USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

Electronic reproduction sourced from
mikalWar costs trial balloon?#9051712/01/02; 07:17:51

U.S. facing bigger bill for Iraq war
Total cost could run $200 billion, with little help from allies By Michael Dobbs
"A recent conference by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies considered three scenarios for a war with Iraq. The benign scenario, the probability of which was estimated at 40 percent to 60 percent, envisaged a decisive victory for allied forces in four to six weeks and no disruption in oil supplies. Under this scenario, oil prices would likely come down in the aftermath of the war, boosting the U.S. economy.
A worst-case scenario (5 percent to 10 percent probability) envisaged fighting for three to six months, massive political unrest in the Middle East, terrorist attacks against the United States and large-scale damage to Iraqi oil facilities.
An intermediate scenario (30 percent to 40 percent probability) included limited damage to oil facilities, major urban warfare and fighting for up to three months. The intermediate and worst-case scenarios would have "serious adverse effects" on the U.S. economy, according to Laurence H. Meyer, a former Federal Reserve Bank governor now with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The worst-case scenario would likely lead to a global recession."...End snippitts

GratefulForGoldWhere is everyone?#9051812/01/02; 12:41:32

I am not receiving my "reading fix" today. Naughty. Naughty.
goldfoolMore on Bush's scorched earth policies#9052012/01/02; 14:25:58

New Rules Reverse Environmental
Controls Of America's Nature Areas
By Suzanne Goldenberg in Washington
The Guardian

The Bush administration has intensified its campaign to open up the last of America's nature areas to commercial exploitation, unveiling a plan to allow logging in forests under the federal government's protection.

Environmentalists say the proposed legislation would affect a combined area of 78m hectares (192m acres) of forest and grasslands - more than three times the size of Britain - and dismantle a generation of protective regulations.

The new forest management rules announced on Wednesday are seen as an attempt to roll back guidelines issued during the last days of President Clinton's term.

But they also represent an underlying campaign to dismantle environmental legislation that has gathered pace since the Republican party's victories in the mid-term elections earlier this month, environmentalists say.

The plan gives the local managers of some 155 federally protected nature areas the power to approve commercial exploitation of the lands entrusted to their care.

They would also no longer be compelled to conduct detailed scientific studies on the impact of commerce on animal life and the environment.

It also takes away one of the most effective tools of the environmental movement - postcard, email and letter campaigns - saying that such methods would no longer be officially registered as objections to forest management plans.

The plan was immediately condemned by America's leading environmental organisations as a sop to the country's timber companies and an attempt to dismantle 1970s-era legislation by stealth.

They also accused the White House of manipulating the timing of the announcement, on the eve of the Thanksgiving holiday.

"These new forest rules reflect the Bush administration's belief that only timber companies belong in America's national forests," said Carl Pope, director of the Sierra Club, an environmental group. "When the Bush administration rewrote the rules, they wrote the public out of the equation."

Another leading environmentalist organisation, Defenders of Wildlife, said the proposals were identical to a wishlist drawn up by the American Forest and Paper Association.

The measures, which could become law within 90 days following public consultations, mark the latest attempt by the White House to exploit America's national forests, and tame its environmentalist lobby.

Earlier, the administration sought to open up America's forests for logging in the name of "fire reduction" by felling "excess trees" that could lead to wildfires. "The Bush administration's draft regulations are but the tip of an iceberg that threaten to demolish all of our nation's forest protection laws," said Randi Spivak, the director of the American Lands Alliance .

"In addition to rolling back the National Forest Management Act with these new planning regulations, we know the administration is trying to gut the National Environmental Policy Act and the Appeals Reform Act, both of which guarantee public involvement in land management decisions."

The administration argues that the legislation on forests is cumbersome and that individual forestry officials need to be flexible in making development plans.

"Instead of trying to make a cookie-cutter approach where we say 'this is good for all 155 national forests', it would allow individuals to pursue the plan that best serves that locality," said a spokesman for the US forest service.

Guardian Unlimited © Guardian Newspapers Limited 2002

Goldfool: I think the article misses the real reason why the Bush administration wants to unlock the forests to more timber exploitation. Right now the primary industries keeping this economy afloat are the real estate/contruction industry and to a lesser extent the automobile industry. In my opinion what the Bush administration is really trying to do is keep a steady cheap supply of lumber coming into the market to help shore up the overall economy until other manufacturing sectors recover. The administration probably sees higher prices from a shortage of timber as much of an immediate threat to the economy as a shortage of oil. A favorite environmental cartoon of mine related to the subject (which I think is not far from the truth) shows a typical suburban family on vacation driving through the forest in their SUV with big trees on either side of the road making the comment, "What do they mean there's no trees left in the forest?" Yet just beyond the corridor of dense forest by the road and out of sight of the vacationers the timber companies had clearcut every tree in sight. In a similar vein, for several quarters now the Bush administration, Wall Street, and the Fed have "hoodwinked" the American consumer into believing that a recovery is just around the corner encouraging them to spend and go further in debt but, the price it seems is going to be much higher, not only to the environment which is part of our heritage but to personal freedoms and national security as well.

mikalHere's looking at you babe#9052112/01/02; 14:45:19

Warning: Do not view while drinking hot beverages, operating machinery, driving, etc.
a nation of onelong slide#9052212/01/02; 14:46:23

It is important to remember that the current fall from the great bull market of the 1990s has been a long one. The bullish phase was vast, accumulating huge amounts of money and time in its effects. Few outsiders anticipated with accuracy the bubble popping. And when it did pop, it wasn't a pop, exactly, but more like a curtain of heavy mud slowly descending. Now even the decline has been long and drawn out. It had its really obvious start only after the terrorist attack of September eleventh, 2001. It has been a year now, since that, and it is still very much with us, like a slow motion train wreck. The powers involved are huge, and the times and distances on the way down are also extremely large, partly due to the staunch, widespread ignorance of the public, as lead on by TV stock gurus. The public has not got the true message, they do not try to figure it out, and so they are still holding on. Many are buying into the sales pitch that the market has bottomed and can only go higher. But the truth must be that the ongoing 'rally' is in fact just another blip on the way down, a large blip, granted, but a blip. Its supposed artificiality doesn't help. For in the end, market forces will take their course, and everything thrown in its way will be crushed. Without allowing judgements of goodness or badness to interfere with the clariy of what seems merely to be real, it seems we may, in the near future, witness far, far lower prices in the Dow Jones industrials. I use this measure because it seems the one most people are aware of. And it is 'most people' who are being misled by the ostensible appearance of these events.
BelgianMonetary systems are born in crisis and die in crisis.....#9052312/01/02; 14:58:39

A/FOA having predicted what Alan Greenspan and Ben S. Bernanke just have been telling to the public (Helicopter money or the road to Weimar-(

FOA : Euro-factions will also sell (!) into the paper-Gold-dollar system, to help further discredit its hedging function in the face of dollar-price-inflation.

POG is capped for reasons that reach much further than simple, temporary, dollar-support. Those who agree on Gold-manipulation should look much deeper into the reasons "WHY" this is done in a linear way. Analyse what the ECB's quarterly mark to market means on the road to a FREE GOLD PRICING POLICY. Realize that it is *Gold* within a free physical euro-market, that has been chosen to compensate for the des-integration of "external" (non US) dollar-holdings. Central Banks need a system whereby they are compensated for dollar-losses, because they can't exchange those massive loads of external dollars for physical Gold anymore in such a physical-scarce market. *MOST* Central Banks are happy with their amounts of goldreserves in the vaults and only have to await the most appropiate moment to let the compensation-process take off.

FOA : Eurolanders believe there is a certain historical inevitability to the dollar's demise and there is no need to hasten the process.

Within this evolving "political" play, Gold is but one portion of the pie.

A competitive "political" process of taking the world off the old dollar-standard.

The dollar has a definite "timeline" and the equation that controls that line is linked to "political use".

msges #113 and #110 !!!

The above and much more of FOA-thoughts, explains, why POG is not reacting to "helicopter money > Weimar". The parable of the modern alchemist, finding a way to produce very applicable to the past 20 years of POG history. Architects have been drawing Gold's future in their ivory towers whilst letting it be managed at everybody's convenience. Now the "euro" is going to make the difference !

Perhaps unwittingly, Bernanke offers us a clue as to why tech/telecom/finance have led the rally since oct. 9th.
Perhaps these are the commanding heights of the US economy due to be "socialised" first with new variant of open-market operations during what may very well prove to be the "endgame" of the dollar-reserve-system (D.W.Tice).

At the very least, Bernanke and Greenspan have provided the most powerful argument possible for owning Gold...

Liberty HeadSupreme Court Could End Miranda Warnings #9052412/01/02; 14:59:33{day=Sun{cat=TopStories{art=wed/ak/Ascotus-police-questioning.RbaB_CD1{colorAscotus-police-questioning.RbaB_CD1=FFFFFF

<LOS ANGELES (AP) -- For five years, Oliverio Martinez has been blind and paralyzed as the result of a police shooting. Now he is at the center of a U.S. Supreme Court case that could determine whether decades of restraints on police interrogations should be discarded.
"... If petitioners' theory of the Fifth Amendment is correct, then the public's confidence has been misplaced for all these decades and is about to be shattered," it said.>

Here comes another nail in the coffin of our deceased "Bill of Rights".
This case goes much deeper than Miranda warnings. It is about giving police unlimited power, without any responsibility for how they use it, all in the name of fighting terrorism. I call it tyranny.
Yet, the victim here is no terrorist and was never charged with a crime.

I fully agree with Black Blade about holding precious metals, keeping cash on hand, staying out of debt and maintaining food reserves. I'm still trying to figure out how to hold on to our hard earned liberties though.

Very Grim Indeed.

Paper AvalancheHelicopter money - here it comes#9052512/01/02; 15:47:59

I was watching the idiot box (TV) this morning and saw an advertisement for one of the car companies that astounded me.

$0 down

$0 interest

$0 payments for 90 days

AND!!!! (this is the biggie)

$1,500 cash back.

Essentially, through the miracle of modern finance and the benev olence of the major automaotive manufacturers, Joe Sixpack can put $1,500 in his pocket by picking up a new ride and not pay a dime of interest on said cash.

This appears to be the end game.


Happy holidays.

Paper Avalanche

DracoPaper Avalanche#9052612/01/02; 15:57:19

Unreal! Now they will pay us to buy a car. Reeks of despiration. I'm waiting untill they pay me $4000 to take one off their hands, and free gas for one year.

Should not be too far off in the future.


Buena Fea little history from Encarta/Colliers yearbook 1971#9052712/01/02; 16:24:15

........Dollar crisis.

Continuous balance-of-payments deficits together with the sharp drop in interest rates in 1970 and in the first quarter of 1971 resulted in a massive flow of funds to European money markets. The swollen supply of American dollars and the extraordinary demand for foreign currencies, especially the German mark, put great pressure on foreign central banks. In early May the West German Bundesbank ceased buying American dollars and permitted the German mark to float. The central banks in the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, and Switzerland immediately followed suit. The dollar's value, which the Bundesbank had been supporting at 3.63-3.69 marks to the dollar, fell to 3.25 marks to the dollar. It subsequently recovered to 3.5 marks to the dollar. But nothing had been done to cure the cause of the dollar crisis, and it was certain that it would recur before the year was much older. In August the dollar came under new pressure. It fell to 3.38 to the mark. A congressional committee, the Joint Economic Subcommittee on Exchange and Payments, recommended devaluing the dollar. Then on August 15, President Nixon suspended the right to convert dollars into gold internationally, thereby allowing the dollar to float and find its own value.........

Yah right, it's more honestly called a default!

slingshotCar Sales#9052812/01/02; 16:47:45

Could this be the Ultimate?

Pay off up to $5,000 in credit card balance or write you a check for the same amount. With no increase in monthly payments! No Models held back. New or used Vehicle.

What happen to, Select models only? We only had one in our inventory.

I believe this companys stock is not doing well.

sectorNew Design Coming for Paper Currency#9052912/01/02; 17:19:01

Filed at 2:01 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The last time Andrew Jackson got a makeover, he ended up with a big head, slightly off-center. This time, he will get a little color.

The most noticeable features of the last redesign of U.S. currency -- the oversized, off-center portraits -- produced all kinds of derisive nicknames: funny money, Monopoly money, cartoon money.

Color is coming, and government money makers are hoping for a warmer reception for the changes. The new $20, with its public unveiling set for the spring, is supposed to be in circulation as early as next fall.

New bills in Japan by March 2003. New bills in the US this "Spring".
If you believe this drivel they should stuff and mount your heads as sucker trophies.

There are NO coincidences in the war on gold.

You now have your timetable. But this timetable is the longest interval. The authorities can, at any time including tomorrow morning, make the change. Old money and new money…old values and new values.

The part about counterfitiing is so much bunk. The Jackson image is interstitially applied, scanning devices and inkjet or laser printing technology cannot copy it. Watermark software cannot reproduce it because the image resides within the paper not on the paper. Therefore all this propaganda is designed to confuse and obfuscate a compliant public.

There is only one way to secure yourself from this tsunami of increasingly worthless paper…this paper avalanche…this ocean of ultimately useless currency.

That way is through the ownership of gold and it's unhedged shares.

Black BladeAirlines warned of missile threat #9053012/01/02; 17:22:55


Federal security agencies have warned U.S. airlines and airports to be alert for attacks from portable anti-aircraft missiles after an Israeli airliner was fired at this week in Kenya. "We have taken the steps we need to take to make sure everyone's in the loop on this incident and reminding them of the approach to this issue," said Robert Johnson, spokesman for the Transportation Security Administration. "We are engaged in responding to this issue, and we have been since earlier this year." Two missiles were fired from the ground at an Israeli jet that took off from Mombasa, Kenya, on Thursday. The missiles narrowly missed hitting the Arkia Airlines Boeing 757 with 261 passengers and 10 crew members. Passengers reported seeing the trail of the missiles pass the aircraft.

Black Blade: There are literally thousands of SA-7 and SA-7 clones available on the black market. It would be a simple matter for terrorists to obtain these shoulder launched missiles and commercial aircraft are defenseless. It's only a matter of time before we see airliners dropping from the skies. Actually I am surprised that we haven't seen more attacks like this.

Black BladeBargains Dazzle Shoppers - Will It Last? #9053112/01/02; 17:41:42;jsessionid=4YZN030L1KCU2CRBAEOCFFA?type=businessNews&storyID=1832084


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Heavy promotions lured American consumers into stores this weekend, but retail analysts said a post-Thanksgiving boost might not be enough to salvage an already-frail holiday shopping season. Retailers put on their holiday best to nab consumers: strategies like early store openings to scantily dressed greeters and huge discounts to draw shoppers into stores. The weekend after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday -- traditionally the start of the critical holiday shopping season -- draws shoppers in with widespread price cuts, and discount stores in particular were the most popular. "Discount retailers were the early winners," Scott Krugman, spokesman for the National Retail Federation, said. "The 'doorbuster' specials were effective in getting consumers out of the house early on Friday morning and has kept them out ever since ... the question is how well will things keep up during the rest of the holiday season?" Consumer spending is a closely watched barometer of overall economic health because it accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Any signs of a slowdown raises concerns. Same-store sales have been lackluster for many retailers over the past few months and the holiday selling period is an important one -- even more this year after most merchants had a grim back-to-school sales season. Now under gun, retailers are using price cuts and promotions to grab consumer dollars. "Foot traffic on Friday was extremely heavy but consumers were looking at the price tag before looking at the product," said Kurt Barnard, publisher of Barnard's Retail Trend Report. "It was the depth of the discount that determined whether the product was going to be considered for purchase."

Black Blade: It appears that the discounters will do well this holiday season, but the chain stores will suffer. Even so, spending is likely to be cut back and consumers are looking for bargains. Others I have talked to have said that they are on very tight budgets this year. I also suspect that the shopping frenzy will be short lived compared to years past. This year I have spent maybe a fifth as much and only on low priced items. I went from large items to "stocking stuffers". I went to a couple of stores including Wal-Mart and Kmart and the foot traffic was nothing to crow about. It should be an "interesting" year for the retail sector.

CoBra(too)Hayek Hangover - by Raymond Devoe#9053212/01/02; 17:49:31

... and as Devoe states that this may not be garden variety of post WW recessions. Don't we all feel this is going to be the beginning of the end of the US$-Hegemony - and another fiat/paper free floating system based on (creative) debt and no credit.

Within the realm of learning recently, how the FED and its spokespeople, Greenspan, Bernanke, Mc Teer and Fisher will overcome potential deflation - 'however farfetched that notion may be, according to soft spotted Sir Alan' - I'm personally lost to see how anyone - and particularily abroad can even contemplate to hold on to the $-confetti.
The currency returns a negative interest rate - is debased by 34 Trillion indebtness never to be repaid and is solely based on the full credit of the U.S.'s - maxxed out taxpayer, presumably. Wow! What now?

... Well, yes, we all know the easy exports from SE-Asia to the US, after rendering them the productive base and (partly EU - since we've done the same in the former eastern Eurpe - though we'll make up for that and embrace 'em as you can only strangle partners - in such a benevolence) - Hey, friends, we're learning fast and pray the euro will pave the way to another hey day.

- And that is probably what won't work within a system of free floating currencies on a global basis, policed by IMF, WB and to a lesser extent BIS any longer. Every sovereign bailout by these entities have proven to be the ultimate devastation of their economies, liberty and pricing power of their main products.

Globalization may be a grand concept, though under the $ or any other paper regime it is just the equivalent of beggar thy neighbor, which in the end will come back to sender and haunt the supremists ...

... and then physical gold will be the only insurance once again - while the fatalistic notion of systemic failure is already main street spin - "Der Dollar ist hin!" - an austrian colloqial for 'kaput'!

Best - cb2

Black BladeUS Lawmakers Urge Bush to Protect U.S. Planes #9053312/01/02; 17:52:42;jsessionid=4YZN030L1KCU2CRBAEOCFFA?type=politicsNews&storyID=1831579


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Warning of possible missile attacks against U.S. commercial airliners, lawmakers urged the Bush administration on Sunday to act promptly to protect American planes from attacks similar to the recent near-miss on an Israeli airliner carrying 261 people. Sen. Bob Graham, the top Democrat on the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee, said such a move needed to come from the administration immediately, without requiring further action by the U.S. Congress. "That should be something initiated immediately by the newly established Transportation Security Agency within the Department of Transportation to respond to this or any other form of attack against commercial aviation or other forms of transportation in the United States," Graham told the "Fox News Sunday" program. Graham was joined by Sen. Richard Shelby, the ranking Republican on the panel, and said U.S. intelligence agencies now were predicting a "75 percent or better likelihood" of attacks against the United States in the event of any attack on Iraq that threatens Saddam Hussein. Shelby said American aircraft in U.S. airspace were especially vulnerable. "Let's be honest about it. There are thousands of these surface-to-air missiles around the world," Shelby said. "You can buy them, and you can transport them.... Sooner or later, that's going to be one of the methods for the terrorists to hit."

Black Blade: I would say that such an attack or similar attempt is inevitable.

ElGordoVenezuela unstable#9053412/01/02; 18:13:10

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuela has launched contingency plans to ensure the nation's vital oil sector is not disrupted by a strike set for Monday by foes of President Hugo Chavez, the state oil firm PDVSA said Sunday.

Business and labor opponents of the leftist president have called the Dec. 2 work stoppage to press for an early referendum on his rule in the No. 5 crude exporter. They are keeping the length of a stoppage a secret.

Large numbers of white-collar employees in PDVSA are expected to support the strike. Leaders of the anti-Chavez PDVSA workers have said oil output and exports could be hurt if the stoppage is extended for more than two or three days.

"Taking into account the current national situation, the board of directors and its management team consider it necessary to declare the first phase of the company's contingency plan, which is preventive," a PDVSA statement said.

All oil installations were currently operating normally, and national guard troops were protecting them as usual, it added.
Chavez said Sunday that the strike would fail and reassured buyers of Venezuela's oil.

"We say to Venezuela and the world, to our clients all over the world and to our investors, we fully guarantee operations," he said during his weekly radio and television program, "Hello, President."
A prolonged disruption of the oil sector would seriously harm the economy of Venezuela, which relies on crude sales for around 50 percent of government revenues. The OPEC nation is also a top oil supplier to the United States.

Anti-government PDVSA employees said last week that the possibility of an oil supply interruption would sharply increase if the government brought in unqualified personnel to run installations deserted by absent employees.

Operators would be obliged to shut down industry systems so that installations were not damaged by the inexperienced personnel, Juan Fernandez, a PDVSA planning manager and a leader of anti-government employees, told Reuters on Friday.

"They are going to run into problems if it lasts more than a few days," a U.S. oil analyst, who asked not to be named, said Sunday.

PizzSlingshot, Paper Avalanche#9053512/01/02; 18:29:07

On Cars. . . .

1500 cash back is nothing. That's either a manufacturer to dealer rebate or a used car that they bought 2 or 3 grand back of NADA book. The banks will finance dealer invoice plus a few grand or NADA book plus a few grand if you have decent credit.

The 5000 back is on a top line car with at least that much back factory to dealer or on a late model used car that the finance companies are dumping. We're buying two and three year old BMW's at auction 7000 or more back of NADA wholesale right now. Sell it for NADA book, cash back 5k and still make 2000 plus.

Dealers have been doing this for years, it's just the spread that is bigger right now. (Plus cheap money)

Cavan ManThe Big Fat Japanese Conundrum#9053612/01/02; 18:33:50

a.k.a How's your "global standpoint"?

Yen Falls Versus Dollar on Shiokawa Call for Weaker Currency
By John Brinsley

Tokyo, Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell against the dollar after the Mainichi newspaper Web site reported that Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said Japan's currency should fall as much as 23 percent against its U.S. counterpart.

The yen weakened for a second day to 122.94 against the dollar at 9:44 a.m. in Tokyo, from 122.54 late Friday in New York. It was also at 122.12 against the 12-nation European currency from 121.87.

``The yen may be too high considering Japan's current ability,'' the Mainichi newspaper's Web site quoted Shiokawa as saying. ``The dollar should be about 150 yen to 160 yen when calculating from a global standpoint.''

CytekChapman on Gold#9053712/01/02; 18:38:34

Often we get the question, what will gold do during deflation or depression? It depends on the quality of other assets and usually other assets have major problems during deflation. That drives money to asset quality and that quality asset is gold. This must be accompanied by the perception that gold is the best alternative. The key really is persistent dollar devaluation and we see that coming weather inflation precedes deflation or we go straight to deflation. Thus the key, asset value. The dollar can't be that asset if it's declining, because it's overpriced or because the current account balance is 5% of GDP or the US debt is spiraling upward at an accelerating clip. Those negative dollar positions or rising interest rates will make the dollar unattractive. Perhaps the dollar and the US could no longer be perceived as a safe haven. That could be the result of protracted war in Iraq. Like in 1979-80, there is no opportunity cost associated with holding gold. Having a money market that is yielding zero or a negative return after taxes certainly isn't attractive, nor is a manipulated stock market. Today, there is no cost to holding gold versus other assets. We believe the US and the world has already launched into global deflation, which means gold can hold its asset value and become the only real currency, the currency of last resort. Its return will be non-deterioration. The longer the dollar stays unnaturally high versus gold, the higher the price of gold will go. China, with its ultra low cost base is sucking the entire world into a deflationary morass. We also can include bad loans, pension problems, overvalued real estate, corporate scandals, massive overextension of credit and a derivative bubble. The pull of deflation is going to be powerful and devastating. Yes, government can lower interest rates, the Fed can flood the economy with liquidity and they can monetize to stimulate the economy, but in the end their efforts will be fruitless. The Fed is already buying treasuries and probably will continue to do so. They eventually will devalue the dollar, but those efforts just won't work. A key event will trigger the rise in gold. It could be the Iraq war. It could be Japanese total debt monetization. It usually is an event no one saw coming. It will happen. There are just too many things working in gold's favor. Soon as an asset class it will have little competition. It could be that after the US takes over Iraq and Balkanizes it, they probably will instigate revolution in Saudi Arabia and enter as protector. In that way they would be occupying two of the world's oil producers. The former or the latter could cause a breakout in gold. The latter could be easily characterized as justified in view of the fact that 12 prominent Saudis are the main bankroll for al-Qaida.

Cytek - The key that Bob says here is this, "persistent dollar devaluation " and "gold can hold its asset value and become the only real currency, the currency of last resort." If you don't have some, then get some and IMO were at the right place.

AnanseHello#9053812/01/02; 19:03:36

Happy Thanksgiving! I'm thankful for all I've learned from reading here. I've been stopping by on nearly a daily basis for nearly 3 years, but have been hesitant to post since nearly everything I know about gold and economics, I've learned here. However, one cannot always be a recipient only so I'll come by occasionally with a tale or tidbit to share.

Thank you, CPM, for your halls of learning and your excellent and friendly service. A tale:

The story below is chilling. I read it in 1972 when it was first published in the Whole Earth Review. Enjoy.

"The Wave is based on the real experience of a high school class in Palo Alto, CA (USA), in April 1967. History teacher Ron Jones came up with a seemingly innocent classroom experiment to explain his students why in the 1930's and 40's many (young) Germans were so under the spell of Adolf Hitler that they allowed or even helped the systematic murdering of millions of innocent Jews."

AnanseTidbits#9053912/01/02; 19:09:03

On the environment: I was talking with one of my brothers this weekend. He put it thus: "We live in a closed system. Our energy comes from the sun. Chlorophyll is the only receptor."

For those interested in sources of non-hybridized seed to grow their own (good and tasty) food, I suggest Seed Savers Exchange ( Because of the membership, they are not only sources of seeds but of information necessary to successful gardening. The material below is summarized from the website. (Yes, I'm a member.)

"Seed Savers Exchange (SSE) is a nonprofit organization. SSE's 8,000 members grow and distribute heirloom varieties of vegetables, fruits, and grains. By so doing, SSE members are keeping genetic material alive which may be called upon to protect our food supply from unforeseen challenges such as drought, global warming, pesticide-resistant insects and diseases."
A similar organization exists for livestock. The U. S. group, American Livestock Breeds Conservancy can be found at the link above.

As to what plants have to do with Gold, see the following from the CSMonitor, Aug 29, 2002 edition. Note: the Monitor charges a small fee for stories from the archives.

No fairy tale: Researchers spin straw into gold by Peter N. Spotts
Snip: "Rumpelstiltskin, the fairy-tale rogue who spun straw into gold, has nothing on Miguel Yacaman and Jorge Gardea-Torresdey. The two University of Texas researchers have developed a way to draw gold from wheat, alfalfa, or - best of all - oats. No spinning wheel required. In this day and age, a simple solvent will suffice to turn homely vegetation into a source of precious metals." It seems that plants take up metals and precipitate them in clusters of nanoparticles. "Gold nanoparticles...are used as tags in studying cellular process in biology electrical contacts in nanoelectronic circuits...."Since then, the researchers have used plants "to manufacture nanoparticles of silver, Europium, palladium and iron."

