USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

Electronic reproduction sourced from
Topaz@ Gandalf...Comex FND.#1287312/1/05; 00:35:38

The Freight Train picks up momentum as 10K Contracts are "noticed" on FirstND.
The game has moved on ...(to April) so PoG drops $4.

Question Oh White Wiz:-
Is it not "usual" for the "current Month" OI/volume to fizzle out more toward the END of the Month?

968The Future of Gold As Money#1287322/1/05; 03:01:32

An Analysis of Antal Fekete's Plan for a Parallel Gold-Coin Standard. By Nelson Hultberg January 31, 2005
Worth a read.

CopperfieldShortcut to knowledge?#1287332/1/05; 05:56:40

Dear posters, lurkers,
Is it maybe possible to put together a short list of articles that really enhances our understanding of world economic affairs?

My favorite three:

Peter Wartburton: Debasement of World Currency

Robert Blumen: Debt and Delusion

William Engdahl: A New American Century?

It could speed up understanding for new (and long time) posters!

BoilermakerWar Against Gold#1287342/1/05; 08:39:38

I generally look at the war against gold by Western banking and political interests as a self-inflicted battle in a larger war between East and West. While the West is busily torpedoing all threats to its $ hegemony, the East is busily building its economies to a point that they will own all the hotels in a world Monopoly game. At the point where the bulk of productive wealth has been relocated from West to East, the $ will feel the chill of winter, and like frostbitten leaves will fall and blow worthless to the ground. Dust to dust, ashes to ashes, none will survive. In the meantime, the US rearranges the deck chairs while the ship sinks lower into a sea of debt.
The Euro zone sees the future and is preparing its lifeboat. The US has itself stuck in the futile battle of maintaining a currency on life support.

BoilermakerIn Defense of Controversy and Debate#1287352/1/05; 08:47:33

There seems to be some passionate controversy at the Forum as to how we goldbugs should behave. Ari, our puritanical wise man, preaches total abstinence from non-physical pleasures like a Baptist Preacher at an AA meeting. He shares his keen and sometimes abrasive views freely to our little audience and he often scolds those who in his opinion stray from the purist path or who profess heretical thoughts. Many other goldbugs here at the Forum have a more liberal outlook and like to enjoy a bit of non-physical spice. Many others of us feel the obligation to profess our faith, to proselytize like GATA. THE END IS NEAR, REPENT AND GET GOLD! For me Ari is a guru of money and for the most part apolitical. Look at it this way, if you haven't been scolded or applauded by Ari you haven't made much of an impression here. Goldbugs need thick skins when preaching to the unwashed masses. Don't let Ari get under your skin lest we lose you or him from the Forum. I have found it easy to pass over antagonistic posts because I know that their objective is to evoke a response. Silence is often "golden".
R PowellBickering#1287362/1/05; 08:52:47

From yesterday......

"Goldilox (1/31/05; 21:41:36MT - msg#: 128729)
About a year ago, someone postulated on this forum that PMs rise when gold advocates are bickering. I hope this trend continues."

I have mentioned this by way of reporting that some analysts watch for this bickering. Adam Hamilton and Richard Russell are two who come to mind. Personally, I don't give it too much validity and see it more as a curiousity or commentary on the market price but...who knows?

There has also been some food fighting, during the last few days, at kitco, mostly between the administration and some of the regular posters. The issue there is the administration's complaint of too many "off-topic" posts. Sound familar? This issue seems to re-present itself with some regularity. They too, discussed the issue of the POG being so much connected with political events.

As for political events versus the POG, was there a Iraq election outcome "premium" in the POG before the elections? If so, has it been "washed out" over the last few days? If that election turnout had been very low and marred with numerous bombings, where would the POG be now? What would it take to return this premium into the POG? Just something to think about and probably not all that significant to the POG over the course of many years. I think of it in the same manner that a colder than normal short term weather forecast lifts the price of heating oil. Warmer weather then takes it back down. Some say that this price is a more accurate indicator of coming weather, in the Northeast, than is the weatherman...?? Again, short term issues. Hey, maybe when Aristotle and rich are fighting over who's going to buy the next ale, you'll know the POG is nearing the next price peak? No, no Ari, good Sir, it's my turn to buy!

Prediction; just for the fun of it, that the prices of both gold and silver may consolidate for a few more weeks, maybe even fall a little more (but not much or for very long below their respective 200 moving averages), but then start higher for an extended time with silver convincingly moving above the $8.00 level (which may become support?) When do we start up? Before the end of Feb. Please remember, this Rhode Island Red chicken entrail reading of future prices is just for he-haws. I'm no more clarvoyent than any of those who claim to be! But you knew that! Now, as for silver and soybeans trending together.....?

968ECB's weekly financial statement.#1287372/1/05; 09:20:56

In the week ending 28 January 2005, the decrease of EUR 51 million in gold and gold receivables reflected the selling of gold by two Eurosystem central banks (consistent with the Central Bank Gold Agreement of 27 September 2004) and a purchase of gold coins by another Eurosystem central bank.

Gold an gold recievables : 125558,00 million euros.
Net foreign currency postion : 154,9 billion euros.

OvSA peek behind the non-obvious.#1287382/1/05; 09:43:37

The world is more intricate and covert
then to explain things East vs. West.
Who is investing billions of dollars in
Macao's gambling industry? Who is
transfering trillions of capital into
the East from the West and thereby owning
a huge chunk of resettled manufacturing
industry and financial hubs?
Is this official East vs. West scenario
a manufactured one to keep things humming?
Forgive me please for too political a
thought; but for balance, I'm clasping a
pre 1933 European coin in my hand, acquired
from our host in times, when no-one had
any inkling that our government was "managing"
this precious. It also explains some posters
apprehensions who thought in good faith that
our government wanted us to buy gold and silver
coin, when now the tables could be turned and
we could be accused of "hoarding" it.
What an ugly thought. There really should be
pressure on it to refrain from such possibility;
after all, right now, a "communist" China is
"encouraging" such hoarding...It reminds one of
the "home-school" affair; when home-schooling
became more popular, there was a movement on in
Congress, to have parents officially qualify as
teachers to keep home-schooling. When millions
of phone calls jammed up the congressional
offices, the issue was dropped like a hot potato.
On the other hand, gold being such an important
political tool...I just hope the government can
avoid being trapped into extreme measures...other-
wise, we all have to bite the bullet...Yes, Jeanne,
just trying to stir things up a bit...OvS

PS.: Every investment is, to an extent, a gamble.
Holding pre 1933 g.coin, in my opinion, is a risk
worth taking.

Buongiorno!memories#1287392/1/05; 10:12:40

Remember when we brave group of gold enthusiasts had only our own intuition, education, and perhaps a couple of fellows like James Dines to help with this awsome task?(dissecting events and defeating the enemy?)

Then came the World Gold Council--aha!--hope, hope--alas! nope, nope. They were born on, or went over to, the dark side.

Then came GATA, and with great flourish, they exposed what we all knew was the banksters carry trade scheme. Grazia! Mille Grazia! Then, for some vague reason over time, I found myself forgetting to attend their site--had "Puff, the Magic Dragon" "ceased his fearsome roar?" Dunno

Mostly, I found MK's forum to be so informative and nourishing, there was little need for other input. The great minds here IMHO, outclass anything else available.

Now, Captain Kirk never went into battle without his deflector screens up--and I read everything with my BS deflectors at at least one-third power. That said, I am in awe of the excellent analysis of many things here, ETF's for example. Yeah, I see it now! TYVVM!

For the most part, the discourse here is very civil. The clear mind doth seem to capture pure essence better than an angry or peevish one. Would that this extrodinary tone continue----for the alternative chances our suffering the fate of WGC and GATA. Got to keep my eye on the ball, as the banksters are throwing some very clever pitches these days.

A grateful toast to all!

Chris PowellGATA is far from dead, and it does a lot more than Internet bulletin board postings#1287402/1/05; 10:26:05

Reports of GATA's death on this forum are premature.

At the moment GATA is:

* Supporting Blanchard & Co.'s federal lawsuit in
New Orleans against JP Morgan Chase and Barrick
Gold over manipulation in the gold market, a suit
that is the successor to GATA's own lawsuit in U.S.
District Court in Boston, which was dismissed for
technical jurisdictional grounds that have been
removed in the New Orleans case. The New Orleans
case has already prompted an admission from Barrick
Gold that it is the agent of central bank policy in
the gold market. The New Orleans case is scheduled
to go to trial in a couple of months and stands to
be very interesting.

* Sending representatives to financial conferences
and institutions all over the world to spread the
word of the gold price manipulation scheme and
encourage investment in the precious metals.

* Developing plans to replace the World Gold Council
with an industry- and investor-based group that will
actually do advocacy and investigation contrary to
the interests of governments and market riggers. This
will be a major goal of GATA's conference in Dawson
City, Yukon, in August, and we've had some success
already in publicizing the conference worldwide.

The USAGold Forum is an invaluable platform for
sharing information among gold bugs and I consider
it a second home, but people are deluded if they
think that the world will be much changed by gold
bugs just talking to themselves. Sorry, guys, but
action and engagement change the world, not Internet bulletin board postings.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

NedYGM Re: msg 128720#1287412/1/05; 10:58:41

That my friend is a show stopper. You have vaulted leaps and bounds ahead of mere mortals with that perfect & quaint little story.

Yes indeed, I am a sinner! ;)

I have toiled for fiat and have bought the real thing. There certainly is a degree of irony & hyprocracy in the whole thing isn't there?

What a lovely message, I'm going to keep that. There must be a slant on that somehow for my 3 deliquent teenage children.

Truely, have a golden day.

KnallgoldUnderstanding Aristotle#1287422/1/05; 11:02:04

When tuning in on what my voice of empathy whispers,I get an idea on what his message is and why he reacts (t)his way.Well,just trying to understand him and intending to share this (valid or not) view with you.Let me try to explain it:

He KNOWS that FreeGold is coming-with all its consequences.It is not just one of many scenarios randomly coming to pass in some time to come,it just exists,as a not yet communicated fact.Like for a child the sensation of heat or gravity.Now try to feel like a parent:"NO!NO! my little darling,the vase will fall on the floor when you push it over the edge!" The kiddy might believe it or not (rather not-there goes the vase...),it might start a lengthy discussion-this all won't change the fact.And the child will possibly libel its parents as arrogant,know-it-all etc-all distraction:the vase WILL fall down.Period.

The parents know it,try to tell it to its beloved little child and yes,get a bit too aroused at times.You might know this,or something similar when thinking a few steps ahead and then seeing the blind ignorants running straight into the trap.Being smart or arrogant is not easy to separate and often comes together (but you knew this as a Goldbug?!)

There are probably some facts as a consequence of FreeGold, they just have to be accepted by us "childs"!I know its hard (and I'm often struggeling!!) and most will touch that hot plate paperGold as it seemed to be harmless when the plate was cold.

Pretty heavy statement here by the Goldfather (smile,this used to be DROOY JoeCalamari...) "I have an inkling that Gold is being managed to the maximum extend possible in the final period before it explodes out of the grip of the financial fraternity .." ---or just Another way of saying "Gold to da moon!"?

Gandalf the WhiteOh YES, Sir Topaz --- Things are changing in this WORLD! <;-)#1287432/1/05; 11:10:22

Topaz (2/1/05; 00:35:38MT - msg#: 128731)
@ Gandalf...Comex FND.
Thanks for the data LINK, Sir Topaz ! Yes, that looks to be an increasing STOPPER listing compared to history !
Things are begining to show a CHANGE !
We shall watch this closely.

Gandalf the WhiteLook Sir Rimh --- "SAME OL'E" US$ chart formations ! <;-)#1287442/1/05; 11:13:25

Topaz (2/1/05; 00:35:38MT - msg#: 128731)

Tick Tock !
Gandalf the WhiteOOPS --- HERE is the US$ Chart LINK !!#1287452/1/05; 11:17:44

I need refresher lessons in "Cut and Paste" methods !

YGMChris Powell...Dawson City August /05#1287462/1/05; 11:23:37

You'll have to keep Bill out of Diamond Tooth Gerties dancehall...All those long gorgeous legs being kicked up by the Can-Can dancing beauties and the Faro Table & Spinning Roulette Wheels could make him forget about the 'Cabal'and his passion for a couple hours....Then again maybe you should take him...You guys need/deserve some R & R for years of work on our behalf...Just don't let him throw too much money on the Stage as I've done...See you there!...Ken
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The European Union's effort to establish a common European market through the use of a single currency, the euro, is not the first time the countries of Europe have made an attempt at monetary standardization. This offer marks a previous effort fixed around gold...

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RimhYes, Gandalf, once again#1287482/1/05; 11:35:02

I was about to ask earlier if this was the third poke or prod to 84.1. But I suspect they will try to keep it's descent minimal leading up to Easy Al's fireside chat tomorrow, perhaps even give it a good boost in the morning before he speaks. Once that formality is out of the way we could be looking for an Angel Falls chart pattern, especially if Al's words and/or action lacks sufficient teeth (in the minds of the traders at least - we are already convinced that it is "too little, too late)

Thanks again for the chart!

TownCrierECB weekly financial statement, the rest of the story#1287492/1/05; 12:10:18

It has already been pointed out by 968 that the net impact of two European gold sales and one purchase for the week ended January 28th was a decline of 51 million euro, bringing the reserves of gold and gold receivables to EUR 125.558 billion.

Previously unreported, but of at least as much significance, was that the Eurosystem allowed its net position in foreign currency to be trimmed back during the week by 900 million euro, thus leaving the said figure of EUR 154.9 billion.

It seems like only yesterday that the size of the foreign currency position was double that of the gold. As time unfolds, there has been no special effort to maintain the foreign paper position of the Eurosystem's portfolio, whereas gold, despite measured sales, has experienced a net gain due to revaluations. This marks a course that prudence should follow. Choose gold.


TownCrierGold demand in India remains bullish#1287502/1/05; 12:18:31

Reuters, New Delhi
Demand for gold in India, the world's largest importer, is expected to remain bullish because of strong buying during the last leg of the wedding season and softer global prices...

...parents give the metal to their daughters for financial security....

^------(from url)-----^

A combined force of simplicity plus wisdom that bears repeating.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#12875102/01/05; 13:15:56">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Tuesday market excerpts

COMEX April gold closed at $422.90, down $1.20.

"Gold remains on the defensive on the belief the U.S. economy can miraculously boom despite a plethora of deficits and a consumer awash in debt," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, an investment advisory publication.

"Friday's employment release is setting up to be the most likely influence on gold's near-term direction," he said.

But "the fact that the short position of large funds on the [Commodities Exchange division of the New York Mercantile Exchange] is the highest since 2001 and bullish sentiment has all but disappeared in the gold community, suggest we could see a major bottom in gold within days," he said.

A drop all the way to the $410 level can't be ruled out, he added.

For now, "with the dollar trying and struggling to move higher, gold is just not ready to go yet," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities.

"When the dollar breaks, which could be very soon, gold should move back through $430 and far beyond that," he said.

Looking ahead, the market eagerly awaits two events on Wednesday's calendar:

The Federal Open Market Committee's announcement on U.S. interest rates and later, President Bush's State of the Union speech. And the Group of Seven, representing finance and monetary officials from the world's largest industrialized economies, will meet in Feb. 4-5 in London.

-----(see url for international economics news)----

Federal_ReservesDump the NEOCONS#12875202/01/05; 13:24:06

Dump the NEOCONS

Excessive Federal Spending creating a huge debt bomb
They favor Illegal Immigration, unprotected borders, voter fraud
Unbalanced unfettered trade with Asia with forex manipulation
Interventionist foreign policies, wars
Lip service to the Christian Right

Bring back the real conservatives!
These NEOCONS are destroying the middle class!

The only way to protect yourself for now is buying gold.


TownCrierG7 will come and go, but dollar's woes will stay#12875302/01/05; 13:26:47

NEW YORK, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The long-declining dollar will be on their minds when finance ministers from the Group of Seven richest countries meet Friday and Saturday in London, but analysts don't expect the currency's fortunes to shift any time soon.

No change is expected in the communique's language on foreign exchange, nor is China expected to loosen its pegged currency soon, which would push the dollar even lower.

With broad disagreement among global policy-makers about how to address the U.S. budget and current account deficits, few expect the dollar's prospects to change in the meeting's aftermath.

That's not to say the foreign exchange dilemma will not be high on the agenda.

"I am fairly confident that FX is going to be topic number one of the conversation."

...The communiques after the previous two meetings called for greater flexibility in exchange rates.

As the G7 meeting approaches, currency traders "are listening mostly to China," said ABN's Anderson.

^------(from url)----^

Almost remarkable in itself. If the U.S. no longer calls the tune as it did for long decades past, you will want to choose gold to help see you through the new era.


BelgianDialoque....#12875402/01/05; 13:32:09

@ LeSin msg#128706 : It is because a lot of history and present events have to be adsorbed and digested, that getting the whole gold-picture, is an exhausting enterprise.
Cavan man's reaction is evidence thereof. And he is here, right from the very beginning.
Copperfield's question/suggestion is confirming how difficult it is to get the whole picture.
Boilermaker is sending us very instructive posts. Ari keeps on emphasizing the "black and white" approach.
I wish to call for more "dialoque" (questions and answers) instead of fighting.

A/FOA have been providing us with a platform of thoughts/ideas. We should continue to build upon it and watch the events unfolding.
Example : Now that the general public knows that China is financing Putin's oil and gas policies...we can place another piece on the giant gold jig saw. More evidence that today's events are about the control of energy/resources.
Connect the fact that China has also liberalized gold.

Look what happened today with the US/Can goldmine(s) that were holding their product (gold) as a (wealth) asset !?
Where has the gold gone ?

The Gold Fields/Norilsk(Russia) goldmining story isn't finished yet. Russia has vital it wants gold !

But since we are supposed to remain "politically correct", we have to speak/communicate in general terms.
That's why the black(paper)-white(metal) controversy, keeps on living. That's why the euro-dollar fight is a divider.
Fixed ($) gold versus (€) floating gold. Gold-standard versus free-gold (read A. Fekete).

The € and the $ factions, are both on the move on multiple fronts. Hey, they even partially co-operate on certain fields. These paradoxes, is what confuses the classic goldbugs.

For the past 35 years, the International Monetary ($) System, was served with having gold remaining in the "grey"-zone (paper/metal). Now we are evolving to the "white" (metal) gold. There is an oil-"war" going on ! Gold will evolve out of its grey-zone together with the evolution(s) of this oil war. On top of this, there is a currency war ($-€) also the reason for having gold being grey.

In a political correct environment (an almost hysterical one), one cannot say the "war" word ! We, the global factions, all remain hypocritically polite (ideal aneasthetic) whilst trying to amputate each other's legs.

LeSin : Do you (still) need all the details as to underpin the general theories ? Example : The Sudan (Darfur) building crisis is simply China expanding its oil-interests overthere. Or, you wish to know all the details about the CBs + government agencies, slowing down on accumulating dollar-debt (consequences !) ? ...etc

Cavan Man : Do you really...really...think that A/FOA were "promoting" the euro currency !? Common man...what's the argumental reason for suggesting this ?

Ari : I say it here in black and white language : Accumulating physical gold in possession is NOW more wise than ever before.
You are putting the focus on gold from an historical/theoretical angle, whilst the timing of the change is rather a political affair. The * ambigious * US$ and EU€ evolving relationships, are indeed complicated (complicating) matters.

All : Will peace and tranquility ever come in the oil world affairs (energy and resources) ??? I don't think so ! Because "power" means that one can go on exchanging something of value for something valueless ! To whom or what is created (organized) turmoil serving ? The gold-management falls under this theory of brutal power struggle...rather than polite market forces. And do we see more or less brutality ? Does this mean that we are getting closer or further away from gold-change ?

C. Powell (GATA) : Why is it that GATA isn't bringing the oil and euro elements into the gold-manipulation accusation ? TIA.

Liberty HeadQuestions for Chris Powell#12875502/01/05; 14:05:52

First, I am in complete agreement with your comment about action and engagement changing the world. I also respect GATA's motives greatly.
I do think we must be selective about where we aim our actions, if we want to achieve our goals. Getting stuck in the quicksands of anti-trust litigation is a tremendous drain on valuable resources, with little to show for the expense.

My questions:
Suppose GATA wins it's legal battles in court. Do you think the power brokers will be likely to respect and abide by the courts decision? Do you think we are still a nation of laws?
Because I do not. I think the Constitution is alive in name only. I do not see any evidence that the powerful have any regard for anything that erodes their power base.
Why should they? They have all the thugs, money and simple-minded rhetoric can buy.
I must agree with Aristotle that buying physical gold is a better use of resources then chasing after a gov't that answers to nobody but itself.

Best Wishes

Cavan ManBelgian#1287562/1/05; 15:05:43

...because, it's a THOUGHT. Where are the messengers? There is a part of me that still (wants) to believe in the campfire stories. However, seven years is a long time to ponder. For me, physical gold has been a GREAT investment--NOT insurance. I bought at $250 and continued to buy. I've not sold a farthing in part becuase of the the messenger's tale(s). Also, the clearing price absent A/FOA and political will to manage the price surely is north of $600 anyway. All the best from a "common man" (with uncommon sense IMHO)...CM
HOOSIER GOLDBUGQuestions for Liberty Head#1287572/1/05; 15:52:17

Where is your evidence that BLANCARD & COMPANY and GATA are mired down in the quicksand of anti-trust litigation with regards to the pending case? Are Blanchard's attorneys that ridiculously stupid to even pursue the case? Should we tell Donald Doyle or our BLANCHARD & COMPANY brokers to petition to give it up? THANKS IN ADVANCE.
Belgian@Cavan Man#1287582/1/05; 16:47:44

I fully agree with you, that asking WHY A/FOA isn't posting anymore, is a very good (justified) question indeed.
I think that they have said all that had to be said and that their, goldhistory/ideas/thoughts/theories, are indeed evolving.
What exactly are you (or others) expecting from those former messengers ? Another theory...timetable...?
Or are you suggesting that they (A/FOA) had it completely wrong and that we simply should hope (stick to the idea)that gold continues to exist as it has done during the past 35 years ? A speculative metal with leveraged paper !? Are we simply waiting the metalprice reaching the arbitrary $600 target, take the (leveraged) profit and walk away to business as usual ?

You are not at all "alone" with the torturing gold doubts, CM ! It is eactly this phenomenon that should make you think and render you much more suspicious about gold's future that does not materializes as you and many others were expecting (hoping) >>> $600/Oz NOW.

You very much liked the campfires' stories...then ! Why not anymore, now ? Do you prefer the stockmarket, dollar, IRs, oil - stories, of today ? Are these stories coming true as they are pictured ? Dow=36,000...POO=$22-$28...IRs=+6%...rising US$ exch.rate...rising goldmineprices...flourishing economy and rising peace and freedom...end of gold-goldprice-management through legal action...

A/FOA's thoughts are evolving but not YET happening, after seven years. But just make a list of what "did" happen already apart from freegold. Do you remember the "zeuro" and oilprice stories in the then unsuspected times of campfire talks... !?

Do me a favor and explain us how you come to that $600/Oz figure for the metal and WHY exactly is it we haven't reached it already. Thanks for the dialoque, CM.

GoldendomeMoney to wealth#1287592/1/05; 17:20:21

Today, exchanged currency- for a 1910-P $20. Saint. MS-62
CoBra(too)Sturm im Wasserglas ...#1287602/1/05; 17:24:40

Coming back from a full day of meetings downtown I see that I'm somehow responsible for "Another" Storm in a glass of water - "Sturm im Wasserglas" - thank god, not another Tsunami.

Our self professed opinion leaders of gold advocacy, sorry almost forgot "free gold" advocacy at their descriptive best are out to get your soul. It's more like the salvation army asking you - "have you read the bible lately?" - and even if you say- absolutely - they won't absolute you from their own interpretation of the script.

Well, that's a real treat and neat to hear the gospel you yourself have preaching forever. Alas, you've been negligent to preach the pure gospel, where God is divided from gold merely by a missing letter. The missing "l" is also apparent in the US (il-)legal tender FRN notes these days.

How I miss the old days of God bless America and the Dollar was as good as gold.

While the Pres is probably just now voicing his State of the Union mess(age - to be kind)I contemplate the flurry of posts by friend A(ri)and probably Belgian too and I feel somewhat - looking for a word - estranged, better probably saddened by preaching to the choir - the choir, not understanding the potential reality of your mantra.

A mantra, which has and will cost numerous investors a bundle. That's just a slight drawback to the
pure gold advocates being great in theory, poor though, in any practical sense. I've always been for the approach even MK has been preaching for years - physical gold as insurance as well as portfolio insurance. - The rest is waiting for Godot - and we all know by now, Godot never comes. And why should he - as he knows that the global PTB has "Another" agenda and will keep the system afloat - even as one of the main pillars the US-$ bites dust. The replacements are shaping up to fill the potential void.
And no, I don't think it'll be € in the longer run - it may well be the Yuan.
Anyway - we haven't seen a real bull market in gold outside of the US FRN notes yet. Be patient this will come - as with all patience the Ari and Belgian scenario may never unfold in our, nor our great kids future.
The globalized world as such has played for very high stakes and in this power struggle gold will remain a paria. A paria, which will eventually flex its muscles before it will be beaten down again for reasons political correctness or worse.
Meantime, I do feel we're at the early stages of a hard asset cycle - a cycle which may last for a generation. Lets grab the opportunities in front of us and let's not get waylaid by the pharisees. cb2

Black BladeGold Lower Today #1287612/1/05; 17:37:08{2F28BD9F-B99B-4FC1-896C-AA6F36A7954E}


"Gold remains on the defensive on the belief the U.S. economy can miraculously boom despite a plethora of deficits and a consumer awash in debt," said Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, an investment advisory publication. "Friday's employment release is setting up to be the most likely influence on gold's near-term direction," he said. But "the fact that the short position of large funds on the [Commodities Exchange division of the New York Mercantile Exchange] is the highest since 2001 and bullish sentiment has all but disappeared in the gold community, suggest we could see a major bottom in gold within days," he said. A drop all the way to the $410 level can't be ruled out, he added.

For now, "with the dollar trying and struggling to move higher, gold is just not ready to go yet," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities. "When the dollar breaks [lower] -- which could be very soon -- gold should move back through $430 and far beyond that."

"I think we got some flight-to-quality liquidation. Some folks had bought this thing thinking there would be a problem with the election; they all bailed out," said James Quinn, AG Edwards & Sons commodity commentator.

Black Blade: Nothing wrong with a huge short position. It does not take much to force a "squeeze" and watch the monkeys run. Over all and intermediate to long term, there is nothing that can possible stop this runaway train. The twin deficits are simply overwhelming and cannot be covered now. In short - "Game Over" for the US dollar. Right now it is simply a "currency war" or "competitive currency devaluation" in a race to the bottom of a bottomless pit.

YGMThe Cafe Tonite...#1287622/1/05; 18:06:15

Will allow some to see how YGM intends to gain more Gold Coins for my "Got Some" stash...YGM
Cavan ManHello Belgian#1287632/1/05; 19:03:36

First and foremost, I believe anyone who has written so exctensively, so passionately, so eloquently, so logically and so mysteriously as has A/FOA has not re-appeared either because:

1. They are dead
2. They fear the Patriot Act or some esoteric derivation
3. They like to write compelling fiction and are onto ANOTHER subject/ web site.

As to my holdings, I hold considerable physical gold--well over a third of NET. Next, I own EURO and junior exploration stocks. Finally, I own US T-Bills (alas).

Regarding the $600, I have read studies and studied opinions on the clearing price (supply equals demand). They have all been consistent. Perhaps plagarism is the fiend? Anyway, Belgian, I live in a NOW and MOVE ON world. I am held accountable for results and hold others to the same discipline. I still like the bedtime stories. However, it is time for a modicum of CONCRETE evidence for those of us who have been set upon this long, winding road. Best....CM

Chris PowellReply to Liberty Head about GATA#1287642/1/05; 19:07:27

Thanks for your post. To try to answer your

* I disagree with your characterization of anti-trust
litigation as "quicksand." GATA's anti-trust lawsuit
in Boston allowed us to get a lot of evidence on the
record merely as part of our formal complaint. It also
forced the U.S. government to declare on the record
in court that it claims the power to rig the gold
market. Blanchard's subsequent anti-trust suit, in
New Orleans, has forced Barrick Gold to admit that it
is an agent of the central banks -- and the New
Orleans lawsuit, unlike the Boston lawsuit, has just
achieved the power to compel the production of evidence
and testimony from the bad guys. We don't have to
win a judgment to win an anti-trust case in practical
terms; all we have to do is expose the bad guys, to
compel production of the right evidence and testimony,
since the gold price suppression loses most of its
utility if it loses its surreptitiousness.

* That may answer your first question: Will the
powers that be obey the courts? Maybe, maybe
not. But we feel that we win merely if we expose
the bad guys. What if it becomes public record,
admitted by those most involved, that, say, Morgan
Chase and Barrick regularly act as the agents of
the central banks and particularly the U.S.
Treasury and the Fed to rig the gold price? The
whole investment world will take note and begin to
act much differently as it begins to understand the
purposes of the gold price rig -- to deceive the
investment world and to help rig other markets --
and as it begins to understand that the real gold
price is not the price being reported every day.

* Is the United States still a nation of laws? GATA
will proceed as if it is and figures that much good
can be done by proceeding that way. But if the United
States is no longer a nation of laws, as citizens we
have to work to restore it. We have no choice. Most
of the power of the U.S. government is intimidation.
It can be beaten, especially in the open. Indeed,
as of now it IS being beaten in New Orleans.

* GATA is all for the buying of physical gold and
silver. Enough physical demand may destroy the
price rigging EVENTUALLY -- but then again it may not,
if the use of infinite derivatives financed by central
bank paper continues to fake gold and silver miners
into selling their products too cheaply. GATA
believes that action quite apart from the buying of
metal can hasten the end of the price rigging and
the creation of a free market in the metals. That's
why we do what we do.

Thanks for listening.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Liberty HeadResponse To Hoosier Goldbug#1287652/1/05; 19:12:34

I don't care that much about the pedigree of your huntin' dogs.
When there is meat in the locker, I will be quick to offer my praise and feast on crow.
Until that day, best wishes.

Cavan ManFurther, (dear) Belgian....#1287662/1/05; 19:19:09

I would add as a #4:

4. They don't fhave the stones having wasted so much of everyone's (priceless) time; but this is unlikely and yet again, polemical.

I would say if you or anyone who is a "free gold" believer cannot look themselves in their spreadsheet and say "yes, I am 33% PLUS metal", then, I would say take a hike and get a life (I'm not accusing you personally). I mean, all the homage paid to the posters of yore; where are they now and why can't they talk plainly and not in riddles. Cut the BS! You've got your concept of how the market will unfold and others have theirs'. What's the problem and why the polemical tirades of Aristotle couched in erudite, intellectual discourse. The subject of GOLD is so long and so complicated, it simply cannot be boiled into a four quart "free gold" or GATA or ETF or whatever saucepot!

So, get diversified, buy physical gold and silver (from USAGOLD; MK is a PRINCE), buy some juniors and sit on liquidity because opportunities will present themselves to buy VALUE in different aset classes eventually! Rgds..CM

Clink!@ YGM#1287672/1/05; 19:30:02

After shameless self-publicity like that, I had to go and look. I'm not sure, but do you mean being paid for being photographed ? (That is you in the photo at the Matisse Table, isn't it ?) LOL

StevensMy Take: Looking Forward (written end of 2004)#1287682/1/05; 19:59:12

In the beginning of 2004 I wrote my outlook for this year:

"First, domestically, I doubt that anything will change much from last year. The market will continue up, commodities will continue up, the inflation rate will average about 3%. Interest rates have probably established their range of 3.75 to 4.50, basis the 10 year bond, and the dollar should only fall to 80-85 basis the dollar index." My assessment of where gold is going has changed a bit. I said I thought gold had another 100 dollars in it, making the highs near 450. I think we could go somewhere between 465 and 530, this year."

In trying to forecast what the Economic Landscape will look like in 2005, we first need the standard Caveat: Barring any crisis, which I personally don't see imminent signs of, and are rarely predictable anyway, the year should look something like this. First, the GDP is being estimated at 4% next year, give or take a half per cent. I'll take the under, and go for 3.5% or lower.

Inflation should run in the 2.75 to 3.25 range, a tad higher than this year. My reasoning is that I believe the Chinese currency will be revalued in 2005. That means that everything we import from China will tend to rise in price -- Walmart just won't be the same. But, I also expect exports to rise in price due to world growth, a declining dollar, and shortages of commodities. This is very unusual and will prevent inflation from coming down, even in the face of FED tightening.

Because I expect the FED to continue raising the Federal Funds rate, I expect the 10 year note to move up to the 5-5.5% range. I think that a Fed Funds rate of 3-3.5% will represent a neutral to slightly positive interest rate, and at that point, the Fed's tightening will end.

I think the DOW will trade 1000 points either side of it's present 10,500 area, and I think the dollar will range between 75 and 87 basis the dollar index. I think gold will be confined to within the 400-500 range, and my guess is that the dollar rallies towards the 87 area and gold falls to the 400 area early in the year. Timing is always iffy, but my reasoning is that as the FED continues it's tightening, it's going to start to pinch. Fears of higher long rates, lower profits and a slowing Economy, will be front loaded. However, once the markets have discounted the end of the Fed's tightening, the pressure will be off. Hence, it's logical to conclude that the first part of the year will eventually see a declining stock market and declining gold -- and rising interest rates and a rising dollar, and a reversal in these trends in the 2nd half of the year.
There are several things to keep one's eye on in 2005 that are of critical importance. Will the Chinese revalue, by how much, and how do the markets take the adjustment?

Who will replace Alan Greenspan? He is scheduled to leave January of 2006, I believe, but his successor will probably be named in mid 2005. It will be especially detrimental to the dollar and inflation if the market does not trust his successor.

And lastly, how will the Bush agenda fare in Congress. Let me take some time on this one. George W. Bush just made a remarkable speech at his Economic Conference last week. What he proposed was absolutely Reaganesque.

If you remember, The four pillars of Reaganomics were, deregulation, free trade, lower taxes, and a sound monetary policy. It was a Radical program that fundamentally changed the direction of the US Economy from "Stagflation," to 25 years of prosperity, technological advancements, higher living standards, and monetary stability.

Today, Bush has proposed his own set of "pillars," that if enacted into law anywhere near their proposed form, could jettison this country into an extended period of unprecedented progress. In one speech President Bush has proposed dealing with the huge unfunded liabilities facing this country by reducing the deficit, and reforming both Social Security and the Health Care System. Reagan brought up this topic and was screamed down so strenuously, that as popular as he was, and with Republicans in control of both houses in congress, he never mentioned it again. In fact it has been a taboo subject in politics for a generation. ( Shows how far we have come, but the fight will be fierce, and is definitely in doubt.)

Bush also wants tax simplification and tax Reform, along with educational reform and tort reform, all very important initiatives. I must say, I like the talk, but talking the talk is one thing, walking the walk is another.

The key here is keeping your eye on the ball. Any privatization of Social Security must be acceptable to the markets. CATO, one of my favorite think tanks, points out that borrowing two trillion dollars to save 11 trillion is good refinancing and certainly better than defaulting on all, or part, of the 11 trillion by doing nothing. But it isn't the 11 trillion that we need to be worried about, it's the estimated 69 trillion we're on the hook for in Medicare. In effect the Government has written a blank check for the Baby Boomers scheduled to start using the system as early as 2008. By 2011, the" run" really begins. At least with Social Security, we can get a pretty good estimate as to what kind of money we need to come up with. With Medicare it is open ended and depends on the medical demands on the system. 69 trillion is only an estimate, and could be low.

It is in how they handle the Medicare question that will determine success or failure. But to be sure, Privatization is a step in the right direction.

As to Tax Simplification and reform, if it is a flat tax, and if it is transparent, and revenue neutral, then it is a "good" tax. If it is any other non transparent tax -- watch your wallet. A sales tax can be regressive and hurt the consumer, but a Value Added Tax is the worst. It's non transparent and designed to increase taxes in a devious way. It is one of the main reasons that Europe is doing so poorly.

Both tort reform and education reform, as envisioned by the architects of the bills are, I believe conceptually constructive, but watch the fine print.

All and all, I'm more optimistic than even a couple of weeks ago, given what I'm hearing. We will watch, we will wait, and we will witness what the future has to bring, in this wonderful and wacky world of Economics and Finance.

Liberty HeadResponse to Chris Powell#1287692/1/05; 20:31:03

I truly appreciate your thoughtful response and respect your point of view.
Before last November, I also thought exposure of misdeeds would be sufficient in and of itself.
I have learned that rationality and reason are easily overpowered by emotional impulse when folks are spooked. Herds of nervous people are little different than herds of nervous cattle. One well timed shot, and the stampede is on. The "Bridge Out Ahead" signs will be trampled, and folks will still call evolution a theory.
I know, I'm cynical.

Best Wishes

GoldiloxVAT#1287702/1/05; 20:58:07

@ Stevens (and Belgian)

Why is (in your opinion)a VAT different from a sales tax? Aren't they both gross consumption taxes?

I seriously doubt a flat tax would ever pass the special interest groups' and lobbiests' muster, as it would tend to penalize the large capital masses.

It sort of fits into the same mold as full SSI taxation. Adding the SSI tax to incomes beyond 90K is very unpopular, especially when means testing is even whispered.


YGMSir Clink..#1287712/1/05; 21:01:34

Yes you're right that is shameless...meant to be a dig @ do nothing but buy Gold attitude...Have to make money somehow...Maybe TC will delete...Sorry...Ken

Belgian, I am always pleased to read your contributions. Yes, I do agree with probably 95% of your conclusions, assumptions and strategies in ciphering this chaotic world of Gold - Oil - US$ - Euro - other player Yuan + Yen . Wow, it is complex,integrated incestuous, intriguing and marvellous.

Belgian said:
"In a political correct environment (an almost hysterical one), one cannot say the "war" word ! We, the global factions, all remain hypocritically polite (ideal aneasthetic) whilst trying to amputate each other's legs."

"Do you (still) need all the details as to underpin the general theories ? Example : The Sudan (Darfur) building crisis is simply China expanding its oil-interests overthere. Or, you wish to know all the details about the CBs + government agencies, slowing down on accumulating dollar-debt (consequences !) ? ...etc"

Sir Belgian,
Exactly, we grow ever the more hysterical when confronted with intellectual double speak (see A Greenspan). Or as a senior acquaintance calls it "intellectual flatulence" otherwise known as gas-bagging. Political correctness has now matured and grown to become a monster problem. Political correctness defies and does not condone simple, sharp, accurate conversation and the conveyance of thoughts and opinions. We now here people being silenced because "he/she is too opinionated". It has become correct to not have an opinion on anything. I for one will not buy into that type of brainwashing.

Yes!! A thousand times Yes! I am a simple person. I will never be convinced by any argument where or when I am dismissed because I require simplified and accurate answers. I am sickened by responses as, "it is too complex to provide simple answers". When, we all know, well and good, that the simple answer, if ever given or provided, would be understood by even the common man.

Yes Sir Belgian, I still require and demand in all facets of my life (business & social) to know the -


Cavan Man,
Thanks for chiming in. Have missed your thoughts - and the challenges that you present. Be well and prosper.

Cheers and thank you to USA Gold Forum - It is always a pleasure sharing with the great minds on this forum.

Yes, as a supporter of the REAL GOLD - GOLD THAT YOU CAN HOLD TOUCH & FEEL - Now 38% and growing of my net worth.

helpmeMy brain hurts!#1287732/1/05; 22:30:16

I wish to purchase a small amount of gold, for the best price possible, as a souvenier but there are too many variables that affect the price. For instance, there are sites that advertise $50 American Gold Eagles that have different prices for different years. Why?
One ounce of pure (.999) gold coins cost less than $50 American Gold Eagle coins which are .94% pure gold. Why?
Thank you !


GoldiloxHistory of Silver Mines#1287742/1/05; 22:52:14

History Channel in 10 minutes

10:00PM PST

GoldiloxFirst Time Buyer#1287752/1/05; 22:55:51

@ helpme

Click the link "First-Time Buyers" above. For more info, call the number of the CPM office (our host), and they'll happily send you some introductory information.

GoldiloxSilver Mines - Gold Mines#1287762/2/05; 00:01:53

Having lived in virginia City in 1995-6, that show held a lot of nostalgia for me.

Now they're starting an hour on the South Africa Gold mines.

TownCrierTo the poster called 'helpme'#1287772/2/05; 00:58:04

The reason one ounce coins of pure (.9999) gold such as Canadian Maple Leafs or Austrian Philharmonics may be cheaper than than the U.S. Eagle bullion coin (.9167) is simply a matter of market premium, not gold content. Each coin would contain a full net ounce of actual gold. The Eagle coin would consequently have a greater gross weight on account of its alloy. The same is true of the krugerrand, and it is "cheaper" than any other. The reason for the differing premiums on the same amount of gold is that various gold coins and bullion investment items have differing investment appeal in the global market. Sometimes this is because different types of coins meet different objectives.

You said you were looking to purchase "a small amount of gold, for the best price possible". What defines small? Tenth ounce? One ounce? Several ounces?

If you are looking for a good deal on tenth ounces, you can hardly beat tenth ounce Maple Leafs available through USAGOLD-Centennial. (see url)

If it is one or several ounces that you must have, by your criteria of "cheapness" alone you can't beat USAGOLD's one ounce krugerrands. (see url)

More sophisticated investment goals, however, might dictate a gravitation toward other gold items such as British Sovereigns or historic U.S. gold coinage, raw or graded.

For small orders, call the USAGOLD trading desk 1-800-869-5115 Ext. 110 for additional insights and friendly assistance. It's a fluid market, and therefore the opportunity for uniquely good deals can come and go daily. The only way to know is to call.


Belgian@ CM @ COBRA @ LeSin#1287782/2/05; 01:57:24

Believe it or not, but your posts of today are what I consider, ENJOYABLE "real dialogue". 1/ "Waiting for Godot" and 2/ "Concrete Evidence" !!!

My simpliest of answers are "Nothing seems what it is" and "Realities go much further than fiction". And hasn't history given us "concrete evidence" that "Godot" doesn't exist. Aren't we always on the move (on the road) beyond our memory capacity ? Digestable wisdom and not intellectual flatulence, no ?

My intuitive rationale says that "changes" are indeed coming. Simply because the "statists" are being cornered.

President Bush's state of the union will be about "privatization" ! The same is happening in old collectivist Euroland as well. This is a dramatic "change" gentlemens (and ladies) ! The rationale behind privatization goes much further than the statist might imagine (fiction). FreeGold will be part of that privatization process. RESPONSIBILIZATION !!!

Behind the screens of public appearances, there are other people working on the changes. After each war, there comes peace again as night follows day.

Why have a "gold-insurance" when (as a statist) one is convinced that the paper-house will never burn (Godot)?
Is there not concrete evidence of "smoke" ? Yep, you will probably all agree about the smoke...but disagree about "fire", right ?
Same about the hot soup that never will be consumed as hot as it is served. A classic statist's view !
This happens all the time when "real ongoing arguments" are minimalized. And how many arguments are being hoarded here in the archives with on top the daily new arguments that are provided (detected).

Look at all the efforts that are being made as to minimalize the "insurance" function of gold. Realize how "contradictional" gold is presented to the public : insurance, hedge, speculation...etc.
You seem to agree that gold only has a symbolic function with some industry attached to it !? A planet that becomes recklessly ir-responsible has a lot of interest in keeping gold symbolic and denigrate gold's (freegold) real and original function of general responsibility.

Do you really think (are convinced) that this globalizing (changing) world can/shall/will keep on running on the established dollar-system !? The answer is probably "yes", because the "present" concrete evidence is saying so. I never believed that Godot ever I'm never waiting for him. I watch the changes evolving and know (realize) that "tsunamis" do exist !

The dollar "talks" INCREASINGLY about "tighthening"...Again. Do you believe that this talk (effort) will be somehow successfull ? What has 35 years of concrete dollar history learned us ? Statists, simply believe that the whole world will stick to the dollar train and will collectively go down, with it ! I don't.
Gold will NOT remain a "symbol" but will be re-instated in it's practical utility, 100%. And in a "process" there are only pieces of concrete evidence that keep on piling up.
This evidence is being burried with the thick anti fire blanket of goldprice management !!!
Thanks you for the nice dialogue, gentlemens.

TownCrierCavan Man, on timelines#1287792/2/05; 01:58:47

It's true enough that a (short-ish) timeline on an individual basis of perspective can be highly significant, viewed personally with regard to its impact, while in the bigger picture of the social sphere of international developments, even a much muich longer timeline can appear to be a hasty event (from that perspective).

Personally experienced, seven years since the time of ANOTHER and FOA's economic expositions can be highly significant. However, their talk always had the flavor of an international scale of events, and from that perspective, seven years is not but a blib in time. I think they reasonably conveyed a sense of the timeline with the prediction that we would see this unfold "in our lifetime". No sooner, no later. But even there, it must be acknowledged that some of us are closer to the grave, some closer to the cradle. The timing "prediction", therefore, must be taken more as an indication that it will happen within a generation. Say anywhere between seven (with benefit of hindsight) and twenty years.

On a social development perspective, considering the whole of human history and developement, the financial evolution from the pre-WWI fixed gold monetary standard evolved relatively rapidly from 1914 to the post-WWII Bretton Woods gold exchange monetary standard by 1945. Roughly thirty years. (And during this time, we must not forget that Germany's currency system was hyperinflated into nothingness in a personal blink of an eye, culminating in 1923).

It was following a subsequent thirty years, taking us to the mid- to late-1970s, that the big picture evolved further, giving rise to the European Monetary System in 1979.

A subsequent two decades of exchange rate mechanisms and addtional evolutionary economic treaties gave rise to the EMU and the euro in 1999. Only six years into that system, one would be hard pressed to think it fully-fledged. It is a revolutionary new treatment of gold reserves in the grand scheme of the monetary system, a distinct departure from the original IMF model, that will define this currency system, and by design act to give it a competitive advantange over the cloaked unilateral system it looks to replace. Because this is politically driven, when it comes to matters of timing and social opportunism, who can possibly provide accurate predictions of precisely "when" and "how"? It is probably only fair to say that this latest post-post-Bretton Woods creation is too far along the gestation process to be aborted. The euro, in fact, is already a toddler, and day by day learning to walk better from nation to nation.

That isn't to say that some other currency won't outpace it. But it is likely that any such currency will be crafted around the same revolutionary floating gold model -- because, if for no other reason, that has become the state-of-the-art in central banking best management practices, driven by the common interest of warding off systemic risk and enhancing sustainability of the system.

The bottom line is that we are each unique individuals, with unique timelines based on age and income potential and past accumulated wealth. We must each therefore attempt to fairly evaluate our own situation and sense of personal immediacy as to how it might be ultimatley impacted or enhanced by the generational trend unfolding in the macro international environment.

To go out on a limb, I would predict that anyone who had at least ten years left in themselves could buy gold with the confidence that they will see themselves richly rewarded by the new paradigm's looming revaluation of their yellow metallic assets.

And as shown with the hyperinflationary 1923 Germany example, even as global trends can appear to unfold slowly regarding the monetary paradigm, local events can radically alter the perception and the immediate need for gold.

kind regards,

TopazGold ...not Anothers Liability.#1287802/2/05; 02:31:11

This hackneyed phrase is clearly not given enough thought in our world nowadays.
-I have 33, 38, 100% of my assets "invested" in Gold (Bullion, Shares, etf's, and the like)- imo doesn't cut it ...not from a "Sovereign Individuals" pov anyways.

Gold just IS! $ or E or ANY price notwithstanding...and if you can embrace this concept, you'll know how/where/why to hold it.

Belgian@ COBRA : Sturm im Wasserglas msg#128760#1287812/2/05; 03:18:03

Like your particular post very much, not in the least for the clear straithforward talk.

You (+ the majority) : ...Gold will remain a paria...We are on the early stages of a "hard asset" cycle...
Isn't this "also" a mantra, Sir !?


This is the clue, cobra ! All remain confident that we will get that genuine economic recovery and we will get it it...the dollar way !? Note my emphasis on "genuine". Will it be usual !? Can we keep on calling this a "genuine" (and stable) growth !? You will certainly say, yes. I don't believe in it and see the hyper-price-inflation as classic, historical solution of last resort. Simply because of that nasty zeuro (and its concept) that will always be in the dollar's way.

This is NOT a storm in a glas of water...anymore, dearest cobra. Again, I must emphasize that this globalizing world is changing in its "rapport de forces" (balance of powers).

The structural reforms that we "all" need to do are too big and all embracing. What kind of economic recovery can bear such a huge reform !? Did we make any reforms during the periods when there was a consensus on the growing (?) economy ? No we did NOT ! The need for structural reforms keeps piling up and the global economy is geting stuck deeper and deeper in its artificial stimulus environment.
We just keep on trying to "talk" it up whilst "colonizing" as never before ! We are now "producing" a false sense of relative stability. I am afraid that you underestimate the substantial evidence of this.

This is what produces the idea of "opportunity cost" on the gold matters. Keep on diversifying and you will make it through this tempory malaise. I still can't agree with this view. W've been talking already too long about the structural reforms that we all know very well, must be implemented. We don't "do" it, simply because we can't do it anymore. We went a bridge too far and the world keeps changing. It will change us, the complacent Western traditionalists. The building Asian force is a concrete fact and w're gone have to deal with it much sooner and more decisive than we ever thought. We will have to change...adapt ! Same story for the changing oil/resource-power.

The glas is not half full but half empty. The real storms have yet to come. I refuse to remain blind for the desperate actions that the colluding forces within the political economy are using to create a general atmosphere of calm and false stability. The kind of (any) growth that we might experience, remains suspicious to me. Yes, I do agree that this attitude (of mine) might be costly AS TIME GOES BY. But I made my choice and as long as nothing changes fundamentally choice remains valid. Maybe it is the fact that I can afford to make this particular choice, that is playing. But that's a personal (private) matter.

One last friendly remark : C. Powell is not answering my question. His silence tells me more than any answer ever could. I mean this "friendly" and with much understanding and respect!

Belgian@ SIR TOWNCRIER#1287822/2/05; 03:33:36

WHAT A WONDERFULL CONCLUSIVE POST !!! What a wonderfull place this Centennial Precious METALS is !!!

And whilst I was enjoying your "balanced" reality conclusion, I watch the ongoing frentic promotion of the "contract" alternatives on the financial screen. Have more "contracts" instead of "real" things ! What does this evidence !? Contracts are representing a notional value (???) of already more than 200- TWO HUNDRED - TRILLION...wit a "T" !!! How can one possibly remain "insured" with a "fixed" ..."FIXED" !? Goes beyond me.


BelgianObservation of today's concrete facts of significance....#1287832/2/05; 04:58:52

Everybody (theee markets) is on hold with regards to the dollar. A. Greenspan...State of the union...G7.
When in doubt, the dollar is left alone !!! Where has that former evident $-safe haven effect gone ? This wednesday action is not an "isolated" piece of evidence but a significant (concrete) evidence of increasingly building, systemic aversion, from the dollar(system). Zeuro up and POG/POO consolidating.

They,...the financial media + TPoliticalPTB...keep on stressing that this happens because of "temporary" tensions that will fade away as time goes by !? What a mantra-esk theoretical flatulence.

I don't like to be pushed with my nose on the windshield as to prevent me from looking any further than the tips of my shoes. I wish to have gold's historical background as a magnifying glas (binocles) to look forward into the dark.

Feel the building tensions and fear about the IRs AND the exchange rates !!! One wrong "word" and one expierences a dramatic (financial) reaction. What does this say about our "situation" !? Can there be "intervened" ad infinitum as to keep separating the smoke from the fire ?

Stevensgoldilox#1287842/2/05; 07:57:41

My understanding of the difference between a sales tax and a value added tax, is that a sales tax is taxed once by the retailer, but a vat is imposed at every stage of production. The producer is responsible for paying the tax to the government, therefore the receipts are less transparent to the citizenry than a sales tax would be. Between the two, the sales tax would be "cleaner" while the vat would be more insidious.
Noble1Sir Aristotle-Re:Chart#1287852/2/05; 08:06:21

The 3 month chart that you referred to in your msg# :128505 is back into alignment. Would you please expound on how you are interpreting this chart?
KnallgoldSNB Gold sales proceeds#1287862/2/05; 08:51:58

The swiss gov. has finally decided that the proceeds of its Goldsales will be distributed to cantons (2/3) and state (1/3) which btw is simply according to constitution.This will end all political discussions (=distribution according to its specific electorate).The most strange proposal was for a solution which will "keep the substance" which meant putting the money into an interest bearing fund.Well,the substance is mostly GONE now.

The money will now probably used to reduce deficits: state gets 7 billion sFr. on a total deficit of about 125billion,cantons can reduce their 150billion deficit by 14billion.Not a lot of mileage from 1300t of Gold if you ask me-but then we knew Gold is terribly undervalued.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Experience first-hand the unifying power, security, and staying-power of gold#1287872/2/05; 10:04:27">gold 20 franc coins
ge Anthony Deden on Google#12878802/02/05; 11:19:14

and on money and chocolate, among other things.
melda laureKnallgold, SNB, Why I dont want $1000 gold.#1287902/2/05; 14:20:57

Imagine you're a government. Of course, you're bankrupt. That is the usual state of affairs.

Were you a corporation with 1000$ in liabilities and 1 ounce of real assets then in bankruptcy your DEBTS would be liquidated and the creditors would get a portion of the assets. Roughly, at the rate of 1000$/ounce. That is what bankruptcy is- debt liquidation. We mistakenly refer to "liquidation" of the assets, but it is the CREDITORS who are the ones being whacked with the ninnyhammer, i.e. Liquidated.

After bankruptcy, you the government are broke, to be sure, but debt free.
Ahh, but you are a government. So instead you liquidate your ASSETS (instead of your debt). You sell your 1 ounce for 20$ and 67 cents. The LUCKY BUYER gets a decent asset at a market price. You now have $979.33 in liabilities.

Upon entering bankruptcy you (the government) will have NO ASSETS and STILL have 99.9% or more of your liabilities (what's the gold backing of a typical government these days? on a balance sheet basis of course, since there's no convertibility... it's sub 0.0001 isnt' it)

Your creditors are REALLY liquidated.
I'll take the seat of the lucky buyer. (who probably got real paper instead of physical, but that's another story)

The swiss look a bit silly,
But SURINAME really wore the clown suit.

(makes that 1000$/ouce target look less tempting doesn't it?)

TownCrierOne for the record: FOMC raises rates 25bp#1287912/2/05; 15:02:13

February 2, 2005 Press Release

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to raise its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2-1/2 percent.

The Committee believes that, even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative and, coupled with robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing ongoing support to economic activity. Output appears to be growing at a moderate pace despite the rise in energy prices, and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually. Inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained.

The Committee perceives the upside and downside risks to the attainment of both sustainable growth and price stability for the next few quarters to be roughly equal. With underlying inflation expected to be relatively low, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero; and Gary H. Stern.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 3-1/2 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco.

^-------(from url)------^

"even after this action, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative"

Trying to print our way to prosperity may have a political shine, 24k gold plating, but once we scratch through the surface, through the exposed portion of glass we can see the inflation genie within, straining to burst out of the bottle. Were he here, Chairman Greenspan would remind us that once out, there is no easy way to get the genie back inside.

In its statement the Fed can talk as if it can, "at a measured pace", remove the current policy accommodation, but in practice in may find that measured rate hikes are merely an acknowledgement of the market's own forward rate depreciation as if already under the spell of the genie within. Something akin to the high interest rates you've seen in so many weak latin American currencies.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1287922/2/05; 15:41:07">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Wednesday market excerpts

Gold rises after Fed interest rate hike

February 2 (CBS.MW) -- Gold futures moved higher Wednesday after the Federal Reserve did the expected in raising U.S. interest rates while leaving its policy statement virtually unchanged. COMEX April gold last traded at $423.60 in the after-hours session, up 60 cents.

Futures barely budged ahead of the rate announcement, prompting prices to close out the regular session at $423, up 10 cents.

The Federal Open Market Committee increased its target for overnight interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point Wednesday afternoon, in line with marketexpectations. The Fed didn't make major changes to its policy statement, once again concluding that policy "accommodation" could be removed at a "measured" pace.

The "Fed did as expected," and its policy statement was "absent of any hawkish statements," said Charles Nedoss, an analyst at Peak Trading Group. As a result, "the Fed was basically a nonevent," he said.

"Most would have thought that gold would decline as the dollar strengthened with rates climbing here in the U.S.," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service.

But gold's after-hours reaction is a "good sign that gold may see more upside in weeks to come," he said.

The market's focus will be on President Bush's State of the Union speech later Wednesday "for any hints of action to stem the U.S.'s ever-widening deficits," said James Moore, analyst at in London.

-----(see url for 24-hr international newswire)-----


Japan '04 gold imports up, investment key this year

Operations resume after strike at SA gold-mine

Union wants Gold Fields retrenchment moratorium

Euro Slides On 70 Year High In German Unemployment

Dollar Ends Mixed as Market Awaits Fed, G-7 Gathering

Make decisions about tomorrow's economy today

Federal Reserve raised interest rates sixth time since last June

TownCrierThe mainstream puts forth a debate of the two new gold ETFs#1287932/2/05; 16:30:58

(Dow Jones)--The recent launch of a couple of exchange-traded
funds (ETFs) that track gold prices could mean more investor interest in the
metal going forward, analysts and traders say.

The first gold-backed fund was streetTRACKS Gold Trust, launched in
November and traded on the New York Stock Exchange. The
iShares Comex Gold Trust was launched Friday. It is traded on the
American Stock Exchange and sponsored by Barclays Global Investors.

Analysts say the new vehicles will allow retirement-type accounts to invest in gold, although
some of their appeal may also be to smaller retail investors.

"I think it makes gold more accessible to the retail or smaller investor,
who is maybe a little less sophisticated and not able to trade the gold
futures," said Todd Scholl, gold equity trader for U.S. Global Investors'
World Precious Minerals Fund and Gold Shares Fund.

"I don't think it will drive demand, but will probably increase the
awareness of gold. More people will know where gold is trading at and what it
is doing. It will maybe help the perception that gold is a real, viable
asset class."

He later added: "The more people out there who view gold as a real asset
and integrated part of any well-balanced diversified portfolio, that's good
for gold."

Nevertheless, he said, if it does influence the demand for the metal, it
will be only by "a little bit."

...Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management, doesn't
anticipate much impact from the ETFs on the gold market, although he added
that that "the jury is out."

Theoretically, it could mean more demand for the metal. "But I'm not sure
that the influence is as much as some people think," he said.

"Does it add to the gross? Yes," he said. "The question is what is the
influence? Certainly it's positive, but it doesn't appear to be horribly
positive. At least that's the history so far. I think it's a really a vehicle
that allows arbitrage between the stocks and futures, more than anything

Kaplan figures the ETF gold shares will mainly attract stock-market type
investors who don't want to trade futures.

George Gero, senior vice president with Legg Mason Wood Walker, was the New
York Mercantile Exchange board member involved with the Barclays ETF project.

He said those most likely to trade ETFs will be investors with pension
funds or mutual funds not allowed to deal in futures.

Dan Vaught, futures analyst with A.G. Edwards, foresees two possible market
impacts of the ETFs.

"It seems like it could increase interest in gold investment because of the
relative ease of the transactions," he said. "It gives a person direct
exposure to the gold market without forcing a person to run into storage
charges that are implicitly built into the price of futures contracts or
explicitly when they actually buy the metal and get charged for storage."

However, he said, there could be potential to detract from some of the
demand for more traditional stocks of mining companies.

In the meantime, market watchers say gold is likely to continue taking its
cue from foreign-exchange movements.

"Right now, what's driving the price of gold is the dollar," said
Scholl. "We see dollar weakness in the future because of the large current-
account and budget deficits that the United States is running. So we see gold
going higher, if not in the short term, then in the long term. We could see
gold traded around $480 around the end of the year."

Said Kaplan: "The gold market is still tied to the dollar, irrevocably. One
of these days, it won't be. But for now, it is."

"One day in the future, gold will start to rally against all currencies.
But that hasn't happened."

^-------(from url)------^

A good question follows for investors who have money under certain investment constraints in pensions that can now be directed toward the name of gold through these ETFs:

If they commit a fraction of their pension funds toward these ETFs, will they as a result then feel sufficiently diversified in the name of gold that they are curbed from further pursuing any actual gold diversification for their portfolio in total?

That seems to be the legitimate concern of some market analysts. If potential physical "main street" demand is shunted into these ETFs instead, the banking community has thereby gained new control in the fulfillment of that potential demand without sqeezing existing street supply and precipitating an upward influence on its price.

The flow of streetTRACKS gold has already been roundly discussed. An informative insight on iShares ETF is that its shares can be issued against not only London Good Delivery gold, but also NYMEX/COMEX standard gold. And to the extent that some of the gold allocated to iShares is residing with ScotiaMocatta or acceptible subcustodians in New York and is of the latter standard (100oz or kilo bar), that gold will be listed not only on the iShares ledgers, but at the same time may be legitimately listed among the COMEX warehouse inventory.

There is definitely an elaborate confidence game underway, and many things you see may be for appearances only. That is to say, they only have presentation value. All show, and no go.

For the real deal, call USAGOLD-Centennial and consult with a broker about a diversification strategy that's right for you.



slingshotDiscovering Another and Friend of Another#1287942/2/05; 17:00:18

I would like to give Cavan Man credit by his post Msg# 128763 that lead to my somewhat unorthedox method of investigating as to whom are Another and Friend of Another. I do NOT want to know the their identity,but understand more about the Persons who have given us Great Insight. My method of investigating was a speed read of the archieves looking for specific words ,paying more attention to the personal response instead of the actions of the market and have come to the conclusion that they are far from DEAD. These Gentlemen/Ladies,are Crusaders of Gold may be in the late years but are well off. Like our Fed Chairman,Greenspan I hope they too may enjoy this post as they sip Brandy by the fire. It is interesting that they started at Kinco only to begin a personal dialog with Sir M.K. and that they continued to unveil vast amount of information of a puzzle that even today is being pieced together. Remarkable for seven years. To state that they are dead is unfounded for they may, as in many occuranes retired or have been taken out of the loop and the information flow stopped. An administration change or TPTB had decided their level information was to be lowered.
"Who am I" asked Another. "As I will not be around for long, so I am noone, but follow me as all of this takes place in your time." I believe he is not talking of death but a cutting off His information. He is not at the top but can see the top and so his resevervation for retaliation is at a low percentage. Injecting personal replies to questions , ( and I love this) "Timing will be nothing,What you are holding will be everything".
I relate this to a movie in which a great computer called Joshua was created by a scienctist and a child hacked into the defence grid. The computer asked, "Do you want to play a game?" Thermo Nuclear War was the childs reply. Another mentions this in his writings. What fitting comparison of Fiat to Gold!We as the child and Another as the computer.
Yet, Another did not know what Cloak and Dagger meant.
My thought he may reside in the USA but another inconsistancy is that he has at times many days between posting and tells us as if it was a business trip. He states he will write from another country so I assume he traveled intenationally. FOA is a GOOD friend of Another and shares his veiws and may well be a travel companion. I think a Lady who has been at Anothers side for many years and in whom he trusts greatly.
I hope that sometime in the future they may reveal themselves. I would gladly settle if they would gives us one more post.

Cavan ManTownCrier#1287952/2/05; 17:22:41

The problem with ten years Randy is, not one of knows if we'll have Another ten minutes.
slingshot10 minutes#1287962/2/05; 17:31:16

Either does TPTB know for sure if they have ten minutes.

MKSlingshot#1287972/2/05; 17:36:49

I will say that their posting codes have never been deactivated and anyone who wants to read more of what you discuss can go to "Gold Trail-Thoughts" at the top of each page here at the castle. To our curious readers, I should say that if you've never read those pages, particularly the early exchanges, you are in for a treat.

Those were heady days back in the late 1990s and I think many of us yearn for their return, but I don't know if we could ever recapture all that. The net was young, and we were breaking through the glass. Many of us had just discovered the internet and began to see its potential as a way to get the word out on gold and combat its enemies on Wall Street and circumvent the mainstream press. We all owe a debt of gratitude to Bart Kitner too for showing us the way. Those of you who have been around since the beginning can recall, wistfully if you like, those days of discovery and Another thundering across our little corner of this vast new world. My first book had just been published when I came across Another, and he knew of my basic understandings on the gold market. Let's just say we were on the same page. (Still are, as far as I know.) He initiated his liason with me by calling a secretary and asking "Is there an e-mail where Mr. Kosares can receive more private mail?" He never announced himself. Asked only the one question, received his answer and hung up. My secretary mentioned the call only several days later after I told her I had received this rather incredible e-mail. I am not sure it was him, but it all kind of fit together. . . .

A good client and friend forwarded this just now from Richard Russell. Tell me if these views do not sound familiar:

"Everybody wants an answer to the question Marc Faber asked on yesterday's site. Namely, what ONE ITEM would you put your money in -- an item not to be touched or changed for the next ten years.

My answer -- Gold coins. Why gold? Because the way things are going, the way the US deficits are growing, the way China and Asia are 'coming on,' I don't see anything that I could truly trust to be 'there' in 2015. The US could be booming, the US could be broke, China could be a Superpower or a basket case. The world might be in peace or it could be in war. Anything could happen and probably will.

But I feel certain of only one thing -- gold will be wealth in 2015. Yes, gold may not be the best investment over the next 10 years, but it I will bet that gold will be there. And it will be considered wealth. In my mind, I can't say that with certainty about anything else.

So it's gold, baby, the time-honored, immutable measure of wealth, the untarnishable yellow metal."

Seems Mr. Russell pretty much sees things the way I do -- and Another as well.

TownCrierWhether ten years or ten minutes...#1287982/2/05; 17:58:10

"The bottom line is that we are each unique individuals, with unique timelines based on age and income potential and past accumulated wealth. We must each therefore attempt to fairly evaluate our own situation and sense of personal immediacy as to how it might be ultimatley impacted or enhanced by the generational trend unfolding in the macro international environment."

Happy is he who has only ten minutes, for he no longer has need to worry about how best to preserve his wealth through time, or take care for himself through another day. Am I right?

But when optimism sees a long life or an uncertain life ahead, it usually calls for some gold.


slingshotSir M.K#1287992/2/05; 18:00:58

Imagine one more post by Another, with one simple word!
All that we have read. All that we have studied. All that has been shown to us would be as all the forces of nature combined into one force.

Another/Joshua. "Would you like to play a game" "How about a game of chess"

Cavan ManTownCrier#1288002/2/05; 18:20:06

Yes Randy, you are right. The absolute bedrock of anyone's investments should be physical gold. There is no substitute.
TownCrierMK, "... their posting codes have never been deactivated"#1288012/2/05; 18:38:57

A correction, if I may.

At some time after 'The Gold Trail' was up and running, FOA requested that I deactivate the Forum posting codes for both himself and for ANOTHER. I assume it is because he didn't want to worry that someone could either guess the passwords or find them scribbled on a piece of paper and subsequently wreak havoc by posting garbage under their handles.

The only reason I troubled to bring this up is that I wouldn't want him to read your comment and mistakenly think that I failed him in honoring his request. It was honored.

However, their codes remain active at the 'Trail', and should they request new passwords for the main Forum, that request, of course, can be easily accommodated at any time.


MKRandy,#1288022/2/05; 19:00:44

Then let me put it another way. If either/or contacted us to receive a new code, it would take all of 30 seconds for us to get it to them.
MKState of the Union#1288032/2/05; 19:17:21

Back in the 1970s there was a maxim:

"The gold market goes down before the President speaks, it goes up after he speaks."

The last time he did this, I went away thinking "Who's going to pay for all this?" We will see what happens tonight and over the next several days. I wish our president well. There are many things I appreciate about him; many things I question. I wish a vote actually equated to Democracy. I wish we could talk down the deficit. I wish we could provide an easy life for all. The proof IN ALL RESPECTs will be in the pudding, and I'll always, go back to the philosophy of Ronald Reagan. It is not the government's job to provide all this. It's up to each and every one of us -- individually and collectively where need be.

Gandalf, I ask you:

Please warm-up that crystal ball. Is it time for a contest?

Mr. BillAnother Another ….#1288042/2/05; 19:33:27

There seems to be a lot of confusion in regards to Another and FOA. They were not joined at the hip. The messages that they gave were like day and night. Another was a goldbug. FOA was a paper pusher.

Another might be looked at as an escapee. One who left the fold and told a story of the glory of gold. FOA was brought in for damage control. His purpose was to bring the sheep back into the fiat fold. And his message was the Euro.

FOA was a spin-doctor. For this he got his Sir. Just like
Greenspan, he was rewarded with near royalty, for managing the herd.

But Another was the one that came close to describing where its at. May his sole rest in peace.

da2gCome on, Trail Guide, I'm starting to feel the rain!#1288052/2/05; 20:05:30

I am going to travel for a while and watch the trail from a distance. It won't be long before the rains come and the ground begins to open; in that time I will return. Until then; this farmer will rest from this work.

Thank you USAGOLD and all the fine people that make this media the best gold site in the world! Another time, we WILL hike again.

Sir Douglas
Your Trail Guide

Black BladeGold Firmer#1288062/2/05; 20:46:46;siteid=mktw


The "Fed did as expected," and its policy statement was "absent of any hawkish statements," said Charles Nedoss, an analyst at Peak Trading Group. As a result, "the Fed was basically a nonevent," he said. Nedoss said that with this weekend's Group of Seven meeting on tap, investors aren't likely to "aggressively" buy dollars.

"Most would have thought that gold would decline as the dollar strengthened with rates climbing here in the U.S.," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service. But gold's after-hours reaction is a "good sign that gold may see more upside in weeks to come," he said.

The market's focus will be on Bush's speech "for any hints of action to stem the U.S.'s ever-widening deficits," James Moore, analyst at in London.

And Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities, pointed out that Friday's "all-important January employment report could certainly bring an increase in volatility."

Traders also continued to eye moves in the dollar, and if the greenback "holds the recent lows made in mid-January and rallies, then gold and silver will eventually break down and make new yearly lows," he said. See Currencies.

Black Blade: Just in a "holding pattern" at the moment. The fundamentals remain rather positive for the precious metals and in that light nothing has really changed. Meanwhile accumulation ahead of any fireworks is a prudent course of action for now.

Gandalf the WhiteWHAT ???? <;-)#1288072/2/05; 20:48:40

Did my eyes see what I think they saw?

Gandalf the WhiteSIR MK's QUSESTION ---#1288082/2/05; 20:55:27

I shall have to consult my CRYSTAL BALL as to the ADEQUATE timing of the NEXT POG guessing CONTEST ---
Hint -- It will be SOON !

YGMGandalf,,,,#1288092/2/05; 22:10:58

Is that a light in yonder forest?
TownCrierMr. Bill, on ANOTHER vs. FOA's thoughts#1288112/3/05; 00:11:19

In my estimation, FOA was definitely not a paper pusher as you've tried to characterize him.

It is certainly true enough that the paper euro featured prominently in his many presentations. There was simply no getting around that papery focal point in the course of these discussions because the euro, as FOA endeavored to explain it, was the policy mechanism through which ANOTHER's Thoughts would play out (implementation) on a large public scale.

Just a thought.


TownCrierFollowing is a snapshot of policymakers' recent comments in the run-up to the G7 London meeting on Feb. 4-5.#1288122/3/05; 00:56:41

LONDON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - excerpts

"We must continue to make the right long-term choices about stability and growth..."

Referring to principles G7 laid out at its Boca Raton, Florida meeting one year ago, Taylor told reporters: "One of them is let fundamentals (operate) in exchange markets.

"The statement is out there and that's what they want to continue with."

"Resolving the (U.S. current account) deficit just with currencies would be impossible."

"Not being able to move its (China's) currency could pose various obstacles in the future," the official said. "(China) needs to make (the yuan) flexible again soon, though it should do it in a manner that is in its best interests."

"Pressure on China never helps."

"The Chinese aren't going to change their peg to the dollar overnight," the source said. "What people are looking for is a controlled and gradual change. Nobody wants sudden changes."

"The world economic imbalance is attributable to many reasons, but not the exchange rate.
"China has not the capacity to address that so-called imbalance. We are not willing to do it, and we are not able to do it."


"The U.S. twin deficits are a problem for the global economy."

"The imbalances must be reduced but not via abrupt decisions. ...In the long term, the U.S. government as well as households cannot take on foreign debt to the extent they are doing today. ... The only thing that can help is concerted action with everyone taking part."

^-------(from url)-------^

Change is brewing. Choose gold as your financial safe haven against an uncertain future.


BelgianChange is brewing....! Of course it is.#1288132/3/05; 03:26:56

The dilemma : Let the "fundamental" market forces work freely or more and broader (firmer-more blatant) "intervention"...regulation...unilateral or multilateral (in concert) !?
Sort of a "to be or not to be" rhetorical question.
Time after time, the same conclusion : A free market economy AND an interventionist economy, don't work satisfactory anymore for a "broad" (broadening) majority. See TC's pré-G7 overview.
The main factions on this planet go on blaiming each other's policies (mixtures of policies). An explosive state of status quo (immobilism).

Where ever one is or whatever one does...this is the one and only big growing picture that must be seen !
Germany has a record 5 million unemployed people !!! The Lissabon accords cannot be implemented and this is adding gist to the fermentation-process. Something has to, ...will snap.

A "NEW" mixture of free market economy and intervention will come out of this mess. This debt-driven political economy will lose its former "concertation" cement. W're (the building new factions) gone have fundamental differences of opinion (and actions) on the debt-problem, currencies, economic stability/growth, geopolitical positioning (block-formations).

Gold, fits perfectly in the above observation on free market and intervention mixture. That's why MK has it 100% right when stating that goldmetal in possession is the one and only tangible that one should hold...NOW... for walking through the next decade, and most probably, much longer.

It all boils down to a simple conclusion : Currency and its debt, shall not be taken as "serious" anymore when "Gold-Wealth" can (and shall) be re-instated, seriously and not symbolicly !!! In other words...only the soft goldmetal will be taken as "hard". This will bring the needed "change". That's what's brewing !

And Mr. Bill, it will (is) the euro-concept...and not the dollar or the eskimos... that has already architected this brewing mixture. It is "this" particular aspect (idea) that FOA has been presenting in his thoughts.
When the "global" economy is getting stuck, w're all left with only two options : Increase the fighting (nicely painted as competition) or agree on and implement the most apropiate (wise)solution...change...suitable for all !

The distruction of real universal wealth and having it replaced with virtual wealth is a dead end street ! It is exactly with the content (exact meaning) of the word "wealth" that many individuals are struggling with in these modern times. So is the globalizing economy also increasingly struggling with the question of final consolidation of economic activity (sweat). Simply because universal gold-wealth is empowering the individual and in competition with the exploiting conglomerates...constantly raping (abusing) the notion of (their) democracy. That's exactly WHY gold is a political metal. FreeGold is too much of freedom for too many people. A stagnant global economy must go back to much more real freedom in order to survive and evolve in prosperity. Yes, I wellcome the questioning of what freedom is...should be.

CopperfieldWellink#1288142/3/05; 05:28:52

Heard this from a reliable source: Nout Wellink, president Dutch CB, stated off the record: Central banks must lie about interest rates and gold. He also stated that this monetary system one day will implode..
BelgianECB#1288152/3/05; 06:10:10

ECB leaves rates on hold 2%, probably up until the end of '05. Let's watch how the €-$ exchange rate is affected and if the effect continues after G-7.
Maybe Trichet (14h30) gives us a clue to justify the ECB's decision (on easy money policy !).
Note, that the € is stronger against the yen (Asia). The dollar wishes to divert Asian export to eurozone...called putting the burden on the EU and giving some relief to the dollar. What a gigantic play...or passing the hot/hotter patato from hand to hand .

BelgianEXACTLY !!! Copperfield#1288162/3/05; 06:32:27

You should see the smile on my face now ! Indeed Sir, >>> "MUST" lie...
Everything in exactly two lines...said by ...a dutchman (?) Magic. Don't disappear Copperfield.

The CoinGuyAre Commodity Prices Headed for Switch to Euros?:#1288172/3/05; 08:26:18


Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Oil, metals and even aircraft may one day be priced in euros, not dollars. Dream on?

As the dollar stays weak on foreign-exchange markets, with little sign of a sustained recovery, there is speculation that at some point commodity prices will drop the U.S. currency. If that happens, it would herald a wider realignment of the global financial system -- and would indicate that the dollar's reign as the world's reserve currency was coming to a close.

It is too early to conclude the dollar is finished. Yet the challenge is real and growing. The world may well be set for a period during which the dollar and the euro compete for reserve status -- hardly a promising situation for global stability.

GoldiloxDX#1288182/3/05; 08:32:20

Another run on 84 exhibiting a topping pattern?
Belgian@ All : one single question#1288192/3/05; 08:57:49

What will happen with the dollar and its antagonist, gold, in case that military force is used against Iran (Syria) ?
YGMBelgian (2/3/05; 08:57:49MT - msg#: 128819)#1288202/3/05; 09:04:06

IMNSHO....China will lead the charge of certain Nations dumpimg US Dollars/Treasuries and Gold will soar past the $500.00 mark in a matter of days, and the Dow & Duck will dump to the levels they belong or lower...Ken
spikedogBelgian post# 128819#1288212/3/05; 09:11:04

I believe either or both of these actions will be the straw that broke the camels (dollar's?) back and will subsequently release gold from it's $-enslavement. Reasoning: the world is barely tolerating US projection of force as it is. And the few countries that are helping to prop up the $ will not see fit to funding another front in the war on "terrorism". Something's gotta give!
Druid@Belgian#1288222/3/05; 09:24:43

Druid: Your question scares me because I think that Iran could be a flashpoint both militarily/politically/financially and economiclly speaking where there might be no turning back.
Gandalf the WhiteYES ! YES ! YES ! Sir Goldilox !!! <;-)#1288232/3/05; 09:47:03

Goldilox (2/3/05; 08:32:20MT - msg#: 128818)
Another run on 84 exhibiting a topping pattern?
THANKS Sir Goldilox, this MAY be the one for which I have been waiting !!! We shall see SOON !

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.These are from 100 to nearly 200 years old, and their value is still holding strong. Choose gold.#1288242/3/05; 10:04:57">gold 20 franc coins
CoBra(too)@ Belgian#1288252/3/05; 10:06:23

I sure do owe you an answer, which will come eventually.

Meantime you've asked a very valid question concerning any further, whatcha may we call it, democratizing the ME? Who knows, as the real question should be something like democratizing Saudi Arabia; After all there is the most of the oil and it's still a feudal system. Well, that is something the US should be able to understand by now as their big government is more taxing than any feudal system in history.

I'm getting more concerned about the US's immediate neighbours doing more resource deals with China, India et al that even their peers are starting to sweat now.

... But to answer your question from an historical point of view - the Shah of Iran was supported by the CIA. After the Mullah's took over the same gang backed Saddam Hussein ... and on and on goes the saga of idiotic policies ... choose the CIA, the foreign affairs or the White House!

In the final analysis any attack on Iran will have repercussions of a magnitude the US will be totally help- and hapless to meet.

Insofar, the State of the Union Address was something related to declaration of War to most parts of the rest of the globe - IHMO!

A war, which won't be tolerated in any financial"sense" for much longer.

In that case - Got Gold - is a very valid assumption.

RimhYes, Yes Indeed, Sir Gandalf!!!#1288262/3/05; 10:37:56

The time has arrived! The last bounce off 84.1 (barely made 84.2 but retreated..). Just a small measure of patience to be sure it does not puncture that line in late day trade and we shall be on our way. With gold beat down by TPTB this morn' this appears to be possibly the last great buying opportunity at these levels. I assume you have the Roo meat ready and waiting for 'the dogs', Gandalf? Or as the WWF announcer used to say:


BelgianQuestion#1288282/3/05; 10:44:42

Is it a coincidence that Bloomberg produces an article on commodities in euro (Coin Guy) and the increasing probability of military force against Iran. The more that there is (produced) triomphalism on the Irak + Palestine elections ?
Will/can Saudi Arabia (oil CB) or any other oilproducer, make up for the eventual outfall of Iranian oil in case of hostilities ?
Has anyone seen R.Perle's statements on Syria, right after the Iraqi election outcome was known ?

The EU will definitely go for nuclear energy, following France's lead with 70% of its electricity produced with nuclear reactors. Does this (brewing) change tells us something ?

BulldogBelgian : question on further invasions#1288292/3/05; 10:48:31

I did a search on google about U.S. army deserters. From 1996 to 2001, 18,000 deserted from U.S. forces. Since the war in Iraq, a further 5,500 have deserted and most recently, the Pentagon has decided to invite all deserters back to their units without disciplinary action. Over 1,300 young american soldiers have been killed and many more wounded in Iraq.
What would be the reasons given by the Administration to invade any other M.E. countries? The ROW knows that there was no valid reason for attacking Iraq and the ROW has not lined up to assist the U.S. in that endeavour. Iran has received huge infusions of capital, primarily from Russia and China to develop their oilfields.

I have always believed that the ROW will eventually stop supporting U.S. debt and I believe we are very close to that now.
As a neighbour to the U.S. the people of North America have a lot in common, but the U.S. gov't is way offside on their military actions.

adminPolitical Discussion#1288302/3/05; 10:49:00

We want to thank all of you who took the time to post the thoughtful comments on whether or not we should open the forum to political discussion. We have come up with the following format change to be launched this Friday at Noon Forum Standard Time (FST) on an experimental basis:

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adminClarification#1288312/3/05; 10:51:54

That should read "each" Friday through Sunday noon (FST). This, of course, does not preclude regular postings on the subject of gold as the poster sees fit.
Buongiorno!Sir Belgian's good question#1288322/3/05; 10:54:04

Depends upon what you mean by military action. A surgical air strike such as Isriel used against Iraq, or our bombing of Yugoslavia on behalf of the UN and NATO, probably little effect on the dollar or gold past a few days.

"Ah!" You say, "This is different!" Yes, but still think it would blow over.

If you mean special forces inserted--that is probably underway for some time now, and no great effect unless someone really important somehow gets whacked.

Just do not see a major military action against Syria or Iran, but that WOULD be about the time we see the cheese sort of slip off the cracker! Dollar, if not already down, would be--gold, if not already up, would be.

Think we shall be just fine, anyway, as "Dollar Don Quixote" crawls out of bed for one last song. "Trade deficit of $60 BB, budget deficit huge--To dream the impossible dream!"

Goldilox"Surgical" strike#1288332/3/05; 11:44:40

In response to Bongiorno's suggestion that a careful surgical strike similar to the destruction of Iraq's nuclear reactor might not act as the same catalyst as general invasion.

In distinct military terms, this is probably true. However, political tensions are quite elevated from that previous level in the ME today, and the ability to politically contain such an action may be severely limited by this level of tension.

It is pehaps not the action that will determine the "criticality" of such an event, but its potential catalytic effects.

With the US$ and gold in such tight holding patterns, I personally believe they are much more vulnerable to lesser stimuli.

Perhaps this seems on the surface less important than Sinclair's warning about "one drop of Saudi oil burning", but catalysts being what they are, any event that "inspires" retaliation could make things get more ugly in a hurry.

In addition, the longer gold remains in this "holding pattern" the greater for the potential for reactivity.

geBelgian msg#: 128819#1288342/3/05; 11:50:12

If military force is used against Iran (Syria), I do not think gold would move much. The present situation resembles Napoleon's Invasion of Russia in 1812. This is a war of attrition in Russian winter.

Although the US army is currently saturated at Iraq and Afghanistan, the Navy and the Air Force remains largely intact. The opponents would not confront this force directly, but retreat into winter.

I believe, gold move would come at the tail end, when all is said and done.

GoldiloxGold Equities and POG#1288352/3/05; 12:07:55

It is interesting to note that in today's action, gold and silver equities are taking a much stronger hit than the metals themselves.

