hold repeatedly, and trampled it with what almost seemed gleefulness, if a Beast could know such, until its former prison was left in splintered ruin. In all this it appeared to have suffered not so much as a scratch. Then it raised its mighty head and bellowed. The sound rang in their ears and echoed in the twilit hills. It walked now in an expansive pool of golden light, majestic and proud and unsullied.

"I've never seen anything like that in my life."
"Shhh. Don't move."

The Beast halted, pawed the ground restlessly, looked around and snorted. In the fascination and excitement of its escape and rampage, they had unconsciously risen to their feet to better view the events on the field. They now stood exposed, and the Beast had seen them.

It turned now and began loping quickly towards them, wide hooves thudding on the turf. There was no chance of outrunning it; they stood paralyzed by fear (or hypnotized with wonder?), staring at the growing golden brightness like rabbits at a snake. But it did not charge, and slowed as it came, until it stood but a few feet away, towering. Its horns spanned more than the height of a tall Man. They could feel its hot breath, as it were the draft from a forge. An odd thing happened then. The great shining golden Beast gave a mighty snort, and turned and trotted off into the meadow.

"You do not run, like the others. And, you wear gold. You will live." said a voice from behind.

Surprised, they whirled to face the voice. The slowly fading light from the retreating Beast fell upon a bespectacled elder dressed in the simple garb of the people of the hills. Resting in the crook of one arm was a worn leather bound ledger, in which he was writing. Around his neck were several gold chains; hanging from one of these was a large octagonal gold medallion depicting a running Beast.

"The heretic from the Mountain!" they said, almost in unison. Everyone knew about the Heretic. A former Priest of the Order, he would sometimes appear in the Town square, speaking what the Order considered heresies. He was considered by the Townsfolk to be mostly harmless, yet the Order had placed a price on his head and he had been driven into hiding in the hills.

"The heretics from the Town!" the elder replied in a half-mocking singsong as he wrote. Then he looked up and laughed. He looked past them at the glowing Beast which was now leisurely walking across the meadow toward the Temple.

"And that's not an evil Beast; it's a friendly Beast, as it has ever been, but it very much hates being cooped up." He chuckled. "The Order could never really hope to contain it forever; I knew it would break free some day, and I have kept watch. And of all days today was the day. My, oh my! What a thing to have happen in our lifetimes!

"It didn't seem very friendly to some" said one, looking out over the meadow. "Where is it going? What will it do now?"

"I think, to finish some… shall I say ‘old business’ with the Order, at the Temple?" the elder replied with a wry smile.

"What is that book?" the other asked.

"It is a History." the elder said as he closed and latched the tome and pocketed his pen. "No, not a History of, from, or by the Order," he said with a smirk, as their eyes widened, "It is but a History that I and many friends keep, viewed through our own eyes. You are a part of it, by the way. I would gladly share it with you, and you may also contribute to it if you so choose, should you care to sit and share a bit of bread and herbed meat by an old heretic's fire. It is not too far to my present camp." He grinned. "Who knows, you may even take some news back to town to share on the morrow, after you find your way home tonight under moon and star… or morning Sun! I can tell you much concerning your ‘lucky charms’." he said, patting the book.

He walked past them out into the Meadow, out to where the wreckage of the Hold lay scattered in the evening twilight. They could no longer see the Beast, but the trees on the other side of the Temple were now illuminated by a yellow light from below. They watched as he picked through the flotsam and returned. He handed them several small pieces of carved gilded wood. "Souvenirs", he said, but as they accepted them he added, with a strange solemnity, "The people will find once again the wealth they lost, and remember the knowledge that was hidden from them."

Then he turned away, and they followed him into the woods under the opening stars, winding their way through dale and over hill toward his camp, which was nestled in a half-hidden fold of the Mountain's foot. As they walked they talked among themselves. A momentous thing had occurred, a change not seen in centuries, a change they had seen with their own eyes. Things would be different come morning.

Faintly from afar through the trees came the echoes of ‘old business’ being settled at the Temple of the Order. They all smiled.


GoldiloxFiscal Denial or political denial?#1312414/16/05; 09:51:14

@ Sundeck,

Your quote "Is it just me, or does anyone else feel that there is an over-riding state of denial in Washington (and the USA as a whole) of the extent of the financial problems?"

was just the topic of conversation at dinner last night.

We can't just say that TPTB are all career bureaucrats who couldn't run a business if they tried, because many have successfully - although a number of those businesses have been run bankrupt with funds mysteriously disappearing lately.

One theory is, of course, that they know what is coming, but have accepted a certain powerlessness to combat it - leaving only the rhetoric under their control. If this is true, perhaps many of them are well set up in Caribbean money havens and just don't care!

One thing about revolutions. The real powers sit back and watch, knowing they can retake control when the smoke clears and the populace is tired of fighting each other. Rothschild's statement about "control of the currency" is brought to mind. As an example, the American Revolution (all about taxation of rates of 5% w/o representation) has brought us taxation WITH representation of about 50%, not even counting the 97% loss of the dollar's value during the reign of the FED. The selfs in medieval times that gave their masters 25% of the harvest were far less financially oppressed.

The military commitment remains still the same - once you are over-taxed to keep the masters' tables fattened, you must also supply progeny for the "ideoloical" slaughters called "crusades" or "War on Terror". New oligarchs are installed and the people are assured that they are now "free" and "safe".

Appointments to power positions are more based on loyalty than success in previous endeavors - the greatest example being Gerry Ford's "appointment" to the Vice-Presidency after Agnew's "slip" in getting indicted for racketeering - just in time to assume the Presidency when Nixon "retired". His supreme act of loyalty was shown by serving in the Warren Commission whitewash that was used to convince the masses that a lone gunman staged the coup of 1963.

When the dollar slide goes hyperbolic, as it did in Weimar Germany, Americans will line up for whatever will "save" them from ruin, as did the Germans when it was their turn in the barrel. IG Farbin ran the concentration camps, war industries, etc., and once the war was over, the corporation was dissolved and the leaders got new jobs with the USA and USSR - minus a few Nuremberg sacrificial lambs. Jodl was hanged, but his generals became NATO leaders. SS leaders bargained their intel for high positions in the OSS and KGB. Since then the CIA and KGB have become "industry captains" as evidenced by Bill Casey's "Capital Cities" - the owner of ABC before Disney, and the Russian oligarchs - "owners" of the new caplitalist Russia.

The political bodies and laws change from time to time, but the power plays remain sadly the same, as do most of the protagonists.

Like someone said earlier, I do not wish for gold to reach five figures, as it will be too vulnerable at that point to the political greed factor, and goldbugs will likely become criminals by edict once again. We've already heard such nonsence as "Gold is currency of terrorists" - ignoring the fact that huge bank transactions are also the "currency of terrorists", along with arms trade, drug trade, and "foreign aid".

Smeagol #1312424/16/05; 10:03:12

WELL ssaid, Ssir Goldilox!



POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 4/16/05, SATURDAY at 11:11 Denver time

Ok -- Time to get THINKING again about the ENTRY QUESTION, and the PRICE of GOLD at SETTLEMENT on Friday ! ONLY three more "Trading Days" to go, as the ENTRY DEADLINE is Wednesday midnight in Denver.

Entries listed in order of decending values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (4/13/05; 18:05:18MT - msg#: 131160)

$$$$ $462.0 $$$$Whitewaterwoman (4/14/05; 09:16:26MT - msg#: 131173)

$$$$ $451.2 $$$$ mikal (4/14/05; 23:59:56MT - msg#: 131195)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Goldilox (4/12/05; 23:58:41MT - msg#: 131136)

$$$$ $442.1 $$$$ Henri (4/13/05; 11:07:18MT - msg#: 131147)

$$$$ $438.5 $$$$ Bulldog (4/14/05; 12:50:53MT - msg#: 131178)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ commish (4/12/05; 22:46:35MT - msg#: 131135)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ Rustee (4/13/05; 09:58:16MT - msg#: 131144)

$$$$ $434.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (4/13/05; 09:58:54MT - msg#: 131145)

$$$$ $432.1 $$$$ Smeagol (4/13/05; 17:20:02MT - msg#: 131159)

$$$$ $428.7 $$$$ slingshot (4/15/05; 06:16:47MT - msg#: 131196)

$$$$ $427.5 $$$$ 2023 (4/13/05; 07:47:34MT - msg#: 131141)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (4/13/05; 03:16:49MT - msg#: 131139)

$$$$ $423.5 $$$$ Liberty Head (4/14/05; 20:11:28MT - msg#: 131189)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Federal_Reserves (4/13/05; 16:59:33MT - msg#: 131158)


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) June 2005 Gold Contract (GCM5) on the date of Friday, April 22, 2005.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $444.4)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $444.4 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Wednesday, April 20, 2005.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph, or more, discussing
"THE QUESTION". <===== NOTE !!!

goldeyeMonday morning will be interesting!!!#1312444/16/05; 12:14:02

Boy, that's an understatement. Depending on what the SMs do the benchmark 10-year yield could very well get below 4.20%. Plus next week there's a slew of inflation data that could put the Fed between a rock and a hard place if a consistent pick-up in inflation is evident. Does the Fed attempt to "talk up" interest rates or does it supply more liquidity?

Now this is where gold very much enters the picture. If the foreseeable trend in the bond market yield is for lower and lower rates then it is logical to assume that the DX has no choice but to go lower. Of course this will mean sustainably higher gold and goldie prices.

The pog has been remarkable resilient in the past month or so relative to the XAU and HUI. Does the pog know what the bond market knows or will the pog follow the precursor lead of the goldies? Or is the drop in the goldies all in sympathy with the SMs? The resiliency of the pog is even more remarkable considering that we should hear the IMF decision regarding gold sales over the weekend. All above comments fwiw and Jmvho.

goldeyeSir Goldendome#1312454/16/05; 12:20:21

Thanks for your detailed response to my post yesterday -- much appreciated my friend. Later.
1340ccSmealgol's Survival Story, Lost Tale #1312464/16/05; 13:59:51

Sir Smealgol, You have told a true survival story. Wonderful! I hope it is a story that is soon to come true. Frugal Squrrel's story forum would be proud.
Chris PowellDan Norcini's new study ....#1312474/16/05; 14:07:00

... shows that someone is aggressively
capping the gold price as the U.S.
economy stars falling apart.

Latest GATA dispatch.

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OvS$$$$$437.0$$$$$#1312484/16/05; 14:41:41

A nightmare American inflation is not
The German inflation was government
induced. It was not some uncontrolled
natural disaster that struck. It was
premeditated and ment to get around
the bankruptcy insuring terms of the
Versailles peace treaty.
Here in America it will be a gathering
inflation to balance the monstrous
international debt. There is a "sound"
logical argument that the current
"binge" of consumerism has saved us from
a possibly occuring worldwide depression,
from an Moslem lead physical destruction,
and now this financially bloated balloon
will be, if possible, "managed" to de-
flate with the concurrence of the Central
Banks, orchestrated by the Federal Reserve.
To guess at a high "price" of gold would
be futile: How much inflation would wipe
out accumulated and currently generated
debt is open to opinions and will befurther
influenced by psychological factors. Let's
say: it's going to be surprising...Cheers.

MKG7: "Thanks but no thanks" to gold sales#1312494/16/05; 15:37:29

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Group of Seven economic powers on Saturday failed once again to agree on how to free Africa from debt and poverty.

Aid agencies had wanted the rich countries to make good on their pledge to help rid the world's poorest countries of their crippling debt but ministers once again could not decide on the best way to pay for this.

Their final statement after a Saturday meeting went no further than thanking the International Monetary Fund for a study on how its gold reserves could be used to help fund 100 percent debt relief and promising more discussion.

"There was complete silence from the G7 on the sale of IMF gold. Yet the IMF has clearly said the gold can be sold to help cancel poor countries' debt," said Jonathan Hepburn, policy adviser for Oxfam International. End snip


Now what for Gordon Brown? TreasSec Snow voices opposition to plan.

Gandalf the WhiteAre YOU sure, Sir Smeagol ?#1312504/16/05; 16:18:13

is not ANOTHER Chapter to be FOUND ?

GoldiloxVersailles Treaty#1312514/16/05; 17:59:04

@ OvS,

It was my understanding that the Versailles Treaty specified payment in the creditor's currency, so the Weimar inflafla really did nothing to ease the debt. I may be wrong. It's happened before.

In the case of the US $, a "managed" inflafla might be more effective, as most of the debt IS denominated in US $.

I think we agree, however, that the idea of managing dollar inflafla to the point of relieving debt pressure without bursting the pipes will be a very tricky task, as markets and the FED both tend to overshoot their corrections.

A gold price in the 1000-1500 range could occur under controlled $ management. Much above that number might portend a runaway train.

mikalWeekend "offtopic" news banquet#1312534/16/05; 19:30:34

Be sure to read to the end. A familiar knight
brings tasty golden porridge to
ye news banquet at the tableround. Bon Appetit!

Canada- CBC News- Power remains out for hundreds of Sask. homes
ABC News- Sunni Militants Take 100 Shiites Hostage
Reuters- G7 Seeks Steps to Cut World Imbalances ["G7 Seeks (baby) steps"]
ABC News- Magnitude-5.1 Earthquake Strikes Calif.
CBS News- Anti-Japan Rampage In Shanghai
Bloomberg- Bush Urges Members of Congress to Act Quickly on Approving Energy Bill [Almost beaten to the punch]
CNN- Japan demands China apology [Diplomatic approach]
Chicago (IL) Tribune* (Reg. Required) Pyramid could take a new shape[Not ANOTHER geometric wonder!]
ABC News- Airport Security Hasn't Improved [Seriously?]
MSNBC- State Of Emergency In Ecuador [Hmmm, U.S. is still in "war powers" emergency]
Washington (DC) Times- McCain irks Republicans over anti-filibuster option [Irks? Try fistfighting]
Washington (DC) Times- Border patrols inspire imitation
Brothers Grimm Wire- Goldilox Visits "Golden Bear" Mag-Lev on Fast Track - "New U.S. Rail System Tops 10,000 Connections"

Cavan ManMK#1312544/16/05; 20:04:03

The Euro market is DEEP. There is no alternative fiat currency with proper timing to serve as a needed alternative to the USD for international settlement. Gold shines anyway and for a multitude of reasons. 'Tis a complex subject yes? I'm making the call; gold disconnects from USD no later than end of Q3 2005 and EU disconnects from EMU/EURO (commerce) perhaps much sooner. Euros bought north of $1 OK. Best...CM

PS: Skiing at Copper was GREAT this Spring!

mikalChina at IMF: "Address Imbalances"#1312554/16/05; 21:12:48

Rich nations with more duty in global economy
Xinhua - April 17, 2005

GoldiloxThe Political Lynching of Mexico's Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador#1312564/16/05; 22:03:56


Mexico's fragile hold on democracy was dealt a serious blow last week when its House of Representatives voted to impeach and possibly jail the country's leading candidate for the 2006 presidency. In 2000, when President Vicente Fox defeated the long ruling PRI party and its 70 year monopoly on power few, such as myself who was there as an election observer, would have predicted that five years later Fox would willingly join his old nemesis in a political shenanigan with such grave implications for Mexico's democratic future and stability.

The target of the impeachment vote, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, was, until last Thursday, the popular center-left mayor of Mexico City. Then, just hours after he announced his intention to run for president to a rally of 150,000 supporters he was stripped of his mayoral immunity. Now he may face jail for allegedly ignoring a judge's order to halt construction of an access road to a city hospital across a contested patch of private land. That a low level administrative dispute of this sort could be parlayed into an impeachable offense reflects the backsliding of Mexican politics under President Fox.


Fox, already under the microscope for issues related to US border politics, now finds himself in a pickle over indictment of his rival candidate for what would seem a civil offense.

Mexican politics is always fun to watch, as their shenanigans are less sanitized by the media than their northern counterparts.

Goldilox"EU disconnects from EMU/Euro (commerce) sooner than Q3?"#1312574/16/05; 22:09:25

@ Cavan Man,

Are you suggesting with the above statement that the Euro dies before Q3, or am I missing your point?


Golden Lionheart**************$417.50**************#1312584/16/05; 22:57:23

There will be no Nightmare American Inflation because the Powers that Be will have enough power to stop such an occurence But even without NAI I see gold rising to around $600 in the next year or so.
mackattack$$$$415.50$$$$$#1312604/17/05; 00:46:36

What worries me the most is that there may actually be no real place to truly(fully) escape the inflation.They will take away by inflating while holding down gold.Without an escape hatch the common man will find no place to truly hide/make capital and pay his bills.In germany (wiemar 1929)they couldnt hold gold down with endless paper derivatives.Gold will rocket when the comex says "we have no physical for delivery,cash settlement only".In the meantime these guys may sell the farm(all their physical),why?Because the alternative is a nightmare anyway.Im expecting them to take one last big run at p.o.g based on the pm stock performance last week.God help the common man/woman with too much debt.


Beamer$$$$$$ 474.1 $$$$$$$#1312614/17/05; 01:40:45

The nightmare American inflation question is a topic of heated debate during the past year. The American government does not see inflation as an issue and have stated this opinion. The CPI does not reflect the problem of inflation but concerns exist about its reliability. All basic materials have soared in price primarily based on the huge consumption demand coming from China. It will not end any time soon. Whether China revalues the yuan or whether they increase prices of exports, inflation is on track to increase exponentially in the coming years and as a result, the nightmare American inflation will no longer be a question but rather a reality. Gold looks very promising from here.
PNB$$$$439.90$$$$$#1312624/17/05; 04:17:48

Inflation is not the American Nightmare. Deflation is.

As the US is a USD denominated debtor nation, inflation is the preferred outcome, and is easily engineered.

Paradigm shift imminent :

We have tried to stimulate the global economy through low interest rates which has caused other asset classes to bubble.
The current gentle approach to increasing interest rates to a level in line with inflation will stop growth dead in it's tracks.

This leaves two options:
1. Runaway deflation. Can and will be avoided.
2. Targeted monetary inflation while capping inflation in other asset classes. This can only be done through higher interest rates. This is the shift we will soon see.
Slower growth will lead to analysts calling for a reduction in interest rates. But the reserve banks will raise them!

Paradigm shift pandemonium ensues.

HOOSIER GOLDBUG$$$$$$$$$$ 428.9 $$$$$$$$$$$$$#1312634/17/05; 04:54:11

There will be NO NAI! After a threshold of a certain dollar gold price, slightly higher than the all-time high of 1979/1980, all gold pricing institutions (COMEX-TOSCAM-LBMA-STOCK MARKETS)will fold and their methods of pricing gold will cease to exist, with physical gold attaining any price a willing buyer and willing seller can agree upon on a local basis for tangible commodity, food, housing, etc. transfers of ownership.
Cavan ManGoldilox#1312644/17/05; 06:38:45

I am suggesting the political will disconnect from the economic. Sorry to be so vague. BTW, I understand this is the STRATFOR forecast also FWIW.
TooliePeg the Yuan to gold?#1312654/17/05; 06:53:08

Snip: The idea is simply that China temporarily pegs its currency to gold to facilitate an exit from the insidious clutches of a de facto fixed currency regime and lay the foundation for an eventual transition to a fully floating one.
Gold is often dismissed as a potential monetary anchor for developing economies like China because of the pre-eminent role the US dollar plays in global trade and financing. A peg to the dollar minimizes currency risks for foreign lenders and direct investors, and facilitates capital inflows that are so essential for economic development in capital-poor countries.
This old shoe no longer fits, however, as reflected in China's bulging balance of payment surpluses and exploding foreign exchange reserves, which grew by US$206 billion (HK$1.6 trillion) last year alone.
China's use of band-aid administrative measures has provided a temporary respite from the continuing deluge of hard currency inflows. But a flexible currency is the only long-term solution for dampening dangerous foreign capital inflows, nearly half of which is illegal hot money breaching China's porous capital controls.
Meanwhile, the clock is ticking. (end snip)

An interesting idea. If the US thinks the Yuan is too weak, Drive up the gold price. If China thinks the Yuan is too weak, stack the bars high and wide. Wouldn't an announced buy premium over Comex spot fill the vaults?

HenriToolie#1312664/17/05; 07:55:59

Why would China hitch its wagon to the price of a commodity (in dollars currently) that is so obviously under massive "Management" by those exact entities that want to see China's wealth deposited into their vaults. For that matter, why would any country do such a thing. Perhaps when freegold finally arrives? But no, then gold would still be chained to yuans aaarrgh
arbyh$$$$$$$ 434.65 $$$$$$$$$#1312674/17/05; 07:59:44

I saw the contest and I hope that I have just entered it. Please let me know if I have not..thanks

I do believe China, with their 100 year plan, will have some surprises for us and the dollar when they make the move to float their currency. I guess as someone said they could tie it to gold, and / or "diversify" central bank into euro holdings. I just know they won't take being told what to do lieing down and they will put themselves in the winning seat at all others expense. We will see.

DryWasher$$$$$ $425.0 $$$$$#1312684/17/05; 08:39:09

"The QUESTION -- (Put on your THINKING HATS !)
Is a Nightmare American Inflation (NAI) a possibility as America may have passed the point of no return. SOOO, What could be the price of gold at the NAI's PEAK and WHY ?"

THINKING HAT with FOIL LINER on and secured.


YES, a Nightmare American Inflation (NAI) is absolutely a possibility, and perhaps one might reasonably argue, even a certainty in the not too far distant future.

The price of one ounce of GOLD, in terms of the hyperinflated DOLLAR, will be a very large, and meaningless, number determined by dividing the intrinsic value of one ounce of Gold by the intrinsic value of one hyperinflated Dollar note, without regard for the face value printed on the note.

To understand the meaning of the above strange statement, and to learn just what the intrinsic value of a dollar note is, please click on the above link and page down to the picture of a German housewife extracting the intrinsic value of German Mark notes in her kitchen in 1923.


jimbojim39$$$$$430.50$$$$$$#1312694/17/05; 08:45:42

Sen Shumer, with the collusion of the majority of the Senate has a "brilliant " idea-put a 27.5% tarriff on Chinese imports within six month unless they revalue the yuan significantly. And we thought that the massive liquidity dumped onto our markets post 2000 was inflationary-Katie, bar the door! With manipulation of CPI by every crooked way imagineable, inflation is WAY underestimated! But when the Chinses do revalue, and they will, the lines are going to grow shorter at all our Walmarts as the increased costs of everything we buy-we make next to nothing here-really hits the pocketbooks of Americans. And as the Chinese earn less, they will buy even fewer US Treasuries. The net results: interest rates higher, the dollar even weaker and even more inflationary pressures building up.It is not a matter of "if", it is only a matter of when.


POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 4/17/05, SUNDAY at 09:00 Denver time

BASIS of Question -- (In keeping with the spirit of the German 20 mark coin and referring to the Nightmare German Inflation (NGI) report as seen at the following LINK for educational purposes.) --

The QUESTION -- (Put on your THINKING HATS !)
Is a Nightmare American Inflation (NAI) a possibility as America may have passed the point of no return. SOOO, What could be the price of gold at the NAI's PEAK and WHY ?" in 30 words or more.

Entries listed in order of decending values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (4/13/05; 18:05:18MT - msg#: 131160)

$$$$ $474.1 $$$$ Beamer (4/17/05; 01:40:45MT - msg#: 131261)

$$$$ $462.0 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (4/14/05; 09:16:26MT - msg#: 131173)

$$$$ $451.2 $$$$ mikal (4/14/05; 23:59:56MT - msg#: 131195)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Goldilox (4/12/05; 23:58:41MT - msg#: 131136)

$$$$ $442.1 $$$$ Henri (4/13/05; 11:07:18MT - msg#: 131147)

$$$$ $439.9 $$$$ PNB (4/17/05; 04:17:48MT - msg#: 131262)

$$$$ $438.5 $$$$ Bulldog (4/14/05; 12:50:53MT - msg#: 131178)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ OvS (4/16/05; 14:41:41MT - msg#: 131248)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ commish (4/12/05; 22:46:35MT - msg#: 131135)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ Rustee (4/13/05; 09:58:16MT - msg#: 131144)

$$$$ $434.6 $$$$ arbyh (4/17/05; 07:59:44MT - msg#: 131267)

$$$$ $434.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (4/13/05; 09:58:54MT - msg#: 131145)

$$$$ $432.1 $$$$ Smeagol (4/13/05; 17:20:02MT - msg#: 131159)

$$$$ $430.5 $$$$ jimbojim39 (4/17/05; 08:45:42MT - msg#: 131269)

$$$$ $428.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (4/17/05; 04:54:11MT - msg#: 131263)

$$$$ $428.7 $$$$ slingshot (4/15/05; 06:16:47MT - msg#: 131196)

$$$$ $427.5 $$$$ 2023 (4/13/05; 07:47:34MT - msg#: 131141)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (4/13/05; 03:16:49MT - msg#: 131139)

$$$$ $425.0 $$$$ DryWasher (4/17/05; 08:39:09MT - msg#: 131268)

$$$$ $423.5 $$$$ Liberty Head (4/14/05; 20:11:28MT - msg#: 131189)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Federal_Reserves (4/13/05; 16:59:33MT - msg#: 131158)

$$$$ $417.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (4/16/05; 22:57:23MT - msg#: 131258)

$$$$ $415.5 $$$$ mackattack (4/17/05; 00:46:36MT - msg#: 131260)


Ok -- Time to get THINKING again about the ENTRY QUESTION, and the PRICE of GOLD at SETTLEMENT on Friday ! ONLY three more "Trading Days" to go, as the ENTRY DEADLINE is Wednesday midnight in Denver.


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) June 2005 Gold Contract (GCM5) on the date of Friday, April 22, 2005.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $444.4)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $444.4 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Wednesday, April 20, 2005.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph, or more, discussing
"THE Nightmare American Inflation QUESTION". <===== NOTE !!!

PS: Thanks Sir Dry Washer !
(The Wiz got lazy and thought that all knew the QUESTION !)

ToolieHenri#1312714/17/05; 09:57:18

Maybe there would be political advantages to it. The Yuan would then, in a sense be a floating currency, floating with gold. Wouldn't that take some of the bite out of the us argument that that the dollar peg is causing the trade deficit? Don't like the value of the Yuan -- blame that fellow in the mirror.

It seems also that a temporary gold peg would curb expectations of the dollars waiting around for a Yuan revaluation as it is in the interest of the US to keep the POG down. Wouldn't it make sense that a portion of the hot money that China is trying to deal with would flow into gold – given equal returns wouldn't you prefer to hold gold over yuan?

I am also looking forward to the thoughts others on this subject.

Back to tillin’ the garden -- $450 before the "early girls" are ripe.

NedLower USD?#1312724/17/05; 10:11:23

After I read Sundeck's 131237 (trade deficits) and Mikal's 131255 and often hearing calls from the US for China to raise the value of the yuan wouldn't it be quicker, simpler and more effective (more well-rounded because of huge deficit with all major trading partners) for the US to simply revalue its currency downwards?
GoldiloxCAFTA Riots Covered Up?#1312734/17/05; 10:14:43


More from the coffee soaked Houston Bureau: "How come we aren't hearing about the riots in Central and South America over CAFTA? And why is it that Guatemalan Indians, who live in virtual isolation from media sources, have enough sense to protest CAFTA? "

Of course you won't hear much about CAFTA riots, because it's not in the interest of the powers that be to discuss more jobjacking and the continuing effort to cut your standard of living in order to keep their corporate interests out of bankruptcy.


No, we're likely to get a lot more stories about burying the Pope or Grace Kelly's hubby. Not that they aren't newsworthy, but the media will kill everything else to get ratings from a known entity.

GoldiloxYuan-Dollar revaluation#1312744/17/05; 10:35:14

@ Ned,

The US $ is not a fixed currency, thus its method of devaluation is the "waterfall" we see in the DX, but teh Chinese fix takes it along for the ride.

Personally, I think the Chinse are wary about what happened to the Argentine Peso when it was depegged from the dollar. The Forex markets then ate them for lunch.

GoldiloxEU Crumbling?#1312754/17/05; 10:42:06


While all this is going on, the "business as usual" in Europe is threatened by France, which may turn down complete adoption of the Euro. The president of France did a "pimp the EU constitution" speech last night that got poor reviews. That in turn has led to something of a crisis because, as one very savvy market and precious metals watcher put it, the EU is nothing more than a band of 15 basically bankrupt countries.... or something to that effect. So put this on your watch screen - as the currency is debated, the US dollar has been rising by default.


George's take on the dollar rebound may not be all that wacky. Of course, the Wall St. shills will never dig this deep. "Bugger thy neighbor's currency" is still an active participation sport.

Global price deflation based on massive slowdowns is still a real option, with FED helicopters as the only monetary tool to battle it. Does anyone think they can actively swing the pendulum without its natural reaction? Probably not likely.

Gandalf the WhiteLook Sir Smeagol !! <;-)#1312764/17/05; 11:49:22

There were at least FIVE beautiful FISHING HOLES on the US$ chart on Friday !!
We shall see today at 17:00+ Denver time, which way the "water" will be flowing.
Let me suggest that you should also look near the outlet of each FISHING HOLE for some YELLOW !!

968Statement by Mr. Breton, French Minister of Economy, Finance and Industry#1312774/17/05; 13:13:42

International Monetary and Financial Committee
Eleventh Meeting April 16, 2005

"First, consider the rising price of oil: while the effects of the oil shock are less severe now than they once were, they remain significant in industrial countries and arguably even more substantial in the nonoil emerging and developing countries. Second, consider the global
macroeconomic imbalances which, in a worst case scenario, could lead to disorderly exchange rate fluctuations and an abrupt upturn in interest rates, which today are exceptionally low."

"However, as various economic studies have shown, structural reforms in the EU can only make a marginal contribution to overcoming global imbalances. The euro area's external position is, in fact, nearly in balance. The low growth in Europe in recent years cannot be held responsible for the imbalances across the Atlantic."

"The Fund's role in crisis resolution implies that its structure and financial leadership must be strengthened. In light of the steadily increasing risks and risk concentration, France has voiced its support for a number of additional policies: strengthened risk management, in
order to gauge the likely impact of default in the event of exceptional access, while further strengthening the IMF's reserves; increasing IMF resources; and ensuring that debtors show due regard for the IMF's preferred creditor status. For these same reasons, France is opposed
to measures that might weaken the financial position of the Fund, such as gold sales to finance debt forgiveness or any waiver of claims not based on objective debt sustainability criteria, except as a last resort after all other solutions and contributions have been attempted, and if financed by bilateral contributions in order to neutralize the cost to the IMF."
France opposes to IMF goldsales.

968Press Conference IMF#1312784/17/05; 13:39:27

Press Conference on the Spring 2005 Meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee with Gordon Brown, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer and Chairman of the IMFC, and Rodrigo de Rato, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund
April 16, 2005
Washington, DC

"MR. BROWN:.....We discussed the continuing shift in oil prices....." ???????????????????????????

"QUESTION: It is suggested that, for determining quotas, it should be on the basis of purchasing power parity. I was wondering how you do that. Secondly, generally one thinks of bankers as very prosperous people, but these days you will find that the developing countries that are very poor have become the bankers of the United States. I was wondering do you think this will change in the not too distant future, and what are the dangers in this.

MR. DE RATO: Referring to the bankers, can you repeat it, if you do not mind? I did not understand.

QUESTION: I was saying that generally bankers are thought of as being very prosperous people. What we find now, the developing countries that are very poor have become the bankers of the United States.

MR. DE RATO: First of all, regarding quotas, we believe that this is a debate that the shareholders should face and I think there is a great consensus that this should be so. We are in the middle of the 13th quota review so it is a formal moment to do it. In that respect, I do not think this is an issue that can be solved technically. I do not think this is a technical issue; I think this is a political issue that demands countries to recognize the new, maybe the new circumstances of other countries regarding their weight in the world economy, and also the fact that maybe in the past the so-called basic quotas have been eroded and that that is not to the benefit of, for instance, the African countries. I have to say that in today's discussion, it appears to be a growing consensus and I hope that that will be so, so that we could bring this issue forward. That, of course, depends totally on the will of the member countries.

Regarding the question of savings and investment in the world, it is true we are seeing very important flows of savings going from one part of the world to another, which of course makes sense, at the end people saving in countries and investing in those countries and others. From our point of view, it is important that there is a better balance in that direction, in two senses. One, that important countries like the United States increase its domestic savings, and we believe that is part of better management of the world economy; and second, that in the medium term we see more investment in developing countries, and that is certainly true and is already happening in very important countries like China, but we see the need to increase investment in some of the countries in Asia and in other parts of the world. That, of course, will probably take us to maybe a more logical flow of things and will be that countries with clear aging populations save and invest, and countries with development needs invest even more."

"QUESTION: I would like to know after these meetings how is your feeling, Mr. de Rato, in relationship with the next several months about imbalances. I mean, there is some compromise in reducing in a new policy relationship with imbalances, and the second question is the President from Argentina just said in Munich that there is life after the IMF, a very good life. It seems to be an answer about a matter of holdouts. Could you elaborate something about this?

MR. DE RATO: Well, first of all, in the first part of the question, certainly I think the IMFC is a good formal fora for discussion among countries on different policies, but also especially on global issues, and I think today the discussions both in the meeting and at lunch were extremely important in that respect. As I had the chance of saying I think Thursday but I will stress it again, I think the analysis that the IMF is doing regarding the global imbalances is coincident with what different countries are saying and in that respect I do not see any challenges in the things we are saying regarding the increase of savings in the United States, with also change in budgetary policy, what we are saying also regarding structural reforms in Europe and Japan to make them more active players in the world growth, and the need for Asian countries to have more flexible exchange rates. I think that there is a consensus that those issues are important for the world and are important for the countries themselves.

As you rightly point out, the question of implementation is now what is needed, and that is a very important part of governments. So, now it is a question of governments to put forward not only debt strategies-many of them have already done so-but to have timetables and clear compromises to respond to their own analyses of the circumstances.

And to the second question, allow me to tell you that I learned a long time ago, in my previous life, that one should never make speeches about declarations of other people.

QUESTION: The issue of selling part of the IMF's gold reserves seems to have disappeared from the G-7 communiqué. Why has no progress been made on this, and can we actually expect any real progress to be made when the world leaders meet at Gleneagles?

MR. BROWN: I do not think it is true to say at all that it has disappeared. I think the G-7 communiqué refers to the role of the IMF in debt relief. The communiqué from the IMFC which I had just been talking about refers to further discussion with shareholders, including the possible use of the IMF's resources, and that we expect proposals by the time of our next meeting. We have, after all, been discussing the report today by the Managing Director on the issue of gold and other resources of the International Monetary Fund.

But the general issue is how can we finance the next stage of multilateral debt relief, what are the mechanisms by which we can deal with the debts that are owed to the IMF and the debts that are owed to the African Development Bank and that debts that are owed to the World Bank. I believe we making considerable progress now on these issues. It is now recognized, I think for the first time as a result of these meetings that more money will have to be available. It is now recognized that we will have to look at innovative forms of financing for the longer term and if you look at the communiqué here, we deal with the issue of the International Finance Facility, the pilot the International Finance Facility for Immunization. We talk about global taxes which could also finance the International Finance Facility and we welcome the joint IMF-World Bank note outlining progress that has been made. There is no doubt now that more resources are going to be needed and the challenge will be at the Gleneagles summit and then at the UN special summit for specific sums in addition to what has already been promised to be made available.

Now at the same time, over the last year, there has been considerable progress on countries announcing that they are moving to 0.7 percent for development aid, and I think that is another aspect of the change in atmosphere that has got to be taken into account."

"QUESTION: Just a couple of questions for Mr. Brown. Do the rest of the G-7 and do the IMFC agree with the U.S. call that action is needed on China's currency now, not next week or next month but now. Secondly, Chancellor Snow was saying today that the G-7 is coming around to the U.S. view that what is needed on debt relief is cancellation rather than servicing the debt, paying for the service of the debt. Is that now the consensus view at the G-7?

MR. BROWN: On China, I think there are two references to exchange rate flexibility in our communiqué. Greater exchange rate flexibility is appropriate, supported by continued financial sector reform in emerging Asia, and then we come back to this in the context of inflation. In countries receiving strong capital flows, exchange rate flexibility would facilitate monetary management. So these issues are being discussed, becoming aired, but of course a decision on that matter, as everybody will tell you, is a matter for the Chinese themselves."

"QUESTION: One of the things that strikes one about the IMF meetings generally is that there is a lot of talk about China but very little visible presence of Chinese representatives. Of course, at the G-7 the presence of the Chinese delegation was actually downgraded. Could you explain how that might be remedied in the future?

MR. BROWN: I do not think either of these observations are correct. China plays a very prominent role in the meetings as we found today on all the issues we have been talking about, including the ones we just talked about on exchange rates. So China plays a very big role in the discussions at the meeting and I think they contributed on every aspect of the meeting today, including the issues of debt relief and help for the poorest countries in Africa and Asia.

As far as the presence of China at the G-7, you will probably know that at the last meeting of the G-7 in London, we had, first of all, a lunch with the Chinese representatives. We also had a joint meeting with South Africa, China, Brazil, and India, at which the Chinese were also present. You will see in future meetings that are scheduled for the G-7 that is exactly what is going to happen. So, I do not accept that there has been any downgrading, either, of the Chinese presence or the invitations that have gone to the Chinese to be present at these discussions. In fact, it has been stepped up over the last few months."
Randy, what are your thoughts on this IMF-meeting ?

968Statement by His Excellency, Sultan Bin Nasser Al-Suwaidi, Governor of the United Arab Emirates Central Bank#1312794/17/05; 13:56:51

Statement by His Excellency, Sultan Bin Nasser Al-Suwaidi
Governor of the United Arab Emirates Central Bank
On behalf of Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Maldives, Oman, Qatar, Syrian Arab Republic, United Arab Emirates, Republic of Yemen
[note from 968 : he is there on behalf of practicly the whole Middle East, but NOT on behalf of Saudi Arabia]

"In spite of these favorable trends, a number of factors lead us to believe that the down-side risks to the outlook appear to be on the rise since our last meeting six months ago. These risks are, for the most part, emanating basically from the twin deficits of the United States and the imbalances in growth between regions. In the United States, the current account deficit continues to increase and could well reach 6 percent of GDP by the end of this year, and is not expected to decline anytime in the near future. The high budget deficit is also a concern. The fact that the sizable budget and current account deficits have existed for some time without contributing to any crises could well render policy makers, and possibly
regulators, more complacent. These high deficits could have serious global ramifications on the real and financial sectors.
As we have repeatedly noted in past years, it would be a mistake to argue, as many do, that the U.S. current account deficit is primarily a concern for the country's policy makers only. The deficit should be viewed from a global perspective and not only as a homegrown problem. An abrupt depreciation of the U.S. dollar forced by the markets could be disruptive and very damaging to the world economy. Interest rates could rise sharply thereby
slowing down the global economy and creating difficulties for emerging market finances, asset prices could descend from their lofty levels further aggravating the economic
slowdown. This chain of events could be self-reinforcing and easily and quickly transmitted to the global economy."

"This coordinating and proactive role could be an integral aspect of the Fund's medium-term strategy. The current situation cannot last forever. Creditors of the United States, particularly if the dollar continues to depreciate, may well demand higher interest rates. We are hopeful that the membership will attach high priority to this issue."

"The rather long period when the Federal Reserve pursued an overly accommodative monetary stance to combat a possible deflation and avoid the recessionary conditions, that were evident some three years ago, coupled with the stimulus provided by budgetary policy, may have been appropriate at that time but are not without adverse consequences."

"National savings, which are historically low, may begin to rise and the economic slowdown may set in the short run. To be sure, an increase in household savings will play a role in reducing the current account deficit."