Black BladePlanes Hit Oil Facility in Basra, 4 Dead-Residents#9054012/01/02; 19:29:45


— BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Western warplanes attacked an oil installation in Basra in southern Iraq on Sunday, killing four people and wounding several others, residents said. U.S. Central Command in Tampa, Florida, said it had no information on the report. "We have nothing on it," Lieutenant Colonel Martin Compton said. "U.S. and British warplanes raided the Southern Oil Company in Basra. Four people were martyred and several others wounded during the raid," one resident, who asked not to be identified, told Reuters by telephone from the port city. The residents said company offices were hit. The Iraqi Southern Oil Company supervises Iraq's oil exports under an oil-for-food deal with the United Nations via Mina-al- Bakr terminal in southern Iraq. A second outlet is through the Turkish port of Ceyhan in the Mediterranean.

Black Blade: If true, then the US and Brit forces are putting the screws to Saddam in spite of the UN weapons inspections and war could be imminent. Saddam has one week left to come clean with a complete inventory listing of all weapons. Should get "interesting".

Black BladeAsian Markets Start Off In The Red#9054112/01/02; 19:37:59

Asian markets are in the red at the start of trading tonight. Japanese economic data last week was absolutely gruesome. The BOJ is back at propping up the US dollar again and selling off the Yen in a desperate attempt to help with exports. Unfortunately it is a losers game and destined to failure at the expense of Japanese taxpayers. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

Black BladeDrought to devastate Australian summer crops after ravaging winter crops#9054212/01/02; 20:11:13


CANBERRA, Australia (AP) -- A drought that has devastated winter crops in eastern Australia will also ravage summer crops, the government forecaster said Monday. The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, ABARE, said rice, cotton and sorghum production -- grown in the Southern Hemisphere spring and summer months of October to March -- would be down by as much as 70 percent. This comes after production of wheat, the nation's main winter crop, plunged to below the 10 million metric ton (11 million short ton) level -- a fall of more than 14 million metric tons (15.4 million short tons) on last season. Brian Fisher, ABARE executive director, said the nation was facing its worst summer crop harvest since a drought in 1982-83. "Overall, the area sown to summer crops is forecast to drop by 41 percent in 2002-2003, with grain production forecast to be down 59 percent to 2 million metric tons (2.2 million short tons)," Fisher said in a statement.

Black Blade: Drought has also ravaged Asia and much of North American grain production. It's no skin off our nose, that is those of us who take personally responsibility seriously by storing nonperishable food for emergencies. For the rest it's just too bad. Such is life.

Black BladeJ.P. Morgan's Enron Case Begins Monday in U.S. Court#9054312/01/02; 20:37:58


J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. will take on a number of insurance companies in court today, the first day of a trial over who will be on the hook for roughly $ 1 billion in financing extended to Enron Corp. through an offshore vehicle known as Mahonia, Monday's Wall Street Journal reported. On one side is J.P. Morgan, which extended Enron financing to be repaid through the future delivery of gas, and shared the risks of that arrangement with insurance companies through instruments known as surety bonds, which were designed to offer financial guarantees of the gas deliveries. On the other side of the dispute are the insurance companies, who now claim that the gas deliveries were a ruse to disguise an effective loan to Enron in the form of gas transactions. The insurance companies, including Chubb Corp. (NYSE:CB) and CNA Financial Corp. (NYSE:CNA), now claim the transactions were fraudulent, and thus refuse to make good on the guarantees.

Black Blade: JP Morgan Chase going to trial in an attempt to defraud the insurers over bogus loans. This should get "interesting" as JP Morgan has been bleeding $billions and earnings have fallen over 90% from last year.

timbervisionAnanse#9054412/01/02; 21:17:51

Interesting link to the Ron Jones story. Please check out the link. What is most instructive is how this fellow, after having accepted the story in all its contents 20 years ago, upon rereading it now, in 2002, had some questions about its veracity. What was instructive to me was how easily I, too, simply believed that because someone said it happened, then it must have been true. When I read his objections, I was reminded of the same things that had puzzled me as to the plausibility of certain parts of the story. However, until reading his objections to the story, I was in the accepting and marvelling mode. At least my curiosity to find out more about this experiment led me to Google and to this man's objection to the story.

"The Third Wave didn't actually happen, at least not as Ron Jones described it. It may have some basis in fact, but most of it is fiction. It's a fable, intended to make a political point. However, it's not presented as a fable. It's supposed to be historical fact. It isn't.

"To follow what I'm saying in this section, you need to click on one of the links above and read his version of the story.

"When you read the story and get caught up in it, suspension of disbelief kicks in, and it's easy to believe that it all happened just as described. I believed it myself for a long time. I read the Third Wave story in 1981. I'm writing this in 2002. It was only a few days ago that it finally occurred to me to question whether it happened......" (go to the link and read on)

mikalInflation "targets" proposal- expedient substitute for open government policymaking#9054512/01/02; 21:27:06

12/02/02 MoF's Kuroda sees ECB inflation target 2-3 pct, BOJ higher
HONG KONG (AFX-ASIA) - Monetary policymakers need to switch their focus to bringing about a global reflation in order to avoid a deflationary spiral and consequently should set inflation targets, Japanese Finance Vice Minister for
International Affairs Haruhiko Kuroda said.
Kuroda, in an article co-written for the Financial Times with Deputy Vice Minster Masahiro Kawai, said the entry into the trading system of
emerging-market economies such as China and other countries in east Asia, "is a powerful additional deflationary force." .....They noted that against this background, traditional monetary policy, as practiced in Japan, has lost effectiveness in a deflationary environment and
therefore central banks need to look at setting inflation targets as a way forward.
....."For the European Central Bank, the target could be 2.0-3.0 pct a year. The BOJ's target should be higher," Kuroda and Kawai said.......Complete story at link above

CytekPOG - Dow Transports and UAL#9054612/01/02; 22:09:41

United has $375 million in bond payments due Monday. UAL has two choices, either finalize United's loan application or file a petition under Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings.
If they get the Gov. loan then this will propell the Transports and there is the Dow Theory, which states that if BOTH the Dow Industrials AND the Dow Transports manifest tops that are higher than the previous tops, then only based on Technicals the DOW could be entering a Intermediate Bull Trend. Which in turn could affect the POG. The POG is currently sitting at the apex of two intersecting trendlines, and MUST break (one way or the other) within the next month. This could get very interesting. With things heating up in Venezuela and of course the Iraqi full discloser of weopons by the 8th. Gold could start running, the real question is which way. We will know very soon.

Gandalf the WhiteWELCOME Sir Ananse !!!#9054712/2/02; 00:44:51

Ananse (12/01/02; 19:03:36MT - msg#: 90538)
GREAT to have you posting now !

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Gold in your hands with NO VAT -- an international relationship that's right for you#9054812/02/02; 02:26:43

You are world-wise and well-connected,
with actions matching your vision beyond the horizon.

This information page was made for our clients and friends just like you.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals has recently fulfilled gold orders for clients in

European DeliveryNew Zealand
the Netherlands
Great Britain
of course,
the United States.

We are pleased to pass along what our European clientele have been telling us -- that our pricing is superior to most of their banks and brokerage firms. We share your view that actions speak louder than words, therefore we support and encourage delivery of the gold while our competitors primarily promote certificate programs. Go figure. That equation solves itself. With USAGOLD - Centennial you'll get a good price and GET what you pay for!

KevLBMA May Be Secretive, But It KNows About Corporate Junketing.#9054912/02/02; 02:57:21

an indicative sample of the dark and shady catacombs of the gold establishment.
HipplebeckStock market bullishness#9055012/02/02; 07:18:21

Just amazes me.
The rally is because people are going deeper into debt to buy Chinese Christmas presents.
How nearsighted can you get?
My cat could get a loan right now.
They are dropping money from the helicopter already, but don't forget, it has strings attached. It is debt.
Maybe if we dig faster we can dig ourselves out of this hole. What a joke.
There is only one way this can go.
The swings between the perception of deflation and inflation will get more and more violent. Think of a top as it starts wobbling. Or a machine that speeds up faster and faster until something gives. That is what the US economy is. As it runs, derivative notational value must get bigger and bigger as the perception of risk rises. And the perception of risk must rise as things get more and more out of balance.
It is only a matter of time. No one wants to be the one who starts the panic because the whole thing falls apart at that time, but the tension rises as things get more precarious.
Theatre of the absurd.
Greenspan has said many times that he is amazed that the "unsustainable imbalances" have not begun their correction. I too am amazed. It reminds me of that saying "Just because something is inevitable, does not mean it is imminent."
The longer it goes on the harder the fall.
We watch in wonder don't we?

goldenboyHippleback: Unsustainable Imbalances:Slow Motion #9055112/02/02; 09:58:34

A lot of people have been predicting a real estate melt-down. I have been saying we could have a melt-up (albeit subject to market corrections, similar to the stock market)
The Fed seems quite willing to float all the boats at any cost.
Those at this forum, especially those who remember the 70`s well, know exactly what this means. Big Inflation!
However, a different one this time, due to globalisation and advanced commodity price fixing mechanisms.
Globalisation prevents labour from demanding more $ for all goods that can be provided from elsewhere. Therefore, inflation is concentrated in services and things that have to be made here.
Commodity price fixing, residing mainly in the control of energy prices is the other key since increased energy will raise prices globally and therefore cause domestic as well as global inflation. Therefore, control of Afghanistan for pipelines and Iraq for cheap oil becomes necessary to meet the objective. (not that I agree to it)
Commodity price fixing of gold'silver and therefore exchange rates has the effect of helping to extend the dream beyond what even Greenspan thought could be achieved. It has frustrated the usual cycle of commodity asset inflation.
I believe the usual results are inevitable; decline of the dollar; big increases in real estate and commodities; huge increases in precious metals owing to too successful a manipulation.
The problem is that this process is agonizingly slow.It frustrates the paper buyers the most. Everytime we buy options and every time we buy stocks because of the leverage we frustrate our own objective and provide free money for the price-suppression boys who need a trading range to keep us in the game. For every 1% move in bullion there is huge leverage in any of the paper products, so they take it.
We get enraged by miners who hedge, claiming that they don`t believe in their product. Are we any better when we feed the paper monster? Do we really believe the juniors we help out will not be compelled by the banks to sell our product short in order to finance production?
I admit I buy shares and have done okay, however, we have to pay more attention to the balance and not neglect physical purchases, at least 50%.

slingshotSiege Engine#9055212/02/02; 10:08:16

Golds Accession

Entering the council chamber, the three Knights sat down at the Oaken Table. Others within the room could feel that something strange had just occured. Sir MK, then asked for Another,FOA and Gandalf the White to join them at the table and that the others be excused. It was a short time when Gandalf entered the room. He sat down and looked at the men across from him and spoke. I regret that Another and FOA will not share our company, for they left the castle for reasons I do not know. They have said they would return soon but not to expect their arrival. Sir Town Crier stood up and showing concern said, I hope their travels are short and return quickly, for what we have seen this evening is troubling. If what we saw is true we have plenty to prepare for and time may not be friendly to us. We have seen the visions of the looking glass and must tell to each other what was revealed to cast out doubt between us.

Gandalf sat quietly and very attentive to what was being said at the table.

Sir Howe spoke, We will speak to Magdelena after we have
fully discussed what we have seen among ourselves,of course with the help of our friend Gandalf.

Another attack was upon the Kings Caravan. He is afraid the attacks will be more frequent and stronger. The on-slaught is repulsed for the time being. He must reach his last refuge.

The Ladies of the Dance, learn of Magdelena, while Magdelena
stares into the looking glass.
The Lord of the Castle. continues to strongly request to see the Council.

And the Winter nights become colder.

TownCrierRussians spend 5.7% of incomes on buying foreign currency#9055312/02/02; 10:55:25

The Russian State Statistics Committee reported for the period from January to October 2002 that Russian citizens on average have spent their incomes in the following way:

58.4 % buying goods
15.4 % buying services

5.7 % buying foreign currency
10.3 % savings

9.2 % on obligatory payments and fees

------(brief article at url)-------

This brought to my mind the issue of whether people are getting their appropriate share of value in return for their income.

Money spent on goods and services certainly give a meaningful return of value in exchange for their income.

Income that is set aside, in either foreign currency or savings which are denominated in domestic currency, however, only represents value in limbo. It is still vulnerable to price risk -- risk that the cash cost will rise on the tangible goods and services which are currently being deferred in ownership.

Because gold is liquid, unlike refridgerators and televisions, purchases of gold give you dual benefits. You gain immediate value in exchange for your income, and it also provides you with a meaningful form of liquid savings that safely removes you from monetary limbo, helping to eliminate the risks from failing (inflating) currencies.

Call USAGOLD-Centenntial today for a consultation on a shift of your own income and savings into the tangible and timeless stability of gold. With a simply phone call Jonathan, MK, and George make it easy for you to enjoy value today.


ElGordoCRB keeps rising#9055412/02/02; 11:09:54

At some point this will show up as inflation???
TownCrierAnother reason for Europeans to protect their purchasing power with gold#9055512/02/02; 11:12:43

London, Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank's chief economist Otmar Issing said there is a greater risk of slow economic growth coupled with RISING prices (than of deflation) in the economy of the 12 nations sharing the euro. [emphasis added]

Issing raised concerns about stagflation. "The risk that we might enter a lasting phase of low growth with more or less strongly rising prices, which could be called stagflation, deserves much more attention than the risk of deflation."

The ECB will probably lower interest rates this week for the first time in more than a year to spur faltering economic growth, analysts said.

------(article at url)-------

Repeat: "...more or less strongly rising prices..."

Act early for best prices and avoid being trampled in the growing population rush to gold to preserve wealth.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.It is only a matter of time for the consequences to unfold#9055612/02/02; 11:35:03

Gold Sovereigns Today!

Because you haven't heard the phrase "strong dollar policy" for a while.

While the Administration's Treasury Department has fallen mum on the issue, the latest target rate cut (to 1.25%) by the Federal Reserve (with a bank lifeline discount rate at only 0.75%) tells the score loud and clear. In recent Congressional testimony Chairman Greenspan said that there is no "meaningful limit" to the Fed's power to inject money into the economy. And consider the dollar's legacy position as a reserve asset currently being held throughout the world. These are the things that sudden financial crisis and hyperinflations are made of.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

GoldnSilver2002gold floor 317 and dow ceiling 9000#9055712/02/02; 12:27:39

Since the chinese gold exchange opened in october gold has consistently held 317 per oz.The dow pumped by hot air(greenspins printing presses),it is a hollow surge.Most people are sick of this market and are fully aware the market follows no fundamentals.I spoke to my euro broker friend and he confirmed as much.Way to go greenspin! People are now sick of your manipulation.Who wants to invest in a market which follows no historical precedent.It wont be long now,people will not be back to the dow and the nasdog and the fed will have to sell its shares to itself.This fake rally fooled no one.The message is clear,the market is rigged,everyone knows it and as such they are leaving the trading to the insiders.All greenspin has accomplished is too confuse everyone,causing total mistrust of the dow(n) jones.They thought they would dump their down jones at pumped highs and scare everyone into selling their gold for cheap.But it just doesnt work anymore.Here comes disillusionment,here comes inflation,here comes a jobless recovery,here comes pension fund shortfalls galore,here comes kyoto agreement ,and here comes a bursting house market.What does that mean?There is only one place left for people to save their investments and capital...GOLD!
TownCrierPer Mr. Gresham's suggestion reinforcing my original intent#9055812/02/02; 12:29:56

I'll be putting together a web page of the gold-related haikus that you brilliant people have crafted and shared with the world since November 20th.

It's still not too late to contribute some new nuggets of enlightenment to the project. Hopefully the relaxing holiday weekend has offered fertile ground for your thoughts to grow.

Here again, for direction (and a feeble attempt at two for inspiration), were my original remarks:

---------You can do this -------

Five syllables here
Followed by seven, and then
Five more about gold.

We all know that gold is going to do just fine as future events unfold. So all that is really left for each of us to do, outside of over-analysis, is to spend our time being thoughtful, and also making money so that we can buy more.

The methods of money-making I leave to you, but in regard to the first item, sometimes we all need a little prod toward thoughtfulness. Therefore, the challenge before you is to offer a haiku about gold.

The art of haiku has been described as the attempt "to frame reality in a single instant that will lock the poet and the reader into sharing the same experience -- a moment of absolute intensity in which the poet's grasp of his intuition is complete and the image he/she describes lives its own life."

The "haiku experience" consists of three elements -- where, when, and what. These elements of place, time, and object are in the finest examples of the art so unified that in the single breath required to utter a haiku it springs to unambiguous life in the reader/listener's mind like the sudden bursting of fireworks.

Gold of autumn leaves
Dappled in moonlight above --
Thieves pause, distracted.

Ok, so much for my contribution. Now it is your turn, everyone.


Sierra MadreCommodities rising...#9055912/02/02; 12:34:23

The CRB chart for one year, shows that the index stood at about 190 on Dec. 1, 2001, and today is at 232.79, which is an increase of 22.5% in a year.

The money supply in the US is inflating at a very rapid pace - desperately.

On another note, the Mexican Senate has rubber-stamped the projected issue of a new series of legal tender silver coins:

1/2 ounce pure silver, with a nominal value of $100 pesos, which at $10.30 per dollar, is $9.71 US. This is legal tender money. There will be 32 different versions, one each for the coat of arms of each state. (Copy-cat US quarters)

Well, there are some things to be said for this measure:

1. It brings silver into the coinage, puts silver before the people once again, makes it talked about.
2. Gives the Mexican money some prestige, definitely. Not many countries use silver at all.
3. Prestige for the Bank of Mexico.
4. Demand for silver for coinage MIGHT raise silver prices, help the mining industry.


Does not provide a true shelter for savings for the Mexican people. Nominal value is $9.71 US, intrinsic value is only $2.21 (@ $4.42/oz today) So, if the corresponding $100 peso bill can go to zero, this coin can only go, at today's prices, to $2.21 US intrinsic value. Limits the loss to 77.24%, which is better than 100%. But only comparatively better. These coins will be saved, but to no avail.

These coins are destined for the smelter, when silver exceeds the nominal value. A futile exercise.

Why save 1/2 ounce coins with an intrinsic worth of $22.76 pesos, that cost the saver $100 pesos if he saves it, when he can get a full ounce of pure silver for $66 pesos ($6.41US)? With $100 pesos, a saver can buy a full ounce, not a half ounce, and still get $34 pesos back in change.

The only way to have a permanent silver coin in circulation, is via NON NOMINAL VALUE and a FLOATING OFFICIAL QUOTE.

Such a coin would circulate permanently, for benefit of the people's savings and protection.

But - benefit the people? No, no, that's not politics. Politics is "screw the people, and keep 'em down!"

Still, the TV campaigns for silver in Mexico, are having an effect, although not the desired effect - as yet.

Perhaps as we go along, we shall see braver and more desireable decisions being made.


Sierra MadreFirst Haiku attempt....#9056012/02/02; 12:53:12

"Paper bills in heaps -
Autumn's chill wind scatters them;
Shining gold remains."

You rike, yes?


R PowellSierra Madre#9056112/02/02; 13:17:44

Silver coins

Don't be too disheartened by the present dollar or peso value of the coming coins. Being silver will probably encourage the average citizen to save them instead of other non-precious coins or paper money.

Anything that helps deplete the remaining stores of silver shortens the time left before the day when all demand will have only current mining and recycling to draw from. If we are right in believing there are no great, secret cashes of silver left to feed the growing demand, then it's just a matter of time. Won't it be nice when everyone's silver coins are worth much more for melt value than their face value. The whole population will profit a little, the mints will get business reminting the same coins with a larger numerical number printed on them and the miners will have plenty of work.

David Morgan reports that the recent decline in Mexican silver production is nothing other than some ore being processed in Texas rather than in country. This lowered the "in-country" production number while, in reality, the same amount- in total, was produced.
Congratulations on the coming coin. Is the whole world returning to silver and gold except the U.S.?

ElGordoTrouble in the Oil patch#9056212/02/02; 13:41:46

New York, Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a one-month high after leaders of a strike in Venezuela said most of the country's workers were taking part in the effort to oust Hugo Chavez, president of OPEC's only member in the Western Hemisphere.

About 82 percent of the country's oil workers joined the strike, union officials said. Traders were also watching Iraq, which has until Dec. 8 to produce an accounting of its arms program. Venezuela and Iraq together produce about 7 percent of the world's oil.

``We could know as early as tonight if they will succeed in overthrowing Chavez,'' said Antonio Szabo, a Venezuelan and president of Houston-based energy consulting company Stone Bond Corp. ``This is a bad time for there to be any disruption in the Western Hemisphere. The U.S. will need Venezuelan barrels if there is any problem in Iraq.''

Crude oil for January delivery was up 38 cents, or 1.4 percent, at $27.27 a barrel as of the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil rose to $27.45 during the session, the highest price since Nov. 1. Oil has climbed 37 percent this year.

In London, the January Brent crude-oil futures contract was up 46 cents, or 1.8 percent, at $25.62 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.

The South American producer is among the top four sources of U.S. oil imports and is the third-biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Venezuelan crude oil accounts for about 9 percent of U.S. consumption.

Extended Strike

Venezuelan workers today threatened to block traffic and extend the work stoppage indefinitely after the National Guard arrested five strikers.

The strike began at 6 a.m. Caracas time. An eight-day walkout by workers and managers in April halted oil exports and led to a coup that deposed Chavez for two days. Chavez's popularity fell during the past year as unemployment rose and inflation quickened. The economy shrank 6.4 percent in the first nine months of this year.

The success of the strike may rest with the country's oil workers, analysts said. The oil industry accounts for about 30 percent of gross domestic product, half of government spending and 80 percent of exports.

Ali Rodriguez, president of state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA, said the company's contingency plan would guarantee oil shipments and production.

Union and business leaders will decide by 4:30 p.m. (3:30 p.m. New York time) whether to extend the strike beyond today, said Carlos Ortega, president of the Venezuelan Workers Confederation, the country's largest labor union federation.

ElGordoFactories weak#9056312/02/02; 13:48:52

NEW YORK, Dec 2 (Reuters) - There is little hope of a pick-up in the U.S. manufacturing sector in coming months, head the of the Institute for Supply Management said on Monday as the group said its gauge of activity in the sector showed weakness for a third straight month.

"We don't have a major driver in manufacturing at this point, something that's going to help us through the next few months anyway," said Norbert Ore, after the institute released its survey of business conditions in the factory sector.

In a teleconference with reporters, Ore said he was concerned that factories were continuing to shed jobs and said increased employment was key to solid U.S. economic growth.
Next we could see BIG layoffs in auto sector.
Lets see how auto sales are doing next Jan.

Liberty HeadHigh IQ Haiku#9056412/02/02; 13:52:47

Sunbeams n'er shine here,
Satan's abode found frozen,
Forsake gold of thine.


18KGolden Haiku#9056512/02/02; 14:00:16

A round golden coin
in my palm lies so heavy -
the metal of kings.

Sierra MadreR Powell: your post #90561 on silver#9056612/02/02; 15:00:56

The problem with the new 1/2 oz silver coins, is that since they have a high nominal value, silver would have to rise to $19.42 before the coins approach melt value. In other words, the poor hoarders of these coins, would miss out on any rise in the price of silver - presently at $4.42/oz - until silver reached $19.42, at which point, the half-ounce would be worth $9.71US, which is the face value of the projected coin ($100 pesos/$10.30 exchange rate = $9.71 US)

At that point, the hoarder could only RECOVER the original cost of the coin ($100 pesos)without any profit at all.

Doesn't sound like a good deal for the saver or hoarder, to me!

And then what? All the coins disappear in the smelter, and we are again left with only the EXPECTATION that new silver coins will be issued: back to square one, in other words. That's no prospect for solid economic savings.

The melted silver again exerts a downward pressure on the price of silver. Back to square one on this, too.

What Mexico needs is a silver coin that will circulate indefintely, and as I said, it must NOT have nominal value, which is an equivalent of price fixing, and must legally float according to an official quote depending on the international price of silver and the exchange rate, always making sure the quote is ABOVE melt value.

This way, people will fight for those coins, and keep them as long as the government policy quotes the coins. If and when they are no longer quoted, the saver can still sell the coins on the market and realize a profit.

The Bank of Mexico probably understands this quite well, and has chosen the other route, in order to derail this proposal which is the truly worthwhile one, and the only way to put silver into circulation alongside paper.

As Cornford said: "Anything which is done for the first time, must either be wrong, or if it is not, then it is a dangerous precedent. From which it follows, that NOTHING SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE FIRST TIME." - Ineffable wisdom!


AristotleMore Information!#9056712/02/02; 15:29:14

Leather bag of . . . coins??
"Waste of a good bag." Peers in.
Coins are . . . GOLD!!! -- "What bag???"

Get you some. --- Ari

Sierra MadreMore on silver for you, R Powell....#9056812/02/02; 15:44:00

Further consideration of the subject treated below:

The present value of the silver in the half-ounce coin, at today's price, would be $22.76 Pesos.

Now suppose we have a devaluation, from $10.30 pesos to the dollar, to $45.22 pesos to the dollar (this and much worse, has happened in the recent past! Can happen again, certainly) Imagine the terrible situation for savers, their savings are decimated, and worth only less than a quarter of what they were worth before devaluation.

For the holder of the 1/2 ounce silver coin with a nominal value of $100 pesos, the market price of silver in pesos, would rise to $200 pesos/ounce ($4.42 dollars/ounce, X $45.22 pesos to the dollar = $199.87 pesos, or just about $100 pesos for a half-ounce. Just a little more devaluation, and the holder of these silver coins will spit them out, because locally, silver is worth $200 pesos/ounce, and his $100 peso nominal value coin, is now worth $100 pesos or a little more with a slight further devaluation. But those $100 pesos are worth now, in dollars, only less than a quarter of their previous worth!

This is like buying insurance for the full value, but your insurance on a $400,000 dollar home pays only...$91,040 dollars if it is a total loss. This is a good deal?

No protection for the saver, whatsoever, until the peso devalues to more than $45.22 pesos to the dollar!

As a savings vehicle, these coins are useless! The silver only has a value, for practical purposes, as decoration.
But, the gullible public will love these coins, irregardless.


sector@Sierra Madre The CRB is UP 22% in a Year#9056912/02/02; 16:01:32

What's even more devastating for the cabal is...

...that the CRB is diverging upwards from its 200 day moving average. Such a condition does not bode well for future inflation. Folks, the 200 day moving average is the sine qua non of investment trends.

Indeed, the Economic Cycles Research Institute [ECRI] has pegged its FIG [Future Inflation Gauge] at 24.1% nine months out.

The upward trajectory, parabolic curve appears like a modern economy death throe and surely must be a fearful thing to behold for those whose job it is to cap gold and continue the paper currency scams of the West.

No wonder the President is invading Iraq to expropriate their petroleum. For him and his elite side-kicks they know it's financial life or death for the Western World.

Not to worry Japanese leaders have said, the "New" currency will stimulate growth. For once they didn't lie:

Growth In gold mines.

sectorAnti-Koizumi forces hitting full stride#9057012/02/02; 16:11:58

Simmering discontent with Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi boiled over Friday, when about 40 Diet members and 650 local assembly members at what was supposed to be a routine meeting demanded Koizumi rewrite his economic policy--the first open display of anti-Koizumi sentiment for key factions in his Liberal Democratic Party.

These factions--led by former Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto and Mitsuo Horiuchi, a former Cabinet minister--had been leaning for some time toward joining anti-Koizumi forces, as had many local assembly members.

