USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

Electronic reproduction sourced from
BelgianFREE GOLD#10065904/01/03; 00:05:18

@ timbervision : A true physical goldmarket will create the opportunity for every currency-holder/user, to evaluate his currency against Gold. All currencies will be judged against Gold (the neutral evolving arbiter) and therefor compete with each other on a total different basis. A real Free competition instead of a competition dominated by only one, all-embracing, hegemonist dollar-reserve.

The ECB's marking to market of its goldreserves creates a unique reserve benefit, not used in the old goldstandard. The euro will never be officially *backed* with gold. But by allowing a new "free" market in physical gold (not paper), the euro currency operations are supplemented.

But don't forget that modern trade requires a digital currency. If gold can trade (freely) beside paper money, neither will drive the other out of circulation, as long as they (currencies) can each seek their own real values.

The above simply makes it clear that a free goldmarket initiative (agreement) will NOT come from the dollar-reserve side !!! The upcoming, competing euro, wishes to introduce this new concept as a replacement for the past bad and unworkable (untenable) goldmanagement.

One day the dollar-reserve will accept this as a "good" idea and political will to introduce the concept will be ready to let it go.

@ Free Willy : Go to the "Forum Hall of Fame" and meet some Giant posters overthere. Happy reading.

@ Kev : About the *Nationale Bank van Belgie* saga :
Isn't it remarkable how they (NBB) succeed in completely hiding the Goldreserve-affairs (commitments), for everyone, public shareholders included. All blahblah is permitted as long as you don't talk about Gold ! Have you any further news about the BIS-shares-affair ?

Black BladeJapan MOF To Issue Y17.8 Trillion Of Financing Bills In April#1006604/1/03; 00:18:10


TOKYO -(Dow Jones)- Japan's Ministry of Finance plans to issue around Y17.8 trillion of financing bills for the month of April, a MOF official said Tuesday. The ministry plans to offer around Y13.8 trillion of three-month financing bills and Y4 trillion of two-month bills, the official said.

Black Blade: That's over $141 billion. That could buy a few US dollars. Not looking good for Japan.

Black BladeJapan Government Think Tank Head Sees Long Battle On Deflation#1006614/1/03; 00:25:58


TOKYO -(Dow Jones)- The deflation weighing on the Japanese economy is deep- rooted and it will take time to defeat it, the new head of a government think tank said Tuesday.
"There are many methods to overcome deflation, such as weakening the value of the yen," said Yutaka Kosai, the chairman of the Cabinet Office's Economic and Social Research Institute. The Ministry of Finance has quietly intervened in the foreign exchange markets a number of times this year to stem excessive yen rises, which undermine Japan's fragile export-led recovery. Reflecting Japan's heavy focus on the yen's value in shoring up the economy, Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said Tuesday that his ministry will continue to act in currency markets if it feels the need to.

Black Blade: And so it goes.

slingshotBelgian Msg#100659#1006624/1/03; 01:16:52

Free Gold

This may amount to nothing but jibberish but here it goes.

Digital currency / fractional banking/ Paper money. If all banks use fractional banking there by printing paper money how does digital money play as to its importance in either a deflationary or inflationary situation. Digital can be erased by a stroke of a key while the paper is harder to dispose of. Also would the amount of other currencies in circulation have an effect on the price of gold should the Euro become the world reserve Instead of the dollar.

BelgianUK#1006634/1/03; 01:32:33

Financial media talk, again, about UK joining EMU . Economic conditions (UK/Euroland) are plus minus converging...but EMU participation remains a political it has always been.
Will "The City" be happy with the shift from dollars to euro ?

Belgian@ slingshot#1006644/1/03; 02:21:24

Up until now, we have been discussing how "unfree" Gold is and has been for decades ! Perhaps that's why Free Gold seems quite difficult to understand, today.
Hyperfocus on the euro as a currency is not necessary. Simply consider the euro as the concept that "wants" to set Gold Free. One day, all currencies will encourage ever rising goldprices, constantly revaluating their central bank's gold-exchange-reserves. Exactly the opposite of what happened before !

As long as Gold must remain contained as to not compete with currencies (digits or notes/coins)...we keep fooling ourselves ad infinitum.

This whole world-economy is going to land into a cul de sac (death-end) because of the monetary monstrosities.
Or you believe in the US - NWO that will save the world ?

But, please, look at " JAPAN " (not Botswana) AGAIN ! And make some serious conclusions about this dramatic fact (not theory).

A/FOA and astute posters have extensively described what unfree gold is...why it had to be chained...and who (euro-architects) desires to set gold free, before the whole monetary system collapses under its own weights.

Real Free Physical Goldtrade is as simple as can be. And yet NOBODY feels the urge to give it any consideration.
Because we are all fully "paperized"..."digitalized" !

The more GOLD remains contained...the more the fundamental monetary-rot has gained dept.

And for the last time...ask yourself WHY "Gold-Property" is the only (!!!) tangible asset that is NOTTTTTTT TAXEDDDDDD !


Belgian@ Free Willie...about Free Gold#1006654/1/03; 02:43:48

In a Free Goldmarket, you, me, central banks, institutions, etc... buy and sell PHYSICAL Gold FREELY. Up until now, ALL *** SUBSTANTIAL *** physical goldtrade is done into the deepiest darkness of secrecy !!! Because Free Goldtrade MUST remain contained with the "paper" instrument ! Papergold to keep fiat-confetti alive, in use and functioning.
The euro has no intention to "battle" gold !!! On the contrary. The euro-concept wants to set physical goldtrade free ! It is the dollar-reserve (concept) that wants to keep battling (containing) gold ! The euro accepts the authority of free gold as to judge its future management and intrinsic worth. That's why the ECB doesn't mind to mark its goldreserves to market...a future free goldmarket !!! The dollar wants its goldreserves to be booked at the 41$/Oz price of 3 decades ago !

If goldreserve valuations (prices) were unimportant...WHY was there the Washington Agreement ?

Gold is Wealth, Willie...and central banks want to be/remain, wealthy...yep, right...with their gold-exchange-reserves. One's currency must be associated with one's management of its Real Gold Wealth. A much nicer concept than the logics of war ! Don't you think so ?

Malfleursector (03/31/03; 20:32:07MT - msg#: 100647)#1006664/1/03; 03:03:40

I suggest that sector is as usual being unnecessarily baleful. For the antidote, read:

This is an article by the respected military historian, John Keegan, entitled "This Is Not Vietnam - the Allies Are Well on the Way to Victory:. "


Would one be advised to sell DROOY and buy HMY?

GondolinFree Gold and Currencies#10066704/01/03; 04:40:42

Have been following with interest the discussions on free gold and the relative positions of the dollar and euro and have a few random (and hopefully not irrational) thoughts that any comments would be welcome on from the more learned of our friends. With the launch of the Islamic dinar imminent, and the assumed eventual emergence of China as a big player on the currency scene, what will the implications be? Making an assumption that China will eventually overhaul the yuan and issue a new currency capable of being used for international trade and transactions, is there anything that says either the dollar or euro must be dominant? Is it possible that there can be several major currencies, the euro, dollar, yuan (or derivative therof), and any others that may emerge, along with the dinar, all linked to a free gold market, all valued according to their respective positions against gold?
ToolieThe Return of Stagflation#10066804/01/03; 05:20:42

....More significant for Austrian economists: the spectacular increase of gold prices (in US dollars). Among the liquid assets (risk adjusted), gold is at the moment one of the most profitable assets in real terms. It is highly unusual that gold and bond prices increase at the same time.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.The perfect property: Liquid. Portable. No sales tax. No annual property taxes. No upkeep expenses.#10066904/01/03; 08:16:45

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TownCrierWGC's O'Connell reports from London. Note the ***higlighted*** comment.#10067004/01/03; 08:46:57

Gold traded up to $338/ounce in Asia today before easing under profit taking and in the face of a small rally in the dollar. The dollar had previously weakened against the euro in London and New York hours (touching $1.09 to the euro at one stage) as markets continued to respond to Middle Eastern developments, during which time gold was steady, largely around $335/ounce. New York saw some early interest, but that was all and the market spent much of the day snoozing gently.

***Physical buying interest is well spread around the world, although once again it is Asian trading hours in which the price registers its high.***

BoilermakerRumor #10067104/01/03; 08:59:30

I have this nagging feeling that sometime this week we will have a rumor emerge "Saddam believed dead, Iraqi leadership shaky". This will be used to support a spike in the SM and the US$ and pound gold $5 or more. Probably Fiday PM so that confirmation/denial of the rumor won't come before close or earlier in the week if the SM looks to be tanking and/or gold spiking.


timbervisionBelgian#10067204/01/03; 09:01:14

Thanks a ton, gotta run.
Clink!@ Boilermaker#10067304/01/03; 09:03:09

Is that you trying to start a rumor about a rumor ? LOL !
sectorT* Update#10067404/01/03; 10:27:33

Recall, it's the date that the defending regime decides to stop defending...

...their falling or rising currency [In the case of Japan]. The US with an ever shrinking "Coalition" of willing central banks sells its gold to defend the US currency. As William McChesney Martin said in the Nixon Administration, "I will defend the dollar to the last ingot". His mistake was not having a retreat plan [More later in the week].

No body knows for sure how many ingots are left today but there are some metrics that carry value.

Gold volatility. Going up of late, beginning with the Feb 5th COMEX margin trick ambush...not unlike the Iraqi tactic of surrendering then launching a counter-attack. From Dec 5th to Feb 5th the upward move was a straight line saying "Look at me, I'm going up nice and smooth". Just like a white flag.

Currency volatility is going up, especially since the "Two-week war" isn't on schedule and especially today.

Physical gold off-take is rising too. Thus, we have tiny indicators of stress in the defense of the dollar.

The attack side of the equation is intensifying as well. Mexico has announced the sale of dollars, Russia and China have announced their intention to better balance their trade levels with their dollar reserves [China says it has too many dollars and proportionally not enough Euros]. The French and Germans are less than happy with dollars. Then there's oil with the Nigerians threatening to cut the US off from a bit less than 1 million strike-reduced bbls per day [Some reports have the strike settled today], Indonesians suggesting Euro pricing and so forth.

One can never be sure in a complex war about one's position and this gold war is no different. We CAN say that the opponent is cunning, ruthless and desperate...or else why the start Iraq war and why now? There had to be a particularly damaging economic loss condition that drove the March 20th invasion date [I reject the notion that that date was chosen to infuriate the Islamic World on its equivalent of Easter Sunday (Ashoura)]. What was it? [This observes that the WMD argument is a deflection]

Is the loss condition attributable to the credit and stock market downturn? They can be stretched by offshore off balance sheet, off budget derivative buying programs and the Fed's printing press. Is it the oil price rise or OPEC's cartel in general? Maybe, but we have a full 27 days of SPR from which to sell the price down and if push came to shove, we can ration to get by until a more perfect war launch date and OPEC is waning in importance. There was this appearance of a ticking clock that is eating away at the Administration and time finally ran out--forcing an attack under less than ideal circumstances.

The assumption of a quick and clean war as a cure for the previously pressing economic loss condition has now encountered the realities of a longer effort with unknown war cost loss levels for an unknown time interval in an increasingly hostile economic " Multi-Polar" World not to mention the political ramifications.

Using the military rule of vulnerability as a guide, we can say that gold is the most sensitive front in today's economic war for its price is accepted as the health meter for currencies. If the remaining supply of gold were plainly adequate then we would have seen a massive pounding of the price to back under $300 per ounce and not the amateurish tricks of a Saddam-like COMEX margin rules change. Nor would we have seen as we do today the furious up and down inter-day volatility.

Today's battle report from the gold war front has the enemy dug in at $333 and barely holding on with Gold-Bugs owning air superiority with unlimited ordnance supply and probing the Fed's defenses. A siege is in progress and "Day by Day", to quote the President, the enemy is being reduced and his forces "Degraded". Soon the Fed will break lines and run for a better defense position up on higher ground…or the master of the Universe may just say…"No Mas…No Mas"

cockerel1On a lighter note!#10067504/01/03; 10:30:47

Wednesday March 19, 2003


NEW YORK -- Federal investigators have arrested an enigmatic Wall Street wiz on insider-trading charges -- and incredibly, he claims to be a time-traveler from the year 2256!

Sources at the Security and Exchange Commission confirm that 44-year-old Andrew Carlssin offered the bizarre explanation for his uncanny success in the stock market after being led off in handcuffs on January 28.

"We don't believe this guy's story -- he's either a lunatic or a pathological liar," says an SEC insider.

"But the fact is, with an initial investment of only $800, in two weeks' time he had a portfolio valued at over $350 million. Every trade he made capitalized on unexpected business developments, which simply can't be pure luck.

"The only way he could pull it off is with illegal inside information. He's going to sit in a jail cell on Rikers Island until he agrees to give up his sources."

The past year of nose-diving stock prices has left most investors crying in their beer. So when Carlssin made a flurry of 126 high-risk trades and came out the winner every time, it raised the eyebrows of Wall Street watchdogs.

"If a company's stock rose due to a merger or technological breakthrough that was supposed to be secret, Mr. Carlssin somehow knew about it in advance," says the SEC source close to the hush-hush, ongoing investigation.

When investigators hauled Carlssin in for questioning, they got more than they bargained for: A mind-boggling four-hour confession.

Carlssin declared that he had traveled back in time from over 200 years in the future, when it is common knowledge that our era experienced one of the worst stock plunges in history. Yet anyone armed with knowledge of the handful of stocks destined to go through the roof could make a fortune.

"It was just too tempting to resist," Carlssin allegedly said in his videotaped confession. "I had planned to make it look natural, you know, lose a little here and there so it doesn't look too perfect. But I just got caught in the moment."

In a bid for leniency, Carlssin has reportedly offered to divulge "historical facts" such as the whereabouts of Osama Bin Laden and a cure for AIDS.

All he wants is to be allowed to return to the future in his "time craft."

However, he refuses to reveal the location of the machine or discuss how it works, supposedly out of fear the technology could "fall into the wrong hands."

Officials are quite confident the "time-traveler's" claims are bogus. Yet the SEC source admits, "No one can find any record of any Andrew Carlssin existing anywhere before December 2002."

Weekly World News will continue to follow this story as it unfolds. Keep watching for further developments.

Maybe he was the mystery buyer of the 30 tons of gold from Portugal!

Clink!Interesting chart work from Mr Sinclair#10067604/01/03; 10:38:17

Market turning points on Gold, US$ and Silver. You also get some free samples of his modesty and humility !
Daniel Druffsector#10067704/01/03; 10:43:59

"...not the amateurish tricks of a Saddam-like COMEX margin rules change." sector

Mike, I have to tell you something...I'm beginning to like you. Don't get me wrong, I think your anti-Patriot act is doing great damage, temporarily, to the education of the investing public regarding gold. But from a selfish standpoint that's fine, in that lower purchase prices contribute to bigger long-term gains. Carry on, say crazy things, insult the powers that be, turnoff the average conservative less informed citizen. Go GATA!

[With a smile on my face] Mike, has there ever been a bull market in the history of the world where margin requirements were not raised? I luv ya man.


TownCrierBrain surgery with a sledge hammer#10067804/01/03; 11:13:49

HEADLINE: Economy Hurting, May Need Fed Salve

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing suffered a surprisingly severe slowdown in March, a report on Tuesday showed, feeding fears that the economy as a whole may be contracting.

There were also signs of consumer fatigue, with surveys on chain store sales showing a marked deterioration last month.

"The case for a policy easing is building and while not everyone at the Fed may be over the line yet, if the data remains this weak they'll have to bite the bullet eventually," said strategist Rory Robertson, who covers the U.S. economy for the Australian bank in New York.

The turning point could come as soon as Friday, when the March labor report is released....

"The chances increase significantly for a 50-basis point rate cut by the Fed by its June meeting. I won't rule out an inter-meeting rate cut of 50 basis points," [said Vince Boberski, chief economist at RBC Dain Rauscher in Chicago.]

Official rates are already at a four-decade low of 1.25 percent...

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USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...#10068004/01/03; 11:33:15

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

MK. Our business philosophy allows us to take a more laid-back approach. We don't employ a room full of brokers spinning the phones day and night. We don't have multi-million dollar advertising expenses dictating what kind of advice we give clients. This is all by choice. I decided long ago that I didn't want the headaches that go with managing a large number of brokers and the support staff and facilities required. At the same time, we get hundreds of requests each month for introductory information packets. We do not make cold calls. We do not work mailing lists. We do not call people at all hours of the day or night. We do not use marketing and sales gimmicks -- leaders, bait and switch, and the rest of it. We primarily work with clients who have discovered us, like what they see, and want to form a long term relationship with a reputable and reliable gold firm.

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

MK. Yes and no. In the short run, "yes." In the long run, "no." We probably lose a few prospects to the aggressive companies which use hard-sell tactics but we will not be changing our client-friendly approach. We know that not every prospective investor is going to become a client of USAGOLD / Centennial. However, we know that the client who chooses us is likely to be the type of client we are accustomed to doing business with. We work with a large number of professional people and business owners -- active, retired and semi-retired. In fact, we work with clientele that span the economic spectrum and all walks of life. Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to earlier. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

MK. Fundamentally, we believe that we are here to serve the client. Anyone who has done business with us will vouch for the courteous and professional service he or she has received. Our staff is carefully chosen and it shows. We get referrals on nearly a daily basis and are kept busy with strong repeat business. I would also like to call attention to the solid informational services offered at this website. We believe that any of our clients or visitors will find USAGOLD head and shoulders above anything else out there. I would encourage anyone attending this site to have a look around. We also publish a very good hard copy newsletter called News & Views: A Bi-monthly Review of Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Above and beyond that, the most important thing is the way we treat our clientele. From first inquiry through order fulfillment, we want to make the gold investing experience as pleasant and rewarding as possible. We have a large and satisfied clientele and that's the way we want to keep it.

mikalU.S. economic mirage, "The house of cards", awaits the "former panic"#10068104/01/03; 11:35:17

By: Ed Henry
Tuesday, April 1, 2003, it has been 41 days since the nation hit the $6.4 trillion national debt ceiling and the Bush administration hasn't been able to borrow since. Two things are important here.
First, this is coming just after the greatest borrowing period America has ever seen. The national debt increased $421 billion in new debt during fiscal 2002 and so far this fiscal year the Bush administration has added another $217 billion for a grand total of $638 billion borrowed in five quarters. And it's just the beginning.
Since January, the U.S. Treasury has been in a holding action on borrowing until we finally hit the debt limit on February 20, 2003 under the supervision of a new Secretary of the Treasury, the last treasurer having left rather abruptly.
Normally, this would be a time of crisis. We would have media commentators acting hysterically. There would be warnings of national bankruptcy, government shut-downs, and all sorts of disaster. This time, there isn't a peep.
We all know why there has been no mention of the national debt. The Fourth Estate, or what passes for news in this country, has been almost totally immersed in promoting the Bush administration's war effort. But you should also notice what this silence says about the former panics and how valid they were.
Foolishly, one little symptom of reality has shown up like a single piece of flack in the latest bombardment to "support our troops in Iraq." Reuters and the Associated Press have been covering congressional arguments over the President's proposed budget for fiscal 2004 and whether it sufficiently covers the cost of war and rebuilding Iraq after we crush the relatively harmless pipsqueak Hussein regime.
Such news is foolish, not only because we have no idea what the war and its promotion has cost taxpayers so far or what it may cost us from this point forward, but because it's what Congress always does anyway. My God, we just passed the budget for fiscal 2003, the year we're already into by six months, and you can safely expect the same sort of congressional bickering to go on well past the time when the new fiscal 2004 budget is supposed to go into effect on October 1, 2003.
As a symptom of reality, however, the fact that Congress is finally concerned about the cost of this war and particularly the cost of occupying and rebuilding Iraq is extremely valid. This is the second point I promised you above.
During the first Gulf War when we drove Saddam's troops out of Kuwait and went no further, the rest of the world was willing to support us financially both in terms of the war itself and cleaning up Kuwait.
This time, we are much more likely to encounter a response from our friends that, to put it bluntly, says; Hey, you wanted this invasion at a time when inspections seemed to be working and could have been improved and amplified if there was a deadline. We could have peacefully accomplished the same thing with containment that had already been working for twelve years. Now you ask us for money. You know what the richest nation in the world can now do with its pleas for financial aid from the rest of us.
This is further complicated by the fact that the Euro has been competing with the dollar for some time and especially in terms of oil from Iraq.
Do you really think Britain, Spain, and Australia are going to come up with a bunch of cash when they've got financial troubles at home? Or that we can pry it out of them with expensive oil through our international oil baron companies? Lots of luck.
The Bush "go it alone" first strike policy is going to come home to roost in a hurry unless we simply turn our backs on the "liberated" people of Iraq, seize our oil that somehow got under their sand, and forget about rebuilding their infrastructure.
The house of cards the U.S. government has built is liable to completely collapse. Fraud and deception that has been going on for years may come unglued. And, as usual and God willing, I'll still be trying to bring it to your attention as it happens.
Mistake #1
Holding at the current debt ceiling of $6.4 trillion not only proves that the government can truly live within its means when it must and could always have achieved balanced budgets, but seems to be a crazy attempt to hold off until April 15th in hopes of a windfall bonus on the annual tax date.
Too many Americans believe that they are among the few filing for refunds by April fifteenth. Last year these refunds averaged about $1,400 per recipient. And somehow, many don't seem to understand that their employer sends a significant portion of their paycheck to the government every month or so, that personal income tax is constantly flowing into government coffers.
Mostly, it's the big guys and the self-employed who pay heavy taxes on the final tax day. This is the time when they must reconcile the quarterly estimates they've been sending and come up with the balance due. And the truly astute big guys hedged their estimates with overpayment safety valves and now fall on the refund side.
Last year, the feds expected an April windfall and it didn't happen. Instead, the government received a significant shortfall in expected tax revenue, a shortfall that led to a great deal of borrowing in order to continue their planned budget spending.
In fiscal 2002, April receipts from corporations were less than half of the previous year, $9.8 billion compared to $23.7 billion the year before. Personal income tax receipts were almost as bad, all due to a sour economy.
You would think that the many people planning the next year's budget would take this into account, but they didn't. The fiscal 2003 budget was established on the false belief that the recession would be over. Things would have returned to normal.
Here's what the government has received so far this year, taken from the U.S. Treasury's Monthly Report for February 2003:
Notice that "Net Receipts" from both individual and corporate taxes so far this year in the middle column "Fiscal Year To Date" are down considerably from last year, and you just saw how bad last year turned out.
Individual income taxes stand at $331.5 billion to date while at the same time last year the figure was $374 billion. Corporate income taxes stand at $33 billion compared to $63 billion last year.
You might also note where "Net Outlays" are up and where they're down, but pay particular attention to "Social insurance and retirement receipts" in the "Net Receipts" area. And remember, payroll taxes produced an $89 billion surplus for Social Security in fiscal 2002 despite high unemployment and all the talk about surpluses disappearing.
Again this year, the phony Social Security trust funds (Federal Old Age & Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance) have increased. They now stand at a combined total of $1.4 trillion and constitute 21.7 percent of the national debt. And that's only so far this year.
President Bush talks about the unfairness in double taxation on stock holder dividends, but it's nothing compared to the double taxation of the American worker in regard to payroll taxes.
If or when the Social Security Administration must ever draw upon its debit black hole "trust fund" in order to meet obligations to the retired and disabled the American worker or his children will be paying the same taxes, plus interest, that they already paid once before, original payroll taxes that the government took and spent elsewhere.
That's real double taxation. In the case of stockholders, the corporation paid the taxes the first time.
It's happening right now.
The Department of Labor has been drawing down on the Unemployment Trust fund for months now and this trust is in the same condition as the Social Security trust fund. It has no money, only debt with interest added.
In July of 2001, the Unemployment trust fund had about $92 billion. Today, it's down to less than $54 billion. And that means taxpayers have already been double billed for $38 billion that employers paid originally but the government stole and pretended to borrow.
Here are the figures:
Everything in red indicates money that had to come either from current income and corporate taxes that was supposed to go somewhere else or from borrowing. Given the increases in the national debt, you can assume it came mostly from borrowing.
May of 2002 was when interest was paid the trust fund without cash involved. The Beltway Bandits simply hand the trust more junk bonds.
Since the government has been unable to borrow for the last 41 days, the month of March, 2003, will be the first time we can be absolutely certain that the shortfall in money to pay the unemployed came solely from the Treasury's general fund of current taxes. In other words, in March a sizeable chunk of your tax money went to pay the unemployed instead of going to education, agriculture, or any other part of discretionary spending. It was not put on the never-never credit card plan for your children to pay.
In Summary
What is happening is exactly the same thing that would be happening if there were no trust funds at all. Shortfalls would be made up for by taking money from current taxes, money meant to go elsewhere, or borrowing it from investors.
In other words, there are at least twenty entitlement trust funds that are a sham, completely fraudulent, and part of a scam set up by the government. The entire "Intragovernmental Holdings" section of the national debt, $2.7 trillion in bogus holdings and 43 percent of the national debt, could be eliminated tomorrow with no harm to anyone but the perpetrators of a scam that makes Enron, WorldCom, and other private sector crooks look like children at play.
Keep your eyes on the war, the government's greatest weapon of mass distraction.
"Published originally at : republication allowed with this notice and hyperlink intact."

Daniel DruffOops!#10068204/01/03; 11:48:25

The Le Ronde Gold Mine Has COLLAPSED!!!!

Now this is news: Stop...think about this for just a moment...the world's immediate supply of gold has just declined.

Thankfully, no injuries and no loss of reserves but a rather unusual way to get a little leverage.


physicalmanDaniel Druff--my interjection#10068404/01/03; 12:19:19

Gotta comment on some of your recent remarks about Bill murphy'sector,beuna fe and others
1: I for one want no other than a sometimes loud, screaming, raving, insulting true patriot such as Murphy and others carrying the torch for the battle against gold manipulation. I doubt very seriously that being a nice, Ph'd type with quiet scholary discussion is going to get anything accomplished except compliments on mannerisms. The vast majority of people will never get on the precious metal train until it is too late. Probably only 1/2 of 1% of the population has physical gold and silver investments in the last 6 years and more will not jump on the bandwagon until it is too late. The true fact of the matter is very,very few people can actually get by right now with a totally free and honest price of gold and silver. I believe that i could to a greater extent than most for i have no debt, large physical PM positions, lots of stockpiled neccessities and paid for land and homes, but i would still have to have large amounts of fiat to pay taxes, buy fuel and energy'special foodstuffs, etc., etc. because the system we live under still accepts the paper and digital fiat as payment for these things. Murphy and others know that most folks who know the truth are already onboard and there are not too many more minds to sway. So let them holler the truth at the top of their lungs and call a spade a spade! I for one am sick and tired of people tippy-toeing around the truth so as to not upset or alienate anyone. A liar is a liar and a crook is a crook. The bullion bankers, Fed and many of the powers in our and other govts. and previous administrations are guilty of nothing less than treason for what has been done to our glorious constitution.
Sector's referral to the Comex as Saddam-Like is dead on.

How true would be your understanding of all the real reasons for gold and silver ownership. Showing a paper profit is probably the last thing. If one thinks very deeply about the subject there are only three true properties that one could possess in our country right now
1: physical gold
2: physical silver
3: patented mining claim
Right now everything else that i can think of can be taxed away-homes, land, cars, personal property and even your labor. But remember that gold and silver are only true property as i think Aristotle said if their is no forced conversion to fiat as there was in 1933. Not fussing at you per se just think that we would be a lot further from the truths that are known about the monetary crimes that have been committed if we had likable mild-mannered pansies as our delegates instead of warriors such as Murphy,Sinclair, Howe and so many others that i could not possbly mention them all. I have been in the metals since the sixties but i am more like a supply officer. GATA is the Patton leading the battle at the front lines!
Get Gold! Get Silver! And raise cain about the rest!

BrialeThe truth of the unknown.#10068504/01/03; 12:32:34

This is my first message on the esteemed forum and I would like to keep it short and rant free, but folks that have seen my posts elsewhere will know that is impossible. I apologize in advance for the length.

First off it seems that investors in general, and gold investors in particular, love to play the part of Cassandra. This quality in itself is not a bad thing except when the part begins to play you. The present day world begins to look like shadows and the future that only you can see becomes your present reality. This is when you can fall into that open manhole in front of your path. I attribute this to the contrarian habit of not thinking linearly and not becoming a true believer. It can be a rewarding way of thinking but only if the timing is right. In this regard gold-bugs, or any investor, can be their own worst enemy as the belief in their own crystal clear future clouds their perception of the present day. To be a true contrarian is to listen to what an ancient wise man once said, "Do not believe in me, do not believe what I say. Do not believe something because I have said it. Experiment with it, go through it, and until you achieve your own conclusion remain in doubt. Your own experience will become your faith."

So how does this pertain to gold and the world of today? What do we as individuals within a massive social construct really need to know? Can we get all the pertinent information necessary to perceive the future? NO! Therefore the purchase of gold should be the foundation of an investors future wealth, as a hedge for the future. It should not be a purchase to exploit a future reality that has not, and may not arrive.

Will the dollar be around in the future? Yes, especially if the dollar remains defined in terms of itself i.e. one dollar=100 cents and 1 cent=1/100 of one dollar. The dollar will not change in that regard, but the balance of the esoteric intangible dollar against the reality of tangible fungible goods will and must change. Will gold go to thousands of dollars per ounce? Perhaps, but what will be the relationship between the dollar and gold and other dollar denominated goods at that point? It is an unknown but it is not a moot point. Therefore gold as an investment is prudent as gold has been time tested as the most stable fungible asset known to man. The corolary to this idea is that, at least in the present fiat system which is skewed in favor of inflation, gold is for saving for the future and dollars are for spending in the present at least as long as the present system is still operational. The amount of time that defines the present and future, of course is left up to the individual investor.

Are we at Hubbert's peak in world oil production? Are the Russians right about their theories of abiotic oil formation? Does it matter? In the present time, yes it does matter as policies both monetarily and militarily are predicated on consistent energy flows. The system is very similar to a company that is heavily indebted and relies on constant sales to generate cash flow to service interest payments. The day the flow stops is the day the game ends. Without an oil economy there will come a change in human life. What will be the outcome? Your guess is as good as mine. For all we know it could generate a glorious Jeffersonian utopia. Or it could be Huxley-esque vision of utopia=horror. Yet another reason to hold gold due to its time tested use as a means of exchange throughout time and in many different forms of human society.

Yes the future is uncertain. Gold can be the investment to make that uncertainty less foreboding and free yourself to deal perceptively and wisely in the present day. I am just as sure that the ounces of gold I have now will remain ounces of gold in the future, just as I am unsure whether the paper in my wallet and portfolio will be exchangeable for an equivalent number of ounces of gold in the future. How much gold is necessary? That too is unknown, but knowing how many dollars are needed to function within today's system is, and I personally use that as my guide. Although I have not dealt with MK and his staff at present, when I acquire more dollars than I need to spend in the present day, I will add to my sovereign future.

Daniel Druffphysicanman#10068604/01/03; 12:47:03

Civilization -vs- Anarchy

Anarchy is really an uncivilized way to live, imho.

GATA, by charter definition, can offer no improvement to our fiat-credit-system. In terms of Economic Theory, they are intellectually bankrupt...they offer nothing. They are playing a losing hand as defined by their reward should they win...they get paid in fiat! Why would they act this way knowing that gold is priced in Dollars which are not backed by gold or silver...because they are obsessed with the spirit of anarchy, imo.

Bill and his friends should concentrate on The Cafe and let Chris and James Grant (hope, hope, hope) to their thing. The first thing should be a slight change in the Charter...we need a new system period


OvSRe: Saudi Suggestion #10068704/01/03; 12:50:38

Just read on the NY Times web page:
"A Saudi suggestion that Saddam Hussein
step down got a pungent reply from
Iraq's vice president: "Go to Hell".

Maybe he meant it literally; Hussein
is dead and that's where you can talk
to him...?

sectorDaniel Druff Condemns GATA and Opines That...#10068804/01/03; 12:54:20

...the United States Constitution is Anarchy...

...because it directs that [After numnerous pages of Federalist Papers justifications] gold and silver should be the unit of exchange.

He suggests that our corrupt fiat unbacked monetary system or some nebulous tooth-fairy based banking unit is somehow better than the document our fore fathers [After witnessing France's paper money debacle] signed.

I'll stand with the United States Consitution.

Gandalf the WhiteWELCOME Sir Briale !#10068904/01/03; 13:02:56

Briale (04/01/03; 12:32:34MT - msg#: 100685)
The truth of the unknown.
Thanks for joining the discussion at the TABLEROUND !!
Let us hear more from you soon.

Aristotlephysicalman, where would we be if we had "likable mild-mannered pansies" as our delegates?#10069104/01/03; 13:13:55

I've climbed a mountain of books and had plenty of hands on, but have gain more insights and inspirations from the powerful leadership of FOA than all else combined. He's a *flower* in a desert if ever there was one.

Belgian is another of my favorite pansies. I've gleaned a lot of political appreciations from the rosie stylings of Miner49er, without any thorns in sight. Look at Mr. Gresham... ain't he a daisy? And when you deal with the staff of this place you're practically hip-deep in cherry blossoms.

Unfortunately, it only takes a few vocal loonies with less than half a grasp on half a story to give Gold and every Gold investor a stereotypical bad reputation for the media and others to exploit to their own advantages. To the extent than anyone of these vocal guys step into the spotlight attempting to play the part of Gold's champion, they'd better bear public perception in mind 'cause at the end of the day, they need Gold a helluva lot more than Gold needs them.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Mr GreshamMikal#10069204/01/03; 13:25:20

Thanks for the Ed Henry article and other good posts you bring to us so regularly.

"President Bush talks about the unfairness in double taxation on stock holder dividends, but it's nothing compared to the double taxation of the American worker in regard to payroll taxes."

Here's a thought I haven't heard elsewhere (I _do_ try to be original occasionally ;):

That advice about retirees downsizing their houses and cashing in the equity they've built. Hmmmm... I was explaining to my daughter yesterday about how many (most?) cultures keep the generations together under one roof, and grandparents are welcomed and respected in the home.

Perhaps we need to think Reversal here. If all of the paper financial systems are going ka-blooey in our "golden" years, maybe we should hang onto that "big" house, and keep some room for the youngers to move in; help us pay those soaring property taxes?

In fact, get 'em in ASAP; sell whatever bloated McMansion they've already bought into, or save on rent for the 20-somethings out there, consolidate the family's real estate outlays, and let 'em start paying for the place they may inherit someday.

Only problem is the commoditization of real estate. How many people really own a place they love, a place they imagine as a home for their grandchildren to play and grow up in? Rather than just another checkbook to be balanced and eventually closed...

Daniel Druffsector#10069304/01/03; 13:27:29

"But if they try to fight with minimal losses, accurately as they are doing it now, avoiding big clashes, the outcome is far from certain. Iraq has quite a serious army, and it hasn't yet started to fight." as posted by sector

Well they'd better get started real soon. You don't think that Iraq will use chem or bio weapons, do you? After all, they clearly stated that they didn't have any. So what will they use...they'll all start singing Rap Music and 1/2 our guys will run the other way...the other half had better be careful.


AristotleDaniel Druff on and on#10069404/01/03; 13:30:48

I don't care about Gata's bankruptcy, or anyone else's for that matter. I'd rather hear about the VIABLE SOLUTIONS that you see them failing to put forth. In other words, in the absence of a Gata brain trust, howzabout giving us some of your own ideas for corrective measures to the flaws of the monetary sytem as we now have it. Nobody ever said we've all gotta just sit back and hang our hats on whatever it is that Gata's spewing out as a finger-pointer or whatever they are. The pioneers who settled the West certainly didn't sit around and wait for it.

If it's broke, chip in a fix it. Instead, you're publically whipping the boy who's just standing there crying over spilled milk. I think you can do better than that. We all can.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Mr GreshamAri#10069504/01/03; 13:45:04

Thanks for your floral compliments; in fact, I think I see the FTD truck pulling up in the driveway right now.

I've dealt with Pattons & I've dealt with Gandhis, I just can't take too much of any one type all at once. (If Patton hadn't slapped that shell-shocked GI in the hospital, would we have the same harsh image?)

In fact, my local situation has just eased up considerably, so I feel less inclined to step in as peacemaker in all situations. Especially the Forum -- its robustness is proving itself over and over, in good times and hard -- wouldn't you agree? ;)

FOA definitely pointed us to the larger picture, the one we would probably never see behind the scenes. Thus the lack of need for a gold cheerleader. (In fact, Bernanke is perhaps living proof that, at the end of its timeline, it is FIAT that needs the cheerleader! And by touting one of its _worst_ qualities, abundance, too!)

And yet, I appreciate someone stepping out with drive and determination, a bit of heroism, and willing to turn over a few rocks. It helps pass what has turned out to be a long time, since we first read words like:

"Hello everyone, I'm glad you could come along. My name is FOA. I see a lot of old faces here,,,, and some new. If you are wondering where we are,,,,,, you're participating in one of our walks and talks on "The Gold Trail". You're one of many people who take the long drive out of the city to come here. Some say it clears their mind from things that are not real. Whatever the reason, it seems everyone arrives here sooner or later. "

With all of the events of the past months, I wish I could pull out time for a re-read. Seems everyone's talking our topics these days. It may not be the beginning of the end, but it probably is the end of the beginning, isn't it?

These days, we hardly know if we're crossing the Rubicon to Imperial America, or the Rhine to Dollar Defeat...

WaveriderDAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT #10069604/01/03; 13:47:12

"This is the first time in decades that all the major world economies are coming apart at the same time. It is a strange world when all the major world economies struggle to weaken their currencies against each other for a competitive edge in a shrinking market. It will get worse as debt continues to pile up to new record breaking levels day by day. In the United States, Americans have spent all or more of their income and are buried in debt. Add to that rising job losses, rising corporate debt and rising credit downgrades, and record government debt and it is easy to see that the U.S. dollar will be in decline for decades at least. I wish it were just a bad April Fools Day joke but its not."

CometoseSILVER#10069704/01/03; 13:52:17

I am doing this because it is APRIL FOOL'S DAY ;
and because the extended war is putting a warp on the other financial news....; this will also serve as reality check for me ....

Yesterday, there was news.....about SILVER....
from MARCH 24 from the NEVADA LEGISLATURE regarding MINTING SILVER COINS AS currency lawful for Paying obligations...

PINCH ME so that I know that I am not dreaming.....IF THIS IS REAL AND IT BECOMES LAW , it bears repeating daily until legislation is passed......THOSE folks over in NEVADA seem to be a progressive bunch ...

ALSO Can someone confirm that REFCO yesterday recommended buying SILVER ?????

The cloud will dissipate , the fog will dissapear, the Euphoria will be replaced with the hard cold facts one day ..
when the elephant can no longer be covered up by the illusionists on wall st and in the main stream press and in the govt' .....THe disclaimers that keep coming out of the FED are an indication to me that the slaughterhouse around the corner that we are smelling but can't see is getting ready to be unveiled right in front of our eyes....

I lived in Emporia , KS in a former life; It was quite smelly in the summer when the wind blew across town ....which it always did....( they put the slaughterhouse on the wrong side of the prevailing winds{we at this forum may also because of the information we have been given may also be found on the wrong side /informed side of the prevailing winds})
This experience is being brought back to my memory regularly now because of the smoke and mirrors we are seeing all around us ........
When in Emporia , we could smell the burning ....and we knew that the butchering had happened ......
as NICK GUARINO says .....It already happened.....there's no reversing what has occured......the wealth of three generations has been vaporized by WALL STREET lying cheating thieves.....NOT much in the news about the huksters getting their due.....Martin Wiess says that there is another round of shocks coming that are unraveing at the major brokerage houses...brought to you by the SEC.

I am so thankful that Providence would have it that I am sitting here today, reading this forum , and continuing my education in REALITY and REALITY ECONOMICS....

Black BladeWHY JOBS DATA WON'T BE BELIEVED #1006984/1/03; 14:00:17


April 1, 2003 -- THE real whining will start Friday. That's when Washington announces the first employment report since the war began in Iraq. And unless the Bush administration is prepared to clearly explain the flukes that made last month's report so bad, the nation's economy could soon become a key war issue. The first thing that needs to be said is that the economy isn't doing well. Manufacturing is looking weak for the first time this year, and debt-heavy consumers - distracted by the war and worried about their jobs - just aren't in the mood to spend. Economic growth in the first few months of this year probably has been minimal.

You might remember back to early last month, when the U.S. Labor Department announced that 308,000 jobs disappeared during February. It was a front-page headline in most newspapers and caused the administration to again start hollering about tax cuts. Did the economy really lose that many jobs in just one month? Probably not. The missing 308,000 jobs were likely the result of a statistical adjustment made to correct a mistake the month before. In January, the government announced that 143,000 jobs were created, including a highly unlikely 100,000 positions that allegedly sprang up in the retailing part of the economy. Retailers adding 100,000 jobs after the Christmas season!!?? Not likely.

So the extra-gloomy February employment report was probably caused in part by the overly optimistic findings the month before. The numbers being produced by the U.S. Labor Department, in particular, just aren't credible and haven't been for years. Which gets me to this Friday's number. The experts are expecting another 40,000 jobs to disappear. And the unemployment rate is seen jumping one-tenth to 5.9 percent.

Black Blade: The BLS data is flawed as I have pointed out repeatedly. There are several flukes in how the data is tabulated and how the data is tweaked with dubious filters and a lot of massaging. The actual unemployment rate is somewhere in the 11-12% range and perhaps even slightly higher as estimated by several non-government researchers and even exposed in the past by various reporters such as the author of this article (John Crudele). I have covered this in excruciating detail in the past. As the recession drags on it is an obvious conclusion that the unemployment rate won't improve much if at all. I fully expect to see the "real" unemployment rate exceed 25% before the recession and subsequent depression runs its course.

Black BladeEmerging Market Debt Gets Record Flows as Stocks Fall#1006994/1/03; 14:12:55


London, April 1 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market debt funds received more money this year than in all of 2002 as investors sought Russian and other developing-nation bonds as alternatives to sinking stocks and the lowest U.S. Treasury note yields in 50 years.

Black Blade: Ah yes, the "swoosh" sound of cash leaving the major markets for the Third World as major currencies and markets tumble into oblivion. A controlled crash or a nose dive for the major markets? Time will tell.

FreeWillie@Belgian: That's why the ECB doesn't mind to mark its goldreserves to market...a future free goldmarket !!! #1007004/1/03; 14:23:15

Do you mean by "mark to market" that ECB is valuing its gold according to market price?

If that is so, where is the evidence that this will continue to be the case after the dollar is blown to smitherines?

My question was more specific. I know you believe all of these things; I also know that FOA explains it all (but see ORO's ciriticism). My question remains: where is the legal/regulatory evidence?


Daniel DruffAristotle#1007014/1/03; 14:25:23

I. "To the extent than anyone of these vocal guys step into the spotlight attempting to play the part of Gold's champion, they'd better bear public perception in mind 'cause at the end of the day, they need Gold a helluva lot more than Gold needs them." Aristotle

II. "If it's broke, chip in and fix it. Instead, you're publically whipping the boy who's just standing there crying over spilled milk. I think you can do better than that. We all can.them." Aristotle

That makes 3 of us...GB, Aristotle, and DD vote for "perception". With that in mind, it would be a distinct pleasure and honor to discuss a possible solution to the failings of our current monetary system. But I think we're going to need some help. Without Randy and MK we are probably wasting our time.

The Federal Reserve System is an unconstitutional experiment which has failed miserably in doing what is allowed by its' charter. Someone should politely mention this to members of the establishment and especially the investing public. But now WE have a problem...the Charter of USAGold does not allow them to enter into this type of problem solving, so...maybe Randy and MK could act as the devil's advocate. They could offer logical objections to our theories, no?


Black BladeSARS seen threatening Asian economies#1007024/1/03; 14:35:03


Hong Kong — Empty airliners, deserted department stores, vacant restaurants. In the city hardest hit by a mystery flu-like illness that has killed 62 people worldwide, there are signs of a potentially devastating economic impact. "This could be the worst thing since the Asian financial crisis. Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan could easily go into recession," said Andy Xie, a managing director of investment bank Morgan Stanley Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. Mr. Xie was one of only three passengers travelling in business class on a recent flight from London, but the drop-off in travel to the region is only part of the picture. Department stores, shopping malls and restaurants, from the cheapest noodle and fast-food joints to upscale gourmet establishments, are far emptier than usual. "How can you enjoy a meal when the waiters are tiptoeing around in masks? It's like going to a morgue," Mr. Xie said. "If this continues for very long, we're going to see mass bankruptcies."

Black Blade: I can see it now – "SARS tapped for economic downturn". First it was "the weather" as it is too cold to go shopping, now it's the "CNN Effect" as consumers are tied to their television sets and not going shopping, and soon it will be "fear of SARS" keeps consumers from shopping. Wall Street is getting absolutely loony as they desperately search for lame excuses for the economic downturn. As the consumer is two thirds of the economy this will likely be the trend. Today an American Airlines passenger jet was quarantined at San Jose Airport due to suspected SARS infected passengers. Wall Street investment houses are having conference calls discussing how to play the "SARS effect" for shorting Asian stocks (per Bob Pisani on CNBC). Oh yeah, and SARS has hit North American shores recently and soon we will all be wearing surgical masks – now there's an investment tip for ya – going long on "surgical mask makers". "Interesting Times"

Black BladeIs this the second dip? #10070304/01/03; 14:51:13


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Investors may not have to worry about whether the economy might plunge back into recession for much longer. Increasingly, it looks as though the plunge has already begun. Economic reports for February were downright abysmal, suggesting that the economy had rapidly lost the momentum that it had begun the year with. March's opening shot, the Chicago-area Purchasing Managers' Index, came in far below economists' already-dour predictions. If anything, indications are that the economy was even worse in March than it was in February. In a morning note Monday, Merrill Lynch chief North American Economist David Rosenberg said that, as far as he could tell, the economy contracted both months. If there is going to be a recession, according to Rosenberg, we're probably already in it.

"There's nothing out there that's going to lead the recovery," said Brown Brothers Harriman fixed-income portfolio manager Richard Koss. "Businesses don't want to spend -- they're more focused on paying down debt than on buying things." Koss isn't even all that sure that the economy ever came out of recession. Nor is the NBER, which still hasn't got around to declaring when the recession that began in March 2001 ended. Earlier this month it said that, because employment continues to suffer, it still needs time to determine whether the last downturn, in fact, ended.

Black Blade: As I have been saying, we never emerged from recession but the pinheads on Wall Street blather on about two consecutive negative quarters of GDP. Somehow some of these clowns actually got college degrees in economics. Hmmm…

AristotleDaniel, call me blind, but I see nothing resembling roadblocks in our way#10070404/01/03; 15:05:12

Don't you think the Gold Trail is a perfect example of a scope for discussions on repairs for the monetary system? If that's not enough, there's another place where I launched into an overview of the basic inflation/deflation movements of our banking-based monetary system, proposing the complete delinking of Gold from the realm of banking. This turned into a huge discussion thread that Randy archived (I dunno, is that a charter thing?) and FOA warmly embraced on the Trail.

As far as Gold's role is displayed in the context of it all, I think this table's wide open to hammer out the ills of the present system, right here, right now. In fact, isn't that what a fair number of us have been doing all along? The thing is, I've already spilled most of my brains on the matter, and I'm sure nobody wants to see me chew my cabbage twice in monologue form. If you want to discuss it, well, this is one sure place to find me and several other chaps brighter than me with this common interest.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Socrates964DanielDruff#10070504/01/03; 15:11:49

With all due respect, you are grasping the wrong end of several sticks, but let's just deal with your point about GATA getting paid in fiat.

I can only suggest that you either read a book on inflation economics or go and live in a 3rd world country with a fundamentally rotten currency to get the rather obvious point that you are missing, which is as follows:

If I start with a situation where I have a weekly supermarket bill of say $335, in gold terms, I my supermarket bill is 1 oz of gold. Let's say we have 100% inflation, and my supermarket bill goes up to $670, but gold goes up 300% to $1,340 - in gold terms, my supermarket bill has gone down to 1/2 oz gold - a pretty good trade, because I can pay my grocery bills and still have $670 left over in cash.

Now, you seem to be of the belief that the game stops here and that I then sit back and watch my $670 turn to dust. It's more likely that gold has overshot, so I put on another trade (maybe a gold short), and then another trade (maybe a gold long) and another trade, etc. and I keep trading away shifting from one asset class to another ad infinitum or until the dollar falls apart, or I just give up and put it into a non-paper store of value (gold, real estate, paintings, etc.)

The point is that I no longer care what my nominal return is in dollars - what interests me is my return over and above the rate of inflation, and I review my trades monthly, weekly or daily, if need be. Anything that outperforms inflation is a great investment - even if it's a toilet roll or can of beans, and even I only stay positioned for a week. All that counts is to beat inflation (adjusted for my home currency).

I no longer do my TA on nominal prices because I just have a vertical line - I do it on a price graph, deflated by a price index.

The rate of inflation enters into everything - there is no such thing as an in-the-money call option any more. Bonds just become inflation proxies.

But...the dollar will always be the sovereign currency of the US, and I will never be in a situation of going shopping with a cheese grater and a gold bar (I may be able to use it for big ticket items like cars and houses to get round the tax authorities) - it will just be obvious that while the greenback remains a means of exchange, no-one will take it seriously as a store of value.

Frankly, I think you're naive to attack GATA. Assuming gold breaks free, Bill Murphy's great achievement will not be that he liberated the POG single handed (probably big Asian money that will), but that he offered the little guy an escape route from the financial gulag that US financial markets have become. I think he deserves enormous respect for this, if nothing else.

Golden BearDaniel Druff (msg#: 100701)#10070604/01/03; 16:09:47


it is the nature of the markets that the lowest common denominator, ie the average joe, will see the major trends of the financial world last. This is the reason why the real estate bubble hasn't popped yet.

There is little you and I can do for the masses, they will, as history has shown repeatedly, react to their situation too late to avoid the carnage that is coming.

If you don't believe that, go into your local super market and yell at the top of your voice that paper money is an illusion and worth nothing, and only gold has real value/worth, and let me know the response you get :)

As for discussion of financial system alternatives, Ari has summed it up nicely with a floral touch(put a smile on my face first thing in the morning - thanks Ari!).


Belgian@ Free Willie#10070704/01/03; 16:28:49

Yes the ECB values it gold-exchange-reserves, at the end of each quarter at the marketprice.
75% of the world's exchange reserves are US$. If the dollar starts to depreciate (exchange rate/purchasing power) rapidly...all these CB dollar exchange reserves are devaluing. POG rises and goldreserves, marked at rising marketprices, do compensate for the loss on the dollar-reserves. Why would one stop marking to market ? The euro will have found strength from its value-rising goldreserves. Dollar decline will cause hyper-price-inflation as to catch up on decades of dollar-inflation. Further POG rises will soften the hyperinflation spill over to the euro-zone. Why should one stop a free gold system that supports one's currency ? And more especially so when other CBs decide to exchange their dollar-reserves for euro-reserves. The old gold-dollar-standard will be replaced by the euro-gold-concept. Past trade flows will alter into the opposite direction. The dollar block might take the, gold-associated, euro-reserve, into its own CB-reserves.

FW, I am not a blind follower nor fanatic believer in any euro dogmas. But the whole concept makes still a lot of sense to me. Especially when oil (and its future) is brought into the (euro-gold) equation.

What kind of legal/regulatory evidence are you expecting ?
One can hardly expect that the architects of the euro-concept in relation to what will happen to gold...are going to *publicize* what they have in mind. Did one had any indication that Nixon was going to close the gold-window in 1971 and therefor having the opportunity to position for a x25 POG explosion ? Or was the London goldpool, public evidence for the following gold-management ?

Is there black on white legal/regulatory, evidence, for the 3 decades Gold containment ?

We, the general public, are left with a WA/marking to market and a secret LBMA, going public in 1997, to make plausible conclusions or speculations...and why not even gambles.

IMO, the dying dollar has gold as antithesis and the emerging euro has Gold as a friend, supporter and desires to be associated with this "wealth" of ages. That's why I'm saying that the euro has no fear to mark its gold-exchange-reserves to market, already NOW, within a contained POG.
This is organized for the very probable future of a free goldmarket where Gold will be fully revalued after decades of dollar-enforced, containment.

Gold (and oil) is the political metal par excellence. In politics, everything is possible, anytime ! But political trends are detectable without very explicit legal and regulatory evidences. Just imagine that 1% out of the 2% US fortunes holding 80% of dollar US purchasing power, decide to buy only 1 kg of gold (=200 IBM shares) per year...just for fun ? They would take a whole year of new gold offer (2,500 tonnes) out of the market in one go ! Simple, back of an envelop, maths. Who is going to give us legal/regulatory, evidence on a golden plate, that would suggest a POG projection into the thousands ($/€) ?

@ Gondolin: Do you find a satisfactory answer to your question, in the above reasoning ?

R PowellCometose#10070804/01/03; 16:39:41

ALSO Can someone confirm that REFCO yesterday recommended buying SILVER ?????

From page 28 of the March 21, 2003 "Consensus"....

"Refco Global Research last stated, silver is near 4.40 support and looks over-sold. It is near the bottom of its Bollinger bands. Silver stands to benefit if gold can make headway. That said, the industrial outlook for silver remains suspect. Recent surveys suggest technology buyers are becoming less optimistic in their tech spending plans.
The prospect of war is a potential drag on travel, and so on the use of photographic film. In a risky trade we would buy 2 May silver at market. Risk close below 4.35 and expect 4.70."

Rich: Take this as you see fit. I see nothing there that really stands out. The Bollinger bands and oversold are technical indicators. Then comes the usual reference to suspect usage even though the supply/demand equation has been in a deficit since 1990. Then a reference to the fact that silver use is related to tech spending and photographic use and, of course, the obligatory connection to gold, namely, "Silver stands to benefit if gold can make headway."

However, I did mention this Refco recommendation as it is the first one that I can recall. Note also that they are not looking for a big move up. Like many big players, I believe that if Refco makes money in the commodities' game, it is by initiating tight stops in all positions while letting their winners run. If you make more on winning trades than you lose on losing trades, then, on net, being right only 50% of the time is enough. So, why do the research (which for most people is work). Just flip the coin and go! That is, it is their excellent money management that makes their net profits (again, IF indeed they are making money) rather than any great in depth research or better than average technical trading. It wouldn't surprise us, would it, if we found out that Refco makes its profits through commissions collected, not by intelligent trading?

Thanks for the Nevada silver coin news! Keep us informed!

steadyflowers ?#10070904/01/03; 16:42:24

aristotle with your recent comparison to flowers can i just be a seed? a seed to become a Eschsholtzia californica --- a golden popy,
silvercollectorSocrates964#10071004/01/03; 17:23:12

Every now and again a very good message comes out about inflation and value investing. Your latest is one of them, thanks.

I have tried to outline a similiar theme with little success a couple of times. Maybe I was too long winded.

Anyway, I have a question or two. I have imagined a straight line in the last 10 ten years representing, let's say, 'average' inflation of 2% per year Going to your toilet paper and beans theories and widening that to commodities and real estate etc. how does the 'inflation' of specfic assets plotted against the 2% line fair out?

I wish I could remember my old (very old) high school math to calculate compounded 2% inflation over 10 years. Let's say it's 40%. So what's a 'good deal', what's 'expensive'? Surely real estate is expensive, has it risen beyond the 40%. We know gold is cheap, it is less than 10 years ago.

Do we have any numbers than might show us udervalued/overvalued assets? There was a significant discussion some time ago that illustrated the '10 times' multiple going back to mid-70's. Is that also true of 10 years ago?


steady1st off this isnt an april fools joke#10071104/01/03; 17:29:01

regarding nevada coing silver cause the federal reserve is illeagal and the usa, specifically congres, has failed on its monetary authority.
i have dug deeper. after getting off the phone with the nevada legislature here is the skinny on ab532.
this bill was introduced by committie on constitutional amendments, there is no specific author the bill came from the committe.

all bills have to be out of committe by the 11th of april.

friday april 4th is the last meeting of the committie on constitutional amendments before this deadline. the bill will be discussed and voted upon on friday to get out of committie.

Mr. mortenson is the chair of the committe and he will convien the meeting within 30 min of the ending of the friday floor session. typically fridays floor sessions are lasting 30 min or so. now it gets better. if you want to listen to the debate of the committe u can thanks to the net. go here on the right side there is a link to live meetings listen or view. mr . mortensons aid informed me this meeting should be available.
this should be interesting to follow. does a state stand up to uncle sam and there allowing the federal reserve to contiue to print the dollar to worthlessness.

steadyi forgot the times in my excitment#10071204/01/03; 17:39:32

nevads floor session ends around 11:30a.m.pacific daylight time, the meeting of the committie on constitutional amendments will begin within 30 min of the ending of the floor session.

should ber interesting. how come no media has picked up on this. time to email the news outlets!
can a state take on uncle sam and win?

R PowellSteady (100711)#10071304/01/03; 18:05:54

Good piece of researching, excellent work!
Please keep us informed.

Daniel DruffGold Will Always Take Care of Itself#10071404/01/03; 18:17:23

"If you don't believe that, go into your local super market and yell at the top of your voice that paper money is an illusion and worth nothing, and only gold has real value/worth, and let me know the response you get :)" Golden Bear

"Frankly, I think you're naive to attack GATA. Assuming gold breaks free, Bill Murphy's great achievement will not be that he liberated the POG single handed (probably big Asian money that will), but that he offered the little guy an escape route from the financial gulag that US financial markets have become. I think he deserves enormous respect for this, if nothing else." Socrates964

GB, yelling at the top of your voice in the super market is akin to some of the presentations made by Bill Murphy, who refers to his act as, "pounding on the table". It was certainly effective as far as my personal position goes but now that we have exited the Accumulation Phase of this Bull Market in Gold we need a more civilized approach.

Gold should not be promoted as a financial weapon of our current enemies, which includes anarchists of all stripes, nor is its ascension in value relative to all the world's fiat due to war, plague, or any other calamity you can imagine. If for no other reason, gold will increase in value, relative to fiat, because said fiat is easier to produce than gold...and that is what politicians do. They bribe voters with "fake money" - read, fiat. And in so doing they wipe out the savings of unaware citizens.

Socrates964, oh but I do respect Bill's initial's his anti-Patriot act which offends me. He has disgraced himself, in my opinion. GATA needs a new leader regardless of my appreciation of Bill's past work.

The Federal Reserve System has to go...soon. And the sooner GATA promotes a new system, the better it will be. Rising prices and shortages are sure to arrive to the entire world. With as much fiat as there is floating around a hording mentality is sure to develop with a contraction of production. Don't let the scoundrels get away with price controls as a solution. Promote a "new" system to compete with the worn-out answers of the establishment. But do it nicely.


BulldogCanada's woes#10071904/01/03; 19:06:47

Contrary to most of the economies of the world we in Canada
are doing okay; however we are having other troubles--the Maritimes have been deluged in rain and have severe flooding, Toronto has quarantined thousands while trying to contain SARS, Air Canada goes to CCAA (bankruptcy protection)and we are having a blizzard in Alberta. It will disappear by the end of the week.
Since Canada went along with the U.N. and stayed out of the Iraqi conflict now we have a divided populace either with the U.S. or "agin" it. The Prez must know the rotten shape of things in the U.S. because this Iraqi war gamble is obviously for all the marbles. How do you take Baghdad with 5 million people a lot of whom are armed and not have mega "civilian" casualties? Impossible.
The Euro/Dollar/Oil scenario is playing out painfully before our eyes.

Golden BearDaniel Druff (msg#: 100714)#10072204/01/03; 19:31:02

"...but now that we have exited the Accumulation Phase of this Bull Market in Gold..."


My good man, we are at the dawn of Gold's re-ascension as the wealth preserver par excellence (not that it ever lost it, but in the masses' perception)... the Universe is cyclical in nature, and the wild excesses of the last few years will be purged without fail. The masses still don't understand, therefore, the accumulation phase is still very much alive.


PS. On your opinion of sector's comments being unpatriotic, it never ceases to amaze, how one's words can be interpreted so differently by others... I personally do not see any glee in his comments, just a projection of his thoughts about the possible future outcomes of actions taken in the present; thoughts which the mainstream media in the US would not dare to publish...

CytekGlobal Airline Crisis Takes Another Victim#10072404/01/03; 19:36:00

Global Airline Crisis Takes Another Victim
Tuesday April 1, 8:29 pm ET
By Greg McCune

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Air Canada, the world's No. 11 carrier, filed for bankruptcy protection on Tuesday and more major airlines announced cuts in jobs and flights to cope with the crisis in global aviation made worse by the Iraq war.

Never in the history of the aviation industry has it been hit with so many negative factors out of its control, and there are fears that more of the world's leading airlines could be forced into bankruptcy.

The spiral began with a slump in travel after the Sept. 11, 2001, hijack attacks in the United States, a slowdown in the world economy, a rise in aviation fuel prices, the outbreak of a new respiratory ailment in Asia that has further discouraged travel, and a war in Iraq that has inflamed the Middle East.

Air Canada cited all those setbacks in filing for protection under Canadian law on Tuesday, the first major airline to succumb to bankruptcy since the start of the Iraq war. Its move came just one day after the world's largest carrier, American Airlines, narrowly averted a similar fate by striking deals with major labor unions to sharply cut costs.

Shares in AMR Corp. (NYSE:AMR - News), American Airlines' parent company, surged 90 cents, or 43 percent, to $3 on the New York Stock Exchange (News - Websites) on Tuesday as investors were relieved that it had managed to avert a bankruptcy filing, at least for now.

But the union representing pilots at American Airlines said on Tuesday that about 2,500 pilots will be furloughed or retire over the next year as part of the deal with the airline.

American Airlines admitted on Tuesday it was in a weak financial state and its future prospects were uncertain. In a U.S. regulatory filing, the carrier said it would have to delay some debt and lease payments.

Cytek- Another one bites the dust. AMR has staved of the inevitable, but for how long. And what will those 2500 pilots do.

CometoseRICH and STEADY #10072504/01/03; 20:01:37

DoubleEagleNevada Assembly Bill 532#10072604/01/03; 20:03:41

Just read the full text of 532 on the Nevada Assembly web site. Wow. Made the hair on my mostly bald scalp tingle. Total repudiation of the Federal Reserve Act. Wonder what kind of pressure the feds will put on them to kill the bill? I could see a future in which a block of independent minded western states ginned up their own precious metal economy. All it takes is a few states to agree to trade their silver issues back and forth, and there you go.

I also thought it was very smart of whomever drafted the bill to put both a dollar amount and a weight/fineness figure on each coin. Opens up the possibility of 1oz Silver Eagles and Maple Leafs trading alongside the Nevada issues with the same purchasing power. Would love to see gold in standard weights come to the party as well, but I'll take what I can get.

-DoubleEagle (whose namesake didn't need no stinkin' Federal Reserve to be worth something.)

R PowellCometose#10072704/01/03; 20:15:01

My pleasure.

I'm still looking for any news that may tell us of silver trading on the Shanghai Exchange. I had heard rumors that today was the date to start, now (today) I've heard it may be as much a year away yet. :<) However, no one is offering any kind of official news or substantiation of any kind, only statements such as "according to my sources"... (Boy, I hate that one).

With the coming of Spring, my business should start to pick up soon. I'm thinking of offering a discount for bills paid in silver coin. What a bargin, I'll tell them, I'll pour and finish tonnes of concrete in return for a few pounds of silver! Hehehehe.....

R Powell21 mabry#10072904/01/03; 20:24:03

Back to Woodstock

Please let us know if you find any good (farmable with timber and water) government land for free or extremely low priced. I'll start searching for my copy of "The Whole Earth Catelogy". If I can't find mine, I'll ask Mr. Gresham if I might borrow his (I'll bet he's got one!) Maybe I'll try a sluice box instead of panning for flashes if I ever get back to the wild side.
steadymaybe those guys/gals in nevada read this and decided to do something about it!#10073204/01/03; 21:11:14

The original Mint Act, was passed on Thursday, January 12, 1792. This Act was drafted in Pursuance of the Constitution for the United States of America [See: Article VI, Clause 2] and provided for the minting of both gold and silver dollars under Section 9. This Act met all of the requirements of Article I, Section 8, Clause 5 and 6, and Article I, Section 10, Clause I. The issue of the United States being empowered to "emit bills of credit" was discussed in the Constitutional Convention on Thursday, August 6, 1787. The power and authority was denied to the general government upon good and sufficient grounds. It would take all of 75 years to subvert what the Constitution was designed to prevent and more: the erosion of confidence between man and man.

The issuance of paper as a "legal tender" and circulating medium of exchange did not occur until 1862 during the Civil War. The Congress authorized the emission of non-interest bearing Treasury notes and declared the bills of credit to be legal tender for all debts, public and private, with the exception of taxes on imports. The notes were deemed necessary to "float the debt of the United States" for the war effort. In short, the paper "green backs" were "printed" under pretext of "war powers".

On June 3, 1864, Congress passed "An Act to provide a National Currency, secured by a Pledge of United States Bonds, and to provide for the Circulation and Redemption thereof." This Act recreated the central banking system as a "National Association" which later evolved into the Federal Reserve Banks. All private bank notes issued under authority of the Act were "issued and circulated the same as money", had to be redeemable at "par value" (one-for-one) with the Coin, and were declared to be tender for the payment of all debts public and private under Section 23. "Pledging or hypothecating" any of the notes in circulation under this Act was prohibited under Section 37.

By 1908, the United States had accumulated a large deficit. Discussions had begun to surface concerning amendments to the Constitution regarding revenue and taxation. In 1909, Congress and the President passed the Corporate Tax Act of 1909 while knowing that the activity has previously been declared to be unconstitutional in Pollock vs. Farmers Loan And Trust Co., 187 U.S. 429 (1895). The Sixteenth Amendment was proposed by Congress on July 12, 1909. The Amendment was certified to be a part of the Constitution on February 25, 1913. The Constitutional impediment concerning State intervention in direct taxation has been removed, however it did not expand the taxing power of Congress beyond the limitations set forth in Article I, Section 8, Clause 1, and Article I, Section 9, Clause 4.

On December 23, 1913, Congress passed "An Act to provide for the establishment of Federal reserve banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford a means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes". The Act is commonly known as the "Federal Reserve Act". Some of the purposes for enacting the Federal Reserve Act were to:
(1) collect 94% of the "net earnings" of the Federal Reserve Banks under pretense of a "Franchise Tax" under Section 7;
(2) legalize and extend a "float" on the debts by reducing the backing or reserve requirements to 40% of the notes in circulation and transactions accounts under Section 11;
(3) authorize "hypothecation" of obligations including "United States bonds or other securities which Federal reserve Banks are authorized to hold" under Section 14(a); and,
(4) "establish branches in foreign countries or dependencies of the United States for the furtherance of the foreign commerce of the United States" under Section 25.

It is important to understand the term "hypothecation" as stated in Section 14(a) of the Act.

"1. Banking. Offer of stocks, bonds, or other assets owned by a party other than the borrower as collateral for a loan, without transferring title. If the borrower turns the property over to the lender who holds it for safekeeping, the action is referred to as a pledge. If the borrower retains possession, but gives the lender toe right to sell the property in event of default, it is a true hypothecation.
2. Securities. The pledging of negotiable securities to collateralize a broker's margin loan. Of the broker pledges the same securities to a bank as collateral for a broker's loan, the process is referred to as rehypothecation."
[Dictionary Of Banking Terms, Fitch, pg. 228 (1997)]

Section 16 of the Federal Reserve Act, which is codified at 12 USC 411, declares that "Federal Reserve Notes" are "obligations of the United States". The "full faith and credit" of the United States was thereby hypothecated and rehypothecated to the lending institutions for the issuance and emission of bills of credit as legal tender "for all taxes, customs, and other public dues". The paper in circulation and transactions accounts could then be inflated 60% and the purchasing power depreciated and reduced by an equivalent amount.

On June 17, 1917, Congress amended the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. Section 6 of the Act broadened the capacity of the Federal Reserve Banks to engage in foreign commercial transactions and joint ventures in foreign countries. Section 7 reduced the reserve requirements on transaction accounts and circulating currency to 35%. The authorized float and expansion of credit, by another 5%, created a reciprocal rise in the price of goods and services, and a depreciation in the purchasing value of the circulating medium of exchange. The cumulative total inflation and depreciation was now 65%.

The indiscreet extensions of hypothecated and rehypothecated credit, speculative investments, and issuance of fractional reserve paper enervated trade and caused the economic collapse known as the Great Depression. Under the Federal Reserve fractional reserve system about 600 banks per year failed from 1920 through 1929. The number of bank failures escalated to 1,345 in 1930, and to 2,298 in 1931. The number dropped to 1,453 in 1932, but skyrocketed to 4,000 in 1933. It is necessary to remember that the fractional reserve system paper was on a "float", however, the dollar was still made of gold and silver, and both the "Federal Reserve notes" and the "Treasury notes" clearly stated on their face that they were redeemable at par value upon presentment and demand.

Today, "Federal Reserve notes" are officially recognized as "SDR's" -- Special Drawing Rights under the amended Bretton Wood Agreements Act, Public Law 94-564. [See: Legislative History, Senate Report No. 94-1148, October 1, 1976] Quoting from the Legislative History, to wit:

"The dissolution of the monetary system created by the Bretton Woods Agreements can be traced to the early 1960's. The monetary system during this time made a de facto transition from a "gold standard" to a dollar standard . . . There were more dollars abroad than the U.S. had gold. The U.S. commitment to redeem international dollars for gold became a physical impossibility. The reality of dollar convertibility ended."

From the foregoing it can be seen that a "De Facto Transition" had occurred. In other words, de facto government operating under and according to the rule of necessity - no law.
Preceding the de facto transition, a number of other things had occurred. Pursuant to 22 USC 286, the President was authorized to accept membership for the United States in the International Monetary Fund ("The Fund"), and in the International Bank For Reconstruction and Development ("The Bank"), provided for by the "Articles of Agreement of the Fund" and the "Articles of Agreement of the Bank", as set forth in the "Final Act of the United Nations Monetary and Financial Conference" dated July 22, 1944, which are deposited in the archives of the Department of State. These Acts are commonly known as the Bretton Woods Agreements. They are international agreements. The Articles of Agreement assert that those holding public office could do not only what the delegated powers under the Constitution did not authorize, but what they forbid. In other words, Congress created these two entities and granted them the capacity to do what they were prohibited from doing directly. The complete debasement of the Constitutional Coin was effected and accomplished under the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Articles of Agreement.

Pursuant to 22 USC 286a, the President appoints the alien, corporate "Governor" to oversee the United States membership in "The Fund" and "The Bank". He is today commonly referred to as the "Secretary of Treasury." The Office of Secretary of Treasury was formerly, that is, prior to May 20, 1920, a cabinet level position in the Executive Branch. That is not now the case because the "Treasury" was abolished in 1920-21. This occurred following the unconstitutional and unlawful redelegation of authorized powers of Congress under the Federal Reserve Act in 1913, out of which there was created an "independent treasury" on May 20, 1920, in which the People's money was commingled. Thereafter the gold was systematically, and criminally, removed and transferred out of the country, eventually causing a "run" on the banks, and ultimately, the Emergency Banking Relief Act of March 9, 1933, 48 Stat. 1. War and Emergency Powers had worked in 1862, and again in 1933, to expand unauthorized power beyond Constitutional and statutory limitations and prohibitions. Like the economic emergency itself, the emergency executive power is still active and available to further the "systematic scheme".

On March 18, 1968, Congress passed "An Act to Eliminate the reserve requirements for Federal Reserve Notes and for United States Notes and Treasury Notes of 1890", Public Law 90-269, 82 Stat. 50. This Act was designed to remove the remaining reserve requirements on circulating notes and obligations. $1.3 billion in gold was "pledged" against "gold certificates" and held as reserves against circulating notes and obligations. Under this Act the gold certificates would be withdrawn and retired, then the gold would be considered as "free gold" and paid out to foreign interests at $35 per ounce. The monetary reserves of gold and gold certificates would be supplemented and then replaced "by the mechanism of special drawing rights (SDR's) within the framework of the IMF" [See: House Report 1095, pg. 1763] It was also known, at that time, that the continued expansion of circulating Federal Reserve Notes would use up the "free gold" in two years, however, the "new standards of international reserves and exchange" was right around the corner [See: House Report 1095, pg. 1780] The Federal Reserve Note, thereafter, met all of the qualifications of a worthless security under 26 I.R.C. 165(g). The action of disavowing and repudiating obligations in 1968, like those that occurred in 1933 and 1934, were given effect and compulsion. The system had become nothing more nor less than a "confidence game" devised to psychologically dupe the public who were left generally ignorant of the activities and known affects.

On June 19, 1968, only three months later, Congress passed the "Special Drawing Rights Act", Public Law 90-349, 82 Stat. 188. This Act amended the Gold Reserve Act of 1934. Under Section 2 of the Special Drawing Rights Act, the SDR's are "administered as part of the Exchange Stabilization Fund established by section 10 of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, as amended (31 USC 822a)." The operations of the Exchange Stabilization Fund and now the SDR's are under the "exclusive control of the Secretary of Treasury" and "are not reviewable by any other officer of the United States". Anything in the ESF remains in the Fund, for the use of the Fund. This new program is subject to the Articles of Agreement of the IMF in accordance with Section 3 of the SDR Act of 1968. Of course, the "Secretary of Treasury" is, in reality, the "Governor" of the IMF, and is not an officer of the United States. [See: Public Law 94-564, 90 Stat. 2660, Senate Report 94-1148, pg. 5942; 22 USC 286a]

Section 4 of the Special Drawing Rights Act sets forth the general protocols. The "Secretary of Treasury" [Governor-IMF] issues an international letter of credit called a "Special Drawing Rights Certificate" to the Federal Reserve Banks "in such form and in such denomination as he may determine". The SDR is deposited in the Federal Reserve Banks which in turn credits the account of the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) with Federal Reserve Notes in an amount equal to the value of the SDR certificate. SDR's became the "collateral security for Federal Reserve Notes". The term "dollar" was thereafter valued in direct and inseparable proportion to Special Drawing Rights, not to "dollars", gold and silver Coin. The "dollar" became mere "book entries in special accounts of the International Monetary Fund" under the United Nations. [See: Senate Report 1164, pg. 2105] In effect, the International Agreements had taken precedent over domestic limitations and obligations pursuant to the authority delegated by "We the People" in the ordained and established Constitution for the United States of America. The international organizations had gained economic control of the domestic monetary system, and would now make political decisions for the members. In common parlance, the Nation has been economically "overthrown" and bankrupted. Under "rule of instrumentality" the "United States" exists in pretense of name only, being the altered of the true principal and parties of interest, The Fund and The Bank. With the enactment by Congress of Public Law 95-147 on October 28, 1977, all financial institutions, banks and credit unions alike, were placed on the exclusive direction and control of the "Governor" of "The Fund" and "The Bank", i.e., the United Nations, which is the World Communist Movement. A foreign power now roosts and rules exclusively over each and every American. Recall that the operations of the Exchange Stabilization Fund and now the SDR's are under the "exclusive control of the Secretary of Treasury" and "are not reviewable by any other officer of the United States".

Me thinks your chicken is cooked unless this foreign entanglement and power is thrown off of our body politic.

May I interest you in a "home equity loan" from your "local" banker? How about a 30 year MORTgage? Or, a checking account to keep track of your SDR's? These banks with names like "KEY", "WELLS FARGO", "SEATTLE-FIRST", "WASHINGTON MUTUAL SAVINGS BANK" -- they just don't seem to be what they appear . . . do they?

Would you like to have some real money? Go look up 31 USC 5112 and the current pocket part, and then go talk with your local Coin shop dealer. You'll want to trade the worthless paper for American Gold Eagles and American Silver Eagles that have intrinsic as well as numismatic value and are a legal tender at their "buying sight rate" of exchange on the day of tender. You can thank the very Honorable Philip M. Crane of Illinois, who gave you the "American Gold Eagle Coin Act of 1985" [Public Law 99-185], and the "Liberty Coin Act" of the same year [Public Law 99-61] that you have the opportunity to now own real money.

Now you should have some idea what a dollar isn't: Federal Reserve Notes are not "dollars". Now you know "why" it is necessary that the U.S.A. get out of the United Nations!

Permission to repost granted with full disclosure/credits.
-/s/ John R. Prukop

"All laws which are repugnant to the Constitution are null and void."

--Marbury v. Madison,
5 U.S. (2 Cranch) 137 (1803)

CCW Coalition: Citizens For A Constitutional Washington
John R. Prukop, Executive Director
11910-C Meridian Ave. E., #142
Puyallup, Washington 98373
TEL: (253) 840-8071
FAX: (253) 840-8074
e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Black BladeFannie's Big Rate Bet Isn't Paying Off #10073304/01/03; 21:27:45


Fannie Mae's (FNM) net worth actually dropped in 2002 despite the firm's massive leverage, according to a closely watched balance sheet measure that portrays an alarming drop in shareholder wealth. Fannie's regular balance sheet, released quarterly, had already shown a massive decline throughout 2002 in shareholders' equity -- or assets minus liabilities -- as Fannie failed to financially insure itself against interest rate risk. But the company's supporters had hoped that a special version of its balance sheet, released yearly in its annual financial statement and designed to offer a more accurate portrayal of asset and liability values, would present a healthier picture. That didn't happen. This so-called fair-value balance sheet, released in a filing Monday, showed that the wealth left over for shareholders actually declined in 2002, falling 2% from the prior year to $22.1 billion. And if Fannie hadn't sneakily included a new asset called mortgage purchase commitments in the fair value balance sheet, shareholders' equity would've fallen far more steeply -- dropping some 12% to $20.5 billion. Clearly, if Fannie were the hedge fund its critics claim it to be, its managers would be looking for a job Monday after shortchanging shareholders so sharply.

Black Blade: No wonder a few months ago the Fed and the government is distancing itself from Fannie Mae by stating that investors should not consider this investment safe "government guaranteed" paper. Hmmm…

Black BladeGM, Chrysler Offer New Sales Incentives#10073604/01/03; 21:36:21


DETROIT (AP) -- DaimlerChrysler AG's Chrysler Group has followed General Motors Corp. in beefing up its incentives as automakers try to lure buyers at a time when consumer confidence is lagging. The sweetened deals come as sales have slumped in North America and the major automakers have scaled back production plans. Like GM, Chrysler said Tuesday it is offering zero-percent financing for five years on several vehicles, including the popular PT Cruiser. The German-American automaker on Tuesday also increased cash rebates on certain vehicles to as much as $4,500. The offers are good through April 30. GM, the world's No. 1 automaker, said Monday it was offering interest-free financing for up to five years on nearly every vehicle except the Hummer. GM's "Zero to Sixty" offer began Tuesday and runs through April. GM also is offering cash rebates of up to $3,000 on most models.

Black Blade: Desperate times call for desperate measures. Some economists are speculating that some automakers won't survive the "economic slump". At the top of the list is Ford. These rebates and other incentives eat into the bottom line. Simply put they have no pricing power, are smothering under massive debt, and are cutting costs by reducing production and laying off workers. Even so the consumer is tapped out. In a word – "Grim".

Mr GreshamLady Waverider, R Powell#10073904/01/03; 22:04:15

Fair Lady, hear hear! Or, as my first grader (and her friends) would cuttingly sum up the whole matter: "Bo-o-o-o-o-r-r-r-r-RING!"

R Powell -- Don't have a WEC, but I'd started thinking on making such a search. Think they're collectors' items by now? (BTW, last week I met a frizzy-haired peace-lovin' radical leftie couple sportin' a fine collection of Silver Eagles. Think there's more of 'em? P.S. I left them in that state, and didn't try to turn them on to the hard stuff...)

SundeckPlacer Dome Inc. cutting gold price hedging #10074004/01/03; 22:09:04

Placer Dome Inc. cutting gold price hedging


VANCOUVER (CP) - Placer Dome Inc., Canada's second-largest gold producer behind Barrick, says it will reduce its future price-hedging by 20 per cent this year, taking advantage of the precious metal's soaring spot price.

"Placer Dome expects to reduce its committed (hedging) ounces to below 10 million by Dec. 31," the company said Tuesday in a release. The firm reduced the committed ounces under its hedge program by 1.1 million during the first quarter.

Placer Dome had said in February it planned to cut its hedging program, which sets the future price and can benefit a producer when gold prices are declining or flat.

During the first quarter, the company converted 920,000 hedged ounces of gold committed for 2004 to 2006 to put options at a cost of $9.4 million US. An additional 170,000 ounces were delivering into existing contracts.

As of March 31, Placer Dome's maximum committed ounces totalled 11.5 million, or 22 per cent of gold reserves at an average price of $380 US an ounce.

Sundeck: An "average" committed price of $380 per ounce and still they are reducing hedges. Clearly they expect a bit more upside in the POG.

SundeckPlacer link#10074104/01/03; 22:11:40

Oops ... here is the link
Daniel DruffDoubleEagle#10074204/01/03; 22:26:36

Nevada Assembly Bill 532

Any challenge to The Federal Reserve System has to be good, imho.

And I'm especially happy to report that MIDAS has done a good job in mentioning this incredible news in his Appendix tonight.


mikal@Waverider#10074304/01/03; 22:27:26

Good to hear you.
TownCrierFrom Russia with(out) love...#10074404/01/03; 23:46:31

HEADLINE: CB currency policy will not receive high publicity

MOSCOW. April 1 (Interfax) -

...Asked why the Central Bank stopped intervening on the currency market on Tuesday and let the ruble gain 6 kopecks, [Deputy Chairman Konstantin] Korischenko repeated Lenin's words "Yesterday was early, tomorrow will be late."

-----(see url)----

I announced this change in Russian CB policy in a post several days ago -- letting the ruble gain without intervention. In other words, the CB is putting the curbs on its endless absorption of dollars as reserves for ruble emission.


SundeckAmerican unilateralism over bank capital rules is upsetting Europeans#10074504/01/03; 23:52:20


FOR the past five years, the world's financial regulators have been working on a new set of rules for bank capital, called Basel 2. The idea is to ensure that banks' capital matches the risks they carry: the riskier their loan books, the more capital they should hold. The rules are not due to be applied until January 2007, but if that deadline is to be met, Basel 2 must be practically set in stone by this May.

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, which is drawing up the rules, is pleased with the results of its third (and supposedly last) impact study. The study suggests that the complex new risk weightings to be applied to different types of asset will produce appropriate levels of capital for most of the world's banks.

Getting this far has taken a lot of sweat and horse-trading. American bankers and regulators have been at the forefront. American financial institutions have debated the rule changes as keenly as anybody. And Bill McDonough, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has cracked the whip as chairman of the Basel committee.

Imagine, therefore, the consternation of other committee members on learning how America plans to treat the new rulebook. Some American bankers and legislators are arguing that the proposed capital charge for operational risk—a fundamental part of Basel 2—needs to be completely rethought. Worse, American regulators intend to apply the new rules to fewer than a dozen of their banks. At a congressional hearing last month, they made it clear that the thousands of other American banks would continue to use the less complex existing rulebook, Basel 1. In fact, Basel 1 is little different from the lowest of Basel 2's three grades of sophistication. Nevertheless, the regulators believe that even this slight change would be a waste of money for America's smaller banks.

Sundeck: Could this represent a change of heart at the 11th hour, reflecting concern about the capital adequacy of American banks going forward?

Derivative exposure?

Deflation potentially eroding carrying value of assets as in Japan?