The question this raises is, of course, what does this portend?

A stronger reaction when gold resume its strength, or a harbinger of more pressure on the equities?

I don't pretend to know the answer, but it's worth watching the action.

melda laure(No Subject)#1288362/3/05; 13:15:20

Yes, an interesting day. On a side note, I sometimes check the web site of an oregon dealer. I've noticed that the total spread on sovereign coins is in the $31 range, and for 1 oz kruggerands it is almost $14. The real oddity is in 1 oz US Eagles. At spot of 417.50, the Bid price is 425 and ask is 438.

I dont recall having seen a bid price so high above spot on any 1 oz product before. I dont know what to make of the sovereign prices either (they work out to about $435 and $404), perhaps somebody forgot to update the price information, or perhaps there is some other non-market driven excuse.

Comments? Maybe I should've checked the silver prices too?

TownCrierSnow calls in sick -- G7 absence pushes FX deal further from agenda#1288372/3/05; 13:35:17

LONDON, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Prospects for a new global accord on currency management at this weekend's Group of Seven financial summit in London appeared even more remote on Thursday after U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow called in sick.

Officials have already said that the G7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs are likely to repeat a year-old appeal for less volatile currency markets and more flexible exchange rate regimes when they meet over the next two days.

But no major new initiatives are expected to be announced to help achieve these goals. With Snow unable to attend with a cold, the chances of any breakthrough seem even less likely.

^--------(from url)-------^

Not that this one meeting was necessarily poised to be THE watershed event, but in any case it strikes me as highly unlikely that the mere presence or absence of a single political appointee (who's held the job for only a couple dozen months) can affect whether or not the wheels of the whole wide world will continue to move down their momentum-driven path.

Be a responsible custodian of your net worth. Diversify. Call USAGOLD-Centennial for consultation and exceptional prices on gold coins and bullion.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1288382/3/05; 14:04:12">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Thrusday market excerpts

A combination of factors caused gold futures to break down through the bottom end of their recent range and settle with sharp losses on Thursday, traders and analysts said.

Some of the pressure was tied to remarks from U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, who said a deal could be struck in the next few weeks to sell or revalue International Monetary Fund gold reserves in order to provide debt relief to poor countries.

Brown made his remarks about IMF gold in parliament ahead of a two-day meeting of Group of Seven finance ministers starting Friday in London.

He said he hopes the G7 would agree on the sale or revaluation of IMF gold ahead of the IMF's next meeting in Washington in April.

Meanwhile, in a question-and-answer session after the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, officials said they did not discuss the IMF gold-sale proposal.

A stronger tone in the U.S. dollar added to the metal's weakness, traders said. The selling accelerated on technical factors as the market broke down through its previous low for the year. April gold settled with a loss of $4.50 to $418.50.

Some liquidation had been occurring lately, and the day's events prompted more of it, related John Tyree, trader and analyst with Rosenthal Collins Group. He noted that open interest has dropped more than 100,000 lots since the high of a few months ago. Back then, the April futures had peaked at $460.50.

-----(see url for 24-hr newswire, market prices)-----

Black BladePrevious - Daily Market Report#1288392/3/05; 14:19:20


A combination of factors caused gold futures to break down through the bottom end of their recent range and settle with sharp losses on Thursday, traders and analysts said. Some of the pressure was tied to remarks from U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, who said a deal could be struck in the next few weeks to sell or revalue International Monetary Fund gold reserves in order to provide debt relief to poor countries.

Black Blade: This is a repeat of the IMF Gold revaluation scheme allowing countries such as Mexico to "borrow" against their Gold held in trust by the Fund. It is quite amusing however, that the novice traders took this as a proposed Gold sale. The effects os a "sale" would actually hurt the very countries (mostly Gold producers) that it is intended to help. The likely outcome (if any) is a revaluation for borrowing purposes. Of course any "sale" would be just another shell game of shuffled digits with very little (if any) actual Gold entering the open market - much like the hoopla over central bank sales. Yet it is interesting how "weak hands" are so easily shaken. ;-)

TownCrierOf gold and taxes -- worthy of deep discussion#1288402/3/05; 14:22:48

Published in Cairo by AL-AHRAM (3-9 February 2005) -- The latest amendment to the sales tax law has triggered a long-standing dispute between the Sales Tax Authority and gold traders.

A heated debate at a recent People's Assembly budget and planning committee meeting ended without any of the disputed issues being resolved...

Gold manufacturer Maher Messiha said for manufacturers, gold is capital, not profit. "It is ridiculous to continuously impose sales tax on our main tool for production."

According to the Sales Tax Authority's Omar, gold traders were "advocating a lost cause. When a kilogramme of flour is manufactured into biscuits, it is taxed in the same way a kilogramme of gold is manufactured into different gold items."

Gold traders said the authority's analysis conveniently overlooked the fact that biscuits are consumed while gold is not; that discrepancy has also been at the heart of the distrust, misunderstanding, and lack of transparency between the two sides since sales tax on gold was first imposed in 1991.

Gold Division head Rafiq El-Abbasi said the traders were making a point. "Gold traders have made it clear to officials more than once that the sales tax in its present form has caused incalculable disturbance to a market that was once stable, healthy and growing."

Gold is not a disposable material, he said, "as it is used as a form of currency, and by some people as a form of savings".

A kilo of gold, he said, may change hands three times in one year. "Is it fair, or rather constitutional, to repeatedly impose a five per cent sales tax on the same sum of gold?"

.....Gold traders continued to insist that the law's deficiencies would continue to inspire an atmosphere of fraud. What seems abundantly clear is that neither party is really listening to the other at all.

^------(from url)------^

By contrast to the currency/investment line seen in Egypt, there is no VAT on gold investment in Euroland. Mere accident? You can be sure the answer is no. At its core, one could say the EU regime is supportive, and gold is being subtly "positioned", accorded this very special treatment. The answer of what that may be can be found on 'The Gold Trail'.


Black BladeIllnesses cause half of personal bankruptcies #1288412/3/05; 14:28:07


BOSTON -- Costly illnesses trigger about half of all personal bankruptcies, and most of those who go bankrupt because of medical problems have health insurance, according to findings from a Harvard University study to be released today.

Black Blade: Another reason to your financial house in order. Should the bread winner in your family become incapacitated are you prepared? As always, get prepared, get outta debt and stay outta debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months household expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver "portfolio insurance", and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities - just for such an unforeseen event as illness or injury. In other words - Just use "common sense".

BelgianG-7 Forex deals ?#1288422/3/05; 14:48:02

Trichet said nothing new and on the forex front nothing fundamental is changing. The existing major trends will simply continue.
The rising tensions (threats) in the ME don't result in a flight into the dollar anymore, because of the existance of the euro. The question remains... which aspect of the dollar will be affected : Its reserve status ?...its exchange rate ?...its political status ?...all 3 aspects together ?

Trichet emphasized again his vigilance about the €-POO. Thus the POO is indeed affecting monetary policy...resulting in intervention on the exchange rate, probably with intervention on the POG as one of the tools.

Will an action on Iran result in less monetary concertation, globally ? The ECB left its rates on 2% and seemed to be rather confident that the IR differentional with the dollar would not affect the exchange rates (€-$) substantionally (carry trades-?). Significant !?

Do we see evidence here of currencies (and economies) all going their own being planned already, whatever the (shocking) events !?

Have the G-x meetings become a meaningless (insignificant) routine ? Are wars and the cost of these wars not affecting the already lost dollar anymore ? Does this mean that freegold is already a theoretical given ?
How can one possibly believe that the dollar deficit will be halved within a half decade, when nothing concrete is suggested as to "how" this might happen ? Both, EU and US see the enormous problem of social security, AGAIN...and none can possibly fix it ! What are monetary policies going to change on this unsolvable major problem ? In the mean time, more debt piles up faster and faster with the rising tensions. Freedom and democratization are a very costly affair. Can the dollar (or other currencies) afford such ambitious enterprises ?

Will a conflict with Iran only be another catalyst or the final straw that makes our international financial system collapse ? For how long can things remain relatively orderly ?

BelgianIMF-gold-Gordon Brown#1288432/3/05; 15:41:02

Isn't it extremely cynical, having old Mandela coming down to London and ask (beg) for help...and on his arrival, he gets a lower POG as a starter !? IMF "revalues" its gold and Mandela (Africa) gets a "lower" price for his gold.
There is so very much behind all this...that is unfortunately not allowed to be said in public...or risk to be stoned.

@ TC : Nice to hear that the Egyptians also realize that no tax should be imposed on bullion (trade). Once gold has been transformed into jewelry (being industrialized), value (craftmanship) has been added and a value added tax on the work (not the metal) is absolutely normal.
When one exchanges cash from hand to hand, there is no tax either. In Euroland gold bullion changes hands with no tax. There is only a buy and a sell price.
Egyptian bullion traders give evidence that they still know very well what gold exactly means despite the bastardization of the metal by their government.

When governments do see that their citizens start increasingly trading bullion (under whatever form)...they get pissed. Imagine a significant rise in pure barter trade the Argentinian way...The controllers lose their all embracing "taxing power" ! Just like Antwerp might very probable lose its long tradition of diamont trade to taxfree Dubai where a giant diamont tower has been build, close to the taxfree goldmarkets.

When governments increasingly lose their taxing power, for whatever reason, they have to stop their re-distribution of their own printed confetti. And then we land in the "what is wealth" debate. The wealth of the ruling conglomerates lies in their monopolistic privilege of permanent exploitation of the masses. As long as their system works, not much will change fundamentally. But the fact that the POG remains hyper freezed, tells me that gold is threathening the controllers. Euroland gives evidence that it is thinking differently (than the dollar) about gold's future and its controlling status. That is as deep as I can get.

GoldendomeBelgian--Why should China have only one meal when it can consume several?#1288442/3/05; 17:49:21

There's no wonder to why the EU interest rate remains at 2% or whatever. Just look at what was reported in the German economy yesterday.

Snipped from a Bloomberg report:

The number of people out of work in January rose by 227,000 to 4.71 million in seasonally adjusted terms, including 230,000 new jobless claimants, the Nuremberg-based Federal Labor Agency said today. The adjusted unemployment rate rose to 11.4 percent, a seven-year high, while the unadjusted jobless total passed 5 million for the first time since the war.

It seems clear that things on the old continent are not moving ahead smoothly in economic terms. European growth last year was what? 2%?

And I'm not here to Europe bash; it is clear (to me anyway) that China is in the process of beginning to clean the Euro clock's as well as the American clock's!

Will China change interest to Europe from the U.s. now that the Euro has appreciated so markedly in the past couple of years? We can doubt it. China is a shark amidst a school of lesser fish; eating left or right where ever it be pleased. China is an equal opportunity opportunist.

Who's that Chinese bank minister? Le Sin? But who-ever, he recently stated that the U.S. problems are not their problems. Well, duh!! The Chinese still have 50,000,000 people to put to work! I doubt they care if the dollar falls to 10; they'll still be making stuff for 5cents an hour to ship over here. Point is: We can't devalue the dollar enough to make a difference to China, and neither can Europe; (though at this time they're on the other end of the teeter-totter.)

Here in the Wal-Mart nation, our only alternative is to just keep feeding them dollars, until they blowup!!! Kind of like that shark from the old "Jaws" movie, that was eating everything in sight, until he finally swallowed that oxygen tank. Whoa! what an explosion!

Poor old Belgian--we all seem to be living in the land of the free and the homes of the screwed, as soon the only jobs may be in government, financial paper, and general service sector. If you move to make anything--some
a---ole, from somewhere's going to copy it, and send it back to you at half of what you can produce it for, no matter how much you cut costs.

OvSChina hungry?#1288452/3/05; 18:37:46

You bet. They have over a 1,000,000
computer engineer graduates looking
for a job.

TownCrierBrown and the IMF gold, not likely to be even an ounce hitting the market for "us"#1288462/3/05; 19:13:09


The previous time Gordon Brown seriously agitated for IMF sales (under the banner of HIPC debt relief) was in the early spring of the eventful year of 1999.

When IMF sales were not forthcoming, as a bolt from the blue suddenly the UK itself announced that summer that it would be a gold seller. I don't recall that a direct correlation was trumpeted at that time between those sales and debt relief, so I was always left with a suspicion that a lifeboat operation was more than likely the hushed motivation behind it all.

(Those few prestigious institutions of the City are, after all, about the only banking group these days that are still vulnerable to an actual bank run. Dealing in bullion, they are unlike commercial banks in the sense that they do not have recourse to an inexhaustible lender of last resort, and must go begging for any manner of help such as they may find it in times of shortage.)

As those surprise UK sales swept the gold market to 20 year lows, it was significant to see the European central banks rally together and respond quickly with their market-supportive Agreement by the end of summertime.

Interestingly, by the end of the year the IMF finally gave a nod to Brown's earlier notion of debt relief, but they did it through off-market gold revaluations, thus setting a bit of precedent and keeping the book closed on actual sales that would draw down IMF physical reserves.

With Brown now agitating again under the banner of debt relief for IMF gold sales (or revaluations) these six years later, one has to wonder is he truly the world's leading humanitarian, or is there another angle?

If debt relief is the legitimate reason for the clamor, precedent calls for revaluation to be the more likely alternative put into effect.

But in my assessment of the less likely event that sales of IMF gold stock are selected by the 85 percent voting power majority of members, I would tend to interpret that as a sign that various of the IMF members (France, Germany, others?) are simply wanting their gold back (as seen in the mechanism of the restitution precedent of the late 1970s).

Having sold a fair amount of HM Treasury gold, maybe the UK itself figures prominently among them -- most especially if the Bank of England anticipates that any future lifeboat operations may be necessary as the LBMA's business heads toward mothballs, witnessed as ever-shrinking clearing volumes over the past eight years.

Viewed from that angle, the two new gold ETFs introduced on the New York and American stock exchanges can probably be most properly perceived as another device in a long train of them devised to preserve institutional liquidity as they are always uniquely vulnerable to actual demands for physical deposits and the resulting insolvency.

Do you sense that there is anything to this? Meaning, gold will stay, one way or another, in official hands, whereas the reason for making all the public comments is to serve a temporary political purpose.


MKBelgian. . .Gold & the Brits#1288472/3/05; 19:25:56

I don't completely understand this obsession Gordon Brown has with the IMF gold. I'm sorry, but I don't believe for a minute that the Chancellor of the Exchequer is motivated by the stench of third world debt. I think we all remember that the last time Gordon Brown stumped for IMF sales, he failed. The IMF opted for revaluation. The result was that the Bank of England let go of a good portion of the British peoples' gold reserve. Now he's at it again.

What is really behind all this volley and thunder?

In my view, Brown's activity now signals the same thing it signalled in 1999 -- the beginnings of a major move upward in the gold price. I would consider one of three scenarios:

1. One or more bullion banks are in trouble in Londontown and gold must be found for the British government and central bank to fulfill the lender of last resort function (Brown is simply trying to get ahead of the curve.), or

2. This is just another campaign (ala the Andy Smith scenario) in a larger war to keep the bullion banks supplied with enough metal to satisfy the needs of the huge gold carry trade (which goes on longer than I ever anticipated it would) and keeping it from going bankrupt, or

3. A combination of both one and two, in which case Brown sees himself as killing two birds with one stone.

Brown's hope is that he can steamroll sales. The talk about revaluation is just camouflage. The Bank of England sales were directed inventory placements -- not sales but a bailout camouflaged as a sale.

In a long talk with our Sitemaster this afternoon on this subject, he pointed out to me that other members of the IMF might be very happy to receive their gold back in a revaluation/sales scheme, not thinking it of great use to them at the IMF. Others might get it back and want to sell. What Brown is hoping for, in his view, is sales. As for the LBMA, I would not be surprised to find out at some point along the way, that this was nothing more than a machination to free up gold to meet the demand requirements being faced by the bullion banks.

In other words, I'm going with number three.

This is not meant to be a comprehensive analysis of the Gordon Brown recurring obsession with the IMF gold, but simply some groundwork to encourage further discussion.

At this juncture, I would like to reprint a brilliant statement from UK's Sir Henry Tapsell which I have posted here before as well as in our newsletters and in The ABCs of Gold Investing:

"The whole point about gold, and the quality that makes it so special and almost mystical in its appeal, is that it is universal, eternal and almost indestructible. The Minister will agree that it is also beautiful. The most enduring brand slogan of all time is, 'As good as gold.' The scientists can clone sheep, and may soon be able to clone humans, but they are still a long way from being able to clone gold, although they have been trying to do so for 10,000 years. The Chancellor may think that he has discovered a new Labour version of the alchemist's stone, but his dollars, yen and euros will not always glitter in a storm and they will never be mistaken for gold."

Tapsell made that statement in 1999, just before the Bank of England let go of the British gold at cyclically low prices ($250 to $300). My question is what happens if Brown runs into a wall this time around? What if the verdict is no sales, no revaluation. Then where will the price of gold go??

By the way the Chancellor Tapsell refers to above is Gordon Brown!

The Invisible HandBank of England, said you - Or is it Her Majesty's Treasury?#1288482/3/05; 19:52:42,,2-1469989,00.html

February 04, 2005

Cover-up row over £27 billion secret of Black Wednesday
By Philip Webster, Political Editor

HIGHLY sensitive Treasury papers on the events leading to Black Wednesday in 1992 are being kept secret at the request of John Major and Lord Lamont of Lerwick, Prime Minister and Chancellor at the time, The Times has learnt.
Senior Treasury officials are furious that the documents, which should have been published under the Freedom of Information Act on Tuesday, are being held back, apparently on the orders of Sir Andrew Turnbull, the Cabinet Secretary, to give Mr Major and Lord Lamont more time to study them.

MKInvisible Hand, request of Chris Powell#1288502/3/05; 20:14:33

During the 1999 episode, I did not hear Eddie George howl in pain at the suggestion of BOE sales. I heard talk instead of peering "into the abyss."

There is also another quote that showed up in the Embry report about Merrill Lynch's Ted Arnold publicly asking for a bailout -- saying something to the effect that the authorities needed to do something about the rising gold price. I can't put a year on that out of memory, but it suggests what I would call "institutional thinking", or at least the presentiment that those in the private sector felt they "could" show-up at Threadneedle Street with their hands out. To me, it almost came off as a threat of the same.

Chris, do you have those quotes handy? I think it would be good for our readers to read them in this context.

I know what you are trying to say, Invisible Hand, but I think there may be somewhat of a seamless relationship between Her Majesty's Treasury and the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street.

Black BladePoor Ole Gordie Brown - Still A Failure#1288512/3/05; 21:36:05

Gordie Brown is not exactly the brightest bulb on the English Isle. It was he who orchestrated the BOE Gold Auction disaster that resulted in huge losses and a misappropriation of the British peoples Gold. These so-called auctions (actually "give aways") occurred when the price of Gold was at its lowest and now the enormity of the losses are being realized. Of course a politician, even a simpleton like Gordie, does not worry about being held accountable simply because they count on the short memories of the masses. It was a few years ago after the BOE Gold Auction disaster that Gordie Brown said that he was going to resign - obviously he lied - but then is that really surprising for someone, especially a politician, with absolutely no honor or self respect? Hmmm...

- Black Blade

GoldiloxGordie Brown#1288522/3/05; 23:13:40

Now, now, BB

Your last line says it all. Brown very likely lacks honor and self-respect. That doesn't mean he is without brains. It is rather more suggestive of which loyalties his brainpower serves.

Gordon's gold sale obviously hurt the British people and government, but the correct question is, "Who benefited?"

Contrary to the platitude that so often passes the lips of the most likely conspirators, I suggest one should not rush to attribute to stupidity that which can so easily be rationalized by high level corruption and greed.

Gandalf the WhiteLook at this GOLD P&F Chart, and you will see a CONTEST note ! <;-) #1288532/3/05; 23:25:46$GOLD,PWTBDANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

THAT there are now a Million and TWO (1,000,002) reasons why GOLD will soon head "TO THE MOON, Alice" !!!
AND that is why that the latest POG (price of gold) guessing CONTEST will be start very SOON !
Why am I giving this advance notice ? BECAUSE, I wish to advise ALL YOU LURKERS, that you should get your POSTING PASSWORD from the TownCrier ASAP, by using the LINK atop the TABLEROUND FORUM page !!!
HURRY, and do not procrastinate any longer.

TopazBonds, Dollar etc.#1288542/4/05; 00:56:45

I'd expected a run-up on Yield to accompany the Dollar rise Yesterday but it failed to materialise ... so the potential for a hike to DX95+ still lurks!
altPoG @ B348.67 has taken a hit too, down from 355ish.

The "stoppers" on Comex now number over 14K this month which is still good for a counter-trend $PoG+$ rise to break the "Currency Gold" concept once and for all.

An idea whose time has well and truly come!

With political/moral weight now firmly behind Gordon B, a sale is a gimme in the days/weeks ahead methinks.

968€/$ exchange rate no longer "the cause of concern" ?#1288552/4/05; 01:11:41

LONDON, Feb 3 (Reuters) - The strength of the euro against the dollar has become less of a concern and is not considered recessionary for the euro zone economy, a European G7 source said ahead of a meeting of the Group of Seven rich nations.
"The exchange rate is no longer the cause for concern that it was a few months ago," the source said. "It's not considered a recessionary factor."…
A major factor behind the dollar's slide late last year was investor concern over the ballooning U.S. current account and budget deficits, which many analysts see as a threat to overall economic stability.
The G7 source said the euro zone was eagerly waiting "to see if the commitment (by U.S. President George W. Bush) to halve the current account deficit in the next five years is backed up by policies."
Strange comment from this source? Why is the exchange rate suddenly no longer the cause for concern that it was a few months ago ? What's changed in between ? Any thoughts ??

BelgianMK/TC/Goldendome#1288562/4/05; 01:25:43

Forget about G.Brown. He's a straw-man (facade). Sorry, but I wish not to elaborate further on the matter. Time will tell.

@Goldendome : Be assured that Euroland knows its own particular weaknesess, very well. Germany's revision on unemployment statistics is a deliberate alarmbell. The needed structural reforms have to (and will) be implemented, "orderly" and within a much bigger frame than the borders of the expanding old-new continent !
In a few words...Euroland is being ridiculed, because something very particular is causing a constant pain in...!
And on the EU - China, relationship...we learned our lessons out of the US - Japan, relationship.

Euroland and the AA-block are two completely different (differing) animals. But since the world is dominated by the media responsible for the AA perception formation, Euroland remains percepted as a préhistoric fosile for the larger public. I even think, we like it that way.
This particular aspect on top of the realities is very important, because there are reasons why this is so.
Think of the above when you think about the gold matters.
Merci beaucoup cher ami.

TownCrierFrom the Thursday press conference Q&A#1288572/4/05; 01:47:14

(This first sound-bite works fine in isolation)

"we in the ECB have an enormous stake in markets functioning fairly and correctly. This is absolutely decisive. Market economies are based on market assessments, market price-setting, which is, and must be, fair. If it is not fair, we would be far from the optimum in terms of economic functioning. And all what we are aiming for would not function correctly. So I make this point very strongly."

I have a question concerning proposals to sell IMF gold or even revalue it to finance debt relief. What is the position of the Eurosystem?

That is not something that we have discussed recently.

^----(from url)----^

When an institution that has essentially become a rival is still holding on your behalf not an insignificant amount of your gold, I'm sure that exit strategies and such related items are among the things that are never discussed "recently". Wouldn't want the IMF to take premature umbrage.


968US bill aims to shake China off the peg.#1288582/4/05; 02:37:29

"If China does not ease controls on its currency within six months, it will face a 27.5% tariff on all exports to the US under legislation to be introduced in the Senate on Friday."

"Reacting to the news, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan said legislation "is not the right way ... "
More currency wars ! It seems that China is not so afraid of such a bill (they might see it as a means to cool down their economy a bit, and use the bill as an argument to evolve more to the euro-faction). This will certainly be discussed when Trichet meets the Chinese delegation in London this week.
As Belgian said : how long can the ungoing events evolve orderly ?

Belgian@ 968#1288592/4/05; 02:41:51

The $ and € are playing cat and mouse ! Call it a struggle, a fight, a war or whatever. Chose who's the cat or the mouse. The main point is "orderly change"..."gradual transition" !!! It is about "euro stability" and keeping this stability even during the hard times of structural reforms !!! All those statements are meant to not awake sleeping dogs. What if all pitbulls wake up together and rush to put their teeth into gooooooooold !!!

The US$-index (84), today...IS ONLY AT A 10 YEAR LOW (1995)!!! You have seen nothing yet...all the fuzz about €/$ exchange rate level is "yadayada" ! Cat and mouse are still "playing" whilst mama gold is quietly ironing.
Illustrated in a nice chart from Dan Norcini, the sympathetic Texas trader (see link). Watch how the ($-POG)-RSI is nicely "doming". Have a close look at the '99 WAG spike-off as the startshot. Can you imagine the consequences when at this level (+/-$400) we have Another one of such a shot !?

Do you remember that I mentioned that a representative of the German industry stated we can very easely live with a 1,40 €-$ exch. rate !?

This global economical beast will have to abandon its dominance plays with the "fabrications" of currency exchange rates !!! Emphasis on "fabrication". And fabricated they are. Herein lays the (ugly) answer to MK/TC question...
The euro (EMU) was the first step to eliminate our internal fights (fabrications) of exchange rates ! The next step will be...euhhum... somewhat bigger. Golden (and not Gordon).

Yes, many are hoping/wishing a gold-shock (another spike off restart). But why was the US$-index capable of stopping its decline exactly on that 80 maginot line !? Hahaaaa, what a funny coincidence.

968, you must remember two little small gold-details in our miniscule lilliputan land : 1/ Tobback asking Eyskens, WHY he wasn't putting a VAT on gold. 2/ F.Verplaetse and Dehaene, stating that the Belgian goldsales (?) were good business. Unfortunately you may not remember the circumstances under wich these lapsusses happened .Period !

CopperfieldWorld's First Golden Newspaper Comes to Beijing #1288602/4/05; 08:13:12

Chinese Flourishing Period, the world's first newspaper printed on gold paper, is available for Beijing collectors.

The 20-page collection focuses on China's past ten sessions of the top legislature and the top advisory body and records the prosperity of Chinese cultural, social and economic development.

The rare edition is printed on 16,000 square centimeters of gold paper, and the luxury edition is on a sheath of 39,000 square centimeters.

Collectors can have the gold book from Wang Fujing Book Store in down town Beijing.

(Xinhua News Agency March 16, 2004)

makcumkaMore Gold News from China#1288612/4/05; 09:11:34

China's interest in gold is growing.

Page in Russian. Translation:

Sales of gold "Olympic" bars started in Beijing today, which marks the first time in the history of the Olympic games.

Source: China Internet Information Center, February 4, 2005.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Experience first-hand the unifying power, security, and staying-power of gold#1288622/4/05; 09:35:12">gold 20 franc coins
GoldiloxGreenspan's Latest Hype#1288632/4/05; 09:52:27

via Geroge Ure:

The latest speech by Sir Alan is out today and is says that the Fed Boss sees some relief coming for the balance of trade deficit. The whole rap is on the FED WEBSITE but here's a few remarks which we read and predicting inflation in prices of imported goods:

"A consequence of the contraction in profit margins of exporters to the United States, and thus low pass-through of dollar depreciation to U.S. import prices, has been minimal pressure on U.S. consumer price inflation in recent years. A corollary is that the adjustment of U.S. real imports--that is, the quantity of imported goods and services--has been negligible.

However, we may be approaching a point, if we are not already there, at which exporters to the United States, should the dollar decline further, would no longer choose to absorb a further reduction in profit margins.

Although the limited response, to date, of import prices to the dollar's decline has likely forestalled a decline in U.S. real imports, the effect of the low pass-through of exchange rates into import prices on the nominal dollar value of imports, and thus on the trade balance, is more complex. Increases in import prices lower the quantity of imports but leave the resulting value of imports uncertain."

Stripped of FedSpeak, what Easy Money Al is saying is that our balance of trade will straighten out quickly if the price of Hondas and Toyotas goes through the roof. And that, pal, is inflation - and that should be wildly bullish for gold prices. That is, if anyone takes the time to figure out what that FedBuzz "However, we may be approaching a point, if we are not already there, at which exporters to the United States, should the dollar decline further, would no longer choose to absorb a further reduction in profit margin" means inside the US. Inflation.

GoldiloxMy thoughts on the UrbanSurvival post#1288642/4/05; 10:02:25

It appears that a lower dollar has completely failed to act in behalf of trade rebalancing so far.

Greenspan' statements suggest to me that he expects global suppliers will have to act when their margin pain threshold becomes too great.

Added to another story about possible tarriffs on Chinese goods if no Yuan depegging is insite, it looks lile the currency boyz would much rather see manufacturers take the heat for trade imbalance than besmudge the currency crowd.

- Goldilox

GoldiloxUS not to support British debt relief plan#1288652/4/05; 10:15:33


LONDON, Feb. 4 (Xinhuanet) -- The United States will not support Britain's debt relief facility plan for the poorest countries in the world, the American Treasury Under Secretary John Taylor said on Friday.

He told a small group of reporters who travelled with him to the G7 finance minsters' meeting in London that the US has its own"bold" proposal for debt relief for the poor countries.

British Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown has pledged touse Britain's presidency of the G7 to push for a scheme delivering full debt cancellation, trade benefits and financial assistance for the world's poorest countries under an International Finance Facility plan.

He said earlier this week that Britain "will be trying to persuade America that debt relief and extra finance for development is in its interests not just because it is good economics and social policy but good for its security as well."

He also said that "if the US wants to separate the extremists from those that they are trying to influence, it makes good sense to show how industrial nations can implement a Marshall Plan for developing countries."

So far Britain has already secured the backing of the three other European members of the G7 -- Germany, France and Italy -- for its international finance facility, which would double annual aid flows to 100 billion US dollars a year.

Brown said "we are demanding action this weekend from the G7."

But it was understood the US President George Bush has meanwhile launched his own development initiative for impoverishednations.

Taylor said "not only does the IFF not work for the United States, we don't need the IFF, " referring to Brown's idea for a new International Finance Facility and writing off debt to poor countries.

Taylor also said that the US is "not convinced of the need" to sell International Monetary Fund gold to finance debt relief.


Competing "plans" for debt management at the G7. Does Taylor want the EU to stop spotlighting gold, or just stop considering writeoffs? It's fun to watch these guys play "hot potato" with their economic "colonies", while third world trade deals continue to complicate their spider webs.

GoldiloxDX Whiplash#1288662/4/05; 10:22:12

@ Gandalf,

Reading the DX requires a neck brace this morning. Some $ shorts got handed their heads on a paper platter.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Only FIVE left! The perfect Valentine's gift to express yourself.#1288672/4/05; 10:22:41">gold ducat pendants and chain
Gandalf the WhiteOUCH !! Thanks (I think) Sir Goldilox !! <;-)#12886802/04/05; 10:53:36

Well that caps the 84.1 BARRIER and NOW the POG Contest may BEGIN !!


$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the April COMEX contract (GCJ05) on Wednesday, February 16, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, February 13th.

The "Price of Gold" (POG) Contest winner -- the person with the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a nineteenth Century 20 Lira Italian Umberto I coin, (which may be seen at the following LINK).
These coins were Minted between 1880 - 1897 with a Fineness of 0.900, which therefore contains an
"Actual Gold Content" of 0.1867 net fine troy ounces of pure GOLD !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2005 Gold Contract (GCJ05) on the date of Wednesday, February 16, 2005.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $421.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $421.0 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! "FIRST COME" has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Sunday, February 13, 2005.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY--- (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will be REQUIRED to answer the DIFFICULT and controversial subject by "Determining and COMPLETING the following statement": <;-)

I read the USAGOLD Forum ( how often? ) because ------ (in 25 words or more!).

LET the CONTEST begin !

"COME ON IN" all you Lurkers ! Now is the time to get your Posting Code from the TownCrier at the Link at the top of this PAGE !

Gandalf the White$$$$ $429.9 $$$$#12887102/04/05; 11:27:26

I read the USAGOLD Forum almost CONSTANDLY, (when I am awake), because one of my two computers and monitors is DEDICATED to the LINK
because this is the place where TRUTH and all important golden information is discussed in depth by both GAINTS (male and female) and the "common man" , due to the foresight and generosity of the TableRound's Host, Mr. Michael J. Kosares.

Gandalf the WhiteOOPS#12887202/04/05; 11:38:44

Constantly !
(Darn fingers are not following brainwaves)

MKBrown/IMF#12887302/04/05; 11:59:57

With Ass't TreasSec Taylor stating that the US is "not convinced of the need" to sell International Monetary Fund gold to finance debt relief, we are still left with the question on Gordon Brown's obsession with gold sales.
Why is he so insistent on selling the IMF gold? My view is that it is the most easily and fattest target that could be sighted on the periscope.

The question now becomes: "If this holding is so badly needed, what happens if it is suddenly and convincingly taken off the table?"

In the last go around, UK's gold was brought into play when the IMF push came up dry. What about this time around?

SproutRevaluing IMF Gold#12887402/04/05; 12:15:24

G Brown offering a Lifeline, for the Benefit of the World?
Another or FOA mentioned this slant once before

I've never seen a Lifeline with a noose attached to its end, but there's a lot of things I've never seen.

VanRipFour Feet's not Deep Enough#12887502/04/05; 12:24:07

Million Missing Nickels Found


The search for $180,000 in missing nickels ended in the back yard of a Miami-Dade County house today.
Law enforcement officials searched the home this morning and found nothing.
When agents went over the back yard with metal detectors, they hit on the more than 3 million nickels. Officials said the coins were buried in a wooden box, covered in a thick clear plastic tarp buried in a 4-foot deep hole. The coins were still inside Federal Reserve (news - web sites) bags, according to police.

Cavan ManIMF Gold#12887602/04/05; 12:24:25

If any remains, this hoard stays in the WEST. Perhaps this is Another sign of global monetary bifurcation?
StevensMy Take: On The Coming Influence Of The 4D's#12887702/04/05; 13:18:32

. We are about to enter a new era. Things will begin to progressively change over the next 10 years that will affect every aspect of our lives. This will be, for lack of a better title, the decade influenced by the 4D's.

The first D is the dollar. The dollar should continue to decline, in most likely, an orderly way for years to come. Economics dictates that dollars that have been spent abroad must ultimately return to these shores and be spent here. This will lead to huge increases in US exports and Tourism, as foreigners compete for cheap American goods.

While this will lead to higher prices of many goods and services, to US Citizens, the ability of the US to increase production to meet this demand should mute the price increases to some extent. Meanwhile, US import industries will suffer, and American travel abroad will slow markedly. So, it will depend on who and where you are in the economy that will determine whether you will gain or loose by the falling dollar. But, one thing is for sure, the standard of living of America will be less than it otherwise would be.

The second D, is for deficits. No one talks about budget surpluses any longer. Given the absence of Government spending limits, the on going war, the prospect of further foreign entanglements, and greater demands for Government spending, it is only a question of how big deficits will be.

There are three ways to finance a deficit: Raise taxes, borrow, by issuing more government bonds, or inflate, i.e., increase the money supply to pay the bills, which amounts to an inflation tax.

Depending on which of these choices Government employs will determine the economic consequences. Of the three, borrowing is the least coercive. It is a voluntary act between debtor (the government) and creditor (the investor). It affects interest rates to some degree, and therefore affects us all. It is also a claim on the American tax payer, since ultimately it is the tax payer that is the guarantor of Government debt.

Increasing taxes or inflation would be far more damaging than borrowing. Chances are, that in the not so distant future, all three of these choices will come into play. So, watch the size of the deficit as an early warning sign of possible higher interest rates, taxes, and inflation.

The third D is for debt. The amount of consumer debt has been growing progressively. However, so has wealth. To this point household debt has not been a major factor, and I doubt that it will be in the future. But government debt is another story. The present National Debt has recently passed 7 trillion dollars. Given the inevitable future deficits, this figure will progressively grow.

However, this is not our major problem, our real problem is the unfunded liabilities, the promises of Medicare, and Medicaid, that are estimated to be in the 60 to 70 trillion dollar area. The promises are there, but the money is not. Where will it come from? Most likely, the usual suspects: Higher borrowing, higher taxes, and higher inflation.

Lastly, is Demographics. World population is rising, and Capitalism is spreading throughout the world, replacing communism and socialism at a furious pace. As people learn to produce more, they need more commodities. We are already experiencing the first stages of a run on commodities.

For example, above and beyond the increased demand coming from China and India, and Eastern Europe, we have a new source of demand -- investment demand. It has been recently reported that Pension Funds, who hold 25 trillion dollars in investable funds, are looking to diversify by buying commodities. Because of the new investment demand, there are funds being developed that buy commodities and issue shares against them. The Pension funds are looking to buy these commodity funds, which will, in turn, lead to commodity funds buying more commodities. So, look for higher prices and shortages of commodities continuing, and prepare accordingly.

Then there are the Baby Boomers, all 77 million of them in this country alone, all starting to retire in 2008. This will have several ramifications. First, they will all want to go on vacation. They've worked hard and now is the time to go on that "dream vacation, " This time not for a week, like they always had to do, but for a month. Where are they going to stay? If they are somewhere for a month a hotel or motel room won't do. They need a kitchen, which means they need a Condo or apartment or house. There is no way that 77 million potential vacationers are going to find a vacation home, when they want one.

All of the hotel and motel rooms will begin to be in less demand as the business traveler shrinks, and the vacation traveler expands. This is one of the reasons why housing prices are going up. The Boomers are already positioning themselves by buying vacation homes in the locations they want to spend time. Any real estate that is connected to tourism has risen dramatically.

Look at any chart of any home builder and you will see it going straight up. Look at a chart of Starwood, they are in timeshares and resorts -- straight up. The travel industry is about to change dramatically, so position yourself now for future vacations. If this is a Real Estate "bubble," it is only in its infancy.

So, we have a commodity shortage, and home shortages developing, but that's nothing compared to the much more serious doctor shortage we are about to face. Consider the prospect of 77 million Boomers with a blank check in their hands for medical care. It is already getting harder to get a timely appointment with a doctor. With the aging of America, will come greater shortages of doctors and nurses, and non-critical medical problems will go on the back burner. Prepare to wait in line for good medical care, in the future.

Demographics will drive another area -- investments. As The majority of Americans get older, their investment goals will change. Keeping money will become more important than making money. This should lead, and probably has already led to, less demand for stocks and greater demand for bonds, money market funds, and cash. This could explain why the stock market has gone sideways while the bond market has remained stronger than anticipated. It may also explain why so much cash has stayed on the sidelines. Values are changing, and with changing values, comes changing markets. History in the coming years WILL NOT repeat itself.

All of these observations and forecasts are tempered by one fact -- INDIVIDUAL CHOICE. At any time, we as a nation can change problems, that appear inevitable, by solving them. The fact that the nation is in a very public battle of ideas, today, is a positive thing. W. C. Fields once said, " There comes a time when you have to take the bull by the tail, and face the situation." This, I submit, is such a time.

All in all, we are entering a challenging new future that will require new approaches to new problems, but as always, it WILL be interesting.

adminWe are now in Open Forum#12887802/04/05; 13:24:23

Thank you
TopazWhat a Day in Dollarville!#12887902/04/05; 14:42:39

DX-UP, Yields-UP, SM's-allUP ...and Gold @B349.26-UP.

IMF:- They all seem to have different agenda's here, The Euro croud look to de-toothing the Tiger, The US it appears want to keep the teeth right where they are ...and Gordon is desperate to become PM via altruistic gestures toward the 3rd World. His Sell Gold/Invest the proceeds/Apply the yields to debt relief MO is of course so 20th Century ...Two Birds Gordie can clean up.

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#12888002/04/05; 14:55:23">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Friday Market Excerpts

"Like a deer caught in headlights, gold bulls have been frozen by a mirage of bearish factors like IMF gold sales and an unjustifiable belief that the U.S. dollar is entering a long-term bullish uptrend," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

"Delusions over the current account deficit and some magic fix to the U.S. deficit are supporting dollar," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report, "so it's really another great buying opportunity for gold."

"The gold (market) in general has been under pressure because of the fact the dollar has shown some vitality in the last month or so," said Bill O'Neill, one of the principals with LOGIC Advisors. "That has been the key overriding factor. There also has been some speculation that there potentially could be some IMF gold sales, although I think that's very questionable," said O'Neill.

"And technically, the market has broken down a little bit. But with that being said, I think the market is just in a corrective phase and it will resume its uptrend. The key, when you're talking about the gold market, is the currency market.

"If you're a believer the dollar is going to rally significantly, then you should be selling gold. If you're a believer that the dollar is going to resume its downtrend - as I am - then you should be buying gold."

Gold futures ended at 3-1/2-month lows for a second straight day Friday on currency-based selling and the potential for gold sales or revaluation by the International Monetary Fund, analysts and traders said.

COMEX April gold fell $2.60 to $415.90 after dealing from $419.50 to $415.50, which was the contract's cheapest since Oct. 13.

A weakening euro versus the dollar throughout the day and talk of central bank selling in gold, as well as concerns over possible sales from IMF reserves, were the main drivers behind the slippage. A higher dollar makes dollar-denominated gold less affordable for non-U.S. investors.

The United States has ruled out a proposal to use some of the IMF's gold reserves for Third World debt relief, but Canada says the plan was not yet dead.

Britain's finance minister, Gordon Brown, the host of a Group of Seven economic powers summit this weekend, says he has support of European G7 partners for his proposals to cut the debt of emerging, especially African, nations.

"Today was mainly currency-related, but I think there was still some residual unease over statements by Brown concerning the IMF gold reserves," Refco metals analyst Tom Boustead said. "I think that, en masse, the market probably feels that, if anything happens, there will probably be a revaluation rather than an actual sale," Boustead said.

"If there's a revaluation, I think the market takes it well; if there's a sale, that's negative."

After gold's New York close, IMF Managing Director Rodrigo Rato said there were clear ways to sell gold effectively, if IMF shareholders decide to proceed.

"Certainly, we have done it before and we think there are clear ways to do it that will be the most effective from a financial point of view," Rato told reporters as he left to attend a G7 dinner.

Rato said he was not providing his opinion on whether the IMF should sell gold to finance a debt relief plan.

"(Selling reserves) would take a long time to happen, but just the idea they would sell it has put the tone of the market from being overly bullish and dollar bearish to where the dollar is strengthening a little bit," said Andy Brosoff at Mitsubishi International Corp.

------(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)---

TownCrierHEADLINE: US inflation: are Savers Screwing the Pooch?#12888102/04/05; 15:11:44

Capital Chronicle (Feb 4, 2005) -- Screwing the pooch. Not a pretty image. But, if you hold US sovereign debt or save in a US dollar denominated account, get used to Fido.

Some US investors have long complained that the core CPI used by the Fed does not include energy or food costs. It's common on Earth to accept these two items as essential expenses. Why those from Planet Fed fix on a "core" rate excluding food and energy is one of the mysteries of the cosmos.

The result is that the Fed gets ownership of a 2.2% core CPI rate as of December 2004 and disowns, or so it appears, the broader CPI rate of 3.3%.

The trim, slim "core" CPI understates inflation. In fact, BOTH rates do...

All in all, significantly understating both its CPI measures might have been a brilliant and (if deliberate) devious way for the Fed to try claw back the budget deficit: just let inflation eat away at the debt. Unfortunately (but small wonder) ordinary citizens saw through and admired the scheme so much they emulated it.

And, lo, there were twin deficits.

^-------(from url)-----^

Buying tangible assets is indeed a tried-and-true method employed by citizens throughout the world to avoid incurring losses from currency depreciation. Not all of them go so deeply into debt to do it, however.

Of tangible assets, none other offers the ease of storage, the safety of indestructibility, the high liquidity and low buy-sell spread, and a convenient depth of trade in world-wide markets as is available through gold. Don't just fly from your currency randomly into hard assets -- choose gold, the Universal savings asset.


ororeeftransfer of Debt#12888202/04/05; 15:16:59

•Financial Organization and Operations of the IMF
•Where Does the IMF Get Its Money?
•IMF Borrowing Arrangements: GAB and NAB
•IMF Quotas
•Special Drawing Rights
•How Does the IMF Lend?
•The IMF at a Glance
•Factsheets List

A Factsheet - September 2004
Gold in the IMF
Gold played a central role in the international monetary system until the collapse of the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates in 1973. Since then, the role of gold has been gradually reduced. However, it is still an important asset in the reserve holdings of a number of countries, and the IMF remains one of the largest official holders of gold in the world.
The IMF's gold holdings
The IMF holds 103.4 million ounces (3,217 metric tons) of gold at designated depositories. The IMF's total gold holdings are valued on its balance sheet at SDR 5.9 billion (about $8.5 billion) on the basis of historical cost. As of August 31, 2004, the IMF's holdings amounted to $42.2 billion (at then current market prices).
The IMF acquired virtually all its gold holdings through four main types of transactions under the original Articles of Agreement. First, the original Articles prescribed that 25 percent of initial quota subscriptions and subsequent quota increases were to be paid in gold. This represented the largest source of the IMF's gold. Second, all payments of charges (i.e., interest on members' use of IMF credit) were normally made in gold. Third, a member wishing to purchase the currency of another member could acquire it by selling gold to the IMF. The major use of this provision was sales of gold to the IMF by South Africa in 1970–71. And finally, members could use gold to repay the IMF for credit previously extended.
The IMF's policy on gold today
The Second Amendment to the Articles of Agreement in April 1978 eliminated the use of gold as the common denominator of the post-World War II exchange rate system and as the basis of the value of the Special Drawing Right (SDR). It also abolished the official price of gold and abrogated the obligatory use of gold in transactions between the IMF and its members. It furthermore required that the IMF, when dealing in gold, avoid managing its price or establishing a fixed price.
The Articles of Agreement now limit the use of gold in the IMF's operations and transactions. The IMF may sell gold outright on the basis of prevailing market prices, and may accept gold in the discharge of a member's obligations at an agreed price, based on market prices at the time of acceptance. These transactions in gold require an 85 percent majority of total voting power. The IMF does not have the authority to engage in any other gold transactions—such as loans, leases, swaps, or use of gold as collateral—nor does it have the authority to buy gold.
The IMF's policy on gold is governed by the following principles:
•As an undervalued asset held by the IMF, gold provides fundamental strength to its balance sheet. Any mobilization of IMF gold should avoid weakening its overall financial position.
•The IMF should continue to hold a relatively large amount of gold among its assets, not only for prudential reasons, but also to meet unforeseen contingencies.
•The IMF has a systemic responsibility to avoid causing disruptions to the functioning of the gold market.
•Profits from any gold sales should be used whenever feasible to create an investment fund, of which only the income should be used.
How and when the IMF used gold
Outflows of gold from the IMF's holdings occurred under the original Articles of Agreement through sales of gold for currency, and via payments of remuneration and interest. Since the Second Amendment of the Articles of Agreement, outflows of gold can only occur through outright sales. Key gold transactions included:
•Sales for replenishment (1957–70). The IMF sold gold on several occasions during this period to replenish its holdings of currencies.
•South African gold (1970–71). The IMF sold gold to members in amounts roughly corresponding to those purchased in these years from South Africa.
•Investment in U.S. government securities (1956–72). In order to generate income to offset operational deficits, some IMF gold was sold to the United States and the proceeds invested in U.S. government securities. Subsequently, a significant buildup of IMF reserves prompted the IMF to reacquire this gold from the U.S. government.
•Auctions and "restitution" sales (1976–80). The IMF sold approximately one third (50 million ounces) of its then-existing gold holdings following an agreement by its members to reduce the role of gold in the international monetary system. Half of this amount was sold in restitution to members at the then-official price of SDR 35 per ounce; the other half was auctioned to the market to finance the Trust Fund, which supported concessional lending by the IMF to low-income countries.
•Off-market transactions in gold (1999–2000). In December 1999, the Executive Board authorized off-market transactions in gold of up to 14 million ounces to help finance IMF participation in the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. Between December 1999 and April 2000, separate but closely linked transactions involving a total of 12.9 million ounces of gold were carried out between the IMF and two members (Brazil and Mexico) that had financial obligations falling due to the IMF. In the first step, the IMF sold gold to the member at the prevailing market price and the profits were placed in a special account invested for the benefit of the HIPC Initiative. In the second step, the IMF immediately accepted back, at the same market price, the same amount of gold from the member in settlement of that member's financial obligations. The net effect of these transactions was to leave the balance of the IMF's holdings of physical gold unchanged.

Public Affairs Media Relations

It seems as though the IMF taxes each member by demanding payment in gold which it values at 35.00 per oz then lends the gold to a deserving needy member who promptly returns the fiscal gold at market price to the IMF which in turn credits the deserving needy member with the difference between acquired price and market price as debt relief.
My question is does the IMF now carry the gold in its accounts at market price? For the next time it sees fit to repeat the process. Does it need to wait until the price of gold rises again to give benefit to a needy member ?Does this not simply mean that the IMF has taxing ability on its membership and can redistribute wealth to any other member ?
Has it achieved an international tax ability without consent of the Soverign citizens.?
This is Taxation without legal consent.No?
It seems to me they sell gold to the US to acquire Treasury bonds (debt), they are monetizing gold are they not? Then they use the interest from those bonds as income.
The income is then used to buy gold elsewhere or anywhere. Every time the IMF buys gold, debt is added to the selling countries balance sheet.
It is all a scheme to add debt to the Rich countries balance sheet and give it to a needy member. It's nothing more than redistribution of wealth from the haves to the have- nots.
The transfer of debt from the balance sheet of a poor country to the balance sheet of a rich country is what it is all about. Every time a poor country sells gold to the IMF to discharge debt, the gold may be sold elsewhere transferring the debt to the balance sheet of the acquiring country. In other words when the U.S. buys gold from the IMF debt is added to the U.S. balance sheet. The U.S. is monetizing gold for the benefit of giving debt relief to poor countries.
This leads me to believe that there should be two Gold prices, one for countries whose gold is encumbered by debt and the other in private hands with no debt attached to it.

lifer$$$$$ $424.20 $$$$$#12888302/04/05; 15:22:20

I read the USAGold site twice daily, once at lunch and all evening. Why? Because I dearly enjoy seeking the truth which now is in short supply in the US media.
ororeefMilitary Might makes Right#12888402/04/05; 15:31:42

I suspect Greenspans ACE in the hole is whenever the U.S. buys Gold from the IMF and in turn issues Treasury Bonds as payment,in the end possession is 9/10 of the law.When the crunch comes and the Banksters call in thier debt the U.S. can default only if it has the military might to keep possession of the physical.
slingshot$$$$$$$$$$422.30$$$$$$$$$#12888502/04/05; 15:35:11

I read the USAGOLD Forum because, this is the place to be for a well rounded dialog that endeavers not only to bring the facts to its readers but also the intricacies and nuances of and ever changing gold market. This Forum welcomes both beginner and expert to express their veiws in a cordial atmosphere, but not without the scrutiny of the forum to support their expressions. Having a set of rules, USAGOLD is flexible to the issues of the day and to posters that feel strongly about a point. I find the posters here at USAGOLD most tolerant of others and their willingness to answer their questions exemplify the character of those who post here. USAGOLD, now gone INTERNATIONAL, I look forward to electronicaly converse with new friends sharing questions about gold and someday meeting them. I read USAGOLD, every other day, except during hunting season ;0)

Topaz$$$426.00$$$#12888602/04/05; 16:52:40

I visit the Forum to:-
(a) Win Gold Coins.
(b) Practice my Typing.
(c) Try and stay ahead of the Pack.
(d) Check if Another has returned.
(e) Get a Global view of fellow GoldHeart's thought processes.
...and I do this usually once (or twice) a Day.

Sundeck$$$$$$426.0$$$$$$#12888702/04/05; 17:08:15

I read the USAGOLD Forum every day, and monitor it frequently throughout the day, because I am an investor with a lot riding on gold and gold stocks - but also other things. This forum efficiently collects, distributes and distils relevant financial/economic/political events globally; providing a continuous, evolving basis upon whch to make investment decisions.

Investment decisions are always about the future and one's future well-being. One's ability to reliably judge the future depends greatly on one's experience and understanding of the past and what is happening aroundabout. Knowledge and understanding are never complete...there is always uncertainty akin to "the fog of war" which clouds decisions. Material on this forum, critically appraised, helps to penetrate this investment fog and to make better decisions.

Sundeck$$$$426.5$$$$#12888802/04/05; 17:10:03

I don't believe it, Sir Topaz and I reached the same conclusion...please alter mine to 426.5


DruidCitigroup Bond Market Trading Memo Revealed - FT#12888902/04/05; 17:26:18

TOKYO -(Dow Jones)- Citigroup Inc.'s (C) huge trades in the eurozone government bond market last August - which were later described as "knuckle- headed" by Chuck Prince, its chief executive - came shortly after an internal memorandum spelt out how the US investment bank could "very profitably" destabilize the market, the Financial Times reported in its Tuesday international edition.

The memo outlines a strategy to shake up the eurozone market, where trading margins have contracted because of transparency and stiff competition, the report said.

The document dated July 20, two weeks before the trades were conducted says Citigroup wanted to "turn the European Government bond market into one that more closely resembles" the less transparent US Treasury bond market, which is dominated by a much smaller number of investment banks. "Over time, this may help to kill off some of the smaller dealers" the memo adds.

A Citigroup spokesman said last night: "As this is the subject

Druid: Here-in lies but just a small microcosm of what is transpiring in all markets across the spectrum. This could be why ANOTHER suggested that you should throw away the charts and graphs because maybe, just maybe, he knew that market intervention among the paper crowd could create any type of "picture" they needed to reflect and thus herd the traders in the direction they needed to. Just a thought.

Druid(No Subject)#12889002/04/05; 17:27:45

Druid: Doh! Long day bugs and bugettes.
Black BladeGold Lower#12889102/04/05; 18:54:45


"Like a deer caught in headlights, gold bulls have been frozen by a mirage of bearish factors like IMF gold sales and an unjustifiable belief that the U.S. dollar is entering a long-term bullish uptrend," said Peter Grandich, editor of the Grandich Letter.

"The job report was another disaster for the future of the U.S. dollar," said Ned Schmidt, editor of the Value View Gold Report. "In Chairman Greenspan's dreams and speeches, he sees the current account deficit correcting, [but] how can it correct if the U.S. is losing manufacturing jobs and having to import more goods," he said. "Delusions over the current account deficit and some magic fix to the U.S. deficit are supporting dollar," he said, so it's really another great buying opportunity for gold."

Black Blade: The fundamentals for the precious metals remain strong and the current price pull back is simply a temporary pull back as weak hands are shaken loose and traders scalp profits without regard to the longterm. Should continue to be interesting.

GoldendomeStevens -- You are thinkin' Man#12889202/04/05; 19:30:53

Sir Stevens: I have enjoyed your two recent and in-depth reports: This latest on the 4 D's and your previous predictions for the year 2005, entered a few days ago. I hope that you continue imparting with us your views on the economy and it's effect on things around us. Cheers!

Some feedback and questions:

If, as you say, the dollar (your 1st D) is destined to fall for years in an orderly manner, it seems reasonable to me, that interest rates, likewise, would continue to climb for years; if, as you say again, we hope to finance the continuing deficits (your 2nd D) through the lesser of three evils--borrowing.

Can we assume from the gradualism and lack of alarm in your paper's tone, that borrowers (present and future) are going to benignly accept this gradual weakening of the dollar and the consequential loss of *value* that entails? Without making a run for the exits, creating a stampede, and an instant bounce up in interest rates? Perhaps they all will. Probably they all
will, as all borrowers at present seem mollified and accepting of reduced value in dollar terms for the luxury of future business and U.S. military protection.(?)

However, regardless of the gradualism (let's just concede that for now) won't interest rates eventually rise to a point were they threaten your 3rd D, debt? And at that point, perhaps some of your wealth assumptions, if we are indeed thinking about real estate? For high rates should surely slow down the ability of buyers to finance mortgages that will be running in many cases in the hundreds of thousands of dollars (maybe more, if the people were "really" optimistic.)

Perhaps as you point out, some of those foreign holders of dollars really will want to cash out of dollars and will do so for a piece of the Rock, becoming the next greater fools buying extremely pricey real estate! I guess we've seen that before too, huh? Japanese in the 1980's. Interesting thought though, yours--that a bundle of boomers are going to be -two- home owners, vacation and all...Hmm. maybe so.

That scary area of unfunded government liabilities, you touch on the funding of those a little lightly, IMO. $60,000,000,000,000 or seventy trillion dollars looks like a lot of zeros even in today's depreciated dollar. Do you care to hazard any guesses as to the percentages of numbers like that, that will be funded by your three usual suspects: borrowing, taxes, inflation??
I will. Assuming the future remains unchanged regarding those numbers...and I don't think for a minute that they can, but here are my guesses on funding percentages in the order given above, 3%, 2%, 95%. Good Golly, Miss Molly! I think I'm going to continue buying Gold and or Silver, or as you refer to them: Commodities.

Nice speaking with you! I look forward to more of your analysis.

Best regards, G-dome

ororeefMore Debt Means Higher Gold Price#12889302/04/05; 19:50:01

Why doesen't the U.S. like the idea of IMF gold sales?
Its because when the U.S. buys IMF gold it pays with Treasury Bonds which means more U.S.debt.
They could print Dollars which is inflationary.
They are in a box!
The IMF could revalue thier gold holdings,but I suspect they already have done that .It all depends what the current valuation of thier holdings are .If thier holdings are ALREADY at MARKET PRICE.THIS MAY REQUIRE A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE MARKET PRICE OF GOLD IN ORDER FOR THEM TO FORGIVE FURTHER DEBT.THIS COULD BE THE BEGINNING.......The Catalist...
The Dynamite CAP...

YGMGandalf....POG Contest....#12889402/04/05; 20:01:23

Think I'll do like so many others and hold off til the day before...Not because it narrows the odds but where I think it'll be would probably get you mad and you'd have the Hobbits after my my a$$...
Noone likes a pessimist when it comes to their Yellow treasure...YGM

Sundeck@ororeef #128893 IMF Gold Valuations#12889502/04/05; 20:03:25

Please refer to the discussion on this subject in the archives 17 Jan 05 (TownCrier, Sundeck et al.)

IMF gold is "valued" at about $82 per ounce on average, but most is valued at about $53 and a little around $300


ororeefSundeck#12889602/04/05; 22:35:14

With the Dollar falling it takes a higher per cent of Gold OR higher interest rates to stabalize it no?
If foreign holders of Dollars intervene selling or PRINTING yen ,yuan,or U-owes then they are playing musical chairs on the Titanic.

ororeefPick-Pockets#12889702/04/05; 22:42:16

I have a word of Caution for Condoleeza Rice,a few years ago I was visiting London ,Paris & Rome and in each city the locals cautiond me about Pick-Pockets. Condy...Don't let them Pick your Pocket .!
spikedog$$$$$ $432.00 $$$$$#12889802/04/05; 22:50:22

Being a mere squire, I try to sneak my way into the great hall many times a day to hear the great tales from the most learned knights/ladies at this table. Truly now I understand that knowledge, wisdom and patience are the hallmarks of a knight or lady. Alas, more studying for me before I can claim a spot at the table! Until then, I will be in the shadows, listening, learning, and maybe asking a question or two.
968Russian Central Bank Switches to Euro-Dollar Basket in Targeting Ruble#12889902/05/05; 02:23:12

"Russia's central bank said on Friday it had begun targeting the ruble's nominal exchange rate against the euro as well as the dollar, the Reuters news agency reports. The shift is meant to bring currency policy more in line with trade flows.

The Bank of Russia said in a statement it had begun targeting a dual currency basket — made up of 90 U.S. cents and 10 euro cents — as of Feb. 1 and would gradually raise the weighting of euros.

"Increases of the weighting of the euro in the twin currency basket, to a level appropriate for the task of exchange rate policy, will take place step-by-step as market players adapt," the statement said."
Very slowly the shift to euros continues...

BelgianReuters (No spin.No agenda)#12890002/05/05; 04:28:03

Rodrigo Rato (IMF managing director)...after copious diner, a cold gold shower :
- There are clear ways to "sell" gold "effectively" if...IMF shareholders (US > 17,3 % of the votes) decide to proceed (march-?)
- "Certainly" we (the IMF) have done it before...
- ...Will do it in an "efficient" way...
Remember that IMF/FED supported (?) WAG !
Remember that A.Greenspan is and must remain "GOD" (CNBC)!
Remember the UK's function (through its inspirational rulers) as a euro (EU-EMU) dam !

How about time for some US-treasury goldsales !?

The chart-trend (25 yrs USTB-10 yrs) must remain intact ! (see link)

Look at friday's intra-day charts (Au/$/IR) before and after God Alan's yada about the state of the deficit(s).
The media, politicos, Fed, marketmovers, were nicely playing in concert, again. Same tune, same chefs d'orchestre. Perfide Abion has been invaded and occupied !

NedThis woman is going to be trouble..........#1289012/5/05; 05:34:15

"In a move likely to rattle Iran's rulers and frustrate allies in Europe, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has signaled that the Bush administration is adopting a harder line towards Iran -- but she has stopped short of explicitly calling for regime change."
NedG.E. quits on Iran a week after Haliburtons announcement.........#1289022/5/05; 05:37:02

"General Electric Co., which has been accused of collecting "blood money" by doing business in Iran, will stop accepting any new orders for business in the country, company officials said Wednesday.

The move by the world's largest company by market value comes just days after another conglomerate, Halliburton Co., announced the company will wind down its operations in Iran.

"We're seeing a turnaround by a number of U.S. companies operating in Iran," said Dan Katz, chief counsel to U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J. "

slingshotGreat Day to be a Goldbug!#1289032/5/05; 06:53:35

Looks like they slid past GAB's low call of $414 and am now reading the slide may continue to $403. Are you catching the falling knife as I am doing? Never been too good at timing and so grabbing the blade in the freefall state instead of waiting till it sticks in the floor board and grab the handle, will render some more cuts on my hand.
Not to worry about a few dollars here and a few dollars there.
The coin shops are doing good business and shortages of the 1 oz, gold eagle appear at times and Maples are selling but not as fast. Silver has been doing strange things in my neck of the woods.
You can buy a roll of 20 silver eagles for $8.75 each. Buy them one at a time and they cost $11.00. Yepper! The Flea Markets/Swap Meets two weeks ago had first strike ;0) going for $11.00 and last weekend they rose to $12.00 a coin. They are selling! Silver dollars, Morgan's and Peace, graded Good to Very Good, common dates are between $10 and $ 12 a coin. The interset in these coins is growing.
These $12.00 Silver Eagles I assume are people buying one or two for their coin collection.
Back to Gold. I have an Asian friend and we speak of gold alot and he has told me that his friends are buying jewelry in the 22/24k. Where do you find that? I asked. In the small shops. The major stores in our Malls are 10k and 14k and look out if you find 18k.

BelgianThe democratization crusade - Gold - Oil - dollar#1289042/5/05; 08:15:52

The places that have been chosen to be democratized, are, with the exception of Zimbabwe, oilreserve-rich places.
Even Mark Tatcher had some "private" democratization plans for an African oilcountry (E.G.). And Venuzuela was on the brink of being "de"-democratized.

How does it come that all those specific un-democratic places haven't evolved into democracies during the past 4 decades that oil-wealth and a dollar-standard was at their disposal ??? The famous "WHY" question.

Idem dito for South Africa with its magnificent golden arch.

WHAT were the real reasons that these different nations, with oil/resources/gold, never succeeded in getting their house in order as to be fully integrated into the global economic order on an equal foothing ?

What kind of democracy (freedom) are we going to "impose" these nations, this time ?

Has the "dollar-gold-oil"-concept of the past 3 decades been responsible for the desastrous results we are facing now !? Will this new crusade,... "change"... those intrinsically wealthy regions/states.
Note that Sudan (oil + China) is not (yet) on the list of democratization candidates !?

Is Russia (or China) a democratic/freedom state on Western standards ? Will any outside imposed regime change in Russia stop the terror overthere ? Or in Myamar (+ oil)...Nigeria(+ oil)...Congo(+oil)...Angola(+oil)...Timor(+oil)...etc ?

Are it the specific "states" that are threathening our Western (or universal) values or is it ...more specifically their oil/gas-reserves ?

How much more CHEAP gold must be "sacrificed" as to have these roque states (outposts) democratized and freed from themselves !? And who's gold (under + aboveground) should be used for the holy cause ...US, Canada, Australia, Africa...? Private stashes...?

Will the ongoing democratization have triomphed...WHEN OILPRICES GO BACK DOWN TO NOTHING and flows freely and abundantly through all the pipelines !? Alelujah.

In the mid seventies, after Nixon changed the gold-dollar-oil story, there was a lot of turmoil (war) in the ME resource rich places, also. Was this also an effort to democratise that region ?

Can democracy (freedom) spring/grow out of coercive crusades, destruction, intrige, exploitation...etc ?
Does the Western dollar model works as a one size fits all ?

Now that it is crystal clear that the paper-gold-contract maket is shrinking,...all dollar users will have to move to the forex for hedging and the physical goldtrade can come into the forefront. But,...apparently...we are running out of the metal for trading it cheaply. This is a problem for the democratizers' currency. And the Big democratization needs the oil wealth as to give the democracy substance.

Simply wanted to emhasize again how the dollar-gold-oil complex is a pure political given.
If we are running out of cheap goldmetal...we can stop trading or...let the price float. There's less and less in between. How much chances for succes has the freedom crusade under these evolving circumstances ? Thoughts.

GoldiloxUS companies leaving Iran#1289052/5/05; 08:21:40

With GE and Halliburton bailing, one might suspect that the spit is about to hit the fan. These companies delivered all the justifications in the world for making hay while the Sun shone, so they are very likely "canaries in the coal mine", and are heeding the warning (direct or not) to "get while the gettin' is good".

If Iranian oil production suffers the setbacks we've seen in Iraq, watch for oil and gas to spike considerably - along with PM - due to a "security premium."

Interesting complications are the reactions of Chiina and Russia when they see their oil investments go up in smoke.

The US media vilified the French for not wanting the NeoCons to annex their Iraqi investments, so what boogeymen will be manufactured if the rest of the world cries foul in Iran? Will the objections be as ineffective as they were for Iraq, or will someone put up larger roadblocks? For those who have read past the mealy-mouthed public school textbooks, Pearl Harbor was a direct response to the cutoff of oil flow to Imperial Japan.

Preemptive war is so much easier to predict than pure defensive action, as one can just "follow the money!"

Belgian@ Slingshot#1289062/5/05; 08:37:06

It has already been 5 good/very good years for those who discovered gold !!! Good, because the metal is unbelievable cheap...very good, because all have plenty of time to discover it, understanding it and accumulate it gradually to their understanding.
But the best/very best days are still to come Sir ! Not days, but years !
The same "working bees" that have been hiding gold so long for the general public,...are the ones that know what is going to happen with the yellow honey !!! Bees are bees, aren't they ...and they are real Slingshot !

Dollar Bill.,.#1289072/5/05; 08:38:09

Since we have a weekend open forum policy, I must say I was confuzzed by democratic party operatives moving ahead with Dean as the head of the DNC. Because I have read that a large number of democratic party big donors said that they would not contribute during a dean tenure and usually THAT would be enough to stop a candidates chances.
The Jewish group said that they wanted a different direction for the DNC and so my question was, WHAT could trump the threat of a donor revolt?
Only thing I see, is that at the Dem Boston convention, there were 400 gay delegates. And gay folk are strewn throughout the the Dem staff.
Dean is getting the support and backing to win, despite donor revolt, because the gays are making thier push now.

In my state, Connecticut, the legislature was not too far away from granting some -civil union- status to gays.
However, the gay movement, recently seeing a UCONN poll that said that a majority of Conn citizens supported a gay marriage status, just told the legislature that they no longer wanted a civil union deal.
Having watched the UCONN and Quanipiac college (conn.) polls during the election, I had to conclude that college poll taking is fraudulent. Students will lie. And political minded students, working the phones for the poll, just are too untrustable to believe.
So, I believe that the UCONN college poll about gay support was the result of lying by student poll takers, and the gay movement in Conn was fooled by the poll enough to think that support for gay marriage is there in this state.
Consequently, they discarded the chance for civil unions in thier new effort to get full marriage status in Ct.
I think we are in for a huge push through the media and the democratic party for gay marriage. The entire Dean team will certainly make sure we have that issue in front of us.
I mention this because Money usually trumps any other issue in the political world. During the 1972 Democratic party change, Donors were shown the door, and this is the only other time that I know of where it has happened.

GoldiloxRice urges 'united front' on Iran#1289082/5/05; 09:06:53


"New US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has called on Europe to show "unity of purpose" with Washington in opposing Iran's nuclear programme.

"Diplomacy can work" in resolving tensions over Tehran's nuclear ambitions, she said after talks with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder.

But Iran had to show it was prepared to live up to its obligations, she said.

The EU has tried to negotiate with Tehran over its nuclear activities, but the US has urged a tougher stance.

The US failed last year to get Iran reported to the UN Security Council to face possible sanctions.

France, Germany and the UK are now negotiating with Iran to turn a freeze on its nuclear enrichment activities into abandonment."


Not surprisingly, the "with us or again' us" mantra will be repeated ad nauseum.

In a move of diplomatic economy, even the pre-Iraqi rhetoric has been recycled. With the gutting of US intelligence that axed the pros and decorated the "tricksters", we can expect similarly Xeroxed "intelligence" reports to surface from the bowels of Virginia and MI-6, and Mossad.

Anglo-American-Israeli oil interests are preempting the world oil grab, so as not to be cut off like the Axis were in 1940. Democratization began in the opium fields to produce "intelligence financing", and continues in the oil patch for fueling military expansion. Once the patch is "secure" look for other natural-resource-rich hot spots to require "security actions". If the Asian block pulls an "Islamic Dinar" rabbit out of their hat, watch for "banking reform" in the slave labor producers - follow the money.

A cookie cutter pattern is being played out in South America . . . secure Columbia first, for "drug money financing", then Venezuela, for fuel, and then spank the Brazilians and Argentines who embarrass the "banksters" by resisting the trading of their natural resources for IMF-WB loans - again, follow the money.


With the Democratic party in utter shambles as evidenced by the consideration of HOWARD DEAN as chairman of the party, with no alternatives or plans to stop the BUSH adminstration with regards to the reform of existing programs regarding some domestic issues including SOCIAL SECURITY reform, the privatization of indidvidual SOCIAL SECURITY accounts seems highly likely to see the light of day. WHAT IF ONE OF THE OPTIONS IN THE PRIVATIZATION PLAN ALLOWS FOR THE PURCHASE OF GOLD COINS?????????? If this could be possible, then the overwhelming majority of hard asset proponents would be in favor of private accounts and it would be ridiculous for the DEMOCRATS to oppose the adminstrations reform plans. THOUGHTS ANYONE??????? ALWAYS, THANKS IN ADVANCE.
ToolieDollar Bill#1289102/5/05; 09:22:45

I think that the Democratic Party may be slowly beginning to recognize that their association with "big business" has hurt their ability to gather popular support. The Dean machine was responsible for a large increase in individual "internet" contributions. I'm looking for them to make a move toward populism that will mean putting some of their "special interests" on the back burner. I hear little from them that leads me to believe that they understand the way that the world is being reshaped by globalization (there should be terror in their eyes over what is happening to the dollar). They appear to be behind the curve but at least heading toward becoming a more viable party. FWIW

Things are still awful here in Michigan 7.3% (official) unemployment, higher around Detroit. I may be asking Randy to change my handle soon, I haven't been a toolie for nearly a year. Fencie, Loafer – to describe the way I spent the time. OR if things pan out, maybe pizza dude or surveymiester.

GoldiloxDemo 'fuzz#1289112/5/05; 09:30:34

@ $ Bill,

With the rumor mill rife with accusations that the third-parties were financed by the NeoCons to split votes and a growing impression that Kerry was "Bush-lite" to allow the NeoCons to essentially run unopposed, the Demos are searching for an electorate base. Dean, although left of the money, found a strong following in the Demo-centrist camps, as Nader and Kucinich were unable to do.

Labor has been emasculated in the last 40 years, but may find some new inspiration in the continuing disenfranchisement of American workers.

The media has worked hard to present the Kennedies, Clintons, and Kerries as "liberals", and kept any real liberals from the airwaves. These guys are about as "liberal" as Genghis Kahn.

The internet paints a different picture, and Dean built his following with a very strong internet push. Demos want to utilize this tactic to reach back into the "Common Causes" and "Art Bells" of the world who have very large, but unorganized audiences.

In many ways, this resembles the now-lost-to-history power struggles between the expansionist and isolationist camps of pre-WWII.

It will be interesting to see if they can rebuild a base or if this is just "entertainment".

Gandalf the WhiteThe end of the slippery slope ? <;-)#1289122/5/05; 11:01:22$HUI,uu[h,a]daoayiay[pb200!f][vc60][iut!Uh89,21!Lp88,21,3]&pref=G

CROSSOVER is coming SOON !

GoldendomeNo gold in them thar accounts!#1289132/5/05; 11:52:54

Sir Hoosier: I have doubts that gold coins would be in the mix of SSI private account options.
The President in his State message alluded to the example of the Fed. Thrift savings plan, that he said would include a conservative stock fund, a conservative bond fund, a money market fund, and perhaps some type of international fund. Basically, four options.

In the conservative stock fund, I doubt, that even large, well run gold mining companies would be included, as the government is apparently loath to any encouragement of gold. Would political pressure be brought on the funds to prop-up sagging U.S. industry? That's my question. If a large auto production company or bank were to experience a downturn, would pressure be brought on the managers of the funds to either buy stock or newly floated bonds in these failing industries, in effort to stabilize them?

My opinion is that it is no better odds than 50-50, that these accounts will be established. The loyal opposition will oppose, then talk... I feel better chances will be had by tinkering around the edges of the program. A more easily arrived at compromise might include, lifting the limit on earnings (now about $90,000) subject to SSI taxes, making it correspond to Medicare taxes now levied against total adjusted gross income. There may also be tinkering with the formulas used in figuring cost of living adjustments and other formulas that may be adjusted to cut future benefits, or eligibility amounts. Any agreement reached in these areas could be touted loudly by politicians in both parties, as a great victory for the future of America! Then they could all get back to the business of ignoring the problem for some more years.

The President personally faces no further re-election, he can afford to be strident on the subject; his party members in congress, however, will face re-election, soon! They will be much more cautious around this lightning rod issue; grab to tight and you may get burned. Though most of the congressional districts around the country are well Gerrymandered to favor one party or the other, getting too far out front on an issue as politically sensitive as SSI, could prove disastrous in the next congressional elections. (All we need do is think back to the failed national health care program put forth by the democratic party in the early 1990's, that was instrumental in their being swept from long, established power.)

StevensGoldendome...#1289142/5/05; 12:11:38

Nice meetin' you. As to your questions..."If as you say, the dollar (your 1st D) is destined to fall for years in an orderly manner, it seems reasonable to me, that interest rates, likewise, would continue to climb for years;" ... You would think so, and they might, but the dollar has been going down for the last three years and long term rates have stayed unusually low. Obviously, something else is going on. It could be a shift of funds from stocks to bonds, by future retirees.

"Can we assume from the gradualism and lack of alarm in your paper's tone, that borrowers (present and future) are going to benignly accept this gradual weakening of the dollar and the consequential loss of *value* that entails?"....They have. This, even as they diversify into other non-dollar investments.

"won't interest rates eventually rise to a point were they threaten your 3rd D, debt? And at that point, perhaps some of your wealth assumptions"...Certainly if interest rise high enough, there will be debt casualties at the margins. This is always the case. But, this is not in the cards yet, we are still a long way from a positive interest rate that bites."

"Perhaps as you point out, some of those foreign holders of dollars really will want to cash out of dollars and will do so for a piece of the Rock, becoming the next greater fools buying extremely pricey real estate!"...They already are. Our cheap dollar is leading to foreign retirees choosing America as their number one vacation destination. Everything here is on sale to them. I no many of them personally and some have already moved here permanently. I think the rise in real estate is far from over.

As to my guess as to the percentage break down of the funding of future unfunded liabilities, I wont put a number on it but I think it will be borrowing first, taxes second, and inflation third. But whatever we think of future coming events, the markets are the ultimate judge, and they will telegraph their concerns loud and clear. Gold has been telling us the world is changing for the last 3 years, and gold usually knows first and best about a changing world. Nice talking to you.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Experience first-hand the unifying power, security, and staying-power of gold#1289152/5/05; 12:35:18">gold 20 franc coins
Liberty HeadRe: Hoosier Goldbug - Social Security Reform#1289162/5/05; 12:40:17

Reform is the gov't code word for failure. When private corps fail, they go out of business, when the gov't fails it reforms, then it reforms again and again and again and again.
I do not think physical gold will qualify under the proposed SS reforms. Keep in mind SS funds must be traceable and taxable. Gold is too slippery in this regard and therein lays its beauty.
Gold is a great asset to hold for retirement, but the gov't does not need to be involved in your retirement plans.
Why on earth would a sane person willingly enter into a contract with the gov't when the gov't can unilaterally renegotiate at will? That's what I call slavery.

Best Wishes

HOOSIER GOLDBUGQUESTIONS?????#1289172/5/05; 13:35:08

Since we already have engaged in a forced contract with the government for our retirement as evidenced by our forced participation in SOCIAL SECURITY since the 1930's, why wouldn't purchasing gold coins in a private program be a possible option since we already are permitted to hold gold coins in our PRIVATE IRA accounts??????? Wouldn't we just need to lobby CONGRESS to make it a viable option of the privatization plan that, correct me if I am wrong, is not set in stone as of yet??? THANKS IN ADVANCE.

TopazHoosier etal re SS.#1289182/5/05; 14:11:09

Here in OZ we've had privatized SS (or as we call it "Superannuation") for 20+ years. The last 10 has seen a surge in inputs due to legislative changes favourable to the "Industry".
Currently, an AU$ amount equal to the total weekly wage bill of the Country is invested into "Super" (read StkMkts) roughly EVERY TWO MONTHS!
The linked Chart gives an indication of the relative strength of OZ SnP200 vis your SnP500. Now in a classic Chicken/Egg, our economy is humming along nicely and outperforming pretty well everything.
Re Gold Coins, there is an avenue whereby we OZ's can "invest" our Super in PGiP but it requires establishment of a "self-managed" SS account.
The e-cost is $1K and ongoing approx the same pa,(auditing and whatnot)...but it CAN be done!

Hope this helps.

Chris PowellIMF promises to keep scaring gold market right through April#12891902/05/05; 14:47:03

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Chris PowellGreenspan's 1981 essay confirms government's interest in controlling gold price#12892002/05/05; 14:48:22

Otherwise, the gold price might put
some restraint on the government.

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spotlightUS and IMF gold reserves#12892102/05/05; 15:06:24

With gold selling over the decades at much higher multiples of the 40 dollarish value than the US and the IMF have placed on it, the question arises: why have they chosen to drastically undervalue gold? Should the US, for example, mark US gold to market, the huge overweight in gold to foreign currency may show that we favor gold as an asset above all else.

My question is: What other motive could there be for the undervaluation?

collies_99Gold price need a catalyst.#12892202/05/05; 15:09:45

There are talk of closing Fannie and Freddie, will this be the catalyst tha coukld propel gold aboe 500?

"Receivership is a valuable thing," Patrick Lawler, chief economist of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, told a forum about Fannie Mae (FNM: news, chart, profile) and Freddie Mac (FRE: news, chart, profile) on Thursday. ..."

Any thoughts ?

R PowellGandolf#12892302/05/05; 15:26:16

Another thought about the predictive power of goldbug sentiment, has anyone posted a contest guess that's lower than spot is now?
happy weekend + GO Patriots!

Clink!Social Security#12892402/05/05; 15:40:45

While I have my doubts, I am hoping that some bright spark might realise and suggest to Congress that there are already a bunch of different retirement accounts in existance which individuals can use to prepare for their future - that's why they are called IRAs, after all ! The only change needed would be to adjust numbers in the existing framework, by juggling payroll tax and income tax percentages. This would cost far less than any new scheme (and have the advantage that it could go into a gold IRA !) but unfortunately lacks the political excitement of a REFORM.
To be a little more positive, I think that it is great that the issue is being seriously debated now - people might actually get off their duffs and look into what their future holds for them - but it's a shame they started on the relatively minor issue of SS and not the real elephant - healthcare.

Smeagol$$$$$ 415.9 $$$$$#12892502/05/05; 15:44:17

O, that wonderful braying comes once again to our ears, precious! It's the Contesst Horn! (capering) A chance to win more of It!

We reads the USAGOLD forum when we can... every few days or sooner... that is, until Master let the Inter-net dial-up expire. Ssss!... we missed a Contesst, we did, and a great many other things beside, ach!... and then we found out JUSST HOW MUCH this excellent Table Round and its Posters, ALL of you, had come to mean to us, yess even to poor Smeagol... it is as if all the current economic and political Gold-related "ore" is constantly being processed and "high-graded" (is that the term they uses, eh, precious?) and laid out here as a banquet... a feast as good as Precious! We agrees with Sir Slingshot in hoping one day to actually meet some of you fine folks... perhaps after It goes "to da Moon!"? (grin)

My worth is quite small,
yet I walk with Giants tall,
for our wealth is Gold.


"Well, Smeagol, I can have Gandalf undo the DSL and put us back on the dial-up, if you want? No? I didn't think so, ha ha!" - F. Baggins

[p.s. On a serious note, never EVER let government become a partner in your metallic savings! Think on this, long and critically - GOVERNMENT DOES NOT PHYSICALLY EXIST. It is an agreement, a belief concept in a group of people's minds. A warm body (or group) is solely responsible for every so-called "government" act. The phrase "the government is doing (this or that)" as if it was a tangible entity is a perfect cover for the someBODY(ies) behind that vague, grandiose curtain who is actually pulling those levers (ALWAYS in your best interest? Why do most automatically think so?) Do those people know you? Very likely, NO!! Involving your metallic savings affairs with government is akin to broadcasting the exact location of those same metallic savings to all, unknown and sundry, and maybe worse!

BTW, thank you, MK and TC, for opening the forum on an limited experimental basis to political thought - it being unavoidably tied to Gold, and a minefield to be sure, but no pain, no gain.]

SmeagolReason for leaving?#12892602/05/05; 16:08:37, GE and Halliburton are "winding down" their business as they say, in the Iran-country, eh, precious? We guesses they are quietly stepping out before the bombing begins...


CoBra(too)G7 - and Snowman's Flu#12892702/05/05; 16:22:39

The absence of any kind of resume' will be construed as positive - at least for the short term - for the fate of the $.

It may also be construed as positive for the $ that John, the Snow(man) was incapicitated, or better indisposed by the most common and understandable of reasons the common Winter - now maybe China - flu to participate in these ever more impo(r)tent meetings.

Condi's flitting all over the place certainly will make up for the in-flu-enca-ed cancelling of Snow's participation.

Well, huh, we've been snowed in kind'a heavily over the last few weeks and and years respectively; The danger of avalanches doesn't have to become systemic in the Alps and global by sending more Snow ...

Gee, the Seven seem lost in practical self-delusion ... A practice of surrendering to their chosen fate to prolong a deal, which was called and ended by 1971. A deal, where the IMF and WB reigned supreme in support of the $. A deal, which has caused more poverty in developing ad poor countries than any re-valuation of the IMF's Gold - which really isn't its property - may ever reconcile.

... 'Nough said, and after a week of begnign to good economic reports of the BLS of the US - I'm happy to retire to a sunny, freezing weekend with enough of the white snow to last (me) for a while....


PS: Congrats to the US guys winning the world championship downhill in Bormio - Bode Miller and Daron Ralhves!

TownCrierSpotlight, on gold undervaluation#12892802/05/05; 16:30:38

As a starting point we must recognize that the U.S. (and IMF) low gold valuations are a legacy of the prevailing valuations when the ledgers were penciled three decades ago.

Why has so little change occurred since then?

