USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

Electronic reproduction sourced from
The Invisible HandTrichet – the Nixon who goes to China?#11117511/1/03; 01:53:23

SNIPS from Professor Paul De Grauwe's column "Trichet will bring best practice to the ECB " published in the Financial Times on Thursday, June 19, 2003:
... strong individuals can sometimes make a difference
It is unclear whether Mr Trichet will want to change this part of the ECB's strategy [the raising of the inflation target to, say, 2.5 per cent or 3 per cent]. After all, he made his reputation forcing the rate of inflation in France down to the German level amid howls of protest from French politicians, economists and intellectuals. He stood firm and earned a reputation as a hard-nosed inflation fighter - quite a feat in France. Will he want to endanger this reputation by raising the inflation target? Or will he be the "Nixon who goes to China"? I expect that Mr Trichet will want to preserve his hard-fought reputation. But I may be wrong. Sometimes the quality of great leaders is to do the unexpected.

Nixon, the one who left gold
China, the one who's welcoming gold?
What's the relationship between Nixon and China?

The Invisible HandMartin Goldberg is blind#11117611/1/03; 03:35:10

and so is Tim Wood

Neither of them looks at the money supply figures which have been published on Thursday.

Granted, Tim writes
It's Still Brewing
The bearish pattern that I have been monitoring is currently still on track. The many technical indicators follow as well as my cycles works also confirms that something big is in deed brewing. For these reasons I believe that we are now relatively close to seeing a wonderful opportunity on the short side of this market materialize. As investors we must remain focused and patient. My strategy is to take positions in BLABLABLA

this to the surprise of Roland Leuschel's short column on what transpired on Thursday (PLEASE CORRECT MY TRANSLATION) under the title "A severe crash is awaiting us immediately"
Yesterday (Thursday), the super numbers for the third quarter have been published in America and the euphoria of the investors seems to have no limit. The numbers have reached a summit which has never been reached in the past (January 2000, September 2000 and August 1987). This fact only is a strong alarm sign.

For my short "dispositions"(??? sorry, I can't translate this)), I use the money supply figures in the US of A and these look even worse. At the end of last week M1 and M3 numbers have been published and those are catastrophical. The four week average of the US money supply M3 (minus $21 billion Dollar) is historically the worst number. I base my investment decisions on the MZM Money Supply numbers, whereby the four week average numbers have been very helpful in the past. When the number was above 10, this was an absolute buy signal for the stock-markets, and vice-versa when the number was under 5, stocks had to be sold. The last number, which I think has never been lower, is: 1.97 ! ... In other words, the Surprise-Party is finished. ..... I have more data to my disposal but I cannot refer to all of them here. But it is now clear what you have to do: look again at the marvellous data of yesterday, they won't come back soon. This was the weakest quarter since the first quarter of 1984. ....
Eine kräftige Kurskorrektur steht unmittelbar bevor!

Gestern wurden die Superzahlen über das dritte Quartal in Amerika veröffentlicht, und die Euphorie der Anleger scheint keine Grenzen zu kennen. Die Sentiments-Indikatoren in Amerika sind auf einem Stand angekommen, der alle Höhepunkte der Vergangenheit (Januar 2000, September 2000 und August 1987) übertrifft. Allein diese Tatsache ist ein starkes Alarmzeichen.

Für meine kurzfristigen Dispositionen benutze ich vor allen Dingen die Geldmengenzahlen der USA, und da sieht es noch viel schlimmer aus. Ende letzter Woche wurden M1 und M3 Zahlen veröffentlicht, und die sind echt katastrophal rückläufig. Beim 4-Wochendurchschnitt der US-Geldmenge M3 (- 21 Milliarden Dollar) entstand sogar der historisch schlechteste Wert. Meine Anlageentscheidung basiere ich allerdings auf die MZM Money Supply Zahlen, wobei die 4-Wochendurchschnitte in der Vergangenheit besonders hilfreich waren. Wenn die Kennzahl über 10 lag, war ein absoluter Kauf an den Aktienbörsen geboten, und umgekehrt bei einer Kennzahl unter 5 mussten Aktien verkauft werden. Die letzte Kennziffer, die mir zur Verfügung steht, ist historisch noch nicht dagewesen : 1,97 ! ... Mit anderen Worten die Surprise-Party geht zu Ende. ..... Es liegen mir noch viele andere Zahlen vor, auf die ich an dieser Stelle nicht eingehen kann. Aber das Fazit scheint klar : Schauen Sie sich die wunderbaren Zahlen von gestern an, sie werden so schnell nicht wiederkommen. Es waren die höchsten Quartalszuwächse seit dem ersten Quartal 1984. ....

geECB's Otmar Issing on imbalances and adjustments#11117711/1/03; 05:20:29

---the following quote is most amusing---
"Paraphrasing a statement, which former US Treasury Secretary Connolly made with respect to the US currency, one could summarise this view as "It may be our deficit, but it is your problem." "

geBank of England to Lift Rates Next Week, NIESR Says#11117811/1/03; 05:26:44

Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of England will raise its benchmark rate next week for the first time in more than 3 1/2 years as economic growth picks up, the National Institute of Economic & Social Research predicted.
TopazOdd Halloween action.#11118011/1/03; 05:40:05

Despite a fairly solid rebound in $Cash, both Gold and Bonds failed to react as expected. The contracting M's could throw a spanner in the works next week and it will be interesting to note how the PaperGold crowd reacts.

Congratulations contest winners and thanks again Gandy, MK etal for your ceaseless generosity.

misetichReality Check: US Auto Dealers Report Sharp October Downturn Oct 31 / 9:07 EST#11118111/1/03; 08:08:56


NEW YORK, Oct. 31 (MktNews) - U.S. car dealers are reporting a sharp dropoff in car sales for October, dragged down by extraordinarily weak demand in California, by far the nation's most important market.
Two factors specific to Southern California depressed sales: a tripling of the state's auto license fee, which on Oct. 1 restored the unpopular tax to its former level, and the California wildfires that are proving to be a huge distraction to consumers, say dealers throughout the state.

Last week, GM offered a rebate to consumers intended to counteract the new license tax, but apparently to little avail so far.

California's economy is moribund - Cali represents one of the top 10 economies worlwide and its going nowhere.

Housing bubble, refinancing has kept consumer spending up. Many hope that the Terminator will turn things around and many more who have tied their retirement savings to the SM are hoping for a turnaround of the US economy

Hope and prayer are usually terms associated with third world economies

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetichTrick or Treat? Japanese Ministry of Finance data shows they bought about $25.0 billion dollars in the month of October#11118211/1/03; 08:19:47


On the international front, Japanese Ministry of Finance data shows they bought about $25.0 billion dollars in the month of October. That follows purchases of about $59.0 billion from July to the end of September but there was no intervention during August.

This clearly argues against claims that intervention activity has been scaled back since the G7 meeting!

All economists now expect the Bank of England to hike the repo rate by 25 bps to 3.75% following the Nov. 5-6 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, a survey by Market News International showed Friday.

Interestingly during the same period the Yen appreciated in value against the US from the line in the sand at 1.15 to lower than 1.10

How long can Japan and other Asian countries can keep adding to their massive US $ reserves? and simulteneously see their portfolio value shrink

What a gamble on their part? Usually bubbles of this nature burst sooner than later. Time is ticking....tick..tick..

Would hate to be a holder of US $ investments

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetichChina looks to EU as 'biggest partner'#11118311/1/03; 08:35:01


The EU and China have strengthened their increasingly close relationship with the signing of two important agreements in Beijing on October 30.
Chinese Prime Minister, Wen Jiabao, told a joint news conference after the summit: "We hope the European Union will become our biggest partner in economic and trade relations".
In the hope of boosting the number of wealthy Chinese tourists visiting Europe, the EU has decided to relax its visa restrictions for the country.

EU is exploiting the US "hardliners" oppressive agenda of Neo-Cons and fermenting relationships with countries such as China, Iran, Russia

It could very well be EU and US could be playing good/bad cop routine and 'suckering' outsiders - though higly unlikely

The mellow approach being implemented by EU has thus far worked effectively and the Euro market share as a world reserve currency has grown by at least 10% and is poised for larger gains

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Mr Gresham"Reasons to own..." file#11118411/1/03; 09:10:47

"The oldest person in the world, Kamato Hongo, died on Friday aged 116, ...

"Hongo's death comes a month after the world's oldest man, Yukichi Chuganji, passed away at his home on the same Japanese island aged 114.

"Japan is one of the world's most rapidly aging societies, with one in five citizens now aged 65 or over, the highest percentage among industrialized nations. Scientists have attributed Japanese longevity to factors including diet and exercise."

Good country to be over 65 in, eh? Japan, Asia, respect for elders, etc. Hope they still have that tradition in full effect for the rest of them. Have we ever had it -- not like them for sure -- but we better hope there's some respect for elders comes along to cover our rears when SS implodes. (I remember hearing about those elders freezing in their apartments in remote Russia when their social insurance funds disappeared. If they didn't have family nearby, who cared for them...)

"Demographics is destiny" -- where have I heard that lately. Demographics becomes tragedy? It's occurred to me, on a particularly lazy day, to head over to Walmart and see the elderly greeters, and imagine that those jobs aren't even there when we get to that age. (Oooo, what a gloomy Gus I is this morning -- gotta go...)

Federal_ReservesGDP growth 7.2% ????#11118511/1/03; 09:33:15

GDP growth 7.2% ????

Sorry if I keep harping on this and thanks for that G.Ure GDPeee posting link. Very enlightening on the statistical fraud presented to us in this statistic.

YOY nominal GDP increased $532.2 billion, or 5.1%, to $11.04 Trillion, subtracting from
that growth rate take the CPI growth YOY of 2.4% (most likely understated by 1-2%) you only have
a growth of 1-2%, maybe nothing. You can't use the FED deflator on GDP, its a joke.

The FED for its part, warned about deflation. While industrial commodity prices are indeed soaring (see link) the world seems awash in cheap labor. Last month, the BLS reported that average weekly wages fell for the first time in 14 months BEFORE inflation.

Money supply numbers are tracking lower, as others have noted, specifically the amount of money stored in retail bank accounts (money funds, cd's). This indicates deflationary forces are at work.

DruidThe Invisible Hand (11/1/03; 03:35:10MT - msg#: 111176)#11118611/1/03; 09:47:11

Druid: IVH, last week there was a really interesting discussion concerning interest rates and I was going to comment but decided not too because I realized that in the area of credit creation, and thus the determining of interest rates along the yield curve, "modern finance" has pleomorphed and hijacked a part of classical economic thinking regards the subject. Trying too figure out the ratio of each or where one begins and the other ends is by no means an easy task. At least not for yours truly.

When I refer to classical economic thinking in this instance, I mean as it pertains to the role of the FED and those components that make up the "money supply." As I was referring back to my notes of some 13 years ago and began constructing some supply demand graphs to represent various yield curves of different maturities, I realized that when listing the components of the supply curve representing the suppliers of credit, I got stuck and had to change a lot of assumptions. Well, to say the least, this is still a major work in progress because in the past all I had to do was look at the banking & Fed data and I could get a pretty good snapshot of what was going on and where the economy and markets were headed.

Years ago the physical economy was the healthy body and thus the dominant causation of created value by means of ingenious innovation and steady production. There was a virus around(finance) but the body(economy) held it at bay and when confronted with a cold could recover without missing a beat. However, today, the virus has ramped and morphed(all under the guise of "efficiency") into something deadly and overtaken the body and this is where we're at. Nolan over at the Bear is chronicling this evolution in real time and sometimes can't find the words to describe this insanity. I'm still trying to wrap my brain around this situation so I can come up with my own visual to understand what is transpiring right before my eyes.

I apologize for getting off track but my main premise is that the "money supply" may not be the indicator of old and is becoming more and more obscure.



It has been fascinating to witness truly historic financial evolution over the past decade. I have often attempted to explain how the Fed, GSEs and Wall Street have evolved to the point of having mastered the art of liquefying the market-based U.S. Credit system – Liquidity on Demand in Grand Excess. The nexus of this unparalleled power lies in the capacity for virtually unlimited GSE liability creation – insatiable demand for (implicitly guaranteed) GSE debt that can be issued in gross excess with no impact on perceived creditworthiness or investor demand (the "moneyness" of GSE liabilities); the Fed's capacity/audacity to peg short-term interest rates significantly below market rates; the explosion of aggressive leveraged speculation; and, of course, the dollar's role as international reserve currency. These provided a confluence of powerful forces unlike anything experienced in monetary or financial history.

This monetary/liquidity mechanism gained deserved credibility from rectifying the tumultuous market episodes of 1994, 1998, 1999, 2001, and 2002 experiences. Over the past several months, this "mastery" has been absolutely flaunted. Credit, liquidity and speculative excesses were taken to a whole new level. Interest rates began to shoot higher in July. Quickly, the highly leveraged and speculation-rife bond and interest-rate derivative markets faltered in near dislocation. But from July through September, Fannie and Freddie expanded their mortgage portfolios by the then unprecedented $160 billion (compared to the 2nd quarter's $13.3 billion increase). Problem "resolved."

It is worth briefly rehashing the dynamics of GSE "liquefication." Today, the system is acutely vulnerable to rising interest rates. For one, we face unprecedented leveraged speculation that would be forced into problematic liquidation in the event of a significant and sustained rise in interest rates. Second, there is great systemic risk associated with asset Bubble dynamics (especially throughout mortgage finance) and exceptionally weak debt structures after years of poor and excessive lending (Minsky's "Ponzi Finance"). Third, there is this incredible interest-rate derivatives monster that expands with each new day of Credit and speculative excess. The GSEs, speculators, and other financial operators have purchased derivative protection against rising rates. Sellers of unfathomable quantities of "insurance" must "dynamically hedge" their exposure in the event of rising rates -- they are forced to sell/short Treasuries, agencies and other debt instruments into a declining market to establish positions that would generate the required cash-flow to pay Fannie, Freddie and all the rest in the event of a sustained jump in rates.

It is simply difficult to comprehend how our Credit system could avoid dislocation (a liquidity crisis) in the event of sharply higher rates. Everyone knows as much. Yet there is apparently no cause for concern. The Fed, GSEs and Wall Street have mastered the art of manipulating market rates and liquidity. With the first serious episode of spiking rates/speculator liquidation/derivative-related selling, the GSEs immediately commence the ballooning of their balance sheets (buying mortgages and other debt instruments). This accomplishes several crucial things; I'll touch quite briefly on a few. First, it provides the leveraged players a "Buyer of First and Last Resort," thus emboldening the community and keeping them in the game (no liquidation allowed!). Second, by aggressively acquiring mortgage-backed securities, GSE operations mitigate the amount of (duration) hedging that would otherwise be required by holders of these securities in a rising rate environment. And, most importantly, by capping the interest-rate rise, GSE liquidity operations greatly allay the amount of systemic derivative selling that would be necessary if rates were to jump sharply. Or, stated differently, the JPMorgans and Citigroups of the world, with their huge and growing interest-rate derivative positions, can sleep soundly at night with the confidence that the Fed and GSEs enjoy the capacity to manipulate rates lower at their discretion. With this – a guarantee of continuous and liquid markets, along with "pegged" low rates – a flourishing interest rate derivative market becomes viable. The key Credit Bubble perpetrators - the expansive Fannie, Freddie and speculator community - are advanced the cheap insurance necessary to ensure continued rapid growth. It's like buying flood insurance in an environment where the insurance community can carefully control the amount of rainfall.

A truly amazing system has evolved over time. And, let there be no doubt, "The Community" has ably and repeatedly demonstrated its capacity to regulate the amount of "rainfall"/interest rates/liquidity. The Fed can peg short-term rates at 1% and orchestrate a steep yield curve; the GSEs can sit back with the capacity to create enormous liquidity on demand; the leverage speculators can bet with reckless abandon; the financial sector can expand without limitation; inexhaustible liquidity can fuel real estate and securities inflation and resulting economic expansion; and the interest-rate derivative players can write unbounded policies with confidence that rates will simply not be allowed to shoot higher. All the while, the Credit system can expand aggressively with little concern for the endless supply of new dollar financial claims created. A Trillion here and a Trillion there, and there's no downside. Speculative demand for securities will meet the ballooning supply, with little if any impact on the "controlled" interest rate markets. Cheap and plentiful Liquidity on Demand Forever!! A truly historic "achievement."

This manipulation has an enviable track record, working so splendidly so many times. But there is a flaw and this failing is and will remain the focal point of my analysis. And this serious flaw goes right to the heart of A True Paradigm Shift. Yes, U.S. interest rates are today controllable and this reality does wonders for the entire fragile financial system and hopelessly distorted U.S. economy. And domestic demand for the endless supply of new Credit – inflated dollar financial claims - can be orchestrated by an expanding U.S. financial sector. But the flaw? Its Wildness Lies in Wait out there in the increasingly distrustful and less compliant global financial arena. The Almighty Fed, the Commanding GSEs and A Powerful Wall Street are today simply not well endowed when it comes to the capacity to manipulate global demand for Bubble Dollar Balances.

The bottom line is that, despite its repeated "successes," this New Age Financial Control Mechanism ("The Great Experiment") has not really been tested. Contemporary U.S. interest-rate/liquidity manipulation basically evolved over the King Dollar period 1995 through early 2002. The confluence of inflating U.S. asset prices, an outperforming economy, international high regard for the U.S. generally, and the impaired global financial system, worked to effortlessly recycle the rising flood of U.S. dollar balances right back to U.S. markets. There was absolutely no limit – no domestic or global constraints – on the amount of Credit creation (dollar claims inflation) generated during these U.S. liquefications. The liquidity jubilantly found its way right back to U.S. assets: the late nineties direct investment boom; the technology and U.S. stock market mania; and the Treasury/agency/"structured finance" securities Bubble. The ease of "recycling" dollar balances – of which everyone has grown so accustomed - was a most seductive aberration.

There are a few dynamics worth pondering. First, with the demise of King Dollar comes significantly reduced private demand for U.S. real and financial assets. Nowadays, relative performance of Non-dollar assets gains by the week, exacerbating Non-dollar financial flows. Second, Credit Bubble dynamics dictate (and recent GSE balance sheet ballooning provides evidence) that Credit excess (dollar financial claims inflation) must expand at an accelerating pace to support both levitated U.S. asset prices (real and financial) and an increasingly distorted Bubble economy. Thus, the dynamic of ebbing global demand and the accelerating flow of dollar claims pose a not inconspicuous dilemma. Importantly, however, global central banks have for the past year filled the void. This is not sustainable, and it is worth noting that dollar demand has been supported during this period by strong financial markets and a strengthening economy. Things can easily get much worse, and I would warn that there is a major problem with the markets complacency regarding the risk associated with dollar weakness.


A little more off topic from the money supply, Belgian, I'd like to read about what you think about Putin locking up one of the top oil Execs. Could it be that Putin is clearly drawing a demarcation line between the government and the private interests? If Putin is leaning toward the Euro and the Euro is supposed to represent a paradigm shift in the "thoughts" of a "free" gold, then is Putin considering the many over the few? TIA.

Belgian@Druid#11118711/1/03; 11:39:51

The Yukos (Sibneft) affair is only the top of a very complicated (multifaceted) iceberg. My two cents on it...
It is Germany who is counseling Putin in Russian affairs.
Russian resources for Euroland AND China under the growing euro-system umbrella.
Shroder recently stated that he wants Kroatia in EMU, asap.
Schroder wants Russia to bring its internal energy-distribution in line with Euroland's taxing model and raise energyprices.
But it remains difficult to amalgame Russia and China different cultures. China is maneuvering as to make the US lose face, but Russia and Germany still have some opportunistic Atlantic (dollar) symphaties. The tree other oil/gas Russian oligarchs already left Russia, 2 for the UK and 1 for Israel. The dollar was trying (still is) to get Russian resources under its wings !!! And it is here that the conflicting interests make things very difficult. Because of the dollar-euro factions, facing each other, over enormous reserves of resources.
This provokes internal power-struggles (camp-chosing US-EU) in Russia itself.

Russia is divided on the difficult bargaining-balancing between its Iraqi interests and the managenment of its own resources.

In much simplier terms...The US, Euroland, Russia, Middle East and China do evolve in geopolitical terms, around oil/gas resources and euro or dollar-system(standard).
These struggles meet a lot of conflicting interests at many levels (personal, national, political, financial, monetary, military...etc. )

Keep on watching and bet on the final outcome with the tangible of your choice.

GoldendomeFine discussion today on the Financial News Network#11118811/1/03; 13:23:10

If your computer has "talking" capability there is a wonderful round table discussion today on Puplava's Financial News Network. Participants are R. Prector, Tim Woods, Peter Eliades, and Kennedy Gammage.

Some Highlights: All of the guests see a soon to be rapid correction in the stock markets now that the 7.2% fictional growth in GDP is in the books. The only place to go is down after that. The one-off stimulus of tax rebates (spent), Refi. cash backs declining, and continueing unemployment problems signalling stagnating consumer demand-- all pointing to a top.

Complacency and euphorish bull market outlooks usually signal a "suprise" to the downside.

Outlook for Gold was mixed. Prechter remains uncommittal. He says he's not Bull nor Bear, but waiting to see how a severe downturn in market liquidity will effect Gold(Physical)--If it reacts along with other commodities to the downside, then he would continue his neutral to negative stance. A seperation from other commodities to the positive Bull in Gold and he probably, belatedly jumps aboard. Tim Woods also was non-committal at this point on Gold.

Peter Eliades and K. Gammage were much more up beat right now about the Gold metal market (physical). Peter saying the Gold Bull is moving slowly right now, but as it was a long drawn out Bear, he also feels the Bull will be slow in developing.

All of these commentators feel that the U.S. faces a long term drawn out depression style down turn, that will be very nasty to some degree.

They pointed out the dishonesty in the stock market numbers-earnings, etc. The real-estate market with the huge loan packages now securitized in mutual fund, insurance, and retirement portfolios, were pointed to as booby traps in unsuspecting "safe" portfolios. And the derivatives that overhang all the markets now. All these men felt a real estate market downturn could well be what brings down everything, ultimately.

ALL-- of these individuels advocate holding Physical Gold to some degree in a non-tradable perspective. Again, ALL of them.

Mining Stocks-- were talked about, and they say fine to play with, but be prepared to trade them for the metal itself. This leads me to wonder, are we now approaching a point where we who own some mining stock should be selling as this bear market rally in stocks petersout? We have seem the Gold stock mutual funds and indexes continue to rise with the general stock market even as Gold has oscilated in value between $370 and $390 here the past 3 weeks. Are the Gold Stocks going to top out and crash, if the general stock market slides? Opinions?


21mabryGdome#11118911/1/03; 13:34:29

I have some nice profits in my miners stocks.I have been seriously thinking about selling and use profits for physical.Some things that have kept me from it are I do not want to be taxed on short term gains,I can not accept that quality mining stocks will be treated like trash tech stocks in a downturn,and someone whos opinion I respect insists that after physical position is established miners offer huge potential in profits.I am considering my options.21
Druid@Belgian#11119011/1/03; 13:48:29

Druid: Belgian thanks for the reply. Lewis over at "Chaos-onomics" is planning on addressing this issue a little deeper. He started too and as you read what I posted, something came up. I'm looking forward to what he has to say as I agree with you that this is only the "tip" of the iceberg. Richard Perle's quote below does not surprise me the least bit. It's hell just trying to keep up with and figure out what our political, economic and financial architects are up too, much less, the rest of the worlds. It appears that everywhere the dollar faction tries to gain some ground, the ground keeps shifting and moving. King dollar, a real hot potato these days.


Oct 31: Russia should be excluded from the G-8. No [other] G-8 country is allowed to treat its leading businessmen the way Russia treated Khodorkovsky. I believe Russia is moving fast in the wrong direction. - Richard Perle ex-Chairman, Pentagon Defense Policy Board

Green arrows again this morning, the totem has spoken. While we wait to hear just what kind of Kool-Aid is being dispensed down in the lower reaches of Manhattan to achieve such a remarkable distortion of reason, I thought to take a look at events over in Russia. As most readers are aware, over the weekend Russian authorities arrested the CEO of Yukos Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Yesterday the same authorities froze some 44% of Yukos shares, according to the Moscow Times. This move, however, is not the first of its kind in recent history. A pattern is beginning to emerge even to those of us viewing events dimly through the medium of the internet. The oligarchs are one by one being tossed out of Russia, or thrown in jail. Let's speculate a bit about possible causes and effects of this shift in Russian policy.

....Oops, the wife has car trouble so it looks like I'll have to get back to this later today or tomorrow.

Belgian@Druid#11119111/1/03; 15:39:10

To the ordinary Russian people, it is all very clear, for quite some time already : Russia is looted and being plundered by internationalists !
Those Russian (?) resource-oligarchs are only strow-men and arrived at their billionaire status with the backing of internationalists who invented, organized and are profitting from the so called, liberalization for public consumption (East German reunification concepts-public's participation coupons in privatization).
This is very embarassing for Germany, since they co-operated with the US strategos (internationalists) on the Balkan pipeline corridors as to transport Russian resources to Euroland and China. (German troops in Afghanistan)

These (geopolitical) events do influence the establishment of the euro (euro-acceptance and use-Russia) outside Euroland and consequently the relationship between euro and dollar vis à vis the rest of the planet, outside US and EU. That's how this oligarch/Putin business relates, indirectly to Gold.

All media are now heavely involved (engaged) in extreme political perception building. It's getting worse by the day ! There are an increasing lot of very ugly things to hide these days. A struggle between the good and the bad...heavely related to the evolving dollar and euro-block formations, dancing around the utmost importance of the strategic resource reserves AND their defenses. None of the authoritive observators are allowed to make these links.

Impossible to speculate on the coming turns an twists. Will/can Putin survive and at what cost (compromise) ?
Can the dollar continue to impose its supremacy ad infinitum ? Is the UK organizing another wave of euro-bashing ? etcetera,...and so on,...und so weiter,...enzovoort,....

CometoseJ Douglass Editorial /; 16:32:45

THIS is an open and scathing expose LETTER to Donald Rumsfeld about the interesting correaltions between todays war on Terrorism and the the war in VIETnam and DONALDS culpability in both venues......It's very revealing in its' assertions and inuendo as to RUSSIAS continued involvement in the support and training of our enemies...addressing the failure of our intelligence community to be awake and proactive in this area....etc etc etc...The motives and causes that are exhibited to us rarely have anything to do with whose doing what and what the real agenda is in the ongoing games being played behind the scenes.....the actions last week against YUKOS on the heels of Putin's EURO remarks are very telling......

Perhaps the people at YUKOS were getting ready to soak that company and pull another ENRON.......hmmmmmm......GUT THE COMPANY>>> I think the 87Billion package to rebuild IRAQ is another Enron move on a Public SECTOR BASIS>.....All bushes buddies and Carlisle GROUP get to Pass GO and collect .......DON"T worrry , it's only paper.....peach colored paper now.......I would say that "In the FOOTSTEPS OF GIANTS" (postings of ANOTHER).....right now is worth "ANOTHER" read and it may go very providential that this FORUM and the Information made known here fell on us in the timely manner in which it did........

CometoseTHANK YOU #11119311/1/03; 16:38:54


Great Albino BatThe GAB checks in from Vienna...#11119411/1/03; 17:04:40

Intuitions of the GAB, regarding Putin's move to jail Jodorkowski and freeze 44% of shares in Yukos oil empire:

The GAB read the article on this event in the Financial Times. The FT was frantic! Putin's move is outrageous, money is going to leave Russia in droves, this is a death blow to Russia's development, all confidence will be shattered if Putin does not repent soon! Etc., etc. (The words above, are GAB's paraphrase of the article's words)

Well, well. If the FT is so upset, this means that Putin's actions are not favorable to the US/British block, alias the Dollar. If they are not favorable to the US/British block, the GAB infers that they are favorable to the EU.

The GAB can imagine that Putin checked this out with Schoeder of Germany, some time ago.

This move might be a preliminary to Euro pricing of oil by Russia. Jodorkowski was your internationalist mogul, The GAB very much doubts he is Russian at all, as Belgian insinuates. This move is a consolidation of oil control by Russia, taking it back from the "internationalists", who were planning to continue selling for Dollars, probably.

Just intuitions. The frantic denunciations of the FT are a giveaway as to who is getting hurt by Putin.


Belgian@cometose#11119511/1/03; 17:23:32

Allow me to emphasize your insights with the following : In less than a week, it has become very (conveniently) trendy to compare the Iraq situation with Vietnam. Total nonsense of course and therefore another piece of evidence on the real fundamentals in the hidden agendas. Iraq is not another Vietnam but a second Israel/Palestine model that has been outlined (manufactured). Argumentation, on this, would bring us too far away from the Gold matters in sé.

Also note that within Russia, there are 25 million moslims !
More in dept analyses of geopolitico stratego, can be found in the writings of the German observator, P. Sholl-Latour, an *independant* expert/observator on these matters.

Remember those days of the "cold war" intriges. Those same power-wars are to be continued with the variant tool of WOT. The same intrigants (and their expertise) are hired for the job. Only one Big difference...the old alliances risk to break up and change camp. That counts in particular for Euroland. To euro or not to euro...FREEGOLD or dollar-gold !? Further concertation on the dollar-standard or not !?

The euro must give evidence of being able to "STABILIZE" the International Monetary System under deteriorating circumstances !!! That's the name of the game that's being played, imvho of course. Oil-matters have increasingly become, currency-matters.

Note, that the newly elected (?) UK Tory leader should openly confirm his (Thatcherite)euro-scepticism as most important quality. A conditio sine qua non ! Evidence of the theory, no ?

phil288Goldendome#11119611/1/03; 18:55:34

If you back up a little and look at the big picture we are in a long term bull market for physical gold, and "Things" in general for that matter. As such it is natural that the unhedged miners of AU and AG will appreciate as it becomes clear that much of the supply demand price increase will drop to the companies' bottom line. All this activity / profit is fine until the rise threatens the politicians at which point they will take action to reign in the profits. No one knows when this would happen, so those who wish to invest or speculate in gold or silver stocks would be well advised to continually take money off the table as these stocks appreciate.
If you decide to cash out, where are you going to put the fiat profits,certainly not in depreciating dollars? Thus logic speaks to laddering out of stocks into our host's gold and silver bullion as profits are achieved.
Ultimately we are all going to be better off with bullion, probably closely held; but an opportunity exists after your core holding in bullion is secure, to invest in producers and opportunistically take profits as you go along. In my opinion physical metal in hand should always be the main focus. Taxes,long or short term, should not be considered when wishing to take profits. Got Gold!

Ten BearsMoney supply matters#11119711/1/03; 21:10:55

Exponential Growth vs. Fed Funds Rate
28 October 2003

Originally posted at: Gold is Money

The light blue horizontal lines are just to point out the relationship between rates and MZM...

Rates rise and MZM contracts...Rates are lowered and MZM expands...

Debt backed by debt Fractional reserve banking, to be sustained from this point means that MZM growth must grow faster and faster exponentally like it has been since the early 60's...

Can Rates be dropped past zero faster and faster exponentally faster and faster?

The answer is NO...that is impossible...

But to sustain the current reality MZM must begin moving straight up...forever...

1776 to 1991 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 215 years

1991 to 2000 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 9 years

2000 to 2003 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 3 years

So from now until the end of 2004 MZM must grow by 2 Trillion and after that it must grow by 2 Trillion in 3 months then 1 month then 1 week then 3 days then 1 day then 8 hours then 2 hours then less than an hour and so on and so forth until we are down to nanoseconds and beyond...

Or the System will collapse...the end

Try all you want to deny it...the dawn of economic doomsday is upon us...

Ten BearsEconomic Efficiency#11119811/1/03; 21:32:41

snip> "The reality of the economist's political agenda is a curious mixture of politics and efficiency: "political efficiency". Economists are trained to believe that "money" has nothing to do with politics and is simply a medium of exchange. But even the casual observer can see that money is social power because it "empowers" people to buy and do the things they want -- including buying and doing other people:"
silvercollectorTen Bears#11119911/1/03; 21:45:17

"....Or the System will collapse....."


silvercollectorTen Bears#11120011/1/03; 21:49:58

Is your 'depressionTv' link okay? The 'syntax' appears incorrect?
Ten BearsSilvercollector #11120111/1/03; 21:59:10

I used the sharelynx site..It worked earlier.. Try sharelynx and then down to depression Tv.
Ten BearsOriginal quote from depression 2 tv#11120211/1/03; 22:14:00

Exponential Growth vs. Fed Funds Rate
28 October 2003

Originally posted at: Gold is Money

The light blue horizontal lines are just to point out the relationship between rates and MZM...

Rates rise and MZM contracts...Rates are lowered and MZM expands...

Debt backed by debt Fractional reserve banking, to be sustained from this point means that MZM growth must grow faster and faster exponentally like it has been since the early 60's...

Can Rates be dropped past zero faster and faster exponentally faster and faster?

The answer is NO...that is impossible...

But to sustain the current reality MZM must begin moving straight up...forever...

1776 to 1991 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 215 years

1991 to 2000 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 9 years

2000 to 2003 MZM growth 2 Trillion in 3 years

So from now until the end of 2004 MZM must grow by 2 Trillion and after that it must grow by 2 Trillion in 3 months then 1 month then 1 week then 3 days then 1 day then 8 hours then 2 hours then less than an hour and so on and so forth until we are down to nanoseconds and beyond...

Or the System will collapse...the end

Try all you want to deny it...the dawn of economic doomsday is upon us...

Rates across the spectrum must crash to sustain growth...Mortgage rates especially...and that will only buy a few more months to live in "THE GOOD OLD DAYS"

Peek at the Commercial and Industrial Loans Chart at all Commercial Banks. The chart indicates demand for Commercial and Industrial Loans have never recovered from the 2001 recession and continue to slide lower and lower. An ominous sign to say the least.........

Business Loans 1

Even more revealing is the 2000 to 2003 chart below:

Business Loans 2

"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon."
--Robert H. Hamphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank

Consumer loans look to be topping out....uh oh!

Consumer Loans

The argument for real estate investment is a good one, or should I say "has been" a good one since 1947......percentage of new real estate loans from prior year is turning down indicating a possible top is in the making for real estate loans and growth.

Real Estate Loans

Total Loans and Investments at all Commercial Banks moving sideways with prior annual percentage in strong decline.

Total Loans

Looks like deflation dead ahead to me! How say you?


GoldiloxIndian Jewelry Exports Up#11120311/1/03; 22:22:41

Gem & jewellery exports up

CHENNAI NOV. 1. Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council, India's apex body for the gem and jewellery industry, announced a record half yearly growth of 13.61 per cent with total industry exports touching $47.85 billion (Rs. 22,247.04 crores) (provisional) compared to $ 42.12 billion (Rs. 20,471.07 crores) during the same period last year. This was in spite of exports dropping to a record low of 8 per cent due to SARS and the Iraq War in April, which affected the global economy drastically.

GoldiloxTaxes on Profits#11120411/1/03; 22:42:15


I failed to sell a zillion options in my tech startup (in 2000-2001) so I could wait for long-term capital gains. However, by trying to save 15% in taxes, I lost 85% in value. WAY OOOOPPS!

My tax man reminded me of the following axiom: "Never make GAIN sale decisions based strictly on tax liability. The only sales decisions that should be for tax reasons are year-end LOSERS."

Timing is much better determined by P&L. Render unto Caesar and enjoy your bottom line growth!! You only pay taxes when you profit.


KnallgoldKhodorkovsky#11120511/2/03; 04:25:56

The front in this huge currency war is said (FOA) to go along the lines $/IMF/USAnglo/antiGold versus euro/BIS/ECB/FreeGold.Nationality of the participants is not helpful to understand on which side they stand as the front is going through the midst of our society (example Köhler/IMF).The powerelite (pandagold) is international anyway.

Observing this battle the last years I got the impression the Zionists are being assigned to the $-camp,the Khodorkovsky case Another example here.The currency war IS centering around black Gold and its preferred currency:Yukos deals in oil,and Putin made his preference to the euro side clear.Khodorkovsky is jewish (see link,capitel about The Oligarchs) and seems to be attributed to the $ internationalists (I heard Kissinger plead Putin to release him from jail).

For someone like me who just wants to find the truth on whats going on, its important to speak also about this.I remember pandagolds writings about "there is no new world order,the world is governed since centuries by the same elite".

He specifically claimed an increasing fear of many Israelites and Jews (panda is also jewish),people who,like most of us,just want to live their live: they fear of new attacks to them,as scapegoats for dirty dealings by as increasingly found out to be Zionists'simplyfied then as "the Jews".

Pandagold once wrote a post (not on a Goldforum I think,google btw finds lots of writings by him):"do you believe in justice? I do! Then something of the tune "Otherwise there would be no God and we could stop our civilisation".

In another post: "never underestimate the euro.Never!"

It left me rather confused to be honest.But I begin to see a picture: this organised "transition" $-->euro,from old and sick to new and prosper is also a transition from bad to good (at least in the propaganda).

So the old must be painted as the bad:overspending,full of excesses (now watch all those decadent TV programs!),hegemonial,war lusty,Goldhating,linked partially to a "Zionist Mafia",painting all arabs as extremists,buying gasguzzlers and wasting a valuable resource etc

I think this is to a large part a genuine process to shed an old layer of skin and guarantee the Judeo-Christian "Abendland" the surviving,probably leading to a new round of prosperity/high culture in Europe/Eurasia.It surely will be more intertwined with Russia/Arabia/China(?),I don't forget the long term agenda of the PE...

Ever wondered why FOA said "conservative people should buy Gold now"?Like "lets get rid of socialits,true conservatives to the power"?His "are you a hard money socialist?" is already legendary,it certainly converted ME to FreeGold...

The silent majority starts to speak up,the pattern is becoming visible at least here in Switzerland'some interesting political developments,right after the last criteria "Silver was above and held 5"(panda).

So,is the PE ready?It should be seen in other european countries also,but you still have to watch closely.The road is getting more bumpy now'surely,and many will lose in this transition.But then,they are probably losers and stuck in the old habits-a hard but healthy and necessary part in this process.

Hope I'm not too optimistic here,certainly I enjoy having a seat in the front row in this drama.Have a nice Sunday!

Belgian@Knallgold#11120611/2/03; 07:18:22

Interesting post, Sir. Allow me to reflect on it.
Two main streams of thoughts are developping, rapidly :

1/ Those who wish (strive) that ever more dollars are added to the global dollar-system as to continue the old (dis)order being operative.

2/ Those who wish to sail away from the aging dollar-system and timidly challenge it, for the time being.

And as always a (rather "the") third group of percepted uninvolved compromisers, floating between the 3 major currency blocks around the "one" $-system to be challenged. This are the Internationalist Intrigants (opportunists) who have the habit of always trying to eat from two plates. The more parties that are involved into a fight, the more there needs to be serviced, profitably.

Simplier : Encourage AND complicate, at the same time, the dollar > euro transition on wich you agree that it might (highly probable) be an improvement of the existing International Monetary ($)System. An intelligent strategy, regardless of how paradoxal this might seem !

Take the UK's stance on EMU as example for the mentioned paradoxes (= seemingly contradictions).
Another example is the justification of the Iraq occupation as to solve the Palestinian (and the whole ME) problem. The occupation will aggravate (purposely) the already existing problem, but is the perfect acceptable cover up of the real hidden agenda !
Much Less transparent are the CB goldreserve (UK in particular) reschufflings as to how paradoxal these operations are.

It is the function of the International Intrigants of making things (wars and peace) happen. The intrigants are in the business of creating as much food-plates as possible. I don't believe in an "elite" as such, but more in many different soldiers with specific tasks in the ant colony.

For example, Sharon (soldier) in Moscou (third time).

For wich currency (dollar-euro) is Arabian oil, the most important !!!-??? Or is Arabian oil as important for the euro as it is for the dollar !!!-??? And place Asian's growing oil-consumption-dependance as the joker into the play. The answer to this question is in the process of being formulated by the actions of the International Intrigants...those who *make* things happen.

The above must be understood as an illustration of what has/is been happening with Gold. Gold is purposely in the ban of many percepted paradoxes whilst the intrigants are almost sure of the final outcome (not the timing) for Gold !!! Free markets are only as free as the intrigants want them to be free ! POG is obscenely low, because those in the know of its future, want as much as possible of it ( Gold). An easely understandable paradox, out of many more difficult ones. Isn't it so evident that when one wishes to dispose something overvalued price is (will be)*manufactured*.

Look at the unbridled debt-creation. Try to find a logical explanation why the dollar faction (FED) keeps on insisting that the ECB (euro) should lower its interest rates as low as the dollar ones !!! Remember the story about the two euro and dollar men, lost in the desert and facing the hungry debt-lion...euro has simply to outrun the dollar by 1/10 of a nanometer...
Who is organizing, encouraging this race ? Geopolitical events are part of the obstacle building of this race between euro-dollar and the debt-lion.

Gold is the geo-political metal !

Nice weekend to you.

a nation of oneTo Belgian and Knallgold#11120711/2/03; 08:07:12

I guess I will jump into this discussion.

I see the issue as being biological in nature.

The planet is up for grabs, the same as it has always
been, and these Russian manifestations are more of the
same, admittedly not obviously so. But I find that the
most clear explanation is the most fundamental one.

Imagine if someone said that what matters most about
pencils is that every pencil is a pencil, that it makes no
difference whether its cross section is hexagonal or
round, or whether it is painted yellow or red, or whether
it has a hardness of 6H or 4B. Just go ahead and use it,
they would say, and you will find it completely suited to
your task. An engineer would laugh at this. For he knows
that the degree of a pencil's softness or hardness is
crucial to a drawing. And so does an artist. Or a meter
reader. The other aspects also have reasons. Hand a 6H
pencil to a school child and even he will understand the

They say there is no such thing as differences between
people. But try telling that to an African American who
can't get a job in a white church, or to a Mexican
American who can't get a contractor's permit from the
city, or to a white man who stumbles into a African
American bar late on Saturday night, as I have done, or to
a single man in a room full of married women and their

All pencils can write that gold has value. But when gold
is up for grabs, they take it who have power to do so.
It's the same for nations and the men who rule them. Nor
is every style of rule the same. Some hold office
publicly, whereas others hold power in effect, without
visible outward sign. And these are constantly in
conflict. Putin comes from the great Viking fighting
tradition, where a man is expected to acknowledge openly
what his weapons are and to let people see how he uses
them, because, if you can do that with desired effect, no
one can do better. His enemies are the silent ones,
however, who pose no obvious threat, and whose weapons are
also silent, stealthful, manipulative, very dangerous and
also effective. Russia is a fairly large part of planet
earth. Surely it must be seen as having value and be worth
fighting for, by all who seek to possess, by whatever
means, and no matter what their origin.

Gold is recognized almost universally as being what men
can acquire who are without the means for obtaining
nations, and it is they, and we among them, who drive this
market. Personally, I love the fray, partly because I am
more than equal to most, and to those to whom I am not
equal, by joining the fray I may become equal, and only by
that means. I side with those who are sufficiently
proficient with their tools to state their means, rather
than to have to hide them or use them in darkness. Gold
serves this purpose well for us, for these dynamics are at
work in the gold market as much as they are at work in the
world at large.

Where a man cannot hope to claim a nation, let him claim gold.

For gold is an outward -and an honest- sign of the extent of a man's own kingdom.

This is why dishonest men and dishonest nations abhore it.

And it is why I possess my share.

It is why you should yours also.

a nation of onecorrection#11120811/2/03; 08:14:27

Last line should be: "It is why you should have your share also."
misetich At Least 15 Killed When U.S. Helicopter Shot Down#11120911/2/03; 08:27:20


FALLUJAH, Iraq -- Insurgents shot down a U.S. Chinook helicopter over western Iraq on Sunday as it carried troops headed for R&R, killing 15 soldiers and wounding 21 in the deadliest single strike against American troops since the start of war.
Others celebrated word of the helicopter downing, as well as a fresh attack on U.S. soldiers in Fallujah itself, where witnesses said an explosion struck one vehicle in a U.S. Army convoy at about 9 a.m. Sunday. They claimed four soldiers died, but U.S. military sources said they couldn't confirm the report.
In a separate incident, the U.S. command said a soldier from the 1st Armored Division was killed just after midnight when a makeshift bomb was exploded as his vehicle passed while responding to another incident.

In Abu Ghraib, on Baghdad's western edge, U.S. troops clashed with townspeople Sunday for the second time in three days, and witnesses reported casualties among both the Americans and Iraqis. There was no immediate official confirmation.

Ugly- just plain ugly. Lives of young people are being sacrificed for no reason - There must/could/should have better alternatives to oust Saddam

Iraq had no proven ties to terrorism nor the Anglos have proven they had WMD

Unfortunately one can guess what the reaction to today's bloodshed will be - the use of force

The quiet majority of Americans stands silently - blind faith - leads to support Neo-Cons agenda that has thus far has put the Superpower globas dominance in jeopardy as the Rest of the World led by EU is unwilling to accept the "New World Order" dictated by the Anglos

The consequences of this tacit approval by the general American public carries a price - a price of isolation - a price of self-destruction as the costs of funding the Neo-Cons agenda is unsustainable.

The US achilli is the $ and the Rest of the World knows it and are taking steps to chop its foundation - OIL

Oil priced in Euros - Will other commodities follow suit?

Deepest simpathys to the families of the fallen on all sides

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

VanRipBelgian - Toolie - New Currency#11121011/2/03; 08:30:13

Belgian, Love your stuff and look forward to your posts.

Toolie posted an intersting link (above) in his 11171 post about a new currency. Perhaps it's old hat and a yawner to a lot of people, but it aparently it is being developed by some heavy hitters who seem to think it will work. A short version is at:

I get the gist of the idea of the currency, but I haven't a clue as to the flaws in the thing, if any (other than the one Toolie mentioned), its affect on euro/dollar, gold, whether it has a chance of happening, role of the fed, oil, etc. Almost seems like a certainty the way it was presented.

I wonder where it will go from here and how it will affect a lot of things if it happens.

Another link from Toolie's post is at:,+06:31+AM

misetich(AFX-Focus) 2003-11-02 15:16 GMT: Rothschild takes on pivotal role at Yukos - report#11121111/2/03; 08:49:17


LONDON (AFX) - Lord Jacob Rothschild, a member of the banking dynasty, has emerged as a central figure in the row over the future of Yukos, Russia's largest oil group, the Sunday Telegraph reported citing officials of the company.
It said Rothschild is one of a number of people to have been asked to take on voting rights over a bloc of Yukos shares following the arrest last weekend of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the billionaire head of the oil company.

According to the newspaper, Khodorkovsky has close ties with the British peer.
It said that as well as Rothschild, this group is thought to include Leonid Nevzlin, a former associate of Khodorovsky at Yukos who left Russia in the summer.

The Sunday Telegraph said it has also learned that Khodorovsky is preparing legal action against the Russian prosecutors office for alleged defamation of character.

It added that Yukos, which is merging with rival Sibneft, has quashed reports that the company is to sell a stake in the business to Exxon Mobil Corp or ChevronTexaco Corp of the US.

Neat move by Yukos and the Oil Companies - Putin is no dummy.. here's an excerpt from an article published at

"When Russia began privatizing property it was done with the understanding that privately owned property would be more effective than state-owned property. We did not privatize so that the property could be sold to the United States and Khodorkovsky would get the money," said Sergei Markov, a political analyst close to the Kremlin.

The war of words is heating up between the US and Russia - here's ANOTHER snip from the Moscom Times

U.S. Hawk Wants Russia Out of G-8

Richar Perle, a hawkish policy adviser whose voice is heard in the Pentagon, has called for Russia to be expelled from the Group of Eight industrialized countries over the arrest of Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

"Russia should be excluded from the G-8. No [other] G-8 country is allowed to treat its leading businessmen the way Russia treated Khodorkovsky," Perle was quoted as saying in Russian translation in the Thursday issue of Kommersant. "I believe Russia is moving fast in the wrong direction."
Perle also criticized the campaign in Chechnya and said he hoped that Russian oil companies would be denied contracts in postwar Iraq. He said the White House should be under no illusions that the Kremlin will help to end alleged development of nuclear weapons by Iran.

The Neo-Cons agenda is being threatned and opposed on all fronts

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

geThe New (Currency) Design#11121211/2/03; 09:41:43

from New Zealand
21mabryRothschilds#11121311/2/03; 09:43:38

Misetech, Thanks for info. The Rothschilds are still a force, and as always big money draws the flies.21
Cavan ManUSAG 111209#11121411/2/03; 09:47:28

Unlike Ronald Reagan, this gentleman has no compunction about loss of innocent life. Truly, folly marches on.

Kyrie Eleison

21mabry(No Subject)#11121511/2/03; 09:58:35

Saddam,Bin Laden threat=Big money defense contracts,big money oil contracts,prepetuial warefare economy based on a real or imagined threat.It is not in the interest of the power elite to catch these men.People these are their Emmanuel Goldstiens you are seeing orwellian 1984 played out here.Was listening To Dave Morgan he seems to think silver has established 5 dollar floor which in his opinion was needed for it to move to higher ranges.Take heart people as long as places like this forum exists free thinkers and free thinking will continue.21
silvercollectorMisetich#11121611/2/03; 11:23:47

The 15 killed in the helicopter crash is getting serious (not that 15 killed is more or less serious than 1). Obviously a concerted effort is beginning to take hold in Iraq.

I can only imagine a mother or father getting news of their son or daughter dying in the seriously out-of-control mad-house over there.

Wonder how long it will be before a parent sues the US military for some sort of negligence? I mean, we're not at war anymore, right? Why are so many US soldiers dying? If we are not at war, why are we war-ing?

You are correct, this is ugly. And getting uglier by the day. Gotta end really, really bad.

KnallgoldBelgian#11121711/02/03; 12:05:31

Just read your post with great interest,thanks for your reflections.Yes,I keep on forgetting the opportunists....

Shortly after yours,I read Misetichs #111211 and got an example ,couldn't be more timely!

On a brighter note,the newsletter I subscribe to has for the first time recommended physical Gold!!!This is big news in my view as they have always been distinctly pro Gold and are on the record for being independent/anti banking system since their debut 30 years ago.

With a certain %-age they always played the mining shares (in the ranges CB's allowed...) but said bullion is not a theme yet.

Times are changing,and particularly interesting the reason for their recommendation of bullion: to save your wealth through bad times/devaluations!Exactly the store of wealth argument this Forum keeps on insisting!

So they don't give the manipulation game much more time obviously'see the flight from the $ accelerating and made comparisons with the 30'ies depression where those who could change their paper into Gold-made it through!

DryWasherToolie ( msg#: 111171) spooky agenda PART ONE#11121811/02/03; 12:43:32

Thanks for posting the above link Sir Toolie. I have also been following the Denver FUTURE OF MONEY conference with interest as well and have even posted a bit on it and related matters. (Ref msg # 108208, 108216, 110598, 110605, and 110640.)

Although I share your doubts about the proposed Terra as a so called solution, in my opinion the above document does do a fair job of outlining the problems we are facing. Let me quote a few examples taken from it which I think are on target:

"The world today is facing some key economic and financial concerns, which, persist and are growing in scope despite any and all efforts aimed at ameliorating them. These concerns are:
. Massive job-losses;
. A mounting world recession, which now includes the world's three major world
. A lack of hard currencies and decreasing investments in Less Developed Countries
. Conflict between short-term financial interests and long term sustainability."


"Our monetary system is in a state of great instability and change. A current global casino of unprecedented proportions determines our money's value. Over $1.3 trillion are traded per day in foreign exchange markets, a figure that is almost 100 times more than the trading volume of all of the world's stock exchanges, combined. Nearly 96% of these transactions are purely speculative; they do not relate to the "real" economy, they do not reflect global exchanges of actual goods and services."


"on August 15, 1971, President Nixon unilaterally disconnected the dollar from gold, inaugurating an era without an international standard of value. Thus began floating exchanges, a monetary
arrangement in which currency values could fluctuate significantly at any point in time. Since this decision, the world's monetary system has not had any reliable international standard of value or a unit of measure (e. g., like the meter for distance, the degree Celsius for temperature or the Herz for frequencies)."


"The current volatility of our money system has resulted in significantly increased commerce risks with regard to particular national currencies. Currency risks are typically larger than political risks (i. e., the possibility that a foreign government nationalizes the investment), or even market risks (i. e., the possibility that clients do not want the product)."


"In a survey of U. S. Fortune 500 corporations, 85 % reported the need to use derivative hedging strategies to attempt to reduce foreign exchange risks."


"Counter-trade. A technical term for international corporate barter, counter-trade is estimated to be in common use among no less than 200 countries around the world, with a volume that now ranges from $800 billion to $1. 2 trillion per year. This represents a staggering 10% to 15% of all international trade."


"Another systemic issue is that the money-creation process tends to amplify the boom and bust fluctuations of the business cycle by the banking system."


"In short, the collective actions of the banking system tend to exacerbate the business cycle in both boom and bust directions. Notwithstanding the attempts by Central Banks to reduce such
fluctuations by giving interest rate signals, the current process of creating money through bank-debt remains, in practice, a strong accentuation mechanism in the boom/ bust cycle."


"An influential group of special interests has emerged who are opposed to reforming the global monetary system (i. e., oppose taking steps to make the system more stable), because the current instability is a source of substantial profits for this particular group. In addition, a whole industry has evolved around creating, selling and trading a full range of sophisticated "hedging" instruments that provide protection against currency fluctuations. In some cases, the trading of such instruments has become the most important profit centers, not just for major banks, but also, for the treasury departments of major corporations."


"As John B. Connally, former U. S. Secretary of the Treasury under Nixon, remarked: "The dollar may be our currency, but it is your problem." This "benign neglect" approach continues still, making a cooperative governmental initiative by the United States unlikely. Therefore, any monetary initiatives that are to be taken must be initiated by the private sector."


DryWasher: In my opinion the above DOES make a strong case for change. In a following post (PART TWO) I will comment on the Terra as a proposed solution.

DryWasherToolie ( msg#: 111171) spooky agenda PART TWO#11121911/02/03; 12:47:49

Following are a few excerpts from the linked paper which outline the basics of the Terra Trade Reference Currency Initiative.

"The Terra TRC is a demurrage-charged, privately issued, complementary, Trade Reference Currency, that is backed by an inflation-resistant, standardized basket of the dozen most important commodities and services in the global market. The TRCs will be issued by The TRC Alliance as inventory receipts, with an organizational structure that is open to all newcomers meeting certain pre-established criteria (similar to that of the Visa credit card system)."


"The cost for holding onto the TRC currency is estimated at 3.5%-4% per annum. This demurrage charge insures the currency's use mainly as a trading device: it would not be
hoarded but always tend to remain in circulation."


"The TRC is designed as a complementary currency that operates in parallel with national currencies, without competing with or trying to replace them. Every currency and financial instrument that currently exists would still be available for anybody who wants to use them after the TRC is operational."


"The TRC is backed by a standardized basket of the most important commodities and services in the global market (e. g., oil, wheat, copper, etc; as well as some standardizable services such as Carbon Emission rights). It would, therefore, be conceptually similar to a fully backed gold standard, but in the case of the TRC, the backing would consist not of one single commodity but of a dozen of the main international commodities, including gold. Since it is fully backed by a physical inventory of commodities, the TRC would be a secure, robust and credible payment and provide a stable international mechanism for contractual and payment purposes worldwide."


"The TRC automatically tends to counteract the boom and bust fluctuations of the business cycle, thereby improving the overall stability and predictability of the world's economic system. When the business cycle is weakening, corporations customarily have an excess of inventory and a need for credit. The excess inventories can now be sold to the TRC Alliance (who would place these inventories into storage). The TRC Alliance would pay for these inventories in TRC, thus providing corporations with a means of needed working capital (typically not readily available in this part of a business cycle). These corporations would immediately spend the TRC's, say, to pay their suppliers, so as to avoid the demurrage charges (whose holding costs accumulate over time)."


The problem with the TRC as outlined above is not so much that it it is just a bad idea, which I think it is, but that it is totally unworkable.

The TRC is to be FULLY backed by a PHYSICAL inventory of about a dozen commodities including oil, wheat, copper, etc. according to the above, but where will that MASSIVE inventory be stored and how will it be managed? This is no small detail by any means. What we have here is effectively the exact opposite of just in time inventory management. Vast inventories of oil, wheat, etc. will be locked up in storage for no other reason than to provide backing for the Terra. Sorry guys, but that is just plain nuts.

It gets worse. During bad times the TRC Alliance would buy up excess inventories of these commodities and pay for them with newly printed Terras which would then be spent by the producers of these commodities to keep production rolling so that they could produce more excess to be purchased and stored by the TRC Alliance etc. etc. etc.

In conclusion let me say that I don't think anyone is going take this idea seriously, but it is interesting to look at some of these nutty ideas on a Sunday afternoon.

VanRip (msg#: 111210) I just read your message while I was getting ready to post this. I would also welcome the views of others on this subject.

GOLD, the standard of value for 5000 years and still counting.

adminNews & Views On-Line#11122011/02/03; 13:35:06

We invite you to bookmark our new page (which replaces MK's Gold Commentary & Review).

This page captures links to important gold-related stories around the internet for those who would like to find top articles Drudge-style, all in one place and just a click away. We'll update the page regularly, as needed, so visit at your leisure. Visit often.

We are now featuring the Fortune article on Warren Buffett's contention that the trade deficit is selling the nation out from under us. There's another link to one top analysts prediction that gold is going over $1000 over the next five years.

Happy browsing, and we invite you to bring your reactions and comments back to the forum for all to consider.

Ten BearsLife imitates art?#11122111/02/03; 13:54:09

Life imitates art and produces a different results; In the 1975 film "3 days of the condor" Robert Redford, a CIA reader, uncovers a plot by a powerful special interest group operating within the agency, to convince politicians to invade the middle east. The movie has been playing frequently on cable, (someone made the connection?). In the movie the plot was foiled.

In the 1988 John Carpenter movie, "They Live" a dull witted hero and his action heroics are the venue for his discovery on just how his world works, memorable line; "They are destroying the middle class…we are their cattle." The movie has also been playing frequently on cable.

BelgianRe#11122211/02/03; 14:20:40

VanRip : The "terra" concept is nothing else than a theorethical precursor of Free Gold in a Free Gold Market ! A supra-national (imperfect) currency with an automatic (managable) cycle stabilizaton mechanism.
Forget about the "terra" (ecu-like thing) but remember the more important (valuable) concept, behind it. As to understand that ONLY
Gold is as * UNIVERSAL * as can be. Free Gold is meant to be "perfect" ! There is NO competitor (competing system) for FREE GOLD (free gold market). A basket of resources will always be the subject of changes and will tend to begin "floating" again.

Think about the following side-note : 50 years after the WWII and the holocost, nation states and victims can still and do claim their stolen Gold ! Find it strange, that Americans never claimed restitution for their confiscated Gold in exchange for a depreciating fiat-paper (1933-1971) !?

a nation of one : Whilst reading your great post, it was announced that all handlings of cash fiat will carry more costs. Immediately the "paradoxal" non Taxing of "Bullion" flashed through my head. Physical Gold in Possession is an "Official" invitation (strong suggestion) to build your own Kingdom.

misetech : Howhoww Sir...NOT "all" in EU are un-willing to accept the prospects of a NWO !!! These Atlantists keep anxiously looking/hoping for the dollar-system to survive and continue to take the lead.
But this internal euro-resistance will progressively weaken when the UK (Sweden and Denmark) will join later on.
Watch Trichet's (subtle) moves on inviting the whole of northern Africa (including Libya) into cooperation with Spain and Italy. Wim Duisenberg left the map on the wall of the ECB's presidential office.

Belgian@KnallGold#11122311/02/03; 14:44:22

Just finished watching a documentary (hommage) on Duisenberg. When intervieuwed privatly in his South of France villa...he said something remarkable when questioned about the US' twin deficit and his meetings with Greenspan. It is Euroland and Japan who are providing the bulk of dollars needed to keep the dollar going ! Next scene was Wim, posing in the Amsterdam Gold vault, surrounded by 12 Kg bars of Bullion. Alan told Wim not to worry about the deficits. Wim knew better and remained silent.

Many pictures in this documentary showed Wim's constant obsession (24/7) for the euro-dollar exchange rate. He was happy with the (his) ideal rate of 1,15-1,20. Trichet wants more !

My perception is that during Duisenberg's period, there was (still probably is) an entende cordial between EU and US (ECB-FED) on exchange rates. Remember the "Washington" in the WAG. Wim was obsessed with "stability". Trichet will defenitly take the euro further during his 8 years of presidency. Gold will be there...

21mabryThey Live#11122411/02/03; 15:13:52

Great B flick.Roddy Piper plays the hero in an america troubled by hard economic times.His best line "I have come here to kick a.. and chew bubble gum and I'm all out of gum." John Carpenter knows something his movies are a message in someway.21
VanRipBelgian#11122511/02/03; 16:43:41

Thank you for your response and your insight. One of the beauties of this board is the willingness of some of the heavyweights to help along the lightweights, no matter how simple their concern. Thanks again.
VanRipDryWasher#11122611/02/03; 17:05:42


As I posted earlier, I don't have a clue about the pros and cons of the proposed new currency, and it's why I appreciate helpful and enlightenng responses from people like Belgian and you.

What peeked my interest was the caliber of the people who put or are putting the thing together and the place and audience where it was announced. Bernard Lietaer, the chief architect behind the Euro, is one of the chief architects, so I imagine, if nothing else, it will get some press.

GondolinIraq- off subject#11122711/02/03; 17:16:12

As there is a degree of relevance to all events unfolding in Iraq on the POG I would like to share an observation from a British girl working with the Provisional Government based in Basra who I met on the weekend while she was on leave.

Discussing the mood of the Iraqi people she observed that most were indeed happy to see the Coalition in Iraq, were forthcoming with information on issues such as vandalism and theft of power cables etc, and are indeed grateful for the removal of Saddam and the absence of the threat of sudden arrest and the state of fear under the old regime.

On the escalating bombings and violence she was also surprisingly optimistic that these would not get much worse than they are, and would in fact start to die down. She intimated that the Iraqi people will possibly start to react against the perpetrators of these acts, and are indeed workng with the coalition to a great extent in many ways.

She also commented on the extent of negative media coverage on Iraq, and the picture she painted, certainly in the Basra region is one of gradual improvement. Mention was also made of probable contribution to the cause by both Japan and China,following recent visits by both civil and military personnel to top levels, although it is unlikely there will be military contributions.

Her feeling was that the Coalition may be able to withdraw from Iraq sooner than many pundits are predicting, possibly within another year.

Of course this is only opinion but it can help sometimes to get a viewpoint from someone who is actually on the spot. I will be in contact with her again by email, and will post anything of relevance or interest she comes up with.

Incidentally I was able to convince her where to invest her rather large tax free salary she earns being out there. We have another convertee who should be in touch with CPM over the next few weeks!! She also vaguely recalls the mysterious trucks full of gold that were turning up, but there was little info on what actually happened to them.

Dollar Bill*>*.........+#11122811/02/03; 20:55:47

If anyone can offer up a vision of what would have happened if the US had not gone off gold in the thirties, and didnt have the fake gold redemption after WW2, what would the US look like today?
a nation of oneTo Belgian#11122911/02/03; 21:34:01

Interesing point. Yet another incentive to buy gold.
Max RabbitzGondolin#11123011/02/03; 21:39:27

Your Iraq information sounds right. Basra and the south of Iraq are Shite Moslem whereas the trouble is coming from the minority Sunni Middle that can not hope to rule over the Sunnis and and northern Kurds in a Democratic Iraq. I wonder how many of the Sunni's want to give those they oppressed the vote. It's a brutal world out there hidden behind a veneer of civilization. I hope I never have to use the gold I've saved but I doubt this great credit bubble economy can keep going too much longer. Even a small increase in home insurance costs from the fires could stress bloated California monthly home financing costs. I wonder how many of those expensive homes were built with cheap particle board or other cost savers? Everyone wants to get rich but few have a clue about wealth.
LeSinNo Light @ End of Iraq Tunnel#11126611/04/03; 03:16:43

November 2, 2003
No light at the end of this tunnel, George
By ERIC MARGOLIS -- Contributing Foreign Editor

"The light that optimistic George Bush sees at the end of the Iraq tunnel is probably an onrushing truck, loaded with explosives."

Belgian@ Remarx #111254 : Fiat Currency DEVALUATIONS.....#11126711/04/03; 03:45:42

The "Permanent" (!!!) "non-stopable" (!!!) "systemic" (!!!) currency devaluations, solve NOTHING. This repeated currency "EXPERIMENT" is as old as the first fiat-currency into existance and always ended with the restoration of GOLD ! Then, another fiat-currency-experiment with another life-time, starts AGAIN !

Answer to your question : The permanent currency depreciation is causing "permanently" collateral dammage !
One enjoys smoking (health-devaluation) up until longcancer manifests itself ! Then one runs for medication (Gold).

Today's answer to the evolving permanent devaluation is FREEGOLD !

A FOA alinea : The secret to all of this is in the "Legal Tender Laws", allowing Gold to be used as a Legal Tender for the settlement of all debts, public and private...But CHANGING INTERNATIONAL LAW SUCH THAT NO FORM OF DEBT CAN FORCE IT'S PAYMENT IN GOLD !!!

...This opens a one way street for Gold and a two way street in fiat currencies. Nobody will lend Gold because they cannot force it's return in the courts, thereby making Gold a *** Physical Only International Currency ***.

...Yet, on the other hand, we all must borrow in this modern world and currencies will be the only avenue for this. Creating a demand (and added value) for them in addition to general use demand.

Comment : What is going to stop the permanent fiat currency devaluation (smoking) and when ? Will there ever be...Is there any sigaret without nicotine and tar ? Yep, there is...FREEGOLD ! What will make us stop smoking and using FREEGOLD ? Yep, the concept behind the euro.

Mauldin (at the neighbours) has an essay on "Demographics".
Euroland is facing a huge demographical problem !!! One out of some other "fundamental" reasons for having the new Gold-Concept, build in, behind the new euro-fiat !!!

This in sharp contrast with the dollar (reserve) who wishes to keep all paper (stockmarket) artificially...UP and extremely overvalued as a fake collateral for savers, pensioners and transfer of (virtual) wealth.

That's it Remarx. Give us a signal when the answer to your question is unclear or flawed or non realistic, impossible....

AristotleBeeeeellllllgiaaaaannnnnn!!!#11126811/04/03; 04:16:46

If I could have just one wish for Christmas this year, it would be that everyone *EVERYONE* could grow up and understand *UNDERSTAND* your message #111267. Like the second slice of bread, it ought to be forever sandwiched together with my October 14th encapsulation of "honest money." (RE:#110359) With that basic foundation, people could feast long and well with the various political meats and fillings of their own choosing.

We walk a lonely road, my fine fellow, but it's comforting to to at least slowly see more and more of our forum-mates getting their grips on this.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

silvercollectorR.Powell // steady#11126911/04/03; 05:00:47

I'm not trying to define 'advisor' or 'advice'.

I'm trying to find out if Sinclair is right? There are alot of 'advisors' out there crowing about the POG, how far gold will scream and when. Are they correct?

Is FOA an 'advisor'? I'm not slightly interested in the answer. I want to know if he is right about his theories.

There are (were) dozens of mainstream gold-crowing analysts (advisors?) who predicted $400 plus gold in 2003. Will they be vindicated?

I've been listening to them all since the inception of this forum and watching gold vault from 250 to 375 (50%) is ..well...frankly, quite meagre. Yeah, yeah, yeah we wait for 'free-gold', the liberation of gold, blah, blah, blah. What a bunch of fairytales.

Gold went ballistic in 1980 due to real economic and monetary dangers, not due to spiritual and conceptual baloney.

Let me say something for the cheap seats. There is a possibility, perhaps a probability that gold will post another 10-bagger. That is why we are here, yes? You and I and the guy that posts next all have a common point of view, holding gold should be far more lucrative, profitable, safe (pick your favorite adjective) than holding any other currency on this planet, dollar Euro, yen or otherwise. We have something very definable in common.

I have alot of 'money' invested in gold. In fact, I pretty much have the farm bet on it. I don't have the time, the money, the patience etc. to listen to any more blowhards. The economic recovery underway, albeit small is measurable, yet there are a multitude of posts, article and essays devoted to why it will fail and an equal number that promise the moon. It is the same old, same old day in, day out. A tractor-trailer load of baloney & malarky is what it is.

I bought Bonner's new book, "Financial Reckoning Day", over $40. I rarely spend that kind of money on a book. I needed to hear something precise, accurate, factual. The book is lovely, a nice recount of history with riveting statistics and guess what? All kinds of theories as to where the USA is heading. Everything that is in the book is here on the internet. The same 100 'advisors' on the net are repeating in a huge, grandiose circle the same thing over and over and over again. Gold to the moon because the dollar will crash.

It's a gold mini-bubble virtuous circle thingy. Bonner mentions in his book at least a dozen names all of whom have their web sites devoted to the demise of the USD.

How can this be unlike the tech bubble where a couple dozen Wall Street analysts praised tech stocks from 97 to 01 day in, day out in there little virtuous circle thingy? They were right....for a while.

Are our gold friends correct (for a while) as well?

If your local currency craters gold will skyrocket, so will everything else. The essence of inflation, yes? And when is gold a good bet? Simple. When interest rates do not keep up to inflation rates (negative real interest rates).

Gold is not only currency of last resort it is also investment of last resort. Suck it up, it is. If interest rates are 5% and inflation is 2% (as it recently was) gold will fall. In recent history interest rates have fallen while inflation has begun to percolate. With both rates near equal gold has risen. If inflation perks up before rates rise gold will rise more but if rates rise first look out below.

Too much currency dilutes it causing rising prices, everything costs more. That includes gold in the local currency.

Gold prices are simply a rate spread phenomona while inflation is a currency related item.

It doesn't have to be anymore complicated than that.

Remarx@Belgian#11127011/4/03; 06:11:57

Thank you. I got most of what you were saying, except the role of the Euro.

"What will make us stop smoking and using FREEGOLD ? Yep, the concept behind the euro."

I was under the impression that gold backing of the euro was illusory. Or is it more real than I thought? Either way, I did not quite follow why it will "make us stop smoking". Could you elaborate more on that or point me to some good resources?

Thanks! -r

ZhishengNew Medical Use of Gold#11127111/4/03; 06:17:52

To treat cancerous tumors.
AristotleRemarx, let me interrupt your question to Belgian#11127211/4/03; 07:05:48

The short answer is to see the early October 14th archives and you'll know what stands behind the euro, along with knowing its unique position vis à vis FreeGold.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

J-BullionR. Powell#11127311/4/03; 07:14:23

Thanks for your thoughts on silver. I know i'm missing something in that market. I agree with the China situation regarding all commodities, and you would figure that China's use of silver should be exploding along with everything else. I suppose in time it will be inevitable.
Socrates964Silvercollector#11127411/4/03; 07:29:53

What happens if gold ends the year around $380, with everyone churning out economic recovery stories, saying the price is unsustainable, etc. etc., and it goes to $430 in February/March. Does that make Sinclair a con man - being 2 months late in his predictions? Either you are trading too close to the edge or you need some Prozac.

I once paid a great deal of money to a highly experienced trader to teach me how to trade and would ask him about his price targets, and whenever I stuttered, errm... and when do you think it's going there? He'd always reply, on January 21st, at 3.24pm and 53 seconds precisely and tell me not to ask dumb questions. Hint: you make real money by being on the right side of the trend, not by nailing accurate predictions about the price being X on day Y. My observation of Sinclair since his Financial Sense days tells me that he is consistently on the right side of the trend.

The hallmark of an amateur is taking predictions at face value. Look below the surface and ask yourself how gold is going to go through $400 in short order. How about a short squeeze? And you don't get a short squeeze unless the shorts get very short, right? And the shorts don't get very short unless they think they can rout the longs. And they won't think they can rout the longs unless they perceive that the longs are nervous. And how do you make the longs nervous. By faking signs of a top in the face of wildly optimistic predictions. But then, perhaps the longs only appear to be nervous in order to ensure that the shorts get even shorter....

Will it work, or will they just chase each other round in circles. I haven't a clue, I just know that whatever happens, the stock of available gold will keep going down and sooner or later, this will show up as a higher POG. You know my technical predictions - gold broke the key .786 level at 380.50, now it should go to 458. When? Any time between now and next September is my likely guess. Is the final high on gold going to be 460 or 529 or 556 or 600 or 800 or 1500 or 8000? No-one knows because no-one knows what US monetary policy will look like in 18 months time. Does it really matter? No. All you need to know is that gold is in an uptrend until proven otherwise. If you are long of an uptrend, you will make money. Period.

Remember also, gold is not some third-rate internet stock pushed up and down by a bunch of daytraders, but a game with immeasurably higher stakes. It can only be won by enormous patience, subtlety, stealth and subterfuge. It's naive to assume that the Cabal wakes up and says 'Oh Gee! We really wanted to cover our shorts at $360, but there are all these buy orders at $390. I guess we'll just have to take the loss. Gnarly bummer, dude!, and even more naive to assume that the Jim Sinclairs of this world think, 'I have a cunning plan that will make me richer than Midas. I shall post on my website that I shall keep buying gold until the price is $420, small investors will read my website, and will also buy gold. And if the gold price reverses by $5, I shall write another comment on my website saying, Do not worry, little small investor, I have a friend who will also be buying gold until the price is $420. If you are still worried, send me an E-mail and I will reply with a personalized 'Don't Worry, Be Happy' message' and Wall Street will tremble in their boots and cover their shorts.

a nation of oneto silvercollector#11127511/4/03; 08:03:35

You are not alone. A number of us have put a lot into gold.

There is not anything precise that can be said about what
POG is going to do. But a lot of people will be glad to
tell you what they think, myself included. Risk is one of
the principle characteristics inherent in buying and
selling -and in holding- anything. Uncertainty is a
principle characteristic of all risk.

Jim Sinclair is a nice guy, and I read his comments daily.
But even he doesn't know what gold is going to do. He was
saying '400' months and months ago. And he may be right
sooner or later. What is useful about his remarks, in my
estimation, is that he is knowledgeable about the market
and has experience and training. These I take seriously.

There are plenty of very good reasons to expect that POG
will go higher. More people are realizing this, and this
alone is an important factor. The reasons to believe that
it will go lower for the most part depend on false
information, as far as I can tell.

If it were easy to tell when gold is going to go up or
down, everybody would be rich. But it is not that way.
When it is up, everybody is happy; when it's down,
everyone is scared. What is important is to recognize that
THE PRIMARY TREND IS STILL UP. POG could come down quite a
bit without starting a downward primary trend. Stay with
the primary trend.

It is during times when the secondary or intermediate
trend is down that people get scared and sell. Then it
goes up again. That is deliberate to an extent. What
matters is what you do during these events. If you sell
when you are scared, and buy when you are feeling
optimistic, you will become a victim of the speculators.
Use your brain, not your heart. Think. And then do what
your most careful thoughts tell you. This does not
guarantee success, but it does tend to minimize failure.
And when you make the best decision you can make under a
circumstance, if it goes wrong, you don't feel quite as
bad as when you only follow your emotions. I'm sure
everyone probably already knows this.

The swings in price which gold undergoes is one reason
many prefer to own physical. And these swings will get
much larger if and when the price goes higher. So it is
useful to cultivate a certain degree of equilibrium in
one's emotions. When POG falls, sometimes I go for a walk.
Or laugh about what a deluded chump I was, to think I
would make money. When it is going up, I follow it avidly
to see when it will fall, because I am sure that it will.
Then, when it does, I get involved in something else to
take my mind of off it. I wait for the bottom, then, if I
can, I buy more.

I remind myself over and over that I am committed to
benfitting from the primary trend.

When my broker calls, I tell him, "No. Don't call me. I'll
call you," and, "Thank you, but I am not interested in
selling," and, "My goal is to benefit from the primary
trend." After a while he gets the idea. I also own
physical. When POG drops ten points I count my money, to
be sure I have enough to outlast the fall. I sleep okay. I
have made some money. I have lost some money. On the
whole, I am ahead. Quite nicely in fact. I keep reminding
myself that reality must eventually set in. When it does,
gold will probably go higher.

Right now there is a great desire, on the part of some,
for events to transpire is such a way as to get a certain
office holder re-elected. That is down the road a bit. But
present national effects are being given free reign
consistent with these hopes. They are still nonetheless in
conflict however with what is really going on
economically, here and abroad, according to what little I
can see.

Maybe if you lifted weights, or something, you would feel
better. When you subject your body to such stress, your
brain produces morphine-like substances which make you
feel better. That's why I take a walk. It lifts my mood.

These are just my opinions. No one is responsible for the
outcome of your actions but yourself.

AristotleSinclair can make predictions as fast and furious as he likes...#11127611/4/03; 08:25:37

but can he take the two pieces of bread we've offered and make a sandwich?

I don't think so. He said it himself -- he walks on eggshells.

But we, *WE* walk in the footsteps of giants!

Gold. Get you some. (Although I predict many won't, having been lulled into complacency.) --- Ari

misetichU. S. planned layoffs surge in October-Challenger#11127711/4/03; 08:50:25


NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The number of job cuts announced by U.S. employers surged 125 percent in October, after declining for two months, calling into question the strength of the recovery in the job market.

Planned layoffs at U.S. firms shot up to 171,874 jobs in October, from 76,506 in September, job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said on Tuesday. Announced layoffs were at their highest since Oct. 2002, when 176,010 job cuts were announced.

"With factors like technology, outsourcing, and consolidation working against job creation, any job market rebound we see in the near future will be relatively small," said John Challenger, chief executive at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, in a statement.

The SM SOARED yesterday (funny always seems to do - after some 'bad news event or bad trade deficit announcements' (over the week-end close to 20 US GI's lost their lives in Iraq and many more injured- which by all counts is a NEGATIVE since the costs of "reconstructing Iraq" will increase as the Iraqi civilian resistance to US occupation continues)

The Challenger report is sobering and newsworthy since without job creation the long sought US economic recovery will go nowhere

All the "good news" and expected continuation of "good news" is priced in the SM and the US $, yet thus far the "good economic news" has been obtained through government stimuli, (huge rebates such as child credits were distributed during 3rd qtr)low IR which continue to "fuel" housing construction bubble and IR derivatives bubble, military spending etc -

The US $ rebound is a temporary phenomena as "shorts" covered their positions - thus the adjustment in gold price in US $ terms -

The underlying primary trend for the US $ and SM is southbound

Until the economy starts to create meaningful paying jobs, and wage increases return to levels outpacing CPI (real not the massaged version) consumer spending is dependent on unsastainable sources such as refinancing etc.

The jobless US economic recovery continues just as the Twin deficits continue to grow

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetichLayoffs more than double in October#11127811/4/03; 09:05:07


So far in 2003, 1.04 million job reductions have been announced, the third year in a row exceeding 1 million. In 2001, 1.96 million jobs were cut; in 2002, 1.47 million jobs were cut.

In a separate poll conducted by Challenger of corporate personnel managers, 78 percent said there would not be a significant rebound in hiring before the second quarter of 2004. Eleven percent said the rebound would come in the third or fourth quarter and 11 percent said there wouldn't be a rebound in 2004. No one expected a rebound within the next six months.

Interesting - Reuters article (link posted - misetich (11/4/03; 08:50:25MT - msg#: 111277) did not include Challenger's separate poll

Always pays to due own dilegence and dig deeper

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetichTyco cutting 7,200 jobs in restructure#11127911/4/03; 09:20:12


NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Tyco International said Tuesday it'll cut 7,200 jobs in a new restructuring that will include the consolidation of 219 facilities and the sale of its undersea fiber-optic business.
Tyco's restructuring plan also includes exiting more than 50 of its businesses, including the Tyco Global Network (TGN), its undersea fiber-optic telecommunications network. Tyco said the businesses had combined annualized revenues of $2.1 billion in fiscal 2003, or about 6 percent of the company's revenue.

The businesses to be exited are in every Tyco business segment except plastics and adhesives, the company said. Measured by revenue, more than half of the planned divestitures are in the fire and security segment, it said.

More addtions to the 'bone pile' - whilst the Feds and WallStreet "celebrate" the good news of an "improving economy" the unemployed line get deeper

The Feds attempt to boost 'confidence' in light of harsh economy reality is leading ordinary citizens over the abyss
as investment decisions are being made on "false information"

How much more damage (and consequences to be paid later) is being done by these charlatans?

It is one thing to "restore and maintain calm" to avoid a stampede and organize an orderly way out BUT to "build confidence" through disseminating false and misleading information is simply a disastrous strategy.

No wonder Buffet, Gross, Soros are selling US $ -

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Belgian@silvercollector#11128011/4/03; 09:23:28

I sincerely do appreciate your excellent and challenging post ! You rightly deserve all our attention with your justified outcry. Let us call a spade a spade and do some honest, constructive, to the point, hard talking, Sir.
Don't run away and take nothing personal from the Belgian dwarf. Here we go...

If you doubt, for only one single second, about the potential revaluation of Gold...rush to the exit and go for any...ANY alternative ! The Belgian dwarf (big mouth, small hart, bad character) has NOT made one single euro of profit (?) YET...from his Physical Gold Wealth Holdings (in euro)! BUT,...naive Belgian keeps on buying when confetti is available. Gold in euro ( 2 yrs chart euro/Kg) is flat and Gold in dollar is in the plus (+25%).

Let us run through the "alternatives", silvercollector.
Not the past ones but the present and future ones :

1/ Bond-debt-paper : The present 45 year low (near zero) interest rates have only 2 possibilities : staying low/lower or rise. Not much profit to be made on the downside (w're almost at zero) and at what interest are you going to buy debt-paper ? And do you realize, exactly, what you have done, when having debt-paper, exchanged for confetti !? Yes, you do ! I know you do. This kind of alternative is (must) be excluded for ever. Ring the bell if we have to argument more on this.

2/ Stock Market : Today, the risk-reward chances are NOT a match at all, for any type of "CONSERVATIVE" investor...INVESTOR !!! Repeat : conservative and investor.
Investigate how the US$ 6 TRILLION of American savings (idem for EU) in the thousands of "Funds" are doing on average since 2000 !?

What about the stock markets' chances on return for the next decade ? Same answer : Conservative Investors NEED undervalued VALUES and quasi certain STABLE GROWTH prospects before seriously risking any of their confetti.
There's one little (sic) problem...THERE ARE VERY FEW CONSERVATIVE INVESTORS LEFT !!! They all morphed into casino-gambling-addicts ! This is happening on a massive scale, AGAIN, silvercollector ! All such evolutions end with the inevitable return to "CONSERVATISM" !!! To conserve...

Back to the roots, modernized conservative roots, is a "process" ! There is no standardization on how and for what period such processus takes place. This is the only reply that I can give on your (mine and others) outcry on the many Gold-Theories that we have been digesting all together here.

If the above is much to theorethical (wich it is not, imo) than skip the following, leave your unprecious yellow and jump into the perpetual paper business.

3/ Derivatives : The only winners in this casino are the owners ! Hope this is briefly enough.

4/ Currencies : Surfing as a sandparticle on the forex-wave of US$ 1,2 Trillion per day. Good luck.

5/ Other tangibles than Gold : Specialist's work. Fully paid and unecumbered *home* is already a nice achievement (investment) for the many of us.

Back to some more gardening as to ponder on a final phrase...

One's Gold Holdings should be proportionate to one's fate in the *** Dollar EXPERIMENT ***.
Physical Gold was and will never be meant to * MAKE * money ! Use Gold-derivatives (including goldmines) if you wish to speculate/gamble on Gold !
FOA nor MK are advising on how to make money ! On the contrary...FOA tried to explain what WEALTH is and why it might be wise to exchange your made money (?) for wealth, NOW ! FOA isn't wrong on this advise-fundamental.

I've been running briefly over the financial alternatives that are there, meant to have another possibility to make money, confetti. But is "this" kind of making money, still in line with what is to be defined as "investment" and participation in the profits of genuine growth of free enterprises !?

Silvercollector, how many people in your environment, do you know of having multiplied their total savings (!) by ten (10), during 20 years of perpetual stockmarket rise ???

Answer : zero ! Am I right ?

How many individuals (percentage wise) out of the stockmarket crowd, had one single ten-bagger (big or small investment) in their portfolio ?

Answer : very little percentage ! Do you agree ?

Who were the ones that permanently "made" money/confetti in the past 20 years of financial mania ?

Answer : Those that organised the play/casino and their proxy insiders and privileged monopolists !

A very ...VERY, extremely small percentage of the masses made it to a mil/bilionaire in the financial confetti lotery. The masses have to stick to the papers they are holding and NOT run for any exit with their hyper-overvalued stuff, without causing a catastrophic financial crash. The same counts for the monetary field.

Where are you going to find a "conservative investment" opportunity, for the total of your savings, in this financial jungle ? How many enterprises have sound and reliable profitabily outlook, guaranteed for the next decade ??? What are the fundamental reasons, WHY, I'm coming up with such a gloomy outlook ???

Icons like K. Richebacher have seen it all for over 2 generations (50 yrs). Their accumulation of experience has developed a strong sense of intuition. His intuition leads to Gold.

