USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

Electronic reproduction sourced from
timbervisionminer49er#964022/1/03; 00:26:56

Your "got a few minutes to write back" is a major work of some scope. You are right that I meant revaluation of gold, not remonitize. My use of the term cataclysmic was not necessarily meant in terms of rate of change, rather the magnitude of the change, although I have been under the belief that when "it" occurs it would do so in a contracted time frame.

Thank you very much for your views. Your essay is one to read a few times to absorb everything. True, everyone must ultimately make their own decision. My own growing understanding, has led me more and more to create safety through my own gold reserves.

Best regards,

Trojan"On The Edge" by Stephen Roach (Morgan Stanley)#964032/1/03; 00:40:57

Roach's Conclusion:

In my view, the risks of a recessionary relapse are high and rising.

America is back on the Edge.

Trojan: Very interesting article. Compares 1990-91 Period and Economy/Gulf War (1) to today's situation.
History repeating itself ?

TrojanA Must Read... "The Stevenson Moment" by Dan Denning#964042/1/03; 01:47:17

Once you click on the Link above you will be taken to the Main Page. On the right hand side of the page you will see the heading "The Stevenson Moment"

Just below that you will see a link called "Follow That Link" That should take you to the Story.

The Story is at the end of the Daily Commentary for January 31.

It is well worth reading. I was to put it mildly SHOCKED to read "The Stevenson Moment" by Dan Denning

Why ? It tells you all about All the Oil Interests in Iraq.

The Four Major Countries doing Billion Dollar business there now are Russia, China, France and Germany.

The Two Countries doing NO Business there are USA and Britain.

Wow, LOOK at THAT...

The Four Major Countries against War Vs the Two Major Countries for War.

It is NOT called Regime Change. It is called, "OIL CHANGE" :-)

What a World we live in...

And all this time I thought they were in a room talking about SAddam. Silly me.

Listen USA says Russia, Block 14 to Block 80 are ours. You can have Block 110 To 175. NO, says China, Block 110 to 140 was promised to us. And On it goes.

We must Rid Iraq of Weapons Of Mass Destruction.


TownCrierWashington Post HEADLINE: Investors on a Gold Rush -- Global Worries Restore Yellow Metal's Appeal#964052/1/03; 04:59:12

Washington Post Staff Writer
Saturday, February 1, 2003

Bill Bowler, a 77-year-old Baptist pastor in Tucson, has been listening to the alarming news from Iraq and North Korea and watching the stock markets swoon. And every time another headline screams war and another certificate of deposit comes due, he adds to the hoard of gold in his safe-deposit box. Most of his and his wife's retirement savings are now in gold.

Such a big bet on gold is risky, financial advisers say. But Bowler is unmoved by the warnings. "I feel safer with my investment in gold," he said. "I can take it out and look at it and see it."

Gold is the pessimist's investment of choice: It rises when the dollars slides, the stock market sinks, the economy slumps and the world descends into war.

No wonder it just hit a six-year high.

--------(from url)--------

Pessimist? Hey, since when is a "realist" called a "pessimist"? Just whenever the reality is bleak, I suppose. Pessimists don't tend to have much hope in general, but most of the gold advocates I have encountered are brimming full with hope. And the fact that gold has reached 6-year highs is merely icing on an already ample cake.

Mmmmmmm, cake...


White RoseSpace Shuttle may have failed during landing#964062/1/03; 07:38:57

Multiple tracks of smoke seen, may suspect failure of shuttle during the landing. Major bummer.
CaradocA nation tragedy: SSV Columbia#964072/1/03; 07:46:41

At this point (30-some minutes after landing should have happened), NASA is saying Columbia STS-107 is "missing." Last heard from at more than 200,000 feet/ 12,500 mph and no contact since.

The shuttle is a glider while re-entering (i.e., not powered flight). Even with the "crossrange" capability which Air Force had NASA add during the design stage, it still flies -- in the words of a couple astronauts -- "like a brick." There is no way it could have lingered for more than half an hour before landing.

Take a moment and say a prayer.

Gary SevenSpace Shuttle#964082/1/03; 09:54:29

A tragedy for all involved, to be sure. Yet manned space flight remains an inherently dangerous undertaking, with so many complex variables and so many potential errors or failures to avoid. We take the technology for granted, but it's still like trying to thread a needle and never miss. Every mechanism and technology has its failures.

Ironic that an Israeli was on board, but I find a terrorist link to be incredibly unlikely.

Much can be made of this as another sign of America's deterioration, but such logic is utterly contrived, IMHO.

As the saying goes, if you never fail it means you aren't doing anything.

Let's pray for the families as it best suits us.

slingshotWe Have Winners!#964092/1/03; 10:14:56


Congratulations to the winners of the contest.
Thought I had it there for a second. Would have shared it with WKY Woodsman. Exciting Contest.

New term for the forum.

Being PRO-GOLD does not mean I am a Doomer,Gloomer or Pessimist.
I am now a Commodity-Monetary Evolutionist.

Dollar back up close to 100.00. Could not have it fall below
98.00 at this time. Strong dollar/Weak dollar. Will they please make up their mind.

Gold. Down below $370.00. Anyone going to sell? HA, HA, HA.

Stock Market 8053. Hold that 8000 level. The bilge pumps are working harder to keep this baby afloat.

Unemployment still 6%?

Interest rates, Stable?

Thanks USAGOLD for the contest. Thanks Gandalf the White for his time and effort in running it so smoothly.

Read your ABC book, MK. Could not put it down till I finished. Its rare I do that. Easy to read and a wealth of info.

Enjoying the posts on the forum.
I ask again. Is Another/FOA on the TRAIL?

goldenpeaceMr. Greshem and Mr. Powell message #96377 on "Happy Valley"#964102/1/03; 10:29:25

goldenpeace sending you regards from Easthampton,MA in the heart of "Happy Valley". Still here (and here) through all the "gold wars", wishing you peace with your physical gold purchased from our gracious propriator MK.

GoldnSilver2002A solution to the share weakness#964112/1/03; 12:24:11

With all due respect to those who may have already said this,how about the mining shares pay us the faithful,wonderful investor in real physical gold,platinum or silver.Cant be done you say?Thats right pay us in real physical,deliverable on demand.Then watch the public jump em.There is nothing like holding your own gold.Any company that didnt pay in gold'silver or platinum,would find itself answering questions like,"Why not?You say you mine it."

Soon bank after bank will start giving off warning signals.At this point they are pumping water out of the titanic as fast as the pumps(ppt) can but to no avail.When the failure of confidence in the paper system reaches critical mass the only ones who will sleep well at night will do so on a pillow of physical gold and silver.Get some now,before it runs out and the banks tell us sorry minimum investment is $10,000 for 3 oz of silver and 3 oz of gold.You've got to feel sorry for the little guy,the time to get physical is running out.

barnacle billGoldnSilver2002#964122/1/03; 12:59:07

re: msg#96411

The American public has been dumbed down too much for this to occur. People fully expect to cash in their IRA's, 401k's, CD's, etc.

If they do not have the above; then Plan B would consist of living frugally on Social Security and working part-time at MacDonalds or Walmart

Mr GreshamResponse#964132/1/03; 13:29:11

I think it was here that the first news of Columbine (and a couple other shaking events) hit me -- remember that, Leigh? Good to not be alone at times like this.

My reaction -- some bureaucratic hassles were making me waffle on getting my little girl off to softball league sign-up today by the deadline time. No way we're missing that now -- out the door!

PatriarchiIs the gold price too high?#964142/1/03; 13:50:19

Back in 1971, the United States was selling it's gold at the official price then of $32/ounce. But only to non United States citizens. France was bying all they could at the official price, untill the United States stoped this great deal for the rest of the world. Anyone who was on wall street and or financial advisers, who were recommending gold or gold shares at the time were visited by the FBI and then the SEC, to remind them that they could be considered communists. A close friend and financial analyst, who was recommend gold stocks to his clients, was fired by his wall street firm. The reason given was the threat of an investigation by the SEC. I wonder if this MO is being used today to discourage gold share purchases.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Retails in bookstores for $14.95 ... but you know the author! Get it here for $5.95#964152/1/03; 14:58:29

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

ToolieCountdown#964162/1/03; 17:41:53

Lit up with anticipation
We arrive at the launching site
The sky is still dark, nearing dawn
On the Florida coastline

Circling choppers slash the night
With roving searchlight beams
This magic day when super-science
Mingles with the bright stuff of dreams

Floodlit in the hazy distance
The star of this unearthly show
Venting vapours, like the breath
Of a sleeping white dragon

Crackling speakers, voices tense
Resume the final count
All systems check, T minus nine
As the sun and the drama start to mount

The air is charged, a humid, motionless mass
The crowds and the cameras,
The cars full of spectators pass
Excitement so thick, you could cut it with a knife
Technology, high, on the leading edge of life

The earth beneath us starts to tremble
With the spreading of a low black cloud
A thunderous roar shakes the air
Like the whole world exploding

Scorching blast of golden fire
As it slowly leaves the ground
Tears away with a mighty force
The air is shattered by the awesome sound

Like a pillar of cloud, the smoke lingers
High in the air
In fascination, with the eyes of the world
We stare


Lyrics by Neil Peart, Performed by Rush, Mercury Records, Album Signals
Re: Columbia Launch

May the survivors find comfort in the astronauts love of life.

mikalSpace shuttle news#964172/1/03; 19:27:03

Heat Tile Damage Main Suspect in Cause of Disaster
Saturday, February 01, 2003
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. —Excerpt:"Investigators trying to figure out what destroyed space shuttle Columbia immediately focused on the left wing and the possibility that its thermal tiles were damaged far more seriously than NASA realized by a piece of debris during liftoff.
Just a little over a minute into Columbia's launch Jan. 16, a chunk of insulating foam peeled away from the external fuel tank and smacked into the ship's left wing.
On Saturday, that same wing started exhibiting sensor failures and other problems 23 minutes before Columbia was scheduled to touch down. With just 16 minutes remaining before landing, the shuttle disintegrated over Texas.
Just a day earlier, on Friday, NASA's lead flight director, Leroy Cain, had declared the launch-day incident to be absolutely no reason for concern. An extensive engineering analysis had concluded that any damage to Columbia's thermal tiles would be minor.
"As we look at that now in hindsight ... we can't discount that there might be a connection," shuttle manager Ron Dittemore said on Saturday, hours after the tragedy. "But we have to caution you and ourselves that we can't rush to judgment on it because there are a lot of things in this business that look like the smoking gun but turn out not even to be close."
The shuttle's more than 20,000 thermal tiles protect it from the extreme heat of re-entry into the atmosphere. If the thermal tiles start peeling off in large numbers or in crucial spots, a spacecraft can heat up excessively and plunge to Earth in a shower of hot metal, much like Russia's Mir space station did in 2001.
Dittemore said that the disaster could have been caused instead by a structural failure of some sort. He did not elaborate.
As for other possibilities, however, NASA said that until the problems with the wing were noticed, everything else appeared to be performing fine.
NASA officials said, for example, that the shuttle was in the proper position when it re-entered the atmosphere on autopilot. Re-entry at too steep an angle can cause a spaceship to burn up.
Law enforcement authorities said was no indication of terrorism; at an altitude of 39 miles, the shuttle was out of range of any surface-to-air missile, one senior government official said.
If the liftoff damage was to blame, the shuttle and its crew of seven may well have been doomed from the very start of the mission.
Dittemore said there was nothing that the astronauts could have done in orbit to fix damaged thermal tiles and nothing that flight controllers could have done to safely bring home a severely scarred shuttle, given the extreme temperatures of re-entry....." End snippitt
The Associated Press contributed to this report.

mikalOur National Anthem (Final Version)#964182/1/03; 19:34:55

America The Beautiful
Katharine Lee Bates wrote the original version in 1893. She wrote the 2nd version in 1904. Her final version was written in 1913.
Here is a note from Katharine Lee Bates:
"One day some of the other teachers and I decided to go on a trip to 14,000-foot Pikes Peak. We hired a prairie wagon. Near the top we had to leave the wagon and go the rest of the way on mules. I was very tired. But when I saw the view, I felt great joy. All the wonder of America seemed displayed there, with the sea-like expanse."
America the Beautiful - 1913
O beautiful for spacious skies,
For amber waves of grain,
For purple mountain majesties
Above the fruited plain!
America! America!
God shed his grace on thee
And crown thy good with brotherhood
From sea to shining sea!
O beautiful for pilgrim feet
Whose stern, impassioned stress
A thoroughfare for freedom beat
Across the wilderness!
America! America!
God mend thine every flaw,
Confirm thy soul in self-control,
Thy liberty in law!
O beautiful for heroes proved In liberating strife.
Who more than self the country loved
And mercy more than life!
America! America!
May God thy gold refine
Till all success be nobleness
And every gain divine!
O beautiful for patriot dream
That sees beyond the years
Thine alabaster cities gleam
Undimmed by human tears!
America! America!
God shed his grace on thee
And crown thy good with brotherhood
From sea to shining sea!
O beautiful for halcyon skies,
For amber waves of grain,
For purple mountain majesties
Above the enameled plain!
America! America!
God shed his grace on thee
Till souls wax fair as earth and air
And music-hearted sea!
O beautiful for pilgrims feet,
Whose stern impassioned stress
A thoroughfare for freedom beat
Across the wilderness!
America ! America !
God shed his grace on thee
Till paths be wrought through
wilds of thought
By pilgrim foot and knee!
O beautiful for glory-tale
Of liberating strife
When once and twice,
for man's avail
Men lavished precious life !
America! America!
God shed his grace on thee
Till selfish gain no longer stain
The banner of the free!
O beautiful for patriot dream
That sees beyond the years
Thine alabaster cities gleam
Undimmed by human tears!
America! America!
God shed his grace on thee
Till nobler men keep once again
Thy whiter jubilee!

LeighMr. Gresham#964192/1/03; 19:40:27

I think Columbine happened shortly before I started lurking and then posting here - I hardly remember it. But after I read your message, I started compiling a list of things that we at the Forum have "watched together:"

The Bank of England giveaway announcement
The Washington Agreement (what a bolt out of the sky!)
The Y2K buildup and non-event
The Nasdaq boom'n'bust
The 2000 election (hi, PH, I'm on your side now!)
Various earthquakes (Sierra Madre, where are you?)
Threats of everything under the sun - from drought to energy shortages to currency collapses (soon!next week!hasn't happened yet!)
September 11th
Immediate virtual suspension of the Constitution
ORO vs. FOA, resulting in ORO's removal and FOA's withdrawal
War threats and buildup
Gold's gradual rise

Have I left anything out? In the words of Gus McCrae in "Lonesome Dove," "We've had us a party."

mikalCorrection#964202/1/03; 19:41:27

Star Spangled Banner is the national anthem.
Cavan ManHi Leigh#964212/1/03; 19:47:58

Remember "tom fumich"? I have been graying these last four years. Good to be with all of you.
LeighCavan Man#964222/1/03; 20:00:26

Sure, I remember Tom! I wonder if he ever sobered up. It's fun to go back in the archives and read stuff from the long-departed ones. I miss them all. Once I was reading the archives from the fall of 2000 or so, and I read something really eerie, from 714 or someone; something about how the blood of young Americans would someday pay for Mideast oil. That's not an exact quote, but it was something along those lines.

Ole buddy Megatron, if you're reading this, rest assured that you're not forgotten!

WaveriderSoaring gold price affects DSF sales #964232/1/03; 21:02:41

"The rising gold price has dealt a heavy blow to gold jewellery outlets, which have been nursing big hopes of doing brisk business during the Dubai Shopping Festival (DSF). The international gold price is hovering around $370 per ounce against $273 per ounce a year ago. Gold in Dubai has been around Dh40 per gram for the past few weeks. The situation is more painful as the Gold and Jewellery Group, the umbrella body of more than 400 outlets, is giving away a kilo of gold every day and Dh1 million in cash as the mega prize. Interestingly, Joy Alukkas warns the customers not to wait too long for a big drop in price. The prices have been rising steadily for some time now and the trend is bound to stay quite some time. "Do not expect any substantial drop in the present price in the immediate future and it is advisable for customers to buy before the price finds new highs," he added.

Waverider: Interesting little tidbit out of Dubai - where else can you shop and stand to win a kilo of Gold!

Leigh: Megatron is a friend of mine - I'll make sure he gets your message.

Contest Winners: Congratulations to you all!! And a BIG thank you to MK for hosting and offering the prizes and to Sir Gandalf for being such a WIZARD at managing these fun contests!

sectorReflection on the Challenger and Columbia#964242/1/03; 21:10:08

As NASA depends upon amature video for clues...

...regarding Columbia's reentry failure, space officials may recall that a similar lack of real-time telescopic imaging contributed to Challenger's demise.

If NASA had placed real-time, high resolution tracking video units North and South of the launch site, they would have had real-time monitoring of the solid rocket booster [SRB] profiles during Challenger's ascent. With that crucial data, the video feed would have shown controllers the fatal SRB seal blowout early in the lift phase. There was sufficient time and altitude to abort the Challenger mission and thereby save seven lives.

But NASA didn't think to use imaging or their priorities were for telemetry.

Today, NASA is hampered by a lack of high resolution imagery which would shed light on the control status, tile integrity and attitude of Columbia as it traversed the most dangerous part of its journey.

Such telescopic imaging is cheap. Eight-inch Schmidt-Cassegrain telescopes go for about $1,500. Really expensive Maksutovs go for $3,500. Equipped with CCD cameras and altitude and azimuth electronic slewing features, add another $4,000. The agency knows the exact altitude and azimuth relative to any place along the reentry path and therefore could provide several mobile crews with the necessary starting alt-az data to acquire and track the shuttle as it descended from orbit.

The picture of NASA Johnson Space Flight Controllers having to be informed by tourists with vcrs regarding the status of a reentering vehicle and its condition should not be comforting to future astronauts.

21mabry401k money#964252/1/03; 21:28:27

greetings forum members.i would like some advice.i have a position established in precious metals.i have a small position established in dliema in which i ask advice.i have money in 401k from former employer its in sp 500 i know iknow.its been cut in half value in last 3 years.its still in there.i can move it into ira and do what i want.its with vanguard family now.they closed their gold fund,dont ask me why.should i stay in sp 500 once again i have position eastablished in just asking advice,i make my own beliefs in gold and silver if sp doesnt lose money il be happy.pls lets hear your thoughts and be somewhat still learning
fobjobPrediction.......#964262/1/03; 21:31:27

Since remote sensing technology is MUCH better than when I dabbled in it,(1972) I suspect that we know where all(or most) of the mideast oil is located. Therefore, expect announcements soon after seizing Iraq to the effect that new oil deposits have been located and will be aggressively drilled. The oil price will drop below ten bucks/barrel in an attempt to reflate the world economy. The only question I have is: will it be enough? I suspect not. Opinions???????
Dollar BillFrom the Daily Reckoning#964272/1/03; 21:42:35

"...Is the Fed buying shares and futures and indexes to get the stock market up? You bet! How could they not? If they did not, and the economy does get really bad, and I mean "bad" as in Depression and Vast Human Suffering kind of bad"
Skydog@21mabry.... I took the money and ran!#964282/1/03; 22:03:07

Cashed out my IRA and bought gold eagles. Even with the taxes and penalties my investment is still up 27%

Good luck with you decision.


21mabryquestions#964292/1/03; 22:13:29

skydog,thnx im thinking of doing its hard to fold that position alot of what if thinking when u the sp toast has it taken its beaten over last 3 years.has it gotten any upside potential.does it have downside potential still.i know im asking to much from people asking this.i dream of stocks and gold moving together.see someone using their laptop and cell phone driving tech and other stocks while they got a couple ounces of gold in their pocket.thnx
WaveriderLeigh from megatron#964302/1/03; 22:48:39

I asked Waverider to send this to you via the USAgold forum. I really appreciate your thoughts. Its funny but I still read the posts and I wondered why you never post anymore? Yes there was a lot of people that don't post anymore. Probably like me, couldn't keep our big mouths shut :):) I hope you and your family are profitting from your gold investments, we argued about gold for so long and now it looks like it may break loose to both of our satisfactions. My friend from Spokane came over to our house today in Vancouver BC and we always marvel at how much alike people are when you strip away the veneer of politics and religion. Even though you and I may not have agreed at times, I think our common interest in gold and personal integrity and individual freedom shows we are more alike than we would have believed when we started posting at our gracious hosts forum a few years ago. If you come to the Vancouver Gold show make sure and post when, so I can buy you lunch. Your friend in Canada ... Kirk.
Black BladeHong Kong Trade?#964312/1/03; 22:50:28

Normally gold trades on the Hong Kong exchange in a shortened Saturday session, however, the exchange is closed until Tuesday for Lunar New Year. Still the tickers show gold up at $369.50 spot. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

Golden Bear21mabry (msg#: 96429)#964322/1/03; 23:02:28

Hi 21mabry,

It's time to stop wishful thinking and start some logical analysis of the current situation...

One example to focus on is Black Blade's post of yesterday (msg#:96394) to see what's coming. This from one of the best technical analysts around.

Another is misetich's post a few days ago of Stephen Roach's comments (misetich msg#: 96188), one of the few economists who are still rationally thinking in the US.

With good information, decisions can be made alot easier...


Dollar Billfrom Forum Archives#964332/1/03; 23:09:14

But what determines a currency s international role? Jeffry Frieden, a professor at Harvard University, argues that four factors are important: stability, which reduces the risk of holding assets denominated in that currency; a strong exchange rate, to avoid capital losses for those holding the currency; deep and liquid financial markets which enable holders to diversify or liquidate their holdings; and strong regulatory backing to minimise the possibility of crises (and ensure that the markets remain deep and liquid).
melda laureSector #96424#964342/2/03; 00:05:07

ought to tell that idea to your friendly senator and DEMAND they do it.

"Columbia is lost, there are no survivors."

Geez! Mr. President. Dont say THAT. Not on the eve of the dagor laureamorna, (oh, you meant the shuttle, and not the nation... well that's different)

Now that Dan GOLDin is OUT, I hope this wasn't a case of bad vibes or revenge on his sucessor O'Keefe. I ought to be careful and not try to read too much into what's going on here. They burned the flagship today (yesterday). I hope that was entirely by accident. I'm sure Osama been Sulkin would like to take credit. This has been a very sad day even if for the time being we were able to get away from our morbid fascination with the markets and the WOT and the pending action in Iraq and the kabuki show at the UN, and for all the folks dawn in texsus it's hard to get away from it with all the bits and pieces turnin up.

Anyways, I hope they get on with the next mission and don't spend too much time gefinger pointig. I'm curious to find out if there's gold on mars... water too of course.

A moment of reflection for Columbia and her galant crew...

Black BladeEra of cheap natural-gas prices is over - "Game Over"#964352/2/03; 00:37:14


NORTH AMERICA'S 10-YEAR RUN of cheap natural gas has ended, and prices are likely to climb further until thin supplies are fattened and some demand is choked off. The implications for the U.S. economy could be significant. Though gas prices have been rising fairly steadily for a year, the number of rigs drilling in the U.S. has fallen, and those that are operating are producing less gas. Some in the industry think new rigs could go up this spring, boosting supply, but others say prices won't ease until demand drops. Prices may have to rise as high as $8 per million British Thermal Units before some gas-intensive manufacturers close and people lower their thermostats in winter.

Matthew Simmons, of gas-industry investment bank Simmons & Co. International, thinks that the price spike of 2000 already brought out the last of the $2 gas. "Nobody in the industry thought prices would stay above $3 before 2015, so nobody prospected. The cupboard is empty," says Simmons, who compares the current gas situation to the oil crisis of the 1970s. For now, U.S. gas storage has fallen to an alarmingly low level thanks to colder-than-normal weather so far this winter. There's almost no way, given current gas-field depletion, that the country will refill storage facilities sufficient for next winter, Simmons contends. New supplies could be found off the Pacific and Atlantic coasts and in the eastern Gulf, he adds. Others in the industry point to supplies from the Arctic Circle, to new pipelines from the under-exploited Rocky Mountain region, and to the development of liquefied natural gas imports from other continents. But these solutions would take years to come on line, requiring changes to environmental rules and huge investments in infrastructure. Near term, the solution may have to come from the demand side. Greater consumption of natural gas by U.S. power plants now competes with putting gas into storage during the summer. Those generating stations, to the degree that they are needed to avoid blackouts, will be able to pass along higher gas costs in electricity prices. Other gas-sensitive U.S. industries, such as chemicals and glass, can't necessarily do that, because they compete in a global market and natural gas remains cheap in most of the rest of the world. The industries most sensitive to gas and power prices -- fertilizer and aluminum -- have already largely been knocked out of the U.S. For the rest, Simmons says, a wholesale gas price of up to $5 isn't high enough to cripple industrial demand.

Black Blade: As I have been saying. Now Barron's is catching on and before long the rest of the US will feel the pinch capping any economic recovery hopes. "Game Over"

AristotleHA HA HA Ha Ha ha ha aha ha ha ha haha#964362/2/03; 01:26:21

If I had to give a review of this article, there's not enough space on the internet to accommodate the number of times I would need to type the word "crap" to describe it.

Maybe someone else as articulate as Miner49er or Belgian can make short work of it, but really, any response is beneath us all.

On second thought, I'm sorry I wasted this much space on it already.

I guess ultimately it's good for a laugh, except for the fact that somebody out in the real would will probably buy into this nonsense just because it's appearing in mainstream media. It's a sickening display of media disservice to the public. I pity the fool who wrote it even while I laugh at the underlying desperate motivation implied by it, and moereso sympathize with those who by it shall be influenced to shy away from the world's singular most prudent investment at this time. Oh well, it's a big boy's world... grow up fast or else cry a little.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

BulldogBB : Game over#964372/2/03; 01:26:22

Okay, so what is this game over B.S.? You are a pretty well clued in guy living in Colorado or Wyoming, I just can't keep track. Game over? I feel very good about my bug out place, where the rest of the world can go to hell in a basket, but I think I can survive. Not sure I want to do that, but it is all part of my self-sufficiency capability. But game over? It is very easy to tell the people that log on here that the jig is just about up and I hope you have your P.M.'s and all the other things suggested by the Millenium Ark. We are all believers, I hope that all take your message to heart, but many won't. The "game" is never over, the rules just change.
We had a former partner of mine and her husband over this evening for fondue. I was promoting gold and lo and behold they both agreed that they would start purchasing gold. Nothing more needed to be said. There is a new game in town. It is not over.

Black BladeBulldog - "Game Over"#964382/2/03; 01:47:26

Quite emotional aren't you? I would suggest that the "Game" is the constant bleating of "economic recovery" as far as Washington and Wall Street are concerned. It is more and more difficult to lure in Lemmings with promises of some economic miracle when the rising cost of energy drives out businesses, leads to higher unemployment, saps corporate earnings, hits consumers in the pocketbook, and eventually to high inflation. No energy or no "cheap energy" and there is no economy to speak of. Yes – "Game Over" Just because we don't play their "game" does not mean that they will attempt to keep playing theirs even though from here on it's a losing proposition. I look forward to it as an objective study on human behavior as it all comes unraveled. It should be "interesting".

- Black Blade

PatriarchiWar get you some#964392/2/03; 07:16:37

As Bush and his minions of oil executives are
moving to expand the war against Iraq. And Mr. Blair(aka known as the american hemorhoides in the Arab press) is right behind him, gold has rocketed into space. If you read the newspaper today, again no mention of gold. A wise old friend who made a lot of money in commodities (truly an exception) would look at todays gold chart and say, look at the strength in the market to push the price to this level. He was right, all the press says is stay out, sell,
to high, and the price of gold rises and rises.
I want to thank wall street and the news reporters of today, for making it so easy to make money in the Gold market.

Cavan ManGleaned from the castle next door....#964402/2/03; 07:20:49

By Geoffrey Lean in Washington
26 January 2003
Gigantic dust clouds swirling over China are threatening the world's most populous country with the first-ever "ecological meltdown", experts here warn.

The clouds – which stretch for thousands of miles over Asia and have even reached across the Pacific to North America – are rising from a rapidly growing dust bowl in northern China that far outstrips the notorious one in the United States in the 1930s.

It threatens to drive up the price of food and greatly increase starvation worldwide, and could lead to tens of millions of desperate Chinese environmental refugees.

"No country has ever faced a potential ecological catastrophe on the scale of the dust bowl now developing in China," says Lester Brown, president of the Earth Policy Institute, based in Washington. "Merely grasping its dimensions and consequences poses a serious analytical challenge."

Dust storms have been recorded in China for at least 2,700 years, but they are now increasing alarmingly both in size and in number. The Chinese Meteorological Agency says there were just five major storms in the country in the whole of the 1950s. This rose to 23 in the 1990s. But the first two years of this decade have almost equalled this figure already, with 20.

The storms – which peak in late winter and early spring – can blot out daylight in Beijing and other cities, make it hard for millions of people to breathe and destroy hundreds of thousands of acres of crops. They have closed schools and airports in South Korea and Japan, and caused a Korean car factory to shrink-wrap its vehicles as soon as they come off the production line to stop them being spoiled.

They have even occasionally crossed the Pacific: one in April 2001 covered the west of North America from Canada to Arizona with dust.

The clouds sweep up millions of tons of precious topsoil from Chinese fields and pastures. Gone in a single day, the soil will take centuries to replace. But this is just the most dramatic symptom of the accelerating spread of deserts across the country, which is home to nearly one in every four people on the planet.

Between 1994 and 1999, the country's Environmental Protection Agency reports, the Gobi Desert expanded by 20,240 square miles, to within just 150 miles of Beijing, New, smaller, areas of desert are erupting all over the country. In all, this "desertification" is affecting 40 per cent of the country's land. Partly as a result, harvests – which more than quadrupled between 1950 and 1998 – have fallen sharply, even as China's population and appetite grow.

In Ganzu province alone, some 4,000 villages are facing being submerged by drifting sands, and the Earth Policy Institute believes that throughout the country tens of millions of people may be forced off their land, dwarfing the migrations of the "Okies" from the American dust bowl.

The institute blames "over-cultivation, overgrazing, over-cutting and over-pumping" for the escalating catastrophe. Marginal land is being increasingly pressed into cultivation, but quickly turns to dust under the strain. The country's 290 million sheep and goats strip the vegetation off grazing lands. Cutting down forests removes the trees that bind soil to the ground. And excessive pumping of water from underground acquifers dramatically lowers water tables, drying out the earth.

China is belatedly trying to get to grips with the crisis. It is planting 26 million acres – a tenth of its grain-growing area – with trees. But many die because the soil is already too thin; and, say critics, too many are being planted around Beijing so as to try to "green" the city – and clean the air – before the 2008 Olympics.

As the crisis continues, Mr Brown predicts, the world will soon feel the pinch. So far China has compensated for its falling harvests by eating stocks, but soon it will have to buy massive amounts of grain on world markets. He warns: "Grain prices could double – impoverishing more people in a shorter period of time than any event in history. It would create a world food economy dominated by scarcity rather than by surpluses, as has been the case over most of the last half a century."

21mabrystructuring#9644102/02/03; 07:39:00

situation ive heard about.guys got a ton of kugerands i dont know him.but he keaps bringing in 24 at a time and selling this considered structuring by irs.i know the cash reporting all these rules.feels like im standing on hill in a mountain of dreams
silvercollectorHoly jumping jupiter...#9644202/02/03; 09:48:35

..this is enough to start a brawl in itself.


"Stunned World Grieves Over Shuttle Disaster

Most nations have a reason to grieve for their own--see link

"We are happy that it broke up," government employee Abdul Jabbar al-Quraishi said. "God wants to show that his might is greater than the Americans. They have encroached on our country. God is avenging us," he said. "

(Thanks to G-E poster 8:50am)

CoBra(too)The State of The Union Address ...#9644302/02/03; 10:02:34

Or rather State of the World Address, as Bill Buckler put it in his latest Privateer bi-weekly update.

Quoting from memory the I found the following of interest:

Political promises internally to improve education, solve Medicare, grow the economy, create more jobs, invent non-existant hydrogen cars and on, and on, and on by political fiat.
... And internationally a welfare/warfare plan of immense magnitude. The means, of course, to deliver the political ends are the American People. If that's a correct assumption, then the aims towards private ends of individuals (as stated by The Constitution) have been superceded. ... Serfs live like that.

... And from the GWB Address: "Once again, we are called to defend the safety of our people and the hopes of all mankind. We excercise power without conquest and we sacrifice for the liberty of strangers."

That was probably true and morally acceptable in WWI and II, though since then, and particularily since the end of the cold war the moral justification has become - to say the least - questionable.
What strikes me here as on the edge of absurd is the fact in the last GWB quote "we sacrifice for the liberty of strangers." - Sounds like, we sacrifice the liberty of our own American Citizens to the benefit of the liberty of strangers.

Who deserves this kind of sacrifice? Certainly not the Americans - and I'd guess sonn to liberated people of the
globe may not be equally happy being liberated either.

It reminds me of a pretty cynical Latin teacher I've had at my final exams, as he's given me a brief sentence to translate, which read: The prayer of every Austrian between 1945 and 1955 was - "Lord, please be so kind as to liberate us from our liberators, which have liberated us from our liberators!" ... (as an afterthought the dates in Latin XIXVX almost broke my neck, as the cynic wanted me to put 'em back into Latin).

... Ok, the means are total Keynesian and how this will end has already been proven many a time the "Austrians" ... in total economic devastation.

Go physical to protect your wealth and yourself ... cb2

PS: @ MK - St. Moritz today - Super G - Gold - Steff Eberharter - Silver - tie: Bode Miller/Herminator - great stuff. Great event - and regards FRR

ElGordoDr. Strangelove or How I learned to love the Bomb#9644402/02/03; 10:15:10

Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon says Saddam Hussein "can be absolutely confident" the UK is willing to use nuclear weapons "in the right conditions".

Speaking on BBC One's Breakfast with Frost Mr Hoon said the UK reserved the right to use the weapons "in extreme self defence".
"Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice!"
Goldwater 1964

George Orwell where are you when we need you?

CoBra(too)Re- Last Post#9644502/02/03; 10:17:48

Sorry for not editing - looks like my typing prowess is at a reverse ratio to my mind - or even the other way around.

Apologies, though, I hope you get my drift, anyhoo ... cb2

sector@ elgordo Where is George Orwel when you need him...#9644602/02/03; 10:22:43

"In a world of universal deceit...

...speaking the truth becomes a revolutionary act". George Orwell --1984.

By this definition,

Everybody here is a card-carrying revolutionary.

sectorKoizumi Faltering on "Anti-deflation" Measures#9644702/02/03; 10:24:57

Economic situation deteriorating

With Koizumi lacking both a sense of crisis and the appropriate policies to tackle deflation, the economic situation has worsened since his inauguration as prime minister.

The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average has fallen from the 14,000 level immediately after the prime minister commenced his term in office in April 2001 to the 8,300 level, with the market value of stocks listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange dropping from 382 trillion yen to 237 trillion yen as of Thursday.

This means that 145 trillion yen of the people's "assets" have been wiped out over the period of one year and nine months since the launch of the Koizumi administration.
According to the Financial Services Agency, the total amount of bad loans held by the major commercial banks was about 18 trillion yen as of March 31, 2001. The amount increased to about 26.7 trillion yen as of March 2002 and about 23.9 trillion yen as of the end of September 2002 under the Koizumi administration.
Takuro Morinaga, UFJ Research Institute chief researcher, said: "The Koizumi Cabinet's failed policies have aggravated deflation, but the prime minister didn't show any remorse in his policy speech. The economy will fall into an unrecoverable state unless the prime minister changes his policy by introducing an inflation target, for example."

Koizumi is being pressured hard to inflate rapidly. This action will galvanize Japanese gold bugs into serious buying action.

Hold onto your hats!

GoldendomeAnyone seen 300 Billion lying around?#9644802/02/03; 10:29:23

Let me see if I have this correct. Last year the U.S. Treasury Dept went before Congress panting and pining to have the US debt ceiling raised. This is common nowdays because Congress spends money like they have it, which they don't. Congress raised the debt limit 450 billion to $6.45 Trillion. (Golly, I like the sound of that number. Don't you? Sounds so...imposing, 6.45 trillion.)

Ok, The official U.S. deficit last year ran approximately $150 billion, but now, the treasury dept. says they are within about 10 billion of bumping up against that new higher debt ceiling. Question, what happened to the $300 billion,that made its way into the accumulated debt but wasn't a deficit item? Any guesses? Come on, those of you still working--wake up! Could it be the Social Security Surplus being spent for day to day government operations, in an attempt to make a terrible situation appear less terrible? That spent SS surplus is then added to the accumulated debt? (Because they do intend to pay it back--right?)HaHaHa! Do they think, we think, they're serious? HaHaHa!

Everytime I begin to think about the demographic shift that will take place late in this decade; the one where we spoiled baby boomers waddle up to the trough to gourge ourselves on Ponzi scheme money, only to find out it's not there like it was supposed to be, it prompts me to take in hand more pieces of Gold or Silver to the level that I feel I can afford at the moment!


otish mountain@ Black Blade (energy related question)#9644902/02/03; 11:22:17

With natural gas depleting at an alarming rate, and the demand increasing will we see our energy demands reverting back to 19th century methods,ie coal?

I witness this housing boom in Vancouver B.C. area and all homes are connected to the gas system as well many include gas fireplaces. The greenhouse industry was crippled with the last natural gas spike. There is this underlying ignorance or should I say mind set that there will always be plentiful natural gas supply at a reasonable price.

Will coal ever have a place again as an energy source beyond the power generation - heavy industrial sector, or is it different this time?

Will we be able to depend on the "grid"? Dark visions tell me this may be folly.

Please excuse this semi off topic post, just going thru my
survivor list and thought maybe a couple of bags of coal might be good along with my other stashes.

fobjobBB-Game Over#9645002/02/03; 12:12:06

Again I say:
** fobjob (2/1/03; 21:31:27MT - msg#: 96426)
Since remote sensing technology is MUCH better than when I dabbled in it,(1972) I suspect that we know where all(or most) of the mideast oil is located. Therefore, expect announcements soon after seizing Iraq to the effect that new oil deposits have been located and will be aggressively drilled. The oil price will drop below ten bucks/barrel in an attempt to reflate the world economy. The only question I have is: will it be enough? I suspect not. Opinions??????? **
Another question: Will reflation work at all?

PizzGoldendome, Sector#9645102/02/03; 12:27:47

Goldendome: Where's the 300 billion? My guess is that half of it is due to the fact that the 4th quarter is not a real heavy quarter for incoming cash. Kind of like seasonal work, and likewise for the first quarter, as people with refunds file early and those that owe wait as long as they can. The Gov. has to borrwo more in the winter than the spring due to tax receipts.

The other half has probably been budget busting, but they will "account" over that one. Losing 150 billion in the federal budget is easy.

Sector: Can't find that darn card anywhere to identify myself. Would a gold maple (sorry - gold eagle, can't be too revolutionary) do just as well?? (Smile)


TrojanThe Economic Consequences Of War#9645202/02/03; 12:44:46,6903,886595,00.html

An Interesting Read about a Potential war with Iraq and its implications for the price of oil and effects on the economy.

Wonder how Spot Gold will open tonight ?

It should be an interesting week.

CaradocImpossible to reflate#9645302/02/03; 12:56:54

Excellent analysis!
***Snip follows***
The Pension Benefit Guarantee Corp, the federal agency providing insurance for 44 million private-sector pensions, (according to the Washington Post) "yesterday reported an $11.37 billion loss for the last year, the largest in the insurer's 28-year history." This "shifted the agency from a $7.73 billion surplus to a $3.64 billion deficit." The unfolding pension shortfall debacle encompassing companies, state and local municipalities, and the federal government is one of the more intractable consequences of the protracted Bubble. It is also an issue that will incite calls for "reflation," a seductive elixir that will only further poison the patient. If only stock prices could return to previous levels; then there would be plenty of "money" for future retirees. Yet more money and Credit will not provide the comfortable retirement lifestyle promised to our aging workforce. Actually, the developing pension quagmire provides a solid argument against the inflationary status quo. The problem is only worsened by more consumption, higher housing prices, and a weaker dollar. The only possible solution is sound domestic investment and a stable currency providing the means of producing and trading for the goods and services to sustain our high standard of living.
***end of snip***

A lot of good news bits here like the one above, but each one is only a single brick in the wall. The analysis starts about 2/3 of the way down and puts it all together so that the gestalt truly hits you like brick wall.


PizzPrechter & Gold#9645402/02/03; 13:18:16

Every Saurday morning, my one treat for the week is an extremely large mug of good Columbian coffee laced with brown sugar and then listen to Puplava's broadcast over at Financial Sense.

This last week he had on Prechter. To say the least, it was quite the interview, and more psycological between Puplava doing his best to try to get Pretcher to back off his Elliot wave vision of gold still going to go down, and Pretcher crawfishing around and sticking to his deflation senario.

Prechter comes across, at least to me, as a very shallow thinker (we'd blow him off this forum in about a day) and one that has been short gold for the last year and still averaging up his short positions (and trying to sell his book to cover) - and sweating bullets doing it, cause it sure looks like he's wrong.

One thing I learned many years ago, having interviewed hundreds of employees, customers, etc., only a pure psycopath can hide fear in his speach and speech patterns.

Puplava could not get much of a pro-gold answer out of Pretcher, but Prechter had the abject ring and tone to his voice of one scared puppy. I'd have paid to listen to the broadcast if Sinclair had done the interview.

I think we're right.


misetichThe Dollar's Precarious Position -Though its decline is giving the U.S. economy a short-term boost, if an Iraq war causes it to keep plummeting, things could get ugly fast #9645502/02/03; 13:51:36


HISTORIC DEFICIT. Most worrisome is that war could turn the dollar decline into a rout, sending interest rates skyrocketing and equity prices plunging. Indeed, the day after Bush's State of the Union speech, the dollar recorded its 11th drop in 12 days. The economy is extremely vulnerable to a dollar decline, since America has never been so dependent on foreign capital. The U.S. current-account deficit, the broadest measure of trade including investment flows, is the biggest in 200 years, according to economists at UBS Warburg. The risk that war may spark a run on the dollar is the largest macroeconomic threat to the economy.
HARSH LESSON. Britain's experience during the Suez Crisis of 1956 is instructive. Despite a current-account surplus, the value of Britain's currency was under speculative pressure. Traders were betting that Britain would abandon sterling parity with the dollar, which had been set at $2.80 in 1949. Egypt then nationalized the Suez Canal in July, seizing control from an international consortium.

Britain, together with France and Israel, intervened militarily to take back the canal. But the U.S. government didn't back the action. Neither did the U.N. Britain found itself in a full-fledged currency crisis. It quickly agreed to pull out of Suez to get needed financial support from the International Monetary Fund.

Like all historical examples, the parallels are limited. Still, "the 'takeaway' from the Suez crisis is that unilateral political/military action can sometimes be compromised by global capital flows," says David Bowers, chief global investment strategist at Merrill Lynch. "It is one thing to attract capital to fund a private-sector, tech-inspired, capital-expenditure boom. It is quite another to fund increased military spending."

The White House would be well served to take note that the mood in the financial markets is dark. And nowhere is the tension greater than in the world's currency markets.


US economy is performing "as well" as it is due to lavish military spending and homeland security -
However, this type of spending is unproductive - and astute investors are aware
No matter the constant rhetoric of a strong US $ - the game is over - with 16,000 tons of CB's gold gone-

Disagreements between the world two Economic Superpowers does not bode well for the US as it requires constant re-investments to fund its needs -

Got gold?

Boilermakerotish mountain msg#: 96449#9645602/02/03; 13:53:52

I'd like to respond to your question to Black Blade. I spent 35 years working for a company, B&W, whose primary business was designing and building coal fired steam generators for industrial and utility power generation. I also grew up in a home in New Jersey that my father built in 1936 that was heated by coal. I remember the coal delivery truck backed up to the basement window where the coal shute filled our bin with shiny black Pennsylvania hard coal. We had a furnace with an automatic screw coal feeder and I don't recall any discomfort in that house. Ashes were minimal and were generally scattered in our Victory Garden.

Fast forward 60 years and nearly everyone has forgotten or dismissed coal as a serious energy source. But it still produces half of our electric power and it could become the raw material for cleaner fuels such as oil and gas. In my opinion it is far more likely to become a clean energy source than any other natural resource including renewables.

Think of it this way; a ton of low sulfur eastern bituminous coal delivered to the shore of the Ohio River can be purchased for about $30. This ton of coal contains about 25mmbtu which is the energy equivalent of 4 barrels of crude oil or 25mmcf of natural gas. So coal, on an energy eqivalent basis is 1/4 the cost of oil and gas. The US has more coal reserves than the ME has oil. Western coal is even cheaper and more likely to be the energy source of the future.

I agree that most of us will not revert to coal burning but don't be surprised if coal is the main course of the future energy menu.


a nation of oneTo Goldendome (02/02/03; 10:29:23MT - msg#: 96448)#9645702/02/03; 13:59:30

You say: "Let me see if I have this correct. Last year the U.S. Treasury Dept went before Congress panting and pining to have the US debt ceiling raised. This is common nowdays because Congress spends money like they have it, which they don't. Congress raised the debt limit 450 billion to $6.45 Trillion. (Golly, I like the sound of that number. Don't you? Sounds so...imposing, 6.45 trillion.)" and "Ok, The official U.S. deficit last year ran approximately $150 billion, but now, the treasury dept. says they are within about 10 billion of bumping up against that new higher debt ceiling. Question, what happened to the $300 billion,that made its way into the accumulated debt but wasn't a deficit item? Any guesses? Come on, those of you still working--wake up! Could it be the Social Security Surplus being spent for day to day government operations, in an attempt to make a terrible situation appear less terrible? That spent SS surplus is then added to the accumulated debt? (Because they do intend to pay it back--right?)HaHaHa! Do they think, we think, they're serious? HaHaHa!"

--Just the very concept of government is itself already a corruption.

misetichIt's Not "All About Oil," But...#9645802/02/03; 14:04:23


Fringe thinking? Hardly. The suspicion that George W. Bush's showdown with Saddam Hussein is "all about oil" isn't just a fixation of the American left. It's gaining adherents among the European intelligentsia and in the Arab world. "Washington says it wants to eliminate any threat of interruption of the flow of oil, to ensure that it will be accessible to U.S. oil companies," said British Labor Party politician Alice Mahon on Jan. 22. "A different and more compliant government in Iraq would make that possible."
HIGH ANXIETY. Since the U.S. military would control Iraq's oil and gas deposits for some time, U.S. companies could be in line for a lucrative slice of that business. They may snag some drilling rights, too. "The oil-service industry is pretty much American-dominated," says an exec at one U.S. company. That means outfits such as Halliburton (HAL ) and Baker Hughes (BHI ), as well as construction giant Bechtel Group, could feel just as victorious as the U.S. Special Forces troops.

The mere prospect of a U.S. presence in the region troubles the French and Russians -- both key to the U.N. drive to head off war. The French have long been a major player in developing Iraqi fields. And the Russians, via companies such as Lukoil, are angling for a piece of the action. They, too, are worried about anything that causes crude-oil prices to fall. The war "is totally about oil," says a top executive at France's TotalFinaElf. Adds Simon G. Kukes, chief executive of Russia's Tyumen Oil: "I don't see much room for Russian oil companies" in postwar Iraq.

Its not about oil Bush says - but the majority of the world doesn't buy it -
TRUST - US is on the verge of losing Trust amongst its long time allies who have provided the US with the necessary investment inflows to keep the juggernaut going - Things have changed - TRUST has been lost -

Saudis have reputadly pulled the plug and billions of $ have flown back away from the US -

The Turks are resisting US pressure for a large contingency of armed personnel

The Russians are dumping US $

Germany and France have a taken a stand publicly

TRUST has been lost

Got gold?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Ally yourself with a gold broker that is knowledgeable and also cares...#9645902/02/03; 14:08:46


In the September 2000 issue of News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals' founder and proprietor Michael Kosares said:

"[M]uch of this issue is devoted to oil, inflation, international politics and gold. . . . . Though the dollar continued to rise against most international currencies during the past month, most currencies ( including the dollar) were depreciating against real goods. . . . AND IT IS THE TREND THAT HAS ECONOMISTS CONCERNED. Crude oil, which must be purchased with dollars, is being blamed as the chief culprit. When the dollar price of oil rises, it fans the inflationary fires of nearly every nation in the world. All of this could at some point inspire a dollar rebellion among the nations of the world, with both oil producers and oil consumers capable of finding fault with the dollar simultaneously . . . . In such a case gold, of course, would become one of the primary beneficiaries and the dollar could go into a tailspin."

ABCs bookTake note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:

1. They averted disaster in the stock market.

2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.

News & Views is available to our clientele only. However, the latest issue is just back from the printer and available to prospective gold investors who request an INFORMATION PACKET on one-time only basis. We invite your request.

If you would like to get a feel for the thinking that forms the basis for market conclusions like the one featured above, take advantage of the offer to include THE ABCs of GOLD INVESTING: PROTECTING YOUR WEALTH THROUGH PRIVATE GOLD OWNERSHIP. A prompt with ordering information will come up after you submit your request for the INFORMATION PACKET.

misetichThe Deficit's Warm and Fuzzy Wrapper -Bush swears he won't burden future generations with debt. Noble words, but the Administration's spending spree contradicts them #9646002/02/03; 14:25:36


Plug in real numbers, and near-term deficits will top $300 billion for years to come. Bush's own budget, due out next week, will pretty much concede those estimates.

HIGHER, HIGHER. Most troubling, this isn't likely to be a short-term deficit that will correct itself once the economy gets back on track. The CBO figures growth will average a healthy 3.2% a year over the next decade. It's a pretty good rate -- but not nearly enough to push back the rising sea of red ink.

Here's the rub: The CBO excludes those new long-term promises that Bush and many in Congress are pitching. For example, while Bush says Medicare reform, including a new drug benefit, would cost $400 billion over the next decade, Democrats want to spend hundreds of billions more than that. And the real price is likely to be much higher than Bush claims.

The President's own budget, due out next week, will also propose additional tax cuts not included in his ballyhooed stimulus plan. Just one -- permanently repealing the estate tax -- would empty the Treasury of more than $50 billion a year. And then there's the price of fixing the alternative minimum tax, which, if not scaled back, would clobber one-third of all taxpayers by the end of the decade. That fix would cost more than $500 billion.

THE HOLE TRUTH. Bush's calculations have lots more omissions. But let's step back for the broader view. A couple of years ago, policymakers talked about wiping out the $3.4 trillion national debt by the end of the decade -- and they were serious. Now, some analysts fear the U.S. is headed for a $6 trillion national debt. Yet the President told Congress in his address, "We will not pass along our problems to other...generations."

In an effort to inoculate the White House against its own, shockingly high deficit numbers, Budget Director Mitch Daniels has been making the rounds, dribbling out the bad news and insisting these deficits are nothing to worry about. In one interview with The Washington Post, Daniels said getting back to fiscal balance should be a priority. And he added, "We can do it in a year or two. All we'd have to do is limit spending growth to inflation and undertake no new initiatives." Sounds like a great idea. Too bad nobody told his boss.

The "productivity miracle" - new paragigm - new economy - rosy surplus projections have all turned to ashes

What is keeping up the US $? - Caution: When staring on the abyss - don't look down

Got gold?

Golden BearCoBra(too) (msg#: 96443)#9646102/02/03; 14:28:21

Thank you Sir for posting Bill Buckler's comments... I was interested in his words and became a subscriber a few months ago - excellent commentary on the state of play in the world today.

I was also in his neighborhood on holidays in January without even knowing it - meeting him personally and having a chat would sure have been fascinating...


Mr Gresham21mabry#9646202/02/03; 14:34:02

"tellin' myself it's not as hard, hard, hard as it seems..."?

Maybe you could do your thesis on "Musical Alchemy: Golden Themes in Lyrics of Led (Zeppelin)"

Thoughts while sitting outside a boarded-up K-Mart yesterday, watching dozens of new-looking SUVs go by:

Renting, Equity and Liquidity.

Renting is what most people do, even with their mortgages at 90% LTV. Moving and/or selling (liquidating) wipes out any equity.

Equity is owning enough of your house/car/metal to get something out of it in liquidation. (PM = 100% equity)

Liquidity is the ability to go either way: Enough cash (or metallic money) in hand to pay rent (in a down asset market), or buy into equity (in a up asset market).

Renting is part of your P&L (profit & loss) statement, equity is in your balance sheet. Liquidity is the part of your balance sheet that keeps you from having to liquidate other assets you'd like to hang onto through a down market.

Since you can't control all economic times, the occasional (or secular) bad P&L years need liquidity to get through.

Pizz: My impression from Prechter's book was of the irresistable secular downturn in money aggregates that will come from the low-quality pumping up of quantity that's been done since, well, since the Fed started. He really left me with the whiff of "paper burning" that we talk about here. All types of paper, in all asset classes...until the bottom is found.

I just think he hasn't reckoned fully with the effect of a Fed willing to undermine the potential value of its proprietary product, the Dollar. (Will/can other dollar-holders somehow take over the controls and right the ship as the Fed throws stability to the winds? Doubt it.)

So, as the flight to liquid assets snowballs, those liquidating out of declining assets will find themselves getting out of the asset frying pan and into the Dollar fire. They will quickly try to slide on over, ahead of others, to a money that is not being undermined.

While competition on prices will send them plummeting, competition between value-holding moneys will also leave one man standing...

Get liquidity.

Noble1Cobra(too) (USAG msg. #96443)#9646302/02/03; 14:41:54

Your quote from the GWB speech---"Once again, we are called to defend the safety of our people and the hopes of all mankind."---Methinks his speechwriter watches too much Star Trek.

Remember: Physical gold transcends lifetimes.


TrojanWhite House Warns Against Moving Fuel Rods#9646402/02/03; 14:46:41

No Link: Doesn't work. I tried it.

White House Warns Against Moving Fuel Rods
by Joo Yong-joon ( This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. )

The White House said Sunday regarding the news reports that United States reconnaissance satellites observed North Korean trucks seemingly moving fuel rods from Yongbyo on Friday, any activity to start reprocessing fuel rods would be considered as provocation intending to threaten and menace international society.

The US State Department also said if the report were true, "it would be very serious development of the situation."

The New York Times reported Friday that a wide range of activity had been seen during January and US intelligence analysts concluded fuel rods might be being moved, or delivered to the reprocessing facility.

Although the Bush administration has not officially confirmed such a report, White House spokesman Ari Fleischer said that such activity would isolate North Korea more from international society, calling for peaceful resolution of the current situation.

US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher also mentioned that if there were any movement of fuel rods, it would be "a very serious development of the situation and North Korea was heading in the wrong direction again.

Trojan: The Bush administration just doesn't get it IMHO.

It is like telling North Korea what to do next. They surely will START moving Fuel Rods now if they haven't started already.

What can Bush do about it now ? Nothing at this moment in time.

I expect this warning will draw a response from North Korea within days and it will ADD to World Tensions.

If I were North Korea I would just happen to reply on Wednesday as Powell is at the UN presenting his Evidence on Iraq.

This might start to also have some effect on the POG as it appears to really be reaching the Serious Stage before Resolution or Non Resolution.

Black Bladeotish mountain #9646502/02/03; 15:01:42

I remember my grandparents used to heat with coal. One side used to have a bin filled every year and burned it in a cast iron oven and the other side had was as boilermaker said, loaded into a basement bin that fed into a furnace. I occasionally smell the burning coal late at night as neighbors are heating their homes. However, I know many communities (if not most) have ordinances against the burning of coal or wood either all year round or during certain times of the year (usually when it's cold and needed most). Then there are the politically connected fringe elements who are against exploitation all forms of energy at anytime from anywhere.

The reason NG is the desired fuel source is the low emissions of so-called "greenhouse gasses" and the Federal and state restrictions on power generation. Coal-fired generation would be cheap and plentiful as there are enough domestic reserves to last for a few centuries in the US. However, the environmental restrictions and limited "carbon credits" available make an expansion on coal-fired power generation unlikely. That is why nearly every new power plant is NG-fired. Clean coal technology is still in its infancy and there is the possibility that coal fuel liquids may eventually become cost effective as the POO rises. However, as a large scale electricity generation source coal is under a lot of environmental and political pressure.

I would guess when the US consumer and US business have their backs up against the wall as the NG sources become less accessible we will see restrictions against coal (and nuclear) relaxed. Either way the era of "cheap energy" is over – dead and gone for all practical purposes even though oil prices may retract after Iraq – the problem is that oil is rarely used for power generation and even then only certain grades are acceptable. Another problem is that fuel switching is not an option with most older and certainly not with new NG-fired power plants. As I live in a more accepting community with abundant coal supply I could easily use coal as a heating and cooking source so my options are much better than say someone in LA, Chicago, or NY. I used to load a few coal chunks or wood in a cast iron stove for heat and cooking in Nevada and Idaho with no problem. If you have access and a way to use coal then a supply of coal would probably not be a bad idea for your survival plan.

- Black Blade

BelgianAri's HAHAhaha- article - independant money....#9646602/02/03; 15:09:28

Ari, let me put it this way :
Tell anyone out there, the following, and wait for his/her reactions...if any :
- The US$ is a world's debt-paper that reached the end of its timeline.
- Oil will be paid in euro.
- POG declines, because there's a shortage of it.
- Gold will explode into the thousands of euro - dollars.
- etc...

Nobody takes the serious interest-effort to analyse "WHY" POG has been (still is) at such low price-levels ! NOBODY !
But it isn't even done for Platinum or other tangibles.
Why should they bother about Gold ? Note that the euro/oil-article posted by waterboy, very strangely, said not a word about Gold !
But Gold doen NOT and will NEVER need any press ! We do understand why the largest Gold-Rush will come from the paper-gold arena...desperately trying to shift into the Physical, ALL AT ONCE !

There can't be any press about the correlation of the *MATURING EURO* and *INDEPENDANT OIL* !!! And above all...never analyse the W.A. !

Your...mine...our PHYSICAL GOLD IN POSSESSION, "cannot" be manipulated...anymore ! And that's the hart of the matter that must be avoided at all cost, to become evident.
Too much or an increasing amount of Physical in Possession gives the Gold Pricing Power into the hands of these Holders. Because it is the ultimate goal of these Physical Gold Holders, to dictate its revalued price from the past and its future valuation-dynamic, as well.

A very certain faction (goldclub), within the gold-manipulation (management) affair, knows very well what is on hand...and has already positioned itself for the big Physical explosion ! That same faction controls a lot of media !!! Be grateful to them Ari...they are part of making it inconveniently heavy for its price.

Who's going to explain about the ECB/BIS alliance (euro-political-power) with regard to the POG-management ? Puplava...Prechter...?
Are those, who repeat about the 16,000 tonnes of short-gold, buying / accumulating any Physical ? No Sir, they all keep adding (promoting) paper to the paper-floodings. Frustrated when it doesn't go their way !
Could it be that the BIS has NOW, both hands, on the gold valve and is controlling the **** contract - filling *** (and backing) !? Where are those illuminati, capable of analysing this "strategy" and more importantly, the reasons why ?

How can an ever proliferating $-reserve-currency, not been seen against the background of the paper-gold supporting arena in the process of being forced to kill itself ? can't !

All spotlights should be directed on Gold, the *Political* tool ! Maneuvering-ground for two ($/€) currency-system blocks.

Check out the IMF crisis-managements and its Gold-affairs !
Try to understand why, exactly, Canada AND Australia (US-allies) are heavy goldsellers ! Why was POG so low during the pré-euro period ? Will China remain for ever, so friendly towards the US$ ? Will the upcoming socialist South Americans (Brazil, Venezuela) remain 100 % dollar-currency allies ?

How much, re-allocated, Gold is hidden in the ww BIS-System ? Why is nobody ever questioning the present $-reserve-currency system and theoritizising about the possibility of failiur ? What if a future shortage of deliverable Gold is "politically" induced ? No such speculations evere reach the media for the simple reason that it is Happening !
Even a dramatic low in POG (253$) wasn't a serious reason enough to elaborate on Gold and its history ! Because BIG PLAYERS never tell their whole story !

Who is going to sell his Physical Gold for a declining dollar ??? Helo, independant investment advisors...where are you ?

The distinction between "gold-stocks", "contract-gold", and "physical-gold-investments" is widening as the relative "soundness" of these asset clases is further exposed daily ! How does one explain this to the wide variety of different participants ? To difficult and time consuming. Lots of goldpaper is synonim for piles of Gold !
Try to prove it is exactly the opposite !

Goodnight Ari and all.

Trojan(No Subject)#9646702/02/03; 15:13:38 Snippet:

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - British Labor politician Tony Benn said he had filmed an hour-long television interview with Iraqi President Saddam Hussein Sunday, the first in over a decade.

He said he had asked Saddam "very simple and very short questions" during the interview that dealt with weapons of mass destruction, links to al-Qaeda terror network and oil.

"This was a much more focused visit to have an opportunity for a television interview where he (Saddam) will be able to make his own case to the world," Benn, 77, a former long-time member of parliament, told a news conference in Baghdad.

Benn said he did not want to reveal Saddam's answers in the interview earlier in the day "because I am hoping that within the next day or two, the whole interview will be broadcast in its entirety."

He did not say when or where the interview would be broadcast. He was leaving for London via Amman late Sunday.

Trojan: I hope for American Viewer's that the USA won't tell the Major Networks NOT TO AIR the interview because it might carry CODED Messages.

The next three days should be most amazing for News and Hopefully Gold.

PizzMr. G#9646802/02/03; 15:20:25

Pretcher reminds me of a theorist that makes his predictions based upon a theory that looks great on the drawing board, but fails to take into consideration man and his desperate attempts to keep the inevitable from happening.

As far as paper burning, I'm reminded of my days on the farm when my father, every fall, and every week, had me rake leaves. I got by butt blistered once for arguing the logic of the once a week raking. There weren't enough leaves in a week for me to justify the effort of doing the whole yard. The pile was too small to start a good fire, and the wind kept blowing the darn things around faster than I could rake them. Why not wait until all the leaves had fallen, rake them once into a big pile, and have one big fire?

And like a broken record, I'll repeat - Deflation is not an option. I still think we're in late fall in Kondratieff winter - with lots of leaves still on the trees, but the wind is picking up, but the burning is a ways away.

Liquidity? You bet. Did everything I could several months back. Problem is, as things keep going to heck, I keep wondering if it's going to be enough. Wish my bosses had started about a year earlier - where's that printing press when you need it anyway - oh, there's only one private corp that has that priviledge. . . . .


CoBra(too)@Noble1 - This is a direct quote!#9646902/02/03; 15:30:28

... And please do not omit part of the message. As the second part should give you, if you are an american, that is, the shivers ...

- Is it a speech writer or whatever - the leader of the Western World said it- agin from the GWB Address of the State of the Nation (World):
"Once again, we are called to defend the safety of our people and the hopes of all mankind. We excercise power without conquest and we sacrifice for the liberty of strangers."

And yes, it sounds like Star Trek. Unfortunately, the future has already overtaken the present, as even the may figure out in time - if there is time.

... And it even sounds great in a humane and charitable way to sacrifice for the liberties of strangers. Wow! I'm really impressed - as I hope you will be too in surrendering le beau rest of your liberty to your leader. - And then you'll officially go on to teach the rest of the world a kind of democracy a republic has never experienced.

... As I'm still very much a pro-american european - and I always will, due to so many great friends I've made over time - I do see the problems cropping up in geo-economic and more so - political misconceptions - the 'patriots' are led into by "the establishment" ... that I may feel the ghost writers for GWB are really Mr. Spock, or is it spooks.

Shucks, who cares we nuke 'em anyway seems the strategy of last resort ... then why Iraq and funny dictator Saddam, when there's N.Korea, India, Pakistan and who ever else with reality of nuclear capacity ... sans oil, of course!

Personally, I find the Iraq question a travesty to the real goals and at best a diversion of truth.

The sorry truth is that the global monetary system is totally bankrupt and the search for scapegoats will not even be (inter-) national pastime, only past its time.

--- And physical gold transcends lifetimes - so be it - cb2

TrojanI Think We All Deserve A Good Laugh !!!#9647002/02/03; 15:30:46

With the News being so depressing and sad the last few days, I thought everyone deserved a good laugh.

Since the aricle talks about Jobs, The Economy and The Stock Market I hope it is OK to post it here.

Go Gold...

Black Bladefobjob#9647102/02/03; 15:31:55

I am not sure how remote sensing would work for subsurface structures. The last time I was involved using remote sensing was to use DEM's for the USGS Reston, VA data base and overlay some IRSI data for surface wavelength data that made a nice draping over a 3D block model when I added in subsurface geological and geophysical data. I then converted an old MAC program (Flyby) so that as I rotated the model it gave the appearance of flying above the ground and through the ground around drill rigs and drill string glyphs. I did this all on a UNIX work station when I was beta testing an IBM program call "Data Explorer" for a major oil company through a university grant. It was a lot of work converting the data and the coordinates from lat-long to UTM and rewriting code from PC and MAC software. In fact it was more work than I wish to remember. That was a few years ago and though it was a lot of mental masturbation, I have since gone on to more useful and profitable endeavors. However, as I said I don't know how subsurface data would be accumulated with remote sensing as I had to manually entered the data. I know that it has been used to a small degree of success in the mineral industry and gravity/magnetic airborne data have been somewhat useful for both petroleum and mineral.

As far as reflation is concerned, I suspect that events will unfold in a similar fashion as they did in the 1970's with no/slow growth and inflation - stagflation. The Fed may try to pump up the money supply to stimulate growth and in effect weaken the dollar to help US exports. I doubt that it will work for long but desperate times call for desperate measures.


- Black Blade

fobjobBurning Coal#9647202/02/03; 15:32:54

Some of my friends here in Salt Lake have several tons of coal under their flower beds, covered with plastic sheeting to keep the water from leaching away the BTU's.....then covered with soil and a 'strategic reserve'.....
TrojanBush's Budget, Just Out. 2.23 Trillion New Record#9647402/02/03; 15:53:55

Buddy, can you please spare a dime for a cup of coffee, please. :-)
silvergolongHydrogen fuel cells to save the day???!!#9647502/02/03; 16:05:54

I didn't see the state of the union speech--couldn't bear to watch it, really--but later I saw a snippet of the speech where Bush talks about how Hydrogen-powered fuel cells were going to be an alternative energy source that would save us from oil dependency.

Now, hydrogen fuel cells are interesting, and almost certainly more efficient than internal-combustion engines, but what Bush failed to mention was that Hydrogen is a medium of energy transmission, not an energy source. It takes energy to separate hydrogen out of H2O!!! And where is that energy going to come from???

Maybe Bush actually did cover that in some other part of his speech, and I didn't see it. But later, the lapdog press picked up the story and added absolutely no value--ABC news had a little segment the next night about fuel cells, and how GM and Ford were investing huge $$$ to bring this technology to market. But did ABC mention that hydrogen is not a SOURCE of energy... and that we'd still be faced with the same set of energy problems we face today if suddenly the whole world stopped using internal combustion engines? Of course not.

The government, the media, and the people are so woefully ignorant of how utterly dependent we are on cheap energy, and where it comes from, that it is truly terrifying. In the meantime, we just keep vacuuming up oil and natural gas out of the ground like there's no tomorrow.

Thanks to Another/FOA, we all know the relationship between gold and oil. As long as every aspect of our society remains in such a state of ignorance, gold will just become exponentially more valuable.

But ultimately, if major steps aren't taken soon, the world won't be a very pleasant place to live in no matter how much gold we have. Implementing a sensible food and fuel hoarding program is clearly a necessary, but not sufficient, action. We all need to start raising some real awareness about these issues now if we hope to continue living in anything approaching a civilized world.

fobjobBB-Remote Sensing#9647602/02/03; 16:07:40

I have a few doubts myself. Back in 1972, all we had to work with was 4 bands from ERTS-B, later called LANDSAT. From that data, we constructed pseudo-stereo images, sliced densities with a video system(which I built), utilized various methodologies that make me nervous discussing in a public forum, even after all these years....(contact MK for my e-mail address if you're interested in the grisly details)....but it boiled down, at the end, to a trained eyeball to piece together the 'potentially oil-bearing subsurface structures' and had to be flown magnetically to fine it down to a point where drilling might be risked. (A lack of suface vegetation was a must!) In my previous post, I guess the definition of the term:"reflation" has to be picked over....for instance, if I was a large debtor 'entity', and discovered a pile of gold(or 'black gold')(or stole it), and paid back my debts with it, would that really be 'reflation'???????
PizzSilvergolong#9647702/02/03; 17:16:16

Yes, they seem to have a plan to completely rework the automobile industry to pull us out of the depression that isn't coming.

Problem is we're 15 years out for any meaningful economic impact.

How to bridge the gap - how about a war time economy for the next 10 years at least? Iraq, then Iran, and a little kicking around in N Korea for a while. We'll probably have to let Taiwon go it alone with China, but then again maybe not.

If you read between the lines, and try not to be too short term oriented, the government is telling us the gameplan.

So far this past few months, Greenspan has mentioned the four letter word to wall street - Gold, and it appears to have had the shackles removed a bit. The strong dollar policy appears to be out the window so as to bring back a little manufacturing and cut the trade deficit. And the new boom will be replacing everyone's cars, since most don't need a bigger better computer, it's just this little war thing has to happen to bridge the gap.

Fits in nicely with a 10-15 year bull market in gold.

So if I were a real savy investor, I'd look for a mothballed manufacturing plant, convertable to fuel cell production, that in the meantime could make munitions and I'd want to be paid in gold bullion.

Simple. Hope there's no speed bumps in the way.


mikalBloomberg wishes past hope on $$ trader sentiment #9647802/02/03; 17:24:43

Yen May Fall on Expectations Japan Will Sell Its Currency Again
By John Brinsley
Tokyo, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -Excerpts: "The yen may fall for a third day after Japan said Friday it sold about 700 billion yen ($5.84 billion) since mid-January to stem a rally that has crimped the country's exports, spurring speculation it may do so again.....
Japan sold yen for dollars several times from mid-January, a senior Ministry of Finance official said, to stem a 12 percent gain over the past year that erodes earnings of exporters such as Canon Inc. which earns three-quarters of its revenue abroad. It was the first time Japan sold its currency since June, when it spent 4 trillion yen over seven days to prevent its rise. Last year, Japanese authorities announced their actions each time.
``There´s now the fear of not knowing when the Bank of Japan will come in,´´ said Robert Rennie, currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney. ``That´s going to weaken the yen.´´ The yen will probably trade between 117.50 and 122.50 to the dollar in the next few weeks, he said." End snippits

Cavan ManIf receipts are down and we're cutting some "taxes"....#9647902/02/03; 17:38:41

where does all the "money" come from?????

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush will propose a nearly $470 million boost in NASA's budget for fiscal 2004, an administration official said on Sunday, promising investigators would look into whether past cutbacks played any part in the space shuttle Columbia disaster.

The disaster has prompted calls for increased spending to upgrade the aging shuttle fleet and develop a new space plane. Columbia broke up over Texas on Saturday, killing all seven astronauts aboard, just 16 minutes before it was due to land in Florida.

While NASA's budget has been reduced over the past decade, a senior administration official said Bush would boost funding for the space agency by almost $470 million to $15.47 billion in his fiscal 2004 budget.

The budget, which will be released on Monday, does not include costs associated with Saturday's disaster.

Dollar BillDoug Nolan compares fates#9648002/02/03; 18:15:04

The boom-time Argentine economy came to depend on foreign-sourced finance, much of it of speculative character. Once addicted, all involved were steadfast in refusing to recognize the sickness. Foreign borrowings financed too much consumption and too little of the type of sound investment capable of creating the necessary economic wealth to repay Creditors. Once this course was chosen, it was only a question of the dimensions of the inevitable financial and economic dislocation. Reliance on foreign borrowings in combination with economic maladjustments over time combined to create acutely fragile debt structures. Indeed, it was precisely the nature of the speculative capital flows fostering non-productive Credit excess that proved fatal to the Argentine financial system. Frail debt structures and economic maladjustment left the currency, Credit system, and economy hopelessly vulnerable to both the inevitable reversal of speculative flows and attendant capital flight. Confidence in the peso's peg to the dollar became of momentous consequence. Almost overnight, Argentine financial assets were no longer an acceptable medium for international exchange. Importantly, none of these types of issues have played a role in post-Bubble Japan.

So we have very difficult and complex questions to contemplate in our pursuit of What Will Be Post-Bubble America. Most regrettably, the Greenspan Fed, Wall Street, the GSEs and Washington politicians are resolute in their determination to stonewall the adjustment process. Importantly, this dangerous course of prolonging the Bubble is categorically based on continued Credit excess – inflating dollar financial claims. This should not today be in dispute, and incessant Credit inflation is why we remain fixated on dollar vulnerability and devaluation. There may certainly come a day when faltering confidence and a run on dollar financial assets wreaks (Argentine-style) havoc on the U.S. Credit system – especially its acutely fragile "Structured Finance" parallel "banking" system – but the system today retains its capacity for unchecked and rampant inflation of dollar claims (Credit inflation).

For the U.S. Bubble Economy it remains inflate or die. Reckless Japanese Credit inflation was terminated before it was too late. Argentina's was not.

The inescapable consequences of the U.S. Credit Bubble Dilemma include only more Credit and speculative excess, heightened financial fragility, deeper economic maladjustment and impairment, and a further debasement of our currency. Considering what we have and continue to observe, I do not feel it is at all outrageous to assert that our system has set a perilous course toward the collapse of the world's reserve currency. This is the harsh reality that we should recognize as a nation as we contemplate Post-Bubble America. And no amount of inflation will change the facts of economic life. There are no available shortcuts but many risky gimmicks to prolong the Bubble, hence only making the inevitable day of reckoning all the more painful and Balkanizing. There is nowadays only louder call for stimulating and "reflating," but there is absolutely no discussion of the consequences. There is so much a stake. It is our view that the longer we travel down this dangerous course the more rapidly the Post-Bubble America pendulum swings away from a Japanese scenario in the direction of Argentina.

ElGordo@Sector#9648102/02/03; 18:15:41

"In a world of universal deceit...speaking the truth becomes a revolutionary act". George Orwell --1984.

Thats a great quote, thats a keeper.

Bush has lost it with regard to spending. He is going to completely
blow up the budget. Its going to grow like NEVER before.
Time to own gold and silver for sure.

mikalAlleged "inner circle" defector fingers Saddam Hussein#9648202/02/03; 18:30:45,5478,5921220%5E663,00.html

If true, this should play into the hands of war hawks, and further support gold investent.
Saddam's bodyguard warns of secret arsenal
02feb03 -Excerpts:
"Saddam Hussein's senior bodyguard has fled with details of Iraq's secret arsenal.
His revelations have supported US President George W. Bush's claim there is enough evidence from UN inspectors to justify going to war.
Abu Hamdi Mahmoud has provided Israeli intelligence with a list of sites that the inspectors have not visited.
They include:
AN underground chemical weapons facility at the southern end of the Jadray Peninsula in Baghdad;
A SCUD assembly area near Ramadi. The missiles come from North Korea;
TWO underground bunkers in Iraq's Western Desert. These contain biological weapons.
William Tierney, a former UN weapons inspector who has continued to gather information on Saddam's arsenal, said Mahmoud's information is "the smoking gun".
"Once the inspectors go to where Mahmoud has pointed them, then it's all over for Saddam," Tierney said.
Tierney, who has high-level contacts in Washington that go to the White House, said the information we publish today on Mahmoud's revelations "checks out, absolutely checks out".
Mahmoud was a member of the elite unit that protects Saddam. It is called the Murasiq Qun – the "Inner Circle".
He was known as "The Gatekeeper".
Mahmoud is a muscular Saddam lookalike often photographed standing behind Saddam when he is seated, or to his left when on the move.
Last week, Mahmoud was being debriefed at a high-security base in Israel's Negev Desert.
Ariel Sharon, the country's hard-line prime minister, has only allowed snippets of Mahmoud's sensational claims to be shared with the CIA and MI6.
"Sharon intends to shatter the growing anti-war movement," a source close to Mr Sharon said.
"He plans to call all those European leaders who are wavering to let them know how Saddam has continued to fool Hans Blix and his weapons inspectors."
.....Israeli intelligence sources have hinted that the deal with Mahmoud included smuggling his family out of Iraq.
Mossad agents have done this before.
At the start of Saddam's reign of terror, they persuaded an Iraqi pilot to fly his Russian fighter to Israel – after spiriting out his wife and children." End snippits

Trojan@ Cavan Man "Isn't It A Bit Late To Increase NASA Budget ?"#9648302/02/03; 18:37:11,6903,887236,00.html

A sad state of affairs.
Dollar BillAristotle#9648402/02/03; 18:43:42

This doesnt top the laughable article you mentioned below, but this report from the fed's finger in the dike reporter
is the best I ran into today.

"Last week the Federal Reserve released its triennial Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), the most detailed report card on the state of the household sector's balance sheet and income statement currently available. There's no reason to equivocate on the general conclusion: the enduring hysteria that the household sector is over-levered and that this will inevitably be the catalyst for a collapse in spending is an enduring myth. Every cohort of the income distribution, every cohort of the age distribution, and every cohort of the net worth distribution have seen their debt burden (level of loan payments to income) fall in response to rallying interest rate markets and rising incomes. Whether rich or poor, old or young, your debt service burden is highly likely to be lower today than it was in the late 1990s, and there's a good chance it's the lowest it has been since the late 1980s, at least. What's more, leverage ratios (level of debt to assets) are falling just like the debt service burden. In aggregate, the household sector's debt as a proportion of assets is the lowest it has been since at least the late 1980s."

ElGordoJapan plans to sell Yen in a "massive" way!#9648502/02/03; 18:56:36

Tokyo, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The yen may fall for a third day after Zembei Mizoguchi, vice minister for international affairs, said Japan could sell its currency in a ``massive'' way to avoid ``rapid'' movements.

The yen traded at 119.92 to the dollar at 10:15 a.m. in Tokyo from 119.87 late Friday in New York, when a senior Ministry of Finance official said Japan sold yen for dollars several times from mid-January. The yen is more than 2 yen weaker that the four- month high of 117.47 reached on Jan. 17. The currency was also at 128.99 against the euro, from 129.19.

``There could be massive'' yen selling, Mizoguchi said, adding January's action, when Japan sold 700 billion yen ($5.84 billion), was ``preemptive, to make the market stable.'' The yen gained 12 percent over the past year, eroding earnings of exporters such as Canon Inc., which makes three-quarters of its revenue abroad.

``Japan is determined not to let the yen rise,'' said Motoshi Imura, foreign exchange manager at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. ``Selling the yen is a lot easier than buying it.'' The yen may fall to 120.50 against the dollar today, he said.

The dollar may fall against the euro.
This should cause a yen for more gold!

TrojanNice Start For Gold Tonight...#9648602/02/03; 19:04:07

Spot touches $370. Looking good so far. Go Gold.
21mabry(No Subject)#9648702/02/03; 19:14:48

custard pie

mr gresham a plus for catching the esoteric zepplin i blatantly ripped black blade got my natural gas bill on a budget payment system,my monthly bill went up 35 called that one
Daniel Druffsector#9648802/02/03; 19:43:29

Should we dismiss the recent comments of Mr. Frank Veneroso?

Perhaps Mr. Howe is incorrect when he speaks of Mr. Veneroso's updated analysis as containing "three new points worthy of mention."

Mr. Howe writes:

"More on Gold Derivatives. Criticism of my December 4 commentary in The Gartman Letter produced at least one beneficial result: online publication of an updated analysis by Frank Veneroso et al., Gold Derivatives, Gold Lending, Official Management of the Gold Price and the Current State of the Gold Market, May 17, 2002 (; also While this new piece makes no fundamental change in his methodology or estimate of total gold lending by the central banks (i.e., the total short physical position), it does contain three new points worthy of mention.

First, as the title suggests, Mr. Veneroso publicly opines for the first time that the central banks have been deliberately manipulating gold prices. Heretofore, he has confined his analysis to objective estimates of the size of the total short physical position.

Second, he suggests that while aggregate short positions -- particularly those of gold producers -- in the futures and forward markets may have been substantially reduced, aggregate gold loans by central banks have not. Indeed, they have continued to grow, and cannot be reduced as long as physical demand for fabrication and bar hoarding exceeds new mine supply, scrap recovery and official sales. Accordingly, any reduction in aggregate short positions in the futures and forward markets has resulted from intervention by the official sector, which, as he puts it, 'has quietly taken the gold shorts from private speculators and producers and transferred them to their books. In other words, the official sector has intervened to prevent an explosive gold derivative crisis.'

Third, he reports from contacts in the hedge fund industry, 'a growing belief that the gold market is being managed by the official sector and that this management will at some point fail.' This perception in itself constitutes a 'challenge' to the central banks, and citing recent comments from the Bundesbank about its willingness to consider selling more gold, Mr. Veneroso foresees the possibility of 'further official statements or actions that might be construed as part of an attempt to manage the gold price.' He adds: 'One or more of these statements or actions may be so extreme as to shock the market.'"


I would really appreciate your thoughts on what "statements" or "actions" we might anticipate...or should we dismiss the entire notion?

Thank you

Cavan ManMore good news from Defense#9648902/02/03; 19:46:24

US military will reinforce Korea
From Roland Watson in Washington

THE Pentagon is poised to increase its forces in the Far East amid American fears that North Korea is within weeks of producing nuclear weapons.
The build-up could include nearly three dozen bombers and an aircraft carrier, sent as a warning to Kim Jong Il, the North Korean dictator, not to exploit Washington's focus on the Gulf.

The request for reinforcements, made by the Commander of US Forces in the Pacific, Admiral Thomas Fargo, highlights the delicate balance the Pentagon is facing as it confronts a possible war in Iraq and events unfolding on the Korean Peninsula.

Black BladeEconomic fallout of war rife with ifs#9649002/02/03; 19:59:33

Gas restrictions, diving stocks, electricity curbs all possible


Washington --- As the Pentagon gathers forces in and near the Persian Gulf for a potential military confrontation with Iraq, policy-makers and experts in Washington are shifting their focus to the war's possible economic consequences. In the worst-case war scenario, Americans could face more unemployment, a tumble of stock exchanges, long gas lines and restrictions on electricity use. If it is a quick victory, economists and analysts believe the impact would be minimal and that oil production from both a new Iraq and other countries could eventually bring oil prices down and stimulate the world economy. Based on two congressional studies, economist William Nordhaus at Yale University estimates the war could cost the United States from $100 billion to $2 trillion and cause global recession.