The shortest possible answer regarding a motive to maintain the low valuation is a basic desire to maintain an illusion of the status quo (from over thirty years ago!) of the dollar as paramount currency. Resistance to write up the market value of gold assets is an attempt to turn a blind eye to the true story that gold is trying to show.

During the intervening years so many derivative hedges have been written to bridge the gap between the dollar's illusion and the actual reality that the derivatives themselves have become largely responsible for the maintenance of the illusion. Consequently they are themselves also vulnerable to collapse from the reverberating shock of any firm reality check (like a hockey player checked into the boards) because, as you know, to stand the test of time any bridge needs to have its abutments on BOTH sides firmly grounded in reality. But here we see the dollar side is only elaborately suspended in cloud.

The motivations on the cloudy dollar side is therefore simply to maintain the status quo and avoid any reality checks such as fiddling with the old gold valuations.

Conversely, the euro-system CAN allow gold to blurt out its truths (eventually) because as a fashionably late newcomer the euro had time to read the lay of the land and built its house on the golden bedrock side of everything. As a global participant, however, the euro-system does have an interest in ensuring the least possible disruptive collapse of the shoddy bridgework because it affects the economic health of so many of their fellow participants, especially us.

When the economic landform shifts and the bridges are torn apart, the euro will not rise relative to the upthrusted gold, but more importantly, neither will it be demolished by it. That alone will be heralded as a worthy accomplishment, and it will surely prosper afterwards as the most sizeable of the few currency systems still standing.

But why settle for merely survival when you can position yourself better to enjoy the thrill ride of the tectonic uplift? Dig your footings along the cheap golden valley today and likely someday you'll be able to look out to discover you are in command of a mountaintop view of the world. Choose gold -- undervalued today, "unavailable" tomorrow.


Federal_ReservesCRITICAL JUNCTION FOR GOLD FOLKS! #12892902/05/05; 16:40:06


You don't have to have a major in Elliot Wave to see the 5 wave correction in GOLD since the Dec highs... Looks like GOLD is in the final 5th wave move down from that top, and its nearing its 200 DMA at around 410. This is also the the support on the long term weekly trendline connecting all of the prior bottoms since the big double bottom held in 2001!

FOLKS stay on the alert. We want this area to HOLD!

Remember, for gold to prosper the management of our nation must be irresponsible and weak. This pass weak, Bush said he would hold the line and spending, and Greenspan said the trade deficit would fall. Is this BS or real policy change.... Be on the lookout for responsible actions being taken in Washington DC as this would not be good for gold prices.

YGMR Powell...POG Contest and Lower Guess...#12893002/05/05; 16:41:40

I had planned to do so but will wait until contest end draws near, so if I were to win w/ a corrective POG guess I can be long gone w/ my booty afore the Hobbits can catch my trail...I do have a # in mind and it would rile my Castle bretheren....I think the Powers that be, in control of Anti-Money have their foot on the accelerator and will not be thwarted for some time...Hope I'm wrong...YGM
Liberty HeadHoosier Goldbug #12893102/05/05; 18:07:56

Why would you want to lobby Congress for permission to have someone else hold YOUR gold? There is no shortage of folks who will gladly hold your gold as it is. I want for the people to control the gov't, not visa versa. Don't you?

I agree with you that we are in a forced situation with Soc. Sec. and should make the most of it. To me that means not feeding the beast sitting on my chest and sucking the life out of me. I would rather raise a fuss, squirm around, bite, kick, hit and spit at it any way I can.

Buy Gold.
Keep it in your possession.
Let the gov't to go eat ----.

Best Wishes

HOOSIER GOLDBUGRETIREMENT PLANS!!#12893202/05/05; 18:30:03

For your information, someone else holds my GOLD COINS in my GOLD-IRA, I think it is some church trust outfit!!!!! Someone else holds my intangible money (STOCKS, BONDS, CDS, ETC.) in my SEP-IRA-MERRILL LYNCH!!!!!! The government, USA, holds my payroll taxes for my SOCIAL SECURITY future benefit!!!!! Within the scope of SOCIAL SECURITY and IRA retirement accounts, someone else is ALWAYS holding the money or coins or whatever!!!! I do not see any other way around this stipulation within the scope of legally formed and held retirement accounts. I am totally confused by your line of thinking!!!!!!! Could you please clarify your position??? THANKS IN ADVANCE

Liberty HeadHoosier Goldbug#12893302/05/05; 19:00:25

You are correct that much of our earnings are taken from us and put in the "care" of others. As the gov't would have us believe, all out of a deep heart felt compassion and a superior knowledge of what is in our countries best interrest.

If someone else has your gold, you have a piece of paper.
How is that any different from any of the other pieces of paper you get in exchange for your wealth? Is an IOU for gold better than an IOU for dollars? Perhaps, perhaps not.
In either case you are still at the mercy of those who wish only to eat you.

Best Wishes

R PowellFederal -Reserves#12893402/05/05; 20:47:58

A question if I may, about that Elliot Wave system. If also applied to the US dollar index and the Euro, does the wavers see the dollar again turning down (and the Euro up) at the same time that gold bottoms? I follow may E-wavers opinions elsewhere and have never known them to be in agreement, even among themselves, but I'm always curious. Hopefully, the "open forum" weekend format allows some trading questions along with the political discussions.
Also, what does Elliot predict for the metal of the moon, silver?

So many had been bearish on the dollar that it did not surprise me when it bounced up but, once that contrarian move is digested, maybe the fundamentals of too many dollars and too much debt will once again take the buck down...? In the absence of some temporary investor-sentiment originated influence, markets tend to look for direction from the old invisible hand. Sometimes this takes time. Fundamentals eventually direct prices, no?

As for the government becoming suddenly fiscally responsible...I don't see how. Wars and "bread and circus" politics require deficit spending. I believe the government's (Bush) attention is focused on its policy of spreading democratic forms of government abroad, whether wanted or not, (or whether in conflict with centuries old cultural and religious beliefs or not) in keeping with Bush's outlook that this is somehow the one and only true form of legitimate government. I believe he sees this issue in pretty much black and white, "good" or "evil", for us or against us, terms which leave little chance for compromise or social evolution which often takes more time than forced military intervention. Bush believes this policy is more important than any monetary issues. I'm making no moral or ethical judgment, here, just my observations (opinion) of the situation which does not add up to spending less but more, much more! Goodby strong dollar, despite all the claptrap...local or G7 or elsewhere.
happy weekend!

Ten BearsPolitics Economics and Science#12893502/05/05; 21:25:14

Politics Economics and Science

Hans Schicht posts infrequently, but when he does, his words deserve careful attention (3 Feb 2005, most recent post.)

As far as I know, his current post is the first to discuss science.

A few voices from the past in support of his economic contentions; and another voice from the recent past in support of his scientific theory:

Justice Felix Frankfurter, "The real rulers in Washington are invisible and exercise power from behind the scenes."

Franklin Roosevelt, "The real truth of the matter is, as you and I know, that a financial element in the large centers has owned the government ever since the days of Andrew Jackson."
Baron M.A. Rothschild wrote, "Give me control over a nation's currency and I care not who makes its laws."
Woodrow Wilson, "There is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive, …few speak of it"

John Rockefeller," I want to own nothing and control everything."
Currently the banking cartel and their client financial corporations produce nothing and control everything.

Alfred Einstein, "Compound interest is the most powerful force in the universe."

Perhaps over time, compound interest becomes the most powerful destructive force, as suggested by Schicht.

I find it remarkable that an apparent disproportional number of people, who in their early careers worked in scientific fields, find the study of macro economics in general, and monetary systems in particular, fascinating topics of study in their old age. Schicht may illustrate that tendency in reverse.

In the science portion of his post, Schicht appears to suggest that Einstein's theory of relatively has conceptual errors.

There are those of us who have long suspected that Einstein,( like Aristotelian scientists before Galileo, who had the math of planetary motion correct but the concept… the universe revolving around the earth… wrong), has confused the apparent speed of light with the actual effect of "time distance".

A few notes from a copyrighted 2001 paper titled, "Einstein's relativity and Aristotle's Earth centered spherical universe" :

"There can be no time without motion, and no motion without time."
"Light and electronic waves are, for lack of a better word, instantaneous. The apparent speed of light is the actual measure of time over distance in a universe in motion."

"No two physical bodies can exist in exactly the same time."

"A single beam of light exists simultaneously in more than one time."

Einstein's" time stands still for an object reaching the speed of light relative to time on a stationary object "- becomes- " An object moving at the apparent speed of light (if that were possible) would exist in more than one time.

The paper was written while working on a patent for a gyroscopic device, and contemplating unexpected experimental results.

Ten Bears
Thanks to Sir M.K. for an open posting weekend.

melda laureChina GFMS, and Ag.#12893602/06/05; 02:03:20

Sir Cometose, If i might ask you a question regarding your post of 1.12.04 #115155. You might have seen Mr Morgan's recent comments about china and Ag. As we all know, GFMS (and others) have alleged that all the Ag, supply at the margin is being supplied by china - or from chinese sources. Ignoring, for the moment, his stock promoting activities let me pose to you a question that struck me a day ago:

IF there really is a chinese NRRA (national resource reserve area), THEN is it rational for them to develop it if they have so much metal as GFMS and others would have us belive?

I could easily belive that government cronies just found an easy way to line their pockets with a few millions, and certainly the china aviation incident must give one pause. Yet something tells me that the essence of Morgan's revelations are quite plain. Though for all that, I doubt not that a new "mystery supplier" will be conjoured up, at least until the supply of hoarded Potosi dries up so completely that the spell detonates like Barad Dur. Then will the shining stars sing of valinor, doubtless Hugo Salinas will find that a "pretty song".

Topazfurther Clink-Hoosier etal re SS.#12893702/06/05; 02:25:48

Interesting background given the 20 odd Yr antipodean experience I referred to earlier.
Don't be too surprised to hear how successful OZ has been in implementing the Model... not in those words of course;-)

BelgianIMF - gold#12893802/06/05; 02:54:22

- The IMF will "study" (?) the "use" (?) of its goldreserves to....yadayada.
- R. Rato has stated that he (?) will bring forward "proposals" (?) (in april), covering the Fund's gold....yadayada.

Note how carefully chosen the wordings are and the conditionally tone. STUDY THE USE OF GOLDRESERVES (3,217 tonnes) !!!

Monsieur Rato, has already been studied need to waste your time on any new studies.
Nice to hear that you even suggest a "timing" for your "proposals" (april). But I thought that the final "decisions" on debtrelief were expected to be taken already in march ?
What do you suspect (smell) here, dearest forumers ? Please note, that in Euroland, except for perfide Albion, where the IMF debtrelief subject is covered,...GOLD IS NOT MENTIONED AT ALL !!!

masSo who says what when matters for the moment????#12893902/06/05; 03:45:09

Last month Greenspan warned the rest of the world about Americas problems out in the open. Friday we have this...
Go figure? When will the rest of the world stop supporting the US trade deficit which also by the way pays for their military campaigns in Iraq and next month Iran?

Point one… one article....
more sanguine view on the current account deficit than he's taken for some time," said Robert Sinche, head of currency strategy at Bank of America in New York.

"He's taking a longer-term view, laying out a set of conditions under which the current account deficit can improve this year and next," Sinche said.

Greenspan made his comments at a conference in London hosted by the British Treasury. His speech sent the dollar roaring back after it had earlier tumbled on the back of a softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report.

Late afternoon in New York, the euro (EUR) was down 0.8 percent at $1.2872 more than a cent and a half down from its session high hit immediately after the U.S. employment data.

Point two… another article, same day.
Some of the world's major central bankers warned the United States on Friday that the international community could be running out of patience with the massive U.S. budget and trade deficits that have pushed the dollar lower and increased the cost of their exports in America.

But U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said before the official opening of the Group of Seven finance ministers meeting that factors including the weaker dollar and tougher budget discipline in Congress may finally start to restrain the growth of the trade gap.

America's own campaign to push China to untie its currency from the dollar as quickly as possible appeared to make little headway.

European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet said at a conference of business leaders and government officials that it was unacceptable for developed countries to run long-term current account deficits.

"The industrialized world as a whole is in deficit, there is a current account deficit, and there is no offsetting of the U.S. current account deficit by the other industrialized countries," Trichet said.

"That of course means that we are structurally asking the rest of the world to finance us. ... It doesn't seem to me that this is an acceptable and sustainable long-term feature of the present functioning of the global economy."

HOOSIER GOLDBUGTHANKS!#12894002/06/05; 04:45:49

Liberty Head, Topaz, and all others!
Thanks for your insights and contributions!
We would better off if we just did it all on our own with regards to retirement accounts and did not have to participate in the PROGRAMS!

Belgian@mas#12894102/06/05; 07:34:37

When "Greenspan-ism" is hyped with such an overwhelming gusto, in front of the general public...something very fundamental is going very, VERY wrong ! This doom-picture gets confirmated more strongly with an ever higher frequency of contradictionary statements via the controlled media. Panic soccer.
*Intuitively* and subconsciously, a growing part of the general public starts to smell the odor of paradoxal doom. The financial industry will not be able to hide the rot (rotting) for ever and one day.

When I see/hear Kudlow/Cramer, "glorify" A. Greenspan right before his London G7-speech followed by the instant reaction, in the right (desired) direction, of the financial fraternity...I conclude (again) >>> piramidal collusion on an enormous, unprecedented, scale. And these relative small events are only the visible ones.
The general public is intuitively realising that the whole financial piramidal system (stocks, bonds, currencies) IS fragile and vulnarable !

The Giants of this planet, must have known this already some time ago. Included those who profit from the existing situation. This will and shall be translated into significant I think that the goldprice cannot be allowed to explode for the time being, because the financial system realizes that the goldprice cannot be brought down again, after this particular lift off !!! This time, it is much different than in the '71-'80 rise >>>'80-'99 fall, of the goldprice.
Greenspan-ism is a last and final chapter of an aging system. The privatization efforts of social security as a whole is more an act of desperation rather than a change for the good. When the state-system is broke...they tell you to take care of yourself !!! We already found out how to do it and more importantly WHY we should do it with "goldmetal" in possession.

Is gold...a speculation, a gamble, an investment, an insurance, a reserve...or is it simply wealth !? Maybe a suggestion for a next contest : What is gold ?

SundeckSnowman, Greenspan and the Dollar - Condi, Iran and Oil - IMF gold#12894202/06/05; 07:43:39

CoBra(too), Belgian, MK, et al.,

G7 and the Dollar

Prior to the Bush State-of-the-Union address, the Euroworld were praying out loud for a more "stable" dollar. Their prayers were answered by some clever rhetoric in the SOTU speech (eg. social security commitments being addressed) and by Greenspan's convoluted FED-speak, which seems to have been universally interpreted by the financial pundits as "the deficits are likely to start mending themselves soon". Of course no such thing is likely to happen. But, given the credibility of the speakers, rhetoric alone was enough to keep the Dollar on its temporary upward trend (helped a bit by 1/4 of one percent IR hike). The two greatest men in the world having spoken, it was too risky having the 329,000,000th greatest man in the world (Snow) go to the G7 meeting (where the clamour was likely to be dollar-centred) and "defend" the dollar still further. Hence, perhaps he was "asked" to conveniently get the flue...

Iran and Oil

Meanwhile, Condi has wasted no time in stamping her feet in her new role as Secretary of State…diplomatic aplomb is not in Condi's suite (sweet??) of skills… So far, at least, she has indicated that there is no need, as yet, to break the Iran egg to make a bigger democratic omelette in the Middle East… My, my…such diplomacy…sort of like Jack Straw coming out and blurting that Britain has no plans, as yet, to attack the USA…I am truly fearful with this 500-pound gorilla blundering around amongst the pylons beneath the wobbly world. Thank heavens that we currently have a very experienced and competent batch of leaders across the major part of the sphere. Perhaps Condi will tone down her rhetoric, but the past does not augur well.

It is hard to know what plans the US administration may have for Iran (and other oil-rich) provinces...but my nagging suspicion is that the Bush "oiligarchy" knows better than just about anyone else the state of the Saudi Arabian oil-fields. They HAVE to move before Gharwar runs water… ‘Twill be interesting to see what alliances appear along the way. China and Japan (both heavily dependent upon ME oil) are amassing/preserving their bargaining chips (pegged currency, enormous dollar reserves, "willingness" to fund US deficits and keeping US IR low). Meanwhile, in the UK, Tony B.liar, having perjured himself in front of the nation once over Iraq, must be wondering where his personal nightmare is going to end. Perhaps he may live to be remembered as the great PM who took the UK to war (even on a lie) to secure reliable energy supplies for the nation (through the US alliance and control of the ME oilfields), as the North Sea fields continue their inexorable decline…

IMF gold

Assuming that the IMF members still have title to their gold deposits, it is hard to see there being any support for gold sales, but perhaps a lot of support for gold revaluations. After all, if you had an asset in your family bank account that the bank one day decided to revalue upwards about eight-times ($53 - $424 say), and offset that revised valuation against your mortgage, what would be your answer? The alternative, selling, is not nearly so attractive as that may depress the market for gold considerably (in the short term); which would be bad news all round!

Why is Gordon Brown pressing the IMF gold issue? Good question Sir MK. There is something funny going on here…there is also something funny going on in gold lease rates – just about lowest ever, and 1M to 1Y rates all squashed tightly together near zero…as if NOONE wants to borrow gold anymore (knowing that they will have to pay it back in kind). Curious…

Off for some zzzzz


BelgianGOLD IS BACK ! (timesofmalta)#12894302/06/05; 08:02:30

Malta's (EU) *** gold-revaluation *** story...

HOOSIER GOLDBUGFOR WHAT IT'S WORTH!!!!#12894402/06/05; 08:44:29

I am a residential real estate appraiser and about two years ago a bigtime U.S. lender contacted me about doing work directly from them, directly and not through an appraisal service company. They were coming out with a new product, a ten year adjustable mortgage, based on the LIBOR rate in England, with NO principal for ten years. Being in INDIANA, I proclaimed that the product would not work in the ten counties I cover because in the RED colored (conservative) ten counties of Southern Indiana where debts are paid off and no one will rent from you, the lender, for ten years ans owe the same outstanding balance. I questioned their position in this scheme, for if the real estate bubble bursts and property values slide 25%, you would own the entire lending portfolio. He, the lender, countered that I should not get a bad attitude about the propduct, because looking at the amortization schedule on a 30 year fixed mortgage, very little principal is actually being paid. He also said that their bank was predicting that property values would double by 2013 as evidenced by the numbers for M3, and that those dollars would have to go somewhere and that real estate would be one of the benfactors. He also said the U.S. stock market would be at/between 30,000 and 40,000. Somebody thinks hyperinflation is coming soon, within ten years.
MKHoosier Goldbug#12894502/06/05; 09:32:57

FWIW, I agree with that analysis. As a matter of fact that has been the state of affairs in the U.S. economy since 1971 - when we went on the pure fiat money system. This is the nature of the fiat money system now in place, and until it fails what your banker friend was outlining to you is the reality with which we are dealing. The value of your home could triple from here. The value of your mortgage reduce by the same. Stocks could be at 30,000 and gold in four figures - all functions of monetary inflation.

We own gold against the day that this flawed system might fail. Ultimately, human institutions and creations are flawed. They are subject to deterioration, then decline, then dissolution and collapse. This that mimics similar processes in the natural order is part of the human condition.

When I decided to go into the gold business, I discussed the decision with a good friend who did the analysis for the investment division of a large trust. He was further along the carreer trajectory than I was and had quite a bit of experience under his belt (including a thorough study and understanding of the financial markets).

"Well, Mike, there will always be a market for gold, " he said.

The preceding explains why he might have said that. My friend's statement has always stuck with me.

Aside. . . .

Went to the Indy 500 this past Memorial Day. I have family in Indianapolis. What a thrill - especially when they hit the accelerator for the start of the race and the first time they thunder en masse around the track at full speed.

R Powellmelda laure // silver from China#12894602/06/05; 09:55:42

Good question. Just how much silver does China have to export?

I've no idea but can add some information. The reclaimation (recycling) of silver from used film and other sources has reportedly moved to China as has so much other labor intense manufacturing. China has a plentiful supply of cheaper labor and easier to comply with environmental laws. Silver reclaimation is dirty business. This newly claimed silver is being used, again in China, to produce new film, another industry that is now centered in China and has been for some time. Supposedly, with this relatively new source, there is now some yearly excess mining production which we may be seeing as this GFMS reported export.

As always seems the case with silver numbers, I can not verify any of this theory. Considering what I've recently read about Chinese growth, I doubt if they will have an excess of any commodity (natural resource) in the near future. Jim Rogers has published a new book titled "Hot Commodities" in which he devotes a whole chapter to the growth he has observed over the years from his six visits through China. They are now buying (and have been) huge amounts of steel, iron ore, oil, copper, lead, and soybeans along with other needed materials.

If anyone else has any information on silver exports from China, please share!

GoldiloxGold consumption spurts for the first time in 4 years: WGC#12894902/06/05; 10:29:53


LONDON: Global gold consumption grew for the first time in ’04 as economic growth in India, the US and China spurred and investors sought to hedge against a declining dollar, the World Gold Council said.

Consumption grew as much as 8%, to 2,725 tonnes, and compared with 2,524 tonnes in ’03, after three years of decline, said Moaz Barakat, MD for the industry group for the Middle East, Turkey and Pakistan funded by gold mining companies.

"More wealth in places like India and China generated a feel-good factor, and encouraged people to buy," Barakat said in Dubai. Demand in India, the world's top gold consumer rose the fastest in six years.

Prices have climbed 6% over the past year, reaching a 16-year high in December, as the dollar dropped 4% against a basket of six major currencies amid widening US trade and budget deficits.

As gold is priced in dollars, it tends to gain when the US currency drops, as investors purchase the metal to hedge against declines in US assets.

India's economy grew at the fastest pace in 15 years in the 12 months to March 31, ’04, at 8.5%, according to government data. Only China grew faster among the world's 20 biggest economies.

Demand for gold in Saudi Arabia, the world's fifth-largest consumer of the metal, also rose for the first year in four as record oil revenue boosted wealth.

"People had a lot of money and they didn't know what do with it," Barakat said. Saudi Arabians also bought more gold to hedge against the declining US currency, and because they thought gold prices might go higher, Barakat said.

MKReuters attempts to spin the G-7 result to Gordon Brown's advantage#12895002/06/05; 10:43:55

I have reviewed much of what has come out of the G-7 conference so Katie Allen's report (2/05/05, linked above) under the Reuters banner was read with open eyes. The article, as suggested by its headline - "G7 Mulls IMF Gold Sales to Help Poor" - is slanted to lead the reader to believe that the G7 wants to sell its gold and much of that is based on the statements of IMF managing director Rodrigo Rato. But Rato in his interview (as reported by Reuters 2/04/04) was very careful to hedge his original comments saying that "he was not providing his opinion on whether the IMF should sell gold to finance a debt relief plan." He also said, in his capacity as the IMF's managing director, that "there were clear ways to sell gold effectively, IF IMF SHAREHOLDERS DECIDE TO PROCEED." (The emphasis is mine.) To my knowledge there was no other interview of Mr. Rato in which he was more supportive of the Gordon Brown proposal than stated here.

Clearly, Mr. Rato is trying to play the role of the good managing director ready to carry out the will of his shareholders. If the shareholders wish to sell the institution's gold, he is ready to do his job and get it sold in an orderly fashion. However, his willingness to perform his job should not be mistaken for advocating sales. For Reuters to take those statements and attempt to spin them into some sort of IMF endorsement of sales comes off as advocacy journalism of the worst sort.

Obviously, for whatever reason Reuters and the Exchequer aim to keep the gold market on its heels. One has to ask the question: To what end? Why not just drop the subject? Why stay in hot pursuit of IMF gold sales phantoms?

In the end, the U.S. has de facto veto power in the IMF, as Reuters points out, with 18+% voting share. The U.S. Treasury Department has adamantly stated that it has no love for Gordon Brown's third world debt rescue plan. So, as it stands right now, there's no chance of gold sales between now and the spring meeting (when Gordon Brown is sure to be back with this proposal), and there isn't much chance of sales after that, though I am sure this is not the last time we will see the mainstream financial press stumping for IMF gold sales.

No matter how much Reuters would like to rewrite this past weekend's events, the results the G-7 meetings were a clear defeat for the Chancellor of the Exchequer. The U.S. is not going along with his scheme and, though that might be a bitter pill for the Chancellor to swallow, it doesn't alter the reality. To the contrary, most reasonable individuals would assume that the book is closed on the subject. The fact that Brown was able to work the mention of gold into the final communiqué (reworking Rato's statement to his advantage) is a shallow victory at best. As we Americans say: He was thrown a bone. The IMF can prepare for sales (one wonders how diligent those preparations will be). That doesn't mean they are going to occur.

As a final note, I would like to add that in years gone by, we who own gold and advocate ownership for others would have had to sit back and just take it all in when gold's opponents took to the media to advance an anti-gold agenda. In essence, our side in most instances was kept from airing the opposing view or found it buried at the bottom of the page. Now with the advent of the internet, we have the opportunity to respond to this sort of story directly, and that response is likely to get wide play. The public is now getting both sides of the gold story, not just the one the mainstream press wants it to see.

That, in my estimation, has been a major factor in gold's rise since Mr. Brown's last foray into the gold market in 1999. Since those days four years ago, and the ill-advised Bank of England auctions, gold has risen approximately 60% outpacing nearly every other asset class. When you blend into the equation the opportunity cost shouldered by the Bank of England via its dollar investments, the total loss from selling its gold is substantial.

Maybe, in the end, that is why the U.S. Treasury Department is opposed to the sales. Perhaps it understands that the asset might be better utilized than to relegate it with similar results to a financial markets version of a garage sale -- an embarrassing deja vu that we would all be better served by avoiding. What Mr. Brown should have realized the last time around is that once the asset is gone, it is simply gone, and in the case of gold probably irretrievable.

How much better off would the Bank of England been today had the "portfolio managers" there simply held on to Britain's gold? Instead they opted for bonds denominated in U.S. dollars. Belgian's posting on Malta's gold story is a case in point - a success story for institutionally held gold.

I will post again the words spoken in Parliament by Sir Henry Tapsell, 1999:

"The whole point about gold, and the quality that makes it so special and almost mystical in its appeal, is that it is universal, eternal and almost indestructible. The Minister will agree that it is also beautiful. The most enduring brand slogan of all time is, 'As good as gold.' The scientists can clone sheep, and may soon be able to clone humans, but they are still a long way from being able to clone gold, although they have been trying to do so for 10,000 years. The Chancellor may think that he has discovered a new Labour version of the alchemist's stone, but his dollars, yen and euros will not always glitter in a storm and they will never be mistaken for gold."

Note: The original Reuters story quoting Rodrigo Rato is at the following link:

It is important to see his comments in their original context.

ShapurSilver china --- China silver#12895102/06/05; 11:13:20

1. PAAS chief, Ross Beatty, has documented the silver exports from China pretty accurately over the years. Those exports were to have been exhausted--or supposedly so, in 2004. It seems that chinese silver was helping to keep the lid on the silver market over the past 4 years.

2. David Morgan, another silver market guru. More or less concurs that silver suppply from China seems to be waning. He has travelled to china and has seen a grass roots effort in China to rekindle Silver Mining in the country.

3. If China needs copper, tin, iron ore, steel, bauxite, nickle, and every other commodity under the sun for their Lion-like economy why would silver be the exception???

4. Jim Rodgers was recently interviewed by Jim Puplava over the weekend---NOT ONE MENTION OF SILVER. Jim will talk up lead or zinc, but he won't say a word about silver or when asked about gold his eyes hit the floor as he says,"sure, I own a liitle gold, but look at lead, its up some gigundo %".

5. SILVER IS THE PLACE TO BE---too many questions and no answers---DOES SILVER HAVE ANY FRIENDS??? Who will admit to be a friend of silver?

Silver---one ounce is too many, 1000 ounces is not enough!

Cavan Man@MK (RE: IMF Gold and the sorry Brits)#12895202/06/05; 12:34:39

Perhaps the US Treasury sees a role for physical gold in global monetary affairs; perhaps even as a strategem to avoid the loss of reserve status for their dollar. The reserve staus issue is where the rubber hits the road; that's the ball you DON'T take your eye off of IMHO. I remember asking the mysterious gentleman from cyberspace what might the US contingency plan be (with regards the EURO paradigm as presented)? Although I have no confidence in the minions of government, the people employed by the government are not totally bereft of intellignece! FOA never gave me a reasonable answer. In fact, I don't think he had one. We live in a world upside down. Absolutely no occurrence should surprise anyone. For the US government to go public in favor of gold playing an obvious role in world monetary affairs at this juncture would be, in my opinion, the logical and rational choice.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.We are large enough to serve you with unsurpassed quality, and small enough to care!#12895302/06/05; 12:50:43">gold -- a global calling card

POG CONTEST UPDATE as of Sunday 2/6/05 13:00 Denver time !
$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ spikedog (02/04/05; 22:50:22MT - msg#: 128898)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 11:27:26MT - msg#: 128871)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck (02/04/05; 17:10:03MT - msg#: 128888)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (02/04/05; 16:52:40MT - msg#: 128886)

$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ lifer (02/04/05; 15:22:20MT - msg#: 128883)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ slingshot (02/04/05; 15:35:11MT - msg#: 128885)

$$$$ $415.9 $$$$ Smeagol (02/05/05; 15:44:17MT - msg#: 128925)


AND -- In case you missed the CALL TO CONTEST ----

Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 10:53:55MT - msg#: 128869)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the April COMEX contract (GCJ05) on Wednesday, February 16, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, February 13th.

The "Price of Gold" (POG) Contest winner -- the person with the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a nineteenth Century 20 Lira Italian Umberto I coin, (which may be seen at the following LINK).
These coins were Minted between 1880 - 1897 with a Fineness of 0.900, which therefore contains an "Actual Gold Content" of 0.1867 net fine troy ounces of pure GOLD !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2005 Gold Contract (GCJ05) on the date of Wednesday, February 16, 2005.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $421.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $421.0 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! "FIRST COME" has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Sunday, February 13, 2005.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY--- (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will be REQUIRED to answer the DIFFICULT and controversial subject by "Determining and COMPLETING the following statement": <;-)

I read the USAGOLD Forum ( how often? ) because ------ (in 25 words or more!).

LET the CONTEST continue !
"COME ON IN" all you Lurkers ! Now is the time to get your Posting Code from the TownCrier at the Link at the top of this PAGE !

GoldendomeA nuclear Iran?#12895502/06/05; 14:16:25

The U.S. is apparently taking a wait and see attitude presently towards Iran. According to Sec. of State Rice, the U.S. will give negotiations between Europe and Iran regarding the nuclear issue some time to succeed or fail in their opinion, before taking possible action against Iran. Given the previous attack on Iraq and the unfavorable world opinion that generated for the U.s., my feeling is that the Israelis (they have a history in the region for this sort of thing) might be up for the action, with the U.s. holding their coat with logistical support.

I find myself divided on the issue. On the one hand, I see a sovereign nation's right to decide that it wants to develop a nuclear power industry. I wish that we had not abandoned our own nuclear power industry after the Three Mile Island incident. The simple fact that Iran, at this point has oil to burn, is no good reason for them not to develop nuclear power for their nation if they have the means to do so. ------On the other hand, the U.S. administration (rightly or wrongly) sees the nuclear power industry reasoning pointed to by Iran as a ruse, designed to hide it's true intentions of developing nuclear weapons. Thereby, threatening it's neighbors in the region; something that we (the U.S.) have said we will not allow. On the surface Iran's gaining "the bomb" appears a scary thought.

Since WW2 however, many nations have gained nuclear weapons; many right there in the region surrounding Iran. [can we see reason for their paranoia?] Pakistan, India, Russia, and Israel come to mind. To date, all of these nations have been extremely careful not to use them; knowing the possible consequences for their own people. A few nations, and I can think of some, France, Japan, and the United States come to mind, went beyond the weaponry, to develop nuclear power for the good reasons. Should the criteria now for nuclear power development depend solely upon a countries good relations with the United States? And if so, what other foreign policy issues boil down to the either with us or against us mantra, worthy of attack? --Oil for Euros, yen, or yuan? Selling U.s. bonds? or dollars en mass--amounting to a financial attack?

Unfortunately, a bitter truth appears to be gaining recognition; the best way to deter possible future attack from anyone (U.S. included) is to possess nuclear weapons. Look at the little mouse that recently roared: North Korea. After acknowledging that they had in fact developed the bomb and threatening to turn neighboring countries into fiery hell holes of death should they be attacked, the U.S. backed way off! Lessons learned. Has anyone heard strident language in the past year from the U.S. or anyone else threatening the North Koreans should they not knuckle under?

If we look on a map of the Middle East, we find that Iran is three times the physical size of Iraq with a population at least double Iraq's. It has oil, and regardless of administration confidence that this nation like Iraq has a dissatisfied population looking for regime change; it will have an irate population likely to galvanize internally if attacked from the outside.

Just how far down the road of remaking the world in our own image are we prepared to travel? How long before more of the world views the United States as the problem? Forcing democracy at the point of a gun. Will the nations of the world come to view the people that repeatedly traveled aboad in the twentieth century to free the world from tyranny--as now the tyrants? At some point, taking action, even subconsciously, to subdue us where most vulnerable--in the financial and oil markets? These are some questions that I find myself pondering.

Thanks for the open forum time period, to ask some of these questions aloud, indirectly related to gold and the currencies.

R PowellShapur#12895602/06/05; 14:19:20

Jim Puplava has, in the past, advocated the physical ownership of both gold and silver. As for Jim Rogers, he also does not mention silver in his new book, "Hot Commodities". I'm almost through it and have enjoyed it immensely so far. He talks briefly about some commodities and presents a fairly accurate (imho) view of those, although not in depth and with only a superficial, long term point of view, probably necessary when remembering that time elaspses between the work's completion and its finished publication. A book can not be updated as easily as can daily, weekly or even monthly advisories. However, he repeatedly states that his investments are made almost entirely upon an evaluation of supply and demand. He is a true fundamental, long term position investor.

Rogers does mention gold and is fairly favorable towards it but states that he sees a greater return potential in some other markets. It's not that he does not like gold, just that he sees more potential elsewhere. But...he mentions that he holds a percentage of his wealth in gold and already has bought more, for his young daugther.

He also compares investing in commodities as opposed to stocks and bonds, pointing out that, in his opinion, commodity investment is no more difficult or mysterious than owning equities. One chapter gives a brief description of how commodities are traded. IMO it is nowhere near enough information on which to venture into these markets but, Mr. Rogers doesn't claim that it is, nor does the book intend to be so. He does touch upon the issue of leverage but does not (again, imho) emphasize enough the inherent danger of holding positions, that can move against the investor, on such tight margin. Then again, not being in that situation (somewhat underfunded that is) maybe the danger is not as readily apparent to him..?

Overall, and especially for the information and insights offered on China, I'm most happy to have bought the book. I read with my usual small plastic ruler and a pen for underlining. I just underlined the chapter heading on China as it will all be worth rereading many times...or, at least until it sinks into my thick head. Although Jim Rogers offers not one word on silver, I'll confess to being a friend of silver, if, by that, you mean one who believes silver is undervalued in dollar terms. I own phyiscal and have gone up and down with paper investments since the POS was around $4.00.

Lastly, to anyone who does read this book, I advise to pay special attention to the chapter on coffee. All of the information is truthful to the best of my knowledge and some information that is conspicuously absent (both past and current) from his limited presentation is also very bullish toward the long term. As always, just one man's opinion.

adminOpen Forum#1289572/6/05; 16:21:58

Every week. Friday 12 noon to Sunday 12 noon FST (Forum Standard Time)

Thank you for your participation.

CoBra(too)Leaving the IMF, WB et al on the sidelines ...#1289582/6/05; 17:07:28

and not even pretending to have read the last couple of days posts diligently;
Instead having used the the weekend to debate these issues with a recently retired US career diplomat and a friend for more than 30 years visiting with us.
The eventual outcome of the (un-)diplomacy of the GWB neocon policies on global issues in particular including issues of economics, reserve currency and overall indebtness is not a question of "if", but a question of "when"!

That, IMHO, has always been my stance and still is - namely, the collapse of the USA in any economic or other sense will also bring down the rest of the globe. It will eventually come - oh, it may come sooner by accident - though, by any measure it will be brutal. Brutal to the US and potentially even more brutal to the rest of the globe.

Even if that goes against the grain of "scholars" of A/FOA, a fact I've more than once stated I'd rather stick to my beliefs more than ever. Todays EU and its piddling € is here by the grace of an extremely generous Marshall Plan, devised for the benefit of "West-Europeans" to have a chance to survive their communist neighbors. The Western Part even had the protection of the US military might and against, what most European politicians are preaching now -
it was not devised for economic gains. - Just like the global Tsunami aid today - the Marshal Plan was devised to overcome the brown tide of destruction of Tsunami proportions in the world.

In the end - even if we find the neocon admin in the US not at all to our liking; We still have mountains of debts to pay off towards the Americans. Americans, who have proven to be more than friends over tumultous years of our own history and always came to our rescue.

Ok; Now we feel they're taking back their share and overspend by "virtue" of a hegemonial reserve status ... Great, we condemn them right away; Though it was only a generation ago they still were the biggest creditor on the globe.

OK; I guess, all of the above is beside the point as gold is still the ultimate value - and even if financial companies have outgrown their wellcome as a percentage on on the S&P and so have energy companies in the 70's ... who's to say real production never comes back?

... Before Kontratieff, the old Irish Monks have found out about "market" cycles ...

cb2, personally has found out that some physical works wonders for sound sleep at night and a bit of diversification is an additive spice to keep and alderly guy young...

PS: The G7 resume' was pars pro toto ... better a little bit of bitching for nothing. The (in-)fluencaed and missing Snow-job-man has done his best to stay home and not mention the litany ... the market is taking care of its own idiots ... sometimes.

Also read my friend's J.Turk's. s.t. $ essay ....

YGMCobra....Par Excellent Post Sir..#1289592/6/05; 17:20:59

I only wish you had more time to carry forth that train of thought on a regular basis...YGM
MKCBII -- On the historic one-two finish in the downhill#1289602/6/05; 18:24:05

We're just trying to give the Austrians a little competition, CB. As for the One-ski routine -- Bode learned that one from Rahlves and then did him one better.
2023$$$$ $407.10 $$$$#1289612/6/05; 23:18:03

I will go ahead and post the lowball price guess so far. The US peso may continue its upward run based on govt hot air for another couple of weeks so I think the price of the yellow metal will not rally for a bit. So I'll pick $407.10

I tune into this discussion about twice a day, if time permits, as I think the group at USAGold are some of the sharpest dudes on the planet. Great posts by Belgian, Sundeck, others this weekend on G7, G Brown, Condi/Iran, etc.
Many, many thanks to all who make this site possible. I applaud you!

TopazWorth keeping an eye on.#1289622/7/05; 01:02:40

Feb (current) Vol/OI could get interesting if it becomes apparent the IMF Gold is not slated for sale.

BPoG = 349.93

BelgianThis silent forum....#1289632/7/05; 08:38:09

....Knows very well that "Peak Oil" comes closer ('08-'10) and that the Western demographic clock is ticking !
This means that our "CAPITAL BASIS" is eroding ...faster and faster ! This silent forum knows there are only two possible ways out of this...GOLD or seeking refuge in spirituality >-:-< .

OvSHoly Smoke.#12896402/07/05; 09:03:34

So it's either Midas Belgian
or St.Belgian...but...
No but. Alternative insights
can't be discussed on a public
Well, find me a cave, with
plenty of hard firewood, many
barrels of a decent wine,
comraderie, a bit of music and
keen minds...and gold and cabal
and the electronic new world
can go to hell...OvS

OvSGold & Silver#12896502/07/05; 09:36:29

Given the new silver reality
(inventory, supply & demand)
it doesn't make sense to treat
silver as a monetary metal any
I think those responsible to
manage its price are oldtimers,
transfixed upon yesterdays
It would make much more sense
to have silver trade like
Rhodium, Platinum or Palladium.
Gold, of course, is the great
standby to prop up the financial
world's house of cards to trans-
fix that illusion into something
real. OvS

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Experience first-hand the unifying power, security, and staying-power of gold#12896602/07/05; 10:23:29">gold 20 franc coins
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...#12896702/07/05; 10:27:36

Q. In your book, The ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership you start the chapter by saying "Who you do business with is one of the most important aspects of gold investing." Why is that?

MK. Most, if not all, of the progress an investor makes towards realizing his or her goals with respect to gold ownership hinges on that relationship. Unbiased, objective advice from one's gold advisor is a key element. So are market information and education. Pricing, product selection, fulfillment and on-going support also rely on that relationship. Above all, it is extremely important for gold buyers to match their objectives with the type of gold they buy. Positive results in all of those areas depend upon a strong relationship with a gold firm. That is why it is important to spend some time finding the right one.

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

MK. The biggest trap investors fall into is buying a gold investment that bears little or no relationship to his or her objectives. Take safe haven investors for example. That group makes up 90% of our clientele, and probably a good 75% of the current physical gold market. Most often the safe-haven investors simply want to add gold coins to their portfolio mix, but by the time they finish talking with a typical national firm, they might end up in a leveraged gold position, exotic rare coins, or being diverted into silver or platinum. Others drift into gold stocks or gold futures which in reality are proxies for real gold ownership and could actually act opposite the intent of the investor. There's nothing wrong with any of these non-physical investments per se, it's just that none of them is really a safe-haven. The investor should bear this in mind. The question investors must always answer for themselves is "How will this investment serve me should the economy or financial markets suffer a major disruption?"

ororeefDiplomacy = Bribery#12896802/07/05; 10:29:04

The first thing Condy does is give away 40 mil,is that diplomacy or bribery ?I said the other day she's going to get her pocket picked.I thought the Europeans would get to her first,but seems like the Palestineans will set the pace and the rest will size her up to see how much shes good for.
Irak is failing 'so maybe mid east will divert attention.
Rummy says troops are under stress and recruits are down !
That tells me Irak is headed for cival war.
Bush says no to Gold sales.It what he doesent say thats dangerous.Will we BUY gold from IMF ?That means we pay for it with Bonds (debt).!
Dear Condy: Go back home you are not needed to make peace,they can do it without you.The only reason they want you there is to pick your pocket. Go Home !!You are not as smart as you think you are !

TownCrierEU reminded Turkey of Cyprus condition for talks…#12896902/07/05; 11:03:04

(FXstreet) -- The European Commission and Cyprus reminded Turkey that she must extend her customs union with the EU to include the partitioned island before it could begin membership talks with the bloc as planned on October 3rd, 2005.

Asked what would happen if Turkey did not sign the protocol, senior European Commission official Jean-Christophe Filori told that if the delay was a result of political resistance in Turkey, it would be a problem and the negotiations would not start.

Meanwhile, Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, aware of the high stakes involved, said that there would be no delay in signing the document, though he had given no specific date. He added, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that he would never want to extend the process. Filori also said that the EU had no plans to get directly involved in any revived diplomatic drive to reunite Cyprus, saying this would remain the responsibility of the United Nations.

Filori said a framework document establishing the structure for Turkey's accession talks would be ready by June at the latest. However, he declined to say how long he thought the negotiations would last.

^-----(from url)-----^

"Stickless" euro-region political styling -- carrot vs no carrot -- offers an attractive alternative that plays well. (Something about catching more flies with honey than with vinegar).


TownCrierGold seen pressured by IMF sales study#12897002/07/05; 11:34:20

LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Gold fell to a near four-month low on Monday as the market tried to guess what the IMF might say about using its huge gold reserves to help finance debt relief for poor countries.

"Whatever happens the market is going to be disconcerted and on the back foot until the April IMF meetings," UBS Investment Bank Analyst John Reade said.

Under a 1971 agreement, most IMF gold is valued at $40 to $50 an ounce, about a 10th of current market prices.

Analysts said the prospect of outright sales was unlikely due to expected opposition from the United States, which has key voting rights within the IMF.

But the psychological impact of the issue was bearish for the price of gold.

"There will be revaluation at worst...but the U.S. carries the veto," Barclays Capital analyst Kamal Naqvi said.

"We see it as a short-term negative but that's all really. It will be interesting to see what happens but it all depends on how any plan is structured," a London-based fund source said.

^-----(from url)-----^

This is superficial compared to the sales of paper that occur daily and to much less fanfare. Think about it. Which type of asset would you rather hold at the end of the day -- a tangible bit of property, or a papery promise?


TownCrierLast week's commentary on IMF gold disposition#12897102/07/05; 11:37:49

Considering some of the whys and wherefores.


TownCrierU.S. has scrapped 30-yr bond issues, however EMU is considering addition of 50-yr issues#12897202/07/05; 11:37:58

LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Ten-year European government bond yields fell to their lowest levels in 20 months and 30-year yields fell to all-time lows on Monday, as long-dated debt gained from flattening trades that have been in vogue in recent months.

...Demand for ultra-long dated debt has proven strong recently with pension funds and insurers bracing for heavier long-term liabilities driven by Europe's ageing population.

Against this background, the French Treasury last week said it was looking at issuing 50-year bonds to tap growing demand from the financial industry for ultra-long maturities.

^-----(from url)-----^

A study in contrast, any way you look at it. The ability of a currency system to successfully float long(est)-term bonds versus the failure of another is perhaps the best signal of which contestent is coming out on top in the battle for supremacy.

The long trudging days of the IMF/dollar system's suppression of gold is nearing the end, with the latest IMF gold-sale rumblings likely being an endgame's cheap gambit.

Use the extra time and artificial bargain price to your advantage.


BelgianPlanted stories and manufactured realities....#12897302/07/05; 12:08:20

So many different identies are speaking/messaging to each other through the public media.
It is now being suggested that the whole debt-forgiviness affair will be studied case by case.
But how can Big debt (first world) forgive Small debt (third world) !? Does debt, any debt... still matters ?

Also under the chapter of stories and realities...Is the dollar really serious about "thighthening" >>>...POO down, dollar up...IRs in check...deficits halved... ? Why is it that monetary and fiscal policies are suddenly going to be changed ? Let's think about this when we see the $-POG slipping and the $ rising. All analysts do refer to Greenspan's speach on friday as to explain the ongoing reactions.

$-POG / $-POO / $ exch. rate, are retracing in (Fibonacci) lockstep. None of the existing major trends will break (imvho). Manufactured realities with planted stories !?

geGary Carmell on interest rates.#12897402/07/05; 12:40:15

He observes that the yield curve is already inverted in the UK, and expects yield curve inversion in the US by year end, with short term yields at 3.5% and 10 year bond yields below 3.5%.

It is said that the inversion of the yield curve predicts recession.

geVera's analysis#12897502/07/05; 12:50:55

She wonders whether the "real hurricane of social movements [that took] place right in the core of the old continent", were Washington controlled or not.

One recalls De Gaulle and 1968, instictively.

MKBelgian: Gold for Treasuries#12897702/07/05; 14:02:52

Here are two of the more interesting takes on the IMF sales I came across this weekend. From an otherwise negative Dow Jones article linked above:

1. "(Since the [Central Bank Gold] accord) the supply side of the story has been positive, with falling production from mines and also from central banks. On a fundamental basis the market is relatively tight, so if that situation was reversed, it would certainly take a bit heat out of market."
Daniel Hynes, ANZ Bank

2. "While details are still shaky, any revaluation may involve countries with low gold reserves, such as Japan and China, swapping a portion of their U.S. Treasurys for gold with IMF shareholder countries at a re-valued price, said CBA commodity strategist David Thurtell."

MK comment: The Thurtell quote raises an interesting prospect. What if any potentital IMF sale turned out to be nothing more than a way to get gold to the Japanese, Chinese, et al in exchange for some of their dollar holdings. Let me take it a step further, what if the Japanese and Chinese have called the bullion banks looking to buy and threw a scare into them. Why do I call it "a scare?" Because the reality is that there is a shortage as Mr. Hynes points out above. Consider for a moment what would happen to the price of gold if it got out that Japan and China were in the market. I'll make one more comment and then let this go for the time being. I believe that if the IMF were serious about ridding itself of its golden burden they could make two telephone calls and be rid of it immediately without fanfare -- one to Japan, the other to China. No need to worry about stretching the sales out, or injuring the "fragile" gold market. It could all be done seamlessly. Just transfer it all to Japan and China and they will end up with the beginnings of a world class gold reserve reflecting their successes in the economic arena.

Federal_ReservesIncompetence#12897802/07/05; 14:04:36,5744,12170246%255E2703,00.html

Amazing to hear our New Sec State bark out orders and commands to Russia. She lectured them like they were students in a classroom! Amazing arrogance.

Mass incompetence in the Administration now, in Foreign Affairs, Fiscal Statemenship, Trade, Law Enforcement (immigration, anti-trust).

To call this budget "lean" is ridiculous. Maybe "mean" for impact on the poor, whose programs are being chopped, whose jobs are being outsourced; but not the rich who are still lapping up huge tax cuts during a time of war!

Spending is out of control relative to taxation; and taxation is now becoming regressive.

MKBelgian & All. . .#12897902/07/05; 14:09:43

I should have added to my post below that this sort of conjecture is interesting to say the least, but the odds on result is still that there will be no sales or revaluation of the IMF due to the U.S.' opposition.
TownCrier"how can Big debt (first world) forgive Small debt (third world) !?"#12898002/07/05; 14:13:12

That's a cool drink of water!

Big debt (first world) can ignore the strict rules for itself, and concessions are given to the little debt players only as necessary to keep them in and playing the game in service to the masters. Once the little ones (third world, individuals) fall out of service from hopelessness or destruction, the big debt first world has lost is power of control and the reason for keeping up the game. "MONOPOLY" has no incentive for you to keep rolling the dice and stacking the Chance cards when the others have bailed out leaving you as the only token on the board.

The players with hotels will give the little ones as much paper as can still buy them a little hope to stay in and have another try at a trip around the board. To be sure, the legitimate $200 all the little ones "mine" each time they pass the "GO" square does not stay in their hands for long. "Give us your tires, your ore, your barrelled molasses... because you owe us dearly for keeping you in the game."

As an individual, you can choose gold and not be so easily controlled by your would-be debt-fuelled controllers.


DryWasher@Belgian ( msg#: 128963), and All.#12898102/07/05; 14:59:42

Sir Belgian wrote:

"This silent forum....Knows very well that "Peak Oil" comes closer ('08-'10) and that the Western demographic clock is ticking !
This means that our "CAPITAL BASIS" is eroding ...faster and faster ! This silent forum knows there are only two possible ways out of this...GOLD or seeking refuge in spirituality >-:-< .".

May I respectfully suggest that Both Gold and Spirituality are in order. (Big Grin Sir).

In my opinion, "Peak Oil" is the baby elephant in the room which the politicians and press are trying to ignore in hopes that it will somehow just go away, but which will grow over the coming years to become a full grown giant raging bull elephant that will dominate financial events and our very lives in ways we have yet to fully comprehend.

Clearly this forum is NOT the place to discuss "Peak Oil" because such discussions would rapidly spin out of control and lead us away from our topic of "Gold and Economics", although it is also clear that "Peak Oil" will have a major impact on financial markets, and on the need to invest in gold.

The above link is to a group of peak oil forums which I have found where such discussions are welcomed, and where you will find a wide verity of opinions on how it will all play out, and on how to prepare.

As I see it, holding physical Gold, in your possession, is an important part of preparing for the troubled times ahead, however they may play out, and I thank you Sir Belgian for your always insightful contributions to this forum.

On Social Security personal accounts, I wonder what impact "Peak Oil" will have on expected yields? Ouch.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#12898202/07/05; 15:13:10">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Monday Market Excerpts

U.S. gold futures closed at a near-four-month low Monday, depressed by a weaker euro and uncertainty about what the International Monetary Fund may do regarding possible sales or a revaluation of its gold holdings.

COMEX April gold futures fell 50 cents to $415.40. On a closing basis, it was the contract's lowest since Sept. 27.

Dealers said a blend of fund long liquidation and stop-loss selling pulled prices lower, although bargain hunting at lower levels and physical demand for gold, particularly from Southeast Asia, have given support to the market.

Finance chiefs from the Group of Seven industrialized nations who met in London this weekend said IMF Managing Director Rodrigo Rato would look at proposals to revalue or sell gold reserves.

The IMF, which will report back in April on debt relief, is the world's third-biggest holder of gold bullion, with more than 100 million ounces.

Under a 1971 agreement, most IMF gold is valued at $40 to $50 an ounce, about a 10th of current market prices.

The prospect of outright sales was unlikely due to expected opposition from the United States, which has key voting rights within the IMF, traders and analysts said.

After the weekend G7 meeting produced no change in foreign exchange policies, markets barely reacted to U.S. President George W. Bush's budget proposal for fiscal 2006.

Bush forecast a fall in the budget deficit to $251 billion by fiscal 2008 -- excluding costs of war and Social Security.

That would be down to 1.7 percent of gross domestic product, from 3.6 percent in fiscal 2004.

-----(see url for access to full news, 24-hr international newswire)---


Argentine stocks rise to new high, peso flat

Chile stocks hit record high as economy booms

Dollar at year's high as deficit concerns abate for now

Dollar, IMF Push Gold Near 4-Month Low

White House budget assumes steady economic growth

Fretting about inflation

Belgian@ MK#12898302/07/05; 15:17:10

I stick to the stealth "re-distribution" theory and any gold stash (has been) will be used to resort maximum effects with as little loss of control (leverage) as possible.
Exploit the minimum amount of gold for extended dollar-use return. Point simply is, to hide this particular gold-dollar connection, wich is in everybody's interest and as always...for the time being.

Certainly, a lot of gold has been mobilized for this purpose, in the past decade. The fact that the IMF's 3,210 tonnes are coming on the surface again, is a sign ...evidence...that the dollar is slowly running out of supportive (willing) gold. The remaining gold is buying less and less time. Might be one of the main reasons that a propaganda offensive (dollar sanitation) has started (is needed)? Pourvu que sa dure (for as long as it lasts).

G. Brown serves as the perfect cover up for this ongoing maneuvering. But that's another story, of course.

Keep this IMF / gold-thing on your watchlist, Sir MK.

If the dollar doesn't allow the goldprice to float...the dollar must provide metal !

TownCrierAre these valid exclusions?#12898402/07/05; 15:20:47

From the DMR --- "Bush forecast a fall in the budget deficit to $251 billion by fiscal 2008 -- excluding costs of war and Social Security."

In keeping with that liberal style of presentation, I have a few other announcements to make.

I can fly -- excluding the detail that I can't get off the ground.

I am a millionaire -- exluding the prerequisite of a million dollars.

There is no problem with our global trade balances -- except for the obvious ones.

etc, etc...


Belgian@ DryWasher#12898502/07/05; 15:41:03

"Peak oil" is OK to be brought into the public. As long as this peak oil talk is NOT related to the dollar or/and gold ! In other words, oil-talk is fine but talk about the "real" oil-policies are a delicate matter of national security. In analogy with this, is gold for debt-relief being OK, whilst the real gold-policies are also a matter of national security and must remain for the internal kitchen.
I'm sure you know how the real elephant looks like. :-)..(-:

masMK (all), question.#12898602/07/05; 15:42:12

Who owns the IMF gold? Wasn't it 3700 tons? If I saw my gold being controlled by the IMF and I wanted it "freed" how would I do this with out creating any disturbance? Seems to me the EU has the majority of the gold, maybe they want to bring it "home". (Before someone sells it!).
Maybe G Brown was working for free gold all along? Where did all the gold he sold end up?
I think there is more to this than just the news paper verbage.

TownCrierIMF Gold Sale Talk To Weigh On Market#12898702/07/05; 16:17:13

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)-- excerpts:

...many in the industry are doubtful the plan, endorsed by U.K.
Chancellor of Exchequer Gordon Brown, among others, can proceed. Barriers include the expected five to 10 years it would take for a
controlled selloff; the negative impact additional supply would have on poor,
gold-producing countries such as Mali and Indonesia...

Re-valuing its gold to reflect market prices would allow the IMF to write
off some of the $11 billion owed to it by poorer countries with minimal net
impact on its books.

For some, this would amount to little more than an accounting gimmick. For others,
however, revaluation would be a first logical step to test the market's

For the time being, ...the IMF proposal is all about market sentiment, players say, and are one of
the factors currently holding the yellow metal around three-and-a-half-month

^-------(from DowJones article)-----^

Although I have edited out a lot of garbage from a lengthly article filled with ill-informed sources, even in what remains there is much to ridicule.

Most laughable is the concern "the negative impact additional supply (from IMF sales) would have on poor, gold-producing countries such as Mali and Indonesia".

If nobody has been overly concerned about the negative price-impact that dumping massive virtual tonnage of paper gold into the market has had on these countries for all these years, why should they suddenly worry about any additional impact from the potential selling of no more than 3200 REAL tonnes?

As MK has already said, those 3,200 real tonnes could be gobbled up in a flash, as they are a superior asset to the alternative, promissory gold, which is not sufficiently counter-correlated with dollars to achieve effective risk abeyance during times of market crisis and chaos.

The price of gold is low because much of it is only paper, and the market doesn't currently make the distinction when quoting a price. But you can. Choose real gold for as long as it flows at the papergold price.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial for consultation on a diversification strategy that's right for you.


CoBra(too)The IMF's Gold - A Recurring Topic#12898802/07/05; 16:57:18

Just a few thoughts off the cuff. We've had this IMF gold revaluation a/o sale for debt relief of the poorest countries for recurring from time to time.

In the last instance it was the US Tsy. itself voting against such a move. After all the gold still belongs to IMF's members and the US has -if my recollection is somewhat correct - about 37% of the vote - no idea if that's equal to its gold share, though!

I'm always a bit stunned by the (also) recurring theme debt relief for the poorest. Why are these guys in this untenable situation to begin with? Mostly these countries have some natural resources of interest to have qualified for IMF loans in first place. To subject yourself to such loans has been the origin of their real troubles. Even formerly rich countries, like Argentinia, Venuzuela and even SAfrica amongst many others felt the heat; Or is it really black mail?

The simple question to ask is - who in hell is the most indebted country today? Well, there you are; It is the country of the consumer of last resort- used to be IMF's ruse to be the lender of last resort - which by now may well be the international C.B's cartel of fiat money creators lending their crisp new cyber currency to the IMF,
WB and any takers willing to prolong charade.

... And the charade will be prolonged, external shocks notwithstanding - see LTCM - as long as the major perpetrators, usurers, blackmailers see a chance to hang on for another day.

Wondering, who really got the gold and even wondering more if the IMF member's gold is still an issue, not already obligated by the PTB?

SundeckIMF gold-talk is not affecting gold price, IMO.#12898902/07/05; 17:57:30

Here's why…

Looking at the relationship between the USDX and the spot POG since early 2001, for the period up to about the end of 2003, the best linear fit to the scattered data is represented by the line:

P = -3.65 * D + 709

Where P = the POG and D is the USDX.

Over the last year or so (you can take it from me) we have seen the POG lying consistently above this line of best fit…by as much as $30-40, but typically by about $10-15. The reason for this is probably mostly due to: (a) Japanese intervention to weaken the Yen, and support the dollar, so that over the last year or so the USDX has been held higher than it should have been (remember, the Yen has the second largest weighting in the USDX after the Euro), (b) a general increase in the "investment" interest in gold from a variety of sources, and (c) a gradual drying up of gold sources from falling new mine production, reduced leasing and mining-company hedge-book reductions.

At the moment, with the USDX at about 85, the POG still lies above the 2001-2003 trend-line by about $15. It is as if the "strength" of the US dollar, measured against other assets (currencies in this case) is the predominant "driver" of the POG and that things like "talk of CB sales" or "talk of IMF sales and/or revaluations" are really having very little affect.

Lease Rates.

Looking at a chart of the long-term gold lease rates (at Kitco, for example), we note that the trend in lease-rates since mid-2001 has been a gradual, definite and almost unbroken decline to the present approximately 0.15%, with very little spread now between the 1, 3, 6 or 12-month rates. This indicates to me that one should be able to borrow gold for a song and not even a dance as well.

There would surely be few places where one could raise funds at this cost. Why aren't people borrowing gold for all they are worth, selling it and investing in damned near anything (real-estate, shares, commodities)??? Ok, I can understand folks in the US being a bit wary, because gold has been rising in US-dollars and the risk of having to buy-back gold in the future to repay the loan is perhaps no longer to Americans’ liking…but what about Euroland, where gold in Euros has been pretty stable; or in the Ozzie dollar, or SA Rand…???

Is it because no-one is offering gold for lease, or that everyone is very wary of the risks involved, a combination of both, or some other reason????



Black Blade"The Lull Before The Storm" - Puplava#12899002/07/05; 20:27:53

An interesting run down on everything from bonds and real estate bubbles in tonights Market Wrapup (see link). Nice to be prepared.

- Black Blade

Black BladeDollar to drop, twin deficits could grow#12899102/07/05; 20:33:16


U.S. dollar will lose value over time, warns former Treasury Secretary Rubin. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said on Friday he believed the U.S. twin deficits could get worse and that the conventional view was that the dollar would decline over time.

Black Blade: The former Treasury Sec. and current exec. at Citigroup is finally catching on. Sure took him a long time though. Meanwhile as always, the best course of action is to get defensive by getting outta debt and staying outta debt, stash enough emergency cash for household expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver "portfolio insurance". and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

TownCrierSundeck, "Why aren't people borrowing gold for all they are worth...?"#12899202/07/05; 20:34:16

Maybe it is simply as has been postulated previously -- bullion banking operations are being wound down, "headed toward mothballs".

NM Rothchild and Sons surely didn't just decide to get out (and formally resign its LBMA member December 10, 2004) because they viewed the sector to be a GROWTH industry, did they?

When the European central banks signed the first Central Bank Gold Agreement in 1999 and announced a curb on their gold leasing participation a few banks apparently saw the writing on the wall and immediately bricked up the bullion wing of their enterprises, while still others closed their doors a little later on. Certainly clearing volumes have continued on their steady decline since that time, read into it what you will.

Lease rates as we see them these days may be less a legitimate market-clearing phenomenon and more a feat of institutional window-dressing that makes not but a goodly show for sixpence.


Black BladeGold Seen Pressured by IMF Sales Study#12899302/07/05; 20:39:20


LONDON (Reuters) - Gold fell to a near four-month low on Monday as the market tried to guess what the IMF might say about using its huge gold reserves to help finance debt relief for poor countries.

"Whatever happens the market is going to be disconcerted and on the back foot until the April IMF meetings," UBS Investment Bank Analyst John Reade said. Gold prices hovered around $415-416 an ounce.

Analysts said the prospect of outright sales was unlikely due to expected opposition from the United States, which has key voting rights within the IMF. But the psychological impact of the issue was bearish for the price of gold.

"There will be revaluation at worst...but the U.S. carries the veto," Barclays Capital analyst Kamal Naqvi said.

U.S. Treasury Under Secretary John Taylor said the United States had other plans for alleviating poverty. Asked about using IMF gold stocks, he said: "The United States is not convinced that's the necessary way to do it."

SGCIB economist Stephen Briggs said: "My initial feeling is that this is unlikely to go through because the U.S. is against it -- but you can make a very clear case for saying the gold market is likely to go down even if sales or revaluation don't actually happen."

Black Blade: Pretty much ado about nothing. The proposed plan would do absolutely nothing but put these Third World nations further in debt and even hurt the natural resource industries in those nations. Looks more as if Gordie Brown is only trying to enslave the Third World.

TopazIMF causing PoG "softness" ...HA!#12899402/07/05; 21:10:11

The current downdraft in PoG, starting just prior to the New Year, preceded Dollar strength by a couple of Days.
Curiously, PoG has been STRONGER (relatively) since the IMF prattle not weaker....D-uh!

TopazDollar Bonds.#12899502/07/05; 21:38:25

With the 30Y T Yield now technically underwater and DX @ 85 the Dynamics change somewhat.
A Long-Yield spike here could be sufficient to underpin DX and re-establish 85 as support.
Too much money WILL NOW move to SM's imo, particularly if Oil gives it up!

melda laureTC and the defecit predictions.#12899602/07/05; 22:08:54

We will all be millionaires soon. (as soon as a pint goes for $100 and a bottle of wine goes for $750 (sob! boo hoo hoo!)

The president said the budget defecit would come down.

He did not promise anything about the trade defecit.
He made no promises about the total US debt shrinking either.

Seen in that light he is being perfectly truthful, if not particularly honest.

Perhaps instead of a price guessing contest we should bet on the ratio of the POG/Sp500 or the like.


POG CONTEST UPDATE as of Tuesday 2/8/05 00:01 Denver time !
$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ spikedog (02/04/05; 22:50:22MT - msg#: 128898)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 11:27:26MT - msg#: 128871)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck (02/04/05; 17:10:03MT - msg#: 128888)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (02/04/05; 16:52:40MT - msg#: 128886)

$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ lifer (02/04/05; 15:22:20MT - msg#: 128883)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ slingshot (02/04/05; 15:35:11MT - msg#: 128885)

$$$$ $415.9 $$$$ Smeagol (02/05/05; 15:44:17MT - msg#: 128925)

$$$$ $407.1 $$$$ 2023 (2/6/05; 23:18:03MT - msg#: 128961)


AND -- In case you missed the CALL TO CONTEST ----

Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 10:53:55MT - msg#: 128869)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the April COMEX contract (GCJ05) on Wednesday, February 16, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, February 13th.

The "Price of Gold" (POG) Contest winner -- the person with the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a nineteenth Century 20 Lira Italian Umberto I coin, (which may be seen at the following LINK).
These coins were Minted between 1880 - 1897 with a Fineness of 0.900, which therefore contains an "Actual Gold Content" of 0.1867 net fine troy ounces of pure GOLD !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2005 Gold Contract (GCJ05) on the date of Wednesday, February 16, 2005.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $421.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $421.0 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! "FIRST COME" has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Sunday, February 13, 2005.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY--- (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will be REQUIRED to answer the DIFFICULT and controversial subject by "Determining and COMPLETING the following statement": <;-)

I read the USAGOLD Forum ( how often? ) because ------ (in 25 words or more!).

LET the CONTEST continue !
"COME ON IN" all you Lurkers ! Now is the time to get your Posting Code from the TownCrier at the Link at the top of this PAGE !

DoubleEagle$$$$ 398.0 $$$$#12899802/08/05; 01:09:39

I read the gold forum at at least twice a day, because it's simply the best place to get all the daily gold news, and all the best discussion from the magnificent "riff raff" that frequent this place. Sure, you can go somewhere else, where "professionals" write daily essays, but here, I feel like it's folks like me talking about their favorite subject.

As for my guess, I'm always optimistic in these contests and I always lose, so I'm going to let me natural pessimism take this one. This IMF B.S. has the market spooked, and I think that suits the fiat peddlers just fine. In the end, if another fiat currency gains prominance as the world's reserve currency, it's ok by them, because it's the same song, different color. Gold, all 19.32 g/cm3 of the real thing, is something they don't want anyone looking at as a better currency than what folds in your wallet. They're scared. I'm not. My ounces are accounted for.


YGM$$$$$409.00$$$$$#12899902/08/05; 04:06:16

I always drop into the Castle daily as time permits and when I'm home...Have done so for many years and find the hall usually always has a speaker of worth...Many things of value learned from the wise minds who come and go and those who leave this door open to all...A library of wisdom and insight in an atmosphere of patience and generosity...YGM
YGMThe Bottom?#12900002/08/05; 04:23:31

Personaly I think the Euro will see $1.20/$1.25 and Gold $385.00 before we see the trend reverse again and go the other direction & further than this time around...As I said the Power behind the scenes have their foot on the Accelerator...Next time the Dollar falls it will be hardship for many and Gold will leave others in the dust of complacency....Greenspan opens his mouth @ G-7 and all is well again...Right, why didn't he do so weeks or days before...Plans have time frames and Master Plans have agendas...YGM
NedWhat's happening?#12900102/08/05; 04:54:13

As recently as December Greenspan said the dollar was overvalued, the various deficits were going to kill it. He said that. Every analyst and trader and broker and do-gooder said the bottom was going to fall out of the USD.

Everyone on this forum and every other forum applauded Bush's return; it meant more of the same. Now if I have my timing right it was between Christmas and New Years that the DX reversed and now has risen incredibly.

How is that possible? How could EVERYONE be wrong? What is happening? I really, really don't understand.


YGMNed...#1290022/8/05; 06:04:27

In my opinion the Bankers have to take the wind out of Gold's sails before the Dollar can fall further...I fear this time they'll really try to hammer it down good and hard before letting the Dollar go again....Even $350.00 could be their hope...I don't think they'll pull it off, but they are working it down none the less...Quite a delemma trying to devalue the almighty Dollar and supress Gold at the same time....Gives new meaning to Manipulation and Power...Staying w/ some/more physical should be everyones motto...Gold will win and Paper will lose in the end...YGM
OvSNED#1290032/8/05; 07:09:49

Look again at the 5 yr. chart of gold:
It still looks bullish. If that channel
should be broken, the 10 yr. chart has
a beautiful cup and handle and could
support a bullish outlook even with
much more decline in the price.
And if you look up the dollar charts,
this "incredible" reversal since last
December is a mere hiccup.
This wall of worry is just a mirage;
the only thing to worry about a bit is
some draconian measure and that would
only come into play when things deterio-
rate into chaos, I believe. Cheers. OvS

Merlinsen$$$$$488.50$$$$$#1290042/8/05; 10:00:14

I read the USAGOLD forum 2 or 3 times a day because it helps me to get a better understanding of what is going on. I came to this forum following ANOTHER discovered on another site. I never went back there when I realised the quality of our host,
the quality of the posts, the quality of the posters and the respect they express for each other. I do not post myself because english is my second language and even though I consider myself as functionally bilingual, I lack the ability to find the exact word or nuance often required to express clearly my thoughts. As a former (but still as young as Belgian) CEO of a 10B$+ financial institution with a training in economics, business and finance, I fully share the reading of many here regarding the unique and historic situation of the american dollar and the dangers that lay ahead. I believe that very soon, the price of gold will jump significantly and that will just be the beginning of many assets reevaluation throw out the world. And I beleive that Wednesday, the 15th, it will reach 488.5$ ...


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Don't miss the raffle -- the prizes are nearly 200 yrs old#1290052/8/05; 10:02:31">gold 20 franc coins
968ECB's weekly financial statement.#1290062/8/05; 10:16:17

Gold and gold recievables : minus 81 million euros due to the selling of gold by two Eurosystem Central Banks and a sale of gold coins by another Eurosystem Central Bank (new position 125,477 million euros).

The net foreign currency position remained unchanged at 154,9 billion euros.

The ECB's net foreign currency position (paper) exceeds their gold position by only 23,5%.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.For Valentine's Day. Place your order by 4:00 today. Only TWO remain!!#1290072/8/05; 10:22:33">gold ducat pendants and chain
BelgianCould it be that....#1290082/8/05; 10:26:16

...President Bush wishes to visit the EU + Russia with an apparant strong dollar and mild oilprices in the background !? This, to make the efforts of a trans-atlantic DIPLOMATIC charm-offensive (?) as complete as possible.

Wouldn't be surprised if some evidence for this would surface in one way or another. Thoughts anyone ?

DryWasher$$$$$ $400.0 $$$$$$$#1290092/8/05; 10:57:34

I read the USAGOLD Forum daily, and completely, because of the excellent quality of the information that I find here. Thank you USA GOLD posters, one and all, and thank you Sir MK, Randy, and all for providing this wonderful forum.

The low guess is because I expect TPTB to hold it down for a bit longer. You may indeed be onto something Sir Belgian (msg#: 129008).


TownCrier968, nicely done Eurosystem reserves overview.#1290102/8/05; 11:10:43



Federal_ReservesMore incompetent statements#1290112/8/05; 11:42:25

SHOCKING stupidity, and doublespeak.

Snow not worried about foreign holdings of US debt
Tue Feb 8, 2005 12:27 PM ET
WASHINGTON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - The rising percentage of U.S. debt that is owned by foreigners was not troubling currently, Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Tuesday .
"Not at current levels," Snow answered when asked whether growth in foreign debt owned by foreigners to about 44 percent currently from 30 percent in 2001 was worrisome.

Snow declined to specify what would constitute a worrying level.

"I don't know whether I want to draw a line there and identify any particular level," Snow said. "I don't think it's helpful for me to draw a line and say that anything above that is where the alarm bells go off."

Snow added the United States remained a favored site for foreign investors because it was "the safest, most secure investment in the world" and suggested that would continue.

TownCrierPlaying MONOPOLY, continued.#1290122/8/05; 12:25:20

BAGHDAD, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Iraq has banked $5 billion dollars in an account with the U.S. Federal Reserve, a move that will boost ties with the rest of the financial world and earn it millions in interest income, a U.S. official said on Tuesday.

U.S. Treasury Under Secretary John Taylor said President George W. Bush had issued an executive order in November granting Iraq the right to open the account with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

He said the dollars have been accumulated by the Iraqis since the creation of the new Iraqi dinar, not sold to them by Washington, and stressed the account was an important symbol of Iraq's re-entry into world finance.

"This enables the central bank to earn income on its reserves, of approximately $5 billion, that will be over $100 million a year. That can be used to improve infrastructure," Taylor told a news conference in Baghdad during a brief visit.

^------(from url)-------^

The big controllers of the game would prefer that you not use and spend the bulk of your monetary resources, but rather hand it back over to them, and then limit yourself to spending only the small interest that is doled back to you.

Please think about this in conjunction with yesterday's post (msg#: 128980).

Don't let yourself be so easily controlled. Choose gold.


Gandalf the WhiteWELCOME Sir Merlinsen !! #1290132/8/05; 12:41:40

Merlinsen (2/8/05; 10:00:14MT - msg#: 129004)
WOWSERS !!! I see that you "really are" the Son of Merlin the Magician. Let me complement you on your command of "Angrit", as all the Hobbits can "hear you, loud and clear" !
Please honor us often with you postings.

Gandalf the WhiteOOPS ! <;-(#1290142/8/05; 12:43:05

Please honor us often with YOUR postings !

TownCrierInflation Measures Diverge#1290152/8/05; 13:05:48

When official reports are dubious, trust your own experience.

Paper, or gold? The choice in mixture is yours.


R PowellGE#1290162/8/05; 13:19:49

That yield curve you mentioned yesterday is flattening even more today with the short term rates slightly positive and the 10 and 30 year note yields slightly negative when last I looked. Thanks for keeping an eye on that.

Federal_ReservesMore evidence of incompetence#1290172/8/05; 13:50:08

Snow urges action on a undefined plan.

UPDATE 3-Snow urges quick action on Social Security
Tue Feb 8, 2005 02:25 PM ET
(Recasts first 6 paragraphs, adds quotes)
By Glenn Somerville

WASHINGTON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Tuesday urged Congress to move swiftly on overhauling the Social Security system but many lawmakers were skeptical it is verging on crisis as the Bush administration says.

A hearing before the tax-writing U.S. House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, intended to consider the Bush administration's budget proposals, was dominated by discussion about the White House's wish to amend the government pension plan.

"The sooner you act, the more options are available," Snow said near the end of a three-hour hearing at which several Democratic lawmakers complained they still did not have details of the White House's plan for an overhaul, which would include private savings accounts for younger workers.

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1290182/8/05; 13:51:27">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Tuesday Market Excerpts

A recently higher dollar against the euro, coupled with the prospect of the International Monetary Fund selling bullion from its vast reserves for Third World debt relief, have kept pressure on the yellow metal since last week.

"The dollar started out its day firmer and gold was falling on the back of the same old dollar strength," said David Meger, metals analyst at Alaron Trading. "But it was kind of a technical day. As the euro bounced off its low, the gold market got a little bounce off the 200-day moving average," helping it pare its losses, he added.

"Right now sellers are running the show and momentum is definitely down," said a dealer with a large U.S. investment bank. "But we're approaching numbers where there should be good support and if the dollar turns lower we could easily justify buying heavily in gold," he argued.

COMEX April gold eased $1.10 to $414.30, which was the lowest close for benchmark futures since Sept. 27. "The selling is mostly European, and that is inducing some of the funds in the United States to liquidate," said Frank Aburto at F.C. Stone in New York.

Demand for gold from investors and jewelers in key areas like India and China was expected to return as soon as next week to help shore up prices, albeit at possibly lower levels.

Trade has been thinned this week by Lunar New Year holidays in Asia and by Mardi Gras or Carnival in the Americas.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)---

Moegold$$$$$454.7$$$$$#1290192/8/05; 14:03:53

I read the USAGOLD Forum daily because it helps me prepare for the coming deflation of real money (where prices of things decrease with respect to gold) and the simultaneous inflation of fiat money (where prices increase in dollar terms).
TownCrierCyclical bear market likely for S&P 500 in 2005/06#1290202/8/05; 14:09:26

NEW YORK, February 8 ( – Analysts at Canaccord Capital say that the S&P 500 index is likely to decline to at least the 1,020 mark in 2005/06. The possibility of the index declining to the 1,000 level is high.

^------(from url)------^

If the S&P 500 falls under hard times, how well do you think that might bear up the dollar?

Gold need only gain $41, back to its recently visited $450 range, to give entrants at this point 10 percent gains, consistent with the gains in average annual price for the past three years. (see top note at the Daily Market Report)

Meanwhile, how plausible are similar gains in the S&P when Canaccord Capital ip predicting a bear for Wall Street's dearly beloved? Methinks much inflation (depreciation) of the dollar would be needed to bring about any nominal S&P gains. In that process, foreign investors would likely be net liquidators to cut their forex exposure, making any inflationary-based S&P nominal gains that much harder to realize, and consequently heightening the global appeal of gold as an attractive investment alternative.

Call USAGOLD today for a consultation. A prudently diversified portfolio is a must in this economic environment.


GalearisIs there a bull market, in gold and silver,,,,, really?#1290212/8/05; 14:32:42

I've been out and about visiting old friends lately and thought I would drop in and say hello to USAGOLD. I usually only do this when I have something to say,,,,(and it is obvious that I have not been feeling very verbose lately) so here I am with a missive to deliver. It is in the form of a short letter/essay that I have been sending to various pundits on gold and silver. That's the preamble, and now the meat:

I am taking the liberty of sending this little essay to you. Please be informed that I have sent it to various writers on precious metals with varying results.
About half actually respond to the points raised, and recently an essay by Rusty McDougall was posted on the GATA web site that covered the same theme. I might add that I have been talking to Rusty for two years about this point of view, and am glad to say that Mr McDougall now looks at these markets differently. Most of the other writers that have responded consider the ideas quite appropriate. Both my brother and I have posted items to Bill Murphy and have been published in 'Midas'. My brother is regularly published there and is known as 'Rhody'. For those of you familiar with GATA, the theme of the essay will not be unfamiliar.
The essay is appended below. Any comments would be welcome.

Best regards,

Both my brother and I have talked to many writers about the monetary connection to the gold and silver market and yet most remain blind to how misleading spot/equity price fixations can be. But that (imo) is virtually everyone's blind spot,,,,.

If investors only understood the currency connection, the value/price breakdown to reality would illuminate the flaws in their investment choices and timings.

Let me elaborate. All would see that the rigging of the spot prices serves to bring these in line with currency fluctuations and alignments over the long term,,,,and that, for example with silver, the market has not changed at all except for VOLATILITY. We rather think that looking at the inflation adjusted currency measure of spot prices (and equities) shows the monetary impetus behind these orchestrated price movements that we see now as manipulations. We rather think that the Fed looks at the gold and silver spot price the same way as we do. We rather think that TPTB orchestrating the rises and falls in that market do too.

Please take a minute and think about that.

I do not for one second think that it is too complicated for our metal pundits to start to tell the readership what these spot prices and TRENDS actually mean VALUE-WISE in the so-called big picture.

In other words, TA doesn't work at all except in the short term. It doesn't work in the long term UNLESS the currencies that track the equity unit or commodity unit are a constant value,,,,that there is no inflation - or problems with the USD over the past twenty years or so. These prices most certainly aren't inflation adjusted, never have been, and will be increasingly less so from now on. The long term charts tracking spot prices are useless because the dollars are different sizes. The long term TA charts with their channels drawn on in linear form are fiction. How can they be if one charts a moving object with another moving object?

Ignoring the VALUES of currencies instantly renders using TA an exercise that is fatally flawed. But as everyone seems to be using it,,,,the shortcomings are ignored in an acculturated system of trading. That's pretty serious! And only of value to the people behind the Federal Reserve. TA use simply serves to keep people from noticing currency problems AND is also useful for manipulations of the markets by our monetary institutions.

This is especially noticeable for we Canadians - where the so-called bull markets in gold and silver are even LESS apparent than in the US. We HAVE to look at value,,,and we DO see that gold has been a terrible investment for us. We also bought silver two years ago and in quantity. It is worth LESS now than then. We bought it at USD$4.67. IN USD terms! Do the math. It is cheaper now in inflation adjusted terms than at its lows more than two years ago - even in USD. At its highs it is barely above its average spot price over the past ten years - $5.00. One can do the same exercise with gold.

Everyone is getting royally snookered by keeping their focus on price, and the people may actually think we do have prosperity right along with bread lines if they attend themselves religiously with this focus. In the 1930s the media and those still working called the unemployed hungry lazy and shiftless. I think we will see that again.

Use TA? Nope. Never.

We see the game the Fed etc are playing when they manipulate the market. Where's the bull in the precious metals?

We time our metal buys using the real value method. It is the only way to time buys according to value. It will be a factor too (plus the gold/silver ratio and our own currency VALUE- we have internal inflation just like you folks do.) for timing of the selling. If they get silver down to $6.00 again, I am buying physical hand over fist. That would make silver cheaper in value than EVER.

We DO use TA, however, to monitor what we think the rest of the world will DO,,,,, to the markets.

Our particular method is probably the only realistic way to do this,,,and it sure doesn't require a lot of chart-hopping, hard drive space and expensive add-on services from the internet.

How difficult is it to find the short term value? Since year 2000 when the USD was at 120…it is today (for example) at 84.4 (Feb.6. 05). That means valuing the USD compared to year 2000: 84.4/120=.703 X POG of $415=$291.80. So where's the bull? Note that this figure is just using Forex data,,,,without any additional inflation factored in since year 2000. We maintain that if this is a gold bull market, then it is a mighty poor one when one considers purchasing power of the USD at present. We maintain, even with our using CPI data, as the inflation guage, or the 2.75 fold fall in the USD since 1980 as crude guides, that we have a better understanding of value in the price mechanism than do those focused on spot prices alone.

Please note that when the USD was last at 80 on the Forex, it was still "worth" a great deal more than a modern USD at 80.

Please think about that for a minute.

We also feel that the equities markets would be viewed in an entirely less favourable light than they are at present if USD decline (even on the Forex exchange) was factored into so-called profits. We rather feel that the gold and silver markets would be looked upon in much the same way....and that ultimately the judgement of investors would lead to a conclusion that all these markets are manipulated and that the precious metals are a better investment given the environment where they function. At least the metals have not lost their hedge function.

Best regards, and since I haven't said so recently,,,,you do stellar work on behalf of we metalbugs.


There you have it. Discuss or dismiss; it's (almost)(still) a free country.

Best regards,


DruidWhy is Gordon Brown obsessed with IMF gold?#1290222/8/05; 14:38:18

Druid: YEAH! I think the BIS is putting pressure on some entity or country to come up with some of the shiny or be prepared for a much higher price. Take the pain by either giving up the metal or face a higher price. If I'm not mistaken, I think it was FOA who suggested that a major sign along the trail would be that the Europe faction would eventually separate from the IMF over policy issues. Could this be the beginning of such a dissolution?

A GREAT read by two of our GIANTS. Hopefully, this (our) perspective will start to flourish and gain momentum against the backdrop of typical gold analysis and commentary that you read on other gold sites.

by Michael J. Kosares

I don't completely understand this obsession Gordon Brown has with the IMF gold. Why does he always target gold in his third world debt schemes? He could just as easily call for a multi-nation bond issue or simply ask the various nations for a U.S. Treasuries donation to cover the third world debt.