"The transition towards a more neutral monetary policy stance began some ten months ago when the Federal Reserve initiated a cycle of periodic tightening. The fear at the time was that this transition to higher interest rates would have an adverse impact particularly on emerging market capital flows and debt sustainability. Fortunately, so far, the transition has been proceeding relatively smoothly. However, the cycle of rate increases has not been
completed yet and the risks to financial stability and growth are still high, particularly if inflationary pressures lead the U.S. monetary authorities to increase interest rates more sharply than is implied by the "measured pace" approach. The budget deficit would further add to price pressures. While the accommodative monetary policy is being tightened, the budget deficit continues to be a source of concern and could add to interest rate pressures.
The plan to cut in half the U.S. budget deficit in the next five years is neither sufficient nor credible. What is needed in the United States is a policy mix directed at increasing both household and public savings. While such policies may contribute to an initial drag on economic activity, they are an important input in promoting policy credibility and long-run growth prospects both globally and for the United States."

"The option of using the Fund's gold holdings could be
contemplated in case of insufficient bilateral contributions to reach the envisaged debt relief levels, after a careful assessment of the impact of the procedure on the Fund's financial position."
A Middle East-view on things...

SmeagolMr.Brown, how about you put YOUR money where your mouth is, precious?#1312804/17/05; 14:01:09

(Snipped from Ssir 968's post below):

"It is now recognized that we will have to look at innovative forms of financing for the longer term and if you look at the communiqué here, we deal with the issue of the International Finance Facility, the pilot the International Finance Facility for Immunization. We talk about global taxes which could also finance the International Finance Facility and we welcome the joint IMF-World Bank note outlining progress that has been made. There is no doubt now that more resources are going to be needed and the challenge will be at the Gleneagles summit and then at the UN special summit for specific sums in addition to what has already been promised to be made available. " - Mr.Brown

"Innovative forms of financing..."
"International Finance Facility for Immunization..." (againsst what, precious?)
"Global taxes that could be used..."
"more resources are going to be needed..."

sss...this is all orc-talk of the highesst order, in our NOT-sso-humble opinion.

"Set up, like a bowling pin
Knocked down, it gets to wearin' thin
They just won't let you be"
- The Grateful Dead


SmeagolFree shipping?#1312824/17/05; 14:37:06

That should make Ssir R. Powell very happy! (grin)


TopazL-O-N-G Bond.#1312834/17/05; 14:52:52

Had the opportunity of attending a Bette Midler Show here in Sydney over the weekend ...and what a privilege it was.

An exquisite blend of "old-favourite" characters, tunes ...and newly released "covers", coupled with comedic and musical "local-content" ...was truly a performance to behold.
Following hot on the heels of icons Cher and Neil Diamond, Sydney has really have been "blessed" this (local) Autumn ...Cher was, well ...Age-defiantly, Glamourously Cher ...Neil was Simmeringly, Brilliantly Neil ...but Bette, Bette was, as she herself puts it "Queen of the World!"

So, all this "olde-USAGolde" can traipse around the Globe woowing audiences and filling Venues ...big deal you say!!
Could we be expecting to see Britney, Jessica and Eminem doing the same in 30 Years?
In all probability NOT however...
..."future perceptions" draw much more from "past performance" than "present realities" we find today a confidence in USBonds that defies "current logic"

A bankrupt Tycoon has a much brighter future than does say a bankrupt ditch-digger.

An interesting week ahead to be sure to the Salt-Mines.

adminSmeagol#1312844/17/05; 15:53:11

Thanks, you're right. That ad should announce free shipping on gold orders only. It's back to the drawing boards on the ad.

Sorry all you silver bugs.

R PowellSmeagol#1312854/17/05; 16:05:39

Free shipping has always been on my list of favorite things....

When the dog bites
When the bee stings
I simply remember my favorite things
**** like free shippings
And then I don't feel so bad....

R PowellAdmin...!!!#1312864/17/05; 16:11:08

Hey, that's not at all fair. Isn't that discriminatory or in violation of the post Bretton Woods metals bias laws?
And here I was so excited and could hardly wait for Monday morning to order a few more tons of silver. I find the 100 ounce paving bricks are the easiest to work with. But, without free shipping.....Oh well, guess I'll just buy another Porshe instead. Silver colored, of course.

R PowellFeeling sad again#13128704/17/05; 16:18:46

Sometimes silver is like Rodney Dangerfield
Clink!@ R Powell#13128804/17/05; 17:47:58

Like Rodney Dangerfield ? Does that mean overweight or dead ?

Oh. I guess I just added some more disrespect ....

R PowellRodney Dangerfield#13128904/17/05; 18:43:33

Overweight, dead and never got any respect...just like silver. DOW futures on the overnight electronic market are already down 33 points. The volatility index on equities may be warning us of something a little more substantial than normal.

If the French vote undermines the Euro, will the EU be forced to use the old USA buck for normal business transaction if/as the euro loses confidence? Gold for safe haven wealth storage always makes sense but what will Europe use for everyday transactions if the Euro is threatened? I often wonder how much of a free-floating currency's relative value is determined by the simple law of supply and demand?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Introducing our new shipping policy...#13129004/17/05; 18:57:58

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.USAGOLD Market Update, 04-18-05#13129104/17/05; 20:02:40">gold market update

Client Newsletter 04-18-05.

Now posted. . . . .

"Perhaps the reality is that the current crop of problems defy easy answers and short term solutions and all is said and done, that is the real message delivered by last week's stock market plunge. If the down trend gathers momentum in the weeks ahead, 2005 could turn out to be a more harrowing year for investors than most anticipated."

An extensive Short & Sweet for those who like their gold news in bullet form.

And more. . . .

GoldiloxMARKET REVIEW: OIL.COM AND OTHER MUTTERINGS#13129204/17/05; 22:20:05


Given that we just flew into Myrtle Beach with our golf clubs in tow, we probably shouldn't be in the hotel room watching that greasy pickpocket, Larry Kudlow, on CNBC. But alas, such is life...

Andy Kessler was on the show. So was a strategist from J.P.Morgan.

"Pessimism is spreading through Wall St. like a wild fire," shouts Kudlow, rudely interrupting his guest mid-sentence. "I don't get it. The way I see it, things are looking great."

His guests agreed. The strategist said we'd reached a great buying opportunity. Kessler predicted the Dow would stay in a range between 10,000 and 11,000 and then spurt upwards again in 2007, on the back of another tech-driven stock frenzy.

Mr. Market disagrees. Stocks had one of their worst days of the year on Friday. The Dow fell nearly 200 points, handing investors a 381-point loss on the week. The Nasdaq fared even worse, falling 39 points on Friday for a weekly loss of 4.5%. Tech stocks are now down 12.3% this year.


Too funny not to post!

YGMKudlow & Talking Heads.#13129304/17/05; 22:35:46

I wonder if they're watching the blood letting in Asia tonite? Nikkei down 429 @ present. Red ink thruout Asia also. Doesn't portend well for Dow tomorrow...YGM
GoldiloxIt's Not Even Worth Chewing Through the Restraints#13129404/17/05; 22:54:49


And here is where we see the big difference between Doug Noland and me. I would have answered that question by screaming, "What are you? Some kind of brain-damaged halfwit? EVERYTHING is wrong with a little inflation, you silly little twit!" which is, of course, a line I stole from Monty Python. But Mr. Noland, always the classy guy, cooly answers: "There are consequences—and they are not all benign." And it is not even just us! He says that inflation is, "everywhere in the world. It's gone global. It's endemic. It's commodities, home prices, bond prices, stock prices, foreign real estate, emerging bond markets, emerging equity markets, Chinese real estate, for gosh sakes." And it is not going to get better, as "We have very highly liquid competitors now. And we are bidding against them for whatever we want or need." And notice that he is too much of a gentleman to mention that inflation is guaranteed, since all of the world's governments are actively printing whole mountain ranges of money for the bidding war!

He then proceeds to give her a little education about how the economy has been distorted into the malignant monster that it is. He tells her, "When I talk about 'financial arbitrage capitalism', I mean you are what you eat. The economy is how the financial sector lends. So if everything is a spread trade and no one cares about the underlying credit or the underlying economic returns, how could you expect that to work well for the structure of the economy? It can't."

Then, looking at history, Mr. Noland talks about the crash 1929, "When the speculators got hammered and liquidity collapsed, the economy was so distorted that it couldn't function without that speculative liquidity." And this is why the despicable Federal Reserve continues trying to pound money into the system. Will it work? Hahahaha! And while I am busy laughing at the question, Mr. Noland seizes the microphone and says, "It will keep working amazingly well, but only as long as the liquidity keeps flowing." So what is the problem? Well, if you had kept listening and not rudely interrupted by asking the question, you would have learned what the problem is. In Mr. Noland's own words, "It's not sustainable."

-The job numbers surprised Bob Wood of Kaizen Managed Assets, too, and he stopped demanding that I pay back the money I owe him to take a look at the employment numbers and says to me, "The BLS confirms110,000 new jobs, albeit with 179,000 of those jobs the result of the birth/death model! And Kudlow is glowing at how strong the economy and job market are!" So, after adjustment, the March Jobs Data is actually lower by 69,000? Hahahaha! 69,000 jobs were actually lost! Hahahaha!


Interwoven between his slapstick "schtick", the Mogambo hits a number of nails right on the head. Worth the read, even if just to tickle the funny bone.

GoldiloxAsia benchmarks follow U.S. down#13129504/17/05; 23:05:20


TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- Asian benchmarks were sharply lower Monday, beginning the week under the shadow of Friday's U.S. losses which prompted foreign investors to pull funds out of regional markets.

Tokyo stock indexes led declines by midday, pulled down by the additional drag of escalating tensions between Japan and China.

The Nikkei 225 Average 3.3 %, or 369.48 points, at 11,001.21. The broader Topix of all Tokyo Stock Exchange first section issues was down 2.9%, or 33.42 points, at 1,117.25.

Sony Corp. (JP:6758: news, chart, profile) (SNE: news, chart, profile) slipped 3.2% and Advantest (JP:6857: news, chart, profile) (ADTTF: news, chart, profile) dropped 3.9%.

"Today's losses were a reaction to both last week's U.S. equity market weakness, as well as fears about the possible economic impact of tensions with China," said Hiroichi Nishi, equities general manager at Nikko Cordial Securities in Tokyo.

"Foreigners were selling, but domestic investors sold, too, as they couldn't afford to sit on the sidelines as the market dropped," he said.

China is Japan's biggest trading partner. For the past three weeks, anti-Japan demonstrators have protested in Shanghai and other Chinese cities, calling for a boycott of Japanese goods and denouncing Japan's failure to atone for its wartime past.

Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura met his Chinese counterpart Li Zhaoxing in Beijing Sunday, but the meeting ended with no apologies and did little to ease fears.


Hip boots are standard equipment in Asia tonight as the caca hits the proverbial fan!

GoldiloxQuote of the Day#13129604/17/05; 23:20:29


"In bearish times, markets have a way of suddenly taking off in the 'wrong' direction and dragging us along with them, like prisoners on the train to hell... Rallies are likely to be seen by more and more investors as opportunities to sell. That means, they will tend to be short-lived."

– The Spear Report


Looks like these golden parachutes may come in handy soon!

Black BladeAsia Stock Indices In Free Fall#13129704/18/05; 01:27:41

The Nikkei is now down over 400 pts and the trend looks like it will tumble further as the afternoon session picks up. The reason is said to be the China-Japan conflict that threatens to become more heated. However, the recent plunge on Wall Street in spite of falling oil prices has not gone unnoticed. The All Ordinaries in Sydney started off quite a bit lower as well. It should be an "interesting" day and even more so if this trend of lower indices carries over into Euroland trade.

- Black Blade

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.USAGOLD Market Update, 04-18-05#13129804/18/05; 02:15:00">gold market update

Client Newsletter 04-18-05.

Now posted. . . . .

"Perhaps the reality is that the current crop of problems defy easy answers and short term solutions and when all is said and done, that is probably the real message delivered by last week's stock market plunge. If the down trend gathers momentum in the weeks ahead, 2005 could turn out to be a more harrowing year for investors than most anticipated."

An extensive Short & Sweet for those who like their gold news in bullet form.

And more. . . .

Black BladeAust stocks tumble with global slide#13129904/18/05; 02:23:55


THE Australian sharemarket plunged today, shedding more than one per cent as it continued the downward slide suffered by equity markets around the globe. The local indices finished below the 4,000 mark to close at their lowest level since December. Investors had expected a bad day, after Wall Street tumbled on Friday night, along with most other major overseas markets, with Asian markets also tumbling today.

Black Blade: "Interesting Times"

Black BladeNikkei In Free Fall#13130004/18/05; 02:36:45,5936,15007292%255E1702,00.html


JAPANESE share prices plunged 3.80 per cent to a four-month low today as investors fretted over heavy losses on Wall Street and sagging profits at hi-tech firms, along with anti-Japan protests in China, dealers said.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange's benchmark Nikkei-225 index lost 432.25 points to 10,938.44, well below the key 11,000 points support level, the lowest on the key index since December 16 when it closed at 10,924.37.

The broader TOPIX index of all first section shares dropped 41.18 points or 3.58 per cent to 1,109.49.

The tone was massively negative as declines led gains 1,622 to 20 with just six stocks unchanged on very heavy volume of 2.02 billion shares.

Black Blade: More "interesting times" ahead I am sure.

Black BladeGermany deputy finmin Koch-Weser says IMF gold deal unlikely #13130104/18/05; 02:53:11


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - German Deputy Finance Minister Caio Koch-Weser said on Sunday he saw almost no chance a plan to sell International Monetary Fund gold to fund debt relief for the world's poorest nations would be adopted.

"I see no big chances for that anymore," Koch-Weser told Reuters in an interview. He was in Washington for meetings of Group of Seven finance chiefs, the IMF and the World Bank.

Black Blade: I thought the whole idiotic idea was DOA. Gordie Brown is still trying to divert attention away from his stupid investing strategy to sell the Brit peoples Gold (at the low) and buy currencies (at the highs). Smooth move Gordie!

Black BladeFutures point to a rough start on Wall Street after last week's tumble, big drops overseas Monday.#1313024/18/05; 04:33:53


Another sell-off looms

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Stocks looked set to tumble for a fourth straight session Monday as markets overseas fell sharply in reaction to last week's sell-off on Wall Street. In just the last week, investors have grown worried about a slowing economy, whereas before that many were concerned about a possible pickup in inflation -- and the pace of Fed interest rate hikes.

Black Blade: Then again, the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (PWGFM) could just as easily step in and prop up the market.

Black BladeShares fall sharply across Europe #1313034/18/05; 04:53:08


Stocks across Europe have slid sharply after a number of negative factors accentuated the after-effects of Wall Street's Friday falls.

The Frankfurt, Paris and London markets were all down in Monday trading. By 1015 GMT, Germany's Dax was down 2.51% or 108.17 points to 4,204.08, while in Paris the Cac 40 had lost 2.09% or 84.43 points to 3,947.85. In London the FTSE 100 had given up 1.77% or 86.6% to 4,805, further hit by investor concern that demand had peaked for steel giant Corus, whose shares were down 3.96%.

Black Blade: Interesting. Meanwhile US futures are coming off the lows - looks like the President's Working Group on Financial markets is running hard and fast this morning prior to the open on Wall Street. Lotta "dressing up" to do for the Lemmings.

TopazDow etc.#1313044/18/05; 06:51:45

Chart shows 5 day Dow and reflects the early close Fri where it appears curbs may have caused them to shut up shop 9mins early.
Could go either way today, if we don't get a bid at the open, 9862 is the first skittle to fall. If we do, a 300 up day should pave the way for an Earnings Season rally to 11K plus...particularly if Oil keeps tracking lower.

With all hands to the pumps, I'd be erring on the side of the latter.

GoldiloxQuote of the day - msg#: 131296#1313054/18/05; 09:14:10 snip:

"In bearish times, markets have a way of suddenly taking off in the 'wrong' direction and dragging us along with them, like prisoners on the train to hell... Rallies are likely to be seen by more and more investors as opportunities to sell. That means, they will tend to be short-lived."

– The Spear Report


I'll post again (from yesterday) as CNBC just reported that each "effort at recovery" brings a new wave of sellers this morning.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Introducing our new shipping policy...#1313064/18/05; 09:39:56

GoldiloxDX breaks through 84 - DOW flirts with 10K once again#1313074/18/05; 10:14:16

From Thursday's high of 85.20, the DX has dropped almost 2% to 83.93.

Gold, not surprisingly, is up under 2% for the two-day period, perhaps coiling in anticipation of the 50th crossing of DOW 10K since it's initial attainment.

Remaining in a range of 9K-11K over about 18 years, the DOW has not been a great performer when REAL inflation is factored in.

Federal_ReservesFED DEBT growth rate#1313084/18/05; 10:41:01


In 2004 the US Gov't increased the national debt almost $600billion in 12 months.

So far this year with 5 1/2 months still remaining nearly 400billion. An even faster rates
than 2004!

9/30/2004$7,379,052,696,330.32 $397,796,454,588.59
9/30/2003$6,783,231,062,743.62 $595,821,633,586.70

These kinds of growth rates are unsustainable, and eventually if continued, will lead to bankruptcy.

968Statement by the Honorable John W. Snow, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury#1313094/18/05; 13:08:48

Statement by the Honorable John W. Snow
U.S. Secretary of the Treasury
International Monetary and Financial Committee Meeting
April 16, 2005
On behalf of the United States of America

"We are not persuaded by arguments for IMF debt relief, and we do not believe market or "off-market" gold sales are necessary or warranted."
Off-market sales ??? Under what circumstances are they necessary, Snowman ???

Cavan ManIMF Gold (IF it still exists)...#1313104/18/05; 13:17:50 needed and will remain in the west.
Gandalf the WhiteHELP !!!#13131104/18/05; 13:33:21

My WATERFALL camera is on the FRITZZZZZ !
CAN anyone find me a "Picture" ?

GoldiloxWaterfall camera (DX chart)#13131204/18/05; 13:37:26


Refresh it a few times in succession and it finally updates. It's been doing that all morning. I used INO to verify that it is accurate when it finally refreshes.

TownCrier968, "Randy, what are your thoughts on this IMF-meeting?"#13131304/18/05; 15:02:01

In two words: Supernaturally murky.

An achievement demonstrating tremendous choreographic skill, for on my life I've seen random acts and accidents that were easier to follow and decipher than the output of that meeting!

Once again there was a lot of calls for higher levels of national/household savings within the U.S. as if that would help work off the problem. From what angle is this savings intended or expected to take shape -- as 401(k)s or IRAs invested in stock- or bond- holding mutual funds, as oversea investments, as real estate or gold ownership, as Treasury debt securities, or as cash savings accounts at the local bank?

Unless things are changing as a result of a groundswell of member revolt, I think the U.S. Treasury effectively exercises influence over the IMFs operations as though it were a mere subsidiary bureau of the Department. However, not being sure of the prevailing wind these days, it is hard for me to begin to get my mind around the implications of Rato's key comments in his report to the IMFC on the potential use of gold in funding debt relief and Millennium Development Goals.

I shall post those comments here for your convenience, as I have not seen them previously cited by anyone else already.

"There was some discussion of modalities whereby the Fund's gold could potentially be used to finance debt relief. It was agreed that any such operation could not be allowed to compromise the Fund's financial strength and integrity, and that it would be preferable not to repeat the off-market gold transactions of 1999-2000, given their adverse impact on the Fund's income position. However, we are far from the necessary support for any agreement on the use of the Fund's gold."

In keeping with the murky theme, I HAD felt that I fully understood the revaluation mechanism that had been employed in the 1999-2000 operation. However, given the statement here regarding an "adverse impact" on the Fund's income position, I find I am suddenly at a loss to reconcile the event as I understood it with the outcome as has here been described.

Putting all that aside, the Treasury's angst toward sales of any kind is telling. But WHAT, exactly, is it telling?? Pure spectulation on my part suggests that the Treasury surely knows the ECB/BIS monetary reserve model built around "free-gold" is the superior and natural next phase to replace the out-moded dollar-reserve model. Thus, I wouldn't put it past the Treasury to be doing everything in its power to revamp its IMF subsidiary into something closer to the ECB model in order to continue to have its piece of the new monetary system pie.

If that hypothesis carries any water, it follows that the Treasury wouldn't want to see the IMF lose any of its preciously all-important gold reserves at this important juncture.

My thoughts only, since you asked.


R PowellGoldilox // Mogambo#13131404/18/05; 15:18:42

Thanks for the mention + link to the Mogambo's weekly rant (post 131294). I often enjoy his humor, which, as you noted, does include a good deal of data. Some of his conclusions may be tainted by his opinion but I've never read any analyst's work that wasn't, other than straight forward USDA sales + exports reports and such. For those of us not familar with the Mogambo, let me reiterate Goldilox's recommendation of his work. It's always good for a chuckle or two. Now then, with two mentions of the Mogambo, you'd think maybe he'd mention us now or then. Well, Mogambo, how about it!! We'll be watching next Friday!

And our markets, it seems like days of old with gold somewhat rangebound and moving only a few bucks per day one way or the other. And that other overweight, seemingly dead white metal that gets no respect, she's just wandering around near or slightly above her 200 day average, seemingly with no particular place to go. One of these days, Alice, one of these days...

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1313154/18/05; 15:46:12">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Monday market excerpts

April 18 (from MarketWatch) -- Gold reclaimed the metals spotlight Monday, rising amid turmoil in global financial markets. After getting hit hard last week, the metals sector gained some support from a fresh downturn in the dollar.

Gold buyers also stepped in as a result of Group of Seven finance ministers taking no decision over the weekend on a proposal to sell off a portion of the International Monetary Fund's gold reserves as a means of providing debt relief for developing countries.

Said Treasury Secretary John Snow: "We are not persuaded by arguments for IMF debt relief, and we do not believe market or 'off market' gold sales are necessary or warranted."

Gold for June delivery added $2.50 to close at $429. The buying in gold was orderly, with the benchmark contract climbing as high as $429.70 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"By managing to hold its own, gold is now building a base to launch a new rally back to the old highs above $450," said market strategist Peter Grandich.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)----

SurvivorThe White Metal#1313164/18/05; 15:46:37

". . . And that other overweight, seemingly dead white metal that gets no respect, she's just wandering around near or slightly above her 200 day average, seemingly with no particular place to go. One of these days, Alice, one of these days..."

No worries, Rich. If the white got valuable it might be tempting to sell. Then what would we do for doorstops? :)

R PowellSurvivor#1313174/18/05; 16:31:48

Doorstops! What a novel idea. And here I've been using the 100 ounce bars as paving and patio bricks. Doorstops, now why didn't I think of that? What next, paperweights?

There is even one analyst who speculates that China might use silver for superconductive electrical transmittion lines. How silly. You'd have string all those bricks together on a cable like threading popcorn with a string for a Christmas tree ornament. Now then, how's that for imagination. What will they think of next...water purification systems?

GoldiloxMonday Market Wrap#13131804/18/05; 17:33:25


If I'm George Bush in the White House, I [or my team] likely know that the current economic situation is dire and I probably didn't need Paul Volcker to write an Op-Ed piece entitled, "On Thin Ice", in the Washington Post to make that point abundantly clear. That's why Alan Greenspan's visits to the White House have become so frequent [they have reportedly quadrupled since the Clinton admin.] - it's all high level crisis management.


Some might say that like Scalia, GS spends more time with the current admin because they are his "friends", but in years of watching financial reporting, I have never seen the FED governors and chairman stop all financial news every time they cough as has been happening in the last four years.

Either we're in financial crisis territory, or the media feels it necessary to convince us so. You be the judge.

slingshot Silver usage#13131904/18/05; 17:39:58;link57925

Samsung launches first-of-a-kind Silver Nano technology-embedded home appliances in Middle East.

China next?

Dollar Bill.,.#13132004/18/05; 17:58:39

I was thinking that in a perfect world, the forum would have catagories like.......hall of fame days, weeks, and months.
There are days months and weeks that are just exemplary.

Gandalf the WhiteThanks Sir Goldilox for that US$ chart !!#13132104/18/05; 19:37:51

84.0 attempting to hold, BUT no way Jose !!

Gandalf the WhiteThe "KING of the HILL" report ! <;-)#13132204/18/05; 20:06:57

INO says:
METALS: June COMEX gold futures closed up $2.50 at $429.00
today. Prices closed near the session high today on a slump
in the U.S. dollar versus the other major currencies today.
Prices are back in the middle of a three-week-old trading
range on the daily bar chart.
and with an entry of:
$$$$ $428.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (4/17/05; 04:54:11MT - msg#: 131263)
Sir HOOSIER GOLDBUG is now "KING of the HILL" !!


IS everyone awaiting the next two days of COMEX action before entering, OR still thinking about the QUESTION ?

POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 4/18/05, MONDAY at 20:00 Denver time

BASIS of Question -- (In keeping with the spirit of the German 20 mark coin and referring to the Nightmare German Inflation (NGI) report as seen at the above LINK for educational purposes.) --

The QUESTION -- (Put on your THINKING HATS !)
Is a Nightmare American Inflation (NAI) a possibility as America may have passed the point of no return. SOOO, What could be the price of gold at the NAI's PEAK and WHY ?" in 30 words or more.

Entries listed in order of decending values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (4/13/05; 18:05:18MT - msg#: 131160)

$$$$ $474.1 $$$$ Beamer (4/17/05; 01:40:45MT - msg#: 131261)

$$$$ $462.0 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (4/14/05; 09:16:26MT - msg#: 131173)

$$$$ $451.2 $$$$ mikal (4/14/05; 23:59:56MT - msg#: 131195)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Goldilox (4/12/05; 23:58:41MT - msg#: 131136)

$$$$ $442.1 $$$$ Henri (4/13/05; 11:07:18MT - msg#: 131147)

$$$$ $439.9 $$$$ PNB (4/17/05; 04:17:48MT - msg#: 131262)

$$$$ $438.5 $$$$ Bulldog (4/14/05; 12:50:53MT - msg#: 131178)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ OvS (4/16/05; 14:41:41MT - msg#: 131248)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ commish (4/12/05; 22:46:35MT - msg#: 131135)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ Rustee (4/13/05; 09:58:16MT - msg#: 131144)

$$$$ $434.6 $$$$ arbyh (4/17/05; 07:59:44MT - msg#: 131267)

$$$$ $434.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (4/13/05; 09:58:54MT - msg#: 131145)

$$$$ $432.1 $$$$ Smeagol (4/13/05; 17:20:02MT - msg#: 131159)

$$$$ $430.5 $$$$ jimbojim39 (4/17/05; 08:45:42MT - msg#: 131269)

$$$$ $428.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (4/17/05; 04:54:11MT - msg#: 131263)

$$$$ $428.7 $$$$ slingshot (4/15/05; 06:16:47MT - msg#: 131196)

$$$$ $427.5 $$$$ 2023 (4/13/05; 07:47:34MT - msg#: 131141)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (4/13/05; 03:16:49MT - msg#: 131139)

$$$$ $425.0 $$$$ DryWasher (4/17/05; 08:39:09MT - msg#: 131268)

$$$$ $423.5 $$$$ Liberty Head (4/14/05; 20:11:28MT - msg#: 131189)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Federal_Reserves (4/13/05; 16:59:33MT - msg#: 131158)

$$$$ $417.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (4/16/05; 22:57:23MT - msg#: 131258)

$$$$ $415.5 $$$$ mackattack (4/17/05; 00:46:36MT - msg#: 131260)


Ok -- Time to get THINKING again about the ENTRY QUESTION, and the PRICE of GOLD at SETTLEMENT on Friday ! ONLY three more "Trading Days" to go, as the ENTRY DEADLINE is Wednesday midnight in Denver.


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) June 2005 Gold Contract (GCM5) on the date of Friday, April 22, 2005.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $444.4)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $444.4 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Wednesday, April 20, 2005.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph, or more, discussing
"THE Nightmare American Inflation QUESTION". <===== NOTE !!!

Gandalf the White$$$$ $433.3 $$$$#13132404/18/05; 20:40:44

First -- I certainly HOPE that we will NOT have a "NAI", perhaps only a "BAD Dream" ! BUT, before I am pushing up posies, IMHO, the POG will be greater than five times what it is today ! Of course the US$ will be toast and really worth less than 2/3's of what it is today too.

SmeagolIt's about time! #13132504/18/05; 20:54:36

We jusst HAS to post the whole thing ("borrowed" from a neighboring Kasstle):

Law and Order – Special Business Unit (SBU).

By Adrian Burridge
April 18, 2005

I hear there is going to be a new Law and Order TV show.
It will be called Law and Order - Special Business Unit (SBU).

Each week viewers will watch prosecutors go after white collar criminals.

Some potential episodes

1. Investor puts money into mutual fund. Wall Street steals it. Instead of interviews held at Rikers Island - prosecutors will conduct hard hitting interviews in a brand new Caribbean Island each week.

2. Wall Street criminal faces trial. Jurors can't understand the crime. Mistrial declared.

3. Wall Street underwriter issues knowlingly fraudulent prospectus. Positive research issued. Ratings agency refuses to downgrade. Congress holds hearings. Wall Street criminal gets off by "donating" some money to his local congressman.

4. Prosecutors hold hard hitting debates about whether to fine Wall Street criminal 1/100th of his proceeds or 1/1000th of his proceeds. Prosecutor uses prosecutorial discretion. Wall Street criminal gets off.

5. Instead of cross streets at the bottom of every new location, the TV will show the offices of that week's firm and their Westchester mansions. Their Florida and Texan mansions are of course protected from bankruptcy courts.

6. Wall street criminal conducts fraud. Justice department and prosecutors can't understand the crime. Result: Hung Jury.

7. Cops are trained to follow the money. Cops get confused when they realize the bank is skimming money from the underwriting, the loan,
the mutual fund, the transaction, kickbacks to the pension, getting paid to issue research and on and on it goes. Cop decides it would be easier to take his own kickback then continue investigating.

8. Wall street criminal trades on inside information. Rest of the hour spent watching lawyers debate whether anyone was really hurt.

9. Wall street sells three times as much silver as physical supply exists. Wall Street spends their days writing on the black board like Bart Simpson does "If I can't deliver I will go to jail".

10. Three words. Derivatives, Derivatives, Derivatives. The endless shots of computer screens alone scream ratings winner : ).

Buy physical gold to protect yourself from Wall Street malfeasance.


Gonlyold$$$$434.0$$$$#13132604/18/05; 21:33:56

Is a Nightmare American Inflation (NAI) a possibility as America may have passed the point of no return?

No, America has not passed the NAI point of no return. Haven't you noticed that TPTB are regulating gold betseen $420 and $450? This regulation will continue until they are ready to enact the complete digital money system. For that they are waiting for the last American to give up cash and go completely credit (digital). When that last person does that, they (we) we will have their cashless society and there will be a claming down of the monetary system as everyone, including the subordinate PTB's, will then be in subjection to Master TPTB.

What could be the price of gold at the NAI's PEAK and WHY ?

This assumes that there will be a NAI peak with regards to FRN's. Since I believe that there will be no FRN or gold related peak, this is a moot question. However, contrary to my statement, I do believe that there may be a time when an NAI peak with regards to water, food, and shelter will occur.

mackattackDont forget the episode about the gold mining sector#13132704/18/05; 21:54:00

Ever notice how everyone who owns gold stocks is underwater but we have to listen to idiots like roulston tell us what a great year we had?Or Grandich's endless tax loss selling?Buy physical gold, stocks are going to their true the whole market will tank and the gold sector being by far the worst performing and most corrupt will be going with it.In the gold sector episode they find out about endless dilution and shorting all by the insiders themselves.
Sundeck$$$$$$$$440.0$$$$$$$#1313284/18/05; 22:48:39

Missed you this time, Sir Topaz!

The question...

"Is a Nightmare American Inflation (NAI) a possibility as America may have passed the point of no return. Sooo, What could be the price of gold at the NAI's PEAK and WHY?"

So Gandalf, that is the question...four questions, in fact…

1. Is an NAI a possibility? Yes. It is definitely possible, and its likelihood may depend largely upon how the FED and the rest of the world (ROW) respond as events unfold.

2. May America have passed the point of no return? Yes. They may, but it is by no means certain that they have, because the system is adaptive and some courses of action may lead to an NAI while others may lead to its financial opposite; a Nightmare American Deflation (NAD). It's the elusive middle-ground where Sir Al and Sir Ben (heir apparent?) will seek to tread…

3. What could be the price of gold at the NAI's peak? Well, "How long is a piece of string?" as the erudite man-in-the-street is want to ask… Come on, Sir Gandalf, you know that, in $US terms, the price of gold will depend upon how greatly the $US money supply is "inflated", relative to the goods and services that it is chasing (and at what speed) at home (and abroad as well - while-ever it remains the World's reserve currency), with a positive (or negative) premium depending on the amount of mania in the inflationary response (together with the supply-uncertainty of gold, and a dozen other factors that contribute to the unpredictability in this complex non-linear system). I suggest that $4500 per ounce is not unreasonable, as this (10:1 variation from present) was the approximate change in price of my house from 1974 to 1981 during the last major inflationary period of the ‘70s…but, I suspect that will be a low-guess on the maximum price in $US…

4. Why? This is the difficult question...
Many "human groupings" in the USA society are spending beyond their means…Government, Business, Families and Individuals. (Hell, it's not America's fault…any arbitrary group of people dumped into the American Situation and allowed to evolve, would turn out something the same. So please don't think that I "have it in" for Americans…I don't.) Borrow and spend, borrow and spend, has been the driver of the American economy for about two generations now…aptly entitled the "shop ‘till you drop" consumer-society…and as goes the "self" in America, so goes America's larger social groupings right up to the Federal Government itself. That is how American "freedom" is perceived. And that is how the "democratic" process responds to that perception. The notion of American Freedom, for many Americans, has evolved into a mandate for selfishness…individual selfishness right up to national selfishness…"expediency for self gain" as opposed to "honesty and truth for the good of all" – that is what the "American Way" appears to have become. Strong words, aren't they…and unpopular too; but Popularity has no seat at the table where Truth is carved out. New truths always begin in a single mind and they grow (or die) from there…

But I digress…

Given that America is a consumer-society, where does a lot of the money that is spent on consumption come from? From the savings of others: mostly non-Americans (a term that is rapidly becoming synonymous with "un-Americans"); that is, those people overseas, for whom America has for so long been some sort of "role-model"; not without good cause, perhaps, but not uniquely so…and certainly not so in perpetuity.

Suppose what would happen if this money stopped being available to be spent on consumption? $2B per day suddenly is not available to government, to business, to families and to individuals.

A simple question, but there is no simple answer… Why? Because human systems are ACTIVE systems, not PASSIVE systems…they can and do respond to change in different ways; and the response to the big "credit cut-off" – the so-called "credit-crunch" - is effectively infinite in its variety. Let's consider a few crude possibilities:

Option 1. The rough-and-tough all-American option: "Hell…let's do without the dough!". This is the "real-cold turkey" on the buck-jumper, roll-‘em-in-the-dirt option. Sound like the sort of thing that the folks on 5th Avenue would like for a change? How pleased they would be to feel the earth beneath their (unshod) feet, and to have the vibrant smell of the (rotting) city wafted to their discerning nostrils. Let's see…business failures, unemployment, falling house prices, loan defaults, credit card defaults, bankruptcies galore, Hooverville revisited…in a word DEPRESSION! Prices of assets, in dollar-terms, fall. Price of dollars, in asset terms, rises. "No-one had any money!" as my father said of the last Great Depression. Under these conditions is gold seen as just another asset, or as a dollar-surrogate? Well, it has never been seen as "just another asset" in the past. My guess is that price of gold will rise in asset terms.

Option 2. Increase interest rates to entice back the lenders: the "Greenspan Velvet Glove!" option. A delicate move for the deft operator! The interest rates needed to entice plentiful money back in may exceed the rates for which the economy can perform satisfactorily. All the time, the confidence of the external investor must be maintained. All the time the debt-laden American must be monitored for signs of stress. Move too slow and the money won't come. Move too fast and the economy may be stopped dead in its tracks, in which case the plentiful money may depart more rapidly than it arrived. Clearly a job for a Master-player! Price of gold? Dunno.

Option 3. The "Aw hell! Let's just print the stinkin’ money and go on spendin’!" The "Bernanke Special" option. Another all-American favourite, but with somewhat different consequences from the "Cold Turkey" option. As the un-American hoards wind back their generosity, they may, in addition, also seek to liquidate some of their accumulated American assets (treasuries) – the audacity of those swine! No matter; the FED will monetise all of the liquidating un-American's assets. It will also make up the difference (create new credit in place of that fine new lending opportunity forgone by the foreigners) by encouraging the government to expand its spending, for large "public works" and to replace expenditure by some of the incipient bankrupt companies (who can no longer successfully issue bonds to foreigners to raise funds to keep themselves viable). But how to get dollars into the hands of Joe and Joanne Sixpack? No worries mate! Set-up "government lending institutions" who can provide low-interest loans to the financially destitute; and to the big-spending credit-card heroes who will be relied-upon to keep the economy rolling. The primary lender in this suite of new GSEs will be the Bernanke Federal Helicopter Fund (affectionately knick-named "Chopper Ben" for its ability to cut through red tape and ensure that funds are made available to anyone, with any credit-rating, for any reason and by any means known.) Life will go on much the same except that all available super-computers will be commandeered by the state to calculate the number of dollars needed to send a FedEx parcel to the next block down the street. In a word…HYPER-INFLATION or, as you may say, an NAI! Price of gold, you ask? Heh, heh, heh…

Oh…I forgot to talk about "derivatives"…those wonderful financial "inventions" that "help to stabilise the financial system" by making money for the writers and the intermediaries (in benign times) at the expense of real production in the economy…the great, big, over-the-counter casino in Wall Street and elsewhere, with so many games to play and of which Buffett spoke so highly…will they save the day? When you are hungry next time, ask which you would rather have…a bag of potatoes or an option to acquire a bag of potatoes that may not exist?

Just in case I may have convinced any of you that I have an inkling of how things are going to unfold…I don't! Neither, I believe, does anyone else! The global financial system is large, complex, non-linear and full of instabilities… many of which are not even identified, let alone understood. We can't even design a reliable kink-free garden hose…how can we hope to design a kink-free financial system?

Not to worry… The universe is full of instabilities that are not understood and life goes on...


Felix the Cat$$$$ $431.0 $$$$#1313294/19/05; 01:02:06

For this question, I have tried to list out the possible deviations of POG running at the moments of inflation and deflation. After I summarized that, I got a simple formula: Inflation = $¡õ(leading currencies) = POG¡ô
And the best method to depress the inflation is to increase the interest rate. Now, we are passing through the increasing interest rate period, that means the inflation is getting been serious and the POG is increasing too. Give me a beer@.@!

TopazOil.#1313304/19/05; 02:14:43

The little contango Bubble we've seen in Oil Futures took a bit of a hit yesterday and MAY see POO resuming it's steady decline as the week wears on...good for SM's? ...we'll see.
Sundeck:- noted...Good Answer(s);-)

BoilermakerGerman Gold #1313314/19/05; 05:13:39

"FRANKFURT, April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. investors holding gold-backed bonds issued by the German government in the 1920s are suing for $7.853 billion in compensation, a bondholder delegation said on Tuesday."

The amount noted in the article didn't refer to a specific quantity of gold but if the suit is based upon the current value of gold then it represents about 580 tonnes. My take is that the bondholders will continue to get stifffed as they have been for the past 80 years. There's a strong message here for holders of paper gold.
Hopefully the case will at least get to the discovery phase and shine some light on what happened to this pile of gold and the value of governmental promises made on paper.