Analysts at CSIS predict in the worst case, Iraqi oil production could stop for the remainder of 2003. Oil prices would jump to $80 per barrel and then fall back to $40 a barrel by the end of 2004 --- still substantially above the prewar level. The result would be a U.S. oil shortage, requiring voluntary rationing in the short term. Steps taken during the oil shortages of the 1970s are among the possible schemes for dealing with a new shortfall, including: alternating days of gasoline purchases based on odd/even license plate numbers; limiting gas purchases to 8 gallons; restricting heat and electricity consumption; banning illuminated outdoor advertisements; and encouraging the use of mass transportation. Beyond oil prices and supplies, a prolonged war could adversely affect the economy by driving down the stock market and inhibiting consumer spending. The unemployment rate could initially rise to near 7.5 percent and remain above 7 percent at the end of 2004, according to CSIS.

Black Blade: Even lower oil prices may not help much as the US remains mired in a deepening recession and buried under crushing debt. Either way it goes it should prove to get "interesting".

Paper Avalanche@21mabry#9649102/02/03; 20:03:05

Clink!Paper Avalanche#9649202/02/03; 20:12:22

picky,picky,picky !

Altho i do have to agree. But heck, having lived in France for 13 years (and yes, Belgian, I comprehend exactly where your 'creative' English comes from !) I'm ready to put up with most things.

Clink!Paper Avalanche#9649302/02/03; 20:13:51

OK, I'm in awe. How did you avoid the carriage returns ?!
slingshotClink#9649402/02/03; 20:31:42

Carriage Problems

Set the horse free.


21mabrySentence Structure#9649502/02/03; 20:53:23

Message, recieved.Will try to do better job.
Black BladeSpot Just Jumped The Fence Again#9649602/02/03; 21:08:05

Spot pierced $370 again. Should be interesting if it can hold this week. BTW, there's no "war premium" as it's "already factored into the price". Hell, if the primates on Wall Street can get away with that excuse why not everyone else.

- Black Blade

Trojan@ Black Blade The US Dollar#9649702/02/03; 21:20:06

I also note that the US Dollar is rising again. It looks like it might go over Parity again with the Euro.

Does it's rise have something to do with BOJ's intervention in the Yen.

Thanks for any thoughts that you can offer me on this issue.

sector@ Daniel Druff About Frank Veneroso's views...#9649802/02/03; 21:36:08

...on possible shocking Fed actions.

We all draw the future.

I don't know what Mr. Veneroso was referring to in his view of potential shocking Fed moves.

I DO know what is happening today in the gold and Major Currency Dollar Index trading price patterns. And I believe the patterns tell us useful information.

A former colleague who once worked as a noted laser physicist at Sandia Labs, was fond of asking "What is the data teaching us?" I had trouble imagining data teaching, but I came around to his point after some time. Hidden processes can only be seen through the data trail they leave. The Fed's gold policy machine is shrouded in secrecy.

The gold data trail suggests that the gold price is being ramped upwards as the MCDI is being ramped straight lines from Dec 3rd 2002.

The Fed has been manipulating gold since the early 1990s but in earnest since 1996...however, at a terrible cost in bullion lost.

The Fed is doing this either directly with Treasury or indirectly with bullion bank acolytes. Is there a secondary future plan [The one Veneroso alludes to]? There is probably some gold related Fed policy in the works.

That policy will allow the Fed to benefit [In their fiat producing mandate] by a rising gold price. Exactly what it is, I don't know. But getting any more specific that that is gilding the lily as a prudent spectator will get the message and move to gold and especially its shares as soon as possible.

Contrary the Sir miner49er, the market cap of the HUI is about equal to the running gross of Spiderman and ANY interest from the average investor will run the shares vertical. This ignores the bundle of cash [$50 Million plus] sitting on the 'Buy" buttons of the major gold mutual funds and the 300 plus tonnes of hedger buying that must break soon in their contract closure efforts. So the shares will double very soon even as the gold price keeps a steady ramp up.

Another gold standard? With a fixed gold price? No.

The Fed can't hold the gold price now. An edict for $400 per ounce...or "N" hundred dollars per ounce won't get them anything but more lost gold.

I currently view the Western banks as having to sell their gold to hold its price down in an effort to support their weak currencies and unsustainable economic policies brought forth by profligate legislators. They have finally acknowledged by the linear move since Dec 3rd, that this absurd, one-way policy can't go on any longer.

Further, these august men have also concluded that the only force that can keep them from losing more of their precious central bank gold is a higher price for gold. The price sufficient to obviate the continued sale of gold is that price that draws out hoarded gold from sources OTHER than central banks.

The Fed will put in place a policy that gives the impression that the dollar is somehow getting stronger from a rising gold price.

Possibly, Mr. Veneroso simply intended to convey that the Fed had accepted a very high future gold price. He will be proven correct when people are shocked by the level.

1340cc21 mabry#9649902/02/03; 21:41:03

With us old farts you have to speak very loud and plain. We are deef in one ear and blind in the other! Or something like that.
TopazAll ......'s are created equal!#9650002/02/03; 22:09:29

If media coverage was the benchmark for equality, the family and friends of 7 school children who perished in the Canadian Skifields this past weekend can feel poorly done by.
So too the Yen which has been copping the onslaught of America's newest and most successful recent export, Deflation.

Deepest sympathies one and all.

TrojanGold is Really Flying Now. Nearly at $372.00#9650102/02/03; 22:15:07

CytekWho says inflations dead#9650202/02/03; 22:29:24[s8822875]&disp=P

It broke the 20 year downtrend line.
Topaz@sector.#9650302/02/03; 22:34:15

It's the DOW! mate.
Everything is directed at reinflating the Dow.
Don't be surprised to see $370 holding 'till late May (maybe March??) and a DI of 70 or 80.... they ran the same scam in May '02 ...all to pump up 2Q earnings.
They'll ruin the Dollar before they'll ruin the Dow imo and PoG will do their bidding.

GaleriderCHINA#9650502/02/03; 22:36:18

Have read the news and views (USA GOLD) I just received today and interested in the the possible trouble the Chinese banks are in where they only allow 10% withdrawal of a person's savings at any one time......this is a country with a large population that is feeling trouble in all areas. Another commodity that survives the times along with gold, is grains. Right now the dust storms from the dust bowls of dust bowls (GOBI) are swirling again. The article says 40% of China is now desert. Anyone else come across this article? Can you just imagine the future price of basic grains if this gets worse? If the percieved notion is going around certain cricles that US and Britain are going to war for Oil, can you imagine what a large population might do if they're running out of food? Was at the neighborhood park last week burning all the Japanese New Year's good luck charms to appease the heavens for a good year. Queried the locals about investments. The young? NTT and China investments. The old? Yen and gold. The older folk where very surprised when I told them how much of my investments where in the solid stuff. They were surprised that a younger person would be into the hard stuff. They said they were going to get more. They don't care who gets elected as finance minister, inflation/deflation? They don't care.
GenooSpot + $4.00#9650602/02/03; 22:41:47

I guess somebody did notice...that's what happens you get so involved reading the posts that you forget to hit the refresh key!
Gandalf the WhiteATTENTION the FOUR "fortunate or skilled" POG CONTEST WINNERS !!! #9650702/02/03; 22:43:58

Please be sure to email your real name and snailmail ADDRESS directly to:
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
ANYWHERE else and it may delay the arrival of the PRIZE !!
Thanks !

Gandalf the WhiteWAY ta JUMP, SPOT !! <;-)#9650802/02/03; 22:52:02

Let's see if you and SPIKE can clear $375. tonight and then take a rest to eat the PAPER AVALANCHE in NY ! That 370 "barrier" was not to bad to clear DOWNUNDER !
DID anyone notice that the chart is so far FOLLOWING the same pattern of last Friday ?

TopazGandy#9650902/02/03; 23:12:02

Methinks it's NY access trading...lately the Kitco Spot chart (when it's up) has been quite jumpy in the Sydney sector and would indicate a lot more trading than lil 'ol Oz could muster.
Gandalf the WhiteSir Topaz's observation !#9651002/02/03; 23:22:35

Ay ! I have noted the HEAVY Volume on the Lycos under the symbol GC3J which is the April '03 COMEX Contract !
MUCH more action that normal !
"THINGS are not the same anymore, Toto !"

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ElGordoKirkuk- The mad dash for over 10 Billion Barrels of OIL#9651202/02/03; 23:50:59

However, in the short and long run Baghdad may not be the city of greatest unpredictability in any US campaign. One of the potentially hottest spots could be the northern oil-rich and historically controversial city of Kirkuk. Not only might this city witness a mad dash on the part of the Turks, the Americans and the Kurds, it could also face internal clashes as ethnic groups take the chance to settle old scores. This chaos could provide an opportune pretext for neighboring Turkey to step up its involvement, covertly or otherwise.

Part of the interest in Kirkuk is its oil. The city, located in northern Mosul province about 250 kilometers north of Baghdad near the foot of the Zagros Mountains, sits atop more than 10 billion barrels of proven reserves. One of the country's two leading oil sites, the wells at Kirkuk currently produce up to 1 million barrels a day.
The US, Turkey, Kurds and Arabs want to control this
ancient city known as the Kurdish Jerusalem. It sits on over
10 Billion barrels of oil. Get ready to rumble.

Black Blade"Barbarous Relic Files" - Sack of Gold Donated to 'Yellow Coins' Appeal #965132/3/03; 00:36:48


PARIS (Reuters) - An anonymous donor took France's annual "yellow coins" hospital appeal literally and donated a sack full of gold. The man handed over 279 gold coins worth an estimated 15,000 euros ($16,000) at the Porte Doree (Golden Door) post office branch in Paris, a postal spokeswoman said on Thursday without giving any more details of the mystery benefactor. Most of the coins were 20 franc Napoleon III pieces named after the 19th-century emperor of France. Now popular collectors' items, some of these coins can fetch more than 100 euros apiece.

Black Blade: Must be quite an insult to receive "barbarous relics". Hmmm…

Black BladeEuropeans Want Out of Space Program#965142/3/03; 00:41:44

There's discussion in the media by Euro commentators who wish to pull the plug on their contribution to the Intl. Space Station. How odd.

- Black Blade

ElGordoA whole lotta bombin goin on#965152/3/03; 00:57:47

This past weekend a bomb at a bank in Lagos Nigeria killed
about 40 people. The police reported it as a possible robbery
attempt. Its probably muslim terrorism.

The fighting in Ivory Coast involves fighting between the muslim north and the christian south. Muslim attacks are picking up.

A bomb just went off a few hours ago at police headquarters
in Jakarta,Indonesia.

Now the BBC is reporting a bombing at the Pakistani State Oil
headquarters in Karachi.

Is al Qaeda starting a new offensive?

MnDan(No Subject)#965162/3/03; 00:59:15

Mr. Warner. It's my hope that the Oregon Trail never grows over with weeds. Dan
BelgianControlled paper-contract-gold.....#965172/3/03; 01:04:31

Less and less contract-gold traders are lured into the game with the "down-spiral" of POG ending at the 253$/oz-bottom in 1999. That down-spiral has been feeding on its own with more new contracts upon the old ones and roll-overs. All this with an absolute minimum of Physical Gold involved.

This POG-down spiral ended with a 2 year bottoming ('99-'01)
Now we have to spiral-up, but Physical Gold is needed, now, to dampen the speed of unwinding previous running contracts and avoiding new calls with physical delivery.

LBMA (visible) contract-volume is on the decline and is most probably evidence that Available Gold is extremely scarce, for further, massive, contract-plays.

Contract-gold is losing its price-impact, because it isn't needed any further, now that the 2 competing currencies ($/€) silently agreed on their evolving exchange rate.

Now it is becoming more "Physical"-time. Those who laid the trap for a major default are in control of the trap-timing.

Since the paper-gold-contract market is so huge and took a long time of maneuvering by the "dominator" to get all the leverage-tools on his side.

IMVHO and FWIW, the main purpose is (was) to engineer such an environment into the contract-positions, that an Explosive, POG-Gapping, would resort a maximum of surprise force, accompagned with major defaulting and PANIC.
Such a possible move must have the the characteristic that it can be detonated at the exact appropiate moment. For instance, when the dollar is laying his hands, succesfully, on Arabian oil and in the capacity of prolonging its timeline !?

Short : Kill the dollar with an irreversable POG-spike, let the euro rise in exchange rate against the dollar and add at the same time the announcement of oil for euro. Sort of Big Bang !?

FWIW ! Thoughts ?

ElGordoPlatinum at $685!#965182/3/03; 01:06:24

What a run.
Black BladeGold Funds Dump Hedgers#965192/3/03; 01:09:05


To improve the poor longer-term returns, Mr. Holmes says he has changed the investment style of the funds since becoming a co-manager a year and a half ago. He says he has reduced the funds' exposure to shares of South African producers, which were battered by devaluations of the country's currency. At the same time, he has largely steered clear of certain big gold producers, such as Canada's Barrick Gold Corp. and Placer Dome Inc. Their share-price gains have greatly lagged behind smaller rivals' due partly to concerns about Barrick's and Placer's practice of hedging against gold's price movements. What does the future hold? The gold rally "has legs," Mr. Holmes argues, partly because after years of skimpy industry funding for exploration of new gold mines, the gold market has little new supply to keep up with demand.

Black Blade: I notice that the Funds are dumping mega-hedgers across the board.

WaveriderJapan wants out of Space Program too...#965212/3/03; 01:55:39

I see another news report where the executive director of Japan's National Space Development Agency said there's likely to be a serious impact on Japan's involvement in the international space station...odd indeed!
ElGordoTOCOM Gold up - Platinum streaks to new highs#965222/3/03; 02:01:12

TOCOM gold jumps on yen, platinum hits 12-yr high

Monday February 3, 2:49 am ET

TOKYO, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures bounded to new
eight-year highs on Monday as the yen buckled against the dollar
and the threat of war in Iraq kept bullion on investors' minds.
Platinum contracts (0#JPL:) scaled peaks not seen in over 12
years, finishing limit-up as speculators continued to pour money
into the white metal in the face of bullish fundamentals.

The dollar hit a six-week high against the yen on a report
that Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi had decided to
appoint a supporter of inflation targeting as Bank of Japan

Traders said that triggered a burst of gold buying, with few
players willing to go short as Washington prepares to take its
case against Baghdad to the U.N. Security Council.
"We're seeing some fresh buying from funds and individual
speculators," said a dealer with one of Japan's big trading
houses. [Truncated for copyright concerns]

TrojanVenezuela Oil Strike Over#965232/3/03; 03:13:41

Oil should go down and maybe the US Dollar will rise.

I guess War with Iraq is closer now.

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Cavan Man"We've only just begun..."#965262/3/03; 07:44:40

"It's deja vu all over again"

Washington, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush proposed that Congress limit growth in federal spending to 4 percent in each of the next two years in a $2.23 trillion U.S. budget for 2004 that would post a record $307 billion deficit.
PH in LABig Bang>#965272/3/03; 07:51:11


My thoughts were running in the same direction as yours this morning:

The manipulation of the POG has become so pronounced lately that anyone can see it at a glance. We, here around this discussion table, have laid out the fundamentals that pretty well explain what must be happening. Yet the financial press keeps trumpeting their "war worries" and "buy the rumor, sell the fact" explanations. Since the whole system relies on keeping investors in the dark, it strikes me, also, that a very "serviceable" surprise would be the breakaway move in POG coinciding with the outbreak of war. Such an event would shock the maximum number of investors and give the maximum advantage to the manipulators.

Just a thought.

ElGordoThe index actually FELL#965282/3/03; 09:02:07

Washington, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. manufacturing expanded for a third straight month in January as new orders and production kept growing, suggesting a factory recovery is under way, an industry report showed.

The Institute for Supply Management's factory index was 53.9 last month compared with 55.2 in December. The index has been higher than 50, signaling improving business conditions, since November. Production and orders have expanded for five months.
Headline for this news is about fantastic growth in manuf
sector! The index actually fell from 55.2 in Dec to 53.9 in Jan.
Talk about spin. This is Orwellian for sure. Newspeak and newthink.

ElGordoOPEC considers production cut#965292/3/03; 09:06:43

Doha, Qatar, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC, which supplies one- third of the world's oil, will ``probably'' reduce output in the second quarter to prevent a drop in prices as demand slows, the group's president said.

``In the second quarter OPEC will face a difficult task,'' said Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, who is also Qatar's oil minister, in an interview. ``We will probably have to reduce supply. The next decision we face is more likely to be a cut than an increase.''

J-BullionContest#965302/3/03; 09:17:07

I just checked the website, and can't believe I won the pricing contest! I've never won anything in my whole life. This must be a sign. Anyway, congratulations to the other winners, and Thanks for the great website and contest!
Au BrotherRE: The index actually FELL#965312/3/03; 09:27:00

And was below analyst expectations of 54.0 (of course that little tidbit is buried in the 5th paragraph of the Bloomberg Article).

Title of Article: Manufacturing in US Expands for Third Straight Month, Suggests Recovery

More Accurate Title: ISM Index drops, Suggests Growth in Manufacturing is Stalling

sectorYen Falls After Official Says Japan Weighing `Massive' Sales#965322/3/03; 09:59:08

02/03 06:30

By David Wigan

London, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell against the dollar after Zembei Mizoguchi, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, said the government was weighing ``massive'' sales of the currency to curb its rise.

The yen fell to 120.43 to the dollar at 11:19 a.m. in London, from 119.93 late Friday. Against the euro the Japanese currency was at 129.23, compared with 128.72 late Friday.

``There could be massive'' yen sales, Mizoguchi said. Japan disposed of 700 billion yen ($5.84 billion) in January, an unidentified Ministry of Finance official said on Friday. The sale was ``preemptive, to make the market stable,'' he said.

The yen has risen about 12 percent against the dollar in the past year, fueling concern that its advance will hurt companies such as Canon Inc., which earns three-quarters of its revenue outside Japan.

January's yen sales were the first since June, when Japan spent 4 trillion yen over seven days to block its advance. One difference between this year and last was that this time the authorities didn't announce their intentions.

``This unannounced action to sell the yen seems to be a change of strategy by the ministry and that makes everyone nervous,'' said Motoshi Imura, foreign exchange manager at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. The yen could fall to 122 against the dollar in the next couple of weeks, he said.

In other trading, the dollar was at 1.0714 against the euro, compared with 1.0731. Against the pound it traded at 1.6391, compared with 1.6448. The dollar rose amid speculation that signs of stronger growth will boost U.S. stocks, increasing demand for the currency to buy them. U.S. stock futures gained.


The yen pared some of its losses after Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi denied a Kyodo News report that Nobuyuki Nakahara, who favors pumping more money into the economy, will be the next Bank of Japan governor.

The yen fell as low as 120.91 to the dollar on Kyodo's report, before Koizumi called it ``incorrect.'' Nakahara has advocated an inflation target to fight almost five years of falling prices and has urged the central bank to print more money and buy foreign bonds to increase the money supply. Masaru Hayami's term as head of the central bank ends March 19.

``The Kyodo report sent the yen tumbling and Koizumi's denial just sent it back up,'' said Minoru Shioiri, foreign exchange manager at Mitsubishi Securities.

Nakahara's appointment to head the central bank ``would be extremely negative for the yen,'' said Marshall Gittler, foreign exchange strategist in Tokyo at Deutsche Bank AG, the third- largest trader in the $1.2-trillion-a-day currency market.
"Massive Sales" of yen mean massive purchases of gold.

Golfer33OPEC et perception#965332/3/03; 10:16:19

The Factory orders release works fine as long as the "What you perceive is believed" theory works. When that fails and the truth comes out, nothing is creditable and all believability will be shattered. But what are the options...
As far as OPEC, "probably" reducing output, I believe it's strictly political. Iraq's situation will mollify the supply/demand situation. But, tack on the Korean situation, the threat of sabotage on oil shipments, and the potential unanticipated conflict needs of the military and it looks like the Bush team might be looking at a bag of worms if they don't get to the Iraq oil fields before their blown up. With possession being nine tenths of the law, China and others might have some of their own designs. Interesting times ahead.

ElGordoLawyer gives himself a pay raise!#965342/3/03; 10:18:04

New York, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Ex-Tyco International Ltd. General Counsel Mark Belnick was charged with grand larceny for taking a $12 million bonus that wasn't approved by Tyco's board, the Manhattan district attorney said.

Belnick is accused of receiving $2 million in cash and 200,000 shares of Tyco stock that he knew weren't authorized, Manhattan District Attorney Robert Morgenthau said. Belnick was also cited in the new indictment on fraud charges that say he, former Chief Executive Officer Dennis Kozlowski and former Chief Financial Officer Mark Swartz knowingly made false representations about Tyco's financial condition.

``The move from softer ball to hardball is to add pressure to gain leverage,'' former prosecutor Jacob S. Frenkel said. ``The D.A. is looking at Belnick as a ticket to bigger fish at Tyco.''

The new charges against Belnick are the latest result of the district attorney's investigation into Tyco and its former executives, which has used evidence turned up in the company's own internal probe.

Belnick, who was indicted in September for falsifying business records, faces up to 25 years if convicted of the grand larceny charge.

ElGordoMore IPO dealings come to light#965352/3/03; 10:28:01

The firm's suspension of Quattrone may be an effort by Credit Suisse Chief Executive John Mack to distance the bank from Quattrone after the disclosure last week of e-mails instructing employees to ``edit'' their files related to IPOs. Quattrone may have known the firm's IPO practices were being probed by regulators at the time.

``New information raised questions about whether Mr. Quattrone acted appropriately in December 2000 when he sent that e- mail,'' the company said in a statement.

Quattrone was told last month that he faces civil charges stemming from an investigation by the National Association of Securities Dealers into claims of conflict of interests that harmed investors during the 1990s stock boom.
Quattrone joined CSFB from Deutsche Bank AG in 1998, negotiating an agreement in which he kept half of his division's revenue -- after certain costs -- to mete out to his staff. In November 2001, Chief Executive Officer John Mack renegotiated the agreement so that Quattrone's compensation was tied to the firm's profits instead.

Quattrone is the son of a Philadelphia garment maker. He went to the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School in that city. In 1979 he joined Morgan Stanley's leveraged leasing group as a financial analyst in New York, working under Carter McClelland, now president of Banc of America Securities. At McClelland's urging, Quattrone later moved west, earning an M.B.A. at Stanford University in Palo Alto.

ElGordo5000 more jobs lost#965362/3/03; 10:30:41

Clinton, Mississippi, Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- WorldCom Inc., the telephone company seeking to emerge from the biggest bankruptcy, plans to cut 5,000 jobs, or 8.3 percent of its workforce, to help reduce $2.5 billion of annual costs.

The positions to be eliminated are mainly corporate and administrative, WorldCom said in a statement distributed by PR Newswire. The last major round of job cuts from Clinton, Mississippi-based WorldCom, which has 60,000 employees, came in June, when the company said it would slash 17,000 positions.

KnallgoldGold coins=officially minted?#965372/3/03; 10:38:01

I'm in heated discussion with the postal system about a declaration of Gold coins for customs.There is the term "stateminted Goldcoin" here in Switzerlands VAT law-to my knowledge Goldcoins are all officially minted.

With the older ones its pretty clear from the historic Goldlink.The newer pieces,even the bullion coins have all an official mark on it.

Is anyone aware of Goldcoins which are not staeminted,like with the Silverrounds?If yes,it would still go under bullion IMHO.

Thanks in advance.

ElGordoGerman retail sales slump#965382/3/03; 10:38:05

Monday, 3 February, 2003, 10:48 GMT
German shoppers stop spending

Chancellor Schroeder's economic woes are mounting

German retail sales fell last year for the first time since 1997, as recession-hit consumers reined in spending.

For 2002 as a whole, retail sales declined by 2.3%, their worst performance since records began two decades ago.

Especially gloomy are month-by-month figures, which show an apparent slowing of sales during the year, contradicting the impression that Germany may be recovering from its slump of a year ago.

Gandalf the WhiteKEEP JUMPING, SPOT !!!#965392/3/03; 10:46:34

ALMOST to the $372 mark again !
UP UP and OVER !!

Daniel DruffOfficial Sector Market Shock#965402/3/03; 11:06:13

The Possible and The Probable

We are indebted to Mr. Frank Veneroso for sharing his vision.

"Third, he reports from contacts in the hedge fund industry, 'a growing belief that the gold market is being managed by the official sector and that this management will at some point fail.' This perception in itself constitutes a 'challenge' to the central banks, and citing recent comments from the Bundesbank about its willingness to consider selling more gold, Mr. Veneroso foresees the possibility of 'further official statements or actions that might be construed as part of an attempt to manage the gold price.' He adds: 'One or more of these statements or actions may be so extreme as to shock the market.'" CURRENT MPEG COMMENTARY by Mr. Reg Howe

The above paragraph is loaded with insight which should be considered by all serious gold investors.

"...this management will at some point fail."

I assume it will be apparent that the official sector is on the verge of losing control when gold goes through $400

At that point - I'm guessing here - should we expect "actions" and "statements" and what might they be?

I believe there is an exceedingly high likehood that the words, "confiscation" and/or "nationalization" will be bandied about. Recent action in the Gold Mining Share Sector would lend credence to this probability.

THEREFORE, beware of leverage as we blast out of this $370 range. A drop in gold from $400 to $350 overnight, will destroy the leveraged speculator. Keep some powder dry and look for the most depressing news you can imagine. These people who operate within the official sector are not going quietly...after all,who wants to loose their job, not to mention all the perks?

Thank you

Belgian@ PHinLA#965412/3/03; 11:13:18

You and me, feeling some Big Bang coming, makes two...a nice start !
Notice how OPEC is very closely watching the POO and communicating their moves, publicly (ElGordo)! That's new !
Yes, they know that the dollar wants to break (contain) OPEC's, gained, pricing power (post GW-II) ! OPEC's, exposed, self confidence must be based on something...euro-like ?
Pay oil in euro and there will be free flow of low priced crude for all of you !? Sorry for keeping hammering on this "fundamental" probability.

IMVHO and FWIW : If POG goes higher and XAU/HUI doesn't jump up...we have the great "dis-connection" (paper from physical) !!!

Today's hard talk on BBC was with an intello from the Jordanian Royal familly : Some shocking revelations on US-unilateralism from this, seemingly, reliable man of good will.
The M.E. desires, multi-lateral, constructive western help...and not a devastating war. Moderate Arabs offer alternatives. Is it too late ?

Belgian@ Daniel Druff#965422/3/03; 11:26:10

Can you please define Veneroso's "official sector" ? FED ...IMF...ECB...BIS ...? Wich of these official sectors will be "out" of control and wich one(s) will be "in" full control ? TIA.
mikalTOCOM logs record volume#965432/3/03; 11:30:58

Tokyo, February 3, 2003 (Reuters) -Excerpt:
"Japans biggest futures exchange did more business on Monday than on any other day of its half-century existance...."

Traders said to be "speculating" in gold and oil futures. If TOCOM decides to again shut down or change the rules, as they did with platinum a couple years back, these "speculators" will wish they had been "investors".

TopazDaniel.#965442/3/03; 11:32:50

It strikes me as "very curious" the complete lack of margin calls in the mining sector following this runup in PoG.
OK we've seen SOME covering, but the forward sold pos'n of the Majors "should have" wreaked havoc in the Market at this level.
If we give credence to the assumption that US "deep-storage" is now African resources, it doesn't take much imagination to conclude Bullion Bank "deep-storage" is now Gold Miner reserves (those that were "unincumbered" prior to the run-up.)
The next conclusion that can be drawn is that hedged Miners are and will be reduced to "share-croppers" mining BB/CB owned Gold.
...whatsmore, unhedged Miners won't escape this dynamic as National Govt's, realising foreign CB's have leins on (say) 5 Yr's forward production, will move to Nationalise what's left.

Lets watch!

Cavan ManPOG War Premium & Speculation#965452/3/03; 11:44:41

Think! If the US enters a war, the price rises (safe bet I think). If the US doesn't go to war, they'll be no oil bonus and all that militray hardware will remain on the shelf.

We are at a critical juncture in the histroy of western civilization.

Daniel DruffBelgian#965462/3/03; 11:55:33

Veneroso's Official Sector

Firstly, let me say that I enjoy your input.

Secondly, the suspects you mentioned are certainly movers and shakers within The Central Banks of the world.

Mr. Veneroso mentions, "central banks" and "manipulation" quite forcefully. I'm sure that's what he means but would pass the lance to Mr. Bolser who can certainly give FV a buzz to verify.

Please don't think that I'm bearish in any way regarding gold. There's a position-improving-opportunity coming and we should have a strategy in mind. It will be the Grand Shakeout and will break not only the hearts and minds of many in the gold community but it will devastate the leveraged least that's what I'd do to you people if I were on the other side.

Thank you, Sir.

Daniel DruffTopaz#965472/3/03; 12:14:24

Deep Storage

I agree with you. The great satan of hedgers is ABX who would certainly be bought out by The Treasury?...or would it be the Fed? Whomever, they could fire-up the printing presses and make a fair deal with the share holders. No sweat. They might even buyout all the major gold miners in our country.

I actually think it's a good long as they figure gold is worth $1,200 per ounce, MINIMUM! And they continue to let us hold our private stash just as China is now doing.
Maybe even a new monetary system where goods and services are priced in terms of gold-weight and their fiat would be used for the credit side in some way.

I'd sure like to know who it was that came up with the "Deep Storage" classification for some of our gold reserves. I'll bet they laughed their butts off when that term first came up.

Thank you

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GoldnSilver2002What is this grand shakeout?#965492/3/03; 12:18:44

Hey guys just read your piece on a grand shakeout.I assume you refer to the gold mining stocks?You are right if the stocks dont respond soon,people will swear off them,even some of the hardened gold bugs,especially since they have gone nowhere on golds latest move from 320's to 370's.However i would note that Sinclair among others feels differently.Many feel the stocks will fly as gold approaches 400,if they dont, clearly it is over.Bill Murphy says everyone he talks to cant wait to dump their stocks,then he says we have a long way to go yet.And so we are torn,myself i cant wait to get out and buy more physical.Large caps like kinross,goldcorp etc simply suck.But alas i have no choice but to wait for 400 and see if the promised short squeeze arrives.One has no choice but to hope and trust in Sinclair and Murphy.Of course the cabal is causing its own problem,either the stocks move soon or there will be a mad rush from the stocks into physical.My advice stay away from large caps unless you like losing money will gold goes up.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Why should YOU buy gold? Because no one else will do it FOR you.... but WE can help!#965502/3/03; 12:26:09

gold sovereigns
Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance and credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial asset which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.

Gandalf the WhiteGREAT try, SPOT --- ALMOST made the $372 level again !#965512/3/03; 12:28:08

BUT at least we are above the $370 level and HOLDING WELL !
We shall try for that $375 level when the HK market opens, YES ?

slingshotGandalf the White#965522/3/03; 12:42:59


Just Another day in paradise.

Gold to $375.00 in HK. Maybe they can tack on some more WAR PREMIUM.

Daniel DruffGoldnSilver2002#965532/3/03; 12:51:10

The Grand Shakeout, aka, Market Shock

Let's assume $400 gold will set off a massive short fact, it would be a systemic problem which would challenge the official sector's power. Question: What would you do if you were in their position?
TownCrierGold mining IPO pulled#965542/3/03; 13:07:20§ion=news&news_id=reu-wat264483&date=20030203&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw

One would think that large mining company executives with international connections are in a better position than their would-be investors to know what might be coming down the road. This development, therefore, gives us much food for thought.

WASHINGTON, Feb 3 (Reuters) - South Africa's Gold Fields Ltd. (GFIJ) on Monday pulled plans to offer 26 million ordinary shares in the United States [on the NYSE].

The company did not provide a reason in its withdrawal statement....

Last summer, the second-largest gold producer in South Africa filed to sell the American Depositary Shares after telling U.S. regulators it planned an initial public offering in the United States.

------(from url)-------

WaveriderVIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT#965552/3/03; 13:07:37

Hot off the press...
turkey hunterIndia silver#965562/3/03; 13:23:07

NEW DELHI: India, the largest consumer of silver, is gearing up to start hallmarking of the white precious metal by April.

The need for hallmarking was felt after several complaints to consumers forums by people duped on the quality of the silverware purchased, with some having a shocking zero silver content.

While the national standards body BIS has not undertaken any market survey of the quality of silverware and jewellery sold by retailers, it is aware of some of the complaints being received.

TownCrierGold news#965572/3/03; 13:25:51


Business Standard (Mumbai) February 4, 2003 --

This week is expected to witness major development as Washington takes its case against Baghdad to the UN Security Council. The metal has constantly remained within sight of six-year peaks, its "war premium" intact.

All eyes are now on US Secretary of State Colin Powell's visit to the UN Security Council on Wednesday.

Traders said buying of yen-based gold futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange was dragging the spot price higher.

The dollar jumped more than a yen in the morning on a report Japan's Prime Minister was considering appointing a supporter of inflation targeting as Bank of Japan governor.

That proved yet another plus for gold, which is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation.

------(see url)-------

Supply and demand. As demand escalates and the price rises, how much physical gold will come out of current investors' nest eggs to fill the void? Except as driven by need, how many will eagerly yield up their supply of solid wealth for alternate holdings in what would seem to be obviously inferior paper? No one knows how very high the price may go as sentiment continues to swing in gold's favor as all the world wants what only a few now have.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today and shed your paper for gold while the getting is good.


GoldnSilver2002gold up hui and xau down?#9655802/03/03; 14:22:50

Well you gotta hand it to them.Its a good plan,keep the stocks down so long,that when they do spring everyone jumps ship.Can anyone explain this?What do the hui and xau need 500 gold?I have to admit im befuddled anyone got any good news?
timbervisionCometose#9656102/03/03; 14:34:09

Correction: 1:3 split
Black BladeSpot Jumped The Fence Again#9656202/03/03; 14:59:17

Spot is up to $371.20 in after hours trade. Now that the Lunar New Year celebration is over it is up tp Hong Kong and China to carry the ball.

- Black Blade

Off to the gym!

Hang TuffSherman Skolnick report Part 25#9656302/03/03; 15:05:14

The reason for the breakin at Greenspan's house was to find out how much gold the Federal reserve will have to somehow obtain from Canadian and South American mines to carry out an expected or intended dealing with a financial meltdown. Last part of article at . I have not seen any comments on this.
PizzGoldSilver2002#9656402/03/03; 16:15:02

XAU and HUI rallied from late November to end of December around 30% plus or minus.

This rally pushed them to the top of channels, and we are having what appears to be a normal correction, still within their up channels. We are now at the bottom of the channels and oversold, hourly, daily, but weekly is not as oversold as i'd like to see it, but we can still rally very sharply from this area.

Gold has been acting better than stocks. Last year at this time stocks behaved better than gold for the most part.

It's normal. It's also normal to have fear at the bottom for weak hands to sell, and greed at the tops and hold. If you are concerned now, why weren't you concerned Jan 1, cause that is when technical traders should sell (and most did and that is why we're down now).

If there are scared paper gold holders out there, sell and buy physical and sleep at night, assuming you believe in gold. THE VOLITILITY IS GOING TO GET WORSE, INCLUDING BULLION. If you don't, buy dollars or such and live in everyone elses dreamworld - gee my dollar is still a dollar this week. . . .sheesh.


steadygoldandsilver only because i know u personally.#9656502/03/03; 16:17:35

i disagree. if the stocks dont move soon people will swear off them. nope there are always those who are lured by wall st. people still buying even after 3 down years and will continue to do so. It is not clearly over if the stocks do not move (and what is move) when the pog reaches 400 us fiat federal reserve notes. Murphy bless his heat for his efforts isnt a seer and he doesnt know everyone who holds gold stocks. Hope and trust in yourself rather than murphy and sinclare. that conviction is way better than any trust or hope.
GoldnSilver2002Just pondering physical versus large caps#9656602/03/03; 16:53:17

Well Guys,im well aware the juniors have done well as has for example nevsun.But i am now pondering at which point these large caps will do less than physical itself.As for KInross it was a 3 to 1 reverse split from the merger,dont get fooled by that one.At the end of the day it ended at 3.51(x3)=10.51.When i look at the big caps their current prices seem low.Gold has made a big move through december and january while kinross,goldcorp,bema all linger in my opinion.My quandry isnt the smaller ones(jrs) but rather the big caps.As we know juniors can be more of a gamble'so here is my question.If at some point the physical itself accelerates faster than the stocks then isnt it wiser to jump onto physical during the next correction?I trust physical but have read a litany of scenarios,nationalization of mines,massive shorts and even sinclair who i do trust as a pro says at some point physical will outrun the stocks.Whatever happens these men are not to blame.What im looking for is an opinion on when to jump from big caps to 100 percent physical?In my mind once these stocks roll,im gonna peel into more and more physical.My problem steady as you know,is i travel a lot and cant just lug 100's of oz's through every airport,believe me i had trouble with just one euro(gold and silver)coin they thought was a bomb!So here is the problem for those far wiser than me at what point does one cash in on the big caps and sleep snugly on a bed of physical?By the way i lost ur number ,can we exchange emails again?And also what is the safest way to store all this physical?Im forced into paper for now,or is it trapped lol?But at some point im moving to something a little harder to shall we say manipulate?
R PowellDaniel Druff (96488)#9656702/03/03; 16:54:22

Mr. Veneroso's May 17 2002 analysis

Hello Daniel. Comments today sent me back to your 96488 post of yesterday wherein you commented on an article by Frank Veneroso. You fooled me by calling this a recent analysis. I know, it's a relative term but for the record, this analysis, as noted in your post, is from May 17, 2002.

You pointed out three points made by Mr. Veneroso. The first that his opinion was that there was manipulation in the gold market and this manipulation was being done by the central banks. I've noticed over the years that many influencial analysts, who have to choose their words carefully, have eventually admitted as much. I do not believe too many markets are entirely "free".

The third point is Mr. Veneroso's statement that a market "managed by official sector" will eventually see a failure of this manipulation. I'm always encouraged when I hear the opinion that the market forces of supply and demand will eventually overpower undue influence. Being that this was written eight months ago I wonder if the last two months POG move from about $320 to its present $370 or so would qualify (in Mr. Veneroso's mind) as that failure that he predicted? Perhaps not the entire failure but, at least the beginning of that failure of manipulation?
That's points one and three, more on point two...

R PowellDaniel Druff#9657002/03/03; 17:46:30

Point two

Point two from your assessment of Mr. Veneroso as quoted in 96488...

Second, he suggests that while aggregate short positions -- particularly those of gold producers -- in the futures and forward markets may have been substantially reduced, aggregate gold loans by central banks have not. Indeed, they have continued to grow, and cannot be reduced as long as physical demand for fabrication and bar hoarding exceeds new mine supply, scrap recovery and official sales. Accordingly, any reduction in aggregate short positions in the futures and forward markets has resulted from intervention by the official sector, which, as he puts it, 'has quietly taken the gold shorts from private speculators and producers and transferred them to their books. In other words, the official sector has intervened to prevent an explosive gold derivative crisis.'

(Me) It is stated that aggregate gold loans can not be repaid because there simply isn't enough supply from which to repay. This statement assumes that the real, actual, physical gold left the central banks and is (as sector and many others contend) "gone". What if the gold never left? Maybe it was leased, loaned, sold, encumbered, turned into fiat, etc. but never left the vaults. If so, and the whole scam is a paper trade, could not, then, the whole thing be unwound in fiat settlement? This will raise the POG as much as the paper selling depressed it but, until someone fiqures out how much gold really still exists, the possibility will exist that this paper charade fulfilled a purpose other than dishoarding physical gold. Forget all the paper games! How much PHYSICAL central bank gold was there, in storage, 10 years ago? How much is there now? Forget all the liens and titles, that can all be settled in the fiat account statements. How much physical is really gone???

If this paper short position was then transfered to the futures or forward markets and, knowing that nearly all futures contracts are offset in fiat only (very, very little delivery in comparison to the amount under contract), then does this not confirm or strengthen my supposition that the central bank short position was established mostly on paper? The physical is still safe collecting dust in the vaults but, this again, will by no means let the shorts off the hook. If indeed, even a small portion of the mentioned 5,000 to 16,000 tons shorted is transfered to the futures markets for eventual offset, then POG in at least four figures is (imho) assured. I would guess that some less painful monetary settlement may have been initiated in those particular OTC contracts involving liens on central bank gold holdings but this "supposins" is only a guess. I tend to analysis situations from a trader's point of view. This is occasionally somewhat different than the prevailing opinion but hopefully adds balance to the analysis. Fiat settlement of POG obligations may greatly raise the POG but will not cause any monetary crisis. Debt, poor governance and the very nature of fiat paper money along with years of economic mismanagement will destroy the present system.

Also, it is obvious that some physical has been dishoarded and is "gone" as in "consummed" over the years. This is evident from the simple fact that demand is greater than all production on a yearly basis. This is also true of silver :>)

Sundeck; 17:50:37

China and gold

Writer Barrie Dunstan in todays Australian Financial Review cites the latest FullerMoney newsletter of 31Jan03 which has a long article on China's potential role in the gold market. (Need to be a subscriber to access the article at the link.)

Some points include:

> China's foreign reserves growing rapidly

> yuan will eventually be allowed to float, rather than pegged to US$...will revalue upwards

> this will imply a foreign currency loss for China on its US$ reserves

> implies China will diversify out of US$ reserves into Euro and especially gold

> claims China bought $1B worth of gold in Dec 02 increasing its reserves to 19.3 M oz

> argues China will buy more gold while price is low

> emphasises the tightness in physical supply
and the reluctance of CBs to sell more gold

> other big players are in the market for more gold

> argues that the worlds investors are underweight gold

Very bullish scenario...

Spot currently admiring the view from $373 - perhaps he is wondering what lies over the hill?

Gandalf the WhiteWOWSERS SPIKE ! please wait for SPOT to catch-up !#9657202/03/03; 18:22:51

GREAT JUMPING, SPIKE !!! Hold it here just a little under that $375. "barrier" and let SPOT catch his breath !
TO THE MOON, Alice !

kramrichUS Forces on Alert for Possible Movement Near Korea#9657302/03/03; 18:26:05

Is it getting hotter in here or is it just me.
Cometose@timbervision#9657402/03/03; 18:32:38

Thanks for the heads up .....

I was verging on manic delight when the reality of your message made me again aware of the gravity of the situation with the stocks....

However....I would like to add at this point ,

"Don't Worry , Be Happy......"...I think the springed coil in the Mining Stocks (HUI) is about to unwind ........

sector@ Cometose Kinross [KGC] Up $4.60 Today, 193%#9657502/03/03; 18:41:07

Is it is sign of things to come?

Now that you bring it up--YES.

I mentioned yesterday that the HUI would double. Kinross pretty much doubled. With over 2 million four hundred thousand shares shorted this little shooting star may not be through any time too soon.

All the gold mutual funds sitting on tens of millions of recent inflow dollars, waiting for pog to retrace $30-$40 are themselves now locked out of any big run in Kinross after today's 193% run. The train left. Thy weren't on it. Their funds cannot enjoy that gain. BTW KGC is a very good stock to trade in and out of as its beta is way up there but if you went for coffee, you lost.

It was short covering...just like the coming short covering rally in the HUI. Only this HUI rally won't fall back. Because the gold price isn't going to fall back. The HUI will discount the year end gold price as it will be effected by a depreciating yen, euro and especially dollar.

Today's Kinross action vindicates the policy of buy and hold for the gold shares. One could never know exactly when the short-covering would begin so a buy and hold was the only way to assure a profit. Nimble traders were toasted today as they ordered their mocha lattes.

The crucial fact to appreciate here is that the price of gold is being held in check [On a ramp to $630 by year's end] by official selling. ONLY official selling. They are retreating, trying to conserve bullion.

Others here continue to imagine that bullion that has been swapped, loaned or forward sold is somehow still the property of the central banks. Even though some of the gold still resides in the central banks, it no longer belongs to the central banks that loaned it. it cannot be somehow confiscated back into the ownership of the central banks. It's gone to them as a useful asset in the gold war.

Their gold is called a "Receivable" on the central bank books. In reality it is a conditional receivable. The condition is that the world's gold price remains close to the original contract price, which it hasn't and that their counter parties who sold the gold into the world's markets can get it back.

So the price of gold is headed up as the rush to redeem gold shorts begins and the shares are set to bang upwards like Kinross did today.

Send out for your Starbucks.

WaveriderPizz #9657602/03/03; 18:47:06

I know that Mikal also made that same point about volatility last summer - that it would get worse, and I made a mental note to remember that - then when it happens it's not a suprise. You've reiterated it, and it was also stated at the Vancouver Gold conference. What I'm not entirely clear on is WHY? Why the big swings (and bigger ones in the future)? Is it the technical traders, the cabal manipulation, the shorts? A combination of factors? Do you know if these big swings occured back in the 70s and early 80s? Appreciate your thoughts. TIA, and Cheers,

Actually I think Sector just answered part of my question.

GoldnSilver2002Kinross 3 to 1 reverse split as a result of the merger#9657702/03/03; 18:52:00

Actually kinross shareholders lost value today.It was a 3 to 1 reverse split based on predetermined agreements in the merger.So kinross finished the day at 10.51 divided by three.In other words at the end of the day Kinross shareholders held one third as many stocks ie 3000 on friday was 1000 today.People might have sold from all the excitement only to find they sold at 3.51.Nothing to get excited about unless you wanted to buy more.Kinross was down 4 percent on the news,check the reverse split.Nevsun was better up over 9 percent.For my money gimme physical ,there are no 3 to 1 reverse splits.
elevator guy@PH in LA#9657802/03/03; 18:53:00

<snip>PH in LA (2/3/03; 07:51:11MT - msg#: 96527)

Since the whole system relies on keeping investors in the dark,

HA! Thats it! Thats a riot! Funniest thing I've heard in a quite a while, and so true! Well said...

it strikes me, also, that a very "serviceable" surprise would be the breakaway move in POG coinciding with the outbreak of war. Such an event would shock the maximum number of investors and give the maximum advantage to the manipulators.

Do you think they will let the paper price rise so that small investors will get on the train, while they are going short? "Maximum advantage" could mean playing off the hysterical tendency of the public to buy anything that looks like its going up, if I catch your drift right.

I have a feeling that the major use of the Comex paper gold market is not to shake dollars out of small investors. (Although that might be a side benefit)

It seems that its main purpose is to massage public perception about the relative worth of the US Dollar. If ESF funds are thrown into the trading floor to keep the price down, its a small loss if those contracts later need a cash settlement, when compared to the big picture of USD hedgemony, and oil-for-dollars trade.

CytekCheck this TOCOM Report out#9657902/03/03; 18:57:34

TOCOM logs record volume as war drums get louder
Monday February 3, 4:00 am ET

TOKYO, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Japan's biggest commodity futures exchange did more business on Monday than on any other day of its half-century existence as darkening war clouds over Iraq sent speculators rushing to deal in oil and precious metals.

Turnover of all contracts on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange came to a staggering 693,009 lots, well up from a previous record of 612,537 lots logged on December 19.

The shopping spree came as Washington prepared to make its case against Baghdad to the United Nations Security Council -- an event many players see as a key step on the road to war in the Gulf.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell visits the Security Council on Wednesday to offer what Washington says is proof Iraq has not disarmed.

Speculators have flocked to gold, known traditionally as a safe haven in times of trouble. They have also poured money into yen-based kerosene and gasoline contracts, mindful of the threat war could pose to world oil supplies.

Gold (0#JAU:) was the hottest item on TOCOM on Monday, with turnover clocking in at 254,831 lots or 254.8 tonnes as investors sent the benchmark December contract (JAUZ3) leaping to new eight-year highs.

R PowellNo confiscation needed#9658002/03/03; 19:15:22

Sector, my friend, are we starting to agree?

Your words.....

Others here continue to imagine that bullion that has been swapped, loaned or forward sold is somehow still the property of the central banks. Even though some of the gold still resides in the central banks, it no longer belongs to the central banks that loaned it. it cannot be somehow confiscated back into the ownership of the central banks. It's gone to them as a useful asset in the gold war.

I never said that gold was still the property of the central banks. I did say that whether leased, sold, under liens of any kind that the PHYSICAL was still there so, whatever monetary obligations do exist can be settled as just that- monetary obligations, pluses and minuses on balance sheets. Is most of the physical still safely stored where it always was? I believe so but would love to see the total central bank holdings for today and ten years ago. But these figures will be distorted as some is, as you correctly say, leased, reclassified, or otherwise encumbered. It wouldn't surprise me if a condition of the original leases was that the physical was NOT to be moved. The banks do not need to confiscate back anything. The only thing needful (owed) to the central banks is to either release or repay the lease but the loan was never physical metal, just silly paper games. Offsetting those leases owed by bullion banks and others to the central banks will be costly! Just because it is not physical does NOT mean it will not cost them some serious cash. Those that did not somehow hedge will lose bigtime. Either way, I've no sympathy for them and either way, POG with some real short covering behind it will, perhaps, amaze even the staunchest goldbugs among us. Then perhaps some billions of dollars in trend following investors as a sort of afterburner effect and there we'll be- "to da moon".
Keep up the great GATA work!

sectorWellll...It was too good to be true about Kinross#9658102/03/03; 19:16:23

I stand corrected on ther 3 for 1 share consolidation.

I don't own any KGC .
SilverHoardSilver Spike ???#9658202/03/03; 19:23:06

I am just as excited as everyone over the steady rise in POG. The Gold/Silver ratio continues to rise. May I get an estimate on the silver situation. I have seen comments here saying as "joe sixpak" sees the gold price rise, he would invest in silver. Thank you "Silver get you some"
ElGordoSome technical analysts see markets turning down hard#9658302/03/03; 19:25:52

What I call the Down-the-Dow-Staircase average will suffer 1,000-point daily losses -- in coming weeks, months and years. A decade of 40x price-earnings multiples for America's "best" companies does not end with mere slippage to 7,000 Dow, or 6,000 Dow, or 5,000 Dow.

A decade of low interest rates does not justify multiplying a company's earnings by 40 or 50, then delivering a fat check to a broker in return for a certificate, or an electronic confirmation. The Dow's 30 companies, with a market worth of $2.5 trillion, represent 25 percent of the $10 trillion market of U.S. stocks. Just 25 percent. Yet the influence of this headline index grows daily, in good times and bad.

The scandal is that unlike most reliable equity indexes, the Dow is a price-weighted index influenced in large part by the biggest-number stocks in the gauge. That means stocks with high dollar prices - and there are two I have in mind -- wield enormous influence on both the index itself and investors across the globe who digest the incessant Dow headlines. When these two get knocked from their perches, the overpriced Dow is on its way down the Dow staircase. Read my clips: Why the Dow is worthless - and gold is priceless.
This is a Tom Calandra article from MarketWatch.
Its a great read with comments and opinions from several
market analysts. There are also links to other good articles.

Tom goes over a lot of what he said at the Vancouver Conference.

sector@RichPowell The audit of central bank gold held...#9658402/03/03; 19:32:53 least those that report, will appear soon

And it tends to confirm that the gold is gone from the cenrtral banbks in about the same ratio as their loans -- 50% gone -- as in not in the central bank vaults.

Portugal does not have 68% of the gold they swapped. They report this in their annual report for 2001 and in earlier annual reports. They are one of the few Euro Area banks that report gold holdings. The others that report also indicate the absence of gold their vaults relating to loans, swaps and forward sales consistent with the thesis that 14-16,000 thousand tonnes of central bank gold that has been loaned, swapped or sold forwrad has been physically removed and is no longer present in their vaults.

R PowellPOG #9658502/03/03; 19:33:11

Kitco is still showing +$3.10 !

Will tomorrow bring the much anticipated and often mentioned gap opening on Comex? Does anyone care? Yes, the technical chart readers believe this is very potent stuff.
Me? I'm just estatic to be able to watch the price rise. Now, if something would just kick-start silver, I will become intolerably overjoyed.
However, I will work hard to restrain myself. (:>)
Don't worry, the market doesn't respond to anyone, only itself, so no one can jinx it. It's not like mentioning a no-hitter in baseball during the game.

Clink!Kinross#9658602/03/03; 19:37:48

Yeah, my account looked great until they adjusted the stock quantity :>( However, I think the split was so the shares in the new company 1/ are still marginable (TVX was in the teens)and 2/ can be bought by mutual funds.

It's interesting how the strength has move east - spot at around $373.5 as I type. I can only remember seeing this yesterday, the middle of last week, and a couple of times last year. Usually, it's nearly a flat line. Even if the ratio of contracts to physical delivery stays the same, the increased interest would fuel a significant increase in metal demand.

R PowellSector // Silver Hoard#9658702/03/03; 19:47:02

Sector, if that much physical is really gone, and not just moved to another central bank, then Adam Hamilton's projection of many, many thousands of dollars/ounce may be very doable. Any links or sources?? Also, where did it go as in who now holds it? TIA

Silver Hoard, are you familar with an expression call "the patience of Job"? It may be necessary to have such with silver but I, for one, still think silver prices will explode one day fairly soon. Both Butler and Morgan have vocalized the notion that an industrial physical shortage involving non-delivery of just-in-time needed supplies might be necessary to awaken the market? Patience?

ElGordoBudget has 42% increase for SEC investigations#9658802/03/03; 19:56:39

WASHINGTON (AFX) - President George Bush is requesting a 42 pct increase in the Securities and Exchange Commission's budget to 842 mln usd for 2004 from Congress following a flurry of corporate scandals and some of the largest business collapses in US history.

The requested rise in the securities regulator's 2004 budget from 594 mln usd in 2003 and 489 mln in 2002 was revealed today in a new White House budget request released by the administration.

The president indicated in a recent radio address that he would be seeking additional funding for the SEC, Bush noted that an end to corporate wrongdoing would help restore investors' confidence in the nation's financial markets which have fallen for three straight years in a row.

"The 2004 President's Budget calls for 842 million dollars for the SEC, nearly double the 2002 level. With it, the SEC will be able to hire more accountants, attorneys, and examiners to protect investors, root out fraud, and instill corporate responsibility," the president's budget request said.

James McConnell, SEC executive director, said in a telephone briefing with reporters that the president's budget request for 2004, if approved by Congress, will enable the SEC to hire 710 new staff to boost oversight of the nation's financial markets.

"This number is the largest budget increase we've ever had in the history of the agency," McConnell said in reference to the 2004 budget request.

"This increase will provide us with 710 new staff over our current operating levels," McConnell explained.
Scandal Inc. IPO coming soon?

mikal@El Gordo#9658902/03/03; 20:08:48

The first thing that comes to mind when I hear the words "SEC" is government pork. But now that you have revealed the size of their new trough, I have to wonder what the agency intends to consume to sustain its new girth.
TrojanThe Real but Unspoken Reasons for the Upcoming Iraq War#9659002/03/03; 20:09:27


This article has just been Updated since it was first published in December. It now adds to the Article the major changes to the Currency Wars such as Russia tying their currency reserves 10 % to Gold.

It is updated to the end of January 2003.

This is one of the most Brilliant Essays that I have ever read on the Internet.

sector@RichP The links are to the various Annual reports and the IMF#9659102/03/03; 20:11:07

The article will be out soon

As for the loans. In order for the loans to be effective in suppressing the gold price, they must be routed through the COMEX, LBMA or TOCOM as available metal to borrow and then sell, and not as a transaction with other central banks as that would not appear on the markets in the form of trader positions or derivatives.

It's interesting also that Berkshier Hathaway today announced they still had all their silver and more importantly they bought it below market prices which served to support the price during their acquisitions.

Clink!@ Trojan#9659202/03/03; 20:15:06

Yes, well worth the time to read it.
ElGordoPlatinum hits $712 in Asia !#9659302/03/03; 20:16:08

Mikal, all those new attorneys will be dredging up crud after
corporate crud and bottom feeders. Grab some popcorn and pull
up a chair for the next 10 years!

Look at Platinum GO!

silvercollectorsector#9659402/03/03; 20:24:47

Buffett still has his silver! Where do you come up with these gems!


mikal@El Gordo#9659502/03/03; 20:47:46

"Dredging up crud for many years..." I would expect some justice, yet, can they be counted on to be as objective as say, the IRS or the old SEC, using selective enforcement and political targeting? And must they be over-financed through deficit spending, like every other department, agency or division of government? When will they be satisfied with an operations budget that grows less than an annual Congressional pay raise?
PizzNow, that looks like a few shorts covering their seat cusions#9659602/03/03; 20:52:23

Waverider: Volitility equals high demand and thin float for up markets. PM's

Volitility equals low demand and heavy float for down drafts (the coming market "correction")


TrojanHave A Look "Bernanke Of The FEED Speaks#9659702/03/03; 20:56:07

Yes, he spoke today. Look for the code words.

Comments appreciated.

Thank You

TrojanSnippet From Bernanke Speech#9659802/03/03; 21:02:52

An important example is the international gold standard, the dominant monetary system of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.

Under the gold standard, at least in principle, the central bank's responsibility regarding monetary policy extended only so far as ensuring that the value of the currency in terms of gold was stabilized at the legally specified value.

In short, under a strict gold standard the monetary policy rule would be, "Maintain the price of gold at so many dollars per ounce." Although the gold standard system malfunctioned and ultimately collapsed during the chaotic economic and financial conditions that followed World War I, many economic historians have credited it with promoting price stability and robust international trade and capital flows during 1870-1913, the so-called classical gold standard era.

1 Another example of a rule-like monetary policy institution is a currency board, such as the ones currently employed by Hong Kong and several eastern European nations.

On the other side of the debate, advocates of discretion have firmly rejected the use of strict rules for policy, arguing that central bankers must be left free to set monetary policy as they see fit, based on their best judgment and the use of all relevant information. Supporters of discretion contend that policy rules of the type advocated by Friedman are simply too mechanical and inflexible for use in real world policymaking; in particular, simple rules cannot fully accommodate special circumstances or unanticipated events.

2 During the past few decades, for example, financial innovation and new transactions technologies have led to large and difficult-to-predict changes in the empirical relationship between money growth and the rates of growth of output and prices. If central banks had slavishly followed Friedman's k-percent rule for money growth during this period, critics point out, substantial economic instability would have been the likely result; indeed, most central banks have de-emphasized money growth as a policy target or indicator in recent years. More generally, opponents of rules have argued that, as a practical matter, policymakers can never credibly commit to abandoning discretion in favor of supposedly "unbreakable" rules.

3 The problem, this argument runs, is that the public will understand that the central bank always has the option of abandoning its rule, should the rule happen to dictate a policy action perceived at the time as counterproductive. Hence, an announcement by the central bank that it is adopting a strict policy rule would carry little credibility.

R PowellPercentage moves#9659902/03/03; 21:16:33

When POG reaches $1,000/ounce, a $10.00 move will only be a 1% move. Today, POG has gained 1.08% since the Comex close.

Sector, we definitely need some confirmation as to what news service or perhaps a link pertaining to information about Buffett still holding his 130 million ounces of silver. TIA

CytekGold Share Disconnect Continues#9660002/03/03; 21:17:25

The disconnection between gold stocks and the price of the metal continues – and is actually increasing. Our analysis of the historic relationship between gold stocks and the bullion price indicates fair value for the XAU at 97.0 based on Friday's closing gold price of $368 per ounce – the 95% confidence range is 69 to 125. With the XAU at 77.0, it would have to gain 26% to return to the normal relationship, with the potential to gain 62% to return to the high end of the range.

Looked at the other way around, gold shares are currently discounting a gold price of approximately $315 per ounce. That implies that gold stocks are ignoring the last 20% rise in the gold price.

Cytek - looks like i'm buyin more bullion and more mining stocks, soon the mines will catchup.

timbervisionCometose#9660102/03/03; 21:18:23

Your verging on manic delight was briefly matched by my chair breaking under me as I had unloaded most of my mines, including Kinross, last Friday, to buy the metal itself.

I'm not particularly concerned now about mine share jumps because I believe to not be in the metal itself represents increasing folly. I had liked to think of the mines and their owners as my friends, partners in our belief of gold as wealth and the end of its period of manipulation, and I did benefit by their rise--although its been mostly a zero sum game since June'02. On further consideration, my general distain for Wall Street and their ability to see all what is going on in the way of short and long positions makes stock holding a gamble at best, and outright criminal manipulation at worst. The mine managements I'm sure are not above being bought out by these creeps, not to mention the probability of nationalization of the mines and a commodity price paid to share holders.

CytekUS chooses Saddam's successor#9660202/03/03; 21:21:01

US chooses Saddam's successor
By Tom Allard, Foreign Affairs Writer
February 4 2003

The United States has chosen a successor to Saddam Hussein from Iraq's notoriously fractious opposition groups, according to a former Iraqi diplomat who lives in Sydney.

Mohamed al-Jabiri, who has just returned from in talks with Washington, said the White House has given its "blessing" to the head of the Iraqi National Congress, Ahmed Chalabi, to lead a transitional coalition government in Iraq once Saddam has been deposed.

Dr al-Jabiri, who talked to Mr Chalabi over the phone last month, said: "He told me that he would take over. He has the blessing of the White House and the State Department."

He said Mr Chalabi had been in talks with another major Iraqi opposition group, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq and the Iranian Government while in Tehran.

Cytek - Guess they got everything figured out.

physicalmanSilverhoard #96582#9660302/03/03; 21:21:37

Hi. Had to respond on the silver issue. Check out my posts 1-21-03-message#95171, 1-23-03-message#95386, 1-24-03-message#95537. I have been in the physical metals big time for 35 years, but of course except for the mintage figures in the earliest post all of the info is an estimate on my part. So as always do your own due diligence.As R Powell said earlier that silver is requiring "the patience of Job", but when that fuse is lit it will be waterproof'short and wedged so tighly in the "explosives" that it can not be pulled out. Will not reveal my other positions but i am sitting on over 11 metric tonnes of ag. so i practice what i preach.
Also something to think about is if all metals explode in USD value would you really trade them for paper? I only would if i thought that some somewhat current version of the dollar would be valid for everyday domestic transactions/commerce. I also feel personally that my positions in this and other arenas requires a responsibility of me to help my fellow man if TSHTF, but this opinion is only my own and would not try to sway the beliefs of yourself or anyone else. Read all the world-class postings of the regular and long-time members of this forum and what you see as the path for your future will come to you. It might include the opinions of others but it will feel right to you and prove itself in hindsight.

Black BladeWorldCom to cut 5,000 jobs#9660402/03/03; 21:33:44


Beleaguered telecom giant WorldCom, in a bid to slash costs for its planned turnaround, said Monday that it will cut about 8% of its workforce, or 5,000 jobs, and trim annual costs by $2.5 billion.

Black Blade: More "Bones" cast upon the growing "Bone Pile". Ya just gotta love the euphemisms from the stock infomercial channel (aka CNBC) – "Jobless recovery". Well, it's half right.

Gandalf the WhiteGREAT job in Clearing the $375. level SPIKE ... BUT .....#9660502/03/03; 21:35:32

Like I told you, unless you let SPOT catch up with you --- They will cover you with PAPER and you have to drop back !!
Please go slower WITH SPOT and then the TWO of you can BITE 'em !!!
$375 tonight is EASY !
How about $380 tomorrow in NY ?
NAW -- make that $387 !!!

Gandalf the WhiteSIR BB ---- Looks as if TOMORROW may be a BEAUTIFUL DAY !#9660602/03/03; 21:37:00

Black BladeGerman shoppers stop spending#9660702/03/03; 21:41:29


German retail sales fell last year for the first time since 1997, as recession-hit consumers reined in spending. For 2002 as a whole, retail sales declined by 2.3%, their worst performance since records began two decades ago. Especially gloomy are month-by-month figures, which show an apparent slowing of sales during the year, contradicting the impression that Germany may be recovering from its slump of a year ago.

Black Blade: It doesn't look very good for most economies.

Black BladeGandy - POG#9660802/03/03; 21:49:36

It's hard to say how it will play out just yet as London has been a little rough on spot. This is the home of PM trading branches that set up shop after leaving the US due to more strict reporting requirements. Note that JP Morgan Chase closed their NY branch last year and set up in London. As each new barrier is passed and held the banks and investment houses regroup and defend the next barrier in a tactical retreat. It gets more difficult for them as more and more physical is withdrawn from the market so they float more and more paper in hopes of fending off the day of reckoning. Until the grand finale we get to have fun watching as they dig themselves into a deeper hole. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Dollar BillSnippets#9660902/03/03; 21:57:06

From a Silver website,

Silver appreciated rapidly in most Asian currencies, but in US dollars, nothing happened. Before that there was Mexico. During the Mexico crisis, silver went from around five something to over $11 almost overnight. So that is a good prelude to what could happen in a monetary crisis.

and from Fall

Thanks in large part to the tight-rope rally in the stock market – a rally that with each step higher seems to presage an even greater fall -- the possibility of an ‘economic rebound’ appears to be within grasp. However, when you start believing that such a rebound is sustainable, or that the circles need not be filled in this go round, what you are really doing is accepting the notion that for the first time ever the consumer can exit a recessionary period in worse financial shape than when they went in.

In order for volatile movements in income and layoffs to be smoothed out consumer demand must be steady and/or strong: demand must be strong enough for companies to raise prices before any trickle down impact from increases in profitability meets employees, and demand must be steady enough so that companies stop laying off workers. Suffice it to say, that the consumer has recently developed a tendency to save more money and borrow less (none) suggests that layoffs and income trends are not about to smooth out anytime soon.

Black BladeUS natural gas production decline expected for sixth consecutive quarter #9661002/03/03; 22:19:12


HOUSTON, Feb. 3 -- Raymond James & Associates Inc. said its pre-reporting fourth quarter 2002 US natural gas production survey suggests a sixth consecutive quarterly decline, analyst Marshall Adkins said. The survey covered 29 of the largest US gas producers and represented 45% of total US production. RJA estimates a 0.6% decline by quarter sequentially and a 4.6% decline on a year-over-year basis. "Given the wide disparity in guidance, historical overly optimistic guidance, and the fact that weather in the fourth quarter was terrible, it is our belief that actual reported production will end up being much lower than the production guidance presented," Adkins said in a Jan. 21 research note. "Furthermore, although the rig count bottomed in late March/early April, drilling activity has yet to increase to a level sufficient to overcome natural declines. Consequently, we are likely to continue seeing sequential declines in production for the foreseeable future," Adkins said.

Black Blade: The NG inventory decline and higher cost is more of a problem than oil. Looks like another energy crisis in the making that will thrust the economy deeper into recession.

WaterboyTrojan - Dollar Hegemony#9661102/03/03; 22:20:33

You asked earlier if I believed this essay.

Yes I do believe this piece, and if I did not I would have to choose between several clearly defective and unacceptable reasons for this oncoming war. I also believe that there is more than a little imperialism in "OUR" intentions.

I also believe that the unintended consequences of our belligerence will be far greater than is generally expected.

Reference (17) to this essay by Stan Goff is a little leftist, but there is a brilliant sentence in a paragraph near the end:

"As in Argentina, when the inevitable tumble into severe economic polarization happens, those who count themselves "middle class" will be rapidly pauperized as the banking system closes its doors to appropriate their savings."

Better than the simple 'got gold'.

Dollar Billgold and silver 2002#9661202/03/03; 22:21:14

As you wait for 400, and mention Sinclair, doesnt he mention on his website that unless folks like you take possesion of your stocks in hand, then the shorts will continue to control that market?

He says rumor has it that his push for owners to take possession of thier stock cert.s has resulted in requests for "millions" of stock certs.
He has no proof of that, and as you mention, you see no evidence that the shorts are losing control, so maybe you guessed correctly with one of your guesses.
Good Luck with your choice.

ForeignerWar on Iraq-Oil/Euro/USdollar/Gold link#9661302/03/03; 22:21:52

I post very rarely here. I do only when I feel I have something important to convey. I believe that this is one of the MOST IMPORTANT articles I have read in many years. It is long but confirms all what Another and FOA/Trail Guide have said about crucial links between oil-euro-US dollar-gold. Anybody who wants to understand what is really is behind current politics MUST read this.
WaveriderKoizumi weaker on deflation #9661402/03/03; 22:32:24

"Koizumi has been ignorant of how much the economic situation has deteriorated since the start of his administration in late April 2001. Observers pointed out that, if things continue as they stand, the goal of economic rehabilitation will only retreat further. Koizumi said in last year's policy speech that he would pay careful attention to keeping the economy from falling into a deflationary spiral and the government would take more determined measures to overcome deflation in cooperation with the Bank of Japan. In contrast, in his policy speech this year, Koizumi said only that the government and central bank would work together to tackle deflation. Since his inauguration as prime minister, Koizumi has been little aware of the seriousness of deflation.

With Koizumi lacking both a sense of crisis and the appropriate policies to tackle deflation, the economic situation has worsened since his inauguration as prime minister. The 225-issue Nikkei Stock Average has fallen from the 14,000 level immediately after the prime minister commenced his term in office in April 2001 to the 8,300 level, with the market value of stocks listed on the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange dropping from 382 trillion yen to 237 trillion yen as of Thursday.

Takuro Morinaga, UFJ Research Institute chief researcher, said: "The Koizumi Cabinet's failed policies have aggravated deflation, but the prime minister didn't show any remorse in his policy speech. The economy will fall into an unrecoverable state unless the prime minister changes his policy by introducing an inflation target, for example."

Waverider: A new Bank of Japan governor will be chosen around Feb. 20, earlier than first expected. Inflation targets sound inevitable.

Daniel DruffR Powell#9661502/03/03; 22:41:36

Mr. Veneroso's Updated Analysis

© 2002 Frank Veneroso & Declan Costelleo
Messrs. Venerosa & Costelleo's article was originally published on
December 2, 2002

The above appeared at the end of Mr. John Brimlow's conclusion from Financial Sense, which was included in Mr. Howe's article. I checked my #96488 and couldn't find where I used the words, "Recent Analysis". However, December 2, 2002 is relatively recent which would account for your use of that word.

"Perhaps Mr. Howe is incorrect when he speaks of Mr. Veneroso's updated analysis as containing 'three new points worthy of mention.'" I was quoting Mr. Howe and I assure you that I was not trying to fool the group.

R Powell: "The third point is Mr. Veneroso's statement that a market "managed by official sector" will eventually see a failure of this manipulation. I'm always encouraged when I hear the opinion that the market forces of supply and demand will eventually overpower undue influence. Being that this was written eight months ago I wonder if the last two months POG move from about $320 to its present $370 or so would qualify (in Mr. Veneroso's mind) as that failure that he predicted? Perhaps not the entire failure but, at least the beginning of that failure of manipulation?"

I certainly would not dare to speak for Mr. Veneroso but I do know that he was not convinced that Japanese buying would overwhelm the official sector this past May. However, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to learn that his thoughts have changed with the timing of this second Nipponese go around; but for now, I'm especially interested in your thoughts on Market Shock, the possibility mentioned in the third point, which you may have missed.

I agree with you entirely regarding actual movement of our gold from our control. I assume and I hope that our guys still have control of the vault. If we owe anybody some fiat, no problem...Governor Bernanke says we can put the printing presses to work. What a system! The absurdity of it kinda brings a smile to my face.

So you're the silver king here...I like it.

Thank you

Daniel Druffphysicalman#9661602/03/03; 22:47:30

"Also something to think about is if all metals explode in USD value would you really trade them for paper?"


Thank you

Dollar BillDoes R Powell debunk Sinclair here?#9661702/03/03; 22:59:47

Am I reading this correctly?

James Sinclair, CEO Tan Range
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Why sit back and be taken advantage of? Why let the wise guys who have fought the up-move in gold from their derivative trading desks also damage your gold share position without doing something to help yourself? This gold community should stop taking the hits and stop walking away unhappy. The short positions that exist in almost every gold share, in sizes of shares sold short, are beyond reason. In some companies, the short is so big that I firmly believe the entire float has been shorted. I have explained this phenomenon to you. It has robbed you of a proper valuation of your shares in light of the strong, and soon to be stronger, gold price. Gold is going over $400 - do you want to see your gold shares languish? Well, if you do nothing and let yourself be taken advantage of, then you do not deserve anything better.

My suggestion to you is get moving and nail the culprits that are picking your pockets.

There is something that you can do that is as effective as RAID on a BUG,
but you have to do it now:

Take Physical Delivery of Your Share Certificates Immediately!

This is not because I fear any financial problems with your brokers, but rather it is because taking delivery of your shares will stop the short selling and increase the risk significantly to the present outrageous short positions that have accumulated in your gold shares. It is the lending of your shares that has allowed the legal shorts to exist. Therefore, you have allowed these wise guys to sell the shares short to the degree that they have hung themselves, if you will only act. I would even suggest that those on margin sell something else to pay off your margin debt and take delivery.
R Powell (01/24/03; 21:54:25MT - msg#: 95541)
Commodity short selling
From Sector,....
"If it could, the price would stay down. There must be an originating title transfer of physical tonnage gold in order to establish the paper metal used on the markets to short gold. This causes a loss of ownership and associated claims at central banks for the bars and delivery [Deliveries are staggered by loan maturity dates]. This delivery may be outside the COMEX or LBMA's operational scope."

This is simply not true. Anyone with an account can buy or sell on the commodities markets. With one phone call I can sell gold or any commodity I choose. The only requirement is margin to ensure payment to the counterparty.
Where is the "originating title transfer of physical" behind the short position in silver? Ted Butler has been complaining about more silver shorted on Comex than exists on all the world's exchanges combined!
There does NOT have to exist any transfer of title to physical gold in order to short gold. The whole speculative category of traders are so-called because they do not produce nor do they use the commodities they speculate in.
I have sold silver, frozen orange juice, corn, soybean oil and many other things that I never held title to!! Selling short does NOT require any titles, ownership, or borrowing in any way, shape or form. Unlike stock short selling which (I believe) requires borrowing shares to sell, selling gold on Comex requires no borrowing, only a buyer. Commodity speculative shorting does not even imply any intent to deliver as long as the position is offset by first notice day.
Believe me, short selling requires no title transfer, ownership or borrowing. Selling that which one does not possess is a hard concept, think of it as crazy rules in a funny game if that helps. Now, how about the Comex short silver position which totals more silver than exists! Strange but true.

Dollar Billoops#9661802/03/03; 23:10:06

Uh, believe I missed this line.
"Unlike stock short selling which (I believe) requires borrowing shares to sell, selling gold on Comex requires no borrowing, only a buyer"

WaveriderSpot's rockin'#9661902/03/03; 23:12:32

Heading towards $376.00
GaleriderNONE#9662002/03/03; 23:25:07

SPIKE IS ROLLIN' They're there.
GaleriderNONE#9662102/03/03; 23:27:28

OH NO! The pets of the forum just got covered in paper!
Trojan@ Foreigner Your Post # 96613#9662202/03/03; 23:29:38

Dear Foreigner

See my Post # 96590 where I recommended the Article that just did in your Post # 96613.

The only reason that I am pointing this out to you and anyone else interested is that the link above includes an Update on the Essay by the Author.

I checked and he Updated it as of January 26TH. He adds some more very interesting items and it is very interesting to see the drop in the US Dollar since his original article which he discusses in his update. Enjoy...

Mr GreshamLimitUp#9662302/03/03; 23:47:29

Are you ready and waiting, to come onstage when we need you? The fat lady may not be ready to sing, but we hope you could maybe hum a favorite tune or two?

Dollar (or two) a day? I could get used to this...

Y'know, they "managed" gold for two decades -- flat, then down, then largely flat at 300. Now, maybe, they're managing it up, or perhaps trying to control a runaway train gathering momentum?

We were always told here to "follow in the footsteps of Giants", but I never could see any of 'em on the trail ahead. I was more afraid they were all BEHIND us, and we were likely to get trampled if we sat around and waited to find out. So, keeping moving was a good idea...and being a "small dog" isn't so bad, sometimes. Woof!

TrojanNorth Korea Situation Gets Very Serious#9662402/03/03; 23:49:15

I wrote about this topic last week. The situation is rapidly getting out of hand as I predicted.

I wonder if this is helping Gold out.

The Article in the Link above gives a pretty good summary of the entire situation up to Friday or so.

Monday, Rumsfeld Put the B-52 Bombers on Alert.

Wednesday should be an interestng day at the UN.

Gandalf the White<;-) Have no fear ! I have taught SPIKE and SPOT what to do with PAPER !#9662502/03/03; 23:50:58

How about $380 tonight NOW SPOT ?
Let us see how you can BITE !!

Gandalf the WhiteKEEP Jumping, SPOT !#966262/4/03; 00:22:41

Just took out $376. for the SECOND time !
About 40 minutes until THE CITY gets to show the "FIX".
THEN the REAL SHOW will be after HIGH NOON in NY !!

ZhishengGandalf#966272/4/03; 00:30:59

On the February 2 James Sinclair stated that if gold were to close at $371.5 or higher, it would rise rapidly above $400. And that the "First Two Weeks of February Have Super Bullish Potential Implications".

One of his favorite prediction devices is to compute at what spot price the big shorts' risk avoidance software programs will automatically cause them to cover.

I wonder if it is only a close at certain prices which precipitates action, or if interday (or internight) spikes will also suffice?

Since presently they are so lively, why not have Spot and Spike test out this hypothesis tonight---or this morning? In the interests of science!

Belgian@ Foreigner @ Trojan @ All#966282/4/03; 00:50:46

Note that not so long ago, IRAN decided to repatriate all its "Physical" Gold-reserves from London to Teheran !!!
Are they (Iran) suggesting we should do the same and move Physical Gold out of the CPM-vaults (Denver) to our personal secret places, all over the world ? Think strongly so...NOW ! (smiles, please)

ElGordo@Mikal#966292/4/03; 00:56:47

I agree with what you said about the SEC being political a lot of the time and it should be reasonably budgeted. The administration
seems almost desperate to try anything to help the market and
they are trying to restore investor confidence super quick with
dramatic moves. A 42% increase in the SEC is unprecendented!

Bush is really throwing a lot of money at just about anything these
days. Smacks of economic desperation. We will see huge deficits
for many years into the future and this bodes well for a bull
market for PMs that will last for quite a long time. IMO

I go away for a few hours and look what happens... $376!

TopazBonds and Gold. #966302/4/03; 01:07:20

After fairly benign activity in the Bond pit's we're now beginning to see a shift in the short/long spread...this will bear watching imo.
It may be just Goldbug cynicism but!
If GWB and co acquiese to the UN line at the proverbial "last-minute" WHAT/WHO would benefit the most?
The UN would...immensely!
The Dollar would!

The lame duck reasons for War could be a smokescreen to entrench the UN as Worldcop....and frisk poor old Goldbugs into the bargain.

Just a thought fwiw.

ElGordoFrench economy losing steam#966312/4/03; 01:12:55

Paris, Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- French consumer confidence fell to a five-year low in January as unemployment climbed, suggesting household spending in Europe's third-largest economy may lose steam.

An index based on a government survey of 2,000 households fell to minus 22 from minus 17 in December. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected a reading of minus 18.

``I don't expect to find a job right away,'' said Anna Cerda, a 26-year-old student, leaving a Gap Inc. clothing store in central Paris. ``I pay attention to what I spend and have been waiting for the discount sales.''

Optimism among French consumers is dwindling as companies including Pechiney SA, the world's fourth-biggest producer of aluminum, and Nexans SA, the world's largest cable maker, cut payrolls. The number of jobseekers climbed to a 28-month high of 2.45 million in December and the rate rose to 9.1 percent.

Consumer spending accounts for more than half of Europe's third-largest economy, and spared it from recession last year when growth in gross domestic product probably declined to 1 percent, the weakest since France's 1993 recession.

French car and light-truck sales fell 9.3 percent in January, as demand for older car models such as Renault SA's Clio and Laguna declined.

Black BladeAsian and Euro market In The Red#966322/4/03; 01:24:27

Asian markets were marginally lower and Euro markets are taking a hit this morning. Economic and geopolitical pressures are keeping equities markets under water and safe havens are doing well as the USD falls again in spite of Japanese intervention.

- Black Blade

Black BladeMarket Indicators#966332/4/03; 01:28:54

US market index futures are falling lower, the USD is lower, PMs and petroleum are solidly higher. If this should hold then the opening bell on Wall Street should be quite exciting.

- Black Blade

ElGordoBritish troops ordered to prepare for 3 year occupation of Iraq#966342/4/03; 01:42:52

Senior British Army officers have been told to prepare for an occupation of Iraq lasting up to three years in the event of war, BBC News has learned.

MoD sources have also said many UK troops being sent to Kuwait would probably be used for peacekeeping and "rearguard" duties, rather than in frontline fighting.

ElGordoTOCOM logs highest ever volume!>>> More than Feb 3 #966352/4/03; 01:54:27

TOKYO, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Japan's biggest commodity futures exchange logged its highest-ever volume for a second day running on Tuesday as gathering war clouds over Iraq sent speculators flocking to precious metals and energy contracts.

ADVERTISEMENTTurnover of all commodities on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange came to a staggering 739,006 lots, well up from Monday's 693,009 lots, the previous record.

The record came as Washington prepared to make its case against Iraq before the United Nations Security Council -- an event many see as a key step on the road to war in the Gulf.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell addresses the Security Council on Wednesday, pledging to provide "sober and compelling proof" that Baghdad is hiding banned weapons of mass destruction from arms inspectors.

Gold (0#JAU:) was the hottest item on TOCOM, with turnover clocking in at 294,510 lots or 294.5 tonnes -- up from Monday's 254,831 lots -- as investors sent the benchmark December contract (JAUZ3) bounding to an 11-year high.

Platinum (0#JPL:) was next in line, with a total volume of 169,826 lots, compared with 116,345 lots. Futures prices topped 12-year highs amid supply worries and forecasts of greater fuel-cell demand.

Black BladeTOCOM logs record volume ahead of Powell speech#966362/4/03; 01:58:32


TOKYO, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Japan's biggest commodity futures exchange logged its highest-ever volume for a second day running on Tuesday as gathering war clouds over Iraq sent speculators flocking to precious metals and energy contracts.

Black Blade: Looks like the Japanese have a yen for commodities. Anything but Yen.

BelgianAnglo - French Summit.....#966372/4/03; 01:58:46

Chirac and Blair : Both have to talk about military affairs (NATO + M.E.) against a background of severely detoriating economies. It is in such situations that one should expect the unexpected. Simply because the room for maneuvering is fastly narrowing. At certain points, all difficulties (economical/political) seem to confluent and demand drastic solutions that have been postponed for too long. The lists of stumbling blocks are endless. This can't be defined otherwise than "DRAMATIC" times, wich is much more strongly than interesting times !
Black BladeGold Short Covering Explosion?#966382/4/03; 02:12:33

If the POG should hold or even rise through $380 for example during NY trade it could trigger a hell of an explosive short covering rally and shake out a lot of short positions. It would be fun to see a lot of these players lose their shirts. It could do much the same to spear a lot of short positions in the PM shares as well. It would be fun to see a lot of LTCM types get their heads handed to them on a platter and go tits up in the process. Now that would be "entertainment"!

- Black Blade

ElGordoUS has chosen Saddam's successor? #966392/4/03; 02:27:38

The United States has chosen a successor to Saddam Hussein from Iraq's notoriously fractious opposition groups, according to a former Iraqi diplomat who lives in Sydney.

Mohamed al-Jabiri, who has just returned from in talks with Washington, said the White House has given its "blessing" to the head of the Iraqi National Congress, Ahmed Chalabi, to lead a transitional coalition government in Iraq once Saddam has been deposed.