UsulAssembly Bill No. 532#10074604/01/03; 23:55:01

They think they can act against the interests of the Federal Reserve? That one gave me a good laugh.
TownCrierHEADLINE: Russian-Chinese economic relations gaining momentum#10074704/02/03; 00:01:08

BEIJING. April 2 (Interfax-China) - Economic relations between Russia and China are growing rapidly, a Russian diplomat has said.

...Russian exports to China had grown 27% and Russian imports had swelled 66%.

...the volume of Russian-Chinese trade reflected the resources and needs of both countries.

Russia and China are considering large oil and gas projects, including "plans for the construction of the Russia-China oil pipeline, and delivering up to 30 million tonnes of oil a year in it, and a gas pipeline from eastern Siberia to the northeast of [North Korea], and to consumers in third countries."

-----(see url for text)-----

Gee, when you see this it almost begs the question why isn't the Russian Central Bank still rabidly accumulating dollars (see prior post) with which to make settlement on its swelling imports from China? Could it be that China also has already reached their fill of this sort of greenish reserve asset?

It's been a nice free ride for the dollar while it lasted. (de Gualle would surely be amazed at the resilience of the coasting momentum.) The payback will probably be hell, though.


Black Blade"Barbarous Relic Files" - Investors seek security in jewellery#1007484/2/03; 00:10:58


Gold is often regarded as a safe haven in times of investment turmoil and there have been huge swings in the price of the precious metal during the build up to war in Iraq. The gold price has varied by more than $60 an ounce - or about 20% - in recent weeks.

"It's the only currency which is not issued by any individual government so it is internationally anonymous, internationally portable," said Rhona O'Connell from the World Gold Council. "People who live in politically risky countries or war-torn countries... know that if they need to flee in times of crisis, gold is probably the most safe thing that they can take with them because it's the most readily acceptable form of currency in another part of the world," she said. "The vast majority of physical purchasing interest is concentrated from the Middle East right the way through to the Far East in terms of people who buy on a daily basis," Ms O'Connell said. Buyers in first world countries purchase mostly small investment bars or coins. But jewellery is more popular in places like India and the Far East. Ms O'Connell said it is important to remember the jewellery purchased in these regions is high grade.

Black Blade: Over the next couple of months is the peak of "Wedding Season" in India. No one would think of marriage in India without gold as a gift.

TownCrierHurdles falling for China's gold market#1007494/2/03; 00:14:01

(April 02,2003 )(China Daily) -- The abolition of barriers affecting gold purchases and gold product processing and distribution on Monday has been hailed as a significant step by the government to liberalize the domestic gold market, following the establishment of the Shanghai Gold Exchange last year.

...The People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, on Monday announced that companies interested in purchasing, processing, wholesaling and retailing gold would no longer need approval from the official body.

Many processors and dealers are hoping to become members of the gold exchange, which was set up last November ... Currently, the gold exchange has 108 members limited to spot transactions.

-------(see url for text)-----

Gold market gains additional footing in China. This has been a reform priority. Can you imagine why? I knew that you could.


Black Blade"Barbarous Relic Files" - Gold smuggling hits Ethiopia#1007504/2/03; 00:18:56


Local gold diggers often sell on the black market. Ethiopia's drought-hit economy is losing $30m (£19m) a year from gold smuggling, its government believes. Up to 3 million grammes are leaving the country every year, according to Khasu Tadesse, head of the Mines Ministry's project co-ordination department. Local diggers throughout Ethiopia are selling on the black market to traders from neighbouring Sudan, Kenya and Somalia, he said.

Black Blade: Sure is a lot of effort expended for a "barbarous relic". Hmmm…

TopazBonds and Gold.#1007514/2/03; 03:46:05

Again we saw a Dollar weakening to coincide with Q1 reporting ( Dow life support...albeit a more tentative effort than Q2/Q4 '02)...and judging by the Gold price, $ is now again in the ascendancy.
$/E parity @ 320 Gold or 4.65% Long Bond Yield (epic Triple Bottom) time will tell.
Short T's (the haunt of the Fed) have all but called a rate-cut...but Mr G stays mum, won't be for long though imo.

BelgianTen years back....#10075204/02/03; 07:32:59

In 1993 we had a POG low of 327$, together with an €(ecu)/$ exchange rate at 1,07-1,10.
Both figures, 327$ and 1,07 are exactly the same as today, 10 years later.
From these two bottoms in 1993, POG ran to 390$-412$ and €/$ ran from 1,7 to 1,30-1,45 !

The main difference between today and 10 years ago is :
W've broken two, ten years, declining resistance lines in €/$ exch. rate and POG !

POG=327$ and €/$=1,07 are two significant supports for the rising patterns of Gold and euro. (idem for POO=25$)

My FWIW technical interpretation of those 3 analog (POG/€-$/POO) 10 years chart-patterns : The 10 year general down-pattern has been broken and strongly suggests that this break is corresponding with the first bear-leg of the stockmarkets. Whatever the rebound (technical) of of the stockmarket and the retreat of POG/€-$/POO, might be...the original rising patterns of POG/€/POO might probably resume, later on...corresponding with the second bear leg of the stockmarkets, to complete the gigantic ABC down-pattern ending in a stock-crash-melt down ? Analog with the huge ABC down pattern for the dollar-index (NDX) from its ATH of 1985 (now already in leg C down). Or the final crash of the dollar-reserve, finally initiating hyper-price-inflation.

IMVVVHO, the major moves are intact, despite the possible misleading zig-zag ups. NIA !!!

As K. Richebacher keeps on repeating : There are NO profits anymore (3% of GDP and still declining). That's why those IRs must decline also to avoid a total collapse of investment in overvalued stocks with declining profit-base.
Rising IRs for debt-paper, percepted as carrying less risk than stocks, will take confetti out of stocks that cannot manage to have as high profits as bonds. So far we haven't broken the 10 year declining patterns in IRs (bondprices-rise) from there 1994 hiccup-highs (corresponding with last POG-high of 412$).

My conclusion : As soon as the down-trend in IRs is broken...the dollar will crash. Today the European IR on money deposits declined 0,25% to 1,75%.
The financial masters will probably wait to rise IRs when they can, succesfully, sell the perception that everything is turning around for the better. This must probably coincide with a (false)(temporary) succes story of the Iraq-ME, affair ???

FWIW !!!

mikal@Belgium#10075304/02/03; 07:47:06

The FED has room to lower rates, and today bonds are lower in part to expectations of an intra-meeting rate cut. And they could cut, citing worse than expected economic data and war-damaged sentiment. Even the SARS virus. Then of course, they are committed to "reflate" against deflation, especially with stratospheric debt and derivatives everywhere and stuffed in closets.
This makes the dollar bear trend more enthusiastic. Only PM's would seem to tame him now.

mikalCaveats#10075404/02/03; 07:55:38

The market's mood changes
Hopes that war will be short reemerge Wednesday, giving stocks a boost.
April 2, 2003: 8:43 AM EST
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Staff Writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) -Excerpts:
"The question for traders now is whether this will be the final mood swing before the last shot gets fired. The memory of how stocks rallied in the run up to and first days of the war, only to fall when the war began to go less swimmingly than investors had first assumed, still stings.
Nor do traders have any real sense of what the war's aftermath will look like, since everything seems so dependent how the war proceeds. Will anger in the Arab world lead to fresh tensions, and threaten new conflicts? Will the economy, which appears on the brink of recession, revive as businesses and consumers heave a collective "phew" when the war ends? Since those questions all seem absolutely unanswerable, Wall Street has been reduced to trading on however the war seems to be going. "I don't know that anyone is looing at the fundamentals," said Ruffat."

21mabryfed#10075504/02/03; 08:55:12

Does the Fed really think it would help lowering rates? If they do they are fooling themselves.Anybody who has wanted to borrow has by now,banks and other lenders will not reduce their loan rates any more.All the fed will do is hurt fixed income investors,and drive more money from the U.S.
Old YellerIt's the debt'stupid#10075604/02/03; 09:03:28

Trade and C/A deficits do matter.

What the government won't tell the people about the
real dangers the US and world economy face.

GondolinBelgian 100707#10075704/02/03; 09:34:44

Thanks for your response. Your reasoning is spot on again. As usual each enlightenment I see herein poses further questions. As a recent lurker, having just dived headlong into the archives of ANOTHER on the forum, I can see I have a great deal of back catalogue reading to catch up on, which I think I shall immerse myself in to find a few answers to questions I have which occur during my daily visits to USAGOLD. Got gold and the more I read the better it feels.
Socrates964Silvercollector#10075804/02/03; 09:36:15

Just saw your post. Rather than write an essay on hyperinflationary dynamics, let me just say this:

Asset returns under inflation is a bit like the behavior of mass/time in the special theory of relativity - the distortions only become substantial at very high speeds/rates of change of price.

The US has enjoyed low inflation for years since, as one writer put it (Can't remember who) - The world trade system essentially consists of the US producing dollars and the rest of the world producing things). Now, if these dollars are no longer accepted at face value there is a sea-change and the $ becomes different only in degree (rather than nature) from the pesos, roubles, lira, cruzeiros of this world.

The $ then crashes to earth in the sense that it is no longer painless to print up the stuff ad infinitum - the international markets take note and mark down the exchange rate accordingly.

For a government in a corner, however, this is not necessarily a bad thing since nothing kills outstanding debt like inflation. Since most US voters are debtors, it has always seemed blindingly obvious to me that when push comes to shove, the US will opt for inflation rather than deflation.

In this sense, it may decide to default on its international debt - not by refusing to pay interest, but simply by inflating away. This puts the Chinese/Arabs/etc. of this world in a bind - they are going to get stiffed on their dollar holdings - so do they make a virtue of necessity and carpet bomb the US financial markets with US government debt in the hope they bring about regime change or give the US enough time to wriggle out of their predicament? In their shoes, I would take the view that Wall Street/the Fed is still prepared to put a great deal of effort into keeping up appearances, and would use this to sell down longer-dated bond futures (and maybe even buy a few bonds to stop the cash market from crashing) and then as the futures mature, just deliver the underlying and repeat this over and over again. It should be evident that this is a trigger for inflation in so far as the Fed will probably print more money to mop up this torrent of bonds since the alternative is to let interest rates spike at the long end and crucify anyone with long-term floating rate debt (e.g. real estate) - the political price of which still seems too high (although I may be proved wrong on this point if a consensus forms for 'regime change' in the US). I tend to take the view that the variable that will give is the dollar rather than the level of interest rates. Indeed, it is baffling to me why any non-US investor would want to hold US government bonds right now.

As per your question - inflation has not been a concern for the last 15 years or so. I think investors will have to worry about it going forward due to the above dynamics.

A key feature of hyperinflation is the divergence in relative prices (albeit cyclical) as everyone tries to beggar their neighbours. Taken to its extreme, there is no best investment - you just have to keep trading the fluctuations, so that it's bonds this week, gold the next, stocks the week after that, etc.

In this situation, it is best to define your own inflation index (based on the cost of your essential inputs) rather than depend on the government to do it for you.

In general terms, however, stocks become inflation proxies in so far as they can mark up their prices in line with inflation. The best proxies are usually companies supplying essential products manufactured from inputs priced in local currency and financials that don't do any lending but just play the markets, but the rule is that you have to trade everything.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...#10075904/02/03; 09:57:47

Q. In your book, The ABCs of Gold Investing: Protecting Your Wealth through Private Gold Ownership you start the chapter by saying "Who you do business with is one of the most important aspects of gold investing." Why is that?

MK. Most, if not all, of the progress an investor makes towards realizing his or her goals with respect to gold ownership hinges on that relationship. Unbiased, objective advice from one's gold advisor is a key element. So are market information and education. Pricing, product selection, fulfillment and on-going support also rely on that relationship. Above all, it is extremely important for gold buyers to match their objectives with the type of gold they buy. Positive results in all of those areas depend upon a strong relationship with a gold firm. That is why it is important to spend some time finding the right one.

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

MK. The biggest trap investors fall into is buying a gold investment that bears little or no relationship to his or her objectives. Take safe haven investors for example. That group makes up 90% of our clientele, and probably a good 75% of the current physical gold market. Most often the safe-haven investors simply want to add gold coins to their portfolio mix, but by the time they finish talking with a typical national firm, they might end up in a leveraged gold position, exotic rare coins, or being diverted into silver or platinum. Others drift into gold stocks or gold futures which in reality are proxies for real gold ownership and could actually act opposite the intent of the investor. There's nothing wrong with any of these non-physical investments per se, it's just that none of them is really a safe-haven. The investor should bear this in mind. The question investors must always answer for themselves is "How will this investment serve me should the economy or financial markets suffer a major disruption?"

LeighWar Profiteers#10076004/02/03; 10:54:14

Just received this e-mail from The Liberty Committee.

April 2, 2003

Wars cost money. The president wants $62,409 billion for military activities in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom." That amount is part of the so-called "Wartime Supplemental" bill that is being hastily put together so that it can be voted on sometime tomorrow.

But the total funds in the bill have already risen to $74.7 billion. With every passing hour, it seems that some new spending that bilks taxpayers and has nothing to do with the war is being added.

No one in political life wants to be called unpatriotic, particularly during times of war. What can you do when your elected representatives take advantage of America being at war to add on unrelated spending that:
1. The president won't veto because he urgently needs to pay for the war;
2. congressmen won't vote against, for fear of being called unpatriotic;
3. the media won't report, so few people will know about; and
4. that taxpayers can't do anything about anyway?

And just to seal the deal, they want to throw in a multi-million dollar payoff as hush money to the House of Representatives.

These are patriots? In times gone by, mercanaries who did a lot less than this to take advantage of war would have been considered "war profiteers" and would have been taken out and hanged. How refreshing.

Now, billions of dollars to expend unrelated governmental programs and special-interest payoffs will help re-elect these same types of scountdrels masquerading as modern-day members of Congress.

What's in this bill outside the president's request for $62,409 billion to fund the war? Plenty. Here are some examples:

1. $3.2 billion for an airline bailout.
2. $250 million for Department of Agriculture grants.
3. $69 million for Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust.
4. $11 million for salaries and expenses for the House of Representatives (they already gave themselves a pay raise).
5. $5.5 million for the Library of Congress.
6. $6.8 million for the Congressional Research Service and General Accounting Office.
7. $16 million to research Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome.
6. $100,000 for the U.S. Court of International Trade.
7. $165 million for the Afghanistan Freedom Support Act.

The bill also includes $8 billion in foreign aid:
1. $700 million in "economic assistance" for Jordan;
2. $500 million in "economic assistance" for Egypt;
3. $1 billion in "economic assistance" for Turkey;
4. $127 million for "economic growth" in Afghanistan;
5. $1 billion in "military assistance" for Israel;
6. $175 million in "military assistance" for Pakistan;
7. $170 million to "train the Afghan National Army;"
8. $406 million for Jordan...and the list goes on.

How can they get away with this? Because the drum beat has already started. Who would have the courage to vote against all this unrelated spending when that "No" vote will be turned against them as a refusal to support our troops at war?

It's up to you. The politicians are up to their same old tricks, this time taking advantage of Americans whose lives are in jeopardy on the battlefield. A clean bill to fund the president's request in support of the war could be submitted and approved, but the politicians can't pass an opportunity to put their hands in our pockets.

Please contact your congressional delegation to help give them the courage to do the right thing. Go to

Kent Snyder
The Liberty Committee

Daniel DruffAristotle#10076104/02/03; 11:02:55

With thanks to Old Yeller for the Levy article


This note has identified a major strategic predicament for the U.S economy. The most likely consequences of the massive and growing leak out of the circular flow of income will be, given present national and international policies, that there will be no proper recovery from the recent recession; and that this stagnation will eventually have grave consequences for the rest of the world, which has come to look to the U.S to give it momentum. A number of solutions have been outlined, but none of them can be relied on and some of them carry serious disadvantages. At some stage it will have to be recognised that a new world solution must be found." Wynne Godley, Levy Economics Institute

Note: "...a new world solution must be found."

At some point, in the not too distant future, our financial managers must realize that The Federal Reserve System and all other fiat originating central banks must be deposited into the wastebin of bad ideas. A monetary system using Fiat for credit, but obviously not as a store of value, would facilitate responsible citizenship rather than credit induced spending sprees leading to all sorts of excesses.


balzacBLOOMBERG LETS US DOWN#10076204/02/03; 11:13:15

This AM Bloomberg changed their web page and omitted gold from the commodities. Plus a lot of detail that I needed.
Any suggestions on another web page that gives everything plus gold???

Thanks Balzac

MKDD: "There but for the grace of God, goes God."#10076304/02/03; 11:31:08

You may be interested to know that some in the central bank community are still not convinced that the modern central bank carries any advantages over the concept of a currency board on the monetary side with a balanced budget amendment on the fiscal side. Paul Volker, for one, comes to mind, and I wonder where Greenspan would come down on the issue if push came to shove. I suppose it would depend upon if you were address Alan Greenspan, the central banker, or Alan Greenspan, the economic philosopher. I don't think we have to re-invent the wheel to achieve something workable. ANew Bretton Woods, for example, is unnecessary in my mind (much like going to the UN to ask permission to carry out US foreign policy). Ultimately you get bogged down in special interests, the system created is full of leaks, and ultimately it's doomed to failure. For the United States, I would rather seem something constructive done with our own system and then go from there. I saw in the Financial Times this morning that some in the international economic community believe that an economic conference of the G7 (or G8) would be beneficial given the highly stressed world economy. Allusions were made to the 'common interest', 'common problems', 'common ground.' Under the circumstances, and given the the strains between Europe, the United States and Asia, such a meeting might be about as productive as our last noteworthy go-around at the UN. Though the need is pressing, this many not be the best time for this sort of thing.

Reading Yergin's "The Commanding Heights" for more background (history) on this issue as I, like you, and many others sense a need. Great quote from Winston Churchill at the beginning of that book with reference to Sir Stafford Cripps who headed up nationalized British industries after World War II:

"There," said Churchill, "but for the grace of God, goes God."

That about sums up where you end when you economic policy is changed in times like these -- the tilt inexorably is to the left, central planning, et al. It's in our best interest to avoid international economic arrangements at this time, I would think.

AristotleBravo, Daniel!#10076404/02/03; 11:37:28

"...A monetary system using Fiat for credit, but obviously not as a store of value, would facilitate responsible citizenship..."

That's a great start!!!!!! Better still, I think we can get there fairly easily from here if we're willing to take the direct route. But, if you (we) wanna let ourselves be distracted and try to tear down or abolish the Federal Reserve as part of the course to gettin there, we'll all be hopelessly tied up in red tape. I think if you try to get to the root of the problem, you'll find it isn't the Fed as an institution, but rather it's paperGold, that is, derivatives. Yes? No?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Daniel DruffUsul#10076504/02/03; 11:40:43

Don't Give Up

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Usul (04/01/03; 23:55:01MT - msg#: 100746)
Assembly Bill No. 532
They think they can act against the interests of the Federal Reserve? That one gave me a good laugh.

The Fed has got to go...but it won't go quietly. And The Freedom Fighters of Nevada will go down as The Point of the Sword in some of our efforts to improve our economic system.

To the authors and supporters of AB 532, I say, all freedom loving people around the world salute you!

If you will only maintain the demeanor of the soft-spoken and polite grandfather, maybe the kids will listen to you.


Daniel DruffMK#10076604/02/03; 12:05:06

All citizens have the right to make suggestions here and there...especially in the States. The timing for implementation of a theory will never be "the right time" as far as the ongoing establishment is concerned. If that's what you're saying, in part, I certainly agree.

MK, many of us here are not revolutionaries but we are amature theorists. If you could help us see things as they presently exist, our direction would improve. The first thing we need, imo, is a refresher course on "Seniorage" (spelling deficiency, sorry): What it means and how it works...I think it was Randy who put forth an excellent presentation...but I can't find it. Maybe it was not Randy, maybe you wrote it.


Usul@Daniel Druff #10076704/02/03; 12:08:08

I fear that it will only be after wholesale economic ruin that a new gold standard will have been established, perhaps "free gold", and then people will look back in history and say "Bravo to those Nevada pioneers; would that the principles of AB532 had been widely adopted before it was too late".

In history, events like the South Sea Bubble, the John Law episode, the Weimar inflation, Argentina's recent banking crisis, show us that economies are often allowed to run to the limit and collapse before appropriate remedial action is taken.

J-BullionBloomberg drops Gold#10076804/02/03; 14:07:18

Bloomberg dropped Gold from the commodities section, because they realize that Gold and Silver are money. LOL.
Daniel DruffAristotle#10076904/02/03; 14:16:43

"I think if you try to get to the root of the problem, you'll find it isn't the Fed as an institution, but rather it's paperGold, that is, derivatives. Yes? No?" Aristotle

Yes, if by that you agree that derivatives, paperGold, or any instrument, which demands the guarantee of a human being to achieve its value, is actually counterfeit money. The Fed is the institution who controls the printing presses...they are a professional and legal counterfeiting outfit. They are simply doing their thing, as the kids would say. They inflate the money supply. And you know the rest of the story.

Wait until you see the hurdle of "seniorage" ahead of us.

Usul (04/02/03; 12:08:08MT - msg#: 100767)
@Daniel Druff

"...Bravo to those Nevada pioneers; would that the principles of AB532 had been widely adopted before it was too late". Usul

Ari, will you join us in a cheer for The State of Nevada?


WaveriderVIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT #10077004/02/03; 14:20:33

"The U.S. economy remains weak and the toughest battles for coalition forces lie ahead in the battle for Baghdad as the likelihood of chemical weapon use and urban street fighting increases as the forces inch toward the Iraqi capital. Yet the global equities markets surged on the belief that the end of the Saddam regime is near and all will be well soon and somehow the global economy will suddenly recover. All these events took attention away from the precious metals markets. Even so, no one is discussing how the bill will be paid when the war comes to a conclusion, an occupying army must remain in place to ensure security, and the ultimate costs of reconstruction. Meanwhile the U.S. current account deficit rises daily and everyone, government, corporations and consumers are mired under crushing debt. The question must be asked – is the U.S. dollar really that much stronger than other world currencies and what does that say about the other major currencies?

mikal@J-Bullion #10077104/02/03; 14:23:53

If this is a permanent move of Bloomberg's, it resembles the way television news is edited during wartime. Gold volatility in the future will be unsettling to certain viewers. Maybe they will edit out the layoffs too.
Rather than stomach the carnage and confront the stark reality, the socialist media will shelter us.
We can still change the channel can't we? With 200+ cable channels to choose from, we're more sophisticated than ever.

AristotleDaniel,#10077204/02/03; 14:47:29

No cheer for the would-be Nevada lawmakers from me. That bill isn't much more than a passing novelty, and if they're taking it seriously, Scott Adams could have a field day with all those guys as new cast members for Dilbert.

I think somebody there is just placating a constituent or two by going through the motions. The only thing, if any, that'll pan out is something that even a souvenir shop would struggle to move out the door.


Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Black BladeHome foreclosures soar 38%#10077304/02/03; 15:38:12,1299,DRMN_414_1857528,00.html


Home foreclosures in the Denver area rose by 38 percent in the first quarter compared with the first three months of 2002. Public trustees in the metro area reported they have begun processing an estimated 1,974 foreclosures so far, compared with 1,433 in the first three months of 2002. It's a trend that has been growing with the bad economy. Last year, foreclosures accounted for about 1.1 percent of all the homes on the market, while in 1988 they accounted for about 3.8 percent.

Gary Bauer, a real estate broker and consultant, said he expected foreclosures to be even higher. "I would have thought they would have been 50 percent to 60 percent higher," Bauer said. "Given how bad the economy is and how many people are unemployed, I thought it would be up a lot more in the first quarter."

Black Blade: A disturbing trend that is felt in many regions of the US. That the deflation of the real estate bubble is now being discussed in the financial media such as CNBC it is now becoming more a public concern. It will get much worse as the economy continues to slip deeper into depression. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months’ expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

Black BladeFirst blows hit US economy#10077404/02/03; 15:48:12


The war on Iraq is already beginning to affect the health of the US economy, research shows. Economists have long warned that a protracted war is likely to have a significant impact on the global economy and the US in particular. But new research suggests that the US economy is already suffering just 13 days after war began.

Black Blade: The problems in the US economy have been evident for the last three years and will likely last several more years. The problem now is soaring debt and rising unemployment. It's going to get very ugly better it gets any better (if it does). The war is just the "add on" effect that pushes the US further in debt. But war is the latest fashionable excuse for the "economic downturn".

Black BladeState bankruptcies jump 26%#10077504/02/03; 15:58:32,1299,DRMN_4_1857529,00.html

Unemployment, credit-card debt fuel Q1 individual filings


Colorado bankruptcy filings rose 26 percent during the first quarter of the year, compared with the same period last year. The U.S. Bankruptcy Court here saw filings rise to 5,586 from 4,430. The big jump came among Chapter 7 liquidation filings, with new filings for Chapter 11 business reorganizations dropping from 31 to 15. "My practice is up 50 percent to 100 percent over a year ago, in the area of bankruptcies," said Denver attorney Glenn Merrick, of Brega & Winters PC.

Continued unemployment combined with high credit-card debt seem to be fueling the jump in filings by individuals. There may be another contributing factor, one bankruptcy lawyer said. Bankruptcy reform has been debated and proposed in Congress for several years, but the House of Representatives recently passed a bill that would affect the ability of consumers to file, said Bart Burnett, a partner at Pearson, Horowitz & Poskus in Denver.

Black Blade: Put the family home at risk and take out more equity, but wait, foreclosures are rising too. This is another disturbing trend nationwide. Take heart – Al and the boyz at the Fed say it's only a "soft patch". Hmmm…

steady aristotle ......the bill>#10077604/02/03; 16:00:38

like you i think that they are just going thru the motions. nothing will come of it except this... especially if it makes it out of committie friday, that a discussion will rise up, one that has probably been hashed over here a hundred times over, about the legality of the federal reserve. for a state legislature to consider a bill that says the fed is illegal and that the congress has failed in its role as the issuer of the currency money ( {property? } hahah just kidding). is significant as with the internet the number of individuals who can participate freely in the debate or follow the debate here silently increases the awarness about such a situation. does it matter if the system trys to take the fed on or not. no i dont think it does, as the fed is the system so the system cant beat it. but individuals taking the fed on by finding alternatives to the federal reserve note will, especially physical gold in posession will. like many small holes in there dams, there will just be to many golden leaks to prevent the resevour from being drained to empty. maybe this debate will lead into a debate about why silver? why not gold like we us to do? so maybe there goal is to plant the seed and let it germanate, and watch the debate begin.
unlike you i give them a standing ovationfor doing this. they are causing individuals like yourself and others to take a position on a monetary policy something the fed really doesnt do they just say here, this is what we are doing and if u dont like it to bad, heck they dont even face voter pressure like nevada legislatures will come next election.. can u imagine the phone calls to be made if the bill get out of committie? they are showing that hey yes there are alternatives available to the federal reserve note, we want our alternative to be silver.i allready know what camp you are in. im sure our international members of this form are watching. i wonder if they are silently sayng to themselvs hey u dont need silver we got the euro as your alternative to the federal reserve notes.
aristotle... i know, i know... gold get u sum while its still light for the price! :+)

steadyis nevada starting a new trend? when will it get to the county then local level.#1007774/2/03; 16:09:04

are states who are seeing national interventions in markets and now with international co-operation (japan, usa) just following the trend established by the big boys? will counties be next? (jokingly)

Systematic Asset Market Intervention is Coming To a Central Bank Near You Very Soon
On March 28th The Bank for International Settlements in Basel Switzerland, the central bank for central banks all over the world held a conference titled: Conference on "Monetary stability, financial stability and the business cycle".

It as rather lengthy but can be found at for those interested. It is essentially devoted to the very discussion we have been having for quite some time. That is the relationship between monetary policy and the economic cycle. For those of you looking for a more in depth analysis of this than I have the time to get into on the air should read it. It is, for the most part, very easy reading.
The nature of the debate being had among monetary leaders all over the world is how to change the monetary model should it fail to stop the deflationary pressures building around the world AND facilitate an economic resurgence.
Roger Arnold

cont. @ link

Black BladeBoston Fed's Minehan Says U.S. Economy has `Softened' in Recent Months #1007784/2/03; 16:14:13


Waltham, Massachusetts, March 31 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy is still struggling through a ``soft patch'' and the outlook for growth isn't clear, in large part because of the Iraq war, said Cathy Minehan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. ``The national situation remains uncertain,'' Minehan said in the text of remarks to the Associated Industries of Massachusetts and ACG Boston technology and economic outlook conference. ``Recent data have suggested that the `soft patch' that began in early 2003 remains,'' although she said many of the economic indicators in the first months of the year have been ``clouded'' by bad weather and ``geopolitical concerns'' -- the Fed's language for the war in Iraq.

Black Blade: "Soft Patch" eh? Looking at today's stock market you wouldn't know it. But trading volumes are not consistently high and are spotty at best. Even Goldman Sachs is firing more equities staff today. CNBC's Bob Pisani complains that when he calls contacts on Wall Street they are no longer there and have been replaced. It does not look like a temporary "soft patch" if even the pros are making such sweeping changes. The individual investor is sitting this one out. The economic data is horrible. Capital expenditures are just not happening and are not likely to happen either. Inventories are building and production will have to slow until sales pick up. There is no need to increase capex. "Soft Patch" is a gross understatement.

Off to the gym!

Black BladeUnderstanding the States' Budget Crisis#1007794/2/03; 16:28:58;jsessionid=m5z0n6z871?storyId=297097


One issue dominates U.S. state capitols these days, and it isn't the war with Iraq -- it's the gap between services expected of states and the constitutional requirement of every state but Vermont to balance the budget. In a five-part series of articles, looked at the issue in depth: What the governors are saying; who's affected; the impact on education; how states got in their present fix; and what they can do about it.

Black Blade: Articles on state budget crises (see link). This is spreading as fast as SARS. It really comes down to spending like drunken sailors on shore leave and not saving when times are good. Don't get into your own budget crisis, preserve wealth by accumulation of tangible secure assets like precious metals.

Kev@ Belgian #100659 , Mr Gresham #100628 (the Gold of Belgium's Central Bank)#1007804/2/03; 17:04:59

I was able to ask some questions about gold on the annual meeting on Monday. Since all questions of all shareholders (incl. interventions Deminor & lawyer Modrikamen) were brushed aside with an extremely high dose of arrogance and ivory tower attitude, I actually was thinking whether it was still useful to even try to ask the questions I prepared about gold. But I gave it a shot anyway after about five hours of the marathon meeting.

I kind of wrapped my first question in a story of unstable geo-political situation (war in Iraq etc.) and also something the former Governor of the BNB said in a television show about two years ago. I mentioned that in other countries (I referred to Switzerland) politicians were asking questions about the location of the country's national gold reserve. I told that in a television show in 2001 the former Governor of the BNB declared that he once was in New York where the gold (or at least a part of it) of Belgium and Germany was stored at the time. So I asked "Is part of the gold reserve of BNB still stored in the US?" and "Are there other countries where some of the gold reserve is stored?" The Governor actually – to my surprise – thought it was a nice question and started smiling and mumbling something. Then he said "Well, you actually give part of the answer yourself; who am I to contradict the former Governor" (i.e. viscount Mr Verplaetse). Than someone of the Directors confirmed that the greater part of BNB's gold is stored in the UK, while 'another' part in the US. I immediately replied by stating the/my conclusion "So none of the gold is stored in Belgium?" And I repeated that question two or three times because they were looking at me like "shit what have we told now". The Governor mumbled "Well, maybe 2 or 3 kilograms".

So that's great, right?! All of our (remaining) 258tons of gold is "safe" in the UK and US... ahum...

I immediately started to ask a question on gold loans and swaps. I already saw Mrs. – bulldog ("taisez-vous!" ; "shut up!") – Masai of the Board shaking her head and trying to say something to the Governor. But I continued reading my question while referring to exact pages of annual reports of other European central Banks that do give some figures (although not extensively) in their annual reports about loans/swaps. The Governor said that he didn't know that some other Central Banks gave those numbers, but that he would review it and possibly add it to the annual reports in the future.

I didn't want to push my luck any further so I said "thank you very much". I had lots of other questions of course (concerning loans/swaps, WA, etc.) but the atmosphere of the whole day was already very hostile and I thought I had already uncovered something valuable that I could use later. The Belgian press did not pick it up as important news of the day; moreover a journalist of the leading financial newspaper wrote that the oral questions (first there were dozens of written questions that had to be answered) didn't reveal any interesting or new information.


AristotleMarketing slogan for the Moslem part of the world-- "The Gold Dinar: A Krugerrand to call our own."#1007814/2/03; 18:04:33

Somebody was soliciting opinions about the Islamic Gold dinar a few days ago. That slogan suggestion pretty much sums up my opinion. It's basically a Krugerrand with a religious endorsement. Given the Moslem population base, that's a mighty endorsement -- not something to be taken lightly. But that alone doesn't make it money, brother.

"I owe you 5 dinars." Is that IOU Gold, or is it not Gold?

"My business owes your business 5 thousand dinars upon receipt of your goods on April 30th." Is it Gold, and what's its value if that IOU is sold as commercial paper in the interim to a cash-rich (or Gold-rich) third party?

"Our nation owes your nation 5 billion dinars." Oh boy....! What's a default worth?

A Gold dinar coin can be a nice piece of property. A dinar as a unit of account for delayed settlement gets us toward moneyness that will only lead to a dilution of Gold's full-bodied value. Why should we walk that path again after so many lessons from history?

Back to the slogan. I see the dinar some beautiful sunny day in the future as a piece of highly valued property, a form of savings or payment in full (like barter,) but I don't see it functioning as money. At least I sure hope not.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Mr GreshamKev#1007824/2/03; 18:08:30

That's some pretty amazing work. Perhaps you should check in regularly here, so we can be sure you haven't been "swapped" off into deep storage?

Asking so many of our questions -- first-hand, -- and finding out these "leaders" don't know the basics. They're just showing up for work everyday, going through the motions. Who IS running the show?

OK, now what I would like for someone in Europe to do is to dig into the Euro's founding documents for some light on the A/FOA thesis -- 1) that the dollar was rescued after 1971 by a deal with oil for gold, and 2) that the European CBs saw the necessity of propping up the USD (and did so via gold leasing) until their new currency could slide into its place.

Special bonus to anyone who can find a US hand in the decision to go after Trichet.

Most of what we discuss here has passed into more common news (or at least gold) venues. But these questions are still fairly our unique province. Wouldn't it be fun to find someone who took Mundell's ideas, and elaborated on them in strategic terms? Someone who remains in the background of ECB decision-making, but certainly knows more than these guys you encountered.

21mabry(No Subject)#1007834/2/03; 19:59:17

I was watching Ari Fleicher press confrence today, a reporter asked about the future of Iraqs finances.The reporter wanted to know if the new regime would be responsible for Saddams debts,the reporter said it would be a lesson to banks and countries not to loan to dictatorships if all of saddams loans did not have to be repaid.Fleisher danced around the issue,but you know the powers that be will bleed Iraq white.
a nation of oneTo Leigh (04/02/03; 10:54:14MT - msg#: 100760)#1007844/2/03; 20:24:29

Just the very concept of government is itself already a corruption.
CometoseUNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES OF WAR#1007854/2/03; 20:25:19

Interesting analysis with charts relating to GOLD/OIL relationship ..... and the Dollar .

Black BladeMarket Wrap Up – Puplava#1007864/2/03; 21:13:42


You can throw rational thinking out the door. If you tried to explain the market's machinations since the summer of last year, you would need the services of a psychiatrist more than you would the services of an analyst. Investor horizons don't extend far beyond the latest news updates on the war.

One-day markets rise because of postponement of war; the next day they explode on the upside because of the outbreak of war. Markets then fall because the war is taking too long; the next week they rise because the war is going well. Economic news, earnings warnings, bankruptcies and accounting scandals have taken a back seat to the coverage of the war. In military terms, records are being set in terms of the U.S.’ ability to advance so far so quickly. The problem is that with 24-hour news coverage, most of it is news filler. There are too many analysts and pundits making comments on every single fire fight, every little skirmish, each fatality, as well as forecasting the military's next move.

Markets respond to each news event emotionally, moving up on so-called good news and falling hard on bad news. Since last summer with the failure of monetary policy to stem a market decline, active intervention has become part of government policy. There is now an active effort to reflate the financial markets.

Black Blade: It sure appears that way. There is little relation to reality in this market. The economic data released by the government and non-government agencies is absolutely horrible and yet the markets jump and dive on abstract outside events like the war. This market is goofy. The US dollar is weakening and the other world currencies are also weakening in a race to see who can have the weaker currency. Japanese government intervention is just one self destructive mechanism employed by Japanese monetary authorities in a desperate bid to sell trinkets to a shrinking consumer base. Of course it is doomed to failure as they are only digging themselves into a deeper hole day by day. European and North American economies are crumbling under massive debt, rising unemployment and shrinking consumer markets. Yet the stock markets squeeze out temporary gains on non-related events. Even precious metals have come under pressure in spite of strong fundamentals, persistent physical demand and a long term upward trend. But then as I said, there is little relation to reality in this market.

Black BladeMore annual reports delayed#1007874/2/03; 21:23:36


Tough new regulations barring flawed financial reports have caused a record number of companies to warn they will be late in filing their annual reports. Goodyear, Gateway, Qwest Communications, Cummins and American Airlines parent AMR scrambled to meet Tuesday's deadline for requests with the Securities and Exchange Commission to postpone their annual 10-K filings. Companies have filed 2,171 requests for extensions on SEC filings, up 14% from the previous record in 2000, says Annual reports are due 90 days after the end of the fiscal year. For most companies, that deadline was Monday. The delays might unnerve investors who have seen the damage caused the past two years with revelations about bad accounting at companies such as Enron and WorldCom. "How could you not be uncomfortable?" says Marc Gerstein, market strategist at Multex.

Black Blade: There are a lot of little Enrons out there. We don't hear much about them now are other events have dominated the headlines. The high number of extension requests is not really surprising but is going unnoticed.

Black BladeWorld Gold Council Looks Like Coming Third To Australia And China In Race To Develop Gold Investment Instrument.#1007884/2/03; 21:53:29


The listing of Gold Bullion Securities on the Australian Stock Exchange at the end of last week is an oddity. Its development is claimed to be a joint initiative between the World Gold Council and an Australian company called Gold Bullion Ltd. In fact there has been virtually no word from Chris Thompson's team since it took over last October, though CEO James Burton did manage to get a one liner in the press release announcing the listing of Gold Bullion Securities. The difference between Gold Bullion Securities and other forms of gold investment where value is based on a promise by a bank or other party to pay in gold is that each security will represent 1/10 troy ounces in the form of London Good Delivery bars, and can be redeemed for gold (through an approved dealer) or cash. No minimum trading amount is stipulated and the with monthly management fee to cover all corporate, storage and insurance changes is only 0.02 per cent. The physical gold will be insured and held in London vaults by the custodian bank HSBC Bank USA, and all receipts and payments of gold are ‘ring fenced’ for optimum security.

This is an most important development in gold's evolution as an asset class. As the cult of equity dies investors are seeking wealth preservation amid a world of low interest rates and falling stock markets. It's easy enough to buy shares - about 50 per cent of Australians have their own portfolios of various sizes – but very few have ever traded a metal. Now gold has been securitised. A recent PricewaterhouseCooper's report by actuary Dr David Knox found that the introduction of gold bullion into an investment portfolio in the last five or ten years would have reduced the volatility of investment returns as it tends to be negatively correlated with other major asset classes such as shares, property and fixed income.

Newmont's Pierre Lassonde, cheerleader for the global gold industry, claimed some time ago that a 'gold equity' could create up to a 1000 tonnes of investment demand a year. The pace will have to quicken up a shade in Australia for this to happen as only 700 ounces of gold were bought in the first day of trading which is equivalent to 7,000 Gold Bullion Securities. However that is equivalent to nearly A$ 400,000 and it is bound to take a bit of time before this new form of investment is accepted.

Black Blade: I am not sure what to make of this. So you can buy "shares" of gold stored somewhere (we have to take their word that the gold actually exists) and it can be exchanged for gold (from some dealer somewhere) or cash. Now China is getting into this game too. Will the vaults be regularly audited (provided the actual amount of physical gold represented is stored in some vault)? It sounds interesting but also sounds "out of reach" for those who want immediate access to their property. Still, it could be just another addition of asset class for some perhaps but lots of questions remain. The Comex will surely balk (as they don't keep enough physical on hand for outstanding contracts) and who knows how the Europeans markets will react.

slingshot(No Subject)#1007894/2/03; 22:52:16

Belgian, thank you for your answer.

Welcome New Posters.


WaveriderEuro could outshine dollar in Indonesia#1007904/2/03; 23:08:56

"As a US-led war rages in Iraq, the almighty US dollar is under fire as the international currency of choice in Indonesia. Businesses, the central bank and some in government are eyeing the euro as an international transaction medium that could be less volatile in the long term and might carry less political baggage.

The political backlash against the United States is becoming more apparent in Indonesia, where some want to look at the euro more carefully as the currency of choice. There are reports in financial circles that Indonesia's central bank, Bank Indonesia (BI), is considering the use of the euro for Indonesia's foreign-exchange reserves after the increasing value of the euro during the past few weeks. BI governor Syahril Sabirin has said that there are intentions to study the long-term conditions of the European economy and that a discussion paper on the viability of the euro will be shortly be released internally to the Ministry of Finance for consideration.

With the continued strengthening of the euro against the dollar, several export-driven companies are seriously considering switching to the euro. The national oil and gas company Pertamina is one such company. Although oil is currently traded internationally using US dollars, a finance official from Pertamina stated that the euro looks appealing since its been particularly stable as compared with the dollar, which is increasingly volatile against the Indonesian rupiah. "What is needed is a stable international exchange currency which is internationally recognized. The euro is the nearest alternative," said the official."

AristotleThanks Waverider!#1007914/2/03; 23:56:37

Thanks for that latest post from Indonesia in light of my own latest comments on the dinar as opposed to a viable unit for accounting. They're related whether you knew it at the time or not.

Boils down to this. Network externalities will focus even the most independent minded group of clear thinkers.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Aristotle"They're related..."#1007924/2/03; 23:58:36

Meaning our posts are related, NOT the dinar and "unit of account."

Whew! That was a close one!

Gold. etc. etc. --- Ari

Black BladeArmy: Jessica 'was fighting to the death' before capture#1007934/3/03; 00:52:07


WASHINGTON - Pfc. Jessica Lynch, rescued Tuesday from an Iraqi hospital, fought fiercely and shot several enemy soldiers after Iraqi forces ambushed the Army's 507th Ordnance Maintenance company, firing her weapon until she ran out of ammunition, U.S. officials said Wednesday. Lynch, a 19-year-old supply clerk, continued firing at the Iraqis even after she sustained multiple gunshot wounds and watched several other soldiers in her unit die around her in fighting 11 days ago, one official said. The ambush took place after a 507th convoy, supporting the advancing 3rd Infantry Division, took a wrong turn in the southern city of Nasiriyah. "She was fighting to the death," the official said. "She did not want to be taken alive." Several officials cautioned that the precise sequence of events is still being determined, and further information would emerge as Lynch is debriefed. Reports thus far are based on battlefield intelligence, they say, which comes from monitored communications and from Iraqi sources in Nasiriyah whose reliability has yet to be assessed. Pentagon officials said they had heard "rumors" of Lynch's heroics but had no confirmation.

Black Blade: Off topic, but interesting nonetheless. US forces are moving on Baghdad now. One Blackhawk down and one F-16 reported shot down.

geChina Accumulating Gold - Richard Russell#1007944/3/03; 02:21:49

Belgian@ Gresham, * The Wise * # 100782#1007954/3/03; 02:50:17

Yep Gresham, Kev is doing some nice work overhere in Belgium. Let us hope he's not running into trouble with his investigations. W're talking about a stash of 1,000 tonnes of gold-exchange-reserves, that highly indebted Belgium needed to buy its EMU ticket. Was it a straithforward sale or is it a "COLLATERAL" ??? Are these 1,000 tonnes history or still in use as a settlement in progress ? The national debt of 120% GDP has amply declined to 105%. Is this the result after selling 1,000 tonnes of Gold ??? Something very wrong/illogical here ! We need to get this question into parlement.
In the mean time, we keep watching what will happen with the remaining 258 tonnes !

A Big Bravo for your questions in # 100782, wich evidence your deep insight into the Gold matters.
Allow me to reflect on it.

Nobody is going to find any "official" document that will "explicitely" refer to oil for gold / gold for dollar-support / euro for oil. Otherwise, A/FOA's thesis could be reduced to a couple of pages, instead of a deep digging into history and evolving present. We have to keep on "decoding" all statements (past and future) as to how they relate to Gold/oil/$-€ currencies, relationships, trends, intentions, policies, political wills, etc...

Go and have a look at the following publications :

*From Gold to euro* : On monetary theory and history of currency systems. Heinz Peter Spahn.

*History of the euro* by J.Orlin Grable.

*Pushing euro up, oil down* : European vieuw, compiled by Srdja Trifkovic (

When you Google on euro/gold/oil and central bank will find much more of this kind of articles. But they all remain very, subtly suggestive, into A/FOA's thesis.

Why is that ?

Euroland (and its euro) is "in the process" of *decoupling* from decades of dollar-US-oriented leadership and automatic alliance(s). Euroland wants to become "independant" as a son (ECB) from its father (FED). Once this notion is grasped, one can easely understand that such a process is not always running smoothly. But it is happening NOW !

That's why there are *** different *** Gold-factions, within Euroland ! They have differences in opinion about the euro versus the dollar...use of the of independance from the Atlantic father (brother)...and many other policies.

In the middle of all this, we have *La France* ! It is France that desires to lead Euroland...away from father US !
La France is the one who is historically an extreme "PRO" Gold actor and has deep historical ties with the Middle East, formerly shared with the UK. France will keep on maneuvering for the oil for euro. But faces counter winds from the "OLD" pro dollar factions within Euroland.

Yes, Euroland cannot put its brand new (modern) "idendity" on a high profile, because the older generation, is still reluctant to accept such a dramatic change with the past evidencies of Atlantic common causes. It is the main element in A/FOA's expression of "political will". It is about the degree of independance and capacity or will to run one's own euro-path. Voila, it is this evolution that we are watching, daily.

For the time being, Euroland (ECB) is "still" supporting the dollar !

France agreed to support a *brief* extension for Duisenberg's term !!! Is Trichet a Gold Taliban ? W'll see somewhat later. What is the difference between French fries and Freedom fries ? Why is Germany not demonized...? Because they have a relative powerful ally...Russia !
Why are the Netherlands (a goldreserve seller-dollar supporter) deeply devided at present ? Division between pro-$ and pro-€ ! Yep Sir Gresham...the divide and rule strategy all over the place. Heavy political arm-twisting.

Yesterday in BBC hard-talk, the UK Tories stated almost bluntly that Iraq's gigantic oil-reserves will be developped for the benefit of the liberated...AND the liberators as well !!! Will the gold-dinar have the capacity to strike back ?

Will the (possible) renewal of the WA (2004) be a drastic (Trichet) one or another compromis between the two factions ?

Today, Germany (Schroeder) lifts a warning finger about the possible confiscation of Iraqi oil !

All this turmoil is happening against a global economic detoriation / stagnation, wich makes positioning much more difficult for Euroland (€) than the US ($).
This means that the circumstances are not favorable for making "shocking" moves by any participant or faction.
The ECB is under a lot of pressure to follow the FED logic (zero IRs). Structural reforms (not only European ones) are postponed in the hope we can all manage it back to the good old days, once again ! I'm convinced we can't...and you !?

Thanks Sirs, Gresham and Kevin.

Black BladeOne Ugly Chart#1007964/3/03; 03:02:58

Gold is falling right after the Hong Kong market closed. On the other hand it is now a screaming bargain. US dollar is rising, equities markets are rising, and US troops are entering Baghdad suburbs meeting little resistance. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

WAC (Wide Awake Club)@J-Bullion - Gold Price#1007974/3/03; 05:44:55

Today, for the very first time the FT is displaying the price of Gold (on the front page) along with Euro/US$/GBP cross-rates and of course Brent Crude!!!! Kind of says it all really. I emphasise that they always carry the price of bullion (and other commodities), but today, for the first time, it is FRONT PAGE news. See title Markets Latest.
LeSinRussia Finds Solution To Having Excess US$ - Buys Gold - A Novel Idea, Yes?#1007984/3/03; 06:07:11

The Central Bank considers not completely effective the sterilization of the money supply by holding depository auctions, Bank chief Ignatiyev said Wednesday at the conference ‘Modernizing Russia's economy: Social context’.

It is thought that the country's gold reserves this year will expand by $7 billion. However, they grew by $7 billion in the first quarter alone. He noted that in those three months the Central Bank attracted four times more deposits than in the same period last year.

It needs to be recognized that this manner of sterilization is not very effective, as the necessity of significantly increasing interest rates is leading to an outflow of capital, he said. Ignatiyev noted that, in his view, fiscal sterilization is much more effective.

masAin't this fun#1007994/3/03; 06:53:55

Gold at 325, what a laugh. I'm all over the floor laughing. What's next .10 cents a gallon? When is this stupidity going to stop! Are you ever going to admit that you have serious financial problems or are we just going to continue hiding it with war?
My question, Florida/Al Gore - if he won then what would have happened?
Next question - how long do you (Americans) expect the rest of the world to accept this treatment? War, manipulation of markets, mis-information, etc etc...
I think it would be best to exit stage left........
Gold is really the only equalizer in this world, the rest is @£$%.
Good luck to all cause we are now in unknown territory(ies).

CytekEconomist predicts world recession #1008004/3/03; 07:03:18

Morgan Stanley economist cites SARS, war uncertainties as the main causes for pending recession.
April 2, 2003: 1:11 PM EST

NEW YORK (CNN) - One of Wall Street's leading economists is predicting a global recession this year, prompted in large part by fears surrounding Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), the "mystery illness" with cold-like symptoms that is blamed for 78 deaths in 15 countries, CNNfn has learned.

Morgan Stanley's chief economist in the United States, Stephen Roach, will formally advise clients Friday that he's forecasting a world recession in 2003. His previous forecast was for an annual growth rate of 2.5 percent.

Roach told CNNfn that SARS is "just another nail on the coffin for the world economy." And slower global growth, he said, will impact U.S. exports.

"You've got war, SARS, uncertainty, and imbalances that will prevail after the war is over and until a cure for the disease is found," Roach said.

Air Canada (ACNAF: Research, Estimates) blamed the disease for contributing to its financial plight as it filed for bankruptcy Tuesday. An airline spokeswoman said SARS had brought a reduction in flights between Canada and Hong Kong, Beijing, and Shanghai.

Of the 2,223 cases of SARS confirmed by the World Health Organization, 1,898 occurred in mainland China and Hong Kong.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Tuesday its

Cytek- Even with SARS hitting mainstream news, the DOW rallys 215 points yesterday. Did someone say "PENDING RECESSION". DAAAAA. And now futures are up another 100 points, and then this morning the Labor Department reports that new jobless claims applications jump by 38,000 to 445,000 for the week ending March 29. Everything is being discounted because the troops advance into Bagdad. My only question is where is the "WMD". I think the Marines are going to be ticked off if they don't find anything.

masSir Belgian, why do we have to have a gun to our heads?#1008014/3/03; 07:18:54

Your point - The ECB is under a lot of pressure to follow the FED logic (zero IRs). Structural reforms (not only European ones) are postponed in the hope we can all manage it back to the good old days, once again ! I'm convinced we can't...and you !?

Why does the rest of the world have to accept this? Why are all the reserves still in dollars? Because we like them, yeah right! Let's see I make some shoes over here for .50 cents and sell them over there for 100. (Nice profit for "over there"). And you pay me in paper thats printed on what, with what?
Time will tell as you say, but I am really upset that these governments don't put whats WRONG right. No wonder every one is on the streets, ain't no use listening to a politician, all they do is just talk, (no-sense)!

Don't worry Gold will go up. Wall of worry they say. I'm still laughing at how manipulated everything is. FOA said that IR needed to be ZERO before he showed up again. Were close.

Good luck to all.

Gondolinmas 100799#1008024/3/03; 07:25:24

Spot on. How long IS the rest of the world going to take it? The cynical would almost suggest its' a bit too convenient having SARS plunge the the Eastern Asian economies into freefall at the same time as so called war fears cause havoc in the US amd European markets. Maybe TPTB have hoarded all the gold they can and are about to exit left, run for the hills and blame a world-wide epidemic and a catastrophic middle eastern war for the economic meltdown. Just another conspiracy theory. (?)
Mr GreshamThe Madness of Empire#1008034/3/03; 07:29:50

Does this sound like a good idea to you? Is Richard Perle someone you'd like to have over for dinner, let alone marry your daughter?

mas -- you are right. Either we gold-philes are wrong, wrong, wrong, or we 'Mericans have entered strange, strange territory and it's nothing us metallic nutcases are going to be happy being right about. Exeunt stage left, exactamundo!

Belgian -- There is so much in yours. Factions, I suspected. And of course the espionage community has re-tooled post-USSR to tend toward, ah, business matters. No hand is strong if revealed too soon, but this war certainly forces the playing of many cards, more quickly.

Euro financial institutions were drawn into unwise lending/investments, too. Are they being propped up -- in other words, can the Euro be compromised by being drawn into dollar-type games?

Anyway, Russia, China, and whoever else is buying today must be happy, happy, happy. Fail up, fail down, but fail the market shall. (I am also aware that such a hypothesis can be used as a cover for being wrong about POG's future direction -- but, hey, it's like holding an option on a takeover candidate -- just waiting for the news...)

Belgian@ WAC#1008044/3/03; 07:58:22

POG Not only on the frontpage of the F.T....but also daily commented on the CNBC ticker tape as well, when POG tumbled from 390$ to 325$. As if the dollar-media want to let the world know that they are still in control of the dollar-reserve and that the present (and future) liberation operations are for the benefit of all of us...and them !

So WAC, when you say that "this says it all"...what exactly do you mean by that ? TIA.

Idem dito for the POO (decline) ! It is some kind of a sweetener (appaisement) for the atrocities that all wars/conflicts, bring with them. Liberation of Iraq = Lower POO and your bravery/sacrifices will be rewarded (paid for) at the gas station ! No, not me being cynical but this comes literally from CNNfn.

Powell in Brussels : Iraqi oil for the people and we are going to tell them for what these oil-revenus should be used for ! No oil for your own weaponary. Oil in dollars and a pipeline to Haifa. Basta !
And to UN members, especially for those with a veto-right...if you want a peace of the cake...get organized to occupy Iraq under UN auspices and bring some money with you. Let's negociate about this. And in the mean time...keep your euro quiet, will ye.

WAC, am I having it completely wrong here, in your opinion ?

POG + POO + $ are telling us under what kind of circumstances, the coming negociations should take place.

J-BullionWAC#1008054/3/03; 08:39:58

I see the price of bullion right in-between the currency rates and the major commodity oil. The question is, has the FT labeled gold as money? or a commodity?

Wait till gold is up at 390 again (no guess when? just that it will be up there at some point) and see how quickly it disappears from the front page. LOL.

Belgian@ Gresham and Mas#1008064/3/03; 09:14:26

Gresham : Oh boy, are you right !!!!
*** Euro financial institutions were drawn into unwise (insane-!!!) investments (gambles-!!!)
I have been shouting this overhere (Belgium-Euroland) like a devil, Sir ! But it was soooohhhhh much fun, wasn't it ?
The greatttt AngloAmerican *financial* dream(s)...before the nightmare.
I don't care about the stupidity of the financial institutions (banks-funds-etc) but about all these ordinarry folks who have lost and are still losing their honest *** SAVINGS ***. Believe me...there are some dramas (personal financial) overhere. Simply because of infantile, blind trust in the financial institutions. In one word : Baaahhhh !

You : ...the euro be compromised by being drawn into dollar-type games (gambles)...
Me : If the dollar-reserve (and its policies) would still be percepted as "omnipotent"...the euro would never had recovered from its initial knock down (minus 30%) and would already be crushed by now. The euro must definitely have a concept that will outrun the dollar sooner or later !
But, the lack of euro-leadership and internal division, are the main reason why the euro (and concepts) take so much time to implement its intentions. For instance : how can the euro compete with the phenomenon of * dollar-diplomacy * (cfr. Leigh listing) ? If the euro would start imitating the dollar war-logic and spend confetti on the (€) would be no other currency than the dollar.

Thanks Gresham, for the stimulating respons.

Mas : Yes Sir, it takes a lot of selfcontrol to remain cool with what is happening now. An absolute minority of "rulers" is taking us "ALL" (AAAALLLLL) for complete brainless idiots. And with "all", I do mean AngloAmerican, Euroland citizens as well.
But never doubt about Free Gold ! And indeed, a lot of Goldphiles are laughing and taking their time to accumulate the available precious. This Gold-reflex will only increase because more and more people are coming under direct/indirect threats of all sorts (financial, economical, military).
C. Powell stated in Brussels that any UN-initiative would be conducted under the coalition's terms...and will therefor fail of course. How will the dollar react to this aftermath of the conflict(s), somewhat later ?

geFrom a Russian point of view#1008074/3/03; 09:36:14

Russians analyse, the consequences of a Bush victory and a Bush stumble.

The stumble is defined as a war of at least three months duration. The iraq war site of Russians ( also mentions three months as critical. They assume that US economy (already burdened with structural problems) shall begin to feel the heat after three months.

It is a gamble. Dices have been thrown. We, the spectators, are waiting, breathlessly...

Daniel Druffmas#1008084/3/03; 09:51:10

"Next question - how long do you (Americans) expect the rest of the world to accept this treatment?" mas

You'll accept it and you'll like it until the world's economic community comes up with another monetary system, so get busy.


mikal@ge#1008094/3/03; 09:51:31

3 mo.? LOL
Another arbitrary prophecy, from wanna-be authorities. Entertainment Mahendra wouldn't even dream up. At least he has half-credible explanations.

a nation of onefuture pog#1008104/3/03; 10:03:26

When you are in the field, fighting a war is kind of like trying to dance with a big octopus, except that war has more arms in more places, some quite unexpected. Those who venture to do so without significant hands-on experience tend to find it is different from what they imagined. Their optimism is often without sound justification. And those at home, who sit in their comfy chairs and monitor its goings-on tend to optimism that is even less real. It is these people who feel ebullient on any positive news and buy stocks on that feeling, even though the real outcome is not yet known and is not related to their biased understanding. These are minor players, whipped by the winds of their own emotions, and by the tales told for the purpose of giving them incentives to fling their money. They are gamblers. People who buy and sell on the basis of sound reasoning tend to make up their minds only after due consideration, and they tend to be right more often. Stocks are up now on account of feelings. They will come down on account of reality. Gold is still strong, for good reasons. Even the tale-telling mood whippers have been unable to inflict gross damage on POG with pretty -but unrealistic- stories. The primary trend is still up. I love America. But gold is also good.
mikal@Daniel Druff#1008114/3/03; 10:10:04

Re: "so get busy." Speak for yourself.
How do you know they haven't prepared a new monetary system? Have you read Foreign Affairs or FT lately or followed any gold forums?
Common sense would dictate that a handful of FOA's GIANTS or a trillion dollar fraternity of vested internationalists would have contingency plans, nay deadlines set in place and backup plans of all kinds. Whereby their secrecy guarantees them and their family a share of the adulation of the conquered and all the benefits of club membership.
Do we know a member of one of the clubs? Hardly likely, unless we are a low level operative, who would still be uninitiated to the real lives of those that pull the strings.

Daniel DruffMikal#1008124/3/03; 10:18:51

"How do you know they haven't prepared a new monetary system?" Mikal

I'm suggesting a new monetary system which is reasonably moral rather than a phoney fiat euro/dollar/whatever scam. A system which rewards frugality and responsible citizenship unlike this moronic rip-off deal we currently have. And you are correct of course, the current system allows the insiders an escape in that they can acquire credit and buy problem.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...#1008144/3/03; 10:54:34

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

MK. Our business philosophy allows us to take a more laid-back approach. We don't employ a room full of brokers spinning the phones day and night. We don't have multi-million dollar advertising expenses dictating what kind of advice we give clients. This is all by choice. I decided long ago that I didn't want the headaches that go with managing a large number of brokers and the support staff and facilities required. At the same time, we get hundreds of requests each month for introductory information packets. We do not make cold calls. We do not work mailing lists. We do not call people at all hours of the day or night. We do not use marketing and sales gimmicks -- leaders, bait and switch, and the rest of it. We primarily work with clients who have discovered us, like what they see, and want to form a long term relationship with a reputable and reliable gold firm.

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

MK. Yes and no. In the short run, "yes." In the long run, "no." We probably lose a few prospects to the aggressive companies which use hard-sell tactics but we will not be changing our client-friendly approach. We know that not every prospective investor is going to become a client of USAGOLD / Centennial. However, we know that the client who chooses us is likely to be the type of client we are accustomed to doing business with. We work with a large number of professional people and business owners -- active, retired and semi-retired. In fact, we work with clientele that span the economic spectrum and all walks of life. Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to earlier. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

MK. Fundamentally, we believe that we are here to serve the client. Anyone who has done business with us will vouch for the courteous and professional service he or she has received. Our staff is carefully chosen and it shows. We get referrals on nearly a daily basis and are kept busy with strong repeat business. I would also like to call attention to the solid informational services offered at this website. We believe that any of our clients or visitors will find USAGOLD head and shoulders above anything else out there. I would encourage anyone attending this site to have a look around. We also publish a very good hard copy newsletter called News & Views: A Bi-monthly Review of Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Above and beyond that, the most important thing is the way we treat our clientele. From first inquiry through order fulfillment, we want to make the gold investing experience as pleasant and rewarding as possible. We have a large and satisfied clientele and that's the way we want to keep it.

Mr GreshamThanks, Belgian#1008174/3/03; 11:51:31

Must be that new beer I've been drinking, Nostradamus, from Brasserie la Caracole in, where else, Belgium. The powers of prophecy do come a bit more pricily than with our Bud, so I keep it within limit. (And of course, keep the NM in the fridge, after a hard day of carrying la plata.)
TownCrierFederal Reserve adds $14.75 billion to banking system#1008184/3/03; 11:55:20

In open market operations today, $4 billion of that sum was added through 28-day repurchase agreements, the balance through overnight repos.

There is no meaningful limit to the amount of new money that can injected through this means. Further, the deflation monster is found wheezing and anemic when the government is ready willing and able to step up as the borrower and spender of last resort with the Fed monetizing banking assets of all stripes and an endless stream of Treasury bonds.

Call Centennial today for good exchange rates on a very prudent course of action -- portfolio diversification with unprintable gold. If you buy the printable kind of "gold" (i.e., futures, options, etc.) you haven't achieved meaningful diversification from risk of default and inflationary depreciation and losses.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A proper treasure never expires#1008194/3/03; 12:10:33

Golden Goal

"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

CytekSARS is Spreading#1008204/3/03; 12:30:17

The table from the CDC's site shows a table of cases under investigation. Wonder if this thing will break out into an epidemic? BlackBlade puts it right, better have a food storage program,cash and gold.
TownCrierCalling your attention to the latest CB Insider update...#1008214/3/03; 15:05:23

(excerpts from this biweekly issue)

Newsmakers reports from the war zone...
All hands are on deck as central banks take stock of the escalating crisis in Iraq. At a guess, the most twitchy of all might be Iraq's own central bank, whose very livelihood is on the line as events draw menacingly closer to what seems to be their inexorable conclusion. The governor of the central bank, Issam Rashid Hwaish, has poured vitriol on the announcement that overseas assets held by the central bank (as well as other government funds) are to be seized and transferred to the New York Federal Reserve. He has denounced this as an "act of piracy", as "these deposits enjoy the protection of the party that decided to freeze them" - in other words the UN Security Council which did so back in 1990. Hwaish says that therefore "US authorities are committing a new stupidity by violating international law."

But this is not all Hwaish has to worry about. Washington has long been plotting the replacement for Saddam Hussein's regime, and that does not exclude plans for rebuilding the central bank as well as possibly issuing a new currency in postwar Iraq. It has been conjectured that the dollar may become the de facto currency, though some have suggested that perhaps the currency used by the Kurds in northern Iraq, the "Swiss print" dinar, might replace the dinar which is in circulation in the rest of the country. "Whatever it is, it will not be a currency with Saddam Hussein's picture on it," according to one senior US official.

[Regular USAGOLD forumers will recall that we covered these events mentioned above as they unfolded in prior weeks.]

What's more, it will presumably not be up to the central bank. But by all accounts, the Iraqi central bank doesn't have much say in such matters anyway. According to dissident former governor of the 1970s Salah Al-Sheikhly, who is now one of the lynchpins of the opposition movement against Saddam, "the central bank no longer performs its institutional role in the economy... It doesn't regulate exchange rates or interest rates; these decisions are controlled by the regime. In reality, Saddam and his sons control the printing presses and they are just manufacturing more money." No surprises there.

A political exile based in London and no friend of Saddam, Al-Sheikhly says Saddam has done for the Iraqi economy by racking up prodigious debts with unfettered military spending - to the tune of $112 billion according to his estimates. "It is with governments like Russia, France and Bulgaria for the supply of arms," he has said.

Along with other economists, he has been working with the US State Department and Treasury to come up with an economic plan for postwar Iraq, favouring a scenario such as took place in former Yugoslavia where 66% of its debts were forgiven.

mikal"European Central Bank leaves interest rates unchanged"#1008224/3/03; 15:14:53 _rates_5.html

Also discusses Jean-Claude Trichet's upcoming court date and a possible short delay in filling Duisenberger's seat, as head of the ECB.
mikalLink to IR story#1008234/3/03; 15:17:30

Correct link.
mikalCorrection#1008244/3/03; 15:19:54

Duisenberg's, NOT "Duisenberger's"
Black BladeChina -- Externally or Internally Driven? - Stephen Roach (New York)#1008254/3/03; 16:33:35


While in Beijing recently, I caused a bit of a stir in discussing the sources of China's extraordinary economic growth. I depicted the vigor of the Chinese economy as being heavily dependent on exports -- an externally led growth dynamic that would put China center stage in feeling the stresses and strains of the global business cycle and globalization. I was criticized on this point -- by both Chinese and western analysts. They maintained that China's impressive growth could be traceable more to solid increases in domestic demand. This is obviously a key point in assessing the sustainability of Chinese economic growth, to say nothing of China's impact on the rest of Asia and the broader global economy. Who's right?

Black Blade: An interesting analysis of the Chinese economy. I see the Chinese economy as the only likely economy on the fast track for global expansion. This would explain a lot of the soaring demand for precious metals in that country. In today's DMR I touch lightly on this with remarks by Richard Russell of Dow Theory Letters. He states what I have long suspected, that is the Chinese government is quietly accumulating gold and encouraging its citizens to accumulate gold so they may emerge as the next "economic super power" to eventually be untied to the US dollar (the Renimbi is pegged to the dollar). The central bank is known to be accumulating tens of tons of gold by direct purchase from SA mines and perhaps on the open market from time to time. They are also rumored to be the major buyer of gold through so called "central bank sales". The newly liberalized gold market and the establishment of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, not to mention much less restrictive gold mining regulations, is just more grist for the mill so to speak. If they can't beat us militarily (an expensive and untidy option) they certainly can take advantage of our weakness and beat us economically. The first stage of course is to unburden themselves from weakening US dollar reserves and replace them with precious metals. The Chinese have always been know to be patient and this quiet accumulation at fire sale prices is very much in their favor. As the old Chinese proverb goes: "Interesting Times".

Off to the gym!

Socrates964China#1008264/3/03; 17:12:46

I agree - seems to me that Chinese exports are going to contract as the rest of the world goes into recession - I presume that their response will be to redirect demand towards their home market. Under such cirucmstances, the key to success is low manufacturing costs, and as a major importer, the key to low manufacturing costs is a strong yuan, and presumably one of the keys to a strong yuan is a shift of foreign reserves away from the $ towards euros and PMs.
silvercollectorI don't understand anything anymore#1008274/3/03; 17:24:37

"...assets held by the central bank (as well as other government funds) are to be seized and transferred to the New York Federal Reserve..."

Didn't Bush and Blair (in Azores) promise that the "assets" and the property of the Iraqi people remain so??

A week or so ago it was announced that some 40,000 Republican Guard were leaving the (relative) safety of Baghdad and heading south to head off the advancing coalition. It is reported that they are getting smoked.
Now it is reported that they cannot retreat back into the city.

Why would they do that (ie. leave in the first place)??

The Invisible HandThe end of a (political and/or monetary) regime#1008284/3/03; 17:43:14

SNIP from the DMR:
Comment: Gold was hit on fund selling as the Iraq War comes to a close and speculators attempt to front run the official announcement. The U.S. dollar and equities markets gained although economic data suggests a much weaker economy. Over the last few days I have been quietly hoping for the Iraq War to come to a quick conclusion so the weak short-term speculators would be shaken out and gold could continue its relentless long term climb to its true value on the weak U.S. dollar and grim global economy.

Are we to understand that the US of A regimes (from Bush sr. over Clinton to Bush jr.) are about to fall (thus that, ordered or not so, anarchy will be instituted in the US of A) and that POG manipulation will come to an end?
Or should we believe the information manipulation by the media of the US of A that it is another regime which about to leave the stage?
Are regimes and (world reserve-) currencies linked? is announcing in its "latest news" section that the PM of the French regime (the Ancien(t) one?) is saying that the regime of the US of A made a grave error by instituting a war against the Iraqi regime. Why does the French regime make that statement _now_?

GoldiloxRussia and Al Gore (two subjects)#1008294/3/03; 17:54:10

BB: Since USA watched the USSR-Afgani war bankrupt the USSR war machine during their quest to establish an Afgan pipeline for Bizekistani oil, it must seem ironic for them to watch us stretching our military resources so thin in these many excursions. While we inflate the $$ further with massive borrowing and very expensive military operations, they get to fortify their financial status buying gold like it's Christmas.

mas:Don't know where we'd be right now if the election weirdness had not occurred, but I read last week that Al Gore recently joined the board of Apple Computer. My guess on this is that democratic California is building a political challenge to the Bush regime. Energy gouging and contracting capital equipment markets have left the tech sector heavily battered, and they need to unite a political effort aimed at the highly energy-centric Bush government.

WaveriderTidbits#1008314/3/03; 20:04:21

Silvercollector...Where are the Rublican Guards...the exact same question is being asked on CNN. Other questions I might add...why did Iraq expel AlJazeera? And why did Iraq turn the lights out in Baghdad? Hmmm...

Where is Sir Sector - we haven't heard from him for a few days....I miss his news and views which balanced (dis)information provided by mainstream media.

J-Bullion, Balzac and Mikal....I sent an email to Bloomberg to ask what happened to spot Gold and Silver. I received a response tonight indicating that they were inadvertently deleted during the switch over and should be up again shortly. We'll see!

Aristotle - you're welcome! Sector first mentioned the idea of Indonesia transferring foreign exchange reserves to euros a few days back - I suspect they'll be a lot more political pressure amongst Arab nations to say good riddance to the dollar. And thanks for your clarification - you had me going there for a brief me some!!


Black BladeGoldilox#1008324/3/03; 21:08:19

I don't know how it will all play out in Iraq. The war is effectively over. Now to "win the peace". The costs will certainly be a drain as a "Marshall Plan" will be needed and now there is talk of letting the UN manage the reconstruction. The US will bear most of the costs of the war, occupation, and reconstruction and just maybe get little in return unless there is some plan for long-term dedicated oil supply. The Russians and French are now whining that they may lose out on their tens of $billions in loans and oil concession contracts. I saw one estimate of nearly $132 billion in loans to Saddam. No wonder they're ticked off.

As for Al Gore, I understand that he has already received 30,000 options of Apple Computer shares and some other perks. Who says you can't buy political influence? But then he claimed to have invented the Internet. Hmmm…

- Black Blade

Black BladeMarket Wrap Up – Puplava#1008334/3/03; 21:29:57


It must be mentioned that debt levels at the corporate level, debt levels at the consumer level, and debt levels at the government level are another inhibitor to the economy's recovery. When you analyze the logic behind the arguments made for economic recovery they don't pass the smell test. Companies lay off workers to improve profitability. These laid off workers go out and borrow more money to maintain consumption. Governments raise taxes to offset growing budget deficits, which reduce workers take home pay. Can anyone explain to me from a macro perspective how all of this works? Raising taxes and firing workers is a prescription for a recession, not a recovery. You don't need to be an analyst, economist or many a nuclear physicists to understand that reducing a worker's income through taxes and reducing a worker's income from unemployment doesn't build purchasing power. Besides, it is savings and investment that build a recovery and create wealth; not debt and consumption.

Black Blade: Exactly! Meanwhile Al Greenspan and the boyz and girlz at the Fed dance lightly on eggs shells saying that the "economy is in recovery" or experiencing a "soft patch". Warren Buffett continues to warn investors and many appear to be listening because the individual investor is content to sit this one out.

BTW, I see that funds and specs are taking up short positions on gold in hopes of a decline once the war is concluded. The question is whether the commercials (aka the pros) exit their shorts and take the opposite position as they tend to do. Regardless, gold producers are aggressively unwinding hedgebooks in a show of confidence of a bull market in gold. View the gold producers as the ultimate insiders. The US dollar is in a world of hurt long-term due to massive debt and deficit spending. The current strength in the dollar is solely based on the hopes of a quick conclusion to the Iraq War and is not supported by any economic indicator I can find except other currencies are just weaker. Hmmm…

Black BladeCan Saddam's defeat offset lousy earnings? #1008344/3/03; 21:44:56

The dogs of war


Over the next six weeks, hidden somewhere in the headlines between Peter Arnett and the bunker-to-bunker search for Saddam, will be news about the lousiest set of quarterly earnings we've seen yet in this three-year bear market. Companies in industries ranging from airlines and travel to media to technology are expected to dump a ton of bad news on investors about their performance in the past three months and their outlooks going forward. Lots of them will blame the war for their uncertain outlooks. Others will try to pack as much of their dirty laundry into the first quarter as possible to get all the bad news out of the way.

The question is whether investors care. With the market moving up and down in lockstep with the tone of headlines coming out of Iraq the last two weeks, it's possible that reports of progress in taking Baghdad and finding and killing Saddam could offset a lousy earnings and economic environment. That certainly explains the rally this week, when the dramatic rescue of Army Pfc. Jessica Lynch from her Iraqi captors and the beginning of the Battle of Baghdad stoked a huge move for equities, even as economic indicators came out poor and we stare at a lame earnings season ahead. "We're seeing the rally because we're not staring at earnings, we're staring at the war," said Marc Gerstein, director of investment research at

Black Blade: Perhaps so. I may have under estimated the investing publics gullibility (or is that stupidity?). The economic data is so horrible who in their right mind is buying into the stock market these days. Is this the reason for the recent slide in precious metals? Perhaps, as I said, I may have underestimated the psychology of the average Lemming. Some of the reasons given on CNBC and other financial media are absolutely absurd I have a hard time believing it myself. In the end the markets must respond to the deteriorating economic data and poor fundamental case for stocks and the dollar, while gold must catch up to economic reality. "Interesting Times"

Black BladeInternational doubts dog US plans for postwar Iraq #1008354/3/03; 22:43:37


NICOSIA, Apr.3 -- Even as US officials try to address growing international concerns about US control of oil fields in postwar Iraq, more doubts have arisen about the near-term potential for any projected boom in the Arab country's oil production. US Sec. of State Colin Powell briefed EU foreign ministers and NATO leaders in Brussels on the war Thursday and considered their opinions on "the appropriate role" for the United Nations in rebuilding Iraq. While acknowledging a role for other nations and organizations in rebuilding post-war Iraq, Powell nonetheless maintained Washington's position that coalition forces should be dominant once the government of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein has fallen. "I think the coalition has to play the leading role," he told a closing news conference. "But that does not mean we have to shut others out. There will definitely be a United Nations role, but what the exact nature of that role will be remains to be seen." Powell's position on that issue was no surprise. Last week, he said, "We didn't take on this huge burden with our coalition partners and not (plan) to be able to have a significant, dominating control over how it unfolds in the future."

Several European leaders have expressed concern that the US wants control of Iraq's post-war transition period, particularly over its oil industry, and they insist on a post-war rebuilding plan that calls for greater control by the UN. "After this war, the UN must play the central role as far as the future of Iraq and the new political order is concerned," Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder told the German parliament Thursday. He said, "I would warn against speculating at this point about the details of the necessary reconstruction of Iraq." Earlier, French President Jacques Chirac, who threatened to use France's veto to block a UN Security Council resolution authorizing the use of force against Iraq, said that allowing the US and Britain to oversee Iraq's post-war transition would be rewarding the "belligerents."

US plans call for a post-war military administration under Gen. Tommy Franks, head of the US Central Command, or a deputy, and a civil administration directed by Jay Garner, a retired general who heads the Office of Reconstruction and Humanitarian assistance. Garner is expected to oversee the civilian administration and to attach US officials to various Iraqi ministries, including oil. In time, control of Iraq's government will
gradually pass to an Iraqi administration. The US, which maintains that Iraq's oil revenue is essential to finance postwar reconstruction, is expected to install a senior American oil executive to oversee Iraq's petroleum industry. UK Foreign Office Minister Mike O'Brien outlined a British variation of the US plan Wednesday. "What we are doing is establishing the basic administrative structure, security, and law and order after Saddam has gone," he explained. Under the UK proposals, Garner would lead a team, including six British officials, that would make decisions about running basic community services in the first "few weeks" after a war. "Also, we want to set up an Iraqi interim authority whose job it will then be to take over from Jay Garner to run Iraq as quickly as possible as we can enable that to happen," O'Brien explained. The coalition team would serve temporarily in an advisory capacity to those Iraqi officials

Black Blade: It sounds like the plan for postwar Iraq is being planned. It appears much like the WWII transition of Gen. McArthur in Japan and Gen. Lewis in Germany. In the meantime those who opposed the Iraqi War will be squeezed out of the picture. I guess so, the US and UK did the "heavy lifting" so to speak.

WaveriderBlack Blade#1008364/3/03; 22:48:20

Hmmm...I'm very suspect of what's being reported on the news re: Iraq and the war being all but over. Once again this week, on April 1, the US dollar index fell to 99.27, the DOW fell below 8,000, and POG was at around $335.00. Then...all of a sudden, stories of a quick victory and multiple military successes in Iraq are abundant. I'm suspect....I think the economy is in such a mess that we NEED positive (biased) war news at the moment to sustain the dollar and the DOW (and yes, the lemmings are buying it), because as you pointed out, the economic news is atrocious. The markets don't have the ability to absorb a double whammy - bad economic news *and* bad (even balanced) news from the war front. I'm cautious - I still don't think the danger of WMD has passed, in fact I don't think they'll be used until it's apparent to those in control that the regime is fallen - they very well could be used as a last resort. IMHO I think things are probably far from certain in terms of when Operation Iraqi Liberation (OIL)...oops...I mean Freedom is complete, but that won't and can't be suggested in the mainstream news because of market sensitivity and reactivity. I guess time will tell.

BTW - a quote I came across today...

"Only the dead have been the end of the war" Plato.


slingshotPost War Iraq#1008374/3/03; 23:53:26

Will this coalition army be one of liberation or just another army of occupation. I find it troubling that American troops will occupy a land after the hostilites are over. I prefer my friends return home. There may be an opportunity that may be well missed. When these men of evil have been incarerated they should be tried according to Islamic Law for their War Crimes and not international law. If not I feel that those who had suffered under this evil regime will be cheated from their justice in their own custums or religion. To be judged by their own would send a signal to other Arab countries. This form of democracy to be insalled will not be accepted for the people have different traditions centuries old, and terrorism will be its objection. So too if they choose to go to a gold standard and forbid usury, So Be It. I fear that the sacrifices of our armed forces to free an oppressed people will be lost to the greed of corporate giants.


Black BladeWaverider and slingshot#1008384/4/03; 01:12:05

Waverider – I considered that there may be some fight still in them but for all practical purposes it looks more like a mop up operation at this point. If the Iraqis choose to use WMD then they will probably wait until the coalition forces "bunch up" on the outskirts of Baghdad for maximum effect. It could be that at the end Saddam (if indeed he is still alive) and his "inner circle" already know their likely fate in a War Crimes tribunal and would probably have no qualms about taking out a lot of coalition forces, Baghdad residents, and themselves in one final act. Sort of like David Koresh or Jim Jones. Still, VX (or any other nerve agent) is not a very pleasant way to "check out".

Slingshot – I saw an analyst on a news program who suggested that there are about 85 suspects that could qualify for the death sentence and maybe up to another 2,000 who qualify for sentences up to life imprisonment (of course several may already be dead). In the aftermath of WWII there were only 12 death sentences of German Nazi officials resulting from the Nuremberg trials. With all the various tribal and culturally different peoples in Iraq it would be "pay back time" as a lot of old scores may need to be settled. So an objective trial by Iraqis would not be very likely. There are also a number of different Islamic cultures involved (not all Islam is the same just as not all Christian religions are the same) not to mention other various minor ethnic groups (including Iraqi Christians). Actually I would think that dividing the ethnic regions into separate countries would be a possible solution but then the Turks would not be very impressed.

Still a transitional government under US/UK administration much like post WWII would prevent a lot of potential problems such as aid distribution, reconstruction, and of course petroleum exploitation.

- Black Blade

The Invisible HandLet's keep our visible or invisible fingers crossed today#1008404/4/03; 01:14:55

The message has apparently disappeared from Jim Sinclair's page (and has been interpreted since Monday by Jim himself as meaning that today would only be the bottom – BTW, what's the meaning of "no later than the Friday close" – Is that before or after the close?), but anyway, here's the GATA reference. The content of Jim's commentary has, except if I am mistaken, not been discussed on the Forum.

[GATA] Urgent advisory from James Sinclair: Gold will assault $400 this week

2:36p ET Monday, March 31, 2003

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

James Sinclair has urgent commentary at his Internet

An excerpt: "You should not be influenced by an attempt
over the next three trading days by the Cartel of Common
Interest to try to hold gold back. This effort will not, I
believe, be able to restrain bullion from launching
another attack on the $400 level beginning no later than
the Friday close."

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Black BladeGlobal Economy Hit by Negative Data, SARS#1008414/4/03; 01:37:53


SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Even as a U.S. advance on Baghdad raised hopes of a quick end to war, faltering growth in the United States and Europe and Asia's deadly virus suggested things could get worse for a fragile world economy.

Black Blade: Grim economic data everywhere and yet the markets appear to be mesmerized by the Iraq War. When the war ends it should be interesting to see what happens with global equities indices.

BelgianPOG#1008434/4/03; 02:39:17

Bang, bang... and the 327$/Oz Siegfried line was broken !
The gold-club is "playing" and has a very big playing-ground now : 390$ - 300$ = a 30% maneuvering space.
All POG ball-games will therefor be played under the 400$ limits. Gold can be branded / percepted as "weak", again within these 300$-400$ bounderies. Above the 400$, Gold will be called "strong" again. A very creative, psychological warfare (strategy) of the gold-club.

Contained POG is re-enforcing the zero IR + dollar-tenacity/hardness. The gold-club has the permission, from the financial/monetary commanders (FED-ECB), to play further on, in a broader field. In other words...Gold's vibrations are constantly increasing in amplitude ! That means nothing less than building on intrinsic strength and value ! Not a phenomenon that should cause any kind of pessimism about the bright future of Gold's final revaluation. All goes well, fellow goldmeisters...ALL GOES VERY WELL !!!