After the anti-Koizumi forces came out of the closet Friday, some analysts predicted a major shift in the political fault lines ahead of the LDP presidential election in September.

Koizumi's most visible opponents within the LDP had been fringe factions, such as the one led by Takami Eto and Shizuka Kamei, but the Hashimoto faction--the largest in the party--has become sympathetic to the anti-Koizumi movement.

Just when Washington needed the Japanese the most, they start a political street-fight…over economic policy, the weak yen policy no doubt is hidden somewhere in the weeds.

BTW the yen touched 125 this morning. On its way to 133 again and gold ready to pounce on the incipient inflation over there.

So what else is new.

mikal@SierraMadre#9057112/02/02; 16:22:29

Re: Your "ineffable wisdom": "Nothing should be done for the first time." Arthur Bloch once wrote "Experience is what causes you to make new mistakes."
It follows that by observing POG and POS as performers but by using your logic we can deduce that future gains will be more notable and durable.

R PowellSierra#9057212/02/02; 16:41:25

Coin confusion

I'm confused (nothing new) about your new coin. Is this a half ounce coin that the government is selling as the USA government sells silver coins to investors OR is this new coin going into circulation as a 100 peso eqivalent for paper money like four of the U.S. states quarters = one paper dollar? In other words, will the public get them for 100 pesos and be able to spend them as 100 pesos or are they for sale at a price much higher?

If they are 100 peso equivalent coins and can be obtained as an even trade- 100 paper pesos for a coin worth 100 pesos, then I'd take the coin. If they are just one half ounce silver coins but have to be bought for $19.42, then, I'd suggest, a call to USAGold is in order.

silvercollectorsector#9057312/02/02; 16:43:41

I love your confidence and I rely on your messages to draw strength; thank you.

Here's a question that I posed a few weeks ago and drew little fanfare. How heavy a weighting do you place in the FIG (ECRI)? I saw this graph for the first time a couple months ago and noticed it's very volatile curves. A year or so ago this number was negative and now it has climbed parabolically as you mention. Is there a chance it will fall as abruptly as it shot up?


R PowellCorrection#9057412/02/02; 16:46:02

That last sentence should read.... "but have to be bought for $19.42/ounce,....
R Powellsector // silvercollector#9057512/02/02; 17:24:14

Thanks again for watching that inflation gauge for us. I've been watching the CRB as an inflation gauge or, rather, as an indication of the effect of inflation, namely higher prices for goods (necessities).
I've just finished Prechter's "Conquer the Crash" in which he warns of a deflationary depression. He uses deflationary to mean both fewer dollars in motion and lower consumer goods prices. He includes commodities among those items (everything!) which he thinks will cost less in dollar terms.
I don't think he considered that some assets may fall in dollar price while others are rising. I believe he has called (but not in the book) for a new low in both the POG and POS but he views gold and silver mostly favorably in his book. I enjoyed the book and especially his explanation of how the government and Fed. money/credit/debt scam works. This is a hard concept for me to fully grasp, maybe as I still view unbacked paper money as most useful and sought after to pay my paper debts. I wonder if he has altered his view in light of what the CRB and other indictors are signaling? Also, won't wages lag behind other price increases leaving the middle class consumer struggling to keep up? Wasn't this Batra's theory for economic hard times?
Perhaps some combination of deflation from debt and paper asset default while the Fed and others continue to inflate the money (credit) supply. Paper assets down with commodity prices up? This seems to have been the trend for a while now, with silver being about the worst performer. But, this too will pass. It's Comex price fixing is totally divorced from reality.

Cavan ManR Powell#9057612/02/02; 17:40:00

Hi Rich. I do believe that was the core of Batra's prognostication. None will recall my grisly prediction here at USAG for hyperinflation followed by same.
silvercollectorA story I told my son over the week-end (modified only slightly)#9057712/02/02; 17:41:39

"At about the time of World War I gold was valued at $20.67 an onze. My grandmother saved everything she could get her hands on. Some members of the family had her pegged as a miser, others called her frugal. She had an old shoebox where she hide her valuables, rumor had it there was a new hiding spot each day. In the box one day went a $20 bill and a pure gold one-onze coin. The 'value'of each article at that moment was 20 dollars. Twenty dollars would buy groceries for the entire family for a week or dinner for two at a very classy restaurant, one that my grandmother would never dream of.

She passed away in 1993 and handed her worldly possessions to her sons and daughters. She didn't have alot and thus the family waited patiently for the opening of the 'shoebox'. The shoebox contained some tired jewellery, a couple nick-nacks, mostly junk but at the bottom was the $20 bill and the gold coin. The $20 bill was still of course just that, but over time it had devalued, shrunk. It buys groceries for a small family for a day or buys diner for two at a greasy spoon. The gold maintained its value, it still buys groceries for a week or buys dinner for two at a very classy restaurant.

So the next time you hear of your grandmother putting (3) $100 bills in a 'shoebox' tell her to put an onze of gold in it instead !"

Buena Fedeflation ......., yo momma#9057812/02/02; 17:43:45

Prechter and deflation ........

you mean the $'s purchasing power is going to gain ?

give me a break ....

the only reason the US had a deflation after the last big-bubble pop ('29) was because the authorities recognised early enough that GOLD'S purchasing power was compounding so they chained the $ to the au-wagon by "govy-decree" and got a free ride!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

this time the gold wagon will not except any hanger's on!! (By international decree!!!!!!nudge nudge, wink wink, say no more, say no more)

so as GOLD'S purchasing power revs up, ol' $ is left smokin in the dust.


Buena Feboo boo#9057912/02/02; 18:01:07

whoops ... should be "accept" not except.
R PowellCavan Man#9058012/02/02; 18:03:35

Like Randy and yourself, my opinion for the final event has also always been massive inflation. The picture and events keep changing but that still appears the outcome. I need to reread my copy of White's "Return of Bigfloat".
I find it intriguing and fascinating following the predictions and rationals for same from so many who all seem to have the direction right but who have not foreseen all the detours along the way. Obviously, no one can see it all but the detours and timing delays don't seem to alter the final destination, do they? Gold and silver will prove their worth whether or not (or to what degree) the economy falters. I can not envision any outcome that will keep the POS down for much longer other than perhaps an incredibly cheap to produce substitute. Anyway, I do, as I think we all do, love watching events unfold. I also wouldn't mind a little bit of that old time fiat profit from our efforts! Lately, my bright spot hasn't been silver but soybeanoil.

R PowellRereading#9058112/02/02; 18:17:48

Perhaps it is also a good time to reread Batra's book. I've been rereading "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" but that can wait, as I've read it almost as many times as I've seen the original Star Trek episodes.
Sometimes, for fun, I take the time machine back a year or three to reread the USAGold forum. There have been more than a few words written here!

CoBra(too)Scientia Est Potentia -#9058212/02/02; 18:25:49

Wisdom (Information)is Power - is the official logo of IAO, the Information Awareness Office of the US-Government. IAO will seek to establish every and all personal data on a global basis. "Echelon" seems to fade to oblivion in view of the universal, though personalized espionage on all.

A brutal awakening, leaving George Orwell's "1984", where Big Brother is watching you and any other conspiracy theories way behind current reality.

Relax, it's still a project, though already budgeted for 5 years in advance. Relax? - While the Patriot Act, Homeland Security and all the sabre rattling against international terrorism and, of course, Iraq and other evil satanic states are diversions from reality.

Economic unprecedented insanity - the delusions of today to spend the recession away by consumption on ever cheaper credit - will take its toll on reality; Reality, as in real capital investment - an investment 'class' totally disregarded - except, of course, in the "mal"-investment class of late.

The fact that the remaining superpower, the US is dependent on perusing 70% of global savings, the only real source of capital expenditures in the long run, to keep its predatory monetary system afloat may turn out a Vegas style gamble. While the stronger rest of the global monetary fiat systems are at odds to add to the demise of the hegemonial currency - weaker links, start to retaliate in defaults.

Others, strong in the knowledge of the value of their basic products are revising alternate means of "payment".

... It's too late to gamble - protect yourself with real value and put it into deep storage - at least we've learned how to term it - though I suspect the meaning is different -as, maybe Deutsche Bank already has found out?

I don't know, do you? cb2

RobotGuyLemme try my hand at this old Haiku thingy,..#9058312/02/02; 18:27:36

For three hours I toiled in this hidden stream,
Up to my elbows in mud,
To aquire two tiny flakes with an eternity of meaning.


RobotGuy - - - I hope I stuck to the Haiku laws.

Cavan ManR Powell#9058412/02/02; 18:32:06

How does one learn how to trade commodity futures? You know I am not speaking of AG or AU.
Cavan Man@ CB (too)#9058512/02/02; 18:33:56

That 100 acres in Ireland is beckoning. Now, if we could have a little help from our friends ;>)..Kind regards..CM
RobotGuyOoops! After a little internet research I discovered that my previous post may be in vain. Please allow me to redeem myself!!#9058612/02/02; 18:41:27

Hours I toiled
Elbows in mud
Two tiny flakes

RobotGuy - - - Perhaps that is a little closer to the Laws of Haiku!


RobotGuyJapan eyes weak yen to aid economy--- Eyeing Gold even more?#9058712/02/02; 18:58:45


Finance Minister Masajuro Shirokawa, hoping to jump-start an export-led recovery, told the Mainichi newspaper that the dollar should strengthen considerably, to as high as 150 to 160 yen. That would represent a 30 percent decline in the value of the yen from current levels.

end snippit.

AristotleSir Buena Fe#9058812/02/02; 19:49:07

I could nit-pick on a few of the parts, but not on the gist of your 90578's sum total. The sound you're hearing is my standing ovation.

Au. Acquire all allowable. --- Aristotle

goldfoolMonday's Market Wrap Up - Puplava#9058912/02/02; 19:55:14

They have tried hard to keep the price of gold down, but have been unsuccessful. They have tried to short, sell and keep the price of gold equities from rising. They have capped the rally temporarily but they won't be able to prevent the metals from rallying in the long run. Anyone who knows how to read and is in the financial markets knows what those speeches meant two weeks ago. The Fed is changing its policy of one of fighting inflation to one of creating inflation. The misnomer here is that the Fed was in the inflation fighting business when in fact it is the creator of all inflation. The problem the Fed has is that as fund managers have exited the bond markets to bid up stocks the bond market has been plunging with rates back up towards their October highs. The 30-year bond yield has risen from a low of 4.63 percent in September to today's yield of 5.05 percent. The 10-year note has gone from a low of 3.569 percent on October 9th to today's 4.231 percent. What this means is that it is getting more expensive to borrow. It has helped to soften the real estate market and it will eventually impact the refi market, the source of all of this consumption. The bond market isn't the only problem the Fed has to face it may also have to start monetizing all of the governments debt. The official debt limit of $6.45 trillion is about one month away from being breached. Passed late spring, the debt limit has been raised by $450 billion. There is only about $60 billion of that left. This means that when Congress returns after the holiday recess, they will have to raise the debt limit by another trillion dollars just to be safe. Who is going to finance these deficits? It is a question that currency investors and bond vigilantes are monitoring closely. We certainly live in interesting times. Stay tuned for this is going to get more interesting.
goldfoolTHE FABULOUS DESTINY OF ALAN GREENSPAN by Bill Bonner#9059012/02/02; 20:15:43

This week marks an important anniversary.

"How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions, as they have in Japan over the past decade?" asked the Fed chairman, when he was still mortal. The occasion was a black-tie dinner at the American Enterprise Institute in December - five years ago.

"We as central bankers," Greenspan continued, "need not be concerned if a collapsing financial asset bubble does not threaten to impair the real economy, its production, jobs, and price stability. But we should not underestimate or become complacent about the complexity of the interactions of the asset markets and the economy. Thus, evaluating shifts in balance sheets generally, and in asset prices particularly, must be an integral part of the development of monetary policy."

Mortals make mistakes. But Greenspan was right on target in '96. It was later, after he became a demi-god, the "Maestro," that the Fed chief erred.

In 1996, the bear market of '73-74 and the crash of '87 were still functioning as caution signs. Greenspan spoke on the evening of the 5th. On the morning of the 6th, markets reacted. Investors in Tokyo the Nikkei Dow a 3% loss for the day, its biggest drop of the year. Hong Kong fell almost 3%. Frankfurt 4%. London 2%. But by the time the sun rose in New York, where the Fed chairman was better known, investors had decided not to care. After a steep drop in the first half-hour, as overnight sell orders were executed, the market began a rebound and never looked back. By the spring of the year 2,000, the Dow had almost doubled from the level that had so concerned the Fed chairman.

But while the maestro was alarmed at Dow 6,437, he was serene at Dow 11,722. Fatal to Greenspan's judgment was a combination of bad information, bad theory and a human nature that - though unchanged for many millennia - seems to have avoided the notice of central bankers.

timbervisionHaiku#9059112/02/02; 20:35:21

Hungry. Snow covers
Hidden midden hoardings
Sleeping again. Full.

Cavan ManSmallpox vaccinations (are you ready for this)#9059212/02/02; 20:54:22

Thoughts on relocation destinations anyone?

Vaccination for 1 million in US
From Roland Watson in Washington and Charles Bremner in Paris

A MILLION Americans will be given smallpox vaccinations under the first wave of a mass inoculation order being prepared by President Bush.
The initial stage of the decision would see 500,000 military personnel and 510,000 civilian medical workers receive the jab.

A second step would involve up to ten million frontline workers such as police, the emergency services, and other healthcare staff who would be the first to respond to a bioterrorism attack.

The smallpox vaccine would then be made available to any member of the public who wanted one, although it would be accompanied with warnings of the health risks involved and would not be recommended by the authorities.

Mr Bush is expected to publish the details in the next few days after months of agonising. One to three people in the initial wave of one million recipients are likely to die from side-effects of the vaccine, according to estimates by health experts, and dozens of others will contract life-threatening illnesses.

sector@R Powell Inflation or Deflation?#9059312/02/02; 20:54:53

Prechter's Deflation and Wrong-Headed Philosophy of Precious Metals "TA"

A scientist cannot pick and choose the data that supports his or her thesis from a continuous data stream such as dates on a calendar.

This is exactly what Elliot and Prechter do when they speak of technical analysis of precious metals. Their fibonacci numbers, teacups, fhead and shoulders patterns are and were useless as predictors during the historical period of gold standard fixed prices. Where were the waves and flags then?

These august gentlemen would have us believe that they can cherry pick their way through financial history using only those data that fit their preconceived ideas such as "Greed and Fear" being the only market dynamics.

Prechter and Elliot fail to realize that government has another agenda for precious metals and greed and fear are joined by government objectives as a third market dynamic.

In physics there is the three-body problem...the problem of predicting the future positions of gravitationally bound systems. Newtonian trajectories are successful in two body problems but never three. Things get unpredictable because irreversable mechanisms are set into play. Chaos theory.

Thus, these gentlemen offer pricing theories that are defunct for precious metals at the outset. They are far too simplistic. Adherents overlook the role of government and fiat money.

These theories have merit in uncomplicated buyer seller markets as they are two-body, "Gravitational" problems.

As for Prechter's deflation, the inflation adjusted share price of Homestake went up by three to five times during the Great Depression. This is because the price was fixed and couldn't go down even if the market wanted it to...which it didn't.

Stop worrying about deflation somehow draining pog. There is only one force holding gold down and that's the action of the central banks to sell their gold.

The intelligent world knows this and is buying.

Cavan ManUSAG90592#9059412/02/02; 20:55:57

Read the fine print please.

" in three likely to die..." Surely this is an exaggeration?
Cavan Mansector#9059512/02/02; 21:02:28

FWIW, I agree with you. Although I think Sinclair is a stand up guy, I cannot be convinced (yet anyway) that TA can be used to chart the destiny of something that is so obviously influenced by those with a different score card.
If one agrees the game is rigged than how can one predict with any certainty the timing, variety and gravity of negative influences to effect price movement? Am I making sense?

PS: Could smallpox vaccinations possibly take out a third?

Black BladeAs U.S. ages, fears of a long bear market #9059612/02/02; 21:09:34


A new study of American demographic patterns and the stock market predicts that while the market may rally periodically, its overall direction will be downward until around 2018. This bearish forecast is based on a model devised by three finance professors - John Geanakoplos of Yale, Michael Magill of the University of Southern California and Martine Quinzii of the University of California, Davis. In a study titled "Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market" , they report that their model has done a good job of explaining the bull and bear markets of the last century. But its accuracy as a forecasting tool is untested. The professors' approach is complex, but it depends on a simple indicator: the ratio of the number of middle-aged people to the number of young adults in the population. When this ratio rises, the overall market's price/earnings ratio will rise, too, the professors predict. When the age ratio declines, as it is expected to do until about 2018, the P/E will also decline. Demographics are the most critical factor in determining long-term market trends, they say, because investment behavior largely depends on age-related patterns. Younger adults, from 20 to 39, are generally consumers. Middle-aged people, 40 to 59, tend to invest in stocks. Retirees are more likely to sell stocks than buy them. The major influence on American markets over the next two decades will be the aging of the baby boomers, the approximately 79 million people born in the United States from 1945 to 1965. This generation has about 27 million more people than the one that preceded it, and about 10 million more than the one that followed.

Black Blade: Interesting article. We are probably three years into a secular Bear Market and that suggests that we may have several years to go before the Bear Market turns into a Bull. I haven't really considered the theory outlined in the article before except how a large aging populace will impact certain sectors (i.e. medical, pharmaceutical, and real estate). I'll have to think on this for a while. Hmmm…

BTW, speaking of a Bear Market, I have more information on the coming energy crisis that I hope to post in the next few days. Any company that depends on energy will suffer greatly (not to mention consumers pocket books). Energy comoanies already are well aware of this fact and are patiently biding their time with the knowledge that a crushing energy crisis will hammer the economy this next year - and the worst part of it is that it is absolutely inevitable. Meanwhile I am pulling a lot of info together so stay tuned (as it were). Actually a crushing energy crisis will be a thing of beauty as there will be a sense of "Darwinism" here and a chance to observe human nature along with fiscal "natural selection". Sure the Lemmings will suffer, however, those who prepare will be much better positioned to watch and learn vicariously.

R PowellCavan Man#9059712/02/02; 21:24:51

"How does one learn to trade commodity futures?"

Wow! Some quick answers come to mind like- very painfully and very slowly.
I'm totally autodidactic concerning the commodities markets. My interest was sparked by a mail ad which tried to incite greed with a simplified explanation of the extreme leverage available through futures and options. It worked. I've been learning ever since but it's been the fun of learning more than monetary rewards which have keep me going. I quickly learned that even correct predictions of supply and demand, boiling down to either more or less leftover (carryover) which usually indicate price movement- even this is but one factor of the puzzle. Politics, currency exchanges, price manipulation, price subsidies and all the intangibles that determine different countries economies along with the world economic picture come into play. Most all commodities have been in long term bear markets almost in opposition to the stock market mania of the 1990s. In one sense, this has been more of a price determining factor than actual supply and demand over the last few years. The same elements involved with the POG and POS apply to commodities in general. Gold is indeed an awesome economic indicator (whether manipulated or not!).
My study has become a passion which has both good and bad consequences on my life. Perhaps this is something better understood by goldbugs than most people. Gold and silver enthusiasts will also understand better than most that total disclosure of all the facts necessary to make an intelligent guess at future price predictions is not always forthcoming with other commodities as well. China has been the subject of silver dishoarding lately but China is also either the first or second leading producer of cotton depending on what numbers one chooses to believe.

I know from your words here that you have a great deal of economic knowledge. This is part of the game. Trading has many approaches, technical chart reading, cyclical and seasonal views, astrological predictions, predictions from different indicators or COT reports etc. Because enough traders use technicals, they become self-fulfilling whether "correct" or not. I try to judge based on the fundamentals of supply and demand which I believe will prevail eventually in all markets. When? How long did the communists countries survive? How long will the fiat credit expansion last? No one knows and there are no perfect systems, only systems which sometimes work under certain conditions.

Depending upon your knowledge of commodity trading, there are numerous books available, starting with perhaps, "How the Futures Markets Work" by Bernstein (basic information) all the way to mathematical explanations of the Black-Scholes and other systems that supposedly do not fail (Long Term Capital Management!). There are government reports daily, weekly and monthly for agricultural products. There are government sites where color coded satilite vegetation pictures are available with corresponding previous year pictures for comparison. I once followed soil moisture content in most of the cotton growing states for a whole growing season. They are listed by county. I correctly predicted 16-17 million bales when the USDA was calling for 20 million. I lost money on my trades as the U.S. dollar made our exports too costly in the global market and all commodities were falling in price. I relate this to show the extent to which one can go but, once again, I know you've done this with gold so you understand. It's my opinion that both gold and silver are the hardest to fully understand, by far. I think that silver does not trade and hasn't for years on any considerations of supply and demand but eventually she will have to.

I can recommend more books if your interested that focus more intently on commodity trading depending upon what knowledge of futures you want. It's a never ending learning process, great fun and extremely dangerous unless you limit youself to buying options only. Options bought, whether puts or calls risk no more than the up front, one time premium but there are more strategies involved that require more risk. Contrary to popular belief, there is no statistical evidence that writing (selling) options is more profitable than buying them but writing them as with a long or short futures position is extremely dangerous without precise money management procedures. The leverage works both ways, the potential for outrageous profit means someone took an outrageous loss (actually probably many someones).

Other than internet contact, I'm entirely self-taught and alone on a physical basis as I don't know anyone with any interest or knowledge of commodities let alone involved in trading commodities. I was abruptly shown the door at all the large financial firms (well know large nation wide firms included) as soon as commodity rather then stock trading was mentioned. I opened a self directed account with a Chicago based firm offering low commissions. There were numerous disclosure forms to fill out and, emphasis here please! with good reason! There is as much tomfoolery with commodities as there is (only recently revealed to some) with the stock market.

A fellow named Journeyman used to post here and claimed to have been a professional gambler of sorts. He talked of the differences among saving, investing and gambling at length. I believe that money invested as the result of research is more than gambling but is still, and always is, money at risk. It is a zero sum game and always a gamble. It is, perhaps, on a risk basis the antithesis of physical gold-in-hand ownership but both are connected (to the dismay of many!) and both can exist peacefully together. I trade and also treasure my physical silver.

There is a weekly commodity newspaper called "Consensus" which gives information and opinions on the markets. M.K. has mentioned an interest one analyst often found here, for gold, stock and general economy thoughts. It is a good source, although one of many, as is the internet.
I don't know how much more I can say without sounding as if I'm promoting someone or something which I'm not. Beware, there are as many shysters in the commodity game looking to part you from your money as there are in the stock market. However, if you do enter, start extremely slowly and use common sense. Beware of your biggest enemies, your own fear and greed.

From Gallacher's "Winner Take All"

Don't put your hope in ungodly men, or
Be a slave to what someone else believes.
If you need somebody you can trust,
Trust yourself.

--Bob Dylan

Black BladeCould disaster strike twice?#9059812/02/02; 21:30:51{62CC0032-4AA2-4CC4-A540-D3633CD72D5E}

Few today think the U.S. can fall into deflation. They once said the same in Japan


In 1995, Japanese experts watched in disbelief as the nation slid into deflation. Economists insist conditions are different in the U.S. But the similarities -- low interest rates, high debt levels and falling prices -- suggest the threat is real. All are quick to cite the Japanese experience but nearly all are also quick to rule it out as a real possibility. It can't happen here, they say. That, of course, is exactly what the Japanese thought. Meanwhile, in the United States, Alan Greenspan and other economists in the Federal Reserve have made an effort to openly discuss the threat of deflation, though the mantra they keep repeating is: "Yes, it's a threat but don't worry, it won't actually happen."

The comparisons, derided only a year or two ago as scaremongering, now don't look so far-fetched:

- Stock market crash? Check

- Bond yields near historic lows? Check.

- Interest rates close to zero with little room left to move? Check.

- A strong currency? Check.

- High corporate and personal indebtedness? Check.

- Goods price deflation first? Check.

- The looming competitiveness of China? Check.

- Consensus it can't actually happen here? Check.

"Is it a mere coincidence that changes in U.S. equity market capitalization, long-term [interest] rates and the government bond yield curve closely resemble those in Japan in the 1990s?" Tetsufumi Yamakawa, chief Japanese economist at Goldman Sachs in Tokyo, wrote in a report recently. "What is beginning to happen in the United States seems to be déja-vu from Japan's perspective."

Black Blade: Indeed, the comparisons are compelling. I also notice that the Fed governors are all suddenly on the speech circuit and almost to a man (and woman) are talking down the threat of deflation as if on cue. The US is walking on the razors edge – one misstep on one side and it is deflation, firing up the presses pushing hard the other way means a weaker US dollar and inflation (I am still leaning toward stagflation – partly due to the coming energy crisis this next year), and if the Fed overshoots there even exists the possibility of hyperinflation (albeit a small risk in my opinion, but who knows with these "rocket scientists"). In all, a good article to read.

Buena Febarn yard banter#9059912/02/02; 21:45:12

Thanks for noting ... Aristotle (12/02/02; 19:49:07MT - msg#: 90588)

and kudos to you Professor Von sector (12/02/02; 20:54:53MT - msg#: 90593)

you did a much better job of toasting "ta-theories" of certain well meaning folk.

.........."Things get unpredictable because irreversable mechanisms are set into play. Chaos theory.

Thus, these gentlemen offer pricing theories that are defunct for precious metals at the outset. They are far too simplistic. Adherents overlook the role of government and fiat money..........."

R Powellsector#9060012/02/02; 21:57:49

I mentioned Prechter's book after the rising CRB and the inflation index you follow were mentioned.
Both these indicate a rising price of goods and we all know that the governement has been inflating money/credit/debt by all the means at their disposal. I wondered if Prechter had changed his thoughts any as these indications certainly do not agree with his opinion that deflation was imminent in both money supply in motion and as seen in falling consumer goods prices. I mentioned Prechter, I never advocated his prognostication. (good word, CM, I like it).

I also agree entirely with your thoughts on technical analysis as being so much bunk. I've found, however, that when enough traders believe that a market will react according to these technical indicators, their belief- expressed through their limit orders, usually gives the price movements some temporary credence to the technical predictions. They become self-fulfilling, even if only very temporally. Most technical traders are day or short term traders (scalpers). People move markets, people can sometimes trade from fear or greed. This has nothing to do with the underlying fundamentals you mention, it's just a fact of life which we see in the stock market every day. Hint, never buy when Maria has a bad hair day. Again, nothing substantial but it is the way it is. This is why it has been said, "Markets are never wrong, opinions (people) are."

There is, of course, one foolproof method of market prediction which involves the sacrifice of a Rhode Island Red chicken under a new moon for entrail reading but this is an almost forgotten art.

AnanseSmallpox etc.#9060112/02/02; 21:58:34

The Center for Disease Control website contains information about Smallpox both for the general public and medical professionals.

Timbervision, thanks for the response regarding The Third Wave. I've only had time to scan - but now I'm curious so will look more closely as soon as possible.