Dr al-Jabiri, who talked to Mr Chalabi over the phone last month, said: "He told me that he would take over. He has the blessing of the White House and the State Department."

He said Mr Chalabi had been in talks with another major Iraqi opposition group, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq and the Iranian Government while in Tehran.

Mr Chalabi moved to Sala-huddin in Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq last week, ahead of an expected United States-led invasion. Opposition forces will hold a summit in northern Iraq on February 15.

KodieBlack Blade - Gold Short Covering Explosion?#966402/4/03; 03:11:31

Clearing head after a wake-up nature call. My figures may be wrong, correct me if they are.

A short investor has 10 100 oz. contracts, or 1,000 ounces of paper gold at 365.00 or 365,000 dollars. He is forced to cover his shorts at 375.00 per ounce, or 375,000 dollars.

The loss is 10,000 dollars, seemingly not enough to "break the bank" as they say. I would hate to lose 10K, but it would not take me out of the market, and I'm not a trader.

The shorts and the longs have been playing on a very thin margin for a couple of years. With the recent gains in gold, it will get very interesting.


SundeckIndians cash in on high gold price#966412/4/03; 03:56:53


"People are selling off their heirloom gold ornaments - traditionally cherished among Indians - and coins as war fears in the Middle East have propelled gold prices to new heights over the past few weeks. Expat Indians are also pumping in forex exchange and converting part of their asset holdings into gold as they seek a safer haven for savings."

Seems to be a modest shift from fabrication to investment...what will happen as the price rises further?

Black BladeKodie#966422/4/03; 04:37:49

Actually I was thinking in terms of the Gold loan arena shorts with tons of metal sold off and the big boys with huge shorts in PM shares as well as contracts. Not necessarily the small fry though. But it would be nice to see them get creamed too.

"He who sells what isn't his'n must pay it back or go to prison" - unless they have very powerful friends (like LTCM?).

- Black Blade

RobotGuyAhh, the old London smackdown! Oh well, she's gonna test 400 soon anyway, war or no war, it's in the charts.#966432/4/03; 04:53:00

Black BladeEuro Markets Awash In Red#966442/4/03; 04:57:00

Euro markets are deep in the red and are slipping off into the abyss.

- Black Blade

TownCrierPimco's Gross Says Dollar Decline Shows U.S. Economic Fragility#966452/4/03; 04:59:48

Newport Beach, California, Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The weaker dollar is a signal the U.S. may lose its status as the world's chief magnet for investment and an ``economic powerhouse,'' said Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund.

The cost of an extended defense against terrorist threats has combined with the past stock market bubble, high personal debt, and a large trade deficit to leave the U.S. economy and its currency vulnerable when foreigners decide to withhold investment, Gross said on Pacific Investment Management Co.'s Web site.

``Foreigners have and will continue to sell the dollar and U.S. investments in fear of guns-and-butter bills to come,'' Gross wrote. ``Because of 9/11 and our necessity to fight a new kind of war, America is losing its peace dividend at a time when'' it can't afford to, he wrote.

The dollar has lost 20 percent of its value against the euro in the past 12 months, and 13 percent against the yen.

The U.S. economy needs $1.4 billion a day in foreign investment to offset its current-account deficit and maintain the value of the dollar.

--------(see url for article)-------

One of Bill's "public service announcements" so that he isn't viewed so much as though he were just a garden variety putz who was caught off guard when the bonds in his "world's largest portfolio" inevitably go hard south.


RobotGuyExtreme parabolic basin formation#966462/4/03; 05:02:51

Belgianeuro - dollar#966472/4/03; 05:02:57

Euro and dollar 10 year-bonds, vibrate together around the same 4% level. If the euro strengthenens further against the dollar, euro-bonds IR-4% can go lower while dollar-bond IR must go higher. Lower IR = stronger currency and inversely.
Higher IRs on the dollar = currency-inflationary !
So the euro would not be in need of a higher IR against the dollar anymore and have some relieving effects on the bank's balance sheets, in contrast with the dollar IRs.
Will see if it works out that way ?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...#966482/4/03; 05:08:11

Q. I've noticed that USAGOLD / Centennial stresses education more than most of your competitors. Why is that?

MK. For years, we have emphasized "We educate first-time investors" in our advertising. We believe education to be the key to successful gold ownership. To make a long story short, we tend to keep our clientele as they become better educated, while many of our competitors tend to lose their clientele once they become educated. It shows in the type of services we consider important to complement our sales and delivery programs.

Randy interjects... Mike is way too nice to say this bluntly so I will. What I've noticed about the apparent rationale behind some of those other firms' operating philosophy is that, if they bend the client over far enough for their wallet the first time they ever do business together, they really don't have to care about getting repeat business. It doesn't have to be that way, but some people simply don't take the time to shop around for a quality firm. They should.

Q. What are some of the criteria a prospective investor should look for in a gold firm?

MK. Credibility, longevity, pricing, service and compatibility -- all come into the mix. Of those I rate credibility and its sister virtues -- reliability and reputability -- the most important. Too many of the national firms have brokers who were selling condos at the beach or automobiles a month ago and now suddenly they've become "gold experts" selling leverage schemes, $50,000 rare coins, reproduction medallions at 25 times their gold content, or overpriced silver investments. Most sophisticated gold investors would probably like to avoid that sort of thing. ...Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. Can you briefly describe some of the pitfalls a beginner might be on the look out for?

MK. The biggest trap investors fall into is buying a gold investment that bears little or no relationship to his or her objectives. Take safe haven investors for example. That group makes up 90% of our clientele, and probably a good 75% of the current physical gold market. Most often the safe-haven investors simply want to add gold coins to their portfolio mix, but by the time they finish talking with a typical national firm, they might end up in a leveraged gold position, exotic rare coins, or being diverted into silver or platinum. Others drift into gold stocks or gold futures which in reality are proxies for real gold ownership and could actually act opposite the intent of the investor. There's nothing wrong with any of these non-physical investments per se, it's just that none of them is really a safe-haven. The investor should bear this in mind. The question investors must always answer for themselves is "How will this investment serve me should the economy or financial markets suffer a major disruption?"

TopazBelgian @Bonds#966492/4/03; 05:40:08

Makes for an interesting adjunct to watching PoG eh?
The liquidity aspect of Eurozone Bonds intrigues me Belgian...if the Bund10 (say) is fairly priced to reflect the stronger Euro, it's Yield should be 3.6% or thereabouts. The shorter maturities would therefore call for a rate cut.
If the trend persisted (say) $150-E100 you'd cut again...get my drift?
That's why I feel this a case of Dollar induced Global DEflation rather than Dollar INflation.

The rules have changed's every man for himself in the Currency arena....including Papergold!

TownCrierMORE -- Pimco's Gross: Loss of US hegemony hurts investors#966502/4/03; 05:52:54

NEW YORK, Feb 3 (Reuters) - A spendthrift United States is losing its "peace dividend" as war and terrorism fears mount, a change that may boost the inflation rate and hurt corporate profits, the U.S. dollar and investor returns, according to Bill Gross, who runs the world's largest bond mutual fund.

Gross said on Monday that the United States is entering a "somewhat vicious cycle of policy reversal" that might lead to "anemic" gains for investors.

"Many of us will have to adjust, either in the form of higher unemployment, an increased price for imported goods, or heavier indirect taxes in the form of higher inflation and interest rates," he said.

"Investment strategies, both bond and equity, should put these secular reversals at the top of their 'A' list when considering opportunities to make relative and absolute returns," Gross added.

He has said U.S. bond investors should expect 4 percent to 5 percent annual gains over the next several years, roughly half the rate between 2000 and 2002, and that he was buying for his portfolios some euro-denominated and emerging market debt.

Gross also last September made waves when he said 5,000 was fair value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

-------(see url for article)-------

Bill paints an uglyish picture for paper in general.

Don't let the fate of your wealth and transferrable purchasing power suffer as inflatable paper instruments are wont to do. Diversify your commercial and fiat holdings into a prudent position that includes the timeless wealth of kings, gold. Call USAGOLD-Centennial today to lock in your order for delivery to your door!


Topazfurther Sir B,#966512/4/03; 06:07:08

Just to hammer home a point I've been trying to make for month's....the T-Bond Yield's have been DECLINING for 20 Yr's and only the recent weakness in Physical Dollars (HA! like Physical Shares) has stemmed the decline.
However...despite a 20% depreciation vis Euro the Yields haven't reversed.
Why do you think Japan is desperate to maintain a Dollar/Yen exchange rate status quo and let the Euro/Yen float?....because it's a deflationary suicide to do otherwise.
T10 will hold @ 4% and the Dollar depreciate vis everything thus driving all currencies into the Abyss.
There will be no Dollar inflation Sir B,

Unless a White Knight unseats her!

TownCrierGold outshines major currencies#966532/4/03; 06:42:43

The top graph in this latest update shows since January 2001 gold performing very well against the whole suite of major currencies -- Swiss Franc, Euro, Dollar, and Yen.

Which would you rather hold for the long term? Centennial would be happy to broker your exchange, paper into gold. Call today to discuss a strategy that's right for you.


canamami$US settlement and gold price suppression#966542/4/03; 07:03:57

Quaere whether the gold price suppression served multiple purposes.

One set of purposes: Hide inflation, thereby keeping the equities boom going, thereby ensuring Clinton's re-election and, later, acquittal at the impeachment trial. Longer term Clintonite goal: Disrupting capitalism could then set the stage for the 60's leftists late-in-life expansion of government power, while saddling the Republicans with the blame for the new depression.

Another set of purposes: gold price suppression constituted part of the price of continued, at least for a time, $US settlement (a variation on the FOA/Another theme). Haven't had time to reason it through, just throwing it out. It would seem that we would need evidence of disproportionate Arab accumulation of gold during the suppression period for this thesis to be supportable.

misetichBush's $2.2 Trillion Budget Proposes Record Deficits#966552/4/03; 07:21:04


Mr. Bush's budget forecasts a deficit of $304 billion in the current fiscal year, and projects a deficit of $307 billion for the 2004 fiscal year, which begins Oct. 1. Over the next five years the total projected deficit would be more than $1 trillion, a potentially problematic number for Mr. Bush, who as a presidential candidate vowed that he could both cut taxes and eliminate the national debt.

The budget included no projection of the cost of any war with Iraq, which administration officials have said could be as low as $50 billion and as high as $200 billion. If there is a conflict, officials said, Mr. Bush would ask Congress for the money as an emergency supplement.

The budget calls for cuts in a wide range of domestic spending, including trims in Justice Department programs on juvenile delinquency and tribal courts and a halt in financing for the hiring of police officers. Money for a public housing program and aid to rural schools also would be cut. Over time, government-financed child care and children's health insurance would be reduced.
The president's top priority, Mr. Daniels said, was protecting the country from terrorist attack. As a reflection of that, he said, the administration was requesting $41 billion for domestic security and $380 billion for defense, an increase of 4.2 percent beyond what was already the biggest military buildup since the administration of Ronald Reagan.

Whatever happened to the projected surpluses of the new economy, the new paradigm, the productivity miracle?

The US "enjoyed" a big boost from local and foreign investments in recent years due to the "promised land of technological revolution" - trillions have been poured in and whilst the infrastrure was being built irrational exhuberance at all levels took place as the stock bubble grow - everybody "won" (gold investors included as they were given the lifetime opportunity to accumulate gold at the cheapest prices in US $) - government racked in taxes, investors gleemed as their paper portfolio (perceived wealth) grew -

and the inevitable boom and boost cycle - and bingo here we are

The US economy is in recession - an technical argument can be made but jobs are being lost and the numbers are massaged to portray growth - aided by unproductive military and housing spending -

Investors portfolios and retirement funds are decimated - and with all probabilities it well get much worse -

Federal government running printing presses at full speed - enormous deficits are projected - ******* NOTE***** The cost of servicing the $6.4 trillion debt not included in these "projections"

State and local governments are cash strapped - with tax inflows deteriorating -

What is holding up the US $????????

Got gold?

Belgian@ Topaz: there will be no dollar inflation.....#966562/4/03; 07:32:02

Please Sir, will you fill in the dots in the next phrase :
A US$ AS GOOD AS .........................

BoilermakerPM stocks moving#966572/4/03; 07:37:13

Looks like some eagerness to purchase PM stocks this AM.
misetichAuto Sales Down in January#966582/4/03; 07:44:43


DETROIT, Feb. 3 — Auto sales dropped 2 percent in January from a year earlier, carmakers reported today, signaling what many analysts say will be a tough year for the industry. Consumers are expected to benefit, though, from a wave of new products, particularly from foreign automakers like Nissan Motor, and cheaper prices because of the competition.
Analysts said the numbers would have been worse had they not been propped up by sales to fleets, which are less profitable for automakers. One of the most popular vehicles last month was the Buick Century, a staple of rental car fleets; its sales rose 174 percent.

A huge number of people are employed in the auto industry - and the prospects are not too promising -

Most expect a "repeat" of the 90 Gulf War overlooking and/or perhaps not grasping the present conditions -

Things have changed - and are changing - There will be no quick end after the Iraq invasion -

The solution of using force and take pre-emptive strikes is not the best solution in the long run - The span of control is getting bigger and bigger - unmanageable - both at home and internationally for the uS

Enemies are taking advantage of this opportunities presented and more unexpected caos will develop

The European Superpower is growing - and are ready to assume the reign - built on diplomacy rather than force

Oil priced in Euros is just around the corner

Got gold?

21mabryGold price,Jesse Livermore#966592/4/03; 08:07:03

With gold moving up in world markets,how do we correctly value it in relation to the bretton woods system of fluctuating currencies.While gold becomes more dear to me,is it less expensive for a european.Is the value of gold under this system just a matter of where your standing.Under economis laws things are supposed to move to the place that most highly values them'should not gold be moving to the united states.I think it was David Ricardo who first said this in writing,as in many things i may be wrong.Je sse Livermore life story is a great read,have good day everyone.P S PHYSICALMAN, your handle is appropriate with your silver position
Broken Teetest#966602/4/03; 08:51:46

posting test
R PowellBroken Tee#966612/4/03; 08:57:45

It works ! Just like magic

Hello and welcome.
balzacTSX-GOLD INDEX STOCKS -UP ABOUT 4 %#966622/4/03; 09:08:38

Even ABX is up 3%-----wow
WAC (Wide Awake Club)Ghana's gold dilemma#966642/4/03; 09:26:07

The Ghanaian Government is agonising over whether to grant licenses to six mining companies which are ready to invest over $2bn or preserve the forest and help save the earth.

Over the past five years, only a handful of new mines have opened as against dozens in the early to mid 1990s.

Five of the prospective mining companies are interested in mining for gold, but the ore is located inside forest reserves.

One company, Newmont, which is based in Australia, would, alone, pump close to $500m into the ailing Ghanaian economy, even before mining starts, and create about 1,000 jobs directly.

Newmont has found gold in two locations; but one of them falls inside a forest reserve. The company says it wants both concessions or nothing.

Zhisheng@ Gandalf regarding #96627.#966652/4/03; 09:30:55

Thanks for helping with the experiment!
Gandalf the WhiteNie Hao Sir Dr. Zhisheng !#966662/4/03; 09:38:30

Zhisheng (2/4/03; 09:30:55MT - msg#: 96665)
@ Gandalf regarding #96627.
Thanks for helping with the experiment!
I am busy with the $380 Level right now !
SPIKE and SPOT are really JUMPING and ready to BITE any short.
PERHAPS, Sir BB will have less doubt of my next MAGIC !

cyberbatLook Out!!#966672/4/03; 09:53:01

Looks like the cabal may have taken positions at $378.50--The fight is on. This may get interesting before the close.
Gandalf the WhiteBEWARE of the FIREWORKS after the HIGH NOON bells in NY !!#966682/4/03; 09:54:47

BITE 'em !!

OperativeDeja Vu, (WAHOOO) #966702/4/03; 10:08:50

The twelve month period between my 15th and 16th birthdays was much more than a year. Time not only refused to fly by but traversed through the calender like a mule and wagon plowing through a muddy bog. Reminds me a lot of the recent 12 months as gold has ever so slowly climbed its way up the chart. Happy for the progress, but geesh, it has tried the patience of a man who has none. And while patience is exuded as a worthy virtue, I refused to ask the Good Lord to help me in this area because of fear that he would replay a similar episode of the 15-16 years to "teach" me patience.
Anyway, 16 did arrive and I actually got the family station wagon parked between those orange cones to get my drivers license. With keys in hand I soon set out on my first "real" date. I took that young lady out to play a round of golf at the local putt-putt course and dined her proper at the local hamburger shack. I remember being nervous later that evening as we walked to her front porch. The anticipation of that good night kiss.

Well, after the year long trek of the gold charts, I have the same feelings of anticipation as gold approaches the front porch of $400.00 I know there will be even higher, much higher, prices to come, but that first kiss at 400 will be the sweetest one I thinks. It has been a long time in the waiting and has even taught me a little about patience.

Just an old man far past 16 having a moment of rememberance on this fine morning.

R PowellDaniel Druff#966712/4/03; 10:11:23

I just read your 96615 post in which you asked for my thoughts on a possible market shock from a possible end (or a decrease) in market manipulation. This possible shock has been mentioned for years as a violent reaction to price suppression.

It has always seemed logical to me that the removal of any price altering mechanisms from a supposedly free market would then allow that market to readjust to where the normal forces of supply and demand would price it. However, the unwinding of years of increased artificial selling usually propel prices even beyond this point. We'll have to wait to see if this leads to an investment mania similar to the late 1990s tech bubble. As for a market shock, I believe the POG is more likely to reach higher heights by advancing steadily than by spiking higher in huge daily moves. Perhaps this slow but steady "market shock" started when POG broke through the 330 level? I certainly hope so. So, in that sense, I'd argue that the market shock has begun. I never agreed with any predictions of derivative "meltdowns" or market defaults but I do think there are now big money players scrambling to rebalance their hedging or limit their loses in the casino.

As for being the silver king, I have for years wondered why the POS has not reflected price rationing in response to the ongoing supply/demand deficit. I've voiced my opinions and thoughts while searching for answers and information here and elsewhere. I've worked hard to acquire knowledge but I am a self employed concrete finisher by trade and by no means a big player. There are many here who have much more invested than I, and there are many here who, I believe, share my opinion that, eventually, market forces will take the POS much higher. I've found there is a point in silver analysis where new information and knowledge is hard to come by. There is never any fundamental market news but only vague references to silver price movement as being either technical in nature or as a response to gold. The market is oblivious to the basic situation. I don't think industrial silver travels through any exchanges like Comex on its journey from producer to end user. Silver prices do not seem to reflect any fundamental facts but wander up and down on a technical (chart reading) basis. The distinction between speculative and commercial positions on Comex have little meaning. Perhaps here, in silver, is where we might see a real "market shock" but it may require consumption of the fast depleting available supply before the market awakens to the reality of "no more" or "not enough" silver for immediate needs. What do you think?

OperativeWatch Your Step#966722/4/03; 10:28:34

There as been a commerical on TV that shows an elegant young lady stepping out of a limo and making her way past roped off crowds. Suddenly, she slips and falls from camera view to the concrete pathway. In case any of you would like to see a reinactment of this just clink on the above link.

Not only is this an embarrasing moment, you know that's gotta hurt.

sector@Rich Powell Your description of the manipulated market...#966732/4/03; 10:43:09 very close to mine, and your view of a putative "Derivatives meltdown"...

...are also.

The powers [Western gold cartel] that has been controlling gold is indeed moving it upwards, but in a straight line. Thus they signal to acolytes a short-covering timetable. Cover at a specified rate of ounces per day for a specified loss per day.

Today, however, is a very bad day for the cartel. The PM fix is $376.50 and €346.79 significantly higher than yesterday while the dollar falls towards 99. The Major Currency Dollar Index may be awful and that's the one that really matters to the G-10 puppeteers.

The silver thing has been very tough to figure out. Like gold one can surmise that a large official seller has been present but who? After the sale of the Defense stockpile by President Clinton, I prefer to think it's Mexico carrying the load now, since they are the largest producer and could be dealt with at the government administration level. If this belief is true, then there may not be an easy way to interrupt the flow of silver from Mexican mines to be sold at below market prices.

As gold marches up it will drag silver but there is the official selling of silver as the wildcard. When will they quit selling and accept the punishment of higher prices?

The disconnection between gold and silver price slopes will force a rebalancing of the two at some point. THAT would be a silver spike to behold.

If one views the gold market from the perspective that it is a fully manipulated entity, then everything that has transpired over the last seven years makes sense. Today's linear retrenchment upward is explained by the cartel's desire to get to higher ground in an orderly manner so as to allow orderly hedge closures and an orderly dollar devaluation.

The PM fund managers hoping for a $40 pull back in gold and a further fall by the PM stocks are sadly missing the boat AND they are fighting the Fed since the fed wants the gold price higher. Losing games on both counts.

Buy and hold.

adminStock promotions#966742/4/03; 11:05:57

We have removed two posts this AM for mining stock references. This is not a stock tout board. Thank you for your co-operation.
Daniel DruffR Powell#966752/4/03; 11:19:37

Market Shock

We're not on the same page.

Take a look at msg# 96387 re Market Shock. You and sector interpret it as a sharp spike up. Mr. Veneroso's use of the concept is exactly the opposite and that is my warning.

Silver: The poor man's gold will blow your socks off before this mess comes to an end.

Thank you

Belgian@ Sector : You're..."orderly dollar-devaluation" ?#966762/4/03; 11:20:38

Can you elaborate on "HOW" orderly you see the dollar, devaluate ? And will all those dollar-holders-traders-users, simply watch this "orderly" process and stand by idle ? And is the FED the only CB, pulling the strings on the Gold-reserve-management ? TIA.
R PowellWant to smile and feel great !#966772/4/03; 11:24:28

A poster named Coincidence put up a lament by Cramer at the 13:02 time mark next door at gold-eagle. Cramer is crying over the weakening dollar and higher POG. There's no link to provide but it's worth the trip over there.

There's a Usagold link at the top right of each time period page of their forum. It reminds me of the secret passageways from the corner rooms on the Clue game board. Easy traveling.

R PowellCorrection#966782/4/03; 11:28:44

that passageway is

at the top left of each page.

Gandalf! Good work today.

ZhishengUp tinto the close!#966792/4/03; 11:30:25

Sector states (#96673): "The powers [Western gold cartel] that has been controlling gold is indeed moving it upwards, but in a straight line."

I have been suspecting this for some time. The graph (today's spot price) on the link bears this out sure.

timbervisionBelgian#966802/4/03; 11:31:08

The "orderly dollar-devaluation" belief is parallelled by the "orderly sale of paper-gold for gold-in-possession" mindset. Fools gold?
Gandalf the WhiteTHANKS Sir Rich !#966812/4/03; 11:35:29

I thought that I had $379. there at the CLOSE, but it slipped away ! NOTICE the nice even upward MARCH in NY today on the CHART !
STILL, it IS one of BB's "Beautiful Days" !!

ElGordoKuwait closes north areas starting Feb 15#966822/4/03; 11:43:10

KUWAIT (Reuters) - Kuwait's Defense Ministry declared Tuesday northern areas bordering Iraq a military zone closed to unauthorized personnel starting Feb. 15, the state-run Kuwait news agency said.

"No one will be allowed to enter these regions after this date without official permission from the army," the news agency quoted a Defense Ministry statement as saying.

It gave no reason for the closure but the statement follows several weeks of stepped-up U.S. military exercises in northern Kuwait amid preparations for a possible U.S.-led attack on Iraq. Kuwait is expected to be the launch pad for any U.S.-led assault on Iraq if Washington decides to use force to dismantle alleged Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Iraq denies it has such weapons.

PizzSector#966832/4/03; 11:49:27

Your analysis of the increasing gold price makes total sense, in fact so much sense that I'm almost in disbelief that the PM fund managers are behind the eight ball.

Your analysis also makes sense, if the EU is using dollars to buy gold, and having the Euro expand to fill the dollar gap rather than cut rates and expand the Euro supply thru the banking network (not as inflationary).

Was trying to work on this thought in response to Belgian this am, but my time is extremely limited, being so buried in work that my snorkle isn't long enough. . .

Someone talkied about the auto industry this am, and they are correct, we employ lots of people and things don't look real promising for the next 18 months or so. In fact they look rather bleak and the 4% deline in auto sales this year that many are forcasting is about as accurate as the bullish stock market predictions.

buy and hold pm's is good advice.



21mabry(No Subject)#966842/4/03; 11:55:30

It almost seems the networks and the goverment like these tragedies.ITallows them to fill air time and keeps peoples mind off the economic news.I pray for those who died and their loved ones,but it seems this tragic occurence is nothing but a photo opp.
Trojan@ ElGordo "Just A Coincidence"#966852/4/03; 12:06:04

The Muslim Holy Holidays end either on February 14 or February 15. I have read elsewhere that was one of the reasons that a US attack on Iraq could NOT happen before the 15TH of February.

Also Hans Blix reports back to the UN on Friday February 14, 2003. Should be a Dramatic week following. Don't be short Gold :-)

ElGordoTurk on Gold prices#966862/4/03; 12:21:30

On Tuesday, for instance, Russia, joining China and several other countries in a shift toward bullion-linked reserves, said its central bank will boost gold and foreign-currency holdings to $55 billion by year's end, a rise of 17 percent. Many countries in Asia that are running large trade surpluses with the United States, among them Taiwan, Japan and China, have less than 4 percent of their foreign reserves in gold, leaving plenty of room for future gold purchases.

Turk, in following his early January forecast that the gold price would surpass $370 an ounce in the coming weeks, on Tuesday told me he expects the metal's price to reach $434 an ounce by the end of February, less than four weeks' time. Such a gain, 15 percent at current levels, would hearken back to the middle of February 1996, when the metal peaked at $415 an ounce before beginning a 5 1/2-year slide into the dungeon. See: Researcher predicts imminent gold gain.

The researcher's forecasts are bold in their specific timing and price level. Turk's predictions depart from those found at investment banks in London and on Wall Street, where analysts are reluctant to forecast an average gold price higher than $360 an ounce or so for all of 2003. Turk is confident gold, logging inevitable gains as international investors flee the "dollar bubble," will reach $600 this summer and surpass $900 an ounce by February 2004.
Trojan- yes I read that also, I think its the Haj that is over.
Got Gold?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Why gold? Why now? (And how you can get it with a simply phone call...)#966872/4/03; 12:27:15

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Skillful Investors

Just as the primary trend in gold is up as shown by our nearby
graph, the primary trend in stocks is down. If you diversify your
portfolio with gold, you not only gain by being in gold, you gain what
you would have lost in the stock market. Richard Russell, the
well-regarded long-time investment analyst who has correctly and
consistently forecasted the direction of both markets, says the stock
market and gold will cross in the 2000 to 3000 area
. Think about that
for a moment. What will that mean to your portfolio if not properly
diversified with gold? What will it mean if it is?

Gold for you is an easy phone call away.

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

"As a lurker for almost three years it was the opinion expressed on this board as well as other commentary that forced my wife and I to examine the sanity of playing with our life savings in the stock market casino. We bailed completely as the Nasdog was crossing 4400 heading south and immediately went to the physical...the rest is history. Gratitude is an understatment for that heads up. I can't even begin to fathom where we might be otherwise."--Harry Harrison, aka Skydog.

Old YellerOPEC in the crosshairs #966882/4/03; 12:47:55

So is king dollar.

Some important decisions must be made,quickly.

Do the OPEC nations need a serial counterfeiter in
their midst'setting prices and unduly influencing

Perhaps it's time for another currency,one that
appears to holding it's value and is not prone
to violent excess.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Valentine's Day: Gentlemen, Omega necklaces are THE hot fashion item out there#966892/4/03; 12:53:16

Our very own lovely and talented Marie has used our network of connections to offer these beautiful and fashionable Omega necklaces to our clientele at prices WAY below what you will find in stores anywhere. How? We simply don't have to cover the overhead that jewelry stores do as they lease expensive space in the malls and on Main St., USA. Oh, and there's this other reason -- we have a will to pass this savings along to our clients.

So call Marie 1-800-869-5115 ext.106 for great gift-giving suggestions and assistance, and avoid steep jewelry store markups and sales taxes this year.

It will be the easiest thing you do all month. "Hello, Marie? What is an Omega necklace? My wife has been dropping hints about them for months..."

Daniel DruffWhat a disgrace!#966902/4/03; 13:06:35

And to think he's a Harvard man

There's No Bright Side to Gold's Rise

By James J. Cramer
02/04/2003 12:49 PM EST

"Gold's killing us. I know it has become fashionable for some to craft a tale that says gold's rally shows that there could be a comeback in store for the U.S. economy. But I am nothing if not empirical in my judgment about stocks, and I think the gold rally is mutually exclusive when it comes to anything good happening in the rest of the market.

"The idea of a gold rally as an OK thing is based on the notion that we could use a little inflation. The next part of this bright-side argument is that if gold is going up, that is a precursor to having more pricing power, which means there could be some margin expansion for companies.

"I just don't see it that way. Gold, to me, is zero-sum. If gold goes up, stocks go down and they go down because gold is the "anti-investment." Given that most of the big trigger-pullers out there have been schooled with the same text that I have, the gold rally is just dreadful for stocks. It is reminiscent of times we had big rallies in the drillers; there always would be some Pollyanna out there saying the rally in the drillers was good news because it showed economic activity. Sure, but it was the wrong economic activity!

"This contra-argument goes back to the one John Roque presented last week, the one that allows people to say that the dollar decline is also good because it benefits the commodity producers. Let's be clear on this one, too: I don't want the dollar to go down anymore. The dollar's decline is becoming a foreign referendum on President Bush's plan to pay for a war with tax cuts. Right now, the referendum says the president's plan is just plain unrealistic.

"Gold up, dollar down, let's not mince words. We don't want either of these trends from here. We want gold declines and dollar stability. We can't come up with reasons to like every scenario out there. That's simply not rigorous enough. It is terrific if you don't have money on the line; it is a disaster if you are rationalizing why you should commit new money to the market."

THIS Bear Market Will Not End Until The Kudlow & Cramer Show Is Cancelled. None the less, I must admit that I enjoy watching their historic gaffes in Economic Analysis, night after a league of their own.

Thank you

Black BladeD Druff - Cramer#966912/4/03; 13:31:04

That's really very funny! I will have to watch the "Heckel and Jeckel Show" tonight. Maybe Jeckel will have less hair after today. Ya know, he does look like the Boss in the comic strip Dilbert, and just about as intelligent. He is probably still laying out heavy bets on dot.bombs.

BTW, Spot is making an assault on $380 in after hours trade. Maybe - just maybe we will see $434 as per James Turk in a few days. Then we can watch Jeckel have an on air coronary with Heckel pounding him on the chest and debating whether he really wants to give mouth to mouth or just let nature take its course. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

Artie Farkle(No Subject)#966922/4/03; 13:32:27

look out!
Gold at $380!

madgreekGetting a little testy arent we Jimmy?#966932/4/03; 13:34:42

I think it is about time these empty suits come to the realization we are not going away. Too bad they are missing out on some impressive GAINS!!! GO GOLD!!! Godspeed to all physical holders...
OZGold at 381.40#966942/4/03; 13:50:14

great day

glennh10"Dollar Antics", or "Taking Full Advantage of Fiat Economics"#966952/4/03; 13:58:05

This country is carrying a tremendous debt load, while at the same time planning tax cuts, and more spending (debt) to jump start the economy. Also, the president would like to turn the economy around, guns and butter style, in anticipation of the 2004 election. I ponder how much more spending can be accomplished the way things are. The president and congress need to have a nice chunk of the existing dollars/debt conveniently sliced away, giving them greater leverage for creating it all over again. As a possibility, how about a one-time dollar/monetary recall/conversion?

On the international front, this could involve the Fed, in cooperation with the world bank/imf to group countries according to U.S. alliance (friend/foe). The dollar/debt balance of the "friendlies" would be is estimated for a 1:1 conversion to the "new" dollars (remember the "new" pesos?), to take place on a date to be determined. The countries in the "enemy" camp are left out of the plan. On the established date, (1) the accounts of the "friendlies" are converted to "new" dollars, and, (2) the "old" dollars are de-monetized. After this date, the "enemy" countries will have only "old" dollars on account, and they will be unable to make purchases, because they will have no reserve of the "new" dollars. Their existing stash of "old" dollars and accounts will be worthless. Call it "Fiat Counter-Terrorism".

On the domestic front, the process would involve a simple 1:1 paper money recall, involving a determined maximum amount of cash per person or household that would be eligible for recall/conversion. For people having excess cash, they would have to show records of where the cash came from to get it switched. This action would flush out the domestic underground "cash" economy, providing needed money for the cash-strapped states.

What would this type of event do for gold? I bet it wouldn't hurt to have some.

This, of course, is just idle speculation. But, I do imagine that something is going to have to "give" to accommodate the spending that the president's got planned.


Black BladeSpot and ACME Products#966962/4/03; 13:59:37

It appears that Spot has taken a lesson or two from Wile E. Coyote and bought a rocket pack from ACME products. Spot is launching upward again to new heights above $381 and rising. Very Nice - Beautiful Day indeed!

- Black Blade

BTW, that Cramer piece was classic. He pounds against drillers too. Is he in for a big surprise. NG prices are going to new highs soon enough amid declining production and no reserve replacement and his beloved techs, dot.coms, etc. will be dead and buried as the economy craters while pushed under further by rising energy costs. The chickens are coming home to roost!

AristotleHowdy, Daniel!#966972/4/03; 14:04:22

I'll join you in citing distaste for that artcle by JJ Cramer which you've kindly brought to our attention. Can you believe that rational people actually think like that???

I'll echo my same comments that I gave in review of another bogus piece of mainstream commentary... the short version is that there simply isn't enough room on the internet to accommodate the number of times I'd need to type the word "crap" to do it justice.

Forgive my disbelief, but did he REALLY say Gold is the 'anti-investment'???? Looking at it again, yes, there it is:

====="If gold goes up, stocks go down and they go down because gold is the "anti-investment."=====

Good heavens!! Now lemme see... whose agenda is he pressing, I wonder...

If we really *really* want to talk about "anti-investments" in the same light that Cramer is using here, we'd need to take a hard look at investments in the dollar and its bonds, wouldn't we?!! Let's think about it a minute. Wouldn't holdings of dollars and largely their bonds (which are merely another's promise to pay dollars) TRULY be the "anti-investment" under Cramer's line of thinking? But he can't go around saying THAT in public!! No, Gold isn't the "anti-investment," it's more like the "anti-dollar." Or put a better way, dollars (and bonds for the most part) are the anti-Gold, anti-investment, anti-stock, anti-reality, anti-life. To call it like it is, Cramer should mock those people who sit on their dollary piles of anti-matter!

Here's where life turns truly bizarre. Having said all of that about the dollar, I still like to get paychecks that are as big as possible! The more dollars for me, the better! Yes, dollars!! The situation rapidly makes sense again when you allow yourself to understand that I don't *HOLD* these dollar anti-investments any longer than I have to. I pay my bills, comtemplate a business investment or two, and then exchange the remainder of all dollars into Gold, yes Gold -- the Supreme Investment in my future. That's materially where the wealth of my productive efforts is concluded. Real goods for a real life. Because its real *real* REAL, it'll always be there, always Good as Gold, ready to spring into actionwith robust purchasing power if ever I need it to keep the wolf from my door.

Beg your pardon, Mr. Cramer, but a resounding NO!! to your opening quip, ""Gold's killing us." Quite to the contrary, Gold's best at keeping us ALIVE!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Black BladeSpot Defiying Gravity#966982/4/03; 14:05:57

Spot just rocketed over $382 and climbing! I definitely have to watch Krusty The Klown Kramer tonight.

- Black Blade

R PowellUSAGOLD // Impending chart failure !#966992/4/03; 14:11:57

Please be advised that the line representing the POG in your chart entitled "Spot Gold Trend" as viewed in post 96687 is in imminent danger. I fear that your chart parameters ranging from a low of 260 to a high of 380 are no longer sufficient to contain this aforementioned price line. Also, your upper channel line indicating resistence has been severely breached. It may be beyond repair. Please consult a technical analyst in regards to possible new support and resistence containment barriers.

Kinda brings to mind the neverending excavation that was necessary to accommodate the falling line on the old Ponzi chart.

To limit expansion costs on the chart, it is advisable to think big, namely, that a new chart ceiling of al least 500 may avoid the near future costs of repeatedly reconstructing the chart ceiling in the event that Gandalf raises POG too drastically.

Thank you for taking the time to consider my proposals.

cyberbatUp and Away11#967002/4/03; 14:21:03

Spikearo and spotty too have just went vertical. 382.10. Be thinking about what you are going to do tomorrow as the good ship of state walks to the podium. Talk about fireworks. The charts will look like a drunken sailor drew them. Hang, I said hang on to your hat and posterior tomorrow. As a gold bug, you are going to go where no gold bug has gone before. It may be pure bliss for only a flash but beam me up spotty; I'm in for the ride of my life!!
R PowellCNBC at 5:00#967012/4/03; 14:21:34

Ron Insana said earlier that the 5:00 segment of the peoples stock picking television channel will discuss/look at/examine commodities. Knowing their mindset that the only good moves are upside moves, maybe they'll be forced to talk about .... Maybe?
ElGordo@Rich#967022/4/03; 14:29:09$GOLD,uu[m,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G

Its a huge cup and handle formation for Gold.
Black BladeCNBC Interview With Pisani#967032/4/03; 14:30:11

Glamis Gold CEO Kevin McArthur rang the closing bell at the NYSE and was interviewed on the trading floor by CNBC's Bob Pisani. He said he's looking for Gold to rise to at least $500 an ounce on a weak dollar, debt, etc. Pisani didn't want to follow up on that but on Glamis mines.

- Black Blade

ElGordoGood, lets discuss commodities#967042/4/03; 14:34:45

Maybe they will show a chart like the one above.
TownCrierRPowell on my ad's meager TA#967052/4/03; 14:34:46


If I did it up as nicely as you proposed, there would surely be some fellows who would try to use it as inspiration to time their entry and exit from the futures arena.

Your good-natured comments are good proof that the current understatement is most effective in conveying the primary point to be made... that not only is there a long term upward trend, but that its channel has been blatantly breached to the upside. The sky is the limit. That is, until someone makes me corral the thing in a newer, shorter set of channel lines, ever chasing the thing that can't be caught.

On second thought, it CAN be caught. Call the friendly staff of brokers at USAGOLD-Centennial to find out how easy it can be done -- boxed tight and shipped to your door.


ElGordoI meant this CRB chart, sorry#967062/4/03; 14:40:48$CRB,uu[m,a]daclyyay[dd][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G

This is the right chart... ahem
WaveriderVIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT #967072/4/03; 14:41:10

How many ways can one say excellent!
VanRipPrechter's Advice??#967082/4/03; 14:48:24

I think someone here posted not too long ago that Prechter had advised his clients to short gold with a cover at 390. If so, there's some added sweating going on out there. If we hit 390, his followers should give gold a covering extra spurt to higher ground.
BelgianGOLD#967092/4/03; 15:27:06

Why should we pay attention to any new POG punter ? All the old and new goldprice-guessers, simply run constantly "behind" the precious's price moves and are, ohhh so creative in always finding fresh explanations and extrapolations / projections. Nobody ever seems to get bored with this.

A/FOA & Co, were the only ones who outlined the present, long before it was happening, and watch silently, how right they are. There is *NO* limit up anymore for the POG !
And yes, POG will pass 434$ > 500$ > 600$ > 850$...thousands of euro per ounce. Our great Gold-Mentors explained *** WHY ***. And nothing has changed since then.

The dollar is in the process of losing its grip on its own anti-thesis, GOLD ! The dollar will soon become very angry.
Quite a normal reaction when one ($) feels threathened.
Threathened from all sides and not in the least from its own overweight of destructive debt and systemic structure to dominate. The dollar's defense will not evolve, orderly.
There is no compromise possible anymore. The dollar is cornered. But cornered rats are dangerous. That element will dictate caution from the challenger's side.

It is PHYSICAL GOLD that is taking control of the dollar, now. FREE GOLD for a nice, future, flow of oil, unfortunately at the dollar's expense. Nothing for nothing.

Soon, after the fight, the dollar will accept this almost fait accomply and be part again of a more "just" world-society (economically and politically). A new basis for renewed expansive real growth, peace and prosperity. But not to be found around the corner, yet.

So far, the dollar-decline, runs within TA/TI bounderies.
The ABC -declining pattern from the 1985 ATH (now C-wave).
There is no floor in this LT-pattern ! As there is no ATH-target for the POG. Things have dramatically changed. Don't keep hanging on to the past as to possibly project the future. We are heading into uncharted territories !

Political events encounter many deadlocks. Mutations are natural phenomenons. Break loose from the daily, repetitive considerations and rely on the fundamental undertones (cross-currents). When the environments change, herds do walk on other trails, even unconsciously.

Gold's behavior will continue to confuse many observers who remain on the surface. Gold will keep on revaluing, whilst many keep on ranting. Sit back and take an eagle's view.

High time for Wealth-Conclusion ! So much existing wealth (X-TRILLIONS) cannot be concluded in 150,000 tonnes of aboveground Gold, priced at a few thousands of fiat-currency per ounce (1.4 trillion today).
The POG (FREE GOLD) cannot be pré-set, arbitrary, anymore.
Gold's old godfather, the dollar, has reached the end of its timeline. A dramatic phrase, extremely difficult to accept. Blame it on the unimaginable DEBT_LOAD ! Unerasable
exponentially growing Debt !
Debt that was purposely created by nothing else than the all-embracing paper-many. Too much Paper, virtual, prosperity, DAILY EVIDENCED, but arrogantly minimalized.

More and more, the ultimate "COMFORT" of Physical Gold in Possession will be experienced by more and more individuals, getting out of the past paper-fictions.
So simple, so easy and at the same time so difficult to accept and become part of it.

Good night from Euroland.

Cometose@ Aristotle and Daniel#967102/4/03; 15:48:38


This gives new meaning to "SOLD OUT MEDIA TROLL".

Perhaps , in addition to recieving this infamous distinction , it should also be added that this may be a sign that he sold his soul slave for the bangsters.

Reminds me of the people in the Little Mermaid who were transformed by the wicked SEA WITCH.... tough going out there maintaining one's integrity...I'm glad I didn't go to Harvard....He gives Harvard a bad name......

Black BladeSpot Is Hanging Tough#967112/4/03; 15:59:13

It is now up to Asia to carry the ball. At least now all the right people are getting depressed about Spot's new dose of energy. It reminds me of an old Saturday Night Live skit about "Puppy Uppers" vs. "Doggie Downers". Yeah, OK the country was just coming out of the Party Days of the 1960's and 1970's. Now Krusty The Klown and other gold haters are depressed. I remain "Significantly Bullish" on Gold as opposed to that other guy who has been "Significantly Bearish" since Gold at $255. The fundamentals for Gold are very strong even without the talk of war.

- Black Blade

Off to the gym!

CometoseCramer#967122/4/03; 16:23:59

His masters are getting rich as he lays out their counterintelligence.....

How long will they be able to keep the masses at bay?

hipltCRAMER#967132/4/03; 16:33:47

The last pearl of wisdom I was foolish enough to listen to from this intellectual giant was: "EMC is bulletproof at$40".
BILLYGWill Silver Kick in ?#967142/4/03; 17:02:03

Silver is close to the top of its recent trading range. Sure hope it can start rocking here. Looking at a 10-year chart it looks pretty flat. Can the silver stocks like Coeur d'Alene Mines ever return to profitability?
ElGordo@BILLYG#967152/4/03; 17:15:51

Silver just went to 4.95 ....lets see what happens

Daniel DruffKudlow & Cramer#967162/4/03; 17:44:12

The Greatest Show On Earth

Cometose (2/4/03; 16:23:59MT - msg#: 96712)
"His masters are getting rich as he lays out their counterintelligence.....

"How long will they be able to keep the masses at bay?"


Black Blade


I'm absolutely convinced that "Larry & Jimmy" are voices for the Official Sector or, as we usually hear, the Establishment. Mr. Kudlow never tires or reminding us that he was a senior staff guy in the Reagan Administration...the guy is connected, big time. And speaking of Big Time, Kudlow actually interviewed V.P. Cheney not too long ago. A Cheney Interview is a tough ticket.

We should suck it up and pay attention to these two infamous paper touts. Look at it as if you've got the enemies phone bugged.

I have a feeling that we're going to hear Jimmy screech a little bit about gold tonight. When his noise level is fairly constrained and he purces his lips when finshed, that's when he's trying to sell something and he's lying like a rug. I don't even e-mail these guys with complaints or insults. I look forward to their disinformation even more that there'e a guy with a hideous track record!

Cometose is right on the money. I would just keep smiling at the greatest show on the moment.

Thank you

AristotleDear Belgian#967172/4/03; 17:58:10


--- Ari

LeighRe: Lawrence Kudlow#967182/4/03; 18:03:24

I posted information about this video last summer and got no response. I thought the mention of Lawrence Kudlow was very intriguing.

"Red Gold Rising" (video)

A fascinating story about how Red China is using Swiss banks to launder gold just like Nazi Germany did before World War II, and for a similar purpose! What is that common purpose? The answer appears to be to generate laundered money to corrupt the American political system and thus assist their planned imperialism. This AI-TV program created a major stir in Hong Kong, becoming a major story in their press. It has even created a significant effect on the Hong Kong stock market!

In America, however, this story is being suppressed, the most reasonable explanation being the political allegiances of our journalists. See the story they do not want you to find out about. American Investigator follows the money and gold trail, and reveals which politicians in America are benefitting. Filled with info on how both the Nazi and Red Chinese gold operations work. Includes interviews with Wall Street expert Lawrence Kudlow, who sees significant danger to our financial markets in this scandal.

Not only is Red China using money to corrupt American politicians as the Nazis did before World War II, they are also using Wall Street to assist this operation. Famed Nazi-hunter Marty Mendelson is interviewed. He is mainly responsible for the recent scandal over Nazi gold by proving that the Swiss still had $2 billion worth of Nazi gold stolen from Jews. He also tells how he got some of it back to the victims.

Length 52 minutes.

LeighWaverider, megatron#967192/4/03; 18:09:05

Dear Waverider and megatron: Please forgive me for not getting back to you! I was THRILLED to get megatron's note on Sunday. But I've been completely distracted by an emergency in my extended family and haven't been able to reply. Megatron, it's great to see your name in print! I hope you know now that never once was I actually arguing or fighting with you - I was just having fun being sarcastic. I always thought of you as my buddy, and I have missed seeing you around. The reason I haven't posted lately is because I don't have the time or energy, and after almost four years I have less and less to say!

Waverider, HOW do you know megatron??? What a small world this is! We are all going to HAVE to get together sometime. Maybe it will be soon, since we're all about to get rich (maybe)!

R PowellTown Crier#967202/4/03; 18:15:51

I'm 99% sure that you took my attempt at humor at the expense of your chart as only that- humor. I meant no criticism or disrespect. Actually, the lines are correct, and the breakout above resistence is because the rise in POG is accelerating.
POG up again, +$4.00 in afterhours and OZ.
I have a notion that silver will not be restrained much longer. It may move very quickly. I hope so.

PCV1Elastic Charts#967212/4/03; 18:38:03

I certainly enjoyed R Powell's humour in his earlier post, it was well received and understood. POG up $5 now at kitco - perhaps the charts will need to refresh more often!

Thanks again to you at USA Gold for the best forum on the web! Hit that F5

TownCrierRich, make it 100%#967222/4/03; 18:38:49

Second paragraph: "Your good-natured comments..."


PizzMega- Terror Alert#967232/4/03; 18:53:08

Scrolled down a bit and hadn't seen anyone link to this, but Debka posted the article this afternoon.

Scary read, and can't be doing anything but help Au, as appears something is.

If this is old news, my apolgy.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Ally yourself with a gold broker that is knowledgeable and also cares...#967242/4/03; 19:01:20


In the September 2000 issue of News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals' founder and proprietor Michael Kosares said:

"[M]uch of this issue is devoted to oil, inflation, international politics and gold. . . . . Though the dollar continued to rise against most international currencies during the past month, most currencies ( including the dollar) were depreciating against real goods. . . . AND IT IS THE TREND THAT HAS ECONOMISTS CONCERNED. Crude oil, which must be purchased with dollars, is being blamed as the chief culprit. When the dollar price of oil rises, it fans the inflationary fires of nearly every nation in the world. All of this could at some point inspire a dollar rebellion among the nations of the world, with both oil producers and oil consumers capable of finding fault with the dollar simultaneously . . . . In such a case gold, of course, would become one of the primary beneficiaries and the dollar could go into a tailspin."

ABCs bookTake note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:

1. They averted disaster in the stock market.

2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.

News & Views is available to our clientele only. However, the latest issue is just back from the printer and available to prospective gold investors who request an INFORMATION PACKET on one-time only basis. We invite your request.

If you would like to get a feel for the thinking that forms the basis for market conclusions like the one featured above, take advantage of the offer to include THE ABCs of GOLD INVESTING: PROTECTING YOUR WEALTH THROUGH PRIVATE GOLD OWNERSHIP. A prompt with ordering information will come up after you submit your request for the INFORMATION PACKET.

Dollar BillPrudent Bear#967252/4/03; 19:02:04

What the American economy today is facing is not simply a banking crisis as was the case in earlier instances of profound financial fragility. The expansion of credit in this cycle has occurred largely outside the banking system. Given the leverage and contingent liabilities of the major money center banks, the banks in isolation are currently not well equipped to pick up the vast liabilities of the new and now dominant securitized debt finance markets. What is being contemplated by the monetary authorities today is much bigger. That we are in this state is really a product of the Fed's own abdication of responsibility under the convenient guise of the "efficient market" hypothesis.

The US central bank thought by letting markets continually price risk, rather than letting commercial bankers and their loan committees bury friendly loans, the financial system would be more efficient. The Fed thought that by separating the payments and settlements system of banks from much of the credit risk of corporate and consumer lending, they would prevent contagion effects. They failed to see the moral hazard this engendered, magnified by the equity bubble dynamics they openly encouraged and perpetuated. They failed to understand that while one bomb disbursed through a hundred pension and insurance portfolios would have a muted effect, that very fact would mean a thousand bombs got planted in pension and insurance portfolios. Especially when the enhanced liquidity of loans once transformed into traded and diversified structured finance vehicles meant no incentive existed, and no means existed, for due diligence on any one loan.

Now the credit default bombs are going off. And the equity bubble is irretrievably blown. So the Fed will have to enter as lender of last resort, but this time around, as lender to a new set of agents, those central to the structured finance scheme. Via the PBGC, the Fed is likely to become lender of last resort to corporate pension funds that are severely under-funded to the point *******the firms are about to be claimed by the workers.****** This parallels the Fed's role in the S&L bail out via FSLIC, but it is substantially larger by a multi-fold number.

Daniel DruffTonight's Kudlow & Cramer on CNBC#967262/4/03; 19:05:11

Skip it

No disparaging Gold Talk...the silence was deafening, especially after Jimmy's bit earlier today.
ElGordoOrwellian numbers out of China#967272/4/03; 19:09:50

Beijing, Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- China's 8 percent economic growth rate last year was among the fastest in the world. That wasn't good enough for the country's local governments: They all said their own growth was even faster.

Flouting the law of averages, China's 31 provinces and municipalities each reported 2002 growth rates higher than the central government's figure for the whole country, according to data from local government Web sites and state media reports.

The conflicting numbers highlight doubts about the accuracy of information supplied by China's government, including world- beating economic growth. Some analysts say China's real growth could be less than half the official rate as provincial officials inflate their own economic success to win promotions.
China also has a bad loan problem in their banking system. Some think over 50% of bank loans are non performing. If I were in
China I'd like to buy some gold and silver as well.
Its time for silver to make a run at $5+
Go Silver!

ElGordoJapan : New Bankruptcy filing record#967282/4/03; 19:32:04

Record 214,000 Japanese File Bankruptcy
Associated Press

TOKYO - A record 214,000 Japanese individuals filed for bankruptcy last year as the nation continued to struggle with its now chronic economic slump, Japan's top court said Tuesday.

A total of 214,634 Japanese filed for bankruptcy nationwide in 2002, up 33.8 percent from 160,457 the previous year, Supreme Court spokesman Isao Umezawa said.

Personal bankruptcies in Japan have been on the rise amid increasing corporate failures, restructuring and pay cuts.

Japan's unemployment rate remains at record high levels, and a government study late last year found that about half of the unemployed had no income.

silvercollectorJust the facts...the cold, sober facts#967292/4/03; 19:32:52

21mabrykinross#967302/4/03; 19:37:23

If someone could explain what happened to me here i would be grateful.Just looked at my ameritrade account,bema and kinross merged i take it.Well i now have way less shares of new company as my bema shares were sold off and i think i have less equity,and ameritrade charged me for the reorginization,can someone help me out here
Kagalaskakinross bema amritrade#967312/4/03; 20:00:44

Sorry to here about your conundrum. I can provide nothing substantive towards your quest for info, except this get PHYSICAL in hand ASAP. This type of shinanigan will soon be the norm for the PM market. we have seen numerous examples of the sharks feeding of the next bubble TECH ect befor the feeder fish wake up and disperse. You got enroned hope it did'nt hurt too bad. Divest NOW and call the boys at CMP/USAGold they will set you right.BE the master of your own destiny.Semper-Fi
Daniel DruffSilver#967322/4/03; 20:03:25

How much silver is used up annually in photography? Is there a 10 year average available?

How much of an over supply - carry over from 2002 - would there be if the use of silver in making film were to have ceased all together?

Thank you

ElGordoWashington issues grim warning on N Korea#967332/4/03; 20:08:30

Mr Armitage conceded that North Korea was a worse proliferator than Iraq, selling missiles to Yemen, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt "and other places". The US also had "suspicions" that North Korea had spread nuclear weapons technology, indicating that Pakistan and Libya might have benefited.
FT article, good read

Chris PowellKinross' merger and reverse stock split#967342/4/03; 20:17:04

21Mabry, Kinross merged last week with TVX Gold
and Echo Bay Mining and undertook a 3-for-1
reverse stock split. While you have one third fewer
shares, their total value is, today, substantially
higher than it was on Friday. A big part of that
gain is the gold price rise since Friday. But part
of that is the reverse split's lifting Kinross' share
price from $2.40 or so last week to more than
$7. By surpassing $5, Kinross shares become
marginable at most brokerage houses -- that
is, people can borrow to buy them and borrow
against them. Marginability will greatly increase
the attractiveness of Kinross shares. Further,
the company is said to be among the top four
or five in the world in leverage to the gold price.
It seems to have topped the list of gold share
gainers today -- probably for all these reasons

Genoospot vs gold stocks#967352/4/03; 20:19:55

Gold stocks have always traded at a premium to spot have they not. Well what about that NAV fans might know better, but I would guess gold stocks today are trading at a max of $350 other words gold stocks are actually trailing the price of spot gold by $30+ as of today...and I suppose the only logical conclusion to this unusual arrangement is that the 'masses' are unsure of the ability to maintain the price/expecting a 'correction' in the price of spot.

Well guess isn't going to happen to any significant degree. If spot does take a breather... it will MAYBEE be to $350...BUT I DON'T THINK SO.

With WAR in the backgound as a 'bonus', and putting aside for a minute the facts of the collapsing US dollar, the collapsing US economy, the threat of global deflation, all forms of debt now being reported at the max...would not the citizen of average intelligence be furtively running to the only investment representing safety and the preservation of capital????.....and I do mean the mellow yellow....

I say.....Look out above especially for intermediate and some of the junior gold stocks.

21mabrykinross#967362/4/03; 20:27:10

THNX,CHRIS POWELL,you are correct it was my echo bay not my bema'so i take it from your post this is to my advantage.Is consolidation like this something we can expect,and as investors do we want this.thnx again 21 mabry
Humble PieBelgian Post #96709#967372/4/03; 20:28:07

"the profit in life is paid in the homor never received, for respect has no price higher than when truth is displayed for free"
Humble PieBelgian Post 396709 #967382/4/03; 20:41:28

" the profit in life is paid in the honor never received, for respect has no price higher than when truth is displayed for free" /FOA 5/26/99 Msg ID:6766
WaveriderGaaaaaandaaaaaaalf.....#967392/4/03; 21:08:38


Could you KINDLY teach Spot 'n Spike some discipline ;o) They are making such a rucous running around the neigborhood BITING shorts that it's almost impossible to concentrate on my work. Please! :):)

Leigh - yes, Megatron is a friend, his wife is a work colleague and friend of mine. In fact it was Megatron who introduced me to this forum, and I too miss his presence here. I know he appreciates your words of support. Hope all is well with your extended family. And YES...I too look forward to the PARTY of all PARTIES!!

Gandalf the WhiteSORRY ALL ! I just returned from taking my wife out to dinner !#967402/4/03; 21:13:31

Twas the #42 WA !! not to be confuzzed with the OTHER WA !!
BUT, SPIKE AND SPOT were left alone and ....have been GOING WILD ......and I see that $386. "barrier" has now been overcome !!

PizzNon-Confirmating PM shares?#967412/4/03; 21:20:21

PM shares have not been confirming - leading as of late,
but based upon the technicals of the PM shares, they appear to be ready for a 2 to 3 week run up.

So where and how high does anyone think spot is going to go?

James Turk's number of in the 435 range starting to look light -

Shares are set up for a run, spot's figured out how to climb the tree to catch the short cats. Unfortunately, this action is not discounting a short 1 week war.

Can't have everything, but I'll settle for a fair market price for my bulliion - and we're not close yet. . . .

Our patience is our virtue - hang in there all, going to be a great ride. . .


CaradocVarious thoughts#967422/4/03; 21:21:31

With spot up over $7 tonight, various thoughts come to mind....

It's starting to look like the long-submerged basketball has been released from the deep end of the pool. If so, the "pop" will be an event to remember. Those doing TA see a "cup and handle" formation in the offing which virtually demands that POG test $400. With a TA mindset, they'll be expecting a "handle" to form at/near the $400 mark as human nature kicks in ("Hey, it's back up to $400 so I can sell and get my money back!"); and they expect to ponder the "handle" for days or weeks to see whether it drops below some moving average or takes off from there. Well, the TA guys are in for a surprise. Totally apart from a war in the offing, worldwide movement away from the dollar and towards gold should take us past $400 with no more resistance than we saw earlier today at $378 (another official resistance point). For one thing, a lot of those who held on from the previous $400 level are true believers who won't jump at the chance to get back their original $400. For another, today's buyers in China weren't even allowed to play the last time gold was at $400.

My crystal ball (which was already wrong last month!) says we pass the $400 mark shortly after lunchtime on Thursday, the day after tomorrow. Mainstream investors will be joining us between $400 and $600. After that, things start to get foggy but I wouldn't bet against $750 before the end of February.

Caradoc(No Subject)#967432/4/03; 21:26:57

No, make that up $7.40. No, make it $8.00. Wherever spot ends up tonight, it looks like we're in for daily increases measured in double-digit dollars.
Trojan@ Daniel Druff Puplova Commentary for Feb 4#967442/4/03; 21:35:51

In his commentary Wrap Up for February 4TH, he has a fair bit of information on Silver.

Hope you find it interesting.

Noble1Sir MK#967452/4/03; 21:48:52

In celebration of the Lunar New Year and in light of recent interest and happenings, would you entertain the thought of a general amnesty for those posters who may have been previously admonished? Of course, a short string would be in order.


Remember: History has shown that gold has always been a prized possession.

Black BladeGold Market Wrap Up – Puplava - Worth Reading!#967472/4/03; 21:55:40


there is another element here that isn't discussed as widely in financial circles, and that is gold, once again, is reverting back towards its historical role as real money. In addition, it is also assuming its role as a safe haven and refuge in times of crises. In the last decade whenever a financial crises or geopolitical crises would erupt, investors headed for the dollar. Throughout the 1990s, from the peso crisis in 1994, the Asian crisis in 1997, LTCM and Russia in 1998, Y2K in 1999, to the recession and terrorist attacks of 9-11, the dollar supplanted gold as a refuge of safety providing shelter from the storm. Now the dollar is in a freefall, and this time around investors are putting their money into precious metals, gold, silver, and platinum.

The prices of all three precious metals are rising in response to each new financial or political crisis that erupts. It is also not just a freak occurrence here in the US; it is becoming a global phenomenon. Gold is rising against all major currencies around the globe. It started in Asia where after a decade of deflation and multiple recessions, Japanese investors are pulling their money out of banks and buying bullion. It just isn't investors here in the US, or anyone country in particular; it is everywhere from Latin America, North America, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. This can be viewed from the world gold indices taken from our gold site. Gold is becoming money again and silver will shortly follow with a more explosive upside.

Black Blade: It is quite a comprehensive overview of the Precious Metals market and the fundamental case for precious metals. There is much more than I can discuss in a short paragraph here – just click the link and read for yourselves. That said, the price rise in the PMs is partly war premium but as the Wall Street touts say – "it is already factored into the price". The reason the metals are rising is the falling dollar, greater demand than supply, declining production, falling equities markets and a Secular BEAR MARKET that will last for years, and rising energy costs that will last for years (especially NatGas and electricity – not necessarily oil). The US dollar has simply lost its edge as a store of value and the recent Japanese intervention is nothing short of foolishness throwing Yen into a sucking black hole. The Japanese see through this and see their lives are about to change forever – not for the better. So they prefer to draw out what savings they have left and buy PMs and any other hard asset before the flurry of worthless Yen ala Weimar Republic flows from the BOJ. The Chinese are waiting in lines at retailers to liberate Gold as soon as it hits the shelves (even at higher prices) and Indians must have Gold for Wedding Season so they will buy regardless, not to mention that middle class Indians are buying bullion for investment. Ya just gotta know that the shorts are shaking in their booties. Lines of defense are crumbling as the tactical retreat of the shorts, bankers, and investment houses is turning into a rout. So far it has been very entertaining to watch.

21mabrycramer#967482/4/03; 21:55:59

If anyone wants to you can listen to cramers show on has no shame he pedaled all those crash and burn tech stocks,now he acts like he was lied to by companies he recommended.Well if thats the case he was a crappy fund manager its the job of the fund manager to know the companies he is buying,thats his job,now cramer acts like he is for the little guy.He is a TOOL of the establishment monied elite who caused all this,his book makes me sick too.
physicalmantitle fight#967492/4/03; 21:56:24

Round 1 Gold 415.00, silver 5.12 shorts worried, financial news anchors mocking the "barbaric relics"
Round 2 Gold 481.00, silver 5.50 shorts trying to cover, FN anchors begging for war to start so premium will come out of market
Round 3 Gold 674.00, silver 9.01 shorts all dead and graves being desecrated by angry investors, Few surviving FN anchors, all unemployed, selling apples and pencils on street corners.
Can't help ya'll with rounds 4 to 15. Will go the distance, believe with a unaminous decision on our side though. Remember its a title fight, get physical!

physicalmanspreads#967502/4/03; 22:02:30

Spot and Spike are working hard. If i was close would feed um some veal cutlets with my grandma's good brown gravy!
Note: the spread on silver and gold now is at 78/1 which i think is the high since the 1950's

Daniel DruffTrojan#967512/4/03; 22:13:25


Thank you...and what a night for Au
Black BladePimco's Gross Says Dollar Fall Shows Economic Frailty #967522/4/03; 22:13:56


Newport Beach, California, Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The weaker dollar is a signal the U.S. may lose its status as the world's chief magnet for investment and an ``economic powerhouse,'' said Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund. The cost of an extended defense against terrorist threats has combined with the past stock market bubble, high personal debt, and a large trade deficit to leave the U.S. economy and its currency vulnerable when foreigners decide to withhold investment, Gross said on Pacific Investment Management Co.'s Web site. ``Foreigners have and will continue to sell the dollar and U.S. investments in fear of guns-and-butter bills to come,'' Gross wrote. ``Because of 9/11 and our necessity to fight a new kind of war, America is losing its peace dividend at a time when'' it can't afford to, he wrote. ``The end to the strong dollar is but the most visible reversal of U.S. hegemonic policies in recent months,'' Gross wrote. ``I'm not so sure that we are, or perhaps will be the economic powerhouse we once were.''

Black Blade: Amen to that!

sectorAt the PM Fix it was still in control, right on the regression line#967532/4/03; 22:21:45

but now...At $387...

...the cartel may have lost it altogether. Or they may be letting it go with the "War" as an excuse. Well, the "War" IS a bit late and if the French take a latte and veto... well...could they still start a war? With all those AK-47 toting kids running around Baghdad and Basra?

Anglogold has to cover 320 tonnes of hedges. The others over 2,000 tonnes. And then there's Barrick. And AIG[There short too]...who got bombed today for -10%.

Forget the bullion banks like JPM, they don't care. They got their gold for free, just ask William Harrison, off the record of course.

Will the shares catch tomorrow? Maybe yes, maybe no. There seems to be an unlimited capacity for denial in the gold market. Then there's the gold funds waiting for a "Pull-back". The "Pull-back" will be to $400 after reaching $425.

The thing is going up. The thing is not going down. Get used to it.

The R^2 values on the PM Fix since Dec4th are over .93. THAT is a straight line. But the line will be steeper tomorrow. And maybe steeper the next day. The Dec 2003 intercept of that line is $630, tomorrow it may be $700. The "Line" ignores the war. If there is to be one.

They are capitulating for lack of metal to sell. Their once-great "Coalition" of central bank sellers with a never-ending rain of propagandist [Kudlow and Cramer] lies is a bit light these days. Their gold supply is a tad thin. "Gold is killing us", Cramer 2/4/2003.

He doesn't know what "Killing IS".

Pasts $400 Past $500 Cramer will only BEGIN to get a hint of what a killing is. The dollar is headed to 65 by December 2003. R^2 of .95. Wall Street will be incinerated.

Silver, on the other hand, has a secret official seller now that the defense silver stockpile has been sold. Who could that seller be? BTW Warren is rumored to be buying again. Just a rumor.

It's Mexico, by deduction. Will Vincente Fox keep going?

At some point it's everyman for himself. If Vincente thinks he can get $15 per ounce, he'll move. Or maybe Warren can outbid Bush.

WaveriderGold Surge Heralds Stagflation#967542/4/03; 22:25:10

0942 [Dow Jones] Gold's surge to multi-year highs signals Greenspan era of stable, falling U.S. inflation over, new era similar to 1970s stagflation has started, says Deutsche Bank's Kenneth Landon; "the plunge in the value of the dollar relative to gold is the biggest monetary story of the past two decades." Still tips USD/JPY at 110 by midyear; dismisses Japan MOF yen-selling intervention as "just a side show...compared to the important factors driving the value of the dollar." (AXS)

Waverider: Interesting Yahoo headline and newsnip considering the noise in the media at the moment regarding the "war premium"...and from the DeutscheBank!

Black BladePimco's Gross warns of dire times #967552/4/03; 22:26:53


"Many of us will have to adjust, either in the form of higher unemployment, an increased price for imported goods, or heavier indirect taxes in the form of higher inflation and interest rates," he said. "Investment strategies, both bond and equity, should put these secular reversals at the top of their 'A' list when considering opportunities to make relative and absolute returns." Gross also made waves last September when he said 5,000 was fair value for the Dow Jones industrial average. The index closed Monday at 8,109.82, 62 percent above that figure. In his commentary, Gross continued that U.S. hegemony has been based since the 1930s on military domination and a superior economy, until recently reflected in a strong U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, he said the United States is at times pursuing more restrictive trade policies, which might invite retaliation by other countries. The U.S. trade deficit widened in November to a record $40.1 billion, Commerce Department data show. As a result of the changes, Gross said, non-U.S. investors might pull more money out of the country. "Foreigners have and will continue to sell the dollar and U.S. investments in fear of guns and butter bills to come," he said. "America," he added, "will attempt to preserve its hegemony by biasing, and in some cases reversing, free trade and open financial market policies that do not favor the U.S. All of this implies that our peace dividend, not only in the terms of lower defense expenditures, but U.S. domination of (and benefits from) free capital markets and free trade, are nearing an end."

Black Blade: I have to agree with most of Gross's assessment. And the primates on Wall Street think that the rise of PM prices is due to "war jitters"? Hmmm…

As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt (though if you haven't by now it's likely too late), stash enough emergency cash to meet several months’ expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program. As I stated about a month ago, I would be more likely to accumulate physical PMs over shares at this point. Indeed, physical PMs outperformed shares for the last several weeks and may continue to do so for the near term. But the physical is your insurance position and shares are for trading. I would err on the side of getting fully insured for now.

Black BladeJob cut announcements jump #967562/4/03; 22:41:20

Firms note plans to cut 132,222 jobs in January, a 42% increase from December, according to report.


In the latest sign of a still-wobbly U.S. labor market, companies said they intended to slash 132,222 jobs from their payrolls last month, a 42 percent jump from the 92,917 planned layoffs announced in December, employment research firm Challenger Gray & Christmas said. "Even if businesses were in a position to hire, many would probably delay such action in light of the uncertainty surrounding Iraq," said John Challenger, chief executive of Challenger Gray. A conflict in Iraq would have a dramatic impact on U.S. businesses, affecting everything from the price of oil and fuel to the ability to transport goods and services overseas, the report said.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows and will continue to grow. The staggering increase in lay off announcements is only the beginning and of course no one is mentioning that there are several thousand who are called up into the Reserves and National Guard who are not working at their "day job". "Interesting Times"

TopazBelgian.#967572/4/03; 22:49:27

A US$ is as good as.....Mike Tyson...until a Lennox Lewis comes along.
I probably feel the same way toward Mike as I do the Dollar...they're both hard to like, but I LOVE to watch them FIGHT!
Certainly didn't expect to see PGold as high as it is tonight Sir B, thought it would "hover" awhile around $370...most surprising too is the disdain it's currently showing the DI...(sector WOULD be pleased!)
To paraphrase Kashogi...The Papergold market won't fail for lack of Paper.
Interesting developments...tread warily Sir B....and congrats on your #96709.

Gandalf the WhiteWOWSERS !!! FROM WHERE did that PAPER AVALAMCNE come ? #967582/4/03; 23:00:24

KNOCKED SPOT back $5 !
OK, SPOT, you know what to do with that PAPER !
Relax a while and then BITE 'em AGAIN !!
"SOMEONE" must be a "little WORRIED", Ay ?

Gandalf the WhiteROFL#967592/4/03; 23:01:42

SO excited that I could not spell --- "Avalanche"

GoldendomeGold in Tough times#967602/4/03; 23:04:51

foreign investors are even more discouraged with their own economies than they are with America's. German shoppers have "stopped spending," says the BBC. Wages in Japan are falling...along with employment. European manufacturing is down for the 5th month in a row.

*** Investors who cannot stomach either U.S. equities or foreign ones are turning to gold. The yellow metal has a great advantage in tough times. Managed by no cannot be mismanaged. Nor does it lie to creditors...or go broke in a crisis. And unlike Bernanke's dollar, it cannot be inflated away when the managers feel the urge.

Bill Bonner---Daily Reckoning

ElGordoTOCOM breaks record again, Ozzies out of drills#967612/4/03; 23:16:12

"This morning we tried to hire a diamond-tipped drill but were told there was none available," said Ron Manners, chairman of Croesus Mining NL (Australia:CRS.AX - News), Australia's third-biggest gold producer.

"Such a thing was unheard of until now."

Spot gold (XAU=) was bid as high as $386.75 an ounce in early afternoon trade as investors piled into a metal known as a sure bet in troubled times.

It was fetching $385.50/386.25 at 0520 GMT, compared with $379.50 last quoted in New York.

Bullion has gained 13 percent since the start of the year, bolstered by fears of a U.S.-led attack on Iraq and jitters over North Korea's nuclear ambitions.

Rising oil prices, slumping stocks and a weak dollar have added fire to a rally fuelled by heavy speculative buying in Japan.

"It's definitely a flight to safety," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia commodities strategist David Thurtell. "If I were long, I'd be hanging on. Maybe not buying at this price, but not selling either."

North Korea said on Wednesday it would take "stronger self-defensive measures" in response to proposals to beef up U.S. forces in the Pacific region as a deterrent to the communist state in the event of war in Iraq.

Meanwhile, chief U.N. arms inspector Hans Blix warned it was "five minutes to midnight" as he urged Iraq to show it was cooperating with officials charged with hunting banned weapons.

Colin Powell is due to appear before the U.N. Security Council at 1530 GMT.


Japanese investors continued to shovel money into gold futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), sending contracts to 10-½ year highs in record-breaking trade.

The most-active December gold contract (JAUZ3) was up 28 yen in mid-afternoon at 1,489 yen per gram, a level not seen since August 1992.

Turnover hit unprecedented volumes, with trade in the December contract alone topping 350,000 lots, or 350 tonnes.

That compared with a total of 294,510 lots for all six gold contracts traded during Tuesday's full-day session.

Brokers strained to remember the last time TOCOM was so frantic, with activity dwarfing even the stampede seen last February when fears of a financial meltdown sent Japanese running for the shelter of safe-haven assets.

Osamu Ikeda, general manager of precious metals at Japan's biggest bullion house, Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K., said ordinary Japanese were turning up in droves to buy gold bars and coins.

"We're also seeing just as many sellers," he said. "People who bought back in 1999 when gold prices hit a low of 917 yen per gram are taking advantage of the high price."

Tanaka Kikinzoku said its bullion sales for investment purposes soared 54 percent in calendar 2002 as investors funneled money to gold from stocks and other assets.


Traders said gold was now eyeing $390, although fears remained of a looming correction given the mountain of speculative long positions built up over recent weeks.

"People have been saying it's overbought for $20, but it's still going up," said Greg Fan, senior dealer at NM Rothschild in Hong Kong.

"It's better just to go with the flow. We haven't seen these price levels for so many years, so where you see good resistance is anyone's guess."

Shares in Sumitomo Metal Mining Co Ltd (Tokyo:5713.T - News), Japan's biggest gold producer, were up 3.26 percent in mid-afternoon at 475 yen.

The excitement spilled over into other precious metals, with silver (XAG=) surging to a six-month high of $4.95/97 an ounce.

Platinum (XPT=), fetching $689/694 an ounce at 0530 GMT, was hovering within sight of 23-year highs hit last week amid supply fears and forecasts of greater fuel-call demand. (Additional reporting by James Regan in Sydney)

TopazT-Bonds#967622/4/03; 23:16:49

Solid showing in Bonds against a weakening Dollar...and Gold strength.
4.65% on the 30 Yr will be tested shortly...previous triple bottom...just prior to 50bp rate-cut "mid-meeting" I might add.

Seen on a placard outside UN HQ NY:-
"how did OUR oil get under THEIR sand?" ...HA!

Black BladeOpec plans oil production cuts#967632/4/03; 23:21:58


The president of the oil producers organisation Opec has said that supplies from most of the group's members might be cut when the organisation meets next month. Abdullah al Attiyah, who is also the oil minister of Qatar, that there could be a three million barrel a day glut in the near future. Opec's planning has been disrupted for the past two months by a strike in the oil fields of Venezuela, the group's third largest supplier. In addition, the oil market is approaching a time of the year when demand is relatively weak - when the northern hemisphere winter ends but before the summer motoring season gets underway. Opec officials fear the result of these two developments could be excess supplies and a price crash. So several of them, including the group's president, have been suggesting that cuts in production quota are likely when they are discussed at a meeting next month.

Black Blade: Venezuelan production will not likely recover to pre-strike levels as lower reservoir pressures during the shutdown has effectively permanently eliminated marginal wells from the production picture. Russia is now encountering delivery problems. Should Saddam spark off his wells in a scorched earth policy that will remove another significant portion of oil production. However, the big story in US hydrocarbon energy remains the decline of NG supply and production.

otish mountain(No Subject)#967652/5/03; 00:48:38

Just a note of thanks to Black Blade & Boilermaker on input of the current feelings on coal. I have a hunch coal will once again be our primary source of hydrocarbons in the not to distant future.

Belgian- your post #96709 well said. Another & FOA postings starting way back in 1997 said it all. We witness today the unfolding of events which to me were hard to grasp then, when they where first mentioned. I constantly re-read Thoughts & the Gold Trail and try to grasp further meanings,
there is so much hidden in these writings.

"A world waits for something to happen that is done"
ANOTHER(THOUGHTS) Nov.23rd 1997 09:18

WaveriderEpic: Guidelines for Forum Posting #967662/5/03; 00:48:57

4. Promotional posts in general.
Examples include promotion of your organization, yourself (includes posting e-mail addresses), a company you work for or invest in, and promotion of internet sites and businesses that compete directly with USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals

Waverider: Actually no Epic, this is not a stock-talk forum so this content is not welcome here. I have included the link here to review the posting guidelines which our gracious host has clearly outlined. Please respect them.

TownCrierThe big question on gold... Have you already missed the boat?#967672/5/03; 00:56:09

Food for thought.

An old friend of mine tracked me down while he was passing through town on business. Among other things he wanted to pick my brain for my latest thoughts on gold. He listened and liked what he heard. Then he informed me that he'd be a buyer as soon as gold climbed to $400/ounce.

How about that. Some folks are waiting, hoping for a retracement to buy gold at lower prices if opportunity allows it, while other folks are waiting to buy when gold shows "indomitability" through higher prices.

Different strokes for different folks. It would seem that you have only missed the boat if you choose not to board at all at any price.

More food for thought. Take a look at a gold price graph for the past 30 years, and take a look also at the DJIA over a similar time period. Which one do you think is more likely to simply double sooner than the other from its current level? Gold is on an uptrend, and $760 levels have been familiar territory even in a younger world less burdened with a flood of loose paper; meanwhile, the DOW is on a downtrend in which a double to the ozone at 16,000 seems only doable in a flight of fancy.

The boat is afloat on the high sea. 'Board it when you will' is all I can say.


Paper AvalancheBreaking the weekly trend.....#967682/5/03; 00:56:19

Today marked the end of a fairly recent weekly trend that I began to notice a few months back. On average, and based on my perception (I have no data to support this), I began to expect the following price action based on the day of the week:

Monday - flat to slightly down
Tuesday - spiked down
Wednesday - modest recovery but limited at the close
Thursday - modest gain
Friday - surprise gain in the last few hours of trading

Today is the first Tuesday that I can remember where the price action was so volatile to the upside. I believe that POG will hit $400 by lunch time Thursday and will close just under $410 Friday afternoon.

I may be wrong. I often am.


TownCrierEpic's 96764 stock picks...#967692/5/03; 01:05:32

Done and done.

The focused purpose of the forum is for discussion of the role of gold coins and bullion in diversifying a portfolio against the realities of today's economic headlines. Promotion of gold stocks is a topic to be pursued elsewhere so as not to dilute the focus here on gold itself.

After all, if we don't focus on gold and related monetary economics here, where else is it going to be done?

Experience shows that once stocks start to be discussed, the general level of discussion quickly deteriorates from fundamental economic considerations into superficial snapshots of alphabet soup -- i.e., a litany of everyone's pet ticker symbols, AU, SYM, BOL, GLD, STX, etc...


TownCrierGLOBAL MARKETS-Gold soars, dollar cagey as Powell speech looms#967702/5/03; 01:23:04

SINGAPORE, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Worries that U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's speech on Iraq could be a harbinger of war sent gold soaring to a six-and-a-half year high on Wednesday as investors piled into the traditional safe haven.

Gold, long used as a hedge against financial strife, has gained more than 12 percent since the start of the year...

[meanwhile...] The dollar has fallen some 3.7 percent against the euro and 2.56 percent against the Swiss franc since the beginning of the year...

--------(article at url)-------

Gold up 12% while dollar down only 3-ish. The metal has gained purchasing power above and beyond mere compensation for a shrinking dollar. Happily, this phenomenon is to be expected -- all things considered. Call USAGOLD-Centennial today to stake your claim in a nicely diversified portfolio.


Black BladeEuropean Markets Start Off Negative#967712/5/03; 01:31:36

Euro markets are following up yesterday's drubbing with another negative start today. Asia was mixed with the Nikkei squeaking out a slight gain while the other markets fell lower. BTW, the USD is back down sub 99.

- Black Blade

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Assistance for international clients . . .#967722/5/03; 01:41:50

From New Zealand to the Netherlands, from Australia to Austria, from the British Isles to the Great White North, we offer the service you want and the professionalism you need.

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Black BladeSpot Getting Frisky #967732/5/03; 01:53:25

Now up $386.30 in London trade on a nice sharp spike.

- Black Blade

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...#967742/5/03; 01:59:45

Q. What is the best approach for the safe-haven investor?

MK. If you want to protect yourself against inflation, deflation, stock market weakness and potential currency problems -- in other words, if an economic disaster is your concern, there is only one portfolio item that will serve you in all seasons and under most circumstances -- gold coins or bullion.

Q. In recent years, we have seen a large number of gold dealers proliferate on the internet. What do you have to say about that?

MK. The internet offers an interesting challenge for the gold buyer. Fly-by-night firms are as big a problem in the gold business as they are in other areas of the investment business. One major problem at the moment are all the one-man-do-it-from-your-basement internet operations that have cropped up in the last few years. How does one know that the individual with whom you are dealing in these situations is legit? We've even heard of instances where some of these people actually have criminal records or have had past problems with regulatory authorities -- like the Federal Trade Commission or the Securities and Exchange Commission. After all, what does it take to go on-line with a website? Anyone can do it. It's up to the consumer to do their due-diligence before doing business with these operations.

Q. Any comments about your own internet presence?

MK. First and foremost, USAGOLD / Centennial has always been a brick-and-mortar brokerage headquartered in secure and professional office space here in Denver, Colorado. In function our own website is just a readily-available extension of our advertising and marketing programs. The USAGOLD website further gives us the opportunity to easily provide our clientele with timely market information and commentary.

Black BladeTOCOM gold storms higher in record-breaking trade#967752/5/03; 02:10:46


TOKYO, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Tokyo gold futures rushed to 10-½ year highs in record-breaking trade on Wednesday as nervous investors shoveled money into the traditional safe haven. Hours before a speech by U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell that many see as a prelude to war in Iraq, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange logged its busiest-ever session as speculators piled into gold and energy futures. Gold turnover was estimated at a staggering 524,674 lots or 524 tonnes, up from Tuesday's 294,510 lots. Turnover for the benchmark December contract alone was a jaw-dropping 397,714 lots.

Black Blade: War in Iraq and rumblings from North Korea maybe, but add in a weak US dollar against an even weaker Yen amid a nation mired in deflation, an insolvent banking sector, a government hell bent on scuttling its currency, a stock market set on self destruct, rising energy costs, etc. and of course Japanese are going to run scared looking for Gold, Silver, and Platinum or any hard asset to grab a hold of. The Japanese economy is a basket case and the people know it.

Black BladeShe's Gonna Breach $390 #967762/5/03; 02:15:07

Spot is currently at $388.70 and going straight up. All afterburners are glowing now. Could make $390 before the night is over.