Clint HYellow Metal #1008444/4/03; 02:56:42

Enough! Lets get back to gold.
The Invisible HandIn the unlikely event of a US-UK victory, the euro will replace the Iraqi dinar#1008454/4/03; 03:25:02

From the BBC
Currency change
Earlier this month a US official said a new currency was needed to introduce some stability and that it was unlikely the Saddam dinar would survive.
"There is no question that the international community will assist the Iraqi interim authority in implementing its currency decision whatever it happens to be, perhaps a new currency, perhaps the old Iraqi currency, the Swiss dinar," he said.
A retired US general and president of US defence contractor SY Coleman, Jay Garner, is leading the US-led reconstruction plans and will be influential in deciding the dinar's future.
A more controversial solution reportedly being touted is to replace the dinars with the US dollars, which could upset Iraqis and neighbouring countries.
Could he hatred of the greenback and the reluctance of the people who have called themselves "the liberators" to re-introduce to old Swiss dinar not lead to the euro as a compromise?

KnallgoldWhat do I miss#1008464/4/03; 03:25:59

He who has the Gold makes the rules,we say.
What rules has the european side made so far re: Iraq?
Will the US do the dirty work for the europeans (securing Iraqs oil,but euros being still the currency for it?).I just can't see it here.So far its simply the one with the gun making the rules ($ for Iraqs oil).


BelgianThe liberators and the excluded....#1008474/4/03; 04:07:35

The foreign ministers of Germany, Russia and France (coalition) are meeting after C.Powell's (very small) diplomatic opening, yesterday in Brussels.

The liberator's priority N°:1 is to lower the POO. Target is to increase Iraqi oil-output with 1 million barrils/day, within 2 years ! A much lower POO is desperately needed, because it is the present high OPEC-price that is standing in the way of the financial interventionists ! Low POO, consolidating stockmarkets = re-election and glorification of the entire Bush-administration . That's what the excluded gang of three will discuss. All three have much to lose with the possibility of a rosy Iraqi picture.

The financial/monetary, mega-interventionists, are playing/exploiting these ambiguities in co-ordination with the media/propaganda-machine. The war and plunder-logic is creating the normal divisions and formation of "camps".
This will highten the probabilities of "surprising" turns...increasing IN-stability ...a plague for financials!

Today's Dow futures made wide swings open up to 60 > down to 15 > back up to 50...Yes mega intervention, vibrations with higher amplitudes. POG-fixing very late also.

Note that the POO did not break the 40$ ceiling that it reached for the 3th time in the past three decades. The dollar is therefor to be considered as still in control of the POO, with or without the (unwilling/willing) co-operation of the swing producer Saudi Arabia. Can we (are we correct) in concluding that there is still enough Gold, flowing to the house of Saud or/and that the oil for euro is still a reasonable possibility, even after Iraqi occupation ? Maybe ?

Is it that the ME (Arabian Oil) remains very passive in agreement of the decapitation of the Saddam clan ? And that the real confrontation might be building up in disagreement of the probable confiscation of Iraqi oil and following pressure on Syria, Iran, without making any progress on the ME, road-map (Israel-Palestine) ? Is it in this aftermath that the oil-weapon will be mobilized at its fullest strength ? How will the next chapter look like ?

@ Invisible Hand : James Sinclair seems like a war-correspondent, these days, rather than a highly skilled-experienced, Gold-analyst-authority. Why does James keeps on playing the gold-ball so shortly instead of enlightening us on the Big Goldgame ? Yes, we need a two day close under 327$, to confirm the break. But, POG in € is trending (?) down already, more so than the present €/$ exchange rate changes. For the time being, pluri-interpretable. Maybe on monday, we get more confirmations.

@ All : As a reminder, Pof. Antal Fekete's great essay on the extreme dangers of permanent Interest Rate declines :
* The central bankers as the quartermasters-general of deflation*. Great insights from him ! Catastrophe in the make !

The Invisible HandThe triumvirate and Russian oil pricing#1008484/4/03; 04:52:53

You asked in today's msg#: 100847:
Is it in this aftermath that the oil-weapon will be mobilized at its fullest strength ? How will the next chapter look like ?

As I said in yesterday's msg#: 100828
The end of a (political and/or monetary) regime is announcing in its "latest news" section that the PM of the French regime (the Ancien(t) one?) is saying that the regime of the US of A made a grave error by instituting a war against the Iraqi regime. Why does the French regime make that statement _now_? Since then, I found the URL
France was on the side of peace and law, without being pacifist, Mr Raffarin said, "and we think that with this war we've gone beyond the law".

The reference in the URL box is to today's meeting of the triumvirate which you mention:
The ministers are expected to use the meeting to press again for the United Nations to be given the central role in reconstructing Iraq.
The meeting comes a day after US Secretary of State Colin Powell said in Brussels that the US-led coalition would take the lead in reconstructing the country, and not the UN.
It also follows a strong attack on the war by French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, who said that the United States had erred "morally, politically and strategically"

As I said today in msg#: 100845, less than a minute before Knallgold asked whether the currency of the warmonger or of the gold possessor (Kev indicated that Belgium's gold is in Fort Knox and has thus probably been leased) made the rules, I indicated that the euro could replace the Iraqi dinar.

How will the next chapter look like? Perhaps the triumvirate could start with Russian oil for euro. In that way the Iraqi oil currency transition would be smoother.

Belgian@ Knallgold - @ Invisible#1008494/4/03; 05:12:01

The entire Middle East (and the globe) is on a *** DOLLAR_DERIVATIVE *** monetary system !!!!

Arabian oil is swimming in an ocean of Petrodollars. The ME has been dollarized for the past 3 decades of dollar-rule.
But with this Gulf war II, the WHOLE ME-management (control) has taken a complete new dimension. It is full control, occupation and partial confiscation. Tarek Aziz has been stretching on this everywhere he went. The arabs know it and the doubters will see it, soon.

BTW, all Big Iraqi construction firms are excluded for reconstruction (rumor)!

Yes, indeed, if and when Iraq goes under the dollar will be interpreted as a next big step in the clash of civilizations and be seen as another humiliation instead of another element of undesired liberation. It will add more oil on the INSTABILITY fire ! During the anti war manifestatitions (Indonesia), I saw many pamphlets with dollar-note imitations on it.

The euro will not be lured into a devastating dollar-war-logic. The euro (old Europ in particular) will keep on working, with offering a valuable dollar-alternative, WITHOUT COERCION !!! No, Sir Knallgold...war shall not prevail ! On the contrary, it will make the peaceful and stable euro, more attractive ! Please, don't make a mistake about this.

And as I.H. euro-compromis on Iraq might even be a possibility in a later stadium. Or a dollarized Iraq, exchanging its dollars for euro, the Chinese, Russian way !

The euro is NOT going to blow away the dollar-reserve system with offensive means. The dollar must collapse under its own weght and the present modus operandi of the dollar is a nice guarantee it is doing so. That's why Duisenberg keeps on stressing on price stability within the euro-zone.
PRICE STABILITY !!! In contrast with the dollar's actions !!! And "Stability" is what (distressed) people-nations, hunger for, the most. In other words, In-stability is in the euro's advantage to proliferate and be chosen as more safe than the dollar.

Yes this euro-way of doing is far from spectacular and generating instant results ! Yep, it is the Euroland way !

The general perception (belief) that the euro should be *impotent*, because of its lack of military might, is imvho, a big mistake in the context of the rising, explicit dollar-war-logic. After the Weimar-debacle, Germany is still obsessed with monetary stability ! We (the globe) will experience this again. And, probably, the ME (Arabian oil) first !

Don't forget that the UK, remains "the" joker within the obsessional "coalition" ! WMD "must" be found or Tony will face some real questioning with consequences. The couple of weeks of actual war, are a non-event in proportion of what is to follow, after the invasion/occupation. Remember that Palestine was a Britisch protectorate before the founding of the state of Israel. Arabs overthere have a much bigger sense for history than we, Westerners. Ceasar, Napoleon, Hitler, Stalin and the next one have all come AND GONE !

Do NOT speculate / gamble with Gold !!! Accumulate it discretely as your personal *wealth* while watching all flowers blossoming. FOLLOW THE GIANTS, patiently !!!

Think about the following detail : Gold is increasingly associated with islamism ! No further comments from me.

Belgian@ Invisible#1008504/4/03; 05:21:16

Saw the J.P.Rafarin debate last night on France 2 with Christine Ockrent. France and Germany (Old Europe), implicitely demand to take the leadership of Euroland and make some moves ! Shroeder did NOT remain silent either at yesterday's C.Powel visit. Point !
Read my last detail in previous post and think very deep !

Au-someAxis of Evil#1008514/4/03; 06:14:57

Newspaper Article by John Cleese

Bitter after being snubbed for membership in the "Axis
of Evil", Libya, China, and Syria today announced that
they had formed the "Axis of Just as Evil", which they
said would be more evil than that stupid Iran-Iraq-North
Korea axis President Bush warned of in his State of the
Union address.

Axis of Evil members, however, immediately dismissed the
new Axis as having, for starters, a really dumb name.
"Right. They are just as evil, in their dreams!" declared
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il. "Everybody knows we're
the best evils . . . best at being evil ...we're the best."

Diplomats from Syria denied they were jealous over being
excluded, although they conceded they did ask if they
could join the Axis of Evil. "They told us it was full,"
said Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. "An axis can't have
more than three countries", explained Iraqi President
Saddam Hussein. "This is not my rule, it's tradition.
In World War II you had Germany, Italy, and Japan in the
evil Axis. So, you can only have three, and a secret
handshake. Ours is wickedly cool."

International reaction to Bush's Axis of Evil declaration
was swift, as within minutes, France surrendered.

Elsewhere, peer-conscious nations rushed to gain
triumvirate status in what has become a game of
geopolitical chairs. Cuba, Sudan and Serbia announced
that they had formed the "Axis of Somewhat Evil", forcing
Somalia to join with Uganda and Myanmar in the "Axis of
Occasionally Evil", while Bulgaria, Indonesia and Russia
established the "Axis of Not So Much Evil Really as Just
Generally Disagreeable".

With the criteria suddenly expanded and all the desirable
clubs filling up, Sierra Leone, El Salvador, and Rwanda
applied to be called the "Axis of Countries That Aren't
the Worst But Certainly Won't Be Asked to Host the Olympics".

Canada, Mexico and Australia formed the "Axis of Nations
That Are Actually Quite Nice But Secretly Have Some Nasty
Thoughts About America", while Scotland, New Zealand and
Spain established the "Axis of Countries That Want Sheep
to Wear Lipstick". "That's not a threat, really, just
something we like to do", said Scottish Executive First
Minister Jack McConnell.

While wondering if the other nations of the world weren't
perhaps making fun of him, a cautious Bush granted approval
for most axis, although he rejected the establishment of the
"Axis of Countries Whose Names End in 'guay", accusing one
of its members of filing a false application. Officials
from Paraguay, Uruguay, and Chadguay denied the charges.

SpartacusUS Congress opposes France, Germany, Russia, Syria role in rebuilding#1008524/4/03; 06:20:12

WASHINGTON (AFX) - The House of Representatives late yesterday passed a supplementary budget amendment excluding France, Germany, Russia and Syria from taking part in US-funded reconstruction bids in Iraq, because they oppose the US-led war in Iraq.

Proposed by Minnesota congressman Mark Kennedy and passed by a show of hands, the measure will also bar access by the four countries to information on reconstruction bids. -

Socrates964Invisible Hand#1008534/4/03; 07:27:05

My interpretation of Jim Sinclair is that he was merely pointing out the occurrence of a cyclical bottom in the gold price on April 4, in line with an approximate 4-month cycle in POG. In this way, we should be starting a 6-8 week up-phase, which may get us back to $400 if we're lucky, even if this currently seems like a tall order.
CytekThe monopoly game continues#1008544/4/03; 09:30:22

Facts remain. The war IS about oil being priced in dollars. Putting the fear factor in OPEC to keep the old OPEC deal pledge to price oil in dollars.It means Germany and France got slapped and have to work new deals to get euro float peddled for oil. The bullets are the paper fiat. The rise in the dollar may continue until those deals get worked out. It may be awhile. The gold bull has just started and the US-Japan-UK alliance is the new NATO. Australia is clearly in the US camp as is Britian because their tourist industry just got a few more million visitors for the next 5 years for supporting us.
I wonder if the big banks are realizing that if things fall apart, gold is still real money. Will they want a gold supply for a safety net. Not to own it now but the ability to invest on a grand scale if needed. If you can't back your currency with above ground gold then you do it with below ground gold. I expect SA goldstocks to be shorted down in NY. Expect EU banks to buy them up. New lines are being drawn. The UK is going to posture and play both sides. Lip service to the Euro crowd and heavy into dollars but wanting better terms to throw in with the Euro. EU members have to lure the UK away from USA with better terms to make it so good that the UK would risk offending the US Fed, won't happen anytime soon. This is early in the monopoly game, UK won't get it's price for Park Avenue now even if the ECB's have Boardwalk. Meanwhile the FED keeps dipping into the Treasury chest and prints more greenbacks while U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow on Friday again asked Congress to raise the limit on governmental borrowing, 6.4 Gazillion. Meanwhile the USA has the rest of the Monopoly board.
Seems like the capitulation selloff on some goldstocks may start to slow. Selling volume is drying up. I'm holding through it. May not be much price improvement opportunity. The rebound eventually may be a sudden spike and a very large one. The short attack on gold will probably get over extended. Then the snap back up is something we don't want to miss.

Buena FeCytek#1008554/4/03; 09:44:50

great analysis sir

wild cards;
-worldwide animosity to present regime in washington builds into trade wars, latin america imitates russia and china and begins to un$ize
-us can't attack everyone, the anti$ gang capitilizes on its momentum from what it is calling "an illegal/iligitimate war" and systematically pulls out the tooth picks that prop up the $ market (iraq oil will remain priced in euro, watch the political fight over that one in the un)

euro is no longterm saint, just the next man-system to be given the stage for awhile. gold is king

BelgianHenry C K Liu - Asiatimes#1008564/4/03; 09:52:08

Is painting a grim picture with a not so worst scenario.
adminMK's Commentary and Review Updated#1008574/4/03; 09:59:10

"Gold's recent decline into the $320s has little or nothing to do with economic fundamentals and everything to do with the background rumble that corresponds prototypically with the madness of crowds -- and we've certainly had our share of madness lately with wild swings in stocks, bonds and yes, the yellow metal as well. The hedge-funds and speculators in general took advantage of war sentiment to push gold to an exaggerated low just as the bulls pushed gold to an exaggerated high at the $390
level. Typically gold's enemies. . . . "

Also, three new Important Links.

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Daniel DruffENCORE!#1008594/4/03; 10:32:37


MK Comment: All paper currencies are suspect -- not just the U.S. dollar (though it's on-going debasement is probably the most far-reaching in the world economy). Orchestrated currency debasement with its attendant misallocations and consequences has become the economic policy of the day, and something investors need to plug into their portfolio planning no matter where they hold citizenship. Beyond that, David Fuller, whose insightful writings I have followed for nearly 20 years, is absolutely correct in saying that the gold market hasn't even begun to feel the effects of the international scramble for gold being joined by American and European investors. Their entry is likely to severely strain an already limited supply of gold coins and bullion. If you are thinking of buying gold, do it now while things are relatively quiet. You will be glad you did.

Curtain Call

Beyond that, David Fuller, whose insightful writings I have followed for nearly 20 years, is absolutely correct in saying that the gold market hasn't even begun to feel the effects of the international scramble for gold being joined by American and European investors.

Socrates964Cytek#10086004/04/03; 10:55:37

Like water finding its own level doesn't US arm twisting of oil producers to price in $$$ just provide a huge incentive for Europe/Russia/China to short the $ in order to reduce their local currency oil bill. This also has the end effect of stiffing the Japanese as they will never quite get away with that devaluation of the yen.

IMHO, the point about this whole 'oil war is really a currency war' argument is that it doesn't work in half measures, and certainly doesn't work when you only take over 1/3 of your own import needs (as is the case with Iraq).

What is to stop another oil producer scrupulously observing $ pricing in the spot market but signing private supply contracts with euro clauses short of a full-scale invasion? Or hiding an oil for euros deal by putting a bank in the middle and doing some off-balance sheet swaps.

BTW, Buena Fe, I can't see any S American countries (with the possible exception of Venezuela) indulging in anti-$ bravado since they are too heavily dependent on US capital for it to be in their interests to do so. The most I see happening is a passive shift in the composition of foreign reserves arising from a shift in their export mix.

Buena Fethe next battle#10086104/04/03; 11:05:15

UN spells out limits of US post-conflict rights

By Mark Turner at the United Nations

Published: April 3 2003 19:41 | Last Updated: April 3 2003 19:41

Mark Malloch Brown, head of the United Nations Development Programme, said on Thursday the US would have little choice but to return to the UN in establishing a post-conflict Iraq administration, stressing it had no international right to take over Iraq's oil industry, and warning that rebuilding costs would far exceed current oil revenues...........

Daniel DruffSadam Seen On Baghdad Blvd#10086204/04/03; 11:13:54

Wars are very expensive especially when the price is paid by an increase in consumption with a comparable decrease in production...our guys are not planting wheat at the moment.

We are sure to see a few shortages before long, as well as fewer personal appearances by Sadam.


steadyab532 in nevada#10086304/04/03; 11:47:17

rember the debate and vote take place today as soon as the floor session end ther committie will convien to begin debate on the bill. you should be able to listen to the debate at the provided link look on the right side under listen live!
Ag MountainHenry C K Liu shows cracks in the dollar as an international institution#10086404/04/03; 11:48:32

April 4

"There is no doubt the US will prevail over Iraq in the long run. It is merely a question of at what cost in lives, money and time. Thus far, a lot of pre-war estimates have had to be readjusted and a lot of pre-war myths about popular support for US "liberation" within Iraq have had to be re-evaluated. Time is not on America's side, and the cost is not merely financial. America's superpower status is at stake."


"There is no point in winning the war to lose the peace. Military power cannot be used without political constraint, which limits its indiscriminate application. The objective of war is not merely to kill, but to impose political control by force. Therein lies the weakest part of the US war plan to date. The plan lacks a focus of what political control it aims to establish."


"Only when a nation is already occupied by a foreign power can the theme of liberation by another foreign power be regarded with credibility. A foreign power liberating a nation from its nationalist government is a very hard sell. The US manipulates its reason for invading Iraq like a magician pulling color scarves out a breast pocket. First it was self defense against terrorism, then it was to disarm Iraq of WMD, now it invades to liberate the Iraqi people form their demonic leader. Soon it will be to bring prosperity to the Iraqi people by taking control of their oil, or to save them from their tragic fate of belonging to a malignant civilization."


"Globally, two traditional allies of the US, France and Germany, will now want to be treated with more equal status with more political independence. The European Union may even begin to claim the moral high ground in world affairs over the US, promoting more tolerance for diversity of cultural values and historical conditions, over the impositions of US values as a universal standard for the whole world, for which no non-US citizens will be willing to die to implement. Even US citizens may only be willing to die to defend the US, but not to project by force US values all over the world, particularly if this war should show that even with much sacrifice in the form of American soldiers' lives, success remains elusive."


"If the war drags on further, or if the economy does not bounce back when the fighting ends, Fed officials have suggested they are prepared to pump money into the economy by reducing interest rates even more than they have done already.

"Despite its institutional role as an central bank that is independent of political influence, the Fed is constitutionally obliged to support the White House on national security issues that affect the economy. Thus Greenspan has not made public any anxiety he may have about the endless costs of war or the risks of disruption to world oil supplies, in aquiescence of Bush's war plans. Greenspan was reported to have been at the White House at least three times in the first 10 days of the war"


"Greenspan's reputation was built mostly on his response to financial crises. When the stock market crashed on October 19, 1987, two months after Greenspan became chairman, the Fed lent tens of billions of dollars to financial institutions and pushed down overnight lending rates. The moves flooded financial markets with money, which helped preserve liquidity and restore confidence in the financial system, but it started the bubble economy of the 1990s.

"After the attacks on September 11, 2001, the Fed pumped $100 billion into the monetary system in four days. On September 12 alone, the Fed lent a handful of key banks $46 billion unconditionally. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which runs the Fed's trading operations, flooded the banking system with additional billions of dollars by buying up treasury securities at record volumes throughout the week."


"Greenspan and other Fed officials have recently insisted that even if the overnight Fed funds rate is lowered to zero, they still have other tools to stimulate the economy. The Fed can buy longer-term Treasury securities, such as two-year or five-year or even ten-year securities. By paying cash for such securities, the Fed would essentially be pumping money into the economy and pushing long-term interest rates even lower from the current 4.5 percent to 2.5 percent. But that would be virgin territory for the Fed, and officials have acknowledged that the precise impact would be unpredictable."

"The Fed's easy-money policies have already stimulated home buying and refinancing But this easy money has done nothing to rejuvenate business spending, Furthermore, abrupt changes in interest rates, particularly long-term rates, does violence to structured finance (derivatives) which is already exceedingly precarious. The Fed may fall into the trap of setting off an implosions of derivative defaults, what Warren Buffet has called "financial weapons of mass destruction".


"This war has succeeded in pushing Russia, France, Germany and China closer, in contrast if not in opposition to US interests worldwide, a significant development with long term implications that are difficult to assess at present. Globalization is dealt a final blow by this war. The airlines are dead and without air travel, globalization is merely a slogan. The freezing of Iraq foreign assets is destroying the image of the US as a financial safe haven."

Not exactly a nurturing environment for continuing international acceptence'strength, or stability for America's biggest franchise and most lucrative export, the dollar.

Buena Feapples to apples?#10086504/04/03; 12:10:09;jsessionid=EPSBO3DYWPN2WCRBAEKSFFA?type=focusIraqNews&storyID=2510532

Human Shields in Baghdad Say They Sense Success
Fri April 04, 2003 12:19 PM ET
By Khaled Yacoub Oweis
BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Foreigners acting as "human shields" in Baghdad said on Friday they sense success in their mission to preserve vital facilities in the Iraqi capital.........
........"We are ordinary people who do not want America to rule the world," he said.

no matter if you agree with their politics or not they're brave souls. in a sense goldbugs are of kindred spirit, buying gold in the face of cabal bombardment ... because they don't want the fiaters to rule the world!

go gold

Daniel DruffAg Mountain#10086604/04/03; 12:14:36

Mr. C K Liu

Is the article written with the understanding that the Dollar is worthy of salvation, if only we hadn't made a mistake? I hate to make a reading commitment hastily.

The world needs a new monetary system. Any attempt to repair this one is a waste of time, imho.

Ag MountainD Druff; is the dollar worthy of salvation??#10086704/04/03; 13:19:59

I don't think that question is on the table for anyone to try to judge. What's to judge? What I mean is, looking at a dollar, what's to save? Isn't that like looking at a light-year or a decibel or a millisecond and asking if they are worthy of salvation?

The dollar is nothing to be saved or not saved the way I see it. It's how its used that matters. So if you're asking about whether the dollar-centric reserve system of international banking is worthy of salvation, now we're getting somewhere. No, CK Liu doesn't waste his time on the obvious.

Daniel DruffAg Mountain#10086804/04/03; 13:56:09

Well then, I'll give him a read, thanks

Ag Mountain (04/04/03; 13:19:59MT - msg#: 100867)
"D Druff; is the dollar worthy of Salvation??"..."So if you're asking about whether the dollar-centric reserve system of international banking is worthy of salvation, now we're getting somewhere. No, CK Liu doesn't waste his time on the obvious."

cockerel1Middle East Oil may not get to market!#10086904/04/03; 14:21:54

If this strategic stretch of water does in fact get shut down for any period of time, I can see Russian oil being a hot commodity.


Black BladeRecession signals: Flashing yellow #10087004/04/03; 14:22:45

The four key indicators of economic health are sagging.


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - As expected, the second big economic shoe dropped this week and hit with a resounding thud: another big job loss in March and an even bigger one in February than was previously announced. Add that to news this week of a downturn in manufacturing and what do you get? Two important recession signals flashing the same message: Danger Will Robinson!

1. Employment - the number of jobs created each month
2. Industrial output -- mainly manufacturing
3. Personal income -- think monthly paycheck
4. Business sales -- wholesale and retail

It's worth noting what's NOT on that list:

1. Two quarters of negative GDP (gross domestic product) growth
2. The unemployment rate

First, the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) states explicitly that recession is NOT defined by negative GDP changes. They use the four "coincident" indicators of the economy listed above.

Jared Bernstein, labor economist at the Economic Policy Institute, this morning on a special edition of CNN Money Morning pointed out that the fact that the unemployment rate hasn't risen more recently is that many people have gotten discouraged and just stopped looking for work. It's true that the way the household survey works, if you're out of work, and the government calls you, and you say, "Things look so bad I just didn't go job hunting this week," then you are no longer in the labor force -- because you stopped looking! And if you aren't in the labor force, you can no longer be counted as unemployed. That's why I said the relatively steady unemployment rate may be a red herring.

Black Blade: I generally agree. We are however, still in a recession but that said, if the unemployment rate were accurately tabulated by the BLS the economic picture looks especially grim (often pointed out by John Crudele of the New York Post among others). By a careful reading of BLS report 641 one sees the obvious flaws in the data. BLS Unemployment data trends (even if flawed) can give an indication of how desperate the economic picture is shaping up. Unemployment is definitely rising. Note that few financial media cheerleaders rarely announce the consistent upward revisions of the previous month's unemployment data or discuss the growing problem of "under employment". Kathleen Hays is correct about the usual simpleton response about a recession requiring two successive quarters of negative GDP often touted by overpaid and under educated media economists.

Note: Kathleen Hays used to be the "bond lady" at CNBC. Her typically downbeat reports obviously did not get many "on air" cheers from her colleagues. When she left for CNNfn it was without the usual fanfare and tearful "goodbyes" that others received. She simply "disappeared" faster that an Iraqi dissident. I can't say what her reason for leaving was (perhaps a better deal from a competing network or not being a "team player" maybe?), but when Terry Keenan, also a CNBC alumni left for FOX's "Cashin In" (actually a fairly balanced financial discussion group) there were several "on air" missives and tearful "goodbyes". "Interesting"

Black BladeMorgan Stanley sees global recession #10087104/04/03; 14:29:55

Firm expects economic growth at or below 2.5%, citing war, geopolitical uncertainties and SARS.


LONDON (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley said Friday it is cutting its forecast for the global economy to recession, citing war, geopolitical uncertainties and most recently, the impact of the SARS virus on Asian growth. Morgan Stanley said it is the first Wall Street bank to forecast world recession. The usual definition for recession in a single country is two consecutive quarters of contraction. However, as the entire world is unlikely to contract simultaneously, economists say low levels of global growth is the equivalent of world recession.

Black Blade: Eat your heart out Barton Biggs. Is one reason he is leaving MS? Interesting that MS is the only banker to see recession when it is only stating the obvious.

AristotleGold buyers should think as a CONSUMER, not a typical modern-day investor/speculator#10087204/04/03; 14:36:05

Up front warning: Friday stuff again, feel free to scroll.

Picture the scene. You're driving your car and the gas gauge is approaching empty. As you scan the roadside all the way to the horizon for one or more of those ubiquitous filling station signs, you note that the prices per gallon are all nearly 15 cents lower than they were the last time you filled up.

Do you react to this circumstance with anger, "Those b*stards! The ESF and the cabal are sticking to the little guy!" or do you feel pleased, "Hey hey! Looks like I caught a break today!"? Do you watch the price of gasoline as a consumer, or as an investor?

I think it's safe to say that most people who are regular buyers of gasoline are of like mind on this point: getting more gasoline for your money is a positive thing.

Routine buyers of Gold see it the same way. "Gold is cheaper this week? Great! More Gold is better than less Gold."

Whenever I see some whining among internet talkers about freshly fallen Gold prices, I think to myself, "Hmmmmmmm... no discernible brain... and yet it can use a computer and emote!" I feel comfortable being frank about this without offending anyone here because most USAGOLDers appear to know the score.

At its most basic, there are two phases in a person's life:

1) Sunlight. The productive portion in which you build and accumulate wealth as a capable individual.

2) Twilight. The portion in which you are not productive -- infirm or in easy retirement -- and sustain yourself upon the wealth and resources that you acquired while the sun was shining on your shoulders.

Most *most* MOST people in the wide world that you'll ever encounter who are mindful of Gold will have the right perspective as a consumer, not an investor. They welcome the intermittant occasions of cheap Gold because they recognize that more wealth is better than less, that more Gold in their hands is better than less Gold.

They (we) can comfortably hold that perspective because we understand that the greater portion of our lives are conducted in the Sunlight -- being productive. We build our houses and build up our estates (with Gold) and feed our bellies and drive our cars, trying to get the most out of our money all along the way. Then, when you enter the Twilight hours, having lived a good (see the Greek Aristotle on full meaning of "good") life under the sun your destiny will be secure with ample resources of wealth to draw upon.

Over the course of your lifetime, you'll find that your digital/papery money is very good and spendible in the short term, so spend it as regularly as you earn it toward building up your longterm tangible wealth to function as your Twilight fund. Like gasoline, the price of Gold will see-saw on its way up over time even as your money's value see-saws on its way down with sudden inexplicable shocks and all.

The good folks of the world who follow that program are on the whole happier and more secure than had they not. Ask anyone who has ridden out national currency crises with their savings safely in the form of Gold.

I think it's a safe assumption that the internet talkers who whine of intermittant low Gold prices are examples of folks who didn't live a good life in the sun, and find themselves now standing at the plate with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning. They've only got a few pitches to work with and are desperately swinging for the fence while cursing the arrival of any curve balls. Be that as it may, Gold is indeed the best bet to serve up a homerun ball, so I certainly wish these people good luck to still be standing and swinging when it comes. But I don't care for their immature belly-aching.

On the other side of the field, the good, mature and professional players have been positioning themselves and building toward the happy outcome throughout the WHOLE game. Take control of your own destiny as part of your life's gameplan. Acquire wealth early, acquire wealth often. Spend wisely and get the most for your money. After all, you're basically fueling up for the Twilight hours of your own choosing.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

steadythe debate has started.#10087304/04/03; 14:39:16

its live now via the net!
Black BladeStates consider raising beer taxes to help balance the budget#10087404/04/03; 14:39:44


PHILADELPHIA (AP) — With cash tight and bills looming, legislators around the country are turning to neighborhood pubs to help them drown their sorrows: At least 19 states are considering plans to boost beer taxes. Rep. Phil English, R-Pa., who has been fighting for a reduction in the $18-a-barrel federal beer tax, said brewers will simply pass the cost to customers. "It is typically working families who will use beer, and they are going to be the ones stuck paying this tax," English said. "The governor's rich Philadelphia donors go home and have a scotch. Why shouldn't their taxes be raised?" At least 23 states have considered raising beer taxes in the past two years, but only a handful of proposals have passed, according to The Beer Institute, an industry lobbying group. Wyoming lawmakers shot down a proposal to raise their 2-cent beer tax, the lowest in the nation, in January.

Black Blade: Bring on pestilence, war, and famine – but raise the price of BEER! God have mercy! Now that's a tragedy! Thankfully I live in Wyoming. Whew – I dodged a bullet on that one.

Black BladeTrading like lemmings #10087504/04/03; 14:55:27

The pack-like behavior of stock traders has reached extremes not seen since 1987.


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The Tilt-A-Whirl has nothing on the global markets lately, where the speed with which traders have been shifting positions has been enough to make anybody's stomach spin. One moment the war is going poorly, sending cash pouring into safe-haven assets, like government bonds and gold, jacking the price of oil higher, hammering stocks and the U.S. dollar. The next, the war is going well again, and all these "war trades" that have been put on get suddenly unwound. With traders running from one side of the boat to the other, one can hardly say that global markets are on an even keel. Making matters even worse, the traders in different markets are all taking cues from one another, creating a magnifying effect on each move. Oil goes up so stocks go down so bonds go higher so oil goes up some more.

Black Blade: Lemmings indeed. The winners tend to "cut against the grain" and as far as contrarian investing is concerned gains are slow but sure (as long as fundamentals are observed and value is key). In the current market that makes precious metals a screaming buy. At least gives one a bit more bang for the buck if dollar cost averaging into a precious metals position. Obviously precious metals investors are definitely not Lemmings.

steadyaugh#10087604/04/03; 15:02:06

augh right in th emiddele of the debate im told our net work will going off line for 30 min dangit to all get out aughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
Black BladeFears of a steeper decline for the dollar#10087704/04/03; 15:11:31


For many economists, the dollar's jagged yearlong slide is a side effect of an inevitable contraction in the huge U.S. trade deficit. But current economic and political conditions are making the process more perilous than it might otherwise have been. Recently, the dollar's exchange rates have bounced up and down with news from the Iraq war. But the dollar's overall trend in the past 12 months has been downward. A deeper decline could be on the way. The run-up to war hurt the U.S. economy, and fears of similar conflicts to follow could deter foreigners from holding dollar-denominated securities. With less demand for the securities, there would be less need for dollars. The falling dollar has helped some U.S. companies to increase their exports, but not enough to counteract the effects of a middling global economy.

According to a report by Morgan Stanley, foreign investors' demand for Treasury securities suddenly slackened. And well before the possibility of a war in Iraq began to concern investors, corporate scandals pushed foreigners to shift their portfolios away from American securities, said a senior executive of a major European bank. In addition to the changes in portfolios, the pace of foreigners' direct investment in the United States has slowed. All U.S. companies could suffer if foreign capital being pulled out is not replaced by domestic savings. The Treasury also needs foreigners to stay interested in dollar-denominated securities. Estimates by the Bond Market Association, a trade group, foreigners hold about 35 percent of the nation's outstanding debt. The Treasury's borrowing requirements seem likely to balloon as a result of the Iraq war, the sluggish economy and President George W. Bush's tax cuts. If demand for that debt falls at the same time, interest rates could rise.

Black Blade: The US dollar is still grossly overvalued even after a 20% drop but remains propped up by foreign monetary policies where domestic currencies are purposely weakened (most notably in Japan) for a competitive edge in shrinking export markets. Once the war is concluded the question is whether investors will take a serious view of the deteriorating global economy or find some other dubious reason to keep investing in US assets? It should get rather interesting if we keep getting more grim economic data like we did this week.

Black BladeConsumers Digging Deep To Save Money#10087804/04/03; 15:25:19


Consumers are feeling the pinch of slower income growth and sharply higher fuel costs. Many are worried not only about the war but also about their devastated retirement accounts and job security. Like a tight boot at the end of a long march, the economy's post-bubble malaise is starting to chafe. People with well-paying jobs -- who a year ago were spending cash they received when they refinanced their mortgages -- now are forgoing affordable luxuries. "Sentiment is influenced by things like income, wealth and the employment rate, but also by general anxiety about the war with Iraq," said Ben Herzon, senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers. Will a decisive victory offer a cure? Economists are divided, but many including Goolsbee predict the conflict will do little to jolt the economy back to life.

Black Blade: The consumer is tapped out and as consumer spending is two thirds of the economy, it does not look good. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months’ expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

AristotleBlack Blade, please teach me some speaking English (not political English!)#10087904/04/03; 15:26:10

Rep. Phil English, R-Pa. said, "It is typically working families who will use beer..."

Use? **USE**???!

What on earth do working families use it for? To fill swimming pools?

Sheeeeeesh. It that some kinda warped political correctness? Whatever happened to *drinking* the stuff?

Pardon me while I *use* a refreshing glass of lemonade... to whet my thirst for the beer I'm about to drink!

I guess Gold and beer have something in common. You shortchange yourself if you don't know their proper use.

Here's a mnemonic device to help us all out.

"Stink like beer? Drink it here.
Stink like Gold? Drink it later."

Gold. Good for a lifetime. Get you some. --- Ari

Black BladeJapan Gives Banks More Time to Avoid Nationalization #10088004/04/03; 15:40:06


Tokyo, April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Japan gave banks more time to prove they don't need to be nationalized, a plan investors say is too vague to bolster confidence after the top five lenders disclosed almost $30 billion of net losses. The government owns preferred stock in 23 banks after it invested 7 trillion yen ($59 billion) in three years to shore up capital eroded by bad loans. Converting the securities into common shares would make it the biggest shareholder in most banks. Failure to pay dividends for two straight years on preferred stock owned by the government may trigger conversion, the Financial Services Agency said. It didn't have a timeline before, saying it might take stakes in banks with deteriorating finances. Banks that have capital levels of half the minimum set by regulators might also be taken over, the agency said.

Black Blade: Let's see – An insolvent banking sector, banks on the verge of being nationalized, the end of unlimited insurance guarantees on savings accounts, the MOF throwing away trillions of yen in a desperate bid to weaken the Yen, an economy mired in a 20 year deflationary depression, rising unemployment, etc. It would not be surprising to see Japanese buying up gold again in "Japanese Gold Rush – part 2".

Black BladeAri - Beer "Use"#10088104/04/03; 15:45:59

I missed that one. Perhaps it was a Freudian slip referring to "use beer" to drown their sorrows over recent economic woes maybe? Cheers!

- Black Blade

BTW, I have a few Negra Modelos on ice for when I return from my daily jaunt to the gym. I will "use" some to soothe my internal aches and pains. ;-)

Hey any excuse will do right?

Black BladeIMF sees chance of U.S. housing bust#10088204/04/03; 16:04:00

Boom in market could turn to slump


WASHINGTON -- One more threat for the fragile economy: America's booming housing market could be headed for a bust. In a survey of global economic dangers, the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday that the housing market, after two years of record sales and strong increases in home prices, could be about to slump. The study said that based on experience, a housing bubble in an industrial country has a 40 percent chance of being followed by a sharp drop in prices. It did not explicitly forecast a bust, but did raise concerns, especially because past housing declines have been associated with periods of global economic weakness, such as the U.S. recessions in 1991-92 and 1981-82. The IMF study contrasts with Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's belief that the U.S. housing industry is not headed for a sharp falloff in sales or prices.

Black Blade: Signs of a possible "real estate bubble" bust have been showing up over the last few months. Housing prices have risen faster than incomes and that alone is unsustainable.

Now off to the gym and then to tackle those Negra Models. To "use" for "medicinal purposes" – I swear! (wink wink).

TownCrierYou can't afford to live on past promises when change is ever a whisper away#10088304/04/03; 16:22:06

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The U.S. Treasury Department is considering dropping the defunct 30-year bond as a key pension benchmark, but hasn't indicated how or when it will act.

Replacing the benchmark could cut the amount of benefits employees receive by billions of dollars, depending on the new rate chosen. If a change doesn't occur this year, however, some companies may have to contribute millions more to their pension plans.

The Treasury Department stopped issuing 30-year bonds in 2001, but the remaining bonds continue to trade. A 1974 federal law known as the Employee Retirement Income Security Act says corporate pension funds must use the 30-year rate. A stopgap measure Congress put into place in 2002 to let funds get around using the rate expires this year.

-----(see url for article)-----

What can you count on these days when bonds can come and go and rules can change against your favor as easily as otherwise? Gold. Contact Centennial for a diversification strategy that's right for you.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.In bookstores it retails for $14.95. But you know the author! Get it here for $5.95#10088404/04/03; 16:38:28

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

steadynevada silver coins bill ab 532#10088504/04/03; 17:02:55

the committie discussed this bill for over an hour. no vote was taken! before next friday , the committie will , on the floor during a floor session will go behind the bar and vote on whether to bring the bill to the floor or not.
yes the state wants to raise no tax revenue which they would get by issusung these silver coins. also there was discussion of having a local currency/money in case of a terroristic attack leaves the current monetary system in disarray.

but the real shocker is this and ill let teh cat out of the bag here.

IDAHO HAS A SIMILAR BILL!! YOU WONT FIND THIS INFO ANYWHERE ELSE. Mr. horton said Idaho was trying to keep it on the quiet!
two states know for precious metals are taking the lead. im on there bandwagaon, there is plenty of room, even for sceptics like aristotle!

R PowellSteady#10088604/04/03; 18:02:19

Interesting. Thanks for keeping an ear open for those of us whose computers are deaf.

Thanks also to M.K. for the renewed reports. Your command of language along with your lifelong dealings with precious metals combined with your unique viewpoint and, may I guess, personal contacts, should produce valuable reading for us all. Also, I always smile when the mailbox holds a "News and Views".

Friday again already?
Happy Weekend!

Daniel Druffsteady#10088704/04/03; 19:20:07

Membeship growing in the AB532 Society

Sir steady, Usul, Daniel Druff, R Powell but no Aristotle...yet.


21mabry1880#10088804/04/03; 20:13:29

I was doining some research and ran across an advertisment from 1880.A dentist was advertising teeth pulling 1 dollar a tooth, fillings were 1 dollar per gold filling,50 cents per silver filling. Just thought it was interesting.
Black BladeBattle of Baghdad - "Game On"#10088904/04/03; 21:13:25

FOX reports that US troops of the 3rd Division are in the city of fighting in an industrial area on the east side. Reporters assigned (or that "embedded"? Hmmm...) to the troops are reporting from the front. Tanks and Bradley armored vehicles are apparently waxing Iraqi Republican Guards on their way to city center. US Marines apparently are moving into the city from the west as well. A-10 Thunderbolts are giving cover. Special Forces reportedly have been inside Baghdad for a few days and targeting Iraqi positions. "Game On"

- Black Blade

Mr GreshamClink! Clink!#10089004/04/03; 22:26:15

Henri, you still out there?

Don't forget to ring the register, everyone. Heard the beginning today of another excuse for someone not paying me; just the small outcropping of a mass phenom to grow even more.

Fiat currency is welching on the biggest scale, guys in the best suits playing anyone for whatever trust they'll give, until they have the most goodies hidden in their bag, then off they go... (Anyone -- R Powell? -- ever sub in construction and watch all the ways GCs got out of paying you, when you were young and naive? Now, I'm just old and cynical -- sighhhhh...)

I will gladly pay you Tuesday (and in Iraqi dinars) for a hamburger today.

WaveriderThe Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures #1008914/5/03; 07:25:40

"The US economy is on the verge of collapse, and the whole world is going down with it. Or so Richard Duncan would have us believe. His new book The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures offers an unabashedly alarmist view of the imminent unraveling of the global economy - an outcome he argues has now become unavoidable. And as a longtime financial analyst in Asia who predicted the impending collapse of the Thai economy as early as 1993 and worked as a consultant for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) during the height of the Asian crisis, he knows a thing or two about financial crashes."

Waverider: Richard Duncan's book "The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures may be of interest.

silvercollectorAristotle#1008924/5/03; 08:16:08

Your 'Sunlight/Twilight' post is poetic, easy to understand, easy to appreciate. May I quote a passage?

"At its most basic, there are two phases in a person's life:

1) Sunlight. The productive portion in which you build and accumulate wealth as a capable individual.

2) Twilight. The portion in which you are not productive -- infirm or in easy retirement -- and sustain yourself upon the wealth and resources that you acquired while the sun was shining on your shoulders."


"They (we) can comfortably hold that perspective because we understand that the greater portion of our lives are conducted in the Sunlight -- being productive. We build our houses and build up our estates (with Gold) and feed our bellies and drive our cars, trying to get the most out of our money all along the way. Then, when you enter the Twilight hours, having lived a good (see the Greek Aristotle on full meaning of "good") life under the sun your destiny will be secure with ample resources of wealth to draw upon."

Very nice....very clear. Utopian.

However, being a J6P and a John Doe I have a question. As I passed through my 20's and entered my early 30's I realized that my Twilight years were in jeopardy. I did the right things, I started a 'savings' program, I didn't spend foolishly, I sought value and invested in hard assets. As I rolled into my early 40's I began to realize that I was going to fall short of my Twilight goals. A sense of despair has set in as I reach my 43rd year. As paycheck to paycheck passes I cannot and will not successfully rollover into the Twilight zone.

With the irrational dollar exurberance since '95/'96 even I, a newbie to financial affairs understand that this tangent cannot continue forever.

With this war priced to perfection (on success) I felt the need to leverage as the sense of despair begins to mutant into panic. Please understand, as I restate my point above, that I must leapfrog several steps in order to enter the Twilight zone.

I have borrowed on equity and run lines of credit to the max in order to accomodate this goal. Foolish perhaps from your point of view, a necessary evil fom mine.

As I have listened to your messages for a long time I can really say that I enjoy them, however I sense that you are in the pleasant position to flaunt your successes both past and present and you have little concern for the 'little guy'. You have many times expressed a self-admitted attitute that you are above the need to 'sweat it out'. You have said this not I.

I ask you, as a 'senior' on this forum to allow latitude for the 'little guy'. Please understand that following "in the footsteps of giants" is not an easy task and occasionally we get stepped on and the quest ends. As you have secured entry into the Twilight zone many of us see the corridors closing and it is indeed frightening.

If you are a true warrior please get off your 'golden' horse and help a fallen soldier. I fear as I bleed to death on this frozen tundra you will ride into the sunset and I will close my eyes for a last time.

CometoseNo NEWS IS GOOD????? NEWS????#1008934/5/03; 10:13:40

News black out on drudge this morning ; Is this from lack of interst on a Saturday morning or is there something else afoot?
Mr GreshamRichebacher on bad economics#1008944/5/03; 10:21:52

and stock market scamming.
Mr Greshamsilvercollector#1008954/5/03; 10:48:41

Eloquent and points well made. Unfortunate you did the right thing and bought PMs "too early" but consider that 100% gains in a year is the same as 3% annual growth over 20 years or so. With both POS/POG and interest rates suppressed below rational market levels, you are making, or holding, a good risk/reward position. I won't say "Don't despair", for these are desperate times, but keep your plan working, and don't sell unless you have a better plan.

As always, attention to your career (and above that your health and relationships) are the best avenues to future wealth. Like the stock market gamblers of 1999, we distract ourselves more than ever in this era with dreams of "the big score." Ari presents the more classic, if somewhat caustic, contraire to that fantasy.

Who knows -- maybe he's always been that way, or maybe he learned the hard way, too, and is sharing wisdom gained expensively?

OTOH, in a MacArthuresque mood that comes over me at times like this, I want to also say "There is no substitute for making lots of money, quickly, with the least painful effort, and then hanging onto it."

Obviously, PMs are intended, going forward, to be a great way to hang on to it. Whether they'll also be a good way to make more of it remains to be seen. And if you get any good ideas about accomplishing the first part of my prescription above, just let me know. (I've got my secret decoder ring right here, so you can post it -- in our special code -- right here (!!!) on the USAGold forum and then I'll go and do it! ;)

Daniel DruffWaverider#10089604/05/03; 12:17:08

Long on Causes and Consequences, short on Cures

Waverider: Richard Duncan's book "The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures may be of interest.

David Peters, book reviewer: "The first of his two policy suggestions to mitigate the coming collapse touches on this issue, advocating a global minimum wage, enforced by international treaty."

A global minimum wage is sure to straighten everything out, ha!

"Duncan's other policy suggestion is to create a global central bank (he nominates the International Monetary Fund for the job), which could engineer a controlled increase in the global money supply by allocating new reserves according to criteria that could include development priorities."

Oh, this is really good...a global minimum wage with the IMF in charge, BRILLIANT! [To think that people actually believe this type of thing, amazing.]

Thanks for the chuckle,

R PowellPayment // Mr Gresham#10089704/05/03; 13:59:41

The readiness of payment, as you know, is often one of the first signs of a slowdown in the construction business. I ask for nothing up front but for payment in full (labor only) upon completion (same day for concrete work!). No problem with my regulars so far but the Ready-mix company I prefer is not accepting any new business accounts, just COD orders.

You mentioned.....

"Fiat currency is welching on the biggest scale, guys in the best suits playing anyone for whatever trust they'll give, until they have the most goodies hidden in their bag, then off they go... (Anyone -- R Powell? -- ever sub in construction and watch all the ways GCs got out of paying you, when you were young and naive? Now, I'm just old and cynical -- sighhhhh...)

I will gladly pay you Tuesday (and in Iraqi dinars) for a hamburger today."

I have gladly passed up work in the past whenever the payment schedule involved waiting, especially upon the acceptable work performance of others sometimes necessary to reach a certain bank determined point of project completion. I reached that cynical stage before I reached old age but now that I have sucessfully attained both, I can wryly state that my insistence on payment-in-full upon completion is based on the same human deceit and frailty that is the major compeling basis for physical gold and silver hoarding. Whether by intentioned deceit or by that misfortune implied in the expression "best laid plans of mice and men", the fact remains that none of us is always correct in the assessment of any situation, whether work related or of a financial nature. IMHO now might be an excellent time to "buy" into the safety of gold and silver while, at the same time, investing in an appreciating financial sector. The coming rise in the fiat POG and POS will reflect a depreciating dollar, negative interest returns (great Hamilton essay this week), the unveiling of a severe supply/demand deficit (especially in silver) and perhaps even the madness of crowds. It will be most enjoyable to watch.
Happy weekend

R PowellSilvercollector#10089804/05/03; 15:35:09

You are by no means alone when you describe debt....

"With this war priced to perfection (on success) I felt the need to leverage as the sense of despair begins to mutant into panic. Please understand, as I restate my point above, that I must leapfrog several steps in order to enter the Twilight zone.

I have borrowed on equity and run lines of credit to the max in order to accomodate this goal. Foolish perhaps from your point of view, a necessary evil fom mine."

Rich: I fear there are too many of us in this same situation. As for myself, I did not deny myself or my family enough of what I could not pay for without using the plastic debt card.

However, I do not share your anticipation for retirement. Rather, I thought I'd simply slow down as age requires. Lucky is the man who enjoys his work and blessed is the one who both enjoys and is well paid for his labor. At your age, the possibilities are numerous. Count your blessings rather than any missed pie-in-the-sky. Also, if I may, a warning...I can relate to your reference to leverage but exercise caution, it can work both ways if not properly hedged.

If the views of so many expressed here are correct, our debt may be alleviated by Uncle Sam's printing presses. If/when the minimum wage is $40.00/hour and a cup of coffee is $8.50, then our debt becomes less. Can't happen? How many of us can remember that cup of coffee for $0.10, a large candy bar for $0.05, a gallon of gas for $0.19 and the minimum wage at $1.25? Aristotle (imho) is right in thinking that money is just a means of exchange, the price of precious metals will adjust accordingly. Bernanke and his out-of-control paper money creation may deflate our debt for us while also instigating a market mania in metals.
Are you sour on silver? The leverage here might be greater than anywhere else but I'll certainly grant you that it may require the patience of Job to cash in. Would gold be a disappointment at only a $1000/ounce in, say, five years? After all, you have seven more years before you're only half as old as a century.:>)

cockerel1Some interesting history regarding Gold.#10089904/05/03; 15:52:18

Suggest everyone pour yourself a drink, click on the link, sit back and invest about 45 minutes of your valuable time by listening to this very interesting and enlightening interview. You will not be disappointed, I promise.

Scroll down to
March 8
Click on Ferdinand Lips.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Your understanding of gold may well be your North Star as you navigate the future -- $5.95#10090004/05/03; 16:30:20

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

a nation of onereal estimate of the nation's wealth#10090104/05/03; 18:12:45

People commonly assume that the minute-by-minute stock market quote on a stock represents the real value of all shares of that stock. But no. For every share that is traded, there are many more shares of those same stocks, that did not, and could not, trade at that price. Only those shares which actually traded at the cited price are worth that price. If all shares were offered for sale at the same time, none would have any price. It is this sea of held shares that people assume have a value which, in fact, are only presumed to be worth what someone else was actually able to sell his shares for. The shares that were not sold have no other value. In this way stocks are false, like dollars. Confidence is what underlies both. Dollars are good so long as people believe they are good. Stocks have value just so long as people believe they have value. At some point a price may be reached at which no shares will sell. At some point some number of shares may be offered which will fetch no price.
HenriMr. Gresham#10090204/05/03; 18:22:33

Still here and clinking.

Depated a few days due to the offtrak dialogue but have returned as a browser only for the time being.

Cometose; 18:32:00

I am not a very good cook but some of the things that I am very good a cooking , I take pride in making....

One of them is blackeyed peas....started on a batch last night and I ruined them .....they were burn't early ...not enough water ....tried to salvage them ....

So I began another batch today ....all the ingredients are important so that you get the final desired result which is only verified by taste.....I put bacon grease and salt in my peas....Today , I got passed the burning stage and then began the bacon phase. I began with four peices of bacon .. added them and the salt ....It turned out to be not enough bacon or salt so ....I got out tree more peices of bacon , added them and added some more salt....
It's an old southern recipe....Theres on old wives tale that eating blackeyed peas on New Years day is lucky....

I said all that to say this .....THis isn't new years day but I did make Black eyed peas today and while I was doing that in the kitchen next to my computer area/ laundry room I was taking in an article that makes me feel very lucky...
I highly recommend the article ; It is the second hour of the Financial Sense Online broadcast of today featuring Tim Wood .......Listen to the whole segment( which describes in some depth what he is doing and then go to his web site and
look at his record. He may have uncoverd something ...that may be vital .....for understanding and timing ...technical analysis..... judge for yourself....
He's making some interesting forecasts for the short term and longer term for many sectors....

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Have you seen MK's latest update?#10090404/05/03; 18:39:11

Click link for "MK's Gold Commentary & Review"

"For a very long time, I have warned that the collective beggar-thy-neighbor devaluation policies of the major industrialized nations would lead to wholesale currency depreciation against goods and services in ALL nations across the boards. Co-incident to that, we will see a rise in citizen gold demand internationally. Already during the last quarter of 2002 and the first quarter of 2003, we have seen a strong surge in demand at USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals as a result of investor determination to avoid the loss of real asset value. These new buyers are telling us that their interest in gold has more to do with concerns over the value of the dollar, inadequate return on savings instruments, and continued weakness in equities' markets than it does the war in Iraq -- an important consideration for the long run..." (more)

R PowellSilver#10090504/05/03; 19:04:16

I found this on another site. I don't know if it has been posted yet or not. Also, I haven't been there yet so have no comments whatsoever. Heck, I don't even know if it works.
mikal@Cometose#10090604/05/03; 19:05:37

Re: "He may have uncovered something that may be vital" and "He makes some interesting forecasts"
I hope you or someone can do a small favor, a short review?

R PowellUSAGold CPM Inc.#10090704/05/03; 19:16:01

Refering to gold you mentioned......

"Already during the last quarter of 2002 and the first quarter of 2003, we have seen a strong surge in demand at USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals as a result of investor determination to avoid the loss of real asset value."

This doesn't surprise me at all but it's good to hear your official confirmation. I'm glad that business is very good in gold. I hear many individual reports about the availability of silver in different small locations. May I ask if the silver business has also picked up? It would not surprise me if it has not but would encourage me if it has.

mikal@R.Powell#10090804/05/03; 19:29:03

Re: Nevada coin bill
That was posted. I'd like to see it happen. There was discussion here this past week on this subject for several days leading up to the live broadcast of the committee meeting. Someone said the next step was delayed or postponed. I also heard that Idaho and possibly another state are definitely going try this same tactic. Yeeehaww, and GOLD COINS could be next.
Now all they have to do is start another gold rush to employ the new-depression babes, boomers and beaten-down pioneers. I have it on good authority that Americans will soon be fixing to leave big cities, and I'm banking on it.
Give me a good agricultural and mining boom anyday! With a little influx of homesteaders, farmers, entrepreneurs, miners and grizzled prospectors!
If the Mexicans can cross enmasse, imagine if armed and hungry Americans take squatters rights on "protected wilderness", forests, habitats, etc. Perhaps after federal cutbacks and downsizing, forest rangers will share duty in the cities and towns.

CometoseTechnical analysis#10090904/05/03; 19:55:07

Tim Wood has been doing a little superimposing 4year bull and bear market cycles charts over seasonal cyclical trends in dollar , bonds , dow , s&p and gold......dollar studies confirming , dow and s&p studies....
studies may be indicating tracks that may be followed.

He thinks that the October low was not the 4 year cycle bottom , but that we have and extended cycle this time which has happened before. Nonconfirmation in lack of 90% down days followed by 90% up day and another indicator that failed to bear out this as the low.... All bear markets since 1896 have been 33-37 % of bull market cycles in their time duration....He marks the last bull beginning in 1974....
indicating present bear to last till between 2006-2010.

If the bear market low is not confirmed in the next month by new highs , we're likely to go hard down on the dollar and the stock indexes....through the summer....with the 90% down days and a reversal that again takes us straight us ( he says this one will be buyable but will still be in the confines of a bear market rally.....Timing of rebound is intersting as a consequence of coinciding with ELECTION TIME......As I listened , I became more fascinated with this man's work and confidence . THen I looked at his record of published articles relating to forecasts he has made related to the research tools that he has put together and am a bit amazed........probably worth taking a closer look........

TownCrierIn his "Important Links" MK called attention to Puplava's latest Storm Watch#10091004/05/03; 20:00:24 A good overview on behavior of market trends and investment strategies. In this commentary you will find the following...


In the last half century, there have been four key primary trends and investment themes where an investor could have done exceedingly well as an investor. If all that you did was to find these trends, get on board and ride them out, your investment decisions would be simplified.

On a similar note, it is what has made Warren Buffett the second richest man in the world. ... Maybe it is difficult to replicate Buffett's genius in ferreting out great business franchises, but it is possible to duplicate another element of his success, which is patience. If you can spot a new bull market or a new primary trend and then get on board and ride it until it is completed, that is how big fortunes are made.

MKRich. . .#10091104/05/03; 20:04:29

Thanks for your kind words directed toward me and USAGOLD ~ Centennial Precious Metals. We have seen a pick-up in silver orders too. As you know, George Cooper is our resident silver expert and I have my hands full with gold. Maybe we can get George at some point to pass along his assessment on silver. As you know USAGOLD's home state of Colorado has a history steeped in poor man's gold -- Leadville, Georgetown, the Tabors and the ties to Nebraska's William Jennings Bryan and the ties from there to the Buffet family (also Cornhuskers) in our era. Did you know that I wrote an article one time on Buffet and called it "Nebraska Silver"? One that I believe holds up well even now. Forgive my digressions. . . . .silver is a hard asset and as such an antidote to paper. . . sometimes we forget. Did you know, in that respect, that coining silver in those days was the equivalent of printing money, reducing unemployment, and providing the common man something better than a subsistence life style. At least that's the way Bryan/Tabor, et al saw it. I thought for awhile about writing a book about Baby Doe Tabor. In my early days as a gold broker, I met a older fellow and Western hard money afficionado who remembered sitting at lunch at the Brown Palace and seeing Baby Doe ride her bicycle down 17th Street. She was wearing newspaper for clothing. This after being the richest woman in Colorado who dazzled all with her beauty and riches. The original "rags" to "riches" to "rags" story and therein lies the fascination. Horace Tabor achieved great riches, lost it all and in was rescued from destitution by the Midas of the Rockies who made it all in gold in Cripple Creek. (Maybe you could persuade Cobra (Too) to tell you some stories on this level -- he knows the history well.) And it all came down to power politics. . . . . Hold silver, Rich. But make sure you have gold as a talisman beyond all others.
mikalUnbridled bureaucracy and regulation recklessly bludgeon business#10091204/05/03; 20:54:33

Why No Recovery? William L. Anderson April 7, 2003 Excerpts:
"At the time, few people noticed, since many regulations were not scheduled to kick in until after Clinton had left office. However, they now are here, including the draconian "arsenic" regulations that if actually followed would force entire western communities either to be abandoned or to bring in nearly all of their potable water from outside sources. From the locking up of huge government tracts of land to prevent logging and mining to strict air pollution laws that drive up the price of fuel, these little time bombs have begun to explode, making it that much more difficult for firms to stay in business and discouraging new investment.....
Likewise, an economy can recover only when business owners can shed the excess poundage of regulations and do away with frivolous and costly activities. These regulations can be hidden in a booming economy, but in our present situation, they are too great a burden to carry.....
As Paul Craig Roberts has pointed out in his book The Tyranny of Good Intentions, U.S. attorneys have not shied away from going after individuals who engaged in cash transactions even when it was obvious they were not involved in criminal conduct of any kind. While government prosecutors can brag about pursuing criminals, in reality, the current legal climate has made it less likely that people will want to invest in business enterprises in this country.
Of course, the current epidemic of multi-million dollar judgments against business firms serves as warning that being economically successful in the U.S.A. also means that success will place a company in the crosshairs of private and government lawyers. The Microsoft case was not so much about "protecting consumers" as it was about finding ways to pry loose Microsoft's enormous cash holdings. (Bill Gates had a policy of the firm being as liquid as possible, which also meant that lawyers from Janet Reno on down concocted schemes to put the money in their own pockets or government treasuries by looting Microsoft.)"

R PowellM.K. // George Cooper#10091304/05/03; 21:44:28

Thanks for the response. As you know, I'm interested in any and every thing related to silver. Perhaps you would post your "Nebraska Silver" article for us at some time.

If George is the man for silver information, maybe I can coax him out of lurking to give us his present assessment of the silver market. I've often repeated that I have reached somewhat of a dead end in studying the fundamentals of silver. The annual "Silver Survey" seems to be the accepted source for supply/demand/and the remaining known existing supply. As much as I've played devil's advocate with the numbers and the silver bull arguments (perhaps best described by Ted Butler), I can not find any serious flaw in the argument that existing supplies will someday (soon?) be exhausted. I wonder if a real physical shortage will be necessary to initiate price rationing. I also wonder how much unknown market available silver exists. That nagging doubt haunting my analysis is the old proverb, "If it seems too good to be true, it probably isn't." Another is that if my analysis is correct, then why hasn't the market reacted? I have offered my answers to these questions but would love to hear your opinion and that of George Cooper if/when time and inclination allow.
As for a gold talisman, I still have the one you gave me (thank you) but I do need more silver!
Happy weekend!

davefingerMicrosoft#10091404/05/03; 22:44:57

Regardless of any political and/or financial shenanigans that likely went on behind the scenes during the MS anti-trust trial, they were found guilty. "Being successful" is fine. Having a monopoly is even, legally, fine. Being an abusive monopoly that employs gunboat marketing, product tying etc is not. Another bad habit of theirs, stabbing partners in the back, has paid the appropriate negative dividends as demonstrated by their inability to attract partners for their forays into game consoles and mobile phones. The reason is that they can't use their monopoly power to bully their way into those markets like they have nearly every major desktop software niche, and the players in those industries know what kind of corporate thug MS is. Sorry for the rant, I'm way too tired from yardwork and painting, and have watched the 9000lb gorilla from Redmond rampage for way too long to be gentile about it right now! I'll leave the subject by invoking the thought-image of Al Pacino from the final court scene of ...And Justice for All to summarize how I feel about MS!

(As an aside to retain some relevance to PM's, I often mention to people when speaking about PM's that Bill Gates, along with Buffett, are not only two of the richest men on earth, but that they are also two of the largest private holders of silver bullion. I hope I'm correct on that now that I think twice about it! I know I read/heard it somewhere... Anyway, it really seems to pique curiosity and interest when you drop that tidbit.)

BelgianInterest Rates (IR)#10091504/06/03; 03:02:53

The interest rates have bottomed and are rising. For me, the "Lows" are in ! UST 10 yrs, low, was 3,35% in oct.'02.
With 3,95%, at present, we are not far from an important pivot-point of 4,20%-4,30%. Rising interest rates = rising POG !

The oct. '02 IR's lows are corresponding with the stockmarket lows (previous bottom). The present rising IR, might indicate that the oct.'02 stockmarket-bottom might be taken out. For no simplier reason that we are still in very over-valued territory with a profitless economy.

This IR bottoming and first signs of reverse-up correspond with POG flip-flopping in the plus 300$ region, after having touched the 255$ bottom, twice and building a robust bottoming pattern.

Give the Elliot Wave (Fibonnaci), article at GE some attention : POG retracements of 50% and possible 61,18%...present decline to 322$...> 306$. Gold an IRs bottoming together, showing signs (intention) to rocket up and stockmarkets preparing for their "crash" finale ?

IRs at 40 years low...POG at 21 years low...And astronomical amounts of profitless, overvalued debt-papers, of all kinds ! Conclusion....!!!

TopazIR's @ Sir Belgian.#10091604/06/03; 05:01:16

Beg to differ Sir B...if this contrived SM rally fails, as I'm sure it will, Bond yields will plummet "again".
We're not in a cyclical situation any of the pants time...hold your Gold-assets close...and watch!

The only "inflation" left is the Hyper variety...but imo, we must collapse first.

silvercollectorR.Powell, Mr. Gresham#10091704/06/03; 07:09:23

Thanks for your messages.

Socrates964 and I traded messages a couple days ago. I wonder if you say the exchange? One point made was if and when inflation returns with a bang, will gold lead the march?

Interesting comparisons made about the pre-1980 gold spike, that is, gold at $35 and now $350 for a ten-bagger. But then as it has been demonstrated so has everything else. I love looking at the 25 year gold price chart, there is a flat zone (350-400) for 8 years from approximately 1989 to 1997. Price stability?

Then we get a fall from the, let's say, 8 year average of $375 to the 4 year (average) of $275. By the way, I'm looking at a 25 London fix chart. In any regard there are 2 distinct plateau's of 375 and 275. So I believe if one could understand the monetary fundamentals during these 2 eras one could reliable predict the future, yes?

So was monetary tightening the reason. Hell no, money has been cranking from what I understand. The "inflation" was directed into the SM. After that era (1998-2000) the "inflation" was re-directed into the real estate and the bond markets (treasuries) from what I can gather. Many speak of the tops in the bond and RE markets, where does the money(inflation/new money) head next?

Socrates964 and I touched on this briefly last week. I think there is a line that represents inflation. The monetary gurus as we know have a "moving target" on the definition so how does one really know what "the number is" but lets for a moment realize that there is some sort of mathematical representation on the escalating "price of eggs".

The stock market, again for case of discussion, was undervalued in the early '90's. It has crossed over "the line" and is clearly overvalued. I also use the "neighborhood watch" theory on the SM. The next-door neighbor, who is a production manager at a major tech firm, gets up and 6:00 arrives at work at 7:00 and gets home at 6:00 putting in his "8 hour" day. This guy just got laid off and says the hi-tech firm is pulling its foreign offices back to Europe. I told him that if he got laid off the firm must be in serious shape. His reponse was simply "oh yeah". Anyway the SM is still above the "inflation line". In my town of 1 million people RE has seen increases of 8,10 & 9% respectively in the last 3 years. Clearly unsustainable. Using the "neighborhood watch" I see almost as many houses for sale but the "Sold" signs are taking longer and longer to appear, demand is waining. Evidently the price of a house if above "the line" and is overvalued.

Wouldn't it have been a gag to have been in the SM exactly until the end of the peak and switched to RE and

Belgian@ Topaz....about bond yields (IRs)#10091804/06/03; 07:26:55

The reason why I'm calling the attention on IRs is that I doubt, they will get those bond yields down, again, if the SMs fail, again. In other words...they succeeded in knocking POG from 389$ back down to 322$ ( > 306$ ) in no time...but can this be done """ repeatedly """, with such a huge global market in bonds ? A 1,2 Trillion $ tsunami-wave is gulfing over the global market, "daily" !

The different rooms for (financial) * maneuvering * in the IR/currency/stockmarket and Gold, mine-fields, are getting smaller and smaller, as to compensate, alternatively, for each other (speculative/gambling-profits).

Central bankers (with their IR-policy) are destroying the "savings" of ordinary people with a policy that serves "nothing" in the medium long run. Whilst nothing is "turning around".

Right you are that we are Not in a (short !!!) cyclical situation...we have ended a linear "Gigantic" dollar-currency-cycle, instead ! Yep, the Hyper variety of the inflalala, is there. That's why I'm guessing those rising IRs.

Zero or quasi zero IRs are "destructive" in the longer run in the present economic/financial system. Everybody simply goes out of business, slowly but surely. The Japanese model.
Banks...businesses...savers, back's are being broken in their growth and "survival". This is generally, wrongly, called "deflation". Wrongly, because the intrinsical destructive effect is much worse than ordinary (cyclical)deflation. Therefor, prolonged periods of zero rates is indicating the end of the road to me and total collapse or super high IRs (hyperflafla) must be the end result to this.

The main reason for all this is : (increasing) "DEBTS" meeting no (declining) "PROFITS".

The uppercutal knock down of POG from 389$ to 322$ (306$) is gigantic evidence of the reigning "desperation" !
All this BLABLABLA about war-dividend is absolute nonsense !

We have come to the situation where a "healthy" degree of natural inflation has become impossible. Some inflationary pockets of "high" inflation were permitted (SM-Real Estate).
If one's stocks, AND house-value(price), AND bonds, AND employment/profits...are constantly declining !...what will the end result become ? Total collapse and destruction or a sudden roque wave of HYPERINFLATION or better DEVALUATION through monetary worthlesness. That's the "moment supreme" where Gold will take off and put the 1980 - x25 blast in eternal shadow. There is NO escaping, compromise possible as evidenced by the abnormal/absurd behavior of the visible indicators, remaining absurd longer and longer.

If my call for higher IRs, soon, is incorrect...the final outcome on this enormous anamaly, will be even worse than what we anticipate at present. See the stockprices of Japanese banks !

TopazRandGold.#10091904/06/03; 12:51:36

After spending the past 12 Mth's @ nett 3200, PoG (ZAR) has "fallen off the Cliff".
Rather than bemoan Golds fate, celebrate the fact that Au is "finally" showing signs of decoupling from it's currency attachment.
When ZAR (THE Gold currency) outperforms Gold by 25% in 2 Mth's...WOW! Something HAS to give.
@ Belgian:
We're on the same page...methinks a falling Papergold price is as good an indicator of further disinflation as any, Battlefield successes notwithstanding.
The 1929 experience looks likely to be repeated imo but glaringly different now is we're running on pure "faith" (no Gold to underpin)...consequently "cost of Capital risk" coupled with IR risk protection effectively moves "Zero" way further above the line....hence Mr G's reluctance.
The BEST form of risk mitigation is to continue to support the System in which your assets are denominated.

Off to varnish some Teak.

Daniel DruffAB532#10092104/06/03; 13:25:50

From: Steve Hayes
Date: Sunday, April 06, 2003 12:23 AM

I was at the hearing on AB 532 (the NV coin bill) and the chairman specifically mentioned the Idaho bill (and secrecy.) It is real.

Chris PowellThere's no evidence of a Plunge Protection Team ...#10092204/06/03; 13:51:57

... unless you look for it.

A reply to John Mauldin.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

TownCrierA GAMESHOW?: "Gambling for a lifestyle"#1009234/6/03; 14:25:39

TOKYO (Reuters) - Yuka Akiya giggles about her early 20s when she saved little and shopped a lot, but the 25-year old web designer says she now deposits a quarter of her salary in a savings account earning a paltry 0.01 percent interest.

At that rate, her investment will double in about 6,931 years.

In search of better returns, Yuka said she jumped at a chance to attend a seminar at the Tokyo Stock Exchange for women interested in investing in stocks.

Women have long been ignored by the male-dominated brokerage industry, but they are increasingly being viewed as a huge source of income for the nation's securities firms...

Medium-sized broker Tokai Tokyo Securities Co Ltd, holds lectures for women ... complete with the basics of stocks and bonds and articles meant to catch a woman's eye.

But your run-of-the-mill Japanese stocks will not be an easy sell.

The Nikkei 225 average has fallen 60 percent over the past three years. Risk-averse Japanese investors tend to prefer the security of bonds to the equity markets, which are perceived by some investors as a casino for speculators.

"Many Japanese investors consider buying stocks a big-time gamble, because stocks are seen as questionable, risky assets," said Hideki Sotokawa, director of investment services at Standard & Poor's.

Not helping matters are recent comments from Japan's finance minister, Masajuro Shiokawa, blaming the recent decline in share prices on a lack of morals among brokerages involved in speculative trades.

...Dentsu Institute's Yamazaki said she reckons women in their 30s are the group to watch, since they might be tempted by the prospect of big returns to pay for their lifestyles.

They have higher salaries than women in their 20s and experienced Japan's bubble economy, which left them with expensive tastes.

"These women don't want to give up the good life," Yamazaki said. "They know that the poor economic outlook means that working and saving alone won't be enough to improve their lot."

-------(click url to read full article)-------

Once Upon a Time... a man drove to Vegas because he wanted a hat. At the end of the day he was thumbing a ride home... still hatless, and without a shirt, too.

Japanese households have 780 trillion yen ($6.52 trillion) in the form of savings and deposit accounts. Will they be drawn in by slick brokerage firms and enticed to gamble away their modest security in an uncertain chase for a flashier lifestyle? Or will they stand firm, only to risk losing their purchasing power at the hands of the government's monetary officials who continue to toy with ways of weakening the yen to jumpstart the economy?

In this spectrum of alternatives, between the frying pan and the fire, buying gold is the one attractive alternative that can keep you in the driver's seat on the highway of your own choosing.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.In bookstores it retails for $14.95. But you know the author! Get it here for $5.95#1009244/6/03; 14:27:53

The ABCs of Gold Investing

ABCs of Gold by MK"Without waxing philosophical, a few words are helpful concerning the mind-set with which you pursue your interest in gold ownership. Some enter the gold market to make a profit, others to hedge disaster, some to accomplish both. No matter into which category you fit, make sure you understand why you are going into the gold market. Convey that understanding to the individual with whom you are structuring your gold portfolio. The whys have quite a bit to do with what you end up owning.

"Frequently investors will say that any kind of gold will do because after all gold is gold, isn't it? This type of attitude has helped a great many coin shop owners unload unwanted inventory they hadn't been able to get rid of for years. This is probably a good deal for the coin dealer, but it could spell disaster for you. In the same vein, I have talked to hundreds, probably thousands, of investors in nearly a quarter century in the business. Quite often, potential investors have no more reason for buying gold than 'everybody else is doing it.'

"In Chapter 16 on portfolio planning, you will find some details on this important subject. For now, consider the inscription over the entrance to the temple of the ancient Delphic Oracle: 'Know Thyself.' Study. Read. Learn what's going on around you. Call a few gold firms and ask questions. There's nothing like conversation to stimulate thinking. Take time to lay a little groundwork. Then make your move. The political and economic situation being what it is, there is no better time to start than now. Know thyself -- your goals and needs -- and you will be a more confident, happier gold investor." (more)

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Daniel DruffChris Powell#1009254/6/03; 14:43:35

The Exchange StabilizationFund

Chris Powell (04/06/03; 13:51:57MT - msg#: 100922)
There's no evidence of a Plunge Protection Team ...

A beautifully written article, imho.


TacitusThe Week in Review#1009264/6/03; 15:00:56 parent=/VGApp/hnw/web/corpcontent/vanguardviews/jsp/VanViewsNCArticle.jsp$chunk=/freshness/News_and_Views/PCN_econ_0404200

Dear fellow forum viewers,

Thought you might find this link informative.


TacitusThe Week in Review#1009274/6/03; 15:06:56 parent=/VGApp/hnw/web/corpcontent/vanguardviews/jsp/VanViewsNCArticle.jsp$chunk=/freshness/News_and_Views/PCN_econ_04042003.html

Dear Viewers,

Let me try again. Hope the link works this time.


TacitusThe Week in Review#1009284/6/03; 15:09:37$chunk=/freshness/News_and_Views/PCN_econ_04042003.html

Dear Viewers,

If it doesn't work this time, I quit.


Dollar BillSunday snippets#1009294/6/03; 17:19:09

- "There is no economic theory that I ever heard of,"
sez the Mogumbo Guru, "that espouses continual,
accelerating a magic-bullet method of
achieving prosperity."

"When will the recovery will begin?" asks Mogumbo,
"The answer is simplicity itself; when some big group
of people get the financial wherewithal to buy a deluge
of global output. The Americans are just about tapped
out, bless their greedy little hearts. If Greenspan
were the hotshot that people think he is, he would be
pushing for Visa and MasterCard to send unsolicited
credit cards to the Chinese, Russians and Indians. When
that huge group of debt-free people starts consuming,
THEN the global recovery will begin."

*** "The world is aghast at the admission of Treasury
chief O'Neill that there are no assets in the Social
Security Fund!," writes Richard Daughty. "Well, duh!
Congress has been taking the money and putting in IOU's
for decades, and suddenly this is news!"

*** There seems to have been some doubt as to what was
actually in the Social Security system's vaults. So, a
presidential commission headed by former senator
Patrick Moynihan was appointed to have a look. Sure
enough, when they peeked into the nation's retirement
hidey hole, what they find? Nothing!

***The most surprising statistic is the revelation that NYSE Members bought such a humongous load of shares that my initial impression was that the figure printed in Barron's was a misprint. The historical weekly "net buy/sell" of Members can be most anything, from negligible up to around maybe 150 million shares or so a week at the outside. But it averages, I guess, around, oh, thirty million shares a week, give or take. Suddenly, like a bolt out of the blue last week, they snap up 588,248,000 shares! In one week! It may be a misprint, but if it is not, then I wonder what caused it?

CometoseDollar Bill / big volume on NYSE#1009304/6/03; 17:37:56

I know i'm a synic (perhaps not a speller)but
there's this idea that the end of the War is going to bring about EUPHORIA being presented by the sold out media....and double digit returns in the stock market indexes are coming ......which may be good reason to be long....

Perhaps Carlysle group got their banker buddies in NY to encourage the MUTUAL fund Managers to load the boat up on the pending WAR FINALE they could borrow against those shares to short the market.....If the market tanks as the war marches one into May perhaps June .....someone makes a killing at the expense of little JOE Patriot American getting FLEECED again .....PERHAPS the seller in last weeks NYSE machinations was the PPT


Sorry , I couldn't help it....

Cavan ManDollar Bill#1009314/6/03; 17:39:12

During the Presidency of TR for (only one of many) example (s), it was not unusual for the same crowd to do likewise. In times of near panic conditions in the financial markets, this characteristic behaviour by US financiers was expected. The White House meetings were, I think, reported in the mainstream press for the most part. Nothing new there; no cabal under that particular rock. The question to ask oneself (and to which you seem to be alluding to) is, with the magnitude of imbalances so great and the margin of error so thin, will "they" fail or will "they" succeed?

Mr. Mauldin discounts the PPT yet, it has always existed in one form or another. I've unsubscribed to his Eletter. The poor man, though very intelligent and I'm sure, very successful, is definitely NOT a clear thinker IMHO. He also seems to be on the same ideological, political jihad that so many follow.

Buy physical gold (and perhaps a good jr.) Accept no substitutes.

Daniel DruffMauldin#1009324/6/03; 17:47:02

The Exchange Stabilization Fund

If the gentleman has an e-mail, perhaps we could send him a copy of the appropriate legislation which in fact, creates this sector of the Treasury Department. It's absolutely infuriating to see perfectly intelligent citizens in lack of information. It really is an educational problem...GATA?


silvercollectorNow that the "war is over".....#1009334/6/03; 17:51:47

Sydney whacks gold for 3 bucks, 322 and change. Interesting bounce off the 2 time Friday afternoon support. Hope 322 is the bottom.

Looking back over the last couple months it is most perplexing analysing the 'war premium'. I wonder if the breakthrough the mysterious 325/330 and 354 was the buildup of an accident waiting to happen. Although we are not out of the woods completely it appears that the market has priced it in.

I guess my point is that the severe gumming and jawboneing about the 'war premium' is/was that. The chatter of no premium or 50 bucks or in fact X bucks is a farce. In fact I will go so far to say that anyone not "pricing in uncertainty", ie no war premium is in denial. Buy the rumor, sell the facts, WHATEVER.

Believe you me, I'm no expert but the gossip about no war premium upsets up; these are the so-called experts. Now I wait to see if Sinclair is full of it or not. If he misses the mark I will never listen to another expert again.

I was had on Y2K by several so-called experts and I not going to take it anymore. I can't believe I've been had again, what a registered fool I am.

Don't get me wrong, I am very gold bullish, I'm just loaded at the wrong time. The end game of dollar dominance is, IMHO, certain.

This war may be won but it still is not paid for.

silvercollectorNow that the "war is over".....#1009344/6/03; 18:06:25

...we wait for political fallout. UN, France, Germany, Russia and China I am sure are most anxious, perturbed.

We shall see.

Headline News yesterday. "Blix most curious to see if US finds WMD". (Blix who?)

I bet.

Wanna bet 'piles' are found all of a sudden. Vindication is the next 'war' objective.

Have a nice day is a overused expression, in fact a crock. When reality surfaces we'll have a nice day and not until then.

Cavan ManAU: When all else fails....#1009354/6/03; 19:01:22

Guys: If you've been around here long enough you can see how the "trader boys" are playing their game. This too shall pass. I've been here for, four years next month and have seen this before. Each time thereafter (post trading games),the price ofgold rises; always and consistently!

I planted a wildflower garden today. I loved my family and will sleep soundly tonight. Each time I ask myself; could I be wrong? What else can I buy of equal or better value? The answersare always the same.Good night and sleep tight.

Cavan ManPS:#1009364/6/03; 19:04:13

Yes, stocks are going up now that the US is in virtual (not actual) control of IRQ. Going up on what means I ask? Must be serendipidity because top line and bottom line growth stink globally. G'nite and keep focused on the big picture. Tune out the day to day noise.
R PowellExuberence again#1009374/6/03; 19:52:43

MRCI delayed night quotes..
S+P up 10.50
Nasdoggie up 16.50
Dow up 112

And the dollar is up against other fiats, metals and oil down. War news supercedes financial indicators? If so, for how long? Kudlow will be insufferably smug and haughty tomorrow. I'm glad I'll be working.

A leading economic newsletter (monthly issue) focused on "jamming" out the short term emotional market moves (reactions to war news). The advice was to focus, instead, on the fundamental realities which will eventually determine the market direction, regardless of all else (including manipulation).

I guess I agree with this but it presupposes long term investments. All in all, I guess the market celebrating good war news is to be expected, no? Perhaps the trick is to fiqure out just when the celebration will end. Any thoughts?

contrarianwar is over?????#1009384/6/03; 19:59:44

silvercollector--war is over?...don't believe the hype...apparently financial interest are bearing down heavily on military command to present a pretty picture.
check out link above for an unbiased, third party view of the war. The report 5a is especially illuminating.

It's shocking to see how this differs from the "one media fits all" picture americans are presented with in this day of media conglomeratization. These are the fruits of the loss of independent media outlets... a party line that few US reporters dare to venture from.

contrarianalternative viewpoint on war#1009394/6/03; 20:04:39

All the claims made by aviation commander of the coalition, general Michael Mosley, about "…Iraqi army, as an organized structure consisting of large units, exists no longer…" are contrary to fact and, according to analytics, are probably connected with severe pressure put on the military command by American financial groups that desperately needed good news from the US-Iraqi front by the end of the financial week. In fact, the Republican Guards defending Baghdad have not lost even 5% of their numerical strength and military equipment. Most of those losses were due to bombardments and not land combats. The total losses of Iraqi army since the beginning of the war have not exceeded 5-8% of their defensive potential. This means the main battles are still to be seen.
Dollar Billcontrarian#1009404/6/03; 20:33:17

Hello Contrarian,
The russian website is of no help if you are trying to be informed in life.

mikalFingers in the pie#1009414/6/03; 20:53:23

"Mr. President, Chairman Greenspan, we implore you to consider our plight in this grave time of attacks against Americans and our heroes in Iraq and Afghanistan. After 911 you assisted us so generously in a similar plight, and succeeded in pulling us out of recession and restoring the American Way. Won't you open the faucets once again?"
Distinguished Panel: "Well, since you put it that way, we cannot refuse."
Is this Disney's "Supercalifragilisticexpealidoscious"?