Gandalf, thank you for your greeting. FYI, I'm a "Lady."

mikalRe: Black Blade#9060212/02/02; 22:07:35

"We are probably three years into a secular bear market and that suggests we may have several years to go before this bear turns into a bull." Why? I am led to believe it would take more than a "few" years of economic and social reactions and adjustments for a bull to reemerge. Aside from the influence of geopolitical and other fundamental imbalances.
Black BladeOil industry fears new attacks #9060312/02/02; 22:25:26


KUWAIT CITY -- In the skyscraping towers of Kuwait Petroleum Company, Capt. Saad al-Matouq points to a model of one of his tankers -- a 407,000-ton behemoth that carries 2 million barrels of oil. ''There's not much we can do if a speedboat loaded with explosives comes up to this,'' Matouq says. ''It's a big target. They can't miss.'' Even before the French tanker Limburg was rammed Oct. 6 off the coast of Yemen by a ''suicide speedboat,'' Matouq and others in the oil shipping industry feared their tankers were sitting ducks for terrorists waging economic jihad against Western nations. Since the attack, which crippled the ship, killed a crewmember and spewed out nearly 90,000 barrels of oil, tanker owners have stepped up precautions even further. Although they are reluctant to offer details, some ship owners reportedly have hired armed crews to patrol their ships and pick off terrorists trying to approach them. Others have suggested guns be mounted on the decks of tankers. Some are testing electrified ''cattle fences'' that lethally shock anyone trying to sneak on board. And a few others are considering remote-control devices that would turn off vessels seized by terrorists and direct them back to port. French experts believe Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda terrorist network was behind the attack on the Limburg. Saudi Arabian authorities, meanwhile, are reported to have averted an offensive this summer on a major oil pipeline and oil terminal complex there. The target, the Ras Tanura complex, is considered one of the single most important facilities in the oil industry. An al-Qaeda-connected cell in Kuwait, responsible for the recent killing of a U.S. Marine there, also is thought to have been planning an attack on an oil tanker.

Black Blade: The Ras Tanura complex would be a prime target as over 5 million bbl/day pass through the facility and an attack that disrupts that supply will lead to oil prices rocketing to record high levels. A major terrorist concern now is the 15,000+ SA-7 shoulder launch missiles scattered about and available on the black market for as low as $5,000 a piece. Civilian aircraft are "sitting ducks" for this threat and it's only a matter of time before US aircraft begin dropping out of the sky. "Interesting Times"

Aureo SpeedwagonHaiku syllabic pattern (for Robot Guy)#9060412/02/02; 22:26:04

Five! Seven! And Five!
Repeat the chant with me now:
Five! Seven! And Five!

Black BladeRe: mikal#9060512/02/02; 22:28:26

David Tice of the Prudent Bear Fund wrote a good piece on Secular Bear Markets. The short version is that secular bears run amok for about 20 years at a clip (before the Bull charges out of the gate). He did make a good case presented with past experiences.

- Black Blade

mikalMore sanctions proposed against N.Korea in escalating dispute#9060612/02/02; 22:33:04

December 2, 2002
N. Korea ships fuel, missiles to Yemen
By Bill Gertz
North Korea recently shipped missiles and fuel components to Yemen in a sign the Pyongyang government is continuing to act as the world's main missile supplier, The Washington Times has learned.....The missile shipment was sent from the port of Nampo two weeks ago aboard a freighter bound for Yemen and had been under surveillance for several weeks, according to U.S. intelligence officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity.....
The latest shipment is an indication that the use of sanctions against the hard-line communist country for its missile sales has not stopped the transfers. North Korea was hit with U.S. economic sanctions in August for a similar shipment of Scud missile components to Yemen. They block the state-run company, Changgwang Sinyong Corp., from doing business with the U.S. government or from obtaining licensed exports from here.
Yemen was not sanctioned because of the Sana'a government's support of the United States in the war on terrorism.The new shipment is expected to result in additional sanctions on North Korea, U.S. officials said.....Click link for more

Black BladeAPI sees new Congress considering omnibus energy reform as a top priority #9060712/02/02; 22:45:39


WASHINGTON, DC, Dec. 2 -- US congressional lawmakers still want to pass a sweeping energy reform bill that streamlines federal clean fuel rules and imposes a fuel ethanol mandate, according to oil and farm interests. "These issues did not go away, and this particular challenge will be a key driver of an energy bill," predicted Red Cavaney, president of the American Petroleum Institute."The fuels agreement and ethanol continue to enjoy strong bipartisan, bicameral support," said Bob Dineen, president of the Renewable Fuels Association. After 2 years of debate, Congress last month killed a sweeping energy reform bill before adjourning for the year.

A House energy bill passed in August 2001 largely mirrored a White House energy blueprint published the previous May, although one key difference between President George W. Bush's plan and the Republican-led House was over energy tax incentives. The president's energy plan did not advocate new tax incentives, while the House bill called for about $8 billion over 10 years for domestic drilling. A Senate bill, passed in April 2002, included about $4 billion for domestic production over the same period. It also included incentives for the construction of an Alaskan natural gas pipeline to the Lower 48 but did not address possible leasing of a portion of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), as the House bill did. A recent API analysis shows that current and anticipated state MTBE bans could put undue pressures on fuel delivery systems in the coming years, creating temporary fuel shortages and price spikes.

Black Blade: Too little too late. Looks like an energy crisis is in the works for this next year. The coming energy crisis will provide a lot of amusement for those of us who are entertained by human nature. The next energy crisis will make the last one seemingly insignificant. More interesting will be the curious antics of the primates on Capital Hill and in state governments as they attempt to point fingers and pass blame. I pointed out that events were leading up to an energy crisis prior to the last one and yet the same thing is happening again except there are a few additional variables that ensure the coming energy crisis will be much worse and the result is a crushing recession (the long feared "double dip"?). "Interesting Times"

R Powellsector // TA#9060812/02/02; 22:51:22

When I was first introduced to technical analysis I questioned whether price movements could be predicted with these means. It seemed to me then and still does that for any such method to be valid means (must mean) that the future price moves are somehow preordained- Preordained! This is basically a question of free-will or have all the events in the history of mankind been preordained. Can you step in front of a speeding train and not be hurt because it's not "your time"? Popycock? Of course.

I also noticed that chart patterns like "head and shoulders" can be made to appear or disappear by adjusting one or the other axis changing the scale of the chart. But if enough people believe... there was mass starvation throughout Europe right after the first millenium as so many people believed that the world would end that they enjoyed the harvest but did not plan for the winter after what they believed was the coming end of the world. Jimmy Jones in Jamestown with hundreds of believers dying voluntarily. Sometimes I think the technical boys just like to play the game but don't want to do the work (research). There are many reasons why people follow TA, but however misguided, if enough place their orders according to what many believe will happen.. then it sometimes does happen. They make it happen which begets more belief. It's all part of the game.
You would enjoy "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" if by chance you haven't read it.

Perhaps we can concoct some bedazzling technical theory to convince enough people to buy gold, all on the same day,... might as well make it the same time of day too... Hey, turn about is fair play!

davefingerHaiku?#9060912/02/02; 23:19:02

By daily life pressed
A loves touch, a glint of gold
My spirit renewed

Black BladeHarsh Winter, Economic Recovery Could Cause Natural Gas Shortage in U.S.#9061012/02/02; 23:33:16


Talk of a natural gas shortage seems strange. The fuel in 2002 has ranged from cheap to modestly priced, and there's more than usual natural gas in storage heading into winter. With plenty of supplies, a mild winter could erase recent increases in gas prices, which last week hovered around $4.25 per thousand cubic feet. But what if the winter is harsh, as some forecasters have predicted? And what if it's followed by a full-bore economic recovery that recharges the industrial sector, by far the largest natural gas consumer? Then a natural gas shortage could be upon us, warn industry experts and producers. "As the U.S. recovery really gets going and if we have a cold winter, we're going to see sharply higher natural gas prices," said Stephen Brown, director of energy economics for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. "In the next few years, we're going to hit some severe bottlenecks." Many energy executives expect to see higher gas prices sooner rather than later. Calvin Michelson, president of San Antonio natural gas operator EnRe, said he wouldn't be surprised to see post-winter gas prices at around $5.50. "It could last indefinitely -- for the next 24 to 36 months," he said. At the same time, experts say, natural gas production isn't adequate to keep up with the growing demands of a healthy economy, and it isn't expected to catch up anytime soon. "We're not drilling enough wells to go get it," said Jim Sigmon, CEO of the Exploration Co. of San Antonio. And then there are the usual factors that can roil volatile natural gas prices. "A hot summer will do it," Werner said, especially if supplies are depleted by a bitter winter.

Black Blade: We are very fortunate to be mired in a deepening recession. Otherwise energy costs would be unmanageable. Regardless there will be another energy crisis and this is especially true if we have a normal or colder winter than last year. Drill rig counts are still at very low levels and new production cannot catch up with current demand. A cold winter or an "economic recovery" will severely test the energy industry's ability to meet demand. As I said, we are very fortunate to be mired in a deepening recession. "Interesting Times"

ElGordoThe $810,400 Japanese Latte#9061112/02/02; 23:35:19

Tokyo, Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Investors who buy 100 million yen ($810,400) of Japanese treasury bills for three months earn enough to buy a cappuccino in a Tokyo café. Yet auctions in recent months have drawn bids for as much as 800 times the amount sold.

Bids averaged about 230 times the securities sold since February. The reason: savers, concerned the government will end blanket deposit insurance, have switched deposits to bigger banks from smaller ones, giving lenders extra cash to spend on so-called financing bills.

The Topix stock index is heading for its third annual loss, property prices have fallen for a decade and bad loans are growing faster than lenders can write them off, leaving government securities as one of the few profitable investments in Japan.

``If you don't want to lose your original investment, then bills and bonds are the only place to invest,'' said Toshifumi Umezawa, who helps manage 7 billion yen at BNP Paribas Asset Management.

On Sept. 18, investors bid a record 2,078 trillion yen, about four times the size of Japan's economy, for 2.5 trillion yen of three-month financing bills yielding an average 0.0011 percent. A 100 million yen investment in the bills would return about 300 yen at the three-month maturity -- about the cost of a tall coffee at a local Starbucks Corp. outlet.
Those housewives need to lug home more Gold!

Black BladeIt's a Tale of Two Economies in U.S.#9061212/02/02; 23:45:29


NEW YORK (Reuters) - It's a tale of two economies in the United States now as consumer spending again surprises with its resilience while the long-suffering factory sector shows scant signs of a meaningful recovery. Figures from a range of retailers over the Thanksgiving weekend suggested the crucial holiday shopping season got off to a better start than many feared. In part this was due to aggressive discounting which may squeeze profit margins, but it was still a relief to analysts who had feared consumers were wavering as the main supporters of the economy. In contrast, data out Monday showed manufacturers still retrenching and seeing little improvement in their depressed sector, despite expectations to the opposite, suggesting future growth in employment and business investment would be sluggish at best.

Black Blade: The operative word here is "profits". Strong sales due to deep discounts don't translate very well to "profits". Retailers are walking on a razors edge. Ya just gotta love the financial media though - it's all in the "spin". They do make all this rather "entertaining" as the Lemmings are being set up for another go.

ElGordoNatural Gas headed higher?#9061312/02/02; 23:54:21

Raymond James Energy Stat of the Week, published 12/2/2002.

The Energy Train Is Leaving The Station

Rarely (if ever) in the past ten years have we ever seen a convergence of bullish fundamental factors that give us as high a confidence level in as short of a time frame for higher natural gas prices.

We believe that there is a very high probability that U.S. natural gas prices move well above $5/Mcf (this means $7 or $8/Mcf is likely and double digit gas prices are not out of the question) in the next six to eight weeks.

More importantly, we are convinced the sustainability of these higher natural gas prices is much better than two years ago since 1) U.S. natural gas supply is falling at a much faster rate and 2) nearly 1/4 of all industrial natural gas consumers have already been eliminated over the past two years.

While there are clearly some short-term potential negatives such as warm weather swings, downward earnings revisions, and modest E&P budgets, we believe the strong move in natural gas will overwhelm these more temporary negative concerns.

That means investors should pay attention to that whistling in their ears since it is probably energy stocks leaving the station. All aboard?
@BB seems Raymond James agrees on your energy prediction.
With war looming and the winter getting colder-look out!

ElGordoOil Service Breakout?#9061412/3/02; 00:33:30$OSX,uu[d,a]dbclyyay[d20020628,20021228][pc20!c50!i][vc60][iLb4!Lb8!Lh14,3!Lc5]&pref=G

This chart looks good for drillers. Nat Gas increase looming.
Looks like its going to be a cold winter.

Gold will get a boost from energy increases. IMO

ElGordoInfo on Natural Gas and weather looks to get colder soon!#9061512/3/02; 00:54:55

These charts show cold weather forecast: North America

ElGordoSmall temp fall can impact gas prices greatly#9061612/3/02; 01:14:42

Perhaps her most influential role -- economically speaking -- is in the less tangible arena of the mineral marketplace where a variation of just 4 degrees Fahrenheit, under ripe conditions, can triple the price of natural gas, according to the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration.
ElGordoVenezuela strike extended#9061712/3/02; 02:44:32

Opposition groups in Venezuela, who staged a general strike throughout the country on Monday, say they are extending the stoppage for a further 24 hours.

The leader of Venezuela's main trades unions, Carlos Ortega, said they were continuing with the strike because of government intransigence.

The strike, the fourth major stoppage this year, was called to put pressure on President Hugo Chavez to agree to a referendum on whether he should remain in office.
Lets see if this affects oil shipments to the US.
If it continues for more than a couple days, it could.

Black BladeUS Market Futures Go Negative#9061812/3/02; 03:06:03

US market index futures turn negative, USD is flat, Gold is flat, and oil is solidly higher. Could get "entertaining" at the open in New York. Al Qaeda has issued a warning to Israel tonight stating that "Israelis will live a year in fear". So what else is new. Apparently the threat has been verified (whatever that means). UN inspectors popped into one of Saddam's palaces causing some confused looks on the faces of guards. This could get "interesting".

- Black Blade

Black BladeEuropean Markets Start Off Negative#9061912/3/02; 03:10:29

Euro markets are solidly in negative territory tonight.

- Black Blade

Black BladeInsurers: JP Morgan 'Deceived' Over Enron#9062012/3/02; 03:24:56


NEW YORK (Reuters) - J.P Morgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) "tricked, deceived and defrauded" a group of insurers into guaranteeing about $2 billion of finance deals with Enron Corp. (OTC:ENRNQ.PK), attorneys representing the insurers said on Monday, as a trial to decide who picks up the cost of the failed deals got under way. The much-awaited trial, in New York federal court, is expected to last three weeks. Arguments presented by the two sides should shine a light on how the now-bankrupt Enron worked with its financiers. J.P. Morgan is looking to recoup about $1 billion in so-called surety bond coverage, which insurers issued to guarantee the deals, saying the insurers understood the deals and guaranteed them unconditionally. The group of 10 or so insurers, including Chubb Corp. (NYSE:CB) and Hartford Financial Services Group (NYSE:HIG), says it was misled over the true nature of the deals, and would not have issued coverage if it had known all the details. J.P. Morgan "tricked, deceived and defrauded (the insurers) into giving the surety bond," Alan Levine, attorney for the insurance companies, said in his opening statement of the trial. "Not for a real commercial contract, but for a bogus, sham transaction on paper that was just ... a disguised loan."

Black Blade: I see investor lawsuits over JP Morgan Chase fraud when I look into my crystal ball. This trial has only just started and reportedly has been a treasure trove of information that will likely lead to several lawsuits against JP Morgan Chase. Looks like a lotta fun!

ElGordoMarketwatch Gold Buzz#9062112/3/02; 03:40:48

Lots of video from Calandra on Gold.
SpartacusGlobal reflation ?#9062212/3/02; 03:44:30

"Time for a switch to global reflation", by Haruhiko Kuroda and Masahiro Kawai. The writers are vice-minister and deputy vice-minister for international affairs at the Japanese ministry of finance.

--Monetary policymakers around the world are still fighting the old enemy of inflation, not the new foe of deflation. There is an urgent need to switch to global reflation in order to avoid a deflationary spiral.--

Spartacus: Will the big three start to reflate in tandem a la Tlaga ?

Black BladeGerman finance minister sees winter joblessness `clearly' over sensitive 4 million mark#9062312/3/02; 03:59:35


BERLIN (AP) -- Germany's finance minister said Tuesday he expects the number of people out of work in Europe's biggest economy to climb "clearly" over the politically sensitive 4 million mark this winter. Hans Eichel, addressing parliament a day ahead of the release of November unemployment figures, defended the center-left government's economic record as he told parliament that "this winter, the jobless figure will again exceed 4 million, and I fear clearly so." In October, 3.93 million Germans were out of work -- a jobless rate of 9.4 percent, down from 9.5 percent in September. While the figure was down from the previous month, it was more than 200,000 higher than in October last year.

Black Blade: The German "Bone Pile" grows. The German economy is in dire straits and is unlikely to adhere to the conditions of the Maastricht treaty. Italy, Greece and Spain are also likely to violate terms. This should get quite "entertaining".

Brett WoodsGold, Moonbeams, POG and Chiropracty#9062412/3/02; 04:41:56

I had been looking for more upward pressure at this time with $325.20+ before this pull back but I had forgotten to throw in the astrological factor of Venus overshadowing us and blocking the influence of Mars (ha ha...No really!) I had penciled in the influence of Venus calming the waters and lowering the price of gold in early October and waning by 3rd week November but the Jps java model I was using seems not that accurate long term and Venus is overhead still and blocking the influence of Mars. There are also unusual symmetries forming with Jupiter and Mercury, nothing as unusual as the planetary symmetries that occurred in the summer of 1968 but perhaps indicating a time of significance. Today and tomorrow the moon is involved too.

Jps model indicates that we move to about 13 months of no planets interfering with the Sun's high energy influence. Sunspot activity hits that part of the cycle where it stops being so influential IMObs in September 2003 (68% to the trough), but until that time and after, no planets will be running interference so the unsettling effects of high energy bombardment should persist. Bizarre as it sounds, I've found this stuff to be more predictive than Elliot wave theory. (And certainly more deeply rooted in Science than the palpations of Chiropracty ;)

HenriCavan Man#9062512/3/02; 05:16:40

Commodities? It is said 95% of newbies lose their money. Even if they do paper trade and do well on paper before commiting fiat to the task. My experience in the greatest bull market in grains ever was that most of my long positions were taken out by volatility swings resulting in my not returning to these markets ever. There too you will find footprints of giants. When put/call ratios become extreme'someone is in for a fleecing. If you obtain a broker, you can improve the odds of making moey by doing the exact opposite of what the broker recommends.

Good luck where I had none (Except I did make a small bit on gold calls that expired in the money...not enough to cover the losses).

GoldnSilver2002gold floor 317#9062612/3/02; 07:16:25

Forget about t/a,it simply cannot cover the many varied geo political factors.For example when al queda accomplish their next sept 11th how will t/a explain the astronomical rise in p.o.g?Look at the charts,despite the amazing rise in the dow through fed pumping gold held 317.What does that mean?Insiders buy gold at 317 knowing the american media is lying.Gold is getting ready to explode and next year(january) reality sets in as debt laden consumers read bad numbers after bad numbers and say wow,im technically broke and i may get laid off.Wow they have promised recovery next quarter for 3 years!Europe is onto your game now Mr fed,deceiving the american people will not be enough anymore.All aboard!Last call on the GOLD express.
Au-someHaiku#9062712/3/02; 07:22:58

Christmas bells ringing
Gold tossed into a kettle
Anonymous joy

Hipplebeckau-some#9062812/3/02; 07:33:19

your haiku was beautiful
Cavan ManFortune Mag 2003 Investment Guide#9062912/3/02; 08:00:59

December 9 Issue

Can't believe no one has mentioned this issue yet. I have a copy on my desk and on the cover, front and center is a large stack of gold kilo bars. No mention though of actually buying gold that I could find though I haven't read it thru and thru. The sublimnal emphasis would appear to be on buying gold itself but the issue is devoted to seeking investment anchors in stormy financial seas. My anchor is golden. 'Tis the only logical and rational choice.
Cavan ManPardon moi#9063012/3/02; 08:02:09

Gimli_Good Article On Saudi Oil and Dollar Support#9063112/3/02; 08:33:11


Cheap oil

First and foremost, they supply oil to the U.S., Europe and Japan in great quantity, at very low prices. Today, oil sells for $25 US a barrel. Bin Laden asserts the West is robbing Arabia's resources: oil, he insists, should cost $300 a barrel.

The Saudis buy huge quantities of advanced U.S. arms they cannot use and mostly keep in storage: $40 billion US from 1993-2000. These purchases keep American military production lines open, reduce costs of U.S. weapons, and employ large numbers of highly paid defence workers in key electoral states. The Saudis keep at east $100 billion US in the American financial system, with big chunks in government debt.

Buena FeBlack Blade (12/3/02; 03:24:56MT - msg#: 90620) re:JPM#9063212/3/02; 08:56:33

here's an outside the box analogy for yah;

jpm is likened to pharaoh, who was overcome with greed and followed after moses to get back the treasure (much gold) that he had begrudgingly given to the irealites.

pharaoh followed right into the red sea trap and was destroyed, just like jpm walked right into this trail in hot pursuit of a billion, not expecting to be put under a spot-light by a judge who has the guts to allow a jury to hear all the dirty dealings!!!!!!!

i believe that the ramifications of this trial (exposure) will eventually take down jpm and may be one of the catalysts that takes down the current world monetary system (read US$).

call me crazy ... but don't call me shirley (1st airplane movie ha ha)

go gatagold

sectorJPM, COMEX and the End of the Strong Dollar#9063312/3/02; 09:19:35

The Perfect Fall Guy will fall

Could there be a meaner, badder fall guy chump than JPMorgan Chase?

The Fed certainly knows this and will simply nationalize the bank's obligations at the appointed time...

Which will be the same moment that the Stronjg Dollar ends, the COMEX precious metals contracts are terminated and gold rockets upward.

This will necessarily happen under the obscuring fog of war and the sweetening effects of its spoils...

...IF all goes to plan.

However, judging by the current leaks from within the White House, those military and financial plans may be a tad oil resource, too far.

RobotGuySorry - - - Aureo Speedwagon (12/02/02; 22:26:04MT - msg#: 90604)#9063412/3/02; 09:30:08

I have lost all ability to string together meaningful and accurate Haiku! ButI can still play the guitar! Guess I'm stuck to lead!



USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...)#9063512/3/02; 09:48:44

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Skillful Investors

Just as the primary trend in gold is up as shown by our nearby
graph, the primary trend in stocks is down. If you diversify your
portfolio with gold, you not only gain by being in gold, you gain what
you would have lost in the stock market. Richard Russell, the
well-regarded long-time investment analyst who has correctly and
consistently forecasted the direction of both markets, says the stock
market and gold will cross in the 2000 to 3000 area
. Think about that
for a moment. What will that mean to your portfolio if not properly
diversified with gold? What will it mean if it is?

Gold for you is an easy phone call away.

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

TownCrierThe situation with stocks -- still not a bargain#9063612/3/02; 09:59:57

Jim Puplava gave the following assessment which remains today:

"A current price-earnings multiple of 22 on the Dow, 33 on the S&P 500, and 37 on the NASDAQ 100 (the NASDAQ Composite has no P/E ratio since it has negative earnings) would hardly be considered a bargain. Historically, the major stock indexes have sold at 12-14 times earnings throughout the last century. At bear market bottoms, they have gotten as low as 7-10 times earnings.

"The real issue here is the quality of earnings and what high P/E multiples really mean. If we take the current P/E on the three major averages, the Dow is offering investors a 4.6% return. The S&P 500 is offering a return of 3% and the Nasdaq 100 earnings yield is 2.7%. These returns are not commensurate with the risk involved in investing in today's volatile and high-risk market.

"You often hear the reason dividends are so low is because companies choose to invest profits to expand the business instead of paying shareholders in the form of a dividend. This may have been true, but the next question should be, How well did management reinvest your money? ...profits were squandered in mergers, stock buybacks and option schemes for top executives that fleeced the shareholders."

----------(excerpts from the url given above)-------

You worked hard for your money. Be sure you have something to show for it. Gold can yet be had at bargain prices for the self-minded investor. Call USAGOLD-Centennial today.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A good treasure never goes out of style#9063712/3/02; 10:18:57

Golden Goal

"Treasure chests throughout history
have been filled with gold, and not by idle choice."

-- R. Strauss

Buena FeJPM against a jury#9063812/3/02; 10:20:32

i don't think jpm stands a chance against a jury of "everyday real folk" (not a spite)

against a judge they may have gotten their way, "chalk it up to technical "financial accounting engineering"

BUT ....

the jury folk are going to say ... "hey we can't get a way with this in the "real world" (maybe wish we could), so we say you can't/shouldn't either!"

a nation of oneRe: Cavan Man (12/3/02; 08:00:59MT - msg#: 90629)#9063912/3/02; 10:43:00

The picture of gold bars on the cover of Fortune magazine, without any obvious textual references to gold, is characteristic of the way in which national publications often treat sensitive but important issues. Right now, in the minds of most, it would be unusually brave to state openly that gold is a good investment. And the publisher will be able to maintain that no recommendation was given, if gold goes down. But if it goes up, which we all believe that it will, then the same publisher will be able to say, "Well, we printed an obvious picture of gold on our cover. Wasn't that enough to give you the idea?" Indeed, many do get the idea that way, especially the well informed, and those who strive to be well informed, and that is the intention. In this way, those who keep their eyes open can glean, from signals such as this, which trends are likely to occur or increase in strength. Other magazines also follow this same practice. It is not uncommon to have to read an entire long article, in some magazines, about one important subject or another, just to be able to find out what the real message is. And often one or two really meaningful sentences about the subject will be contained in just one brief paragraph, underestimated or completely overlooked by the majority of casual readers, but understood for its real value by intelligent individuals on the lookout for important information.
a nation of oneRe: sector (12/3/02; 09:19:35MT - msg#: 90633)#9064112/3/02; 11:02:01

Thank you for the information contained in your message.

Wars have always offered increased opportunity for civilian violence, since the people's focus is less on that. I am sure this includes not only the settlement of personal 'wrongs,' but grabs for wealth and power also.

Being myself of a constitution most well-suited to fighting, I have found that I dislike peace, unless it has been achieved by conclusive means, which, regardless of anyone's preference, always requires some application of force.

Although this is certainly true, I should add that I like fairness and obey the law. For these are also true.

a nation of onecorrection#9064212/3/02; 11:08:08

My message number 90641 should read, "...since the government's focus is less on that...."
R PowellA few minutes to Comex close#9064312/3/02; 11:21:35

with POG up $2.60
and POS up a dime.
It certainly looks as if those reporting strong support for gold usually lying just a few bucks under the current price are correct. Maybe not yet "to da moon" but also not weak and heading down.
Maybe it's time to check the date for the next new moon and fatten up a Rhode Island Red.

R PowellFarfel#9064412/3/02; 11:38:40

Good to hear from you. I see that your blood pressure, when discussing gold, is at its usual peak.
I'll agree with your general assessment but do not understand the reference to Jews as those responsible for ignoring gold. I'm sure that whatever enthusiasm there is for gold, whatever avoidance there exists, whatever manipulation occurs, in general, whatever market influences exist are not specifically attributable to any one race, religion or creed.
I base this on my belief that investors will value opportunity over any religious tendencies or predispositions toward any investment. Even a kosher Jew will short pork bellies if he thinks there are too many pigs in the market.

sector@RichPowell About the "trading for profit"#9064512/3/02; 11:55:44

Actually the most racist place on earth is the trading pits of the big exchnages

Thus was told to me by Citi Bank's Main Pound trader some years ago. He said women walk right past a profit to trade with other women, blacks walk by profits to trade with other blacks and so on.