- Black Blade

The Invisible HandOle, ole, ole, we are the champions!#967772/5/03; 02:23:08

We're gonna win the (golden) cup (fool of beer)!
RocketmanOh happy day!!!!#967782/5/03; 02:30:37

What a wonderful night!!

My joy is only tempered by the knowledge of the pain which is comming to those who have not heeded the warnings posted here for the past number of years.

For those with their retirment savings in mutual funds I would like to proclaim a moment of silence. For the older folks who saved all their lives and invested their life saving in "safe" instruments, I weep. Indeed wealth is being destroyed tonight as the USD is unclothed. Its nakeness is laid bare for all to see.

Gold up? perhaps. More correctly USD down!!

P.S. Black Blade, thanks for all the wonderful posts and links. Tonight I am a rich man because of your and others tireless posts on this web site.

BelgianGoing Parabolic.....#967792/5/03; 02:35:28

Letting Gold-up and the dollar-down, run away with such a shoutingly invitation to come and take profits as to let some steam off the kettle. The steeper the moves become, the more urgent profit taking is "needed".
But these kind of parabolic moves, are at the same time, new invitations for later repetition of the same actions.
Sort of wakie, wakie, calls of a very fundamental nature.

POG's new, enormous, trend can only be broken if 330$ is crashed on an eventual down-knocker . I don't bet a single cent on this.

The main Fear-Factor in the markets comes from the crude-oil factor (POO) and not the Iraqi war or Saddam as such.
It is a war against OPEC ! The world's economies hanging on the oil-rope. A very terrifying situation. Getting Iraqi oil, manu militari, into the market...against a reasonable, peacefull solution, through the dollar taking some steps backwards and letting the euro-alternative, clear the job with oil for euro. Quite a dilemma. That's what we are watching today...tomorrow.

Black BladeWhew - Pant Pant Pant....#967802/5/03; 02:36:38

The air was just a bit thin up there for Spot. Topped at $389 before oxygen deprivation sapped Spot. Time to catch his breath before another try. Besides, Spot ran out of chart on the upside and banged his head.

- Black Blade

Rocketman ****** $390.80 ******** April Gold#967812/5/03; 02:44:33

Spot barely stops to catch his breath as $390 is breached!!!

I'm going to need to take some valium to calm myself down

Black BladeBank of America to Cut 1,000 Jobs#967822/5/03; 02:49:28


LONDON (Reuters) - Bank of America Corp. aims to cut around 1,000 technology and back office jobs in the first quarter of this year in a move to cut costs in the face of tough economic conditions, the bank's spokeswoman in London said on Wednesday.

Black Blade: It's always good to see Bank of America doing its part by getting in on the action by contributing to the growing "Bone Pile".

Black BladeMarket Indicators#967832/5/03; 03:06:15

The US market index futures are sharply lower, the USD is falling (hard), PMs are solidly higher and poised to pierce the $390 level, oil is higher while NatGas is flat, and grains are lower (hmmm...).

Could get very "interesting" today and what happens after Sec. Colin Powell's speech this morning is anyones guess. Early indications are that war with Iraq is a "done deal". Looks like a lot of "entertainment" will be provided by the little rodentia (or is that vermin?) we call Lemmings.

- Black Blade

Black BladeGerman jobless rises to 11 percent in January, more than 4.6 million out of work#967842/5/03; 03:16:31


FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- Germany's jobless rate rose in January to 11 percent, or 4.62 million jobless, the highest point during Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's administration, the country's federal labor office said Wednesday.

Black Blade: That's a lot of German "Bones" cast atop the "Bone Pile". Hey, didn't old Gerhard promise to do something about unemployment during the recent election? Hmmm…

misetichWashington issues grim warning on N Korea - Defined not as a "crisis" but a "big problem"#967852/5/03; 05:02:27


Within several months North Korea could extract 25-30kg of plutonium - enough for four to six nuclear weapons - from the 8,000 fuel rods it has stored at the Yongbyon nuclear facility.

But Mr Armitage defended US policy of using diplomacy to deal with Pyongyang while preparing for war with Baghdad.

The number two official in the state department declined to describe the dispute with North Korea as a "crisis", as he came under intense questioning from Democrat senators on whether the administration had its priorities mixed up.

Instead he called it a "big problem" and insisted direct talks between the US and North Korea were the way forward.
Russia attacked the US approach to North Korea, exposing a widening rift between Moscow and Washington over the issue.

Moscow said it opposed any reinforcement of US forces in the Pacific and criticised Washington's plan to refer North Korea to the UN Security Council.

US officials have also expressed frustration over what they see as a lack of Chinese pressure on Pyongyang.

Mr Armitage conceded that North Korea was a worse proliferator than Iraq, selling missiles to Yemen, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt "and other places". The US also had "suspicions" that North Korea had spread nuclear weapons technology, indicating that Pakistan and Libya might have benefited.

On the geopolitical front things are heating up- More disputes and disagreements with their allies and foes - action and reaction - lets stay tuned on this trail

Got gold?

misetichJob Cuts Up 42 Percent From December#967862/5/03; 05:19:38


Job cuts announced by U.S. corporations in January increased 42 percent from December, led by the retail, commodities and transportation sectors, the outplacement firm of Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said Tuesday

Announced job cuts for January totaled 132,222 compared with 92,917 in December, Challenger said.


Keyword is "announced" - which is probably way below actual

Unemployment rising - unemployment benefits payments rising - income tax inflows are reduced -
Consumer debt payments and debts defaults are rising - How long before the housing bubble bursts?

Got gold?

misetichMARKET STRESS ON PENSION FUNDS - stock market woes producing underfunded pension trusts#967872/5/03; 05:41:07


Moody's says that the current economic environment and underfunded status of many defined benefit pension plans demand increased scrutiny of a company's pension liabilities and costs, and funding requirements. Specifically, understanding a company's current and future cash contributions to these plans is key to Moody's analysis.
"Moody's places its greatest emphasis on assessing future cash flow requirements needed to fund companies' defined benefit pension plans," says Moody's Senior Vice President Steve Oman in a new rating methodology report on pension obligations. "When required contributions appear likely to exceed a company's internal funding capabilities, or could impair the company's ability to make critical business investments, a reassessment of the rating may be warranted."

"They" couldn't post-pone (credit rating) any further as the "hoped" economy and stock market recovery is a dream - back to reality -
The vicious circle continues unabated - stock market down - creates additional financial stress -

Got gold?

misetichRecord 214, 000 Japanese File Bankruptcy#967882/5/03; 05:54:51


TOKYO (AP) -- A record 214,000 Japanese individuals filed for bankruptcy last year as the nation continued to struggle with its now chronic economic slump, Japan's top court said Tuesday.

A total of 214,634 Japanese filed for bankruptcy nationwide in 2002, up 33.8 percent from 160,457 the previous year, Supreme Court spokesman Isao Umezawa said.


Many investors don't realize the present global economic conditions -
Unemployment is on the rise in Germany, consumer confidence hit a new low in France - US -

Globalization has its advantageous in upturn - but it is disastrous in a downturn as it promotes "deflation"

Corporations are facing higher energy costs - stagnant sales - margin squeeze -

Unemployment is on the rise - where to consumer spending?

Who stands to lose the most? Probably investors whose holdings are in higher inflated p/e ratios! = Wall Street

and yes the "war" drums are beating faster

How does one provide "insurance" to their portfolios?

Got gold?

Truthcastergold & Sliver#967892/5/03; 07:32:04

Looks like gold had a good night with spot hitting 390
and silver 4.96 I see now that the PM's are heading
lower with silver down 6 cents. It's weird to see the
dollar rising and US stocks turning around with all the
bad news today, I mean you can't even find any good news
Cisco earnings sure didn't do much and more and more jobs are
going to the bone pile and then there's the speech at the
UN. Now that is were we might see the surprise I wonder
if someone knows somthing that Powell is going to get the
support he needs for the war. It's going to be a wild ride
today that's for sure. I sure didn't like to see silver
start out the day under water it takes so long for it to
gain any ground but it can lose ground in a heart beat.

sectorThe Gold Cartel is Fighting for the PM Fix#9679002/05/03; 07:45:50 about 15 minutes

They want it just a little above yesterday's $376.50. That way they stay on the regression line. By doing so, they are maintaining a steady, derivative managed up slope that hits $630 by the end of the year.

It's clear they haven't yet let gold go to a new level that would be covered by a war excuse. A kind of Doppler shift up. But still Asian runs to almost $390 with the attendant physical draw down in Japan are hardly the stuff of an organized retreat.

It's the Japanese who are the 800 pound gorillas to worry about because they have so much ready cash -- $600 Billion -- more than enough to swamp any manipulation using paper. Even with paper the bad guys still are required to loan their gold and they are running out of gold to lend.

DuncanIdaho@All; a heads-up: The Real but Unspoken Reason for Iraq War#9679102/05/03; 08:08:02

The Real but Unspoken Reason for Iraq War

There have been several posts about this article already on the Forum (Trojan #96590, Clink #96592, and Waterboy #96611, among others), but I haven't seen much discussion anywhere about this article and what it means for us ‘goldbugs’.I urge you to study this article (if you haven't seen it already).

I don't think there is much doubt about the coming war/regime change in Iraq. I take that, and the subsequent ‘allied’ success/victory as given, and move on to what this all means for the US, Europe, US$, and POG/PM stocks down the road. What struck me so forcefully about Mr. Clark's analysis is that it is the best explanation I've seen yet re Iraq—both reasons for war, and ‘manifold’ implications of allied success; such as [among others] (a) resurrection of US economy, the markets, and most especially the US$, using captured Iraqi oil and gold, (b) rapid drop in POO to kill OPEC and its control of oil supply and pricing, (c) death of the idea of the euro (as the new oil currency) and the dream of European Community, (d) US$ continiues as global reserve currency and ‘the’ oil currency for the foreseeable future, and (e) the Brit/Zionist/American alliance remains in control, while all other nations are kept at their present (irrelevant) second- and third-class status.

Re rising US$ vs POG, recall FOA's: "...if the dollar banking factions were to win this round, we will get another little price inflation cycle and paper gold will, once again, rise a few hundred dollars. The payoff would serve the mines and leveraged paper players at the expense of long term wealth creation for physical gold advocates. In past cycle form, the statist would send the paper gold price back to the pits." [from FOA (10/3/01; 10:21:26MT - msg#110) The makings of a dust storm]. And if POG tanks, won't the PM stock prices go with it? Is this the reason for the recent heavy shorting of gold stocks: Insiders/Big Players/‘People in the know’ are unconcerned about the current (temporary) rise in the price of ‘paper gold’ and are shorting PM stocks like crazy, in order to profit big time in the near future?

I hope I'm wrong about all this, but I see no way around it. This article is an important kick-butt, eye-opening read. I think this analysis should be discussed re near-future POG and PMs. See what you think.

I appreciate this Forum and the people who share their knowledge and understanding here. I've benefitted greatly from the insights of many of the members, particularly Another/FOA, Aristotle (I got me some), and Black Blade. I am in your debt.

Best wishes to all,

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USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Why gold? Why now? (And how you can get it with a simple phone call...)#9679302/05/03; 08:25:21

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balzacGOLD FALLING SHARPLY ---376.70 ON FOREX#9679402/05/03; 08:56:19

motown_goldwar premium in gold?#9679502/05/03; 09:10:30

if this is it, i am not too impressed! buy now, buy cheap..
TruthcasterPowell#9679602/05/03; 09:13:12

The more Powell talks the weaker the PM's
get gold 376 & silver down 9 cents!! ouch
it will take some time for silver to get
back on it's feet. Also the dow is up 80
points +/-. Like I said it's going to be a wild
ride today hold on tight... Dollar is falling
I was just told... Hmmm. ;o)

makcumka(No Subject)#9679702/05/03; 09:16:56

FOREX shows gold at 380+ and going up. That buying opportunity lasted all of 20 minutes, it seems. Window is getting smaller and smaller.
OperativeWhats Up Doc?#9679802/05/03; 09:38:51

Yosemite Sam (Cabal) walks through the swinging doors at the Golden Carrot Salon. "I am the meaneast, toughest, anti gold desperato west of the Pecos. Bang Bang Bang BAng..." I mean to shoot down all you little gold bug lovin critters" Bang Bang Bang. " I hate gold bugs..."
Bugs Bunny turns from the bar, reaches into his vest, pulls out a one year gold chart and holds it up for Sam to see and while calmly crunching on a golden carrot, says..."Eh....whats up doc?"

TruthcasterJump spot jump#9679902/05/03; 09:39:03

Yo/yo continues gold going up some now
+2.60. 381 Jump spot.. :o)

Socrates964Fibonacci insights#9680002/05/03; 10:03:50

I've posted some things on my Fib-based TA in the past.

One of my core principles is to look very hard at the 78.6% retracement level - which marks the watershed between a good retracement and a new trend. If exceeded, there is a very good chance that the instrument in question goes to the 127.2% level and possibly the 161.8% level in short order.

Apply this to the 1996-99 downmove from $414.8 to $254.8 and the 78.6% comes in at 380.56. Other significant levels are:

38.2% - 315.9
48.6% - 332.6
61.8% - 353.7
78.6% - 380.6
100% - 414.8
127.2% - 458.0
161.8% - 513.7

The point is that these numbers represent equilibrium levels (and correspond to the reciprocals of roots of the golden mean) - they may be broken, they may not be, but they indicate key resistance levels.

In general the 2 most important numbers are the 61.8 and 78.6 numbers - note the 61.8 was bang on Jim Sinclair's 354 figure - not surprising that gold stalled here and then went ballistic.

In many ways, 380.6 is the most important number of them all. I normally look for a close 1.5-2% above a key level to indicate PM fix in the 386-88 range)

We can thus expect the mother of battles around this level. Today's PM fix at 382.10 is encouraging, but we need to hold the AM highs to prove that we are through. Soon, I hope.

Magister AureliusSigns the Cabal is soiling itself#9680102/05/03; 10:06:19

That last price dip lasted for only 20 minutes and failed to send the POG below $375. The Powers That Be in my view attempted a surreptitious and medium move to try to extend the window for the shorts to save themselves. The fact that the dip lasted for less than half a day and couldn't send gold below $375 shows that they are running out of ammo and will be getting desperate soon. Look for another of these "corrections" and look for it to fail as well. Then you might actually see a direct and open move by the CBs. Are you all singing "Rocket Man" by now? Gold ain't coming down for a long long time.
Nibelungact on today's price dip#9680202/05/03; 11:41:38

Today's comex price dip is probably about the most significant dip I expect to see, having hit a very brief low of about 373 a half hour ago. and now the price is hovering about 375. If anyone's been waiting to buy on a dip, I would say this is probably as good a dip as we might expect to see. So acquire some today.
If the iraq thing goes extremely well, we might see a brief dip to perhaps 360 - but I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for that - highly speculative. Most likely, the strong upward trend will continue unabated. So today's dip is probably the best we'll see. Make hay while the sun shines and spin some of that hay into gold during today's dip!

Best regards,

cyberbatstale smoke and destruction#9680302/05/03; 11:42:08

Many of us are strewn across the battlefield now licking our wounds. You have to give it to the cabal. They are reckless and brutal.
I'm going to pick myself up and fight another day. This is going to be a long war with a lot of ambush's in the offing. Get used to it brave hearts; They are not going away!!

TruthcasterSilver#9680402/05/03; 12:00:54

Any idea why silver lost 16 cents on the day falling
clear back to 4.72? Did I miss some news somewhere?
Any Info would be of great help? Thanks!! ;o)

Socrates964Cyberbat#9680502/05/03; 12:10:12

$380 is the last ditch before the real gold rally starts. As per my last post a close in the $386-8 is fatal, so that today's action was 100% predictable.

Take a step back from this and you'll see that we're $6 above Monday's close and have just shown that $372 resistance has become support - so I'm not too concerned.

I nevertheless find it incredible that the US media continues to pump out the 'Iraqi war premium in POG' story and that people actually seem to believe this garbage. As if your average Chinese/Japanese/Indian is buying gold because of the twists and turns in the Dubya-Saddam cat and mouse game.

We've also heard that the Indian father of the bride-to-be has been pulling his hair out because gold is soaring and taking jewellery prices, so presumably all the cartel has done today is to give the Subcontinent a big wedding present, which is jolly nice of them, don't you agree!

a nation of oneno need to be depressed#9680602/05/03; 12:14:05

The nature of potential events forms a continuum. Possibilities are not parcelled into conveniently packaged likelyhoods. There are two things at this point, however, that are each more probable than many other contingencies. Neither is guaranteed to occur. Something else could happen. But these two come most predominately to mind.

1. In recent days, the main upward movement in POG has occurred after the U.S. close. The reason for this could be one of several things. But if this pattern continues, POG could well be expected to rise tonight as it has done before. Or,

2. The present selloff is merely typical and will abate. Thereafter, having diminished its force, buyers will once more step in. In this case it may be wiser not to buy on these dips but to wait for further ones, which, most likely, will be followed by a pronounced reduction in selling.

The site is good for perceiving this, but you may have to register there to see them.

As freqeuntly happens in our world, possibility number one and possibility number two -though both possible- do not have the same recommended plan of activity for the speculator, which is one reason speculators are called 'speculators' and not 'sure-thingers'.

Also, neither actuality can be known absolutely for sure just by looking at charts through your browser window. This makes certainty inapplicable. But since the primary trend for gold is up, holding gold overcomes the negative aspect of both contingencies, since, merely by holding on, headway will sooner or later be made.

Mountain Top$375.50#9680702/05/03; 12:14:40

This is a major victory. I lost the last contest because my guess was too high! My guess was $375.00! Just think where we were just that long ago. Think about where we were just a few weeks ago. They beat the price of gold down in New York but it goes up overseas. I used to be impressed by people who could manipulate the price of gold world wide. It would appear that they have lost the power to do that in a large part of the world. We are winning
DracoNot too bad#9680802/05/03; 12:21:03

There was an OBVIOUS all-out effort in all markets today to put a good spin on Powells' speech at the UN. Even CNBC got into the act. Did you notice that they were showing the POG on the ticker with their always present DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P ticker? Curious that they would do that on the day that gold takes a hit. They are still showing it now even after the gold trading is over at -2.70. I sure didn't notice them showing the POG yesterday. If you think about it, being down only $2.70 following an $8 rise yesterday is not too bad. I was expecting a larger drop. The gold stocks still showing a net gain from yeterday.

The powers that be seem to be batting 1000 today as the major stock indicators are all up. Gold and crude are down. And all of the spin-miesters are out in force. Still a couple of hours to go and the markets could turn, but it would seem the cabal is out in force and in As Cyberbat said: "They are not going away", but I think they will become less and less effective....tomorrow.

These are the times that try men's souls.........

..but gold sure helps

Operative@ Cyberbat#9680902/05/03; 12:23:45

Aint Nothing But a Thing

Today is no biggie mate. The battlefield lines (yr Gold chart) show the steadily advancing lines of the Gold Team and a most definitive retreat of the Gold Manipulation Team.
They got off a few rounds today as they continue to give ground. Cant blame them, last night they were retreating at a rate/speed that almost bespeaks of a panic run. Glad to see they regrouped enough to get some of their wits back. I say the Samuri will take to to them again tonight.

a nation of one- - -#9681002/05/03; 12:24:37

I dreamed last night of a river bank. I was standing on a grassy path above the water, twenty or thirty feet below. Beside me and my friends were two large marble scupltures, both curved, perhaps the letter D, like posts to a vast abandoned gate. There were patches of disarrayed earthy clumps on the bank below, topped by grass and weeds, as though recently descended from higher places. I realized the bank would fall. I began to say, "The bank is going to collapse," and as I spoke this, suddenly the ground gave way, mud and grass and the two Ds and me and friends all falling toward the muddy river. I grabbed a nearby tree and it descended with me into the water. The water was deep, but I only sank into up to my thighs, while everyone else was up to their necks. I thank gold for this. And I probably don't need to point out that DOW and Dollar both start with D. And of course we all know what bank could possibly give way.
a nation of one...#9681102/05/03; 12:28:05

"These are the times that try men's souls..." And, "They are a changin'."
Draco@ a nation of one#9681202/05/03; 12:38:05

I agree...They are a changin.

Another quote from Thomas Paine:

"The harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value."

Magister AureliusCyberbat#9681302/05/03; 12:38:23

I knew they would pull a double whammy when the first blow was too weak. The shorts have to be panicking about now even with the breathing room they have received. But today wasn't the shorts running like heck. Today, when POG hit $390, some bigger fish up the food chain got very scared. Today, as witnessed by the double whammy nature of the hit, I believe the bullion banks struck out of fear.
Buena Fedepends#9681402/05/03; 12:50:08

get ready folks
i tink a dow 1000 pointer (Thom Calandra) to the pink side is possibly moments away.

i LOVE this volitility in gold, wait till we get the 50 buck interday moves like the old days

this bull hasn't even started to snort yet, hee hee

advice, keep a box of "depends" deside your computer.

a nation of oneTo Draco#9681502/05/03; 12:50:16

Your quote: "What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives every thing its value...."

--Those in office today obtained their liberty by being born into it.

Buena Fea nation of one #9681602/05/03; 12:52:56

i like dreams

debt also starts with D

cyberbat@ Socratese#9681702/05/03; 12:55:17

Hope you are right there. I can't figure out though why they won't manipulate upward since that is the trend. Could they not split both sides of this game?

a nation of one;#9681802/05/03; 12:57:32

Maybe there were three Ds.
Black BladeLinder Sees Possible Nat Gas Crisis#9681902/05/03; 12:59:36


VANCOUVER -- Peter Linder is accustomed to making assertive top-down calls on the oil and gas sector and his move to a hedge fund hasn't changed that. "In my 25 years of looking at natural gas prices, I've never been as bullish as I am today. Never," said the former energy economist, natural gas consultant and equity analyst. "And that's not for the next three to six months, that's for the next three to eight years," he adds for good measure. Linder is bullish on natural gas because North American supply is dwindling and producers are having trouble replacing it. "I believe there's potential for a natural gas crisis later this year," Linder said. The Canadian natural-gas storage situation is more dire than the U.S. storage situation, "which people don't talk about," Linder said.

Black Blade: The article is at a subscription site (WSJ Online). This is typical sentiment of many in the energy patch. We are headed straight into another energy crisis that will hit the economy like a ton of (gold?) bricks. The last California energy crisis will pale in comparison as NG fired power will be lean, hydro power is uncertain with drought conditions persisting in much of the US, coal power straddled with "carbon credit" limitations, and several nukes shutdown for either repairs or scheduled for long term maintenance. It's a lock that there will be no economic recovery this year or next.

Daniel DruffTopaz#9682002/05/03; 13:08:08


Back of The Envelope Notes: From what we've been reading concerning the incredible properties of silver, I'm of the opinion that this metal should not be used for photography in a general or casual manner. The stuff is just too good.

So let's pretend that as of last 31December the Kodaks of the world changed their ways and became responsible participants in the silver sector. This would save somewhat less than 285,000,000 ounces of silver from being foolishly destroyed. We are talking about a precious metal.

Thanks again for your financialsense/Mr. Jim Puplava direction where sharefin suggests that the world is in deficit by roughly 215,000,000 ounces every year, and this has been going on for 20 years! After glancing through some of the contributions of Messrs. Butler and Morgan, a lower 70,000,000 to 100,000,000 ounce deficit comes into play.

Let's put the annual deficit somewhere between 70 and 215,000,000 ounces every year. Topaz, that number is going to go much higher in the not too distant future.

The Kodaks of the world should be encouraged to stop using silver in such numbers. If they stop right now, we'll only have an annual SURPLUS of somewhere below 215,000,000 and 70,000,000 ounces...that's less than 43,000 to 14,000 contracts on the Comex. I'm using the max numbers because I have no idea how much silver is really needed in photography for serious reasons which would exclude Disneyland photos, etc.

M3 is used in most Au/Ag money, as R Powell would say. The way our monetary masters have increased M3 over the years, we must conclude that this money supply has been increasing faster than our desired silver surplus. We should be overjoyed at these silver prices and as responsible citizens of the world we must encourage our Congress Person to draft a Bill which will legalize a bifurcated pricing system for silver. It could be called The Frivolous Silver Use Bill, and would require Kodak & Friends to pay double the market price.

Off the wall? Yes...but so is using silver in little's ridiculous! It's a waste of a valuable commodity. They want a picture of The Great Wall? Buy a post card or have a vender with a digital device mail it to you. There's security agents everywhere with digital
cameras...put them to work.

Don't worry, with all that M3 floating around, our little surplus will vanish in a split second when the health freaks start buying 100 ounce bars to stick in their refrigerators and swimming pools.

We should meet this Photography Issue head on. The science/health angle is a winner. If Butler/Morgan, et al. start a campaign to penalize silver use in photography the wastrels will be destroyed by the end of the year...easy.

We are citizens first.

Thank you

sector@Daniel Druff I like your thinking most of the time...#9682102/05/03; 13:38:16

...except on silver and photography

The majority of Kodak, DuPont, Fuji, Konica and Agfa silver use is in medical x-ray film. The films start at 14 " x 17" double side thick emulsion coated and run smaller to about 8"x 8" for mammography. Although there are medical silver reclamation methods and an industry has built up around the recycling that silver, the legal archival requirements of years necessitates the continuous filing of thousands of tonnes of metallic silver on x-ray film. This film demand is growing with the aging population's growing medical needs..not to mention the rising motorcycle ["Murdercycle"] use. I once carried a film jacket that weighed in at 80 pounds...a silgle file from a single accident victim.

Digital technology can compete only so far and the equipment is very expensive relative to cassette based film. Orthopaedic applications are not suitable to digital technology as there is a very high spatial resolution requirement there.

If you want a culprit in the $5 silver mystery, give Vincente Fox a call. He is the only logical official seller that could plausibly have caused today's anomalous price. For every ounce he sells below $5 he gets another $5 from the Bushmeister... "Off balance sheet" of course.

Why do you suppose El Presidente snubbed dubya by not showing up at his inauguration? And why would the US leader get on his hands and knees and shelep on down to Mexico to the Fox ranch?

The answer is found by asking what exactly Mexico HAS that the US NEEDS. They got silver. Mountains of it.

Magister AureliusUh oh - another swipe#9682202/05/03; 13:38:25

Well... it looks like a buying opportunity. Gold slides to under $370. So much for the $372 support.
GoldnSilver2002Dont you think japan will wake up and go whats up with gold?#9682302/05/03; 13:47:43

Well the cabal is getting so desperate they dont care if the whole world does know about the suppression.Every time they do this they give everyone who missed the boat a chance to buy more.Being at 370 is still ok,china will be back next monday eager to buy more cheap physical while they still can.Id love to know what wall st heard in Powell's speech to make them dump that much gold lol.Europe will pick up on this move and so will asia,and they will begin to question just what is going on...realizing the manipulation their craving for physical will increase.Wow 390 in asia to 369 in north america.Anyone notice that?Introduce wild volatility and then say things like "gold is up on hot air" all over the north american airwaves.Man did they look nervous?Comments on Powell's speech?
WaveriderDAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT #9682402/05/03; 13:55:17

Not to be missed...
Black BladePhysical Demand Surges In Japan#9682502/05/03; 14:02:50

Osamu Ikeda, general manager of precious metals at Japan's biggest bullion house, Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K., told Reuters that ordinary Japanese were turning up in droves to buy gold bars and coins. Even so, Ikeda warned that there were sellers among people who bought back in 1999 - when gold prices hit a low of 917 yen per gram - who were now taking advantage of the high price.

Kikinzoku reported that its bullion sales for investment purposes soared 54% in calendar 2002, as investors funneled money to gold from stocks and other assets.

"Many individuals have recently come to us to purchase gold in chunks of 2 or 3 kilograms," a dealer from the company told the Kyodo News. "It appears that gold possession is regarded as a good method for preserving the security of one's assets from a long-term standpoint, as people have come to develop anxieties about the course of Japanese society."

Black Blade: Funds are taking profits now as one seller leads to another. However, physical demand is surging and the real deal is in short supply. The selling is likely short lived as it is simply a panic reaction by novices in the short term timing game. Meanwhile individual investors are taking up the slack buying physical gold. It should get interesting as physical is taken off the table.

Black BladeAfter The Bell#9682602/05/03; 14:20:14

CNBC reports that 120,000 gold contracts traded after the bell. That is three times normal volume. Meanwhile the USD is falling back. It should get interesting tonight when Asia gets to carry the ball.

- Black Blade

Socrates964GoldnSilver#9682702/05/03; 14:27:21

The Japanese/Chinese are probably laughing their heads off. This kind of bull in a china shop action will impress them as much as Daddy Bush throwing up over the dinner table in Tokyo.

Note also that gold stocks didn't sell off much over here and that the Dow couldn't even manage to close up on the day, despite the great Colin Powell speech.

I have a suspicion that this will go down in history as the day that the cartel lost it.

21mabrymarkets#9682802/05/03; 14:51:30

Was watching cnbc,Bob Pisani was talking and said gold futures contracts increased a great deal by 120,000 and thhats all im gonna say about that.What does that mean sounded like he wanted to get through it as fast as he could.That was 120,000 contracts'stocks and gold both down,whats up with that.Have a local radio financial show in my area,the finance expert runs a money fund in the area,has liked gold for about 2 years now always talks it up,he also likes energy,he believes commodities will do well for at least next 18 months,its a good show he helps alot of the locals with their 401k.
Magister AureliusThree blows in a row#9682902/05/03; 15:06:29

Wow.. TPTB are really going off their rocker. Gold closed above $380 in London and is going nuts in Japan and the rest of the Asian markets. Even the sheeple are going to begin to notice a $10 - $20 discrepancy between the markets. These guys really are desperate. Of course, I did read an article about a bullion bank that could be caught short by a billion bucks if POG continues to rise....
Daniel Druffsector#9683002/05/03; 15:33:11


Are you suggesting that the frivolous use of silver by Kodac & Friends is no where near 285,000,000 ounces each year? I was assuming that we would save pretty close to the entire number creating a short lived surplus rather than our current deficit.

So, let's pretend that Kodac & Friends destroy only 1/2 of everything they touch even after The Frivolous Silver Use Bill is passed. That would be roughly 140,000,000 ounces. Instead of having a deficit of somewhere between sharfin's 215,000,000 to Butler/Morgan's 70,000,000 ounces, we would have a DEFICIT of 75,000,000 ounces to a SURPLUS of only 70,000,000...pretty close to zero if you average out the numbers. Can we agree that the deficit in the silver supply is largely due to the frivolous use of silver in photography?

Back of The Envelope: Assume the theoretical implementation of The Frivilous Silver Use Tax; the Photographic Industry decreases their silver destruction to 140,000,000 ounces per year. Sharefin's 215,000,000 ounce world DEFICIT becomes 75,000,000 and all other credible estimates go from a previous low 70,000,000 ounce DEFICIT to a very reasonable 70,000,000 ounce SURPLUS...14,000 contracts on Comex taken down for investment by insightful and responsible investors is not a large number.

Bushmeister and President Fox

Would you expand on the Bushmeister entity? If Mexico's silver is being used in a frivilous manner, the purchasers would be penalized if our legislation were inacted. Who knows, we may have to unite with the tree huggers to get legislation which would encougage end-users to husband a very important resourse. Silver should be primarily used in science and medicine not little hand held cameras. Again, we should face this photography issue square on.

We need a bumber sticker slogan...something like this:


We should emphasize science, medicine, silver rather than lead in soldering, and any other advanced uses of this valuable resourse. But let me close by asking you how much silver is squandered in the use of little cameras? One ounce is too much, imho.

Thank you

Black BladeCircuit City to cut 2,000 jobs as sales continue decline #9683102/05/03; 15:37:39


RICHMOND, Va. (AP) Circuit City Stores Inc. said Wednesday it will cut about 2,000 jobs, or 4.8 percent of its work force, and stop paying commissions to its sales staff to save money.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" grows again.

Off to the gym!

Paper AvalancheMarkets failing up or down?#9683202/05/03; 15:53:15

If we accept the theories posited on the golden trail, specifically that the paper gold markets will indeed fail, whether up or down, then we should take comfort not in the nominal price day to day, but rather in the volatility of the paper markets themselves. Suppose we see POG go down another $20 a day for the next few days through $300 only to realize that the velocity is such that the price is weeks away from $200 and then $100 per ounce. Should we panic, or would we realize that those other 5.7 billion people in the world are continuing to vote with their feet (and dollars) such that they are taking whatever dollar price that they can get for their paper contracts and purchasing physical gold given that there faith in the delievry of such metal in the paper markets no longer exists.

Could it be at all possible that some of the contracts from the latest expiry are not delivering the physical and the smart money realizes that the vast majority of physical can never be delivered? I would think that a run up as we experienced over the last 60 days may have precipitated such an event. People want physical gold. The chinese, the Russian CB and many others simply want to exchnage dolars for physical. The paper gold markets cannot facilitate this exchange. We must recognize that there exists a threshold where this realization occurs and it may have already taken place ($350? $360? $370?). The separation of physical from paper will not arrive with an official declaration that it has started. I believe that the recognition of such a separation will be only discernable in hindsight.

The Chinese populus has only begun to take physical gold off the world market.

Fail up, or fail down, the paper gold market will indeed fail and then there will be a.......


Paper AvalancheCorrection: "their faith"#9683302/05/03; 15:54:17

BelgianAction causes Reaction.....#9683402/05/03; 15:57:44

Physical-Gold and paper-gold are grabbing at each other's throath. Great !
Little amounts of Physical Gold uptake (being scarcer), need to be countered with larger and larger amounts of paper gold contracts. Paper still wants to neutralize, Physical. The dollar is cornered and is losing its hedging-grips, through the Gold Giants's Physical actions.
The dollar keeps on wanting to buy "time". Time with (for)paper. The Physical-Advocates don't need goldpaper-"time" anymore.

Paper-gold will keep on trying to knock POG down, each time it will reach another parabolic intermediate high.
Thing is that the Gold-watcher must come to terms with the "who's" and "why's" of the paper and Physical camps.
And this did not yet happen. What is named as "cabal" are simply those who desire to give the dollar more time to exist and be used as reserve currency. The Physical Gold Accumulators are those who want to push the dollar back to its real proportions, another currency with less dominating force/capacity.

It is the dollar that is under increasing attack and it is the dollar that fiercly tries to defend (consolidate) itself. Today was a small but significant show of this battle. Evidence for Another's dramatic phrase of paper that will burn, dollar-paper that is.

More and more paper wishes to escape the heat (fire) and goes more and more after Physical fire-protection...GOLD !

Read WGC's message about the Switzerland inflows and POG-chart in SwFr that broke its decline-line from 1987 onwards ! Haha...the flight to safety ! Yes, but that's only the beginning of Gold's future (another's) story.

Yep, it surely will take some more time before the dollar is seriously questioned in the open ! Quite normal that a reserve-currency is not questioned that early in the beginning of its end. But the coming events in the M.E. will provide more basis for doing so, once it becomes clear what OPEC is up too with regards to what kind of currency is desired for crude oil-settlement.

Any kind of catastrophic default, will be liked by Physical Gold. But it doesn't need such defaults anymore to run to its full valuation. Those defaults, as side-effects, will only add to the already running "freezing" of the more than 20 years old, paper-circus.

Mr GreshamPickett's Charge?#9683502/05/03; 16:06:51

We'll know soon enough.

And I thought there wouldn't be any more dips to buy! Silly me...

R PowellDaniel Druff // silver #9683602/05/03; 16:33:45

That silver deficit you mention has existed for the last 12 years in a row, 2003 will be the 13th. The 2002 Silver Survey which came out in the Spring of last year contained numbers through year end 2001 and estimates for 2002. Their estimate of 120 million ounces was based on an improving economy. This was not the case and the estimate was downsized to 80 million. However, I do not believe they considered that the 75% of silver coming from by-product mining would also be lowered by that same faltering economy. Copper mining especially, has been downsized. This will reduce mining production of copper and by-product silver. The 2003 Silver Survey should be available this Spring. It will give us the year end guesstimates for 2002. Even CPM's Survey numbers are very suspect. They freely admit this with the mention that the total production of 5,000 years has never been known other than as an estimate. Most of that 5,000 years of accumulation has been used up in the last century, especially in the last 50 years.
More to come......

aussie$390.10 - $371.70#9683702/05/03; 16:53:29

What a night, sure not for the faint-hearted amongst us. Can't wait to see what happens today, certainly interesting times.
R PowellSilver supply and demand // Daniel#9683802/05/03; 17:03:19

Your words here from 96830......

"Can we agree that the deficit in the silver supply is largely due to the frivolous use of silver in photography?"

Any production business, including mining, that operates at a profit can expand and grow. Those that operate at a loss will contract and/or disappear. The law of supply and demand indicates that a profitable business sector will expand to satisfy whatever demand exists to buy their product. If demand decreases, then unsold production will cause a cutback in production. More demand stimulates expansion, less demand discourages production.
So, one would think that the ongoing deficit in silver would stimulate more production, no? But, just the opposite has been occuring for years with many silver miners either closed or just barely financially alive. This is because there is not enough profit with silver prices at (inflation adjusted) all time lows. There is no incentive to mine silver. George Soros has a large investment in a silver mining concern in the Bolivian Andes but, the last I heard, it was put on hold as the POS was (and still is) too low. That 75% of production from by-product mining is sold as by-product at whatever the market happens to be paying with the proceeds reported on the companies books as a plus that reduces the unit cost of production of their main metal (usually copper, lead, zinc or gold).

Photographic use or any use of product should act to stimulate more production but will not until the price of silver allows miners to cover their production costs and earn a reasonable profit.

So, no, I can not agree with your statement about frivolous photographic use. There is now and has been for years more demand than production (and total supply) of silver. The Sunshine Mining Co. and other silver miners would still be producing if they hadn't been forced into bankruptcy by a too low price of silver. How can this situation exist and persist? Mr. Butler has some thoughts on this as well. I have some of my own too. I'm glad you are interested in silver. Lord knows I love gold, but there are often times when change for a gold coin is needed. This, of course, requires silver.

ElGordoNorth Korea starts reactor#9683902/05/03; 17:12:40;jsessionid=BXCA1VT32UGJQCRBAEZSFFA?type=topNews&storyID=2176929

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said on Wednesday it had restarted and put on a "normal footing" the atomic facilities at the center of its suspected nuclear weapons program.

The move raises the stakes in a crisis Pyongyang said the United States had triggered by threatening the isolated communist state.

"The DPRK (North Korea) is now putting the operation of its nuclear facilities for the production of electricity on a normal footing after their restart," said a statement by the North Korean Foreign Ministry carried on the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
Escalation continues. I think the N Koreans will test a missile
soon, or even test a nuke device like India and Pak did a while
back.....N Korea wants to join the nuke club as soon as they can
thinking it will deter the US from treating them like Iraq.

The US would never sign a non-aggression pact, that would look
like capitulation big time, to a member of the axis of evil.

R PowellArbitrage in gold?#9684002/05/03; 17:20:01

Goldbugs have known for a while now that gold demand is huge in Asia and, if POG is likely to get hammered down, it would probably be in London or on Comex. If this or any pattern gets noticed by the arbitrage players they will seek to profit, in this case by buying on the lows in London or New York and selling higher in Asia. Or, sell some at the higher price in Asia and then buy back lower in London or N.Y.
There is usually no more risk being short than long in commodites trading and no requirement of any title, ownership or borrowing to sell any commodity. This may (a guess on my part) be part of what happened today but, from what we've seen lately, determining the POG will NO LONGER be done without some say from the Asian markets. POG is being "fixed" by world forces, no longer a handful of cigar smokers in a backroom in London or New York.
This is just a guess but, whatever the cause(s), we were probably due a retraction. Now, will the battle intensify? I believe it will be great fun to watch!

a nation of onecolin's speach#9684102/05/03; 18:05:21

His description of Saddam's offense seemed to imply that it was the UN that should be offended, not the US. Also, it sounded to me like the tone had changed, from a hyper agressive he-better-do-something-right-now-or-we-will type of stance, to a milder oh-well-maybe-he-shouldn't-do-those-darned-things kind of attitude on the part of the US administration. This explained to me why POG went down. It seemed clear that the time frame had shifted from "any minute now!," to "the indefinite future...." I mean who is it that isn't capable of recognizing that nothing said so far would even convince an illiterate canary?

Not that there are all that many literate canaries. But I did know a Blue Jay once that sounded like my telephone. You have almost got to be able to read to be able to sing that well. That's what I would expect.

Daniel DruffR Powell#9684202/05/03; 18:11:11


R Powell (02/05/03; 17:03:19MT - msg#: 96838)
Silver supply and demand // Daniel
Your words here from 96830......

"Can we agree that the deficit in the silver supply is largely due to the frivolous use of silver in photography?"

Thank you so much for the big picture; I appreciate it. But let's focus on the question: Is the deficit in the silver supply largely due to the frivolous use of silver in photography? Or to put it ANOTHER way: Would the silver deficit be alleviated if the sale of Throw Away Cameras required a penalty tax? about a 100% Frivolous Use Tax.

Thank you

Silver is too important in today's world to be used for Throw Away Cameras, imho.

R PowellBuying opportunity#9684302/05/03; 18:13:17

You put into words what many have been wondering..

"And I thought there wouldn't be any more dips to buy! Silly me..."

There are probably many who noticed when POG broke through the 330 level and then decided that it was now time to buy. How many of them have been waiting for a setback to enter. It didn't really happen at the 350-355 level or at the 370-372 level but we surely did bounce off 390! Now we're back to that 370 level. Will it hold or no? I don't know but I'm willing to bet that many of those who have been waiting for a chance to enter will now do so. The newly acquired weak longs just bailed out. Those that now take those vacated seats will be stronger players not so easily scared off.
This may also be a good time to call our host CPM to add to the stash on this buying opportunity. I've bought from them (silver, of course) and have nothing but the best to say from the experience. I owed Town Crier this free, unsolicited plug after spoofing on his charts but I wouldn't say it if it weren't true. Great service!

WaveriderSpot#9684402/05/03; 18:14:27

I think when Spot banged his head on $389.00 last night he must of banged it REAL hard, 'cause he's out cold with a concussion! Nothing that time won't heal!

BTW - I thought that all TOCOM gold contract upper and lower price limits were 40 yen/gram, but apparently not.

Paper AvalancheWhat's is worth?#9684502/05/03; 18:35:01

Someone appears to be selling the paper gold contracts as if they are worthless. If you hold a contract to buy X amount of gold at $375 and your intention is to take delivery and you find out that regardless of price that you will not be able to do so because the counter party didn't have the gold to sell in the first place, would you not feel pretty releived if you could find a sucker to take it off your hands at around $370 so you could take that cash and pick up the metal in the physical market? Such may be the very dynamic at play at the moment.

The more I think about this, the more I believe that the market will fail down. When the "price" of gold is $50 you can have as much physical gold as you want as long as you are willing to pay the modest $3,000 premium.

Paper Avalanche - a mathematical inevitability

aussieGet Spot to the Dr. #9684602/05/03; 18:53:23

Good one Waverider, - hope Spot makes a very speedy recovery.
R PowellDaniel Druff#9684702/05/03; 18:55:55

Restricting silver use

No, Daniel, other than in a state of emergency, I do not believe any artificial (read government mandated) restrictions or regulations should be imposed in any markets. On business philosophy I believe everyone's well being is best served through free, unrestricted markets, left alone to respond to the laws of supply and demand.

What is especially scary in your proposal of limiting the use of silver or any commodity is the fact that any such limitations made, set a precedent that increases the likelihood of future restrictions, and not only on silver! If such use limitations are to be made, who shall we deem best capable of making them? Who is better able to judge what is best for the benefit of all than the unencumbered laws or forces of free capitalism? Not perfect by any means, but what system has been proven to work better? Who shall judge who gets silver and who does not? Who shall judge the degree of necessity of each different use of silver. And, if such a system is freely accepted, shall we then also appoint some power to make other decisions in our lives? Perhaps, as was once said (Jefferson?), that government is best which governs least. Especially in economics.

A truely free silver market would set the price of silver higher and stimulate production. This higher price would also ration the use of silver so that perhaps film use might decrease in favor of other, more needful uses. However, a profitable POS would, over time, produce enough. Saving old medical records might not be a great use of silver but would you restrict the use of photographic uses of silver in all medicine? I know, just sightseeing photography, but already this presents more judgements to make for whatever power you'd have restricting use. Let the markets perform as they should and there will be enough silver. Higher silver prices would also (in the long term) re-introduce recyclable silver for future use.
Kodak is now recycling silver in plants built in China where environmental laws are somewhat less restrictive and labor is still cheap enough to allow the process. Given a higher POS this would be a profitable business anywhere. Guess why Kodak moved to China?

Dollar BillThe daily wreckoning#9684802/05/03; 18:59:38

But Greenspan did the impossible. He made gold go down while the dollar went up. It looked as though he had created a perfectly stable economy - with high growth, low unemployment, and little inflation; people thought it would last forever.

But like wolves at a pigs' picnic, along came the "innovative financial intermediaries" to take advantage of the situation. Since the good times are here forever, Fannie Mae and other lenders seemed to whisper in the little piggies' ears, why not take advantage of them? Why not take out some of the equity from your house and live a little? Go on...why not...the house will just keep going up in will always be plentiful...what have you got to worry about?

And so, the poor saps took the bait, and borrowed more and the point where the whole system is dangerously destabilized by an excess of credit. Lenders can still lend...but only to weaker and weaker customers

ForeignerIraq conflict in the eyes of Saddam#9684902/05/03; 19:00:29

This snippit from Saddam interview clearly explains true reasons behind world opposition to US attack on Iraq.

"Tony Benn:There are people who believe this present conflict is about oil, and I wonder if you say something about how you see the enormous oil reserves of Iraq being developed, first for the benefit of the people of Iraq and secondly for the needs of mankind.

Saddam Hussein: ....................
The consecutive American administrations were led down a path of hostility against the people of this region, including our own nation and we are part of it. Those people and others have been telling the various US administrations, especially the current one, that if you want to control the world you need to control the oil.

Therefore the destruction of Iraq is a pre-requisite to controlling oil. ........................
It seems that this argument has appealed to some US administrations especially the current one that if they control the oil in the Middle East, they would be able to control the world. They could dictate to China the size of its economic growth and interfere in its education system and could do the same to Germany and France and perhaps to Russia and Japan.

They might even tell the same to Britain if its oil doesn't satisfy its domestic consumption. It seems to me that this hostility is a trademark of the current US administration and is based on its wish to control the world and spread its hegemony................"

It seems that we can learn more about aims of our politics from our enemies than from our own politicians.

sector@RPowell Continuinmg to offer the notion...#9685002/05/03; 19:01:34

...that commodities can be sold without an underlying loan of that commodity

It isn't true.

There can be no short contract established in gold without first obtaining ownership of a contract that indirectly represents the metal…a gold loan, swap or forward sale [As from a gold producer].

If your mistaken premise that no metal ned be borrowed were true there would be no loans, swaps or forward sales on the books of the central banks.

There are 16,000 tonnes of them. AND of those banks that do report their gold derivatives, from half to 90% of their gold does not reside in the vaults. A detailed study of the subject of central bank gold receivables and gold has been published ironically, this evening over at the café.

Why would ANY central bank swap and therefore lose title to and possession of their gold? It can only be that as a condition of selling a short gold contract, actual metal and lots of it is necessary for the transaction and the central banks are where the gold is [Or used to be]. The borrowed, swapped [For paper] gold enters a pool of gold metal from which parties in markets draw to establish short positions. They borrow the gold and promise to return it at a later date. The gold markets of the world have consumed 16,000 tonnes of central bank gold in this manner. Unless one reads the background on this you are missing an opportunity.

Whatever your source for this painless shorting information is simply wrong. The example of gold share shorting suffices. One must borrow shares to short them and they cannot be shorted on a down tick at least in this country.

One cannot simply announce that they wish to short Harmony HMY and say "Here's my $100 dollars". The shares must be obtained from a pool. If there are none to borrow, there is no short. There almost always IS some to borrow so the mistaken impression is left that the shares or in the case of gold, the metal is always there to short. The metal in the pool comes from somewhere.

The so-called paper gold market is really a market based upon gold loans, swaps and forward sales. When a mine sells forward they commit by contract to dig the metal and deliver it in the future. They cannot later say they will give paper instead of the metal. The counter party has the preogerative to demand metal. They cannot sell the paper contract and get dollars without incurring a real obligation to dig and deliver gold. The forward seller is under a binding agreeement. Newmont has not closed their hedge book as quickly as expected and the current belief is that their counter parties are demanding gold metal.

This stuff is gold market 101 and can be read at John Hathaway's site in his essay "The Golden Pyramid". A google search will direct.

It's a tantalizing and seductive thought that one can print paper and infinitely sell gold down. It is also completely fallacious. Think about it for a minute. Under your source's theory, there is nothing to stop a government entity from papering the gold market [Its natural competitor] to zero. Nothing except the required metal to borrow behind the short contracts. Without the metal as represented by a loan, swap or forward sale, one cannot establish the short contract in the first place. Examples regarding index futures do not compare to gold because they represent a constellation of equities.

Governments would love the idea that they could just keep printing their paper to destroy gold once and for all. The reason it hasn't happened is why gold is in a bull market and the official sellers had to pony up 100,000 more gold contracts AFTER the bell this evening. Those gold contracts represent real metal commitments from real owner(s). Someone offered their gold in exchange for remuneration and their gold is now dispersed into the gold market in the shape of tonight's COMEX after hours contracts.

The record of how loaned gold can be forever lost can be read of in the Drexel, Burnham, Lambert, Central Bank of Portugal gold debacle Portugal loaned a good part of their gold to Drexel and lost all of it in the so-called "Paper" only gold market…the gold could not be returned by Drexel.

The selling entities are running low on gold metal to sell and therefore cannot short as much as they once did. Metal is needed to short gold.

Cavan ManR Powell#9685102/05/03; 19:03:00

The markets are infected with noise. In fact, I would kindly say the infection is terminal. There are significant long term trends developing in real time right before our eyes. I try hard to tune out the news/noise and stay focused on the trend(s). It does require patience and persistence though. Get out in front of the crowd. Buy your favorite "real estate"; sit and wait for the great unwashed to pull up in front of your house. Best...CM (They are coming in droves soon.)
Paper AvalancheRead on debka#9685202/05/03; 19:03:05

that German airlines (Lufthansa) are refusing to fly to Israel after next Monday.



R PowellWaverider#9685302/05/03; 19:12:50

Spot's sore head

Now that you mention it, I haven't seen Gandalf in a while. He must be busy tending to Spot's wounds and, I've heard it said, Gandy holds the knowledge of not only mystical spells but some powerful ancient herbal remedies. Maybe we should all sign a get well card.
ArcticfoxAnyone care to comment on this...#9685402/05/03; 19:24:31


Q: If the economy begins to improve in June of 2004 as you have indicated, possibly along with gold remonetization, would not growing demand from industry for silver have an effect?

A: If the scenario unfolds with the revitalization of a modernized Federal Reserve Gold Certificate Ratio aka Gold Cover Clause then I suspect gold will trade in a range of $100 and silver would take the front running position.

ps. not quite sure what "front running position" is. Anyone out there have any answers??

physicalmanRecent actions#9685502/05/03; 19:25:16

Hang tight everyone. I do not know exactly where things are going in the next few days but we should have a good "gut" feeling by Thursday night about 11;00 p.m. All the talk about silver being restricted in use, unless"enviro's" seized the day and had legislation passed and signed tomorrow will not change the fundementals for at least several years to come. Mexico, Australia and the other S. American countries production is in the totals that are "net short" in annual production compared to usage. China's surplus includes refining for Austrailian companies. So the idea of Mexico helping to relieve a user shortage of North American industry is probably not happening.
Most of the industrial users deal with base metal/silver byproduct miners,primary silver miners and scrap refiners directly and any extended waiting period for delivery will not show in the spot and paper markets yet. There are no "known" large stockpiles of silver ( except for Warren buffett) anywhere on earth and in my previous posts from last month i estimate that there are only 4.5 to 6 billion oz. of ag. left worldwide (about 1 oz. per person). The vast majority of that is spread very thinly among many hands and will not flow to where it is needed efficently when TSHTF. With estimated all time mining production of au-4.1 billion oz. and silver-41 billion oz. in the last 5500 years, only 10-14% of all the silver ever mined is left but 90% of the gold is still estimated to exist.
To me the greatest cheerleading one could find for silver in the mid to long term is the fact that most silver is found in epithermal deposits, which means that they are much closer to the surface than gold. It is estimated that only 7 to 8% of all the gold that exists on the surface to 7500 ft. depth has been discovered, but that 70 to 75% of all the primary silver deposits have been found.
So what if they threw paper on the pile today. It was wet so it did not burst into flames but it was thrown on a very "hot" fire so it will eventually burn. TPTB only hope is that everyone will throw in the towel and that they will catch them all. Modern science and industry find over 1400 new uses for gold, silver and the PMG evry year so unless mankind votes to go to a pre-industrial age again then the freeing up of the PM prices will happen. It is set in stone but No One truly knows the day.
As always JMVHO, DYODD and all welcomed to respond.

silvergolong@ Druff, Sector-- Silver musings#9685602/05/03; 19:25:33

The free market has a terrific mechanism that regulates the use of any scarce commodity-- it's called price. No need for a "frivolous use" tax. Theoretically, at least. Antal Fekete (if I remember correctly) makes the argument that that modern commodity markets do not price non-renewable resources correctly, thanks mainly to the futures market. Futures markets are quite appropriate for renewable, seasonal commodities that are dependent on variables outside man's control, like weather. Because no man can predict the weather, the speculative forces tend to balance each other out. Futures are NOT appropriate for non-renewable resources as the speculative forces do not balance out; instead, the inevitable result is to artificially depress prices. Nowhere is this more obvious than the silver market.

It is a positive feedback loop: consumers of silver want the lowest price they can get and are eager to lock in low prices via forward contracts. Management at natural resource companies are more concerned with keeping their jobs than enhancing shareholder value, and are all too willing to hedge production--they get their big salaries either way. Banks and market makers want to keep the futures game alive because they make their living on the transaction fees. Who loses? The economy as a whole. In economics, this is called an "externality", and is more or less the same dilemma as the classic "tragedy of the commons".

Now think about how currency inflation and a securities market bubble exacerbates the feedback loop. Monumental amounts of currency continue to be created, while non-renewable commodities prices stay depressed; thus it takes a smaller and smaller percentage of total outstanding liquidity to keep the commodities prices depressed. Furthermore, an explosion of paper currency engenders an explosion in paper assets, and as the infrastructure builds up to profit from the trade of those paper assets, it tends to want to keep the money circulating in paper, not commodities.

Now that shareholder awareness has been raised, and miners are finally de-hedging, at least one part of the positive feedback loop has been disabled. Unfortunately, there is so much paper currency about that we'll need a major liquidity crisis to occur before the giants take their foot off of silver's neck. Assuming that the Fed will honor their promise to run the presses overtime, the liquidity problem is going to have to occur in the COMEX silver stocks. This underscores Sinclair's admonition regarding the importance of taking delivery of futures contracts. That is the ONLY way to accelerate the end of the price suppression.

And the end of the non-renewable commodity price suppression scheme MUST be accelerated. The fundamental problem is this: the same pricing dynamics that depress silver and gold are also depressing oil and natural gas prices. This means that we are walking blindfolded into the abyss. It's one thing to wake up one day and have silver at $200/ounce. But what happens when the price of oil suddenly takes off like a rocket, and we haven't prepared any alternative sources?? It will be too late to start!! You need to spend energy to do the research to discover and develop alternative energy sources. If, one day, we have to choose between growing food and heating our homes to live today, or funding research to develop a viable future, what do you think will happen?

Anyhow, getting back to silver: the ironic thing is, silver prices could go to $50/ounce and we probably wouldn't notice. I made a post a week or two ago where I analyzed what would happen to the price of film if the price of silver ten-tupled. My SWAG was that film prices might double, and that was using some generous assumptions.

Druff, you are correct, there are many many more valuable uses for silver than throwaway cameras. Silver is a miracle handed down straight from God's hands to us, and yet we treat it with no respect. But our economy--as well as our attitudes about almost everything that is paper and illusory--will have to change profoundly before silver is unchained. Passing a "frivolous use" tax won't be the answer.

silvercollectorI have been toying with conflicting concepts#9685702/05/03; 19:26:23


From about 4:00am last night to a half-hour ago spot has plunged 20 dollars. Let's examine why.


Early in the day and even during Powell's presentation gold was holding it's own. I checked my PM portfolio and at a point around noonish it was up. The wheels came off and gold and PM's have since fallen off a cliff. The pundits claim that Powell did not do a good enough sell job and now they see that the US cannot go it alone, war is postponed, the immediate threat is over.

Concept 1:

If the US is to 'conquer' Iraq and liberate oil, the economy will fly, the US dollar should strength, gold should drop.

Concept 2:

The cost of the war, if the US acts alone will be costly. The dollar will fall, gold will rise.

The market seemingly thinks (in terms of gold) that the postponement of war, the US not acting alone, is bad for gold. The fact the the 'liberation of oil' is imaterial, again in terms of gold.

So what is the drill here? Ultimately if the US doesn't get its hands on the oil, recession is guaranteed, yes? No oil flow, no recovery, dollar death and gold flies yes?

So how is today's events so bad for gold, especially since the USD has not changed a heck of alot?


LeighWaverider#9685802/05/03; 19:27:39

Maybe Spot's been kidnapped! By the cabal! This could be serious, Waverider!
ElGordoN Korea threatens US with first strike#9685902/05/03; 19:51:10,3604,889600,00.html

North Korea is entitled to launch a pre-emptive strike against the US rather than wait until the American military have finished with Iraq, the North's foreign ministry told the Guardian yesterday.

Warning that the current nuclear crisis is worse than that in 1994, when the peninsula stood on the brink of oblivion, a ministry spokesman called on Britain to use its influence with Washington to avert war.

"The United States says that after Iraq, we are next", said the deputy director Ri Pyong-gap, "but we have our own countermeasures. Pre-emptive attacks are not the exclusive right of the US."

His comments came on a day when tension was apparent in Pyongyang, with an air-raid drill that cleared the city's streets and the North's announcement that it has begun full-scale operations at the Yongbyon nuclear plant, the suspected site of weapons-grade plutonium production.

Since reopening the plant in December, the North has kicked out international inspectors and withdrawn from the global treaty to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.

Anxiety in North Korea has been rising since Washington announced plans in the past week to beef up its military strength in the area. Additional bombers will be sent to the region, along with 2,000 extra troops who will serve alongside the 17,000 already stationed on the North-South border. USS Carl Vinson may also be deployed.

According to Pyongyang, the USS Kitty Hawk has already taken up strike position in waters off the peninsula. The US says that reinforcements are needed to warn Pyongyang that it should not try to take advantage of Washington's focus on Iraq.

North Korean officials fear the extra forces are the start of the build-up for a full-scale confrontation - a dangerous assumption that could push the peninsula over the edge.

During the last crisis, when the Pentagon planned a surgical strike on the Yongbyon nuclear plant, American generals were convinced that the North would rather launch a surprise attack than wait for a US military build-up.

Mr Ri said today's stand-off is more dangerous: "The present situation can be called graver than it was in 1993. It will be touch and go."

Ag MountainRPowell, sector on shorts#9686002/05/03; 19:52:01

sector on shorts, with COMEX in mind, looks alot like sector on Kinross. Remember that one? lol

He got one part right, though.

"there is nothing to stop a government entity from papering the gold market [Its natural competitor] to zero."

Too bad in context he was using it as a "can't happen" expample, though. lol

Keep trying, RPowell. You might get through to him eventually. Tell him the following story.

Today was a perfect day for the locals and anyone else with a short bias to run down the paper in NY. Everybody and their uncle who wanted to be long had made a point to establish all their positions before the Colin Powell presentation. That had been a stiff wind of buying pressure, but when the big event arrived they were spent and the short interests took advantage of the easy opportunity to sell a chunk of goldless short contracts to run the stops. They fell like dominoes. No gold needed to do the job of driving that wimpy market down. That's why the smart guys are preaching physical, so that people don't get raped so easy like the futures players today. I guess those guys can say they got some, but not the kind to be bragging about. lol

silvergolong@ sector, R Powel -- is it possible you BOTH may be right?#9686102/05/03; 19:59:09

My understanding of the gold leasing market is that bullion banks lease central bank gold, take possession of it, and sell it into the physical marketplace. They then take the cash and invest it in paper assets. The end date on the lease is negotiable, and probably can be rolled over without much effort. In other words, this is more of an OTC-type market, featuring face-to-face deals where relationships can be leveraged in case someone needs a little flexibility.

This is separate and distinct from the futures market, which is an exchange market. The bullion banks can't sell futures contracts to raise cash, because they need to put the cash to work for an indeterminate length of time, whereas futures contracts have a fixed expiration that must be respected. So the bullion banks go to the central banks and avail themselves of leasing in order to raise funds to perpetrate whatever return-generating schemes they have in mind.

I think what R Powell is talking about is futures contracts (not gold leasing), which (I believe) can be written completely naked. In fact the COMEX silver exchange rules state you can write unlimited amounts of silver futures, but you are limited in the number of contracts you can buy. That's how they screwed the Hunt brothers.

Of course, the bullion banks might get into the futures market as well, in order to sell as many futures contracts as it takes to keep the price down for long enough to get out of their lease deals, or for whatever other reason they might deem expedient. The point is, the different markets might serve different purposes: they use the futures market to manipulate prices, and they use the leasing market to generate cash to put to work to generate real returns.

As an aside, the OTC gold derivatives that everyone talks about (i.e. JPM and Citibank) are probably gold leases or some kind of customized, special purpose deals related to gold leasing. In fact, by definition, these OTC derivatives CANNOT be futures, because futures are exchange-traded, not OTC.

So maybe you guys are trying to compare apples and oranges... can anyone check my thinking here??

ElGordoIndia's first bullion bank#9686202/05/03; 20:04:34

Mumbai, February 5:ICICI Bank is fast preparing to become a full-fledged bullion bank by offering a slew of gold-related products, including paper gold, that can be traded on any exchange — existing or new. This follows the bank's launch of ICICI Gold Coins in December last, which was the country's first formal offering of gold as an investment product by any recognised agency.

Interestingly, ICICI Bank's foray into gold is being fully supported by the London-based World Gold Council (WGC), a non-profit entity of the world's gold-producing companies. Currently, the 20-odd entities permitted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to import gold function only as consignment agents for the gold-consuming industry — jewellery-makers and exporters. A bullion bank, however, is more than a consignment agent and offers a range of gold-related investment products, including physical and paper gold.

The bank's formal foray into gold comes at a time when the precious yellow metal is once again gaining in importance the worldover compared with equities and the US dollar. Even RBI, in consultation with the government, is cautiously relaxing its policies on gold, which is expected to give a fillip to the concept of bullion banking in India.

R PowellSector#9686302/05/03; 20:07:33

And so we continue,
Your words......

"There can be no short contract established in gold without first obtaining ownership of a contract that indirectly represents the metal…a gold loan, swap or forward sale [As from a gold producer].

If your mistaken premise that no metal ned be borrowed were true there would be no loans, swaps or forward sales on the books of the central banks."

The first statement is simply not true. I'll find some quotes with references later. For now, let me say that I've often shorted silver, corn, the S+P index number and other commodities with no more backing than my margin. Indeed, the exchange differentiates between those that produce and/or use a commodity (called commercials) and those who neither produce nor use but nevertheless enter into contract agreements (called speculators). The specs provide the liquidity so that buyers and sellers are always available so that producers can sell and buyers can buy anytime but these speculators neither own nor use the product.

However, I'd like to question your logic in the second statement. How does the fact that shorting can be done without any ownership, possession or loan lead you to conclude that this (true) fact means that "there would be no loans, swaps or forward sales on the books of the central banks?

Unbacked shorting of commodites is not only possible but an everyday occurance among those called speculative players.
If those banks you mentioned want to engage in loans, swaps or forward sales they can. If they simply want to short gold, they can. If they want to do both, they can.
Please call any commodity broker and ask if you can sell what you do not have in the commodities market. Also refer back to post 95541.

ElGordoLooming meltdown in stocks?#9686402/05/03; 20:17:34

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - Financial markets are exhibiting serious signs of stress.

Researcher Paul F. Desmond sees increased indicators of a looming meltdown in stocks. Desmond has distinguished himself from most other U.S. strategists by his assertion that the stock market, with valuations not far from all-time highs, has yet to experience the intense selling needed to create true bargain hunting.
I was in a currency exchange store today and found out
they were out of 10 oz silver bullion bars. They were running
low on 50 oz bars and had trouble getting stock. The owner
saw me and mentioned he thought it was smart to buy silver.
Just thought I'd mention it. No biggie

Re: Sec State Powell speach- buy on rumor sell on news, profit taking. In bull markets you see sharp dramatic corrections.
With long term US deficits piling up its a buying opportunity
I would guess. IMHO

sector@ Silvergolong After hours this evening there were many contracts offered below market#9686502/05/03; 20:20:51

"My understanding of the gold leasing market is that bullion banks lease central bank gold, take possession of it, and sell it into the physical marketplace "

You are correct in your beliefs.

One can always buy future gold contracts with dollars. One can profit hansomely by purchasing and demanding delivery. It's just that one cannot sell short without an underlying source pool of metal.

The fact that several central bank vaults are half or in some cases 90% empty while they claim the gold as a receivable is strong evidence of the truth that gold loans, swaps and forward sales drain real metal. Metal that in all likelihood will never be returned.

The contracts offered after hours were obtained from a source of gold loans. swaps or forward sales.

@agmountain Please explain why the central governments have not sold gold to zero with their paper money as you seem to imply?

R PowellSector#9686602/05/03; 20:30:08

Short selling

Page 92-93 of Jake Bernstein's "How the Futures Markets Work" published by New York Institute of Finance gives a very good explanation (with examples) of short selling. It confirms that no title or ownership of any kind is necessary to short sell.
This book is a common bookstore item. It's in Chapter 6, "The Basics of Tradings Futures", pages 92-93 in my paperback edition.
If your intent is to actually deliver gold on notice day through a futures contract then gold, in the acceptable form must be produced, of course, but the "having" is not a requirement of shorting gold. Remember, approximately 98% of all contracts are settled by offset which means cash gains or losses, no physical anything.
I think we have beaten this issue to death and other members of the forum are likely to start throwing rocks at us soon. However, I think we conducted ourselves well and hopefully others can decide for themselves. It is (imho) a relevent topic. Perhaps some others who trade can confirm my view? Anyone?

canamamiIs HK gold market open today?#9686702/05/03; 20:35:26

Does HK gold market close for Lunar New Year? POG on a real roller coaster ride.
Ag Mountainsector, your question to me is not an issue#9686802/05/03; 20:40:45

Zero isn't in any CBs best interest. That's the short but full answer to your question. Your attempt to change the direction of this is an easy dodge usually used by people when they find that their own case is lost. You're not giving up already are you? It looks like you understand a thing or two about bullion banking, but your ability to connect the dots is awul. You can't seem to figure out how the exchanges like COMEX factor in, and you're trying to connect dots that don't connect. Your mixing apples and oranges indiscriminately and selling us lemons. I'm just trying to help in the same way a farmer gives directions without leaving his hoe to do the driving for the lost guys.
Ag Mountaincanamami, that holiday aleady ended Monday#9686902/05/03; 20:46:30

Hong Kong trading resumed on Tuesday the fourth of February.
knotakareSmoke is thick, but few can smell it#9687002/05/03; 20:46:47

Who will write the story, of the destruction of our beloved western civilization? Surely someone is feeding of this cruelty we see, and can tell the tale.

Belgium, you are so right, that the walking dollar corpse is getting angry, and seeks to destroy any in its path. We now glorify speculators, and traders, but do we know that it is the farmers that we will need to save us.

I personally am getting tired at watching this destruction, on trying to understand all the details of manipulation, and countermanipulation. I want to take my onces and pray they can save me and my loved ones from some of the vast depravation the west will soon know.

Although I find speculation very interesting, I can see that it can also destroy you. I want no part of that.

I know this is a gloomy post, but this is how I feel today. I don't care if the price of gold goes up or down, I just am happy to own some.

R PowellArticfox#9687102/05/03; 21:11:13

It appears that Sinclair is suggesting some possible officially recognised monetary reconnection between gold and paper money. He calls this a "Gold Cover Clause".

Is he perhaps also including silver here, as in a two metal loosely backed monetary system? When he opines that silver "would take the front running position" is he refering to the fact that there is more gold in a monetary backing form than there is silver? Physicalman just mentioned some numbers pertaining to both gold and silver and percentages of what may now remain (in readily available form?) of each. Thanks, physicalman, I always enjoy and learn from your offerings. I was green with envy when you mentioned the size of your positions recently. Wowsers!

Silvergolong, Agree entirely. The Comex and other silver exchanges are entirely paper games. I don't believe any silver flows through Comex between producers and users. This idea struck Morgan as very likely to be true and is his opinion also. I like to call Comex silver "the silver of last resort".

Note for Sector, Butler has reported that there is more silver shorted on Comex than exists in the entire world! No ownership required for shorting. To short stocks (equities) "borrowing" is required as you correctly stated. This is not required with commodities.

GaleriderSPOT#9687202/05/03; 21:16:05

I think Gandalf is feeding Spot dollar bills to help him recover. This morning the dollar was gaining strength, this afternoon as I type, the NIKEEI is red and the Euro is gaining.
sector@ RichP Say you short gold...#9687302/05/03; 21:16:56

...what gold did you sell?

In an earlier post you suggested that central banks had not appreciably lost their gold in the loan issue, that their gold was pretty much still in the vaults...that the paper gold market didn't really require metal...that the loans could be settled for paper.

The facts suggest otherwise and can be seen clearly at the cafe in "Gold Receivables and Gold". There is a substantial loss of central bank physical gold into the world markets by direct audit of the respective annual reports and by direct inspection of the central babnk's central bank, the BIS's "Held in bars" historical category. Search

I have suggested that an underlying gold loan, swap or forward sale is required to short gold. Perhaps I should make it crystal clear for the benefit of new commers.

The market maker COMEX must provide liquidity in the form of metal. THAT metal came from loans, swaps and forward sales. It appears obvious that an individual customer need not call a central bank and borrow gold to short it.

Perhaps I should have been clearer.

The logic of central bank gold loans supplying markets:

Large gold market liquidity [500 tonnes per day on the LBMA] requires large gold loans. If there were no requirement for metallic loans etc., the central banks would still have all their gold because there would not be a market consumption force. The central banks manifestly do not have all their gold. Thus, the markets consume metal, lots of metal…16,000 tonnes of gold. According to the BIS Triennial report. The market has consumed loaned gold.

The concept of required market making liquidity is what I am speaking about. They are real loans and swaps for real metal even though not all of the contracts go to delivery. No loans, no liquidity. Without liquidity, which is the warehouse of paper gold loans there can be no market. The gold loan liquidity is far larger than the depository physical bars, though it is not seen but is quite real.

Without liquidity there would be no metal to sell short and no expectation of getting metal delivered when one buys long. Gold loans provide the liquidity without which the COMEX or LBMA could not exist. Your commodities broker just doesn't see that liquidity when he or she takes out a short contract.

Liquidity is the pool of metal I referred to from which one borrows to sell short.

Ray PattenSelling Gold short...#9687402/05/03; 21:29:43

I have been trading commodities for 40 years. All that you need to sell Gold short at the current time is $1350. However, if you stay short beyond 1st notice day, you better have Gold to deliver. That is how the market is kept honest.
sector@agmountain zero gold is exactly what the central governments want#9687502/05/03; 21:31:02

because that would mean their un-backed fiat paper had won the...

...ultimate gold war. The barbarous relic dead at last.

So...why hasn't the government sold gold to zero with their pretty paper on your no-metal-required markets?

ElGordoWorst hiring slump in 20 years#9687602/05/03; 21:40:35

The American economy has fallen into its worst hiring slump in almost 20 years, and many business executives say they remain unsure when it will end.

With economic growth having slowed to less than 1 percent in recent months, about one million people appear to have dropped out of the labor force, neither working nor looking for a job, according to government figures.

The surge in discouraged workers is the most significant since the months immediately following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and it suggests that the pain of joblessness is worsening even though the nation's official unemployment rate, which counts only people looking for work, held steady at 6 percent in December.

The lack of jobs has also slowed wage growth, so that only workers in the most affluent group are still gaining ground on inflation, ending a six-year streak of increases in buying power across the board.
Sounds like a recession to me.

R PowellSilvergolong#9687702/05/03; 21:42:05

Your 96861 post is EXACTLY CORRECT !!

Thank you!

I believe I've repeatedly stated that what I'm refering to is the futures markets, in the case of gold- Comex. Lord only knows what secret OTC deals involving gold have been dreamed up over the last 5000 years.
I see evidence of both naked short selling in Comex and the leasing (selling) of gold as in the gold carry trade as means of surpressing the POG. I do know if the carry trade was initiated to lower the POG (I believe it existed because it was profitable) but the carry trade did lower the POG or that Comex short selling is intended to lower the POG (although it does) rather than make paper fiat profits for those who believe the price will drop so that they can buy back at a lower price, but both have the effect or result in lowering the POG. It's a matter of intent.

Perhaps this will help....
Selling of leased, swaped or otherwise entitled physical gold can be done to recieve payment in full (even if nothing other than a certificate is given in return for payment).

Selling of Comex gold requires only margin for the seller (and for the buyer), BUT the seller does NOT recieve any payment from the buyer unless/until delivery is made or the trade if favorable (read profitably) offset. Even then, it is the broker's clearinghouse that "credits" the account. The point being, naked selling on Comex does not provide the sellor with any payment up front for selling that which he does not have. Again, think of buying or selling the S+P number and then offsetting for a gain or loss. No one delivers or takes delivery of the number, no one owns or has title to the number but anyone with an account can buy or sell it!

Black BladeMarket Wrap Up – Puplava#9687802/05/03; 21:48:21


They're Not Coming Back

Today was a day like many other days in the market. The headlines all looked familiar. There was nothing extraordinary. No surprises or curve balls that would have taken the markets by surprise. Secretary of State Colin Powell told the UN that Iraq was hiding chemical weapons in underground bunkers, which was no surprise, and France and Russia urged more time for inspections. In Venezuela Chavez extends his rule and power by bringing sanctions against the main television station in the country for airing coverage of the workers strike that was unfavorable towards government. Venezuela, under Chavez, is transforming itself from a democracy to a Marxist dictatorship.

On the economic front it was more of the same. El Paso Corp., the largest U.S. owner of natural gas pipelines, slashed its dividend and boosted asset sales in order to reduce debt. Wells Fargo, the largest U.S. mortgage lender, was threatened by California authorities with loss of its license amid state allegations the bank overcharged borrowers. Agilent Technologies said its losses were wider than forecast due to slowing sales. Todd Eberhard, a New York Stockbroker, and frequent guest on financial television was arrested Wednesday on federal charges alleging he cheated clients out of millions of dollars. Cisco Systems, the largest maker of computer networking equipment, reported a 50 percent jump in income for the latest quarter despite a drop in sales. The increase in profits was the result of cost cutting and the exclusion of major expenses. The company warned that sales, which have been falling, could drop again this quarter.

The stories above of new scandals, geopolitical risks, slowing sales and profits have now become ordinary. It takes a real shocker to move the markets because these kinds of stories are so commonplace. No one is surprised by fraud anymore, nor are they moved by political risks.

Black Blade: yeah, the news gets worse day by day and investors don't even bat an eye anymore as if it's business as usual. They are just too afraid to face reality and are stunned like a deer caught in the headlights. The only real refuge has been precious metals. Even energy has been a poor performer except a very few select niche sub-sectors and a few regulated utilities. Other than that the whole equities market has been a disaster for investors and retirees who have seen their hopes and dreams vaporized by negligent financial managers or who were seduced by the carnival barkers on CNBC. These are "interesting times".

physicalmanR Powell#9687902/05/03; 21:55:52

Hi, was not trying to brag when i posted my position the other night,just trying to show that when i state something about the PM's (especially silver)i am solidly behind my beliefs. Most of that silver i accumulated over the last 16 years from pawnbrokers plus small dealers who want individual coins from a collection they are buying and they don't have the money to buy and hold the bulk silver. Also have 2 -55 gallon drums of wheat pennies and a 5 gallon water jug of buffalo nickels. If everything went to hell in a handbasket they might be worth something too. I have always loved coins/collecting. Started collecting when i was 8 (paper route) and several times got behind paying my bill because i did not want to let go of any silver 90%
Have always lived way below my means,frugal..OK i'm a tightwad! There i said it! One friend said i was tighter than a bridge bolt stuck in a knitting needle.
Except for the big spree from 77 to 80 have not picked up much gold from my sources for silver, so most of my au positions are from marketmakers such as our fine hosts here.
Remember folks our hosts have a lot of capital in play in the PM markets and will be here to buy/sell in up or down markets. They are true heros to the cause!

Chris PowellAndy Smith talks his book -- and it might be wrong#9688002/05/03; 21:56:40

GATA consultant Bob Landis explains why Andy
Smith of gold-short Mitsui just might be wrong
about gold's prospects.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

21mabrygold market#9688102/05/03; 21:58:32

One thing i learned playing sports,dont get to excited about a win,and dont get to down about a loss,keep a even keel.I think that may be good advice as we watch this gold market and await its outcome
Black BladeU.S. Energy Companies Facing $100 Billion Debt Bill #9688202/05/03; 22:17:17


Washington, Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. energy companies have more than $100 billion in debt coming due this year, much of which will have to be refinanced if more bankruptcies are to be avoided, a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission official said. Utilities, power producers and pipeline companies have $84 billion in short-term debt and more than $20 billion in long- term obligations maturing in 2003, said William Hederman, director of the commission's market-monitoring office. They have another $20 billion due in each of the following three years, he said. Allegheny Energy Inc., Mirant Corp. and others have said they may be forced to declare bankruptcy if they can't refinance debts. Standard & Poor's last year downgraded such companies more than 180 times, according to Hederman, as trading collapsed and power prices fell in the wake of Enron Corp.'s demise. ``The credit ratings of companies continue to go in a negative direction,'' Hederman told a commission conference in Washington. Further downgrades so far this year ``indicate more of the same, rather than that we've reached the turnaround.''

Black Blade: Most of these companies only have themselves to blame. The lure of easy money and a buying binge led them to take on more debt than they could possibly have managed even in the best of times. Now "natural selection" will take its course and the best with little debt will survive and the rest will sell off assets and eventually be owned by the lenders.

Trojan@ ElGordo Re: Your # 96859 North Korea#9688302/05/03; 22:27:45


I think we all pride ourselves here on the USAGOLD Forum of being very aware and up to date on not only Gold and Silver and The Financial Markets but World Affairs as that is what Affects all the above.

The above Link Re: North Korea in my opinion is an Extremely IMPORTANT one to Read.

This is Public Testimony in the last day or so in front of a Us Government Body.

It is NOT only Scary but disturbing.

I am posting it not only for Information and Knowledge purposes but Also as a HEADS UP as to the possible effect on World Markets as the seriousness of this rapidly developing Situation unfolds.

Just look at ElGordo's Post # 96859.

I would appreciate any feedback that folks here care to offer.

We live in DRAMATIC Times.

TrojanSnippet Re: My # 96883#9688402/05/03; 22:34:05

Tuesday, February 4, 2003

Ashton B. Carter
Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project
John F. Kennedy School of Government
Harvard University

Mr. Chairman and members of the Committee on Foreign Relations, thank you for inviting me to appear before this Committee to share my recollections about two previous crises with North Korea, and my suggestions regarding the current crisis.

I am not an expert on North Korea. I am fond of saying that there are no real experts on this strange place, only specialists, and they don't seem to have much expertise. I became acquainted with Korean affairs in seat-of-the-pants fashion when I was serving as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy in 1994, when the first of the recent crises over North Korea sprang up.

That spring North Korea was planning to take fuel rods out of its research reactor at Yongbyon and extract the six or so bombs' worth of weapons-grade plutonium they contained. The United States was trying to deal diplomatically with this threat, but in the Pentagon we were also exploring military options. Secretary of Defense William J. Perry ordered the preparation of a plan to eliminate Yongbyon with an airstrike of conventional precision weapons. We were very confident that such a strike would eliminate the reactor and entomb the plutonium, and would also eliminate the other facilities at Yongbyon that were part of North Korea's plutonium infrastructure. In particular, we were confident that we could destroy a nuclear reactor of this kind while it was operating without causing any Chernobyl-type radioactive plume to be emitted downwind -- obviously an important consideration. Such a strike would effectively set back North Korea's nuclear ambitions many years.

Trojan: Amazing and we are going after Iraq and Ignoring North Korea.

God help us All

ElGordoThanks Trojan#9688502/05/03; 22:48:02

Snippet from Trojan article:

News reports late last week indicated that not only is the freeze no longer on at Yongbyon, but North Korea is trucking the fuel rods away where they can neither be inspected nor entombed by an airstrike. This is the disaster we faced in 1994. But as this loose nukes disaster unfolds and the options for dealing with it narrow, the world does nothing. This is especially ironic as the world prepares to disarm Iraq of chemical and biological weapons, by force if necessary. What is going on at Yongbyon as we speak is a huge foreign policy defeat for the United States and a setback for decades of U.S. nonproliferation policy. Worse, seventeen months after 9/11 it opens up a new prospect for nuclear terrorism. There are no fewer than five reasons why allowing North Korea to go nuclear with serial production of weapons is an unacceptable threat to U.S. security.
This is like a bad "B" movie-Yipes!

Daniel Druffsilvergolong#9688602/05/03; 22:59:30


"Druff, you are correct, there are many many more valuable uses for silver than throwaway cameras. Silver is a miracle handed down straight from God's hands to us, and yet we treat it with no respect. But our economy--as well as our attitudes about almost everything that is paper and illusory--will have to change profoundly before silver is unchained. Passing a "frivolous use" tax won't be the answer."

You also are correct, of course. But the question really needs to be answered: Is the deficit in the silver supply largely due to the frivolous use of silver in photography?

It's possible that you and R Powell don't have the answer. That's no shame...I doubt that Messrs. Butler and Morgan do either. Nor does sector. I certainly don't know.

The underlying purpose for proposing a Frivolous Use Tax is to draw attention to the wonderful benefits of silver for mankind. Like you, I believe silver is a gift from God.

Those of us who have been fortunate enough to secure physical gold are in pretty good share at the moment. Many of our friends and loved ones have missed the boat, much to their chagrin. It would be in poor form to say, "I told you so." but it won't take much encouragement from us, this time, to convince them that the "poor man's gold" is not too far away from climbing off the deck and heading north. Many of these people have only a fraction of their stake left. The one solid play they have left is silver. The problem with silver is one of image. And it is a major one.