RocketmanDown another $4 buck and no more powder!#1009424/6/03; 21:20:04

My sentiments are with Silercollector! I'm sick and tired of hearing about support levels from so called professionals and then seeing gold drop another 5 bucks.

My life and my financial well being does not depend on gold going up. I run a great business that has nothing to do with gold.

But I have, like silvercollector and others here, equiped myself with a golden lifeboat. The only problem is the oceanliner of the general financial markets is moving on and does not appear to be sinking. The only thing sinking so far is my lifeboat!

Is the economic reality I think I am seeing out there along with all of you true, or are we insane and completely out of touch with reality?

steadygolden lifeboats dont sink!#1009434/6/03; 21:39:19

my lifeboat doesnt seem to be sinking!
mikalRussian convoy attacked in Iraq#1009444/6/03; 21:47:25

Gold still well above numerous support levels. Dollar still well below trend lines. No problem. As for the war, well seeing is believing or, as they say in my parts, some things are just too good to be true.
GoldiloxDown another $4 . . .#1009454/6/03; 21:47:47


Daily fluctuations based on War/Market info-mercials are certain to get your goat if you let them. The noise of daily movements are futile for everyone but the day-trader. IMHO, everything transpiring now is focused to hold the public's attention for election '04, so as in market predictions, if we're not looking at least 6-16 months ahead, we're short-sighted indeed.

The basic tenants espoused here are that market/currency devaluation lead to opportunities for PM upward revaluation. Whether the daily fluctuations return Au to $250/oz before finally regaining their upward momentum, the fundamentals support the theory.

We all have to answer the question of price breakout vs. continued manipulation for ourselves, but it's not healthy (financially or emotionally) to let daily fluctuations chart one's course.

aussie(No Subject)#1009464/6/03; 22:10:27

Gold - $321.00 - ouch!

Rocketman and Silvercollector - I'm with you on this one, certainly very disheartening the pattern that gold is following at the moment. The support levels are revised lower and lower each time you read an analysts prediction. Anyway I guess all we can do is hang on in there and hope things will turn around shortly.
silvercollectorRocketman#1009474/7/03; 00:43:54

Alot of grouchies out here in Goldenland!

You bet, gold was a sawbuck short of 400 a month ago and tonight creamed the mystical, magical 325. I feel like a bear with a thorn in my paw.

Anyone with a wave X, teacup, cup and handle theory better save it for another day.

I'm getting the snarlies over CNN as well. Tonight they announce that 6 reporters have died so far, ever get the feeling there is more reporters than soldiers. Ever get the feeling that a bullet flying has a 50/50 chance of taking out a reporter.

There was a special on another channel about long lines of disgruntled reporters waiting in Kuwait not allowed inside Iraq. "Oh quick, get a shot of that guy with his head shot off and his eyeballs that have switched sockets" Then they show us the warehouse of caskets full of bones and the hospital shots with every second kid missing at least 2 limbs. Yeah that's what I want my kids to see when then channel serf at 7pm. This has got O.J. Simpson beat all to hell.

What a sick bunch of mutant freaks. We live in a truely messed up world.

Black BladeBOJ buys Y1.16 trln in shares from banks by Mar 31#1009484/7/03; 02:13:08


TOKYO, April 7 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) said on Monday it had bought a cumulative 1.16 trillion yen ($9.64 billion) of shares held by banks by March 31 under a programme aimed at reducing banks' exposure to stock market volatility. The amount, shown on a financial statement released every 10 days, was up from 1.03 trillion yen as of March 20.

Black Blade: A bit more government intervention required. Buying stocks and the US dollar like there's no tomorrow. Nice to have a government sanctioned printing press. Remember they are buying on Euro and US markets too.

skiGood news in Silver .....#1009494/7/03; 02:29:00

If my memory serves me correctly, there were some unusual war games played in Europe during the Cold War with the Soviet Union. Just like the long wait for the POS and POG to finally make some big moves, the NATO allies watched and waited for Russia to make a big move (attack). NATO radar would watch the skies knowing full well that a major attack would initially start with a massive air assault from the Soviets. I recall reading of SHAM ATTACKS or FEINTS perpetuated by the Soviets. Radar would pick up massive air contacts streaming in from East Germany giving every indication that a full scale attack was underway. Then, at the last moment before crossing into West German airspace, these Soviet aircraft would turn away and return to base. The most important point of this example is to demonstrate that THERE ARE REAL AND MEASURABLE SIGNS (aircraft in the air) THAT MUST ACCOMPANY AN ATTACK.

Enter the Price of Silver....

Everyone knows about the ongoing silver deficit. Above ground stockpiles are being depleated and any thinking person knows that at some point the price of silver must go much higher to bring the market into balance. What we don't know is "When will the POS finally start to move?" Only the insiders in this market will know the timing. However, to help answer the timing question, IMHO, there are "real and measurable signs that can be identified" as in the Cold War example above.

There is no question that the daily price of silver is determined and controled by from one central location on the planet .... The NEW YORK COMEX. There are two major players at this market site, the LARGE COMMERCIALS and the LARGE SPECULATORS (hedge funds).

All indications point to the fact that the LARGE COMMERCIALS ultimately control this market and the LARGE SPECULATORS are the suckers who are consistantly being set up to have their pockets picked. It is also important to point out that the LARGE SPECULATORS are basically technical traders (having little concern for silver fundamentals) and that THIS GROUP DOES NOT OWN ANY PHYSICAL SILVER.

A historical study of the COMEX silver market will reveal that at various times each of these two heavyweights will have very, very large long or short postions in silver as evidenced in the Committment of Traders weekly reports.

Last week, Ted Butler supplied the following revealing information..... (unable go give the link per forum rules.) He stated that the LARGE COMMERCIALS had recently reduced their huge short postion in silver from 75 thousand contracts all the way down to 15 thousand contracts. In other words, they had recently been short 300 million ounces of silver and are now only short 75 million ounces as of the 3-25-03 committment of traders report. (since the last committment of traders report is a little old, and the POS has made little movement in this time, I would bet that the large commercials have even reduced this 75 million ounce figure even more.)


Now back to the Cold War .... The POS must explode at some point and there will be a few measurable indicators beforehand. There have been a few historical times in the past where the COMEX market structure was just like we finally see it today. If I'm not mistaken, in each of these instances, the POS rapidly moved up 50 or 60 cents and then the LARGE COMMERCIALS let the LARGE SPECULATORS out of their short positions at the last minute (the aircraft turned away and the exercise only became another feint) (I think that 11-2002 was the last time that this happened.)

Here is the "moral of the story". One of these times, the radar will sound, the LARGE COMMERCIALS will be properly positioned, the LARGE SPECULATORS will be IMPROPERLY postioned ..... and the LARGE COMMERCIALS will NOT STEP IN AND RESCUE THE LARGE SPECS .... the feints and shamm attacks will be over and the explosion in the POS will begin.

So, is this the real thing or not??

Unless you're an insider you will never know for sure. But we do know for sure that everything is now in it's proper place so that the battle CAN soon begin!!

Is there any other supporting evidence??

I think so. I watch three specific silver mining stocks like a hawk. On 4-4-02 the POS went down one penny and the three stocks moved up 4.6%, 3.9% and 6.15%. The stocks virtually always telegraph that something is up. Or more properly stated, the positive stock movement MUST be present for a movement in the spot price of silver to take place.

Note: This is largely my own individual analysis of the present silver outlook. I have been following this market for 20 years but there is a lot that I still don't know. Do your own research before you take my word for anything.

What ya think R. Powell??

BelgianA stunning monday-morning !#1009504/7/03; 03:07:11

The financial powers are maximizing their derivative-leverages ! Out of * overvalued * bonds...higher interest rates...back into * overvalued * stocks. Out of euro... back
into the dollar. Ocean waves of paper, rolling, stones up and down. Damage control as to keep some perception of false stability, alive. False global stability with the "incapacity" of generating any genuine "GROWTH" !

Don't get fooled by such a impressive show. Nothing in the general "detoriation" process has changed ! NOTHING !!!

We can bomb medieval states back into the stone-age and make it seem as if an economical renaissance is at the front door.

CNBC-Europ : The fall of Bagdad = POG at 300$/Oz ! Funny, how they can triumphant pinpoint such a price-target for Gold (and POO) !?

Flamboyant moves into a dominating detoriating spiral are a magnificent generator of financial frustrations amongst unsofisticated participants. An increasingly explosive coctail, where all leverage-gimmicks will slowly lose their effects.

Euroland-15 growth estimates, downgraded from 1,8% to 1% !
And the financial powers (brotherhood) wants to lead us by the hand to a SP-500 target of 930 (from a one yr low of 800). Yep, a plus 15% for an historical overvalued market, within the prospects of detoriating growth and profit ! Wawwwww...aren't we genial ?

The most optimistic P/E for the SP-500 = 17, with, God knows what kind of earnings for Q1. Do you want to hold such a paper ? When bond yields will (are) rising...they will be promoted as "attractive", again...and whoops, another set of rallies within the detoriating spiral, takes off ! Up until everything is milled to fine powder.

Keep on smiling folks...Gold's knock down is going to be extremely short in my very humble opinion!

Black BladeSchroeder blames weak growth on Iraqi war #1009514/7/03; 03:28:06


BERLIN, April 6 (Reuters) - Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said on Sunday the Iraq war was hitting worldwide economic growth, but business leaders said the German economy was more burdened by homemade structural impediments than anything else. Schroeder, whose government is firmly opposed to the war on Iraq, said it was already evident that uncertainties caused by the war were having a negative impact on economies worldwide and would impair growth, if not completely destroy it.

Black Blade: Obviously the currency and stock markets have declared that Gerhard Schroeder is a liar.

Black BladeLittle hope for post-war boom in U.S. economy #1009524/7/03; 03:42:54


WASHINGTON, April 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy seems to have all but stalled out in recent months -- or perhaps even contracted -- and a raft of gloomy data have economists worried a revival may be difficult even if the Iraq war ends swiftly. Nervous that the war would hurt their sales, many businesses froze hiring and cut their investment budgets in the run-up to the U.S.-led attack on Iraq, now in its third week.

Black Blade: Apparently the markets have discounted all the bad news and have declared the economy "recovered" as stocks and the US dollar rocket higher. The funny thing is that the individual investor is not the one playing the game. Precious metals fall while the financial investment instruments rally even though the data suggests otherwise. This is absolutely bizarre unless the investment houses are playing on some "insider" inof that the rest of us are not privy to. Hmmm…

Black BladeWMD Found!#1009534/7/03; 04:40:09

News reports are coming out that "weapons of mass destruction" have been found in central Iraq. According to television news US Army sources have claimed to have found nerve gas agent in central Iraq. No details yet.

- Black Blade

Aristotle"We live in a truely messed up world." --- sc#1009544/7/03; 05:34:47

Folding this comment in with Friday and Saturday posts


Amen to that, brother. Absolutely twisted. I find myself wondering if we can legitimately expect any semblance of order on a macroscopic level when case studies of the components -- on a person-by-person basis -- reveal chaos and rot at the root level.

In fact, I've heard rumors of one poor soul (whom I can only hope is otherwise a typically healthy and capable specimen) that has lost his wits at the tender age of 43.

Apparently, this sad sack determined that he "was going to fall short" of his "Twilight goals." Consequently, with this "shortfall" in mind, he apparently "borrowed on equity" and ran "lines of credit to the max" in order to accommodate this goal -- in his words, to "leapfrog several steps in order to enter the Twilight zone."

What on earth????

Only a relatively hard-working and fortunate few (out of 6 billion on earth) can claim the luxury of reaching Twilight "goals" as this poor soul seems to have in mind -- early retirement (i.e., by choice.) Most of us humans have our Twilight period thrust upon us -- where our bodies and minds eventually become too infirm to generate our needed income by daily productivity.

Most rational people, therefore, strive to make the most of their time in the Sunlight, to enjoy the healthy and capable periods of their life's mind and body even while preparing for the uncertainty of Twilight .

First of all, let me say this and get it out of the way as the catch-all. I am truly saddened for those who by mean fate are struck down prematurely by disease, made worse if it becomes a long lingering Twilight (versus an instant "lights out") for which they are ill-prepared with personal resources or a supportive network of family resources. Barring any of that, it's probably an understandably threadbare government safety net that will support them at some minimum acceptable level.

Beyond that, if a person is still healthy and capable, only a nitwit, a complete *nitwit* like we see here, throws in the towel at the fine age of forty-three and bets his tiny farm and harvests on the lotto. At that tender young age a man hasn't even reached his prime! What's the panic? All odds are that he's got 25, maybe 35 really REALLY good productive years ahead of him -- more ahead of him than behind him becase his first 20 years of life were wasted on (*almost* it seems) growing up.

Here's the good news. At this next mature phase of life, expenses tend to decrease as the child-rearing phase is now past, and a man can really begin to do some productive saving. (BTW, if you've raised your kids right, you reap dividends as they will be willing to support dear old mom and dad should your own resources prove inadequate due to a Twilight arriving prematurely.)

Here's a good rule to live by: Live within your means! If you don't make much, don't eat lobster for lunch. On the other hand, if you can't afford to eat anything, find better employment. A 43-year-old who honestly foresees his body giving out (Twilight) from strenuous labor long before any nest egg can grow had better try to find himself a way to transition into some kind of desk job so he can extend his number of fruitful days in the Sunlight.

What's the alternative, you ask? He'd better spend his time patching up his relationships with his network of family so they'll accept him as a charity case. And if everyone he knows and loves is in the same leaky boat, I'd suggest he'd better learn to vote early and vote often for Democratic handouts, riding the backs of those neighbors who didn't fritter away their own meager farmsteads in a warped bout of mid-life crisis on lottos and leverage in nitwitted get-rich-quick schemes.

In case you missed my point, let me sum it up. You said in an Saturday post: "I felt the need to leverage as the sense of despair begins to mutate into panic. ........ I have borrowed on equity and run lines of credit to the max in order to accommodate this goal. Foolish perhaps from your point of view, a necessary evil fom mine."

Necessary at forty-three years of age? *Necessary*????

One small step at a time I strive to climb a mountain, showing how it must be done. Patience, determination, and real progress... step after step after step, one after ANOTHER. But you, following some other twisted trail of self-perceived shortcuts, with one attempted gravity-defying step give us all a dusty CRASH-course reminder in how NOT to climb a mountain with a Wile E. Coyote-esque canyon-rim pratfall.

If I'm sounding less than charitable to you, it's so that others can LEARN from your mid-life mistake instead of following you over the edge. It's also to pull you outta your funk with a firm hand, because you're too young to think you're outta time. Furthermore, it's foolish for anyone to think that leveraging your stupidity will help you improve your fortune.

Consider this. It's been said that if you're not either a millionaire or bankrupt by the time you're thirty, then you're not really trying. To this I'd add, if you're bankrupt anytime *after* thirty, you didn't learn a damned thing in your twenties.

That leads us to the following insights for getting on with it.

A successful entrepreneur opined "anyone can be an entrepreneur who wants to experience the deep dark canyons of uncertainty and ambiguity; and who wants to walk the breathtaking highlands of success. But I caution, do not plan to walk the latter, until you have experienced the former."

As a rule, from the deepest darkest roots of the mountain you emerge the same way you climb to its summit -- one step at a time. But then again, if you don't know where you're going, *any* path will take you there. So have a care.

Getting back to our efforts in spending our time in Sunlight and Twilight, businesswoman B Coster summed it up nicely, "Nothing that sends you to the grave with a smile on your face comes easy. Work hard doing what you love. Find out what gives you energy and improve on it."

Personally, having followed that travel plan -- from early depths of failure to energizing heights -- I don't see any reason not to remain in the Sunlight until the Reaper sweeps me someday, hopefully, cleanly away. Why retire to Twilight if you still thrive in the Sun? However, if you *do* enter into a Twilight period by choice (i.e., enjoying leisurely pursuits with ample resources,) you are doubly blessed indeed. Until then, better you get to steppin'. It's not too late to start.

Gold. Get you some. One purchase at a time. --- Aristotle

Black BladeMarket Future Soar#1009554/7/03; 06:35:13

US market futures are screaming higher, USD is screaming higher, Gold takes a hit, oil and NatGas lower. Grim economic data top to bottom. Heavy fighting reported in Baghdad, chemical Ali dead, two more journalist bite the bullet, missile hits US tactical ops site south of Baghdad with several casualties, US soldiers use Saddam's "facilities" at his presidential palace, and WMD site detected. War is practically over. Hmmm...

Strange news all around. It's going to be an "interesting" day.

- Black Blade

a nation of oneTo silvercollector#1009564/7/03; 08:20:54

For someone who has never worked behind a desk, it is easy for them to recommend that you should work
behind a desk. For someone who has never had his face in the dirt, it is hard for them to imagine what that is
like. For some people, who have always had money and property and servants, they say, "If the poor man is
hungry, why doesn't he just ring the dinner bell?" or, "So what if there's no bread. Let them eat cake."
Someone who has never had even so much as a moment of genuine desperation is incapable of
understanding what a more typical man -who may have had decades of very profound desperation- will do in
hopes of rectifying his own situation. The one cannot comprehend the types of risk the other is willing to
take, in trying to get out of his desperation. And when those actions lead him deeper into the darkness, only
the typical man can understand how necessary it is to invent sheer, insupportable happiness. The majority of
men have done so for millennia. So even if gold does not go to da moon this very afternoon, let us not
muddy the water of this questionable morning with the grime of future times. Pog could go down, we know
that. It could go up, we know that. We knew that to begin with. Which will it do? This we do not know.
Tomorrow we will know. Jim Sinclair makes a fine point today. Is Saddam playing a long hand, or is Iraq
falling apart? Will the truth be known any time soon? Or will the news be chilled and tossed to make
whatever type of salad makes the US economy look good? Your answer is probably the same as mine.
Should one stick to reality and fundamentals, or adopt the adage, "When in the looney bin, do as the
loonies?" Good question. The answer can only be known for sure in retrospect. In the meantime we have to
make our best guess. If it is any comfort, Silvercollector, you are not alone. Millions share in your suspense.
But take heart. Life itself is an assurance. And the fact that we will all get to the other end of it, come what
may, one way or the other. In the meantime, when thinking about gold's volatility, I like to remember that
best of all possible songs,

Row, row, row your boat,
Gently down the stream.
Merrily, merrily, merrily, merrily,
Life is but a dream.

In this realm Gold of course is one of the more pleasanter of the dreams. And it is no coincidence that in the
above verse, the word 'merrily' is sung four times. It's because sometimes it takes us a while to catch on.

Black BladeWeapons of Mass Destruction Discovered#1009574/7/03; 08:41:55

Looks like Marines with the 101st found (supposedly French) rockets with mustard gas and sarin payloads ready to fire and a captured Iraqi colonel led US troops to a stash of sarin and tabin gas canisters at an agricultural center. Looks like the UN is left with egg on their face now. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

21mabry(No Subject)#1009584/7/03; 08:58:08

Was up late last night watching the war, an interesting thing I read on the bottom of the screen stated Iraq is bankrupt and 300 billion in debt. The countries were listed who were creditors, usual suspects, U.S. ,FRANCE,GERMANY. The next statment read we need to get Iraq to turn a profit.It was late and I dont remember the guys name who said this.I truly thought what telling statment turn a profit. Well I guess Iraq is their new cash cow. The resources of that country are already bought and sold.
a nation of one. . .#1009594/7/03; 09:21:59

One thing that concerns me is that the news has lost its credibility. It may be true that the Americans have found French rockets aimed at the Americans and cocked and ready to go off, and that an Iraqi colonel led them to them. But how can anyone be certain anymore that tomorrow the colonel will not turn out to have been paid by the Americans to set that up, or that the rockets were put there by Saddam and his men and not by the Americans? These are not accusations, just questions. Time will answer them. It has already been said that events will be shown to be consistent with the US motivation for the invasion. We already know that the news is managed to show the picture that is wanted. We know also that the government is complicit in the manipulation of markets -even doing so in cooperation with other countries- and that managing news is an effective way of creating false impressions. Haven't we seen by now enough to know that little we are told is entirely real, but that there is usually some catch to it? Or is it the case that George Bush is the hero that he appears to be? That American soldiers are not being hurt significantly? That the Iraqis really are incompetent cowards about to destroy us en masse with French and German and Russian weapons? That gold has no real value? That American stocks are cheap? That bonds are a good deal? That war will put more wealth into our pockets? Or is it true that the value of gold is real, and that only the tarnish is temporary? That stocks are so worthless that if the government didn't buy them they would collapse? And where are they getting the money to do that with? Are they printing it? Or are they taking it from you and me in taxes? Or both? I'm sorry, but now that I am past fourteen, I just can't force myself to pretend that I believe every little thing any more. Of course, if, fifty years from now, it turns out that the story of the French missles really is what the news fabricators say that it is, I will gladly adjust my view. Until then, however, I am not going to hold my breath. I love America, but for lying I have no use.
Nakajimaatlantic monthly article#1009604/7/03; 09:29:22

Must read article in current issue of the Atlantic Monthly about Saudi Arabia: "Fall of the House of Saud".
> Basic idea is that we are supporting this corrupt regime which is one of the biggest terror sponsors in the world in return for the free flow of oil. Oh, and they keep $1 trillion deposited in US Banks and another trillion in the stock market in return for our good favor......
>It is a dangerous game of chicken
>The author says the day of reckoning is soon......

Nakajimacoin prices#1009614/7/03; 09:43:45

I'm getting quotes from coin dealers of $25. to $30. above spot on Eagles and Maple Leafs. Does this sound like a good deal?
Gandalf the WhiteSir Nakajima !#1009624/7/03; 10:01:55

Nakajima (4/7/03; 09:43:45MT - msg#: 100961)
coin prices
NO ! That is NOT a "good deal" !
IF you wish a "good deal", just call SIR MK at USAGOLD !
Telephone numbers are here on the FORUM !

Mr Greshamsilvercollector#1009634/7/03; 10:22:22

Here's a thought: People typically get mortgages on their home purchases, and no one seems to think this odd or deleterious. They do this so that they may enjoy the benefits of home ownership sometime in their lives before they have saved up $200,000 in cash to plunk down at the closing.

When my Dad's home, in a nice suburban neighborhood, goes up $100,000 in "value" in a few years, without a mortgage on it, so does the house next door, owned by a young couple and mortgaged to the hilt.

Of course these "investments" and people's views of them can and do get out of hand, but the initial position seems to have been a reasonable one. You may borrow, during your productive years, in order to take a position -- in real estate, a business enterprise, or in ANOTHER holding -- that will benefit you more than the likely cost of the interest you will pay. There is no Divine Proscription against doing this, just a heightened need for common sense.

Doing your math before you get in, and knowing when to switch out before the position turns against you, these are the inescapable responsibilities you have to your own survival. 'Twas ever thus...

Socrates964Markets - watch those bonds!#1009644/7/03; 11:00:11

A few comments:

-the fact that gold stocks are diverging bullishly from POG is telling us that we're near the bottom, IMHO - may be wrong, but if we assume that the large shorts had inside knowledge of some kind, then they wouldn't be covering now if the next act is a trashing of POG to $300 or lower. Looks to me like the usual 'the buyer always pretends he's a seller' stuff.

-Dollar hasn't moved above 103 in any significant way.

-Right now, I think the most important thing is the long bond (bond markets are generally much more intelligent than equity markets), which has sold down to the floor set earlier in the month (110 on the 30-yr and 113.2 on the 10-year) - sure doesn't look like bonds are discounting rate cuts/low inflation due to cheap oil to me. I see a break of support around these levels as an important signal - any thoughts?

Daniel DruffLet's think about this for a moment#1009654/7/03; 11:20:09

We absolutely know the end game of the establishment They will loan themselves millions and billions of Dollars/Yen/Euro's/etc. and buy gold, silver, and all sorts of tangible assets. As the prices triple they will sell one third and pay off the fiat debt. Now then, they have no debt and live happily ever after...assuming none of these physical assets are their god.

Let's close with an insightful comment from Sir silvercollector...

silvercollector (4/7/03; 00:43:54MT - msg#: 100947)

What a sick bunch of mutant freaks. We live in a truely messed up world.

It really is a sin cursed world in which we live...silvercollect is exactly right.



mikal@Socrates964#1009664/7/03; 11:39:37

Turning points in gold, bonds and dollar. I hear ya.
ShapurBond Market monetization#1009674/7/03; 12:05:54

Bonds will continue to do well because the fed will buy them all the way down to zero yield (or close to, etc). Sir John Templeton said that a few years back and when I heard that I really thought about it. Now we can see the strong bond trend. The bond shorts or bond bears keep warning of impending higher rates---from what?

"Defall"ation of the dollar will be supported all the way to the end of the road. The fed will support Fannie, and Freddie and Sallie too. The fed will buy good corporate bonds too. The fed will own a lot of good assets at the bottom----Someone here just said that.

Bond funds were 1st quarter winners--a trend will get followed and then when the public starts bidding for those great "risk free" bonds--look out!

Daniel Drufftone#1009684/7/03; 13:14:22

Shapur (4/7/03; 12:05:54MT - msg#: 100967)
Bond Market monetization
Bonds will continue to do well because the fed will buy them all the way down to zero yield (or close to, etc). Sir John Templeton said that a few years back and when I heard that I really thought about it. Now we can see the strong bond trend. The bond shorts or bond bears keep warning of impending higher rates---from what?

IMO, this is not only the message but also the tone which will win the day. Actually, we don't have to point anything out to anybody...after all, if a society has all sorts of fiat floating around it's just a matter of time before a shortage of some piece of equipment or commodity pops up...and then UP goes the price...and then before long, UP goes something else...and so on. The physical investors are positioned beautifully. And the paper players have just gone to school.


Topaz@Socrates Shapur - Bonds#1009694/7/03; 13:22:20

The Long end appears to be reacting to SM rallies whilst the Short maturities are rock solid. Arbitrage will keep the 10's and 30's @ 4 and 5 % respectively for the time being.
These "rallies" are all failing to follow through ie: a futures driven "pop" on the open and declining throughout the day...volume is also of consern.
I get the distinct impression ALL stocks and Corp Bonds at Dow 7000 will be owned by the "management" so a move below that seems improbable...Bonds otoh have reached their nadir and a revisit to 4.65% Long Yield (Triple-bottom) will be catastrophic. Lower Oil prices at this point in time will be the disinflationary catalyst imho.

Daniel DruffIs Silver Firming?#1009704/7/03; 13:40:39

Use caution when stacking silver! Do not store large quantities in the middle of a me on can damage the building.


Topaz@Daniel#1009714/7/03; 13:43:03

You said:
...if a society has all sorts of fiat floating around it's just a matter of time before a shortage of some piece of equipment or commodity pops up...
The problem as I see it is not "too much money" but "too much money in too few hands"...classic 1929.
There won't be a general inflation until all this money can filter down to the masses. if you can figure out how, short of giving it away, (Hyperinflation) Mr Greenspan and his ilk would dearly like to talk to you. <wink>

21mabry(No Subject)#1009724/7/03; 13:53:44

The stock market gave back alot of the early gains today, doesn t it look like a market of the big traders it does not seem like a market driven by the smaller investors, the swings are to wild.Unless you have the ability to get in and out quick this is not the place to be. Gold did not get hammered as bad as I thought it would. These are strange investing times we are living in. 21
Daniel DruffTopaz#1009734/7/03; 13:54:25

"There won't be a general inflation until all this money can filter down to the masses. if you can figure out how, short of giving it away, (Hyperinflation) Mr Greenspan and his ilk would dearly like to talk to you. <wink>" Topaz

These guys already got it credit cards.


Socrates964Bonds#1009744/7/03; 13:55:11

Yes I agree, the yield curve is like a carpet with a dead dog underneath it, you can move the bulge around to one end of the carpet or the other, you can even steamroller the carpet so that the bulge is spread more evenly, but the malodorous bulge remains in some shape or other.

More specifically, if foreigners start dumping the long end, then I expect Bernanke and friends to step in with the magic printing press to act as market maker - nevertheless 2 points to be made:

a) right now bonds show that the market isn't buying the oil-driven recovery story.

b) if bond prices don't take the strain, some other variable has to - I'm betting on the exchange rate.

oh and of course...

c) the monetization that is necessary to staunch the flow of unwanted bonds should be good for POG.

BelgianIran#1009754/7/03; 13:56:50

A member of an European Institute for Strategic studies, stated bluntly in a TV debate, that the White House is discussing, Iran, as the next one, to be invaded, in the axis of evil. This comes after the Blair, guaranteed, that no other country will be invaded.
The administration is still in doubt if it should happen before or after 2004 elections.
I really don't know what to think about this. Anyone ?

a nation of oneReply to Belgian (4/7/03; 13:56:50MT - msg#: 100975)#1009764/7/03; 14:19:24

It kind of lends credence to the more tawdry websites, which have been saying all along that one important objective is to render less effective the enemies of Israel. Whether this is desireable is subject to debate. And what effect these expansive American imperical ambitions may have on pog, the markets, and various economies is as much your guess as it is mine. But at some point I should expect that fundamental realities will be what ultimately make themeselves felt.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio#1009774/7/03; 14:30:24

Why should YOU buy gold from USAGOLD - Centennial?

Because no one else will do it for you.


rare goldBelgian#1009784/7/03; 14:34:35

Regarding Iran, my answer could get me booted like my old comrade Rock however I typically don't like to address hypothicals especially considering the source. Until I see concret documentation concerning a US plan to invade Iran I'll with hold my thesis.


21mabrymoney to the masses#1009794/7/03; 14:50:20

Daniel Druff, how about congress passing a law that lets the small fry investors like me, cash in our beaten up 401k with no taxes or penalties due. would that help our economy? I know this wont happen, just a thought.
Antipodean BugESF reversing their tactics?#1009804/7/03; 14:52:02

ESF HQ......"Hey boys, the market is beginning to
suspect our operations. Instead of consistently trashing
gold in NY each day, you guys are going to have start
working the night shift.
So go to town on the price in Asia each night and then
we'll let the market in NY rally a little the following
morning. That'll disguise our operations.
Gosh aren't we clever!"

TopazChemical Ali Dead.#1009814/7/03; 14:59:31

Boy! I'm SO relieved...The Worlds a better place without him...or was it Her?
I must admit to a total lack of foreknowledge of this "bad mother"...and if the Media portrail of him/her is correct, I'm the only person on the planet who was not aware of this scoundrels misdeeds...anyway, about Gold...
This $320 level should provide strong support. (we filled at $312..then $317, before the "exuberance" set in) Looking forward to reporting season, on the back of a benign 2% end-of-quarter Dollar reverse opposed to 10% in Q2-Q4 '02, we could reasonably expect some ugly Numbers from Dow components. This should trigger Dollar weakness, Bond strength, and a PoG uptick...Lets watch!

Black BladeA casualty of war: The dollar#1009824/7/03; 15:08:36


A sick greenback

It wasn't like the dollar wasn't already sick. America has a current account deficit to kill for. It stood at US$462 billion, or about 4.7 percent of GDP in the third quarter 2002. This is expected to hit the 5 percent mark in early 2003. If there aren't enough foreigners to pump money for your benefit, you either have to export more or start importing less. And to do this the currency starts depreciating, making your exports cheaper and imports more expensive, thus reducing the current account gap. America is running the largest current account deficit ever seen. And if it doesn't find enough foreigners to invest at home, the dollar might well have to take a knock. And attracting money isn't easy given the plunging interest rates. Add to this a sluggish US economy, which will make it progressively tougher to attract foreign investors. According to Stephen Roach, the chief economist at Morgan Stanley, this situation can't go on forever. And according to Herbert Stein's Law, things that can't go on forever don't. America has been there before. In 1985, when the current account deficit was less than it is now (as a percentage of GDP), a revision in market perceptions caused the dollar to drop from 240 to 140 against the yen and 3.3 to 1.8 against the Deutsche Mark. That the dollar is sick and losing ground is shown by the fact that in the past year it has lost about 14 percent of its value on the trade weighted basis.

The war to save the dollar

Among the many theories on why the US is attacking Iraq is the dollar theory. The dollar derives its strength from the fact that the world trusts it over all other currencies. So even in the post Bretton Woods floating rate world, the dollar is a hard currency which central banks around the world hold as their reserve asset. With the coming of the euro, which is backed by the third, fifth and sixth largest economies of the world, the dollar was threatened. But in the very near term, with the euro zone teetering on the edge of recession and deflation; it doesn't pose much of a threat to the dollar. The uncertainty associated with the new currency also prevented the dollar from being dethroned from its royal perch. Saddam Hussein did his bit in weakening the dollar when he switched from selling his oil in dollars to doing so in euros. This he did as a statement of anti-Americanism. Iran is planning to make this transition to euros and even Venezuela is open to selling its oil in euros as opposed to dollars. It is also true that the Saudis are open to trading in both dollars and euros. So there might have emerged a situation where a very large part of the oil in the world would have traded in euros, and not against dollars. This would have weakened the dollar's position as the world's reserve currency. Countries around the world would start switching to euros, and thus weaken the dollar. So it is claimed by some that America, which obviously benefits most from a strong dollar, was fighting to dethrone Saddam (and possibly Iran at a future date) to prevent the dollar from losing ground.

Black Blade: An interesting article worth reading. The weak US economy and the dollar losing its place as the preeminent reserve currency looks supportive for gold over the long term.

Black BladeMore job searchers just quit looking#1009834/7/03; 15:34:46


WASHINGTON — Frustrated workers are calling it quits.

The number of working-age Americans who dropped out of the labor force — meaning they aren't working and gave up on finding work — rose for the sixth straight month in March, further proof the labor market is stagnant at best. The proportion of people 16 and older who are in the labor force — looking for work or working — is at its lowest in nearly a decade, the Labor Department said Friday. A fifth of the 8.4 million people who are unemployed have been out of work 27 weeks or longer.

Black Blade: A "grim" employment picture. And it's getting worse day by day. It is funny to listen to Labor Secretary Elaine Chou lie on camera about how the jobs picture is just "peachy"

geA lot of doji's in the candlestick charts...#1009844/7/03; 15:39:05$INDU,$UTIL,$TRAN,$COMPQ,$SPX,$WLSH,$USD,$XEU,$NIKK,$FTSE,$DAX,$CRB,$WTIC,$GOLD,$TYX,$VIX,$CPC,$XSF

Paper Avalanche"Popping the clutch" not having the desired effect#1009854/7/03; 15:49:47

I thought somebody ordered a rally this morning? The DJIA futures were up 229 while I was shaving, then lo and behold we end the day on a whimper, not a bang (up 23 points).

You can cut the manipulation in the air with a knife.

The illusion has been kept real one more day.

There's always tomorrow.


glennh10Re: Good News in Silver...#10098604/07/03; 16:05:54

"If I'm not mistaken, in each of these instances, the POS rapidly moved up 50 or 60 cents and then the LARGE COMMERCIALS let the LARGE SPECULATORS out of their short positions at the last minute."

I guess I've been living in a dream world too long, but I don't see why the large commercials would want to relieve their counterparty, the large speculators off the hook. If I owe you money (or an amount of gold, silver, or whatever), due to you on a specific date, what would be your motivation to just blow the whole thing off at the last minute, and let me off the hook? I'm not saying I disagree with your analysis, for all I know, you're likely right on target. But, if this market is so convoluted for such a thing to legitimately happen, time and again, then I have to conclude that the fraud gets only thicker as you go up the financial food chain, until, at the top, you reach those in charge of investigating cases of fraud. In any event, the workings of such a thing is way beyond me. And, it tells me that one's only financial protection is physical gold or silver, in the hand (unless one is fortunate to be on the inside of the scam). Why would one throw away their profit due? Any explanation would be appreciated.

Black BladePA - Popping Clutches#10098704/07/03; 16:08:03

You may have also noticed that the market indices were up strongly on huge "block trades" in the early going. The quick start to over 200 on the DOW triggered a heck of a lot of short covering before the rocket burned out. The block trades dried up a little before 3:00 est and then fell back to earth. The small fry are simply not participating in this market. It is essentially all institutional players (ie. hedge funds and investment houses). I see it as an attempt to lure out the gun shy little guys into participating in this market and they are not going for it. Note all the goofy excuses used as well. The investors isn't playing because: "it's cold outside", "it's hot outside", "it's the war", "it's the CNN effect", etc. ad infinitum.

As for myself, I just sit back with a cold one (or a hot cup of mate) and just laugh my a&$ off in amusement. This isn't a market - it's a circus or perhaps a "freak show". It has absolutely nothing to do with economic fundamentals. The same mindless euphoria is seen in the currency market. Meanwhile precious metals are selling at bargain basement prices. The so called "war premium" is gone and traders are only playing gold off the US dollar. I see that in after hours trade gold has bounced back a couple of bucks in spite of the war being essentially over. It should get rather "interesting" and "entertaining" for a while longer.

- Black Blade

CoBra(too)Poppin' the Clutch -#10098804/07/03; 17:07:44

Or even better don't follow the vagaries of war - as they have absolutely no l.t. effect on the markets, nor will they change the underlying drab fundamentals of the economy, currency and the debt situation.

In terms of the big picture does it really matter where the sm's are heading short term, as there is no direction or trend anyway.

Without being a TA guy in the sense of the word - I've been leaning more towards the fundamental economic conditions as my main compass to decipher and then follow the general direction indicated. Short term swings in markets may be profitable for some - though in the end it's a suckers game, or mostly a losing proposition (Just look at all the frustrated day traders of yesteryear!).

There is one observation, though, I do think has some merit. In the latest POG rally the PM shares did not only NOT take part, they sold off instead. Recently the HUI and the XAU at least stabilized and have probably done better than the POG itself. I personally construe this as a sign of the POG correction to have run its course - as most of the major Gold rallys have been led by the Miners (Small wonder as the annual supply deficit is now touching 40% of production).

This may be a godsent to load up on physical - in your own preferred form - again. I sense the next - or is it second leg of this infant Gold Bull is allready in the starting gate.

Good Luck - cb2

Daniel DruffNot a bad idea#10098904/07/03; 17:55:59

21mabry (4/7/03; 14:50:20MT - msg#: 100979)
money to the masses
Daniel Druff, how about congress passing a law that lets the small fry investors like me, cash in our beaten up 401k with no taxes or penalties due. would that help our economy? I know this wont happen, just a thought.
...or at the very least, waive the penalties. I think that would goose-up activity/volitility for awhile.


steadywhere is aristotle?#10099004/07/03; 18:16:44

ok where are u at ari? u didnt bite at my scpetic remark regardig the silver bill. unless i can send a digital missle your way to get u to comment how in the heck am i suppose to gain more understanding? how can i pick your brain? promise it wont cause any pain and all here will stand to gain, and our live the same will never be so have a dialouge with me , best of all its free.
see ari at one point i thought i understood u and what you where saying. then came the property / money debate. and now u busted out with the thought that the dinar wont be very good for gold. i dot disagree with ya , but what im not getting is what roel gold -plays for ya. is it roperty, an dif its property why bother with it having any connection to money> or should gold be free floating let go and have no relationship to fiat money but the fiat money tags along on golds value> help me out here . dont send me back to the trail as ive walked it once and am revisting it again for the 3rd or 4th time. or maybe u are just tired of explaing it to the next generation. wonder if the elders ever got tired passing down the oral traditions?
but ari i really understood your reply to the person who was worried about sunlight twilight time. one purchase at atime. according to ones own understanding as another says!

TownCrierWe can only hope it is, and remains, an Allocated account#10099104/07/03; 18:28:47

The WGC reported the following today:
The ICICI Bank in India is planning the launch of a gold accumulation plan. According to press reports, the terms are that an investor may deposit Rs1,000 ($21 at prevailing rates this morning), for which the bank will deposit 1.5g of gold to the account. Once the amount deposited is equivalent to 10g of gold (at a pre-determined gold price), then the customer may take delivery of a 10g gold coin. The Bank has recently started selling ‘ICICI Bank Pure Gold’- certified 24 carat (99.99%) pure gold coins at its branches in Mumbai and Delhi. Mr. Amitabh Chaturvedi, head of retail channels and liabilities group, ICICI Bank is quoted as describing the programme thus "It'd work like a forward contract where gold will be priced at a pre-determined rate, that is, the day he starts depositing money on that count." He also told the press that "In the last three months since the launch, we've been able to sell 40 kg of gold. For the next year, our target is 3 tonnes, and we are confident of being able to make it".

Well, at the very least we can say, with a 10-gram unit deliverable, this program is far superior to the recently launched Australian ASX version using 400 oz LGD bars.

Why not choose the real thing? In times of stress and financial default, all paper -- even those sheets having the magic word 'gold' written on them -- can burn under the same flame.


FlaccusSteady#10099204/07/03; 18:56:23


Will the dinar be exchangeable for the dollar, euro, yen, etc.?

Let's start with that.

One question at a time? What doya say there, Steady? Up for it. Short answers pls.

BTW Are you related to Gollum? Great character. Loved that part of the movie.

steadyChart of who "owns" the Federal Reserve#10099304/07/03; 19:07:45

Chart 1

Federal Reserve Directors: A Study of Corporate and Banking Influence
Published 1976
Chart 1 reveals the linear connection between the Rothschilds and the Bank of England, and the London banking houses which ultimately control the Federal Reserve Banks through their stockholdings of bank stock and their subsidiary firms in New York. The two principal Rothschild representatives in New York, J. P. Morgan Co., and Kuhn,Loeb & Co. were the firms which set up the Jekyll Island Conference at which the Federal Reserve Act was drafted, who directed the subsequent successful campaign to have the plan enacted into law by Congress, and who purchased the controlling amounts of stock in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 1914. These firms had their principal officers appointed to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Advisory Council in 1914. In 1914 a few families (blood or business related) owning controlling stock in existing banks (such as in New York City) caused those banks to purchase controlling shares in the Federal Reserve regional banks. Examination of the charts and text in the House Banking Committee Staff Report of August, 1976 and the current stockholders list of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks show this same family control.
more at link!

CytekFrom Jim Sinclair's MineSet#10099404/07/03; 19:09:21

As such and without specifics, gold's movement may be the most accurate forecast available for changes in fortunes of war and politics.

8 to 11 trading day basis:

Resistence: First @ 327/330
Very major @ 335/337
Intermediate (maximum potential)@ 341/344

Support: Very major @ 319/324
Major @ 313/315
Major @ 307/310

June gold made a slightly lower low this week than last, by about $2.00,although we did not expect lower lows. We continue to think that gold should not trade lower over the next 8 to 11 trading days. In fact, the greater probability is that gold will chop upside from Friday's level and trap rather than chop downside and trap.

Maximum rally action for this period carries to 335/337. Thereafter, and assuming a resumption of uptrend - 341/344 will be very strong resistance -- but subject to some degree of modification after another two weeks. As
such, 341/344 resistance is given in the off chance that gold breaks hard to the upside -- ahead of our timetable given here. That is, any premature run to the upside will not breech this level without substantial corrective

TownCrier... versus an UNallocated account, that is.#10099504/07/03; 19:14:09

To be sure, from the perspective of a gold advocate, delivery at each 10-gram increment is preferred; otherwise, it isn't exactly gold ownership, but rather an exercise in contract law.

Call Centennial this week for the real thing shipped to you at good prices.


R PowellBlack Blade // CoBra(too)#10099604/07/03; 19:34:49

War news supercedes fundamentals?

I've been pondering the same (100987) as Black Blade but thought the stock markets reactions to war news, to the exclusion of all other long term financial indicators, has extended to include the currency and metals markets as well. Other than perhaps grains, what markets haven't aligned themselves to reacting to the televised war news? I wonder when they will return to their susceptibility to the daily financial indicators. I believe this point will be close to the bottoming of gold's price retraction.

CoBra(too): Good to hear from you again. I think you're right (100988) about stocks leading the price of metals. So, hopefully, as you say, the mining stock indexes should be a good leading indicator of the next leg up. Yes, and as a speculator I hope we're right.
Now, if the markets start reacting to fundamentals and the coming earnings reports rather than JUST war news, and, if the HUI and XAU can not only stabilize but start upward and with both POG and POS certainly near the bottom of their recent (pick any recent time frame) range, then.....?
The icing on the cake would be some crying, screaming and pulling of hair about the ongoing debts and deficits (national, state, corporate and consumer) in the public financial world. Just one man's opinion here, of course, and as always, patience will be required to see if any of this comes to pass.

R PowellSki#10099704/07/03; 19:47:20

I saw your earlier post. Must reply tomorrow due to the current onset of brain fatigue. I wish someone would decide where to set the clocks and then leave them alone forever! I'll be tired now until I get my hour of sleep back in the Fall not to mention getting up now in the dark.
Free Gold and Time(too)...

Dollar BillNakajima#10099804/07/03; 20:10:57

Your right, the Atlantic monthly article is enlightening.
Whodathunk Saudi Arabia was such a mess.
The one item not mentioned, in your post or the article, which IS long recognised here on the forum, is that Saudi Arabia gets a pass from the US on any issue because it trades oil in Dollars. First and foremost.

steady nevadas attempt to circulate silver as money gains media attention#10099904/07/03; 20:16:18

Nevada vs. the Federal Reserve?
Posted April 4, 2003

By Kelly Patricia O Meara
As Insight reports this week, there currently are 60 different forms of currency in circulation throughout the United States, and the reasons for issuing this alternative money are as numerous as the currencies themselves [see "Alternative Money Has Redeeming Value"].

While many have begun using new forms of currency to keep the money within their community, there are others, such as Bernard von NotHaus, founder of the National Organization for the Repeal of the Federal Reserve, who are intent on using it to publicize the populist claim that the Federal Reserve is illegitimate. Now it appears that even some states are beginning to question whether the Fed is constitutional.

A bill recently submitted to the Nevada Assembly Committee on Constitutional Amendments directs the issuance of Nevada silver coins. The act, now under consideration, states in part that:

the purported delegation by the Congress of the power to issue money to the Federal Reserve Bank, a privately owned corporation, is a violation of the terms of the U.S. Constitution;

read the rest at the link!

mikalCarrying costs long-term#10100004/07/03; 20:38:34

By: Ed Henry
President Bush is asking Congress for an additional $75 billion to fight the war in Iraq. Where is this money to come from?
Borrowing is out of the question, at least for the moment. Having already given the nation $638 billion in new debt since the beginning of fiscal 2002, the Bush administration has its hands tied since hitting the national debt limit of $6.4 trillion on February 20th, some 44 days ago depending on when you read this article.
Obviously, Bush would borrow the money if he could. And he would probably borrow a lot more than the $75 billion he's now asking of Congress. The man thinks nothing of plunging you, your children and grandchildren, deeper and deeper in debt in order to push his go-for-broke attempt to establish the New World Empire.
Thinking that April 15th will bring some sort of windfall bonus to government coffers would be a serious mistake. The feds thought that last year, and the result was a serious shortfall in expected revenue that had to be made up for by borrowing.
The U.S. Treasury reports revenues so far this year even worse than at the same time last year, and last year was a disaster.
Do you think that the government tightens its belt because its income is down? Think again.
The budget for fiscal 2002 was a little over $2 trillion. The budget for 2003, just passed a few weeks ago, was for $2.13 trillion. And now, Bush and the Government Accounting Office (GAO) have submitted a 2004 budget totaling $2.2 trillion.
Anytime they have a shortfall in tax receipts, and rather than raise taxes, the government simply borrows the difference. Without batting an eye, they put it on the credit card.
A good part of this so-called borrowing is the money they steal from entitlements like Social Security, Medicare and sixteen others entitlement accounts. But they've already counted these into their budget as "off budget revenue" and when there's a shortfall in expectations here they'll borrow to make up for that too.
When one of these entitlements has a shortfall and wants to draw upon its so-called "trust fund," the government must either borrow the money or take it from the current budget's tax receipts shorting some other program. Since the beginning of fiscal 2002, several entitlements like Airports & Airways and Unemployment have needed money. Unemployment alone has required more than $38 billion to date with more to come.
The bulk of what the Bush administration is now calling "expected deficits" is made up for by borrowing from investors—people, organizations, and other countries willing to loan the government money because it's backed by every taxpayer in the United States. What has always been known as "the safest investment in the world."
So far, we've borrowed $3.7 trillion from these investors. And as these bonds, bills, notes or "securities" mature at the rate of about $5 billion a day, the Treasury replaces them with new issues as fast as they can. The alternative is to draw down on current tax receipts and cut back on the annual budget.
There's a lot of good faith to be maintained here. If investors ever begin to suspect that the U.S. Government has its back against the wall, is broke, or has no other way to raise money without shorting the very citizens guaranteeing loans—they may begin thinking that their money is at risk.
Not only could these investors stop loaning their money, but there could be a run on the Treasury. The securities now held can be cashed in before maturity at any time.
This is why you didn't hear much about the nation's financial position while the Bush administration was trying to pick up a "coalition of the coerced" and it's why you are not hearing much about it now while we invade Iraq and try to enlist the support of other nations to help the belligerents rebuild that nation afterwards.
To accomplish his goals, George W. Bush is even willing to create so much ill will in other nations of the world that the 80 to 97 percent of the people in these countries who are against the invasion of Iraq, including our coalition allies, might begin to boycott American products and send our trade deficit through the roof, a trade deficit already standing at more than $240 billion.
Precisely how much is at stake at this point is more difficult to assess than the cost of the invasion and rebuilding of Iraq.
The most crucial question is why Congress hasn't simply rubber-stamped an increase to the national debt limit and allowed Bush to continue his fantastic borrowing venture. This is usually accomplished automatically with little or great political grandstanding, but always with the same resultant increase. Today, there isn't anything mentioned or anything scheduled on the subject.
And while every State and City in the country is in financial straits, the only thing they can count on is that the budgeted money for federal programs like Education, Agriculture, Homeland Security, and so forth, will be used elsewhere until the Bush administration can continue borrowing us into oblivion.
"Published originally at : republication allowed with this notice and hyperlink intact."

mikalThe "irony" of PPT self-denial #10100104/07/03; 21:35:28

Nelson Hultberg -Excerpts:
"Let's see if indeed the market is too huge to manipulate, and if it would actually require massive losses. Former Federal Reserve governor, Robert Heller, had the following to say about the size of the market in an article he wrote for the Wall Street Journal, on October 27, 1989 -- an article that shockingly advocates direct intervention by the Fed into the market to buy S&P futures:
"The stock market is certainly not too big for the Fed to handle," Heller stated. "The foreign exchange and government securities markets are vastly larger. Daily trading volume in the New York foreign exchange market is $130 billion. The daily volume for Treasury Securities is about $110 billion. The combined value of daily equity trading on the New York Exchange, the American Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ over-the-counter market ranges between $7 billion and $10 billion."
Observe that this figure of $7-$10 billion is for the combined trading of all the markets, and it is for 1989. Thus, we need to chop it some to arrive at figures for just the Dow, and then we need to expand it some to get today's figures. So let's assume the Dow's daily trading would have been approximately $5 billion in 1989, and that it has grown to around $15 billion today. This is hardly "hundreds of billions," as Mauldin claims. On the contrary, it is a very manageable sum as former Fed governor Heller maintained.....
"This is exactly what has been happening in the S&P futures pit recently, according to friends of mine who have been close to the action, and it represents the refinement of program-trading techniques that have been used with increasing effectiveness since the days of the 1987 Crash. The huge growth of electronic trading undoubtedly has helped to amplify the effect, since a vast, global universe of traders, hedgers and speculators are effectively on a hair trigger, each seeking to be a step or two ahead of the stampede. Traders in the S&P pits are among the first to see the buy programs coming, and it has happened often enough lately to cause them to pull their offers at the first hint that the usual suspects may be about to light the fuse. When the sellers then back away from their offers, the lightened supply that results makes it possible for the S&Ps to lift effortlessly, kicking off a chain reaction of hedge-buying in other indexes, as well as in specific stocks and related securities and derivatives. Once the panic starts, it is a simple matter for the perpetrators to take sizable profits just minutes after the rally has begun. And if they should conspire to kick things off just before the final bell, they can position their offers in Asian and European markets so as to reap substantial profits with almost no risk." ["Does the Plunge Protection Team Exist?", October 31, 2001, emphasis added.]
So we see that the market of $15 billion is quite manageable, and any organization who chooses to manage it would not have to lose money in the process at all. It seems that Mr. Mauldin is wrong on both of his cherished points. While Art Cashin and CNBC's crew of blow-dried script readers will naturally disagree with Ackerman, all savvy traders are in complete agreement with his view.
For example, Bill King of The King Report in New York and formerly the operator of several equity trading desks on the NYSE, wrote the following in an email to me: "The Fed learned in 1987 that they could rig markets via futures. On October 20, 1987, the US financial system collapsed. I remember my NYSE brokers calling me and saying specialists were leaving the floor because they were broke. But then NYSE Prez John Phellan blocked the doors and sent them back to their posts.
"Soon thereafter, Bankers Trust (the lender to the Street) started releasing money after the Fed guaranteed indemnity from any losses. But the real scheme occurred in the Missiles the MX (Major Market) futures.
"A clerk I know on the CBOT told me that Morgan doled out orders to several brokers who bought the MX futures recklessly. Since all other futures were closed and the Missiles were a thin market, the gains were explosive. After that experience, position limits were removed for all intents and purposes. The mechanism for intervention was discovered. [Emphasis added]
"It was utilized after the UAL-inspired mini-crash in 10/89, but it was during Q1 of 1990, as the Japan bubble was bursting, that regular 'ugly buying' of SP futures occurred. 'Name' brokers would 'buy ugly' S&Ps just after US stocks would open sharply lower on Japan. CME floor contacts said the brokers would bid for contracts and kept increasing bids before the crowd could respond. It didn't take CME locals long to figure out the scheme, and they would stand aside and let the brokers race the futures higher.
"During the late '90s, with that series of crises, there were so many 'V' bottoms on 'ugly futures' buying that Richard Russell and others who had previously rebuked intervention realized it was a regular operation.
"I would guess that something is planned for the commencement of war with Iraq. And of course, only Larry Kudlow and other supply siders who thought the Fed was too tight during the biggest stock bubble in history don't know about the gold rig." [email to me March 11, 2003 from Bill King, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ]
Other PPT Misconceptions
Mauldin has other arrows in his quiver, however. He contends that massive amounts of liquidity would have to be injected to pull off such manipulation, which would be impossible to conceal. But as Ackerman and King show, this is not true. Manipulation can be accomplished with minimal S&P futures contracts because of the combustible nature of the S&P pits whenever the shorts see large buy programs coming.....
But here's the irony. This, in effect, becomes one of the weaknesses of the PPT, and why it will ultimately fail. The government knows it can't use the PPT indiscriminently. It has to be selective and keep as low a profile as possible so as to avoid exposure. If not, it will destroy the system, which would negate the PPT's purpose of preserving the system. So their intentions are to not OVERUSE it. This makes the PPT a tool of limited capacity.
This means that as the bear market increases in intensity, the PPT will prove ineffective because it cannot be used in a massive enough way for fear of detection. (This assumes that the Fed will continue to fear detection and not risk destroying the credibility of the markets by wholesale public intervention.) Eventually the market will move too fast, in too powerful of a panic mode for PPT operatives to counter it. There will come a time when they can no longer "light the match to the kindling" of the S&P. This, however, will not keep them from trying to avert the consequences of the bear market all the way down. They will feel they must "do something." But in the end all they will be able to do is buy some time and cause a lot of delusion along the way. No group, private or governmental, has ever been able to stop a "primary trend" in the markets. As the venerable Richard Russell reminds us, "the market always does what it wants to." The PPT will DELAY the ultimate destiny of the market, but it will not be able to STOP it."

skiSilver .... Glennh 10 #100986#10100204/07/03; 22:43:56

Glennh you said, "Why would one throw away their profit due?" (As the Comex Large Commercials let the Large Speculators off the silver hook)

I thought I might take a few different approaches to answer this one ... take your pick.

1. It has been said that Americans are good checker players but lousay chess players. The actions the Large Commercials are more in keeping with playing chess.

2. Think of the movie "The Sting" with Paul Newman and Jackie Gleason. The whole game is all about the final winning hand and not the small potatoes at the beginning.

3. Recently read a book "Stock Market Wizzards". Some of these successful players are so good that they will never give you even one piece of incite into their successful opperations period. Nonetheless, they are successful year in and year out.

4. Went ocean fishing once. First we bought some small, artificial fishing lures at the pier. A mile from shore, we successfully used the lures and got into a large school of small fish. It surprised me that after catching a few buckets of small fish, we got underway and left the very area where the fish were feeding so heavily. Why leave the area when we were going to soon fill the boat with good, small fish? Went out to deep water and put perfectly good, small fish on our hooks and threw them into the ocean. Caught a gang of good, LARGE fish.

5. Was in the service at one time. Near pay-day, at the local off-base beer joints, you always ran into pool sharks. The game was to let you win a little but for them to win more often or win the bigger bets.

6. All gambling casino's operate on the principle that they want you to win some of the time because they know that they ALWAYS win in the long run.

7. To be a successful investor you do not need to be a jack of all trades who makes money in all manner of markets. You only need to be very good at one market, especially if you can influence some sort of control over the outcome of the roll of the dice. Said another way, "Tell me the direction that XYZ corporation stock will trade on April first of each year and I will never have to work another day in my life ..... and nobody will be the wiser!"


With regard to the POS and the control that the COMEX has over this market .... I believe:

a. that in the huge run-up that silver is going to make is going to make all of this frustration entirely worthwhile.

b. the positive forces that are lined up to move silver are so huge that the present COMEX market distortions will be suddenly and completely swept aside and will hardly qualify as a historical footnote.

c. the COMEX market distortions are allowing me to continue to add to my silver postions which means that in the long run, I will do even better.


Glennh10 .... truly, and by every measure, this whole POS puzzle is a complex MIND GAME. Numerically, most will be turned off from even playing the game (and will only hold physical), others will be frustrated and quit, and a minority will apply themselves to understand the game and will subsequently reap the rewards of becoming "good players". IMHO, holding physical silver will be a great and profitable strategy but the game can be played much more profitably by bringing other strategies into play.

In other words, I'm playing chess this time around...

mikalWill Fed unleash "bull in the china shop" now or next month? #10100304/07/03; 23:04:29

Federal Reserve mulls emergency recession strategy By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer
WASHINGTON (April 7, 2003 6:14 p.m. EDT) -Excerpts: "Confronting new fears of recession, the Federal Reserve is refining an emergency economic rescue plan that includes further interest rate cuts and billions of dollars in extra cash for the banking system. The Fed's effort would be aimed at pulling the country out of a nosedive that has seen 465,000 jobs evaporate in just the past two months, raising fears among economists that the weak recovery from the 2001 recession is in danger of stalling out altogether. "Clearly, the Fed is in uncharted territory," said economist David Jones. "I think they will try some experimental moves." One key element hasn't been used successfully in a half-century. Based on comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other Fed officials, the central bank is expected to move beyond its traditional buying and selling of short-term Treasury securities held by banks to the direct purchase of longer-term securities in an effort to influence long-term interest rates. Also, Fed officials have indicated they are prepared in the event of an unexpected shock to the system to lend massive amounts of money directly to commercial banks to make sure that financial markets do not freeze up.
And as a third policy option, Fed officials have indicated they would explicitly state that if the federal funds rate is moved below its current 41-year low of 1.25 percent, it is likely to stay at the lower level as long as needed.....
"The best policy for dealing with deflation is to avoid it strenuously by acting pre-emptively," he said. Because of this, some economists believe the Fed will not wait until its May 6 meeting to put its plan into effect, opting to cut the federal funds rate through an emergency conference call, possibly as soon as this week. However, other analysts argue that the Fed will likely wait, hoping that the favorable tide of the war will bolster markets in coming weeks and restore confidence..."

Black BladeMarket Wrap Up – Puplava#10100404/07/03; 23:11:19


Viewing the economic weakness and the numerous earnings warnings, I remain skeptical of the rally's duration and sustainability. The economy has been in decline since the beginning of the year. The view from Wall Street is that this economic weakness is strictly due to the war. The excesses of the bubble are believed to be over. Yet there is no evidence that any of these so-called excesses have been cleansed from the system. The labor market reports show that more workers are losing their jobs and those who have lost their jobs are finding it more difficult to find a job. Those that are now unemployed are remaining unemployed for longer periods. According Mark Zandi, chief economist for, the true unemployment rate, factoring in underemployed, is closer to 12.4 percent. His figure for unemployment is up from 8.8 percent in April of 2000. Furthermore, many who have lost their jobs are no longer picked up by government statistics if they work part time or do small consulting work. Those that remain unemployed after their benefits run out are no longer considered unemployed according to the way the government measures unemployment. You become hypothetically employed once your unemployment benefits run out.

Black Blade: Indeed. The way that I have viewed unemployment aside from the "official" rate is based on the BLS own data. Many are simply discounted because they have given up, run out of benefits, etc. Watch the trend of "new jobs created" as well. Fewer jobs are created (even low paying jobs) while the rate of "first time claims" is steady to rising. Obviously something is seriously amiss with the "official" unemployment rate. I have been saying that unemployment is running between 11% and 12%, but that was not considering "under employment". I suspect that the "real" unemployment rate is much worse.


Investing in Today's Market

Therefore, given these circumstances, how should an investor play this market? That depends on one's risk tolerances and trading skills. If you are an adept trader, then trading the exchange listed funds would be an easy choice. They are liquid, and easy to trade in and out of. If you are a long-term investor, I would stick with the trend in "things" and especially commodities. Nothing that I see at the current moment would dissuade me from the view that commodities are in a new bull market, especially precious metals, energy, food and water, and instruments of war. Most investors and analysts inside the U.S. have a localized view of things as well as short-term memories. However, there is a larger world that exists and is emerging in Asia. The impact of China, which is one of the few countries experiencing robust economic growth, is going to have a profound impact on the world of commodities. Considering that almost all new excess production of energy is being consumed by China tells me energy will remain in a bull market throughout this decade and the next. Forget $10 oil or even $18-$20 oil after the war in Iraq is successfully concluded. There isn't the spare capacity to handle the needs of the West and an emerging China without higher prices.

Black Blade: This emerging Third World country is just getting started in the "Industrial Age" and is already the third largest consumer of oil. As the Chinese worker become more affluent they too will demand more "energy intensive" luxuries (let alone a growing industrial "energy intensive" manufacturing base). This growing affluence is just starting to be felt in the growing demand for precious metals in a newly liberalized gold market.


Volume was unusually low today with only 930 million shares traded on the NYSE and only 980 million shares on the Nasdaq. Most of the activity was generated in the futures pit and an arbitrage play in the cash markets. Market breadth was positive by a 5-3 margin on both exchanges. The VIX declined by 1.07 to 31.73 and the VXN fell 1.41 to 41.44.

Black Blade: Bingo! As I said earlier, the huge block trades one after another typically are indicative of larger than normal buying of index futures by deep pockets and NOT the individual investor (or even many individual investors). I notice this strange phenomenon repeated over and over on the real time ticker on many trading days (indices, shares and on high sudden volume that stops just as suddenly). This is a game being played by none other than institutional players. The same likely goes for the long/short positions of currency, bond and commodities players of late. PPT aka Working Group on Financial Markets, Federal Reserve, coincidence, "the great computer" behind the curtain, etc.? Whoever is involved, it certainly is not John and Jane Doe on Main Street.

mikalHigher rates on horizon #10100504/07/03; 23:34:28

"Time is ripe to lock in mortgages
April 7, 2003
by Sharon Epperson"

LemmingKaplan is VERY STRONGLY BULLISH on Gold#1010064/8/03; 00:31:49

Excerpt: >>>>>As a freak April snowstorm rages outside, my current outlook has been raised to VERY STRONGLY BULLISH on both gold and gold mining shares. Even as the price of gold itself has continued to move lower, HUI has made a series of higher lows: 112.61 on March 13, 114.06 on March 25, 114.22 on March 28, and 116.56 on April 7. Investor sentiment toward gold and its shares is continuing to deteriorate, even as the share prices are grinding higher. This is exactly the opposite of the behavior in early February when gold was peaking, and is the classic sign of an important intermediate-term bottom. In addition, the 112.61 HUI nadir on March 13, 2003 almost exactly matches the floor of 112.66 on November 22, 2002, and therefore completes a very bullish double bottom. As of this morning, when gold touched $319.30, its lowest point since December 2, 2002, Comex gold commercials were probably net long for the first time since December 2001, thus confirming a strong buy signal on both gold and its shares. The intraday trading pattern since March 12 has seen gold shares repeatedly open at or near their lowest levels of the day, then gradually recover as the day progresses, which is quite bullish. This indicates that institutions are accumulating repeatedly at key support levels. Gold analysts who were very bullish at the recent top, and pounded the table all the way down, have recently become quiet, indicating that even they are afraid of appearing foolish as gold appears to be moving against them. <<<<<<<

Kaplan posts & reviews some uncannily accurate forecasts in this article. I have printed & archived some of his predictive formulas.

It looks as though the drought is over. The plethora of excellent articles on USA Gold tonight is awesome!

Black BladeLemming - SJ Kaplan#1010074/8/03; 01:19:12

I guess it makes up for his missing the "run up" from $252 to the recent $390 an ounce gold. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

Black BladeOil supply less supple this time#1010084/8/03; 01:20:56,0,1480517.story?coll=bal%2Dbusiness%2Dheadlines

Less excess capacity and smaller inventories than before the '91 Iraq war mean no guarantee that prices will quickly return to their prewar levels.


LOS ANGELES -- As far as oil markets are concerned, this war against Iraq is nothing like the last one. Back then, adequate supplies were swiftly secured, and prices plummeted from record heights, even with two major exporters offline, Kuwaiti oil wells on fire and tankers slowed to a crawl in risky shipping lanes. Saudi Arabia and other nations had so much spare capacity that they could crank the valves wide open and calm oil traders' frayed nerves. Crude prices that shot up to $40.42 a barrel in the wake of Iraq's August 1990 invasion of Kuwait dropped more than $10 the day after the U.S. began bombing Iraq in January 1991. They returned to the economically comfortable $20 range a week later.

Fast-forward to 2003, and to another war with Iraq. Crude prices rose before the bombing started 19 days ago, to just under $40 a barrel, then fell once the fighting began, settling at $28.62 a barrel Friday as U.S. troops closed in on Baghdad. Glancing at prices, the two war scenarios might seem similar, said Amy Myers Jaffe, senior energy advisor at Rice University's Baker Institute in Houston. "But there are actually some huge differences that could come back to bite us." The most critical: This time around, there isn't much give in the global supply network. Any misstep can upset the supply-demand balance that holds prices steady.

Thirteen years ago, the market was overloaded with oil. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was trying to shore up prices by holding down output by members, whose surplus production capacity at the time was a rich 5 million barrels a day. Today, rarely used government stockpiles are ample, but commercial inventories in industrialized nations are at a 25-year low, able to meet about 50 days of demand, compared with 1990's 87-day cache. OPEC's extra oil production capacity has shrunk to between 700,000 and 1.2 million barrels a day by one estimate, at least 76% below what it was the summer of 1990. U.S. inventories are in record-low territory, holding only about 14 days worth of consumption. What's more, gasoline stocks are well below normal levels as the nation heads into the summer driving season. And output from domestic wells covers just 47% of what the country consumes.

Black Blade: This time Venezuela is barely at two thirds of pre-strike production, Nigeria is mired in civil war (in fact a major pipeline was blown up today), and Iraqi production is on hold. Third World demand is growing while reserves and production are shrinking. It will be years before any increase in Iraqi oil will come online and much of Venezuelan oil production has been permanently lost. "Interesting Times"

Black BladeAsian and Euro Markets Awash In Red#1010094/8/03; 01:51:56

Asian and Euro markets are giving back yesterday's gains as now the focus is more on the economy rather than the "mop up" action in Iraq.

- Black Blade

Old Yeller Very interesting#1010104/8/03; 02:58:49

An article on the PPT and GATA.Very well written,touches on
common themes for an appearance of a strong stock market and dollar and a correspondingly droopy POG.

BelgianBush - Blair in Ireland.#1010114/8/03; 04:01:49

They discuss the Middle East "roadmap". Will it be the P.Wolfowitz or the U.N. - way ? Is there a reasonable compromise, between these two plans, possible ?
POO and US$ are in the geo-political * balance *, here.

First things first : There are 20 billion euro in the UN-Iraqi, oil for food, account ! How "irrelevant" has the UN become for the US ?

B/B-press conference at noon. Will we get any indication ?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio#1010124/8/03; 07:58:56

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Cometosesilver#1010134/8/03; 08:33:27

Kitco Spot Silver up .09 a few minutes ago..... at 4.49
very intersting activity ......
I also noticed that NGAS was up late last night .19 ....and today there's no trace of that (pressure) anywhere....but there is a rumor also circulating about NGAS which is related to shortages which is also known to be the case with silver.

Some one is probably also , now buying all the known supply of coffee out of the warechouses as well.....good idea...
and perhaps sugar as well....Heard Larry Williams once cornered a section of the Sugar market....wars on a different front....NOT and demand imbalances...

TownCrierFederal Reserve adds 'permanent' reserves, outright purchase of U.S. Treasuries#1010144/8/03; 09:56:35

With the market in fed funds trading this morning on target with FOMC directives at 1.25 percent, the NY Trading Desk entered the open market on behalf of the Federal Reserve System to announce a coupon pass totalling $733 million for the purchase of dates between January 2005 and February 2006.

This injection of 'permanent' reserves to the nation's banking system was sterlized (at least for a day) with a concurrent open market operation in the form of an overnight reverse repurchase agreement (a financing instrument which is effectively a matched sale-purchace with respect to reserve adjustments) totalling $2.25 billion.

Yesterday, open market operations took the form of an addition of $3.25 billion through ten-day repos.

Note: before you waste your time visiting the linked Reuters article, please know in advance it is in error and basically worthless. (They must be downsizing their financial reporting department...)


TownCrierPeople buying now --and-- people buying later#1010154/8/03; 10:04:30

Today the WGC provided this indication of physical demand from India:

"Indian jewellers are reporting mixed activity. Some are still talking of postponing their buying in the expectation of a further price retreat, but others are reporting "hectic" buying, with demand expected to remain firm until the wedding season comes to an end in June."

Also, see the url above for weekly gold market recap.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...#1010164/8/03; 10:22:50

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

MK. Our business philosophy allows us to take a more laid-back approach. We don't employ a room full of brokers spinning the phones day and night. We don't have multi-million dollar advertising expenses dictating what kind of advice we give clients. This is all by choice. I decided long ago that I didn't want the headaches that go with managing a large number of brokers and the support staff and facilities required. At the same time, we get hundreds of requests each month for introductory information packets. We do not make cold calls. We do not work mailing lists. We do not call people at all hours of the day or night. We do not use marketing and sales gimmicks -- leaders, bait and switch, and the rest of it. We primarily work with clients who have discovered us, like what they see, and want to form a long term relationship with a reputable and reliable gold firm.

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

MK. Yes and no. In the short run, "yes." In the long run, "no." We probably lose a few prospects to the aggressive companies which use hard-sell tactics but we will not be changing our client-friendly approach. We know that not every prospective investor is going to become a client of USAGOLD / Centennial. However, we know that the client who chooses us is likely to be the type of client we are accustomed to doing business with. We work with a large number of professional people and business owners -- active, retired and semi-retired. In fact, we work with clientele that span the economic spectrum and all walks of life. Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to earlier. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

MK. Fundamentally, we believe that we are here to serve the client. Anyone who has done business with us will vouch for the courteous and professional service he or she has received. Our staff is carefully chosen and it shows. We get referrals on nearly a daily basis and are kept busy with strong repeat business. I would also like to call attention to the solid informational services offered at this website. We believe that any of our clients or visitors will find USAGOLD head and shoulders above anything else out there. I would encourage anyone attending this site to have a look around. We also publish a very good hard copy newsletter called News & Views: A Bi-monthly Review of Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Above and beyond that, the most important thing is the way we treat our clientele. From first inquiry through order fulfillment, we want to make the gold investing experience as pleasant and rewarding as possible. We have a large and satisfied clientele and that's the way we want to keep it.

Daniel DruffBonner#10101704/08/03; 10:36:22

*** The price of gold fell again yesterday...dipping down to $322. Gold buyers are getting discouraged, which is what happens in the early days of a bull market. Two years ago, an ounce of gold sold for only $255. Even at today's price, gold is still up nearly 30% from its low 2 years ago. Is the bull market in gold already over? We cannot say. But never in the history of the world has a paper currency outlived gold. Maybe this is a New Era...but not likely.

I couldn't have said it better myself.


skiSilver versus Gold market basics ....#10101804/08/03; 11:02:36

Several individuals, including myself, have stated our belief that SILVER WILL OUTPERFORM GOLD IN PERCENTAGE TERMS. I think that it is worth discussing exactly HOW WILL WE KNOW IF THIS IS ACTUALLY HAPPENING OR NOT?

The answer to this question will certainly not be "rocket science" but I do think that it is worth answering so that no one in the future will be able to say, "Why didn't you tell me?" or "Gee, I never knew that."


So, how will we know if silver is outperforming gold?

Good answer #1 .... On a WEEKLY, MONTHLY, or YEARLY basis, the spot POS of silver will make bigger percentage gains than the gains for gold. (Notice that I did not use the word DAILY)

Good answer #2 .... On a WEEKLY, MONTHLY, or YEARLY basis, the average silver mining stock price will make bigger percentage gains than the average gold mining stock.

Suitable answer #1 .... Spot silver prices and silver mining stocks will "break out" and "lead the way" after market periodic lulls or corrections. Gold will follow the lead but usually on relatively lower volume and with lower percentage gains as noted in spot and stock prices.

Occasional answer #1 .... While the two metals USUALLY act like they are "jointed at the hip", there may be weeks, months or other periods of time where only silver is advancing. During these periods, gold may be stalled OR going down in price. I call this the "Great Silver Disconnect". I fully expect THE DISCONNECT to appear from time to time during this bull market.

Occasional answer #2 .... During a Silver Disconnect period, we will also see a silver-gold psychological disconnect. Silver owners will be happy and gold owners will be un-happy or less-happy.

Occasional answer #3 .... Positive silver news will have a greater positive market impact than positive gold news.

After a while answer #1 .... Individuals, institutions, and mutual funds will buy more silver related investments in percentage terms than gold investments.

After a while answer #2 ... silver will slowly lose it's "poor stepsister" image relative to gold.

skiSilver versus Gold Market .... basics .... cont.#10101904/08/03; 11:30:10

.... my final thought

The central reason why I wrote about the ACTUAL MEASURMENT OF SILVER PRICE PERFORMANCE versus GOLD is so that the group here at the forum may be among the first to benefit and therefore be the MOST to benefit.

Jim Dines, "A way to make money in the stock market (or any market), is to find an area with explosive growth and mindboggling potential; then investing in it AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE."

Make no mistake, I love gold and think that it has a excellent future. However, from an investment point of view, I want to be riding the BEST and THE FASTEST horse in the race. For forum participants, at the very least, you may want to have a strategy of "betting on both horses" PARTICULARLY if you can see from my list if indicators in my previous post THAT SILVER IS PERFORMING BETTER THAN GOLD!

The Great Silver Price Disconnect has not yet happened (although it might have started this week), I hope many here will have the wherewithal to benefit.... We've worked too hard, waited too long and have certainly paid all of our psychological dues to qualify us for admission.

Buena Fe?#10102004/08/03; 11:48:23;jsessionid=0P1KF2O3CJMUICRBAE0CFEY?type=worldNews&storyID=2529191

what's to talk about? is gb a wc if there are no wmd found? who's going to prosecute?

Chirac, Annan to Join Russia-Germany Talks on Iraq
Tue April 8, 2003 11:39 AM ET
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Leaders of the main countries opposing the U.S.-led military campaign in Iraq will meet in Russia's second city of St Petersburg this weekend, the Kremlin said........

Daniel DruffCan you top this?#10102104/08/03; 11:53:27

The Two Worst Ideas of The Twentieth Century

Number 1...The Federal Reserve System

Number 2...and a very close second...The United Nations


ps to ge...the doji comment yesterday was intriguing, imo... But what are they? And what do they look like? TIA

mikalExcursions#10102204/08/03; 11:53:56

We're on our way, it's just that so few notice.
You may have had a feeling in your car:
Attention is focused. Equipment and guages- check. Doors, windows, mirrors and seat belts-check. Start engine. Brakes are off, shifter is in, vision ok?
You're watching for the unexpected defensively, and your speed.
Only then when you're well along and unimpeded, you detect your progress and breathe deeply with satisfaction.
Maybe, like a pilot taxiing down a runway, registers liftoff.

Daniel DruffBuena Fe#10102304/08/03; 12:06:36

wmd...I think that means, "Weapons of Mass Destruction"

As I recall, sector has predicted that if we didn't find any, we would "probably" plant the relax, gb is in good shape. [You really might focus on the very good bargins in the precious metals arena and enjoy the show.]

Best regards,

a nation of onejumper cable economics#10102404/08/03; 12:21:26

To kick-start a TV, it needs to be plugged in. To successfully jump-start a car, its alternator will have to
produce some electricity. To shock-start a dying person, his heart is going to have to beat a few beats. And
even then some TVs can't be kick started; some cars can't be jump started; the best dead people reach the
point where they won't come back to life again no matter how much you shock them. Kicks cause bruises.
Jump too hard, and you get sore. Too ample a shock kills a person. It's like this economy of ours. Is it
plugged in? Is its alternator producing electricity? Can ‘good times’ long ago be shocked into re-existence?
Or are the shocks, kicks, and jumps just making it deader? You can use a flat iron to press a shirt, but don't
try to fix a whiskey bottle with it. Open your eyes! This market economy is a dusty piece of worn out shoe
leather being shoved along the street by a thousand liars, flailed halfway to death already, jumper-cabled to
pieces, shocked to smithereens. What will remain? Mostly an unpleasant smell, an increasingly strong notion
on the part of wide awake people that the Federal Reserve should be hung from a limb, and gold's real value.

Daniel Druffa nation of one#10102504/08/03; 12:40:53

"...the Federal Reserve should be hung from a limb,..."

Some of our Founding Fathers would certainly agree with you.


a nation of oneTo Daniel Druff#10102604/08/03; 12:48:39

That's only fair, because I agree with some of them.
Daniel DruffFinally#10102704/08/03; 12:50:35

The Iraqi National Congress is about to exact retribution. [IMO, children should be shielded from this TV.]


a nation of oneTo Daniel Druff#10102804/08/03; 12:51:55

Daniel, I was wondering yesterday -after one of your messages- whether you considered that perhaps an important 401K function may have been to enable government control over private funds to some extent.
GonlyoldIRA's - Nix#10102904/08/03; 13:26:13

There has been much talk of investing gold in IRA's. I have no problem with investing in gold, but "investing" in IRA's is another thing. Concerning IRA's, whether gold funded or FRN funded, it is difficult for me to withold using the five letter "F" word, F---D. Government misrepresentation is surely applicable. Perhaps you people can either confirm or deny my thoughts on this subject.

The whole idea presented to me for getting into an IRA was/is that you defer paying taxes on part of your income when you're in a higher income bracket. Then, when you retire, you are supposedly to withdraw and live on a smaller amount of dollars and thereby pay taxes on a lower tax bracket.

Typically, most of us earn less money when we first start out in the employment arena and are therefore already in a lower tax bracket. Concidering inflation, it is doubtful that you will ever be able to return to that level of income to live on when you retire. Most likely you will need more to maintain a comfortable life style in your retired future than your past earnings of 40 or 50 years ago. I believe you will have to live lower than a pauper to gain any tax advantage.

I suppose you could make a case for averaging over the years, but I don't see that thie will eliminate all the dieparity of inflation. It still comes down to needing more to live per year at the end of your life than at the beginning, especially if you have health problems. I cannot believe that the government has not factored this in when they initiated this misrepresentation. And they didn't tell me about this factor.

Besides inflation, there's the problem of life's little mishaps, in which infusions of money will often remedy. Of course, I supose that there are people who have their lives so well organized that they never find themsleves in a financial pinch, but I don't know too many of those. So the chances of early withdrawal in your IRA's is to be expected.

And with early withdrawals, there's the ever waiting penalties. Those fair tokens of recompense levied on you for breaking your agreement and using your own money to help yourself out. And additional taxes because these withdrawals are added to your present income resulting in you being placed in an even higher tax bracket. Oh, the marvelous dealings of our leaders. I'm sure they didn't realize that you would ever be in financial straits when they concocked this plan.

So with the penalties and additional taxes involved with early withdrawal, before the age of 59 1/2, this ends up being a windfall profits for the government, actually the bankers. Again, I cannot believe that the government has not factored this in when they initiated their misrepresentation.

I suppose there are other aspects to the IRA f---d, like the sustainability (?) of the dollar, but I think you get the gist of my position. So yes, buy gold, even save your FRN's, but I wouldn't put them in an IRA account. How do they say, "Too soon old, too late smart".

Feel free to send rocks or roses.

a nation of oneReply to Gonlyold (04/08/03; 13:26:13MT - msg#: 101029)#10103004/08/03; 13:30:41

Your statement: "Perhaps you people can either confirm or deny my thoughts on this subject."

** I would confirm them.

a nation of oneTo Gonlyold (04/08/03; 13:26:13MT - msg#: 101029)#10103104/08/03; 14:12:00

".... And they didn't tell me about this factor...."

It has been a very long time since any government ever did anything that was not in some way in its own
interest. What causes this is that governments are made up of people. No person can ever do anything unless
there is some way in which he can perceive it is beneficial to himself. The federal government has no
interest in whether the citizens are rich or poor, except to the extent it effects the amounts those elected to
government can spend, whether they can remain in office and get re-elected, stay out of trouble with those
more powerful than themselves, or for some similar reason. There is no government supported private
investment item written in law, which does not enable or enhance -in some way and to some extent- the
government's ability to influence or control what private individuals do with their own money. No one in
government ever spends one second serving the real needs of the people and cannot. If they did, they would
be bringing you dinner, washing your car, cutting your grass; not sending someone to do it, but doing it
themselves. Instead, what they do is busy themselves in pursuit of their personal goals -which includes
giving away money out of the public treasury so they will become more popular- enjoying and improving
their privileges, and making sure they get re-elected. Some of them believe that they themselves are doing
good. These are the ones that are doing the most harm. Any financial program the government puts into
effect will be intended to have results conforming to these criteria. Some would say that this is a tragic and
depressing point of view. All I can say is that what is real endures, and that everything else is froth.

Just the very concept of government is itself already a corruption.

R PowellSilver#10103204/08/03; 14:12:44

Ski, it is good to hear from you again. I'll take your return as a good silver omen.

I know we have both read just about everything we could find on the silver market which included a great deal by Ted Butler. I can find no fault in his fundamental analysis, though I have tried, but I do not share his views of market manipulation based on the fact that there are more contracts (open interest) for silver than there is silver. I don't dispute this fact, I just don't think it is unusual, certainly not illegal. However, I don't think a market exists that doesn't experience influence or pressure from large players. Manipulation versus ordinary trading is an even thiner line than that between a good bartender and a crook.

The COT you mentioned (I'm looking at 4/01/03) shows the Commercials short, the Large Specs neutral and the Small Specs long. I have been very impressed with the holding power of the so-called Small Specs who, I believe, may have taken the long side based on the fundamental belief that, long term, POS will appreciate. These small guys have held firm during the last rise and its subsequent decline. Are these silver bugs waiting for the big move?