SundeckBoilermaker #131331 - Claims against gold-backed German bonds#1313324/19/05; 06:13:36

Good one, Sir Boilermaker...nice to know there are still a few hidden "paper" treasures out there waiting for someone to unearth...even if the legal tussle is likely to be long and difficult.

The thought occurred to me...suppose in 2085 or thereabouts, someone discovers a bunch of old US Treasuries, while rummaging around in the attic. Would they seek to cash them in? Would they be prepared to take expensive legal action to see justice done? I think not. Why? Well they will probably be virtually worthless in the dollars of the day. Now if they were gold-backed securities it might be a different matter!!?

Your post reminded me of a case, perhaps 30 years ago, where someone found a whole lot of pre-revolution Russian government bonds. I can't remember the details, but I do recall that the Soviet government of the day honoured them, not fully, but quite substantially; including interest for the intervening period.


Clink!$$$$$ 435.0 $$$$$#1313334/19/05; 07:14:45

Well, it's always the danger in these contests - the longer you wait, the closer your SWAG is going to be, but then you run the risk of someone else saying exactly what you were going to say - except better. In this instance, it was Sir Sundeck. Thoughtful post !
So to add a few measly crumbs to the feast, there are a couple of points that I would add :-

1/ What's all this "peak" business ? Taking the German example, yes, there was a hyperinflationary period, followed by a replacement currency, which was then hyperinflated during WW2 and was replaced by the Deutschmark which was inflated into the Euro. Any peak event is merely a precursor to the next.

2/ Apparently, no-one in industry or government is too concerned about the fall of American output (which, after all, is the other side of the deficit equation from the vast Chinese and Japanese imports). Why not ? Demographics. While W focuses everyone on Social Security, and how there will be more retirees per worker, no-one mentions that part of the reason is that there is going to be a dramatic reduction in people of working age. When the Boomers retire, the effect is going to be as monumental on the American economy (in a negative sense) as the dislocations created when they entered it. (Note to self - find online graph of population by age) US-based multinational companies are moving offshore because that is both where the labor is cheaper, and also the future markets will be. The US, sadly, will drift off into a much lesser world role. Not absent, but lesser, humbler, as with other post-empire countries such as Spain, Portugal, France and, of course, the UK. And what will be the peak cost of gold in USD in this period of transition ? Whatever the Chinese and Indians say it will be.


GoldiloxHousing Starts fall 17.6%#1313344/19/05; 08:22:52

CNBC just reported March housing starts were down 1.8 million or 17.6%. Although this is skewed by bad weather in the NE and rain in southern California, the number is bleak none the less.

Rising interest rates, inflationary costs, and stubborn unemployment seem to be taking their toll on the RE bubble.

GoldiloxProperty Tax Windfall?#1313354/19/05; 08:34:46

After 3 years of 20+% growth rates in SoCal RE, purchasers are beginning to notice thaeir Prop 13 capped property tax bills add to the sticker shock of a new home purchase.

California's famous Prop 13 was passed decades ago limiting RE taxes to 1% of sales price plus local taxes and bonds (about 1.25% total) with a 1% cap on rate increases for "holders" of the RE. Large turnovers of property have created an increased inflow into county coffers as the average home is about 1/2 million dollars, putting a tax burden on the buyer of about $500 bucks per month, equivalent to rent in some markets.

So the question is, with these windfall increases in property tax, why are California and its local governments still operating in huge deficits?

GoldiloxRelease the Hounds!#1313364/19/05; 08:40:28

Stubborn Crude has bumped up over a buck in the pits, taking the dollar over the falls and giving gold a fine boost for the morning.

Keep that roo meat coming!

GoldiloxSilver#1313374/19/05; 08:47:52

Not to forget Sir Rich, silver is up $0.20 in the last few minutes.

As for the contest, Sssir Sssmeagol is looking pretty sssmart right now!

SurvivorSir Rich - Silver As An Electric Conductor#1313384/19/05; 09:17:13

The Kimber company - same as the mining outfit I think - has for some years produced a solid silver speaker wire for esoteric high-end audio consumers. If you have more doorstops than doors and the patio is finished, you could convert a few bricks into speaker wires :)

- Survivor

KnallgoldHmm,why would they make a new Gold coin if the US has a problem with a Goldshortage?#13133904/19/05; 09:27:47

"WASHINGTON -- The U.S. Mint announced on Tuesday it will begin producing a new 24-karat gold bullion coin early next year, hoping to capitalize on growing international demand for purer gold coins..."
GoldiloxNew Gold Coin#13134004/19/05; 09:32:32

Gee, maybe the SnowMan will short these new coins to MK and we'll see a government sponsored discount program in gold prices. Beats the snot out of short paper!

OK, I'm a dreamer!

GoldiloxUS mint - 24 Karat gold coin plans#13134104/19/05; 09:38:01


The new gold coins are different. They won't enter into general circulation, but will be sold instead to investors and collectors. And the Mint is making clear that the purpose of rolling them out is to make money -- perhaps a lot of it.

"The United States Mint intends to match and exceed world class business practices with this new 24-karat gold bullion coin," said Henrietta Holsman Fore, director of the U.S. Mint, in a statement. "There is a demand, both here and abroad, for 24-karat gold coins. We want to meet this demand by providing the highest quality and most beautiful coins in the world."

According to the Mint, the global market for 24-karat bullion coins is $2.4 billion.

It's clear that the government is responding to competitive pressure. As much as 60 percent of investor-grade gold coins sold last year were 24-karat, with Canada's Maple Leaf piece one of the most popular.

Until now, the highest grade U.S. coins have been the 22-karat American Eagle series, first introduced in the 1980s after Congress banned the sale of South African Kruggerands to protest apartheid.

The Mint claims that the American Eagle accounts for 95 percent of all gold coin sales in the United States. But on the much larger international market, 24-karat pieces are more popular. Washington found itself without an entry in the field.

Although they carry nominal face values, gold coins minted for investors and collectors sell immediately at prices based on the commodities market, where gold prices are currently more than $425 an ounce. The coins will be literally worth their weight in gold.

"The program will have two phases," the Mint's statement noted, "starting with an investor-grade uncirculated 24-karat gold bullion coin, followed by a 24-karat numismatic collector proof coin."


Here's a reference on the mints gold coin plans.

Great Albino BatAbout the new 24-carat gold coin to be minted by US Mint...#13134204/19/05; 09:44:43

Pray tell, what is the price at which the coin is to sell?


Knallgold24#13134304/19/05; 09:49:08

Smells like the official give in to a new Gold paradigma.
968ECB's weekly financial statement.#13134404/19/05; 09:51:34

Gold and gold recievables : minus 34 million euros.
Net foreign currency position : unchanged.

Gold and gold recievables : 127,99 billion.
Net foreign currency position : 159,20 billion.

The ECB's foreign currency position exceeds their gold postion by 24,39%.

TownCrierA "History of Money" slideshow that some of you may find interesting#13134504/19/05; 10:34:36

Of note (pun intended) is the wide variety and hodge-podge of currencies fabricated for use throughout the relatively short span of American history. They come and they go.

After working your way through the presentation, ask yourself, "What is wealth?"

Gold, which was valuable over 200 years ago, alone among the items you'll see pictured in this slideshow, is still valuable today.

Choose the form of your savings wisely.


Chally$$$$ $441.0 $$$$#13134604/19/05; 10:43:31

An NAI event of the magnitude of the German event, is out of the question... I HOPE. Serious inflation MUCH greater than admitted by the 'official' guages is already upon us and I believe will become much worse. I'd blame China, but the real blame goes to the very peole who would cure our trade deficit problem by trying to force the Chinese to unpeg the Yuan. Should the yuan 'float' (appreciate vs.$US), the next tsunami will hit OUR shores, in the form of higher priced imports, which we no longer have the ability to combat through domestic production.

Before this is over, I believe Gold could reaonably by priced around $3200, just based on playing 'catch-up' to asset prices that have already inflated from $$ denominated values since the early 70's.

....oh yeah, BUY now, gold is still an incredible bargain!

TownCrierHere is an Associated Press version of the Mint's new 9999 gold coin program#13134704/19/05; 10:47:59

HEADLINE: Mint to make new gold coin with higher gold content

... hoping to capitalize on growing international demand...

^------(from url)-----^

Why aren't they rolling out a program of gold certificates that pay interest?

Oh yeah.... they already tried that one and it flopped. Only the yellow metal is "as good as gold".

All the world is being swepted gently toward a physical free-gold market.


TownCrierEconomy depends on contradictions#13134804/19/05; 10:53:00,1413,138~10025~2824446,00.html

WASHINGTON -- Buying binges by consumers and companies can power the economy yet catapult the trade deficit.

A weaker dollar can help U.S. manufacturers but hurt American shoppers.

Rising home prices can give a homeowner a sense of wealth and make a house hunter feel cash-strapped.

These are just a few of the apparent contradictions of economics. How an economic development is perceived depends on who is making the assessment -- a consumer, businessman, investor or politician, for example -- and how the economy is treating him.

"These economic contradictions are amplified by financial markets and emphasized by where particular individuals are situated," says Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Banc of America Capital Management. "Where something might be good news for one, it's bad news for another."

^------(see url for full article)----^

Click link -- worth a quick read.


mikal"New" gold coin- ANOTHER international standard#13134904/19/05; 10:54:18

Aside from wanting a purer coin, other
N.American and world markets apparently
have no need for a harder, alloyed 22KT coin
(that would stand up to the friction
of circulation and/or fondling!).
So if there are no more 22KT Eagles(???) after next year,
if true would I pay a higher price for a 22KT someday?
Not in the long run, because even though some dates of fractional modern gold Eagles currently command substantial premiums on the basis of low relative mintage [alas, not due to "hardness" ;)], they will likely IMO trade closely with other Eagles and, with bullion too once POG rises noticeably "unfettered and at leisure". This is because the effects of stagflation and depression will eviscerate many collectibles markets and deflate overpriced, debt driven and speculative items- more sellers than buyers of these items
results. This is why I haven't taken the advice of many coin dealers and numismatists "to buy the best coin(or coins) you can afford". This would be almost like a death sentence, if
you're as sensitive to personal failure as I am ;), if the "historically, great performing rarities" I bought at say
$5000 apiece, should STAY @ $5000 per should POG = $5000.
ANOTHER spin on the new gold coins from MK's newsfeed @

GoldiloxWhite Smoke in the Vatican#13135004/19/05; 10:58:32

Cardinal Ratzinger, Dean of the College of Cardinals and 78 years old, has been elected to be the next Pontiff.

I wonder how much new vestments and crown ornaments will effect gold demand?

Goldilox24-k Coin pricing#13135104/19/05; 11:11:08

@ Mikal and GAB,

That's an interesting question. Current 22-k Eagle coins command the same premium as 24-k Maple Leafs, some say because the 24-k nature of Leafs makes them more vulnerable to damage. From that prespective, 24-k Eagles should cost about the same as the 22-k variety.

Others tout the demand for US issue as the basis for the premium, which is probably more likely. This may add a little to the premium.

How will the new coins affect demand for the 22-k Eagles? Probably not much.

As usual, perception rules marketing, but demand rules pricing.

TownCriermikal, it's about scale and use#13135204/19/05; 11:22:17

I wonder if you are forgetting how VERY much money there is out there, and how VERY wide the world is.

Paint-by-number kits are a sure thing, will always be in demand, and may one day rise to the price of the Mona Lisa and other Old Masters. But just as surely, this big old world will always have an appetite for, and therefore a put a premium upon, the Old Masters.

Just another way of looking at it.

The best a Dickensian "street urchin" might be able to do is a pocket holding a couple of common well-worn coppers as his portable property, whereas someone better off could have a safe containing gold sovereigns, whereas the Queen herself may not have space for so many safes that she naturally gravitates toward some of the convenience of rare specimens.

Again, it's a wide world, and it shouldn't surprise us that there is a unique diversification strategy best suited for each person.


mikal@Goldilox#1313534/19/05; 11:36:22

I agree "perception rules pricing, demand rules the markets" short-term only or LONG-TERM ONLY, depending on the circumstances:
Currently many markets are not free.
Also you make a good point that gold-eagles all have a premium added to them unlike say Krugerrands. I was referring to another one, a DATE-related premium, many fractional eagles currently enjoy, which I expected to be short-term.
Another interesting way one might profit from short-term perception is a possible increased demand for old 22KT Eagles. Another is possible renewed interest in the
formerly circulating US Saint Gaudens (Augustus St. Gaudens designer) 20 Dollar, Double Eagle- especially if his famous,
beautiful standing Liberty continues the "tradition" so to speak, staying on atop the coin's obverse [provided the reverese is not made hideous like U.S. circulating tokens].

TownCrierAsia gold premiums soar on tight supply#1313544/19/05; 11:43:09;:4264a6a4:33c068d08d0d9b2?type=businessNews&localeKey=en_ZA&storyID=8220262

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Premiums for gold bars doubled in Hong Kong on Tuesday...

"Some people who have never dealt with us before are trying to get kilobars from us because the tight supply," said one dealer with Bank of China in Hong Kong.

"Demand is there but we are running out of supply. That pushes the premiums up," said Ellison Chu, a senior manager at Standard Bank London in Hong Kong.

Gold fell to $421.75 an ounce last Thursday, its lowest level in two months, but has since rebounded. The current price is below a three-week high of $429.70 an ounce also hit last week.

"Traders are happy because demand is good and consumers are happy because prices have softened at the right time," said Rajesh Kohsla, a leading New Delhi-based trader.

^------(click url to read whole article)----^

A good article from our Daily Market Report's list of top stories. Click link. Catch the wave of the future.


mikal@TC#1313554/19/05; 11:48:19

Thanks Randy. While I agree with your premise I caution that it is not going to be easy to determine the liquidity or value of many "rarities" in the future. My earlier posts elaborate on this.
And while there are advantages for even myself in smaller storage options, another or as we often say ANOTHER reason
is the physical AMOUNT OF GOLD is vastly different in the two choices.
Of course many have both gold and "rarities" and I know USAGOLD wisely recommends different strategies for different customers. Not only "different strokes for different folks" per se, based on personal preference, but also based on income, goals, time horizon, and other factors.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A reminder#1313564/19/05; 11:48:21

Client Newsletter 04-18-05.

Now posted. . . . .

"Perhaps the reality is that the current crop of problems defy easy answers and short term solutions and when all is said and done, that is probably the real message delivered by last week's stock market plunge. If the down trend gathers momentum in the weeks ahead, 2005 could turn out to be a more harrowing year for investors than most anticipated."

An extensive Short & Sweet for those who like their gold news in bullet form.

And more. . . .

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Introducing our new shipping policy#1313574/19/05; 11:51:00

mikal@Goldilox#1313584/19/05; 12:21:00

An "official" answer to our question, from the government press release: "The United States Mint 22-karat American Eagle gold bullion program will continue."
goldenpeaceContest: $$$$$$$439.50$$$$$$$$$$$#1313594/19/05; 12:46:16

With the derivatives market as broadly developed(or undeveloped if you will) as they are , mostly OTC and with notional value of $250 Trillion, any default on a broad scale,( and GM , AIG or FNM may be the tip of the iceberg) will cause massive liquidity creation in the weak link, the US, and then in the world fiat creation centers...thus any inflation event would be worldwide in scope , not just North American. Got gold and silver?

The CoinGuyNew Gold Coin...Townie#1313604/19/05; 12:54:32

Interesting. I like the "Investor Grade" verbiage mentioned in the article. Townie, if I may. Will this coin have a "value" printed upon it? Or, are they moving away from this practice. Also, how does this effect the legal tender aspect if it doesn't have a printed to speak.

I will mention one of FOA's best statements here. You can't confiscate something twice. Although, legal tendered items, I've felt might not fall into this category.

Best Regards,


P.S. At a time, I could answer questions such as these off the top of my head, but as time goes on, we become busy, and I'm rather feeble in mind, but not deed.

Buongiorno!$$$$$443.40$$$$$#1313614/19/05; 13:10:47

The NAI is imminent, IMO, just like a dry forest with hot summer days is just waiting for a flash of lightning or an unattended fire to set things off. When things unwind, at first slowly, then perhaps with bewildering speed, most will wonder what the heck hit them. They will be like the proverbial "jackass in a hailstorm" with no place to go. Just hunker down and take it. We select few may have homes paid for, outta debt, and with a stash of essentials (to include lots of gold and silver coins) will be able to function reasonably well.

We saw some fierce whipsaw action a few weeks ago and I think that will be magnified as banks and governments struggle to get a handle on things. This will move even more precious from weak hands to strong. "Hang in there, gang!" Gold can challenge the old high at over 800--form there, my crystal ball gets a little cloudy.

We also have our great stable of wise and able folks gathered at the castle to dispense humor and wisdom as needed. Most fortunate! We are almost as ready as can be.


TownCrierThe(Physical)CoinGuy, on stamping the bullion $XX.xx#13136304/19/05; 13:58:51

"Will this coin have a "value" printed upon it?"

I think that is a solid assumption, especially in light of this particular line from the official PRESS RELEASE:

"The Treasury Secretary would approve the designs, DENOMINATIONS and quantities of the coins." [emphasis added]

It also stands to reason that a face value of some sort will remain in place because retaining the legal tender ($) insignia would entail the least degree of enabling legislative amendments in order to roll this four-nines program through the mint with existing operations.

Getting to your "what-if" question regarding "how does this effect the legal tender aspect if it doesn't have a printed value?", given the powers of Congress, even something lacking a face value could, by decree, be declared a "legal tender". However, as implied above, the symbolic legal tender face value inscribed on the coins have as much to do with the official due process for using the powers and facilities of the US Mint, and effectively conveys that the coin can be accepted as good and without need for further assay.

Speaking of no "face value", and also speaking personally, the old sovereigns have emerged as my favorite form of gold. It's a bit like having the best of both worlds.


The CoinGuyTC....Thanks for the Reply#13136404/19/05; 14:11:49

I didn't read the "official press release".

I'd have to agree on the foreign small gold coins. My tastes are more oriented to the South American species in that regard, but I do have a nice collection of the european coins. Both are beautiful in their own way.



TownCrierThe CoinGuy, "My tastes are more oriented to the South American species..."#13136504/19/05; 15:05:33

Then prepare to hang onto your hat for the following newsflash in that regard...

I'm currently working with Jonathan on putting a page together for USAGOLD-Centennial's recent acquisition of around 600 Argentinos (minted 1881 - 1896

The CoinGuyTC#13136604/19/05; 15:29:47

Those particular coins, US coins aside, are in the top 5 of my favorites. I'll take a look-see when the page is added.

I might add, as a professional in the sector. Now, despite some "slight" further weakness is the perfect time to be adding to personal holdings. You can be rest assured, these prices are at giveaway levels.

I'm currently in the process of taking my own advice, and am under the firm belief, I have plenty of "smart" company in my endeavors.



GoldiloxFinancial Crisis?#1313674/19/05; 15:37:35

Now that most folks seem immunized to the rantings of the FED thugs and used wallpaper salesmen, CNBC has arranged for an interview with the Prez to sell his SSI and energy policies to their minions.

No one-sided media coverage here. Just fair and balanced reporting!

If we're not in a crisis, we're must be practicing for the real dance!

slingshotFriends, Goldbugs and countrymen.#1313684/19/05; 16:07:36

Lend me your ears. I do not come to bury Gold, but to praise it! Whether we will ponder upon the pitfalls of this ancient metal, I say Nay. But only dwell upon its substance it will bare in the future. Shall we turn a blindeye to all that stands before us. Denying the inevitable. Gold only has to break the bonds of Darkness, then all shall see its glorious assention to its proper role in the lives of men.
Untill then, we united, will welcome those who seek to free themselves from the bondage and put an end to this paper slavery.


TownCrierSneak peek#1313694/19/05; 16:41:29

Gold Argentinos


goldeyeNice to see the 10-year yield close a titch above 4.19%#1313704/19/05; 16:58:26

The yield is up to 4.22% now no doubt once again in anticipation to tomorrow's 8:30 a.m. EST release of the CPI -- headline exp. CPI 0.5%, exp. core CPI 0.2% (ex. food + energy). Now this morning the 10-year yield got up to a tad above 4.29% just before the PPI release -- let's see if history repeats.

Finally, the DX closed just above 83.50 but this move was long overdue due to the continuing downward trend of the 10-year. Of course today's downward move in the DX had a lot of down gaps too. The good news is that the DX looks to be trending lower but unfortunately the currency markets have a tendancy to fill up-or-down gaps a lot quicker than stocks. Plus bonds are due for a bit of a correction here. In short, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see the 10-year yield back above 4.30% for a little bit in the immediate ST and the DX to once again close at least one more time above 84.00 (or slightly under) before it finally closes below 83.50 and much lower. The good earnings news AH from Yahoo and Intel and the residual AH resurgance of many Naz-type stocks adds fuel to my last sentence. But quite a lot hinges on tomorrow's CPI report -- that really is THE wild card for the rest of the week the way I see it, especially since there are no other major reports (except earnings) until next week. fwiw. Jmvho.

P.S. by the way, the pog I think should reach at least $456 spot sometime in May. fwiw. Jmvho.

goldeyeThe goldies had a great day, but...#1313714/19/05; 17:04:18

but I get very nervous when I start to sense a whiff of excitement or enthusiasm in the gold stox (no matter how warranted) -- personally I'd rather go up on a wall of worry and have the nervous nellies sell out. But once again, a lot depends on how the market wants to interpret and perceive tomorrow's data. Remember, we're in manipulated markets every day of the week. fwiw. Jmvho.
Black Blade@Townie - Argentinos#1313724/19/05; 17:19:37

Well now, I will have to keep on top of that and probably snare a few for myself (not many made ya know). I also like the 20 peso Mexican Gold with that old Aztec calender on the reverse as well. The Castle Guards just may find Black Blade making a raid on the treasury. ;-)

- Black Blade

TownCrierSnow says make that 'no' a "hell no' on IMF sales#1313734/19/05; 17:57:07

WASHINGTON, April 19 (Reuters) - ..."There's no consensus on this among the G7 (Group of Seven rich countries) or the board of the IMF," Snow said in answer to lawmaker questions before the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, where he was testifying on the state of the global financial system.

"I think that if you did a vote now -- I haven't ever taken a vote count -- you'd have as many or more against than in favor of the gold sales," he said. "The U.S. position is clear on that. It is inadvisable and not a course of action we could support. ... I don't see how they will ever be successful."

^-----(from url)----^


Black BladeUSAGOLD#1313744/19/05; 18:04:59

Well now, the "Blade" just absconded with some Argentinos from the USAGOLD Castle Treasury like a thief in the night.

(Note to the Castle guards - "that was too easy" - also note my billing address is different than my shipping address).

- Black Blade

TownCrierInvestors to sue Germany over unpaid pre-war gold-backed bonds#1313754/19/05; 18:10:21

FRANKFURT, April 19 (Reuters) - A group of investors holding German gold-backed bonds issued in the 1920s said on Tuesday they would sue the government, banks and others for $7.8 billion after Adolf Hitler's Nazi government defaulted on the loans.

The group is being led by the New York lawyer Ed Fagan who shot to fame having won more than 1 billion euros in compensation from Swiss banks for the families of holocaust victims.

He told journalists that notices were now being served on German government finance agencies, the Bundesbank and commercial banks to attend a May 13 hearing on the case in New York.

He issued a strong warning to defendants at a journalists' briefing in Frankfurt, saying that U.S. courts would look sympathetically on the claim.

"When we win the lawsuit in the United States you're dead, financially. This case far eclipses the Holocaust claims," Fagan said, commenting on its monetary scale.

^-----(from url)-----^


If these folks had been holding metal gold instead of promissory interest-bearing paper-gold they wouldn't find themselves in this current fix.

I think at the end of the day they are going to discover that even after adjudication and the patience of two-generations there is no way that paper gold is as good as the real thing. I hope nobody is holding their breath on this one despite Fagan's misplaced optimism.

Perhaps the resulting judicial rulings from this case will provide the initial legal propulsion in modern times toward the so-called free-gold environment that many of us see as inevitiable.

Bring it on... Let the courts bring down the axe on paper gold once and for all.


balzacGOLD PRICE GUESS#1313764/19/05; 18:25:40

Inflation has been rising like the tide ,inperceptively over the last 3
years. Denied by the manipulators (govt minions) but observed
by all in the terms of real wealth, the most obvious is real estate,
but all commodites have shown the truth as well.

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1313774/19/05; 18:43:20">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Tuesday market excerpts

April 19 (from Reuters) -- Dealers said currency moves remained the gold market's major focus and safe-haven buying due to gyrations in equities and oil markets was less of a factor than on Monday, when U.S. stocks were at their lowest for the year.

"The weaker dollar was driving the market and we just blew through chart points, followed by short covering," said Ian MacDonald, managing director of precious metals at International Asset Holding Corp.

"Gold prices, at the lows, are still very well-supported by physical and fund buying. But it still looks like we're in consolidation mode and we have work to do until we can break seriously to the upside," he said. COMEX June gold contracts rose $5.40 to $434.40, its loftiest close since March 18, and its third straight daily rise since it bottomed at a two-month low at $423.50 last Thursday. Scott Meyers, an analyst at Pioneer Futures, said prices had gotten a boost as funds re-entered the market to bargain-hunt after the market got technically oversold late last week.

Additionally, physical demand from jewelers and from top-consumer India have helped lift the yellow metal from recent lows, while an apparent diminishing chance of IMF gold sales to fund Third World debt relief also was supportive to the market, trading sources said.

-----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)----

TownCrierPlaying with fire... US pushed on renmenbi float#1313784/19/05; 18:52:00§ion=news&news_id=bus-n19115520&date=20050419&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw

HEADLINE: Bush Eyes Interim China Step on Currency

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush said on Tuesday that China was considering taking an interim step toward easing its rigid currency regime and that Washington wants action as soon as possible.

An interim move could help ease rising Sino-U.S. tensions, but Bush said the United States would still keep the pressure on Beijing to "eventually" let markets set the value of the yuan currency.

Bush sought on Tuesday to play down concerns that China was trying to crowd the United States out of energy markets. "I don't think there's a ... kind of economic war plan," Bush said. "I do think they're trying to ... satisfy a huge appetite for a massive economy growth, a fast-growing economy."

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, in testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services, reinforced the message that "now" is the time for China to loosen its exchange rate.

But he rejected suggestions from Sen. Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat ... Schumer and Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, have crafted legislation threatening China with a 27.5 percent across-the-board tariff unless it stops pegging the yuan at 8.28 to the dollar.

The Senate voted 67-33 in favor of that measure earlier this month. The victory -- which Schumer and Graham admitted caught them by surprise -- prompted Senate leaders to promise a second vote on the bill before July 27 if they agreed to drop the measure until then.

Although Bush administration officials have previously disavowed the bill, Schumer told reporters he had been received a different message in private. "I have gotten signals from the administration, quiet signals, that they're happy we're doing this," Schumer said.

^-----(from url)-----^

What will be the market for U.S. Treasuries in the resulting environment?

Be careful what you wish for...

Choose gold to see you through.


Gandalf the WhiteUS$ chart to the 83.5 area !#1313794/19/05; 21:06:52

Can it be a daily ocurrance for a few days ?

Gandalf the WhiteKING of the HILL report for TUESDAY ! <;-)#1313804/19/05; 21:15:32

TC posted: "COMEX June gold contracts rose $5.40 to $434.40, its loftiest close since March 18, and its third straight daily rise since it bottomed at a two-month low at $423.50 last Thursday."
$$$$ $434.0 $$$$ Gonlyold (04/18/05; 21:33:56MT - msg#: 131326
The King of the Hill is ----
Sir Gonlyold !!
REMEMBER, all entries are to be posted before MIDNIGHT on Wednesday (Denver time) !


POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 4/19/05, TUESDAY at 21:00 Denver time

BASIS of Question -- (In keeping with the spirit of the German 20 mark coin and referring to the Nightmare German Inflation (NGI) report as seen at the above LINK for educational purposes.) --

The QUESTION -- (Put on your THINKING HATS !)
Is a Nightmare American Inflation (NAI) a possibility as America may have passed the point of no return. SOOO, What could be the price of gold at the NAI's PEAK and WHY ?" in 30 words or more.

Entries listed in order of decending values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (4/13/05; 18:05:18MT - msg#: 131160)

$$$$ $474.1 $$$$ Beamer (4/17/05; 01:40:45MT - msg#: 131261)

$$$$ $462.0 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (4/14/05; 09:16:26MT - msg#: 131173)

$$$$ $451.2 $$$$ mikal (4/14/05; 23:59:56MT - msg#: 131195)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Goldilox (4/12/05; 23:58:41MT - msg#: 131136)

$$$$ $443.4 $$$$ Buongiorno! (4/19/05; 13:10:47MT - msg#: 131361)

$$$$ $442.1 $$$$ Henri (4/13/05; 11:07:18MT - msg#: 131147)

$$$$ $441.0 $$$$ Chally (04/19/05; 10:43:31MT - msg#: 131346)

$$$$ $439.9 $$$$ PNB (4/17/05; 04:17:48MT - msg#: 131262)

$$$$ $439.5 $$$$ goldenpeace (4/19/05; 12:46:16MT - msg#: 131359)

$$$$ $438.5 $$$$ Bulldog (4/14/05; 12:50:53MT - msg#: 131178)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ OvS (4/16/05; 14:41:41MT - msg#: 131248)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ commish (4/12/05; 22:46:35MT - msg#: 131135)

$$$$ $436.3 $$$$ balzac (4/19/05; 18:25:40MT - msg#: 131376)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ Rustee (4/13/05; 09:58:16MT - msg#: 131144)

$$$$ $435.0 $$$$ Clink! (4/19/05; 07:14:45MT - msg#: 131333)

$$$$ $434.6 $$$$ arbyh (4/17/05; 07:59:44MT - msg#: 131267)

$$$$ $434.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (4/13/05; 09:58:54MT - msg#: 131145)

$$$$ $434.0 $$$$ Gonlyold (04/18/05; 21:33:56MT - msg#: 131326)

$$$$ $433.3 $$$$ Gandalf the White (04/18/05; 20:40:44MT - msg#: 131324)

$$$$ $432.1 $$$$ Smeagol (4/13/05; 17:20:02MT - msg#: 131159)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ Felix the Cat (4/19/05; 01:02:06MT - msg#: 131329)

$$$$ $430.5 $$$$ jimbojim39 (4/17/05; 08:45:42MT - msg#: 131269)

$$$$ $428.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (4/17/05; 04:54:11MT - msg#: 131263)

$$$$ $428.7 $$$$ slingshot (4/15/05; 06:16:47MT - msg#: 131196)

$$$$ $427.5 $$$$ 2023 (4/13/05; 07:47:34MT - msg#: 131141)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (4/13/05; 03:16:49MT - msg#: 131139)

$$$$ $425.0 $$$$ DryWasher (4/17/05; 08:39:09MT - msg#: 131268)

$$$$ $423.5 $$$$ Liberty Head (4/14/05; 20:11:28MT - msg#: 131189)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Federal_Reserves (4/13/05; 16:59:33MT - msg#: 131158)

$$$$ $417.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (4/16/05; 22:57:23MT - msg#: 131258)

$$$$ $415.5 $$$$ mackattack (4/17/05; 00:46:36MT - msg#: 131260)


Ok -- Time to get THINKING again about the ENTRY QUESTION, and the PRICE of GOLD at SETTLEMENT on Friday ! ONLY ONE more "Trading Days" to go, as the ENTRY DEADLINE is Wednesday midnight in Denver.


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) June 2005 Gold Contract (GCM5) on the date of Friday, April 22, 2005.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $444.4)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $444.4 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Wednesday, April 20, 2005.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph, or more, discussing
"THE Nightmare American Inflation QUESTION". <===== NOTE !!!

Black BladePOG Contest#1313824/19/05; 21:26:06

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand

Quite the optimist. I love it. Quite persistent too. Never say die brother - it's gonna happen someday. ;-)

- Black Blade

physicalmannone#1313834/19/05; 21:33:29

Still working in the wilds of the south. Nice to see a little attention paid to silver today. Don't post much anymore but wanted to share some observations of mine over the last several months.
Except for buying it in newly minted form, silver availibility has been almost non-exsistant for about 15 months. None of the pawn-brokers or southern dealers i visit get any inventory in except for 1- 12,000 oz. buy which i repurchased 2 months ago. Was setting up water account for herbaceous spray program in louisiana last week and while i was waiting for manager to show ,watched 9 people pay their water bills , 7 with credit cards and 2 with money orders instead of cash. Lady at counter said that if it wasn't for credit-cards, half or more of the people in that utility district would have had their water service turned off in last 60 days.
I travel in a lot of small towns all over the south with my jobs and 4 co.s and if it were not for credit -cards, gasoline consumption would have dropped by 1/3rd or more. Everyone seems to be paying for the nessecities anymore with credit instead of earned fiat. Or living off the government dole. It is much worse than you will here from any media source but we have got to be close to a 10 sigma event with the dependence of so many people for the neccessary items of life purchased by credit.
Have been buying all the physical offered to me for many months and with the purchase today of a 100,50 and 10 oz. bar have hit my goal of 20 metric tonnes of ag.
Now, time to stock-pile lead and other provisions as per Black Blades recomendations.
Cheers and god's blessings to all,

RAPTalk about making money!#1313844/19/05; 21:40:24

The US mint is the only place I know of that can make a $19 profit on a 25 cent item.
Black BladeGold Still Lustrous #1313854/19/05; 21:55:24


Despite suffering a shellacking last Thursday, gold has held up pretty well so far in 2005. Most notably, the yellow metal is outperforming major equity averages, which were down between 5.7% and 12.3% year to date heading into Monday's session.

Gold's relative strength is a sign of its appeal as a long-term investment, adherents say, especially for those worried about the state of the U.S. economy. Some key components that every investor should take a close look at when considering an investment in precious metals are the trade deficit, the budget deficit and the valuation of the dollar.

Black Blade: Nor can the fact of "negative real rates" be discouted either. Every time there have been negative real rates Gold has outperformed - and that situation is not likely to change any time soon.

Black BladeNY gold and silver stretch higher on fund buying#1313864/19/05; 21:59:51


NEW YORK, April 19 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures carved out four-week highs Tuesday morning on fund buying prompted by a dropping dollar, and dealers said the metal was poised to rise further after breaking above resistance.
Silver prices also got a leg up as speculators bid up the precious metals, which were more attractive with the U.S. currency falling.

Black Blade: Precious Metals and Energy - demand continues to outstrip supply. Definitely a time to be in accumulation mode.

SundeckPssst...Sir Gandalf...a word in your ear, if I may?#1313874/19/05; 22:07:13

My entry of $440.0 is missing from your latest list - see message #131328. (It WAS very late last night - perhaps your nightcap was pulled down over your eyes.)


Yukon$$$$440.50$$$$#1313884/19/05; 22:57:09

A nightmare american inflation is not possible because we have the ability to thwart rising inflation with increasing interest rates. This would of course be managed by the exceptional minds running the Federal Reserve. They have such an impeccable record for staying on top of monetary affairs that any thought to the contrary of judicious malfeasence is just plain lunacy! If we have a nightmare american inflation, then someone at the Fed wants it so! Look at how strong our nation and currency are at present. Has not the value of our present dollar been maintained at roughly 0.02 cents of a 1913 dollar? Inflation is a totally managable phenomenon and as soon as interest rates rise above the level of inflation, you will see the value of the dollar rise as noted on the USDX as money managers sell gold and buy dollars.

Unfortunately, rising interest rates kill our local economy, so it is not that easy to raise rates. Plus, we have definite deflationary pressures to deal with which is what got us into this inflationary scenario to begin with! Oh well, at least the U.S. Mint is doing there part to help us all out with their plans for the new 24k bullion coin. Keep it real, gang, the waters are getting choppy!

Viva Liberty!

Black BladeAmeritrade warns 200,000 clients of lost data#1313894/19/05; 23:21:39


Account information, including SSNs, on missing tapeBy Bob Sullivan

Ameritrade Inc. has advised 200,000 current and former customers that a computer backup tape containing their personal information has been lost, has learned. The tape contained information spanning the years 2000-2003, and included both current and past consumers of the online broker, according to spokeswoman Donna Kush.

Black Blade: That Ameritrade did not take care shipping this type of customer information is rather disturbing and shows "bad form". Definitely unprofessional on their part.

YGM$$$$$437.70$$$$$#1313904/20/05; 00:32:10

(NAI) If one wants to qualify the coming inflation as a nightmare I believe you would have to consider the financial preparedness of each of us individually. Are we so lulled into the depths of sleep by the system that we shall need our wives purses to carry enough FRN's shop or barter for goods in future, or is our sleep unclouded and perceptive in nature in which case we may only carry a 10th oz piece of Gold or a Coin of Silver for the same purchases? The Federal Reserve has already prepared for the onslaught of inflation years past. The Federal Reserve banking criminals are called inflation hawks because of the aggressiveness with which they raise interest rates to battle inflation. A look at M1 expansion might give some idea about how these fractional reserve banksters go about combating inflation. Worried about a possible Y2K panic, the Federal Reserve created $194 billion in new currency during the 13 weeks preceding January, 2000, and thus with another 4 plus years of running the presses they should be amply prepared for the eventual "Banana Republic" style hyperinflation should it occur. I believe it is then at that time our old friends and guides, Another & FOA will return to these pages and their wisdom will have been revealed....YGM
Topazalt Gold.#1313914/20/05; 02:49:37

Despite the recent well-canvassed commercial short action on Comex, Gold is still showing it's currency counterparts a clean pair of heels.
Been a bit of activity at the Warehouse lately too with a coupla hundred "lots" being shuffled around ...after several days "rest" for Quazimoto.

SundeckDemographics in the western world - aging populations#1313924/20/05; 06:15:31

@Sir Clink! Msg #131333

Thank you for your kind words re my answers to the NAI question…

Picking up your second point about aging populations... I think it may have a strong bearing on many of the economic problems confronted by the US and Australia (balance of trade, in particular).

Of course, the problem of the bulge in the demographic pyramid shifting upwards to greater ages is not unique to the US. If memory serves, the same is happening in Australia, Japan, the UK, Germany and probably many other countries as well. Certainly, the issue has attracted considerable attention in the press and at high political levels in Australia, the UK and Germany in recent times. In Australia, at least, the government has been "conditioning" the population to the idea that they may need to work longer; that the idea of "early retirement" may not be viable. Perhaps the political mood in the US is not right for such discussion, but I suspect it will come.

The trend towards smaller families in "westernised" countries is probably aided by improved education, and a trend towards equality, for women; supported by more effective contraception (both its availability and willingness of adoption). This, combined with better socio-economic circumstances, enables people to make wider lifestyle and career choices that tend to compete with the desire for more children, thereby helping to limit numbers of offspring. In turn these factors feed back into the community and economy at large, building breadth and depth in complexity and opportunity, and enhancing wealth across the board.

A natural consequence of these improved circumstances is the ability of countries to broadly provide improved aged care, health care and social security for their peoples. Unfortunately, the very circumstances that have lead to and now characterise our societal well-being (increasing populations, youthful demographic pyramid, broader lifestyle and career choices, leading to reduced family responsibilities) appear now to be working against us – because the societal expectations are cast in stone, but there is not enough youth coming through to continue the paradigm.

China as well is going to suffer a similar problem in the not too distant future as their "one child" policy has been in effect for how long now?...30 years? Hence, while China is industrialising in fast-forward mode, the bulge in its demographic pyramid is moving upwards in fast-forward mode as well, forced along by state mandate. One difference between China and the West, however, is that China has not had time (within its patchy, new-found opulence) to put in place the same kinds of expensive social security systems found in western countries. Thus, their forward commitments are not accruing (ballooning?) as they are in the US, Australia and elsewhere.