It would seem from this that traders who are broad minded would get the most profits.

Xenophobia -- It's a lifestyle.

PS @ Frafel: As a fiftyish guy who has a 32 waist I can testify about what it feels like to be invisible. Just walk into a twenty-something night club.

Buena Fecredit Mike Bolser#9064612/3/02; 12:15:09

is T* here?

can you feel the pressure?

au-buyers have fire in their eyes.

cabal had better not sleep tonight .........

TownCrierAs is went up, so shall it come down -- stocks in for a bear of a bear market#9064712/3/02; 12:39:12

Financial Times AMERICAS & INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY HEADLINE: Laws of physics show market 'anti-bubble'

FT, Dec 02, 2002 -- If financial markets follow the laws of physics, the outlook for the next two years is dire. We can expect a growing "anti-bubble" that will leave the US stock market about 30 per cent lower at the end of 2004 than it is today.

...two physicists at UCLA ... applied the methods of statistical physics ... detected the unmistakable pattern of an anti-bubble, the opposite of a speculative bubble.

It started in mid-2000 in all western stock markets and will continue for at least two more years - interrupted by a brief rally over the next few months. "This anti-bubble describes the bearish phase when stock market traders sell, sell, sell, as the stock market begins to slide into recession."

Positive feedback rules stock markets: if traders start to sell, the herd follows, and vice versa. "As a consequence, the actions of investors tend to produce waves of behaviour," Prof Sornette suggests, "leading to self-reinforcing phases of bull or bear markets - bubbles and anti-bubbles".

--------(see full article at url)--------

The article cites one of the success of this "growing field called econophysics" as the professor's 1999 prediction for a strong first half recovery in Japan followed by a fall back.

It is a short article. MK gets the credit for pointing it out to me. Worth a look.


TownCrierThis link will work if the prior one does not#9064812/3/02; 12:42:06

In a nut shell:

"If financial markets follow the laws of physics, the outlook for the next two years is dire. We can expect a growing "anti-bubble" that will leave the US stock market about 30 per cent lower at the end of 2004 than it is today.

"...the unmistakable pattern of an anti-bubble, the opposite of a speculative bubble ... started in mid-2000 in all western stock markets and will continue for at least two more years - interrupted by a brief rally over the next few months."

TownCrierTake note of this...#9064912/3/02; 12:50:10

As reported by the Financial Times:

"Namibia is starting to play rough over control of the diamond trade. Government officials say they will renegotiate an exclusive diamond buying agreement with De Beers to supply local diamonds to a fledgling polishing industry. Coming long before the existing agreement expires in three years, this is likely to infuriate the diamond cartel."

The lesson to walk away with is to never underestimate the possibility that a national government may at any time seek to interfere with the best laid plans of your mining company and your portfolio if you are a shareholder.


FarfelGOLD: The Investment That Does NOT Exist ( w/ addendum)#9065012/3/02; 13:55:47

Every person at one time or another has known how it feels to be invisible.

Whether it's the restaurant maitre d' who ignores your presence as he happily seats one new arrival after another....or the airline flight attendant who serves everybody a meal except you....or the taxi driver who whizzes past you in order pick up a customer standing farther down the road.....we all know times in our lives where it seems as though we do not exist.

In most cases, when people around us fail to acknowledge our physical being, we may feel irritated but usually ignore the snub. In our minds, we make excuses for those who fail to see us. For example, we often presume that they are too busy or so caught up in their own thoughts that they are oblivious to those standing directly before them. However, if the same people continue to treat us as though we are non-entities, time and time again, eventually the blood pressure rises and irritation turns to anger. There comes a point where, in a most vocal and furious manner, we let the world know we are here and will not be overlooked anymore.

Now if there is one entity in America that should know how it feels to be invisible today, that would be gold.

Over the past decade, the Wall Street Establishment has succeeded in removing gold from consideration as a viable investment sector. When economic times become worrisome, investors have been trained and conditioned to place their monies in T-bills or bonds or real estate...or simply remain on the sidelines, parked in good old American cash. No Wall Street institution of any significance would think to suggest precious metals as a potential safe haven investment. After all, as we have all learned by now, gold is an investment that does not exist.

Unfortunately, gold cannot complain about Wall Street's inveterate refusal to recognize its place in the investment world. Hell, gold does not even get angry. The yellow metal just sits there like some pathetic, tired, old masochist, quietly taking the abuse while leaving others to demand its right to sit at the table of investment funds.

However gold's problem is that, to date, those who champion the metal have failed to find the antidote to its chronic invisibility disorder.

Well, I submit that there are, in fact, various remedies which would place gold under a spotlight. In past writings, I have dealt with many of these proposals.

However, if I were to promote one solution over any other, it is this:

Gold's advocates need to grow some "balls." BIG ones.

For some reason, most gold supporters feel that it is improper or un-American to demand that their favorite investment be recognized, included, and respected. While Wall Street acts in the manner of an old-fashioned golf and country club, excluding the metal from membership, gold's defenders stand quietly in front of the locked gates, their heads bowed down, as whipped as a mangy bitch after her top dog has had his way. As the private club members feast upon the riches of the land, gold investors must content themselves with the few crumbs thrown from the table.

"Here you are, my little gold worm, " barks one senior club member, "We'll allow your gold stocks to end the year with a 15% rate of appreciation, if you're lucky. We know the fundamentals of the gold market have never been better and we know that we've pulled every trick in the book to suppress the gold price... but, hey, you ain't no internet stock so that's as good as it gets. Tough luck, ain't it kid?"

I submit that, during the previous century, blacks or Jews were treated in a far better fashion by America's "closed" golf and country clubs than gold is treated today by Wall Street. Of course, while a black man or Jew's right to be made visible in America is protected by the 14th Amendment (Equal Protection Under the Law) of the Constitution, unfortunately for gold, no such constitutional provision safeguards its interests. What is most insufferable about this kind of categorical discrimination against gold (and gold investors) is this: it is enabled and pardoned by an ethnic group (Jews) on Wall Street who, by virtue of their past history, should know better and should recognize that NO entity or group in America deserves such unwarranted, unrelenting, and pernicious discrimination.

*** Let me stress that I am certainly NOT placing the entire blame of gold price suppression upon the Jews. Rather I merely point out that those Jews on Wall Street who assist in the scapegoating of gold (and gold investors) should, by virtue of their ethnic cultural history, rise to a higher level of enlightenment and recognize that goldbugs are one of America's last
unprotected minorities....and, as such, they should NOT be scapegoated.

As a Jew, I am appalled and disgusted by the collusive scapegoating of gold (and goldbugs) in a most blatant conspiracy between the Wall Street Establishment, America's Big Media, and various senior politicos all across the land. If my fellow Jews fail to comprehend the analogy between a private elite's persecution of all things Hebrew and Wall Street's current, raging war on gold/goldbugs, well, too bad, then I suggest they best educate themselves quickly. After all, an entire generation of embittered gold investors/gold miners/gold dealers, etc., across the world have been victimized through a covert price rigging scheme (the gold carry trade) for the obscene enrichment of a special interest group (bullion banks). God help me, Gold help all my fellow Jews, if the victims should someday turn their wrath upon us again.

Frankly if gold were a person in America today, it would lift its beaten body from the ground and, under the provisions of the 14th Amendment, it would sue the entire Wall Street Establishment, America's Big Media, and various senior government officials for flagrant and incessant Hate Crimes inflicted upon it. Moreover, given the mountains of anti-gold, libelous evidence and provided that the judge who heard the case is fair, gold would win, hands down.

But gold cannot do it all alone. Every gold industry member/investor must do his or her share.

The next time you encounter one of those infamous, seemingly insurmountable "walls" surrounding The Street's exclusive, private club, then drop the stammer, kill the stutter, and don't wimp out.

Instead, grab a gold sledgehammer and smash right through.


Au-some(No Subject)#9065112/3/02; 14:18:42

Good Sir Hipplebeck thank you for the compliment and Merry Christmas
sectorT* isn't here...yet#9065212/3/02; 14:38:05

If you have to's not T*

Everyone in the world will know the T* date.

It will happen with lightening speed. Either through cabal accidental or direct capitulation. One morning gold will make a vertical move, towards $800...then $1,000 later that week.

No one except the manipulators themselves, not even the pathetic goons at JP Morgan or happless directors at Citi Bank know. Only the Fed Chair, a few trusted aides [Mattingly], the Treasury Secretary, Paul O'Neill, the top G-3 central bankers and their respective government leaders know, only in a general way, what conditions define the "Strong dollar", "Weak gold" capitulation criteria. The appropriate conditions require the stealth and cover od a swat-team operation.

Those conditions aren't here yet.

This war on gold is an information war.

Facts are as lethal to the manipulators as nuclear ordnance. The truth excised from the hidden reaches of the cabal is an acid eroding their defenses, eating away at their fiat money confidence game. The internet is a dangerous channel for those facts, a weapons conduit that blindsides the world globalization banking elite when they least expect it.

The rush to Iraqi war and their oil is being driven by a dire need for gold. Every time you hear another push to invade, hear it as another scream of pain as the cabal loses even more central bank gold. As they did today.

Watch carefully the demeanor of government insiders, their posturing, their nervousness at their stupendously large geopolitical gaming.

Putin is backing away from the nascent "Coalition" now.

IF he were REALLY smart he would demand the last of the US gold as payment for his Iraqi oil concessions.

A Canadian@ Farfel#9065312/3/02; 14:38:09

My brother in arms, I NEVER put the hammer down. I at least owe it to those I encounter. Who else will help them to protect what they have toiled for? I like to always keep one ounce in my pocket. Nothing like the real McCoy to keep the kiddie's attention. Keeps my pea-brain kinda focused too. They can crank out all the paper they want. Nothing beats the real thing.
BoilermakerFarfel msg#: 90650 Invisible Gold#9065412/3/02; 14:42:38

Excellent post.
You have seen the enemy and they are the power structure that has created the monster of Wall Street cum Washington. Equal opportunity rape of a nation's foundation. Keep the faith, gold will triumph over the evil unbelievers.


AristotlePinch me quick, I think I must be dreaming#9065512/3/02; 14:49:12

You ever notice how dreams juxtapose things that make them suddenly seem quite bizarre when considered in waking life?

Farfel wrote:

"Jews on Wall Street who assist in the scapegoating of gold (and gold investors) should, by virtue of their ethnic cultural history, rise to a higher level of enlightenment and recognize that goldbugs are one of America's last unprotected minorities....and, as such, they should NOT be scapegoated."

Hey, I'm all for enlightenment, but what's this last stuff?

"goldbugs are one of America's last unprotected minorities....and, as such, they should NOT be scapegoated."

Goldbugs -- collectively and to a man -- are considered minorities?? And what's more, minorities who are being scapegoated??

Look, I can understand the multi-objective official/commercial willpower to keep Gold Metal from running away in dollar price. That's a far cry from persecution of various peoples who of their free will choose to invest in Gold-related items, recognizing the inevitable opportunity this all presents to get Gold cheaply while the good times roll in order to have it when the times fall apart.

So who are these hapless Goldbugs being described here? What's a Goldbug? Farfel makes them sound like they are an identifiable group that are somehow bound to an ill fate.

I'm certainly not one of them. Who is? Is a Ford, a du Pont, or a Wrigley suddenly a suppressed member of the Goldbug minority if they wisely swap a couple of million for a footlocker full of Gold? Is a Korean farmer a Goldbug when, after raising and selling his rice crop, wisely chooses to buy a few Gold wafers because he doesn't trust the won currency?

Who are the Goldbugs, and what do they have in common that makes them a group, a minority, and wimps to boot?

Call me dim, but I just don't get it.

Gold. Still getting me some and not "bugged" or scapegoated at all. --- Aristotle

BoilermakerAristotle on Farfel#9065612/03/02; 15:24:07

I will let Farfel explain (if he is so inclined) his own response to yours but I'd like to toss mine in for the record. It seems to me that we should not be concerned with the financial super-elite who are quite capable of looking after their interests but for the 99.999% who are unaware of the coming storm, not because they are irresponsible but because they are intentionally being kept in the dark.



BoilermakerGold at $320 shooting for $325?#9065712/03/02; 15:46:18

I've seen several messages suggesting that $320 is the first line of defence and that $325 is the hard line. I wonder if the $320 line is someone like JPM who will capitulate and surrender at that line? The battle rages with the giants as the ants keep clearing the battlefield of spent gold.



CaseyHaiku#9065812/03/02; 15:59:17

I've been a "lurker" for some time, and want to take a quick opportunity to thank all of the regular poster for the excellent thoughts, insights and info. As well as add my compliments to Ausome for the fine holiday haiku. So in spare moments during the day I've been trying to fashion a haiku of my own. Such as it is, here it is. Enjoy and a happy and prosperous holiday to you all!

A golden sunrise
Mirrored in my opened palm
A new beginning

AristotleBoilermaker, Farfel (and anyone else who can't find their scroll button)#9065912/03/02; 16:22:26

Here's my point, and it holds regardless of the person being among the wealthy elite or of more modest means.

First of all, it's impossible to give people information in absolute. Each person must ultimately come to their own conclusions about their exposure to risk and financial uncertainty. Therefore, it's not really a fair representation for you to say that 99.999% are unaware of the coming storm because they are intentionally being kept in the dark.

Given the whole spectrum of investors, each person based on their own reasoning can freely choose to invest anywhere from 0% to 100% of their portfolio in Gold.

Let's say...
--a retired guy who has a conservatively balanced portfolio with Gold coins, bonds, and blue chip stocks

--a plumber has 20% in Gold, having 50,000 mining shares and a coin or two, along with lots of bonds and blue chip and bio-med stocks, and land

--a janitor has 90% in Gold, having 5 COMEX options and 2 futures contracts along with some cash but no metal or shares

--Warren Buffet has less than 1% in Gold, having more than 100,000 ounces of Gold Metal along with everthing else and the kitchen sink

Use your imagination to complete the spectrum for all other millions of investors out there, many of which admittedly have no Gold at all.

Now, who's the "Goldbug" among them? What characteristics make someone a card-carrying member of this oppressed minority, and is their some other identifiable group that is purposely out to stick it to them; and if so, for what reason?

You see? I just don't get it as it pertains to "victims." Although as stated -- investors' fate aside -- the price of the Metal itself is still being suppressed for all the previously elaborated reasons.

Gold. Doesn't anyone else like a bargain when they see one or can get one? --- Ari

AristotleThat's a nice one, Casey#9066012/03/02; 16:24:04

--- Ari
SilverHoardNew revision 20$ US#9066112/03/02; 16:38:45

I finally saw the "offical"?? news US is revising paper currency with color and changes to images of the dead presidents, can't they get it right??. Apologize if I missed discussion earllier, but may I get a sampling of opinion from this distinguished forum please. Interested in a range of opinions from possible to far out. As my name implies I was interested in the discussion yesterday on the the Mexcican silver coin story. An additional request for opinion if you please. Is their a requirement that the US gold and silver eagle coin have a denomination on them. And if so why those specific denomination?,i.e 5$ silver and 50 or 100$ gold. Thanks to all for both your opinions and knowledge.
ElGordoHuge NY Tax increase#9066212/03/02; 17:50:09

Mayor Bloomberg tells Daily News Editorial Board he still hopes for state Legislature to bend and allow city to levy commuter tax. Get ready for sticker shock, New York.

Property tax bills reflecting a whopping 18.5% increase will be mailed Thursday, after Mayor Bloomberg and City Council Speaker Gifford Miller officially signed the largest-ever hike into law early yesterday.

But it may not stop there. With a $3 billion budget gap still looming over the next fiscal year, Bloomberg told the Daily News Editorial Board yesterday that additional taxes are all but unavoidable next year.

"I think it is unrealistic for the city to close a $3 billion deficit ... by cutting back," the mayor said. "You have to raise revenues someplace or another."

The mayor's plan next year calls for $1billion more in service cuts - and twice as much in new taxes. Besides help from the state, he is seeking help from the federal government, especially on Medicaid.

Bloomberg's first choice for boosting revenues, he said, is a tax on commuters, which he predicted could net the city $1 billion "some ways or another" - either through an income tax or a more traditional surcharge. But he also didn't rule out the possibility of increasing income taxes on city dwellers if Albany lawmakers, who must approve a commuter tax, refuse to go along.

ElGordoNuke reactor shut down#9066312/03/02; 17:54:36

DALLAS (AP) - A reactor at a Texas nuclear power plant was shut down after a leak of radioactive water, leading to government scrutiny of the utility's plan for finding such leaks.

Operators shut down the TXU Energy's Comanche Peak twin-reactor plant well before leakage exceeded federal guidelines, TXU spokesman David Beshear said Tuesday. They have since repaired leaking and corroded lines.

"There was never a danger to the safety of the plant, the safety of the employees or the safety of the public," he said. Comanche Peak is about 80 miles southwest of Dallas.

A report by Nuclear Regulatory Commission inspectors said radiation monitors inside the plant's Unit 1 sounded alarms after recording high radiation readings on Sept. 26.

Radiation levels peaked six more times before operators shut down the reactor two days later, the inspectors said.

The leak was found in a small tube carrying radioactive water in one of four generators that make steam to turn the reactor's electric turbines.

The utility's own report to the NRC said a subsequent TXU check found corrosion in 667 other tubes in Unit 1, but none was leaking. That number, according to TXU, represented more than 3 percent of the tubes.

NRC spokesman Roger Hannah said an inspection of the plant focused on Comanche Peak's system for finding and responding to leaks.

"What we're interested in is whether they should have picked up on this earlier," he said.

The utility said it was the first unplanned shutdown of the plant, which returned to service Nov. 11.

David Lochbaum, a nuclear safety engineer with the Union of Concerned Scientists, said the leak could have quickly developed from debris in the water or over time if corrosion had been overlooked.

"If it was missed and they had the opportunity to prevent this in the past and missed it, that's one thing," he said. "But if it happened randomly, then there was nothing they could do to prevent this."

Lochbaum said similar leaks have shut down about a dozen plants in the past decade.

The Davis-Besse nuclear power plant near Toledo, Ohio, has been shut down since February because an accumulation of acid nearly ate through a 6-inch-thick steel reactor cap. That leak, discovered in March, was the most extensive corrosion ever found on a U.S. nuclear reactor and led to a nationwide review of 69 similar plants.
Crank up the fossil fuel generators. Oil and Gas to make up
the difference.

ElGordoThrow another Trillion $$$$ on the Barbie#9066412/03/02; 18:30:08

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A congressional budget analysis predicts the federal government could have a nearly $900 billion budget deficit in 10 years instead of returning to a surplus, a Republican senator said on Tuesday.

The Congressional Budget Office (news - web sites) analysis requested by Sen. George Voinovich of Ohio predicted that the government would have a $866 billion deficit by 2012, not including Social Security (news - web sites) funds, if government spending increases by the average rate of the last several years and tax cuts set to expire after 10 years were extended, Voinovich's spokesman said.

Voinovich is to release the report at a news conference on Wednesday.

In its last budget outlook in August, the budget office said the government should have a $185 billion surplus in 2012, not counting Social Security funds, after posting deficits for most of the decade.

That outlook assumed that federal spending increases would be held to the inflation rate. It also was based on current law, which called for the expiration after 10 years of the $1.35 trillion tax cuts passed in 2001.

But average federal spending rate increases have far outpaced recent modest inflation rates, and many Republicans who control the White House and Congress are calling for making the tax cuts permanent as a way to spur the economy.

Voinovich's spokesman said the budget office report gives a more realistic picture than the CBO can present in its regular budget outlook, which must be based on current law and on spending tracking inflation.

"Fixing the situation will require serious reforms to the way the federal budget is prepared," a statement from Voinovich's office said, adding that the senator "will unveil a blueprint for such reforms."
An aging population needs more Social Security forget
surplus budgets. Hey Vern, crank that printing machine.

ElGordoMost entertaining#9066512/03/02; 18:38:09

J.P Morgan Admits 'Circular' Enron Deals

Tue December 3, 2002 07:59 PM ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A lawyer for J.P Morgan Chase JPM.N on Tuesday admitted the bank engineered a series of circular deals in which Enron Corp. ENRNQ.PK , to suit its accounting needs, sold gas to a Chase-owned entity and then bought it back as part of the same deal.

The lawyer was testifying during the second day of a trial in which J.P. Morgan Chase is suing 11 insurance firms for refusing to pay $1 billion in so-called surety bond coverage, which the insurers issued to guarantee the deals with Enron.

Arguments presented by the two sides are expected to shine a light on the complex ways the now-bankrupt Enron worked with its financiers.

The insurers, including Chubb Corp. CB.N and Hartford Financial Services Group HIG.N , have said they were misled over the true nature of the deals, saying the transactions were really a disguised loan to the heavily indebted Enron and that no gas or oil ever changed hands.

Under the deals in question, J.P. Morgan, through a related entity called Mahonia, paid $1.9 billion upfront to Enron in exchange for a series of oil and gas shipments to Mahonia.

Mahonia, via J.P. Morgan, was then free to sell the commodities to other companies and traders, including, sometimes, back to Enron.

In Manhattan Federal court on Tuesday, Celia Barenholtz, the attorney representing the insurance firms, used a string of e-mails, memos and flow charts to attempt to show that in many of the deals, the gas or oil that was sold to Mahonia by Enron ended up being sold back to Enron by Chase as part of the same transaction.

Moreover, the deals were signed and dated the exact same day, meaning that no physical gas or oil ever changed hands.

"The structure was totally circular, yes?" Judge Jed Rakoff asked the J.P. Morgan Chase lawyer, Philip Levy.

"The gas that was going to be sold to Mahonia would then be sold in a number of separate transactions, that would ultimately be sold to Enron?" Rakoff added.

"Yes, I guess that would be circular," Levy admitted.

J.P. Morgan maintains the insurance firms knew the deals with Enron were financing arrangements, which involved the buying and selling of oil and gas. But they deny the deals constitute a loan.

The insurers signed "absolute and unconditional" agreements to pay Chase should Enron default on the deliveries or payments for deliveries. But when Enron went bankrupt in December 2001, Chase's lead attorney John Callagy said, the insurance firms hurriedly met in New York and quickly came up with an excuse for not paying.

Barenholtz argued that the only reason Chase agreed to use Mahonia to structure the deal was because Enron had specifically told Chase it wanted to do so for accounting reasons.

"Enron told Chase it wanted Mahonia in the picture for its own accounting purposes, didn't it?" Barenholtz asked Levy.

"Yes," Levy replied.

The trial is expected to last for about three weeks.

ElGordoVenezuelan strike continues#9066612/03/02; 18:59:49

Opposition groups in Venezuela have observed a second consecutive day of strikes to try to press President Hugo Chavez to agree to a referendum on whether he should remain in office.

Opponents accuse Chavez of economic mismanagement

Strike leaders said that 75% of workers from the country's crucial oil industry remained at home, however Labour Minister Maria Cristina Iglesias insisted only 18% of them did not work.

Many people across the country took to the streets to march in protest, banging pots and pans in parks, streets and house balconies.

And tensions escalated in the nation's capital, Caracas, after the Venezuelan national guard fired tear gas and shotgun pellets to break up an opposition protest outside Venezuela's state-owned oil firm PDSVA.

Dissident oil workers were protesting against what they described as "acts of terror" against striking oil workers, Reuters news agency reported.

silvercollectorNon-hedgers had a great day#9066712/03/02; 19:01:05

Several intermediates had a steady, increasing day with a nice spike at 3:15/3:20. Hope this continues tomorrow.

Wonder if ElGordo's news co-incides with the spike?

steadysector the information war#9066812/03/02; 19:05:56

sector i agree with your statement that its an information war. just wait till the investment community starts to ask about the disapearind special drawing rights. read the link provided to understand what the special drawing rights are, how many there where, how many are left and how the imf accounts for them.

then mr turk also exposes many other irregularities in the american system for accounting for gold gold swaps and testimoney regarding the esf .
the essays can be read here

the bottom 7 are significant imo

BoilermakerGold Bugs Anonomous#9066912/03/02; 19:31:02

Ari you pose an interseting question.......
"Use your imagination to complete the spectrum for all other millions of investors out there, many of which admittedly have no Gold at all.
Now, who's the "Goldbug" among them? What characteristics make someone a card-carrying member of this oppressed minority, and is their some other identifiable group that is purposely out to stick it to them; and if so, for what reason?"

Here's how I see the spectrum of investors:

Those who entrust all their investments to others without knowing or caring about the details. They will be fleeced.

Those who take some or all control of their investments and who monitor the traditional investment news, advice and select from the "accepted" investment menu. They will be fleeced.

Those who see the gathering storm, ignore the sunny forecasts and head for port where they hunker down with some golden ballast. These are the card carrying goldbugs. They will be rewarded.

This third category, the goldbugs, is a tiny minority, the .001% who have seen the lunacy of the economic corruption around them. Are they oppressed? Who is trying to stick it to them and why?

IMO they are oppressed. A massive operation exists, Wall Street, Washington, the media, that is determined to reduce gold to lead, make it just another toxic commodity. The purpose is not to punish goldbugs but to perpetuate the fiat $ scam and all the associated asset plays. Whatever the purpose, it feels like punishment to this tired goldbug.

Cheers, (and off to bed)

Gandalf the WhiteWELCOME Sir Casey !! Keep on rhyming !!#9067012/03/02; 19:37:42

Casey (12/03/02; 15:59:17MT - msg#: 90658)

Black BladeAsian Markets Start Off In The Red#9067112/03/02; 20:42:42

Looks like Asian markets are following Wall Street's lead and are trending lower tonight. Looks like a bit of "entertainment" in the equities arena tonight and that could carry over into Euro trading later.

- Black Blade

Black BladeWe Are in Transition – Market Wrap Up - Puplava#9067212/03/02; 21:06:40


As I wrote in "The Next Big Thing," when one bull market comes to an end, another emerges to take its place. It is seldom in the same asset class. Throughout history the markets swing back and forth like a pendulum between paper and things as shown from this graph taken from "Riders on The Storm." A growing population in the developing world and the environmental movement are two major factors that will bring about a rise in prices in most commodities. If I had to put investment priorities into perspective and rate them in terms of highest return over the next decades, they would be as follows:

1) Precious Metals
2) Energy: oil and especially natural gas
3) Water
4) War Stocks

Where The Wise Will Tread

The best part about my thesis in "The Next Big Thing" is that the herd has yet to recognize it. Many of these asset-based companies, whether in metals, energy, water or commodities, remain undervalued and are now under accumulation by smart money. The fact that shares in many of the metals stocks have gone up last year and this year has yet to convince the crowd. Most investors trade them but don't, in reality, believe in them. This is obvious by reviewing the e-mails to James Sinclair on our site, or watching the charts of most high quality metals stocks. The same is true of energy and natural gas. Wall Street is still going with the quick war and plenty of oil scenarios. Very few analysts have studied geology. Wall Street still believes that there is plenty of cheap oil around and plenty natural gas left. The problem is that it won't be cheap.