Hope I haven't been irritating you with the classical preaching. Dinner time.

misetichUS chain store sales up, but fires still affect#11128111/4/03; 09:40:08


NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Last minute shopping for Halloween-related supplies put U.S. chain store sales on the upside as the California wildfires continued to curb gains, a report said on Tuesday. Sales rose 0.5 in the week ended Nov. 1, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi and UBS said in a joint report, compared with a 0.9 percent dip in the preceding week. Compared with the previous year, sales for the week were up 5.1 percent.

The fires that swept through Southern California negatively affected regional sales even as far as Nevada. Unseasonably warm temperatures weakened sales further.

BTM/UBS settled on the low end of its previous October comparable store sales growth estimate to 2.5 percent to 3 percent on a year-over-year basis.

California's economy - which is a big engine of the US economy is faltering - the "news spin" blames the fire that swept SC for poor sales growth -
The auto industry substantial decrease in sales in California was blamed on a $400 tax (which auto dealers offered to partially absorb)

The excuses and spin continue waiting and hoping for a better tomorrow - yet the foundations are crumbling - and individuals and corporations are being encouraged to add additional stress to the pourous foundation

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

cockerel1More jobs lost!#11128211/4/03; 09:44:41

Tyco to Cut 7,200 Jobs, Exit Businesses

By Tim McLaughlin

BOSTON (Reuters) - Tyco International Ltd. on Tuesday said it would eliminate 7,200 jobs, exit more than 50 business lines and sell its undersea fiber-optic cable network as it unwinds the far-flung empire built by former Chairman Dennis Kozlowski.

The Bermuda-based conglomerate said it took a charge of $1.2 billion in the fiscal fourth quarter, ended Sept. 30, for the restructuring and divestitures, leaving the company with a net loss for the period.

Tyco Chairman Edward Breen, hired last year to replace Kozlowski, who is on trial in a Manhattan criminal court on corruption charges, said the moves will accelerate Tyco's ability to bolster profits.

Wall Street appeared to agree, sending Tyco shares up 5 percent in early trade.

The business lines being exited have annual revenue of $2.1 billion, or about 6 percent of Tyco's total revenue base. The job cuts represent about 3 percent of the conglomerate's work force of 260,000.

In a conference call, Breen promised investors and analysts "solid" results in 2004 but acknowledged a number of problems at Tyco operations that make everything from hospital supplies to burglar alarms.

For example, he said the ADT security business in Europe is "bleeding."

"We know it will bleed through 2004 so we are looking at any other steps here," he said after an analyst suggested shutting it down.

Tyco's restructuring also includes consolidating 219 manufacturing, sales and distribution and other facilities.

For the fourth quarter, Tyco posted a net loss of $297.1 million, or 15 cents a share, compared with a net loss of $1.4 billion, or 72 cents a share, a year earlier.

Among the businesses it plans to sell is Tyco Global Network, an undersea fiber-optic cable business that has suffered billions of dollars of losses amid the telecommunications meltdown.

Excluding the undersea network, known as TyCom, Tyco said it expects to generate at least $400 million from the divestiture program.

TyCom had a pre-tax loss of $117 million in fiscal 2003, ended Sept. 30, while Tyco took charges of $942 million to reduce its carrying value on its books and to account for impaired goodwill.

Billed as the largest in the world, the network's market value soared in 2000 when Tyco sold a minority stake to investors through an initial public offering.

The sale of about 14 percent of TyCom generated a one-time gain of nearly $1.8 billion for Tyco. Manhattan prosecutors say Kozlowski used the successful IPO as justification to award nearly $100 million in bonus payments to himself and other executives and managers.

That sort of behavior is central to the prosecution's accusations against Kozlowski and former Tyco Chief Financial Officer Mark Swartz, who are accused of looting Tyco of $600 million through unauthorized pay and illicit stock sales. Their lawyers deny the charges.

Tyco shares were up $1.05 at $22.07 in morning trade on the New York Stock Exchange.

Belgian@Remarx#11128311/4/03; 09:48:42

First we define WHAT Freegold is, then we explain WHY it is needed and then we try to guess WHO and HOW it is going to made happen. WHAT > WHY > WHO > HOW.
Once again...the euro is NOT backed by Gold but is concepted to profit from FREEGOLD !
Read Aristotle 2/7/2000, 7:15:24MDT - msg ID:24589 USAgold-Archives.

misetichSEC: Fund fraud is widespread#11128411/4/03; 09:56:11


WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Fraudulent trading in mutual funds is far more widespread than previously thought, with one in four of the nation's largest broker-dealers engaging in illegal late trading of funds, federal securities regulators said Monday as Congress opened a series of hearings into fund-industry abuses.
The SEC based its findings on the results of a preliminary survey of the broker-dealers and the nation's 88 largest mutual fund companies. The probe was prompted by an investigation by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's office earlier this year.

SEC is a farce - year in and year out this Corporate governance regulatory body has stood idle and allowed the tramplings and investor pillage was conducted by CEO's, corporate insiders, investment houses, brokers etc

The reverbarating "noise" from the SEC is being prompted by Spitzer's actions

Very few are being prosecuted from the the thousands and thousands that have perpetrated investors fraud during the last several years

One can imagine the outcry and consequences of ANOTHER leg down during this SM bear rally

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

cockerel1Accounting Rules!#11128511/4/03; 09:58:55

EU wants bigger role in accounting standards body
Tuesday November 4, 10:36 am ET
By Lisa Jucca

BRUSSELS, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The EU's top financial regulator called on Tuesday for Europe to play a bigger role in the body that drafts global accounting standards, reflecting fears the body is dominated by the United States.

At a meeting late Monday, Internal Market Commissioner Frits Bolkestein told Paul Volcker, head of the trustees of the International Accounting Standard Board (IASB), that the EU was concerned about the way the board operates, his spokesman said.

The European Union has pledged its 7,000 listed firms will start using the upcoming bookkeeping rules from 2005 in a bid to improve the quality of financial reporting and prevent scandals such as Enron (Other OTC:ENRNQ.PK - News) and Ahold (Amsterdam:AHLN.AS - News).

But the EU has said the IASB does not sufficiently consider the needs of Europe's financial industry when drafting the rules rules even though the EU is the main backer of the whole plan.

"The Commissioner has outlined the EU concerns about the structure and the decision-making process of the IASB in accordance with a declaration by EU finance ministers last June," Bolkestein's spokesman Jonathan Todd told Reuters on Tuesday.

Todd said Bolkestein also raised the issue during a meeting of finance ministers that was mainly dealing with France's rising budget deficit.


The IASB's trustees are holding a two-day meeting in Brussels to discuss a revision of the board's constitution.

EU sources said the Commission believes the board is heavily influenced by Anglo-Saxon views even if the United States has said it is not going to endorse the global bookkeping rules.

The Commission sees the review of the IASB constitution as a chance to pressure the board into making changes that would appease EU nations, particularly France.

Volcker said on Tuesday he did not believe the EU would withdraw from its pledge to start using the standards.

"I am confident that the commitment to international accounting standards will be maintained," Volker told Reuters in an interview.

"(Bolkestein) expressed his concern that we consulted about the changes. We believe that we have had consultations."

The EU has been putting pressure on the IASB since July after French President Jacques Chirac wrote in a letter that certain standards would damage the EU economy -- in particular the banking industry -- by introducing greater volatility.

This move led to the EU refusing to adopt two key standards for the accounting of derivatives that are now being re-written.

But senior IASB officials have said the criticism stemmed from fears that the new rules would punch big holes in the balance sheets of certain companies.

"There is a lot of pressure in some quarters in Europe to reject the proposed change. Lurking behind it is a minority feeling that it would be better not to adopt the new accounting standards," Volcker said.

I know this is a "snide" remark, but accounting, in general brings out the fight in me.

France wants in on accounting changes?


They think of themselves as the "Artistic Elites" so, yes, it is very fitting that they would want to be involved in a purely mathematical business and further turn it into an art form.

Give me a break!

misetichNEW ORLEANS (CBS.MW) - Best lines from the best counter-trend conference thus far this year, from New Orleans:#11128611/4/03; 10:01:59


"We have a huge debt overhang. When deflation really hits, you will see very strong demand for gold and commodities," said Frank Veneroso, market strategist for the global policy committee of Allianz Dresdner Asset Management.
"People are getting fed up with the dollar," said Jim Rogers, a financial author and commodities specialist. "I don't get my advice from the Fed. I'm shorting stocks right now."

Savy advice from both, Rogers and Veneroso

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

cockerel1misetich - msg#: 111279#11128711/4/03; 10:01:59

My apologies, Sir for the duplication. I should have read the previous posts.

Again, my apologies!

misetichThis Can't Go On - By PAUL KRUGMAN#11128811/4/03; 10:15:49


The law comes with various wordings; my favorite is: "Things that can't go on forever, don't." Believe it or not, that's a useful reminder
The prime example I have hammered on in this column is, of course, the federal budget. Realistic budget projections say that current policies aren't remotely sustainable...............The bipartisan Concord Coalition and the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities concluded that under current policies, federal debt would rise by $5 trillion over the next decade. And then baby boomers will start collecting benefits, and our debt will really explode.
Such explosive growth in debt can't go on forever, and it won't. Yet our current leaders and their apologists insist that the problem will magically solve itself
But the day of reckoning seems closer on a different front.
In September the Congressional Budget Office analyzed how many U.S. soldiers could be kept in Iraq without extending tours beyond one year. The conclusion was that force levels would have to start dropping rapidly about five months from now, and that the forces in Iraq and Kuwait would eventually have to shrink by almost two-thirds. As the report explains, the Pentagon can use various expedients to maintain a larger force in Iraq, but all of these expedients would threaten to undermine our military readiness.
Yet we keep expecting a magic solution. We'll get European, Indian and Pakistani forces to help us! But since we went to war without international support, they're not interested. We'll bring in the Turks! But the Iraqi Governing Council itself is bitterly opposed. We'll engage in "Iraqification," creating local forces that take the place of American troops! Let's hope that works — but hope is not a plan.

Just as the federal government is in no immediate danger of running out of money, our forces in Iraq are in no danger of outright defeat. But in both cases, current policies appear to be unsustainable: we can't go on like this indefinitely. And things that can't go on forever, don't.

Right on Mr. Krugman! Right On! Things can't go on forever and they won't

Mr. Krugman made an excellent call during 92-94 predicting a collpase of SE Asian economies

Is Krugman right again?

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.An Invitation to Prospective Clients....#11128911/4/03; 10:20:27">News and Views
Clink!Accounting standards#11129011/4/03; 10:22:54

Sir Cockerel1, yes, you are right. That was a snide and, if I may say so, unjustified remark, unless you can make a more factual analysis on the differences in current accounting practices around the world. Of more interest to me from this article is why the United States (which has given us such recent SYSTEMIC gems as the S&L accounting mess) is not going to endorse the international standard.

Anyone ?

Clink!@ Misetich#11129111/4/03; 10:27:35

Just wanted to let you know I appreciate the volume of interesting tidbits you have been bringing to the Forum recently.
Thanks ! C!

misetichPaying the price of peace in Iraq#11129211/4/03; 10:42:06


The US government will spend $18.6bn on rebuilding Iraq. But will it be enough?
The bulk of the money - some $51bn - is going to fund the US military presence in Iraq, whose cost is running at nearly $4bn per month.

Earlier hopes by US officials that there would be substantial reductions in US forces on the ground have not been realised, with the 180,000 US personnel likely to remain in the region for some time to come.

And the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the total cost of the US military occupation of Iraq could range from $85bn to $200bn over the next ten years, depending how quickly US forces are withdrawn.
By then it may become clear whether the funding gap (between the $25bn pledged for non-oil reconstruction and the estimated needs of $35bn) can be met by increased oil revenues.

The US led beg for donors session recently held in Spain resulted in mostly lip service from other world countries - Japan committed 5-6 billions, other major "donors" were the IMF and Worldbak thus the US taxpayer is stuck footing the bill for an ill advised invasion

US general public has not yet realized the costs and burden of this erroneous Iraqi path - yet each passing day the stark reality of fierce Iraqi resistance is beginning to hit home

Even though, the Feds, in an unparalled media censuring coverage have somewhat managed to keep US citizens approval rating up, (wonder though if sentiment of support would change if they showed the daily stream of coffins arising out of Iraq - interesting Bush has reportedly not attended GI's funerals) the odds are against them

As Iraq's civilian resistance continues it wouldn't surprise if the oil pipeline infrastrure will be a target of destruction thus the much counted upon revenues to counter the costs of occupation will not materialize thus adding the burden to the US and its ever growing fiscal deficit

Is Iraq the New Vietnam? or is it the Afganistan version of the USSR invasion which led to the demise of the Red Superpower?

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

cockerel1Sir Clink and accountants!#11129311/4/03; 10:45:50

Sir Clink!

Accounting practices are different throughout the world because of one thing only.


The "art" of manipulating the numbers becomes more so, as it effects the bottom line.

Having held the position of V.P. in a publicly traded company, having also owned my own construction company for a number of years, and being married to an Accountant, certainly allows me to speak with some authority.

ZhishengEuro/dollar and gold this morning.#11129411/4/03; 10:47:19

The Euro has been working its way this morning, more or less linearly, back up to $1.15. And gold seems to be gravitating up to $380, in spite of the big shorts pushing it down every so often.
cockerel1Barrick and Blanchard - update!#11129511/4/03; 10:59:29

Corporation and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. to Move Into Discovery Phase

NEW ORLEANS, Nov 4, 2003 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ --Blanchard and Company, Inc. received word today from the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Louisiana that its case against Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX; Toronto) and J.P.Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) once again may continue into the discovery phase of the lawsuit.
The Court denied Defendants' Motions for Reconsideration of Judge Berrigan's September 3rd ruling.
Blanchard's Complaint that Barrick and Morgan have violated U.S. antitrust laws by unlawfully combining to manipulate the price of gold and to monopolize the market in gold was brought in December of 2002.
In denying Defendants' Motions, the Court stated that, "Motions made pursuant to Rules 59(e) and 60(b) ... are not intended to relitigate issues properly before the Court when it issued the challenged ruling, or raise newfacts or arguments that were not then before the Court ...
This is what Defendants have attempted to do here. While the Defendants are understandably dissatisfied with a ruling not in their favor, this is neither the time nor method to raise these issues again."
Blanchard's CEO, Donald W. Doyle, Jr., stated that, "Barrick and Morgan appear to have lost the chance to delay the discovery phase of the case any further." Having already served J.P. Morgan and Barrick with its requests for production, Blanchard expects to move into the discovery process immediately.

Comment: Do not have link. Will try and locate for later post.

cockerel1Barrick and Blanchard - Link!#11129711/4/03; 11:22:50

For those interested.
misetichJapan: the rising specter of unemployment#11129811/4/03; 11:23:44


TOKYO - Higher labor costs, yen appreciation resulting in the outsourcing of production facilities and growing computerization all point to a long-term structural increase in Japan's jobless. Due to heavy losses in labor-intensive sectors, companies are planning further outsourcing of their production facilities to countries where labor costs are much lower.

Japan's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stood at 5.1 percent in August, the lowest level since the 5 percent posted in August 2001, according to a report released by the Ministry of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications. That means that during the last two years, employment has not improved
The weakening dollar and the stronger yen had not taken their toll as the Bank of Japan heavily intervened in the currency market. But after John Snow, the United States Treasury Secretary, criticized Japanese exchange rate intervention in a congressional committee in Washington, the yen rose as high 107 yen to US$1, breaking the psychological barrier of 108 yen. Speculation is for a trend toward 105 yen and more yen appreciation shortly.
Although the banking sector has been the main beneficiary of the recent stock market rise, some banks like the Resona Group expect to cut employees, with the group dismissing some 4,000 employees,reducing its staff from 19,000 to 15,000 by March 2005
The banks are not alone in their restructuring plans. Sanyo is emblematic of the new and unsettling Japan......Other companies in the same or related sectors like Futjitsu and Hitachi have also announced losses.........
That means that if Japan's companies are to become more competitive, the job cuts will continue, changing long-held standards of Japanese society. Those changes are bound to be painful for a society not used to pain.

As the Yen appreciates against the US $ (inevitable ) Japan's financial woes and SE Asia as a whole will accelerate

The US dependence on Japan, SE Asia, to keep on purchasing Treasury and agency debt (already reaching gargantulan proportions) is spelling doomsday for the US $ and low IR - (An increase in IR to attract overseas investments in the US will trigger and burst the Housing bubble - and increasing costs to consumers and a reduction in discretionary spending

China - Friend or foe?
EU led by Germany and France - Friend or foe?
Russia - friend or foe?
Muslims countries - friend or foe?

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

Gandalf the WhiteSir Soc --- You have to see this ! PERFECT for post Halloween -- <;-)#11129911/4/03; 11:44:19$GOLD,PLTB[PA][DA][F!3!!]&pref=G

The GOLD P&F chart has the RED REVERSAL shown !
Next comes the little GREEN "X"'s ROCKET !
$396. $396. $396.

Mountain Top(No Subject)#11130011/4/03; 12:01:05

I have been reading and more or less following the discussions on this forum for about three years now. Except for entering (and losing) an occasional guessing contest, I have not had much to contribute to this mostly erudite forum. There are those on this forum who (in my inexpert opinion) seek to 'make it big' in gold. They tend to grumble and complain when ever that goal seems to be eluding them or takes too long.

I think (again, in my inexpert opinion) that perhaps they do not see gold in its true light. It has been said here, many times, that gold is a _preserver_ of wealth. The dollar is dying and something else must be exchanged for whatever remains of the dollar's value in order to preserve that remaining value. Rather than viewing gold as a multiplier of value, it should be viewed as a keeper of that value.

There is no linear relation between the dollar and gold at the present time because of manipulation of them both. For a while at least, as long as 'cheap gold' is available. an advantage is to be gained by purchasing gold but, inevitably, its true value in dollars must become manifest.

That is when the sole advantage of gold purchases will be to lock in the value represented in dollars at that instant in time and protect wealth against the further erosion of the fiat. This is the true function and purpose of the purchase of gold.

Buongiorno!American troubles, Iraq and Afi-land #11130111/4/03; 12:23:36

Am I the only American who is getting a little weary of the drumbeat of criticism of US policy here? Mostly from our Euro-geniuses who have not managed fifty years of peace since Rome fell--until we set up NATO to keep a lid on things.

We were criticised by these same people for being "too late" to the parties held in WWI and WWII. Now, we catch heck for being "too early" other places. (Can't please 'em all.)

Or for not relying upon the feckless UN to step in after twelve years of doing nothing in they failed to do in Bosnia recently, and in keeping the Hutu and Tutsie tribes from hacking each other to pieces.

Or, president Bush does not attend enough military funerals--we have buried over 3,000 of our own in the past two years since 9-11--just how many funerals would satisfy your elitist standards?

If someone has a clue--would there be a useful suggestion here? Shall we bring back the Taliban? Perhaps. But I need to hear that from the ladies of that land, not some twit with a whistle. How about Iraq? Saddam is still alive. Shall we bring him back? --again, no votes from the peanut gallery, or from those who did not realize the threat of Hitler until sometime between the fall of Paris and Dunkirk.

"Schadenfreunde", (the gleeful recounting of difficulties)presented in sad tones, has no place here, IMO. We get plenty of that in the liberal press. Perhaps when dozens of our finest die far away, there is an impact upon gold. Perhaps not. Perhaps the US will fail. Big time. Careful, though, you may not like what you seem to wish for!

The basic truth of gold is rising to the surface. Can we just try to keep out eye on the ball and let someone else watch the cheerleaders on other forums?

Chris PowellBarrick wins power to extract evidence from Barrick and Morgan Chase#11130211/4/03; 12:38:30

Blanchard lawsuit against Barrick and Morgan wins
power to extract evidence, moving the case into the
"discovery phase." And oh, what may be discovered!

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Magister AureliusBuongiorno post #111301#11130311/4/03; 12:44:18

Thank you Buongiorno! You are not alone, but some of us have just given up the fight. There are too many posts to respond to with my limited lunchtime at work, so I just read what I can about gold and don't bother replying to those convinced that the US is the ultimate danger to peace in the world.

What I would like to see is if anyone has any information on exploration news that would give goldbugs and silverfish big gummy grins?

I do have a suggestion for the more politically minded on the forum though... if you are concerned about the gold and silver supply and are politically minded, why not begin political action and letter writing to get the regulations that strangle domestic mining in the US alleviated?

misetichBuongiorno! (11/4/03; 12:23:36MT - msg#: 111301)#11130411/4/03; 13:34:01

Good day to you Mr. Buongiorno!

Obviously my posts have hit a nerve -

You asked

Am I the only American who is getting a little weary of the drumbeat of criticism of US policy here?


The two posts, dealing with Iraq and Afghanistan - addressed the economic impact of the pre-emptive strikes military and political decisions on both Iraq and Afhanistan and contemplated in the other counties classified as the Axis of Evil - Iran and North Korea

The economic impact of those military decisions have a tremendous impact on the US economy and the US $ and corresponding effect on GOLD,. The costs are rising beyond expectations. The Afghanistan article published in AsiaTimes was posted to illustrate and provide a balance of coverage that American media does not accentuate.

The intend to post a link to the article was in the nature of pointing out the ECONOMIC COSTS OF WAR.

Several months ago President Bush declared Victory against Iraq, yet several months later, yet months later it appears that it is a quagmire and things getting worse.

The point of the disucsions was strictly economics and not intended to be political.

Economist Paul Krugman says the same thing- So does Buffet, so does Gross.

Are they Un-American?

Why is it that a when a 'different view' is expressed immediately is pounced upon to censure it? That's not the American way Mr. Buongiorno!

Buenasera to you and Ciao

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

GoldiloxLost links and political SPAM#11130511/4/03; 13:40:26

I recently installed new OS and Browser and carelessly lost some very useful links. One was a website collection of international news links I got from a post in this forum with a name that begins with Chaos-xxxx. Can anyone refresh my memory on that one? I miss it.

I thoroughly appreciate the information here, but as suggested by earlier posters, we seem to be increasing our political preaching at each other (I am not guiltless here, so the colective "we" is appropriate). If a lot of us are noticing it, it is probably both true and counter productive.

This seems to be a really volatile time for PMs and related investments, so the more we focus the bandwidth in this endeavor, the more we honor our hosts' intended purpose.

ShermagGoldilox#11130611/4/03; 14:03:53

This the one?
neer-do-wellmagister aurelius#11130711/4/03; 14:28:25

Seems to the less mined the better, for those of us who are "holding " now. Relaxing enviornmental standards would be the worst possible course of action.

Buongiorno.....Since when did politics and war not affect gold? Gold has been the engine of both since the pharaohs of Egypt. I finally put most of my assets into gold when gwb exposed his agenda, it came right close to home for me. As for gwb I don't understand why he doesn't order a couple of billion box cutters, we could rule the world!

Socrates964Sir Gandalf#11130911/4/03; 14:41:05

Indeed, only your P&F boys have odd criteria for filling in their boxes.

In my book, the 392 box is only filled if POG trades at 396.00 or higher, so the 388 box should have been filled in due to the fact that gold traded over 392, but not the 392 box, as gold never traded over 396. Now, the 3 box reversal is inked in after gold trades below 376.00, since the first box is the 384 box, which is filled by a trade at 383.99 or lower, the 2nd is the 380 box (filled by a trade at 379.99 or lower) and the 3rd is the 376 (filled by a trade at 375.99 or lower).

As fasr as I can see, gold never traded below 364, so the low box should be the 368 box - we have 5 columns, so we go 15 boxes up, which should fill the 428, i.e. gold will actually peak around 432.

This may all seem like pedantry on my part, but I believe that you need to know precisely whether your TA methods are working or not.

Buongiorno!The American Way#11131011/4/03; 14:44:00

Senior Misetich, Ah! Yes! Criticism IS the American way, and we get plenty of it, some deserved. However, my point was to ask for constructive alternatives to what is now being done. To simply be "a critic" lends little to the discussion. Most of us are well qualified to do this. That, in itself, is neither American, nor un-American, IMO. But, finding workable solutions to complicated problems--now yer talkin'!

Perhaps our Italian friends would get a bottle of nice wine, find a little shade, and contemplate the nicer things. They don't hold much stock in politics, and they may well be correct. Add a few gold coins to this tranquil scene, and we may be on the right path. I am afraid our shouting will not amount to much in the end, anyway, my friend. But our gold will.


RemarxVarious and sundry#11131111/4/03; 15:01:53

@Buongiorno! I am an American who feels there is far too little criticism of our foreign policy. I believe that our administration now includes war criminals. I don't think that makes the Europeans any less imperialistic than we, but they are certainly not in the forefront of aggression now as we are. I welcome support from friends in Europe. Only through worldwide efforts can we stop the building of the latest empire. Gold will provide financial security, but it is not an amulet that provides safety from terrorists.

@Belgian and Aristotle. Thanks for the leads. I will read Ari's message as soon as I can get to it.

misetich(No Subject)#11131211/4/03; 15:52:54

Signor Buongiorno!

Each in our way attempts to contribute to a an ever learning process. We're fortunate, thanks to our good natured host have an opportunity to learn on the value of gold investments through the vehicle such as the forum.

The "criticism" if interpreted as such, is intended to stimulate and foster discussion on complex issues that affect economics and monetary issues, which GOLD plays a major role.

GOLD is the ultimate storage of wealth, to which investors flock to during times of economic turbulence.

GOLD itself may be described as a "critic" of the political and monetary decision making process.

GOLD shouts loudly and lets itself be heard when poor blunderous decision are made by politicos and bankers. It did so boisterously during the '70's in response to various factors that led to Staglation.

Signor Buongiorno! Chin - Chin to you with a good glass of Chianti

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

CoBra(too)New Orleans #11131311/4/03; 16:02:39

It was a memorable conference. Probably the best ever, as most of the attendees have felt. This is just a fast hello, as I'll be on the road for another 2 weeks.

The speakers have been superb and to also add a short quote to misetich's Frank
Venoroso's and Jim Roger's quote I'll pick Bill Bonner's:
"The Americans are buying things they don't need with money they don't have." (abbr.)

Best cb2

PS: @ MK -Great meeting you and your fine team and thanks again.

GoldiloxLost Link#11131411/4/03; 16:20:32


YES! Thanks much!

R PowellSilvercollector#11131511/4/03; 17:04:41

Hey, 111269, great post! You've expressed the thoughts of many of us, I believe.

As for my thoughts on what constitutes an advisor or advice, please take them with a grain of salt and picture me grinning when I wrote those words. I tend to look for facts, numbers and information but I also listen (as do most of us I suspect) to opinions. It's often hard to get one without the other, other than perhaps USDA crop reports. However, I'm careful to differentiate between the two.

I'm going to agree with you in thinking that the dollar probably will not crash or burn. I never thought it would but it may, in light of the Fed.'s monetary inflation, devalue against any and/or all objects that are priced in dollars and cents. I wonder also if all the fiat that has been exported, to balance our trade deficits over these last many years, will return one fine day. Or perhaps it will be recycled into long term paper debt instruments into the forseeable future.? I tend to believe everything has a way of surfacing in time. When, if ever, does the debt on all levels have to be settled? Perhaps the Chinese might want to save enough and then settle by buying California?

As for putting all your investment eggs in one basket, please be careful. Wealth stored in gold is a fine idea but I gether from your words that you, like myself, are "invested" in gold (silver, cotton, corn, soybeanoil, etc.) to make money. As a trader I'd warn that too much money invested in one place intensifies risk, some foreseeable and some not. Livermore called these risks the unknown and the unknowable. Whether in physical or in the paper game, such a great percentage in one place should be hedged, at least partially. Play the game as if you are trying NOT to lose rather than that you are trying to win. If you can master that, the profits will come. Also, I find the precious metals markets much more difficult and unpredictable than most. I attribute this to their political, monetary and statistically unreliable nature. They are a great puzzle! But, if your primary motive is to gain through trading, try the grain markets, they're much easier, that is, they have discernable supplies and demand, some weather risks and react logically more often.

If you view gold primarily as a money making investment, I might suggest that other opportunities also exist. I find commodity volatility a trading asset and have been having a good time lately. I care not whether I trade long or short but I do believe that gold is in a long term uptrend and will remain so probably for the rest of my lifetime. Trying to pick either long term or short term tops or bottoms in any market is extremely difficult (and usually not profitable). Sometimes even making money knowing the long term trend is difficult! This is why many are far wiser to simply buy the physical as far as metals are concerned. Wishing that, hoping that or even knowing that the POG is going higher and making money by that move are two entirely different operations. The necessary knowledge acquired to know and then the implimentation of a successful trade are two separate operations requiring different skills (and luck!).

Most everyone knows my thoughts on silver. With that as prelude, I can safely add that patience is also required. I hope this is of some help. I often feel exactly the same sense of frustration that your words communicated, you are certainly not alone. Sometimes chicken, and sometimes feathers.

R PowellJ-Bullion#11131611/4/03; 17:25:10

On silver you wrote, "I know I'm missing something in that market."

When you discover what it is, please tell me!

Butler and others have cried "manipulation" and decided to blame the derivatives markets for silver's low price. Sophisticated derivatives (puts, calls, the whole mess) were traded in the coffee houses of England back in the days when the fastest ships were wind powered and the hot stock was the East India Co. That there are contracts for more of the commodity than exists is not uncommon in silver or many other markets.

Having to find some resolution to the ever declining
remaining visable supply and the fact that it appears to be reaching a critical level, I've decided to conclude that the silver market trades in the complete absence of any fundamental considerations. I don't believe this to be as preposterous as it first appears. Many markets are only moved by fundamental when these numbers shock the market (as soybeans did this year). When has silver ever HAD to consider not enough silver? When was price rationing last needed? Why then should it? Silver, like all markets, feels no obligation whatsoever, to react according to any forces other than investor sentiment which may be astute or totally insane. One day this sentiment will change and, perhaps the ignored supply/demand situation is now so far out of kilter that the market will be forced to react violently. I believe so, so I wait.

silvesterSilver Eagles#11131711/4/03; 17:28:08

An ad in the back of an outdoors magazine caught my attention today. The ad stated that no silver eagles would be minted after 2003. Anyone know more about this?
R PowellSocrates 964#11131811/4/03; 17:36:28

About post 111274, yes sir, and well said!
BoilermakerRussian Oil Policy#11131911/4/03; 17:36:34

Here is a snip from this interesting article:

"In the history of tax rebellions, poor people generally stay aloof. They die in swarms, but usually from disease, not from protest. Those who are prepared to fight for fiscal justice – attacking either the king or his noblemen – usually come from the small property classes, either well-off farmers, or tradesmen, artisans and small business owners. They aren't so poor they don't pay any tax. Nor are they wealthy enough to buy their way into the exemptions of the aristocracy. So they are the meat in the fiscal sandwich. When kings fear for their lives, these are the people who pay for his peace of mind. But their potential for disloyalty is always on his mind. The development of European bureaucracy, with all its record-keeping, inspectors, and sanctions, is the evolution of squeezing the meat in the sandwich to the limit.

The current conflict between President Vladimir Putin and the oligarchs is unique, because for the first time in Russian history, it is the king who is trying to dismantle the tax exemptions. He is doing that without any show of support from the small business groups who stand to benefit most. They are too afraid of Putin's weakness, and of the oligarchs’ vindictiveness, to take his side, at least for now. Those who ought to be their natural representatives, deputies of the Duma Tax Committee, are hirelings of the oligarchs. Yevgeny Primakov at the Chamber of Commerce, and Arkady Volsky at the Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs ought to speak for them, but they don't dare to raise their voices either.

What Mikhail Khodorkovsky has done by trying to sell a 40% stake of the oil company Yukos to ExxonMobil is nothing less than cashing out the capital gain on all the Yeltsin dispensations from which he benefitted, before next March. The timing is short and the method desperate, because Khodorkovsky and his fellow oligarchs are certain that Putin will introduce the necessary taxes to redistribute the wealth in the realm, once he is reelected."

Putin once seemed to be going along with the Bush US agenda but now is clearly going in a different direction. Since the Iraqi invasion he has started to rearrange Soviet oil policy as evidenced by meetings with the Saudis, talking Euro vs. $US and now stomping on Khodorkovsky for trying to sell Russian oil assets to US companies. This is another nail in the $US coffin.


silvercollectorThank you, thank you, thank you!#11132011/4/03; 17:39:08

Thanks for all the positive (and negative) criticism today. I have finished Bill Bonner's wonderful book and now I am ready to put my money where my BIG FAT mouth is!

Bill Bonner's latest book "Financial Reckoning Day" is awesome. He winds it up and winds it up through 273 pages and then hits the home run in the last 3 pages. Without spoiling the show, his last 2 mini-chapters are called, "The Trade of the Decade" & "How to Relax and Enjoy the End of the World". I would love to quote and paraphrase the man but that would be too much fun!!!!

Go buy the book!

So without further adieu I must say good-bye, see you in 2010 and in departing I leave a baby-baby tidbit from Bill, "...paper money will not continue to outperform the real thing -gold- forever..."

Ha ha! Thanks Bill!

Gold, get you some and paper, get you none! See ya in paradise.

love & luck,


TomJIlWhat scares me + political discussion#11132111/4/03; 17:41:11

I missed the last price-guessing deal, but always intended to mention the thing which I am most uncompfortable with vis-a-vis my gold ownership today and into th future:

I sense that relatively few people in the US currently own gold, though I suspect that it is significantly more common amoung the more wealthy. I do buy right into the proposal that 'paper' wealth is a construct that provides a mechanism for a handfull of people to control the masses, and physical gold ownership on the part of individuals throws a monkey wrench into the works. For that reason, I am concerened that as the need for control increases, and more regular people see gold as a way to preserve wealth, means of managing the threat will be forthcomming. I could imagine it taking the form of excessive taxes on transfers and that sort of thing...or worse. So, what scares me? Since relatively few people will have much to lose, and since they may be unhappy about other problems (like job loss and decreased purchasing power) and on the lookout for scapegoats, I could imagine significant popular support for legislation which makes life less pleasant for those who hold physical gold.

As for the more political posts, they don't bother me personally though there are a wide range of forums and newsgroups which are dedicated to such discussions and it is to them that I go when I'm interested in that topic. I do believe that most of the political posts I've seen on this forum tie closely to the topic of gold ownership through a chain such as:

poor political decisions ->
more economic enemies/fewer economic allies ->
economy fails/gold ownership worthwhile.

BTW, I had zero interest in gold until several months before the war, and it was my lack of confidence in the political leadership which sparked my interest. Today I have only enough dollars to take care of the next 6 months or so of projects and the rest is in physical gold. If nothing else, at least I sleep soundly at night :)

industrialGoldsilvester (11/4/03; 17:28:08MT - msg#: 111317)#11132211/4/03; 18:14:02

About 2003 silver eagles :
I just bought some silver eagles (2003's); and
I heard that as well, from my father, who read it on a web site. He didn't recall exactly where though.

Why would the US govt just stop making them? Anyone have any theories on that?

ArcticfoxWhat the future can hold..By: Jason Hommel#11132311/4/03; 18:26:54

Silver stock investors must protect their investments by selling silver stocks that go up, and buying physical silver with some of the gains. If silver stocks get overvalued, like Hecla mining, you would be better off owning real silver. I strongly recommend that you put and keep at least 20% of your portfolio in physical silver.

What is the point of owning physical silver if certain silver stocks will appreciate and go up in value much faster than silver? The point is that silver is liquid. Silver is payment in full. Silver is not a promise. There are many inherent risks in owning stocks. Stocks can go bankrupt by debt or lack of financing or bad management. And if they do get financing, your share of the company is reduced as they issue more shares. The value of silver can never go to zero.

With the liquidity of owning real silver, you can be more brave and balance out the remainder of your portfolio with the less liquid smaller market cap silver stocks with greater potential. I strongly recommend holding 20% of your portfolio in physical silver, and increasing that percentage as the silver stocks move up, so you are continually or periodically selling some silver stocks for physical silver. This is called "profit taking".

Never borrow money to buy silver stocks. The price swings can bankrupt you. Avoid debt, and you will avoid the problems that destroyed the Hunt Brothers.

I don't think the lack of liquidity of the silver stocks is too much of a concern at the moment. I don't think there will be any need to sell them any time soon. There is not a need to "exit" owning silver stocks. There is a need to "exit" owning bonds and dollars, and where will they go to exit that? They will invest here, in gold and silver, and in the gold and silver stocks.

Why is the liquidity of physical silver important? Various reasons. It is "out of the system". It appreciates tax-free. They can't know or track when you bought it, so they can't levy capital gains on it when you sell it. You can transfer silver across generations, tax free, again because it is out of the system.

With physical silver in hand, when paper cash goes up in smoke, you will have money for food and fuel and life's necessities. Don't store your silver in the bank. Get a home safe, and a gun, and maybe dogs, or other home security and privacy measures.

Silver stock owners may need physical silver for the final round of private placements to move a silver property holding company into production--after paper money exists no more. If the current silver stock investors have no silver (no money) then they are at the mercy of the owners of physical silver (and gold) that may be the only money left after a monetary collapse.

I strongly suspect that a silver investor will not part with his silver to invest in a high priced asset like an over valued silver explorer to help with the final round of financing. A silver investor today is a seeker of low value. Therefore, if you are invested strictly in silver stocks, the day might come when your silver stock is over valued, but nobody is able to finance the final stage of development because there is no money (after a dollar crash) and no silver investor ready to part with his silver. So, keep that in mind, and buy physical silver along with the low priced silver stocks today.

What are the benefits and drawbacks of various kinds of physical metal?

1000 oz. silver COMEX bar: The benefit is it is a "good delivery" bar for industrial use, and that this is among the cheapest way to buy silver if you stand for delivery of a futures contract--you'll get five of them. The other benefit is that the bar will not need to be "refined" when selling it, because it already is .999 fine. The drawback is the futures contract may default, and you might get nothing or a "cash settlement" while waiting. But you can also buy them direct and pay about a 3% commission. This is what Ted Butler moans about that silver investors face either premiums or delays, or defaults. Another drawback is you have to ship it from New York, and then back again. Shipping out costs 3%. It will be a much less percentage to ship it back after the price goes up! I have heard that the "assay" fee that they will attempt to scare you about if you remove the bars from the exchanges can be free at some depositories. The other drawback is they weigh just under 70 pounds each. You have to be strong or find someone who is strong to carry them. And few carriers will ship them. Another drawback is the assay for your self. How can you tell they didn't rip you off? The final drawback is the bars are ugly with big pits or dents in them.

100 oz. silver bars: The benefit is they look nice and are convenient to carry and count, weighing about 7 lbs each. And no "coin counting" which is convenient. Another benefit is that they should "ring test" quite easily. Bang with a wooded mallet, and you should hear a nice ring. Lead won't ring. The drawback is they usually cost 10% above the spot price. Another drawback is that if silver rises in value to very high prices, these bars will be worth a lot, and will be unable to be used to buy every day items. Imagine $250/oz silver x 100 oz. It would be like a $25,000 value. Not very useful for typical commerce. You might use one to buy a house if home values collapse, I suppose, or a nice car. So it's a liquid investment, but not useful for every day liquidity like buying food or gas. (But neither is stock.)

Silver US Eagles: These are not "bullion" because the price is so much more
expensive over the silver price, usually about $1.50 extra over the spot price at the cheapest. But they look nice and are .999 fine.

Silver "rounds". These are private mint one ounce coins .999 fine. Much cheaper than Eagles, but still might cost about 10% above the spot bullion price.

US coin 1964 or earlier, called "90% junk silver": The benefit is the coins are very recognizable and divisible into small units. Also, you can usually buy them very close to the spot price, so this is among the cheapest silver you can buy, if not the 1000 oz. bars. The drawback is you have to count them, or the dealer has to--but they don't charge for that.

Reports are that in January 1980, in the height of the silver spike, you could not get a good price when selling 90% silver because the refineries were backed up, and it might be months before they would pay out. But you also could not get a good price for a COMEX bar, because COMEX was closed to all new contracts, it was "liquidation only". So there was no place to quickly trade.

I'm not worried about those concerns, because I don't think you will ever have to quickly trade out of silver. I don't believe we will have "the spike up" like last time. I agree with Ted Butler that the silver shortage will not be quickly or easily filled, especially not when monetary demand comes back into the picture. I think we will have at least a generation of very high silver prices. An entire generation around the world who will swear they will never be deceived by the fraud of paper money again. This will be a generation of unprecedented prosperity and peace for all. Frauds and debts will be wiped out, and people will be free economically, and will be more able to make rational economic calculations in business and trading. Gold, silver, and honest exchange encourages trade, which increases specialization, boosts production, and thus increases the standards of living for everyone. The rise of the price of precious metals is not "bad for the economy" as they always tell us. That's a lie. Precious metals are good for the economy.

You will need physical metal for trading. Without it, you are "broke" and have nothing, and your portfolio is not properly and safely diversified.

You could lose your home without physical metal. In a severe economic pinch and monetary crash, physical metal could dry up and be completely unavailable, even if you sold stock. It might take some time for the markets to resume again. Before 1914, the Stock Exchange in New York was closed for 6 months. That could happen again. And how would you sell your silver stocks for food during that time? You couldn't! What if the stock markets closed, paper burned completely, the banks closed, and to survive, the government levied a tax on homes payable only in precious metal? That's the pattern of history. Homes and food would be available only to those who had precious metal. Large landowners with no metal could go bust and be on the streets with nothing.

You must have physical metal, and take profits in physical metal, and have the means to physically defend your wealth. Liquidity of precious metal is life.

I may end up selling silver for gold, some at the 10:1 silver to gold ratio, some more at 5:1, and I would sell any silver remaining at a 1:1 ratio, that we may hit during a supply/demand crunch during a paper money collapse.

a nation of one...#11132411/4/03; 18:35:22

Some say that gold is only a preserver of wealth, and nothing else. I say that gold is whatever you can manage
to make of it.

adminNews & Views On-Line #11132511/4/03; 19:31:00


We invite you to visit now and visit often for updates on the news & views affecting the gold market.

Dollar Bill*>*#11132611/4/03; 20:22:47

Sir Boilermaker,
In your good Russian issue post, the religious issue didnt come up. May I mention it.
The Russians, as reported in the Financial Times ( I believe), see lots of Jews leaving Russia in a steady stream for years. They are viewed as not really Russians but temporary citizens. According to the report, most of the Oligarchs(sp), are Jewish.
Russians are resentful. 8 billion for that guy, most Russians are dirt poor.

Sir Misetich, the complainers have a bit of a point, in one of your posts you did the American liberal media proud.
Not all of us see it as Time or Newsweek wants us to.

Druid(No Subject)#11132711/4/03; 20:50:19


Nov 4: We are at a price spike that has never been seen before, the highest-rate market of all time. It has caused a total disruption in the way that ships are being positioned. - Tom Cutler, a shipping analyst for Clarksons

Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad - Euripides

"Choose the form of the Destructor" intoned Gozer the Gozerian as the climax of the film Ghostbusters unfolded on the screen. I remember the film well from my college days, to the point where I can ruin the film for those who haven't seen it by beating the characters to their lines, which suggests that I spent a few too many hours in front of the boob tube then the library during my education. Little did I realize at the time that Euripides' words might have informed this facetious view of NY as a modern day Babylon. As funny as you might find the film, the "choose the form of the destructor" metaphor might have other than humorous merit.

The early Greek Philosopher Heraclitus is famed for his doctrine of flux, captured in the following; On those stepping into the rivers staying the same other and other waters flow. While many Philosophers including Plato and Aristotle took issue with his view as a doctrine of metaphysics, there is a sense in which Heraclitus' view can be illuminating. Replacing the river with the United States leads us to contemplate that while some see continuity the underlying reality of the nation, and every other nation, is constantly in flux. Populations change in quantity and quality, territory controlled expands and contracts, economic models are used and discarded, resources are controlled by different groups and modes of political control wax and wane. Yet, many think of the US as a continuous entity.

It is to the internal process of change, like the ever changing water by which a river is comprised that I would like to draw your attention today. How is it that this change tends to occur? While adherents to the heroic variant of humanism tends to focus on the virtues of the "new boss" I find it more instructive to examine the errors of the "old boss." Certainly there have been times in the past where new regimes have proven far less capable than those which preceded them, yet still the mandate of heaven, as the Chinese refer to the phenomenon, passes from group to group.

While one can simply argue that the old gang who lost control "got it wrong," I tend to think that it isn't solely error which dooms regimes but error which flows from rising sophistication, in the Greek sense. Did the Nixon gang get booted because they countenanced a break-in at Watergate or was it the choice to impose economic controls on the country, denying the previous faith in free markets and hard money? That is, did the Nixon team choose the form of their destructor when the closed the gold window and imposed wage and price controls? Did the LBJ team recognize their loss of the mandate of heaven when the truth of Vietnam became too obvious to ignore? Moving back in history, did the Catholic Church begin to lose its mandate in denying the heliocentric view of Copernicus and Galileo?

It is well said, I believe, that trust is hard won but easily lost, a maxim the mutual fund industry of the US may be about to learn the hard way. It is also said that you can fool all of the people some of the time and some of the people all of the time but you can't fool all of the people, all of the time. This is to argue that eventually the truth will come out. Regimes which try to stop that process tend to implode on their denial of reality as efforts to obfuscate the truth eventually destroys their lever of control, trust, while regimes which accept the new reality tend to survive to fight another day.

As today is election day in the US, thoughts of regime change seem, to me anyway, appropriate, although perhaps not in the sense implied by the electoral process. In my view, a change in regime involves not just a change in person(s) in charge but a change in the spirits which animate them. It is, within this frame of mind, only in hindsight that one can note the change. Many, including myself, were hopeful that the Bush team's win in 2000 might inspire such a change but in retrospect, at least within the economic sphere, the policies remain largely the same.

This view would be vigorously debated by many, including Paul Krugman. I am often saddened to read Krugman as I find his bias to one side of the political spectrum in the US distorts what is to me a remarkable ability to articulate the economic issues du jour. Perhaps Heraclitus' unity of opposites might be of help to Mr. Krugman is discerning that what might seem opposing forces might be identical forces with different names.

In that regard, the small changes in marginal tax rates and choice of collectives to protect or punish which seem to denote the differences between Democrat and Republican might be seen from a broader perspective. Should we have income tax? Can the state organize society in a more durable fashion that people might organize themselves? Should the US impose its world view on other nations? Should the US find itself in yet another down cycle, the irony of the hours of debate spent on, for example, this or that marginal tax rate for this or that demographic, when the size of government or choice of monetary standard was the problem will be rich.

So, which form will the Destructor take? It depends in part on which lie the gang in charge chooses to hang their reputation. Regardless of the level of the stockmarket, further increases in the Iraqi/Afghani death toll will erode public support in the face of administration claims to the contrary. Regardless of the level of reported GDP, rising inflation and unemployment will put the lie to claims that the economy is improving. Regardless of the inevitability rhetoric of globalization adherents, rising transport costs AND rising unemployment in both exporter and importer, such as is happening now on both sides of the Pacific, will expose their misconceptions.

So we wait for the catalyst to emerge. While we wait let's close with the Ghostbusters version of the impotence of rulers to the forces of nature lesson of King Canute.
Ray Stanz: Gozer the Gozerian: good evening. As a duly designated representative of the City, County and State of New York, I order you to cease any and all supernatural activities and return forthwith to your place of origin or to the nearest convenient parallel dimension.
Dr. Peter Venkman: That ought to do it, thanks very much Ray.

Druid: It's probably my shortcomings but I can't seem to separate political thought from economic thought. Would not "free gold" be a solution? Maybe not "thee" solution but a step closer in the right direction.

Gandalf the WhiteNICE JUMP, SPIKE !!!#11132811/4/03; 21:48:18

Now wait for SPOT to catchup !

otish mountainAccounting Rules as posted by Cockerell #111285#11132911/4/03; 21:53:23

How amusing,

The European Union has pledged its 7,000 listed firms will start using the upcoming bookkeeping rules from 2005 in a bid to improve the quality of financial reporting and prevent scandals such as Enron (Other OTC:ENRNQ.PK - News) and Ahold (Amsterdam:AHLN.AS - News).

The National Hockey League has agreed with its member teams on a list of new rules for 2005 season to enhance the flow and speed of the game and improve the viewing quality for the public.

Accounting is not a game and is based on the pure science of mathematics. Lucas Paciuoli the 15th century mathematics professor developed the basis of "Double-entry Book-keeping"
and since the early 20th century we insist on changing the rules.

Changing the rules will not improve anything, only to continue to mask the truth.

Dollar Bill*>*#11133011/4/03; 22:39:51

"Today, there are 30 pension-eligible elders in the developed world for every 100 working age adults. By the year 2040, there will be 70. In Italy, Japan, and Spain, the fastest-aging countries, there will be 100. In other words, there will be as many retirees as workers. This rising old-age dependency ratio will translate into a sharply rising costs for pay-as-you-go retirement programs - and a heavy burden on the budget, on the economy, and on working age adults in any country that does not take serious steps to prepare... public benefits to the elderly will reach an average of 25% of GDP in the developed countries by 2040, double today's level."
"... In Japan, they will reach 27% of GDP; in France, they will reach 29%; and in Italy and Spain, they will exceed 30%. This growth will throw into question the sustainability of today's retirement systems - and indeed, society's very ability to provide a decent standard of living for the old without overburdening the young.... It is unclear whether they can change course without economic and social turmoil. (emphasis mine)
"For most of history, the elderly - here defined as adults aged 60 and over - comprised only a tiny fraction of the population, never more than five percent in any country. Today in the developed countries, they comprise 20 percent. Forty years from now, the share will reach roughly 35 percent. And that's just the average. In Japan and some of the fast-aging countries of continental Europe, where the median age is expected to exceed 50, the share will be approaching 50 percent."

How do you pay for such increases? If the increase were paid for entirely by tax hikes, not one European country would pay less than 50% of its GDP in taxes, and France would be at 62%. By comparison, the US tax share of GDP would rise from 33% to 44% (I assume this includes all level of taxes). Japan's taxes would be 46% of GDP.

It should be clear to everyone that such an outcome would be an utter economic disaster. Taxes for the working population would be consuming 80-90-% of their income. It would be an economic death spiral. Whatever economic growth might be possible in an aging US, Europe or Japan will be completely squelched by such high taxes. The "giant whooshing sound" would be that of young workers leaving for more favorable working and tax conditions.

If the increase in benefit costs were paid for entirely in cuts to other spending projects, Japan would see its public benefits rise to 66% of total public spending, France and the US to 53% and Germany to 49%. Today, these expenditures are all around 31%. What do you cut? In the US, you might cut defense spending, but there is little to cut in Europe and Japan. Education? Welfare? Parks? Transportation? Medicare or health programs for the working? It gets so very ugly. Since such an outcome (50% of GDP for pensions) is impossible, long before that type of debacle is reached, other solutions, painful as they are, will have to be chosen.

DummyANIMitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:#11133111/5/03; 01:00:36

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Oct. 01 38,117c plus2535c...386.1
Oct. 02 37,353. minus0764c...385.0
Oct. 03 38,758c plus1405c...383.7 <---normal-short
Oct. 06 53,796c plus15038c...370.0
Oct. 07 58,706c plus4910c...373.3
Oct. 08 64,629c plus5923c...377.8
Oct. 09 62,648. minus1981c...376.0
Oct. 10 60,357. minus2291c...369.8
Oct. 13 .. nilc ..cnilc cc....374.1
Oct. 14 61,787c plus1430c...375.7
Oct. 15 61,331. minus0456c...376.2
Oct. 16 61,009. minus0322c...373.1
Oct. 17 60,407. minus0602c...373.2
Oct. 20 62,631c plus2224c...372.2
Oct. 21 67,474c plus4843c...374.4
Oct. 22 58,163. minus9311c...382.0 <---wrong-short
Oct. 23 49,538. minus8625c...386.8 <---wrong-short
Oct. 24 46,545. minus2993c...385.0
Oct. 27 50,838c plus4293c...389.2
Oct. 28 49,296. minus1542c...388.2
Oct. 29 51,053c plus1757c...383.4
Oct. 30 53,108c plus2055c...387.0
Oct. 31 51,174. minus1934c...384.4
Nov. 04 50,855. minus0319c...377.1
Nov. 05 49,206. minus1649c...380.0 <---wrong-short

D-ANI: COMEX gold is accumulating a break-out energy through $400 level. Commercial-sellers desperately try to sell-off Dec.-gold. If their strategy is reasonable, no rebounds are happening. Desperately miserable short-positions of commercials will be accumulated until a LAST-Day.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Golden EraMUSLIMS WARNED TO LEAVE DC, NY AND LA#11133211/5/03; 01:59:22

Wonder whether this is the reason for the POG firm recovery above $380.
TopazDollar etc....@ silvercollector#11133311/5/03; 04:22:37

Cash$ is looking good from here given the refusal of Bonds to sell off, DX100 anyone?

Hi silver,
Just retraced and noticed your intention to retire, you'll be sorely missed... and happy "collecting" - remember...

...It isn't about Gold ........"YET"

CaradocSilver Eagles#11133411/5/03; 04:42:58

Silvester/ industrial Gold:

I can't document the source, but I read somewhere that the US government had been consuming its silver stockpile during previous years' production of silver eagles and was having to buy silver on the open market for at least the last part of this year's production. If you twist your thinking into a mindset where the cost of the minting process was all you've had to pay in previous years for the privilege of swapping an anachronistic metal for valuable pieces of green confetti, then maybe it makes sense to stop the minting after you get to the point where you would first have to tie up some of your cherished green confetti to be able to mint the coins.

misetichEU Trade Negotiator Unyielding On Subsidies#11133511/5/03; 05:16:14


The uncompromising language of EU Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy raised the prospects of a politically and economically painful trade war during a U.S. presidential campaign. And it seemed to have left the Republican-controlled Congress and White House with an unsavory choice: take action now that could harm the vulnerable steel industry and other manufacturers or risk sanctions that could be even more uncomfortable closer to the 2004 election.

"If the U.S. does not move, retaliation is a racing certainty," Lamy said yesterday in a speech before the European Institute, a research group devoted to transatlantic issues.

At issue are two separate trade disputes, steel and export subsidies.
We're looking at an unnecessary escalation" in the trade dispute, Levin said after meeting with Lamy. "It would be a serious mistake to let European pressure shape American law."
"The retaliatory threat is real, and the cost would be severe," said Calman J. Cohen, president of the Emergency Committee for American Trade, a group backed by large exporters such as Caterpillar Inc., John Deere & Co. and Cargill Inc.

This has been ongoing saga for some time. The inherent message is EU is competing with US at all levels.

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetichOctober's "Hangover" for Detroit - After laying on the incentives to clear out '03 models in August and September, the Big Three couldn't move enough metal afterward #11133611/5/03; 06:30:23


The net result could also mean fatter inventories. Less-then-stellar October sales left Detroit with roughly 3 million unsold vehicles in inventory -- 7% above October, 2002, and 7.2% above September, 2003, levels, according to Ward's Automotive Reports. Lapidus expects the Big Three to end the year with an average of 82-days supply of vehicles -- 26% higher than normal. That's based on the auto makers' current fourth-quarter production plans and expectations that sales will return to September's levels for the rest of the year.

Growth has been reported recently in the manufacturing industry - the higher levels of atuo inventory indicates manufacturing is in for a tough slug ahead

The much expected economic recovery may be not as the SM have priced in -

GOLD investments demand usually goes higher as SM heads unexpectadly downward

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

cockerel1Insider buying down.#11133711/5/03; 06:56:04

Insider buying of company stock slows in October
Tuesday November 4, 5:30 pm ET
By Chelsea Emery

NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Corporate big wigs bought just $52 million worth of their own companies' stock in October, a third of the average, in a sign they may be wary about the economic and stock-market recovery, Wall Street traders said on Tuesday.

Insiders usually buy about $173 million of stock monthly, according to data compiled by market research group Thomson Financial. But October was the fifth-straight month executives' purchases have fallen below the $100 million mark, Thomson said.

Insiders are holding back at the same time the stock market and economy have surged ahead. Blue-chip stocks closed at a 17-month high on Monday and gross domestic product, a measure of economic growth, rose at an annual 7.2 percent rate in the third quarter -- the fastest pace in almost two decades.

"The smart money bought early and it isn't chasing (investments) now," said David Briggs, head of global equity trading at investment firm Federated Investors. "The rate of change is slowing and it's going to be more stubborn from here."

The stock market's sharp rise and fears that the economy may not be as strong as currently believed is holding insiders back, traders said.

"Insiders tend to be the smartest slice of the pie and they're telling you there's no free lunch," said Mike Clark, Credit Suisse First Boston's global head of proprietary trading. "People are extrapolating the growth we've seen over the past year and worrying that it's front ended. We're in a prove-it stage."

An insider selling-to-buying ratio climbed to $59 worth of stock sold in October for every $1 bought -- the highest level in at least a decade, said Thomson. A ratio about $20 indicates bearish sentiment.

"The selling (of company stocks) is about normal -- right in line with five-year averages," said Lon Gerber, director of insider research for Thomson. "But executives are not buying shares. Maybe it's a valuation concern."

In addition, he said, the outlook for the future remains cloudy. "When they have more confidence that this economic recovery will translate to their financials, maybe then they'll step in."

Company insider buying is a good indicator of the direction of the stock market's future, Thomson said.

The ratio of selling to buying has climbed above $20 on only 14 occasions. Six months later, the Standard & Poor's index (CBOE:^SPX - News) has fallen 10 of the 14 times, according to Thomson's Gerber.

"It's a great leading indicator," he said.

Comment: Insider buying and selling is the best indicator of how the market should go.

Buying-Low, Selling-High,

Guess insiders have given a new twist to the "investor motto".

Liberty Head From Ron Paul: Economic Woes Begin At Home#11133811/5/03; 08:26:33

China exports many products into the United States, which makes her a convenient scapegoat for our economic problems. Demanding that China adjust its currency valuation is merely a distraction from addressing the real economic dilemmas facing our country, however. Congress should be focused on our own disastrous monetary policies. As long as the Fed can print money at will and set interest rates, the value of our dollars will be subject to the whims of politicians and the perceived economic needs of politically powerful special interests.
I don't see a significant difference between Democrats and Republicans, however we do have two clearly distinct political philosphies in Washington D.C., Ron Paul and everyone else.

Best Wishes

cockerel1otish mountain (11/4/03; 21:53:23MT - msg#: 111329)#11133911/5/03; 08:52:41

Can someone please explain how intoducing new rules, can improve what is supposed to be a function of mathematics?
a nation of oneI thought you knew this.#11134011/5/03; 09:33:53

The role that mathematics plays in business accounting is
kind of like the role that the alphabet plays in eating
out. There is at times a difference between what you read
on the menu and what is delivered to your table. When too
much of this goes on, you tend to stay home. But printing
is primarily a means by which the cook is relieved from
having to shout from the kitchen what's cooking, and what
it costs, though in some restaurants they do both, just to
make sure people know. Mathematics takes the same function
in business accounting, that the alphabet takes in dining
out, to at least ostensibly present to others what the
main actors of a particular business are doing, or think
they are doing, or claim they are doing, which are not
always the same thing. The alphabet is just as subject to
misrepresentation as men are capable of making it, and
this is also true of mathematics. For instance, they say
that one plus one equals two. But this is not precisely
comprehensible if you add one drop of water to another
drop of water. What you might get is one drop of water.
Thus, one plus one can equal one, in a slightly tortured,
but very real, sense. Also, if you subtract yourself from
in front of a mirror, two becomes zero. So two minus one
can equal zero. This is not my fault. Further, if you
subtract one cloud from one cloud, you can end up with two
clouds. Therefore one minus one can equal two. Usually
this is called division, but that is a function of
linguistics, not math. Of course mathematics is a branch
of semantics, but just trying telling that to a math
teacher. Better stick with gold. One Krugerrand plus one
krugerrand equals two krugerrands. That can be relied on.
But now, if you only write down that you have one of them,
that isn't mathematics. That's accounting.

omegamanLiberty Head post#11134111/5/03; 10:25:50

I love this line!

"I don't see a significant difference between Democrats and Republicans, however we do have two clearly distinct political philosphies in Washington D.C., Ron Paul and everyone else." And how true, but sad.

Good one Liberty Head.


Federal_ReservesBlunder of the Century#11134211/5/03; 10:29:51

Back in 2000, policy makers decided to prick the bubble and bring the economy into a soft landing mode. No
question the economy was overheating and at dangerous levels. Policy makers attempted to bring the
rate of growth back down to 3-4%. They inverted the yield curve and the slowdown came.

By mid 2001, we fell into recession, and on the cusp of that, came a terrorist attack like no other.

The immediate reaction was to start propping up the economy with tax cuts, lower interest rates, and massive
government spending programs, most of which was directly aimed at fighting terrorism on foreign lands. They reversed the inversion in the yield curve dropping short term rates from 6.5% to 1%. These efforts led to a bottom in the stock market by the fall of 2002. That bottom was tested this spring.

Ignored in all of this was the value of the USD. It was never addressed, and belated so. Most fought any effort
to bring it down during the recession.

The blunder of the policy makers?

They should have let the dollar drop hard and fast before applying any stimulus to the US economy. As it stands
now the dollar is 30-40% overvalued, and the economic stimulus is being exported to foreign countries.

This was not only a blunder, it was mass stupidity.

cockerel1a nation of one (11/5/03; 09:33:53MT - msg#: 111340)#11134311/5/03; 10:49:25

In other words sir, " A slight of hand" or "The proverbial shell game", designed by accountants as a means of winning the "pecker contest" over the external auditors.

All of which would become totally irrelevant if companies were not required to pre-pay the taxes, that ultimately come from the end user.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.An Invitation to Prospective Clients....#11134411/5/03; 11:24:41">News and Views
Socrates964Spot thoughts#11134511/5/03; 11:31:23

1. Spot is extremely frisky in the face of a leaden Euro. Low volumes on gold stocks suggests that market isn't convinced of the strength of the rally in gold. We still need a decisive move in the currencies off support (e.g. Euro through 1.1575) in order to cement this POG rally into place. It will come, but gold may have some more thrashing around 380 to do.

2. NEM's decision to dust off its shelf reg is highly significant. We all know that due to the industry-wide lack of R&D spending, the only way for the big miners to grow earnings is through M&A (Think about this - it means that Wall Street's paper financed flying takeover circus can be brought out of storage).

The miners that know how to play this game (and no-one plays it better than NEM) have no doubt worked out that they have a few years of virtuous circling ahead, i.e. a) buy something with cash, b) consolidate earnings, c) let the rising gold price expand your multiple, d) buy something else, only this time do it with shares, e) repeat until 6 months before the gold price peaks. Note that while the gold price is rising, money will be thrown at this market with abandon because it will be one of the few sectors with stocks that can expand both margins and sales volumes. Indeed, one of my predictions is that most investors will not buy gold stocks because they produce gold, but because they are generating enormous earnings growth in dollars (Sad, isn't it, but never look a gift horse in the mouth).

NEM is signalling to the market that the scramble for takeover candidates is about to begin.

a nation of oneto cockerel1 (11/5/03; 10:49:25MT - msg#: 111343)#11134611/5/03; 11:41:13

You say: "All of which would become totally irrelevant if
companies were not required to pre-pay the taxes, that
ultimately come from the end user."

Taxation does provide some with an incentive to
misrepresent. But for those to whom misreprenting is
an acceptable way to do business, it is not the only

cockerel1a nation of one (11/5/03; 11:41:13MT - msg#: 111346)#11134711/5/03; 12:22:10

Sir I agree. But the taxation manipulation is by far the easiest and largest slice of the pie.
a nation of one,,,#11134811/5/03; 13:01:11

I don't have enough data to form a conclusion. But you
may be right.

J-BullionThe most bullish forecast!#11134911/5/03; 13:50:12


Inflation and Deflation during Hyperinflation:


.........So then, if M3 shrinks in value to be equal to the gold held by the U.S. government, and if it takes ten years for this to happen, and if the number of dollars triples in those ten years as M3 tripled as happened in the 1970's, here's what the gold price would be: M3 $8,800 billion in 2003 times three to $26,400 billion M3 in 2013 / 0.261 billion oz. gold = $ 101,149/oz. Yes, gold, in a decade from now, could be worth over a hundred thousand dollars per ounce all due mostly to prior inflation of the money supply finally showing up, and the deflation in value of the money supply back to real levels............


Of course if this occurs, a loaf of bread will probably cost $50 dollars, but it's at least fun to think of the numbers........until you understand the utter devastation it's going to cause society.

21mabryChina#11135011/5/03; 16:07:15

I attended a lecture last night by an economics proffessor at the university last night.This prof. is chinese and from mainland china.He talked about trade about dollar to rmb ration.It looked to me like the only thing china buys from the U.S. is high tech and big ticket items such as planes and such.What I came away with was even if china revalued their currency downward they would still produce goods much cheaper than us,maybe better for us if they devalued so we could get more yuan for what we do sell them.The proffessor also spoke about rising living standard the huge increase in raw material imports by china.The chinese are producing huge amounts of steel but they still need to import it same with cement.The chinese seem to be practicing mercantalism on a huge scale and giving the west a taste of revenge for earlier affronts to their nation.A remark he also made was,china sends the U.S. valuable finished goods and gets paper in return.21
Cavan ManMORE BANG FOR YOUR EURO#11135111/5/03; 16:09:52

EU Business - 35 minutes ago
Italy announced Wednesday it is granting 720 million euros (823 million dollars) to Russia to help it destroy its huge chemical weapons arsenal and safely dispose of its Soviet-era nuclear submarines.

Goldbug 1Yawn Yawn.........#11135211/5/03; 16:42:04

On the P&F chart no moon shot yet, in fact it looks more like a freight train shunting in a country railyard at the moment, however that Gold Express will be coming through soon but will it be heading north or south. My betting is for a major move north before Christmas. Shalom.
Belgian1976 >>> * The Jamaica Accords *#11135311/5/03; 16:46:06

The IMF convened a monetary summit in Jamaica : The "accords" formally recognized the managed "floating currency system" for the duration.


What does this meant then... and NOW :

Gold was NO longer "backing" the currencies as it did in the old gold exchange system. Gold would remain a "RESERVE ASSET" ! Reconfirmed by Duisenberg at the birth of the euro. Gold a non-currency (demonetized) and a "REAL WEALTH" *RESERVE ASSET" .

The following goldrush (1980-850$) was the wholesale scramble by huge dollar holders, trying to buy some of those "Reserve Assets" (in 400 ounce bars) before it's price went sky high. The real reason for the managed rise was to demonstrate to oil producers and other dollar holders that NOT EVERYONE could convert,... if they bought all at once !

I do remember that goldrush very well. But never understood what happened after POG's 1980 ATH. Banks in Euroland advised not to buy physical Gold anymore, when POG started to decline, and started guiding those exited goldbugs into paper-gold ! There even was a period where 1% VAT was imposed on Physical as to enforce you towards the paper-substitute, that didn't carry that VAT frightener.
When later on, the goldfever went down, VAT was abolished and banks did not advised the paper-gold-stuff anymore.

Now I do understand what happened and why it happened. You can read (reread) the full explanation in Archive I of FOA walks the Gold Trail. The engineering of the gold market !

In the early 90s, some major players began to stop trading paper-gold and started slowly buying Physical. They remembered the real meaning of those Jamaica Accords.

1991 : The Maastricht Treaty - EMU. The euro was born.

The two major power blocks ($-€) no longer shared the purpose of maintaining a paper gold's price damping effects were no longer needed !

1999 : WAG told the world that the euro was backing out of the paper gold game. The dollar could now go as high or as low as world traders would like to take this now * ON IT'S OWN * dollar-currency !!!

The Jamaica Accords are to be understood as a clear signal that there is a permanent shift from holding Gold (Wealth Reserve Asset) and fiat-currencies in "competition" with each other. Let this very fundamental meaning, sink deeply in, dear forumers. The good effects of this "shift" will materialize at the appropiate time.

Bullion, representing the value of the world's assets and productive wealth as FREEGOLD trading as a Reserve Asset.

At present the euro-float is growing. The oil for euro must make this euro-float big and robust enough as to be able to receive/absorb a massive dumping of un-needed dollars .
It is this process that we are watching at present. All those un-needed dollars (still growing) simply wait up until they are replaced/compensated with the GOLD WEALTH RESERVE ASSET, that has been accumulated (redistributed to) by all those who have those un-needed dollars and shift to the application of the Jamaica Accords, at last.

Arabian oil and Euroland were the first ones with rising amounts of un-needed dollars in their reserves.
China (+ satelites) and now Russia, came somewhat later to join the dollar collection. The above is surely explaining why these latecomers (China/Russia) are given some time to accumulate Gold, the wealth reserve asset !!!

Correct me, where I have it wrong, please.

steadyECOism#11135411/5/03; 16:51:41

what is ecoism.

like any other ism it is an theory or a practice.

what is the theory behind ecoism.

ecoism is the effects of the causes that are making gold go up.

these effects percolate all the way thru the social fabric here on planet earth.

from nationa banks down to the person who has no money(gold)

every individual will practice some form of ecoism for ecoism is about individual responsibility for there wealth.

some may think that that is allready occuring but it isnt. most people leave the drivng to others , just merrily going along for the ride untill they are abrubtly kicked out of the car with nothing.

the movement ecoism just an idea that one individual thought of (idea ) and who is seeking either validation or repuditation of that idea.
cause it sure seems to me that something is up on this planet regarding monetary policy regarding the medium of exchange we call money and the effect of that money/currency upon ones person/family/business/ national wealth.
Ecoism is a growing awareness by the masses world wide that yes somethig is afoot. especially since most large media centers in North America simply ignore the unfolding mini series happening in the gold/currency/oil war.
This awareness is rekindeling many long forgotten desires to accumulate something tangible , for ones time/efforts/productive endevors. which happens to be gold since it has been serving humanity for 5,000 years

Ecoism is simple yet complex. It resembles the gold market, where on the surface it seems simple one price for gold but then there are all the subtle and not so subtle influences on the ppog(physical price of gold) which make it dynamic and fluid.
Same with ecoism it seems so simpple , an idea where individuals world wide are becoming interested in a passive assett/commodity that retanis its value ie storing wealth that can retains its prchasing power.
But it to has its complexities as each individual interprets the world according to there acculturation and therfore acts a lil different than the other fellow in regards to there commitment to ecoism.
yet similarily they realize something is affot and are acting acordingly.
this action leads then to a greater understanding of how the finances of the world work. making them more informed and able to accuratly seperate the wheat from the chaff. Although at first it seems that ecoites where shunned for there attempt to inform the planet of the percieved change taking place . Lately, it seems many more are starting to echo the ecoites remarks pole to pole. This in turn is helping to refine the idea and spread it out further for inspection both introspeculativly and extraspeculativly. For it is only thru refing new ides that we continual to evolve and seek out and find the truth of the universe.
Ecoism is about being practicle, reliable, honest and haveing something called integrity.
those are the planks of the golden foundation of ecoism. those traits that we look for in others must come from ourself. ecoism alive and evolving yet.
gold and silver
honest money for
honest people.

BelgianThe dollar on the defensive....#11135511/5/03; 17:01:54

That is my interpretation of all present actions going on about the oil-matters. Middle East, Russia, Venezuela, Africa. The dollar clinging onto oil-power !?

Renewed trouble in Sri Lanka has to do with the US wanting a military (naval) base on the island (Indian Ocean).

Yukos/Sibneft are threathened with the Siberian Licenses (anti-looting) weapon. Putin also visiting the pope (invitation to come to ussia), whilst the EU constitution has a row about the notules on humanism/christian/jewish religion.

In the absence of BB...interesting times, indeed !

glennh10Reports of "No 2004 Silver Eagles"#11135611/5/03; 19:53:59

Regarding the two separate cases (Silvester/111317, IndustrialGold/111322) reporting the Mint's ceasing production of silver eagles at the end of 2003, has anyone been able to verify or find any further information about this? I was unable to find anything with an internet search. I also sent off an email to Coin World, for them to look into it. I can add some background, and a theory.

Sometime during 2002, the last delivery of silver available from the U.S. Strategic Silver Stockpile was delivered to the Mint. At that time, Coin World reported on it, but they had to go through the Freedom of Information Act to get quantity specifics. (Unfortunately, I misplaced the articles, so this is coming from memory). The Mint refused to estimate how long the supply would last, only stating that they had enough to finish the 2002 production run, as well as meet at least some of the expected 2003 coinage demand. Please bear with me here, as I put together some of the pieces to this picture.

It is estimated that the Strategic Stockpile was about 2 billion ounces in 1980. That was silver that the U.S. had primarily acquired at $1.29 per ounce, or less. When Congress passed the bullion program into law, it was stipulated that the program had to operate at a profit. Beginning in 1986, the Mint started the bullion silver eagle program, presumably feeding off of this existing supply of silver bullion (which would make sense, rather than buying it at a higher market price). Then, they would turn around and sell it at a spot + price to re-sellers. (Quite a profit!).

Here's my theory. Perhaps now, the Mint's silver "gravy train" has finally run out, and they have to play "hard ball", competing in the real silver market (the real world). Perhaps they figure that the profit margin on the bullion coin production will now be too small or unpredictable, that the silver market is too volatile to guarantee long-term production at a profit, as stipulated by the law. So, maybe they decided to get out of the silver bullion business altogether, focusing instead on the numismatic market for mint silver products, which allows a higher mark-up, thus ensuring profitability.

Just a theory.

Anybody know more about this?


DruidProfile: Yukos' new chief#11135711/5/03; 20:31:59


Simon Kukes, the man chosen to take over the helm of Russian oil giant Yukos from jailed Russian tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, is no stranger to the energy business.
The 56-year-old new chief executive's career as an oilman spans 25 years, most recently as head of fellow Russian oil major TNK since 1998.

His credentials there include the recent $7.7bn joint venture signed with Britain's BP.

That could mean that talks with ExxonMobil to take a stake in Yukos, in jeopardy after prosecutors froze 44% of Yukos' shares last week, could be back on the cards.

American abroad

Mr Kukes is Russian-born but emigrated to the US in 1977, heading for Texas - the epicentre of the US oil trade - and taking out citizenship thereafter.

The 1980s saw him at Phillips Petroleum and then at Amoco, now part of BP, where he ran the company's business development in the former Soviet Union in the early 1990s.

By 1996 he was back in Russia for his first spell at Yukos. He returned to the company earlier this year.

Druid: This has more twists and turns then your average snake.

DruidEU slaps $200m tariff on US imports#11135811/5/03; 20:42:22


The EU has said US imports are to face duties of $200m (£120m) from March 2004.
The European Commission decided to impose the duties in retaliation against US tax breaks for exporters, which have been criticised by the World Trade Organisation.

Initially, the tariffs will be applied at a rate of 5% on up to $4bn of goods.

Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy said: "The Commission hopes to pass a very clear message to the United States that their continued failure to implement three years after the expiry of the original WTO deadline is unacceptable."

The World Trade Organisation (WTO) gave the EU the right to impose 100% tariffs on more than $4bn of US exports after ruling that the US tax breaks were illegal.

Druid: It looks like "globalization" might have to take a back seat to the return of the Nation State Model or some other similar model.

DruidBattle for Russian Gold Draws Western Miners#11135911/5/03; 21:30:27


Political risk abounds and business is plagued by murder and organized crime -- but it takes more than that to put off foreign pioneers lured by Russian gold.

Driven by booming prices, Western players are overcoming their caution and starting to tiptoe through tricky local legislation to tap one of the world's biggest unexploited gold fields.

The fragmented gold industry could be at a turning point and is seen as ripe for consolidation.

"Russian gold is not quite like drugs, not like prostitution anymore," said Pavel Maslovsky, joint head of Peter Hambro Mining, a London-based firm operating in the Far East.

"It's not like a dog sled race through Alaska during the Gold Rush. It's not about thrill-seekers who used to operate in Russia in the 1990s, but about some serious Western players."

Gold firms looking to branch out of traditional but crowded markets like South Africa say now is the time to try their luck in riskier territories such as Russia.

Druid: While the rest of the world appears to be gearing up for a gold rush, we here at the good ole U.S. of A. are waiting for AMAZON to report its first real net operating profit. Being a bug here at home is similar to being a stranger in a foreign land.

DruidGold Is Money - Deal with It!#11136011/5/03; 22:11:32

[Remarks by Robert K. Landis to the Association of Mining Analysts, London, England, October 2, 2003]


Gold bugs don't get out much. And it's very rare that we get an opportunity to address mainstream opinion makers. So it's a great honor indeed to speak to an organization that counts among its members some of the world's most influential mining analysts. I'm grateful to the Association, and to Chairman Michael Coulson, for inviting me here to talk today.

As the title of my remarks suggests, I'm not here to discuss the dissident theory of undisclosed official intervention in the gold market. Or to introduce or expand upon some new piece of evidence in support of that theory. Rather, I'd like to focus on the mainstream view of gold itself. I have two reasons for doing so. First, because I think as long as you hold that view, there's no way you can even hear the dissident message.

Second, and more important, I think it's time for influential people to begin thinking about what comes next. The dissident message, after all, is just one facet of a much bigger issue: the current monetary system is rotten to the core. So the question arises, where do we turn when the dikes break? The gold bugs’ answer is simple: we'll have no choice; it'll be back to gold. But as long as the mainstream view is in place, it will continue to mask the true nature of the problem and prevent us from thinking constructively about a solution.

By the way, for an example of the type of thinking that's needed here, I refer you to Reg Howe's comprehensive analysis of the Canadian situation, posted yesterday. See Saving Canada with Gold Grams (or for those who prefer to read in French, Québec Libre: Gramme par Gramme). Once you read it, you'll see why he was unable to be with us today.

The Clash of the Paradigms

Two paradigms are at war in the gold world. The dominant set of received beliefs, those that shape the way most of us look at gold, is the "gold as commodity" paradigm. This view, with few exceptions, is held by all the major players - official sources, the media, analysts, the miners, and even a lot of gold bugs who ought to know better.

The commodity paradigm has three basic elements:

1. Gold was "demonetized" in the 1970's.

2. Gold, like other commodities, is a hedge against inflation.

Here I bow to superior numbers and use the term "inflation" in its popular, and incorrect, sense: a rising price level. This is the sense in which the term is understood under the commodity paradigm, and also the sense in which it is used in the leading empirical study of gold, which I'll come to later. I hope the Austrians among you will forgive me; I can tackle only so many paradigms at one time.

3. There is no monetary demand for gold. The demand for gold is principally ornamental. Above-ground supply is abundant, and the bulk of it is held by central banks, who are indifferent and accidental owners. The market is always at risk of disruption from a mobilization of that supply.

Druid: Enjoy.

GonlyoldWho Owns the Gold?#11136211/6/03; 00:30:19

Under the law of contracts, there must be a consideration paid in exchange for the item or service sought. (There are other elements but I won't go into them for now.) Without the payment of consideration, there is no contract. And the consideration must be something of value. As far as I understand it, a person cannot "pay" (offer consideration) for something of value with something that does not have value. That would not be an enforceable contract. The contract would be null and void and the item bargined for would be returned to the original owner.

Now, if we believe that FRN's lack value and that gold has value, then it seems to me that people who are supposedly contracting to buy gold using evidences of debt, e.g., Fereral Reserve Notes, haven't actually entered into an enforceable contract. To me this means that they don't actually own the gold. To me this means that ownership goes back to the original owner/holder who has/had last title to the gold. This last owner/holder scenario continues all the way back to the person who last offered something of value for it: i.e., prior to fiat dollars. Was that the miner? Perhaps the person who had title the ground the gold came out of? Hm-m-m-m-m. Interesting thought.

I think that the net result is called confiscation.

Henry Ford of Ford Motor Company fame said (I think that this is the actual quote), "If the American People understood how the banking system worked, there would be an uprising by morning."

Now add to this the recent post by Druid who quoted Robert K. Landis as saying, "The dissident message, after all, is just one facet of a much bigger issue: the current monetary system is rotten to the core." Hm-m-m-m, I think I know what he's talking about.

Now, let me offer perhaps a more reassuring thought. In law there is a maxim that says that possession is 9/10's of the law. I'm sure that a person could use this to support his title to "his" gold. However, I hope he has more verbage than that to defend himself.

I would still buy gold. But I would also be aware of my position and be prepared to legally and lawfully defend my purchase. Any people here have any other suggestions on how to do this?

Is my original premise valid? Feel free to offer your rocks or roses. No problem.

AristotleGonlyold --- hits and (mostly) misses#11136311/6/03; 01:09:55

You haven't taken your thinking far enough. As with every proposal for a new universe, there has to be internal consistency in the logic or rules that govern that universe.

You suggested that Gold ownership might not be valid because it was not consumated by "payment of consideration... something of value" (if paid for with Federal Reserve Notes.)

You go on from there to suggest that the purchase contrat could be considered invalid, and ownership would revert to... perhaps the miners who "had title to the ground the Gold came out of."

Was not that same title to ground paid for by Federal Reserve Notes? (all Gold from claims to mining rights on public land aside.)

You know, I continue to worry about guys like steady (says, "Gold is honest MONEY for honest peope") and and Druid (says, "Gold is MONEY - deal with it!")

They're clearly not taking their thoughts far enough to yield a viable universe with internally consitent rules/logic.

It might be a good time to revisit my old remarks to steady on this old issue. To the effect:

Gold is money? What is it about Gold that makes it MONEY?

Before the first human ever bought a fish from his buddy who caught two, even before the time that T-Rex nabbed an easy meal of some sorry four-legged critter who was temporarily mesmerized by the yellow pebbles glittering in the stream, what feature arose out of the primordial ooze that invested yellow atoms with the mandate of "moneyness" as you'd have it?

Or OR **OR** is it possible that Gold is Gold, whereas money is an invention of mankind that came along somewhat very much later in the grand scheme?

You know.... there didn't used to be derivatives, either. Soooooo.... with that firmly *FIRMLY* in mind, what gentle and patient help should we offer some poor soul who goes about saying "Gold is derivatives."????



Can anyone back me up with a major "Sheeeeeeeeeeeesh" here?

Truth be told, I certainly can't stop my neighbor from using his saw to drive nails, but I can surely step in and show him how nicely a hammer works to provide a superior result. That way, if I (or the other neighbor) ever need to cut wood, there's a good chance I'll be able to borrow a suitable tool from him that hasn't been already DESTROYED in his other ill-informed practices.

Again, this may sound stern, but I'm just tryin' to be a good neighbor here.

Gold. It is what it is. Get you some, and know the size and shape of your savings/wealth. --- Ari

PS. If I could have a SECOND wish come true for Christmas this year, it would be that everyone *EVERYONE* would understand *UNDERSTAND* the truth and internally consistent logic of Sir Belgian's excellent message 111353 yesterday. Some day.... I'm gonna buy that guy a beer.

Aristotle"a maxim that says that possession is 9/10's of the law"#11136411/6/03; 01:32:35

Gonlyold, regarding your post, to put it all briefly, if we could only wrap our mind around ONE thing...

THAT would be the thing.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

BelgianThe dollar....#11136511/6/03; 01:47:45

Q. : WHEN will Gold rush to its REVALUATION ?
A. : When dollar-price-inflation is "de-contained" !

Dollar-inflation (inflare) since 1933 up until today, did NOT produce proportionate price-inflation.
From 1933 to 1973, Americans had to sacrifice their personal Gold as to defend the expanding (inflating) dollar, outside the US. And from 1971 onwards, the dollar-system went into another dynamic dimension.

Those past 3 decades, *concerted* efforts, focussed on the containment of dollar-price-inflation.
Where are we standing NOW and is the present situation indicating that we are getting very close to the liberation of that contained price-inflation monster ?

Yes, today, the dollar-price-inflation monster, is completely immobilized because it is on the verge of breaking out.

1/ 20 years of rising stock markets as to absorb the ongoing, permanent, dollar inflation. Still going strong today. And the general acceptance of "absurd" valuations is evidence that the rising (strong) stock market is serving the purpose of absorbing dollars !

2/ More CBs around the globe are absorbing more (un-needed) dollars. The US as export destination of last resort. The excesses (un-needed dollar-reserves) of the returned dollar-paper for the export of goods/services goes to rest in non American CBs.

3/ Near zero (very low) Interest Rates are Irrationally, Exhuberantly LOW and a gigantic artificial sign that one should not expect (fear) any price-inflation. Another (hum) super chain on the price-inflation monster.

4/ A political arranged and amuzing POO price target zone (22$-28$) as to safe the dollar's face somewhat. Note how very disciplined this works, despite rising tensions !
The POO is NOT indicating, nor provoking, dollar-price-inflation !

5/ Dollar-euro exchange rate ! How nice and sweet are these two sisters "behaving" !!! So harmonious and undisturbing...un-alarming ! The global economic situation does NOT allow us to rock any boat that would/should/could make any wave as to "induce" run-away dollar-price-inflation !!!

6/ All remains well in dollar-paper-gold land. A. Smith remains on post...India is going to paperize its gold also...and ETF as another paperizer.

Whilst economic, political reasons keep on containing the inevitable outbreak of general dollar-price-inflation...the euro keeps on * maturing * AND oil grows ever more * independant * (nuclear Iran) !!!

specie-manGold possession/confiscation#11136611/6/03; 01:51:16

Possession is 9/10ths of the law.
As such, if the government ever attempted wide-scale confiscation of the gold that is "out there" in the USA, only about 10% would actually be recovered.