On the other hand, some countries in Latin America, Africa, and parts of Asia are not limiting their populations in the manner to which I refer, and their demographic pyramids are still broad at the base and taper smoothly all the way up; and will remain that way short of some major active (China) or passive (the West) societal interventions. Many of these countries are industrialising and modernising (Brazil, India) and to some extent they will be able to leap-frog forward in the way of China. Not all will succeed…especially in a world growing more competitive for "easy energy" provided by petroleum and natural gas, and other resources, but alternative avenues may be available: the paradigm won't be the same as it has been in countries like the US and Australia.

Back home in the US and Oz, the problem may unfold in unexpected ways, and the news may not be all bad. For example, as a population ages, its "spectrum of consumption" changes. Leaving aside the "compulsive consumers", generally older people eat less, are happy with less gadgetry, become more conservative and seek different lifestyle alternatives to younger people. These trends are very complex, but my feeling is that an older population may demand fewer imported gadgets and services than a younger population. Over long periods, this may work in favour of balance of trade. Also, changes in the spectrum of consumption feed back into the nature of the economy at home. While the US may loose the edge in certain kinds of innovative pursuits and in design and manufacturing of products and services for youthful, expanding populations, perhaps they will become great innovators for the aged!

The US has produced (or at least been a major player in) several great waves of innovation throughout its history. Some of these are still unfolding and others, as yet unidentified, may be silently building and will burst upon us over the next generation. The old US dog may have another bark in him yet…however I do feel that a major paradigm shift is going to have to occur in what Americans believe that it is to "be American". A lot of this has to do with consumption. Ask yourself what it is that is different between Japan (enormous trade surplus) and the US (enormous trade deficit). Both populations are aging and probably have similarly shaped demographic pyramids. I suspect the big differences are in personal savings and personal consumption.

Sorry, Sir Clink!. This has turned out about five times longer than I had intended…but you raise an interesting subject…



Black BladeConsumer Prices Up More Than Expected#1313934/20/05; 06:41:48;jsessionid=GPVGLKVE5YCK2CRBAEKSFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=8237376


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Another surge in energy prices helped push U.S. underlying inflation up at the sharpest rate in 2 1/2 years during March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday in a report likely to reignite concerns that inflation is on the rise.

Black Blade: Didn't hedonically deflate enough I guess.

Black BladeRice: Russia Should Increase Oil Supply#1313944/20/05; 06:44:58


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in an interview broadcast on CBS on Wednesday that Russia should increase its supply of oil. "What Russia can do is to adopt polices in its energy sector in terms of the development of its energy sector that will increase the supply of oil both in the short term and -- hopefully in the short term -- but most especially in the long term," she said in the interview.

Black Blade: Obviously the good doctor does not understand the energy markets or the concept of "peak production".


POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 4/20/05, WEDNESDAY at 08:+ Denver time

REMEMBER that the Entry DEADLINE is at MIDNIGHT today !!! Tick Tock

BASIS of Question -- (In keeping with the spirit of the German 20 mark coin and referring to the Nightmare German Inflation (NGI) report as seen at the above LINK for educational purposes.) --

The QUESTION -- (Put on your THINKING HATS !)
Is a Nightmare American Inflation (NAI) a possibility as America may have passed the point of no return. SOOO, What could be the price of gold at the NAI's PEAK and WHY ?" in 30 words or more.

Entries listed in order of decending values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (4/13/05; 18:05:18MT - msg#: 131160)

$$$$ $474.1 $$$$ Beamer (4/17/05; 01:40:45MT - msg#: 131261)

$$$$ $462.0 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (4/14/05; 09:16:26MT - msg#: 131173)

$$$$ $451.2 $$$$ mikal (4/14/05; 23:59:56MT - msg#: 131195)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Goldilox (4/12/05; 23:58:41MT - msg#: 131136)

$$$$ $443.4 $$$$ Buongiorno! (4/19/05; 13:10:47MT - msg#: 131361)

$$$$ $442.1 $$$$ Henri (4/13/05; 11:07:18MT - msg#: 131147)

$$$$ $441.0 $$$$ Chally (04/19/05; 10:43:31MT - msg#: 131346)

$$$$ $440.5 $$$$ Yukon (4/19/05; 22:57:09MT - msg#: 131388)

$$$$ $440.0 $$$$ Sundeck (4/18/05; 22:48:39MT - msg#: 131328)
$$$$ $439.9 $$$$ PNB (4/17/05; 04:17:48MT - msg#: 131262)

$$$$ $439.5 $$$$ goldenpeace (4/19/05; 12:46:16MT - msg#: 131359)

$$$$ $438.5 $$$$ Bulldog (4/14/05; 12:50:53MT - msg#: 131178)

$$$$ $437.7 $$$$ YGM (4/20/05; 00:32:10MT - msg#: 131390)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ OvS (4/16/05; 14:41:41MT - msg#: 131248)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ commish (4/12/05; 22:46:35MT - msg#: 131135)

$$$$ $436.3 $$$$ balzac (4/19/05; 18:25:40MT - msg#: 131376)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ Rustee (4/13/05; 09:58:16MT - msg#: 131144)

$$$$ $435.0 $$$$ Clink! (4/19/05; 07:14:45MT - msg#: 131333)

$$$$ $434.6 $$$$ arbyh (4/17/05; 07:59:44MT - msg#: 131267)

$$$$ $434.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (4/13/05; 09:58:54MT - msg#: 131145)

$$$$ $434.0 $$$$ Gonlyold (04/18/05; 21:33:56MT - msg#: 131326)

$$$$ $433.3 $$$$ Gandalf the White (04/18/05; 20:40:44MT - msg#: 131324)

$$$$ $432.1 $$$$ Smeagol (4/13/05; 17:20:02MT - msg#: 131159)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ Felix the Cat (4/19/05; 01:02:06MT - msg#: 131329)

$$$$ $430.5 $$$$ jimbojim39 (4/17/05; 08:45:42MT - msg#: 131269)

$$$$ $428.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (4/17/05; 04:54:11MT - msg#: 131263)

$$$$ $428.7 $$$$ slingshot (4/15/05; 06:16:47MT - msg#: 131196)

$$$$ $427.5 $$$$ 2023 (4/13/05; 07:47:34MT - msg#: 131141)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (4/13/05; 03:16:49MT - msg#: 131139)

$$$$ $425.0 $$$$ DryWasher (4/17/05; 08:39:09MT - msg#: 131268)

$$$$ $423.5 $$$$ Liberty Head (4/14/05; 20:11:28MT - msg#: 131189)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Federal_Reserves (4/13/05; 16:59:33MT - msg#: 131158)

$$$$ $417.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (4/16/05; 22:57:23MT - msg#: 131258)

$$$$ $415.5 $$$$ mackattack (4/17/05; 00:46:36MT - msg#: 131260)



1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) June 2005 Gold Contract (GCM5) on the date of Friday, April 22, 2005.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $444.4)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $444.4 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Wednesday, April 20, 2005.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph, or more, discussing
"THE Nightmare American Inflation QUESTION". <===== NOTE !!!

Gandalf the WhiteThanks Sir SUNDECK !#13139604/20/05; 08:28:37

You were correct !
ASLEEP and missed you there, HUGGING Goldheart PNB !

Gandalf the WhiteWOWSERS -- The ESF just got their HEADS ----#13139704/20/05; 08:38:20

Handed to themselves on a SILVER PLATTER !
US$ Chart --

Rimh$$$$$$$ 440.8 $$$$$$$#13139804/20/05; 09:45:46

One day we shall awake and realize that the NAI is a reality and we will consider ourselves fortunate to have been prepared for it for some time. Not that we will revel in its arrival, for it will be hard times, but prepared to help our neighbors and friends cope with it. It seems hard to convince anyone today of the dangers of that great mountain of debt at all levels. And with AG's presses cranking at full speed, it already has a feel like Germany in 1922.... At what point will the dollar begin it's rapid decline to near worthlessness?

It was a few years back at this very forum I read "We shall have the hyperinflation!" followed by the sage advice "Get outta debt, stay outta debt, get gold and silver (and non-perishable food rations)". Keep up the good work, Knights and Ladies!

GoldiloxMore CPI data#1313994/20/05; 10:00:37


Buried further into the news release is word that health care for the first three months of this year was increasing at a 10.3% clip and energy commodities, like gasoline, were up 39.6%. Ouch. Our 13% annual forecast might get uncomfortably close, especially when you consider the government numbers have an incentive built-in to under report actuals because to go higher would mean increasing wages of federal workers, military, and yes, even Social Security recipients.


More CPI analysis over at Urban Survival. We can probably expect the hedonics to get even more preposterous in the face of built-in COLA adjustments for so many people. COLA raises increase the deficit, which increases the borrowing, which increases the interest payments to offshore creditors, ete., etc., etc.

YGMGATA & GoldRush 21 Dawson City Yukon. (Important Turning Point)#1314004/20/05; 10:02:41

The Spell of the Yukon

I wanted the gold, and I sought it,
I scrabbled and mucked like a slave.
Was it famine or scurvy -- I fought it;
I hurled my youth into a grave.
I wanted the gold, and I got it --
Came out with a fortune last fall, --
Yet somehow life's not what I thought it,
And somehow the gold isn't all.

No! There's the land. (Have you seen it?)
It's the cussedest land that I know,
From the big, dizzy mountains that screen it
To the deep, deathlike valleys below.
Some say God was tired when He made it;
Some say it's a fine land to shun;
Maybe; but there's some as would trade it
For no land on earth -- and I'm one.

You come to get rich (damned good reason);
You feel like an exile at first;
You hate it like hell for a season,
And then you are worse than the worst.
It grips you like some kinds of sinning;
It twists you from foe to a friend;
It seems it's been since the beginning;
It seems it will be to the end.

I've stood in some mighty-mouthed hollow
That's plumb-full of hush to the brim;
I've watched the big, husky sun wallow
In crimson and gold, and grow dim,
Till the moon set the pearly peaks gleaming,
And the stars tumbled out, neck and crop;
And I've thought that I surely was dreaming,
With the peace o' the world piled on top.

The summer -- no sweeter was ever;
The sunshiny woods all athrill;
The grayling aleap in the river,
The bighorn asleep on the hill.
The strong life that never knows harness;
The wilds where the caribou call;
The freshness, the freedom, the farness --
O God! how I'm stuck on it all.

The winter! the brightness that blinds you,
The white land locked tight as a drum,
The cold fear that follows and finds you,
The silence that bludgeons you dumb.
The snows that are older than history,
The woods where the weird shadows slant;
The stillness, the moonlight, the mystery,
I've bade 'em good-by -- but I can't.

There's a land where the mountains are nameless,
And the rivers all run God knows where;
There are lives that are erring and aimless,
And deaths that just hang by a hair;
There are hardships that nobody reckons;
There are valleys unpeopled and still;
There's a land -- oh, it beckons and beckons,
And I want to go back -- and I will.

They're making my money diminish;
I'm sick of the taste of champagne.
Thank God! when I'm skinned to a finish
I'll pike to the Yukon again.
I'll fight -- and you bet it's no sham-fight;
It's hell! -- but I've been there before;
And it's better than this by a damnsite --
So me for the Yukon once more.

There's gold, and it's haunting and haunting;
It's luring me on as of old;
Yet it isn't the gold that I'm wanting
So much as just finding the gold.
It's the great, big, broad land 'way up yonder,
It's the forests where silence has lease;
It's the beauty that thrills me with wonder,
It's the stillness that fills me with peace.

--- Robert Service

The Hoople$$$$ 441.8 $$$$#1314014/20/05; 10:08:18

NAI seems inevitable. The POG, as it almost always done will show the true sins of the fiat issued. In the digital age of derivatives and keystrokes replacing printing presses it is harder to come up with a number that clears past egregious behaviour. I could argue up to $30,000 might be required if the $ trillions are divided into the paltry tons of gold our government (allegedly) owns. Banks almost always demand collateral for loans yet they "loan" to us fiat with the decades-unaudited notatation of "deep storage gold". It doesn't instill faith in the quality of the collateral I am being asked to trust. I too require collateral. That's why I own gold. Those banksters aren't dumb guys.
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Great Albino BatExtracted from a letter received yesterday, from TEXAS:#1314034/20/05; 11:01:06

"The market has really been cruel to us but fortunately the oils came back pretty good today. The China fuel problems discussed in an article that I email earlier this hour to you is most interesting as the shortages of fuel has slowed their manufacturing capabilities materially. Soon they'll correct all of that by capturing oil production from our traditional suppliers simply by paying higher prices.

"Recently Saudi Arabia announced that they will increase oil production by 500,000 BOPD and then later stated that it would be their heavy crudes just what China needs for their power plants. Also a news item that the reason for our increase in inventory was due to fall off of 50,000 BOPD to China as well as cutback in driving here in the states.

"As to the 50,000 BOPD cutback imports to China that was a two month best guess and 50,000 Bbls of oil is probably more than the acceptable error in measuring the volumes sold. Certainly out of the 85,000,000 BOPD worldwide demand that is hardly an eye drop.

"The evidence of cutting back here is evident for when I go to Krogers to get my 10 cent per gallon discount I have to wait in line. Observing those in front of me purchase $5.00 worth , $12.00 worth and only one fill up in a young mans pickup that cost $50.00 while his head was spinning with disbelief. On the way home on Highway XXX a brand new Cadillac SUV was driving at 45 MPH with all the windows rolled down as he had cut speed and his air conditioner off to conserve fuel.

"Bush will be on CNBC all day tomorrow or least his story will be as to conservation and the need to develop domestic supplies plus attempts to explain some of his policies. He is always saying " I am looking forward to...." such as I am looking forward to the Popes Funeral" or " I am looking forward to stopping the filibuster" Also new story today that he is going to accelerate withdrawal from Iraq. On and on. The reason they are becoming so friendly with Clinton is they want inside information as to Impeachment."


The GAB: I thought others might be interested in taking a peek at correspondence which comes my way. Make your own judgement.

TownCrierInflation Watch: Consumer Prices Climb at Sharpest Rate in Two-and-a-Half Years#1314044/20/05; 11:02:10;jsessionid=O3T0TNWVLPJ3YCRBAE0CFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=8239813

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Another surge in energy costs helped push up U.S. prices in March, as underlying inflation climbed at the sharpest rate in 2-1/2 years, the Labor Department said on Wednesday.

The Consumer Price Index, widely used as a major gauge of inflation, was up 0.6 percent last month -- the sharpest monthly gain since October -- following a 0.4 percent rise in February.

...and on a more worrisome note, the so-called core rate that strips out volatile food and energy costs accelerated to a 0.4 percent increase in March from 0.3 percent in February.

Clothing costs climbed 0.8 percent in March, medical care costs were ahead 0.5 percent and airline fares shot up 2.7 percent...

^-----(from url)----^

How long before legislation is introduced to rename our dollar?

Calling it a 'peso' would at least alert citizens to their imminent peril and perhaps inspire them to prepare for the worst.

Diversify. Choose gold.


geUS's Rice says Russia should increase oil supply#1314054/20/05; 11:26:21

Federal_ReservesPolicy makers in "WASH"ington#1314064/20/05; 11:31:43

have done a create job on the economy! Record fiscal deficits and pork barrel spending, huge trade imbalances, skyrocketing wholesale and retail prices, housing price bubble, illegal aliens flooding the county, falling real wages, stagnate jobs, and a cruel new bankruptcy law which
turns the US into a qausi slave-based indentured debt prison.

How long will the American Public stand for this? Where is the outrage at Congress voting down an increase in the minimum wage while jacking up their own salaries and benefits? Where is the sanity?

Rocky$$$$435.4$$$$#1314074/20/05; 11:41:00

The Nightmare of runaway American Inflation is unlikely but is possible if the folks in Washington go completely brain dead. So far they don't appear totally dead! Devaluation of the dollar has continued in spite of their feeble efforts coupled with a little excess spending. This has driven inflation resulting in the current level of Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt. If such an event as NAI were allowed to occur, the POG could easily expand by a factor of ten in devalued dollars.
Dollar Bill.,.#1314084/20/05; 12:10:11

Methinks the new world order guys will keep the lid on gold throughout the ugly wave of inflation to come. The inflation will be soaring while the depression takes a increaseing bite out of more and more people. The stupid commies used to think you had to pol pot a country to clear out the only thing between humans and heaven on earth.....the only thing being -other people- who did not have the commie purity that would naturally emerge when people were guided right.
Ooops! they didnt figure on a devil in this life. And god for that matter!
In the same way, the globalists MUST have just assumed we would go through an ugly phase on our way to the new world order and they wont lose thier control of gold just cause the world gets screwy in a thousand ways.
If they do, the whole dang effort is lost......correct?
OPEC is not made of impossibly dumb guys, right? Just real risky gamblers? Taking bets that I, courtesy of my forum education, would not take!
None the less, clearly the big boys have signed on to the big gamble and have little option but to maintain, at the very least, control of gold. There must be some currency they are going to spring on us when the stuff really starts to get out of control. Just as the germans did to thier own folks. Using food production as the basis for confidence, the nwo will keep tabs on debt while decades proceed and as they move to the allowance system, will haggle over allowance issues bringing past debt into the picture as a factor in decisionmaking.
This is a one time era. We should marvel at it while we can.
I cant help but think that houses are the new tulips.

Dollar Bill.,.#1314094/20/05; 12:18:40

Oh, I do see gold going up, but not because of the inflation exactly, but of the failure of the nwo crowd to orchestrate this wild gamble. Hey, I give them credit for being imaginative......even if it fails, the rich got richer.......which was probably the fall back logic the gamblers took as they embarked on this.
Since the small guy is just the pawn in this.....and I am one.....the rich only have to wait till the depression takes hold and food becomes an issue more, and the poor start to sell thier jewelry and gold back to the rich. Think the rich will pay top dollar? I dont.
However, somewhere in the middle of all that, gold will hit a great high. And, if it all collapses, of course gold will resume its long term role. But, my guess is control control, then at some point breakthrough, and depending.........but at one point no matter what, I think the rich will conspire to take the gold from the regular guy during a depression cheaply. After that again gold will be highly valued.
Just day dreaming...

SurvivorThe Consumer As An Economic Prop#1314104/20/05; 12:27:43

On one hand, we see Anecdotal reports of individuals in the US depending on credit cards for everything from groceries to utility payments to tax payments. The conclusion made in these reports is usually that a large number of essential transactions wouldn't take place at all without the availability of easy and reliable credit.

On the other hand, each day brings another news report about yet another firm having had their customer credit data compromised by some form of intrusion or mis-direction.

I see a crisis looming here. What do you suppose will happen when the bottom drops out of credit-based consumerism not (only) because of debt load but because of a breakdown in the confidence of electronic transactions and the privacy of personal data?

Right now, concern for data privacy is focused primarily on the individual. The silence regarding the potential macro impact of this threat is deafening!

Hold physical gold. Its a no-brainer.

- Survivor

GoldiloxBankruptcy Bill#1314114/20/05; 12:50:27

Dubya has just signed the new Bankruptcy bill which in his own words, "strengthens the banking industry".

As he discusses his concern that too many debtors who walk away from debt can actually afford to repay, he makes no mention of the loopholes of offshore and asset protection trusts that protect the very wealthy by sheltering their wealth in corporate clothes.

Wow, they're even calling it the "Consumer Protection Act!"

GoldiloxMore Unrest in Ecuador#1314124/20/05; 13:04:51,0,6203460.story?coll=sns-ap-world-headlines


QUITO, Ecuador -- Protests demanding the ouster of President Lucio Gutierrez broke out across the capital Wednesday, a day after police firing tear gas dispersed tens of thousands of demonstrators trying to reach the Government Palace.

Gutierrez told The Associated Press on Tuesday that he has no intention of resigning.

"There is not the least possibility. I was elected for four years," he said hours before demonstrators tried to march to the palace. "My government ends in January 2007."

In a blow to Gutierrez's hopes of holding on to power, the head of Ecuador's national police force, Gen. Jorge Poveda, resigned.

"I regret what happened yesterday. I cannot continue to be a witness to the confrontation with the Ecuadorean people. I am not a violent man," he said.

The army reinforced security around the palace. Some 500 soldiers with assault rifles and tear gas canisters took up positions in the Plaza de Independencia in front of the palace, which was cordoned off with barbed wire.

On Wednesday, thousands of blue-uniformed high school students took to the streets to demonstrate against Gutierrez.


After already dismissing the entire Supreme Court on Monday, CNBC reports the Parliament is now calling for Gutierrez's resignation as well. This could get nasty.

DruidGoldilox (4/20/05; 12:50:27MT - msg#: 131411)#1314134/20/05; 13:24:18

Druid: Well, now that that legislation has been passed, you can make a few phone calls, unplug the circuit breakers, hand out bonuses for the yeomen's work that the PPT has been involved in and begin, in earnest, to take these markets down to make it a complete financial coup.

What a gig.

madmark$$$$$$$$$$ 441.20 $$$$$$$$$$$#13141404/20/05; 13:31:54

R PowellYGM#13141504/20/05; 13:53:35

Thanks for the Robert Service poem. He really was a outstanding wordsmith when painting images of the northland.
I remember one of his that you posted describing the funeral pyre promised to a dying miner from his partner, to fulfill the dying man's wish for warmth. Perhaps you might repost it for us sometime...?

R Powell $$$$$$$ 443.9 $$$$$$$$#1314164/20/05; 14:12:22

Past nightmarish currency inflations (deflation of purchasing power) have all occured when one country's currency deflated (very rapidly!) against other currencies. Does the possibility of a NAI still exist now that the US dollar has become a worldwide acceptable currency?

The US currency still possesses the ability to devalue in relation to other currencies and other tangibles and perhaps greatly so. But, if most of the major economies of the world are backed, at least in part, by USD obligations in circulation or held as reserves, against what will the whole world devalue this one world currency. Whatever this might be, would this possibility also possess the innate ability to devalue quickly (suddenly) enough to be comparable to history's previous nightmare currency devaluations?

I have no delusions about being anywhere near clarvoyant enough to guess at what dollar number gold may be valued as the currency weakens. Nor do I believe that the POG is 100% determined by the relative strength of paper money, which further complicates the issue. POG in the future?....Much higher than it is now!

GoldiloxDow 13 points from 10K, NASDog nears 1900#1314174/20/05; 14:12:50

Since it first crossed 10K, the Dow has transversed that mark 25 times up and 24 times down. Crossing number 50 is 13 points away after 500 points have melted away in the last week.

Even stellar earnings from Intel and Yahoo aren't stopping this tide.

Look out below!

All the shills are screaming buy, buy, buy, but no one is listening. I guess no one wants to take the losers off their hands.

Jim Cramer says "this market needs bad news to ensure that the FED takes a vacation. The stock market is being taken down by all the good news. This is entirely about the Federal reserve."

The insanity on CNBC is getting really animated!

What entertaining times we are beginning to witness.

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1314184/20/05; 14:15:02">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Wednesday market excerpts

April 20 (from DowJones) -- Comex gold futures extended their recent charge higher Wednesday thanks to continued U.S. dollar weakness and closed at their highest level in more than a month. The most active June contract settled $2.30 higher at $436.70.

The move brings June gold's gains for the past two days to $7.70 since Monday's close and has steered prices above the 100-day moving average for the first time since March 18.

"If the dollar's downwards momentum remains intact, and chart-based funds get drawn to the gold market by the recent strong performance, then a move to $440 could happen pretty fast," said a marketing manager for a precious metals-based hedge fund.

"Gold has decisively turned away from its lows and now looks nice from a technical standpoint so we're expecting more gains over the coming days," he argued.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market prices)----


U.S. inflation shoots up 0.6 per cent in March, most in five months

Consumer Prices Up, Unease Over Inflation

U.S. stocks fall, inflation worries weigh

Fed unfazed by US inflation despite uptick in prices

Inflation fears hit US stocks

U.S. stocks slide further on inflation worries

YGMR Powell...At your 'Service' Sir. :-)#1314194/20/05; 14:19:05

The Cremation of Sam McGee

There are strange things done in the midnight sun
By the men who moil for gold;
The Arctic trails have their secret tales
That would make your blood run cold;
The Northern Lights have seen queer sights,
But the queerest they ever did see
Was that night on the marge of Lake Lebarge
I cremated Sam McGee.

Now Sam McGee was from Tennessee, where the cotton blooms and blows.
Why he left his home in the South to roam 'round the Pole, God only knows.
He was always cold, but the land of gold seemed to hold him like a spell;
Though he'd often say in his homely way that he'd "sooner live in hell".

On a Christmas Day we were mushing our way over the Dawson trail.
Talk of your cold! through the parka's fold it stabbed like a driven nail.
If our eyes we'd close, then the lashes froze till sometimes we couldn't see;
It wasn't much fun, but the only one to whimper was Sam McGee.

And that very night, as we lay packed tight in our robes beneath the snow,
And the dogs were fed, and the stars o'erhead were dancing heel and toe,
He turned to me, and "Cap," says he, "I'll cash in this trip, I guess;
And if I do, I'm asking that you won't refuse my last request."

Well, he seemed so low that I couldn't say no; then he says with a sort of moan:
"It's the cursed cold, and it's got right hold till I'm chilled clean through to the bone.
Yet 'tain't being dead -- it's my awful dread of the icy grave that pains;
So I want you to swear that, foul or fair, you'll cremate my last remains."

A pal's last need is a thing to heed, so I swore I would not fail;
And we started on at the streak of dawn; but God! he looked ghastly pale.
He crouched on the sleigh, and he raved all day of his home in Tennessee;
And before nightfall a corpse was all that was left of Sam McGee.

There wasn't a breath in that land of death, and I hurried, horror-driven,
With a corpse half hid that I couldn't get rid, because of a promise given;
It was lashed to the sleigh, and it seemed to say:
"You may tax your brawn and brains,
But you promised true, and it's up to you to cremate those last remains."

Now a promise made is a debt unpaid, and the trail has its own stern code.
In the days to come, though my lips were dumb, in my heart how I cursed that load.
In the long, long night, by the lone firelight, while the huskies, round in a ring,
Howled out their woes to the homeless snows -- O God! how I loathed the thing.

And every day that quiet clay seemed to heavy and heavier grow;
And on I went, though the dogs were spent and the grub was getting low;
The trail was bad, and I felt half mad, but I swore I would not give in;
And I'd often sing to the hateful thing, and it hearkened with a grin.

Till I came to the marge of Lake Lebarge, and a derelict there lay;
It was jammed in the ice, but I saw in a trice it was called the "Alice May".
And I looked at it, and I thought a bit, and I looked at my frozen chum;
Then "Here," said I, with a sudden cry, "is my cre-ma-tor-eum."

Some planks I tore from the cabin floor, and I lit the boiler fire;
Some coal I found that was lying around, and I heaped the fuel higher;
The flames just soared, and the furnace roared -- such a blaze you seldom see;
And I burrowed a hole in the glowing coal, and I stuffed in Sam McGee.

Then I made a hike, for I didn't like to hear him sizzle so;
And the heavens scowled, and the huskies howled, and the wind began to blow.
It was icy cold, but the hot sweat rolled down my cheeks, and I don't know why;
And the greasy smoke in an inky cloak went streaking down the sky.

I do not know how long in the snow I wrestled with grisly fear;
But the stars came out and they danced about ere again I ventured near;
I was sick with dread, but I bravely said: "I'll just take a peep inside.
I guess he's cooked, and it's time I looked"; . . . then the door I opened wide.

And there sat Sam, looking cool and calm, in the heart of the furnace roar;
And he wore a smile you could see a mile, and he said: "Please close that door.
It's fine in here, but I greatly fear you'll let in the cold and storm --
Since I left Plumtree, down in Tennessee, it's the first time I've been warm."

There are strange things done in the midnight sun
By the men who moil for gold;
The Arctic trails have their secret tales
That would make your blood run cold;
The Northern Lights have seen queer sights,
But the queerest they ever did see
Was that night on the marge of Lake Lebarge
I cremated Sam McGee.

--- Robert Service

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Welcome newcomers -- you can buy gold without delay, or request our Introductory Info Packet to help get you started#1314204/20/05; 14:20:27">FREE Shipping!
GoldiloxInsider Trading#1314214/20/05; 14:21:41

Has anyone noticed the regular piece highlighting legal insider trading has vanished from CNBC? Methinks the rush to insider exit doors is too bloody to publish, and would not assist their efforts to find new bottom feeders to scarf up the carcasses.

Their latest poll - Has earnings season helped or hurt the market?

Maybe they'll have to stop publishing earnings as well.

DoubleEagle$$$$$ 1776.0 $$$$$#1314224/20/05; 14:22:03

The so called NAI is a very real possibility, and I don't know that it's such a bad idea. It would certainly go a long way toward grounding the outlook of your average American. My grandmother, despite being on a fixed income (thank god for Social Security), isn't worried at all, and she watches the news all day long. She's a survivor, and the great depression and WWII are still very real to her. Her generation did so well because they were steeped in the reality of their generation. My generation, however, has no clue. We grew up with credit cards and 50 television channels. Some will find that very hard to let go of. I, on the other hand, almost welcome it. Time for everyone to wake up and realize you can only consume as much as you work for.

As a side note, I don't think a NAI will last all that long, if it happens. It will be sharp and severe, and lead right into a depression that will rival the 30's. Just my gut talking.

Bottom Bouncer(No Subject)#1314234/20/05; 14:35:00

Topaz@G'Lox#1314244/20/05; 15:04:04

It's certainly confusing this "inflation" thingie.

Last eve, when they announced the China growth outstripping expectations, Cu and Al took off...which probably led to the spike in DX later in the day (haven't checked CRB but I bet it's UP!)
Now we see "inflation" is back on the Radar in US.

But is it REALLY inflation?

The BIG problem going forward is, or will be the "contraction" in those markets primarily supplied by China ie: the discretionaries rising prices in "essentials" suck the lifeblood from them.

The current economic landscape is FULL of punters ekeing a living from the disc market. These, AND China are in for a rough time methinks.

Max Rabbitz$$$$ 432.6 $$$$#1314254/20/05; 15:34:34

The price of one ounce of gold at the peak of Nightmare American Inflation will be one strong team of oxen. Not the fat lazy ones seen in children's farm animal zoos or museums of pioneer farm life. The ones that can turn over a couple acres of sod in a day. After dollars stop trading for oil the paper dollars will mostly be used for stuffing quilts to stay warm on those long cold winter nights. That's the physical dollars not the totally worthless digital ones. Get physical.
R PowellYGM // Equity fear?#1314264/20/05; 15:47:23

That's the one, thanks buddy. Read a ton of poetry in my youth but only now, with the passing years, do I seem to derive the proper enjoyment from the reading. And it doesn't cost a cent (other than the cost of my old age necessitated spectacles). (g)

Is that fear that I sense in the equities? The long slumber of the VIX seems to have ended last week. I remember when the equity index gains or loses appeared to move the POG, much as the relative dollar strength does now. Will that 50th crossing of Dow 10,000, on a downward course, spark a rise in gold (and silver!)?

Lothar of the Hill People$$$$$ 435.5 $$$$$$#1314274/20/05; 15:54:44

Lothar is not sure what consititutes NAI vice just plain ole inflation, but Lothar has experienced reduction of purchase power of legal tender and believes it can only get worse as the PTB continue to run the presses. The only questions is the rate. Lothar has consulted with the seers of the Hill people and they prophesy increases.

Fortunately for Lothar, the Hill people's great reserves and unending supply of great albino bat guano increase in value slightly above inflation. Plus, our greatest scientist are developing processes to make it an alternative power source for Lothar's SUV.

I am Lothar, of the Hill People. Fare ye well.

Boilermaker$$$$$$$438.1$$$$$$$#1314284/20/05; 15:55:07

That the US has passed the point of no return is a given for this humble goldbug. Financial corruption, corporate and governmental, is way above the scale of earlier cases such as triggered the depression of the 1930's. As for NAI in the good ole US, I'm not so certain. I think and assume that the financial powers will see the futility of feeding inflation and will opt instead for the heavy hand of price controls and rationing. With inflation you can still have free markets albeit turbulent ones. Our financial powers have already shown their hand by covertly "managing" key markets such as stocks, bonds and gold in order to stave off the day of reckoning. When things finally get out of control we are likely to get increased doses of overt market an financial regulation. The Feds will likely use tax legislation and the IRS to keep track of us. Of course this will stimulate a all sorts of black markets.

As for the price of gold, its $ value will have no meaning due to the complete uncertainty for the $. However, I believe that gold, seeking and refinding its long term purpose as the "global" store of wealth, must represent and insure the sum total of global currency and debt.

NedSo..........................#1314294/20/05; 16:10:32

...does the DOW bust 10k tomorrow?
The Invisible Handstep by step#1314304/20/05; 16:41:06

Iran has proposed a switch from the US dollar to the euro in the currency unit for oil exports by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Counties (OPEC)

Survivor******* $439.3 *******#1314314/20/05; 16:41:44

*** Is a Nightmare American Inflation (NAI) a possibility as America may have passed the point of no return. SOOO, What could be the price of gold at the NAI's PEAK and WHY ?" in 30 words or more. ***

Survivor: NAI is already a proven fact if you ask someone who has been on a fixed income for a decade or two. Is the more extreme nightmare of an inflation that brings the current fiat monetary system to its knees possible? I think not. The US monetary system runs on (among other things) very current data and a great number of controls. Even the cursed derivatives are a form of monetary control. I predict that the fiat monetary system will manipulate iteself into oblivion with a whimper rather than spin itself out of control with the big bang of a NAI.

Give or take the variable of demand at any given point in time, gold may see a dollar price that is consistent with the number of dollars it takes to buy what an ounce should be able to buy today. If the un-manipulated gold price today ought to be say, $700, and we were to see NAI of 1000% (or X10) then the NAI price of gold should be around $7000.

In the end though, I think demand for gold and silver as a form of solid currency will drive the actual price more than the digits associated with the inflation of fiat money.

WhitewaterwomanAnd now for a little bit of levity...#1314324/20/05; 17:08:59

...true confession: newbie that I am, when I entered the contest I didn't think about a June futures contract ending in April--for some reason, I was thinking it mean POG in June. Thus, my high guess...and that's what I meant by, "I think we'll be in Iran in June."

Nevermind. :)

Say, Mr. Gandalf, my Forex charts from early 2000 to now show the Euro in a huge upwards bull channel--thus, I'd look for a move up (and USD down) right about now. Does that sound right? Can't bear to bring myself to short the USD, so for me, gold and silver are the clear choices. Especially since they're "on sale".

GoldiloxIran and euro switch#1314334/20/05; 17:16:20

With the Saudi's staunchly against and Venezuela in agreement, this signals an interesting rift in OPEC solidarity.

As Iran sells mostly to Euro block countries (and now China, as well), it would seem they already get the majority of their proceeds in euros. This move perhaps is more a political statement meant to highlight the dollar's troubled fate as world reserve.

I would expect anti-Iran rhetoric will rapidly increase from the Washington oil barons as a reaction.

spikedog$$$$ 439.9 $$$$#1314344/20/05; 17:22:25

The NAI will happen when the major players on the world stage decide they no longer need the Dollar as a reserve currency - this will most likely be predicated on when America is no longer / can no longer sustain its consumption bender. For what use will the world have for America when it is no longer the consumer of last resort. Twill be a might hang over indeed.
GoldiloxMore Iran and Euro thoughts#1314354/20/05; 17:31:49

Rethinking my last post, another possibility is that the Iran announcement is meant to get the Asian block to increase their euro holdings for their business with Iran. If successful, it might accelerate the reserve rebalancing in Asian block countries that buy Iranian oil. They are definitely treading on thin ice if this second hypothesis is correct.

Might this statement have been issued in response to Sharon's Washington pow-wow?

Any way we look at it, the fire is being stoked.

Watch the dollar and gold for any response in the Nymex.

TownCrierDem. Party shows its colors?#1314364/20/05; 17:33:09;jsessionid=1CTQJZIORMRPACRBAEZSFFA?type=politicsNews&storyID=8243622

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sen. James Jeffords of Vermont, who infuriated fellow Republicans in 2001 when he bolted from the party and gave control of the U.S. Senate to Democrats, announced on Wednesday he will retire next year.

...independent socialist Representative Bernie Sanders, has in the past expressed interest in running if Jeffords retired. In a statement on Wednesday Sanders praised Jeffords but did not elaborate on his own intentions.

Sen. Charles Schumer of New York, head of the Senate Democrats campaign committee, said it is "very possible" that Democrats would back Sanders although it is "early days yet."

^------(from url)-----^

Pop quiz:

1) How many of the Founding Fathers were socialist?

2) Hoe many are turning over in their grave right around now?


TownCrierIraq's PM Allawi Survives Assassination Bid#1314374/20/05; 17:46:15;jsessionid=1CTQJZIORMRPACRBAEZSFFA?type=topNews&storyID=8243971

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's caretaker prime minister survived an assassination attempt by a suicide bomber on Wednesday on the eve of an expected announcement of a new government, as insurgent violence regained momentum.

One policeman was killed in the blast and four were wounded, police said.

Allawi, who escaped assassination by Saddam Hussein's agents while in exile in London, was seen as a tough prime minister, imposing emergency laws in a bid to crush the insurgency.

The shooting of 19 Iraqi National Guardsmen at a soccer stadium north of Baghdad and President Jalal Talabani's account of 50 bodies being hauled from a river near the capital indicated a revival in violence despite a relative lull after Jan. 30 elections.

^------(from url)-----^

Gold certainly holds its own in times of unrest, but it remains my conviction that "you ain't seen nothin' yet" -- that all it will take is a little global return to old fashioned peace and prosperity for gold to attain its proper heights. As it currently shapes out, many would-be buyers are strapped, and monetary managers have a redoubled incentive to try to mute gold's price signals at any such time as we stand near the brink of political or economic crisis.


Cavan ManHi Randy#1314384/20/05; 17:50:57

Until the election of 1800, the "founding fathers" were simply patriots do the right thing in the best interest of their country. Political affiliations, at least until about 1800 were unknown. They were all simply, AMERICANS. Those were the good old days. Further, it is my opinion backed by the considerable WEIGHT of entitlements and government interference in aspects of our lives that need NO governement intervention that socialism is a relative concept; that socialism is a matter of degrees. Here in the USA, we do live in a relative social democracy whether we understand our political context or not. 'Tis better for the avowed republicans to turn off talk radio and to get understanding rather than group think disorientation. We're all going to need clear thinking whilst rowing the boat we're in. We're not in Cape Girardeau anymore.

Constitutional Conservative

GoldiloxSummary of the last week's top ten events#1314394/20/05; 17:54:02

1. Sharon visits Bush for talks
2. Dow loses 500 points, NASDAQ falls well under 2000
3. "Consumer Protection Bill" (bankruptcy limitations) is passed and signed
4. Iran asks for Euros in payment for oil
5. Gold rises $10 (is that all?)
6. Oil rebounds off of $50 support levels
7. Gasoline remains at high levels
8. Florida house unanimously passes "permanent" electronic monitoring bill
9. Patriot Acts up for review (with almost no public debate)
10. Fifteen NYSE specialists indicted

I feel SOOO much more secure! So far, the only thing that has made me feel better in the last week is when my bank teller said she was required to leave the room before I examined my safe deposit box.

SmeagolMy O my, there's ssome fine reading today!#1314404/20/05; 18:00:07

Ssir YGM... what a sstrange place to ssee the poem of the cremation of Sam McGee... they had us read that in grade school (sseems a very long time ago!)... we even remembers making a drawing about it.

In our net-walking we found a "golden" link that led to a book, "The Coming Battle", by M.W. Walbert....sss.. ssome of you here may know it, but it was news to us. It was written a little over a hundred years ago, but the ink may as well sstill be fresh... it is enthralling, a Hisstory of the rise of the money-powers in America and the great battles that took place between the bankssters and (ssome of) the Founders and those who came later... we highly recommend ssaving and ssavouring it, it reads like Locke's article in the Archives. THISS is what needs to be taught in school!