I'm sorry, but I don't believe for a minute that the chancellor of the exchequer is motivated solely by his concern for Third World indebtedness. I think we all remember that the last time Brown stumped for IMF gold sales, he failed. The IMF opted for revaluation. The result was that the Bank of England let go of a good portion of the British people's gold reserve at cycle low prices. Now Brown is at it again.

What is really behind all this volley and thunder?

In my view Brown's activity now signals the same thing it signaled in 1999 -- the beginning of a major move upward in the gold price.

We should consider one of three possible scenarios:

1. One or more bullion banks are in trouble in London and gold must be found for the British government and central bank to fulfill as lender of last resort. (Brown is simply trying to get ahead of the curve.)


2. This is just another campaign (ala the Andy Smith scenario) in a larger war to keep the bullion banks supplied with enough metal to satisfy the needs of the huge gold carry trade (which goes on longer than I ever anticipated it would) and keep it from going bankrupt.


3. A combination of 1 and 2, in which case Brown sees himself as killing two birds with one stone.

Brown's hope in my view is that he can steamroll gold sales. The talk about revaluation is just camouflage. Many have claimed with some degree of justification that the Bank of England's sales were directed inventory placements -- not sales per se but bailouts camouflaged as sales. Further adding to the mystery surrounding those sales are unanswered questions as to why the Bank of England did not sign the most recent Central Bank Gold Accord in March, 2004.

In a long talk with the USAGOLD sitemaster, Randy Strauss, this afternoon on this subject, he pointed out to me that other members of the IMF might be very happy to receive their gold back in a restitution sales scheme, considering the gold to be of not much use to them sitting at the IMF. Still other members might get it back and be persuaded to sell. Seemingly this is the gold that Brown hopes will end up in the sales and leasing pool.

As a follow-up to the 1999 Central Bank Gold Agreement which did include the UK, the following Agreement was signed March 2004 by all the leading European central banks except the Bank of England:

"In the interest of clarifying their intentions with respect to their gold holdings, the undersigned institutions make the following statement:

1. Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves.

2. The gold sales already decided and to be decided by the undersigned institutions will be achieved through a concerted programme of sales over a period of five years, starting on 27 September 2004, just after the end of the previous agreement. Annual sales will not exceed 500 tons and total sales over this period will not exceed 2,500 tons.

3. Over this period, the signatories to this agreement have agreed that the total amount of their gold leasings and the total amount of their use of gold futures and options will not exceed the amounts prevailing at the date of the signature of the previous agreement.

4. This agreement will be reviewed after five years."

At the time the agreement was penned, UK stated that its justification for not signing this time was that it currently had no plans to sell gold. That excuse doesn't wash because most signatories in the first agreement were not sellers, either. Apparently the United Kingdom wanted some extra wiggle room with respect item #3 -- particularly leasing operations, and that could be the reason why they didn't sign.

As for the London Bullion Market Association, I would not be surprised if this was nothing more than a machination to free up gold to meet the demand requirements being faced by the bullion banks.

This is not meant to be a comprehensive analysis of Brown's recurring obsession with the IMF gold but simply some groundwork to encourage discussion.

I would like to repeat a brilliant statement from the UK's Sir Henry Tapsell, which I have posted here before as well as in our newsletters and in my book, "The ABCs of Gold Investing":

"The whole point about gold, and the quality that makes it so special and almost mystical in its appeal, is that it is universal, eternal, and almost indestructible. The minister will agree that it is also beautiful. The most enduring brand slogan of all time is: 'As good as gold.' The scientists can clone sheep and may soon be able to clone humans but they are still a long way from being able to clone gold, although they have been trying to do so for 10,000 years.

"The chancellor may think that he has discovered a new Labour version of the alchemist's stone, but his dollars, yen, and euros will not always glitter in a storm, and they will never be mistaken for gold."

Tapsell made that statement in 1999, just before the Bank of England let go of Britain's gold at cyclically low prices ($250 to $300). My question is: What happens if Brown runs into a wall this time? What if the verdict is no sales, no revaluation. Then where will the price of gold go?

By the way, the chancellor Tapsell referred to was Gordon Brown.

DruidSales, Revaluations, and the Disposition of IMF Gold#1290232/8/05; 14:43:31

Druid: My apologies TC.

By Randy Strauss

Sales, Revaluations, and the Disposition of IMF Gold
By Randy Strauss

The last time British Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown seriously agitated for IMF gold sales under the banner of debt relief for poor countries was in the early spring of the eventful year of 1999.

When IMF sales were not forthcoming, suddenly the UK itself announced that summer that it would be a gold seller. I don't recall that a direct correlation was trumpeted at that time between those sales and debt relief, so I was always left with a suspicion that a London-centered bullion banking lifeboat operation was more than likely the hushed motivation behind it all.

Those few prestigious London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) banking institutions of the City of London are, after all, perhaps the only banking operations still vulnerable to an actual bank run. Dealing in bullion, they are unlike commercial banks in the sense that they do not have similar recourse to an inexhaustible lender of last resort, and therefore must go begging for any manner of help such as they may find in times of shortage. In response to a liquidity squeeze a central bank can provide paper without limit to regular banks to preserve solvency, whereas the provision of gold deposits to bullion banks are ultimately curbed by physical limits and may come up too short to win the day.

As those surprise UK sales swept the gold market to 20-year lows in mid-1999, it was significant to see the European central banks rally together and respond quickly with their market-supportive Central Bank Gold Agreement by the end of summer.

Interestingly, by the end of the year the IMF finally gave a nod to Brown's earlier notion of debt relief, but the IMF did it through off-market gold revaluations, thus setting a bit of precedent and keeping the book closed on actual sales that would have drawn down IMF physical gold reserves.

With Brown agitating again for IMF gold operations (sales or revaluations) under the banner of debt relief six years after his initial appeal, one has to wonder: Is he truly the world's leading humanitarian, or is there another angle?

If debt relief is the legitimate reason for the clamor, 1999 precedent suggests that revaluation would be the more likely course of policy action.

But if we see what seems to me to be the less likely event -- if actual sales of IMF gold are selected by the necessary 85 percent majority of IMF voting power -- I would tend to interpret it as a sign that various IMF members (e.g., France, Germany, and others) are simply wanting their gold back. This precedent of behavior was last seen in the mechanism of the restitution sales of the late 1970s when several member countries bought back some of their original gold deposits from the IMF.

With the Chancellor's drive clearly suggesting gold sales as an alternative to the established precedent of IMF gold revaluation, and having so recently sold half of the gold of Her Majesty's Treasury, the UK itself may figure prominently among the countries that would like their gold back. This is especially true if the Bank of England anticipates that future lifeboat and liquidity operations may be necessary as the LBMA's business heads toward mothballs, a phenomenon which is legitimately suggested by ever-shrinking clearing volumes demonstrated over the past eight years.

Publicly reported clearing turnover in London-centered bullion banking operations during that span of time has been withering. From average daily levels exceeding 1,200 tonnes of gold cleared per day it has fallen to less than 500 tonnes per day in present business. Typically banks rely on growth (inflation) to ensure liquidity and solvency, and yet here we see this unique sector of banking is staring into a very real and formidable contraction. One wonders what their various gold depositors might now be thinking.

Viewed from that angle, the two new gold Exchange Traded Funds introduced on the New York and American stock exchanges may be just part of a long train of devices to preserve institutional liquidity, as they are always uniquely vulnerable to demands for physical deposits and consequences of insolvency.

BelgianManufactured realities....#1290242/8/05; 15:00:17

Saudi Arabia will drastically increase oil output and N. Irak (Kirkuk) is exporting oil again ??? ST and LT IRs act as to indicate recession ??? Dow and dollar-index stopped to diverge and all of a sudden rise in tandem ??? And Snow almost suggested that the dollar is as good (safer/safer) as gold...
Cisco's figures "must" produce a positive reaction . And the media already picture a new era of peace in Israel. And Madame Condoleeza goes shopping in Paris.
Nice feel good show ! Message to the entire world : THE DOLLAR IS BACK ! Do we know better, dearest fellow forumers ?

Belgian@ Galearis#1290252/8/05; 15:15:17

What were the answers (reactions) on your conclusion ? Please, let us know.
Bedtime for me.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Compare current test of trend support with that of 1/03 on the graph.#1290262/8/05; 15:47:10">5-yr gold chart
R PowellUSAGold // CPM #1290272/8/05; 16:11:26

Thanks for the chart but can we also please have some explanations to go with it?
What is that line at $412.77?
Also, what am I looking for to compare to 1/03?

I'm sure what I'm missing is obvious to most but I'd rather ask a simple question than miss something.

R PowellCorrection#1290282/8/05; 16:14:16

Make that $412.58.
TownCrierthe graph#1290292/8/05; 16:41:33

Blue horizontal line represents the present market price, expressed as $/oz on the left and $/kilo on the right.

Comparison with the 1/2003 region of the graph provides a historical reference for a degree of price retracement from highs to support within a rising channel that could be viewed as no cause for alarm and very likely a particularly opportune entry or expansion point.


CoBra(too)@ TC and Rich#12903002/08/05; 17:22:17

Orlandini's charts for gold in his essay tell the real story - At least vs the US $ - Hoping not to get the flac here it is to be found ...

... You've got to love the comparison of s.t. daily to smoothed out longer term monthly graphs. Love my handle on the cup!

KiloGalearis - Missing the forest for the trees....#12903102/08/05; 17:35:29

Or in your example, perhaps just the opposite ? I concur completely with your thoughts, knowing all too well that many fail to take into account the many facets of "pricing" or "profits" where the PMs (or other investments) are concerned...... exchange rates, inflation, time-value (lost/forfeited interest), etc. Just eyeballing the elephants in this multi-ring circus can be a big mistake indeed. Best watch the clowns on the sidelines as well. Considering "price" alone is proof in itself that many continue to fall into the same old fiat trap, PMs or no PMs. With PM dollar values up 50% (just as an example), we've gained nothing if those same dollars (DX) are down the same 50% vs. other currencies, inflation, taxes on gains, and other "opportunity costs". It takes "realization" and consideration of a whole plethoria of factors to come to the obvious conclusion that a "bull market" is not always what it appears on the face of things. As with all things, "bull or bear" is always a relative term, regardless of the direction of the markets......bullish for me, bearish for you......even though we stew in the same pot.
R PowellTownie + CB2#12903202/08/05; 17:45:52

Thank you, gentlemen.
R PowellGood to see you guys....!#12903302/08/05; 17:55:34

Hello to Galearis and Kilo. Glad to hear from both of you! Hopefully, we'll hear from you more often.

Galearis, anything new in the realm of silver supply and demand? How is it that China can so desparately need tin, copper, cement powder, oil, soybeans, iron ore, etc. and yet not need enough more silver to the point where they need to import...not export..silver?? They must be consuming more + more silver in that expanding economy, no?

Chally$$$$$$$ $405.60 $$$$$$$$#1290342/8/05; 23:34:04

I read this forum almost daily now, having just completed the ANOTHER archives (major head pain) and am still working through FOA (Archive II)(slightly easier to understand, but mind numbing nonetheless)....

The knowledge expressed here keeps me in humble silence, because I realize that what I thought I KNEW, is either suspect at best, or wouldn't make a pimple on the arse of most posters here. My questions now overwhelm my answers.
Please keep it coming!!

Gandalf the WhiteTA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA#1290352/9/05; 00:06:13

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

Entries as of Wednesday 2/9/05 at 00:01 Denver Time

$$$$ $488.5 $$$$ Merlinsen (2/8/05; 10:00:14MT - msg#: 129004)

$$$$ $454.7 $$$$ Moegold (2/8/05; 14:03:53MT - msg#: 129019)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ spikedog (02/04/05; 22:50:22MT - msg#: 128898)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 11:27:26MT - msg#: 128871)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck (02/04/05; 17:10:03MT - msg#: 128888)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (02/04/05; 16:52:40MT - msg#: 128886)

$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ lifer (02/04/05; 15:22:20MT - msg#: 128883)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ slingshot (02/04/05; 15:35:11MT - msg#: 128885)

$$$$ $415.9 $$$$ Smeagol (02/05/05; 15:44:17MT - msg#: 128925)

$$$$ $409.0 $$$$ YGM (02/08/05; 04:06:16MT - msg#: 128999)

$$$$ $407.1 $$$$ 2023 (2/6/05; 23:18:03MT - msg#: 128961)

$$$$ $405.6 $$$$ Chally (2/8/05; 23:34:04MT - msg#: 129034)

$$$$ $400.0 $$$$ DryWasher (2/8/05; 10:57:34MT - msg#: 129009)

$$$$ $398.0 $$$$ DoubleEagle (02/08/05; 01:09:39MT - msg#: 128998)

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the April COMEX contract (GCJ05) on Wednesday, February 16, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, February 13th.

The "Price of Gold" (POG) Contest winner -- the person with the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a nineteenth Century 20 Lira Italian Umberto I coin, (which may be seen at the following LINK).
These coins were Minted between 1880 - 1897 with a Fineness of 0.900, which therefore contains an "Actual Gold Content" of 0.1867 net fine troy ounces of pure GOLD !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2005 Gold Contract (GCJ05) on the date of Wednesday, February 16, 2005.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $421.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $421.0 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! "FIRST COME" has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Sunday, February 13, 2005.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY--- (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will be REQUIRED to answer the DIFFICULT and controversial subject by "Determining and COMPLETING the following statement": <;-)

I read the USAGOLD Forum ( how often? ) because ------ (in 25 words or more!).

LET the CONTEST continue !
"COME ON IN" all you Lurkers ! Now is the time to get your Posting Code from the TownCrier at the Link at the top of this PAGE !

Beamer$$$$ $444.4 $$$$#1290362/9/05; 01:35:04

I read the USAGOLD Forum 3 or 4 times a week because my search for the truth is never ending. I have lurked on this site for 1 year now. I find the messages enlightening. I find the posters talented and knowledgeable. I find the links that provide the truth or rebuttals to pulp fiction that others would have us believe. I find the archives of treasured posters who have provided direction and food for thought. ANOTHER and FOA come to mind. Some say I am a goldbug. I believe that I have a genetic predisposition to gold from an event in the distant past in the family tree. I enjoy the commentary from around the world, on this site, and wish that more would come aboard and provide their thoughts and news from distant lands. I may not have access to meaningful news to post but I guarantee that I will always be lurking!
TopazGold, DX etc. #1290372/9/05; 02:53:23

If this DX wants to hold 85 it'll need some help from Yields (UP) ...and it's not getting it!
Oil is now a drag on 'ol Buck and those SM's "really" need to get a wriggle on.

Lots of confluence/confirmation isn't happening at this point so DX could re-test 80 as early as next week.


968The End of The Oil Standard#1290382/9/05; 04:00:48

"Few commentators have recognized the significance of OPEC's January 30 decision to temporarily suspend their price band mechanism. If the suspension is indeed temporary, it may not be that important. If it isn't, there are some interesting parallels to the suspension of the U.S. gold standard in 1968 to 1971."

"Viewed from a different angle, an oil price ceiling is a dollar floor."
Wow, this is one of the first articles I read that recognizes the fact that OPEC can determine "the price of the dollar in oil-terms", and links the gold-dollar-oil relationship !

Clink!Confession Time#1290392/9/05; 06:51:10

In his book "What does Mr. Greenspan really think ?", Larry Parks made the observation that the Maestro often speaks with much greater candor when he is outside the US. (The book dissects a speech given in Leuven, Belgium) This time it's Steven Roach doing the dissecting.

Snip -
'"At long last, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has owned up to the central role he has played in sparking unprecedented global imbalances. His confession came in the form of a speech innocuously entitled, "Current Account" that was given in London at the Advancing Enterprise 2005 Conference on the eve of the 5 February G-7 meeting. In the narrow world of econo-speak, his prepared text contains the functional equivalent of a "smoking gun."'

He concludes -

'The Federal Reserve is trapped in a moral-hazard dilemma of its own making. It dates back to the Great Bubble of the late 1990s and the central bank's unwillingness to take away the proverbial punch bowl just when the party was getting good. The close brush with deflation that then ensued was a painfully classic post-bubble aftershock. That experience underscores the greatest shortcoming of modern-day central banking -- the inability of monetary policy to cope successfully with asset bubbles and the deflationary perils they engender. The history of the 1930s and Japan in the 1990s are grim reminders of that shortcoming. Alan Greenspan's confession finally sets the record straight on how he got us into this mess. But it is a confession that is still steeped in denial. The presumption that natural market forces can cure all ignores the lingering perils of an all-too treacherous endgame. Let's not forget that nearly five years after the equity bubble popped, America's imbalances -- to say nothing of the world's imbalances -- remain in uncharted territory.'

C! It's sure curious how every slight nuance of what he says in the US is used by the CNBC et al. to explain why the market jumps or twitches on a particular day, yet completely ignores fairly plain speaking like this. It must be nice to be the almighty Ruler of the Universe in your own country, while simultaneously being able to protect your behind outside of it. If something brown hits the ventilation, he can always point to the transcript and say ,"Heck, don't say I never told you !" Of course, he has probably made so many speeches, over so many years, on so many topics from so many angles, that he probably can save his butt from 360 degree attack ! Remember his gold article from '66 ?


BelgianBravo 986 !!!#1290402/9/05; 07:38:51

You must have a fine nose as to serve this forum with all these great articles ! Dollar-oil-gold AND all it is about ! The article provides the clue as to understand why the prices are doing as the do.

Last night, the ceo of BP, wasn't excluding the possibility that oilprices could fall back to $20 pb. BP, is the (in)famous oil-company that had to review its oilreserves downwards, for the third time in a row !!! >>> Planting stories and manufacture the reality !!!

So don't be surprised that the "real story" will slowly but surely, surface (cfr. your article).
Watch the 20 yrs $-POG chart (see link-Norcini) and conclude that not only oil but gold also has clearly signaled that the former $-standard-range is to become history. It is oil and gold that say how they value the dollar's utility. The euro continues to make itself up as to invite oil and gold to have a look at it (the euro) and suggest : can I, the euro, come into consideration of being "valued" by you (oil + gold) ? That's what is meant by the political styling of a fiat currency.

Follow the debates on ARTE/France 3(Christine Ockrent)/WDR 2 (Sabine Christiansen). EMU and what has to grow out of it.
Time consuming but provides you insights into the approaching future. Gives you also a better idea of "how" the EU (and EMU) is discretely evolving.

IMVHO, it is a mistake to continue viewing gold as a speculation (gamble) for the short term. Your article is a piece of the evidence that gold is heading for a dramatic change. Just like oil is entering a new era. The existing dollar complacency will be shattered into pieces, whether we like it...find it convenient... or not.

Many articles, like the one you posted, indicate that the timing of the change is coming closer. And the closer we are getting to that moment of very visible (experienced) change...the more efforts, to hide the change, are being produced.
cfr. the repeated bounce of the USDX on the 80 maginot line.
Idem dito for the IRs smoke and mirrors. And of course the growing stash of outside US dollar(reserves) cfr. Snow's latest remarks on these dollar stashes (unalarming level).
The absurd over-valuations of all things dollar (currency exch. rate, bonds, stocks) cannot be fed to the whole world ad infinitum. Oil and gold (the price trends and behavior)are still saying so ! When long term trends are broken, the change has started. Oil has broken its former ceiling, thus the dollar will break its former bottom (USDX-80). Gold signaled that it is rattling its chains. Can we confidently conclude that one should position oneself for the long term, and leave old trading habits for what they once were !?

Henri$$$$$$$ 408.1 $$$$$$$#1290412/9/05; 08:02:33

I read the USA gold forum because I enjoy the witty repartee of my cyberfriends. Where else could I access developing global perspective on issues related to gold that are more candid and delivered in such a palatable format as the writings of the knights and ladies of the acclaimed round table. Yes, I consider all of you my friends and hope to meet you some day.
BelgianHoi Clink : Great Conclusion !#1290422/9/05; 08:55:00

Greenspan is not only responsible for the dollar's management inside the US (US-economy), but also for the dollar as the globe's trading and reserve currency !!!
His monetary policies "must" permanently serve "two" purposes : America and the rest of the globe !!! What a conflicting and the same dollar for two different (differing) blocks. (With us($) or against us($) ?)

Isn't the above the real reason why things cannot be solved for the US AND the rest of the world AT THE SAME the same way...with the same policies !? This impossible situation will result in a general atmosphere of increasing impatience and nervousness. Cfr. the growing impact of the Asian effects. (A. Greenspan in Frankfurt)

Isn't the above reality (impatience-nervousness) contributing to getting closer and closer to drastic measures that will introduce the "change" in monetary (global economic) affairs ?

The amalgame of the US$ for America and the US$ for the world is certainly causing a lot of confusion for the common observers. I think that the world will go with Sir Alan for as long as possible and without Alan's $-policies (management) as soon as it is needed (more convenient)!

Think that we will arrive at a point where the US wishes to put its own house in order, without the burden of having to keep managing the dollar in function of the whole world.
A US$ for the US and let the rest of the world sort it out for itself ? A massive flight out of the dollar, into gold... !?

Clink!Is fiat like gold ?#1290432/9/05; 08:59:51

OK, OK, now that I have your attention, let me explain.

Metals have two zones of behavior under strain (where strain is defined as a force intended to stretch it). The first is elasticity, where the extension under strain is more or less linear with the applied force. Removal of that force will allow the metal to resume its initial form. But apply a force past a given limit, and the metal will become ductile i.e. will stretch. If the force is removed, the metal will not spring back - its internal structure has been irrevocably changed. The most interesting part is that if the force is kept constant past the point of ductility, the metal will continue to stretch, getting longer and longer, becoming thinner and thinner until finally it snaps.

At the forum, many suspect that the figure of USDX of 0.80 is a critical level of support. Is it also the limit of ductility, below which it will continue to descend unchecked until it breaks ? And if the triple deficits are lessened, will it remain under that limit quasi-permanently ?


Clink!@ Belgian#1290442/9/05; 09:02:43

With us($) or against us($) ? LOL - nice play on words !

Galearis@ Belgium or value pricing thread#1290452/9/05; 09:15:53

Hello Belgium,
Thank you for your comments.

I do not feel comfortable in telling who of the various writers on the subject responded to the value pricing theme, but I will say that they are very well known proponents of TA who regularly publish copiously and with very pretty graphical content on their areas of interest. About half (as stated) responded to either my comments or similar ones from Rhody. All were favourable and all admitted that they had neglected to consider this line of reasoning. At least one now mentions the "possibly manipulated silver market" in his commentary on the precious metals markets.

I do give full marks for these folks making these positive statements because in a sense looking at pricing with the inflation/dollar shrink factored in is a disincentive for investment. Especially in equities. The DOW "valued" as if it were hanging around the 7000 level is not a sales promotion, yes? Also most have "invested" their whole modis operandi into TA interpretation and have been publishing this stuff for years. I applaud them for even THINKING about looking at it critically!

And it is really interesting that the people who invented this TA system got a Nobel prize for the effort,,,,and also ironic that while it advances the art of tracking a market in one sense, it adds a layer of armour against those same participants actually seeing markets in a more meaningful way.

The Federal Reserve must be laughing at least a little. What a coup for them to be assured that currency problems are not factored into investment decisions. By virtually everyone!

Best regards,


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Be sure to check out the February Buyers' Group special -- the 20Fr Collection.#1290462/9/05; 10:06:41">gold -- a global calling card
Galearis@ Kilo and Rich re the price value thread (gold and silver)#1290472/9/05; 10:28:58

Hello Rich and Kilo,

Thanks for your comments. I rather get the impression that FOA actually understood this theme very well. I remember him saying that "'they’ would keep the DOW at around 10,000 to 10,500 for a very long time"…One wonders if they can do it when the USD is worth $0.03. One only wonders if the rest of the G-7 will comprehend their situation in the same way then as an Argentinian (for example) did recently. (Smile)


Good chatting with you again.
I can't say that there is any firm news on the silver supply and demand situation, but the I can safely say that there is much less silver around now than during my last stay at the castle. Anecdotally, the volatility in the paper market is strongly implying stresses and worry – in spite of the recent disciplinary assault on POS using leased silver supplies. That they do this at the new bottom ($4.63 in year 2000 dollars) also implies worry in the ranks. That they do this at this juncture in order to drive the price lower (it did not work all that well) implies a need to synchronize with spot gold movements – to give the markets some credibility methinks…

I have ceased to think of the gold and silver markets as equity plays,,,,(as they surely are for many of the cabal linked commercial interests),,,,but rather, like gold, the "direction" is mostly meant to keep investment attention clear of them,,,, That IMO is monetary worry. I also think that the Federal Reserve interests "partnered by convenience" with the SUA that started with Kennedy in the early ‘60s to set up silver supplies in the US to be exploited for price suppression has evolved to the point that it is a scandal waiting to happen. The COMEX over the past 40 years has been saddled with so much mismanagement that ‘they’ are trapped in a perpetual cover-up/manipulation that the CFTC is unable to address. It has simply gone to far. They let the paper markets get out of control in similar manner to how ANOTHER saw the LBMA getting out of control. The same sort of "mess" is involved.

Note, I am giving a more apologistic interpretation to the COMEX mess than is even likely the case….Time will tell. (Smile)

So I disagree with Ted Butler in that I think COMEX must die. And that's what it boils down to. When leasing ends, so does COMEX. Then silver AND gold will fly. It is impossible to guess how long this will take.

Which brings us to China. Firstly, it is only a supposition that the leased silver is coming from China. It is likely the case, as China was the last country to go off the silver standard,,,,or to cease to use silver money,,,,and that too was due to meddling/manipulation by the United States (I seem to recollect). At any rate, they would have the silver to lease,,,,for a time.

Why? IMO it is simply what they see as the cost to doing business. If silver blows up due to lack of leased metal supplies, then gold blows up. That takes the USD down, and there goes their economy. Although it doesn't make sense on the surface for the Chinese to get rid of their precious silver supplies in order to suppress the price,,,, the economic gain of a booming economy would seem to trump most other concerns. The price of employment internally would seem to be the sacrifice of their remaining silver supplies. If their economy implodes because of the collapse of the US as a trade partner, they (probably) feel that THAT cost is higher than the silver that they can hope to mine in a self-sustaining quantity in the future. But if their economy implodes, they won't need that silver as much anyway.. China is a major silver producer (4th, I think) so the silver will be there for them down the road. They surely hope.

This makes as much sense to me as Japan buying US debt in order for it to be worth something to trade for with the US,,,,You see?

At least that's my take on the situation. If something doesn't make sense,,,,then there must be politics behind it.

Best regards, and of course, FWIW.


TownCrierEchoes of Clink!'s #'39#1290482/9/05; 10:34:34

HEADLINE: Forex market perhaps misled by Greenspan

TOKYO, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Noted Federal Reserve watcher John Berry said in a column ... carried by Bloomberg that the market was "perhaps misled by the seemingly hopeful tone of Greenspan's remarks" and that the Fed chief listed "several major reasons why the U.S. trade deficit isn't likely to shrink anytime soon."

Berry said of Greenspan's speech that the market "should have listened more closely to all his carefully worded caveats", and added that Greenspan's suggestions of why the trade and current account balance may improve were "highly problematic."

Greenspan's speech surprised analysts because the Fed chairman just a few months earlier had expressed concern about the willingness of foreigners to finance U.S. deficits.

^-----(from url)------^

I guess it will always be true that markets tend to see only what they want to see, and are further limited by what they are able to understand.


TownCrierECB's Issing says monetary policy can help to prevent asset price bubbles#1290492/9/05; 10:56:06

FRANKFURT (AFX) - European Central Bank chief economist Otmar Issing said
monetary policy has a role to play in preventing asset price bubbles.

He said it should not be overlooked that the most exceptional increases in
prices for stocks and real estate in history were accompanied by strong
expansions in money and/or credit growth.

"We have learned on many occasions that excess liquidity can show up in
excessive asset valuations and not only in consumer price inflation," he wrote.

Sooner or later, unsustainable asset price rises may translate into sizeable
risks to price stability -- in either direction.

"To my mind, the risks associated with asset price inflation and subsequent
deflation are an important additional reason for paying close attention to money
and credit, over and above the regular and well-established link between money
and consumer prices," Issing wrote.

Central banks have to react to asset price bubbles before they burst, not
afterwards, ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet said.

^------(from url)-----^

Ever careful not to offer direct critique of the U.S. situation or policy, the European monetary officials nonetheless effectively do it obliquely by expressing due concern over elements of their own situation which are often tame as compared to the U.S. situation.

I guess they figure we can easily enough make the associations and do the math.

But then again, markets tend to see only what they want to see, and are limited by what they are able to understand.

Choose gold -- easy to understand, safe to have around.


geR Powell#1290502/9/05; 10:57:00

Thanks, you are welcome.
madmark$$$$$$ 432.20 $$$$$#1290512/9/05; 11:12:28

Belgian@Clink - USDX below 80 ?#1290522/9/05; 11:35:01

Below 80 = uncharted territory. Means, that anything can happen...most probably something that never happened before. way to possibly hope for any $-recovery. A softer dollar in exchange rate AND purchasing power as well ! Read hyper-price-inflation with irreversible consequences >>> loss of reserve status.
Cfr. The pound sterling !

Watching the screen now : All of a sudden the $-POO shot up 1,2 %, then the dollar exch. rate rise lost steam and declined. Then the $-POO went back down again and stopped at its original level. Note that it is not the other way around (declining dollar causing POO to rise). Oil is pricing the dollar !!!
One day, gold will do the same job : Buy goldmetal >>> POG rises >>> dollar declines.

Clink : Once the USDX goes below 80, its former reputation will get a serious blow. I strongly doubt that it will change much on the deficits. The pound (Sterling empire and all empires before it) never recovered from its losses, either. There are indeed points of no return as you pictured with the metal story in your post. This is much more obvious for those outside the dollar-bowl than for the ones in it.

Greenspan can still count on some cooperation from those who "use" the dollar as to let things happen "orderly". On this particular aspect, Greenspan has his merits. He is the master of the financial orchestra for as long as all players wish to keep playing the dollar song.

Don't forget that the entire globe has been brought (maneuvered) under a constant increasing level of tensions, right after 9/11 !!! We often seem to forget that this event was the start of a dramatic process of multiple changes with no end in sight. This is also weighting heavely on the (world)dollar. Did you hear H. Kissinger on Iran !? Are you watching CNN getting us prepared for the inevitable !? Frighthening, no ?

TownCrierRevisiting old-ish news: Central banks dump dollar for euro#1290532/9/05; 12:07:26

(Jan 27, 2005) WASHINGTON - Central banks around the world are getting rid of the US dollar in favor of the euro in a bid to stem losses from the declining greenback, an international survey reveals. The survey says that more than two-thirds of central banks have increased their exposure to the euro in the past two years, mainly at the expense of the dollar.

Titled "Management Trends 2005", the report was published by the London-based Central Banking Publications Ltd. It surveyed 65 central bank reserve managers who control reserve assets worth $1.7 trillion, between September and December 2004.

Some economists have predicted a stampede away from the dollar and to the euro.

The oft-heard suggestion, which many appear to support, is that the drop could erode the dollar's 60-year role as the world's reserve currency.

The report, released on Monday, is the first concrete evidence that major central banks are indeed taking that step.

"It's a smart move on their part to move not just to the euro, they can also buy the yen. They can even buy gold or move to a whole mix of assets to get away from the dollar, which is overvalued," said Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington.

"It's going to have to fall eventually. The question is when."

Late last year, finance ministers from the oil-rich Persian Gulf region had said they might move to the euro. This month, the Saudi central bank governor predicted that the euro would play a greater role in global reserves in future.

"Diversification from dollar-denominated to euro-denominated assets appears to be taking place more rapidly than had been anticipated two years ago," the survey said.

[Randy note: and now we know more clearly why in a public statement ECB's president Trichet recently warned peers not to "rush" into euro reserves...]

... the fall could quickly turn into a major plunge if panic spreads among private investors and moves on to infect central banks, some economists say.


Weisbrot said, "China and Japan for example, either one of those, can cause a complete crash, a total collapse of the dollar just by selling a small portion of their reserves. In fact, probably they won't have to sell their reserves, all they have to do is stop accumulating or slow down their rate of accumulation and it will be a dollar crash."

^------(from url)------^

When you see that your dollar's fate is not in your own hands to decide, choose gold.

Rather than fundamentals (which, to be sure, are already well past their due to deliver the warranted dollar adjustment) it is surely politics alone that we now await to induce the delivery.

And given the generally unwanted disruptive effect that CB dollar-selling activity would precipitate, in keeping with the political premise just mentioned, it is more likely that to a large extent the dollars will be dutifully held and the losses absorbed in the name of iinternational economic stability. And to help the central banks mitigate (offset) their losses of reserves on the balance sheet, their very small vaults of gold will consequently grow very large in VALUE.


BelgianIssing...Greenspan...Roach....#1290542/9/05; 12:11:03

They all know very well that the dollar is (virtually) being backed by an "organized" ASSET ECONOMY, resulting in the collective dream of benign wealth-effects. This asset-economy was needed to expand on DEBT and nothing but debt !

One cannot go on for ever with increasing the "asset" part of the economy as to cover indefinitely the increasing debt that must drive the whole system. This dollar-system cannot expect the whole world to keep accepting this impossible concept. More and more debt, piled upon debt. (read Clink's post).
The euro's decline seems (!) to be halted (1,2815) thanks to the blitz rise (and fall back) of the POO !?
This continued oilprice volatility is definitely a new given !!!

pilgrims_gold$$$$$ $412.10 $$$$$#1290552/9/05; 12:33:20

I read the USAGOLD Forum every day I log on to the computer
because there are posters on this bulliten board who have
forgotten more about gold and silver than I have ever learned. I'm am not well knowledged about the U.S. government treasery department, foreign exchange markets, policies concerning mining, or even Alan Greenspans Magical Market Manipulations (MMM or make more money), but I'm sure there are people on this board who are well knowledged on the subjects. Read and Learn!

TownCrierDealing with runaway oil prices#1290562/9/05; 12:40:02

The base for this situation is, in particular, world demand growth ... and reason why demand is growing faster than in the 1990s, is unstoppable growth of all forms of commercial energy demand by very fast-growing economies, including China, India, Brazil, Pakistan, Iran and Turkey.

In addition, the type and nature of economic growth at the world level, also including the older, slower-growth OECD economies, has become more oil-intensive. This is reflected in the US (taking about 26% of world oil output) by consistent and large oil demand growth coming out of the 2001-02 recession in what has essentially been a "jobless recovery".

...real-world, real-economy data provide a direct challenge for those who regularly claim that "high oil prices hurt economic growth".

World oil demand has moved up with higher oil prices, which themselves lead to faster economic growth through raising "real resource" prices and revenues to generally low-income exporters of non-energy minerals, metals and agro-commodities.

In addition, higher oil and other "real resource" prices - these resources quoted and traded in US dollars - automatically levers up world liquidity, which then buoys and reinforces world solvent demand. At the same time, the emerging industrial superpowers of China and India have such generally low economy-wide oil and energy-intensity (around 1/8th to 1/15th per capita oil-intensity of the US and EU countries) that they are easily able to absorb much higher oil and energy prices without strain to their balance of payments.

...a real world situation of oil prices increasing while world oil demand continues to expand very fast - a context in which higher oil prices lever up world oil demand.

...domestic oil consumption of the producer countries reduc(es) their net export or supply offer. (For example,) By 2010-12, Iran may become a net importer of crude. Indonesia will almost certainly cease to be an exporter of either crude or products by 2006 or even 2005.

Given the laissez faire or new economy doctrine in current political and business leaderships, it is unlikely that serious planning will occur, giving way to crisis by default.

^-----(from url)-----^

Nobody can forever merely print their way to prosperity. When the cult of numerology comes crashing down, be sure to have something tangible in your pocket for the preservation of your purchasing power.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today and get yourself adequately diversified.


TopazGold @ Comex.#1290572/9/05; 12:44:55

Vault Gnomes busy today shuffling their largest amount since FND. 949 takes the tally to 15,500 odd.
ArcticfoxStorm forecasting..#1290582/9/05; 12:48:42

Bear-o-Metric Pressure Dropping
It should come as no surprise that even as the financial barometer is dropping with each Fed rate hike, economists and analysts are once again forecasting clear and sunny skies. Record trade deficits, rising government deficits, leveraged financial markets, ravaged consumer balance sheets, corporate malfeasance and a climate of speculation concern no one. Our financial forecasters are once again predicting perfect financial weather rather than the perfect financial storm.

Gandalf the WhiteWELCOME, all you former LURKERS, and NOW Posters!!! #1290592/9/05; 13:02:57

GREAT comments in these POG Contest entries !

KiloGalearis - Stocks - etc.#1290602/9/05; 13:15:28

With the dollar drop from (DX) 120 range to 85 range, it's amazing to me that anyone can say with a straight face that their investments (stocks 10k range then and now) are "at least not losing ground". HA ! What we need is a "purhasing power index" that takes all factors into consideration and provides a realistic view of ALL investment markets......the REAL bottom line. Otherwise, it's just the same old fiat game with most investors measuring with rubber rulers. Such a simple concept, but still so many blinded by dollar "values".

I enjoy your posting(s) sir.

Gandalf the WhiteToday's US$ Chart looks as if ----#1290612/9/05; 13:20:19

the ESF "Boyz" must have some real HEADACHES !
Having a tough time holding the 85 level !!!
Next stop is the 84 level AGAIN !

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.We are large enough to serve you with unsurpassed quality, and small enough to care!#1290622/9/05; 13:59:00">Get a head start on the gold market!
Gandalf the WhiteCrossover NEARITH !#1290632/9/05; 14:33:02$HUI,uu[h,a]daoayiay[pb200!f][vc60][iut!Uh89,21!Lp88,21,3]&pref=G

R PowellTowncrier' s chart from yesterday#1290642/9/05; 14:59:44

At least, I believe it was his with the Usagold/CPM Inc. heading on the post. Anyway, it showed a low of $412.58 and I see that today's close is slightly higher. My question is...add music here from the old "Twilight Zone".....was Randy moved by supernatural forces to post that chart on just the day that the POG bottoms for this particular downside move??
Obviously, one day doesn't a trend make but...?

TownCrierHenry C K Liu's withering blast at the failed "status quo" version of MONOPOLY#1290652/9/05; 15:26:44

This provides an elaborate expansion to some of the MONOPOLY-themed ideas I've introduced in posts over the past couple days.

Key excerpts of a looooong article follow:

Feb 3, 2005 -- It has been said that when economics turns serious, it becomes political. The Washington Consensus, a term coined in 1990 by John Williamson of the Institute for International Economics to summarize the synchronized ideology of Washington-based establishment economists, reverberated around the world for a quarter of a century as the true gospel of reform indispensable for achieving growth in a globalized market economy.

Initially applied to Latin America and eventually to all developing economies, the term has come to be synonymous with globalized neo-liberalism or market fundamentalism to describe universal policy prescriptions based on free-market principles and monetary discipline within narrow ideological limits. It promotes for all economies macroeconomic control, trade openness, pro-market microeconomic measures, privatization and deregulation in support of a dogmatic ideological faith in the market's ability to solve all socio-economic problems more efficiently, and to assert a blanket denial of an obvious contradiction between market efficiency and poverty eradication.

Financial-capital growth is to be served at the expense of human-capital growth. Sound money, undiluted by inflation, is to be achieved by keeping wages low through structural unemployment. Pockets of poverty in the periphery are the necessary price for prosperous centers. Such dogmas grant unemployment and poverty, conditions of economic disaster, undeserved conceptual respectability. State intervention has come to focus mainly on reducing the market power of labor in favor of capital in a blatantly predatory market mechanism....

Neo-liberal economists argue that unemployment and poverty, deadly economic plagues in the short term, can lead to macroeconomic benefits in the long term, just as some historians perversely argue that even the Black Death (1348) had long-range beneficial effects on European society.

The resultant labor shortage in the short term pushed up wages in the mid-14th century, and the sudden rise in mortality led to an oversupply of goods, causing prices to drop. These two trends caused the standard of living to rise for those still living. Yet the short-term shortage of labor caused by the Black Death forced landlords to stop freeing their serfs, and to extract more forced labor from them.

In reaction, peasants in many areas used their increased market power to demand fairer treatment or lighter burdens. Frustrated, guilds revolted in the cities and peasants rebelled in the countryside. The Jacquerie in 1358, the Peasants' Revolt in England in 1381, the Catalonian Rebellion in 1395, and many revolts in Germany, all served to show how seriously the mortality had disrupted traditional economic and social relations.

Neo-liberalism in the past quarter-century created conditions that manifested themselves in violent political protests all over the globe, the extremist form being terrorism. But at least the bubonic plaque was released by nature and not by human ideological fixation. And neo-liberalism keeps workers unemployed but alive with subsistence unemployment aid, maintaining an ever-ready pool of surplus labor to prevent wages from rising from any labor shortage, eliminating even the cruelly derived long-term benefits of the Black Death.
("benefits" of Black Death... tongue firmly in cheek)

...the real harm of the Washington Consensus has yet to be properly recognized: that it is a prescription for generating failed states around the world among developing economies.

The United States is the leading advocate of the efficacy of free markets and the economic benefits of privatization of the public sector. It prescribes policy measures that aggressively weaken the state apparatus and that inevitably lead to failed statehood. At the same time, the US is also the leading proponent of superpower military intervention in failed states around the world.

Yet while neo-liberals, together with their strange bedfellows the neo-conservatives, advocate humanitarian military intervention in failed states, they adamantly oppose government intervention in failed markets that accept unemployment as necessary antidote for inflation.

The US now mistakes military and economic prowess for moral superiority and views itself as having earned the privileges of a benevolent hegemon. Thus the neo-imperialist formula for the new Pax Americana is a two-punch operation. The first punch uses neo-liberalism to cause a weak state's economy to collapse to produce a failed state. The second punch invades by force the failed state to delivery liberty as defined by the new imperialism to set it up as a US protectorate and economic colony.

...Failed and collapsed states are a structural trait of the contemporary international system, and not a temporary dysfunction of the Westphalian world order of sovereign states.

In the US, socio-economic Darwinism is celebrated as indispensable for the survival of the economy in the market place, while scientific theories of evolution are challenged by Creationism in public schools. Those who believe God created man apparently do not believe he created all men as equals. These structural anomalies and conceptual inconsistencies produce tensions in the international system, with serious consequences for developed and developing economies alike. states with advanced economies increasingly do not consider most human aspects of societies as proper state concerns, such as the provision of a rising standard of welfare to their citizens, which has been conveniently assigned to the indifferent workings of the market, but confining themselves to guarding and strengthening no-holds-barred free-market conditions through which private wealth is generated for the benefit of the strong, leaving the weak to perish in a natural selection. Wealth-distribution functions are assigned to the market even though the structural maldistribution of market power is maintained by the state. This amounts to a selective exercise of state power of coercion to favor one segment of the population or one type of institutions at the expense of all others.

Neo-liberal ideology ... strips states of their sovereign authority to intervene in markets on behalf of national interests, causing state authority to collapse in all area except the protection of foreign and domestic private property. Failed states depend on globalized market fundamentals to finance their state functions and inevitably fall into collapsed-state status for lack of funds.

...Neo-imperialism detaches economic security from legitimate state functions. Freedom from want is not considered a state responsibility by neo-liberalism. Financial security is merely a market risk that should be faced by each individual market participant.

...Capitalists use globalized finance markets to tilt a level playing field in trade to create private profit out of public poverty. This is done through the private control of money as a legal tender, through a monetary system under a central banking regime that ideologically accepts structural unemployment as the unavoidable means to combat inflation. ... A globalized foreign-exchange market dominated by dollar hegemony is the venue for US superpower financial imperialism.

Dollar hegemony, the status of the dollar as a dominant reserve currency in international trade despite its fiat nature, operates in a globalized foreign-exchange market to rob sovereign states of their right and ability to issue sovereign credit for domestic development, by exposing their domestic currencies to market attacks. Since sovereign control over the monetary system and the economy is the sine qua non prerequisite of sovereignty, the BIS financial world order of failed states has in fact replaced the Westphalian world order of sovereign states through financial globalization.

^------(see url for full commentary)-----^

Whatever you come away with or read into this commentary, a point that should resonate with all of us is that games are being played on a higher level of social organization than the level at which you and I function in our daily lives, and as individuals we would do well to order our affairs in such a way that we seize personal responsibility for our financial security such as we can in an environment of not knowing from day to day what will befall the market value of our various state-sponsored gaming tokens, national currencies. Even the mighty dollar has demonstrated vulnerability, and on any given day may suffer a backlash at the hands of those perceiving themselves to be unacceptibly oppressed.

Choose gold and look reality right in the eye.


TownCrierRich,#1290662/9/05; 15:34:39

Thanks for taking notice.


Galearis@ Kilo re Dollar value theme#1290672/9/05; 15:51:30

Thank you for the accolades.

Here is a web site that may help you from day to day. As you are aware there are problems comparing buying power of a given currency over time,,,because the things that one can buy over time do change,,,,and hence the measure of change of the buying power of goods shows the difficulty. Try to think in terms of constants an ounce of gold or a loaf of bread. But know too that production costs of some products may have fallen in dollar value costs too. And how does one try to measure the worth over time of a Nortel stock? Well,... so there are built in distortions
Needless to say the CPI method may bit wonkier than most and we do not know how much "fiddling" goes on in the other comparisons.

Notwithstanding let's look at silver: the USD has lost approximately 2.75 fold of its buying power(including present difficulties)-since 1980. The Hunt Bros spike saw silver at $50. Silver would have to reach $137 in order to equal the 1980 spike. So I have no trouble believing in year 200x silver in triple digits. (Smile)

If one looks at gold in the same way, the present spot price has more in common with a 1950-1950 $35 per ounce at the start of its bull market than $410 gold well on its way.

Think in terms of an average wage today in the US at $100. That's only 4 days pay. What is 4 days pay in 1950-60?

You see?

Now do you see how successful has been the manipulation?

Best regards,


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1290682/9/05; 16:16:18">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Wednesday market excerpts

U.S. gold futures settled a shade higher on Wednesday after sliding to 4-1/2-month lows earlier, as gyrations in the dollar continued to dictate direction for the yellow metal, dealers said.

Gold had its first gain in five sessions.

COMEX April gold edged up 20 cents to $414.50, after trading between $411.50 -- its cheapest intraday price since Sept. 22 -- and the day's high at $415.30.

Trade was thin in metals this week as Chinese dealers were mostly absent and markets were closed in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore.

Japan also will shut Friday for a three-day national holiday.

A broker at a futures commission merchant said gold had tendency to stalk the euro's moves almost tick-for-tick in recent months. "Put up a 5-minute chart in gold and a 5-minute chart in the euro -- one's following the other," he said.

After gold closed, the euro was up at $1.2808, versus $1.2773 late on Tuesday.

------(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)----

Gandalf the WhiteDo you see NOW ---the LITTLE DOWN GAP ? <;-)#1290692/9/05; 16:19:14

Start the band up with "The Party's Over" !

TownCrierSA mines minister opposes IMF gold sales#1290702/9/05; 16:25:58

South Africa's Minerals & Energy Minister Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka said yesterday she opposed the idea of selling International Monetary Fund (IMF) gold, one of several proposals to use its gold reserves for debt relief.

Mlambo-Ngcuka told Reuters at an African mining conference in Cape Town that other minerals ministers at the event were concerned by media reports on the proposals, and they would ask the International Monetary Fund for clarification.

"Obviously if what we see in the newspapers is a fact we have reasons to be concerned," she said.

Asked for her view on South African Finance Minister Trevor Manuel's cautious backing of the gold sale proposals, along with suggestions to revalue the IMF's reserves, Mlambo-Ngcuka replied: "I don't know about that, I am not in favour of that".

"We are going to be looking at the latest intentions of the IMF gold sales," Mlambo Ngcuka said in a speech to the conference earlier. "We are going to be embarking on a coordinated approach to deal with this issue and to again avoid this becoming another problem for gold producers."

...The IMF holds 103,4-million ounces of gold, one of the biggest stocks in the world. Under a 1971 agreement, most is valued at $40 to $50 an ounce, or about a tenth of current market prices.

^----(from url)-----^

If gold producers exhibit this much worry over the potential sales of rational gold reserves, think how very much more legitimate worry is warranted by "bond producers" (the U.S.) over the potential sales of irrational dollar reserves!


DoubleEagleHistory channel right now, 1800 CST#1290712/9/05; 17:01:34

History's Mysteries, wreck of the SS Central America. Me loves the giant gold bars! Not to mention the double eagles.


The Invisible Hand$$$$8,752.00$$$$#1290722/9/05; 17:15:29

The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT - msg#: 70296)
Confirmation and discussion ****$ 8,752****
I do hereby confirm my guess of ****$ 8,752 ****
Discussion: Although in an earlier post of the last fortnight I said that A/TG predicted an upward surge of 50 bucks a day, I think it would be more precise to say that the gentlemen argue the unexpected move towards $ 30,000 can occur at anytime. It must thus start once. Why not within the 'time limit' of the contest?
I read the USAGOLD Forum once a century because you never know, maybe it will happen one day and the USAGOLD chronometer will be working again so that it can predict the arrival. Beaujolais nouveau, anyone? Trink, trink, bruderlein, trink, laßt doch die Sorge zu hause!

NedInvisible Hand.................#1290732/9/05; 17:17:19

......YOU ARE THE MAN!!!!

Contrary to ALL the rumors on the 'net'...YOU ARE THE MAN!!


NedIn all seriousness.....................................#1290742/9/05; 17:32:45

here's the story.

I complained, yes IMAGINE, I complained about the 'fickleness' of the financial institutions, the FED, Wall St., the analysts et al..........this morning.

Please go to the 'link', look for:

"Greenspan in Frankfurt Germany at the European Banking Conference, Nov. 19, 2004................" will disappear soon.

As per my message this morning...."what the hell is going on....?" , this answers COMPLETELY why Greenfreak was so dollar negative in November and now so dollar positive in January.

Here's the quote:

"Greenspan in Frankfurt Germany at the European Banking Conference, Nov. 19, 2004"

"The question now confronting us is how large a current account deficit in the United States can be financed before resistance to acquiring new claims against U.S. residents leads to adjustment.

Even considering heavy purchases by central banks of U.S. Treasury and agency issues, we see only limited indications that the large U.S. current account deficit is meeting financing resistance.

Yet, net claims against residents of the United States cannot continue to increase forever in international portfolios at their recent pace. Net debt service cost, though currently still modest, would eventually become burdensome. At some point, diversification considerations will slow and possibly limit the desire of investors to add dollar claims to their portfolios. (Emphasis mine • Dan N)

Resistance to financing, however, is likely to emerge well before debt servicing becomes an issue, or before the economic return on assets invested in the United States or in dollars more generally starts to erode.

Even if returns hold steady, a continued buildup of dollar assets increases concentration risk.

Net cross-border claims against U.S. residents now amount to about one-fourth of annual U.S.GDP. A continued financing even of today's current account deficits as a percentage of GDP doubtless will, at some future point, increase shares of dollar claims in investor portfolios to levels that imply an unacceptable amount of concentration risk.

This situation suggests that international investors will eventually adjust their accumulation of dollar assets or, alternatively, seek higher dollar returns to offset concentration risk, elevating the cost of financing of the U.S. current account deficit and rendering it increasingly less tenable. If a net importing country finds financing for its net deficit too expensive, that country will, of necessity, import less. It seems persuasive that, given the size of the U.S. current account deficit, a diminished appetite for adding to dollar balances must occur at some point."

Alan Greenspan 2 1/2 months later in London, Feb 4, 2005:

"The dramatic advances over the past decade in virtually all measures of globalization have resulted in an international economic environment with little relevant historical precedent I have argued elsewhere that the U.S. current account deficit cannot widen forever but that, fortunately, the increased flexibility of the American economy will likely facilitate any adjustment without significant consequences to aggregate economic activity/emphasis mine - Dan N.) That argument will be tested, I suspect, by possibly new twists and turns that will emerge in a seemingly ever-more complex international economic and financial structure.

Translation of Feb 4. 2005 comments: "I know that this cannot go on indefinitely as it is simply unsustainable since I just mentioned two months ago that foreigners are going to diversify from dollar based assets at some point. However, don't sweat it" - that adjustment by foreigners will be 'without significant consequences to aggregate economic activity'. In other words, it will all be painless and easy. As a matter of fact, you will not even be aware it is taking place it will be so smooth!".

Here's the quote from Dan Norcini, Sinclair's buddy:

"This is a master of spin at work. In the short span of two months, we no longer have to worry the least bit about any "diminished appetite" for 'investors ('foreigners'- Dan N.) adding dollar balances'. I must have missed what transpired over that two month interval that resulted in such an optimistic reassessment of his former view. Why is it that so few in financial circles actually replay his speeches and point out the obvious contradictions seemingly from one month to the next?"


Now! ........aside from Greenspeak's has been floundering and the HUI has been hurting.....notice today that the HUI turned positive .........HARD!!!!!!

The bottom is in! GOLD does not believe the U.S. rhetoric ANYMORE!! It's over.....$410 is the line in the sand.....anything else is bullsnot.

Major buy......IMNSHO........hee...hee.

I am now super-long and super least that's how the wife describes my 'portfolio'.

Hope others have seen the turn.

Have a golden day.

Gandalf the WhitePERFECT -- Right down to the Little BLUE LINE !!!#1290752/9/05; 17:33:45$GOLD,PWTBDANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

And now we have ten million and twenty (10,000,020) reasons why GOLD will go "TO THE MOON, Alice" !

CoBra(too)TIH is getting closer by ...#1290762/9/05; 17:46:23

well, by a mile and a smile.

Sauf, sauf Brüderlein sauf -
lass doch den Dollar zu haus.

Sauf, sauf Brüderlein sauf
wir haben den Euro zuhauf!

Thanks for the reminder - TIH - we'll take
it in stride. In earnest the charade is played
out by charlatans, posing as realpolitcicians!`
Or is it neocons? A new hybrid inner Beltway
species of cloned congressional Clowns? I
wouldn't know - though, would you?!

I mean would you know if - no not if - but surely when you're conned? No not the neo-conservative way - no, just the neo conning way ... "Orwell", you'll know "when" you've been conned after the fact - a fact which is in full play and view ... for your eyes only - cnbc, cnn, fox and all times and tribs and I - cb2

Federal_ReservesGandalf the White #1290772/9/05; 18:44:41

Good chart! Thanks. I would not like to see support break at these levels. The bearish price objective on your chart is 376. If we break down here, that would break the weekly uptrend line on the price charts too, and we might begin a sideways trend. Policy makers in Washington are threatening to reduce fiscal deficits, and AG says the trade balance is ready to improve too. I think this may be all BS, but for now gold seems to be saying wait and see. If the rhetoric doesn't match the results, gold could consolidate here and then once again move forward. Remember, sound fiscal and trade policies are probably good for the dollar, and bad for gold.
KiloGalearis - Exactly !#1290782/9/05; 19:27:36

You bring up some of the same factors I've illuded to, and especially the difficulties involved in following "all" factors involved in determining gains or losses.

Not only do "things" change over time, but the NEED for them changes as well. So again, we are rarely dealing with "constants" in making comparative valuations between gold, silver, and other "necessities" of life, or for that matter, any "investments". We are dealing with "value relativity" over time, or "relative values" if you will, as there are no true constants involved unless we are dealing or valuing only ONE item. An ounce of gold or an ounce of silver is a constant in that sense, because the "ounce" is always an ounce. But their relative values are ever changing, making it difficult to guage the value of one thing against another over time.

I'm reminded of the "Beanie Baby" and "Hot Wheels" toy car craze of several years ago. We purchased the "HOT" items via retail stores, catalogers, and internet dealers in those days, then set up shop on many weekends at "Collectibles Shows" and made money hand over fist. It seemed we could not get enough to satisfy all of the "collectors". Today, you can't give the stuff away, and luckily we sold out at the first sign of slowing demand and waneing interest in these "HOT" commodities. This was late 90s era, and having been in the PM markets on and off since the early 70s, knew that gold and silver were likely at their lows by 1999, which turned out to be correct. Proceeds of that little excursion in the toy fads were plowed back into metals, mostly Krugerrands, which we have been riding since.

But more to the point, there were certain "toys" at that time, things you could buy at your local Wal Mart store, that were very much in demand if you were lucky enough to run across them and had a "show" outlet to pass them on. Some of those little stuffed animals and pot-metal toy cars were worth, in some cases, ounceS of gold at the time. Today they go begging......that change in "relative value" that I mentioned.

But the same constantly applies to everything, including currencies, stocks, bonds, metals, real estate...... you name it. The only constant is the lack of consistency.

You mention metals in relation to a loaf of bread. But if we go to the local super market, we find bread priced anywhere from 75 cents to several dollars a loaf, depending on quality, ingredients, bakery, etc. What exactly then is the comparative dollar or PM value of "a loaf of bread" ? The same scenario applies to computers, vehicles, televisions, toilet paper, and so on. How exactly do we determine a "CPI" when the standards keep changing ?

I guess my point is, that over time, we really can only compare an item against itself for there to be absolute consistency. Our Krugerrand will always be an ounce of gold, "worth" an ounce of gold, regardless of what its "worth" happens to be in other commodities, food, or other goods or consumables. The old adage of that ounce always buying a suit of men's clothing through history is another misnomer in that there are vast differences in the quality and price ("value") of that man's suit. Some may be available at two for an ounce, while others might require several ounces to obtain. Again, we are dealing with relative value.

As much as we PM holders would like to think that our coins and bars are a bedrock standard of value, that simply is not the case, nor has it ever been. They are just another ever-floating item of ever-changing relative value in comparison to all other forms of "value", regardless of where we place that value.

Black BladeGreenspan Not Really Optimistic on Account Gap#1290792/9/05; 19:37:21


Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, speaking in London last week, put the best face he could on the outlook for the burgeoning U.S. current account deficit. Currency markets, perhaps misled by the seemingly hopeful tone of Greenspan's remarks, responded by bidding up the value of the dollar. They should have listened more closely to all his carefully worded caveats and conditional phrases. Perhaps the Fed chairman was wary about triggering another sell-off of the dollar similar to that which followed his speech last November. His statements then were interpreted by some market participants as an effort to talk down the dollar to aid in reducing the current account deficit.

Meanwhile, at a conference at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank the same day as his London speech, numerous economists predicted that the current account deficit is likely to worsen until foreign investors become unwilling to finance it. For example, economists Nouriel Roubini of the Stern School of Business at New York University and Brad Setser of University College, Oxford, argued, ``The U.S. is currently financing itself by selling low-yielding dollar debt which offers foreign investors little protection against a future fall in the dollar.

``Yet the United States' large trade deficit and rapidly rising external debt to GDP ratio imply that a large future fall in the dollar will be needed to reduce the U.S. trade deficit to more sustainable levels,'' Roubini and Setser said. Eventually the prospect of such losses will cause investors to shy away from dollar assets, they argued.

Black Blade: Exactly! Just what some of us have been saying all along. I saw the Euroland version of CNBC this morning and similar sentiments were expressed by the network's guests. The twin deficits and the "currency war" continues to weigh on the dollar and some economists are only now beginning to see that the "emperor wears no clothes". A little "portfolio insurance" is always prudent in these uncertain times (or should I - dare I say - "interesting times").

Black BladeInsider Buying Falls to 12-Year Low#1290802/9/05; 19:44:33


Corporate executives and directors are bearish on their own companies' stock. In January, insiders bought a mere $34.1 million of their own companies' stock, little more than a third of the $95 million for December, according to MarketWatch, which cited data from Thomson Financial.

The January number was the lowest since July 1993, when insiders bought just $26.3 million, according to MarketWatch. That month, however, insider purchases still accounted for roughly 5.5 percent of all dollars spent on insider-trading activity; in January 2005, purchases accounted for a mere 1.8 percent of the total dollars spent by insiders.

"We expected a month-over-month decline of some sort in keeping with the seasonal trend in each of the past 10 years," noted the Thomson report cited by MarketWatch "However, the magnitude of the decline in buying was unexpected." Insider behavior is watched very closely because this group is generally considered the most knowledgeable about a company's prospects. Insiders may sell for a number of reasons — to pay taxes, to diversify their portfolio, to make a large personal expenditure — but they buy for only one reason — they think their company's stock is cheap.

Black Blade: If insiders won't touch their own company shares with a 19 foot pole then why should you. This does not bode well for shares. On a side note - the old saw that "as goes January so goes the year" suggests that the stock indices should end in the red this year as this January the indices fell short. Of course the Super Bowl indicator suggests otherwise. Then my favorite - the "hemline indicator", but alas I see no mini-skirts so far this year. Hmmm...

TopazComex Gold (11)#1290812/9/05; 23:39:49

No vol on April, all yesterdays action on the current (delivery) Month. Something is gonna give REAL soon!
Belgian@Galearis & Kilo#1290832/10/05; 00:49:38

Your exchange of thoughts do touch the hart of the gold-matters.
Yes, those Krugerrands are freely tradable but we cannot believe that the invisible hand (not bruderlein TIH) has taken away "our" freedom of "PRICING" those ounces !!!
We simply go on believing that there is no such thing as an invisible hand and that there are only free "markets" !
Regulation-deregulation and intervention simply goes beyond us. We mistakenly believe in the genuine market forces as the most simple understandable (convenient) explanation.

Just consider all those invisible hands that are guiding the different units of trade, fiat currencies. Who decides on the rates...confetti expansion/contraction ? Is all this as transparent as they want us to believe it is ? Do we have any say on the 30,000 tonnes of official goldreserves ?
Are we deciding on war or peace ?

It is when invisible hands are getting gangrenous that they risk to be amputated. This will happen with the invisible hands that are "pricing" our ounces as non-value confetti/digits !!! The invisible goldpricing hands are aging and wounded. They will have to let "their" imposed standard of gold, go. The gangrene was caused by their mismanagement of the trade units (numericals). Goldpricing cannot be compressed into the established confetti/digit system. Their specific gold-"markets" will detoriate and explode. Then an ounce will indeed be "valued" as an ounce.
Valued with a constant "free" pricing. "Value" to be associated with "free".

But because we are all so terribly conditioned to accept that what we must call money is so "unfree"...we are afraid of the unknown prospect of real freedom. That's why we keep on thinking about "limited" prices for gold, just a bit higher than the ones we are accustumed to. Just like our never ending complacent trust in the aging dollar fiat/digit...ruled by the invisible hands. That's what political correctness is all about.

Thank you gentlemen.

968Financing the War, Financing the World#1290842/10/05; 02:10:54

"There will be a crisis when Europe, Asia and Latin America finally break away. The U.S. has said it can't pay back its dollar debts and doesn't intend to. As an alternative, it has proposed "funding the US dollar overhang" into the world monetary system. Other countries would get IMF credit equal to their dollar holdings, but these holdings no longer would be US Treasury obligations. The US would wipe its debt to foreign central banks off the hook. This would mean that it would have got all the balance-of-payments deficits for the past 32 years for free, with no quid pro quo.
The US has been proposing this for 30 years whenever Europe raises the issue of payment for its dollar holdings. American diplomats have said that they won't allow central banks to use their dollars to buy US corporations, for instance. When OPEC countries proposed this after 1973, the US Treasury reportedly informed them that this would be considered an act of war. As for Europe, it never has pushed its own self-interest in the World Bank or the IMF."

"Meanwhile, America's federal budget deficits can go on without limit, precisely because of the balance of payment deficit. The larger the payments deficit, the more dollars end up in the hands of foreign central banks, to be recycled into the purchase of US Treasury securities. This means that the US government's deficit - including the military spending in Iraq, by the way - is financed by foreign governments. This will continue despite the fact the debt already has grown greater than the ability to pay, until these countries finally break away from the system."
Interesting interview with Michael Hudson. Hudson doesn't elaborate "a break away from the system". How can the debts be settled or compensated in that event ?
Snowmans 'unalarming levels' of outside US dollarreserves say a lot. To use Bismarck's famous quote: "Never believe in anything until it has been officially denied.".
The fact that the ECB's gold holdings at this moment are only 23% less then their foreign exchange reserves are a clear indication that Europe sees :
1. a solution in gold in case of "a break away".
2. the break away is coming closer.

BelgianGoodmorning...#1290852/10/05; 03:51:10

Here we go again in European markets : As sson as the euro loses strength (against the dollar-under 1,2815) the POO goes UP ($46-+1,2%) and the euro fall stops !!!

This simply means that oil is being priced in euro (de facto not de jure). The dollar lost its support from the oil-standard !!!

This IS the $ >>> € ,"transitional" phase !!!

Next step is LSE under the continental umbrella. C. Parker will be invited on the reception.

Belgian@ 986 The Smarty !#1290862/10/05; 04:09:22

Hey brother...y're flying higher and higher. No need to keep studying A/FOA. You got it !!! Wawwwww.

The article is simply saying that free floating goldprices are coming !!!
The IMF yadayada of "revaluation" of their goldwealth for indebted third world countries...will evolve into freegold as to forgive and forget the cosmic debt of that first world state, soon not responsible for the globe's numeraire, anymore. YES WE ARE GETTING CLOSER. Let the bruderleins drink à volonté.

One more thing, 986...DON'T FORGET TO GET YOU SOME MORE, MATE.

NedTodays top rumor......N.Korea announces it has 'nukes'?#1290872/10/05; 04:24:46



"TOKYO -- (MarketWatch) -- North Korea declared Thursday for the first time it has produced nuclear weapons, according to news reports, citing the official Korean Central News Agency. Noth Korea said it wouldn't return to six-nation talks aimed at getting it to abandon its nuclear ambitions, and that its nuclear weapons will remain "a deterrent for self-defense under any circumstances."



TopazRumblings.#1290882/10/05; 04:53:00

As a matter of interest, seismic activity since 26th Dec has been increasing throughout the Pacific Rim and just lately further afield.
This Map indicates recent events. Note increasing activity both North and East of the original 9.2 Quake off Sumatra, following the Plate-lines.

SlowmanGuessing contest#1290892/10/05; 05:21:16

Please enter me in at$$$$$$$ 418.20 $$$$$$.

Now to answer your question.

I read gold eagle about 2 times a week, mostly because the better posters have left !!!!!!!!!!!!!.'s the story on nukes#1290902/10/05; 06:47:22

N Korea admits to making nuclear weapons
By Anna Fifield in Seoul and Daniel Dombey in Brussels
Published: February 10 2005 07:10 | Last updated: February 10 2005 13:17.

From THE Financial Times

North Korea on Thursday declared it had manufactured nuclear weapons - its most brazen admission yet that is has crossed the nuclear threshold - and announced it was withdrawing from multilateral negotiations on its disarmament.

Coming amid increasing hopes of an imminent breakthrough to the stalemate over Pyongyang's nuclear weapons programme, perhaps as soon as this month, the statement will confound North Korea's neighbours.

"We had already taken the resolute action of pulling out of the NPT (nuclear non-proliferation treaty) and have manufactured nukes for self-defence to cope with the Bush administration's ever-more undisguised policy to isolate and stifle the DPRK," North Korea's foreign ministry said, in a statement run by the official Korean Central News Agency. North Korea is officially known there as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

The weapons were built as a "nuclear deterrent for self-defence under any circumstances," the statement said. "The present reality proves that only powerful strength can protect justice and truth."

But some analysts point out that North Korea, with its fondness for belligerent outbursts, has a history of strengthening its threats just before agreeing to talks, a tactic aimed at increasing its bargaining power. If that is the case this time, Thursday's rhetoric could in fact be a counter-intuitively positive gesture.

Nevertheless, the first unequivocal admission that it already has nuclear arms will in the interim cause some alarm.

"This is really serious – North Korea is now stepping over the red line," said Kim Tae-woo, a nuclear expert at the Korean Institute for Defence Analyses in Seoul.

"This is an unfortunate move... because it deepens North Korea's isolation from the rest of the international community," said Condoleezza Rice, US secretary of state, at a meeting with the European Union in Luxembourg.

"There is a path ahead for the North Koreans that would put them in a more reasonable relationship with the rest of the world, " she said. Ms Rice still hoped that Pyongyang would participate in talks on its nuclear programme. "We hope that there will be six party talks soon," she said.

But Ms Rice attempted to downplay the significance of the North Korean announcement, which some critics see as a big setback for the Bush administration.

"We have for some time taken account of the capability of the North Koreans to perhaps have a few nuclear weapons," she said, arguing that the US had made such assumptions since the mid 1990s. She said US and South Korean forces in the region could cope with "any threat from North Korea"

Japan said it had not received official confirmation from North Korean officials regarding its decision to pull out of six-party talks. But the foreign ministry, responding to media reports, said: "Their attitude is extremely unconstructive. It is in North Korea's own interest to resolve the nuclear issue through six-party talks. Accordingly, we would like to ask that North Korea comes back to the table as soon as possible."

WMD interactive map
Click here

Since President George W Bush barely mentioned North Korea in his state of the union address earlier this month, analysts had expected a placated Pyongyang to agree to attend the fourth round of six-way talks with China, Japan, Russia, the US and South Korea.

There had been signs that Pyongyang was warming to the resumption of negotiations. Two recent congressional delegations to North Korea were also well received, with the official KCNA news agency saying afterwards that Pyongyang was ready to settle the nuclear issue peacefully and treat Washington as a "friend".

Ban Ki-moon, South Korea's foreign minister, left for Washington on Thursday for talks with Condoleezza Rice, the new US secretary of state, while Michael Green, senior director for Asia on the National Security Council, last week said the US had a "serious proposal" for North Korea.

Pyongyang on Thursday poured cold water on such expectations. "We have wanted the six-party talks but we are compelled to suspend our participation in the talks for an indefinite period till we have recognized that there is justification for us to attend the talks," the foreign ministry said through KCNA.

It had reached its decision because "the US disclosed its attempt to topple the political system in the DPRK at any cost, threatening it with a nuclear stick".

The fourth round of talks were scheduled to be held in September but Pyongyang refused to attend, apparently stalling in the hope a Kerry administration would lead to more favourable negotiating terms.

The six-party talks broke down after the third round in June, when Pyongyang rejected Washington's call to freeze its nuclear weapons programmes. Pyongyang is demanding security assurances from the US and economic aid before it will consider a freeze.

OvSMr.Gold#1290912/10/05; 07:04:06

JES just said: "In the final analysis,
the real money will be made by the
investor and not the trader who will
at one point make a great deal, and
then watch gold rise more than
500 points".
Echoes of Belgian, MK, Ari & Co. OvS

Sprout$$$$ 361.0 $$$$#1290922/10/05; 07:09:43

I read the USAGOLD Forum Daily!

If it weren't for USAGOLD and ALL the particapants who've graced these Castle halls,
I wouldn't be afforded the oppertunity to just Sit Back and Watch the Show!

Thank you to our gracious Host for providing this little slice of heaven
and for the chance to win FREE GOLD

The Hoople$$$ 426.8 $$$#1290932/10/05; 07:55:24

That's about 5- $2 collars from here. I guess North Korea's stunner about their WMD's makes gold $2 more valuable today. I visit USAGOLD forum daily because it filters out a lot of the noise and is more pure gold thought. Besides MK anf GC sell me all my shiny coins that I give them fiat paper for. What a deal!
BelgianGold#1290942/10/05; 08:38:57

Nice to hear that the authoritive Mister Gold recommends *holding* gold instead of trading it, whatever his argumentation for this change might be.
Most probably, many gold-traders are making less and less profits on their trades. They simply make the same conclusion than the Red Barons !
This means that gold will go swimming in other (free) waters. It never "functioned" as a hedge against fiat depreciation, anyway. You "had" to "trade" on the "goldprice" . Traders should go to the forex and bet on fiat paper/digits...if they can. Or sell the dollar and buy the Dow.

Gold was never meant to be paperized. There are no derivatives on the Mona Lisa or any other piece of valuable art. Derivatization of "wealth" is complete nonsense. Wealth is the endresult...the consolidation... of one's activities.

The fake goldprice, during the past 30 yrs, only served to "hide" the real price-inflations, read currency depreciations. That's about to be finished.

Watch how the (rising)Dow is acting as a counterweight for the (declining) dollar exchange rate, again.
But the masses seem not to trust this anymore and are looking for whatever IR-product they can find. The more they look (shop) the lower IRs go.
How can one take dollars in portfolio at the present obscene low IRs and suffer from a declining exchange rate on top of this misery ?

I keep having my questions about the goldmines as well. I strongly suspect that they will disappoint (keep on disappointing) a lot of hopers/speculators/traders ???
Yeah sure, goldmines disappoint because of the currency exch. rate situation. But isn't it because there is something going on with the currencies, that one is looking at gold !? Goldprice looks OK, why aren't the miners following (leading)...remain neutral ? Keep on watching.

Galearis@ Belgium#1290952/10/05; 09:29:40

Thanks, Belgium.
Also remember what ANOTHER(THOUGHTS!) said about the pricing system of gold encouraged by central bank interests: something to the sense of gold being value priced (to them) at some $5000 per ounce. (If one had to pick a figure, I presume.)

The sell the allure of paper profits was truly the aim of the giants behind the system.

To let the gold go elsewhere to stronger hands.

Best regards,


Galearis@Belgium...correction#1290962/10/05; 09:32:33

"The sell" should read "To sell"

Rimhre: Sprout#1290972/10/05; 09:43:01

Did you mean 361 or 461....
SproutRimh re: Guess#1290982/10/05; 09:53:37

Thought i'd get asked that

three sixty one is correct

when i guess HIGH, it goes down
if i guess LOW, it should go ?? ;)

Just a guess friend, no rhyme no reason

SproutRimh#1290992/10/05; 10:05:40

it appears to be working

i shoulda guessed lower

GoldiloxDeficit Disorder#1291002/10/05; 10:10:26


"We have been watching the progress of the US dollar ever since the web bots made their recent call for a loss of equilibrium (which will become apparent in retrospect) happening about a week ago. Today, we not only worry about the chance of China revaluing its currency, a move which with a single stroke could rapidly increase the rate of inflation in the U.S., but which would also point out to the entire thinking world that China is now calling the shots. More fuel for the fire is out today as the trade deficit has soared again. We frankly expect the market to continue drifting down for quite a while now. How far is down? Other than today's action, it will all be driven by future events.

A bit of math is interesting to consider. If we take the US GDP (story out earlier this week) less federal spending ($9.158 trillion) and we back out the $0.6177 trillion we see that 6.74% of the GDP is made up of borrowed funds. Put another way, we can see how the federal budget plan of the Bush administration depends on continued foreign deficits in order to make sense. A real reduction in the balance of trade deficit would tighten the stranglehold of debt on government which is why you don't see members of Congress rushing about to close the gap - we need it or government services would need to be cut even further than the budget proposed!

Let me repeat that: The reason that government is not doing anything about the trade deficit is that it too depends on the deficit to make ends meet and without a trade deficit, there would have to be even more federal belt tightening. Fix the deficit talk is therefore all hype and no substance - voter entertainment, folks, voter entertainment!"


More ponderings on the behind-the-scenes economic model by George Ure. If the dollar slide is supposed to balance the trade gap, where will the "guns and butter" financing come from? Interesting viewpoint.

Money is piling into the bond market this week, as the ten-year bond pounds the 4.0% threshold. AG's conundrum is raising rates to attract government financing or continued falling rates to attract SM market specs.

Can you say "rock and a hard place?"

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Experience first-hand the unifying power, security, and staying-power of gold#1291012/10/05; 10:13:02">gold 20 franc coins
Lothar of the Hill People$$$$$ 420.0 $$$$$$#1291022/10/05; 10:19:39

Lothar reads the USAGOLD Forum daily because Lothar receives much insight and encouragement. The Hill people are generally unaware of the wealth preservation of GOLD, but tend to put their trust in the intestinal fortitude of the great albino bats which inhabit the dark recesses of our ancestrial home. Lothan enjoys communion with others of like mind.

I am Lothar of the Hill People.

RimhRe: Sprout#1291032/10/05; 10:25:31

Thanks for the clarification. I've considered using that strategy myself on other occasions.... So far so good - thanks for taking one for the team!
servantHeart$$$$$ 419.8 $$$$$$#1291042/10/05; 10:36:39

I read UsaGold Forum because there appears to be a few people who understand the world of finances and have taken the time to post their knowledge here. We novices can gain some insight to assist us in making wise choices for our investment portfolio.
Gandalf the WhiteThe Beautiful WATERFALLS have returned to the US$ Chart ! <;-)#1291052/10/05; 10:37:25

Gandalf the WhiteAND, here is the picture of the Beautiful CROSSOVER !! <;-)#1291062/10/05; 10:49:55$HUI,uu[h,a]daoayiay[pb200!f][vc60][iut!Uh89,21!Lp88,21,3]&pref=G


RimhGandalf#1291072/10/05; 11:12:44

Wow! What a precipitous decline in the USD after one last attempt to drive it up! Those currency traders take no prisoners and have little mercy for the FED.... How "controlled" do you think this latest decline will be? I presume the next fight will be closer to the 0.80 level.
Gandalf the WhiteSir Rimh's Question !#1291082/10/05; 11:19:21

IMVHO, The 84 level that was sooooo tough to break on the UPSIDE, will now be SUPPORT on the DOWNSIDE (for a while), before heading DOWN to "test" the 80 LEVEL for the LAST TIME !

Gandalf the WhiteHELLO Sir Rich ???? Are you out smoothing Concrete ?#1291092/10/05; 11:23:50


BelgianUS lawmakers oppose IMF goldsales (Reuters)#1291102/10/05; 11:38:59

My interpretation : No aboveground gold for redistribution.
Keep on plundering the miners (Tanzania-Peru) and let them swet for razorthin profit margins. Might have it wrong, because of my bad character.

BelgianN. Korea#1291112/10/05; 11:58:52

Funny timing for repeating that they have nukes. If Iran should start selling (trading) oil for euro...they will need some support from those who buy (and need) the Iranian oil (and gas). Is N. Korea their pitbull ?

POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 2/10/05, Thursday at HIGH NOON (12:00) Denver time !

Entries listed in order of decending values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (2/9/05; 17:15:29MT - msg#: 129072)

$$$$ $488.5 $$$$ Merlinsen (2/8/05; 10:00:14MT - msg#: 129004)

$$$$ $454.7 $$$$ Moegold (2/8/05; 14:03:53MT - msg#: 129019)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Beamer (2/9/05; 01:35:04MT - msg#: 129036)

$$$$ $432.2 $$$$ madmark (2/9/05; 11:12:28MT - msg#: 129051)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ spikedog (02/04/05; 22:50:22MT - msg#: 128898)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 11:27:26MT - msg#: 128871)

$$$$ $426.8 $$$$ The Hoople (2/10/05; 07:55:24MT - msg#: 129093)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck (02/04/05; 17:10:03MT - msg#: 128888)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (02/04/05; 16:52:40MT - msg#: 128886)

$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ lifer (02/04/05; 15:22:20MT - msg#: 128883)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ slingshot (02/04/05; 15:35:11MT - msg#: 128885)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (2/10/05; 10:19:39MT - msg#: 129102)

$$$$ $419.8 $$$$ servantHeart (2/10/05; 10:36:39MT - msg#: 129104)

$$$$ $418.2 $$$$ Slowman (2/10/05; 05:21:16MT - msg#: 129089)

$$$$ $415.9 $$$$ Smeagol (02/05/05; 15:44:17MT - msg#: 128925)

$$$$ $412.1 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (2/9/05; 12:33:20MT - msg#: 129055)

$$$$ $409.0 $$$$ YGM (02/08/05; 04:06:16MT - msg#: 128999)

$$$$ $408.1 $$$$ Henri (2/9/05; 08:02:33MT - msg#: 129041)

$$$$ $407.1 $$$$ 2023 (2/6/05; 23:18:03MT - msg#: 128961)

$$$$ $405.6 $$$$ Chally (2/8/05; 23:34:04MT - msg#: 129034)

$$$$ $400.0 $$$$ DryWasher (2/8/05; 10:57:34MT - msg#: 129009)

$$$$ $398.0 $$$$ DoubleEagle (02/08/05; 01:09:39MT - msg#: 128998)

$$$$ $361.0 $$$$ Sprout (2/10/05; 07:09:43MT - msg#: 129092)

AND -- In case you missed the CALL TO CONTEST ----

Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 10:53:55MT - msg#: 128869)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the April COMEX contract (GCJ05) on Wednesday, February 16, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, February 13th.

The "Price of Gold" (POG) Contest winner -- the person with the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a nineteenth Century 20 Lira Italian Umberto I coin, (which may be seen at the following LINK).
These coins were Minted between 1880 - 1897 with a Fineness of 0.900, which therefore contains an "Actual Gold Content" of 0.1867 net fine troy ounces of pure GOLD !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2005 Gold Contract (GCJ05) on the date of Wednesday, February 16, 2005.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $421.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $421.0 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! "FIRST COME" has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Sunday, February 13, 2005.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY--- (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will be REQUIRED to answer the DIFFICULT and controversial subject by "Determining and COMPLETING the following statement": <;-)

I read the USAGOLD Forum ( how often? ) because ------ (in 25 words or more!).

LET the CONTEST continue !
"COME ON IN" all you Lurkers ! Now is the time to get your Posting Code from the TownCrier at the Link at the top of this PAGE !

Gandalf the WhiteThe COMEX Gold SETTLEMENT price today, was ---#1291132/10/05; 12:19:24

Gold GCJ05 Apr '05 COMEX Contract
Open = $414.8 HIGH = $420.1 low = $413.1
Settlement = $418.7 Change = +$4.2

slingshotTo Da MOON!#1291142/10/05; 12:57:25

Houston, we have achieved Crossover.
Roger that, Gold Wing. You're clear for Throttle Up.
Houston, Going Throttle Up!

Keep the Faith.

Black BladeU.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed to $56.4 Bln in December #1291152/10/05; 13:29:54


Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade gap narrowed 4.9 percent in December from a record as the price of foreign oil sank and exports jumped. The deficit for all of 2004 grew 24 percent to the widest ever.

Black Blade: Of course this trade gap is compared to the "revised" data for the previous month. The Decmeber number has yet to be "revised" and those revisions are invariably revised upward. We could see yet another "surprise". All in all, the data suggests that the US dollar will weaken further - much further. Of course Gold and Silver will very likely respond in a positive trend.

Black BladeCorrection - Trade Gap data#1291162/10/05; 13:33:30

BTW, the trade gap for November was a rare revision downward. The trend however, paints a "grim" picture for the so-called "strong dollar policy" which in reality is a "policy of benign neglect".

- Black Blade

Black BladeRising Rates Signal New Gold Rush, Precious Metals Expert Predicts #1291172/10/05; 13:41:02


SANTA MONICA, Calif., Feb. 10 /PRNewswire/ -- With the plummeting dollar putting pressure on the Fed, interest rates are likely to keep climbing in 2005. This could set into motion a chain of events that raises the price of gold to record heights. So says Kevin DeMeritt, President of Lear Financial, a precious metal asset management company.

"It's all happened before," DeMeritt said. "Interest rates turned higher in the 60s and kept rising for fifteen years up to an unbelievable 19%. Meanwhile, gold soared from $36 to $850 for a whopping 2,261% increase." DeMeritt believes a strong link still exists between higher rates and higher gold. He also believes history is about to repeat itself. "Conditions are similar to the 70s. Oil was up 400% then and oil is up 400% over the last six years now. We have the same high deficits, the same costly war, the same rising rates. And now we may see the same record gold prices."

Black Blade: Now this guy understands. "Real Rates" are extremely positive for the precious metals. Inflation is outpacing the nominal Fed rate and the "real rate" is effectively negative - a potent stimulous for Gold and Silver. Add the twin deficits and it is just darn volatile.

Rimh$$$$$$ 431.1 $$$$$$#1291182/10/05; 14:57:56

I read the USAGold Forum almost daily since I was first drawn in by reading the classic Oil for Gold papers which struck a cord. I have been returning ever since for the insight into the market machinations and subtle undercurrents of the gold and silver markets not clearly evident (or completely and purposely obscured) in mainstream media.
TownCrierForeign cenbanks sell T-notes for third week#1291192/10/05; 15:07:33

NEW YORK, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Foreign central banks were net sellers of U.S. Treasuries for the third week in a row in the latest week, Federal Reserve data showed on Thursday.