That is my estimate, anyway.

In such a confiscation scenario, however, I wonder what would be the legal status of the legal-tender US Gold Eagle bullion coins ?

specie-manArrest of Russian oil boss & Italian aid.#11136711/6/03; 02:05:00

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the arrested head of the Yukos oil company seemed sympathetic to western (US) interests. He supported plans for a merger with a US oil company, and supported the pricing of oil in dollars. Putin sacked him, possibly because Putin is not as sympathetic to the US. Putin also recently stated Russia's interest in pricing oil in Euros rather than dollars. With Khodorkovsky out of the way, it is more likely that at least some of Russia's oil will be priced in Euros.

If it is true that Italy is providing aide to Russia for disposing of cold war leftovers, then that could be signalling a major economic development. That sort of aide would have traditionally come for the US. But with it coming from a Euro member, it shows Russia's intentions to bond more closely with Europe and less so with the US.

specie-man2004 Silver Eagles#11136811/6/03; 02:12:51

I follow the coin industry very closely. I have not heard any hints whatsoever about the suspension of the Silver Eagle coin program. I believe that it will contine and many 2004 coins will be issued.

However, I did hear a rumor from a former mining engineer. That unsubstantiated rumor is that the US government (Mint, EPA, etc.) worked out a deal with a Couer D'Alene Idaho silver mine. The "deal" was that the mine wouldn't have to clean up it's site to current EPA standards, in exchange for supplying the Mint with lower-cost silver.

I have no idea if any of that is true or not.

BelgianYessssssssss Ari.....#11136911/6/03; 02:30:00

Day after day...after day, I have that strong feeling of coming closer and closer to the SIMPLE understanding of Gold. But day after day, my impression grows, that many (if not all) "astute" and very "advanced" Gold-observers, increasingly take every turn and twist as to get further...and further away from the SIMPLE understanding of Gold.

On my ticker tape here, I see Dow futures plunging (70)...UK household debts at absurd levels and UK-IRs rising...and whoopse the firebrigades pop up...

For the forum newcomers, I've included the link (hope it works) where everything is on a Golden plate. Gold-students, simply have to "think" deep and constantly check how these "foundation" insights connect with the present evolvements. As simple as that.But after day, new, completely entangled theories are popping up.

Ari...its a bit lonely in the deserts...but I love these places and have frequently visited them. Thanks for the symbolic beer and cheers to ye. B.

specie-man2004 Silver Eagles#11137011/6/03; 02:39:42

I should add that the initial legislation authorizing the US Eagle bullion coin program stipulated that the gold & silver had to come from US mines. The silver "strategic" stockpile was considered to be USA-mined, so it was eligible for use in the Silver Eagle program.

I do not know if that US-only supplier stipulation is still in effect.

But I do suspect that there would be some unhappy people in the government if the US Mint went to the Comex/Nymex and purchased the needed silver for delivery. I'm pretty sure that they have deemed that approach to be unacceptable.

spotlightDollar dumping#11137111/6/03; 02:41:57

you wrote:
At present the euro-float is growing. The oil for euro must make this euro-float big and robust enough as to be able to receive/absorb a massive dumping of un-needed dollars .
It is this process that we are watching at present. All those un-needed dollars (still growing) simply wait up until they are replaced/compensated with the GOLD WEALTH RESERVE ASSET, that has been accumulated (redistributed to) by all those who have those un-needed dollars and shift to the application of the Jamaica Accords, at last.
My question:

As we have three trillion worth of dollars floating around overseas, and a balance of payments deficit running at $500 billion per year, what percentage of the public and private holdings of dollars has gone into gold in the last 12 months? It was just recently reported that in the last 12 months the gold buying public bought appproximately 250,000
oz.of gold eagle coins. At $400 per oz. that comes to about 100 million dollars. Change from a Bill Gates type buyers $1 billion note would be $900,000,000. In other words it appears to me that the amount of gold buying by all on this planet is a drop in the bucket compared with their present and future holdings. The total gold reserves in the US is less than $100 billion.

The amount of gold being bought by Central Banks such as Russia and China has to be a very small percentage of the amount of dollars they receive.
Any attempt to exchange their dollars for gold via "massive dumping, would, first of all, massively depreciate the lions share of their holdings in the first hour of "massive dumping". Second, the markets would close. The "masssive dumping would,in my opinion,force world central banks to come up with a new monetary system. Of course a black market in dollar dumping and gold accumulation would be instantly born. The longer it took to put a new system in place the more damage would be done.

The way things are at present does not lend itself to sudden change. Japan is the poster boy example of "self interest comes first." It is, they believe, in their interest to keep the dollar game going. Keep the US afloat and healthy enough to keep on buying Japanese goods.

The end can come with a financial event, too large to handle, or by a small country like Malaysia who cares not about how the chips may fall regarding its taking the world on with a gold standard currency.

TopazReserve assets and such...@ Belgian...Aussies raise rates 7%#11137211/6/03; 02:43:33

Hi Belgian-
Yes, the JA paradigm in hindsight is looking a little wobbly at present, but the logic that a wholesale disposal of Dollars by CB's is imminent could also be applied to Gold. The Dollar IS the reserve currency a-la the Accord (as good as Gold).
While a wholesale Gold sell-off by CB's is a remote possibility, (some have!) I'd posit a Dollar sell-off is an only slightly lesser one.
The Systemic/Dollar mechanism will turn pear-shaped of it's own accord...with or without Jamaica.
On the home front the RBA raised rates today by 25bp as a precursor of things to come...NOT!
Aust-(Dollar bloc) is doing an Ireland with 25yr low unemployment, millionaires at every bus-stop and record attendances at mid-week sporting venues...The Aussie$ rocketed ahead, tempering conserns re inflation...What a world eh!

CaradocPOG implications of the case against Morgan Chase#11137311/6/03; 03:17:59

With yesterday's news that the Louisana trial of Morgan Chase (et alia) for conspiring to repress the price of gold is now going into the discovery phase, it's worth a look at the sort of data that plaintiffs have accumulated even without the legal right to demand documents. For background information including involvement of the Saudi royal family, the CIA, and well known western political and economic figures, check out the links available above.

As the trial makes public this sort of information (plus whatever else gets confirmed/discovered), more and more people will become aware that the current price of gold is artificially low. It shouldn't take more than a dozen wealthy individuals deciding to take advantage of these low prices to release the volleyball from the bottom of the swimming pool.

Regarding the theory that Saudis have made cheap oil available in exchange for under-the-table ounces of yellow metal, keep in mind that the father of King Fahad, the five fat brothers and the lean half-brother Crown Prince Abdullah was known to sleep with the treasury of his new nation in a chest under his bed. Most non-royals in the kingdom share a fatalistic outlook shown by how often you hear these two common sayings:
(1) "Sand will blow through the streets of Riyahd."
(2) "My father rode a camel. I drive a Mercedes. My son will ride a camel."

Against that background, it's understandable that the royals are motivated to accumulate real wealth so that their descendants can continue to live well after they lose power or -- in the best case -- after the oil is gone. If in the meanwhile that means cheap oil in terms of US dollars per barrel, so be it. From the viewpoint of the US government, if providing the under-the-table inducement is made easier by allowing the price of gold to be suppressed, so be it.

The time will come when Saudi royals will be motivated to have their accumulated wealth recognized at its true value per ounce. In theory, that time could be as distant as the economic exhaustion of the Saudi oilfields. But it could come quicker if/when the Saud family loses power. And it could come even quicker if/when either of two things happens:
(1) POG rises to the point that the ounces needed for the agreed upon under-the-table inducement costs the US government more than it lowers the price of oil. Or...
(2) Public outrage demands that the under-the-table inducement program come to an end.

These two eventualities are interrelated in that public awareness of what has been going on (needed for [2] above)will also prompt buying demand for gold, raising POG enough to trigger (1) above. Finally, the likelihood and timing of either or both of these eventualities may well be driven by what the now-active trial in Louisana makes public.

"There ain't no rush like a gold rush."


CaradocWhat gold to buy?#11137411/6/03; 03:59:14

If/when it becomes in the interest of "The Powers That Be" for gold to be priced by market forces (and whether this pricing translates to a three-fold increase or a ten-fold increase), many here are likely to see healthy profits. Exchanges like Comex have been known to limit such profits to "cash settlement only" with the bid on a given Thursday being whatever they decide is a fair profit. Even worse, it's a fact of life that such profits automatically attract the attention of national governments. At best, those governments will be considering whether tax law should be changed to allow greater "revenue" than current taxes would generate. At worst, governments have been known to confiscate the yellow metal.

So... If your gold is paper gold, you may see an arbitrary limit to your actual profit. No matter what your profit turns out to be and even if you profit from holding physical gold, you may get small satisfaction from contributing to your nation's balance sheet by paying a brand new "windfall profits tax." (Some "windfall" if you've been accumulating for a decade or more!!!) Worst case is that gold gets demonized as the curency of terrorists and your stash gets confiscated while you get reimbursed at whatever rate TPTB decide to pay you.

These problems tend to be avoided/minimized if your holdings are numismatic coins arguably valued based upon scarcity as well as gold content. (For one thing, it's too hard for bureaucrats to figure out a simplistic formula for reimbursement!) Maybe a personal preference, but I happen to like MS-63 or better Saint Gaudens. Whatever coins you may choose, our host has them available at what I think are temporarily depressed prices. Just call 1(800)869-5115, extension 110.


steadywhat is gold ?#11137511/6/03; 05:24:16

if gold isnt money aristotle , what is it? besides gold? a store house ? what is it? i have no answers and have thought it thru obvioulsy im on the wrong path/trail care to enlighten me as to what gold is then? how bout gold honest waelth saver?
haha what clues you going to give me for its unlike you to just come out and blurt it out in a split second blunder rather than making individuals use theree cranium.
wating patiently for more golden nuggets aristotle.
gold and silver
honest money for
honest people! <;+)__~~~

Aristotlesteady, what is Gold?#11137611/6/03; 05:55:55

As much as I'd like to riddle the matter further for you, at this point it's all so simple that to take the next step is put an end to it for everyone except those who try very very mindfully to look away and avoid the truth in front of them. Belgian sitting over there... I hear him saying "Amen!" to that.

The only way an honest person can honestly ask "what is Gold?" is if they haven't been introduced to the (political(????)) notion of Private Property.

Let's all think looooooooong and honestly about that, then try this on for size -- a rallying cry to replace your faulty one:

"Gold: honest property for honest people."

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Aristotle"Honest property" reminds me of a variation on an old theme:#11137711/6/03; 06:05:41

"We'd rather have Gold in hand than to have the paper promise (money)."

Spoken as by someone who knows the *TRUE* nature of money -- and its shortcomings!

For your security, choose Gold over money; property over promise.

Every time.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Gandalf the WhiteTHANKS to that "deep thinker", Sir Specie-man !!#11137811/6/03; 08:09:56

specie-man (11/6/03; 01:51:16MT - msg#: 111366)
Gold possession/confiscation
--- snip ---
In such a confiscation scenario, however, I wonder what would be the legal status of the legal-tender US Gold Eagle bullion coins ?
BRAVO Sir Specie-man !!!
One can solve that legal tender confiscation problem very easily, YES ?
That is what I have been preaching since the year the "Gold Eagle" pieces arrived.

BelgianSpotlight/Topaz#11137911/6/03; 08:20:12

The bulk of the dollar-reserves will stay where they are.
The 1971 > 1980 goldrush made it VERY clear, that even 20 years ago, it was IMPOSSIBLE, to rush for Gold, ALL together at the same time !!! Keep it simple mates.
Today, ALLLLLLL those stashed dollars CANNOT....NOTTTTTTT go for Gold. THAT'S WHY CBs STILL HAVE THEIR GOLD and dollar-reserves. Because FREEGOLD-reserves will COMPENSATE for the quasi useless dollars attained by "inflatitis".

It ONLY is the dollar that has been losing its Gold-reserves !!! And it will only be the dollar-CB (FED) that will lose more Gold-reserves if it choses to further defend the dollar when price-inflation is allowed to manifest itself.

Don't complicate the Gold story, that is rather extremely simple. Accumulate the precious Golden Wealth Reserve Asset, while we continue to live in and with the dollar-orgy (bachanal).

Read those FOA Archives I, again and again... line per line and reflect on it line per line...everything, all your answers on one single golden plate.

Sir Greenie, speaking now, got decorated for his nice efforts to "DEFEND" the dollar in an economical viable fashion. AlSpan has been extending the dollar-reserves's lifetime. Duisenberg got no medal, because he put the dollar's challenge (replacement) in place !

Watch those six elements that support-defend the dollar-system. Wait until this dollar-dam starts breaking down...desintegrates ! Be prepared with the ultimate Golden compensation - tool ! It will happen Sirs !

DruidAristotle (11/6/03; 01:09:55MT - msg#: 111363)#11138011/6/03; 08:46:01

Sir Aristotle, I would like to think that I "understand" your logic reference gold. The title in my past post is actually the title of Mr. Landis' recent speech. Gold for whatever reasons has stood the "test of time" to be rated the true wealth of mankind. Gold is still gold it is man's thoughts about gold that change with the seasons. What I "should" have been doing in the past that I'm presently doing is working for confetti and converting that confetti to something tangible like bullion, tools, land, health...etc.. and not the illusions and delusions of paper wealth. Many thanks for your postings as you always make me think.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Thanksgiving and the Fruit of your Labor: Turn seasonal value into timeless value#11138111/6/03; 08:50:37

Swiss gold francs

Harvest Time
Whatever it is that you may have sown,
we'll give you the power to reap GOLD.

USAGOLD-Centennial has three decades of experience in the field

Mr Greshammy .02 #11138211/6/03; 09:16:27

from today's brain-harried scurry ...

Ari -- I was just thinking that "9/10ths" thing yesterday.

Druid -- a philosopher in our midst! -- I gotta re-read your yesterday's with a cup o' coffee on break-time.

Caradoc -- thanks for fleshing out some of the Saudi scenarios that help me extend my A/FOA memory, gotta get back to that, as Belgian says.

Silvercollector -- hope you're not gone. Didn't catch any longer goodbye commentary from you, but it sounded like that.

G: So now, it's been a year since the Bernanke burst (which came at a fine time for me; really needed a morale boost) but we've marked time since then (oh, a war or two for a roundtrip to the 380s == brilliant of our C-in-C eh? not a terrorist attack locally since we sent them some more convenient targets -- hostages?).

I wonder what accommodation was made -- calculation of available reserves? -- that allowed the ascent of about $100 and "no futhah, fer now".??? gotta run...

AristotleWas this remark intended to give the Chinese government reason to pause?#11138311/6/03; 09:39:06

Here's one we can scratch our heads about. With China's eventual final phase of liberalization of the Gold market in mind (that is, allowing its citizens to own Gold) I can't help wondering what fuller effect President Bush was aiming for in his remarks to the National Endowment for Democracy moments ago.

He more or less said, "If men and women are allowed to control their own wealth, they will want to control their own lives, with their own democracy."

On the one hand it sounds like an encouragement, but on the other...
(Does anyone get my point, or do I gotta lay it all out for ya?)

Moving right along...

Druid, thanks for the good words. Wish more people would see the elegance of your/my strategy of steady wealth accumulation.

Gold. Get you some... with the regularity of the lunar cycle. --- Aristotle

Renny"If men and women are allowed to control their own wealth#11138411/6/03; 09:44:35

Sounds to me almost as if he was addressing fellow members of the Trilateral Commission or the Bildeburgers or someone and giving dire warning that if something wasn't done quickly the sheep would be out of their control.
Cavan ManAristotle#11138511/6/03; 09:55:22

We can't have that now can we?
RimhAristotle - Bush's message#11138611/6/03; 10:21:54

Ari, I very much appreciate your insightful comments (I still get a kick out of your "Ari-Instruments" discussion a while back!).

It very well may be a warning to China's leaders, but it would be lost on most people as being a noble plug for "human rights" and democracy. Too bad most in the West do not understand the role of gold as a preserver of wealth like the Chinese undoubtedly do.

As your sage advice goes: Gold....(we all know the rest)

cockerel1Alan Greenspan - This A.M.#11138711/6/03; 10:36:52


"History has shown that, when faced with large challenges, elected officials have risen to the occasion. In particular, looking back over the past twenty years or so, it has been evident that the prospect of large deficits generally has led to actions to narrow them. I trust that the recent deterioration in the budget outlook and the fast-approaching retirement of the baby-boom generation will be met with similar determination and effectiveness."

Comment: Guess when push comes to shove, "trust (read "hope")" is about all that is left.

HenriAri 111383#11138811/6/03; 11:01:43


I'm guessing most americans that have wealth (a minority I'm certain) believe they are in control of it. :-)

If they own gold physical, they definately are (for now).

They also probably believe they are are in control of their own lives/destiny and are citizens of a democracy that serves their needs. It is only by individual insight that the illusions of self determination and "democracy" are shattered. The govt cannot allow the majority to become aware of the box they are in.

The "democracy" certainly is serving the needs of the majority feeding the debt frenzy, but they are not the wealthy.

Clink!Gandalf's Gold#11138911/6/03; 11:09:42

21mabryThe Journal#11139011/6/03; 11:21:11

Yesterdays wall street journal had an article about rising commodity prices world wide.They suggested if one wants to invest in gold,one should buy less risky gold mining stocks.I thought par for the course them saying paper is safer than metal in hand.On another note I had a friend convinced to buy some metal with some of his paper profits he backed out and did not do it,he said stocks are coming back and he was gonna wait on buying gold.I said thats your decision and left it at that.I spent a few hours explaining how to buy metal and why he should I feel like I wasted my time.This guy made a bundle in tech I am taliking a couple hundred thousand but he lost it all now he thinks he is gonna get it backO well I tried.21
Goldiloxmetal vs. paper#11139111/6/03; 11:39:33


More evidence that it is easier to make some money gambling than to KEEP it. I've been playing some gold stocks, too, but they are NOT a proxy for my physical holdings. One is a GAMBLE - the other is inflation protected SAVINGs.

steadyproperty/money/ari#11139211/6/03; 11:43:07

ari i was walking down that property trail one day and seemd to somehow been sidetracked . let me revisit it again and get back to you .

gold and silver
honest something for
honest people.

trying to figure out honestly what that something is>

Cometose111383 Aristotle#11139311/6/03; 12:23:45

These are the gems that I look for on this website.....
thank you for delivering .....the latest on Pres BUSH...

President Bush represents a group of CONTROL FREAKS who are worried about their future of their children (Status and Quo)......

What he said , whether a guarded warning or not,,,,is very prophetic and the GOLDEN age that approaches in CHINA's economic history likely to bring new Vistas......on the HORIZON of HUMAN enlightenment and accomplishment......THE CHINEZE people only lack being armed with the right QUESTIONS to drive their culture to places WHERE NEW LIGHT DAWNS on all the world ......because they have a "MIND TO WORK" and they deserve a worth SPIRITUAL DESTINY to make meaningful fulfillment happen in their lives as they take the lead in the WORLD ECONOMY..........the control freaks , parents of the status quo .....lost their way when they lost their vision......and became mesmerized by the unsatisfiable mistresses of LUST < GREED< AND POWER.....

Giving the PEOPLE GOLD may turn the world back right side up again ..........what a wonderful do what ALVIN LEE(TEN YEARS AFTER) said he didn't know how to do ...."change the world"

Paradigm SHIFT anyone??????

R PowellAristotle // that gold and money thing....#11139411/6/03; 13:13:32

Hey, Ari, have you figured out what gold is yet?

Hehe, just kidding! I agree with you. Gold is a rare precious metal which many highly value. In fact, many value gold so much that they will exchange lots of money for it.

Gold....a rare, heavy metal
Money....a medium (commonly made of paper) assigned an arbitrary but constantly fluxuating value in order that it may be used in barter to fascilitate trade.
Trade without exchange of real property or similar exchange of goods and/or services according to mutual agreement but without an exchange of "money"

How's that, have I got it right?
Gold..a metal
Money...a convenient means for exchange settlement
Silver !! a metal whose dollar value will no longer buy a bushel of soybeans. Get it while it's cheap! (BTW, soybeans recently traded over $11.00 on the Chinese Exchange. Imagine, two ounces of silver for one bushel of beans!)

Question: If any tangible asset is accepted for payment or as payment, did that asset become "money" during the exchange? Now about that tree in the woods....
Metals...Get you lots!

Socrates964Friday bash alert!#11139511/6/03; 13:48:17

Gold stocks behaving badly at the end of the session!
Euro sinking below 0.382 Fib.

Expect attack on POG tomorrow (as if you needed to be told).

Short-term investors should buy.
Long-term investors should yawn and go to the beach.

Socrates964Bash alert 2!#11139611/6/03; 14:07:28

The shorter they get, the more they get squeezed ;)
GonlyoldRef: Who Owns the Gold#11139711/6/03; 14:28:53

Aristotle said, "You haven't taken your thinking far enough. As with every proposal for a new universe, there has to be internal consistency in the logic or rules that govern that universe."

I agree wholeheartedly. Bravo my good Sir. It's true that I didn't go far enough with my issue. I will admit that the reason was that going further entered into the spritual realm of gold. But since you prodded me...

Why are you stopping with the universe? I happen to not believe that the universe is the only entity out there. Let's take this right on up to the third heaven, as described in the Bible, right to the throne of God and ask God who owns the gold. I think I know the answer. He's going to say something like I created the gold, it's My gold and I can do with it whatever I want. I not going to argue with that.

Returning to earth, we find a similar principle at work here: if you made it, it's yours. Car manufacturers "make" an automobile and then, rightfully so, claim that the automobile is theirs. I won't argue with that. Although keep in mind that the materials were "paid for" with fiat, valuless money.

Gold can't be "made", but it can be mined. The ground from which it came from can serve as evidence of title. And as you so rightly pointed out, "Was not that same title to ground paid for by Federal Reserve Notes? (all Gold from claims to mining rights on public land aside.)" Yes, exactly. And surely the US Treasury knows and, I believe, abides by this: that the ground can be used to ascertain title.

Consider what specie-man posted (#111370). "I should add that the initial legislation authorizing the US Eagle bullion coin program stipulated that the gold & silver had to come from US mines. The silver "strategic" stockpile was considered to be USA-mined, so it was eligible for use in the Silver Eagle program." This is consistant with my belief.

The ground is owned by the US. If gold is confiscated, under the "possession is 9/10's of the law" maxim, it will be based on the fact that no one but the US Treasury owns the gold here in America because everyone used fiat, valuless money to "pay for" it.

Oh my oh my... I was just getting started when I noticed the time. I'm so sorry, I have to go. Will continue later.

misetichGreenspan High#11139811/6/03; 14:52:44


In a speech to the Securities Industry Association in Boca Raton, Fla., Greenspan said that employers have been able to increase production without hiring new workers because of an "exceptionally high rate of growth in output per hour over the past two years."

But now the odds "increasing favor a revival in job creation," the Fed chairman said, because businesses need to rebuild their stocks of unsold goods that were drawn
In his speech, Greenspan said that in the past, during recoveries following recessions, the Fed has had "to move aggressively" to raise interest rates to keep inflation contained. But this time inflation "has been running only a little more than 1 percent over the last year,

"Greenspan High" reads the headline- He Must be to utter such nonsense as "But this time inflation "has been running only a little more than 1 percent over the last year, "

Since Sir Greenspan cannot define money - it doesn't surprise he cannot define inflation

This man is reckless

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetichECB PRESS CONFERENCE - Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank,#11139911/6/03; 15:16:16


Trichet: (Translation from French) Just very briefly I would like to say that we follow a strategy of a stable euro, a strong euro and a euro that inspires confidence. That is the strategy we follow, a strong, stable euro that inspires confidence. And by inspiring confidence we have market rates which are low both in the medium and in the long term, we inspire confidence among savers and that also creates a financial environment which is favourable to growth and to job creation. By having a euro that inspires confidence we also maintain the purchasing power of consumers and we therefore have consumers who find that they have more capacity to consume. And we have more investment and more consumption – all else being equal.


Trichet: Well, we all, of course, have assets and liabilities, if I may, chances and risks on the various continents, in the various big, or small, economies. And as far as the US economy is concerned, it is true that there is a certain lack of savings, an element which is reflected in the current account
Question: First of all, you have mentioned many benefits from the stability of the currency, but are you happy to be called "the ayatollah of the strong euro"?
Trichet: First of all, I would say that, as you know, all responsible central banks are pursuing policies that are oriented towards long-term strong currency. ........You cannot find any central bank in the world which would say that they would prefer to have a weak currency. It would immediately trigger a refusal of investors and savers to invest in that currency. It would elevate immediately the long-term and medium-term market interest rates. All market interest rates would increase. So it is very important for a central bank to preserve and reinforce confidence, confidence of – I would say – all economic agents, but particularly investors and savers

Trichet being described as "the ayatollah of the strong euro" -

Inflation in Europe measured by the HICP is hedging higher, thus EU cannot afford higher import price inflation without raising IR

Thus a strong Euro and Weak US $ is a certainty as the global monetary fixers juggle and rejuggle to find optimum levels

Doubt the imbalances created by these same fixers will be resolved

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

misetichThe Jobless Recovery - Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke#11140011/6/03; 15:35:55


The Slow Recovery of the Labor Market: Some Possible Explanations

Why has the job market remained relatively weak despite strong recent gains in spending and output? A number of hypotheses have been advanced.
First, some have suggested that firms over-hired during the late 1990s boom, implying that the levels of employment seen before the recession peak in March 2001 were not sustainable.
Second, some observers have pointed to increases in benefit costs to employers as a factor retarding hiring.
A third explanation for the slowness of firms to begin hiring is that an elevated level of political and economic uncertainty has made firm managers more hesitant to expand their businesses.
A fourth explanation for the slow recovery of employment is that much of the employment loss is the result of an increased pace of structural change in the U.S. economy.
As is widely recognized, the U.S. current account deficit cannot be sustained indefinitely at its current high level and will eventually have to be brought down to a more manageable size. However, eliminating the U.S. current account deficit too quickly is neither desirable nor feasible.
My conclusions therefore are relatively optimistic. The combination of faster growth in demand and slowing productivity growth should lead, in the next few quarters, to increased hiring. At the same time, inflation appears subdued and likely to remain so. Thus it appears that monetary policy can remain accommodative, supporting the economic recovery and the recovery of the labor market, without endangering price stability.

Bernanke admits he and the Feds don't know what's happening - he attempts to rationalize various theories to explain the jobless recovery

Admits there is little US can do to reduce current account deficit as it is a structural problem

Admists Feds are using the Hail Mary pass and hope everything works out as the Feds maintains its accomodative stance ( falling behind the curve again!)

That certainly inspires confidence! Doesn't it?

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Cavan ManTrichet's comments posted here#11140111/6/03; 15:44:42

He has revealed his "policy" as Governor. He has thrown down the gauntlet IMHO
Cavan ManDespicable....#11140211/6/03; 15:47:46

The $87 BILLION DOLLAR folly in Iraq being compared to the Marshall Plan!!!!! Is nothing sacred? That is purely spin and obfuscation. Thank you (NOT) for insulting the careers, memories and heroics of all those men and women involved in that endeavor not least of all Harry S. Truman and George C. Marshall.
GoldiloxCredit Agencies worry about China Bank health#11140311/6/03; 16:03:31

HONG KONG, Nov. 5 - Responding to hints in recent weeks from senior Chinese financial regulators that another bailout of the country's biggest banks might be needed, two credit rating agencies issued separate reports on Wednesday suggesting that China's previous efforts had not solved the banking system's troubles.

Goldilox: Either the Chinese are learning their "smoke and mirror" lessons from the western banks or all is not completely well in the new China capital economy. this from a country with a 40% export growth and 35% import growth

misetichAlarm for US entitlements grows along with federal deficit#11140411/6/03; 16:23:49;jsessionid=TGH2JMIIGCOBQCRBAEOCFFA?type=bondsNews&storyID=3771297


BOCA RATON, Fla, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The combination of widening U.S. fiscal deficits and the looming retirement of the "baby boom" generation is placing the world's largest economy on a collision course with a potential economic calamity, a prominent economist said on Thursday.
In turn, Siegel said, the federal government's obligation to that demographic will diminish the allure of U.S. assets that foreign investors could be reluctant to fund.

"Who is going to buy the assets of the 'baby boomers' when they are set to retire?" Siegel asked the conferees.
While he advocated federal spending cuts rather than hiking rates of taxation, Greenspan warned that "almost surely," the current liabilities of Social Security and Medicare "cannot be financed at the current tax rates."

Alarm bells ringing and flashing - Flip flopping Sir Greenspan wants spending cuts not tax increases (after all he give Bush the greenlight to cut as productivity gains etc...etc)

The US economy temporary pick up is due to government stimuli, military spending and low IR -

The Feds hope inventory require replenishment will stimulate production thus establishing the vicious circle of growth - yet auto industry inventories are rising, and retail sales are mediocre - and with all probabilities any production gearup will be done in China, etc rather than the decimated US mfg industry

As one poster recently said, American Corporations are hiring - unfortunately those hirings are in India, China, Asia

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

melda laureMarket timing#11140511/6/03; 17:56:58

Buy gold now, buy it later, and keep buying.

I dont see what all the fuss is over the allegations of "market timing" by rich mutual fund holders. For one thing, dont they always tell us that market timing "doesn't work"?

But apparently if you're rich then you must also be smart too, by definition? (snort!) And guilty too of course. Which of course means you need to be punished and give up all those "ill gotten" gains. That's the question I have: "what gains?"

Now it seems to me that if market timing doesn't work, then all the gains of the succesful market timers comes at the expense of the unsucessful market timers (who would be the vast majority, some win big, most just loose.) On balance they cancel each other out. Result: NO LOSS to the other holders of the fund. Um... well...

But of course the fund operators MUST have benefited right? Let's see, they permitted this sloshing around of assets and DIDN'T charge for it! That's unfair! They DIDN'T charge the commission that the lowly peon-run-of-the-mill average joe has to pay for HIS market timing. They didn't charge!

So they didn't collect their commission- THEY WEREN'T PAID. (supposedly if the fund operator was big enough, they got the benefit of more volume to keep their trading floor people busy, so maybe they made a few basis points).

Regardless of the correctness of the foregoing, the result is that the market timers churned their shares so much that in some cases (according to the news reports I heard- which are probably of extreme cases, and no where near the average) the fund portfolio turnover was in some cases as much as 700% in a year. Presumably the winners had lots of short term cap gains to declare to the IRS. The loosers might have some losses.

BUT ALL FUND HOLDERS had higher cap gain "distributions" as a result!

Note: (theoretically, in the degenerate case where one bunch of timers EXACTLY match the opposite trading activity (same time, same size trade) of the other bunch, THEN in that case, there are no cap gains for the fund to distribute: each group has merely traded places with the other, and the fund doensn't need to enter the market to buy or sell)

2nd Note: (given my aglarious ignorance of the us tax code, It is possible that I am toatlly wrong here.)

So I ask the question: is it possible that Uncle Sam was the biggest beneficiary of the market timing. In effect, the portfolio turnover due to the timers forced all the "buy and holders" to in effect pay maximum cap gain rates to the federal government for the priviledge of buying and holding.

In a rising market, the new money comming into a fund usually covers redemptions- all the cap gains are due to management investment decisions, and not to operational needs. Yet if the market timing big shots were successful, they forced the fund to sell high, buy low and while they themselves had to pay the maximum tax rate (presumably) their fund ALSO had to book those sales and pass on the liability.

There's the real scandal: mutual funds act like a federal government scam to skim your money.

So that's why I predict that the SEC wont antagonize the mutual fund industry too much. The federal goverment needs the rent money. And if punitive fines ARE imposed, then let me be the first to DEMAND that Uncle Sam cough up HIS ill gotten loot as well!

Wont happen!

If you want to buy and hold, stick to those yellow poker chips- the kind that go "ding" and aren't subject to the wild fires of the comming dollar holocaust. Because on that day, your mutual fund statement will be about as useful as a fire insurance policy from a bankrupt insurer. Better to hold gold than ashes.

a nation of one...#11140611/6/03; 18:21:33

Does anyone know why the stock market is going up?
melda laureClink, Gandy's gold#11140711/6/03; 18:23:43

That reminds me of the old gilgalad commemorative issue that came out... sheesh... mustve been about 27 years after 3319. It had seven tiny little stars (just the same shape as on the US double eagle. It wasn't a pure gold coin however, I dont remember the process but the stars were of isildinnu. I've seen a few put on the pommel of swords and such. The neat thing about it was you could make change by starlight.
AgingfastRe: Why is the stock market going up?#11140811/6/03; 18:53:57

Because the prez election is a year away and investors know that WHATEVER must be done will be done.
a nation of one..#11140911/6/03; 19:02:06

How much money does it take to make the stock market keep
on going up in this way? Where is that money coming from?
Are you sure that there are enough people investing on the
sure bet of the re-election year actions to account for
all of it?

GoldendomeR . Powel response to msg. #111394#11141011/6/03; 19:12:28

R. Powell, your question (I believe rhetorical):

Question: If any tangible asset is accepted for payment or as payment, did that asset become "money" during the exchange?

I believe the answer is, "No". Barter is barter, and though items may transfer value for value exchanged...that transaction, or even a series of similar transactions, would not elevate the assets involved to "money". Money is something accepted as a "medium of exchange" and measure of value. An item, to be money, must pass freely in exchange for all items in business, commerce transactions. My accepting your cord of firewood in exchange for my load of road gravel, would in no way make either of those items money; for neither the butcher, the baker, nor the candlestick maker may exchange with us for any of our barter commodities. As I say, rhetorical, as I believe you were just wishing to eliset a response.

This also brings to mind the many other requirements that historically must be fulfilled before an asset ascends to the status of money. They have been listed before but it's good to repeat them. The asset must possess:
1) Intrinsic value
2) durability (indestructible)
3) Divisibility
4) Portability
5) Fungibility (sameness and interchangeable)
6) Limited in supply, but not so limited as to be unattainable.

At the point where an asset is accepted as money, it's value as a "store of value", "wealth property", and medium of exchange overtakes or supercedes it's intrinsic use value and it trades at a higher value than for it's former intrinsic uses.

Only one asset today fills the bill. Atomic number 79...Au...Gold.

Otherwise: wood is only wood-- gravel, gravel-- and paper, of course, only paper; though governments' now require us to take it due to legal tender laws.

You bring up another subject briefly: Silver. Poor--sad--sorry-silver. And I say all that with regret not derision as it may sound. Sorry to say that Silver has lost it's shine as money, store of value, wealth property--what-have-you! It's a shame, because readers of this forum probably own a ton (literally) of the stuff, myself included.

What value we hold for silver as money now probably is left over love from our nations past history of Bimetallism, under which the U.S. and the known world operated until about the 1870's or so. The ratio of Silver to Gold, for U.S. coinage at the mint, began at 15 to 1, went to 16 to 1 in about 1834, but after Europe gradually shifted to monometallism (Gold Standard) beginning about 1871, the ratio increased to believe-it-or-not, 40 to 1 by about 1900 or 1910, somewhere in there. The last two presidential elections of the 19th century were fought over money (Gold and Silver). Interesting subject to investigate.

Poor silver was demoted to small coinage valuations, but large tender valuations were in Gold.

In short, Gold and Silver were not homogenous when it came to monetary valuation, and of course they are not fungible, either.

Today, silver's role seems to be strictly a matter of commercial value. What is the Silver to Gold ratio today? Big number. This shows, I think, what silver's role is in the world today (commerce)...not what we think it is, or what we may think it should be, or will be. We can hope and wish and think that it will return to a role in the world's monetary system, but to this point it is off the radar screen...Sorry.

By the way, Bimetallism is still an interesting idea and could probably work--but we won't hear anyone speaking about it. Not now, anyway.

Nice evening to you, ----------Gdome

DruidGoldendome (11/6/03; 19:12:28MT - msg#: 111410)#11141111/6/03; 19:31:17


Inflation is defined as an increase in volume of the money supply, and deflation, as a decrease. Thus, the money supply is said to be either growing (inflating) or shrinking (deflating).

But there is a problem. The definitions for inflation and deflation contain a false assumption: that the money supply is a measurable volume. How do you measure the volume of money supply in dollars?

The dollar is a false weight and measure! The dollar is fraud! How do you measure a volume of a changing measure (dollars) and by what do you measure it? Do you measure the total number of dollars, or the value of the total number of dollars? I think the latter is better. And how do you measure the value? To measure a changing measure's value, we must use a monetary measure that is constant, such as gold.

The government does have several measures of the number of dollars that exist in the banking world, and one of their best measures of this money supply is M3. Current link to M3 statistics:

What if the value of each dollar goes down (deflation) much faster than the rate at which they create more of them (inflation)? I think that's called hyperinflation, and that's what's been happening for over two years now, and I'll show you how to see that and measure it.

For the purposes of this essay, I will look at the value of M3 against the dollar price of gold at the time, because gold is money.

In the table below, I'm dividing M3 into the gold price at the time, to see how much gold the money supply is worth in "gold value" at each point in time. Read the lines below like this: In June 1998, M3 was 5,711 billion dollars. If you divide that by the gold price at the time of $296/oz., then M3 has a "gold value," or measure, of 19.3 billion ounces.

June 1998: M3 5,711 billion / gold price $296/oz. = 19.3 (billion oz. gold value)
June 1999: M3 6,221 billion / gold price $260/oz. = 23.9 (billion oz. gold value)
June 2000: M3 6,809 billion / gold price $288/oz. = 23.6 (billion oz. gold value)
June 2001: M3 7,628 billion / gold price $270/oz. = 28.2 (billion oz. gold value)
June 2002: M3 8,178 billion / gold price $318/oz. = 25.7 (billion oz. gold value)
June 2003: M3 8,761 billion / gold price $345/oz. = 25.4 (billion oz. gold value)
Sept. 2003: M3 8,909 billion / gold price $390/oz. = 22.8 (billion oz. gold value)

The last number on the far right of the equation is the number of ounces of gold that M3 can "buy in theory". It's a measure of the value of the money.

Note: the year 2001 was the pivotal year when things changed.

Druid: Goldendome to add too and hopefully not take away from your great post, I thought this was relevant as I've always asked how do you measure a dollar?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.An Invitation to Prospective Clients....#11141211/6/03; 19:32:32">News and Views
misetichRussia's Putin: Ready to 'Work With Euro' For Gas and Oil Nov 6 / 10:24 EST#11141311/6/03; 21:14:13


BRUSSELS (MktNews) - Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said
Thursday Moscow is ready to work with the EU to examine mechanisms to
start trading oil and gas products in euros.

Speaking at a press conference in Rome after an EU-Russia summit,
Putin said, "If our European colleagues are able to put together a
relevant system, we stand ready to work with the euro with regards to
gas and oil. This will require joint efforts."

He added, "It's not depending on us alone."

Putin also stressed it might "raise some problems" for the
world economy to move away from trading oil in dollars.

European Commission President Romano Prodi said that with the
expansion of the EU from 15 to 25 members next year "naturally it will
be more convenient for imports and exports to be denominated in the same
currency to avoid currency risks."
A switch to euro invoicing would not affect the long-term price of
oil but it could encourage Middle Eastern exporters to follow suit and
have a powerful effect on market psychology at a time when the dollar is
already under intense pressure.

Its only a matter of time...tick...tick...tick...

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

The StrangerMelda Laure#11141411/6/03; 21:47:40

Great post. I hope you will forgive a little effort at clarification. Most timers do their work with tax-deferred accounts, such as IRA's, pension plans and what-not. Timing taxable money in mutual funds gets to be a losing proposition very quickly, because, as you suggest, the extra tax bite will likely more than offset the usually small benefit which comes with timing.

Why is the benefit small? Well, as you suggest, nobody really times very successfully for very long. But also, remember, tax code severely limits how much one can deduct when his timing is off and he loses money. Remember, there is no limit to the gains for which he is taxed. No intelligent money manager wants to expose his client to odds as bad as this, not if he wants to keep him, anyway.

Another point: Timing is only unlawful when it is done in a fund which tells other investors they cannot do it. This is simply a question of fairness. If the fund prospectus permits timing by all shareholders, then there is no problem.

Finally, there is the practice of timing after the market closes and yet getting the pre-close price. This enables the timer to essentially hear bad news, which sometimes comes right after the close, and then sell at a price which is no longer available to anybody else. This little perquisite comes right out of the pockets of the other shareholders and constitutes outright theft.


PizzRandom Thoughts for What their Worth#11141511/6/03; 22:28:33

Think I've finally figured out just why Greenspan is against regulating the derivatives market.

There's an old addage in the markets that when stocks turn a deaf ear to bad news, buy. The result is what they tend to call the phenomenum of markets that climb a wall of worry. . . but. . . .

The US, from government down to welfare recipients (in the macro sense) are up to their armpits or better in debt, and we can't borrow or consume our way to a recovery on more.

California is the sixth largest economy in the world, bankrupt before the fires, and going downhill fast.

The automobile industry (the largest employer in the country on a vertical integrated basis) has peaked and will have at least a 3 year downturn. . .

The banks are pulling in their horns - easy money is gone (in that they aren't just financing anyone who can fog a mirror) - that's fact as I deal with it every hour of the day . . .

The housing refi market is on it's last legs, cause even if someone about as smart as the collective genious' in the FED try to lower short term rates, long term will still rise on inflation fears.

Even if rates stay stable, for a recovery WE HAVE TO INCREASE CURRENT RATES OF SALES, so what is the incentive for home buyers to trade up. . . .where we have been getting the increase is people using the drop in rates to trade up for the same PAYMENT!. So what's left that will not only increase sales, but maintain the momentum of what's transpired? NOTHING!!!!

When oil was in the 20's, it was thought that we had to be able to get it back into the low to mid teens to continue to expand. . . . now we're in the low 30's, and we are on the verge of recovery. . . I don't think so.

Does anyone think China has our best interest at heart? About the same as a pusher to a junkie, and our junk is credit and consumption.

So, least I degress, this wall of worry the markets are climbing is pretty much unscaleable, with PE ratios as high or higher than at the top. So why does it not go down? Well it will, as soon as the program traders quit jumping thru hoops after the futures markets (derivatives) are goosed by the same people writing script for CNBC, or until the mutual funds have to quit "timing" the market - there's more to this subject, but think about whose money may have been used to keep these markets propped up, and how. Hedge funds are'nt that stupid, and the money they invest is money owned by individuals who don't gamble or buy dead horses, but have been know to ruin careers at a minimum, or worse.

Or, as soon as our enemies figure we have spun on the spit long enough (I figure we're medium rare right now, so dinner may be served about anytime).

Gold's acting different over the past few months. The dips are being bought with purpose, the junior gold stocks and no names are starting to get bids and volume, while the general stock market is getting less and less advancers and most technicals are turning negative.

With rates having bottomed (and starting to rise), the economy on life support, there is going to be a rather large pool of cash that is going top be looking for a home, and when it starts, it will roll real fast. It appears to me, with the way gold is acting, there a lot of stealth money betting that PM's are going to get MORE than their fair share. . .

Need any more good reasons to be buying MORE physical gold and silver? It's also time to start looking at rolling paper gold into the tangible stuff. All paper has gone from somewhere between speculative and investment, down to gambling and at best speculation- in other words if it isn't shiney, heavy and in your control, you just might lose it.


PS, and don't ignore silver. Gold's going to get so expensive, all it will be good for is wealth (nice problem and I'm glad I'll have to deal with it), but when the fiat value of gold is irrevalent cause no one will sell, our little buddy silver is going to have a field day.

(Hey Rich, going to be quite nice buying a weeks worth of groceries for a silver eagle and waiting for change, isn't it??? (smile).

Goldendome@ Sir Druid-- Measuring the dollar#11141611/6/03; 23:44:05

Good evening Sir Druid. Yes, HOW do we measure a dollar? I would say there is no accurate measurement anymore; not since gold was demonitized, with nothing taking it's place as a stable asset to weigh or measure value upon. Not in the way for example, we say that 12 inches make up one foot, or that 32 ounces equal a quart. A standard of measure that is constant and consistent. All of these modern currencies float around each other like balloons in the wind; sometimes up--sometimes down, but always on the move against one another, or against any other commodity for that matter. There is no real measure anymore, just full faith and credit, confidence or no-confidence, and the resulting relationships in price.

The dollar used to be a known measure; a very well known measure. 24.75 grains of gold or 371.25 grains of silver were a "Dollar" when U.S. coinage was established in 1792. By dividing grains silver by grains gold we come to the first silver/gold ratio of 15/1.

Adjustments over the years changed that from time to time. The unfortunate mistake made at the time of the first readjustment to the silver/gold ratio in 1834 was, that to bring the mint ratio more into line with the open market ratio of the two metals (16/1), the congress could either increase the amount of the less expensive metal (silver)needed to equal a dollar, or they could decrease the amount of the more expensive open market metal (gold) in coins needed to make a dollar. Unfortunately, they chose the latter course, dropping the gold content to 23.2 grains/dollar while holding the silver amount steady at 371.25 grains. In effect, debasing the Gold coins of the United States by 6.2%.

If the standard of measurement sometimes changed in the old days, at least there WAS a standard over periods of time. Not like today where the dollar bobs up and down like a cork on the end of a fishing line.

Nice speaking with you.


GoldendomeSir Druid-- Adding on about dollar valuation and bimetallism#11141711/7/03; 00:07:16

Sir Druid: I should have added the effect of debasing the gold coinage by 6.2% in 1834, was to begin the removal of silver from the circulating coinage of the United States. Besides, they also got the ratio wrong. It should have been adjusted to about 15.5/1 (matching Europe) and thus inhibiting bullion flows based on arbitrage, rather than the 16.1 new ratio which made Silver now the slightly more expensive metal for monetary purposes...and you remember Gresham's law? What is going to happen when two metals are given the same monetary value, but one buys more of the other on the open market? Answer: The same thing that happened to pre-1965 dimes, quarters, and halves. They disappeared from circulation. -------Gdome
GoldendomeOf course one unit of silver is not more valuable than one unit gold#11141811/7/03; 00:19:53

No, I'm not saying that silver would buy more gold (one unit per one unit), but based on the silver gold/ ratio, of 16 to 1, Silver became the more valuable metal outside the realm of monetary circulation. Hope I cleared that up. ---Gdome
LeSinRussia & EU To Act Together - "Not Use Outdated Models of Cooperation"#11141911/7/03; 02:40:07

Putin: Russia and EU should act together
Only acting together can Russia and the European Union influence the building of new world order and the system of common values and interests, Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a Russia-EU summit in Rome Thursday.
In Mr. Putin's opinion, Russian-EU cooperation needs "practical, flexible and effective dialog at all levels", aimed at achieving concrete results and the real settlement of problems hampering successful cooperation, the Presidential Press Service reports.

At a time of important changes in Europe and in the whole world, "we must not use outdated models of cooperation", the Russian President said. "The coordination of our actions will determine how strong the voice of Europe will be in the global politics, economy, trade and the security issues," he stressed.

Mr. Putin also recalled that a strategic decision had been made at the St. Petersburg summit to create four common spaces in the spheres of economy, internal security, external security and science, education and culture. For his part, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said an additional impetus should be given to the Russian-EU relations.

Change is certain or does it just go round, again and again.
We simply live in more recent time period. After all Russia and the majority of its' population reside in Europe.

Must watch this Ruskie bear as it spans 11 or 12 time zones. Sits on a mass of rich and varied natural resources. Who would not entertain a dance or two with a bear and court all that natural wealth.

Yes, even move towards new models of cooperation and I suppose its financial instruments, can you say EUROs

Cheers "S"

SteveHCliff Droke writes that gold ownership is at risk...#11142011/7/03; 03:14:31

Some disturbing I might add.
HenriSteveH on Droke piece#11142111/7/03; 06:19:20

I don't know what to make of this, but IF such a two-teired system is contemplated, it may just be for the exact opposite reason Mr. Droke has presented. Consider all the trillions of greenbacks in circ outside the US (an unknown portion of which are counterfeit anyway) and the very small number of peachy keen notes that would be needed to sustain the domestic commerce. Which of these two batches of bills is most likely to become banana republic cash? Especially IF the US itself will not allow its return to our shores, what will become of all those greenbacks?
cyberbat@ Henri#11142211/7/03; 07:15:44

People outside the U.S. will simply digitize their cash with a deposit. Cross the pond and go to the nearest ATM for retrieval of the new bills. Works the same way in reverse!!

BelgianTwo tier dollar system ?#11142311/7/03; 07:39:34

An Internal and an external dollar not exchangeable for Americans (exchange controls)? Wich dollar will carry the exchange rate against non dollar currencies and Gold ? Will there be a fictive exchange rate between the internal (pink) or external dollar (green) ?
Wich dollar will be used to pay for US imports ? I have no knowledge of such a system having existed before. Is this comparable with the (chinese) system of share categories A (chinese) and B (foreigners) (yuan-rinmimbi) ?
Is this two tier system (?) a maneuver to escape US internal dollar-price-hyperinflation and leave the world on its own in managing the circulating outside dollar-reserve ?
Is this "the" signal that all dollars(greenbacks) outside the US are to become worthless and need to be compensated by Freegold ?
Why is this supposed rumor of a two tier system not causing more alarmist widespread reactions ??? Or is this a hoax ?

contrarianCliff Droke piece#11142411/7/03; 07:43:52

A few weeks this forum ran round the rosie regarding this Cliff Droke piece, to the point where MK had to step in and provide accurate information on the mechanics of gold ownership. Read MK's book if you need accurate details on gold, taxation, confiscation, etc.

Much of what the Cliff Droke piece says is not accurate, especially with respect to reporting requirements.

After considering this issue in depth, I came to the conclusion that peach notes are not significant in the larger scheme of currency machinations. It's just an anti-counterfeiting measure, of which there have been many before.

When and if something happens regarding the currency (I mean the govt taking matters into its own hands), it will be sudden and overnight, and unless you've made preparations in advance (gold, shifting assets overseas, shifting to other currencies, etc.), you will be left holding the bag. That's usually how forced currency devaluations happen (think Argentino, Mexico).

I know many with conspiratorial leanings will disagree with me, but for the most part, I don't think the govt is capable of thinking THAT far ahead. They are just struggling with keeping a brave face and deluding the public, until such time as their transparent scheme unavoidably unravels, as do all fiat schemes. You see how Greenspan struggled to put a brave face on the current picture. And you see how Bernanke, in his recent speech, gave every reason but the real one for why employment isn't picking up now and isn't going to anytime soon: jobs offshoring to China and India.

Notice how Snow recently backtracked to the London Financial Times on his earlier promise of 2 million jobs!

Socrates964Jobs data#11142511/7/03; 07:50:03

Hmmm...let's see if I've got this straight - financial markets are wildly excited about these numbers even if they show that the rate of job creation is actually slowing MoM (from 160k to 126k) and this 126k number is inflated by 13k due to Californian retailers hiring temporary staff to deal with the strike/lockout there. Main job growth areas seem to be waiting on tables, temporary help and doctors' receptionists. Wow! This recovery must be for real!

Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 126,000 in October to 130.1 million,
seasonally adjusted. This followed increases totaling 160,000 in August and
September (as revised). During the February-July period, payroll employment
had decreased by an average of 85,000 per month. (See table B-1.)

Professional and business services added 43,000 jobs in October, following
an increase of 70,000 in September. Professional and technical services con-
tributed over half of the job gain (24,000) in October, with its management
and technical consulting services component adding 7,000 jobs. Within admini-
strative and support services, employment in temporary help services continued
to trend up in October. Since April, temporary help has added 150,000 jobs.

Employment in health care and social assistance rose by 34,000 over the
month and by 255,000 over the year. In October, ambulatory health care
services added 18,000 jobs, with about half the gain in offices of
physicians. Social assistance added 8,000 jobs in October, largely in
child day care services. Employment in private educational services grew
by 23,000, seasonally adjusted. Job gains over the last 3 months have
more than offset declines that occurred in June and July. Over the year,
employment in private education grew by 56,000.

Within retail trade, employment in food stores rose by 13,000 in October,
reflecting the hiring of additional workers in anticipation of strikes. Since
April 2000, however, employment in food stores has trended down.

Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food services and drinking
places added 23,000 jobs in October, following a gain of 20,000 in
September. Restaurant employment has increased by 113,000 over the year.

Employment in construction was little changed in October. Since February,
the industry has added 147,000 jobs. In the financial sector, employment in
credit intermediation, which includes mortgage banking, fell by 10,000, re-
flecting the decline in mortgage refinancing activity.

Manufacturing employment decreased by 24,000 in October, with small
losses distributed throughout most of the sector. Factory job losses in
September and October averaged 26,000, well below the 53,000 average for
the prior 12 months.

After a small increase in September, employment in air transportation
was down over the month. Since reaching its most recent peak in March
2001, the industry has lost 138,000 jobs.

Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)

The average workweek for production or nonsupervisory workers on private
nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour over the month to 33.8 hours, season-
ally adjusted. The manufacturing workweek and manufacturing overtime were
unchanged from September, at 40.5 hours and 4.2 hours, respectively. (See
table B-2.)

- 4 -

The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.4 percent to 99.1 in October
(2002=100). The manufacturing index fell by 0.2 percent over the month to
94.3. (See table B-5.)

Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)

Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private
nonfarm payrolls increased by 1 cent over the month to $15.46, seasonally ad-
justed. Average weekly earnings rose by 0.4 percent in October to $522.55.
Over the year, both average hourly and weekly earnings increased by 2.4 per-
cent. (See table B-3.)


The Employment Situation for November 2003 is scheduled to be released on
Friday, December 5, at 8:30 A.M. (EST).

adminNews & Views On-Line#11142611/7/03; 08:19:21


China Ups Gold Reserves.
Three "Big" Bears.

Ten BearsQuestion#11142711/7/03; 09:08:04

I recall reading, three or more decades ago that the rulers had plans for changing the worlds’ currencies to a three- unit system. One block would encompass the Americas, one Europe and Russia, and one for Asia. Have not seen that theory in print lately even though things appear to be heading in that direction (at least in Europe). Any thoughts?
Socrates964Mighty Euro#11142811/7/03; 09:08:18

After this morning's job figures, I was expecting a week or so of scratching my head, so I'm pleasantly surprised that the Mighty Euro (new Trichet flavor) is proving to be spinproof. Another cent and we have a turnaround and are on our way to glory. Fingers crossed!
PizzTen Bears#11142911/7/03; 09:28:41

Nothing wrong with your thinking, and same thoughts have crossed my mind lately.

I also haven't seen anyone connect the dots over the Russian oil situation. Seems I read somewhere that a few months back Bush SR. was in Russia on oil issues, then Russia waives the ol for Euro's threat, then the head of their industry gets arrested (could he have been cutting a deal with US that was not part of the Kremblin's plan?), and now the Russia - Europe oil connection seems to be on the front burner again.

Ties in with the three currency plan also, but we would still have the Yuan/Islamic Dinar issue to deal with for a third - maybe four currency blocks?

Interesting. . . .


GoldiloxSpot and Spike vs. Dx#11143011/7/03; 09:49:49

The employment figures (Ho Hum) seemed to have a very fleeting effect this morning. Perhaps the huge backward revisons are beginning to be suspect. An analyst on CNBC this morning noted that we need to create 130K jobs per month for a number of months consecutively to dent the UNemployment figures.

Gold dropped quickly to $377 and exhibited a strong opportunity to someone as it it quickly regained a positive posture. The Dx is falling again, so the news must not be particularly inspiring.

Ten BearsPizz#11143111/7/03; 10:03:05

Good points about Russia and oil.

It has been a long time since I read the currency block info. Do not recall if it was in a far "left" or far "right" publication. In either case they may have been on to something. As has been pointed out here by many posters, the dollar must fall as a world reserve currency…(appears propped up primarily by Japan and China).

Kissinger's trade deal with China at the time Nixon defaulted on gold payments very likely was part of the plan to extend the dollar's time line. (US to build up China's manufacturing base in exchange for rotation of U.S. Consumers trade dollars back into U.S. bonds

GoldiloxCliff Droke Piece#11143211/7/03; 10:03:54

Perhaps inflammatory, but the Treasury's motivations are quite worthy of examination. As a huge percentage of all dollars exist electronically, the excuse of anti-counterfeiting measures doesn't really wash. Two-tiered currency suspicions are possible, but not yet explored sufficiently to be assured. Trackability of currency transactions (anti-contraband, tax avoidance, and cross-border asset smuggling come to mind) is probably important in the major acheme of things.

Two important questions goldbugs should investigate and resolve are:
1) How, if at all, will this affect expatriated wealth accumulation?
2) Does this action possibly portend any new restrictions in PM ownership and accumulation?

Although theories abound, and most are unlikely, we would be imprudent to assume that some related change is not in the realm of possibilities.

White RoseLets not worry about the color of the money#11143311/7/03; 10:20:49

I think that in the early 1990's, the Treasury department looked at the advance of "personal printing" technology and decided that it was time to have a systematic upgrade to the currency. I think they plan to have new bills every 4-6 years. First it was the "big portrait" bills, next the crayon colors. I'm sure they have a team working on the next few generations. This is a natural response to make it harder for a few teenages to make some money to afford a trip to the movies each weekend.

I do not believe there is any plan to divide the world into different colors of US money. In a flash someone could air-freight a crate to Hong Kong with a huge number of peach colored $100 bills, when these bills become available.

Lets worry about other issues, like why the US is moving a few hundred bombers from the west coast to the middle east this week. Perhaps they are finally going to take out the "super bill" makers in the Bekaa valley of Syrian controlled Lebanon that are using the printing presses the CIA gave as a present to the Shah and now are in the hands of Hizbollah. You see, it is all about preventing couterfeiting.

Goldiloxre: Color of money#11143411/7/03; 10:32:42

@White Rose-

A few hundred bombers to do a job best suited to a well placed hand grenade. Sounds like Sir AG is creating military policy, as well!

Ten BearsMorning thoughts, Dave Lewis@ Chaos#11143511/7/03; 10:51:09

Morning thoughts, Dave Lewis @ Chaos

Snip> "specifically I'd like to spend today speculating on the differences between a dollar standard and a gold standard with two aims in mind: 1) to explain one source of economic confusion, the application of gold standard language to a fiat standard system, 2) to apply the notion of an event horizon between two conditional states to the current economic environment"

"In the equilibrium state which is formed under a gold standard monetary system, inflation and deflation are two sides of the same coin. Inflation occurs on the upcycle and deflation follows on the downcycle. The solutions to either problem were time, so long as one held to the convertibility standard, the long term general price level would remain stable."

A good read from Dave today.

Socrates964Pizz/Goldilox#11143611/7/03; 11:03:54

1. While Droke's technical work is impressive, he positions himself towards the extreme end of the conspiracy theory spectrum and seems to be obsessed with the idea that the US Govt/NWO/Illuminati are preparing a Nazi-style regime of repression and terror for its inhabitants - a gold confiscation piece is thus about par for the course from him.

2. I think the whole issue of whether or not Russia prices gold in euros or not is a red herring/piece of public relations. I have heard on good authority from a large oil producing company that if a customer of a large producer nation wants to buy oil in Euros, it takes nothing more than a stroke of the lawyer's pen - 'e.g. outstanding invoices will be settled in U.S. dollars or in any recognized currency that may be agreed between the contracting parties from time to time.'

You've no doubt heard the anecdote about Putin telling Bush over dinner that the Russians were very concerned about conservation and thus have special vets who surgically remove caviar from sturgeon and then suture the fish and return them to the Caspian. This story, plus the Debka story about the wonderful new oil terminal at Murmansk are probably about on the same level as the stitched-up sturgeon.

3. Note the big intraday turnaround in the Euro - spin is not dead yet, but in bad shape.

GoldiloxDroke Piece#11143711/7/03; 11:26:50

Soc, et al -

I don't disagree with your analysis of Droke's work, but I am very interested in alternative explanations, of which there seem to be none which include any comprehensive analysis. While I don't subscribe to the worst case conspiracy theories, I also don't care much for the "head in the sand" fluff responses akin to Heckle and Jeckle market analysis.

A reasonable analysis will probably find motivations somewhere in the twixt region between fluff and fanaticism.

ZhishengUp into the Close.#11143811/7/03; 11:30:35

Near the high of the day.

Looks like the rise today was pretty much a result of the dollar swoon (in spite of the massaged unemployment numbers).

contrariandroke piece, goldilox, etc.#11143911/7/03; 11:49:15

don't forget that isn't it true that when you're talking about money supply, only 5% is in physical form--consequently, perhaps one could say that the peach color change isn't significant.
Great Albino BatThis caught my eye...#11144011/7/03; 11:51:11

I think it was Christie's Auctions in N.Y. just sold a piece of canvas with paint on it, for TWO TONS OF SOLID, PURE GOLD! One of those "treasures" of "art" by Modigliani. ($27 million US)

Another example of money being thrown away recklessly, was the sale for over $8 million US of a bronze as ugly as sin, by Giacometti. This junk is supposed to be art.

This is inflation taking hold, with a vengeance. What we may be getting pretty soon now, is the world-wide "crack-up boom" where there is a generalized frenzy of speculation, preceding the collapse. I read and hear (in Rome) of the pickup in the economies of Japan, Europe, and the US. Thanks, I would say, to calamitous excess in credit creation in the U.S.

Another sign that world inflation is taking hold, is the general trend for rising interest rates. When this trend is firmly in place (just beginning, now) then there will be no stopping rising interest rates.

As I say, we may be on the verge of the "crack-up boom", that frenzied "prosperity" characterized by reckless speculation, on a world scale.

On another note, yes, when inflation is firmly in the saddle, then the value of money can fall faster than it is actually being created. So, there can be an apparent "scarcity of money" in the very midst of uncontrolled expansion of money. (See works of L. von Mises. "Theory of Money and Credit".)

Another note: if bombers are being sent to M.E. at this point, then PERHAPS the expansion of this crazy war in Iraq will take place soon, by bombing Syria and Iran. More madness to cover previous madness.

From Rome: this Rumsfeld character appears amazingly incompetent. This is the guy that wants mini-nukes? Lord Save Us!

I hope some here, were able to take advantage of the excellent low prices of gold available this past week.

Have a good weekend, all!


Paper AvalancheSecond week in a row POG closed over $380#11144111/7/03; 11:53:38

Tick, tock.

Tick, tock.


Federal_ReservesNo beef in the Labor Data#11144211/7/03; 11:57:38

Another quasi bullish where is the beef report.

Still losing solid manufacturing jobs and replacing them with Wmart Clerks and resteraunt workers.

Meanwhile, the Challenger Folks revealed that planned layoffs spiked this month.

The dumb asses need to drop that dollar BEFORE they applied that massive stimulus. The wealth of the US is being exported. Its nuts!

Socrates964Goldilox#11144311/7/03; 12:01:02

Fair enough, but I think the confiscation theorists are leading you up the garden path - the point being that in an extreme situation, the problem that governments face is not stubborn faith in gold, but total lack of faith in the national currency. When this happens, most of the funds are either going abroad, or into real estate, equities or tangible big-ticket goods like cars/jewellery. Gold is an extremely marginal investment. If you are genuinely concerned about this, I'd recommend holding your gold in a gold-friendly country like Switzerland or Luxembourg.

I can tell you that I have already lived through a near total freeze on bank deposits (Brazil 1990) by a president who consorted with known criminals and who was subsequently impeached. The regime didn't confiscate gold (but put a 15% tax on it - as I recall), nor did they ever make it illegal to possess foreign currency. Nor did they confiscate gold in Argentina last year.

Again, comments about a peach-coloured dollar heralding a parallel currency regime are pure hysteria. China did this in the 70s and 80s, with the aim of rationing imports and making the locals consume domestic goods (doesn´'t really apply to the US, does it?). The Chinese quietly phased these out in 1995.

Socrates964(No Subject)#11144411/7/03; 12:06:40 addition, many countries change their banknotes regularly without anyone suggesting that the nation's wealth is at stake.

GAB - I won't argue with your views on modern art (let's just beg to differ)- except to say that if I had to flee the country in a hurry with one suitcase, I'd rather have the Modigliani than 2t of gold, purely on volume/weight grounds.

specie-manCurrency - Cliff Droke story - gold confiscation (not again)#11144511/7/03; 12:37:36

I've followed the evolution of US printed currency for quite some time now. The New peach-colored notes are, in my opinion, just another anti-counterfeiting step in a series of many.

However, can ANYONE here confirm a report that international travellers are not being allowed to take the new $20 bills out of the country, or bring old $20 bills into the country ?

If this is true, then that would carry some other heavy implications. Most likely that the new printed currency is part of a plan to hinder international drug traffic and money laundering.

The gold confiscation scare could be a "plant" by some entity that doesn't want higher gold prices ! Gold confiscation might benefit bullion banks who have shorted gold at low prices, but it wouldn't help an ailing currency.

If the US dollar starts to crumble, the attempted confiscation of gold will not save it ! The amount of gold that would be needed to provide gold backing for all those dollars out there would astronomical ! The amount of gold obtained by any confiscation would be only a single drop in a big empty bucket.

The closest the US dollar has ever come to a total meltdown was 1980. Look what they (the government) did then. They would do the same thing this time. The current perilous condition of the real estate market and consumer finances would dictate, however, that they wouldn't be able to raise interest rates as fast as they did in the early 1980s.

Any attempted gold confiscation would mean a total capitulation by the forces trying to keep the dollar strong vs. gold. Esentially, they would at last be admitting that gold, not dollars, is the ultimate store of wealth. This would totally destroy any shred of remaining confidence in the dollar.

The result would be a meteoric rise in gold prices (as measured in US dollars), and a thriving (untaxed) black market. The government would loose tax revenue and it could loose control over the economy.

In other words, I believe that the govenment has a lot more to loose by attempting to confiscate gold than it could possibly gain by doing so.

specie-manCoincidence ???#11144611/7/03; 12:41:10

Just as I submitted my last post, a song by "Bad Company" came on the radio:

"give me silver, blue, and gold"

Even the new paper money isn't blue.
(But the old true "Silver Certificates" had blue seals and serial numbers).

spotlightCliff Droke: Gold confiscation#11144711/7/03; 14:50:17

I totaly agree with all of your points.
I was going to address his article but you said everything I was going to say...

Clink!@ specie-man#11144811/7/03; 14:54:32

I was going to post this a couple of weeks ago, but the topic had (mercifully !) gone quiet again.

I can report that a family member left the US about three weeks ago, and re-entered a week ago. On neither exit nor entrance was anything even mentioned about the new notes. I like a 'good' conspiracy as much as anyone else but this doesn't ring true in any shape or form (as others have pointed out earlier).

The only thing that I hope for with the upcoming $50 and $100 (have the smaller denominations been left alone ?) is that they actually look readily different from each other colorwise, and appear to have been designed in the 21st rather than the 19th century. But whatever, they will still burn as well.


PS. Just had another thought for the suspicious of mind. In view of the widespread use of banknotes in the partaking of a certain white powder (I can't remember the statistic, but it was something like one in three notes was found to be impregnated), supposing these new notes react with said powder in a 'nasty' manner ? Another weapon in the War on Drugs ! (No, I won't be asking anyone for their personal experiences with the new note .....)

GoldiloxDroke Piece#11144911/7/03; 15:05:16

Soc, et al,

I'm just amazed that everyone addressing the question is either touting some totally unfounded opinion or responding with a comparison to some past situation. All I asked was whether or not anyone had any evidence about CURRENT motivations. It seems that the answer is NO so far. When major transactiions all occur electronically, it's difficult to believe that the government would spend $33M advertising a new bill to thwart loonies with Xerox machines.

specie-man@ Clink! & another rumor#11145011/7/03; 15:29:29

Thanks for debunking the new $20 bill international transfer rumor.

The only motivation that I have heard of for the new $20 bills (except for Droke's article) is that it is an anti-counterfeiting measure.

Spending $33 million to try and thwart a few Xerox counterfeiters is exactly the sort of thing the government would do ! Hindering counterfeits is a component of the so-called "strong dollar policy" (the Treasury Secretary said so himself !). In fact, it is about the only thing left of the "strong dollar policy". The actual amount of couterfeiting is of secondary importance. What they really want is for foreigners to have confidence that the currency is not widely counterfeited. Of course, people might soon notice that government printing presses are running around the clock ...

On another rumor, can anyone here confirm or disprove the rumor I posted the other day. Namely, that a deal was worked out between the EPA, US Mint, etc. so that an Idaho silver mine would supply cheap (underpriced) silver to the US Mint in exchange for not having to clean up the mine site to current EPA standards ?

Gandalf the WhiteYES !, Sir Specie-man, I can "disprove" that RUMOR !! <;-)#11145111/7/03; 16:09:15

On another rumor, can anyone here confirm or disprove the rumor I posted the other day. Namely, that a deal was worked out between the EPA, US Mint, etc. so that an Idaho silver mine would supply cheap (underpriced) silver to the US Mint in exchange for not having to clean up the mine site to current EPA standards ?
TOTALLY bogus !
But, because of your previous HOME-RUN on the Eagles, I did not wish to jump on your error of even believing that one !

Paper AvalancheWhile we're at it - off topic.....#11145211/7/03; 16:44:41

Does anyone know the what the soviet acronym "KGB" stood for and it's english translation?

Heard rumors that it was similar to Department of Homeland Security in meaning or translation. Just curious if any of our Eurpoean friends could confirm or deny for a stupid American.

Take care all.


Gandalf the WhiteSir P A !!!#11145311/7/03; 17:22:09

A little OFF SUBJECT !!
just do a search on "KGB"
you will get all you need, EXCEPT GOLD !

KiloStemming Counterfeits ?#11145411/7/03; 17:41:55

Since the contention of the Federal Reserve and Govt. is that the new fiat is primarily for the purpose of stemming future counterfeiting, but in the same breath, stating that the "old bills will still be good -- forever", then just what is the point? The counterfeiters just keep making the same "old" bills and passing them right along with the "real" new ones. Government thinking in-action ?
ZhishengKGB#11145511/7/03; 17:53:02

@Paper Avalanche.

Took a little Russian in school years ago.

G=Gosudarstvbennoi-->of Government(or State)

Pretty close to Department of Homeland Security at that!

silvesterNo More Eagles?#11145611/7/03; 17:53:20

I posted a question a few days ago about availability of
Silver Eagles. I became curious due to an add in the back of a popular American outdoors/hunting magazine that stated Silver Eagles would not be minted after 2003. Thanks for the discussion.

Now I am reading an add from a different company, same magazine stating Gold Eagles will not be available after 2003. Both companies are in the business of selling Eagles.

Sorry I won't provide a link due to respect for our host. But surely we know more about this??? Or???

White HillsBlast from the past#11145711/7/03; 18:41:59

steadyeagles/ & other stuff#11145811/7/03; 18:47:10

silvester dont sweat it if that co dont have them our gracious host will. the worry you express is unfounded dont sweat it, as there will always be eagles available just not always at these prices nor necessarily in this fiat script but if you want 0ne bad enough you will be able to find one or heck just call usagold and they will take care of you no problem.
White HillsBlast from the past#11145911/7/03; 19:45:03

testing! A friend of mine brought me a newsletter from her brokers office because she knows of my interest in Gold. It is the SILVER @ GOLD REPORT of late DECEMBER 1979. The report is of an interview by SGR of world currency authority Dr. Franz Pick.

I am going to quote just a few of his comments because of there importance of the time. The question to the forum will be: Was he right? wrong? or was his timing 23 years off?

Pick: American currency policy since 1940 has been nothing but an unbroken series of flos. By the end of Octoberr 1979 the unofficial purchasingg power of the greenback had shrunk from 100 cents to only seven cents. This destruction and irreversible rise in the cost of living has been hidden by a deliberate lie called the Consumer Price Index. Most of who own imaginary paper assets, including cabinet members, presidents of blue chip corporations, and pension fund maagers, do not want to know about the decomposition of what they believe they own. So you see, I have little hope that Mr. Volker will be able to singlehandedly correct such a bad situation.

SGR: Why do you call the Consumer Price Index a "deliberate lie?"

Pick: The debasement of statistics is as much a part of the whole scheme as the debasement of the currency. How many people know that the CPI has been periodically and systematically falsified since 1947, as a result of the gigantic creation of additional banknotes and bond issues that began in 1940?
The undisputed domination of the United
states overt the IMF has also led this oranization to adopt a similar system for its statistical publications., which has changed the base for its cost of living data six times since 1948. But nobody wants to know about this. The general public, along with the generally inintelligent investor. must be kept ignorant of their willingness to lose most of their assets. The press, radio and television constantly babble about inflation, but they do not analyze the problem in terms of constant dollars. It is nothing butna massive self-deception.

SGR: For the benefit of our newer readers, Dr. Pick, would you discuss "constant dollars?"

Pick: The idea of a balance sheet in constant dollars is nothing new. I rises as a necessity whenever a currency loses its value. The man who calls himself an z'investor," the completely immoral so-called :securities analyst," the administrator and operator of mutual or pension funds, the corporate president-all bear responibilty for cheating the public, and, which is even more tragic, for cheating themselves. They do not want to acknoledge that between 1940 and 1979, by offical government figures, the US dollar lost 81% of its domestic purchasing poweer. the Swiss franc 78%, the British pound 95% , the French franc 99%.

Austria, Germany and Hungary in 1920, France in 1922, and Czechoslovakia and Italy in 1923 adopted constant-dollar balance sheet methods. Large companies has to have some means of analyzing the real value of profits. All of these countries created excellent lawa that filled volmes, whose purpose was not only the adoption of figures to new currencies, but also involving taxes, rents, debts and liabilities.

Whitehills: I will in the future post what Dr. Pick says about Currency reform: events that could lead to radical currency reforms, Confiscation of gold. All of this of course is from the past but from everything I have read he is only 23 yrs off in his timing. It would be interesting to know what happened in 1980 than side-tracked Dr. Picks predictions. We still are going through what he predicted in 1979. White Hills

TownCrierPretty enough to eat.#11146011/7/03; 20:20:51

Methinks somebody earned himself a cold beer on this one. Methinks that somebody is... me. Cheers.

We work hard so you don't have to! Holiday shopping was just made easy, boys! (I don't know about you, but if I never step into another mall at this time of year, I assure you, it would be too soon for me).


MKWhite Hills. . . .#11146211/7/03; 20:50:15

Dr. Pick was a Master -- a route to astute, practical, hands-on understanding. Many of us learned our economics on the knee of people like Pick, Hayek and Mises. Once you get it, it's hard to take the analysis spoon fed the public from lesser souls -- souls tied to a political agenda (left or right) lacking anything close to the intellectual integrity of individuals just mentioned. That type of commitment to excellence is precisely what is missing in the West today and sorely at the root of what ails Western civilization -- including its political accoutrements. Instead of the pseudo-intellectual clap-trap being fed today's liberal arts and business students at most, if not all, the major universities, one book -- "The Road to Serfdom" by Professor von Hayek -- in sum total would do more to map an understanding and basis for a rational modern economics than all the nonsense published willy-nilly by the modern eco-political establishment. And I've already said more than I should have for one evening............ Happy weekend to all.........
specie-man@ Gandalf - EPA & silver mine rumor#11146311/7/03; 20:56:56

Actually, I didn't BELIEVE the rumor, I just listened to it :)

I'm the skeptical type and would need concrete confirmation before assuming something like that was true.

But how do you know it is false ?

Gandalf the WhiteSir Specie-man --- HOW ?#11146411/7/03; 21:18:18

As a former longtime GS-15 in Washington, D.C. in that Federal origanization, specifically doing that type of effort, and as a major shareholder in the other company of which you speak, I know that things are not done that way, AND, also the company does not need that "favor".
OK ?

SmeagolO! Ssuch pretties!#11146511/7/03; 21:28:28

Hmmm, the 'Underhill Consstruction' ssigns are gone. Another room... what have we here?

Town Crier, nice work, yess, very nice! One beer, eh? are too easy! A case at leasst, for thirssty Crier! MY, O Precious look at all the glittering golden things!!


Gandalf the White***** I KNEW IT !!! It would be Sir Smeagol that would find "IT" first !!!!! <;-)#11146611/7/03; 21:39:08

YES indeed Sir Townie !
Have one on me too.

DruidTownCrier (11/7/03; 20:20:51MT - msg#: 111460)#11146711/7/03; 21:46:28

Druid: TownCrier, Great! Job. What a wonderful selection to choose from. You have both simplified (I have about as much love for malls as I do for bullion bankers) and complicated (beautiful choices) my life all at one time. I'm already making a list.
TownCrierGandalf, have an eye on Smeagol#11146811/7/03; 21:55:26

Of the 1,500 items, I think it is this ring, alone, that he has half a mind for. (The other half, of course, would be on fish).


GoldendomeGold and Silver Eagles?#11146911/7/03; 22:05:34

Why all of the chatter and apparent concern these past few days over whether or not the U.S. is going to continue or is not going to continue to produce the Silver and Gold Eagles? Who the heck really cares?? Even if they were both discontinued, there is no implication in market values that Au or Ag are becoming un-attainable--at this time, anyway. If you want Gold, buy some. If you want silver, buy some of that. There's still plenty of it about...and those type of bullion coins are certainly nothing special, so just buy some gold or silver if you're really interested in it...any date.
GoldiloxCongrats on the Xmas gift link#11147011/7/03; 22:11:11

Excellent job, Townie!

MK, good thing it's Friday, as it sounds like half your staff is preparing for a bender tonight!!

Smeagol1500?!?#11147111/7/03; 22:15:11

We knew it, we knew it! That Wizard's eye is worse than the curse of the lure of a Ring! Smeagol will jusst have to be a little 'sneakier' next time (great big grin).

The ones called Byzantine chains, they are beautiful, we like those the best. Much better around the neck than Elf-rope, gahh!


SmeagolPerfection#11147211/7/03; 22:21:17

@ Town Crier,
O yess, one hand full of It, a good Ale in the other, and a mouth full of fissh! What could be better?


Black BladeHello All! "Interesting" Week and Good Forum Reading#11147311/7/03; 22:31:07

I just dropped in to say hello and read the forum to keep up to date (I have a lot to catch up on). I should be back by mid-week next week as weather has slowed some progress on a couple of projects – wouldn't you know it we had a blizzard and extremely cold temperatures in Wyoming these last few days. It is rather early for this kind of weather too.

I was amused at the news of the unemployment data today and yesterday. I would venture a guess much of the "job creation" has more to do with temporary employment for hopes of a decent holiday season and few people who had well paying jobs are just taking any work they can find (much in the business and service sectors) at lower pay. It should be noted that there had been some changes in the methodology of data collection and calculation at the BLS in recent months (I had commented on this previously). Note that manufacturing continues to lose jobs at a nice clip though.

specie-man - msg#: 111450:

I believe that you may be referring to the Northern Idaho silver production region where the EPA had requested (demanded) all silver producing records of minerals in the region as part of a Bruce Babbitt inspired process (along with some environmental cleanup plans and a lot of extortion). The problem of course is that most of the companies simply do not exist anymore and the records demanded were from the mid 1800's. Another point missed by many is that mining was required and demanded by the US government without regard to environmental issues for well over 100 years and especially for the war effort (especially during WWII). What little mining that has survived to today is done within EPA requirements and the "sins of the past" were done at the behest of the very government that is extorting from these small companies that did not exist at the time. Similar efforts are (or were) pursued against miners in other regions of the country as well. In the early days of course environmental issues were never considered and that is a legacy of the expansion of the west (Manifest Destiny) and the demand for energy for a growing and developing nation that emerged into a Super Power. Mining today is nothing like the old days. When I started out I was an underground hard rock miner for the now defunct Anaconda Copper Corp. I was one of those who drilled the face of a drift with a jack-leg drill or worked in the stopes and shafts. It has changed a lot since those days in the early 1970's. Anyway, those companies are long gone but no one denies there are a lot of changes in how mines operate now and the new methods are more "environment friendly" and it is still evolving.

MK's Gold Market Commentary:

Very interesting reading indeed! A good series of articles I have copied for reading during the slow periods I will have to sit through in the next couple of days though I will be on the road still. Especially the Chinese gold consumption article - definitely read this one at the link! I have hammered away at this consistently in the DMR (hopefully to be expanded in in a few days). It has been rumored for quite some time that the Peoples Bank of China has been steadily accumulating gold for reserve diversification. 200 more tons is not hard to believe and I would not be surprised if it was much more. It has been rumored that the Chinese have been big buyers of official gold sales. Even if it is 200 additional tons – that is half the yearly WA gold sales limit. There are 108 licenses (I am working off memory here) issued for retailers for gold in mainland China with perhaps more in the offing. The current retailers are said to have difficulty keeping bullion (coin and bars) in stock where currently sold and waiting lists of interested buyers. When this market is fully liberalized and access more widely available to the 1.3 billion population we should see a heck of a lot of offtake of physical gold by the citizenry.

I have heard a lot of ads on the radio lately about gold as an investment and wealth preservation vehicle. I even heard a short discussion about gold (very pro-gold) on one national syndicated program while on the road. Sorry, but I don't recall who it was, but it was one of the daily conservative talk shows. Hey, maybe it was one of you! Cheers!

- Black Blade

Gandalf the WhiteBTW -- did anyone see the Chart of today's "ROUT of the CABAL" #11147411/7/03; 22:37:40,index&bartype=bar&year=03&STUDY2=&x=38&symbols=GCZ03&period=V&symlist=GC&size=SMALL&varminutes=60&STUDY3=&y=8&month=Z&STUDY0=&STUDY1=&bardensity=LOW&rco=4

It was easy to see the CABAL Friday attack start -- BUT look at the DEFENSE and the ROUT that went into the CLOSE !
Like Sir Zhisheng said at the time "UP INTO THE CLOSE" !!
NEXT WEEK should be something GOLDEN to watch.
Hear the clock ticking ?
BTW -- GREAT charting webpage !
PS: Welcome HOME BB !!

heavy mettleA Hypothetical Look at Commodity Money for the Dollar Block #11147511/8/03; 04:38:25

U.N.I.T. - Unit of National and International Trade; for lack of a better word.

There has been talk of radical changes for the dollar currency of the future. With its reserve status and value on the skids, this recent idea of commodity money could well serve the purposes of the current dollar power structure or any power structure for than matter. It could be dangled in front of some countries of the world producing commodities and/or holding dollar reserves/debt who would be interested in a trade of old depreciating debt units for new appreciating commodity Units. This would be on offer at a variable cost depending on each country's circumstances. The Unit would be the dollar centric player's answer to the reserve dollar fiat experiment somehow gone terribly wrong in years past and finding itself in a future crisis.

In a basket of commodities for international settlement, which gold could be included, the Unit would trade on the sound backing to these stated commodities and the countries producing them. This would also help to maintain gold in the commodity paradigm way of thinking; for only a period of time. Commodity producing countries would welcome the idea and indebted nations could possibly be given some form of debt forgiveness to accept the new Unit or God forbid combined with new loans. Control of some of the world's major oil and gas deposits would be helpful in getting the acquiescence of most concerned.

Using a basket approach would smooth out any bumps due to weather, distribution hic ups, spoilage, etc. As usual the average amount of commodities backing the Unit could be again lent out fractionaly at the 1/10 current practice for investment purposes and paperized to control supposed risk while slowly managing paper inflation. Old habits die hard. None would be the wiser as most people do not understand this mechanism anyway.

Possibly an average or fractional existing amount of each commodity found in the world markets at any given time would represent the Unit. A promise would be given that as the world population increases the monetary/ commodity base would also. This could take the ‘so called’ pressure off of using a defunct and outdated solely gold backed system or a free market in gold. Read sarcasm here and in the next paragraph.

The reason for not having a gold system would be that gold has been unstable in the past as a commodity currency. Just look at the price action recently and back in 1980. When it was fixed to a certain amount of silver as well as at a certain currency amount, these schemes did not work well and is proof of the gold standard's ultimate demise and failure. A basket commodity solution would now be needed and called for.

The Unit is the power structure's solution as opposed to a freer gold market with currencies being marked to market. It's the IMF dollar centric answer to the Euro, Yuan and Islamic dinar currency war. I would not expect any of these dollar block people wanting to go back to a disciplined sort of gold regime when it comes to debt issuance nor would I expect a total collapse of the game to be allowed as the beast is too big to fail. To sell the idea in the beginning they would fiend, for the audience, the virtues of discipline that commodities would provide in an ever increasingly unstable world. An international body could administer the changeover to add legitimacy to the offering.

Reasons for this type of scheme, as opposed to a more honest one, might be to keep the current system from obviously collapsing and to keep dollar holders of debt from going away unhappy. This would also put further control of world commodities under one umbrella in the longer run. I could envision under this type of scheme large corporations taking even larger shares of commodity production and distribution around the world; further globalization. That is if current trends remain the same.

Imagine the increased power the governing body would have in being able to start a brand new hope filled reserve currency experiment at the expense of the little guy commodity producers and the world's workers at large. More control of the issuance of the world Unit to corrupt trade and people in power as well as vicariously corrupting the markets commodities trade in. A continuance of the system on a much larger scale with control of the world's money, food and ultimately finished goods supply. What more could you ask for. Maybe a free market in humble pie and some truth on top.