BoilermakerPolitical Crisis in Mexico#1314414/20/05; 18:00:50

"MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexican prosecutors asked a court on Wednesday to order the arrest of a left-wing mayor leading opinion polls for the 2006 presidential election in a minor legal dispute that is creating a political crisis.
Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a former Indian rights activist who is Mexico's most popular politician, could be behind bars within days if the court rules against him.
"The judge now has 10 working days to decide," an official at the attorney general's office said.
Lopez Obrador could be banned from the election if found guilty of disobeying a judge's order in 2001 to halt work on expropriated land in the city.
He says he committed no crime and has vowed to try to run as a candidate from jail."

I wonder if this is a precurser for a new socialist era in Mexico's neighbor to the north.

GoldiloxFounding Fathers musings#1314424/20/05; 18:03:41

The great experiment found one of its earliest "revisions" in the idea that the Vice-president is elected on the same ticket as the Prez. The founding fathers wanted the runner-up to hold the vice-presidency as a major check and balance of power.

Winner-take-all was not their idea of a working democracy.

Having heard the story of Congressman Davy Crockett's reaction to the revolutionary war widows and veterans fund, I can just imagine his reaction to SSI, gold confiscation, and the Patriot Acts.

We've come a long way from there for sure!

GoldiloxThe Coming Battle#1314434/20/05; 18:07:31

I found this as well about a year ago. I was fortunate to download an electronic version I still refer to today.

It's definitely worth the read.

At that time I was studying more about the populist movement and the silver vs. gold wars in the political spectrum.

I never heard any of this in school either. I guess they were too busy telling me about George Washington and his cherry tree.

BoilermakerBankruptcy Bill#1314444/20/05; 18:07:52

"Many debtors will have to work out repayment plans instead of having their obligations erased in bankruptcy court under the law, which will go into effect in six months. The 500-page legislation won final congressional approval last week after being pushed for eight years by banks and credit card companies."

There's bound to be some devils in that 500 page detail. I nominate TC to sort it out for us. :)

Black Blade$$$$438.10$$$$#1314454/20/05; 18:17:29

American is running flat out toward the "inflation abyss". The only way to pay off all the foreign held debt is to devalue the US Dollar and leave the foreign bankers and investor holding the bag. The reason for this is quite clear. In short it boils down to having "passed the point of no return" as the accumulation of soaring trade, current account, and budget deficits are far beyond the ability of repayment or even coming within sight of parity. Also, as long as there is an aversion to allowing the return of deflation to in order to bring the US currency to some sane level of value it is a foregone conclusion that we will have a growing inflationary spiral – and without the ability to reign in the soaring triple deficits and fighting a competitive currency devaluation (aka "currency war"), it is much too easy to fall off this tight-wire act into a hyperinflationary spiral as confidence in the US Dollar wanes.

- Black Blade

Black Blade@Biolermaker ... all#1314464/20/05; 18:22:44

With the signing of this Bankruptcy Bill which I support to a point as it is only right that people be held accountable and take personal responsibility - there are people who game the system (I even know a few).

Also, it becomes ever more clear as to why I have been teaching, preaching, and screeching - "get outta debt and stay outta debt, stash enough emergency cash for household expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver "portfolio insurance", and to start a storage program for nonperishable food and basic necessities". It is rather straight forward in common sense IMO.

- Black Blade

TownCrierBoilermaker, the 500-page eye-withering nomination#1314474/20/05; 18:32:04

Bottomline: How much weaker the dollar would be were the effort not made to pull slack from whatever quarter out of bankruptcy declarations.

After all, money -- that is to properly mean the monetary device -- is no stronger than the aggregate effort and will to service the obligations undertaken in a currency's denomination.

But in the end, try as they might -- rollover, refinance, renegotiate, renege -- a 'peso' by any other name is still a 'peso', and the long-term trend is down.

That's why I choose gold for my savings.


GoldiloxBankruptcy Bill#1314484/20/05; 18:34:07

I gotta go, so just a quick one. The BB (bankruptcy bill) lost an important exemption for soldiers bankrupted by foreign service and elederly hit with huge medical catastrophes not covered by insurance or Medicare.

I am not against the priciple submitted by BB (from Dubya's speech), but there is lessened penaties for predatory lending practices and no provisions for catatrophic medical. Something inside me says it is wrong to throw someone into the street or getting sick and having their retirement insurance cut off.

Also, the 30% cap on interest for credit cards (on first late payment of a 0.9% advertised rate) seems a bit much, as well.

R PowellPhysicalman#13144904/20/05; 18:59:57

Good to hear from you again. And this sentence certainly caused a double take.....

"Have been buying all the physical offered to me for many months and with the purchase today of a 100,50 and 10 oz. bar have hit my goal of 20 metric tonnes of ag."

Wow! And, may I ask, just how many ounces are there in 20 metric tonnes? (G)

Toolie$$$$ $431.5 $$$$#13145004/20/05; 19:10:22

Wow… tough question. NAI is a possibility. Given the nature of the global economy – in which so many adversaries, each working from their particular point of strength, aim to unseat the dollar as the reserve standard. And that that the dollars main strength as a currency (imho) is its wide use, the temptation will be to continue expanding the number of dollars. SOOO, POG "could" reach some lofty levels… $20,000/oz. "could" happen. And it seems that the longer that I look at that figure, and consider a $800 pog in 1980, all the inflation since then, all the lost productive capacity, competing in a more developed world, the cheaper it looks.

Here's one for Federal Reserves: Considering some of the responses to Gandalf's question has me more nervous than a long tailed cat in a room full of rockin’ chairs

Black BladeGoldilox - Bankruptcy Bill#13145104/20/05; 19:19:35

I agree that there is a lot to be done. Preditory lending practices are a growing concern for all demographics. I would love to see some powerful legislation to go after these profiteering criminal bankers. For example I also would like to see the colleges and universities prevent credit card companies from setting up booths on campus preying on young uninitiated students. every week I must get five or six "pre-approved" credit card applications and maybe one or two loan applications. On the other hand I have a very strong aversion to taking on credit and pay for most everything in cash - even my autos (which ticks off the dealers who look forward to the usual kickback... errr... commission... from the creditor).

Just stay outta debt to begin with. If you need a car then use your old one as long as possible or buy a cheap beater if you can't afford a newer model. Buy clothes at a second hand store or a warehouse outlet - I am probably the least fashionable person out there. I even buy very cheap clothes at the Army Surplus as well as various other items. There is no need to buy a "new" or "used" house if the old one is still functional.

A good book to read is "The Millionaire Next Door". The vast majority of wealthy people in the US live very common lives and live very cheaply squirreling away a few shekels here and there letting it grow and refusing to take on debt. They shop at discount stores and buy in bulk. they drive old cars. They clothe their children in bargain basement clothing. In short they don't try to "keep up with the Jones", even though they could and more. They got ahead by being tightwads.

My father and late mother had Medicare but also had a "cheap" complimentary medical insurance to cover expenses that Medicare didn't (although my father also has Tri-Care). There are other programs to help in this regard aside from the usual local, state, Federal and industry grant programs for presriptions and medical care. One that comes to mind right away is the "reverse mortgage" program enabling seniors to supplement SS and provide the necessities of aging while continuing to live in their homes. There are several other programs and many can be found at the local Senior Center or Community affairs offices.

Live is not always easy and that is why I learned early on about the pitfalls of taking on debt. Fortunately I learned most of those lessons vicariously and those lessons spurred me on to higher education and a resolve to avoid debt as much as possible, to save cash, buy cheaply, and to pinch pennies. I even buy my Silver and Gold when I have spare cash and preferably by "dollar cost averaging". I keep about a year's supply of nonperishable food and rotate the inventory as I use and replace it.

People like you and me should not be subsidizing stupidity in the form of higher costs incurred by bankruptcy filings. Some people are just morons and they get into debt by living far beyond their means. I agree that some people can and do get into financial trouble by circumstances that are beyond their control and should be given a pass when necessary, but a large growing number of people have "gamed" the system and that has hurt everyone as those costs are passed along to people like you and me. As I see the current Bankruptcy Bill it does not mean that there is no way to file bankruptcy when all options have been exhausted - it just requires and compells people to make every possible effort to live up to their obligations.

- Black Blade

Waverider$$$$$ 5,550.50 $$$$$#13145204/20/05; 19:37:31

Of course NAI will happen and when it does TIH and I will win a Price guessing competition...meanwhile, I will keep him company so he doesn't get lonely!
Gandalf the WhiteThe "KIN G of the HILL" report for Wednesday !! <;-)#13145304/20/05; 20:03:18

Sir TC says:
April 20 (from DowJones) -- Comex gold futures extended their recent charge higher Wednesday thanks to continued U.S. dollar weakness and closed at their highest level in more than a month. The most active June contract settled $2.30 higher at $436.70.
$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ commish (4/12/05; 22:46:35MT - msg#: 131135)
THE FIRST ENTRY !! (IF I remember correctly )
Congrats -- HANG in there !

Bottom BouncerPOG &NAI#13145404/20/05; 20:11:08


Being in the shadows most of my life and on this site I figure why not. NAI? Honestly cannot see it happening like it did in the 1980 but who really knows. With the US consuming 2 billion external dollars aday with no end insight some very interesting days, weeks are ahead.

Pay close attention to the French vote in May for the Euro, found it interesting the Iranians want euro's now for oil but then again so did Saddam and I followed his lead and still hold that position to this day. So who knows what is coming but I do know it shall be interesting.

innerline$$$$$439.0$$$$$#13145504/20/05; 20:11:12

We have gone past the point of no return. I see a very fast deflation since money is a medium of exchange then a NAI. At the peak I think POG will be like 6000 with everyone not knowing the value after that.
Black BladeMarket Wrapup - Hartman#13145604/20/05; 20:11:22



Throughout the morning, the broad stock averages tried valiantly to add to yesterday's gains amid strong corporate earnings reports, but fears of higher interest rates took center stage today. Right out of the gate stocks opened higher, especially technology shares, with good reports coming from Intel and Yahoo after the bell yesterday. There were solid earnings reports from a number of different sectors, but the Labor Department spoiled the party with the CPI showing worse than expected inflation data. Consensus expectations for the headline number was for a gain of 0.5% and the reported number was 0.6%, while the core-rate came in with a gain of 0.4%, double analysts expectations of 0.2%. The bond market sold-off immediately driving interest rates higher, but buying came right back into Treasuries as the stock market began selling-off through the lunch hour. Stock market bulls are looking for a rally here after the brutal sell-off last week, but if these corporate earnings aren't enough to bait investors back into stocks, what will it take?

Gold and silver added to yesterday's gains and Dr. Copper moved higher by 2.4% to $1.507 a pound telling us this commodity boom is very far from over. What seemed to bother the bulls on CNBC was the fact that we have very obvious signs of an economic slowdown, but it is mixed with rising inflation…that is where they coined the term "stagflation."

Silver supply has been in deficit to demand for about 14 years, as the market lives off existing above ground inventories to supplement the lack of mine supply. Gold supply is decreasing, especially as miners in South Africa close non-profitable operations. We have not invested enough money for infrastructure to meet our growing needs for natural gas. A Bloomberg article today says, "U.S. imports of LNG increased 27% last year, and probably will rise another 20% this year, according to U.S. Energy Department data. Imports may increase another 49% next year, the agency forecasts." My interpretation of that sentence is pretty simple; we don't have enough! We need more natural gas, but guess what…China is building a fleet of LNG carrier ships to secure their own supply and India wants to build a gas pipeline from Iran to India. Competition is increasing for available energy supplies.

Black Blade: Damn straight! I have been hammering the "Stagflation" message for some time. The pressures are pent up and it won't take much for the flood gates to burst open. One nice piece of adice for "Stagflation" - Gold and Silver and lots of it!

Gandalf the WhiteAttn: Sir Spikedog ----#13145704/20/05; 20:14:38

OOPS --- Sorry Sir Spikedog --- I had to make an ADJUSTMENT.
spikedog (4/20/05; 17:22:25MT - msg#: 131434)
$$$$ 439.9 $$$$
That number had been PREVIOUSLY chosen.

shawnis$$$$$$$$$$439.7$$$$$$$$$$$$$#13145804/20/05; 20:15:14

We are already in the Nightmare American Inflation right now. It started with the creation of the Federal Reserve. The nightmare belongs to all of us, but is being managed by those who are causing it. Most Americans are really unaware of just how precarious things truly are but I think the Feds know. The current stage started around 2000 and will end with the bursting of the real estate bubble.

Why the real estate bubble? Because real estate is viewed as a "sure thing" and when that goes it'll cause people to question EVERYTHING, including our currency.

Gandalf the WhiteOOPS --- Et tu Black Blade#13145904/20/05; 20:18:33

Black Blade (4/20/05; 18:17:29MT - msg#: 131445)
I have you HUGGING Sir Boilermaker !

Black BladeReal Estate Bubble Deflating?#13146004/20/05; 20:18:50


Mortgage Applications Decreased Last Week

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Applications for U.S. home mortgages decreased last week, as purchasing and refinancing activity fell despite lower interest rates on loans, an industry group said on Wednesday.

U.S. housing starts posted their steepest drop in more than 14 years, plunging 17.6 percent in March, to a 1.837 million unit rate from an upwardly revised 2.229 million unit pace in February, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday.

Black Blade: Could be interesting as many investors after having been burned by the bubble had switched to the real estate sector and bought homes with gusto pouring in every last penny. The fun part is when the music stops and we see who is left standing without a chair.

Black Blade@Gandy#13146104/20/05; 20:22:27

I missed that. Oh well - push me up a dime or until the next available slot is open.

- Black Blade

Black BladeKalifornia Real Estate Bursting?#13146204/20/05; 20:26:44


With housing starts posting their biggest monthly decline in 14 years last month, many are wondering if slowdown in the nation's red-hot housing market is now emerging. One part of the country showing some signs of cooling is California. The Golden State's sizzling real estate market has seen double-digit appreciation rates in most of its metropolitan areas in recent years, and some economists have even warned that the state's housing market is a bubble waiting to burst, although such an event remains a matter of debate.

Black Blade: It's only a matter of time.


POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 4/20/05, WEDNESDAY at 21:23+ Denver time

REMEMBER that the Entry DEADLINE is at MIDNIGHT today !!! Tick Tock TICK TOCK !!!!!!!

BASIS of Question -- (In keeping with the spirit of the German 20 mark coin and referring to the Nightmare German Inflation (NGI) report as seen at the above LINK for educational purposes.) --

The QUESTION -- (Put on your THINKING HATS !)
Is a Nightmare American Inflation (NAI) a possibility as America may have passed the point of no return. SOOO, What could be the price of gold at the NAI's PEAK and WHY ?" in 30 words or more.

Entries listed in order of decending values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (4/13/05; 18:05:18MT - msg#: 131160)

$$$$5,550.5$$$$ Waverider (04/20/05; 19:37:31MT - msg#: 131452)

$$$$1,776.0$$$$ DoubleEagle (4/20/05; 14:22:03MT - msg#: 131422)

$$$$ $474.1 $$$$ Beamer (4/17/05; 01:40:45MT - msg#: 131261)

$$$$ $462.0 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (4/14/05; 09:16:26MT - msg#: 131173)

$$$$ $452.0 $$$$ Dollar Bill (4/20/05; 12:10:11MT - msg#: 131408)

$$$$ $451.2 $$$$ mikal (4/14/05; 23:59:56MT - msg#: 131195)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Goldilox (4/12/05; 23:58:41MT - msg#: 131136)

$$$$ $443.9 $$$$ R Powell (4/20/05; 14:12:22MT - msg#: 131416)

$$$$ $443.4 $$$$ Buongiorno! (4/19/05; 13:10:47MT - msg#: 131361)

$$$$ $442.1 $$$$ Henri (4/13/05; 11:07:18MT - msg#: 131147)

$$$$ $441.8 $$$$ The Hoople (4/20/05; 10:08:18MT - msg#: 131401)

$$$$ $441.2 $$$$ madmark (04/20/05; 13:31:54MT - msg#: 131414)

$$$$ $441.0 $$$$ Chally (04/19/05; 10:43:31MT - msg#: 131346)

$$$$ $440.8 $$$$ Rimh (04/20/05; 09:45:46MT - msg#: 131398)

$$$$ $440.5 $$$$ Yukon (4/19/05; 22:57:09MT - msg#: 131388)

$$$$ $440.0 $$$$ Sundeck (4/18/05; 22:48:39MT - msg#: 131328)
$$$$ $439.9 $$$$ PNB (4/17/05; 04:17:48MT - msg#: 131262)
$$$$ $439.8 $$$$ Bottom Bouncer (4/20/05; 14:35:00MT - msg#: 131423)
$$$$ $439.7 $$$$ shawnis (04/20/05; 20:15:14MT - msg#: 131458)
$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ spikedog (4/20/05; 17:22:25MT - msg#: 131434)
$$$$ $439.5 $$$$ goldenpeace (4/19/05; 12:46:16MT - msg#: 131359)

$$$$ $439.3 $$$$ Survivor (4/20/05; 16:41:44MT - msg#: 131431)

$$$$ $439.0 $$$$ innerline (04/20/05; 20:11:12MT - msg#: 131455)

$$$$ $438.8 $$$$ Bottom Bouncer (04/20/05; 20:11:08MT - msg#: 131454)

$$$$ $438.5 $$$$ Bulldog (4/14/05; 12:50:53MT - msg#: 131178)

$$$$ $438.1 $$$$ Boilermaker (4/20/05; 15:55:07MT - msg#: 131428)
$$$$ $438.0 $$$$ Black Blade (4/20/05; 18:17:29MT - msg#: 131445)

$$$$ $437.7 $$$$ YGM (4/20/05; 00:32:10MT - msg#: 131390)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ OvS (4/16/05; 14:41:41MT - msg#: 131248)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ commish (4/12/05; 22:46:35MT - msg#: 131135)

$$$$ $436.3 $$$$ balzac (4/19/05; 18:25:40MT - msg#: 131376)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ Rustee (4/13/05; 09:58:16MT - msg#: 131144)

$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (4/20/05; 15:54:44MT - msg#: 131427)
$$$$ $435.4 $$$$ Rocky (4/20/05; 11:41:00MT - msg#: 131407)

$$$$ $435.0 $$$$ Clink! (4/19/05; 07:14:45MT - msg#: 131333)

$$$$ $434.6 $$$$ arbyh (4/17/05; 07:59:44MT - msg#: 131267)

$$$$ $434.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (4/13/05; 09:58:54MT - msg#: 131145)

$$$$ $434.0 $$$$ Gonlyold (04/18/05; 21:33:56MT - msg#: 131326)

$$$$ $433.3 $$$$ Gandalf the White (04/18/05; 20:40:44MT - msg#: 131324)

$$$$ $432.6 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (4/20/05; 15:34:34MT - msg#: 131425)

$$$$ $432.1 $$$$ Smeagol (4/13/05; 17:20:02MT - msg#: 131159)

$$$$ $431.5 $$$$ Toolie (04/20/05; 19:10:22MT - msg#: 131450)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ Felix the Cat (4/19/05; 01:02:06MT - msg#: 131329)

$$$$ $430.5 $$$$ jimbojim39 (4/17/05; 08:45:42MT - msg#: 131269)

$$$$ $428.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (4/17/05; 04:54:11MT - msg#: 131263)

$$$$ $428.7 $$$$ slingshot (4/15/05; 06:16:47MT - msg#: 131196)

$$$$ $427.5 $$$$ 2023 (4/13/05; 07:47:34MT - msg#: 131141)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (4/13/05; 03:16:49MT - msg#: 131139)

$$$$ $425.0 $$$$ DryWasher (4/17/05; 08:39:09MT - msg#: 131268)

$$$$ $423.5 $$$$ Liberty Head (4/14/05; 20:11:28MT - msg#: 131189)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Federal_Reserves (4/13/05; 16:59:33MT - msg#: 131158)

$$$$ $417.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (4/16/05; 22:57:23MT - msg#: 131258)

$$$$ $415.5 $$$$ mackattack (4/17/05; 00:46:36MT - msg#: 131260)



1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) June 2005 Gold Contract (GCM5) on the date of Friday, April 22, 2005.

2) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $444.4)

3) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $444.4 $$$$$$$ )

4) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! FIRST COME has rights to that "Guess".

5) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Wednesday, April 20, 2005.

6) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will need to have a 30 word paragraph, or more, discussing
"THE Nightmare American Inflation QUESTION". <===== NOTE !!!

SmeagolHmmm... "Sir JS"'s NAI Contesst Guess / Entry?#13146404/20/05; 20:26:51

We thinks he would want in too and figured
$$$$$$ 480.0 $$$$$$
might be his besst guess? (grin, wink)

"A few salient points:

1. Liquidity is the placement of cash into the hands of financial institutions - not businesses or the common man.
2. Those financial entities will put this new found cash to work in some form or another.
3. It is normal that their first target will always be the equities market.
4. The positive action of the equity markets impacts the decision making powers of the consumer and the companies that provide them with consumer products.
5. The positive decisions of consumers and producers will produce a recovery in economic indices.
6. In time, this liquidity - sensing that the equities market should be distributed and profits taken - will begin to accumulate cash again.
7. As cash is accumulated by the now Fatter Cats, it transitions to the commodities market with positive basic fundamentals.
8. For sometime, both the equity and commodities markets move up in tandem.
9. The cost of basic goods increase and profits are reduced as the cost of goods produced climb.

In normal circumstances, the Fed steps in draining liquidity in the traditional sense thereby increasing the cost of money and killing the entire party.

However, now the international explosion of liquidity cannot in any practical sense be drained, so anything with a clear fundamental case in commodities will be blasted to the moon beyond the capacity and knowledge of talking heads to understand. No one outside of you will understand why this locomotive of inflation, which does not depend on business activity, can be blunted in its power or impact on prices by interest rates.

Now you have to add currencies to the game because this is the largest of all markets into which this liquidity must go. So those currencies with positive fundamentals will go up beyond reason and those with negative fundamentals will go down beyond reason.

This is why I have been saying against all other advisors that the currency market is the most fundamental of all markets. Here the fundamentals will flatten the technicals, bottom callers, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, soothsayers and anybody else that assumes any short covering rally is meaningful or long term.

Interest rates have NO ability whatsoever to blunt anything except the hope of a reduction in the US Federal Budget Deficit. They only serve as another tax on the consumer and business and thereafter on individual income and corporate profits. Therefore, there is no question in my mind about the US dollar plunging below .8000. That being said, gold is going to $480 and $529 and in time to $1650."

Gandalf the WhiteOOPS !!!#13146504/20/05; 20:28:34

I mean 20:23 !

Black BladeGasoline prices fuel US inflation #13146604/20/05; 20:33:54


The core rate of US inflation has risen at its steepest rate in two-and-a-half years, fuelled by a sharp rise in gasoline (petrol) prices.

Black Blade: We haven't seen anything yet. Those who have been following the "energy debate" and "peak oil" issues as I have posted here and elsewhere, know that we are in for an economic calamity caused by record energy prices that will make the energy crises of the 1970's and 1980's seem like the golden days. Speaking of Golden - that is one way to hedge against the the coming energy crises. I have made off with a fist full of Argentinos offered here at the USAGOLD Castle. Heck, not that many were made and fewer still left lying about.

Guided$$$$$$ $441.50 $$$$$$$#13146704/20/05; 20:33:57

Nightmare American inflation? I don't see that happening. It's really not in the power brokers best interest. At least not like the German wheelbarrow load for a loaf. It'll be more like the frog in the frying pan. We'll just keep giving up more dollar purchasing power, jobs and freedoms (not in order of importance), as the days turn into years. These people (with few exceptions) running our country have made too many deals, and we are now paying for them.
The one thing I know about money is that gold will always bring it out and the cheapening of our dollar by these wheeler dealers in Washington will only require more dollars for less gold.
Plan accordingly and you and your family will be OK.

Black BladeGandy - Thanks#13146804/20/05; 20:35:31

That works!

- Black Blade

Shermag$$$$438.3$$$$#13146904/20/05; 20:41:01

A NAI is a definite possibility, and likely a high probability (notwithstanding that all fiat currencies eventually inflate to worthlessness). Given the accelerating liquidity, and the attendant rising debt levels in all sectors of the economy, it is hard to envision an end that is not either a deflationary collapse or an inflationary spiral. In other words, we have gone past the point of no return to avoid either of those outcomes. I might add that my bets are placed on an inflationary result.

As to the price of gold in dollars at the end of such an event, well you might be looking at billions or trillions per ounce if the Weimar experience is any guide.

Black BladeSlower Growth Won't Stop Fed's Rate Increase#13147004/20/05; 20:42:39


April 20 (Bloomberg) -- For months Federal Reserve officials have been telling market participants to watch incoming economic data for clues about what likely lies ahead for monetary policy. The officials probably should have warned everyone not to jump to conclusions. Certainly Fed officials themselves haven't seen convincing evidence that the U.S. economy is about to take the nosedive that some analysts have concluded has begun as a result of higher energy prices.

Fed Governor Donald L. Kohn acknowledged that the persistence of higher energy prices ``may have a cumulating effect on spending, early hints of which might now be showing up in the latest reading on retail sales.'' Absent that, and some other restraining forces, such as a cooling housing market, growth would be even stronger, he said.

Economist Paul Krugman of Princeton University said the country is ``not back to the economic misery of the 1970s'' when it suffered from a serious case of stagflation -- a combination of high inflation and high unemployment. ``What few seem to have noticed, however, is that a mild form of stagflation -- rising inflation in an economy still well short of full employment -- has already arrived,'' he wrote.

Black Blade: Interesting.

7nomads$$$$$$443.0$$$$$$#13147104/20/05; 20:58:24

Great Prize USAGOLD has. Of course I've got a 200 mark coin. 1923 I think, 20 years younger that a good 20 mark gold coin, but alumium doesn't cut it. Yes, 10 times the marks and al for au. Nightmare of Inflation.

Nightmare inflation is easy to predict. Look for indexing. Israel was a good example. Pay, prices, government payments all indexed in the 80's. A few guys I know used to make a million a year until they cut off the last three zeros and called it a new shekel.

I don't think we will see a Nightmare of Inflation in America. The reason is the debt. No one has enough borrowing left to inflate prices. Also, we don't index prices. So it's the recession road we go. This is of course unless the government starts giving away money (out of helicopters, not the way they do it now).

Not getting rich, but getting by.

Beer Man$$$$$$ $437.9 $$$$$$#13147204/20/05; 21:03:57

$$$$$$ $437.9 $$$$$ N. A. I. Is possible if an economic war break's out in full . I don' think it will happen too soon, but it will get bad. The sad part is that many people I know don't have a clue..... " not one man in a million will be able to diagnose " ..... The solution is simple .... don't EAT or use FUEL & all is well !!!!! Got Gold ???? P.S. Many thank's to all poster's , I have been reading here for year's & find many gold nugget's worth of knowledge
GoldendomeDouble entry book-keeping.#13147304/20/05; 21:04:09

Sir Gandy: Which of Sir Bottom Bouncer's two contest entries is the "official"?
Smeagol(we wonders, does GATA know?)#13147404/20/05; 21:10:31

( it jusst us, precious... or has anyone else noticed that whenever there's a Contesst, the price of It startss bouncing around... it's almosst as if... no, you can't be seriouss, precious... well, why not, if the price of It can be manipulated, why not to WIN a little bit of It?
...then again, it's probably the Hounds getting excited when Ssir Gandalf blows the Contesst Horn...yess...that musst be it...


Black BladeEnergy futures up after data #13147504/20/05; 21:12:17{4B85F371-9238-4BA0-BE35-CE77972B5196}&siteid=mktw


DALLAS (MarketWatch) - Crude and its products added to gains Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange after the Energy Department and the American Petroleum Institute reported an unexpected drop in U.S. crude and gasoline supplies.

Black Blade: One thing often overlooked by Wall Street pundits is that even though we have more oil and distillates in inventory we also have higher demand amid greater global competition. Another thing is that more of our oil in inventory is heavy and heavy sour crude where our refineries are mostly set up to refine light sweet making the oil in inventory rather useless for most. Even if it could all be refined as needed, we have only 21 days of demand on oil as opposed to what would have been 23 days worth - all in spite of having more oil in inventory. Drilling activity is running flat out with nearly every available drill rig and yet we can't keep pace. Even Saudi has doubled the rig fleet to no avail. The tread mill is spinning and the hamster is in cardiac arrest!

Black BladeThe Dollar Danger#13147604/20/05; 21:16:08


TREASURY Secretary John W. Snow did his best to sound serious over the weekend about the fault lines in the world economy. He called on China to stop pegging its currency to the dollar, a reform intended to allow the Chinese currency to rise, easing the flood of cheap exports that contributes to the record U.S. trade deficit. At the same time, Mr. Snow promised cuts in the U.S. budget deficit, which would reduce the nation's consumption, including the consumption of imports; Japan and the European Union were urged to promote growth, which would suck in U.S. exports. All of these reforms are intended to bring the nation's trade deficit back toward balance. If they fail, markets may cut the trade deficit in their own blunt way -- via a precipitous collapse of the dollar.

Black Blade: And John Snow is the man pushing the so-called "strong dollar policy".

Beer ManN.A.I. addendum#13147704/20/05; 21:18:30

As to the price of gold should T. S. H. T. Fan ?? I kind of like $30,000 FRN's .......
Black BladeChina's growth rate hits 9.5 percent in first quarter #13147804/20/05; 21:26:00


SHANGHAI Soaring exports and strong investment in new apartment buildings and office towers helped the Chinese economy grow at an annual rate of 9.5 percent in the first quarter, considerably stronger than expected and faster than the government's target rate of 8 percent, China's statistics agency announced on Wednesday.

Black Blade: I am sure we know what a growing economy in China means for the global supply of energy. The competition for oil among the emerging Third World is putting pressure on limited energy supplies. China has made deals for oil over the last three weeks with Venezuela, Iran, and our neighbors to the north - Canada. the Chinese even bought into a new Canadian oil pipeline to deliver Alberta oil to the west coast for offloading. Looks like China expects to grow its economy by leaps and bounds. And close on their heels - India!

GoldendomeGolden Brew#13147904/20/05; 21:30:08

Sir Beer Man, Yes! You are needed here! Another "Kokanee," if you please.
Black BladeGermany to Be Sued Over Unpaid Gold Bonds#13148004/20/05; 21:36:55


FRANKFURT, Germany, April 20--A group of international investors holding German gold-backed bonds issued in the 1920s said on Tuesday they would sue for $7.8 billion in compensation, saying the bonds were never repaid, Reuters reported.

The group, led by New York lawyer and bondholder Ed Fagan, said notices were being served on German government finance agencies, the Bundesbank and commercial banks to attend a May 13 hearing on the case in New York.

Fagan, known for filing Holocaust-related class action claims, said the group was representing holders of only three kinds of gold-backed bond and that other outstanding bonds could bring total compensation claims to some $42 billion.

"When we win the lawsuit in the United States you're dead, financially," Fagan told a briefing for reporters in Germany.

"This case far eclipses the Holocaust claims financially," he added.

Black Blade: Looks like fun times at the Reichsbank. ;-)

GoldiloxBankruptcy Bill#13148104/20/05; 21:47:54

@ BB, (Black Blade, not Bankruptcy Bill),

From what you have posted, I think we agree on more things than we disagree.

I am appalled that every time I go to the bank or the motorcycle store, or whatever, someone is trying to sell me a loan with some finished good attached. "Why, as 0.9%, you are only paying for it as you use it".

I haven't worked in two years, but I am PRE-APPROVED, only on the basis that I, like you, only buy what I can pay for with cash - cars and motorcycles included.

By buying and selling a couple of houses along the route, I have established stellar credit, so even my bank (who can see my lack of income) wants me to buy a new car.

I have some sympathy for victims of the FEDs "please borrow more" strategy of fixing the economy, although I share your disdain for credit fraud. I think stricter application of credit fraud laws is a better solution than tightening the noose on those who have been overwhelmed by catastrophe.

The saddest thing of all is that credit junkies are only mimicking the behavior of their "trusted leaders". Why save anything, if it only going to be inflated away? Our insipid leaders couldn't even be trusted to save our SSI contributions. They had to fritter them away before inflation got to them.

The piper is piping, and I think he wants to get paid!

Tevye $$$$ 435.7 $$$$$#13148204/20/05; 22:02:28

When NAI occurs, how would we know?

NAI has been going on for so long now, a little bit at a time, that it would take Rip Van Winkle to notice it, awakening from a 30 year nap to a real nightmare. All of the popular media give us useless references. Never anything we could really draw a conclusion from.

If the money supply increases (exponentially) again, we are told it is a wonderful thing - as we have once again dodged the de-flation bullet, or Y2K bullet or some contagion or other. The true source and textbook definition of inflation is of course the money supply, but Joe Sixpack will never know.

When the price of stock rises (soaking up money), this is a wonderful positive thing, We are all richer, we are told, until the bubble bursts, or the bubble simply sits there, asking for account fees to maintain it. (poor Tevye's stock needs either milking or re-shoeing!)

When the price of real estate rises (soaking up money), then our net worth is certainly enhanced. Well real estate is real isn't it? Certainly _someone_ will always be willing to part with a measly half mil for my suburban bungalow! (poor Tevye can only dream of suburbia! Anyone want a subsistence dairy farm for a half mil? The outhouse is 'like new'!)

But when the price of things goes up, (soaking us!) then we call it inflation. But weekly specials tell us we are _saving_ at these prices. Yet all of us know the price of petrol. So those few things that we really do know the price of, will be massaged a bit to keep us from worrying. (poor Tevye only wishes he had pricing power and could make a profit on milk and cheese)

I've lost track of the number of times recently that OPEC has increased oil production by a million barrels a day! Thus the POO declines and everyone eases up a bit. But never a word about where the oil came from, went to, or found a transport ship to do it on. If we added it up, world production likely doubled with the wave of a press release, and not a worry to the wiser. (musta been derivative leveraged paper oil!)

Golden press releases tell us about the central bank sales of their non interest bearing relics. But just like the oil, we know neither where it went nor how. 'Tis possible it went nowhere; just a bill of sale issued to clear up a lease that can never be recovered, or admitted to because of the losses and politics and illegalities involved. But we are told to be happy, as the POG is stable and world debt will be addressed by benevolent government gold sales. You bet your savings it will, but not as the politicians hope; but rather how they fear it will, when gold has value (many thousand FRNs, but more importantly, folk will trade for it) and paper doesn't have value.

The alarm clock ticks on. Ol' Rip Van will realize it was a nightmare upon awakening; an all too real one. Once upon a time he could visit Hawaii on $5 a day. Now that fiver won't buy lunch at McDonalds, or a decent pint! But of course, that is "normal" and "to be expected" isn't it now! Or so we are told.

And no, Golda, I can't drag the cart to Hawaii.

Gold. Its Tradition.

Tranquility Base$$$$$437.30$$$$$$#13148304/20/05; 22:18:37

In my mind the tendancy is heading toward more inflation and a nightmare inflation may not be avoided. As Jim Sinclair pointed out tonite once the dollar breaks down it is apt to go beyond reason. Therefore gold may well go up beyond reason. He has often predicted $1600 gold and Russell has predicted $3000 gold. I make my prediction to land in that range knowing I'm in company with some of the all-time greats.

Tranquility Base

commishSir Gandalf - You are correct I am indeed the first one to wager.#13148404/20/05; 22:26:59

If my remote viewing is correct how about tossing in a silver eagle as a bonus.
Black BladeYIKES!!! Will oil strike $380 a barrel by 2015?#13148504/20/05; 22:40:33


A steep hike in prices is expected due to growing energy demands

A report prepared by energy economists at the French investment bank Ixis-CIB has warned crude oil prices could touch $380 a barrel by 2015. Analysts Patrick Artus and Moncef Kaabi said that in the next 10 years demand for oil will outstrip supply by around 8 million barrels per day (mbpd). "If one takes into account the level of previous oil shocks such as in the 1970's, we don't think a price level of $380 per barrel is out of the question," they said.

Black Blade: Scary thing is - that's likely not far off the mark.

compwiz4u$$$$$ $447.00 $$$$$$$#13148604/20/05; 23:03:04

I theorize that Nightmare American Inflation will happen and probably much sooner than anyone expects.

As the Federal debt continues on its parabolic rise (almost a trillion dollars this fiscal year alone), more dollars will be created since dollars are born via the debt creation. More and more debt equals more and more dollars. As the dollars in circulation increase, it will take more of them to buy things, since each dollar out there will be worth less.

I believe the TPTB know that the current monetary system they inherited cannot be fixed. So they are expanding gov't, increasing spending and piling on debt to bring about the eventual hyperinflation and systemic collapse. Then they can start over with clean slates as all debts will be paid off with worthless dollars, or just written off. Precious metals will then return to their Constitutional role as money.

Is it any wonder TPTB are having a big party and spending spree with all the borrowed dollars they can get their hands on since they realize the end game? I suspect they are also buying precious metals to preserve and enhance their personal wealth while suppressing prices with dollars borrowed by the gov't.


POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 4/20/05, WEDNESDAY at 23:05 (Denver time)


REMEMBER that the Entry DEADLINE is at MIDNIGHT today !!! Tick Tock

BASIS of Question -- (In keeping with the spirit of the German 20 mark coin and referring to the Nightmare German Inflation (NGI) report as seen at the above LINK for educational purposes.) --

The QUESTION -- (Put on your THINKING HATS !)
Is a Nightmare American Inflation (NAI) a possibility as America may have passed the point of no return. SOOO, What could be the price of gold at the NAI's PEAK and WHY ?" in 30 words or more.