It may take a while for the rest of the market to wake up to these facts. But for those who can think beyond the next day, week or month, there are, IMO, going to be big profits made in these areas. There isn't time in daily missives to go into all of the particulars of why. That is the purpose of the Perspectives and Storm Updates. However, I can say this now—that the supply of gold and silver on the exchanges aren't large enough to cover short positions or handle any investment demand coming from the general public. Only the big boys have been buying and when they do, they cover their footprints. You can follow their footprints in chart patterns, but even they can be deceptive because a lot of trading in this market is done outside the market. I do believe, however, when the masses wake up to what has been done to their currency and what has become of the value of paper, there is going to be a giant scramble for the exit gates out of paper and a stampede through the narrow gate of precious metals. To deny this eventuality is to admit ignorance of monetary history. Very few give evidence of any paper currency that has been long lasting or enduring throughout the centuries.

Black Blade: I agree. Gold production will begin to fall off sharply within the next two years because the risk and current price do not make it a very profitable venture to explore for new targets and open new mines. When the price of gold does surge higher there will be very few producers in any position to take advantage. It takes a minimum of 5 to 7 years on average just to begin the process of starting a new mine and even then the likelihood of success is not always certain. Also, Puplava mentions natural gas (and energy in general) will be the more immediate problem as Wall Street has missed the point. These people are not geologists and they are as gullible as the general public in the belief that there is plenty of cheap oil and natural gas. On the natural gas (and electricity generation in general), the US is about to get one huge "Wake Up Call". When utility rates suddenly roar two or three times higher as dwindling supply and aging infrastructure can't meet the demand, then the economy is toast. Even gold mining shares could be pressured as mining is an energy intensive business. The price of gold will have to rise to phenomenal highs to out pace the rising cost of energy. In fact every company that uses energy (and that is about all of them), the hit will be immediate and will drop right to the bottom line. When that day comes I will want to be in physical Gold and Silver, have a good supply of nonperishable food, basic necessities, and I would want to be debt free. That day could be close at hand.

Black Blade"Seasons" of the Last Century's Stock Market#9067312/03/02; 21:10:09

The chart at the link from Puplava's article in the preceding post is a a good follow up.

- Black Blade

ElGordoAuto sales start to falter#9067412/03/02; 21:14:28

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG reported November U.S. vehicle sales on Tuesday that were sharply lower than a year ago, reflecting the exaggerated impact of zero-percent financing and similar incentives.

GM, the world's No. 1 automaker, said it sold 309,263 cars and trucks in November, 18 percent fewer than a year ago. No. 2 automaker Ford sold 261,705 cars and trucks, a drop of 16.6 percent. And Chrysler's U.S. unit, the No. 3 automaker, sold 158,839 units, a drop of 12 percent.

Each of the so-called "Big Three" performed worse than the total industry, which saw sales drop 10 percent to an annualized rate of 16 million units from 17.8 million a year ago, according to sales tracker Autodata.
Unemployment could jump in early 2003

Black BladeA recovery with no jobs#9067512/03/02; 21:22:05

Commentary: Falling claims don't mean the worst is over


NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Just because jobless claims are trending lower, it doesn't mean that the worst is over for the U.S. economy -- or for those who are already unemployed. Fewer people may be losing their jobs these days -- but fewer people are finding them, too. As a consequence, the average duration of unemployment is now at its highest level in over eight years. Thirty-six percent of those officially counted as unemployed have been without a job for 15 weeks or more. You have to go back to recession year 1991 to find a bigger percentage. Those without work 27 weeks or more are also at eight-year highs when taken as a percentage of the unemployed. And while this figure always lags behind the turn in the economy, their numbers have increased much faster this time than they did following the end of the previous recession, back in 1991 and 1992. We are now at the point in the business cycle where, if the economy is, indeed, recovering, employment should be in a solid upturn. Instead, employment has zigzagged all this year, rising in some months but falling in others. As a result, payrolls are slimmer than they were this time last year as well as the year before. Call it a jobless recovery.

Black Blade: Actually it's much worse as there are more out of work and under employed than the BLS will admit to. The extended unemployment benefits program is running out and soon (January) there will be a huge increase of unemployed running at about 95,000 per week though not counted as unemployed by the BLS. So the spin will continue about slowing unemployment and yet there will be more unemployed. As far as any economic recovery is concerned you can forget about it.

Black BladeECB's Issing Sees Greater Risk of `Stagflation' Than Deflation#9067612/03/02; 21:32:24


London, Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The European Central Bank's chief economist Otmar Issing said there is a greater risk of slow economic growth coupled with rising prices than of deflation in the economy of the 12 nations sharing the euro. Under present conditions, Issing called the occurrence of deflation ``highly unlikely'' in a speech at the European Finance Convention in London. ``Expectation of lower inflation, yes, risk of deflation around the corner, no,'' he said. Issing raised concerns about stagflation. ``The risk that we might enter a lasting phase of low growth with more or less strongly rising prices, which could be called stagflation, deserves much more attention than the risk of deflation.''

Black Blade: I think that stagflation could be a real possibility, though deflation cannot be completely ruled out either. We walk on the razors edge and which way we fall depends on how the Central Banks react and whether they overshoot their target. All eyes should be looking over Japan and try to avoid the same mistakes. "Interesting Times"

ElGordoIraq has smallpox?#9067712/03/02; 22:01:46

By Brian Ross

Dec. 3

— American intelligence officials are investigating whether a Russian scientist transferred a particularly lethal strain of smallpox to the government of Iraq in the 1990s, ABCNEWS has confirmed.

As first reported in The New York Times, the allegations involve a smallpox strain stored at the Research Institute for Viral Preparations in Moscow.

Intelligence officials say an informant has reported the institute's late director, virologist Nelja Maltseva, moved the smallpox on a trip to Iraq in 1990.

"Maltseva had access to the entire collection, in all probability, of the Russian strains of small pox — at least a hundred," said Dr. Alan Selikoff, a scientist at the Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, N.M.

The collection includes an especially deadly strain of smallpox involved in an outbreak 30 years ago in the remote Kazakhstan city of Aralsk.

Selikoff, who first revealed the Aralsk outbreak earlier this year, says it's possible that strain is also resistant to known vaccines. Even if a vaccine were available, it would not stop the spread of this rare strain of smallpox, but Selikoff said it would help limit the number of deaths.

"It raises the specter of the transfer of the disease to the Iraqi government that might cause more problems than the garden-variety smallpox would if it were ever introduced into the open again," said Selikoff.

Concern of Possible Attack

In fact, Selikoff's research suggests the Aralsk smallpox strain could be easily spread by missile, in the air across wide areas — something not previously thought possible.

"Smallpox in the hands of Saddam Hussein is a great concern and obviously a more virulent strain is of even more concern," Rep. Chris Shays, D-Conn., told ABCNEWS.

In the last few months, Israeli officials and emergency workers have begun a rush smallpox vaccination program, based on fears they are in the range of Iraqi Scud missiles.

In the United States, government scientists say the new allegations involving Iraq and smallpox raise the stakes for President Bush, who must soon decide on the scale of a smallpox vaccination program here.

A federal plan being considered would offer the inoculation first to emergency workers, who would be most likely to come in contact with a contagious smallpox patient.

Florida's Orange County Sheriff's Office is the first law-enforcement agency in the United States to offer all of its deputies the opportunity to be vaccinated against smallpox.

DoubleEagleRe: SilverHoard message #90661 (Denoms on bullion coins)#9067812/03/02; 22:52:40

As for the new "colorful" $20's, I have no considered opinion. They'll come out, and I'll use them to buy Sovereigns and my namesake (the superlative double damn gold coin ever minted).

As for the denomination of bullion coins, I myself have often wondered how it was decided what they would be. I'm sure that the law in the U.S. that authorized our bullion offerings spelled out what the denoms would be (that level of specificity is pretty standard for U.S. coinage). The conspiracy theorist in me (I like to think I'm just creative) thinks that these coins have been circulated so as to be in place to take over in case of total collapse of the fiat paper dollar. Lending to this read is that the ounce gradients are pretty standard all over the world. 1oz, 1/2oz, 1/4oz, and 1/10oz coins are made all over the world, and by most of the governments issuing bullion coins. I find it interesting that the Canadian Maple Leaf 1oz is denominated $50, the same as the U.S. Eagle 1oz coin, even though the Canadian fiat paper dollar is worth considerably less than the U.S. fiat paper dollar. An example is the paper back book I have in front of me this very minute: $7.99 U.S., $10.99 Canadian. I don't have any of the fractional Maple Leafs, so I don't know if they correspond to the Eagles on down the line (anyone feel free to pop in on that one).

Now, going against my theory, and towards the idea that they were pretty much randomly chosen, is that the 1/4oz Eagle is denominated $10, though it should be $12.50, based on it's gold content in relation to the 3 other bullion sizes. The 1/10 ($5) and 1/2 ($25) ounce coins confirm in weight and denomination to the 1oz ($50). To the layperson, it probably looks "more even" to have the 1/4 be $10, but the purist in me is bothered by the inaccuracy of it. Doesn't really matter though...the average American is totally ignorant of gold, bullion coins, and so on an so forth. I talk up gold all the time at work, and my mostly very intelligent coworkers consult me on coin issues from time to time, but they mostly just care about living paycheck to paycheck. They're still convinced that the stock market will allow them to retire in style. "Just got to ride it out," or "A good opportunity to buy more shares." Glad I got wise well before the bubble.


Black BladeMr. Ricchio's Theory of Bull Cycles & $5600 Gold#9067912/03/02; 22:57:26


So if gold is in the first stages of a bull market, how long can it go for and how high?

Well, the lesson of this story is that once a bull gathers steam and enters the mania stage, the sky is the limit and none of it will make sense from a valuation perspective. Every Joe and Jane will be chasing the trend regardless of price and institutions will buy because they have to garner exposure or else risk missing a rally! I think the gold rally can last a minimum of 5-8 years and has durability above a decade. As for price, gold could rally near $5600/ounce if the US Federal Reserve decides to devalue the Dollar by letting the printing presses run. The Dollar devaluation would be promoted as serving two purposes: One, import prices would rise helping to offset Deflationary pressures. And Two, a falling dollar would serve to narrow the trade and current account

Black Blade: Interesting article.

TownCriersteady, I saw your post pointing to Turk's old SDR speculations#9068012/03/02; 22:59:52

I think James was still trying to come up to speed on his understanding of the monetary role and workings of SDRs and their title certificates among the Treasury and the Federal Reserve.

In an attempt to fill the void, I offered a couple of posts in reaction to wayward discussion that was occuring at the time. Because this sort of info is timeless, I captured it in a Golden Chalkboard page, which you can access at the url given above. To get to the most pertinent info, scroll halfway down the page and begin reading where the subject line reads "Highgrading the data".

I hope this proves helpful to you.


ElGordoSouth Korea down 3%#9068112/03/02; 23:54:03

Asia in the red, futures slightly negative for the US.
ElGordoHezbollah to launch Global Suicide Attacks#9068212/04/02; 00:02:54

LONDON — The leader of the Lebanese Muslim group Hezbollah is urging a global suicide bombing campaign, increasing the prospect that the regional conflict between Arabs and Israelis will expand to mimic or even merge with al Qaeda's war against the West.

Two recent speeches by the Lebanon-based Hezbollah leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, have raised the specter of attacks outside the region by a powerful and well-organized military force — a force that successfully pushed the Israeli army out of southern Lebanon two years ago.

"By Allah, if they touch Al Aqsa we will act everywhere around the world," Sheik Nasrallah told an estimated 10,000 gun-toting, bearded fighters in southern Lebanon on Friday. Several hundred "suicide commandos" also took part.

Al Aqsa refers to a sacred Muslim site in Jerusalem that, although under Israeli military control, is in practice administered by Palestinian Muslim authorities.

The site, holy to both Jews and Muslims, is a flash point for tension and outbreaks of violence.

Taken alone, Sheik Nasrallah's remarks might be interpreted as no more than a warning to Israel not to alter the status quo.
But earlier in the week, at a rally in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, Sheik Nasrallah issued a far more ominous threat.

"Martyrdom operations — suicide bombings — should be exported outside Palestine," he said.
"I encourage Palestinians to take suicide bombings worldwide. Don't be shy about it," he added.
Both speeches were broadcast by a Hezbollah-owned TV station in Lebanon.

The sheik has made no direct comment on Thursday's twin attacks in Kenya, in which missiles were fired at an Israeli passenger jet and suicide bombers attacked an oceanfront hotel.
However, a previously unknown group calling itself the Army of Palestine claimed responsibility for the attacks in a press statement sent from Beirut.

"The rapid statement, and the peculiarity of Lebanese fundamentalist terminology used in that statement, leads me to believe that this was the hand of Hezbollah," said Walid Phares, a professor of Middle Eastern studies and religious conflict at Florida Atlantic University.

ElGordoSaudi's organize anti-democracy coalition#9068312/4/02; 00:13:19

Wednesday, December 4, 2002

ABU DHABI — Saudi Arabia is working to form an Arab coalition to oppose any U.S. drive to impose democracy on the Middle East.

Arab diplomatic sources said the kingdom has been consulting with Egypt, Syria and the Gulf states regarding the ramifications of post-Saddam reforms in Iraq. The sources said Saudi Arabia is concerned that it will be the next target of the Bush administration.

"The Saudi efforts want to ensure that no major Arab country will plot against Riyad or any other regime targeted by the United States," a diplomatic source said. "While Washington opposed Iraq on the issue of weapons of mass destruction, the Saudis are worried that Washington will use the banner of democracy."

The London-based Al Quds Al Arabi daily reported that Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al Faisal has been touring Arab capitals and urging them to sign an agreement that would pledge to resist any U.S. effort for regime change in the Arab world. The newspaper said Riyad wants Arab League members to sign such a pledge during their next summit.

"No one can change the Saudi regime but Allah," Saudi Interior Minister Prince Nayef Bin Abdul Aziz said.

The proposed accord would also commit league members to oppose any U.S. attempt to freeze the assets of any Arab government. The Saudi aim is to prevent Washington from blocking Saudi assets in the United States or in allied nations that stem from the multi-trillion dollar suit by the families of victims of the Al Qaida attacks on New York and Washington more than a year ago.

Saudi leaders have relayed their concern to the Bush administration over the effects of the law suit against leading princes and institutions. Among those named in the suit are Prince Nayef and Saudi Defense Minister Prince Sultan.

At the same time, Saudi leaders have taken steps to address U.S. concerns regarding lack of democracy in the kingdom. Riyad has agreed to examine a proposal to provide authority for the 120-member Shura consultative council. The council is appointed by King Fahd and discusses civilian and military issues.

geTurkish Traffic #9068412/4/02; 00:51:22

The following people were spotted at Ankara / Turkey:

Alvaro de Soto of UN, Jack Straw of UK, Marc Grossman and Paul Wolfowitz of USA, Yorgo Papandreu of Greece, Michael Deppler and Juha Kahkonen of IMF.

At Washington, Donald Rumsfeld has made a surprise meeting with Turkish Ambassador.

Got gold?

Black BladeGlobal Markets Negative#9068512/4/02; 01:53:47

Asian and Euro markets plunge in overnight trading action as the U.S. dollar plummets. The "entertainment" continues as the nervous Lemmings run to and fro.

- Black Blade

SpartacusUS Treasury's Dam says US, EU should work informally to create free trade zone#9068612/4/02; 02:11:16

--The US and European Union should work towards the creation of a free trade zone without formally declaring their intentions to do so as such a proclamation could undermine the entire global trading system, said Deputy Treasury Secretary Kenneth Dam.--
Black BladeUS Market Futures Go Negative#9068712/4/02; 02:13:42

US market index futures are solidly negative indicating a lower open on Wall Street. The USD is sharply lower as well, yet gold is flat, and surprisingly petroleum is sharply lower giving back gains after yesterday's Iraqi gunboat attack on a Kuwaiti vessel.

- Black Blade

SpartacusProdi floats idea of 'common European economic space' for EU, neighbours#9068812/4/02; 02:18:38

--European Commission president Romano Prodi has floated the idea of a "common European economic space" for the EU and its neighbours.
He said now is the time for the EU to explore such questions and "set ourselves the objective of formulating a strong and consistent policy to embrace all countries on our continent and around the Mediterranean".
"I am also thinking of a new system of relations between the enlarged EU and an encircling band of friendly countries stretching from the Maghreb (north- western Africa) to Russia," he said.--

Black BladeThe 'falling dollar/rising gold' phenomenon#9068912/4/02; 02:25:15


Gold and the dollar have an inverse relationship

When the dollar is up, gold tends to be down. And when the dollar is down, gold tends to be up. For every 1 percent decline in the dollar, in fact, the value of gold generally increases by about 2 percent. There are some powerful reasons for this. The obvious one has to do with the fact that gold is priced in dollars, so as the dollar declines in value, the price of gold naturally increases. The less obvious reason has to do with the consequences of the U.S. running twin deficits – near-record trade and federal budget deficits. As the dollar continues to decline in value as a result of these staggering deficits (and other factors as well), foreign investors are prompted to take a safer, more secure approach. That approach involves trimming commitments to troubled investments, like U.S. stocks and bonds, and adding more safety and profitability in the form of gold.

Joining the chorus of other institutions, Morgan Stanley predicted in July (in a report on its website, that the dollar could drop by 20 percent or more inside of a year. If, indeed, gold does tend to increase by about 2 percent for every 1 percent decline in the dollar, a $450 to $500 per ounce target would be entirely reasonable for 2003. At the very least, the prospect of a falling dollar and rising gold should merit your serious consideration. Allocating more gold to your portfolio not only can serve as an insurance policy against the unforeseen consequences of a weak dollar, but it can also position you for unexpected profits. After all, as Ron Paul put it, "History and economic law are on the side of gold."

Black Blade: The US dollar is grossly overvalued, however, the "currency war" has masked that problem for now. With record US debt (well over an official $6 trillion and perhaps another $5 trillion off the books), and rising government deficits, it is a no-brainer that the US dollar will decline in value – especially as the printing presses are fired up to stave off the threat of deflation. Get ready and hang on tight for the wild ride to come.

Black BladeGerman jobless rises to 9.7 percent in November, more than 4 million out of work#9069012/4/02; 02:35:55


FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- Germany's jobless rate rose in November to 9.7 percent and the number of people out of work topped the politically sensitive 4 million mark, the country's federal labor office said Wednesday. The jobless rate rose from 9.4 percent in October, while the number of Germans without a job rose by 96,100 to 4,025,842, the office said. The figure was 236,900 higher than in November last year. On Tuesday, Finance Minister Hans Eichel said that unemployment likely would climb "clearly" above 4 million this winter. It reached 4.29 million in February and again edged over 4 million in the summer.

Black Blade: Nearly the same rate as in the U.S. (official and unofficial). It will get much worse as economic conditions deteriorate.

DOWNUNDER"The $3.5 Trillion Dollar Sure Thing" - - - Sinclair on Derivitives#9069112/4/02; 02:37:26

Comments would be welcome from those with a better grip on this issue than "moi"


"The $3.5 Trillion Dollar Sure Thing"
An Issue to Watch

by James Sinclair

We in the gold community have a sticky decision to make. There is legislation presently in process, which would prevent a meltdown of the over-the-counter derivatives as it pertains to the granting entities, thereby removing from the financial perpetrators the risk of their miscalculated deeds or misdeeds. After all the legalese and flowered words are removed, what this bill intends is simple. It would prevent auditors, attorneys and bankruptcy judges from securing the assets of the profitable legs (offsetting transactions) of a derivative spread and protecting under chapter 11 those seeking to collect from the losing side (offsetting transaction). The only way these computer falsehoods (OTC derivatives) can go bust is if the transactions are split apart in bankruptcy proceedings (the profitable side seen as money and the loss side bankrupt), as would be the present effect of the now standing laws concerning bankruptcy. The new law would make the netting of the profit and loss to zero in the transaction in case of financial failure by the grantor.

The real sin in this situation is that the law is akin to a giant erasure that will run through the majority of 74 trillion dollars of transactions that stand now as special performance requirements that in truth cannot perform. The constructors of these will walk away with all their commissions and spread profits intact. It will be the largest pork belly bill ever granted for anyone in US history, particularly now for the banking and investment industry. It is a gift of no less than $3.5 trillion in revenue that these transactions have produced over the past 12 years of their ascendancy.

On the pro side of this legislation, no one in their right mind, myself included, wants to experience the downfall of this mountain of worthless paper. Its economic, social and political impact is simply too awful to consider.

Gold's Greatest Risk
A Violent Run Up
To Unsustainable Levels in a Short Cover
------- continued --follow link

SpartacusTurkey qualifies role in Iraq crisis#9069212/4/02; 02:55:58

--Turkey has said it will want to see a second United Nations resolution before any US-led military intervention in Iraq. Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis said his country was against a war, but said Turkey would allow US troops to use its air space and facilities if it had UN backing. --
SpartacusIraq may need new phones, currency after Saddam #9069312/4/02; 03:33:07

WASHINGTON, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Iraqi exiles meeting to plan for a possible post-war Iraq without President Saddam Hussein said on Tuesday the country may need everything from a new currency to an emergency mobile phone network.
The exiles, at least one of them flown in from northern Iraq, gathered as part of the U.S. State Department's "Future of Iraq" program of working groups to ponder how to rebuild Iraq whenever and however Saddam's reign ends. -

GatekeeperBlack Blade Your post 90672#9069412/4/02; 03:36:44

I couldn't agree more. Just one small observation.I note your call to get out of debt.Having survived living through hyperinflation I found that a much more profitable approach, when your debt carries a fixed and low interest rate, is to continue holding debt but also create if possible a reserve in hard assets like PM's. This way you benefit from the devaluation of the debt via a vis your PM's.
ElGordoIslamist supporters growing in Kuwait#9069612/4/02; 04:23:17

But Kuwaitis and longtime expatriates here say they have seen a steady and disturbing rise in Islamic extremism.

"I have been here 22 years, and in that time I have seen the country becoming more and more fundamentalist," said a European businessman, who asked that his name not be used. "This country is going backward, not forward."

As for any residual gratitude toward the United States, he scoffed: "Eaten bread is soon forgotten."

The attacks have raised alarms about the reliability of Kuwait, which could be the jumping-off point if a U.S.-led invasion seeks to oust Iraqi President Saddam Hussein from power.

The government here restricts its own citizens' access to one-fourth of the country. The move does not appear to have caused much resentment, but it was at least a blunt acknowledgment that some Kuwaitis might pose a threat to the more than 12,000 U.S. troops already here.

Like Arabs elsewhere, Kuwaitis say there is a widespread sense of rage and humiliation felt by average people that is caused by the actions of Israel against Palestinians and a sense that the U.S. campaign against terrorism is a thinly disguised religious war against Muslims.
In the Kuwaiti parliament, between 15 and 20 of the 50 members are Islamists, while about 10 are liberals. The balance is held by "tribal" independents. In reality, however, the conservative tribal representatives tend to side with the Islamic bloc.

As a result, Islamic issues dominate public debate. Religious groups recently pushed through a law mandating segregation of the sexes on Kuwait University's modern, sprawling campus, and there have been calls for more hours of religious training each week in public schools.

ElGordoN Korea rejects UN nuclear inspectors#9069712/4/02; 04:27:37

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said Wednesday it had rejected a call by the U.N. nuclear watchdog to open its alleged weapons program to inspections.

"The DPRK government cannot accept the November 29 resolution of the IAEA board of governors in any case and that there is no change in its principled stand on the nuclear issue," North Korea's central news agency said, citing a December 2 letter from Foreign Minister Paek Nam-sun.

The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) is North Korea's official name.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) called last week on North Korea to open its atomic weapons program to inspections and said it "deplored" Pyongyang's assertion it had a right to possess the weapons.

The United States said North Korea had admitted to having a secret nuclear weapons program during a visit to Pyongyang in October by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly.

Paek sent the letter to IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei, the North Korean news agency said.

HenriHenri's Haiku#9069812/4/02; 05:06:08

Purity is gold's virtue
neither good nor evil it bears
use makes clear intent

NEMO me impune lacessitVote on CNBC : Gold is up#9069912/4/02; 05:07:17

What to invest in: possibility to vote for gold just now.


NEMO me impune lacessitVote-link#9070012/4/02; 05:15:59

HipplebeckNetting of derivatives#9070112/4/02; 06:49:28

I saw Greenspan talk about this legislation in front of the US congress. He was pushing hard to get it done.
Greenspan sees what's coming. If one of these derivative counterparties were to press for delivery of oil or gold or whatever in a crises, there would not be enough money in the world to secure delivery because the quantities of contracts far exceed the amount of the real goods. That fella on cnbc that comments on the bond trading floor was talking about 30 year treasuries last month saying that if any of the parties called for delivery of the bonds, there were not enough in existance to fulfill the contract. This is the case in all derivatives. It has to be the case in order to control the price of something. You must have enormous amounts of money available in order to hold the price of something against it's trend. You must have more money available to short something than the underlying value of what you are shorting if you hope to push the price down against the market fundamentals.
Greenspan knows that in a crises, the markets would lock up and the system would come crashing down. The offsetting with cash is the only way to prevent this.
My opinion is that when this legislation is passed, it will be the beginning of the end. It is like your insurance company telling you that they will give you monopoly money if your house burns down instead of paying to replace the house.
The system is melting.
The JPM suit now in court is over the question of credit risk insurance. Financiers have been selling insurance that they cannot possibly cover. They lay off as much risk as they can to unsuspecting parties (Like the parties arrayed against JPM) The whole thing of credit risk insurance is that it is an insurance scam. A con game that lets players feel confident that they are covered against all risk and therefore can leverage up farther and farther for that tiny margin of profit. An inverted pyramid built on the base of real things. They must continue to monetize all things into the market in order to keep the ponzi going.
I said a long time ago, that if things keep up I will be able to find a counterparty to monetize an acorn because theoretically, it will one day provide hundreds of board feet of oak. They have monetized years of gold recovery from the ground. This gold is already on paper and being traded in markets as if it is already out of the ground.
I have said many times that there is a lot more paper out there that says you have gold than there is gold in existance. It is the usual thing. It is the same as when a dollar was worth gold. They printed more claims on gold (dollars) than there was gold. Greenspan is looking at the age old problem of a run on the bank, when everyone realizes that their claims on something are just paper, and they will never be able to cash them in on the real thing.

GenooBeware the underlying value/risk#9070212/4/02; 06:54:10

Reference to ElGordo #90694

Plcacer Dome is a major gold company hedged to the eyeballs. In this environment I would not be long a dime.

Hipplebeckdollar claims#9070312/4/02; 07:01:22

What is money?
Even Greenspan has said he does not know.
Sometimes money is a dollar, sometimes it is a stock option or certificate, and sometimes it is a pokemon card.
Since going off the gold standard, no one knows what money is anymore.
gold is it's own intrinsic value.
A dollar is a claim on something.
How do we think of this?
Probably for most Americans they think of something they want to buy, as in how many dollars to get whatever. For financiers a dollar might be a mark on a scoreboard.
No matter how you think of it a dollar is a claim against something, and all over the world there are people holding dollars who have in their mind a mental image of what those dollars represent. Are there more dollars than stuff?
When everyone decides to claim what their dollar represents, there won't be as much stuff as people believe they are entitled to, so the dollar will lose value.
This is a heads up. There are going to be plenty of pissed off people when the dollar crashes. People from all over the world.