I'm not at all sure that the traditional definitions or distinction between Commercials and Large Speculative (non-commercials) players holds true in the silver market. I say this as I don't think the yearly silver consumption passes through the Comex. The registered and eligible numbers vary somewhat but the total Comex holding never does. I question whether there is very much true commercial hedging at all. Rather, I see both the Commercials and Large Specs as speculative trend followers trading strickly for paper profit. Also, I don't share Butler's view that the Commercials always profit at the expense of the specs but I can substantiate this view other than to say that situation is often (always?) too complicated to evaluate. Many of these positions exist, constantly being rolled over, just to cover sold options. There are an infinite number of strategies involving the holding of both long and short positions with both futures and options at the same time. Some are positionally designed to profit from a price move, some are intentionally neutral to profit from option selling, etc. The combinations are endless. The net is position impossible to decipher. This is also my rational for judging the warnings of outrageous "notional" derivatives numbers, supposedly implying an impending financial disaster as total nonsense.

As of the 4/01/03 COT report, both the Commercials and Large Specs are short (although the specs are barely so) with the small specs long. I'm most encouraged that these small players did not panic (sell out) during POS's decline. The Commercials are still net short 16,000 contracts while silver may have bottomed (up today!) so they will suffer now if POS rises which she may.

Eventually, supply and demand fundamentals will override all the chartist trend following, Elliot wave moves, Indian predictions and ignorant analysts but, like Morgan and Butler, I wonder if the complete depletion of the remaining existing supply will be necessary to awaken potential buyers to the situation. Hey, there has never been any shortage, I have never seen existing supply expressed as a percentage of yearly use (standard evaluation formula for commodities), and even the perception of a shortfall in supply is not even considered by those whose actions determine price so, why are we surprised that POS does not react logically? I think this is precisely why your percentage gains prediction for POS is correct. What other (potentially predictable) situation could set up the doubling, tripling or more of the price of anything?

When I think of physical buyers of silver, I wonder how they will not profit. I'm certainly hoping for the same with paper investments but beware, the Exchange will raise margins (not retroactive) and price moves will become stunningly extreme causing irrational price action. Who knows, the government could easily justify (do they even bother justifing anymore?) intervening, stealing legitimate gains. OR, we might be overlooking something, somewhere...there are those who claim that vast unknown supplies of silver still exist.... Thoughts???

Daniel Druffa nation of one#10103304/08/03; 15:01:19


a nation of one (04/08/03; 12:51:55MT - msg#: 101028)
To Daniel Druff

Daniel, I was wondering yesterday -after one of your messages- whether you considered that perhaps an important 401K function may have been to enable government control over private funds to some extent.

The idea of encouraging citizens to save for retirement - while supporting a bubble stock market - is fair play for a basically corrupt system. And IRA's, while sucking up funds, can provide emergency liquidity.

Please see: 21mabry (4/7/03; 14:50:20MT - msg#: 100979)
money to the masses
" about congress passing a law that lets the small fry investors like me, cash in our beaten up 401k with no taxes or penalties due."

Wish I'd thought of it. The President just might request that Congress waive the penalities for early liquidation. Can you imagine what that might do in the right environment to the gold penny stocks?


Mr GreshamRoach#10103404/08/03; 15:03:48

After his bout of introspection he concludes, very correctly: "Just because imbalances and excesses endure for longer than fundamentals suggest doesn't mean we have the fundamentals wrong. "

(Whether we have individually stayed solvent, in the Keynesian warning, while "markets" remained irrational, is another matter ;)

Roach sums up what we discuss here daily, i.e., the USD "medicine show" miracle. How does the world's biggest bunch of debtors in history get away with it?

The debtor who can't make his payments, on D-Day (Default) has several options:

(1) Die.
(2) Declare bankruptcy, with or without apology and contrition.
(3) Print more of the same green stuff the debt contracts are written in.
(4) Kill everyone else who gives him trouble about paying. (Watch out Repo Man!)
(5) Pull back between two oceans, draw the blinds, disconnect the phone, and don't open the mail! Oh... for about 20 years oughta do.

Probably some combination of all of the above. The longer this goes on, the more of them get added to the mix...

Daniel DruffI think we're on the same page#10103504/08/03; 15:51:48

Gonlyold (04/08/03; 13:26:13MT - msg#: 101029)
IRA's - Nix

The savings concept is perfect, imho, but all that red tape; not to mention the misunderstanding of what really is A Store of Value. Which happens to be one of the pillars of sound economics...a store of Value should not be dependent on man's word. [We lie once and awhile.]


a nation of oneTo: Daniel Druff (04/08/03; 15:01:19MT - msg#: 101033)#10103604/08/03; 15:55:59

21mabry said in msg#: 100979, " about congress passing a law that lets the small fry investors like me, cash in our beaten up 401k with no taxes or penalties due."

You replied, "Wish I'd thought of it. The President just might request that Congress waive the penalities for early liquidation. Can you imagine what that might do in the right environment to the gold penny stocks?"

** I don't think the government will ever do this. Those penalties were put in place to control that money. The taxes were applied because small investors are unable to get the government to do differently. Big investors sometimes *are* able to. It is in large part due to the money of big investors that office holders get elected, not the 'independent' votes, wishes, or assests of small investors, almost no matter how much they might want it to be otherwise.

eddiebhoygolds disapearance#10103704/08/03; 16:04:02

hello folks

just a short message to let you know that on the bbc's
business site that amazingly the price of gold is no longer
posted or worthy of comment what can this mean?

only last year they removed their stock markets values
postings box from the front news page to the the business
pages only (well after 2 years of downward spirals in the markets prices it was such a bind to the poor shareholders it really was the only thing to do in the circumstances
i mean poor henrieta was creastfallen about her losses)

is golds price range no longer worthy to appear to the
plebs that follow the business cycle?

is gold in the united kingdom really become something
that we should not talk about at dinner parties?

are we such poor dillusioned people that to save us from
further angst and depression that the only safe thing
to do was to stop us reading the true horror of the
price of our foolish and mad investment stategy


i dont know about you but as the beatles once sang
in the song penny lane.......... "VERY STRANGE"

and as aristotle says .......

buy as much as you possibly can with what worthless
paper you have left before its too late

goodness gracious me the horror of investing in gold

toodle pip chums

Aristotlesteady -- yesterday's comment for me (#: 100990)#10103804/08/03; 16:04:28

You said:
"at one point i thought i understood u and what you where saying. then came the property / money debate. and now u busted out with the thought that the dinar wont be very good for gold."

First things first.

How did you form the conclusion, "won't be very good for Gold," from my recent comments? As the author, I can assure you that I had the opposite effect in mind.

Would you humor me with another look and tell me where my message failed its audience? Thanks, champ. I'll give you the intro portion right here for your convenience.

= = = = =
(4/2/03; msg#: 100781)
Marketing slogan for the Moslem part of the world-- "The Gold Dinar: A Krugerrand to call our own."

Somebody was soliciting opinions about the Islamic Gold dinar a few days ago. That slogan suggestion pretty much sums up my opinion. It's basically a Krugerrand with a religious endorsement. Given the Moslem population base, that's a mighty endorsement -- not something to be taken lightly.
= = = = =

On the property thing, that's all pretty straightforward, isn't it? Maybe... *TOO* straightforward?? Everyone overthinks it and gets unnecessarily lost in a muddle.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Daniel Druffa nation of one#10103904/08/03; 16:17:59

** I don't think the government will ever do this. Those penalties were put in place to control that money.

These guys are very clever with legislation...if the Democrats refuse to go along, I must assume that 21mabry will not be voting for them...this year. AB532...why not a U. S. Congress AB533...great idea, because rules are made to be changed anyway.


CoBra(too)@ R. Powell - Nice to have R. Russel come to similar results -#10104004/08/03; 16:24:39

A Snippet from 321 Gold from Richard Russel -

Seems to add some credence to my musings yesterday.
"Gold, like diamonds and Picassos...
Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
April 9, 2003

Extracted from the 8 April 2003 issue of Richard Russell's Dow Theory Remarks

Gold -- Last Friday and again on Monday June gold closed lower. But each day gold opened lower and then closed near its high for the day. Today gold actually opened higher at 321.70, but as I'm writing this in the morning (Tues) I obviously don't know how gold will close today.

Also, although gold closed lower for five days in a row, neither XAU or HUI confirmed by breaking to new lows. In fact, XAU and HUI made their lows on March 27 -- nine trading day ago. My conclusion is that there's a good chance that gold is either at its low or that gold is in the process of bottoming.

Gold may bounce around and back-and-fill for a few weeks to even a month or so, but I believe we are now watching the bottoming process in action. The clincher for gold bulls would be HUI closing at 124 or better -- or June gold closing above 326.00.

About gold -- I've suggested that subscribers refrain from trading gold. I see gold as a long-term insurance holding. Keep trading gold, and in due time you'll trade yourself out of your position.

What I advise is that you take a position that you can "live with," and then sit tight with that position. Your position might be half coins and half gold stocks. My suggestion is that your gold position be 7% to 10% of your assets.

You don't trade your life insurance policy and you don't trade your house. Furthermore, it's probably a good thing that you don't price your insurance policy and you don't price your house every day or every week. They're simply assets that you hold. Your attitude towards gold should be the same.

Let me put it this way. A hundred years from now your house won't exist, the dollar won't exist, you won't exist, your portfolio won't exist, and who knows whether the world as we know it will exist. But gold will exist. Gold, like diamonds and Picassos, will still be money. I'll bet on that, and if I'm wrong I'll pay off our bet in the year 2103...

More follows for subscribers. . .

Richard Russell
Apr 9, 2003

steadyaristotle.#10104104/08/03; 17:03:10

we are on the same page! my mistake. oh wait... maybe i got the book open and am on page one sentance one and u are on the last page last sentance. both say the same thing. gold get u sum!
R PowellCoBra(too)#10104204/08/03; 17:45:25

Mr. Russell agrees......

Have you been sharing our thoughts with Mr. Russell again or did he come up with that on his own?

There aren't too many with a better long term record than Richard Russell and my technical analysis has been proven, by past performance, as sorely lacking in accuracy, so I'll gladly make a mental note of the HUI at 124 (currently 120.48) and the June gold at 326 (currently 323). In general, I'd like to see some bottoming POG action along with an upside move along with some basing and upside in the HUI to convince myself to go long again. I agree with your physical buying philosophy (especially the elegantly affordable and beautiful to behold silver) but I do have some speculative monies that also need managing.

Joe Kernan of CNBC fame was talking about company earnings this morning instead of the war. Are the equities markets returning to the normal bull versus bear battle with the usual financial considerations back in play? If so, imho many the POG positive forces will be re-entering the limelight again. Maybe this time they'll be prominent enough to steer some investment/safe-haven money our way. It's hard to argue with Hamilton's real negative interest return viewpoint and the numerous continuing stock market bear arguments. Onward! Let the war end and the financial games resume!! On a more sober note, may the gods grant us peace and much higher metals' prices.

Paper AvalancheOK, suppose you are Alan#10104304/08/03; 18:50:59

You are intelligent, well studied, and well aware of the precarious state of your paper "dollar" in the world today. In light of the introduction of the Euro, you have the following options available to you:

1. Hyper-inflate the US$ to avoid a Japan style deflation. If this should come to pass, then you risk becoming the 21st century's John Law.

2. Do nothing and allow the repatriation of offshore dollars, as the Euro becomes the preferred reserve currency of international trade, to effectively accomplish the inflation sought in option #1. Additionally, with options one and two, you risk the possibility that trading partners (Iraq - now referred to as state #51, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc.) who supply vital commodities (oil) decide not to conduct transactions in valueless paper.

3. You secure the oil reserves of your trading partners and do an end run around those (Euro faction) who seek to supplant the US$ as the world reseve currency. Simultaneoulsly with your country's effort to secure said oil assets you introduce a new currency that has the same gold "friendly" (not to be read as backing) characteristics as the Euro. The need for the Euro then becomes a matter of preference rather than demand.

If the new pink dollars are simply a new design to counter counterfeiting I would ask the following:

1. Why the rescheduling of the release of said new notes following the unexpected resistance of combatants in Iraq (originally scheduled to be rolled out on 3/27)? Such implies that the original plan was to secure Iraq's oil fields quickly and likewise do the same with the new Ameri/Euro notes?

2. Why did Paul Oneil say that the new dollars would be released at the prescribed date "but sooner if neccesary?" prior to his departure?

3. Why no image released for public consumption of said pink dollars if there did not exist new verbage on the new notes that commit to something other than the full faith and credit of the US?

Food for thought.


BTW, I am willing to make a bet with the first acceptor that a new US currency will be rolled out in the next 60 days. If I am wrong I will pay to the acceptor $100. If the acceptor is wrong they agree to send a check or money order to St. Jude's Children Hospital in Memphis, TN.

It's go time.

Daniel DruffChris Powell#10104404/08/03; 18:54:59

GATA might consider sending the appended link to Mr. Mulder(sp?) and any other analysts who think there is no official management of the markets.
Paper AvalancheQualification of previous post#10104504/08/03; 18:56:53

I just posted the following:

"If the acceptor is wrong they agree to send a check or money order to St. Jude's Children Hospital in Memphis, TN."

This should read:

"If the acceptor is wrong they agree to send a check or money order in the amount of $100 to St. Jude's Children Hospital in Memphis, TN."

I apologize for the change.

Thanks! PA

R PowellGood reading#10104604/08/03; 19:12:49

Here's a little piece of today's offering...

"Plain and simple, intervention into the markets, whether it's currency or any other type, is a normal practice of government. Pick up any of today's economic textbooks and you will find the virtues according to today's Keynesian or monetary school of thought throughout the entire economic textbook. The government is always intervening in the economy or the markets every year in an effort to affect economic and financial outcomes or influence the behavior of businesses or individuals. This is simply how our economy and financial markets work. Each year depending on where the economy rests, various policy initiatives are proposed in order to influence economic outcomes. During times of recession, the Fed lowers interest rates and expands credit in order to stimulate the economy. When the Fed intervenes into the financial markets and lowers interest rates, they influence the financial markets in both stocks and bonds. Lower interest rates make it more economical to borrow. Lower interest rates affect bond prices, the rates on commercial paper and the discounting mechanism used to measure and evaluate future earnings. To say the government does not intervene in the financial markets to affect financial and economic outcomes is strewn with error. There are too many examples on a regular basis that indicate otherwise."

silvercollectorMr. Gresham#10104704/08/03; 19:58:48

I like your message 100963, interesting concept. I think I'm developing a picture that I need to fully understand before I dive into head first.

A year or so ago my next door neighbor and I debated the virtues of selling our (identical) homes and 'moving up' into a nicer home. He borrowed the 50 grand and did it, I stayed at home. I can't see anymore upside to this real estate game. Interest rate hikes will stop this train in a heartbeat.

I want to take my 50 K and sink it into something that's going to inflate not something that HAS inflated. Yes, I can afford the interest payments. (some has already made it's way into golden leverage)

In 2002 I tried a little experiment. I borrowed 5k on the line of credit. When it got to 8k I sold out, after tax on gains and interest and blah, blah, blah I had about $1500 profit. It went straight into metal. Did I do the right thing, was it risky, was the leverage required????

My little rant over the last week that I think a few have noticed and a couple have commented on is finding the next bull run. I believe gold has a good shot. I am playing a prudent game, but I am looking to diverify into another safe haven, is there one?

I think food is undervalued. Hasn't the price of food been dirt cheap over the last few years. Cheap might be the wrong word, perhaps the 'price has been flat' is a better phrase. How does one buy food without buying physical food?
This thought goes back to my McHappy meal rant on the week-end. It's been 5 bucks (and possibly has fallen a touch) for a few years.

I love Ari's staunch comeback yesterday. I told him to get off his 'high horse'; he tells me to get off my 'low horse'. Don't you just love the guy!!! I will think of something crafty for the old badger!!

Have a golden day.

a nation of oneTo Daniel Druff (04/08/03; 16:17:59MT - msg#: 101039)#10104804/08/03; 19:59:06

"...great idea, because rules are made to be changed anyway."

*** To me that just proves they seldom get them right.

skiR. Powell .... on silver #10104904/08/03; 20:01:57

R. Powell, thanks for the lengthy comment and insight. Won't it be interesting when the COMEX traders finally lose control and the POS will finally be determined by supply and demand fundamentals? Some of the wise investors from the past have said that "When markets are at either extreme ... they do not operate on fundamentals." Like you, I have sifted, filtered, twisted, and investigated all of the silver arguments for a very long time and have yet to find even ONE serious flaw to a price explosion theory.

A couple of quotations come to mind...

1. R. Prechter "The truth is that making money in markets is normally difficult; in fact, for most people, it is impossible."

2. Author unknown, "Conventional wisdom has an incredible pull and consequently always has a profound impact on investmnet markets that directly correlate to it.... Markets make opinions." (In silver, the ingrained "Conventional Wisdom" is at odds with the facts.)

3. Jerome Smith "Truly outstanding investment opportunities occur only occasionally. In general, opportunities are normally long term in their maturation, and by careful study can be foreseen long before they come to the attention of most investors."

4. J. Dines "He who is first must always look wrong by definition."

Clink!When will it be gold's turn ?#10105004/08/03; 20:02:29

Wow ! Spot Platinum from $603 to $630 in the last 24 hours. Let's at least hope this a leading indicator !


21mabryNatural Gas#10105104/08/03; 20:12:57

Black Blade, I heard on news today natural gas supplies are at there lowest level since the late 1970s.They said its the lowest since the started using the present system of measuring it. Daniel Druff, I am so jaded by the system I have to force myself to go and vote.21
21mabry(No Subject)#10105204/08/03; 20:17:44

Silver collecter, I do things like that to.I will take 6 month no interest cash on credit cards,put it in a CD and take the profit at the end of 6 months.Its not alot but its enough for groceries for a week,plus its financial education.
Daniel Druff21mabry#10105304/08/03; 20:39:59

You got it!

21mabry (04/08/03; 20:17:44MT - msg#: 101052)
(No Subject)
"...I will take 6 month no interest cash on credit cards,put it in a CD and take the profit at the end of 6 months." 21mabry

You've found the system's fatal money (cough) should be put into precious metals...that is exactly what the establishment will do when we reach the end game. They will loan themselves millions and billions of dollars/yen/euro's/etc and buy you know what.


contrarianpaper avalanche, i think you're on the money#10105404/08/03; 20:57:34

Probably O'Neill was let go because he was too much of a talker, and the machinations now going on require secrecy. Many plans in making and Iraq is only part of the money picture as you describe. Seems to be all connected with this new money. Some sort of gold connection seems plausible, as preliminary designs aren't anywhere to be found. Don't you think the public would be informed in advance if this was simply a run-of-the-mill paper bill upgrade--as to what the new paper would look like, etc.?

Consequently I have to conclude something fishy's going on. Perhaps gold will be allowed free once the new paper is inaugurated? And those meetings with Greenspan and the White House show they're cooking up something I think beyond the usual machinations.

21mabryprices#10105504/08/03; 21:13:40

I have been looking through a refrence book of prices of things from 1880 until 2001.Someone said something about food prices. Some may find this hard to believe but according to this book alot of everyday common foods are cheaper now than in the 1970s, and I dont mean with figuring in inflation.An example off the top of my head was prices for round steak,it was pretty close to todays price of round steak when its on sale.It seemed alot of meats common cuts are pretty close in price,things like flour and rice was cheaper in some cases,I cant get specific,I dont have book with me. Appliances are cheaper today, a 19 inch tv was 179 dollars in the 70s even without inflation they are cheaper today. just some info for everyone.
mikal@Paper Avalanche, Contrarian#10105604/08/03; 21:19:51

Interesting posts. Read:
'The New Color of Money: Safer, Smarter, More Secure'
This site from our Bureau of Engraving and Printing is also slated to carry updates on this. I won't get too excited unless it's actually flameproofed with gold foil!

bugs21mabry#10105704/08/03; 22:02:00

While I don't have any hard stats to quote, the figures you are reading are probably right on. Farmers in the beef industry have signficantly increased output since the 70's vs cost, due to process efficiencies (automation), and advances in science (some say to the detriment). Electronics production is also significantly more optimised and built out. It's pretty amazing how far we've come in the CPU design/computer space over the past decade, and how much uncharted territory remains. But what do I know? not very much. I wonder.. is it possible to have significant technology advances without subsequent financial bubbles? maybe a dumb question..
Black BladeCobra(too) , 21 mabry, and all#10105804/08/03; 22:13:04

CoBra(too) ( msg#: 101040): The more I read Rich Russell's work the more I like it. Of course I have been a follower of "Dow Theory" as well to some extent. He explains exactly what I try to tell people. I listen to people moan and complain about how much they lost in the stock market and how poorly their 401K plans have performed. Then when I tell them about balancing their portfolios with precious metals (and basic preparation) they cringe and say something to the effect that gold has not done well or that it is for survivalist types, etc. I calmly explain that it is simply portfolio insurance just the same as life insurance, auto insurance, health insurance, liability insurance, etc. Then I tell them how precious metals smooth out the volatility of an investment portfolio. Then when I see them some time later they forgot everything I told them and give the same old tired arguments about gold as an investment and past performance (usually that it has fallen in price from that short blip at $850 an ounce). It is hard to break old habits I guess. Many just can't seem to shake the expectations of "bubble mania" investments. I have had some success with a few but most just can't seem make the connection.

21mabry ( msg#: 101051): A couple of weeks ago NatGas storage hit all time low levels. Last week there was a slight injection of 37 bcf due to mild temperatures. Still, drill rig counts are at low levels (782) and well below the working 1100+ drill rigs that were drilling NatGas a couple of years ago. Even then there was only a net gain of 2% NatGas production. A deepening economic recession and mild temperatures (warmest winter on record) led to a huge build up of NatGas supply. This last winter resulted in very strong demand. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your perspective) we are facing a possible energy crisis that will make the energy crisis of two years ago seem like a walk in the park. A normal summer with increased energy demand (air conditioner season) and a normal winter (heating season) threatens to increase energy costs significantly later this year. There are a number of reasons including lack of bank financing for drilling programs, not to mention credit downgrades requiring cutbacks in production and sales from storage to meet the new debt demands, restricted access to public lands, delayed permitting process (drill permits and pipeline construction permitting - right of way problems), limited pipeline capacity, lack of necessary infrastructure, shutdown of older "dirty" power plants (mostly old coal and oil fired power plants closed due to high costs associated with carbon credits under the "clean air act"), NIMBY, etc. Some industry people I have talked to are content to just "let the system fail" in order to "force the issue" at the legislative level. As I see it we are going to be very lucky to make it through next winter (especially if it is a cold winter).

All: What a long day it has been. I went to my CPA today and cut a check for Uncle Sam. It's that time of year again. I really need that cold Negra Modelo tonight!

- Black Blade

The Invisible HandQuestion # 4 for/by PA#10105904/08/03; 22:14:44

SNIP from this old article (05/15/2002) of the Atlanta Journal Constitution:
How color might prevent the next counterfeiting boom was something that no U.S. official would discuss. "It all depends on the combination of colors used," said Paul Marsch of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.
Canadians have been printing colored money for over 66 years, but counterfeiting there remains a problem. The color now used in Canadian notes does nothing against counterfeiting, said Marsch, "but the potential is there."
More indication that pink dollars linked to gold?

mikalUnparalleled Standard#10106004/08/03; 22:19:39

The Unparalleled Standard by Michael Wilson -Excerpts:
"Carefully hidden, guillotined gold sheets, coins, plates, and ingots have been many times in history the difference between life and death, war and peace, poverty and prosperity. To the bride in Calcutta, gold is the pith of independence and security in the midst of an uncertain marriage, a financial, economic, or natural disaster. Handcrafted 22 Karat bangles, necklaces, or 10 tola bars minted in Zurich and sometimes illegally smuggled in from Dubai, are handed down from generation to generation remaining unchanged for millennia. To the diligent African farmer, pure gold beads and baubles allow him or her to save in something other than the local currency, which in many an African country, has a history of crumbling with each new political assemblage. The European has always relied many times only on gold. The English having a defacto gold standard beginning in 1717 and a full legal standard from 1821. The French and their franc, the Portuguese and their escudo, the Dutch and their guilder. All originally some of the most powerful and globally accepted gold coins now turned paper. Those who were able to put away gold and silver coins during the German hyper inflation following World War I, came out ahead and maintained not only their purchasing power but the preservation of their wealth. In more modern times, it was the independent Japanese citizen who removed more than 64,000 ounces of gold from the world markets due to many unsuccessful attempts by the Japanese government to "re-inflate" it's economy. Gold is financial independence in the hands of any and all that realize and understand that 6,000 years of immutable credibility cannot be refuted by any measure we would care to even consider.
The historical precedent teaches us that every civilization in history that terminated it's gold or bimetallic system or standard (i.e. gold and silver backing), and allowed fiat money to become the basis of commerce, disintegrated over time just like the fibrous paper in circulation today. Usually only resuming the honest system after an economic catastrophe has occurred. Fiat "money" always depreciates into what it is essentially worth. Pesos, Dollars, Euros, and Yen might as well be sanitary toilettes, if they are only backed by the sheer human faith in the issuing government to remain honest.
There is much ingenuity, sweat, and capital that go into the production of this essential element. Wall Street financial advisors have foolishly claimed gold to be a "barbaric relic" from the past that has no future as a monetary store of value. Analysts have been widely known to sway investors away from gold and into paper assets paying them bigger commissions. Usually they claim that the latter classes of investments are at an all time low and they can only go up. People these days will say anything to get paid. Current ratios show that the U.S. stock market is no where near the bottom, yet investors continually pour in hoping for that rebound. Gold is a commodity that has been in a 20-year depression. It is an element that is essential to many facets of modern life and in many areas irreplaceable. Gold is currently facing an increasing supply/demand shortfall and is being artificially suppressed by entities that trade in more paper than Charmin. Based on these factors alone it would not be too far fetched to conclude that gold is heading toward an explosion in its market price if and when the derivative situation is halted.....
Gold is the oldest word in the English language still in continuous use today. The most referred to element in the bible. The most sought after commodity throughout history after food, shelter, and land was gold. If it were not for gold's existence, the daily items that we take for granted could not have been conceived.
It is with this sunny yellow metal that we are able to have computers, and dependable circuitry for electronic equipment. It is gold's superb reflectivity of infrared rays that allow us to have UV protected sunglasses, hand held lasers for surgical procedures, or solar energy panels that provide environmentally friendly electricity. It is due to gold's unchallenged malleability, ductility, and electrical conductivity that we are able to have microchips that get smaller and faster year by year. The same aforementioned properties make nano-technology a viable possibility. Non-heat dependent catalytic converters, controlled radiation dispersal through cancer-fighting implants, safety....."

Black BladeFed refining emergency rescue plan #10106104/08/03; 22:37:21


WASHINGTON--Confronting new fears of recession, the Federal Reserve is refining an emergency economic rescue plan that includes further interest rate cuts and billions of dollars in extra cash for the banking system. The Fed's effort would be aimed at pulling the country out of a nosedive that has seen 465,000 jobs evaporate in just the past two months, raising fears among economists that the weak recovery from the 2001 recession is in danger of stalling out altogether. ''Clearly, the Fed is in uncharted territory,'' said economist David Jones. ''I think they will try some experimental moves.''

One key element hasn't been used successfully in a half-century. Based on comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and other Fed officials, the central bank is expected to move beyond its traditional buying and selling of short-term Treasury securities held by banks to the direct purchase of longer-term securities in an effort to influence long-term interest rates.

Also, Fed officials have indicated they are prepared in the event of an unexpected shock to the system to lend massive amounts of money directly to commercial banks to make sure financial markets do not freeze up.

As a third policy option, Fed officials have indicated they would explicitly state that if the federal funds rate is moved below its current 1.25 percent, it probably will stay at the lower level as long as needed to get the economy on its feet--which would help investors' worries about a sudden jump in interest rates down the road.

Black Blade: Not really surprising. The US economy remains mired in a deepening recession-depression. The smooth talk is no longer being believed as consumers with shrinking bank accounts realize "the emperor wears no clothes". As workers see pink slips handed out more often and as they struggle to dig themselves out of under crushing debt they tend to view dubious government statistics with suspicion, as it does not match up with what they perceive as reality. The current secular bear market has wiped out the so-called "wealth effect" of the 1990's and consumers are like deer frozen in the headlights. It gets much worse from here. Don't be surprised to see the Fed try some unorthodox measures.

AnanseThe Middle Kingdom#10106204/08/03; 22:45:10

While in S. Korea about a month ago, I read the article linked above by William Pesek Jr. in the S. Korea Times. It was there titled: China's Fragile Economic Foundation which is, I think, a more apt title.

"Japan's bad-loan crisis gets all the headlines these days, but China's debt problems also are mounting and casting a shadow over its near-term role in the global economy. Rising non-performing loans could cause a credit crunch and undermine growth. And if Beijing doesn't act, it will face Japan-like financial woes. That's a problem because Chinese households lack the vast wealth of the Japanese."

"Outgoing Premier Zhu Rongji …call[ed]for the state to continue pumping massive resources into the economy. Otherwise, China won't grow at the annual 7 percent or more needed to maintain social stability."

"Zhu wants banks to focus lending on consumers, public-works projects and small businesses -- areas of the economy most likely to produce jobs in a nation with unemployment at a 22-year high." … "Bad loans are estimated to be 40 percent or more of gross domestic product."

China's debt problems also are mounting and casting a shadow over its near-term role in the global economy - China's stated goal is to be number 3 by 2020. Can they make it happen? If so, it will truly be a "great leap forward" within 40 years of opening to the West. China has already come a long way and it is certainly a player in the global economy. With your permission, I'd like to share some of my experiences and observations about China. I hope you find them interesting and thought-provoking.

Twenty-two years ago - 1980-81 - I was a "foreign expert" in a city in northeastern China. China was just emerging from the excesses of Maoism and the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution (GPCR). In late October, 1980, a colleague, my family and I flew to Hong Kong. There were no flights into China. From HK, we took a boat to Guangzhao where we were met by a government tourist guide and escorted to dinner and then to the train station where we boarded the train we would be on for the next three days as we journeyed to Beijing. At Beijing, our school's representatives met us and helped us buy appropriate clothing for the far north. Then we boarded another train for the last part of our journey.

As we settled in, we slowly discovered that everything was government owned and rationed - there wasn't enough of anything. Not heat, not food, not even bath water. Quality and quantity was strictly controlled; who you were determined what you got. Everyone - even foreigners - were given coupons for rice that specified the amount and the grade.

Heat was by coal and coal like everything else was rationed, so buildings were cold with the exception of hotels reserved for visitors’ use. Cold meant that when I spilled some of the "white tea" AKA hot water that I was sipping, it froze on contact with the floor. Transportation was by bus and bicycle; small horses pulling carts were common. Cars belonged to party cadres not individuals.

Part of our arrangement was that one third of our pay would be converted to dollars and sent home. The rest was paid in cash; the largest bill was a 10 yuan note. No one could understand why we needed to take some of China's desperately needed foreign reserves and send it to the USA when we weren't living there. (I don't think we ever did convey the concept of loan payments.) It was necessary for us to go to the bank and arrange this exchange and explain how to do it. When we walked into the bank, rows of clerks were sitting on high stools with ledgers, brushes, inkstones and abacus in front of them recording accounts. It was dark and dim in the bank and I felt like I'd entered Dickensonian England.

‘Things’ weren't so good but most of the people that we dealt with were.
They had suffered terribly during the GPCR, but everyone was working to rebuild their lives and country. In February of 1982, I walked across a field to board an old Russian airliner to fly from my city to Beijing where several days later, I was placed on a flight to HK. Changes were underway.

Fast forward to January, 2001, when I had the opportunity to spend about a week in China. I spent most of the time in Shanghai with a brief jaunt to Shenyang. High rise office buildings were everywhere - some unoccupied, I think - with bright lights left on all night; freeways - rather than rail - had been built to transport people to the center of the cities from the vast new airports filled with duty free shops staffed by young ladies waiting to help the occasional customer. In Shenyang, my escort and I were taken to dinner in a local hot spot - a restaurant specializing in Ching Dynasty cuisine. Shortly after we were seated, the table had so many dishes on it that some went untouched.

China has set a rapid pace to achieve its place in the sun making no secret of its goal to replace the USA as the world's superpower - complete with having Chinese replace English as lingua franca. My concern is that China's drive to achieve preeminence so quickly will backfire because it is failing to build up the necessary infrastructure - a sound banking system being one of those things. (MK has mentioned his concerns about this several times) From the article above, it sounds as if China is following on the heels of Japan and the US.

Pesek ends with, "Lost in the hype and excitement about China's boom is its fragile financial system. The blame for that goes to the same people congratulating themselves in Beijing right now. If they don't act soon, they could have a crisis on their hands."




April 8, 2003 -- TO Wall Street, corporate and Washington fat cats:

With the war in Iraq going well and the stock market responding as we all expected with a very nice rally, you might have a good feeling about Wall Street getting its bull back. Uh, uh!

Investors may be cheering developments in Iraq, but the bull is still chopped meat unless you guys finally decide to give in to investors' demands for some fundamental and extensive changes in the way you do business.

Black Blade: An "interesting" and "entertaining" read on the stock market by Crudele. It should probably be titled "How Wall Street Really Works".

slingshotPaper Avalanche Msg#101043#1010644/9/03; 00:09:03

Acceptor on condition

I find your challenge very enticing. Yes, I have made a copy of your post. I have read Mikal's post Msg# 101056 with the Link WWW. which stated the release of the colored money to be in the fall. This may have put you at a disadvantage. I do not remember at any point a monentary bet being made at USAGOLD. So with the tradition that one Knight can not profit from anothers Knights disadvantage, I will donate $100 US to St Jude's Children's Hospital in Memphis,Tenn. if you do the same. Thereby making this a simple Gentlemen's bet. Please confirm.

Black BladeAsian Markets Tank#1010654/9/03; 00:37:03

Asian markets tumble into negative territory and Euro markets start off in the red.

- Black Blade

Aristotleski, ski, ski... What the heckski? (#: 101049)#1010664/9/03; 03:28:31

You said, "Won't it be interesting when the COMEX traders finally lose control and the POS will finally be determined by supply and demand fundamentals?"

You do realize, don't you, that the price of silver coming out of New York is currently determined by the supply and demand for those standard COMEX futures contracts? Do you not currently accept the premise that that market pairs one unit of buying interest with one unit of selling interest, and vice versa? How much more perfectly "fundamental" can the market get than that?

Or *or* OR... if we bend this around to the parallel problem that I strive to explain with the Gold market, (being funked up by a legacy of monetary usage,) are you willing to join me in saying that we can't fairly build a pricing market on a market-maker's instrument that has a limitless amount of paper substitutes which serve the supply side of the fundamental supply/demand equation, and that is furthermore susceptible to asymetric/elastic rules of contract enforcement?

Soooooo,,, if you want a return to REALLY meaningful supply/demand fundamentals, my friend, then the good choice ahead of us is a cash-on-the-barrelhead sorta physical-metal-only market to serve the purposes of price discovery. But here I'm talkin' Gold -- in a unique role as "an important element" among global financial reserves such as this age doesn't know in true form. On the other hand, the dominant industrial use for silver will likely drive hedging practices as with other common commodities, carrying always our now familiar asymetric pricing effects.

Again, as things currently stand, an endless printable supply of paper contracts coupled with gullible (and skeptical) demand of those same contracts are the two halves of the supply/demand fundamentals that are being used for pricing our real metals in New York. Laughable, I know, yet that scene is partially how and why Gold (silver) can and is bargain-priced like an abundant item, and will remain so for only as long as 1) significant investor buying pressure is diverted into paper substitutes, along with adequate distress selling to meet remaining physical demand; and above all, only as long as 2) the illusory paperGold practices are tolerated/supported by central banks.

Fortunately for Gold advocates like me who would like to see an avenue (such as doesn't currently exist) for perfection in a vehicle for sound and honest savings, the Eurosystem is by subtle appearances leaning against the old dollarsystem tolerance/endorsement of paperGold. Free Gold, baby, Free Gold. When the chains come off, to da mooooooon.....

Gold. Get you some perfect savings. --- Aristotle

Black BladeStrange Pre-Market Action (Again)#1010674/9/03; 04:31:00

Right on schedule a deluge of market index futures buying emerged at 6 am (est) raising sharply lowered US market index futures to nearly break even. The dollar rebounded off the lows and gold came off a solid performance in overnight trade. Hmmm...

The war is over! A rumor going around this morning is that Saddam and youngest son Qusay were wounded in the most recent bomb attack and were evacuated to Tikrit and then to Mosul where loyalists are attempting to eventually take them to Syria for medical attention. Oldest son Uday was rumored to have been killed. How reliable this rumor is I don't know, but I suspect that this will be an excuse for the sudden rebound in the markets.

- Black Blade

Paper Avalanche@ slingshot#1010684/9/03; 05:25:39

You are on! Sixty days from yesterday is June 7th. I hope that we are not infringing on the forum rules in this attempt to make my predictions "interesting." In any event, it will benefit a terrific cause.

You are the first acceptor to my challenge. I will only make one gentleman's wager regarding this prediction. No other acceptors please. A hundred clams is my limit.

Let the games begin!

Paper Avalanche

TopazThank-you USAGold-CPM.#1010694/9/03; 06:13:43

...and Staff. My FIRST Napoleon arrived today and I AM impressed...with the Coin, Packaging, Delivery and overall commitment to quality service your Firm continues to provide to Gold and it's desciples.

Topaz@PA et currency.#1010704/9/03; 06:44:10

What an excellent pre-emptive strategy eh? New money (Notes) embedded with a Gold filament @ a face-value/Gold ratio of (say) $200K/Oz. Makes FoA's $30K look timid...Nah!
HenriAristotle Msg 100954#1010714/9/03; 07:28:57

I really liked your comment

"...As a rule, from the deepest darkest roots of the mountain you emerge the same way you climb to its summit -- one step at a time. But then again, if you don't know where you're going, *any* path will take you there. So have a care."

A group of my younger scouts recently got lost in the woods while playing a game where they were not supposed to leave the roads. They had with them maps and compasses because they were "prepared" :-).

As it turned out once they were lost they could not answer the simple question "Where do you belong?" None of them knew the name of the cabin or even the name of the large Scout Camp where we were staying. Turned out there were several large encampments associated with the scouts in the same area and when they asked directions to the "scout camp", they were sent in good faith in various and often conflicting directions by local residents who all knew where the nearest camp was.

Somewhere in here there is a great lesson in life. The root cause of their trial was that they never thought it important to know where they started and so when they were separated from it, they did not know how to return and no one could help them. All the maps and compasses in the world will not help you find your way "Home" if you don't know where "home" is!

For mankind, I am convinced that "Home" is where we began. A place we departed long ago when all was provided for us because we were not separated from it. There we did not need gold or money to live a full life. Why do we feel we need such things now? Perhaps this is the greatest challenge life has to offer. Having come this far, how do we ever get home?

ski(No Subject)#1010724/9/03; 08:19:57

Aristotle ... Do you own any meaningful silver investments?

Yes _______ No________

a nation of oneHenri (4/9/03; 07:28:57MT - msg#: 101071)#1010734/9/03; 09:03:19

What a great story. It is has all the elements of a truly valuable lesson and is entertaining to boot.
21mabrysilver#1010744/9/03; 09:05:20

Everybody seems to be talking silver. Silver was my first foray into pm. I have gotten into gold since then, but I still own my silver. This may not be educated reason, but I always assumed it would be much easier for silver to double in value than for gold to. This was long before I knew about this forum or Ted butler or anything. I just thought silver could double to 10 dollars and common people could still afford to buy and invest in it. I know this is a gold board but silver was for me like that first girl you loved, she is always special in some way.
Aristotleski -- "meaningful silver investment"#1010754/9/03; 09:19:26

The rascally part of me wants to answer, "There is no such thing."

But that's not completely fair, is it? There are some excellent pieces by Paul Revere and Hester Bateman that would *serve* anyone very well.

"Tea, anyone?"

Henri, great post, thanks!!! Worth serving up on Old Sheffield plate.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

mikalRe: Silver#1010764/9/03; 09:47:30

Re: "Free gold. Free gold. When the chains come off, to da moooooon."
a nation of oneIn chasms wide and chasms deep, the dragons all their treasures keep....#1010774/9/03; 09:53:36

Here is a story about gold I heard some time ago.

A man went on a journey and had to pass through a wilderness. While there he ventured upon a dragon. It
was fierce, and its fire scorched him. They fought, but the man was defeated and barely escaped.

As he was recovering his strength he saw the dragon go into a cave, and when he was ready he went in after
it. There were stashes and piles of gold glittering in the dim light, more gold than the man had ever
imagined. But the dragon saw him and they fought again and the man lost and almost didn't get out alive. He
vowed to return one day and kill the dragon and get the gold.

He completed his journey and for many years merely went on with his daily life, doing his work as well as he
could, and living as wisely as he knew how, thinking toward the day when he would return and get the
dragon's gold.

A decade passed. Then two. And three. And soon the man was entering middle life. He knew that his chance
would pass if he did not go and get the treasure soon. He was not at all sure that he could do it. But he
prepared. He shored up his courage, gathered provisions, resolved his will. When he went off into the
wilderness again he knew only that he wanted to succeed. He had no idea whether he would win or not.

The land had changed. It no longer looked the way it had. But he searched, and in a little while he found the

What he had not realized was that nothing stays the same. In performing his own work day-to-day, his
abilities had improved, his wisdom had grown, he had acquired more strength, his knowledge of the material
world had increased. And therefore when he came upon the treasure again, the dragon was no match for him.
Also, the dragon had aged. The man killed him easily, and the treasure was his.

mikalGold and silver will outperform...#1010784/9/03; 10:03:58

most any other investment vehicle.
George Cooper believes silver has a special relationship to gold. Posters like Ski would contend that there are many.
I agree, especially having seen the intransigence of analysts and media ignoring silver. Stemming from the grave threat posed to stock brokers and other investment pimps, Ag to them, holds risk of enduring stigmatism and disrepute. The downtrodden pale sister deserves better treatment but will one day surprise her detractors.

ZhishengBoth up today.#1010794/9/03; 10:09:10

Interesting that the dollar is marginally up on the day, and gold up as well. In the pressure cooker, the steam builds up: do I detect a stress line appearing on the clamped down lid?
Mr Gresham"Baghdad Falls"#1010804/9/03; 10:13:58

Boy, if there was ever a time to buy the news (after selling the rumor -- of war -- oh, you didn't?) it is now. (Or is it "sell the news, buy the rumor"?) All confused now...

Why do they make it so easy? And why can't I read it when it's happening? Disengaging from emotion? Gotta try it someday. Hmmmmm... emotions are EXPENSIVE!

ToasterLast great buying opportunity in gold#1010814/9/03; 10:40:31

Very interesting column by Raymond Nize on gold at

It puts the current gold slide in perspective.

a nation of oneTo Mr Gresham (4/9/03; 10:13:58MT - msg#: 101080)#1010824/9/03; 10:53:10

It's "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news," like, last November, when nobody knows if the war is going to be real, or whether it's going to be beneficial, buy stocks because other people are going to buy them if the war really starts, and because, if it doesn't start, you probably won't lose anything. Then, in April, when the war is news, sell, because it won't be long before they realize they won't make a profit, and then they too will sell. That way you get in before it goes up, and out before it goes down.
a nation of oneTo Mr Gresham (4/9/03; 10:13:58MT - msg#: 101080) again#1010834/9/03; 10:54:46

Oh, and if you will read forums like this one, you will know as it happens.
Daniel DruffNorth Korea#1010844/9/03; 11:00:32

From what I understand, North Korea is not a nice place to visit and is lacking in the basic freedoms guaranteed by most countries in the world. They don't even have a Kentucky Fried Chicken.

I sincerely hope that the United States of America finishes The Korean War...or was it a "conflict"? Some fancy political talk now and then is a good idea but if we are to move forward economically, using gold as the world's store of value - or dare we call it "currency"? - the people of Korea must be set free.

The Bible only allows slavery for 7 years, as I understand it, so we have the authority to proceed.

Finally, free people in Iraq with gold in hand are in very good shape at the moment, economically speaking.


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21mabry(No Subject)#1010864/9/03; 11:10:51

Baghdad liberated, markets down,gold up, is it the war or is it the economy with the problems still there that investors are watching.
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a nation of one21mabry#1010884/9/03; 11:30:08

It may be the average investor is smarter than people think that he is.
CometoseHUI#10108904/09/03; 12:35:13

HUI up 4.25 .....
Very happy war near over
now can resume activities without interruption or distraction....

There's something out there ..... ON THE WING...

DOW should be having a party ......what matter....
a little maalox .....perhaps will get you over your hump..Wednesday hump.....even though there be many bumps
coming called very high elevation turbulence....

HAVE BIG PARTY , tomorrow...feel all better!!!

21mabry(No Subject)#10109004/09/03; 13:02:13

I have heard many austrian economist say there is little inflation in a monetary system based on gold.I hope I understood them correctly.OK here is what I would like them to answer.Spain during the 16th and 17th centuries had huge amounts of gold and silver coming into the country from the new world,inflation became rampant and spread out to the rest of europe,is this like todays world when the fed injects billions of paper into our economy. I dont know it seems like a similiar situation.I know this question is answerable by members of this forum. To me its to large a supply of money in this case precious metals causing inflation. 21
Magister AureliusSpanish inflation#10109104/09/03; 13:25:31

21mabry, Spain had a couple of other problems due to the influx of gold and silver that were more of a cause to the inflation than the gold itself. One, the enormous influx of physical riches did cause some inflation as it increased the supply of the metal. However, the effects of this influx were to diminish the merchant classes. Nobles in Spain and the government did not back business ventures as in other European capitals, in fact merchants were generally despised for actually "working" for a living. Two, the gold was mined for the royal establishment, private ventures didn't receive capital from this.. except pirates. If Spain had warehoused the gold and didn't spend frivolously on near constant warfare for 50 odd years with England, the Netherlands and in Germany, much of the rampant inflation wouldn't have happened as they would have had to grow their economy in order to support increased government spending.
Daniel Druff21mabry#10109204/09/03; 13:39:11

"To me its to large a supply of money in this case precious metals causing inflation." 21mabry

Over time, gold is produced at a 2% yearly increase...I read that fact somewhere. And the world's population increases at a rate of 2% a year or so. Every now-and-then we get spikes and dips in both areas but over all, imo, gold as money is the foundation for a perfectly designed system .


RobotGuyJust nice to see - - - Amidst the cheerleaders#10109304/09/03; 14:14:43


"Longer term, the outlook for gold is favorable because the Federal Reserve is desperately pumping cash into the banking system in an effort to stave off recession and deflation. This policy has already weakened the dollar, and will continue to do so. As the dollar softens against other currencies, global investors who doubt the inflation-fighting resolve of the U.S. government will shift a portion of their assets into gold."

<end snippit/>

Cheers to my like minded fellows!
It's nice to see some reality mixed with the hype.

Your friendly neighborhood RobotGuy.

Buena Fethe war now moves from the battlefield to the political arena#10109404/09/03; 14:50:02

Spotlight shifts to Iraq's weapons.

As the regime in Baghdad crumbles, the spotlight is turning once again to the search for Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction - on whose existence Washington based its case for an invasion.........

........Mr Blair and Mr ElBaradei's stress on external verification of suspect weaponry found is being seen as tacit acknowledgement that some observers believe coalition forces could be tempted to fabricate such "evidence", if finding banned weapons proves elusive.........


russia, germany, france, annan meeting in st. petersberg this weekend ... one of the uk labour mp's calls blair a "war criminal" ... is empire-8 about to retaliate and undermine the $ and washington? ... gold should dance like it did 25+ years ago.

rare goldNotable Quote#10109504/09/03; 15:01:31

When your memories exceed your dreams your life is over.

I'm happy for the Iraq-i people today. Freedom is a great privilege and paid with a great price. Had it been up to the French, Germans, Russians and others the Iraq-i people would still be under the thumb of that fierce dictator.



R PowellRussell's indicators ///// poor dragon!#10109604/09/03; 15:03:32

Just yesterday CoBra(too) was kind enough to point out Richard Russell's bullishness toward gold once the HUI closed higher than 124 and the POG for June closed higher than 326. The virtue of patience is a necessity for investment traders but only a little was needed this time.

Today's closes
June gold $326.20
HUI 125.36

So, as I understand this, we now have the sage's blessings to go long. For physical buyers who place any credence to these mysterious predictions, low prices may be subject to a time limitation. If POG is bottoming on good war news, according to my understanding of human nature, today's news may be the best of the war. It's probably downhill from here with time not on our side. The stock market may have confirmed this theory today. Thoughts?

A nation of one.... I was cheering for the dragon.

Magister AureliusFascinating article#10109704/09/03; 15:20:09

Anyone read J. R. Nyquist's article today on Financial Sense Online? Get you some gold soon, cause the guys backing the axis of Evil sure are. It's a fascinating article... makes you think twice about who you can trust that is for certain.
Aristotlemabry, Druff -- Gold doesn't stop monetary inflation, but it CAN protect you from it#10109804/09/03; 15:28:13

The magic (accounting and allocation effeciency) of our modern banking system allows for inflationary expansion of the circulating money supply REGARDLESS of the type of limited monetary reserve base. You can start with 100% Gold coinage, and in no time at all you'll find a greatly expanded money supply primarily in the form of digital bank entries for checking and savings accounts.

Can't you see how the genie gets out of the Gold bottle easily and permanently? So why must you complicate matters for yourself (and everyone else) with Gold Standard musings? What is so repellent in your own minds about the simple concept of Gold as property -- the kind of perfect, floating high-value "real estate" that everyone wants?

I really wanna know what's influencing your thinking, so thanks kindly in advance for patiently sharing your viewpoint.

Gold. Get you some pristine lots. --- Aristotle

Buena Ferare gold (04/09/03; 15:01:31MT - msg#: 101095)#10109904/09/03; 15:32:48

i am not wise enough to know if the iraqi people will be better off

i try not to assume anything that i can't observe/experience up close

i have observed/experienced gold, imo it is freedom, we agree?

Black BladeGold Trending Higher in After Hours#10110004/09/03; 15:38:03

Gold is gaining a bit in after hours trade. Wall Street was stunned today as the DOW, Nasdaq, and S&P node dived on victory in Iraq. The pinheads and bubbleheads on the stock infomercial channel are quite bummed as stocks tanked, gold and petroleum gained. They just don't understand that now the war is over investors are looking at the "unimportant" stuff like, oh I don't know…..earnings maybe?! How about the weak dollar or grim economic outlook? I am amazed as these buffoons question the fall in equities today. Without the sideshow of Iraq and all the drivel about "war premiums" and "second half recoveries" they are now forced to look at the hard cold facts in the economic data.

Physical demand is underpinning the gold price and the demand continues to grow (especially in Asia). It is the peak of "Wedding Season" now and no Indian family would ever think of marriage with gifts of gold. Chinese demand is strong and the central banks of China and Russia are rumored to be accumulating greater quantities. Many expected the oil price to fall as victory in Iraq was certain. However, oil inventories (according to the API and EIA) fell today when they were expected to rise. It is also apparent that the oil fields and infrastructure in Iraq are in pitiful condition and will take years to repair. OPEC is also meeting to cut back production. The higher energy costs will continue to put pressure on the struggling global economy.

Iraqis were in the streets celebrating today and there was some looting of government offices and businesses owned by the ruling class. I guess after several decades of a dictatorship living off of the enslavement of the population some over exuberant reaction should be expected. It was not much different than say Los Angeles on occasion or a Brit hooligan celebration after a soccer match. Hey, maybe the Iraqis just wanted to make the coalition forces feel at home (sorry – bad joke).

Hopefully the liberated Iraqis can make the best of their new found freedom. Never having the chance to rule themselves in the past I wish them luck. Meanwhile Iraqi ambassador to the UN says "it's game over" in referring to the end of the war. Now there are questions to be resolved: Where's Saddam? Where's our POWs? How will Iraq be rebuilt and when will services restored?

Now that the war is effectively over Wall Street and investors can focus grim economic data, earning reports that start to come out this week, rising unemployment, rising debt (and current account deficit) and the weakening U.S. dollar.

"Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

Black BladeStates Ask For 'Volunteer' Taxes#10110104/09/03; 15:57:08


(AP) State lawmakers across the nation have come up with an unusual alternative to raising taxes for their cash-strapped states: "Tax Me More" funds that rely on donations from taxpayers.

Black Blade: Yeah right, that's gonna work.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Attention USAGOLD-CPM, Inc. valued clientele and visitors!#10110204/09/03; 16:16:05

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skiSilver .... 21Mabray#10110304/09/03; 16:23:12

21 Mabray #101074 You said, "I always assumed it would bmuch easier for silver to double in value than for gold to ...."

I am very much in agreement with this simple, logical,concise and factual conclusion. Well done!!

In the dark of night, I often steer my investment boat by a series of simple yet indisputable facts such as the above. Additionally, the fact that silver can more easily double than gold is just one of many items on my "list of evidence" that shout .... "Silver will do better than gold in % terms!"

21Mabray .... you also added .... "I just THOUGHT silver could double...." Again, well done!! People seldom think for themselves. For heaven sake, don't belittle what you have accomplished by thinking by yourself. It's a wonderful thing and a path well worth taking.

21mabryAristotle#10110404/09/03; 16:34:45

Really I am just trying to learn as I go. i think of gold and silver as a lasting store of wealth, when you want wealth to last from generation to generation precious metals are the answer. I just like thinking outloud and listening to people who have studied these concepts keep me on the right track. Ski thnx for compliment 21
Paper Avalanche@ Ari#10110504/09/03; 17:05:16

Quick question:

Is silver property?

Eagerly awaiting your response.


a nation of oneTo R Powell (04/09/03; 15:03:32MT - msg#: 101096)#10110604/09/03; 18:14:42

"A nation of one.... I was cheering for the dragon."

*** I can understand this, being a dragon myself.

CytekIsrael eyes Iraqi oil#10110704/09/03; 20:16:22

By Simon Wilson in Jerusalem

An Israeli minister says he wants to reopen a pipeline which has been closed for more than fifty years to bring Iraqi oil through Jordan to Israel's Mediterranean coast.
A spokesman for the infrastructure minister, Joseph Paritzky, said the move would cut fuel costs in Israel and help regenerate the port city of Haifa.

There has been no official comment yet from Jordan, but any suggestion that Israel might benefit from the fall of Saddam Hussein is likely to enrage many people in Arab countries.

The pipeline was built after Britain took control of Iraq, Jordan and what was then British mandate Palestine after the First World War.

The section from Iraq to Jordan is still functioning, but the route from Jordan to the port of Haifa, which is now in Israel, was cut in 1948 when the British pulled out.


The Israeli infrastructure ministry says reopening the pipeline would give easy access to Iraqi oil, cut fuel costs in Israel and help regenerate Haifa which has suffered badly in Israel's economic recession.

At the moment this appears to be a personal initiative by the infrastructure minister who is from the secular Shinui Party, rather than any official policy of Ariel Sharon's coalition government.

In any case, Jordan may find it difficult to align itself publicly with a project which would cause outrage in much of the Arab world.

silvercollectorToaster#10110804/09/03; 21:00:23


Thanks Toaster.

silvercollectorslingshot, PA#10110904/09/03; 21:17:58

I stand to be corrected but I recall MK and either Cobra or Cavan Man wagering a "gentleman's bet" of a US dollar on an element involving golfing.

If it is of any relevance I cannot see the harm in a mutally agreed "gentleman's bet" (donated to charity) to settle your debate.

However, the agreed upon wager might be pushing the limits. It would be a little stressful, for example, to watch Ski & Ari wager into a "gentleman's bet", in the form of a donation of course, in the amount of $1,000,000 Euro on which gold or silver outpaces the other in 2003.

I hope Ari has a fine collection of sterling!


AristotlePaper Avalance, my response:#10111004/09/03; 21:35:21

Silver's tangible, of course it's property... something like a dark lumpy condemned building on the wrong side of the tracks in a floodplain amid a superfund site in an avalanche runout zone at the base of an active volcano. Sure, you might be able to eke something outta it, but why be a slumlord when more attractive opportunities are available?

At the root of it I suppose some people are simply predisposed to be dreamers while others are inclined to be builders. I'll bet if we took a survey we'd find that the powerball lottery is regularly played by a higer percentage of silver owners than by Gold owners. Dreamers versus builders. Wellllll.... if that's their source of happiness in life, then I say, "what the heck, let 'em dream!!"

For the builders among us, the choice is different.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Buena Feupdate from earlier#10111104/09/03; 21:35:45

Iraq's weapons 'must be found'

The US defence secretary has said that finding any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq is still a major concern.
Asked at a news conference whether the rationale behind the war required that such banned weapons be found, Donald Rumsfeld said he did not "quite get the thrust of the question", but agreed that "it obviously is important to find them". ...............

.........Blix's doubts

In an interview with Spanish daily El Pais, chief UN weapons inspector Hans Blix hinted he believed Iraq's contended possession of weapons of mass destruction had served as a pretext for a US-led invasion.

"There is evidence this war was planned well in advance," he said.

"You ask yourself a lot of questions when you see the things they [the US] did to try and demonstrate that the Iraqis had nuclear weapons, like the fake contract with Niger," he said.

He was referring to the discovery by UN inspectors that documents the US alleged proved Iraq had tried to buy uranium from the African state had been forged............

was this whole thing a set-up? (washington took the hook) intermission over, the real war euro vs $ will now resume, in the open!

gold IS ABOUT TO soar! imo

Yellow MetalMagister Aurelius msg#: 101097#10111204/09/03; 21:39:59

"Get you some gold soon, cause the guys backing the axis of Evil sure are"

I think you are absolutely correct in that.
Unconventional thinking (contrarian . . non conformist ?) finds it's adherents in many cicles of men and I'm sure that the "Axis of .... ' or whomever are probably thinking as unconventionally as anyone on this continent. They probably don't make their investment decisions based on CNN if that's a hint.
So yes, we may be in with some strange bedfellows.
Interesting to read Nyquist quoting Machiavelli . .


Totalitarian functionaries tell lies because that is the way they operate, by habit and by principle. "Men are so simple," wrote Machiavelli in The Prince, "and so much the creatures of circumstance, that the deceiver will always find someone ready to be deceived."

end of snip

Of course he has a very particular point of view. If the people he discusses in his article are hoping for the same sort of result vis a vis gold as we are here at the forum then does that mean with our allied interest we may have a common threat ?

Buena Fe?#10111304/09/03; 21:42:06

Putin, Blair discuss war in Iraq over phone
10.04.2003 [02:51]

Russian President Vladimir Putin and British Prime Minister Tony Blair exchanged opinions on the war in Iraq in a telephone conversation on Wednesday, Putin's press service told Interfax.

During the phone call, which took place at Britain's initiative, Blair told Putin about the main results of the latest British-U.S. summit in Belfast.

The Russian president, for his part, informed the British prime minister about an April 12 workshop entitled "Peace, Security and International Law: a Look into the Future, which will be attended by prominent international law experts from around the world. The leaders of Russia, France and Germany are expected to be present at the opening ceremony.

The parties also discussed upcoming bilateral contacts, the press service said.
russia has insisted that this war contravened international law ........ now a workshop, has a noose been erected? call me crazy, but i smell a wicked brew.

mikal@Aristotle#10111404/09/03; 22:01:31

Re: "dark, lumpy, condemned" Is that any way to speak of gold's "significant other", time-honored consort and inseparable partner?
Besides, it's not radioactive like widely believed.
With all due respect sir, try some, maybe it'll rub off on you.

melda laureWhat's not in the new iraqi constitution?#10111504/09/03; 22:08:31

Nebuchadnezzar, king of gold. But this guy haruvo clay feet

"The war now moves from the battlefield to the political arena"

Perhaps, for today at least; today (as Lieberman says) will be remembered as Iraqi Freedom day- if all goes well. For the present, Weapons of Mass Distraction have been distracted by Iraqi Liberation Wednesday. Who knows what the tommorrows will bring?

Among these things will be more blood more riots more looting and (it is to be hoped) more celebrations, humanitarian aid and eventually prosperity.

"Freedom is a great privilege and paid with a great price."

That price was too high for Chirac, Schoder and Putin; that price was NOT to high for W Bush and Blair. And while paid with other peoples money, and other peoples blood, you can neither fault nor credit these five men for their choices based on whose coin was to be spent. Regardless, the coin WAS spent - it remains to be seen what was purchased, for whom, and what sort of warranty it comes with.

It is hoped that we have purchased for the iraqi people a lasting rule of law. I should clarify this by pointing out that a month ago, they already HAD the rule of law- with the exception of their own lawless government that did whatever it wanted to. The average citizen had to toe the line very carefully. The elites in the government committed any and every "crime" they wanted to.

So in order to have a lasting rule of law they need a constitution.

What kind of constitution?

And here it should be pointed out that the Americans thought long and hard about this subject during the long years of their purported "oppression" by the "tyrannical" King George III; indeed many disputed that they were in fact oppressed at all. It was YEARS before that incident in Concord Mass. And they thought long and hard about it after that incident came to its conclusion. Victory came in a matter of months; crafting a lasting version of the constitution was a matter of YEARS.

I say this because in a matter of weeks the iraqis will have a new "constitution" that will be the product of days of deliberation, by God alone knows who, and little afterthought may well be taken in the years to come.

Two things are likely to be left out of the new Iraqi constitution:

Any mention about real money.

The ninth ammendment, (or its equivalent) which limits the powers of government to those in the constitution, and simultaneously leaves limitless the rights of the citizens (except as enumerated otherwise).

One thing sure to be put in:

authorization for a central bank.

It is perhaps too much to expect a gold/silver clause in a new constitution at this time- but it can be added later PROVIDED there is no central bank to begin with. The iraqis should learn from the mistakes of others: The FED currently has been a long term disaster which has stolen wealth from the american people for the benefit of the government. Lack of a central bank may (or may not) cause a greater demand for foreign currency to be drawn into the country and also a greater demand for real money to be drawn in as well. It will be very difficult to fend off the FED/IMF/ECB/BIS hydra.

Indeed I am not an expert in these matters, I can merely see that there has been no consideration given to the issue- though the top bankers are sure to have several plans already well formed. At this point any gold clause in a proto-constitution is likely to be subverted (or used to check-mate the budding Dinar/Dirham plan). Freedom is a dangerous gift, and a central bank is a power too great to give to a government: even the US FED is theoretically supposed to be independent from the US government- (some say it is the de facto senior partner).

There is no immediate need for a central bank in Iraq; as long as the printing presses are out of commission, eventually the existing supply of notes will stabilize in value (according to the theoretical ramblings of some). Without a central bank Iraq is in a better position to repudiate its existing debts anyway. The only reason given for a central bank is to have a "strong central government". And the reason for that is obvious: Iraq is not the colonies of 1776, the war has not left a collection of self-governing regions, each with its own independent legislature and local laws, police, courts, legislators, and so on. But does free coinage circulate with a collection of free banks and a hodegepodge of foreign and local notes? In the internet age of wire-able money is a local central bank necessary for industrial finance? "De-Nazification" of Iraq is not possible as it was in Germany of '45. (though I'm sure someone closer to the subject may well correct my ignorance in that area- the british seem at least to be giving it a shot)

The US Marines have done a great job and paid for it; if the tree of iraqi liberty shows the gloom of green #2 and red #5 instead of the light of silver and gold then that fault is to be laid at the feet of the bankers - whose statue I hope to live to see wearing a halter and chains, and to see it pulled down (even if it is only as far as the thumbs down position ;-)

The Dagor Laurea continues- Iraq is ultimately but a footnote.

Black BladeMarket Wrap Up - Puplava#10111604/09/03; 22:16:04



The headlines all read the same: Stocks up, Earnings down, The economy is getting weaker. Despite worsening economic and earnings news, stocks have rallied and held up rather well given what has happened to most sectors of the economy. Wall Street is telling themselves that stocks are cheap and investors aren't listening anymore. According to the latest Wall Street estimates, stocks are now selling at 15 times forward earnings. Given the fact that the S&P 500 is currently selling at around 30 times trailing earnings, we are talking about earnings nearly doubling this year to reach those forward numbers. It goes without saying that this earnings miracle (like the earnings miracles predicted the previous three years that never materialized) will take place in the second half of the year or maybe the last month or week of the year annualized. I don't know what these guys are smoking, but it must be one heck of a mind-altering substance. I see nothing, and I do mean absolutely nothing, coming out of companies that would indicate an explosion in earnings is just around the corner.

Black Blade: Amen to that! Personally I have looked high and low trying to find one scrap of positive data to justify the claims made by the pinheads on Wall Street. I just can't find anything – nada, zilch! Yet I still hear pinhead after pinhead on the stock infomercial channel making dubious claims on nonexistent data that there is some miracle going to happen in the "second half". It ain't gonna happen.


It Just Isn't Working

Aggressive monetary policy and an over abundance of credit have failed to keep the economic engine running. It is now rumored that the Fed may be considering emergency measures and unconventional policy fixes out of desperation. It is apparent with interest rates at half-century lows that monetary policy has been a dismal failure. The only thing that the Fed has been able to do is recreate new bubbles in mortgages, housing, and consumption, which are now in danger of deflating. It has become the Fed's own worst nightmare. Monetary policy isn't working.

Black Blade: Some time ago when the Fed started to cut rates (that was about 11 or 12 rate cuts ago) I stated that it was not working and that the investor would look at these rate cuts as a sign of weakness and desperation. Sure enough, eventually the equities market indices tumbled after each rate cut. In spite of all the plans and "fixes" at work here I can only think of a couple of things left to do once rates hit "zero". One is do what Fed Gov Bernanke says: "fire up the printing presses". The other is for the US government and Federal Reserve to openly enter the stock market and buy equities. That will be the final nail in the coffin in my opinion, but there is nothing left. It's going to get very "interesting" going forward.

Some good charts and tables worth looking at in the linked article.

melda laureThey need a constitution#10111704/09/03; 22:21:49

I should clarify that. It is PURPORTED that they "need a constitution". Britain seems to do fine without one. Of course their system has been bubbling on the stove for about 1200 years (with not a few kitchen flare ups). That's a long recipie to whip up in a hurry.

"They need a constitution like the trojans needed a wooden horse" is what I should have said.

Aristotlemikal#10111804/09/03; 23:10:37

Gold and silver separated long ago, and the gulf between them will widen further -- in my carefully studied opinion.

True enough, when a singular item is inexpensive, like an ounce of silver, its price doesn't have to move (nominally) by very much in order for it to double. But that doesn't mean that people are any more inclined to overpay for it if they don't have to. Using the same rationale would lead us to invest in rusty scrap iron because it's cheaper by the ounce and therefore, as the argument goes, more likely to triple, quadruple, or whatever.

Dollar by dollar I put my focus on quality over quantity. One small garden can be much more vital to a person's well-being than acres and acres of cheap burning sandstone.

Black Blade -- good post at #101100. Your opening paragraph sure resonated with my own thinking.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Yellow MetalChinese going for Venezuelan gold#10111904/09/03; 23:18:36

$13 million is being invested by a Chinese company in the Sosa Mendez nine in Venezuela.
The mine has reserves of 950.000 tonnes and production begins there in 20 months.
Crystallex is very active now and it looks like they have managed to put opposition from a Vancouver mining firm behind them.
They've got oil, they've got gold.
The Chinese are branching out.

mikal@Aristotle#10112004/09/03; 23:32:41

Re: "...but that doesn't mean that people aren't any more inclined to overpay for it if they don't have to." When paper price of Au and Ag seperated from value, the effect was to place gold at the forefront of world commerce at the expense of silver. The dual Au-Ag standard was no more, relinquishing it's role in denominating authentic weights and measures. After gold tried to go it alone, it lost much commercial, financial credibility and use, though not entirely as it is preeminent in international payments between most all large banks and nations.
It's portability advantage, density and modern history are subordinate issues.
Throughout the world, silver is still money, property and precious insurance.
The inconvenience of owning "acres and acres" of sandstone pales before it's utility IMHO. Luckily, "variety is the spice of life", even absent a "studied opinion".

slingshotThe Paper Trail#10112104/09/03; 23:38:20

It"s Not Over Yet!

Think it is all over, Think again. The demise of Saddam is only the tip of the iceberg. Rumsfeld has asked all the Iraqi people to expose caches of weapons,government employees and all information relating to the Saddam and his cohorts. This may well be just the stepping stone to future excursions. Some will call it an expansion of US Imperialism and others the Fight against Terrorism. These are Dangerous Times. The plight of the markets may be one of turmoil as the uncertainty of global security is stretched to its limits. During these times of stress the Dollar will remain high and strong to to see the economy is stable as the war clouds return. But, when uncertainty is deminished the Dollar will fall. By uncertainty I mean the threat of terrorism and the unsuccessful campaigns. Then we will see the introduction of the New Colored Money and the possible devaluation of the Dollar as the real markets take hold. IMO I think that Gold will Trade sideways and is in a great accumulation cycle. Under $400.00. Depending on world events that may change. From what I have read I did change My Window Of Opportunity to buy Gold. Connecting the Dots may be different than yours, but I have that gut feeling. Can not put my finger on it, but it is there all the same.

To the Forum: You all are doing a Wonderful Job and Hanging Tough!


mikal@Aristotle#10112204/09/03; 23:47:25

Another effect of the official seperation between Au and Ag, initiated when the U.S. bimetal standard itself was replaced with the gold standard in the early 1800's is: The POS/POG ratio became distorted and unbalanced. For thousands of years the ratio was 16 or 17 to one, which equals the ratio that these metals appear naturally in the earth. Tonight the ratio is over 72/1.
slingshotSilvercollector Msg # 101109#10112304/10/03; 00:01:12

Bet High and Sleep In the Streets

When I was younger I went to Las Vegas and after a good nights winnings I happen to see an older ladie standing by the crap table which the min. bet was $10,000. She was wearing a beautiful diamond neckless. Stunning to say the least. I approached her and asked if she would give me a few pointers on the table. Her reply was, You Don't Belong Here! First Rule, Know your limits.

mikal@Slingshot#10112404/10/03; 00:03:09

Re: "but when uncertainty is diminished, the dollar will fall. Maybe but what if the uncertainty of holding gold is now over, at least as regarding any risk that Iraq had with the market. People can see the economy won't improve enough to justify a higher dollar. They may not buy the story line that says another terrorist threat or war requires that the economy be called "strong" or else be called unpatriotic and anti-american. The markets don't see it that way unless the meduia pulls a very large rabbit out of it's hat and the ESF and PPT go on steroids, IMHO. But that's what will scare off foreigners, leading to the return of "big float" and necessitating official $ devaluation for stability, along with other measures, like a state of emergency or closure of NY markets. Or the Fed could cause this with outright purchases and monetizing of bonds and/or further opening of the money supply hydrants.
Aristotlemelda laure, back to the drawing board#1011254/10/03; 00:08:55

Hi guy. I was with you through all of your constitution talk but then had to step away quickly as the central bank and monetary comments all collapsed in a nasty heap. Looks like the foundation needs a bit more work.

Dagor Laurea? That's a cakewalk. I think the real war is the Dagor Thaurn--min, evidenced above.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Aristotlemikal -- on the end of the precious metal monetary "standard"...#1011264/10/03; 00:32:37

"...relinquishing it's role in denominating authentic weights and measures."

Huh? Wha..? A gram is still a gram, an ounce is still an ounce, and Gold is still Gold. If you're driving at use of unit Gold as a standard for measuring value of other items, read onward. My answer to that is folded into my response to your following comment:

"After gold tried to go it alone, it lost much commercial, financial credibility and use, though not entirely as it is preeminent in international payments between most all large banks and nations."

The only credibility it lost was a result of financial smoke and mirrors. Think about it. Pointedly, how can we *know* Gold's value (and subsequently use it to measure the value of other items) if paperGold is allowed to circulate on par with the real Metal?

Owing to the evolutionary development of the monetary system there's a massive legacy of jumbled perception about money and property (real wealth), and it makes for a long loooong hike getting back to right. I'm no Trail Guide so don't follow me, but I do know which direction to walk. With a spring in my step on the trail of giants!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

slingshotMikal#1011274/10/03; 00:37:54


The Uncertainty of holding Gold Is Not Over. When Gold rose to $380.00 my co-worker told me that it was too expensive to buy in. Fundamentals be Damned. He just asked me tonight at work on the POG and made no mention he was about to get in even at gold being $325.00. Its all a mind set. He is still hanging on to the notion that the stock market will soon rise to great heights. The war will ultimatly lead to the Big Float and with the increase in interest rates will be the final deathblow to the markets. Even today,volume should have been high with the war news and the market turned down. Big Block Traders? PPT? We may be on the upper end of the learning curve and the general public has some ways to go to catch up.

Black BladeInternational Aspects of U.S. Energy Security #1011284/10/03; 00:53:51


Press Release: US State Department

Hard Facts About Energy

We approach international energy policy aware of a number of hard facts that must be factored into the formulation of the nexus of an effective energy security and foreign policy. These hard facts include:

* Imports supply roughly half of our oil needs, and an even greater share of the needs of some of our most important allies and economic partners.

* We are no longer self-sufficient in natural gas. We now import 15 percent of our natural gas, almost entirely from Canada, but in growing volumes from Trinidad and other LNG [liquefied natural gas] suppliers.

* Two-thirds of proven world oil reserves are in the Middle East. In contrast, the United States has 2 percent of proven world oil reserves.

* OPEC [Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries] nations provide roughly one third of the total oil exports, but also control two-thirds of world reserves.

* Oil supply shocks in any region of the world have an impact on our economy through the instantaneous operation of international oil markets, as we saw recently in Venezuela.

Taken together, these facts mean that an effective international energy security policy must, as outlined in the President's National Energy Policy:

1. Promote increased and diversified production of energy from a range of foreign suppliers in many regions.

2. Coordinate effective international measures to respond to physical oil supply disruptions, through investment in strategic oil stocks, and through cooperative mechanisms to draw on them in case of a severe physical oil supply disruption.

3. Encourage major oil producing countries to maintain responsible production policies to support a growing world economy and reduce oil market price volatility.

American energy security policy must complement and support America's economic and foreign policy goals. We must ensure that our economy has access to energy on terms and conditions that support economic growth and prosperity. And we must ensure that the United States can pursue its foreign policy and national security interests without being constrained by energy concerns.

Black Blade: Interesting but I think it underestimates the vulnerabilities for the US, overestimates the ability of foreign producers, and does not adequately cover limitations placed on domestic energy production. The article does cover a lot of ground (and it's a bit long). Otherwise it is an interesting presentation and reveals the thinking at the State Department about energy and the impacts of global energy supply on the global economy. A good review for those who ask why we are so concerned with Iraq.

mikal@Aristotle#1011294/10/03; 01:03:59

Honest weights and measures. Used to be that a silver dollar would fetch a certain amount of gold and a gold dollar a certain amount of silver. Studies done reveal the old bimetallic systems of the world were classic examples of sound policies ruined by official monetary debasement.
SundeckSlingshot #101123 Gambling in Vegas#1011304/10/03; 01:04:59

Hey Slingshot...

Your post reminded me of a book I read a few years ago "Memoir of a gambler" by Jack Richardson ... good read, not much about gold, but lots about life...very funny...recommend.



Black BladeEuro Markets Start Of In The Red#1011314/10/03; 01:38:42

Euro markets start off in negative territory. Gold is under a little pressure at the open after holding up well in Asia. The USD is back under 100 but rebounding slightly.

- Black Blade

Black BladePrivate Economists Gloomier on Growth#1011324/10/03; 02:16:25


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Gloom about the U.S. economy's prospects is increasing among private economists who have slashed forecasts for gross domestic product after a slew of data showing hefty job losses and sluggish factory output. The closely watched Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter said on Thursday its forecasting panel had sharply cut its growth projections in the first half of this year. Also, nearly one-third of the 50 business economists on the panel expected the Federal Reserve to trim interest rates from their four-decade low of 1.25 percent.

Although private economists had been expecting some weakness in growth, many have been surprised by the persistence of bleak data. "The first bits of economic data for March -- with the notable exception of auto sales -- have tended to dash prior hopes that extreme winter weather accounted for a preponderance of the weakness seen in much of the February data," Blue Chip said in a summary of its latest survey results. The U.S. economy lost 108,000 jobs in March, following a 357,000 reduction in February. March marked the fourth drop in payrolls in the past five months -- a trend that Blue Chip referred to as "an almost unheard of occurrence in non-recessionary periods."

Black Blade: There's that unsettling feeling among the economist community as facts begin to out weigh fiction. There just are not enough excuses to satisfy the growling bear. It reads like the fairy tale "Goldilocks". It was "too cold", it was "too hot", it will be just right in the "second half", it's the "CNN effect", etc. Oops – it's the awful economy. Of course they are still in denial about the fact we are still in a recession.

Aristotlemikal -- classic examples#1011334/10/03; 03:28:41

A lot of things "used to be."

Play those studies forward, dear fellow. Turns out those classic examples didn't stand up too well to the trials of life under fire. You have any reason to believe anything has changed and the law of the jungle has been repealed? If you do, lemme know.

Life on the ground, my good man, calls for the wits to adjust to the changing weather and terrain, along with a little bit of knowing where you are and where we're going. A man took off his bearskin coat with the passing of winter. He also shed his silver with the blossom of modern banking.

There's no arguing with the ground you stand on. Gold/silver has climbed to 72 to one, you say? Ahem, that alone speaks louder and more convincingly than I ever could.

Gold. Get you some springwear. --- Aristotle

Black BladeState may order gold mining company to fill open pits#1011344/10/03; 03:56:23


PANAMINT SPRINGS, Calif. - The 3.3 million-acre Death Valley National Park has been home to mines since the days of gold-panning and borax miners with their 20-mule teams. But at its Thursday meeting, the state's Mining and Geology Board is expected to require that all open-pit metal miners refill their excavations and guarantee that the expensive refilling will be paid for. If the board adopts the policy, California would become the first state nationwide to mandate such mining reforms.

Black Blade: One way to offset the cost of refilling would be at closure to turn the pits into landfills. With all the waste generated by Californian city dwellers and the constant need for landfill sites, this would be one solution. Charge them for disposal, fill it up with garbage, then cover it over, and then pipe off and sell the generated methane for the state's growing energy problem. Hey, it was seriously debated at one Nevada mine that I know of.

OperativeMarines Find Underground Nuke Lab?#1011354/10/03; 04:18:09

Acccording to the story at above link the Marines have found an underground nuke lab. If true, I suspect the networks will be all over this story in a short to show a smoking gun. But also troubling, is the vanishing act of Sadam and many of his key government heads according to other news services tonight. Looks like Sadam and Team had a prearranged rally point in case the war went south on them. Appears our government has no idea where "everybody" went. Hmmmmm. ??? Something, tells me this is not over yet. geesh, I hope its old age jitters. For the sake of our troops, I hope so.
TopazBonds and Gold. #1011364/10/03; 04:49:02

The Paper with the word "GOLD" on it, (thanks TC) really needs to take a breather here till weeks end and establish a base @ $320...and because it's really only a derivative of the Dollar/Bond arena, I'd expect just that.
Euro/Gold is reflecting the more pronounced disinflationary trend becoming evident due to $/E disparity.
An equilibrium E/Gold price is 320 and it will be VERY interesting to watch events as the Euro strives to reattain this level.
Will $/Gold retreat to 345-354 or E/$ weaken ?

One things for sure, the Short T's are screaming to the 30 Yr...come on down! 4.65% Yield...third time un-lucky.

LeSinNow For a Little Break From Iraq Conflict & BACK TO THE REAL WAR - EURo v US$#1011374/10/03; 07:25:47

The euro exchange rate relative to the dollar will not change appreciably this year. Sergei Ignatiyev, the Central Bank chief, offered this opinion on Wednesday, April 2.

But, he noted, The longer and harder the events in Iraq, the bigger the foundation for the dollar rate to fall in comparison with other currencies.

Ignatiyev referred to Tuesday's dollar slippage in forex trading in Russia as a small correction. A situation has developed on the market where supply clearly exceeds demand, he said

Paper AvalancheWW III on its way...#1011384/10/03; 08:17:34

As I said previously, this is surreal.


ZhishengGold today in London and New York#1011394/10/03; 08:51:20

Like trying to hold a greasy basketball under water in a whirlpool.
ge@ Aristotle#10114004/10/03; 10:37:21

What is your opinion on the following system?

* Gold and silver coins circulate and consumers pay their purchases (bread, butter etc.) with coins.
* Deposit banks cannot lend, cannot pay interest and receive some fee for the service they supply (namely safekeeping of gold and silver bullion).
* Investment banks can lend and can pay interest. However, their lending and borrowing maturities must match. They cannot finance say a 10 year project with deposits of 1 year maturity.
* Saving precedes investment and consumption.

What is the purpose of these efforts?

To limit the power of government…

Best regards

KevBelgian faces another fight over assets#10114104/10/03; 11:46:17

BRUSSELS, April 10 (Reuters) - A shareholder rights group has asked a court to get Belgium's central bank to clarify the legal status of its foreign reserves in the latest salvo in a battle over possession of the bank's assets.

The group, Deminor, said on Thursday it had filed a complaint with the Brussels commercial court to force Banque Nationale de Belgique to provide more information about its assets to determine whether shareholders had a right to them.

"Deminor considers that this information is material since it has a direct impact on the assessment of the value of the (bank) and therefore of its share listed on the stock market," it said in a statement.

According to its figures, the bank's foreign reserves are estimated to be around 40 percent of the total, valued at more than 30 billion euros ($32.36 billion) at the end of last year.

Deminor said information received from the bank's March 31 annual shareholder meeting and subsequent annual report about the bank's assets was "incomplete and confusing".

Deminor manager Charles Demoulin told Reuters that the court filing was made on behalf of 175 individual and institutional investors, including Brussels investment bank Petercam.

Deminor said it did not know how many shares the investors represented, but one of two other related cases filed against the bank represented 250 shareholders together owning up to six percent of the free float.

A spokeswoman at the bank, one of few listed European central banks, declined to comment. The bank has a free float of 50 percent.

Its stock was off 0.45 percent at 3,350 euros in quiet afternoon trade in Brussels. It has risen steadily since late last year amid speculation that the government might buy out the shareholders.

A top lawyer representing shareholders recently called on the courts to dissolve the bank because a transfer of its gold and currency reserves to the state had depleted its equity. The bank has denied such a transfer took place.

In the other two cases Deminor is trying to get shareholders what it deems to be their fair share of the reserves by arguing that the bank transferred its rights to print money to the European Central Bank after the launch of the euro.

The bank has always denied it had transferred its printing rights, saying that it shares that right with the ECB.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Attention USAGOLD-CPM, Inc. valued clientele and visitors!#10114204/10/03; 12:06:38

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Daniel Drufftime#10114304/10/03; 12:53:02

It looks like today's bullion market got a little short on time but think about gold finally ready to gap above 330? Don't bet against it, imho.


Daniel Druffge#10114404/10/03; 14:21:13

ge (04/10/03; 10:37:21MT - msg#: 101140)
@ Aristotle
What is your opinion on the following system?

ge, I have a sneaking suspicion that Aristotle is a Closet Fiat Lover...I could be wrong.


AristotleBear with me as I pour you a cup for a little tale. One lump or two?#10114504/10/03; 14:45:28

I was polishing an old silver teapot, when lo-and-behold a Genie appeared.

Somewhat amazed for a moment, I quickly gathered my wits and asked if I got three wishes. The Genie said, "Nope. Three-wish genies are a story-tale myth, but out of gratitude I'll grant you one wish. So... what'll it be, Ari?"

Without hesitation I said, "I want harmony in the Middle-East. See this map? I want these countries to interact with each other and with the rest of the world on a peaceful, economic footing, not supercharged with old social or religious animosities."