You gentlemen are correct in reminding us that basic unfettered economics, supply and demand, will win out in the long run. The consistent increase in the M3 and the corresponding decrease in the world's silver supply will overwhelm the bears, eventually. In the meantime we can expect to see the Kodaks of the world benefit from a subsidy of sorts...the continuation of ineffective silver promotions which will continue to foster an image of silver as the white 'trash' metal...throwaway cameras! Silver is better than that.

Thank you

slingshotSiege Engine#9688702/05/03; 23:12:52

Golds Acension

The dogs stood motionless and when the first appearance of a horses head, you could hear a low growl. The horseman had instinctivly pulled back on the reigns and all stayed in place. Seconds past and then a familiar voice was heard.
Slingshot call off your dogs. It is I, Boaz. I whistled and Sadie and Wallie come to my side and sat down. Jachin rounded the trail and it was good to see friends. Placing my sword back into the sheath I asked. Who sent you to find me. Sir Rock said Boaz. I smiled. How are things at the castle. Jachin dismounting exclaimed. The days you have been gone has seen the council chamber alight many hours into the night. Stephen the Great has brought those from the Valley of Clouds, which once lived in those lands of the flags you seen in the courtyard. Much discussion. Riders have been sent south. They shall contact friends of Stephen the Great for help. Tell me Boaz, How did you find me here? Simple Slingshot, your horses backshoe has a cut in it and leaves a mark on the ground anyone can follow. I just lowered and shook my head.

What news do you have for us,Slingshot? Come over here and see for yourselves.The three approached the edge and looked out upon the open plain where armies now engaged in battle, move back and forth. I see three. The King with No Name is at the base of the mountain range and has repelled many assaults.The red and black fight for position but send forces against the King to test his strenght.

Jachin then spoke. There is another army a half days march in the east. They have green flags with cresent moon.

I have seen their scouts, said Slingshot.

Soon our people will march here and we all will be in the mix of it. Said Jachin.

They watch pieces of the chessboard move about, and clouds took the sun away.

Black BladeAmerican invaders 'will be eaten like rabbits'#9688802/05/03; 23:17:19,,3-566645,00.html


An estimated quarter of Iraq's women are volunteer fighters. They are trained to strip down a rifle and to throw a grenade. They have also learnt how to skin and disembowel a rabbit. It was a skill, one woman said, that would come in handy if she ran into any American soldiers.

Black Blade: Oh my, I don't want to be eaten like a rabbit. Hmmm…

ElGordoTo all Silverbugs#9688902/05/03; 23:23:37

I'm amazed at all the talk about Silver lately.

I was going to wait but I will say that in a few days
I will have my hands on a news story that just might
help move Silver a bit.

I've been working on it for 2 weeks and I will post it
in a few days. It will be positive news for Silverbugs.

I feel Silver really is a "Magical Metal" it has so many
incredible uses!

Sleep Tight!

The Invisible HandOpec member pegs currency to US dollar#9689002/05/03; 23:45:05

Thursday, 6 February, 2003, 06:04 GMT
Venezuela pegs currency to US dollar

Venezuela has pegged its currency at a rate 17% stronger than what it last traded at to protect its foreign cash reserves.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez made the move as a two-month old strike by right-wing opposition groups continues to drag on the economy.
The government fixed the exchange rate at 1,598 bolivars to the US dollar.
The Venezuelan currency last traded at 1,853 to the dollar when the government halted trade on 22 January.
More soon.
Golden opportunity for euro oil pricing?

WaveriderBlack Blade#9689102/05/03; 23:45:29

...come on BB, get philosophical - it's just karma on behalf of all the elk, duck, and fish in your freezer. ;o)
slingshot(No Subject)#9689202/05/03; 23:59:04

I think Spot is awake.


Black BladeU.S. jobless figures ignore rising frustration #968932/6/03; 00:23:02


The American economy has fallen into its worst hiring slump in almost 20 years, and many business executives say they remain unsure when it will end. With economic growth having slowed to less than 1 percent in recent months, about 1 million people appear to have dropped out of the labor force, neither working nor looking for a job, according to government figures. The surge in discouraged workers is the most significant since the months immediately following the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. It suggests that the pain of joblessness is worsening even though the official unemployment rate, which counts only people looking for work, held steady at 6 percent in December.
In the last two months of 2002, the employment decline became even worse than it had been at a comparable point in the so-called jobless recovery of the early 1990s, according to recently revised statistics from the Department of Labor. The U.S. economy has lost more than 2 million jobs, a drop of 1.5 percent, since the recent recession began in March 2001, as layoffs have continued despite the resumption of economic growth more than a year ago. The decline was 1.3 percent at the same point in the business cycle a decade ago.
The rapid disappearance of jobs is mirrored in Europe, where economic slowing triggered by the faltering U.S. recovery has helped fuel a rise in unemployment rates. Unemployment in Germany climbed to a four-and-a-half year high in January, figures showed Wednesday, increasing the risk that the largest European economy will trip into its second recession in two years. In France, joblessness has risen to a two-year high.
American executives are now saying they have been disappointed too many times already by the halting growth of the past year to begin hiring workers in significant numbers. Although the government is likely to report on Friday that the economy added some jobs in January, many executives are waiting to be convinced that business has regained a solid footing after the collapse of the late-90's economic bubble. The possibility of a war in Iraq and an increase in oil prices offers another reason for hesitation, they say.
The bigger problem seems to be companies' unwillingness to hire new workers. In December, the number of help-wanted advertisements in newspapers across the country fell to the lowest level in almost 40 years, according to the Conference Board, a research group in New York. An unusually large number of today's unemployed have been out of work for months. Almost 1.9 million people still looking for work have been unemployed for at least six months, triple the number of two years ago. Many other people seem to have stopped looking. Since June, the number of adults not in the labor force has jumped by more than 1 million, to 72.4 million, according to the Labor Department. Many are retired, still in school or raising children, but the sharp change suggests that a growing number have become too frustrated to continue applying for jobs.

Black Blade: As I have been saying all along. The "official unemployment rate" in the US is 6%, however, it is estimated to be closer to 12%. Once benefits are exhausted the unemployed are magically considered employed by the BLS. The recession is deepening and actual unemployment is rising with no end in sight. Another impact on the economy is the growing number of unemployed selling stocks to live on depleting retirement funds and driving the Bear Market on Wall Street. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months' expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities. It's going to get very ugly out there.

Black BladeWaverider - Karma#968942/6/03; 00:32:52

Speaking of Karma. It reminds me of an old Far Side cartoon where Col. Sanders is standing at the Pearly Gates and sitting behind the desk staring at the "book of life" is a chicken. And Col. Sanders is thinking "oh oh".

- Black Blade

TopazPaper Avalanche (02/05/03; 15:53:15MT - msg#: 96832)#968952/6/03; 00:52:54

My sentiments exactly PA!
I wonder how many more "Smoking Guns" it's gonna take before the Gold "investment" brigade wake up to the fact that their investment strategy is shot full of holes!

The Papergold Market won't fail from a lack of Paper!

Black BladeAsian Markets Awash in Red#968962/6/03; 00:56:24

Asian markets took a hit across the board tonight and the Euro markets look set to do the same.

- Black Blade

TopazDaniel.#968972/6/03; 01:10:39

Noticed you credited mois for a posting on Silver yesterday...not mine sire, maybe that other "T" poster who,I might add, is providing a wealth of varied information for our collective absorption and dissemination.
I speak of the good Sir Trojan.

Cheers...You and He/She !

SteveHSilvercollector#968982/6/03; 01:22:21

Or, it could be that the new Sec. Treas. is now in place. I seem to remember that within days of the Lindsey/O'Neil departure, gold began its rise.
Ag Mountainsame answer to sector again#968992/6/03; 01:29:48

msg#: 96875 You are being overly dramatic. Governments, esp. those aligned with the dollar, haven't sold gold to zero because that extremis wasn't necessary. The bull markets of the 80's and 90's did fine with gold merely kept down in the hundreds instead of the thousands.

The governments' biggest role keeping gold at bay against the dollar was mostly done by giving legal recognition for the commercial framework of the naked exchanges to exist in the style used at COMEX. Also for banking operations to keep using bullion like fiat currency in all manners of financial packages even after official gold-currencies ties were severed by collective IMF agreements. Both sides contribute to the illusion of cheap gold but you're mixing up the truth because you can't seem to tell where one ends and the other begins. COMEX is as plain and easy as the nose on your face. Start there and when you understand it you can move on productively to the black box of OTC, but you won't understand that until you understand banking, which takes about 4 lifetimes by my calculations. Were any of your father's fathers in the business? Have a child and pass the torch if you can't get there from a late start. It's worth the effort, or else keep it simple and just by gold from your heart if your brain doesn't know exactly the reasons why.

ElGordoN Korea threatens total war#969002/6/03; 01:46:29

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said Thursday that any U.S. attack on its nuclear facilities would bring a "powerful counterattack" from the communist state that would mean "total war."

"When the U.S. makes a surprise attack on our peaceful nuclear facilities it will spark off a total war," the North's ruling party newspaper Rodong Sinmun said in a commentary.

"It is foolish for the U.S. to think that we sit idle with folded arms to wait until it gives orders for a forestalling attack to be started," said the commentary published in English by the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

"We will answer a forestalling attack with a powerful counterattack and a total war with a total war," it said in the latest of series of belligerent statements on the four-month-old nuclear impasse with the United States.

Caradoc(No Subject)#969012/6/03; 02:09:27

Insightful article showing that Greenspan based interest rates on POG (in effect, sort of maintaining the gold standard) until 6 Dec 1996 -- the day he made his "irrational exuberance" speech and the last time that gold was above $370. Raises the possibility that he may have seen the error of his ways since that date as indicated by his recent speech.

My apologies if this link was provided earlier, but did a quick skim of the day's posts and it didn't jump out at me. Hope you all see as much of interest here as I do.

The Invisible HandIs anybody awake while reading, or rather writing on, this Forum?#969022/6/03; 02:45:19

The link is about French claim Airbus victory in India
Snip: "The relationship between Airbus and India is about more than trade. It involves a true industrial partnership," [French Prime Minister Raffarin] said.

This the latest also from
Thursday, 6 February, 2003, 09:02 GMT
LATEST: France says time not right for second UN resolution on Iraq. More soon.

The name Jean-Claude Trichet, does it ring some bells with you?

Did anybody notice that our darling moved within a range of $16 yesterday?

The only reference yesterday to the GoldTrail was
Paper Avalanche (02/05/03; 15:53:15MT - msg#: 96832)
Markets failing up or down?
If we accept the theories posited on the golden trail ...

Paper Avalanche only went into the burning of dollar paper. He didn't go into the new paper which is not planned to be avalanched in the short term and which will replace the dollar.

Is there nobody, except Belgian, here who believes A/FOA when they say that the dollar's timeline is up?

Are most posters here North-Americans and are they now afraid of the dollar's collapse? Thirteen months ago, i.e. the last time FOA visited us, most people were not afraid of talking about the dollar's collapse. Why the sudden silence?

Does anybody realize that the war can be averted by simply changing the oil currency? Hence my Venezuela post of yesterday evening.

" It seems that we can learn more about aims of our politics from our enemies than from our own politicians." Foreigner

TopazBonds#969032/6/03; 02:46:33

The rabid dogs in the Bond pit are to get a new bone to chow down on....a 3yr maggot infested morsel.
War Bond by any other name I'm thinkin.

TopazTIH#969042/6/03; 03:21:45

Hi Mr Hand,
Don't fret, we're watching.
The "Game" has largely moved April. I'd doubt if the FoA "selloff" (I'm thinking that's what you're referring to) will materialise from the 3000 odd (300K oz) left to settle in Feb.
I have been wrong before though .....once!
It would seem Papergold is being jammed back in it's currency box, for now. Don't expect too much from the Euro yet, she's going up against the Champion of the World...whatsmore the Champ has seen her coming. We don't want her to go in underdone do we?

Belgian"Save the Bears " by Bob Landis - Golden Sextant.#969052/6/03; 03:52:17

A "Bravo" essay ! High Quality. Thanks to Sir B.Landis and entourage. But....
For who knows "what" reason...the A/FOA-factors are, again, completely left out of the equations.
Gold, the dollar-reserve, the euro and Arabian Crude, interactions...remain on the far away sidelines.

Still a lot of doubt, about Physical Gold Accumulation that is in the process of challenging all paper.

The Tony Bennet / Saddam-intervieuw (Thanks foreigner) gives evidence of the dramatic deep-sea, cross currents !
This was not a show-talk with sensationalism as a purpose ! It was about Crude Oil...The World's crude oil as of International interest. A vital determinant in this extremely vulnarable period of grandioze paper-overvaluation or outright worthlesness ! Yes indeed Sir Topaz..." How did all that oil got under the Arabian sands" ?

Physical Gold, knows that the paper-markets can't "FIX" it anymore. Time out for further improvisations. Bob Landis is still in doubt about this. I'm not ! The East is not in doubt either.

Yes, the biting, kicking, struggling dollar-reserve, keeps on trying to divide Euroland AND ITS EURO_CONCEPT! Daily, factual evidence for that. This dynamical process will never see a finalized outcome. But GOLD will continiously profit from, and during the ongoing struggle. The paper mismatch will crash upon the rising GOLD FLOOR ! And from thereon, take a new start. That's *catalysed* by the euro-concept and its loyal adherents !

White RoseLets do these last 2 days over again#969062/6/03; 04:42:05

Look at the Kitco graph. We are at the exact same position and the exact same slope that we were exactly 48 hours ago. So ... we have "lost" 48 hours of progress.

I appreciate the comments made that a slow and steady progress in the gold curve is tolerated/encouraged by the PTB. The curve went out of control (rose too fast). Gold has been asked, very politely to do these days over again without the outsized gains. We are clearly headed for 600-700 per oz by the end of the year.

TopazBelgian TiH.#969072/6/03; 04:48:47

The magnitude and gravity of the current situation hasn't been acknowledged by many as the Frog in the broiling pot, he doesn't EVER realise he's being boiled to death.
This is classic 1929...the SM rout, interest rate decline, insipient disinflation, it took WW2 to sort that one out.
GWB etal figure, why wait 10 Yr's, let's pretend to get it on NOW! Crank up the Bond presses, take their mind off the Dollar plight and work to reflate the American Markets.
If this doesn't work it's curtains for old Buckaroo.

It's GOT TO be a Dollar thing Gent's, The Euro MUST silently watch and wait imho.

You don't hear much of the "RISE" of the Roman Empire do you?

misetichU.S. Economy in Worst Hiring Slump in 20 Years#969082/6/03; 05:20:30


The economy has fallen into its worst hiring slump in almost 20 years, and many business executives say they remain unsure when it will end.
The employment decline has become even worse than it was at a comparable point in the so-called jobless recovery of the early 1990's, according to recently revised statistics from the Labor Department. The economy has lost more than two million jobs, a drop of 1.5 percent, since the most recent recession began in March 2001, as layoffs have continued despite the resumption of economic growth more than a year ago. The decline was 1.3 percent at the same point in the business cycle a decade ago.

About one million people appear to have dropped out of the labor force since last summer, neither working nor looking for a job, according to government figures.
Lets see "unemployment is being reported at 6%" yet

"About one million people appear to have dropped out of the labor force since last summer, neither working nor looking for a job, according to government figures."

are not included as unemployed

No wonder income tax inflows are dwindling, state government deficits soaring and federal deficit projections are being revised by the minute - upward and upward into the trillions

Yesterday the US $ "rallied" "the Stock Market rallied" and gold got sold off - as Powell was speaking

The night before a "glitch" was blamed as after hours S&P futures rose over 100 points in just one hour before it was "corrected" - yet the trades were allowed to stand in that hour

"A country falls from within before it falls from without"

Got gold?

misetichGlobal: The Return of Rosy Scenario - S. Roach#969092/6/03; 05:48:14


On that basis alone, there's good reason to be suspicious about the 2003 GDP growth forecast of 2.9%. With the US economy ending 2002 on a very weak note (+0.7% in 4Q) and that weakness likely to persist at least into the current period of 2003 (latest MS estimate: +1.8%), the math makes it very hard to hit the annual growth bogey embedded in the budget. By my calculations, this weak starting point means that real GDP growth would have to average 4.6% over each of the final three quarters of 2003 just to hit the budget's annual growth target of 2.9%. Anything is possible, but with war-related economic disruptions more likely than not, the Administration's growth assumptions seem wildly optimistic to me.
This is a big deal in the art of multi-year budget accounting. Rules of thumb developed by the Congressional Budget Office indicate that Federal budgets are highly sensitive to alternative GDP growth paths. An annualized shortfall of just 0.1 percentage point in real GDP growth has been found to add $54 billion to five-year budget deficits and fully $247 billion to ten-year deficit projections. Applying that rule of thumb to a more realistic assessment of the US economic outlook underscores the perils of a runaway budget deficit. For example, consider the still-optimistic possibility that real GDP growth averages 3.2% over the final three quarters of 2003. That would produce an annual increase of 2.4%, fully 0.5 percentage point below the administration's just-unveiled economic assumptions. If that 0.5 percentage point growth shortfall is extrapolated into the future -- hardly an unrealistic assumption for a post-bubble US economy, in my view -- then the CBO's rule of thumb points to five-year deficit misses of $270 billion and ten-year shortfalls of $1.2 trillion. The problem with unrealistic economic assumptions is that their corrosive impact on the budget cumulates over time. That was one of the most painful lessons of the 1980s -- one that now seems to be totally forgotten in Washington. For that reason, alone, I believe there's a big risk that the Bush administration could be seriously understating likely budget deficits over the next several years.
The same sensitivity analysis can be performed with respect to the inflation and interest rate assumptions that are embedded in the just-unveiled White House budget. Inflation is expected to be rock steady at its current low rate for as far as the eye can see -- 1.6% for GDP prices through 2008 and 2.2% on a CPI basis over the same six-year time frame. Reflecting this extraordinary victory over both inflation and deflation, interest rates are also assumed to move up only slightly in 2003 from 40-year lows and then remain virtually stable over the next five years -- 4.0% for 90-day Treasury bills over 2004-08 and 5.4% for 10-year Treasuries. Deviations from these paths also affect the budget -- higher inflation raises revenues (lowering deficits), whereas higher interest rates increase outlays (raising deficits). For what it's worth, CBO estimates suggest that the inflation effects outweigh the interest rate effects by a factor of a little more than two-to-one -- in other words, a one-percentage-point overshoot of inflation lowers the five-year deficit by about $390 billion, whereas a one-point overshoot in interest rates is worth $150 billion on the deficit over the same period. Ah, the silver lining of inflation!
Supply-siders, of course, scream foul at everything you have just read. These are ridiculed as "static" estimates for a dynamic US economy that can only respond in the positive to the incentives of lower taxes. What is needed, they claim, is a "dynamic scoring" of incentive-driven policy changes in order to reveal the truly beneficial impacts of tax reforms. This, of course, is the same rhetorical flourish that was heard repeatedly in the 1980s as budget deficits lurched out of control -- peaking at 6.0% of GDP in 1983 and then averaging 5.2% over the next three years (1984-86). Supply-siders insist that it was runaway expenditures that did them in. Yet a CBO study argues strongly to the contrary, documenting how revenues fell some $164 billion short of the Administration's baseline estimates over this four-year period (see "Projecting Federal Tax Revenues and the Effect of Changes in Tax Law," Congressional Budget Office, December 1998).
Such revenue shortfalls in the aftermath of tax cuts are the smoking gun in this debate.
Actually, today's budget deficits could matter a good deal more than they did in the 1980s. That's because America is now contemplating another multi-year fiscal stimulus with its lowest national saving rate in recorded history. In the third quarter of 2002 (latest available data), the net national saving rate -- for consumers, businesses, and the government, combined -- fell to a record low of 1.6% of GDP. This is the domestically generated saving -- after allowing for the replacement of worn-out facilities -- that is available to fund expansion in the US capital stock, the sustenance of longer-term economic growth. Reflecting this shortfall, America must borrow saving from abroad -- and run a massive current account-deficit to attract it -- in order to keep the economy growing. By way of comparison, the net national saving rate stood at 9.0% in mid-1981 on the eve of the Reagan supply-side tax cuts, more than five times the rate prevailing today.


US $ whereto?

Got gold?

Belgian@ Topaz#969102/6/03; 05:49:59

Yes, the euro remains very silent during the dollar's agony and final funeral as the reserve- currency. One (the euro) should never sell the bear's skin before he's dead.

This Gold forum and CPM, is the only place, I know' that keeps on Avocating the virtues of Physical Gold in one's possession. The proprietors (m.K.) are giving evidence of a lot of courage for doing so against the main-stream, but in sympathy with, the paper-gold bugs. This forum remains unique in what it has to offer. None of these high quality on the Gold-subject is found in Euroland ! Yes, the euro has MANY...many reasons to remain absolutely QUIET !
Not in the least, because Euroland is builded upon the foundation of the euro and its concept.

You will NOT hear any dramatic, high profile, euro-manifests, pointing (revelating) to its real ambitions.
For a set of similar reasons, dollar-pessimism is not permitted and politically incorrect.
That is what I mean with deep-sea cross currents, silently taking place. America *IS* the dollar as Euroland wants to become associated with its (our-mine) euro. Logical isn't it ? America is the one who fights against Free Gold. Euroland contructed its euro in function of that Free Gold as to counter the dollar's force. You can't have both, AND the dollar AND free Gold, highly valued. The dollar made its Gold-choice, already 30 years ago. The euro made exactly the opposite one.

But these highly sensitive currency-matters can be discussed, freely, here...and only here, in function to Physical Gold evolvements. That's why more and more people will land here when they feel time is ripe for having, possessing, the Physical Gold. At the time more and more paper-adepts (any paper) become more doubtfull about its declining intrinsic worth and usefulness. The faster paper-losses rise in magnitude...the faster people will reflexe to the yellow tangible. Stocks, bonds, derivatives keep on heating up whilst returning, crashing, into the stratosphere from outer overvaluation space.

The globe's economical debacle is REAL ! Not much politico-economical maneuvering space is left. Monetary think thanks are completely silenced and don't dare to say a word or suggest a solution. All academics *hope* that the paper-circus can keep on performing, through good and bad days and that the dollar-reserve, continues to exist, function and is being used.

The US$...a Giant walking on clay feeth.

Socrates964Jim Sinclair#969112/6/03; 06:10:10

Interesting recent comments from Mr. Gold: not only did the Cartel bash the living daylights out of gold yesterday, they were also responsible for engineering the huge spike up to $390 in the first place. I tend to agree - after all, it was very nice to see gold up there, but completely out of character with recent price behaviour.

As I mentioned yesterday, I see the $380 level as a watershed between retracement and rally, so it's hardly surprising that they resort to this kind of stunt at
these levels.

Socrates964Topaz#969122/6/03; 06:16:46

Apart from the 3 and 5-years, I also expect issues of 2 3/4, 3 1/4, 3 1/2, 4 3/4, 5 1/4, 5 1/2 year bonds - the result being a Mickey-Mouse shaped yield curve.
Prometheusa nation of one - dream#969132/6/03; 06:22:24

RE your dream yesterday:
I had a dream like that once. It came after a late evening spent reading the book of Ezekiel. Cheers!


PrometheusPOG#969142/6/03; 06:32:25

Interesting article by Frank Shostak over at the site. He gives data on the relationship between the "excess" Austrian Money Supply (AMS), and the POG. According to his chart, which shows two together, with the AMS lagged seven months, they are well correlated. His analysis indicates that the recent rise in POG was due to the rapid growth in AMS earlier in the year. He states that, since the growth rate of the excess AMS has slowed very dramatically lately, even gone slightly negative, the momentum in the POG in the coming months should abate significantly. He does show, however, what we all know, that the economy is in pretty bad shape. Interesting read.


VanRipMargin Raised#969152/6/03; 07:01:58

Haven't seen this posted yet. My apologies if so. Some of the boys will have to dig a little deeper. Gold future contracts being upped to $2025 from $1350 for speculators and ... (see URL for rest)


NYMEX upping COMEX gold margins at close Thursday
Thursday February 6, 8:26 am ET.

TrojanNot A Good Move, Donald "Rumsfeld Warns Of U.S. Action#969162/6/03; 07:16:25

Rumsfeld warns of U.S. action against North Korea.


U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has warned North Korea that the United States can deal with Pyongyang militarily while it is focused on Iraq.

Trojan: I can see North Korea working furiously to get ready for a Missle test. The one thing you Don't want to do with North Korea is issue Threats. It would be nice if Mr War could leave his Ego at home.
I'm interested to see if the U.S. Media will go with this story. Rumsfeld says North Korea is dangerous and probably has 2 nuclear Bombs and all CNN and MSNBC can do is Gush about how Great Powell was at the UN. It's North Korea, Stupid.

Thanks for the kind words, Topaz.

sectorProsecutor seeks Trichet sentence#969172/6/03; 07:55:25


By Robert Graham in Paris
Published: February 5 2003 21:06 | Last Updated: February 5 2003 21:06

A French public prosecutor yesterday demanded a 10-month suspended sentence for Jean-Claude Trichet, governor of the Bank of France, for his alleged role in covering up the true losses of Crédit Lyonnais in the early 1990s.

The request came in the closing stages of the month-long trial of Mr Trichet and eight others on charges relating to the collapse of Crédit Lyonnais - then France's biggest commercial bank.

His chances of succeeding Wim Duisenberg as head of the European Central Bank hinge on the outcome. Mr Trichet, director-general of the treasury in the finance ministry at the time, has rejected any suggestion he was party to massaging Crédit Lyonnais' accounts. The prosecution also sought a 10-month suspended sentence for Jacques de Larosiére, the then governor of the Bank of France who went on to head the International Monetary Fund, and for the other main figures in the trial.

The trial began on January 6 after more than four years of investigations. Mr Trichet has been in court only briefly, and his defence has insisted that as a senior civil servant he had no direct responsibility for the drawing up of the accounts.

Last night Mr Trichet's lawyer appeared confident that his summing-up would be sufficient to counter the prosecutor's demand.

The prosecution case has been that during late 1991 and early 1992 the French banking authorities, the supervisory authorities and the administration were aware of the bank's rapidly deteriorating situation, caused by imprudent property loans and other ventures. It is alleged that the authorities - including Mr Trichet and Mr de Larosiére - then sought to make the Crédit Lyonnais accounts look more favourable, in a bid to ensure the credibility of the French banking system was undamaged and to make the bank conform to the Cook ratios governing international standards of bank solvency.

In his five-hour speech, prosecutor Jean-Pierre Bernard said: "We are not dealing with amateurs or beginners here.

"The common factor of the defendants is their professionalism. They can't say they weren't aware of accounting procedures. Representatives of the state receive practically identical administrative training. They speak the same language."
Dave Lewis of GATA has offered this story as yet another example of official corruption in central banking. But GATA is excoriated for suggesting central bank collusion in the gold market--go figure.

TrojanBush To Replace Head Of Fannie, Freddie Watchdog#969182/6/03; 08:11:48

Trojan: Is that thunder that I hear in the background or is it the rumblings of a Derivative Bomb explosion
Has anyone read the Doug Nowland Interview with Jim Puplova as yet ?

It addresses this issue in depth. I'll try to find the link. It is being described as one of the most important financial articles of the year.

TrojanStructured Finance and The Debt Explosion and Other Stuff#969202/6/03; 08:19:03

Trojan: The Link is above. A very interesting article.

I like my Title better :-)

Jim does a Great Interview with Noland.

a nation of onethoughts on recent issues#969212/6/03; 08:54:14

The Guardian printed, "North Korea is entitled to launch a pre-emptive strike against the US rather than wait until the American military have finished with Iraq, the North's foreign ministry told the Guardian yesterday."

--This is one problem with preemptive strikes, and of course there are others. On a planet like ours, where resources are limited, and where the number of places where people can stand are also limited, the question of who has a right to stand where is not merely a matter of importance to some individuals, but it is a matter of life and death for all of us. Ultimately, this question justifies a preemptive strike being exercized by anyone against anyone else. So it is not an issue of who has the right to strike first, because, implicit in our being here on earth is the fact that everyone has that right. It is instead a question of how to avoid this type of conflict, since, after all, it has the potential of reducing us and all our efforts to dust. Purchasers of physical gold tend to appreciate this more than many others, and this is one reason gold is where it is today, and it is why POG will probaby go much higher.

Another issue is this. Big entities control markets, or supposedly they do. Well, if JPM and the FED and OTHERS know how to buy and sell gold in ways that reliably produce the effects they want, making profits and trimming losses as routinely as pouring coffee into a cup, without the adverse effects which ordinary individuals are subject to when they try to do this, why is it that the flunkies who are given these tasks -and remember, even at JPM the thinking has to be done by individual people- why is it that these individuals, once having learned the inside ways of reliably making great gobs of beautiful green money by trading gold, and having learned when to get in and when to get out, why don't they then leave those places, to buy and sell privately for their own accounts, thus becoming rich as Croesus? I have not heard of this actually happening. And partly because of this I find I must greet with some degree skepticism any story about the giants being able to so effectively control such markets.

Being always susceptible to logic, I remain, with all intents and purposes, persuadable otherwise, if anyone cares to effectively topple this view.

Further, if these phantom controllers of markets are able to manipulate POG and other prices just by issuing paper, why would they bother to set up appearances to be swallowed by a gullible public? It is too obvious to the rest of us. Wouldn't that endanger their gambit? Or do they simply not care about this?

Maverick1Van Rip#969222/6/03; 09:23:08

Is that margin increase a squeeze on the longs?
Gandalf the WhiteGREAT find Sir VanRip !!! YES, Sir Maverick, THIS is a SIGNAL !!#969232/6/03; 09:44:04

VanRip (2/6/03; 07:01:58MT - msg#: 96915)
Margin Raised

NYMEX upping COMEX gold margins at close Thursday
Thursday February 6, 8:26 am ET

NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The New York Mercantile Exchange will raise the amount of collateral required to trade gold futures contracts at its COMEX Division as of the close of business Thursday.
Margins on COMEX gold futures will be increased to $1,500 from $1,000 for members, member firms, and hedgers; and to $2,025 from $1,350 for speculative customers, the exchange said in a release issued late Wednesday.
THIS is the START of the COMEX "game" !!
NOW even PAPER "gold" becomes more "expensive" !!!!

Socrates964Nation of One#969242/6/03; 09:52:53

One can evidently have interminable discussions about conspiracy, manipulation, etc., but the basic conclusion I come to is this:

Manipulation does occur, but its nature is misunderstood. Simple example, the price of gold may have an equilibrium price of $500. Many people will say that it has been manipulated down to $250-300, to allow gold leasing to take place as a kind of free financing for bullion banks, and that if gold goes back to $500, this will represent the triumph of the free market over manipulation.

I take a slightly different view. The manipulators know full well that the equilibrium price is $500, but they also know that they have a great deal of power and influence - they thus run a pyramid scheme in which they use derivatives to push the gold price down, while spreading a campaign of disinformation to the effect that gold is going out of fashion.

At all times, however, they are aware that anyone who actually takes the other side of their short positions will reveal their plan -the smart manipulator doesn't really mind, however, since his game is simply to be long a pyramid scheme at the bottom, and short of it at the top. That way, you profit twice from using your power to move a price away from equilibrium. Once the price returns, the game is over and it's time for the next pyramid scheme in another country/market/etc.

Evidently, the manipulator always accumulates an entourage of camp followers who may actually believe the fantasy and fail to realise that the essence of the manipulation lies not in HOLDING a price away from equilibrium but in PUSHING it away from equilibrium and ALLOWING IT TO SNAP BACK due to the workings of market forces of supply and demand. The clever manipulator brings them along for the ride and then abandons them to their own fate.

The manipulators have to have a certain amount of influence, but their real power lies in the public's insatiable appetite for get rich quick schemes.

Hence the Nasdaq - the investment bankers who engineered the rally to 5,000 always knew that fair value was probably well below 1,000, but how much money would they have made if it had stayed down there. It has been to the moon and has now crashed to earth having been mercilessly shorted on the way down. It will not rise again anytime soon, because its perpetrators know that there is nothing to be gained by pumping it up again since they will only succeed in creating a collective delusion regarding tech stocks when a new technological concept comes along. It has thus been abandoned.

If you have any doubts about the above, just consider the long list of sector specific bubbles that have been and gone over the last 100 years. If anything, they have been getting more and more audacious, which is a very bad omen for the rest of us.

Gold is similar - in that it was leased down and will now be bought up. Seen from the above perspective, the gold bull market is actually the unwinding of the bullion banks' pyramid scheme - and GATA is probably wrong to see the rising gold price as the defeat of the cartel - it would be more accurate to say that it is the defeat of the more stupid elements of the cartel, since the smart ones know that every pyramid scheme must eventually unwind and that the rally in gold is just as profitable as the leasing.

This is not to disparage GATA's efforts - since they are performing the immensely valuable service of alerting the general public as to what is going on, so that it at least stands a chance of catching the deflation of the gold leasing bubble.

a nation of onemanipulation#969252/6/03; 10:07:39

Such discussions need not be interminable. Once truth is arrived at, disagreement ceases.
TruthcasterAre we scared yet?#969262/6/03; 10:08:13

Well here we go again gold and silver are tanking.
I was hoping for a nice pop in PM's today
looks like that's not going to happen
gold still is not looking to bad but silver
was gone down the tube. It's crazy to see silver
in the 4.60's again it will take for ever to
again that ground back again. Oh well good thing
I'm only 27 all have is time to wait and see.

a nation of oneReply to Socrates964 (2/6/03; 09:52:53MT - msg#: 96924)#969272/6/03; 10:17:05

To manipulate a market is essentially a hostile action. This comes from the attitude that business is war. And so it is. But the sense in which making money is not war is a larger sense and is to be preferred. To be capable of observing, recognizing, and benefitting from whatever situation may exist is a higher skill and needs not be hostile. This endows it with an advantage. Others have less interest in defeating it. Thus it attracts less violence. By buying and holding, purchasers of gold may effectively avoid -to a greater extent than many others- the manipulations you speak of, and manipulations in other markets as well.
Magister Aureliustruthcaster#969282/6/03; 10:18:40

Truthcaster, the fact that gold won't retreat below $370 for long is good. Like you I'm disappointed in silver's fall, but remember that there is no logical reason for silver to remain so. In fact, the supply issue alone will guarantee a rise in silver prices, especially as silver finds more uses in the medical and food preparation fields. The fact that silver keeps getting hammered tells me that there are some undercurrents that desperately need silver to stay low.
a nation of oneReply to Socrates964 (2/6/03; 09:52:53MT - msg#: 96924)#969292/6/03; 10:30:03

Your statement: "Hence the Nasdaq - the investment bankers who engineered the rally to 5,000 always knew that fair value was probably well below 1,000, but how much money would they have made if it had stayed down there. It has been to the moon and has now crashed to earth having been mercilessly shorted on the way down. It will not rise again anytime soon, because its perpetrators know that there is nothing to be gained by pumping it up again since they will only succeed in creating a collective delusion regarding tech stocks when a new technological concept comes along. It has thus been abandoned."

--Yes. I know this. Even people of above average intelligence do sometimes think that by controlling the world they may benefit themselves, and it can be true. It is also probably true that those most likely to dominate the world will be those who try to do so. For men like me, however, who don't particularly want to own and control our entire planet, but who are happy merely to be able to live quite well within a satisfactory part of one, happiness may consist less of knowing how to get what you want, than in knowing what to want. In our modern circumstance, where domination of the planet would require the deaths of many millions, I percieve that my real interests lie in knowing that energies spent on controlling others can be used for better things.

Because of this I will be happier to partake of the joys of a thrilling ride to the mountaintop, by means of physical gold, than I would be if all that mattered in my mind were to force it go there.

Socrates964No1#9693002/06/03; 10:52:57

I have no desire to control the world either. I just have a rather cynical view of human nature, particularly when it gets into power.
The HoopleJPM derivatives director new Fannie overseer#9693102/06/03; 11:08:09

WSJ snippit:

"The White House said Tuesday it has chosen Mr. (Mark) Brickell, a former managing director in the derivatives group at J.P. Morgan & Co., to take the helm of the Office of Federal Housing Oversight, a once obsure agency set up a decade ago to oversee Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae."

comment: Fannie derivatives up from 72 billion in 1993 to 1.7 trillion today. Guess we all know the counterparty pretty much now. Brickell was also former head of the "International Swaps and Derivatives Association" whatever that is. He also ardently fought otc regulation. Hmmm, swaps, trillions of JPM, Fannie, and gold derivatives all under one roof... could the roof be collapsing? This guy might actually make Harvey Pitt seem unbiased. Maybe one of his early duties was to call up the COMEX buddies and jack gold margins? If gold falls it's win-win for Fannie and JPM.

Mr GreshamSocrates964, Invisible Hand#9693202/06/03; 11:29:35

Such a good summary of much of what we've talked about here over the years! Helping us get in synch with the thinking of those who make a business of riding volatile markets. Thank you.

"Evidently, the manipulator always accumulates an entourage of camp followers who may actually believe the fantasy and fail to realise that the essence of the manipulation lies not in HOLDING a price away from equilibrium but in PUSHING it away from equilibrium and ALLOWING IT TO SNAP BACK due to the workings of market forces of supply and demand. The clever manipulator brings them along for the ride and then abandons them to their own fate."

So many other good things today, but I've had to disconnect and reconnect several times, I'm losing track.

Invisible Hand: Those Indymedia posts are the closest thing we've had to an FOA parallel analysis, and from a more politically-pointed viewpoint, too. There was a paragraph in the middle that highlighted a lot of it for me -- I'll try to bring it in later. But I think I remember it being about the flows of funds (dollar/Euro) vs the accumulation of same as Reserves. Not sure if I'm confusing two of my curiosities, but I think either direction would be something I'd welcome your comment on. Back later...

Daniel DruffTopaz#9693302/06/03; 11:52:10


Topaz (2/6/03; 01:10:39MT - msg#: 96897)
Noticed you credited mois for a posting on Silver yesterday...not mine sire, maybe that other "T" poster who,I might add, is providing a wealth of varied information for our collective absorption and dissemination.
I speak of the good Sir Trojan.

Cheers...You and He/She !

Topaz, you are a gentleman, indeed. Thank you for the correction.


Your direction to financialsense was very helpful, thanks again.

HOWEVER, I'm having a problem getting to the bottom of the frivolous use of silver in the production of throwaway cameras. While considering a slight imposition upon Gandalf the White, I decided that ANOTHER contest, directed by the master himself, would undoubtedly throw the ol' boy into a catatonic state if not the liquor cabinet. What an incredible job he did in the contest, "WE MUST HAVE RULES!" It was really fun. But how to determine just how much silver is being destroyed by this disgusting throwaway camera sector within an otherwise great industry?

THEREFORE, I must take responsibility for my particular problem. To solve this problem a CONTEST is now proposed to determine the amount of silver being used in the manufacturing process of throwaway cameras throughout the world. Unlike Gandalf the White's contest, we will make up the rules as we go along.

THE PRIZE: The winner or winners will each receive a throwaway camera or in their stead they may graciously choose to have the trash send to a worthy enemy.

THE QUESTION: How much silver is being wasted annually in the use of throwaway cameras?

Thank you

VanRipMaverick 1#9693402/06/03; 12:14:16

I know a 50% increase in margin requirements would affect my trading, so I suppose the increase will take some wind out of the sails of a bunch of the longs. And in doing so blunt the charge to higher prices. If it doesn't, then I wouldn't be surprised to see another 50% hike down the road. Just a guess.

Haven't heard much reaction to it so far, but I'll bet Bill Murphy will have some choice words to say about it later.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Why gold? Why now? (And how you can get it with a phone call...)#9693502/06/03; 12:15:21

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Skillful Investors

Just as the primary trend in gold is up as shown by our nearby
graph, the primary trend in stocks is down. If you diversify your
portfolio with gold, you not only gain by being in gold, you gain what
you would have lost in the stock market. Richard Russell, the
well-regarded long-time investment analyst who has correctly and
consistently forecasted the direction of both markets, says the stock
market and gold will cross in the 2000 to 3000 area
. Think about that
for a moment. What will that mean to your portfolio if not properly
diversified with gold? What will it mean if it is?

Gold for you is an easy phone call away.

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Why should YOU buy gold? Because no one else will do it FOR you. We can help.#9693602/06/03; 12:34:35

gold sovereigns
Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance and credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial asset which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.

slingshotTruthcaster Msg#96926#9693702/06/03; 12:50:39

Are we scared yet?

No. Are we having FUN yet? You bet. Even better if your are on the plus side from the ride down to $254. Better here than the stock market. Silver may have different fundamentals. IMO silver will come alive when fear sets in. Those who have missed the gold train will run to the silver platform to board the silver bullet. Only there will not be as many cars as the golden nugget train. Then it is only a matter of supply and demand. We all wanted some action and $50 to $100 swings would be all right with me. I wait for the lemmings to pick the pace up and the talk of gold to satuate my workplace.

A $20.00 spike to $390.00. I wonder what the shorts were thinking? :0)


TruthcasterNo worries#9693802/06/03; 13:02:11

Re slingshot

You bet it is much better here in the PM's
than in the Dow stocks. Even if the gold and
silver I have goes to zero I can still look
at it and hold it. It's kind of hard to do that
with stocks shoot they don't even send out a
nice looking stock certificates anymore to look
at. Ha So no worries here either. ;o)

Black BladeWeekly Natural Gas Storage Report#9693902/06/03; 13:05:08

Storage Highlights:

Working gas in storage was 1,521 Bcf as of Friday, January 31, 2003, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 208 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 811 Bcf less than last year at this time and 287 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,808 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 258 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 141 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 79 Bcf below the 5-year average of 510 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 56 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 50 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 11 Bcf. At 1,521 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.

Black Blade: Looks like we are on track to end the heating season well below 1 tcf. My updated calculations suggest that we could easily end up below 700 bcf before we start injection season (and 789 bcf in a best case scenario). And that is with normal temperatures and moderate fuel switching where possible. I still have to bring in the new data for another update to my calculations but it is obviously not good news for the US economy. Then add in rising production decline rates and lack of reserve replacement on as drilling interest wanes. It appears that we are facing another severe energy crisis that will cream the economy yet again. Forget about any "economic recovery" this year and next. Unemployment and corporate earnings are going to take a big hit due to rising costs and a lack of pricing power on already razor thin margins. God forbid we have a warmer than normal summer. It's gonna get ugly!

Black BladeCOMEX and TOCOM Rule Changes#9694002/06/03; 13:21:05

Now where have we seen this before? Oh.... I don't know..... Palladium maybe? Remember when Russia depleted their stockpiles of palladium and platinum as they attempted to extricate themselves from the 1998 Bond Default (yeah the one that brought down LTCM) by raising cash. The TOCOM changed the rules regarding sales of futures contracts and the COMEX raised margins then too. When they don't have the ability to deliver on short notice rather than say so and spark off a run on the price of the metal, they simply change the rules to drive out the little guy who can upset the applecart so to speak. This isn't all that unprecedented. It also happened with the silver futures market when the Hunt brothers were left holding the (silver) bag. There are different ways to "manage" the market. You just have to realize that if these managers were not robbing at the point of a pen they would probably be robbing at the point of a gun. They are a lot like politicians ;-). They have found a home in the futures market. The easiest way for the little guy to circumvent these criminals is to just buy the physical metal en masse and thereby put immense pressure on the real PM market.

- Black Blade

sector@socrates "That way, you profit twice from using your power to move a price away from equilibrium. Once the price returns, the game is over and it's time for the next pyramid scheme in another country/market/etc."#9694102/06/03; 13:22:28

There are costs too ... in the manipulation game

Metallic costs, lots of metal.

To be sure derivatives... born with metal loans, swaps and forwards have been the big downward force in gold since June 1996. The COMEX was the preemptive selling vehicle. COMEX closes 300% lower than the PM FIX was the target.

Are they profiting on the way up? Perhaps a little, but they are bleeding gold all the way since the only real down force in today's market come from official selling. JPM and their friends over at CITI owns $48 Billion worth of the COMEX gold market according to the OCC, so they essentially ARE the COMEX.

Getting from the bottom to the place where non-central bank gold reenters the markets is still painful for the cartel. One can guess that an agreement exists at the G-10 to ramp gold along a discreet path agreed to by all with the dollar falling in a controlled devaluation and gold rising to the all-important equilibrium level of "No more central bank selling required".

What is that level? We'll know it when we see it.

BTW the Dec 4th linear path of the PM Fix is still intact, even with the numerous verticalities.

Black BladeNatGas Storage Levels In Free Fall#9694202/06/03; 13:34:16

A glance at the chart dramatically shows the accelerating decline of NG storage with 9 weeks of heating season left. Note the trend and compare to the 2000-2001 season when the recession took hold. Even the "double dippers" should take notice. A bit of PM portfolio insurance is in order.

- Black Blade

Black BladeRumor - Bush and Powell to Address Nation Tonight#9694302/06/03; 13:48:03

I don't have any details, but a rumor is just out that President Bush and Sec. Colin Powell will address the nation from the White House tonight (4:30 EST) on Iraq. No other details and not even sure if this true. I can't find any official release or news source so take it at face value.

- Black Blade

Black BladeRumor Confirmed#9694402/06/03; 14:04:02

Bush and Powell will address the nation from the Roosevelt Room in the White House. The Roosevelt Room is where "weighty" announcements are made from. It appears that ultimatum time is here. Bush will likely say that its time to "put up or shut up" for Iraq. This means that war could be immenent. The address will commence in 30 minutes.

- Black Blade

fobjobBB-Natural gas shortage and the economy...#9694502/06/03; 14:06:46

All the more reason to get that 'new' oil out of the ground in Iraq, pronto! I took advantage of the dip yesterday and got three more (half)bags of junk silver. The lumpier the mattress, the better the sleeping! Now, if I could just figure out a way to bring my supercub in from Tooele, so I could give it a hug twice a day.........hmmmmmm. Life is good. Cheers!
p.s. I get the feeling that if Bushy succeeds with oiling up the economy, that this could put quite the whammy on POG for a while....??

GoldnSilver2002I love it now i know they are scared of gold!!!#9694602/06/03; 14:12:00

In canada on business report ctv they just rolled out a so called "strategist" who advised about buying gold saying "it's near the top" and also "it goes up very fast and comes down very fast as we have just seen." rofl lollll.I needed this,both comedy and confirmation all in one.On feb 8th the chinese will be back buying in earnest,japan and the muslim nations buying will increase.Japan facing april fools day when all deposits become uninsured in a bankrupt banking system.The world breathed a sigh of relief as powell gave his speech,they will be back buying as the bombs fly.Bush will attack anyway,they were telling the u.n,not asking.Wall st and the media roll out the same tired old routine,gold is bad,get back in the dow everything is fine again.I have never seen them as scared as we have since gold hit 390 overseas.Something it is bound to do.The media cannot misinform europe,asia and the rest'so they concentrate on our people more.They want us to sell,we wont.Knocking gold down to 370 isnt much of an acheivement as we have seen she can fly up 20 dollars overnight when the asians cheaply buy the physcial.Obviously,400 scares the hell out of them.Now lets see what happens at the end of feb when all these big boys demand physical on their futures(comex).Thank you mr cabal,i was truly worried the days of accumulating cheap physical we almost over.Hows the DOWn jones!!!!Gold will go up row no matter what these suckers say!
timbervisionGoldnSilver2002#9694702/06/03; 14:24:34

I might add that they also used "the old friendly, smiling, trustworthy face of a woman trick" when striking down gold. To "quote" Get Smart.
J-BullionBush/Powell speech?????#9694802/06/03; 14:32:50

I've heard nothing about this. Where is this announcement?
Socrates964SECTOR#9694902/06/03; 14:34:33

Yes, there are costs - but it looks to me that a number of key bullion banks that supposedly have to return gold to the central banks will be allowed to settle in cash (or government bonds). This changes their balance sheets completely, since gold-linked debt becomes ordinary debt. Once you have sorted out the liabilities side of the balance sheet, you can buy lots of gold.

Given that their creditors are also voracious borrowers, all it takes is for them to purchase a few extra issues of treasuries and who will be any the wiser? Who will be able to peer inside the gold leases and say, hey gold is at $900 - JPM owes the American taxpayer $550 per oz. I therefore tend to believe JPM when it claims that it doesn't have any gold derivative problems. If you have powerful friends, I suspect that you don't have these kinds of problems.

I'm not claiming, however, that such banks are completely insulated from the credit mountain weighing on the US$, just that a gold derivative problem can be shunted elsewhere.

makcumka@ J-Bullion#9695002/06/03; 14:36:52

That is the only place I could find any mention of the upcoming address. It is listed as "upcoming" at 2130 GMT, which translates as 4:30 p.m. EST, as BB said.


Black Bladefobjob#9695102/06/03; 14:42:18

Tooele eh? My little brother is an officer in the Reserves/Guard and is now guarding our chemical/biological WMD at the Army Depot there. I used to worked for Anaconda at the Carr Fork Project (copper mine) and lived in Tooele for a couple of years until Anaconda was bought out by ARCO. Nice area.

- Black Blade

CoBra(too)GWB - Reiterating his Resolve to Disarm Saddam#9695202/06/03; 14:57:34

In his brief speech just now. Towards the end he used the phrase "The Game's Over", meaning of course Iraq, but in the whole concept he could have also addressed the U.N. Security Council.

One step closer to WAR and not much patience left within the Washington hawks.

We may soon see what POG's war premium is all about ...cb2

fobjobBB-Tooele area#9695302/06/03; 15:00:35

You will have noticed, then, the amazing growth in the area! The city airport is partially plowed under;(still some holdouts, though!) I built my hanger at TVY in Erda about 14 years ago. The area is paradise for cub flying(100ft and below), and beats hell out of New Jersey/Philadelphia/Drexel where I escaped from in 1968. A much more self-sufficient area to weather out the coming storm......
Magister AureliusSpeaking of weathering storms#9695402/06/03; 15:10:20

Black Blade, fobjob, and anyone else who might have some ideas. I'm only 27, making under $30K deflating dollars a year, and since I work and have to rent in the general Seattle area I lack the capital to plow a large amount into gold or even property to weather the coming storm. With the meager amount I have been able to save, I have accumulated a little over 2 oz worth of gold in various coins. I'm still trying to get more, but I notice that many on here have a bugout or hunker down strategy for when the dung hits the fan. How much gold do you suggest for a lower on the economic ladder peon to accumulate and also, how would such a person handle not owning a home or property to live off of? Especially since debt is bad, the mortgage market is near collapse, and especially in WA state, housing values are grossly overpriced. So gold will really be a hot commodity out here. Any hints or suggestions are appreciated. Thanks!
Paper AvalancheBush's new affinity for fuel cells#9695502/06/03; 15:14:51,2933,77814,00.html


"Thursday, February 06, 2003
By Liza Porteus

WASHINGTON -- President Bush urged Congress on Thursday to help move hydrogen fuel cell cars from the laboratory to the showroom as soon as possible to boost American's economic and national security."


I have two thoughts when reading this story:

1. Bush recognizes Hubbert's Peak.
2. If memory serves me, fuel cells use alot of silver.


fobjobMagister what?#9695602/06/03; 15:19:41

This is better answered by better than me, but my personal guideline is 10-20 per cent of whatever I want to be worth (in today's dollars)after TSHTF. Then, there is that first Depression story about the bell hop who got one gold coin as a tip. He kept it, and later on, was able to buy the hotel with that one coin!
Magister Aureliusfobjob#9695702/06/03; 15:22:45

Aurelius was used for to describe an Emperor - Marcus Aurelius - Marcus the Golden.. so, I just used it for a handle that means "Golden Master"
Black BladeMagister Aurelius #9695802/06/03; 15:29:45

I would say it depends on your financial situation. I started out buying a little here and there accumulating over time. I eventually ended up with a nice pile of Gold, Silver, and some Platinum. All I did was set aside a few dollars from each paycheck and bought every couple of weeks. Later on I started buying PMs when I was working for the PM miners. The mines typically give out Gold and Silver medallions as attendence/safety awards. I bought quite a bit that way too. That's not an option for most of course. Our host has a "small order desk" where you can accumulate a little every so often though. The question now is how much time before the economic meltdown. That question I can't answer with certainty, but the economy is in bad shape and looks to get much worse. I can't speak for everyone else here, but I started out small and I suspect most others did too. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Off to the gym!

KagalaskaPaper Avalanche Msg #96955#9695902/06/03; 15:31:43

Fuel cells use platinum in the electrode membrane portion of the unit. I wished they used silver, it would'nt be kicked around the way it is. When GWB talked about fuel cell tech in his State of the Union address platinum spiked $25 the next day.
Paper Avalanche@ Kagalaska#9696002/06/03; 15:49:00

Thanks for the clarification. I am not well studied in the engineering fields as I am a salesman by trade.


GaleriderVARIOUS#9696102/06/03; 16:12:11


Hi. Read both your recent posts and like your philosophy. UNLIKE the stockmarket and the horse/dog track races, with the PM's (up or down) you can always walk away with something. On a seperate note, I had a dream...Gabby Cohen,
Krusty Kramer and a few other nameless lemming masters were standing in front of the Dean in that scene from "Animal House" getting lectured...."Fat, Drunk, and stupid is no way to go through life....Gabby was the one with the pencils stuck up her nose!

Paper AvalancheThe bigger the lie, the more people who believe it...#9696202/06/03; 16:13:59

No snips. None needed. Just the same stuff telling us that despite the fact that education, healthcare, energy, food, insurance, taxes, dry goods, services, and you name it that there is no inflation!!!! You hear me? No inflation dammit!!!!!!

Hitler would be proud.


Paper AvalancheCorrection: "you name it is going UP"#9696302/06/03; 16:15:55


Hope I didn't break any posting rules with the expaltive.


Paper AvalancheCorrection to my correction: explative#9696402/06/03; 16:21:07

: )
Paper AvalancheIt's go time in a week.......#9696502/06/03; 16:29:43

maybe we can have a contest to see who can get closest to the hour that the birds fly.


Magister Aureliusadvice#9696602/06/03; 16:33:53

Thanks to Black Blade and fobjob for the advice! Hopefully the crash will hold off until I am a little better situated for it. :) Later everyone!
GaleriderMagister Aurelius/BB#9696702/06/03; 16:34:28

Same for me. Was and still am in the military. Used to send home a portion of my pay to the Old Man. Last year he passed away. I was fortunate enough to get leave to see him for about a week before he passed away. During one of our conversations, Old Dude leans over and whispers in my ear, "make sure you go down to the cellar and look in the bottom of my large tool chest. There's a wooden box for you." I was like, "Thanks Dad". I really thought it was only a box. Something he had made as it was one of his hobbies, wood working. I went down there and almost ripped my back out when I first attempted to lift it. Inside? 10 Gold Maple Leafs, 6 oz of Platinum, almost 1000 oz of silver coins. Pop had hid this amongst his extensive inventory of tools because he feared would be robbers might use metal detectors. And here all this time I thought he had used the money to have a good time with Mom. Since then I have added a little at a time, 1/10, 1/2, .2354, whatever...the little you're able to accumulate, soon turns into 1oz, 5oz, and it adds up. Don't worry about the ups and downs of the market price. Buy what you can afford.
segel_fliegerHigher margins for COMEX Gold#9696802/06/03; 17:10:31

I wouldn't read too much into today's announcement of higher margins for Comex Gold. Virtually all of the exchanges use SPAN (short for Standard Portfolio ANalysis of risk) to compute margins. SPAN takes into consideration the absolute price levels, and the volatility in price. Since both of these have gone up in recent days, the news certainly comes as no surprise.

While higher margins do put the squeeze on players who are over-leveraged relative to thier capitalization, the higher volatility we have seen recently has probably already "done them in" :^) So the net effect on future price action at this juncture is probably pretty negligible.

mikalGold and silver movements#9696902/06/03; 17:34:34

Recent movements in Au and Ag couldn't have come at a worse time for this buy and holder, being short of time to follow the spectrum of comments on the web that I have grown accustomed. But this forum and a couple others have been enough to keep me abreast of the implications, which seem rather unusually bullish.
Even counting out the recent war talk, speeches and threats. We have gold and silver resting above support levels- silver above long-term $4.65 and gold above the short-to-mid-term $352 area. And the raised margin requirements on Comex for gold futures as Van Rip posted at 50%! Plus significant, "healthy" retracements of both metals: clears out weak-handed longs and permits funds and shorts to cover and close hedges. It signals further instability in derivatives and balance sheets and probably the entire financial system. Also, these prices will induce foreigners, new investors, industrial users and funds to enter and diversify into positions at a favorable price, made more attractive by Korean, Iraqi, and terrorist concerns.
There is a saying: "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me."- meaning: "Live and learn." So, yes, many more of the world's investors are a lot smarter than the mainstream media gives them credit for. And the rapidly growing flurry of simplified and laughably absurd and macabre financial and foreign affairs commentary and reporting can mean only one thing- that the financial and political status quo is not long for this world.

Paper AvalancheSpot at $366 and change at the moment#9697002/06/03; 17:34:37

Assume for a moment that the paper gold market is failing down as I type this. What would the FED do? I would expect that they would likely buy contracts if the disparity between buy and sell orders became too severe to the downside (so much so as to imply that the world is abandoning the paper/dollar/gold market due to a lack of credibility). This is controlable. Temporarily. Should the world sell their paper/gold contracts in the face of the infinite capacity of the FED to feed paper dollars in exchnage for said contracts then I cannot help but think that such a dollar flow to those who would wish to get out of the paper/gold/dollar market will, in and of itself, create an additional inflationary pressure internationally.

Theoretical example: OK, assume that I am a trader in China and I have lost faith in the paper/dollar/gold market because it cannot deliver the physical gold metal. Luckily, I found a buyer (sucker) who is not aware of the inability of the paper/gold/dollar market to deliver the physical gold that I desire. I bought in at $370 and got out at $360. Not too bad since I can take the dollar proceeds to the physical market and get what I want (while my counterparty gets the shaft). So it goes. But wait! I find out from speaking to other traders that they too think that they have found a sucker to buy their contracts! I then realize that I am the sucker by not recognizing that it is the FED that bought my contract at $360 (with dollars that cost absolutely nothing to produce) and as a result is accelerating the downward spiral that is the dollar value implosion (read hyperinflation). At this point I will immediately exchange my worthless pieces of paper for as much gold as the next guy is willing to part with.

How far away from this example / scenario are we?

Remember that an illusion that involves a mirror only works as long as there is not another mirror (physical gold market in China?????).

Food for thought.


GoldnSilver2002Just ran out and bought more cheap silver...#9697102/06/03; 18:07:31

Based on everything we are seeing,things are probably as bad as they hoped they wouldnt be.Despite Bushs'statements gold acts like Bush just said no war.People are cashing in (mutual funds etc) like mad,the system is bleeding and they believe they can manipulate and lie their way out of this one.Totally laughable,their fear is palpable now.Thank you ctv for making me aware the media is in on it ;)As i picked up my cheap silver i said how many 10 oz bars and how many 50 oz bars do you have?She said (3)- 10oz bars and (2)- 50 oz bars left.How sad, because of our lying media they lose a fortune on nasdog bombs and down jones hot air and then get steered away from the only thing that can save them.I realize now by the time people wake up and rush to the bullion dealers to buy, the sign will say "sold out".Lower prices does not mean more gold and silver dough heads,it means less.This is called the "hangmans noose".Lower prices means no new mining,and the people expecting much higher prices refuse to let go.2 days ago the cabal began to freak out,knowing they will run out of physical soon anyway they tried desperately to scare people out of and from gold and silver.The problem is the only ones who watch these jack ass shows are the goldbugs,i love comedy.
GoldendomeGalerider #96967#9697202/06/03; 18:17:55

Wonderful story and personal history. Yes, and to all that have posted of slow, small, accumulations....they do add up over time. Galerider, it must give you a wonderful feeling to think of how your father thought of you and your future as he accumulated, probably too, over the years. Thanks for sharing the memory.
ElGordoNew world-wide terror alert#9697302/06/03; 18:38:41

WASHINGTON, Feb. 6 -- The State Department warned Americans abroad Thursday of the threat of new terrorist attacks using chemical or biological weapons. The worldwide alert came as U.S. security officials told NBC News that they were considering raising their assessment of the threat of terrorist attacks to orange, its second-highest level, citing intelligence indications of plans for a "major attack" as early as next week.
ElGordo@GoldnSilver2002 #9697402/06/03; 18:41:45

I stopped by a dealer in Vancouver today and they were out
of all silver bars. 10 oz, 50 oz, 100 oz and 1 Kilo bars all
gone. Big orders were coming in on the phone. Amazing

The Invisible HandVive la France! -- on paper nationalism#9697502/06/03; 18:42:57

Mr Gresham,

You asked me to comment on how to URLd article is an FOA parallel analysis highlighting the flows of funds (dollar/Euro) vs the accumulation of same as Reserves.

First of all, let me be clear. Although I was born in Europe and hold the citizenship of a euroland country, I don't support the euro as a matter of principle. As a matter of principle I am opposed to anything coming from the European union (formerly the European Communities). I used to be an opponent of the euro until January 1999 when I "met" MK, A and FOA. On December 31, 1999 I still handed a pamphlet under the title "Stop Euro" to Wim D. on the sidewalk in front of the Belgian Central Bank. I was therefore very surprised to receive on this Forum earlier today a US of A nationalistic response to my post by a poster on this board. Why invoke governmental hegemony to have monetary supremacy with some ink on paper?

As to the Airbus-AirIndia deal:

The reason why AirBus has been preferred over Boeing is because of the US policy over Pakistan and because Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. in Bangalore is already repairing doors of Airbus aircraft (Die indische Regierung entschied sich für Flugzeuge des Typs Airbus, was durchaus in dem Zusammenhang mit der amerikanischen Pakistanpolitik stehen könnte. Die Präferenz für Airbus ist aber auch dadurch zu erklären, dass das in Bangalore ansässige Unternehmen Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. Türen für Airbus-Flugzeuge herstellt und sich das Unternehmen weitere Kooperation mit dem europäischen Unternehmen erhofft.

As Pradeep put it on Dec 10, 2002 11:50 AM under Re: The Weird $2b PIA Deal Which has Raised a Billion Questions on the board at
You are wrong when you say that Boeing 777 is better than A340. A340 is the world's best aircraft in it's class. That's why India is going to acquire 43 Airbus aircrafts than the Boeing aircrafts. May be Pakistan also has to think about it and there should be an independent inquiry to know whether any kick backs were involved in this deal. Even if the kick back is 5% it is 100 million dollars which is 600 crore rs. With which you can revamp an entire city's water delivery system.

As the website of the Indian embassy in Paris puts it
Airbus wins $2bn Indian Airlines contract
Indian Airlines awarded a $2bn contract for 43 aircraft
to Airbus, theEuropean aerospace manufacturer. Airbus
beat US rival Boeing to win India's biggest order for commercial aircraft. After two years of negotiation,
India's national domestic airline agreed to replace its ageing fleet with Airbus A-319, A-320 and A-321 aircraft
in a bid to become more competitive against new domestic
carriers with younger fleets. Indian Airlines' management board approved the deal but it must still go before the
government's Public Investment Board and Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs.
Airbus Industrie has offered to buy back Indian Airlines' ageing fleet of 18Airbus A 300s and Boeing 737-200s. It
will actually pay Indian Airlines the value of the aircraft, but the aircraft will be disposed of by the nationalcarrier. The deal is part of the pricing strategy followed by Airbus to win IA contract. It has also offered finance for 80 per cent of the deal value through
EUROPEAN CREDIT. (emphasis mine)
(Abstracted from Financial Times & Economic Times)

Does anybody know what's European credit? That's the only reference I find tothe flows of funds (dollar/Euro). Not much, I agree, but I have to start somewhere.

What a symbol. The only reference to Airbuis which I found in tomorrow's edition of the French Newspapers Le Monde and Le Figaro was in the education supplement to Le Figaro. In an interview of Richard Descoingsof the Council of State and director of Sciences po (political sciences) in Paris in which he calls the institutions involved in project announced by Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schr–der on January 22 to establish a federation of European institutions for higher education "les Airbus universitaires"

Chris PowellComex changes the rules to rescue gold shorts#9697602/06/03; 19:06:19

Latest GATA dispatch.

Comex changes the exchange rules to rescue
the gold shorts.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


Downing St Dossier Plagiarised.

I have been monitoring this story since 2:30 PM today

It could be a Turning Point on if there is a War.

I say could be. Here are the facts as I know it.

This story first broke on a Site I monitor called Democratic Underground.

This was at 2:30 PM EST. (7:30 PM in London)

The gist of it is that Britain's Intelligence Report just published on Monday February 3, 2003 and refered to by Colin Powell in front of the UN and the WORLD on Wednesday February 5, 2003 as an EXQUISITE Intelligence Report by the British.

Turns out to have been COPIED and PLAGIARISED from three seperate sources without their knowledge.

Most of the Information was 5 to 10 Years old.

The people on Democratic Underground started sending the Breaking News to alternate news sources such as DRUDGE.

Drudge picked up the article that I linked above.

Meanwhile back in Britain Channel 4 was airing this story.

Associated Press picked up on the story and it also ended up on Yahoo.

Meanwhile about 9:00 PM London time, Blair went on a National TV show hosted by a very tough interviewer
( like a Tim Russert) in front of a live audience who were quite hard on him.

It seemed to me that Blair almost acknowledged that he needed a 2ND UN resolution authorizing War to Ally with the U.S.

Curiously Bush comes out at 4:30 PM and just about makes a Declaration Of War.

The way I see it what happens now with this story depends how it gets played in Britain tomorrow.

I think it is a very serious matter as it relates to British CREDIBILTY. And by extension Powell praised the Report and Bush in essence just repeated parts of it.

Can the U.S. Go to WAR without Britain ?

I don't see how but then again I don't know. This certainly adds mystery to the story. I am waiting to see if this makes U.S. or Canadian Major Media tomorrow or maybe tonight on Nightline.

ElGordoNew uses for Ag#9697802/06/03; 19:27:17

I have been in contact with a manuf of new superconductor
HTS wire and discussed their new patent win with them.
They use Ag in the first generation wire and learned that they
intend to use it in the next generation HTS wire.

"The preferred noble metal for second generation wire is silver.
Our patent covers the use of silver and any noble metal in intimate contact with the superconductor layer in second generation wires (as well as in any generation), no matter how you manufacture the wire. This patent is, therefore, a fundamental one."
@Kagalaska- There is an application for Ag in fuel cells.
Thats what I have been doing research on. Its hard to get info
as companies are evasive about new designs.

Platinum is used widely now but there is a problem. Its OK to
use Pt in R&D but when fuel cells go into mass production
the cost is too high. Some scientists believe there is not
enough Pt available in any case. I will have more info to post
in a few days.

Go Silver!

mikalMedia clowns working overtime#9697902/06/03; 19:29:45

A chink in the infrastructure armor? Shift of key agency to new Department
of Homeland Security will leave big gaps The Grand Coulee Dam in Washington state, a major source of power in the Northwest, could be an attractive target for terrorists.
By Brock N. Meeks
WASHINGTON, Feb. 6 -- When the Department of Homeland Security's intelligence analysis division opens for business March 1 it will be critically understaffed, has learned. This vital division will be "way behind the power curve in the intelligence game" and forced to make do with a patchwork of temporary workers on loan.....End snippit

Can you say: "Where is our military?"

GaleriderLEGACY#9698002/06/03; 19:30:24


Hi. Yes, he was a Depression child and taught me the value of things. I look upon what he left as secuirty for my family and a legacy to add to and pass on to future generations.
FlaccusAll. . .For the record. . . #9698102/06/03; 19:40:28

If gold comes out of this showing strength (as it is now)look out. . . It will take the gold trading industry by surprise. Throw it a curve.

1) Bull markets climb a wall of worry.

2) Japan could prove to be this bull market's bulwark. To a large extent it already has. And why not: Facing a banking system on the verge of default, a government hell-bent on undermining the value of the currency you are trying to save, and the ultra-bellicose nuclear threat from N.Korea (while your country remains under another's protectorate), wouldn't you seek safe haven in gold? Reality strikes.

3) The professionals traders might be faced with the frightening thought that this market is no longer in their control.

TrojanUpdate: BBC News "UK Defends Plagiarised Document#9698202/06/03; 19:48:30

Just an Update on my original post on the Topic, including UK's take on the issue.

Again how this plays depends on how the British public play it tomorrow and If/Or how Iraq Spins it to the World.

Could be interesting tomorrow.

My Opinion, I think it is disgraceful, misleading and it surely doesn't give me any more confidence in what the U.S. and Britain are claiming.

The Invisible HandThe French Season#9698302/06/03; 20:08:34

I still don't have the financial details, but the French communist newspaper L'Humanité reported that French Prime Mister Raffarin is on a two days visit to India where he will launch "The French Season", which will encompass some happenings in March several towns. Raffarin is being flanked with several business people when they'll arrive in Bangalore, the aircraft capital of India. (Raffarin en Inde les 6 et 7 février Le premier ministre franÁais Jean-Pierre Raffarin fera une visite officielle les 6 et 7 février en Inde o˜ il lancera " la Saison de la France ", série de manifestations économiques et culturelles prévues jusqu'en mars dans les grandes villes de ce pays. Raffarin sera accompagné de plusieurs ministres et d'une importante délégation d'hommes d'affaires lorsqu'il arrivera ý Bangalore, capitale des industries aéronautique et informatique de l'Inde. )

The URLd article from the Times of India reports:
Airbus, Boeing pull out all stops
NEW DELHI: French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin said that Europe's Airbus consortium would soon clinch a $2.1 billion deal to sell 43 commercial jets to state-owned Indian Airlines. And, he hopes a quick approval from the Indian government for the Airbus jets, whose purchase has already been recommended by Indian Airlines' board.
"Indian Airlines has chosen to buy 43 Airbus planes. And of course I hope that this choice will soon be made official," Raffarin told reporters at an air show in Bangalore. Raffarin, who will hold talks with Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee on Friday in New Delhi, said Airbus had established a two-way industrial relationship with India. He said Airbus was also eyeing the fleet renewal programme of Air-India.
Boeing offers more sops: Also in the race for the IA deal, US-based aircraft maker Boeing says it's planning to shift its back-office operations, including accounting and salary payment services for the Southeast Asian region, to India. The operations would be conducted through a new IT arm that would be established in India. Boeing officials told The Times of India that senior officials from Boeing's IT division had visited India last month and are currently exploring the options of setting up the operation here by early 2004. "With the global aviation industry still in a downturn, we are looking at alternate low cost sites for our allied businesses. Given India's excellent technical and accounting brain, we are looking at shifting the back-office operations here," the officials added.
Business for HAL: Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) has bagged a $5 million export contract from Rolls-Royce. The business can grow to $10 million over the next five years. HAL Chairman NR Mohanty said they had already manufactured the first batch of ring forgings, which would be incorporated into Rolls-Royce civil aero engines under manufacture in the UK for world-wide operations, including the Trent 800, which is now on offer to Air India for the Boeing 777.
Pratt and Whitney (P&W), the US-based aircraft engine maker, is planning to triple jobs at its Bangalore-based engineering centre. The firm is working towards introducing small captive power generation sets in India. "We are expanding our engineering operation and intend to add more jobs at the centre. We currently have 50 people working there, and will hike it to 150 people over the next two years," Mahesh Patel, director of P&W's engineering centre said. "We will also be adding jobs at the Hyderabad centre, but we have not finalised the quantum."

KagalaskaThis is not good#9698402/06/03; 20:22:29

Matt Drudge is reporting that a man got through Presidential Security and handed the President an 8 page 'Message from God" about Iraq. I sure hope the rest of us are secure.
21mabrycramer#9698502/06/03; 20:39:40

Just listened to cramers wed. show archived on his site,he sounds like a gold bull'says he has been wrong about gold,and is looking at gold stocks and some silver stocks.He mentioned glamis,newmont,is the sky falling or what,is he trying to say he got in at the start of the gold bull.
Gandalf the WhiteSPOT is recovering well at the VET's from the PAPER AVALANCHE!!#9698602/06/03; 20:44:30$GOLD,P

I thank all you that were concerned about SPIKE and SPOT at the recent PAPER Avalanch occurance ! The Chart at the above LINK shows that SPOT is recovering well and almost ready to start JUMPING AGAIN !
I shall keep you all informed !

OperativeOver the Pond#9698702/06/03; 20:48:55

Short Article on the excitement Gold is creating in UK.
Operative@ 21mabry#9698802/06/03; 20:56:09

Thats what I like about that Cramer fellow, he is as sharp as a new NO.2 pencil. Figured that gold was a good investment way before the average CNBC cheerleader. Wonder how long he stared at the year long gold chart before he arrived at such an outstanding observation? That boy is so far ahead of the curve it's almost as if he has been listening in on phone conversations by Gabby Abby!
You think he figured this out on his own or had help??


Thanks for the post Mabry, it was good for a 5 minute chuckle.

Best to you this evening,

Max RabbitzFrench Iraqi Euro Alliance?#9698902/06/03; 20:56:45

With regard to Colin Powell's presentation, the satellite images of big moving trucks nearby suspect facilities the night before indicated they knew in advance. Now the French want a bigger inspection team and are willing to provide more "help." Like Putin's advisor Tatiyana said, we will be stabbed in the back. The way things are going I'm beginning to think lead will be as precious as gold.

Gandalf......Do I win anything for predicting a Comex "default" in last weeks contest? Maybe a bigger crystal ball? It's not quite a default but I did use quotation marks. I checked the TOCOM and saw Palladium was still trading several years after their rules changes. I guess one paper casino is as good as another if that's what you want.

Pizzmikal#9699002/06/03; 21:00:30

On the Grand Coulee dam:

just the biggest of several on the Columbia River and has pretty good security as do all the dams.

But>>> the major transmission lines string over the Cascade range to the PNW. How in the heck do you guard each and every one of those. Just about as easy as you inspect every container that comes into Long Beach (I think 5% is the number they actually look at).

Homeland defense? Pipe dream. . . .

Buy and hold gold (sorry sector, it's a good close)


OperativeRemember Our Troops#9699102/06/03; 21:01:51

Harms way appears just around the corner. I think counting on another 100 hour war may be underestimating the situation this time around. Remember them in your prayers in the days ahead.

@Galerider, hope/pray you ride this one out. Best to you.


Gandalf the WhiteSir Max Rabbitz --- <;-)#9699202/06/03; 21:26:49

Max Rabbitz (02/06/03; 20:56:45MT - msg#: 96989)
Gandalf......Do I win anything for predicting a ....
Maybe a bigger crystal ball?
YES, Sir Max, You have won a "UPGRADE" for your Crystal Ball ! ZAP !!!! (IT should be much "clearer" NOW !)
What are you seeing for the NEAR future ?

21mabrycramer#9699302/06/03; 21:27:11

Just wondering if cramer becomes a raging gold bull and really starts to promote it as an investment would he be a worthy addition to the gold community.I know he is totally mainstream but he does have a huge audience and a following.Would you all accept him
GaleriderOperative #9699402/06/03; 21:34:09

Hi. Thanks. We be heading west. No political statements, justifications, whining. This is what I signed on for. Iguess the closest I'll get to a statement without causing any controversy on the forum and admin pulling the plug on me......I do this because I'm proud to live in a country where people can express what they want, can question economic and political policies, etc. Oh, and I like the fact that we can live in a country where we can buy gold!
Got me a little and I'm still looking for a Mexican 50 peso,MK! maybe when I get back.

Black BladeTreasury Issues Warning On Debt #9699502/06/03; 21:40:00

Congress Asked To Raise Ceiling


With the federal budget deficit projected to soar, Treasury Department officials said yesterday that they will have to increase the sale of government securities and warned they will soon run out of borrowing authority if Congress does not act quickly to raise the $6.4 trillion ceiling on the national debt.

Black Blade: Outta cash again already eh? Here we go again -- just print some up.

timbervisionKudlow and Cramer#9699602/06/03; 21:50:52

"Are we going to stand by while he poisons our water, and bombs our buildings,like he did a year ago?"

"Come on Shelley, ......come on!!"

The transmutation from Osama Bin Laden to Saddam Hussein is just about complete.

Black BladeCalifornia's Record Deficit Threatens Services, Jobs, Economy#9699702/06/03; 21:58:29


San Francisco, Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Officials in San Jose, California, spent five years developing a $300 million plan for housing, community centers and parking improvements that is now threatened by the state's record $34.6 billion budget deficit.

In San Bernardino County, which stretches across Southern California terrain the size of New Jersey, the libraries expect a 60 percent cut in spending for new books, to $800,000 from $2 million, said county librarian Ed Kieczykowski.

In Sacramento, the state capital, local school superintendent James Sweeney looks back three years to when California was flush with cash as he waits to find out how much money his district will lose.

``We were talking about $10 billion state surpluses, buying computers, doing all kinds of things,'' said Sweeney. ``It's absolutely incredible that in this brief amount of time we've gone from a $10 billion surplus to an astounding shortfall.''

Saddled with a budget gap triple the next largest state deficit, California's governor and lawmakers are considering raising sales, income and cigarette taxes while slashing services and jobs. Those steps will make it harder for the state to recover from a recession that has pushed unemployment to a six-year high of 6.6 percent, according to economists and officials.

By law Governor Gray Davis and the state legislature are required to balance expenses and revenue through spending cuts and tax increases. Their actions are being watched by companies that rate the credit-worthiness of state bonds.

Black Blade: Yeah, like no one saw this coming. Instead of putting cash aside during the years of plenty they spent like drunken sailors on shore leave. Now the chickens come home to roost. There's a deepening recession and another energy crisis coming that will finish the job that the last one started. By raising taxes we can expect to see businesses pack up and leave or shutdown laying off thousands and causing others to reduce spending outta fear further reducing revenues. Somehow I don't see raising taxes as any help. "Reap what you sow" -- I know I used to kid about the "Ant and the Grasshopper", but the finale is playing out now. Winter has come and the Grasshoppers are finally worried, but way too late.

sector@Pizz You needn't apologize sir#9699802/06/03; 22:01:13

Buying and holding is the only way... pinch the government pinchers.

My income is so low that my accountant thinks I'm growing leafy plants in my attic. I may have to sell a few shares in June or get a real job.

Guess I gotta make a few calls.

seagullA good read#9699902/06/03; 22:09:06

Please accept my apologies if this has already been posted, but it is a good read.

Fom the website......
The Dashboard is a revolutionary new publication from Monitoring all the necessary guages of economic health, each issue gives commentary and analysis of the gauges, how they affect one another, and where the economy is likely headed as a result.

You can download the first edition, an interesting document which highlights the wisdom of investing in gold, with a focus on gold funds.

sector@Socrates 964 The "Shunting" Thing#9700002/06/03; 22:18:31

"gold derivative problem can be shunted elsewhere"

YES! JPM does have a free ride and the gold in the treasury has been "Given" to them for safe stewardship. So JPMs Harrison could care less about covering. Poor almost feels sorry for the mope. If only he could tell!

Others won't skate so easily. Producers. Other central banks will just write off the loss differences between the new gold price and the original forward sales price. No effort to get it back. But there's a political cost too, Gordon Brown has toasty feet these days and if there is a debacle in Iraq, Tony "The Poodle" Blair will retire and be re[placed by...who? Anybody in ten-year old Hush Puppies and a gravy-stained tie.

No derivatives rocket, just a steady ramp higher to safety and no more selling. Occasionally producers will panic because nobdy told them to spread out their closures and the G-10 will have to sell more to keep the ramp steady UP towards $630 by year's end. It's really conspicuous.

More on that...down the line.

slingshotMagister Aurelius Msg# 96954#9700102/06/03; 22:37:17

I put aside money from my paycheck. I also have yard sales/swapmeets to make a few dollars. I pick up change off the ground and place it in the change can. Like trading copperwashed pennies for 1/10 oz gold. Yes, you can even pick up aluminum cans. Depends on how grubby you want to get. Your at the right place. Miles ahead of the pack. Each new coin is a battle won.
I have said often, one ounce at a time. It should be one gold coin at a time.

Hang Tough.

Maiden FanTimbervision#9700202/06/03; 22:47:28

"Are we going to stand by while he poisons our water, and bombs our buildings,like he did a year ago?"

Timbervision - I heard that too, and I was furious that he said it. You're right, they're trying to morph Bin Laden into Saddam Hussein in their desperate bid to have this war. I pray that the people who watch this stuff can see through it and reject this kind of inflammatory rhetoric. I pray that there is no war.

The desperation is really showing through in these pundits like Kudlow, Cramer, Hannity, and O'Reilly. I think that they feel that if they can't sell the war now that they'll never be able to. They see public and world opinion shifting against them and they have to put out a full-court-press to try to ram this war down our throats. The evidence that Powell put out yesterday was completely lame. I hope they fail.

slingshotGalerider#9700302/06/03; 22:51:40


I just had to laugh thinking if she played the part of Belushi playing ACNE.


steadyblackblade the ant and the grasshoper #9700402/06/03; 23:00:42

yes the ants are content sleeping well and reflecting of a job well done last spring, early summer, and even on the nice fall harvest>
Black BladeAsian Markets Awash in Red#9700602/06/03; 23:17:09

Looks like another down day for Asian equities markets. Could get "entertaining".

- Black Blade

ElGordoUS gets more involved in Columbia's War-Oil involved as well#9700702/06/03; 23:19:03

SARAVENA, Colombia -- The arrival of U.S. Special Forces trainers in this battered town last month signaled the beginning of a change that gives the United States more direct military involvement in Colombia's long civil war and could lead the country's two leftist guerrilla armies to broaden attacks against U.S. targets.
Advisors, remote jungle, guerilla warfare-this is starting to
sound like another Vietnam.

steadythese guys best have had portfolio insurance #9700802/06/03; 23:29:24

Hedge fund liquidated after steep fall
Katherine Burton and Yukiko Takai Bloomberg News Monday, January 27, 2003
NEW YORK Eifuku Investment Management Ltd. has liquidated its $200 million Tokyo-based hedge fund after it dropped by 98 percent over seven days.
Eifuku Master Fund lost money on stock trades between Jan. 6 and Jan. 15, said John Koonmen, a former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. trader who founded the fund in 1999, in a 14-paragraph letter to investors.

The Invisible HandAnd then the Japanese (housewives) decided to buy gold#9700902/06/03; 23:39:29

Japan's desperate market move
Desperate to prop up the Japanese stock market, the country's economy minister has called on his cabinet colleagues, including the Prime Minister, to start buying shares. Heizo Takenaka said he would invest in tracker funds and "will definitely make money". "I want us to take the lead," he said. ...
"The time to buy is now," claimed Mr Fukuda.
"I may have to buy something, but I want everyone to buy," he added.

Simply MeGuns, Butter and Gold#9701002/06/03; 23:51:15

You know the reason why this country is so strongly divided between pro-war and ant-war sentiment? Because both sides are right. Yes...Saddam Hussein is a megalomaniac who needs to be taken out because he hides all kinds of hideous weapons and will gladly share them with any would-be terrorist who would like to hit the U.S. And, IS about oil, not the owning but the control of oil. The control of oil is essential to keeping the dollar's world hegemony as long as possible.