PizzDownunder#9070412/4/02; 07:03:48

Sinclairs article on derivatives and the bankrupsy law.

Lets say you're a bank and are short a January 2003 gold contract at 325 and long a March 2003 at 325 (examlple only). These are separate derviatives.

If you go BK in December 2002 and gold is at 400, the bankrupsy courts under current law throws out the loss on the short position, but will enforce and try to collect on the long position. The problem is that the counterparty to the short position is long and has a profit that he can't collect due to the bankrupsy. The counterparty to the long position is short and would have to pay up to the bankrupsy court.

The new law is trying to design a system where these two separtate derivatives contracts would offset, and I'm assuming they will try to match up the two counterparties and keep the system from totally unwinding.

If I owe you 100 dollars and Rich owes me 100 dollars and I go bankrupt, you lose and rich has to pay up to the court. Under the new law, I go under and Rich owes you the money.

Still one hell of a mess considering the variety of derivatives out there. It's probably more like I owe you $5, a gallon of oil, 10 yen, and a couple of car loads of wheat and Rich owes me 10oz of silver, a box of ten gauge shotgun shells (that he got from BB), and some rare seashells.

Big mess, but bottom line is that I think this is the bill that is to bail out our favorite derivatives bank.


CoBra(too)The 3.5 Trillion $ Sure Thing by Sinclair#9070512/4/02; 07:12:51

@ Downunder -
The "sure thing" derivative hedging, where the main volumes are enacted on uncontrolled OTC and other (killing) fields are assumed to become systemic risk factors of gigantic proportions. Hedging has deteriorated to pure and unadulterated financial gambling.

The risk is mainly with the grantors, financial institutions mostly and therefor risky to the $-reserve system, as the counterparties have gone missing not only due to the sheer size of the bets. This proposed new legislation offers an (sl)eazy way out of potential destruction by the mega players - JPM, Citi etc. No wonder, that Greenie has always advocated against more control of this sector. The PPT at its best, or is it worst, finding a way out for the usurpators, only?

This would particularily become a real problem if the underlying asset is gold, or silver which cannot be re-produced en masse, like paper. It may be only one aspect of the dilemma, though enough to boggle your mind.

So we're back to square one. Get the real stuff - get physical gold and relax -cb2

Hipplebeckmore on monetizing#9070612/4/02; 07:14:52

They have monetized, bundled and sold the future earning power of all Americans.
It is in mortgage asset backed securities
It is in student loan asset backed securities
It is in government treasuries.
They have monetized the earning's of the furture and taken out the profits now.
This is why the system will fail. It must grow exponentially to survive. How long can you steal future earnings of coming generations before everyone sees where it is going and how it must end?
That is why the new world order boys are in such a rush to get control of everything.
They are scared. They see what's coming.

PizzMore on the Bankrupsy law#9070712/4/02; 07:20:18

What I think will happen if say a major derivatives player goes under, they will set up a Resolution Trust of sorts similar to the way they bailed out the savings and loan.

All the derivatives will be pooled into this entity and they will spend the next 5 to 10 years sorting out the mess. Problems are going to crop up when they start to get to specific delivery issues, especially gold. Depends on how the derivatives are written.

Keep in mind, Greenspan has said that the Fed can and will monitize nearly everything if they want. Even buying a gold mine or two (did anyone think he was joking??). No matter what type of bailout organization is created, reat assured that they will have an open line of credit with the FED or treasury.

Even if they manage to stop a systemic derivatives failure, they will stop the unlisted derivatives market cold. The start of the paper failure that should have entities long comodity derivatives scrambling to get their hands on the product - like physical gold.


RockHow Low Can It Go?#9070812/4/02; 07:34:53

Hi all, I read an interesting article in Fortune Magazine the other day. It said forget Dow of 36,000 like the pied pipers chirped at one time, try Dow at 3600. It spoke about the chilling parallels from past bear markets. Despite billions lost in market capitalization the article went on to say we're not near a bottom, and I concur.

The Dow is just above its lowest levels since 1997. Some prominent companies like Ford Motor company are near lows not seen since the recession of 1991. Nelson D. Schwartz went on to say in his article that some of the worst recent losses have occurred in sectors that were once thought of as safe, such as banks and utilities. In fact, even the "Generals," Wall Streets nick name for blue chip stocks like General Motors and General Electric haven't offered any shelter from the storm.

The article went on to say that despite the merciless pounding in 2002, the typical S&P 500 Stock is selling at 17 times this years projected earnings. Thats about 10% higher than the average P/E over the past 60 years. "Alan Greenspan was right about irrational exuberance when the Dow was at 6400 in 1996. But instead of taking two aspirins and going to bed, we stayed up and drank tequila. And now we're facing a horrific hangover."

From peak to trough, the bear market of 1973-74 saw the Dow decline by 45% in just under two years. That compares with a 33% dip since the Dow peaked at 11,723 in January of 2000. An equivalent of 45% decline now would take the Dow close to 6448, or about 1,400 points below its close on Oct 11. Following the Crash of 1929 or perhaps the long-suffering Japanese market, which peaked in 1989 and has mostly slid downward ever since, hitting a 19 year low on Oct 9. "In both cases says David Tice you had asset bubbles, followed by long periods in which earnings declined.

His predictions for an eventual bottom are just as bleak, with the Dow sinking to 3000 by 2004 and the Nasdaq falling from its current 1210 to--get this 500. Thats a 90% drop from its peak in March 2000. How can things get that bad? One word: deflation.

Like the Blade says, its going to get worst, get out of debt, and start a nonperishable food storage program, store a few months of cash and keep your fingers crossed because it's going to get nasty out there. Stephen Roach says, We had a real deflation scare in 98. But there is a much bigger threat of deflation now."

In a word.......GRIM, but be of good cheer PMs are going to fly upward henceforth.


NEMO me impune lacessitCNBC POLL#9070912/4/02; 07:58:14


Gold: 27%

Hipplebeckcnbc#9071012/4/02; 08:09:40

I just sent them a letter.

Today you had a poll on investments. Gold was 27%.
Your commentators spoke briefly about gold as an investment for the last 20 or 25 years.
They did not mention that gold has been the best investment classs for the last two years.
I expect balanced coverage.
Is this just a stock selling show? Or a first class reporting team.
We are intelligent. We expect the same from your professionals.
Michael Hipplebeck

HipplebeckBurning fuse#9071112/4/02; 08:30:59

Burning fuse
MO VER MEGHipplebeck#9071212/4/02; 08:31:16

I truly appreciate someone who puts "pen in hand" - thanks.


HipplebeckBurning fuse#9071312/4/02; 08:36:35

Burning fuse
HipplebeckBurning fuse#9071412/4/02; 08:44:26,5478,5612341%255E401,00.html

Burning fuse
HipplebeckBurning fuse#9071512/4/02; 08:46:56

Burning fuse
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Why gold? Why now? (And how to get it...)#9071612/04/02; 09:41:31

Primary Trends Signal Opportunity for Skillful Investors

Just as the primary trend in gold is up as shown by our nearby
graph, the primary trend in stocks is down. If you diversify your
portfolio with gold, you not only gain by being in gold, you gain what
you would have lost in the stock market. Richard Russell, the
well-regarded long-time investment analyst who has correctly and
consistently forecasted the direction of both markets, says the stock
market and gold will cross in the 2000 to 3000 area
. Think about that
for a moment. What will that mean to your portfolio if not properly
diversified with gold? What will it mean if it is?

Gold for you is an easy phone call away.

We've been serving investors for three decades.
The assistance you want, the professionalism you need.

"As a lurker for almost three years it was the opinion expressed on this board as well as other commentary that forced my wife and I to examine the sanity of playing with our life savings in the stock market casino. We bailed completely as the Nasdog was crossing 4400 heading south and immediately went to the physical...the rest is history. Gratitude is an understatment for that heads up. I can't even begin to fathom where we might be otherwise."--Harry Harrison, aka Skydog.

kramrichBig move in gold is near according to TA.#9071712/04/02; 09:58:43

Gold looks like its going to make a big move within the next few weeks. And I would have to say it will blow right thru that $330 level. This formation started December of last year and it is coming to its end in the next few weeks. The TA guys will definately be watching this one.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Need Christmas gifts? Ask Jonathan what he has available for immediate delivery. He might pull a rabbit from a hat for you.#9071812/04/02; 10:05:18

The Small Order Desk

Who owns gold? Gold owners are the people who own the professional practices, the businesses, the industries, the shops, and who are the working folk that make "Western civilization" operate on a day to day basis. In most cases you will find gold owners to be among its most reliable and efficient practitioners precisely because we understand that is not the government nor through Wall Street that will insure our futures and make our lives rewarding. We are the software engineers, doctors, lawyers, school teachers, small business owners, college professors, retirees, civil servants, tradesmen, laborers and financiers alike -- all people who recognize the stability, permanence, utility, and simplicity of gold.

Friendly help for your first-time purchase and for your routine acquisitions!

Our Small Order Desk is for anyone who would like to buy less than $5,000 of gold bullion or pre-1933 international gold coins.

Items offered through this desk include the following.

Gold Bullion:
U.S. Gold Eagles (fractional sizes available)
Canadian Maple Leafs (fractional sizes available)
Austrian Philharmonics
South African Krugerrands
Gold Bars

Our full slate of pre-1933 international gold coins: (examples shown)
gold coins
TOP ROW: French Rooster (.1867 oz); French Angel (.1867 oz); Swiss Helvetia (.1867 oz); Belgian Leopold (.1867 oz)

BOTTOM ROW: British Sovereign (.2354 oz); Dutch 10 guilder (.1947 oz); and German 20 mark (.2304 oz)

We also offer U.S. Silver Eagles and Silver Canadian Maple Leafs in 100 ounce quantities or more. It's all priced right and in keeping with our long history of client service.

call for gold price quotes and information

speak with Jonathan, ext.110

HipplebeckBehind the curtains of the oiligarks#9071912/4/02; 11:14:22

Zalmay Khalilzad has just been appointed special envoy to the Iraqi opposition by the Bush administration.
Read about Zalmay in this article to see what the war is all about.

HipplebeckZalmay appointed by Bush#9072012/4/02; 11:17:44,0,5387203.story

Maybe the new Iraqi president.
steadytime to add another south american domino#9072112/4/02; 11:26:45

Ecuador's Foreign Debt $15.757B In Oct; Up 15% On Yr

QUITO (Dow Jones)--Ecuador's total foreign debt in October totaled $15.757 billion, up 15% from $13.702 billion in the same month in 2001, the central bank said Wednesday.

According to the monetary authority, the country's public debt hit $11.246 billion, up from $11.227 billion in the year-on-year comparison.

Private sector debt, meanwhile, stood at $4.511 billion, 82% from the $2.475 billion posted in October 2001.

The Andean country defaulted on its foreign debt obligations in 1999. In August of 2000, it carried out an exchange of Brady bonds and Eurobonds for new 30-year and 12-year bonds, which involved a 40% haircut for creditors. Holders of approximately 97% of the outstanding $6.46 billion in debt took part in the exchange.

After this, Ecuador also inked a restructuring deal with the Paris Club of bilateral creditors, involving $880 million in arrears and amounts maturing April 30, 2001.

-By Mercedes Alvaro, Dow Jones Newswires; 5939-9728-653; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

PizzHipplebeck#9072212/4/02; 12:15:54

Thanks for the Iraqi link.

The way the PM markets are behaving, there seem to be a lot of bets being placed (at the expense of the shorts) that Bush has some pretty good undisclosed evidence of WMD that Sadaam needs to disclose.

War games in real life with millions of lives and financial futures resting on the outcome.

We've got too much invested both in money (market proping), time, materials, and what little credibility our system has left to let him slip off the hook.

Question of the day - If you have a known bad guy, if all else fails, do you frmae him for something he hasn't done to remove him if he won't go away? Wouldn't be the first time.

Premptive wars are tough, cause you just never know if you really had to sacrafice the ones who died, still knowing that had you taken a more reactive stance, different deaths, more or less, may have been the outcome.

Miltarily I do not think we're past the point of no return, yet. Financially I think we are, so the war becomes more imperative if nothing more than a reason for the economy to crash out (it will sooner or later).

Very few realize this whole situation is much more financial than military, but that's just my opinion.

Either way, we are about to witness the death of many derivatives, manipulation, PM leasing, and the bulk of the paper house of cards.

Gold and silver shorts are about to melt, but they're giving it one last shot this week in hopes that Sadaam and Bush can kiss and make up this weekend. Both think the other has AIDS, so I'm not holding out much hope. Then we have Korea to contend with, and on, and on. . .

Keep buying the shiney stuff. . .


HenriHaiku revision 2nd try#9072312/4/02; 12:31:01

Pure is gold's virtue
neither good nor evil bears
use makes clear intent

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Gentlemen, Omega necklaces are THE hot fashion item out there#9072412/4/02; 12:35:31

Our very own lovely and talented Marie has used our network of connections to offer these beautiful and fashionable Omega necklaces to our clientele at prices WAY below what you will find in stores anywhere. We simply don't have to cover the overhead that jewelry stores do as they lease expensive space in the malls and on Main St., USA.

So call Marie 1-800-869-5115 ext.106 for great gift-giving suggestions and assistance, and avoid the steep jewelry store markups and sales taxes this year!

It will be the easiest thing you do all month. "Hello, Marie? What is an Omega necklace? My wife has been dropping hints about them for months..."

Cavan ManHey Randy....#9072512/4/02; 12:54:56

Where's the picture? I am talking to Marie now.
Black BladeDeflation fight would take Fed to unknown waters #9072612/4/02; 12:57:14;jsessionid=OPZ1SX2WMLG4GCRBAEZSFFA?type=economicNews&storyID=1852013


WASHINGTON, Dec 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve would be navigating largely uncharted waters should the unlikely become reality -- interest rates at zero, the U.S. economy still weak and prices spiraling downward. Economists and Fed officials say the central bank has the tools it needs to successfully fight deflation -- a potentially debilitating and self-reinforcing decline in consumer prices -- but they admit that many unknowns would complicate the effort. Those unknowns have led Fed officials to argue that in a low-inflation, low-interest rate environment the central bank should respond more aggressively to downside risks than it might otherwise in order to avoid the zero-interest-rate trap. "I think what the zero bound does, this concern about deflation does, it adds a little bit to the cost of being insufficiently easy," Fed Governor Donald Kohn told Reuters last week. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress last month that if lowering short-term rates failed to stem a deflationary tide, the central bank could still inject money into the economy by buying longer-term government debt to boost demand and turn prices higher. "There's virtually no meaningful limit to what we could inject into the system were that necessary," he said.

Black Blade: It appears that the stage is being set for a weaker US dollar.

TownCrierWhere do you think the world is going to turn for safety when bond go in the dumper?#9072712/4/02; 13:11:04

HEADLINE: Pimco's Gross Says Fixed-Income's Bull Market Is Over

Newport Beach, California, Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The bond market's bull run is over, said Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund.

A Federal Reserve that has little room left for lowering U.S. interest rates and a perceived determination to prevent deflation, combined with the prospect of larger budget deficits in the U.S., are all bearish signs for the bond market and point to smaller returns than in the past few years, he said.

The rally in Treasury prices this year peaked on Oct. 9, when the yield on the 4 percent Treasury note due in 2012 tumbled to 3.54 percent, a 44-year low. The yield has since climbed more than 60 basis points to 4.17 percent, as its price fell...

-------(article at url)-------

How stable and orderly do you think the bond market will be when a world of holders and prospective buyers expect that any treasuries bought today could only be sold at ever lower prices in the future?

A call to Centennial can diversify your portfolio very nicely and easily with gold -- a tangible asset that nobody should be completely without.


TownCrierCavan "Omega" Man, I'm working on it!#9072812/4/02; 13:16:03

In the meanwhile, even while you're flying blind you're in very good hands with Marie.


Cavan ManPOG BOUNCING around...#9072912/4/02; 14:03:20

"When the levee breaks...."

CM (aka 70's-80's rocker)

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Contemplating an IRA Rollover to include gold? George is your man.#9073012/04/02; 14:45:56

Call George 1-800-869-5115 ext.102

He's helped a lot of investors seemlessly through a process which might otherwise seem like putting a camel through a needle's eye. George says, "Gold and precious metals IRA's? No problem!"

hootHaiku#9073112/04/02; 15:01:10

First time poster..insatiable lurker since pre-Y2k and admirer of all the learned minds in attendance.

Ancient gold statues,
Passive tributes to wisdom,
Smile, as truths unfold.

a nation of oneRe: Hipplebeck (12/4/02; 06:49:28MT - msg#: 90701)#9073212/04/02; 15:10:36

Interesting message about derivatives. In your opinion, how does this fit with the idea that activity in precious metals derivatives compares strongly with the tulip craze, that, actually, the present value of gold in dollars is that much below where it ought to be, and that when the cards come tumbling down, gold will catapult through the ceiling?
ElGordoEuropean double dip?#9073312/04/02; 15:21:28

Brussels, Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Europe's economy may shrink in the first quarter, the second contraction in a decade, adding to pressure on the European Central Bank to lower interest rates.

Gross domestic product in the dozen countries sharing the euro may decline as much as 0.2 percent, the European Commission said. The only other contraction since the 1993 recession was in the final three months of 2001.

``The water is getting rougher and it's getting harder and harder to do business,'' said Folker Franz, an economic adviser at employers federation Unice, which represents 16 million businesses in Europe. ``It looks more and more likely that the ECB will lower interest rates.''

Cavan ManHey, Folker Franz...#9073412/04/02; 15:43:22

My heart bleeds for you.

'Tis tough to do business eh? Come to America and try selling boxes. Reverse auctions, over-capacity and China are killing us. Best man wins....CM (I should have been a gold salesman)
Gandalf the WhiteWELCOME Sir or LADY Hoot !!!! #9073512/04/02; 15:49:16

hoot (12/04/02; 15:01:10MT - msg#: 90731)
First time poster..insatiable lurker
WE love those insatiable types !

Gandalf the WhiteOK !! Someone fess-up !! <;-) I go away just for the morning -- AND !!#9073612/04/02; 16:39:51

Who has been feeding SPOT ?
(and what are you feeding him?!!!!)
Looks as if the US$325 barrier is being attacked by the SIEGE ENGINE !!
HELLO-- Sir Slingshot !!

SundeckHipplebeck #90701 and Pizz #90704 -- Derivatives Mess#9073712/04/02; 17:19:21

Just catching up on the daily gold goss at The Table - good posts guys - very succinct!!

Very funny Pizz - " box of ten gauge shotgun shells (that he got from BB)" - ho, ho, ho (good laugh).


ElGordoFed Deficit could rise to $5.4 TRILLION in the next decade!!!#9073812/04/02; 18:06:46;jsessionid=B1ZRLFGSYXGESCRBAEKSFFA?type=politicsNews&storyID=1852396

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. government could face deficits of almost $3 trillion over the next 10 years unless Congress faces up to reforming its budget process, a Republican senator said on Wednesday, citing an analysis by congressional budget forecasters.

The Congressional Budget Office analysis, requested by Sen. George Voinovich of Ohio, projects deficits of $2.9 trillion through 2012 if government spending continues to increase at the same rate it has in the last several years and recent tax cuts, currently set to expire after 10 years, are extended.

If Social Security funds are excluded, the cumulative deficit over the next decade rises to $5.4 trillion.

"Too many people around here are fooling themselves that we don't have a federal budget crisis," Voinovich told a news conference. "The budget accounting the federal government uses is so misleading it would make an Enron accountant blush."

In its latest official economic outlook in August, the budget office forecast the government would record a cumulative surplus of just over $1 trillion between 2003 and 2012.

But that outlook was required to assume federal spending increases would be held to the rate of inflation, even though they have generally far exceeded it in the past.
Holy Moly Batman, thats a lot of Guano.
The deficit now is just over $6 trillion.
In the next decade the deficit could just about DOUBLE!

CoBra(too)ECB Watchers - see a Rate Cut - Tomorrow#9073912/04/02; 18:07:46

The remaining Question: a full 50 BP's, or only 25? Only Otmar Issing doesn't see the necessity - yet.

In view of todays shouting match in the German Bundestag I feel a rate cut has to come. The opposition's Ms. Merkel challenged the chancellor Schroeder of winning the elections by pulling the wool over the electorate's eyes by fraudulently painting a rosy picture of the economy - and Hans Eichel was really spitting venom. - anyway, the red-green message has saved Austria from a similar fate.

That may be beside the point, though the EU has to start to think as its own entity and develop the chances they have in the still strongly growing East - and not only the new member candidates.

The exorbitant export dependence on the US consumer is becoming not only ridiculous, but also a stumbling block for the EU's own development. The more paper $'s the EU is acquiring now, the tougher it will be to achieve a real and lasting equilibrium in the current account. An equilibrium we'll probably never see - before monetization of all debt has swept away any semblance of fair trade. ... and that's the way the US Fed has openly declared (Bernanke) warfare on the rest of the globe.

Do I know, if Iraq is a real threat, or North Korea, or any other satanic state (remember Salman Rushdie -the satanic verses)? I only know that the US is starting to follow the footsteps of totalitarian regimes in order to save their superiority. Not only as the last remaining superpower - but predominantly in defense of their reserve $ -supremacy.

While the US castle walls, the constitution is crumbling, the freedom and liberty is eroding and the economic power is self-destructing in a vain attempt to save a semblance of a free Republic - delusion, corruption and counterfeiting is the name of the game.

Never, did I dream of putting these kind of words to paper, as I've been an admirer of the laissez faire most of my life. The last ten or so years have altered my position dramatically, if not radically I'm sad to say.

I still think that there may be a way out. A way which would mean to go back to the constitution and re-read what the founding fathers/brothers have intended!

... Is there a way out? - Accumulated debt in US $ in the USA is now 34 Trillion - more than a global annual GDP?

For me it's physical -even having euros ... and for you? - cb2

PS: Sorry for the rant - no-one needed that ... except I -(me)

ElGordoMassachusetts Meltdown#9074012/04/02; 18:26:34

Boston, Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Massachusetts' budget deficit could exceed $2 billion next year, the worst fiscal crisis since the 1930s, said Eric Kriss, the chief budget officer of governor- elect Mitt Romney.

Kriss, named by Romney this week to head the administration and finance department, said the former chief executive of Bain Capital LLC will try to save billions of dollars from the state's $23 billion budget by restructuring government.

``The most serious fiscal crisis in 60 years deserves the most far-reaching reforms in 60 years,'' Kriss said during a speech to the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce. ``As Mitt Romney has said repeatedly, this is going to take four years or longer to achieve.''

U.S. states this year are facing their worst fiscal straits since World War II, the National Governors Association reported last month. Total revenue for states fell 6.3 percent last year. That included a 10 percent drop in the fourth quarter that was the largest quarterly revenue decline in more than a decade, according to the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government.

Massachusetts tax revenue fell 10.4 percent in its last fiscal year, ended June 30, and Kriss said revenue this year may miss the state's lowered projection of 1 percent growth.

Massachusetts bondholders may see credit-rating downgrades, said William H. Ahern Jr., who manages about $950 million in municipal bonds with Eaton Vance in Boston.

``The state's under a lot of budgetary pressure,'' said Ahern. ``You've got programs that are politically difficult to cut, and tax receipts that are flat at best. There's going to be painful spending cuts.''
States nationwide also are struggling with a decline in revenue and escalating health-care costs, including a 13 percent surge last year, according to the governors association.

Massachusetts, which raised taxes last year about $1.3 billion to shore up a budget deficit, ranks 8th in per-capita spending at $4,945, according to the census bureau. State spending increased 113 percent between 1992 and 2002, according to the National Association of State Budget Officers.

Spending Explosion

The state also has the highest net tax-supported debt per capita in the nation at $3,267, far above the median average of $573. The state now employs 69,216 full-time employees, up from 62,988 in 1992.

``We've had an explosion in spending,'' Kriss said in an interview. He said the state's health care costs outpaced revenue gains even during the late '90s.

Cameron Huff, senior researcher with the non-partisan Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, said the state's Medicaid tab has doubled what it was 10 years ago to $3 billion this year.
The more I read the more dire this all seems to be. The states
are in serious trouble. Lots of debt in economy. Deficits exploding
everywhere, consumer deep in debt. All this money supply being
pumped into the system to avoid deflation, will eventually
create hyperinflation. Gold is the safe place to be.

R PowellDebts, gambles and margin #9074112/04/02; 18:29:23

Answer to (90704)

Hey Pizz! I put a package in the mail today returning the seashells but the postal service will not let me mail the ten gauge shotgun ammo so I added extra to the check for the $100 I owe, which is in a separate envelope.
I really hate to return the 10 ounces of silver. It's so hard to part with the physical stuff. Can I send you a certificate for 1/500th ownership of a Dec. 03 silver comex contract (worth 5000 ounces)? It may end up worth more than the present cost of 10 ounces but, then again, it may end up being less too. Also, there's a good chance it will be settled in fiat unless Rich becomes rich before expiration, in which case I'll pony up the rest of the greenbacks and ask for delivery on notice day. However, even then settlement may be in fiat, but if the comex can't deliver physical and insists upon a cash settlement, then your 1/500th contract value will probably be much more than the present price of 10 ounces but will be cash.
As for counterparty risk, margin is always required to back positions with the margin held by a holding company so neither party nor any brokerage is holding the "bet". If and as the position moves against one side, more money is required so the offsetting funds are always available. If not forthcoming- immediately (by same day bank wire) the unbacked position is offset along with whatever else can be sold to cover the necessary loss beyond what the margin covers. This rarely happens and is the reason why not only margin but "maintanence" money is required to hold positions in the game. In theory and by example (LTCM) rogue moves (sudden and large enough to exceed all backing funds) can occur and, of course, result in loss so beware before answering! This is Comex procedure, Lord only knows what the shysters are doing in the back room (huge OTC derivatives). I wouldn't get involved with that for love nor money!
P.S. Are you done showing my 20 pound gold nugget to your friends? If so, please send it along, I miss it.

ElGordoCapital spending in Japan going down, not up#9074212/04/02; 18:36:52

Tokyo, Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese businesses reduced spending for a seventh quarter in the three months ended September as companies such as Fujitsu Ltd. cut costs in response to slumping sales.

Capital spending by companies other than banks and insurance and other financial firms fell 2 percent in the third quarter from the second quarter, the Ministry of Finance said. A separate report showed that confidence among large companies rose to minus 5.9 in the fourth quarter.

Companies are cutting back as Japan's recovery from its third recession in a decade falters. Growth in the world's second- biggest economy slowed to 0.7 percent in the third quarter from 1 percent in the second. Growth is probably slowing further, economists say, after exports fell for four of the last five months.

``The outlook for business spending is dire,'' said Naomi Ogawa, spokesman at Fujitsu, which plans slash semiconductor- related investment to 45 billion yen ($361 million) in the fiscal year ending March 31 from 120 billion yen last fiscal year.
This is really bad news. Cap spending falling in Japan.