The amounts sold so far have been minor compared with their massive holdings, but could still heighten recent concerns that foreign central banks were losing their appetite for buying ever more U.S. debt.

The Fed said its overall holdings of Treasury and agency debt kept for overseas central banks fell by $4.98 billion in the week ending Feb. 9, to stand at $1.339 trillion.

The breakdown of custody holdings showed overseas central banks sold a net $4.66 billion of Treasuries, on top of a $12 billion drop the previous week.

^-----(from url)-----^

Light trimming of the dollar overhang...


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1291202/10/05; 15:24:24">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Thursday Market Excerpts

U.S. gold futures closed at a nine-day high Thursday on the back of a rejuvenated euro, as the dollar failed to capitalize on news the massive U.S. trade deficit narrowed in December, traders and analysts said.

"The dollar hadn't taken a beating like this for a couple of days. It was a pretty safe play to buy euros and sell dollars and I think the metals market ran with that," said Scott Meyers at Pioneer Futures.

COMEX April gold settled at $418.70, up $4.20 on the day.

U.S. lawmakers have told U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow to oppose proposals for the sale of the IMF's gold.

In a letter to Snow, 12 senators -- from mainly U.S. mining states -- said sales of the IMF's 103 million ounces of gold reserves, the world's third-largest, would hurt gold producers and cause job losses.

Meanwhile, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed in December to $56.4 billion, just a tad below analysts' forecasts for $57 billion, as oil import prices had their biggest monthly fall in almost 14 years, the Commerce Department said.

But the annual trade gap still widened more than 24 percent in 2004 to a record $617.7 billion.

The November trade gap was revised down to $59.3 billion from $60.3 previously, but it remained a record, with December's gap the second highest.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire, market prices)----


SA gold mining in danger of floundering

U.S. trade deficit hits record, pushed by imported oil, cars, food

Dollar Down as Trade Gap Worries Reemerge

Dollar turns lower as bullish run loses steam

R PowellGandalf#1291212/10/05; 15:30:13

No concrete work recently as the ground is frozen and too few residential builders will invest the time and $$ needed to heat the house or garage that needs a floor. Being an engineer, you know that pouring concrete on frozen ground is a no-no. Besides, the mix freezes before we can even finish it.

But, as you mentioned, silver made my day today!

Often there seems to be some news (usually just talk) that mark the turning points in the metals' prices, especially that yellow gold. Have the combined recent talk of possible IMF gold sales and the recent government talk of lowering the budget deficits now marked another turning point? Also, the clairvoyent Towncrier's chart of Tuesday shows a possible bottom of $412.58. I'm not sure where the 8 cents came from but the chart's appearance, at precisely the moment that the latest chicken entrail reading had predicted that a "sign" would appear is just (imho) too much to be attributed to coincidence.

So, combining the governments' timing of deficit reduction talk (BS?), the inaction of the IMF after making such a brou-haha about selling, the timely appearance of Randy's chart, along with the wizard's USDollar index charts that show that the buck may soon fall again, can we now conclude that gold and silver have satisfied whatever downside numbers needed to be touched this time around..??
I don't know, of course, but doesn't all this sound just as good as any "spin" you might hear on the peoples' television stock picking channel? Now, if I can just get my frantic Cramer imitation down pat, I'll be ready for my TV debut.

TownCrierA frank discussion of mining economics and national WEALTH#1291222/10/05; 16:03:32

HEADLINE: SA gold mining in danger of floundering

(Feb 11, miningweekly) -- It was unfair to expect South Africa's deep-level gold mines to continue operating profitably at the current low rand gold prices - and a public-private forum should be opened to debate resources industry solutions, Randgold Resources CEO Mark Bristow suggested to the media in Cape Town yesterday.

Bristow said that ... irrespective of management excellence, it was impossible to continue when the gold price turned against a gold operation.

The absence of the concept of public-private partnership was putting South Africa's gold-industry at risk.

While it was unfair to put the main focus on managements' ability or lack of it in coping with the current low rand gold prices, the decision of some companies to be totally unhedged was also exacerbating the problem.

Gold-mining companies had exposed themselves solely to the gold price by choosing to be unhedged had disregarded the inadvisability of doing this while carrying debt on their balance sheets.

He said that unhedged companies needed to be debt-free equity companies and should not be carrying large debt while being unhedged, a factor that some had overlooked.

Even though shareholders spent a lot of time telling management to get rid of hedging... "When the gold price turns against an unhedged company, the shareholders leave," he recalled. But best practice was for managements to uphold their long-term responsibilities to all their stakeholders, and not just to shareholders, and to stand firm on hedging when they took on debt.

With an openpit operation..., ceasing operations was a far less serious step than South Africa would have in closing deep-level mines that were extremely challenging to reopen.

Because deep-level infrastructure deteriorated so quickly, reopening required redevelopment from scratch at great expense, Bristow warned.

The negative impact of mine closure on employment was a crucial factor that all South Africans needed to take into account.

South Africa continued to have significant gold resources and closure of mines would result in loss of not only reserve classification, but also resource classification, significantly reducing South Africa's national asset base.

That would require some high-level executive decision-making by companies and the government jointly.

In his view there was no sense whatsoever in allowing not only reserves, but also resources to be expunged from the national asset register.

The South African government was in the process of doing what so many other African governments had done before it - becoming the custodian of mineral wealth.

That action had resulted in government becoming the director of South Africa's mineral wealth, resulting in mining no longer becoming a solely profit-driven private-sector pursuit.

Mineral-resource responsibility had become that of South Africa's Department of Minerals and Energy.

It could not very well be the result of State that South African citizens would be kept out of work in the mining industry.

If the State could keep 200 000 people in a job, it would be seen as being in the national interest.

"I am not sure that the correct level of debate is taking place in South Africa," said Bristow.

^------(see url for this full, important article)----^

Lot's of food for thought.

How can South Africa meet its objectives by selective nationalization? In for a penny, in for a pound; it can hardly bring some mines into the national fold without doing likewise for all.

As a diversification-minded investor, you have to assess the inherent risk of nationalization and other controls, and management's operational decisions such as hedging or even "low grading" when prices rise that limit your "participation" in the rising power of gold.

As a minor investor lacking a decisionary stake in operations or politics, given the unknowns, the prudent course of action is to invest in the product -- gold, free and clear -- and leave the risk and worry to the principals.


mackattack$$$$ 434.10 $$$$$$$$$#1291232/10/05; 16:14:44

I read usa gold forum because i no longer trust the media to tell me the truth..tgfi,thank God for the internet!
mackattack$$$ 434.10 $$$$#1291242/10/05; 16:17:25

Opps not 25 words,i read the usa gold forun because i no longer trust the tv media to tell us the truth,nor do i trust the printed media.By the time they tell us to buy anything or warn about any collapse it will be far too late.
Federal_Reserves$$$$$ $418.20 $$$$$$$#1291252/10/05; 16:42:30

$$$$$ $418.20 $$$$$$$

I read the USAGOLD Forum about twice day because the opinion here is worth reading and pondering upon.

GoldendomeTo the Table and Sir Gandalf#1291262/10/05; 17:14:05

Sir Gandalf: I make a motion before the table that Slowman's message # 129089, be stricken from the record as inappropriate, and his price guess be disallowed for not answering in any way the question as asked in the contest rules! ---Rules! --we must have rules.
OvSGoldendom. What's the matter with you?#1291272/10/05; 17:44:18

Slowman tells you right up front:
I'm slow, man.
Technically he has fulfilled the
Just because you are politically so
incorrect that you must discriminate
against slow men, and you disagree
with his observation that Another
and FOA have left the forum and
therefore he is only reading twice
a week instead of thrice...I say,
let him be... :-) OvS

Golden LionheartGold about to take off?#1291282/10/05; 18:39:42

LeSinOIL - EURO & IRAN NUKES - SCREAMS & GROANS by BUSH & US$#1291292/10/05; 18:59:02

Bush & US$ - must now, know for sure that Iran will strictly price export oil in Euro and in any other barter/currency, of any other nation, other than the US$.

However, Iran is not Iraq, yes, no? Iran has acquired many Russian, Chinese and "Old"-Europe friends. Strangely enough Iran boasts of being a democracy as well. Interesting times
as we witness Rumsfeld groveling around "Old"-Europe & NATO.
Watch - Gold speak (shout) - Cheers "S"

FlaccusSloeman#1291302/10/05; 18:59:04

He was talking about Gold Eagle not USAGold.

Or perhaps he is lost.


That's it.

Someone send up a flare

WaveriderSlowman#1291312/10/05; 19:08:22

I agree - I think he's lost/disorientated! Maybe too much Goldschlagger?

It certainly is not politically correct to enter a contest here and snub your host by announcing that you've left and are reading another forum! Yes - I believe that he's disoriented...he is certainly CALLED to the Table Round for golden clarification...Slowman...where art thou?

PRITCHORE SLOWMAN - - - - - - - - #1291322/10/05; 19:18:31

Has no one else noticed that he reads ANOTHER web site twice a week - -no refernce to this one! - ha
Gandalf the WhiteALL !!#1291332/10/05; 19:37:55

Having done more than many LURKERS, Sir Slowman has obtained a password and POSTED a message. Sir Slowman, who was very candid about himself, even gave a rather good guess for the POG Contest, AND has not everyone seen that the "necessary" response to the STATEMENT segment of the RULES is broken more often that adequately fulfilled !

Sir Federal_Reserves (2/10/05; 16:42:30MT - msg#: 129125)-- may I suggest that you should try for a HIGHER number as that one has been taken!

Sir Smeagol, do you smell a conspiracy brewing ?
Townie -- get the delete button warmed up as there may be a FOODFIGHT !

FlaccusGandalf#1291342/10/05; 19:43:18

I have examined the patient, Slowman, and I am going to suggest a right frontal bisectomy. I've seen this before. It's a clear case of 'lost in space.'
This is not a problem. Please do the workups and have Dr. Waverider report to the operating room immediately. She's the only one who can handle this.

Dr. F

Gandalf the WhiteCALLING Dr. Waverider --- STAT #1291352/10/05; 19:52:21

Dr. Waverider, Dr. Flaccus needs you to report to the operating room immediately. He says that you are the only one who can handle this golden emergency !

Noble1Slowman#1291362/10/05; 19:53:47

Poor guy. He just needs to visit USAG more often and he will be up to speed.
slingshotWait! Wait!#1291372/10/05; 19:54:17

Sir Slowman suffers from Bilinkual Directitis.
That is being very direct at the wrong website.
A few Model Negra's should cure him.

Brilliant! No thats Guiness ;0)

Noble1Dr. Waverider#1291382/10/05; 19:57:58

I've heard that a heavy dose of N2O2 (laughing gas) sometimes helps in these situations.
Cavan ManLeSin#1291392/10/05; 20:16:33

Iran also has a large, well equipped conventional military in relative terms; perhaps prepared to join their Shia brothers across the way? I do not understand where the neocon leverage is with this crowd. Unfortunately, gold will likely rise hard on the missteps. The US Chiefs of Staff must be very nervous; not unlike Hitler's General Staff as he invaded the Rhineland, Austria and Sudetenland--all the while France could crushed him. However, what could be done then and what can be done now? Follow orders!
WaveriderSir Gandalf and Dr Flaccus#1291402/10/05; 20:50:35

Thank you for the consultation of this most interesting patient. I would need to agree with Sir Slingshot's diagnosis of "Bilinkual Directitis". "Lost in Space" is a more severe presentation of the syndrome and, as you've suggested Dr. Flaccus, usually requires more extreme treament such as right frontal bisectomy. At the moment, I don't believe that Sir Slowman exhibits the classical signs that would warrant complete bisectomy. However, I think that if his symptoms do not alleviate fairly promptly, then he may deteriorate rapidly and require either a frontal bisectomy or frontal labotomy. Now, I'm sure that Sir Slowman would respond, "I'd rather have a bottle in front of me than have a frontal labotomy," so in the interest of patient advocacy, I'd follow Sir Slingshots recommendation and treat with Negra Modelo! Failing that, a good whoof of NO2 would suffice before a decision to slice 'n dice, as per Sir Noble1's recommendation. Let's hope that Sir Slowman gets up to speed shortly.
LeSin(No Subject)#1291412/10/05; 21:59:05

Cavan Man said:

"However, what could be done then and what can be done now? Follow orders!"

My eyes first saw the sunlight in 1945, when I also began to breath the common air. I am not to good at resolving historical problems, as the benefit of hind-sight renders all suggestions for solutions useless. No one trusts any shoulda, coulda or might have solutions anyway. Let us deal with reality. Not optimistic dreams nor pessimistic views, just plain reality of looking at the elephant in the room and being willing to say "hey there is a large elephant in the room". Don't know if it is an optimistic elephant or a pessimistic elephant, but it sure is a big one." How big, they yell?

As to the "following of orders" I don't do that well, I am pleased to say that I am a pacifist and a consciences objector to any war and the killing of my fellow man, women and children any where on God's good earth.

Which in a long way around brings me to my point of simple economics and simple suggestions to problems that have been made to appear complex;

If I can be cut a little slack and be allowed a few 'stretches of the imagination' or just maybe some simple-home spun logic of "good-house-keeping-economics". You know, the kind of conservative economics that includes savings of a fixed percentage of ones income to buy wealth assets, let us say GOLD by example.

The USA just might want to think about paying for the oil it needs, in whatever currency the seller demands. Instead of protecting their fiat paper dollar with WMDs and forcing the use of a very overspent currency, for a resource that it uses far too much of. If you have ever suffered liquidity problems or been near bankruptcy, you will understand the way the USA carries on: Credit infinitum, boasts of its' huge consumption, "we are the engine room of the world's economy", if you don't trade with us where will you get your hard currency (US$). All this is changing.


I think it may have something to do with the capitalist system and basic economics; I have something you want, you need it and want to buy it. You must pay me in whatever I demand or there is no deal. However we see a different picture when one trades with the USA for oil up until now. The changes, in my view from here on will be swift and without much control of the levers.

Get as much physical gold as you can afford, before "ANOTHER" starts to rule the central bank reserves or become significant and growing percentage of those stated reserves. How much is unstated?

Just on man's view - Cheers "S"

GoldendomeGetting Prepped!#1291422/10/05; 22:11:00

You folks: Lady Waverider, Flaccus, Gandalf, Noble-- Are crackin' me up with this brain surgery program for the Slowman. On paper--here, that's probably a good idea. In the movie, "One flew over the Cookoo's nest" Jack Nicholson suffered the fait, to correct his behavior.

I felt the post an affront to everyone here, and in particular poor taste while attempting to win the man's Gold! As I looked at the context and wording of the message, I felt the writer had no confusion as to where he was and knew exactly what he said. But, 'nuff said. Carry on with the surgery.

LeSinCorrection #1291432/10/05; 22:11:33

cheers - and I am away "S"

SmeagolThe only cure...#1291452/10/05; 23:03:26

...that we sees as having any merit is, of course, just a breath of fresh Gold... mayhap even Sir Slowman wins, firsst time lucky! Read it again carefully, O mirthful ones... he may have meant exactly what he ssaid, after all:

"I read [that OTHER site] about 2 times a week, mostly because the better posters have left !!!!!!!!!!!!!."


YGMSmeagol...#1291462/10/05; 23:52:51

re: Slowfella...That's exactly what I took from it also...Seldom over there so coversely here is where he reads????
Goldendome$$$$$$$$$$ 417.50 $$$$$$$$$#1291482/11/05; 00:29:51

I read the USA Gold forum nearly daily and on some days, more often than I really should. The forum has the easiest format to follow, a diverse cast of posters, and a wide variety of subjects introduced--dealing with gold and the economy. The forums rules are generally easy to comply with while posting; the posters usually polite.
968An update on the "not Free, not Fair" - report.#1291492/11/05; 00:46:15

Interview with John Embry.
TownCrierDespite its FinMin support, IMF gold sales not thoroughly in vogue in South Africa#1291502/11/05; 01:19:18

11 Feb 2005 -- Finance minister Trevor Manuel's support for the International Monetary Fund's proposal to sell gold reserves was "worrisome", the National Union of Mineworkers said on Thursday.

The union also said it supported mineral and energy minister, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka's, opposition to the proposal.

"What the IMF is proposing as a solution to a crisis created by the G7 countries themselves -- countries that continue consuming world resources unabated -- is a recipe for disaster, hunger and disease. It would be wise for other alternatives aimed at eradicating debt to be looked at, instead of this one that will push the poor further into the abyss of poverty."

^------(from url)------^

To help him arrive at his unique supportive position on sales, who has been buttering Trevor's bread?


BelgianGold and currencies :#1291512/11/05; 02:41:05

South Afrika : The merger between the two biggies HMG/GF is conditional >>> NO job loses !?
Goldminers can't even rationalise as to remain profitable. The state (political economy) decides on the (strong)rand...(high)employment...(low)profits !

Watch the "gold-dollar-index" chart (link) and think about what Brian Bloom (Australia) wishes to say :
gold-dollar-index = $-POG X USDX/100 >>> Meaning : Is the $-POG rising faster/higher than the declining USD-index ?
On the chart we see Another multi-year Maginot line = 375 (horizontal resistance line) !!!
Today : $416 x 84/100 = 349

But look at the multi year "pattern" of this chart : A perfect saucer bottom, waiting to break through the 375 resistance and signal that the $-POG says byby to the dollar-index (exchange rate).

Up until this happens, goldminers will remain plundered...or...forced to lower the exchange rate of their currency against the almighty dollar. In other words...the dollar forces all currencies to remain a dollar-derivative...THROUGH GOLD MANIPULATION !!!

And here we face the dilemma : What happens to the dollar when the goldprice starts floating, without any strings attached to the $-currency (its exchange rate against all currencies)!?

That's the reason why gold is being re-distributed amongst the non dollar block. As an anticipation on the (coming) dollar/gold break.

More thoughts anyone ? TIA.

Belgian@Townie#1291522/11/05; 02:53:30

Ask Madame Jessica + husband, where they get "the butter" !?
And BTW...Russia bars all foreign companies from bidding for their precious resources ! (There are a few very specific exceptions on this).
It's getting hot and when Iran starts its own "oil-exchange"...might getting hotter !?

SundeckRussian resources#1291532/11/05; 04:26:03

Sir Belgian, you are is a bit on Russia protecting its resources...oil, gas and gold...

Not surprising,given the gowing realisation that oil and gas are going to become ever more critical components in the wellbeing of the "industrial state" in the future...

The Australian Foreign Investment Review Board has given the go-ahead for Xstrata to take over WMC Resources today (very large Olympic Dam mine - copper, uranium and gold). Takeover of Woodside Petroleum was blocked about a year ago. Uranium exports (energy and military applications) are tightly controlled and will be dealt with separately/specifically under the terms of the Xstrata takeover.

We are going to see more of this...nations protecting their assets. I notice Canada has expressed disquiet about the intrusion of Chinese interests into its mining sector...

US plus UK et al. focussing on the ME...the only region capable of supplying their energy requirements in the short to medium term...


Gondolin$$$$421.00$$$$#1291542/11/05; 04:42:20

I read the gold forum as often as possible, (which is not as often as I would like or used to) because it brings me all the good news from like minded people with the knowledge of ages shared for all, discussed and argued. The forum still brings daily the hope and belief that one day gold will be unshackled, and as much as this sounds shallow and selfish [:)], I can one day relax and sit back on easy street and enjoy the benefits my savvy investment into the ancient metal of kings shall bring. Good luck to all.
Belgian@Sundeck (all)#1291552/11/05; 07:39:10

Bear in mind Sir, that the competition (fight) for the control of all these precious resources, is only the very beginning of the story. All these resources will soon *demand* an appropiate counter-value !!! Do you understand now how the euro numeraire and freegold will be experienced as closely associated !? Of course, this takes time to work it out. Note, that J. Rogers, as a commodity viewer, is therefor not allowed to promote gold openly and publicly. That's why he can see gold only as becoming a precious wealth metal when his little daughter retires.
Idem dito for J. Embry (986 post) who isn't bringing the euro and oil into the gold equation, either.

Gold should remain into the "commodity" sphere for the general public, whilst many know very well that gold is on the verge of playing its original wealth role, once again.
All CBs are been thrown in the same anti-gold bin ! What a terrible mistake.
I remain convinced that all CBs know very well what they are specifically doing and why they are doing it.
Gold as wealth, is too powerful to bring it transparently in the open to the public ! Simple, no ?

YGMAll You Gold Traders...#1291562/11/05; 09:35:57

I think you owe Myself and Sir Smeagol and all those south of his contest guess a thank you for putting the hex on the Gold Short crowd (smile)...Glad we could help...YGM
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Buy gold, win gold. Get in on the raffle for one of two Napoleon Bonaparte gold coins.#1291582/11/05; 09:53:46">gold 20 franc coins
GoldiloxCOMEX silver soars to 2-mth high early, gold gains#1291592/11/05; 10:30:19;ZPOCAZ5UWCPTOCRBAE0CFEY?type=goldMktRpt


NEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuters) - U.S. silver futures shot to their loftiest in two months on Friday and gold traded at eight-day highs, as a softer dollar late this week catapulted the metals up through technical resistance, dealers said.

"It was short covering, and there was fund buying overnight that pushed this thing up," said a silver floor broker. "And the trade is helping it along. It just snowballed."

By 11:05 a.m. (1605 GMT), silver for March delivery had surged 24.5 cents, or 3.5 percent, to $7.21 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division. It moved from $6.945 to $7.24 -- its priciest since Dec. 8. The market rose 37.5 cents on Thursday.

Spot silver hit $7.16/19, way above Thursday's late New York quote at $6.93/96. Friday's London fix was at $6.98.

The gray metal extended its rally because, unlike in the gold market, players did not currently see central bank selling in the market, which allowed it to rise almost untethered, said one analyst.

"We've seen a technical break to the upside in silver, and that is because we don't see central bank selling in the silver market," said Ian MacDonald, managing director of precious metals at International Asset Holding Corp."


No CB action to "hold" silver down. "The media is the message!" However, gold seems to be straining at its dollar tether, as well.

Gandalf, release the hounds!

TownCrierBits and pieces#1291602/11/05; 10:38:03

NEW YORK, Feb 11 (Reuters) -

"The dollar is whipping around and still very much in a trading range," said Ian MacDonald, managing director of precious metals at International Assets Holding Corp. "The market is trying to decide which is the weaker of the currencies -- the dollar or the euro? Or, is it the yen?

"Technically and fundamentally, gold is looking good," MacDonald added. "It is very cheap in foreign currency terms. If you look at gold in the euro or the Indian rupee, it's a basic fire sale. So, there is your floor. I do see the market moving higher."

^------(end of excerpt)-----^

This week was certainly the safest of times for vested interests to briefly dunk gold to its recent lows because much of Asia was on holiday ("Chinese dealers were mostly absent and markets were closed in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore") thus limiting the potential for physical offtake to capitalize upon the pricing bargains.

Without a holiday as an excuse, were you immobilized like a deer in the headlights, or did you boldly charge in, knowing a bargain when you see it?

Call USAGOLD-Centennial for a helpful consultation on portfolio diversification today. Ask about krugerrands. Ask about Swiss 20 franc gold coins.



USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Put a Solid Foundation Under Your Portfolio#1291612/11/05; 10:43:01

Swiss Gold Francs

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call USAGOLD - Centennial for Arrangements

TownCrierDid you know...?#1291622/11/05; 11:13:31

Did you know that those pesky incidental expenses associated with your gold investment (such as shipping, bankwire fee, or safe-deposit box fees) can all be factored in as part of your investment's "cost basis", and are subsequently recoverable against profits as an untaxable element?

Many people don't know that, but now you do.

Similarly, your purchase of investment aids (such as "The ABCs of Gold Investing" book, second edition) are also expensible and therefore untaxed against investment gains.

Unlike real estate, there's no annual property taxed assessed while you hold gold, and neither are you burdened with mowing lawns, removing snow, or repairing roofs.

What are you waiting for? Choose gold. It's as easy as a toll free phone call to Denver.



TownCrierNew to gold investing? Request your FREE investor information packet today!#1291632/11/05; 11:16:24

Complete the form and Jill will drop one in the mail for you early next week.


Federal_ReservesThe question is - do they really mean it? Or is it BS?#1291642/11/05; 11:20:17

Policies in place to cut US trade gap--US' Taylor
Fri Feb 11, 2005 01:00 PM ET
PALO ALTO, Calif., Feb 11 (Reuters) - Policymakers around the world are taking steps that should cut any risk stemming from global trade imbalances, a senior U.S. Treasury official said on Friday.
"I think there's a policy in place that is dealing with this," U.S. Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs John Taylor told an economics conference sponsored by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

"There's basically a three-part approach to dealing with it, trying to contain any risk that may be there," he said. Taylor cited efforts in the United States to cut government budget deficits and spur private savings, efforts overseas to spur growth and efforts by China to move toward greater exchange rate flexibility.

> This is the same group that all the while the dollar
> dropped claimed its policy was for a strong dollar.
> Treasury speak with forked tongue? And Greenspan
> the lame duck, seems to agree, and also provides
> support. Actions do speak louder than words though.

TownCrierFederal_Reserves, budget balancing abra-cadabra.#1291652/11/05; 11:32:37

One wonders how the federal government can float the idea of cutting budget deficits when only a few short breaths ago it said that, as the Social Security system is revamped and future pay-ins will be allowed to flow instead to private accounts, the government will endeavor to meet the payment obligations during this time of reduced inflow through borrowing $-trillions.



POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 2/11/05, Friday at HIGH NOON Denver time !

Entries listed in order of decending values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (2/9/05; 17:15:29MT - msg#: 129072)

$$$$ $488.5 $$$$ Merlinsen (2/8/05; 10:00:14MT - msg#: 129004)

$$$$ $454.7 $$$$ Moegold (2/8/05; 14:03:53MT - msg#: 129019)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Beamer (2/9/05; 01:35:04MT - msg#: 129036)

$$$$ $434.1 $$$$ mackattack (2/10/05; 16:14:44MT - msg#: 129123)

$$$$ $432.2 $$$$ madmark (2/9/05; 11:12:28MT - msg#: 129051)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ spikedog (02/04/05; 22:50:22MT - msg#: 128898)

$$$$ $431.1 $$$$ Rimh (2/10/05; 14:57:56MT - msg#: 129118)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 11:27:26MT - msg#: 128871)

$$$$ $426.8 $$$$ The Hoople (2/10/05; 07:55:24MT - msg#: 129093)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck (02/04/05; 17:10:03MT - msg#: 128888)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (02/04/05; 16:52:40MT - msg#: 128886)

$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ lifer (02/04/05; 15:22:20MT - msg#: 128883)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ slingshot (02/04/05; 15:35:11MT - msg#: 128885)

$$$$ $421.0 $$$$ Gondolin (2/11/05; 04:42:20MT - msg#: 129154)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (2/10/05; 10:19:39MT - msg#: 129102)

$$$$ $419.8 $$$$ servantHeart (2/10/05; 10:36:39MT - msg#: 129104)

$$$$ $418.2 $$$$ Slowman (2/10/05; 05:21:16MT - msg#: 129089)

$$$$ $417.5 $$$$ Goldendome (2/11/05; 00:29:51MT - msg#: 129148)

$$$$ $415.9 $$$$ Smeagol (02/05/05; 15:44:17MT - msg#: 128925)

$$$$ $412.1 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (2/9/05; 12:33:20MT - msg#: 129055)

$$$$ $409.0 $$$$ YGM (02/08/05; 04:06:16MT - msg#: 128999)

$$$$ $408.1 $$$$ Henri (2/9/05; 08:02:33MT - msg#: 129041)

$$$$ $407.1 $$$$ 2023 (2/6/05; 23:18:03MT - msg#: 128961)

$$$$ $405.6 $$$$ Chally (2/8/05; 23:34:04MT - msg#: 129034)

$$$$ $400.0 $$$$ DryWasher (2/8/05; 10:57:34MT - msg#: 129009)

$$$$ $398.0 $$$$ DoubleEagle (02/08/05; 01:09:39MT - msg#: 128998)

$$$$ $361.0 $$$$ Sprout (2/10/05; 07:09:43MT - msg#: 129092)


AND -- In case you missed the CALL TO CONTEST ----

Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 10:53:55MT - msg#: 128869)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the April COMEX contract (GCJ05) on Wednesday, February 16, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, February 13th.

The "Price of Gold" (POG) Contest winner -- the person with the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a nineteenth Century 20 Lira Italian Umberto I coin, (which may be seen at the following LINK).
These coins were Minted between 1880 - 1897 with a Fineness of 0.900, which therefore contains an "Actual Gold Content" of 0.1867 net fine troy ounces of pure GOLD !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2005 Gold Contract (GCJ05) on the date of Wednesday, February 16, 2005.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $421.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $421.0 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! "FIRST COME" has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Sunday, February 13, 2005.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY--- (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will be REQUIRED to answer the DIFFICULT and controversial subject by "Determining and COMPLETING the following statement": <;-)

I read the USAGOLD Forum ( how often? ) because ------ (in 25 words or more!).

LET the CONTEST continue !
"COME ON IN" all you Lurkers ! Now is the time to get your Posting Code from the TownCrier at the Link at the top of this PAGE !
AND ONLY Sir Federal_Reserves needs to RE-ENTER his prognostication ! <;-)

TownCrierHere's a good topic for "open forum" weekend -- Fri. noon to Sunday noon#1291672/11/05; 13:05:15§ion=news&news_id=dji-00072820050211&date=20050211&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw

HEADLINE: Activists Aim To Keep 'Dirty Gold' Out Of Valentine's Day

DENVER (Dow Jones)--All that glitters is not gold, say environmental and social activists who aim to raise awareness about "dirty" mining practices this Valentine's Day.

Valentine's Day is the No. 1 holiday for gold sales in the U.S., so it's the best time to let people know about irresponsible mining practices, said Payal Sampat, co-director of the "No Dirty Gold" campaign.

The campaign was launched on Valentine's Day a year ago, when Earthworks, an environmental group, Oxfam America and others teamed up with jewelry retailers, including Tiffany & Co., to get the word out about what they say are irresponsible mining practices.

One of the companies targeted in the campaign is Newmont Mining Corp., Denver, the world's largest gold producer. The campaigners oppose Newmont's submarine tailings disposal at its mining operations in Indonesia.

But Newmont, the recent target of several environmental protests globally, said it "strives to maintain a high level of environmental protection" at all of its operations, said spokesman Doug Hock.

"The use of subsea tailing placement was selected by the Indonesian government as a preferred alternative to land-based tailing management, given the region's high seismic activity, high level of rainfall and a limited amount of arable land," Hock said.

....her group is not trying to stop people from buying gold.

"The campaign is not a boycott - it's trying to shake up the way the gold industry works both on the mining side and the retail side," Sampat said.

^------(from url)----^

As new mines become more and more difficult to permit due to green opposition, gold that is already above ground will become dearer and dearer in price as would-be savers are left competing for available and recycled supply.

I have no doubt, however, that these environmentalists would have you believe that the alternative of PAPER gold is NOT dirty. Sure, it may be 'clean' environmentally, but socially it is not. The hands of its managers are stained with the blood, sweat, tears, and oppression of millions of aching and broken bodies yearning for a more level playing field throughout the world.


TownCrierRussian says 'no' to outside bidders on natural resources; IMF meddles with ECB policy#1291682/11/05; 13:25:32

HEADLINE: Foreign Firms Barred from Key Russian Tenders

MOSCOW, Feb. 11--Russia will bar foreign-owned firms from bidding for some of its most lucrative natural resources in 2005, officials said on Thursday...

The Natural Resources Ministry said companies will have to be at least 51 percent Russian-owned to take part in tenders for strategic oil and metals deposits.

The tender list includes the giant Sakhalin-3 oil field in Russia's far east, which US ExxonMobil had planned to develop.

It includes the Sukhoi Log gold field -- Eurasia's biggest...

The decision comes at a time when the Kremlin is seeking to reassert state control over strategically important sectors...

Analysts said the move was largely predictable as most countries tend to be protective when it comes to auctioning off big slices of their natural resources.
^-------(from url, near top)------^

HEADLINE: ECB Urged Not to Raise Rates

FRANKFURT, Germany, Feb. 11--The managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Rodrigo Rato, called on the European Central Bank Friday not to raise its key interest rates at a time when the guardian of the euro appears increasingly concerned about inflationary dangers in the eurozone, AFP reported.
^-------(from url, bottom)-----^

See also yesterday's posting about South African gold.

Get yours while the getting's good.


Rimhre: No Dirty Gold Campaign, Townie#1291692/11/05; 14:06:04

Maybe we should direct them to the massive number of trees being cut to satisfy AG's printing press and all that paper gold?

Seriously, though, what a misguided and broad-brush attack. I sent them an email expressing my disagreement with their tactics and their text. Why dirty gold? Why not dirty coal mining or zinc mining, etc.?

In reading some of their material at their website, they had the audacity to finger mining in many poor countries as a cause of corruption instead of the governments. By extension, are all other businesses in those places also responsible for the corruption? What a load of baloney! Most of the report was snippits of information from localized situations and applied to the industry as a whole; they completely ignored those who work hard at setting standards of environmental protection and social responsibility at or above North American levels, much less local government standards.

Of course, as we have discussed before, Townie, it is part and parcel of the efforts to undermine gold at a time when most people have little understanding of it's real value and worth. And in the final analysis, it won't change the ultimate repricing of not only gold, but all commdities which are in limited supply. It's just another smear campaign. But we will not be so easily fooled.....

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1291702/11/05; 14:19:57">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Friday Market Excerpts

COMEX gold hit a nine-day high, fueled by speculative fund buying due to a softer dollar late this week, dealers said.

Gold gained, drawing support from its bounce from $412 support previously and from apparent U.S. opposition to proposed sales of gold held by the International Monetary Fund to finance Third World debt relief, said analysts.

April gold climbed $3.30 to close at $422, trading from $417.70 to $423.40 -- its highest close since Feb. 2. Currencies mostly would dictate further direction in gold, dealers said, though geopolitical concerns also supported it.

"With the risk of further escalation in the tensions between Iran, North Korea and the U.S. over the weekend, traders are unlikely to go home short," Moore said.

Trade in gold has been thinned this week by the Lunar New Year and the Tokyo Commodity Exchange's closure on Friday for a national holiday.

----(see url for full news, 24-hr newswire)----

DryWasher China and the Final War for Resources by Bill Ridley#1291712/11/05; 14:21:09

The above link is well worth reading in my opinion. I even printed out a couple of copies (about ten pages) for friends who have trouble grasping what the future holds for us all when I try to describe it to them.


"Unrestricted War: China's Master Plan to Destroy America is a treatise for world domination written in 1999 by People's Liberation Army Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui. In order for China to become a dominant global power over the United States, the PLA emphasizes "The Final War over Resources", must be won."

"I hate to admit it, but the Chinese have done a masterful job. While America's media is hypnotizing us with frivolous entertainment such as American Idol or The Amazing Race, they are totally ignoring the perilous economic time bomb the Chinese have placed against us. The Government of China is holding U.S. currency and Treasury notes in a $1.9 trillion Treasury bond trap. When they pull the trigger on their "primary weapon," the dollar will crash and gold will break $600 in a heart beat and just keep going."

"The Chinese have the United States in a dollar and Treasury note trap which could put the economy in a tail spin with one news announcement that they are no longer buyers of U.S. debt."

End Snips:

DryWasher comment:
Whether one accepts Ridley's view that China is out to to defeat the United States, or if one sees it as China just looking out for it's own best interests, it probably doesn't make a lot of difference in the way it will all play out in the end in my opinion.
We must also remember that China and the U.S. are not the only major players involved, which further complicates matters. Interesting times ahead indeed.


TownCrierWorld Bank Warns Corruption Could Destroy Cambodian Economy#1291722/11/05; 14:27:53

Phnom Penh, 11 February 2005 -- The World Bank called on Cambodia this week to drastically curb corruption, or face isolation from the world's free trade markets. The country may have begun to put its house in order.

World Bank President James Wolfensohn says the three greatest obstacles to Cambodia's growth are "corruption, corruption, corruption."

According to a World Bank survey, as much as one-quarter to one-third of a foreign investor's profits in Cambodia are being siphoned off by corruption that takes place at all levels of economic activity.

^-----(from url)------^

Is it really so hard to understand why so many individuals around the world trust only physical gold as the means to maintain their accummulated wealth -- savings?


BelgianIMF urges ECB NOT to raise its rates (TC) !!!#1291732/11/05; 14:30:38

Simple conclusion : Please, support the dollar.
That's why today the <gold-dollar-index> has risen : $-POG x USDX/100 is up. The goldprice rises more than the dollar declines.

On the basis of this gold-dollar-index, I think we can draw one very specific line in the sand. The dots that form the line :
- USDX = 80
- $-POG = $ 435
- €-POG + 350 €
- €/$ = 1,35
IMVHO, the dollar, through the IMF, is asking the ECB to take this line into consideration and support the dollar as to not cross this line !?

Add the IMF-gold hulabaloo to this and conclude that the €-$ competition is fierce. No substantional goldprice decline is allowed anymore. And the euro wishes to cooperate on the orderly unwinding. The dollar is admitting its weakness.

Anyone with another interpretation ?

GoldenBear$$$$$ $423.30 $$$$$#1291742/11/05; 14:35:04

I read the USAGOLD Forum occasionally because the information that I read on this board I hope will give me a better understanding on how gold is manipulated. There is so much information posted on here that not only deals with gold, but also silver, mining stocks, and how government policies effect the markets. Also some of the post can be quite humorous at times.
TownCrierWindow of opportunity for economic reforms#1291752/11/05; 14:39:20

PALO ALTO, Calif. (AFX) -

..."Now is the time, while the global economy is performing well, to take measures that will further improve the flexibility and adaptability of the economy going forward," Anne Krueger, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, told a conference at Stanford University's Institute for Economic Policy Research. "It really does make sense to fix the roof when the sun is shining."

Krueger and John Taylor, the U.S. Treasury's undersecretary for international affairs, told the audience the world economy faces serious risks. The U.S. current-account deficit, which topped $600 billion last year, is a chief concern, they said.

Other risks include heavy debt in emerging markets, political uncertainty in the Middle East related to the Iraq War, and volatile oil prices.

"There will be another global economic downturn but we cannot know when. The challenge is to be as well prepared as possible," she said. "This is not the time for policy makers to relax their guard."

Taylor said the world economic picture had rarely been so rosy, but said that isn't a reason for complacency. "Right now you can't find one recession in the entire world economy," Taylor said. "If you look around in terms of financial crises, we don't see a major financial crisis anywhere."

But he acknowledged the U.S. trade deficit was a problem.

The first element is to increase savings in the U.S....

"I would be very happy if every economy in the world grew faster than the U.S. economy," Taylor said.

^----(from url)----^

Choose gold while "the sun is shining". It's usually more affordable that way.


balzacTHE CONTEST#1291762/11/05; 14:45:46

Why do I lurk and occasionally post?
The learned people here and their candor attract my attention daily
and as a result I always feel a little better informed with the
time spent here.
I spend about 3 hours a day on the net, always seaching for
information re investments or political knowledge and
this is one site where my time is not wasted.
Other sites, I find infested with smut or lowends who are attempting to raise their egos by put downs or wisecracks.
This site is a little like the WSJ the CBC and the BBC all rolled into one.

TownCrierBelgian, complete agreement#1291772/11/05; 15:01:04

Cfr. "I would be very happy if every economy in the world grew faster than the U.S. economy," Taylor said.

Implied in that statement for "growth" is his wish for a goodly amount of nominal price inflation in these other quarters such that the dollar doesn't appear so uniquely and obviously the weak sister among the various currencies.


Belgian" dirty gold" ???#1291782/11/05; 15:09:52

International Social activist organisations are (unfortunately) useful naives (idiots) who don't want to know, how and by who, they are being manipulated (infiltrated) !
We knew that these "dirty gold" campaigns would come (have follow ups). It was written into the stars.
One should not be surprised. Give them a compassionate smile.
Look who's *behind* Mister Gordon Brown and ask yourself...WHY the clean precious IMF metal !? But don't happy.

BelgianTaylor "talk"....#1291792/11/05; 15:20:01

Day after day,...after day...I smell roses, when hearing all those astute talkers ! BUT I SEE NO ROSES ! And it is not that I don't want to see roses...I just love these flowers.
We are being ridiculed on a massive scale ! There is no crisis...

Wheelthru$$$$435.40$$$$#1291802/11/05; 15:20:30

After working for wire houses for over 43 years, I have found that the real intelligent information is only found at this wonderful table. I religiously read the forum daily and have done so for several years. This is however my first post.

Keep up the good work.

Kev$$$$$423.1$$$$$#1291812/11/05; 15:53:50

I read the USAGOLD Forum because it is one of these few forums where discussions about gold often touch the heart of the macro&geo financial&political spectrum and where people still manage to have a broad and clear bird perspective instead of the mainstream rubbish we have to deal with from these narrow-minded frogs with ditto perspective.
Kev@ Belgian#1291822/11/05; 15:56:54

could you please e-mail me because for quite some time now I am unable to reach you on your planet harmony.
Black BladeGold and Silver Move Higher#1291832/11/05; 16:38:34


"For now, we'll just have to be patient and see if this rally off Wednesday's low is for real," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician with Trends In Commodities. "The short-term technical picture has improved significantly for both gold and silver," Doelling said.

"If the dollar now resumes its drop, we may see gold rally significantly as investors may look at this as the end of the dollar correction and the start of the next leg down," said Kevin Kerr of Kerr Trading International.

Charlie Nedoss of Peak Trading Group was more circumspect. "Gold appears to be making time and consolidating," he said. "The dollar has bounced a little."

Black Blade: As traders reevaluated the recent Greenspan speech they realized the fuzzy warm feelings they had and what they apparently heard were simply auditory hallucinations. As a result the US dollar turned tail and dipped lower. Long term of course the US dollar will inevitably fall much lower as the twin deficits weigh heavily and the US currency seeks fair value against foreign currencies. A daunting task given that all currencies remain grossly overvalued and the continuing "currency war"/"competitive currency devaluation" wreaks havoc in global currency markets. The only currency to have under these circumstances is obviously the precious metals. We can afford to sit out the currency gaming and silently accumulate Gold and Silver "portfolio insurance" for that day of reckoning.

Black BladeGold and Silver Move Higher#1291842/11/05; 16:42:55;jsessionid=HTJ2WOXRI4J0YCRBAEOCFFA?type=topNews&storyID=7607178


"With gold and the base metals looking steady for the moment, and the dollar on a weaker footing, it seems silver could extend its gains in coming sessions," James Moore of the said.

Geopolitical concerns additionally underpinned gold as a traditional safe-haven investment.

"With the risk of further escalation in the tensions between Iran, North Korea and the U.S. over the weekend, traders are unlikely to go home short," Moore said.

Black Blade: Ah yes, I would be remiss not to point out that the geopolitical side of the equation once again rears its ugly head. N. Korea and Iran, two of the remaining so-called "Axis of Evil" members bring the nuclear threat to mind. A little destabilising to the markets...

GoldiloxContest#1291852/11/05; 18:37:40


I read the USA Gold forum daily because the open attitudes of the participants in viewing and analyzing the unfolding events in the financial arena.

GoldiloxOpen Forum#1291862/11/05; 19:49:38

OK, Townie, as we are now in "Open Forum", I'll bite.

Your statement, "I have no doubt, however, that these environmentalists would have you believe that the alternative of PAPER gold is NOT dirty. Sure, it may be 'clean' environmentally, but socially it is not. . . "

although I suspect a modicum of sarcasm, is followed by a rather lop-sided indictment of environmentally active groups.

1) I'm not aware of any environmental movements who have not taken paper producers to much greater task than even miners, as evidenced by the anti-deforestation programs. Thoughtless release of toxins like cyanide into water supplies deserves very close scrutiny.

2) IMHO, it is irresponsible to lump all environmentally concerned people with those who would spike trees, burn oil facilities, etc. If one must be lumped into movements labeled "radical" in order to be environmentally conscious of our actions, our society may be doomed to drown in its own technological feces.

3) As an example, an area I posted on months back is coming to light once again. Myopia in the energy patch that focuses on oil, oil, oil, deliberately defocuses a number of legitimate technologies, which although they might not individually replace oil-based technology, could very likely ease the pressure to obtain oil at ANY cost, be it financial or the lives of its citizenry. Once a popular government gets overwhelmingly staffed by a single industry (oil), as appears to have happened in the current US administration, the opportunity to utilize anything resembling alternative technological development and/or diplomacy for issue resolution is ultimately suppressed. Just how much is the suppression of gold and other monetary commodities a direct result of the equation:


And in essence, how much does that suppression bleed over to all forms of social, economic, and educational expression just to cement the ultimate control of TPTB?

After all, a CU professor may potentially lose his job for suggesting that the 911 attack was directed at the exact "socially dirty" entity you described in your post.

collies_99Does gold go up when DOW goes down ?#1291872/11/05; 19:52:48

I have been trying to find if there is any truth for gold to go up in price when a market melt-down occurs. Two occurrences of market melt-down in my short investing history is October black Monday, 1987 and the internet bubble top in March 2004. Both events did not result in any parabolic spike in the POG. In fact the price of gold declined with the market.

Many pro-gold article writers are touting gold as the ultimate investment to protect oneself from the next melt-down and that price should spike above all other asset class.

I like to believe that, but I need proof.

Will gold help me preserve my wealth or is cash still king, especially if we get a market melt-down just around the corner?

GoldiloxDOWn vs. Au#1291882/11/05; 20:10:48

@ collies-99

It is an oversimplification to try to calculate exact correlations between the DOW industrials and the price of gold (POG) on the Comex.

Much analytical energy has been expended in this conondrum. By and large, although the POG might also fall during large deflationatry events like a SM "correction", typically, the percentage decline is less drastic. Many explain this with the simple analogy that although individual stocks often go to zero value, gold never has gone to zero.

Rather than looking at individual events, you may find a better representation in examining the long-term fluctuations.

Gold has only occasionally offered its owners windfall profits, but has often protected them from the ravages of horrific losses, especially when the loss is incurred by an inflationary currency catastrophe, such as 1930's Germany or 2002 Argentina, to name just two examples.

Cavan ManFrom the; 20:23:56

.....a good piece of wit, cynicism, and reality (check)...

Poor Carly Fiorina...poor Bernie Ebbers....

America's great captains of industry seem to be hitting some shoals.

"You know [these one-shots] that we are doing is kind of crazy," said Scott Sullivan, CFO of Bernie Ebbers' telecom company. "We are going to dig ourselves into a deep hole because it is disguising what is going on."

But disguising what is going on is the name of the game in America's late, degenerate capitalism. You get your name in the paper by ginning up mergers and acquisitions. You build up mountains of debt. And you crunch the numbers into such grotesque and unnatural shapes that even their own mothers wouldn't recognize them. The company itself suffers. Real investors, who actually understand what is going on, are appalled. But the little guys who get their information from the newspapers and their emotions from television love it. Growth! Expansion! Technology! We're all going to get rich....

It's a shame about the way these things turn out. The top execs and insiders look out for themselves. Unless they are forced to do the perp walk in public, they usually sell out their options in good time...and take their filthy lucre down to Florida, where they build a big house on the beach.

Carly got a cool 1.5 million shares of HP stock when she signed up in 1999. They were worth $65 million at the time. Plus, she was given a sign-up bonus of $3 which was added many extravagant paychecks, including a severance package worth another $21 million. She was paid as though she were a movie or sports star, which of course is exactly what she what she was. She was paid to "wow" the lumps...not to build a good business. Now, she'll probably get a fat contract to write a book and make millions more providing inspiration for other hustlers.

Bernie Ebbers is in a worse jam. The federales have accused him of intentionally misleading investors - by reporting funny numbers to Wall Street.

But funny numbers are just what everyone wants. And if the feds are going to get upset about a few odd-looking ciphers in the private sector, they better not look very closely at their own figures. George W. Bush's budget must be one of the most intentionally misleading compilations ever attempted. It assumes spending cuts that almost certainly won't happen...and revenue growth this is extremely unlikely. Plus, it ignores billions of dollars worth of military and police expenses...for no other reason than that it would be inconvenient to mention them.

Mathematically, the budget is comic. Politically, it is conniving. Morally, it is probably closer to a venal sin, rather than a cardinal one. Legally, it is a fraud.

Yesterday, the financial markets had time to look at the president's new budget in detail, and to reflect on it. They decided that it was a sham, as we thought they might. The dollar sold off. Bonds sank. And gold? Gold rose. Whether this marks the beginning of a new short-term trend or not, we don't know. But we still believe it is in keeping with a long one.

collies_99DOW vs Au#1291902/11/05; 20:39:45

@ Goldilox

Do you have perhaps favor that bonds are a better vehicle for investment and also for safety during such events as a market meltdown?

I have been able to correlate that the 10 year rate decline during those times when a market meltdown occurred. This then implies that bond value increased and may actually be the vehicle to preserve one's wealth better than gold, for the next melt-down.

Gandalf the WhiteWELCOME to the TABLEROUND, Sir Wheelthru !!!#1291912/11/05; 21:30:11

Please post often now !

GoldiloxBonds#1291922/11/05; 21:41:15

I would not be one to ask about bonds, as I am not interested in that market. They might correlate well during a SM crash, but I suppose it depends on what other financial events accompany that crash.

The UST has already called some of the higher interest rate bonds, efectively ending their value as an inflationary protective device.

As most of the posters here would echo, a predetermined private investment in a PM stash also protects one in climates where the "gov't" sponsored protections might falter.

Gandalf the WhiteBEAUTIFUL Slow-STO line says that the NEXT THREE DAYS ---#1291932/11/05; 21:49:04$HUI,uu[h,a]daoayiay[pb200!f][vc60][iut!Uh89,21!Lp88,21,3]&pref=G

are going to be UP for the POG !!
That is only my opinion, of course.

Gandalf the WhiteSir Collies_99 ---- This should answer your Question ! <;-)#1291942/11/05; 21:58:49

And the FEEL of the YELLOW is far better that Bankster PAPER.

Gandalf the WhiteFridays COMEX gold-pit action !!! <;-)#1291952/11/05; 22:07:05

COMEX Gold Apr '05 Contract GCJ05
Open = $418.8 HIGH = $423.4 low = $417.7
SETTLEMENT = $422.0 Change = +$3.3

collies_99Gold is not a sure thing !#1291972/12/05; 00:30:02

I am still unsure and the answer for investing in gold isn't that simple:

Here is the scenario, I am expecting the DOW to top above the Dec high +10,850 and will likely approach 11,000, that is almost a sure thing by the way price patterns are evolving. Once that occurs a series of market decline will ensue that will take the DOW to level below the 2002 lows, back to +7000. The market will initially react to the decline as a normal pull-back in an on-going bull market, but it gets much worse than most thought.

Where about in the DOW's decline will people start to worry about value and convert those paper securities into cash or maybe even gold ? Preservation of capital at its best, as the fear of losing more sets in. If gold is the best choice then post 2000-2001, we should have seen gold rise tremendously, but it didn't.

Gold's valuation has a direct link to the US dollar, inverse correlation, well documented. Gold started gopin up when the USD started to decline. But during the next decline gold may also be declining as it is not a guarantee that gold will go up when markets go down. But what of the demand for bond as the market tanks? Gold and bond are seen as safe heaven, but cash is king.

In taking the view that much of billions if not trillion in the stock market will be converted in bonds, that should create a demand for the currency at which the bonds are denominated, mostly the USD resulting in a rise in the dollar value.

What of gold then as a hedge for safety, its line with the USD will surely cause gold's price to decline and not rise and demand for bond grow.

I think we all must make this decision before March 21, which is when I expect the DOW to top. March 21 is a turn date as calculated by Robert McHugh. The market is following anticipated pattern and the outcome is a surety.

Is gold the best store of wealth going forward post another market crash in 2005?

BelgianGood morning collies_99#1291982/12/05; 02:37:05

Is gold a sure thing ? Order some and hold the precious metal in your hand and look at it.

You seem pretty sure about the Dow's behavior...why do you doubt about a wealth metal in "your" hand ?

How many people are aware that "cash" is permanently eroded through loss of exchange rate + purchasing power ?

What if the Dow isn't (initially) "crashing"... because it is the dollar that crashes ? Dow stays the same but the $-currency becomes worthless ?

If people rush to $-bonds...the IRs will even decline more.
If this would result in a strengthening dollar...the US deficits would increase much faster and make the $-currency less credible as the world's reserve currency. What is the net gain of having a crashing stockmarket and an expanding bond volume ? Will foreigners keep on subsidizing the US deficits ?



I read the USA GOLD forum three times a day to gain the invaluable insight put forth by the knowledgeable posters with regards to the GOLD market and current economic affairs, to pick up the monthly deals on hard to acquire GOLD coins presented by our host, and to check in to see if ANOTHER or FOA have returned to expound their thoughts regarding the current affairs in the GOLD and currency markets that will shape my family's and the world's future.

SundeckIEA: World oil supply under strain as growth lags#1292002/12/05; 04:42:25



LONDON: Disappointing oil output growth outside the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) is threatening to put world supplies under renewed strain this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.

The international adviser on energy policy to industrialised nations has cut its forecast for non-Opec supply growth by 175,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 910,000 bpd, pointing to prolonged disruptions in Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) producers and lower expectations for Russia.

Slower growth outside Opec would hand a greater role to the cartel in supplying the rapidly expanding 84 million bpd world oil market.

"Non-Opec production growth is expected to slow to 0.9 million bpd in 2005, leading to a tightening of the market from initial forecasts," the IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report.


Sundeck: Ahhh...yes, difficult to see the price of oil falling anytime soon...what with pressure on supply from several quarters and the US dollar smelling like a sunbaked sprat.

Goldilox #129186, you are right in emphasising the urgency to move toward varied technologies to meet energy needs, and this is happening in many places. But the shear scale of the problems associated with:

(a) transitioning from or adapting existing infrastructure,
(b) recasting social behaviour and expectations, and
(c) the (reactive) power of the oil (and coal) lobby acting against change,

are truly daunting.

One thing is certain...the change away from oil will come...sooner or later...benignly or violently...via "market forces" or social upheaval...

84 million barrels per day...that is a flaming ring of oil barrels, shoulder-to-shoulder, stretching around the world...burning every awsome spectacle in the in the "onion-skin thin" biosphere...


SundeckRussia to pay off debt early...#1292012/12/05; 04:50:31


Putin orders early repayment of Russia's foreign debt:
[World News]: Moscow, Feb 11 : President Vladimir Putin today issued orders for early repayment of Russia's USD 115 billion foreign debt accumulated by his predecessors.

"The economic expediency to settle it as quickly as possible is obvious," Putin told Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin in a televised Kremlin meeting.

Russia assumed obligations on the debt of the former Soviet Union, and received several loans in the 1990s under Putin's predecessor Boris Yeltsin.

"It's a very expensive debt, the cost of servicing is three to four times higher than in G-7 countries", Kudrin said.

Russia has to spend 7 to 13 per cent for servicing the USD 115 billion debt.


Sundeck: Is it "obvious" because of the high interest rate, or are there other reasons?

BelgianBill Bonner about Greenspan :#1292022/12/05; 05:42:15

Greenspan turned a financial bubble into an economic bubble !!!

How is the " de-bubbling " going to look like ? Taking into account that the great masses even never "realized" they were in a financial/economic bubble...and how BIG the entire bubble actually is. Everything is so easely taken for granted.

But it is only an extremely tiny minority that is holding the bulk of all the profits that were made.
The whole world remains focused on the US, simply because of "the dollar" being the world's major currency. That's why the question about the dollar's credibility has become of utmost importance. Something, Americans never had to consider ever before.

I don't see the US (and the world) un-bubbling without any fundamental changes to the dollar-system. Maybe because I have a very bad feeling about the true "nature" of the mega bubble. W've come to the point where the existing bubble cannot be inflated or deflated, without shocking consequences for the one and only thing that has been and still is "underpinning" this bubble >>> THE DOLLAR !

More precisely, the EVER "softening" dollar, through its tremendous over-expansion, worldwide. A "Trillion" affair !

People do demand visible/tangible evidence for accepting any theory. All want to see "crashes" before any action is to be taken. Again and again, only a very little minority anticipates with appropiate (correct) action. Cfr. collies-99's (gold)question, wich we are all asking ourselves, constantly.

As an Eurolander, I'm freed from the dollar's credibility question (currency wise), since the existance of the euro. I'm holding all of my wealth-savings in goldmetal because
the final break up of the dollar's credibility will bring dramatic changes to gold.
Outside America and Euroland, many are already "experiencing" the declining credibility of the dollar. They all are getting less and less for the green paper/digit. The US has been exporting so many forms of "inflation" outside its borders. But one has to travel to experience it in practice as evidence for the written theories.

I don't see how the US can keep or improve the dollar's credibility for non Americans ? Any suggestions why I have it wrong ?

Felix the Cat$$$$ $ 425.6 $$$$#1292032/12/05; 05:58:07

I read the USAGOLD Forum at least once a week and (would be much often when the POG contest is opening) because I am a best lurker, I learned much from the egg heads of here, sometimes, I may also practice English here. Of course the main reason is USEGOLD provides usto have chance to win the Gold coins, LOL!
CaradocTightest-ever security for Gleneagles G8 summit #1292042/12/05; 06:00:05

A massive protest march has been organised for the capital for 2 July, the weekend before the G8 gathering on 6 to 8 July. Police had hoped that the march might help dissipate some of the protests planned for the following week in Perthshire, but organisers of the main protest have planned a series of rallies at Faslane, Dungavel and Edinburgh, which will turn the demonstration into a week-long event, leading up to the summit itself.

Belgian@Sundeck#1292052/12/05; 06:31:41

We will never know the """real"""" reason(s) why Russia pays back dollar-debt. It certainly is NOT for the obvious reasons, fabricated and publicized for the public. But you already suggested that.
Once Russia has paid its debts, no (unwanted) creditor can claim (demand) anything (privileges) from them. Much better to have all hands free when making new choices.

Russia is pulled into the euro-zone (euro capital market), Sundeck. Probably, Ukraine will come closer and faster to (in) Euroland (EMU) than Turkey (cfr. Kurdish sword of Damocles).

Belgian@Caradoc#1292062/12/05; 06:50:30

This < "security"-hysteria > is fastly spreading into all layers of the global society. Now, each and everyone "must" à priori feel unsafe. This generalizing *terror of fear* is ominous. When Condoleeza landed in sleepy Brussels, Belgian security dwarfs (comics) were almost fighting with Condi's own security. Jesus !
But you certainly suspect WHY the increasing generalized "fear-factor" is needed for, aren't you ?

Twice DiscipledPersistance and Patience#1292072/12/05; 07:43:10

Discussion has occurred numerous times about how to convey to other people the urgency of diversifying into physical holdings. I have been mocked at work many times for even talking about gold. An interesting thing has occurred that I am unable to fully explain. I purchase 20 PCGS MS69 2005 1oz eagles to get a bulk discount and only wanted to keep 10. I took a chance and sent an offer about 6 people at work for them to purchase at the same price I bought them. Wow! Two days later, they're gone and there appears to be more demand than I have available.
3-4 years of gently talking about this stuff really did make a difference. Hopefully, one or more will catch on to this like I did with my first purchases 7 years ago and really realize the difference between gold and paper. I am extremely encouraged.
Just food for thought on a wonderful weekend morning.

jenika******************$422.6***************#1292082/12/05; 08:01:56

I read this forum once a day - there is nothing better then sitting down, coffee in hand and reading the days postings. Definately the best forum on the net for informed views.
I also read the links that are posted - thank you all.

Caradoc@ Belgian#1292092/12/05; 08:19:19

90% probability we're in synch, so here's my guess:
the same as the purported/ popularly perceived reason for the Reichstag fire in the early 30s? Note: not referring to whatever was purportrator van der Lubbe's real reason.


PS: The Socratic method is a great didactic technique. By pulling information out of the student on a piece by piece basis, the student gets the "bricks" one at a time and is able to assemble them into a solid wall of information that he owns and feels comfortable with because he knows it's all his. Besides, it's the weekend and nobody's in a hurry.

Personally, I like the so-called "gestalt" learning theory. Hit me with the whole expletive-deleted wall in one blow. Send me reeling. Then hit me with it again. After a while, I begin to recognize that particular wall of bricks and can decide what I think about it. Just a matter of personal preference here. Your approach is equally valid but should properly include at least a nod once in a while to let the student know he's getting it right.

DruidFascinating and lucrative patriotism, [i] The negative return economy: a discourse on America's black budget*#1292102/12/05; 10:02:49



The United States government has operated a secret budgeting and spending program for decades outside the framework of the American Constitution. The institutional and political roots of this system of clandestine finance reach back to at least a century. The turn of the 19th and 20th centuries saw the consolidation of American industry and banking under the control of a restrictive cartel that for all practical purposes assumed control of the economy. The great magnates of American industry and finance in the late nineteenth century were superb practitioners of covert operations. Witness to this fact are the institutions set up during the twentieth century through which their descendants maintain control..

This paper is a summary of the structure of the American political economy which fits the facts better than the official model. Officially, American capitalism is characterised by democracy, opportunity, self-improvement, open and free markets, and constructive regulation for the public good, in short, happiness. Under this construct America has never fought a war of aggression and harbours no designs to do so.

Its leaders have the nation's interests at heart, and its politicians listen to their constituencies. The truth is different. Why the United States is so widely misunderstood is due in part to a controlled educational system and media. As the system evolved over the decades, time lent it legitimacy spanning the political spectrum. Gustavus Meyers, author of the seminal work History of the Great American Fortunes and no panegyrist, believed – following Marx as did many on the left – that the consolidation of American industry was inevitable and that the men who accomplished it were acting their part in a predetermined historical evolution. Once monopoly control had been achieved, the proletariat would rise and its dictatorship would begin. We shy away from such determinism; nothing happens but as a consequence of what men do and choose to do. If Meyers were alive today, he would still be waiting.

Druid: Shear brilliance in explaining the design, machination and magnitude of the problem. Definitely a command control political economy at the heart of the machine. It's a very long read but well worth your time.

@Belgian, another one of the big players such as Rogers, Buffet, Gates...etc that does not ever mention the "G" word in its proper context is Steve Forbes. I remember Forbes uesed to literally pound the table about gold but now, not a word.

John the Jute$$$$ 425.0 $$$$#1292112/12/05; 10:05:37

I read the USAGOLD forum daily because I find the debate fascinating; particularly the evidence of the debasement of all of our fiat currencies. Removing the link to something of permanent value has allowed our masters to inflate the money supply in response to economic need or political expediency. Usually, unfortunately, the latter.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Evenings, weekends, holidays... use our online store to convey an order at your convenience.#1292122/12/05; 10:27:23">gold -- a global calling card

POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 2/12/05, Saturday at HIGH NOON Denver time !

Entries listed in order of decending values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (2/9/05; 17:15:29MT - msg#: 129072)

$$$$ $488.5 $$$$ Merlinsen (2/8/05; 10:00:14MT - msg#: 129004)

$$$$ $454.7 $$$$ Moegold (2/8/05; 14:03:53MT - msg#: 129019)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Beamer (2/9/05; 01:35:04MT - msg#: 129036)

$$$$ $435.4 $$$$ Wheelthru (2/11/05; 15:20:30MT - msg#: 129180)

$$$$ $434.1 $$$$ mackattack (2/10/05; 16:14:44MT - msg#: 129123)

$$$$ $432.2 $$$$ madmark (2/9/05; 11:12:28MT - msg#: 129051)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ spikedog (02/04/05; 22:50:22MT - msg#: 128898)

$$$$ $431.1 $$$$ Rimh (2/10/05; 14:57:56MT - msg#: 129118)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 11:27:26MT - msg#: 128871)

$$$$ $428.5 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (2/12/05; 04:30:15MT - msg#: 129199)

$$$$ $426.8 $$$$ The Hoople (2/10/05; 07:55:24MT - msg#: 129093)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck (02/04/05; 17:10:03MT - msg#: 128888)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (02/04/05; 16:52:40MT - msg#: 128886)

$$$$ $425.6 $$$$ Felix the Cat (2/12/05; 05:58:07MT - msg#: 129203)

$$$$ $425.0 $$$$ John the Jute (2/12/05; 10:05:37MT - msg#: 129211)

$$$$ $424.3 $$$$ Goldilox (2/11/05; 18:37:40MT - msg#: 129185)
$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ lifer (02/04/05; 15:22:20MT - msg#: 128883)

$$$$ $423.3 $$$$ GoldenBear (2/11/05; 14:35:04MT - msg#: 129174)

$$$$ $423.1 $$$$ Kev (2/11/05; 15:53:50MT - msg#: 129181)

$$$$ $422.6 $$$$ jenika (2/12/05; 08:01:56MT - msg#: 129208)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ slingshot (02/04/05; 15:35:11MT - msg#: 128885)

$$$$ $421.5 $$$$ balzac (2/11/05; 14:45:46MT - msg#: 129176)

$$$$ $421.0 $$$$ Gondolin (2/11/05; 04:42:20MT - msg#: 129154)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (2/10/05; 10:19:39MT - msg#: 129102)

$$$$ $419.8 $$$$ servantHeart (2/10/05; 10:36:39MT - msg#: 129104)

$$$$ $418.2 $$$$ Slowman (2/10/05; 05:21:16MT - msg#: 129089)

$$$$ $417.5 $$$$ Goldendome (2/11/05; 00:29:51MT - msg#: 129148)

$$$$ $415.9 $$$$ Smeagol (02/05/05; 15:44:17MT - msg#: 128925)

$$$$ $412.1 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (2/9/05; 12:33:20MT - msg#: 129055)

$$$$ $409.0 $$$$ YGM (02/08/05; 04:06:16MT - msg#: 128999)

$$$$ $408.1 $$$$ Henri (2/9/05; 08:02:33MT - msg#: 129041)

$$$$ $407.1 $$$$ 2023 (2/6/05; 23:18:03MT - msg#: 128961)

$$$$ $405.6 $$$$ Chally (2/8/05; 23:34:04MT - msg#: 129034)

$$$$ $400.0 $$$$ DryWasher (2/8/05; 10:57:34MT - msg#: 129009)

$$$$ $398.0 $$$$ DoubleEagle (02/08/05; 01:09:39MT - msg#: 128998)

$$$$ $361.0 $$$$ Sprout (2/10/05; 07:09:43MT - msg#: 129092)


AND -- In case you missed the CALL TO CONTEST ----

Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 10:53:55MT - msg#: 128869)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the April COMEX contract (GCJ05) on Wednesday, February 16, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, February 13th.

The "Price of Gold" (POG) Contest winner -- the person with the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a nineteenth Century 20 Lira Italian Umberto I coin, (which may be seen at the following LINK).
These coins were Minted between 1880 - 1897 with a Fineness of 0.900, which therefore contains an "Actual Gold Content" of 0.1867 net fine troy ounces of pure GOLD !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2005 Gold Contract (GCJ05) on the date of Wednesday, February 16, 2005.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $421.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $421.0 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! "FIRST COME" has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Sunday, February 13, 2005.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY--- (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will be REQUIRED to answer the DIFFICULT and controversial subject by "Determining and COMPLETING the following statement": <;-)

I read the USAGOLD Forum ( how often? ) because ------ (in 25 words or more!).

LET the CONTEST continue !

Thinking out loud --- (This is my early Valentine to all !) The COMEX POG will not be changing from the Friday level until AFTER the ENTRY DEADLINE of Sunday MIDNIGHT (Denver time) and therefore everyone that is yet intending to enter this POG CONTEST has only to determine what will happen on MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY to win the GOLD and Silver prizes ! Don't PROGRASTINATE !

Cometose$$$$424.50$$$$$#1292142/12/05; 13:40:09

six steps forward ,two steps back and............

I visit the USAGOLD FORUM daily as often as possible unless I'm terribly busy or on a trip .... Road trips are so lovely . It's become such a "SEE THE USA, in a CHEVROLET" world in OZ these days ......."We're not in Kansas anymore,Toto" (imagine these words being spoken in Clint Eastwood's voice per "DO you feel lucky , Punk ")

There is much free contribution of intellect here. There are many well read and informed who come here and contribute regularly ... Most of what I read here is a friendly exchange of ideas between the contributors.....I like to think of the forum as a hall of honor , emotion and humor , an association of ladies and gentlemen, also a congregation of color ; a court of seekers as well as contributors. This is often the place one might find most relevant info from the eastern as well as the western hemisphere first as pertains to global finance and economics. One may act with confidence when one has on hand good information ......Some of the best information I've had access too has come from this forum and its' members.....The old Boy Scout Motto is BE PREPARED
and Where Preparation meets opportunity comes success.
These are all relevant statement regarding my experience here.

Aside: there is a world of information out there Newspapers and Print Media type publications . There are a host of Financial News Shows in the Cable Network Media...

I come here to hear the minds at this forum who have the capacity to analyze info and synthesize the news .....and boil it down ......... CUT THROUGH THE CRAP and HYPE I continually have reconfirmation of where value is ....and what is relevant information .

R Powellcollies_99 // POG vs. Stocks //possible solution for social security#1292152/12/05; 13:51:12

You opined in post 129197 that you are convinced that the DOW is due for a big downturn. I sometimes wonder if equity prices might rise along with the prices of many commodities simply (or the exclusion of other influences) when/if and because the dollar depreciates. But assuming that Robert McHugh's prediction proves accurate, what then for the price of gold?

I will agree with your opinion that money will leave stocks and seek safety in bonds. This may be especially so for the huge dollar amounts held (invested) by mutual funds which include most pension trusts. Many of these simply can not short the equities so must turn to cash or bonds. Why don't investors at least place their money with hedge funds which can short stocks at those times when they are declining? Maybe we'll yet find some merit in ETFs that give mutual fund managers, who do have access to the futures markets, some access to gold prices. Although many might think it a great idea, fund managers are not going to invest their clients' money in physical gold.

So, assuming that the equities head south, and vast amounts of money seek shelter in bonds, would this scenario really be supportive of the dollar as you say? Bonds would rise and yields would fall but is the perceived value of bonds all there is to determine the relative strength of the dollar? Would not the falling stock markets reflect a worrisome economy? And would not this fear weaken the dollar? I don't know how many influences determine the relative strength of the $ nor do I know how much influence each one has nor do I know what future events will increase or decrease the strength of these particular influences. Actually, I know very little but I doubt the assurance with which you conclude that higher bond prices must then support the dollar. Is it that simple?

While it may be that money does flow into bonds if the equities crash, gold might, in that case, receive support from the smaller investor (as opposed to managed funds) and from those who do speculate in the futures game. But, whether physical metals buying or buying in futures, gold just might guard against both monetary inflation and deflation which is what, I believe, you meant when you refered to a scenario in which "cash is king". I'll agree with you that the big money now invested in stocks is not likely to find its way into gold. If there were an easy access between that stock money and commodity investment, as there is between stocks and bonds (money flowing back and forth daily), then I'd guess that the price of gold (and many other commodities) would already be much, much higher. If there were, do you suppose that the stock investment fund managers could figure out that shorting (as opposed to always buying) involves the exact same risks and rewards as does simply buying. I've never heard any of the CNBC announcers ask any guest, "what are the hot stocks to sell today?"

And yet, the Bush administration wants to put privitized money into the markets in place of some social security payments. Will all this go into the long side of stock ownership? If so, I guess we can throw out the fundamentals again for some time to come. Money invested by joe and jill public almost always is invested on the long (buying) side of stocks. Buying raises the indexes and begets more buying. Hey! Maybe happy days are here again!! And you thought the government was running out of ideas on how to keep stocks rising and on how to keep everyone happy! Now, if only the laws could be adjusted so that stock ownership entitled the share owner to eligibility in the company retirement plan, then, with more income, more retired folks would exceed the non-taxable dollar limits on income and have to pay more in taxes. This, then could used to offset tax breaks afforded to companies who include retirement benefits to their stock holders. And, of course, with the need for more retirement money, everyone would rush to buy into equities into as many companies as possible, thus again raising the price of stocks! .....Then, with the market capitalization (net value) of so many companies driven so much higher from the demand buying of their shares, company debt to market cap. ratios would plummet, and company credit ratings would skyrocket, making the borrowing of more capital easier and less costly. This in turn would boost capital investment in production facilities for companies around the world. The end result would be higher company profits, increasing stock prices once again and further increasing the demand for stock ownership, right? Now then, can all this be accomplished with the present amount of liquidity available? Probably not, more money will be needed and, of course, more bank and broker personel to facilitate all these transactions. There, problem solved for another generation or so.

Will I be able to use MY social security private investment money to buy OR sell commodities as I see fit? I'm self-employed, so my social security is 15 percent, all paid by me. Would I want to short anything when the above scenario is so rosy?

Anyway, just some POG versus stock market prices thoughts which turned into random thoughts that the administration would probably pay dearly for, no?
happy weekend...!!!!

Clink!$$$$$ $428.0 $$$$$#1292162/12/05; 13:51:32

I know I should, I know I must,
I know it should be easy
To enter the gold price guessing contest,
But it's thrown me in a tizzy.

Every time, it seems to me
That MK cries "A contest !"
Is guaranteed to be the point
When gold is showing unrest.

It could shoot up, (Up to da Moon !),
Or is that a nasty vertex
of a dreaded bearish wedge I see ?
I'm feeling so perplexed.

"Never mind," I say to calm myself,
"It's only just for fun."
But game or not I see that there's
Some shiny to be won.

So gathering all my courage, I yell,
"Four Hundred Tenty Eight !"
Then type like flippin' crazy
Before some other smart ass comes along and steals my number which would mean that I would have to start thinking all over again about what number to pick, and then I'd have to rewrite the poem to get the rhyme right and then yet another smart ass might come along and .....
Well, you get the picture.

I don't know how often I read the forum, but I know that I haven't missed a post in a couple of years. To try to learn the truth is addictive !


R PowellCorrection/ sorry#1292172/12/05; 13:54:42

That should read....

mutual fund managers, who do NOT have access to futures markets,....

Clink!Ahem#1292182/12/05; 13:55:38

Rewrite to get the rhyme right ? Maybe I should have included the spell check in there too. But true art is never perfect, is it ?

Tevye$$$$ 423.7 $$$$#1292192/12/05; 14:16:40

I read the forum several times a week if not daily for the education and camaraderie. Perhaps some day, I'll post more often that at contest time. This is a worthwhile forum, and I thank MK, our gracious and wise host for providing it (and all of his assistants too of course). May his business prosper and our tangible wealth increase.
R Powell $$$$$$$ 427.6 $$$$$$$#1292202/12/05; 14:30:35

I read almost daily as part of my study of the economics of future commodity prices. I do so to satisfy an insatiable curiousity for learning and I do so in an endeavor to gain totally outrageous amounts of fiat money from leveraged derivatives investments. I still, after all these years, possess the full complement of that quality which each and every baby is born into this world with plenty of,...greed! Thanks to all here who help me in attaining this goal..!!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.... In Order to Form a More Perfect Union... (between You and Your Savings)#1292212/12/05; 14:55:18">Arm yourself with knowledge
Shermag$$$$ 417.0 $$$$#1292222/12/05; 16:17:22

I read the USAGOLD Forum daily because:
1. I regularly learn more about gold and money.
2. It is here that I first hear of important fundamental issues affecting our global economy.
3. It is a place of civil discourse, unlike most other internet forums.

KiloOde to Clink#1292232/12/05; 16:46:37

Those rhymes from Clink,
though they may stink,
oft seem to get much bolder.
With longer frown,
I've been around,
But that's because I'm older.

The more we learn,
more gold we yearn,
more "clinking" in the pot.
I often lurk,
while I'm at work,
here at my favorite spot.

While U.S.A. is on all day,
we see the world's a mess.
To read the latest,
Roundtable Greatest......
I simply hit refresh.

Toolie$$$$ $425.3 $$$$#1292242/12/05; 17:07:27

I read the USAGOLD Forum as often as possible because, "free-gold" (or something quite similar) comes nearer each day. Its approach will be described here and only here. I can't think of a better place to wait.
GoldiloxPoetic license#1292252/12/05; 17:19:07

@ Kilo

Your ode to Clink's verse is entertaining, as well, but I wonder, if in order to more closely follow the rhyme scheme, you didn't mean:

"the world's a mesh!"

Clink!@Kilo#1292262/12/05; 18:17:39

Goodness ! I've never had an ode written to me before. Does that make me odious ?

CoBra(too)@ MK#1292272/12/05; 18:36:15

The empire has fought back in Bormio.

I'm off skiing too - it has been a great show by the US Team - and now lets split the spoils in Gold and Silver and some other metals ...

Best regards cb2

Smeagol...sss....and now for something TRULY odious...#1292282/12/05; 19:48:19

...crank the economic handle and ssing along, precious!
...we thinks they'll figure out the tune soon enough, eh? (grin)

Looks as if the Dow is done
Our money's on the Nasdaq
Techs look like they're on a run-
OUCH! Should'n'a bought that!

Mortgage loans at such low cost
And housing prices soaring
The bigger the bubble the better it gets
POP! No one is buying!

Which way will the money go next?
A flip of the gold'll tell ya
But it fell in and jammed up the press
RRRIP!! went the dollar!

"How are we going to fix all this?"
Bernanke cried to Greenspan
"Pack your bags and skip the rest
before SHTF!"


SmeagolSir Clink!#1292292/12/05; 19:53:33

...we forgot to tell you your Contesst Guess Poem had us, as they say, ROFL!


MKCB. . .#1292302/12/05; 21:13:06


Gotta love it. Congrats to B. Raich. Hope Bode managed to keep both skis on the snow this time. We'll take our respite, split the gold with Austria and still smile with you over the bottle of champagne bottom of the hill.

To the empire!


commish****426.30****#1292312/12/05; 22:47:01

Check into USAGOLD forum to keep informed of any news old or breaking in the PM market.
heavy mettleRussia to pay off debt early...#1292332/13/05; 00:58:59

Could this not be the other side of gold manipulation whereby Russia paying off debt in dollars would create the perception of more demand for dollars thus impacting gold on the downside. We've heard enough about IMF gold sales so maybe that card has been played and now it's all about dollar perception to control gold's price.

Waiting for the $403 price objective to get physical while the getting's good.

geUS Dollar Index - Three Paths to 65 by JesseL of Prudent Bear#1292342/13/05; 01:52:01

Path 3 is the route that will harm the greatest number of people, bull and bear.

See the thread on PruBear

seagull$$$$425.80 $$$$#1292352/13/05; 05:15:42

I have visited USA Gold almost every day since its inception. At that time, I had absolutely no savvy of financial markets at all, but the wisdom and generosity of the many posters in that time have broadened my understanding considerable. Thank you CPM for hosting this wonderful resource.
goldenpeace$$$$$429.6$$$$$$ (and haiku)#1292362/13/05; 06:11:28

Since finding this site in 1999, i've found this noble thread to be consistantly ahead of the curve in scoping out what will be in the markets and ,unsurprisingly, to always be committed to the unspun, unvarnished truth on the news of the day. Therefore i visit 3-4 times a day.
Blessings and thanks to all the keen insight expessed here.
Value will out!

From golden hall rings
the gong of the truth of yore
for all who will hear.

Sadhu, sadhu, sadhu


NedAlternative energy........viable options........#1292372/13/05; 06:18:22

My ecologist/biologist PHD brother-in-law was over yesterday. He states that the energy required to manufacture a windmill is more than the expected energy generation of the device in its entire lifetime.

Is this true?

Bad news for the windmill lovers because I heard a rumor that a mandate had been set to increase windmill energy generation in North America from 1% to 7%.

...shorting windmill manufacturers...??

Jing Zu$$$$ $427.7 $$$$#1292382/13/05; 06:33:58

I read the USAGOLD Forum almost every day because most of the information that I read on the USAGOLD Forum has insight into the GOLD arena. This helps me to make better choices with my investments. The other reason is that the Forum is the best, well run GOLD site on the World Wide Web.

Thank you!

Jing Zu

Max Rabbitz$$$$ 419.0 $$$$#1292392/13/05; 07:44:11

I read the Forum every day as an antidote to the spin of the financial media matrix. The Forum provides the rational and support needed to hold physical wealth as opposed to paper derivatives. I now view all paper now as casino chips.....for fun and entertainment, not savings. As many here know, there is close to zero support from friends, family, and co-workers. They may follow the markets but their economic knowledge is close to zero. To them economics is boring. They are convinced a booming economy is good and to do this the FED just has to keep money easy. End of subject and on to something more interesting. It is so easy for people to believe in the paper world as their support seems to come from all directions. It is a corrupting support. Most seem to believe they will pay off their debts with cheaper dollars and thus get a leg up on the next guy. Something for nothing where everybody swindles (inflates) their neighbors out of their savings (work efforts). What a system. Do they think they can out swindle the FED?

Thanks to the Forum for making economics and banking a fascinating subject through which lens I now view most of our current world events.

Waverider$$$$$ 7,000.00 $$$$$#1292402/13/05; 08:11:42

Sir Gandalf - I'm going to keep The Invisible Hand company -being an outlier can be lonely! And PS - you KNOW that this is my favorite website, read almost every day as time allows.
7nomads$$$$436.0$$$$#1292412/13/05; 08:28:09

Like another poster, We've been reading USAGOLD since 1999. The goldtrail is priceless, I was talked out of participating in the 1976-1981 gold rush. I missed out, but wouldn't be out of this one. Thanks to USAGOLD and all the posters, where in the early days, we printed out daily forums so we could absorb the "golden nuggets" posted here.

All the best to the best site on the web.

Creosote$$$$420.5$$$$#1292422/13/05; 09:53:16

I read USA Gold most every day, but in particularly I read it to ground myself. At times in the other media sources, it easy to get aboard the latest notion based on biased and extreme information. When the aforementions happens, I just take a deep breath and link to the USA Gold site to find more balanced reasoning, based on a truer knowledge.
djac$$$$$$437.0$$$$$$$#1292432/13/05; 09:54:53

I read this forum occasionaly because as they say the market's pretty small, and I apreciate, enjoy and get some encouragement out of the reasonable viewpoints expressed by some of the more frequent posters here.

Well, anyway, I believe there is little incentive to try to compare an ounce of gold to a failed accounting unit at this time in history, but no reason not to participate in your contest :-)

thank you to the host
and the fabulous contributors


POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 2/13/05, Sunday at 10:30 Denver time !

Tick TOCK = REMEMBER the Entry DEADLINE is at MIDNIGHT tonight Denver time!!