Time frame for implementation: when gold's ‘currency behaving’ commodity price becomes too much to bare and the dollar is on the ropes, similar to 1978-80. Would it succeed in an environment of a crisis without an existing reserve currency alternative already in place? The sooner the crises the more advantageous before the Euro or any viable alternative could be offered to take root in a meaningful way. Only in a crisis can there be major change to possibly keep the game up and running. Time would be of the essence in this scenario.

I'd take nature's way of a stable free gold wealth market all days of the week because anything else is slavery.

This is just an off the cuff commentary and I'm sure full of more holes than Swiss cheese as opposed to, I hope, the smell of Limburger.

BelgianThe US$ (dollar-reserve) IS ON ITS OWN NOW......#11147611/8/03; 05:37:22

The US (block) will call more hens on deck to continue defending the dollar in the dollar-system. More tax-incentives for those who shift their non-dollar holdings into US$. Dollar-protectionism as a counter-weight against increasing dollar des-interest. Russia (Putin's Russia) comes closer to its Euroland natural neighbour.
The whole Middle East region got a refreshed (PNAC- warning with Bush's latest speach on "democratization". China continues to build on its "fall-back" stratego, once the dollar-defense should weaken.

Trichet made it clear : Euroland wants a strong-stable currency ! The ECB/BIS-system is almost in full control of the dollar's fate. The available dollar-reserves within the ECB/BIS-system can buy or sell more Gold Wealth Reserve Assets, affecting the POG versus the dollar and the euro !!! Both, dollar and euro are valued against Gold by those who have adopted an architecture that enforces their currency with a rising POG, the *NEW* Reserve Asset to replace the dollar-reserve-asset. Note that the French citizens are the biggest individual holders of Physical (under the matrasses) !

Trichet and Duisenberg are ONE !

Euroland is going to support (conditionally though) the American democrats and neutralize the measures that the present administration is taking as to facilitate the re-election of the Bush administration. No dollar-euphoria allowed !?
No Iraqi exit aid !? Increasing economical protectionism from both sides (US-EU).

The euro can evidence its general "stability" through the ECB/BIS-system which holds the leverage on the POG. Most of the dollar-POG action is to be seen on the New York side. When the euro is not pleased with the outcome, the action shifts to Euroland.

GondolinAm I going crazy or is it the rest of the world?#11147711/8/03; 06:46:16

Is it my (borrowed) PC or am I seeing things. Price charts at INO and K... are showing POG at $362.20 I've been offline for 3 days but this can't be correct. No mention of any massive drop on the forum. Someone tell me that's an abberation ( a horrible one).
21mabryAnything Real#11147811/8/03; 07:13:16

I was watching all quite on the western front.This movie should be shown to all high school seniors and should be viewed by congress before debating any declaration of war.A scene in the movie that struck me was a scene when a german soldier steals a dressed pig carcass.He brings it back to his bunker to eat with his comrades.There are a group of new hungry recruits in the bunker,he asks them if they are hungry and they are.The soldier asks them if they can pay for the meal they all say yes and pull out wads of money.The soldier says those are just pieces of paper aia dont want that have you got anything real like cigarrettes or congac.I thought this was very telling.During times of trouble paper becomes worthless and commodities are king.I would bet if a soldier offered gold or silver it would have been accepted.All quite on the western front is a movie made between ww1 and ww2 I believe hyperinflation may have been taking hold in germany at this time.This is one great movie.21
MKThe New Jewelry Page#11147911/8/03; 07:26:55

One of the interesting aspects of the new USAGOLD-Jewelry site -- and pushed for with determination by Randy and Jonathan -- is that the price on nearly all the items changes daily with the price of gold. This is an important innovation that takes advantage of the instant market access provided by the internet. The local jewelry store would find it impossible to react instantaneously to gold price movement, but our customers will be able to take advantage of a $5 dollar price dip, or stop-gap a rapid increase. This also gives us the ability to start our pricing in a lower range in that we are not forced to 'add-on' in order to protect from a sudden move to the upside. There's more to this jewelry site than meets the eye and the younger group at USAGOLD -- Randy, Marie and Jonathan did an excellent job from conception through throwing-on the lights yesterday early evening in bringing you a quality product. The ease of navigation and simple presentation there is in itself an accomplishment worth noting -- a reflection of long weeks of careful thought and hard work. Congrats and Well Done!!

These are quality pieces of jewelry from the best manufacturers, priced right and we've put together a fulfillment system that gets the gold gift to you in rapid fashion. This program takes every advantage of our long-standing presence in the gold market -- our contacts, reputation, and established good will. We've decided to stick with gold -- as that is our trademark -- and avoid stones where grading can be an issue. We hope you find the jewelry site useful for your holiday gift-giving needs, and decided to launch the Holiday Season early here at USAGOLD in order to get our large and prestigious clientele ahead of the curve this year. More and more people are finding the internet, with all its advantages, a handy and convenient shopping tool.

There are a few tweaks to be added to the new site, a few product lines installed. We will endeavor to add items over the coming weeks and months to offer an even wider selection of gold jewelry items.

Please remember, it is your purchase of gold from USAGOLD~Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Remarx@WhiteRose#11148011/8/03; 07:45:08

Can you point me to your source of information about the bombers moving from the West Coast to the Middle East?
Thanks - r

cockerel1Gold Jewelry, Bullion, etc.#11148111/8/03; 07:55:47


First let me say that the exquisite jewelry selection definitely should make Christmas easy for many readers on this forum and bring "wide eyes and bright smiles" from their loved ones.

Now for a bit of a personal dilemma.

I have tried to purchase from USAGOLD, and as a Canadian I understand the problems with movement between our two countries.

My question:

Can these items be made available either direct, or through some other Canadian dealer?

A Canadian@ Gondolin#11148211/8/03; 08:45:29

You were having a nightmare...stop eating cheetos before bed !
Goldiloxgold Price#11148311/8/03; 09:01:52


Check the date on your computer- maybe it's charting a past day's activity.

GoldiloxAll Quiet on the Western Front#11148411/8/03; 09:18:46


Can I have your riding boots?

I read this book recently along with a number of works by British war historian John Keegan. What amazed me was the numbers of casualties. i.e.

WWII - Dresden Fire bombing - 230,000
Hiroshima 220,000
WWI - One trench battle -250,000

The wholesale slaughter of "cannon fodder" by the 20th Century powers make Iraq look like a bad day on the subway.

I read a piece by an Indian peace advocate last summer that called the 20th century the "Century of Slaughter", as the wars and genocides took out 100 million people, about 1% of the 20th century population.

Goldilox"The Mystery of Capital"#11148511/8/03; 09:35:42

subtitled "Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else"

Speaking of good books, I recently acquired a volume entitled "the Mystery of Capital" by Peruvian Economist Hernando de Soto. After reading Jim Rogers' books, I was intrigued by 3rd world economies, and found a surprising description of both normal and black market economies in de Soto's work. His treatise states that the most difficult task in 3rd world economies in integrating the "extra-market" economies into capitalizable entities. Large portions of even the real estate markets exist outside of documentable rolls, rendering their property equity markets useless.

De Soto's model for equitizing 3rd world property is the 19th century property-homestead battles in the US. Even George Washington fought with "squatters" on his land. Once the "squatters" were legitimized and became "homesteaders", we were on the way to "democratization" of property and the ability to capitalize the equity.

The current struggles in Russia make a lot more sense to me after reading this book. In most struggling economies the battle is between traditional (sometimes archaic) property structures and entrepeneurs.

Anyway, it's a great book!!

cockerel1Interesting Article!#11148611/8/03; 09:51:22

(Washington, D.C. - October 14, 2003) Pioneering contributions to the theory of superconductors and superfluids resulted in the 2003 Nobel Prize in Physics being awarded last week to Vitaly L. Ginzburg, Alexei A. Abrikosov, and Anthony Leggett. The Secretary of the Department of Energy, Spencer Abraham, said of the Nobel Award, "Through their efforts, tremendous strides are being made in understanding these processes, leading to the development of new superconducting materials and technologies that have great promise to benefit the entire world."

The silver industry has had a keen interest in superconductivity since silver is a key component of superconductive wire, which operates with no electrical resistance at practical operating temperatures and provides better performance at significantly reduced weight and size to cables, motors, generators and transformers.

About 16 years ago, researchers achieved a breakthrough when several unusual oxides were combined and proved to be superconductive at relatively low temperatures. However, they were brittle and unworkable. That was the case until a solution was developed at the AT&T Bell Laboratories, which incorporated silver into the mix to combat the earlier frustrations.

Placing these oxides into practical use generated worldwide research, and already over 700 patents have been issued. For example, the patents held by the American Superconductor Corporation (AMC), Westborough, MA ( have resulted in practical silver-jacketed superconducting oxide wires that carry more than 140 times the electric load of copper wire with less than 1 percent of the weight.

With over a decade of development behind it, AMC recently shipped 18 miles of silver- jacketed, high-temperature superconductor (HTS) wire to China for new electric-power projects. According to Greg Yurek, chief executive officer of American Superconductor, "We have sold samples of our wire into China and have been working with a number of companies and government agencies to meet this dynamic new Chinese industry. We believe this initial order represents just the beginning of what is ultimately enormous growth potential for all our products in China." Yurek added, "In every case we know about, a noble metal, primarily silver, is put on top of high-temperature superconducting wires."

The Silver Institute has previously reported that this wire takes about 1,000 ounces of silver per mile.

Comment: Found this article, but no direct link. Will post when find.

Cavan ManExcellent MUST Read Interviewe with James Grant#11148711/8/03; 09:58:47

Grant self deprecates about the continued postponement of his forecast for the Fed to finally overplay its hand, but he has a point that we are currently witnessing one of the great monetary dramas of all time and he makes a very persuasive case for being long precious metals.

What's more, he likens the present infrastructure for selling metal securities to the equity market in 1947. Few people owned stocks, now few don't. Similarly, an elaborate infrastructure and complex instruments developed to sell gold rather than to buy it – he's betting on a spectacular turnaround on that front.

Grant is especially bullish on silver because it has more favourable supply-demand characteristics.

DruidA Hypothetical Look at Commodity Money for the Dollar Block #11148811/8/03; 10:11:34

"I'd take nature's way of a stable free gold wealth market all days of the week because anything else is slavery."

Druid: HM great post, this pretty much sums it for me. The paperchangers can come up with any combination, permutation, hybrid, partial differential or any other abomination they can conjure up. However, when the excess "dollar reserves" of the world start bidding for gold to set it "free" then even the most ignoramus among us will be able to discern "real" from "fiction".

21mabryDesoto#11148911/8/03; 10:13:05

Glox, I read that book its a good read.Anyone who can figure out how to allow the 3rd world to use that capital will be doing a great service to mankind.It will improve the lot of the people of these countries.Those boots in the movie prove once again that things are valuable paper wont keep your feet dry.That movie showed death but not gory blood and guts death,yet it was more powerful than many death cult movies made today.I should read the book they are always better than the movie although it is a powerful motion picture.21
21mabry(No Subject)#11149011/8/03; 10:24:15

Unfortunatley mans greatest accomplishment during the 20th century was finding new and more destructive ways to kill large numbers of people and other species.If only we put half as much effort into peaceful pursuits.I read recently that if the world would have stayed on a gold standard ww1 would have been over in 6 months because of the drain of the gold supply to pay for the war.Goverments ability to print fiat allows it to expand warfare to sizes undreamed of in past centuries.21
SmeagolGold and Silver Production#11149111/8/03; 11:16:58

We found this out in the Wilds - charts of Precious production by different lands and how much has been mined through history - interessting? Now we will go see if we can find a link to where It's all going, or gone.


White RoseSource on Movements of American Aircraft#11149211/8/03; 12:23:49

Several days ago, I say an item on and on the Pravda site about the movement of about 280 US aircraft (bombers and AWACS) going from the West Coast of US to Europe/Middle East. Both articles said these aircraft were spotted landing in Scotland, presumably after flying over the North Pole.

My guess is that we feel that certain areas are secure enough (airfields in desert of Iraq or Jordan or Israel) that we can move aircraft to our new "land based aircraft carrier" i.e. Iraq. Thus we are prepared to make threats to Syria and/or Iran.

Or course, these sources may be total mis-information. My suspicion is that the report is true, and Isreal and Russia both had their own reasons to make a brief mention to alert US intelligence that they knew, but not a big public splash to alert the American people.

Of course, both items have been removed from their web sites. If anyone if clever with bringing up caches from Google searches, we may get the original wording. Both reports mentioned Scotland, and the Pravda report mentioned 288 aircraft if that helps with the searches.

We live in an interesting world

steadyfog#11149311/8/03; 12:53:08

fog seems to be rather thick today. tryn to obsuring the golden ball we keep our eye on!
GoldendomeResponse to Sir Heavy Metals Commodity Money.#11149411/8/03; 13:15:30

Sir Heavy: Your Post # 111475 Title below:

A Hypothetical Look at Commodity Money for the Dollar Block

U.N.I.T. - Unit of National and International Trade; for lack of a better word.


Reading the method and workings of this system; it seems to start in the middle, with the unit already established....and in this matter the devil would only -Only -begin with the details of first establishing the "basket" of commodities included, and the ratio of the commodities included, And their respective valuations within the basket, (getting complicated already?). Can we imagine the bickering and arm twisting involved as countries involved would maneuver for favorable inclusion of their favorite commodities?

Ok, moving on, let's now assume, that a group of nations gets this commodity unit of exchange established. Are there going to be accounted for store houses for all of these commodities that are backing this unit?... or would we just again, trust everyone's accounting? Seems a little hard to believe this would be possible, but I quote again from your article, " Using a basket approach would smooth out any bumps due to weather, distribution hic ups, spoilage, etc. [Really? I doubt it.] As usual the average amount of commodities backing the Unit could be again lent out fractionally.... Possibly an average or fractional existing amount of each commodity found in the world markets at any given time would represent the Unit."

The matter of arbitrage, (variances in valuations in differing markets) would be a constant threat to the system, as the constant fluctuations in the values of the individual commodities within the basket of goods would drive some articles out of the basket, as they could be traded for a higher value on the open market, than for the value given them in the basket of comparative goods, and Vise/versa, I should add.

The system would also need frequent honing, due to the natural increases or decreases in market valuations of commodities based upon demand, natural supply, and disasters.

In the latter half of your article, you raise other important questions regarding the workability of a commodity system, and as I read on, I believe you also come to the conclusion, that this system would be very suspect and difficult to manage, due to the political, military, and vested interests of the powers that are in the world. The article comes to the conclusion, I believe, that this commodity system would be more unworkable than a system of monometallism,(Gold), I agree.

Gdomes, Closing comment: The 18th and 19th centuries showed that bimetallism, (Gold and silver in ratio, [a basket with only two commodities]) was workable for years, with periodic adjustments. However, the history shows that even using only those two metals created strain and arbitrage within the system when: 1) the ratio was set incorrectly, 2) the natural supply changes in the two metals (read discoveries) led to a market adjustment in the ratio outside the mint ratio. 3) The political preferences changed toward monometallism (gold) for large currency flows and transactions, leaving to Silver only the demands for small denomination coinage aspects of the market, And (and a big and) the free coinage of silver was discontinued. Could bimetallism work again? Probably, but a political concensus world wide would have to agree to make it workable. Right now, it's out of the question.

Enjoyed reading your post, ------Gdome.

21mabryChina#11149511/8/03; 13:26:21

While studying for modern chinese history class I was reading our text the rise of modern china.Right now we have been stuying pre ww2 years and the struggle between the nationalist and the communist.In the concluding remarks of this chapter the author addresses the strenght and weakness of the nationalist goverment.The author states one of the strengths of the nationalist was taking china off the silver standard in 1933 and introducing fiat.He backs his thoughts with statment because of rising world silver prices silver was leaving china at a great rate and reducing the goverments supply of this metal.Introduction of fiat in the authors view increased industrialisation and modernization.21
Gandalf the WhiteNICE FIND, Sir Smeagol !! <;-)#11149611/8/03; 14:15:28

Smeagol (11/8/03; 11:16:58MT - msg#: 111491)
Gold and Silver Production
We found this out in the Wilds - charts of Precious production by different lands and how much has been mined through history - interessting?
You are a GREAT SCOUT Sir Smeagol !!
Come home and have a fish.

Goldendome21 Mabry-- Silver driven from China.#11149711/8/03; 14:20:15

Interesting, Do you know the world market value of silver in '33 as compared to the monetary unit value in China that, I presume, was driving it out of circulation?

The U.s. silver policy could ruin anything at that time; the silver price varied from about 48 cents in 1915 to $1.18 by 1917 alone.

There's the Pittman act of 1918 that calls for the sale of Silver To Great Britain for India, and probably much more important: the Thomas amendment and the Silver Purchase act of 1934. By the end of 1933 Silver was priced at about 44 cents/oz.; seventy five % above depression lows. The silver purchase act called for treasury dept. to begin purchase of newly mined silver at 64 cents/oz. The secretary was directed to purchase silver until the market price rose to the traditional level of $1.29/ oz. The treasury bought up 3.2 billion ounces of silver, nearly half of that total in a four year perion between 1934-37. (Source for this information: The Coming Currency Collapse, Jerome Smith; 1981.)

This probably sunk, China's silver standard. (Their coins must have become more valuable for bullion trade, than in monetary transactions, much like our pre-'65 silver coins.) By the way, I believe the last country to have a Silver standard. Though I may be wrong.


21mabryGDOME#11149811/8/03; 14:29:49

It took .715 tiels or yuan to buy 1 silver chinese dollar at the time.The author does not offer conversion into any western currency.Maybe someone on the forum can offer us more info.21
GoldiloxFIT tax breaks for repatriation of currency#11149911/8/03; 14:55:31

Puplava and company seemed less short-term bullish on PMs in today's broadcast. They recommend taking profits in paper gold and watching for a drop to accumulate physical.

FIT tax breaks for multinationals who buy $$:


"Coverage of the tax measure focuses on a provision to allow U.S. multinationals a one-year window to repatriate profits from abroad at a reduced tax rate of 5.25%, instead of the current 35% rate. The bill would also eliminate a tax exemption for Americans working overseas."

Full story

If you did not get the implication of that message, let me elaborate on it. First, by allowing US multinationals to repatriate their earrings back to the US at a rate of 5.25% is tantamount to a 29% across the board cut in taxes, which will more than push them to come to the US. This 29% break more than makes up for the current devaluation in the dollar. Who would not take such an offer? It's basically free money.

Now here is where the situation gets sticky. In order to repatriate that money, the multinationals have to change from whatever currency they are currently holding to the US dollar. Effectively, they will be buying the US dollar and dumping their local currency.

This will have the effect of suddenly propping up and giving the US dollar strength, and as the dollars starts to gain, Gold will definitely be its victim. So it's highly likely that Gold's upward trajectory will be momentarily halted and that the day of reckoning will be postponed till after 2004.

Not only will the multinationals benefit from the 29% break, but they will also benefit as the US dollar starts to gain strength. Notice how this provision is only effective for one year, which coincides perfectly with the coming elections. The companies who take advantage of this offer early will be able to make another 10-15% gains as the currency appreciates, so in total they stand to gain upwards of 39%.

Based on this information, I have to recommend that individuals who have two gold portfolios (trading and long term) take precautionary measures and take profits from their trading portfolios as Gold is going to run into some potentially very strong resistance soon. We, at the Tactical Investor, have already advised our subscribers to take profits and will be sitting and watching this situation closely.

21mabryGdome#11150011/08/03; 15:25:14

Gdome, some info to establish silvers worth.In 1937 to help china in its war effort against japan.The u.s. purchased 350 million ounces of chinese silver for 252 million u.s.d.
GoldendomeRecent observations on U.S. economic growth#11150111/08/03; 15:58:18

I do hope that our host will not object to a couple of pieces from the Daily Reckoning. One, passage's from Eric Fry's weekend comments. The other, a full text letter of Dr. Kurt Richebacher's economic analysis of the U.s.'s supposed current expansion.-------Gdome
Eric Fry,
The Daily Reckoning

"Just yesterday, the Federal Reserve reported that consumer credit
in the U.S. rose $15.2 billion, or at a 9.7 percent annual pace,
in September. That's the biggest jump in consumer credit since
January. But how trustworthy is 7% GDP growth when national
indebtedness is soaring?...It's a strange sort of prosperity that
impoverishes those who are becoming "wealthier."

"Our age in finance is an age of heresy," says Jim Grant, editor
of Grant's Interest Rate Observer. "Budgets go unbalanced,
currencies go un-collateralized, current-account deficits go
uncorrected, securities go unanalyzed and bubbles go un-popped
(until too late)...We see the S&P 500 or the dollar...and we
imagine a kind of anvil suspended by dental floss."


by Kurt Richebächer

"The deficit country is absorbing more, taking consumption and investment together, than its own production; in this sense, it is drawing upon savings made abroad. Whether this is a good bargain or not depends upon the nature of the use to which the funds are put. If they merely permit an excess of consumption over production, the economy is on the road to ruin. If they permit an excess of investment over home savings, the result depends on the nature of the investment."

- Joan Robinson, "Reconsideration of the Theory of Free Trade," Collected Economic Papers, Volume IV, 1973

America's economic recovery and its likely strength have been and remain the central preoccupation in economics around the world.

In the consensus view, the U.S. economy will record in this year's second half its strongest pace of growth since the late 1990s. According to a monthly survey of 53 economic forecasters conducted by the Wall Street Journal Online, its seasonally adjusted annual growth rate during the current quarter will be 4.7% and 4% in the fourth quarter.

While a few economists have been warning that this recovery's actual pace may disappoint, our own view is that the U.S. economy's higher growth rate in the second quarter was totally deceptive. Focusing strictly on the hard economic data, like employment, personal income, production, business fixed investment and profits, we completely fail to see any recovery at all in the United States.

Ever since 2001, the United States has been running monetary and fiscal stimulus of unprecedented largess. In July, the government's tax cut and rebate checks turned an income gain of $19 billion into a $120 billion gain in disposable income.

In the bullish consensus view, the medicine is finally working. Above all the upward revision of the second- quarter real GDP growth rate from 2.4% to 3.1%, following 1.4% each in the two prior quarters, has caused virtual euphoria.

Knowing these are annualized growth rates is the first reason why we are still unable to see a sustained, let alone a self-sustaining, economic recovery in the United States. When American economists speak of 4% growth in the coming quarters, they really mean 1%, and that is a far cry from what used to rank as a cyclical recovery. Growth rates of postwar recoveries in the United States averaged 5.4% over the first two years after recession - and that needed very little monetary and fiscal stimulus, as against less than 3% growth currently.

The second reason for our disbelief is that U.S. GDP has been heavily bolstered by government spending. In the fourth quarter of 2002, it accounted for 24.5% of nominal GDP growth, in the first quarter of 2003 for 40.7% and in the second quarter for 38.2%.

A third reason is that the recovery completely fails to show in the current-dollar data. In these dollars in which all economic activity takes place, GDP grew 0.99%, after 0.94% in the first quarter, an acceleration hardly worth mentioning. But measured in chained dollars, it more than doubled from 0.35% to 0.775%. Taking the big boost from government spending into account, it was more slowdown than acceleration.

The fourth and most important negative point is that the trumpeted recovery in business fixed investment, in particular in high tech, is just another statistical mirage. In the second quarter of 2003, overall business fixed investment in structures, equipment and software, measured in current dollars, amounted to $1,119.9 billion, slightly down in comparison with $1,126.8 billion in the first quarter of 2002.

Measured in real terms, chained dollars, it was up $64 billion, or 0.5%.

I hardly need remind you that a true economic recovery essentially must come from a balanced rise in consumer spending and business investment spending. But what really happened to the two during the first half of 2003, being generally hailed as the start of the U.S. economy's final recovery?

Let us look at the changes in aggregate GDP. Measured in current dollars, it grew by $99.6 billion in the first quarter and by $105.5 billion in the second quarter, hardly an acceleration.

Looking at the demand components, growth of consumer spending, its biggest component, slowed between the two quarters from $87.1 billion to $83.1 billion. Nonresidential fixed investment dipped in the first quarter, but recovered in the second quarter to its earlier level. From first to second quarter, the growth of government spending slowed from $40.7 billion to $33.6 billion, and that of residential investment from $21 billion to $6 billion. Not one single GDP component rose. The sharply rising trade deficit subtracted $11.1 billion from GDP growth in the first quarter and $23.8 billion in the second.

But this dismal picture, measured in current dollars, radically changed for the better after the statisticians had treated the numbers with their price indexes. GDP growth, measured in chained dollars, surged from $33.8 billion to $73.5 billion. Growth in consumer spending, down in current dollars, went steeply up from $33 billion to $62.4 billion, and growth in government spending even shot up from $1.7 billion to $31.7 billion.

Yet by far the single biggest contributor to this sudden surge in real GDP growth from the first to second quarter came from the calculation of the price deflator for computers. Measured in current dollars, this investment inched up by $0.8 billion in the first quarter and by $6.3 billion in the second quarter, but the hedonic deflator boosted the two numbers in real terms to $15.3 billion and $38.4 billion. Hedonic pricing of computers in the first quarter accounted for 43% of real GDP growth and for 44% in the second.

The bullish consensus, flatly disregarding the overwhelming hedonic component, immediately hailed the sharp rise in computer investment as the rapid comeback of high-tech investment. Wall Street celebrated with the NASDAQ up 56% since March.

In its absence, nonresidential investment remained dead in the water across the board.

Warm regards,

Kurt Richebächer,
for The Daily Reckoning

cockerel1Just in!#11150211/08/03; 16:56:33,1280,-3365261,00.html

Three Explosions Strike Saudi Arabia

Saturday November 8, 2003 10:01 PM


Associated Press Writer

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) - Three explosions rocked the Saudi capital Riyadh around midnight Saturday, and smoke could be seen rising from the area of the blast, diplomats said.

The diplomats said there was one big explosion at about midnight, followed by two smaller ones 15 seconds apart. Police cars raced toward the direction of the blasts, which appeared to have happened in the western part of the city.

An American Embassy spokeswoman confirmed the explosion, but said it was not in the diplomatic quarter. The extent of the damage was not immediately clear, and it wasn't known if there were any casualties.

Almost all the foreign embassies in Riyadh - including the U.S. Embassy - and most diplomats' homes are inside the quarter, an isolated neighborhood whose entrances are guarded.

But there are several residential compounds housing Western business people relatively near to the diplomatic quarter on the city's west side.

A western diplomat said he got a call from a friend who reported seeing smoke rising from a building on the other side of the diplomatic quarter near an area where the palaces of the royal family's senior princes are located.

The Al-Arabiya television network said an explosion shook a building in west Riyadh, but it did not give a source for its information or provide footage.

American diplomatic missions in Saudi Arabia were closed Saturday for an undetermined period amid warnings that a terror attack could be imminent in the tense Gulf kingdom.

Comment: Sooner or later, this situation needs to get resolved. The world needs to know just where the Saudis stand in the big scheme of things. Methinks the U.S. cannot afford for the real truth to come out.

DruidArmed men take hostages at Moscow Soros institute#11150311/08/03; 18:32:50

Around 40 armed men have stormed the Moscow offices of the Open Society institute of US billionaire George Soros, taking five people hostage, according to Interfax news agency, but there was no apparent political motive.

"Armed men in military clothing came into the building of the institute at 10:30 pm (local time)," a spokeswoman for the institute told the Russian agency.

"They chased out all the employees except for five who they are still holding," Irina Racheeva said.

The lawyer for the foundation, Pavel Kuzmin, stressed the men were known to the institute.

"We know these people... we are (currently) in court against them regarding the ownership of this building," he said.

"There are currently around 40 people wearing camouflage in the building."

The Soros Foundation and the Open Society institute are heavily involved in promoting civil society and the development of democratic ideas, chiefly in formerly communist east European countries.

Druid: We are certainly in unsettled times. Anyone catch the Soros write up in the latest issue of Fortune? He is "Mad as Hell".

Dollar Bill*>*#11150411/08/03; 21:10:06

Sir Druid, 40 people? What genius leader did they follow into that prison? We really have to pick our teachers and leaders carefully in life. At least the ones that we actively follow. Those 40 people are doomed.
The russians will never let them escape.
I guess kidnapping didnt occur to them.
Or staying home and reading a book.

DruidDollar Bill (11/08/03; 21:10:06MT - msg#: 111504)#11150511/08/03; 22:56:21

"We really have to pick our teachers and leaders carefully in life. At least the ones that we actively follow."

Druid: Sir Dollar Bill discussing these two sentences could consume a working career. You're absolutely right when it comes to choosing your teachers and leaders but you must always stay vigilant and question what it is you're being taught. This entails that you continuously keep learning yourself(something most people are loathed to do). By in large, people today are students of "form" and very little if any "substance". We have given up a lot of land lately.

"The known is finite, the unknown infinite; intellectually we stand on an islet in the midst of an illimitable ocean of inexplicability. Our business in every generation is to reclaim a little more land."

T.H. Huxley, 1887

GoldiloxChile's Peso Has Biggest Gain Since March: Latin Currencies #11150611/08/03; 23:07:31

Latin American currencies are all experiencing record gains against the GreenSpanBack, according to Bloomberg.

Mexican Peso is about 11:1 and pushing down toward 10:1. Chile's record pace is related to the resurgence of Cu, which comprises about 35% of their exports. Even the real is rising, after settling Brazil's short-term debt problems.

see link for article-


DruidThe Dollar Crisis: An interview with Richard Duncan#11150711/08/03; 23:24:45


Richard Duncan is author of a new book called "The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures." In it, he argues that the Japanese bubble, the Asian Crisis and the U.S. bubble are related. In Mr. Duncan's view, problems have been building since the U.S. ditched the Bretton Woods system for what turned out to be a "dollar standard." As Richard will explain, the U.S. has benefited from the dollar standard because the U.S. is allowed to play by different rules. It appears, however, that we've overplayed our hand. But before we find out why Mr. Duncan thinks that a "dollar crisis" is inevitable, let's learn how we got here.

Druid: Great interview and book.

geGreenspan says that#11150811/09/03; 01:42:51

"In about 2008, the proportion of the working-age population that will retire is projected to begin escalating. Almost surely, the social security and Medicare benefits that are promised under current law to future retirees cannot be financed with existing tax rates."
ToolieDefections from the dollar bloc?#11150911/09/03; 02:10:23

Snips: SAO PAULO, Brazil — U.S. Trade Representative Robert B. Zoellick once told Brazilian officials that if they were unhappy trading with the United States, their other option was to trade with Antarctica.
Under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil's foreign policy has followed Mr. Zoellick's advice. Though it is not actually trading with Antarctica, it has decidedly turned east for economic growth and political partnerships instead of looking toward its traditional partner in the north………
…"…. Brazil is one of the protagonists in a new scenario being laid out that can define the century. It could be because of the inequalities we have accumulated throughout our history. It could be because of a surefire democratic gamble being made by a pluralist, multiethnic, multireligious society. We will not disappoint."
…..A key example of Brazil's foreign-policy initiatives is the accord among Brazil, India and South Africa signed in June. It focuses on scientific and technological cooperation, but one of its chief strategies is to act as a unified opposition voice inside the World Trade Organization. The group, informally called the G3, was instrumental in organizing resistance to U.S. and European Union policies at the September WTO meeting in Cancun, Mexico, which ended in stalemate. "Their goal is to lead a reformist development model and challenge the cocktail of neoliberal measures run by Washington and the International Monetary Fund," …….During his first visit to Brazil in June, Indian Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha defined the group as a multilateral effort to promote the social and economic interests of countries in the Southern Hemisphere. "We have thought enough about South-South cooperation and we have reached this stage now where we want to give it a concrete shape," he told reporters this year……"The G3 exists to fill a foreign-policy void," said Mr. Seitenfus. Brazil "is acting out its frustrations on the world stage, paying specific attention to the disparities between the rich and poor nations. China will likely become part of the group soon," he added
A Chinese delegation was in Brazil Aug. 18-20 and again in mid-September to discuss trade with Mercosur, a trade bloc comprising Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. Counting U.S. multinationals operating in the region, Brazil and Argentina make up nearly 65 percent of South America's gross domestic product. "The Brazilian government has a lot of cards up their sleeves," said Reginaldo Nasser, an international-relations expert and university professor in Sao Paulo. There is a general consensus here outside the government that besides lobbying for a more humanist world order, Brazil is also looking for alternatives in case the U.S.-proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas doesn't go its way. Brazil — the world's largest beef, coffee, sugar cane and orange juice exporter — has tried unsuccessfully to get Washington to lower or eliminate trade barriers to Brazilian food products in past FTAA-development negotiations. The 32 nations working on the project are to meet in Miami Nov. 16-21.
….."For matters of economic growth, it is hard to imagine the U.S. ever being replaced by China or the G3," said Ricardo Sennes, executive director of Prospectiva, an international-trade consultant in Sao Paulo.
Argentina is Brazil's most steadfast ally in the region and can be expected to mirror Brasilia's worldview, according to top-level Argentine officials working in Brasilia. "We speak the same [political and economic] language. Many people in the world don't like to see Brazil and Argentine united. That's exactly why this union between us makes us even stronger," Argentine Ambassador Juan Pablo Lohle told the mainstream newsweekly Istoe. Another Argentine diplomat, Rafael Bielsa, was quoted by a Brazilian weekly as saying his country's position on the FTAA is "very similar to Brazil's."
"|f the U.S. hopes that our countries will be subservient, they're sadly mistaken," he said.
"Brazil is maneuvering itself well on the international stage and especially with other developing countries to counter U.S. and EU hegemony," said Vicki Gass, economics adviser at the Washington Office on Latin America, a U.S. foreign-policy watchdog.
"Washington has got to be worried by the threat of Brazil, and has certainly made it the scapegoat for failed trade talks," she added.

Comments: A united cartel of countries with vast natural resources and vast human resources appear to be seeking independence from the multinational corporations and their legal framework (IMF/WTO). If they are even partially successful, this is yet more trouble for those that seek to expand the use of dollars in trade and therefore, their use as a reserve currency.

DummyANICommodities are waking up from 8-months sleeps.#11151011/09/03; 04:05:58$crb,PRPBDAN[PA][DA][F!3!1.0!]&pref=G

Since Feb. 24,2003, CRB-index is in a consolidation phase. But last Friday( Nov.07,2003), CRB is breaking out the previous resistance(250 point level).
In the last-February rally, the first runner is a crude oil, the second runner is gold( Precious Metals). But the grains have no contributions.
In the second CRB-rally (I think this rally continues until Feb., 2004), the first runner is a crude oil( A temporal top will be $34 per barrel, or $37 per barrel, but finally over $40 per barrel).
The second runner will be gold ( A temporal top will be $428 per ounce, or $470 per ounce, but finally over $530 per ounce).
The third runner will be grains. Soybean and corn are falling in a sleep after a first bull-rally. But the grains will be soared up strongly in a president-election year.
Consequently, CRB will be up nearly at 290 level within a few months, and finally reached over 330 level by a war-economy and China-auto demands.
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Belgian@ D-ANI / Toolie#11151111/09/03; 06:05:23

I am not so sure about your "sell a yen" !? What if Japanese exports, amalgamate with the greater China and decouple from the dollar-protection (dictate) ?
Toolie's posting indicates that the different global economic blocks are re-aligning on a currency level field.
I want to trade with "good" and "equal" neighbours instead of with my dominating bigger dollar-brother !?

Euroland's expansion is build on the concept of the euro- currency level field. East blockers are going to work for and with the euro instead of being left on their own with a competitive local currency that needs to depreciate in function of its euro-partners !

Debt-driven, political economies, can remain functional, for some time, when all agree on creating the same level of debts ! But that is not the case anymore. Some are making faster growing, bad debts due to their privileged systemic dollar-reserve-system. Slowly but surely, the planet is discretely shuffling away from the "DEBT DOLLAR RESERVE" as the planet's trading numeraire AND reserve asset ! The road to Freegold in a Free Physical Gold Market, step by step... by step.

Euroland is the main block that doesn't need dollar-reserves or/and DOLLAR NUMERAIRE anymore. The euro wishes to trade with euro-partners, around a "STABLE" euro currency. Reason for getting Russia in WTO, asap.
India, South Afrika and Brasil are in some way imitating this euro-unification-concept in an horizontal way.

This leads to Gold as the most objective tangible to express one's Wealth Reserve Asset strength or weakness.
Unecumbered ownership of universal wealth without a nationality. Freely tradeable ... owneable ... valueable.
No priviledges anymore for nobody ! Yep, Utopia !?

heavy mettleSir Goldendome & Sir Druid: #11151211/09/03; 06:16:34

Thanks for your comments. I've been stumbling along the trail looking past bushes and trees thinking I may have seen a mountain ahead of me. Alas, maybe just a molehill.

Recently there were meetings regarding commodity money as a possible answer to the world's money system. May have been a few months back, I don't remember. Could this be the direction they are looking? Who knows for sure but whatever the outlet for these dollar debt units may be, it is going to receive enormous attention of the re-valuing kind.

In the early 70's my consciousness consisted of my friends, neighborhood and towns close by. I was too young to understand much beyond that. I did however remember other kids speaking about gold and how the dollar was worth nothing now. That was really the parents speaking through the kids but it worked. The seed was planted, and I have been eyeing gold ever since.

Who would have thought in 1979-80 that the fiat dollar would be around much longer let alone become the world's reserve currency? Laughable. A new scheme was hatched and here we are today suffocating in dollar debt. I myself don't see a basket approach of commodity money working. However, stranger things have happened that no one could have foreseen years before.

Again thanks for your comments and good weekend to all.

DummyANI@Belgian (11/09/03; 06:05:23MT - msg#: 111511)#11151311/09/03; 07:21:54

Hi, Belgian , I have a very different view about Yens futures.
I think Japan is like a former Soviet-unions.
Japan has a huge paper dollars, but only paper, not physical gold as you know.
Japanese production sectors have a competitiveness, but Japanese financial sectors are incredibly foolish. So that the above huge paper dollars will be lost very rapidly in a crisis.
1) When WTC towers were exploded in Sep. 11 2001, do you know what happened in the financial world ?
The answer is that Japanese two insurance companies were fallen into bankruptcies through thier foolish reinsurance contracts.
2) Argentine declared default in this year. If 20-years ago, City-bank( in USA) will be bankrupted.. But during these twenty-years, they transferred bad-loans from America to Japan. So more than half default-assets were held by Japanese financial sectors.
3) I believe that Japanese financial sectors will be fallen into unknown very deep-troubles in 2004. This is indicated by an astronomical-mundane chart of 2004-Japan. The second house predicts that Yen will be terribly crushed like as a Ruble.
To gain is one thing, to hold is another.
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

geGandalf's Gold#11151411/09/03; 07:47:26

"Wizard's gold entered circulation today as Sir Ian McKellen officially launched the Royal Mint's range of commemorative Lord of the Rings coins. Featuring a range of characters and imagery from the trilogy, the coins will be legal tender in New Zealand, home of the films, and is yet another example of how Jackson's adaptation has become a part of the country's national identity."
DummyANI@Belgian (11/09/03; 06:05:23MT - msg#: 111511)#11151511/09/03; 07:48:37

4) Do you know who is Governor Fukui, Bank of Japan ?
Governor Fukui is the man who made the notorious Japanese land-bubbles in 1980s.
He is a puppet of Wall-Street, and his mission is to destroy Japanese economy.
He is doing very well in his mission. I believe that Yen will be destroyed silently, but very steady.

DummyANI@Belgian (11/09/03; 06:05:23MT - msg#: 111511)#11151611/09/03; 09:16:15

5) Rumors said that money from USA were poured into Tokyo stock exchanges. According to Japanese Department of Treasuries data, the inflow of capital for Tokyo Stock Exchanges from Oct. 2002 to May 2003 were total 133 billion dollars.

Their average buying costs of TSE was 8,000 point (Nikkei225 index), and its Yen-rate was 122 Yen per dollars(from Oct. 2002 to May 2003).

If these stocks were sold at the pre-determined level, their average selling costs of TSE was 11,500 point. and 23.3 trillion Yen was gained. This 23.3 trillion Yen was waiting for a chance to exchange. If G-7 Dubai meeting was not opened, and Yen-rate was 122 Yen per dollars, Wall Streets money were exchanged into 191 billion dollars, net 58 billion dollars per year were transferred from Japan to USA.

Recently, the Yen-rate was 109 Yen per dollar, and if 23.3 trillion Yen was exchanged at this level, Wall Streets gained 214 billion dollars, net gain were 81 billion dollars per year. G-7 meeting was contributing to 23 billion dollars bonus to Wall Streets

I think Nikkei is only manipulated by US-Jp sitting administrations for their re-election purposes.

And Japanese assets are robbed silently by Bank of Japan from Japan to USA.

These are main reasons why I claim repeatedly "sell a Yen".

Melting PotBubble Troubles#11151711/09/03; 09:24:58

Federal Reserve Corp dollar is world reserve currency (WRC) that is globally authorized via treaty agreements to conduct all oil and gold transactions in dollars. Oil is priced in gold and transactions are settled in dollars.

Lets say for instance price of oil (POO) is $25 per bbl. and global volume is 10 mm per day. The Fed Reserve would be required to produce an adequate amount of dollars to conduct the smooth transaction of global oil trades.

Consider what occurs when gold suppression scheme is employed. POO in dollars would decline from $25 bbl to $12 bbl. The result would be a flood of surplus dollars and dollar fiat derivatives (Yen, Francs, etc.) that would normally be employed and deployed in the trade and transactions of oil...correct?

When POO declines in such a manner (above) there would be 50% excess surplus fiat currency sloshing around in the market looking for a parking place. The perfect parking place selected would require the availablity of instant liquidity in case the POO began to rise and should also provide a capital gain while parked...correct?

The stock and bond markets would serve these needs. They would provide a fiat parking place that offers instant access to liquidity and also provide a return on investment.

If the above is correct, then the movement of fiat capital from oil market into stock and bond markets would create a bubble. Is there evidence of this occuring? You be the judge:

Note the POO began declining around 1996 reaching a nadir low of $11 bbl 3rd quarter 1999. Then POO begins to rise. A rising POO would require movement of fiat capital from stock and bond markets back into oil market to complete smooth transactions. If this is correct, the stock and possibly the bond markets would exhibit growth then a shock from the removal of this capital...correct?

Is there evidence to back this? Yes! Note that the markets began collapse when POO began accelerating much higher 1999/2000...

IOW evidence exists that we may logically attribute the major factor of the 2000 stock collapse to a rising POO by and through the repatriation of fiat from paper markets back into oil markets.

If you are central bank regimes faced with Kondratieff deflationary winter, how would you support the paper markets and fiat schemes??? Hello gold suppression? The scheme to "save the paperized planet" would require oil to be mainly settled in "gold as a currency." When the percentage of gold is increased for the settlement of oil, the POO would decrease in paper terms. For "ABRBITRARY" example, if oil is settled 1 gram of gold and $25 fiat...then settlment with 2 grams gold would price POO in terms of fiat at $12 bbl...

Washington Agreement and gold suppression was mere short term fix to long term problem...the actual problem being the west uses to much oil and cannot pay fair value to oil producers...hence the next step would require confiscation and seizure of oil fields which is what is now taking place in Iraq, etc.

Oil is world currency priced in gold...the central banks are most aware that the common people have been brainwashed in toto and do not understand the concept of value. Their values are arbitrary, as long as DOW is near 10,000, SnP 1000+ and Naz is growing the people are content never realizing the "real" value of their nest eggs are actually declining by the destructive forces of inflation. They never realize that the value of the goods have not risen or changed, but the net value of dollars purchasing power has changed and gone down...

Thus the central banks have embarked on inflating the money supply and the "real" indice value up to the perceived "people" value of contentness to retain political and monetary control. If the indices were to decline to true value and economic conditions, there would be an uproar and possible financial or social revolt. Therefore the central banks have created a temporary inflated illusion attempting to mask and cover the K winter...

This is temporary measure, POO, gold, milk, eggs, meat, medical care, education, etc. are rapidly rising due to the expanded inflation produced. These measures have only purchased additional precious time...

The games have begun...expect the unexpected, who cares where gold is priced in dollars...up or down from current the end real value will win the day as the illusion is discovered by the common man.

It was once written a DJIA of 30,000. I believe it based upon recent M3 growth! What wasn't written was a Dow 30,000 equals Gasoline $7.50 gal, Milk $10.00 gal., Bread $8.50 loaf, average automobile $80,000, average home $550,000 while average earnings remain $25 per hour or less...

The only tool central banks really possess is debt/monetary creation, thats it, nada...the sky is falling, create more fiat, the stock markets are collapsing, create more fiat, we are losing a war, create more fiat, bonds are tanking, create more fiat, election is coming, create more fiat, etc. Central Banks like all human institutions and bureacracies become self-serving with survival insticts and will do whatever is necessary to remain in authority and control. This is where they become very dangerous, when they realize their imminent destruction they care not whom or what is destroyed by their actions, they will perpetrate any scheme at any cost to insure their survival one more day.

Greenspan was truthfull when he said there was a new pardigm...he just convieniently forgot to elaborate on the consequences of the major raid upon the wealth and living standards of the common folk.

JMO, presented for educational purposes only blah, blah, blah...

misetichFinancial World's Scandals Keep Spreading #11151811/09/03; 09:53:38


First it was the executives and accountants, cooking the books. Then came the investment bankers and stock analysts, doling out bad advice. Now mutual fund managers have been added to the community of highly paid professionals who were supposed to look out for the financial interests of investors but decided to put their own interests first.

Greedy, unethical individuals are making a sham of the financial system with yet to be accounted for consequences as the moral corruption is endless

American revolution part deux? Don't scoff at it - wait until scammed retirees find out their investment portfolio decimated valuations isn't coming back and taxes for the new generation are going to skyrocket through the roof

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

DruidDummyANI (11/09/03; 07:21:54MT - msg#: 111513)#11151911/09/03; 09:58:25

"Japanese production sectors have a competitiveness, but Japanese financial sectors are incredibly foolish."

Druid: DummyANI, American production and manufacturing sectors sold down the river to fend for themselves by well planned economic policies forged and implemented by American banking, government and financial sectors. You are not alone my friend.

misetichDespite Jobs Spurt, Executives Remain Cautious#11152011/09/03; 10:15:40


And a new economic study, prepared for the United States Conference of Mayors, concludes that wages are significantly lower in the service sectors that are adding jobs than in the manufacturing industries that have been losing jobs.

According to the study, prepared by the economic consulting firm Global Insight, the biggest job growth over the next two years will be in the areas of administration and support services, health care, travel and tourism.
The average wage in those sectors over the next two years is expected to be $36,000, the study concluded. By contrast, the average wage in manufacturing sectors that lost jobs is $43,000.

"While you see jobs coming back, they are not coming back in the same sectors," said Kwame M. Kilpatrick, the mayor of Detroit. "Cities like Detroit have to struggle to find their niche."
In its regular survey last month of chief executives at large companies, the Business Roundtable found that 71 percent of the executives expect their sales to increase in 2004 but only 12 percent expect to expand their work forces.
But even if the pace of hiring in October gathers additional strength, adding more than 150,000 a month, many economists still contend that unemployment will decline only modestly by the end of next year. For those who are out of work or forced to accept lower-paying jobs, that kind of recovery may not feel like much of a cause for celebration.

Mfg jobs have gone overseas - the much ballood productivity improvements are nonsense - jobs have been exported -

The "new jobs being created" are either temporary in nature or lower paying jobs - Wage increases are lower than "Real unadultared inflation" - Health costs have/are being passed on to individuals from corporations - Discretionary spending is diminishing when factoring inflation

The much awaited economic recovery stands to be post-poned again for the 4th consecutive year

US is not Japan Sir Greenspan says - yet its following the same path

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Belgian@D-ANI#11152111/09/03; 10:30:52

I'm getting your point, but... : What if the japanese will one day make a choice between, being (remaining) the dollar's obedient servant or melting (on a large scale) into
the arch enemy's Chinese economy ??? We still remember 1997 -Hashimoto's dollar-threath with Japanese Gold Accumulation, don't we. Evidence (to me) that the dollar doesn't allow Japan to accumulate (dollar-threathening) Gold. But you can't prevent Japan from producing in China and join the most advantaged competitor in the global arena.

You seem to know the Japanse situation from much closer. Are the japanese realizing what is happening to them, or am I posing the wrong question ? Can you please elaborate a bit more on how you see the possible future outcomes !? TIA.
After all we are talking about Japan being the second (third-?) biggest holder of dollar reserves. Extremely important for Gold in the short and long run.

Goldendome@ge: Gov't unfunded liabilities#11152211/09/03; 10:50:16

Sir ge: No matter how bad that we may observe things now or in the short run, they will be getting worse in the future.

Your reference to Alan Greenspan's concern about future Gov't liabilities always remind us of the potentially needed massive gov't inflation required to fund these gov't programs in the not-now to distant future.

We recall that former Treasury Secretary Paul O'neil had authorized a research paper late last year, that showed unfunded U.S. obligations at $44 trillion dollars! This report may have lead in part to his ouster as not being an obfiscating enough gov't team player. When we all read and are reminded of number overhangs like that, it helps to remind us all of the importance of holding physical gold and/or Silver to protect against the future impending declines of the dollar and the inflation that will be required to fund the gov't give-aways that politicians have continually used to buy the votes of favored vested constiuencies. ----Gdome

misetichTwo Different Worlds (We Live in...) - Bill Gross#11152311/09/03; 11:04:21


For investors, corporations, and financial entities that believe they have a birthright to the high returns typical of the '90s, the amount of duration, leverage, and therefore risk required to attain it is considerable if not egregiously excessive. 42-year duration portfolios can provide returns of 13-20+% in this yield environment but a 50-basis point rise in rates across the curve erases them over a 12-month span and a 250-basis point rise wipes out all of their capital--gonzo, kaput, no money left in the bank. While our economy is undoubtedly not levered to a 42-year duration, it is levered. The banks are levered 10 parts assets to one part capital to begin with. The hedgies the same. Agencies even more. As their asset durations move higher, the more susceptible we become as an economy to going kaput as well should interest rates rise. All the levered players mentioned above are making hay while the short borrowing rate is at 1%. Change that borrowing rate by much, Alan Greenspan, and you risk another bubble popping--this time the U.S. economy.

Interesting Gross believes the highly leveraged US economy, SM requires low IR otherwise its over

Can you imagine if IR are going to be raised to support a falling US $, to encourage foreigner to invest in the US whilst the economy goes nowhere in real terms?

How do you protect your portfolio? Your wealth? by adding a little insurance - PHYSICAL GOLD

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

steadyDEFINING MOMENT!!#11152411/09/03; 11:14:52

uh um aristotle i dun been tinking long & hard bout dat der money /proprty thingy. you know dat trail dat i waz once on but dagnabit to ternation i fell off of. If gold is property and not money den der b lots of people who got it all wrong. what in d world do we do bout dat? how do we esplain ? uh um excuze me sir but the world is upsider down u see gold taint money tis property. Aristotle if i go and done do dat den i be looked at like i b from uranus or sumting. so one ting i think is tru doe is dat der will be a DEFINING MOMENT when doez people on dis here planet will have to DEFINE DER MONEY>. see if de money defines you den u be outta luck. individuals are suppose to define what money is to demselvs.
so ari i c where gold as propery rules. but i cant get it into mu cranium jes yet which one is money when gold buys fiat or when fiat buys gold. at dat instant arent dey both money? in essence property becomes money when you chose it to become money and no sooner! ari am i on d rite trail or am i like a blind coon dog ,,,barking up d wrong tree? oh only if i could see what gold is for me. all dis after i finally understood what it means for gold to be free thanks to belgium and thee. now which tree money or property
gold and silver
honest property???
for honest people!!!!

steadyexpanded.#11152511/09/03; 11:22:52

DummyANI sell a yen buy a gold
steady sell a fiat buy a gold.

got that idea from you !

Liberty HeadMulti-dimensional Bankruptcy#11152611/09/03; 11:24:07

When spending is out of control, bankruptcy comes creepin’ around.
Overspending, in the financial sense, in the moral sense, in the power sense, can all result in types of bankruptcy.
Overspending in large scale with spiraling cycles, the end result is quite catastrophic.
Tyranny, quickly brings escalating terrorism, this in turn leads back to escalating tyranny. Like a short circuit, things quickly overheat.
Some types of bankruptcy bypass the poor house and go directly to the graveyard. Those of us who do survive will know the meaning of heartbreak.
Our Constitutional values have been sold short, our currency has been overspent and now our military might is being overspent. Israel and Russia are in similar escalating spirals to multi-dimensional bankruptcy as well. Is it any wonder why Bush considers them as our allies?
Only fiats can be spun from straw, not gold.
So, get some gold and hang on to it.
Heartbreak Hotel does not take credit cards.

Best Wishes

DruidMelting Pot (11/09/03; 09:24:58MT - msg#: 111517)#11152711/09/03; 11:25:19

"Thus the central banks have embarked on inflating the money supply and the "real" indice value up to the perceived "people" value of contentness to retain political and monetary control. If the indices were to decline to true value and economic conditions, there would be an uproar and possible financial or social revolt. Therefore the central banks have created a temporary inflated illusion attempting to mask and cover the K winter...

This is temporary measure, POO, gold, milk, eggs, meat, medical care, education, etc. are rapidly rising due to the expanded inflation produced. These measures have only purchased additional precious time...

The games have begun...expect the unexpected, who cares where gold is priced in dollars...up or down from current the end real value will win the day as the illusion is discovered by the common man."

Druid: Sir Melting Pot Great!!!! Post. The "illusion" is being shattered into a million pieces from different directions. Be weary of those collectivists' charlatans dressed in capitalist garb being paraded on the parrot box pontificating that higher prices are some how "good" for what ails corporate America. We now are in the midst of ANOTHER dynamic which will further move us along the path toward the abyss. The first dynamic being too much debt to service thereby creating the need to unemploy the employed. Now, throw in higher prices along the demand curve for all goods and services and you further reduce overall demand which cuts into needed revenues for the "profits" (what is this word) that are needed to pay off the first dynamic of debt.

steadyfog.#11152811/09/03; 11:28:34

not so foggy today eh. guess everyone needs a day off now and then ! <:+)/~~~
AristotleSteady, steady.#11152911/09/03; 11:55:46

There was a man who took a fancy to travel this round land,
and found "money" EVERYWHERE was hard to understand.
It was all consequence of unnecessary confusion,
from the forced notion of Gold/Monetary fusion.
TRUTH: "Money" is an ABSTRACTION, while Gold can be GRASPED by even a child's hand!

Less limerick-lyrically, let me put it this way. The best evidence that Gold is NOT money (and money is NOT Gold) is that EVERYONE knows *knows* KNOWS **KNOWS** what Gold is. Sure, some may not fully appreciate it, but they definitely KNOW what it is. Hell, even a toddler can *grasp* it. Now here's where the truth is found in a contrast: on this other hand, nobody *knows* what the heck "money" is. (Nobody, that is, except for the 17 of us who attend the annual meetings.)

Review October 14th.

Gold. Get you some. Because "no one" knows what money is. --- Ari

Mr GreshamBonner, etc., and a bit of Richebacher on hedonics#11153011/09/03; 12:35:04

Liberty Head: In line with your post below, I drop in Bonner's comments from this week at

Melting Pot: One of your best! Great overview of the entire picture.

Toolie: Thanks for the Brazil insight. More of the picture coming together.

Misetich: Thanks for the Pimco link. Bill Gross fleshes out the risks others are taking with the leveraged bond holdings that he minimizes his durational risk in. He's taking his income hit now, with less risk. They'll all try to bail at once when the political diktat no longer can hold the line and rates are heading up.

G: When you read Bonner's simple summation, you see how opposite we are to the lemming run we watch together. We declare the need to save (not merely buy speculative assets on credit), and we declare the need to save in a medium that is protected from the envious intent of those failed speculators to cheat all true savers of their savings. Oh but it's all right, since "we're all in this together", with the blessing of high parental-type officials.

In their pouting petulance, when those schemes don't pay off, they will lash out and wipe out their debts (and all others’ savings) by popular demand. THAT is the rationale for buying the big McBoxes on 100% (or 125%) credit -- heads I win, tails you lose. (For accuracy‘s sake, that's "tails, I walk away even.")

BONNER: And now we have before us the spectacle of millions of people who think they can get richer - neither by the sweat of their brows... nor the discipline of saving... but by merely by buying a house or a stock. The price of purchase doesn't seem to matter; the secret is just to 'be in the market.'

And since they believe they have found the lazy man's way
to wealth... they see no need for the usual precautions. Why not mortgage up your house... if you know the price will rise? America's savings rate has fallen to one half of one percent of GDP... or less than 3% of personal income. By contrast, the Chinese typically work longer hours, under worse conditions, for 1/10th the pay... and save 35% of their money!

Not only do they not save money, collectively, Americans
spend a half-trillion more than they make... and borrow
another half-trillion - much of it from third-world,
communist nations - to finance their national government.

RICHEBACHER: Yet by far the single biggest contributor to this sudden surge in real GDP growth from the first to second quarter came from the calculation of the price deflator for computers. Measured in current dollars, this investment inched up by $0.8 billion in the first quarter and by $6.3 billion in the second quarter, but the hedonic deflator boosted the two numbers in real terms to $15.3 billion and $38.4 billion. Hedonic pricing of computers in the first quarter accounted for 43% of real GDP growth and for 44% in the second.

G: But then, Americans have always been an impatient people. (Maybe that's what cons the Europeans over and over again -- they envy that restless energy? Sheesh!) And so we are planning to sting the world's lenders once more. Safe behind our coastal walls -- "just try to come and collect it". We'll see.

If there is a comprador political class that can be bought by the big Chinese (Euro, Indian, Caymanian & whoever) money that owns title to mucho US real estate 50 years from now, will they accommodate to having the US serf population bound to it as renters for generations to come? Gotta be in somebody's game plan, maybe after the Boomers are downsized, senile, or gone? A big move, a long time coming -- but one inevitable to those who lose out in the race to save capital.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.An Invitation to Prospective Clients....#11153111/09/03; 14:46:13">News and Views
Carl HEditorial by Sol Palha#11153211/09/03; 14:59:07

There is an editorial by Sol Palha posted over at the neighboring castle. It gives the following quote from Forbes:

"The Journal's coverage of the tax measure focuses on a provision to allow U.S. multinationals a one-year window to repatriate profits from abroad at a reduced tax rate of 5.25%, instead of the current 35% rate. The bill would also eliminate a tax exemption for Americans working overseas."

I know that many US companies that have overseas operations deliberately DO NOT repatriate earnings to avoid paying the taxes. Many of them have saved up earnings over seas and this will be their opportunity to repatriate them at a much lower tax rate. This may cause a significant dumping of other currencies in favor of the dollar. It is possible this might be enough in the way of drugs to keep the strong dollar corpse kicking long enough that Dubya can be a two term prez.

steady honest money#11153311/09/03; 15:18:47

ok im with ya so far so good.
if thats the case then
gold and silver
honest money for
honest people
works for me even if it isnt 100% accurate, close enuf for the populace of this planet to grasp onto.

see if you let money define you either positivly (no debt & more importantly no revenu stream to those who oppose free gold,) or negativly (debt loaden and a cash cow golden goose type of revenu stream to those who oppose free gold) you are in essence saying ok im a worthless human being by default. since all fiat money ever created returns to its original value zero, well actually zero is an increase in value since it was born negativly (debt)but ya get the point.
so be a worth while human and define for yourself what money is and act accordingly.

this defining by the world one mind at a time as to what money is(dont worry they will all have to go thru it for yall know from this board to the world as ideas are spread rather quickly now) will in the long run be the positive cataylist for further social/educational gains world wide than any stimulus package the imf could ever concieve of to indebt a nation . so this defing of money becomes another plank on ecoism platform .

ecoism building a strong foundation for the duration of time.
golds time line forever..... its depth..unknown!

AristotleThis is the sound...#11153411/09/03; 15:31:15

...of me throwing in the towel.


Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

DummyANI@Belgian (11/09/03; 10:30:52MT - msg#: 111521)#11153511/09/03; 17:16:42

I cannot answer very well Japanese situations in English. But it is evident that as Japan cannot hold more Gold, why can she sell dollars or sell US T-bonds ?
The mission of Bank of Japan is examined very carefully by Richard Werner.
He is a most important man in the present financial world.
He verified what Mr. Fukui did in Japan in 1980s.
He is managing a private fund, and his fund will finally exchange all money into gold at a financial crisis.
Please access at the above url
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Cavan ManCarl H#11153611/09/03; 19:14:09

That's all window dressing and whip cream. The dollar's fundamentals are not good.
ZhishengCOT Trots Out Trojan For Last Time!#11153711/09/03; 19:14:10

by Jim Sinclair, Sunday, November 09, 2003, 9:05:00 PM EST

Inadvertently, I believe, but still detrimental to the Gold Community at large, is the latest Trojan horse to be rolled out of the COT stable.

It appeared in a Gold Eagle article by Sol Palha who quotes Forbes as saying, ¡°The Journal¡¯s coverage of tax matters focuses on a provision to allow US multinationals a one year window to repatriate profits from abroad at a reduced tax rate of 5.25% instead of the current 35% rate. The bill will also eliminate a tax exemption for Americans working abroad.¡±

The article goes on to interpret this tax loophole as a means of bulling the dollar higher into the 2004 election. After carefully laying the foundation for his follow-up recommendation, Palha advises his clients to sell gold and gold shares.

I already answered this issue in detail in last week¡¯s article, ¡°Jim Answers Richard Russell¡¯s Question.¡± However, because I am receiving ¡°Emergency¡± communications from terrified Gold Community members, I will again give you the skinny on what this really is and its potential impact on gold.

This tax legislation is a purely pork barrel effort designed to benefit select recipients before the 2004 election. (Nothing really new here!). However, this particular effort is being seriously misinterpreted by the writer and is not significantly dollar positive or gold negative in the least. Here¡¯s why¡±

The amount of funds that can be affected by this legislation are estimated at $150 billion to $300 billion.
These funds would trade in the inter-bank market for currency.
Money repatriated in a legal tax laundry loophole can be expatriated the next day, zeroing the slight impact the trade might have.
The size of the inter-bank market for currency is estimated by the Saint Louis Federal Reserve at one trillion dollars per day. So what is the big deal about even $300 billion over 365 days?
The writer may not know it, but tax treaties exist between the US and almost every major economy in the world. Under these tax treaties, double taxation is significantly modified by making the taxes paid to one nation deductible from US taxes. Because of this, the effective rate in this type of a situation is far from 35%.
So the arithmetic of this legislation is intriguing as it is with any other legislation proposed by this administration. It leads me to believe that some US Fat Cats are getting a gift in this pork barrel tax bill that will allow them to repatriate funds that in fact might not be taxed at all but is needed here in the US.

Keep in mind that the Grand Cayman Islands has a Zero tax rate so funds there have been taxed but at the zero rate. My financial detective sense of ¡°follow the politically favored money¡± makes this special interest pork barrel tax bill smell like a tax laundering mechanism.

One thing this tax bill is NOT is dollar bullish and gold bearish. So forget the nonsense making the rounds in the Gold Community and get ready for the real play in gold that¡¯s coming soon to a theatre near you.

Beware of the self-styled ¡°gold experts¡± with no experience in foreign exchange markets or any other market for that matter. Intellectual knowledge is dangerous when it¡¯s laid upon the real world of trading.

Analytical knowledge is good but those that have it in many cases simply do not understand the mechanics of markets and often get lost because of their inexperience. Generally half- experienced geniuses become half-assed advisors.

Again, I would encourage you to post my review on this issue to the chat groups that you frequent because another Trojan horse has been placed in the camp of the Gold Community.

Dollar Bill*>*#11153811/09/03; 19:31:21

Thanks for the info Sir Carl H.
RemarxThanks, White Rose#11153911/09/03; 20:28:56

I found the original Pravda article at:
(and at Pravda itself, but I lost that link).

I found some more follow up info at:

Indications seem to be that they were transport aircraft. One author seemed to think they were for a NATO conference, another for troop deployments.

It may not seem directly related to gold, but any such attack would certainly make the price jump, IMHO!

Cheers -r

DummyANI@Belgian (11/09/03; 10:30:52MT - msg#: 111521)#11154011/09/03; 20:55:00

Hello, Sir Belgian, I present another Answer to your question:What if the japanese will one day make a choice between, being (remaining) the dollar's obedient servant or melting (on a large scale) into the arch enemy's Chinese economy ???

Answer: Mr. Fukui, he is a governor for Bank of Japan, is literally a puppet of Wall-Street.
This progress is investigated in detail by Richard Werner.
A puppet is manipulated by a man. The puppet is never to try to manipulate the man.
I cannot image that Bank of Japan is decoupled from US-dollar system.
And a true power is executed by a central bank, not by a sitting administration. This process is vividly described in gPrinces of the Yen: Japans Central Bankers and the Transformation of the Economyh by Richard Werner.
This book explains what central banks do in a real world.
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Goldbug 1Fur Face goes bullish......#11154111/10/03; 00:45:00

I am sure you have all been waiting for this signal.
Today Fur Face says buy Precious Metals. I have already followed his advice and then cracked open some bubbly.

The CoinGuyHis Royal Fur Face....#11154211/10/03; 01:22:13

or HRFF to be short,

As I returned from a business meeting this evening, I checked into the forum to see your comments. Perhaps, another mint julep will bring you into that happy place?

If you're buying the metals, in the morning, I will be placing my first sell in this sector since March. No more contracts carried forward, or spec pos taken in delightful run is over...

Better call Doc, and get some better advice..wait, that's laughable in itself,

The (physical) CoinGuy

BelgianSaudi Arabia#11154311/10/03; 04:02:15

The "Laurent Murawiec" ( French Rand Corporation specialist) scenario on Saudi Arabia is (imo) gaining momentum. Note that Murawiec has been the European redactor for EIR (Lyndon Larouche) for 20 years. Now in the neocon camp (?).

Income from Arabian oil is the financial basis for the international moslim-fraternity. This money flows into the remotest cave or island on the planet. The POO and oil money flow is crucial for the whole islamic organisation.

The end goal of the WOT is definitely the immobilization of Saudi Arabia, in one way or the other. I think that the consequences will be shocking ! Thoughts anyone ?

@D-ANI : Thanks for the links (R.Werner) in your response.

Socrates964Belgian#11154411/10/03; 05:17:43

I tend to agree, and have read about a Neocon wetdream along the lines of carving up Saudi into a big Gulf State-like oil producer and leaving the Wahabite extremists to mill around in the desert.

On the evidence of Iraq, we can expect major disruptions to oil production which, IMHO, would result in a period of $60-100 oil. This would actually have a silver lining in the long-run, since it would finally force major spending on alternative energy. In the short-run, however, it would be a disaster.

On a related note, NYMEX Dec light sweet appears to be breaking resistance - key Fib levels 61.8% @ 30.91, 78.6% @ 31.63.

This actually ties in through the back door with the story about Brazil/RSA/India starting to join forces. From the Wilderness recently ran a story about the incredible dependence of intensive N Am farming on oil due to decreasing land productivity - largely because of the cost of heavy fertilizer use.

One of Brazil's advantages is the low intensity, non-high tech farming methods it employs.

This could actually turn FTAA/ALCA on its head, in that far from trying to ban Brazilian imports by subsidizing domestic farmers, they may actually need imports to fill up the domestic production gap.

On the other hand, despite this rosy scenario, I would tend to bet on it eventually being thwarted by the sheer incompetence and short-termism of Brazilian politicians.

White RoseBelgium#11154511/10/03; 05:55:11

I have to admit to being a very, very big fan of your posts. They always require more effort to decode, but it is always worthwhile. In fact, I have considered asking our hosts if they could provide a page of just your postings.

I agree that the seizing of the Saudi oil fields is the main objective of the American ruling class. It is so important that they do not want to do it too hastily. My feeling is that they see no reason to do it before the presidential election.

I share Mike Rupert's (of "from the wilderness") view that this presidential election can be thought of as each candidate pitching to the elites that they are best suited to pull off this next "mission" of American conquest. The candidate that convinces the elites the best will win because of the massive power of the elites to effect the "horse race" (1. manipulate media 2. highlight or suppress scandals 3. move money and key persons to or from different candidates 4. activate or de-activate "trojan horse" staff people with true allegiences to the power elites 5. cause plane crashes)

As I understand it, the plan is to de-stabalize Saudi Arabia. American troops will seize the main oil fields which are away from the Saudi population centers. By the way, true Saudi population figures are secret since there are so few Saudi citizens.

My sense is that Kerry is the most likely Democratic candidate to offer a credible team to pull this off. This implies that the campaign season will not go well for Dean.

I suspect that this operation could only be carried about during a deep crisis phase. I think that gold will soar first, then America will go after Saudi Arabia.

Belgium: you drop a hint that such an operation would have dreadful consequences. Please tell us what you have in mind.

Belgian@Socrates#11154611/10/03; 06:59:24

I know very little (nothing in fact) about Brasil's importance as a world player.
A hefty percentage of the globe's agricultural products are
heavely subsidized for a myriad of reasons. I don't expect any life-threathening shortages anytime soon...even when the POO goes to 144$ (OBL-price). There are so many places on the planet where extensive agriculture can be started/extended.

The altering POO is having much more impact on the moslim fraternity as a fast growing fraction out of 1,3 Billion moslims. They are on the income side of Arabian oil.

In the long run, we can manage (adapt to) *steadily* rising crude prices. But crude oil (its availability) is much more than a commodity with a price ! It is a political commodity, because it generates enormous (and easy) state income through taxes, impacting fiscal policies.
But what makes oil so very special, is that it is getting more and more "dollar-related" (associated) and less market-related !!! Oil=dollars and vice versa, dollars=oil.
Watch how the POO reacts much faster/accurate (than POG) to the dollar's exchange rate versus the euro !!!
Crude Oil, its dollar-price, is in fact "valueing" (pricing) the dollar !

Do we realize, enough, the total political load that oil does carry ? There is a *reason* WHY many (almost all) keep the oil-element, out of the whole WOT-thing !
Oil's future is directly related to the planet's dollar-reserve status ! Gas, will be the next resource that will become increasingly politicized.

If and when Saudi Arabia falls...the dollar acquired some more lifetime, imo.

Remember the clumsy timing of the Chavez-Venuzuela coup d'état. Will probably happen somewhat later. Note that Columbia (nor Algeria-East Timor...etc) is not included in the axis of evil.

Many astute, wise, sovereign and experienced world-observers, stubbornly refuse to communicate (remain silent) on the vital oil-dollar link (and now even on 9/11) !!!
For very...VERY, good reasons, of course.

Arabian oil-dollars were never and will never be recycled in any kind of productive system as to replace the depleting black treasure. This oil-manna is consumed by the moslim fraternity. Who dares to suggest publicly, linking the consumption of Arabian oil as indirect terror-financing/support ? Clinton visited Antwerp (Belgium) this week, on invitation of the international diamond traders. Clinton praised, without stopping, the high morality (hummm) of banning the so called blood diamonts ! A genial system to avoid excess diamond-offer from the many wild cats, operating out of the de Beers cartel (monopoly).

If you can find English translations of the works from Peter some of these. Very enlightening, indeed.

Keep us informed with your EW/FIB analyses ! I very often agree with them. Not that this a reference....smilllllllllleeeeeeieieieie.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Build your financial base at just 1% over our cost, FREE shipping on 25oz.#11154711/10/03; 07:01:17">Gold Bullion
masBelgium, from the Privateer...#11154811/10/03; 07:09:37

The True Sinews Of War:
They are money, More Money, AND YET MORE MONEY. This is where ECB chief economist Issing's
words come to the fore. Herr Issing is the European Central Bank's chief economist. He did go to
London specifically to make his speech.
Here are some excerpts From Herr Issing's London speech:
"It would be dangerous to believe that excessive expansionary measures would be a valuable
contribution. They would be in the interest neither of the US nor of the Euro area, as they would give rise
to imbalances elsewhere which would have to be corrected at some point in the future."
"Artificially stimulating the economy by large budget deficits and/or inflationary monetary policy is no
viable option. In fact, history tells us that such policies can only provide temporary straw fires, with
potentially damaging long-term consequences."
"Given the historical track record of public entities with respect to the efficient use of funds, this shift
towards the public sector both on the financing and on the allocation side may in itself provide some
cause for concern."
"The current level of the US current account deficit is in the longer run unsustainable and an adjustment
will eventually occur, whether actively supported by macroeconomic policies or not. I sometimes have
the impression that Europe and the US are separated by two different schools of thought in that respect."
"In Europe the view seems to prevail that a problem with the US current account deficit indeed exists,
while on the other side of the Atlantic, many people do not consider this to be a problem, at least not for
the US, but rather for Europe."
And the most critically decisive words in Herr Issing's speech:
An Historical Door Slams Shut:
Politically, there is no way that the chief economist of the ECB would EVER have been let loose to go
out on his own and make such a speech. But, speaking under the banners of the ECB and doing so in
London, makes this speech an international event because of where it was made
Herr Issing's is truly a signal speech in the terms of global monetary affairs because it spelled out the
With this speech - the post 1944 Bretton Woods trans-Atlantic monetary cooperation is OVER.

masBelgiam, more from Privateer...#11154911/10/03; 07:20:40

The Primary Facts:
Total US credit, i.e. money lent and therefore debts now owed, has expanded by $US 11.7 TRILLION or
57% to $US 32.4 TRILLION over the past 22 quarters. That's just five and one-half years. The total US
credit has now been expanded at an unprecedented annualized amount of $US 2.82 TRILLION or 25% of
US GDP during the first half of this year. Translated from these raw numbers, that bluntly means that the
US as an economy is borrowing 25% of its living standard.
Over the past year, measured on a month to month basis up to the end of September, the nominal US GDP
increased 5.0% or $US 532.2 Billion to $US 11.04 TRILLION.
Right here in plain economic terms is the fact that kills all US economic, monetary and financial
pretensions. The FACT is that it took annualised borrowings of $US 2.82 TRILLION to generate a sad
small increase in GDP of $US 532 Billion.
All Pumped Up:
The American economy has now reportedly roared ahead at an annual growth rate of 7.2 percent in the
third quarter, the fastest pace since 1984. Consumers and businesses have picked up spending, but that is
not to be wondered at because of the huge Bush tax cuts and tax rebates that arrived in American
consumers’ hands and the federal budget deficit which is pumping about 550 Billion US Dollars into the
American economy. That $US 550 Billion can be added to the $US 2.82 TRILLION they borrowed.
It is THIS situation which the European Union (EU) has walked away from. The ONLY thing that
remains to be seen is when the Asians follow suit.
When the Asians, too, give up, the US Dollar will have its historic, head first dive.

masBelgian#11155011/10/03; 07:22:45

Sorry for spelling name wrongly.
Federal_ReservesRetail sales expected to show a DECLINE this week#11155111/10/03; 07:38:47

on the back of a huge decline in Auto Sales. GM's sales collapsed 8%. WMT same store sales up 3-5%. Both well below recently posted 7% GDP numbers.

Trade deficit out as well. A huge trade deficit is a drag on GDP.

Crude oil has spiked above $31. Big resistance at $32.50. Above that it could fly. Next terror attack could target a tanker or pipeline rather than a copter or civilian center?

Belgian@White Rose#11155211/10/03; 08:05:35

As an amateur observer, I try to listen carefully on what (silent) Euroland says as reaction on US policies. Everybody is politely but firmly requested to stop all fantasies on 9/11 conspiracy theories. There was NO conspiracy. Period, over and out !

This against the background of the fact that Euroland is more dependant on gas/oil imports than the US. This while it is the US, who is unilaterally, organizing (hum) oil-matters in the M.E.
Open question rises : Is the EU silently starting to agree, and to what extend on US' oil(!)-policies, for the long term benefit of the two of us (US-EU) !? If so, this means a change.

Another funny thing happened. President Bush insisted that Turkey should join EU. A Trojan horse of course. This week Belgian PM went to Turkey. No comments on his return. Funny !

Brussels' based NATO is still dis-agreeing on the "out of area" principle. Means Atlantic (US-EU) military cooperation outside the EU/US borders (Saudi Arabia-?).

Putin in Italy and embracing (became a trendy thing) EU as never before. Will Saudi Arabia have to pay the price for the EU-Russia growing resource-alliances ?


The utmost (political)importance of Saudi Arabia as oilprice-regulating, swing producer, comes into the headlights ! Oil consumers, worldwide, and hundreds of millions of the moslim fraternity(ies) are going to be affected by this dramatic change in political load of the POO ! The "dollar" in short term control of global oil-consumers/producers and moslim-income ! Global democratization ???

All this boils down to the main question, if and to what extend is the world ready to keep using/supporting/recognizing the dollar-reserve-system !?
During the cold war, the USSR-threaths (?), and the military Atlantic Alliance forces, made nobody doubt about the practicality of using the dollar-reserve. Things have...and are changing, very rapidly. American dominance is constantly put in question (evaluation) now. But has to be done, cautiously. A sudden and brutal change on Saudi Arabia, would rock the boat (this process) drastically.

Schould Saudi Arabia be occupied, before or after, it has nuclear potence (from Russia or Pakistan or other) !? Idem dito for Iran !? How will nuclear-Russia react !? France is increasing its nuclear capacity, also ! etc...

The crusade on islam is affecting Euroland (more so than the US) in many aspects, other than the oil element. Arabs can be hired for some time (past 30 years), but never be bought entirely ! We seem to underestimate this given and its consequences. The so called WOT was predicted to be a long one. It will be a long AND exhausting one. WWIII, I'm afraid !? Will it be the last dollar-war or not ?

Saudi Arabia hasn't been pushing its luck with reckless rises of the POO. It remained very disciplined into the political range of 22$-28$, up until now ! In other words, the planet's swing producer keeps on supporting the dollar and dollar-system, for the time being. Any further suggestion or rumor on Saudi Arabia will increase the tensions. Remember that I regulary drew our attention on the deafphening silence on and about Saudi Arabia.

The International Intrigants must be feasting now. How cynical.

VanRipFree Trade Americas (FTAA)#11155311/10/03; 08:22:36

A little more on what has already been posted re FTAA

Miami is getting a little jittery over the FTAA (Free Trade Americas) meeting coming up around the 17th of November. Reps from 34 countries will be there to discuss a tariff free trade zone from Alaska to Argentina.

Haven't seen much national press on this (for obvious reasons I suppose) though the area papers here have taken notice. Protesters are gathering already outside Miami for organizational and planning purposes.

At leat three of the huge ocean tour ships based in Miami are moving up the coast to load during the meetings since traffic is expected to be snarled the entire time, among other things, from what I hear. Some of the sessions may have to be held outside Miami to diffuse the protesting, some perhaps in West Palm Beach.

If orange juice and sugar tariffs are ever removed, the Florida orange and sugar industries are claiming they will be put out of business, costing Florida millions of dollars and thousands of jobs. These are huge Florida industries and their displeasure along with many others will most certainly be heard. It's hot enough in Miami without this.

This is being discussed as an extension of NAFTA and a lot of folks I talk to are mad as hell about it. Will post an agenda if and when I can get one.

steadyzu ba zoom#11155411/10/03; 08:36:04

TownCrierGold firms in quiet early NY after Saudi weekend blast#11155511/10/03; 08:38:55

NEW YORK, Nov 10 (Reuters) - A deadly bombing in Saudi Arabia over the weekend kept COMEX gold firmer Monday morning...

A U.S. official said Monday that Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network was suspected in staging the suicide attack which killed at least 17 people and wounded 120 in Riyadh, in an effort to undermine the royal family and government of Saudi Arabia.

"If there was anybody out there who thought that everything was hunky dory, I guess he doesn't think that any more," said a bullion dealer.

"I still think it's going to go higher. Last week that's all everyone could talk about at the gold dinner," he said, referring to the annual industry event sponsored by the NYMEX.

Many still look for gold to test $400 by the end of the year.

----(from url)----

White RoseBelgium#11155611/10/03; 08:48:58

As I have mentioned a few times, I go my start at seeking "alternative information" investigating the Kennedy assassination. Your statement that Europeans are being warned not to speak of 9/11 conspiracies reminds me of the assertion of one author that in less than an hour after the shots were fired on Nov. 22, 1963, one of the Bundy brothers, speaking from the White House situation room announced to all those in the governement that there was no conspiracy and there was only one gunmen. If one was in the motorcade and heard/sensed shots coming from multiple directions, hearing the the intelligence community had announced there was only one gunman would cause one to keep one's mouth shut until events began clearer.

To my knowledge, they never got clearer.

I gather you are saying that if the US should grab the Saudi oil fields now, they would face nuclear attack from Russia and France. Interesting. How does this relate to the large number of American military planes that traveled from US to Europe/Middle East last weekend? Is this routine or is something coming up soon?

adminNews & Views#11155711/10/03; 08:54:16

ZhishengGood gold action this morning.#11155811/10/03; 09:02:32

Gold is UP about $2.50 while the dollar is DOWN about a quarter of a cent versus the Euro.
BelgianHowhow mas....Great posting ! Thanks#11155911/10/03; 09:05:36

Annualised borrowings $ 2,82 Tril. divided by $ 532 Bil. of GDP-increase : 2,820 : 532 = 5,3
This debt-driven-political economical system, needs 5,3 dollars of DEBT to add 1 $ at the GDP !!! Kurt Richebacher !

Issing was send (!) to the UK with the message that Duisenberg already knew, some time ago. Recently, D. de Villepin (France foreign affairs) was also invited to the UK. His speech was thrilling (to me).
Remember, mas, how important it is that the UK joins EMU, sooner or later ! Duisenberg never worried about this and introvertly/mysteriously always smiled when questions on this subject were asked....They will join,...somewhat later though, he always murmered.

Euroland has also a big debt-load and it is also increasing.
But there are very fundamental differences between euro and dollar debt and debt-growth.

Remember the story of the debt-lion and the two running currency-prays...
Remember the difference between the dollar-gold and euro-gold concept ...
Remember Another's two ($-€) different bonzai trees...
Note that the dollar's twin deficits cannot be turned around anymore...
Note that the dollar will never give up fighting...

"With" the dollar for as long as it can..."Without" the dollar as soon as it cannot anymore.

ZhishengOOPS#11156011/10/03; 09:10:41

Meant to say the dollar was UP a quarter of a cent.
GoldiloxMorning Gold Status#11156111/10/03; 10:02:04

ODJ Europe Precious Metals: Spot Gold Rebounds; Dlr Dictates Moves

By Chanyaporn Chanjaroen
London, Nov. 10 (OsterDowJones) - Spot gold rebounded Monday in early
Europe trade on the back of bargain hunting and the dollar correction, but
gains have been capped around $385 a troy ounce.
Buying has been mostly from Japan following the yen strength against the
dollar, traders said.

Goldilox: BOJ maybe wants to hold some more Au along with their mattress full of $US????

Gandalf the WhiteP&F Chart "MAY" have the GREEN ROCKET reversal at $392. <;-)#11156211/10/03; 10:31:25$GOLD,P

AND the FORMATION will be a TRIPLE TOP !!!
The mantra is now:
$392. $392. $392.

Belgian@White Rose#11156311/10/03; 10:46:29

I don't know what is the specific purpose of these planes. We will soon find out if it is Saudi related or not.
I haven't been making conclusions on the ongoing multiple nuclear moves. Simply observing how the balances of power do evolve and how these could affect our common Gold-subject, directly or indirectly.
That's why I learned to leave many mysteries for what they are and simply stock them on my memory disk up until things start making sense.

And the adm.'s F.T. post on Jim Rogers does make sense to me. Jim wants to turn Gold into lead ! Whoehaa, Jim joined the London based A. Smith cabal, as I posted already, when he appeared on CNBC-Europ some time ago !
Read that F.T. article with a sharp analysing mind and conclude the subjective "tendency" (spin-talk) in this article.

US (Armitage) says : Al Quaeda wants to topple the house of Sauds ! I leave the full decodation of this to others who know the real history of Al Quaeda, aka the green legion !

BelgianFED-wars in News and Views#11156411/10/03; 11:20:52

Low IRs for a "considerable period" '04 !?
Same rumors from ECB ! IR hikes around Q3 '04 !? Signs of EU, dollar-support for the sake of "stability" !?

What does this means for the possible outlook for the POG over the next year to come ?
Steady to slowly rising goldprice with the classical 6$ (and multiples thereoff) swings, zigzagging more up than down. If all goes according to plans/hopes/wishes, no fireworks for POG !? But a steady and slow rise is almost guaranteed, as an anticipation of the much needed, further easy money policies as to keep on supporting everything that concerns the dollar's use/survival ! One more year of expanding debts and dollar-masses...without flagrant price-inflation-signals .

Only Greenspan could have mobilized all his proxies (allied bankers) to have this unique tour de force, realized !
I find this terrific news, dear forumers. A slow but steady ...rise. Hummmmmmm. If all goes well of course ?

As a sidenote : What if on a sudden day, 20...50 or more soldiers are murdered in Iraq in one single atrocity ?
Strengthened Japanese opposition doesn't want japanese soldiers (or peacekeepers) in Iraq !