The dollar faction is fighting the end-game and will burn down this economy before they let go of dollar hegemony.

How long did Bush say this War on Terrorism would last? Oh, yeah...he didn't say. There was some fuzzy hint about 20 years. Now where did I hear that figure before? Oh, yeah....a 20 year bull market in gold.

Take Black Blade's advice. Stock non-perishable food, a back-up stash of cash for emergency needs, and all the gold you can. I would also add, stay close to family or other folks you can trust.

Black BladeRule Changes at the Commodities Exchanges#970112/7/03; 00:25:31

A Short History Lesson

In light of the increase in margin requirements for Gold futures trading I thought a little review of some history may be in order. Just replace "Gold" for "Palladium" and you may have an idea of how the commodities exchanges can "rig" the game. The following is a repost from my 8/27/2000 view of crooked managers at the exchanges. Thanks to a former poster "Netking" for finding this.

Death of a Rigged Metals Market ( msg#: 35599)

The Palladium markets have been under some very strange manipulations over the last several weeks. There is a very good chance that Palladium will be delisted or very severely restricted from futures trading in the near future. Much of this is a result of greedy unscrupulous and probable criminal actions of those that manage and oversee the commodities exchanges in Tokyo at the Tokyo Commodities Exchange (TOCOM) and the New York Metals Exchange (NYMEX). The troubles began when more contracts for Palladium metal were sold than actual deliverable physical metal in the possession of certain counter-parties.

This story has its beginnings in the fall of the Soviet Union. First Russia is the source for about 70% of the worlds Palladium The Palladium is a by-product from nickel mining operations at Norilsk Nickel. Another simple fact is that the Russians have been in a very serious hard currency crunch since the collapse of the Soviet Empire. The Russians took out loans and issued worthless bonds for a few years as they struggled to dig their way out of over 70 years of government mismanagement under communist rule. The Russian Bond default almost brought world markets under severe pressure and many firms went under. However, these people in Russia had no experience with a free-market and still operated their economy under corrupt Soviet-style management practices, they over-taxed businesses, they stole foreign investment monies, and they even got into bed with Russian Organized Crime. Anything of value was looted by criminals and corrupted individuals, many of whom themselves are Russian Politicians or former Politburo members. In the resulting hard currency crunch as the worthless Russian bonds came due and were eventually defaulted on, there was a rush to shake down legitimate businesses through extortion and excessive taxation, to sell off former state-owned enterprises to corrupt cronies of Russian politicians for a pittance, and to loot hard assets including government stockpiles precious metals. The simple fact is that the PGM stockpiles of many years worth of mining are depleted. Any PGMs that are to be delivered will have to come from current mining production at Norilsk Nickel. A major problem at Norilsk Nickel as with most any enterprise in Russia is 1) that the operations are grossly inefficient and are in dire need of funds to upgrade operations to at least 20th century standards, and 2) the Russian workers don't get paid on a regular basis which is not only bad for morale, but does not provide a lot of incentive for productivity. Unfortunately many businesses still try to run on the old Soviet model which simply does not work. In the old Soviet Union, workers were paid a set rate whether or not they were productive. In the real world, this does not provide an incentive to produce goods and services. No matter how you slice it, there is no sufficient supply of Russian Palladium coming to market.

The Russians tried to disguise this inefficiency by employing delaying tactics while in negotiations with the Japanese in talks earlier this year. Eventually the talks resulted in much higher prices for the Palladium contracts, yet supply has not reached the market in any meaningful quantity and is sporadic at best. Realizing the severity of the problem, many commodities investors in Japan bought heavily into the Palladium futures contracts. Like most any greedy and corrupt organization, the TOCOM generously wrote contracts for what was undeliverable metal without checking whether or not this commodity was even in existence. But greed is a powerful emotion and the TOCOM became a place of wild dealing and speculation. They thought that they could control the situation with numerous press releases and by setting "analysts" loose with erroneous information in an effort to deceive the market. Eventually this became a delaying tactic of choice as they searched for a way out of the developing short squeeze. Many who had actually believed the erroneous reports went short the Palladium market. The market was totally out of control. More and more press releases were set loose on the investment community that there were deliveries of Palladium on the way, and that they would arrive "any day" now. The situation was getting more critical almost on an hourly basis as it was beginning to become apparent that the metal was not coming to market. Soon many traders began to go long Palladium futures. The short squeeze was on! The TOCOM manipulators got caught with their pants down around their ankles and even with the risk of "losing face", they did the most dishonorable thing that they could. They defaulted on the Palladium contracts! In effect, they shut down the Palladium market. They forced the longs to settle at market in order to help bail out the shorts. The free-market in Palladium on the TOCOM was killed.

Now we move to New York were the last bastion of the "so-called" free-market in commodities is located in the form of the New York Metals Exchange (NYMEX). Many commodities investors thought that at least in the USA there wouldn't be such gross manipulation of the Palladium market. They were to be proven wrong. A short review of the Hunt Brothers and the Silver squeeze and the more recent settlement at market on the contracts during the developing short squeeze when the Washington Agreement was announced should have been a lesson learned. The corrupt managers of manipulative commodities exchanges such as the NYMEX change rules at will in order to manipulate the markets and to ultimately steal from honest believing investors. The latest manipulation in Palladium brings us to New York. In early August after the TOCOM had defaulted on Palladium futures contracts, the NYMEX realized that they too had a developing short squeeze in the works. What to do? Why not engineer a profit making scheme and manipulate the Palladium market at the same time? Hell, the CFTC is a toothless tiger, so why not? They didn't investigate curious happenings in other metals markets, so the signal was given that the CFTC would not interfere.

In early August, the NYMEX imposed substantial margins on Palladium futures contracts. The result was to drive prices lower in a grossly obvious manipulation of the Palladium market. This caused many investors to quickly exit the market in order to lock in their profits. On August 14, the September Palladium contract fell as much as $60 per ounce. Now all exchanges require margin in order to cover the risk of losses, but in the Palladium market, this went beyond reality. Margins were raised six times in short order. On August 15th it was raised to $60,000 per contract, on August 16th it was raised to $80,000 per contract, and on August 17th it was raised yet again to $100,000 per contract! Of course the 100 ounce contract was only worth $74,000 per contract at that time. The manipulation scheme by the NYMEX criminals was on! The washout of certain investors was set with bogus excuses such as to "ensure an orderly market" - read "manipulated market". By the close of business on August 18th, the margin on contract had risen over the course of 10 days to $100,000 from $5,000 for clearing house members, to $110,000 from $5,000 for members, and to $135,000 from $6,750 for customers. Many had wondered how can a margin requirement be set for as much as 150% of the total contract value? This was unprecedented! They weren't finished! They even had the gall to announce that margins would be raised further to $200,000 as if to tempt fate with the emasculated CFTC, however, this was eventually rescinded prior to implementation. I guess like all cockroaches, when the lights are turned on they scatter to the dark recesses to get out of under public scrutiny.

What was the NYMEX trying to do? The answer is obvious - manipulation, pure and simple! Open interest on outstanding contracts (September) had fallen from 852 to 783 contracts when the market opened after the announcement. Open interest in December futures increased to 1,234 contracts from 900 contracts, indicating that over 300 rollovers had taken place. Many angry market participants claim that this was the intention of the NYMEX manipulators. The NYMEX simply wanted to force as many players out of the market as possible before a truly powerful (and profitable) short squeeze began, or better yet, manipulate the price lower to bail out the shorts just like in Tokyo. Dishonor knows no nationality or culture it seems - crooks hang out in the same circles. The greed factor was at work in New York just as it was in Tokyo. There was not enough metal on hand and yet these NYMEX crooks sold more contracts for metal than existed. In fact, the entire warehouse stocks are only 150 contracts! The NYMEX-approved warehouses are located in New York and Wilmington, Del.

From my point of view, I think that this could be a contract killing situation for most Palladium market participants. However, those who hang on and take delivery may be in an excellent situation. The Russians cannot and will not deliver the metal in sufficient quantity as I have stated for months now. The actual price for the physical metal could far surpass the paper contract price. If only a few participants take delivery, the warehouses are bare. The Platinum metal supply situation is better, yet there are some supply problems here as well. As the industrial users of Palladium shift to Platinum and Rhodium, these prices are likely to come under increased pressure as well. Fortunately Platinum and Rhodium are a bit more available from sources outside of Russia such as South Africa, US, and Canada. The Palladium futures market was killed! There is now speculation that the Palladium market may simply be delisted. Can the same thing happen in other commodities? Obviously! It appears that manipulation in the Gold and Silver markets is an open secret. The CFTC has no compelling interest in performing their stated function of ensuring a free and fair commodities market. The moral of the story? Take possession of physical metal, invest in unhedged and profitable miners who have little or no debt, stay out of the rigged options and futures markets, and wait as the inevitable price increases occur. The death of the paper metals market is certain. The game is rigged.

- Black Blade

CBWSSilver#970122/7/03; 00:54:52

If I wanted to keep aquiring silver at low prices I would try to assure it didn't rise with the POG. For example "Silver must be even MORE a relic than gold" Weak hands let go!.....I think one reason POS stays low is there are no Hung Fats etc. This is so because silver is not currently seen as a political/currency weapon. However, when silver runs out it will be an economic and therefore a political weapon......I hope I am not opening my mouth and removing all doubt here. Just my 1.5¢ worth. Thanks for listening.
BelgianBehind the doors....#970132/7/03; 01:32:04

The ultimate goal of the M.E.- total conquest (!)(not policy) is the removal of The House of Saud ! Make no mistake about this profound intention.
That's what the N.Korean nuclear fuzz is all about.

War is the easiest part of the undertaking...peace, will have to wait for quite some time. The M.E. affair is going to plunge the world into a very dark night indeed. Prepare yourself for prolonged, general, global, detoriation.

Black BladeBrown's Pounds #970142/7/03; 02:07:36


Gordon Brown sold 395 tons of gold - more than half the total - between 1999 and last year, ploughing most of the proceeds into the newly-launched euro. But with gold prices hitting a six-year high yesterday, if he had held on and sold now, Britain would have made an extra pounds 892million. When Mr Brown sold, bullion prices were hovering at a five-year low at an average rate of pounds 167 an ounce. But gold - traditionally viewed as a rock-solid commodity - has made a strong recovery and yesterday its price reached pounds 237. The revelation will strengthen Tory claims that the sell-off was a badly timed bid to shore up the then-faltering euro at Britain's expense. Britain abolished the gold standard in 1931, leaving the gold in the Bank of England's vaults strictly as a store of wealth. Some finance experts still believe it is safer than paper assets such as cash or Treasury bonds.

Black Blade: Not exactly a brilliant move, but then who said politicians were brilliant.

"Suppose you were an idiot . . . . And suppose you were a member of Congress . . . . But I repeat myself." - Mark Twain

Humble Pie #97013#970152/7/03; 02:19:29

I don't like the core of your message ,but I fear it is all too true.The truth always smarts.
UsulTrouble at bank#970162/7/03; 02:21:51

Spending drop hits Commerzbank

"Commerzbank, Germany's third-biggest listed bank, has underlined concerns about the weakness of the country's financial sector, reporting a record loss of €372 million ($733 million) for 2002...

The bank lends to 40 per cent of Germany's small and medium-sized firms...

Commerzbank avoided reporting an even worse result by booking proceeds of €386 million ($760 million) from the sale of a stake in Credit Lyonnais, the French bank, which has yet to be completed..."

More financial prestidigitation... it's the times we live in; set up by the bull market of the millennium; people have dropped their standards. Business can no longer maintain a health balance sheet due to malinvestments and the fallout of losses from the collapse of rampant speculation such as many of the dot-coms in the Nasdaq and the Neuer-Markt. It takes a time of trial such as the Great Depression to restore probity, and eliminate malinvestment. It has to be endured; putting it off with intervention, manipulation, creating unsustainable loan portfolios at record low rates, will only lengthen the ordeal and may well create worse hardship further down the road.

Belgian@ Humble Pie#970172/7/03; 02:58:39

The world as it is Sir. Very unfortunately, Not as we wish it to be. The oil companies want it to happen...the financial brotherhood wants it...And wait up until oil-money will be (must be) associated with terror (still more to come). OPEC, oil money that is.
During the past 30 years, the globe was able to *contain* M.E.-chaos, that it created purposely. Today, I (and many others), fear that this is NOT possible anymore. Will see.

Euro/dollar is in an ABC-consolidation pattern, before resuming euro-strength.

Black BladeBritish Gamblers Bet on Gold as War Signals Get Louder#970182/7/03; 02:58:58


Feb. 6--City bookmakers are attracting bets as large as UKpound 950,000 on the gold price as war fever makes the yellow metal the latest speculative mania for British private investors. The main vehicle for this latest craze is spread betting, which enables speculators to take long or short positions of almost any size without having to worry about paying capital gains tax on profits. Unofficial estimates are that between 1000 and 2000 clients of spread bookmakers such as IG Index, CMC/deal4free and City Index are betting on gold at present. Most of these trades are up-bets, aimed at taking advantage of further rises in the metal's price but also vulnerable to any sharp setback.

One City punter is understood to have pocketed a UKpound 600,000 profit after betting just three weeks ago on a surge in the price of gold. The unnamed man placed a buy order with City Index when the price stood at $350. Each $1 rise in the price of bullion netted him a profit of UKpound 20,000. One punter active in both gold and silver said: "The crises over Iraq and North Korea, and the weakness of the dollar, are forcing gold up. "When you tell friends that you have gone long of gold, they are more impressed than when you tell them you are long of Vodafone or the Footsie."

Black Blade: I guess you can wager on just about anything these days. But then one could argue that Wall Street is one large casino. "Interesting Times"

TopazSimply me.#970192/7/03; 03:52:19

Ah! simply a Grandma, what a pleasure to open the old Forum page and read your sage comments, a little Boy wasn't it?

Yes, it IS about Oil (not necessarily Iraqi)...and Hegemony, and protecting vested oil interests, what a pity!
...why only month's before Saddam became (again) PE No1 the i-net was identifying him as GWB's LARGEST campaign contributor...sheesh!

I really believe if the US would focus more on her strengths...not weaknesses, the World could weather this financial Storm and again become a fit and proper place to live.
You guys have franchises that are the envy of the World and...given a weaker Dollar, could exploit them to the Max. It is such a shame your Admin and assoc's are entwined mostly in the Oil franchise.

Fond regards.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Ally yourself with a gold broker that is knowledgeable and also cares...#970202/7/03; 04:12:32


In the September 2000 issue of News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals' founder and proprietor Michael Kosares said:

"[M]uch of this issue is devoted to oil, inflation, international politics and gold. . . . . Though the dollar continued to rise against most international currencies during the past month, most currencies ( including the dollar) were depreciating against real goods. . . . AND IT IS THE TREND THAT HAS ECONOMISTS CONCERNED. Crude oil, which must be purchased with dollars, is being blamed as the chief culprit. When the dollar price of oil rises, it fans the inflationary fires of nearly every nation in the world. All of this could at some point inspire a dollar rebellion among the nations of the world, with both oil producers and oil consumers capable of finding fault with the dollar simultaneously . . . . In such a case gold, of course, would become one of the primary beneficiaries and the dollar could go into a tailspin."

ABCs bookTake note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:

1. They averted disaster in the stock market.

2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.

News & Views is available to our clientele only. However, the latest issue is just back from the printer and available to prospective gold investors who request an INFORMATION PACKET on one-time only basis. We invite your request.

If you would like to get a feel for the thinking that forms the basis for market conclusions like the one featured above, take advantage of the offer to include THE ABCs of GOLD INVESTING: PROTECTING YOUR WEALTH THROUGH PRIVATE GOLD OWNERSHIP. A prompt with ordering information will come up after you submit your request for the INFORMATION PACKET.

Black BladePre-Market#970212/7/03; 05:18:08

Gold and Silver are higher, Oil and NatGas are higher, the USD is higher, US market index futures are higher, etc. Quite a start to the day. Unemployment data set to be released in about an hour so all this could change. Petroleum prices are reaching for much higher prices. Meanwhile a lot of weak corporate earnings and horrible corporate guidance. Could get very "entertaining" on Wall Street today.

- Black Blade

Humble Pie@Belgian#970222/7/03; 06:45:02

Again how true, We in the western world {usa] have been wallowing in conspicuous consumption for the last 50 years and to what good. This present day situation is what it has brought us and we are about to reap the whirlwind of chaos and misery.
sectoryen and euro spiking down just now ...#970232/7/03; 07:01:40

...usually signals a dollar pop, and gold bop

...we'll see.
TruthcasterJobless Rate 5.7%#970242/7/03; 07:07:01

Unemployment Drop to 5.7% Jobs Added 143,000
Bloomberg is reporting.. Looks like we just got a pop
in the dollar too. Should be a fun day.. ;o)

Cavan Mansector#970252/7/03; 07:32:44

This must be the long awaited economic recovery! 143,000 jobs is like a deck chair on the Titanic. I can assure everyone those jobs were NOT high paying positions with good benefits. The entire industrial SECTOR of the US economy is operating under a rigorous fixed cost review.
TruthcasterGold is on the Move!!#970262/7/03; 08:15:36

Hey Guy & Gal's gold is off and running
maybe the down turn in PM's is over for
the time.. ;o)

Broken Teetest#970272/7/03; 09:00:14

Test posting
Mr GreshamBlack Blade#970282/7/03; 09:11:32

Thanks for the two insights into "organized" metals gambling. The London bookie market, and the NYMEX manipulations.

When you think of recent price moves as something that might have been arbitraged between different (taxable? nontaxable?) entities in different markets in different countries, you could see how players might scramble and produce a $20 move overnight.

If someone was arbing a taxfree London bookie gain against a losing short in New York, and the bookie was laying it off in another market (and scrambling to keep his risks level -- probably with better delta hedging instincts than Jim Sinclair grants the hedge funds with), the volatility could get "interesting".

It certainly makes more and more clear the possibilities of a separation between "paper" and physical. When the exchange's managers are not the neutral arbiters between longs and shorts (in appropriate quantity) then the London bookies are probably the more honest backers of a "paper" product.

Socrates964Open interest on COMEX#970292/7/03; 09:16:23

Any way of monitoring this, to see the impact of the new margin requirements?
CaradocTrack open interest?#970302/7/03; 09:59:33

Good idea! Would also be interesting to track what people in various places around the planet are paying for the "real thing" as opposed to a paper promise.
PH in LAJoke of the Day: Macdonalds' Bagel Breaks Teeth... Ruins Mariage#970312/7/03; 10:02:51

"A couple is suing the franchisee of a McDonald's restaurant, claiming an improperly prepared bagel damaged the husband's teeth and their marriage..."

What will they think of next? Something new under the sun? Or just another get-rich-quick scam?

sector@CavenMan -- It's Noise#970322/7/03; 10:08:36

Jobs, Econ data, war, oil

The US economy stares into an abyss no matter which way it's cut. Greenspan is skydiving without a parachute, imagining that flapping his arms will soften the landing.

The real issue here is when will the gold shares discover what is happening in the gold market? When will the fund managers realize that there isn't going to be a pull-back and cut loose their money? They can be left at the dock.

The price of gold will breach $630 by the end of the year because of the existence of a G-10 plan to put it there...on a freaking straight line.

No derivatives explosion, no Washington Agreement spikes…just a relentless, merciless, unstoppable, gold-short-slaughtering, grind a price where non-central bank gold emerges to quell the decades-old hunger of world gold lovers. Throw a dart between $1,000 and $3,000 per ounce after Jan 2004.

Watch the dollar [Major Currency Dollar Index, H.10 Fed Report] sink to 65 by 2004. It's 95 today.

Gold is not driven upwards by a few rich, fat Asians smoking expensive Cuban cigars, but by the ABSENCE of official sector selling which is the only meaning source of market selling today. They have capitulated. This is their way of retreating. Salvaging some of the wounded bullion banks with their hapless, mumbling CEOs and their fatally wounded, acolyte miners.

They have bled enough central bank gold in this war. Ferdi Lips…break out your champagne! Lead the Swiss to the battle field, show them the gold cartel's rotting cadavers, save the remaining Swiss golden treasure!

The gold bugs have won...we just don't appreciate it yet. We still think the virus-encrusted corpse of the central banks will rise again to deliver another "Fall-back".

The manipulative, arrogant, monster of a beast is dead. The Golden Lilliputians have vanquished the thuggish dolts in expensive suits with their brigades of dumbed-down econo-physicists and their zombie-like, paper-pushing pathetic politicians.

In the end…they could not deal with the truth. They have been burned to a crisp by the searing light.

Mr GreshamHow do you feel...#970332/7/03; 10:35:31

after reading this? Sinclair details, or relays, some of the abuses practiced by dealers in the "securities" markets.

When you read all of the different hands that your transaction must go through, and all of the clearings, and "buys" and recordings and settlements...all for your tiny $7 commission to cover it all?!? And buy them next year's Mercedes??? Tell me another one. They're going after your entire nut.

Stocks are going to get like real estate. You're going to need title insurance to prove you actually own a real block of shares in a real company. Otherwise, the traditional Florida swampland starts looking good by comparison.

Enough editorializing for today -- If there were ever to be a time for Ponzi schemes to be at their max, it would be now.

balzacU.S. JOB NUMBERS#970342/7/03; 10:50:12

Reply to------ TRUTHCASTER

U.S. jobs numbers are bogus---I believe BB instead.
Dollar BillBlack Blade#970362/7/03; 10:56:31

Thank you for post 97011.
And other daily posts.
I wish I could just turn away and read -The Decade in Review- on USAGOLD in 2010, but I cannot stop watching this
global slow train wreck.

a nation of onewhither, whyfore, and thereafter ... (pog)#970372/7/03; 10:57:53

The primary trend is upward. The secondary trend is downward. Therefore it is more likely that POG will ultimately go higher, but in the meantime it is more likely to go down. Sells have been strong today and yesterday, occurring after relatively weak buying. Still, the buys have more influence, so the trend continues strongly upward. However, the 12 hour moving average and the 2 hour moving average are both pointing down, and in recent hours POG has been forming lower lows and lower highs. This morning POG could be said to be trading approximately in a triangle. The triangle's top declines much more downward than its bottom inclines up. Since strong sells have been following relatively weak buys, instead of the other way round, I would say that this all adds up to lower prices for gold. I would guess that within the next day or so one ounce of gold may fetch a price less than 362, more or less, perhaps lower. Just a guess.
Dollar BillRecent Oro#970382/7/03; 11:03:25

I reviewed the last days of Oro and Another, this post belongs on this forum and archives.

The Sinclair Gold Reserve model
Another thing that can't work

This actually is the "gold bubble" reserve system forecast by FOA. The various central banks accumulate gold and mark it to market and then book the value of the gold holdings as backing for the outstanding currency accounts at some reserve coverage ratio.

While the idea would seem positive for gold holders, it is destined to destroy the currencies and the gold market; and would require the gold holder to unload quickly when the bubble is bursting, as it certainly will, and put the money into productive real assets.

The main weaknesses in the idea that CBs buy gold to issue currency are that the currency is still issued without any built-in weighting of market needs for a market clearing interest rate, money supply, and gold price. The second point is that there is no mechanism to provide the market with a reason to hold currency when it is not convertible into gold but at the microsecond before making a currency payment. The currency, without a conversion into the gold supposedly backing it, would trade at a substantial discount to the gold holdings of the CBs issuing it.

In short: no one but central bankers cares how much gold is in the CB coffers so long as none of it is available for withdrawal at any parity level.

The other point is that so long as the metal is not a legal tender, the supply-demand balance for dollars, euro and any other currency would be separate, as would be the supply-demand balance for gold.

Thus, if the supply-demand balance for the dollar is globally negative as it had been in the 1996-2000 period (though it was domestically positive during late 98 - early 99 – hence the Fed's contribution to the bubble), this would require the CB to purchase gold, currency, or securities off the markets in order to increase the monetary base and partially plug the deficit in the supply-demand balance (thus decreasing currency interest rates while increasing gold interest rates and the POG) – and to sell gold and securities in order to absorb over-liquidity when the supply-demand balance is in excess (thus increasing currency interest rates while decreasing gold interest rates and the POG).

Of course, the CB does not know the supply demand balance till well after the fact. Furthermore, the political and business pressure would constantly be on the side of more currency, and thus would push the CB to buy more gold as the greater political expedient.

The end result remains an arbitrary short interest environment on the currency markets, just with the addition of an arbitrary interest rate in the gold credit/derivatives market. The CB remains without any guide to deciding interest rates or monetary growth targets. (Neither of which should be within a CB's jurisdictional capacity – meaning that the fact remains that an optimal monetary system and a central bank are mutually exclusive propositions. Since the claim is made as to there being an optimal monetary system it should be presented: a free, unregulated monetary system with freely issued money substitutes and an appropriate free market choice as to what constitutes money – which would probably not be just gold alone.)

It should be pointed out that I do not share the Chicago School – Monetarist belief that the money supply should grow at any particular rate, nor that the money supply should change at all, nor that it should remain fixed. Nor do I believe that it is entirely knowable what the money supply is at any time, much less have centralized decisions as to what it "should be" anything but arbitrary.

My point is that central banks are market interference systems, and their mere existence prevents the market from clearing interest rates for any maturity, nor does a CB allow the appropriate market discounting of gold (or anything else) to bank notes/accounts/bonds. I must also put forward the historical fact that central banks were instituted in the first place for the purpose of preventing the market from clearing interest rates and discounts of notes, particularly government notes - and to prevent the marketplace from discounting the liabilities of bad credits, particularly among the large politically significant groups of banks and corporations.

As for the function of a free monetary and banking system that evolved largely into the use of gold for money, I should point out that the key to its stability is the operation of financiers constantly on the lookout to raid bank's reserves in order to force them into selling assets at a discount, thus maintaining bank credit restraint and tying more closely the money supply to the real current economic output and accumulated resources, and through a volatile short term interest rate (caused by the gold liquidity constraint) restraining the markets from attempting to invest unavailable resources.

The intimate connection between the quantity of gold available for investment activity and the volatile short term interest rate act to restrict the financing of ventures for which resources are unavailable, and allows holders of gold to decide whether to hold on to their gold, spend it, or allocate it into investment. Thus if interest rates spike up due to the offering of an investment venture, the gold saver is urged to invest and save (refrain from spending) more gold, in order to clear the resources necessary for the investment.

There is another contributor to stability in the gold based system in the nature of gold uses outside of money and in the nature of gold deposits. Gold is used mostly for purposes in which the metal is not lost, thus allowing the market to respond to monetary gold shortages with the immediate offering of jewelry for melting. Since a gold shortage means higher gold purchasing power, gold mining becomes more profitable and output increases. Since gold mining and distribution involves the use of all technologies and the nature of gold deposits requires either consecutively higher real gold purchasing power to obtain new production, or an improvement in actually productive technology that lowers the cost of mining the gold as in all other productive endeavor. Over time, the outstanding quantity of monetary gold and pricing of items matches closely the developments of the real economy and thus eliminates the problem of over-investment and under-investment by causing rates to rise when too many investment projects are being financed without requisite savings, and to fall when resources are available for use. The degrees of freedom in the gold based monetary system (or generally commodity based monetary systems) allow multiple avenues for the markets to meet real economic and financial events. Fiat debt currencies have no automatic stabilization inherent in them and the central banks that are necessary to allow the debt currency to avoid perpetual cycles of rapid inflation and deflation. With a central bank, the cycles are smoothed out by the institution of perpetual inflation to bail out those caught overly in debt at end of the inflationary cycle.

A central bank necessarily prevents the process of short-term rates adjusting according to investment and savings volumes from occurring if it targets interest rates, nor can the process occur when the money supply is targeted. The necessary result is that if the central bank underestimated the clearing interest rate or overestimated the money supply needs, then the markets will attempt to make investments that use unavailable resources – only to find out after the investment is made that the input prices are too high and the product price is too low to provide the expected return. If it errs on the high side on interest rates or the low side on money supply, then markets will be restrained from putting to use available resources, which would remain unused or would be wasted. So long as a central bank exists, the market clearing set of interest rates, particularly short rates, the monetary base, and the purchasing power of the money, can not be set at the correct levels. If they are, it is solely due to chance.

A further problem with the Sinclair model is that it picks out the wrong figure for money supply for central bank purposes. M3 includes a heavy concentration (over 1/4) of floating value paper in money market accounts that is not related to the bank liabilities that the Fed backs. If money market accounts are included, then all other floating value financial instruments would have to be targeted as part of the money supply – including bonds and stocks.

Another point I want to make is that debt money systems do not clear. Meaning that at the end of each day of musical finance, liabilities further exceed assets and someone has no "chair". The deficit is either filled in by central bank monetary injections, or some liabilities are eventually "cancelled" through bankruptcy. The smaller the portion of the financial market taken by banks, the smaller the need for monetary injections. The less leveraged the banks, the less need there is for the central bank to maintain liquidity.

Furthermore, the issue of government spending, i.e. the effective tax rate and tax equivalent of the regulatory burden must be considered in making any estimate of a target for M3 or anything else the Fed might target. Roughly as Jude Wanniski claims, M3 and financial asset values in general should rise AND FALL in proportion to the effective tax rate. Thus if the GDP tax rate rises from 20% to 36% (roughly as it did during the Johnson-Carter era) money supply and financial asset values should drop by about 65% in order to avoid price inflation. An attempt to prevent this drop in money supply would simply cause a drop in the real value of floating value securities to compensate for the growth of the money supply – in other words, the FORCED growth of bank's market share in the financial markets. Thus a long bond yielding say 5% purchased in the mid 60s would have lost 81% in real terms (total return) by 1980.
The obverse is true as well. By choosing interest rates that are high enough so that M3 – or what have you - is NOT EXPANDING at the appropriate rate relative to taxation, the floating value portion of the financial markets would expand in real terms to compensate for the missed opportunities of banks that were prevented from making loans due to the Fed's artificially high interest rates. Thus the drop in GDP tax rates from 36% to 21-22% that occurred during the 80s and 90s (till the Congress went onto its pork barrel spending spree in 99-2000) should have brought REAL growth in M2, or whatever aggregate, by more than 65%. As the Fed was a little tight during most of the Volcker and Greenspan period, the actual real return on a long bond purchased in 1980 at a yield of 15% brought a total real return of 450%, 9% per annum (without reinvestment).
The funny thing to note is that prices did not fall due to the tight interest rates. What caused prices to rise was the portion of monetary demand that disappeared with each of the periodic bouts of mass bankruptcy that started with Volcker's early 80s "beat inflation at any cost" policy. As we see today, gold prices and the CRB are rising as the demand for money from over $3 trillion of defaulted, paid down, and debt to equity swapped emerging market debt and over $2/3 trillion of US defaults (so far since 2000) is permanently extinct, while the recovering Asian and other emerging economies and their foreign investors borrow dollars into existence like there is no tomorrow – thus skewing the global dollar supply-demand balance far forward and cratering the dollar beyond what would have happened if the fear of terrorist reprisals against economically significant targets in the US in the wake of a war against Iraq were the only factor of concern.

No theory, nor set of indicators, is at all possible that would allow the decision to be made centrally as to what the money supply, price level, and interest rates "should be". The advent of any such theory or set of indicators would rapidly be discounted into the marketplace, thus removing its usefulness for making the determination.

This is because the interest rate, the money supply (including the market choice of what constitutes money), and the price level, are all due to individual opinions and expectations as to the particular decision points at which money is spent (and on what to spend and at what price), saved, or invested. The existence of a widely accepted theory as to the relationship between these would be incorporated into these opinions and expectations, thus removing the theory's predictive power. Only those components of theory that are necessary consequences of actions taken due to the particular opinions and expectations can be permanent in their predictive powers. The prediction – or even the determination - of opinions and expectations can never be anything more than guess work, since the actual opinion of people in practice differs substantially from their stated opinions before the action, or before they are confronted with the actual environment in which action is taken. It is rare for us to be able to put our broad knowledge of a multitude of particulars and their complex interrelationships into lucid words – those of us that can are highly specialized scientists, technicians, businessmen, marketers, and philosophers. It is rare for any to be able to put forward a coherent view readily understandable by those outside our specializations.

silvercollectorsector#970392/7/03; 11:11:45

I'm sure that you have mentioned this before but..........where does the $630 number come from?


Daniel DruffElGordo#970402/7/03; 11:27:40

Times up...

Your 'New uses for Ag', msg# 96978 was an excellent example of a face-lift to the Image Issue of Silver. I must say that your generosity does not go unnoticed. If I were going into the wire biz, I would certainly want to keep the material costs down. Thank you

24 hours, or so, and NO WINNERS...and I rest my's doubtful that the frivolous use of silver in the throwaway camera SECTOR contributes a whole lot to sharfins annual silver supply deficit. If it did, someone would know about it.

But lets keep the question in mind: How much silver is being wasted annually in the use of throwaway cameras?

Silver is not trash, Ladies and Gentlemen. I know this Truth from the Highest Authority, The Word of God. "Gold, Silver, and Precious Stones..." is mentioned in Daniel and Revelation. Since religious talk is forbidden here, I will suggest you do your own DD in this area.

Finally, the time may come when your local pharmacist will be licensed to dispense Silver as a curative of incredible value. We are instructed to husband our wealth...throwaway cameras does not fall into that activity. We have an image problem and the time has come to get a bit indignant.

ElGordo, the Kodaks of the world should not be allowed to use silver at your expense. You might consider a gentle complaint to your Congressman. I wish you the very best in your venture.

Thank you

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TrojanBritish Government Plagarises and Alters Intelligence Report#970422/7/03; 11:41:38

Last night in my Message # 96977 I brought to the Forum's attention the Breaking Story on Downing Street's Intelligence Documemt submitted to the UN on Wednesday, and praised by Colin Powell in his address to the UN and the World.

Since the Story only broke at 7:30 PM (London time)
there was no coverage in the U.S. media about this story.

By this morning it has become a very High topic of debate in the U.K. The British Government has already acknowledged its mistake.

Britain's Guardian newspaper in Friday morning editions describe the Intelligence Report as a "Sham" and "An electronic cut-and-paste operation by Whitehall officials."

This story has slowly started to make its appearance in the U.S. press as witnessed above. It has not reached the mainstream press as yet though the wire services such as UPI have done a story on it.

Why is this News item Important ?

A recent poll in the U.K. has shown 84% oppose Britain's role in the War.

This story is going to further infuriate the British public and members of parliament and other high powered critics in Britain are going with this revelation in their efforts to stop Britain from going to War.

If Bush loses Blair's support the potential War with Iraq might isolate the U.S. more than it is now.

War or No War, it could have a great effect on all our lives.

The Financial Markets would have more uncertainty than ever. The U.S. has just raised their Alert Level to Orange.

War might be good for Gold but who knows what the Unknown might mean for us all.

God Bless Us All

cyberbatSpot Price settlement#970432/7/03; 11:41:38

What would be the odds on gold closing the same, to the dime, 2 days in a row? They now have total control with an unlimited amount of paper to make sure things go their way. What chance do we have when we are up against tne FED and the hedgers, which in all probably are in colusion together. It's really getting old. Consider this---If gold is not immune to manipulation, what is. Do they have everything rigged and are just waiting on the suckers from the sidelines to step back in to the market again?
I'm getting close to reaching for the towel folks. It's never going to stop!!

adminOld Yeller, Dollar Bill, Oro#970442/7/03; 12:03:00

Because Oro's presentations are of interest to the participants of this Forum, we will allow the Dollar Bill post to remain. The Old Yeller post, however, links to K-co which is a competitor. Therefore, that post has been removed. Keep in mind that we do not endorse the views of any poster, but simply provide the venue under the rules posted herein.

We request that Oro contact us by e-mail if he has an interest in returning to this forum as a participant under those guidelines. Under limited and special circumstances, we have restored posting privileges in the past on a trial basis.

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Thank you.

GoldnSilver2002New terrorist threat,war and sliding dow equals cheaper gold?#970452/7/03; 12:14:20

I see things differently,firstly they know we are in a major bull and that gold is a vote against the fed.So what do they do?All will be well after the war,gold is going down see?370 is not down,but one can see that since the chinese went on holiday the cabal has had a better run at capping gold,all the while the media screams dont buy gold.New terrorist threats,bush stating "the game is over" and a dow slipping away,a death by a thousand cuts.This is custer's last stand.They want your gold stocks cheaper and for you to sell your gold.Knowing how long goldbugs have waited this is a desperate attempt to scare the public off gold.The problem?The world is not fooled.This reeks of a last desperate attempt,knowing the physical will soon run dry,they take a huge run at gold to get it back cheap,what happens gold keeps bursting over 370.The dow will continue down,the world will continue selling usd and the demand for physical overseas will continue at these bargain prices.This is orwellian 1984 type double talk at its best.Think about it:terrorism'sinking markets'sinking usd and war must mean gold is going down.They control the masses through blatant misinformation.If gold doesnt go up,there will be no new mining.Demand will continue to outstrip supply with no new supply coming to market unless the masses surrender their physical willingly.Markets are about supply and demand not manipulation.If they had total power gold would not be 370 and dow wouldnt be slowly tanking.This is an all out effort to keep people in the usd the markets and out of gold.
Aristotlecyberbat, "If gold is not immune to manipulation, what is?" #97043#970462/7/03; 12:39:28

How about a little perspective on this...

The purchasing power of the dollar is being manipulated. The purchasing power of Gold is being manipulated.

During the game and at the end of the game, which one do you really want to be holding? Which one gives you more security?

If these "sinister" official sector(???) manipulations can forever be done without fail -- to point where you feel like throwing in the towel -- ask yourself this important question: What do you suppose is in store for the dollar? Is it going to get stronger, or is it going to get weaker?

If you think the answer is "get stronger," then we need to revisit the premise that has you throwing in the towel. If the manipulative powers have that unfailing ability, then why has the dollar in fact lost so much of its purchasing power throughout the past half-century, including its current bout of weakness? Consider also that we've seen many pronouncements by other monetary officials around the world that commonly fret over the strength of their own currencies, and ensure the markets that they will act if necessary to stem a rise. The Swiss recently expressed that commitment, and the Japanese have made it a national pastime. Even the American administration takes its share of flak from manufacturers (exporters) who would like to see a weaker dollar.

If, on reconsideration, you think the fate of the dollar is to continue its longterm trend of getting weaker, then the case for holding Gold is made.

For the sake of brevity, I won't rehash how its primarily the price/value of the market in paper Gold that's being manipulated. In the meantime, the perspective to hold is this:

If it came to your mind that monetary officials and commercial players were using derivative and OTC markets to manipulate lower the price of prime rib, caviar,and champagne, would you throw in the towel? Hell no! For as long as it lasts let's eat like kings with our incomes like peasants!!!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Old YellerAdmin#970472/7/03; 12:40:04

That's excellent news,I will be forever grateful to ORO
and USAGOLD for providing me with a wealth of information
that goes far beyond the usual "trading range" of economic

And,of course,FOA.

AristotleDoh!#970482/7/03; 12:42:16

Should say:
"...and ASSURE the markets..."

Gold. Get it. Got it? Good! --- Ari

CaradocCall me paranoid....#970492/7/03; 12:42:35

Today's price action -- minute by minute -- graphs out as having approached or equalled yesterday's price no less than seven times so far today. I'd think the manipulation would be less evident if they let it exceed yesterday's price at least once even if only for a few minutes. Since the manipulators aren't bothering with such niceties, I suspect that we're getting a clear message as to today's close in the world of paper gold. Which as I see it makes real gold an even better buy.
WaveriderArab World News #970502/7/03; 12:43:58

Gold and Gold bars featured as the cover story of the Arab World News website!
Clint Hthrowaway cameras#970512/7/03; 12:58:02

Daniel Druff msg#: 97040)
<<But lets keep the question in mind: How much silver is being wasted annually in the use of throwaway cameras?>>

I keep reading these statements about throwaway cameras. There is a roll of film inside the camera. The film is developed and returned to the customer as prints and negatives the same as any other roll of film.

The only thing that is disposable is the plastic case. What does this have to do with silver above other film?

Clint Hpremiums#970522/7/03; 13:04:27

Caradoc msg#: 97049)
Call me paranoid....
<<Today's price action -- minute by minute -- graphs out as having approached or equaled yesterday's price no less than seven times so far today. I suspect that we're getting a clear message as to today's close in the world of paper gold. Which as I see it makes real gold an even better buy.>>

The premiums are starting to go up. Is this the start of the separation?

WaveriderDAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT #970532/7/03; 13:13:08

Great explanation of how the "seasonality" filter skewed the employment data released today - thanks Black Blade.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Real gold, real easy. Delivered to your door.#970542/7/03; 13:22:15


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spook69OT - Iraqi Information Article#970552/7/03; 13:24:15

Lurking along absorbing what I can. Thought this might be of some interest. Couldn't believe CNN actually ran the story.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...)#970562/7/03; 13:24:17

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USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...#970572/7/03; 13:37:26

Q. How does USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals position itself among its competitors with regard to credibility, reputability and pricing?

MK. USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals has always been considered one of the most reputable firms in the business and it's always been that way. We have placed literally thousands of ounces of gold with investors and our repeat business and referrals are both very strong. That doesn't happen unless you know what you are doing and your clients know that you know what you are doing. If I were to sum it up, I would say we combine the first rate services and research that you would expect from a very large firm with the favorable pricing you would expect from a smaller, client-conscious firm.

Black BladeNatural Gas Industry - Update#970582/7/03; 13:48:40

EIA Reports Larger-Than-Expected 208 Bcf Withdrawal

The EIA reported a 208 Bcf withdrawal, which was larger than the Street's expectations of a 192-199 Bcf withdrawal and our estimate of a 180-190 Bcf withdrawal.

*We estimate this week's report implies that the gas markets are ~4 Bcf/d tighter relative to last year on a weather-adjusted basis. This week's withdrawal also probably benefited from a carryover from the prior week's extremely cold weather.

*The near-month (March) contract is trading up $0.08 intraday on the EIA's report at $5.72/MMBtu.

*NOAA has forecasted 196 degree-days for the week ending February 8, 2002. If the forecast is accurate, we expect next week's EIA report to show a withdrawal of approximately 160-180.

*We continue to believe the natural gas markets are poised for a major supply shock this winter, the beginnings of which are only just starting to be reflected in prices. As such, we remain extremely bullish on natural gas prices.

U.S. Storage

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported levels of working natural S. storage facilities decreased 208 billion cubic feet (Bcf) during the week ended January 31, versus a withdrawal of 79 Bcf in the same week last year. Working gas in storage totaled 1,521 billion cubic feet, versus 2,332 Bcf in storage last year. There is now 811 Bcf less gas in storage than last year at this time. This week's withdrawal was larger than the Street's range of expectations, which called for a 192-199 Bcf withdrawal. As a result, the near-month (March) natural gas contract traded up $0.08 intraday at $5.72/MMBtu.

Canadian Storage

The Canadian Gas Association reported that levels of working gas in storage decreased 36.0 Bcf for the week ending January 24, compared to a withdrawal of 22.3 Bcf during the same week last year. Levels of gas in storage totaled 209.5 Bcf, or 43.2% of capacity, versus 80.5% last year. Volumes of gas in Canadian storage are 180.7 Bcf below last year's level.

Black Blade: Canadian storage is extremely low and looks to finish the season near depletion. They will be of no help to the U.S. for injection season this year. Meanwhile, US production is declining and there is no evidence of increased drilling planned for injection season. Due to credit downgrades many companies are drawing off storage for quick cash to pay down debt while slashing costs (including exploration and production). The weather outlook going into next week looks to be much the same and draw downs are expected to remain very high. Fuel switching is limited due to the high cost of oil and until NatGas prices rise substantially higher the withdrawal from storage shows no sign of easing. The effects will be severely felt by consumers and corporate earnings. War or no war, the result will be another energy crisis (actually there already is an energy crisis).

Currently oil is over $35/bbl and NatGas over $6 Mmbtu.

Daniel DruffClint H#970592/7/03; 14:05:28

throwaway cameras

You probably didn't see my Frivolous Use Tax didn't go over so well.

"The only thing that is disposable is the plastic case. What does this have to do with silver above other film?" Clint H

If the manufacture and distribution of these insidious devices were curtailed, the world would be a better place in which to that a bit of a stretch? I think not!

To encourage the haphazard and frivolous destruction of silver by providing cheap pictures is not to the benefit of society in the long term. Let the tourists buy postcards. Or put the security people to work with their digital cameras. Give them your address and let the agency send you copies. Be imaginative.

Silver is too valuable a commodity to allow a parasitic industry to take advantage of mankind's current ignorance.
This issue is not unlike the tabacco issue. [Do you think it will fly?]

Thank you

Maverick1Black Blade#970602/7/03; 14:28:51

Can I use your post about TOCOM palladium next door (GE)? A person going by the handle "WANKA" says the margin increase for gold futures is meaningless. Could you set him straight or let me with your post?
CaradocPremiums (Clint H.)#970612/7/03; 14:34:53

Good question. But whether or not history records today as the point that marked the divergence between paper gold and real gold, the fact remains that markets trade in a largely imaginary commodity called "gold," which happens to be spelled the same way as a certain yellow metal which throughout the history of mankind has represented wealth.

Putting the right words in the mouths of the talking heads is one overt way of manipulating the market. Another is raising the minimum investment. Progressively, a announcing settlement at market value only ("No delivery allowed; we're only playing games here") is a third route. The fourth is simply to reneg ("Sorry about that"). We've already seen the first two of these overt methods plus who knows what combination of less obvious manipulative techniques.

It will be interesting to see how it plays out. One thing for sure: the Chinese investor, the Japanese housewife, and the bride's father in India are all adding to demand for the real thing.

Black BladeMaverick1#970622/7/03; 14:38:55

I have no problem with that. From my POV, the message is more important than the messenger. The post was what I had posted a couple of years ago and though the names have changed, the game remains the same. You may want to mention that USAGOLD is one of their advertisers though. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Clink!@ Daniel Druff#970632/7/03; 14:49:45

Well, heck, Daniel ! If you want to start a list of things that should be labelled and forbidden as being a frivolous waste, shouldn't we start with more serious things such as, say, SUVs, uninsulated glass, overuse of nitrates, wasted fresh water, etc. And of course, these items would be decided by the industries paying the most soft money to our representatives (who are probably the best example of frivolous waste in themselves !!).

In other words, Daniel, I don't understand what you're trying to get at. Sorry.

Broken Tee(No Subject)#970642/7/03; 14:53:04

davefingerDemand#970652/7/03; 14:55:35

Caradoc mentioned the bride's fathers in India and it made me think of two things. First is the place that I go to for gold and how their selection has been getting rather noticeably thinner. Increasing cost of inventory can explain some of it I suppose, but I really think it's the demand side picking up as well. Secondly, it's not just in India that gold is given at marriages, apparently Southeast Asians in general really like gold too. Last Saturday I finally married my wonderful Khmai fiancee, and was quite (pleasantly) surprised when her parents hung a three ounce 24k chain around my neck!! It has a nice side benefit too - love to see the gov try to confiscate jewelry! Check out Thai baht chains if that last factor strikes your interest.
Mr GreshamDollar Bill, Old Yeller: ORO (& FOA)#970662/7/03; 15:08:09

I'm enjoying an Oro-fest right now, thanks to your alert sharing! Hadn't realized how much I missed reading that driving, fact-packed style of economic model presentation.

Pessimistic as I might be, I do hope Oro will accept an invitation to return and share his essays here, without adding inordinately to the labor required of him. I hope his recovery will be swift and full.

We don't pay each other money for the hard work of thinking and writing given freely over the Internet. The only pay I can think of is our words of thanks for those who do.

The 'Net itself is an unexpected gift in this time of our lives. Proprietors of websites such as this have responded with another deep gift of their generosity. And posters come forth in kind to fill in this serendipitous library of knowledge and wisdom.

And I know it seems awkward at times to produce an expression of gratitude proportional to the wealth of thought given, as in FOA's case, for example. We might feel we then border on obsequy (a word?) and also raising one of us above the community of posters. To this, I would say it is just the awkwardness of the 'Net, where we cannot use smiles and a warm intonation of the voice to signal the appreciation we have for what the poster has given.

And fortunately, such posters seem to be self-motivated and even self-effacing enough to operate with the thanks given being quite sparse. Unfortunately, on one of the few occasions we found out what they cared strongly about, they clashed. And this in a climate of national trauma and worry over many things. It seems that particular time has passed, and it is time for those posters to return to the receptive communities that await them, now more than ever. That is my strong hope.

Black BladeShort-Term Energy Outlook – February 2003#970672/7/03; 15:22:56



World Oil Markets. World oil markets will likely remain tight through most of 2003, as petroleum inventories and global spare production capacity continue to dwindle amid blasts of cold weather and constrained output from Venezuela. OPEC efforts to increase output to make up for lower Venezuela output has reduced global spare production capacity to only 2 million barrels per day, leaving little room to make up for unexpected supply or demand surprises. Meanwhile, the average West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price increased by $3.50 to $33 per barrel from December to January (Figure 1). For the year 2003, WTI oil prices are expected to remain over $30 per barrel, even though Venezuelan output appears to be moving toward normal sooner than expected. Also, the uncertainty surrounding Iraq will likely render markets abnormally volatile, at least for the near-term.

Heating Fuels Update. January was about 9 percent colder than normal for the Northeast and 32 percent colder than January 2002 in that region. Ironically, the weather for the U.S. as a whole has been a bit warmer than normal in January, though there was a period of intense cold in the middle of the month. For the month of January, home heating fuel consumption was probably lighter than average, except in the Northeast. Spot prices for fuels surged, however, as crude oil and natural gas prices rose rapidly in the face of the Venezuelan oil export cutoff and sharply falling levels of domestic natural gas in storage. Some of these commodity price changes are still working their way to the consumer level. Normal temperatures through the remainder of the heating season would imply the following increases in household heating expenditures for the winter season (October-March) compared to the 2001-2002 winter: natural gas: 28 percent; heating oil: 52 percent; propane: 24 percent; electricity: 10 percent.

U.S. Natural Gas Markets. The spot price of natural gas at the Henry Hub rose above $6.00 per million btu on January 23 and February 4 of this year. Spot prices have been above the $5.00 per million btu level on most trading days this year, as underground storage has been significantly reduced compared to the levels of one year ago. Considering not only the reduced cushion of natural gas in storage but also currently high world oil prices, natural gas prices will likely remain relatively high through February and possibly March unless a prolonged warm spell occurs over the next several weeks.

International Oil Supply: Even if the situations in Venezuela and Iraq are resolved without further oil disruptions, the additional pressure on OECD commercial inventories since early December is likely to keep oil stocks near the lower end of the 5-year min/max range through most of 2003 (Figure 2). It could take several months for full Venezuelan production to be restored, and the OECD countries could see new 5-year lows in inventories by spring.

U. S. Energy Prices

Average crude oil prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for the month of January were more than $13 per barrel higher than they were in January 2002. The situations in Venezuela and Iraq along with the cold weather in the Northeast contributed to higher prices. These increased crude oil costs have been or will be passed on to the end user.

Motor Gasoline: Pump prices have risen recently in response to higher crude oil prices. The national average regular gasoline price in January was $1.46 per gallon, up 35 cents per gallon (31 percent) from January 2002. We expect prices to rise another 20 cents per gallon by late spring. As winter ends, the seasonal increase in gasoline demand is projected to pull retail gasoline prices up, although the rate of increase may be slowed if crude oil prices decline markedly. Spot prices for motor gasoline have climbed by over 15 cents per gallon in major U.S. markets since the beginning of the year. We can expect to see motor gasoline prices averaging more than $1.60 per gallon--peaking at about $1.66 or more in early spring--through the first half of the year even if the international supply situation improves. Refiner margins (the difference between the refiner price of gasoline and the refiner acquisition cost of crude oil), which were tepid this past summer, are tightening and are expected to continue to rebound over the next two years, as demand for gasoline rises and as the cost of producing gasoline increases

Natural Gas: The spot price of natural gas at the Henry Hub briefly closed above $6.00 per million btu during the third week of January as Artic weather covered much of the nation. Prices again topped $6 on February 4, 5, and 6 in response to another blast of cold weather. These prices have generally been well over $5.00 per million btu thus far this year, as cold weather during the last several months drained underground storage levels at a much faster rate than was previously anticipated. The winter thus far has been considerably colder than last year and colder than normal in the Northeast. As the cold weather continued through the first month of this year, downward pressure continued on natural gas storage. By the end of the January, working gas in storage was about 35 percent lower than at the end of January 2002 and 17 percent below the previous 5-year average. Considering not only the currently high world oil prices but also the low storage levels, natural gas prices are likely to remain relatively high through February and perhaps well into spring.

Black Blade: As I cast the chicken bones and devine a reading, I see a severe energy crisis in the making for the short and intermediate term. The chicken bones blur a little beyond that except for NatGas. As the report points out, energy costs are expected to grow in spite of over optimistic assumptions. Higher energy costs are a category killer for the US economy that uses an estimated 25% of the World energy consumption to drive manufacturing, transportation, and consumer comfort. I saw VP Dick Cheney a few moments ago give a speech on the Energy Policy. It was not encouraging and he asked that environmental restrictions be relaxed, access to public lands be granted for energy exploration and production, and looser controls on nuclear power plant construction. Now don't that beat all? It sounds as if the people in the know are worried. Today the prez sez he wants to stimulate the economy even though he touts the "good news" of an "economic recovery" and "rising employment" (see today's DMR). Of course he went on to say that he wants to stimulate "job creation" which suggests that he isn't overly confident of the Labor Department employment data released today. The time to lock in PM portfolio adjustment/accumulation at what will likely prove to be bargain prices is now or as soon as possible – at least the chicken bones indicate that the economy will be in dire distress in coming weeks/months and possibly years. Now I will finish my gourd of mate and read the tea leaves for additional indicators as chicken bones only go so far. Hey, if the Labor Department can put out entirely bogus employment data and Wall Street believes it, why can't I use chicken bones and tea leaves? I will buy a chicken tonight and read the entrails for supporting data. Now where did I put the newspaper – My horoscope ya know. :-)

The time to lock in PM portfolio adjustment/accumulation at what will likely prove to be bargain prices is now or as soon as possible – at least the chicken bones indicate that the economy will be in dire distress in coming weeks/months and possibly years.

Now off to the gym!

Black BladeIncreasing Interest In Gold?#970682/7/03; 16:13:37

I am getting out of here a bit late tonight so I will probably get a shorter than usual stint at the gym. I just had a call from an old friend/client in the energy patch and he asked me about gold. I told him my views and that some diversification would be a good idea. Maybe interest in growing all around.

Tonight the "Krudlow and Krusty the Klown" show (aka "Kudlow and Cramer") will discuss gold. I don't have any real expectations, but last night they had Bill Fleckenstein as a guest and the topic on gold was overall positive, so maybe....

- Black Blade

Anyway, off to the gym!

RocketmanThrow in the Towel???#970692/7/03; 16:15:06

What sort of talk is this? True believers are here for the long haul.

It may be today, it may be tomorrow, it may be a year from now, but any cursory view history and currencies shows that sooner or later all fiat ends the same - Worth less Gold!!

In terms of strategy about how to benefit from this knowledge, the overwhelming suggestions on this site are collect physical slowly and steadily over time.

Now a 2 or 3 % swing down in the value of gold if you hold physical is nothing to get upset over, but if you are leveraging well that is another story.

I like the physical and I always like to get more of it. I also like leveraging.

My experience with gold speculators is that they are a fickle bunch. They say they believe, but they sure scatter in a big hurry when the fighting gets fierce. That precipitous drop from $375 to $371 today is just another example. Strong hands survive, week ones don't! If you are emotionally caught up in the markets, watching the tickes day and night, if you are loosing sleep over your postion and you bark at your wife when she asked you how your day was, then you should probably lighten your load and loose a few contracts. Maybe talk to the host here and forget your broker all together.

Don't get in over your head. Don't look at the market with $$$ signs in your eyes planning on how you are going to spends your profits. Plan on a $20 drop ($2000 on 1 contract) and if you can stomach that then its time to turn and burn and make the gearing work against the Cabal and for you.

This week was a great week! $390.80 as a high - I love it and there is lots more to come.

YGMMr Gresham......#9707002/07/03; 17:05:29

ORO & F.O.A....HEAR, HEAR!!!!

snip> *and it is time for those posters to return to the receptive communities that await them, now more than ever. That is my strong hope*..
My hope also! And best r'gards to you and all who have given so much for such a long time here..

Back to my corner to read now.....YGM

Go Gold, Go GATA & Go Physical.

R PowellChicken entrail reading#9707102/07/03; 17:24:41

Black Blade

You've hit upon a subject in which I have some experience. For best results, I'll recommend a plump Rhode Island Red chicken with the reading done around midnight closest to the new moon. I do not know if this variety is available in your area. Good luck.

Thanks for the heads up on a possible gold discussion on dumb and dumber tonight. Kudlow keeps mentioning higher CRB and metals' prices as proof that the fed's reflation policy is working and he thus concludes that the economy and the stock markets will recover briskly. Then he smiles and blinks repeatedly. I can almost see him thinking, "Happy Days are here again".

Happy Weekend Again !!

R PowellThreats ?????????????????#9707202/07/03; 17:42:41

Kagalaska 97005

Threatening to KILL is called assault in this country.

I also believe freedom of speech was one of those rights you and yours were defending while in uniform.

You claim you can track down and kill!
You might not be the only one that has been trained to and who has killed in his time.
Bring it on!

Sorry if I have upset anyone. I do not take kindly to having my life threatened.

YGMHello Rich....#9707302/07/03; 18:28:05

Long time no talk.....

Yes no threats or personal war stories can be appreciated here..Lets hope in these times of uncertainty and tensions which invariably cause strong emotions, the common thread of our beliefs in Gold/Silver and all the issues thereof will prevail and folks will leave their politics at the drawbridge.....My, My, 2 posts from me in one day.....It has been so quiet over in my corner of the Castle for months.....:>)) R'gards YGM.
Daniel DruffClink!#9707402/07/03; 18:35:48

Concerning The Image of Silver, Being a Good Stewart, and "Musings"

The discussion of SUVs, Uninsulated Glass, Overuse of Nitrates, Wasted Fresh Water, and any other areas of abuse as represented by your "etc." are off topic subjects at USAGold but are certainly appropriate for discussion elsewhere. And as a matter of fact, I have no desire to "start a list of things that should be labelled and forbidden as being frivolous waste". Our primary concern is Gold and Silver.
Clink! (2/7/03; 14:49:45MT - msg#: 97063)
@ Daniel Druff
Well, heck, Daniel ! If you want to start a list of things that should be labelled and forbidden as being a frivolous waste, shouldn't we start with more serious things such as, say, SUVs, uninsulated glass, overuse of nitrates, wasted fresh water, etc. And of course, these items would be decided by the industries paying the most soft money to our representatives (who are probably the best example of frivolous waste in themselves !!).

In other words, Daniel, I don't understand what you're trying to get at. Sorry.

Silver has an image problem, pure and simple. Just as millions of our citizens were not aware of the detrimental effects of tobacco, 100's of millions of people have no idea of silver's beneficial health and scientific properties. To allow the consignment of so much as 1 ounce to the manufacturing of film for casual photography is not exercising restraint in the pursuit of profits. It is self destructive and dare I say, it is akin to the mindset of those who would not hesitate to commit crimes against humanity for the sake of profits.

Sharefin claims there's a 215,000,000 ounce annual supply deficit. Yet the price of silver is stagnant while the M3 - generally, currency and checking accounts - has been rising for years.

SECTOR attributes part of the problem to President Fox of Mexico...a timely supply surge would indeed break any market lacking widespread sponsorship. But the physical supply side is not where we should focus our attention...again, Sharefin has it as a 215 Million ounce is the demand-side which is benefiting from these paper tricks, which Mr. Butler has so abundantly explained. As a group, there can be but one bunch of wastrels with their lobby who are cupable...The Kodaks of the world.

By appearing to improve the deficit problem an organized and coordinated group could enlighten thousands of investors to the incredible benefits of silver...what we need is a SATA. Don't worry, there will not be a diminution of demand because Kodak & Friends suddenly decide to do the right's the advertisement of silver's benefits which should stir things up. Silvergolong's very generous 'musings' are noteworthy, from msg# 96856:

"It is a positive feedback loop: consumers of silver want the lowest price they can get and are eager to lock in low prices via forward contracts. Management at natural resource companies are more concerned with keeping their jobs than enhancing shareholder value, and are all too willing to hedge production--they get their big salaries either way. Banks and market makers want to keep the futures game alive because they make their living on the transaction fees. Who loses? The economy as a whole. In economics, this is called an "externality", and is more or less the same dilemma as the classic "tragedy of the commons.

"Anyhow, getting back to silver: the ironic thing is, silver prices could go to $50/ounce and we probably wouldn't notice. I made a post a week or two ago where I analyzed what would happen to the price of film if the price of silver ten-tupled. My SWAG was that film prices might double, and that was using some generous assumptions."

Clink!, it's a political fight we should be looking for...and that's the way the game is played these days, unfortunately.

You got game?

Thank you

21mabrycramer#9707502/07/03; 18:59:34

Listening to cramer archive show,he is talking about gold right now I will give update in a bit.
ElGordo@Daniel Druff#9707602/07/03; 19:15:59

Thank you for your kind remarks. I've been busy for a couple weeks on my research and man I exhausted! Phew.. Trying to get info
out of companies on fuel cell developments is like trying to
get blood out of a rock. Funny you should mention E-mailing
your congressman, I just did that 2 minutes ago! I have sent
complete info with names and references to the Silver Institute.

I was going to post some info tomorrow but I will post some now.
I'll repost it on the weekend as many may read the site at
that time.

The news I was waiting for was a confirmation of what I was
researching and I just got it. The news is very good for silver.

I have been in contact with some CEOs and I cannot post all the
references I have as I don't want them to be flooded with
weird E-mails. So this is edited info.
There are many types of fuel cell designs, but they can be put
into 3 general categories- High Temp, Med Temp and Low Temp.

Low Temp cells are "quick start" cells and are best suited for
mobile applications because they don't need a lot of time to warm up. They can start quickly, hence "quick start". This is what is needed for automobiles for instance.

There are 2 types of Low Temp cells- PEM and AFC. PEM cells as far
as I know, presently HAVE to use Pt. AFC cells, or Alkaline Cells do not have to use only Pt, they can also use Ag, Rare Earth Oxides or Carbon. Testing seems to indicate that Rare Earth and Carbon might have problems involving prolonged use at high current density. Silver works great and saves a lot of the Pt costs.

Now remember, this is only with AFC cells but AFC cells seem to be really, the best fuel cell design as far as I can tell. From what I have read, I like the possibilities for AFC cells the most. Especially for autos.

With a Pt stack its about $1000 per Kw in R&D. Using Ag you can cut that cost by more than half and AFC cells are the lowest cost to make and perform very well. Further improvements in design will bring AFC costs down to about $200 per Kw, the lowest costs for fuel cells by far!

sector@ silvercollector The $630 Number#9707702/07/03; 19:17:44

It's the end-of-year PM Fix based upon... unconventional set of premises [which you should not take as financial advice]:

(1) The first order force acting on gold is the sale [Including daughter derivatives] of official central bank gold

(2) Half the Western central bank gold been lost in the 1990s gold war through title transfers as a result of central bank forward sales and swaps [Which entail title transfers].

(3) The G-10 nations have been forced to retreat by selling less gold.

(4) A plan has been implemented to maintain an orderly retreat...a rise in the gold price to a level that the central banks [Of the West] can cease their selling and retain what remains of their bullion.

That hypothetical G-10 retreat plan seems to have begun on Dec 4th 2002.
Since then the PM Fix has followed a linear path with each day's price being very close to a straight line upwards. The data fidelity to that straight line is called the R^2 regression value. A value of 1.0 means that ALL the points fell on the up moving line. An R^2 value of .90 means that the points are clustered very close to the line with almost no "Way out " prices.

The R^ 2 regression value of the PM Fix since December 4, 2002 is .9361
This means that it is for practical purposes a straight line and randomly traded markets do not do this.

By extending the regression line, one gains some degree of predictive power, but ONLY if the R^2 values are high. Otherwise there is too much "Slop" in the prediction and it becomes just another wild guess among the masses of wild guesses.

The December 31, 2003 regression intercept number for the PM Fix is $630 per ounce while the corresponding major Currency Dollar Index value is 65. The MCDI is also falling since Dec 4th but at an R^2 value over .95.

There are many other important implications to the PM Fix's straight line appearance. The powers holding this ramp want gold to go up and it is going up. The shares will catch up. The war is noise. The "Pull-back" is hot air.

It's the PM Fix ramp that counts if this observation is correct. Watch the dollar on Monday and watch the PM Fix. 10AM Eastern time. The forecast is $377.44 with a ±$2.58 error tolerance.
@Rich Powell -- Fortunatly I missed the threats thrown at you by what's his name from way up where?

In any event, this forum ought not tolerate for an instant personal threats or abuse of any kind. The intellectual property displayed for free here is second to none and we need to defend it vigorously. I'm glad you let the mutated mope have it.

Mr GreshamWhat to say?#9707802/07/03; 19:24:54

If one were able to say, "Sorry gang, had a couple too many, some frustrations came out, won't happen again. Respects all around." Enough for me...
ElGordoMGM movie coming out soon featuring the "Silver Volt"#9707902/07/03; 19:40:27

The movie "Agent Cody Banks" was shot in Van last year. It features Malcolm in the Middle star Frankie Muniz, and is an MGM production.

Its a James Bond type of movie featuring James Bond type of gear.
Its a movie for young people especially. Frankie plays a very young CIA recruit.

In the movie he drives a car called the "Silver Volt".

This vehicle will be for sale soon with an AFC combined with a
lead-cobalt battery design and will sell for around $30,000.
Silver in the battery is used in the positive grids to extend lift.


This is an old article from 1999 where the first vehicles were tested as London taxi's using Alkaline cells using silver. All the problems they discussed have since been solved with new designs.


This is the company that makes the "Silver Volt" car.
This car uses an Alkaline fuel cell with Pt for now but the
Pt will be replaced with new materials. They claim they
will use a non-noble metal but a scientist I was talking to
says silver works the best in the catalyst. Non-noble material
may be cheaper but is not as durable under high current
density as silver.

I'm not sure about what they are saying as they don't make
the cells I understand. They do make the batteries.
So we shall see. They do use silver in the battery design.Silver in the battery is used in the positive grids to extend lift.

Links for "Agent Cody Banks" movie

ElGordoReasons why alkaline fuel cells might be the best cells#9708002/07/03; 19:52:20

(1) Low Stack Cost Selling Price USD 500/KW Now
200/KW in 5 Years

(2) Long Life if used with pure fuel

(3) Liquid Electrolyte - Can remove heat at High Power

(4) Operates from -40 DegC to + 90 DegC

(5) High Efficiency - Minimum Hydrogen Consumption

55% Full Load

70% 1/4 Load

(6) Suitable for use in Marine Environments and Salt Air

(7) Design in 2 Years will be suitable for high dynamics
existing design is for stationary applications

(8) CO2 easily removed from Air Supply with Membrane Filter

(9) Longest Experience of any Fuel Cell Technology

(10) Latest Chemistry is non platinum and gives up to 1 Amp per
sq cm plate current density! It uses Silver and various types
of Rare Earth Oxides

Daniel DruffElGordo#9708102/07/03; 20:25:36

Kindred Spirits, A Politic Strategy, and Politics

You've been a busy boy...good job, Sir.

Re Silver...I'm sure you will understand my occassional hyperbole to be nothing more complicated than the rantings of a true believer. The goal is to finish the race without losing ones sense of humor...this really is a funny world in which we live.

The Establishment-The Official Sector-TPTB are well aware of the old axiom: The squeeky wheel gets the grease. Whether we like it or not, the grease is in DC. That means politics. A letter writing campaign with a little Drudge thrown in, would sure stir things up, imho. Your e-mail idea is spot-on but there's nothing like physical er..., hard copy. Of course, we need not only a 'good story' but a deserving whipping-boy. And who deserves it more than Eastman Kodak?

Don't worry, The Augusta types are practical businessmen. They may never invite you to play golf but they'll play ball in the end. They have to, the fundamentals are against them.

I'm looking forward to anything you come up with concerning fuel long as silver is involved. The medical angle is especially compelling. Especially when you figure all the health freaks will simply have to have a 10 ouncer, at least! Believe it or not, some of those dear souls are greedy and just might go on a silver buying spree.

Thank you

R PowellThanks#9708202/07/03; 20:26:43

YGM and Sector, thank you. YGM, you have been absent too long. I hope you are fairing well.

Mr. Gresham, you are indeed a kind and wise soul. I agree entirely. Let us return to the business at hand.
Thanks and happy weekend

Aristotleless than 2¢#9708302/07/03; 20:39:02

I dunno about you guys, but to me, an elaborate outlay of tech specs on fuel cells and the relative merits of disposable cameras seem pretty far afield from the center table of this great Golden hall. Think ya'll can rein it in a little? Personally, I'd rather read every word than scroll, but tonight you're leaving me little choice...

Best advice on the net coming up right here in THREE... TWO... ONE...

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

cyberbat@Rocketman#9708402/07/03; 20:43:04

You're right Rocketman. What has got me disturbed so bad is my paper investments (401K and personal IRA's) I'm trying to crawl out of that paper avalanche and in to a money market with at least some profit. Problem is the xau and hui is getting slaughtered so I'm having to take the dive and wait it out. It is frustrating!!
As far as my physicals are concerned; everyone I ever bought both gold and silver is still in my possesion. I would feel naked and insecure without them. I'm just wanting a decent chance to flee the paper market.

Daniel DruffOne of the guys#9708502/07/03; 21:13:26

We request that all new posters take the time to review our additional Guidelines for the Respectful Poster before posting. Your adherence to these Guidelines will help maintain a civil and cordial atmosphere for the benefit of the posting group

My my, "Think ya'll can rein it in a little? Personally, I'd rather read every word than scroll, but tonight you're leaving me little choice."

Am I wrong in assuming that USAGold deals in Silver? If I'm not mistaken, silver prizes were recently assigned to some very deserving posters. But please, do correct me if I'm wrong.

"I dunno about you guys, but to me, an elaborate outlay of tech specs on fuel cells and the relative merits of disposable cameras seem pretty far afield from the center table of this great Golden hall."

I am certain that the discussion at the "center table of this great Golden hall" does not encourage provocative behavior. Naughty guy.

Thank you

Black BladeMarket Wrap Up – Hartman#9708602/07/03; 21:48:35


When Currencies Fail

This week when gold reached $389 per ounce, it was primarily Asian investors that pushed the price higher on the TOCOM exchange. Officials here in the U.S. don't want investors to catch on to the golden bull because it competes directly with the dollar. Since gold broke out from its multi-year base at $325, it has gone virtually straight up for two months. Now that the gold market is heating up, it's time for our policy makers to knock it back down, or at least try to contain the rise. The dollar players have been losing to gold lately, so they decided to change the rules right in the middle of the game.

According to a Reuters article yesterday, "The New York Mercantile Exchange will raise the amount of collateral required to trade gold futures contracts at its COMEX Division as of the close of business Thursday, February 6th. Margins on COMEX gold futures will be increased to $1,500 from $1,000 for members, member firms, and hedgers; and to $2,025 from $1,350 for speculative customers." The authorities would like to take some of the excitement out of the gold arena by making it more expensive to do business. They can try, but Mother Nature is also flexing her muscle! Continuous interventions require more interventions, which leads to further imbalances and the need for even more re-balancing, which causes more problems and then needs another fix, and on, and on, and on!

Now go back a few years to when Alan Greenspan was warning investors of irrational exuberance during the stock mania of the late nineties. If he really believed that the markets were too frothy and needed some cooling down from speculation, why didn't he raise the margin requirements for stock purchases just like the COMEX has done for gold futures contracts; Doesn't make much sense does it?

Black Blade: The article also addresses some energy issues such as refiners not building inventories unless they can get $2/gallon gasoline. I might add that energy companies (and those that I communicate with) say they want sustained NatGas prices north of $6 MMbtu and preferably $8 before they are willing to seriously consider increasing rig counts. A similar situation exists in the precious metals (and base metals) mining industry. Producers are not willing to increase exploration efforts unless they get a sustained period of higher prices. In the gold side I keep hearing that number is a minimum of $380/oz. and preferably much higher - $420/oz often comes up. I don't get a solid value for silver or copper, but a higher value is certainly desired. I hear that Apex Silver continues to expand and delineate their San Cristobol deposit in Bolivia but even though they could make a profit at current prices, they are content to sit on the sidelines until silver prices rise and remain solidly higher. It appears that producers of minerals and petroleum are in a sense "on strike" and are willing to "let the market fail" until they can a fair price. They are simply sick and tired of Wall Street's shenanigans and price "management" schemes and so are perfectly willing to operate at minimum levels to keep operations going until either the system breaks down or the "managers" give in. In the meantime we can expect energy prices and metals prices to rise over time putting pressure on the economy. It's funny that I keep hearing this and yet it is not a "conspiracy of collusion" but rather belt tightening for the sake of survival by the entire natural resources sector. In energy it is also a function of tight financing due to numerous credit downgrades and enormous debt (not to mention low prices offered by marketers and pipeline owners). It should get very "interesting" in the next few months.

Black BladeWar clouds obscure fiscal crisis#9708702/07/03; 22:22:12

Some strategists see Iraq talk as smokescreen


SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Middle East war talk is distracting many investors from accepting the reality of an overpriced American stock market and flagging U.S. dollar. "For weeks, we had been hearing that the dollar's bleak performance is because of fear of war in Iraq," notes Donald G. Coxe, a U.S. portfolio strategist with Nesbitt Burns in Chicago. "For weeks, we had been hearing that the run-up in gold prices is because of fear of war in Iraq." So what happens? The dollar surges and gold loses $18 an ounce after Colin Powell makes a strong case for almost immediate action against Iraq, with backing from allies that include the British. "War is nearer than ever," says the strategist, one of several who see Iraq as just a smokescreen for a deflating American economy and depressed interest rates. Foreign investors have been fleeing the dollar, and American assets. With the dollar having lost about 18 percent of its value against the euro since early 2002, and about 10 percent against the yen, nations with healthy balance sheets are looking attractive.

James Turk, the newsletter writer and gold researcher whose dollar and bullion forecasts have been on the mark for more than a year, says war, to have a lasting influence on the value of a financial market, must have a monetary consequence. Turk sees the dollar continuing its swoon, and gold's price rising to $430 or so an ounce by month's end from its current $370. For people like Turk, who edits Freemarket Gold and Money Report, "War affects gold only if the war affects the money of the warring nation." Turk sees the price of gold benefiting from the collapse of a dollar that had, until early last year, been boosting the worth of American assets for almost 20 years. "When gold jumped on Tuesday (to just short of $390), the market started to get a little frothy," Turk tells me. "So there's nothing like a little correction to shake out some weak-hands." I think we can count on a higher gold price in coming days and weeks as investors across the globe keep pulling the plug on their U.S. holdings.

Black Blade: I don't know about the timing of the rise in the gold price, but the simple point is that there is little if any real "war premium" involved. Sure, after the invasion starts gold may decline temporarily and the primates will point and shout that it is just like the last war with Iraq in 1991. But wait a minute! I hate to say something so stupid but here goes – "it's different this time". Why is it different this time? In 1991 the US economy was strong and even growing, and the dollar was fairly stable. Now the economy is in a shambles, debt (consumer, corporate, and government) is rising to all time record levels, and the US dollar is weak and getting weaker. Also, gold is not burdened by runaway CB sales and leasing, and producers are no longer selling forward – in fact most are aggressively reducing their hedgebooks. The low interest rates have killed the "gold carry trade". Gold production is declining as ore deposits are mined out and after years of high-grading many mines are left only with costly marginal ore. Gold exploration has essentially been put on hold as miners have cut costs. Even if an aggressive exploration frenzy were to begin most experienced explorationists have retired or pursued other careers never to return. Any new deposits will have to be studied, delineated, and permitted after lengthy reviews and years of environmental impact studies, and likely litigation delays. Then the few projects that prove to be viable will need years of construction and development before mining can actually begin and even then in most cases it will be several years before the first dore is poured. Add to the mix demand outstripping available supply of physical metal with fewer gold lenders and the long term price explosion appears inevitable. Already Asian investors are beginning to rush to bullion retailers. In Japan the economy is a basket case on the verge of total collapse and the newly liberalized gold market in China can't even keep enough gold in stock to satiate demand. Some Asian central banks and the Russian central bank are accumulating gold reserves. And finally, western consumers and investors are just beginning to take a shine to gold. In short – "it really is different this time".

The Invisible HandFrench PM talks against Iraq War and confirms winning the Indian airlines contract #9708802/07/03; 23:19:46

Fri Feb 7, 9:58 AM ET

Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin said Iraq's weapons pose a greater threat to the world today than they did during the 1991 Persian Gulf War (news - web sites) and must be destroyed. But he reiterated France's view that U.N. weapons inspections must be given more time to work.

Raffarin arrived in the Indian technology hub of Bangalore on Thursday to attend an air show, where he announced that Airbus has won a $2.1 billion deal to sell 43 planes to India's domestic carrier, Indian Airlines

I still have no information on the financial aspect of the deal. But with the orange alert having been raised for next week and Bush's warmongering having reached the extreme level, I wonder why France continues to oppose war, if not because of its commercial and MONETARY INTERESTS.

Black BladeFrom The Mailbag#9708902/07/03; 23:30:20

This comes via the DailyReckoning:

The following email has made its way around the Internet. Last seen, and picked up, from Richard Russell's site, it explains America's structural economic problem:

"Joe Smith started the day early, having set his alarm clock (made in Japan) for 6 AM. While his coffeepot (made in China) was perking, he shaved with his electric razor (made in Hong Kong). He put on a dress shirt (made in Sri Lanka), designer jeans (made in Singapore) and tennis shoes (made in Korea). After cooking his breakfast in his new electric skillet (made in India) he sat down with his calculator (made in Mexico) to see how much he could spend today.

After setting his watch (made in Taiwan) to the radio (made in India) he got in his car (made in Germany) and continued his search for a well-paying American job. At the end of yet another discouraging and fruitless day, Joe decided to relax for a while. He put on his sandals (made in Brazil), poured himself a glass of wine (made in France), turned on his TV (made in Indonesia), and wondered why he couldn't find a well-paying job in.....AMERICA.....

Black Blade: This is timely given today's employment report from the Labor Department. The bogus employment data suggests that over 143,000 Americans found work as bartenders, burger flippers, and dishwashers. I wonder if this is where all those $100,000/year brokers and bankers ended up. I saw an interview on CNBC today with a laid off 30 something MBA in the SF Bay Area. He was planning to pack up and move in with his parents in Phoenix after a fruitless search for employment. Obviously he did not hear that there were jobs at McDonalds. It seems according to the Government we can all be serving each other adult beverages, happy meals, or washing each others dirty dishes before long. "Interesting" thought.

Simply Me@ Topaz#9709002/07/03; 23:42:16

Nice to hear from you, too! How's the Missus, the kids and the dog?

Proud granny's darlin' grandaughter is about 16 months old now...and gets silver and/or gold for every holiday gift. Gotta start 'em young to teach them what REAL wealth is.

When I was a kid, I got a $10 bill in a birthday card and learned that THAT was money. Paper money gets ingrained in most folks' perceptions from an early age. It's a hard lesson to unlearn. I want my granddaughter to get $20 in a birthday card and think, "Wow, I can buy something cool for $10 and add $10 in silver or gold to my savings!"

Hard to carry on a conversation in time zones on opposite sides of the world, eh?
Simply Granny

CytekSoon this will become a reality for more and more companys#9709102/07/03; 23:43:34

Bethlehem Steel to End Retiree Benefits
Friday February 7, 6:45 pm ET
By Nichola Groom

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Bankrupt Bethlehem Steel Corp. (OTC BB:BHMSQ.OB - News), which has agreed to be bought by International Steel Group, said on Friday it wants to terminate health and life insurance benefits for "substantially" all of its retired workers and their dependents.

The Bethlehem, Pennsylvania steelmaker said it made a proposal, in a letter dated Feb. 6, to end the benefits on March 31 for the 95,000 people "because we cannot pay the obligations ... now or in the future." Bankruptcy court approval is needed to eliminate the benefits.

Friday's announcement nearly doubles the number of people who have lost such benefits as a result of the liquidation of bankrupt steel companies, according to a spokesman for the United Steelworkers of America union.

Cytek - the question i have is, how are these 95,000 people going to live without their pensions and just their meager social securiy. Move in with the kids, who by the way are in debt to their ears. Wait till this stuff starts hitting the bigger companys, like the fords and GM's who are billions in the rears managing their pensions. Blackblade has summed it up in one word " Grim ".

WaveriderGolden Bull Buy Signals#9709202/07/03; 23:51:34

"With investor anxiety running high as we sadly approach the devastation of war, it is an important time to discuss the near-term technical picture for the Ancient Metal of Kings itself as well as its most popular highly-leveraged proxies, the unhedged gold stocks."

Waverider: An interesting read (with charts) from Adam Hamilton on technical analysis and Gold.

AristotleDaniel Druff, thanks for setting me straight...#970932/8/03; 00:28:24

After all, I am kinda new here.

Gold. blah blah blah --- Advocate of Au

Simply Me@Black Blade#970942/8/03; 00:29:57

The long-term answer to the unemployment problem is in the educational system. It has to quit turning out factory workers and start turning out professionals...brokers, engineers, biologists, research chemists, accountants, clerks, secretaries, entrepeneurs, and space scientists. Like pre-industrial revolution England, we can become the world's shop keepers, scientists and explorers.

If Joe Smith isn't a scientist, engineer or technician of any kind, and can't find a professional who needs to hire a helper, he needs to find something to buy and sell. Raise some of that easy cash the Fed's throwing around and contact one of those factories in Hong Kong about a super-nifty new thing-a-ma-jig that he can sell door-to-door, at flea markets, out to the trunk of his car, or on 'that popular online auction site. Maybe Joe himself could even make something to sell, wicker furniture, custom wood carvings, candles, incense, artistic wall decor....something! Or he could study a few books about jewelry and collectibles, search the garage sales in the area for treasures to sell to antique dealers.

Joe's problem is that he has no imagination. He was trained to be a factory worker.

Our current educational system teaches kids that if they show up before the bell rings, do as they're told and behave themselves every day, they'll get the diploma. Then all they have to do is find an employer who requires the same and pick up their paycheck each week.

I'll bet Joe Smith doesn't own any gold, either. Schools aren't teaching much of anything of REAL value these days.

Sorry for the tirade. I was educated to be a teacher, from a family of teachers, but refused that line of work. Many teachers know what's wrong but they can't change it because the system is bureaucracy bound. Rock the boat and you're out. It's a sore subject with me.