Entries listed in order of decending values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (2/9/05; 17:15:29MT - msg#: 129072)

$$$$7,000.0$$$$ Waverider (2/13/05; 08:11:42MT - msg#: 129240)

$$$$ $488.5 $$$$ Merlinsen (2/8/05; 10:00:14MT - msg#: 129004)

$$$$ $454.7 $$$$ Moegold (2/8/05; 14:03:53MT - msg#: 129019)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Beamer (2/9/05; 01:35:04MT - msg#: 129036)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ djac (2/13/05; 09:54:53MT - msg#: 129243)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ 7nomads (2/13/05; 08:28:09MT - msg#: 129241)

$$$$ $435.4 $$$$ Wheelthru (2/11/05; 15:20:30MT - msg#: 129180)

$$$$ $434.1 $$$$ mackattack (2/10/05; 16:14:44MT - msg#: 129123)

$$$$ $432.2 $$$$ madmark (2/9/05; 11:12:28MT - msg#: 129051)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ spikedog (02/04/05; 22:50:22MT - msg#: 128898)

$$$$ $431.1 $$$$ Rimh (2/10/05; 14:57:56MT - msg#: 129118)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 11:27:26MT - msg#: 128871)

$$$$ $429.6 $$$$ goldenpeace (2/13/05; 06:11:28MT - msg#: 129236)

$$$$ $428.5 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (2/12/05; 04:30:15MT - msg#: 129199)

$$$$ $428.0 $$$$ Clink! (2/12/05; 13:51:32MT - msg#: 129216)

$$$$ $427.7 $$$$ Jing Zu (2/13/05; 06:33:58MT - msg#: 129238)
$$$$ $427.6 $$$$ R Powell (2/12/05; 14:30:35MT - msg#: 129220)

$$$$ $426.8 $$$$ The Hoople (2/10/05; 07:55:24MT - msg#: 129093)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck (02/04/05; 17:10:03MT - msg#: 128888)

$$$$ $426.3 $$$$ commish (2/12/05; 22:47:01MT - msg#: 129231)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (02/04/05; 16:52:40MT - msg#: 128886)

$$$$ $425.8 $$$$ seagull (2/13/05; 05:15:42MT - msg#: 129235)

$$$$ $425.6 $$$$ Felix the Cat (2/12/05; 05:58:07MT - msg#: 129203)

$$$$ $425.3 $$$$ Toolie (2/12/05; 17:07:27MT - msg#: 129224)

$$$$ $425.0 $$$$ John the Jute (2/12/05; 10:05:37MT - msg#: 129211)

$$$$ $424.5 $$$$ Cometose (2/12/05; 13:40:09MT - msg#: 129214)

$$$$ $424.3 $$$$ Goldilox (2/11/05; 18:37:40MT - msg#: 129185)
$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ lifer (02/04/05; 15:22:20MT - msg#: 128883)

$$$$ $423.7 $$$$ Tevye (2/12/05; 14:16:40MT - msg#: 129219)

$$$$ $423.3 $$$$ GoldenBear (2/11/05; 14:35:04MT - msg#: 129174)

$$$$ $423.1 $$$$ Kev (2/11/05; 15:53:50MT - msg#: 129181)

$$$$ $422.6 $$$$ jenika (2/12/05; 08:01:56MT - msg#: 129208)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ slingshot (02/04/05; 15:35:11MT - msg#: 128885)

$$$$ $421.5 $$$$ balzac (2/11/05; 14:45:46MT - msg#: 129176)

$$$$ $421.0 $$$$ Gondolin (2/11/05; 04:42:20MT - msg#: 129154)

$$$$ $420.5 $$$$ Creosote (2/13/05; 09:53:16MT - msg#: 129242)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (2/10/05; 10:19:39MT - msg#: 129102)

$$$$ $419.8 $$$$ servantHeart (2/10/05; 10:36:39MT - msg#: 129104)

$$$$ $419.0 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (2/13/05; 07:44:11MT - msg#: 129239)

$$$$ $418.2 $$$$ Slowman (2/10/05; 05:21:16MT - msg#: 129089)

$$$$ $417.5 $$$$ Goldendome (2/11/05; 00:29:51MT - msg#: 129148)

$$$$ $417.0 $$$$ Shermag (2/12/05; 16:17:22MT - msg#: 129222)

$$$$ $415.9 $$$$ Smeagol (02/05/05; 15:44:17MT - msg#: 128925)

$$$$ $412.1 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (2/9/05; 12:33:20MT - msg#: 129055)

$$$$ $409.0 $$$$ YGM (02/08/05; 04:06:16MT - msg#: 128999)

$$$$ $408.1 $$$$ Henri (2/9/05; 08:02:33MT - msg#: 129041)

$$$$ $407.1 $$$$ 2023 (2/6/05; 23:18:03MT - msg#: 128961)

$$$$ $405.6 $$$$ Chally (2/8/05; 23:34:04MT - msg#: 129034)

$$$$ $400.0 $$$$ DryWasher (2/8/05; 10:57:34MT - msg#: 129009)

$$$$ $398.0 $$$$ DoubleEagle (02/08/05; 01:09:39MT - msg#: 128998)

$$$$ $361.0 $$$$ Sprout (2/10/05; 07:09:43MT - msg#: 129092)


AND -- In case you missed the CALL TO CONTEST ----

Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 10:53:55MT - msg#: 128869)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the April COMEX contract (GCJ05) on Wednesday, February 16, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, February 13th.

The "Price of Gold" (POG) Contest winner -- the person with the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a nineteenth Century 20 Lira Italian Umberto I coin, (which may be seen at the following LINK).
These coins were Minted between 1880 - 1897 with a Fineness of 0.900, which therefore contains an "Actual Gold Content" of 0.1867 net fine troy ounces of pure GOLD !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2005 Gold Contract (GCJ05) on the date of Wednesday, February 16, 2005.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $421.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $421.0 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! "FIRST COME" has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Sunday, February 13, 2005.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY--- (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will be REQUIRED to answer the DIFFICULT and controversial subject by "Determining and COMPLETING the following statement": <;-)

I read the USAGOLD Forum ( how often? ) because ------ (in 25 words or more!).

LET the CONTEST continue !

Thinking out loud --- (This is my early Valentine to all !) The COMEX POG will not be changing from the Friday level until AFTER the ENTRY DEADLINE of Sunday MIDNIGHT (Denver time) and therefore everyone that is yet intending to enter this POG CONTEST has only to determine what will happen on MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY to win the GOLD and Silver prizes ! Don't PROGRASTINATE !

GoldiloxWindmill and "energy costs" - before the open forum closes!!!#1292452/13/05; 11:23:19

@ Ned

What exactly was your Bro-in-law using for his calculations? Did he actually offer the physics calculations, or was he just parroting claims from the oil companies? What was he projecting as the life of a windmill - as some windmills in Holland date back hundreds of years.

To compare actual costs of energy alternatives, oil from Iraq costs us about a half billion military dollars per day, an astronomical fuel bill, and a large number of lives (in addition to transport, recovery and processing costs) that are never calculated into the "cost" of that oil. The "oil admin" charge that cost instead to "freedom" and deduct it from the oil calculations. Based on the historical actions of the US military over the last 40 years, one could add a large percentage of the annual "defense" and "black ops" budgets directly into the "cost" of oil, and $40 per barrel would not even come close to the mark. This doesn't even include the $10B per year given to Israel and $2B to Egypt for "stabilization" of the Middle East, the largest line items in the "foreign aid" budget.

Tesla demonstrated before WWII that energy could be garnered directly from the magnetosphere, but the information has been under government lock and key since his death. At what cost to lives, environment, and economies of the world has this been suppressed to maintain the curent grid/supply control system?

In addition, currently marketed solar technology uses only the tiny fraction of energy found in the visible light bands, ignoring the much larger percentage of energy outside those frequencies - a few new companies are starting to get it, and the energy efficiencies are much greate than previous products.

Why does no one build a Tesla tower today? McCanney and others have suggested that removing homes from the grid and generating power individually would be very cost effective to the individual, although not so to the grid/supply controllers. Most of the people I know who have made their homes energy "independent", also sell power back to the utilities, and pay off their investment earlier than through pure amortization.

One of the first actions by the current "oil admin" was to kill the Million Solar Home effort, as they sure don't want to offer tax advantages to any solution that lightens the pressure on the grid/supply chain, but tax breaks for "oil and gas exploration" get $millions in support from the lobby community?

Exxon's CEO asked where all the "windfall profit" critics were when his company was "suffering" from $10 oil? I submit that they were busy lobbying exploration tax advantages to inspire more exploration, and spending enormous sums to suppress "cleaner" technologies.

I highly recommend any books by R. Buckminster Fuller to get a big-picture grasp on this issue.

OvSGoldilox.#1292462/13/05; 12:06:59

I can see where you are comming from.
A lot of where I have been comming
But, it's easy to get trapped into
conspiracy thinking.
For example: the fact is--mostly
visible light is available on earth;
most other radiation is absorbed on
the way down to us.'
And, well, Tesla. One of my favorites.
But we do know that aside from his
genius some of his ideas are far fetched
and appealed to his showmanship.
I might even get involved in helping
to get a movie about him off the ground.
So don't think I'm taking him lightly.
It's so easy to get paranoid about a lot
of organizations. Take the Trilateral
Commission or the Foreign Relations
Council. Have you ever gone to their
websites and read their mission statements
their bookreading pages? Most of it is
what you and I would aspire to.
Of course, you and I would like to look
a level deeper and analyze deeper motives.
The fact remains: if you are not one of
those insiders there is no way to know
these inner motives.
We outsiders suffer from lack of informa-
tion the lack of which will influence our
judgments. Often, if I would put you in
an equivalent spot with the same info.,
you would act exactly like those "stupid
deluded" insiders.
Now I brace myself for your answer....
:-) OvS

phil288$$$$ $430.3 $$$$#1292472/13/05; 12:14:01

I am often asked where on the web I get my daily news information and I always say USAGOLD. "But that is just gold news, that has nothing to do with what is actually happening", they say. My response is that it has everything to do with what is really going on. The posters here are commenting on the real world as viewed from the skeptical unspun reality of life. Here is a forum attended by contributors from all walks of life and all over the world who comment on a daily basis on their reality. What a bargain, with an ocasional chance at free gold. After all this contest is about "FREE GOLD". I come here daily, I appreciate this forum more than any other on the web, and I applaud MK for putting up with the cost and sometimes conflict that cutting edge ideas generate. None of us know for sure precisely how current events will unfold, but we recognize a key role in gold. Thanks to all posters. Got Gold.
omegaman*****$423.90*****#1292482/13/05; 12:25:23

I check out the USAGold Forum almost every day because I find great views and news that I can use and it helps me to keep my mind active when thinking about the world in general and the gold market more specifically, which seems to be more a part of the international market than most would believe.
Buongiorno!$$$$427.20$$$$#1292492/13/05; 13:41:56

I visit this site several times a day, as time permits. The main reason is that we have some really bright folks here who always nourish my gray matter. Stuff gets pointed out that I may have missed, since it is hard to be everywhere these days. Grazie! Mille grazie! Tutti!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A risk-free request, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.#1292502/13/05; 14:58:55">Get a head start on the gold market!
compwiz4u*****$424.90*****#1292512/13/05; 15:47:41

I read the forum daily. I come here in my continuing search for a glimpse into the true state of the financial and political world. At USA GOLD I often find clear-headed thinking and analysis that help me get through the turmoil and lies that surround us. Thanks to all.
Survivor$$$$ 426.2 $$$$#1292522/13/05; 16:05:11

This is sooo easy: I participate in the forum because of the company I keep while here.

- Survivor

Noble1$$$$422.00$$$$#1292532/13/05; 16:21:43

Hi, my name is Noble1 and I'm a USAGoldaholic. (Everyone responds softly "Hi Noble1"). I visit USAG every time I log on the web which is normally 3X/day. Then, if I'm on for any length of time-I reload. The posters at USAG offer the fix I need to satisfy my physical (PG) urge.
GoldCoaster$$$$$428.30$$$$$$#1292542/13/05; 16:35:53

I read the forum daily as it save's me a lot of time .Here I get the news and well put arguments which add value.
I visit at least once a day,often numerous times.

timbervision$$$$427.9$$$$#1292552/13/05; 18:08:02

USAGOLD is my home page and has been for three years. I read USAGOLD because it is the only place that describes free gold as distinct from paper gold. This is nothing short of profound. As a five month consumer of raw plant food only, my body is telling/showing me how cooked food is not the real thing, rather a slow but sure cellular and organ destroyer. Paper anything is the same. It looks good and feels good when you've got it, but it slowly breaks down and in the end leaves you wondering what happened, and lamenting, "I did everything right!!!--with my well diversified portfolio."
Believer$$$$$430.30$$$$$#12925602/13/05; 18:47:53

my guess is $$$$$430.30$$$$$.

I read the USAGOLD site daily because I am looking for better information about what is happening and why it is happening in the world of finance. I believe the information is good on this site and has helped me to make better decisions. On Friday I heard that MBNA and Bank of America have decided to increase the minimum payment on their credit cards from two to four percent. I believe that this is a sign of a decrease in credit availablity, an increase in inflation and an increase in the price of gold and silver. Keep up the good work USAGOLD and GATA.

Rocky$$$$431.6$$$$#12925702/13/05; 18:50:26

I read the USAGOLD Forum as often as I can find the time, usually more than once a week, because I find many of the postings entertaining, interesting and occasionally informative.
Believer(No Subject)#12925802/13/05; 18:50:47

Sorry, just noticed the other guess. I will change mine to $$$$$430.50$$$$$
Black Blade$$$$427.00$$$$#12925902/13/05; 18:50:49

I read the USAGOLD forum to understand the thoughts of like-minded people who understand the growing dangers threatening the global economy and the need to prepare against those dangers for the benefit of themselves and their families.
Alchemist$$$$$424.70$$$$$$#12926002/13/05; 19:15:55

I read the USA gold forum daily because that is where I get my news on what of importance is going on in the world. I no longer watch the television or very seldom read the papers because of the biases present. I find the dialogue that happens on the gold forum is able to work its way to what is I feel is as close to the truth about the event that might be realized by the public. Once one has the basic knowledge of what is happening by keeping a light observation of events one may intuitivately tune in to the truth.
Thank you all that do the frequent postings as well as the US gold people for keeping up such a good forum. I appreciate the dedication to helping one toward the truth of what is transpiring in the world

Yellow Jacket$$$$$426.9$$$$$$$#12926102/13/05; 20:11:33

I read the USA Gold forum every day. I like the infor mation ,thoughts and opinions on the economy and markets.
Golden Lionheart$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$418.60$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$#12926202/13/05; 20:30:31

I read the USA Gold Forum daily. I enjoy the informed comment. I have read it whilst sitting between two noisy computer game playing Tibetans in Lhasa and whilst downing a cold beer (or three) in Laos. Where ever I read it, it always refreshes my mind. Efcharisto poli MK
TheJuniorMiner$$$$$428.90$$$$$$$#12926302/13/05; 20:33:30

I read the USAGOLD Forum regularly to keep up with economics, currencies and gold. Over the years this forum has offered me an education much different than cable news. Heck, I don't even watch the news anymore. The occasional guessing contests, essay contests and gold specials make reading this forum even more interesting. Thanks USA Gold for this forum, the prizes and the fact you will take US Government backed obligations and exchange it for silver and gold.

POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 2/13/05, Sunday at 20:35 Denver time !

Tick TOCK = REMEMBER the Entry DEADLINE is at MIDNIGHT tonight Denver time!!

Entries listed in order of decending values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (2/9/05; 17:15:29MT - msg#: 129072)

$$$$7,000.0$$$$ Waverider (2/13/05; 08:11:42MT - msg#: 129240)

$$$$ $488.5 $$$$ Merlinsen (2/8/05; 10:00:14MT - msg#: 129004)

$$$$ $454.7 $$$$ Moegold (2/8/05; 14:03:53MT - msg#: 129019)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Beamer (2/9/05; 01:35:04MT - msg#: 129036)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ djac (2/13/05; 09:54:53MT - msg#: 129243)

$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ 7nomads (2/13/05; 08:28:09MT - msg#: 129241)

$$$$ $435.4 $$$$ Wheelthru (2/11/05; 15:20:30MT - msg#: 129180)

$$$$ $434.1 $$$$ mackattack (2/10/05; 16:14:44MT - msg#: 129123)

$$$$ $432.2 $$$$ madmark (2/9/05; 11:12:28MT - msg#: 129051)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ spikedog (02/04/05; 22:50:22MT - msg#: 128898)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ Rocky (02/13/05; 18:50:26MT - msg#: 129257)

$$$$ $431.1 $$$$ Rimh (2/10/05; 14:57:56MT - msg#: 129118)

$$$$ $430.5 $$$$ Believer (02/13/05; 18:47:53MT - msg#: 129256)

$$$$ $430.3 $$$$ phil288 (2/13/05; 12:14:01MT - msg#: 129247)

$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 11:27:26MT - msg#: 128871)

$$$$ $429.6 $$$$ goldenpeace (2/13/05; 06:11:28MT - msg#: 129236)

$$$$ $428.9 $$$$ TheJuniorMiner (02/13/05; 20:33:30MT - msg#: 129263)

$$$$ $428.5 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (2/12/05; 04:30:15MT - msg#: 129199)

$$$$ $428.3 $$$$ GoldCoaster (2/13/05; 16:35:53MT - msg#: 129254)

$$$$ $428.0 $$$$ Clink! (2/12/05; 13:51:32MT - msg#: 129216)
$$$$ $427.9 $$$$ timbervision (2/13/05; 18:08:02MT - msg#: 129255)

$$$$ $427.7 $$$$ Jing Zu (2/13/05; 06:33:58MT - msg#: 129238)
$$$$ $427.6 $$$$ R Powell (2/12/05; 14:30:35MT - msg#: 129220)

$$$$ $427.2 $$$$ Buongiorno! (2/13/05; 13:41:56MT - msg#: 129249)

$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Black Blade (02/13/05; 18:50:49MT - msg#: 129259)
$$$$ $426.9 $$$$ Yellow Jacket (02/13/05; 20:11:33MT - msg#: 129261)
$$$$ $426.8 $$$$ The Hoople (2/10/05; 07:55:24MT - msg#: 129093)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck (02/04/05; 17:10:03MT - msg#: 128888)

$$$$ $426.3 $$$$ commish (2/12/05; 22:47:01MT - msg#: 129231)
$$$$ $426.2 $$$$ Survivor (2/13/05; 16:05:11MT - msg#: 129252)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (02/04/05; 16:52:40MT - msg#: 128886)

$$$$ $425.8 $$$$ seagull (2/13/05; 05:15:42MT - msg#: 129235)

$$$$ $425.6 $$$$ Felix the Cat (2/12/05; 05:58:07MT - msg#: 129203)

$$$$ $425.3 $$$$ Toolie (2/12/05; 17:07:27MT - msg#: 129224)

$$$$ $425.0 $$$$ John the Jute (2/12/05; 10:05:37MT - msg#: 129211)
$$$$ $424.9 $$$$ compwiz4u (2/13/05; 15:47:41MT - msg#: 129251)

$$$$ $424.7 $$$$ Alchemist (02/13/05; 19:15:55MT - msg#: 129260)

$$$$ $424.5 $$$$ Cometose (2/12/05; 13:40:09MT - msg#: 129214)

$$$$ $424.3 $$$$ Goldilox (2/11/05; 18:37:40MT - msg#: 129185)
$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ lifer (02/04/05; 15:22:20MT - msg#: 128883)

$$$$ $423.9 $$$$ omegaman (2/13/05; 12:25:23MT - msg#: 129248)

$$$$ $423.7 $$$$ Tevye (2/12/05; 14:16:40MT - msg#: 129219)

$$$$ $423.3 $$$$ GoldenBear (2/11/05; 14:35:04MT - msg#: 129174)

$$$$ $423.1 $$$$ Kev (2/11/05; 15:53:50MT - msg#: 129181)

$$$$ $422.6 $$$$ jenika (2/12/05; 08:01:56MT - msg#: 129208)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ slingshot (02/04/05; 15:35:11MT - msg#: 128885)

$$$$ $422.0 $$$$ Noble1 (2/13/05; 16:21:43MT - msg#: 129253)

$$$$ $421.5 $$$$ balzac (2/11/05; 14:45:46MT - msg#: 129176)

$$$$ $421.0 $$$$ Gondolin (2/11/05; 04:42:20MT - msg#: 129154)

$$$$ $420.5 $$$$ Creosote (2/13/05; 09:53:16MT - msg#: 129242)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (2/10/05; 10:19:39MT - msg#: 129102)

$$$$ $419.8 $$$$ servantHeart (2/10/05; 10:36:39MT - msg#: 129104)

$$$$ $419.0 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (2/13/05; 07:44:11MT - msg#: 129239)

$$$$ $418.6 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (02/13/05; 20:30:31MT - msg#: 129262)

$$$$ $418.2 $$$$ Slowman (2/10/05; 05:21:16MT - msg#: 129089)

$$$$ $417.5 $$$$ Goldendome (2/11/05; 00:29:51MT - msg#: 129148)

$$$$ $417.0 $$$$ Shermag (2/12/05; 16:17:22MT - msg#: 129222)

$$$$ $415.9 $$$$ Smeagol (02/05/05; 15:44:17MT - msg#: 128925)

$$$$ $412.1 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (2/9/05; 12:33:20MT - msg#: 129055)

$$$$ $409.0 $$$$ YGM (02/08/05; 04:06:16MT - msg#: 128999)

$$$$ $408.1 $$$$ Henri (2/9/05; 08:02:33MT - msg#: 129041)

$$$$ $407.1 $$$$ 2023 (2/6/05; 23:18:03MT - msg#: 128961)

$$$$ $405.6 $$$$ Chally (2/8/05; 23:34:04MT - msg#: 129034)

$$$$ $400.0 $$$$ DryWasher (2/8/05; 10:57:34MT - msg#: 129009)

$$$$ $398.0 $$$$ DoubleEagle (02/08/05; 01:09:39MT - msg#: 128998)

$$$$ $361.0 $$$$ Sprout (2/10/05; 07:09:43MT - msg#: 129092)


AND -- In case you missed the CALL TO CONTEST ----

Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 10:53:55MT - msg#: 128869)
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ A "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

We shall have a price guessing contest on the closing (Settlement price) of gold for the April COMEX contract (GCJ05) on Wednesday, February 16, 2005, ---BUT all entries must be posted to the TableRound before Midnight on Sunday, February 13th.

The "Price of Gold" (POG) Contest winner -- the person with the closest price guess to the actual Settlement Price -- will receive a nineteenth Century 20 Lira Italian Umberto I coin, (which may be seen at the following LINK).
These coins were Minted between 1880 - 1897 with a Fineness of 0.900, which therefore contains an "Actual Gold Content" of 0.1867 net fine troy ounces of pure GOLD !

There will be also be two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications --- each winning an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.


1) The Winner is the poster with the Price Guess closest to the Settlement price of the COMEX (most active) April 2005 Gold Contract (GCJ05) on the date of Wednesday, February 16, 2005.

3) Price "Guesses" shall be stated in Dollars and tenths !
(Such as $421.0)

4) "Guesses" shall be SHOWN in the SUBJECT BOX location AND enclosed in markers of "Dollar Signs" so as to be OFFICIAL !
(Such as $$$$$ $421.0 $$$$$$$ )

5) ONLY one "Guess" per Knight or Lady is allowed, and once that "Guess" has been "taken" -- no one can duplicate it !! "FIRST COME" has rights to that "Guess".

6) HOWEVER, All "Guesses" MUST be posted before the clock in Denver strikes MIDNIGHT (24:00) on Sunday, February 13, 2005.

7) AND MOST IMPORTANTLY--- (as this part MUST accompany the Price prognostication)
--- In order for your entry to be valid, entries will be REQUIRED to answer the DIFFICULT and controversial subject by "Determining and COMPLETING the following statement": <;-)

I read the USAGOLD Forum ( how often? ) because ------ (in 25 words or more!).

LET the CONTEST continue !

Thinking out loud --- (This is my early Valentine to all !) The COMEX POG will not be changing from the Friday level until AFTER the ENTRY DEADLINE of Sunday MIDNIGHT (Denver time) and therefore everyone that is yet intending to enter this POG CONTEST has only to determine what will happen on MONDAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY to win the GOLD and Silver prizes ! Don't PROGRASTINATE !

NTgeo$$$$425.2$$$$#12926502/13/05; 20:50:43

Anyone interested in reading commentary and wise words about gold and currencies would make the gold forum their first port of call. I always do!
Gandalf the WhiteWOWSERS --- Look at the US$ Chart tonight !!!#12926602/13/05; 20:52:22

GAP and PLUNGE !!!

Ananse$$$$$429.5$$$$$#12926702/13/05; 20:56:15

I read the USA Gold Forum because six years ago, the economic nonsense said, "going up, going up - never coming down!" That doesn't work. When I found the Forum, everything resonated. I read daily because the information here feels right and the folks are friendly.
Mr GreshamO, Mighty Wizard!#12926802/13/05; 20:58:07

Did YOU leave that banana peel on USD's front doorstep?
Caradoc*******$436.1*******#12926902/13/05; 21:08:03

I read this forum almost daily because its ongoing assessment of what's going on in the world amounts to a "think tank" with insightful posters looking at important events (not the junk that makes up official "news"), chewing on why these events are happening, and providing clues about what might happen next.

A sincere "thank you" to all here!


Boilermaker*********429.10*******#12927002/13/05; 21:34:34

I read the USAGOLD Forum daily because its just the most fascinating and educational forum offered to the world and its all free, addictive but free!! And it's just as likely to save your bacon if you follow the self-help prescriptions offered by some of the world's greatest financial gurus.
goldquest$$$$$428.70$$$$#12927102/13/05; 21:37:17

I read the USAGOLD Forum daily, usually several times a day.
The valuable information gained from this forum and its contributors has helped me in deciding many of my investment strategies.
Prior to the latest Gulf War, thanks to Black Blades insight and evaluation of several companies that could benefit from hostilities, after a little research, I made a modest amount from an investment in one of these companies. I quickly cashed out and reinvested in my favorites, gold and silver.
I might add that in keeping within the guidelines of the forum, BB never mentioned specific names of companies, just the type businesses that they were in.
Hope to pay you back someday BB, at least with many Negro Modelos!!!!

Druid$$$$431.5$$$$#12927202/13/05; 21:46:27

Druid: I read the USAGOLD website daily because the table round here at the castle sets the standard for thinking outside the proverbial goldbox when it comes to analyzing and commenting on the subject of gold. Sometimes when you come across the concept of quality, it's extremely difficult to describe and define but you know that it just is. That's what this forum represents when discussing the subject of gold. Thank you all.
401KayPrice of Gold $$$$ 429.8 $$$$#12927302/13/05; 21:48:36

Before I found the forum, I didn't even know how much I didn't know about money and gold. It's been quite a learning curve, and you can be sure I'll continue to show up for class every day.


physicalmanPrice of Gold$$$$441.00$$$$$$#12927402/13/05; 22:06:36

I have visited the mighty oaken table for 5+ years now, because, as Ari said to me a few years back" It is like a flower in the desert" The thoughts and information available here will uncloud your vision as to the machinations of what is happening
GoldiloxTesla, etc.#12927502/13/05; 22:11:21

@ OvS,

As we are off the "open forum" hours now, I will try not to rant, but I want to reply to your post. I have been studying Tesla and related developments for a number years now, and the most confusing thing is that although many "inventions" seem to show some promise, it is difficult to corrrelate many of them to "known" theoretical physics. This could be considered non-confirmation, to use the DOW theory terminology, or it could mean that lab results often precede theoretical exposition. I tend to think both are true, so it complicates the analysis.

From a conspiratorial view, my concern is that too much official scientific effort is expended in belittling the "non-mainstream", as opposed to testing alternative ideas for validity or not. Astronomy and weather sciences seem to be obvious culprits, as they are still in their infancy, but the current quagmire of Merck, et al, suggests it also pervades Big Pharma and Big Medicine. It also seems that much really forward looking science is "wrapped up" in government "red tape", often to the benefit of existing lobbies. Witness the current legislative mess surrounding the FDA control of vitamins and mineral food additives. I have been in contact with my US Senator regarding this topic, as it is rapidly degenerating into a prescription nightmare for for simple therapies like vitamin C.

It appears to me that the academic community is as protective of their pet theories as is the "creationist" community, often "labeling" research that is outside the accepted theoretical bounds in an almost "religiously heretical" light. When I went to school (many decades ago), research was expected to yield non-confirming results a good pecentage of the time. Now it seems that the "exploratory" spirit of research is downplayed by many previous devotees of "scientific methodology", perhaps to protect their academic hierarchies, their current markets, and their research grant process.

'Nuff said for now. I'll leave this topic until the next "open forum" hours.

MKThe Forum Contest#12927602/13/05; 22:13:15

I will always cherish these last several days at this honored Table. The words spoken here will not be forgotten. It is a pleasure to be associated with this fellowship of common interest that stretches its reach across the globe.

As Golden Lionheart says. . .

Efcharisto poli.

Thank you very much.

And thank you, mighty and honorable wizard, for doing your usual bang-up job as Contest moderator, with and additional metion of thanks to our Sitemaster who quietly works his own kind of magic day-in, day-out behind the scenes making all of this possible on an on-going basis.

Bottom Bouncerprice of gold#12927702/13/05; 22:14:54

makcumka$$$$ 430.0 $$$$#12927802/13/05; 22:22:48

I try to read USAGold forum daily. Four years ago, I found this forum and got curious about gold. Three years ago, I got my first coin. Two years ago, I made my first post. A year ago, I got some silver (Sir R Powell finally convinced me). Today, I feel more financialy secure than yesterday. Tomorrow, I will read the forum pages and will know more. In three days, I hope to be a proud owner of a new gold or silver piece. None of these things are possible without this forum, which has become a part of my life, my news source, my university and, on some days, my place to just relax and read.

Thank you CPM and all fine posters here.

Tranquility Base$$$$$$$427.4$$$$$$#12927902/13/05; 22:26:06

I read the USAGOLD Forum 3X each day as I break it into bitesized portions. This way my bride and children never accuse me of neglect and this frequency allows me the privelege to remasticate all which has not been digested. I enjoy the comradery gained through a unified desire to understand and I also appreciate the opinionated exchanges that occsionally develop. Most of all this forum gives me CONFIDENSE as an investor in gold, both coins and stocks, to stand tall in my saddle when the headwinds of price corrections hit me in the face. This confidense lends to a calmness and thus my name:

Tranquility Base here, the (gold) Eagle has landed

yellowmetal$$$$$ 432.5 $$$$$#12928002/13/05; 22:29:21

I am reading this forum several times a day because of the vast amount of valuable information provided here concerning the "Real Money" (precious metals). In some form it is to me kind of addictive and enlightening.
slowrunnerSlowrunner - not Slowman $$$$$427.3$$$$$$#12928102/13/05; 22:30:51

I have been a daily lurker and reader of this forum for about 6 months. I first found you when I came across the discussions of Another and FoA and started to read their postings. I am attracted by the intellectual level of the discussion and the wisdom, knowledge and insight the Knight and Lady Posters bring to this forum. This forum provides an opportunity for serious discussion of what is real in our lives. I have found that personal relationships and gold are the real that we must hold fast. We live in a time of lies - so many lies to tell so little time. Gold does not lie-it is. Get you some.
Black Blade@goldquest msg#: 129271#12928202/13/05; 22:33:00

And may I say a hearty KA CHING!!! to you. ;-)

Glad to hear of your success.

On a side note, I forgot to say how many times I read USAGOLD forum. Ah hell, it's set as my home page.

- Black Blade

Gandalf the WhiteTATA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA#1292832/13/05; 23:11:23

Less than ONE HOUR to go before Entry DEADLINE !!!
otish mountain$$$$433.00$$$$#1292842/13/05; 23:24:23

I read the USA Gold Forum daily and have so for the last 5 years. This is my primary site to keep abreast of daily events on a macroeconomic scale. As others have said there is a level of intelligence spoken here not found anywhere else.
Also I find there is a sense of community here of which I am part of.

specie-man$$$$$$ 439.0 $$$$$$#1292852/13/05; 23:59:52

I read the opinions here at this forum whenever I get the urge to cash in some metal holdings for paper profit. And then I don't (sell).


POG CONTEST UPDATE as of 2/14/05, MONDAY at 00:01 Denver time
YES, the clock at USAGOLD has struck MIDNIGHT Denver time and the POG CONTEST is now closed to Entries !

We await the COMEX CGJ05 Contract SETTLEMENT on Wednesday 2/16/2005 to find the WINNERS !

Entries listed in order of decending values !

$$$$8,752.0$$$$ The Invisible Hand (2/9/05; 17:15:29MT - msg#: 129072)

$$$$7,000.0$$$$ Waverider (2/13/05; 08:11:42MT - msg#: 129240)

$$$$ $488.5 $$$$ Merlinsen (2/8/05; 10:00:14MT - msg#: 129004)

$$$$ $454.7 $$$$ Moegold (2/8/05; 14:03:53MT - msg#: 129019)

$$$$ $444.4 $$$$ Beamer (2/9/05; 01:35:04MT - msg#: 129036)

$$$$ $441.0 $$$$ physicalman (02/13/05; 22:06:36MT - msg#: 129274)

$$$$ $439.0 $$$$ specie-man (2/13/05; 23:59:52MT - msg#: 129285)

$$$$ $437.0 $$$$ djac (2/13/05; 09:54:53MT - msg#: 129243)

$$$$ $436.7 $$$$ Bottom Bouncer (02/13/05; 22:14:54MT - msg#: 129277)

$$$$ $436.1 $$$$ Caradoc (02/13/05; 21:08:03MT - msg#: 129269)
$$$$ $436.0 $$$$ 7nomads (2/13/05; 08:28:09MT - msg#: 129241)

$$$$ $435.4 $$$$ Wheelthru (2/11/05; 15:20:30MT - msg#: 129180)

$$$$ $434.1 $$$$ mackattack (2/10/05; 16:14:44MT - msg#: 129123)

$$$$ $433.0 $$$$ otish mountain (2/13/05; 23:24:23MT - msg#: 129284)

$$$$ $432.5 $$$$ yellowmetal (02/13/05; 22:29:21MT - msg#: 129280)

$$$$ $432.2 $$$$ madmark (2/9/05; 11:12:28MT - msg#: 129051)

$$$$ $432.0 $$$$ spikedog (02/04/05; 22:50:22MT - msg#: 128898)

$$$$ $431.6 $$$$ Rocky (02/13/05; 18:50:26MT - msg#: 129257)
$$$$ $431.5 $$$$ Druid (02/13/05; 21:46:27MT - msg#: 129272)

$$$$ $431.1 $$$$ Rimh (2/10/05; 14:57:56MT - msg#: 129118)

$$$$ $430.5 $$$$ Believer (02/13/05; 18:47:53MT - msg#: 129256)

$$$$ $430.3 $$$$ phil288 (2/13/05; 12:14:01MT - msg#: 129247)

$$$$ $430.0 $$$$ makcumka (02/13/05; 22:22:48MT - msg#: 129278)
$$$$ $429.9 $$$$ Gandalf the White (02/04/05; 11:27:26MT - msg#: 128871)
$$$$ $429.8 $$$$ 401Kay (02/13/05; 21:48:36MT - msg#: 129273)

$$$$ $429.6 $$$$ goldenpeace (2/13/05; 06:11:28MT - msg#: 129236)
$$$$ $429.5 $$$$ Ananse (02/13/05; 20:56:15MT - msg#: 129267)

$$$$ $429.1 $$$$ Boilermaker (02/13/05; 21:34:34MT - msg#: 129270)

$$$$ $428.9 $$$$ TheJuniorMiner (02/13/05; 20:33:30MT - msg#: 129263)

$$$$ $428.7 $$$$ goldquest (02/13/05; 21:37:17MT - msg#: 129271)

$$$$ $428.5 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (2/12/05; 04:30:15MT - msg#: 129199)

$$$$ $428.3 $$$$ GoldCoaster (2/13/05; 16:35:53MT - msg#: 129254)

$$$$ $428.0 $$$$ Clink! (2/12/05; 13:51:32MT - msg#: 129216)
$$$$ $427.9 $$$$ timbervision (2/13/05; 18:08:02MT - msg#: 129255)

$$$$ $427.7 $$$$ Jing Zu (2/13/05; 06:33:58MT - msg#: 129238)
$$$$ $427.6 $$$$ R Powell (2/12/05; 14:30:35MT - msg#: 129220)

$$$$ $427.4 $$$$ Tranquility Base (02/13/05; 22:26:06MT - msg#: 129279)
$$$$ $427.3 $$$$ slowrunner (02/13/05; 22:30:51MT - msg#: 129281)
$$$$ $427.2 $$$$ Buongiorno! (2/13/05; 13:41:56MT - msg#: 129249)

$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Black Blade (02/13/05; 18:50:49MT - msg#: 129259)
$$$$ $426.9 $$$$ Yellow Jacket (02/13/05; 20:11:33MT - msg#: 129261)
$$$$ $426.8 $$$$ The Hoople (2/10/05; 07:55:24MT - msg#: 129093)

$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck (02/04/05; 17:10:03MT - msg#: 128888)

$$$$ $426.3 $$$$ commish (2/12/05; 22:47:01MT - msg#: 129231)
$$$$ $426.2 $$$$ Survivor (2/13/05; 16:05:11MT - msg#: 129252)

$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (02/04/05; 16:52:40MT - msg#: 128886)

$$$$ $425.8 $$$$ seagull (2/13/05; 05:15:42MT - msg#: 129235)

$$$$ $425.6 $$$$ Felix the Cat (2/12/05; 05:58:07MT - msg#: 129203)

$$$$ $425.3 $$$$ Toolie (2/12/05; 17:07:27MT - msg#: 129224)
$$$$ $425.2 $$$$ NTgeo (02/13/05; 20:50:43MT - msg#: 129265)

$$$$ $425.0 $$$$ John the Jute (2/12/05; 10:05:37MT - msg#: 129211)
$$$$ $424.9 $$$$ compwiz4u (2/13/05; 15:47:41MT - msg#: 129251)

$$$$ $424.7 $$$$ Alchemist (02/13/05; 19:15:55MT - msg#: 129260)

$$$$ $424.5 $$$$ Cometose (2/12/05; 13:40:09MT - msg#: 129214)

$$$$ $424.3 $$$$ Goldilox (2/11/05; 18:37:40MT - msg#: 129185)
$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ lifer (02/04/05; 15:22:20MT - msg#: 128883)

$$$$ $423.9 $$$$ omegaman (2/13/05; 12:25:23MT - msg#: 129248)

$$$$ $423.7 $$$$ Tevye (2/12/05; 14:16:40MT - msg#: 129219)

$$$$ $423.3 $$$$ GoldenBear (2/11/05; 14:35:04MT - msg#: 129174)

$$$$ $423.1 $$$$ Kev (2/11/05; 15:53:50MT - msg#: 129181)

$$$$ $422.6 $$$$ jenika (2/12/05; 08:01:56MT - msg#: 129208)

$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ slingshot (02/04/05; 15:35:11MT - msg#: 128885)

$$$$ $422.0 $$$$ Noble1 (2/13/05; 16:21:43MT - msg#: 129253)

$$$$ $421.5 $$$$ balzac (2/11/05; 14:45:46MT - msg#: 129176)

$$$$ $421.0 $$$$ Gondolin (2/11/05; 04:42:20MT - msg#: 129154)

$$$$ $420.5 $$$$ Creosote (2/13/05; 09:53:16MT - msg#: 129242)

$$$$ $420.0 $$$$ Lothar of the Hill People (2/10/05; 10:19:39MT - msg#: 129102)

$$$$ $419.8 $$$$ servantHeart (2/10/05; 10:36:39MT - msg#: 129104)

$$$$ $419.0 $$$$ Max Rabbitz (2/13/05; 07:44:11MT - msg#: 129239)

$$$$ $418.6 $$$$ Golden Lionheart (02/13/05; 20:30:31MT - msg#: 129262)

$$$$ $418.2 $$$$ Slowman (2/10/05; 05:21:16MT - msg#: 129089)

$$$$ $418.1 $$$? Federal_Reserves (2/10/05; 16:42:30MT - msg#: 129125)

$$$$ $417.5 $$$$ Goldendome (2/11/05; 00:29:51MT - msg#: 129148)

$$$$ $417.0 $$$$ Shermag (2/12/05; 16:17:22MT - msg#: 129222)

$$$$ $415.9 $$$$ Smeagol (02/05/05; 15:44:17MT - msg#: 128925)

$$$$ $412.1 $$$$ pilgrims_gold (2/9/05; 12:33:20MT - msg#: 129055)

$$$$ $409.0 $$$$ YGM (02/08/05; 04:06:16MT - msg#: 128999)

$$$$ $408.1 $$$$ Henri (2/9/05; 08:02:33MT - msg#: 129041)

$$$$ $407.1 $$$$ 2023 (2/6/05; 23:18:03MT - msg#: 128961)

$$$$ $405.6 $$$$ Chally (2/8/05; 23:34:04MT - msg#: 129034)

$$$$ $400.0 $$$$ DryWasher (2/8/05; 10:57:34MT - msg#: 129009)

$$$$ $398.0 $$$$ DoubleEagle (02/08/05; 01:09:39MT - msg#: 128998)

$$$$ $361.0 $$$$ Sprout (2/10/05; 07:09:43MT - msg#: 129092)


BelgianRumors ???#1292872/14/05; 01:25:28

Will the US Treasury *** re-issue *** USTB-30 yrs ??? Of utmost importance for trends and fundamentals.
YGMBelgian.....Bonds?#1292882/14/05; 01:51:04

What's next to stave of Systemic Financial catastrophe...50 yr Bonds...100 yr Bonds...Derivatives/Puts/Hedges/ somebody has to pay... The greater the debt the farther out they try to place the reckoning...Is a major decline in Bond Issuance Purchases our signal??...Seems like at every turn of the debt screw there's a new instrument for the great gullible unwashed to place money and faith in....Lord help those who have no Physical PMs...(and those who favor Gold ETF's)...This just cannot go on much longer?...Yes/No?...Personal Opinion?....YGM
TownCrierAn article at odds with itself#1292892/14/05; 02:11:56

(Mineweb) IMF gold sales


"...If all the official gold were not in the hands of these government institutions gold would most likely already be trading at over $750 an ounce."


"Maybe the IMF should actually be buying gold to shore up its balance sheet."


"...since gold is owned by liberals and conservatives, republicans and democrats the best possible and potent political force in America will be at work against the IMF gold sales ... and that force is unstoppable. The force is a coalition. When the right and left get together in this country on any issue it is all over but the shouting. Since the IMF gold sales will harm the pocketbooks of Democrats as well as Republicans, it would seem the IMF votes needed to sell gold will not happen."


"Central bankers will most likely continue, as usual, to scare the price of gold down from time to time by statements of gold sales. But they are all too keenly aware ... that the gold market should not be manipulated when it effects ... tens of millions of retirement and investment accounts of ordinary people the world over."

^------(from url)-----^

A cornucopia of contradictions and counterindications.

For example, it says gold would be higher ("over $750 an ounce") if officials held LESS of it, yet the IMF should consider holding MORE of it to "shore up" its balance sheet??

For example, Republicans and Democrats each own gold, and in the interest of higher prices they will prevent the IMF from holding less of it??

etc., etc...

Simply more evidence that the hardest thing most people will (n)ever understand is the current (passing) gold market regime.

Ironically, the easiest thing they will ever understand is the upcoming gold market regime. That will become its strong suit, built for generations of service.


968Will Washington tolerate a Chinese-Venezuelan pact?#1292902/14/05; 03:20:35

by Seth R. DeLong
17-01-05 Will Washington tolerate a Chinese-Venezuelan petroleum pact?
-- Venezuela is quickly emerging as a major player in the global energy game due to China's skyrocketing energy demands and the escalating instability of oil sources in the Middle East and West Africa.
-- As a part of his ongoing campaign against US pressure to comply with neo-liberal economic policies, President Hugo Chavez has renewed his proposal for a regional South American oil block.
-- A Latin American OPEC would inevitably rile the Bush administration as such a development falls outside of Washington's plans for hemispheric trade. The Bush administration must be apprehensive about Chavez's recent visit to China and his resultant bilateral agreement with Beijing that will lure further investment in Venezuela's energy sector.
-- Chavez's goal of reducing his country's almost total dependence on the US oil market may precipitate a global shift in which China will benefit by helping to meet its exponentially growing energy demands with Latin American oil.
-- Meanwhile, Washington has not ruled out "the Schlesinger-Kissinger option." In the event of any de-facto Venezuelan oil embargo against the US, the White House would be wise to realize that in the long term, a Chinese arrangement with a Latin American petro block would be tantamount to an anti-US oil embargo.

The US-Venezuela oil split approaches a boiling point
Although Venezuela has long been one of the US's top four foreign suppliers of crude, relations between the two countries have grown quite acrimonious since the Bush administration's tacit support of the failed coup against populist president Hugo Chavez in April of 2002.
How the Bush administration has been dealing with Caracas repeats a well-known cycle to any student of US/Latin American relations: support of overt or covert coups against democratically-elected regimes eventually ignites a backlash of popular support for the embattled government against the "imperialist gringos." This is likely to motivate Washington to even more aggressively back its favoured opposition, generating an even stronger wave of popular backlash.

The crucial difference between the recent US support of the middle-class opposition in Venezuela -- mainly through the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and the US Agency for International Aid (USAID) -- versus its earlier backing of the Somoza, Batista, Duvalier and Pinochet dictatorships, is that Washington can ill afford to antagonize the populist government from which it receives anywhere between 11 % and 15 % of its imported petroleum.
This is one situation where Washington simply cannot risk an oil crisis for the sake of indulging the administration's numerous nostalgic cold warriors, like Assistant Secretary of State Roger Noriega and Undersecretary of State John Bolton.

But despite the Bush administration's tacit support of the 2002 coup and the substantial funds that the NED poured into the failed recall referendum last August, Chavez has, so far, not given any indication that he intends to cut petroleum exports to the US. He did, however, tell Washington to not "even think about trying something similar in Venezuela," referring to what he claims was Washington's orchestrated coup against former Haitian President Jean-Bertrand Aristide in February, 2004.
Should the US follow this course, he optimistically observed that Venezuela "has enough allies on this continent to start a 100-year war," and that "US citizens could forget about ever getting Venezuelan oil."

Enter the dragon
In December 2004, President Chavez met with his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, in Beijing to discuss a new bilateral agreement regarding access to Venezuela's energy market. Under the agreement, which Chavez pushed because, in his words, "this is what is needed in the world in order to break with unilateralism." As a result, Caracas will help Beijing with additions to the latter's strategic oil reserves in exchange for Chinese investment in Venezuela's agricultural sector and the development of fifteen currently shut down oil fields.
This meeting was preceded by Chavez's renewed calls for the creation of PetroSur, a Latin American version of OPEC. Political scientist Alberto Garrido, of the University of Los Andes, reasoned that Chavez "is trying to give a regional, Latin American dimension to his Bolivarian revolution, as reflected in documents from his movement that date back to far before he made it to power."

This dimension cannot simply be chalked up to the Chavistas' heady nationalistic rhetoric or to Chavez's frequent cheeky barbs against Washington. Rather, Chavez likely sees such a block as a defensive bulwark against any conceivable future US intervention against him as well as a means of gaining the kind of steely international leverage that has been famously found in OPEC.
Garrido continued, Venezuela "is not only buying Russian weapons to free itself from military dependence on Washington, but the governmentis also trying to get Venezuelans ready for a possible scenario of confrontation, as reflected by (Chavez's) recent calls to prepare the reserve."

Chavez's brinkmanship
None of this can be welcome news to Washington policymakers who are having increasing difficulty finding, or even maintaining, stable sources of oil. With al-Qaeda attacks in Saudi Arabia, the insurgents' continuing sabotage of Iraqi and Colombian pipelines, and civil unrest in Nigeria, US oil managers can only get more desperate in their search for reliable petro exports.
With the largest proven oil reserves in the Western Hemisphere (77.8 bn barrels), bilateral deals with China, and an attractive six-day transport time to US ports -- as opposed to five weeks from the Middle East -- Chavez is forcing Washington to take a more protracted look south. Whether the volatile Venezuelan leader is playing a reckless game with Washington that could get him swatted, or is adroitly acting in his country's best interests, is a question that could be explosively answered in a relatively short period.

Evocations of the Monroe Doctrine
In 2003, China surpassed Japan as the world's second largest oil consumer. Given that by 2025 China's net oil imports are projected to be 9.4 mm bpd, the US Energy Information Agency predicts that by 2030 China will be importing as much oil as the US is currently (11.8 mm bpd). With its energy consumption expected to double in the next decade, China is looking into markets that traditionally have supplied most of their crude to the US.
Though Beijing has no choice but to attempt to sate its country's skyrocketing petro demands, the China problem, from Washington's view, is that any increase in Beijing's dependence on Caracas invariably cuts into one of its few remaining, relatively stable sources of crude. Ironically, then, Washington must either throw many carrots at Caracas, or use a very big stick against it.

Drawing a bead on the largest Western Hemispheric reserves would certainly represent a dicey move on Beijing's part. Moreover, China's recent initiative towards Venezuela comes at a time when Beijing has just recently indicated that it has similar designs on Canadian oil markets that today are dominated by the US In other words, not only is Beijing poking its nose in "our backyard," but Washington's front yard as well.
The New York Times reported on December 23, 2004 that, according to Murray Smith, a former Alberta energy minister, "The China outlet would change our dynamic. Our main link would still be with the US, but this would give us multiple markets and competition for a prized resource." How will Washington view Beijing's initiative towards the US's largest source of oil imports? The same Times story cited Calgary's The National Post, which pithily editorialised, "Watch the Americans have a hissy fit if a Chinese incursion materializes... So far, the Americans have taken Canada's energy for granted."

Thus, the immediate short-term problem facing Washington from the Caracas/Beijing axis is two-fold; on the one hand, it cannot allow China to get too cosy with one of its closest suppliers, which may provoke Washington to exhume the Monroe Doctrine. On the other hand, Washington's current policy of siding with the anti-Chavez opposition risks the very outcome Washington seeks to avoid; pushing Caracas into Beijing's arms or precipitating an anti-Washington embargo.
Given the seemingly unstoppable popularity of Chavez, who has, to date, won two presidential elections and a referendum -- all with comfortable majorities -- the first sensible thing Washington must do is cease its open courting of the opposition. After all, how would Washington policymakers feel if French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin spent millions of euros in support of a domestic opposition in the US, whose stated goal was the removal of President Bush from office?

If the NED intends to live up to its own charter, then it has to stop backing the egregiously undemocratic, even authoritarian methods of the opposition. Claiming that Chavez "must die like a dog because he deserves it," former president and would-be leader of the opposition, Carlos Andres Perez, revealed his reverence for democratic ideals last July:
"We can't just get rid of Chavez and immediately have a democracy... we will need a transition period of two or three years to lay the foundations for a state where the rule of law prevails... When Chavez falls, we must shut down the National Assembly (Congress) and also the Supreme Court."

Kissinger redux?
Though Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld has most likely managed to exhaust the offensive capacity of the US military for the foreseeable future, it would behove the increasingly feisty Chavez to review the recently declassified British intelligence document of December 13, 1973 entitled "Middle East -- Possible Use of Force by the United States." The Foreign Office memo cited a warning by former Secretary of Defence James R. Schlesinger to the British ambassadorin Washington, Lord Cromer, that the administration would not tolerate threats from "under-developed, under-populated" countries.
As noted by The Washington Post in January of 2004, Kissinger later wrote in his memoir, Years of Upheaval: "These were not empty threats. I ordered a number of studies from the key departments on countermeasures against Arab members of OPEC if the embargo continued. By the end of the month, several contingency plans had been completed."

Given that the US annually imports as much or more oil from Venezuela as from Riyadh, Chavez should be well advised that any talk of an embargo could trigger a US military intervention. He may risk setting the stage for this possibility if he is perceived by Washington as being too nettlesome in setting up a new OPEC, or if he gets too close to Beijing for Washington's comfort.
Some analysts are already predicting a global clash between the US and China over oil reserves that could trigger a veritable casus belli. As stated by Gal Luft, executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, in a recent editorial in The Los Angeles Times, "Without a comprehensive strategy designed to prevent China from becoming an oil consumer on par with the US, a superpower collision is in the cards." Dr Luft suggests the US do everything it can to shift China in the direction of non-petro based energy supplies, such as hydrogen or natural gas. However, barring such a spectacular advance in the technology of harvesting hydrogen fuel cells or the like, China will need to look anywhere it can in order to satisfy its petro consumption demand.

So far, neither Chinese nor US authorities have, at least publicly, anticipated anything like a global clash over energy sources. Chinese Embassy spokesman Sun Weide said, "Of course, as our two economies continue to grow, we both need reliable and, I think, affordable energy supplies... So, there is very good basis for cooperation between the two countries."
But such optimism belies the fact thatWashington is facing an almost certain intrusion into its oil markets by the world's second largest petro importer. Though Beijing will somehow have to satisfy its energy demand, which grows annually at 7.5 %, Washington will not look kindly on any such incursion into its traditional oil suppliers. As observed by Luft in The New York Times, "China's gone after the low-hanging fruit so far. Now they're entering another level of ambition, in places such as Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Canada that are well within the American sphere."

Washington could begin repairing its frayed relationship with Caracas by supporting what is bound to be a growing oil-based alliance between Caracas and Beijing. Given the near inevitability of this new alliance, Washington would be foolish to obstruct China's economic growth by trying to dictate to Chavez where he can and cannot sell his country's oil.
Furthermore, just as many US public figures are demanding that their government reduce its imports of Middle East oil, so too are Venezuelans urging Chavez to reduce his country's traditional reliance on the US's oil consumption. Now that China is offering Chavez just that opportunity, the question is, will Washington tolerate a Sino-Venezuelan petro pact or begin dusting off the Monroe Doctrine?

This analysis was authored by COHA Senior Research Fellow, Seth R. DeLong, Ph.D.
Source: Scoop Media
What impact will the creation of PetroSur (= Latin American version of OPEC) have on gold ?
What impact will a US military intervention have on gold ?
Thoughts anyone ?

BelgianYGM/TC#1292912/14/05; 05:12:22

The many "planted" rumors and stories, become more and more transparent.
To issue a long term debt in a currency, "succesfully" (!!!) means,... that the buyer-holder of that debt can count
on the reliability (dredibility) of the issuer of the debt and the currency in wich it is issued (UST).
Any state can print fiat and pay back (+ service) any amount of debt issued ! But the main problem lies in the credibility of that state's management of this currency !!!

When the rumor about re-issueing USTB-30 yrs is to be says a lot about the evolving (shaking)credibility of the dollar. Do you wish to hold dollar-debt (UST) for 30 years !? What will be your currency exchange rate and purchasing any given moment during these 30 years ???

Why was the issue of USTB-30 yrs stopped in the first place ? Has dollar-confidence come back during the intermediate period ? Or do they (the dollar printers) wish to simulate confidence (and regained credibility) ?
The "created" mini-trends (positive) simply exist to mask the ongoing fundamentals (negative).

Dollar expansion (easy money) creates the wrong dollar-flows. Any monetary expansion is OK as long as it is proportionate with the real economic expansion. If not, the money flows into "unproductive" financials, resulting in an ever greater decline in money velocity (circulation speed).

Who wants to "hold" such piles upon piles of totally unproductive money !!!???
What if... USTB-30 yrs are to be issued again...and...nobody wants them...unless...there is an ever rising IR coupled to it as to express the lack of confidence (credibility) ?

Let's wait and hear how Greenspan is going to maneuver (the trends...not the fundamentals) on wednesday. The AA markets (and the dollar in particular) keep on counting on God Greenspan's magic...I don't !

TC : You exposed, black on white, another blatant controverse in the long row of intentional perception-building nonsenses.
I do keep agreeing with your 4 lines long (gold)conclusions !

Belgian@986#1292922/14/05; 06:42:33

We are "all" increasingly competing for oil within rapid changing global oil-dynamics. No more doubt about this !

The dollar is going to get most of the increasing oil-burden on its shoulders, because of its "reserve status" !!!

The dollar was able to prolonge its reserve status, through oil...and it will lose its reserve status, because of oil.
Oil then...oil now and in the nearby future !

Gold has been out then...will come in now and even more in the future. Declining finite oil = rising infinite gold !!!

Euroland has no oil, but "special" goldreserves and a currency that will run in paralel with it. China & Co have more than enough trade alternatives, outside the dollar.

South America and Africa have underground gold. India/ME have plenty aboveground gold. Euroland builds Freegold. Russia has plenty of resources. The US and Japan (first and second world's economies) are the biggest consumers of the " available-affordable " energy and therefor the most vulnerable to any kind of embargo or change in oil-dynamics, building in the four corners of our planet.

It is on oil that the global properity (wealth) has been build during the past 100 years ! This very fundamental (fundation) is not to be fooled for another decade. Must be taken very serious by everybody. This process is unfolding right in front of our little noses. One can better wisely conclude that therefor, GOLD should be taken seriously, as well...NOW !

One cannot change all the regimes that refuse to remain dollar-friendly...dollar-supportive. Global Reserve status must permanently be earned (merited). Gold-wealth-reserve, never did anything wrong as to be replaced by dollar-reserve. What is the dollar doing today, as to further merit its global reserve status ?

968@ Belgian#1292932/14/05; 09:00:26

What is the dollar doing today, as to further merit its global reserve status ?

I think the only thing the dollar has to merit its global reserve status to at the moment is a mighty military machine ! But how long can one prolonge its reserve status manu militari ???

BTW :Interesting link on the federal deficits :

Belgian@968#1292942/14/05; 09:49:29

>>> Das Reich, The British Empire, Napoleon, Alexander the Great, Caesar, ...
They all had formidable armies ! They all lost everything.
Forget about military might other than for self defense.

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968@ Belgian#1292962/14/05; 10:39:15

* That's right, but they all first enjoyed the benefits of their armies. And all the examples you mentioned used their armies for imperialism, not for currency defense. (The US considers the use of their army in protecting their $-reserve status as self defense.)

* On the subject of the 30Y T-bond, I found a very interesting remark by Lucas Papademos (Vice-President ECB) this weekend in the German newspaper "Handelblatt". He says :"...a structural change in the demand for long-term bonds may also be involved; institutional and foreign investors may have altered their preferences and increasingly been buying long-term bonds."

While the US Treasury can't propose such investment vehicles to foreign investors, they loose a lot of funding. Maybe one of the reasons why the US Treasury wants to re-issue the bonds lies herein.
Of course the question remains : who wants a 30 year T-bond as store of value or wealth reserve ???????????????

TownCrierDollar falls broadly as Japan data weigh#1292972/14/05; 10:40:30

NEW YORK, Feb 14 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped broadly on Monday after Japanese data highlighted the imbalance between Asian trade surpluses and U.S. deficits...

Japan's current account surplus grew 35.1 percent in December from a year earlier, far higher the forecast 4.5 percent rise.

This underlined the argument for a weaker dollar, particularly after news last week that the U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $617.7 billion in 2004, swelling 25 percent from a year earlier.

Dollar investors are hoping the decline in the dollar will ultimately help correct the United States' gaping trade deficit.

^----(From url)----^

"Dollar investors are hoping the decline in the dollar will ultimately help correct the United States' gaping trade deficit."?????

Since when do "dollar investors" hope for anything other than a RISE in their investment?

The article should probably say instead, "Dollar investors are hoping beyond hope that the dollar's long justified decline will someday soon abate."

But fundamentally it has no reason for doing so. A woe upon "dollar investors".


TownCrierGold climbs, dollar fizzles#1292992/14/05; 11:08:23

NEW YORK, Feb 14 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures climbed to two-week highs ... driven up by improved technicals and ideas that the dollar's New Year rally may have fizzled, traders said.

... selling pressured the dollar on Monday after a jump in Japan's current account surplus

A lower dollar makes dollar-priced precious metals more affordable for non-U.S. buyers.

Dealers said geopolitical issues also played a role in attracting investors to gold as a safe haven, with increasing concerns over the Korean peninsula and tensions between the United States and Iran over Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

With no major U.S. data due on Monday, markets were bracing for Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's semi-annual testimony to Congress Wednesday and Thursday, after his recent optimistic comments about the U.S. current account deficit.

^-----(from url)------^

Not to be outdone by "non-U.S. buyers" who apparently are not daunted about getting their gold more cheaply (with "a lower dollar") as suggested by the article (line 3 above), have you used the dollar's brief "New Year rally" to get more gold for yourself as the higher dollar, in turn, made dollar-priced precious metals more affordable for us domestic buyers?

Or are we to believe that gold-buying is always a foreign affair -- always something done, more or less affordably, by only "non-U.S. buyers"?


GoldiloxDollar Hegemony#1293002/14/05; 11:17:00


Your statement:

"That's right, but they all first enjoyed the benefits of their armies. And all the examples you mentioned used their armies for imperialism, not for currency defense. (The US considers the use of their army in protecting their $-reserve status as self defense.)"

Is there really such a big difference? A historical search of the "spin" of the Imperial Age suggests they are more similar than some might suggest. All of the above advertised that were "liberating" someone.

I'm with Belgian on this issue. Perhaps the biggest risk factor is that rampant Imperialism burns more resources protecting hegemony than can be obtained.

No matter how it is spun, those suggesting that current policies combined with China growth will ramp commodity and metals prices in the long term are placing a reasonably sure bet.

DruidControl all 'tyrannical' world oil chokepoints? A Peek Behind Bush II's 'War on Tyranny' #1293012/14/05; 11:25:05


"Part I:

Control all 'tyrannical' world oil chokepoints?

In recent public speeches, George W. Bush and others in the Administration, including Condi Rice, have begun to make a significant shift in the rhetoric of war. A new 'War on Tyranny' is being groomed to replace the outmoded War on Terror. Far from being a semantic nuance, the shift is highly revealing of the next phase of Washington's global agenda.

In his 20 January inaugural speech, Bush declared, "It is the policy of the United States to seek and support the growth of democratic movements and institutions in every nation and culture, with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world." Bush repeated the last formulation, 'ending tyranny in our world' in the State of the Union. (author's emphasis). In 1917 it was a "war to make the world safe for democracy," and in 1941 it was a "war to end all wars."

The use of tyranny as justification for US military intervention marks a dramatic new step on the road to Washington's quest for global domination. Washington of course today is shorthand for the policy domination by a private group of military and energy conglomerates, from Halliburton to McDonnell Douglas, from Bechtel to ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco, not unlike that foreseen in Eisenhower's 1961 speech warning of excessive control of government by a military-industrial complex.

Congress declared World War II following a Japanese aggressive attack on the US fleet at Pearl Harbor. While Washington stretched the limits of deception and fakery in Vietnam and elsewhere to justify its wars, up to now it has always at least justified the effort with the claim that another power had initiated aggression or hostile military acts against the USA. Tyranny has to do with the internal affairs of a nation: it has to do with how a leader and a people interact, not with its foreign policy. It has nothing to do with aggression against the United States or others. "

Druid: A roadmap reflecting the present administration's plan for controlling the world's gas station pump thereby expanding oil hegemony. An excellent read.

Caradoc@ 968/ Belgian#1293022/14/05; 11:28:40

968: Good reading! Thank you. I was re-reading the "End of Cheap Oil" essays this morning (near bottom of "Hall of Fame" link at top of this page) and got a chill up my spine when re-reading my own entry's picture of a hungry citizenry huddled around their woodburning stoves and hoping their drafted offspring live to come back from Venezuela. Ugly picture, but your link provides some clues about how we could be headed in that direction.

Belgian: Considering your excellent posts on eventual failures in using the military for other than self defense, the idea that maintaining oil pricing in dollars (i.e., the US's defense of the dollar's reserve currency status) amounts to defending itself is equally chilling. And there's no comfort in DoD's raising the soldier's death benefit from $6,000 to $12,000.

Trouble is, some of those eventual failures came about after extended periods of success. Just ask the city fathers of Carthage. My fear is that so long as assuring access to oil is perceived as self defense, we're coming closer to hearing echoes of Cicero's "Carthago delenda est."


Ag Mountain@Druid and the Wars on Tyranny#1293032/14/05; 11:45:26

That's a good way to see it, 'ending tyranny in our world' is probably the defining theme of the decade. Lillipution savers all over the world are buying gold because that's how they fight like foot soldiers in their own personal little battles to end the local tyranny of their own currencies. It'll be up to their central banks to decide when it's time to end the larger-scale tyranny of the dollar, but it'll happen sooner or later just the same.
J-Bullionoptions expiry#1293042/14/05; 11:59:12

Does anyone know offhand what day this month gold/silver futures options expire?


DruidThe End of The Oil Standard #1293052/14/05; 12:08:35

"Few commentators have recognized the significance of OPEC's January 30 decision to temporarily suspend their price band mechanism. If the suspension is indeed temporary, it may not be that important. If it isn't, there are some interesting parallels to the suspension of the U.S. gold standard in 1968 to 1971.

The gold standard was maintained by fixing the dollar price of gold and by federal stockpiling of gold. This was the means by which most currencies had maintained their value since ancient times. By the late nineteenth century, the growth in international trade had made the system difficult to maintain, but it continued for lack of an alternative.

The Bretton Woods agreements at the end of the Second World War reduced the importance of precious metals in the international financial system and the United States government suspended purchases of newly-mined gold in 1968. The United States gold market was fully deregulated in 1971.

Oil was sold at fixed prices under long-term contracts until the nationalizations of the mid-seventies, when oil traders began to play an important role. Oil prices became more transparent in 1983 when crude oil futures began to be traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. From 1979 to 1985, OPEC tried to defend too high a price target and lost market share.

According to Pennwell's Energy Statistics Sourcebook, OPEC production declined from 30.67 million barrels per day in 1979 to 16.02 million barrels per day in 1985. The same source list OPEC's maximum sustainable production capacity as 34.4 million barrels per day in 1985. By the end of 1985, OPEC had 18 million barrels per day of shut-in oil production capacity. It became clear that there had to be a price ceiling as well as a floor. This was the price band.

Viewed from a different angle, an oil price ceiling is a dollar floor. Oil is traded in greater dollar volumes than any other commodity so the oil standard had more liquidity than gold ever did. The value of OPEC's oil production is more than a billion dollars per day. The oil equivalent of Fort Knox was not the Strategic Petroleum Reserve; it was the combined oil reserves of OPEC, three orders of magnitude greater and much larger in value than all the gold mined since the dawn of history. According to the December 20, 2004 issue of the Oil and Gas Journal, the oil reserves of OPEC at yearend 2004 are estimated to be 885 billion barrels.

According to the United States Geological Survey, the total gold ever mined in the world is about 3.4 billion troy ounces. At $42 per barrel for oil and $420 per troy ounce for gold, the value of Opec's reserves is 26 times the value of all gold ever mined. The United States Strategic Petroleum Reserve contained about 680 million barrels as of February 7, so it's role is an emergency supply in case of an oil market disruption; it is too small to have any long-term influence on oil markets.

Was the oil standard an accident or was it a deliberate product of U.S. policy? Motives are difficult to determine and the U.S. Treasury has not claimed to tie the dollar to oil prices. The ultimate effect of the end of the oil standard is difficult to predict, but one should not understate its importance."

Druid: An implied oil standard, hmmm? Not an explicitly stated foreign policy objective which implicitly ties the value of the dollar to oil but the author goes on to do comparative analysis between oil and gold. Now take his analysis which suggest that based on the total amount of oil reserves in terms of potential barrels of supply versus that of all the gold ever mined , oil is much more "valuable".

This is one of the very few articles that I have come across that has made this type of comparison. I don't know that he has made the connection that both oil and gold are being traded for each other in terms of real value and of the two in terms of scarcity, gold is much more valuable which is allowing for oil to flow. The endgame now is what country is going to control the direction of oil flow.

Now let an unfettered market in physical gold transpire to reflect a more accurate PRICE in terms of these two HUGE differentials in quantities between gold and oil and you will in no short order see the difference in VALUE that scarcity has to offer. Yes, gold will be PRICED accordingly to reflect its true WEALTH VALUE in relation to oil and every other commodity or proposed instrument of value.

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1293062/14/05; 12:46:40">
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Monday Market Excerpts

Gold futures rallied into the close Monday, rising 1.3 percent as a beneficiary of renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar.

Extending its winning streak to four, COMEX April gold contracts climbed as high as $427.70 and ended at $427.50, up $5.50.

The benchmark contract has now moved up about 4 percent from its intraday low of last Wednesday.

Bolstering gold, the dollar lost ground against both the euro and Japan's yen after Japanese economic data showed an increase in the No. 2 global economy's current account surplus for December that was much larger than expected.

If the dollar weakens further, "it could be another freefall and in turn a windfall for the precious metal," said Kevin Kerr of Kerr Trading International.

----(see url for 24-hr newswire and market prices)----

R PowellJ-Bullion // expiration dates#1293072/14/05; 13:46:39


R PowellGE // yield curve flattening#1293082/14/05; 14:25:19

Are you still watching? It hasn't been every day but it did today, with short term yields just slightly down but longer term yields appreciably down.

Have you ever tried to corrolate these ups and downs to the POG? I've read that the general (useful?) rule of thumb is that a flattening yield curve sometimes portents a weakening economy. Do you agree or no?

With only existing (limited) supply of the 30 year bonds available, should we now just watch the very short term versus the 10 year notes?
Thoughts, anyone?

Belgian968/Caradoc : Defending the dollar + oil#1293092/14/05; 14:44:51

Gentlemen, don't forget that old Europ + the US, were both defending the dollar for the past 50 years against "tyranny" !!! NATO !!! Fifty years of trans-atlantic multilateralism !!! The US/Europ, both prospered on "cheap" oil in unison !!! We were together on the oil and dollar-standard.

But some fundamentals kept on changing (diverging) during the last 35 years (starting '71). Let's call it the "dollar-rift" between the two former brothers in arms (US/Europ).
And as soon as we diverged "monetarily"...the oil-matters got involved and the dollar started losing its real (loyal)partners.

Watch the EMU (European <MONETARY> Union) rising without showing military might. Watch the dollar needing more and more military might. Where is the strength and where is the weakness ? AND WHY IS THAT SO !!!???

Read 968's ECB posting and pay attention to the enormous differences between Lucas and Alan !!!

Building on (multilateral) self-defense is a sign of strength...using its military for (unilateral) offense is a sign of weakness.

9/11 will go into history as the culminating point of no return.

After 50 years of joint oil exploitation...oil strikes back and we call it tyrannic. After having build (western)prosperity on cheap oil, we now demand "affordable" prices !?

How about the choice between a militaristic dollar (fixed gold) or a golden euro (freegold) ?
Now, we blame oil for starting to build its own self-defense...acts of terror...tiranny !? Is the divide and rule trick working less effectively, when all oil starts to form a coalition in the changing dynamics having become global ? Shall we tame the Asian dragons with further oil-control ...or shall we try to find a common denominator that fits us all...a new International Monetary System...golden !?

I think the "cold" war is over and a "hot" one has already started. Not funny.

Buongiorno!Great Company!#1293102/14/05; 15:31:11

Noticed there are eight knights and ladies between $427 and $428 on the prediction list. Perhaps we are looking at the same set of charts? Good luck to us all, and it certainly is nice to be in such great company!

Ten BearsAntal Fekete -The Good Professor… right on target#1293112/14/05; 15:51:59

Snip> "I consider the contribution of Mises, that economic calculation in a socialist society without private ownership of the means of production is not possible, as one of the greatest, if not the greatest, result of twentieth-century economics. Values do exist in a socialist economy also, since individuals can exchange chattels just as they would in a barter economy. But values cannot be measured for lack of an objective unit of value. (Illegal ownership of gold may carry the death penalty.) Still less can values be added or multiplied. As a result the socialist economy is ultimately doomed for lack of possibility to do economic calculation"

Snip> "Mises also predicted another event, no less momentous, namely the demise of the regime of irredeemable currencies. However, he argued the case on the strength of the QTM, a non sequitur. Mises missed the fact that exactly the same argument applies here as well. No less than in the case of a socialist economy, under the regime of an irredeemable currency businessmen ultimately lose their ability to calculate for lack of an objective unit of value. Gold is prevented from fulfilling its foreordained function because of coercive legal tender laws domestically, bribe and blackmail internationally. For thirty-five years now central bankers have been burning the midnight oil to find ways to fend off the impending catastrophe threatening the world, as a result of the impossibility of economic calculation under a US-imposed regime of irredeemable currency. Their efforts are in vain. This Evil Empire, too, is doomed, and for the same reasons"

Snip> "The Austrians and other hard money advocates are totally unprepared for the self-immolation of the dollar through economic paralysis due to the inability of businessmen to calculate. This would mean deflation in the form of business failures, imploding debt, domino-effect of bankruptcies, unemployment, destruction of wealth and values, a scenario more likely than inflation."

"Self-immolation of the dollar? Certainly. Through inflation? Possibly but not inevitably. Then through deflation, perhaps? Yes indeed, if the dollar turns out to be a tough cooky, and refuses to roll over in a way prescribed by sycophants and cultists."

R PowellHello Ten Bears#1293122/14/05; 16:16:28

The following is a little piece of John Hathaway's
"Beardsley Ruml's road to Ruin". It's very similar in thought.....

"The value of one single, solitary US dollar is impossible to determine. Purchasing power parity, exchange rate versus other currencies, and purchasing power as defined by the consumer price index do not hold the answer. All three benchmarks are flawed. These valuation measures are subject to tinkering by governments to suit their policy aims. We have suggested as much in "The Real Value of a Dollar" (2/14/04), as have many others:

"In the absence of a gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold." (Gold and Economic Freedom, by Alan Greenspan-1966)

The inability of players in the economic realm to judge the value of the unit of exchange categorically leads to mistakes and imbalances that must be rectified in due course. Fundamental analysis of return on investment, whether for family savings or corporate spending, is meaningless in the absence of an objective and fixed unit value of return, or numeraire. Economist David Ricardo reasoned that a fixed and objective unit of account was essential if "one wish(ed) to make interlocal or intertemporal comparisons (in the) problem of measuring value".

Imbalances must proliferate in the absence of an objective standard of value. Credit is extended and capital committed based on artificial suppositions. Asset values are marked to market on the same false pretenses. Returns are illusory; the security of credits a fiction. It is the sort of thing that can only happen, unchecked, in a regime of central planning."

....I always enjoy Hathaway's work, not only for the thoughts he presents but also for the logical order in which he organizes and presents them. He is, imho, a true expert in what used to be called English "composition". His use of language is functional, precise, and exquisite. Thank you Mr. Hathaway!

R PowellHathaway's article#1293132/14/05; 16:18:59

I suppose after praising the man, the least I could do is to provide a link to the article.
J-BullionR Powell#1293142/14/05; 16:24:27

Thank you.
Ten BearsHello R Powell#1293152/14/05; 17:21:58

Thanks for the link to a very good read, and thanks for sharing your perspective here at the round table.
Federal_ReservesBritian envies our social security!#1293162/14/05; 17:57:58

A conservative government sweeps to power for a second term. It views its victory as a mandate to slash the role of the state. In its first term, this policy objective was met by cutting taxes for the wealthy. Its top priority for its second term is tackling what it views as an enduring vestige of socialism: its system of social insurance for the elderly. Declaring the current program unaffordable in 50 years’ time, the administration proposes the privatization of a portion of old-age benefits. In exchange for giving up some future benefits, workers would get a tax rebate to put into an investment account to save for their own retirement.

George W. Bush's America in 2005? Think again. The year was 1984, the nation was Britain, the government was that of Margaret Thatcher -- and the results have been a disaster that America is about to emulate.
For all the fanfare that surrounds the Bush administration's efforts to present a bold new idea on pension reform, the truth is that it is not new at all. In fact, the proposal looks suspiciously like the plan set in train during Thatcher's first term in 1979 and which has since led Britain to the brink of a crisis. Since then, the nation's basic pension, which is paid for out of tax receipts, has shrunk dramatically. The United Kingdom has the stingiest state pension program of any G8 nation, and there is growing consensus -- even among British conservatives -- that reform is needed. And ironically enough, considering that America is on the verge of copying Britain's mistake, most experts seek reform in the direction of a more generous, and simpler, basic state pension -- one similar in design, in other words, to America's Social Security program.

Black BladeMarket Wrapup - Puplava#1293172/14/05; 18:11:26


The Three Faces of Inflation

My weekly grocery bill has gone from $200 to over $300 a week in the last three years. That is significant in itself. However, I am only buying for three people versus five people three years ago. My oldest son has gone off on his own and my middle son has gotten married. My weekly food bill has gone up over 50% even though I now buy for a smaller family. My doctor charges me $80 for an office visit versus $60 the year before. My dentist has raised his fees from $45 to $58 for an office visit. It costs me $12 more to fill my gas tank each week and I'm spending $7 a day at the local deli versus $5 a few years ago. My property taxes just went up significantly and my health care premiums are up double-digits. The last time I went to the movies it cost me almost $60 for just the three of us. The cost of the movie was $29.25 the other $30 was for coke and popcorn.

While my living expenses are going up at 8-10 percent a year, I am constantly told that there is no inflation. Last Friday a Fed governor told the markets that inflation is well contained. There is a dichotomy between what I am told by Wall Street and what I actually experience on Main Street. The media and financial professionals are constantly telling me there is no inflation. Yet, what I experience in daily life shows me otherwise.

Black Blade: Puplava comes out of hibernation with a pretty good read tonight.

Black BladeGold Higher - Analysts Comments#1293182/14/05; 18:26:01{545DB723-3400-4C12-9B2A-45EB3A9836E6}


If the dollar weakens further, "it could be another freefall and in turn a windfall for the precious metal," said Kevin Kerr of Kerr Trading International.

Charlie Nedoss of Peak Trading Group pegged the next level of resistance for gold at about $432.50 an ounce.

But Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends in Commodities, said the rally's showing signs of being overdone, noting that the silver contract rose by more than 11 percent in the final three Nymex sessions last week and that it's "reached a more overbought condition than gold."

Black Blade: Opinions are like..., well in short there are many reasons for higher precious metals prices ranging from the weaker dollar to strong supply-demand fundamentals to geopolitical concerns. And the list goes on and on. Get yours while the price is right. A sizable dip into the Castle Treasury or a go slow "dollar cost averaging" strategy depending on ones means. Whatever it takes as a "portfolio insurance" position is always advisable - especially given the current state of affairs in the world today.

Black BladeIMF gold sale unlikely#1293192/14/05; 18:33:39


While a revaluation is plausible, we see a sale and revaluation as unlikely. There are several key obstacles. First, the IMF would probably need to get agreement from major gold producers such as Canada and South Africa, which in the past have opposed sales of gold by the IMF because this would be detrimental to the mining companies that are contributors to those countries’ economies. Second, the IMF would need to obtain an 85% favorable vote from its members before being able to revalue or sell any of its gold. The entire G7 represents only 45% of IMF votes, and as discussed below, it's not even clear that all members of the G7 would be in favor of the IMF doing anything with its gold. The US holds a 17.3% share of the votes, but the US vote would be dependent on approval from both houses of Congress. Moreover, the US administration has already effectively given the thumbs down to any such plan: On February 4, just ahead of the G7 meetings in London, John Taylor, US Treasury Under Secretary, said: "We're considering all options, but we're not convinced of gold sales for dealing with debt issues."

Even if the IMF were to decide to revalue or sell part of its gold reserves, we don't think that the price would necessarily suffer. Previous examples of IMF revaluation and sale did not drive the price lower.

Revaluation: In theory, a simple revaluation would not have any material effect on the price of gold. Basically, the IMF would be marking its positions to market, without a supply shock,and we think it is likely to maintain this policy in future. In December 1999, the IMF began revaluing 12.9 million ounces (12%) of its total gold holdings in order to generate funding for the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) trust fund. This was a pure revaluation — the IMF did not sell any gold on the open market — and there was no discernible downward effect on the price of gold.

Sale: Under the gold sale scenario, there is a theoretical possibility that the price of gold could decline, but in the past this has not happened.

Black Blade: Precisely!!! As I pointed out earlier.

Gandalf the WhiteCONGRATULATIONS to the "KING OF THE HILL " !!!#1293202/14/05; 18:36:08

SORRY, I was out in the DEEP WOODS, until now, meeting with the ENTS about the new POG defensive PLAN !! <;-)

Monday 2/14/05 Gold COMEX April '05 Contract (GCJ05)
Open = $424.2 HIGH = $427.7 low = $424.0
SETTLEMENT = $427.3 Change +$5.3
Gandalf the White (2/11/05; 22:07:05MT - msg#: 129195)
Fridays COMEX gold-pit action !!! <;-)
COMEX Gold Apr '05 Contract GCJ05
Open = $418.8 HIGH = $423.4 low = $417.7
SETTLEMENT = $422.0 Change = +$3.3
Note that Monday NY COMEX action GAPPED from the Friday Settlement price of $422.0 ----- to the OPENING price of $424.2 and the low price of $424.0 ---- THEREFORE, the following six POG CONTEST ENTRIES "experienced" Sir Aragorn III's "THUNDER in the NIGHT" !!!
$$$$ $423.9 $$$$ omegaman
$$$$ $423.7 $$$$ Tevye
$$$$ $423.3 $$$$ GoldenBear
$$$$ $423.1 $$$$ Kev
$$$$ $422.6 $$$$ jenika
$$$$ $422.3 $$$$ slingshot
(Please come back and explain that thought to the new Lurkers KING Aragorn III)
HOWEVER, the following 22 (TWENTY-TWO) POG CONTEST ENTRIES, at some time today were "KING of the HILL"
$$$$ $427.7 $$$$ Jing Zu
$$$$ $427.6 $$$$ R Powell
$$$$ $427.4 $$$$ Tranquility Base
$$$$ $427.3 $$$$ slowrunner
$$$$ $427.2 $$$$ Buongiorno!
$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Black Blade
$$$$ $426.9 $$$$ Yellow Jacket
$$$$ $426.8 $$$$ The Hoople
$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck
$$$$ $426.3 $$$$ commish
$$$$ $426.2 $$$$ Survivor
$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz
$$$$ $425.8 $$$$ seagull
$$$$ $425.6 $$$$ Felix the Cat
$$$$ $425.3 $$$$ Toolie
$$$$ $425.2 $$$$ NTgeo
$$$$ $425.0 $$$$ John the Jute
$$$$ $424.9 $$$$ compwiz4u
$$$$ $424.7 $$$$ Alchemist
$$$$ $424.5 $$$$ Cometose
$$$$ $424.3 $$$$ Goldilox
$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ lifer
-----Sir Slowman !!!!!
Anyone know an Aesop's fable ?

Black BladeGold and Silver Move Higher - More Analysts Comments#1293212/14/05; 18:37:14


"Gold has rallied sharply due to short covering following a reversal in the recent strength of the dollar," London-based UBS analyst John Reade wrote on Monday.

Gold has gained ground on the return of safe-haven interest following the increase in tensions between Iraq and North Korea on the one hand and the US on the other, as well as on speculation that the US will veto the proposed International Monetary Fund (IMF) gold sales, UK-based analyst James Moore wrote on Monday. "Having held and base built around the $411/oz and $412/oz area, gold should now look to settle back above $420/oz and test back towards $430/oz," Moore added.
"Further bouts of dollar strength can't be ruled out and have the potential to pressure the metal back to between $412/oz and $415/oz, but gold has shown its resilience quite well over the past week and after two weeks of pressure should now look to head higher," Moore wrote.

Black Blade: And so it goes.

Gandalf the WhiteOOPS !! === Question to Sir Aragorn III #1293222/14/05; 18:45:02

Was that "THUNDER" OR "LIGHTNING" in the NIGHT ?
MY Senior moments are more common now !

Gandalf the WhiteDOUBLE OOPS !! The "King of the HILL" is NOT ----#1293232/14/05; 18:56:18

Sir Slowman !!!!
I am the embarrassed Wiz !

R PowellBlack Blade#1293242/14/05; 18:57:04

Thanks for the heads up to the financialsense article.

I've just finished "Hot Commodities" by Jim Rogers. In spite of the name, I found it enjoyable reading and informative, especially as Rogers' long range outlooks are just that...long term....and based on supply and demand issues (fundamentals) as are my own. He mentions only a few specific commodities, but both gold and oil are among them.

If you happen to read this book, I'd be most interested in your opinions of the accuracy of the facts, numbers given and of the impartiality of information presented in the chapter concerning oil. Basically, Rogers argues that supply is limited and that demand has (or very shortly will) exceed this supply without apparent new sources available for timely delivery into the deficit. Demand he says, citing Asia's growing needs, will increase.

Are you still working (on the road) with any mining concerns? Do you ever hear any scuttlebutt about silver? As for any verifiable silver supply/demand information that's come my way of late....well..if it were food, I would have starved long ago.

Gandalf the White<;-) ROFL --- It's time for me to go to BED !#1293252/14/05; 18:58:37


R PowellOverbought#1293262/14/05; 19:18:33

This piece is from Black Blades recent post...

"But Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends in Commodities, said the rally's showing signs of being overdone, noting that the silver contract rose by more than 11 percent in the final three Nymex sessions last week and that it's "reached a more overbought condition than gold."