Entries listed in order of decending values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (4/13/05; 18:05:18MT - msg#: 131160)

$$$$5,550.5$$$$ Waverider (04/20/05; 19:37:31MT - msg#: 131452)

$$$$1,776.0$$$$ DoubleEagle (4/20/05; 14:22:03MT - msg#: 131422)

$$$$ $480.0 $$$$ SIR "Prof." JS (A long time ago at home with his faithfull dog at his side!) <;-) Thanks Sir Smeagol !

$$$$ $474.1 $$$$ Beamer (4/17/05; 01:40:45MT - msg#: 131261)

$$$$ $462.0 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (4/14/05; 09:16:26MT - msg#: 131173)

$$$$ $452.0 $$$$ Dollar Bill (4/20/05; 12:10:11MT - msg#: 131408)

$$$$ $451.2 $$$$ mikal (4/14/05; 23:59:56MT - msg#: 131195)

$$$$ $447.0 $$$$ compwiz4u (04/20/05; 23:03:04MT - msg#: 131486)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Goldilox (4/12/05; 23:58:41MT - msg#: 131136)

$$$$ $443.9 $$$$ R Powell (4/20/05; 14:12:22MT - msg#: 131416)

$$$$ $443.4 $$$$ Buongiorno! (4/19/05; 13:10:47MT - msg#: 131361)

$$$$ $443.0 $$$$ 7nomads (04/20/05; 20:58:24MT - msg#: 131471)

$$$$ $442.1 $$$$ Henri (4/13/05; 11:07:18MT - msg#: 131147)

$$$$ $441.8 $$$$ The Hoople (4/20/05; 10:08:18MT - msg#: 131401)

$$$$ $441.5 $$$$ Guided (04/20/05; 20:33:57MT - msg#: 131467)

$$$$ $441.2 $$$$ madmark (04/20/05; 13:31:54MT - msg#: 131414)

$$$$ $441.0 $$$$ Chally (04/19/05; 10:43:31MT - msg#: 131346)

$$$$ $440.8 $$$$ Rimh (04/20/05; 09:45:46MT - msg#: 131398)

$$$$ $440.5 $$$$ Yukon (4/19/05; 22:57:09MT - msg#: 131388)

$$$$ $440.0 $$$$ Sundeck (4/18/05; 22:48:39MT - msg#: 131328)
$$$$ $439.9 $$$$ PNB (4/17/05; 04:17:48MT - msg#: 131262)
$$$$ $439.8 $$$$ Bottom Bouncer (4/20/05; 14:35:00MT - msg#: 131423)
$$$$ $439.7 $$$$ shawnis (04/20/05; 20:15:14MT - msg#: 131458)
$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ spikedog (4/20/05; 17:22:25MT - msg#: 131434)
$$$$ $439.5 $$$$ goldenpeace (4/19/05; 12:46:16MT - msg#: 131359)

$$$$ $439.3 $$$$ Survivor (4/20/05; 16:41:44MT - msg#: 131431)

$$$$ $439.0 $$$$ innerline (04/20/05; 20:11:12MT - msg#: 131455)

$$$$ $438.5 $$$$ Bulldog (4/14/05; 12:50:53MT - msg#: 131178)

$$$$ $438.3 $$$$ Shermag (04/20/05; 20:41:01MT - msg#: 131469)

$$$$ $438.1 $$$$ Boilermaker (4/20/05; 15:55:07MT - msg#: 131428)
$$$$ $438.0 $$$$ Black Blade (4/20/05; 18:17:29MT - msg#: 131445)
$$$$ $437.9 $$$$ Beer Man (04/20/05; 21:03:57MT - msg#: 131472)

$$$$ $437.7 $$$$ YGM (4/20/05; 00:32:10MT - msg#: 131390)

$$$$ $437.3 $$$$ Tranquility Base (04/20/05; 22:18:37MT - msg#: 131483)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ OvS (4/16/05; 14:41:41MT - msg#: 131248)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ commish (4/12/05; 22:46:35MT - msg#: 131135)

$$$$ $436.3 $$$$ balzac (4/19/05; 18:25:40MT - msg#: 131376)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ Rustee (4/13/05; 09:58:16MT - msg#: 131144)

$$$$ $435.7 $$$$ Tevye (04/20/05; 22:02:28MT - msg#: 131482)

$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (4/20/05; 15:54:44MT - msg#: 131427)
$$$$ $435.4 $$$$ Rocky (4/20/05; 11:41:00MT - msg#: 131407)

$$$$ $435.0 $$$$ Clink! (4/19/05; 07:14:45MT - msg#: 131333)

$$$$ $434.6 $$$$ arbyh (4/17/05; 07:59:44MT - msg#: 131267)

$$$$ $434.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (4/13/05; 09:58:54MT - msg#: 131145)

$$$$ $434.0 $$$$ Gonlyold (04/18/05; 21:33:56MT - msg#: 131326)

$$$$ $433.3 $$$$ Gandalf the White (04/18/05; 20:40:44MT - msg#: 131324)

$$$$ $432.6 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (4/20/05; 15:34:34MT - msg#: 131425)

$$$$ $432.1 $$$$ Smeagol (4/13/05; 17:20:02MT - msg#: 131159)

$$$$ $431.5 $$$$ Toolie (04/20/05; 19:10:22MT - msg#: 131450)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ Felix the Cat (4/19/05; 01:02:06MT - msg#: 131329)

$$$$ $430.5 $$$$ jimbojim39 (4/17/05; 08:45:42MT - msg#: 131269)

$$$$ $428.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (4/17/05; 04:54:11MT - msg#: 131263)

$$$$ $428.7 $$$$ slingshot (4/15/05; 06:16:47MT - msg#: 131196)

$$$$ $427.5 $$$$ 2023 (4/13/05; 07:47:34MT - msg#: 131141)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (4/13/05; 03:16:49MT - msg#: 131139)

$$$$ $425.0 $$$$ DryWasher (4/17/05; 08:39:09MT - msg#: 131268)

$$$$ $423.5 $$$$ Liberty Head (4/14/05; 20:11:28MT - msg#: 131189)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Federal_Reserves (4/13/05; 16:59:33MT - msg#: 131158)

$$$$ $417.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (4/16/05; 22:57:23MT - msg#: 131258)

$$$$ $415.5 $$$$ mackattack (4/17/05; 00:46:36MT - msg#: 131260)


compwiz4uWhat could be the price of gold at the NAI's PEAK and WHY#13148804/20/05; 23:16:42

I forgot this part for the contest. I think the gold price will equal the number of dollars in circulation divided by the number of gold ounces available at the point in time the system collapses. Jason Hommel estimated it to be over $30,000 per ounce in Jan 2003 (See URL). So, it will probably be much higher than that considering the hyperinflationary scenario I expect.
Druid$$$$443.50$$$$#13148904/20/05; 23:29:53

Is a Nightmare American Inflation (NAI) a possibility as America may have passed the point of no return. SOOO, What could be the price of gold at the NAI's PEAK and WHY ?" in 30 words or more.

Druid: In asking the question, I'm guessing that a NAI is meaning a runaway or hyperinflation scenario. We as a country are already mired in inflation but it's not quite recognized by most because it is distributed throughout society in different forms using different names.

By in large we're currently a "wants" society slowly converging toward a "needs" society. Over the last 30 years our Puppet Masters have done an incredible marketing job in associating dreams with wants by tying the concept of value to a fiat currency fueled by means of a fractional credit manufacturing process. As with all human systems, this process is not without incredible human error and it's within this magnitude of error that they have created a false reality for most in the pursuit of those wants and dreams.

This huge abstract construct is fleeting at best and fragile at worst and is beginning to converge toward a physical process that produces society's needs. To be sure, this will be a transitory process and it's within this continuous escalation of prices for our needs that a rearranging of our tastes and preferences will take place thereby reshaping our perceptions of what is valuable and what is not. Yes, fantasy is beginning to collide with reality with the great awakening-taking place at the gas pump. I can't predict the rate at which this transition takes place but I can assure you that by what I'm seeing and hearing, the process is underway.

The oil market is much different then the gold market. In the oil market physical delivery is everything while in the gold market paper settlement is everything.

The price of oil will test our society's financial pain threshold and whatever level that is, some sort of "deal" among the world powers will have to be worked out for an inconceivable price of GOLD.

Or maybe a deal won't be worked out, stay tuned......

otish mountain$$$$30,000$$$$#13149004/20/05; 23:45:45

Is a Nightmare American Inflation possible. Without a doubt but this occurance will not just be limited to the USA alone.

The whole basis of our financial system is reliant on growth. While in the meantime our poor mother earth is reaching her limits.

Our monetary system has exploited the wealth that has been offered and now cannot function as it was designed. Cracks are appearing, imbalances'shortages,injustice,and war.

While we have an avantage of our collective interest at this table round we are often amazed and sometimes horrified at what we witness. Let me tell you there are other oaken tables of like people who are equally amazed and horrified at what they see, even though their interests are not as ours.

Goldendome$$$$$$$$$$442.50$$$$$$$$$#13149104/20/05; 23:48:53

Nightmare American Inflation? I doubt that it will be nearly so bad as the German Weimer inflation of roughly 1922 and 1923 -- the wholesale inflation rate increased by $726 billion to one! I don't doubt however, that we will have situations with the dollar and our financial system that will drive gold to $967.00 an ounce within six years.
Gandalf the WhiteDid you hear the Clock strike TWELVE ? The POG CONTEST is CLOSED !#13149204/21/05; 00:01:44


Entries listed in order of decending values !

$$$$30,000.0$$$ otish mountain (04/20/05; 23:45:45MT - msg#: 131490)

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (4/13/05; 18:05:18MT - msg#: 131160)

$$$$5,550.5$$$$ Lady Waverider (04/20/05; 19:37:31MT - msg#: 131452)

$$$$1,776.0$$$$ DoubleEagle (4/20/05; 14:22:03MT - msg#: 131422)

$$$$ $480.0 $$$$ SIR "Prof." JS (A long time ago at home with his faithful dog at his side!)
<;-) Thanks Sir Smeagol !

$$$$ $474.1 $$$$ Beamer (4/17/05; 01:40:45MT - msg#: 131261)

$$$$ $462.0 $$$$ Whitewaterwoman (4/14/05; 09:16:26MT - msg#: 131173)

$$$$ $452.0 $$$$ Dollar Bill (4/20/05; 12:10:11MT - msg#: 131408)

$$$$ $451.2 $$$$ mikal (4/14/05; 23:59:56MT - msg#: 131195)

$$$$ $447.0 $$$$ compwiz4u (04/20/05; 23:03:04MT - msg#: 131486)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Goldilox (4/12/05; 23:58:41MT - msg#: 131136)

$$$$ $443.9 $$$$ R Powell (4/20/05; 14:12:22MT - msg#: 131416)

$$$$ $443.5 $$$$ Druid (04/20/05; 23:29:53MT - msg#: 131489)
$$$$ $443.4 $$$$ Buongiorno! (4/19/05; 13:10:47MT - msg#: 131361)

$$$$ $443.0 $$$$ 7nomads (04/20/05; 20:58:24MT - msg#: 131471)

$$$$ $442.5 $$$$ Goldendome (04/20/05; 23:48:53MT - msg#: 131491)

$$$$ $442.1 $$$$ Henri (4/13/05; 11:07:18MT - msg#: 131147)

$$$$ $441.8 $$$$ The Hoople (4/20/05; 10:08:18MT - msg#: 131401)

$$$$ $441.5 $$$$ Guided (04/20/05; 20:33:57MT - msg#: 131467)

$$$$ $441.2 $$$$ madmark (04/20/05; 13:31:54MT - msg#: 131414)

$$$$ $441.0 $$$$ Chally (04/19/05; 10:43:31MT - msg#: 131346)

$$$$ $440.8 $$$$ Rimh (04/20/05; 09:45:46MT - msg#: 131398)

$$$$ $440.5 $$$$ Yukon (4/19/05; 22:57:09MT - msg#: 131388)

$$$$ $440.0 $$$$ Sundeck (4/18/05; 22:48:39MT - msg#: 131328)
$$$$ $439.9 $$$$ PNB (4/17/05; 04:17:48MT - msg#: 131262)
$$$$ $439.8 $$$$ Bottom Bouncer (4/20/05; 14:35:00MT - msg#: 131423)
$$$$ $439.7 $$$$ shawnis (04/20/05; 20:15:14MT - msg#: 131458)
$$$$ $439.6 $$$$ spikedog (4/20/05; 17:22:25MT - msg#: 131434)
$$$$ $439.5 $$$$ goldenpeace (4/19/05; 12:46:16MT - msg#: 131359)

$$$$ $439.3 $$$$ Survivor (4/20/05; 16:41:44MT - msg#: 131431)

$$$$ $439.0 $$$$ innerline (04/20/05; 20:11:12MT - msg#: 131455)

$$$$ $438.5 $$$$ Bulldog (4/14/05; 12:50:53MT - msg#: 131178)

$$$$ $438.3 $$$$ Shermag (04/20/05; 20:41:01MT - msg#: 131469)

$$$$ $438.1 $$$$ Boilermaker (4/20/05; 15:55:07MT - msg#: 131428)
$$$$ $438.0 $$$$ Black Blade (4/20/05; 18:17:29MT - msg#: 131445)
$$$$ $437.9 $$$$ Beer Man (04/20/05; 21:03:57MT - msg#: 131472)

$$$$ $437.7 $$$$ YGM (4/20/05; 00:32:10MT - msg#: 131390)

$$$$ $437.3 $$$$ Tranquility Base (04/20/05; 22:18:37MT - msg#: 131483)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ OvS (4/16/05; 14:41:41MT - msg#: 131248)

$$$$ $436.5 $$$$ commish (4/12/05; 22:46:35MT - msg#: 131135)

$$$$ $436.3 $$$$ balzac (4/19/05; 18:25:40MT - msg#: 131376)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ Rustee (4/13/05; 09:58:16MT - msg#: 131144)

$$$$ $435.7 $$$$ Tevye (04/20/05; 22:02:28MT - msg#: 131482)

$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (4/20/05; 15:54:44MT - msg#: 131427)
$$$$ $435.4 $$$$ Rocky (4/20/05; 11:41:00MT - msg#: 131407)

$$$$ $435.0 $$$$ Clink! (4/19/05; 07:14:45MT - msg#: 131333)

$$$$ $434.6 $$$$ arbyh (4/17/05; 07:59:44MT - msg#: 131267)

$$$$ $434.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (4/13/05; 09:58:54MT - msg#: 131145)

$$$$ $434.0 $$$$ Gonlyold (04/18/05; 21:33:56MT - msg#: 131326)

$$$$ $433.3 $$$$ Gandalf the White (04/18/05; 20:40:44MT - msg#: 131324)

$$$$ $432.6 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (4/20/05; 15:34:34MT - msg#: 131425)

$$$$ $432.1 $$$$ Smeagol (4/13/05; 17:20:02MT - msg#: 131159)

$$$$ $431.5 $$$$ Toolie (04/20/05; 19:10:22MT - msg#: 131450)

$$$$ $431.0 $$$$ Felix the Cat (4/19/05; 01:02:06MT - msg#: 131329)

$$$$ $430.5 $$$$ jimbojim39 (4/17/05; 08:45:42MT - msg#: 131269)

$$$$ $428.9 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (4/17/05; 04:54:11MT - msg#: 131263)

$$$$ $428.7 $$$$ slingshot (4/15/05; 06:16:47MT - msg#: 131196)

$$$$ $427.5 $$$$ 2023 (4/13/05; 07:47:34MT - msg#: 131141)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (4/13/05; 03:16:49MT - msg#: 131139)

$$$$ $425.0 $$$$ DryWasher (4/17/05; 08:39:09MT - msg#: 131268)

$$$$ $423.5 $$$$ Liberty Head (4/14/05; 20:11:28MT - msg#: 131189)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Federal_Reserves (4/13/05; 16:59:33MT - msg#: 131158)

$$$$ $417.5 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (4/16/05; 22:57:23MT - msg#: 131258)

$$$$ $415.5 $$$$ mackattack (4/17/05; 00:46:36MT - msg#: 131260)
NOW we await the June '05 COMEX Contrat (GCM5) SETTLEMENT on Friday the 22nd of April.

GoldiloxSikver Leadership#13149304/21/05; 01:06:59

Without nary a nudge from the dollar or gold, Ag has jumped back to $730 top o' the London morn.

Let's hope it has "leadership" in mind for the day.

TopazMA's#1314944/21/05; 02:35:06

At first blush the Dollar looks a goner from a MA perspective however, a closer look shows the "Allies" poised to defend the status-quo...and I believe they will.

A bit of elbow room in the Contest will be a nice change.

Goldilox2 Brits nabbed with $3 trillion in fake US fed notes#1314954/21/05; 08:39:23


The National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) on Thursday said it has arrested two British nationals with $3 trillion fake US federal bank notes in their possession, DZMM reported. . .

Flavell and Beany's arrest came following a tip from international cargo forwarder DHL Philippines Inc. on April 14, Wycoco said.

The tip was about a shipment consigned to two foreigners, which was pending at the company warehouse.

The forwarder said the cargo was bound for Zurich, Switzerland.

The NBI dispatched a team to the DHL office. The agents were able to chance upon the suspects as they were paying the airway bill amounting to P53,967.


That's a lot of trees. I hope they recycle the paper! Three trillion in gold is one thing that would be very hard to counterfeit.

GoldiloxCounterfeit story - missing reference#1314964/21/05; 08:41:15

Sorry, pre-coffee post.
GoldiloxOil Pipeline Breaks and Pollutes Barataria Bay in Louisiana#1314974/21/05; 08:50:18


An Exxon Mobil crude oil pipeline that brings sweet crude oil from offshore to inland refineries ruptured at about 2:30 p.m. Tuesday, April 19, 2005 six miles north of Grand Isle in Barataria Bay, an area of marshland and oyster grounds.

The Coast Guard Command Center in Houma said there were no immediate reports of damage to wildlife. Wind blew the sheen north by northwest and away from Grand Isle in the hours after the spill was detected.

It was not immediately known how much oil was released, but the sheen was large enough to require about 100 workers to contain and remediate.

Exxon Mobil shut down the pipeline and dispatched divers to inspect the pipeline, but was unclear how the pipeline broke.


FEMA release about the break. No word yet on the magnitude or cause of the failure. Earth movements?

GoldiloxDX and Sir AG#1314984/21/05; 09:03:46

Sir GS is testifying in the Senate about deficits, especially in future SSI and Healthcare requirements.

Pay-Go and means-testing are being discussed again.

For once, the DX does not seem to be supported during his talk.

Euro is up, but the US$ is up against the Yen.

Gold and silver are marking time.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Halfway to sold out! Either way, this offer ends tomorrow at 5:00pm MDT#1314994/21/05; 09:54:05

April Buyers' Group
Argentinos available for THREE DAYS ONLY!
Argentina gold coins

Shop online or phone for addtional savings.
Call today, save today!

ChallyUH-OH! Verge of elimination.....#1315004/21/05; 10:06:36

......according to the unwritten $6 rule, (We MUST have Rules!!) anyone (at this moment) with a contest prognostication of $441+ stands at the edge of the abyss.

We be needin' a nudge!

RimhHow true, Chally.....#1315014/21/05; 10:16:24

And I be one of those likely out of the running. Not to worry, though. Tomorrow the sun will rise again!
TownCrierHSBC To Take London Gold Fixing Chairmanship From May 3#1315024/21/05; 10:21:21

HSBC To Take London Gold Fixing Chairmanship From May 3

LONDON (Dow Jones) -- HSBC will assume the chairmanship of the London Gold Fixing on May 3, taking over from the current holder, the Bank of Nova Scotia, the London Gold Fixing said on its Web site Thursday.

Since May 2004, the chairmanship of the London Gold Market Fixing has been rotated annually among the five member firms. [Randy's note: this arrangement was instituted when Rothschild publicly stepped out of the market -- out of the fixing and out of the LBMA.]

HSBC will hold the chairmanship for 12 months before it passes to another member firm, the statement said.

^----(from url)----^

Not significant market news, but may be a useful for a trivia question some day.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Proven Reliability, Longevity, Quality and Professionalism ---- Invest with Confidence!!#1315034/21/05; 10:22:35

ShermagGoldilox, $3 Trillion Counterfeit#1315044/21/05; 11:25:41

There must be an error somewhere in that report. I did some math on the volume that would occupy, and determined it would fill 450 large international shipping containers stuffed full of $100 notes.

Even $3 billion is a stretch. $3 million is plausible.

SurvivorShermag, Goldilox, $3 Trillion Counterfeit#1315054/21/05; 11:35:14

> I did some math on the volume that would occupy, and determined it would fill 450 large international shipping containers stuffed full of $100 notes.

I remember something about notes larger than $100 still being available outside the US. There were $500 notes for sure, and maybe $1000 or larger notes in circulation inside the US during the last half of the last century.

Oops, showing my age here . . .

- Survivor

TownCrierU.S. Current Account Deficit: Causes and Consequences#1315064/21/05; 11:52:36

Remarks by Federal Reserve Board Vice Chairman Roger W. Ferguson, Jr. --

I would like to address an issue that is receiving increasing attention lately: the U.S. current account deficit. Not since joining the Federal Reserve Board have I seen this topic show up in the financial press as frequently--and so often with such ominous overtones--as it does these days. Several reasons for this come to mind.

Most obviously, at about 6 percent of gross domestic product, the current account deficit is now larger than it has ever been in our nation's history; that, by itself, attracts attention.

Also, because the current account deficit reflects the excess of our country's imports over our exports, the deficit's descent into record territory has helped crystalize fears that the economy is losing competitiveness and that U.S. jobs and incomes are suffering as a result.

Finally, the larger the current account deficit becomes, the greater the number of observers who believe that a correction, and one with significant implications for the U.S. economy, is imminent. Such expectations have contributed to, and in turn have been reinforced by, the slide in the dollar over the past few years.

Although views differ as to when a correction will take place, nearly all agree that the current trajectory of the U.S. current account deficit is unsustainable. This consensus reflects the simple logic that the deficit is causing the net indebtedness of the U.S. economy to rise more rapidly than U.S. income. ...

If nearly all observers agree that an adjustment of the U.S. current account deficit is inevitable, few agree on when the adjustment will occur and what will cause it to happen. ...

A large part of the reason that people disagree about what will be needed to bring about current account adjustment is that they disagree about what has led the deficit to become so large in the first place.

...I would like now to address five different explanations for the large U.S. current account deficit. ... I will not discuss yet another factor that undoubtedly has contributed to the widening of the deficit--the rise in oil prices--but it is worth noting that our oil import bill has risen by about $110 billion, from $68 billion in 1999 to $180 billion in 2004, and most of this increase reflects higher oil prices.

Reason #5:
Another global factor that has been cited as contributing to the widening of the U.S. current account deficit has been an increase in global financial intermediation. Some suggest that home bias--the disinclination of investors to invest outside their own country--has been eroding and that this trend has permitted larger current account imbalances to be financed than would have been possible previously. ... Of course, an increased capacity of global financial markets to finance current account deficits does not, by itself, mean that it is the United States that would tap this enlarged capacity. However, observers suggest that the United States' unusually favorable investment climate, protections of investor rights, and prospects for rates of return made it likely that once international financing constraints were lifted, the U.S. economy would enjoy larger capital inflows.

So, how much of the enlargement of the U.S. current account deficit can we attribute to improved international intermediation?

This is difficult to answer because it is hard enough to measure a concept as amorphous as international financial intermediation, let alone to gauge its effect on the current account. As a step in this direction, however, we reasoned that any reduction in home bias by foreign investors toward the United States would show up as a decline in the risk premium these investors demand for holding U.S. assets. This decline in the risk premium, in turn, would lead to a greater demand for U.S. assets and a rise in the dollar.

Based on an estimate of the decline in the risk premium that occurred since the mid-1990s, our macroeconomic model suggests, that the decline contributed importantly to the rise in the dollar, and, therefore, to the widening of the trade deficit. Assuming that the lower risk premium can be attributed to growing international intermediation, this latter development apparently exerted an important influence on the U.S. current account.

[Randy's note: Pssssst... hey, Roger, you're missing the boat. This is OLD news; haven't you heard??? This is a direct consequence (whether originally intended or not) of the architecture of the Bretton Woods system in which international CBs not only have shed a "home bias" but have actually had this as an institutional bias directed at U.S. assets in particular.]

^------(from url)----^

Bottomline: If you want to get serious about "corrective action", I suggest that proper institutional emphasis be put upon this crucial element of reserve assets and subsequently a primary utilization of (non-partisan!) gold. If only it were as easily done as said... (That is to say, the smooth transition of China's economy is not something to be rashly sacrificed on the alter of Washington idealism.)


TownCrierShermag and Survivor, counterfeit notes#1315074/21/05; 11:59:13

Maybe the article was misleading. Instead of $3 trillion pile notes, maybe it was actually only THREE $trillion notes. That is to say, three notes, each of one trillion face value.


After all, they WERE counterfeit, so the normal rules don't necessarily apply...

Just for laughs.


TownCrierThe next dimension for EU-China relations#1315084/21/05; 12:26:14

Statement by Gertrude Tumpel-Gugerell, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB --

Ladies and gentlemen,
During a recent visit to China, I had the wonderful opportunity to stay briefly in Xian, the end point of the Silk Road. I remember looking down the tiny road as it disappeared over the horizon, taking travellers on a journey across thousands of kilometres and through many inhospitable landscapes. I was overcome by a feeling of deep respect for the generations of traders who – despite the enormous strains and difficulties that the journey entailed – had made this path the crucial link between China and Europe for some time.

Fortunately, exchanges between China and Europe are much easier nowadays. And I am particularly grateful that many descendents of those bold traders of ancient times have been able to make it here today. However, when we discuss contemporary EU-China relations, we do so against the backdrop of intense domestic debates in the EU about China's emergence on the global economic stage. This includes questions such as:

-- Does competition from China pose a threat to our economy?

-- Have China's rapidly growing exports already crowded out European exports in third markets?

-- Should the EU adopt legislation, as the US Senate is expected to do by July this year, that would increase tariffs on Chinese imports unless China agrees to revalue its currency?

[Randy's note: Doh! She really nailed us with that one!]

...Between 1990 and 2003, in the euro area, the value of imports from China has increased by eight times, and the value of exports to China has increased seven-fold.

Does this mean therefore that we Europeans should just look at ourselves as net losers in the process of competition with China? Or are we facing unique opportunities that we can take advantage of? general assessment is that China should be understood primarily as a 'challenge' to the European economy. This means that future developments will depend to a large extent on the actual behaviour of all European parties involved -- with protectionism being neither a proper nor a useful avenue.

These parties involve citizens as well as firms, trade unions and policy-makers. However, the process includes also the Chinese authorities in charge of macroeconomic stability, as China is currently playing a fundamental role in both the accumulation and financing of global external imbalances, and is considered equally important in view of the adjustment of such imbalances.

This was recognised again at the recent IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings and reiterated in statements by the G7 and the International Monetary and Financial Committee -- emphasising "that more flexibility in exchange rates is desirable for major countries or economic areas that lack such flexibility".

Having said all this, it should come as no surprise to hear that, in recent years, the ECB and the Eurosystem have intensified both their analysis of China and their relations with the Chinese authorities.

The ECB now has a well-established high-level policy dialogue with the People's Bank of China. Both institutions have made considerable progress in terms of encouraging dialogue between staff, for instance through joint seminars, workshops, cooperation in the field of training and staff exchanges.

Only by having more exchanges and more discussions, like today's conference, can we improve the understanding of China here in Europe, which in my view is paramount to dispelling fears and misconceptions.

^-----(from url)----^

Please consider this as an institutional response in conjunction with the specific remarks I offered at the end of the previous post spotlighting the deficit comments by the Fed's Roger Ferguson.

Perhaps I can get an "amen" from Belgian or 698 on the crucial difference in U.S. vs. ECB's 'political stylings' toward China as pointed out in this post.


TownCrierRelated to previous: U.S. - China relations (study in contrast)#1315094/21/05; 12:48:36;jsessionid=TOQBUBTMCKFSECRBAEOCFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=8256499

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Growing economic pressure will compel China to alter its policy of pegging its currency to the U.S. dollar at some point, and the sooner it happens the better, Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan said on Thursday.

The influential U.S. central bank chairman, testifying before the Senate Budget Committee, ... effectively aligned himself with stepped-up Bush administration pressure for Beijing to drop its decade-old currency peg...

At nearly the same time as Greenspan spoke, U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow repeated the new, tougher administration line on China...

^----(from url)---^

'nough said.


TownCrierChina vows to beef up economic ties with Asia, Africa#1315104/21/05; 13:22:38,4574,152976,00.html?

JAKARTA - China's President on Thursday vowed to use his country's thundering economy to help less dynamic markets in Asia and Africa close the gap on the developing world.

In a keynote address at a summit of business leaders from both continents in Jakarta, Hu Jintao said the two regions needed to close ranks to face the challenges of economic globalisation and an increasingly tough world market.

'Faced with both opportunities and challenges, we Asian and African countries must seize opportunities, strengthen cooperation to cope with challenges and seek common development.'

As Asia's second-largest economy, China is already the second-biggest user of oil after the United States, importing 122 million tonnes in 2004, up 34.8 per cent from the previous year.

As such, China needs to foster closer ties with Asia and African countries to tap their vast oil and gas supplies and feed its furiously expanding industrial sector.

'Facts show that China cannot develop in isolation and the world needs China to achieve global prosperity,' he said.

Mr Hu also called on developed countries to show consideration for the difficulties faced by developing nations amid globalisation and urged a 'fair and rational' international economic order.

^-----(from url)----^

By its non-partisan nature, you can expect gold to play a prominent role in any such "fair and rational" international economic order.

ECB President Duisenberg led the way in the top of the order in 1999 with 15 European CBs' joint Statement on Gold:

"1. Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves.

Federal_ReservesDOW up almost 200 points!#1315114/21/05; 13:44:47

Yesterday the SM/DOW almost broke down through the psychologically important 10K barrier. The DOW has been dropping like a rock for quite some time. Lots of worry about inflation and economic slowing has been hurting it. I'm sure the PPT (NYSE banks) and even the large corporations with permits and cash available to buy their own stock came rushing out with buy programs today to rescue the DOW and stop it from falling below the 10k barrier. Probably some pressure from the White House/FED/Treasury too as Greenspan made his way to Congress today for testimony. The economy is on tenter hooks, jammed with debt, deficits, and goods inflation. Any break in the SM below 10k could have set off a PANIC and worsened the attitude's of consumers which could cause pocket books to close. Anyways, another great save by the PPT (Plunge Protection Team).
TopazTail wags Dog.#1315124/21/05; 14:43:32

It seems TPTB just can't orchestrate a Dow up, Oil down day for love or Money.
Gold shrugged off the DX spikes today and was content to meander along in blissful ignorance ...Good Boy Spot!

Belgian@TC#1315134/21/05; 15:20:24

As a matter of coincidence, I received Frau Gertrude's views (works) on EU-China relations, from 968, first thing in the morning. Gertrude is publicly reporting about a relationship that already started many years ago and is in full swing, at present.
Monsieur Rafarin recently reconfirmed France's commitments towards China on the Taiwan and high tech armement matters. This on top of the building monetary convergences between ECB and China's CB wich are in a much further (more advanced) phase than Gertrude is suggesting.

It was Alcatel tech that launched China's recent satelite in space.

A few weeks ago, the CNBC messengers sneered at the EU (EMU-ECB) that they shouldn't expect too much from their chinese buddies !? HoHoowwww...

What does a ***stable*** and consistantly strong euro-currency say (express) about the (monetary)union that is issuing this currency !?

If (US) trade deficits don't matter...what significance does a (converging) conglomerate of trade surplusses have !?
What do they intend to share now and in the future !? Could it be FREEGOLD ?

Not only political styling, Randy...but hard economic (and monetary) realities...very often purposely turned upside down for the general public's the competitor ($). So be it.

And the continued IMF-gold-tumult behind the screens ...indicate that these global changes (cfr. Gertrude) have a relationship with gold and its future.

Oh, it simply coincidence that the most recent ECB gold-commitment (made public) of 47 tonnes corresponds with the same amount of Argentinian gold-intake !? Intriging, no.

Next time, Gertrude (or one of her collegues) might suggest that the evolving global energy-situation is in fact a ***monetary*** matter...and NOT a peak-oil(gas) thing. Cfr. the recent (subtle) Saudi public statements on their reserve policies.
Russia wasn't very happy with Condoleeza's suggestion for another regime change.
These global oil/gas wars go hand in hand with the huge changes that are taking place. Watch how the China-Japan competitive relationship is being modelled. flows ! All moving stealthly and strategically, under the covering military rug.

TownCrierBelgian, thank you!#1315144/21/05; 15:39:03

Goldilox3Trillion in FRNs#1315154/21/05; 16:06:26

@ TC,

Of course, if they were 3 notes of 1 $T each, they not only got busted, they got swindled by DHL for $56K in shipping costs, as well! LOL

My question of course, is who could fence that amount of $ quietly? It's pretty hard to hide a billion, but 3000 billions? After all, it took HUD 20 years to lose one trillion according to Catherine Austin-Fitts.

Just for funsies, that value of gold would probably have required a whole container ship or two: 2 billion ounces = 62000 M tonnes, right? That's about 50,000 Toyotas by weight.

Sounds like a media folk tale in a lot of ways.

Black BladeGreenspan warns of rising deficits#1315164/21/05; 16:06:49


Fed Chairman says the economy is at risk of stagnation "or worse."

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned Thursday that unless lawmakers come to grips with spiraling deficits, the U.S. economy was at risk of stagnation "or worse."

Black Blade: The response on Wall Street - stock market indices soar in a frenzy of buying. Wall Street players have lost their minds!

Black BladeInvestors are very worried about rising rates -- and sluggish growth. Is stagflation a threat?#1315174/21/05; 16:09:25


A not-so-fun 'stag' party?

Bears run wild: Fears of inflation, a weak economy and sluggish earnings growth have sent stocks reeling this year.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) – Investors are doing a lot of worrying lately. Some are biting their fingernails about rising interest rates and higher inflation, while others are gnashing their teeth about signs economic growth is slowing.

Black Blade: And Wall Street bulls run wild on the news. Go figure.

TownCrierGoldilox, on $56K in shipping costs for three notes#1315184/21/05; 16:09:59

Uhhhhhhhh.... it was the insurance coverage that racked up the bill. Yeah, that's the ticket.


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GoldiloxStag Party#1315204/21/05; 16:22:07


Of course, the market looks 6 months ahead for "value", right?

If we fall back tomorrow, I wonder what one day event six months out was being predicted?


Black BladeCrude Rallies to Close Higher#1315214/21/05; 16:25:41


"Today's spike (in gasoline) is essentially a further indication of the extent to which prices are being driven by traders who lack an understanding of the physical market," said Tim Evans, senior market analyst at IFR Markets.

On Wednesday, the Energy Department and the American Petroleum Institute reported unexpected declines in U.S. crude and gasoline supplies.

"As traders dug deeper into the numbers, they seemed to realize that there is more than adequate crude supply going into summer," said Kevin Kerr, president of Kerr Trading International. "This does not solve the unleaded problem, however. Demand will continue to build for unleaded and we may see the unleaded price rise while the crude price continues to fall sharply."

Black Blade: Crude and gasoline prices gained as they should have. What some traders like Mr. Evans in the article fails to understand is that US inventories are largely heavy crude at a time when refiners for the most part require light sweet crude for the summer driving season. Light sweet crude is in short supply amid increasing demand. So even with increasing crude inventories it is quite easy to understand why gasoline inventories are in decline and the price increases. Add to this the fact that Saudi production of light sweet crude has peaked and higher cost extraction is a must in order to replenish declining reserves.

What does Wall Street think? Today the Bulls ran wild in the exchanges. Go figure.

Black BladeGold Argentinos#1315224/21/05; 16:28:04

Only a little while until the deal is done? Hopefully more will make another rare appearance. All I can say is "get em' while ya can".

- Black Blade

Black BladeMoney Manager Dresses Down Foolish Gold Mining CEOs#1315234/21/05; 16:50:11

A good article by Tim Wood (see link). This is exactly what I have pounded the table about since 1998! Gold company CEOs are for the most part complete morons and one prime example I pounded on was Randall Oliphant, the former CEO of Barrick and fool extraordinaire who came up with the "brilliant" idea to sell forward several years of production (at the lowest gold prices possible too I might add). I am sure that the owners of Barrick are feeling quite happy about that. Chairman Peter Munk (aka "The Munky Man") had to bow to pressure from the companies owners (aka "Stockholders") and unceremoniously show Mr. Oliphant the door.

Did the mega-hedgers learn their lesson? I seriously doubt it but am hopeful. They have a tendency to cut their own throats (especially at the worst time). The few brave companies like Newmont, GoldCorp, Harmony, Glamis, Meridian, and GoldFields came through for the owners by holding true to the wishes of the owners. These companies weathered the storm even at the hands of the self-destructive miners like AngloGold, Barrick, and Placer Dome. They did more damage to the Gold market during the "dark years" than anyone will ever know. However, they now sit buried under unproductive hedgebooks - I call that Karma!

- Black Blade

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Thursday market excerpts

April 21 (from Reuters) -- U.S. gold futures settled lower on Thursday as profit taking by speculators dogged the precious metals after prices hit one-month highs. Still, the yellow metal remained supported at lower levels by doubts about the dollar and fears about inflation and slower economic growth, trading sources said.

COMEX June gold contracts settled down $2.30 at $434.40. "Gold is pausing after having had a $10 run-up in the last few days," said George Gero, a director of the International Precious Metals Institute.

Gero added that reports this week that the U.S. Mint plans to offer the first 24-karat gold bullion coin in U.S. history next year also lent a positive tone to the market. The U.S. Mint, which wants to begin selling the coin by early in 2006, sees the coin's price as being pegged to the world bullion price, according to newspaper reports on Tuesday.

Gold has seen some "safe haven" interest this week amid growing concerns about the threat of inflation to U.S. economic growth that has pressured the greenback, analysts said.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned on Thursday that unless lawmakers come to grips with spiraling U.S. deficits, the economy was at risk of stagnation "or worse." Although 1970s-style high inflation and recession apparently are not in the cards, a diluted version of stagflation could take place in which rising prices push economic growth below trend, economists have warned.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)----

YGMWouldn't 'THIS' Move Gold + and Dollar -#1315254/21/05; 17:59:58

April 21 (REUTERS) -- Bank of China has threatened to "vigorously sell U.S. Treasury holdings" and exchange a portion of them for gold bullion in open market purchases, Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing told Reuters on Thursday.

Asked about U.S. pressure for China to float the yuan and the possibility of Beijing changing its policy, Li said "we are tired of the bullying and must act based on the interests of China and its Asian neighbors".

Li's comments came just days after President Bush appeared to be forcefully demanding that China float the yuan and was urging Beijing to take that step as soon as possible.

U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow also pressured China to make the yuan more flexible, saying it was a top priority for the administration's international economic policy.

The yuan, also known as the renminbi, is pegged at about 8.28 to the dollar, a policy that has come under increasing criticism from the United States and others who say its makes Chinese exports unfairly cheap.

China holds are large portion of U.S Treasury instruments, and wields great power in determining how much of the U.S. trade deficit Asian nations are wiling to finance.

The U.S. dollar was crushed in NY Access trading, and spot gold was quoted up $2

FlaccusYGM#1315264/21/05; 19:15:09

Do you have a link to that article?
ChallyYGM---- THAT WAS; 19:44:00

...incredibly...unimaginably...heartlessly sadistic AND

My first reaction was "HOLY CRAP (stronger) the S??T has finally hit the FAN!......
..but after over 1 hour searching news sources for confirmation of that 'story' I must admit I've been snookered!

Ya know folks could react and lose money over a 'joke' like this.

I'd be watchin' over my shoulder if I were you......

On the other hand, a link to the story conveys hero status to you and yours ;-)

YGMThat's why I said "Wouldn't" this....#1315284/21/05; 19:52:40

Richard 640 posted it over the hill (@17:24) and left no link. Many are waitng for his return. I'm sure he wouldn't have made it up. He's a serious successful trader and a poster of MANY years, so I'll take it as real for now. I also looked under the carpet and all around, googled myself silly trying for the link to no avail...YGM
GoldiloxYGM's Reuters story#1315294/21/05; 19:55:05

@ YGM,

I also Googled high and wide for a reference to no avail.

Another clue was your gold quote of a $2 rise. It added a certain twist that was too cute to be valid. A real event of this nature would probably inspire a moon shot in gold, price suppression or no!

My final clue was the words of the Chinese minister. He would probably be drawn and quartered for such openly poor diplomacy. Ministers aren't allowed to speak so candidly, or too many people might understand them. They would also likely be fightin' words.

If your story is real please validate it, otherwise the joke's on us.

YGMChina & Gold Post....#1315304/21/05; 20:04:10

I think after being part of the Round Table here for 6+ years I'd know better and have more class than to make up some wild freakin news story & post it. As I say we're waiting for R640 to come back online as he's a daily poster @ G-E and validate it.. He's also been around for MANY years and isn't given to poor taste jokes. (BUT one never knows 1st time for everything)....YGM
ChallyYGM.......Could you be so kind....#1315314/21/05; 20:10:57 to direct me to the location of "over the hill"?

What is it, another gold forum? first clue was the NY ACCESS quotes. I saw no move at all to the upside, since the evening session began.In fact,at the time gold as off another half buck.