TownCrierBelgian's "What if..."#11156511/10/03; 11:43:39

If such an unnerving shock is suffered, then we can perhaps assume that society will risk paying a "high cost" for living this long under an inherently instable monetary structure of suppressed gold in the dollar/IMF regime.

This conclusion is if we take a cue from the recent London comment by ECB's Issing:

"Theoretical insights and central banking experience are both fundamental components of good monetary policy making, but especially so at the time of historical events.

"In order to deal effectively with these events, sound institutional arrangements play a central role. Historical evidence and theory agree in pointing out that central bank independence and a clear mandate for price stability are the basic elements of a sound institutional set-up. They provide the premises to establish credibility, to anchor inflationary expectations and ultimately deliver price stability and foster a stable macroeconomic environment.

"We must never forget this message, nor ever take credibility for granted, even at times when price stability is established and there seem to be minor challenges ahead. Credibility is hard to gain, but it is easily lost. To be maintained, it requires continuous vigilance. If lost, it can be regained only at high costs to society."

---end of excerpt---


GoldiloxIndian PM Imports Up!#11156611/10/03; 12:30:08

MUMBAI: The significance of non-oil imports as an indicator of economic recovery may get diluted considering that a large part of these now constitute imports of gold and silver. The share of these precious metals is also showing signs of overtaking the share of capital goods in total non-oil imports, in value terms.

With the falling dollar making gold imports cheaper, the value of gold and silver imports during April to May this year rose 79% to Rs 1,447 crore, compared with the corresponding period last year. This was largely on account of a rise in gold imports, which rose 90%. As against this, the total value of capital goods imported during the period rose only 16%, to Rs 1,330 crore from Rs 1,148.7 crore in the year-ago period.

In April-June ’03, preliminary figures show, gold and silver imports went up 99.9%, rebounding from a 40.9% dip in the corresponding period last year. In contrast, capital goods imports went up 35.3%, compared with 29.9% in the year-ago period. Both are major components of non-oil imports and together account for around 25% of non-oil imports, with shares roughly in the region of 12% each. Non-oil imports during the first quarter went up 25%, as against 18.6% a year ago.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)Genesis Energy System#11156711/10/03; 12:36:58

Is anybody aware of this outfit. Is it a scam or are they for real?
geWorld Bank backs Caspian [Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC)]pipeline - Nov 6, 2003#11156811/10/03; 12:50:20

"...has the potential to deliver a million barrels of crude a day to the Ceyhan terminal over the next 20 years, then to be shipped to global users via supertanker."

Oil Export Routes and Options in the Caspian Sea Region

The main Bosphorus By-Pass line is the AMBO pipeline thru, Albania-Macedonia-Bulgaria with a capacity of 750,000 barrels per day.

A discreet deal in the pipeline,3604,438134,00.html

The new Great Game,3604,446490,00.html

Cometoseweekly nearby chart of GOLD#11156911/10/03; 13:19:35

This is looking like a pass right through resistance is emmenent....perhaps tomorrow ......
Intersting that everybody gets a freeshot tomorrow being that the market is closed tommorrow......being veteran's day ........

Someone so aptly drew the link between the Stock Markets stability and increase on declining oil price .......THe Fed and Insurance companies and all their buddies in the Mutual fund industry may have placed their collective (derivitives bets ) on stable interst rates and growth of market indices based on being able to maintain their status quo and CONTROL..their outcomes........GUess we will all get to wait and see.....after all why control Iraqui oil when you can get IRAQ and Saudi Arabia....Oil at the same time.......Will not our obfuscation of their oil funds also dry up the treasury by which international terrorism is now being funded.......Can this be pulled off??? This may cause some immediate rebellion on the part of the entire Arab WORLD which may bring WWIII sooner than later.....or an immediate interruption in the flow of oil because of terrorist activity which may DRAW CHINESE presence may call it the One HUNDRED MILLION MAN MARCH ......Will there be a warning shot fired over the bow of the Aggreessive AMERICAN MILITARY MACHINE'S BOW??????/ to cease and desist? Is this going to work ???

Maybe , the airplanes are going to be used to destroy the CHINESE highway to the middle east. Perhaps , it's now time to invade IRAN , the second lieutenant in the "AXIS OF EVIL"

GoldiloxMarket Close#11157011/10/03; 13:30:07

According to CNBC (and we know they are always right on - just like the Rolling Stone), only the bond market is closed tomorrow. Stocks and Comex are open for business.
R PowellThe CoinGuy#11157111/10/03; 13:42:44

From 111542, where you stated...

"my run is over"

May I ask why? Have you found greener pastures for investment or is this just a temporary lightening up for profit taking as a precaution in response to an anticipated downturn??

Carl H@Zhisheng Re #111537#11157211/10/03; 14:21:45

I think that Sinclair underestimates the effect of the tax change. Perhaps the way to look at it is what would happen if a central bank was intervening on the same side at the rate of ~$1B every business day. My observation is that CB's tend to do it in somewhat more concentrated batches, but I'll bet that even Japan's CB does not expend more than $150B per year in keeping the yen weak.

As a side note, I have seen the $1T/day statistic for the forex markets a number of times over the years. I have always thought that there is something odd about this number -- it appears to me to vastly exceed foreign trade activity -- probably by a factor of more than 100. So who is pushing all this money around? My guess is speculators speculators? If that is the case, I doubt that they have any where near $1T in total capital. Hence, the market may be much thinner than the number indicates.

All that said, I am still a big proponent of physical gold and silver. Regardless of what games they may play with the paper currencies and paper gold markets, two facts still stand. 1. The central banks can't print physical gold. 2. Per Uncle Al, "Gold is still the ultimate form of payment."

Got Physical Gold?

CaradocMore on Saudi situation#11157311/10/03; 14:48:44

A few random thoughts that may play into what happens in Saudi Arabia....

First off, forget about any Arabian self-awareness of identity as what westerners think of as a "nation."

As background, the idea of a nation state is a European concept which began on the Isle de France and spread to England and Spain before getting to Germany and Italy in the 19th century. Metternich's comment in 1850 about the silliness of every little language group thinking it deserves to be a nation set the tone for the next hundred years or so as Europeans including Brits and -- later --Americans drew lines on maps to define "nations" and accidentally mess up the lives the disparate groups living inside those borders. Just ask the Ibo of a couple decades ago or the warring factions in Uganda. Or ask a Kurd or a Baluchi why there's no Kurdistan or Baluchistan.

The idea of a nation per se makes even less sense in the Arabic-speaking world where the mental construct triggered by the word "Syria" for example is that of the city of Damascus surrounded by an indefinite amount of sand that tapers off into the distance. True, the wandering Bedouin are fewer today with people having moved into the cities, but Saudi city dwellers regard their Bedouin grandfathers (and current Bedouin) with the same respect that Americans used to have for those identified as "Pilgrim fathers" or "Pioneer ancestors." And to a Bedouin, the fact that he might have wandered marginally closer to one city than another and thereby crossed a "national border" is virtually meaningless.

Apart from the lack of selfawareness of national identity or loyalty to that nation, the loyalty that does exist is indicated by the attitude of "Me against my brothers. My brothers and I united against our cousins. We and our cousins united as a tribe against the other tribes in the region." As a matter of practicality, the occasion for conflicts between regions hasn't arisen very often so there's no prewiring of the thought process that would allow for the idea of various regions uniting as a nation to war against other nations. So, it's not a coincidence that the troops of Saudi Arabia's "National Guard" under Crown Prince Abdullah (think "Army of the Interior" as opposed to the Ministry of Defence under his half-brothers) are drawn almost exclusively from the Najd region that happens to be centered around Riyahd.

With the Najd being Wahabbi Sunni and the oil producing areas being largely Shiite (and not even cousins), when things start to fall apart, the ruling family will be able to get out of Dodge faster than anybody else since the exclusive "Royal Airport" is a bit closer to town than the airport everybody else will be trying to use.

Regarding any fighting that will take place (and there won't be a lot of it), another historical parallel applies. Just as the gold of the New World allowed Spain to contract out to Belgium and Holland virtually everything that needed doing (and so become dependent on foreigners), the oil wealth of Saudi Arabia has allowed them to get in the habit of paying others to do what's needed (Filipino clerks, Korean heavy equipment operators, Yemani ditchdiggers, etc.) The cliche is that Saudi Arabia will be willing to fight to the last Yemani.

Keep in mind that despite difficult-to-defend geography, loyalties that go no higher than regional level and a total
population closer to 7 million than the reported 14 million or so, Saudis have historically been proud of not having foreign troops stationed on their soil. I don't know what the relationship is between the Saudis and South Korea (including whether Korea gets a break on the price of oil), but it's no secret that outside the oil city of Dhahran a Korean construction company has located a compound of very physically fit young men (numbered at about division-level) who look like you wouldn't want to mess with them and who just might know how to do more than operate bulldozers. With the probability that the last word from the departing royals will be "We're leaving. You stay here and fight," my thought is that with any luck, the US State Department talks to DoD so if/when there's a decision to secure the Saudi oilfields the first troops in will include troops easily recognizable as South Korean.

Implication for gold: whatever happens happens quickly, say about 48 hours after the price of gold is driven upwards by those preparing to depart and adding to their stash outside the Kingdom. Then, to the extent that those outside Saudi Arabia regard the collapse of Saudi rule as destabilizing, the price of gold continues upwards. Since all this could happen within days or a few weeks, I'd expect that commercial traders are about to go long if they haven't begun to do so already.


PS: for a fairly dense read on 21st century awareness versus a viewpoint based on 18th century historiography:

specie-manaircraft#11157411/10/03; 16:16:24

Maybe those "transport" aircraft that were moved from the west coast will come back here as cargo planes loaded with explosives - just like they recently warned us about.

I don't think that, but a conspiracy theorist could connect the dots that way.

specie-manGenesis Energy System (enery & metals)#11157511/10/03; 16:31:27

I looked at the web site bout couldn't find any details on how it really worked (figures).

From what I can tell, it looks like a hydrolysis & fuel cell setup.

You start with water. Apply electrical current (energy) to break the water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen gas.

Then use the gasses in a fuel cell. Energy (electrical current) is produced, along with water.

There is, however, no net energy created. The amount of energy required for the hydrolysis is slighly MORE than the amount of energy given off by the combustion of the gasses in an engine or fuel cell.

This whole scheme is, in effect, just an energy storage mechanism (it is more efficient than batteries, however).

It would be possible to have floating ocean platforms with banks of solar cells (to generate electricity for hydrolysis) and storage tanks for the gasses.

As world oil supplies are depleted, I see a growing demand for precious metals in energy production/distribution. Especially solar cells (silver), solar furnaces (silver mirrors), electrical transmission (silver), catylists (platinum/palladium), and fuel cells (platinum/palladium). Does this leave gold "out in the cold", so to speak ? Other than corrosive-resistant electrical contacts, what other energy uses might there be for gold ?

The CoinGuyRPowell#11157611/10/03; 16:36:59

Hello Rich...

The post was actually in jest to Fur Face who travels the outer spheres of the web boasting that gold is a barbarous relic not worthy of investment, not to mention any profits will be taken with the confiscation of gold. If he felt it was now time to go long, I was replying perhaps it would be time to short. In jest. Nothing more.

Both of these arguments I believe to be a foolish waste of time.

As far as my own positions in this market, as a professional I really cannot comment as I'd like, but I will say this. My ST opinion lies on the same page as Sinclair, my LT opinion is, "FOA's writings weren't assumptions."

Everytime I pick up some silver I'm thinking of you Rich.

Best Regards,

The CoinGuy

slingshotMidas Crusade#11157711/10/03; 18:04:39

In the morning the long line assembled and began to move through the forest. The majestic trees that had caused the Goldbugs some concern in the night, inspired awe again. It was said the trees were protected by a spell that allowed them to grow so large. The odd thing is that there was not one fallen tree of its kind upon the forest floor.
The passage of the Althean forest would take a few days and the giants of the night became an amusement for the travelers. Each new night the plays of light and shadows become entertaining as each formed group tried to out do each other.
Then it happen.
The day before the Army of the Goldbugs would exit the woods, they found the missing scouts.
Those at the head of the column could see movement ahead for nature's scavengers were busily at work upon the bodies of the dead. They were secured to the trees by nail and rope and positioned on both sides of the road so they would not be missed. Sir M.K. haulted the column. He looked at his fellow Knights. Sir Black Blade and Cougar moved slowly toward them. Then other Knights dismounted and went over to catch the the bodies as Sir Black Blade and Cougar cut their bonds. As one of the fallen Knights was taken down from his place of torture a rolled parchment fell to the ground.
It was handed to Sir Black Blade and he unrolled it and began to read the message. Cougar had come to his side.
It read.
We have watched you as you have played in the forest.
If you act as children, then you will not be hard to defeat.
I say to you, turn around and go back to your castle and live the lives you enjoy, for we will come for you in the end.
Gandalf, who was at the middle of the column making sure all was well, rode forward went it stopped and saw the horrific scene.
Moving to where Cougar and Sir Black Blade were reading the message. He was then handed the paper.
Gandalf took the paper to Sir.M.K. He would read it later.
He turned to Gandalf and asked, Insure they are buried and well marked. We camp here, Gandalf.
That night the fires did not burn as bright and the shadow giants did not play with the Goldbugs.


VanRipFree Trade Americas (FTAA) - continued#11157811/10/03; 18:25:29

A piece at Yahoo about handling the potential protests. Nothing really about what the protests are all about.

MIAMI - Police preparing for large and potentially violent protests during trade talks here next week are borrowing a tactic from the Pentagon (news - web sites): They are offering to "embed" reporters in police squads.
Trade officials from 34 countries will discuss creating a free trade area that will cover all of the Western Hemisphere except Cuba.
The protests are expected to draw tens of thousands of people. Police want to be prepared for the kind of violence that broke out during the World Trade Organization (news - web sites) talks in Seattle in 1999. Those riots cost the city about $3 million and resulted in 500 arrests and accusations that police overreacted.

misetichUS Treasury holdings top $1,000bn - by Foreign Central Banks#11157911/10/03; 18:27:52


Despite the easing of concerns, a senior official at the Thai central bank on Monday warned investors of severe disruption to bond markets, if Asian economies slow, thus forcing their central banks to offload US assets. "Should Asian economies falter in the future, this could affect every country, including the United States," said Tasna Rajatabhothi, an assistant governor at the Thai central bank.

The topic was discussed at meeting of senior central bank officials, hosted by the Bank for International Settlements.

But fears of selling have so far not been borne out. Since the beginning of this year, foreign central banks' holdings of Treasuries and agency bonds have increased by $150bn, helping underpin the market. Foreign investors now own almost a half of liquid Treasury bonds.

The biggest foreign holder of US Treasuries is the Bank of Japan which, in the third quarter, spent a record Y7,551bn on currency interventions.
Asian central banks have driven the increase in foreign holdings of US government debt.

According to data on the top 20 countries of origin, Asian holdings in Treasury bonds rose by more than $100bn to $744.9bn between January and August. By comparison, European bond holdings totalled $275.2bn by August.

Ian Douglas, fixed-income analyst at UBS Warburg, said:

"The $150bn increase in [Asian] central bank holdings is the equivalent of six two-year Treasury auctions."

Astounding $1 trillion and growing by the minute

How long can this go on? Ad infinitum says Wall Street/US Feds

China has been the engine of Asia's economic growth - fuelling imports from Japan and SE Asia -

Japan's unemployment is increasing and with the recent election result the incumbent government will have more difficulty - thus a stalled political process is assured that can only damage the already fragile situation in Japan-

Japan's banks are the big lenders in SE Asia - and China is Japan's archenemy

Strange bedfellows US dependent on China-

What will the Red Dragon demand? Will the Taiwan issue be the catalyst of US $ dump or threat to do so?

There is a certain uncomfortable feeling in holding US $ investments -

Why not diversify into Physical Gold?

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetichWGC's quiet revolution#11158011/10/03; 18:42:37

Snips from an article posted at Mineweb

Rhona O'Connell has departed WGC - thus no more daily report from WGC

WGC lower profile

WGC quartely trends handed over to GFMS

Closed 11 offices worlwide in last year

Promotion re: central banks has been severely cut back - now concentrating on "quiet diplomacy"

Jewelly ad campaign budget trimmed to $4 million from $55 a year ago


Awful smell coming out from WGC - implicated in the ABX lawsuit as deceiving gold investors by not including producers hedging sales as part of supply in their trend reports

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

davefingerThomas Gold#11158111/10/03; 18:43:57

An ironically named scientist whom I think all here would benefit from a reading of his ideas on oil formation. He has written a book about it, which I have not had the opportunity to read yet, called The Deep Hot Biosphere.

This guy is most certainly no crackpot. Here is his CV:

In short, he theorizes that oil does not come from dead plant and animal material through a biological process.

Here's the original Wired article that made me take notice of him:

'World-class contrarian' indeed. Yet it appears as though he's been right more often than not.

Here's his homepage at Cornell, which has some additional info and references:

Interestingly, his Wikipedia entry (found at: ) has a reference at the bottom to another of my favorite 'back-burner-of-the-mind' items of interest - thermal depolymerization.

Another good article appears at:

Anyway, love to hear what you guys think about this guy and his theory. Certainly has sparked my imagination...

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")The dangers of Molson Gold#11158211/10/03; 18:53:57

Looks like the same POG pattern over Asia as Friday with subdued buying. The POG has a historical gap from the 1993 rally whereby at 393-395 gold it jumped to 402-405 and from there it jumped from 415-425. So we are seeing a heavy fight to keep it away from getting pressed up to the 395 level. We saw the paper gold shorting attacks in NY and how the physical London market held steady. The USD looks like it could go up but we have seen gold move up with a rising dollar in receint POG rallies. So what is inversive to gold that we can watch. Sinclair says the yen/USD exchange rate is the key now. If the BOJ decides to stop supporting the dollar then the dollar will come down. Then Americans buy more gold. If the BOJ supports the dollar too much and drops the yen, then the Japanese will buy gold. And the price of oil the POI from futures charts. It's right near 30 a barrel with upper channel resistance at like 32.50. The macropattern looks bullish in the long term and this past summer W. Buffet was going after natural resources properties. As the paper pump continues and money tries to find a safe home, the CRB index moves on up and it's proof of inflation and gold is the king commodity. Take Care- GR2
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")correction#11158311/10/03; 18:56:19

should work
Mr GreshamGR2#11158411/10/03; 19:26:17

What a treat to find you back here! Have you been lurking, or on a long excursion to fascinating realms?

Now all we need is EscapeTheMatrix, and -- searching dim memory, dagnabbit! names escape me, have to search my archives on other puter -- a few other brilliant old friends.

Think we're ready to run it this time, bro?

ZhishengTax Law Repatriation#11158511/10/03; 20:25:53

@Carl H

This much seems plausible to me from Sinclair's arguments: that there must be a considerable quantity of dollars that would be repatriated if the tax bill is passed---otherwise, why would the beneficiaries expend the time and money to lobby Congress and the White House for passage?

So the corporations involved will do business in dollars instead of other currencies, which, granted, would temporarily increase demand for dollars. If these dollars are returned to the US, this will inflate the available supply of money here, hopefully stimulate the economy, and help keep the feared deflation at bay. Which may help the re-election efforts of the Bush Administration.

But with the intransigence of the Fed on short term rates, it would also tend to increase the slope of the bond yield curve. And this I believe would frighten foreign holders of dollars even more, regarding the long term prosepective loss of buying power of those same dollars. And so more of those foreigners would buy a little more gold with those dollars as a hedge.

Liberty HeadQuestion For The Experts, Black Blade or ?#11158611/10/03; 20:59:52

There are many productive gold mines in the USA that have been mothballed for various reasons. I understand that no two mines are alike and there are innumerable technicalities involved in assessing feasibility.
However, I was wondering if anyone could make a learned guesstimate of what POG would entice say 25% of idled mines within the US back into action?
If it would help to narrow the scope some, I am considering a retirement home around Elko Nevada and I want a better understanding of the growth potential as it relates to mining activity.

Thank You

GoldiloxAfterHours Quotes#11158711/10/03; 22:33:16

Just to add to the confusion, the Dx and Gold Spot are both up at 10:30PM PST. They must both be Eagles fans!
Black BladeJust a Few Quick Comments#11158811/10/03; 22:42:20

@ Liberty Head

I am not aware of any mines that have really been US "mothballed" although some had closed due to declining reserves and rising production costs and restarting production for the limited reserves would likely be too costly. Also, starting a new mine (any mine) or even "restarting" old mines in the US is a regulatory nightmare. Existing mines may continue to explore for "satellite" deposits on mine property and some shelved exploration projects may now get a second look as the gold price rises. It is just easier to look outside the US for new production. I think that mining is a dying industry in the US much like domestic energy production and the lumber industry.

As far as a retirement home in Elko, Nevada is concerned there are a lot of empty houses so finding one should not be any problem as the mines are not really hiring many people these days. Although I would prefer looking at nearby Lamoille, Nevada, which I believe is much nicer, located at the foot of the north end of the Ruby Range (nice alpine area hidden from the outside world. The Spring Creek area is OK except it is ruled by an autocratic "home-owners association" that has given residents a lot of headaches. There is also the "Eagle Estates" (I think that's the name) in the hilly area near the new hospital and on five-acre lots in juniper-covered country. Anyway, that's my take.

@davefinger – Thomas Gold

Thomas Gold is a physics professor at Princeton (or was) and proponent of "abiogenic hydrocarbons". He believes that hydrocarbon potential exists deep in the earth's crust and was not formed by the decay of plant and animal matter. It is an interesting idea but as yet unproven and he based his observations on the possible existence of hydrocarbon on other planets within our solar system that are devoid of biologic activity. He did convince the Swedish government to sponsor a deep drilling project on the Siljan region of fractured intrusive rock that exhibited oil seeps around Siljan Lake. The drilling went to a depth of about 7 km (I believe), however, little evidence of deep-seated oil was found and much of that was probably from the drilling activity itself. It was found to have biologic indicators that he attributed to rising through the earth's crust and therefore being "contaminated". I remain a skeptic myself but then again "nothing ventured nothing gained". That's how science progresses by someone taking a chance on a theory or hypothesis and moving forward to prove/disprove it. The Russians did something similar with a deep drilling project on the Kola Peninsula but after a few km of depth they gave up as the geothermal gradient was high enough to melt drill bits and drill pipe. Again – no abiogenic hydrocarbons were found.

@ specie-man – Gold Uses

Recently in the news there was a couple of items about Gold use in medical procedures. I did not pick up on it entirely as I really wasn't paying close attention. Though apparently it had to do with time released drug delivery in cancer patients and another about nano-technology. Also, Gold is being considered for low temperature catalysts for building enviro-systems and in combination with platinum group metals in transportation. Still, the global population is growing much faster than the supply of Gold and every day there is less Gold per person than before.

I have a couple of days left on my projects for some clients and should return soon. I am not all that surprised by the continued strength in Gold and it should remain strong as the current account, trade, and budget deficits are really putting pressure on the Fed and the US dollar. The "smart money" is bailing out of the dollar and who can blame them? Inflationary pressures are building and the Fed is "caught between a rock and a hard place" as they can't let interest rates rise and yet at the same time to attract more foreign capital they need to raise rates. Definitely a good idea to have precious metals for portfolio insurance in this environment.

- Black Blade

SurvivorSpamming For Gold?#11158911/10/03; 22:43:47

My place of work received an email spamming from an on-line gold seller today. Actually, the spam was in the form of a request for the recipient to use the link provided in order to ". . .complete required customer information. . .".

Now, this is a sleazy way to market anything, and the site seems to be in the paper gold business only - but I find it fascinating that a gold marketing scheme has found its way into the mainstream of Internet spam.

A sign that the idea of gold is creeping into the public conscience?

- Survivor

GoldiloxBB#11159011/11/03; 01:57:03

Thanks for the input, Jon. Hurry back, as you are sorely missed. I loved your descriptions of the Nevada hills. My favorite is the lake areas in the mountains south of Carson. When I moved from VC to San Diego, the best part of the move was the drive down 395 through the Sierra Nevada range.
Remarx@BB: Thomas Gold#11159111/11/03; 02:21:19

Thomas Gold is actually here at Cornell University. I know some of his family. I am also a sceptic about his abiogenic hydrocarbons, but hope to see more research on the subject.
Remarx@WhiteRose, Belgian#11159211/11/03; 02:47:12

Have you considered that the US may already have effective control of the Saudi oil fields? The ties between the Bush and Saud families are very close. I am not certain that the current administration really wants a low POO. I have seen some analyses that show positive effects on the economy with a high POO. I think it is more likely that Venezuela and Iran will be the next targets of US covert/overt aggression because of their relative "non-compliance", and their flirtations with the Euro. (Some think, of course, that Venezuela already has been a target vis a vis the coup attempt.)

Cheers -r

Belgian@misetech#11159311/11/03; 03:21:22

Thanks for picking and posting the right new-stuff, Sir.
Finally, the WGC understood its superfluousness. A positive sign for the Gold-things to come, imo of course.

1 US$ Trillion Asian+EU (US-treasurious) reserves against 6 1/2 US$ Trillion of official US-Debt !!!
In other words...the planet outside the US is doing business with 1 Trillion in reserves that represent (backed by) 6 1/2 Trillion in (rising) debts !!! Let's call it...DEBT DRIVEN POLITICAL ECONOMY !

How much faster has (can) this debt to grow against the (slower) growth of reserves, before something catastrophic (dramatic change) must happen ? Is this question the decodation-translation of Randy's snippet of the mysterious Issing talk (message) ? US$ 5 1/2 more debt to add one (US$ 1) single US$ to the GDP !!!

Growing Debt is no problem when it is "covered" by an expanding economic activity. But if (less) expansion can only be obtained with (more) debt...
One can only hope that this can go on for as long as one stays on this planet. In french we say : Après nous, le déluge (let the deluge come after us).

Indeed, if and when for whatever reason, some of this US$ 1 Trillion reserves should have to be * used * might find out that these reserves only represent an unovercomeable debtberg. Don't throw your gold-reserves away, says the WAG !!! We (ECB/BIS) keep the POG as "unfavorable" as possibly can be AS TO NOT GUIDE YOU INTO THE TEMPTATION of using those gold-reserves to make more Debt !!!

This in sharp contrast with the power of the dollar-debt that wishes all dollar-reserve-holders to dispose off as much of their gold-reserves as possible as to condem them to REMAIN on the debt-dollar-system !!! Say hello and thanks to those International Intrigant bankers.

Things are rather simplier than one might percept ! Freegold is the smoothiest transition-tool that I can dream of. Freegold, at the right time, is not a killer, but a blessing ! A Free Gold Wealth Reserve Asset as the ultimate, flexible moving collateral.

NOT a fixed-anchored gold-standard but Gold Reserve Value that floats FREELY as to unmask the permanent confetti devaluation. As simple as can be...but ohhhhh so difficult for those who keep on wishing to "rule" (fool-infantilize-deresponsibilize) us, limitless. Game over, sooner rather than later.

Goldbug 1Hey Coin Guy! msg 111576#11159411/11/03; 04:19:48

Don't want to say much but you have obviously got me mixed up with someone else. You say "Fur Face who travels the outer spheres of the web boasting that gold is a barbarous relic not worthy of investment, not to mention any profit will be taken with the confiscation of gold" Where did you get that stuff from? Not from me.
Firstly I am a she not a he, and I am of quite advanced years. Fur Face is a seven year old black diabetic cat that is quite brilliant at picking race winners. He is also sometimes pressed into service to predict the timing and direction of gold moves. He has a 60% record of correct calls.
Anyway no problem, just wanted to set the record straight.
Coin Guy, I wish you may years of sucessful investing.
Its been 40.3degs here today (over 100F if you live in some backward part of the world that hasn't taken up decimal measurements) I am opening a bottle of cool wine and awaiting gold pushing above $390 soon after the NY opening.

Belgian@ Remarx#11159511/11/03; 04:53:44

With the 9/11 atrocity, a 3 decades' old chapter of many specific things, has been closed, imo Sir.
The dollar's management of the remaining oil-reserves cannot go on as it happened, before 9/11 ! Q. : What exactly is backing the planet's dollar-standard !? A. : Oil + US military force + US economy. Consider these 3 main dollar-pillars and analyse how these are changing, not for the better but for the worst.
- Oil reserves (and flow) : The euro challenge and 1,3 Billion moslims.
- Us military force : Increasingly to be challenged as well.
- US economy : Debt driven.

9/11 was the "creation" of the classical needed enemy to follow up on other previous "evils".

The houses of Saud have been "hired" (friendly) for the past decades. But can the remaining oil reserves be "bought" (manu militari)? Why is it that the bulk of the world's dramatic events are directly or indirectly, oil-related !? Oil, as one of the pillars of the dollar-standard.

Iran (its oil-reserves) have been agressed for already more than 30 years : The Shah period...Khomeiny + Saddam period...and now the nuclear thing !
With 9/11 and the WOT, the dollar's management of oil-control has taken a new dimension. How far are the US allies going to follow (agree on) this new management !?

There is a much higher goal at stake here : The US (the dollar) sees the chance of acquiring complete global supremacy since the USSR threath has almost faded away and the upcoming, fast rising, Chinese (+ satelites) dragon(s) must be contained...with nothing else than COMPLETE OIL CONTROL ! Same scenario as with Japan (previous part of a former axis-WWII)

In other words...Do the different owners of the remaining oil-reserves tolerate that the US (the dollar-!!!) + willing allies, is going to control "their" resources !?

Impossible to predict how the Saudi domino (or other oil dominos) will stand or fall ? Let the meaning of PNAC sink in and bet on the outcome of this. Altering willing and unwilling allies...economic realities...the imponderabilis of dramatic (nuclear-other) events...etc. How can we possibly predict all those things ? We can't !

But when one has detected the main stream of is one step in front of anticipation. 1,3 Billion chinese, the yellow danger, are in front of us all, relatively silent for the time being. Who is going to team up with who and for what reason ? It is in this context that the euro and dollar play their role.

There is NO oil alternative, at present and for the foreseeable future. And even if there was a suitable we want it to be applied !? We are no angels, but rather uncorrectable, ugly devils !!!

I have no passe-partout answer to your question (remark), Remarx. The Osama-myth will be "used"-"abused" for as long as it is practical and convenient in the evolvement of things. But when the global economy continues to detoriate, agression will increase and adversely affect the economy's chances of rebounding, genuinly. Classic viscious circle.
I see and smell a dark future and wish ardently that I have it completely WRONG !

misetichWill Investors Stampede Out of Mutual Funds?#11159611/11/03; 06:12:02


Investors have lived through a steady stream of financial mischief in recent years. But the mutual fund scandal is worse because fund managers have a fiduciary duty to put their investors' interests first.
Not anymore. And investors are noticing. In a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, which was taken just days before regulators moved against Putnam and was made public last week, 26 percent of fund investors said they were less likely to invest in funds because of the scandals. And 71 percent of respondents said they would "definitely or probably" move their money if their mutual fund companies came under investigation
Donald Christensen, a veteran of Wall Street, saw problems looming in mutual funds long ago. ......counted the history of scandals involving mutual funds and predicted that a new one would unfold by 2000
In past fund crises, he said, investors have taken quite a while to dump their shares. "In the 1970's, the peak of the withdrawals was not during the scandals, but in the aftermath of the scandals," he said. Back then, fund managers got into trouble by buying illiquid or highly risky securities. Redemptions hit and investors suffered huge losses.

A double whammy would be if the SM tanks and investors get a dosage of reality in the monthly Mutual Fund report - coupled with them learning their Mutual Fund Company defrauded in the past

Can it happen?

All On Board The Gold Bull Express

DummyANITokyo stock market entered into a new BEAR-Market.#11159711/11/03; 06:33:51

Nikkei225 ended at 10,207.04 points down 297.5. This level is below 10,219( Sep. 30,2003). And a new BEAR market is established from Nov. 11,2003.
The reasons are as follows.
1) Japanese election of Congress was ended at last Sunday(Nov. 09,2003). So that there are no needs to stimulate Tokyo stock market.
2) Puppet Fukui is keeping a destroy-Japan policy (decrease liquidity defined by Richard Werner: ref. url). So that a size of Japanese economy is shrinking very rapidly.
3) If in keeping a destroy-Japan policy, why Nikkei225 can be climbed over at 11,000 level ? Because a few hedge funds money from New York were poured into Tokyo SM, at least 20 trillion Yen, and a bubble SM were generated in Tokyo. But the hedge funds already sold out all their long positions, there are no fuels to stimulate Tokyo-SM.
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

misetichUS to voice concerns over Constitution#11159811/11/03; 06:45:20


According to The Sunday Times, US President George Bush will use a forthcoming visit to the UK to express American fears over the EU Constitution.
Although American officials concede that the debate on the Constitution is "probably none of our business", this comes at a time when EU-US relations are strained by trade disputes, disagreements over the US Iraq policy and NATO.

JUGHEADForeign exchange controls....and gold#11159911/11/03; 06:58:05

>>> I read more frequently about the potential for foreign exchange controls...ala Argentina, perhaps....should the dollar continue to wane...and maybe plummet, as our overseas contributers finally realize thier stash of dollars is a problem.....while I realize the impact it would have on the holdings of foreigners, central banks, does it mean to domestics, like us...and in particular to holders of physical gold....paper gold, mining stocks.......or in addition, to domestic owners of foreign bank accounts and physical holdings overseas...?...any thoughts you would be willing to share ?...thanks...Jughead
Cavan Manmisetich#11160011/11/03; 07:20:35

It might be a good use of time for the administration to read a copy of the US Constitution.
Clink!@Jughead re Exchange controls#11160111/11/03; 07:28:37

There is a significant difference between a country like Argentina and the US. No-one is forced to use Argentinian currency outside of Argentina. I'm sure that its trading partners keep a small amount to cover the current account, but that's about it. All significant contracts to and from Argentina will be in dollars (or euros ?).

Not so the dollar, for two reasons. Firstly, the world reserve currency is backed by the US. If this backing effectively goes away for all expatriated dollars, it immediately becomes worthless, crashing the world economic system. Secondly, the US needs $1M of foreign investment per minute to stay alive. Who is going to continue to supply that if there are going to be difficulties getting it back again ?


White RoseBelgium: remarks on European co-operation#11160211/11/03; 07:33:30

As I understand your remarks, the world and espcially Europe is trying to "fully co-operate" with the dollar system for as long as the dollar system exists. Once the dollar falls away, everybody wants to best position themselves for the post dollar world.

No player wants to be seen as doing anything that would deliberately be bringing down the whole system. Thus there are dozens of moves each with their own reasons, but which are part of this great game.

Yesterday, you posted the good news the the Europeans were committed to a low interest environment until the 3rd quarter of 2004. The justification is that this would breath enough life into the dollar system so that Bush could get re-elected. You said the consequences would be a slow and steady rise in the gold price was thus guarenteed.

As I am learning, each of these decisions have multiple interpretations. We hear so much about a gold price and an interest rate derivitive crisis that will come when gold prices rise to $400-$430 along with a rise in interest rates (it seems numerous American institutions have bet heavily on a low gold price and low interest rates).

Perhaps the European decision is to gently, but firmly, guide the gold price up to the point of American financial disaster.

A large part of this "great game" being played is for everyone not to appear to have any blame for the coming crisis.

I am increasingly interested in European "co-operation" with the Bush agenda. I think the Bush team had better watch their back.

Toolielease rates#11160311/11/03; 07:51:35

Would I be correct in assuming that a 1% jump in gold lease rates would raise the cost of hedgers? Would that make the carry trade unprofitable? Thanks in advance.
JUGHEADClink...dollar musings....#11160411/11/03; 07:52:19

>>>> While I didn't intend the argentina comparison to be a close scenario, I do wonder if the dollar slide accelerates to the point that it becomes a problen for our leaders, and if interest rate increases are still not effective in abating a shift out of dollars to euros, yen, or precious stuff......then I would have to believe that some measures, subtle, or not so subtle would take place.....something that would be restrictive, but not necessarily precipitating a world economic crash.....just trying to play out the various alternatives in my mind....Jughead
misetichWith China, India Building Trade Triumvirate With Brazil#11160511/11/03; 08:05:41


"We have the conviction that Brazil, India and China can become the biggest economic bloc in the world in the coming decades," said Yogeshwar Varma, India's consul in Sao Paulo.
Varma, flanked by Indian Ambassador Amitava Tripathi, said it's urgently necessary that this so-called G-3 bloc strengthen to reduce its "dependency on the countries that today control the rules of global trade - the U.S. and European Union (news - web sites)."
n the software sector, ten Indian companies recently formed joint ventures with Brazilian ones. Meanwhile, Brazil's government has instructed all ministries, agencies and state-run companies to start using inexpensive open- source software like Linux (news - web sites) instead of paying for costly licenses from the likes of Microsoft Corp. (NasdaqNM:MSFT - News) .

Much ado about nothing? Perhaps - however the message is clear, countries such as Brazil, India RESENT being dictated to by US and EU

The US would be the biggest loser if they're unable to patch up differences with Brazil and Argentina as their lofty ambition to create a North/South America free trade zone and eventually a dollarization of the two hemispheres

The GLOBAL REVOLT against US world supremacy continues. US continuosly UNDERESTIMATES the Anti-American feeling around the world.

The economic fallout of this UNDERESTIMATION is staggering.
The current spat with EU in both the political arena (see EU constitution post below) and economic (trade war, tariffs and EU asserting itself against companies such as Microsoft) does not bode for the Anglos and the dollar camp. The success enjoyed by the US in the past was achieved through the co-operation of their friendly allies the Europeans.

Tremendous resources are now being spend attempting to split EU through various means. Various deals, arm-twisting, $ giveaways (bribes) is underway by the US to win over countries such as Turkey, Poland etc.

However the US efforts are being countered by EU (France - Germany) pressure on those same countries - limiting EU much needed help for them

On the South America front - the alliance of Brazil and Argentina and their rebellion against US dicated terms puts ANOTHER nail in the coffin.

Elsewhere, Russia's threat to sell Oil in Euro's, and Iran not too far away from that position as well adds additional woes

The mismanagement of US foreign policy vs "terrorist" threat is becoming unamanageable in economic terms as billions of $ are being spend as well as overstretched militarily on too many fronts

Once again the underestimation of Anti-US deep rooted feelings in Muslim countries is taking a toll as US resources are being wasted unproductivily.

The "terror war" in not winnable, as the enemy is not a country thus harder to eliminate. On the contrary, the "successes" achieved by these so classified enemies makes them stronger as they achieve their goals being disruption and chaos.

The battle goes on daily. The US economy and US $ has a non-winnable fight on their hands as political actions overflow in economical ones

All On Aboard The Gold Bull Express

RemarxEurope/China/US Dollar Game#11160611/11/03; 08:18:01

I pretty much agree with your assessment, Belgian. I was speaking only of the short-term, in which I think Iran and Venezuela may be the first targets. How Europe reacts will be interesting. I just re-read 1984 this weekend. Perhaps I should be talking about Oceania, Eastasia and Eurasia. :^)
Clink!@ Jughead#11160711/11/03; 08:29:04

I know how you feel ! I have started to re-read the Goldtrail - I first read it in September of '02 according to the printout. There are many things which I remember being completely incomprehensible back then which now appear perfectly clear. However, there have been new developments taking place in the last couple of years, which FOA didn't take into account and may change the final outcome. It feels a little like in Asimov's Foundation trilogy where the folks are waiting for the (third ?) recording of Harry Seldon, only to find that history has not taken the calculated path because of an unpredictable mutation. But that's what this Forum is for !

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.An Invitation to Prospective Clients....#11160811/11/03; 08:55:26">News and Views
a nation of one...Posted in the interest of Public Safety...#11160911/11/03; 09:01:10

The story at the link tells of events which, in their
essential nature and character, constitute an open act of
war against the United States by those mortal enemies of
ours who employ the effects of finance and economics as
weapons in their perpetual attempts to destroy us. We knew
to expect this of course. And there is little doubt how it
will end. The World Trade Organization will be destroyed
by some means, or else it will metamorphose into a
different, less easily recognizable form. Either of these
events could happen in a flash, at one time or another.
But do not be fooled. It will not become a butterfly. And
the European Union will gradually lose its effectiveness
to the indigenous peoples of Europe. This may take a
hundred years, or even several hundred. Before that
starts, it would surprise me if the United States is
revived as a nation, in anything near to the form that we
so recently knew. (I am not in favor of its demise; I am
merely telling you the significance of the news.) The
reason for the probable outcome, as I seem so clearly to
see it, will most likely take the form of a lack of any
response in the degree or of the type required in
defeating such attacks. Our preferred and traditional
arteries of national accomplishment have now become too
brittle and corrupt to effectively adapt to the pragmatic
realities which the other nations of the world necessarily
present to us, and they are clogged with the deadly plaque
of the politics of selfish interests, along with other
scourges of corruption and abuse, which cling to the
artery walls like cholesterol to a heart disease patient,
waiting to come unglued, at which time our Institutions of
Public Failure and Confusion will become entirely cut off
from whatever ability our government may presently have to
realistically confront our would-be-mortal enemies.

As usual, while the world falls apart before our eyes,
gold could make the difference between a fortunate
personal survival and an unfortunate passage into an
unfamiliar world, or, worse, a measly existence in this
world, scrounging for food around America's old highways,
for example. But to benefit from this real potential
aspect of gold, you must have some. Therefore, if you were
me, you would get some, or, if you have some already,
you'd get more. Buy it here. I've done it. So can you.
It's highly recommended.

a nation of oneoh, the link...#11161011/11/03; 09:02:51

Sorry about that.
RemarxANOTHER/FOA Summary?#11161111/11/03; 09:03:05

Has anyone ever posted a succinct (say one or two page) summary of the ANOTHER/FOA trail postings? I know it is complex, but an ideal overview would have links to details in the messages. Just curious, since the amount of time & effort required is substantial. It might help folks to decide whether to read further.
Wky_WoodsmanA Salute to the Veterans#11161211/11/03; 09:08:47

A hearty salute to all the Armed Forces veterans among the table-round stalwarts.

I thank you for your service.


Belgian@White Rose#11161311/11/03; 09:18:02

Most, if not all, co-operations are "opportunistic". Even the ideological ones.
Apply this to the Gold-matters : Co-operation on Gold-containment for as long as it suits a majority (or ruling minority) to stay under the dollar-regime. That's why the dollar-block keeps on dividing those who evolve to more euro-consciousness. UK's anti euro stance.

This is part of the competing play between dollar and euro.
Remember that Freegold is not making sense under the present dollar-regime and that Freegold can only exist when there is that euro-gold-associating currency as to make it possible to freely switch from Gold to euro and vice versa, according to the general appreciation/evaluation of the euro's management on currency/price-stability.

I don't know if Trichet is going to try something spectacular as to influence the coming US elections ?
But I see Madeleine Albright and Clinton, lobbying here in Euroland.
The looming (EU-US) trade wars (tarifs) are also a pressure tool (Pascal Lamy), aimed at the Bush administration,imo. We are talking about $-€ billions if effective ( EU has WTO backing).

We must all realize that when the dollar confetti reserves start the goldrush ...the concept of Freegold and its associated €-currency must be "in place" and workable !!!
The right thing at the right "moment" !

In the mean time Gold's (price)revaluation can run up in anticipation and proportionate to the euro's succes or failier.

The euro is NOT in a hurry to replace the dollar-system !
The euro just has to stay "one" step in front of the dollar as to avoid been devored by the debt-lion ! This principle is the cause of confusion amongst many observers. think deep about the advantages (for the euro AND GOLD) of such a strategy.

Keep on posting, WR !

Belgian@White Rose#11161411/11/03; 09:47:16

Nobody wishes what you dramatically call an "American financial disaster" ! We are ALL co-responsible for having accepted and co-created the existing dollar-system !!!
But it simply has reached the end of its lifetime and the euro alternative has been architected, holding the advantage of the doubt !
This is not a weekend box match with a clear winner and loser, but a long evolving steady process.

Most observers wish to see and live through dramatic action. The sept.'99 POG spike was a spectacular move WITHOUT COLLATERAL DAMMAGE ! Let's keep it this way, FOR THE SAKE OF ALL UF US.

Indeed WR, the euro doesn't want to have the reputation of a dollar-terminator, but rather the genuine authority of a stable and reliable currency within an associated new Freegold market ! The new euro-way of proceeding after 150 years of very bad, destructive behavor !!! The national hymne of Euroland is...All men should be brothers ! Much less "confrontation" and much more "consultation".
Far from perfect but at least a new model on wich we try to comply as good as possible.

The euro must give evidence of superior stability-reliability in the coming storms. Remember that the euro recovered asap from the initial brutal dollar attack that brought it down more than 30% against the dollar !!! Think about this as evidence for what I'm saying (personal opinion).

adminNews & Views#11161511/11/03; 09:53:12


You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

steadyhot air#11161611/11/03; 11:28:42

400 just a huff & puff away !
geRemarx msg#: 111611 - An Impressionist's View of A/FOA #11161711/11/03; 11:32:39

This is not the scientific abstract requested, but an impressionist's view.

In the early "Kitco" days, ANOTHER warned that all paper would burn. He explained the dollar float and said that the spark that would start the fire would be Saudi Arabia, demanding gold payment for oil. ANOTHER hinted that the current gold market is a two-tier market! One market for individuals trading small amounts of gold and one market for the Central Banks. At the Inter-Central_Bank market, he claimed that gold price is already at 3000-6000 dollars per ounce. He even had a rather attractive illustration (which I cannot reproduce here from memory), comparing available numbers from LBMA & COMEX and supporting his thesis. In those days, there was also a poster named "Big Trader", who was later hinted to be (a representative of) Chinese Central Bank.

In mid 1999, Aristotle wrote a summary of A/FOA thesis, possibly coming close to what you request.
At that time, he was mentioning "past sound money days", and disliked "modern attempts to centrally manage the economy". "Gold is, in fact, Money, while the dollar and others are merely currencies--an importance difference!", he said.

After 1999, they became Euro-enthusiasts. The urgency and "fire warnings" faded. A more gradualist approach was taken. Then came the Free Gold and "gold is wealth not money" approach.

Best Regard,
An Impressionist

7nomadsSomething major from page 12#11161811/11/03; 12:07:24

I read a very interesting post yesterday on USAGOLD here. The writer Caradoc summed up an Arab worldview which puts everyone against them. After yesterday's news of:

GI Kills Head of Council in Baghdad Slum,

From the actical it seemed our men over there fulfilled their duties. Did Mr. Kaabi perform a sucidal act by forcing his right to drive into the compound. Probably by western standards. Of course one could say that he would rather die that be humiliated.

In effect, Arabs have very little evidence to change how they think others feel about them.

Of course Arabs and goldbugs agree on gold. I shook hands with an Arab (Christian) and couldn't help but notice his ring that looked like it was atleast an ounce and a half. I asked him about it and he said it was a gift from his father. He seems rather proud of it. I was impressed.

Of course Muslim men don't wear gold. They do put it on their women though. It isn't uncommon to see a woman wearing a kilo of it at a celebration.

steadyaristotle?#11161911/11/03; 13:39:01

is this true?

In mid 1999, Aristotle wrote a summary of A/FOA thesis, possibly coming close to what you request.
At that time, he was mentioning "past sound money days", and disliked "modern attempts to centrally manage the economy". "Gold is, in fact, Money, while the dollar and others are merely currencies--an importance difference!", he said.

gold is money? what the heck you just got doner telling me it was property but in the archives you say its money? now im confused again or did your views change after much deliberation. just like mine are ? what the deal can u elaborate on the discrepencies on one hand you tell me gold is property in fact you threw in the towel after i went with honest money, but now this surfaces, no no aristotle im not dising you im just trying to clarify this slippery slooppe im on. is gold money or is it property? your opinion i respect. i just want to know which one you belive in now>

GoldiloxGold pushes up in slow trade, trapped in ranges#11162011/11/03; 13:40:10

LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Gold moved up in sluggish, thin trade on Tuesday, with the market
making half-hearted attempts to sustain a rise above $388.00 an ounce, but dealers said a spike up towards seven-year highs scored recently could be on the cards soon. Traders said activity was quiet due to Veterans' Day holiday in the United States. The precious metal has garnered support in its safe-haven guise this week from a deadly weekend bombing in Saudi Arabia. A weaker dollar and stocks, along with higher oil prices have also helped
investor flows into gold recently. Spot gold (XAU=) was quoted at $388.15/388.85 an ounce by 1601 GMT, after hitting a high
of $389.00 earlier. That also compared with $386.00/386.75 quoted in New York late on Monday. Japanese buyers were attracted to the market during Asian trade after the yen (JPY=) matched a three-year high at 107.85 against the dollar.

Traders noted buying from a major investment bank in European trading, which it then sold back, leaving gold flat in the morning before a recovering euro took the market up within fairly
narrow ranges. "The market seems to be trading its range between 386.00 and the today's high at $389.00
-- we're at the upper end of it now. Things are ebbing and flowing in preparation to go up I think," said Peter Hillyard, head of metals sales at ANZ Bank.

Goldilox: The Japanese are using strong YEN numbers to accumulate shiny! Even Euroland bankers are watching for a test of $400. I hope they're right!!!

GoldiloxMoney or Property?#11162111/11/03; 13:43:08

@Steady, Ari-

Is it floor wax or a dessert topping? Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Old YellerThe Euro,not ready yet for prime time#11162211/11/03; 14:31:03

The dollar,however'should be booed off the stage.

In the meantime,there's always sanctuary in the real money.

Cavan ManThe Economic Turnaround turns around?#11162411/11/03; 15:21:59

Ford Motor Sweetens Incentives on F-150 Pickup Truck (Update5)
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co. increased discounts on the 2004 F-150 pickup truck, one of its most profitable vehicles, two months after introducing a version that was supposed to reduce the need for incentives that erode earnings.

The world's second-largest automaker by sales cut loan rates on the new F-150 pickup truck to as low as 0.9 percent and will offer rebates to buyers who switch from other brands.

Mr GreshamSlow news day?#11162511/11/03; 15:24:05

A remembrance linked above, of what actual warriors, who didn't get to make speeches, or collect approval ratings, have fought for.

And Soros -- offering million$ to defeat Bush -- damned lib'rals at it again! (Rightwingers take their millionaires for granted. Hey, what's a monopoly about, anyway!)

(My conspiratorial side, pushing aside my sympatico side, digs back and wonders "Now, isn't Soros one of those Euro guys? Front for some int'l banking entities? Is Bush going to end up face down in one of the giants' footsteps?")

"GI Kills Head of Council in Baghdad Slum " (7nomads link to it below)-- does something about "destroying the village in order to save it" pop into mind here? Anyway, the tipping point of governing by local post-Saddam consent is slipping out of view here, window of opportunity -- if it was there -- vanishing into exchanges of gunfire.

Did anyone else see the Tommy Lee Jones, Samuel L Jackson "Rules of Engagement" 2000 film about US marines under fire slaughtering a crowd of Arabs? Dead ahead in real life.

Remarx: I've thought the same thing -- the 2-page summary of A/FOA, from a current perspective. Perhaps a work-in-progress on one of Randy's blackboard pages? With appended commentary from us following it? And yes, the possibility that we might be following an old trail, instead of an updated one we missed the new markings to, even while celebrating the prescience of those two sages' early alarm to the Dollar's timeline.

Misetich: Brazil, China, India -- if I was a US young'un prospecting for future wealth in world trade, I'd haul out my backpack and head for those 3 shores with an entrepreneurial gleam in my eye. (Brazil last, of course, might not make it past the beach in Rio.)

Now, off to dig up Caradoc's post yesterday on Arab worldviews.

And then, proudly echoing Black Blade's years of inspiration -- OFF TO THE GYM! I find I've dropped 20-40 pounds of lifting capacity on the machines since 10 years ago when I entered my latest fitness-romance-marriage cycle. Sheesh! Scary, if I wasn't on the way to getting it back. I didn't realize what I had back then, and threw it away carelessly. With aging, the need for vigilant pursuit of health is greater. And it's cheaper, much cheaper, than doctors and MRIs, etc. LIVE TO ENJOY YOUR WEALTH!

specie-manPredictions (ANOTHER/FOA Summary?)#11162611/11/03; 15:28:48

A while back, I posted my take on the writings of Another/FOA - an essay on where we've been, where we are, and where we are going. A bit of pure "what if" speculation. Here is the newly-edited (but basically the same) version:

Gold Price Countdown - the Fall of 2005
A speculation by "specie-man" - 10 November, 2003

In 1997, a mysterious individual began a series of anonymous postings on gold-related internet bulletin boards. This person, and their associate, seemed to have inside knowledge of world gold dealings. The information they relayed indicated, in a somewhat cryptic way, that there were two completely different gold markets in existence.

One of those markets is the paper gold market that we all see (COMEX) - a market who's hidden purpose is to suppress the price of gold and to generally manipulate the market in favor of commercial (short) entities, at the expense of speculative (long) entities.

The other hidden market was larger, and traded in physical gold only - at prices far higher than the paper gold market. As the theory goes, this market was the vehicle for transferring large quantities of gold to rich oil-producing countries. This arrangement was secretly agreed upon by banks and governments, so that in return, the price of oil (as measured in US dollars) would remain stable even during the economic boom years of the late 1990s. This was at the core of the so-called "strong dollar policy", which the US Government frequently mentions but never seems to be able to explain.

The two markets worked together such that the paper gold market would effectively siphon off world gold supply and production at reduced prices, and deliver it to the secondary "hidden" market at a profit. Why would the large buyers acquire gold on this hidden market, rather than buying contracts for future delivery for lower prices in the paper market ? Because it would have been impossible to purchase the desired quantities of physical metal on the limited paper market, and any attempt to do so would send the price of gold much higher on both markets, possibly destroying the paper market and ending the price suppression of gold. This would cut off their supply of relatively cheap gold. Perhaps the intentions of these major buyers are to first obtain large quantities of gold, and then go to the paper market to drive up the price.

The individuals responsible for bringing this information to light predicted that at some point, the world price of gold would be revised sharply higher (by orders of magnitude) in conjunction with a move by oil-producing nations to officially reduce their intake of US dollars and increase their intake of other currencies and gold. This monstrous gold price increase would signal the beginning of a new world order. That prediction was made around 1998, possibly to occur in the 1998-1999 time frame.

These individuals correctly predicted a badly-faltering stock market and economic malaise. But now, four years later, their predictions about a rapid gold re-pricing event have not taken place. Gold has increased in price significantly in the last four years, but the rise has been relatively gradual. Gold bugs are still waiting for that big event. Will it come and, if so, when ?

Before any major gold price upheaval (increase) can occur, certain conditions must first exist. Some have already occurred, and others are developing. Watching the progress of these conditions will be like watching a rocket launch count-down ! Those who are watching will know when their last chance will be to jump on board before lift off. Here is the count-down as towards an explosion in the price of gold (as a result of a crashing US Dollar):

12. Rapid expansion of world-wide credit (debt).

11. Stock market declines.

10. US government, state/local governments, corporations, and households go much deeper in debt.

9. US trade deficit expands relentlessly.

8. The US dollar starts declining in value relative to other world currencies.

7. Long-term interest rates increase relative to short-term interest rates, bond market declines.

6. Housing prices level-off and start declining in some areas.

5. Other (Asian) countries counter the falling US dollar by working to devalue their own currencies.

4. Gold starts rising in price relative to all major world currencies, including the Swiss Franc.

<===== WE ARE HERE !

Inflation/stagflation starts taking hold in Japan, China, and other countries that have a large trade surplus with the US. Bad debts are monetized en-masse (paid off by "printing" large quantities of the local currencies). This is highly inflationary. To forestall hyper-inflation, Asian central banks will be forced to cash in some of their dollar reserves to bail out large debtors (commercial banks, etc.). This will bring an end to the "strong dollar" policies of those governments. Japan, for example, will no longer print and dump as much Yen on the market and buy dollars to weaken the Yen relative to the Dollar.

Consumption in foreign (especially Asian) economies starts growing more rapidly and oil-producing nations realize that they will no longer have to rely as much on the US market to sell their oil. At that point they won't have to worry about how much oil the US consumes (or how much a barrel of oil costs in US dollars). Due to the world-wide glut of declining-value US dollars, and a revulsion for US foreign policies, some oil-producing nations begin switching their official oil pricing currency from US dollars to another currency and/or gold.

The paper gold market (COMEX) shows a large increase in speculative long positions. The long speculators have been trounced many times over the years by the commercial (short) traders. This time, however, the ranks of the long speculators will grow and grow. They will hold firm in the face of the commercial shorting onslaught, as if being commanded by General Stonewall Jackson himself. The commercial shorts will break and run as people world-wide attempt to take delivery of gold. Some major financial institutions will fail as a result.

0. Blast-Off !
Foreign countries no longer have a need for the excessive amounts of US dollar assets (US Treasury bonds) that they hold because it becomes increasingly difficult to purchase oil (and/or gold) with them. Foreign governments do not buy and hold US Treasury bonds out of the goodness of their hearts. The second that they no longer have the need or ability to hold and acquire those assets, or the instant they perceive that their ability to exchange them for something useful is diminishing, they will dump them for something else. A world-wide "crash" in the US dollar will result, leading to a world-wide revulsion of anything and everything US dollar, much higher US interest rates, a severe case of hyper-"stagflation", and higher prices for all tangible assets. The derivative pyramid will crumble. The US dollar will become the "laughing stock" of world currencies - akin to some of the weak currencies of the Central American and South American regions. All this occurs just as the first wave of American "baby doomers" are scheduled to retire. Life will go on in the US and it won't be all bad, but it will be very different and difficult.

Right now, the countdown is at 3 and counting. Many of these events have been (and will be) occurring concurrently. What is still lacking is significant world-wide wage inflation (but world-wide commodity prices are now escalating). When you hear the phrase "wages are increasing to keep up with inflation", you will know that the time is very close. Current indications are that the final prerequisites for a blast-off in the gold price are forming. Hints of inflation in Japan, commodities, and elsewhere are starting to appear, as is talk about doing something about the bad debts in Japan, and bad debts rapidly increasing in China. The US Federal Reserve will aggressively fight any significant downturns in real estate prices. They will do anything, even drop cash from helicopters, to prevent consumers from defaulting on their mortgages en masse. The alternative is just to catastrophic.

The COMEX open interest in gold is now increasing. Battles between the commercials (short) and the speculators (long) have usually ended in favor of the commercial traders. This time, it will end in a stalemate - a moral victory for the longs. The day when the longs totally rout the commercial shorts is coming fairly soon.

History is riddled with unfulfilled predictions of gold's price soaring (and collapsing). Gold is heating up now. But realistically, how long might it be before the price explodes rapidly upwards in an economic upheaval of epic proportions ? That is hard to say. The old saying definitely applies here: "markets always do WHAT they are supposed to, but never WHEN they are supposed to". Such drastic economic realignments are always fought against by governments, and they always take longer than expected.

Should all the current COMEX longs hold firm and a quantity of them demand physical delivery, then the countdown could go to blast-off immediately. Other "wild-card" events (war, terrorist attack, major California earthquake, etc.) could ignite the rocket as well. The countdown process started in the mid 1990s and it should last about ten years. The closer the countdown gets to zero, the faster it will tick. Gold will continue to increase in price during the remainder of the countdown. ! Lacking any unexpected triggers, the countdown will finish during the Fall of 2005.

specie-manRE: Slow news day?#11162711/11/03; 15:33:13

>>> "Is Bush going to end up face down
>>> in one of the giants' footsteps ?"

Now that was a good one !

ProtossBelgian#11162811/11/03; 15:47:02

Can't help but notice your ever growing predictions and opinions over the last few weeks. I haven't decided if this is a good thing or a bad thing, perhaps neither.

You mentioned the possibility/probability of WWIII. Perhaps you could categorize this numerically? As a percentage of chance, let's say.

In recent days there are grandiose discussions of America's wishes to secure Saudi's oil. Has Iraq's oil been secured now? Time to move on/forward?

I have been informed by my son that my quest for gold is honorable but it is on the wrong path. Apparently his university lectures have decided that control/access/ownership etc. of remaining oil reserves will dictate the outcome of economies/currencies/politics/etc., etc. Gold's future is merely a 'derivative' (sorry about this poor choice of the word) of the 'oil outcome'.

If this is all true, or mostly all true, then I wish to discuss with you my points raised thusfar being:

b)outcome of oil, specifically America's quest for ME oil

Thank you.

CometoseSpecie Man Post 111626#11162911/11/03; 16:00:15

thank you for this synthesis ..........
and Parameter to countdown

a nation of one,,,#11163011/11/03; 16:03:58

I too think there is reason to believe many nations are
moving toward a large war. I warned my relatives of this
ten years ago. And also of hyperinflation. The signs were
apparent then, and have increased since. It is happening
extremely slowly, but with inevitability, like a glacier.

R PowellSpecie-man#11163111/11/03; 18:13:20

Thanks for an understandable, straight forward synopsis of an ackward, non-transparent, figure-it-out-if-you-can collection of thoughts.

Remarx@ge, specie-man, Mr. Gresham#11163211/11/03; 18:45:51

Thank you! If the article by specie-man and the "impression" by ge have not already been nominated for the HOF, I would like to do so. They are both excellent in their own ways at providing an overview -- something I can pass on to friends and family.

Thanks indirectly to Aristotle, too, for his already existing article -which I intend to look up tonight. And to Mr. Gresham for saying what I wanted to say better.

Cheers -r

Aristotlesteady, ge.... uggggggh.#11163311/11/03; 19:14:17

Good grief, that post old post of mine is a real train wreck, isn't it?

The primary problem is I was on my own steep communication learning curve at the time and failed utterly to convey some importance nuances with my very sloppy or imprecise use (or should I say misuse) of words. Fortunately the sentiment remains valid, but only if you know how to crack my code. The problem was that I was more focused on the Gold mechanics, and treated the monetary side of the issue rather shabbily.

You know, it probably wouldn't be too hard for me to offer an edited/wordsmithed version that employs consistent terms with my latest usage especially with respect to currency vs money vs wealth/property. In fact, it was partly to redress the utter mess I had made with sloppy syntax in that June/July 1999 post that just half-a-year later I was pursuaded to lay out what became my February 2000 tome on the "Proper role of Gold in the Monetary System."

I'm not promising that that second piece would stand up perfectly under the closer scrutiny I could give it armed with my present vocabulary, but I guarantee the syntax found there holds up more consistently well than in the first piece.

Maybe I can get everyone's permission to brush that one up, too. Randy willing, I should say. Sheeeeeesh..... I dunno what I might be getting myself into. Those were looooooooong. I don't think I've read them through since they were authored, but seeing the excepts you provided made me shudder to the point that I can't imagine leaving them as is; i.e., trainwreck! The UNDERLYING messages remain well and good, but the messenger (me) sure garbled his task. Let that be a lesson to everyone -- never send a lightweight in to do the heavy lifting. That said, I probably owe it to someone/everyone to decode that pile of goo into words that make sense to TODAY's enlightened reader. Basically, to render it into state of the art terminology would be consistent with my post of October 14th.

Can do. Or not.

Gold. Get you some. (Wealth/Property) --- Aristotle

GoldendomePatts to the back.#11163411/11/03; 19:39:48

Specie-man: Nice job on your analysis. We'll all be watching the fuse.

Belgian: Continued informative posts. "Now this Gold going to drive the value or quantity of them--or vise/versa, eventually?

Cavan ManAristotle......#11163511/11/03; 19:49:37

There definitely does seem (to me anyway) to be an evolution in THOUGHTS beginning with the mysterious ANOTHER and ending with Sir Douglas. Enroute to who knows where, a certian "Aristotle" did appear and play a supporting role. While respecting your commentary on the gold market, I still believe there to be more than one "Aristotle". I have stated this opinion on more than one occasion.

Anyway, I do find the evolution curious as pointed out (perhaps unwittingly) by I believe a certain "ge". What began as a gold for oil diatribe has culminated in Euro for one and Euro for all; gold is for saving one's receivables for labor inputs ad infinitum. While I do own both physical gold and Euro in sizable quantities, I wonder about the agendas of all who seem to be, "in the know" or at the very least who represent an absolutist and unitary view of the gold market's peculiar dynamics.

We do live in interesting times and monetary history is definitely being written. However, my association with the subjects de jeur at this table have made me too much the cynic and skeptic to ever (again) throw my lot in with ANOTHER (im) poster.

Kind regards and good luck to you...CM

Cavan ManHistory repeating itself (again)#11163611/11/03; 20:25:58

Good Morning Baghdad

General Vows to Intensify U.S. Response to Attackers

Published: November 12, 2003

BAGHDAD, Iraq, Nov. 11 — Stung by the deaths of nearly 40 American soldiers over the past 10 days, the top American military commander in Iraq spoke of a "turning point" in the conflict on Tuesday and outlined a new get-tough approach to combat operations in areas north and west of Baghdad, strongholds for loyalists of Saddam Hussein.

"The longer you look back, the farther you can look ahead"

Winston Spencer Churchill
(WC was a practical genius and a decorated veteran of Afghan, Egyptian and South African campaigns; unlike current "leaders" who shall remain anonymous)

steadyproperty. uhumm uh maybe money T0ooooooooooo#11163811/11/03; 20:32:06

aristotle . no that post istn a train wreck. Rather it is a golden beacon.
a beacon to every individual to think it thru , to clarify for themselvs as to what is going on.that what you think today may not actually be the truth and what you know next week may be a lil closer or a lil farther its an evolving thing. someone , maybe you, said the more you read the more you understand. If you can do it then i can do it t00. clarify it that is. Belive me if i can do it anyone on planet earth can do it as well.

gold get you sum condensed property today.
$ 2

a nation of onepog#11163911/11/03; 21:11:39

I find this simply incredible. Gold is just sitting there
like a relaxing duck, waiting for the dawn. The water's
calm, and when light comes, he will fly up into the sky
like that spiritual lark which even ballerinas dream of.

Unless of course it takes its habitual turn which I am
sure you have noticed, namely, its obstreperous tendency
to follow that path whose future shape defies all prediction.

But hey, you can't blame it. Some of us are like that.

Goldendome@nation---The relaxing duck market.#11164011/11/03; 22:54:33

Sir Nation: Gold is trapped in a meandering oscillation between increasingly higher support lows and recent consistent resistant highs. The market (futures) seems in the hands of those speculators with no compelling desire for this market and they are therefor content to take profits as gold repeatedly retraces it's well-worn and oft-trod path between the recent $377 lows and stubborn $392 ceiling.

Physical demand seems to be improving and moving the floor higher. However, we tend to buy the dips rather than to chase the rallies, therefor, we may need an "event" to give the commitment needed to long term buyers in the speculative market; and the momentum needed to blast through that $392-395 area.

The "event" could be of financial or political nature and could happen at any time, anywhere. Turning gold more toward a monetary safe-haven and away from the short term commodity play-thing of the speculators.


Druid(No Subject)#11164111/11/03; 23:16:29


"I often receive emails asking for my views on the US stock market, per se, and my response rarely engenders enthusiasm. Why, I ask, do you want to focus on an item denominated in an extremely volatile variable, the US$. Those who focus on the stock market, per se, tend to misread the advances in the 30s and 70s as true, when they seem to me more a function of currency debasement. Thus my fetish for viewing the equity market in a world of unanchored money in terms of Gold. As today's graph depicts, in terms of Gold, the equity market rally of 2003 looks far less impressive.

Another reason for my focus on commodity convertibility in monetary analysis lies in my efforts to strip away the commercial effects on inflation indices. Leaving aside the more technical complaints of hedonic adjustments, the more I think about the composition of the CPI, the more it seems to be obfuscatory than clarifying. In the world of stable vs. the US$ commodity prices that prevailed from 1981-1999, the gentle rise in the CPI over that period was, to me at least, more representative of the rise in corporate profits than inflation. A populace conditioned to accept small doses of inflation wasn't concerned with annual 2-3% losses in purchasing power."

Druid: If "King Dollar" is on fire, I hate to imagine the outcome of those instruments denominated in them. Also, Japan's "POLITICAL WILL" appears to be changing. Could we actually be at the initial stages of a bank write down for those that need to go under?

BelgianRe : Protoss/Goldendome#11164211/12/03; 01:30:27

Protoss msg#111628: I'm not in the predictions business, Sir. Only communicating ideas,reflections, suggestions and my personal opinions as to have an "exchange" of views and insights in constructive debate. To learn and develop.

WWIII, is imo, already taking place. An unknown (unreported) amount of people are dying, daily, everywhere, everyday. I strongly suspect a "nuclear" accident, again. This, to finalize the globalizing (attritional) war for oil. Hiroshima/Nagasaki all over again !? Needles to say, that I hope, it want materialize !

Your son has it right about the evolving oil matters, but he may have it completely wrong on the final outcome for Gold !!!

It is NOT only America's quest for oil, but the world's quest for the future of the remaining reserves. This war on/for oil brings a lot of other conflicts (religious-territorial-economic-ideological-etc...) to the surface and make the original oil/currency/powerstruggles, picture, opaque.
The list is endless and growing.China, N.Korea, India/Pakistan, Russia, Middle East...etc

My Hopes are: That the global economy is NOT collapsing and global common sense wishes to prevail.
Recent example : Strong EU delegation (UK-included) took initiatives on the Iran nuclear matters. Completely ridiculed by the US ! Evidence for continued polarization (indirectly $-€), regardless of having it right or wrong.

The developping fight for oil-control (price-flow-availability-ownership) is promoting itself to the center of the growing disputes. And, right or wrong, I do associate this with the ending of the dollar's lifetime.

I have not the slightiest idea on the final outcome on this. Simply hoping that we can get over it without dramatic, cruel solutions. That's all, Protoss. What's your prognostication ? TIA.

Goldendome (nice handle) : Gold and the euro are at each others' service. The International Monetary System evolves towards another "standard" experiment. Freegold !
If and when the euro should succeed in replacing the dollar as reserve-currency...more euro should have more stability, through the Freegold concept. Growing amounts of Physical Gold Wealth Reserve Asset in EURO, freely fluctuating in value against all currencies, as a new modern, flexible standard. In and out of Gold ...Your Gold and its value, will tell each and everyone of us, exactly, how wealthy we really are. Your wealth, today, is measured in worthless confetti. Because all confetti is NOT Gold associated anymore. We are all on the virtual value of the dollar...dollar-debt-derivatives.

FreeGold needs an associated currency ! It was the dollar might be the euro, sooner or later. A shift from backed by Gold to "associated" with Gold. Not the confetti in front, but FREEGOLD ! And for the next 2 generations, oil will become increasingly as important as Gold, because of its depletion and no replacing alternatives for the immediate future.

In other words...BACK TO THE RECOGNITION OF THE REAL BASIC VALUES on wich we can expand soundly !!!

BelgianOil-dollar#11164311/12/03; 03:56:06

The importance of Iranian oil to Japan is already well documented. No need to expand on this.
But, todays statistics reveal that China's crude oil imports from SAUDI ARABIA are increasing by 32% for '03 !!!
Is this message clear, fellow forumers ? Thoughts ?

BelgianIraq#11164411/12/03; 04:17:40

12 Italians murdered ! How will the willing partners of the coalition react ? Pull back and leave the US on its own ?
This is my fear and reason why I suspect that something very stupid might happen.
Coincidently, Arafat states his recognition of the state of Israel !?

Socrates964Euro/SpecieMan/Gold Stocks#11164511/12/03; 04:54:44

a) IMHO, we have the signal that the dollar is about to start another downleg - E1 > $1.16. Very gold bullish!

b) SpecieMan - I agree that all your points are symptoms of an insane credit boom centered on the US, but think we are much further along than point 3, since we already have heavy personal/state debt in the US, a burgeoning US trade deficit, a steep yield curve and plenty of evidence of peaking real estate prices - take London, for example. REaltors will never post the true prices but I know from friends who are trying to sell that the true transaction prices in the upmarket areas are 10-15% below the advertised prices.

As for the Asian players: a) it's not long since the Yen was at 116 and the long bond at 116. Now both are at 108. Do the math and in Yen terms, the Japanese investor in Treasuries has taken a 13% haircut in 3-4 months. Ouch! The Japanese government may well swallow this loss as the cost of continuing to do business with the US - but the Japanese private investor? - I don't think so!

b) all the evidence suggests that the Chinese are buying commodities like there's no tomorrow. After all, why risk a diplomatic incident by dumping your reserves in New York, when you can offload them onto gullible 3rd world countries who will sell you what you really need. Going back to the point about the formation of the Brazil/RSA/India axis - there is a weak link in the argument because at least the Brazilian elites still believe that the greenback is a hard currency.

Hence you're right that the demise of the dollar will manifest itself in global commodity inflation. It is already happening I just think that the US is becoming like the British or Austro-Hungarian Empire. Everyone else is incensed by the arrogance of its leaders but no-one wants to see it disappear because they're afraid of what comes next.

The Chinese must be highly amused at this all since they have a strong currency waiting in the wings (the Yuan) but their trading partners would rather be paid in a weak currency (the greenback) because it has strong 'brand recognition'. In this sense, Sir Alan wasn't joking about the $ being a 'strong' currency.

Having spent most of my life living with crappy currencies, however, I don't think that the dollar is going to disappear anytime soon. It will merely lose its utility as a store of value and will serve only as a means of exchange. Look at the steady but ultimately huge decline in sterling in the post-war period which was eventually halted by relatively sound economic policies and North Sea oil (although this halt may turn out to have been a 20-30 year interlude).

c) I know that this is a gold forum and not a gold stock forum, but there is an important point to be made about LeMet Café's piece about Randgold wanting to go after Golden Star/IAM etc. I think that we are looking at a period of substantial outperformance of gold stocks re Gold because the only way for the larger miners to grow is through M&A (in this sense gold stocks are better than dot coms - it is as if Microsoft had shut down all its R&D and had no internal product pipeline to grow earnings).

The inference is clear - we are on the verge of a paper-financed M&A boom in which absolute share prices will become irrelevant. It may well be that this is what ends the Cabal's manipulation of gold, since natural selection will no doubt work within investment banks, giving a selective advantage to the corporate financiers who are generating huge fee income from such deals over the bank's prop traders who are throwing money into a black hole by trying to keep POG down.

Evidently, this stock boom has a sell-by date on it, since by the time we get to $600 gold, the money will be pouring into overvalued majors that have no more earnings leverage to POG or into incredibly flaky juniors with terrible grades. At this point, it will be better to hold bullion itself.

AristotleCavan Man, Ari-Evolution has an easy explanation#11164611/12/03; 04:58:55

There's no illusion at all and your mind isn't deceiving you. I certainly am *NOT* the same man you met once upon a long time ago!!

Each day, I lay down to my evening rest an improvement over the man who awoke that morning. It's a Growth thing, and nothing to be ashamed of. Plateaus are but campsites on the overall climb to the pinnacle, so you shouldn't fault me for not taking up a permanent address.

Gold and Growth. Got me some. --- Ari

TateWhen, when,when???#11164711/12/03; 06:16:52

The key to demise of US dollar is Asian economies. When they slow, central banks start to unload US assets. What will make them slow down? US protectionism, which is now being constructed in US congress. I think Americans reaching upper limit of pain threshold for this to happen.
Go gold.

MKAri, Cavan Man, All. . .#11164811/12/03; 06:17:44

If we do not evolve in our thinking, then what is the purpose of this forum? To throw words to the wind?
a nation of oneto Goldendome (11/11/03; 22:54:33MT - msg#: 111640)#11164911/12/03; 07:19:03

It is interesting that markets can be described in so many
ways. As someone interested in language, I find the
explanations and metaphors that marketeers use to be
revealing -and very constrictive- in their nature. While
their descriptions do seem to hold a kind of harmony with
market events in a reflective sense, they seem often to
forget that the words people use affect people's behavior,
both individually and especially in groups, and there
seems to me to be a real need for a better handling of the
abstract ideas that are used in verbal expressions
concerning markets. By making the terminology less
explanatory and more accurately descriptive, with regard
to the movements of prices and other factors, underlying
truths about markets could be more easily discovered and
the overall picture could be made more real. The verbal
elements used in talking about market behavior would
benefit from being broadened to include concepts which, so
far, have remained unverbalized, though they have been
perceived and many of them apparently have been
comprhended. This is probably the way a bureaucrat would
say it. But I was a bureaucrat. Maybe this is better: By
using more carefully conceived terms to describe markets,
market behavior would become better understood.

Every writer finds out sooner or later that it is by means
of the process of forming our thoughts most accurately
into words that we come to discover what the truth is and
manifest it into the world and in our lives. It isn't the
only way. But it is one of the best ways I've found.

Paper AvalancheThe battle royale commences at 390#11165011/12/03; 07:21:07

Momentum builds.


seekerSilver Bullet#11165111/12/03; 07:45:25

Silver is going straight up!!
a nation of oneto Goldendome (11/11/03; 22:54:33MT - msg#: 111640)#11165211/12/03; 08:11:10

"...we tend to buy the dips rather than to chase the
rallies, therefore, we may need an "event" to give the
commitment needed to long term buyers in the speculative

Yes. I agree that is right. It was a long time before I understood it. It shows why there is always a need for a Caeser. And even Caesar needed an "event" to assure his confidence before crossing the Rubicon, on his way to invading Rome with his loyal army. It took the form of one of his soldiers, who understood what was about to happen, and who ran out into the river as though to go across it. Caesar took this as indicating his army would follow him, and he was right. But it is crucial that we make a distinction and more fully realize that it is not merely such events that furnish reason for what we do, but we ourselves, and that only when in doubt of our own abilities and purposes do we look to the heavens and try to find our fate written in the stars.

a nation of oneno offense, Caesar,#11165311/12/03; 08:14:40

Caesar's name should be spelled "Caesar."
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Federal_ReservesStagflation.#11165511/12/03; 08:38:33

Is the current FED deflation risk stance a con job? Is there really any risk of deflation? The world does seems awash in cheap asian/indian labor, yet the price of commodities is soaring. As the CPI drives higher, maybe rising above 3%, how long is the FED going to hold the line? Rising inflation and stagnate wages (falling real wages) could create a recession even IF the FED keeps the FF low.

What is the meaning of considerable?

My clock doesn't have that on the hands of time.

ZhishengTruly Remarkable#11165611/12/03; 09:17:14

that on a day when gold is up $5 and the dollar down a cent and a half versus the euro, the dow is up 45.
GoldiloxGold and GE on CNBC#11165711/12/03; 09:20:03

Bob Pisani was just explaining that gold passed through the $390 Put/Call point. He even mentioned the resistance point at 392 and the volume increased as we passed through. Liz exclaimed "We are very close to the psychlogical $400 level." Are these guys gold analysts now, or what? They're funny to watch, but I DO appreciate the fact that gold charts show up on the screen a few times every day now. A long way from the no coverage of 2002 and early 2003.

With all their "objective analysis" it's fun to watch them squirm as GE stock drops (supposedly due to Fund redemptions). It must hit home pretty hard on their ESSPs and 401Ks.

Joe says "GE has been seriously underperforming the indexes." Read between the lines, I hear "Please buy my company's stock, folks, the kids need new shoes!"

ZhishengThe Six Dollar Barrier#11165811/12/03; 09:23:13

is in danger of being breached. Will this be the long awaited commercial signal failure day?
TownCrierin the footsteps of giants#11165911/12/03; 09:42:08

The gold price has done very well lately, as though the average one tonne per day reallocations over the past two reporting weeks within the Eurosystem were not reaching the market at all. Imagine that. Since October 27th, 10 tonnes (of what I presume to be Dutch gold) have left the Eurosystem books.

This is all within the bounds of the maturing 1999 Washinton agreement, in which the Nethlands remains the most conspicuous EMU member with a pre-announced yet untapped quota. The Swiss remain the largest WA participant in this final year of the Agreement, but you will recall that they are outside the EMU.

Getting back to the footsteps, the consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem for the past two weeks in aggregate show this strategic 10 tonne decline in gold and gold receivables as a 105 million euro drain on Eurosystem reserves.

More significantly, this same two week period has revealed portfolio transactions to have allowed the net financial position in foreign currency to drop by 1,300 million euros in reserve value.

Thus, the gap between paper and gold reserves being held continues to narrow, with the foreign currency position sliding to EUR 190.0 billion while the gold reserves are currently anchoring the books at EUR 130.7 billion in value.

Furthermore, I hasten to add that that gold valuation is based on the previous (Sept 30) quarterly mark-to-market valuation of EUR 302.048 per ounce. Today's actual market valuation for gold has climbed to the neighborhood of EUR 337 per ounce, so in fairness, you could revalue the Eurosystem's current gold reserves upward by a multiplier of 112%. To do the math for you, this yields gold reserves with a street value of EUR 146 billion.

The trend can be your friend if you know what you're looking at.


KnallgoldI hear the grass growing#11166011/12/03; 09:44:10

and from very far steps'steps that sound like FOA coming back to this Forum...
White RoseXAU just crossed ***100***#11166111/12/03; 09:47:17

This is getting interesting.
a nation of onemy goodness#11166211/12/03; 09:53:51

When pog acts like this the bear market rally in the DOW can more easily be recognized as being grotesque.

Sooner or later it may even go baroque.

TownCrierFederal Reserve props bonds through $1.46 billion coupon pass#11166311/12/03; 09:59:32

While that operation adds "permanent" reserves to the nation's banking system (and thus increasing the money supply), the Fed today also took temporary measures, adding another $8 billion through overnight repurchase agreements with our nation's financial institutions.

This coming at a time when the market rate in overnight fed funds was trading in line with the FOMC directive targeting a 1 percent rate. Liquidity so deep today that everything, and I do mean everything (except the value of each dollar) swims on a higher tide.


a nation of oneits fleece is white as snow#11166411/12/03; 10:33:40

Just like a little lamb jumping over a fence.
RimhThe last currency...#11166511/12/03; 10:40:20


"It is just a lack of selling in the market. The dollar continues to weaken. The Middle East, everything, is just pushing gold higher. It's the last currency that you can't debase," said Ian MacDonald, head of bullion trading at Commerzbank.

No more needs to be said....Got Gold?

Clink!Towards more picturesque speech ....#11166611/12/03; 10:42:55

ANOO, you said :-

By making the terminology less
explanatory and more accurately descriptive, with regard
to the movements of prices and other factors, underlying
truths about markets could be more easily discovered and
the overall picture could be made more real.

and later :-

...the DOW can more easily be recognized as being grotesque.
Sooner or later it may even go baroque.

That's walking the walk, man - I like it !


a nation of one.,.#11166711/12/03; 11:16:43

Maybe it won't be inappropriate if I tell you that when
gold was at 395 today, my overall gain since I originally
got into the gold futures market was around 59%. That time
is less than two years. My purpose here is not to brag,
although I guess I could brag, but to shout the news of
what is possible in this market. I also own physical gold,
and of course that's up too. I know that pog goes up and
down, and that in order to realize this gain the contracts
must be sold. Nonetheless I am not selling these
contracts, which are December 2004 contracts, at this
time. Personally I still think that gold is very strong,
and that today's move confirms the direction gold's price
is headed, so I want to benefit from that. Also, I don't
want to contribute to any selling that may occur. I have
enough cash on hand to cover whatever gold might do, and
therefore I will simply wait and let it do what it wants.
Later, if it comes down significantly, maybe that would be
a good time to buy more.

It is remarkable to observe how one's own emotions also
strongly fluctuate with this tide.

a nation of oneto Clink#11166811/12/03; 11:25:50

Thank you for your appreciative remarks. I deserve it.

(A dark knight is permitted to say things like this. It's
stated in the bylaws. The fine print maybe, but it's there. Look for it. You'll find it.)

GoldiloxPOG Emotionally#11166911/12/03; 11:29:05

@ A nation of one-

I agree. Investing is supposed to be non-emotional, but I watched my positions climb with about the same emotion of watching my football team call plays in the red zone. I think I'll take some ST profits today and continue to root for the long term rise. This season, gold is performing like the KC Chiefs!!! Today is like a Dante Hall TD kickoff return.

ZhishengUp into the Close.#11167011/12/03; 11:30:42

And up $7 on the day.
ZhishengBut look at Silver!#11167111/12/03; 11:34:45

Up about 25 cents!
Federal_ReservesLayoffs in the Mortgage Industry??#11167211/12/03; 12:00:59

By staff <>
The number of people employed in mortgage-related jobs fell by 1,000 to 422,000, according to a recent government employment report.
The latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed there were 109,500 loan brokers, both mortgage and nonmortgage, as of September. The non-seasonally adjusted figure is down from 113,000 in August. A year ago, the sector had 85,700 employees.
The number of people working in the Real Estate Credit sector totaled 312,500, up from 310,000 the prior month, reported the bureau. The 2,500 employee increase came short of recovering the 2,600 drop in August. Last September, employees totaled 273,900 in this sector.
The dip in employment follows flattening refinancing activity since June -- when rates hit record lows. Mortgage applications have had a hard time recovering from a 20.5% weekly slump reported in mid-October by the Mortgage Bankers Association of America.
The news about the declining mortgage employment numbers, which are reported about one month after the end of each month, follows recent reports of layoffs from Washington Mutual, Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, and E-LOAN.
The bureau, a division of the U.S. Department of Labor, announced October's unemployment rate at 6.0% or 8.8 million people, down a notch from 6.1% the prior month.