When prices rise it is usually the result of more buying pressure than selling although the total number of "bought" contracts is always equal to the total number of "sold" or short ones. In this sense, how can anything traded in such a system ever be "overbought"?

Perhaps what Mr. Doelling refers to here is that the speculative class of investors now has more long positions than short OR is net long a greater percentage of the total open interest, than in the recent past. I remember seeing silver in this "overbought" condition after she ran up in price from $4.01 to about $5.80. And she stayed "overbought" from roughly that 580 level all the way up to about half way between $8.00 and $9.00..!! After that, well the bubble burst. Leonard Kaplan was one analyst who warned, correctly as hindsight has proven, that silver was not reacting to any supply/demand issues but was the object of a silverbug mania. (How many silverbugs buying at the same time does it take to make a "mania"?) I wonder, when there really is a shortage of immediately deliverable silver necessary for industrial uses, will there be any way to distinguish that demand driven need from another speculative mania?? I'd guess that in either case, we'll hear about "overbought" conditions for a good long time. Gold was called "oversold" just about a week ago, about the time the Towncrier posted his chart...hummm?

Black Blade@R. Powell#1293272/14/05; 19:43:37

Jim Rogers said essentially the same on Neil Cavuto the other day. Though he tends to shy away from Gold he did tentatively concede something to that effect. He is also positive on energy (inclusive of oil) and of course other commodities such as Sugar. Sweet eh? ;-)

- Black Blade

TownCrierAn investment tale of the over- and under- boughts#1293282/14/05; 20:36:25

Goldilox was skipping through the woods one day when she came upon a tiny village. At the outskirts of the village was a little shop. Playing tag in the front yard were little Red Riding Hood, her older brother Robin (Hood), his crime-fighting partner Batman, also Beowulf, Grendel, Gretel, Hansel, and Derek Zoolander.

Ignoring all that, Goldilox walked into the shop. It was an investment firm, the very best in the whole land, and it was run by three bears.

Toward the back of the room in a display counter there were three coins.

The first coin was too overbought.

The second coin was too oversold.

(Eh? Well, you see, those two coins were glued down, and anyone could sell the second coin to raise funds to buy the first coin, but you couldn't leave the shop with either one, but the bears had great fun with the shtick, don't ask me why.)

The third coin was gold, and it wasn't glued to anything, so naturally, it was just right. In fact, it was brokered through USAGOLD-Centennial, so its price was always exactly just right.

And then a wolf arrived at the door, huffing and puffing. He'd been playing tag out front with the others, and asked for a glass of water and a chair to sit in to catch his breath. He had his eye on the free gold coin as Goldilox entertained herself putting it in and out of her handbag. Apparently the concept of a gold coin that wasn't glued down was relatively new to the land, and pretty soon a great crowd gathered 'round in witness to the novel idea.

It was Wednesday at tea time, and suddenly a woodsman of unknown profession burst into the group with a skip and a jump which the narrator mistook for a limp, getting promptly corrected. In tune.

"I'm a lumberjack, and I'm okay..."

And just then a giant cartoon foot came out of the sky, squishing the whole scene flat. Meanwhile, back in the control booth a technician slide the faders to a swelling sound of "The Liberty Bell March".

And now for something completely different.


RimhROFL!!!!!!#1293292/14/05; 22:15:13

Hillarious, TC!!! Made my day!
GoldiloxCuster-Battles#1293302/14/05; 22:28:29

CSPAn is airing the Senate hearings on the Custer-Battles "whistleblower" suit right now. This is a suit against the company accused of bilking the Iraqi CPA of many millions of US$ earmarked for "reconstruction".

We're talking tens and perhaps hundreds of millions here, and the fingers of support lead back to the White House.

Not a good picture of US stewardship in "liberated" Iraq.

YGMAnd now for something completely different.#1293312/14/05; 23:00:50

Wit and humor TC..i'm sure that was the best Grimm Tale yet...(Many Smiles)
Mr GreshamTC, Ten Bears, Caradoc#1293322/15/05; 01:19:46

Ten Bears -- it is good to see you here.

Caradoc -- it was Cato, not Cicero; and a good reminder he is of the weighty effect of a persistent propaganda pounding. Good thing there was no Senator Cato pushing us to "resolve" our disputes with the Soviet Union in that way.

TC -- you surpass yourself, sir. Interesting new perspective, on the derivative gold as "nailed down" in the shop, as most think of paper gold as more liquid than the physical. But it is, ultimately, unremovable from the shop. And the wolf, well, is always at the door...

TownCrierMr. Gresham#1293332/15/05; 01:43:39

Thanks for offering "nailed down".

I'd wanted to convey an essence of "fixation" (London fix, the "fix is in", etc.) but was left ultimately grasping unsatisfied for a narritive solution. I arrived at glue almost certainly influenced by my weekend restoration project in which some artwork was delaminating and in need of repair. Glue to the rescue... in one project too many. As you've shown the way, were I to get another shot at the telling, use of Captain Ahab's doubloon-fixing nailgun would definitely be called for in the encumbering of those two coins.


BelgianQuestion : Ten Bears-all#1293342/15/05; 01:50:33

Fekete/Hathaway :
- Value of the unit of exchange...
- Objective unit of account...
- Objective unit of value...

My question is : Under WHAT gold-regime do we get such a "unit" ? TIA

Mr GreshamTC, I see#1293352/15/05; 03:07:20,1299,DRMN_21_3478861,00.html

Blame it on the glue, sir, if you wish; but you grow more lyrical with the passing years. I'm glad we get to see and enjoy it here.

Ahab is a good character to raise before us ("Its wood could only be American!") in this age of obsessive Bushes and Greenspans, with madness in all its forms tuned to a "T".

Reminding us that, when the ship goes down, all goes with it. (I was just reading my daughter some letters from a whaling family in our past; father and son both died at sea, 30 years apart.)

Only that which can float free from the wreckage can be employed to build ashore, or finance a new ship.

Of course, my dear TC, you're probably better off sticking to the glue. People in your altitudinal locale seem to be having heady problems with their aim (and their nerves transmitting pain signals) lately.

""I had a bad headache," said Lawler, 23, of Breckenridge, at Littleton Adventist Hospital, as he described the six days he walked around unaware he had a nail in his head."

ArcticfoxFeb4. jobs report#1293362/15/05; 06:28:23

That jobs report was no reason to celebrate

The disappointing jobs report on Feb. 4 was not a reason for the stock market to cheer. But cheer it did. Think of this economy as an airplane -- one that's losing altitude

968ECB's weekly financial statement.#1293372/15/05; 07:09:31

Gold and gold recievables : minus 57 million euros due to the selling of gold by two Eurosystem Central Banks (new position 125,420 million euros).

The net foreign currency position remained virtually unchanged at 154,9 billion euros.

The ECB's net foreign currency position (paper) exceeds their gold position by only 23,5%.

Goldendome@Belgian -- Your question on unit of account and measure.#1293382/15/05; 07:17:27

A common thread through much of Fekete's material that I have read (and I Do recommend it) is the coming of a new Gold Standard when fiat paper collapses.
DruidBelgian (2/15/05; 01:50:33MT - msg#: 129334)#1293392/15/05; 08:15:47

Druid: Beglian, you beat me to the punch line. Fekete/Hathaway described quite eloquently the erosion of two of the three basic components of what constitutes "money", with the third component being that of a "medium of exchange". The exchange rate mechanism and China seeking to unload dollars would suggest that the medium of exchange component of the dollar is being eviscerated in real time as we watch from our "good view".

A Freegold regime will restore the components of what money should be with a heavy weighting toward "store of value". The paper instruments do a decent job as units of account and medium of exchange but fail the test of time and discipline as a store of wealth.

Gandalf the WhiteLOOK LOOK ! The "YOYO" is back !#1293402/15/05; 09:40:38

US$ Charting technologies revisited.
The ESF is having trouble with the PUMP Method !
YOYO time !!

GoldiloxMore SSI Silliness#1293412/15/05; 10:05:09

CNBC is hosting another panel (groan) presenting "competing" ideas on reforming SSI. Amazingly, not one has suggested halting the flow of SSI $ into non-SSI expenditures, a simple, but politically incorrect alternative. Everyone wants to spend more to save a system that is being stressed only by spending $150B per year of the money on non-SSI expenditures.

Too bad the "trust fund" is a fiction of debt, with the assets already spent elsewhere.

Oh what webs we weave!

Survivor@ Gandolf#1293422/15/05; 10:06:07

. . . And, not not surprisingly, gold shows an almost perfect inverse over the same time period :)

- Survivor

TownCrierFor Druid, on Fekete and the overburdening "three components" of money#1293432/15/05; 10:54:47

A while ago miner49er offered a comprehensive explanation of the function of money in society. In conclusion one wonders how any economist worth his salt can cling steadfastedly to the old notions that money needs be 1) a unit of account, AND 2) a medium of exchange, AND 3) a store of value.

Those demands are as unnecessary as asking a particular vehicle to be a car, and a boat, and a spaceship. In the age of specialization we have different tools for different jobs, and the job of the money tool is... (see url to find out).

The gold tool has a job, too, which is also to be found nicely explained at the the url.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Click or call -- 1-800-869-5115#1293442/15/05; 10:56:45">gold 20 franc coins
Great Albino BatDruid: I take exception to your statement that:#1293452/15/05; 10:58:27

"The paper instruments do a decent job as units of account and medium of exchange...."

In the USA, you have still not seen the effects of monetary inflation upon paper money as "units of account". But you will!

When monetary inflation finally hits prices noticeably, as it undoubtedly will sooner or later - prices of goods to the consumer as well as goods and physical assets on the books of companies - then you will see that the paper money is a total nuisance when it comes to drawing up financial statements.

And not only a nuisance, but the use of paper money to draw up financial statements produces data that is fundamentally flawed and easily leads to erroneous entreprenuerial decisions which result in disastrous losses.

The accountants will be called upon to RESTATE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS - using methods that are theoretically flawed but agreed upon "pragmatically" using absurd rules to carry out their "restatements" to "eliminate" the distortion of the inflation in the monetary system - something that CANNOT be validly done. But, you will not find anyone arguing with the CPAs, because everyone is totally in the dark on this matter. The Financial Statements will be adjusted with outlandish results.

For one thing, you will find that your CPA will report to the IRS, that your company has "made a profit" upon its debts, because the "adjusted value of the debt" has shrunk. So, you owe the same dollars or more, but you made a "profit" because the "inflation adjusted" value of your debt WENT DOWN.

You also made a "profit", because the value of your inventory went up while you held it. Also, the value of your real estate assets will show a "profit".

And those "profits" will be taxable!

And so on and so forth.

Paper money as a unit of account SUCKS. No other word for it.

I can tell you this, with apodictic certainty. And few things can be affirmed so surely.


Gandalf the WhiteTHANKS, Sir GAB !!!#1293462/15/05; 11:31:17

I needed to hear that !

RimhBackwards headline#1293472/15/05; 11:36:06

"UPDATE 1-Gold under dollar-led pressure in Europe"
I suspect the reality is the opposite, namely:
Dollar under Gold-led pressure.....

I presume it's the conflict of these two views that is causing your YO-YO, Gandalf! Thanks for the charts, as always! (And your efforts in the contest are much appreciated) :-)

GoldiloxPaper accounting#1293482/15/05; 11:44:41


Three cheers!

I wonder how many gold holders will rejoice in the paper accounting of their "profits" when the day of financial reckoning comes. Paying "windfall profit taxes" on pure dollar devaluation just plain sucks!

Also, gold bullion is taxed differently than "long term equities". I'm not a tax accountant, so maybe someone who is can clarify.

Gandalf the WhiteSir Slowrunner RETAINS the "KING of the HILL" !!!#1293492/15/05; 12:23:40

Gold COMEX Apr '05 Contract GCJ05
Open = $426.8 HIGH = $428.7 low = $425.0
SETTLEMENT = $427.3 CHANGE = $0.0 !!!!

The "King of the HILL" is (AGAIN)----

HOWEVER, ALSO for the second day in a row -- 22 (TWENTY-TWO) POG CONTEST ENTRIES, at some time today were "KING of the HILL"
$$$$ $428.7 $$$$ goldquest
$$$$ $428.5 $$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG
$$$$ $428.3 $$$$ GoldCoaster
$$$$ $428.0 $$$$ Clink!
$$$$ $427.9 $$$$ timbervision
$$$$ $427.7 $$$$ Jing Zu
$$$$ $427.6 $$$$ R Powell
$$$$ $427.4 $$$$ Tranquility Base
$$$$ $427.3 $$$$ slowrunner
$$$$ $427.2 $$$$ Buongiorno!
$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Black Blade
$$$$ $426.9 $$$$ Yellow Jacket
$$$$ $426.8 $$$$ The Hoople
$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck
$$$$ $426.3 $$$$ commish
$$$$ $426.2 $$$$ Survivor
$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz
$$$$ $425.8 $$$$ seagull
$$$$ $425.6 $$$$ Felix the Cat
$$$$ $425.3 $$$$ Toolie
$$$$ $425.2 $$$$ NTgeo
$$$$ $425.0 $$$$ John the Jute
Hang in there, Sir Slowrunner !

TownCrierZimbabwe and IMF#1293502/15/05; 12:52:16

WASHINGTON, Feb 15 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund's shareholder governments are expected to delay Zimbabwe's expulsion from the global lender on Wednesday to keep pressure on President Robert Mugabe, facing reelection in March.

Zimbabwe ... was given notice last year that it faced expulsion unless it increased repayments to the fund and improved economic policies.

...economic crisis, triggered in 2000 by Mugabe's controversial land reform policy that saw white-owned farms seized to resettle landless blacks.

In past IMF meetings, shareholders have been divided on how to deal with Zimbabwe, amid Mugabe's land reform policy and concerns about human rights and lack of rule of law.

Zimbabwe's inflation has fallen sharply to 133 percent from over 600 percent, while the central bank has managed to suppress a thriving illegal market in foreign currency and tighten bank supervision...

"We take full responsibility for our arrears which we will clear as foreign currency availability improves," said Finance Minister Herbert Murerwa. "But there has been pressure on the Fund from some quarters to expel Zimbabwe without any basis."

^------(from url)----^

Not mentioned in this article, but surely of equal interest given the nature of this squabble, is that the monetary officials in Zimbabwe have as a matter of policy for several years now been paying its gold miners for new gold at a rate considerably higher than prevailing market value.

On top of everything else, you wouldn't think that would have anything to do with compounding the IMF's general level of angst toward Zimbabwe, would you? Naaaaaaaaaw.


Druid@TC, GAB#1293512/15/05; 13:12:33

Druid: TC, thanks for the head's up on muy use of what, at first glance reading over Miner's body of work, appears to be some very antiquated notions defining what "money" is and isn't. Will read every word of miner's work with highlighter in hand. Back to school for the Druid.

@GAB, your exception and critique are duly noted. I can't argue with your well stated reply, other then, to go into more detail on what I meant. Will do so later on tonight. Glad to have brought you out from your cave.

Federal_ReservesRumors flying about a US attack on Syria.#1293522/15/05; 14:13:18

"A wide range of new options, from additional financial sanctions to authorizing military "hot pursuit" operations across Iraq's border with Syria, have been under discussion, officials have said."
TownCrierDruid#1293532/15/05; 14:14:31

The thing to be on the lookout for is any occurance where, through mere adoption of old wisdoms ("the earth is flat"), we might tend to suspend our own faculties of assessment and better judgement of the evidence at hand. In this case, it seems that poor "money" has fancifully been saddled with a whole roster of functions -- an overburden of tasks, the successful performance of which are mutually exclusive as a sustainable concern. So where our longfathers have handed down free membership to the Flat-Earth Society, we owe it to ourselves to have a fair look with unjaded eye before giving over to doctrine of thought that seems to have the ancient ring of currency but quite likely lacks more legitimate real-world backing.

To cut to the chase, the principal flaw has always been the notion that money is something that ought to be held or saved over a mid- to long- term, thus giving rise to demands by its taskmasters that it ought to provide the functionality of "store of value" among its other duties. Historical experience shows that to be an incompatible goal in light of our contract-driven structure of political economy. Money has shown that its function is for use in tracking accounts and obligations and near-perfect liquidity in serving our end goals of commerce -- which can be oversimplified as the acquistion and accummulation of various property (and service) for the betterment of our future well-being.

This is where gold must step into the breach. As one of the tangible properties that can be gotten with use of the money system, with its scarcity and physical integrity over time, gold is the best at preserving the liquidity and instantaneous value which is demonstrated at the moment of the transaction in which notional money is exchanged for solid savings.

I like to point to miner49er's work because he provides a supreme CLARITY of presentation that I have yet to find equalled by any other source. Enjoy.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1293542/15/05; 15:35:24">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Tuesday Market Excerpts

U.S. gold futures settled flat on Tuesday in choppy, currency-based activity as the market was reluctant to make bold moves before two days of testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, dealers said.

"A wild day today," said Leonard Kaplan, president at Prospector Asset Management, who cited gyrations in the currencies as the dominant feature in the session. "Everyone in the market is waiting for Alan (Greenspan) to talk tomorrow," he added.

COMEX benchmark April gold finished steady at $427.30, after trading between $425 and $428.70 -- its highest mark since Jan. 31.

Profit taking and a whippy dollar combined to cap a broad-based, 3-day rally in the precious metals after prices last week bounced from oversold levels, floor traders said.

Market participants also opted not to take on big positions in the dollar-sensitive metals, as Greenspan was preparing to speak before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. "I think what he's going to talk about is the Fed will continue to raise rates," said Kaplan. "If he does, then the dollar gets supported and gold goes lower."

A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated precious metals more expensive for traders holding foreign money.

Technically, gold needed to break above significant resistance between $428 and $430, Kaplan added. "If it gets over $430, we could run a bit, but we'll have to see."

On the economic side of the ledger, net inflows of capital into U.S. assets in December slid to $61.3 billion -- near expectations and enough to finance the nation's current account deficit that month.

---(see url for 24-hr headlines, market prices)----

TownCrierIndia, Italy eye 5 bn euro trade in 2 yrs#1293552/15/05; 15:44:50

NEW DELHI: Italy and India said on Tuesday they would nearly double mutual trade to 5 bn euro in two years, by increasing the sectors they trade bilaterally...

India could absorb investments of around $150 bn in evolving sectors like infrastructure and energy. He said the growth rate of business between India and Italy can go up from the present 10 pc to 20 pc or more. The two countries signed a host of Memorandums of Understanding to announce growth in their mutual engagement...

^-----(from url)-----^

It does not seem likely that this directly portends a growth of the dollar's market share of international usage.

If slipping in transactional usage, how much longer will it retain the privilege of reserve asset status?

Diversify into gold as mitigation against the crossover.


Au-somemsg.#129345#1293562/15/05; 15:49:32

Alright GAB, you flushed me out of cover. "Apodictic certainty"? You had me running for the Webster's Unabridged. But isn't "apodictic certainty" redundant? Perhaps apodictically. Anyway, no matter. I agree with you that paper money as a unit of account SUX.
While I'm here I might as well comment on two questions posed here in the past:
1. When to Sell gold.
2. How to survive an economic meltdown.
First, when the dow/gold ratio approaches 1:1 you could exchange PM's for high dividend yeiding stocks. Am compiling a list now. Leaning towards utilities and other "widow/orphan", conservative choices.
Second, I look to the past to see the future. During the Great Depression farmers had everything but money. After the real devastation of WWII starving German city dwellers traveled to the countryside to barter for eggs and potatoes. Just read that in "The Commanding Heights" by Yergin and Stanislaw. Also recommend "Confessions of an Economic Hitman" by Perkins. So, I'm not a survivor, I'm a farmer - kinda. This is our third winter in the woods. We've been lumberjacking and sod busting. No, I haven't quit my real job. But my second job is turning raw land into producing real estate. Have planted fruit trees and built pens and fencing, yadda, yadda. Chickens for eggs and meat, goats for milk and cheese, sheep for meat, a large garden - it's a hobby farm at this point. Why stockpile food when you can produce it? We are gaining entry into the local network of country mice. It's a new world for city mice like us.
And finally, how about a haiku? It has the word silver in it so it qualifies. It combines my attraction to shiny things with a recreational pursuit.

hunter's silver moon
blood trails track black in the snow
howls strike the backtrail

TownCrierAu-some, a few thoughts#1293572/15/05; 17:00:34

You didn't specify degrees of gold selling or of self sufficiency, so please bear with me if my questions are off base, reflecting a difference between my interpretations and your intentions.

I'm wondering about the compatibility between your approach to handling the two listed items, questions #1 and #2.

Regarding #1, when to sell gold, do you mean this to be an opportunistic trimming of some portion of the gold fraction of your portfolio to pick up attractive corporate shares, or do you mean it to be a wholesale liquidation out of the gold position at such time that you deem it to have served its purpose and exhausted its welcome as a diversifying portfolio component?

It is in the event where you intend a wholesale switch out of gold and into equities that I would contemplate the apparent contradiction of this action with the rationale you've presented in your cautious yet entirely responsible solution to issue #2.

It is summarized in your comment: "Why stockpile food when you can produce it?"

This implies a degree of self-sufficiency that you can comfortably rely upon in any times of uncertainty and crisis.

Wouldn't you agree that maintaining a core position of gold on hand (which is accessible wealth and not a mere promise) is akin to the degree of self-sufficiency you have in the form of your farm-fresh eggs, milk, meat, and crops?

However, in any such investment plan that sees you liquidate your gold for stocks, you are effectively setting aside your responsible motto as quoted above for the following variant creedo:

"Why produce your food when you can buy it?"

By giving up the immediate tap-ability of wealth through gold-on-hand for the less tangible form of corporate share ownership, you've effectively sold your farm in exchange for coupons to a grocery store.

Due to this seeming dissonance in your approach to #'s 1 and 2 as written, can I assume that your plan with regard to item #1 is to shift only a portion of gold into stocks as might seem attractive, and that in the same spirit of keeping your farm, you would also be keeping a goodly portion of your gold holdings as a form of "self-sufficient wealth" against the ever-present uncertainty of paper failures and defaults?

Thanks for sharing.


Au-someTo what degree?#1293592/15/05; 17:44:43

Hi TC,

I didn't mean to suggest an either/or scenario - in anything. All or nothing seems a bit rash. Everyone must decide for themselves how much to buy or sell, to hold or let go. Everything is a matter of degree. I don't like to be too specific because I'm more comfortable holding my cards close to the vest. If I were holding four aces I still wouldn't put it all in the pot - the other fellow might not play by the rules and pull a gun, scoop up the pot and run! (Think Roosevelt here). I'd still have a C-note in my sock so I could get a cab home. Hope that helps.


Black BladeGreenspan to Admonish Congress, Not Consumers, on Need to Save #1293602/15/05; 17:51:54


Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will face questions from Congress this week on the record budget and trade deficits, and Social Security. Chances are there will be less talk about the common issue behind each of those problems: the need to boost U.S. savings. At the same time, the Fed's recession-fighting low-interest- rate policies helped drive down household savings in 2004 to the lowest level since the Great Depression, analysts say.

``Equity extraction has been the pixie dust of America's post-bubble recovery,'' Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley in New York, wrote in a Feb. 7 note to clients. ``By warmly embracing asset appreciation and the debt binge it fostered, the central bank has encouraged consumers to all but abandon traditional income-based saving strategies.'' Some Fed officials are beginning to signal concern. ``I don't believe house prices are going to continue to rise at the same pace over the next five years,'' Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Fed bank, said in an interview Feb. 11. ``To keep wealth rising over time, if that's what households want, people are going to have to do more of the hard work of spending less, saving more.''

Black Blade: "Pixie dust" or Gold? I think that's a "no-brainer".

Black BladeEconomy's Growing, but Where Are the New Jobs?#1293612/15/05; 17:59:37,1,5872882.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true


Firms are expanding without hiring. Some analysts wonder if this change is permanent. The U.S. economy grew at a brisk 4.4% clip last year, but it was not until last month that the number of jobs recovered to the levels of early 2001. The Labor Department pegs the unemployment rate at 5.2%, the lowest in four years, but the share of people who have stopped hunting for work is the largest it has been since 1988. Today's job growth is more than twice as slow as it was after the 1990-91 recession, and slower than during any recovery since World War II, analysts say.

The discrepancy is fueling a growing debate about whether such low employment growth is a harbinger of a world in which businesses can rake in increasing profits without much of it trickling down to workers. Instead of aggressively adding workers, corporations have been buying labor-saving equipment, banking cash, distributing record dividends, buying back stock or undertaking ambitious mergers that often lead to job losses.

Black Blade: Still a fairly large "Bone Pile". Remember that many have "given up" looking for work, and many more are simply no longer counted as the benefits have run out. Always be prepared for the speed bumps in life. Of course - get outta debt and stay outta debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months' household expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver "portfolio insurance", and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. Just for times like described above.

John the JutePaper Accounting @ Goldilox#1293622/15/05; 18:10:01

You wrote: 'I wonder how many gold holders will rejoice in the paper accounting of their "profits" when the day of financial reckoning comes.'

I'm not a tax accountant either, but I was pleased to discover that, in the UK, the Revenue classifies gold sovereigns (and gold & silver Britannia coins) as money: any profit I may seem to make when selling sovereigns is not taxable and does not even need to be reported.

A sovereign would have no special status in the US, of course: it's just one sort of pre-1933 gold coin. But doesn't the US have a similar exemption for its own gold and silver coins?

GoldiloxCoin tax#1293632/15/05; 19:07:07

@ John the Jute

Don't think so. I think bullion coins are taxed as "collectibles" in the US, which means they don't even fall into Dubya's new lower long-term capital gains rate (as do equities and RE).

Still waiting for a more official ruling on this - did I mention that I am NOT expert in this area?

Goldilox"Need to Save"#1293642/15/05; 19:16:27

Right Jon,

Congress is really going to "get it" when Sir GS talks about the "need to save more . . ."


But at least a few will send some more DoughRayMe to their off-shore trusts . . . and be sure to denominate the accounts in non-US$ currencies.



GoldendomeR. Powell's posting of the Hathaway article#1293652/15/05; 19:56:56

Yesterday evening, Sir R. Powell, posted a light bulb article here on our good site. I doubt that many of you read it though, because you go to the link posted, and is a pretty long article. But I read it! And glad that I did! For me, with more limited understanding than others, it helps get arms around the idea of the U.S. fiat central bank as a socialist central planning vehicle. I'm going to post here a section of the article that *I* found to be of particular interest.
From the Hathaway article:

"....Still, for most politicians, the lesson learned from the 1930's depression was that an expanded government role could modify market outcomes to benefit society.
It is in the context of social engineering that the removal of gold from its historical role as the official basis for money, the substitution of fiat money as the foundation for the international credit system, and the consequent mispricing of gold must be understood. Thirteen years after President F.D. Roosevelt suspended private transactions in gold, the Chairman of the New York Federal Reserve penned an article for American Affairs titled "Taxes for Revenue Are Obsolete." Beardsley Ruml, advocating the elimination of the corporate income tax, observed:

"The necessity for a government to tax in order to maintain both its independence and its solvency is true for state and local governments, but it is not true for a national government. Two changes….have substantially altered the position of the national state with respect to the financing of its current requirements.

The first of these changes is the gaining of vast new experience in the management of central banks. The second change is the elimination, for domestic purposes, of the convertibility of the currency into gold." (American Affairs, Jan. 1946)

In these few sentences, Mr. Bruml anticipates the 60-year transformation of the Federal Reserve from a traditional central bank into a central planning agency. Bruml, as did many other post war leaders, mapped out an intellectual framework for interventionist economic policies designed to eliminate the pain of bad economic outcomes while presumably allowing for open-ended upside. From that point on, the only thing that has changed is the evolution and perfection of technique. Ruml could never have imagined the gyrations by which the future Fed would slay any and all dragons threatening financial stability. Writing gold out of the monetary script, foreshadowed in these remarks, was the magic formula by which the levers of credit would be transferred from the markets to the politicians.

The US dollar, freed from the constraint of gold backing in 1971, became a pliable foundation for international credit. It rose geometrically in quantity to become the essential fuel of global economic growth. Owing to *surfeit, it is on the brink of global distrust...."


*surfeit -- an over abundance and/or over use of something.

LeSinWAR FOR RESOURCES#1293662/15/05; 21:26:48

Some old news and perspective on a growing reality.

Cheers "S"

TownCrierGoldendome, on Hathaway#1293672/15/05; 21:47:01

If put to it I would have to confess several points at odds with Hathaway (and even more at odds with Fekete who was mentioned recently) but nevertheless I do appreciate Hathaway for being one of the best out there and for his giving voice to the following:

"The lapse of time during which a given event has not happened is, in this logic of habit, constantly alleged as a reason why the event should never happen, even when the lapse of time is precisely the added condition which makes the event imminent." [quoted G.Eliot] --- We conclude with ardent conviction, the more so for our isolation, that the dollar's role as the global reserve currency has run its course.

The transition to a new basis for international credit will be lengthy and difficult. The repercussions of a transition are not reflected in the financial markets.

For this reason, gold is inadequately priced. The best strategy, under these circumstances, is to own as much as possible of what so few have in their possession, physical gold.

While gold mining shares will perform well along the way (and should certainly be owned), they are much easier to manufacture than the metal is to extract. The same is true for derivatives, or paper gold.



Ten BearsMr. Gresham , Sir Belgian (129332and129334)#1293682/15/05; 23:27:35

Thanks Mr. G.

Belgian, an excellent question, which will require some time to respond appropriately.

TownCrierDoes anyone else see this as a conceptual misstep by Hathaway and many others?#1293692/16/05; 02:40:17

"It is in the context of social engineering that the removal of gold from its historical role as the official basis for money, the substitution of fiat money as the foundation for the international credit system, and the consequent mispricing of gold must be understood. ........ Writing gold out of the monetary script was the magic formula by which the levers of credit would be transferred from the markets to the politicians. The US dollar, freed from the constraint of gold backing in 1971, became a pliable foundation for international credit."

It becomes somewhat clearer if we reverse the order of his presentation.

"The US dollar,
freed from the constraint of gold backing in 1971,
became a pliable foundation for international credit."

The rightful implication in that statement is that gold served merely as a sort of breaking mechanism within the larger context of the monetary system -- a system built largely upon credit. If it isn't clear from that statement alone, the next one offers sufficient reinforcement.

"Writing gold out of the monetary script
was the magic formula by which
the levers of credit
would be transferred
from the markets to the politicians."

The "levers of credit", thus freed from the residual breaking effect of gold convertibility, is basically rendered wholly over to the breaking discretion of government instead. (To be sure, the breaking effect of the pretense of gold convertibility within the banking system -- as determined by the depositors' threat or exercise of the run -- was greatly diminished when unstructured free and independent banking evolved to full organization under a central bank.) We can see, as Hathaway suggests, money supply remains fundamentally an element of aggregate credit(debt), but is thus simply able to run with less palsy by suspending the ever-false pretense of (full)convertibility.

Finally we come to the inconsistency in structure and association:

"It is in the context of social engineering
that the removal of gold
from its historical role
as the official basis for money,
the substitution of fiat money as the foundation for the international credit system,
and the consequent mispricing of gold must be understood."

This matter of 'money', having been so well established or stipulated as being principally a phenomenon of credit, now seems a very odd thing to be said in one breath as having its "official basis" in gold, and in the next breath to be reminded of the credit element along with a very bizarre reference to "fiat money".

From a technical standpoint, "fiat money" is a fiction. Is it possible that Hathaway meant to say "fiat currency"?

Money, as it has come to pass, is a phenomenon in the domain of the banking system. It is neither fiat, nor is it non-fiat. It is a highly structured system of nominal credits and obligations originating as bilateral contracts that become "trilateralized" as uniform standardized nominal assets (monetary units of purchasing power) among third parties.

The term "fiat" only properly enters the dialogue when talking specifically about the monetary system's form of representational currency that circulates in physical form outside of the banking system's bookkeeping clearing network.

For long years this currency was put forth in the form of precious metal coinage such that the manifestation of full value embodied in the coin would negate concerns of counterfeit currency emissions. This truth regarding monetary value existing independent of metal value is revealed in historical experience as gold flows between neighboring countries often occurred not as a result of trade flows but rather as arbitrage opportunities present from monetary over- or under-valuations of the metallic currency component between the countries.

As a quibble it could probably be successfully argued that the metallic specifications of that era's monetary currency was established by fiat, but more conventionally the term "fiat" is used in conjunction with the form of currency that possesses no inherent value (other than a complicated printing design to discourage counterfeiting). The paper currency put forth for circulation, valid and "as good as money", by decree, that is, by government fiat(declaration). To reiterate, the underlying money has never been a result of fiat (because it is a creation of the market), however, the portion of it represented as pocketable currency has become, almost invariably, ultimately structured by government fiat as a sort of public service.

Perceived in this context, the removal of gold from the makeup of the representational currency had less to do with social engineering and more to do with acknowledging the underlying reality of the monetary and banking system. The notion of a "convertible currency" (such as gold) is at once an unfortunate misrepresentation due to the credit basis of our money as discussed above and which furthermore can be immediately seen in the fractional reserve nature of our banking system.

If one is to talk about "social engineering" in the context of gold, it must be done not in reference to removal of gold from the monetary system, but rather in reference to any official efforts to keep gold IN (and its value subsequently obscured by) a fractional, paper-dominated system such as still exists through government blessings upon barbarous bullion banking and derivative operations in this enlightened day and age.

To be sure, it is in THAT context that the mispricing of gold should be understood.

And obviously, for all who understand the nature of the device and resulting opportunity, gold should be accumulated as much as possible while these circumstances prevail.


BelgianTC :#1293702/16/05; 05:37:46

...*OFFICIAL* efforts, to keep gold *IN* the *MONETARY SYSTEM* and its *VALUE* subsequently *OBSCURED* by a fractional, paper-dominated, system...

Translation : Wim Duisenberg, an official, stated that gold always will remain a monetary asset. He meant the EMU of course and already had Another INTERNATIONAL MONETARY SYSTEM in mind.
With the WAG, he clearly signaled that there must and shall come an end to the "obscurantization" of the "value" of gold !

Any modern variety of a "gold-standard" will go on obscuring gold's real value and falsify once again, any "objective unit of account", associated with it. How can an imposed, arbitrary "standard" (fixed gold) possibly remain "objective" ? *GOLD* is the standard.

It is useless to maneuver gold (theoretically) at the "defense" of the dollar's reserve status. The dollar's status already lost its competition with gold, through obscurely "mispricing" gold's value.

Thanks TC.

BelgianUnknown aircraft fires missile on Iran !?#1293712/16/05; 06:58:50

Dow futures, POO, €/$ do react substantionally.
Dollar Bill.,.#1293722/16/05; 07:09:24

TC, didnt that actually happen in the forties and the dollar came off gold publically only when France forced the issue?
He says social engineering, i would guess that it was not social engineering that was the primary motive that moved them, but the threat posed by communist russia.
I would guess the europeans could have done without the Marshall plan, or rather, would have chosen to do without it rather than give the US the reserve currency powers to have deficiets. The threat of Russia put them between a rock and a hard place, and America got the ok to play reserve currency.
Maybe DeGaulle didnt =get it== till late 50's or early sixties, but surely someone representing France knew what it meant when the agreement was reached in the forties.

I know I am focusing on a dif part of Hathaways comments,
Hathaway and his buddies began to annoy me with thier --dont you get it-- style of writing. Maybe they have changed.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A risk-free request, helping you enter the gold market with grace and confidence.#1293732/16/05; 11:00:14">Get a head start on the gold market!
GoldiloxGreenSpam effect#1293742/16/05; 11:19:47

CNBC just reported that Greenspan's testimony had little effect on markets today, aside from a slight blip and correction in the DX.

GS said that market perceptions of any SSI reform would be very important.

The "talking heads" followed that with the observation that the SM is showing little momentum at a time when it is about 50 points from a three year high.

All interesting observations, but seriously avoiding any attempt at conclusions.

GoldiloxGlobal climate change pictorial#1293752/16/05; 11:58:10

I apologize for being so far off topic, but there is a pictorial essay of climate change examples on the BBC website this morning - mostly glacial and coastal areas.

For your perusal, if interested.

Federal_Reserves39 stocks in the SnP account for 40% of the profits#1293762/16/05; 11:58:54

And those stocks are energy related.
Gandalf the WhiteTA TA TAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA -- WE have WINNERS !!#1293772/16/05; 12:32:19

Gold COMEX Apr '05 Contract (GCJ05) for Wednesday 2/16/05
Open = $426.0 HIGH = $427.1 low = $423.4
SETTLEMENT = $426.9 and Change -$0.4

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ WINNERS in the "PRICE of GOLD" GUESSING CONTEST!! $$$$$$$$$$$$

$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Black Blade (02/13/05; 18:50:49MT - msg#: 129259)
$$$$ $426.9 $$$$ Yellow Jacket (02/13/05; 20:11:33MT - msg#: 129261)
$$$$ $426.8 $$$$ The Hoople (2/10/05; 07:55:24MT - msg#: 129093

The "Price of Gold" (POG) Contest winner, Sir Yellow Jacket, will receive a nineteenth Century 20 Lira Italian Umberto I coin, (which may be seen at the following LINK).

Two runners-up prizes for the next closest prognostications:
Sirs Black Blade and The Hoople --- each win an one ounce U.S. Silver Eagle.


Note: Will the three WINNERS please contact Marie VIA Email at: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. and give her your REAL name, Forum HANDLE and snailmail ADDRESS for which to post the PRIZES to you. THANKS <;-)

The following NINETEEN (19) Entries were at one time today "ATOP the HILL" !

$$$$ $427.0 $$$$ Black Blade (02/13/05; 18:50:49MT - msg#: 129259)
$$$$ $426.9 $$$$ Yellow Jacket (02/13/05; 20:11:33MT - msg#: 129261)
$$$$ $426.8 $$$$ The Hoople (2/10/05; 07:55:24MT - msg#: 129093)
$$$$ $426.5 $$$$ Sundeck (02/04/05; 17:10:03MT - msg#: 128888)
$$$$ $426.3 $$$$ commish (2/12/05; 22:47:01MT - msg#: 129231)
$$$$ $426.2 $$$$ Survivor (2/13/05; 16:05:11MT - msg#: 129252)
$$$$ $426.0 $$$$ Topaz (02/04/05; 16:52:40MT - msg#: 128886)
$$$$ $425.8 $$$$ seagull (2/13/05; 05:15:42MT - msg#: 129235)
$$$$ $425.6 $$$$ Felix the Cat (2/12/05; 05:58:07MT - msg#: 129203)
$$$$ $425.3 $$$$ Toolie (2/12/05; 17:07:27MT - msg#: 129224)
$$$$ $425.2 $$$$ NTgeo (02/13/05; 20:50:43MT - msg#: 129265)
$$$$ $425.0 $$$$ John the Jute (2/12/05; 10:05:37MT - msg#: 129211)
$$$$ $424.9 $$$$ compwiz4u (2/13/05; 15:47:41MT - msg#: 129251)
$$$$ $424.7 $$$$ Alchemist (02/13/05; 19:15:55MT - msg#: 129260)
$$$$ $424.5 $$$$ Cometose (2/12/05; 13:40:09MT - msg#: 129214)
$$$$ $424.3 $$$$ Goldilox (2/11/05; 18:37:40MT - msg#: 129185)
$$$$ $424.2 $$$$ lifer (02/04/05; 15:22:20MT - msg#: 128883)
$$$$ $423.9 $$$$ omegaman (2/13/05; 12:25:23MT - msg#: 129248)
$$$$ $423.7 $$$$ Tevye (2/12/05; 14:16:40MT - msg#: 129219

I the CONTEST Wiz, wish to say, "THANKS ALL", who made this contest very enjoyable with your fantastic response to the difficult ENTRY STATEMENT segment of the contest. Many of those comments brought tears to my ol’e eyes.

Gandalf the WhiteTHANKS Sir Goldilox !#1293782/16/05; 12:39:18

Goldilox (2/16/05; 11:19:47MT - msg#: 129374)
GreenSpam effect (?)
YES, the ESF Boyz got their HEAD handed to the FED on a SILVER PLATTER !!

TownCrierBelgian, on the "objective" unit of account#1293792/16/05; 14:15:54

It is good that you are trying to elevate awareness in the discussion about this.

I think many (such as Fekete) who advocate a gold standard (a standard monetary convertibility into gold bullion or gold currency) upon the notion of an "objective unit of account" have failed to more fully consider the ramifications.

Setting aside the social difficulties history has revealed which confronts and confounds the maintenance of a gold standard at every serious turn in the road, there looms a bigger problem to the well-being of a toiling saver.

What the gold standard proponents overlook is that the so-called "objective" value of the standard is immediately impaired as soon as a bank grants its first loan. The idealized standard of convertibility is exposed as something that is no longer "objective" but rather is "subjective" upon the whims of the participants to either test or trust any given bank(s) on any given day.

Do the advocates pretend not to know, or do they simply ignore the fact that even a so-called "gold standard" monetary system is not ever 100% backed by gold? As credit is extended and the effective money supply grows, the so-called "objective" benchmark value of the shrinking gold component becomes more and more obscured within the monetary system.

The crux of the problem or failure with their monetary scheme is most simply conveyed in the following experience:

As the money supply grows through the extension of credit which occurs even under a gold standard, despite the so-called "objective" value of the gold benchmark, the society nonetheless experiences a general price inflation. The prices for everything begin to rise... everything, that is, EXCEPT the price of gold itself, which has had its value nailed to and crucified upon the cross of the inflating monetary unit.

In light of the social politics that do preclude any serious reconfiguration of the central-bank-centered banking system as we know it, the only way a saver can hope to avoid inflationary losses of his bank account and currency is to focus on the more truly object value of non-monetary property. And to the extent that he would like to rely upon the portable convenience of gold property, the gold must be un-nailed so that its market value, when expressed as a price, is free to objectively float along with everything else.

Gold is not credit, gold is not debt, gold is not a promise, an obligation, nor an adjudicated partial settlement of a defaulted contract. For an Objective Value Advocate to have something to hang their hat on, they must eventually come around to realize that the monetary system cannot offer them the standard they seek. They will find it only in tangible property. This can include gold as a floating asset outside the banking system, or even as a floating marked-to-market reserve asset within a banking system. However, a thing's "objective" value becomes lost if ever it is fixed or attached to society's very elastic money supply.

As you rightfully suggest, the next currency to undermine the dollar of its current reserve status will be the one that is more purely a nominal numeraire that seeks only to measure the floating price of gold property without seeking to control its value. At such time, gold and that nominal currency could peacefully coexist as allies to the maximum extent practicable; even in the face of social politics (which shall ever be part of the backdrop) because the currency providing this particular arrangement was designed for a stable symbiosis that would weather the vagaries of economic and social shock, including a massive upward revaluation of gold itself when the old nails are finally and completely pulled out.


RimhTC, Belgian#1293802/16/05; 14:37:16

Thanks, both of you, for clarifying and crystallizing the concerns I had but could not quite wrap my brain around to comment on it. If gold is allowed freedom it can function much more objectively than if it were "shackled" to any currency. It might be argued that we have a de-facto gold standard happening right now with the gold price (price discovery mechanism at least) so closely linked to the dollar..... but perhaps I still miss the point of a gold standard.
USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1293812/16/05; 14:44:54">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Wednesday Market Excerpts

NY gold ends off session lows as euro recovers

U.S. gold futures finished down but off session lows on Wednesday as the euro recouped its earlier losses after investors digested testimony from Federal Reserve Chief Alan Greenspan.

COMEX April Gold ended down 0.40 cent at $426.90 after trading from $423.40 to $427.40.

Gold briefly perked up after the open as the dollar tanked following an Iran television report that declared an unknown aircraft may have fired a missile near the southern port city of Dailam, where Iran has a nuclear power plant.

Equity markets initially fell on the news, while crude oil, the euro, and the Swiss franc rose.

But Iranian officials settled fears by saying the blast was made by construction workers building a road at the site of a dam at Koswar, near Dailam.

Brokers said market investors were also seen taking their cues from the euro's movement during Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's first day of his semi-annual report on monetary policy to Congress.

The dollar traded higher against the euro after Greenspan indicated the U.S. central bank will continue to gradually raise interest rates, as the U.S. economic expansion had gathered steam and that inflation remained under control.

The Fed chairman also said that while the U.S. current account deficit may be a problem in the longer term if it remains high, the U.S. probably has the flexibility to "diffuse" the deficit "without undue negative economic effects."

But market analyst Peter Grandich said, "Gold continues to offer great value as a hedge against the inevitable American debt crisis."

-----(see url for 24-hr newswire, market prices)----


Greenspan warns US of inflation threat

Dollar Falls After Greenspan's Remarks

Stocks decline despite Greenspan's bullish testimony on the economy

Bush's top economic aid quits

NYMEX crude ends above $48 on OPEC cut worries

NY gold ends off session lows as euro recovers

commishTo the Winner#1293822/16/05; 15:06:29

Congradulations for being 'best in show.' Stole this line after watching the Westminister Dog Show on TV last night. And to the 19 others who came close... will be waiting for the next contest.
R PowellHey GE // yield curve#1293832/16/05; 15:15:42

It's not everyday we see the yields UP and flattening at the same time. Maybe Greenspan is correct about future productivity in the USA, coming from intellectual knowledge and more + better edumacation, but the market is sceptical about such a transition from traditional manufacturing productivity..???

Anyway, might this flattening yield curve "conundrum" (Greenspan's term) be portending something amiss in the "no inflation, happy days are here again" outlook?? I don't know but that's supposedly the general warning about a flattening curve. But....maybe things are different this time!! Yah, that might be it?

Congrats to the contest winners!!!.... But, I must admit, I was hoping one of the two highest guesses would win. Not really, a slow steady rise will do just fine.

Belgian@TC#1293842/16/05; 15:29:17

Maybe the absolute majority (academics included) wishes to keep on living under the mastered (?) suffocating regime of "political economy"...becoming impossible (unworkable).

I've been listening carefully to "brave" Alan's Q&A + the many comments/reflections, afterwards. I wonder where this man gets the energy/courage to keep on defending the undefendable...present objective unit of account ?
Central banks stand ready to intervene...should the price of gold rise... simply in sharp contrast with Duisenberg's firm (cool) statement on gold, having to function in its role as a monetary (wealth) asset. Alan was much more specific on gold's role. Duisenberg was much more reserved on the yellow precious role (to come).

I suspect that there is building some (strong) illiquity in the metal's market, once again. The goldprice-behavior seems to suggest so ?

They want the Chinese (Asians) to let their currency "FLOAT" as to provide relief !!! I want the goldprice to float. Do you feel the tension that is gradually building here ?

BelgianYES Rimh...#1293852/16/05; 16:03:47

Yes, indeed Sir...we have a "pseudo" gold-standard now !
Just like we have pseudo floating currencies. They float a little bit...constantly "measured" ! But can one possibly be a litlle bit pregnant...from time to time !?

Pseudo or quasi floating means fixing at convenience. It is out of the destructive competition of floating currencies, that EMU was born. There was a need for a common unit of account (euro) !!! A floating goldprice will be beneficial for all who wish to adhere to this concept.
A semi-fixed goldprice is only at the dollar's service (convenience). The dollar makes gold say, through fixing, what the dollar is worth. A floating goldprice will say what all the currencies are worth. At present all currencies are "priced" by the dollar(system) and not "valued" by a floating, dollar-detached, goldprice.

More and more oil is changing its ideas about the dollar.
Today's price-behavior (intraday) of oil, was very significant, again (+ 2%). How long are we going to continue blaming peak-oil/ME-tensions and other events, for the rising $-POO ?
Note that Iran just inaugurated a new embassy in Germany. There is no Iran embassy in the US.
No oil-owner is ready to produce more output as to compensate for the (artificial) shortages. WHY is that so ?

Oil wants an "objective" unit of exchange !!! It will not take that long before Asia also wishes to trade for such a unit. Their present positioning goes like a train.

Great Albino BatWhat the future holds for paper money....#1293862/16/05; 16:30:46

Just a little "factoid" to keep in mind:

Since 1935, Argentina has erased 13 ZEROS from its currency.

If the 13 zeros had NOT been erased, it would take

10,000,000,000,000 (TEN TRILLION) 1935 Argentinian pesos to purchase ONE present day Argentinian peso.

ALL policies that produced this disaster, are at work around the world, today.

Same policy = same result.

You do not need to look at the daily price, to know what you have to do: BUY GOLD according to your means, and go about your business with a mind at peace.


SundeckWGC on Indian crusade?#1293872/16/05; 16:34:24


WGC urges for cut in gold import duty

Posted online: Wednesday, February 16, 2005 at 0039 hours IST

MUMBAI, FEB 15: The World Gold Council (WGC), in its pre-Budget recommendations, has asked the finance minister to develop a spot market for gold in India, and reduce import duty on gold jewellery imports to 10%.

The Council also asked the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to allow banks to offer gold-backed savings products and give ‘gold’ loans that are currently 4-5% lower than rupee loans.

According to the WGC estimates, over the last decade, at least 20% of the total gold supply is being consumed by India and Indian households buy gold worth Rs 40,000 crore every year.

But still, the Indian financial sector has little influence on the international gold market.

The role of the banking sector is restricted to only importing bullion for sale to wholesalers and, hence, are not able to actively trade in the spot bullion market.

The Council wants that banks and other financial institutions should be allowed to trade on the commodity exchange on ‘spot price’ basis.

Sundeck: What does the forum make of this venture? Is there a rat to be smelt??? Or am I just being overly suspicious?

FlaccusBelgian and GAB,#1293882/16/05; 16:58:28

Interesting posts today.

I have attempted to think through what it would mean to the gold market if suddenly the Europeans were to announce that they were establishing their own gold market fix convened each day in Frankfurt and that the price would be set soley in euros. All settlements either forward or at the spot price would also be denominated in euros and euros only. Buyers would pay euros only and sellers would accept euros only.

I would be interested to hear what either of you might be willing to offer on that subject -- speculatively of course. I know this is difficult terrain.

Great Albino BatTo document my previous post:#1293892/16/05; 17:03:35


Name of Unit Date Equivalence

National Currency 1881 Peso

"Ley" Peso 1970 100 Pesos "Nat. Currency"

"Argentino" Peso 1983 10,000 "Ley" Pesos

"Austral" 1985 1,000 "Argentino" Pesos

"Peso" 1992 10,000 "Australs"

Therefore: ONE present day Argentinian peso = 10,000 "Australs" X 1,000 "Argentinos" X 10,000 "Ley" pesos X 100 National Currency pesos (1935) = 10,000,000,000,000
or TEN TRILLION present day units, if the zeros had not been erased.

Erasing zeros is a convenient way of getting people to forget the past. "Let bygones be bygones" says government.

Befuddled people soon forget, and the binge goes on.

Think about YOUR savings! If you do not want to see them turn to dust, BUY GOLD.

Great Albino BatSundeck: OBVIOUSLY there is a rat!!#1293902/16/05; 17:14:12

The objective of WGC, faithful to its masters (who are certainly NOT the miners!) wants to "paperize" gold in India, by weaning the people of that country from their love of physical gold.

"Deposit your gold and earn interest on it" - the classic siren-song appealing to GREED.

That's step number one: parting the individual from his gold, in return for a paper!

It figures. With India as the prime buyer of gold on the world market, it is vital to seduce the people of India into "earning interest" and "not let your gold lie idle, let it WORK for you!" With the physical gold out of the hands of the people, it will be simple to use that same gold to further control its price and keep it down.

It might work, over time. But - do the powers that be have time? Big question. India is a very populous country and it will be difficult to change its ancestral habits.

the GAB

SundeckPaperising Indian gold#1293912/16/05; 17:28:55

Ahhh....yes, Sir GAB,

"Deposit your gold and earn interest" is one leg of the gambit, but also "why not buy gold-backed securities instead of the real thing? You are linked securely to the POG, but don't have all the hassle of storing the heavy stuff."

Wow... One leg attempts to free up all that dormant gold, and the other leg attempts to reduce Indian offtake from the physical supply...

Will the locals swallow this?

WGC = WAGC = World Anti-Gold Council methinks


ToolieWhere did it go?#1293922/16/05; 18:42:27

Snip: [Business India]: Mumbai, Feb 12 : India's foreign exchange reserves plummeted to $128.91 billion in the week ended Feb 4 as overseas fund inflows into the domestic market slowed down, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said Saturday.

During the week, gold reserves fell by $192 million to $4.39 billion, said the RBI statement. (end snip)

Why the $806 million decrease in reserves? Not to mention the 15 tons that were apparently sold.


Black BladeJapan skids into another recession#1293932/16/05; 20:47:13


TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's economy shrank for a third straight quarter in the last three months of 2004 as export growth and personal consumption weakened, marking the country's fourth recession in less than a decade.

Black Blade: This is like a broken record for Japan. No wonder that Japan has been and will continue to be a strong retail market for Gold.

TownCrierToolie, where it went...#1293942/16/05; 20:56:38

You mention a 15 tonnes sale. Do you know this to be an actual event, or are you assuming it by the price change in gold reserve postion? I ask because I haven't heard that India sold gold, but then, some things blow right by me sometimes.

I'm under the persuasion that the Reserve Bank of India marks its gold reserves to market value on a monthly basis. Again, I am open to being convinced otherwise, but this is my current persuastion based on a past impression with the RBI data.

Therefore, given that your article cites the data reported by RBI as at February 4th, since this represents the weekly transition into the new month, it is entirely possible that the $192 million decline is representative of not a 15 tonne sale as you suggest but rather a simple revaluation. Please recall that the last week of December, the whole month of January, and the first week of February were a tough time for gold as it dropped from $450 to $412, and this would be reflected in any monthly MTM figures.

The $806 million decrease is the sum total change over the week of all reserve assets -- foreign currency plus gold plus SDRs plust the reserve postion held in the IMF.

As it is, they make it clear enough that the figures reflecting the foreign currency postion include WEEKLY MTM effects (appreciation or depreciation) in addition to portfolio shifts.

And as I seem to recall offhand that that particular week (ended Feb 4) reflected a strong dollar, I would not be surprised to learn that the $612 million worth of the overall decline figure attributable to the foreign currency assets was influenced more than a little by the effect of revaluation upon a lower euro, yen, and sterling.

Of course, with an eye to that figure, an outright portfolio shift out of dollars can't be ruled out as a significant element on the radar screen, either.

I hope this helps.


Black BladeInvestors, jewellers take a shine to gold#1293952/16/05; 21:40:18,5744,12272908%255E643,00.html


THE outlook for gold in 2005 was brighter than last year, with strong demand from investors and jewellers, Merrill Lynch Investment Managers, one of the world's largest managers of gold assets, said yesterday. The strength could last for some years, Richard Davis, a UK-based fund manager with Merrill Lynch's natural resources team, said in Sydney.

Jewellery demand was strong in the fourth quarter. Investment demand for gold had also picked up over the past couple of years. Over the past year there has been a strong inverse correlation between gold prices and the US dollar, so as the US dollar has weakened, gold has strengthened. "If you believe the US dollar will weaken further, as many people do when they have a look at the big trade and budget deficits in the US, the gold price might do quite well," Mr Davis said.

Black Blade: A strong trend that really shows little sign of abating. Even as some minor reversals have led weak hands to shake loose, the price of Gold and Silver has held close to the recent trading range. Obviously the precious metals will break out because none of the fundamental weaknesses in the US currency, economy, and soaring deficits have not been successfully addressed.

SundeckJapan thoughts ... BB #129393#1293962/16/05; 21:51:06

Re "recession"...

Japan is an interesting case of a stabilising, mature developed country.

There is no 11th commandment saying that "GDP shalt increase"...Japan has an aging, stable population that is well-to-do (in balance?) both materially and spiritually. Japan has the greatest life-expectancy of any country. Older people probably do not "consume" as much as younger people, and the mix of things that they consume changes. Domestic consumption could well be expected to fall for years. Not so exports, which are healthy enough, with big trade surpluses over recent times, but exports are only about 10% of GDP.

Real-estate prices, both domestic and commercial, are probably still falling in Japan as the continued aftermath of the enormous bubble in the 1980s...a bubble that affected Australia, as well. It is interesting to note that commercial real-estate prices (both rentals and values)in Sydney in 2005 are still lower than they were during the peak of the boom in 1988.

Japan's banks seem to have made surprising progress with their bad loans during the last year or two.


Black BladeGold - Analysts Comments#1293972/16/05; 21:57:22


James Moore of said the trading action in gold will continue to largely take its cues from moves in the dollar. If the greenback firms and makes further gains, gold could move back down to a range of $411 to $415, he said.

But market analyst Peter Grandich maintained a bullish stance on the precious metal. "Gold continues to offer great value as a hedge against the inevitable American debt crisis," he said.


"It's all about the dollar," said Frank Lesh, futures analyst with Rand Financial Services.

"The euro has gone from 70 lower (against the dollar) to now higher. So the precious metals are following it almost precisely," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management.

Black Blade: Alan Greenspan didn't exactly fire up the monkeys on the senate banking committee today. Still, he inferred that more Fed rate increases are on the way. Tomorrow he mumbles at the other monkeys across the hall. Meanwhile negative "real rates" remain supportive of the precious metals.

Black BladeRenewed Fund Demand May Return Gold To $450/Oz#1293982/16/05; 22:02:17


While the dollar's influence on gold continues, hedge funds unwinding their long positions over the last month weighed heavily on the market, probably knocking $15-$20 a troy ounce off the price, Merrill Lynch Director Richard Davis said in an interview.

But now, with funds' net long positions down to 2 million to 3 million ounces, a rebuilding phase looks imminent and could send gold back to early-December levels, said Davis, who heads a team that manages Merrill Lynch Investment Managers' US$6-billion natural resources fund.

"I wouldn't be surprised if hedge funds did come back into the market and push the price up to re-test that $450/oz level, and if we were to breach through that, we could see the price move maybe $20 higher and start trading in a new range."

"Gold is not exclusively linked to the vagaries of US currency markets, and while other factors sometimes fail to make the headlines, they are no less important for the long-term outlook for gold," Davis said.

Black Blade: Ditto that as pointed out here before.

Great Albino BatFlaccus: your question "Why not a Frankfurt goldmarket in euros?"#1293992/16/05; 23:13:04

Just intuitions:

Europe does not want a confrontation. (See Belgian ideas).

Europe wants to go about its business as quietly as possible. Building strength day by day.

Europe - EMU and ECB - are standing by, watchng the N.Y./Washington/London axis tie itself up in knots and finally crash in the gold market fixing scheme.

"Don't mess with a mad dog!"

No hurry! Economic self-destruction of USA will do its work without any assistance from Europe, as surely as Gravitation rules the planets.

Let the American children play with fire. They WILL get severely burned.

All in due course, when the time is ripe and the situation calls for it, the Frankfurst Gold Exchange will come to life, and operate in Euros.

968Interview with Mr Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB#12940002/17/05; 01:39:10

Q :How do you assess developments in the economic situation in the euro area?

A: Currently, the European economy is growing at faster a rate than that recorded in 2003, 2002 and 2001, but this growth is accompanied by a sluggishness, in particular in consumption, above all in Italy and Germany. In this respect, the situation has not improved compared with three months ago. Although it cannot be said that growth is strengthening, neither can it be described as having petered out.

Q : Fourth quarter data for Germany and Italy have been very negative. What is the reason for this? Are the economies of these two countries slowing down temporarily?

A : We do not really know why this is the case. The low levels of growth in Italy and Germany have certain common features, such as long duration, demographic decline, consumer weakness, the existence of a large region with an assisted economy which burdens public accounts and does not succeed in taking off (the Mezzogiorno in Italy and the East in Germany). However, there are also differences. For example, in recent years Germany has made a formidable recovery in terms of its competitivity, while Italy has lost ground.

Q : In the past few weeks, the ECB has been drawing attention to the abundant liquidity, as if it were preparing the way for a hike in interest rates in the near future.

A : There is nothing new in emphasizing the abundance of liquidity. For several years now, our monetary analysis has revealed significant growth in liquidity. Exceptionally low interest rates have pushed investors towards certain forms of investment and have led to a strong increase in prices in certain asset markets, principally in the real estate sector in some countries, including Italy. The novelty lies in the fact that attention has been drawn to this aspect during the last ECB press conference. We are in a typical situation of a prolonged monetary expansion to which close attention is being paid.

Q : But do you think it is right to anticipate tightening monetary policy at a time when recovery is, after all, only modest?

A : The ECB does not pre-announce its own moves; it makes moves, at the time they become necessary. The stance of monetary policy is determined by the level of interest rates rather than the variation in interest rates.

Q : Let's take a look at the situation in the United States. In 2004, concerns focused on the US deficits in the public and trade accounts and on global imbalances and the possibility of the latter quickly declining. It seems like a more optimistic outlook now prevails. Is this the correct impression?

A : It is perhaps true that at the recent G7 meeting fewer concerns were voiced about the imbalances in the world economy and the deficits of the United States. This may reflect the fact that the weeks preceding the meeting were relatively quiet on both the foreign exchange and the oil market fronts. The G7 is also influenced by the mood of the moment.

Q : So, does the US debt situation continue to be an issue in your opinion?

A : This issue will keep us busy for the rest of, I guess, and perhaps beyond this decade. There are two polar ways of looking at it. One way is to expect that the imbalances will be reabsorbed entirely through a market process and that this will occur without a significant loss of growth. The other way is that the correction of this imbalance calls for economic policy measures and that this will inevitably curb growth.

Q : Is the first opinion that of the United States and the second one that of Europe?

A : It is not so clear cut. In discussions among the G7 there is no black and white. There are rather many shades of grey: perhaps the lighter shade of grey is to be found in the United States, and the darker shade of grey in Europe. This debate came up again in London in February much in the same way as in Washington and Boca Raton in 2004. The latest communiqué from the G7 seemed more reassuring because the atmosphere was calmer and because, with the exception of specific situations, this kind of document is not used to sound the alarm.

Q : In recent months, the ECB has called for the US administration to adopt a more cautious policy on public finances, also to ease pressure on the falling dollar. How do you assess the 2006 budget presented a few days ago and President George W. Bush's pledge to reduce the public deficit?

A : We haven't yet fully analysed the draft budget, also because we don't have all the elements. For example, the text presented in Washington does not include the announced reform of social security or the spending on America's presence in Iraq. But I do see that the intentions are encouraging and that the deficit problem has not been underestimated.

Q : To what extent, in your opinion, has European pressure influenced the American decision to begin to tackle the government deficit?

A : I don't think it's been much of an influence. I'm more inclined to think that President Bush's pledge is the result of the internal American debate. Pressure has come from the establishment. The Republican party has traditionally been prudent on the government budget: its position was perhaps abnormal a year ago; it's less so today. Still, the budget debate has hardly got under way and the outcome in Congress isn't to be taken for granted.

Q : Besides the American public deficit, how do you think that the decline in the international imbalances can take place?

A : The world economy will have to reckon for many years with two basic problems: the external imbalances and the energy question. The scale of the American trade imbalance is unsustainable over time. The imbalance is so ingrained in the structure of production and in the consumption habits of the US economy that it's difficult to imagine an immediate correction. My own view is that the correction will come about with a reduction in American growth and in global growth, because I don't see other regions in the world that could replace, one for one, a reduced speed of the American motor.

Q : Many observers are convinced that the correction of the global imbalances will be a game played between the United States and Asia, in other words, between the debtor country and the creditor region. Is it like that?

A : This perspective seems illusory to me: the correction will also involve Europe, which now has its trade accounts more or less in balance. Personally I believe that the correction of the imbalances will take time, that it will be hard-won in terms of growth and that it will affect all regions of the world simply because the US deficit is so large.

Q : Having considered the situation in Europe and America, let's turn to Asia. You have just attended, together with ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, a meeting in Hong Kong with the governors of the Asian central banks. What impressions have you gained from that?

A : Japan doesn't seem to be fully out of its long stagnation, as was hoped six to eight months ago: the strength of the Japanese recovery is today modest, whereas China and India keep showing remarkable economic dynamism. Compared to the early part of 2004, it seems that China has a better control of the risks of overheating and that worries about inflationary pressures have diminished.

Q : How would you define economic growth in these two countries?

A : It seems to me that their dynamism is a phenomenon that will continue to dominate the decade. They are transforming their way of life and of production. Chinese and Indian people are moving from an agricultural to an industrial system; they are leaving the countryside to live in the city; they are getting affluent and change their habits. In this sense, the process of modernization is like a wind blowing through the whole of society. Financial tensions are always possible, but the social and economic transformation will not stop.

Q : Let's consider the most recent G7 meeting, which the Chinese government attended for the second time: would the ECB favour China's formal membership of this international grouping?

A : It's not up to the ECB to comment on a decision that is truly political. I can say that the channels of communication with Asia, and with China in particular, are open and that the ECB itself has close bilateral ties with the Chinese monetary authorities. The G7 cannot afford not to have direct channels of communication with the Chinese government: the meetings in Washington in October and London in early February confirm this.

Q : So Chinese participation in an informal dialogue in the G7 is a fait accompli ?

A : I would say so. The Chinese authorities are able to express their views whether they are members of the G7 or not. It is a very positive fact. From this perspective, it is difficult to imagine the configuration we had in London earlier this month taking a step backwards.
Very interesting interview with Mr. Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa. He makes it very clear that the US situation can not continue like this.
"My own view is that the correction will come about with a reduction in American growth and in global growth, because I don't see other regions in the world that could replace, one for one, a reduced speed of the American motor."
>>>> Compare this to Alan's statements yesterday. What a contrast !

DruidTownCrier (2/16/05; 14:15:54MT - msg#: 129379)#12940102/17/05; 01:45:08

Belgian, on the "objective" unit of account

Druid: TC, still in class going over Miner's work (incredible!). I came across what I've posted below a few minutes ago and as I was reading it, the enormity of what you and many of the intellectual giants that have posted in the past and presently post at this forum reference your thoughts as it pertains to economics and gold's role in that discipline, finally hit me. Yes I'm slow and I don't know that I'm bright enough to put into words what is bouncing through my mind as I type this post.

People, take a look at the snip below and recognize the inherit dogma that is used to describe money. And this coming from a very powerful and influential leader to the ECB. The body of work in the archives at this wonderful institution of learning IS CHALLENGING THIS DOGMA AND LITERALLY RE-WRITING ECONOMIC THOUGHT IN REAL TIME. This body of work should be in college textbooks all across this land. TC, when I read yours and MK's essay on the Eagle not to long ago, I found myself literally cheering because this was a different point of view challenging the status quo of gold thought. My understanding is now better today then at the time of that post. Yes, the sun is beginning to pierce the darkness. Thank you good sir.

More from Mr. Otmar Issing

We are this week provided a few moments of central bank sanity from our old favorite ECB Chief Economist, Mr. Otmar Issing. I have excerpted from his short paper "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices," available online at

"With stable prices money serves society best as a unit of account, medium of exchange, and store of value. Any index of consumer prices covers only a segment of prices in an economy – although an important one. Prices of assets like real estate or equities are excluded from the definition."

"We have learned on many occasions that excess liquidity can show up in excessive asset valuations and not only in consumer price inflation. Sooner or later, then, unsustainable asset price trajectories may translate into sizeable risks to price stability -- in either direction -- and often much further down the road as the long-run fallout of the Japanese bubble of the late 1980s has shown."

BelgianSundeck/Flaccus/GAB#12940202/17/05; 02:35:19

WGC-India >>> gold-paperization : Same old stinking rat.
Simply illustrates how illiquid the metal market is becoming. Not only the metal, but also paper contract gold volume keeps on shrinking.
The "old" dollar-gold-market must and shall lose its former function...quietly...steadily...gradually...without fanfare.

We all should welcome all evidence that physical gold does change hands !!! We should advocate a lively goldmetal market and not at all take this as any sign of a gold-negative. Real goldmetal sales and buys are VERY POSITIVE, from whatever corner they come. Those who keep on dreaming about an ever expanding paperization of gold, want to "immobilize" the metal and "control" its price/pricing.

Flaccus : GAB got it !!! It was the dollar who "made" this will be the euro who will "change" (break) it.
Allow me to repeat the following : The existing goldmarket can (and will) break in a fraction of time and the new goldmarket can (and will) emerge extremely fast. There is nothing as evident as another "goldrush" !!! The rush for the universal metal will be "global" this time.
Keep on asking yourself...WHY...these $-€-goldprices remain as freezed as they are !!!??? WHAT IS GOING ON HERE !!!???

Think, WHY the yuan doesn't wish to decouple (float) from the dollar !!! A pure strategic measure. Emperor dollar must be dethroned, discreetly and step by step. As an amateur observer, I can't see any other alternatives, as to explain (understand) what is going on.

Remember the times we were speculating about the UK coming into EMU, and the big breakthrough that would cause. See HOW the UK is being "isolated" from the EU (and EMU) for very good dollar-reasons of course. But the UK will always remain a trading partner with the continent and that's why the continent doesn't want to isolate (break) the UK.
Who forced the UK and why...not to underscribe WAGII ???
And then Gordon and the IMF-gold idea + the US' "pro forma" protest !
Can one conclude that nothing golden is going on ?
WHY is it that the goldprice must remain contained by all means ? WHY must the levels of global tension continiously be raised (CIA/FBI) intentionally ? Who is trying to calm things down ? Etc...

We continue to head for "escalation" for a purpose. And in the mean time, the world's second biggest economy, Japan, is in its fourth recession within a decade. They are forced to keep on buying into dollar-debt (UST) because of the IR differentials. Not a word (anymore) about gold going into Japan ? China knows what it is doing and where it is going.

SundeckMetal price charts - last few years#12940302/17/05; 03:08:13

Of general interest...

Take a look at the metal price charts for the last few years at the links provided... Choose base metals (copper, zinc, lead, nickel and aluminium) for last two years from the LME site, and precious metals for last five years from Comdirect.

Note the initial "speculative surge" in the base metals and especially in silver... Now prices appear to be settling down into a steady growth pattern...

Prices "fueled" by demand in a growing world economy (especially China) and by a depreciating US dollar (the unit for pricing).

Are we at the beginning of a "commodities super-cycle"???

It is not just oil that is "valueing" the dollar...

Gold 5yr:

Silver 5yr:

Belgian@968#1294042/17/05; 05:09:54

*** Correction of the imbalances *** !? How nice and gentle, this consensus is "worded". Knowing very well that nothing can be done to restore the balances, without a real "technical" breakdown of the dollar-engine and causing a dramatical change.
We are all to believe that "time" will correct and restore the "particular" established imbalance !?
Greenspan tried to tell us that we simply had to sweat it out. The real hard problems will pop up in 2008...when the present administration leaves. Don't worry, "yet" about a few TRILLION more or less. Americans are going to "SAVE" it from now the famous objective unit of exchange.
Aren't the Japanese the biggest savers on the planet ?

The complete financial industry is now reflecting this "wait and see" never before. Silence before the storm ! The longer it remains silent, the more devastating the coming storm will be. *Anchor* yourself with as most metal as you you you suspect intuitively that is good for you.

Even Greenspan is copying more frequently the notion of "stability", whilst he was the one who created (encouraged) instability in the first place. Easy money and its aftermaths are NO anchor...never provided a real genuine anchor...up until now.

BelgianIndeed Sundeck !!!#1294052/17/05; 05:43:09

Let's take it one single step further...WHAT ABOUT THE GOLDPRICES !!!??? WHY did the precious metal lagged so blatantly. Please, take into account that the POG low of $253 was an intentional aberration and does not count as any point of reference.
Pick up the gold/CRB-chart + gold/dollarindex-chart.
Conclude how the goldprice is being "abused" to obscure the real desintegration of the dollar-unit. Watch the dollar exchange rate against Swiss Fr/Can $ over the past 35 years. The containment of the gold-price served to mask the dollar detoriation...that is becoming more and more visible in other indicators, except gold.

The one and only worry that ECB and FED, both express publicly, is the $-€-POO. The POO is now doing what gold (the POG) should have been doing and is now absolutely forbidden to do !!!
Look at this Producer Price Index (PPI) chart from '48 (link), and you will understand WHY.

No wonder that the liquidity/velocity of paper and metal gold goes down. The "makers" will be "broken". Don't take the present period of calm as a lazy hot summer. Thanks Sundeck.

BoilermakerChina Strategy vis-a-vis US Power#1294062/17/05; 06:15:57

I think that the continued refusal of the Chinese to revalue/float their currency with the dollar can be explained this way. China witnessed the implosion of the USSR nearly 20 years ago and saw that it was economics and not armies that won the day. Simply said, the US, having the benefit of the world's reserve currency and the attendent priviledge of printing it at will, forced the Russians to the "wall" by pumping billions into its Star Wars strategic missile defense system. The USSR just didn't have the resources to compete on this level because its currency would have and nearly did disintegrate. The US won the cold war with its superior currency.

Now come the Chinese, seeing the cold war lesson, looking to turn the tables using their own unique strategy of economic pressure. Here is my theory; China is building its physical industrial structure and huge reserves of $ by maintaining spartan domestic consumption and offering goods to Americans at prices that are too good to refuse. Sort of like force feeding the goose till its ready to be cooked. Then comes the axe, a few trillion US$ dumped like confetti into the winds of the market. The $ is downed, the emperor has no clothes, darn few factories and not enough energy. Asset based wealth disappears and commodity inflation takes off.

One would logically ask why China would deliberately destroy their $ hoard and torpedo their biggest customer. I think its a small price to pay to accomplish what militarily might be far more expensive and dangerous.

I'm also sure that there are two other facets to this ecomomic strategy, oil and gold. China is busily courting oil exporting countries and buying offshore natural resource companies. We can only speculate that China is also building its gold reserves to offset the instantaneous loss in their $ reserves. What we don't know is when they will feel it's time to cook the goose.

Belgian@Druid#1294072/17/05; 06:21:54

In my opinion, Prudent Bear and many others, refuse to accept (see) the marvellous collusion between Greenspan and the financial industry leaders. Central banks do act in, the movers in the financial industry, do the same. That's why I prefer to call the whole a "fraternity". Once one accepts this as a given, one can leave a lot of yadayada for what it is.
The above is a reflection on reading PB (your link). O. Issing is simply repeating what the ECB stands for and to what extend the ECB evolves further "away" from the FED...WHO CANNOT AFFORD ANYMORE TO COPY THE POLICIES OF THE ECB !!!
Hereout follows that the change in the coming new goldmarket, will be the result of "political will". It took me a very long time to understand what this was exactly meaning.

Belgian@Boilermaker#1294082/17/05; 06:52:15

Thanks for the hot water post. I agree with the big lines in it. The details don't matter.
Do you remember the period of Big Trader, the Hong Kong gold Giants !? They had to refrain themselves from rushing into Trichet had to please, "publicly", for NOT rushing into the euro !!!

I, nor anybody else, don't know "when" it (floating goldprice) will happen. But did we know in advance that the $-POO would rush from $10 ('99) to ('04)$55 ? Did we know that in 1980 we had a few significant all time highs (IRs-Gold). Did we know that POG=$253 was the low before the WAG ? Etc...

Has China already "secured" enough energy for its expansionary plans ? Does the dollar already shows signs of hegemonial retreat on the geopolitical front ? Has Iraq already been stabilized (second biggest oilreserves) ?

This technical breakpoint (breakthrough) of freepricedgold will happen when all prospects (idle hopes) for correcting the imbalances have evaporated.

Last night, I saw a documentary on Saudi Arabia's history of the past 35 years. Yes, even SA is changing fast...but they haven't forgotten their history. They just started to understand what exactly happened to them, during all these years. They are in the process of making a 180° turn (flipflop). This change will happen in cooperation with pragmatic euro assistance. They are fed up with the ME wars.

In the mean time we, here at CPM, keep working on our gold-understanding. Some more patience mate.

BoilermakerBelgian#1294092/17/05; 07:05:30

Thanks for the feedback. The way I see it the Euro zone is not interested in destroying America's economy but sees the need to defeat $ hegemony gradually. I think China's intentions are to defeat the US economically to the point it can no longer support far flung unilateral nterventions.

This would explain Europe's slow and measured pace for building the Euro while I think that China's refusal to gradually revalue its currency suggests the possibility of a more abrupt and sinister plan.

MKBelgian, Boilermaker#1294102/17/05; 07:46:54

Interesting that France feels comfortable arming China and the talk in Japan is of remilitarization (Koizumi has mentioned reworking the constitution to eliminate the non-militarization clauses). So Europe arms China and the U.S. supports rearming Japan. Nothing like an arms race to boost stagnant economies -- European, Japanese, Chinese and American. Few people talk about the struggle for dominance in the Pacific, but it is a real thing and between old adversaries that have not forgotten the past. It will be difficult for Japan to stand idly by when North Korea has the bomb.

We are right at this moment witnessing some extraordinary changes in the world balance of power and power alignments. I saw a story last night on CNN about Syria and Iran making a pact. This will force Egypt and others to reconsider their positions as well. If destabilization of this sort suits someone, I don't know who it is. And it goes from there. . .

Things are considerably more dangerous now than they were 30 days ago and I think you will begin to see the results of this in the financial markets - including gold - as the potential realities sink in. Polarization is a word I think we are going to see start popping up in the debate. It reminds me of the years before World War I when a network of alliances and pacts pulled much of the world into the gravity of war. (And don't forget some modern scholars see World Wars I and II as essentially the same war - the war that defined the 20th century.)

HenriMK#1294122/17/05; 09:03:09

I think that dangerous is an understatement. Perilous may more aptly describe the circumstance in the Asian Pacific.

I do not understand (nor does anyone with access only to the media hype) the full situation. It is my hope that some people somewhere do and that they are essentially sane individuals who do not put the opportunity for profit or momentary political advantage ahead of their concern for innocent lives.

But then again they human. Do these individuals actually make the decisions or do they answer to others in the orchestration of events. As a casual observer I think I can make the bold statement that what we are observing here is a lack of orchestration. This is a large change from the 60's seventies and eighties.

I do not know which is the foulest of alternatives, an orchestrated peace that suppresses the injustice of the enforced peace or an evolving and unconstrained venting of hostilities and struggle for resources in the open, but an uncertain and frightened world in possession of WMDs is by far an undesirable circumstance.

So far I see no overt signs of trouble like Kruschev banging his shoe, and NK (North Korea not Nikita) is saying they were forced to develop WMD's in self defense begs the question against what threat and if so why did you feel compelled to sell the technology to others (or did they?) Now Japan's case is actually compelling that they need to be allowed to militarize against this credible threat. This is what used to be referred to as nuclear proliferation and escalation of international tension.

I personally prefer it out in the open rather than supressed and concealed...a far more dangerous circumstance. So how does the world move forward to a circumstance of global peace? I submit that it cannot be done while its people are focused on who has what and how they got it and what can be done to extract vengence or to balance the scales of justice religeous or otherwise.

I think a world in balance is not a suitable model of peace to strive for where sustainable growth is promised to all. This model presumes that the temptation to tip the scale is non-existent. The closer we come to a balance, the smaller the scale of events that can tip the world out of balance.

My intuition tells me that there will not be true peace until such a time as territorial boundaries are again defined by hunting rights and agrarian pursuits with peace loving chieftans in charge and the scourge of war lords are limited by their inability to reach very far. Their only weaponry stone age vintage and not enough people on the planet for it to make a difference.

That said, the only viable alternative is currently enforced ceasefire and for those troublesome elements, disarmament. There also must be an atmosphere of justice or the whole model becomes a mockery. This begs the question enforced by whom?

Superior firepower has always been the answer here. What happens when the ideology of the planet shifts away from political organizations in possession of this element of superior firepower? Voluntary disarmament is called for and in fact is being executed in a reasonably controlled way. The world is actually following this path and must now deal with the margins of error introduced by such a course of action...subversion of WMD materials is the most visible threat at this point.

Now, how is the world going to accomodate the most recent release of rampant capitalism (China). They are meddling in some areas of resource acquisition that is making the US administration nervous. The handing over of the Panama canal to Chinese interests must have forseen a move to usurp the petroleum resources of the Gulf of Mexico by a purely capitalistic approch. It probably did not forsee a simultaneous move on the Canadian oil sands.

In the case of the Panama canal, how could we possibly blockade our own business interest. The likelihood that if the US had retained the canal and then placed a surcharge/tariff on passage of petroleum products moving through it would be successful in stemming the flow of oil to China or the Asian Pacific in general is ludicrous since they would pay us with our own worthless dollars.

Hmmm...did we give up the canal as part of a contingency plan being executed to counterbalance the play of the china card by Nixon? Would such a plan even be revelant in todays world?

I am inclined to believe that none of this is orchestrated and that China has simply out capitalized us using abundant and cheap labor at home and taken the proceeds to corral the resources it will need to satisfy the growing hunger for material wealth within its borders. Such a hunger cannot be constrained without risking civil unrest. Considering that China was "civilized" well before Europe, I am hoping that they are actually reasonable people to deal with.

What would happen if the world decided to use the chinese currency as the global reserve currency? For the US, it turned us into a service oriented economy that produces little on its own. Those that do produce manufactured goods here have been internationalized (bought by foreign interests with our own this as subsidized by the US taxpayer).

Is this the way to tame the tiger? I am beginning to think that we are the ones who have been tamed. Does this make me angry? No. I look at it as just yet another event in the continuing struggle for global survival.

Black BladeGreenspan Testimony Cut-Away#1294132/17/05; 09:35:50

I am watching Alan Greenspan give his semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to the House today. Of course it is rather curious that it is not on C-Span but on CNBC. When Rep. Ron Paul gets his chance to ask questions he begins talking about the twin deficits, inflation and as soon as he begins to mention the "Gold Standard" - CNBC cuts away for some meaningless drivel only to return when time is up for Rep. Paul and the other monkeys get to chatter away. It looked rather timed. "Interesting"

- Black Blade

goldquestBB: Greenspan Cut-away#1294142/17/05; 09:55:23

I waited patiently for Ron Paul's questioning only to get totally irritated at CNBC ( CutNowBeCute) for their interruption!
goldquestP.S.#1294152/17/05; 10:06:17

Congrats to Black Blade and the other contest winners!
Thanks to MK and Gandy for another fun contest. goldquest

Druid@BB#1294162/17/05; 10:09:44

Druid: Them !#$% cut away right at the moment that Congressmen Paul was attempting to chip away at Greenspan's credibility by quoting a part of Greenspan's own words in his famous Essay on Gold and Economic Freedom. It was at this point that CNBC cut away to Rocky and Bullwinkle. Greenspan, with a straight face, tried to suggest that central banks have done as comparable a job as the gold standard in administering monetary policy over the years.
Gandalf the WhiteThe GOLD P&F Chart is now starting to "LOOK GOOD" <;-)#1294172/17/05; 10:43:52$GOLD,PWTBDANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

On the WAY UP now !

Great Albino BatDruid: It's called "CHUTZPAH".#1294182/17/05; 10:48:02

"Greenspan, with a straight face, tried to suggest that central banks have done as comparable a job as the gold standard in administering monetary policy over the years."

I.e., Greenspan is shameless.

Let us remember, however, that people always get the government they deserve.

Gandalf the WhitePoor ESF Boyz are not creating the GREENSPAN effect today either !#1294192/17/05; 10:56:54

Not as easy as it used to be !
Things are CHANGING !

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Experience first-hand the unifying power, security, and staying-power of gold#1294202/17/05; 11:02:09">gold 20 franc coins
Great Albino BatSome more intuitions...on China#1294212/17/05; 11:19:32

What the GAB thinks the CHINESE are thinking:

"Great USA, you give us your opinion that we should revalue our Yuan. Thank you so much for the advice!

"You devised the world monetary system at Bretton Woods; you built it to suit you, not to suit the rest of the world; not to suit us, the very poor Chinese.

"Now your precious wealth-gathering system is working against you. You have become lazy; we are used to working for a few dimes a day.

"Now you have second thoughts about the convenience of your own system, which you imposed on the world.

"Now, you want us, the Chinese, to change the value of our money, to suit your desires.

"Please understand, USA: China is not going to change to suit you, who designed the system that now works against you.

"You built the monetary system, so YOU are the one that is going to change, not us."