YGMyes another forum..#1315324/21/05; 20:15:05

but it's not proper netiquete to give a link to it. There is the Bald-Eagle and the G--- Eagle
Gandalf the WhiteTHE "KING OF THE HILL" REPORT for Thursday ~#1315334/21/05; 20:49:32

Sir "TC" posted today: "COMEX June gold contracts settled down $2.30 at $434.40".
THEREFORE, Thursday KING of the HILL is:
$$$$ $434.4 $$$$ J-Bullion (4/13/05; 09:58:54MT - msg#: 131145)
Sir J-Bullion is the "KING of the HILL", with one more day to go.
Congrats, and HANG ON !!

Dollar Bill.,.#1315344/21/05; 21:00:45

YGM, It would make sense to me that the news you posted would be suppressed quickly and totally. Erased from any searchable sources pronto.
Here is a Doug Nolan piece that I tried to make as short as seemed possible. He may be on to something just occurring. "

I believe it is very important analytically to appreciate that it has always been a case of from what degree of excess this Risk Bubble would eventually burst. The Key Issues Have Been Financial Sphere Issues, and at the top of the list is that the Fed used the leveraged speculating community as a fundamental reflating mechanism. Fed reflationary policies incited systemic Monetary Disorder – speculative and liquidity excesses that completely distorted the demand and pricing for Risk (securities, derivatives, lending, housing, etc.). Writing insurance (Credit Default Swaps) on GM, Ford and other risky Credits became virtually free money – month after month, quarter after quarter. And declining risk premiums – lower cost of funds – stimulated debt issuance. Credit Availability made a phenomenal comeback. The return of liquidity to the corporate bond market then fueled a "virtuous cycle" of narrower spreads, a more robust business environment, higher equity prices, improved confidence and only greater speculative appetite for risk-taking (including fueling a Bubble in Credit default swaps). Risk premiums narrowed dramatically, while those on the wrong side of trades were forced to take (leveraged) long positions in the underlying bonds and stocks – which only further stoked the self-reinforcing asset inflation and boom cycle.

Bull markets create their own liquidity – and always nurture the perception of endless liquidity. The Bubble in Risk has been no exception. And as long as the crowd hankered to play risk – including writing Credit and market insurance - there was going to be continued downward pressure on risk premiums, upward pressure on bond and stock prices, greater liquidity excesses, increasingly robust economic conditions, and only more emboldened speculators. There was going to be escalating leverage in the system (stocks, bonds and aggressive lending), along with an ambiguous leveraging of speculative risk-taking (CDS and other derivatives).

For example, let's say the price for writing insurance against default at GM was 300 basis points a year (3%). And while GM may have "only" a few hundred billion of debt, the speculative interest in pocketing those 300 basis points of premium ("free money") was significantly larger. Aggressive hedge funds had an appetite to write, say, $500 billion "notional," intending to pocket $15 billion of annual premiums. "Street" derivative players gladly accommodate the trade, hedging their exposure by acquiring a partial long position in the underlying bonds, and everyone was happy. And as premiums declined and market liquidity flourished, the demand for easy profits from writing CDS became intense. The self-reinforcing demand for CDS, the underlying bonds, and resulting marketplace liquidity also supported a high GM stock price, which then supported only lower bond and CDS risk premiums. Yet perceived "virtuous cycle" was in reality a precarious Bubble of Risk.

There is just no way around some things. The speculation and liquidity induced collapse in risk premiums must eventually face the true reality of GM's dismal financial condition and prospects (certainly made worse by the concurrent inflationary spike in healthcare, steel and energy prices!). The speculative Bubble in GM Risk – a historic mis-pricing of risk in the marketplace - was pierced when the company announced a major earnings shortfall. This immediately incited a move to unwind bets and liquidity evaporated. The huge crowd that had so handsomely profited by writing GM Credit insurance rushed to unwind and/or hedge their trades. Many speculators would attempt to short GM bonds to offset their risk to widening spreads, but the size ("notional") of the bets placed during the Bubble ended up at multiples of the underlying tradable bonds. With derivatives and hedging, the size of the trade didn't matter – that is, liquidity was no issue when trades were being put on.

Meanwhile, the derivative players – dynamically trading their exposure using sophisticated hedging models – dump their bond holdings and attempt to get positioned short. Other opportunistic speculators, appreciating the unfolding train wreck, begin aggressively shorting GM bonds and stock. Selling pressure leads to a spike in risk premiums and more aggressive efforts to unwind, hedge and place bearish bets against GM risk. And with Credit Availability quickly disappearing for GM, the company's prospects take a decided turn for the worst. Liquidity quickly disappears for GM bonds, and speculators and hedgers are forced to sell GM stock as a means of shorting GM "risk." When liquidity disappears in the stock, sellers must then turn to shorting related companies or simply the more liquid market futures contracts. GM bond market illiquidity feeds GM stock market illiquidity, quickly spilling over into the general marketplace. Simultaneously, similar dynamics are leading to contagious dislocations, first in Ford, then the auto supply companies, and increasingly throughout the leveraged industrials, and other companies impacted by the expanding financial dislocation. Players throughout the CDS market re-evaluate the risk and liquidity dynamics of their strategies and the Risk markets generally. How long until the storm hits the financials?"

The CoinGuyGold Article...#1315354/21/05; 22:25:09

The article is a spoof.


The CoinGuy

Smeagolvery sstill now, precious... wait for it...#1315364/21/05; 23:00:03

April 21, 2005
Beware The Commercial Pounce
By Brady Willett

"Since the beginning of COT (March 1995), the commercials have only held a net short position as a percentage of open interest of more than 44% three times. In two of these instances – April 6 and April 12, 2004 – the extremely large commercial short position presaged a massive decline in the price of gold. As for the only other time that the net commercial short position as percentage of open interest has been above 44%, it was last week… (chart) (more)"


YGMDollar Bill & Coin Guy#1315374/21/05; 23:34:42

It definately wouldn't be the first time such an article was pulled. And it definately is not the first time recently that a Chinese Central banker made an unwanted statement. We'll see what R 640 has to say about it tomorrow.
CaradocIRS seizures#1315384/22/05; 00:01:49

The houses IRS has seized and put up for auction this month are a lot more upscale than what has been typical over the two years I've been keeping track. A possible Trail marker?


PS: The one in Grants Pass, Oregon, looks interesting.

968"Golden" opportunity for China.#1315394/22/05; 00:38:45

"A peg to gold would inject flexible market dynamics into the yuan's exchange rate without risking the repercussions of conventional currency adjustment alternatives." AP
More on the China issue. Thoughts anyone ? Randy ?

The CoinGuyCaradoc...#1315404/22/05; 00:50:10

Enjoyed the Coming Soon section. Trump Tower.

YGM, the original article stated at the bottom....just kidding. I'd imagine that about sums it up. Although The Standard article I read does sound promising. Thanks to 869 for posting it.



Black BladeGold investment analyst to be a new profession #1315414/22/05; 03:13:48


Providing professional advice about investment in gold is set to be approved as another new profession in China, a country with deeply rooted tradition of gold worship.

By the end of 2004, there were more 1,200 gold mines employing some 400,000 people and more than 300 large and middle-sized gold processing enterprises hiring more than 200,000 workers in China. About 700,000 people are working in approximately 10,000 gold ornaments shops across the country, constituting another footnote for the rapid growth of the industry.

Black Blade: Once physical gold becomes available in China through an expansion of retail outlets we should see an explosion in demand.

Black BladeGeological pedigree sparks hopes for Falklands gold find #1315424/22/05; 03:25:08


THE only mines on the Falkland Islands at present are the type that explode. But if South African mining entrepreneur Richard Linnell fulfills his dream, the islands which saw bloody fighting in the early 1980s could double their gross domestic product — thanks to a gold mine.

Black Blade: Interesting.

Black BladeSaudi fails to assure US over oil supply#1315434/22/05; 03:58:39


Saudi Arabia failed to provide the United States with any new promises or assurances over oil supplies ahead of a key meeting between Crown Prince Abdullah and George W. Bush at the president's ranch in Crawford, Texas on Monday. Mr Bush voiced concerns this week about Saudi Arabian production and the country's ability to increase output in the event of a severe supply disruption. His comments are the most vocal since he became president, and mark a departure from protocol by a US president about the world's biggest oil exporter, and former special friend.

Black Blade: As Saudi has hit peak production this should be interesting. Oh to be a fly on the wall for this meeting. Saudi claims of mucho excess capacity have yet to be proven after years of threats to increase production - obviously they can't do it. The consequences for the global economy are dire amid growing energy demand and increased competition from China and India.

Black BladeThe Insana-Bush Files#1315444/22/05; 04:08:26


(from the CNBC interview between Ron Insana of CNBC and President George W. Bush)

Insana: Let me ask you about that specifically --

President Bush: Sure.

Insana: -- because Crown Prince Abdullah from Saudi Arabia is coming to Crawford at the end of the month.

President Bush: Right.

Insana: What are you going to tell him about that?

President Bush: Well, I'm going to explain to him that, you know, a, a, a, high-price crude oil will hurt the international economy.

Insana: Can he do anything about it? The Saudis are pumping flat out.

President Bush: Well, they're not yet. I don't think they're pumping flat out. I do think you're right, I think they're near capacity, and so we've just got, got to get a straight answer from the government as to what they think their excess capacity is. I, I don't think "flat out" is the right description. On the other hand, it is certainly not the way it was in the past, where they had, you know, millions of barrels of excess capacity. Nevertheless, there may be some things we can do. We can make sure that people aren't getting cheated, you know. In other words, that there's fair pricing, market pricing.

But this is a -- this, this, this, this price of gasoline should be a wake-up call to the United States Congress to get an energy bill passed that encourages conservation, encourages exploration for hydrocarbons in environmentally friendly ways, causes us to open up more, you know, portals for liquefied natural gas to come from around the world. I mean, there's a lot of things we need to do. I am for safe nuclear energy expansion. I'm for clean coal technologies. I know ultimately the automobile manufacturers, if the marketplace so demands, are going to have to come up with a different mixture of fuels and automobiles.

Black Blade: Interesting but an adnmission that Saudi production is just about tapped out. Meanwhile China has made deals with Venezuela, Sudan, Iran, Russia, and China (among other places) for oil and natgas while India has been on the hunt in Iran and elsewhere for depleting global reserves - the scenario of "The Rise and Fall of Hydrocarbon Man" is playing out.

Black BladeWill oil strike $380 a barrel by 2015?#1315454/22/05; 04:18:24


A steep rise in prices is expected due to growing energy demands

A report prepared by energy economists at the French investment bank Ixis-CIB has warned crude oil prices could touch $380 a barrel by 2015. Analysts Patrick Artus and Moncef Kaabi said in the next 10 years demand for oil will outstrip supply by around 8 million barrels per day (mbpd).

"If one takes into account the level of previous oil shocks such as in the 1970's, we don't think a price level of $380 per barrel is out of the question," they said.

Black Blade: Shades of the 1970's when we had the Arab Oil Embargo, The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan, and the Iraq-Iran War..... and when we had long lines at the gas pump along with rationing. We also saw that Gold and Silver was the primo "portfolio insurance" against the ravages of ensuing stagflation. Get ready for round 2.

Black BladeIran tries to win friends using its fuel reserves#1315464/22/05; 04:28:59


Iran's ruling clerics are meticulously arranging energy sales and building partnerships with influential countries, including China and India, as a way to win stronger friendships around the world. This complicates the Bush administration's attempt to isolate Iran, which holds 10 percent of the world's oil deposits and has the second-largest gas reserves.

Black Blade: Looks like 10% of global reserves are going bye bye. At least not to the west.

Black BladeOil production could peak next year - Just kiss your lifestyle goodbye #1315474/22/05; 04:40:06,13026,1464050,00.html


The one thing that international bankers don't want to hear is that the second Great Depression may be round the corner. But last week, a group of ultra-conservative Swiss financiers asked a retired English petroleum geologist living in Ireland to tell them about the beginning of the end of the oil age.

Black Blade: As always - I have said to get prepared. You just never know and prepared is the best way to sleep at nights.

Black BladeInevitable oil squeeze draws near#1315484/22/05; 04:52:55


Goodbye, cheap gasoline. The days of tooling around in automobiles with nary a thought of the cost are probably over. That's because the world's oil production is rapidly approaching its peak. At that point, the world will be faced with a steady decline in supply just as demand for petroleum takes off in places such as China and India.

Already, production in Britain, Norway, and 16 other major oil-producing nations is slipping, analysts say. Now comes a report that the world's biggest oil field - Gharwar in Saudi Arabia - has started to decline.

Black Blade: It took some time for this story to break in the mainstream media even as I wrote about this a few years ago - and yet Wall Street and Washington DC movers and shakers sat on their thumbs. should get both "interesting" and "entertaining" for those of us who took the time to get prepared for the inevitable - "The Grasshopper and the Ant" - Aesop.

Black BladeOil importers urge capacity investment#1315494/22/05; 04:58:15


PARIS - With crude prices persistently high and global demand growing, oil importing states urged exporting countries on Thursday to increase their production capacities and lift barriers to foreign investment.

Black Blade: Problem is that most oil exporting countries can't raise production becuase it would irreparably damage existing reservoirs and they have no spare capacity anyway. We are at "Peak Oil" production or at least very damn close. I would say that most in the western nations have been caught with their pants down around their ankles.

Black BladeCongress Fiddles While Oil Burns#1315504/22/05; 05:08:14


American drivers might as well get used to it. Rising world demand for oil has pushed gasoline prices to new highs, and they're likely to stay high as the era of easy-to-find oil appears nearly over.

Black Blade: The party is over for "cheap energy". Get prepared or grab your ankles. We are looking at a return to the "Stagflation" of the 1970's and the only recourse for intelligent investors was a modest holding in Gold and Silver. Better get used to high energy prices from here on out.

Black BladeDevice offers at-home natural-gas fill-ups#1315514/22/05; 05:24:32


LOS ANGELES — Soon, commuters who opt to drive natural-gas-powered vehicles may be able to fill up every night at home in their own garages — and leave gasoline stations behind.

Black Blade: Perhaps one way to get prepared is natgas-powered autos. Hmmm...

SundeckChina and Gold plus Godsell on Gold #1315524/22/05; 05:52:52

Here is a repeat of what the Governor Zhou Xiaochuan of the Peoples Bank of China had to say at the 2004 London Bullion Market Association Annual Precious Metals Conference held in Shanghai on Sep. 6, 2004....

Old news, maybe, but worth a refresher on the importance and determination that China is attaching to gold. The people are being actively encouraged to invest in gold in full recognition of its enduring financial and wealth-preserving roles.

Compare with the "golden silence" in some other quarters of the World's financial scene...

As an ordinary commodity, gold has become a consumption product for the urban and rural residents after the reform and opening up. The gold market can meet the demand of the consumers, and the gold producing or consuming enterprises. But gold is yet to be cultivated as a financial instrument for investment and store of value. Transaction of gold as a financial product is still restricted in China, and it has not been brought into full play the financing function of the gold market.

How can we transform the gold market into a financial market from its present stage as a commodity market? The current situation presents individual investment in gold as a realistic answer to this question. Our total domestic household savings amount to as high as 12 trillion RMB, readily conditioned for investment in gold or rather turning the asset of the ordinary people from currency into gold. From the macro-economic perspective, it creates an additional channel to convert savings into investment balancing the demand and supply. From the micro-economic perspective, allowing people to hold assets in gold can improve social welfare benefiting both the country and its people. Also, the dual characters of being an ordinary commodity and a currency allow gold to well hedge against risks. So it is practical to develop individual gold trading business.


An interview with Bobby Godsell appeared in today's Australian Financial Review. He describes the proposed IMF sales as "morally perverse" because of their potential impact on poor-country producers and state revenues. He also emphasises the increasing role of gold as diversification in investment portfolios and the importance of its deregulation in China. He thinks the concept of gold as jewellery needs revamping to make it more in keeping with modern lifestyles. Again he emphasises the rising importance of gold in China where per capita wealth is greater than India, but where gold consumption is only a quarter of India's...populations being similar.

Black Blade: Thank you for the recent deluge of oil-posts....compelling reading.

Dollar Bill.,.#1315534/22/05; 06:10:24

"Warren Buffett, of unquestioned integrity, is now caught up in the Greenberg/AIG deal, of which he knew. The fact that on March 29, Berkshire said in a statement repeated in the WSJ 3/30 that Mr. Buffett "WAS NOT BRIEFED ON HOW THE TRANSACTIONS WERE STRUCTURED OR ON ANY IMPROPER USE OR PURPOSE OF THE TRANSACTIONS." Leaves two possibilities. 1) He is dissimilating or 2) the size of Berkshire and General Re, the complexity of financial engineering and some generalizations by a, presumably, trusted subordinate after a non-detail conversation with Greenberg previously, left Buffett feeling comfortable about a questionable transaction.
We are inclined towards 2 above and that makes the point of the thesis: The best, most honest, brightest of CEO's cannot possibly stay on top of what goes on in these complicated financial megaliths. If the presumed honest, such as Buffett cannot, how can anybody believe that it is possible in the convoluted world of an AIG, driven by a CEO consumed by the company's stock price (per statements by Wall St. analysts on the pressure from "Hank" for laudatory comments) and executives, motivated by excessive compensation for achievement of outlandish financial goals, that anyone within the company actually knows what is really going on. AIG is clearly out of control and only time will tell the order of magnitude. The question is how many other Financial Giants and BFB's (Big Famous Banks) are in similar condition. The bonuses to the CEO's are still given a la B of A where there is clear evidence the troops were out of control, based on a Board's ridiculous excuses for "performance against goals" which obviously did not include having a spotless record in terms of regulatory, compliance or integrity to customers. Buffett himself has said that nobody can analyze entities such as Fannie Mae and he has likened derivatives to "financial weapons of mass destruction" but, nevertheless, finds himself beset within his own company. Jim Grant, of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, an analyst truly worthy of respect, finds the FNM's and JPM's beyond analysis"

Dollar Bill.,.#1315544/22/05; 07:00:46

I guess these posts are my response to the inflation discussion on the forum. It all made excellent sense, but since the foundations are rotten, it may collapse before the inflation route gets a chance to fully emerge.
"The Fed had to jigger the Z1 report in the last year by revaluing upward U.S. held "Non-Financial" assets(old bricks and mortar) by $900 billion to keep our net due foreigners below $5Trillion (It just exceeded that amount again).. and the current account deficit will accelerate as rates rise and what we have to pay on debt accelerates. The domestic deficit is exploding and the consumer is sucking wind. If the market and/or the regulators slow the breakneck pace of credit creation previously detailed, the worst numerator (Bad Loans) is going to inexorably rise. Even if another $1.4-1.5 trillion in new mortgage credit plus corporations going berserk in capital spending were to be in the cards, there are ripplings of discontent in some of the zombie buyers in Asia. The Fed either has to keep raising rates or lose credibility and the famous "carry" trade will either require leverage even the prime brokers must be able to smell or will start to diminish."

"Housing's parallel to the American debt position is irresistible. We are making unspectacular gains based heavily on massive capital inflows that must be repaid. Now we face prospects of much lower inflows and rising interest rates. This is creating a household and national debt fragility of epic proportion."

Black BladeGold above $433 on China talk #1315554/22/05; 07:41:27


Spot gold was trading higher on Friday on speculation that China will revalue its yuan. The dollar fell to a one-month low against the Japanese yen on Friday, as renewed speculation that China could soon move to revalue its currency helped the Japanese unit.

The dollar lost ground after US Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan on Thursday joined a growing chorus of US officials calling for China to abandon the yuan's peg to the dollar, which has been in place since December 1993.

Any revaluation of the Chinese yuan is expected to put upward pressure on a broad range of Asian currencies, especially the other pegged currencies such as the Hong Kong dollar - pegged to the dollar since 1983 - and the Malaysian ringgit, which has been pegged to the dollar since 1998.

Greenspan said in testimony on the budget process that growing economic pressure will compel China to alter its currency policy at some point, and the sooner it happens the better.

Black Blade: Of course China has not commited to any change from the current Yuan-Dollar peg, but only said in effect that they will "think about it".

Black BladeGold Heads for Biggest Weekly Gain in Six #1315564/22/05; 07:46:24


``The dollar gave way this week, which was a catalyst for gold,'' Andy Maag, executive director of precious metals sales at UBS AG in Geneva, said by telephone. The dollar is headed for the second weekly decline against the euro in six weeks as some traders scaled back expectations for how many times the Fed will raise interest rates. Gold may rise to between $430 and $438 an ounce next week, Maag said. ``Inflation is coming back, so it makes a lot of sense to have a hedge against the dollar,'' he said. Gold is also attractive ``against a weakening stock market,'' Maag said.

Gold also rose this week as higher U.S. consumer prices heightened investors' concerns about inflation. The U.S. consumer price index rose a more-than-expected 0.6 percent in March, the Labor Department said on April 20. Gold becomes more appealing for some investors when inflation erodes the value of fixed- income securities.

Black Blade: Looks like a go for Stagflation.

mikal@Black Blade#1315574/22/05; 08:05:21

If oil is a currency, it doesn't look
to be fulfilling the G7's wish for stable
and orderly adjustments. Unless relative to the
havoc today's speculators and funds can wreak in just minutes. But Oil is beginning to smell rarified...

Re: natural gas auto and fill-up device
Interesting. But as it appears there isn't enough natural gas infrastructure or refineries, let alone new wells for future needs, widespread(major) use is unlikely.
The car and NG home fill-up device look to be unstoppable
both as a clean-air political statement and a definite step in the right direction. Combined with electric cars, scooters and mass transit- no stop-gap measure. Bush recently admitted, in an interview with Ron Insana that various different types of choices would be needed to reduce gasoline reliance.
I'm not foolish enough to think NG cars are here to stay
since alternative energy must and will continue to evolve
and wrest consumption away from fossil fuel.
Arguably, not just oil but the entire energy complex including NG is a currency.

WhitewaterwomanConspicuously missing...BICYCLES!#1315584/22/05; 08:16:10

Conspicuously missing from all the debate over alternates to cars and such (like light rail, hybrids, scooters, etc) are any mention of human-powered transportation such as BICYCLING and WALKING. It requires only food energy, and would solve that nasty old American obesity epidemic overnight.

The fact that human-powered transportation doesn't even merit a mention tells me just how lazy we've become as a society...

Bikes can be outfitted with panniers and such to carry groceries--people ride bikes cross-country all the time!

As someone who enjoys cycling and mountain biking, I'd strongly recommend every American (including all adults) own at least one bike, prefereably a mountain bike (since you can ride them anywhere--roads, trails, jeep roads...) AND spare parts for it such as tubes, tires, patch kit, pump, etc. Nothing like getting in shape AND having an alternate mode of transportation!

YGMThe China Buying Gold Article....#1315594/22/05; 08:47:07

Apparently R640 was scammed as he reposted it from another site, and like myself was fooled by trust in the poster.
Not his fault, but makes one appreciate those who post links to what they find. One thing about the fantasy tho, China is fully capable of doing exactly what was written if they get pushed hard and long enough. Food for thought...YGM

YGMGold up on Real China Talk.#1315604/22/05; 08:59:12

Depegging Yuan could lead to higher Gold anyways.
YGMWhat if China Pegged Yuan to Gold#1315614/22/05; 09:01:11

Go for it China!
mikalChina ways and means#1315624/22/05; 09:04:14

YGM- Re: "China is capable..." Yes. But we'll get there
anyway one way or ANOTHER. Seems China and the West have similar "ways and means" and committees that Fed Chairman Mao Tse Greentung might view with admiration:

How China's leverage grows
By Karl Schoenberger - Mercury News - 04-22-05
[Excerpt reprinted by permission under Fair Use Doctrine of International Copyright Law]
"A group of China specialists gathered Thursday at Stanford University for a two-day hearing on China's technology development and the challenges and opportunities it poses for the United States tech industry. The scholars and security experts testified before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, painting a complex picture of the role technology has played in China's rapid rise as an economic powerhouse. Congress created the 12-member commission in 2000 and charged it with investigating the ``national security implications of bilateral trade and economic relationship´´ between the United States and China.
The opening hearing before the commission took place as America's trade deficit with China has ballooned, reaching $162 billion last year. Among the major allegations critics level against China are that it manipulates its currency to gain advantages in trade, it creates hidden barriers to foreign imports and fails to protect the intellectual property rights of U.S. companies."

Cometosesilver flag 720 floor#1315634/22/05; 09:53:52

Something very interesting is going on in the markets since december

December /Jan began the fall in the major market indexes...
December also marked the latest assault on the GOld /SIlver price....

Gold and Silver look better when they are moving down to the Paper Banker Equity Treasury Community .....and they have been going down a lot ...some say twice as many days as they go up ..........eventually they have to make up for shorter number of days on the long side with greater moves on the shorter days....

In the past 3.5 years or since the bottom in the gold market....the gold and equities market have been going up in tandem so the movement in the gold and silver market hasn't been near as noticeable ....especially since the equities sector has been getting spanked more dramatically on a regular basis to appear as the weaker step sister to the other issues traded in these markets........

I have bad news and good news.........that trend and tendency is about to change .......This bad news is bad news for the PAPER CHASERS......and FLUFF endorsers : those who think they can continuously paper over this PILE OF POOPICAH they have unwittingly and from diverse quarters working independently created.....because of low interest rates.......( who is the lever puller who fuels the furnace of the LOVE OF MONEY /////greedy ***turds)

The good news is that ........SIlver and GOld are going to now continue trending upward as the STOCK MARKET trends downward.........

Stepping out from the daily FRAY of the activity my begin to be able to see the forest despite the trees....
and do as RICHARD RUSSELL has said .......from a very general view and be SHORT THE STOCK MARKET AND LONG THE METALS.. He believes as I do that the DOW (3000) at some level in the future will sell for one oz of GOLD (3000).

I read and article from Kitco I thought last night that described a type of gangrene or cancer working its way through the PAPER MARKETS.........I think it was NOLAN ..
all fueled on the underestimation of Derivitive RIsk (chief dominoe being GM BOND RISK DERIVITIVES- now spreading elsewhere).

I think that next week , we may get a telltale sign that all these things are so ( it isn't going to be a small sign) ....

From that point , all investors should take additional precaution against paper weakness in these markets to protect themselves from any unraveling (eventuality) that is too follow....

geHulbert Sentiment Index#1315644/22/05; 09:54:33

"An extraordinary thing happened earlier this month among the gold and bond market timing newsletters monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest."

"The average adviser in both camps became extremely bearish."

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Last day of offer. Don't miss out!#1315654/22/05; 10:01:45

April Buyers' Group
Argentinos -- offer ends at 5:00pm today!
Argentina gold coins

Shop online or phone for addtional savings.
Call today, save today!

CometosePoopicah#1315664/22/05; 10:08:52

crashing equity markets usually give instant bouyancy to the dollar .......Money market funds are usually interest bearing GOVT PAPER .................

Crashing equity markets might therefore initially keep the metals markets in check .........

question is???????????? WHich comes first ........??

a break out in the METALS MARKETS or an EQUITY debacle....


At this point , I believe that the control freaks that played all these paper games derived from computer model Actuarial SCHEMATICS have lost CONTROL.....and the holes in the DIKE continue to appear in places that they cannot reach fast enough to contain.......

I call it a SH*TSTORM........
THere are some things in Nature that have been put here as a lesson to us......about CONTROL.....


STAY OUT OF THEIR PATH when they occur!!!!


I would imagine....

is probably lying to you ......

It doesn't matter that the speaker that claims these things
is from TV and you are not .......

or that he is a seasoned veteran of the financial markets...

SOMEONE who is a seasoned veteran of these markets
who is the authorities authority and AG 's predecessor ( who is also outside the loop now so to speak ) did speak last weak ........

NOT A WALL STREET GROUPIE , but someone you might ought to listen to:

PAUL VOLKER ........former Chairman of the FEDERAL RESERVE

Gandalf the WhiteSir Black Blade !#1315674/22/05; 10:18:35

HOW MUCH coffee did you HAVE the morning ?
Keep them coming !!

Gandalf the White<;-(#1315684/22/05; 10:19:52

THIS -- not the !
I need another cup.

GoldiloxBicycles and motorcycles#1315694/22/05; 10:26:15

@ Whitewaterwoman,

Here in this military coastal town, motorcycles and bicycles are both selling well. The marines buy motorcycles for transportation and recreation. Retirees are buying bicycles and using them with the buses to evade the exploding costs of fuel and its effects on their fixed incomes.

GoldiloxBush Touts Social Security to Salesmen - Apologist-in-Chief#1315704/22/05; 10:50:14


By NEDRA PICKLER Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON Apr 21, 2005 — President Bush served as pitchman in chief Thursday as he touted his Social Security plan to a roomful of salesmen.

Speaking to the Independent Insurance Agents and Brokers of America, Bush ticked off a series of figures aimed at convincing them that Social Security is headed for bankruptcy and that Americans could earn more for their retirement if they were allowed to invest a portion of their payroll taxes in stocks and bonds.


Notice that the Prez picks his audiences better than they pick investments. If he were to choose a broader audience than the very hucksters who stand to benefit from his SSI windfall, he might tick off a lot more figures! One of his greatest political strategies is NEVER speak anywhere that dissidence could find a foothold, i.e. sell the war to military contractors and sell the economic "reform" to brokers.

As the struggling DOW bounced 200 points during his speech, we might be seeing him on CNBC even more in the near future. Sir AG and the Snowman are no longer adequate pitchmen, so the CEO of the US$ now has to fortify their pitiful performances - not unlike a corporate CEO taking to the road when his salesmen have been tossed out of the customer's site!

Dollar assets, look out below!

GoldiloxPeak Oil News & Blues#1315714/22/05; 11:07:48


Remember, Peak Oil doesn't mean out of oil, it just means that there is more demand that supply at current prices.

Speaking of which, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. who works for an offshore oil outfit down on the Gulf, mentioned that: "Looks like another squeeze on supply is the lack of contractors to install pipelines and platforms. Our schedule is filling up fast for the year and into next. We are bidding at day rate and can't stop getting jobs. I have never seen a situation like this since I've been in the sector, but the old timers say it is like the 80s again."

Let me think back here - ah yes, wasn't the 1980's when we had inflation going nuts?


George nails the details again over at Urbansurvival. His "little" underground economics site is now pulling 100K hits a WEEK! Not shabby!

GoldiloxPeak Oil analysis#1315724/22/05; 11:16:01,13026,1464050,00.html


According to Campbell and other oil industry sources, the two most widely used estimates of world oil reserves, drawn up by the Oil and Gas Journal and the BP Statistical Review, both rely on reserve estimates provided to them by governments and industry and do not question their accuracy.

Companies, says Campbell, "under-report their new discoveries to comply with strict US stock exchange rules, but then revise them upwards over time", partly to boost their share prices with "good news" results. "I do not think that I ever told the truth about the size of a prospect. That was not the game we were in," he says. "As we were competing for funds with other subsidiaries around the world, we had to exaggerate."

Most serious of all, he and other oil depletion analysts and petroleum geologists, most of whom have been in the industry for years, accuse the US of using questionable statistical probability models to calculate global reserves and Opec countries of drastically revising upwards their reserves in the 1980s.


The Guardian story quotes some really big oil industry players in this interesting story about the "accuracy" of reserve predictions. AS the oil companies have reduced their estimates across the board this year, it is interesting how this affects longer-term predictions.

GoldiloxWeek-end push#1315734/22/05; 11:25:42

The ESF is pumping the DX in a last ditch effort ot save the weekly numbers. Oil is stubbornly pushing above $55, and the DOW giving back some its uncanny 200 point bounce of Thursday.

Do economic waterfalls count as global climate change?

TownCrierA helpful quote from Bloomberg...#1315744/22/05; 11:37:08

-------Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest exporter of oil last year, and the rest of OPEC can do little to lower record crude oil prices as banks and speculators pile into "overheated futures markets," Saudi Arabia's oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, said yesterday at a conference in Paris.-------

This quote lends itself to a deeper understanding of the parallel gold market if you are willing to dwell on it for awhile.

Just picking at the surface...

Whereas futures markets for currencies may seem a natural game, you may wonder what legitimate business a bank would have playing in the futures markets for OIL. And if you can find them in oil, it is a very very small step away to find them in gold, too.

However, they would not likely be playing the gold futures on the long side as if they were looking for a bullish profit. Rather, they would be found playing the short side as a means of price-containment serving as a necessary chapter in the well-being of their overall book of financial operations.

Only little additional thought will reveal the opportunity this currently presents and the prudence in taking advantage of physical delivery while available at the banks' suppressive derivative-based "hypothetical" prices. The day is coming where this "power of illusion" with regard to pricing will be taken away from them at which time the physical market will count for everything.

On that day you will either have it, or you won't. Call USAGOLD-Centennial today and make sure you're among the people who have it.



GoldiloxUAL terminates pension obligations#1315754/22/05; 12:21:49

CNBC just announced that UAL has reached and agreement to terminate its union pension obligations in bankruptcy negotiations. No internet references yet.


GoldiloxDX support#1315764/22/05; 12:59:58

The ESF rally held up right to the COMiX close, but late hours are exhibiting DX doldrums, DOW dumping, and some generally nasty trends into the Friday close.

The upcoming final hour should be very interesting.

CNBC is already saying that SM bulls would consider a flat close a victory after yesterday, but it remains to see if traders can "make it so", as the DOW is nearing another 100 point haircut and crude remains stubbornly above $55/bbl.

GoldiloxDOW plummeting in last hour#1315774/22/05; 13:43:28

Will they close 8 minutes early again this week? The last half hour has doubled the day's losses, but it's showing some rebound in the final minutes.

I can't wait for the Financial Sense Newshour tomorrow.

TownCrierNasdaq Down 2 Pct, N. Korea Report Blamed#1315784/22/05; 13:58:33

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks extended their slide on Friday, after the Wall Street Journal reported on its Web site that the United States has warned China "quietly that North Korea could be preparing for a nuclear weapons test."

^----(from url)----^


Survivor@ Goldilox #1315794/22/05; 14:00:48

(4/22/05; 13:43:28MT - msg#: 131577)
Will they close 8 minutes early again this week?

Survivor: Nope. They musta used those 8 minutes to upen up the pipeline to the Carribian money pump.

Black BladeSaudi Oil Minister: OPEC Ability to Curb Prices Now Limited #1315804/22/05; 14:38:31


Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali Naimi said "Despite our best efforts, Saudi Arabia and OPEC have had little ability to curb the rapid rise in prices". Prices are more than 65% higher than at the start of 2004 and there are rising concerns that they are now a drag on economies worldwide.

In his speech, Naimi said the burgeoning influence on world oil prices from a new breed of investors had weakened the muscle of OPEC. "The pension funds buy and hold positions, which creates a long market," he said, citing some $12 billion-worth of money that tracked oil within the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index last year.

"Even banks are jumping on the bandwagon," he said, adding: "Some analysts expect that oil could soon be traded as an exchange-traded fund, meaning that it could be offered almost like a stock." This would attract even more investors, he said.

In short: "There is a widespread feeling in the industry that this activity will continue to push the market higher despite OPEC and Saudi Arabia's strong efforts to stabilize prices."

Black Blade: Another ETF? First Gold and next oil. this is getting "interesting". Hmmm...

Black BladeThe Barbarous Relic Files#1315814/22/05; 15:15:15


Gold lures Mongolians from the land

Oyungerel crouches among the rocks and sand in the river bed, scouring for the means to send her children to college. Scooping a pile of mud into a green plastic pan, the 50-year-old woman begins to "wash" it with gentle caresses. After a few minutes, she tilts the tub and points contentedly to what looks like a smattering of glitter clinging to the side of the pan. "Gold," said Oyungerel, who, like many Mongolians, goes by one name. "This is how we get it."

Across Mongolia, an estimated 100,000 people like Oyungerel are turning away from traditional occupations such as animal herding and from low-paying government jobs to illegally scavenge the country's old gold mines for leftover nuggets and gold dust. Called "ninja" because the green plastic tubs they carry on their backs make them look like cartoon Ninja Turtles, they are part of a gold rush that is rocking Mongolia socially, economically and environmentally.

Seeing (mining) companies reap such profits has inspired independent prospectors like Oyungeral, who believe finding free gold in streams and under rocks is their only chance to pay the bills. "I was a physics teacher and my husband had a pension, but it wasn't enough," said Oyungerel, the memory of her old life seeming to make her visibly conscious of her dusty work clothes and rubber boots. "We needed money to put three kids through college." So she and her husband left their life in the capital, Ulan Bator, three years ago and began panning the dirty streams of this giant state-owned mine 100 miles west of the city. What they do is illegal, but it brings them about $20 a day, enough to keep two of their children in college. The children themselves pan for gold during their summer break, and with a third child about to finish high school, Oyungerel says she expects to mine for another five years.

Black Blade: A lotta work for a "barbarous Relic".

TownCrierBlack Blade, calling a spade a spade#1315824/22/05; 15:30:58

"A lotta work for a 'barbarous Relic'."

Unless I'm grossly mistaken, Keynes used the term "barbarous relic" in applicable reference to the monetary Gold Standard, not to gold metal itself.

A huge difference in meaning, and no mistake. The former is indeed a barbarous relic, whereas the latter is the enduring zenith of wealth.


Black BladeTownie#1315834/22/05; 15:45:33

Yes, I know but it is a play on the old keynes remark so I give these interesting, sometimes humorous, and sometimes amusing articles the toungue-in-cheek "Barbarous Relic" header.

- Black Blade

Black BladeInteresting Quote#1315844/22/05; 15:47:56

When Richard M. Nixon removed the United States from the Gold Standard he reportedly said:

"We are all Keynesians now"


- Black Blade

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1315854/22/05; 15:56:28">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Friday market excerpts

April 22 (from Reuters) -- Analysts said gold has been supported this week by investors seeking a safe haven for their money amid growing concerns about the threat of inflation to U.S. growth. Recently choppy equities markets and oil prices have contributed to those fears, they said.

COMEX June gold futures climbed $1.20 to $435.60, after trading from $433.50 to $437, which was just below Wednesday's one-month peak at $437.40.

Volume was on the light side in COMEX gold futures as many market players were heading back home on Friday after last night's annual International Gold Dinner in midtown Manhattan.

Dealers said the yellow metal looked fairly robust after recent dips to the downside were well supported by physical buying and interest among investment funds.

But, a tight trading range in the dollar -- the main driver for the market -- appeared to be capping gains. Gold and the dollar have had a 97-percent inverse correlation since 2000 as the metal is viewed as an alternative to the U.S. currency.

However, despite the uncertainty about the dollar's direction, gold's charts are signaling that it is more likely to have an upside breakout than a downside move, said John Kosar, president of Asbury Research.

Charts showed that gold's reversal higher in mid-April created a continuation pattern that Kosar viewed as a bullish indicator for the metal's price.

"A close above $445 would confirm a bullish breakout and target a move to at least $485," he said.

---(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market quotes)----

TownCrier968, this will probably make you smile...#1315864/22/05; 18:15:42

In msg#: 131539 you kindly asked for my thoughts on the use of gold in helping China transition away from the fixed yuan-dollar peg toward a floating currency regime as proposed by Sam Baker in the March 21, 2005 article appearing in The Standard -- China's business news.

In keeping with our "roundtable" efforts here to keep ourselves ahead of the curve, the thoughts you're looking for from me were already posted October 13th, 2004. You can access it easily by clicking the hyperlink above to take you to that day in our archives, then scroll down to the following post:

TownCrier (10/13/04; 10:56:00MT - msg#: 125469)
Rising gold similar to Monopoly's Get Out of "Jail" (i.e., a jam) Free card

Somewhat presciently I concluded that post with the boastful remarks, "Within months you'll likely hear this particular angle bandied about again elsewhere. Remember, you saw it here first... at USAGOLD!"

And sure enough that corner of the stage is coming under the spotlight.