Black BladeCold cuts deep into U.S. natural gas supply#970952/8/03; 00:37:47


Natural gas prices have climbed steadily since September as an unexpectedly brutal start to the 2002-2003 heating season devoured a record high surplus built up during last year's unusually mild winter, opening up a gaping deficit. This spells bad news for consumers, who will have to pay more to heat and cool their homes this year. "If stocks end (the winter) near 700 billion cubic feet, we're in the hole big time," said Marshall Adkins, managing director of energy research at Raymond James in Houston. "It's going to be very difficult to fill storage in time for the next heating season," he added. Utilities and heavy industries typically build inventories from April through October to meet peak winter heating demand.

"We had to rely on (pulling gas out of) storage more this year because productive capacity has been declining. Even with these high prices, drilling activity has not come up dramatically," said Kevin Petak, director at consultants Energy and Environmental Analysis in Virginia. Despite these high prices, cash-strapped energy companies have been slow to spend more to drill for gas, focusing instead on propping up their balance sheets to improve credit ratings. Meanwhile, storage operators will have to struggle to rebuild depleted stocks at the same time power producers will be straining to meet summer air conditioning demand. In addition, analysts do not expect much help from Canada in closing the supply gap, which typically exports enough gas to the U.S. to meet 15 percent of total demand. Canada is also suffering a downturn in drilling, and most analysts expect exports to stay flat or slip slightly in 2003. Analysts said greater reliance on gas in new homes and for commercial heating has helped to whittle down stocks. "We're talking about an extremely tight gas market this year, with prices (at Henry Hub) sustained above $5, perhaps for a couple of years," said Raymond James' Adkins, who expects production to slip another 3 percent this year. In addition, industry, still struggling with a slow-growth economy, will also be hit hard, with some firms likely to slow output or close plants because of high energy costs. Manufacturing makes up about 40 percent of the gas market.

Black Blade: In short – absolutely no economic recovery this year. This new energy crisis will short circuit what is left in the economy with much higher energy costs. Every postwar economic recession has been preceded by an energy crisis and yet here we are once again.

WaveriderTrade: Malaysia goes for gold #970962/8/03; 00:45:30

"Come mid-year, Malaysia is to put into place what is perhaps the first of its kind in the world, the dinar-gold proposal for bilateral and multilateral trade among Islamic countries. The plan, which was announced last March by Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, aims to prevent another currency crisis of the scale seen in Asia in 1997-98.

Waverider: I would be interested in a critical analysis of this proposal if anyone is interested...Aristotle (being fairly new here and all?) :)

ElGordo@Aristotle#970972/8/03; 01:25:06

One of the reasons Platinum shot up to $700 oz is because
of the speculation concerning its use in fuel cells. Sorry you
had to suffer scrolling through my post. I've had to scroll
through a couple of your posts as well. So we're even.

CaradocBank failure in California#970982/8/03; 02:18:14

As of midnight Pacific time, Los Angeles radio station says the feds have closed the doors of Southern Pacific bank in Torrance, California, and arranged for takeover by Beale bank of Plano, Texas. News story went on to address FDIC insurance of deposits up to $100,000, cited the total that was beyond the $100,000 limit, and quoted feds that depositors "might" be able to recoup some of that money through routes other than FDIC.

Torrance is a bedroom community slightly west and 190 blocks south of Los Angeles, with Palos Verdes peninsula to the south and South Bay communities like Hermosa Beach and Manhattan Beach to the north.

Snip from Google: ... Company Imperial Credit Industries, Inc., is the parent company of Southern Pacific Bank, a FDIC insured industrial bank headquartered in Torrance, California. ...

Another Google-found link showed text about offering the highest rates for FDIC insured deposits. When clicked, however, that link now leads to the following...


On February 7, 2003, Southern Pacific Bank of Torrance, California was closed by California Division of Financial Institutions and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named Receiver. No advance notice is given to the public when a financial institution is closed.

The FDIC has assembled useful information regarding your relationship with this institution. Please select the link below to read more about this event:


I really liked the part about "No advance notice is given to the public...." Following the FDIC link leads to more than you might care to read about the mechanics of the process and ends with this:

Priority of Claims In accordance with Federal law, allowed claims will be paid, after administrative expenses, in the following order of priority:
General Unsecured Creditors
Subordinated Debt

Interesting that depositors look like they're first in line but come after the bureaucrats take care of their "administrative expenses."

Readers of this forum already know that residents of Torrance who are invested in gold -- the wealth of the ages -- don't have to worry about things like this. But here's a piece of information worth chewing on: I left the radio on so that I could catch the specifics on the total of deposits that exceeded the $100,000 limit for FDIC insurance. Strangely, on a slow news night with secondary stories being repeated every half hour, the new story that led the midnight news was dropped from the 12:30 and 1:00 newscasts. Almost enough to make you suspect somebody suggested they drop the story. No point in getting people upset, you know.

LeighCaradoc#970992/8/03; 03:26:28

Chilling story! Please keep us informed of the developments, including depositors' reactions to the news!
KagalaskaSorry about talk of silver RE Aristotel#97083 D.Druff#97085#971002/8/03; 03:27:23

I know that this is a GOLD forum provided,funded and hosted by the good folks at CPM(call them for any PM needs). I can't help thinking that some gold bugs are looking at silver(almost80:1)as a better vehichle for potential profitable return. The obvious gold manipulation versus the questionable returns makes one almost(well more than almost)look to a physical SILVER aquisition. Silver (with all due respect to the forum hosts) seems to fill the bill and then some. Short supply, myriad of uses, historic record of low cost of purchase,ect..The whole picture period, is,I am sure, making some gold bulls ask why they are sitting on an asset that is being shown to be a tool of TPTB(silver is too, just that the upside potential is greater due to a smaller supply). I take a simpletons(cause I am a simpleton) veiw of all things, that being all things being equal, normaly your first impression is correct. That being the case Silver is the supreme long term investment due to fundementals. Period.I can not talk statistics,charts'sentimentent,or film. just gut. Sorry Gut has carried me to many amazing career achievments and I am sure it will prove it self this time for me as well in the long run. Semper-FI Kagalaska
BoxmanCaradoc msg#: 97098--Article on Bank failure#971012/8/03; 07:23:05

Caradoc, this is all I could find on the bank failure, hope it helps.


"We cannot pay the obligations for retiree health and life insurance now or in the future," Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Robert S. Miller said in a written statement. "Due to our financial situation and our impending sale of substantially all of our assets to International Steel Group, we must seek the court's approval to terminate these benefits. We find this decision extremely difficult, but unavoidable, and sincerely regret that circumstances have led us to this decision."

misetichBritain Admits That Much of Its Report on Iraq Came From Magazines#971022/8/03; 07:31:42


LONDON, Feb. 7 — The British government admitted today that large sections of its most recent report on Iraq, praised by Secretary of State Colin L. Powell as "a fine paper" in his speech to the United Nations on Wednesday, had been lifted from magazines and academic journals.

But while acknowledging that the 19-page report was indeed a "pull-together of a variety of sources," a spokesman for Prime Minister Tony Blair defended it as "solid" and "accurate."
But critics of the government said that not only did the document appear to have been largely cut and pasted together, but also that the articles it relied on were based on information that is, by now, obsolete.

For instance, the second section of the three-part report, which is described on the Downing Street Web site as providing "up-to-date details of Iraq's network of intelligence and security," was drawn in large part from "Iraq's Security and Intelligence Network: a Guide," an article about the activities of Iraqi intelligence in Kuwait in 1990 and 1991, which appeared in the Middle East Review of International Affairs last September. Its author was Ibrahim al-Marashi, a postgraduate student at the Monterey Institute of International Studies in California.

Disgraceful! to say the least - Hundreds of thousands people may be killed in the next few months -
TRUST ! it is all about trust - Lies and deceit - it is the real reason why in the grand scheme of things the "house of horrors" will be held accountable for all their shananigans including the manipulation (they call it "management") of financial markets and instruments

Got gold?

turkey hunterBank failure in California#971032/8/03; 07:58:20

Here is the article about the bank failure.
turkey hunterAnother bank failure#971042/8/03; 08:06:00

Did a google news search (bank closure) and it seems like there are several banks in trouble.
misetichUS Budget Deficit - The untold details of the Iraq invasion#971052/8/03; 08:07:04


Egypt has asked the United States for an additional aid package to defray anticipated costs of a possible war with Iraq
The Bush administration is still considering an Israeli appeal for $2 billion in new military assistance along with $10 billion in loan guarantees. Turkey has also requested as much as $14 billion in various forms of assistance, and Jordan is receiving more than a dozen new F-16 fighter planes.
A free-trade agreement between Jordan and the United States recently went into effect, and early talks have started on a similar agreement with Morocco. "The Egyptians have said, 'If you can do it with Jordan, why not us?' "

Behind the scenes wheeling and dealing, arm-twisting, bribery, continues as "the hidden agenda" keeps on bein pushed forward
The loss of human life is meaningless - as the end justifies the means -

The US budget deficit projections exclude the cost of the Iraqui invasion ( obviously they contend in the long run it will be cost neutral as "they manage the Iraqui oil fields in trust for the Iraqui people for a few years"

Russia, Germany, France financial interests in Iraq are heavy and they will not sit idly by even in the event of "successful conquering" of the Iraq

The chess game continues - and GOLD - rises to its rightful throne as the unsurpussed trusted "real money" in times of crisis and caos

Got gold?


misetichWar Worries Compound Energy Woes #9710602/08/03; 08:15:43


The wait for war in Iraq has been expensive for the world's economies.

Crude oil prices climbed to nearly $35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday, up from around $20 a year ago. The prime mover: uncertainty over what will happen to oil supplies if and when the Bush administration launches a campaign to oust Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

"They expect prices to move higher, and prices do -- it's a self-fulfilling prophecy," he said.

Prices of other key energy products have marched up in step with oil. Regular gasoline averaged $1.53 a gallon around the country last week, compared with $1.12 this time last year, helping to boost the profits of the major oil companies. Natural gas prices are near $6 per 1,000 cubic feet, pushing up heating costs for households and production expenses for manufacturers.

Ray Ratheal, who directs energy purchases for Eastman Chemical Co. in Kingsport, Tenn., must cope with gas prices that are triple the level of a year ago. "That's a tremendous impact on our cost of manufacturing," he said. "It's very hard to pass on price increases, particularly in this economy."

Consumers are spending nearly $100 million more a day on energy compared with a year ago, when energy prices were deflated by recession. "One of the main reasons why the economy is struggling is higher energy prices," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at "It is already having a very significant effect."
But with their stock prices at the lowest levels in a half-dozen years, oil companies are not about to spend freely on new exploration and facilities, analysts said.

"The system is stretched," Sieminski said.

Looming over the entire energy sector is a shortage of funds for expansion. Capital investment in U.S. oil and gas drilling totaled $35 billion in the fourth quarter of 2001. "At the end of last year, it was back to $26 billion and falling fast," Zandi said. A key issue is uncertainty -- producers have no idea where natural gas prices will settle.
William F. Hederman Jr., head of market investigations for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, noted Wednesday that U.S. energy companies -- primarily utilities -- must repay $100 billion in short- and long-term debt in the coming year. Some will be forced into bankruptcy, analysts warn.

"The energy markets are in severe financial distress," Hederman said. "There's a loss of confidence in the markets that is feeding on itself."

Debt the devils is in the details - "US energy companies - primarily utilities -- mus repay $100 billion in short and long-term debt in the coming year"

Has TELECOM DEBT vanished?

Got gold?

misetichDebt-Heavy Consumers Face Tough 2003 #9710702/08/03; 08:24:50


The outlook for consumers is not good. They face significant challenges," said Mike Dean, senior director at Fitch Ratings, on Thursday.

Late loan payments and defaults have been climbing. Personal bankruptcy filings are expected to surpass last year's record.

"Our outlook (for consumer credit) is absolutely bleak," said Jeff Salmon, head of asset-backed securities research at Barclays Capital.

Real estate wealth from rising home prices and cash from mortgage refinancings have cushioned consumers from a generally weak job market and a protracted stock slump. Analysts warned, however, that these positive factors will likely fade by the end of the year.

With interest rates at their lowest in 40 years, some consumers have consolidated their loans at lower rates, shaving interest payments.

But many consumers, enticed by the rock-bottom rates, have taken on more debt instead.
"Today's consumer debt burden is higher than any point. This is troubling," said Michael Kanef, managing director at Moody's Investors Service.

Americans are clearly struggling to make their debt obligations, particularly monthly credit card bills.

In December, credit card companies wrote off 7.5 percent of credit card receivables that they bundled into asset-backed bonds, said Amy Martin, director at Standard & Poor's. That charge-off level is the second highest ever tracked by S&P.

There's that word again - DEBT- this time at the consumer level

How can this "debt" evaporate? Currency devaluation? Hyperinflation? Staglation? Take your pick and get some gold - the physical kind!

Got gold?

a nation of oneunpopular realities#9710802/08/03; 08:48:49

Several people have been credited with saying that no democracy endures for long, once the citizens discover that they can issue themselves payments from the public treasury. De Toqueville wrote it first perhaps. It should be obvious. Government programs such as Medicare, Welfare, The World Police, Foreign Aid, Government Supported Insurance Programs, including FDIC and others, cannot go on indefinitely without producing adverse consequences for the citizens overall. Eventually such programs cease because they tend to impoverish the people generally. Fifty years is not enough to prove this. It will take more decades yet. Politicians don't care about such points, in part because their primary concern is to do whatever gets them elected. Another reason is they lack the mental ability. Because, who did you think it was that runs for public office? Geniuses? People who deeply understand matters of the public interest? No. They are just people willing to do whatever it takes to get themselves elected. And what does it take? Well, look around you. They spend your money in wild ways for no other reason than if they don't, they won't be able to stay in office. It's not just their fault. It's everyone's. All of these realities have been understood for a very long time.

The problem about schools that is causing such a noticeable decline in the quality of our people's knowledge, however, is not caused by bureaucrats but is merely carried out by them. They have no choice but to do so. The policy was set by lawmakers, initially by the courts, which, foolishly, endowed with the power of Law a number of childish attitudes whose descriptions are difficult to state accurately in ways that are 'politically correct', political correctness being another idiocy whose purpose fits in with all of this. This although it can only be increasingly obvious to anyone paying attention that our nation has, from its earliest days, been suffering as a victim of intent apparently beneficent but actually malicious in its nature. I have only became awakened to this fact recently, a couple of decades ago. It seems to be related to my age. There is something about the brain, such that -at least for some of us- things don't start to make a lot of sense until after midlife. These realities are part of the reason you and I understand that gold is something which we ought to value highly and individually possess, that it isn't corrupt, cannot be corrupted, and that it is in our benefit to own as much as we can. Mr. William Jefferson Clinton was the first to publicly announce that it was no longer within the ability of the United States of America to build levees along the Mississippi river to prevent flooding. Nobody mentioned that within the previous one hundred and fifty years it had been. Also, the space missions used to be flawless, perfection was the minimum requirement, the starting point. Now perfection is something aimed at sloppily, ancillary in its intent, unreliably achieved. Sure, there were always mistakes, but they came about _not_ on account of generally accepted slovenliness of effort and low, money-prioritized standards, to then be obscured by professionally worshipped dishonesty on the part of government managers acting in line with silently approved deceitful practices, as now. And why is there only one company in America effective enough to produce a viable fighter jet? The second runner-up couldn't even get its prototype off the ground with all the parts left on it. The excuse was, "We did the best we could." The statement should always be, and truthfully, "We did not merely do the best that we could, we did the best that could ever possibly be done, and it did not merely work well enough, it worked better than we could ever have imagined that it would." During these times of openly accepted piracy and fraud, quiet, officially approved theft, crude government deceptions of all kinds, astonishing stupidity and ignorance even in the highest places, it makes real sense for people to do what they can, in protecting their assets. I sincerely like gold. You will too. It has a warm hue, isn't cold, is not too hard but pliable, generous with its beauty, not plentiful, its luster is genuine, and soon, for most people, it will be very hard to get. Especially mine. They will have to give me an awful lot of dollars before I will give them mine.

DracoI knew I could find another reason to like Bush#9710902/08/03; 09:13:54

You will have to get password to get full article at URL, but it's free.

White House Floats Idea of Dropping Income Tax Overhaul

WASHINGTON, Feb. 7 — President Bush, having already set off a firestorm over his proposals to cut taxes and revamp retirement accounts, suggested today that the time might be near to drop the income tax as a whole and replace it with some form of consumption tax.

The idea was outlined in the White House's annual economic report to Congress. The report, prepared by the White House Council of Economic Advisers and signed by Mr. Bush, offers a scathing critique of the current system and an exuberant description of radical alternatives.

Michael Graetz, a professor of tax policy at Yale Law School and a longtime advocate of a tax on consumption, said the report was a clear signal about the administration's long-term thinking.

"It's unusual for something like that to be in the economic report of the president," Mr. Graetz said. "I don't believe the president has made a decision about what he would like to do. On the other hand, this shows they are serious about fundamental tax reform."

END SNIP ------------------------------------------

I realize at first blush this may seem non-gold related. However, think of the boon to the economy and markets this could have. And at the same time free up cash to buy physical gold and silver. The fundamentals for gold and silver would still be in our favor even if the economy could recover. We could have our cake and eat it to. Lets face it, if the economy gets as bad as some predict, it will be bad for ALL of us. With or without gold.

In a time when people are paying 50% of their income in federal, state, local, gas, alcolol, & property (etc.) taxes, we are paying more to the state than share-croppers of old were required to pay. We have become slaves to the state.

Forgive my rant !

I have included an e-mail sent to me by a friend. A GREAT example of how our tax system really works. I hope this sparks some thoughts from others. i.e. Would people really use the extra money to buy more gold or more toys ?

Courtesy of F. S.Com
How Taxes Really Work
by The Unknown Taxpayer
January 29, 2003

Let's put tax cuts in terms everyone can understand. Suppose that every day, ten men go out for dinner. The bill for all ten comes to $100.

If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:

The first four men -- the poorest -- would pay nothing; the fifth would pay $1, the sixth would pay $3, the seventh $7, the eighth $12, the ninth $18, and the tenth man -- the richest - would pay $59.

That's what they decided to do. The ten men ate dinner in the restaurant every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement --

until one day, the owner threw them a curve (in tax language, a tax cut).

"Since you are all such good customers," he said, "I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily meal by $20." So now dinner for the ten only cost $80.00."

The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes. So the first four men were unaffected. They would still eat for free. But what about the other six -- the paying customers? How could they divvy up the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his "fair share?"

The six men realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33. But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would end up being PAID to eat their meal. So the restaurant owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by roughly the same amount and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.

And so the fifth man paid nothing, the sixth pitched in $2, the seventh paid $5, the eighth paid $9, the ninth paid $12, leaving the tenth man with a bill of $52 instead of his earlier $59. Each of the six was better off than before. And the first four continued to eat for free.

But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.

"I only got a dollar out of the $20," declared the sixth man who pointed to the tenth. "But he got $7!"

"Yeah, that's right," exclaimed the fifth man, "I only saved a dollar, too! It's unfair that he got seven times more than me!"

"That's true!" shouted the seventh man," Why should he get $7 back, when I got only $2? The wealthy get all the breaks!"

"Wait a minute," yelled the first four men in unison, "We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!"

The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.

The next night he didn't show up for dinner, so the nine sat down and ate without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered, a little late, what was very important. They were FIFTY-TWO DOLLARS short of paying the bill!

Imagine that!

And that, boys and girls, journalists and college instructors, is how the tax system works. The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction. Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up at the table anymore.

Where would that leave the rest? Unfortunately, most taxing authorities anywhere cannot seem to grasp this rather straightforward logic!

Thanks for indulging me. _!//_
Back to lurking-----------------o00--(_)--00o---------------

DracoTRY AGAIN#9711002/08/03; 09:30:44

Spaces didn't work on picture fist try.....

Back to lurking-----------o00--(_)--00o------------

Liberty HeadDraco - Tax reform#9711102/08/03; 09:35:25

Tax reform divorced from spending reform is another political trick. The only solution is for gov't to cut spending way way back. Since that is not going to happen, we need the kind of insurance that gold provides.

Cognito aurea ergo sum


a nation of onethe last dinner#9711202/08/03; 09:42:52

Here is what would really happen to those ten men who all sat down and ate their suppers together.

1. The rich man would eat at home.
2. Each of the others would pay for the cost of his own meal.
3. Of the three who could not pay, one would starve, and two would become thieves. If there had been one hundred men instead of ten, five or six of these lesser ones would kill somebody in order to eat, and one of these would end up in jail, probably for a couple of years, unless he cried in court, in which case he might get acquited.
4. Of the ones who could pay for their own meals, one would become rich and would start eating at home and would start accumulating gold.
5. Of the other men who originally could pay for their own meals, one would become unable to do so, and the other one would write to congress. His letter would be read by one of three minor staff members now working for the first man who was rich and who got himself elected to the senate. The staff member -who is in charge of a twelve-inch-high stack of the senator's mail- would scan the letter, make a mark with a pencil into a column on a sheet of paper, indicating the letter writer's views in 'for' or 'against' terms, and then send the letter to be stored safely in a row of steel cabinets along with a lot of other letters in a cave somewhere so that they will all be safe for several thousand years. He would place the sheet with the columns on it onto the secretary's desk, and she would give it to the senator at 4:45 PM on Friday afternoon just before the Senator was scheduled to fly home so he could convince his constituents that he is truly up on everything occurring in his home state.
6. The man who was left, the one who could pay for his own meal, and who didn't write to congress and didn't become rich or poor or a thief or a murderer, had a number of possible choices. He could sulk in a corner. He might read a book. He may emmigrate to a foreign land. Or he might head up a clandestine organization of like minded other people who are also able to pay for their own meals and who also don't like excessively unfair taxes, and do what is necessary to cause them to be changed.

DracoLiberty Head#9711302/08/03; 09:45:24

What you say is very true, we do need to get our spending under control. But, it has been demonstrated many times in the past, if done properly, tax reform and tax reduction can actually increase tax revenues to the state.

I like your handle. The tag on my '86 Liberty Edition Harley is "L1BERTY". Hello 1340cc

Dracoa nation of one#9711402/08/03; 09:51:15

Very entertaining---Ilove it
Mr Gresham"SURVIVOR 2003": California bank closure#9711502/08/03; 09:58:14

Who will own the banking system when it's all over?

Here's one takeover (Texas!) bank, backstopping the Frac-, er, Federal Reserve's bank rescue plan. They almost certainly have these solid balance sheet rescuers lined up and ready to go into action, so no bad publicity lingers beyond a weekend -- ANYWHERE.

From Venture to Vulture capitalism in three years. Hey, Schumpeter's creative destruction is alive and well!

I don't think you're going to be able to open a checking account here... ;) Don't gag when you get to the "proprietary algorithms". Maybe Doug Noland will have a field day soon poking into some of these?

(P.S. But don't worry. They really ARE from Texas, for they write in Texican. "predominately"?)

"Beal Bank is Texas owned and headquartered in Plano, Texas with branch offices in Dallas, Houston and San Antonio. We are a State Chartered Savings Bank and a member of the FDIC. Beal Bank is one of Texas' largest privately owned financial institutions with over $5.5 billion in assets and over $942.5 million in equity capital.

"Beal Bank is designated as a wholesale bank. Wholesale banks like Beal Bank operate predominately in the secondary markets where loans and debt securities are bought and sold. We do originate some loans, but our direct loan originations approximate just 10% of our assets and earnings. Thus, the vast majority of our business involves purchasing and selling, in the national capital markets, loans and debt securities, which have been originated by others. Our founder and Chairman, Andrew Beal, has a great interest in the field of mathematics and has instilled a philosophy of careful mathematical analysis in our operations. We believe that we are one of only a few banks combining sophisticated mathematical modeling with the latest knowledge in behavioral finance and game theory to accurately quantify and price risk. We have developed novel, unique, sophisticated and proprietary algorithms that provide unparalleled success in loan and debt securities pricing decisions. Our proprietary computer systems allow us to rapidly process large loan pools and individual loans with unusual characteristics. We are a leader in large unique transactions in the secondary markets.

"Our disciplined and analytical approach to credit transactions is demonstrated through our record of only experiencing one foreclosure on all loans we originated from March 1988 through June 2001 (a home loan that resulted in a nominal loan loss).

"Beal Bank was ranked number ONE in the entire nation among all FDIC insured financial institutions by The American Banker publication, for return on equity over a five-year period ending December 31, 1999.

"Certificates of Deposit investors from all over the nation have responded to our attractive interest rates and have been an important part of our success. Our financial strength, combined with FDIC insurance, provides our customers with high returns on safe, sound investments. Come grow with us, via the Internet. "

TateBlack Blade#9711602/08/03; 10:04:40

"COMEX gold futures will be increased to $1,500 from $1,000 for members, member firms, and hedgers; and to $2,025 from $1,350 for speculative customers"
To me this is unofficial recognition of paper dollar is devalued by 30% against paper gold.
What is a new ratio of paper dollar against real money gold - physical gold?
Remember former secretary say Paul O’Neal say: " We never devalued USD"

The world markets are devaluing USD for them.

US governments Strong Dollar Policy:

1. Suppress Gold via disinformation and paper gold manipulation.
2. Grab (liberate according to Bush) a view oil rich countries.
3. Make Oil to be at $8.00.

No wonder they issued amber alert for US citizens. Elite is well hidden in deep bunkers.
Protect yourself and your family, accumulate physical gold. World elitists are powerless against Au.

a nation of onestickler#9711702/08/03; 10:07:24

My copy of Webster's Seventh New Collegiate Dictionary says that 'predominately' is a real word. I don't know where you are from, but you know Texans don't have a monopoly on bad English usage. Careless usage is practically an American characteristic. Most Texans are just too innocent to be ashamed of it.
a nation of oneone in a long line of further realizations#9711802/08/03; 10:09:32

Maybe instead of the word 'innocent,' I should have said 'naive.'
ElGordoUK: worst downturn in over a decade#9711902/08/03; 10:35:57,3604,891571,00.html

Gordon Brown was coming under mounting fire over his handling of the economy last night after government figures showed bankruptcies rising rapidly and Britain's battered manufacturing sector gripped by its worst downturn in more than a decade.

Following Thursday's emergency interest rate cut, the chancellor was forced into the second defence of his strategy in a week as news of a 4% drop in factory output last year brought Labour's economic record under the severest scrutiny since the 1997 election.
Gordon Brown in trouble? This is the genius who sold UK gold
at the very bottom of the gold price.

MKA Different View on the COMEX Margin Increase#9712002/08/03; 10:36:40

I know the tendency is to automatically find something sinister in the margin requirement increase, but it could also reflect the rising volatility in the gold market. I see this new volatility as a good thing -- an indication that there is solid action on both sides of the market with profit-taking and downside positioning as tangible components of the mix. We haven't had that for a long time, and it comes as a breath of fresh air. This volatility might also indicate that those responsible for market capping in the past have encountered stiff opposition. As a trader friend of mine put it a while back, "This is starting to look like a real market." The margin increase further validates the analysis that we are in the beginning stages of a break out bull market in gold, and my view is that many professional traders will get the same message. In short, I would read the Comex maneuver as recognition and capitulation to the "primary trend." This will not drive out speculators in my view but encourage them. Watch for the Comex volume to increase in the weeks ahead -- or better said, the margin move already reflects an increase on the long side of the market that is bullish at the core. Similarly, we are beginning to see wider spreads in the physical market also reflecting volatility. Spot physical platinum spreads are running $15 to $20! Spreading the gold price on both the bid and ask sides has been spotty over the past two weeks, but present. All of this is a good indicator. Look at CRB!! I would not be surprised to hear that spreads have widened on the physical side in oil and grains as well. . . .

One man 's opinion. . . .

ElGordoAnother bank bites the dust#9712102/08/03; 10:47:47

Debt risk forces bank closure

Statesman Journal
February 8, 2003

BEAVERTON — Federal authorities have revoked lending authority for a Beaverton-based bank that processes credit cards for clothing and household goods retailers Eddie Bauer, Newport News and the Spiegel Catalog.

Under a cease-and-desist order, First Consumer National Bank must dissolve itself as a bank, losing its lending authority, after an audit of its parent company found risky levels of debt.

The 14-year-old company founded in Beaverton will be forced to shutter a big chunk of its headquarters and an Albany call center if it cannot find a buyer. The bank employs about 1,200 people in Oregon.

Auditor KPMG filed a letter Tuesday with the Securities and Exchange Commission, saying parent company Spiegel Group, based in Downers Grove, Ill., had failed to comply with its debt agreements or re-negotiate its debt.

Spiegel's chief financial officer resigned Wednesday.

First Consumers National Bank manages MasterCard and Visa accounts nationwide, and retail credit cards for Spiegel Group holdings, which includes Eddie Bauer and the others.

At the end of 2001, the bank's credit card customers had $1.3 billion in outstanding balances and its retail credit card holders had $2.3 billion.
This just broke a couple hours ago.

ElGordoCaradoc, Turkey Hunter#9712202/08/03; 10:53:15

Thanks for the news on banks.
Misetich> saw that news on debt, will have to watch
banks in the US more closely now.
Huge amounts of debt starting to take its toll.

Liberty HeadRE: California bank closure#9712302/08/03; 11:12:07

When the pigeons of economic reality come home to roost, don't be standing outside in California (New Elbonia), without your golden umbrella and hip waders.
Mr GreshamSpace cowboy#9712402/08/03; 11:16:38

Banker Beal is many things -- a fascinating character apparently. My search was going to continue to see if he is a Bush buddy, but I think I'll stop with this more interesting stuff about his space launch business, and his mathematical endeavors. This is the kind of character I usually like, so I won't hold banking against him.

But I wonder, as far as rescuing a tipsy fractional reserve banking system, wouldn't they be looking for staid-looking old bankers in bow ties, rather than possible People magazine cover types?

a.n.o.o. -- won't go into all my good times in Texas (well, ok, a few) or my first best friend (& my mom's too) but as New Englanders, we didn't get around much, so TX was pretty exotic for us. ;) Think I was in a Molly Ivins kind of mood lately, from hearing an hour of her prime stuff on radio last week.

And if you mean things like "Predominately Presley. The world's ONLY Live all-Elvis Internet broadcast! ", I'm not sure that's going to put a new word into my vocab, Webster's or no. There is a way that words get formed, not usaged, into existence, and this doesn't work for me. (Yet. Link to a page of recent Dubyaisms to follow in 'nother post.)

" In 1997, using his bank's computers, he started
: looking into a problem closely tied to Fermat's
: famous Last Theorem. When he announced the
: problem's existence, it became known in the
: tight-knit world of theoretical mathematics as
: the Beal Conjecture.

: Although he has no background in aerospace,
: aviation, engineering, or any science, Beal is
: building a rocket in the Frisco plant he
: constructed and maintains without a penny of
: outside investment.
Two years ago, Beal stunned the rarefied realm
: of academic mathematicians by coming up with
: something none of them had thought of—a
: numerical puzzle that has since been dubbed the
: Beal Conjecture.

: He worked on the problem himself, then threw it
: out for the world to ponder, offering a prize to
: whoever can come up with a proof. Beal recently
: added 25,000 additional incentives to the
: original $50,000 award.

: The American Mathematical Society, which
: administers the award, receives about 20 calls
: each month about the proof.

: Mauldin says a solution to the Beal Conjecture
: could have further applications in cryptology.

ElGordoCOMEX moving silver around?#9712502/08/03; 11:35:22

Two CEF private placements announced Jan. 22 and yesterday will results in the purchase of another 2,320,000 ounces of silver.
COMEX only has supplies of around 107 million ounces?

VanRipHousing Boom??#9712602/08/03; 11:37:13

This is a surprise. Of course Pulte Homes was one of the sponsers of the study, so....


U.S. housing market solid for 20 years, study finds

LAS VEGAS (CBS.MW) -- The end-of-the-year strength demonstrated by the U.S. housing market, both in terms of building starts and existing single-family home sales, represents the tip of a 20-year demographic iceberg that will keep the markets humming until 2020, a new report says.

The pace of 1.2 million single-family starts, which has held since 1998, and the resale of more than 5 million existing homes each year is perfectly sustainable over a long period, contends the report "The Housing Boom: Another 20 Years of Growth." The report was released at the recent International Builders Show in Las Vegas.

(end of snip)

(me) Here in Palm Beach County, Florida, there is some evidence of softness in certain areas of the real estate market but not much. The money flowing into real estate here is mind boggling and new developments are springing up everywhere. Mid to high-end condos and homes (a million, plus) and even apartments. It's unreal. Snow birds (out of state people) from the north and west are descending here by the skillions it seems and apparently with lots of cash.

Some builders are being made to postpone building, to take turns so to speak, because road widening and construction cannot keep up with the surge in new construction. Traffic already is awful in many places and getting worse. I've been told that building permits, planned developments, etc., extend out several years. Must be retirees or people buying second homes because the economy here cannot provide the kinds of jobs to justify the numbers and kinds of prices these homes are bringing, IMO.

Maybe the study has a point. But If not and it's a bubble, it's expanding rapidly here. It's scary.

makcumka@ Van Rip#9712702/08/03; 11:56:26

On the West coast of Fla (Naples) the picture is about the same. Lots of expensive homes and condos, but they are not selling. Rentals are not being filled at the same rates, and the prices are much lower than normal. And the snowbird season will be over in 2 months. IMO, the building boom is alive and well because the builders are able to receive low interest loans and the money pumping into the housing market is increasing, since the "big boys" are going for the safe haven real estate investments. There are a lot of existing homes on the market as well, and more and more are popping up everywhere. And they are not selling, either. The supply is definitely greater than the demand at these astronomical prices. But you are right and there are still people coming down to the area with bags of money and buying some of this stuff up. Along with $5 beers and $7 ice cream cones. Crazy.
a nation of oneburban boom#9712802/08/03; 12:27:14

The house next door has been on the market for nine months, and only about five of six people have even looked at it. The would-be seller lowered the price 12% several months ago. No new lookers, much less takers.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Ally yourself with a gold broker that is knowledgeable and also cares...#971292/8/03; 13:43:20


In the September 2000 issue of News & Views: Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals USAGOLD-Centennial Precious Metals' founder and proprietor Michael Kosares said:

"[M]uch of this issue is devoted to oil, inflation, international politics and gold. . . . . Though the dollar continued to rise against most international currencies during the past month, most currencies ( including the dollar) were depreciating against real goods. . . . AND IT IS THE TREND THAT HAS ECONOMISTS CONCERNED. Crude oil, which must be purchased with dollars, is being blamed as the chief culprit. When the dollar price of oil rises, it fans the inflationary fires of nearly every nation in the world. All of this could at some point inspire a dollar rebellion among the nations of the world, with both oil producers and oil consumers capable of finding fault with the dollar simultaneously . . . . In such a case gold, of course, would become one of the primary beneficiaries and the dollar could go into a tailspin."

ABCs bookTake note that was written in September, 2000. Those who took advantage of Mr. Kosares' analysis -- and many did -- have been rewarded in two ways:

1. They averted disaster in the stock market.

2. They have participated in gold's meteoric rise.

News & Views is available to our clientele only. However, the latest issue is just back from the printer and available to prospective gold investors who request an INFORMATION PACKET on one-time only basis. We invite your request.

If you would like to get a feel for the thinking that forms the basis for market conclusions like the one featured above, take advantage of the offer to include THE ABCs of GOLD INVESTING: PROTECTING YOUR WEALTH THROUGH PRIVATE GOLD OWNERSHIP. A prompt with ordering information will come up after you submit your request for the INFORMATION PACKET.

CaradocFailed bank in California (afterthoughts)#971302/8/03; 13:46:42

With Beal bank taking over the failed bank in Torance, California, their "disciplined and analytical approach" to acquiring loans won't apply at all to the California real estate loans they're taking over. Presumably, the Torrance bank got in trouble by issuing or acquiring what turned out to be bad loans. The worst of those loans will have already defaulted, but included in the mix that Beal is taking on will be some that fall into the category called "not real good." Hardly fair for the folks of Plano, Texas, who chose to put their money with Beal because of its conservative approach.

As for an update on how people in the area are taking it, I can't help at all. Except for the one newscast at midnight last night, you wouldn't know it happened.

Observations/opinion... Within 20 miles north and south of Torrance and as far inland from the Pacific as three or four miles, there were dozens of 1946-1952 housing developments where 800 to 900 square foot, 2 bedroom 1 bath houses on 30'x60' lots went for 10 or 12K. These same houses peaked in 1991 at about 225K, fell back to 170K or so and are now going for ~315K. 350K or more if within a mile of the water. A fair percentage of current owners have refinanced and pulled out enough cash for their BMW. Not a lot of equity there for whoever ends up holding the bag.

I doubt that the astute Mr. Beal woke up one morning and said, "I'm tired of this 'disciplined and analytical' business. I'm going for something sportier like California real estate." Instead, my hunch is that -- whether through pressure or enticement or some combination of the two, he yielded to the PTB in their ongoing effort to have the strongest banks take on their "fair share" of the mediocre-to-bad loans that have to be rolled along into the future rather than upset things by having anybody forced to take their lumps in early 2003.

This implies that the game can be continued longer than you might think. Barring some event bad enough to send 2 or 3% of depositors to their local bank with passbook in hand, just averaging out the risks can be extended to the point where every bank is at the verge of going belly up. Meanwhile -- as long as IRS sends tax dollars to D.C. and bureaucrats control the faucets that send a percentage back toward states, school boards, companies, and individuals, there's another way to spread the risk. Whether it's an auditor, IRS, OSHA, assistance in buying textbooks, or the lure of a profitable contract, there are lots of ways that companies and entities like state teachers' retirement boards can be influenced to do "the responsible thing" with their pension funds by taking on their fair share of whatever needs to be parcelled out.

Upshot of turning everything into a house of cards is that when it goes, it all goes. This isn't the forum for specifics on how Al Quaeda, Iraq, or North Korea could make it happen sooner rather than later, but at the far end of "later," baby boomers begin turning 60 in 2006.

Got gold? If not, get some.

UsulTrouble at banks#971312/8/03; 14:16:33

It is not too difficult to predict, with the prevailing economic conditions, that there will be more bank failures. The price of things is going up. This is seen in the Future Inflation Gauge, the price of commodities, the price of gold. Eventually inflation will replace deflation. There will be no more room for interest rate cuts; indeed, they may have to go up. This will put the squeeze on those that have loaded up on low-interest loans and refinancing. The repayment stream back to the banks will dry up.
Humble Pie@ MK97120#971322/8/03; 14:22:46

Take heed what Mike says ,The cost of doing business whether it be leverage or cash/physical, is going up.It is the signal of better prices to come . IMVHO
R PowellMargin increase in the casino#971332/8/03; 15:05:00

When a big day for POG was a two or even three dollar move, there was less risk of the price moving enough to exceed the margin backing the position, even over a week's time. Those quiet days of yesteryear may be gone for some time now. The old $1350 margin covers a $13.50 move against the contract. Anything beyond that would trigger the much dreaded margin call.

This increase is probably a prudent move and pertains to both long and short positions. I would guess that after the silver market awakens from its long, long sleep, that margins there will also be increased. Thankfully, old positions are "grandfathered", and can still be held with the original margin but, for those of us doing so, the old high risk has become extremely high risk. Last week's quick run from the 370 to 390 level and equally quick return from 390 to 370 level certainly justifies the higher margin. When POG starts moving 30 or 40 dollars up and/or down in any short time period, margins may be raised again.

The game is certainly now afoot. Physical is always a sure thing and the safest means of gold ownership. For those of us playing in the casino, please be very, very careful (hedged). This is no longer a friendly nickle, dime, quarter Saturday afternoon poker game. Gold has not changed but the creditworthiness of everything else has declined. This trend may continue increasing volatility even more. Regardless of how any and every economic and/or political situation is further entangled or resolved (sucessfully or not), gold still will not change. Nor will silver which is still awfully cheap. BC BN + Buy often
Happy weekend

1340ccDraco #97113 #971342/8/03; 16:03:17

Hey more scotter trash! Hopefully with the information we gather on this site we can afford to quit work and ride from Stergis to Daytona and back all the time. I had a '85 Wide Glide, '86 FLHT Liberty, '91 FLHTC (named "My Priority) and now have a '96 Heritage Softail with '73 bags. You can never have too much Gold or too many Harleys.

One thing I wish would happen is at the next Gold conference everyone that attends and posts on USAGOLD would have a tag on with their handle. I'd be like a gropie at a rock consert! The knowlege you share here is appreciated even if you don't know it.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.What you need to know before you buy your first ounce of gold...#971352/8/03; 16:13:37

Q. What makes USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals different from its competitors in terms of its interaction with clients?

MK. Our business philosophy allows us to take a more laid-back approach. We don't employ a room full of brokers spinning the phones day and night. We don't have multi-million dollar advertising expenses dictating what kind of advice we give clients. This is all by choice. I decided long ago that I didn't want the headaches that go with managing a large number of brokers and the support staff and facilities required. At the same time, we get hundreds of requests each month for introductory information packets. We do not make cold calls. We do not work mailing lists. We do not call people at all hours of the day or night. We do not use marketing and sales gimmicks -- leaders, bait and switch, and the rest of it. We primarily work with clients who have discovered us, like what they see, and want to form a long term relationship with a reputable and reliable gold firm.

Q. Does the "laid-back approach" limit your business?

MK. Yes and no. In the short run, "yes." In the long run, "no." We probably lose a few prospects to the aggressive companies which use hard-sell tactics but we will not be changing our client-friendly approach. We know that not every prospective investor is going to become a client of USAGOLD / Centennial. However, we know that the client who chooses us is likely to be the type of client we are accustomed to doing business with. We work with a large number of professional people and business owners -- active, retired and semi-retired. In fact, we work with clientele that span the economic spectrum and all walks of life. Getting back to how our approach sets us apart from our competitors, we get quite a few disgruntled high net worth clients who come to us after being run through the mill by some of the boiler-room operations I've referred to earlier. They are usually grateful that they found us.

Q. And finally, is there anything else you would like to share with us?

MK. Fundamentally, we believe that we are here to serve the client. Anyone who has done business with us will vouch for the courteous and professional service he or she has received. Our staff is carefully chosen and it shows. We get referrals on nearly a daily basis and are kept busy with strong repeat business. I would also like to call attention to the solid informational services offered at this website. We believe that any of our clients or visitors will find USAGOLD head and shoulders above anything else out there. I would encourage anyone attending this site to have a look around. We also publish a very good hard copy newsletter called News & Views: A Bi-monthly Review of Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals. Above and beyond that, the most important thing is the way we treat our clientele. From first inquiry through order fulfillment, we want to make the gold investing experience as pleasant and rewarding as possible. We have a large and satisfied clientele and that's the way we want to keep it.

Daniel DruffKagalaska#971362/8/03; 16:25:29

Gut Call

I couldn't agree more with your common sense approach. The Ag is a steal.

The recent margin call should brings shouts of glee from the unleveraged Gold Bulls. One of the great ones, Livermore or it may have been Gann, said, "A bull market doesn't end with one margin increase."...or maybe he said, "You can't stop a bull market with a margin increase alone." Whatever he said, we should expect more margin increases. So here's a guess: When gold hits the $500 area, the initial margin will be $5,000 per contract...that's only 10% If it runs true to form, $50 swings will not be uncommon so let's face it, the overly leveraged guys don't have a way.

The CRB run is the whole story in a nut shell. There's a move to tangible assets going on and the retail players haven't got the word yet. It's going to be a wild one, imho.

Thank you

Dollar Billd reckoning#9713702/08/03; 17:12:42

*** Elsewhere in the world, the headlines are little different. Europe seems to be headed into a slump - with sagging confidence, sluggish consumer spending, and falling employment. Look for more rate cuts as central bankers everywhere try to stimulate their economies and keep their currencies from rising against the dollar.

*** China solved the problem by linking its currency to the dollar. It sells so much to U.S. consumers, it cannot afford a rising currency

The dollar lives on.

The Invisible HandDon't know what the article says, liked the title#9713802/08/03; 17:16:24,6903,891682,00.html

Return to an old standard?

Faisal Islam
Sunday February 9, 2003
The Observer

The current ascent of gold has been driven by geopolitical worries. But this year will see a whole new source of demand open up, and a partial return to the Gold Standard. An audacious plan, pushed by Malaysia, seeks to reassert the role of the precious metal in the international trading system through the minting of 'gold dinars'.
For Malaysia, and its Prime Minister, Mahathir Mohamad, below, it marks a strike back, of sorts, against the inequities of the global financial system. Malaysia, despite having a prudent approach to economics, was unceremoniously dumped by world markets. Mahathir eschewed the International Monetary Fund's medicine and instituted capital controls and a currency peg.
Most world trade is settled using international currencies, predominantly the dollar, followed by the pound, yen and euro. Malaysia says that the Middle Eastern and Asian countries are acutely vulnerable to the exchange rate with these major currencies. 'The gold dinar could be an important facilitating mechanism to help the smaller countries of the world move away from an inherently unstable and ultimately unjust global monetary system,' Mahathir told a conference recently.
The scheme, which is set to be launched in the next few months, has been coolly received by some central bankers, who point out that the gold price has its own supply and demand dynamics. But at least part of the motivation for this mainly Muslim scheme is political - to provide an alternative to use of the US dollar. Mahathir believes that the scheme will provide fertile conditions for stronger economic development in the underperforming Muslim world.
But the dollar's current descent and the prospect of endless growing budget deficits has served up an economic rationale for an alternative unit of account. Morocco, Bahrain, Iran and Saudi Arabia have entered bilateral discussions with Malaysia. There is a real possibility that the oil markets could propel usage of the new coin. And there is a British connection too.
The Bank of England holds the gold reserves of many Middle Eastern nations. Member countries would settle dinar trade balances every quarter by transferring gold held at the Bank.
But this move is only part of a generally more positive attitude towards gold emerging in the East. The Bank of China has increased its reserves by 205 tonnes over the past two years. Mongolia, the Philippines and Kazakhstan have also upped gold reserves.
Some analysts believe new anti-money laundering laws have encouraged investors to shift assets from dollars into gold.
But there may be a simpler explanation. In this time of uncertainty, people are turning to the one asset that has symbolised a globally recognised store of wealth since the Pharoahs.
The three decades since President Nixon took the dollar off the Gold Standard is still the anomaly in three millennia of monetary history

Draco@ 1340cc#9713902/08/03; 17:24:07

Wouldn't that be great !! Daytona is a must if you have never been. With what we are learning on this fantastic site that MK has provided, we can both have our next bikes gold plated instead of chromed.

Mine is the '86 FXRS Liberty. Ride safe my friend.

The Invisible HandANOTHER one from the same paper#9714002/08/03; 17:25:30,6903,891680,00.html

ANOTHER One from the same paper

Stock-take sparks the new gold rush

Bullion prices are rising as investors look for new places to stash their cash, but the bubble may burst, writes Richard Wachman

Sunday February 9, 2003
The Observer

Is there a bubble building in the international gold market? That question is doubtless on the minds of speculators who have driven up the price of the

metal by 35 per cent to nearly $400 an ounce in little more than a year. United States, European and Japanese hedge funds have been buying aggressively, and it is easy to understand why. There is still a lot of money swilling around, held by both wealthy individuals and institutional investors. They have seen three consecutive years of negative returns from the stock market, but they have to put their cash somewhere, and if equities are still going down, they will look elsewhere.
The price of gold reached $800 in the 1980s, but there has been a steady decline ever since as investors flocked to equities, and the yellow stuff went out of fashion. When recession looms and war threatens, however, gold usually becomes popular again - but it can fall in value quite quickly when an immediate external threat is lifted.
Take the example of the Gulf War of 1991. On the day before the start of the allied bombing offensive, the gold price stood at $403, but once news filtered out that British and American aircraft were in action, the price fell back to $376. By the time of the ceasefire in late February, the value of gold hovered around $365; it has been more or less downhill from there - until the terrorist attacks on Washington and New York. On September 10, 2001, the price was $271, but it climbed to $287 in the immediate aftermath.
However the campaign to oust the Taliban regime from Afghanistan in late 2001, and a feeling thereafter that global economic conditions were set to improve, dampened the price of gold.
So what has changed over the last 12 months? According to conventional wisdom, Iraq has cast an ever greater cloud over stock markets and the prospects for world economic recovery; hence, the rise of gold. But not everyone agrees with that analysis, and there are a number of complicating factors.
Michael Temple, of Gold Investments, points out that the performance of gold is linked to the decline of the dollar. The greenback has been hit by fears of conflict in the Middle East, doubts about the underlying strength of the US economy and fears over America's yawning current account deficit. 'The dollar/gold connection should not be underestimated,' says Temple.
He adds: 'Gold should be treated as a safe-haven currency, and one that comes to the fore when the dollar is under siege, as it is now. The euro may have strengthened as a result of the greenback's woes, but much less so than gold.'
And with fears spreading about the stability of the global financial system, investors with a jumpy disposition are taking delivery of gold bullion for the first time since the Gulf War. 'We are holding gold in our vaults for a number of clients,' says Temple.
'What is happening in the UK and US has already happened in Japan, where the banks have hinted that they may not be able to meet all their commitments to depositors, and that has led to people buying in gold. But we are nowhere near a Japan-situation here,' he adds.
Hugh Hendry at Odey Asset Management says: 'The rise of gold has nothing to do with Iraq. It has more to do with the policy mistakes of the US Federal Reserve; lowering interest rates in the face of sharp market falls in 1987 and 1998 propped up share prices and then inflated them to an unsustainable level. In other words, easy credit helped to cause the biggest stock market bubble in history.'
According to Hendry, investors are rejigging their portfolios so that gold plays a more important role, although he is also bullish about the short-term performance of government bonds.
He adds: 'In the 1970s, before the "cult of the equity" took hold, it was the commodity traders who were the star performers; commodities were an area where there was a lot of money to be made.'
It remains to be seen whether gold can make a sustained comeback, but several City analysts are cautious about the outlook. Alan Williamson, a commodities expert at HSBC, says: 'I think that the price of gold has gone up too much and in far too short a time. On Wednesday, after Colin Powell's speech to the UN, gold fell from a high of $389 to touch $367 - a 6 per cent fall in little more than 12 hours. I would have thought that the explanation is that one or two hedge funds, which have gone very "long" on gold, unwound their positions to take profits.'
Kevin Crisp, precious metals analyst at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, the German brokerage, says his forecast is for gold to reach $420, 'but I have heard talk about $600 or even $1,000'.
There is evidence that other commodities are performing well at a time when the shares markets are in the doldrums. Last week diamond giant De Beers reported a near-20 per cent uptick in rough stone sales - helped by strong retail demand, especially in the Far East.
But, with consumer confidence declining, De Beers warned that 2003 would be more challenging. Speculative buying of diamonds is curtailed by the fact that the market is difficult to fathom for most investors - there are many different qualities of diamond, and regulation has been haphazard in the past.
Elsewhere, most base metals quoted on the London metals exchange have risen by about 15 per cent since last year. Platinum is a case in point: the price has jumped more than twice as much as gold in 2003, breaking through $700 an ounce for the first time since 1980.
In part, the explanation lies in the vogue for holding hard assets, but platinum owes much of its strength to fundamentals.
Demand has outstripped supply for the past three years, with jewellery consumption in China surging from virtually nothing to about 50 tonnes a year.
Platinum is used in many industrial processes, and once again the Chinese economy is stoking demand at a time of rapid growth.
But the mining companies are not rushing to dig gold out of the ground; the central banks are not calling for a big replenishment of stocks as in days gone by. If evidence was needed that the interest in gold is speculative, rather than driven by underlying demand, here it is

Gandalf the WhiteSIR MK --- My ORDER of GOLD SOVEREIGNS were delivered today !!#9714102/08/03; 18:05:08

THEY are BeaUtiful and will be carefully placed in with their own age group so as to feel welcome in my spacious "invisible" VAULT !
SIR MK, your Professionalism is only exceeded by your Caring and Generosity ! MANY thanks for this TABLEROUND Forum !
ALL, like Ari says: "Get you some GOLD !" (and I add, "QUICKLY" before it disappears !)

Cavan ManHEADLINE#9714202/08/03; 18:22:23

Drudge reporting Hussein is being given a 48 hour ultimatum by Tony (the poodle) Blair and President Bush.
Cavan Manetcetera...#9714302/08/03; 18:24:36

Blair likely feeels better now after speaking with his wife who has received a green light from a conversation she had with an astrologer and a scientologist at the beauty parlour.
ForeignerEurope conspires to denay control of Iraqui oil to US.#9714402/08/03; 18:43:54



"In Germany, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld told a security conference the world was serious about disarming Baghdad. He rounded on France, Germany and Belgium for "inexcusable" stalling of NATO moves to help protect Turkey from any war in its neighbor Iraq.

Apparently undeterred, Germany announced a new Franco-German initiative to try to avert military conflict. A German magazine reported it involved sending thousands of U.N. peacekeeping troops to Iraq and trebling the number of arms inspectors.

Rumsfeld said however he had not been officially informed of the initiative and officials expressed skepticism over it.

Speaking to journalists after talks with German Defense Minister Peter Struck, Rumsfeld said: "I heard about it from the press. No official word. I have no knowledge of it."

A senior U.S. official said Rumsfeld had questioned Struck on reports of the proposal and the German side had confirmed they were talking to the French but were not ready to discuss the plan with the Americans.

"It's kind of extraordinary that the secretary of defense has been in Munich more than 24 hours and we get to hear about a major diplomatic initiative through Reuters," the official said. "


It seems that fight to denay US control of oil heats up. If that proposal ever goes trough and is implemented we may see dramatic drop in US dollar. What our politicos can do to stop it? Guess, only way is to start war asap, UN willing or not.

mikal@Cavan Man#9714502/08/03; 19:20:38

Drudge isn't "reporting that Saddam Hussein has been given 48 hours to leave Iraq". But you are right about the misleading headline. Good catch. At least there's still hope for peace. P.S. I hear rumors from people on the web with banker contacts, that a new U.S. Treasury issued currency may be issued within a few weeks. Seems preparations supposedly are ongoing for a system-wide changeover and some people claim to have actually seen the new bills. I won't rule this out at this point or at any time in the coming months.
Also, Congress must soon authorize a new debt ceiling to prevent US default and bond market calamities, etc. Seems there is a little legislative struggle to get a new politically acceptable compromise before this deadline, amidst more deadlines than the system was designed to process, IMHO!

02/09/03 US and Britain give Saddam just 48 hours to leave Iraq
By Julian Coman in Washington and Colin Brown -Excerpts:
Britain and America are drawing up plans to give Saddam Hussein as little as 48 hours to flee Baghdad or face war, if UN weapons inspectors report this week that the Iraqi dictator is still refusing to disarm fully.
The proposals will form the framework of a long-awaited second resolution, which could be put before the Security Council by next weekend.
The deadline would be just long enough for Arab neighbours to make a last effort to persuade Saddam to leave the country, according to US officials, or for a coup to take place. The shortest timeframe to emerge from private diplomatic discussions has been two days.
The phrasing of the new, deliberately concise UN resolution would deny Saddam a fresh chance to say that he will comply with Security Council demands. Britain will put forward the resolution because Washington "does not want to be seen to need it", according to a senior Security Council diplomat.
Foreign Office officials confirmed that Saudi Arabia has offered to take Saddam if he goes into exile. Last month Donald Rumsfeld, the US defence secretary, said he would be "delighted" if Saddam fled Iraq.
"To avoid a war, I would personally recommend that some provision be made so that the senior leadership and their families could be provided haven in some other country," he said.
To be passed, the new resolution would require the support of nine of the 15 Security Council members, assuming there was no veto from France, China or Russia. British and American officials last night made clear that they do not expect a unanimous vote in its favour but are confident that a veto can be avoided.
"The resolution being discussed would declare that Saddam is in material breach of UN resolutions, which authorises the use of all necessary means to disarm him," one senior Security Council diplomat said.
America and Britain are, however, determined to avoid a second resolution which would enable Saddam further to delay disarmament. "The last thing they want is a decision which just starts the process towards another decision," said the diplomat.
France, Germany, Russia and China favour giving inspectors more time, raising the possibility of a showdown on Friday, when the Security Council meets to hear the latest report from Hans Blix, the chief weapons inspector....
Despite the Franco-German initiatives, Britain insists that Iraq has had enough last chances. "It's a question of timing as to when you reach that point of last resort," said Sir Jeremy Greenstock, the British ambassador to the U.N...." End snippitts

turkey hunternew colorful money#9714602/08/03; 20:24:44

I read this article a while back. It talks about why the US government wants to put color in its money. The author claims it would be more acceptable for the people in South America to use it.

The International Monetary Fund [IMF], the World Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve System, working in tandem with the United Nations to ultimately achieve a fluid global economy utilizing a single global monetary unit, had originally planned to begin dollarizing the currencies of Central and South America at the end of this year as a condition for allowing those nations to participate in an expanded North American Free Trade Agreement [NAFTA]. (This is the part of the globalist plan to create five regional currencies before merging them into a single global monetary unit somewhere between 2005 and 2007......

Paper Avalanche@ mikal..... WHOA!!!#9714702/08/03; 20:39:18

Your comment in message #97145:

"P.S. I hear rumors from people on the web with banker contacts, that a new U.S. Treasury issued currency may be issued within a few weeks. Seems preparations supposedly are ongoing for a system-wide changeover and some people claim to have actually seen the new bills."

I have wondered for many months how the new US currency will come into play. There are a number of questions that I am still trying to answer, here are a few:

1. Will the new currency require that old dollars be called in within a specified time period? If so, how long and what would be the exchange rate between old and new US$?

2. Will the new US$ be a mirror image of the Euro in that it will seek to have a percentage of the reserves backing the currency in physical gold which is marked to market quarterly?

3. If the answer to question #1 is no, and the two currencies are to coexist, then will there be a prohibition of US citizens holding/using the new currency (previously discussed regarding the new US$ for use only in international trade)? If the answer to this question is yes, then will travel rights for US citizens in and out of the US be restricted to monitor and control the flow of any new US$ into / out of the US?

4. How will contracts denominated in old US$ be affected (i.e. mortagages)?

5. Additionally, if the answer to #1 is no, is it the intent of the PTB to inflate the old US$ to infinity so as to have it be removed from use or circulation by market forces?

6. If the US does model its new currency after the Euro, where the "free gold" concept is embraced, would it also be conceivable that there might circulate gold and silver coins to rival the dinar and dirham?

Pick one.


slingshotNew Colored Money#9714802/08/03; 20:53:26

Medieval Scene

Bring out your cash! Bring out your cash!

Convert Ditigal to Cash to Gold. They mean to take it all.

glennh10Re: New US Currency#9714902/08/03; 21:04:42

What passes for "money" today does much more than what money should do or is intended to do (serve as a medium of exchange and a store of value). Its usefulness to TPTB is far from that. It is used to bribe, coerce, cajole, control, intimidate, threaten, and even used as a tool to commit aggression and can serve as a form of terrorism against others. TPTB are pretty much getting pushed up against a wall (debt), and they'll soon have to think of some shenanigan(s) to extricate themselves. The Pres. wants to get re-elected, and he needs to get a "guns and butter" program up and running. He needs leverage. Fiat money offers a lot of flexibility to TPTB that honest dealing lacks. Think about their modus operandi, and you can probably imagine what they could accomplish with "new" money. Expect (consider) a worst case scenario. Fortunately many on this forum have already done just that. Squirreling away a little bit (or a lot) of gold and silver might come to mind. I remember a quote I read a while back, something to the effect that more people have been hurt by not having gold than having it.


OperativeGetting Some Answers#9715002/08/03; 21:53:08

Several parts of the recent State of the Union speech by President/CEO Bush have triggered an interest in several areas. One of the areas was his pushing for drugs to assist the AIDS victims in Africa. Compassion or tied to something else?? My first thought was some sort of Gold Mine interest (call me a cynic), but some research has turned up another area, oil. Major Oil, National Security type of oil, part of a solution to the Mid East problems type of oil.

The link is to a PDF file that is rather long, but if you want to get a better grip on what is really going on, what is driving so much of todays headlines, then you will want to get a cup of coffee and give this document a read.

Earth's resources are not finite folks. That includes Gold, very much so. It appears that as we tread into the future that all governments, not USA alone, policies will be primarly driven by the search for, and conquest of, RESOURCES. The US will continue to be a logger heads with the EU, France, Germany, etc in the race to secure these limited resources. The "fight" between the Euro/Dollar may turn out to be a sideshow as this develops.

There could be no better time to have a pile of your own resources, Start with Gold and silver!

Solomon WeaverThe "topic" of silver#9715102/08/03; 22:33:17

Kagalaska (2/8/03; 03:27:23MT - msg#: 97100)
Sorry about talk of silver RE Aristotel#97083 D.Druff#97085


You will probably not recognize my handle unless you have gone through the older days of this forum...but we have now and then had very interesting discussions on silver.

I will also point out the I personally made a rather nice purchase of silver eagles a few months ago...brokered quite nicely by our hosts at CPM.

I personally find occassional, well researched and timely posts on silver to be within the scope of our forum.

Cheers to all.....

Poor old Solomon

OperativeCorrection#9715202/08/03; 22:52:51

Earlier post should read: Earth's resources are not INFINITE. Oops. However, the ability of governments to print fiat to finance armies to go after the resources may be limitless. At least until they are tied in some fashion to a gold backing. MHO.
OperativeMaking A Killing, The Business of War#9715302/08/03; 23:10:55

Above link provides additional material in the battle for resources.

comment: as nations ponder each others resources with a greedy eye, and multinational corporations morph into quasi governments, as we watch power exude from backrooms armed with both Pen and Sword...can anyone think of a vaild reason not to own thier own stash of gold/silver, or as Black Blade puts it so often, a stash of food and other needed items.
As the CRB Index continues its upward climb, can anyone think of a better time to acquire these resources than TODAY??

The age old motto of the Boy Scouts has never carried so much weight as in today's world. "Be Prepared"

YGMWorthy Read...Gold Article...#9715402/09/03; 00:25:22,6903,891680,00.html

Some contradictions and half-truths tho...Noteworthy are comments about people taking delivery of Physical and Japans banks worrying over covering deposits...Left out is the fact that useless paper selling has driven the PM's prices down, not physical sales. Also ignored is the fact that Gold Corp and possibly others unknown are sitting on Millions of dollars of above ground Gold knowing higher VOG is coming. India has been selling alot of scrap gold, (jewellry for melt) expecting to buy back at cheaper prices and the Indian offtake of physical has slowed to a trickle...This will come back to haunt them and be a VERY positive thing to add to panic buying at some point. If just one trigger gets pulled in the world of Gold (ie: Japan has a bank run to name only one of MANY possibilities)
there will be a Gold rush the likes of which noone has ever seen......When, where and what the trigger will be is anybody's guess......So back to my corner of the hall to watch wait and absorb....YGM.

Mr GreshamColor of Money#9715502/09/03; 00:25:49

It's really hard to believe that counterfeiters have made such progress in overcoming the security features in the last redesign. They were pretty extensive. Also, hard to believe that $60 million in counterfeiting is worth flushing the old greenbacks, or that this will make much difference (unless the old "reprinting the $1s" trick was the counterfeiters' most profitable trick).

Wouldn't the point be to strand the hundreds of billions of greenbacks outside the US, by making the new currency available only internally, if such a covert purpose exists?

Unintended consequences? The gang that couldn't counterfeit (their own money) straight? Why do this now? The Treasury might produce the unwanted result of millions of anxious dollar-holders around the world switching to Euros for their paper dealings, fearing that the greens will become unredeemable in time.

The Invisible HandBritain's royal anti-war activist – Help in the Britain's adoption of golden dinar?#9715602/09/03; 02:37:54

A SERIOUS rift has opened up between Prince Charles and the government because he is seen to be AGAINST a war on Iraq and AGAINST America.
Whitehall also believes the prince is sympathetic to the view of his Arab friends that war on Saddam Hussein is a bid by the US to grab a stake in the Middle East's oil.

"He has this lunatic view he is the voice of the people."

There are also worries that he makes no secret of his anti-American views in conversations with members of Arab royal families and their leading officials.
Charles—who reads the Koran every day and often adopts Islamic dress at home—spends long hours discussing the Middle East's problems with Saudi royal family members.
One of his closest friends is the former Saudi ambassador Ghazi Algosaibi who wrote a poem in praise of the first woman suicide bomber.
Charles is also close to King Abdullah of Jordan. …
In private the prince talks about "American imperialism" collapsing the whole of the Middle East.
"Of course Saddam is an evil man, but American imperialism will not solve the problem," he said in one discussion.
He sympathises with his Saudi royal friends when they talk about their fears of America's true intentions in Iraq.
One close friend said: "They believe the US intends to collapse the whole Gulf economy and take control of oil.
"Once that happens the tensions in Israel and Palestine will explode."

All this while the Sunday Times headlines that the Chancellor of the Exchequer rules out euro entry
Gordon Brown has privately decided that Britain should not join the European single currency and he has told close colleagues he cannot recommend that Britain should consider signing up for the currency in this parliament,,2086,00.html
The Invisible Hand: What's the meaning of "No" (joining EMU) in politics? Prince Charles’ position is however unambiguous. He's moving to the side of French Prime Minister Raffarin by opposing the war. He has many Muslim heads of state as his friends. Malaysia, with its golden dinar, is also a Muslim country. Will Prince Charles perhaps convince the British people (as opposed to the Blair government) to accept the golden dinar instead of the euro? What about that? That hasn't been ruled out. But Gordon Brown has sold all the Bank of England gold. Well, by "joining" the dinar, Prince Charles would again go against the government. Call this a lunatic voice of the people. Or call The Invisible Hand a lunatic on a Sunday evening.

Yellow MetalInteresting "continually updating" page#9715702/09/03; 02:43:21

Thought this might be of interest to some here. I received the link froma a friend in an email this evening. One can click on a variety of world phenomena and see a continual updating of the related numbers. The sbove link takes you straight to the page relating to energy production and consumption.
TownCrierIn case you missed this yesterday... good topic for discussion#9715802/09/03; 05:32:32,6903,891682,00.html

...this year will see a whole new source of demand open up, and a partial return to the Gold Standard. An audacious plan, pushed by Malaysia, seeks to reassert the role of the precious metal in the international trading system...

...set to be launched in the next few months ... at least part of the motivation for this mainly Muslim scheme is political - to provide an alternative to use of the US dollar.

...the dollar's current descent and the prospect of endless growing budget deficits has served up an economic rationale for an alternative unit of account. Morocco, Bahrain, Iran and Saudi Arabia have entered bilateral discussions with Malaysia. There is a real possibility that the oil markets could propel usage of the new [gold] coin. And there is a British connection too.

The Bank of England holds the gold reserves of many Middle Eastern nations. Member countries would settle dinar trade balances every quarter by transferring gold held at the Bank.

But this move is only part of a generally more positive attitude towards gold emerging in the East. The Bank of China has increased its reserves by 205 tonnes over the past two years.

--------(see url for full article)-------

This comment from the article's conclusion is a good final word:

"...people are turning to the one asset that has symbolised a globally recognised store of wealth since the Pharoahs."

Whatever your personal understanding may be on locating the line between definitions of money versus wealth, it is nevertheless hard to argue anything other than the fact that gold is here to stay -- the indomitable fixture in the global financial scene.

Let the knowledgeable and friendly staff at USAGOLD-Centennial help you place your next order.


BelgianGeo-Politics .....> currencies >> oil >>>Gold#9715902/09/03; 05:45:06

The "Rumsfeld"-type of diplomacy (cfr. Munchen-Germany) is catastrophic for US/Euroland, existing and future, relations ...wich are detoriating at at faster pace.
This rift will have repercussions on $-€ relationship. Less economical but much more politically oriented (leveraged).

At present, we don't realize how lucky we are, of NOT having an Euroland, unified, military force !!! Think deep about this.

The ECB's purpose of marking to market of its Gold-exchange-reserves, is still, little understood ! Ask yourself, who has the most interest in the evolvement of POG ?
Compare this with your individual situation where rising debts can be offsetted by the increasing price of your house (property), manipulated (managed) by yourself in function of your debts.

The (possible) issue of new colored dollars would come at a very unfortunate, psychological moment. It could be *percepted* as a step closer to the political will to step down from the dollar-reserve status ? The management and different concept behind the dollar and euro, would certainly be questioned. And it is here that the then reigning geopolitical situation would be strongly influencial.

Euroland's cautious proposition to install a UN-force in Iraq is not that new. They wanted the same in Israel. And it was OK for the East Block.
US/UK-unilateralism on the M.E. is encountering very strong cross currents. Euroland is focussing on how to avoid more terror ! The US/UK would welcome it as a very convenient pretext (ugly as it is). The infamous UK-document on Iraq is a major blow to the credibility of Tony, not the socialist. A warning shot before the bow. Most likely Terror-detoriation will be written on his account.

The US/UK - Euroland - China - Russia - India, wolves, are gathering around the M.E. oil-prey. The US/UK is in the midst of writing "history", since 9/11, without knowing (realizing) its full extend (consequences).

Happy weekend.

sectorIraq Train wreck continues for dubya...and we havn't even fired the first shot.#9716002/09/03; 08:09:13


In planned ambush, Al Qaeda-linked, pro-Baghdad Kurdish Ansar al Islam assassinated three top generals of Talabani's PUK Saturday night in N. Iraqi town of Suleimeniyah

Gen. Shawkat Haji Mushir, commander of the eastern sector of Kurdistan, was gunned down by Ansar member who offered to defect . Instead, he and two accomplices opened fire.

With Mushir were Hekman Osman, Kurdish security chief of Sirwan region and Sardar Qafoor, military commander of same region. Halabja military commander Sheik Jaffar Mustafa was injured.

Murders of top pro-US Kurdish command in NE Iraq dealt serious setback to American war plans, comparable to murder of Afghan Northern Alliance commander Massoud two days before 9/11 attacks in New York and Washington in 2001
Russia will back Franco-German draft UN Security Council motion to deploy thousands of UN troops in Iraq to back up UN inspections and supervise disarmament. Motion will be tabled next week to block US-UK ultimatum

Pentagon will use 50 civilian aircraft to help ferry troops to Persian Gulf

More than 100,000 Turkish troops poised on border ready to cross into northern Iraq. US warns Ankara to stay clear of Iraqi oil cities Mosul and Kirkuk and oil fields.
sector—Things are turning to mush for the oil-challenged West. The shuttle failed making NASA look a bit culpable.

The French, the Germans and now the Russians have apparently formed a new "Coalition" aligned AGAINST the US and the UK.

Will they send blue hat troupes to defend Iraq?

It just keeps getting better.

BelgianTowncrier : Malaysian' audacious Gold-Plan....#9716102/09/03; 08:09:23

The Gold-paperists are trying to pull India's Gold (masses of it) into the paper-play as to mobilize the people's Physical, broadly distributed as it should. As if the biblical Golden calf must turn into a paper-calf.
In other words...this is the best evidence for dollar-tactics, still following the old recepe of gold-antithesis, included in the dollar's, aging, concept, constructed for hegemonic domination.

Malaysian's initiative is a counter force with a much higher profilation than the euro one. Just a difference in styles. Frontal dollar-attack against a shrewd undermining from the euro-block.

Yes, almost the whole world is in the process of dis-connecting from our OLD (whoops, old...) dollar-standards, through GOLD's NEW conception.

It is the systemic DEBTBERG that is hitting the globe's cruiseship Titanic, and the incapacity of producing "profits" as to push the debtberg further away from colission. The reason why less and less healthy profits can be produced (sustained) is dollar-domination.
There are limits on competitive, murderous, global currency depreciations. An often repeated phrase, but never taken seriously out of cowardess and lazyness from the Western view of things. The enslaved (5 trillion people), surely see this quite differently.

When those trillions of people start to wake up and want to take their own fate into their own hands...they will meet the Golden tool. Once they make the connection between Gold and the dollar's EXTREME vulnarability to Gold...this leverage will be applicated (exploited) ! In other words : kill the dollar with its own antithesis, GOLD ! Scarcely available PHYSICAL Gold. Not to "kill" for the pleasure of killing (Jesus !) but simply to set one Free from dollar-subordination.

IMVHO, the hart of the matter on what is happening now.
The *dollar-evidence* is a thing of the past and slowly fading away. The military might of the dollar (backing) is still in full power...but slowly resorting less effect. It will become contra-productive for peace and prosperity. This will enhance the dollar-disconnection further...and attrackt more and more attention to the incredible force of GOLD.

Most of the complacent Western world stays in full denial of the above. That's how it should be.

Many parts of the world are preparing themselves for a failing dollar, not affecting them catastrophycally on the economical front ! With almost zero IRs, the dollar is driven into a corner. The dollar will continue to lose market share against Gold (and the euro). Rising IRs will have a terminator effect on the dollar and its economy.
It will drive business into the expanding euro-block.
The dollar will have to remain on its inflation (hyper-inflation) track. Soon "political" limits will be reached.
Less and less people remain to be fooled. The concept of FREE GOLD will be forced by the global anti-dollarists.

Once Gold surges to its Real will have been pushed deep enough to carry a good proportion of world financial trade (A/FOA-2000).

Thanks Sir Randy.

ElGordo@Yellow Metal#9716202/09/03; 09:11:29

Cool site, thanks.
silvercollectorsector...........the 'alignment' is becoming clearer#9716302/09/03; 09:27:38

I read that 'oil interest' article last week. With billions of drilling rights, etc. already in the hands of the parties you mentioned it does look more and more like the 'race to Iraq'.

Keep US/UK out is looking stronger each day.

We watch this unfold, yes?

Keep us posted brother, have a golden week.

silvercollectorsector#9716402/09/03; 09:31:56

"......deploy thousands of UN troops in Iraq......."

It'll be tough lobbing bombs with these guys around....gotta wonder what meetings are going on behind closed doors between Iraq and the UN? Hmmmm!

YGMSome Scary Stats re: US Debt.....#9716502/09/03; 09:35:45



How about a lot to foreign interests?

The left chart shows foreign parties control 43% ($1.2 trillion) of all our Treasury bonds and t-bills.

This means the average American citizen owes $4,910 in federal debt to foreign interests.

A family of 4 owes more than $19,600 in this regard - - 28% of the total is owed to Japanese investors.

Note the rapidly rising trend since 1992, as foreign holdings zoomed upward - more than doubling their share.


This spend-spend-spend with debt-debt-debt mentality of the Federal Government has in more recent years spilled over into the private sector, as debt ratios of the household, business and the financial sectors have soared to historic record highs, which is graphically demonstrated in another chapter of this series called 'America's Total Debt Report' (link below). We have become a nation of 'debt-junkies,' living beyond our means more than ever before. And, like a drug junkie, we require larger and larger doses.

Foreign interests now own more and more of America - - According to the above chart, they own 43% of federal government treasury bonds. Foreigners own about "$8 trillion of U.S. financial assets, including 13% of all stocks and 24% of corporate bonds", according to Bridgewater Associates. . The major provider of money for home mortgages is Fannie Mae - - guess where they get that money > > answer: they borrow about a third from outside the U.S., according to Bloomberg Sept. 2002. Additionally, foreign interests own real estate and factories.

We should not be mad at foreign interests. We are the ones consuming beyond our own production, with nil savings, creating unprecedented debts in all sectors and trade deficits, PLUS excessive federal spending.

DuncanIdahoAnalysis#9716602/09/03; 10:02:23


Gentlemen: Over the past few weeks, I've seen very little acceptable analysis anywhere about what we may expect over the next year or so. Although I hesitate to do so, I offer my own, FWIW. This is based based on my own reading/research for "truth"/"reality". I am grateful to all who further my education, here at the Forum and elsewhere. DYODD, of course.

Oil and US$ are key:
1. Iraq is quickly defeated. Oil fields secured, essentially undamaged.
2. Iraqi oil and gold pay for the war, and to reflate the ‘allies’ economies. Future oil profits from sale of Iraqi oil go into ‘allied’ coffers. Permanent ‘allied’ ‘occupation’ and control of Iraq.
3. OPEC supply and pricing power essentially ended.
4. Oil continues to be priced in US$. Euro (and dream of European Union) essentially dead. [Makes no difference if France or Germany go along or not; both relegated to second-rank status infefinitely. Britain stays out of EU.]
5. US$ rises against all currencies; US$ continues to be the world's oil and reserve currency.
6. POG and PMs tank and stay there indefinitely.

I see no need to expand on this for now; I regard it as obvious. Should anyone care for further explanation, I will be happy to oblige. Thank you.

Best wishes,

YGMUS Bank Closures....#9716702/09/03; 10:14:31
Feb 8, 2003

California Bank Closed by FDIC; Customers Have More Than $30 Million at Risk
The Associated Press

TORRANCE, Calif. (AP) - The federal government has closed the failed Southern
Pacific Bank, casting doubt over the future of more than $30 million in
Southern Pacific was the first failure this year of a bank backed by the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., officials said. Its three Torrance offices are
expected to reopen this week under Beal Bank of Plano, Texas.

Customers of Southern Pacific will become Beal customers. But the FDIC only
insures deposits up to $100,000 per account. About $30.7 million in nearly
1,000 accounts was uninsured.

FDIC spokesman David Barr said customers may be able to recoup some of the

"They could get a portion of that back as we settle the assets," he said
Friday. "Over the past 10 years, uninsured depositors have received an average
of 70 cents on the dollar in bank failures."


Debt risk forces bank closure

Statesman Journal
February 8, 2003

BEAVERTON — Federal authorities have revoked lending authority for a
Beaverton-based bank that processes credit cards for clothing and household
goods retailers Eddie Bauer, Newport News and the
Spiegel Catalog.

Under a cease-and-desist order, First Consumer National Bank must dissolve
itself as a bank, losing its lending authority, after an audit of its parent
company found risky levels of debt.

The 14-year-old company founded in Beaverton will be forced to shutter a big
chunk of its headquarters and an Albany call center if it cannot find a buyer.
The bank employs about 1,200 people in Oregon.

Auditor KPMG filed a letter Tuesday with the Securities and Exchange
Commission, saying parent company Spiegel Group, based in Downers Grove, Ill.,
had failed to comply with its debt agreements or
re-negotiate its debt.

Spiegel's chief financial officer resigned Wednesday.
First Consumers National Bank manages MasterCard and Visa accounts nationwide,
and retail credit cards for Spiegel Group holdings, which includes Eddie Bauer
and the others.

At the end of 2001, the bank's credit card customers had $1.3 billion in
outstanding balances and its retail credit card holders had $2.3

***And so it begins...Paper burns and only Physical Gold & Silver will history show, as it always has done, to be the ultimate store of wealth.....YGM.

TruthcasterBloomberg on gold#9716802/09/03; 10:16:14

There's an interesting article on gold that
is running this afternoon. It is saying that the run up
in gold is over and that prices are likely going to
fall, and could fall 20 dollars more in the weeks to
come. It's always the same they say the price rise is
caused by the possible Iraq war and nothing is ever said about
the falling dollar.. Hmmm.. Well will have to wait and see...

knotakare@DucanIdaho#9716902/09/03; 10:27:50

You have staked out your position as a true contrarian on this gold board. I have to say that some of your assertains and projections are burdened by huge, gapping holes. I suggest you keep reading this board, and see if you can not narrow some of these gaps.

It is smart to be a contrarian when you have evidence that the crowd is wrong, but your core views will have a large impact on your financial decisions. I think your views acted on will result in a road financial losses and ruin.

RocketmanInteresting Divergence#9717002/09/03; 10:47:27

While silver stocks have been going up, silver bullion has not broken out yet.

While gold stocks have been modestly increasing, gold bullion has gone up dramatically.

According to Jim Dines, these divergences are because futures traders and the stock traders are different groups of people with different mass phycology. Eventually the prices will come into line with eachother.

Michael Levy, Jim Dines & Victor Adair seem to think that there will be a short term pull back in Gold bullion of $10 - $20.

The sense I got from the World Outlook Conference held in Vancouver this past weekend is that gold will be trending higher. Michael Levy suggested gold will reach $2250 - $2500 per oz.. Bill Murphy indicated a price target of $800-$1000 per oz. Jim Dines is bullish on gold be declined to give a price target.

Interestingly, Jim Dines was uncomfortable with Bill Murphy's "conspiracy" perspective on the gold market. Bill Murphy's arguments are compelling and I see little evidence to refute his position . . . apart from the current price of gold.

GoldnSilver2002Gold going up its obvious Duncan@Idaho#9717202/09/03; 11:05:14

1)A very messy battle in iraq,oil fileds blown skyhigh and oil dumped into the euphrates river.
2)World opinion turns on usa and the dollar is dumped en mass
3)april 1st Japanese deposit insurance is lifted and Japan with the highest savings rate in the world rushes to get what physical is left.
3)the gold suppression story is now covered openly all over the world excpet usa ,where many americans continue to think they are the only ones with money or the truth on gold.
4)China not wanting to be outdone by japan steps up its ever increasing demand for gold.The more the price drops the more they buy,crushing the cabals pathetic efforts.
5)North american media,which is always wrong about investments steps up a pathetic campaign to talk down gold as the cabal is now out of ammo and options.
6)Usd continues a steady but increasing decline as do The Down jones and Nasdog.
7)Oil prices go skyhigh and inflation sets in.
8)Bank after Bank collapses under the strain of all the bankrupcies.No one has any savings nor can they repay their debt.
9)Doubt in american paper assets rises
10)the war premium is already factored in.
11)Al queida strikes again causing panic as everyone has forgotten about them.
12)Russia,china,france and germany all respond by dumping usd as japan calls in 1 trillion in us treasuries.
13)As gold rockets upwards the american media(which has been saying dont buy gold the whole way up)is wrong again,now openly crying on t.v they drop to their kness and wail"please dont buy gold buy more enron,tyco,worldcom,adlephia,aol warner,ual,jpm,g.e etc to no avail,as no one even listens or trusts wall st or the media anymore.
14)Infomerical after info merical is cancelled as people stop watching ludlow and cramer,cnbc etc
15)American economy collapses under the strain of pure deceipt,high oil,high debt,high inflation,high unemployment.
16)After a messy war in iraq,america realizes it can never afford war again.Now adding iraq to its list of failures,korea ,vietnam etc retreats into historical irrelevance.
17)The gold suppression story already known worldwide despite ignorance of many us country bumpkins in idaho hits the u.s media.Americans now feeling betrayed hit the streets looking for blood.
18)Homeland gestapo is unleashed.
19)All americans who dont own gold or silver find they no longer have any freedoms
20)The pathetic attempt to talk down a gold bull by the u.s media fails as the war premium was ALREADY FACTORED IN
21)All the attempts do nothing to replace the 15,000 ton short position in gold.
22)The world realizes wall st is a scam and that america is a bad place to keep its money,leaving forever.
23)Straining under the weight of physical demand on futures the comex closes/defaults as everyone ignores americas paper spot price.
24)america is no longer the moral leader of the world and lies in ruin.
25)The world finds out all the gold is gone.