Gandalf the WhiteSir GAB <;-)#1294222/17/05; 11:37:15

What the GAB thinks the CHINESE are thinking:
YES, AND that is why they CHINESE have a BIG SMILE and nothing to say !

geR Powell#1294232/17/05; 11:45:08

Here is a nice tool - dynamic yield curve.

About the yield curve conundrum, some say that Greenspan may be buying the longer term bonds and thus causing the inversion. If true, the bond sellers do not rush into commodities, other currencies and gold.

Another possibility is that, a stockmarket decline is now being expected, after which a series of rate cuts would be done to "revive" the economy; and those positioned in long bonds would benefit. If true, the players are somewhat assured that the dollar would remain stable during this "play".

Buying physical gold is the easiest way to go thru this mess. As O'Higgins remarked some time ago, "Not too many things you can buy today half the price of 24 years ago".

Gandalf the WhiteThe SPOT gold price chart of today has caught the YOYO effect also !#1294242/17/05; 12:01:27

CONGRATULATIONS to Sir Yellow Jacket for WINNING the GOLD and Sirs Black Blade and The Hoople for SQUEEZING Sir Yellow Jacket and winning the SILVER Eagles in the POG Contest !

(Really, Sir Yellow Jacket jumped in between them and STOLE the YELLOW from them, but I would NEVER even think to say anything about THAT !)


(and note to Sir YGM --- SIR MK times these CONTESTS to be at the START of an UPTREND in the POG! HINT HINT !)

Now, I must go back to seeing about "getting" Sir Smeagol some more of his favorite FOOD !
LATER all,

Gandalf the WhiteWOWSERS ! Thanks Sir GE !!!#1294252/17/05; 12:07:23

ge (2/17/05; 11:45:08MT - msg#: 129423)
R Powell
Here is a nice tool - dynamic yield curve.
Throw that into "ANIMATE" and stand back and enjoy the "SHOW" !

BelgianGreenspan in a nutshell....#1294262/17/05; 12:16:08

" The Owner Society " : Borrow to save !?
MKGandalfa: Contest comment#1294272/17/05; 12:19:22

Though I do not want to diminish the price guessing prowess of Sir Yellow Jacket, Black Blade and the Hoople (as their efforts were noble indeed), I think it needs to be pointed out that the only reason they won is because Lady Waverider let them (posting a guess of $7000 to relieve Sir Invisible Hand of loneliness at the top of the guessing grid). <smile & wink> For those of you who are not aware, Lady Waverider has won metal in three or four of our contests. One of them surely would have finished fourth, but for the gracious withdrawal of the Lady.

"How do I love thee
let me count the waves. . . .

TownCrierHEADLINE: Dollar slips as Greenspan says nothing new#1294282/17/05; 13:11:27

NEW YORK, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, in a second day of congressional testimony, reiterated that U.S. interest rates remain "fairly low," in a signal that they will keep rising.

"I think that the market has seen what it wants to see (in Greenspan's testimony), and the market's bias is still pessimistic," said Jeremy Friesen, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets...

^----(from url)----^


Black BladeBoomers to Delay Retirement #1294302/17/05; 16:02:55


The traditional notion of retirement -- a period of time to enjoy rest, relaxation, hobbies and favorite activities during the Golden Years -- is rapidly becoming a mirage for most baby boomers. The bull market meltdown, stratospheric deficit levels, rising life expectancy, surging health care costs, lack of retirement savings and a brewing labor market shortage, are forming a "perfect storm" that will force or entice boomers to work during their golden years.

Black Blade: And speaking of "Golden Years"... OK, so ya saw that one coming (grin). Get a start on secure savings for the future with the precious metals. You can see a decent selection in the USAGOLD Castle Treasury and talk to one of the Castle Guards about how to go about it.

BoilermakerBarrick's 4th Quarter Announced Today#1294312/17/05; 16:43:53

Barrick's 4th Quarter results that look OK on the surface are loaded with one time credits and charges that all but eliminate net operating earnings. But what I was looking for was their change in hedge position. Here's what they had to say about that:

"During the quarter, Barrick reduced its fixed-price gold forward sales position by about 200,000 ounces, bringing the reduction for the year to 2 million ounces, in excess of the targeted 1.5 million ounces for 2004.

Barrick has also allocated 6.5 million ounces of its existing gold sales contracts to Pascua-Lama during the quarter in support of anticipated financing for the project. The Pascua-Lama gold sales position represents just over 35% of currently identified gold reserves at the project and does not impact any of the 643 million ounces of silver contained within the gold reserves. Barrick expects the allocation of these contracts will preclude any requirement by lenders for any incremental gold sales contracts.

At quarter end, the Company''s Corporate gold sales contract position, which excludes Pascua-Lama contracts, was 7.0 million ounces, representing just over one year of future expected gold production and approximately 10% of the Company''s reported non-Pascua-Lama proven and probable gold reserves."

Clearly Barrick slowed down their hedge buybacks in the 4th quarter. The "allocation" of about half their remaining hedges to the Pascua-Lama project "in support of anticipated financing for the project" suggests one or more of their counter parties has forced the issue of where their gold is coming from. Reading further between the lines it may occur to cynics like me that these counter parties want their golden promises to come from a source outside the US and they have some "enforcement" provisions that Barrick does not want to trigger.
I'm sure there's other possibilities and I'd like to hear what ya'll thinkin.

Great Albino BatEncouraging...#1294322/17/05; 17:22:44

Another "X" at $428 on the Stockcharts P&F chart today.
Gandalf the WhiteTHANKS Sir GAB !#1294332/17/05; 17:38:21$GOLD,PWTBDANRBO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]&pref=G

Sooooo busy that I missed that new LITTLE GREEN "X" today.

melda laureBalance, vs stability.#1294342/17/05; 18:12:56

Always it is a question of first principles. A "centered" pendulum is balanced whther it is hanging mass down, or straight up. However, the one with the mass on the bottom is stable, and the one with the mass on top is NOT.

What critical 21'st century item does France produce? What unique (or at least RARE) technology does it posess?

And let's not forget the mirror questions: what critical 21'st century item does France lack? Not for naught do they have so much nuclear generated power as they have no domestic oil.

Henry, it is (in my opinion) a great fault of capitalism that those who, having won by honest means, are then tempted to hold those commanding heights by dishonest means - and so the cycle of tyranny is re-born; though perhaps this is a fault of very imperfect actors.

Boilermaker! Well said: "I agree with the big lines in it. The details don't matter" To quote the little giant: "to get rich is glorious". Between Oil and Gold probably gold has the staying power. The removal of cheap energy will change the carrying capacity of the planet. That 1 or 2 barrels of oil per Chinaman/yr may not be much, but it is the difference between 2004 A.D. and 2004 B.C.

Since all the above ground silver is gone, it seems that silver IS a commodity and has no high Stocks/Flows ratio like gold; this is the only beliveable reason I have found why silver has no near term future as money (and that may change!). Gold will be key, Silver will merely be volatile; though it may be a critical resource. In that sense, for China, the US and the dollars we vomit their way, are expendable. Those imbalances will not be corrected, rather trade will be completely cut off.

Henri, your dimly distopic vision may come to pass. My one true nightmare is that those "free engergy" technologies turn out to be reality: men have not managed oil and uranium too well. Belgian, why do I get the distinct impression that you are saying the Japanese have saved nothing at all? Buckminster Fuller comes to mind: "you are RICH when your WEALTH base can provide more than 100% of your needs."

Credit revulsion means my fruit trees will only be for sale for gold.

TownCrier'Ownership' key Social Security goal - Greenspan#1294352/17/05; 18:25:28

WASHINGTON, Feb 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan embraced President George W. Bush's vision of an "ownership society" on Thursday, saying private accounts could foster feelings of wealth among poor Americans.

While he did not specifically endorse Bush's plan and admitted private accounts, in and of themselves, would not improve Social Security's shaky finances, he said such accounts could importantly create "a sense of ownership."

"These accounts, properly constructed and managed, will create ... a sense of increased wealth on the part of middle and lower-income classes of this society, who have had to struggle with very little capital," Greenspan told the House of Representatives Financial Services Committee.

"While they do have a claim against the Social Security system ... as best I can judge, they don't feel it is personal wealth the way they would with personal accounts," he said as he took questions from the panel.

"Whatever type of structure we have for retirement, it has to be fully funded," he said. "One of the reasons that I think we have to move towards a private individual account system is they, by their nature, tend to be significantly fully funded."

"Individuals know what they need for the future and they tend to put monies away adequately," Greenspan added.

But Greenspan said the issue of private accounts went "beyond the economics" of simply fixing a creaky system to the larger issue of preserving a stable democracy.

"It's crucial to our stability that people all have a stake in this system," he said. "I don't perceive that Social Security is conceived that way and I think it is very important to people to have a sense of ownership."

^------(from url)------^

Taking care with words, for the headline to have any logical merit it would be best to interpret "Social Security" in a more general sense, like a secure civilization or "stable democracy", rather than as the formal government-sponsored program of the same name.

As in, "(Gold) Ownership is a Key to Preserving Stable Society". By contrast, the default of etherial "un-ownable" financial contracts as happens in the time of crisis only tends to deepen society's sense of uncertainty and unrest. When a man sees that his paper savings has been wiped out, he is more inclined to be moved to drastic measures to procure and provide for the physical needs of himself and his family.

What Greenspan says about ownership is good, it's just that he didn't take it far enough to delve into the real essence of OWNERSHIP.

Ownership is not a paper claim, it is tangible property in hand.

Ignore the shortcomings of the presentation and follow the spirit of the message. Choose physical gold for the road ahead.


Toolie@ Townie#1294362/17/05; 18:48:56

No, I have seen info that confirms a sale. I did look last week when I first saw the article.
You may well have a valid point about the "marked" price of Indian gold reserves accounting for the over 4% drop in their statement. What I hadn't considered is that their marked price may trail the market by a month or so.
It struck me as an unusually large figure for a weekly revaluation, after what had been a week of flat POG.

Thanks for your tireless efforts.

Toolieoops#1294372/17/05; 18:51:23

No, I have *NOT* seen info that confirms a sale.
TownCrierToolie, on 'tireless efforts'#1294382/17/05; 19:18:21

It's anything but 'tireless', I assure you. Right now I feel fully exhausted and empty in the belly -- in need of dinner and sleep. I could probably pack enough gear into the sizable bags under my eyes to survive a month in the wilderness.

Hmmm... doesn't sound like such a bad idea...

Anyway, the occassional thanks, like yours, and the fellowship in worthwhile conversation and thought make the hours and efforts all seem a joy.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1294392/17/05; 19:22:38">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Thursday Market Excerpts

Gold futures moved clear of the $428-an-ounce mark Thursday, as traders talking up bullish price targets for the precious metal. Metals traders picked through a second day of testimony by Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan on Capitol Hill.

"Gold has resumed its major uptrend because it realizes talk is cheap -- even if it's out of the mouth of Alan Greenspan," said market analyst Peter Grandich, noting "enormous U.S. deficits and debt loads."

Grandich said it's "realistic" to think that gold can climb to $500 an ounce and higher this year.

COMEX April gold futures ended up $1.70 to $428.60. From a technical standpoint, analyst Dale Doelling believes gold is "overbought" and due for a pullback, potentially back to its January lows around $420.

"This would allow gold to work off some of the froth here and set the market up for a big rally in March and April," said Doelling, chief market technician for Trends In Commodities.

---(see url for 24-hr newswire, market prices)----

WaveriderSir MK#1294402/17/05; 21:49:33

"How do I love thee
let me count the waves. . . ."

ROTFL!! You do flatter me!! think I made a gracious withdrawal so that others may have a chance at winning?? Not on your life! My gracious withdrawal was purely self-motivated....haven't lived up to my reputation the past few contests and there were others bracketing me and losing....oh woe was me at letting a fellow Goldmeister down! :) is safest as an outlier at times. In all seriousness, thanks kindly for the acknowledgement. AND...congratulations to all the winners! Cheers!

Belgian@melda laure >>> Japan savings#1294412/18/05; 00:50:46

Context : The contrast between US zero savings and Japan's biggest saver on the globe. Contrast between the two economies operating under the same dollar-umbrella (dollar-currency-block). Japan producing goods, whilst brother US exports dollars. Japan's debt is 160% of its GDP. And we are talking about the world's two biggest economies.

When Greenspan looks into the future and questions demography, social security and medicare...he has to look at "savings". Japan continues to take in the exported dollars and has remained in recession for more than 13 years now. All this is very confusing to me, when I think about those savings and the unit of account (currency) in wich those savings exist (Japan) and are to be produced (US).

Japan prints yen and buys dollars. The US prints dollars and buys things that are consumed. What exactly are they both saving ? Is "the dollar" an appropiate store for "savings" !?

I was suggested that some of the Belgian goldsales were reserved for Japan, as to please the US ???

We all (US/EU/Japan) start to realize that the combination of demographics and stagnant economies are going to affect our unit of account/exchange...our savings, big and small or non existant. We can't keep going with "pay as you go" and put the increasing burden of the in-actives on the smaller basis of actives.

It is in the above context, that gold-reserves, official and private, *** FREELY PRICED ***...could become the genuine solution . Free priced gold that functions as a real reserve in parallel with a unit of account.

Engeneering general "price-stability" cannot go on when the underlying fundamentals are detoriating : rising debt and stagnant economies. Less jobs and detoriating (devaluing)savings.

WHY do the US and Japan remain silent on gold as "the" reserve ???

968Greenspan: `No Reasonable Basis' For Large GSE Portfolios #1294422/18/05; 01:16:17

By Elizabeth Price and Dawn Kopecki

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said he sees "no reasonable basis" for Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) to hold vast mortgage portfolios and told House lawmakers that Congress should consider gradually limiting their portfolio holdings to fend off "the problems that are almost inevitable."

"We have found no reasonable basis for that portfolio," Greenspan told the House Financial Services Committee, referring to the roughly $900 billion mortgage portfolios Fannie and Freddie both currently maintain. Greenspan said Congress should consider limiting their portfolio holdings over time, "because these institutions continue to grow and have the low capital they have and continue the hedging they need to do ... they potentially create ever-growing potential for systemic risk down the road."
This man must have incredible strong nerves and a good heart. I wouldn't sleep anymore if I had to keep all this bubbles I created from imploding ! Notice that nothing is said about a government bail-out in case of a default.

CaradocSmells like inflation#1294432/18/05; 07:36:04

Snip from Bloomberg prior to 0930 EST:

"S&P 500 Index Futures Fall as Gauge of January Producer Prices Climbs 0.8%
Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures declined after a government report showed wholesale prices excluding food and energy increased by the most in more than six years, spurring concern that interest rates may rise more than investors expect. "


Let's see. 12 months times .8 = 9.6% inflation even without compounding the rate of increase. Could explain why yesterday the DOW once again failed to hold above 10,800 and headed south.

Could also bode well for the dollar price of precious metals.


Cometosecrb#1294442/18/05; 07:58:22

4 more point until we break out on the crb ...........
will this event mark the beginning of the second phase of the BULL MARKET in Precious Metals.........??????

GoldiloxFeds Probe Conference Board Data Release#1294452/18/05; 08:58:58


NEW YORK (Reuters) - The Conference Board said on Thursday it is cooperating with a federal agency's investigation into irregularities surrounding the release of its Consumer Confidence Index.

The Conference Board, a private economic research group, also said its senior business analyst, Delos R. Smith, has been placed on temporary leave pending the investigation.

"During the process of our cooperation with the agency, we discovered that one of our staff did not follow some of our stated protocols and procedures with respect to the distribution of the Consumer Confidence Index to the media," The Conference Board said in a press statement.

"We take this matter very seriously. We have advised the agency and have commissioned a thorough independent examination. In the interim, the employee has been placed on administrative leave pending the conclusion of our review."


One too many phone calls ahead of the release? I seem to remember that George Ure was inquiring of the UoM about their release process last summer.

One thing for sure, if TPTB are really trying to populate the prison system for "slave labor", they should have no shortage of management and finance personnel.

GoldiloxDX Pump and Dump?#1294462/18/05; 09:18:19

Notice the Pump and Dump action in the DX pre- and post- CCI release. Could it be related to the concern over the numbers release process?

One might imagine a call to an ETF entity sounding something like, "We're gonna need some support here!"

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Enter the gold market with grace and confidence.#1294472/18/05; 09:56:16">Get a head start on the gold market!
Dollar Bill.,.#1294482/18/05; 10:41:23

968, That is quite a greenspan comment you posted.
For him to basically discard the GSE function means that, in my eyes anyway, that he has really tied down enough elements to ensure the one world globalist structure with dollar as basis.
The GSE's played a crucial role in liquifying the system, at least Doug Nolan has been saying so for quite some time.

TownCrierAsk about Sovereigns#1294492/18/05; 11:58:12


Great coins at great prices.


The HoopleMK#1294502/18/05; 12:04:31

Got back in town and saw my feeble guess was good for a shiny silver dollar. Thanks. And if Ted Butler's numbers are correct that should be worth about $300 somewhere down the road. Hopefully by then $300 won't also be what it takes to by a Starbucks regular grande coffee. Thanks again.
CoBra(too)European In-Stability Pact ... Revisited#1294512/18/05; 12:18:25

The former motor of EU's economic machine has deteriorated to its "spanner in the works" doctrine! Italy and even the Netherlands are doing their damndest best to cope.

Cope by hedonic public accounting and really learning the lesson from the perpertrators at source; Still learning, these guys are catching up fast.

The stability of a pact is as fragile as its weakest link. And now the weakest link, formerly the strongarm- and house of stability has learned that if it's more convenient you can circumvent its resulting backlashes. Alas, only if everone else thinks you're still in the drivers seat!

Memories of the US $ Reserve Status are coming to mind ... Mind you, globally we still live under this fractal monetary charade ... and fear its end by whip or whimper.

In the end it's a lot easier to abandon a pact than to honor it.

There is no honor in being brave and save in (legal tender)currency, as the proponents of same have proven to have no honor!

Try to be smart and build your own cache of reality in gold (and some silver) and then you can try to outsmart the market with some great plays in the gold mining markets in order to improve your physical health and position.

Stabilize your private financial health and don't fall for government interpretation thereof ... cb2

TownCrierIn other words, the 30-yr bond reissue 'trial balloon' failed to float#1294522/18/05; 12:52:23

Or to put it another way, they ran it up the flagpole, but nobody saluted.

NEW YORK, Feb 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Friday...

As part of its plan, the Bush administration is proposing a set of personal retirement accounts to supplement traditional Social Security.

"We don't view the 30-year bond as the best way to fund the long-term debt obligations of the United States", he said, adding that the U.S. would rely on the 10-year note.

^------(from url)-----^

The most legitimate interpretation of the long bond's retirement back in October 2001 and the continuation of that status is that the world market is underwhelmed with any desire to hold dollars for 30 years at any rate of interest low enough that the U.S. Fed and Treasury would not actually deem to be alarmingly high.

In other words, you can't sell IOUs that nobody will buy.

What do you think this portends when the world's economic superpower can no longer float bonds of that duration? It doesn't instill much by way of individual confidence in the currency to see this sign that the world has collectively turned its back to it.

By contrast, the rising movement of and physical demand for gold shows where collectively the world's confidence is being entrusted instead.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#1294532/18/05; 13:28:31">
The Daily Gold Market Report has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Friday Market Excerpts

Gold futures finished an abbreviated session with little change Friday, gyrating in a small range in response to moves in the U.S. dollar but nevertheless finding underlying support from several factors, analysts said.

The April futures settled down just 20 cents to $428.40. They spent the day and electronic sessions combined in a range of just $2.40, from $427 to $429.40.

While gold did not move dramatically, it did slip some early in the day when the U.S. dollar was firming. But the fact that the losses were limited at the time suggests it has some support, pointed out Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital.

"Gold looks strong," he said.

"Even when the dollar was rallying this morning, gold was not selling off. It's right below a key level. If it moves higher by a buck or so (from its session highs), it will break out."

Technicians lately have been describing the $430 area as a key resistance level, since prices stopped right around here for roughly half of the trading days in January.

Schiff pointed out that the Australian dollar is around its highest levels in roughly nine years and the New Zealand dollar is around its highest levels in two decades.

"Those are pretty good leading indicators for commodity prices," he said. "You saw surging copper prices yesterday and oil is very strong."

The 0.8% rise reported Friday morning for the core Producer Price Index for January was the strongest in six years.

Schiff offered the view that more inflation is in the pipeline. Asset prices, such as real estate, are up considerably in recent years. This inflation is likely to move to consumer goods next, he said.

"All of that is pretty bullish for inflation hedges like gold," he said.

----(see url for 24-hr news, market prices)----


Inflation Fears Flare After Surprise Jump in US Wholesale Prices

Treasuries Fall on Inflation Surprise

Treasury Bond Prices Are Lower at Midday

U.S. municipals drop as data fuel inflation fears

U.S. stocks slip after inflation data

Dollar rebound won't last

melda laureBelgian, japanese "savings"#1294542/18/05; 14:01:25

That's rather what I suspected, though I will have to ponder your answer.

I still remember a conversation between Greenspan and Rep Maxine Waters (or it may have been Bernie Saunders, (Vt.) Mr Greenspan said "I dont belive that increased participation by the public in the stock market to constitute additional savings." or something like that. Mrs Waters then bruised her jaw as it hit the floor. Later, Mr Saunders asked "dont you think that the SSA trust fund is an sovereign obligation of the United States?"

Mr Greenspan answered "No..."

KLUNK! More Dropped Jaws, "... to the extent that Congress is able to set the requirements for drawing benefits, there is ... blah blah blah"

Now, with your comments I can imagine a future conversation between the Japanese Prime Minister of 2013 and the disembodied head of Chairman Greenspan speaking from an ectoplasm-filled vessel hooked up to a shiny new GE Cryo-Mobile model M1-3000.

"Mr Chairman, dont you belive that the foreign custody holdings represents a sovereign obligation of the United States?".... answer: "No, to the extent that the FED can purchase any quantity of bonds for it's own portfolio and issued dollars..."

Koizumi head: "Mr Chairman, permit me to repeat the question while my secretary takes hold of your cryo-unit's electric cord"

R PowellCB2#1294552/18/05; 14:14:31

Your words here .....

"Try to be smart and build your own cache of reality in gold (and some silver) and then you can try to outsmart the market with some great plays in the gold mining markets in order to improve your physical health and position."

I'll agree, physical for sure, but I'll stay with paper markets other than (too risky) mining stocks. Paper games, paper risk for paper profits only to possibly pay off paper debts. I did smile when I saw you mention "some silver". Thanks
happy weekend to all...!!!!!

R PowellGE.....#1294562/18/05; 14:20:18

Bonds down bigtime today with the yields responding up and....yup..flattening again, not too much, but flattening.
Black BladeGold Climbs - Dollar Weakens#1294572/18/05; 16:39:54


Greenspan said Thursday it is "imperative" that the government restore fiscal restraint to prepare for an aging workforce and the rising burden of retirees on Social Security and Medicare. "Looking out beyond, say, 2008, the problems we have with the budget deficit are huge, and therefore we need very significant changes to come to grips with those issues," he said in response to a question.

"It would appear he scared enough people about the future," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management, a money-management company in Evanston, Illinois. "His talk about Social Security and unfunded liability scared a lot of people. People bought gold when he stopped speaking."

Black Blade: Uh.... Gold get ya some. ;-)

Black BladeGOLD IS GETTING HOTTER!#1294582/18/05; 16:45:46


And what can we recommend for those brave & wise souls who are paying attention to folks like market guru & financial expert, Jim Rogers? Jim Rogers is shouting from the rooftops & preaching that we are at the beginning of a very substantial long term bull market in commodities. And gold is one of these commodities Jim is predicting will grow in demand & do quite well over the coming years.

Black Blade: Not much discussion on physical but interesting article. Even covers Bison leather shoes and the television Carnival Barkers. ;-)

BelgianNO 30 yrs US$ bond versus YES 50 yrs € bond#1294592/18/05; 16:46:34

Now that the pressure for rising IRs is markets will focus on the "long future stability" of the main (competing) currencies.
Rising IRs mean that price inflation is finally going to manifest itself.
Most probably the EU will agree on lowering taxes on labor and raising taxes on consumption, imports from Asia included. A stronger euro will be needed and obtained as to stay on track with price-stability.

This will produce positive consequences for the price of gold.

Russia has openly chosen side of Iran. EU will deliver weaponary to China in '05. Polarization, indeed Sir MK.

Black BladeNY gold ends tad lower; silver reaches 2-mth peak#1294602/18/05; 17:12:32


NEW YORK, Feb 18 (Reuters) - U.S. gold futures ended lower but held near a three-week high on Friday while silver hit a two-month peak, supported by strong base metals and a flat dollar in thin, pre-holiday trade. New York metals closed early at about noon and they are to remain shut on Monday for the U.S. holiday of Presidents Day.

Black Blade: No US trade in the markets on Monday. However, a minor point, although Gold futures were slightly lower, the spot price was slightly higher (by 40 cents). Did not expect much change today due to the shortened trading session and indeed volume was very thin. Otherwise the "grim" economic data may have been more compelling for traders. Next week just may prove to be somewhat interesting as well as entertaining. Remember that the "Coin Shoppe" at USAGOLD is always open.

GoldiloxSan Diego's Rating Is Cut on $2.7 Billion of Bonds#1294612/19/05; 00:36:21


From Bloomberg News

San Diego had its credit rating on $2.71 billion of bonds cut by Fitch Ratings on Wednesday over delays in the filing of its fiscal 2003 financial statement and political struggles over closing a $1.2-billion pension fund shortfall.

Fitch cut the rating on the seventh-largest U.S. city's $46-million general obligation bond rating three levels to A, the sixth-highest of its 10 investment-grade credit ratings, while cutting $1.1 billion of sewer revenue bonds two levels to A from AA-minus. The rating company also lowered $1.6 billion of bonds by two to three levels.

San Diego's pension fund has $1.2 billion less than needed to pay all the obligations it will face to retiring city workers over the next several years.


Pension shortfalls are not just limited to corporate finances, as municipalities are finding their coffers a bit light, as well. If gubmint pension plans start falling like so many domino's, they might have to look at SSI "reform" from a little different perspective.

Watching a civic discussion goup on the local PBS outlet, I heard concerns about SD declaring default or bankruptcy, jobs growth focusing in the tourism market instead of the previously strong medical and technology fields, housing growth not focusing on the areas needed (more lower cost units to match the jobs growth figures), and subpoenas to fiscal authorities over the bond debt miscalculation related to the new ballpark construction.

Flashlights are beginning to blip on mounting fiscal issues.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.With our convenient online coin shop you can submit your order at any time of day or week.#12946202/19/05; 09:15:56">gold -- a global calling card
heavy mettleSerfs Up Dude#12946302/19/05; 09:21:54

Ever wonder why the banks lend out so much money to borrowers at such low interest rates worldwide for so long while at the same time knowing they will never get the principal back even if interest rates rise. Ever wonder why world and central banking cooperate across boarders but governments seemingly don't. Again if you don't see the trees for the woods, all the world's a stage. Believe it!

In this brave new world coming very soon, the super capitalist/communist/fascist state will be a place whereby your salary and yearly income will never be able to pay off the car much less a house. After this readjusting globalisation period, Americans, firstly, will be saddled with a disproportionate amount of the world debt. Others will fold later.

The proletariat will be bailed out but at a high cost to the debtor. Faustian nightmare. If you are deep in debt you will be owned by the corporate state for life. They will allow you to live in your home and drive your car to work but at a license fee enabling you to never get your head above water. Think indebted third world countries but at the micro/local level. The grandkids will never know the difference because this will be how it has always been. It is what is now being bandied about in the best tradition of Orwell as the ‘Ownership Society’. The question is who will own who.

Far fetched? The Sun is setting and They play for keeps, so be sure to get your new mandatory Federal ID cards. That's if you want to travel, transact, exchange your gold, eat, etc. America is being secured first, for your safety mind you.

Follow the money. The only solution is to buy physical gold and take your sovereignty back. Paper derivatives of any kind are your shackles. Pray that the others start to wake up to this state of affairs and show all how $%#@ the system really is by buying gold and demanding accountability.

And by all means, don't be afraid to speak up.

Cavan ManAn excellent primer on the separate.....#12946402/19/05; 09:37:36

....paths Europe and Asia have taken regarding USD hegemony. Either way, GOLD gets you to the other side.
CaradocChina targets Caribbean trade#12946502/19/05; 09:50:05

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) -- China is waging an aggressive campaign of seduction in the Caribbean, wooing countries away from relationships with rival Taiwan, opening markets for its expanding economy, promising to send tourists, and shipping police to Haiti in the first communist deployment in the Western Hemisphere.
Saturday, February 19, 2005 Posted: 0805 GMT (1605 HKT)

Another "interesting" development as China pursues raw material, ownership of natural resources that produce raw material, and markets for its finished products.


GoldiloxSerf's up, Dude#12946602/19/05; 12:05:32

@ Heavy Mettle,

Bravo. Especially the part about why banks can cooperate over borders when governments can't - even quicker when it includes "seizing assets".

I've always felt predatory lending was akin to drug dealing. Keep them indebted and they always come back, especially if now and then, just to appear compassionate, you forgive some debt or "extra charges" when their butt is falling off!

Ever notice that banks will forgive credit card late charges about once every six months, as long as you keep using the card!

My bank charges small businesses for teller cheques (like when I want to buy the shiney), but if I go to the branch manager he will always waive it as a "personal" favor.

Great Albino BatLet's not get too depressed!#12946702/19/05; 12:25:22

Great Dr. Samuel Johnson back in the 18th Century had some opinions for the firebrand revolutionaries of his day, who were hot on the path which led the French into their bloody Revolution, 1789.

I'll just express his thought as best I can, in my own words: Don't worry too much about tyrants and tyranny! When the people are really fed up, they will overthrow any scoundrel king or government. This has always happened eventually, throughout history. Let us not complain too much; when things really begin to hurt, the people will not stand for it and there will be a change.

So much for Dr. Johnson. Let us remember that when all-powerful government takes over, the collapse of the economy is not far behind, and that means, that the all-powerful government will not have the economic means with which to maintain its army, its informers, and its technological surveillance aparatus. Things will fall apart of themselves.

What is our job No. 1? Accumulate gold and silver, and don't go with the flow. And be aware of what is going on.

The GAB. Pleasant weekend, all!

GoldiloxFSN Saturday#12946802/19/05; 16:34:05

From the gold roundtable to the discussion of Sir GS' Senate testimony, today's FSN broadcast is one of the best in a while.

The final explanation of the SSI "reform" reminds one that the SSI "trust fund" is akin to calling a bad personal loan part of your "savings".

Tim Wood is still in the "bear bunker", as he wonders why a "strong economy" has produced essentially zero SM increase throughout 2004 to the present.

Pop some corn and brew a pot of Joe, as Puplava has posted 4 hours of solid discussion for your waiting ears . . .

2023Social Security#12946902/19/05; 17:03:17

Social "security" in the USA is nothing but a Ponzi scheme. Since the politcal stooges are starting to talk about it publically again, it must be starting to become known for the disaster that it is. Sir Greenspin, how about letting us keep our money and save it for retirement as we see fit!

Have a great weekend all.

GoldiloxSSI #12947002/19/05; 17:43:49


Spoken like a true "participant" at teh bottom of the Ponzi scheme.

For a more comprehensive look at the depth of the corruption, check out the Nomi Prins interview on today's FSN, or research the history of Catherine Austin Fitts of Solari Network.

Fitts has suggested that HUD has been bilked of over a TRILLION dollars, a claim that cost her job in government auditing and a number of years in civil court clearing her name from slurs against her whistleblowing.

Prins discusses the situation in banking and corporate finance and how it has barely changed from the pre-1929 debacles.

heavy mettleSerfs Up Dude#12947102/19/05; 18:43:44

The only discouraging thing now is the danger the living dead offer in protection against tyranny as there is safety in numbers. What's not to be concerned about when the solution is for these simple folks to wake up and be heard before some sort of collapse of governmental, economic or social structures transpires let along after the fact. A sprinkle of civil disobedience would go a long way but that takes courage from a spingboard of moral and debt free living. If this fire is set and these people do finally wake up, it's not going to be pretty but may be the only answer.

Me thinks however the PTB know all too well past shortcomings of this sort of operation and have planned accordingly; generations like. If anything, this cycle will last a very long time unless something drastic happens soon in the minds of men and women.

@ Goldilox - I'm glad you found something or worth in a somewhat over the top harangue. This situation needs to be addressed before the micro chip is served up as the answer to identity theft with ID and credit cards. Ever wonder why body piercing and tatoos are so popular amoung the young. ;-

geFundamental Analysis: In --- Technical Analysis:Out#12947202/19/05; 23:04:45

Smith Barney Lays Off Entire US Technical Analysis Team
Gandalf the WhiteTHANKS, Sir GE !#12947302/19/05; 23:10:13

ge (02/19/05; 23:04:45MT - msg#: 129472)
Fundamental Analysis: In --- Technical Analysis:Out
Smith Barney Lays Off Entire US Technical Analysis Team
ROFL -- Sir GE, --What does that TELL YOU ?
THE Charts and THE SPIN were DIFFERENT ?

geSir Gandalf#12947402/19/05; 23:59:06

Yes Sir, they say "do not look at the charts, we'll tell you the fundamentals".
da2gGreat Albino Bat msg#: 129467#1294752/20/05; 05:59:16

Well said!
slingshotda2g#1294762/20/05; 08:55:53

Msg#132 dated 11-12-01.
Sound familiar?

GoldiloxSB laying off technicals team#1294772/20/05; 10:00:03

@ Gandalf,

Unfortunately, it's not unlike Bush and Goss "laying off" the CIA career intelligence officers in favor of their loyalist "tricksters".

"Don't bother gathering intelligence, we'll just tell you what the political fundamentals are."

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Newcomers, take advantage of this resource!#1294782/20/05; 10:28:45">Get a head start on the gold market!
Chris PowellChina is invited to relieve the West of the burden of its gold#1294792/20/05; 11:26:38

Latest GATA dispatch.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

UsulSB laying off technicals team#1294802/20/05; 12:29:57

Goldilox, Gandalf,

Did you notice recent stories about SB issuing reports favourable to precious metals investments, and negative on real estate and Information Technology?

"The most important implication of the super cycle, states Citigroup Smith Barney, is higher long-term prices. The report's preferred commodities are bulks (iron ore, coking coal and alumina), two base metals in aluminium and zinc, and one precious metal, in gold."

Homebuilders Decline on Analyst Report
"A Smith Barney Citigroup analyst on Friday cut his ratings on six homebuilders, expressing doubts that a recent sector-wide advance will support higher valuations while mortgage rates remain at historic lows"

"Smith Barney's global strategist has downgraded the information technology sector..."

Cavan ManChris Powell#1294812/20/05; 13:31:39

Good point but I think a transfer EAST of Western monetary patrimony is unlikely. A Yuan/Gold combination is the knockout blow a reserve currency incumbent would anticipate. However, the game is on for gold--right!
Gandalf the WhiteSir Usul's comments on SB !#1294822/20/05; 14:00:04

Usul (2/20/05; 12:29:57MT - msg#: 129480)
SB laying off technicals team
Goldilox, Gandalf
Thanks, Sir Usul, that is INTERESTING !

NedVery strong article by Hans Schicht#1294832/20/05; 16:59:03

Can someone please explain the article to me in Grade 6 bond language please. Why is this man so convinced we are at the 'turning point'?


GoldiloxNew Front on the War on Terror#1294842/20/05; 17:09:34

New Front on the War on Terror New Front on the War on Terror snip:

"In appointing Negroponte, a career diplomat, Bush has brought a new and, to many, unwelcome twist to the US war on terror. Coming on top of his statement that he would support Israel if it mounted an attack against Iran's nuclear facilities, and following recent talk of enforcing regime change in Iran and Syria, it sends the signal that the US is entering a new phase in its operations against those countries suspected of sponsoring al-Qaeda and its allies. . .

Not only does this make him the most powerful member of the Bush administration, but it also heightens fears the US could be returning to "dirty war" tactics which allowed CIA-trained operatives to pinpoint and neutralize known terrorist targets or obstructive political leaders."


"obstructive political leaders" - is that foreign AND domestic?

It also most likely renews the old Nixon/Reagan/Bush I policies of support for military juntas in resource-rich hotspots. Perhaps Rummy's visit to Latin America last fall was a fitting prelude to this policy evolution, as he spoke of greater cooperation in the area of "hemisphere security".

Under Goss and Negroponte, the old "Plumbers" wing of the intelligence community is THRIVING, as we've seen with the outing of Valerie Plame a mass exodus of career "intelligence" officers.

A little more political than normal for this forum, but the tie-in is US$ hegemony coersion. It should elicit some interesting new wrinkles to the battle for world reserve currency and even greater emphasis on gold as "wealth insurance".

With deficits growing exponentially, and major market currency sabres rattling, the US dollar will have to rely as much as it can on "diplomatic support".

GoldiloxSchicht article#1294852/20/05; 17:46:01

@ Ned,

I found Schicht's article interestingly timed after listening to the gold rountable on FSN yesterday. It seems the gold analysts, who Sinclair blames for "calling tops" are now suggesting that the "gig is up" and we're off to the moon!

They may be correct, but with all the false alarms we've seen in the last year, it's hard not to suspect more "wolf cries".

Schict's article seems to latch onto GS' concern that the bond market is "not reacting as expected", from his Senate testimony. GS may be confounded by the "conundrum", but I wouldn't put it past the professional bond, gold, and currency traders to have more tricks up their sleeves.

I guess it's all part of the "wall of worry" for bull markets.

CoBra(too)Interesting Comments today - #1294862/20/05; 19:18:55

Both on Hans Schicht's essay, which may be complemented by similar views by Bill Gross, Bill Buckler, Jim Puplava, Dan Denning and some others; ... And finally, also by the Maestro himself who was quoted to have said - "The broadly unanticipated behavior of the world (- meaning the US mainly)bond markets remains a conundrum".

Well - it seems the bond markets listened for once ...

...As well as the wholesale firing of Bear Stearn's TA team speaks volumes. Even not knowing the reality of the latter incident, I'd like to speculate that TA has served a self-defeating instrument in highly mnanaged markets.
A delusion concocted and abused by illusionists of high, though macabre calibre. The calibre of the power of a real printing press, or helicopter money as the probable next FED Chairman has already "coined" the going phrase. God beware US - and the rest of us - from big Ben B., as we're already in trouble with the old guy!

Finally, it seems the TA marketeers have crept out again and feel we're now slightly overbought in PM's. So what? In due course we'll even be more overbought than ever before, as there won't be much else left to buy - except hard assets like PM's!

GoldiloxMining firms urged to endorse beneficiation#1294872/20/05; 20:58:45


February 21, 2005

By Lynda Loxton

Cape Town - Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, the minerals and energy minister, is still keen on getting mining companies to boost the local beneficiation of raw minerals and metals, particularly into jewellery, but she does not expect them to commit financial suicide in the process.

Speaking at a parliamentary media briefing on Friday, Mlambo-Ngcuka, who has been described as being "overzealous" on the issue of beneficiation, said that direct quotas on mine output that had to beneficiated locally would only be introduced incrementally and according to South Africa's capacity to actually beneficiate gold, platinum and diamonds.

She admitted that mining firms had been rather ambivalent about attempts to get them involved in the increased beneficiation of minerals and metals, especially when some reports indicated that mines would be forced to make a certain percentage of their output available for local beneficiation or face export duties.

Mlambo-Ngcuka explained: "We are asking them to make raw material available in South Africa instead of exporting it 100 percent."


SA gold miners being asked to keep some of their product at home - as an alternative to the currency battles of the rising rand and falling dollar?

If they keep some gold at home they will have retained something of value when the smoke clears from the "currency wars".

Perhaps if they attach "value" beyond jewelry, the movement will garner wider support.

GoldiloxGold dehedging continues#1294882/20/05; 21:07:52


Dehedging in the fourth quarter of 2004 (Q4) maintained its elevated levels, touching 3,64-million oz, although it fell short of the totals recorded in the previous two quarters, the Global Gold Hedge Book Analysis reported this week.

The analysis is a quarterly report which provides a timely and comprehensive analysis of the global producer hedge book and is produced by GFMS and Investec Bank.

The report said that the 6% quarter-on-quarter cut in the global position left the delta-adjusted book at end-December at 57,13-million oz.

The 14,3-million oz year-on-year decline represents the biggest annual reduction in outstanding producer positions since the de-hedging cycle began in 2000, the report said.


Ongoing miner dehedging suggests that they expect POG to continue its rise and keep pressuring their hedge books.

skiWhat's up with silver? .... the price!#1294892/20/05; 23:13:55

I have enjoyed the recent contest here at the forum and was surprised at the number of individuals that frequent these halls. I have also been encouraged over the last year of the many posts that now summarize with the tag line ... buy gold AND SILVER.... or other such suggestion. In years past, the word "silver" would not have been included to any great extent.

For the last few years, I have plainly stated that I expect the POS to exceed the POG in percentage terms. This proved accurate once again in 2004, but how is 2005 going so far?

According to data in the February 18th issue of The Rude Awakening .... Year to date, gold stands at -2.3% while silver is up 7.9%.... for a total spread of 10.2%. You will get no argument out of me that a month-and-one-half does not make a year, but it is encouraging to see silver outperform once again... and for the forum readers to benefit from their choice.

TownCrierGold eases as dollar firms, but bull trend stays#1294902/20/05; 23:25:45,%20but%20bull%20trend%20stays&type=internazionali&ling=EN

TOKYO, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Spot gold edged down in Asia on Monday on light sales prompted by the dollar's slight gains against key currencies, but precious metals generally lacked clear direction ahead of a public holiday in the United States.

"Based on charts, the market is more likely to test gold upwards, but we need fresh incentives before doing that."

Traders said active stop-loss buying could emerge should it decisively break through $428.

The market is keen to test gold beyond $430, which is its 100-day moving average.

Technically, the current bullishness is expected to continue unless the price drops below its 14-day moving average of about $420.

"A break beyond $430 could trigger active short-covering to lift spot gold to higher levels at a fast speed," Suzuki said.

Traders expect gold and other precious metals to be range-bound for the rest of the day, but prices could be exaggerated by market thinness amid an absence of U.S. players as markets will be closed on Monday for the President's Day holiday.

^----(from url)----^

Diversify and enjoy the restful kind of sleep that only peace-of-mind can bring.


heavy mettleRussell on gold#1294912/20/05; 23:53:34


. . .

Speaking of Alan Greenspan, I listened to the Congressman Ron Paul of Texas confronting Greenspan about inflation and gold at this week's Humphrey-Hawkins meeting. And Greenspan gave a most interesting answer, one that explains a lot about Greenspan's thinking and his rationale as he operates today in a world of fiat currencies.

Greenspan said that the Fed is operating as though the dollar was still backed by gold. In other words, Greenspan was saying that the Fed, by managing the markets, was literally taking the place of gold. At that point it was clear that Greenspan did not want to delve further into the subject of the Fed and gold.

The obvious question that Greenspan was avoiding was this -- If Fed "management" of the nation's money is so expert, even without the discipline of gold -- why has the purchasing power of the dollar been declining year after year, decade after decade? And, of course, that's the one subject that Greenspan doesn't want to touch. So the slow, systematic destruction of the dollar and the nation's savings goes on. Maybe that's the real reason why Americans save nothing today. And maybe it's the "hidden" reason why Americans are buying houses rather than (or as a substitute for) gold today.

On another subject, a few days ago I read that Goldman Sachs had fired about thirty of their stock analysts. Then yesterday I heard that Smith Barney fired their entire technical group. What's going on? I believe this is the story -- the pros don't really need the advisory output of brokerage house firms. The pros have their own methods and resources. It's the retail public that brokerage house analysis is aimed at. And the retail public has left the market. The retail public is off somewhere buying houses. So, in the interest of cutting costs, the brokerage houses are unloading their research departments.

. . .

CONCLUSION -- When was the last time you saw the Dow up 30 points and there were 1297 advances and 2058 declines? Is the Fed adding spirits to the punch bowl or is the stock market drinking out of the punch bowl.

Not much to be gained from analyzing today's action except that oil keeps creeping up, and the oil stocks like it -- a lot. Higher energy ahead (China and India competing with the US) seems to be a "no-brainer." But watch out for the obvious, as Joe Granville likes to say, "If it's obvious -- it's obviously wrong."

. . .

Adios --


GoldiloxDouble Eagle Replica for $20 - and bla bla bla!#1294922/21/05; 00:38:22

Lately I seem to be inundated with exclusive offers for "pure 24 carat gold-clad" coins. Maybe it reflects my choice of TV channels. No, I am not watching HSN.

Don't get stuck with gold-plated coins.

CPM handles the genuine item. Solid Gold - 90 to 100%, depending on the issue.

If gold is what you want, get real solid gold coins, not gold plate!

TownCrierInterest in gold on rise#1294932/21/05; 00:44:16

(AP) February 19, 2005 -- "There's still too much there," he said. "When we get it down to a couple of tablespoons, we'll look."

A few swirls more isolate a film of black sand in the bottom, and with a gaze born of 55 years experience he spots it. It's no bigger than a pinpoint, but it's "colors" - gold.

"They say when you see gold you'll know it, no matter how small it is," said Anderson, 78, a retired mining engineer from Baker City, Ore.

It isn't a gold rush yet; mining can be a pricey, risky proposition. But with an ounce of gold in the $420 range, people are revisiting the West's historic gold-producing regions.

...the go-it-alone flavor of the Old West hasn't vanished entirely.
With a white beard, slouch hat and a pistol on his hip, Jimmy Jehola could be from central casting. He works alone and figures he has worked Clark Creek in Eastern Oregon's Burnt River Canyon for about 19 years.

He produced a vial half-full of small nuggets coaxed from the dirt in earlier efforts.

"I needed some beer real bad so I sold half of it for $40," he said. "The fellow was going to weigh it and give me the rest of what it's worth."

Most mining is suspended in the canyon until spring because of snow, but not his.

"In the old days the smart fellows, just before the freeze-up, why, they'd go into town and get as drunk as they could and throw a brick through a window, or something," he said.

"Then they'd have food and a warm jail to sleep in for 90 days or so. Around March, when their time was up, they could head back to the hills."

He considers himself a cut apart from the larger operators.

"They're always complaining because their hydraulics broke," he said. "I'm my own hydraulic. I run on beans and alcohol."

There aren't many Jimmy Juolas out there.

^-----(from url)----^

Without a doubt that is most colorful way to get your gold.

And this is the easiest way: Call USAGOLD-Centennial, Monday thru Friday, toll free.


YGMTC...Thanks for that...#1294942/21/05; 01:36:57

I enjoyed that last post :-)
TownCrierSoros: Dollar tied to oil -- says shift to euros hurts value of dollar#1294952/21/05; 09:41:45

JEDDAH, Saudi Arabia (Reuters) - Moves by Middle East oil exporters and Russia to switch some revenue from dollars to euros lie behind the U.S. currency's weakness, and a further rise in crude prices could prompt more declines, the billionaire investor George Soros said on Monday.

Soros told delegates to the Jeddah Economic Forum that the dollar's fall should help to lower the U.S current account and trade deficits, but warned that a fall beyond an undisclosed "tipping point" would severely disrupt markets.

"The oil exporting countries' central banks ... have been switching out of dollars mainly into euros and Russia also plays an important role in this. That is, I think, at the bottom of the current weakness of the dollar," Soros said.

...said he was not predicting further falls in the value of the dollar. But he linked its fate to the price of oil.

"The higher the price of oil the more the dollars there are to be switched to euro (so) the strength of oil will reinforce the weakness of the dollar," he said. "That is only one factor, but I think there is such a relationship."

...Soros said the U.S. current account deficit could be financed at the current level of the dollar. "There are willing holders of the dollar. There are the Asian countries that are happy to accumulate dollar balances in order to have an export surplus and a market for their dollars," he said.

Soros would not make detailed comments on why long-term borrowing costs have fallen in the face of short-term rate increases, a development U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday he found difficult to explain.

"... here I don't know," Soros said.

^-----(from url)----^

Now let me get this straight... Soros is saying that the value of the dollar is influenced by the nature of oil settlements???

Hmmm... sounds vaguely familiar. Where on the worldwideweb have I heard that one before...

The 'Thoughts!' of ANOTHER and FOA/TrailGuide have given us all the intellectual jump on this by eight years -- early enough to help us capitalize on the 1999-2001 period of ultra low gold ($255) and everything in between.

Dare I say it? "You ain't seen nothin' yet."


DryWasherRon Paul on Greenspan.#1294962/21/05; 09:56:53

The following is a reproduction of the February 21, 2005 column taken from "Project FREEDOM, Website of US Representative Ron Paul." as allowed by by the rules listed on the website.

The Maestro Changes his Tune

February 21, 2005

Nearly 40 years ago, Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan wrote persuasively in favor of a gold monetary standard in an essay entitled Gold and Economic Freedom. In that essay he neatly summarized the fundamental problem with fiat currency in a few short sentences: "The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit… In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value… Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the ‘hidden’ confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists’ antagonism toward the gold standard."

Today, however, Mr. Greenspan has become one of those central planners he once denounced, and his views on fiat currency have changed accordingly. As the ultimate insider, he cannot or will not challenge the status quo, no matter what the consequences to the American economy. To renounce the fiat system now would mean renouncing the Fed itself, and his entire public career with it. The only question is whether history will properly reflect the destructive nature of Mr. Greenspan's tenure.

I had an opportunity to ask him about his change of heart when he appeared before the House Financial Services committee last week. Although Mr. Greenspan is a master of evasion, he was surprisingly forthright in his responses to me. In short, he claimed he was wrong about his predictions of calamity for the fiat U.S. dollar, that the Federal Reserve does a good job of essentially mimicking a gold standard, and that inflation is well under control. He even made the preposterous assertion that the Fed does not facilitate government expansion and deficit spending. In other words, he utterly repudiated the arguments he made 40 years ago. Yet this begs the question: If he was so wrong in the past, why should we listen to him now?

First, the Federal Reserve does not mimic a gold standard by any measure. The clearest example of this lies in our current account deficit, which our fiat currency encourages. Under a gold standard we would not have exchange rate distortions between the Chinese renminbi and the U.S. dollar, for example. True currency stability is impossible when fiat dollars can be produced at will and foreign lenders bankroll our deficits.

Second, inflation is a much greater problem than the federal government admits. Health care, housing, and energy are three areas where costs have risen dramatically. The producer price index is rising at the fastest rate in seven years. Bond prices are rising. To suggest that rapid expansion of the money supply and artificially low interest rates do not ultimately cause price inflation is absurd.

Third, Fed policies do indeed have adverse political ramifications. Fiat currency and big government go hand-in-hand. Without a gold standard, Congress is free to spend recklessly and fall back on monetary expansion to pay the bills. Politically, it's easier to print new dollars than raise taxes or borrow overseas. The Fed in essence creates paper reserves that enable Congress to undertake spending measures that far exceed tax revenues. The ill effects of this process are not felt by the politicians, who can always find popular support for new spending. Average Americans suffer, however, when their dollars are "confiscated through inflation," as Mr. Greenspan termed it.

It's not enough to question the wisdom of Mr. Greenspan. Americans should question why we have a central bank at all, and whose interests it serves. The laws of supply and demand work better than any central banker to determine both the correct supply of money in the economy and the interest rate at which capital is available- without the political favoritism and secrecy that characterize central banks. Americans should not tolerate the manipulation of our economy and the inflation of our currency by an unaccountable institution.

TownCrierBrown says China should move to free FX regime#1294972/21/05; 10:00:27

BEIJING, Feb 21 (Reuters) - China should gradually unshackle its exchange rate regime, British finance minister Gordon Brown said on Monday at the start of a three-day tour to the world's most populous nation.

Beijing came under pressure at this month's G7 meeting to ease its currency's peg to the dollar but said it had no timetable for such action despite complaints that its stance was making life difficult for other exporters.

...the Chancellor of the Exchequer said China was pushing ahead with fundamental reforms to expenditure management and its banking sector.

"In a modern open economy, capital account liberalisation is the way forward but so that it is not destabilising it will be best achieved in a sequenced way," Brown urged in a speech.

"I am support China's increasingly important role as a stabilising force in the world economy."

China and Britain also agreed to cooperate to find ways to help international institutions like the International Monetary Fund adapt to the changing world economy.

^-----(from url)-----^

That's the version of the story suitable for public consumption.

However, this following version is an unspoken other-side-of-the-coin that I would like to see given airtime:
BEIJING, Feb 21 (RandNews) - London should gradually unshackle its derivative-based gold pricing regime, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao and finance minister Jin Renqing said on Monday at the start of Gordon Brown's three-day tour to the world's most populous nation.

London came under pressure at this month's G7 meeting to ease its derivative grip on gold valuation but said it had no timetable for such action despite complaints that its stance was making life difficult for gold owners.

...London was pushing ahead with fundamental reforms to its bullion banking sector.

"In a modern open economy, property rights liberalisation is the way forward but so that it is not destabilising it will be best achieved in a sequenced way," Wen Jiabao urged in a speech.

"I am support gold's increasingly important role as a stabilising force in the world economy."

China and Britain also agreed to cooperate to find ways to help international institutions like the International Monetary Fund adapt to the changing world economy.

That would be a breath of fresh air.


TownCrierInflation happens#1294982/21/05; 10:50:16

Zimbabwe Standard February 21, 2005

CENTRAL bank is putting a brave face to the first rise in inflation in twelve months, amid growing concern that RBZ's splurging on the public sector will halt its recent successes against rising prices.

... in addition to a larger civil service wage bill, spending from central bank on parastatals, councils, cheap productive sector support, subsidies to exporters and other costs could swell expenditure by up to $26 trillion.

...The earliest sign that the fight against inflation was getting progressively tougher came in December, when the annual rate recorded its narrowest fall since the January peak of 622%. December's inflation rate fell from November's 149% to 133%, the 16 basis points difference a far cry from the 63 percentage point fall in September which encouraged central bank to raise its inflation targets.

^-----(from url)----^

With runaway inflation like that to sweep away your purchasing power, how well would you sleep if your life savings weren't as good as solid gold?


TownCrierCitigroup strategists says Bush tour may boost dollar's image#1294992/21/05; 11:00:59

JEDDAH, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Market perceptions of the dollar could improve if President George Bush's European tour to mend fences over Iraq shows any sign of success, a senior Citigroup investment strategist said.

The next two years were likely to see the Bush administration turn its attention to the U.S. currency and promote a strong dollar policy, Clark Winter, chief global investment strategist for Citigroup Private Bank, said late on Sunday.

"If the president can find a way to reduce involvement in Iraq by virtue of some firm multilateral resolution instead of a unilateral resolution, that could change the sentiment about the dollar dramatically," Winter told Reuters on the sidelines of the Jeddah Economic Forum in Saudi Arabia.

^------(from url)----^

It is more probably the case that the dollar's fate cannot be turned around unless any international pleasantries are also backed up with real progress bringing the budget into balance.


RimhTC - Interest in gold again#1295002/21/05; 11:08:43

Having worked in the Yukon in the past, I can assure you that the price will most certainly bring out many old gold miners and a whole crop of novices to the gold fields. Dawson City will be a zoo (right, YGM?). It's this dreamy fantasy life that they're after with little foundation in reality. What you really get is a bunch of boys with their grown-up toys (D-10 bulldozers, dump trucks, front-end loaders, etc. But it's good to see more activity in the industry again!
TownCrierRimh, I wonder...#1295012/21/05; 11:49:00

I wonder how many more ounces they would end up with at these prices if they simply sold their D-10's now and bought gold?

Granted, it's not as 'romantic', but they could also then kick back in style and deal blackjack for the local saloon, or if that wasn't muddy enough for them, they could hire themselves out to the guy that bought their dozer. Either way, with the ounces already in hand, they'd have an extra spring in their step because they'd already struck it rich. Any subsequent successes from their "day job" would be icing on an already heavy cake.


YGMRimh...Yukon Placer Mining....#1295022/21/05; 11:50:51

Very correct..when the POG runs up so does the claim staking and vending...Few newbies realize the easy Gold is gone...Yes there ARE untold fortunes in Placer Gold sitting on bedrock in many Yukon, BC and AK Rivers, Creeks and Gulches...Some deposits are shallow but some are hundreds of feet deep and locked in Permafrost or Fisheries and other Enviro Issues...Like all things it takes money to make money and most would be further ahead to work at their chosen profession and just buy the gold from MK...That said, Gold Fever still lives on and few today as in yesteryear will ever 'Strike It Big'...Those that do will have invested big dollars, taken big risks, and had to have some big luck...At least for those who toil on we have today a rising POG that gradually makes it profitable for the diehards...Like the saying goes "Gold is Where You Find It"...Too bad so many folks are looking in all the wrong places and require instant gratification in the process...If you have a Million $$$ to go Gold Mining, have at it, I'll await my retirement to return w/ a Dredge to some place free of Water Gods, Fish Cops, Less Overhead and where the ground isn't being dug up for the second or third time...Probably Bolivia or Peru!...Once a Golminer, the urge never leaves but common sense has to have a place in reality...YGM
Dollar Bill.,.#1295032/21/05; 12:32:27

Anyone care to post about this news that Town Crier posted?
Is this action, or direction, taken because they are so confident of the global one world structure they have built that gold no longer has to be controlled? Or at least not for the reasons, or at least -some- of the reasons, it was previously done for?
Am I making too much of this in my head? Of is this huge?

EIJING, Feb 21 (RandNews) - London should gradually unshackle its derivative-based gold pricing regime, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao and finance minister Jin Renqing said on Monday at the start of Gordon Brown's three-day tour to the world's most populous nation.
London came under pressure at this month's G7 meeting to ease its derivative grip on gold valuation but said it had no timetable for such action despite complaints that its stance was making life difficult for gold owners.
..London was pushing ahead with fundamental reforms to its bullion banking sector.
"In a modern open economy, property rights liberalisation is the way forward but so that it is not destabilising it will be best achieved in a sequenced way," Wen Jiabao urged in a speech.
"I am support gold's increasingly important role as a stabilising force in the world economy."
China and Britain also agreed to cooperate to find ways to help international institutions like the International Monetary Fund adapt to the changing world economy.

TownCrierDollar Bill, please have a second look#1295042/21/05; 12:58:33

The top story, as reported, was IN the news. As I said, it was "the version of the story suitable for public consumption."

The bottom version was, as I put it, "an unspoken other-side-of-the-coin that I would like to see given airtime."

I'm sorry that the presentation apparently did not lend itself well to skimming.


RimhYGM, TC#12950502/21/05; 13:40:33

TC - Sad but true, they would have far more gold in their pocket if they sold the D10 and talked to MK et al, (and far less stress trying to run an operation in the permafrosted north). As YGM noted, few ever "Strike it rich". Often those that come to "play" are contractors from road building companies who have made big money elsewhere and don't seem to mind losing a bunch while playing with their "toys". The real tragedy is that they often ruin some of the good potential gold production creeks with sloppy clearing/processing techniques, which also hinders their own gold recovery operations.

YGM - perhaps Argentina, with its seemingly pro-gold approach to central bank reserves might be worth investigating as well....and no fish cops!!!

BelgianIMF gold for China and/or Japan !?#12950602/21/05; 13:49:37

Goldmetal wealth in your Asian vaults in exchange for some more "structural" support for the dollar use. Float the yuan...up against the dollar...with more gold in its backgound.
More gold in exchange for temporary forgetting that "political" support for the dollar has gone.
More goldmetal from the IMF, because all other possible sources are already tapped and we need some metal to roll over the shorts.
More gold to raise the yuan/yen exchange rate and hope that the US deficits will grow slower.
More gold from Uncle Goldon Brownie in exchange for more UK-China business (insurance/banking/tourism).

I wonder if China will be happy with Japan getting a chance to acquire some more (scarce and cheap) gold !?

Nice to hear how Soros brings the message publicly in a nicely "adapted" (soft)($)(upside down) version. He was probably watching the 80 Maginot line

Funny how *Saudi Arabia* watches and comments on Bush's visit to Brussels.

Meeting between Bush and Putin will be VERY private !

The Big gold-redistribution goes on. Get your share !

TownCrierHEADLINE: A case for Govt to hike Customs duty on gold (???)#12950702/21/05; 15:15:10

Financial Daily, Mumbai , Feb. 21 -- For the Finance Minister straining to raise revenue for the exchequer, gold may come in handy. There is a case for raising Customs duty on gold imports.

Currently, the duty is Rs 100 per 10 gram. The Finance Minister can potentially mop up a few hundred crore rupees as additional revenue if the duty is raised modestly.

Demand for gold continues to be robust, driven by strong GDP growth... While it is safe to assume imports would continue at 600 tonnes a year, an increase in the existing rate of duty would fetch additional revenue.

^----(from url)----^

It seems that the author of this article would have you think that the only reason governments exist is to find things to tax in order to get revenue.

And frankly, sometimes it does seem that that's all they ever really do.


YGMLooking For Gold?.......... Have a Little Faith!#12950802/21/05; 18:40:41

and a metal detector..Hand of Faith found by hobbyists w/ a metal Detector 6" below surface...61 lb 11 oz Nugget...
Chris PowellDennis Gartman agrees with GATA on IMF gold sales ...#12950902/21/05; 19:25:41

... but not really as much as he thinks he does.

Latest GATA dispatch.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

MKRepresentative Ron Paul's questioning of the Fed chairman#12951002/21/05; 20:12:14

Ron Paul writes an excellent article as linked above. The importance of his recent questioning of the Fed chairman will resound over the years and lead to much discussion.

I have said many times here that Alan Greenspan sees himself as the embodiment of the gold standard. He has now said as much publicly and I am not surprised. The key to Representative Paul's analysis is his statement that Greenspan's testimony is a repudiation of his earlier position - taken in his youth when under the wing of Ayn Rand. Though the statement itself might be a repudiation of the earlier essay, it is not a repudiation of the man or Ayn Rand's philosophy. In the end, Greenspan sees himself as a Romantic figure in the Randian tradition. One who took the position as chairman of the Fed in the nation's hour of need, stood against the forces of money inflation - or better put - money chaos, and stood firm, only his intellect standing between the nation and inflationary disaster. The nation could not make an atavistic return to gold-backed money, so he served as a gold-backed money himself: The Greenspan Standard. A Randian hero that reflects the Randian romantic hero better than some of her most famous characters. One man. "The" individual charged with saving the world monetary system. Not even his political masters truly understand what he has done.

So do I repudiate or honor Greenspan? I leave you to decide for this is a subject for deeper thought and even deeper understanding.

Another point I have often made is that the Chairman fulfills an embodiment of the flawed Shakespearean hero, controlled by fate and perhaps destined for a tragic end. The real question after all is said done is what happens after "the standard" passes from the scene. No one -- no one -- can stand in his stead. That perhaps is the tragedy in all this and why so many would rather have inert metal at the core than a mere mortal.

****Thoughts to be considered from a watershed moment for which we owe the good Congressman from Texas a debt of gratitude.

I would bet that after all was said and done at that fateful testimony, Mr. Greenspan probably most remembered Congressman's Paul's question and the subsequent exchange. It was the most important exchange and the one I am led to understand that CNBC blacked out.

CaradocExpert says Saudi oil may have peaked#12951102/21/05; 20:34:27

Speaking exclusively to Aljazeera, Simmons came out with a statement that, if proven true over time, could herald by far the biggest energy crisis mankind has known.

"If Saudi Arabia have damaged their fields, accidentally or not, by overproducing them, then we may have already passed peak oil. Iran has certainly peaked, there is no way on Earth they can ever get back to their production of six million barrels per day (mbpd)."

The technical term for damaging an oilfield by overproduction is rate sensitivity. In other words, if the oil is pulled out of the ground too fast, it damages the fragile geological structure of the field. This can make as much as 80% of the oil within the field unextractable. Of course, at the moment, virtually every producer is at full tilt. The most important among them is Saudi Arabia; their Gharwar field is the world's biggest.


This story not getting a lot of ink.


Black Blade@ MK - Paul and Greenspan#12951202/21/05; 20:41:13

I was watching CNBC both days and unfortunately the network cut away for some "chit-chat" at the first mention of "Gold" during the Greenspan and Paul exchange coming back when Ron Paul was finished. Apparently the meaningless chit-chat between two network drones was somehow more important. Everything else discussed by the Congressmen was about the proposed changes in Social Security. Even so, at no other time during the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony did the "Carnival Barker" network cut away for "chit chat" or even for commercials.

The markets did not really react much to the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony either day as they usually do with the minor exception of the word "Conundrum" mentioned the day previous during the Senate's turn at the Chairman. Market traders did not see any earth shattering news - positive or negative - so the markets traded slightly lower.

The real news lately appears to be the tightness in the oil supply and the lack of any spare production capacity. Meanwhile the US dollar continues to weaken under the unsustainable pressure of the twin deficits.

- Black Blade

BTW, today I recieved the Silver Eagle for the recent POG guessing contest. Thank you!

Black Blade@Caradoc - Energy Crisis#12951302/21/05; 20:49:42

Matt Simmons out of Houston is one of the major proponents of the "Peak Oil" debate and has a lot of background and data to back it up. In fact the Saudis have announced that they will double the number of drill rigs to keep pace with current production (note - not "increase" but to "keep pace"). Ghawar is in serious decline now and is infilitrated with sea water/brine. I am not aware of the 'damage" done to Saudi fields but Iraqi fields (especially in Kirkuk) have beed irreparably damaged under Saddam by overproduction.

Oman and the UAE are experiencing severe production declines as well, not to mention "peak oil" production reached in Indonesia, Mexico, and the North Sea. In 1980 there was about 25% space production capacity and today it is less than 1% (or "just in time" inventory). It certainly does not look good with a potential bidding war in the offing with the new participants from China and India.

- Black Blade

Buongiorno!with- hold gold#12951402/21/05; 21:41:02

One of mining's finest executives is pictured in today's news release sitting atop this year's with held bars, amounting to about one-third of that produced.

This gentleman, IMVHO, is one of the sharpest in the world at what he does. We bet against him at our peril. He has held back a massive portion of his production, while his peers scramble to cover their hedge book shorts--or worse yet, conspire with their bankster friends to extend their hedges.

This bright fellow also sold much of his position over a year ago, for various reasons, and was basically correct. He is now again building an inventory and I may only grade that as bullish for gold.

Peeky-peeky that a print at $428 I see?

Caradoc@ Black Blade (Saudis peaking?)#1295152/21/05; 22:09:46

The phrase "peak oil" carries a lot of baggage related to fear/greed and can be debated among those who fine tune their definition of the term. More understandable to the Joe Sixpacks of the world (who won't buy their first ounce of gold until they sense that things are going south) is the message inherent in your post. No matter how experts may define "peak oil," for the Saudis to have to double the number of rigs simply to maintain their current level of production certainly qualifies as having passed the point of diminishing returns.

PS: a lot of good reading is linked at URL above, including
Venezuela's Chavez threatening to cut off oil exports to the US if there's an assassination attempt against him

Gandalf the WhiteTHANKS, Sir YGM !!!!#1295162/21/05; 22:19:10

I needed THAT !

GoldendomeSaudi's pumping Water!!#1295172/21/05; 22:43:39

Last Wednesday eve, we were listening to a Calgary, Alberta, A.M. "Blowtorch" radio station. The show's Business/economics interviewer was speaking with an oil markets trader out of Chicago. The trader said that at this point the Saudi wells are pumping 75% oil, 25%water! Now, he didn't say how many wells or which fields, but that was his blanket statement. I haven't seen any huge ponds of dirty water out there in the desert, but perhaps they indeed are there. The show was, of course, dealing with the worldwide conflicts and financial difficulties that will likely be raised with "peak oil".

They also spoke extensively about China's interest and probable investment in the Athabasca Tar sands or oil shale there in Alberta. The point was: That even though the sands are not a profitable venture at this point, they will likely become so, as we slide down the back side of the bell curve of peak oil. China has come late to the oil party and is scurrying world wide to confirm future supply.

Black Blade@Caradoc - Saudi Oil#1295182/21/05; 22:52:39

It was just last week that Saudi indicated they would increase the rig count to 74. It has been interesting to watch the Saudis continuously state that they would increase production to keep the price of oil in the $22-$28/bbl price band. We are now at about $49/bbl and the spare production capacity simply is not there.

Of course when I speak of "Peak Oil" production I do not mean to imply that half of the oil is gone. What I do mean is that the ability to produce economically viable oil reaches a point where it can no longer be increased. Many who discuss "Peak Oil" seem to be lumping together "resources" (discovered oil) and "reserves" (economically exploitable oil). Though oil is a finite resource it is not a matter of "running out" but the inability to economically increase production.

- Black Blade

Black BladeDollar Declines on Report Korea to Diversify Currency Reserves #1295192/21/05; 23:01:29


Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell almost a cent against the euro and dropped versus the yen on a report that South Korea's central bank will diversify its currency reserves.

The central bank, which has $200 billion in reserves, will ``diversify the currencies in which it invests,'' Reuters said yesterday, citing a Bank of Korea spokesman in a parliamentary report. Byun Jai Yung, head of the bank's planning department, told Bloomberg in a telephone interview that he can't comment.

``People are taking the Bank of Korea story a bit more seriously and there's some talk other central banks are backing away as well,'' said David Mozina, a currency strategist at ABN Amro Holding NV in Sydney. The dollar's decline triggered some automatic orders to sell the currency, he said.

Black Blade: This and the rumors of other Asian central banks diversifying reserves into other currencies including Gold is shaking up the US dollar trade. It has long been rumored and even confirmed on occassion that the People's Bank of China has increased Gold reserves. It is also rumored that they are buyers of the Swiss Gold Reserves as well as buyers of some South African Gold production.

TownCrierDMCC launches Good Delivery Standard for gold industry#1295202/21/05; 23:29:32§ion=business&xfile=data/business/2005/February/business_February451.xml

22 February 2005, DUBAI - Dubai Metals and Commodities Centre (DMCC) has launched Dubai Good Delivery Standard (DGDS) for the gold industry, said Colin Griffith, executive director-Gold and Precious Metals, DMCC.

Griffith said the DGDS is aimed at improving the tradeability and distribution of small gold bars.

The Dubai Good Deilvery standard will ensure the manufacture of high quality gold with a minimum purity of 995 in the regional market and will specify the delivery requirements on the soon to be launched Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange (DGCX).

^-----(from url)----^

Call it an example of informed anticipation.

Small... small gold bars. Why is small important? Because they will still be suitable for physical trade when a high price puts the 400 ounce London-standard bars out of reach for practical applications.


TownCrierRon Paul suggests, "Americans should question why we have a central bank at all, and whose interests it serves."#1295212/22/05; 00:29:44

At the risk of oversimplification, we have a central bank because Congress was pressured to make it so.

Individuals and shopkeepers demanded government action to protect them from the potential of losing their savings and from economic shocks in the event that a bank run took down their local bank.

Bank owners weren't wholly supportive of the idea, but larger bankers, such as JP Morgan, were weary of stepping in (as during the crisis of 1907) in that sort of capacity as the lender of last resort to prevent a wider crisis.

Ron Paul goes on to suggest, "The laws of supply and demand work better than any central banker to determine both the correct supply of money in the economy and the interest rate at which capital is available- without the political favoritism and secrecy that characterize central banks. Americans should not tolerate the manipulation of our economy and the inflation of our currency by an unaccountable institution."

Again, at the risk of oversimplification on either side of the presentation, one must not lightly fob off the challenges of monetary- and market-based social structure as something most optimally governed by the "laws of supply and demand".

As excessive local demand (for cash) brought down banks that could not provide the supply, a new type of demand by constituents brought about change by the power of the same democratic process that Ron Paul is part of.

So the question I pose to the readers is as follows -- what post-modern corrective is he suggesting? A return to a gold standard?

At what fixed price per ounce would he recommend the government sponsor the new dollar with gold-backed convertibility?

Driven by supply and demand, any initial 100% gold-backed money supply would expand to a fractionally-backed system in which every bank is a bullion bank and the prices of everthing inflate (except, of course, the government's FIXED monetary price of gold) and bank runs wreak havoc the margins of the system and ruin both banks and individual depositors who lobby Congress for change.

Am I right is asking if this is what Ron Paul has in mind? Here we go again(?).

We have "been there and done that" and discovered a gold standard monetary (banking) system to be rife with flaws. Alternatively, can anyone point out a flaw in a gold property savings system -- a permanently 100% backed physical standard of tangible savings?


Golden LionheartGold up and running..............#1295222/22/05; 01:04:06

Don't miss the boat, the yellow metal is up and running in Australia today.
TownCrierSeen another way...#1295232/22/05; 01:28:54

Even though it is not completely free, semi-floating gold is rising in overnight markets.

If we were on a fixed gold standard, there would be no "fun" to be had watching the price rise in overnight markets. The price would be fixed.

If we were on a fixed gold standard, the only prices we could watch rise at this time would be the prices of everything else as the money supply gets inflated (and depreciated) all the same.

In order to keep up with this inflation, all the same, we would need to deposit all of our gold into the various banks in the hopes that we could earn some sufficiently offsetting interest while tossing and turning each night that tomorrow might be the day a bank run leaves us with nothing personally to show for our idealistically high-minded but unstable monetary standard.


TownCrierDollar falls as CB reserves shift concerns weigh#1295242/22/05; 02:09:07

LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) - The dollar fell one percent against the euro and yen on Tuesday as growing concerns that central banks were diversifying their reserves out of U.S. dollar assets pushed the greenback through key technical levels.

South Korea's central bank said on Monday it planned to diversify its currency reserves, which are the world's fourth largest, into a greater variety of currencies. Reserves have traditionally been held in U.S. Treasuries.

Bahrain's central bank governor told Reuters on Tuesday he saw a growing role for the euro in international reserves as Europe's economy starts to grow and capture a bigger part of world trade.

He added however the bank was in no hurry...

^----(from url)----^

Effective diversification is about having a position in place BEFORE it's needed. Otherwise, you're just chasing the crowd.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial and become a gold-owner today.


BelgianSimplification#1295252/22/05; 03:04:27

Whilst Greenspan-ism remains "publicly" succesful with its 25 years old sheme of semi-fixed-gold-exchange...that other fundamental, the oil-standard,...definitely started floating.

Soon, everybody will allow the dollar to float as free as a bird. No currency-snakes, tunnels or any other interventional "constructions" will be necessary. Happy floating.

GOLD...NOT ITS PRICE FLUCTUATIONS, will become the universal standard. Everything can then float free around the yellow sun. A universal standard of "STABILITY" wich will allow any competitive improvisation you can imagine.

I refer here again to gold having priced the euro as stable as can be, for the past 15 years.
The Greenspanists don't want the golden barbaric relic tell the dollar where its floating place (level) actually should be. Gold...the new (barbaric) goldmarket, will teach us how to fly with our respective floating fiats.

Let's ask the "barbarians" to leave the existing goldmarket alone and let anyone chose what he wants to offer in exchange for gold !!!
The oil-reserve holders are in the process of "generalizing" this idea. Barbaric...? Tyrranical...?

Sundeck(No Subject)#1295262/22/05; 03:50:38

Well this is getting interesting...

1. Putin says, a few days ago, that Iran's nuclear program is all about energy and nothing about bombs and that Russia has been helping Iran out lots and will continue to do so... (Interpretation: US irresistable force meets Russian immoveable object!)

2. Bush (all smiles...though not as pleasant as Condi's) continues the "charm offensive" in Europe - including a MONUMENTAL visit to Brussels to announce that the EU and the US are always going to be the best of buddies... (Interpretation: "Goddamn...that Euro-thing looks like it is gonna work after all!" Betta try to salvage the friendship and mitigate the effects of a declining dollar as best we can...and try to get the EU to realise that democracy...errr the Middle East is in all our (western) best interests).

3. Meanwhile China and Japan and other east-Asian countries build their dollar reserves, but with increasing diversity. (Interpretation: China and Japan et al. have enoungh dollars to buy their oil for ten years or more at current prices, should OPEC keep accepting dollars....BUT...we need some Euros and gold as well, for when the tide changes.)

4. Gold is building its persona/profile fairly dramatically in the mainstrem media. Thinking back three years, there was scarcely a mention of gold in the mainstream financial print - and that always deridingly. NOW, there is scarcely an issue that does not mention gold in some ever more strident/urgent/credible way. (Interpretation: Midas Greenspan may have a golden mind and a golden tongue, but he has feet of clay...its time he was asked to tend his Connecticut tomatoes and let someone else deal with the pieces...errr...peaces??)

5. The World's creditors are not prepared to sell Uncle Sam's shirt for a song (just yet). They realise that uncle Sam is an amazingly resourceful old coot and that the next big thing(s) might just occur in America. Better keep a supply of dollars handy so that we can play along, just in case...

...just thinkin out aloud...


BelgianIt is suggested that....#1295272/22/05; 03:56:54

...Greenspan is going to set an "inflation-target" !!!
To inflate means, "adding more" upon the existing.

The central banker of the world's reserve currency is telling us all that more reserves are getting worth less !!!

Can you keep making money as fast as the world's central banker is ? Can you run "faster" than the hungry lion of fiat/digit devaluation ?

$-POO=$50 €/$ = 1,3222. Watch the USDX Maginot line.

Belgian@Sundeck#1295282/22/05; 04:25:16

The most interesting of Bush's message in Brussels was...we (the US administration) want a strongly unified/unifying Euroland. Well, w'll wait and see if and when this statement will be made hard...through the UK (breakfast with Tony)!?
W'll see if Syrians out of Lebanon and France in ?
Not a single word on lifting the arms embargo on China.

How long... before the US starts taking in...euro-reserves ?
Then we can go both (US-EU) go to the ME with euro for oil and a stabilizing military force and all live happily together...Dream on Belgian.

PNBSore eyes#1295292/22/05; 05:43:22

Gee, it's been many a month since I have seen a rally in gold like today (so far).

I read an interesting article a few days ago.
Apparently the USD can not decline much further against the Euro/Yen/Pound without a banker led revolution in those countries.

The next signal for possible USD devaluation is supposed to be the break of the Yuan peg. My previous comments may be incorrect, about a sharp dip in Gold when the peg is moved.

Clink!Sore eyes indeed, PNB !#1295302/22/05; 06:27:20

POG up to the $6 limit already, and the NY market hasn't even opened yet.
Knallgold@PNB#1295312/22/05; 06:28:54

To rain on your parade: we have either 6$ rule in charge or it will be a 1 day wonder :-)
KnallgoldClink!#1295322/22/05; 06:33:43

Ah we Pavlovbugs...or was that dogs???
BoilermakerMK msg 129510 -try this- Greenspan as Macbeth#1295332/22/05; 07:58:26

Shakespeare's Macbeth could have been written about Greenspan, a man who once espoused the incorruptible concept of gold just as Macbeth risked life and limb in defense of his king Duncan. Change the subject, noble power (gold) to corrupt power (fiat), the murder of Duncan (removal of gold in 1971), continued murders to maintain power (gold cartel), the witch's prophesies "beware Macduff" (the Euro), "none of woman born will harm Macbeth" (Euro born of gold lineage) and "Macbeth will prevail until Birnam Wood come to Dunsinane Hill"(the Euro joins oil to defeat Greenspan and his fiat kingdom).
GoldiloxDollar crumbles as holiday ends#1295342/22/05; 09:35:51


By Leslie Wines, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:28 AM ET Feb. 22, 2005

NEW YORK ( MarketWatch) -- The U.S. dollar was under siege on Tuesday after reports overnight that South Korea's central bank may sell some of its U.S. currency reserves triggered a wave of dollar selling against the major currencies.


Now CNBC is investigating "suspicious" trades on NDS index, and Lt Sweet is over $50 again.

Quite a day so far, as even US protectorate So. Korea is giving in to "currency diversification".

GoldiloxChronology of recent miner takeover bids#1295352/22/05; 09:44:24


Following is a chronology of the large, attempted takeovers in the sector since the start of 2004 (values are at the time the transaction was announced):

March 30, 2004 - Iamgold Corp. ((IMG.TO)) makes friendly $2.2 billion bid for Wheaton River Minerals Ltd. ((WRM.TO)). The deal fails when Iamgold shareholders vote against it on July 6.

May 27, 2004 - Golden Star Resources Ltd. ((GSC.TO)) makes unsolicited $880 million bid for Iamgold. Golden Star lets its bid lapse on Aug. 16 after South Africa's Gold Fields Ltd. ((GFIJ.J)) unveils a "white knight" transaction with Iamgold.

May 27, 2004 - Coeur d'Alene Mines Corp. (CDE,Trade) makes unsolicited $1.7 billion bid for Wheaton River. The deal fails when Coeur is unable to get enough support from Wheaton shareholders before the bid expires on Sept. 30.

Aug. 11, 2004 - Iamgold makes friendly $2.1 billion bid for offshore assets of Gold Fields Ltd. ((GFIJ.J)). The deal fails when Gold Fields shareholders vote against it on Dec. 7.

Dec. 5, 2004 - Goldcorp Inc. ((G.TO)) makes friendly $2 billion bid for Wheaton River. Goldcorp shareholders back the deal on Feb. 10. Two-thirds of Wheaton shareholders need to tender their stock by Feb. 14 for the deal to pass.

Dec. 16, 2004 - Glamis Gold ((GLG.TO)) says it will make an unsolicited $3.4 billion bid for Goldcorp. Transaction fails when Goldcorp shareholders vote in favor of the Wheaton River deal on Feb. 10.


Strong activity in the gold-in-the-ground market, as big fish wanna eat middlesze and middlesize wanna gobble up little fish. Gulp!

Puplava has been calling for this for a couple years.

GoldiloxBush Praises Modest Pledge From NATO on Training Iraqi Forces#1295362/22/05; 09:57:07



Published: February 22, 2005


BRUSSELS, Feb. 22 - President Bush met with NATO leaders today about the alliance's future role in Iraq and was rewarded with a modest plan to train and equip Iraq's new Army and police .

``The NATO training mission is an important mission, because after all, the success of Iraq depends upon the capacity and the willingness of the Iraqis to defend their own selves against terrorists," Mr. Bush said at NATO headquarters here. . .

However, countries that opposed the Iraq war such as France and Germany indicated they would not send instructors there but rather would work outside the framework of this agreement to contribute toward the training of Iraqis.


Oft' touted as support for the US$, we get to see right away whether or not this rhetoric will curtail the fall of the USDX.

GoldiloxGS as Kal-El?#1295372/22/05; 10:11:08


How about GS as Superman?

Comex book hero who, as mild mannered reporter for the AYN RAND empire, glorified gold standard as a beacon of freedom, but in his mighty role as FED "man of steel", leads the bankster charge to debase the dollar and rescue banks from the vagaries of inflafla.

Too bad phone booths have gone the way of the dodo, leaving him no opportunity to change back.

Belgian@PNB#1295382/22/05; 10:11:11

Look at the rising South Korean won, PNB ! Rember that the S.Koreans asked the EU to, please, be paid (trade) in euro.
By the end of '05, the kiwi dollar will be at par with the US$.
All currencies stop to be a dollar's derivative. The killing competitive global currency devaluation is over.
The dollar will not be able to "export" inflation anymore...a unilateral declining dollar will "import" priceinflation into the US. The complete opposite reverse movement of the past 35 years.

ArcticfoxAnyone else just see Don Coxe on CNBC#1295392/22/05; 10:26:36

Stated that $US bear just beginning and commodities and metals place to be right now..
Gandalf the WhiteWHO let the "DOGS" out ? <;-)#1295402/22/05; 10:37:15


KnallgoldGoldstandard?#1295412/22/05; 10:42:00

From TC's #129521 : "Driven by supply and demand, any initial 100% gold-backed money supply would expand to a fractionally-backed system in which every bank is a bullion bank and the prices of everthing inflate ... ...We have "been there and done that" and discovered a gold standard monetary (banking) system to be rife with flaws..."

At the risk of teasing Ari a bit too much: is an honest Goldstandard not even a bit better than an "honest fiat" (Aristotle)?(I couldn't resist this one...)