In that post I was addressing the same problematic issues of hot money and inflation, but I think I took this line of thought for a gold-related solution perhaps a step beyond that which Sam Baker has put forth in his latest recommendation insofar as he doesn't hint about the eventual fate of the interim yuan-gold peg whereas I have done so. My implication is for the employment not of a fixed peg but rather for a "crawling peg" which is paced by the rising value of gold.

I provided additional context which you may review at the original post, but for your convenience I'll reprint the crux of my policy recommendation here:
TownCrier (10/13/04; msg#: 125469)

....The opportunity to get out of this jam "free" is to initially ignore the IMF-dogma of purely market-driven floating of the domestic currency. Instead, the CB should maintain a degree of its exchange-rate management (the so-called "dirty float") -- AND HERE'S THE KEY -- they should moderate the speed of their domestic currency's transition in such a way that its appreciation is always less than (never greater than) the pace of the rising value of gold.

That will accomplish two things.

1) the allowance of domestic currency appreciation will help curb the inflationary fuel coming directly from the CB's own exchange rate policy.

2) the disruptive pressures and inflationary fuel of hot money will more naturally be diverted into the direction of NON-NATIONAL (neutral) gold -- owing to the CB's carefully measured pace of its own currency appreciation, the the gold avenue will thus always be seen by the hot-money-speculators as the greater opportunity for faster-paced gains.
And as more hot money speeds the appreciation of gold, the CB will in turn have greater latitude (if necessary) to hasten appreciation of their own currency versus the crumbling dollar -- eventually arriving at the admirable end goal of a more freely floating currency. [Floating against both the dollar and against gold.]

Is that somewhat along the lines of the thoughts you were looking for?


Black BladeGold Argentinos Sold Out#1315874/22/05; 18:26:01

At least I got to fill out another part of my South American Gold collection. Thanks guys!

- Black Blade

Gandalf the WhiteTA TAA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA#1315884/22/05; 19:00:15

We have WINNERS in the POG Contest !
Sorry for the delay, but the HOT weather brought out the BALROGS which kept me very busy today.
NOW -- down to business ---
Gold Jun '05 COMEX Contract (GCM5)
Open = $434.4 HIGH = $437.0 low = $433.5
SETTLEMENT = $435.6 Change = $1.2
Looking at the ENTRIES, we see:
$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ Rustee (4/13/05; 09:58:16MT - msg#: 131144)
$$$$ $435.7 $$$$ Tevye (04/20/05; 22:02:28MT - msg#: 131482)
$$$$ $435.5 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (4/20/05; 15:54:44MT - msg#: 131427)
$$$$ $435.4 $$$$ Rocky (4/20/05; 11:41:00MT - msg#: 131407)

TWO GOLD WINNERS as there was a tie !!
BOTH Sir Tevye and Sir Lothar of the Hill People are the Grand Prize WINNERS !

while Sirs Rocky and Rustee are RUNNERS-UP and winners of the Silver Eagle prizes.
Would each of the FOUR WINNERS please advise Lady Marie of the USAGOLD castle via email at ( This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ) of your "Forum Handles", REAL names and SNAILMAIL addresses so that the PRECIOUS may be posted.
I wish to thank one and ALL for their participation in the Contest and the GREAT THINKING and posting of the answers to the QUESTION !!

Sundeck$$$$Congratulations to winners$$$$#1315894/22/05; 22:01:12

Dang! $4.40 off the money...that's an error of only 1%...I wish I could guess that accurately in some of my other investments!!! I bet gold goes over $440 on Monday...just to rankle me...

Oh well...congratulations to the winners.


YGMCongrats to you guys with the right #'s.#1315904/22/05; 22:29:20

Thought I had a chance when it hit $437.00, getcha next time!

Many thanks to MK & crew for their years of generosity w/ these contests. The Castle is unique in many ways. Thanks also to you Gandalf for all your years of posts and contest PR work.....YGM

YGMIf You've Never Been to the "Castle" of the Round Table#1315914/22/05; 22:43:43

Here's a Hobbit painting of the hideout. No cameras allowed as it might give away the location, and Gandy & the Hobbits would then have to pull guard duty & keep the cauldrons of Oil fired to repel the Greenies.
GoldiloxGold and Oil - chapter 7 of the Gold Drivers Report#1315924/22/05; 23:20:04


The Gold/Oil ratio

The Gold/Oil ratio says Gold is a screaming Buy.

Over the last 30 years Gold has been trading at an average of 16-17 barrels of Oil per ounce of Gold. At the moment Gold is dirt cheap compared to Oil and trades for about 9 barrels of Oil for an ounce of Gold. Such extremes won't last for a long period of time so what gives, lower Oil prices down the road or Gold catching up ?

According to Matthew Simmons we shouldn't count on cheap Oil anymore coming decades. Let's repeat once more what he said when asked if there is a solution to the impending energy crisis he said :

"I don't think there is one. The solution is to pray. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it's a certainty." END.

So with these kind of statements in mind, would you bet on lower Oil prices or higher Gold prices ? (see chart below)

TopazBond/Oil#1315934/23/05; 00:25:43

Yes, congrats to the Winners...mighty fine Spottin, or in this case Junin!
The Oil is getting a bit "irrational" again as the Sept-Oct months suck up the front month/Spot.
Suppose it may be related to the curve with 3mo money now by far the largest %spread over cash - which in turn has been wilting lately.
Don't see anything short-term to stop Bond Yields plumbing new depths though so it'll be worth watching B/O next week for sure.

YGMGoldi#1315944/23/05; 02:25:03

yes prayer is good for the spirit and the soul. Reality is
hard money. We can live on love but we need money to create enterprise.. Those who survive the migration of wealth set the stage for new enterprise. Gold as one persons reality is anothers doubt....YGM

SundeckYGM's Castle of the Round Table#1315954/23/05; 02:48:52

Wowsers YGM...I never knew. I've been through Denver a few times and never noticed this place before. (Perhaps it's often shrouded in the Matterhorn.) Are they the Rockies in the background? Is that the path to the main entrance? I looked closely, but couldn't make out a sign above the door.

Idyllic setting, but "Oh my! Who does the cleaning?"


masHow did they do this?#1315964/23/05; 03:15:11

Does any know how this is done? Just curious.

Romanian currency loses zeros to make calculations easier
Romania's central bank has unveiled the country's new currency with a publicity campaign to explain how it is being re-denominated. The new Romanian notes and coins will have four fewer zeros. So a cup of coffee that currently costs 50,000 lei will, from the start of July, cost five lei.

One euro is worth 36,000 lei, that will change to 3.6. The re-denomination - which is not a devaluation - will make it easier for calculating transactions in the country, where GDP per capital is 5,384 euros a year and more than two out of every five people live below the poverty line.

The currency change is part of the liberalisation of Romania's economy as the former communist country seeks membership of the European Union. Shops are displaying prices in the old and new denominations and the old notes will be withdrawn from circulation at the end of next year

YGMAhhhha!...Sundeck!#1315974/23/05; 03:16:42

No matter where you go, there you are!

Pretend all you want we know you've breached the Castle Walls in the state of dreams. So have we all. Too bad, so sad we all have to achieve a state of sleeping reality to meet Gandalph, the Hobbits, Smeagol, and the rest of the Castle spirits. The reality of dreams is more real than the life lived....Yukon Gold Miner w/ Sambuca & Corona @ hand.
SundeckU.S. Current Account Deficit - Why hammer away at China?#1315984/23/05; 04:45:26


* TC Post #131506 - U.S. Current Account Deficit: Causes and Consequences

* Sundeck #131237 - US Trade Deficit - China is not the only "culprit"

TC has drawn attention to the speech to the Economics Club at the University of North Carolina on 20 Apr 05 by Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson. Ferguson made the following statements (see link):

"A large part of the reason that people disagree about what will be needed to bring about current account adjustment is that they disagree about what has led the deficit to become so large in the first place."


"...any compelling explanation of the current account deficit must identify not merely the proximate influences on the deficit--be they exchange rates, capital flows, or aggregate saving and investment--but also the fundamental, underlying sources of the imbalance."

He then identifies five factors that he believes may be fundamentally involved:

1. Expansion of the fiscal deficit
2. Decline in the private saving rate
3. Productivity growth
4. Slump in foreign domestic demand
5. Improvements in global financial intermediation

He illustrates the potential effect of each of these (Figures 1-5), as well as their cumulative effect (Figure 6) on the current account imbalance; drawing upon finacial modelling done by colleagues at the FED using the "Federal Reserve Board staff's macroeconomic model".

Ferguson also emphasises the rising oil import bill.

He does not, however, discuss imbalances that may have arisen (recycling "treadmill effect") from the prolonged role of the US-dollar as the international reserve currency and the numeraire for many international transactions.


Irrespective of whether one has any faith in the results of the modelling (I personally have very little faith), it seems to me that there remains a lot of uncertainty in the fundamental causes for the present imbalance.

Given so much ucertainty in the causes, why has there recently appeared so much certainty in a remedy? That is: China should float its currency and do so soon!

As I pointed out in my post #131237, floating the Yuan is not likely to cure the imbalances with Canada, Germany, Mexico and other trading partners. Neither is it likely (so far as I can see) to address some of the "fundamental" factors discussed by Vice Chairman Ferguson.

Do I sense desperation in high places?

As a side issue...I wonder just how important it would be if China is confronted with reduced exports to the US, either by a currency revaluation, by US-introduced tariffs or by other means? I recall reading somewhere that exports to the US represent only about 3% of China's that right? Could China take up the slack domestically?



GoldiloxChina vs. local remedies#1315994/23/05; 08:54:01

@ Sundeck,

IMHO, the reason that the "fix" is so focused on China is that TPTB would prefer to continue their bankster scam as long as possible and leave any real fixing to later generations.

Asking China to rebalance the trade deficit, or so they suppose, allows the victims of massive reflation to remain defocused on their local causes.

Asset deflationmay be the only real local remedy, as the bad assets should be weeded to allow the better ones to grow more healthily. There is fear that actions allowing the bad assets to fail may snowball and it may be too difficult to prevent overshoot - leaving the controllers too vulnerable to the "fix".

Again, not unlike the 1930's where Roosevelt's gang of banksters allowed the depression to stretch 10 years to "save' the banks but left the people in soup lines.

Bush came right out and said the "Consumer Protection Bill" was meant to "protect bank solvency".

ToolieSundeck#1316004/23/05; 09:49:30


When you say: Do I sense desperation in high places? – Yes, but I don't believe it's the kind that you suggest.

I think that most of the "concern" expressed about the current account deficit recently has more to do with placating a congress that is less than enthusiastic about passing CAFTA (Central American Free Trade). FTAA (North and South America) is dead. CAFTA doesn't have the votes to pass today, if it manages to become law, I suspect that we'll see the heat come off of China.

Sundeck-- what a nice thought, we are expecting 12" of the white stuff today.

KiranaTest#1316014/23/05; 09:55:52

My first post.
Just checking to see if I have it right.

Chally(mas).......That's the easy part...... (knocking off a few zero's)#1316024/23/05; 10:08:44

I don't know jack abot Romanian currency, but paper is paper,
and like ALL other paper 'money', the pain lay not in knocking
off the 0000's ...because the devaluation has already happened.

Unless I miss my guess, you'll find some Romanians who remember when when that cup of coffee used to cost 500 or maybe even 50 lei. What kind of shock do you think it would cause a Romanian 'Rip Van Winkle' who laid down for a nap with 500 lei in his pocket and woke up 30 years later to find that he now needed 100 times that amount just to get that morning eye-opener. It's his 'savings' that have been rendered almost valueless by the insidious inflation that 'added' all those extra 0000's in the first place.

No different here. $10 tucked under your mattress in 1970 bought 40 gallons of gas. Today 40 gallons is $100. Devalue
the lcoal $ by 90% and add a zero to the cost of anything.
Easy as pie.

KiranaCan you post articles here? #1316034/23/05; 11:31:41

When it comes to dropping zeros the Romanians haven't near the problems of neigbouring Hungary in 1946.

Now this is hyper inflation.

100 Million B-Pengo, 1946
(100,000,000,000,000,000,000 Pengo)

YGMAsia to change the Oil Landscape#1316044/23/05; 12:40:51

Asian nations to set up energy co-op scheme
By Xie Ye (China Daily)
Updated: 2005-04-22 22:31

As record oil price risesthreaten economies around the world, Asian countries are exploring the possibility of establishing a regional co-operation framework that may change the landscape of the global energy market.

The framework, both at the governmental-level and company-level, will include an integrated regional oil market and an emergency mechanism for sharing strategic oil stockpiles among the countries.

Under the scheme, Asian countries will also wrap up long-term oil supply deals, cross-border oil and gas pipeline projects, and joint investment in oil and gas exploration, production, refining and marketing and promote clean and renewable energy.

Though it may take a decade for the ambitious scheme to be put into effect, many Asian countries, including Saudi Arabia, China, Japan and India, believe the project could help stabilize energy supply and security in the region.

Energy co-operation may also bring in neighbouring resource-rich areas, such as Australia and Russia.

Australia is already a major supplier of liquefied natural gas and coal to East Asia, while Russia holds one of the world's largest oil and gas fields in its Far East region.

Experts even suggest energy co-operation could be a foundation from which the region could form a European-Union-style integrated community using the basic framework to promote market efficiency and accelerate liberalization across the region.

"The political and economic systems vary a lot among Asian countries. But energy co-operation can be a breakthrough to integrate the countries together, economically and politically," says Zhao Hongtu, deputy director of World Economy Research Centre with the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.

Signs show such co-operation has been gathering steam in the past few months.

Earlier in January, the first roundtable talks by Asian and Middle East ministers discussing regional oil and gas co-operation were held in New Delhi, India. It was the first time the oil ministers of Asia's four largest consumers - China, Japan, South Korea and India - had got together with eight Middle East oil producers to discuss Asian energy co-operation.

On the commercial level, 12 major oil companies from China, Japan and South Korea are expected to gather together in Seoul this September. They are to discuss the possibility of setting up an oil exchange centre in Northeast Asia, share oil storage tanks, and co-operate on crude imports.

The meetings are being held against abackdrop regional co-operation , including the potential energy partnership between the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China, Japan and South Korea.

"The desire for energy co-operation has become increasingly strong," says Zhao.

Such co-operation is especially important for oil consumers such as China, Japan, South Korea and India.

The countries are among the world's largest oil importers.

China relies on foreign suppliers for 40 per cent of its oil, while Japan and South Korea import almost all theirs from abroad, most coming from the Middle East.

The biggest common challenges the countries share are in securing adequate energy, safeguarding transportation, diversifying importing resources and energy sources, and fending off price fluctuations.

Even though the countries have to compete worldwide to secure reserves, experts say co-operation is needed.

Co-operation, such as setting up an emergency network to share oil stockpiles, will help the countries guard against disruption to supplies.

"As Asia is expected to account for 45 per cent of the worlds oil demand by 2020, developing emergency response capacity will be critical," says a report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency.Consumer countries also hope the co-operation will improve their bargaining power on the price of crude imports.

Asian oil consumers have long been plagued with price discrimination over oil imports from the Middle East, known as the "Asian Premium". Due to the heavy reliance on the Middle East, and insufficient information, Asian countries have to pay US$1-US$1.5 a barrel higher for imports than their North American and Western European counterparts.

At the moment, the Asian Premium costs Asian countries more than US$10 billion a year.

"Collective Asian demand should have market power vis-a-vis suppliers," said Yasuo Tanabe, director of international affairs division in Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, at a Northeast Asia energy co-operation seminar in March.

Zhao of the World Economy Research Centre says Asian countries can also address environmental pollution by promoting cleaner energy resources such as natural gas, hydropower and nuclear power.

Still, daunting challenges are ahead for the potential co-operation framework.

For one thing, heterogeneous political and economic systems and market behavior set the countries apart.

Meanwhile, energy markets in many countries around the region are relatively immature with strict import barriers.

Cross-subsidies on energy prices and entangled tax systems could also deter creation of a competitive energy market, says Doh Hyun-jae, Research Fellow at the Korea Energy Economics Institute.

Then the old story of trust. It is still a big question whether countries are willing to bank their energy security on a regional framework.

Zhao calls for continuous multi-lateral dialogue and government-level talks to clear out political risk, and enhance mutual understanding.

Dollar Bill.,.#1316054/23/05; 13:24:06

Kirana, Maybe Tom Chao will collect paper gold notes. Invite him to learn at the forum. studying here will expand his knowledge of the fiat he collects:}
Belgian@ TC >>> China and gold ! (Sam Baker)#1316064/23/05; 13:24:27

Sam's - *suggestion* - to peg the yuan to the $-goldprice + the bullion-picture that illustrated the article, is in fact a nice message.
You intuitively and correctly added - * INTERIM * - yuan-gold peg !!! Indeed Sir, w're still in the "transition" period, aren't we.
Sam's suggestion is indeed one step forward expressed in your >>> transition from "fixed" peg to "crawling" peg.

The whole hullabaloo of blaiming China's currency is simply to divert growing negative attention outside the US' (and others') borders. China will continue to do what it wants and when it wants !

Sam was simply looking for a "convenient" solution as the oil-owners have been/are building "their" convenient "story". I do like both the oil AND the China stories. Not only 986 should smile, but we all should.

We are indeed heading towards general floating that will increasingly become free-er. Out of nescessity of course !!! "Peg-time", doesn't work that well anymore ! For the "general" interest, that is.

Note that Sam wasn't talking (suggesting) about a gold-standard or currency backed by gold. His thoughts were much closer to the idea of (free) floating, rather than pegging(the yuan) to fixed (gold-$)prices. He was suggesting a "suitable" interim (smart but ineffective) -sand in the eyes- solution to bridge the time towards free floating.
Sam does certainly "value" gold as his illustration strongly suggests.

Rumors (!!!) even suggest that Saudi Arabia no longer finds it nescessary to agree on oil-output quota and price-ranges !? "FLOAT" it... !

Oil and gold have been maneuvered (still are) towards that general floating goal !!! Fixing and pegging had its time.
Who's afraid from (any degree of) floating and who (desperately) needs the old fixing and pegging !? This is the hart of the matter that is going to determine the planet's future.

But we do repeat ourselves, aren't we Sir Randy. Hope that (smiling) 968 keeps on posting. He has many recent treasures (ECB/BIS-statements) in his files, that strongly suggest that w're on the road, indeed. Have a nice weekend.

Elwoodtest#1316074/23/05; 13:33:04

mikalHastened "preparations" towards currency shift#1316084/23/05; 14:00:43

China May Speed Up Move To Flexible Yuan,
Central Banker Says - Bloomberg - April 23, 2005

Belgian@ YGM#1316094/23/05; 14:11:27

Strange, that Asia isn't mentioning - "peak oil" -...isn't it !!!-???

They also seem to bother very little about $-expensive oil. Is oil expensive today !? A: Today, oil is still very cheap...but already too expensive for the Western economies and monetary situation.

They (Asians) seem to prefer "STABLE" oil...price AND flow ! A matter of (new-renewed) reliability. What happened to the "old" oil-reliability, organized by the Far-West ?
Is the (former) planetary oil-business being "re-organized" !?

Investigate how Japan is disfavored (isolated) by the major oil/gas-reserve-owners. Koizumi offered excuses to China (war-atrocities) ! Oil always was and will remain a "SUPPLY" (sellers')market, whatever the consumption might become. Soon, oil will not need the former OPEC-cartel anymore. Oil will sell and flow à la carte. Oil is gaining in "exchange-value", wich is not entirely price-related. Value should be bartered for equal value ! Cheap oil-floods are a thing of the past. Call "this" peak-oil if you wish.

It are the oil-matters that cause the regroupement in the (former) fixed global alliances. Oil is going entirely global and the military aspect connected to oil/gas is decreasing in importance (relevance). The whole interconnected planet is now becoming vulnarable to oil-supplies. The rapid growing Asian economic forces made us that more vulnarable on more aspects than oil alone. Oil (its exchange value) always had a strong impact on monetary affairs. Today, the oil-matters are changing the monetary affairs (dollar-peaking).

mikalAsian Forum considers "single unified" region & currency#1316104/23/05; 14:29:29

Hong Kong's Tsang says case for single Asian currency "overwhelming" - April 23, 2005
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Peace of mind, 24/seven#1316114/23/05; 14:31:59">gold -- a global calling card
BelgianFlexible yuan !?#1316124/23/05; 14:37:07

WHAT IS A FLEXIBLE YUAN GOING TO *** CHANGE ***, TODAY ??? Change, for Asia and the West.
Funny that nobody pays one nanosecond of attention to the consequences (purposes) of a quasi floating yuan ! Do we wish (demand) China unpeg (flexibilize) its currency for China's own good !?
When the yuan exchange rate rises against the dollar ...what will happen to the yen-dollar exchange rate !? Who or what is going to benefit ? Why should China give in substantionally and distribute some presents to competitors !? Is there a Troyan horse...a poison pill ?
I think that this whole yuan-thing is an attention diversion and a pure show. Thoughts anyone ?

YGMBelgian...further on Yuan.#1316134/23/05; 15:26:27


Moreover, there is the US. According to Chinese scholars, over 50% of America's daily consumer goods come from China. An appreciation of the yuan by 5-10% would push up prices by about 1%. Again, the dollar would go further down and the euro further up. One isn't sure if that would save any jobs in the US, but hot money rushing in and out of China could well disrupt the Chinese economy, and by extension global finances. China is not sure if it - or anybody else for that matter - would gain anything from this, apart from some currency punters. But it certainly would be in the interest of everybody, including China, to broaden the currency band by some 5% and slowly create a basket of currency to peg the yuan, a basket that also includes the yen and the euro. Anything short of this would undermine the stability of the yuan and threaten the world economy.

Husky@Belgian#1316144/23/05; 16:43:37

Floating the Yuan will turn it into a reserve currency. That, in turn, will enable China to print money to 'buy' all the commodities it wants. Like, well, oil for example.
Sheesh. You have to wonder just whose side those folks in Washington really are on these days.

The Invisible HandIs Y2K here again?#1316154/23/05; 17:44:52

On May 29, 2005, there's a referendum in France about the EU-constitution.

AMSTERDAM, April 22 (Reuters) - A rejection of the EU constitution could bring economic chaos

How did you know what's been killing me? Slowly for years, driving me to hate people when I don't want to hate. ... Have you felt it, too? Have you seen how your best friends love everything about you – except the things that count? And your most important is nothing to them, nothing, not even a sound they can recognize. You mean, you want to hear? You want to know what I do and why I do it, you want to know (Ayn Rand, "The Fountainhead", Macmillan hardcover, p. 339, Signet Books paperback, p.330)

Gandalf the WhiteWELCOME to BOTH Kirana and Elwood ! <;-)#1316164/23/05; 20:26:56

Keep on posting ! -- you have it down pat and is really was easy -- yes ?

Dollar Bill.,.#1316174/23/05; 21:27:24

Methinks China listened to Roach from Morgan Stanley when he told them not to change thier situation. He posted his comments that he told the Chinese, then it was pulled a day or two later and not a trace to track down of those comments. I went back the next day to bring the gist to the forum, but it was gone. Not that they needed Roach, but his comments were well thought out, and I didnt put them to memory. If thier long term strategy is to rule the world, they have many hurdles to cross first. Ruleing the world may be just one possible result that could occur in thier future, and they probably act to keep that possibility at least viable as a dream. Certainly other futures are possible to them, and at this point just handleing thier difficulties sanely would be first and foremost. To make a quick rash decision before its time is not what they want to do. They are feeding off a financial system not of thier design, and they have many chess moves to gain power ahead of them. Upending thier largest customer is not genius idea number one at this time!
Some members of China's tyranny have a conquest notion in thier heads. Hence thier purchase of Panama Canal duties.
Taiwan is needed to strengthen thier financial power, and that comes before any dreams of reserve status. At this point, they are trapped. They can only play the game and hope competition and fate will deal them enough of the right cards, and enough of the wrong cards to thier competitors, for them to someday have the strongest hand they could.
In reviewing the history of Microsoft, a case can be made that microsoft made plenty of errors, but its many competitors, includeing ibm, just made more errors.

ElwoodHello, Gandalf#1316184/24/05; 00:30:05

Thanks for the 'welcome', however, I'm an old hand from a ways back. Just checking to see if the code still worked. I see Spot and Spike are feeling frisky again.

Hello, MK. I see the french vote on the EU constitution coming soon. Have you read it, by the way? Seems to be a bit lengthy to me and not very freedom-friendly.


SundeckChina - Percentage of GDP associated with exports to the USA#1316194/24/05; 04:58:29

According to Stephen Roach (see link) China's total exports accounted for about 35% of it's GDP in 2004; about one third of which were to the US. Therefore, exports to the US represent about 12% of China's GDP.

It is hard to see that China would be affected much by a modest loss of exports to the US. Say that a revaluation of the Yuan, or the punitive imposition of tariffs by the US reduced Chinese exports to the US by one quarter...a fairly hefty slug! This would amount to 3% of China's 2004 GDP. However, given that China is growing its GDP around 10% per annum, it is hard to see that their economy would suffer much overall.

I'm inclined to agree (Toolie, Goldilox, Belgian) that the current round of "China-bashing", as Roach calls it, is just a diversion of some sort - probably serving domestic interests in the US amongst some constituencies.
Politicians always try to worm their way out of accepting responsibility for economic misfortune...and blaming someone else is the time-honoured solution.

The Roach article in the Financial Times is worth a read.


masBelgian, your point on 131612? - From the Privateer.#1316204/24/05; 05:09:54

Ref. 131612. How long can they keep this game going, something will give soon.

Yes it's just a diversion. They have no ammunition left. What else can they do to divert attention from the problems at home? Bash the Yuan, is all thats left.

For your info.,
"All political establishments, whenever and wherever situated, have one overriding vested interest. That is the maintenance of their power. Ultimately, the biggest threat to that power is always internal and comes from the people in the nation over which they preside. The time honoured way to damp down any public dissent is to distract the public, and the most oft used means to accomplish this is war. The invasion of Iraq is a perfect illustration of this. But Iraq no longer provides a sufficient distraction. The invasion of Iraq has been "successful", as has the professed object of that war, to make Iraq a "democracy".

The US political establishment knows that the financial condition of their nation is deteriorating with ever increasing speed. They know that they need another distraction, but they also know that Iraq has stretched them very thin and that another war is a huge risk. There have been belligerant noises about both Syria and Iran for many months now, but nothing concrete has happened. Meanwhile, US prices of all descriptions inexorably rise and the economic lot of the "average" American inexorably worsens.

So, if the US political establishment cannot have a war as a distraction, they need a SCAPEGOAT. To deflect the blame for the steady deterioration of the US economy, they must have an outside agency to blame. If they don't, they risk the blame falling on themselves.

It has become increasingly obvious over the period since the end of January, and especially over the period since the non-event which was the recent G7-IMF-World Bank meetings in Washington, that the scapegoat being set up is CHINA.

At the beginning of February, a bill surfaced in the US Senate which threatened to slap 27.5% tariffs on ALL Chinese exports to the US if they did not take steps to float their currency in 180 days. At the time, this bill was downplayed by both the Bush Administration and the Treasury, who said that they preferred to employ "financial diplomacy". The bill went into "committee", and promptly vanished from the news. It has resurfaced this month, to be passed by a 67-33 majority in the Senate.

Mr Bush himself, who has been circumspect on this issue, has waded in over the past week. First, "Administration Officials" were out in public demanding the "immediate" floating of the Yuan. Then Mr Bush himself was doing it. Then he was claiming to be seeing (undefined) "signs" that the Chinese were indeed moving to float their currency. Mr Rob Portman, nominated by Mr Bush to be his top trade negotiator, has promised a "top to bottom review" of the trade complaints against China if he is confirmed in his post. And it doesn't stop even there. On April 21, Californian Republican Duncan Hunter, Chairman of the Congressional committee overseeing the US armed services, claimed that China was using its huge reserves of US Dollars to buy sophisticated weapons which could destroy US aircraft carriers!

This is a ratcheting up of US political rhetoric which is much faster and more overblown than was the similar sequence which led up to the Iraqi invasion. The US political establishment is running scared in front of what they see as a rapidly escalating financial debacle. They NEED a distraction. Another war is too risky. They need a scapegoat. Clearly, China is it.

If the Chinese are REALLY crafty, they will comply - to an extent - with the demands out of the US to "float" their currency. They will probably not float it entirely, but merely establish a range in which their currency can trade. Of course, the initial reaction by the Bush Administration would be predictable. WE WON - AGAIN!! The reaction on financial markets would be equally predictable. There would be huge rally, the mother of all bear traps."

968The EU economic recovery - why is it so slow?#1316214/24/05; 08:16:10

Speech by Dr Philipp M Hildebrand, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the Brussels Economic Forum, Charlemagne, 21-22 April 2005.

"The asymmetric nature of the global growth dynamic during the last decade is a worrying development for the European Union. Together with Japan, Europe has failed to make a growth contribution commensurate with its share of the world economy. The U.S. economy has had to step in and assume the role of what some have referred to as a "global consumer of last resort". One of the consequences of this dynamic is a potentially vulnerable world economy beset with historically unprecedented economic imbalances. How these imbalances will adjust over time is a complex question that goes beyond the topic of today's panel. Suffice it to say, Europe will not be an island of prosperity in the hopefully unlikely event of a financial market crisis triggered by these imbalances."

"GDP growth differences EU – U.S. : As you can see in Graph 1, real GDP growth in the U.S. has consistently outperformed growth in the European Union since the early 1990s. Between 1995 and 2003, real annual GDP growth in the U.S. has averaged 3.3% compared to 2.2% in the EU-13. This sustained growth gap suggests that there is a structural dimension to the seemingly cyclical question of why the EU recovery is so weak. Measurement discrepancies account for some of the gap between official growth statistics in Europe and the United States. These discrepancies emanate from different sources of data, from differences in the scope of measurement and from different ways in which prices and hence price deflators are measured. Price measurement differences exist in the quality adjustment of prices (hedonic pricing) and in the pricing of services in trade and finance as well as in non-market sectors like education and health. In addition, the measurement scope itself can vary. An example is the treatment of military expenses which are categorized as investments in the U.S. and as current expenses in the EU. Finally, data source issues are particularly relevant in the technology sector. In the EU, software investments are derived from typically conservative corporate accounts. In the U.S., software investments are estimated directly from software expenses. These measurement issues are well known amongst economists on both sides of the Atlantic. Nonetheless, I am struck by how little attention they receive in comparative economic discussions. With increasing focus on data measurement synchronization, measurement differences are fortunately on the decline in cross-country comparisons of national income accounts. Nonetheless, such measurement issues currently explain between 0.5 and at most 1 percentage point of the growth differential between the EU and the United States."

"In an effort to augment the EU's growth potential, the focus must therefore be on breaking down labour market rigidities for additional labour input on the one hand and on accompanying policy measures to increase productivity on the other hand. Despite the subdued nature of the current growth outlook which is adversely affected by a strong Euro and rising oil prices, there are some promising signs that structural change is under way. Both the gradual dismantling of the 35 hour week in France and the shift to part-time and temporary employment in Germany are boosting labour input."

"Germany, for example, has steadily increased its competitiveness and is the only G7 country with a growing global export share over the last 5 years."
Interesting speech by P. Hildebrand on the European economic situation (and the difference in economic data interpretation).

@ Towncrier msg#: 131586 : Thanks. This was what I was looking for !

Gandalf the WhiteTks Sir Elwood !#1316224/24/05; 08:56:48

Elwood (4/24/05; 00:30:05MT - msg#: 131618)
Hello, Gandalf
Welcome BACK !
PS: my memory is not as it was years ago.

ge968 msg#: 131621#1316234/24/05; 09:46:07

I have tried to decode the message you have quoted and arrived at the following solution.

1/ breaking down labour market rigidities for additional labour input = outsourcing

2/ increase productivity = decrease real wages

Is that the correct translation?

From a recent thread at the Capitol Stool (See link):

"The inflation of the 70's was commodity driven but it was wage inflation which was the killer. That was an ever rising cost which corporations and elites could not abide…."

"Looking back now I think somewhere one could find some very smart people who forsaw China and 'free trade' would be the nail in the coffin of wage inflation. And so it has become. No matter how much stated inflation rises going forward it will never duplicate the 70's experience because wage inflation will not add fuel."

BelgianThe yuan#1316244/24/05; 10:11:33

I suspect that the AA financial ($) industry wants the chinese to open wide open all doors of their capital market, so a Soros-like, speculative attack, could be organized succesfully. That's why (smart) Sam suggested a yuan-$/goldprice-peg. Higher $-POG would mean a higher yuan/$ exchange rate (in theory). But the dollar-debt cannot afford a higher goldprice or risk to become completely non-credible !

Don't forget that there is a huge (global) $-currency-war raging out there ! Trade-power and currency exchange rates are linked !!!
A higher yuan exchange rate would affect chinese trade and competition with
poor countries with weak currencies. The chinese wouldn't like this !!!
The dollar sees China (growing superpower) as a threath...a formidable challenger !

SmeagolBretton Woods Deja Vu? WAGII at rissk now too?#1316254/24/05; 10:24:30

sss...does this ssound eerily familiar? It does sseem verrrry ssimilar to what is happening (or about to happen) now? The recent US-bubbles, China and other recent events appear to ssubstitute into the following quite nicely.

" The Breakdown of Bretton Woods

It came about this way. From the end of World War II to about 1965, U.S. domestic monetary and fiscal policies were conducted in such a way as to be noninflationary. As world trade expanded during this period, the relative importance of Germany and Japan grew, so that by the end of the 1960s it was unreasonable to expect any system of international finance to endure without a consensus at least among the United States, Germany, and Japan. But after 1965, U.S. economic policy began to conflict with policies desired by Germany and Japan. In particular, the United States began a strong expansion, and moderate inflation, as a result of the Vietnam War and the Great Society program.

When it became obvious that the DM and yen were undervalued with respect to the dollar, the United States urged these two nations to revalue their currencies upward. Germany and Japan argued that the United States should revise its economic policy to be consistent with those in Germany and Japan as well as with previous U.S. policy. They wanted the United States to curb money- supply growth, tighten credit, and cut government spending. In the ensuing stalemate, the U.S. policy essentially followed the recommendations of a task force chaired by Gottfried Haberler. This was a policy of officially doing nothing and was commonly referred to as a policy of "benign neglect." If Germany and Japan chose to intervene to maintain their chosen par values, so be it. They would be allowed to accumulate dollar reserves until such time as they decided to change the par values of their currencies. That was the only alternative if the United States would not willingly change its policy. It was clearly understood at the time that a unilateral action on the part of the United States to devalue the dollar by increasing the dollar price of gold would be matched by similar European devaluations.

In April 1971, the Bundesbank took in $3 billion through foreign exchange intervention. On May 4 it took in $1 billion in the course of the day. On May 5 the Bundesbank took in $1 billion during the first hour of trading, then suspended intervention in the foreign exchange market. The DM was allowed to float upward. On August 15 the U.S. president, Nixon, suspended the convertibility of the dollar into gold and announced a 10 percent tax on imports. The tax was temporary and was intended to signal the magnitude by which the United States thought the par values of the major European and Japanese currencies should be changed. "
and this snip from from
"Six months before the first upside breakout in the London gold market, George Champion, president of Chase, called a young Paul Volcker into his office to ask whether the then unfolding balance of payments problem might cause the U. S. to start losing gold. Volcker explained that the dollar was healthy and the gold market unimportant. "It was," Volcker said later, "one of the most embarrassing moments of my life."

It sure looks to us as if the ssame game is being played out again, only with a new set of players...but there is a lot less wiggle room now...sss... we thinks the old game of scapegoating won't work - the Inter-net fixes that... nearly everyone can ssee through the fraud now.


P.S. Our congratulations to the Contesst Winners!

GoldiloxCurrency Wars on many fronts#1316264/24/05; 10:48:27

For a while at this forum, we have focused on the US$-euro skirmish in the currency wars.

But history reminds us that many powerful strategists found defeat in the multi-front nature of their battles.

As suggested earlier in today's thread, the Yuan-$ tensions in the finsihed goods trade are every bit as critical as the $-euro battle in the oil market, especially as it affests the US$-Yen balance.

I wonder whether the oil market really desires euro, or just finds the message in Iraq compelling enough to supress further Islamic gold dinar talk.

Notice that since the December tsunami, what was left of Islamic Dinar messaging has completely disappeared from at least the western press.

Will the US $ successfully defend its hegemony on all fronts? It seems like a rather daunting task.

GoldiloxGM Industry Puts Human Gene into Rice#1316274/24/05; 11:12:04


Present GM crops are modified with genes from bacteria to make them tolerate herbicides, so that they are not harmed when fields are sprayed to kill weeds. But most of them are only able to deal with a single herbicide, which means that it has to be used over and over again, allowing weeds to build up resistance to it.

But the researchers at the National Institute of Agrobiological Sciences in Tsukuba, north of Tokyo, have found that adding the human touch gave the rice immunity to 13 different herbicides. This would mean that weeds could be kept down by constantly changing the chemicals used.

Supporting scientists say that the gene could also help to beat pollution.

Professor Richard Meilan of Purdue University in Indiana, who has worked with a similar gene from rabbits, says that plants modified with it could "clean up toxins" from contaminated land. They might even destroy them so effectively that crops grown on the polluted soil could be fit to eat.

But he and other scientists caution that if the gene were to escape to wild relatives of the rice it could create particularly vicious superweeds that were resistant to a wide range of herbicides.


Instead of slowing the toxification of the planet, these researchers want to re-engineer all species to resist toxification. I wonder how well they have thought this out really? Whodathunk a Frankenstein affect would be most likely in the botanical labs?

Large numbers of scientists have warned that genetic engineering of other species will render the natural species extinct by nature of gene-pool pollution (thus we now eat cardboard tomatoes engineered to survive combine harvesting).

Farmers are being sold genetically engineered crops and told that saving seeds is illegal, so the world farming industry is at the mercy of Monsanto, GM, et al. Even farmers whose crops are invaded by bees and winds carrying the proprietary genes are finding no mercy in the litigation. Once the "new" species" takes over a farmers land, he is stuck with the system, whether he originally bought in or not.

Perhaps they are engineering crops that can resist the expected pests and pollutants, but in doing so, are they leaving them vulnerable for the "unexpected"?

YGMRichard Russell Writing on China in Nov. /03#1316284/24/05; 11:13:12

First a few of my own basic views....YGM

Note who produces 60% of China's exports by producing 'IN' China. Also I am a believer in the Gold binding to the Renmimbi and the ensueing Currency wars. The Yuan will become a part of world reserve currencies in future. The fog of inter Asian disputes over straits oil and old war wounds between China and Japan is in MHO just that. 'Fog'. China knows they have helped keep all Asian currencies
strong by pegging the Yuan. China is no longer secular and is now rapidly achieving favored nation status as per the recent recognition by Australia. China is not only becoming the "Importer" of the 21st century, it is becoming the investment hub of the world. Japan is one of the key investors in China today. The new economic ties between Asia & her neighbours, the pipelines to
carry Russian Oil to China, the Energy and Mineral Resources to be exploited in China and around the world by China's massive dollar holdings and many other factors are the things to be watching. War may come one day over currencies or Oil but it is along way off IMHO. First will come massive inflation in the west & a commodities boom like the world has never seen before. We are well into that commodities bull right now, and it is just the beginning,
Russell excerpt

CHINA: China, India and Asia are changing the economy of the world. Let's check out some facts and statistics on China alone. In this year alone, China's exports are up 32 percent, now passing France's total exports. China's economic growth is somewhere between 8 and 11 percent.

China is becoming a big importer. And as prosperity hits China, imports are rising. This from today's Wall Street Journal - "China Saps Commodity Supplies. From steak to iron ore to cotton to diamonds, China's rising urban incomes, exports are reshaping the world's commodity markets. The country's emergence as a m