The Genie looked at the map shaking his head. "Ari, be reasonable. The people of these countries have been involved in war for thousands of years. Besides that, I'm kinda out of shape after being couped up in a teapot for a couple centuries. I'm good but not THAT good! Frankly, I don't think it can be done. Make another wish and please be reasonable."

I thought for a minute and said, "Well, I've never been able to convey the realities of the monetary system to my fellow USGOLDers. Some of them just can't understand what money is, how it works, and how physical Gold is uniquely positioned to protect them from inevitable monetary failings. They don't see how it alone can vastly gain value as it comes "into its own" (sooner rather than later) thanks to the challenges and wisdom of the euro architects. That's what I wish for ... a little enlightenment -- for some of the silverbugs and Gold Stardard-ites to simply understand the interactive roles of money and banking as something distinct from property and wealth."

The Genie let out a long sigh, shook his head and said, "Cripes, lemme have another look at that map..."

One wish: Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

steadyTWO LUMPS PLEASE ARI.#10114604/10/03; 14:58:08

OK ARISTOTLE. maybe im starting to see the difference between money and gold. but why does a gold standard not fit. why did u make a comment about a gold standard not being ok for gold. is it because it( the gold standard) ties gold to money and the two should be seperate
AristotleVery good, ge -- msg#: 101140#10114704/10/03; 15:08:27

You've laid out a structure that takes care not to artificially inflate the amount of Gold in circulation or ownership. Gold passes from hand to hand as property. What you see is what you get.

Basically I like it, and don't think for a minute that I haven't already considered this angle before.

Now let's get down to business. I can tell you're a very smart dude because you carefully put forth the exact terms of usage that you knew would meet my favor because it wouldn't undermine Gold's unique value.

As a very smart guy, maybe you can take things one step further and lend me a hand in this unending effort. Admit to your fellows here why your system, as good as is sounds in theory, is actually revealed to be an unworkable Utopian pipe dream if put into practice. Thanks, champ.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Daniel Druffsteady#10114804/10/03; 15:10:19


Any news?


Black BladeSars hits Hong Kong growth#10114904/10/03; 15:11:43


No-one goes out in Asia without a face mask these days With shops closed, airlines slashing flights, hotels and restaurants emptied, Hong Kong's targets for economic growth will have to be scrapped. The government's acknowledgement of just how bad the Sars virus is for economic as well as physical health came as legislators passed a budget packed with tax rises and cost cuts to trim a HK$70bn (£5.7bn; $9bn) budget deficit.

Black Blade: SARS is spreading and China now admits that they have a growing crisis on their hands after a military doctor accused the Party's health minister of covering up the problem (I see a possible short career for this poor doctor). Singapore has set up a "quarantine camp" for the growing number of exposed and suspected cases. Yesterday a US health official stated that he believes that SARS is "here to stay" in Asia. The virus is now thought to actively exist on surfaces longer than originally thought. Another problem is that those infected may not develop immunity and could suffer repeated cases if exposed. One thought is that the disease could be transmitted by cockroaches of all things and that may cause problems for exporters. Already many industries such as airlines are suffering because of SARS. "Interesting Times"

Daniel Druffge#10115004/10/03; 15:16:27

An Unworkable Revelation

"Admit to your fellows here why your system, as good as is sounds in theory, is actually revealed to be an unworkable Utopian pipe dream if put into practice." Aristotle

Pipe dream?...hmmmm


21mabry(No Subject)#10115104/10/03; 15:21:26

Silver says to Gold. Can't we all just get along. That goes for Platinum and Palladium to and even Copper.
Black BladeVictory may not defeat economic doubt#10115204/10/03; 15:31:02


The post-war recovery is getting off to a rocky start. While events in Baghdad on Wednesday seemed to signal the endgame of the U.S. military campaign in Iraq, a slew of skeptics doubt a quick end to war would spark the long-awaited economic rebound. Unlike the Gulf War in 1991, when the fighting ceases now, it will signal only more uncertainty --- about the costs of rebuilding Iraq, political as well as economic. There will be worry about a resurgence of anti-American forces in Iraq, as well as other possible conflicts in the region or with North Korea.

For months, the more optimistic economists have blamed the woes of impending war for dampening consumer spending and delaying corporate expenditures. And with each hint of a rapid U.S. victory, the stock market soared and the price of oil fell --- holding out twin promises: a renewed faith in corporate growth and a lighter load for companies and consumers alike. Business spending has still not reversed a three-year slide that sent the economy into recession in 2001. And while consumer spending carried the economy for more than a year, there has lately been ominous signs of retreat. Energy costs have added a painful burden for months, rising to decade-long highs just as winter heating needs peaked. Worries about war in the world's most oil-rich region sent the price of crude to nearly $40 a barrel and the price of gasoline over $2 a gallon in some parts of the United States. U.S. factories are running at only 75 percent of capacity, substantially below the point at which hiring typically starts. Many companies will not expand --- war or not, agreed economist Murray Weidenbaum of Washington University in St. Louis.

About 8.5 million are jobless and millions of others are working less than they want. While the unemployment rate is 5.8 percent --- low by recession standards --- many people have dropped from the work force and are no longer counted in the calculation. "But I don't think it's just the war," said Richard Kopelman, partner in charge of manufacturing at Habif, Arogeti and Wynne, an Atlanta-based accounting firm. "Even if we had a quick resolution of the war, I don't see a quick improvement in the economy."

Black Blade: And so it goes. The economy is in a serious downtrend and not likely to recover for years. There are simply too many strikes against any hope of economic recovery. All the statistical massage the BLS can muster can not change the fact that Americans are running scared and it is going to get worse. Unemployment is growing, debt is rising to record levels daily, and capex just isn't materializing. In a word – "grim".

Aristotlesteady, let's try to get our minds around this money thing#10115304/10/03; 16:03:55

Among other purposes, money serves us by trying to measure value of everything else in the world. Prices are quoted in terms of monetary units.

Gold Standard pushers think that money needs to have a permanent tangible definition (like an ounce of Gold) in order to more perfectly serve its pricing (value-measurement) function.

So far, they have they intellectual high ground -- an unassailable position if we were to stop right there.

But we can't stop there, because money (True *money*, mind you) serves a fundamentally more important role than a standard for pricing. It serves as a unit of account in the writing of contracts to dictate terms of future performance and expectations between people. Like a loan, for example. That promisory aspect is what gives something "moneyness" not be be confused with "propertyness."

Looking back now at our first point, how can anyone get their mind around the all-important Standard Value for an ounce of property like Gold (for its pricing function) if abundant paper promises for property (i.e., Gold loans) are circulating at par with the real property?

Don't quite follow me? Ok, let's try this.

Here's where the problem lies. In and of itself, we don't know what the value of any given item is, Gold included. We need to compare its exchange value against other familiar things to get a sense of its value. This is especially true of property like Gold because we don't consume it. Something like a loaf of bread on the other hand is a bit easier for us to discover it's value even if we can't compare it to other things. Think about it for a while if you have to. I'll wait while you do.

OK, so now we know that we have to compare Gold to other things in order to develop our sense of what it's worth, and only after developing this sense can we hope to utilize it across the board as a standard of value for measuring prices.

Now again I ask you, how can we determine and forever preserve our sense of Gold's value if vast unit's of promisory Gold (Gold Standard money) are allowed to circulate on equal footing with the much scarcer metal which alone is supposed to be the standard of value?

Take this thought to heart: If Gold is to be the rock-solid standard of value, then it can't also be made available in promisory form -- the very aspect that morphs real property/wealth into unavoidably obscure moneyness. It's one, or the other. Not both. I choose the former.

Increase your wealth/property, not your illusions.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

21mabryAristotle#10115404/10/03; 16:34:19

Aristotle, I have some of your namesakes works in my home library.I know he had some things to say about precious metals and money.I am going to read up on them and hopefully be able to understand them. 21
Daniel DruffAristotle#10115504/10/03; 16:45:12

"...terms of future performance..."

"But we can't stop there, because money (True *money*, mind you) serves a fundamentally more important role than a standard for pricing. It serves as a unit of account in the writing of contracts to dictate terms of future performance and expectations between people. Like a loan, for example. That promisory aspect is what gives something "moneyness" not be be confused with 'propertyness.'" Aristotle

And we come right back to Fiat. And what really is Fiat? With what is it secured? Could it be a promise to commit your time in securing the demand of ANOTHER. It's backed by effort which takes time to demonstrate.

There is no sound economic reason, which I'm aware of, which says: Do not use gold as collateral. And in my opinion, ge has some great ideas...even though I don't like the idea of carrying a lot of weight all over town.

A system which prices goods and services in terms of gold-weight, along side a Fiat Credit System which you may design, could be dynamic and reasonably moral.


AristotleDruffster#10115604/10/03; 16:54:00

"Cripes, lemme have another look at that map..."

I can relate, 'cause doin' that other thing is hopeless.

Gold. Guess I'll just keep gettin' me some. --- Arisotle

R PowellAristotle // Money and metals#10115704/10/03; 16:57:24

Would I be correct if I paraphrased your 101153 with the following...?

Since the amount (quantity) of money is never constant, its relative value rarely is. (It theorically may be constant for a period of time, depending upon the amount of and demand for the tangible goodies available to be bought and sold with whatever amount of money is available) Is this what you mean? The "value" of money is always in flux.

Also, I'd agree that money is a means of exchange and gold (all tangible objects) are property and, of course gold is a tangible form in which to store wealth and protect that wealth from the devaluation of whatever happens to pass for money but, wouldn't silver (in this scenario) serve the same purpose. Other than the weight and volume involved, what quality does gold possess that silver has not? I presuppose a limited, existing quantity of each with a future limited production of each no matter how dearly priced in currency terms.

Paper Avalanche@ Ari - while you seem to be on a roll today....#10115804/10/03; 17:23:32

What are your thoughts on the rationale for the introduction of the silver dirahm in concert with the gold dinar? Just say the word and I will call the folks in the Islamic banking circles and let them know that they have it all wrong if you are able to convince me so.

Knock yourself out.


BTW, I don't mean to be an a$$. I do like you. I find it entertaining to watch a man defend an indefenseable position.

Aristotlemsg#: 101157, Rich, that paraphrase effort works fine for me.#10115904/10/03; 17:40:39

Further, the value of a monetary unit is always in flux not only because the supply of money is in flux, but also because the enforcement of laws and contracts that stand behind the moneyness of these units are themselves in flux.

Yes, theoretically silver (and nearly every other metal) could give Gold a run for its position of preeminent value, but it really does come down to efficiency. It only takes one to be king of the hill. Two or more would be redundant, and the eventual drive for efficiency naturally favors the one that's already established the upper hand. We see this process already playing itself out over the decades as silver has been shed in favor of Gold by governments and individuals alike.

There is no reason to think the ratios will stabilize at this humble difference because the power of Gold has not yet been fully revealed. The next phase will be against the dollar. Everyone loves a winner, and a virtuous circle will play out for a time as various assets are shed from usage in a reserve capacity in favor of rising Gold. Dollar holders will seek Gold, bond holders will seek Gold, derivative holders will seek Gold, yen holders will seek Gold, euro holders will seek Gold, and yes, even many longtime holdout diehard silver holders will finally yield to the obvious efficient winner as the dollar loses international reserve status to king Gold.

It only takes one physical item to fill the niche, and there'll be no inefficient riding of coattails by any related yet redundant item.

We (meaning the system) have been building to this point for a long, long time. The signs are all around, and have been the basis for much discussion in and around the Gold Trail. At this point in time wouldn't it be a shame to miss the big payoff due to blind sentimentalities for silver or for faith in the performance of leveraged counterparties?

Best advice on the net coming up in Three... Two... One...

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

AristotlePA, help me out by putting your finger right on it#10116004/10/03; 17:46:33

What PRECISELY is the "undefensible position" that you're referring to?

On the other point you raised, I'm not going to waste my time on your dinar/dirham relationship because it's a waste of your energy and mine.

G. G.y.s. --- Ari

Daniel DruffAristotle to PA#10116104/10/03; 18:03:11

"What PRECISELY is the "undefensible position" that you're referring to?"

Here it is:
"As a very smart guy, maybe you can take things one step further and lend me a hand in this unending effort. Admit to your fellows here why your system, as good as is sounds in theory, is actually revealed to be an unworkable Utopian pipe dream if put into practice. Thanks, champ." Aristotle to ge

Paper Avalanche@ Ari#10116204/10/03; 18:20:47

Easy. (I like to keep things simple)

What do you envision the relationship to be between the silver dirham and the gold dinar upon its official launch this summer as perceived by those who you envision abandoning silver for gold in the end?

Take your time.


Paper Avalanche@ Ari - to answer your specific question...#10116304/10/03; 18:30:06

You asked what is the indefenseable position? Quite simply it is the notion that gold will propel to stratospheric heights in value to Joe Sixpack (bearing in mind that all "value" must have a point of reference) without being accompanied by its little brother silver.

Your argument is compelling if taken through a narrow channel of thought. However, I would politely submit that there exists no period in Western history where the intrinsic parallel between gold and silver has been severed to the extent that you envision. Maybe we are entering a new era of Western civiliation where history has no bearing. Maybe klingons will invade earth. Who knows.


AristotlePA and "little brothers"#10116404/10/03; 18:36:49

DNA testing reveals Gold to be an only child.

Soooooo... prepare yourself for klingons, I guess.

--- Ari

silvercollectorge, DD and silvercollectors#10116504/10/03; 18:42:46

In some regard I come to Ari's defense (not that he needs it).

Have you silverlovers read the non-viability issues over the years of bi-metallic monetary systems. Have you recognized that while one metal may lead another briefly, a simultaneous appreciation of 2 metals has never lasted for long.

Check your history and place your bets, gold or silver. You better be correct.

silvercollectorWow, wow and wow!#10116604/10/03; 18:50:33

Just witnessed an all out brawl on CNN. The fact is was on CNN is irrelevant. Scott Ritter the former chief weapons inspector and Bob Tierney, his right hand man had a full-fledged toe-to-toe yelling match over Iraq's supposed possession of WMD.

Ritter says Iraq does not have them, blamed Tierney for being a CIA operative and suggests that the US is in deep do-do if WMD are not found.

Tierney says Iraq has them and the US will be vindicated once found.

Big time argument. Imagine the US/UN debate, must be beyond serious.

Gold related? You betta, the US is betting the farm, they MUST be correct!!!!!

Paper AvalancheCome on Ari, humor me about the silver dirahm.......#10116704/10/03; 18:51:41


Take care.


steadyaristotle. i need another cup . just one lump this time!#10116804/10/03; 18:57:47

whoa that was alot to digest (burp) excuse me !
ok now are u saying the promisary ness of gold in any gold backed fiat system is detrimental to the true price of gold because that promisory aspect of paper gold in fiat clothes will hold back the true value of gold because somehow that total amount of paper gold diminishes the value of all the real gold because it has been fractionalized? if this promisoryness makes gold money and not property then what value will that property take. if indeed there si no gold backed currency and then rather than money gold is property who/what / how will the pricing mechanism for that gold be achieved and what will it bein? what happens to all the gold in the central banks that is money does it become property? whose property?

u say........Looking back now at our first point, how can anyone get their mind around the all-important Standard Value for an ounce of property like Gold (for its pricing function) if abundant paper promises for property (i.e., Gold loans) are circulating at par with the real property?

Don't quite follow me? i say...... i follow u i think cause the answer to the question they cant unless they understand why gold will be more valuable( but valuavle in what terms ? in terms of fiat money or as property and then what gives this property value?

you say >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Now again I ask you, how can we determine and forever preserve our sense of Gold's value if vast unit's of promisory Gold (Gold Standard money) are allowed to circulate on equal footing with the much scarcer metal which alone is supposed to be the standard of value?

you can not determne the value because its the moneyness that gives gold its value, remove that and what does gold become> property? what if no on wants this property? and how is this property valued?
i am increasing my wealth/property one purchase at a time.

Daniel Druffsilvercollector#10116904/10/03; 19:00:53

Silver should be priced in terms of gold-weight. One ounce of silver is worth so-many grams of gold. When one ounce of silver is on par with one ounce of gold many of us will be very well-to-do. [At that point, I'd be inclined to cash in my Ag for Au...until then, Ag is the perfect vehicle for loose change.]


Daniel Druffsilvercollector#10117004/10/03; 19:03:59

re scott ritter

I have it on very good authority that Buena Fe is actually mr. scott ritter;)


R PowellWhat price gold ?? // Aristotle#10117104/10/03; 19:06:52

Aristotle: In post 101153 you said.....

"Looking back now at our first point, how can anyone get their mind around the all-important Standard Value for an ounce of property like Gold (for its pricing function) if abundant paper promises for property (i.e., Gold loans) are circulating at par with the real property?"

Isn't gold or any property priced by the powers of supply and demand with the constantly changing dollar price determined at the time of exchange. A Real Estate axiom for the price (fair market value) of a house is that amount for which it can be sold within 90 days when sufficiently advertised. Why isn't the POG simply the going exchange rate regardless of paper contracts? The contracts are bought and sold on the same basis (buying pressure versus selling pressure) with the object in question being the contract- NOT GOLD. It is a fact that the contract can be exchanged for physical gold and it is from this potential that the paper contract's monetary value is derived BUT it is the contracts that are bought and sold on the exchange with settlement in fiat. The physical exchange for the contract has to be possible so that the dollar value of the contract can be bartered.

It is also this potential exchange that links the contract's dollar value to the physical market price of gold. The immediate profits available from arbitrage keep and insure the dollar equality of physical POG and the contracts. If gold were to sell on the open market at prices much higher than the contract price, arbitrage traders would immediately buy contracts while simultaneously selling in the higher priced physical market to profit from the discrepency in price. This arbitrage force may not hold prices exactly even but, there will never be any great difference. As long as the exchanges are operative, there will not be any large disconnect between paper and physical prices on any sizeable scale. I'm sure our host would be the first to agree that large investors would buy and, if need be, stand for delivery if gold bullion were available off Comex at, say, $50-100/ounce cheaper than the going sale price of the same bullion.

So, even if paper contracts (deriving their value from the POG) do exist, on the Comex and elsewhere, how does their existence interfere with "the all-important Standard Value for an ounce of property like Gold (for its pricing function)"

I would submit that the POG is determined by the actual amount sought by buyers relative to the amount available to the market. Or we might say that the POG is some function of the amount of money available relative to the POG plus the incentive (wish) to exchange money for gold etc. and etc. and so on. However you define it, I do not follow your logic that the existence of paper gold contracts interfers with the POG. People who buy a contract have just that, a contract. That the contract's fiat exchange value is derived from the POG does not change the matter. It is the supply and demand for physical gold that sets the dollar price for physical gold. Contracts are almost always settled in fiat but the connection between the contracts price and that of gold exists and must remain so and remains very, very close to par due to arbritage.

What the contracts do provide, perhaps, is the overextension in an investment that derives its monetary value from the POG. This is basically true of all commodities. As for this notion (overinvestment relative to physical) and the actual amount of the physical commodity, I often wonder if most gambling casinos have enough cash to pay all winners if every slot machine player were to hit the jackpot at the same time? I would guess not with the commodity here being cash. That there isn't enough silver to cover all contracts is not alarming as the payoff for the contracts is (98% of the time) also cash settlement. Now, can the price be manipulated through this paper game? Probably, short term, imho, but that's another can of worms. Basically, the question is ...Does the invisible hand (force) of supply and demand set the market price or not? I believe it does.
Feel free to agree or throw rocks but please do so constructively. Thanks.

Daniel DruffWhat's this?#10117204/10/03; 19:25:15

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Topic: Gold Silver Ratio:India & China (1 of 1), Read 83 times
Conf: Gold & Silver
From: Tom Prince
Date: Wednesday, April 09, 2003 03:58 PM

I would appreciate CAFE CHAT BOARD MEMBER'S
thoughts on the influence of China and India
on the future price of silver.As a silver
bull I have followed the metal since the mid
1970s. I have read the arguments for a much
higher price for silver given by Jerome F.
Smith, Franklin Sanders, Ted Butler, David
Morgan, and recently other more extreme
writers on the internet. As a silver
investor, the higher the eventual price of
the metal the better, but I am beginning to
have some doubts about some of the
predictions, especially those that express
extremely high prices for silver.
The scarcity of silver is only in the west.
There are billions of ounces of above ground
silver in China and India, both silver sinks
since the time of Rome. Since India is nearer
to being a free society than China, only that
country will be considered in this argument
for a limited cap on the price of silver.
India is estimated to have over 2 billion
above ground ounces of silver. Much of that
silver is tied up in cultural and religious
objects and will never reach the west no
matter what the price of the metal. However,
much of the silver (one-half, one-third, ??)
is in the form of jewelry and savings of
small farmers, and could be sold, processed
and exported to the West if the price is high
enough. This silver could equal hundreds of
millions of ounces, enough to satisfy the
needs of the west until new mines can be
developed. But, the problem is that the small
people of Asia do not trust paper money, and
are reluctant to exchange long term saving in
silver for unreliable paper money. For this
reason many writers have dismissed the
possibility of a flood of silver coming from
the East. However, the small people of India
may give up their silver not for paper money
but for gold, a metal just as desirable as a
store of value. This exchange would take
place only if there is a favorable ratio
between gold and silver, i.e. a lowering of
the ratio, or more gold for a given amount of
silver. In such an exchange, the West would
get their silver and the East would get gold.
As I see it, if hundreds of millions of
ounces of silver become available to the West
from India and China, that would put off into
the distant future the great shortage
predicted for silver, as well as the extreme
prices predicted for the white

Some Cafe fellow...his wife must have cut him off before he finished...or maybe he did a cut 'n paste job on some unsuspecting silver bear.


Daniel Druffsimple math#10117304/10/03; 19:36:57


Prince says, India has 2 Billion ounces above ground...let's see, that's 6 Billion people in the world divided by 2 Billion extra ounces that no one ever figured on...hmmm, that's 3 ounces per person...WAIT, I did it backwards. It should be 2 Billion ounces divided by 6 Billion people equals 1/3 of an ounce per person. Oh yes, I can see it now...we have an incredible over supply of silver in the world...NOT!


R PowellSilver queen#10117404/10/03; 19:58:15

Aristotle, thanks for the reply and all your work today. Again your words...

"Yes, theoretically silver (and nearly every other metal) could give Gold a run for its position of preeminent value, but it really does come down to efficiency. It only takes one to be king of the hill. Two or more would be redundant, and the eventual drive for efficiency naturally favors the one that's already established the upper hand. We see this process already playing itself out over the decades as silver has been shed in favor of Gold by governments and individuals alike."

I'll agree that storing vast amounts of monetary value in silver would, of course, present a storage problem for governments and those who seek safety for, what are to most of us, monetary amounts beyond our means. However, imho exactly those numerous, oft-talked about forces that will cause the POG to increase will also lift the POS. Added to this, silver has the added upside potential from contracting available stores in the supply and demand equation for an industrial metal, that is, silver has even more reasons to appreciate in price no matter what the POG does. Both are using existing stores yearly to meet demand but silver's available existing supply as a percentage of use or yearly deficit is extreme. At the end of year 2002, estimates of 320 million ounces remain (figure from David Morgan) of which Buffett supposedly holds 130 million and Comex about 107. How low will remaining available supply become before price rationing begins?

Also, if severe monetary forces greatly enhance the POG, I'm betting (literally) that silver's monetary connection will re-emerge. It never faded in many cultures (economies) outside of the USA. I don't hold that silver has to or will return to any set ratio with gold but I would not be surprised to see silver appreciate in dollar price many times more than gold. Lastly, one could argue that while governments may move vast amounts of money into gold form, there are vast amounts of less wealthy investors that may move money into silver form. So, a few entities moving billions OR millions moving hundreds or thousands. Six or half a dozen. Many are predicting that the mania will carry both, along with other select tangible "things". Besides, silver never wanted to be "king of the hill." Everyone knows silver is the Queen!

"Things" like gold and silver...Get you whatever you can afford!

R PowellSilvercollector#10117504/10/03; 20:07:40

It's not illegal to own two metals

Your words......

"Check your history and place your bets, gold or silver. You better be correct."

Why is it that any discussion involving silver leads to an Either gold Or silver proposition?? Do stock investors suffer daily between buying one stock or any one? No, they simply buy both. Are you limited to the hamberger OR the french fries? The liver or the onions? The bread OR the butter? Heck no, buy BOTH.

Daniel DruffWho will be buying gold?#10117604/10/03; 20:08:24

It looks like the Dollar is worth around 120 Yen at the moment. As bad as our situation is, we have to anticipate 200 Yen to the Dollar, at a minimum. 200 Yen to the Dollar will certainly help Japan's exports...would a little move like this encourage China to de-link from the Dollar? I don't think so.


CytekBBC CONFIRMS "PEAK OIL"#10117704/10/03; 20:11:50

Shrinking production

In America, always the greediest consumer of oil, production has been falling for 30 years. Americans guzzle 20 million barrels of oil a day, but now they have to import over 60% of it.

That pattern is being repeated elsewhere. Geologist Dr Colin Campbell predicted a decline in the North Sea several years ago and claims by 2015 Britain may have to import over half its oil needs. "In 1999 Britain went over the top and is declining quite rapidly," he says.

"It's now 17% down in just three years, and this pattern is set to continue. That means that Britain will soon be a net importer, imports have to rise, the costs of the imports have to rise, and even the security of supply is becoming a little uncertain," Campbell adds.

But even if Iraq does boost its oil production ironically the effect could be short lived. Its vast reserves represent just four years of world consumption and by the time Iraqi oil is flowing freely, global oil production may already be in terminal decline.

Campbell thinks the decline will start by 2010. "It starts with a price shock due to control of the market by a few countries, and it is followed by the onset of physical shortage, which just gets worse and worse and worse," he says.

CytekAmerican Air Warns of Bankruptcy Risks#10117804/10/03; 20:24:34

American Air Warns of Bankruptcy Risks
Thursday April 10, 8:57 pm ET
By Jon Herskovitz and Kathy Fieweger

FORT WORTH, Tex./CHICAGO (Reuters) - American Airlines Chief Executive Donald Carty warned on Thursday that the world's largest airline may still file for bankruptcy even if union workers agree to big concession packages next week.

"I must tell you honestly, that given the impact of the war in Iraq and a continued weak economy, the possibility of a bankruptcy filing remains, these tentative agreements notwithstanding," Carty, the head of American's parent AMR Corp. (NYSE:AMR - News), told employees at a town hall meeting in Fort Worth, Texas.

Cytek - From the Words that a great man once said " Cleary Un-sustainable".

R PowellCorrection#10117904/10/03; 20:26:28

In 101174 I wrote....."I don't hold that silver has to or will return to any set ratio with gold but I would not be surprised to see silver appreciate in dollar price many times more than gold."

I occurs to me now that I have given the impression that I think the POS will exceed the POG. I do not. I do believe that the POS may (has the potential and probability to) increase more, percentage wise, than gold. I certainly hope silver has doubled at least twice by the time POG hits four digits.

Daniel DruffR Powell#10118004/10/03; 20:44:00

re: "percentage wise"

Thank you, I thought you might have flipped out.


AuBugSilver Bulls#10118104/10/03; 20:48:44

get real!! Silver is a dog and ain't goin' nowhere, nohow, noway.

Even a slight rise in the PoS will get a million unemployed Mexicans out into the digs to whack the price down again. Hey, when you work for four bucks a day, you've only gotta find an ounce to break even![fifty cents left over for a tortilla and beans] Not to mention the fact that China has been dumping bigtime. Chinese ain't dumb. They know a useless metal when they see one. You guys waiting for the Hunt brothers to be reincarnated are gonna have a long wait!

Why buy trash metal when da kingadametals is just sitting there waiting to protect your ass[ets]?

Get real, get gold!

AuBugMore on the 'trash metal'#10118204/10/03; 21:10:04

Silver ain't FRN's! Go ahead, take a silver dollar and spend it! Guy behind the cash register will whip it into his pocket so quickly, you won't even see it. Gresham's Law, remember? It will sit there for twenty years up in his closet and then will be given to his grand-niece on her birthday. She will lose it.

Silver is now trash metal. Byproduct of copper and other USEFUL stuff. If and when the economy comes good there will be even more silver around. Price will continue its decline. Gotta replace all the stuff they used up in the war and help Iraq with a new Marshall Plan. That should move commodities! If you expect the economy to collapse, ok, buy a few doorstops. Paint them black so burglers will think they are lead. Then wait ten years and sell them for 50% less [after inflation] than you paid for them.

Silver is trash metal.

Don't getcherself some!

Get real. Get gold.

shadesAuBug#10118304/10/03; 21:18:01

Walter Franklin is that You?
AuBugTo those guys that got on a bus#10118404/10/03; 21:20:16

in Amman, and went to Baghdad feeling all Jihaddy and all, you should have stayed home and bought gold. Hell, even the Iraqis are trying to get rid of you!!

I wonder how Saddam's half-brother felt when all those JDAMs went into his house? I'll bet he wished he owned gold!

Get real, get gold.

knotakare@Arisotle's Property#10118504/10/03; 21:26:37

Ari, you have stirred up the hobby monetarists, and so they will not you rest in peace with your well gotten property. I am enjoying this spectacle.

I'm sure there were those few who told everyone to sell their tech stocks in March 2000, and they were confronted with a zillion questions, most unanswerable.

I could read the book of Proverbs 100 times, but does that make me wise? We know that the US fiat is imperaled. Do I need to be all-knowing about all things monetary to act?

I have enjoyed this thread today; somedays the smoke doesn't bother my eyes. I like your thesis on propery, it makes sense and and makes things much easier for me.

AuBugshades#10118604/10/03; 21:27:01

no im walter mitty
shadesAuBug#10118704/10/03; 21:43:14

"Puppy biscuit," said Walter Mitty. He stopped walking and the buildings of Waterbury rose up out of the misty courtroom and surrounded him again. A woman who was passing laughed. "He said 'Puppy biscuit,'" she said to her companion. "That man said 'Puppy biscuit' to himself." Walter Mitty hurried on. He went into an A. & P., not the first one he came to but a smaller one farther up the street. "I want some biscuit for small, young dogs," he said to the clerk. "Any special brand, sir?" The greatest pistol shot in the world thought a moment. "It says 'Puppies Bark for It' on the box," said Walter Mitty.

puppy biscuits get you some

AuBugGonna have Turkey for dinner#10118804/10/03; 21:43:39

with Kurdish sauce. Better get summa them paratroopers on the border, pronto!! How does US vs Turkey sound for the next war?

Were any of you around when the Hunt Bros. bankrupted the US Government and forced them to change the rules?

Were you there in palladium when TOCOM shut down the market to save their a$$es? I was. Made a fortune but shoulda made two!

Forget silver. It is totally useless unless you like taking piktures. Kodak and Fuji have got 3 billion year supplies in their whore... ah...warehouses.

There is only ONE metal that is going to be worth passing on to your totally ungrateful relatives.

Get real. Get gold.

Daniel DruffAuBug#10118904/10/03; 21:50:31

re: Silver

"Price will continue its decline." AuBug

Have you ever heard of a short sale? You really should short all the silver your portfolio can handle. SELL SELL SELL...but don't forget the ol' axiom, He who sells what isn't hisun, must buy it back or go to prison.


21mabryWilliam Jennings Bryant#10119004/10/03; 21:51:51

Somebody needs to post cross of gold speech to defend silver.I guess its true there are silver people and there are gold people.I like them both, guess I am one of the few.
AuBugshades#10119104/10/03; 21:52:13

Missus is dragooning me away from my internet security blanket. Fancy restaurant. I'm paying. Made 60k this week on gold shares, so won't hurt. Now flat and shareless.

Gonna have puppy biscuits and hope to talk to you and assembled multitudes again some time. I have been scarce around here for years.

Get real. Get puppy bis...

shadesAri#10119204/10/03; 21:55:46

Sorry Ari, as I signed off my last message with a hint of sarcasm I realised that it might be considered a slight to your ending to all your great posts. This was not my intention as I hold your thoughts and musings in the utmost esteem. This place would suffer immensely if you were unable to post. GGYS words to live by THANKS
Black BladeClosing Pandora's Box: a case for hard money [gold]#10119304/10/03; 22:10:21


With the sound and the fury of the Iraq War hopefully fading from our TV screens, and War's most immediate effects on financial markets following, the case for hard money seems stronger now than ever. Yet, such has been the case ever since the fall of the USSR and still Gold as official monetary standard remains taboo. Perhaps the powers that be are finding that closing Pandora's Box is much more difficult than opening it. Fortunately, history suggests that while painful, a return to hard money is the best means to restore stability to a financial system and consequently durability to a political system.

Black Blade: A nice little history lesson. I recall the Russian liberalization of the gold market and the minting of new gold coin is in the works. To put that in perspective, the recent liberalization of the Chinese market with the creation of the Shanghai Gold Exchange and allowing individual ownership of physical gold appears to be a situation where these countries are subtly telling their people to consider gold (as opposed to US dollars) for personal savings. Both countries central banks have been accumulating gold in deference to dollars as well. In the case of the Chinese central bank they are overweight in dollars. However, the Chinese central bank has been buying gold direct from mines outside of the country (including from Harmony Gold in SA). It is rumored that they are huge buyers of the Swiss gold sales program (and perhaps were buyers from time to time during the BOE "fire sale gold giveaway" program courtesy of Gordon Brown). The details have not been released yet but the Chinese central bank apparently has not let up on their accumulation. The Russians on the other hand are quite open about buying gold and the central bank buying has been a program of steady accumulation. Other central banks in the Far East have been buyers and rumored buyers. The Philippine central bank is a known buyer and recently is has been rumored that the Singapore Central Bank has been in the market as well. There appears to be a general dislocation of gold wealth shifting from west to east. A World Gold Council representative from the region (sorry I do not recall his name) has been actively consulting Asian central banks and the word is that some of these banks have the desire to offset the risk of being so overweight in US dollars. These bankers are probably licking their chops at the prospect of Ernst Welteke of the ECB carrying out his hope of selling ECB gold - another load ready to shift eastward? "Interesting Times"

Black BladeGold seen eyeing $350 on economic outlook -GFMS#10119404/10/03; 22:52:18


LONDON, April 10 (Reuters) - Gold prices may return above $350 an ounce in the second half of this year based on a weak outlook for stock markets and the dollar, consultants Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) said on Thursday. GFMS, releasing its Gold Survey 2003, said gold had that potential given its status as a haven for investors.

GFMS saw further stock market weakness, especially in the United States, as a strong possibility. That, together with a still weak dollar and low interest rates, was seen as a framework within which investors could return to gold to drive the price back over $350.

Black Blade: The stock market is in a secular bear and will trend down for at least a few more years. The US dollar is still grossly overvalued and should continue to weaken in spite of desperate attempts by the Japanese to scuttle the yen and increasingly nervous EU bankers.


GFMS's survey estimated that world gold mine production in 2002 fell by a modest 36 tonnes year-on-year to 2,587 tonnes, the first decline since 1994. "The drop was mainly due to heavy falls in the United States and Indonesia, which countered gains elsewhere, for example, in Africa, South America -- chiefly Peru --, China and Russia," GFMS said. For miners, their total cash costs in 2002 rose by $4 an ounce to $180 an ounce, the first rise in five years and mainly due to lower production, higher power costs and currency appreciations.

Black Blade: This trend will accelerate. After several years of virtually little or no exploration to replace reserves, it will be years before new production can make up for the shortfall (a minimum of 7 years and more likely longer, and only after exploration activity picks up). Today AngloGold announced a drop in gold production.

Official bullion sales by central banks rose five percent to 556 tonnes with heavy selling seen during the fourth quarter when prices reached highs. Lending, by contrast, fell by 266 tonnes largely due to low lease rates.

Black Blade: The lease is essentially the same as a sale. Just that it is subsidized by the bank because they will likely never see that gold again except in rare cases as hedged producers deliver to cover positions. So 266 tons less to market vs. a little less than 28 tons more sold by central banks (most likely bought by another central bank in the usual shell game of shifting gold reserves – who knows, maybe to China which bought over 100 tons in two months time). Central bank sales are meaningless as it rarely if ever makes it to the open market. Remember that central banks had about 32,000 tons in reserve about 20 years ago and still have 32,000 tons in reserve today. What has been lent out is gone, likely never to see the bank vault again. Someone is on the hook and as the POG rises the lenders get ever more nervous whether the loan is paid back in gold or currency.

On the demand side, GFMS reported that total fabrication declined almost 10 percent year-on-year to 3,175 tonnes in 2002, mainly due to an 11 percent slump in jewellery offtake. Jewellery fabrication in 2002 fell to 2,689 tonnes, its lowest since 1994, because of slowing global economic growth, political and economic uncertainties such as the Iraqi crisis and changing consumer expenditure patterns. "The decline was yet steeper at 17 percent on the basis of fabrication excluding scrap," GFMS said.

Black Blade: Gold production is declining and that will accelerate quite rapidly over the next five years. Investment demand is rising rapidly in central bank buying and investor purchases. Jewelry demand remains strong where high-grade jewelry is an investment (Asia, Middle East, and parts of Africa). Where jewelry is a little gold mixed with a lot of pot metal no one really cares as it is just adulterated junk at that point. The Jewelry industry in the west only has itself to blame for selling crap at stratospheric prices.

Net outstanding producer hedge positions accelerated sharply last year to 423 tonnes from 151 tonnes in 2001 as miners' price expectations rose, shareholders pressured company boards to reduce their hedge books and as the contango stayed weak.

Black Blade: Share prices of the mega-hedgers have suffered greatly and the shareholders are pissed when they see the like of Goldcorp, Glamis, Harmony, Gold Fields, etc. blow away the likes of Barrick, Placer, etc. The heat is on as shareholders vote with their wallets and as a result the hedgers have seen the light – sort of, forward selling is at a near standstill and current positions are being unwound. Mega-hedger AngloGold has been aggressively unwinding their hedgebook and the rise in the share price has been well worth the decision. Barrick and Placer have recently been unwinding positions though less aggressively. As gold is in a primary long-term bull market and interest rates hit rock bottom, the "Gold Carry Trade" is dead and buried with a stake driven through its heart. Also, with the "official" inflation rate at about 3% (real inflation rate somewhat higher) and the short-term interest rate at about 1.25%, the "real rate" is negative. In other words one is "paid" to borrow and buy hard assets.

slingshotBashing the Silverbug#10119504/10/03; 23:47:34

Trash metal for some,yet I have found that buying of silver (at least in my side of town) is on the rise. The premiums also have increased. Sucker born every minute and every two minutes taken? The silver eagle has paved the way to the recognition of silver bullion and even to the buying of 10 oz and 100 oz bars. Oh, those wonderful Peace and Morgan dollars set aside for 20 years. Has not gold done the same? Both being at bargain prices. I have noticed that some here at the forum purchase large amounts which I can say for myself I can not purchase. When gold climbs in price the demand for silver will increase because of the fear factor and gold being unobtainable for Joe Sixpack.

Maybe a better debate would be who is apt to buy silver and who would buy gold. Would this not cut across the fundametals of supply and demand?


mikalU.S. debt carries war stigma#10119604/10/03; 23:51:13

By: Ed Henry
We all hope that weapons of mass destruction, even nuclear arsenals, will be found in Iraq without the trademarks of American manufacturers and that Hans Blix and his crew will be both surprised and agree that these weapons and programs originated in Iraq.
We all hope that there will be irrefutable and incontrovertible proof that these bio-chemical and nuclear weapons were not planted there by American or coalition forces.
We all hope that the elusive mobile laboratories for the development of chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction will all be taken off Iraqi super highways and byways and placed in a huge parking lot for the entire world to examine.
We all hope that the Iraqi people will finally come to their senses and realize that twelve years of embargo, bombing, and occasionally holding back humanitarian aid from the UN food for oil program was really for their own good. Our own strongest coalition ally, Tony Blair, says that 400,000 Iraqi children have died of malnutrition in the past five years while others put the estimate at 500,000 in the past twelve years.
We all hope that the stories appearing in foreign news about the U.S. use of cluster bombs on Iraqi cities, in violation of the Geneva Convention, and the resultant death and injury of thousands of Iraqi men, women, and children are false.
We all hope that Donald Rumsfeld has been telling us the truth when he claims that American "smart bombs" are directed with great precision at Iraq's military headquarters and Saddam's strongholds with only an occasional mishap like the one dropped on a Kuwait shopping center or a couple of Baghdad neighborhoods where Saddam might have been or the hotel where foreign correspondents were killed. Every war has collateral damage.
We all hope that the eighty to ninety-seven percent of the people in countries throughout the world who are against this war, even within our coalition allies England, Spain, and Australia, will change their minds once victory is assured and again think of us as "the good guys."
We all hope that the world's greatest superpower is not going to use this small nation as a base of military operation from which to wage war against every other nation in the Islamic world under the same pretext of "first strike" against anyone that might harm us.
But most of all, we hope that the other nations of the world will chip in to help us rebuild Iraq and provide humanitarian aid because, quite frankly, the American people are just about tapped out in taxes, subverted federal funds, and a horrendous national debt that we're laying at the feet of our children and grandchildren. (Download the free pamphlet "To The Moon, Alice")
"Published originally at : republication allowed with this notice and hyperlink intact."

mikalSars highlights need for domestic production#1011974/11/03; 00:10:47

By: Glenn R. Jackson -Excerpt:
"...Corporate America's mantra of exporting jobs and importing workers begins to show some serious problems with the assumptions that were made.
First assumption, that cheap labor is an untapped reliable resource in third world nations just waiting for Corporate America to exploit. A nation's cheap labor is cheap for a very good reason. All of the societal constructs, all the heavy lifting that has been done by the United States and other western nations to build a free and healthy society, are absent in the cheap labor nations. Hence third world nations are susceptible to a multitude of risk that Western nation's are not.
Second assumption, all of the risk associated with third world nations can be ameliorated with healthy doses of American capital investment. While infrastructure may be absent and can be bought, how do you buy protection from wars and pestilence? (Well through liberal uses of American tax dollars and the American military, but that is another story)
Third assumption, that national borders no longer matter. As this nation receives a flood of illegal and legal immigrants (projections call for 170 million more by 2050), and as this nation's elected officials and their bureaucratic worker bees ignore their collective responsibilities, the problems of the world will spread unchecked across America.
Final assumption, Corporate America is infallible. Half of Corporate America is in Washington DC asking for economic pump priming that comes from deficit spending, and the other half is begging for taxpayer funded bailouts. Of course even with their hands held out, CEO's make millions and seek millions more in bonuses. In the meantime a growing number of American taxpayers are finding themselves unemployed or underemployed, and tax revenues are shrinking..."

Black BladeAsian Markets Sink#1011984/11/03; 00:16:57

Asian market go negative. The Nikkei takes a hard hit as the local economy is in sharp decline, the insolvent banking sector poised for nationalization, and the government declaring the yen currency worthless and buying dollars in its place. It does not look good for Japan. Hong Kong's economy is under pressure as SARS fears are keeping consumers away from public places.

- Black Blade

Black BladeTokyo's Nikkei Ends at 20-Year Low#1011994/11/03; 00:34:00


TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese stocks thudded to a 20-year closing low on Friday, with Toyota Motor Corp and other blue chips slammed on concerns over pension fund selling and sluggish demand in the global economy.

Black Blade: And so it goes. One more log on the fire.

UsulWhy worry?#1012004/11/03; 00:51:57

"The quarter was a watershed for financial markets as equities and bonds increasingly focused on the chances for a second half recovery..."
- Standard Life Investments, Investment Review and Outlook, 2nd Quarter 2001

Don't worry, (goes the spin), the Fed will save us with the rate cut that finally works, the market has already hit THE bottom, all the rumoured cash waiting on the sidelines will come in, and the second half will finally be THE ONE.

Mr GreshamI wonder who's Kissinger now (Sorry, I know I've used that one before ;)#1012014/11/03; 04:15:31

The question I've been asking everyone all day is, "Do you really WANT to be part of an Empire?" and this excellent article put this capture of US policy in an even bigger timeframe than I'd been carrying. It has NOTHING to do with American patriotism, but with ideologues who've imported UN-American traditions and highjacked our military machine into its service.

Neo-British Imperialists

"Max Boot, a Russian émigré and former Wall Street Journal Editor who has emerged as a leading neo-imperialist ideologue, entitled his book "The Savage Wars of Peace." It is a polemic in favor of American neo-colonialism, modeled after Rupert Kipling's poem praising white racist imperialism, "The White Man's Burden."

"...The hero of the contemporary wave of neo-British U.S. imperialists is Winston Churchill. Mind you, not the old Churchill who resisted Hitler. But rather, the young Churchill who wrote ecstatically about people machine-gunning Africans in service of the British empire.

"Exhibiting an enthusiasm for British imperialism that would have disgusted American critics of British imperialism like Henry Clay, Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt, Max Boot has written:

"Afghanistan and other troubled lands today cry out for the sort of enlightened foreign administration once provided by self-confident Englishmen in jodhpurs and pith helmets."

Mr GreshamImperial Temptations#1012024/11/03; 04:31:11

"The National Interest" magazine with "EMPIRE" in big letters on cover. Saw this on a newsstand today at B&N, no time to read. Looks like some of the conservatives are all over this. Do they have any clout? I think they're fighting for their own political survival now, after being edged out by the neos.

Don't ever turn up your nose at going over stuff like this again, and again. Educating yourself politically is a lifetime's work.

I think it was Mundell (or was it FOA) who gave us the history of Rome as currency debasement throughout the Imperial period. They go hand in hand, along with massive internal corruption.

"Gentlemen, we give you a Republic -- if you can keep it!" -- Benjamin Franklin

GonlyoldAmeliorated Corn Flakes#1012034/11/03; 08:00:43

Thank you Mikal for increasing my vocabulary. Ameliorate, def: To make or grow better; to improve. I'm usualy amazed by the verbage on this site.

Makes me wonder. Why don't I see this as advertising on the box of corn flakes as in "New, ameliorated corn flakes? Or "New ameliorated GMO corn flakes. Just a thought.

CoBra(too)PPI#1012044/11/03; 08:24:24

Producer Price Index soared in March at 1.5% vs only 0.7% previous month - and the markets turning accordingly. If I got that right thats 18% on an annual basis.

Gold turned up real neat in the aftermath of this cold shower and the sweet tuning of consumer confidence before. Can u imagine a tapped out consumer, indebted to his eyeballs becoming confident? Scary thought!

BB's correct -get out of debt and load up on realyity - not the least on gold in your preferred form.

Cheers - cb2

TrurlHas anyone else seen this change to their credit card terms?#1012054/11/03; 10:20:44

My latest statement from a large credit card issuer is interesting in its implications. The added terms are,

"We reserve the right to electronically collect your eligible payments checks, at first presentment and any representment, from the bank account on which the check was drawn. Our receipt of your payment check is your authorization for us to collect the amount of the check electronically, or if needed by a draft drawn against the bank account. Checks will be collected electronically by sending the check amount along with the check, routing and account numbers to your bank. Your bank account may be debited as early as the same day we receive your payment. The original check will be destroyed and an image will be maintained in our records."


This is the latest in an amazing series of changes made to checking accounts over the last few years. Recall that now banks do not need to maintain any reserves against account balances earning interest. None. Zero. Can you say infinite leverage? Recall also that some years ago even non interest bearing accounts were modified so that the bank could sweep the unused balance, each day, into an interest earning, i.e. non reserve needing, account.

It looks like this latest change is designed to reduce the float by a day or so, since checks in most large cities clear overnight anyways.

What's most disturbing is the implication that anyone with your account number can help themselves to your account balance by saying in effect, "authorizing signature on file".

Now me, I keep a non interest earning checking account, so that they cannot force a seven day waiting period on my getting my money.

Now me, I keep a minimum balance in my checking account. Changes like this just reinforce *why*.

Sorry Black Blade, I agree with what you say about getting out of debt. But it's hard to pass up 1.9% fixed interest loans which I use to buy the heavy stuff.

P.S. If you really want to annoy your bank, use zeroxed blank checks. These don't have the magnetic ink. Just tell them you ran out …not investment advice

ge@ Aristotle#1012064/11/03; 10:46:50

Dear Sir;

I agree that "physical Gold is uniquely positioned to protect me from inevitable monetary failings". Many thinkers have warned us about the coming monetary failure. Recently, Marc Faber has written that, "In the next major conflict in the world, the derivatives market is most likely to cease to exist, since financial institutions throughout the world hold derivative positions. Therefore, if one major player somewhere in the world doesn't settle or fails altogether, a vicious chain reaction could follow, with the result that the markets will be closed." ( )

Assuming that we can survive through the bad times, the question becomes, "what kind of monetary structure should be constructed after this earthquake?". Obviously, Euro group has been thinking hard on this subject.

Advocates of Gold Standard propose to return to the precious metals standard as it had evolved before the First World War.

Your proposition (if I understand it correctly), is to substitute US Dollar with European Dollar, and continue with fiat money.

Gold as a contract unit of account, has been used successfully until 1914 (First War). Therefore it is not unworkable, however, it requires an international balance of power as a prerequisite. If US or EU manages to construct a world empire, the imperial fiat would dominate the world. No doubt about it. Till then, it is nice to dream about a gold standard…

Best Regards,

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Attention USAGOLD-CPM, Inc. valued clientele and visitors!#10120704/11/03; 11:20:24

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If you would like to receive this daily correspondence via electronic mail, please contact This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. to provide your name and preferred e-mail address.

If you are a current client of USAGOLD-CPM, Inc., this opportunity is especially important as you qualify to receive precedent notification of any special offers made by our firm, namely exclusive early access to our monthly buyers' groups and first notification of unique product availability.

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PS. You can always opt out again at any time you choose.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc....because you never know what tomorrow will bring...#10120804/11/03; 11:29:44

gold sovereigns
Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance and credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial asset which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.

ZhishengUp into the Close!#10120904/11/03; 11:30:48

Things are looking up (except for the dollar).
glennh10Gold vs. Silver#10121004/11/03; 11:41:24

Regarding all the recent debating between gold and silver, IMHO, it might just as well be about Exxon gas vs. Chevron. From the standpoint of fiat, there's no difference. Both gold and silver are precious metals, and they both enjoy historical as well as current significance as money. That's right. Money. Gold and silver are money - today. They were money in the past, and they will remain money in the future. They are also property, of course. There's not an adult person walking down the street today that fails to recognize the significance of gold and silver in the hand, that they are money, in a very fundamental sense. It's a historical fact; a fact that is barely shy of being innate to the human of the modern "civilized" era (post barter). It's a fact that doesn't have to be proven. It doesn't require definition or demonstration, or a rule of law. Truth stands on its own. On the contrary, like all lies, the lie of their irrelevance to money has required constant attempts at substantiation, manipulation, and diversion. The attention of the masses is diverted from the money issue by (1) proclamations, and, (2) a promise of potential riches to be had, given a little saavy, skill, and luck on the part of the individual, combined with systemic manipulation by the all-knowing FED; all clothed in the garb of legitimacy. Greed and necessity trump idealism. Classrooms teach, but, it's the brutality of the street where the learning actually happens. We are witnessing the decline of the great central bank experiment that began in 1913. Out of necessity, the people will turn to gold and silver soon enough. Because gold and silver are property, alone and on their own; and because they're Money. Please excuse the tirade.
Ag MountainYou have a LOT to learn, glennh10#10121104/11/03; 12:17:01

Your words sound good like a politician's, but also like a politician's there's not much substance behind them. It's easy to get away with saying superficial pleasantries when your audience doesn't know the depth of the matter. You can't get away with it here because most of us do. You should read the Gold Trail to open your eyes. You're not getting my vote. I hope you have enough gold to help you until the next election!
Daniel Druffglennh10#10121204/11/03; 12:35:19

(post barter).

glennh10 (04/11/03; 11:41:24MT - msg#: 101210)
Gold vs. Silver [The best I've read in a long time and there have been some excellent posts contributed to this forum. Many thanks, I look forward to your next tirade.]


Daniel DruffAB532#10121304/11/03; 12:39:22

have they killed it?

Sir Steady, I hope you're on the job,


a nation of oneTo Trurl (4/11/03; 10:20:44MT - msg#: 101205)#10121404/11/03; 12:45:35

"Has anyone else seen this change to their credit card terms?"

*** It comes under the heading, 'Loss of Individual Rights.' All banks employ some elements of dishonesty and thievery. I keep as few dollars in my accounts as possible. There is a neat solution to where you can keep your money without anyone stealing it. And there is never a good substitute for cash, if using cash is possible. I never write a check if I can pay in cash. You shouldn't have credit cards anyway. They're abusive. This is one reason why I think glennh10 may be right in some ways. Grown men almost have to realize -at some point- that real currency has benefits that credit and convenience lack. The only question is, "Where is that point?" Think about this: When you charge something, you have to provide information about yourself. Then, when the bill comes, you have to write a check, spend money on a stamp, and go to the post office. Time consuming. Later, you also have to reconcile the check with the bank's statement. More time. More work. That's five or six separate operations. When you pay in cash there's only one operation. And no information is given. That is why I believe it is only a matter of time until reasonably smart people -even those with only average intelligence- start figuring out significant ways to employ silver ounces and gold ounces to pay for ordinary purchases.

TownCrierEurosystem assets#10121504/11/03; 13:07:11

I have taken a moment to look at the consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem which was released mid-week detailing the latest quarterly revaluation of assets.

In the previous quarter the net position in foreign currency declined in value by 13.1 billion EUR as the dollar fell to 1.0487 per euro and the yen was valued at 124.39 per euro.

For the latest quarter revaluation (March 31) the net position in foreign currency declined in value by another 8.0 billion EUR as the dollar further fell to its latest revaluation value of 1.0895 per euro and the yen declined to 129.18 per euro.

The book value of the Eurosystem's foreign currency position now stands at a value of EUR 211.3 billion, nominally the lowest I have witnessed.

For any continuing foreign currency losses it is from the Eurosystem's massive gold assets that there is an avenue for compensation. Owing to recent price action as gold fell during the initiation of the Iraqi war, the market-based book value for Eurosystem gold dipped for this latest revalution to EUR 307.80 per ounce ($335.35), providing no such relief this time around. The value of gold and gold receivables stands at EUR 122.7 billion, down EUR 7.6 billion on the revaluation.

And onward we go, to bolster our own reserves, and to observe what transpires by June 30th, the next revaluation, and so on, and so on. Which asset would you count on for the long haul? My money is on the gold.

Call Centennial today to discuss a diversification strategy that is right for you.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...#10121604/11/03; 13:10:54

Q. How does USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals position itself among its competitors with regard to credibility, reputability and pricing?

MK. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals has always been considered one of the most reputable firms in the business and it's always been that way. We have placed literally thousands of ounces of gold with investors and our repeat business and referrals are both very strong. That doesn't happen unless you know what you are doing and your clients know that you know what you are doing. If I were to sum it up, I would say we combine the first rate services and research that you would expect from a very large firm with the favorable pricing you would expect from a smaller, client-conscious firm.

CytekBurning the Furniture - Sector#10121704/11/03; 13:28:51

World's Central Banks Cooking Their Books on Gold Reserves!

There is no source at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) or elsewhere that reveals central bank bullion held separately from the "Gold and gold receivables" category unless the central bank chooses to report it. In other words, the cbs shield this information from their respective publics and the World. It is the way they can sell their gold and still claim the sold gold as a "Receivable" even though the leased or swapped gold may no longer exist in their inventory.

The following links will take you to the IMF's member central bank reserves template:

The second link is to the Australian reserves page as an example. From theselinks you can obtain the total gold reserves for the various Western central banks. It is near 33,000 tonnes not including swaps and forward sales [Which total about 16,000 tonnes at the last BIS Triennial Report-2001]. A very good review of the whole central bank gold and gold derivative situation can be found at:

Claiming a gold swap or loan is a receivable when it has really been sold into the market subsequent to the lease is the method used by the majority of large central banks to shroud their gold transactions. The IMF's own auditors have objected to this ruse by refusing to classify gold loans
[Santiago 1999 Statistical Accounting Conference].

Burning the Furniture
The key macroeconomic principle at work is the sale of central bank gold to support weak currencies...burning furniture to stay economically warm. It is manifestly an unsustainable policy which can only end in a unique financial disaster.

Daniel DruffGold Shares Firming#10121804/11/03; 13:29:04

Are we getting the pre-gap signal in gold today? Is this finally it?

The time must come when the establishment will attempt to let bullion rise in an orderly way. If guys like Murphy etc. start screaming, "KILL KILL", the 'inevitable' will take-on a sinister appearance.

The Fed Experiment is a flop. We need a new financial system.


R PowellStrange day#10121904/11/03; 13:41:01

I just got in and checked MRCI's delayed day quotes. Stocks are down so I thought both the CBOE Volatility Index and the Bonds would be up. No sir, stocks, VIX, and bonds are all down. I find this unusual and somewhat ominous. Can anyone tell me if all of these have been down most of the day? Also, how fairs the volume on the Cow and Nasdoggie today?? Thanks.
Friday again already...
Happy Weekend !!!

Daniel Drufftest#10122004/11/03; 13:54:16

Fokus: Indizes

Daniel Drufftest 2#10122104/11/03; 13:56:33

nice week
Black BladeEconomy can't shake weakness#10122204/11/03; 14:45:51


The march on Baghdad chipped at retail sales last month, but a later Easter, cooler weather and concerns about the economy are what really kept consumers from spending. Easter fell on March 31 last year, making for difficult retail comparisons to last month. Retailers expect sales of Easter clothing and other goods to be reflected closer to the holiday, April 20.

Jobless claims are at recession levels, and consumer confidence is low. Disposable income is falling, and shoppers are shifting to plastic, despite increased credit card delinquencies. Delinquencies have reached record highs for the past six months, according to Gregory Weldon, president of Weldon Financial.

Putting more money in consumers' pockets will help stimulate the economy, according to analysis by the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal think tank in Washington. "We're not going to see a big surge in store sales until we get income growth restored," said Larry Mishel, president of the Institute. "And that's not going to happen anytime soon."

Black Blade: I can just see it now, the economy suffers due to the "Easter Effect". Hmmm…

Black BladeInvest Firm Sues Citibank, Smith Barney Over Enron Bonds #10122304/11/03; 15:01:58


WEST CHESTER, Pa. (AP)--An investment services company has sued Citibank and brokerage house Salomon Smith Barney, alleging the firms fraudulently sold it $ 70 million of worthless Enron Corp. bonds. The Vanguard Group's (X.VGI) lawsuit describes a circular investment "scheme" in which Citibank (C) and Salomon Smith Barney circulated Enron (ENRNQ) financial statements that Vanguard claims were false and misleading. Vanguard's mutual funds were duped into buying the bonds through "false and misleading" financial statements in which Citibank failed to disclose Enron's financial situation and its own role in the deals, the lawsuit alleges. Vanguard attorney Pauline C. Scalvino said the lawsuit followed the disclosure of Enron's relationship with Citibank and Salomon Smith Barney during U.S. Senate hearings on Enron over the last year.

Black Blade: This just gets better all the time. No mention of JP Morgan Chase's role, but then they probably did not deal with Vanguard. This is just the beginning of a long series of lawsuits that will hammer away at Citibank and JP Morgan Chase over the next few years. The word is several other investment and fund companies (including Fidelity and Janus) are considering doing the same.

steadynevadas silver bill!#10122404/11/03; 15:19:40

the bill died in committie, surprise surprise surprise. oh well . looks like it will be up to idaho!
Cometosedollar vs indexes / dollar vs interest rates/ dollar vs GOLD#10122504/11/03; 16:35:36

You have to read this .....efficient , concise , and delivered with surgical precision on a silver pladder for your veiwing pleasure
Adam Hamilton.....nails it...../ it's not oversimplified
it's just simple and he makes it pretty plain and has the charts to document his case for GOLD .....being the safest place in the current trends and context globally...out into 2007

Clink!Hamilton #10122604/11/03; 17:03:51

What you say is perfectly true, Sir Cometose, (indeed it was reading his articles which first switched me on to gold) but I fear you need to be more politically correct with the URL......
The Invisible HandClink?#10122704/11/03; 18:06:25

Since when is gold politically correct?
Paper AvalancheTick, tock...#10122804/11/03; 18:07:26

War appears to be infectous. Who are we now to chide another sovereign nation for taking pre-emptive action to ensure its own security.


Paper AvalancheI didn't think that looked correct.....#10122904/11/03; 18:10:46

I just went to an online dictionary and realize that infectous should be spelled "infectious."


R PowellCometose and Clink#10123004/11/03; 18:11:50

Shall we try for the third link?
Clink!@ Rich#10123104/11/03; 19:18:23

And raise you one !
Paper Avalanche@ Ari - the silver dirahm#10123204/11/03; 20:29:06

Hey big guy! I am still eagerly awaiting your your take on the silver dirahm.

Take care.


Daniel DruffAg Mountain#10123304/11/03; 20:32:44

Ag Mountain (04/11/03; 12:17:01MT - msg#: 101211)
You have a LOT to learn, glennh10
Your words sound good like a politician's, but also like a politician's there's not much substance behind them. It's easy to get away with saying superficial pleasantries when your audience doesn't know the depth of the matter.

Ag Mountain, what a terrible insult to the audience of USAGold...who has the most sophisticated and generally polite group of posters I've yet to see. As far as I'm concerned you have thrown down the gauntlet! Defend yourself, you scamp.

I suspect a simply query will dispatch you in short order...just where is the most honorable Sir glennh10 lacking in substance?

To refresh your memory:

glennh10 (04/11/03; 11:41:24MT - msg#: 101210)
Gold vs. Silver
Regarding all the recent debating between gold and silver, IMHO, it might just as well be about Exxon gas vs. Chevron. From the standpoint of fiat, there's no difference. Both gold and silver are precious metals, and they both enjoy historical as well as current significance as money. That's right. Money. Gold and silver are money - today. They were money in the past, and they will remain money in the future. They are also property, of course. There's not an adult person walking down the street today that fails to recognize the significance of gold and silver in the hand, that they are money, in a very fundamental sense. It's a historical fact; a fact that is barely shy of being innate to the human of the modern "civilized" era (post barter). It's a fact that doesn't have to be proven. It doesn't require definition or demonstration, or a rule of law. Truth stands on its own. On the contrary, like all lies, the lie of their irrelevance to money has required constant attempts at substantiation, manipulation, and diversion. The attention of the masses is diverted from the money issue by (1) proclamations, and, (2) a promise of potential riches to be had, given a little saavy, skill, and luck on the part of the individual, combined with systemic manipulation by the all-knowing FED; all clothed in the garb of legitimacy. Greed and necessity trump idealism. Classrooms teach, but, it's the brutality of the street where the learning actually happens. We are witnessing the decline of the great central bank experiment that began in 1913. Out of necessity, the people will turn to gold and silver soon enough. Because gold and silver are property, alone and on their own; and because they're Money. Please excuse the tirade.


A brilliant and thought provoking post, imho. DEFEND YOURSELF...if you dare.


steadythe silver dirham#10123404/11/03; 20:50:39

who says the silver dirham will be available this year?
i have not seen that any where in print>
where can i buy one?

Ag MountainIn-Denial Druff#10123504/11/03; 21:08:26

You should have read farther before you came riding in to the rescue of a group of smart folks here who didn't need rescuing on my account. You're right I said "It's easy to get away with saying superficial pleasantries when your audience doesn't know the depth of the matter."

Next thing I said was "You can't get away with it here because most of us do." And most of us do, with some exceptions like yourself.

Don't ask me to pick the one spot where it's weak because the whole thing weaves back and forth all over itself with a bad thread. You don't undstand anything you've read at the Gold Trail so you should read it again until you do. Why should I reinvent the wheel, so you can coast? Try harder next time. Nothing very important is ever easy.

Black BladeMarket Wrap Up – Hartman#10123604/11/03; 21:37:36


Oil, Silver and Gold

Crude oil began the day today in negative territory with an intra-day low of $27.06 per barrel but reversed to close near the highs at $28.14. Remember, victory in Iraq is supposed to mean lower oil prices. I don't think it's all over yet. I fully expect oil to climb back over $30 per barrel. The reason is not so much that oil is getting more expensive, but rather that the U.S. dollar is in decline, which means it is losing its purchasing power. You can call it currency devaluation, or you can errantly call it inflation. Either way you slice it, the dollar doesn't buy as much as it did a year ago, and I completely expect that trend to continue.

The turnaround in oil prices today had a positive effect in the precious metals arena. For the week, silver has remained in a very tight trading range. Last Friday silver closed at $4.41 per ounce, traded this week between $4.43 and $4.49, and closed at $4.48. This appears to be a solid base that will support a shot through the $4.50 barrier next week. Gold also traded in a tight range from $322.10 to $327.90, with the close today at $327.20. Earlier in the week, $324.00 seemed to be the upper limit until it was broken on Wednesday when the bar was raised to $327.00. I watched it get stuffed every time it hit $327.00 until late in the day today, and was glad to see the close above $327. With some follow-through next week, it will be nice to put this correction behind us. Now that the weaker hands have left the precious metals sector, we should be clear to go higher. The strong hands are accumulating for the next run, and won't be shaken out easily. The short interests have been sitting on silver at $4.50 and gold at $327.00, but it shouldn't be long before the fundamentals overwhelm the paper shorts.

The only area that I have softened my stance is in regards to stocks. In my brain they are overvalued, but that really doesn't matter if everyone wants to jump in and go long for a while. I still think it's too risky except for very specific sectors. I have reduced my overall short exposure and increased my allocation to precious metals and foreign currencies. In light of the inflationary stance that the Fed has taken, I believe we will be challenged with inflationary pressures six to twelve months out. They will keep the money spigot wide open to continue flooding our system with liquidity until we get out of this mess. It sure looks like they would like to inflate the rampant debt loads into obscurity.

Black Blade: It was an interesting pre-war run and pre-war collapse in the gold market as novice investors and fund managers tried to outwit each other by "front running" the market using Gulf War I as their playbook. Finally it is good to see the trash and deadwood leave this market so that serious investors can focus on what really matters in this long-term bull market in precious metals. Most sectors in the equities markets are grossly overvalued and become more overvalued each day as earnings decline. The bond markets just have about run out of steam and the only hope is that the Fed will further slash the measly 1.25% rate. There is certainly to motivation for investors to seeks gains from such low yields in bonds and the "junk bond" (an appropriate name) market is just too risky given the current economy with rising bankruptcies and rising number of credit downgrades. The US dollar is still about 20% (or more) overvalued. The "Currency War" continues with amazing acceleration (particularly in regard to the Japanese Ministry of Finance intervention to prop up the US dollar and scuttling of the Yen). It is coming close to crunch time. The Fed will have to speed up "money creation" and fire up the printing presses to stimulate the economy in the face of falling production, less consumer spending, and rising unemployment. Precious metal portfolio insurance is ever more important now. Even if somehow the US can extricate itself from a severe economic decline (I don't see how), precious metals are selling at a sharp discount and as tangible assets have very little downside risk at current prices. "Interesting Times"

Daniel DruffAg Mountain#10123704/11/03; 21:58:12

(Yesterday's Discussion.)

Ag Mountain (04/11/03; 21:08:26MT - msg#: 101235)
In-Denial Druff

Don't ask me to pick the one spot where it's weak because the whole thing weaves back and forth all over itself with a bad thread. You don't undstand anything you've read at the Gold Trail so you should read it again until you do. Why should I reinvent the wheel, so you can coast? Try harder next time. Nothing very important is ever easy.

Let me refresh your memory, one more time:

glennh10 (04/11/03; 11:41:24MT - msg#: 101210)
Gold vs. Silver
Regarding all the recent debating between gold and silver, IMHO, it might just as well be about Exxon gas vs. Chevron. From the standpoint of fiat, there's no difference. Both gold and silver are precious metals, and they both enjoy historical as well as current significance as money. That's right. Money. Gold and silver are money - today. They were money in the past, and they will remain money in the future. They are also property, of course. There's not an adult person walking down the street today that fails to recognize the significance of gold and silver in the hand, that they are money, in a very fundamental sense. It's a historical fact; a fact that is barely shy of being innate to the human of the modern "civilized" era (post barter). It's a fact that doesn't have to be proven. It doesn't require definition or demonstration, or a rule of law. Truth stands on its own. On the contrary, like all lies, the lie of their irrelevance to money has required constant attempts at substantiation, manipulation, and diversion. The attention of the masses is diverted from the money issue by (1) proclamations, and, (2) a promise of potential riches to be had, given a little saavy, skill, and luck on the part of the individual, combined with systemic manipulation by the all-knowing FED; all clothed in the garb of legitimacy. Greed and necessity trump idealism. Classrooms teach, but, it's the brutality of the street where the learning actually happens. We are witnessing the decline of the great central bank experiment that began in 1913. Out of necessity, the people will turn to gold and silver soon enough. Because gold and silver are property, alone and on their own; and because they're Money. Please excuse the tirade.

Ag Mountain, certainly the vast truths presented along the Gold Trail must have left an impression or two which you might deign to share inorder to support your rudeness. Let me help you...

Let's examine the following:

"Both gold and silver are precious metals, and they both enjoy historical as well as current significance as money. That's right. Money. Gold and silver are money - today. They were money in the past, and they will remain money in the future. They are also property, of course. There's not an adult person walking down the street today that fails to recognize the significance of gold and silver in the hand, that they are money, in a very fundamental sense. It's a historical fact; a fact that is barely shy of being innate to the human of the modern "civilized" era (post barter)." glennh10

BRILLIANT...truthful in every respect contrary to the very limited vision, I'm sorry to say, of Aristotle, who fortunately is exceedingly advanced in thinking than you.

Your opinions are baseless and worse than than, they are boring.

Redeem yourself, you lout, prove your narrow minded blather with quotations of those whose shoes you are unworthy to clean.


Daniel DruffAg Mountain#10123804/11/03; 22:21:44

I should have said,...

BRILLIANT...truthful in every respect contrary to the very limited vision, I'm sorry to say, of Aristotle, who fortunately is exceedingly MORE advanced in thinking than you.


Black BladePressure is on gas prices - Low supplies mean costs could spike this summer#10123904/11/03; 22:35:32


New forecasts are suggesting that no one is getting a break on natural gas prices over the summer, as supplies remain unusually low. Natural-gas prices surged on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Thursday, after a new report showed storage levels of the commodity dropped again last week, defying expectations. The U.S. department of energy's weekly storage report showed stocks dropped by nine billion cubic feet (bcf), instead of the expected rise of 16 bcf. "It was definitely a surprise," said Martin King, an analyst at FirstEnergy Capital Corp. in Calgary. "We aren't seeing demand being beaten down."

"Stocks are at least 300 bcf below the comfort level for this time of year," said Calgary energy consultant Len Coad of LCA Research. "If we get weather at or above normal for the summer, it will mean more pressure on gas supplies." Observers are speculating that gas prices could remain at or above current levels for the remainder of the summer after reaching near-record highs over the winter. "We could see gas at $10 US if there's a heat wave," said Peter Linder, an analyst with the DeltaOne Energy Fund in Calgary. Prices are high as demand for natural gas remains strong while producers have been unable to boost supplies. Canadian supplies could become even tighter as exploration drilling falls out of favour in Western Canada.

Black Blade: The focus has been on the POO as the Iraq War winds down. However, NatGas is domestically produced and few users can switch to cheaper fuel. Older dual fuel power facilities have been decommissioned and almost all new power generation is NatGas-fired due to clean air restrictions and the quicker permitting process for NatGas power plant construction. The projected decline in NatGas production this year looks to exceed the 2.5% decline expected. We are certain to see very tight supply over the next two years as drill rig counts remain very low. Hopefully a very sharp decline in economic activity and a deepening economic recession can reduce demand enough to stretch supply through the next couple of years. This is injection season now and so far we have had a minor injection of 37 bcf followed by last week's draw of -9 bcf. Accuweather has predicted a colder April so that should keep injections low or maybe even result in another draw from storage. We are "running out of daylight" for injection and are on course for another severe energy crisis. Forget oil and think electricity. Electricity is what powers the US industrial economy, the "new economy", homes and businesses. NatGas feedstock is necessary for fertilizers for agriculture and the chemical industry. At current use and drop in production we will fall short in mid-winter this year. The higher energy costs will kill any slim chance of economic recovery.

mikal@BlackBlade#10124004/11/03; 22:41:49

Re: "...precious metals are selling at a sharp discount and as tangible assets..."
Good analysis and yes PM's are a bargain for MANY reasons. But glenn11h posted that most people on the street see silver as money, where really, one of the reasons I hold PM's is the majority's ignorance. People commonly saw Susan B. Anthony and Sacagawea coins as silver & gold respectively. Stock ownership during 20th century crashes was in a decided minority of households. But today, equities are held by a vast majority of households and basic and sensible economics and investing is not taught as well. Some of the kinder reactions I receive on the street and from relatives regarding PM's are "it's jewelry", "it's that high-class junk", "it's antique", "it's too flashy", "it's old-fashioned", "it's for girls", "it's for old ladies" and "it's too expensive"!

Black BladeThe News We Kept to Ourselves#10124104/11/03; 22:45:42


ATLANTA — Over the last dozen years I made 13 trips to Baghdad to lobby the government to keep CNN's Baghdad bureau open and to arrange interviews with Iraqi leaders. Each time I visited, I became more distressed by what I saw and heard — awful things that could not be reported because doing so would have jeopardized the lives of Iraqis, particularly those on our Baghdad staff. Working for a foreign news organization provided Iraqi citizens no protection. The secret police terrorized Iraqis working for international press services who were courageous enough to try to provide accurate reporting. Some vanished, never to be heard from again. Others disappeared and then surfaced later with whispered tales of being hauled off and tortured in unimaginable ways. Obviously, other news organizations were in the same bind we were when it came to reporting on their own workers.

We also had to worry that our reporting might endanger Iraqis not on our payroll. I knew that CNN could not report that Saddam Hussein's eldest son, Uday, told me in 1995 that he intended to assassinate two of his brothers-in-law who had defected and also the man giving them asylum, King Hussein of Jordan. If we had gone with the story, I was sure he would have responded by killing the Iraqi translator who was the only other participant in the meeting. After all, secret police thugs brutalized even senior officials of the Information Ministry, just to keep them in line (one such official has long been missing all his fingernails). Still, I felt I had a moral obligation to warn Jordan's monarch, and I did so the next day. King Hussein dismissed the threat as a madman's rant. A few months later Uday lured the brothers-in-law back to Baghdad; they were soon killed.

I came to know several Iraqi officials well enough that they confided in me that Saddam Hussein was a maniac who had to be removed. One Foreign Ministry officer told me of a colleague who, finding out his brother had been executed by the regime, was forced, as a test of loyalty, to write a letter of congratulations on the act to Saddam Hussein. An aide to Uday once told me why he had no front teeth: henchmen had ripped them out with pliers and told him never to wear dentures, so he would always remember the price to be paid for upsetting his boss. Again, we could not broadcast anything these men said to us.

I felt awful having these stories bottled up inside me. Now that Saddam Hussein's regime is gone, I suspect we will hear many, many more gut-wrenching tales from Iraqis about the decades of torment. At last, these stories can be told freely.

Eason Jordan is chief news executive at CNN.

Black Blade: There have been several such stories coming to light. Even some stories of "Human Shields" (AKA "Darwin Award Candidates") who left soon after arriving in Baghdad and hearing tales from Iraqis who said that they hoped there would be a war. It should be "interesting".

Black BladeMikal#10124204/11/03; 22:55:59

I agree that most people today are not to bright when it comes to investing. I was lucky enough to play off of the "New Economy" and get out in early 2000. I also slowly accumulated bargains like precious metals and very select shares in energy (mostly high yielding trusts and LPs). When people moan about their losses in the stock market and their shrinking 401K retirement plans I just remark "yeah it was so obvious what was going to happen that I switched to gold and energy". Amazingly even today most of them say much the same thing as you mentioned. I then say "well I have no losses on my investments and my IRA is going strong". Hopefully they get the point, but I fear that they have been well trained by "modern thinking" and gullible to the harpings of the carnival barkers on CNBC.

- Black Blade

Mr GreshamGold vs. Silver?#10124304/11/03; 23:11:08

In a word: Diversification.

Tastes great! Less filling!

Big-Enders vs. Little-Enders? Something to fill in the time here, while we're waiting. Waiting for who? Why, we're waiting for ---

My advice: Rest up the night before you have to move your silver. Do yoga stretches; eat a hearty breakfast. Book appointment with a massage therapist for the next day. Ice sore muscles...

HKExpatLong Time Lurker#10124404/12/03; 07:01:45

Been hiding in the electronic shadows for a long time. Greetings all.Since the late 90's I've been perusing the output of Ted Butler , Dave Morgan , the disappearing Chapman , Murphy etc and I've learnt a lot.Also taken heed and acted ,along with friends of mine.Thought I'd share something I've learnt.Be very carefull as to where you purchase and store bullion.Some time ago I approached a bank in Hong Kong - Bank of China branch in Central-re-the purchase of silver bullion.Not being a Chinese national I was told that I'd have to use a proxy,which I did.I stored the bullion in safety deposit boxes in the bank and just to be sure I kept the keys.Well , after a while the bank staff broke open nine of my safety deposit boxes.The proxy proceeded to clean them all out and sell the bullion straight back to the bank staff , pocketed the money and ran.The Hong Kong police were called in by myself ,arrested the proxy and threw him into prison.He's now doing a long stretch.Nothing was ever recovered so I've paid huge school fees.The local constabulary , however , could or would go no further and communicated their apologies to myself in this regard.All blame was put conveniently on the proxy , and the ten ton elephant in the living room was studiously ignored by all as any further moves were " difficult" and "sensitive".
So , look at geographical / political jurisdiction very carefully.
And , look at the institution you are dealing with very carefully.Are there safe , standardised procedures.Does the institution deal honestly,ethically and fairly with locals and foreign investors.Is there adequate supervision of staff.Is there a culture of integrity within the institution.Is there effective rule of law in that particular area.Is there an effective policing body within that industry etc.

GoldnSilver2002If you missed the last wave,you were lucky.#10124504/12/03; 08:10:55

Well if you missed the last wave in gold you were lucky.Most gold analysts will have a hard time on the next one.The impression is war over,gold surge is over, that was it.Those in the know simply start now.390 in asia was the proof the gold bull was on.Gold may dip a bit but the smart ones are buying now,knowing full well the shares did not have their run last time.The shares didnt respond because they knew,gold would get hit down and most held on too long,me included ;)Good luck to all the gold analysts,you were all wrong.If you want security,buy physical now its a steal, the shares are a bargain again too!Next stop 354,here we go again.Iraq was a nice sideshow but nothing has changed.People cant spend what they dont have,especially with all the none existent inflation.This is simple math,we are tapped out,recovery from where?3rd mortgages?The longterm outlook remains gold up with wild volatility.Consumer down and out for the count.
a nation of oneTo HKExpat (04/12/03; 07:01:45MT - msg#: 101244)#10124604/12/03; 08:19:14

Interesting information. Can't help but wonder about the extent to which genes are responsible. But maybe it is the case that all bankers are fundamentally subject to the same emotional and intellectual forces, it just being that the way they respond to them is better developed in some. Still, it would appear that a banker's motive in honoring the trust given him, by not plundering his customers' wealth, is the same in all instances: That the banker would lose the confidence of his clients and potential clients, nothing more. Perhaps I am wrong about this. If so, maybe someone will specifically point it out to me. A banker who has some different motive would be able to state it. Until then I am stuck with my present perception. A lot in our civilization depends on confidence that people have in each other, and when that confidence is breached, it becomes more difficult to distinguish ourselves from the other animals. Any box that can be opened by someone other than myself -no matter how noble or 'necessary' the reason- is not something that I need. Certainly I am not the only one who feels this way. And so it suprises me that bankers do not realize that they therefore have a legitimate business interest in disenabling all government bodies from being able to examine or control what may be in such boxes. These types of conflicts between people's desires and needs, and the desires and needs of those who seek to govern, are sometimes mutually exclusive and cannot be resolved entirely to the satisfaction of either. Gold helps us in this problem by making it necessary for human beings to try and work these things out in amicable ways. Ultimately humans will do this. There can be no other outcome that I know of.
TopazHK Expat, G&S#10124704/12/03; 08:46:47

That was a sad tale HK, my sympathies...
G&S...dunno about another run @$354 just yet, You said it inflation, and with Oil coming off, this MAY be sufficient reason for further S/T downside.
Euro/PoG is the key imo. IT's been averaging 320 until recently and I'd bet we'll see it there again shortly...may be 320E-354$...but then again the 6% premium E/D is disinflating Euroland moreso.
Odd Bond behaviour on Friday could be indicating $ strength next week (vis Euro) and a 310-320 parity price could still be on the cards...if those pesky DOW components can just eke out some EARNINGS!

R PowellToo Cool to talk to the likes of you#10124804/12/03; 09:26:20

Ag Mountain: your words from yesterday...

Ag Mountain (04/11/03; 21:08:26MT - msg#: 101235)
In-Denial Druff
You should have read farther before you came riding in to the rescue of a group of smart folks here who didn't need rescuing on my account. You're right I said "It's easy to get away with saying superficial pleasantries when your audience doesn't know the depth of the matter."

Next thing I said was "You can't get away with it here because most of us do." And most of us do, with some exceptions like yourself.

Don't ask me to pick the one spot where it's weak because the whole thing weaves back and forth all over itself with a bad thread. You don't undstand anything you've read at the Gold Trail so you should read it again until you do. Why should I reinvent the wheel, so you can coast? Try harder next time. Nothing very important is ever easy.

My thoughts...
Most of my generation and probably those before and after remember our high school days fondly but there was always that too-cool group, the "in-crowd" that walked about pretending to be so much coolier than everyone else. Bob Dylan described them as those "who try to hide what they don't know to begin with."

Your 101235 post reminds me of those pompous, over inflated "in crowd" egos. It is self righteous claptrap delivered with a holier than thou attitude exuding that same old pretension of "I know what you don't."

You've outdone yourself but further insulting us that because you judge us either too ignorant to understand or too lazy to study, therefore you are somehow above us and exempt from answering the original question put before you. Recall please that that original request was for an explanation of why you flamed an earlier post.

Either add me to your list of stupid, uncool people OR explain yourself. If you'd rather just keep going and ignore my existence since I'm obviously not cool and part of the Trail in-crowd, suit yourself. I will suffer no lose.

CoBra(too)Weak Economy here to stay!#10124904/12/03; 10:45:53

Evermore economists are coming around to see the reality, that real growth can not ever be sustained by consumption and the printing press. The FED's emergency - are just that - Emergency! Once the IR tools are nearly exhausted, other measures - read (dirty) tricks - will not effect any turnaround, let alone sustainable growth.

The Austrian Economists have always stipulated that capital investment, the only way to sustained long term growth has to come from private savings, which means consumption renunciation. It was the advent of the Keynesians (pro-)claiming the easy way out, including big government, deficit spending and all the rest of the unsound foundations in all walks of life we have to suffer now as a consequence.

The pyramiding problems now acutely visible in the monetary and financial structures will always lead to retrenchment. The farther the delusion of a monetary system, based on debt has worked its way down to the already maxxed out (end-)consumer the more the eventual return to reality will hur and the longer it will take to correct the dis-equilibria and mis-allocations of capital built up during the illusion of boom times.

Even George Soros said yesterday in an interview with an Austrian paper that he expects a recessionary scenario not ending before 2010 -12.

And finally, as the war for Iraqi freedom has ostensibly run its course - the markets luke warm reaction may be the harbinger of reality setting in.

Reality means the US is not only overstretched militarily, economically, fiscally and monetarily - it also has lost credence in ever growing parts of the world.