>>> Tommorrow the latest MBA REFI activity will be reported.
>>> Its a day late on account of the holiday.

>>> It doesn't pay to refi today with the rates going up.
>>> Could really hurt the cash outs and spending
>>> plans of consumers. They'll have to start using more
>>> expensive plastic or go back to home equity loans unless
>>> the home is already "loaned out".

Goldbug 1Fur Face#11167311/12/03; 13:06:16

21mabry(No Subject)#11167411/12/03; 13:07:28

Good article on world oil supplies on sharlynx page called its the oil stupid.What would gold be worth in the scenario this article offers.This article is scary you can see its premise happening even now.Nation of one judging by your posts your having a good day.I am happy for you.One thing I have always had trouble doing is to know when to take a profit.I think its the hardest thing in investing.congrats 21
AgingfastTown Crier - Re: Fed activity today#11167511/12/03; 13:39:53

You failed to mention two factors influencing today's Fed activity - 1) today is the end of the two-week settlement period and 2) the currency drain associated with the Thanksgiving holiday.
TownCrierTwo non-issues.#11167611/12/03; 14:04:16

Paper AvalancheIs that hyperinflation I hear knocking?#11167711/12/03; 15:06:32

Here are the three highest percentage gainers from the CRB for ****TODAY****

Cocoa up 4.55%
Wheat up 3.88%
Corn up 3.33%

The above agricultural products literally cannot be grown fast enough to keep up with with the expansion of the money supply as the trajectory of the exponential curve slopes ever more vertical.

BTW, stopped by a fast food joint this afternoon on the way back to the office and ordered a small frosty. It was VERY small. But the price was the same. We are fast approaching the point where the inflation becomes apparent to Joe Sixpack.

Take care.

Paper Avalanche

steadydem bones/ off 2 d bone pile w/ u#11167811/12/03; 15:19:34

Weyerhaeuser To Close Longview, Wash., Fine Paper Operations; Weyerhaeuser To Eliminate 119 Positions
GoldiloxInflating Prices#11167911/12/03; 15:23:11

@Paper Avalanche-

CNBC reported today that Industrial metals rose right along with PMs, which might concern some that raw materials prices are growing quickly. Fodder, perhaps, for Jim Rogers' assertion that raw materials are due for a protrated rise.

Cavan ManUS equity gains#11168011/12/03; 15:30:11

Inflating right along with the broadest measure of monetary aggregates; even in absolute terms their performance is meaningless except to the great unwashed.
Gandalf the WhiteWOWSERS !!! There IT is !!! Next stop (hesitation) for the GREEN ROCKET is $428. !!!#11168111/12/03; 16:16:01$GOLD,PLTBDAN[PA][DD][F!3!!]&pref=G

Look and you can see WHY !
Today was the needed ALERT -- "Triple Top BREAKOUT"

GoldendomeWe're noticing! Paper Avalanche.#11168211/12/03; 16:38:29

The last time I stopped by a fast food outlet, I was shocked--shocked when I received back only pocket change from my $ten. This Joe sixpack's eyes bugged out and I protested, "there must be some mistake." No- it was all right there before me on the black on white sales receipt. Those fries and pops do add on, don't they.?

Gone are the days of getting change back from your dollar. Now, you hope to get change back from your ten...and next year, maybe your twenty. ----Gdome

Goldendome@nation-- Way to Go!!#11168311/12/03; 16:52:15

nation: Glad to read of your conviction and courage to first take and then to hold your futures positions even in the down turns. That type of courage is what James Sinclair has said was lacking in the futures market; the courage and faith to see the future of gold even as supposed gold analysts would say: "sell--runaway."

I too, own the physical gold and silver, and mining shares, but I have never had the financial courage, or just plain "guts" to try the futures. Keep up the good work. -----Gdome

misetichU.S. Spending on Iraq a Risk to the Dollar?#11168411/12/03; 17:26:12


CHICAGO (Reuters) - The widening U.S. budget gap, already a burden on the dollar, may grow heavier due to the cost of the open-ended U.S. involvement in Iraq that could end up costing $200 billion over the next decade, analysts said.

To the extent that the United States is likely to pay most of those security and rebuilding costs in Iraq, issuing debt will become even more critical to fill the yawning U.S. budget gap, fast approaching 5 percent of gross domestic product.

"I think that in the bigger picture ... the cost of rebuilding Iraq deals directly with the state of the U.S. fiscal deficit," said Alex Beuzelin, foreign exchange market analyst at Ruesch International in Washington D.C.

"This is only going to put great strain on the U.S. budget deficit going forward. That will ultimately have a negative impact on the economy and the dollar," Alex Beuzelin, the foreign exchange market analyst, said.
The huge caveat is that Japan's and China's foreign central banks are holding dollar-denominated U.S. Treasuries to prop up the dollar and keep the yen and the Chinese yuan lower, all in the name of buttressing their respective export sectors.

A few days I commented on the financial burden the NeoCons Agenda puts on the US economy

With Savings Rate about to go negative in the US the dependence on Asia - Japan to keep on funding the US Twin Deficits is unsastainable

Corporate CEO's are not as bullish regarding the US economic recovery and will be act cautiously in spending - thus it can be assured that job creation is going to be a non-event

Today, we learned of at least 18 Italians dead in Iraq, a US soldier and 8-10 Iraqi - with many more injured - Deepest condolences

Many adjectives are being used by the mass-media manipulators in branding today's action - "terrorism" "militants" "insurgents" -

Fact is today symbolized how out of control things are in Iraq. In the last 12-13 days over 60 soldiers of the "Coaltion of the Willing (Forced?)" - have lost their lives and many, many more injured

Getting to the point -

The US Administration underestimated the Iraq invasion- and the price both economically and politically is getting steeper

How can the US abandon Iraq now? Do they have an exit strategy?

Spain pulled out some of their assitance already and after the rhetoric of the next few days you can bet the Italians will do the same - After all how can the Italian government justify to their people the loss of human lives when their country was not attacked and was not in any way sanctioned by Nato or UN

Thus the "coalition of the willing (forced?)" will get weaker adding additional strain to the US to keep on providing the required manpower and funding

How can other countries be cajolled in sending in "peacekeepers"? The task has just been made harder for Powell and Co -

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

adminNews & Views#11168511/12/03; 17:42:45


You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

BB.......Missing all the fun??

GoldendomeDo Euro nations think that they have too much Gold?#11168611/12/03; 17:49:36

I would like to be able to understand why it is, that the Europeans (Euro members, I presume) continue to sell gold?
Is not Gold some basis for the value or quantity of Euro's? If so, doesn't it undermine their system to dis-horde gold?...possibly damaging the basis for their currency system? I should think that if I were basing my currency on Gold, I would covet my metal. There is probably a lot going on here that I have missed, but Gold sales by the British (non-euro member) at the bottom of the market a couple of years ago, made Gordon Brown look the Moron. Yet, the Swiss, Portuguese, Dutch, and whom else, among the Europeans, have been off-loading their monetary metal? This doesn't make sense to me if the European's are looking to have a reserve currency with Gold backing.

Are the Europeans are playing "rope a dope" with the dollar for awhile, as they grow stronger and the dollar continues to wear down? But that wouldn't seem to make much sense, unless they can get the Gold back in the future.

I have copied and re-posted some excerpts from Towny and Belgian from earlier today as seeming parodoxic examples of this situation. Thanks for the patience in trying to get this through the murk of my misunderstanding.

Town Crier writes this to the forum:

"Since October 27th, 10 tonnes (of what I presume to be Dutch gold) have left the Eurosystem books...

the consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem for the past two weeks in aggregate show this strategic 10 tonne decline in gold and gold receivables as a 105 million euro drain on Eurosystem reserves...

More significantly, this same two week period has revealed portfolio transactions to have allowed the net financial position in foreign currency to drop by 1,300 million euros in reserve value.

Thus, the gap between paper and gold reserves being held continues to narrow, with the foreign currency position sliding to EUR 190.0 billion while the gold reserves are currently anchoring the books at EUR 130.7 billion in value."


Earlier in a response to me, Belgian had stated that:

"If and when the euro should succeed in replacing the dollar as reserve-currency...more euro should have more stability, through the Freegold concept. Growing amounts of Physical Gold Wealth Reserve Asset in EURO, freely fluctuating in value against all currencies, as a new modern, flexible standard. In and out of Gold ...Your Gold and its value, will tell each and everyone of us, exactly, how wealthy we really are."


Please don't misunderstand, I'm not trying to quible--just understand the seemingly inconsistent positions of the Euro-countries. ---------Gdome.

Cavan ManPhysical @ Dealer Level Today#11168711/12/03; 17:51:43

We may have reached a turning point. Much more action on the BUY side today...little selling.
GoldiloxGold Buy Action#11168811/12/03; 17:59:51

To quote BB (who is definitely missed):

Tomorrow's open should be very interesting!!! Gold stocks continued up for the entire three hours after the close of the Comex.

Mr GreshamThings do pop#11168911/12/03; 18:05:39

sometimes. I imagine the cartel's rearguard action has to be to have as many "normal" days (PMs flat or down) as possible, and let all the upward zooms get over with in a compressed interval. (Gotta be onboard for those.) Then defend at a higher level. (Sort of like the "Bernanke moment" end of last year? Followed by the "message" of US military might, hammering gold back down to 320.)

Now if I just hadn't put those small put bets against the Dow...oh well...every bit helps!

(Caradoc: Your Arab article was spectacular! Worthy of regular re-reads. I imagine that FOA's protestation that "Another is English" could mean he's an Arab settled in London, no?)

misetichDerivatives Market Grows 20% to $170 Tln, BIS Says #11169011/12/03; 18:42:26


Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The global market for derivatives traded outside exchanges grew 20 percent to a record $170 trillion in the first half of the year, led by contracts pegged to interest rates, the Bank for International Settlements said
The figures ``point to continued vigorous growth in interest- rate swap contracts in the first half,'' the Basel, Switzerland- based BIS said in its twice-yearly derivatives report today. ``The strong growth in the market was visible in all market risk categories except gold
The notional value of gold derivatives fell 4 percent and gross market value dropped 22 percent in the period.

``The gold price was on a dramatic rollercoaster ride through the first half of 2003,'' the report said. There was ``continual and extensive producer de-hedging. With extremely low interest rates, producers earn less on proceeds of forward sales of gold.''

Producers de-hedging has slowed considerably in the last few weeks as GOLD prices rocketed in US $ and is ready to catapult over $400

With IR to be maintained at low levels (after all it is a Presidential Year - and it just wouldn't be nice for Sir Greenspan to torpedo ANOTHER Bush - would it?) producer hedging will be curtailed to project funding.

Without the continuos producers 'short sales' the physical supply diminishes and consequently only outright sales by CB's can augment supply

Andy Smith & Co are trying to persuade CB's to get rid of their gold - ( I would too if I were short and a mega-bear) and I guess add devaluating US $ to their portfolio

It is interesting to note how the BIS went "out of their way" to emphasize the non-growth in gold derivaties tying it to producers de-hedging -

Producers were not the only one selling Gold Short in recent years - Investment Bankers, Bullion Bankers piled on

Heavy hedgers are bleeding - off balance sheet of course - hoping for just a "flame out" and then going back to the "old days of sub $325

They just don't get it - it is the US $ stupid

All Aboard The Gold Express

Operative@ Mr. Gresham#11169111/12/03; 19:22:02

In regards to your comment:
"Caradoc: Your Arab article was spectacular! Worthy of regular re-reads. I imagine that FOA's protestation that "Another is English" could mean he's an Arab settled in London, no?)"

I wish to add a little mystery as well. One of the anagrams for ANOTHER is, A Throne. ?? Hmmm <grin> Know of any princes in "exile" ??

Great to see your post this evening. Hope you are faring well.

I am weeks behind in my readings here at the castle only grabbing the highlights every few days. Reminds me of a post you made days/weeks ago about having to pay attention to business lately, ditto for me.

Wishing all here a pleasant evening. Nice to sit around the campfire after a good day eh? Most relaxing.

TownCrierGoldendome, in answer to your question, I chose these particular words very carefully.#11169211/12/03; 19:58:22

"...this strategic 10 tonne decline..."

Operative word there is "strategic".

'nough said.


Liberty HeadBlack Blade#11169311/12/03; 20:23:13

Thank you kindly for your reply to my question about Elko Nevada. Your advice to check out Lamoille is well taken. I like what I have found on the internet enough to travel there in ernest, weather permiting, soon. Not much housing available at this time, but I only need one. :-)

Best Wishes

steadystuff!#11169411/12/03; 20:25:51

aristotle check it out
so you where sayong something to the effect that each night you lay down a changed man. i think that is because you grasp gold. see with the dollar as the reserve currency everything is changing so one is unaware of th echange, for example 6 oz packs of cheese for the same price as eight ounce packs of cheese ( the six ounce packs are new want to bet when the storehouse of 8 ounce packs are gone there will be six ounce only for the same price poof mission accomplished . but no one notivces. well people are kinda now, but with the un balanced circuation of floating currency life is a flux you have nothing to ground yourself on nothing to provide that stability that comparison so you can measure change accuratly without so many conversions.
since you and maybe me even kinda, maybe, sorta, i hope, grasp that gold is well gold as you so eloquently put it its easier to recognize the change and measure it cause you are dealing with absolute values and attributes not some subjective measure. so you see gold understanding even perculates down into you r personal life. thats point where ecoism takes effect upon you . yes that world wide movement where individuals ( even big trusts and charities) are realizing something is afoot with gold and are reexaming what is going on, what change is taking place.Without a more thoughour understandiong of whats happening they will be moving to fast when they should be standing still to absorb the total impact of gold ownership.

your post about reflections got me to thinking how my thoughts tend to mimic yours after you have posted them. you have been a beacon guiding me, you verbosity and ability to clear the path before me has done wonders for my own interpretations. one day i hope to type w a post .9999 pure as yours are.

i do have a question though does anyone think the money that is departing the us dollar and may not want to be 100% exposed to euroes finds its way into malaysias newly revamped financial sector? I think they are setting themselvs up to be a viable alternative /compliment to the euro. rember tehy are pushing bi lateral trade agreements in gold and are reintroducing the dinar ( which its second minting , which is oversubscribed by the way) is in the works mind you its only 11,000 ounces broken down into basically a lil under 5 grams but is happening and a third and fourth mintnigs are in the works im sure) they could be the financer of the far east indonesia, laos, thialand , burma, mymar, mongolia, so on and so forth. just a thought as not all that money will find itself in euroes (diversification , nor will it all find its way into gold /silver.)
where will you be priced in at?
did you get sum yet?

touquoyNew participant to this forum and just want to thank all the contributors for the wisdom you impart about gold and the financial markets. #11169511/12/03; 20:45:15

My gold exposure is through shares and wish to know your comments regarding the relative merits of investing in strong commodity countries sharemarkets like Australia and Canada versus the USA sharemarket with regards to Gold Shares and the likely comparitive performance of gold shares in those markets when the bubble bursts in the USA.
21mabryLiquidity#11169611/12/03; 22:51:56

I was watching cnbc today,the commentator was marveling how all markets were rising together.Gold,Nyse,etc the first thought that came to my head was liquidity.This economy is awash in fiat the smart money his in things gold and other commodities,but there is plenty of money out there to push other markets higher.That would be a decent plan if tptb new gold was going higher to let it.But they could also say these other markets are rising to this may deflect the less astute for awhile longer.21
WaveriderPuplava: Market Wrap-Up#11169711/12/03; 23:05:48

"To the moon, Alice."
"As an investment, it isn't on anyone's radar screen, at least not on the screens of the general public. Yet in the last three years, the price of the yellow metal has risen 54% from its nadir of $255.55 on April 2, 2001 to today's 7-year high of $394.45. The last time we saw gold prices this high was back in May of 1996.

What's The REAL Reason?
There is something going on here and it is more than just the price of the dollar. Demand for commodities has been rising each year and most commodities are running a supply deficit. The real driving force behind the rise in commodity prices is demand. The other driver is the value of the dollar."

Waverider: Puplava provides an excellent market wrap-up (with charts) today which I post in Black Blade's absence.

GoldendomeMetal For the Long Haul#11169811/13/03; 00:31:42

Dad telephoned from Idaho this evening. The conversation followed a usual pattern: Whatcha-been-doin?... We been walkin', that type thing.

"I was metal detecting the other day", he says, " found about seven dollars-- including a 1908 quarter."

"Wow", I responded, "You don't find one of those every day; must have been a Morgan, right? Sounds like pretty rich diggins to find seven bucks."

"Well, actually, they called them Barber quarters," he replied chuckling softly, "but it wasn't in very good shape; been in the ground a long time. Ya, I was down in the park around the swimming pool, but I found the quarter in the little strip of lawn just between the sidewalk and curb area near the street."

Then, changing subjects he says, "Say, I see gold's about back up where you bought all those coins for, about twenty years ago; you gunna sell-em-out?"

I hesitated, a little startled by the abrupt question-- that's dad.

"No," I said, pausing to think: "I cann't remember where they're buried...Might have to have you come find 'em for me...I lost the map...and besides, there's a bunch of nine-ten dollar silver down there, too. Not hardly worth diggin' up at this point. No, it's been there a long time; think I'll just let it lay."


DummyANIMitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:#11169911/13/03; 00:50:00

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Oct. 14 61,787c plus1430c...375.7
Oct. 15 61,331. minus0456c...376.2
Oct. 16 61,009. minus0322c...373.1
Oct. 17 60,407. minus0602c...373.2
Oct. 20 62,631c plus2224c...372.2
Oct. 21 67,474c plus4843c...374.4
Oct. 22 58,163. minus9311c...382.0 <---wrong-short
Oct. 23 49,538. minus8625c...386.8 <---wrong-short
Oct. 24 46,545. minus2993c...385.0
Oct. 27 50,838c plus4293c...389.2
Oct. 28 49,296. minus1542c...388.2
Oct. 29 51,053c plus1757c...383.4
Oct. 30 53,108c plus2055c...387.0
Oct. 31 51,174. minus1934c...384.4
Nov. 04 50,855. minus0319c...377.1
Nov. 05 49,206. minus1649c...380.0 <---wrong-short
Nov. 06 49,651c plus0445c...382.7
Nov. 07 51,679c plus2028c...380.7
Nov. 10 51,341. minus0338c...383.4
Nov. 11 51,722c plus0381c...386.7
Nov. 12 52,927c plus1205c...388.2
Nov. 13 61,349c plus8422c...395.0

D-ANI: CRB gains a new high. Corn gains a new high. And Silver & Gold may be a first runner of CRB rally.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Gonlyold"Pretty Soon You're Talking About Real Money"#11170011/13/03; 01:08:51

I forget who said that. Something about a few billion here and a few billion there and pretty soon you're talking about real money. Well, looks like we're getting there.

In Transmission & Distribution World's Supplement to the Electrical Construction & Maintenance Magazine, Oct. 2003 the topic of the August 14 power outage was addressed. (You may try and to try to locate the supplement magazine, but I couldn't find it: I have the hard copy version)

Generaly all agree that the 1950's designed electrical power grid must be upgraded to operate at 2003's load demand. The cost discussed is staggering. According to the Supplement, Jose Delgado, president of the midwest American Transmission Co. says that he agrees with forecasts which indicate that the "ultimate price tag could approach $100 billion."

And "Kurt Yeager, the president of EPRI, the Edison Power Research Institute, in Palo Alto, Calif., behind the back-of-the-envelope estimate that it would cost $100 billion to upgrade the grid..."

Even with the $100B spread out for the next X amount of years, let's see, $87B for Irag, $100B for electricity, pretty soon you're talking about real money.

If Bush doesn't watch the home front, the US may end up in more trouble than the dollar. And the euphoria over the POG
will be little consolation for the people of the US. Gold still cannot keep your refrigerator running. Enjoy with caution.

Belgian@Goldendome#11170111/13/03; 01:39:34

The CBs and their Gold enigma...ENIGMA ! : This word "Enigma" simply says it all, Sir ! How can one detect and evidence inconsistencies in an enigma ? You can't !

One should bundle everything that has already been said on CBs and Gold, as to come to conclusions that bring peace of mind to us, humble shrimps.

My latest conclusion goes as follows : Buying - accumulating - holding, Physical Gold in Possession, as a * UNIVERSAL WEALTH RESERVE ASSET * is an act of "agression" against the dollar...dollar-system, dollar-reserve ! Idem dito for not supporting the dollar's efforts to keep its control on the globe's oil remaining reserves ! Think deep about this,...very, VERY deep !

Gold AND oil express the degree of "dollar-use", dollar-support and lifetime of the dollar-system !

This planet can kill the dollar in one single second : Exchange your dollar-confetti-digits for Gold...and the dollar IS replaced by the most universal of wealth reserve assets ! Or...demand Gold for the remaining oil and,...

Why,...WHYYYYYYYY, is this NOT happening in ONE second, dearest dome of Gold...WHY, good knight !?
Because the euro-alternative cannot afford to make a false start and fail !

The ECB and BIS-system has done this thinking, already.
Remember the IMF-dollar-system, wanting to sell their 3,000 tonnes !?? Do you see now how these two rivalling systems (IMF-BIS) cultivate their (the) Gold enigma !?

Whilst Americans (the dollar) were deprived of Gold for 40 years, their European counterparts could "hold" Gold !

I'm reading (studying) the book (700 pages) : " The jews, the world and the money " by Jacques Attali. Try to find an english version if it exists. Amazing stuff, Sir...
Nothing has changed for the past 5,000 years !!! Nothing !

Read the growing *insights* of Alex Wallenwein (next door) .
It helps our understanding of the enigma( coded, secret language).

Yes, indeed, we are allowed to see only the tiniest of top of the hidden Gold-berg and this is already more than enugh to *confuse* us all, babylonically !

Simply because we continiously lose the main fundamental out of sight : The transitional change from one system to ANOTHER ! We are detail-oriented and driving with our noses on the windscreen, not looking further than the front-wheel of our little car.

As soon as one mentions "GOLD" at some level,...there comes a silence ! Gold is taboo for serious students. Why do you think the WGC gave up ?

Take an in dept look at the charts of some representatif commodities over the past 10 years and compare these with Gold's chart ! Another enigma, no ? Is Gold growing on rubber trees these days...? No Sir, those CBs and some Gold Giants are very, VERY busy with...GOLD !!!

Remember FOA saying that it is common to look at the fish (Gold) from outside his bowl...Try to get yourself, mentally, inside the bowl and swim WITH the goldfish !
This is no cryptic language for me anymore. Schrimpy tries to think he's a lilliputan central banker, whoepsieeeee.

Of course, there are central bankers who most probably made small or big/bigger mistakes ! History will never expose these mistakes to the general public and the enigma can live on. But not all CBs remain dum all the time.

I repeat briefly everything that has been/still is, *** supporting *** the dollar-system, for the time being : POO - IRs - Stock Markets Overvaluations - dollar-index (exch. rate) - Paper contract Au-market - and last but not least MORE AND MORE DOLLAR CONFETTI-DIGITS !

If you "believe" that the above is "supporting" the globe's economy...dollar-economy...don't buy/hold Physical Gold and and go/remain "paper" as an overwhelming majority is still doing in fact ! And here we come again to the main difference between the "old" FED and the new "ECB". (sorry, but I'm having some rummy-fun with the word "old").
FED = dollar-economy supporter and ECB = euro-supporter !!!

Amen, Bro.

SteveHYesterday appears to be a $9.00 up day for gold...#11170211/13/03; 02:03:34

now not that I haven't been paying attention but isn't that recent record? At least since the Washington agreement? We have had plent of down days like that and incremental climbs back, but nothing like what happened yesterday?


Caradoc"how to make a lot of money"#11170311/13/03; 02:56:50

A retired buddy send me and two others a wistful email about how if we each put up a thousand dollars and started a small company, we could all "make a lot of money" if we could just come up with a low-cost, high-markup product like the hula hoop or the pet rock. I countered by pointing out that a thousand bucks worth of April options in my favorite gold stock might be just as good. As edited appropriately for this forum (I hope!), here's extract beginning after link to Sinclair chart showing increase in the rate of increase:
***text follows***
Nice, huh? Naturally, the rate of increase can't continue to increase like this for the next 5 months in a row or you'd make an obscene amount of money. But there's plenty of room for tapering off and even an occasional day of downward movement... so that you make 5 or 10 dollars for each of your fifty cent pieces. Not bad, but I suspect it'll be a lot better than that.

Yes, a lot of different pieces of [deleted] have various probabilities of hitting the fan between now and April so that gold goes beyond $1000 per ounce and [favorite stock] goes to a number higher than [XX]. The collapse of the Saudi government would do it. Or maybe we don't stop the next "dirty bomb" in New York's harbor. Or the Canadians don't stop the next guy driving south with a truck full of explosives and a map showing how to get to the Sepulveda tunnel under the LAX runway. But we don't need any of those to happen. Nor do we need Yellowstone to burp ash 6 feet deep over the western US or anything else drastic like the fruitcake running North Korea deciding to test his first nuke south of the DMZ.

With the Bush administration having [irritated] the CIA by outing one of their people, I think we'll see more CIA "leaks" like the one that had Bush calling his Iraq administrator back to DC for an attitude adjustment and orders to "speed up" the democratization of Iraq. Ditto, with Jessica Lynch revealing that she wasn't really Joan of Arc, our nation's senior military know that it's now public information that their efforts and the efforts of their troops are being spun into a shabby remake of "Wag the Dog." Simple human nature says they're now less than eager to broaden the current Crusade and will tend to either passively disassociate themselves from what's going on by retiring like General Franks did or by actively working behind the scenes to discredit/end the Bush administration. Looking at the international level, our Commander in Chief has opened his mouth and pronounced words to the effect that decades of allowing various countries around the world to have governments different from ours hasn't made America safe. As we say in California, "Well, DUH...." This pronouncement must have various governments around the world thinking about how much they want to continue supporting the US dollar by using it as a currency reserve and by pricing their raw products (oil or whatever) in terms of dollars. For a clue, note that China isn't openly shorting the dollar; they're just quietly exchanging those dollars as fast as they can for silver and soybeans, gold and wheat, copper and cocoa. In short, gold is on the way up and the dollar is on the way down not because of any disaster scenarios playing out but because of current and prospective actions and attitudes both domestic and foreign.
***end of text***

Note: the above relies heavily on what Sinclair has been saying, but I thought some of you might enjoy it.

With more than a million people per year entering the US between 1880 and 1920 and with those folks marrying and having children, it's a cinch that most US citizens don't have a blood tie to the English Puritans who landed in Massachusetts in 1620. Evenso, much of what made America a good place to be stemmed from the beliefs of those earlier immigrants. For one, the idea of "making money" rather than preserving wealth was a direct result of the so-called Protestant work ethic. A good idea to have come up with, I think, and it's ironic and regrettable that we've apparently come full circle to the point that it's now a good idea to look at preserving wealth no matter which bunch of immigrants you might be descended from.

Even more regrettable is what has happened to the Puritan's idea of Plymouth (and by extension Boston) becoming a "city on a hill." It wasn't by accident that the most important members of the second generation after 1620 lived on "Beacon Street" in Boston. They literally believed that their lives, their city, and what their nation would become would be like a light providing an example to the world. What's sad is that this dream of being an example that others might choose to emulate has apparently mutated -- if you take literally what's being said -- into a nightmare where our leaders are no longer willing to tolerate any nation choosing to do other than adopt our way of life.


Socrates964Oil#11170411/13/03; 03:21:23

Charts never lie! Euro reversal cemented - now watch for oil to go through 31.63 (Dec Nymex Light Sweet) - IMHO, this is the catalyst that will carry Euro to 1.26 and POG to 430.

I agree about the markets being awash with liquidity. What you have to remember is that gold is a mouse of a market compared to elephantine bond and stock markets.

In a previous life where I pushed EM stocks we would always wheel out asset allocation statistics of the 'If the average portfolio allocates 2% instead of 1.5% of overall assets to Russia, then this will treble the market cap' variety. Well, the same applies to gold. Indeed, if we assume that most of the money going into the stock market is coming out of the public sector and a few percent of this ends up in gold, then it is quite easy to imagine a situation in which gold rises with the broad market.

Goldbug 1Admiration.#11170511/13/03; 04:44:23

I have great admiration for the almost daily posts by Belgian, Black Blade and many others. They are written by gentlemen with great knowledge and understanding of economics and the ways of the world but I do wonder how they find the time to write such erudite material. Would it be too much to ask how they do it and still find time for family and business? Fantastic time management or what.
I struggle daily to manage the needs of Fur Face who by the way says tonights the night!
Thank you gentlemen for all you give us.

The Invisible Hand*** $8,752.0 **** #11170611/13/03; 04:47:27

The Invisible Hand (2/18/02; 01:46:17MT - msg#: 70296)
Confirmation and discussion ****$ 8,752****
I do hereby confirm my guess of ****$ 8,752 ****
Discussion: Although in an earlier post of the last fortnight I said that A/TG predicted an upward surge of 50 bucks a day, I think it would be more precise to say that the gentlemen argue the unexpected move towards $ 30,000 can occur at anytime. It must thus start once. Why not within the 'time limit' of the contest?
Oops, there is no contest.
Socrates964, what are EM stocks?

BoilermakerPower Outage of August 14#11170711/13/03; 05:36:04

This is for those of you who want to understand a little more about the recent NE blackout.

"While the investigation into the August 14 blackout continues, problems with reactive power are being looked into and given lots of attention - apparently for good reason.
Voltage drops related to reactive power caused blackouts on the Pacific Coast in 1996 and in France in 1978. PJM itself came close to a blackout due to reactive power problems in 1999, avoided it, and took corrective steps. Yet, by having rigorous regional monitoring of reactive power and rules for its operation and compensation, PJM is unusual within the electric industry. Even though reactive power is essential to electricity reliability, many areas don't actively manage it - under-reacting to a long-known problem."

This article describes the probable "smoking gun" that precipitated the NE blackout in August. It's the VARs stupid. (voltage ampere reactive)
Reactive power or VARs in a power transmission line is like plaque in your arteries. It is theorized that Ohio-based utilities were negligent that day in not managing their VARS hence the capacity of their lines was reduced and that precipitated the cascading transmission line failures.

Druid(No Subject)#11170811/13/03; 05:39:36

"Buenos Aires, Argentina - Money. From childhood, we desire it, pursue it, use it, save it, invest it and spend our lives agonizing over how to keep what we have, and get more. Yet, most people don't understand what money really is, and how it works, any better than they understand quantum mechanics."

Druid: Isn't it interesting how people organize their affairs around something they "know" or "understand" very little of. From my perspective, it all seems to be centered on that old fashioned notion of "trust". Once breached, it could portend hell on earth.

The inflation pace is really starting to gather a lot of steam. Do you hear the voices of the prophets? They are really starting to come in much clearer. Have a great day bugs.

BoilermakerFED advertises continued low rates#11170911/13/03; 05:52:13

VIENNA (Reuters) - Chicago Federal Reserve (news - web sites) President Michael Moskow said on Thursday the central bank plans to keep interest rates low for a considerable period of time.

He declined to speculate on precisely how long that period would be, but said the Fed would monitor all economic developments.

"It depends on the future of the U.S. economy, the growth of the economy, performance in the job market. All of the dozens and dozens of economic indicators that we look at, we will monitor to determine what the length of that considerable period of time is," said Moskow at a panel discussion at a conference in Austria's capital.

Moskow this year is a voting member of the Fed's policy setting Federal Open Market Committee (news - web sites).

The Fed's benchmark federal funds rate is at one percent, the lowest level since 1958 and has said in its statement that it would keep rates low for some time ahead.

No mention of inflation here. I wonder who attended this conference. Why would Moskow advertise continuing low FED rates to a European audience? I'm sure Belgian can figure it out for us.

Belgian@ Goldbug 1 and Fur Face#11171011/13/03; 06:27:48

It is all about passion, love, perseverence, integrity, authenticity, fascination, ambition, engagement, etc... and above all, an immense joy of life very worthwile of living ! One can do 3 things at the same time...being there for someone, working with your hands, absorb the constant flow of online info and think about with it.

Socrates : Even the Physical Gold Market * IS * much bigger than we might be percepting it ! Although I have no evidence...I increasingly suspect that many of the BIG Physical Gold-transfers are happening at much higher prices than the visible, exogene, paper ones (FOA said thousands $/ounce). CBs and the Gold Giants definitely know how obscenely Gold is priced and WHY this is so. Invisible goldtrade is 5 times the volume of the visible one, physical included !

All forms of real and fake collateral move faster and unnoticed than statistics can reveil. When one is swimming in a gigantic increasing pool of confetti-digits and there is a slow down in the profitable multiplication tools (investment) goes for more conservative consolidation of those digits (Gold) at hidden prices that aren't disturbing the further accumulation of those tangibles. Fortunes are made by those who have (master) the anticipation quality.

This same maveuvering is often seen in the real estate tangibles. Excesses of money that aqcuire masses of real estate (land) and then prop up the prices with the help of the political arms of the economy/financials !!!

This happens with Gold also. But there is one little problem here. The ECB/BIS fraternity has a program, strategy and goal that isn't coinciding with the classic story of the past 20 years !

A big miauwwww helloiawww to Furry Facy.

Cavan ManGonlyold#11171111/13/03; 06:30:28

Senator Everett Dirksen, IL
misetichFed's Poole Says Low-Rate Conditions May `Extend Beyond March' #11171211/13/03; 06:37:24


Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy needs to grow faster than economists predict to absorb the workers and capital idled by three years of slow growth, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said. The Fed may have room to keep rates low ``well beyond March,'' he said.

``The standard forecast is still for good but by no means gangbusters growth,'' said Poole, a voter on the Federal Open Market Committee next year, in an interview. ``That means we are only going to make very slow gains in reducing unemployment.''
The unemployment rate, now at 6 percent, could fall below 5 percent without causing inflation worries, Poole said.

The comments show that even one of the Fed's most aggressive inflation fighters is convinced the economy has room to grow without forcing rates higher. Earlier this year JP Morgan Securities Inc. dubbed Poole as the Fed's second-most ``hawkish'' member. The phrase refers to someone likely to seek higher rates at early signs of an inflation threat.
Poole's newfound tolerance for faster growth puts his estimate of the economy's potential growth rate in line with, or a little above, estimates by colleague Robert McTeer, the Dallas Fed president who calls his bank ``the New Economy Fed.'' McTeer dissented three times in his past two years as an FOMC voter, always in favor of lower rates or easier policy.
``Productivity gains have been extraordinary,'' Poole said. ``Back when we got the second quarter numbers, I described them as stunning, and now we've got the third quarter numbers and I don't know what word to use.''

Adding to Boilermaker (11/13/03; 05:52:13MT - msg#: 111709)
FED advertises continued low rates

Mr. Poole who is termed as 'most hawkish' Fed Governor, is spreading the 'gospel' of the productivity miracle and promoting low IR - EXTREMELY BULLISH FOR GOLD

The Feds are TOTALLY DESPERATE in attempting to REFLATE the stock market which is already in BUBBLE TERRITORY

The worry is job creation, sustainability of earnings, consumer spending, consumer and corporate debt, government deficits - the last lever at the Fed Disposal after IR and lower taxation, increase government spending is to DEPRECIATE US $

EU needs a stronger Euro to offset higher inflation thus it can be expected the US $ to continue its path toward equilibrium with its economy - at least ANOTHER 20% depreciation from this point

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Druidmisetich (11/13/03; 06:37:24MT - msg#: 111712)#11171311/13/03; 06:44:57


Nov 12: Many stock market analysts think that in the fall of 1929, at the time of the crash, stocks were overvalued. Irving Fisher argued just before the crash that fundamentals were strong and the stock market was undervalued. In this paper, we use growth theory to estimate the fundamental value of corporate equity in 1929 and compare it to actual stock valuations. Our estimate of the fundamental value of equity is based on values of productive corporate capital, both tangible and intangible, and tax rates on corporate income and distributions. The evidence strongly suggests that Fisher was right. Even at the 1929 peak, stocks were undervalued relative to the prediction of theory.
- Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis May 2003

Druid: Misetich adding to both yours and Boilermaker's post, the FED is now rewriting history.

Belgian@Boilermaker#11171411/13/03; 07:16:50

These 45 years low/lower IRs have NOTHING (I'm yelling here...NOTHING !!!) to do with "economy" but everything with the support of the dollar, directly and indirectly.

Those who continue to disagree on this, simply have to explain the Japanese situation of zero IRs and a contracting economy over such a length of time !!!

The dollar-system is shaking on its fundamentals and needs full power support from all and everything.

When there is a genuine expanding economy and the outlooks are reasonably good and reliable, interest rates (and their ttends) are not that fundamentally important !!! A reliable job-security outlook doesn't care about the levels-trends of the IRs, for buying a house or making a loan...being economical active. When IRs are "brought" THAT low for such a LONG period...something is dramatically, fundamentally, going WRONG ! It is the existing "monetary system" that is at the economy's service (base) that is sick (cancerous).

We will get confirmation of this personal view of mine, if and when IRs rise and the dollar collapses or not. Hospitalized cancer patients (the $) are often leaving the hospital (zero IRs) one last time, as to die quietly, peacefully at home (loss of reserve status).

If IRs rise substantially (more than 6% - UST10yrs) AND the dollar + dollar-economy don't collapse...we might conclude that the dollar found and received, prolonged assistance from the majority of dollar-users. Evidence that the euro-alternative is not yet ready and more dollar-time must be "organized".

BTW, Old Yeller can you post the article (on the euro) you mentioned yesterday. Link was empty ? TIA.

Note that the real IRs for you and me are much, MUCH higher than those semi-official interbank IRs ! Here we need the expertise and knowledge of an insider banker as to explain the real purpose of the stratego-game !

And indeed, as another poster (Druid-?) said...we don't know what money is (remember the debates, on money, a year ago)! How much do we know (understand) about an IR ? Fundamentally (theoretically), low IR, indicate a strong underlying fiat ! Strong dollar-talk-policy = dollar-defense, artificially...unsustainably !!!

And according to Jacques Attali...Gold never was money but always a Wealth Asset, 5,000 years ago !!!
And he explains what the oldest origins of money really were and more important WHY money is what it is ! I can't summarize those 700 pages.

Soros has been hired, again, as to "guide" the perceptions (humhum) on Bush's logic of war and the subject (plunder) of Russia. Fascinating...

SkydogGold Train Leaving#11171511/13/03; 07:20:32

"Hope you didn't miss the Gold train before it crossed the ‘390 bridge’. And watch out for that other train bearing down on you! It's loaded with paper."

Skydog says: Thanks to RogerBabson from one of the sister castles for this gem....enjoy.

Goldendome@ Sir Belgian#11171611/13/03; 07:23:48

Thanks for your extended and detailed response to my question. Unfortunately, I'll have to read it in depth later on today, as I'm running to work, now. But I want to linger long enough to say, "thank you." ----Gdome.
Socrates964Belgian#11171711/13/03; 07:26:03

Well, Belgian, even if gold is being traded under the counter at 10x the current market price, it's still a small market compared to bonds/equities.

I must confess to a certain skepticism on this point. There are examples of markets with two widely divergent prices (e.g. the USSR where the black market RUB/$ rate was 8-10 times the official rate), but human nature being what it is, I doubt that such a huge arbitrage opportunity would persist for very long. But then, maybe I'm just a know-nothing Socrates.

Let's assume for the sake of argument, however, that it's true. It seems to me that rather than saying that the true price of gold is $4000/oz, it is more the case that there is no pricing mechanism that is publicly available.

Imagine, for example, an exclusive country club which won't admit blacks/Jews/Hispanic but that charges WASPs $10,000 for membership. If I'm a Mexican, say, then how much does membership cost. Answer, there's no price because the market is closed to me. Now, what happens if one of the WASP members goes bankrupt and offers to sell me his membership for $1,000 dollars. I might be able to make some money on the side by finding another WASP who wanted to buy his membership for $10,000 and then corralling the bankrupt member into alleging that he sold it directly (since I can't appear in the transaction), so presuming I can cut this informal deal, I might just walk away with $9,000 (although it's hard to imagine that anyone would want to do this deal with me), but I can't complete this transaction formally because I am barred from the market.

Now let's assume that the Country Club hits hard times and the only way it can pay its bills is to extend membership to other ethnic groups. Your argument seems to assume that I can dust off the membership that I bought 'informally' and walk through the doors of the club saying 'Look, I'm already a member. I know I joined through the back door, but a membership is a membership.' You're betting that it will be honored with no questions asked by people who are still just as prejudiced against Hispanics but who need to be bankrolled. Again, knowing human nature, this isn't a deal I would do.

I just think that there's too much gold out there for this parallel pricing to work.

You can also argue the contrary, that there is some technological marvel hidden in some secret government lab that will turn horse manure into gold and send the latter price crashing to cents on the dollar. While it may not be cost effective at $400, it may well be at $4,000. And if it is, who wouldn't try it?

What can we say, except that the market is not pricing in either scenario.

My rule of thumb is the Roman point about an ounce of gold buying a good quality toga. If you split the difference between a good off-the-peg Gieves suit (about $700-900) and a bespoke Saville Row suit (about $3,500) you probably have a figure in the $1,500-2,000 range. How we adjust this going forward is purely a function of how much fiat is printed.

AristotleFor Socrates964#11171811/13/03; 08:26:42

In your 111717 to Belgian, maybe you're having a hard time accepting a behind the scenes "parallel pricing" between the Gold Country Club (to build on your analogy) and us minor peasants on the outside beacause you're not taking TIMING into account.

Maybe that's where you can get your mind around dual prices inside and out; that is, the biggies are paying for short time guaranteed delivery.

Think of it like this. At the present time for the minority of Gold-buying lilliputians among the wide world to get their immediate delivery of a few ounces at a low price, the market can handle it because most other lilliputians are channelled toward paper Gold betting windows which are now balancing their wagers against the house at $400 per unlimited imaginary ounces.

Nobody knows what the future will bring, and security comes at a price. If a big Country Club Member wants the security of a LARGE quantity of Gold, and wants it TODAY rather than meted out over a looooooooooooong time, that condition comes only at a high price that acknowledges (within the Club) the ACTUAL value of Gold.

You don't have to worry about the high price falling if the walls come down and the Club Members are made to mingle with the lilliputians. The insider's high Actual value (price needed to clear volume for delivery/ownership) will certainly not NOT diminish when the House's paper game fails and the growing numbers of Gold-seeking lilliputians in the process lose access to their past confidence-keeping-gift of cheap Metal.

More simply, when you're BIG, you can gamble and pay the low price for a paper promise of delivery over a looooooong uncertain time across political horizons and boundaries, or you can pay the necessary high HIGH price for the security to clear that deal today.

Some day all Gold will trade that way. Real Wealth for Real People.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

misetichUp Up and Away - Record imports lead to wider U.S. trade gap in Sept.#11171911/13/03; 09:39:55


WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The U.S. trade deficit widened by 4.4 percent in September to $41.3 billion, the Commerce Department said. The trade deficit above the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists of a deficit of $40.2 billion in September. Imports rose faster than exports in September. Imports rose 3.3 percent to a record $127.4 billion. Exports rose 2.8 percent to $86.2 billion. The trade deficit is on track to set a new record this year, economists said. For the first nine months of the year, the trade deficit totaled $366 billion, up 21.2 percent from the same period last year. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to a record $12.7 billion in September, easily beating the previous record of $11.7 billion set only last month.

Trade deficit on track for a new record as is the Federal Budget -

Incredible pace and no end in sight - as oil prices stubbornly remain high and a significant portion of the US economy GDP derived from service industry is really not exportable thus little improvement can be hoped from exports. Wind India growth in software/programming/call centre the pressure is on - cutting on Hitech margins

US economic growth is being overstated by the Feds gospel spreaders (Treasury, CB governors primarily)attempting to keep up consumer confidence

These bozos have been wrong for the last several years and are wrong again - Reality says you can't spend HOPE, and if you do you probably borrowed it from expected future earnings

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Federal_ReservesConsumer spent out? Money airpocket? Right in front of XMAS.#11172011/13/03; 09:40:28

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Applications for U.S. home loans dropped last week to their lowest level in almost a year-and-a-half, a trade group said on Thursday, as rising rates cut into demand for homes and mortgage refinancing.
The Mortgage Bankers Association of America said its barometer of mortgage applications fell 8.6 percent in the week ended Nov. 7, reaching its lowest level since the week ended June 14, 2002.
Applications to refinance mortgages and for mortgages to buy homes both fell last week, with refinancing applications down almost 80 percent from their all-time peak, reached during the summer when interest rates hit a 45-year low.
"The mortgage business has been running so hard, for so long, that some sort of slowdown was almost assured," said Gregory Miller, chief economist at SunTrust Banks in Atlanta.
The declines suggest the housing sector may start slowing after propping up the economy for two years, but that does not necessarily threaten economic growth, analysts said.
"Other areas (of the economy) will be picking up the slack," Miller said.
Declines in applications last week came as the rate for a 30-year mortgage, the most popular home loan in the United States, rose 0.09 percent to 5.94 percent, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.
Thirty-year rates have risen almost a full percentage point since reaching record lows in mid-June, according to MBA data.
With higher rates, applications to refinance mortgages fell 10.1 percent last week, bringing the trade group's refinancing index to 2,084.2, its lowest level since late August.

Applications for mortgages to buy homes fell 7.1 percent, bringing the group's purchase index to 375.4, 18.5 percent below its peak in late May.

Falling applications for mortgages to buy homes suggest that sales will slow in coming months, but so far, sales have been strong. Existing home sales reached a record in September, the last month for which data are available, while new home sales were close to a record level.

With strong demand for homes, housing investment rose 20.4 percent last quarter, according to gross domestic product data, helping to fuel overall economic growth of 7.2 percent.

The housing sector also influenced consumer spending, as home buyers furnished their homes, and bought appliances.

Consumer spending on durable goods rose an eye-popping 26.9 percent in the third quarter, according to gross domestic product data.

But the number of consumers looking to buy homes at current financing rates is waning, economists said.

"There's no question, we're losing momentum here," said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.

GoldiloxChina commodities shopping cart#11172111/13/03; 09:46:12


As of yesterday's news, it seems China is adding 737's, Cadillacs, and Dodge trucks to the long list of items in their $$ shopping cart. If they are preparing to float their currency, they might as well spend as many of their excess $$ as they can before US prices rise too much.

Solomon WeaverAri, Socrates, and others.....on topic of dual pricing#11172211/13/03; 09:46:28


The mechanism of backroom deals is also very prevalent in stock deals.

When the market is in balance, then a very large buyer or a very large seller who enter the market with a large bid will immediately swing the market against their trade.

Every holder has some kind of exit strategy.....many large buyers have some form of strategic plan.

The whole charade of the British Central Bank sales was done so that large buyers could pick up transactions at prices that hardly made the market fluctuate.

I do, however, have a very hard time accepting that a 10X premium exists in gold......because, there would certainly be very heavy arbitrage.

There are approximately 4 billion ounces of gold above ground. At today's prices, the entire melt value would be about US$ 1.6 Trillion. That might be small compared to the global GDP or Total Dollar Debt Float which are both in the ballpark of US$ 30 Trillion, but it is still a very large market, traded internationally, and with a lot of liquidity. It should be assumed that most backroom deals are within 10-20% of the spot price of gold, if not much closer.

On a very rough estimate, 500 million - 1 billion of those ounces might still be retained in "monetary gold" form....big bars and bags of coins in vaults. So, at today's prices, monetary gold might represent about 0.5% of the worlds "money supply".

Compare that to the reserve holding of the European Central Bank in gold.

Just imagine, the knowledgable saver of today may take some of his pay made today, which was paid out to him/her in dollars with less than 1% backing in gold, and phone up Centennial Precious Metals and trade those dollars in for gold coins which are 100% backed in gold....and all that at a price which is barely a premium to the costs of getting the gold out of the ground. Now, if that isn't a very nice "backdoor deal" that will not influence today's spot market. The only thing the buyer must understand, is that on the day he buys, he will have to accept the global spot price (which is being held artificially low) as the peg to which CPM must peg the transaction....It is for this very reason that to date, I have not had the heart to SELL a single gram of the gold or silver I bought....althouh, admittedly, I have given some of it away to friends.

Poor old Solomon

Belgian@Socrates#11172311/13/03; 09:55:00

Can you please elaborate extensively on your statement...There is too much Gold out there...!?

Because I simply think it is exactly the opposite : There is not enough Gold..."AVAILABLE" out there !!!
This is the ..."THE" gold-enigma : A shortage of Gold and a ridiculous low goldprice !? Better even,... offer and demand of Gold are absolutely finetuned and in balance !?
Yep, Gold is just another commodity with some nostalgic monetary aura left around it. Nonsense imo.

Oh yeah...forgot those stupid CBs...disposing off their second biggest reserve-asset...and flooding the gold commodity market with plenty of cheap gold...Why not !?
They have been selling cheap oil for decades, haven't they !? Plenty of oil for generations to come.

Godminers sold 3,000 tonnes of underground gold because they could make as much as half the price of a suit for it...NOW or never !? Smart fellas.

Socrates : Euroland + Asia's CB-dollar-reserves are $ 1 Trillion. This one trillion greenbacks declined 17% against the euro, candidate new reserve currency. This is a decline of 170 Billion $.
And EU + ME + Asia's goldreserves (20,000 tonnes x 390$/Oz) are only priced at 240 Billion $
In other words : The total, non US, 1 Trillion dollar-reserves lost already 170 Billion $ (17%) whilst total goldholdings are only worth 240 Billion $.

Would you, as a central banker, flood the market with more Gold as to contain the price ? Would you accept that your dollar-reserves keep on declining in price-worth against other currencies, without nothing to compensate for ?

The above simple math is my main argument to suspect that the tiny CB-goldreserves against the growing mountain of depreciation dollar-reserves, are MUCH more worth, INTERNALLY !!! Do you see flaws in this reasoning, wich is as simple as can be ? TIA.

DruidAdequate Bullion#11172411/13/03; 10:29:54

Druid: These are my thoughts on the "possibility" of a dual pricing mechanism regarding adequate bullion. Did not the "trade"(which has become legend among us serfs) that almost broke the "bank" entail a demand for physical by a Mr. Soros to which confetti was offered up and accepted? Among the "giants" could there exist a "gentlemen's agreement" about what is put at risk and what is demanded in return? Given all the data about shortages that has been researched and brought too light, it would be "difficult" but not "impossible" for me to believe that the current price is reflective of a "free" market clearing price.
GoldiloxChina#11172511/13/03; 10:31:33

As I think more on this, it sounds like a short-term compromise.

OK, you won't de-peg the currency, so how about some help with the trade deficit? they certainly could have bought vehicles from their strong trading partner Japan.

Win-win situation. China gets rid of some $$, and US gets some foreign trade.

misetichDo Asset Prices Belong in Central Banker Toolkit? Caroline Baum #11172611/13/03; 10:47:59


Misallocation of Capital

Residential real estate is booming in the U.S., and some analysts think stock prices have outrun the fundamentals yet again.

``Ignoring inflation in the asset markets and its potential influence on the allocation -- and misallocation -- of capital can have significant adverse macroeconomic consequences,'' Carson says.

Carson advocates using a broad price index, which includes a weighted average of real estate and stock prices in addition to consumer and producer prices, to assess the stance of monetary policy. Currently, the gap between the growth rate in his proprietary broad price index and the federal funds rate is the widest in 20 years.

One of the side effects of a rapid rise in asset prices is excessive debt accumulation -- to finance even more asset accumulation, Carson says. ``It is this misallocation of capital and rapid asset price inflation that's missed by the current analytical framework (for gauging inflation), creating the risk of another boom/bust cycle.''
``The focus should be on financial stability rather than the stock market.''

Misallocation of capital - right on! Egomaniac Sir Greenspan cure has been to lower IR and print Fed Res Notes aka dollars

Whilst mainstream and WallStreet concentrates on typical recessionary/recovery past performance and thus race ahead discounting an 'automatic' recovery after a recession they do not take in consideration the misallocation of capital which has been misdirected. The housing industry has been the primary beneficiary of this 'misallocation' and whilst "temporary" gains have been obtained to keep the game going - it has created far bigger problems to contend with as funds have been directd to non-reproducing resources and in addition has created a housing bubble as low IR have encouraged speculation

The auto industry has been staying afloat thanks to their "financing" earnings rather than profits on the metal and has kept the industry going even though market share has been lost by American carmakers to foreigners and as a consequence UNEMPLOYMENT in this said industry has been minimal

Its either pay know or pay more lately - The Feds have decided the latter -

US is not Japan? It may not be - but there's an eary feeling that it may be. It takes time to evaluate on how effective the policy reaction is - Japan thought they were right to!

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Low premium, plus free shipping on 25oz, to help you build your financial base#11172711/13/03; 11:29:05">Gold Bullion
BelgianCB reserves : dollars + Gold#11172811/13/03; 11:50:29

EU + Asian dollar-reserves are affected by the changes (rise) of the POO. More oil-imports at increasing prices is draining the dollar-reserves ! Not a problem for the one (US) who is printing his (our) dollars.

US/UK troops are going to stay for ever in Iraq as the military basis in the middle of the Middle East. Read oil-control. More precisely oilprice control. An indirect way of valueing-controlling, not only oil flows to developping nations (Asia)... but also their CB dollar-reserves, through the dollar worth !!!

The same is being done with the second in rang of the CB's reserves, namely goldreserves, that are being contained, for the dollar's sake !

With the above, I want to stress (again) on the importance of the Iraqi occupation. D. de Villepin has been reaching out, 2 hands, over the Atlantic (US) and Northsea (UK). Forget it Dominic ! The immediate reactions + selective silence, said enough. The dollar remains in Iraq and don't try to get your euro back in (decoded this from Condoleeza's answers)!
J.Straw (+ C.Powell) reminded us that Iraq's democratization is in the planet's interest. Amen.

BoilermakerBelgian- Thanks for your 111714#11172911/13/03; 11:59:50

IMHO low IR's only stimulate the economy in a sustainable way when the borrowers invest in projects that create something with real value. The US Fed's low ir's are stimulating asset prices such as housing and stocks. This is a bubble and is not sustainable. The FED can't control where the money goes and its not going where it's needed.

Certainly the world's CB's can see this and should be taking steps to remove themselves from the house the dollar built. I would think that some have already started for the exits and others will when they heard our FED speakers talk about continuous low IR's and no mention of inflation. Seems like bond holders would also be headed for the door. Most of here at the forum left the building long ago.


VanRipWhat, Me Worry??#11173011/13/03; 13:19:33

Caught a few seconds of Larry Kudlow on the radio about an hour ago. Very definite about the Dow being at least 20% undervalued and will hit 12000 easily by next June. The usual reasons - unemployment to decline, economy picking up speed, etc.

He's got a very soothing and confident voice. A lot of people listen to him.

21mabryOil#11173111/13/03; 13:23:08

Recently read an article that in the future the west will fight resource wars based on calculating each soldiers death on the amount of resources that soldiers death would make available to industrialized nations.If their death allows more resources to flow outward than they consume than that would be an appropriate trade off.Of course this is multiplied by thousands of combatants.The world is a scary place and getting more frighting all the time.I have a friend who insists on playing the PM market through paper he is a paper trader I cant get him interested in physical.His comment was let someone else store it for me.21
Socrates964Belgian#11173211/13/03; 13:23:28

Sorry, Belgian, I should have been more explicit.

What I meant was: too much gold out there that is in the private sector beyond the control of the central banks - i.e. the Western central banks don't have a big enough share of the overall physical gold market to maintain a parallel pricing mechanism. (Something they might have been able to do 50 years ago).

Hence, I support the GATA thesis that the Western CBs have dissipated their power to manage the gold price by overdoing the gold leasing thing, but it seems to me that this thesis contradicts your parallel price thesis. If this gold were ultimately going to the Saudis in a secret oil for gold deal in which the transaction price assumes $4000/oz gold then:

EITHER the Saudis have been extraordinarily dumb/lazy not to buy every single gold R&D project in the world and pour their oil billions into producing as much new gold as possible. Maybe I'm missing something here, but I'm not aware of very much Saudi mining activity. And even if they didn't, someone else would. If the Chinese know that the Saudis will give you $4000 of oil for $300 of gold why haven't they been mining gold like crazy since the 1980s. The lack of R&D activity suggests that not only are little investors like myself excluded from the charmed gold market in which gold changes hands at $4000/oz, but so are the mining companies. Or maybe every mining executive in the world has been ordered to rein in production on pain of death. You can build all kinds of conspiracy theories, but I prefer just to look at what prices tell me, even if I confess that I can't get my head round the silver market.

OR You are getting into a shadow price argument, in which both sides agree that the true price of gold may be $4000, but the true price of oil is $300/bl. Or perhaps the true price of gold is $4 billion/oz and the true price of a barrel of oil is $300 million/barrel.

At the end of the day, within a closed market that is not subject to arbitrage from outside, you can claim any level of absolute price, because all that matters is the relative price - 13 barrels of oil per ounce of gold or thereabouts. Since I doubt that academic development economists are running the world's financial markets, this one seems hard to believe. Markets are markets and central bankers are spectacularly bad at controlling them for any length of time. If the Fed can't even control the Treasury market where it has an absolute monopoly on output - can they really control the gold market?

White Hillscurrency reform#11173311/13/03; 14:57:05

This is a little over my head but I will give it a shot. In a previous post I quoted a well know monetary authority of the time in 1979 edition of the December issue of the Silver and Gold Report,SGR, Dr. Franx Pick. This is a little more of that interview having to do with currency reform.

SGR: What specific events would bring a radical currency reform?

Dr. Pick: Undstoppable inflation, balance of payments and budget deficits, record gold and silver prices-these signs tell us that the reform process is already underway. After seeing the futility of IMF and US gold sales, the Administration is considering controls for the economy in the faint hope that this will stop the decline of the greenback. These plans center around wage and price controls and lower taxes. The creation of such will immediately lead to u "unsupervised" wages and prices and the controls will be a flop-even though the public today favor such measures.
As the dollar continues to drop, the amateurs in various government departments will demand stronger controls with heaver penalties for disobedience-iron curtain style-and then,finally, the will propose foreign exchange controls. International transfers of capital would be allowed only under special license, foreign currencies would be surrendered, GOLD would be nationalized, and the futures markets in precious metals would be closed. This will only transfer the trading activity to Canada, England, Switzerland, Singapore and Hong Kong.
One or more foreign countries would stop accepting US dollars. There will then be a statement declaring the US dollar in better shape than ever, and Washington will freeze foreign assets. But all rescue schemes by Treasury officials Central Bank executives will not be able to save the dollar, except by an offical state bankruptcy, for which tranquilizing words will have to found by the public relations artists. We will then see a "temporary" motatoriam on all debts, as well as international payments, the creation of a new currency unit with some link to gold, and the issuance of NEM BANK NOTES against the old ones.eep in mind that although these conditions do not seem to be in the near future, they could be triggered by the refusal of any country to accept dollars in exchange for its currency or products.

SGR: If the currency reform is imposed, how will it affect such things as bank accounts and motgage payments?

Dr. Pick: Savings and checking accounts could be blocked under Emergency Banking Regulation No. 1, but won't be. However, certificates of deposit might face temorary delays of redemption before new legislation copes with the problem. Mortgage payments would probably not be subject to any moratorium, in order to maintain the existance of thrift institutions, which would fold up if their mortgage investments become valueless. Bonds and preferred stock would certainly stop paying interest to their owners which would not only be individuals, but all kinds of instituatios, hospitals and universities. Annuities, already a ridiculous item, may suspend payments or disappear altogether. Life insurance premiums would have to be paid; death benefits would not be affected.

A currency reform completes the expropriation of all kinds of savings of the population. It will be performed with swiftness and brutality; it will wipe out all public and private bonds, most pensions, all annuities, and all endowments. -END OF INTERVIEW-

Keeping in mind that this was all from December 1979 and didn't happen brings the question, was he wrong or is it just that the time line is off. Dr. Pick did expect some kind of currency reform within 12-24 months as the dollar would have dropped to one cent against the 1940 dollar. What happened? As I remember the time we had double digit interest and inflation. Gas prices were soaring and gas lines forming. Taxes were high and wages low, the economy was in poor condition? I have a few ideas but would like to hear from anybody that remembers those times
and can shed some light on those times. With gold rising to a high of over 800.00 in 1981, I think, Dr. pick had predicted all of those things and had expected a currency reform that didn' or hasn't happened. White Hills

GoldiloxThe Rising Price of gold#11173411/13/03; 15:24:43

CNBC is doing a piece on "The Rising Price of Gold" in about 5 minutes. It is so ironic to see all the eye-time they are giving this barbarous relic!!! $400 seems to bring a lot of looky-lu's out of the closet!!!
misetichReality Check: US Lumber Execs Report Soaring Prices In 3Q Nov 13 / 10:16 EST#11173511/13/03; 15:51:21


NEW YORK, Nov. 13 (MktNews) - U.S. lumber prices soared in the
third quarter, driven by supply constraints induced by wet weather and
forest fires, then fanned by a super-hot housing market and urgent
buying in advance of Hurricane Isabel, say industry officials.

Another factor contributing to the price run-up was the weaker
dollar, which helped drive away European and, to a lesser extent,
Canadian wood from the domestic market.
But most wonder whether these
increases will hold - some prices did retreat in October but still held
at fairly elevated levels.

Price inflation rocketing, commodities surging - yet in the wonderful place of Oz at the Federal Reserve and Treasury - we see nothing hear nothing - price inflation is TAME!

On the other hand - there is a witness, a judge and jury to their folly -

GOLD SPEAKS! and the Gold Bull is just in its 1st phase

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

ProtossVanrip#11173611/13/03; 16:02:57

If the DOW is to reach 12,000 the reason I would bet it is due to accelerating inflation. Inflation, the debasement of a currency, prices all 'goods' higher, why not the DOW?

It has been acknowledged umpteen times on this forum the multiple of (times) 10 for gas, groceries, stock markets, gold, etc., etc. since 1975 (or thereabouts).

It is my hope and belief that in the next (now) serious accelerating debasement that gold will 'out-multiple' all other assets. For example the Dow might only double while gold climbs considerably higher. It is even conceivable that the DOW may rise initially (say to 12,000) and then fall off once interest rates begin to rise and this news stuns stock market participants.

The posts today that the FED intend to keep interest rates low for a 'long time' indeed do justice to the inflation scenario and thus is ultra-bullish for gold.

If present rates are held (too low) and as inflation accelerates 'real' interest rates become more and more alarming (negative). It is in this enviroment that gold flourishs. Gold does not care if interest rates and inflation rates are spectacularly high ('70's) or if they are both low. The negligible returns (after inflation) is what excites gold.

The FED is pouring gasoline on the fire the longer they hold rates. Watch the CRB for confirmation of a weaker buck. As inflation gallops ahead of IR, gold will happily gallop as well!

misetichHealth Care Is Making Labor Sick#11173711/13/03; 16:03:30


Is the U.S. system of employer-based health care starting to buckle under the return of double-digit medical inflation? That's the fear of labor, women's group, and civil-rights leaders, who have been speaking out in support of 85,000 striking grocery workers, mostly in Southern California.
With cost hikes lifting family coverage to an average of more than $9,000 a year, a growing number of employers are doing away with health coverage for some workers.

Double digit PRICE INFLATION in health costs - Wall Street is not worried- Corporations are adapting and cutting health costs benefits down passing the buck down to their employees -

The trend is clear - corporate earnings are improving through the elimination of jobs, and curtailing paid benefits and wages

Consumers are getting hit with a double barrel - loss of jobs and/or reduced total remunaration

Certainly not the recepi the doctor ordered for an economic recovery

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

WaveriderCIA warns Iraqi revolt about to take off #11173811/13/03; 16:14:43,4386,219808,00.html

"A top-secret report by the United States Central Intelligence Agency paints a bleak picture of an Iraq that is approaching a crucial turning point. The report, which was sent to Washington on Monday by the CIA's Baghdad station chief, suggests that the situation is creating a more fertile environment for the anti-American insurgency. A top US commander told the Washington Post that recent high-profile attacks on US and allied forces appeared so methodical and well-crafted that some military officers now fear that this may be the war ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and his generals planned all along."

Waverider: I think this last sentence is absolutely true. Saddam chose his strategy and timing which includes not only terrorist tactics but maximum impact on the US economy as we entre into the Vietnam phase. Misetich raised an interesting point yesterday - what are the options for the US? Expediting the transfer of power to the Iraqis is a bandaid solution as terrorism won't be arrested until the US occupation is halted. But will the US leave - I don't think it will even be considered because the real reason for their presence is oil. The US has successfully developed a quagmire so horrendous I don't see a solution at this stage. Meanwhile the Gold Bull continues as investors come to realize the economic impact of the Iraq war on the US economy *and* the futility of the situation in the ME.

misetichOdds Favor Gold Close Above $400 on Friday!#11173911/13/03; 16:51:36

Jim Sinclair


If gold doesn't close tomorrow above $400, don't worry it will happen next week. Consider for a moment the following musing from gold's strong man, Richard Russell, as he outlines the way the Asian world views the present US administration and its management of the US dollar. Think hard about this before you decide to do anything.
Jim quotes Richard Russell

November 12, 2003 – Richard Russell

The Bush administration says that next year's federal budget deficit will be $500 billion, better known at half a trillion dollars. Then add the $87 billion that Congress just OK'd to partly cover the cost of Afghanistan and Iraq. OK, that puts the deficit a $587 billion. But this doesn't count the $217 billion that the government is borrowing from the Social Security trust. That takes the deficit to $804 billion. Then there's the added cost of the tax cuts, prescription drugs and other special expenses and items, and you're talking about an actual deficit of probably over $1 trillion dollars.

How wild can it get? In the next few years I believe we are going to see just how wild it can get! My advice to my loyal subscribers is that "You better own some gold."

The inimitable Mr. Sinclair - putting his money where his mouth is -GOLD -

Richard Russell is probably light in his $804 billion dollar deficit - as the funding for the planned Neo-Con agenda will increase not decrease - Rumor of ANOTHER 20 billion request for Iraq - Afghanista -sometime next year

and sticking to geopolitical arena - China just threw an arrow in Taiwan's direction accusing them of promoting independence which mainland would never approve and North Korea is busy readyng themselves for an eventual attack -

Iran has thus far out manuveured the US re: nuclear arms as the UN and US are now again at odds

Odds are the costs to carry out this NeoCons "military control activities' can only go one way and that is UP thus the projected deficit for the future will be much much higher - and could go much much higher if Homeland Security holes are exploited

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetichSmall But Noteworthy Source of Inflation in 2004#11174011/13/03; 17:03:43


Today's Wall Street Journal reported, on page 1, an interesting aspect about trucking costs which caught our attention – "Cost of Trucking Seen Rising Under New U.S. Safety Rules." We applaud the effort to promote safe driving of freight trucks, there are no arguments about it. We are pointing out here that higher trucking costs will show up as higher prices for tomatoes, toys, and everything that is hauled across the nation. According to this article, 81% of the freight-transportation bill comes from trucks. Industry analysts expect truck rates to rise by 4% -7% in 2004, nearly half of this gain is attributed to the changes from the new regulation, which will be effective January 2004. In addition, "the failure of 11,700 trucking companies" during the recent economic downswing has resulted in a tight supply situation also. Market participants need to take heed of this development and add it to the list of factors that will add to inflation in 2004.

Trucking freight costs going higher ! not to worry the Feds will eliminate the cost of this higher item from CPI calculations through the substitution/productivity miracle

With the US $ tanking, higher import prices will hit shore within the next little while

Sir Greenspan better hope that the hyptonized public doesn't wake - and hyptonized they're since few have realized GOLD GAINS in the last few years that have surpassed all other investment vehicles, such as Bonds, Stocks

US is not headed for inflation its HYPERINFLATION - STAGFLATION and Asset Defletion

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

Cavan ManNews of the WIERD (imho)#11174111/13/03; 18:22:46

France and Germany plan deeper union for 'core' EU
By John Lichfield in Paris
13 November 2003

Paris and Berlin are considering plans for a "union of France and Germany" which would allow the two allies, and ancient enemies, to merge their foreign and defence polities and co-operate more closely on education and the economy.

The idea, which would stop well short of a single state with one leader and political system, is seen as a way of creating an indissoluble, "hard" core for the European Union when it expands to 25 member states next year. Although vaguely discussed for many years, the idea of a Franco-German union has been urged recently in private conversations by Jean-Pierre Raffarin, the French Prime Minister, and Dominique de Villepin, the Foreign Minister, the French newspaperLe Monde reported yesterday.

M. De Villepin said that a Franco-German union was "the only historic gamble that we cannot possibly lose".

"I never wanted to belong to any club that would have me as a member" Groucho (and CM)

21mabryFree Gold#11174211/13/03; 18:35:09

I was reading an article about bimetalism in early america.After the revolution to the end of the Jacksonian era.The battle between paper'silver,and gold was raging.The author made the point either silver or gold should have been the standard not both.Bimetalism made both metals the captive of the other.He put forth the idea silver should have been used and gold allowed to move free to its own level.The author used the term free gold.Some have used this term on the forum.Is this part of the idea of free gold?21
Black BladeQuick Update – DMR#11174311/13/03; 18:41:01

I sure have been missing the fun lately as Gold has reached higher over the last few days. For those wondering - I hope to have the DMR updated on Monday though I had hoped it would be sooner (this week). It's "Murphy's Law" of course. A couple of small projects went smooth as silk and the other is plagued by logistics, weather, and equipment failures. Hopefully tomorrow or the day after this one too will be completed followed by a weekend of writing reports.

The big news of course is the weaker US dollar and Treasury Sec. Snow actually admitting that the US would like a weaker dollar. Add to that the widening trade deficit and ballooning US budget deficit and precious metals are slated for greater gains. No wonder too that Asian interest is gaining as their governments are getting poised for a global inflation and the "smart money" is taking their lead.

Oh yeah, and a bit "off topic" – this might explain my taste for Negra Modelo:

Nov. 11, 2003 (Orlando, Fla.) -- The real beer argument is not "Tastes great" vs. "Less filling." It's dark vs. light, and the winner, according to a University of Wisconsin heart researcher, is dark brew because it can help prevent blood clots. John D. Folts, PhD, professor of medicine and director of the coronary thrombosis research laboratory at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, tells WebMD that dark beer is rich in flavonoids, which have powerful antioxidant effects.

Black Blade: I knew there had to be a reason (see link). ;-)

Off to the gym for a couple of hours.

WaveriderYahooo.....Black Blade's back...#11174411/13/03; 18:53:43

Welcome back BB - you HAVE been missed! And what the're BOTH good for the coronaries, so ENJOY! Cheers,

Cavan ManBlack must be more specific lad....#11174511/13/03; 19:28:24

Guinness For Strength!

Beer drinkers' guide to a healthier heart
By Jeremy Laurance, Health Editor
13 November 2003

It is the beer that refreshes the parts other beers cannot reach. But the refreshing beverage is not Heineken but Guinness. In a development that backs the advertising slogan "Guinness is good for you", scientists have found the famous Irish stout reduces the risk of blood clots that cause heart attacks.

Cavan Man@BB#11174611/13/03; 19:30:43

....and let me tell you about that first sip of "mother's milk" I had in Galway at the annual over Oysters and an English (actually New Jersey) the cups...CM
Great Albino BatGAB checking in from PARIS...#11174711/13/03; 20:15:00

black blade....about Negra Modelo beer. the name is merchandising via a play on words in Spanish. first one must understand that the name was invented when beer drinking in Mexico was done mostly by males. Negra means black girl and is a term used affectionately by Mexican men for their dark skinned girlfriend. So there you have sex linked to the color of the beer. Thanks to your comments I have switched yo deliscious Negra Modelo and you know the saying...once you go black you never go back GOLD maybe 400 tomorrow and we MAY have a buying panic very soon. 400 will seem dirt cheap. by the way, I checked the price of a pretty ashtray, antique signed by DAUM and some 7 or 8 inches in dia. the pricewas just about ONE KILO of gold. NO deal of course but this just shows that gold is tremendously UNDERVALUED and has a LONG way to go. How much would you pay for an antique ashtray? Well, i would be willing to sacrifice maybe ONE OUNCE! That puts gold at $11,500/oz.! The GAB hanging out in Paris.
CytekSpot, i have a big bone for you - jump#11174811/13/03; 21:14:34

check out open interest at futersource.


VanRipLook Out Africa#11174911/13/03; 21:33:08,11538,1084958,00.html

UK and US in joint effort to secure African oil

VanRip: When Bush was traveling around Africa not too long ago on some pretext, my reaction was it's all about oil, expecially when his last stop was Nigeria. Now this from the Guardian. The scariest line: "The countries have agreed "a set of coordinated actions to help achieve our objectives ACROSS THE WORLD."(my caps)

The government is helping the US to secure a guaranteed supply of oil from new sources in Africa and elsewhere, official documents obtained by the Guardian reveal.
According to an internal memo to George Bush and Tony Blair, cooperation between the two governments has already delivered "immediate... substantial benefits".

The decision to act was taken at a private summit at the president's Texas ranch in April last year.

The joint initiative may be formally announced by Mr Bush and Mr Blair at their summit in London, which starts next Wednesday.
The big British and American energy companies have been given favoured access to the discussions between the governments, taking part in meetings with officials.
Officials had "compared notes on specific areas where we could work together to leverage resources effectively and avoid duplication of effort". These areas include Nigeria, Sao Tome, Equatorial Guinea and Angola.

Black Blade$400 Gold #11175011/13/03; 23:10:21

As we approach the "psychological" $400 an ounce level the question is will Gold march steadily onward or pull back on profit taking by "weak hands" tomorrow? Personally I simply do not know nor do any of the analysts either for that matter. There is much discussion on the topic by analysts over the last couple of days. I will post a nice little DMR update for morning viewing with these comments as the clock rolls over into tomorrow's posting as I will not be here during New York trade. Just a couple of weeks ago many (if not most) were writing up precious metals articles befitting an obituary column. Now some are quite excited about the possible surge past $400 an ounce level. I suspect that there could be a bit of a pull back but then we have also seen gold pull back as Gold hit higher lows only to move higher in one leg up after another. These markets do not move in a straight line, but consider all that is in favor of higher prices in the precious metals sector.

On the "nector of the Gods", yes Guinness is a nice Porter but don't discount Sierra Nevada's porter either. As far as Negra Modelo I would also have to say that Modelo's "golden" Modelo Especial is good too. An interesting story on beer is that monks many centuries ago brewed up this "concoction" were worried about the consumption on the "side effects" of this brew and how it would be recieved by their superiors in Rome. They petitioned Rome on whether it was acceptable to brew and consume beer. As the church in Rome was more inclined to accept wine the ruling clergy tasted the "foul bitter" brew presented to them and commended the monks for "suffering" and "enduring" the drink showing such devotion. Little did they know.

- Black Blade

Gandalf the WhiteSPOT is getting ready, Sir Cytek !!! The "Roo" meat is defrosting !#11175111/13/03; 23:16:11

GREAT data table, Sir Cytek !
YES, the OI has been INCREASING in BOTH Dec and Feb Contracts.
Would it not be joyous to think that a goodly number of those 188K wish to take delivery ?
One can dream, cannot one ?

Liberty HeadCause For Celebration#11175211/13/03; 23:23:44

Faith and beggora laddies.
What better way to celebrate $400 gold than a 24oz bottle of Guiness extra stout?
For that matter, what better way to celebrate $396.45 gold than a 24oz bottle of Guiness extra stout? :-)
I'm off to Lamoille.

Best Wishes

GoldendomeSir Mabry in your post 111742--The author wished a Silver Standard and Free Gold#11175311/13/03; 23:27:36

During official U.S. bimetallism the mintage ratio ranged from 15/1 (silver to gold) from 1792 to 16/l after 1834. Today the ratio is, I believe, about 75/1 !!! Holy Cow!!---I think your author got his wish...Gold certainly appears to have been freed from Silver! [Now if we can just free gold from the fiat paper markets--dollar--futures.] I believe the situation in the ratio today (mainly the poor price showing of Silver) reflects just how tarnished this once shining metal has become in the eyes of those seeking "real, or hard" money.

Gold has managed to hold on to and maintain it's luster as real money, even in the face of intense pressure from the "dark dollar forces" that have sought to destroy it's monetary standing (particularly, I feel in the public's eyes).

Can we get Silver going again? Can it be resurrected to it's also rightful place as a monetary storehouse of value? Can it break the bounds of it's intrinsic commodity value, to once again soar with it's Golden Kin?....I think the answer is yes. As gold breaks out against the dollar, silver will follow, but from a lower starting point dollar wise and ratio wise (this may be important to those not in the precious metal markets today). As gold is priced beyond the means of those wishing to save themselves belatedly from the dollar collapse and the ravages that follow: Silver will return to a rightful place in the storehouse of human labor and production. A store of value, purchasing power, and wealth that will soar with gold, but in the lower reaches as to be accessible to those that missed the golden express.


Further, The great monetary battles of the late 19th century involved whether or not the U.S. should buy Silver [at all in quantity] and coin it into dollars that on a monetary basis were worth a dollar, but in relation to weight of Gold (same monetary value) were worth only 90 cents, most of the time. The Bland-Allison act of the 1870's and the Silver purchase act of 1890 were attempts by mainly agrarian, rural, and western mining areas to stem the tide of deflation brought about by the world wide shortage of Gold, after nearly the entire world had converted to the Gold Standard in the last quarter of the 19th century, leaving a flood of Silver on the market at depressed prices.


Gandalf the WhiteBTW -- The US$ is nearing the 91.0 LOW again !! #11175411/13/03; 23:35:13

Did I hear that Mr. Show now wanted a "WEAK Dollar" ?

slingshotMidas Crusade#11175511/14/03; 00:18:42

The next days march was a somber one. All that was heard was the sounds of movement of the column. The sun that had trickled down through the branches was now blocked by cloud cover. The wind had picked up and when they reached the edge of the forest, they could see a mountain range in the distance. The Rhodin Gorge lay before them. Sir M.K. sent riders ahead as there was a days ride with open land. The cheers of "To Hammerton" were silenced. When the Goldbugs reached a point about half way they stopped to rest. Sir M.K. then took the parchment from within his cloak, unrolled it and read the message. His face became like stone as he remembered the messenger on the Field of Years. But his eyes burned like fire. He turn around to see Gandalf and Lady Waverider but did not speak. He dismounted and walked a ways into the countryside. He stood alone and looked at the gorge that now could been seen as a cut in the mountain range.
A short time passed and he returned and climbed upon his horse and with an abrupt whirl of his steed shouted out, " Let no one stand in our way" "To Hammerton"
His voice rang true and clear and a renewal from those who seen this act, reverberated down the line. "To Hammerton",echoed in the distant mountains.


USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#11175611/14/03; 01:15:58">
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

An early update as we head into the weekend. Will Gold surpass the $400 mark today, next week or next month? The DMR is a collection of recent thoughts and analyses of market watchers. There is so much in favor of higher precious metals prices as the US dollar weakens and geopolitical tensions increase.

Jon H. Warner

slingshotTo $400 and Beyond#11175711/14/03; 02:47:27

Well I won't backdown.
No, I won't backdown.
You can stand me up at the gates of Hell.
But I won't back down.

Now I stand my ground.
Won't be turned around.
And I keep this world from dragging me down.
Gonna stand my ground.

Hey Baby, There ain't no easy way out.

Hey,I will stand my ground.
and I won't back down.
Tom Petty

Some early morning Rock and Roll for the breaking of the $400 resistance.


tommychart#11175811/14/03; 03:42:46
DummyANIMitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:#11175911/14/03; 03:59:42

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close
Oct. 20 62,631c plus2224c...372.2
Oct. 21 67,474c plus4843c...374.4
Oct. 22 58,163. minus9311c...382.0 <---wrong-short
Oct. 23 49,538. minus8625c...386.8 <---wrong-short
Oct. 24 46,545. minus2993c...385.0
Oct. 27 50,838c plus4293c...389.2
Oct. 28 49,296. minus1542c...388.2
Oct. 29 51,053c plus1757c...383.4
Oct. 30 53,108c plus2055c...387.0
Oct. 31 51,174. minus1934c...384.4
Nov. 04 50,855. minus0319c...377.1
Nov. 05 49,206. minus1649c...380.0 <---wrong-short
Nov. 06 49,651c plus0445c...382.7
Nov. 07 51,679c plus2028c...380.7
Nov. 10 51,341. minus0338c...383.4
Nov. 11 51,722c plus0381c...386.7
Nov. 12 52,927c plus1205c...388.2
Nov. 13 61,349c plus8422c...395.0
Nov. 14 62,053c plus0704c...394.3

D-ANI: A rising CRB is attacking on commercial-shorts from all directions.
A crude oil is rising over $32 per barrel, at least $34, may be $38.
CRB will be rising at least nearly 290 points, if aided by a secular war-economy, rising at 330 points level.
Until CRB attains nearly 290 points, Gold will be rising at least $430 per ounce, if possible , gaining at $470 per ounce.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.An Invitation to Prospective Clients....#11176011/14/03; 05:36:17">News and Views
The Invisible HandRoland Leuschel Ueber Alles#11176111/14/03; 05:49:00

Now (i.e. last Wednesday) he seems to be saying to put your portfolio mainly in gold as panic is coming and gold will surpass the $ 1,000 border and even that gold will make a come back in the monetary system.

Ich halte an meinem Szenario fest und schliesse nach wie vor eine Weltwirtschaftskrise II nicht aus. Ich empfehle nach wie vor einen Grossteil Ihres Portefeuilles auf Goldbasis zu legen, denn sowohl bei einer Schuldendeflation als auch bei einer riesigen Inflationswelle wird der Goldpreis weit über die 1.000 Dollargrenze steigen. Der Tag, an dem das allgemeine Vertrauen in den US-Dollar schwindet, ist näher, als sie glauben. Und vergessen Sie nicht die Worte des auch am 29. November in München sprechenden Amerikaners Harry Schultz: « If you panic, panic first ! » Und die Panik wird kommen !
Ich habe übrigens Anfang 2000 Harry Schultz in meiner Kolumne zitiert mit seinem berühmten Wort : « If you panic, panic first ! » Ich werde unter anderem auf die ausführliche Studie einer der grössten Investmentbanken zurückkommen, in der bei einem möglichen Comeback von Gold in das Währungssystem die theoretischen Gleichgewichtsgoldpreise berechnet wurden :

misetichHouse prices sizzle - Costs are soaring in many regions, but Dallas' gains are modest#11176211/14/03; 05:54:25


Home prices in more than 40 U.S. metro areas experienced double-digit growth for the third quarter, compared with a year earlier.
ut those increases were nothing compared to what's going on in some other areas of the country.

In Riverside, Calif., home resale prices were up 26.5 percent in the third quarter. And in Los Angeles, prices spiked 25.4 percent.

Feds and Wall Street claim there is no price inflation - no housing bubble

The "quick fix" strategy and relief implemented by the Feds is creating havoc amongst investors and the economy

Market funds are in Negative Earnings territory

Stock Market valuations have already a US recovery priced in

US $ has already priced in forecasted US GDP growth of 4% for next year

Long-Term Bonds are inching up - Mortgages rates over 6% and climbing

House prices skyrocketing fuelled by debt and speculation

Commodities soaring

Import prices rising - health costs rising - energy costs rising

Corporations are continuing layoffs - as per Challenger's October report

....add the twin deficits, pension plans underfunding, mutual funds scandals, derivatives "sewage" and a few geopolitical events such as the Iraq quagmiere and you have the recipe for.......


All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

TownCrierA cool $190,000 in gold pictured in the Financial Times#11176311/14/03; 07:03:22

The front page of middle section of the US edition of the Financial Times features an eye-catching stack of 15 kilo bars of gold.

Hugh Hendry, a fund manager at Odey Asset Management, is quoted in an associated article next to the picture saying,
"There is more money being pumped int the markets and it is going into real assets like gold. As the US government prints more dollars to fund its growing buget deficit, the less the dollar is worth in people's pockets, so they are turning to other assets like gold that have a store of value."

Later in the article John Reade of UBS says,
"In gold, we are seeing more long-term investors, who see a continued weakening of the US dollar. Previously, typical gold investors would have been looking at the next 10 days or the next $10; that's not the case now."

Anything in mainstream media that helps raise general investor awareness to gold represents a turn for the better.

See our own link above for inspiration, then call the friendly and knowledgeable brokers at USAGOLD-Centennial today to discuss a diversification strategy that's right for you. (800) 869-5115


Clink!@ White Hills#11176411/14/03; 07:10:21

I think you need to walk a little along the trail - the answer to why the dollar didn't collapse is dealt with at length in Archive I. Enjoy !

a nation of one.#11176511/14/03; 08:02:15

...396th floor..., shirts, socks, underwear and shoes...going up...?
Goldilox400th Floor?#11176611/14/03; 09:00:25

It's getting dizzy up here!!!
adminNews & Views#11176711/14/03; 09:09:24


Breaking gold news. You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

Mr Greshamtee-hee#11176811/14/03; 09:21:54

Jes' remember, any reporters come around asking for a man-on-the-forum comment, I ain't around. (Prob'ly catch me out on MK's side porch, NM in hand, anyway.)