All these facts are self evident and in no need of any discussion as the whole world now knows about the gold suppression fact.

"aND THE BIG BAD WOLF SAID,ill huff and ill puff and ill blow your gold house down." But alas the big bad wolf had believed his own lies.

All the huffing and puffing will not drive gold down.This is a last attempt by a desperate cabal.It has failed this fact cannot be argued,excpet by morons from Idaho.

PizzBeing a contrarian contrarian#9717302/09/03; 11:27:09

or in other words, if a great many are trying to be too cute, too smart, and are trying to think 2 moves ahead, you can bet that you'd better be thinking one more move farther out.

The mainline press, analysts, and even some pro gold pundets are hedging their bets and warning of the coming decline in gold once war starts. Seems most are figuring that everyone has been buying the rumor of war, and will then obviously sell the fact.

Markets almost always move one leg higher or lower than most expect. Just as markets on the downside usually spike down below trend lines and support so the smart money can scoop up the sell stops, markets like gold that are in uptrends will spike ubove resistance and trigger shorts and buy stops (over 400 on gold) before they correct.

Nearly all markets will penetrate major resistance before they react. It is the pattern that clears all the buy and sell stops (resistance) so it is clear sailing the next time thru the area.

At least one more leg up this month, and if you're a trader, that will be the time to unload your trading portfolio to buy back in a few more months.

One other thing - never, ever, underestimate your advisary, even if they are a bunch of thugs in Iraq, or a bunch of lunatic terrorists, especially if you live in a huge finacial glass house - only takes one big rock. . . . .

I'm hangin on to all my gold, silver, and shares, even if we do hit a technical soft patch. With a 20% tax on long term gains, and maybe more on short term, I do not feel there is enough downside risk to PM's to warrant the tax consequences of selling. . . .the government already squanders too much of my oney to give them anymore than I have to. . .and I'll probably have to fight for my Social Security. . .

Hang in there. . .


slingshotDuncanIdaho#9717402/09/03; 11:35:52

Next Year

Rhode Island Red. Check. Magic Bones. Check. GOLD coin Check.

We are going to get a taste of things of which some we will like and some that are very distasteful. I agree that information has a limited time of assurance before becoming obsolete and useless.

I see the US economic engine slowing down, and so goes the world.
The US dollar to be defended and will continue to try to cap the POG.
The war with Iraq. Intact oil fields. Will NBC warfare take place? Terrorism? Will the US stop here or continue being the World Cop against Terrorism.
How do I see Gold? SOLID.
This Arm Chair Soothsayer can Cut Old Red,Roll the Bones and still have to flip a coin to satisfy my thoughts of uncertainty.

Do not remember you posting before. Welcome aboard.
Cold rainy day for me.

Cavan ManHi Pizz#9717502/09/03; 11:45:15

My sentiments exactly.
hipltDuncan@Idaho#9717602/09/03; 12:12:54

As I have tied my family's $ future to the fate of gold/US$, I am cautious as to "group think". Your commentary, Mr.Duncan, (my worst case scenario) requires a critical check of my operating assumptions.

As a Viet Nam infantry officer and a student of military history, I can offer this forum the following:
the military as hide-bound, conservative organism ALWAYS fails to account for the next turn in the cycle of change (witness the longbow at Agincourt; the rifle in the Civil War; the submarine trumping the battleship in WWI; likewise, airpower trumping all naval forces in WWII).

Desert Storm was the last acting out of the classic WWII battlefield. Had the doorway been slammed shut at Basra, the last four divisons of the Republican Guard would have been finished. They weren't, thus Saddam remains in power.

This time will be different. Saddam and the RG know they must not stand toe-to-toe in open desert warfare. They also now understand the impact of two new weapons: CNN and suitcase WMDs. As one commentator noted, the Seige Of Baghdad will be beyond ugly. And how the B-1 bombers, the Abrams tanks et al will protect us from WMDs, perhaps already in place (god forbid) is less than clear.

I fear their success in Desert Storm now bind our leaders (Cheney, Powell et all) perceptually and the old "CAN DO, SIR!" bullshit is back with a vengance.

ElGordoDon't forget the debt DuncanIdaho#9717702/09/03; 12:43:50

@HipLt- The best example was Billy Mitchell and airpower.
After he proved a little plane could sink a big ship they got so
mad they courtmartialed him. The Germans and Japanese
took note.

DuncanIdaho- Wars are expensive and we have a ton of guv,
state, personal debt. It will take years and billions to
upgrade those fields. The idea that some huge surplus starts
flowing out of Iraq in a few weeks is wishful dreaming.
Saddam has let the equipment go to hell. Iraq can pump less oil today then they could 10 years ago. Even if not one bomb hits
an oil field, it will take years to get them up to snuff.

China will be sucking in a LOT more oil in future years.
Supply Demand not looking good.

Daniel DruffThe Fundamental Reason for Gold Ownership#9717802/09/03; 12:50:30


From what I understand, Fiat/Credit "production" exceeds Gold production. When gold is produced at a faster rate than fiat, please give me a "heads up"...until then, I'll buy all I can because there is no way that fiat will increase in value relative to any tangible asset least of all Gold. But maybe I'm wrong.
Belgian@ Duncan Idaho's scenario.....#9717902/09/03; 12:55:40

Your perfect scenario sounds like any surgeon visiting his patient after the operation and announcing that "technically" everything went perfect. The patient died a few weeks later. Cause : unknown !

His dollar-pulse was OK. His oil-flow and pressure were OK. And all his organs kept on working for him (the patient).
He received some military antibiotics and seemed in good condition. Why did this patient needed a Gold insurance anyway ? What a waste of confetti.

Is this world really as perfect as your scenario suggests ?
I must admit that a vast majority of people, do think so.

Personally, I'm with that very small minority that "hopes" it will turn out, perfectly, as you suggest. But I don't believe in this "hope".

What are your arguments for your stated reality optimism ?

Old YellerJust who are the "commercials" with the nerves of steel#9718002/09/03; 12:58:33

From ORO's latest thoughts,

"FOA and Another had portrayed their understanding of the
gold situation as US banks having shorted substantial amounts of gold which would be impossible to cover.As a
result,these banks' gold obligations would be defaulted.
Since default would have pricing of 'paper gold' go to
'zero''shorting paper gold by European banks would be a
no-lose propostion.The European banks did just that,and
with the most reckless abandon.They now find themselves
holding the bigger bag."

Is this why JPM has disappeared off the radar screen?

It appears as if the European banks and insurance companies
are holding most of the toxic goo from US CDO's as well.

One cannot make unilateral geopolitical decisions when
another party holds that entity as an economic hostage.

Outfoxed agai?

TrojanThe Real Reasons For THe Upcoming War In Iraq#9718102/09/03; 13:07:14

I have posted this link before but since the author, W. Clark has updated it as of January 26, 2003 and possible War in Iraq is now at a critical stage.

In case some of the forum members haven't read it I am posting the link again.

It couldn't be more topical and is one of the BEST essays that I have ever read on the Internet.

It also appears that Putin in talks with Schroeder earlier today and in conjunction with France has a substantial New UN Resolution to present on Friday to the UN.

Blix has also expressed satisfaction today with his talks in Iraq.

This is really about who will be the dominant POWERS in the World for the next 25 years.

This could be the most exciting time in our lifetimes over the next 10 days.

Let's have some serious discussion on this topic.

Can Russia, France, Germany and China, the four Oil countries with ties to Iraq, allow the two Countries with NO Presence to speak of in Iraq, namely the U.S. and Britain (with regard to Oil), prevail with a War to control the Oil fields and probably dismantle the OPEC powers ?

TrojanSorry Guys :-) And Gals ?#9718202/09/03; 13:18:21

"Let's have some serious discussion on this topic."

I mispoke !!!

I posted my message without having read through the Forum's posts for the day. I see that you already are having a very serious discussion about the current topic. My link should add some good background on this topic for those who haven't read it as yet.

Keep up the good work. This is the best Forum in the World for informed opinion and knowledge.

Thanks, folks.

ToolieGreetings DuncanIdaho#9718302/09/03; 13:28:21

Click here for an error message

DuncanIdaho says;

Oil and US$ are key:
1. Iraq is quickly defeated. Oil fields secured, essentially undamaged.

(Toolie Says; Lets hope so but, it took a year to extinguish the fires after the gulf war. For good measure consider the effects of WMD's on timers.)

2. Iraqi oil and gold pay for the war, and to reflate the ‘allies’ economies. Future oil profits from sale of Iraqi oil go into ‘allied’coffers.Permanent ‘allied’ ‘occupation’ and control of Iraq.

(Toolie Says; The figures that I have, show that The US imports 8 Million barrels of oil per year. Lets say the price of oil is cut in half. At $15 bbl that only a savings of $120 Million per year. Is $40 Billion a good est. for a quick war and easy peace? If so, in 2333 we will recoup the cost of the war. I can't wait!

3. OPEC supply and pricing power essentially ended.

(Toolie Says; Damaged, Yes.)

4. Oil continues to be priced in US$. Euro (and dream of European Union) essentially dead. [Makes no difference if France or Germany go along or not; both relegated to second-rank status infefinitely. Britain stays out of EU.]

(Toolie Says; The US encounters a growing number of nations that prefer payment in gold dinars.)

5. US$ rises against all currencies; US$ continues to be the world's oil and reserve currency.

(Toolie Says; The Yen deflates to enable it to compete with China. The Dollar deflates to enable it to compete with the Yen. The Euro deflates to compete with the Dollar.
One day soon, a central banker in China is going trip over a pile of dollars and demand that they be removed)

6. POG and PMs tank and stay there indefinitely.

(Toolie Says; The injured central banker will buy gold!)

Hey DuncanIdaho, Thanks for the brain food!

CometoseFrance / Germany/ Russia unite against US/UK#9718402/09/03; 13:41:42

It is quite intersting watching this game of chess play out;
as of last night someone posted here I believe, that there is a new resolution being drawn up to send U N peacekeepers and increase the amount of inspectors to IRAQ. In addition to that , I learned last night , that included in the negotiations is a proposal to ensure against U S gaining control of IRAQI oil period...
I will bet that if this proposal is accepted by the U N security council , all the world will see on the center stage as the cloak of deciet comes down that U S and UK want IRAQI oil.....

Very wise move on the part of players opposing war to take the oil premium (benefit to USA) out of the scenario ....
THis will in effect diffuse imperialism benefit and therefore deescalate ( propagandized) percieved need for war. Plagarized reports quoted by Collin Powell and this clearing of the air re motivations will further reduce the U S image globally.....(wonder of the COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS is involved in this IMAGE DOWNSIZING OF AMERICA).

THen U S has a big decision to make whether to take Iraq or not..... the implications of this decision will ( after all else has been exposed ) will come with the full scent of what it in fact may be ..Imperiialism....The consequences for this approaching unbridled aggression in the world's eyes....will justify in the eyes of the world whatever retalliation that may come as a will probably be swift and come in two waves

One in the markets / the world will collectively dump America stocks and bonds... and buy more gold ...reverse Sanctions

Two .... the other......more 9/11

IMHO the press is going to get a hold of this and do a good EXPOSE on BUSH ET AL....

I read an article 4 weeks ago from another gold site in its forum about (K) North KOREA's launch cabability against the U S. They claim they have a missile that will reach CHICAGO....but they only have to reach the WEST COAST.
is it verifiable..... As verifiable as BILL CLINTON helping the CHINESE get our missile technology via Loral Corporation....Why isn't this story and it's implications for the AMERICAN PEOPLE being told over and over everyday..... is it because SH*T HAPPENS is a current in choice attitude of our elected representatives aquiescence toward collateral damage....caused to us becuase of their careless, prozac induced stupidity and blindness.....
Their falure to address this with the press is a gross omission and deriliction of their duty to us...


So WE have the MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX working in concert with BIG OIL and BIG MOTOR COMPANIES to maintain the status quo...USING the flesh of young americans(AMERICAN FAMILIES BLOOD) to do their bidding.
Military Industrial Complex loves you as long as you support them with your taxes (enable them to perpetuate their bad bull sh#t) The big oil loves you as long as you keep filling your tank. Big Motors companies love you as long as you keep buying their cars....Your elected representative love you for your vote...ALL OF THESE RELATIONSHIPS AND GOOD WILL TOWARD YOU IS BASE ON YOU DOING YOUR PART : GREASING THEM DOWN. Sorry , I forgot Wall St...... NONE OF THESE GROUPS / INDIVIDUALS gives a damn about you....BECAUSE THEIR VISION STOPS WITH THEIR GREED/ which means their blind ....All these relationships are tainted....

As long as the benefit derived doesn't help them ,,they don't care because they are stuck on the dollars. WHat about the future of mankind and a Better WORLD. THeir vision stops where the buck stops....That's why there's no vision for a better world....BEWARE , when the bombs start flying , you will be on your own..

WHy doesn't the press do the coverage on the KOREAN MISSILE CRISIS.......

WHo is going to pay if their is a preemptive strike on the west coast. Magnify 9/11 100 times and begin to get a feeling for the implications of what your leaders Bush and Rumsfeld are up to .......
They know .... We have to act like we care we will set up Homeland Security and give our citizens color codes to alert them to the threat of Terrorist strikes.
THEY KNOW WHAT THE IMPLICATIONS ARE ....but they won't tell you ..."Hey we think that they might nuke the west coast as a result of our aggressive behaviors ....but we gave you HOMELAND SECURITY ...that should make you feel better".

Radiation flows from west to east ...with the weather pattern...

Looks like cooler heads are going to come in the form
RUSSIA ,France , Germany , and CHINA pulling the curtain on these shenanigans.

This is a time when the press may be able to participate in the saving of 100,000's of averting this disaster...if they do their job.

In the Bush Rumsfeld approach , every one loses , nobody wins except for the elite......Isn't George Sr in the oil business ....Isn't CHeney in the oil business. George JR...? GM? EXXON ? MOBIL Isn't the MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX working for BIG OIL....IS THE CABAL WORKING FOR THESE GUYS TOO? HMMM....and all this time I thought it was about gold ....... we're talking about CONTROL of a massive undertaking going south ...



THE IRAQI ADVENTURE THAT WASN'T : the day of the big backfire......stay tuned SPORTSFANS ....things are really getting interesting now.....

YGMTrojan.....#9718502/09/03; 13:52:17

Root Causes of all Wars Never Change......

Thnx for the link. It is an important article and a very worthy read...I think tho for many like myself these discussions not unlike those on many other topics of subterfuge, power, world dominance by CB's (ie: NWO, FRB, BIS & Gnomes of Zurich etc) one only gets a headache from the effort....
But one does get headache relief from discussing ways of surviving and maybe even profiting (sadly) from these uncontrolable events and entities.....Just MHO....
The World can and seems to be going to hell in a handbasket
and no amount of talk will change that.....I've watched many posters come and go here over the years and so many I think just get info overload and come to the realization that no amount of talk will change anything, and they adopt a form of survivalist mentality and retreat to the shadows & contemplate all they know with what's been learned here at this great table...

I hope you get your discussion so I can follow along but if not, well I wouldn't be surprised...

I think we'd be very surprised if we knew of all the profound and bright minds who've posted here in past that still read and say nothing (I don't profess to be in that category :>).....Enjoying most all of what I see here and especially some new faces.....Respectfully...YGM.

Go Gold, Go GATA & Go Physical.

Maverick1Al Qaeda’s Opening Shot in Iraq War#9718602/09/03; 14:06:13

Al Qaeda’s Opening Shot in Iraq War

DEBKAfile Military-Intelligence Exclusive

February 9, 2003, 5:50 PM (GMT+02:00)

Ansar al-Islam fighters - down-at-heel but dangerous

Saturday night, February 8, in the Iraqi-Kurdish city of Suleimaniyeh, al Qaeda and Iraqi military intelligence fired their first shot of the US-Iraq war - by assassination. They used their shared surrogate, the extremist Kurdish Ansar al-Islam of northeast Iraq, to eliminate the top command of the pro-American Patriotic Union of Iraqi Kurdistan’s fighting militia.

The three-way collaboration between Baghdad, al Qaeda and the Kurdish fundamentalist terrorists provided a live and incontrovertible smoking gun. The price was heavy, a grave setback for US war plans.

DEBKAfile’s military analysts compare the murders to the assassination of the Afghan Northern Alliance commander Shah Massoud two days before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington.

Then, the killers posed as journalists; this time, they pretended to be defectors.

Ansar al Islam, which has been fighting the PUK for two years and whose members trained in Afghanistan, used double agents to convince the Kurdish commanders of this strategic northeastern corner of Iraq that top Ansar commanders were willing to defect. The defectors, it was promised, would bring fresh evidence of the collaboration between Iraqi military intelligence and al Qaeda.

The offer came just after secretary of state Colin Powell spoke of this collaboration at his Security Council presentation of America’s case against Iraq on February 5. According to DEBKAfile’s military sources, the Ansar offer was relayed to officers of the US special forces and CIA working alongside the PUK militia. According to some local sources, the Ansar intermediaries also offered to produce captive Iraqi military agents or al Qaeda operatives as hostages.

Suleimaniyah, the hub town of eastern Kurdistan, is also the headquarters of the PUK high command in the region. It is ruled by the PUK leader Jalal Talabani, who has been short-listed in Washington for the post of Iraqi prime minister after Saddam Hussein’s ouster.

Suleimaniyeh also commands the highway from eastern Kurdistan to the important oil town of Kirkuk. The intermediaries’ choice of this city for the Ansar defection was intended to inspire trust. Any defectors guilty of treachery would be at the mercy of the PUK.

Believing they were safe, therefore, the top PUK commanders turned up to await the defectors. Instead of defecting, the Ansar arrivals pulled from their robes Kalashnikov assault guns and grenades. They killed Gen. Shawkat Haji Mushir, PUK leadership member, Hekmat Osman, security chief of the Sirwan district and Sardar Qafoor, military commander of the same district, as well as Sheik Kaffar Mustafa and three civilians. Mohamad Tawfiq, security chief of Halabja was seriously injured.

The Ansar killers used the noise and confusion to make their escape.

DEBKAfile’s counter-terror experts note the features common to these murders and al Qaeda’s assassination of the legendary Northern Alliance leader, Ahmad Shah Massoud, by two suiciders who detonated bomb belts just two days before the Islamic terrorist network struck in New York and Washington. Today it is generally believed that al Qaeda, predicting America’s response to the terror attacks, struck in advance of the Afghanistan War to eliminate America’s most gifted and formidable military ally.

The wiping out the PUK high command in Suleimaniyeh has alerted Western counter-terror agencies to the possibility of its being the precursor for another massive al Qaeda strike against the United States or its allies. Al Qaeda has taken advantage of the presence of its operatives in a given territory to hit pro-American military leaders present in the same place. One such operative is Abu Musaab al Zarqawi, who is in charge of terrorist activity in Europe and the Middle East, as well as the worldwide distribution of the network’s stock of chemical, biological and radioactive weapons. It is therefore possible that the murder of the Kurdish commanders signals the next major al Qaeda outrage.

According to our sources, Ansar al-Islam is rife both with Zarqawi’s men and also Iraqi military intelligence officers, under the command Colonel Abu Wale. These officers have been training al Qaeda operatives in the use of forbidden weapons. In a special DEBKAfile report published on Saturday, February 8, the secret al Qaeda base for its joint operations with Iraqi military intelligence was revealed as being located in the town of Tajdori, 150 km northeast of Baghdad.

This joint enterprise and the al Qaeda-Iraqi activities among the Ansar have not been lost on US intelligence in northern Iraq. Before he was murdered, PUK commander, Gen. Mushir received heavy cannons for his militia, supplied by the Turkish army at the request of the Americans, for the purpose of mounting action to capture the Ansar enclave. This operation has meanwhile been called off.

knotakare@Cometose#9718702/09/03; 14:54:40

Excellent commentary on your part. I am in shock that some countries will actually stand up to these monsters.

These PTB have put us in harms way for the rest of our natural lives; they are traitors to the US constitution and to the people they supposedly lead.

I would like to ask the Europeans on this board a question: will you allow US imigrants into your countries, people seeking political and economic assylum? I can see that that sad day may be approaching within the next 5 to 10 years. I think that this is the slippery slope we are on, that our freedom will soon be a thing of the past.

I also am stocking up on bullion, not only as a store of wealth, but also as a vote againsat a corrupt US dollar system.

Liberty HeadRediscovered Values#9718802/09/03; 15:02:01

Anymore, when I read the Constitution or the words of Emma Lazarus inscripted on the Statue of Liberty, I am struck with awe and deep sadness at how much our values have changed since those passionate heartfelt words were first written. Such words seem to be appreciated only after much bloodshed. I get upset whenever someone suggests those values are outdated relics, because those are my values and here I am. Our values are at the core of all our actions. They are the necessary elementary fundamental foundation for our continued existance. I suppose that is why I like the idea of owning gold as well. Gold is also an element. It cannot be reduced any further. It's chemistry is intrinsic and cannot be altered by the most convincing rhetoric or the most forcefull tyrant. Reverence for gold coincides with the high points of civilizaion.
Gold is beyond the inferior laws of mankind. It is in obediance only to the laws of the universe.
For me, gold is a store of those misplaced values from the birth of our nation, dollars be damned.

Thanks for listening.


White HillsCometose#9718902/09/03; 15:09:22

Using this forum for political attacks on the United States of America ,of the sort that you post, are covered in the rules of this forum as prohibited. I really am tired of this kind of posting as it requires that those that disagree with you must either answer are ignore the tirade. If it is answered that in itself violates the rules of the forum. To ignore your post lets stand your statements. What to do? I guess the only thing I can say is that your handle is certainly correct. White Hills
DuncanIdahoHornet's nest#9719002/09/03; 15:18:01


Re this morning's post: I'm glad I went on and stirred the nest; I did not do it lightly, but most of what I've been seeing on the net [I stopped watching and listening to the Looney Tunes on TV some time ago. After all, why should I pay for my own brainwashing.] is so focussed on the very near some cases, on the very next tick in POG/PMs. I'm grateful for the responses and feedback. My primary concern was that no one seemed to be voicing what I continue to feel are the vitals of this Iraq situation, and how it squares with the HOF posts of Another/FOA (whose posts moved me away from PMs to G/S physical. Sadly enough, I only came to their Hall Of Fame posts in the last month or so.).

@Trojan: Thank you for posting Mr. Clark's article again. It was that analysis that dynamited the logjam in my own thinking. IMO, it is key to understanding what is going on, not just in Iraq, but in Europe, Asia, and in POG/PMs, and what some of the repercussions/ramifications of the war are likely to be, particularly vis a vis Forumites and POG.

@Belgian: I do not see this as "perfect scenario", merely the most likely, and I certainly do not see this as "reality optimism". Far from it. I agree with Trojan's statement that this war will determine "the dominant powers in the world for the next 25 years." It is a ‘power’ war; oil and currency (and therefore POG) are merely means to that end. Re ‘reality’: Years of reading history, economics/financials, biography, etc., and thinking about what I've read, trying to fit the pieces together into a coherent, meaningful pattern/hypothesis about how the world ‘really’ works.

@ElGordo re ‘debt’: The debt will continue to be ‘managed’, as it has been to date...with fiat in control, and the media's mental manipulation of the populace continuing. As one master put it: "Hope clouds observation."

@Toolie re oil fires: If, as is said, that ‘the military always fights the last war’, then I would bet bucks that spec ops people are taking care of this right now....fighting to stop oil well fires before they can start. I have no evidence/documentation for this; it merely seems likely. It's what I would do. After all, there is and will continue to be a media blackout of everything the bosses do not want us to see. Re your "US$ deflates to compete against the yen": From everything I read, the situation is exactly opposite: the Japanese want to devalue the yen against the dollar. The dollar will dominate; the other currencies will compete against each other. Foreigners’ US$ assets will continue to be held to pay for oil.

For good or ill, that is how I view it, FWIW. I'm not particularly optimistic or pessimistic, and I don't regard myself as contrarian; I merely want to see things clearly. I would prefer to see POG rise ‘long term’, but right now, I view that prospect as doubtful We shall see. As Another put it: "Time will prove all things".

Best of luck to you all; I am grateful for your thoughts.

Clint H(No Subject)#9719102/09/03; 15:26:20

These are rhetorical questions.
If the USA/UK threw in the towel right now and withdrew all troops, would we still be attacked?
Would the world be better off?
Would the US $ still collapse?
Would gold still increase in value compared to the $?

The gold coins I have now will still be around in 100 years. The events of 2003 will be part of history. The gold coins I have now will help my family make a transition into the world that exists in 100 years.

Whatever your political gold.

Cometose@Whitehills#9719202/09/03; 15:46:01

To the Ladies and Gentlemen of this Forum:

For those of you who view my latest tirade as a political attack on the U S , I humbly apologise.

I LOVE THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA; I also treasure and honor the blood of men and women who over the centuries gave their lives and blood and sacred honor, to secure for me the BLESSINGS OF LIBERTY.....that were secured in
the Delcaration of Independence and the Constitution ....

The purpose for which this nation was founded was and is Spiritual ......and in 10 years the purpose will remain whether we have $30 oil or $8 oil ...

Whitehills : I attack evil and the love of money (the root of all evil) from which proceedeth greed that causes people to be blind and stupid....Real power is not intimidated nor is it easily provoked....Real power proceedeth from love .....not greed or money.... Look at the fruit and you will know what kind of tree you are looking at.

I have been conned enough to know when I am being had...
I am sorry , I don't fit into your frame . I am afraid that you misapprehended what you read when you read what I wrote.


a nation of oneReply to sector (02/09/03; 08:09:13MT - msg#: 97160)#9719302/09/03; 16:00:35

Regarding: "The French, the Germans and now the Russians have apparently formed a new "Coalition" aligned AGAINST the US and the UK."

---Before this there was no real possibility that significant warring action would occur within the U.S. borders, just terrorism, which typically does not target an enemy's ability to wage war, but concentrates on vengeance and retribution. Germany, France, and Russia, however, not only do have the ability to make warring incursions into the mainland United States, but they know very well how to attack and destroy an enemy nation's ability to wage war. Unlike the Second World War, in which there was no real likelyhood that the Nazis would ever have succeeded in conquering any but a very small part of the U.S., these three nations now combined together do actually pose a real warring potential to the U.S. mainland, not in terms of troops and materiel necessarily, but as a consequence of the possible use of their missles and other long range weapons. In other words, this really is bad news. Moreover, the fact that these three nations have joined forces to oppose the United States suggests that -at least in the extent to which the American descendents from those countries may be concerned- U.S. foreign policy is assuming a form that is not in the American people's primary interst.

1340ccOptions#9719402/09/03; 16:01:34

Back in the late 50's early 60's I lived with my grandparents. True Ozark hillbillies. It was a given on Sat. night we watched the wraslin’ show from the Shrine Mosque in Springfield,Mo. The only time I ever heard my grandmother cuss was when Gorgeous George was fightin’ cuss we KNEW he fought dirty. They had the option to change to one of the other two channels or watch. They didn't change channels even thought they both were mad as wet hens.

We here have the option to read post by those we know are idiots or scroll (do not change channels) on down. But just think of all the fun ya'll miss if you didn't read them!

I think one thing we all have in common ,even if we don't want to think we are related to knuckle draggin’ primates is we all love GOLD. And I really believe most of us love the USA right or wrong. Notice I said nothing about loving the PTB.

Let's just be grateful that USAGOLD lets us have a little lee way. I have had on more than one occasion someone call me the "B" (rhymes with witch) word. I said ‘Thank you very much. I have worked very hard for the recognition". Let's give those we don't agree with all the recognition they deserve. Scroll on down.

ToolieDuncanIdaho#9719502/09/03; 16:24:02

Dear Mr. Idaho

I take your point. I and many others use the words deflate, devalue, inflate too carelessly. Maybe we should make a habit of saying Monetary inflation, Wage inflation, Price Inflation, etc. I have read to much Greenspanspeak perhaps. Permit me to try again.

Everyone around here reads each others mind, didn't you know that?

I said in a previous message; with clarifications in parenthesis( )

Toolie Says; The Yen deflates (IN VALUE) to enable it to compete with China. The Dollar deflates (IN VALUE) to enable it to compete with the Yen. The Euro deflates (IN VALUE) to compete with the Dollar.
One day soon, a central banker in China is to going trip over a pile of Dollars and demand that they be removed.


Keep it coming my friend, If I'm wrong, I want to know!

a nation of oneQuestion for DuncanIdaho (02/09/03; 10:02:23MT - msg#: 97166)#9719602/09/03; 16:34:27

You say: "Although I hesitate to do so, I offer my own, FWIW. This is based based on my own reading/research for "truth"/"reality". I am grateful to all who further my education, here at the Forum and elsewhere. DYODD, of course."

I ask: The term FWIW I am familiar with. When I see birds sitting on tree limbs, I know they must have FWIW there. But the word 'DYODD' is new to me. What does it mean? Discard Your Old Dirty Dollars? Drop Your Only Dad's Drumstick? Distill Yesterday's Oily Daily Dew? What?

sector@silvercollector I was painting#9719702/09/03; 16:36:35 I missed your earlier reply regarding Iraq

If I were dubya I'd be looking for an exit plan rather than face an ignominious policy debacle.

What better way than to have FR/GR/RU team up to muscle Iraq into "Submission" with blue hats and inspectors. Just in time!

But Rummy has to ACT really pissed off soz everybody will believe it.

Watch for Russia Germany and France to send some more "Peacekeepers" -- say 30,000 peacekeepers not to Baghdad but to Mosul, Kirkuk and
Al Basra.

Bush has painted himself into a corner and wants out.

There doesn't seem to me to be any way the US will start a war with not only the LACK of a coalition but the active obstruction of NATO members.

Oh...yeah...then there's the Middle Easterners. Saudis want ALL US military out after the Iraq thingy.

That may just be next week.

Bush will spin things so it appears that HE put the French coalition together.

Boy aren't we glad the President was so war...Bush is brilliant!

AristotleWeighing in on a light issue#9719802/09/03; 16:53:18

Cometose, you mentioned this oft repeated phrase in your response to White Hills, and it gives me the perfect chance to get this off my chest. The phrase in question is--
"Money is the root of all evil."

No way, José! That's like saying "guns kill people" when the truth of the matter is "people kill people."

The development of money is one of mankind's most fascinating and useful accomplishments. A more appropriate phrase would try to convey the sentiment that goes something like this: while money is a very fine thing, it is through dual MISUNDERSTANDING and MISAPPLICATION of money that much evil is fertilized at its root.

As more people awaken and add vital Gold savings to bolster their monetary repertoire, the less likely they are to add to the desperate ranks of the world's victims, in turn shrinking the breeding ground for new evil.

Money. **Use** it or lose it.
Gold. Get you some, good for a lifetime. --- Aristotle

Gandalf the WhiteAn ANSWER for Sir ANOO !! (in case Sir D of ID is away) #9719902/09/03; 17:00:39

a nation of one (02/09/03; 16:34:27MT - msg#: 97196)
Question for DuncanIdaho
DYODD is short for:
"Do Your Own Due Diligence"

bugsFuture of Money?#9720002/09/03; 17:04:58


I ran across this today and thought it might be of interest? A few futurist/technology type people are gathering later this year in Denver to discuss, collaborate on new technology for "future" money (anonymous smart cards, etc).

Some of the related news articles, specifically the initial rollout of "Moneo" in France, and community currency efforts in Japan, are curious.


Peanuts in Japan:,7369,807177,00.html

Please excuse me if this isn't directly on topic.

ToolieKey word LOVE @ Aristotle#9720102/09/03; 17:06:05

The LOVE of money is root of all evil.

Key word LOVE.

Old YellerGold#9720202/09/03; 17:12:15

Is a political metal,better get used to it,it will do
nothing but intensify now.

Politicians of both stripes will stop at nothing to
continue the charade of American economic superiority.

Some of us are very tired of this,and get a bit impatient.

Not unlike GWB at present.

We advocate truth and economic freedom for all,he advocates
deception and death to those against him.

Unfortunately,it appears as if we're on the wrong side of his rather ambiguous fence.

It's all a little unnerving at present.

otish mountainTownCrier post # 97158#9720302/09/03; 17:12:48

From the link, the last sentence tells us much.

"The three decades since President Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard is still the anomaly in three millennia of monetary history".

Standing high atop a mountain looking down on time, 3000 years of history shows the important role of gold in monetary matters. Not so these last 30 years, an entity has sucessfully removed gold and replaced it with fiat currency to fill the role as the final arbitrator. An Anomaly.

And now to the present, we witness much sabre rattling and much tension with nations, but underneth this noise the causes are inbalances in the world's monetary structures.

Gold is awakening now to re-assert it's role as the lynch pin for the world's monetary functions.

These last 30 years represent more than 50% of my life time, raised on western thought and now learning through
Another/FOA that this period in time is just an anomaly in monetary history.

AristotleToolie, thanks for covering the bases, but I think my position holds#9720402/09/03; 17:17:41

Let's look at it in other words:

"The love of a great invention is the root of all evil." (REALLY???!)

I'm not convinced that this requires any changes from my previous offering, but I'd be happy to entertain any further thoughts you might want to provide.

Gold. Get you some. --- Ari

Belgian@ Knotakare#9720502/09/03; 17:35:46

Please Sir, don't overreact or panic. Euroland will "never" refuse anyone who is threathened politically and yes even economically. I don't see why Americans should be excluded from this. At present, the US/Euroland are *both* experiencing some *** dramatic *** changes. A re-distribution of power-relations within a global context.
Since this is not a political forum... we keep it at the currency, oil, Gold implications that will play a decisive role in the ongoing (politico-economical) process. The radical actions (unilateralism) of the Bush-administration are simply fastening the process that would happen anyway.

Euroland is simply trying to cool down the Pax Americana ambitions as to avoid a global heating (escalation), wich is of no interest to anybody.

Nuclear threaths are still deterrents and will cool, eventual, escalation spikes. Just concentrate on the euro - dollar exchange rate...the oil for euro possibility...Free Gold and a detoriating economical environment.

Good night from Euroland.

mikalRe: Fuel cell info ("Necessity is the mother of invention")#9720602/09/03; 17:37:20

I have been reading the posts on fuel cells and believe this area is little understood and appreciated. Partially due to media censorship and disinformation and to being stigmatized as impractical or wacky. Not an easy science to delineate to the layman either. And shunned by academia and their coterie of scientists, professors and public relations pimps.
Silver fuel cells connected by gold circuitry, is sparking the beginning act in the full drama of alternative science progress.
Thanks to the fine posters and keep up the excellent work.

ToolieAristotle#9720702/09/03; 17:44:24

Perhaps it will be gold that paves our way through the times ahead. But it will not be the love of it!

There is a difference SIR. The distinction is the difference.

Most humbly yours,


Cometose@Aristotle#9720802/09/03; 17:52:53

I contend that the matter because of its spritual nature is at the core of the pyramid moving machinations going on globally of which the dollar hegemony is part.....

I'll stand by my statement which was penned 2000 years ago , by a man who in his own era was confronted in the realm of the spiritual currency of that day and went blind and then had his physical and spiritual eyes opened and chose and gave everything he had from that point on to serve the new currency......His name was Paul and in :I Timothy 1 verse 6 come the words that he wrote. Words that preceeded us by 2 millenia years and will live forever....

For the Love of Money is the ROOT of all EVIL.

silvercollectorThe Non-Alliance#9720902/09/03; 17:57:30

Great chat today; Cometose, I think you are very warm!

Let's boil down some fundamentals. US and Britain are hurting for oil but what hurts more is they cannot pay $30+ per barrel. Their economies stagnant with oil at that level.

This may be the 'driving force' of the Iraq rhetoric.

We have F,G,R & C (and presumably) others who want cheaper than $30 oil of course but alas with the contractual ties that we now know of, want Iraqi oil secure in either Iraq's hands or their's. The point being not in the hands of the US.

So is a deal being cut with Hussein? Back off this WMD nonsense, admit the possession of such, eliminate said, we (F,G,R,C) in turn protect your oil interests and all the while we get the 'monkey' of your back. Would Hussein agree to such a deal?

The troops (F,G,R,C) roll in under pretenses of the 'advanced' UN weapon inspection process, the weapons are discovered and destroyed and in a few months oil begins to flow. Perhaps even the UN sanction issue is modified and/or cancelled.

I imagine looking at this from the Iraqi point-of-view; they preserve their oil and benefit in a multitude of ways with its revenue.

Maybe this deal is not being cut with Hussein, I wonder if the Iraqi PTB have designed such a sting w/o the man.

We watch together, the timeline for this matter is oh so short!

Cometose@Aristotle#9721002/09/03; 18:13:43

Correct Quote is

I Timothy 6:10

/ I need to get some better reading glasses.

Cometose@Aristotle#9721102/09/03; 18:27:20

I fully intend to take your often repeated advice and
thank you for the continual encouragement..

to get me some .....



sstinsDepending on your version...1 TIM 6:10#9721202/09/03; 19:23:35

"For the love of money is a root of (all kinds) of evil. Some people, eager for money, have wandered from the faith and pierced themselves with many griefs."
DoubleEagle1340cc#9721302/09/03; 19:43:44

I live six blocks from the Shrine Mosque, and will drive by it tonight on my way to work. Small world we live in, eh? Always neat to see a mention of home on a board accessed by so many people from all over the world.


Dollar BillIs it a full moon?#9721402/09/03; 20:17:46

Just wondering.
Cometose@sstins#9721502/09/03; 20:40:50

When the GODBREATHED WORD was given (II Tim 3:16) in conjunction with Holy men of GOD Speaking as they were moved by the HOLY SPIRIT (II Peter 1:21) before the KING James version (1611) which was partiallly derived from STEPHENS GREEK TEXT which came from the original GREEK MANUSCRIPTS there was gold....and golden original manuscripts......before versions......I wager that the original ....stated fOR THE lOVE oF mONEY IS THE rOOT oF aLL eVIL(people who follow that path are lead to a dark door). These words are either golden and difinitively the truth and therefore a standard for measuring much of the nonsense that goes on in the world or they are not.In our navigating these waters, I find it incredibly valuable having a standard to discern truth from error and within which we may weigh(measure) the actions of men in their dealings.
Daniel DruffMikal#9721602/09/03; 20:46:53

Necessity is the mother of invention

Do you seriously think that there's something to this fuel cell business? Can't they make it work without using up more silver? It's bad enough that it's being consumed for casual and frivolous photography. Silver, in my opinion, is too valuable to be used in anything other than in the area of medicine. Again, the Frivolous Use Tax would be imposed in the Druff Administration.
Mikal (02/09/03; 17:37:20MT - msg#: 97206)
Silver fuel cells connected by gold circuitry, is sparking the beginning act in the full drama of alternative science progress.

Daniel DruffCometose#9721702/09/03; 20:54:18

The love of money

"... I find it incredibly valuable having a standard to discern truth from error and within which we may weigh(measure) the actions of men in their dealings."

Excuse me, but why on earth would you want to do that? "...weigh (measure) the actions of men in their dealings."

Thank you

steadyfuel cells#9721802/09/03; 21:00:50

will silver be money?
sstins@Cometose #9721902/09/03; 21:06:12

I am in complete agreement as to the intended message of Paul as it relates to man and the love of money. In addition I agree that the standard in determining right and wrong may be found in the word. Howerver, knowning man's irresistable compulsion to wager on His Word, He found it necessary to...

Rev. 22:18 I warn everyone who hears the words of the prophecy of this book: If anyone adds anything to them, God will add to him the plagues described in this book. 19 And if anyone takes words away from this book of prophecy, God will take away from him his share in the tree of life and in the holy city, which are described in this book.

Last off topic post by me.

Gold now up $2.10

Dollar BillTrojan#9722002/09/03; 21:08:41

Thank you for your Ratville link, however, the analysis
SEEMS close, but the analysis is flawed and the writers that he quotes are not informed enough.
The euro situation is much more complex, the central bankers view this more responsibly than the writers would guess, opec countries, the ones that are actually supporting this Iraq war, are not interested in having thier military, the US, destroyed by a dollar collapse, this is not a game like the Milton Bradley Risk game, the lesser politicians have thier view, but the central bankers and the BIS and the GATT and IMF fellows know this a deadly serious situation and they are trying for stability and
we should hope they are successful.
Dont forget how this all came about. The gold system is flawed. The cold war was deadly real. The post cold war was
one of trying to help the communist system join the world economy and prevent even MORE enemy states.
The present system is flawed and central bankers knew it already. Human nature is involved. We cannot help but make mistakes. Human suffering is at stake, and reasonable men are trying to keep it stable in spite of the various
challenges. Yes the US has an advantage. Dont forget the cold war and I reccomend not reading guys that dont see how this all came about.

mikal@Dan Druff#9722102/09/03; 21:12:49

Yes, silver is medicine, but not only in a narrow sense of the word.
Silver is money for alleviating hunger, strife and broken homes.
Silver is art for soothing and inspiring the spirit.
Silver is medicine for healing the planet- piercing the heart of the oil cyclops, replacing destructive petrochemical and industrial applications and restoring health and natural vitality to animal, plant and mineral life.

KagalaskaSteady msg# 97218#9722202/09/03; 21:28:09

Fuel cells are a few years out. A quick speed read of EACH page found no mention of SILVER,with the exception of Silver Springs MD,including a site search(with their search engine). Platinum is the metal of choice for fuel cells, however in the fullness of time silver's unique properties( supply/price)will be harnessed for yet another use(and a few more along the way). Until then we must await a delivery problem or another attempt at a market corner.-Kagalaska Gold today silver the next.
Dollar BillSector#9722302/09/03; 21:28:36

Please dont go to DEBKA.COM and read or bring thier info here. ALL thier news is a total fabrication.
ALL of it.
I dont know who hosts that site, or why they think they should waste thier time lying, but that is ALL that they do.

DracoHere we go.....#9722402/09/03; 21:29:18

Asian markets are now open including China. Gold is up $2.00+. This will be a very "interesting" week in the gold pits. It won't surprise me if they try to shake-out some more weak hands. Be strong - it could be a rough ride. We may get one more chance to buy the dips. IF we do,don't wait, it won't last long.
EagleOneDollar Bill#9722502/09/03; 21:41:50

The next full moon will be on the 16th. As we all are aware, some astrology types have related full and new moons to major reversals in gold and silver prices. Turns out that the dark nights before and after the new moon are favored times of our stealth fighters and bombers to attack as they did in Bagdad. Next new moon March 2nd.


Daniel DruffMikal#9722602/09/03; 21:42:02

"Yes, silver is medicine, but not only in a narrow sense of the word"

Nicely put.

Thank you

Daniel Druffsstins#9722702/09/03; 21:46:50


"Rev. 22:18 I warn everyone who hears the words of the prophecy of this book: If anyone adds anything to them, God will add to him the plagues described in this book. 19 And if anyone takes words away from this book of prophecy, God will take away from him his share in the tree of life and in the holy city, which are described in this book."
Dollar BillSector#9722802/09/03; 21:49:52

I regret writing that last post to you.
For a few years, starting at that millenium bug scare site, hosted by I forget, people have posted Debka news on forums I have been on. I have found MANY complete fabrications presented as fact by the debka guys. Even when the stories
have some connection with fact, they are not trustworthy.
That site is like a military national enquirer. Sample, YES Tom Cruise had a drink at that bar, but N.E. will add a whole story that is false and for what reason?
Same with debka, only they use non celebrity issues.
I myself didnt catch on for a while. I just wanted to alert you so you wouldnt take as long as I did to see it.
Best to you.

1340ccSmall world#9722902/09/03; 21:50:46

It is a small world and getting smaller everyday. A friend I house sit for in Spfd. a couple of times a year tried to get me to put my money in real estate. Thank goodness I didn't. Gold and Silver have been very good to me. And I don't have to collect rent or fix plumbing!
KagalaskaDollar Bill msg#97223#9723002/09/03; 21:52:10

Your assumption that the Debkafile news site is all fabricated is incorrect. Several of their stories ie: NMCB74 lengthening runways in Northern Iraq(Jan 27 2003) was spot on(I personaly know several SEABEES(Chiefs and above) and they have confirmed it to me, and several stories run on the site have shown up in the mainstream/controled press days if not weeks later. I am sure that Debka like all news outlets are being used for disinformation/pysops. Unfortunatly I, being just a humble joe6pack lack the means to sort the nuggets of fact from the fictional filler. And the filler serves a purpose just depends WHAT SIDE YOU ARE ON.--Semper-FI Kagalaska
AristotleToolie and especially Cometose #: 97208#9723102/09/03; 22:00:33

In case my finer polish was a completely lost effort, perhaps I'll abandon that important point for now and attempt to make a little headway with this alternate presentation in light of your latest responses.

Please appreciate the difference between these two deliveries:

#1) "...the love of MONEY is the root of all evil."
(which is the generally accepted version)


#2) "...the love of GOLD is the root of all evil."

Version number two seems clear enough that if Gold is what was meant, surely Gold is what would have been written. Doesn't it impress you that the more *elaborate* word, money, was the one used? It's because there is a HUGE difference between Gold and money; and getting back to my original point today, it is the misunderstanding and misapplication of this money (versus Gold) issue that fertilizes much evil at its root.

If you won't believe me at my word (and you shouldn't) then please give it many years of your own deep thought and study. Or if you want a quick second opinion from a reputable source, I have a firm suspicion that FOA would back me up if he were willing to chime in. In his absence, a word from the well-versed Belgian or Miner49er would be as good as Gold. If it comes about that they disagree with me, I'll definitely hasten to reevaluate my view on the matter, so great is my opinion of and respect for their political and monetary scholarship.

Money. USE it or lose it.
Gold. Get you some, good for a lifetime. --- Aristotle

Cometose@Daniel Druff#9723202/09/03; 22:01:34

Knowing if Leaders are sold out to power and or MONEY gives a barometer of what they are capable of ....
Knowing what leaders are capable of may be a barometer for whether we have war or not
Whether we have war or not may be a predictive determinant of the Price of GOLD.

Measuring (weighing) the actions of men ......

because of lying cheating and stealing....don't let them steal from you ( as in the lying cheating stealing monkeys on Wall St and the sold out media that read the scripts they are given and promote air lining their pockets with your money when you buy their crap and it goes to zero..lying about the future direction of the economy....
bringing fraudulent reports etc etc etc. It's called preservation of Capital ....

to protect yourself and your family , plan etc for any eventuality ...Ruthless men are capable of anything...which may result in any eventuality I don't want to imagine.

I don't want my kids looking at me one day in the future and saying DAD , why didn't you prepare for this...I am the eyes and ears for my family ......until they grow into their own eyes and ears so they can watch out for themselves.

Black BladeGold war: bullion-market proponents and detractors exchange views#9723302/09/03; 22:03:27


The rush to gold is "the continuation of the speculative frenzy that surrounds anything that is going up when other assets are dropping," scoffs Gary Schatsky, a financial planner in New York. "The same people who threw money at technology stocks are now looking at gold. And they're also looking at real estate," he adds, urging a diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and cash. "If someone wants to add a little bit of hard commodities like gold, that would be fine," Schatsky says. "But keep it small - no more than one per cent or two per cent at the most - because commodities are volatile, and there tends to be a lack of liquidity."

Black Blade: Yeah right, and the millions who are watching their retirement dreams vaporized because Schatsky and his ilk have robbed them blind with myths about throwing caution to the wind by buying stocks and bonds while scooping up hefty commissions and kickbacks. These Wall Street charlatans like Schatsky just don't get it - it's about wealth preservation and portfolio insurance, not gambling on stocks.

Black BladeDEBKA Files#9723402/09/03; 22:17:39

I never follow the DEBKA site, as I never have found much credible reporting on the site. They are an Israeli misinformation site and closer to the National Inquirer as a source of credible information. They lost me on occasion with stories such as "extraterrestrial aliens help US troops" and a "massive Chinese military invasion" of Afghanistan in combat with US forces during the fight with the Taliban. I would consider them with as much credibility as I would Al Jazeera (Nat. Inquirer, the Globe, etc.) and whenever I see them even mentioned I don't waste my time as I simply skip past any post that contains the word (acronym?) DEBKA.

- Black Blade

Daniel DruffGold in Japan#9723502/09/03; 22:30:10

It looks firm tonight.

Thank you

Black BladeGold Fever Hits The Markets#9723602/09/03; 22:41:09


But even if this premium were removed, gold would still be trading at $US350 to $US360 an ounce, traders argue, with the prospect that it could top $US400 an ounce in coming weeks. The weak greenback and anaemic economic growth in the US are propelling gold higher. This is set against the backdrop of renewed economic uncertainty, especially with interest rates in both the US and Japan at record low levels. And there is little evidence of any success in rekindling growth as China has progressively cornered much of the world's low-end manufacturing industry, exporting deflation in the process. Gold's renewed lustre comes as the "cult of equities" of the 1990s is finally at an end. Globally, funds have been fleeing equities for some time, especially in the US, as investors withdraw money from mutual funds. This shift of money has been most notable in North America.

And, as is usually the case with gold, the gains have been overlaid with a series of global economic concerns, such as the rising tide of government deficits and the anaemic economic outlook as the excesses of the late 1990s are worked out of the system. "The plunge in the value of the dollar relative to gold is the biggest monetary policy story of the past two decades," says Ken Landon of Deutsche Bank. "The Greenspan era of stable and falling rates of inflation is over." Mr Landon argues that the gold price surge is signalling a new era of stagflation in the US. However, it may be too early to make this call, since inflation in most big economies is muted as they grapple with the deflationary pressures exported by China.

Black Blade: Not much of a war premium. However the US dollar weakness should continue and any inflation as the Fed pumps in more currency, the POG will kick up much higher.

Black BladeJump On Board, Gold's Bull Run Is Just Beginning#9723702/09/03; 22:55:58


Gold has entered a brand new long-term bull market that is still in its infancy. All births are preceded and accompanied by pain. Last week's sharp rise up to $386 is not just another bear-market spike; it is only the first wisp of escaping steam from the latent power inside a golden pressure cooker about to blow its lid. A complete change is under way in the global investment attitude to precious metals as an essential "protection element" of portfolio management. The reserves of the world's leading central banks are mostly in dollars. Now the geniuses who auctioned gold at under $280 are buying it back at higher prices to add protection to their depreciating dollar reserves. While on the subject of bull markets, let me contradict another widely held fallacy: that gold is only for trading. Once again this is a blinkered, half-baked hypothesis. What should be stated is that bear markets are for trading. Get into the rallies and out again. One does not invest in a long-term bear market to lose money on falling share prices. Investing should be undertaken only in a bull market - get in and go for the ride. Gold is in a long-term bull market. It is now an investment product, not a trading vehicle. Global equity markets are in long-term bear markets. It is equities that should be traded, not gold. Gold shares have been dominated by a corrective period during the past few weeks. This is just a minor breather as a precursor to the next upward surge to well above 400, coupled with a powerful charge in gold shares. My advice is to ignore all the doomsayers and ensure that you are invested in, not trading, this long-term gold bull's headlong charge.

Black Blade: Sounds reasonable as equities markets are likely to be in a long-term bear market lasting for years as the US dollar weakens, debt rises, and energy costs remain high. Shares are for trading and precious metals are for accumulating as portfolio insurance and wealth preservation. Not much opportunity in equities for the next few years (except very selective shares) unless for shorting opportunities.

AristotleDollar Bill, I saw your #: 97220 to Trojan#9723802/09/03; 22:58:34

Let's clear up this most important matter first and foremost. You said, "this is not a game like the Milton Bradley Risk game..."

RISK is the domain of Parker Brothers, affiliated with Hasbro. Milton Bradley's claim to fame, among others, is the game of Life, which I have and continue to enjoy in its original form.

Moving on to minutia, let's try not to be too quick to dismiss commentaries like the one offered by W. Clark. You indicated that the writers he quotes don't see the whole picture, but isn't it fair to say that through the brief window of commentary found on the internet or elsewhere it is impossible to fully judge the depth of a man's mind and comprehension? Unless, of course, a laundry list of elementary errors belie all want of substance.

In other words, if the only thing you ever saw from a guy (like me) were the words "Gold. Get you some," please don't be so hasty as to think from my simplistic post that I didn't comprehend more of the big picture than I'm actually revealing anywhere at any time. If, on the other hand, I said, "Gold, take it or leave it, it's all the same" you could rightfully dismiss me as a flake for offering really bad advice and showing anti-wisdom.

Your pal, Ari. Gold. Get you some.

aussieClark's Essay#9723902/09/03; 23:10:53

Thanks Trojan for the site on Clark's essay, - I've printed it out for bedside reading tonight, - so much to comprehend that I thought it would be better in hard copy. The postings and sites that are found on this board are quite incredible and my thanks to all the posters, - don't know where you all find the time to do the research, but it is much appreciated.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.In bookstores it retails for $14.95. But you know the author! Get it here for $5.95#9724002/09/03; 23:34:08

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Black BladeCash-strapped fund managers browse but can't buy #9724102/09/03; 23:41:35


Trouble is, managers are short on cash to buy stocks in the U.S. -- or anywhere, for that matter. With cash on hand averaging just 4.8 percent and shareholders fleeing for the perceived safety of bonds and money markets, equity-fund managers hoping for a shopping spree can look but not touch. "Managers are sure the market is cheap, but cash is not coming in," Sarah Franks, a Merrill strategy analyst, said about the firm's monthly polling of more than 70 managers, released Tuesday. "It's hard to shop for bargains when you don't have anything in your wallet." A global liquidity crunch suggests that an upturn in U.S. stock prices is unlikely, Franks said, regardless of fund managers' optimism. Previous buy signals have hinged on managers believing equities are attractive at the same time they hold plenty of cash, she added. Managers usually reserve a modest amount of cash in their portfolios for opportunistic bargain hunting and, importantly, to handle shareholder redemptions without being forced to unload securities. Cash positions among funds typically hover closer to 6 percent, Franks explained, and reached 7.5 percent in October 2001 just prior to a short-lived but powerful rally. Comparable conditions were present last October as well, she observed, with similarly positive results. Supporting evidence also indicates that such bullish circumstances don't exist now.

Black Blade: Interesting and I tend to agree. There are more and more sellers in this bear market. Fund managers need to keep enough cash on hand for redemptions. There is reason why Wall Street is firing brokers and bankers by the thousands and why they are screaming, begging, and pleading for investors to buy stocks. Just watch the financial infomercials tomorrow and watch them beg and plead. It's actually quite funny as they act like insurance or used car salesmen. Wall Street is going down hard and we get to watch the "entertainment" as there are fewer Lemmings to lead over the cliff.

(sorry no link)

YGMOff Topic....BUT!#9724202/09/03; 23:56:25

With all the oil talk that takes place here somebody should review Tom Beardon and fiends Scaler Energy Patent....
Long article on it and fisthand examination of a working model (At Rumor Mill News)...The future is changing rapidly and not just for the worse .....YGM.

GratefulForGoldThe Love of Money (or Gold)....#972432/10/03; 00:32:26

I have been meaning to post to simply say "hello" and let the fine knights and ladies here at the castle know that I continue reading your words and appreciate them all. Thank you.

The recent discussion on Love of Money being the root of all evil has me pondering. I don't read the bible so I may be terribly naive in my interpretation of this phrase.

I believe love should be reserved for life and spirit. I include spirit because, perhaps, "the love of God" (or, rather, the love FOR God) is a uniquely individual sentiment that cannot be man-handled. It is an inner, untouchable quality. Love for that which requires nurturing, is fragile, unique and vital.

The love of money often creates a person who is unable to love anyone or anything else -- a person who values it above and beyond, and chooses it over, the infinite variety of life's expressions. The love of money limits the perceptions and senses, shutting out the many joys and experiences of life. It creates false values. At the time the bible was written, was not gold money?

Gold is a cold, hard metal. Rare, yes; a store of value, yes; and many things that men's minds have attributed to it. But, it is a thing, and as such should not be loved. Respected, yes. Valued, yes. Honored, even.

The principles of gold (attributed to it by man) may be the saving grace of man's interactions on a financial or economic level ... but it can never replace the human qualities for which it stands. Honesty and integrity have to be at the core of human nature in order to attribute such qualities to gold. Yet, gold most often serves the inhumane masters who own the most of it ... so gold could be considered a whore.

So, my conclusion is that the LOVE of MONEY or GOLD is the root of all evil. I can appreciate and be grateful for the store of value which gold provides me. I can honor and respect the principles governing man's interactions and transactions that gold tempers. But, never, will I love it.

Operative@GratefulForGold#972442/10/03; 01:21:22

Enjoyed your post, some good expressions well said.

One comment on your writing this:
"I believe love should be reserved for life and spirit. I include spirit because, perhaps, "the love
of God" (or, rather, the love FOR God) is a uniquely individual sentiment that cannot be
man-handled. It is an inner, untouchable quality. Love for that which requires nurturing, is
fragile, unique and vital."

My 2 cents: The love for God is most definite a unique and personal experience. The love OF God, the best I see it is simply uncomprehensible, at least in this lifetime.

Good Evening to you,

CoBra(too)France and Belgium Veto Missile Aid to Turkey#972452/10/03; 02:26:45,&s2=ad_right1_windex&tp=ad_topright_topworld&refer=topworld&

while Germany's stance remains unclear before a NATO Meeting this morning.

The rift among the NATO allies and the USA and Europe deepens in the forefront of War with Iraq. Meantime the french/german anti war axis is also seen supported by Russia (Putin will meet Chiraq today after yesterday's visit with Schröder) and China.

The Oil Issue seems to get more messy with the day.

Steer clear of the Clash of Western Civilisation and protect yours to your best ability. Mark BB's sage words and acquire as much Gold as you comfortably can. cb2

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?#972462/10/03; 02:34:47

purchasing power

Would you invest in a stock that graphed like this?

Probably not. But that is precisely what you have done if you own
stocks, bonds, cds, money markets or anything denominated in U.S.

Sooner or later gold is going to react strongly to this simple dynamic:

The dollar has been continuously devalued without stop for the past 57 years. It has
not appreciated against goods and services once -- not even once -- in that entire time period.
There are periods when this policy has not been fully reflected in the price of gold.

Is "Now" one of them? "Is Now the Right Time for Gold?"

If you've received your initial information packet from us, you qualify to
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Jonathan Kosares Ext 110

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TownCrierGold investing#9724702/10/03; 03:16:53

Dubai, 10 Feb 2003 -- Gulf-based investors, who have an aversion to gold, will not be surprised to read that they have lost out by not dabbling in the yellow metal.

The FTSE 100 Index, having dropped 25 per cent in 2002, was at the end of another drubbing in January which saw almost 10 per cent wiped off the value of the market. Investors would have seen a 35 per cent diminution in their portfolio if they had gone down this road, all this in the space of 13 months.

Obversely, if that money had been invested in gold then there would have been a completely different story and happy punters rewarded with a 35 per cent gain over the same time span.

Interestingly, the gold investor would have more than twice as much now as the equity investor. $10,000 invested in gold would be worth $13,500 whereas the same balance in the FTSE would fetch $6,500.

...In the short-term, there seems no end to this feverish trading...

It is somewhat mystifying how the world's economic powerhouse has lost focus and seems to be drifting from one financial disaster to another. Could it be there is a new world order beginning to form with the dollar losing its pre-eminence, fifty years after taking over the mantle from sterling?

------(article at url)------

Believe it or not, after that midpoint comment, the writer of this article makes these concluding remarks: "There is no doubt that both a high gold price and low dollar are temporary blips on the financial landscape. Before rushing out and joining the crowd, remember that all the factors that are currently pushing gold to an artificially high level can also work the other way."

Does anything about the nearby chart of the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar suggest to you that a lowering dollar should in any way be seen as merely a temporary blip on the financial landscape? Seems to me more like a feature. And as any serious student of the gold market would know, gold is not at an artificial high as this article writer would have you believe in the end, but rather, gold is still effectively languishing at artificial (derivative market) lows. That is to say, it is still a very attractive bargain at current prices, all things fairly considered.

Call USAGOLD-Centennial today to discuss a diversification strategy that's right for you.


Black BladeMarket Indicators#9724802/10/03; 03:20:49

US market futures are sharply lower (DOW -87, Nasdaq -15, S&P -10), Gold up $2.00, USD marginally higher, oil is over $35/bbl (+$0.90) and NatGas over $6 (Prices at the link are scewed up). The big news is that NATO members Germany, France, and Belgium will veto protection for NATO member Turkey in the event of war splitting the treaty organization. Of course NATO is irrelevant since the demise of the Soviet Union. It should get quite "interesting" at the opening bell in NY.

- Black Blade

Black BladeCorrection #9724902/10/03; 03:24:56

It appears that the other US market index futures data are in error. The indices are actually higher and above "fair value". The rest of the data appear to be correct. Still could get entertaining to watch Wall Street scramble at the open.

- Black Blade

TownCrierThe Associate Press offers this view on gold#9725002/10/03; 03:31:19

February 10, 2003

The price of gold surged late last month to a six-year high, propelled by fears of a looming showdown with Iraq and the weakness of alternative investment havens such as stocks and the U.S. dollar.

Gold rose more than 14 percent between November and late January. It's likely to rise further.

"It's been a pretty spectacular rise," said Kelvin Williams, executive director of the world's second-largest gold mining company, AngloGold Ltd. of South Africa.

Gold has increased steadily in value since mid-2001, and the growth has accelerated in recent weeks without showing any sign of flagging.

"The trend may well be more on the upside than the down," said Philip Newman, an analyst at the precious metals consultancy Gold Fields Mineral Services Ltd.

------(article at url)------

Even here (though not excerpted), the article makes much of the possible war on Iraq to explain the rise of gold. What they fail to mention or recognize is that gold had established its upward trend well before this Iraqi business was news. As it is, and as it has been pointed out by many astute analysts, tensions with Iraq are simply a politically correct excuse for the rise of gold, helping to mask a very troubled dollar being fundamentally challenged by the euro.

See your way clear to a prudent diversification in gold. The staff at USAGOLD-Centennial will be happy to help you stake your claim in the right quantity of gold for your individual financial circumstances. Call them today.


BelgianArabian oil.....>>> US$......>>> Gold......>>> euro#972512/10/03; 03:34:35

Most of us, overhere, do remember the seventies and eighties...extreme turbulences of Oil / US$ / Gold.
1970 > 1980 was a decade where a lot of ATH (all time highs) existed. POO=40$ - POG=850$ - US$=2 €. Thirty years ago we had a very similar grim athmosphere as at present.

But things evolved over those past 3 decades with one constant : The US-dollar's "pressure" on *GOLD* AND *ARABIAN OIL* ! Repeat: Pressure (and containment).

Today, that pressure is as much, as strong, as war, occupation, regime-change, massive intervention/interference...etc ! Shortly, more building up of extremism...from all sides.

This is as a result from what has been building up during the past 3 decades : The dollar having conquered (contained) Gold...the dollar being in control of cheap Arabian other dollar-reservecurrency, competitor.

But during those past 3 decades, Arabian oil was steadyly re-orienting itself and was always looking for one way or another to "divert" from that dollar-dominance. Arabian oil was never happy with the dollar, getting confetti-status, after 1971 close of the Gold-window. Euroland was recovering from 2 WW and wanted to break away from its dollar-obligations. Today, many globalized regions in the world, aren't eager anymore to "serve" the dollar.

Gold, Arabian oil and currencies want to break free from the dollar ! Not separately but in conjunction with each other. This cooperation of Gold/oil/currencies is condensed in the euro-concept. Whether one likes it or not...the euro-currency is the result and at the same time, the answer, to 3 decades of global management without alternatives, but the dollar.

Yes, the whole concept behind the euro thrust was political driven to specifically include "only physical Gold" in a future *** non-currency *** function ! The marking to marked of the Gold-exchange reserves and the WA are evidence for this concept. Ignore or deny it at your disadvantage.

All geo-political events do rotate around this Arabian oil/Gold/euro versus dollar, fulcrum.

Don't make the mistake of being diverted from the above fundamental (the ball), whilst "public opinion" - wars - are raging (the game).

Arabian oil and the euro have chosen for Gold and the dollar wants the Arabian oil to counter Gold and the euro !

Impossible to make any changes on the above simple and straithforward, set of choices.

Yes, the dollar won the war against Gold AND Arabian oil, during the past 3 decades. This battle "was" relatively easy because of TINA (there was no alternative). Now there is one, the euro-concept.

Putin in Germany and 3 days in France ! It's about Arabian and Russian oil with currencies in the background. It's about the overwhelmingly, increasing, dollar-pressure !
It's about brand new coalitions/alliances on new foundations.

The war on oil, for oil, is indirectly, through the economical impact, a currency war, that will transition Gold into a different world from our perceptions today.
And believe me, many financial actives do react furiously when talk about Gold in such a context is brought forward.
The paperists simply "hate" Gold as the pest ! They don't grasp the idea of Free Gold within an expanding euro-zone-marketplace. They all keep living into the illusion that the good old paper-chase times will soon come back.
So it is easy to understand that the Gold-concept-builders have to operate very cautiously within such a Gold-averse environment. Free Gold must NOT kill economic expansion (financial industry) but rather enhance it on renewed more sound fundamentals.

Watch how the euro political power (in all its diversity) is growing and backed by the ECB/BIS-alliance. Real Gold "liquidity" is drained from London market and finding its way to many other places. This must happen discretely for the time being. Just ask yourself "why" Saudi Arabia/Iran and the Arab lique remain absolutely silent !?

The US$ has been inflated to unimaginable extremes to protect the US banking too is the contract-gold-currency still inflated until suddenly its "CREDIBILITY" is shaken. This is the main (one and only) reason that the "dollar" MUST break OPEC-power, at any cost !!! Will he...can he....shall he (the dollar) ???

Gold StandardConfusion#972522/10/03; 04:55:45

I just want to get this straight in my head, all this talk about shorts, longs, short squeezes and everything else that smells like manipulation in the silver arena.

I understand that the "shorts" are selling something that they do not physically possess RIGHT NOW.

I also understand that if it looks like they have to deliver what they don't currently possess RIGHT NOW, and the price of the underlying commodity is rising, the shorts are the subject of a "short squeeze", and they have to buy at market price in order to fulfil their obligation.

The extra open buying interest causes the market price to rise, and the short squeeze becomes a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Now, if the price of the underlying commodity is falling, rather than rising, and the market price is falling below the contract price of the short transaction, it is self-evident that the short either (a) purchases at market and fulfils the contract, or (b) allows the counter-party to buy at market, and get out of the contract with the short for a price (paper profit). Option (b) would be uncommon, except for an early closure scenario (at a price!).

I can even understand when Ted Butler and David Morgan talk about the unnamed shorts on COMEX being net short 75,000 contracts (and this represents 75,000 x 5,000 oz of silver bullion) that it exceeds the total tradeable supply of silver known to exist in the world. I can understand it, but it seems to be contrary to any sort of commodity producer hedging rules, that normally only allow a net total of 1 year's full production to be hedged, so as not to affect the market price of the underlying commodity.

If we look at hedges in simplicity, they are designed to "lock" in prices for a producer. The producer knows exactly how much he needs to commit to this year's farming or mining, knows how much he has to repay to the banksters, and he knows, after costs, how much profit he can make.

On the other side of the slightly tarnished, clipped and debased coin, the "user" knows exactly how much he has to pay for the product, for the entire length of the hedge. A contractual obligation, that has clear advantages for both sides, a price set in concrete, and not subject ot market forces.

In my simple example (and I keep it simple because I am simple…) this seems to be the "Invisible Hand" of market forces in action, and an agreement reached that is satisfactory for all parties.

The producer is in fact a "NAKED" short, because he is selling something that he does not possess RIGHT NOW, and expects to grow (or mine) the underlying commodity in the season to come. The user has the commercial advantage in that the source of supply is at a fixed price.

In this scenario, this NAKED short does not, in my view, manipulate the price of the commodity to any degree, because it is forward-looking. Indeed, a prudent producer would enter the market and buy corresponding calls of the product, which would entitle (but not oblige) the producer to buy the commodity at a given date in the future, for a specified price equal to or less than the contract short price he has agreed to.

The only way that the "user", as buyer, can cover their position if the price of the underlying commodity drops, is to EITHER (a) take that exact risk, that they may be in the future paying too much on strike, OR (b) separately enter into a NAKED SHORT contract with a further buyer, to sell at or above the strike price, and cover with a call at market. The risk of price downside is therefore transferred to a further buyer.

From my simple analysis, the producer is then in a "no lose" situation, and all that it has cost him is (a) locking in the price of his product, and (b) the cost of the call option to cover the "naked" short.

The producer is, in effect, betting that the price of the underlying commodity does not rise, and that the strike price is greater than the market price.

However, the "user" as buyer takes a risk that the price will fall, unless this contingency is covered in a similar fashion to that of the producer, by forward-selling a contract for the whole of the produce at the strike price. There is then no risk to the "user" as buyer if the price falls (if the user has hedged), and the upside is that if the price falls, the "user" can double his profits, by (1) the original contract price, and (2) the forward sale to the counter-party over and above market price.

However, if the market price rises above the strike price, the "user" as buyer who has on-hedged will be in the net position of having to buy "at market", because the total quantity of the contracted for produce at the forward-sale price is to be sold to a further buyer at that price. The "user" as buyer then has to go to the market to buy what was originally contracted for.

The "user" as buyer therefore controls exactly the nature of the risk he faces, whether the market goes up or down in the underlying commodity. The "user" can either take the risk if the price falls, or else hedge against that risk by selling at the lower price from market (and double the profits).

If the price rises, either (a) the "user" as buyer wins, or (b) the "user" as buyer sees no profit because he has hedged an equal amount to the contract. In my book, "no" profit is far, far better than a trading loss.

Is this "user" as buyer then considered to be a "SPECULATIVE SHORT"? It really sets up a daisy-chain of covered counter-party risk, until such time as a buyer down the chain decides on option (a), to take the risk of a fall in prices, rather than covering it through option (b), further hedging.

The daisy-chain situation is likely to lead to a blow-out of open contracts, but one where the net position is pretty well balanced.

How, then, does the increase in "paper" contracts (the Paper Avalanche) have a direct effect upon the current market price of the underlying commodity???

The only way that I (as a self-confessed simpleton) can see this happening is if the paper contracts are actively traded OTC or otherwise, where the contracts (and the price TO BE PAID) are seen by buyers of physical as the market's view on silver, and the price of the underlying commodity is consequently bid down.

Sorry for the looooooong post, but can anyone enlighten this simpleton as to any other cause and effect of paper transactions actively reducing the market price of the underlying commodity?

Get Ye some Gold!

BelgianTurkey#972532/10/03; 05:19:47

With the different positions on Turkey, we have another example as to how $/€/oil/gold are involved :
Turkey desires to join EMU (euro). The US is still encouraging, Euroland, to let Turkey join the euro-zone (EMU). This is "very" strange ! Euroland still undecided on Turkey's participation, whilst the US (dixit Bush) presses hardly for Turkey to join. A total contradiction.

An EMU-Turkey would be very, very convenient for the US to be used as an excellent, permanent platform to control Arabian oil FROM EUROLAND ZONE ! A devillish compromise.
The US wants to lure Euroland into the Arabian oil-control as to strengthen the dollar and to diminish the oil for euro chances/reasons. The financial think-tanks, suggest these kind of strategies to the politicians who even don't understand the real deep motivations for such strategic choices.


If the euro (concept) isn't able to reach oil-status (oil for euro)...Arabian oil will certainly NOT hesitate to use GOLD, DIRECTLY as dollar-terminator. One gram per barril !

Thoughts ?

misetichIraq Crisis Tests Turkish-U.S. Relations#9725402/10/03; 06:43:12


Last week, Turkey's parliament grudgingly agreed to allow the U.S. military to upgrade military bases and ports that could be used in a possible war, a long-standing U.S. demand. But lawmakers held off on a decision to allow U.S. combat troops in the country until later this month a decision diplomats say could delay any U.S. war plans.
But the Turkish army wants to enter Iraq's north in any war and there is reportedly disagreement about the possibility of U.S. command over Turkish troops.
"We will not make any commitments until the last minute," Economy Minister Ali Babacan was quoted as saying Sunday. He just wrapped up talks with top U.S. Treasury officials about U.S. war aid for Turkey.
That attitude is causing frustration in Washington.
"Turkey's situation is a difficult one," Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld said last week. "Regrettably, because of those uncertainties, it's been a slow process."
Most analysts agree, because Turkey considers the United States its most dependable ally and seeks billion in defense contracts with the United States. "In the short term, (Turkey) can suffer in an operation. But from a wider perspective, both parties need each other," said Mustafa Kibaroglu, a strategist at Bilkent University.
"There's no way out," said Koni. "Who else can Turkey rely on? Saddam Hussein?"


"There's now way out" - for who Turkey or the US?

- For all the behind the scenes arm twisting the US "allies" are demanding "compensation" in return (Some are still waiting for the "compensation payments of the 1990 Gulf War from the US"

Who is funding the pending Iraq's invasion? Who will fund the prolonged occupation of Iraq?

Will the Saudis, Iranians, France, Germany, Russia, China, Opec, just sit idly as the juggernaut attempts to spread its eagles wings on the Iraq's oil fields?

Is it really a slam dunk for the US to conquer Iraq, and its oild fields?

Many think so believing in the US unchallenged military might -

Yet the US has painted itself in a corner - alleged allies - are demanding compensation and those that have been advertised by the US as being in (European eastern countries)offer little in return -

The Saudis floated the kicking out of US forces from their territory on the week-end (later on denied by them) - The European Superpowers (being minimized by the propagandist US controlled media as being only "France-Germany-Belgium" floated deployment of UN soldiers in Iraq to avoid war

Is the ousting of Saddam - evil as he is - justify what is occurring presently? What are the ulterior motives?

Why have so many people been tortured in the last 10 years Iraq embargo to the faults of one man - Saddam -

Couldn't the mighty power of the CIA etc. have been used to take Saddam and his immediate entourage - thus avoiding the killing of innocent victims allegedly in the hundreds of thousands in the last 10 years alone?

What is the US real agenda? Is it really a slum dunk to grab somebody else's property (oil fields) as the world watches?

The stakes are high - The risks are high - The world economies cannot afford this high stakes poker game -

A little PHYSICAL GOLD in investors portfolios wouldn't hurt in this crazy times - would it? As Ari says Get Some!

Got gold?

R PowellGold Analyst on CNBC#9725502/10/03; 07:16:01

John Hathaway was Mark Haines quest at 8:20 EST this morning on the peoples stock picking television channe.

Hathaway is the manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund. He views the current uptrend in POG as more of a reaction to currency inflation designed to relieve debt than as a reaction to the possibility of war. He thinks the trend will continue for some years to come.

When asked about central bank selling of gold, Hathaway stated that he believes central banks are no longer selling and may, in fact, become buyers.

Concerning the total market cap of gold funds, he mentioned that this cap at about 4 billion $ is very tiny indeed in the world of mutual funds. He also expressed the belief that physical investment for individuals is not easy, thus promoting stocks and funds. This last statement I think may be a little biased as I'm sure he is aware of fine metals' brokers such as CPM. His television presence and appearance is that of a serious, strickly-business investment manager. Nothing wrong with that but there isn't the potential that he might say something shocking, funny or sarcastic like there is with someone like Fleckenstein.

I'm out-of-work again and sitting in Black Blade's bone pile. This time it's a weather related seasonal slowdown, delaying potential work as opposed to no work during good weather which is akin to Kondratieff Winter.
Anyway, I have time to watch and learn.
Happy winter

ToasterWas the gold market manipulated?#9725602/10/03; 07:18:21

Was the gold market manipulated during the Colin Powell speech ?

Did the United States and Great Britain sell gold during Colin Powell's speech at the United Nations?

Interesting column at Global Stock Alert

DuncanIdahoDYODD and FWIW#9725702/10/03; 07:30:20

@nation of one (your #97196): Re my FWIW: 'For What It's Worth'. What is 'your' FWIW? I missed that one. Re DYODD: It's used a lot at the 'other' forum, for 'Do Your Own Due Diligence', although some wags say it means, 'Do Your Own Doo Dah', or simply 'Doo Dah, Doo Dah'. Your DYODD is funnier. Thanks for the morning laugh.

Best wishes to all,

Golfer33Iraq and serious fears.#9725802/10/03; 08:08:49

I should preface my question by stating that I am in definate agreement with the current administration on pursuing Iraq and the removal of any WMD or chemical weapons, etc.

Here's the Question.
We all know that Saddam is a brilliant criminal with absolutely no qualms about killing us, or even his own people. He's surely not naive enough to allow the US to attack and destroy any of his counter measures before he has a chance to use them. If he should unleash all of his resources BEFORE we do, and we have over 100,000 soldiers in Kuwait, with a less than effective, and possibly questionable means of protecting themselves against a massive chemical, biological attack, and have we encounter 30?, 40?- 50,000 body bags coming back to the US at one time, what will that do to our resolve, our reserve forces, and gold, silver, oil?

R PowellGold Standard#9725902/10/03; 08:15:06

It all makes sense to me up to this statement...

However, the "user" as buyer takes a risk that the price will fall, unless this contingency is covered in a similar fashion to that of the producer, by forward-selling a contract for the whole of the produce at the strike price. There is then no risk to the "user" as buyer if the price falls (if the user has hedged), and the upside is that if the price falls, the "user" can double his profits, by (1) the original contract price, and (2) the forward sale to the counter-party over and above market price.

You correctly stated that a seller (say a farmer) can sell his coming crop forward to "lock-in" a profitable year. He knows his total costs per unit production and, if prices are favorably high, can sell forward the crop that's just being planted. He is assured a profit and no longer at risk of lower prices often seen around harvest time. What if prices go up? He has insurance, in the form of a call option, so that he will benefit from a higher price at harvest time.

That's the producer (seller). The buyer (user) can do the same thing by buying forward, when prices are reasonable or even low, to assure cost control for the raw material needed for their end product (example, Kelloggs buys corn needed for Corn Flakes). The buyer can also buy insurance against even lower prices by buying put options which give the right (but not the obligation) to sell at a set price for a certain length of time. Lets say puts are bought at a strike equal to the buying price of the corn. If corn prices drop $0.50/bushel so that Kelloggs paid that much more than did their competitors, the option will have gained that $0.50/bushel. The option can be now sold (not exercised!) for an offsetting $0.50/bushel gain. This leaves the buyer (Kelloggs) with no further obligation.

ZeltsA note of thanks.#9726002/10/03; 08:24:18

I just received my gold coin and wanted to thank Sir Gandalf for running the contest, Sir MK for providing this excellent forum and to all the Knights and Ladies who have provided the political and economic perspectives that have so enriched my knowledge over the past three years.
There is one question I have regarding the accumulation of bullion coins as opposed to numismatic gold coins. Assuming the worst case scenario and I have to sell/exchange a coin like the Swiss franc to someone who has no idea of its gold content, I would think that a bullion coin that shows the weight and fineness would be more negotiable.
Any thoughts?

aliThe US is still encouraging, Euroland, to let Turkey join the euro-zone (EMU). This is "very" strange !#9726102/10/03; 08:46:09

There are millions of Turks working and living in the EMU and many millions of pension cheques denomimated in Euro flowing to Turkey every month, plus all the tourists Euro going there.It is strange indeed that it would require the USA influence for Turkey to join the Euroland.But then there are many things which look incomprehensible to me.
I stick to gold and silver; that I understand.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)Nato rift raises gold and oil prices#9726202/10/03; 09:14:50

Increasing tension over a possible war with Iraq has pushed up gold prices and sent oil to two-year highs.
War jitters had eased somewhat over the weekend on news UN weapons inspectors were making progress.

But investors fled into gold, a traditional safe-haven during times of international trouble, after news of a rift in Nato between the US and France and Germany.

WAC: Seems everything BUT the collapsing economy is responsible for rising gold prices.

Old YellerBelgian#9726302/10/03; 09:30:08

Turkey is a basket case,it makes Argentina look like a
paragon of financial virtue.

The MF is continually pumping billions of USD's into
that black hole,as opposed to Argentina,which twists in
the wind.

We all know why that is.

More US inspired toxic debt goo,here,you Euro guys take it
off our hands.

Simply Me@DuncanIdaho#9726402/10/03; 09:35:36

FWIW is shorthand For What It's Worth.
Another Dune fan,

sector@ GoldStandard What do short sellers sell?#9726502/10/03; 09:53:39

Sir Rich Powell and I have a gentlemans disagreement as to whether...

...the short seller is the technical owner of the commodity. I say yes he says no.

Here is a tidbit from E-Analytics regarding Exchange for Futures transactions. These are the vast majority of transactions for physical metal on the COMEX. They occur off the floor and their reporting is one step removed from the visible open outcry sessions where prices are in clear view.
Exchange - For - Physicals EFP

This is part of a larger Futures and Commodities site provided by Equity Analytics, Ltd.

Exchange rules stipulate that all futures transactions take place in the pit (the floor of the exchange) with one exception. This is the EFP or the Exchange For Physicals. Assume Trader X is long 1 corn contract and wants to own the corn; and that Trader Y is short 1 corn contract and owns corn.
[Please note the statement, "Trader Y is short 1 corn contract and OWNS THE CORN".] [Emphasis added]

It is my belief based upon both logic and several other references that in order to sell short a commodity or stock [Which Rich agrees must be owned or borrowed] one must obtain ownership of the commodity.

This does not imply that the metal must be possessed, only that the short seller has title to the metal. For example a homebuyer places a down payment and signs a contract on an existing home. At that point he or she is the owner of the home even though there are several other required transactions, which must be satisfied. Bank financing, title search etc.

Thus when a short seller enters a contract he borrows the title to some gold, which is usually a small part of a larger pool of metal provided by others for the purpose of market liquidity. For this these liquidity providers are paid a lease rate.

The amount of metal in these EFP transactions is orders of magnitude greater than the COMEX warehouse stocks so one can easily be misled into thinking that there isn't much gold going through the COMEX. The title transfers mean that the new owners hold ownership to metal that resides elsewhere.

It is my position that in order to sell commodities futures [Not sell options for commodities] the seller must demonstrate that they "Own the Corn".

sectorMore on what [Some] short sellers sell#9726602/10/03; 10:25:23

In the silver pits, Ted Butler...

..has correctly pointed out to CFTC officials that far too much silver is being sold. More even than exists above ground coupled with mine supply. So where are the regulators?

That the COMEX silver market is rigged is a given. The gold market is also rigged by official selling.

In my debate with Rich I am ignoring this rigging and assuming that under current regulations, IF they enforced, a seller would have to have title to the commodity.

BTW there is rising pressure to engage the CFTC and COMEX in a class action litigation [See Richard640 on another nearby board].

Paper AvalancheFailing down?#9726702/10/03; 10:45:30



a nation of oneReply to Gold Standard (2/10/03; 04:55:45MT - msg#: 97252)#9726802/10/03; 10:49:38

You ask: "...can anyone enlighten this simpleton as to any other cause and effect of paper transactions actively reducing the market price of the underlying commodity?"