Protect yourself from the outfall of all above - and hibernate in the coming Kontratieff Winter by stock up on every means of survival and make the real money of our forbears the means of your financial survival!


PS: Hey, Rich - seems we all got a bout of Dandruff - Just brush it off and look for reverse "Head & Shoulders" formations ... Cheers from your Austrian.

Cometoseoil#10125004/12/03; 10:46:02

It is interesting in light of the Post of Another and Friend of Another to look at the relationship of Oil and GOLD in the decade of the 70's .......
Many may believe that these are unrelated events .......however the guidance of Another and Friend of Another indicates that they (Opec )have their own agenda and Cartel that bears out a distinctive link between Oil and GOld......The press didn't do much coverage on it but there were several (3) refinery explosions in a 2-3 year period in the most recent 5 year period ; Argentina had a failed coup attempt and subsequently went completely off line....then NIGERIA....THIS oil thing is not may just be getting started.... Look at a chart of the OIL in the 70/s and then GOlD. The embargo started and got going long before the Gold situation surfaced..... this time is different because the stakes are higher and there are more players.....Increased polarization is going to occure because of this Iraq thing.....more ISLAMIC cohesion behind the dinar.... 1 billion strong......and now CHINA and JAPAN .
THe Japanese Housewife will be a continual Watchman on the Financial WALL sounding the alarm.....that eventually will be heard round the world....WE live in a GLOBAL MARKET now connected to INTERENET INFORMED PUBLIC.....

However for RIGHT NOW , we got Iraqui oil.........what else did we get????????????????????Have to wait till tomorrow to find out this web is spun into an intriquite weave with many intersting turns.....

Intersting article this week on Saudi Arabia getting a free pass because of thier trillions in our markets....maybe we should go in there. Those trillions are insurance....we probably won't go into the house of Saud.... what a dent some of those trillions will make in the GOld Market....and the Silver Markets.....hmmm....

Don't hear much about the Republican Guard ....I thought there were a lot more of them than what is apparent on TV coverage .....wonder where they went?????Wonder where Sadaam went.....In retrospect ..considering what happened last week ,,,,you just have to wonder why they called up 100,000 more troops....... more fireworks sure to follow....... more war perhaps in a new prospect...... more distraction.....more market palpitations.....and electro shock treatment to the Patient on the table in the Emergency room.....
Heard yesterday , Russians running war games in Indian Ocean with the Indians to whom they have been offloading much of their weaponry .....wonder if Korea is nearby . Heard a rumor....Korea wants to Back Iran in the next skirmish with TROOPS>.....Get enough resisitance in their body bags begin coming home will start having a field day with the stuff...George may remake the look of the Middle East and may affect a change in history....
but it better look perfect while it's happening .....
or it will further tarnish our image globally and
who is going to pay for this venture.......
is this also part of our campaign contribution to get him reelected......sounds like a real keynesian appraoch to politics .....

....."doesn't matter whether we win or lose
it's who pays for the game of greed the big boys choose"

THe further down in the pot you go to stir .....the fishier it smells....

WHat is on the agenda for tomorrow.........
.................will be revealed to you in the media in
due time......your future the WORLD ACCORDING TO ?????????????????????????????????WHO IS WRITING THE SCRIPT??????????????????
You write your script and they write theirs......

....and three lepers sat at the gate of the city and reasoned one with another ....WHY SIT WE HERE UNTIL WE DIE..
if go into the city we die ...if we stay here we die ( for the city was besieged by the Syrian army and there was a famine....
And GOD sent delusion into the camp of the Syrians (in the sound of many horses and chariots) and the Syrian Army Fled leaving all their tents and thier food, supplies,and much booty behind the siege ended and so did the famine...

if you ever felt that Freedom was under Siege , now is the time to PRAY ........Liberating the rest of the world does not have to come at the cost of our freedom and rights. OR is the cracking down on our freedoms connected somehow with maintaining control in the midst of a Plight the will beset us in our future.....which is now crawling accross the finanicial and economic landscape even as we speak........
The admonitions of BLACK BLADE will seem like words of COMFORT then.......You will then understand why the Mormons store food ........for their own families and for another....

People make fun of the Vietnamese and the Hispanic immigrating public in the way they live to survive with multiple families living together in tight single family dwellings.......I anticipate that lifestyle becoming wide spread.....

PizzTwo Worlds (at least)#10125104/12/03; 12:40:32

Now I understand a little more, and now I'm even more of a long term gold and silver bull.

Having left the rat race of the metropolitan life style, (at least for 5 days of the week)and now working in a much smaller bedroom community in central Washington State, the cultural shock I've experienced to date is a bit unsettling.

For the most part these people have taken the emotional swings out of life. Fiat is currency and it works today, and it will work tomorrow. Gas prices are up, but it will go down, so they just don't buy as much anymore. If beef is high, they buy pork or chicken instead - no big deal. If their credit won't let them buy the car or home they want, they settle for less, fix what they have, or maybe wait a bit longer. War with Iraq? Having a tough go against the sports channels and soaps.

Gold and silver? They know what they are. Just don't have a real good reason (yet) to own it. I carry a silver round and a gold eagle with me all the time. I pull them out and show them a lot. In the city, attention goes to the gold eagle about 7 out of 10 times (it's the first one they pick up). In the country, so far, everyone has picked up the silver round first, and it takes them about 5 seconds to read the "One Ounce .999 Fine Silver". Then they usually ask what the other one is. I hand it to them, they look, read a bit, and all most all say, "Oh, thats a 50 dollar gold piece". I respond that it's one ounce of gold and ask them what they think it's worth, and they usually don't know or say fifty dollars.

Perception and marketing immediately come to mind. How long will it be before the mines and World Gold Council start MARKETING their product? And now I also have a pretty good idea why the establishment stamps $50.00 on one ounce of gold.

As far as trends and the future? It won't take too much more government mismanagement to start to light up the rural areas to the benefit of PM's. When you have the basic necessities of life increasing in price as now, and just as soon as they realize these prices are not going to go down significantly, they will start looking for alternatives. Most of them, at least my generation and older remember the seventies and eighties, and quite a few remember the PM bull market - especially silver. Many have commented on it.

Once this trend starts, it will last a long time. The city types will play the options, futures, and derivatives and give us our violent ups and downs, but the grass roots areas will give us our consistant up trend, and it will be physical they will buy, cause "stocks" are horses and cattle, "options" are what make a car more expensive, "futures" are what they want for their kids, "bonds" equate to, as in James, and did he have a brother, and "derivatives" are what make some gas better than another.

Now, back to fixing up the house and starting to dread the five days a week of motel living - Mr G, do you ever get used to being on the road????


LeighFor Investors, Gold's Vision 20/20#10125204/12/03; 13:21:26

New York (Reuters) - Global investors are climbing out of the bomb shelters on a fairly good bet that the Iraq war has reached the end game.

But the lesson a lot of people learned from the geopolitical script was this: Gold shouldn't have been written off as just a "barbaric relic" of the past -- never to be mentioned in the same breath with the word "investment."

Indeed, Wall Street could not help but notice that gold again proved itself as a super-sensitive, forward-looking indicator. It predicted how the Gulf War would go and how long it would last....

Fast rewind to Feb. 5. The price of gold peaked at around $391 as speculation by arm-chair generals about a long and bloody war sent stock prices in retreat. But then gold reversed course, sliding 11.2 percent to $336 by March 19th, the day U.S.-led forced unleashed the military campaign in Iraq.

"Godl was signaling a short and successful war -- even before it began," Salsman says. "While most of the media initially hinted that the U.S. military was getting bogged down, gold was reporting and predicting the opposite."

History is full of examples that gold is the best "war correspondent," Salsman says....

It's fair to say the stock market will remain vulnerable to more bad news. So gold may retain some of its recent luster as people continue to hedge their bets.

Don't expect investors to jump back with both feet into a premium-priced U.S. stock market. Money managers are not patriotic types. They'll shift to places where their cash will be treated well.

By Pierre Belec
Sorry, don't have a full link. Good to see gold back in the news!

Mr GreshamHey Pizz#10125304/12/03; 13:24:19

Welcome back. It's a different life, ain't it? No, I'm more settled in now than I've ever been. I'll tell ya about it sometime.
Ag MountainRich Powell#10125404/12/03; 14:24:55

I can admit that I'm very sure I don't have the skill to succeed where better men have failed. Glennh10 was laying down a long line of opinion as if it was reality so I basically told him that plane won't fly and he'd better go back to flight school if he wants to get it off the ground.

There was a small cult of people in California who all shared a common opinion about the Hale-Bopp comet, and they didn't get off the ground either. If someone had stepped in to tell them their opinions were patently delusional, they probably wouldn't all be 6 feet underground today.

My comments were intended for Glennh10 but suddenly Danial Druff jumped on me out of nowhere with an attitude so he must be something like the door guard for the cult defending or insulating the victims' own delusions from the true light of day. Now you're doing the same thing. Are you guys are trying to stay so closed-minded to the real world that you have to use a network of support from each other to prevent any of your cult from getting exposure to daylight or just rumors of daylight and wondering about the real world outside your walls?

I'll tell you what I told Glennh10, you have a lot to learn too. To anyone of us on the outside looking in, you guys have invented your very own rules of physics. I'm telling you, your plane won't fly. Being cool has nothing to do with it.

I once told a kid not to jump of the roof. He had a red blanket tied around his neck and thought he knew what he was doing because he talked about Superman all the time with his friends and read the comic books. He thought I was the stupid one because I told him he couldn't fly with his cape. I didn't even bother to explain gravity. He also thought I was mean because I did stop him from jumping. I was bigger than he was and that was enough at the time. He always remembered that, but I don't know if he ever thanked me when he got older and smarter than he was back then.

Help doesn't always arrive with flowers and feel like hugs and kisses, but that doesn't mean it isn't help. Most people have figured that out when they're teenagers.

I pointed those cult guys to the Gold Trail without any sugarcoating, and for that I get your invective. That's a bizarre reaction. Why do you feel so threatened by my comments to help those other guys see some daylight?

R PowellAg Mountain#10125504/12/03; 15:10:33

I too read Glennh10 post and reacted much as you say you did. I viewed it as opinion unsubstantiated by any facts or links, as are many other posts. I benefit most from those messages that provide new news, facts and, of course, interpretations (opinions) of such especially as to how these developments will effect gold and silver.

However, Glennh10's post imho did not deserve the condescending blasting that you gave it. It was probably more the attitude you projected toward it along with your disdain to elaborate on or even identify those points on which you disagree that disturbed me. No one benefited from your response while many were saddened.

None among us is all-knowing. No one is always correct. Would it surprise you if I mentioned that some of us even disagree with some of the Trail literature that you point at as gospel and upon which you judge the words of others? Many subjects discussed here are akin to philosophy in that, when discussion ends, there are no entirely correct or incorrect answers forthcoming. Perhaps none exist. In this regard, the study of finance (of which precious metals are a part) must entertain and respect different, sometimes opposing viewpoints. Let us separate fact from opinion as much as possible while searching for the answers but let us remember also that the end we seek will take the form of an opinion. It is the difference of opinion that makes a market. Everyone is allowed one and entitled to one. Everyone is entitled to disagree but, please, in a somewhat more constructive and less haughty manner. Then, perhaps, our mutual research, thoughts and opinions can and will be a benefit to all. Lastly, let us remember to attempt to stay on subject which I have not so I'll beg forgiveness of our host and end here.
Peace and Happy Weekend

Ag MountainRich Powell please don't waste this space with off topic etiquette lessons, thank you#10125604/12/03; 16:20:41

I don't see what you're seeing. I looked again at my single post to Glennh10. It was seven sentences long and not a condescending blasting as you called it. Take another look yourself at it --- 101211. Without reinventing the wheel I told him his physics was bad and told him where he could go to school for correction. Danniel Druff got more of the same when he came barging in saying show your cards, show your cards.

I agree, the Gold Trail is not a kind of gospel that makes a truth simply because it says so and so. The truth is already out in the world, but it's the Gold Trail that does the best job revealing it, better than I could, so why should I try to say it when I can just point to it? If that can't knock the cobwebs out of someones head I know I sure can't do it so I'm not going to even try. I'll just point. That is my form of help and it doesn't represent meanness.

The only thing that's ugly in all of this is your strong desire to find meanness in my intentions where there is in fact none. Frankness is not always a sign of hostility. Some people don't have time to burn. But however much time they have they should always make room to learn. I used to think like you did, but then I discovered I had been wrong all along. Wrong like you and those cult guys. You can find the truth and wisdom on your own if you try lots harder doing lots of your own investigation, but the Gold Trail gives you the shortcuts to the truth that's already there.

I think it's off topic. We're suppose to discuss gold not discuss how people are discussing gold. I'll stop posting for a while if you silver money culters would really rather discuss my short manner. It's nonproductive. Thank you.

CoBra(too)Listening with half an Ear ...#10125704/12/03; 16:29:32

To Jim Puplavas weekly broadcast - I've just picked up the road to disaster ... "Home Equity EXTRACTION" ... can only say - SPOT ON:

From here on I'd feel SPOT GO - and please turn down the personal destractions - we've heard them all ... long before - thank you cb2

PS: I'm a Philistine by nature ...

Cavan Man@CB(too)#10125804/12/03; 16:36:24

I thought you were Bohemian (au natural).
Ag MountainGetting there on the easy road#10125904/12/03; 16:44:44

If I'm walking down the street at noon and somebody is standing around telling everybody it's 3:00, I'm not going to stop and build him a clock and teach him solar astronomy and the philosophy of time. I'm going to say he's wrong, point to Big Ben, and keep on walking.

Who would have thought his buddies would try to beat me up for my cheekiness.

All that to justify another post to say this is a better link than my previous one for looking the Gold Trail. It's alot like Big Ben which doesn't make the time be what it is, but it can help you learn about it especially when you don't have a good clue to begin with.

PizzCB2#10126004/12/03; 16:55:24

On home equity extraction. Here's a real life (mine) senario.

Pulled a refi last year, paid off some debt and bought some physical. Made sense, lowered my monthly payments and gave me a little more monthly cash to save to buy more as we go along.

Then unexpectedly, I make the decision to relocate and so I need to sell the house into a fairly soft market. I'm thankful I only borrowed about 75% of market (now it's about 80%) and I have to put a little more back into it than I normally would just to sell it.

I doubt seriously I'll have to get into any of my investments, but I have the option if I need to (paper gold first of course if I need it).

Now, it didn't even dawn on me a year ago that I would even consider selling my residence, but I will admit that if I hadn't been a bit conservative during the transaction, I'd be sweating a bit right now (don't want to sell any of my PM investments).

Now take someone who has borrowed 125% of equity and used the cash to buy toys, vacations, etc. Disaster waiting to happen, or maybe a major lost opportunity cause they could't liquidate in order to take advantage of a good career move.

Not enough like us to have this come out good in the long run. Nice to have a golden cushion if needed. Debt is turning into one dirty bird.


slingshotPizz Msg# 101251#10126104/12/03; 17:18:25

Enjoyed your post.

CoBra(too)@CM - Ha ...#10126204/12/03; 17:19:05

Not naturalized, though!

That's how Benes kept Austrian fortunes to "hisself" (neat old lingo) ...
And otherwise, I'm still pretty much a Bohemian - hopefully.

- just pronounce it - Ne`va`da` - and you may be on the Moldawa and drink Pilsener instead of Tullamore.

Uh, Oh, just thinking about seeing Johnny Boy Snow (Job) on the tube da other day. Never seen a more fake guy stating official lies with a (crooked) though sarcastic smile.

Add a little Rum(sfeld), Wolfowitz', Cheney', Myers and a few Perles of ultimate Tabasco wisdom - shake or stir it - and what you'll get is an explosive coctail of Molotow type of Bloody Mary's!
... I'm sure you can relate to that, without meaning it in any derogatory sense - my good friend CM! So whatever that means, we'll still bash your head - since the 'Zauberlehrling' we've created, has created a monster. Fortunately in an area we've zeroed in as important to our energetic survival. ... And if it wasn't Saddam we'd have to invent some one like him (extracted from position paper 1992 signed by the likes of aforementioned gentlemen).

/Der Moor hat seinen Dienst getan/ Nun kann er gehen -

Cynical yours ...let's go lootin' the rest of CB's GOLD - Oh, it's merely a barbarous relic - anyhoo - cb2

CoBra(too)Pizz; Slingshot ...#10126304/12/03; 17:35:50

I did too. Liked your post also and thank you!

Signing off for tonight - take care gents and
have a great weekend ... while I still listen to the
rest of Jim Puplava's radio Hour(s) ... cb2

Cor Tauriraise the debt ceiling by $973 billion in fiscal 2004, to $7.23 trillion#10126404/12/03; 18:22:08

Saturday, April 12, 2003

The Express-Times

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- House lawmakers at 2:39 a.m. Friday passed a $2.24 trillion budget for next year, narrowly endorsing a plan that would allow new tax cuts, stomach a record deficit of $385 billion and raise the government debt ceiling by nearly $1 trillion in just one year.

CoBra(too)Mortgage? #10126504/12/03; 18:38:03

@ Pizz - Sorry to say that I'm still around - instead of sleeping, though calling 75% of mortgage on a residence conservative may be just that, though only in the US of A.

In Europe you've probably have to prove your solid income to even qualify for a 50% mortgage on your home - even if the going market price may be 300% of the latest valuation.

Since I do feel the US housing prices are comprising the last bubble to burst - it also held up the consumption boom a/o wealth effect in view of the collapsing SM 'valuations' - a sorry euphemism for the negative effects on real wealth - and a reminder of foreclosures to come.

The GSE's a.k.a. Fannie, Freddie & Co. are exactly that. GSE's - gov. sponsored - not garuanteed! Looking at their Balance Sheets - it's similar to the BS the french inspecteur Cleauseau(?) has deplored - the missing 'shi'it' on his bed and the big 'piss' of steak on his plate. ... And please forgive my French - as I'm just learning about freedom fries...- something I won't ever understand as the first potato plants were imported to Europe by the adventurers of old( Pizz-aro at any chance?).

Anyway, to be or not to be in GOLD is akin to trivial pursuit - as long as the housing market in the US is the same kind of perceived illusion ... as the term home equity extraction - like pulling teeth - you'll lose a slice of your worth - tooth by tooth (and there's no eye for an eye - not even for an eye-tooth - it's only a GSE - god sent excuse!).

Remember to take your gold fillings with you! cb2

21mabrymining#10126604/12/03; 18:56:39

I have an anthroplogy class on north american indian tribes.Every week we study a diffrent tribe their culture,history, way of life its interesting.The past few weeks we have been looking at canadian reservations.If all the material we have been using is accurate the mining companies including the gold miners,have been none to kind to the native american tribes and their enviroment.Lots of problems with strip mining,caustic and cancer causing agents getting into the water supply'smelters putting out alot of pollution, sounds like some of these tribes are having a tough time.
PizzCB2#10126704/12/03; 19:27:01

More on mortgages. It's perception. I think most will agree that the US mindset is just a bit different than in that of Europe (or anywhere else for that matter).

I do believe that the populace of the largest debtor nation history has ever seen has inflation "programmed" into them since birth and it is continuing at the highest levels thru the endless printing of more dollars. Europe is just a lttle (a lot??) more conservative regarding the rampant printing of money, and from first hand experience of the disaster it can bring. And since fiat is created by lending, what you say makes complete sense to me. What I consider conservative you consider on the edge, and although I know borrowing 125% against something is rediculous, you may have a hard time even compreheding the thought.

What we are discussing is why I am of the opinion that real estate is not in a bubble. I see nothing different right now, 4 years into the normal 10 year cycle of real estate, than I have for the last 4 decades. And I will keep on saying that deflation is not an option for the US. I started that line over a year ago when nearly everyone was screaming and scared stiff of the deflation monster.

Can we print them faster than the rest of the world can cash them in? (to gold maybe???) We shall see, but I think it's a safe bet that Alan can flood the world with cyber greenbacks faster than everyone else can dump them. Not too many places to put them that is safe except tangibles, ya think???

We shall see.

Thanks for the kind words (Mr G and Slingshot too.


physicalmanthe Granola state just don't get it#10126804/12/03; 20:08:49

they stop gold mining and try to make the sheeple think that nothing replaces paper!
a nation of onehold the brush#10126904/12/03; 20:09:59

He may be a white flake and an irritating disease of the head, but Dan Druff is on our side. He's right about some things. We should hear him for that reason. We all have annoying aspects to our nature. If we excluded people on that basis, we couldn't have a forum.
a nation of onemoreover, #10127004/12/03; 20:11:48

What's more, his output is prodigious, which is an ability that is useful. And he bounces back quickly. That is something that can only be admired.
BILLYGTokyo Nikkei #10127104/12/03; 20:19:06$NIKK,uu[w,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G

Has any one noticed that the Nikkei hit a new 20-year plus low on Friday? Looks to me that something will happen in the next few weeks to drive U.S. markets down hard, and that may be it. But the other hand I am normally wrong.
a nation of oneGood Question....#10127204/12/03; 20:22:01

By Ag Mountain (04/12/03; 14:24:55MT - msg#: 101254): "Why do you feel so threatened by my comments...?"
a nation of oneBILLYG (04/12/03; 20:19:06MT - msg#: 101271)#10127304/12/03; 20:26:50

But we're all normally wrong. That's just an indication that we're still trying. But really, to your point, I have been execting for some time that this second quarter might show us some fairly decisive revelations in the markets. There are also some other people who believe this. The president for example. And others who only keep their more serious notes written on their tucked-in shirttails.
21mabry(No Subject)#10127404/12/03; 21:04:29

I was talking with a family friend last week, this guy I always considered a savy investor.He got in early in tech and turned 30 grand into 350 grand.This was the first time I had talked to him in about 2 years, his portfolio has been cut down to around 100,000 and he said he did pay cash for a new car also.Needless to say he was glum, I started to talk about gold investing with him.His reply was this world is getting scary I have been thinking about getting a gun and some gold. I realized something, this guy is intelligent and has made money in investments,but he equated gold with end of the world scenarios.He did not look at it as an investment, well I turned him on to this site and some books so we will see what happens. one last thing he had no idea how to buy or invest in gold.
geDerivative Contracts and USD as its unit of account#10127504/13/03; 00:56:28

Derivatives are contracts that have USD as their unit of account.

Suppose that derivatives fail and we want to diagnose the situation. There are two options I can find out:

* Initially, derivatives were used to hedge against natural disasters (grain contracts). Later, they were used to hedge against man made disasters (forex and interest rates). We may conclude that, the use of derivatives should be limited to hedge against natural disasters.


* We may conclude that USD does not have enough moneyness essence in itself, and a more modern money which is in harmony with the sprit of the times should be devised and utilised. In the mean time, we maintain that the usage of interest rate and forex derivatives were natural, necessary and modern.

What is the relevance of this illustration to gold?

Well, some people have concluded that gold is not suitable as a contract unit of account due to the reason that some gold contracts failed.

Why did these gold contracts failed? This would bring us to an another question:

Suppose a contract is signed between a superpower and a simple nation. Things happen and a situation develops in which the superpower must pay some reparations due to the articles written in the contract. However, the superpower defaults. How can the contract can be enforced?

This leads us to the conclusion that, international balance of power is a prerequisite of gold standard. Otherwise, there would be no method of enforcing contracts.

contrariange---profound musings#10127604/13/03; 06:49:44

your posting is a profound one, and it deserves further investigation. It would be illuminating to look at the geopolitical world structure at the time of the full-fledged gold standard, before 1921 (I think?).

Nuclear weaponry seems to be the thing that brought about the superpower, and the division into two camps of the haves and have nots.

As the US falls into the classical trap dating since Roman antiquity of using military power to supplant waning economic power--it will be interesting and revealing to see how the situation plays out.

Many questions will be answered in this situation. How dependent is military power on economic power? How long a period of time can military power tyrannize without concurrent economic power? And more ominously, it the US currency is destroyed, can military power continue to predominate?

Especially if, according to classical economic tenets, the US is no longer a viable economic power--that is, no longer producing any physical GOODS (not services) that anyone wants to buy, not even the paper dollar--the one physical good (the paper dollar) that was the object of envy, admiration, and attainment, long having been degraded to Charmin.

I guess looking at the fate of the USSR could be instructive. Essentially, it became a shell of itself, and lost its superpower status. Such could be the destiny of the US. (And this portends the rise of gold.)

In this post US dollar demise world, perhaps having nuclear weapons alone won't be enough to bestow power on the world stage, since their actual use is so frowned upon--hence the country that uses the bomb will lose all credibility and respect on the world stage.

Yes, military power thus seems tremendously dependent upon economic power. And war, ultimately, of course, is won on economic terms. So these wartime adventures may ultimately collapse of their own hubris!

MusicManQuestions from a newie#10127704/13/03; 08:31:31

Hello all.

(1) Can I infer correctly from archives - re future oil for future gold - that the huge short paper gold and silver positions ultimately represent forward sales to oil producers? That the derivatives mountain might therefore not necessarily be as inherently unstable as most commentators assume?

(2) On silver - is a scenario feasible whereby gold and silver simply end up at parity? ANOTHER did say that oil producers are only buying gold, but the vast silver short positions and evident manipulation of Ag market seem (to me) to indicate stockpiling of future silver as well.

(3) If gold, and hence oil, are to be massively reavalued, and the US authorities know this,then isn't the aquisition of the Iraqi oilfields of considerable strategic significance?


skiSilver Gains versus Gold Gains .......#10127804/13/03; 09:33:46

My continuous position here on this forum has been that silver will outperform gold on a percentage basis and therefore, at the very least, forum members should at some point (now or in the near future), have a meaningful silver position.

This real life story comes to mind that tends to be analogous to the silver/gold situation that we are now in .....

My sons, high-school wrestling team was looking forward to a great year. One of the team members was a rising superstar (gold). He had come from a family of wrestlers and had been active in wrestling since an early age. How a big senior, legitimate, high-hopes were placed on his shoulders by everyone. I attended the practices and noted that the rising superstar was in fact a good, but not a great westler. He was ALREADY in good shape, had a lot of skills and experience and was learning and progressing at an AVERAGE rate compared to the average team members. The rising superstar had EVERYONE'S attention and won a high percentage of matches. This percentage of wins, increased in direct proportion to his aveage rate of increase in skill level.

My son (silver) also joined the wrestling team as a sophomore. He had never wrestled in his life. No one in his immediate circle of friends ever had anything to do with this sport. Upon joining the team, he knew almost nothing about wrestling and to add insult to injury, he was 30 pounds overweight and more out-of-shape than the average sophomore. Compared to the other jocks on the team, he was in horrible shape. At the beginning of the season, he won about 5% of his matches. Needless to say, he was totally off everyone's radar screen. Few cheered him on and no one noticed him except for dad.

You know how this story is going to go ... don't you??

As the season progressed, the rising superstar (gold) performed exactly as expected. Due to his improved physical condition and added skills, his percentage of wins climbed at a controlled rate, which added to standing.

My son had a different season. He made a VAST improvement in his physical condition and he had muscles and strength in places that had been unknown to himself. In the process, he lost many pounds and took on a whole new look which was reflected in a much higher self esteem. What really surprised even dad, was his unbelieviable speed in mastering completely new wrestling moves. The coach would show him something and he was instantly able to internalize and utilize the new technique. By the end of the season, he was winning 70% of his matches, a TREMENDOUS IMPROVEMENT. Virtually no one had noticed his POTENTIAL. Virtually no one noticed his rapid development during the middle of the season. And few ever realized the phenomenal level of accomplishment and success by season's end.

In the world of sports, the rising superstar won because he attained an oveall higher percentage of wins over my son. BUT IN THE WORLD OF INVESTMENT, my son won because of his percentage of improvement from point A to point B. (They say that there is no such thing as perfect analogy. I have gone on record on this forum as stating that the overwhelming body of facts say that the POS will temporarily exceed the POG.)
Let's talk about silver and gold. And let me be the first to yell that one week of trading does not make a trend.

Per Bloomberg TV, over the past five trading days:
Platinum up .89%
Gold up .77%
Silver up 1.81%
Price movement of mining shares often gives a better advance picture. Last Friday spot gold plus $3 and spot silver plus one penny. Yet....

gold shares:
AEM -.93%
ABX -.65%
GG -.38%
NEM .73%
PDG -1.3%

silver shares:
CDE -.76%
SIL .76%
PAAS 1.27%
HL 1.83%
SSRI 2.50%

For the whole week, most of the silver shares made significant gains (data not provided), while most of the gold shares lost ground or were unchanged. Silver clearly WON last weeks wrestling match.

Silver .... why don't you have any??

OvSSound of Music#10127904/13/03; 10:43:42

Music Man, you are a 'sound' thinker. You don't
happen to be the 'musical' son and inheritor of
Paul Getty?
This is the first time I see you posting. Please
keep humming to make my 'searching-for-sound-in-
sights' chimes, ring in harmony.

LeighSki#10128004/13/03; 11:20:05

GREAT story - I'm with you! Keep posting!!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Common sense investing for common and uncommon times... $5.95#10128104/13/03; 12:54:53

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Attention USAGOLD-CPM, Inc. valued clientele and visitors!#10128204/13/03; 13:12:00

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TownCrierMK's latest update...#10128304/13/03; 13:26:01

(an excerpt)

...Will Gulf War II come to be known more for what it revealed in the relationship between the United States and Europe than the astonishingly rapid victory on that far-flung battlefield?

That prospect is likely to make for a less than friendly meeting of G-7 finance ministers this weekend. Concerns have already surfaced that the political "gulf" between nations could spill over to the economic arena.

One is tempted to ask the question: "How could it not?" Few who follow the international economic scene can escape being struck with how quickly and deeply the fissures between the United States, France, Germany and Russia widened over the last few weeks.

How will this play out for the dollar? What would be the outcome if these nations known for being some of the best friends of the dollar became some of its most implacable enemies? How much of what the United States has gained in the desert of the Middle East will be lost in the market for its equities -- particularly its debt instruments -- throughout the rest of the world?

These are not inconsequential questions, and they are sure to figure into the near-term gold price, not to speak of the future for the equities markets worldwide.

Adding to the concerns, French foreign minister, Dominique de Villepin will visit Egypt, Syria and Saudi Arabia this weekend, and one doubts that the meetings will be over the quality of last year's Bordeaux vintage....
Click the url above for access to MK's full commentary, and be sure to periodically revisit this page throughout the week for updates to the list of important links, articles, and charts.


Cavan ManWhile we're in the neighborhood....#10128404/13/03; 16:50:43

Bush tells Syria to 'co-operate'
US President George W Bush has warned Syria against harbouring fugitives from Saddam Hussein's ousted regime in Iraq.
America, he said, expected Iraq's western neighbour to "co-operate" with the US-led coalition and he added that he believed Syria possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD)- the charge against Iraq which sparked the war there.

"We believe there are chemical weapons in Syria," the president said, speaking to press on the White House lawn.

Cavan ManMore (hubris?)#10128504/13/03; 16:52:46

Bush: Syria has chemical weapons

US President George W. Bush said on Sunday that Syria has chemical weapons, and warned Damascus that it "must cooperate" with Washington as it continues its effort to overthrow the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq.

"We believe there are chemical weapons in Syria," he told journalists on the White House lawn. "Each situation will require a different response," he said in reply to reporters' questions about US allegations that Syria is aiding the Iraqi regime.

"First things first. We're here in Iraq now," Bush said, adding that "we expect cooperation" from Syria. (

Cavan ManKeep an eye on this.#10128604/13/03; 16:55:19

Where is OBL anyway?

The war of words between the United States and Syria continued Sunday, with President Bush and top administration officials again warning Damascus against harboring fugitives from the regime of ousted Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

Mr. Bush told White House reporters Sunday he also believes there are chemical weapons in Syria. He did not elaborate. The President issued his first warning to Damascus Friday.

Earlier Sunday, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said there is no question that some senior Iraqi leaders have fled to or through Syria. He declined to identify the fugitives or say whether the United States was prepared to take action against Syria.

TownCrierBritain and the euro#10128704/13/03; 20:07:05,,724-646231,00.html

Speaking on BBC Radio, Mr Mandelson said: "I believe that he (Mr Blair) considers that Britain will lose a significant growth potential, we will miss out economically, primarily, but also politically, if we remain outside the euro indefinitely. I think his instinct will be to go for a referendum in this Parliament."
-----(see url for article)----

There is going to be a tremendous push to foster pro-euro sentiment in this event. Recent polls have shown Brits to be decidedly against joining the EMU.


Black BladeGold bugs look beyond war, betting on a declining dollar #10128804/13/03; 21:59:41


Is it time to go for the gold or has it lost its shine? "Anybody who thinks the game is over is watching too much CNBC," said John Hathaway, fund manager for the Tocqueville Gold Fund in New York, which was up 83 percent last year. "I think there was a war premium built into in the gold price when it got to a high of $390," said Brien Lundin, publisher of the Gold Newsletter, based in Jefferson, La. "But that war premium has largely been washed away, and I don't think we have much more to go on the downside."

But tempting as it may be to attribute climbing gold prices to the conflict in Iraq, many gold bugs think this isn't the most significant factor in gold's latest climb. The investment landscape is threatened by a number of storm clouds: the slipping stock market, deficit spending, and most of all, the declining dollar. "Any long-standing bull market in gold is founded on a corresponding lack of confidence in the fiat currency of the day," Lundin said.

A telling portrait of gold's performance emerges when viewed during a 200-year period, according to Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School and author of the best-selling "Stocks for the Long Run." According to his calculations, a dollar invested in the stock market from 1802 to 2001 would have grown to $599,605. A dollar invested in gold during that period would be worth -- 98 cents.

Black Blade: I have been listening to Jeremy Siegel off and on for a few years and to be blunt – he's a moron. A dollar invested in the stock market in 1802 would be ZERO! That a dollar invested in the market from 1802 to 2001 would become $599,605 (even depreciated dollars) is an absolute lie. No stock in existence at that time exists today - not even after mergers and acquisitions. Of course the dollar was relatively stable until FDR inflated the dollar after confiscation. The comparison simply does not exist. So Jeremy's contention is not only misleading but it is comparing apples to oranges. He has been telling the CNBC carnival barkers that there will be a "second half recovery" for the last four years and so far his record has been rather pathetic. But then he's a moron so I will leave it there. The stock market has gone through a long 20 year bull and now is in a long term secular bear market. I guess now we will see the how the stock market and the US dollar perform vs. gold.

Black BladeFor investors, gold's vision is 20/20#10128904/13/03; 22:21:13


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Global investors are climbing out of the bomb shelters on a fairly good bet the Iraq war has reached the end game. But the lesson a lot of people learned from the geopolitical script was this: Gold shouldn't have been written off as just a "barbaric relic" of the past -- never to be mentioned in the same breath with the word "investment." Indeed, Wall Street could not help but notice that gold again proved itself as a super-sensitive, forward-looking indicator. It predicted how the Gulf War would go and how long it would last. After being snubbed by investors for more than 10 years, gold surged to a six-year high above $390 an ounce in February from a low of $252 in the summer of 1999. The price now hovers at a four-month low of about $326 as the end of the war appears to be in sight. "Equity investors should pay attention to the message delivered by gold," says Richard Salsman, chief market strategist for InterMarket Forecasting Inc. "For weeks, it's been predicting a swift and decisive U.S. defeat of Saddam Hussein."

The precious metal has also been known to accurately predict the direction of the stock market. It signaled the Great Bull Market of the late 1990s as gold prices plunged by 39 percent between February 1996 and July 1999. The stock bubble burst in March 2000. On the war scoreboard, in the early 1970s gold leaped 430 percent during the disastrous Viet Nam war, rising from $35 in 1968 to a high of $185.50 by December 1974.

Underlying the war fear are deeper worries about the health of the world's biggest economy and the weaker dollar. Consumer spending, which generates two-thirds of the nation's growth, could stall and lead the economy back into recession. Americans continued to cut back on borrowing in February. The increase of 3.64 percent in consumer credit from the level of a year earlier was the slowest 12-month rise since 1993, according to the Federal Reserve. It's fair to say the stock market will remain vulnerable to more bad news. So gold may retain some of its recent luster as people continue to hedge their bets. Don't expect investors to jump back with both feet into a premium-priced U.S. stock market. Money managers are not patriotic types. They'll shift to places where their cash will be treated well.

Black Blade: It is an interesting article, however, the article neglects to point out that the gold price tumbled in 1996 as the dollar strengthened and began to rise long before Gold War II on a weakening dollar. The dollar is still under pressured and well overvalued. The stock market is in the early stages of a secular bear market and the dollar will respond along with the weaker equities markets that reflect deteriorating economic conditions after all. That makes gold a good bet over the next several years.

Belgian@Towncrier#1012904/14/03; 01:11:15

Sir, at, you can find an interesting, little, thesis on the US_Blair, connection (liaison).
See article : " Why the Democratic party failed to function in this crisis". Sir Evelyn de Rothschild is a remarkable ( golden-?) go-between, here !?

And indeed, the UK and "at present", T. Blair, is closely watched by his own party and "old" Europe. Has T.Blair the intention of building an Atlantic (renewed) bridge between US and Euroland...or has it already become impossible with Blair as leader ? EMU, with or without, a radical choice from the UK. Yes, this would make a tremendous difference for how the euro and dollar would evolve.

Blair's future depends solely on the US's action(s) in the M.E. ! The Iraq aftermath, Israel solution, another invasion ? In other words...will Pax Americana go that classical "one step" too far (in the ME) and leave the UK no other choice as to disconnect and join EMU !? UK in EMU would enhance the probability of Norway joining and a possible attempt for Northsea oil for euro, as a starter/booster. (euro-enhancement) ?

Euroland (D.Villepin) is in contact with some Iraqi-future government factions. A "new" Iraq for Iraqis !!! In other words..."WHO" will own Iraq's oil reserves !? And for wich currency will it be sold ? That's the coming "real" war(s). The only governmental building that remained completely intact in Bagdad, was...the Ministry of Oil.

Let us not forget that Turkey, the Kurds and Israel, want their share of the oil-bonanza. France, Germany and Russia have supported the 12 year oil-embargo and consequently the postponement of debt-repayment...
It seems very clear to me that the Iraqis want to govern their country AND oilreserves (autonomously) by themselves with the least outside involvement, possible. The taliban (Afghanistan) still hold their poppy plantations (comparaison)!

Oil >>> dollar or euro >>> Gold, framed within a detoriating economical/geopolitical picture !

RobotGuyIt's still there#1012914/14/03; 08:30:00

Many seemed to believe that all of the tumult the market suffers would disappear pending the positive outcome in Iraq. Unfortunately war today is not like war of yesteryear. Attacks are not executed in similar fashion, and the equipment used is more elaborate. We do not convert our countries into complete war-minded efforts as we have in the past. Before the war in Iraq began there were many opinions of what was going to transpire and as usual those with extreme thinking patterns perveyed the worst possible scenarios. Fortunately to this point there hasn't been overwhelming devastation to humanity, and for the most part Iraqis are realizing a lifestyle they have dreamed of for years. Now the focus is returning to the state of the North-American economy, and the realization that the war really didn't give a huge economical boost to it. In fact, it's becoming evident that there will more likely be a negativie effect on the economy as a result of the war. IMHO the economy is about ready to realize it's trend, and sink to the point where all of the artificial wealth has been consumed and the majority of the b*llsh*t has been exposed.

I have seen evidence over the course of the last few weeks that would suggest that we are indeed heading for another tiny run up in the POG followed by a long slow upward trend. Of couse you must remember, I am merely a RobotGuy with limited focus on the big picture. I am actually shocked to see how dead it is in this forum, this is the only thing that would make me wonder if my intuition was flawed. When I originally came into this forum POG was sitting at roughly US$254 and the posts were flying. This was almost directly before the inevitable run up in POG. I don't think US$425 (same numbers different arrangement)is too far away, but where have all the golbugs gone?

I know I've taken a break from posting anything in this forum, but I have something to share with you all. Often i would come in here and read the posts, and then create a post of my own, but after serious consideration I would delete my post and remain a lurker. RobotGuy isn't as versed and experienced as most of the seasoned posters in this forum, and I feel my posts are merely clutter amidst finely written works of art.

I will post this message with questios of the validity of it's content, however I am merely contributing my own sentiment and sometimes I feel this is of some value to those who are interested in reading what others might feel.

Cheers to all of the diehard goldbugs!

Your friendly neighborhood RobotGuy.

contrarianBlack Blade you're right#1012924/14/03; 08:42:12

Yes, Black Blade--you're on the money...regarding yesterday's post about moronic Jeremy Siegel. If you look to the Archives from 2/27/2003, you'll find a hearty discussion (and dissing) of his contention how a dollar invested in 1802 would have grown to by 2001:

Stocks he claim would have grown to an inflation-adjusted figure of $599,605, while gold would be worth $.98 adjusted for inflation.

His thoughts were also featured in February on the Motley Fool, aptly named.

His contention is an abstract construct, not a real world scenario, based on looking backwards, as if you knew exactly which stocks to hop on and hop off of, as they came into existence and then departed, companies being evanescent things that usually don't last 200 years.

It's based on an ideal path, not a real-world one. As life unfortunately only happens in the present, an iseal path is accessible only to those rare souls who can accurately predict the future. I don't know of anyone who fits this category.

A more realistic thing would be, if you could, to survey all the stockholders in the last 200 years, and calculate the average lifetime returns on the stocks they held. And then adjust it for inflation. Now that would be an interesting figure! And I doubt it would be $599,605!

CometoseSilver#1012934/14/03; 08:49:57

8:40am Silver up 3.7
Perhaps the 4 horsemen of silver beginning to initiate the fires of a self fullfilling a silver move
Any firemen around ? would like to hear something on the
point of a fire (heat) at which combustions happens .....
I believe this happens in financial markets.... because of emotions .... and herd mentality....

slingshotRobotGuy Msg#101291#1012944/14/03; 08:55:16

Long time between posts.

Calm before the storm. Nothing New under the sun. Waiting for the sacrificial lamb.

Knowing what we know now about gold, could you ride the bull back down to $254.00?


Eleanor of AquitaineRobot Guy#1012954/14/03; 09:07:58

The POG is now substantially below the price at which I bought, so I'm quiet. If (when?) it gets back up to the POG at which I bought and God willing, surpasses it, I'll be much more talkative. Right now, I'm scared that I made a huge huge mistake with my investment.
a nation of oneTo RobotGuy (4/14/03; 08:30:00MT - msg#: 101291)#1012964/14/03; 09:11:35

I hope the next time you write a post and think about withholding it, that you will go ahead and post it. I always read them and learn from them. The artsy stuff doesn't always matter, but substance does, and your posts have plenty.
CoBra(too)G7 Meeting and John Snow#1012974/14/03; 09:12:28

Even as the G7 Meeting wound up as a now characteristically
Non-Event, Mr. Snow greeted the smallest possible common denominator as a major advance. He also said something like - the world economy has escaped further deterioration as fast as never before - which sounded like almost unscathed.

Not so fast Mr. Snow; There was absolutely something missing in this statement - even if the uncertainty of Iraq may quickly fade into history - the markets did not respond with any kind of jubilation. Or did they? Nor did the other G6 see it your way. Neither the UN, nor the G6 are very happy with spending their scarce funds on the rebuilding of Iraq - in particular as US companies will reserve the juciest part of re-building. So bring in the IMF and World Bank to do the dirty job of cleaning up after the shock and awe.

OK, fair enough! If you've had to go it (almost) alone - why not mop it up alone as well, as the rest of the globe holds its breath for the US producing the proverbial smoking gun. If it can't be found there it may be somewhere - else that is - as Syria, Iran etc. are zooming into plain view. Or was it for the control of ME Oil, or the danger of losing some $-seignorage to the € (euro), or screening the real economic and monetary problems - and the enormous debt problems of the US? Who knows, though I would strongly recommend reading Porter Stansbury's essay "Generation Debt Bomb" over the Daily Reckoning site today.

Pulling out the IMF and WB of the US Hat of mirages in order to scare G6 into paying up for the aftermath of war seems as close to the most dangerous threat as ever. I fear a cornered rat effect - and maybe a re-run of an arms race of the unwilling. To requote GWB - Who is not with us is against us - may turn out to be the most unfortunate words ever spoken by a US President!

In the meantime the economy is still not recovering, the debt situation is totally out of control and the rest of world is straddled with far too many ir-redeemable fiat $, while viewing a totally overstretched US in all and every sense. And finally, Patriot Act II is shaping into a form of serfdom never to have hit the USA since 1776.

If there ever was a more compelling time to private gold ownership ... I personally can't fathom one. And I've been around for some time ... Regards and sorry for ranting - cb2

PS: Tks MK for your efforts again to keep us updated on developments - excellent mix.

slingshot(No Subject)#1012984/14/03; 09:29:12

O.K. Gold under $500.00 is still considered to be a bargain. That is what I am reading. So considering gold is cheap, if the price falls even to $254, than this is what we want so we can accumulate more of the PIE. If this were to happen I doubt there would be any gold left to snap up.
Just a matter of ones comfort zone.

Be nice to the Goldbugs on the way down, for you meet the same Goldbugs on the way up.

Slingshot---------------------- <>

ZhishengGold Today#1012994/14/03; 09:34:45

Relative to Friday's close, gold is down <em>and</em> the dollar is down.


Buena Fethe REAL war... slowly being made public#1013004/14/03; 09:38:32

Bush issues new warning to Syria

President says Iraqi neighbor ‘needs to cooperate’ with U.S.

Answering a question from a conference participant, Putin said that 80 percent of the world fell short of Western standards of democracy. "Do we go to war with all of them?" he asked.
Putin, Chirac and Schroeder were the war's most vocal opponents. Now, their insistence on a political role for the United Nations could further strain their relations with Washington. ................
........NOT THE 51ST STATE
"Iraq is not the 51st state of America," Seleznyov said. "All debt issues will be resolved only with the lawful government of Iraq."
Wolfowitz, one of the main advocates of the campaign to overthrow Saddam, also said that France would have to "pay some consequences" for its opposition to the U.S. invasion, especially for opposing NATO assistance to Turkey.
"I agree the French have behaved in ways ... that have been very damaging to NATO. I think France is going to pay some consequences, not just with us but with our countries who view it that way, but I don't think we want to make the Iraqi people the victims of that particular quarrel," he said...........

a new empire is just beginning to flex its muscle, us in the cross hairs, gold always wins when political strife reachs such a pitch.

i choose no sides, both are fallible, just protecting my family and friends

Clink!re Siegel#1013014/14/03; 09:38:54

I think that it is clear that anyone who states a six-digit SWAG to the last digit must be trying to hide a lack of substance by a supposed front of exactitude. But he's not the only one - I cringe when I hear over-exact target prices, e.g. gold could top $407.25 before year end. Yeah, right !!


a nation of oneThe thing itself does not lack luster.#1013024/14/03; 09:41:03

In order to buy low and sell high, it is usually necessary to buy when no one else is buying, and to sell when nobody else is selling. I think right now most people really don't know what to do about gold. It's down from where it was. It's up from where it was before that. It tried to go to 400 and couldn't do it. Actually, that was overheated, maybe because of a lot of short covering, the peak of it off market, and therefore -for most holders of gold- artificial. In real terms most people could not have bought or sold at 389, so in what sense was that a real price? After that it fell apart and came down. What is it doing down here in the 320s? Causing a lot of boredom. Are people waiting to see what will happen next? I am. From what I have been able to gather, gold buyers are waiting till they are sure. In my view, this gives gold sellers all the time to do everything they can to bring the price low. There have been plenty of buyers stepping in and out all the way to here from 380. First it stopped falling at around 350. Then it slowed in the 330s. Now, in the 320s, the majority of buyers are apparently still waiting. Time will tell. As events unfold, market manifestations will become clearer. Most of the public have been successfully deluded by news fabricators. These unfortunate people have no idea what reality is. They cannot be expected to jump in and buy gold unless the people who pull their strings pull their strings. It is a question of when these strings will be pulled. And the answer to that is, the strings will be pulled no sooner, and no later, than that time at which gold's move can be further maximized for the benefit of those who determine the string pullers' instructions. No, I am not a conspiracy nut. But I do know how they work. I have been involved with some of them myself, and their method is to wait for the right time, then jiggle the strings, catch the flying dollars, and stuff the money into their own pockets. The lower they can drive it, the more money they will make. The time will probably come, but not yet.
slingshotWaiting#1013034/14/03; 10:08:59

Goldbugs are always waiting for something. I do not know which is worse. Waiting for something to happen,or watching the Lemmings run to and through.

silvercollectorcoBra(too)#1013044/14/03; 10:34:23

"the globe holds its breath for the US producing the proverbial smoking gun."

Good quote.....and I heard this the other day..........

" hook or by crook the US will find the WMD in Iraq..."

John Ing was on the tube an hour ago, he predicts POG at $510 by year end. I am currently out of the PM market awaiting the WMD fiasco. I will join John's party after the 'discovery'.

mikal@Eleanor #1013054/14/03; 10:40:08

Re: "I fear" It is healthy to feel the potential of failure, after all, mistakes are our greatest teacher and nothing good comes without work.
Congratulations for buying and holding on basic principle and (un)common economic sense, and values few yet recognize.
IMHO, the PM's bull shifts slowly in her mother's womb before she emerges with great size.

slingshotWaiting again.#1013064/14/03; 10:43:11

See, I told you so. Silvercollector is waiting for the WMD fiasco. Me? I'm waiting for a top limit in the comex and thereafter a few days of $50.00 swings to get things going.

Shake, Rattle and Roll.

Mr GreshamRobotGuy & Eleanor of A.#1013074/14/03; 11:08:37

Good to see your posts, reflecting the thoughts of many. Sometimes the difference between hitting "Submit" and Cancel is just a breeze blowing freshly through a window. Me, too; me, too.

It really doesn't feel "fair" for us little dogs to have to speculate on the steps of Giants, trying to decipher footprints we find here or there, in order to attempt to salvage our financial futures. I guess it's always been this way, "where ignorant armies clash by night."

But all the other promises are more in question now than ever. People are admitting this, and when a herd turns...

"And we are here as on a darkling plain
Swept with confused alarms of struggle and flight,
Where ignorant armies clash by night."
-- Matthew Arnold, Dover Beach

TrurlSo what's wrong with this picture???#1013084/14/03; 11:16:06

I see that a numismatic dealer is selling a 1923 Peace dollar in uncirculated condition for $13. Or you can buy an uncirculated 1923 Silver certificate -- for $99.

This reminds me of the old TV game show Family Feud. There you didn't guess the right answer, you had to predict the answer most other people guessed.

I guess that is how you make money in Numismatics...
I guess the demand is in things people understand...

RobotGuyThank-you Slingshot, Eleanor of Aquitaine, and A Nation Of One#1013094/14/03; 11:18:13

To my friend Slingshot I would like to say that I will ride the bull or bear for the length of my existance. I had a passion for PM's as a child, and it has never left me. To me gold accumulation is similar to owning land,.. there's only so much of either, and you never really want to get rid of it. The only reason I like to monitor the POG is that of foolishness and selfishness. I am waiting for the rest of humanity to wake up and realize how very little of it there is, and scramble like madmen to get their piece. A kind of awakening I suppose.

Eleanor of Aquitaine, I don't believe I have had the pleasure. I am sure that the many posters in this forum have extended their welcome, as so do I. If your passion for gold is that for reason of investment have no fear. There are more individuals advocating gold now than I've ever seen in my entire life, and we all know how effective advertising is. Even if one percent of all individuals in North America exercised a productive interest in gold ownership it would make an overwhelming difference in the PM market,... It's happening.

A Nation Of One,.. All I could say is that you have given me a great compliment and thank-you.



RobotGuyMr. Gresham#1013104/14/03; 11:22:31

You have always been very kind Sir. Good to see you out!



JemeJordanU.S. NATIONAL DEBT CLOCK #1013114/14/03; 11:27:16

Forget Bushes Operation Iraqi Freedom (to secure their oil fields before the rest of the world does), Corporate earnings reports from (XYZCooked Books Inc) and the Bush dividend (Tax plan giveaway)

The real story is the US Nation Debt time Bomb, US Dollar Deflation or Inflation, Either way the Dollar is going BUST in our life time.


slingshotGetting rid of the FEAR#1013124/14/03; 11:36:58

Fear is a great survival attribute, but it should not control your life. First I want you to know I am in this Gold Game for the Long Haul. Short Comments. Got in at $325.00 and rode it down to $254 and back on up. Purchased gold on the downside and upside. Guess I broke some investment rules. Gold hung around $350.00 and re-evaluated my GOLDEN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY and Purchased some more. Then Gold go up to $380.00. I stop and hold and what happens? Gold reverses. Here it comes, $364.00 Brought some. Further $350.00 Brought some. Now at $321.00 I thought it would still go further south. Held on to FIAT. Waiting for Gold to go into the $200.00-$300.00 range. Waiting for gold to shift from weak hands to strong hands at a lower price. My fear is not the POG but the availability to purchase.
Can you imagine what I was thinking each time I checked the POG ;o) There's that word again.

Smile everyone.

slingshotTrurl , RobotGuy#1013134/14/03; 11:55:59

Trurl, Have seen that price for Peace Dollars for extra-fine to About uncir.Uncir. Going about $15.00 and higher if slabed.
RobotGuy, Yeah, only so much of it. :0)


OperativeThe Rewriting Of The Military Textbooks#1013144/14/03; 12:15:15

An old rule of thumb used to calculate expected losses of a military action was 3:1. The invading forces should expect to lose 3 men to every 1 of the defending forces. Today, it is I who is in shock & awe. The US has just liberated, set free, the people of Iraq with less than 200 (closer to 100) soldiers lost. Maybe some military history buffs can answer a question? Has there ever been an entire country ever "liberated" in an action of war where the invading forces suffered less than 200 lost? Perhaps the people of Syria will be the next to be given thier "freedom". I will have to check my calender, but I think maybe I will finally "free" Cuba by myself this weekend.

Black Blade, your famous line of "interesting times" has got to be the understatment of the new millieum.

JemeJordanThe Rewriting Of The Military Textbooks#1013154/14/03; 12:27:20

Yes and how about that North Korean about US policy face last week, maybe they were also afraid your Neighbor were going to invade!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Great Money Giveaway obscures Strong Dollar Policy#1013164/14/03; 12:57:05

Swiss gold francs
Gold Today!

Because the phrase "strong dollar policy" is sounding anemic.

While the Treasury Department's half-hearted rhetoric about a "strong dollar" sounds ever less like policy and ever more like pabulum for the media, the FOMC target rate (at 1.25%) by the Federal Reserve (with a bank lifeline discount rate at 0.75%) tells the score loud and clear. In recent Congressional testimony Chairman Greenspan said that there is no "meaningful limit" to the Fed's power to inject money into the economy. And consider the dollar's legacy position as a reserve asset currently being held throughout the world. These are the things that sudden financial crisis and hyperinflations are made of.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.
How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.

CoBra(too)@ Mr. Gresham#1013174/14/03; 12:57:25

Your 101307 has touched a nerve with me.

Unfortunately, I usually think after (of pressing -submit-)the fact and have my real doubts.
On the other hand I probably would never have and never would post(ed), if I'd go back with a tooth comb.

As usual, I detect more and more omissions of what I would and have should expressed - though my mind is usually front running my typing skills.

That said, I still feel that something more ominous is ng on and the real menace to us, our liberty and more important the future of the next generations is compromised by it.

Being a grandpa of 2 baby girls, I fear for their future as I fear for the future of my own grown up kids. As the social security is breaking apart in most of the Western Nations - even I may be victim to this dilemma -, where social unrest is flaring up again.

Considering the ongoing 401K and structured company pension plans everywhere, underfunded, though paid up over years by the employed.- A disaster of mega uphieval is in the cards.
The further unfunded medicare-, aid, wellfare is going to be the next victim of this hedonic state of government affairs. And all of that coming atop of an incredibly optimistic forecast of a government budget surplus - turned to the extreme opposite - as was to be expected after the Clinton/Rubin brain washing of all of us.

Personally, I do feel we're close to an endgame. The Fiat monetary system based on hedonic economic performance has been found out as a farce - as productivity gains are nothing more than fewer employed working their asses off in order not to join the bread lines - and the rest is anecdotal - not to say Greenspin!

Now - before going into total Nirvana - as my rants usually go - MR. G. please, I beg you tell me what to do - except buying gold - not as hedge for my portfolio, which already is in gold and its proxies - No, my query is, what can we do to rectify the burden our generation has already put on to future generations?

Seems to me the generational contract has been breached by us to the detriment of our successors.

This may not be only a financial burden, as we've really raped everything the world has to offer. Resources, down to arable land, water and even the air we breathe. Kind'a neat inheritance we'll leave to our kids.

Even leaving some real property (aka. Ari) like gold won't make up for our generation's sins and misdeeds.

What you sow, you'll reap - will we deserve any better!?

Not re-reading again - though with some temerity - cb2

CoBra(too)OK - from here on I'll edit myself... Sorry -#1013184/14/03; 13:13:19

Still, as an afterthought or is it omission - our generation is leaving the future world without a compass.

Monetarily without the constraints of a gold backing!
and what's more - we've broke the nucleus of civilization - the family! ... Thank you for listening - cb2

TownCrierSpeaking of "no 'meaningful limit' to the Fed's power to inject money"...#1013194/14/03; 13:31:40

The Federal Reserve today added $6.922 billion dollars to the banking system.

$5.5 billion of this were temporary reserves added through three-day repurchase agreements in open market operations.

The balance was a "permanent" addition through an outright purcahse by the Fed of Treasury coupons. This is already the second time (that I'm aware of) in seven days that the Federal Reserve has engaged in the outright purchase of Treasuries to add permanent cash to the nation's banking system.

Where the stealthy "tax" of inflation lurks and looms ever larger, put yourself in a "tax free zone" with a diversification out of weakening dollars and into hard assets such as gold. Call Centennial for assistance with your exchange.


a nation of one. . .#1013204/14/03; 13:34:53

The natural value of everything is zero. The only reason things have value is because humans exist and hold them dearly to some extent. For the value of a Porche to go to zero, nobody has to do anything, or, said better, it requires no action. For its price to go up, somebody has to do something. If nobody does anthing there is no action. If there is no action, it is the same as if there were no people. If there are no people, a Porche has no value. Unless desired by aliens. But we're talking about 'people' here. As long as everybody does nothing, gold will continue to be plundered. Or, if some people are interested, maybe it will just stay where it is. But for gold to go up, somebody has to do something. To be effective, action has got to be determined. People are waiting to commit. The signs are in. Those who have knowledge understand that gold is below where it should be, that the situation is significantly controlled, manipulated, managed, speculatively deployed, that news events can be created which will bring about ostensibly desireable market events, and that these will be temporary, and that when the cows come home, the chickens will start flying. In other words, gold will go up. But it will be because people will be doing what is necessary to cause it. They could take such action now, but they are afraid. Is the bottom going to fall out? Is the bottom going to hold? Are these the kind of questions men ask about their lawns? Do they ask, "Is the grass going to be cut?" Or, "Is there going to be enough gas in the mower?" No. They go out and get gas. They put it into their mower. They go outside and cut the stuff. Here we are. Men and women are saying, "Is gold going to go up?" When they have already the wherewithal to make it go up, if they will do it. I am doing my part. I am writing you these little love notes. I am holding on to my gold. And I am holding on to my contracts. I will continue to do so. I am prepared to lose every cent. I will answer every margin call all the way to zero, because that is what is needed to really be a strong hand. Maybe I will be wiped out. I don't know. But if I am, I will always know that I did what I knew was needed, to make possible the best for myself. Sure, maybe it won't happen. But I have created the possibility. And it can't happen unless I do. That can never be changed. And in the case that I lose everything, even centuries from now, if someone asks me if I was wiped out, I would be able to tell them, "Yes I was. But you know what? The money I would have made would have been gone by now, but knowing that I did what was necessary to make the best possible will always be with me." That has no price. And I know from personal experience that if you make the best possible, the best will happen enough to make it more than worthwhile. And since I will always be human, that will always have value. Can't spend it. Can't be stolen. This life is temporary. Short. It makes no sense to live it in any way but that which makes possible the best. I can see that this does. Therefore I do it. Please tell me I am insane. That will assure me that I am way ahead of you in this.
GonlyoldHelping the Future of Our Posterity#1013214/14/03; 14:00:12

CoBra(Too), I'd like to offer a suggestion which has been posted on this site many times and which cannot be understated: Don't borrow money and don't use credit. If you want to put away something for your grandchildren, put away a debt free inheritance. I think you mentioned that you're prepared to satisfy a margin call. I wish to be kind, but supporting the banks is akin to supporting oppression. I avoid them, the banks, like the plague. I also avoid using credit when using rental cars and motels. Admittedly it's not always easy and certainly not convenient. But I feel that I am doing my part to help this country prosper. I don't wish to even attempt to have you run your life like mine, but I would value you as an asset to our plight if you did stay away from the banks. Have gold - good. Have debt - bad.
GonlyoldCorrection#1013224/14/03; 14:02:43

Sorry, I just noticed that it was A Nation of One who spoke of margin calls, not CoBra (too). My apologies.
Operative@ Nation of One & Gonlyold#1013234/14/03; 14:26:46

An encouraging word to fight the good fight.

"If we stayed at home and did nothing, doom would find us anyway, sooner or later."

-Treebeard, Book III, Chapter 4
The Lord of The Rings

TownCrierTreasury pabulum#10132404/14/03; 14:52:26

April 14 (Reuters) -
"My predecessors and I have had a consistent response to all dollar questions that reflects our belief in a strong dollar and that a strong dollar is in the best interest of the United States," [U.S. Treasury Secretary John] Snow said after a speech in Indianapolis.

-----(from url)------

It is easy to mouth these words, and in fact, it would be disastrous not to. For example, Nixon officials reaffirmed their commitment to the gold convertibility of the dollar for gold at $35 per ounce right up until the time it was suddenly suspended without warning, Sunday August 15th, 1971.


R PowellSilver news or technical trading?#10132504/14/03; 15:02:51

I've just returned home but, even without searching the news, I'll guess that no news of any consequence concerning silver was forthcoming today. So, the news is that the POS diverged from gold today and will be explained as fund positioning or short covering or some such little understood phenomenon. The link above goes to the COT as of 4/8/03 at which time both the commercial and big specs were short. The so-called small specs were about 20,000 contracts long. I doubt that these positions are for sale until POS appreciates appreciably from current levels. If this guess is correct, then which of the big players is buying or, which is selling? Some say that the big commercials rarely lose but they were 20,000 contracts short as of 4/8/03 and POS has not fallen since then so... should we reason that they are adding to their shorts and the big specs are buying? Should we also assume that this portents that POS will soon decline so that the commercials can once again buy back their shorts at a lower (profitable) price? Myself, I'm not convinced that the commercials profit much more than the big specs, I'd guess that the big specs (non commercials) are doing the buying .... this Friday's COT will help solve the mystery for whatever it's worth. The unusual to be noted, perhaps, is that the small long positions did not flinch during the last downturn. That is why I don't believe they are now selling. Diehard silver believers??

RobotGuy-- post away, I always enjoy your words.

CoBra(too)-- I once discussed the possible end of the current fiat monetary system with a local bank president. He did not disagree that the whole system could implode but he was not shocked or concerned at all. He simply stated that whatever occured would be washed out (Resolution Trust type action) and that the game would start anew. He has no fear and no remorse at passing on any monetary problems (debt) to the next generation. Then again, I'll bet he also owns no gold. When making a final tally of what we're passing on to the next generation, please also include all the positive advances of our time. Before he died, I once asked of my father what he considered to be the best improvement to mankind that occured during his generation. Without missing a heartbeat, he replied, "indoor plumbing". "Consider", he said, "having the flu before the advent of antibiotics, and having to run to the outhouse in the middle of winter." I didn't disagree with him.

Schrolling down on the linked page will also give gold's COT numbers if I've typed the link correctly.

Mr GreshamCoBra(too)#10132604/14/03; 15:08:48

Actually, I was going to include you in that "good to hear from you" note, because you seemed back to your old adventure-to-read self. But I wanted to say some more, so I waited. And, as usual, with waiting, nothing then happened. (Each time I go "Clink, clink", it's a time I didn't just wait, and I kind of amaze myself at actually having taken an action, rather than over-analyzing...)

As for the younger generations, I agree with your thoughts (which I did not have time to read carefully) but I think they'll have a way to equalize it all. After all, they have the one "commodity" we are soon to find in short supply: Time. When I think that my daughter has maybe 9 decades more in which to wend her way through this world, while mine are 3 or 4, I don't feel so guilty.

As the retirement plans melt down, I think we'll be finding ways to remind them of their filial obligations to feed us. And as I posted recently, having a big empty house to invite the succeeding generations to come live in, may be one of our small salvations. Til later, friend.

MKThe Iraq Debt Bomb#10132704/14/03; 15:10:07

There is a great deal more to this Iraq debt situation than meets the eye. Time magazine published an article a few hours ago -- titled the Iraq Debt Bomb -- in which they referred to the Iraqi $285 billion debt as "titanic." Beyond the direct debt, Iraq has a $300 billion reparations bill due Kuwait. Like the decapitation attack that came suddenly out of the Iraqi night, the enormity of the problem has blind-sided the international economy. This is a complicated problem.

Paul Wolfowitz, the Defense Department neo-con war hawk, called over the weekend for Russia, Germany, France and various Arab nations to forgive Iraq's debts -- in toto. One wonders if he would be so understanding, forthcoming or forgiving if the shoe were on the other foot. In other words, would the United States be willing to forgive Argentina, Brazil or Mexico's debts under similar circumstances -- debts primarily owed to US international banks.

It seems that the Iraq debt situation was a prime item on the agenda when Russia, Germany and France met in St. Petersburg last week. Reuters characterized the German and French response as "cool" to the notion of forgiving the debt. This is what Putin had to say: "This is what happened: someone did the shooting, someone did the looting and someone must pay for the fun. On the whole, the proposal [on writing off the debt] is clear and has the right to exist. We would not object to this issue being put on the G8 agenda in Evian." I would classify those remarks as "pointed." Putin has since tied the debt question to the reconstruction business in Iraq -- something in which he would like to see Russian companies participate. No doubt, Germany and France are similarly disposed.

This raises an interesting question:

Since Iraq is a protectorate of the United States for the interim, will the American people become responsible for the Iraqi debt? Time magazine seems to think they are. In an article published a few hours ago on the internet, the magazine concludes that ". . .at least initially, U.S. officials are planning to make all decisions about Iraq's economy, with help from local advisers. If that doesn't change, debt relief may be a hard sell with the Europeans — and U.S. taxpayers will end up paying the price."

One can see why Wolfowitz might like The St. Petersburg Group bite the bullet on this. What this would translate to on this side of the Atlantic is another bailout -- pure and simple. And that on top of the $80 billion war bill, plus the cost of reconstruction. This could get out of hand in a hurry. Needless to say, since no one wants to talk about raising taxes in this less than stellar economy, it seems that much of the debt, war reparations and war cost will be "Bernanke'd" out of existence. That is to say, further destruction in the dollar's purchasing power might just be a few key strokes away.

At the moment, after all the hullabaloo about Iraq's oil (the second largest Gulf producer, etc.), we are talking about roughly $15 billion in oil revenue annually -- and that, lest we forget, comes with our old pal, the UN's, approval Let's do the math: With $285 billion in debts, $300 billion in war reparations, $80 billion in war costs and (let's be kind) $100 billion in reconstruction costs, Iraq will have paid it all back in 51 years, and that's assuming they do not care to take any profits from that revenue to be plowed into the Iraqi economy.

One is reminded of Germany right after World War I -- a similarly intractable debt situation which led to the nightmare German inflation and then the Hitler regime. As an aside, going back to pre World War I history, it too was characterized by new and far-reaching alliances that pulled one nation after another over the cliff in 1914.

One can see one of four possible outcomes:

First, the St. Petersburg group (and moderate Arab states) bite(s) the bullet in which case you face the prospect of cascading debt defaults through the international banking system (particularly with respect to Russia). Who knows what else is out there besides Russia.

Second, they defer leaving the United States to inflate its way out of the proxy debt problem (like it always does), but then you have the problem of dollar value and acceptability around the world.

Third, we go "debt for oil." St. Petersburgh Iraq debt holdings for Iraq/US oil.

Fourth, a deal is made on reconstruction and I'm not talking about just the infrastructure.

I can say one thing for certain. The St. Petersburg group is unlikely to roll over on this one. Not after everything that has happened over the last few weeks. And I can say too that is unlikely that the United States will roll over either. So where does that put the world economy?

As I say, there's a lot more to this than meets the eye. You can be sure, it will be an interesting G-8 meeting in Evian next month.

- - - -

Gold remains the one primary portfolio asset which is not someone else's liability.

- - - - -

segel_fliegerRe: the REAL war... slowly being made public#10132804/14/03; 15:16:59

Buena Fe writes;
>Bush issues new warning to Syria
>President says Iraqi neighbor 'needs to cooperate' with U.S.

It's been mentioned here before, but it won't hurt to mention it again. One of the major fundamentals that will affect the value of the US$ relative to other foreign currencies is the "Project for a New American Century". If you haven't heard of it, take the time to educate yourself and your friends about it. You can find all kinds of information with a simple Google search, I like the above article because it also provides links to references.

Given that many countries want to devalue their currency relative to the US$ to encourage exports to the US, this slugfest of competitive devaluations has important long term consequences for gold.

CoBra(too)Hi - Rich - Remember I'm an Austrian -#10132904/14/03; 15:18:21

... And I was not referring to the Australian type of 'head' - when two consigns gave up on cleaning the same ...

... So we stand aloof
they can't s-#&t on the roof
the only place clean
in our latrine!?!

Silver may be another cleansing factor! - Love Tiffany ... Too - cb2

CoBra(too)Debts Owed ...#10133004/14/03; 15:59:00

... Un-redeemable - so choose your preferred means of efault.

It's kind of pathetic to see a formerly free society being taking over by scavengers of the greatest constitution ever to have existed. As I still feel close to so many great 'merican friends, looted by their own (though elected government), I feel really saddened by the hedonic mis-reporting of the so called free press.

And in the end I wouldn't wonder if the last vestiges of free reporting, as experienced on this more than valuable site - just might be un-avaible at some time in the future.

At that stage we might conceive George Orwell's "1984" as reality. I already reckon it'll happen in due course.

MK, thanks for the message - though debts owed to international US Banks (and some others) - one might add via IMF and World Bank solutions - god forbid - and one might further add ... why the the intermission (uh, oh, if that's the political correct word)
... can't be greenmail? No, Never - ever!!!

Otherwise, or likewise I totally agree with you.
(Seems my spelling in some former capitals are obsolete now-a-days; Please forgive me as I'm a retro-con) ... cb2

PS: Mr. G - always appreciate your input - No stress, friend!

21mabryIraqi debt#10133104/14/03; 16:19:00

MK,about 8 days ago I watched an interview discussing iraqs debt,he gave the 300 billion figure.He also stated we need to get Iraq to turn a profit.I wonder who the profit wiil go to. 21
TownCrierWeekly WGC gold market review#10133204/14/03; 16:34:58

The past week has seen gold improve from its low last Monday of just over $318/ounce to trade up towards $329/ounce by the end of the week, before failing at the overhead resistance.

The obliteration of the "war premium" among speculative players has now given way to tentative improvements in the price as the oversold position has been unwound, and physical investors have continued to feature as buyers.

CoBra(too)MK- G8 Meeting in Evian -#10133304/14/03; 16:37:17

... Again a repulsive pick - the # 2 after Perrier and other freedom fries synonym!

Can't believe the world travelled all this way to just fall back to meaningless hysterics.

Pick up your barbarous relic by the gram, ounce, pound, kilo and bars and close out the noise - cb2

Operative@ MK Re: Iraq Debt Bomb#10133404/14/03; 17:01:59

Still, all the debts owed by the entire country of Iraq seem to pale in comparison when you consider that just one US Bank has in excess of 20 Trillion in derivatives. Imagine that, JPM stands to lose more than an entire country. HMMM...wonder if JPM has the final holding on the Iraq Debt?
Or perhaps part of the reconstruction plans for Iraq include an Internal Revenue Service to collect huge taxes from Iraqi Citizens to "pay off" these debts?? Hows this for an easy solution: the US confiscates all the gold in Iraq, in turn, we will pay off thier entire debt load by printing a few more paper dollars? What a mess!!!

TownCrierMK mentioned the 'Nightmare German Inflation'; read about it here#10133504/14/03; 17:03:17

The many parallels between 1924 Germany and present-day United States are cause for concern. We have not yet reached the depths to which Germany descended in that era, but few can look at the constant depreciation of the dollar since the early 1970's and fail to be alarmed. It seems we differ from 1924 Germany only in the duration between cause and effect. While the German experience was compressed over a few short years, ours has been more protracted. I think this has occurred for two good reasons: First, American central bankers have learned enough from the German experience to delay and extend the consequences of printing too much fiat money. Second, Germany was a small state isolated from the rest of the world --- a pariah nation of sorts --- and, as a result, it had a difficult time finding a market for its government bonds. German deficits had to be financed internally --- an impossibility which greatly accelerated the printing of fiat currency.

Up until recently, the United States enjoyed a strong world-wide demand for its government bonds, so the negative affects of government deficits were subdued. But now low interest rates, and a growing fear among G-7 nations that U.S. deficits are out of control, has greatly curtailed foreign bond purchases. The Fed has been forced to monetize an ever larger portion of the debt as a result. This is the modern equivalent of "printing money". Whether or not we are out of control seems to be a matter for debate. The trend, however, is alarming. The largest deficit during the Nixon years was $ 23.4 billion; Ford --- $ 73.7 billion; Reagan --- $221.2 billion; Bush --- $290 billion; Clinton --- $350 billion. This, to say the least, is a frightening progression.

As this report points out, the correlation between deficits and inflation is sacrosanct ---deficits lead to inflation and uncontrolled deficits lead to uncontrolled inflation. Whether or not there will be a Nightmare American Inflation remains to be seen. Let it be said though that the trend is not favorable. The survivors of the German debacle did so by purchasing gold and rare coins early in the process. As a citizen and an investor, the best you can do is prepare, and then hope against hope that it doesn't happen here. This report of Germany's hyperinflation, originally published in 1970 by Scientific Market Analysis, could play an important part in that preparation process. There is little doubt it will affect your thinking. ---MK


If history teaches anything, it is that government cannot be trusted to manage money. When currency is not redeemable in gold, its value depends entirely on the judgment and the conscience of the politicians. (That is the situation in this country today.)

Especially in an economic crisis or a war, the pressure to inflate becomes overwhelming. Any alternative may seem politically disastrous. Whether it be the Roman emperors repeatedly debasing their coinage, the French revolutionary government printing a flood of assignats, John Law flooding France with debased money, or the Continental Congress issuing money until it was literally "not worth a Continental," the story is similar. A government in financial straits finds its easiest recourse is to issue more and more money until the money loses its value. The entire process is accompanied by a barrage of explanations, propaganda and new regulations which hide the true situation from the eyes of most people until they have lost all their savings....

------(see url for full text)-------

MKMabry21#10133604/14/03; 17:55:55

Trying to get a hard figure on the Iraq debt situation is like trying to nail jello to the wall. I decided to go with what I could discern after reading about ten articles on the subject. One problem: The figure for the external debt I intended to use was $385 billion not $285 billion. Sorry for the error. In some instances the Kuwait reparations are included in the total. In others they are not. Time magazine put the total at $200 to $300 billion including the reparations. Reuters put the external debt at $142 billion with up to $300 billion in war reparations. The Washington Post put the Iraq debt at between "$60 billion and several hundred billion." I still don't know whether $300 billion in reparations needs to be added to the $385 external debt. Well, you get the idea.

The post I put together I did hastily after losing a better one to the internet somewhere. (Yes, that happens to me too). My goal was to start people thinking about a very serious problem that many are overlooking that is sure to have major implications for the world economy and relations between the most advanced industrialized nations. Few people know this but the Warburgs warned right after Versailles that the reparation load placed on the German people as a result of World War I would lead to a fracturing of Europe and greater problems down the road. He had a stake in that and eventually was forced to leave Germany as the Nazi regime took hold. We'll see what happens here, but this is no small problem. If anyone has better data for us Iraq's actual debt load, please post it. One things certain: Someone is going to have to pay for all this and for any extensions to the Gulf war effort. As I said when, Woolsey made the World War IV comments, wars cost money and you get it either from the people in the form of a direct tax, or the indirect method called currency inflation.

Thanks, Randy for putting up the German Nightmare Inflation link. That study says it in a nutshell for anyone with an interest.

Aristotlenation of one (msg#: 101320) -- interesting post, but something doesn't compute#10133704/14/03; 18:24:06

You raised some interesting points on self-fulfilling actions on rising Gold prices, but what you're trying to avoid being *forced* to do against your will in the shortrun doesn't strike me substantially different than what you'll do of your free will at the end of your plan.

You said,
= = = =
Men and women have "the wherewithal to make it go up, if they will do it. I am doing my part. ...I am holding on to my contracts. I will continue to do so. I am prepared to lose every cent. I will answer every margin call all the way to zero, because that is what is needed to really be a strong hand."
= = = =
Can I stand here and tell you that's financially obscene? Between now and contract expiry, let's pretend that you're not completely wiped out by margin calls. Or let's pretend that the price stays even. Or heck, let's pretend that it goes up a little. So basically, you held firm to your convictions of being a "strong hand" and didn't sell the contracts "prematurely" (i.e., against your will) but rather you held them to a later in its lifetime at which point you will still be SELLING them ALL THE SAME prior to expiry to liquidate your position. Where's the heroic principle in that -- selling on Friday instead of Wednesday?!!

Don't try to pull the wool over anyone's eyes around here, including your own. There's no way you're gonna hold these contracts for physical settlement because, if that was your intention all along, you wouldn't be worried about margin calls wiping you out. That's because your final cost for exercising that form of settlement (physical) was in fact established and locked in and known to you on that day you took the long side of your contracts.

I like your heart, fella, I really do, but oooomffph, please seek some professional financial help before you fritter away whatever wealth you have left! My advice remains the same, and if you want a second opinion, I'm sure there are some kindly souls around here who'd be happy to give you some fatherly words of guidance.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

silvercollectorslingshot#10133804/14/03; 18:40:46

I've been wrong so many times getting myself into a position that 'should have been' instead of what 'will happen'.

Not this time.

I've got my nestegg of physical, in this regard I merely await the inevitable, the long term, steady 'depreciation' of this planet. In the long term, and I find it hard to debate this any other way, this planet will be on the rocks.

In the short term I'm going to await this WMD thing. I repeat the quote from earlier today, "the globe holds its breath for the US producing the proverbial smoking gun."
IMHO, this is such a swing point, this is the McDonalds game break. The US/UK will be able or will not be able to justify it's invasion of Iraq.

After seeing the fierce debate between Scott Ritter and Tierney the other day I did a 'search' on Scott Ritter and this man has been very busy since Gulf War 1. In my limited view, the completely opposite opinions of the 2 men is very much what the big picture has in store for us. It is identical to the globe vs. US/UK debate; is Iraq a threat or not?

If the US is vindicated (the war was necessary) there will be a rush of money, forgiven debts etc. and Bush and Blair will be hero's. If there are no WMD as Scott Ritter has adamantly charged the US/UK will be shunned.

This is a ballsy call by B&B, all the money have been bet on one hand. I left the table a long time ago and I will attempt to catch the train one way or the other, literally.

Good luck.


TownCrierU.S. Treasuries lose ground for a third day#10133904/14/03; 19:13:04

CHICAGO, April 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices dropped for a third consecutive session on Monday, continuing to factor in what seems like a brighter economic outlook.

-------(see url)-----

Looking forward, one has to ask if the recovery, when it comes, can possibly be beneficial to the dollar.

Consider, the bond market is far larger than the stock market. Will all of those dollar-denominated bond holders be willing to absorb principal/pricing losses in the bond market as expectations of recovery (and higher interest rates) take hold? As market interest rates rise from preemptive dishoarding of bonds, this puts/keeps the equity markets on the ropes as corporations find that their new borrowing becomes more costly.

Will the Fed continue its easy money policy in order to feed the economic recovery? Of course it will. Even if it has to become the bond buyer of last resort. Again, in a world full of dollars/bonds sitting almost idly as reserve assets, can this possibly inspire a continuation of confidence in those positions? No.

Protect your purchasing power with a diversification into gold. Call Centennial tomorrow to make arrangements suitable to your personal portfolio needs.


a nation of oneReply to Aristotle (04/14/03; 18:24:06MT - msg#: 101337)#10134004/14/03; 20:57:14

I respect your comments. But you don't understand what I am doing. This is probably because I have not
stated it with sufficient clarity. The approach I am taking consists of a wide range of concepts, some of
which differ profoundly from common practice, but which I believe are consistent with reality. I am kind of
an unusual person. My life goals are not the same as those of most people. I began my quest when I was five
or six and have been applying it for a long time. Interacting with markets is only one aspect of my interests.
One thing that I have seen is that what appears to be the thinking that our civilization is based on consists
substantially of erroneous conclusions. Many of these are still in place even though better thinking has been
developed and has been available for thousands of years. The markets are not immune to this. Rather, they
often employ such elements deliberately, and they also sometimes employ others unknowingly. The Internet
enables people to converse on these insights. Previously there was no practical way to do this, except on a
personal bases, which severely limits communication of ideas like these for a number of reasons. One
problem is that it is hard to find anyone who is interested. But on a forum like this, if a thousand people read
what I write, a few will know what I am talking about, and will have had similar thoughts themselves. That's
all I am trying to do. All I am doing is pointing out some patterns of behavior that are available to everyone,
if they want to assume the risk themselves and apply them. I am aware that I might be completely wrong. I
also know from experience that feeling completely wrong usually accompanies radical ideas, and that in
environments where the people are carrying a burden of inadequately developed behavioral patterns
-developed under circumstances dominated by inaccurate perceptions, among other things- any careful
statement of a basic truth will seem radical. I don't want to go on too long here, since that would be asking
too much. But there are a number of assumptions that you make with regard to my actions, which are not my
actions at all.

melda laureOil Mortgage for sale#10134104/14/03; 21:41:39

"I want a piece of this magnificent cake" -Leopold.

I ought to address my response to Aristotles comments on my last post, but first off, tonights discussion:

MK, you put the Iraqi debt in the 300 to 400 billion range. I have heard it said that Iraqi oil production is in the 3 billion barrels per year range (and lots of arguments on what it takes to get that to 6 or 7 BPY); someone on the news put the total "profits" at about 5$/bbl or about 15 gigabucks/yr. Stipulating your debt figures as correct, we're looking at 20 years to pay up (no consideration given to interest or inflation). Add in another 150 billion for war costs and reconstruction of infrastructure and this thing barely floats. Put up 30yr (dollar) bonds at 0% and you might just pay it all back before the wells run dry.

And now that we're on the subject of re-financing I can address the issue of a new Iraqi central bank. As I said before, not being an expert on these matters I honestly assert I have no idea what will happen, but the issue seems to be fast approaching, with little thought given in the press. What this issue bodes for gold and oil I dont know but it strikes me as an opportunity for really sweet backroom deals for somebody.

Here's a quick thought to show the stickiness of the issue: If I were the new iraqi congress I'd want to re-finance in the weakest currency for a long time (30yrs plus). The bonds would become worthless soon enough. The temptation is to borrow in dollars. But that only GUARANTEES that oil will be sold for dollars until the DEBT IS PAID OFF especially if the dollar starts sinking. (in the event that the dollar were to rise or hold up too strongly then Iraq might be forced into an IMF fandango- and oil is STILL sold for dollars.)

melda laureOil Mortgage - rest of post#10134204/14/03; 21:45:07

Sorry, didn't post the whole thing the first time...