Cheers to all at our sister/neighbor Forums! You do GOOD WORK. If not today we go over, then whenever...

GoldiloxIt's a dog eat dog world!#11176911/14/03; 09:28:27

Who are you betting on? NASDog or Spot and Spike? I'll take the tag team, thanks.

Woof Woof!

Gondolin$399.80#11177011/14/03; 09:34:25

Getting close there....
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Real gold, real easy. Delivered to your door.#11177111/14/03; 10:03:31

Dutch Guilders

Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

Call USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals
(800) 869-5115

Gandalf the WhiteFIRST COMEX "charge" was repulsed at $399.4 ! <;-(#11177211/14/03; 10:22:16

WHO said that this would be easy ?
The Goldhearts are GOING to win this battle, and the WAR to FREE GOLD !!
There is no other way !

Gandalf the WhiteLooks as if the NON-Delivery paper contract owners are starting ---#11177311/14/03; 10:39:52

to move out of Dec contracts and into Feb 04 contracts !
That may be helping to keep the $400. barrier a little higher that otherwise.
"ONWARD to Hammerton !"

Paper Avalanche@ Gandalf......#11177411/14/03; 11:00:35

I'm still betting that the COMEX changes the rules (increases margin requirements, etc.) within two trading days of gold closing above $400 the previous day. This will likely mark the beginning of the separation of physical and paper gold given that there now exist other price discovery mechanisms for gold (i.e. Shanghai and Dubai exchanges) that did not exist just twenty four short months ago.

I may be wrong. I often am.

Take care.


GoldiloxCNBC coverage#11177511/14/03; 11:31:45

CNBC just gave a spot to Ian McDonald, VP of PMs for Commerzbank. He validated all of our bullish evidence EXCEPT inflation. He looks more more commercial investment in gold discovery if we push through $400-410.

So o o o- $255 to 400 represents NO inflation????

ZhishengUp into the Close!#11177611/14/03; 11:32:35

$397.35 and looking good.

Good point Gandalf, about rolling over to February. December closed at $398 and February at $399.40.

a nation of oneTo Paper Avalanche (11/14/03; 11:00:35MT - msg#: 111774)#11177711/14/03; 11:35:01

If I may just chip in here, what you say makes sense.
There are a couple of other factors that could also make a
big difference. New York is not the whole world. Nor is it
even the center any more, not even of North America in
some ways, which formerly it was. It hasn't realized this
yet. But if New York has to take its real place in the
world, then it will have to be smaller. Therefore its
influence on these markets is going to decline. This might
have a number of very good outcomes. One might be that it
will have to reduce its own peculiar preferences and
habits, as they regard everyday trading, and this would
mean that the people working in these markets
professionally would have to compete with other markets in
appealing to people's need to feel they are being dealt
with in good faith. It could turn out that the paper
market's corrupt desire and tendency to violate its own
stated principles and rules will come to be seen for what
they are: an actually Bezantine labyrinth of arcane
insider crooked dealings. If these come more to light,
comex would become irrelevant. The only way out of this,
that I see, is for it to intentionally become not only the
best quality market in the world, but also the most
impartial and honest.

Right now it is an arrogant and dishonest one that is
likely to get knocked down several notches.

Gandalf the WhiteFriday 11/14/03 COMEX contracts#11177811/14/03; 12:28:48

Month --------------- Session Pr.Day
-------Open---High---Low----Last---Time--Sett---Chg--- Vol Ticks Settle OpInt
Dec 03 $396.5 $399.4 $394.2 $397.8 13:39 $398.0 +$3.7 67,638
Feb 04 $396.8 $400.5 $395.3 $399.4 13:30 $399.1 +$3.7 12,995
Let's see if this works !

Gandalf the WhiteALMOST !#11177911/14/03; 12:33:15

JUST take out the "Vol Ticks Settle" BEFORE the Open Interest !
HERE is ANOTHER source too !

Cometosesilver#11178011/14/03; 12:38:40

The weekly chart shows that SILVER closed up into the close at a level for the close that has not been seen since June of 2000....

I'm just cojitating on some of the recent posts and news articles as i look at the GOLD and Silver charts.....and thinking (in terms of Snow on account of where I live in the Colorado Mountains) as to the impending snow slide that often precedes an avalance as the different layers begin to give way in its relationship to all securies that have been loaded onto the public pensions ... in Mutual funds domestically and internationally that are interest rate related ...... I'm thinking about recent interest rate hikes in U K and Canada ???? and the propensity of fundmanagers to year end selling .... and sector rotation light of what they must feel Bond markets........

I'm thinking about how our freinds in the TALKING HEAD SUITS are now beginning to point .......( Picure a Golden Retriever or Black Lab heavy panting in the background ) in the direction and giving attention to the slight din being made over the metals and precious metals mining sector......

The ignition caused by the selling pressure in these interest rate sensitive markets ( ....and they are myriad and vast) may cause a stellar launch that could catch the fencesitters quite by suprise relative to the speed at which these markets can catch fire.......

If you add ...... BUFFET and SOROS and TEMPLETON comments,
War , and unknowns ........meteors ,Solar Flares, VOLCanoes. and HUMAN STUPIDITY / FRAILTY.......

you have an interesting mix for a CHERRY to add onto the top of a very nice SUNDAE......


Cometosemajor market indexes#11178111/14/03; 14:03:32

Looks like the overbought Nasdaq may lead all the market indexes down again like the last time...... a break under the 1900 mark on the futures could be all it takes to have a little slide
Paper AvalancheDo you have avalanche insurance?#11178211/14/03; 14:28:28

This from today's gubmint release:

"The 0.8 percent increase in the Labor Department's producer price index was the biggest since March and more than the median forecast for a 0.2 percent rise. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the so-called core index rose 0.5 percent, also the largest in seven months."

Tick tock.

Call our fine host to preserve the fruit of your labor. Someone is out to steal it from you with infinite paper promises.


R PowellAs said by the Rolling Stones...CONGRATULATIONS...#11178311/14/03; 14:55:55

Gandalf, nice weekly close for your chart today. Many so-called gold experts (the well known bulls) had been speculating that a pullback was due but instead we approach the big 400. I first noticed during the contests that seeing your COMEX numbers every day gives a better perspective of a bigger (longer time) picture. Thanks

Paper Avalanche: Increased margin requirements are not unusual for any market that suddenly becomes very volatile. Usually, the increase will force those holding a losing position to liquidate (offset) their position while those with paper gains have those gains to use to hold their positions. However, greater margin does discourage some new, lightly financed players from entering the game. There's a real possibility that your forecast will become a reality when the POG really gets going. It will happen with most commodities

To All: I often read on different commodity forums in my constant search for information. I try to filter out the enthusiasm of some posters while looking for facts and considering the logic behind the opinions expressed. Many of the members of such forums are highly motivated and very competitive individuals. Correct market predictions gain applause while bad calls often do not pass unnoticed. It's sometimes a cruel game.

My purpose in explaining this is as an introduction to my wishing to congratulate those who have participated here, both current and some not lately heard from, over a great length of time. The many discussions, the information given and the sources cited have all matured (mellowed like a fine wine) into a long term opinion, view or (if you like) a prediction which has for a few years now been unfolding according to the script foretold. It continues to unfold and imho will soon (relative term as I am a long term investor) accelerate. I believe the POG will have an easier climb from $400 to $500 than it had from $300 to $400. Sharp pullbacks will probably be encountered and the wall of worry is still before the market but, overall, the climb may seem easier from here on. But enough of my silly predictions, this post's purpose is to shout Applause to all, not just some or those who readily agreed with what most wanted to hear but to all.

Hey guys, it really looks like we were right!

I certainly hope some financial benefit is gained from whatever form your investments take and that the gains continue. My understanding of markets (along with the aforementioned years of analysis) leads me to believe that what is transpiring is still not universally noticed and, quite possibly, has just begun! Traders might say that the market is now confirming the analysis. And it's about time, I'm getting tired of finishing concrete, especially in the cold weather.

D-ANI: CRB at 290? I believe so, even without a major inflation of the prices of goods and services. Thanks for the daily reports.
Happy weekend one and all!

Cavan ManDebt Bomb#11178411/14/03; 15:03:59

Nov 14, 2:46 PM (ET)


WASHINGTON (AP) - The record-setting pace of new personal bankruptcies continued in the 12 months ending Sept. 30, with their number rising 7.8 percent, according to data released Friday.

Personal bankruptcies jumped to 1,625,813 from 1,508,578 during the same period a year earlier, Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts data show.

The upward trend had been expected to continue despite signs of recovery in the economy and as effects still linger from the consumer spending binge of the 1990s. The rate of bankruptcies generally lags other economic indicators.

BelgianThis never happened before....#11178511/14/03; 15:14:06

Lilliputan, Belgian, financial channel (kanaal-Z) is explicitely suggesting to buy/accumulate Physical Gold !
Repeat... "Physical" ! Uptake (investment) of Gold is rising. This Gold-message was accompagnied with a firm statement that one should get out of bonds and sell stocks AND DOLLAR !!! Waww...(they finally understood...pfffffttt)


Expect... AND profit, from all paper-gold counterattacks !

The European constitution "MUST" be a succes ! It would be catastrophic if not accepted. Giscard has a few nice ideas to make it happen...sssssshhhtttttt !

NIA (no investment advise at all...only a strict personal opinion)

Goldbug 1Let's hear it for Fur Face!#11178611/14/03; 15:14:14

He dined on a prime cut of Roo today.
Belgian@ Rich Powell#11178711/14/03; 15:36:33

Nice post Sir...but we are NOT there, yet...! All (more) hens on deck to "align" all Golden knights and ladies (first timers, newbies and friends) with their nose, slowly but steadily, pointed to the same direction ! We have to get much better in communicating (explaning-exploring), Gold's changing fundamentals ! Changes are happening !

The more mistakes we detect, the more we learn and adjust !
Continiously, Well informed, Goldphiles, can overcome many setbacks on the road to Gold's revaluation. They are watching us...while we keep hammering *ON* the top of the Golden nail ! Nice WE to all.

Paper Avalanche@ Belgian#11178811/14/03; 16:41:30

I was thinking about your earlier post on the way home. You stated:

"Lilliputan, Belgian, financial channel (kanaal-Z) is explicitely suggesting to buy/accumulate Physical Gold !"

I cannot help but wonder the following: If the EMU is now sounding the alarm to its citizens to convert paper trash to physical gold, how much longer will China wait to sound the same alarm and move to allow (promote) physical ownership / trading for the 1.6 billion Chinese citizens who have an affinity for gold and silver. This increased liberalization of the gold and silver market in China is certain (per the PBOC), but the time table for such a move has been a closely held secret of the Chinese PTB.

Something tells me that China will not want to be playing catch up to the EMU and have its citizens miss what is turning out to be the single greatest monetary change of our lifetime.

I am guessing that China opens physical gold trading to citizens within 90 days or less.

As always, I may be wrong. I have been many times before.


Jing ZuGreat Synopsis! @Belgian & @ Rich Powell#11178911/14/03; 16:45:01

Wonderful posts... I couldn't agree with ya'll more!
I have learned wisdom from this forum and the good minds of all those here.

Keep it going....

With much respect,

Jing Zu

Paper AvalancheTHE Event.....#11179011/14/03; 16:47:33

If memeory serves me, it is anticipated by the sages who contributed to the Golden Trail that there will be a single event that will create an overnight evaporation of available physical gold. And, if gold has not already done so prior to this event, it will certainly mark the separation of physical and paper gold (and the collapse of the paper gold market).

I beleive that the impending announcement by China that they have made physical ownership / trading of gold legal for their citizens may, in fact, be this event.


PizzAnother Skirmish, or. . . .#11179111/14/03; 17:34:53

You don't see markets lined up like this on a Friday too often:

Gold and silver perched right below major breakout levels.

Dollar sitting on the edge of a cliff, along with stocks and bonds.

Money supply imploding downwards right along with velocity - the liquidity is there, but the loan demand to get it into circulation has evaporated and based upon everthing I see, will get worse.

Housing in a blow off.

Capital and liquidity vacating the US.

Tax revenue down and government spending thru the roof and getting worse on both counts.

Recovery, or was it like this in Russia or Argentina right before the collapse?


Over the past couple of years I've made numerous statements regarding deflation, and that it was not an option. The only way out was to inflate.

Well, it appears to me that the money creation that was supposed to rebuild, rejuvinate, and inflate our debt away, has gone overseas to greener pastures.

All the big names are pulling their money, so with most of the big money votes in, and not in the US's favor, I'll have to change my tune regarding deflation.

Anything supported by debt (autos, housing, - heck anything put on a credit card in lieu of having cash) will have a very rough time catching a bid anywhere near current prices.

The plan didn't work, and I would not be suprised to see the DOW gold ratio hit 1:1 in less time than it takes to cash in a 401K or mutual fund account.

Kind of like free-falling in an elevator. We could hit bottom before we realize the problem. Kind of what happens when the bulk of support for paper has been intervention. . . .


Hey Rich, I wonder how many have an "ability to make change for gold" plan? Got a good gram scale good to .001 for our Ag stash (smile).


PizzHey PA#11179211/14/03; 17:46:16

Guess I'm not the only one thinking about near overnight "adjustments".

I'd be more inclined for a major ist event on our shores to decimate the markets.

It would not take too much of anything to spook the herd, just like on the old westerns - it gets way too quiet, everyone a bit nervous (like now - and even us, who are more prepared, but fearful of major change, etc.)

At least in the Cuban Missle crisis, the public was somewhat aware of what was going on. . .not now with about 99% thinking about what they are going to buy with the next credit card coming in. . .


ToolieIrresponsible Speculation#11179311/14/03; 20:42:23

How can the creeping socialism be stopped? Its roots were planted deep 90 years ago with the introduction of the income tax and direct-democratic election of U.S. Senators. These roots grew with the stock market crash of ’29. Gold confiscation enabled currency growth that led to Social Security. F.D.R. bragged that once in place, it could never be uprooted. The great society sprouted into the welfare state with the rejection of personal responsibility. Fed by the continuous growth in the money supply, this weed has blossomed into a "where's mine" society. The path to prosperity is now organizing and lobbying for an advantage.

The fall of the USSR was a pole shift in the political world. No longer was the world to be divided into two halves. At the time, insightful people may have recognized the vacuum created will be filled. If left unattended, a replacement "evil empire" would have quickly coalesced.

Free trade agreements and monitory expansion are IMHO, a blunt tool that is being cleverly used to align nations to the remaining pole. When this alignment has gone as far as it can, the new evil empire is born of the remaining nations. From a policy makers perspective this argument must have great appeal. It weakens potential adversaries and delays the formation of the Replacement Empire. It finds wide support among the people of the USA, as it promises increased business and tax revenue.

It has puzzled me for some time to hear/read people, whom I consider to be bright, regard the export of US high tech and manufacturing as a positive for the economy. What are we to trade for our imports? Suppose those "Austrian, Liberty minded, free market, think tank" people had an unstated aim. Suppose they recognized that only way to pull the roots of 90 years of creeping socialism was to take away the national credit card by advocating policies that demand massive dollar creation. Have you ever over-fertilized a plant? If the dollar must be destroyed to save the country is that too high a price to pay?

Income tax rate reductions, the elimination of capitol gains taxes. All necessary to compete in a global economy that favors cheap production. The Fed increasing money supply to prevent mortgage defaults. Do you hear the roots snap, one after ANOTHER? When all that can be done, is done and, the last bit of green fades from our over-fertilized patient, where to turn?

Goldendome(No Subject)#11179411/14/03; 21:10:21

Toolie: Deep thoughts, Sir...Interesting. Re-reading.
Mr GreshamAs I read#11179511/14/03; 21:24:30

through the posts of our assembled sages ;) today, it occurs that, if I were of a conspiratorial mindset, I'd say that now that the "proper people" are invested in all the PMs they could latch onto, now the media outlets will be giving the public the green light signals to toss their money in.

At the end, it's only gonna matter how many ounces of each you managed to attach yourself to. You'll be doing those two multiplications in your head for many years to come. All-around good time to be a "small dog." At least, one of the ones who had a little bird whisper in his ear way back in 90-something.

Did a little skimming of a book about SS (Social Security Under the Gun -- Arthur Benavie, professor at Chapel Hill NC) and it's a good defense against the Bush & Co. stock market SS privatizers. (Probably never happen, now.) Some interesting new bits about the problems (and expense fees!) in Britain and Chile under their new "reformed" plans that are the models pursued here. He comes down to SS is a pretty good deal as is, and should be left untouched. (I agree, in that it's headed for enough problems as is, without compounding. But the demographic backing our Prez has nothing but a contemptuous sneer for it as another welfare program it would like to "rollback".)

Of course any "rescues" will involve tax increases and benefit cuts, and it will only be the novelty of the ways in which these are presented that will be worth commenting on as we come to those days. But he is right, in that the SS system will be close to solvent, at least passable as a better-than-most pension plan in those times. But it is the overall Federal bankruptcy that will sink it, as the SS fund is lost as one more IOU the US Treasury has to give a "haircut" to.

What I'm getting at is the complacency people are mired in now, and the sudden alarm I think will follow. Financial implosion after implosion will drive them relentlessly in this direction.

Spending some time thinking in tune with the economists doing the retirement math, and looking at the actuarial problems ahead in supporting the old -- as well as the recent bad pension news (how many funds can PBGC bail out?) -- leaves all roads pointing toward the one conclusion that more and more people will wake up to, morning after morning to come:

"I've got to start saving FOR MYSELF."

And not in dollars, or declining real estate. And it won't matter how high in dollars gold's gotten to. They never saw it at 255, or passing 400 either. It's gonna look pretty good at 800, and even better at 1200. They won't care how few ounces they're getting for their cashed-in IRAs. Gold's going to look solid and unsinkable right up through that range, and probably beyond. 'Nuff said...

Gold StandardThoughts on Silver#11179611/14/03; 21:26:20

Every now and again, I re-read the very first internet essay by that weird and wonderful poet, Charles Savoie, entitled "Silver's Mushroom Cloud".

In deference to our fine hosts, I am not posting the URL, but I'm sure that you will find it.

Penned two years ago, just prior to the 9/11 islamofascist attack, it was pretty way-out stuff then, but now.....?

I think Charles deserves the "Crystal Ball of the Year" award for this effort. If only he would tone down his references and quotes from some pretty abysmal B-grade movies from the 50's and 60's ........

Cheers! GS

Dollar Bill*>*#11179711/14/03; 22:49:53

Sir Socrates 964 and all knights discussing this.

Could the parallel princing of gold/oil be going on with just a couple key countries? Kuwait and Saudi Arabia?
And just with the US?
An arrangement done by the reserve currency country and the key oil countries?
And not even includeing the french germans japanese ect?

Dollar Bill*>*............+#11179811/14/03; 23:39:54

It was mentioned to me recently that the conclusions of some
men who have researched the mideast issue, is that during the 1940's, inner circles of the Foreign Office of the British Govt quietly debated the mideast with an eye to the possible results of the Balfour declaration.
They concluded that the strategy the British Govt had employed many times in its history of dealing with other Nations and colonies, the strategy of causing conflicts amongst different groups, thereby keeping them from uniteing, and keeping the British influence strong by exploiting the struggles for British benefit....was the one to use in the mideast as the Jews started to try to move there.

Where it was possible for the Jews to have successfully
bonded with the people of Palestine at one point in time,
the British took many steps to insure two things, that the design of jewish land cut the arab world in two,
and further, that the Jews and Arabs would be at each others throats so that the Jews would not use thier business skills to in effect, take over the oil countries.
There were large populations of Jews in many arab countries. Iran, Iraq, ect.
The British succeeded, and the final fruits of that British effort might be terrorists taking down the global economy.
Well, unfortunately, not the final fruits.

Dollar Bill*>*#11179911/15/03; 00:15:25

Aristotle (10/14/03; 03:01:32MT - msg#: 110359)
Liberty Head (and ALL) on the topic of honest money
To offer up the culmination of a long inquiry into the nature of money from the humblest beginnings, two things come immediately to the fore.

1.) An understanding of money -- Form and Function -- requires *REQUIRES* an understanding of banking. This, to the extent that a person can't hope to claim a mastery of the monetary phenomenon that exceeds his or her mastery of (understanding) banking as a System of Practices.

2.) Money is more about the Rule of Law than anything else.

Loooooonnnnng trudging will eventually root out even the most entrenched preconceived notions about Gold in all of this. In the end, we're left with this unobstructed view of the horizon: Banking institutionalizes the accounting of Money; Rule of Law provides the vitality of contracts (wages, loans, purchase orders) which, forming an interconnected network of settlements and expectations of settlements, gives rise to (and, at the same time, gives insight into) the Value that a society engenders in its monetary unit.

The role of Gold in the whole affair can be seen naturally as a passing phase in which the universal barter agent of Gold lumps evolved into standard Gold currency serving furthermore as a catalyst helping the Monetary phenomenon to set up and gel as a pure numerical system.

The problem with Gold's low bartering/exchange/market/wealth value today is that it hasn't yet been set free again to behave a pure Property. It remains encumbered in a certain element of the banking system as a token behind an artificial valuation established by derivatives.

As I tend to characterize it, it would seem that the Dollar-brand prototype of Money was never fully and fairly allowed to "gel" under standard Rule of Law within an uncoerced marketplace. As a result, the risk today is that the Dollar would collapse in a heap like so much premature quiche if LOW PRICED Gold were removed (i.e., becomes high priced Gold) as the ongoing stabilizing agent in the dollar's ongoing attempt at earning its own monetary wings.

The euro is trying not to make that mistake. It wants the marketplace to form a stable network of pricing and contracts without false pretenses with respect to Gold. If it succeeds, it will be the world's first fully fledged Money -- in the most Proper use of the word!

The euro could in fact be called honest money, if you like. That is, as honest and as trustworthy as the Rule of Law that stands in the background to enforce contracts.

But as we know, Rule of Law today is not one and the same predicable Rule of Law tomorrow. It blows around a bit due to political will. Therefore, we'll always want honest Gold property used as our core Wealth Savings. We'll own it to compensate for our human inabilities to provide ourselves with a PERFECT Money.

In other words, because we have to settle for using, at BEST, a system of honest money which is always humanly flawed, we need Gold to return to its ANCIENT job description as perfect property. The kind of stuff that can be OWNED, not "as money," but rather, OWNED....... (wait for it......).... UNAMBIGUOUSLY!!!!

I hope this doesn't make anyone choke on their breakfast!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Do your major rewrite project Aristotle, the one you mentioned...Bill

Belgian@ P.A.#11180011/15/03; 01:51:35

What are the Chinese trying to say, with their liberalization of Gold ? A.: All dollar currency-reserves, held by non Americans, are a *debt* of the US Government...a debt, based on the ability of the American economy to function profitable ! The Chinese and oilreserve-owners, are very well aware of their growing impact on...the profitability of the American economy.

In other words...What "if" US-dollar-debt isn't "performing" anymore !? We are facing a proliferating, "negative" asset, here !

Hearing the Western media, mentioning PHYSICAL Gold, might...MIGHT be a sign that the old paper-gold-trading is now, to be *publicly* considered as leveraged currency trading ($ exch.rate). And yes, they probably want some (jesus !) higher profiled inflalala and maneuver the paper-POG into the 400$-600$ range !? But do they still have that old gold-standard in mind and try to increase the POG into a higher range of a semi fixed goldprice as to set the dollar on a higher infla-track ? Provoking more opening of the dollar-floods, fastening the dollar's demise from its reserve status !? A forcefull manipulation of the dollar-currency ?

The POO is evolving high enough to test the dollar's strength...and forcing the Physical Gold market to separate from the paper-gold, leveraging, currency trading.
Discretely, but publicly, talking about buying Physical Gold, is the same as suggesting that the dollar-reserve is dying.


BelgianMurder....#11180111/15/03; 03:37:28

23 people murdered in Turkey...hundreds severly injured !!!
Terror and war on terror ??? Another very sad day and most probably, more to come.

CaradocMr Gresham's 111795: "...conspiratorial mindset...."#11180211/15/03; 03:47:19

Mr Gresham: As a mildly worded intro to the weird realm of "conspiracy nuts," it's not unreasonable to suspect that sometimes individual members of a group of people with common interests end up acting consistently with those interests even if they haven't had formal meetings to set up a conspiracy. In the case you are so accurately describing (and doing so in a timely manner since it only started about 48 hours ago), it's understandable that when various individuals and/or organizations (companies, governments, you name it) have accumulated a certain level of gold and gold-related assets, it becomes in their interest to foster a broader interest in the yellow metal.

Going one step closer toward sounding like a fullfledged conspiracy nut, I would suggest that if any of the groups referred to as The Powers That Be -- actually an overlapping Venn diagram of a dozen entities that don't all agree with each other on every issue -- have been purposely suppressing public interest in gold by snide remarks in syndicated columns and by lack of coverage and/or the occasional raised eyebrow or sarcastic comment by the talking heads of television, they would now cease to do so.

Sure will be interesting to see how it plays out and how quickly. One thing for sure: "There ain't no rush like a gold rush." Probably a good idea to pick up a bit more before the mob arrives.


masGold Lease Rates#11180311/15/03; 04:00:06

Check out the one year rate, it just dropped off the cliff......
OperativeThe US Dollar Bear 2#11180411/15/03; 05:37:16

The US Dollar Bear 2

Just as the US dollar bear will almost certainly persist as long as US real interest rates remain negative, so will the bull market in gold. This week's exciting challenge of US$400 in gold is just the beginning. Currency and interest-rate trends are massive and tend to run for 5 to 7 years or more, so odds are the Great Gold bull is just getting started.
If you are concerned about the dollar bear market, spiraling inflation, and your rapidly eroding purchasing power, gold is the place to be if you are an American investor. As history has shown, the gains in gold will far outstrip both the depredation of the Fed's inflation and its naked debasement of the US dollar. While a US dollar bear can be devastating for stocks and bonds, gold will shine brightly and remain a refuge and pillar of strength through these turbulent financial times.
Just as the US dollar bear will almost certainly persist as long as US real interest rates remain negative, so will the bull market in gold. This week's exciting challenge of US$400 in gold is just the beginning. Currency and interest-rate trends are massive and tend to run for 5 to 7 years or more, so odds are the Great Gold bull is just getting started."

Comment: This read really perked up that first cup of coffee this morning. I would like to thank uncle Al Greenspan for his not so small effort in making all of this possible. (Not to take away from the efforts of our own Mr. G, that wise wizard and his four legged critters) Two G's, one in black, and a great wizard in robes of white.

OperativeIf it whines it must be gold.#11180511/15/03; 06:07:46


A major exhibition at the British Museum highlights the contribution to our heritage of the much-maligned 'detectorist' – amateur archaeologists who walk fields with metal-detectors. Elizabeth Grice reports
On a raw November morning, Cliff Bradshaw was working a potato field in Kent with his metal detector when he heard a faint, high-pitched whine through his earphones. "It was the tiniest signal possible," he says. "I knew it couldn't be iron because the machine would have given a growling noise. I scuffed the ground with my foot and tried again. The sound became more and more high-pitched as I dug down until it was shrieking in my earphones."

Cliff Bradshaw: 'what I felt was wonderment more than excitement'
Three weeks earlier, he had found a rare seventh-century gold coin on the same site; then four spindle whorls, followed by a silver strap-end from a Saxon belt and a gilded Saxon button-brooch. Yet he felt this was going to be different. More than a foot below the surface, he saw the gleam of what could only be gold. Buried silver goes grey, bronze goes green and iron turns rusty, but gold comes out of the ground as brilliant and undiminished as the day it went in. As a symbol of permanence, there's nothing like it. That is its magic - for the metalworker, for the collector, for kings, for lovers, for treasure-hunters.

Comment: A hard (involves a lot of work) but alternate way to build your gold reserves. Not as easy as a phone call to our host, but the fresh air and outdoor adventure may appeal to some.

BoilermakerLet the scandals proceed!!#11180611/15/03; 06:45:37

snips; NEW YORK (Reuters) - A series of probes into improper practices at mutual funds mushroomed on Friday with several
Reuters Photo big name financial firms among those disclosing they are being investigated or could face legal action.
On Friday, discount broker Charles Schwab Corp said Federal regulators are investigating possible instances of improper trading in mutual funds managed by Schwab.

While SEC Chairman William Donaldson briefed Bush administration officials on planned reforms to mutual funds, New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer on Friday blasted an SEC settlement with Putnam Investments over a securities fraud case. Spitzer railed against the SEC and said it had put the interests of fund managers above those of investors.
"The SEC is quickly becoming nothing more than a ministry of the status quo," Spitzer said at the Reuters Finance Summit in New York. "The problem that I have with the settlement is that it is a Band-Aid on the problem that requires a tourniquet or even more radical surgery."
U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, after a meeting with Donaldson, said mutual fund insiders should be held accountable for any impropriety, and he lauded the SEC's reform efforts.
Donaldson briefed the President's Working Group on Financial Markets, which was formed after the 1987 stock market crash and is used to coordinate market regulation.
"I am confident that the reforms he (Donaldson) has initiated will help to protect mutual fund investors, and that wrongdoers will be punished to the fullest extent of the law," Snow said in a statement.

Could this be the chain of events that finally unglues the SM and propels gold?


BoilermakerHow to Avoid the Next Mutual Fund Scandal#11180711/15/03; 07:14:15

AMELIA ISLAND, Fla.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 15, 2003--The Investing Systems Network, today announced the way for retail investors to avoid being caught in the next mutual fund scandal is to take matters into their own hands.
"This year we have seen an unbelievable number of allegations against some of Wall Street's most trusted firms," said Bill McKinley, President of Investing Systems. "We have never before seen such widespread abuses alleged against the very people charged with oversight of the retirement money of the nations most unsophisticated investors."

"Many more allegations are due out Monday morning and we do not see an end in sight anywhere soon," McKinley continued. "The key to not getting caught up in the mess is educating yourself and taking control of your own investments."

Investing Systems offers a wide variety of educational tools and services to empower retail investors and help eliminate the need to rely on advisers blindly.

Looks like an outfit ready to grab a piece of the stampede leaving mutual funds. I wonder if they recommend gold? Our own CPM has the best solution for these poor souls.


misetichSelected Ramblings from Fed Governors#11180811/15/03; 07:56:50



The central role of U.S. financial markets -- and of the dollar -- in the world economy, suggest that capital account surpluses (in other economies) are being driven by foreign demand for U.S. assets, rather than by any structural imbalance in the U.S. economy itself," Poole said.

"I certainly do not foresee circumstances in which there will be any reason for which there will be capital flight from the United States," he later said in answer to an audience question.
"Some have drawn comparisons with countries like Argentina, Brazil and Mexico at times of severe balance of payments crisis," Poole said.

"I consider it highly unlikely that such a crisis will befall the United States," he added, saying the United States is a stable and diversified economy that is unlikely to lose investor confidence.
PHILADELPHIA, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Alfred Broaddus said on Friday he thought the central bank would keep the reference to "a considerable period" in its policy statement on the economy and interest rates until the risks of disinflation lessen.
"The forces driving the U.S. capital account represent a persistent, but ultimately temporary, process that might result in a higher level of net indebtedness without necessarily posing any threat to the sustainability of the U.S. international investment position," Poole said in remarks prepared for delivery to an investment management group in Tucson, Arizona.

"Nor will the transition to a sustainable long-run path necessarily require wrenching adjustments in domestic or international markets or in exchange rates," he said.

Fed Governors on the road dessiminating illusionary information

Poole was also quoted as saying, paraphrasing " where would foreigners invest to other than US?"

The last few years there has been an exodus of Fed Governors, most of them hawkish and one can assume they didn't get along with whimsical Sir Greenspan who chooses to adopt a "flexible" non-structured approach - oka - he chooses to do as he pleases

The remaining Governors such as Poole, Braddus, and McTier are of the same conviction of the glorious leader Sir Greenspan - a bunch of puppets

Point is when one surrounds himself with people without backbone (Bernacke may be the exception) the ultimate decision making is not balanced thus resulting in poor policy decisions

History will be the judge of Sir Greenspan - hero or bubblemaker?

The problems are STRUCTURAL - a look at any chart for the last 30 years confirms the US who enjoyed a positive trade deficit in the 70's has since embarked on the road to oblivion since it has debased their manufacturing by exporting jobs overseas and being dependant on a service economy more and more each passing year.

The saturation of information technology and overcapacities worlwide is the fly in the ointment to US aspired growth in that area

Few IPO's are being processed - funds are being obtained through cheap and presently inexpensive debt

The US requires 2 billion a day to balance their growing trade deficit and probably ANOTHER billion or so a day to fund the ever growing Federal Budget Deficit

Mr Poole believes this is a "temporary phenomena" yet it has grown significantly in the last 3 years.

As far as alternatives to the US $ Mr. Poole is mistaken again - The Euro area is one and COMMODITIES are ANOTHER as China has intensified their purchases of same rather than holding US $

It is a question of not only of disinvestments of US $ but also being able to attract investments from overseas

The investment returns are diminishing for foreign investors and the trend is for further deterioration of the US $ and consequently more currency losses for foreigners

The US financial leadership in both the Treasury and the Fed is pathetic

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetichMunicipal Bond Outlook for 2004 Is Anxious and Grim: Joe Mysak#11180911/15/03; 08:11:36


Let's begin with the bad news. Every day there's some. This week the city of Pittsburgh asked for the state of Pennsylvania to take it over. The city asked to be declared a ``distressed city'' by the Department of Community and Economic Development.

If the department determines that Pittsburgh is distressed, a ``coordinator'' will be appointed to make some very hard financial decisions. The coordinator will also determine if the city should seek Chapter 9, municipal bankruptcy.
Consider New York.

The analysis is almost unremittingly grim. New York, which Moody's rates A2, has ``a large debt burden that ranks New York fifth among states in debt per capita, a capital plan that is largely bond-financed, structural budget imbalance demonstrated by large outyear budget gap projections and severe liquidity problems.'' Translation: New York lives beyond its means.

One reason why: While the stock market was booming, retirement system assets rose in value. The state stopped making contributions to the system, and increased retirement benefits. Now the state has to put more money in the system to pay for those benefits.
Then there's the matter of all that debt, more than $40 billion worth.
Consider two recent incidents.

North Carolina Treasurer Richard H. Moore ordered a review of Alliance Capital Management Holding LP, which manages $7 billion for the state's $56 billion retirement system. Alliance is being investigated for improper mutual fund trading by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer.

What a mess - at the City, State and Federal level - pension and retirement funds have lost trillions of perceived value post-bubble mania

The price over allocation toward stocks during the late 90's is still to be paid. How many more Enron's are in existence?

One can imagine the accounting trickery and deceptive methods utilized throughout the 3 levels of government attempting to "weather the storm" hoping and waiting for the good old days or at least try to get out and leave the messes to the next fall guy, wallpapering their problems

Taxes will be raised and services will be curtailed

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetichRising hiring: The missing piece#11181011/15/03; 08:41:03


Hiring is brightening, although analysts’ responses to two special questions confirm that labor markets still have a way to go. The weakness is clearly ebbing: Fully 23% of respondents reported that companies have stepped up hiring somewhat over the past three months. While 22% reported that companies are still cutting employees, that reading is sharply lower than the 35% reported in September.
Aerospace/defense analyst Heidi Wood noted that defense companies are hiring, but aerospace is still cutting employees. In all, ten industry groups reported some payroll cuts: autos, non-life insurance, large-cap banks, multi-industry/machinery, electronic machinery services (EMS), computer services and IT consulting, specialty chemicals, telecom services, and electric utilities. Mortgage lenders and title insurers generally are reducing payrolls as mortgage origination volume declines, according to our US specialty & mortgage finance team. Interestingly, analysts report that some healthcare facilities are trimming staff but are also replacing temporary labor with permanent hires to cut payroll costs.

Moreover, there are signs that labor markets may improve in coming months. One-third of respondents said that companies were planning to hire over the next three months, up from the 20% reported last month. Brokerages/asset management, large-cap biotech, railroads, express/parcel, trucking, semiconductors, specialized IT services, and steel/aluminum companies expect to continue adding to payrolls somewhat, while Internet & PC applications and wireless telecom companies plan to continue to add to payrolls noticeably. Gaming & lodging, broadcasting, oil services, mortgage finance, and semiconductor capital equipment companies will begin to add to payrolls over the next three months.

At least 125,000 to 150,000 new jobs require to be created to keept unemployment numbers in check. Much was made from a report on increased job creation and fewer claimants a few weeks ago

Yet WallStreet and the Feds are 'cautios" relating to hirings


All indicators suggest hirings will be shortlived during the holiday period and a resumption to "normal" conditions aks as increase layoffs to resume in January, as reality of expected "solid growth" of 3-4% GDP sets in as not being enough - (The percentage growth is padded with hedonics thus growth is probably non-existent)

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetichGlobal: Asia Musings#11181111/15/03; 09:01:22


China has become a magnet for foreign capital, much to the dismay of other Asian economies; foreign direct investment into China hit a record US$53 billion in 2002, whereas FDI flows elsewhere in the region have remained at relatively depressed levels since the Asian crisis. At the same time, China's powerful growth dynamic has now been transformed into an engine of pan-regional growth for the rest of Asia. In the first eight months of this year, fully 73% of Japan's total export growth went to China; for Korea, the share was 40%, and for Taiwan it was 99%. Even for the more diversified and smaller ASEAN economies, exports to China accounted for between 20% and 30% of total export growth in the first eight months of this year. Largely lacking in domestic demand, an externally-driven Asian economy has become increasingly dependent on Chinese trade as a major source of growth; that's great when China is surging to the upside, but it's a perilous course when China slows — precisely our concern in the first half of 2004

China has overtake Japan and challenging US influence in Asia

Excerpt from an article in today's Washington Post

BANGKOK -- Once seen largely as an intimidating trade competitor, a diplomatic bully and a potential military threat, China is building a new reputation among its neighbors as a responsible regional power and an essential engine of Asian economic growth, according to diplomats and analysts in Asia.
When a research group in Bangkok asked residents last month what country they consider Thailand's closest friend, about 76 percent named China. By comparison, fewer than 8 percent of residents questioned by the Kasikorn Research Center picked Japan, Thailand's top trading partner and its number one source of foreign investment. Barely 9 percent chose the United States, a longtime military ally and the world's leading importer of Thai goods.
The invasion of Iraq and the Bush administration's approach to fighting terrorism have reinforced an image of the United States as heavy-handed and insensitive to the opinions of other nations, diplomats and analysts in Asia said. By contrast, they said, China has gone out of its way to ease fears among its neighbors and won points by emphasizing a multilateral approach to solving problems.

"More and more, China is doing the things the United States used to do: cooperating, pushing trade, offering help. . . . People are less scared of China now," said Sarasin Viraphol, a former Thai diplomat educated at Harvard and vice president of the CP Group, an agricultural and retail conglomerate that has invested more than $4 billion in China. "If Washington cares about its influence in the region, if it wants to win hearts and minds, it needs to do more than just talk about terrorism."
On orders from the government, Chinese investment in Asia is growing, too, by more than 20 percent annually and by more than 40 percent in some countries. In some cases, Chinese companies are buying assets from U.S. and European investors who are pulling out. The biggest investments have been in minerals, oil and other raw materials needed to fuel the Chinese economy.
Closer to home, China has improved relations with all 14 countries that it borders,
The United States recently completed a free trade agreement with Singapore and has opened talks about a similar pact with Thailand. In addition, the United States has strengthened military ties with Singapore, the Philippines and Thailand as part of its war on terrorism.

China growth economically and stature has been impressive in the last few years

Their avoidance of "direct confrontation" with US coupled with their appetizing lucrative "market" has won many new friends

US dominance is being threatned worlwide - and market share being lost as oppurtunities as the US underestimate of global Anti-American feelings due to poor foreign policy

The reaction to the "9-11" of using force was a poor decision

US economic clout in Asia is diminishing and much needed export markets are being captured by China

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetichCredit Bubble Bulletin, by Doug Noland#11181211/15/03; 09:34:15


November 13 – Europe Wall Street Journal: "China's fast-growing economy has reached such heft that the country has emerged as the largest force driving the world's growing demand for oil, the International Energy Agency said.
November 13 – Bloomberg: "China, the world's No. 2 energy user after the U.S., said its crude oil imports rose to a record 74.2 million metric tons .............China's crude oil imports rose 30.3 percent in the January-October period, the customs bureau said
November 13 – Bloomberg: "India's economy may grow more than 7 percent, the fastest in seven years, in the year to March 31, 2004, as heavier rains boost farm production and lift rural incomes, the government said in its quarterly economic review. The government expects farm growth of 8 percent during the year because of heavier than normal rains…"
And it would appear this evening that the unfolding mutual fund (Wall Street?) scandal could provide a catalyst for piercing a major liquidity-induced speculative stock market Bubble. Not only would this pull the rug out from under truly amazing bullishness, it would likely prove an especially untimely development for our faltering currency. Moreover, and again ironically, a return to financial fragility and an attendant bond market rally would only throw gas on the mortgage finance Bubble. The consequence may only be greater inflation of dollar claims and more pressure on the dollar. The "dollar problem" scenario is turning less vague.

Many thanks to Doug for his great work. Well worth a read

India and China's economy growth - great news for GOLD

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Retails in fine bookstores for $14.95. Buy it direct for only $5.95!#11181311/15/03; 10:26:46

ABCs of Gold by Michael Kosares

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

geSome links collected from the net#11181511/15/03; 10:57:49

Triple top breakout (chart by Albert King of another site)$GOLD,PLUADAN[PA][DD][F!3!4!]&pref=G

From Bob Chapman

Swiss economics professor Fredmund Malik of St. Gallen University says, "The world's stock markets are heading for a crash like collapse, within the next few days or weeks."

adminNews & Views#11181611/15/03; 11:04:59


Breaking Gold News.

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

**** MK asks: What's that bear saying (or thinking) as he peeks from behind that tree?? That has to be one of the most expressive bears ever photographed. How about: "Anyone seen that NASDAQ I chomped on yesterday. Left it around here somewhere." **** Your version welcome. Also name suggestions will be entertained by the board of editors.

Dollar Bill*>*............+#11181711/15/03; 11:18:10

"...We are entering into a bifurcated world, rather than Fukuyama's neo-liberal vision of the universal free market. Huge regional trading blocs are replacing the "one-world" vision of the champions of globalisation. In the West, we have a healthy, well-fed society, pampered and supported increasingly by technology. The other, larger part of the world is more Hobbesian in character, where man is condemned to a life which is "poor, nasty, brutish, and short." Worse, the conflict between the two worlds seems to be intensifying, rather than diminishing, within nations, as well as between continents. The embrace of populist, nationalist politics in Latin America is becoming increasingly common in a continent which has derived little benefits from the promises of the free market. Beggar-thy-neighbour trade policies, competitive devaluations, hostility to Western investment, increased protectionist pressures, these are all symptoms of a world in which politics can hardly said to be irrelevant. In Europe, Turks are increasingly prone to see themselves as part of a broader Muslim community, rather than a secular cog of a western alliance in which they are yet to be perceived as fully paid-up members. The Balkans, a powder-keg for a nation state war at the start of the last century, could be the powder keg for a clash of Christian and Islamic civilisations in this century. The break-up of the Soviet Empire and the intensification of the conflicts between the west and radical Islam are also symptomatic of this broader trend, as is the ongoing conflict between Russia's oligarchs and its nationalists.

To think that the universal free market will invariably triumph is arguably no more intellectually compelling than 19th century Positivism, which was characterised by a belief that as societies came to be based on science, they were bound to become more alike, and poverty and wars could be abolished; through the power given to it by science, humanity would be able to create a new world. One has the sense that globalisation's apologists view the universal free market in much the same idealised manner. But 20 years hence, this current construct might increasingly be seen as an aberration, as naïve as the views of the 19th century Positivists, rather than indicative of a brave new world of "one-stop shopping", mono-chromatic, globalised investing. If nothing else, it will certainly make one ponder a little bit more deeply as to where to invest that marginal investment dollar or euro, if not deliberate on the deeper philosophic issues."

Sir Misetich, although I know you dont post specifically for me, I like to read your financial info and as a reader,
I request you have mercy on me by considering that some of us prefer a more kindly view of America's actions.
And "prefer" might not be the right word to choose, but based on evidence, I and others see other sides to the motivations that happily are based in goodness.
Just like France and Germany's actions were hardly the work of more enlightened more pure hearted statesmen, same is the case that the US is not the black rogue knight. Crashing blindly through a global village otherwise free of human nature.

AgingfastWow!#11181811/15/03; 11:18:43

Some world-class postings by misetich regarding China. Does the once-sleeping dragon have a Project for a New Chinese Century rivaling the neo-cons' Project for a New American Century?
DruidWhy Gold, Why Now?#11181911/15/03; 11:41:01


"We call the monetary impact on (or component of) prices nominal for the very reason stated in Mises' theory, that an increase in the quantity of money confers no economic benefit.

Hence, the proponents of the general price level as a barometer of inflation are left without the tools to differentiate between the growth resulting from productivity and the apparent growth resulting from higher prices merely due to a debasing currency… from a change in the balance between the supply and demand for it."

Druid: Great read from Bugos. I would cordially disagree with the statement ". that an increase in the quantity of money confers no economic benefit." I would argue that in the SHORT term, a continuous increase in the money supply confers a GREAT economic benefit for the few who UNDERSTAND the wizardry at the expense of the many who don't. Additional increases in the "money" supply allow the many to over consume and thus delude themselves into believing that they are "getting ahead." "Thoughts" do become reality when put into action and in the short term if the collective thought suggest there is economic benefit then so be it. However, over the longer term "reality" might change thereby retracing to change the "collective thoughts" concerning "economic benefits." Real physical goods and services are produced by the many but never at a rate greater then the growth of "money." This leads the many to believe that their standard of living is increasing at a far greater rate then what would be considered an average rate (historically about 3% to 4%).

The 10 Trillion dollar GDP figure that is constantly being bandied about by the parrots of alchemy could probably be broken up into 4 1/2 to 5 trillion of "real paid for growth" and the rest is debt induced growth. Now comes the surreal part. The sorcerers and wizards of government and Wall Street have convinced an entire nation through the creation of interesting paper instruments and marketing to leverage ourselves on the "belief" that we produce 10 trillion dollars worth of goods and services representing a an annual GDP growth rate of 6% to 7%. Try sustaining this growth rate year by year. This additional leverage is what will be a thorn in our side for years to come. Thus over the LONGER term there is no economic benefit for the masses as reality begins to change and set in as all the excess has to somehow be consumed, written off, burned, get the picture.

I've got to hand it to the magicians, for a very long time they have been able to keep the "paper economy" floating high above the "real economy" long enough where the masses couldn't discern inflation in a very real way. Well, the paper inflation economy is a heading for earth and is picking up speed so HANG ON AND GET YOUR HANDS ON AS MUCH BULLION AS YOU CAN BECAUSE THIS CRASH ISN'T GOING TO BE PRETTY.


AristotleOf course!#11182011/15/03; 11:52:32

Our friend, Pinchy the Bear, says:
"This is the woods. I'm a bear. Do the math.
I'm about to give some paper its final reward."

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

BoilermakerMichael's Bear#11182111/15/03; 13:26:15

"Hi sailor. My name's Bambi. Wanna have some fun? Let's go to my place. You're cute.
Gandalf the WhitePictures ARE worth thousands of words !#11182211/15/03; 14:07:50

That Bear is "Terminator" !
Would you like to be the one at which he is looking ?
And THANKS Sir MK for the "TO THE MOON, Alice" Chart !

ToolieDa Bears#11182311/15/03; 16:33:20

"Cabal" is wondering where all those gold bulls came from.
Old Yeller"Too much gold out there"#11182411/15/03; 18:19:07

Gold is uniquely poised as the currency whose supply can decrease,quite meaningfully,when the inevitable gold bank run materializes.

The "problem" does not solely exist in the standard jurisdictions cited by many(CB's,bullion banks,Comex,OTC,LBMA,gold derivatives,etc)It is much more widespread than that...

DummyANIA simple linear prediction:#11182511/15/03; 19:07:08

CRB(284), Gold(440.1), WTI(35.56) are expected.

Date: Net short changes Pre.COMEX-close CRB WTI
Oct. 20 62,631c plus2224c...372.2 ..243.31 ..30.68
Oct. 21 67,474c plus4843c...374.4 ..243.46 ..30.35
Oct. 22 58,163. minus9311c...382.0 ..244.79 ..30.18 <---wrong-short
Oct. 23 49,538. minus8625c...386.8 ..245.33 ..29.92 <---wrong-short
Oct. 24 46,545. minus2993c...385.0 ..248.69 ..30.30
Oct. 27 50,838c plus4293c...389.2 ..249.34 ..30.16
Oct. 28 49,296. minus1542c...388.2 ..249.34 ..29.92
Oct. 29 51,053c plus1757c...383.4 ..249.07 ..29.56
Oct. 30 53,108c plus2055c...387.0 ..249.76 ..28.91
Oct. 31 51,174. minus1934c...384.4 ..247.73 ..28.47
Nov. 04 50,855. minus0319c...377.1 ..248.33 ..29.11
Nov. 05 49,206. minus1649c...380.0 ..246.57 ..28.75 <---wrong-short
Nov. 06 49,651c plus0445c...382.7 ..250.13 ..30.30
Nov. 07 51,679c plus2028c...380.7 ..248.64 ..30.26
Nov. 10 51,341. minus0338c...383.4 ..251.03 ..30.85
Nov. 11 51,722c plus0381c...386.7 ..250.71 ..30.88
Nov. 12 52,927c plus1205c...388.2 ..251.60 ..31.15
Nov. 13 61,349c plus8422c...395.0 ..253.13 ..31.33
Nov. 14 62,053c plus0704c...394.3 ..255.00 ..31.90
Nov. 17 62,053c plus0704c...398.0 ..257.29 ..32.37

D-ANI: A rising CRB is attacking on commercial-shorts from all the directions.
A crude oil is rising over $32 per barrel, at least $34, may be $38.
CRB will be rising at least nearly 290 points, if aided by a secular war-economy, rising at 330 points level.
A simple linear prediction:
A Gold bull scenario cccc..Oil bull scenario
CRB c.Gold cWTI cc..CRB c.Gold c.WTI
243 c372.2 c30.68 cc...245 c386.8 c29.92
253 c395.0 c31.33 ccc255 c394.3 c31.90 <------ observed data
263 c417.8 c31.98 ccc265 c401.8 c33.88 <------ predicted data
273 c440.6 c32.63 ccc.275 c409.3 c35.86
283 c463.4 c33.28 ccc.285 c416.8 c37.84

An average value: CRB(284), Gold(440.1), WTI(35.56) are expected.
Until CRB attains nearly 290 points, Gold will be rising at least $430 per ounce, if possible , gaining at $470 per ounce.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen

LeighSmoky the Bear#11182611/15/03; 19:50:06

"All paper will burn."
Dollar Bill*>*#11182711/15/03; 20:02:56

Alice the Bear sez;
Anyone got any paper?

Dollar Bill*>*#11182811/15/03; 20:28:31

Alice has a freind named Greybear who posted this in the Bear's Lair.
"Greenspan's gambit greybear
I know most of you guys hate the guy - because he has complicated your life, but he could win this game.

He is putting Europe and Japan in an untenable position. They either quit exporting their stuff - by hook or crook - to the USA, or they keep buying that green paper.


that Europe is making the mistake of not getting into the paper race with the USA. Their currency will become stronger until they choke on it. Can you imagine Chinese stuff falling 30% or more in price? They will eventually need to reduce interest rates lower than the states or just give more and more euros away for nothing. Any Europeans bears out there to set me straight?

Japan is willing to let the USA and/or Europe be the consumer so Japan will let their currency float between the two. They will print enough yen to buy as many dollars or euros as needed to control the situation. They are a strong exporter to China, mostly last years manufacturing equipment.

The net result of all of this fiscal action will leave China the slave to the west and Japan. They will be working for paper. It will be the last great play of capitalism and may last 10, 20, 50? years. Capitalism always works best with slave labor.

If Greenspan's gambit works then the real gold will be black gold. China is all ready an importer of oil and as they become "richer" they will need more and more oil, along with a reflated Europe and a dependent Japan. The world powers might already know this and that is why France and Germany got in bed with Saddam and the eventual USA response. You think?

If Greenspan's gambit doesn't work Europe falls first. The second great depression starts and everyone looses.

Safest bet = sell Europe and buy oil.

God knows what happens next – the great virus? Come to think of it SARS is about due to come back isn't it.

The Invisible HandAlice and Alan Greenspan#11182911/15/03; 21:16:44

Was Ayn Rand's original name not Alice Rosenbaum?
Max RabbitzMister Bear#11183011/15/03; 21:34:42

sez... I'm sick of berries, grubs and worms, time for some a growl comes from his ..... belly.

Dollar Bill...I don't think of this system as capitalism, more like elite financialism with the resources appropriated from the savers and transferred to insiders willing to incite and then ride the biggest bubbles. If you can't save the wealth you've earned then you're no better off than a slave. Thus gold to be free of the B.....ds, and triple locks on my doors like the Great Mogambo Guru.

Max RabbitzFinancial slavery#11183111/15/03; 21:44:30

On second thought, in the old days slaves were at least taken care of by their masters; housed, fed and clothed. Now you're on your own buckeroos, social security not withstanding.
GoldiloxChina's Trade Status#11183211/15/03; 22:47:22

@Dollar Bill-

Japan hoarded US$ until they had so many they created a real estate and fixed asset bubble in the US. Once that was done, they ate it big time when the bubble burst in their face. China is not going to repeat that game. Their current visit to the US with major shopping lists is to spend large amounts of cash on US manufactered goods to repatriate some of those dollars. They are also buying gold and silver with some of those dollars. IMHO, they will depeg their currency when they have grown their economy to a strength that gives them undisputed control of Asian markets, and then start dictating exchange terms to US banks and gubmint. Our technical industries are becoming more and more dependent on them until we will be unable to negotiate from any strength. The US is too small to maintain complete economic control and too big to play investment banker to the rest of the world. Europe is much more patient, and loves the idea of creating an alternative reserve currency (EU is playing both sides against each other in the trade wars). The US "economic control" engine is painting itself into a veritable corner, and the outcome will not be pretty.

China holds a very strong hand in the future of the world economy, along with 25% of the world's population (huge potential for both production and consumption). They will not be starved into "submission" by IMF, WB, or any other financial shenanigans. China is no South America or even Middle East, but stands to gain a lot by building trade relationships with US, EU, and any third world compatriots. While we bring out the party hats for a bubble based 7.2% on a one-time tax windfall supported by record debt, China has increased annual imports 40%, exports 40%, and oil consumption by 60%. These numbers are way too large to ignore, and frankly, make ours look pretty anemic.

The sleeping dragon is awakening, whether we recognize it or not.

My rapidly depreciating $0.02 worth,


DummyANIAre you a winner or a loser ? Having a Japanese stock at present will be a loser.#11183311/16/03; 01:49:24

If you have a Japanese stock at present, be careful not to become a typical Loser.
Japanese stock market is in an overbought state at present, a kind of a typical bubble was created for a re-election of a sitting administration.
The following are official data from the Japanese government.
Monthly Data ..Nikkei225 ..inflow into Japan .. outflow from Japan
Sep. 2002 ..9383.3 ..27,953(100 million Yen) xxxxx
Oct. 2002 ..8640.5 ..33,789 xxxxx <- -you should buy a JP-stock at this time
Nov. 2002 ..9215.6 ..14,558 xxxxx
Dec. 2002 ..8597.0 ..13,099 xxxx <- -you should buy a JP-stock at this time
Jan. 2003 ..8339.9 ..16,739 xxxx<- -you should buy a JP-stock at this time
Feb. 2003 ..8363.0 ..13,431 xxxx <- -you should buy a JP-stock at this time
Mar. 2003 ..7972.7 ..18,743 xxxx <- -you should buy a JP-stock at this time
Apr. 2003 ..7831.4 ..39,820 xxxx<- -you should buy a JP-stock at this time
May 2003 ..8424.5 ..12,902 ..11,935<- -you should buy a JP-stock at this time
Jun. 2003 ..9083.1 ..xxxx ..17,076
Jul. 2003 ..9563.2 ..xxxx ..19,395
Aug. 2003 ..10344 ..xxxx ..19,788<- -you should sell a JP-stock at this time
Sep. 2003 ..10219 ..xxxx ..48,395 (G-7 Dubai) <- -you should sell a JP-stock at this time

If you are interesting in Japanese stocks, you should buy them from Dec. 2002 to May 2003.
Between Aug. 2003 and Sep. 2003, Nikkei225 was headed higher 11,000 points. You should sell all Japanese stocks at these timing.
After G-7 Dubai meeting at Sep.20 2003, Yen went up, and 48.395 billion Yen was exchanged from Yen to dollar. This is nearly double size of the previous month.
Having a Japanese stock at present will be calling a great risk in your portfolio.
D-ANI: Buy a gold, sell a Yen

steady we must trust!#11183411/16/03; 08:49:45

we must reach out
we have to say things that are uncomfortable
because death is ignorance
because we are wide awake
because we are alive in here
and to glide around with snakes is dangerous
so we reach out - tentative at first
we ask before we confide in others
we kept quiet till we were sure
that we would actually be heard
that our words will find a home
and a welcome somewhere other
than where they where before
and every step a giant leap
every footstep an act of faith
every stride a brave act
every jump a fact
and now it all comes back
to this simple equation
how brave do we dare be
in sharing our world
as we truley see it?

Dollar Bill*>*#11183511/16/03; 09:00:13

Sir Maz Rabbitz, I have to agree, and Mogumbo is one of my favorites.

Sir Goldilox, I love this line of yours "While we bring out the party hats for a bubble based 7.2% on a one-time tax windfall supported by record debt,"
concise and brutally frank.

I did forget to put quote marks on the end of that greybear post, none of that was my words.

a nation of onenews from the front#11183611/16/03; 09:40:03

It's raining here. The air is muggy, even though it's
November. The temperature is 74. The air is not moving.
And the drops of rain are coming down and splattering onto
the big leaves in my small but lavish garden outside the
open patio doors just ten feet away. There is no noise,
which is unusual here. Usually leaf blowers eradicate the
peace on Sunday mornings. But the illegal aliens, who
clean people's yards around here, don't try to remove the
leaves when the leaves are wet. Which is one reason I like
rainy days so much. The lesser chain stores, the ones that
sell good-to-medium-quality clothes (I'm not proud, though
I do have some nice things) are still having the same
sales they were having this time last year. They are
stocked full for Christmas, and almost everything is 50%
off, or more. This same sale has been going on
continuously, without interruption, for a very long time.
I don't care what you call it, if a shirt that used to
cost 30 dollars is on sale for 17, and it is never sold
anymore for anywhere near 30 dollars, even if it is called
a sale, that is deflation. The malls are packed. People
are buying things. At the same time, a hundred and fifty
dollars isn't what it used to be. One can taste the change
coming: $150 is not going to be very much somehow, from
now on. I'm not sure why this is. My house originally cost
32,000, in 1972. That's when I bought it. Paid it off a
long time ago. And now the taxes are almost as much as the
original payments. It was appraised recently at 167,000.
Not a palace, except in a few small ways. When it is
entirely remodeled (I am doing the work myself), the
appraiser told me it would probably go for over 200,000.
In California, it was said the other day, houses there
have gone up, in some places, by 25% in the past few
months. "Panic" is the word for that. It's panic buying.
Maybe that has happened here too, I don't know. And don't
care much if it has. The quiet, though, is more than just
a little unusual. It's not only the absence of leaf
blowers. There isn't any sound at all, other than the
rain. Normally when you stick your head out the front
window in my second story living room, you can hear the
roar of the freeway that is about a mile away, and usually
it's a full roar even on Sunday mornings at six a.m. But
this morning, there is no sound at all, like Christmas
day. People take their chance now, whenever they can, to
rest up. Not like the pre-war days, when they were on the
go all the time. People know something is happening. The
seeds of WWIII maybe. That's what some famous person said
the other day, that it's coming. Clearly, the dollar is
pointed down. The P/E ration on the NASDAQ is around 200,
someone said on the news Friday night. Commodities are
going much higher on the chart. Gold is within whisker
space of four hundred, and may go farther, probably a lot
farther. Now the rain is coming down harder. It is
supposed to rain heavier this afternoon. I have always
liked the rain though, as long as it doesn't go on too
long. Last month I visited a particularly unfamous town in
West Texas. Three hundred miles west of here. Still about
five hundred miles east of El Paso. That's what I like
about this place. Two people can live in this State and
never meet each other. Very small place, that town, in a
scrubby valley between some short bare mountains. I could
take my piano there and live pretty well. They even have
five or six pretty good cafes. The quiet there is even
more than here. Big cities are obsolete, in case you
haven't noticed.

GoldiloxParty Hats#11183711/16/03; 09:45:12

@ $Bill

"Subtle Approach" has rarely, if ever, been attributed to my musings!!

GoldiloxTotally unqualified technical analysis#11183811/16/03; 09:55:28

The last few days have delivered widely gyrating movement in the AM, settling out slightly higher at the approach to the close. Maybe Monday is the day the swings cross $400. If so, it may still close below $400, using the cross as a "first test" (if you don't count the $399.5 on Thurs), or the publicity accompanying the perceived event may spark a launch into new territory by Gandolf's mutts, who have recently been exhibiting more of "The Right Stuff"!! I'm in favor of the latter!!

"To the Moon, Alice!"


GoldiloxNice Piece#11183911/16/03; 10:01:40

@Nation of One

Nice pastoral scene - reminiscient of Ralph Vaughn Williams music. My favorite is "The Lark Ascending".

Of course, in NYC or the "City of California", two people can live in the same BUILDING and never meet! Not quite the same!

Dollar Bill*>*............+#11184011/16/03; 10:03:19

Sir Goldilox, My guess is that the US military is a key support of the dollar reserve currency status.
The ability to make war around the globe is a capacity of the US alone.
Terrorism will keep other nations from abandoning the army of the status quo. The key oil states are the those most in need of security. Granted, as years go by, things will change, I think the effort to put the US military under UN control was an effort to gain control of the US military
so that the EU could gain reserve status and fund the US military through the UN regardless of the decline of the US as a result of its losing the reserve benefits.
Or at least I think SOMEONE thought about this at some level of the EU.
China will have to bear reserve currency duties, which are vast and very complicated.
A vast financial infrastructure able to do the tasks the US does. Because without its own complete system, it certainly cannot trust the US and the Jewish and EU financial men to keep from sabatoging China as it nears reserve status strength.

The US and EU will try to keep whatever oil producing countries in thier trade block because when China is powerful enough to take over, the so called "west" will decouple from China into global tradeing blocks with tariffs and any and all other methods.

***I think only the US will occupy the status it has now.
In the future, there will be no such power ever again.
Self interest will keep this from ever happening again.
It happened this time due to many one time factors.
I cannot welcome the changes of the future, as I am at the top of the global heap, and the only way from the top of the mountain is down.
I have wondered if the god wanted a global economy for the future.
I personally have come to the conclusion that the future is the long road back to the local economy. And we have built a nation on global economy. Which will be completely unsuitable to the coming return to local economic design.
I think that by leaving the gold system, we enjoyed many benefits, but the evolution took an nation of farmers and small towns and local industry, and where the future of that could have been a smart, building up of depression resistant local economy with localized needs met in technologically smart ways, instead, with this massive fiat bubble, we have quickly used up a good portion of the global resources, succeeded in making our cities and towns and suburban areas in a way that will leave us WAY out on a limb when the terrorists succeed in demolishing our economy.

In addition, 25 million coffee small farmers all around the globe suffer all at once when industry developes a way to make the cheaper beans less bitter, thereby causeing a depression for 25 million farming groups.
In the way, instead of localized focus for those 25 million, we have gone into one beehive mode. The hive fails, the reserve currency QUEEN fails, the hive collapses.
As this forum knows, that is coming.

Ten BearsTwain: The War Prayer#11184111/16/03; 12:01:40

Perhaps an appropriate read for a Sunday during troubled times...
GoldiloxReserve Status?#11184211/16/03; 12:56:08


I can agree with some of your propositions, but I think that the efforts of the US military-industrial dynasty to use military might to force trade submission to their whims is tainted. From exploits in South America replacing elected governments with despots like Pinochet and Noriega to support for "anti-communist" counter-revolutions, we have witnessed incredible turnarounds of power and allegiances.

While the current administration decries the "terrorist regimes" of bin Laden and Saddam Hussein and freezes assets of their supporters, history is being rewritten in the media to erase the facts that both of these "freedom fighters turned terrorist" rode CIA sponsorship to power. Ollie North was "pardoned" for arming combatants in the Iran-Iraq power struggle directly from the White House. How many remember that the revolutions of both Castro and Ho Chi Min were originally armed by CIA support and later decided that their local needs superceded US corporate interests?

As the puppet governments turn on their big money sponsors in favor of local popular support, the trend towards political and economic localization is a difficult tide to stem. It requires "Wag the Dog" journalism to convince the wesern electorate of the evil undercurrents of said puppets. Once agendas diverge, today's "freedom fighters" become tomorrow's "terrorists" , and they are unfortunately well armed by virtue of their previous networking.

Last night I watched "Rambo III", where the mujahadin were portrayed as heros for resisting Russian occupation. Aren't these the same mujahadin we were eradicating ten years later for their support of "terrorist camps"? How often the switch of political allegiances causes a scramble for identification of the original ideals.

One need not look too deeply into economic motivations to see that oil pipelines and control of energy markets are the major concerns in the middle east. Any political realignments will be dominated by this requirement, and the "story" manipulated in the media to appear otherwise motivated.

One of my great disappointments is the almost complete lack of vision on alternative energy initiatives. It seems incredibly more important to support the oil companies and a policy of energy dependence than to use the huge unemployed technical base in the US to develop competitive alternatives. How unimportant would the middle east turmoil become if a huge effort were focused into serious development of renuable energy sources?

China is very aware of every movement in the middle east. Their growing requirement for oil and natural resources will not allow them the luxury of by-stander status if their supply is threatened. Remember, Pearl Harbor was attacked in 1941 as a response to the Allies cutting off Japan's oil supply.

The Twentieth Century has been described as the "Century of Genecide", claiming over 100 million lives in the various political and economic power struggles. Will economic uncertainties of the twenty-first century continue this trend? Heros and martyrs abound on every side of the political realm, but where are the serious problem solvers?

What do these political meanderings have to do with gold and energy? As I read Another and FOA, I see the world powers aligning directly with their predictions and hear the power struggles "rhyming" right through history's hallowed halls.

CoBra(too)RR on Gold#11184311/16/03; 14:23:26

That is, of course, Richard Russell and upon my return from from the beautiful Pacific NW -even the weather was unusually nice for the season-, I just have seen this powerful statement:
"These primary moves last longer than anyone believes possible - and they take the items higher than anyone thinks possible. We're now in a primary bull market in GOLD".

... and this move is still in its infancy the wise old Dow Theorist concludes. In addition, I would encourage all to read Bill Bonner's latest book "Financial Reckoning Day", which made it to # 7 on the NY Times best-seller list, which in itself is not a mean ploy. Considering it may not please the mainstream brainwash of the media and its hedonic principals, this is a real breakthrough for us and USAGold's money advocates. BTW, BB's speaking prowess is an "Another" pleasure to behold, as I've recently had the pleasure to experience in N.O.

Meantime, as we near the - probably only "psychological" Gold 400 resistance zone against the USD - though, that's were TA comes in akin to the "Madness of Crowds" - reality will set in. The cobwebs of a hedonic USD Standard Seignorage will evaporate as the morn' dew on a sunny day.

I'm forever indebted to MK and his crew for all the endavours to incite an unparalleled learning experience. An experience, which helped me more than anything ever to grasp the reality of Austrian Economists. Being an Austrian, I have to admit that my country had the bad taste to export the Hajek's, Mises', Schumpeter's et al to the US, in order to become globally recogniseed at their time. And even if they ought to be recognised today, more than ever, the establishment chose the easy route to destruction. Following the hedonic laws of the John Law's or J.M. Keynes' and their modern ilk.

I'm also indebted to all of you fellow posters and have learned more reality here than anywhere before.

Thank you all and as tomorrow's new Guv of Kalifornia would have said - I'll Be Back! Hasta la Vista - cb2

PS: Personal thanks also to some fine fellow posters I've had the pleasure to re-meet in N.O. and some new friends I've had the distinct pleasure to meet up with in the Pac.NW. - missed Gandy, though!

GoldendomeCoBra(too)#11184411/16/03; 14:58:23

Your in luck for hearing Bill Bonner, again. For he was the 2nd hour guest of J. Puplava on the Saturday, Financial News Hour, linked above, mp3 or real media.
CoBra(too)@ Goldendome#11184511/16/03; 15:36:45

Thanks for that info. I'm looking forward to listen to four double hours of Jim P's weekly radio shows as time permits.
It's usually my Saturday breakfeast - to almost brunch happy hour.

Cheers cb2

Dollar Bill*>*#11184611/16/03; 16:36:12

Sir Goldilox, The head of the UTC Research Dept told me that although they have a division that makes fuel cells, that they are optomistic that they are on track to put that division out of business because they are thinking they are about to have a breakthrough in technology in the fuel cell research.
One that changes what a fuel cell is like completely.
Not just tweaking the present machines.
That might be a plus for the alternative energy concerns you voiced. You know, by going off the gold standard, and moving to a global fiat economy, I believe I have read how the dollar as reserve currency causes US policy makers to want us to use MORE oil. I forget the precise reasonings.

MarkeTalkCoBra2 rejoinder#11184711/16/03; 16:54:31

Many thanks for the kudos given to the crew here at Centennial/USAGOLD. We also enjoyed meeting you as you made your way from New Orleans up to Vancouver. I wish I could have accompanied you for a "guided" tour of West Vancouver and all of your favorite haunts of days gone by. Ah, well, maybe another time. Or perhaps we will meet again a bit closer to your home.

As to the short-term fate of the gold price, I don't have a crystal ball or a hotline to God. But experience has taught me that a market almost never goes through a major resistance zone on the first try. So I would have to assign a 80% probability that $400/oz. will hold temporarily for a day, a week or even two. The other side of the coin is that we are in the 20% probability phase where there is so much power behind this move that gold will smash through $400/oz. by sometime this week, maybe even tomorrow. Die Zeit findet sich.


Goldbug 1Fur Face predicts#11184811/16/03; 17:06:49

A big move up today.....
MKCB2#11184911/16/03; 17:13:21

I'm going to add my thanks to GC's for stopping-in to to meet the USAGOLD crew on your way to Vancouver, as well as the kind words. It was a pleasure to spend that all too brief afternoon with you. Swapping gold stories and drawing on your years of experience in this industry over lunch at the Fourth Story was truly a pleasure. Take heart, my Austrian friend, in knowing that you have contributed much to this forum and the many who read it. It is people like you who make this forum what it is. We simply provide the venue. I look forward to the next occasion. . . . .
GoldiloxFur Face#11185011/16/03; 17:22:30

Go Fur Face! I like that cat!!!
Goldilox$400 barrier#11185111/16/03; 17:25:37

Damn, it looks like the Asian market is going to upstage our $400 breakout. Nobody here has ever discounted their awareness. It's probably just Marc Faber buying every bar he can get his hands on!
GoldiloxBuck vs. Spot#11185211/16/03; 17:37:29

OK, which will we see first? Dx under 0.91 or Au over $400. They're both just a Fur Face whisker away.
Cavan ManOn the USAGOLD and Centennial team.....#11185311/16/03; 17:40:22

What a class act though we've not always agreed. As 'tis "Not For Gold Alone", I must honestly admit Mike Kosares is counted in the top ten of people I have personally known who have positively influenced my life. Mike, you set my foot upon the right path dear friend. Never thought I'd say that about a guy from Penn State and if I could only get along with other Greeks as well (oh well and whatever....CM)
Goldilox$400 Gold#11185411/16/03; 18:21:22

ino says gold touched $400 as a top in the Asian spot mkt today.
R PowellNumbers#11185511/16/03; 18:50:02

XAU 102.20
HUI 225.94
POG in US dollars 398.60 bid, 399.10 ask

How close are we to a runaway bull market?
Though there may be more breathtaking downturns to raise the emotion of doubt in even the staunchest believer and to insure that the fewest number of paper players profit.

I don't believe anything can stop it now and even silver will strike fire, industrial metal or no. Soon technical and fundamental considerations will become overpowered as well. The market is starting to listen and march to the beat of a different drummer now. It will follow only it's own discipline. I doubt if there's a man or woman alive that really knows the how much or the when of all the coming ups and downs but, I'll bet the farm (or close to it) on the long term trend. (;>

GoldiloxCNBC - heckle and Jeckle#11185611/16/03; 19:22:11

Heckle and Jeckle are interviewing a fellow named Mike Churchill, who maintains that the commodities price growth is really a function of currency inflation and can best be measured for each commodity based on its relationship to POG! What a concept. They are also talking about China's "inexhaustible demand for commodities", in the words of Cramer. GEEEEZ, are these guys waking up, or are they finally being innundated by the flood waters they are unable to sidestep.

Humorously, they accuse Churchill of being the first analyst to call commodities, having said so about a year ago. Wasn't Jim Rogers, who has been calling commodities for 4 years a CNBC regular during the boom? I guess they only credit their current analysts with any brains.

Ok, enough- back to the Cowboy game.

Cavan ManNikkei.....OUCH#11185711/16/03; 19:25:42

Whither the rally?

Asian Stocks Slump, Paced by NEC Corp., Samsung Electronics
Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks slumped, dragging Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average below 10,000 for the first time in three months. NEC Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. led drops in exporters after a government report on retail sales added to concern about the pace of growth in the world's largest economy.

Cavan ManWe're in the middle of an election cycle.....#11185811/16/03; 19:35:40

US agrees to international control of its troops in Iraq
By Leonard Doyle and Stephen Castle in Brussels
17 November 2003

The United States accepts that to avoid humiliating failure in Iraq it needs to bring its forces quickly under international control and speed the handover of power, Javier Solana, the European Union foreign policy chief, has said. Decisions along these lines will be made in the "coming days", Mr Solana told The Independent.

The comments, signalling a major policy shift by the US, precede President George Bush's state visit this week to London, during which he and Tony Blair will discuss an exit strategy for forces in Iraq.

Mr Solana underlined the change of mood in Washington, saying: "Everybody has moved, including the United States, because the United States has a real problem and when you have a real problem you need help." There is a "growing consensus" that the transfer of power has to be accelerated, he said. "How fast can it be done? I would say the faster the better."

Cavan ManKind of on the FOA theme...#11185911/16/03; 19:37:46

What is the beef with Cuber anyway?

Ministers Converge on Miami For Free Trade Talks
VOA News
16 Nov 2003, 22:24 UTC

Trade ministers from 34 nations have gathered in Miami for talks on creating a free trade zone in the Americas. Deputy trade ministers began holding talks Sunday ahead of the higher-level discussions scheduled for later in the week.
The proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas is supposed to cover every country in the western hemisphere, except Cuba, and to begin in 2005.

R PowellGoldilox#11186011/16/03; 20:36:28

Agree with the commodities alert.

The Cowboy's game? Oh, you mean the Patriot's game!

GoldiloxGame#11186111/16/03; 20:56:39

@ Rich

Well, being a 49ers fan, I happily concur! Shut them out for 4! I already watched the Rams steal one from Chicago, so this game might make my day.

GoldiloxRun on $400#11186211/16/03; 20:58:44

The Asian market looks a little like Thursday's run. Touch the mark and scoot back down. We'll see in the morning. Third time's a charm?
21mabryMedia#11186311/16/03; 21:16:24

I recieved the latest addition of Forbes yesterday.I looked through it quickly and saw no articles on the metals.Its kinda of shocking when financial magazines are not writing about one of the hottest sectors around.The brokers can still make commision off paper gold and silver.The investing public is still not tuned into pm investing yet.If you got dry powder use it before they get in.21
cockerel1Cavan Man (11/13/03; 18:22:46MT - msg#: 111741)#11186411/16/03; 21:47:26

"Paris and Berlin are considering plans for a "union of France and Germany" which would allow the two allies, and ancient enemies, to merge their foreign and defence polities and co-operate more closely on education and the economy.

The idea, which would stop well short of a single state with one leader and political system, is seen as a way of creating an indissoluble, "hard" core for the European Union when it expands to 25 member states next year. Although vaguely discussed for many years, the idea of a Franco-German union has been urged recently in private conversations by Jean-Pierre Raffarin, the French Prime Minister, and Dominique de Villepin, the Foreign Minister, the French newspaperLe Monde reported yesterday.

M. De Villepin said that a Franco-German union was "the only historic gamble that we cannot possibly lose".

"I never wanted to belong to any club that would have me as a member" Groucho (and CM)"


First chink in the Euro armour!

France wants to align with Germany?


If the European Union of fifteen is so good, why do the two "Superpowers?" need to align themselves into a single entity? Why do two historical enemies feel it is important to become one? They want to share France's seat within the U.N?

Do they fear that the inclusion of Britain, Poland and Spain could pose a threat to their domination of the "Empire"?

Do they need to impose authority over the new 10 nations that could possibly join next May?

History dictates that the two peoples, France and Germany will never become one. They both remember too well, the conflicts of 1939, 1914, 1870, 1812, and 1805.

Even today, when Bi-lingualism of French and German is encouraged, the language of second choice is English, and that must really rile the French.

Make no mistake: Europe as one is a myth. It will never fly! Too much history! Too much distrust! Too much French!
Too much German! Too much England!

OperativeHome gold shadows global surge #11186511/16/03; 21:48:32

<ALIGN="LEFT"Home gold shadows global surge

Our Commodities Bureau
Published : November 17, 2003

The domestic market witnessed launch of futures trading in gold on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) of India.
December gold futures on the National Multi Commodity Exchange (NMCE) rose from previous Friday's Rs 5747 to today's close of Rs 5876.
The contract witnessed an increase in open position of 48 contracts amid a volume of 218 contracts on Friday, higher than previous Friday's 22 and 50 contracts, respectively.
Trading interest in January contract was negligible at 14 contracts amid an open interest of 5 contracts. January gold future increased from Rs 5800 to Rs 5880 during the week.

Comment: Does not appear to be much interest in the newly opened 'paper gold' markets. Think maybe they prefer the real thing?

OperativeGold Nears $400 as Bombs Weaken Dollar#11186611/16/03; 21:53:03

Gold Nears $400 as Bombs Weaken Dollar

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Gold rose on Monday to just a fraction below the $400-an-ounce level last breached in March 1996, lifted by a weakening dollar and a spate of bombings.
Spot gold rose as high as $399.50 an ounce in early Asian trade.
"There are lot of bulls out there," said one bullion dealer in Sydney. "Japan is probably where the buying will come from. I imagine there will be a lot of profit-taking before we touch $400. Certainly, within the next we few days we are going to break $400."
At 8:35 p.m. EST Sunday, gold was quoted at $397.75/398.50 compared with New York's last quoted level of $397.25/388.00. London bullion dealers set Friday's afternoon fix at $396.70.
On the Tokyo gold futures, the benchmark October 2004 gold contract on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange rose 12 yen per gram to 1,389 yen.
Dealers said a weakening U.S. dollar and persistent violence in the Middle East have raised gold's safe-haven appeal. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-priced gold less expensive for holders of other currencies.

OperativeEuro upbeat, dollar under pressure on Mideast unrest#11186711/16/03; 22:04:50

Euro upbeat, dollar under pressure on Mideast unrest

TOKYO, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The dollar fell against most major rivals on Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East prompted safe-haven buying in European currencies.

The London-based al-Quds al-Arabi newspaper said on Sunday -- early Monday morning in Asia -- it had received a statement from al Qaeda claiming responsibility for attacks on two Istanbul synagogues that killed at least 23 people.

Suicide bombers driving two vans loaded with explosives carried out the attacks on Saturday.

"Since the news about the al Qaeda statement, the dollar has come under fresh pressure this morning," said Junya Tanase, forex strategist at JP Morgan Chase in Tokyo.

The euro hit a three-week high near $1.1845 extending gains

Comment: Looking like gold and Euro have no trail to follow except the one leading to higher evaluations.

DummyANIMitsui Gold-trading Report at TOCOM:#11186811/17/03; 01:52:55$crb,PRPBDAN[PA][DA][F!3!1.0!]&pref=G

Date: Net short change COMEX-Gold CRB cWTI
Oct. 20 62,631c plus2224c...372.2 ..243.31 ..30.68
Oct. 21 67,474c plus4843c...374.4 ..243.46 ..30.35
Oct. 22 58,163. minus9311c...382.0 ..244.79 ..30.18 <---wrong-short
Oct. 23 49,538. minus8625c...386.8 ..245.33 ..29.92 <---wrong-short
Oct. 24 46,545. minus2993c...385.0 ..248.69 ..30.30
Oct. 27 50,838c plus4293c...389.2 ..249.34 ..30.16
Oct. 28 49,296. minus1542c...388.2 ..249.34 ..29.92
Oct. 29 51,053c plus1757c...383.4 ..249.07 ..29.56
Oct. 30 53,108c plus2055c...387.0 ..249.76 ..28.91
Oct. 31 51,174. minus1934c...384.4 ..247.73 ..28.47
Nov. 04 50,855. minus0319c...377.1 ..248.33 ..29.11
Nov. 05 49,206. minus1649c...380.0 ..246.57 ..28.75 <---wrong-short
Nov. 06 49,651c plus0445c...382.7 ..250.13 ..30.30
Nov. 07 51,679c plus2028c...380.7 ..248.64 ..30.26
Nov. 10 51,341. minus0338c...383.4 ..251.03 ..30.85
Nov. 11 51,722c plus0381c...386.7 ..250.71 ..30.88
Nov. 12 52,927c plus1205c...388.2 ..251.60 ..31.15
Nov. 13 61,349c plus8422c...395.0 ..253.13 ..31.33
Nov. 14 62,053c plus0704c...394.3 ..255.00 ..31.90
Nov. 17 61,798.minus0255c...398.0 ..257.29 ..32.37

D-ANI: Nikkei225 is crashed down 380 point, ended at 9,786. A strong Yen is decreasing the dollar damage of Nikkei value.

A rising CRB is attacking on commercial-shorts from all the directions.
A crude oil is rising over $32 per barrel, at least $34, may be $38.
CRB will be rising at least nearly 290 points, if aided by a secular war-economy, rising at 330 points level.
A simple linear prediction:
A Gold bull scenario c.Oil bull scenario cAll bull scenario
CRB ..Gold ..WTI c..CRB ..Gold ..WTIc..CRB ..Gold cWTI
243..372.2 ..30.68 c245 ..386.8 ..29.92 c248 ..384.4 ..28.47<--observed data
253..395.0 ..31.33 c255 ..394.3 ..31.90 c257 ..398.0 ..32.37<--observed data
263..417.8 ..31.98 c265 ..401.8 ..33.88 c267 ..411.6 ..36.27<--predicted data
273..440.6 ..32.63 c275 ..409.3 ..35.86 c277 ..425.2 ..40.17<--predicted data
283..463.4 ..33.28 c285 ..416.8 ..37.84 c287 ..438.8 ..44.07<--predicted data

An average value: CRB(285), Gold(439.7), WTI(38.40) are expected.
Until CRB attains nearly 290 points, Gold will be rising at least $430 per ounce, if possible , gaining at $470 per ounce.
Buy a gold, sell a Yen

Great Albino BatFree Trade for the Americas in 2005#11186911/17/03; 03:25:28

This is the coming offensive of the US Establishment, to swallow up the Western Hemisphere for their benefit.

One of the provisions of this upcoming Treaty, which will be signed by representatives of the Financial Power, and by no means by anyone representing people who are to be disposed of as convenient, is: the Dollar becomes the common currency.

Kindly note this well! This has not been mentioned elsewhere, to my knowledge.

That is the PLAN, whether it can be carried out is another matter. The dollar is collapsing and may lose reserve currency status before 2005. And if the dollar goes into hyperinflation, then with or without Treaty, the Freetrade for the Americas will become a dead horse.

This Treaty is part of the Fortress America psychology of the present rulers of the US. As Sharon is building a wall around Israel - fortress mentality - so the present US Admin. is planning on a "wall" that will include the whole Western Hemisphere as its zone of control.

Watch out for the Free Trade area, so-called. It's another sinister power grab with enslavement for the populations.

The GAB, reporting from Paris.

steadythe chant understood in every language here on earth.#11187011/17/03; 05:39:03


BillinOregonParis#11187111/17/03; 06:53:43


Our son and daughter-in-law are in Paris, I received an E-Mail with a photo last night of them on the Eiffel.


a nation of oneAdam Smith?#11187211/17/03; 07:20:36

If Adam Smith said, "...There is a lot of ruin in a
nation," what he would have meant was that there is a very
lot to be gotten out of a nation that is being ruined.
Margaret Mitchell, in her very great novel, Gone With
The Wind, talked about the same thing. The way she said it
is better: "There is more wealth to be made in the
destruction of a nation, than in the building of one."
That is what we are seeing. The people who are profiting
the most, from America's demise, are the same ones causing
its destruction. There is a lot of it. Therefore it's
taking a long time.

a nation of onedow#11187311/17/03; 07:30:34

When the dow forms a nine-month rounded top in a bear
market rally, it looks like this.

a nation of onedollar#11187411/17/03; 07:32:15

It appears the dollar may have gone below 91 on Sunday.
a nation of onecommodities#11187511/17/03; 07:35:29

Commodities are making new highs.
adminNews & Views#11187611/17/03; 07:38:27


Breaking Gold News.

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

VanRipFree Trade Area Americas - FTAA (continued)#11187711/17/03; 08:09:58

The Palm Beach Post seems to be downplaying the possible loss of the Florida orange and sugar industries if the FTAA agreement is signed and playing up the notion that the trade pact could mean 13.6 billion bucks to the Florida economy and thousands of jobs. The push is to get Miami to be the secretariat, which would have a tremendous spill over into tourism and real estate that would reach north into Palm Beach County.

At least 30000 protesters are not buying it. Already on the march to Miami from nearby towns and cities. Miami adding about 2,500 officers. Reps from all 34 North and South America countries, except Cuba, participating this week.

The following paragraph is the opening shot from Public Citizen's website. The URL is above for those interested in an in-depth look at the opposition

"The Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), currently being negotiated by 34 countries of the Americas, is intended to be the most far-reaching trade agreement in history. Although it is based on the model of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), it goes far beyond NAFTA in its scope and power. The FTAA, as it now stands, would introduce into the Western Hemisphere all the disciplines of the proposed services agreement of the World Trade Organization (WTO) - the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) - with the powers of the failed Multilateral Agreement on Investment (MAI), to create a new trade powerhouse with sweeping new authority over every aspect of life in CanadaÊand the Americas"Ê

Melting Pot"THE MATRIX"#11187811/17/03; 08:19:51

In Vegas, everybody's gotta watch everybody else.
Since the players are looking to beat the casino...
...the dealers are watching the players.
The box men are watching the dealers.
The floor men are watching the box men.
The pit bosses are watching the floor men.
The shift bosses are watching the pit bosses.
The casino manager is watching the shift bosses.
I'm watching the casino manager.
And the eye-in-the-sky is watching us all.
--From the motion picture "Casino:"



In the fiat world everybody's gotta watch everybody else,
Since the players are looking to beat the grand casino...

...the corporations are watching the consumers,

the banks are watching the corporations.

the investors are watching the banks.

the stock brokers are watching the investors.

The SEC is watching the brokers.

The Justice Department is watching the SEC.

The Supreme Court is watching the Justice Department.

The Congress is watching the Supreme Court.

The Treasury Department is watching the Congress.

The President is watching the Treasury.

The Internal Revenue Service is watching the President.

The bond markets are watching the IRS.

The Federal Reserve is watching the bond markets.

The FOREX markets are watching the FED.

Silver is watching the FOREX.

Gold is watching Silver.

Oil is watching Gold.

TPTB are watching oil.

And the eye-in-the-sky is watching us all!

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.An Invitation to Prospective Clients....#11187911/17/03; 09:30:24">News and Views
TownCrierFederal Reserve shows how easy it is to pump money#11188011/17/03; 10:29:42

The Fed pulled an old Y2K trick out of its hat, initiating an atypical long-term monetary injection today with $4 billion added through 52-day repurchase agreements. In a second open market operation today, the Fed engaged in an additional injection of money that was typical in duration if not in quantity. A round of overnight repos totaled $12 billion.

Today's $16 billion came at the soft tapping of a few keyboard strokes in the wake of Friday's $7.75 billion weekend repo running off.

"Let there be liquidity", and there was liquidity, and it was good.

May I recommend at this time a healthy diversification into gold? Call Centennial for the best in friendly and knowledgeable assistance for getting precious metals into your portfolio.

Toll Free
(800) 869-5115 ext. 100


Gandalf the WhiteWHY are some Goldhearts feeling down today ?#11188111/17/03; 10:30:10

Just ANOTHER "pre-Xmas" sale !
You will not get too many more opportunities like this !!
The Hobbits are going to GIVE the USAGOLD -- Centennial Precious Metals Inc. order Desk a call today, as "IT" prices have been HAMMERED !
Would you rather want to buy some STOCKS today ?
"NOT to WORRY", Alice -- it's still "TO THE MOON !"

Clink!Just remember#11188211/17/03; 10:45:10

If the gold price is bopped, like today, we all get a Buy OPportunity !

Paper AvalancheIf there was ever a more flagrant display of manipulation.....#11188311/17/03; 10:47:05

I would like to see it.

POG hit $399.80 in Asia overnight and then is ceremoniously dropped $14 today.


If it is any consolation, those people who are selling paper gold do not have the physical to deliver and today's exercise is simply postpones the inevitable.

No man or group of men has ever been able to indefinitely postpone the inevitable. That's why they call it inevitable.

Tick tock.


CoBra(too)@ Gandy#11188411/17/03; 10:59:40

I'm right with you there, friend.

The 3 phase "BOP" of POG today smells rather comical. A desperate last ditch effort before the cabal runs out of physical reality. Let's let 'em win the day as we'll be winning for a long time to come. cb2

PS: Hope your family prob's have been concluded positively and we'll be able to meet up at my next trip in spring.

AgingfastTown Crier:#11188511/17/03; 11:28:18

Do you understand that the Fed HAD to increase its holdings of securities dramatically when the Y2K panic resulted in the fearful public dramatically increasing its holdings of currency? Are you aware that the huge increase in its holdings of securities at the end of 1999 merely kept pace with the huge increase in currency in circulation (CIC) and did NOT result in any increase in Excess Reserves (Total Reserves minus Required Reserves)? Do you understand that at this time of year the Fed HAS to increase its holdings of securities to match the typical Thanksgiving/Christmas increase in CIC and that it's unlikely that those acquisitions will result in any meaningful increase in Excess Reserves? Can't you see that the Fed is merely meeting balance sheet requirements created by CIC increases that are triggered by the public? If the desk failed to offset the large drain of reserves caused by large CIC increases at this time of year, Excess Reserves would quickly become a very large negative figure.
Gandalf the WhiteYES, Sir CB2 --- a "huge" SPRING Goldheart get together in the Pacific Northwest !!!#11188611/17/03; 11:31:03

I shall start to make plans ! I know Lady Waverider loves to give parties, <;-) so I shall send out Hobbits, through the Hole in Mt. Tye to reach the dry half of Washington, and get invites delivered to Sir PIZZ and Sir Z, and the other Eastern Goldhearts, while I am making contacts with Mr. G, BIG John, and the other Western Goldhearts.
PERHAPS, we could convince SIR M. K. to stop hitting that GOLDEN colored ball in the CO snow, and make it to the PARTY in the Pacific Northwest too !
Have you an indication of the general date of your visit ?
OR, SHHHHHH --- are you traveling incognito on that trip ?

AristotleBeating the drum again on the case of personal industry and markets; of making and keeping wealth#11188711/17/03; 11:47:15

It's a prevailing truth that that only thing harder than making money is keeping what you've made.

It's easy to be lured toward the get-rich-quick scheme -- the fast and easy buck -- but markets of all types have an exceptional ability to move up and down in just such a way to disappoint the majority, drawing them in at the peaks and watching them flee at the bottoms.

As perilous as investements are, it becomes tempting for the masses, schooled by hard knocks, to finally vow to forgo investments of all types to sit on pure cash. Unfortunately and inevitably these folks, too, get burned in the end by the often steady and sometimes dramatic unending downward trajectory of the purchasing power of money.

Through most paths you'll ever walk, the money you struggle to make today is not the wealth that will survive your journey.

For the sake of your own health and peace of mind, assume *assume* that the only money you'll ever make/earn are your own paychecks, AND the only wealth you'll ever HAVE is the pile of chips you take off the table today in the form of tangible goods.

FINALLY.... if you can truly embrace that truism, going forward you'll tend to work harder and smarter, your stress level will be less and less, and your real wealth will indeed grow and grow.

With people all over the wide world in this exact same boat, Gold naturally maintains its universal luster and role as the appreciating liquid vehicle for savings par excellence. Everywhere! Put yourself on a personal Gold standard -- a standard for honest and sound savings. Know the size and shape of your wealth!

Day-to-day price volitility is the characteristic market noise to fleece all those who are still foolish and actively chasing notions to make a fast and easy buck. Their daily margin calls tend to eat them alive on the way down just as surely as their counterpoint greed prevents them from taking any profits during the upside.

As a friend reminded me, buying Gold IS the "easy money" because the marketplace has yet to recognize what its real value is behind the oppressive veil of derivatives.

Your life, your choice. As for me, I try to keep it all stress-free and simple enough to maximize my experience. That is to say...

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Gandalf the WhitePicture worth THOUSANDS of ounces of YELLOW !#11188811/17/03; 12:04:27

Three BOP's and a BOUNCE !
Now that the CABAL has had its fun --- we shall try for the $400. level again tomorrow !
GET ready to ROCK AND ROLL !

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#11188911/17/03; 12:35:49">
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

A lot of interesting commentary by precious metals market analysts and market strategists today. Not everyone is "bullish" on gold but then they simply salesmen for equities trading houses and have little real experience and knowledge of the markets and the "real world" for that matter (they just wet their fingers and see which way the wind blows rather than examine the strong fundamentals and reasons for "portfolio insurance"). In spite of exceptionally strong fundamentals for precious metals, the price of gold fell lower in New York trade on profit-taking as some "weak hands" - Funds and speculators booked profits. This triggered some additional program selling. Meanwhile equities in the global market dived and geopolitical tensions are on the rise again as the war in Iraq is not going as well as anticipated and other regions see rising threats of terrorism and war.

Look at the dip in prices today as a gift while the "smart money" continues to accumulate precious metals and the lower the price - the more likely bargain hunters will emerge once more to take on more physical "portfolio insurance". You just can't "print gold" like national paper currencies. In coming months the Chinese market will be further liberalized for individuals in Mainland China, strong buying in Asia and the Middle East, and large funds that are prevented from holding hard assets will likely be allowed to take on Gold in the form of tradeable EFT's on the NYSE. And of course with Christmas around the corner and strong retail sales reported by jewelers, the outlook for more physical off-take looks especially strong going forward.

Meanwhile as we are on the subject of the "gift-giving season" of Christmas and followed shortly by Valentines Day and tightness in the supply of physical precious metals be sure to look over the selection of Gold gifts (jewelry, watches, coins, and bullion) here at USAGOLD. Gold, Silver, and Platinum - the gifts that keep on giving.

Jon H. Warner

Dollar Bill*>*#11189011/17/03; 14:40:04

A piece of information on Sir MK's commentary page has moved off to make way for more info, in case you missed it, I was taken aback to read that 80% of American investors lost money during the stock decline.
And just by coincidence, I was about to go into a Radio Shack store today when from the door I saw that one of the salespeople was a man who had inherited a couple million
in about 99. I know he lost some money on stocks, but at age 63, for him to be working again, he must have lost it all. Enron? Or another hallucination passing for a company with a business plan and a future back in 99?
Imagine that 2 million invested in gold in 99.
I didnt go in the store. An act of mercy.

ProtossRemarkable resilience#11189111/17/03; 17:54:19

Despite the whacking that our friend took today I see a near $6 revival in the last hour of trading.

Further, gold (spot) is up a couple bucks at the present moment to near $393.

Cytek****** $50,000.00 REWARD *******#11189211/17/03; 18:26:32

Monday, November 17, 2003, 3:38:00 PM EST

Gold Market Summary

Author: Jim Sinclair

Look at the good side! Each time the Big Boys snooker us at these levels, they actually eliminate the weak hands in the Gold Community.

Today's decline was a pure power play and in my opinion a manipulation by COT option writers for the sole purpose of preventing the strike $400 December gold Calls from expiring in the money.

However, my observation is that the game of expiration is not yet over on the bullish side. In terms of respecting the opposition, I must say that the coordinated selling was quite professional. It certainly appeared to have all the market credentials of a coordinated action.

If this is the crime that I believe it is, there is a U.S. paper trail out there that lies quietly as an NY State smoking gun, the most lethal in the country. The difference between the Gold Cartel and this Gold Community is that we do not talk to each other. Anything we do or don't do is done independently.

Today's market action had the earmarks of coordinated action between gold sellers who transacted on the NY Comex Exchange. If true, that would be a crime in New York State regardless of where on earth the order comes from. Attorney General Eliot Spitzer are you listening?

Those that work together do in fact manipulate in a classic legal sense. Clearly, that gives them an advantage that we do not have or want for that matter. However, since these manipulators have losses behind them, do not concern yourself. Gold will not remain down because the US dollar is hopeless and heading lower.

I have a contact who asked me to inform the Gold Community that he will pay a reward of $US50,000 in gold coins for hard evidence of commercial dealers conspiring to launch actions such as we have seen today. I will personally guarantee his payment.

I would ask that you post this offer on every gold chat site on the Internet. Let millions of people read it so that the person we need will do the right thing and expose these illegal actions. The evidence must be obtained legally so as to be potent. Such evidence is not a mathematical compilation of the repeated anomalies in the marketplace but rather the smoking gun of a conversation, email, or affidavit of a conversation concerning manipulation of the markets.

The Invisible HandScrew Jim Sinclair!#11189311/17/03; 19:39:50

Why do you want to help bureaucrats like Eliot Spitzer?
Gold is going to da moon, whatever happens.
What's the point in gathering hard evidence of commercial dealers conspiring to launch actions such as we have seen today, thereby merely delaying the moon landing?
Grow up, please!

Chris PowellToday was a victory for precious metals, not a defeat#11189411/17/03; 19:42:10

Latest GATA dispatch.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

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CoBra(too)Pacific North West Spring Goldheart Gathering#11189511/17/03; 19:54:50

@ Gandy - That'll be a wonderful idea, though due to my upcoming move to a new house in the middle of the forests of the Vienna Woods (lots of trees to bury my treasure), I'll probably won't make it before May.

I've been thinking, though, to organize a leisurely trip to see gold poured at an operating gold mine. It's only a 3-4 hours drive from Vancouver and there is a beautiful resort in the neighborhood at the Tyax Lake, to stay overnight and of course celebrate. Lunch at the camp would be no problem either and for those who'd like to go underground it'll be arranged. Also a tour of the mill, essay labs and the whole works may be a worthwile experience.

Just an idea - though, imagine to see real money poured - a sight to behold! Get the hobbits to work on it as well ;>)
Best cb2

ToolieDear Cabal,#11189611/17/03; 19:57:32

Thank you for your extraordinary efforts on my behalf. But, at the risk of sounding ungrateful, may I please have a little more.

My trade is being sent overseas. I don't suspect I've got more than a few years left in it, as someone in China will do it for 1/10 the wage. I mention this because it strikes me that you may find yourself in the same boat soon. Let's face it, now that high skill jobs are leaving the US, you're on borrowed time. Look at your prospects, who do you think is going to sell gold for a strong currency policy? No, my friends, the more that I think about it, your situation is much more distressed than mine. I don't have people putting bounties on my paper trails, or nosey Attorney Generals snoopin’ around. A quick drop down to oh… 350 or so may provide us both a little protection ;-) But, if not for yourself, could you find it in your cold, little, black hearts to help a fella that's tryin’ to stretch every buck.


Black BladeMarket Wrap Up – Puplava#11189711/17/03; 22:15:18


Today's Markets

Major stock indexes fell on Monday for the third consecutive session. There were a number of reasons as to why stocks fell from increased terrorist threats to increased mutual fund and other financial scandals, which are a common weekly occurrence. Today's drop in U.S. stock prices follows on the heels of steep declines in the Japanese and European markets. Markets were also concerned over Friday's sharp increase in the rate of producer goods inflation.

Tomorrow, the government will report the CPI numbers for October. Gold prices have been signaling trouble, rising close to $400 an ounce. The Fed can not afford to see gold prices rise, because it will mean the end of confidence in its inflation schemes, so large vested interests attacked gold today driving down its price. The Fed hopes money will go into the bond market driving down yields, which is what it did. The price of Treasury bonds rose as equity markets fell. However, even a late round of buying in the futures pit failed to stem the day's losses. Large buying in futures managed to only to trim the day's losses.

Black Blade: A good read on "inflation" in today's report by Jim Puplava. I am interested in tomorrow's CPI number (even though massaged more than one gets in a Bangkok massage parlor). The PPI data last week should have opened a few eyes but Wall street has a short memory and of course there was the last hour "miracle recovery" in the New York equity markets lifting the indices higher from triple digit losses to double digit losses on light volume. The upcoming expiry on options has a few Funds and speculators booking profits on Gold but then this is only a bump in the road as usual. On a side note I did have to laugh at the Morgan Stanley TV commercials describing how concerned their brokers and advisors are for each individual investor even as they have been screwing over the "small fry" investors (you and me) by picking our pockets for their privileged investors and personal gain for individual managers at the investment house. Sure the SEC gave them a "slap on the wrist" with a fine of $50 million but that's about a few minutes of revenue for these scammers. The SEC is a joke and that's why it will always be up to states attorney generals to hunt down these crooks in the continuing scandals of mutual fund rip-offs and fraudulent trading activities. I see Putnam Investments is bleeding cash now as states and corporations drop these crooks too. It will spread as more mutual funs and investment banks are exposed for what the crooks that they are. It is up to you to take responsibility for your investing as institutions are only concerned with how much they can squeeze the ignorant investors. As always, get outta debt and stay outta debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months’ expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance (I sure am glad I did an didn't suffer with the millions of other suckers after the big speculative stock mania imploded), and definitely start a storage program of nonperishable food an basic necessities as the future is always uncertain (lay offs, family illness, natural disaster, etc.).

BTW, Newmont CEO Pierre Lassonde gave a good interview on Kudlow and Cramer describing much the same scenario of rising inflation and deficits (right at the end of the program). I had to stop and listen as he said that "$400 an ounce is a not a matter of if but when". My sentiments exactly – short interview but to the point.

Black BladeSchwab Fund Probe Finds 18 Late Trades; Two Are Fired #11189811/17/03; 22:27:54


Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Charles Schwab Corp. said its investigation of illegal mutual fund activities has found 18 after-hours trades, and five arrangements allowing investors to buy and sell rapidly. Two employees who deleted e-mails sought in the investigation have been fired, the company said. The after-hours trades, which are illegal, involved some of the more than 4,000 funds sold by rival fund companies that Schwab customers can buy and sell through the company's fund marketplace, a service the company pioneered. The so-called market-timing arrangements, which allowed clients to trade fund shares rapidly, involved Excelsior funds offered by Schwab's U.S. Trust unit. New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, who started the investigation of the $7 trillion U.S. mutual fund industry, has subpoenaed Schwab records. Schwab Chief Executive David Pottruck said in a message to employees that two employees had attempted to delete e-mails sought in the probe.

Black Blade: The SEC of course is nowhere to be found here. Don't believe that this is a widespread activity on Wall Street? Of course it is and it has been an open secret for many years. Meanwhile a couple of minor sacrificial lambs were offered up. The mutual fund scandals continue and this is only the tip of the iceberg unless the government calls the dogs off.

Black BladeJanus Found Frequent Trading in Its Funds#11189911/17/03; 22:40:37


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Janus Capital Group Inc., which has been named in a probe of mutual fund trading, said it had uncovered significant instances of frequent trading of its funds. Janus said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday that its internal review had uncovered 12 arrangements that allowed market timing, or frequent trading, across its U.S.-based mutual fund business. Janus, which had been named in a complaint by New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer as having allowed hedge fund Canary Capital to engage in market timing in certain Janus funds, said its internal review found that significant frequent trading appeared to have occurred in four of the 12 arrangements.

Black Blade: Yep, more scandals to come. Oh yeah, and Bear Sterns and Alliance Capital are also under investigation too. I would like to see the AG go after the clients in tese "arrangements" as well. They are stealing from the "small fry" too.

Black BladePilgrim Baxter Founders Step Down Amid Fund Trading Probe #11190011/17/03; 22:44:40

Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Pilgrim Baxter & Associates Ltd. said the company's founders Harold Baxter and Gary Pilgrim stepped down amid an industrywide investigation of improper mutual fund trading. Baxter and Pilgrim ``have resigned their management positions with the firm and have accelerated their planned retirements,'' President David Bullock said in a statement.

Black Blade: And the list just keeps growing!

Black BladeNo inflation? #11190111/17/03; 23:05:09

The Fed says it can't find much inflation anywhere. Consumers might argue otherwise.


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The Federal Reserve sees so little inflation in the economy that it's more worried about an "unwelcome fall" in inflation than an unwelcome rise. Take a look at what's going on with prices, and you might wonder where the Fed is getting its information. To start with, commodity prices from soybeans to cotton to grade A broilers have been running higher this year -- a factor in Friday's surprising rise in the producer price index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level. The Commodity Research Board's index of commodity prices touched a new 6-1/2 year high Thursday. The industrial materials index administered by the Journal of Commerce and the Economic Cycle Research Institute is rising at a 33.7 percent annual clip. "The basic message is unambiguous -- you've got inflation," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute. Nor is it just wholesale prices that are moving higher. Take a look in the guts of the nation's key reading on inflation -- the consumer price index -- and you'll find that many of a typical household's big expenditures have risen markedly over the past year.

From September of last year to September this year the cost of education, according to the CPI data, has risen 7 percent. Medical costs are up 4 percent, utilities are up 8.6 percent. All of these much higher than the overall CPI, which grew at just a 2.3 percent rate, and the "core" CPI, which excludes food and energy prices because they're so volatile, and which grew just 1.2 percent. "The things that make up the bulk of consumer expenditures for most U.S. households -- all of them seem to be moving up significantly," said Carlos Asilis, portfolio manager with the hedge fund Vega Asset Management.

So what's keeping the reading on inflation low? Asilis thinks one big piece of the picture is housing. In computing the CPI, the Bureau of Labor Statistics assigns a 22.2 percent weighting -- the most of any item -- to something called "owners' equivalent rent of primary residence." Basically, it's an estimate of what homeowners might pay in rent if they rented their homes instead of owning them. To calculate this, the BLS looks at actual rents, compares them to owned residences and then uses that to calculate housing costs. (Note: This is also recorded as "imputed income" by the BLS – another scam technique used to massage economic data by government scammers employed as BLS statisticians whose job is to deceive the US public). "The CPI is correct in measuring consumer prices," said Miller Tabak bond market strategist Tony Crescenzi. "But it's not correct in measuring the cost of living."

Black Blade: I know as I use statistics rather consistently but I avoid massaging data. However, I have seen the math abused and used to reach a desired conclusion by everyone from unethical economists to scientists. It's a shame but it does and will continue to happen. Always focus on the raw data first (that is provided it is even given an available). Still I am interested to see if tomorrow's CPI data will be higher (even though heavily massaged).

CaradocA present for MK?#11190211/17/03; 23:14:53

Not gold, just silver. But it already has his initials...
GoldiloxNo Inflation#11190311/17/03; 23:40:47


Statistics do not lie, but liars use statistics!

COL increases do not include food, energy, or housing. This IS the COL, as most other things are either luxuries or necessities comprising a very a low amount of COL (soap, clothing, etc.). If I eliminate housing, energy, and food, my COL is about $50 month, if that. As a Californian, housing comprises between 25 and 75% of our monthly outgo, depending on whether or not the car is owned outright.

GoldiloxPresent#11190411/17/03; 23:43:15

@ Caradoc-

An absolutely fantastic find. especially considering MK's new gift pages. Now if you can only get email to the missus . . .

slingshotMidas Crusade#11190511/17/03; 23:52:28

This army of Goldbugs had quicken its pace with renewed vigor and the distance to the gorge come to an end. They gazed at a tremendous rift in the mountain range that made easy passage but they knew they would encounter blockages that would take time to clear. The first two days produced sights that were majestic. Sometimes the sides of the gorge had a gentle slope and other times the walls were straight up,revealing the strata of the rock. The passage wound its way as if it was a made by a giant snake. In some bends you could see the mountain tops in the distance and with snow on their crest, appeared like dragons teeth.
The small campfires light reflected off the gorges floor as beach sand and the torches flickered illuminating the column. Yet, as sentries were posted the terror came in the dark.
As they Goldbugs stood in the light of the campfires, the arrows came.
The first knight to be struck was standing between his friends. He was motionless for a few seconds before falling to the ground. Others tried to help him and a second arrow found its target. The goldbugs now found cover under the wagons or gathered in groups using their shields to give them cover.
This onslaught may have gone on through the night except for Cougar had seen this tactic before. It was to stike fear in the hearts of the Goldbugs. The attckers had chosen a place in the gorge that slope with heavy brush in which to hide. Close to the column with the cover of darkness to insure accuracy of their shots. But Cougar was an old hand at using his surroundings to his benfit and grabed a torch and tossed in in the brush. "Fire the brush" he yelled as the first one caught on to the tender made of dried wood. More and more torches were thrown into the brush.And with a breeze that blew through the gorges floor, the fire grew and raced upward upon the slope.
The arrows stopped. Then images rose from their hiding places. They moved franticly to escape the fire but their efforts were in vain. For in a short time the fire overtook them and they perished.
The Goldbugs watch as the fire run its course and in the morning they looked upon the scorched earth and again may their way to Hammerton.
One would think that these mauraders of the night would withdraw for good. A day later the arrows came again.
This time only rock and dirt lay before them. A moonless night to give more cover and conceal movement.
But they were mistaken if they felt safe.
The first arrows found their mark. Althought terrible the Goldbugs did not panic. There was a solution. They just had to think.
Sir Slingshot had move about the wagons to reach the side of Gandalf. He placed his shield in front of them just as an arrow hit it. Slingshots dogs lay down by his side.
Good to see you, Sir Slingshot, said Gandalf with a smile.
Always good to see you my friend, answered Sir Slingshot.
A second arrow hit the shield.
Which one do you think they want the most dead. You or I?
It was then both Wally and Sadie,Slingshots dogs began barking.
That's it. What's it asked Gandalf. The dogs said Sir Slingshot.
In those days a large army took with them hunting dogs to kill game to feed them. Many Knights and Nobles had them for protection.
The dogs can see in the dark and will track down our assailants by scent. They will not see them till it too late'said Slingshot.
Where will you get their scent, asked Gandalf.
From the feathers of their arrows! Each archer strokes them to insure they are straight before he places the arrow upon the bow.
Cougar! Yelled Slingshot. And before long Cougar was at their side.
We need the arrows! What? asked Cougar. We need the arrows to give scent to the dogs to hunt to enemy.
Yes, said Cougar. The two went out to collect the arrows and I dare say a few of these deadly missles come close.
One could wonder as to what the enemy was thinking as two insane Goldbugs ran about collect their spent arrows.
They met at the wagon that held the hunting hounds. They called the dogs by name. Jupiter, Mars and Hades smelled the flights of the arrows and began to bark vehemently.
The dogs willing to please their masters combined with the primevil erge to hunt whipped into a frency.
" Release the Hounds" was heard, and the gates were opened.
The pack of dogs ran into the darkness, silently at first. Streaks of other dogs could be seen leave the light of the campfires.
It was not long before the they found their prey.

The arrows of the night would be no more.


Black BladeEnergy Agency Raises Oil Demand Estimates #11190611/17/03; 23:57:09


LONDON -- Signs of an accelerating global economy, propelled by torrid growth in China, has led the International Energy Agency -- a watchdog for the world's biggest oil-importing countries -- to boost estimates for crude demand for this year and 2004. In its influential monthly oil market report, the IEA said Thursday that it has increased its forecast for average daily demand growth in 2003 by 170,000 barrels, arguing now that demand will grow this year by 1.28 million barrels a day. The Paris-based agency expects daily oil demand to average 78.6 million barrels in 2003.

Chinese oil demand is set to rise by 9 percent this year. At this rate, China will overtake Japan as an oil consumer in the second half of 2003, the agency said. "At this juncture, China is the engine of oil demand growth with significant room for further expansion in the industrial and transportation sectors," the report said. Despite some concerns that the Chinese economy may overheat, the IEA expressed confidence in the country's continued strong demand for crude in 2004. China alone should account for nearly 30 percent of global growth next year, after contributing roughly 35 percent in 2003, the report said.

Rob Laughlin, managing director of London-based brokerage GNI Man Financial sounded a note of caution about China, which for much of the year has served as "a dustbin for oil that couldn't find a home" anywhere else. If China's economy continues to sizzle, it could eventually squeeze supplies required by Western countries as they regain their own appetites for crude, he said.

Black Blade: Energy prices are destined to remain high hitting US corporations hard on the bottom line. As China gathers over a $billion/day in new manufacturing capacity the strain on global oil output will continue to keep the pressure on oil prices far into the future as they rely ever more heavily on imports.

slingshotGandalf the White#11190711/18/03; 00:14:27

Msg# 111881

Yes, my friend the price of Gold Was Hammered. But it is at HAMMERton we will set gold FREE!
Gold at $400 is not enough. Gold above $450 will bring in the big investors.
So my fellow Knights and Ladies,Hammerton has many gates to breach. We must stand steadfast in our beliefs. It will not be easy.

BelgianMister Gold.....#11190811/18/03; 01:02:20

Five kilogram of Bullion for evidence of the "obvious" !?
Seventy years of " Gold-Control "...fixed goldprice...paper-opinion-goldprice...UNFREE Gold in a controlled market !
And Mister Gold wants evidence for this !?

Nothing,...ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, happened to those golden coins in "my" fist ! But, yesterday...a lot happened to the gold-paper that many are trading.
Yesterday, the goldminers "had" to sell their excavated precious for less confetti ! I wasn't selling...and will not barter my yellow "Wealth" for another * paper-opinion-price * !

I don't need evidence or a reward for understanding "What" kind of confetti-price, Gold-Wealth is fetching in this Unfree Gold market ! There is NO goldmine anymore that carries the name "Freegold" !

Do we need evidence for the manipulative currency-wars or interest rate settings !? Do we need evidence for large scale, official (!!!), stock market interventions !?


Note : The liberalization of Gold in China, means that 1,3 Billion Chinese will have the possibility (freedom) to acquire Bullion from their "BANKS" !!! Banks, the confetti distributors, also providing Real Wealth for those who wish to exchange the confetti for Personal Precious Yellow in Possession !!! Repeat...Banks selling Gold à la Euro-model !

GoldendomeResponse to Mes.# 111893 Disparagement of James Sinclair#11190911/18/03; 01:14:29

Sir Invisible Hand: I believe your extreme disparagement of James Sinclair in your message, may indicate your own personal frustration at the Gold market's action on Monday. Were you looking to kick someone--anyone?

Some people may not care for the bluster and braggadocio of Sinclair, but he attempts (I think) to instill confidence and Swagger in those that read his commentaries and wish as we do, for the freeing of gold from the clutches of it's manipulators.

Is there an illegal conspiracy that is cheating the long side of the market? I don't know, but if he is willing to put up $50,000 to gather evidence, why complain? I have seen and read countless posts by our fine members, complaining in the same light of conspiracy; the central banks, the cartel, etc.

As far as reporting alleged wrongdoing to bureaucrats, or to Elliot Spitzer in particular, if your a stock investor, again, I don't know why you would be complaining unless you were one of the illegal traders that got caught! Perhaps you feel Spitzer is grandstanding or showboating, but for one, I feel he's showed more interest in correcting the illegal trading practices than has the S.E.C. The S.E.C. has seemed more like the poacher being in charge of the game reserve.

You may take the opinion that the market will win out in the end,fine, but a fair and legal playing field is desired and demanded in all endeavors! After all, without free and fair markets there are a lot of us here, that may not live long enough for the backwater of "right" in the gold market, to finally break through the concrete dam of central bank deception and dishonesty, if it does indeed exist.

I Sir, am happy that Mr. Sinclair is on our Side!! Whatever his course, it is for a free and higher price of Gold and Silver. I believe you should consider your comments more carefully before disparaging the action or talk of some one fighting as he is for our more common interests.

Good evening to you Sir, ---------Gdome

The Invisible HandMes.# 111893 Disparagement of James Sinclair#11191011/18/03; 01:36:34


I'll capitalise your text and I'll put my remarks in normal text

Markets can only be interfered with by the government, not by private players except if they have the force of government behind them.

The manipulators wouldn't have gotten where they are without government's help

Central banks, yes, that's government, that you must attack because that has the (legal monopoly of governmental) force behind it to impose its decisions.
Cartel, you can attack only if it has something public among its members (granted I am not speaking in terms of the law, I am speaking in terms of justice)

If you're a stock investor "love it or leave it’. Sell your shares if you're dissatisfied with the company's management. Repeal the SEC.

Free and fair markets, at the point of a gun?
Central bank deception is again the government.

If markets must be fair, so should fighting, fighting with immoral laws, like antitrust laws, is unfair.

Same to you.

The Invisible Hand

slingshotBelgian#11191111/18/03; 01:55:20

$50,000.00 Reward

Good Morning to you Sir.

I had to think as to what purpose this reward woud serve. My conclusion is that it will serve none. If TPTB planned the conspiriscy, they have done it well. There will be no definate act to point to. Only TIME will prove out what we suspect. Many are warned, few listen. It is because the answer is so complex, it can not be answered with a simple yes or no. They have made it such. We search endless commentaries for the truth and drull over graphs and TA only to go back what are basic instincts say as the data screams gold should be higher.
Now Belgian, You know me to be a Royal PITA. We both know where gold is going. This $50,000 reward will never be claimed. It will be just too late.

Zenideafractals#11191211/18/03; 02:08:27

I C the volitile situates, amist the maths.
slingshotZenidea#11191311/18/03; 02:23:02

E=Mc2 (Au) X 186,000 mi/sec. equals explosive price of Gold.


CoBra(too)Corruption & Gold - by Phillip M. Spicer (Central Fund of Cda.)#11191411/18/03; 02:34:54

Nice philosophical piece on gold, the antithesis of corruption. The tide has turned and even AG, the modern world's King Kanute, won't be able to stem it.

slingshotCOBRA II#11191511/18/03; 02:43:20


One hell of a link.

I Salute you.


The Invisible HandYes, G-dome,#11191611/18/03; 02:44:49

I should have been more tactful before criticising Mr. Sinclair.
I apologise to Mr. Sinclair if he still has the courage to read.
But even GATA recognised in the message posted less than three minutes after me that yesterday's beating would have no long term influence.
Again my apologies to anyone I may have offended.
I am a 40 years old anarchist and fighting half my life against antitrust laws and sometimes my emotions get me.

slingshotJim Sinclair#11191711/18/03; 03:12:41

$50,000 Reward

Ladies and Knights I read his articles and believe in what he stands for but, is this Grand Standing? If he is right he does not to prove nothing! Does not have to pay nothing! His word is his money and our fortune too!

Mr Sinclair. Let us not cheapen our cause with Grandioso Rewards .

Let us win on our own merit.

Slingshot------------ ,.

slingshotInvisible Hand#11191811/18/03; 03:17:05

Meet a conserative revolutionist for 30 years.



BelgianSir slingshot....#11191911/18/03; 03:36:22

IMVHO, your statement..." Gold above $ 450 will bring in the Big investors" misleading. Why...?

What is so special about the number $ 450 ? Nothing !
This $450 price is another-one in the long row of altering arbitrairy paper-prices that express a temporary balance of "opinion", based on nothing. Not even offer/demand laws or production/mining costs ! Simply because these goldprices do NOT represent a FREEGOLD PHYSICAL market !

The real Big Gold investors, you are referring to, are those who wish to add more physical Gold to their existing, growing stashes. These Giants, permanently worry about the "availability" (flow) of the physical Gold ! THEY DO NOT BOTHER ABOUT GOLD'S PAPER PRICE !!!

These Giants don't count in ounces, kilograms...but in tonnes of Gold. These Giants know, by nature, that confetti is only a worthless numeraire. And they want to get rid as soon as possible from their excesses of confetti or digital credits and consolidate this intrinsically worthless paper into a value everlasting (everyellow) tangible !!!

TA on POG is a gold-paper-trader's affair. Physical Gold is accumulated at whatever price, when excesses of confetti can't reproduce (proliferate) itselve sufficiently/safely/conveniently/etc...

If and when the global confetti fabrication gets starts to pay more attention to the real nature of that confetti and the risk of discovering that it is totally worthless, pops up again and causes a reaction into an accelerated accumulation of Physical Gold !

That's when the arbitrary paper-gold circus runs into trouble. Not enough physical gold is available for running the circus.

Think about the Swiss goldsales, again ! Why are these smarties selling at the pace of 1 (one) tonne a day and not auctionning the whole batch, the UK way !? None...NONE of these Big goldsales, leave any traces !!! All gold commentators should "think" very deep about this and analyse WHY this is happening, instead of wasting time on paper-derivative-gold !

The gold shops in Mosul (Northern Iraq) are open and running again ! These people, still know the "real" meaning of Gold and the "insignificance" of temporary, etheric paper tools ! These people have no message on confetti-creation (expansion). More confetti means simply more GOLD for them ! We are the ones who remain confetti-paper-addicted...ADDICTED !

The financial dollar-brotherhood is worried about the psychology that could develop when POG goes beyond $400/Oz.
This could bring the needed availability of physical gold into the dangerzone, due to brusk Gold uptake by small goldphiles. Excessive uptake of physical Gold is threathening the dollar-management (support). Paper POG *must* remain in line with the dollar's evolving exchange rate ! Physical Gold simply ignores the dollar's exchange rate ! Big difference ! That's WHY everything is OK for as long as the overwhelming majority remains on the paper-gold (flirting) and does NOT go Physical (making love) !


Bush going to London and Powell in Brussels ! Interesting negociations will take place. Not in the least because of Euroland's initiatives on Iran and the quartet's military plans (Germany/France/Belgium/Luxemburg).

slingshotBelgian#11192011/18/03; 04:18:38

Oh, the simplicity of it all

Nobody wants gold till it soars.

I fly in the face of all reason.

Why do they want gold at $396 and not at $254?

Why do they want gold at $396 instead of $300

Why do they want gold At $396 instead of $350.

They want confirmation! For the general investors.
Where is FREE GOLD?

Now my friend let me go to the lunatic fringe.

Gold is not in Vogue! ? The trend is your friend.

Untill the the shift is made gold will trade sideways. $450 will bring into Vogue.

The values have change as you and I see It. And even if we dislike it they are major factors...


BelgianSir slingshot....#11192111/18/03; 04:38:34

Like and do appreciate you, being another conservative revolutionist ! Am on your side Sir !

But... allow me to elaborate on a misleading fundamental that imvho is doing a dis-service to our common Gold cause !

As long as goldbugs-goldadvocates take it up for paper-gold and all its derivatives, is considered as being gold-politically correct by the gold society ! WE KEEP FOOLING OURSELVES with such a perpetual, stubborn approach of the Gold matters. We simply build, on and on, the paper-gold towers, based on the complacent prémisse that OTHERS will do the Physical Gold buying FOR US, the goldpaperbugs !

The Chinese, Indians and other third worlders...must do THE goldjob, whilst we arrogantly play the so called, "smart" paper-leverage ! Than we are going to reward the one who has evidence of the newly invented paper-gold-tricks of yesterday or tomorrow. What a gigantic paradox !

Participating...and therefore supporting the papergold business is resulting in the further consolidation of Gold's containment by those same powers that the same papergold supporters, permanently despise. Shoot the price-worth of a goldmine (Tan-zanian and others) to da moon, but don't buy (accumulate) its product >>> GOLD !?

This is not only happening in the gold business, but everywhere, financials are involved. We are NOT *holders* anymore but gambling speculators that rush in an ever growing ocean of virtual derivatives ( $140 Trillion >>> $170 Trillion-BIS) !!!
The "burning" of all this paper seems remote or even impossible to most, if not all. This psychology can only remain for as long as more paper can be encouraged to reach the gigantic growing and existing pile of paper. Goldphiles should know better !

In the papergold business, there are more losers than winners ! Should we encourage those unfortunate losers to keep on losing...or should we explain why the holding of Physical Gold is WEALTH for ever and avoid that the papergold gamblers keep on losing confetti that could have been exchanged for an everlasting tangible !?

Belgian$450 POG will bring Gold in vogue... (slingshot)#11192211/18/03; 04:57:50

NO, Sir ! It will "trap" another bunch of PAPERGOLD gamblers for the umpthieth time ! Papergoldies remain the physical Gold's, canon fodder. Any POG-rush can be reversed as long as the dollar papergold market remains functioning !!! And this is exactly what all goldbugs wish for...let the papergold game stay !!! $450 ...$500...$600 POG is NOT going to change the UNFREE gold market.

Yes, FREE papergold market but UNFREE physical gold market.
What's your choice...preference, slingshot ?

In other words...if FREEGOLD is only a dream...then, what are we doing here...with throwing so much words into the wind ? Smile with me, rebel with a Gold cause.

slingshotBelgian#11192311/18/03; 05:04:26

You beat me to the punch.

slingshotBelgian#11192411/18/03; 05:25:18

When does gold go out of Vogue and meets Reality!

That is the turning point.That is when they finnaly figure out out all other assets are negative to gold bullion. Inhand and nothing else.
Free Gold is not a dream.

Let me point out. Flight out of stocks, to treasurys to bonds then real estate and the the last bastion of security Precious metals.

ProtossBelgian#11192511/18/03; 05:28:38

From your message:

"And they want to get rid as soon as possible from their excesses of confetti or digital credits and consolidate this intrinsically worthless paper into a value everlasting (everyellow) tangible !!!

Why are these smarties selling at the pace of 1 (one) tonne a day ...."

They want to get rid of worthless paper....selling 1 tonne a day; what does this mean?

From your message:

"Seventy years of " Gold-Control "...fixed goldprice...paper-opinion-goldprice...UNFREE Gold in a controlled market ! And Mister Gold wants evidence for this !?"

Sinclair has explained several times that 6 members of the Cabal are responsible for the 'short' position in gold and they alone are responsible for the short side of the 'COT numbers'. We have all wished for the bullion bankers thugs to disappear from their games and we have all wished for a free market in gold but what will wishing resolve?

Sinclair has put his money where his mouth is. This represents more than what we have done. The harm that pure hardcore 'goldbugs' demonstrate day in and day out is the reluctance to do the world any good. Their doctrine is simply and only "the way it SHOULD be". In this case its the "Seventy years of " Gold-Control "...fixed goldprice...paper-opinion-goldprice...UNFREE Gold in a controlled market !"

Come on my friend, play a new record!

I own physical and I'm sure that Sinclair does as well. Does he not own a mine, a royalty company, an entity acting in the faith of physical gold? I don't, do you?

Sinclair has been active in the gold business for 40 years, he is 'just a tad' more invloved than you or I, believe it!

Again from yours:

"Nothing,...ABSOLUTELY NOTHING, happened to those golden coins in "my" fist ! "

What? Did I see spot gold drop a bunch. I did not see the Euro yesterday but my golden coins in "my" fist did something. Apparently they are worth less dollars, buy fewer groceries, less beer, less gasoline. RELATIVE to goods and outside of dollars they shrank.

Physical gold advocates, diehard goldbugs if you will, earn there reputation as nutbars the old fashioned way, they earn it. The imagined image of an old man curled in the corner grasping his gold coins is one portrayed by many.

I own physical, you own physical and Sinclair owns physical gold. Because I might 'gamble' in gold stocks and because Sinclair 'gambles' in 'papergold' is not a reason to mock the man.

We are all aware of the shenanigans going on. Sinclair with flair that he portrays is leveraging another position, the fact that he can 'catch' the 'short' criminal at Comex.

Give me a break, Sinclair is not a bad guy and maybe, just maybe he will help liberalize the gold market.

(I will not respond to hard core, gold is God, physical only, freegold propaganda)


Paper AvalancheTHE EVENT!!!!!#11192611/18/03; 05:45:10

China just announced this morning that they are opening their physical gold markets to individuals!!!!!





Paper Avalanche

steadynews moves fast/ beliveing in ecoism will be a blast as ideas last and last.#11192711/18/03; 06:20:47

paper your quick. beat me by 6 min dang. oh by the way i think that deserves one big

BelgianWhy we will see a FREEGOLD market....!#11192811/18/03; 06:45:11

From 1971 to 1980, Gold wanted to break free from its dollar-shackles. That attempt was aborted, in concert by all those who wished to support the use of the dollar-system
for a little longer. POG calmed down and the holders of Physical Gold were tempted by the papergold-substitute-market. Up until the mid ninethies, when the (paper)goldprice came under heavy flacq. Something was happening that caused this attack on Gold ! Euroland was pregnant of a dollar-competitor ! The dollar needed "extra" support and its anti-thesis, GOLD , was used to confirm the dollar's authority.

Nobody,...NOBODY...except A/FOA made this analysis and explanation for POG's behavior of the past 10 years !
Therefore, nobody even thinks about the possibility of a coming FREEGOLD market and WHY this could be initiated by the growing force of the dollar's competitor !!!

That's WHY the euro (and its gold-concept) must be called rightout "TRASH" ! I hear this eurotrash-word almost daily !

That's WHY POG should NOT be allowed to rise beyond the compensating dollar-euro exchange rate !!! Any overshooting must be sanctioned, immediately and forcefully as to avoid any consideration of a FREEGOLD PHYSICAL MARKET, coming !

The dollar-papergold market simply promotes the general perception that the euro = trash ! Not to kill the euro currency but the Freegold concept behind it ! Freegold, the major threath for the dollar-standard's survival.
I don't know if or when FREEGOLD will happen... that's why I DON'T risk any papergold play. Amen

misetich21,600 Verizon Employees Accept Job Buyout#11192911/18/03; 06:52:22


NEW YORK, Nov. 24 -- About 21,600 employees accepted a buyout offer from Verizon Communications and will leave the payroll by the end of the week, nearly double the number that the nation's largest telephone company estimated last month.

ANOTHER sign (NOT!) of the much touted US economic recovery

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

ZhishengWhispering Winds#11193011/18/03; 07:09:31

@Gandalf, CBII, Lady W, Pizz, et al.

This half of Washington may be dryer than the other, but the winds blow, and they speak of a Spring PNW Gathering. Sounds good to me!
slingshotAlright Belgian.#11193111/18/03; 07:50:48

Half a bottle of tequila and going strong :0) just one of those nights.

On the subject of Free Gold. If a populace grows up in an
atmosphere to go into debt, how can they have any hope of survival when the debt comes home to roost. Government excepts this form of financial spending to keep the economy afloat at the expence of our younger generation. Still further its romance of high returns calls to the young who invest on whim and no due diligence has been done on any stock. and when they look at gold, the return in the past has been dismall. But the tide has turned and habits die hard. So I would conclude that the break of $400 will be harder than $300. But will be broken just the same.

GoldiloxChina GOLD#11193211/18/03; 08:15:43

The question remains, will the Chinese, as individuals, flock to gold as savings? Their government's refusal to depeg from the $$ makes their currency a tempting hold, as any future depeg could net them a large increase in value in the commodities (gold) markets.
GoldiloxMorning MIne prices#11193311/18/03; 08:26:44

Spot may be slightly anemic this morning, hung over from yesterday's ride, but NEM (44.27), GG ($16.56), and KRY (2.94) are all smoking. CAU (3.20) spiked up yesterday, even while Spot and the other miners caught their breath (or is that breadth?).

Perhaps the miners are prefacing the movements in their product once again.

AristotleProtoss,#11193411/18/03; 08:29:57

I'm sure I'm not alone in feeling both refreshed and challenged by your unique point of view. I like you. You remind me of when I was young and stupid. So let me share with you something I've learned: Mother nature will eradicate the former condition whether you work at it or not, but only through lots of open-minded effort will the later be vanquished. Life is like never-ending school. Time will pass. Will you? Looks like our class has found its latest clown. There's one in every group, right? Thank you for setting aside this special time to humiliate yourself in public. Haven't you heard the news? Sinclair is "walking on eggshells" these days. Don't you remember that bit a couple weeks ago? Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeesh. I'm not being intentially rude, he's just insignificant. It's as simple as that, but here's a deal -- I'll try being nicer if he tries being smarter. I promise.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Gandalf the WhiteNOT TO WORRY ! Lady Goldilox !!! SPOT and SPIKE are doing well too.#11193511/18/03; 08:39:35

They have a LOT of PAPER to "shred" and a lot of REARENDS to "mark" ! This takes a little time, BUT, please expect that they will be back at attacking the $400. level SOON !

GoldiloxSpot price#11193611/18/03; 08:41:45

Methinks our link to INO spot price is broken or lagging, as their current posting reflects 396.2 as our Forum page is "stuck" at 394.10.
GoldiloxSex Change#11193711/18/03; 08:42:52

Not a lady, or even female. I just like the name! No offense taken!
GoldiloxLink is now working #11193811/18/03; 08:50:19

OK, it finally updated the price. Back in June, I read a comparison of Juniors and chose CAU and KRY. These have delivered a fine ride along with the mutts! Hey Gandy, how about tethering the boys to a sled. I think they're ready for Iditarod!
Operative@ Gandalf/Spot/Spike#11193911/18/03; 08:50:44

Just look at what those critters of yours are doing to the paper this morning. Shredding paper indeed!

(Smile, Good Dog!)

GoldiloxPaper Shredding#11194011/18/03; 08:57:14

Damn, at this rate, I better find a checking account demoninated in Gold. Never mind. I'm not giving up my stash that easily!
slingshotGoldilox#11194111/18/03; 09:08:32

Sir Goldilox. Welcome to the Table Round.

Gandalf the WhiteGoldheart Goldilox !!!#11194211/18/03; 09:08:45

PHYSICAL gold is the ONLY checking account that the Hobbits have ! Ask Sir Ari about that type of STANDARD !
HOW low can the US$ go ? ----- VERY LOW !!!

R PowellAristotle#11194311/18/03; 09:26:46

I see from your reply (111934) to Protoss that you haven't lost your usual diplomatic manner. I haven't read that to which you were responding, but that is not the issue.

Perhaps in the future we will all be lucky enough to become as smart and knowledgeable as yourself, if, as you say, we work hard enough. Then you'll no longer have to be irritated by anyone who happens to hold a different view than that of youself. Sheeesh...Aristotle...where do these guys come from that dare to speak such blasphemy?

POG +5.00
POS + 10.3

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DruidR Powell (11/18/03; 09:26:46MT - msg#: 111943)#11194511/18/03; 09:46:26

"(I will not respond to hard core, gold is God, physical only, freegold propaganda)"

Druid: If you are going to take a "swing" be prepared to duck, move to the side, or take it. Learning and wisdom sometimes takes unconventional routes and take many forms.

slingshot(No Subject)#11194611/18/03; 09:50:55

Just when you think the bum has gone to sleep!


Dollar 90,69
Gold $395.9

Give me $400.00 today


CoBra(too)The Global Containment of the USA#11194711/18/03; 09:51:42

...was "The Privateer's" latest bi-weekly, which I've just read in an effusive challenge to catch up on my most important reading chores of three weeks worth. An impossible chore.

He feels the geo-political and geo-strategical balance is shifting from a one-polar US hegemonial, imperial world to new alliances. These are starting in EU space GPS system Galileo, where China signed an agreement to participate. India has also documented its interest and so did Russia as a link between these upcoming powers. Imagine 3 billion people forming sort of an eco-political-startegic alliance.

As Othmar Issing went to London earlier in the month to deliver his predominantly political speech, ending with: "The US Trade Deficit is not for Europe to solve!" -
the post Bretton Woods transatlantic monetary cooperation was over.

From here on the US and the Dollar Hegemony are on its own. Japan may grudgingly keep up the pretense for a while longer, though in reality the game's over.

I guess A/FOA have envisioned this scenario early on. Wherever, these two true friends of gold have disappeared to, I would like to thank them today as their visions are becoming true. As MK says, he's only putting up the venue for discussion is too modest as his own writings are proving his candor and deep insight.

Personally, I feel blessed to have stumbled on this site early on. As Ari says, got gold? Thanks to all - cb2

adminNews & Views#11194811/18/03; 09:54:38


Breaking News!

You are invited to visit now, often. Updated regularly. Stay abreast the gold market via News & Views, this forum and Jon Warner's Afternoon Gold Market Reports.

Wizardrous One, put up a nice looking 3-Day Chart just for you to admire.

R PowellAristotle // Protoss#11194911/18/03; 10:06:09

Now I have caught up and have read Protess' opinion. I don't see anything there that I violently disagree with, nor do I see exactly what so ruffled Aristotle's feathers other than some mention of paper trading. Oh, the dreaded paper trading. What would modern civilization be like if it were abolished? The image of medieval Europe before the rebirth of commerce comes to mind. Subsistence living. Wonderful times!

As for Sinclair, he presents some not-so-subtle opinions as an analyst and investor. I find him both entertaining, sometimes informative and interesting. He has an interest ($$) in what transpires in the gold market. Some are financially connected to that which they talk about, some are not.

Therefore the disclaimer should be read and we should remember that there is a very valid reason for its requirement.

Disclosure: I hold both physical silver and paper precious metals' positions. (;>

slingshotCobra II#11195011/18/03; 10:10:31

Yes, I am looking for Another and FOA.

In to the great wide open
Under a sky of blue
Out in the wide open
A rebel without a clue.


R PowellDruid#11195111/18/03; 10:11:50

Hey, get your facts straight !!!!!

You address a message to me and then include in quotes some words that I did NOT say....

"(I will not respond to hard core, gold is God, physical only, freegold propaganda)"


There is enough misinformation and other BS in the commodities markets-- more in gold than any other, by far!
We don't need your incompetence in assigning quoted to the wrong source!!

a nation of onegot gold?#11195211/18/03; 10:13:18

If, during this nine-month bear market rally, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average were forming a rounded top, this
is what the first half of it would look like.

GoldiloxPaper trading#11195311/18/03; 10:13:24

CNBC announced today that there are 7 IPOs and 26 secondaries offered this week. Anyone want some watered down paper assets?

Let's see, 35:1 PEs watered down by secondaries, should move us even closer to infinite PEs. Is this market flatulence, or what? They've evolved the junk bond dumping into junk stock dumping. How special!

Operative@ admin#11195411/18/03; 10:13:38

Love that "News & Views" link. Many Thanks!
Would like to make a change to the cartoon by Ed Stein shown at the bottom of the News & Views page. Replace Iraq writing on side of downed helo with Wall St. Replace Bush with Greenspan as co-pilot. Brings another golden smile to my face this morning.

a nation of one.#11195511/18/03; 10:16:11

What is the name of that toy that walks down the stairs?
GoldiloxRounded Dow?#11195611/18/03; 10:17:07

@ A Nation of One:

But it clearly hasn't crossed the 50 MA yet!
chortle chortle snort snort!

Paper AvalancheTelegraphing their own demise.....#11195711/18/03; 10:22:51

I believe that the brevity of success resulting from the efforts of the anti-gold crowd yesterday and today (taking POG from 399 to 386 and now back to 397 in less than 24 hours) is more indicative of their LACK OF control rather than OF their control.

Like holding a basketball under water in the deep end of the pool.


GoldiloxPaper training#11195811/18/03; 10:23:49

As an animal owner and lover, it's good to see that Gandy's mutts are so well 'paper-trained". Any puppy knows what paper is good for. We should be so visionary!

Good Dogs!

Gandalf the WhiteYES, SIR M. K. --- Watching and enjoying every TICK ! #11195911/18/03; 10:25:10

Breaking News!
Wizardrous One, put up a nice looking 3-Day Chart just for you to admire.
THANK YOU !, Sir M.K. --- and INDEED I am admiring the job that SPOT and SPIKE are doing ! Looks to these ol'e eyes that the $400. level is going to be SMASHED this week !
Especially, as the US$ has broken though the bottom 91.0 level !!!
BUT, wait a minute, !!! I have to turn on CNBC and see if the music is still playing ! NAW ---
Tis going to be a THANKFUL Thanksgiving season soon too.
Keep those GOLDEN UPDATES coming !

GoldiloxBasketball analogy#11196011/18/03; 10:27:46

@ Paper Av:

The difficulty of holding the ball underwater is directly proportional to the amount of hot air inflating the ball!

slingshot(No Subject)#11196111/18/03; 10:34:51

No, It is proportional to the water it displaces.

GoldiloxBack and Fill#11196211/18/03; 10:35:06

I have a friend who is bullish on the QQQs and calls every down day "back and fill". I am more of the opinion that every up day is "dump and dodge". Looks like today's D&D is ending as both indeces have turned red.

Euro:$$ now at 1.184 and rising.
Yen at 108.14

steadytoy stair walker. slinky. #11196311/18/03; 10:42:58

thats the name slinky
Gandalf the WhiteSir Slingshot --- A Question !#11196411/18/03; 10:45:13

IF yesterday Gold was "HAMMERED", what do you call it that has happened to the US$ TODAY ? (Please see chart at LINK!)

CoBra(too)AG - The Man Who cant see - Bubbles!#11196511/18/03; 10:49:28

... Of his own making!

"Rubbish!" says Dr. Richebächer. "The bubble was as apparent to everybody as the emperor without clothes. The only thing needed to see and say the obvious was integrity and honesty among policymakers and economists."

... and he even can't, or won't tell you what a dollar is!

Rubbish, says cb2

slingshotGandalf the White#11196611/18/03; 11:09:39

Always ready to give you an honest answer.(bow)

The U.S. Dollar weakened to 90.60. A signal gold to go higher. I am not concerned if Gold retraces $10- $15 dollars. Even Fifty dollars. I am a Die Hard Goldbug with an exit strategy. I have run the ramp to $254 and back up.

Let the dollar do what it wants to do. I watch it closely.


Paper AvalancheFutures vs. Spot and Gold Lease Rates#11196711/18/03; 11:13:21

I may be off here due to time delays between prices on various web sites, but I believe that I am correct that in the past ten minutes the spot price of gold was $397.70 and the futures price of gold was $396.80. Physical being priced higher than paper.

Is IT (the separation of physical from paper) starting?

I also just checked out the lease rates for gold and they spiked in the past 24 hours (as best I am able to determine) from 0.4% to 1.5%.

Tick tock.


ZhishengInteresting close.#11196811/18/03; 11:13:50

Gold is up $6.20 on the day and the shorts seem to be doing their best to keep the $6 lid on the pot.

But the pressure inside is nearing 400...

ZhishengUp into the Close.#11196911/18/03; 11:30:46

But the lid is still on the pressure cooker (up $5.80 on the day).
Gandalf the WhiteSir Slingshot --- OK -- now read the Question AGAIN ! --- ROFL !!#11197011/18/03; 11:32:45

Sir Slingshot --- A Question !
IF yesterday Gold was "HAMMERED", what do you call it that has happened to the US$ TODAY ?
THE ANSWER was ====>

GoldiloxDollar event descriptioon#11197111/18/03; 11:34:08


See post # 111958 for my personal description of the activity in the $paper market.

Completely unqualified technical analysis, of course.

a nation of oneto Goldilox (11/18/03; 10:17:07MT - msg#: 111956)#11197211/18/03; 11:38:10

Of course you know a lot about bears. So tell me, is this
the mama bear, the papa bear, or the baby bear?

slingshotGandalf#11197311/18/03; 11:48:38

Shredded! Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Did not see the forest through the trees.

specie-manGoldilox: China Gold#11197411/18/03; 11:57:09

Goldilox wrote:
The question remains, will the Chinese, as individuals, flock to gold as savings? Their government's refusal to depeg from the $$ makes their currency a tempting hold, as any future depeg could net them a large increase in value in the commodities (gold) markets.

It is possible that a future de-peg of the Chinese currency might actually result in a lower dollar, not a higher Yuan.
Chinese banks have a large non-performing debt problem, and the Chinese government is not about to make that worse with a stronger currency (in my opinion, of course). If anything, they may need to "monetize" a lot of that debt (print Yuan "out of thin air").

Mr GreshamPaper#11197511/18/03; 12:00:11

Must be some combination of moves up/down/sideways, hope & elation, despondency and depression, stubbornness and skittishness, that swings our moods in these cycles.

I admit to flagellating myself these past days over lack of early placement in gold (& silver) shares. I've watched some 3 & 4-baggers pass me by. These have clearly outperformed physical, and could be cashed in now for a position of greater advantage.

(I don't hear any paper players advocating these gambles for others, or even as the major part of their own portfolios. This is wise, IMO, at this stage of things. I think all know that these "markets" may be put-up jobs, with an expiration date nearing. Risk management skills should govern their commitment levels, given this possibility. I haven't heard what sounded like anything but honest descriptions of personal experiences in these.)

I wish I had not taken our A/FOA-inspired pro-physical position so strenuously as confirmation -- yes, confirmation -- of my own early (1998+) suspicion of the paper/fiat/dollar/banking system. Meaning: I was already at that point when I came here, and was unlikely to participate in those multi-baggers on my own, anyway. Perhaps a different locale would have influenced me differently. 20-20 hindsight and all that. But it is MY RESPONSIBILITY for the views I have held, the lessons I have learned, and the choices I have made.

And -- they are working out well. Could have been better, but -- No Sleep Lost here.

Nothing to chew anyone else out for. I congratulate them their successes -- in the shares, the futures, the options. We are all moving forward. Color me a tad green boys, and Godspeed to us all. ;)

Make sure your cannons are pointed in the right direction, you little dogs, you. I think I'll just watch...

Gandalf the WhiteOOPS !!! where are the ESF and Dr. (SIR) Greenspan when one really needs them ?#11197611/18/03; 12:04:04

HELP --- the bottom just fell out aGAIN !!
What IS the next support level for the US$ ?
Does anyone know ?
More people will find out how much WIEGHT their Green will buy ! Right, Sir Ari ?

GoldiloxBears and porridge#11197711/18/03; 12:06:22

@A Nation of One:

NASDAQ is in Papa Bear territory - Porridge is too hot!
DJIND is in Mama Bear - too cold!
Gold is in the Baby Bear phase - growing up fast and ahhhh - just right!

GoldiloxChina Peg#11197811/18/03; 12:10:53

@ SpecieMan:

The Chinese could very likely "print" their way out of the inequality, as they are no more above greed than anyone else. Simplistically, a lower dollar means cheaper gold for them and every other non-$ holder, and this is to what I was refering. Chinese individuals may be well aware of this potential.

SundeckCB2 #111947 - USAGOLD Forever!#11197911/18/03; 12:13:10

Just want to concur with you on the value of this site, the generosity and perceptiveness of our host and the value of the many postings...


GoldiloxBeef#11198011/18/03; 12:36:04

According to CNBC, USDA is reporting beef prices up 66% in the last year. Of course, this is excluded from CPI calculations as "too volatile!"

NASDAQ is retesting the 50 MA at 1897. Seven out of eight down days? Not looking good for paper markets.

Sinatra -

"Start shreddin' the NAS,
We're leavin' today.
I want to be apart from it . . .in old New York."

I've heard the expected response before, but my day job already quit on me, so I can't help it.

USAGOLD Daily Market ReportPage Update!#11198111/18/03; 12:56:56">
The Afternoon Gold Report by Jon H. Warner has been updated.

If you are considering investments in gold we invite you to">request our free introductory information packet detailing the products and services offered by USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We welcome your inquiry and look forward to working with you.

Nice recovery in the precious metals while equities indices plunged again. Meanwhile the CRB index hits new highs on higher precious metals, base metals, hydrocarbon products, and food stuffs. Those with PM "portfolio insurance" should be relieved - to bad for the "uninsured".

Jon H. Warner

Mr GreshamVia Dollaroso#11198211/18/03; 13:28:16

Are we heading for an "event"? (Any Wizards about?)

It'll look like this, anyway, whenever it does happen.

Those recent POG/POS moves up & down & up again do NOT look like the "free" market choices of millions of small investors weighing their choices among a universe of financial options. Who has WEIGHT like that?

They look like the participation/withdrawal/overwhelming of a few large sellers, and possibly the entry of a few large buyers.

I remember reading earlier this year the account of the London Gold Pool years. They even got the USSR to step up gold sales at one point; they were in a crop disaster in 1968 or something like it and needed $$$ for imports. That bought them more time.

But when it ended, 35 up to 800, with only one major retrace, I think it was. And that was USTreasury jumping in again (?). Why is this likely to be anything different?

I mean, you could have made all the commentary, and theorizing, and bringing in events and players and politician's speeches etc etc over those many years -- if you'd had websites like this then -- and it wouldn't have made a price move until: They gave up holding the line at the LGP. Right?

There are probably lurkers who've come to this conclusion long ago. Consider our daily commentary mildly interesting but not crucial to the final outcome. In the end, the whole ball of yarn might untangle to a much simpler story?

Is the Chinese market opening comparable to letting US citizens back in, in 1976? (Is that a freight train I hear stoking its engines on the far side of the railyard?) I wonder why the Japanese haven't taken up more?

Melting PotDollar Tumbles as International Investors Flee U.S. Assets #11198311/18/03; 13:45:08

Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar had its biggest decline against the euro in about a month in New York trading after a government report showed net foreign purchases of U.S. securities in September fell to the lowest in five years.

A drop in the amount of stocks and bonds bought by international investors makes it harder for the U.S. to finance the deficit in its current account, the broadest measure of trade and investment. The Treasury Department said foreigners bought a net $4.19 billion in September, down from $49.9 billion in August and the smallest since $1.17 billion in September 1998.

``It's the hardest evidence yet the U.S. current account deficit has finally become unsustainable and the foreign appetite for U.S. securities has finally fallen short,'' said Michael Woolfolk, a currency strategist at the Bank of New York, the third-largest New York-based bank. There is ``a dependence on increasing inflows just to keep the dollar steady.''

Papers on fire as "M" class of monetary aggregates decline in earnest as foreign repatriation begins. This is basic no-brainer....get gold b4 it's to late!

GoldiloxVia Dollaroso#11198411/18/03; 13:47:03

@Mr. Gresham:

Perhaps it it a freight train we hear, but as we have witnessed, many cannot differentiate the light at the end of the tunnel from an oncoming train!

Cavan ManMr. Gresham#11198511/18/03; 14:47:43

I still hold fast to the Gold Trail lessons. Have had the same results--good but not great.

Great day in the jrs. today as I hold those that have lagged that sector's (where is he?) advance. I am buying more physical @ these levels--well above my avg. of much less than 300.

GATA and FOA/A are twin sons of different mothers (what was the title of that old album?). Iceberg dead ahead; distance and time till impact still uncertain.

Solomon WeaverMr. Gresham and the mood of paper#11198611/18/03; 14:57:44

Mr. Gresham

I just had a quiet moment in my day and came by to look.

I noticed your comments on how you feel you missed out on the big moves in PM miners.

I might point out to you that along with the physical materials as a core, I took a big IRA position in a first rate gold company (real glad I didn't choose Barrick then, as when I made that buy I didn't understand hedging).

Well I must remind you, in the times when gold was near $250, those shares were down terribly.

There are always those "what if" or "if you had" analysts who like the dramatic of describing how well you would have done if you had got in at the bottom.....the thing they never seem to say is that after a 66% fall in something you own (like a 1998 gold stock buy), you need a 300% gain just to get back to where you started.

Fortunately for me, having watched silver closely, I had the forsight to pick up some silver miners when silver was near $, there I could say I have paper gains.

Since both of these companies have been most of the assets in my IRA, you would be seasick looking at the ups and downs of my monthly statement.

Mr. Gresham, I think you and I have a longstanding friendship here...both interested in silver as well. In my core physical position have been buy and hold all these years with you....and I think in the end, we have both done quite well. And in hindsight, if there had been a way to really have physical in an IRA, I think I would have been in the exact same position you are, which is still a very good one.

One last little note.

I am not really a conspiracy theorist.....but I have this little pain in my tummy that warns me about certain potential risks in mining stocks related to governments.

As long as miners (and I include base metal here) are primarily in low grade low profit capital intensive businesses digging up "raw materials" for the global economy, governments treat them like any other company. But, when the day comes (in silver and gold) where the same companies suddenly get prices for their metals that give them the kind of net margins that Bill Gates is used to, I fear a backlash from governments. Noboby seemed to mind when Bill Gates caught up with Warren Buffet....but let's wait and see if Pierre Lasonde is glorified like Michael Dell when his company makes the front pages of Time and Newsweek and Fortune (all in the same week).

Poor old Solomon

CoBra(too)A day for laggards and a day for gold!#11198711/18/03; 15:13:27

Holding the laggards @ CM - May it be that the management felt so sure about the ultimate value that they didn't feel compelled to tout, sorry promote?

Been there is and always will, sound DD being a lot better than (un-)safe and sorry.

... and today was laggard day! Hurray! Though, as Bill Bonner says, you rarely get what you want, mostly it's what you deserve! And then even that is unsure in the final reckoning.

... So we're back up attacking the US$ POG at 400 again. A mere 2 bucks missing - and as Albert Einstein figures it's just a matter of relativity.

Cb2 figures the only matter is GOLD and concludes that the $ is neither matter, nor will it matter in the future to price any matter in hedonic confetti (Sorry, Belgian, as confetti at least is paper matter). Guess, that's the general idea anyway - Oh, and yes let's have the POG being the arbiter of price for anything that matters and not it's (former) derivatives, nor its assumed substitute(s)!

(Not) trying (hard enough) to be funny ... cb2

R PowellNumbers#11198811/18/03; 15:36:28

XAU 104.64 +4.62
HUI 235.22 +13.36

Wow! Whether you see these as lagging, leading or moving along with metals' prices indicators doesn't really matter to much. Can these move up at their recent torrid rate without the POG and POS (some of the companies in these indexes are silver producers) shooting up? I had thought that these numbers had gotten ahead of the metal prices over the last few weeks but now.....?

I've been wondering about the $400 level for some time. It's only one dollar higher than 399 and one dollar lower than 401 but it's a POG that starts with 4.

My opinion (based on almost no tangible information) now is that the longer the POG takes to close above 400, the less likely it is to hang around the 400 level afterward. I'm guessing that buy stops are building in quantity just above that magic 400. Will it break through and run right up, opening a new range of greater daily moves (both up and down!)? POG at 460 will take a much greater downmove to shake out the weak longs than it took to scare them out at 360. This is going to be such great fun!
P.S. Can the POG move much higher without awakening little sister silver? I think no.

Goldilox; 15:36:39

Here we go again GCZ30 (Dec Gold) is back above $399 at $399.1! You can't keep a good dog down!
Goldilox$400 psychological level#11199011/18/03; 15:40:24

@ Rich:

I remember when BMW introduced the M5, the chief engineer said the same thing about psychological numbers. He just couldn't release the BHP numbers on the car until they started with a "4".

Cavan ManOn LAGGARDS........#11199111/18/03; 16:11:59

(Hello CB2)

Love 'em; buying more. Also, Argentine real estate (proxies thereof) suffice nicely. Great day for the Irish but holding the line as the advance proceeds to higher ground!

Here's looking up your kilt...Best...CM

Melting PotINO updates out of order#11199211/18/03; 16:35:38

Spot Gold $398.80

Dollar drifting lower .9023

$400+ tonight in after market??? :)

misetichReality Check: US Trucking Execs See A Mixed Business Upturn#11199311/18/03; 16:40:24


Bob Costello, chief economist for the American Trucking Association
(ATA),.....................He characterizes this recovery as "decent but slow." Year to date,
ATA's tonnage index is up 3% through September. "If you compare that to
the historical average from 1985 to the present, the average industry
growth rate was six percent. We're at half that right now."

But if you compare the index to the last few years, "it's better
than contraction." September saw a 4.2 % increase, which was among the
better results this year, and average revenue per mile seems to be on an
uptrend, Costello said.

I think inventories are just very, very lean -- and I got to believe at some point that manufacturers are going to have to start rebuilding them from very low levels. When they do, motor carriers that haul those goods are finally going to see better days."


The hope is on manufacturers (what's left of them in the US) to crank up and build up inventory levels and thus establish a positive cycle etc etc.

Unfortunately jobs are not being created, and wages are not being increased, and in some cases employer paid benefits are being cut. The "refinancing game" has come to a screeching halt, and tax rebates have run their course in the 3rd qtr and part of the 4th.

The perception of an "improving economy" is an illusion since overcapacity and underutilization are still in abundance

The paper bulls are "in" for a disappointing turn once the "good news" 4th qtr is out of the way and 2004 gets under way

As the SM resumes its downward trend foreigners will suffer additional portfolios losses -

In addition these same foreigners would be discouraged to invest in an overvalued US economy and overvalued currency US $

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

misetichTexas oil lobbyist nominated as new US ambassador to Saudi Arabia#11199411/18/03; 16:50:09


United States President George W. Bush has selected a prominent Texas oil industry lobbyist with close ties to the Bush family to become the new US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, the White House announced Monday.

The nominee, James Oberwetter, currently serves as senior vice president of governmental and political affairs for Hunt Oil Company and is also a member of the general committee on communications of the American Petroleum Institute (API), the main oil industry lobby in Washington.


All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

CoBra(too)@CM - Laggards#11199511/18/03; 16:50:46

... Are you hiding an oaken barrel of Bushmills "undr thot Kilt of yor's", pray? Just save enough for a hot toddy for me - that's really mat(t)erial to our physical (as well as mental)health, ain't 't?

... and as laggards go - when they go ... they might even fly as tired old turkeys do before Thanksgiving.

Have a great one and don't forget: It's to the moon, Alice! ... and soon - cb2

GoldiloxTreasury numbers#11199611/18/03; 16:58:55

A 90% drop in foreign investment in US Treasuries seems HUGE to me, although I am not well versed in the normal fluctuations in this market.

Does any other knight or lady have a better feel for the historical delta here? Might this be STRONG evidence of flight to alternative (offshore?) investment.

SteveHYou all awake?#11199711/18/03; 17:04:14

Seems like it (gold) is about to break/hit/capture $400.00. Only $.70 away as we speak.


cyberbatWe have lift off!!#11199811/18/03; 17:08:08

Hang on to your creditials everyone. There may be a slight jolt as we cross the $400.00 barrier, looking straight down on the great Barrier Islands in Aussieland!!
cyberbatWhoops!#11199911/18/03; 17:16:48

Meant to say the great "Barrier Reef" not islands.
steady)#11200011/18/03; 17:20:00

i read an editorial about america leading the world in imprisoning its citizens and i only have one question.....

whats the problem?
As far as im concerned, the USA would be in alot better shape if evn more of its citzens where behind bars.

just look at the criminal activity that is allowed to run nilly-willy in the streets of america., corporate fraud, mutual fund fraud, jaywalking, spitting on sidewalks, and speeding- and tell me the dirt bags responsible for this desreve to walk the streets with law abiding citizens. No way!

A lil order and discipline would go along way towards returning this country to the principles upon which it was founded.

sincerly Joseph Stalin.

TEXPre-33's Premiums#11200111/18/03; 17:20:57

This may be bad timing for a response as we get close to breaking the $400 level but........can anyone explain how the "premium" aspect of pre-1933 coins work? I figure the coins have a meltdown value that corresponds to the spot price of gold but is there an added value based upon the fact that the coin(s) are pre-1933?
GoldCoaster(No Subject)#11200211/18/03; 17:26:36

Here we go again.Gold is at 399.25 Bid and 400 Ask on my screen,last sale 399.
GoldiloxPre-'33 Premium#11200311/18/03; 17:28:26


Any of MK's fine staff of Knights and Ladies should be able to help you with that question, but it's basically the difference between bullion and collector coins. As I am sure they will warn you also, watch out for unscrupulous types who place that differential TOO high for buyers and too low for sellers.

BoilermakerI'll be late tonight honey#11200411/18/03; 17:31:33

NY ICAP Brokers Arrested in Forex Case

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Three brokers at the inter-dealer brokerage ICAP (IAP.L) were arrested in New York on Tuesday in a case relating to the foreign exchange market, according to a source familiar with the matter.

U.S. federal officials were in the process of arresting 48 people in connection with a foreign currency trading probe, the FBI (news - web sites) said.

Gee! Another bunch with bad luck. I'm curious what they were doing. One of these sweeps is going to get someone who knows and wants to tell where all the skeletons are.


misetichForeign investors exit U.S. stocks#11200511/18/03; 17:33:01,1,2585963.column?coll=chi-business-hed


News that non-U.S. investors had sold a net $6.3 billion of U.S. stocks in September spooked the market. Analysts had expected that the gain recorded in August, which had $11.5 billion of net purchases, would continue.

Another surprise was today's decision by the Bush administration to limit apparel imports from China.

The so called WallStreet experts had expected an upward number in stocks net purchases - They were "a little off the mark"

WallStreet and the Feds have kept up their mandra that trade and capital deficit don't matter -

Time will tell if it does

The retaliatory move against China is counterproductive and isolationist - and protectionist -

US and US economy needs more friends than enemies

How will China react? What "weapons" do they have at their disposal?

All Aboard The Gold Bull Express

TEXGoldilox -pre 33#11200611/18/03; 17:38:52

Actually, I have purchased all of my gold from George at USA GOLD. It has been so long since I purchased the coins (yes, I got em when gold was between $250 and $290 and ounce), I forgot about how the premium thing worked. George did expalin it at the time but hey, I'm getting old and sort of forgot. Also, I hate to bother anyone at USA GOLD for a question right now as they are probably pretty busy! the premium directly related to the age of the coin as well as condition and what kind of coin (like French Roosters)?
Thanks for the input.

Cavan ManLooking back......#11200711/18/03; 17:39:32

On 5-13-99 I purchased 100 French Roosters from Mike Kosares. I thought (at times) I'd never see $400 (some days $300). Now, there it is. Steady as she goes lads...CM
Paper AvalancheAnd there it is...#11200811/18/03; 17:45:04



GoldiloxChina's Weapons#11200911/18/03; 17:46:09

@ Misetich:

One of the Weapons at China's disposal is a huge wad of green toilet tissue to stop up the plumbing whenever they wish. If they substantially increase their PM holdings, $433POG will be but an eye blink, and the Dx will look like Tiger Woods with 6 or 8 birdies on 18 holes.

Let's see, net -$44B in T's and -$6B in stocks. I'd say the birdies may be flewing the cookoo's nest! Shades of Ken Keesey.

I can hear Snowman and GS now. "Nurse, nurse, my medication!"

Carl H400 YEEE HAAAA!!!!#11201011/18/03; 17:47:45

The only thing that would make me happier is to see a few members of the PPT in handcuffs...
GoldiloxAhoy $400#11201111/18/03; 17:47:53

While I was admiring my comedic rantings, lo and behold! Hang on for a WILD ride!!
GoldiloxPre-33 premiums#11201211/18/03; 17:51:24

@ Tex:

I've already exhausted my limited knowledge, so before I have to eat my words, I will defer to the professionals. Don't worry, they will be happy to hear from an old friend.

cyberbatfrom the good ship cyberbat#11201311/18/03; 17:51:30

Now hear this. $400.00 has now been breached. All hands on deck to man battle stations. Their going to try to blow us out of the water.
Goldbug 1At last!#11201411/18/03; 17:52:50

Fur Face is pleased to report that gold has hit the $400 mark. Expecting double Roo tonight.
CoBra(too)Gold 400#11201511/18/03; 17:56:06

Launching pad - as on a clear day you can see forever ... cb2
GoldiloxFur Face and Roo#11201611/18/03; 17:58:26


Speaking of double portions of roo, I found a 2 Oz Roo nugget in a coin shop last summer and adopted it as my good luck piece. It's so big and pretty! Spoil Fur Face for me, too.

Black BladeGold at $400#11201711/18/03; 18:02:28

Now let's see if it holds and bumps higher or if the weaklings bail. Still could get "interesting" as the US dollar plunge is inevitable.

- Black Blade

Off to the gym!

cyberbatCamel's nose under the tent#11201811/18/03; 18:04:40

We all may want to follow that New York arrest of currency traders. That is always the first sector that banana republics go after when they are inflating their own currency. I would not be surprised at all to see the ppt cease operations temporarily in currencies till they can figure out what to do next.
Jim Sinclair said that those are exactly the people who are making gold rise unabated by buying the euro; and the Euro is dragging gold upwards.
That news snip needs to be followed closely to see if there is any spin to it.

GoldiloxSecurities Shenanigans#11201911/18/03; 18:16:18

Now that DLJ has been split up and sold to CSFB and TD Waterhouse, SEC's Donaldson can whine publicly about the sad state of morals in the securities industry. But of course, as founder and CEO of a brokerage, he's never before heard of such vile practices!
a nation of onepog 400#11202011/18/03; 18:23:41

It's not ambiguous this time.

I will tell you what I'm thinking, and you can judge its
value. The chart at the link has a number of notable
qualities. The configuration of the most recent day's
trading, in several ways, seems to me to be strongly
indicative of additional further movement higher. My
suspicions, whether accurate or not, are that the power of
selling interests has increased somewhat, and I think that
this is shown in the chart. This might mean that once a
substantial additional high is reached, and if at that
time buyers are relatively exhausted, more or less,
significant selling might occur. I'm an amatuer, remember.
But I am a very avid one. And my money is where my mouth
is. Some types of things are more easily discovered by
amatuers than by those already having an establised
outlook. Barring unforeseen events that might influence
pog otherwise, I think it is most likely that gold will go
significantly higher, then slow, rather than much higher,
although that could happen instead. An event might make it
go much higher, but that doesn't seem like a good bet,
judging from what is certain right now, even though such
an event could be waiting in the wings for just this kind
of situation. Complex, but not necessarily false. I know
that markets have a way of proving that no one can predict
what they will do. But certain human behaviors can be
expected with a reasonable degree of accuracy, and, since
pog is, strictly speaking, one aspect of human behavior,
these aspects of its actions, when all factors are known
(and that is a big caveat), should also be expectable.
That's why I do this. It's a process of learning that I
have found sometimes works exceptionally well, not just in
markets but in life generally, even though I do fall on my
face a lot in the beginning sometimes. My point is,
though, that there seems to be a sound basis for thinking it will go higher, rather than fall significantly from
here. By significant, I mean forty points or thereabouts
within the next several days, or the effective beginning
of such a move.

a nation of onethe link#11202111/18/03; 18:25:18

It might take half a minute for the chart to load.
ProtossLife's surprises#11202211/18/03; 18:26:55

Isn't it quaint how an unintended message falls right into the lap of it's intended audience!

I guess what's worse than being "young and stupid" is being old and stupid.

In the beginning, when gold was $250/oz., I was able to accumulate an onze per month on my paltry salary. Each year of the past 3 years (for arithmetic's sake) I would have been able to gather 36 oz's for my hard efforts. Thirty-six beautiful, solid '999' pieces of immeasurable gold!

Instead......I sank the $250 into shares of a non-hedged miner whom as history well documents, is leveraged in the order of 3:1 to 5:1 to the price of physical. As profits presented themselves in an accelerated form, 1/3 was sold off in good times for more physical gems. Another $250 went in, more than 1 onze came out, month after month, year after year.

During a recent reconciliation of the 'golden books', it was quite to my surprise that I had over 60 onzes of '999', a healthy stash of silver and still, still a couple grand in (oh my lord!) gold miners! There is a little cash for ...for.... an option to buy silver in 2010 or.....a good old fashioned 2 day drunk with the buddies at the track.... or any other disgusting absurdity not related to pure hard-headed yellow metal.

How in the accounting gods could I have purchased 60 oz.'s of gold with my $250 per month. It was a miracle! It IS a miracle!

Now I wait, older and grumpier (more stupid for sure!) with my accumulation of wealth waiting for the world to turn into a pumpkin. C'est vrai! C'est domage.

There is an old saying for the old folks. It's not how much gold you have when you check out, it's how many toys you have.

All gold and no toys makes 'GOLDBUG' a dull boy.

P.S.: Thanks R.Powell for the 'latitude' today.

Cavan ManWest of LA....#11202311/18/03; 18:54:46

Asian Stocks Slump, Led by Canon, BHP, Samsung Electronics
Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks slumped, led by exporters such as Canon Inc. and BHP Billiton, after the dollar slid against the yen and the Australian currency, threatening to cut the value of overseas sales.

``Investors are prompted to get rid of exporters'' because of currency gains in Asia, said Atsushi Osa, who helps manage $110 billion in assets as a fund manager at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 1.8 percent to 9719.79 as of 9:55 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.2 percent. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia Pacific Index, which tracks more than 800 companies in the region, fell 0.9 percent.

Cavan ManCheers Protoss#11202411/18/03; 18:59:56

I've been in the "lists" (when not in the "cups") with Aristotle myself. Never have I lost my mount. One cannot debate where there is no respect for Another viewpoint.

I'm so happy to be so stupid. Best....CM

Cavan ManMore Investment Advisors.....#11202511/18/03; 19:22:55

(making the news)

Federal law enforcement officers raid offices in foreign exchange scandal

Associated Press Writer

November 18, 2003, 7:39 PM EST

NEW YORK -- Federal law enforcement officers began arresting several dozen people suspected of foreign currency trading crimes in a crackdown on a largely unregulated facet of business finance, sources said Tuesday.

Speaking to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity, two government sources confirmed that raids were aimed at arresting those named in court papers filed under seal in U.S. District Court in Manhattan.

One source said the crimes were committed as investors were cheated by individuals who claimed to be making foreign exchange trades when they were not. The trades were worth millions of dollars, the sources said.

The alleged crimes could be carried out virtually anywhere because the foreign exchange market is a largely unregulated one, one of the sources said.

At least 10 arrests had taken place during a raid at a downtown Manhattan office building, although other arrests were expected in other areas of the East, one source said.

Cavan ManBuy Physical