I ought to address my response to Aristotles comments on my last post, but first off, tonights discussion.

MK, you put the Iraqi debt in the 300 to 400 billion range. I have heard it said that Iraqi oil production is in the 3 billion barrels per year range (and lots of arguments on what it takes to get that to 6 or 7 BPY); someone on the news put the total "profits" at about 5$/bbl or about 15 gigabucks/yr. Stipulating your debt figures as correct, we're looking at 20 years to pay up (no consideration given to interest or inflation). Add in another 150 billion for war costs and reconstruction of infrastructure and this thing barely floats. Put up 30yr (dollar) bonds at 0% and you might just pay it all back before the wells run dry.

And now that we're on the subject of re-financing I can address the issue of a new Iraqi central bank. As I said before, not being an expert on these matters I honestly assert I have no idea what will happen, but the issue seems to be fast approaching, with little thought given in the press. What this issue bodes for gold and oil I dont know but it strikes me as an opportunity for really sweet backroom deals for somebody.

Here's a quick thought to show the stickiness of the issue: If I were the new iraqi congress I'd want to re-finance in the weakest currency for a long time (30yrs plus). The bonds would become worthless soon enough. The temptation is to borrow in dollars. But that only GUARANTEES that oil will be sold for dollars until the DEBT IS PAID OFF especially if the dollar starts sinking. (in the event that the dollar were to rise or hold up too strongly then Iraq might be forced into an IMF fandango- and oil is STILL sold for dollars.)

(missing conclusion):

So, as I see it, the winner isn't the guy who gets PAID; but rather the nation that does the LOANING (think Lat Am). In effect, offering to renegociate the re-mortgaging of Iraq for "dollars" or "euros" or any other large pile of billions of fiat, which will then have to be recycled into REAL oil shipments and the return of the imaginary money. If I were Chiraq, I'd offer to foot the whole bill (I really ought to shut up now). Other candidates for this "Philanthropy" masquerade: Saudis, China, Japan, hmmm.

Issued with warnings and apologies to Aristotle for any shrapnel wounds; I've been woolgathering; next time I'll be more careful about those ceramic foundations: there's a lot of sharp edges when the edifice shatters.

mikalFed up with Fed feeding frenzy#10134304/14/03; 21:56:41

The governments using fiat will always censor news and divert attention from money issues.
John Maynard Keynes in 1919 said: "There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose."

Socialist Money: Federal Reserve Notes (or any of the other central bank managed fiat moneys globally), counterfeit money.
The Fed has a government enforced monopoly on the issuance of money within U.S. borders. So they don't face the profit and loss discipline of the market.
The private central bank can't get the vital signals that a truly private company gets to guide its actions. If the Fed printed too much money last year, should the Fed even be "in business"?
And the rate of interest; without a free market in money and loans no one can know where it should be. If the Fed starts printing enough money to give wallpaper a bad name, then they're history. Monetizing can only go so far to maintain the illusion of "economic recovery". Higher rates and hidden liquidity notwithstanding.
Consider that the land the federal and state bureaucracies manage, isn't exactly apportioned sensibly, be it for parks, agricultural and industrial development, housing or mining, etc. Without real prices from a real market, the gubmint doesn't sustainably control the things it socializes.
Socialist money makes as much sense as socialist schools, tenemants and food stamps for all.
The answer? Replace the socialist system with market freedom.
Why keep the private central bank? Get the government out of the money business. The amount of currency and coin and the interest rate would be decided by voluntary market exchanges and cooperation.

goldenboyMelda Laure; MK; Iraqi Oil Revenues#10134404/14/03; 22:32:16

The benefit of taxing some of the Iraqi oil offtake to pay for a portion of the war costs is a trifling amount compared to the benefit of causing the marginal price of oil to fall. When they get the volume up, then provided they are at the controls, then it seems to me the US will have the ability to increase supply and drop the price. Even if the west makes nothing on the Iraqi oil, how much do they save if they can reduce the barrel price by $5?
melda laureGoldenboy#10134504/14/03; 23:23:06

Yes, exactly, I belive that was my point. It's not the return on the loan that matters, but the instrumentality of the Loan as a sort of golden thumbscrew to prime the juice flow and keep dollar oil flowing hither.

Bankers more dangerous than standing armies, etc, etc.

AristotleSome feedback for a nation of one#10134604/14/03; 23:58:16

Well, buddy, if it's as you say, and you're truly hoping to influence people by your own example, then you're gonna hafta try a little harder to explain your strategy to me.'Cause my guess is that if I'm not gettin' it, lots of others are confused too.

My distinct impression was that you had taken the long side of some Gold futures contracts. As the price started heading south, you vowed to us that you wouldn't be shaken out of you position -- that you'd do whatever it took to meet your margin calls. You posted that if Gold got below a certain level it would be uncomfortable, and if it got lower still you'd be angry, and if it got to yet some lower level than that, you'd cry, etc. etc but you'd hold on all the way to past your breaking point if you had to.

It seemed to me that you thought something would be accomplished if you made your margin calls and resisted selling.

I'm merely pointing out that it seems like a futile exercise in financial pain. Giving you the benefit of the doubt, let's say you are able to hang on and meet your margin calls without liquidating your long positions. Great. You didn't have to sell your contracts. Now, you tell me, how exactly do you intend to exit your position?

My guess it that you'll be a seller one day, some day sometime before expiration of the contracts.

What net good have you done not selling out on Wednesday only to turn seller on Friday? At the end of the week, you've spent lots of money yet haven't taken any Physical off the market. Furthermore, you've sent us into the weekend having incrementally added a little downward pricing pressure to New York brand Gold.

Tell ya what... you promise to tell me what day you intend to exit your position as you join ranks with the paperGold sellers to offset your position, and I'll go stand in Another line (the right one) to be buying real Gold that same day. Best wishes for a lucrative outcome for you on that day. I know it will be Another good day for me, adding to the pile.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

mikal@SKI#10138504/16/03; 00:00:13

Re: Nuggets
That looks like fun! Many of us enjoyed your silver "lists" last year, though there was much to digest in one sitting. It helped to reread them on other forums, but being a goldbug mainly, you should have surmised my level of silver comprehension. But your investment "Nuggets" sound like kernels to chew one step at a time, like FOA's gold trail? There really is no end to either trail, its continuous.
Now seems a perfect time for such foundational posting, as the gold market resumes trend and the world recovers from oppressive war news.

skiGolden Nuggets .... Proverbs#1013864/16/03; 00:10:14

1. R. Prechter "Those who have not studied markets (or ski would add, are not following the advice of proven market professionals) should not be investing, they should be saving, which means acting to protect principal, not to generate a return when they do not know how."

2. R. Prechter "The truth is that making money in markets is normally difficult; in fact, for most people, it is impossible." (Be especially aware of money that is easily made.)

3. J. Dines "Amateurs know the rules (of investing), but seasoned professionals know the exceptions."

4. J. Burnstein "(No matter what expert writings' you study) ... We always arrive at the inescapable conclusion that profitable trading in stocks and futures can only be achieved by individuals who are either extremely fortunate or extremely disciplined. Discipline is a rubric under which are subsumed such quintessential skills and qualities as self-control, consistency, organization, persistence, direction, insight, and the ability to take action when necessary. Unfortunately these are skills which cannot be learned easily or quickly."

5. B. Baruch "No law can protect a man from his own errors. The main reason why money is lost in stock speculations is not because Wall Street is dishonest, but because so many people persist in thinking that you can make money without working for it and that the stock exchange is the place where this miracle can be performed."

6. The market is far wiser than any one individual. The market reflects the sum total of people's opinions. The market is always RIGHT at any given moment.

7. Markets are ruled by emotion; if they were not, there would be no markets. If the markets functioned as perfect economic systems, prices woud always be at the RIGHT level. Human nature combined with uncertainty form emotionalism which feeds volatility which generate WRONG prices. WRONG prices generate opportunity.

8. The purpose of money is to get what you want out of life and to insulate yourself from others' stupidity or malevolence.

9. Every time history repeats itself, the price goes up.

10. Economics is basic to everything else, if there is a breakdown, all other systems will collapse.

11. A country that does not have a stable currency cannot survive.

12. Each generation always thinks it's special in some way and that new rules apply to it's games. So they consciously repeat the errors of their ancestors, hoping that this time things will be different. Their always wrong!

13. Human reaction to circumstances tends to be similar in similar circumstances. (No matter what century your calendar says you are in.)

14. The affairs of the world work in fairly predictable sequences, but TIME is one aspect impossible to predict.

15. In every crisis both danger and opportunity abounds.

16. In bull markets, put the majority of your assets in going long. IN bear markets, put the majority of your assets in going short.

17. Experience teaches that following market trends is perhaps the single most profitable trading tool.

18. If you wait till their is nothing to worry about, you'll wait until eternity. Take your position and use stops to protect capital.

19. Knowing how to live, work, spend and save wisely is more important than good investing.

20. Wealth comes from Saving, Investing and Profits.

21. The "other" way of increasing your wealth is to decrease spending, wasting money, paying excess taxes and throwing money away .... this is tax free.

22. All facets of investing take work, time and experience to master. Success comes after you pay your dues.

23. It is almost always a bad idea to substitute someone else's judgement for your own in the hope it will prove to be wiser. A better idea is to improve your own judgment ... usually by making your own mistakes.

24. Because the mix of inputs in a given market is never identical, there is no substitute for your own original, ever-adjusting, ever-compensating thought process.

25. The worst investment you can make is one you do not understand.

26. A change in the initial "Discount Rate Direction" will usually signal a change in the overall stock market direction.

27. Good management is 10 times more important to a company's success than any other consideration.

28. Ski's action formula, "It makes almost no sense to purchase or otherwise acquire good economic advice and not make purchases, adjustments, or otherwise heed the advice by putting at least some of it into practice."

29.It usually makes no sense to buy a commodity when you can buy its producer for a discount.

30. Few things that "everybody" knows are worth knowing.

31. Once you have thought out a strategy, do not change it frivolously.

32. The trend is your friend.

33. Things often take longer than you expect to develop and then begin rushing more quickly than you expect once they are underway.

34. If you want to make a substantial profit, you cannot do it with a limited position.

35. Views ingrained over many years do not turn on a dime.

36. Most people do not like to change their plans.

37. It's just as bad to believe something that is false as it is to not believe something that is true.

38. The longer the bull market continues, the more certain people are that it will continue further.

39. There's nothing like a sustained bull market to make us believe we are investing geniuses.

40. R. Prechter "The effects that a change in (a newly emerging) market trend will have on society ARE NOT IN EVIDENCE at the start of the trend. (However), they become intensely manifest by the time of its termination."

41. When a market moves strongly in either direction, it carries at least 75% of stocks with it.

42. Markets have a tendency to go far beyond what's reasonable on both the upside and the downside.

43. There's no telling how tall a tree will grow or how high a stock, mutual fund or commodity price will rise. (In a final blow-off phase, value becomes irrelevant.)

44. Virtually everything: is cyclical, that goes around comes around, that goes up will come down, that is out of favor will return to favor. At some point, every market reverses itself. (And every prediction eventually comes true.)

45. Markets that appear to defy gravity do so on a temporary basis.

46. Vertically rising markets are always followed by vertically falling markets. The greater the up-move, the more spectacular the subsequent collapse is likely to be.

47. Overconsumption inevitably leads to a period of underconsumption of the same magnitude.

48. Fear like greed comes in waves.

49. Signs of trouble are frequently followed by the real thing.

50. In times of severe economic turmoil, ALL markets forces are disrupted to a point that virtually every trade carries a "turmoil tax". Even commodities like gold and silver may not even reflect their true purchasing power. In such times you are almost always better off being somewhere else that is not experiencing the turmoil.

mikalRe: Postwar market behavior#1013874/16/03; 00:25:31

A poster on another forum this week, bemoaned the fact that there is an options expiration coming up, apparently Friday. But whatever the details, these expiries nearly always affect trading during the week the puts and calls options are set to expire!
For example, if it is commodities expiry, then that exchange has a staked interest in seeing the greatest number of those commodity options expire worthless at maturity, like a casino minimizing payout. So the price would be set on Friday (or sometimes Thursday like when Good Friday, markets are probably closed) near a cluster of contracts-i.e. where the greatest number of puts and calls will expire worthless, "out of the money". Price anomalies around expirations are well known among seasoned traders. This could be stocks, commodities or any other options or group of options set to expire in a given week. Similar to end-of-month or end-of-quarter price action.
Subsequent to holidays, typically see very interesting trading patterns. Similar to end-of-war. Though many war issues remain unresolved, the general mood is now post-war.

skiGolden Nuggets .... Supply and Demand Foreces#1013884/16/03; 00:40:36

1. In a free market, the only thing that can change the price of an investment is a change in supply and/or demand.

2. Demand is an economic concept; a function of peoples' wealth, not their desires or even their numbers (population). An increase in wealth precedes an increase in demand. A decrease in wealth precedes a decrease in demand.

3. In a free market, supply always rises to meet demand .. (and demand to supply). Or, in a continuous auction market, supply and demand are always precisely equal, with even the slightest imbalance being immediately eliminated by changes in price and volume.

4. Martin Spring "Inflation arises when there is an excess of demand for good and services relative to supply; it is not related directly to money/credit supply. Only when money supply stimulates excess demand for goods and services do the prices of the latter generally rise."

5. Most information, although disseminated almost instantly, is assimilated slowly and ultimately fully undertood by a small portion of the investing public.

6. Information which is OBSCURE or DIFFICULT TO COMPREHEND is most useful, as that is the type of information which is also most slowly assimilated by most market participants.

7. Often, an object is available for less than you're willing to pay. And if you can obtain it for a given price, the fact that you'd pay more is irrelevant and unnoticed. As long as it isn't necessary, you won't be pressed to determine just how much you would pay for the product.

8. Prices GO DOWN to their lowest profitable selling point as long as the product is readily available because the sellers compete with each other. Prices GO UP when a shortage develops because buyers compete with each other.

9. Stocks go higher only because there is more buying than selling. (Or fall due to more selling than buying.)

10. When a market is slow or depressed, prices are set by those who have to sell. It is pretty rare that someone has to buy .... buying is discretionary.

11. Regardless of the overall direction of the market, relatively overpriced stocks tend to decline, and under priced securities tend to rise.

12. A broad base of buyers (or sellers) is more secure and predictable than a narrow base.

13. Taxes cause people to consume fewer of the things that are taxed.

14. What "other" markets are doing will spill over into your market.

15. Marc Faber "Liquidity always heads towards a rising market."

16. CONVENTIONAL WISDOM has an incredible pull and consequently always has a profound impact on investment markets that directly correlate to it. Stated in a slightly different way, "markets make opinions".

17. Jim Puplava "Markets are just as much influenced by PERCEPTIONS as they are REALITY."

18. Cheaper prices in a "recessionary industry" will stimulate growth in complementary industries that use the products created by the "recession industry."

skiGolden Nuggets .... When to Buy and Sell#1013894/16/03; 02:06:53

1. J. Blanchard "The smartest investors buy when an investment is cheap. It sounds silly to point out such an obvious investment truth. But history shows that only a very elite (and small) group of investors has ever been able to apply this simple wisdom to the markets."

2. Knowing WHAT TO BUY (or sell in shorting) is only one third of the problem. Knowing WHEN TO BUY and WHEN TO SELL are the other nearly equally important considerations. Human nature tends to pay the closest attention to "what" and not enough to both "when's".

3. Jim McKeever "Avoid bottom guessing and instead buy at the beginning of stage #2. This can be identified by the following: First, it must breakout above a previously reliable moving average. Second, it must break out above a previous high & ideally above all of the highs in stage #1 basebuilding phase. And finally, the previous should happen on significant volume." (Thin volume could be a false breakout.)

4. The idea is to be in a given investment only when the odds of its going up appear to be 90% or better; and to be short when the odds of its going down are equally strong.

5. BOTTOM GUESSING (or top guessing) is a dangerous thing, and more often loses money than it makes. It is usually based on fundamentals; which can give us the ultimate direction of a market, but we have to go the the technicals for timing. Fundamentals can never give us the timing as to when to buy or sell; only the direction. Bottom guessing is for novice and arrogant investors who haven't yet learned its insidios folly. Because the odds are so overwhelmingly on my side, I would take any bet against a bottom (or top) guesser.

6. Bull markets begin after a bear market has bottomed out and the market is severely oversold. There is dispair and people think they never want to touch that particular market again. That is the negative attitude out of which bull markets are born.

7. When a bottom is at hand, a feature article with strong emphasis results in only sporadic buying.

8. At bottoms, the most common or typical investor is the very sophisticated investor. At tops, the most naive.

9. It is rarely wise to "chase" any market when prices are charging ahead or even right after they have had a significant run up. (The converse is also true for falling markets.)

10. BUY, BUY, BUY ........ when the market tells you when to buy (a fast moving average crosses a slow moving average), buy at a point of maximum pessimism, when you can't convince anyone to buy, when prices are almost unaffected by bad news, when things literally cannot get any worse than they presently are (dispite your and everyone elses' feelings of the day) and can only get better, on bad news, at market bottoms, when everyone else is pessimistic and trying to sell, after prolonged negative periods where the last discouraged seller is gone, when a state of "no hope" exists, when a market is held in contempt and the investment is commonly thought of as foolish, stupid, ignorant, or forgotten, when the market is quiet, trading volume is low, when prices are stable or cheap, during extended periods that are void of positive news stories (under-reporting), when the item is easy to find, before people and dollars start chasing it, when EVERYONE else is negative (possibly even the contrarians, speculators and tired, old, diehard bulls), when a last substantial selling climax can be identified, when nobody else is or on weakness, not on strength. Do not buy when there are too many buyers because you will pay too much. Do not buy all at once (it may become a better bargain). Start buying when you are ready .... not forced or pressured.

SELL, SELL, SELL ...... when the market tells you when to sell (a fast moving average crosses a slow moving average), when things cannot get any better than they presently are (despite your and everyone elses' feeings of the day) and can only get worse, on good news, at market tops, after extended periods that lack urgent selling, when the item is expensive and rare, when it is easy to convince others to buy, when the investment is regarded as a low risk, desirable and highly respected by the public, when buying decisions are thought of as simple, sound, wise, elementary, no-brainers by novice investors, when novice investors are confidently giving market advice and sharing their wisdom, when the market is hot, trading volume is high and investments are loved, when volatile price swings are the order of the day, when everyone else is optimistic and buying, when Wall Street and Main Street investors hold huge positions, when you can't find a bear or a person who is actually acting like a bear, when a continuous steam of positive news stories are commonplace (over-reporting), when a last substantial buying claimax can be identified. Sell on strength not on weakness. Never sell when there are more sellers than buyers because you will not get the best prices for your goods. Don't sell all at once (the price may become even better). Start selling when you are ready.

11. When a market does not do what it should do, that is a sign to pay attention. Or, a market that will not rally on good news will usually fall rapidly on bad news.

12. Old saw: "When a market should fall but doesn't, that's the place to be."

13. When a market closes above or below a key target for three days in a row, assume a new trend is in place.

14. Anytime you can buy a commodity that is in demand for less than it's cost of production, in the long haul it will pay off.

15. In the short run, markets move on the public perception of the facts (not reality); in the long run, markets move on the reality or actual fundamentals (after traders finally wake up to their mistakes).

16. When the technicals and the fundamentals both point up, we want to be long in a market. When they both point down, we want to be short. But when the fundamentals point in one direction and the technicals point in another, caution needs to be exercised.

17. The majority is always wrong. The majority rush to buy at market tops and rush to sell at market bottoms.

18. Unanimity of public sentiment is perhaps the most certain single indicator that a top of a speculative boom has arrived.

19. When everyone knows an investment is a "smart move", the top has probably been reached.

20. Important tops can sometimes be identified when a majority of investors are more afraid of not catching the next upmove than being caught in the next plunge.

21. The death knell of any bubble is the growing reluctance of investors to commit new cash to a market that seems to have lost its irresistible upward momentum.

22. Money drives prices ... The most important determinant of investment market trends is a change of liquidity.... more liquidity (money) drives prices up.... and contracting liquidity is what drives prices down.

23. Steve Saville "A rising price, not a falling price, stimulates investment demand for any investment."

24. High volume churning after a long run-up means that all buying is being met by an equal amount of selling. Eventually, the buyers will run out of money, or patience, or both. Then the sellers take over.

25. Declining volume on rising prices is always the sign of an important top.

26. A higher volume of trades on upticks is bullish. While a higher volume on downticks is bearish.

27. Insider buying is normally a better indicator than insider selling.

28. In the early phases of a bear market, the bargain hunters buy the dips. Suddenly the dips become corrections, which then trigger more profit-taking. Finally the correction turns into a plunge, with everyone scramblng for the exits.

29. At market tops or during severe corrections, "euphoria" turns into caution. "Caution" turns into concern. "Concern" turns into fear.

30. Use bear market rallies to sell off your stocks and to short weaker stocks.

31. For the prudent investor, on the way up you buy the dips but on the way down, you short the reversal peaks.

32. By all means, leave the door open to your mistakes and let the market tell you when to sell by using "stops". A stop-loss should be located at a price that, if touched, would tell you that your expectation was wrong & that you should get out. Stop-losses also protect you from totally unexpected surprises that were impossible to see coming.

BelgianMK / FreeWillie#1013904/16/03; 03:06:34

@ FW : Euroland has an (divided-fractioned) army and military spending in total is half that of the US. But this army is pathetically outdated (technically) and (old) Europeans simply have no lust (reason) to fight .
In a first phase, Euroland is going to "integrate" the fractioned troops and modernise them. But we are NOT going to oppose the US in any military way. This would be a straigth guarantee for another WW-X ! No thank you !
EU military picture will evolve when the UK joins EMU and when the East block states come closer (integrated) to EMU. But don't expect the "euro" to be backed by a systemic war-logic !!! A good currency-concept doesn't need such a supplementary force. Watch the evolution in the ME and you will understand (probably even agree) ?

ECB marks its goldreserves, quarterly, at the euro market-price on the last day of each quarter. All other countries are pricing their gold-reserves at their convenience (according to their monetary policies). The US gold-reserves remain valued (booked) at 41,22 $/Oz. You can find some listing on these valuations in the WGC-archives.
But read the article (Mises) on GE, about the total UN-transparency of the central banks. We are witnessing this here in Belgium with the National Bank litigation (goldsales). Absolute top secret and nothing seems what it is. Remember those days of the UK, goldreserves sale announcement...they (Tony of course) said, it was to promote transparency !
What a farce ! But for me, the most simple reason for keeping to accumulate the secret, untransparent, very precious yellow. If Gold would have lost its *vital* importance...states (CBs-Treasuries) would promote it into the skies ! They don't and wan't !

@ MK : Yes, I regulary reread your insightful conversations with FOA. Let me speculate a bit :
The France(+ Belgium-Luxemburg)/Germany/Russia-troika is worried about the ME oil-reserves being confiscated by the Anglo-Americans. It seems to me that the troika is Not going to let this happen !? All 3 for different reasons.
Expanding Euroland imports the most of ME oil and Russia doesn't want the US to set oilprices at its own convenience. Russia is a growing producer of oil/gas resources and wants Euroland's co-operation to "stabilize" the energy prices for the general well being of as much parties as possible (producers and consumers).
When you look at a world map and pinpoint all the can only conclude that this whole world is moving around the fast growing "oil-problem" (reserves and corridors)(Oil pricing). Colombia...Venezuela...Angola...Nigeria...Russia (Caspian oil)...Middle East...East Timor, and maybe other regions to come. The US has 41 military bases (and expanding), oil-strategically, placed around the globe. Soon, Petro-money will be associated/percepted with terror-money (cfr. blood-diamonts). That's a very sad and dangerous evolution. For how long can this be contained ? Rumsfeld cut the oil flow from Iraq to Syria !!! Very significant for what is to come, if Iraqi oil-reserves should become privatized under US/UK rule ! And with the UN having become totally irrelevant (?) the St. Petersburg reunion was a first step into a sudden re-inforced (core) coalition against US oil control.

Watch today's, further/renewed, euro-strength and Gold's weakness/inertion. Idem for POO. Why isn't there any post-war dollar-euphoria ? Taking into account that the dollar might be percepted as a stronger oil-controller. Strange... isn't it ? Do you think that the UK wants to remain outside this growing EU-East, coalition ? Let's wait on some declarations at today's EU meeting in Athens (Tony is there too- 10 signing EU treaty). Let us wait for a reaction on the Snow call to write off Iraq's debt. Who has to write off, what (billions of oil-reserve barrils/concessions)(Lukoil-TotalFina-?) !? Oh madre mia, what a wrestling.

Will the Russian devil be the one who is going to contain the emperial ambitions ??? A dangerous power play, isn't it ?

BTW for the Hugh Hendrey (Irish Gold wolfie) supporters : His excellent/outstanding performing fund has come under severe attack of the UK's IMA regulating body. Hugh loves Gold and Real Freedom ! More evidence that even private funds have to walk in lockstep with the interventionists - containers !

May I say...interesting times ?

Aristotlemiscellaneous responses#1013914/16/03; 03:09:06

= = =To Paper Avalanche who asked me, "Any thoughts on the dinar / dirahm relationship when silver becomes worthless and redundant?":

The gold/silver relationship of the dinar/dirham has no modern-day economic significance. What's that mean? Load up on dinars (they're as good as Krugerrands) and ignore the dirhams, that is, unless you have a religious compulsion to use some once in awhile.

= = =To FreeWillie,who asked anybody, "How is the EU's marking its gold reserves "to market" any different form how the US or other countries value their reserves? Isn't the "official" gold price dead?":

Let me answer your question about the "EU" [sic] marking its Gold to reserves to market, and correct the official body involved at the same time.

Here's how it is. The ECB and only the 12 EMU participants (together comprising the Eurosystem) of the larger 15 nation EU currently looks to the morning Gold fixing of the LBMA on the last business day of the quarter for the market price at which to carry it's Gold assets (per ounce and ounce receivable) for the following fiscal quarter.

Another prominant Gold nation which is not in the EMU, or even in the EU for that matter, is Switzerland. Switzerland also carries its Gold reserves at market values established fresh, quarterly.

Odd man out among the Gold biggies is the United States. The Treasury operates in conjunction with the Federal Reserve to monetize all Gold reserves through the issuance of Gold certificates to be held as Fed assets at a rate of $42.22 per each ounce. If you're like Leigh, you won't dare take me at my word, so you can look it up in 31U.S.C.5117 if you'd like to. Reading Federal code... bleh. Don't do it, brother. Sister?

Is the "official" price dead? I'm not sure what you mean by that. This is what I see. One day, best management practices will likely be implemented universally, which will see CBs with a reserve emulation closer to that of the Eurosystem than the Amerimess. In other words, the official price of Gold will be a floater. Floating upward in price (and value) as the banks churn out ever more and more money and as the globe experiences overall economic growth and an increase in *aggregate* wealth and standard of living.

And silver? It'll be the "poor nation's Gold." (Just kidding!) It'll have no significant role in this regard. Sooooo....

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Topaz@ Socrates...(sorry to butt in on Ski's most informative series)#1013924/16/03; 03:13:33

There is every reason to believe your theory is solid Sir, E320-$358 makes sense if a 2Yr overview is taken. T-Bond Yields "should" drop in tandem if recent trends are continued...a weakening Cash$ AND rising Yields are a management NO-NO from here on out imo and would indicate an abandonment of $ hegemony.
The other side of the coin is E/$ @ 320...If the ECB were to acknowledge the disinflationary impact the stronger Euro was having (as identified by an E300 Gold price) and cut their IR's we may yet see parity revisited.
The present "out-of-kilter" situation will rectify itself shortly, fun to watch.

TopazDinar/Dirham @ PA#1013934/16/03; 03:46:57

It's been quite a while since I last checked and thus may be wrong but the relationship, one to the other is simply a "weight-size" thing. NO specific "value" is nominated and so is determined in the marketplace. Any attempt at official valuation would be bogus and consistent with the bimetallic standards of yore.
We of the West can't comprehend this system without reverting back to todays Fiat derived price relationship...the part I liked was, "you can make your own". I'd be pushing out the Dinar's...trouble is, I'd hate to part with any.

silvercollectorI've got a big whopper so we start our day right!!#1013944/16/03; 05:38:07

Yesterday my wife gets talking about investments to a MORON. After my wife 'admits' she is dabbling in gold the guy says, "Gold is such a stupid investment!"

A week ago the wife of the MORON told my wife that he had lost $700,000 in the tech meltdown.

Now here's an really objective guy!!!!

Have a golden day!

SpartacusStiglitz Urges Japan To Weaken Yen To Ease Deflation #1013954/16/03; 05:41:58

TOKYO -(Dow Jones)-- Japan should print money and weaken the yen to ease deflationary pressures on the nation's struggling economy, a former World Bank chief economist said Wednesday.
Stiglitz also said that a change in mindset is required to resolve the problem of deflation, and proposed that the government, not the Bank of Japan, should print money, thus weakening the yen and curbing deflation. --

Cavan Man@Aristotle#1013964/16/03; 06:02:49

AU price MUST float. There is no other economically rational option. This cannot be avoided though it can be delayed. Even I can see the necessity and the eventuality! Completely agree. Keep the faith...CM
Socrates964Topaz#1013974/16/03; 06:04:34

Actually, I am more of the view that initially at least, bond prices will be artificially supported (I think that this has been going on for some time) and that the US$ will take the strain.

IMHO, it is more instructive to look at the euro/$ and the C$, Aus $, SFR/$ rates than the dollar index, since the latter is contaminated by the $/Y.

We appear to have a situation where the Japanese and US authorities are supporting each other - hence the Yen is devaluing slightly against the $.

This is an interesting situation. If we look at Japan's trade statistics


and BOP

It seems fairly clear that a)75% of Japan's trade surplus ($60bn of $80bn) is with the US, b) Japan is a major exporter of capital - but for portfolio investment rather than direct investment.

Hence, there appears to be a gentlemen's agreement, whereby the US allows Japan to run a huge trade surplus, provided that the whole thing is ploughed back into the US financial markets [I am not an expert on the Japanese economy by any means, and am very happy to be corrected by anyone who is].

It nevertheless seems to me that this arrangement is inherently unstable, since the only way the US can put its house in order is to reduce imports. The question is whether the Japanese will swallow this deterioration in their terms of trade with the US and blithely continue pouring money into US securities.

The only source of adjustment I can see is Japan's $30bn trade deficit with the Middle East - roughly the entire output of Iraqi oil.

It's pretty clear what the implications are - there would seem to be a natural tendency for Japan's trade surplus with the US to decline - hence it will require either coercion or free oil to keep Japanese portfolio flows into US securities. I'm not convinced about the coercion variable due to the N Korea situation, but it is open to a latitude of interpretations.

If anything, the current account dynamics point to a tendency for the yen to appreciate in value (declining portfolio investment)against the dollar.

Mr GreshamSir Belgian#1013984/16/03; 06:20:34

How did we ever get so lucky as to have you around, and for so long. I just realized that I had come to expect that good people would disappear on us before we could really enjoy their company. Thanks for showing up here each day with your unique perspective, and ENERGY! You really help to anchor this fine community.

Remember: Before there was Clousseau, there was Poirot!

The Invisible HandThe match is being played in Athens (EU summit) today and tomorrow#1013994/16/03; 06:44:28

Most EU leaders are thought to be keen to move on from their bitter pre-war splits, and at least agree on how to run and rebuild Iraq after the conflict.

United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, also attending the two-day summit, will consult key members of the UN Security Council on their views on a future role for the UN in Iraq.

Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis, whose country holds the rotating EU presidency, …said …"In the long term, nobody can govern the world alone."

French President Jacques Chirac and Mr Schroeder have both made clear they expect the UN to play a high-profile, central role, covering humanitarian assistance as well as offering some form of political input.
But the United States, which led the military intervention in Iraq, believes it should decide largely how any post-conflict administration is shaped
Leaving one's anarcho-capitalist objections against any and all government (and government institutions like the BBC) aside for a moment, one cannot help but wonder why the divide continues. Or is the reason that Tommy Franks didn't yet declare, except if I'm mistaken, the war to be over?

miner49erTopaz @ Dinar / Dirham#1014004/16/03; 07:26:58


According to Islamic Law...

The Islamic Dinar is a specific weight of 22k gold (917.) equivalent to 4.25 grams.

The Islamic Dirham is a specific weight of pure silver equivalent to 3.0 grams.

Umar Ibn al-Khattab established the known standard relationship between them based on their weights: "7 dinars must be equivalent to 10 dirhams."

"The Revelation undertook to mention them and attached many judgements to them, for example zakat, marriage, and hudud, etc., therefore within the Revelation they have to have a reality and specific measure for assessment [of zakat, etc.] upon which its judgements may be based rather than on the non-shari'i [other coins].

Know that there is consensus [ijma] since the beginning of Islam and the age of the Companions and the Followers that the dirham of the shari'ah is that of which ten weigh seven mithqals [weight of the dinar] of gold. . . The weight of a mithqal of gold is seventy-two grains of barley, so that the dirham which is seven-tenths of it is fifty and two-fifths grains. All these measurements are firmly established by consensus." Ibn Khaldun, Al-Muqaddimah


G'day good Sir. Just weighing in briefly. The above link (provided the other day by someone here), gives us an official exchange rate of 7 gold dinars : 10 silver dirhams.

With this, IMHO, anyone who was required to execute at this official exchange rate would be without gold by the close of the first business day. Everyone else would make it mysteriously vanish to their hidden chambers, or overseas vaults. Silver would come from everywhere, and find no gold, and this arbitrary rate would be immediately discredited. Save for those compelled or willing to observe this official rate due to religious authority, it would have no standing in practice.

And of course this has nothing to do with my or any individual's personal "bias" toward gold. The obvious arbitrage from world market relationships (1 : 72) vs. the religiously imposed 1 : 1.43 relationship of dinar/dirham creates a spread that would create untold financial catastrophes if allowed to free-wheel into existence. Undoubtedly to prevent this kind of chaos, all kinds of speed bumps, and sheep gates will be put in the way.

So... do you think the usual song will be sung? Those who cannot (or will not) meet the official 7 for 10 with real coins, but are obligated to honor it, might just issue promises to meet their obligation instead..., but you just have to wait a little while? And won't the typical business-minded individual find it easier to e-transact things instantly, rather than have metal packaged under guard, insured, weighed, assayed, transported (under guard), and have the process repeat itself on the other side, and have means in place to reconcile conflicts under legal norms should any (naaahhh...) ever arise? So with both supply side and demand side finding use of paper/electronic transactions preferable to moving actual metal, isn't the temptation there to push the envelope a bit? Religious constraints and the fear of God? Some will abide the law, but boyz-L-B-boyz... (as they have been since the beginning of time).

And so these notes will circulate "as good as gold" -- the gold they promise to be redeemable for, so long as the public has faith in the system. And won't those whose interests it is to promote the validity of the relationship, make sure that enough coins are available to honor redemptions, so to foster the impression, AND therefore reduce the inclination for redemptions AT ALL? Indeed, if one wants to hold the silver dirham instead, I am convinced they will not be disappointed. There will be plenty of them. And if one wants to trade in them, we just need to look back at the lyrics, again...

As long as sellers believe (or are willing to place their bets that the next guy still believes) that the 7 : 10 holds, then prices will reflect this in terms of an ultimate stability to gold. When faith in the 7 : 10 wavers, then prices will rise in terms of dirham, as people no longer believe in the official "value" placed upon them -- i.e., they are valued at .7 gold dinars each. Legally, the price will rise in terms of gold dinars, also, but no one will use them (at least not officially). Off-market (black market) trading at a discount in gold will take place, when settled in metal on the spot (but only in the back of the store...).

One may have a personal preference to the Ag. And if one wants to hold Ag in piles as high as the heavens, great. But the practical assessment is that the grand powers have always, without any exception whatsoever, for all time, favored gold over silver, and so it shall ever be. Why fight this? (Again, IMHO...)

Anyway, enjoy reading your posts... take care,

contrarianski--thank you#1014014/16/03; 07:32:56

ski--thank you for your superb golden nuggets. Please keep them coming. I'm going to print them out for reference.

Sometimes one does come across nuggets of wisdom, flashes of insight that have the ring of truth, and these seem to fit the bill. Trouble is, it's hard to find them all in one place. Usually they're interspersed with nonsense or the clutter of the day's temporary and misleading financial meanderings.

The thing, though, is that when you do come across something like a golden nugget, you have a gut feeling about it--it rings true and shines forth. It hits you in the gut with the force of truth.

You seem to have quite handily panned them out of the stream!

Leighminer49er#1014024/16/03; 07:49:27

That was the most informative, easy-to-understand reason to buy gold that I've read here or anywhere. THANK YOU!!

Aristotle, appreciated your response!

Au-someMoney matters#1014034/16/03; 07:53:18

An greatlink for those of us who have more questions than answers.
snippet: What is a
Dollar Bill?

Most of us would say a dollar bill is money, and think no more about it. Indeed the dollar bill is money, if we refer to its role as a medium of exchange. But there is much more to understand about it.

Fiat Money

A dollar bill is one of seven denominations of Federal Reserve notes currently issued. All notes are fiat money, meaning the government declares them to be money. Together they comprise almost all of the monetary base on which our modern credit system is built. Though not convertible into gold or any other valuable commodity, they play the role that gold once played. An important difference is that they can be produced in any quantity at very low cost. Then why are such notes accepted in payment for goods and services?

The Key Role of Taxes

The answer is that Federal taxes must be paid in fiat money. Every Federal Reserve note contains the inscription: This note is legal tender for all debts, public and private. A note has no value other than the promise behind it. However declaring it to be legal tender in settlement of debts between private parties would not be sufficient. But the need to acquire fiat money in order to pay one's taxes makes notes valuable as money.

Fiat money exists both as Federal Reserve notes and as bank reserves on deposit at the Fed. Notes could be used to pay taxes, but are mainly used as street money within the private sector. Normally taxes are paid by check, which results in a debit against the bank's own reserves. However whether one pays by check or by cash, the tax liability will be cleared.

A dollar bill is an IOU of the government, and is shown as a liability on its books. When we use it to buy something, we are actually transferring an obligation of the government to the seller. These third-party IOUs are regularly used as a medium of exchange in the private sector. They pass from buyer to seller without a second thought about their real nature.

An Analogy

To further illustrate the dual nature of the dollar bill, consider the following parallel: A subway company (the government) issues a token (dollar bill) in exchange for something of value (goods or services). That token is a promise (an IOU) of the company for a ride (government services). When you deposit the token (pay taxes), the company redeems the IOU, provides the ride and thereby honors its promise.

My question: Does this mean that ultimatly we all work for the government, and the government is taking us all for a ride?

Belgian@ Socrates964#1014044/16/03; 07:58:44

Nothing (repeat-nothing) is going to stop the Chinese expansion !!! Japan will become insignificant as a world player, thanks to US subordination and Chinese crushing competiviness. So, for the time being, the US's "growing" trade deficit (besides the budged deficit) is more or less guaranteed for quite some time. Note also, that Argentina is printing a new load of its confetti.

The US$, has to...wants to, decline in exchange rate...but can't...isn't allowed. This is a *** disastrous *** position (dilemma) for the US$ itself and many of its derivative currencies (debt-papers). Japan is in this sinking dollar-boat. I still remember a certain Hashimoto (PM-?), threathening the US monetary policies, with a "GOLD" warning in 1997 or something ! One doesn't make such a threath, twice. Those Billions of japanese savings are still available for an eventual gigantic Goldrush, once Japan (housewifes and BoJ) has to throw its towels into the ( US protected) economical ring.
That's why I'm very curious to see them developping a military industry (desperate act). One wonders why the WGC has established a Physical Gold fund in Australia instead of in Japan !? Maybe the Japanese are a bit smarter and prefer the real physical stuff in hand ?

Bear in mind that Chinese and Japanese, deeply hate each other and not at all ready for any kind of (economical-monetary) compromise or co-operation.

Japan is toast with a crashing dollar and can't fall back on an already saturated internal economy...this in sharp contrast with China and an expanding Euroland (Eastwards).

The above economic, probable, evolving realities, are all negative for the dollar reserve-currency and consequently a big plus for Gold.

It is also against this background that I see the US's quest for oil as to keep the dollar in * use * for some more time.

@ Sir Gresham : The pleasure is all mine, Sir ! Thanks.
As time goes by...more and more people will realy "understand" and "experience", WHY Gold property has to be kept/fostered, Physically in one's own hands !
The present gigantic "containment" of the many systems do illustrate how fragile/etherical these systems realy are !
One's currency's purchasing power can vaporize overnight.
Not only for Argentinians, Iraqis, etc...but also for 200 million affluent japanese, 270 million americans, 300 (500) million eurolanders. Simply because the rulers decide so with the stroke of a pen. Yes, I think the Kondratieff-Winter is coming.

@ MK : Your question : If the Iraqi protectorate gives the US a vote in OPEC ? I am afraid Sir, that Iraq and probably the ME, might turn into a sort of Vietnam-like conflic !? Pure speculation...? Maybe ? Watch the Russians !
The POO-levels (dollarprice) will decide if it creates room for peaceful compromise. And if the global economy comes into a situation where the POO is more decisive for growth...this POO will become much more important for economical survival/relance. Let us keep on watching our crystal balls.

OvSSki's 'Golden Nuggets'#1014054/16/03; 08:18:05

Dear Ski:

Most people get trapped by these golden nuggets.
Cheap and dear prices are always relative. One
could have applied your 10 and 11 (sell'sell'sell
and buy,buy,buy) all the way at many points during
the last bull-market and the current bear-market
and done the wrong thing.
Another point: When everyone is scared and no-one
wants to invest in a particular stock, and the prices
are outragously cheap, this might not be the right time to buy, because it's 1 minute before bankruptcy.
On and on. Sophisticated investers also get slaughtered
on both ends. No-one is right all the time. At certain
points the herd is also right, sometimes for considerable
length of time (last bull-market).
A good way to approach is: treat the markets like a
backgammon game. You throw the dice, yet a good player
is always ahead of an inferior player in spite of the
dice. Not in any particular game, but take 10 plays and
your lucky dice runs dry.
The few good investors I know usually hum the tune:

Row row row your boat
gently down the stream
merely merely merely merely
life is but a dream.

In other words, distancy yourself from intense emotions.
Be objective, do your research, don't take anything for
granted and have more noble thoughts in mind than the
avaricious markets can provide.

Cor Taurithe WEIGHT of 7 dinars must be equivalent to (the weight) of 10 dirhams#1014064/16/03; 08:36:28

from the link:
The door to debasement opened in the next century when the silver to gold exchange rate suffered its first serious change since the rise of Islam. In the early centuries of Islam the rate had always been around 20:1. In the thirteenth century changes in the market led scholars to speculate that the rate had changed to 10:1, but the official rate remained fixed at 20:1.

>>>> I do not believe that this 7 must equal 10 is anything other than the weights of the coins. There is a small discrepancy, 7 dinars is .25 g lighter than 10 dirhams.

It appears that they are not fixing the ratio of the value of gold to silver at 7:10 Only the weights of the coins.

As for the "grand powers" wanting gold rather than silver, this is true, but it may be that someday, gold will be far heavier than silver.
Remember that "when lions battle over scraps of meat, small dogs do well to hide with what is in their belly".

I buy both.

a nation of oneThey stick together.#1014074/16/03; 09:12:38

Hoping that my posting privileges have not been eradicated on account of my 'financial obscenities,'
someone needs to point out the following. It is dirty work, but I will do it. The main factor supporting today's
stock market is whether the stock sellers -who are called 'brokers' but who in reality function primarily as
confidence men- are going to be able to get gullible workers to put their money into it. Nobody buys stocks
on fundamentals any more. Very few do so. Instead, now, stocks are sold on faith. Knowledge is anathema to
faith. And so, in a society somewhat like ours is, where the people ostensibly have access to education and
understanding, stock pushers, and others who pander on the basis of mere hope, have got to, 1) keep the
public as ignorant as they can, and, 2) try all sorts of ridiculous things to put the market where they want it.
At some point, as the veil of ignorance gets lifted, those whose sustenance depends on deceit ride rails out of
town, sometimes clothed in feathers. And they are not feathers plucked from angels' wings.

EconoclastGold is a stupid investment (please read on)#1014084/16/03; 09:59:17

The thing is, that most Americans (I can't really speak about others) have confused the meanings of "savings" and "investments". Since I'm kind of preaching to the choir here, I won't go into the reasons that gold is the ultimate saving mechanism for one's excess productivity. It seems that people have been "investing" what they should have been "saving". After one's savings are sufficient and secure, that's when one should begin putting funds in investments.
To call gold an investment is to denigrate its purpose (in my opinion). It is so much more.

I don't post much anymore because the more I learn, the less I know.
The world is such a complicated place. Chess games on top of chess games within chess games. My small mind is not keeping up. To me that is a scary proposition. I know there are many, many humans who are much, much smarter than I am, yet I also trust my intellectual capabilities and perception to operate at a functional level in this world. I just wonder if the humans who are pulling the strings are able to discern the correct ones themselves in our overly complicated world. Every choice has consequences.

As I realize more and more how little I know, however, my understanding of the importance of holding physical gold as savings/protection goes up exponentially. It seems to be the safe answer against all possibilities.

MK, the depth of your posting/knowledge has been VERY impressive as of late. Thanks for sharing.
Belgian, I also would like to thank you for being such a strong anchor here.

adminMKs Commentary & Review#1014104/16/03; 10:29:34

Updated with the return of an old friend, Short & Sweet. Go to the link. Scroll right. Enjoy.

Send your comments, questions, additions to MK for possible inclusion on page.

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Socrates964Belgian#1014114/16/03; 10:30:59

if I may dissent somewhat from your fine post, I outlined Japan Inc.'s business strategy, along the lines of:

'Buy bucket loads of our exports and we'll plough the money back into your economy'.

I agree that on this basis they are on a hiding to nothing with the US, since both countries need to devalue.

While the Chinese may hate the Japanese for the Rape of Nanking, etc., etc., they are sufficiently pragmatic to see that the Japanese are queueing up (like the Taiwanese) to invest in their country, so that this 'money back on your imports' deal fits far better with China's current priorities.

Also, the yuan is a prime candidate for revaluation. It thus seems to me that on a short-term view, Japan may decide that if it comes down to a fight between China and the US, they stand to gain more by siding with China (neither side need say a word, you just watch the trade figures/BoP), the rationale being that Japan may at least try and make a virtue of necessity.

One point which someone may be able to explain to me:

Japan runs a $20bn trade deficit with China that is more or less offset by a trade surplus with Hong Kong -anyone know what this means?

canamami$US to Iraq - Victory in the currency war?#1014124/16/03; 10:45:07

US Dollars Exported To Pay Iraqi Civil Servants
Wed Apr 16 2003 11:41:36 ET

As the U.S. turns from bombing Iraq to rebuilding it, the U.S. government is airlifting dollars from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to replace - - at least temporarily -- the discredited Iraqi currency! ..........

OvSSir Belgian#1014134/16/03; 10:51:10

Always enjoy your input. A day without a
Belgian post is a lesser day. But you are
totally wrong when it comes to your conven-
tional assessment of the Japanese. Along
with 99% of the Western World, you have
been duped by shallow misleading reports
in the Western press and duplicitous finan-
cial and official Japanese gov'ment sources.

Thus I started a lengthy reply to your
post when suddenly it evaporated into
cyberspace heaven.
I have to try again but have a pressing
obligation to fulfill. Until then, au
revoir, OvS

cyberspace heaven.

JemeJordanTrading US Swiss Francs for Swiss Gold #1014144/16/03; 11:23:55

Trading US Swiss Francs for Gold

Recently I checked my local Coin dealer and he happened to mention that he gets a lot of foreign currency because he is located in a high tourist area of San Diego, He said he usually sells this currency at a substantial discount to the exchange rate because its not worth bothering with. He is selling Swiss Francs for .62, My idea is to accumulate Swiss Francs at a substantial discount in the US and then make Gold purchases in Switzerland. Any one has any thoughts on this strategy ?
PizzThis is real encouraging. . . .#1014154/16/03; 11:27:44

According to the article SARS is turning out to be the common cold on steroids.

If true, this disease won't have to proliferate that much to have an economic impact. When the cold and flu season hits, the fear factor will be enormous.

Who would ever have thought that a virus would come around that has it's own derivative with leverage.

Have a strange feeling the news medias will be backing off this story as things progress. We'll see.

Rather have gold in my bunker rather than paper. . .


BelgianOVS/Socrates#1014164/16/03; 11:37:37

Mainland China and Hong Kong, still two different animals.
In China, less and less tolerance for japanese competition and not so yet in HK.
I am getting my perceptions from those who are exploiting the competition between China and Japan. China is outrunning Japan already for quite some time now and increasing dramatically. On this evolution, I put some currency (yen/rnmb/$) prognostication and favor the odds for China on 10 to 1. Japanese investments in China are welcomed, but soon "chinezed" (integrated).
Just go (window)shopping (volume and price/quality-wise) at home and count (balance) the "made in China" against the "made in Japan". Take into account that Japa-GDP=4xChina's GDP.
OK guys, where do I have it wrong ?

21mabry(No Subject)#1014174/16/03; 12:15:50

Beligan, i am about half way through Marc Fabers new book I would recomened it, If someone has an interest in the far east you should read this. Mr. Faber writes as a economis historian would he lives in Hong Kong and is very high on investing in asia in the coming years.
21mabryJemmeJordan#1014184/16/03; 12:37:11

Are there any tax or reporting implications with your plan.Would you take possesion I dont even trust a bank to hold things for me,I would never want them in another country. I dont want to rain on your idea it may work it just seems like there would be some goverment somewhere involved in the transaction.The shipping would be expensive, call the forum sponsers get there price on what you want to buy. Take possesion jemmejordan
Cytek@ Pizz regarding SARS#1014194/16/03; 13:07:02

Here is the CDC link to check out the cases under investigation or should i say in Qaurantine. The CDC also says they have sequenced the genome for the coronavirus believed to be responsible for the global epidemic of SARS.

TAke this with a grain of salt, but if it's true this could get interesting.


Posted By: Dr. Patricia Doyle
Date: Thursday, 10 April 2003, 11:46 p.m.

SARS Confirmed As Manmade - Possible BioWeapon
From Patricia Doyle, PhD
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

4-10-3 IRKUTSK --The virus of atypical pneumonia has been created artificially, possibly as a bacteriological weapon, believes Sergei Kolesnikov, Academician of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences. He expressed this opinion at a news conference in Irkutsk (Siberia) on Thursday. According to him, the virus of atypical pneumonia is a synthesis of two viruses (of measles and infectious parotiditis or mumps), the natural compound of which is impossible. This can be done only in a laboratory, the academician is convinced. He also said that in creating bacteriological
weapons a protective anti-viral vaccine is, as a rule, worked out at the same time. Therefore, the scientist believes, a medicine for atypical pneumonia may soon appear. He does not exclude that the spread of the virus could have begun accidentally, as a result of "an unsanctioned leakage" from a laboratory.

Patricia A. Doyle, PhD Please visit my "Emerging Diseases"
message board at:

Socrates964Belgian#1014204/16/03; 15:27:35

Actually, if you look at the statistics, Japanese portfolio investments dwarf their direct investments.

I don't doubt that the Chinese are basically very nationalist and anti-Japanese, but what I had in mind was more along the lines of: China replaces US imports with Japanese imports and in return, opens up its bond markets to Japan which would be a more or less captive investor (since the portfolio investment for imports is the quid pro quo). I remember seeing articles about how the Japanese retail public is pouring money into Chinese stocks, and I imagine that the Chinese are pragmatic enough to take a 'pecunia non olet' view.

Hence, lots of Japanese capital could be good for China, in that Japan will guarantee a deep and liquid bond market (and probably shore up China's banks into the bargain), and good for Japan (or at least better than simply handing money over to Wall Street), in that for a time at least, they can pick up a higher yield than at home in an appreciating currency (which, as I have said before, is IMHO the route China will choose when the world goes into recession and it sees that subsidizing exports via a weak yuan is no longer as good a deal as picking up cheap raw materials via a strong yuan and selling domestically).

As a more general comment, I see China emerging as a rival financial centre to Wall Street, since Asian and particularly Middle Eastern capital is likely to seek a US Neocon-free zone.

Max RabbitzIndonesia May Dump Dollar; Rest of Asia Too?#1014214/16/03; 15:53:32

By William Pesek Jr.

A few snippets:

Tokyo, April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Pertamina, Indonesia's state oil company, dropped a bombshell recently. It's considering dropping the U.S. dollar for the euro in its oil and gas trades. Indonesia's rationale: The dollar may be the world's reserve currency but it has become too volatile. ``One thing is for sure, the adoption of the euro as an alternative means of payments could be an effective solution to speculative dollar-oriented dealings,'' Indonesia's Vice President Hamzah Haz said last month.

One reason leaders like Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia favor the euro: It lacks a domestic agenda. Washington has proven quite adept at steering the dollar up and down depending on economic needs. In the early 1990s, a lower dollar was favored to boost growth. Later in the decade the White House favored a rising currency to attract foreign capital.

Since 12 countries use Europe's single currency, it may be less susceptible to unpredictable political agendas. Also, the European Central Bank, not politicians, manages it. In a perfect world, the Japanese yen would be Asia's preferred currency. Tokyo's active manipulation of currency markets makes the yen about as appealing as the Russian ruble.

Max: All paper money will always be subject to political agendas. That's why they invented it.

PizzContrary Thought. . . .#1014224/16/03; 16:00:56

Well, as the showroom turns (car talk for life is nothing but a real time soap opera), it seems we have a very small herd of investors and a larger preploria of funds trying to second guess the markets, trends, follow age old bits of wisdom (buy the rumor, sell the news) etc. etc.

What they are forgetting is that all these shell games which have worked in the past require a never ending supply of emotional investors from the general public to fleece.

You can tell by the action and volumes that the "marks" are becoming an extinct spieces.

The war fizzled, assuming we needed a real nice, controlled, and somewhat comfortable, LONG TERM conflict in order to keep all the fiat greenbacks circulating. It's almost as if the war was a bit too easy. Ever sacrifice a pawn in a chess game???? And if the chess game just happens to be the real war, and if it's financial (like I think), we sure appear to have been outsmarted a bit. Saddam??? Probably not going to find him either.. . most likely in someone's obscure palace playing financial chess with Bin Laden. . .

So what's next?? Been reading quite a bit, and now, since the war hasn't (and won't) generate a new bull market, and Bush probably doesn't have enough political ammunition to keep chasing the elusive WMD thru country after country, what new positive spin can we come up with?

My guess now is the political cycle. A couple months back I even said I was convinced that the markets may turn up cause Bush Jr. would not make the same mistake his father made. But if the pundents start jabbering about it now, it's going to turn into the proverbial "second half recovery" excuse that has and never will happen until everyone thinks it won't.

Gold appears to be ready to start another leg up in its bull run. It also appears that the PM stocks are going to lead the charge.

Gold over 400 and the HUI to have a triple top breakout at 155? We'll we have to get there first, but without the war in full swing, the dollar has no support. That is enought to push gold back up. The ever escalting SARS problem appears to be added insurance. If SARS is a variation of the common cold, logic says it will be around for just a bit longer than most would like. . .

What's a bit bothering to me is I think we will have some event that will push gold over 400 and for the HUI to bust 155. (the HUI is the one I am watching, because I have seen more tripple top breakouts than I have seen tripple tops). What's more disturbing is, if my senario happens, then someone already knows what's going to take place. Having the markets discount an action, which only can be proven in hindsight, has always been a little suspicious to me. A little like having our lives centrally planned with the news leaking out a bit at a time to selected players.

Just thinking out loud, and wishing I havd a bit more fiat to buy more physical. . . .


OvSSir Belgian#1014234/16/03; 16:28:02

Let me try again. re: your prognosis that
Japan will be pushed into a subservient
world player.
When the Japanese stockmarket started to
crash in January of 1990 it was a rude
awakening for the Japanese. They took a
big hit in self-esteem and in their pocket
when their casino market imploded,and another
severe hit, when the real-estate madness
fizzled. Suddenly, their grandious invest-
ments like Rockefeller Center, etc. didn't
look so smart; they retrenched, tallied their
losses and went back to their traditional
self-effacing ways.
Unlike in America, in Japan (as in Germany)
the stockmarket is not as all-pervasive and
not as important. Just a handful of the largest
US corporations' market value (Microsoft, Walmart,
IBm,etc.) is larger than the total of Germany's
and France's combined stockmarket value.
Yes, their self-effacing ways. For a decade now
they cry crocodile tears about the bad state of
their economy. Budget deficit. Bank insolvency.
But strangely, the value of the yet appreciated
by more than 15% during this time, their foreign
trade surplus reached a trillion dollars while
the consumers saved and saved.
What were and are they doing with all the money?
Upgrading their roads, airports, trains. Investing
huge sums into manufacturing plants and research.
Most patent applications in the USA are by Japanese
companies. Buy country-size tracts of land in Brazil
to plant soybeans that compete with US farmers. Buy
the whole Shiitake mushroom production from China
and distribute it around the world. Invest globally
in their wholly owned manufacturing plants that
compete with host country businesses. I just picked
up a bottle of sake. One brand was imported form
Japan, three other brands are made in the Napa Valley
by Japanese. Eventually, the Chinese will make Japanese
sake cheaper in China. But how long will it take them
to compete in capital intensive bullet trains, power-
generating equipment, sophisticated machine tools,
super computers, laser technology and the list goes on
and on. The Chinese are at the stage Japan was in the
50's and 60's when they made all the trinkets and little
American flags found in the dollar stores. Yes, and with
the Indians they are in the dress business, etc. To up-
grade to a higher level, they depend on Japanese capital.

Are the Japanese banks going bankrupt. How can that be
possible when the public and bank debt is a modest %age
of all private and public savings and the elite directs

The Western press has painted a sorry state, aided and
abetted by the self-effacing play-acting business elite,
while quietly expanding their empire; the real-estate
has been hit severely but look at the Tokyo skyline: one
new skiscraper is going up after the other--they are
already getting ready for the next business cycle upswing.

Yes, some of their housewives (who control their husamnds
spending purses, have bought more gold (and platinum) for
"just in case", as every prudent family should do. But
the elite, while whining, is penetrating the Asian markets
as never before. Yes, don't feel sorry for the Rising Sun.
They have duped us all.


TownCrierFederal Reserve gives banks $11.25 billion in booster cash#1014244/16/03; 16:43:52

$8.25 billion were now-you-see-it-now-you-don't funds from overnight repos, and $3 billion were added through five-day repurchase agreements. The market in fed funds was trading at the FOMC target at the time of the operation.

There is no "meaningful limit" to the amount of new dollars that may be produced by the Federal Reserve and our national banking system. We will perish of overfeasting through political will long before we are overcome by a famine for fiat currency. Believe it. Protect your purchasing power with a prudent diversification into the king of hard assets, gold.

Call Centennial to stake your claim.


Chris PowellNew commentary from Jim Sinclair#1014254/16/03; 17:53:02

Jim Sinclair, Tan Range CEO, says we're
"very close."

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches, send an e-mail to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

CometoseRed House over Yonder#1014264/16/03; 18:42:11

In the middle of the song in the second verse in the second stanza ......the second time He gets into the " Wait a minute something"s wrong here.....This key don't unlock this door... ( this is the epitomy or the way wall st has trained the sheep in the financial world.....) ...then in the middle of some GUITar licks that bring an air of mystery and eeriness into the song and perhaps with the further effect of confusion , MR HENDRIX says " Something goin' on here......
MKBlack Blade#1014284/16/03; 19:21:01

We've had a number of calls at the castle inquiring as to the whereabouts of Black Blade (nothing like what we used to and still get even now on Another and FOA) but enough to necessitate this post. Black Blade is taking a break and should be back in the next day or two. I was looking at our "visit" numbers today, and discovered that "The Daily Market Report" is second only to this forum in the number of Daily visits. And it's no small number -- a tribute to the fine job Jon does with that page. Don't know how important "tools" are to you until they suddenly go missing. . . . . . .
steadythe dirham#1014294/16/03; 20:41:10

where is the link saying the islamic mint is going to start marketing dirhams? where is the link saying they are going to use dinars? where are the public going to get them? can i get some now? where are these coins at> who has them?
the unit of account may be the dinar but the gold will be in a vault exchanged... what quarterly? so no dinar and dirham will be exchanging hand in the common market place. that just aint happeniong not now, not next week not next year. i have silver but im not holding my breath on the dinar and dirham in currency form to rescue silver.
maybe when the malysains have actually implamented there lil gold settlement program we can asses what there plans for silver apear to be.

OvSFickle 90% of investors (gold included)#1014304/16/03; 21:00:53

Isn't the attendance record of forums and
conferences, etc. revealing, why only 5-10%
of investors are relatively successful?

A rising price and messages come flooding in.
A retrenching of the price and the messages
slow to a trickle. Basic human nature.

Counter this human feelings, act contrarian to
these feelings and the rewards are yours.
Easier said than done, so. Cheers. OvS

WaveriderBravo!!!#1014314/16/03; 21:21:28

What a great read here today and the past few days! Soooo...many "Golden Nuggets". Thanks MK, TownCrier, Ski and everyone. It's nice to see some posters whom we haven't heard from for awhile - Pizz, Leigh, RobotGuy, MaxRabbit, Miner, Econoclast and others. Belgian - you too had a break, and I'm glad you're back. BUT...where is SECTOR? Sir Sector - please join us again - your brilliance is missed - the forum is not the same without you...know that your chair is being kept warm by the hearth. Thanks to *EVERYONE* here for your contributions. Cheers,


WaveriderPuplava: Market Wrap-Up#1014324/16/03; 21:24:20

"The Greenspan Fed is hell bent on reinflating the bubble in the economy and in the markets. Since the tech bubble burst in 2000 the Fed has been responsible for creating multiples bubbles in mortgages, housing, and consumption. Now the Fed is looking to reinflate both the economy and the financial markets. For those who are naïve in believing that the Fed doesn't intervene in the financial markets, they should be reviewing the Fed's balance sheet. The Mad Hatter that heads up the Fed has been busy monetizing debt. In the week ending April 2nd the Fed monetized $2.6 billion in debt. Over the last year, the Fed has purchased over $67 billion in Treasury debt. Foreigners are also buying Treasuries. They now own $899 billion of our outstanding Treasury debt. The M&M's are still growing and the monetary base has increased by close to $50 billion in the last year. If there is deflation anywhere it isn't obvious in the monetary aggregates. The Fed is now in unchartered territory with monetary policy now becoming a grand experiment. It is becoming a battle on whether the Fed can win against the forces of a deflationary debt collapse without creating hyper-inflation in the process."

Waverider: Another good read from Puplava, but alas...without Black Blade's insights, commentary and humor :(

Black BladeWhat A Week!#1014334/16/03; 21:27:42

Well I'm back. I have been out of town on business and took an hour or so at the gym. I was somewhat amused by what silliness I saw on CNBC while on the road. Several stocks beat the street, albeit on the back of vastly lowered earnings estimates. The earnings seem to also come by way of cost cutting measures (read job cuts). This does not look like an "economic recovery" but the acts of desperate companies working feverishly to look good before new tighter accounting standards take effect later this year and equally desperate investment houses attempting to lure unsuspecting and tapped out (former?) investors back into the shark infested waters. Meanwhile the US dollar continues to look weak and is poised for a much greater fall. How can it be otherwise when current account and budget deficits soar to levels never ever seen before with no end in sight. The markets may receive another rude awakening when the expected Iraqi oil production increases fail to materialize over the next several months and tight energy supply becomes more of a worry as winter approaches. It appears that the old "Ant and Grasshopper" story will play out once again. The geopolitical situation could flare up again as now talk leads to Syria, Iran, and possibly North Korea as US policymakers grumble about these potential hotspots. And of course the threat of terrorism rises as the balance of power shifts in the Middle East. These certainly are "Interesting Times".

- Black Blade

mikalEnigmas envelop economic environs(How did we get ourselves into this mess?)#1014344/16/03; 21:47:48

By: Ed Henry
The Bush administration is not only facing the loss of creditability in the world of foreign affairs, it's facing a disaster in its line of credit. How quickly can things fall apart if the nation can no longer borrow?
The United States of America hit the national debt ceiling 56 days ago as of Tuesday, April 15, 2003, and there hasn't been a peep about it.
The dogs of war are one thing, but conducting an expensive invasion at a time when the credit card has expired and, for some reason, has not been automatically renewed can be disastrous. The implications are enormous.

Worst case scenario.
Investor creditors lose faith in U.S. Treasury securities. Not only do they stop buying Treasury securities, stop loaning the government money, but they cash-in what they're now holding. A run on the U.S. Treasury for up to $3.7 trillion in immediate repayment could collapse the United States of America overnight.
One of the nice things about U.S. Treasury securities is that they can be cashed-in at any time. Investors do not have to wait for maturity and can recoup their original investment whenever they feel like it. It's American taxpayers who guarantee the national debt, all of it. Are you ready to pay them back?
The burden of repayment would fall directly on the 138 million working Americans and other taxpayers. It would not be the responsibility of children, the unemployed, or most of the retired people. Happy-go-lucky estimates telling you that the tab for each person in the country is about twenty thousand dollars ignore or conveniently forget this. It's more than double that figure.
At a time when the U.S. Dollar is losing its place to the Euro, when we've got a large trade deficit and majorities in the rest of the world liable to boycott American products, this is definitely not the time to be forced into any sort of national debt payoff.

Second worse case scenario.
The Federal Reserve, an independent privately held banking organization, is forced into picking up more and more of the Treasury securities constantly being sold just to maintain the national debt level. The Federal Reserve already holds about fifteen percent of the national debt.
Mr. Van Zeck, head of the U.S. Treasury's Bureau of Public Debt, claims to be selling about $2 trillion a year in Treasury securities merely to replace those maturing at the rate of about five billion a day, weekends included. These securities are not new debt and sales continue while we're at the debt limit.
If investor confidence drops off and the Federal Reserve increases it's holdings we could end up with the "Fed" replacing the Treasury. Say "goodbye" to another big element of the Constitution.

Third worse case scenario—happening now.
Since the start of fiscal 2002, the Bush administration has borrowed $638 billion in new debt; $421 billion during the four quarters of fiscal 2002, and an additional $218 billion in the first quarter of fiscal 2003. The Bush administration has put the national debt on its way "to the moon, Alice."
Since January, and under the direction of a new Secretary, the U.S. Treasury has been in a holding action on borrowing new debt that in smaller steps carried us to the debt limit on February 20, 2003. Since that date, the Bush administration has been unable to borrow new money from either investors or Social Security and other entitlement surpluses.
As a result, all expenses for the invasion of Iraq from that time forward, including the $80 billion just approved by Congress, must come from existing programs. It must come out of the fiscal 2003 budget's planned discretionary spending for education, agriculture, homeland security, and other programs. And this budgetary planning was unrealistically and irresponsibly inflated in the first place.
Having experienced a revenue shortfall in fiscal 2002 when the budget was $2.1 trillion, the Bush administration went right ahead with an increased $2.2 billion budget for fiscal 2003, finally approved about a month ago. And all indicators are that there's going to be even a greater shortfall this year. (see: "What Price War" where this is laid out in detail.)
Every City and State government in the country is feeling the effects of money taken from existing programs. Job layoffs and cutbacks in our own needs are felt at all levels while the federal government plans to rebuild foreign nations and conduct other invasions. We are supposedly freeing other people while depriving and shackling ourselves.
Obviously, once the debt ceiling is raised or done away with entirely (a proposal in the new fiscal 2004 budget) the Bush administration will continue its trip to the moon. We will quickly make up for borrowing lost in this dry period and money will flow from the open borrowholic tap once more, all at the expense of future generations.
Two big questions.
Why hasn't Congress raised the debt limit? With or without fanfare and political point making, this is a simple and usually automatic task. So far, discussion is not even scheduled. Could it be that the Bush administration does not have the votes?
If the government will not accept fiscal responsibility, balance its own enormous budget, and begin living within its means, not raising the debt limit is certainly one highly effective way to force it.
Secondly, how long will investor confidence hold? When do you think investors will realize that these securities are backed solely by full faith and credit in every taxpayer in the country and the people are just about tapped out? Will investors start believing that their money is not as "safe" as they've been told?
Paddy Chayefsky's "we're not going to take it anymore" is already coming to fruition. There are several movements to disrupt income taxes and the "We The People" Foundation questions its very legitimacy.
"Published originally at : republication allowed with this notice and hyperlink intact."

WaveriderBlack Blade#1014354/16/03; 21:48:19

Welcome back...I'll change that to a :)
Black BladeAverage search for white-collar job is 11 months#1014364/16/03; 21:50:57


A new survey of about 7,000 white-collar job seekers in the Twin Cities showed that the average search now lasts 11 months and that nearly half of those queried had exhausted their unemployment benefits.

Black Blade: The story is similar around the country. I recall last week that CNBC's Bob Pisani said that when he would call up an analyst on Wall Street and would get someone else as the person he talked to earlier was replaced as Wall Street continues to slash jobs. Many people have simply given up looking for employment while others have taken lower paying jobs. Gone are the days when a IT professional could write his own ticket with signing bonuses and rapidly appreciating stock options. The airline industry is still in a steep nosedive and even with government bailouts possible, many airlines will simply crash and burn. Manufacturing continues to head offshore for cheap labor (Japan is finding this to be a growing problem as well). So don't be surprised when you enter Wal-Mart or go pas the drive through window at McDonald's and see a familiar face saying "welcome" and "would you like a cart?" or asking if "would you like fries with that?". In a word – "Grim".

Black BladeSmall companies too scared to hire#1014374/16/03; 22:00:55


SAN FRANCISCO — Small-company hiring, which was expected to rebound, instead grew worse last month amid war and economic jitters. Just 1% of 555 firms surveyed say they plan to add workers — down from 6% in February, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) trade group said Tuesday. The last time it hit 1% was in December 1991. The darker sentiment reflects skittish business and consumer confidence, which hit lows in March as the United States readied for war, says Mark Zandi, chief economist at The mood of the nation's 5.8 million small employers is vital to economic growth because they create most new jobs. They also spend billions for machinery, computers and other equipment. The NFIB report follows a forecast by the Business Roundtable, which represents big corporations, showing that just 9% of members plan to add jobs in the next six months. Another 46% expect no change; 45% plan cuts.

Black Blade: Doesn't look good.

Black BladeNew York faces 'doomsday' budget#1014384/16/03; 22:10:33


New York City's public workers have been asked to tighten their belts to help tackle its ever-present budget problems - and Mayor Michael Bloomberg has warned that far stricter austerity measures are possible. Mr Bloomberg presented two versions of his proposed 2004 budget, the outcome depending on whether the city is able to force upstate commuters to pay municipal income tax. If he fails, his "doomsday scenario" envisages the loss of 10,000 public jobs, the closure of zoos and fire stations, and vastly reduced spending on education, sanitation and the police force. The idea of taxing commuters is not a new one, but may still prove tricky. Until a few years ago, the state of New York charged non-city residents a levy of 0.45% on their income, which went to municipal budgets. And the state government has fallen on hard times, with an $11.5bn budget deficit of its own, so is reluctant to commit more of its tax revenues to the city. According to some estimates, New York has lost 223,000 jobs since the end of 2000, mainly thanks to a 16% contraction in Wall Street employment.

Black Blade: And it does not look to get any better.

Operative@ mikal "richest nation faltering?"#10143904/16/03; 23:14:13

Good find on that article. Fits in with some things happening tonight. The Euro shooting up, Dollar spiking down. US markets closed friday, I believe London and many others closed on monday. Is tonight the beginning of a 5 day strike of Shock & Awe in the world's financial markets??
This could get really exciting by tuesday. We watch and wait.

OperativeBlair Wants to Be President of EU#10144004/16/03; 23:18:42,,3-649651,00.html

For those who have been wondering why Tony Blair has been pushing for the adoption of the EU, here is your answer.
skiGolden Nuggets ..... Speculation & Longshot#1014414/17/03; 01:07:11

1. H. Browne "ut in the real world, speculating isn't simple ... Successful speculation involves risk, hard work, hours of study and humility to admit one's mistakes (and learn from them). Not surprisingly, these are the requirements for achieving anything important in life."

2. Jerome Smith "Truly outstanding investment opportunities occur only occasionally. In general, opportunities are normally long term in their maturation, and by careful study can be foreseen long before they come to the attention of most investors."

3. The last to see a new truth (paradigm) are usually the former leaders under the old paradigm.

4. H. Browne "A large firm may have extensive research facilities. But profitable ideas seldom come from amassing huge amounts of information. They usually come from independent thinking about the information that's available to everyone."

5. H. Browne "Normally, big gains are possible only if your opinion differs from the prevailing view. (However), Don't expect to make money just by being contrary."

6. A speculative opportunity exists anytime there is an immense chasm between perception and reality.

7. R. Prechter "The Elliott Wave Theorist's position has been that successful investing requires one thing: anticipating successful investments." (Said in a similar way .. (Anticipate where the money will flow next.)

8. R. Maybury "New dollars are always going somewhere and wherever that is, prices rise. That place is where an investor should invest."

9. J. Dines "A way to make money in the stock market is to find an area with explosive growth and mindboggling potenial; then investing in it as early as possible."

10. J. Dines "The fact is, to make real oney, you have to act before the crowd. But he who is first always LOOKS wrong, by definition."

11. R. Prechter "The early buyer makes the most in a bull market, and the early seller preserves the most in a bear market."

12. It is not necessary, or prudent, to invest 100% of your capital in search of a 10% gain when the same result can be achieved by investing 10% for a 100% gain.

13. You are only likely to get 1,000% returns over a business cycle in those investment areas that have already crashed and have hit bottom.

14. D. Dreman "NONE of us can escape the anxiety and doubt that permeates a crisis."

15. D. Casey "Make fear your friend."

16. D. Dreman "In a crisis, carefully analyze the reasons put forward to support lower ... prices. More often than not they will desintegrate under scrutiny."

17. Sellers make unusually high profits ONLY when they've had the foresight to make available to demanding consumers, a supply of items that few others have to offer.

18. Sir J. Templeton "Bear markets start at the point of maximum optimism and bull markets start at the point of maximum pessimism. We are close to maximum optimism (in the US stock market 5/96). There is an arrogant belief that things are going to go this way indefiniely."

19. A GOOD speculator looks 'where and when' nobody else does, to afford a better chance of finding bargains.

20. Being in the minority doesn't make you right, but it usually means that you have more to gain if you are right. In general, the market offers big odds only when your interpretaton differs from most other investors. When you share opinions with the crowd, prices will already reflect everyone's expectations.

21. D. Casey "Good speculators are always LOW-RISK speculators. Far from taking risks, speculators only go in for SURE THINGS."

22. Ski's thought: A GREAT speculator looks for 'REVERSE BUBBLES' (the exact opposite of BUBBLES or MANIAS) where everything that can possibly go wrong over an extended period of time (at least several years) HAS and the bear has fed upon itself to a point of hyper pessimism. These 'REVERSE BUBBLES' will usually have as a prerequisite, a capitulation selloff on high volatility and high volume. The still viable investment will be on sale for 90% off or more!

23. Long term forecasts that indicate a CHANGE IN TREND at the right time will NEVER have a widespread acceptance. The reason that such forecasting is dismissed is that by nature, human beings project the future linearly, not cyclically. A good deal of study, experience and practice are required to UNLERN the natural tendency and adopt the correct orientation.

24. D. Casey "The longer good times continue, the less likely bad times seem ... But the truth is just the opposite."

25.The Bank Credit Analyst "Major bull and bear markets rarely end without a substantial overshoot and a buying or selling climax."

26. Mania's kill the smart people partly because being reckless, fully invested, and highly leveraged are the strategies that reap the highest rewards ... not conservative investment practices. R. Prechter "The mania plays the genius for a fool and the fool for a genius, and then slay the fool for believing it."

27. A bull market (prosperity) dulls people's senses.

28. Watch for depressed (long opportunities) or inflated (short opportunities). In other words, look for GROSS distortions or anomalies ... severely undervalued or over-valued opportunities.

29. Look for over-reactions to political events for buying opportunities especially when you want to re-enter a market and are looking a dip.

30. As investment fashions change, the first tend to become last and the last to become first.

31. Bottom picking is a delicate art because stock prices often turn before fundamentals.

32. Watch for extreme psychological top and bottom indicators to alert you to opportunities.

33. Examples for #32 above:
TOP: greed, zealous, fervent, unanimity of public sentiment, elation, passion, fervor, smart move, highly respected, now or never, give in
BOTTOM: non-existent or zero optimism, dismay, disrespected, distress, it can't get much worse, dispair, unbearable pain, dead, fear, panic, wipe-out, give up, gone forever, irreparable, can never recover, not worth the time of day, death

34. Ask the common man what investment is most likely to gain in the future to find out what is overpriced or in for a fall.

35. If there is anything in speculation which requires courage and power of will, it is selling stocks at high prices.

36. When risk is high, it's better to be 'out, wishing you were in' than 'in, wishing you were out'. In the former, you are losing an opportunity. In the latter, you are losing your capital.

37. Leverage into any market at the bottom, not near the top. But keep some cash to weather temporary downturns.

38. When everything about an investment looks right, one can have some positions that are highly concentrated. Mark Twin said .. "You may put many of your eggs in one basket as long as you watch your basket carefully."

39. James Sinclair "The only way to make big money is to have the courage to put your eggs in one basket."

40. Stay with an investment decision until the price rises or the facts prove you wrong.

41. The longer the base building goes on the bigger and more dramatic will be the break out to the upside.

42. Never spend all of your investment money because other terrific opportunities may present themselves.

43. Ski's thought: Contrrians have much better odds of making money by betting against overbought situations versus oversold ones. Why? In oversold (bear market) situations, contarians can never be quite sure if the herd will ever recognize and act on a given oversold condition. In overbought situations, all bull markets will, at some point in time, reverse their course and fall.

44. Ski's Top/Bottom indicator:
a. No matter what the facts, circustances and prevailing knowledge of the day indicates, if there are NO MORE POSSIBLE DOWNSIDE RISKS AND THINGS CAN'T GET ANY WORSE .... you are at or near a bottom ... period. At this point, when everyone is saturated with fear, from a profit/contrarian perspective you should have maximum bravery.
b. As to market tops, no matter what the facts, circumstances and prevailing knowledge of the day indicate, if there is NO MORE POSSIBLE GOOD NEWS AND THINGS CANNOT POSSIBLY GET AN BETTER .... You are at or near a top ... period.
c. One qualifier .... Even if things appear as though they can not possibly get any better, un-heard-of and un-thought-of positive/negative surprises are always possible.

45. Ski's speculative, common-thread theory: All markets that go to un-imaginable extremes on the up-side as well as the down-side must contain at least one or more significant, pervasive, mystery elements that are impossible or nearly impossible to properly analyze. DOW: options and derivatives. Gold: leasing, market intervention Silver: COMEX, hidden stockpiles

skiGolden Nuggets ... What to Buy and Sell#1014424/17/03; 01:27:48

1. Ski's thought on what to buy and sell, "Buy the stocks of companies that promise to produce a stream of increasing future earnings. Or sell stocks of companies that promise ot produce a decreasing stream of future earnings."

2. Peter Lynch "There's no better tip-off to probable success of a stock than people in the company putting their own money in it." (The converse would be massive insider selling.)

3. D. Casey "It's usually a mistake to bet against an established trend."

4. The BEST predictor of higher commodity prices is a sustained period where prices are well below the all-in costs of production.

5. D. Casey "An old economy stock is historically considered cheap if its market cap approximantes total sales."

6. Steve Puetz "In a capitalistic economy, PROFITS (or the expectation thereof) are the most important factor to monitor."

7. Steve Saville "Very few people in the world purchase an investment because it's getting cheaper."

8. J. Powell ... former Vagas gambler "Never play another man's game."

9. Ski's Poor Pricing Paradox: "There are two distinct classes of investors that are prone to making the greatest pricing projection errors: A. rank novices (they know too little and are blissfully ignorant of elementary fundamentals). B. the most knowledgeable or the professionals closest to the particular situation .. (they know too much and don't realize the degree of mistakes that the uninformed herd is capable of.)"

skiGolden Nuggets ... Debt and Borrowing#1014434/17/03; 01:39:22

1. Steve Puetz "People do not borrow money with the intent of letting it sit in a bank account."

2. One persons debt is another's asset.

3. The worst loans are made in the best of times.

4. Eventually, all debt must be repaid or defaulted on. Period.

5. Saving will normally increase the savers future standard of living, just as borrowing will normally decrease it.

6. Savings represent postponed pleasure.

7. When income and standards of living are rising, past debt becomes easier to bear. During deflationary depressions, when wages and living standards decline, debt becomes an onerous burden.

8. Borrow only for goods or investments that produce more wealth (don't borrow for consumer or consumable goods.) Wise borrowing should pay itself off with the increased profit that it generates.

9. Paying down high interest debt is the same as earning interest or money.

10. When the government or anyone borrows just to pay the interest, you can be sure that the game is over.

11. Setbacks encourage reflection, ... success nourishes action.

skiGolden Nuggets ... Bear Markets#1014444/17/03; 01:45:18

1. The biggest daily rallies in market history in % and absolute terms occur in the midst of raging bear markets. They did not happen during the bull bubble period. Bear market rallies are almost always extremely impressive and compelling. Average bear rally length 1929 DOW 9 weeks, 2000 NASDAQ 6 weeks.

2. Adam Hamilton "Bear market rallies are confusing for everyone ... bull and bear alike."

slingshotSki#1014454/17/03; 02:14:54

Holy Smokes, Did you go into HYPERDRIVE?


BelgianOvS/Socrates/Mabry#1014464/17/03; 02:39:15

Thanks for thoughts on Japan/China. We will watch, together, how the trade-flows will evolve and the impact on the currency (dollar-reserve) battlefield.
But one more question : What about the Japanese debt of 160% of GDP ? According to Murenbeeld, the trade surplusses to the US are the following: China=100 billion / Japan=70 / Euroland=80. Any conclusions out of this evolution ? Thanks.

Euro strengthening against dollar and POG in euro lost 13% from recent high. Let us wait and see where the ECB would like to have POG at the end of Q-2 when mark to market time is there. In other words...WHO is ruling the goldprice ?
The FED, printer of the dollar-reserve or the non-US, dollar-reserves in the (ECB) world's central banks ?

Are the outside-US dollar-reserves, inviting the FED to print abundantly with containing POG as a cover ? Is this a gigantic dollar-trap, set up by the euro-factions ?
Thoughts anyone ?

spotlightKitco 24hr. gold chart#1014474/17/03; 02:39:53

Looking at the gold chart since early this evening, it would seem that there are two opposing forces battling it out.
With the world in the state it is in in every respect, I am very courios to know who in the world thinks this should be a very good time to sell/short gold. Does any one know who the gold bear is? Is there anyway to find out? Spotlight.

spotlightgold price#1014484/17/03; 02:50:04

Why is there such a difference in the gold price on this site from the Kitco 24hr. chart? Anyone?
slingshotSpotlight#1014494/17/03; 03:11:01

Anyone who thinks that a rise is in gold price is not in their best interest and is able to sell short.
Who is the Gold Bear? Central banks and those who hedge against gold IMHO.

michellecRe: Kitco 24-hr POG chart#1014504/17/03; 04:35:59

I don't know what's up with Kitco as the last c