MSNBC just mentioned UAL is so broke
they got caught using tape to cover holes in the wing flaps
of 3 747's. They got fined $800,000. Considering they are losing
8 Million a day, its peanuts. They just got turned down for 1.8
Billion fed bailout. Get ready to hear about the biggest airline
BK ever.

JonGovt will do whatever is necessary to avoid deflation#9074312/04/02; 18:39:45

Wierd as it may seem, Govt will buy gold to force price up and give rise to inflation.
AndúrilSo says Jon.#9074412/04/02; 19:02:18

Seldom will you see more power in fewer words.
R PowellElGordo#9074512/04/02; 19:06:08

We're not call Taxachusetts for nothing. As elsewhere, we've too many citizens yelling gimme, gimme, gimme and not enough citizens displaying bumber stickers that say, "I owe, I owe, so off to work I go!"

I owe, I owe, so
Off to work and earn I go
That I may repay

ElGordoAbout that nugget#9074612/04/02; 19:42:05

I didn't know you gave that nugget to Pizz. I want it back!
You're darn right you owe, owe, owe.

R PowellSome thoughts from Jim Sinclair#9074712/04/02; 19:53:46

I lifted this from another forum. I'm not sure but I believe it is a partial transcript from an audio from financialsense. My own computer does not talk. As mad as the poor old fellow must get at me at times, he doesn't speak.
Sector and others were discussing Prechter, Elliot wave predictions and other forms of divination (claptrap?) recently. Here are some of Sinclair's thoughts, thanks to Goldustorm....

Jim Sinclair answers questions -- Goldustorm, 18:06:34 12/04/02 Wed
General Q & A Tuesday, December 3, 2002
"How can you be bullish on AU when Elliott Wave Counters are bearish?"
Q: The Elliott Wavists are projecting a "third" dip in the price of gold before a breakout about $320. How can you be bullish; while they are bearish?
A: Elliott Wave Counts always depends on the Elliot Wave counter him/herself. There are some that would disagree with you, but you are obviously using the Prechter school approach.
Q: You and others are blaming the lackluster gold price performance on the Fed/Bullion Bank/ Barrick type hedgers, but TA is predicated on "reflecting" mass psychology based on historical activity of that market mind set.
A: That is your interpretation of your TA as if Elliott Wave was all that TA is. That is somewhat Elliottistic, if I might say?
Q: A "few" minds (Fed et. al.) does not a market make. Doesn't the TA tend to break down as a prognosticator under these circumstances?
A: Yes, it does. So if Friday of this week gold has closed above $324.50, then proceeds over $326 and $330 breaking out of the three year CUP WITH HANDLE THAT HAS SYMMETRY RARELY EVER SEEN IN MARKETS, I advise that you do not keep yelling Elliott Heretic, stone the Elliot Heretic at me, thank you. We had a name in the 50s, 60s & 70s for Elliott Wave TA devotees that had no god higher than Elliott with no respect shown for all other TAs. That name was "BROKE." From 1980 to 2000, the market was a one-way street. How could anybody have been wrong? But was not Elliott's main practitioner bearish a tad early? Amazing the way devotees can forget indiscretions even if the indiscretion cost them everything if followed.
Tuesday, December 3 "What do you feel about silver vs. gold and the ratio?
Q: Jim, what do you feel about silver vs gold and the ratio?
A: Silver will be slow at the start, but will in time be competitive with and exceed gold in percentage return. I do not follow the ratio, because it is not a trading tool unless you wish to do a spread -- short one and long the other -- between gold and silver. I do not recommend that.
Tuesday, December 3 "Is gold buying in a pool something you'd recommend?"
Q: Is buying gold in a pool something you would recommend, Jim?
A: Buying into a gold pool violates the purpose of owning gold which is insurance against the financial incapacity of others. I imagine that the pools you are considering are honest and forthright, but I cannot recommend using a wrong medium for a right investment. How about a safety deposit box and one ounce bullion coins? That is not a major inconvenience.


Black BladeBanks fear liabilities in Wall Street probe #9074812/04/02; 20:13:48


Leading investment banks are battling with US regulators to stave off heavy legal liabilities that could arise from a settlement of investigations into Wall Street conflicts of interest. As the two sides enter final negotiations, the banks are resisting admissions of wrongdoing and pressing regulators to limit the disclosure of evidence against them. The banks fear that investigators' findings included in a settlement could boost class-action lawsuits filed by investors claiming they were misled by Wall Street analysts. Investment analysts and legal experts estimate damages from such suits could exceed $5bn. The regulators, led by Eliot Spitzer, New York attorney-general, want to provide ammunition for civil suits that could lead to "restitution" for investors.

Black Blade: Investment banks are in fear for good reason – they had "analysts" (of the likes of Henry Blodgett, Mary Meeker, Jack Grubman, etc.) who pumped up stocks that they knew were in financial distress for the purpose of filling their pockets with bonuses, to please their employers and win business for the underwriting side of the business. Shareholder lawsuits are already being filed and many more will be. JP Morgan Chase is attempting to defraud insurers and are now in court. These scammers are about to face the music as regulators and armies of lawyers descend upon them. Call it karma with a vengence. It should be lots of fun!

Black BladeUS car sales continue to fall#9074912/04/02; 20:27:00


Yet again, the three US car giants General Motors, Ford and Chrysler have all reported sharp falls in sales. General Motors saw sales fall 18% in November, Ford's sales fell 21% and Chrysler's sales were down 12%.

Black Blade: Even though auto sales surged earlier this year on deep discounts and zero percent financing, it did not translate into profits. We can see the same thing with retailers this Christmas season as deep discounts will hurt the bottom line. Merchants just don't have any pricing power left and they have to cut costs – in short more layoffs after Christmas.

Antipodean BugPrechter and the gold price#9075012/04/02; 20:35:46

As gold buffs we can be a fickle lot as James Sinclair
is discovering.
When the price ranges high we love to read commentaries about
a forthcoming ballistic surge…$375 then $510 maybe even $1200.
What it is to salivate.

Then when prices correct, like last week, we succumb to all the bear
torrents about how the price will sag to new all time lows.
Our moods become despondent.
My gut told me to go short!

Then the general media, sniffing the switch in sentiment, react with new headlines.
What they were publishing last week - Gold poised to go higher becomes
Gold set to resume its long bear trend.

And so is it surprising that the Elliott Wave genie is again let out of the
bottle to shock our senses once more about the possibility
of gold plumbing fresh lows below $200.

Now I am not a "wave" expert but I do have a copy of Prechter's 6th edition
Elliott Wave book where he specifically forecasts gold to bottom
at $197.50 – and perhaps lower.

But before we let fear begin dictating our trading habits, perhaps
it is worth some objective evaluation.

Firstly, Prechter's forecast is at least 13 years old and maybe even older.
Certainly the 6th edition of his book was written in 1989 where the
forecast is featured. This same publication forecast that "gold should
experience an extremely low valuation bottom in 1993-1994, plus or
minus one month."
The book talks about the "aftermath" of this price collapse "could be
a dramatic re-inflation, or even hyperinflation, probably mid-decade."
Given the date of the publication, and the forecast for the decade ahead, Prechter was projecting a collapse in the price of gold mid 90's ushered in by a new era of inflation.

Of course that didn't happen. But the Prechter forecast lives on – and the
imminent collapse of gold to the same projected low is being freshly touted
by the Elliott theorists.

Ok, so maybe Prechter was right about the projected bottom (below $200)
but what value is a forecast that is 10 years out on the timing. Even a stopped
clock tells the right time twice a day!

sectorThe 16,000 tonne question and...Checkmate#9075112/04/02; 20:51:18

The 16,000 tonne question is :

How many tonnes of gold have the central banks loaned and then were sold into the markets to keep the price of gold suppressed?

Gold Fields Mineral Services and the World Gold Council report 4,000 to 5,000 tonnes.

Data from The Bank for International Settlements has a different take.

Black BladeLeaked mining charter drains billions out of the country's coffers #9075212/04/02; 20:54:42


Johannesburg - Foreign investors offloaded billions of rands of South African shares in the third quarter of this year, the first time since late 1996, in the wake of the leaked draft mining empowerment charter, the Reserve Bank said yesterday.

Black Blade: Yeah, it did it for me too. I bailed out after SA government officials started to get rather squirrelly. This type of thing will mean fewer companies will pursue opportunities there and perhaps lead others already there to look elsewhere menaing another dip in gold production. The SA government is too unpredictable and the majority of the populace are looking to seize profits/property and that's unfortunate as there are a couple of good SA miners with excellent management. But it was time to book some profits anyway.

ElGordoOil exports affected in Venezuelan turmoil#9075312/04/02; 21:04:44

Caracas, Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Thousands of Venezuelans marched in the capital as a strike against President Hugo Chavez entered its third day and slowed oil shipments in the world's fifth-largest petroleum exporter.

``There have been some delays in export shipments, but we have fulfilled our commitments,'' Ali Rodriguez, president of the state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela SA, told reporters. He denied news reports some refineries were close to shutting down.

Venezuela exports about 2.4 million barrels of oil a day. An eight-day work stoppage in April halted oil shipments from the fourth-largest exporter of crude to the U.S. and led to a coup that deposed Chavez for two days.

Venezuela's opposition began the strike at the beginning of the week and said it would continue the protest tomorrow in a bid to force Chavez to step down or call a referendum on his presidency. Opponents said the president's policies have pushed the economy into recession, while increasing unemployment and crime.

The Pilin Leon tanker, carrying 44 million liters (11.6 million gallons) of gasoline, was halted by its crew in Lake Maracaibo in support of the strike, Globovision television reported. It wasn't immediately known whether the tanker is blocking the shipping channel from the lake to the Gulf of Venezuela through which 50 percent of the country's oil exports flow.

Mr GreshamAntipodean Bug#9075412/04/02; 21:04:59

Touche' on Prechter: "Prechter's 6th edition
Elliott Wave book where he specifically forecasts gold to bottom at $197.50"

Interesting that when we look at charts -- of ANY type -- we are quantifying the movements in terms of the Dollar metric. As if that had any permanence, or omniscience, behind it!

It is the movement of Value -- difficult of measurement -- of one thing (gold) in terms of the universe of values of all other things -- even more difficult to elicit the composite figure! -- its interchangeable purchasing power, that would make a fair charting to THEN test the Elliott figures against.

The US Dollar is only one commodity among many. And a politically-charged one at that. We here, of all who read of things economic, know that.

Or else, there is just some magic wand of charting (Elliott Wave or otherwise) that just lets you pick one thing to chart everything against, and -- Behold! Let it be so!

My understanding of TA charting is that it measures the tides of human emotion, and, yes -- there are points at which humans remember the USD figures of different turning points in their own memory. And the USD has been something of a rock amidst the sea of turmoil. So that militates somewhat for its use. (In this case, how many of us will dump physical if it should drop under a technical low of $253??? Not bloody likely! Sometimes a bargain value is just a bargain value, and doesn't attempt to predict anyone else's momentum-inspired pile-on actions.)

But the underlying wrenching adjustment that comes when all the bills for USDollar manipulation come due? That turns ALL USD charts into meaningless babble, no? Find a new standard to chart against. A more stable one against the general commodity basket would be the best. Are we onto it here?

Black BladeBush policy helps US mining#9075512/04/02; 21:10:00,3523,1239930-6078-0,00.html


SPOKANE, Washington - The business-friendly Bush administration and national security concerns have combined to create a favourable climate for U.S. mining interests, an industry leader said. Anti-Western sentiment in countries with large Muslim populations are prompting companies to seek safer locations for new mines, said Laura Skaer, association executive director of the Northwest Mining Association. "Major companies are looking for politically stable parts of the world for exploration and investment dollars," Skaer said. "We want to let people know there are exciting mineral opportunities in the U.S. and North America and South America." Environmental restrictions have long made the opening of new mines difficult in the United States, but the Bush administration is making that easier, Skaer said.

Black Blade: Didn't make it to Northwest Mining convention this year. It usually is fun with a lot of partying miners though. Geopolitical instability could also affect gold production in the future. Even so, it will take higher gold prices to convince miners to pursue new projects. It takes several years to explore and start a new mine. Gold production will fall off sharply in the next couple of years as older and unprofitable mines close.

Black BladePowell Says U.S. `Absolutely' Sure Iraq Has Illegal Weapons#9075612/04/02; 21:22:00,&s2=ad_right1_windex&tp=ad_topright_topworld&refer=topworld&


Washington, Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said the U.S. is certain Iraq has weapons of mass destruction and warned Saddam Hussein's regime to acknowledge that in a declaration to the United Nations on Saturday. ``We are absolutely sure as a matter of record that Iraq has had weapons of mass destruction in the past,'' Powell told reporters during a trip to Bogota. ``We are absolutely sure that it has continued to develop weapons of mass destruction. And we're sure they have in their possession weapons of mass destruction.'' ``They'd better acknowledge it and make those programs accessible to the UN inspection teams,'' he said.

Black Blade: Damned if they do and damned if they don't. If they acknowledge having WMD then they are in violation and if they deny having WMD they will be in violation according to the US administration. Looks more and more like war.

Black BladeHezbollah calls for global attacks #9075712/04/02; 21:28:32


LONDON — The leader of the Lebanese Muslim group Hezbollah is urging a global suicide bombing campaign, increasing the prospect that the regional conflict between Arabs and Israelis will expand to mimic or even merge with al Qaeda's war against the West.

Black Blade: And so it goes – another threat.

Chris PowellCentral bank gold short position is bigger than suspected#9075812/04/02; 21:32:33

Howe/Bolser study of BIS data shows that the
central bank gold short position is much larger
than assumed:

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ElGordoMoscow attack financed by Saudi's?#9075912/04/02; 21:42:31,2763,854004,00.html

Russian security officials suspect that the Chechens who seized a Moscow theatre in October had wealthy Arab sponsors in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states and have sought Washington's support in finding the financiers.

Senior officials say they have traced a series of telephone calls from the gunmen to their "sponsors" in the Gulf.

During one call made to an unspecified Gulf state a financier asked for a video of scenes inside the theatre, and was told it could be made for a $1m fee.

"Several long telephone conversations were intercepted to Saudi Arabia, to the Emirates, and to Qatar.

"We can say for sure that the hostage-taking was financed from abroad, and the terrorists maintained permanent contact with their sponsors."

He added that the leader of the hostage-takers, Mosvar Barayev, and several of his fellow Chechens had planned to flee to the Gulf once the crisis was over.

Black BladeSimmons & Co. bullish on North American natural gas outlook #9076012/04/02; 21:49:32


HOUSTON, Dec. 4 -- The outlook for the 2003 North American natural gas market hinges on storage because flat-to-declining supply coupled with power generation demand should tighten the gas market, Houston-based Simmons & Co. International said. "The US natural gas production treadmill is more visible than ever, and with a lethargic rig count that continues to show no signs of recovery in the near term, we believe that 2003 production will likely decline 1.5%," said David Pursell of Simmons & Co. "In fact, we forecast a market tight enough that industrial demand will not be able to grow, as the supply of natural gas will simply not be available, and industrial demand is the marginal consumer," he added in a Nov. 8 research note. Assuming an 8% warmer than normal winter, Simmons & Co. sees gas in storage on Mar. 31, 2003, approaching 1,200 bcf compared with 1,518 bcf on Mar. 31 of this year.

Black Blade: I think we can forget about a warm winter like last year. Currently the US is gripped in an Artic chill with an early withdrawal from storage. Rig counts are at very low levels and production declines have outpaced even the most optimistic predictions. I think that we can count on higher energy costs this next year. This also means that we can write off any "economic recovery" because energy costs will drop straight to the bottom line and any pickup in economic activity will only aggravate the tight energy supply situation. Actually the situation is more dire than many think - I am still compiling a lot of info but it certainly does look very "grim".

PizzRich#9076112/04/02; 21:51:32

I'm a bit under the weather, but hang on to the 10 gauge shells and we'll split the proceeds when BB gets desperate.

The taliban ups serivce soon to start up will not have a bit of a problem shipping them after the shit hits the fan. (got some plutonium laying around for later delivery? (smiling and not serious). Container vans in long beach are still half empty and un regulated.

I'll let you keep your paper silver, I've got more than enought to carry anyway, and delivery on comex may be a bit of a wait. I will trade you my gallon of oil for 2 galons of gas (uleaded of course). Hate to eat cold Dinty more stew in stock and my coleman won't burn 10w30.

But wait, I've got a better idea. We both have pm's and we should be able to barter our way to survival. Problem is those damn 10 gauge shells - maybe BB will pay an ounce or two a piece for them - or sell his gun cheap for a couple ounces of Ag.

Hope like hell I'm just funnin', but. . . . . .


On a more serious note, 45 years ago when I had to get my smallpox vaccination for school, they tried three times and it wouldn't take. The doctor said I was wither going to catch it and die real quick or I was naturally immune. My luck I'm naturally immune and could spend my last years in a government concentration camp with tubes in every orafice while they try to figure out why. One more reason to have physical gold, to buy may way out of that type of situation.

To bed, posting after two too many scotches is either funny or redundant, and I'llll leave that to the forum to decide.

later.. . . .


DOWNUNDER@Hipplebeck , Pizz & CoBra(too) - - Re Replies To: The 3.5 Trillion $ Sure Thing by Sinclair#9076212/04/02; 21:51:44

Thanks guys for the excellent summary on the above article.
Sinlair is shure putting in a lot of work for the pro gold lobby and is much appreciated.hope the message gets out to the not so well informed. bbml

Buena Fea bit off t, but worth it.#9076312/04/02; 22:17:10

Kissinger will be required to list clients
By Edward Alden in Washington
Published: December 4 2002 21:59 | Last Updated: December 5 2002 0:05

.......The tussle over Mr Kissinger's client base is the latest spat between the families and the White House, which had long resisted forming a commission to investigate why the US failed to head off the September 11 attacks.........

i've got to admire the tenacity of this family group, they are becoming a serious thorn in the estabby's side. mus-be gold bugs at heart.

Black BladeOil and gas industry facing labor shortage#9076412/04/02; 22:19:41


AUSTIN - An aging work force and inadequate educational opportunities will contribute to a serious labor shortage for oil and gas companies, according to industry officials. Some experts said the blame lies with the industry itself. "Our reluctance to accept responsibility on recruiting new talent is socially irresponsible, morally unacceptable and contradictory to what I know we all stand for, which is to be a major leader in American industry," said Mark Baxter, director of the Maguire Energy Institute at Southern Methodist University. A report by a task force of the Petroleum Professionals was troubled by the average age of employees for the major operators and service companies - between 47 and 50. "With the average retirement age for the industry being 55 years, it is obvious that the industry faces a crisis in the next seven to 10 years as more than half of the employee base leaves the business," the panel said in its report. In addition, some officials told the commission, decreasing enrollments at universities are contributing to a decline in the quality of major educational programs.

Black Blade: Who can blame people for not pursuing a career in petroleum (or mining for that matter). The industry is too unstable and talent is lured to other careers with better compensation. The industry has itself to blame. Nevertheless, there is an energy crisis building and in the next few months everyone will feel it.

Black BladeRe: Pizz and Rich - 10ga. Shells#9076512/04/02; 22:28:19

Sorry guys, I am keeping my 10 gauge "goose gun" (Browning) and I got lotsa shells (and reloading equipment). Still got one goose left in the freezer and a few ducks too. There aren't any ducks around here now as the area is buried under snow and it's about 10 degrees F outside. Not long until "ice fishing" though and lotsa lakers, rainbows, and brown got my name on em. Now to finish my "antelope stew" I made up today.


- Black Blade

Black BladePrice of Natural Gas May Balloon This Winter #9076612/04/02; 22:47:58


Dec 04, 2002 (The Bakersfield Californian - Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News via COMTEX) -- A harsh winter could lead to natural gas shortages and drastically higher prices for consumers, producers and industry observers say. "As the U.S. recovery really gets going and if we have a cold winter, we're going to see sharply higher natural gas prices," said Stephen Brown, director of energy economics for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. "In the next few years, we're going to hit some severe bottlenecks." Many energy executives expect to see higher gas prices sooner rather than later. "It could last indefinitely -- for the next 24 to 36 months," he said. Natural gas consumption grew by 14 percent in the United States from 1990 to 2001, according to the federal Energy Information Administration. That pace is expected to continue in coming years. At the same time, experts say, natural gas production is inadequate to keep up with demand. "We're not drilling enough wells to go get it," said James Sigmon, the chief executive of the Exploration Co. of San Antonio.

Black Blade: It's reported that east coast consumers will likely see utility rates rise by double digits as the weather turns colder with this next approaching storm system according to some industry experts. The southeast is getting hit hard by cold weather now and the Midwest is getting hit too. I wonder if this cold weather will dash the Christmas shopping season hopes of many retailers. The financial media always drones on about how the weather stimulates or detracts from consumer shopping. Hmmm…

Black BladeAsian Markets Generally Lower#9076712/04/02; 23:10:36

Most Asian markets are in the red and the Nikkei 225 goes sub 9,000 again.

- Black Blade

Black BladeUnited Airlines plea for federal loan guarantee rejected#9076812/04/02; 23:56:34


WASHINGTON (AP) -- United Airlines lost its bid for $1.8 billion in federal loan guarantees in a major setback to the nation's second-largest air carrier in its efforts to avoid bankruptcy. The Air Transportation Stabilization Board said Wednesday that despite efforts to pare costs, "the business plan submitted by the company is not financially sound." Chicago-based United had asked that the government guarantee $1.8 billion of a $2 billion private loan package. Without the guarantee and the loan, the airline has said it would probably have to file for bankruptcy protection.

Black Blade: Looks like "another one bites the dust".

Liberty HeadRe: United Airlines#9076912/5/02; 00:14:36

I have a hunch the bailout was turned down to give UAL more leverage with the unions. Considering that the government doesn't mind a $12 billion price tag for 429 bomb sniffing machines that can't tell chocolate from plastic explosives and 50,000 new federal airport proctologists to screen for terrorists, the "protecting the taxpayer" line is weak.


slingshotGandalf the White#9077012/05/02; 01:03:23

All at the Forum

Fantastic posts! Plenty in the news and lots going on in the markets. Times like these will surely separate the Goldbug from the Goldworm.
" We didn't start the Fire, It was always burning, since the world been turning" Billy Joel from Storm Front.
How about that Elliot Wave. Gold to $197.50. Bring it on.

What would be the Line in the sand after that? Hmmm.
Things might get tough. Goldbugs are tougher.

Another question. Where would you be financially if you did not read the forum here at USAGOLD?

The Siege Engine (trebuchet) is still throwing one stone (ounce) at a time. As for the Story, I am working on it as time permits. Long hours at the MILL.

The word for tonight/morning is TACAMO.

Take Charge And Move Out.


Black BladeWeapons Inspectors Find Mustard Gas and Possibly Chemicals#9077112/05/02; 01:06:03


A team from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) spent five hours examining buildings. Several tons of uranium have been under seal by the IAEA at Tuweitha since 1998. Inspectors from the U.N. Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission searched the sprawling Muthanna military site, some 45 miles north of Baghdad. They said they found artillery shells at the desert complex containing mustard gas that previous inspectors could not destroy before they left in 1998. "Of course we are interested because it is a good quantity of mustard," said chief inspector Dimitri Perricos. Reporters saw warehouses full of destroyed weapons such as bombs that could be filled with chemicals, as well as rusting equipment ranging from tanks to metal pipes. A foul smell wafted round the site, and Iraqi officials said it came from remaining chemicals. Near the entrance stood a picture of Saddam. A herd of camels made their way through a hole in the complex's fence.

Black Blade: This could develop into something interesting.

Black BladeGold Poll at CNBC?#9077212/05/02; 02:01:18

Hell if I can find it. There is a lot of discussion at another site about a Gold Poll" on CNBC's site, but I have no idea where to find it. Anyone have a link?

- Black Blade

The CoinGuyGold Poll Request Granted sir BB#9077312/05/02; 02:29:14

Thanks for filling my "sometimes" sleepless nights...Studying the charts.

The CoinGuy

Black BladeUS Market Indicators#9077412/05/02; 02:50:29

US market index futures flat, USD flat, Gold flat, and petroleum soaring. Unemployment data is due out this morning so anything can happen - it all depends on the spin.

- Black Blade

SpartacusPimco's Gross says US bond bull market is over#9077512/05/02; 03:06:35

NEW YORK, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Bill Gross, who manages the world's largest bond fund, said a probable increase in the inflation rate means the three-year U.S. bond bull market is over.
"Despite the Fed's 'guarantee' to prevent deflation there is no assurance that they can create substantial inflation," said Gross. "But a determined Fed and a spendthrift Congress that may at some point in the next 24 months produce a $500 billion fiscal deficit are a powerful combination." -

ElGordo@Spartacus#9077612/05/02; 03:48:24

Thanks for the Forbes article with Gross. I saw him on CNBC
today but caught only the last few seconds.

When the market was going down, money went to bonds anticipating a fed cut when the economy showed weakness. The fed can still pump money into the economy by various other means, BUT no more room for meaningful rate cuts. The fed is flooding money into the system so inflation is likely in future.

When bonds topped out recently, money went into the market,
thus this rocket rally. The valuations are really high now so,
where can you put money? With inflation coming bonds no good.

Every time Gold reaches 325-330, it gets knocked down. I think
the central bankers sell it down. They don't want to see a reason
to have to raise interest rates in a weak economy. The mantra
is constantly, "there is no inflation" look at Gold.

The fed wants to flood the economy with easy money to try and
fend off deflation (makes paying off debt even more expensive).
But they push Gold down so they don't have to raise interest
rates. They are trying to steer money back into equities.

The establishment can't do this for ever. When the market rally
starts to correct, where can the investor go? When inflation
starts to creep up, and Gold starts to move, the Fed will have to
raise interest rates. Then the stock valuations will be even more
over valued.

Thats when the market really takes a fall. Dollar falls. Gold goes
up and the soft landing turns ugly.

Bill Gross is smart and usually correct. If he says bond market
has topped, I believe him. But he never mentioned Gold. Strange?
They all know that if Gold goes up, market and dollar down.

When investors start to anticipate inflation, big market fall.
Inflation is out there, it just does not show up in statistics.
Look at the CRB. I don't think I have heard CNBC types
or Kudlow and Cramer EVER mention the CRB. They know if
the market gets a whiff of inflation, the market will tank and
they all are dedicated to pumping equities. Comments?

Spartacus@ ElGordo #9077712/05/02; 05:19:57

More thoughts from Bill Gross in his latest Investment Outlook.

---the forcefulness of Bernanke's speech tells observers plenty about the ultimate winner in the battle between inflation and deflation. Avoiding deflation it seems depends not only on appropriate policies, but on the resolve of government authorities and their agencies to implement them. Both Euroland and Japan seem to cower in front of an imaginary inflationary bogeyman, but this speech by Bernanke - my, oh my - the title says it all - "Making Sure (Deflation) Doesn't Happen Here." Bernanke listed several heretofore rarely used policies that would be emphatically employed by the Fed to avoid deflation: (1) should conventional open market purchases of Treasuries not do the trick, the Fed would extend out on the yield curve to include even long-term bonds, (2) the Fed could influence the yields on privately issued securities - corporates and mortgages - in order to lower the cost of private credit, (3) the Fed would buy foreign government debt in a thinly disguised attempt to lower the dollar and increase U.S. competitiveness and inflation at the same time. I must tell you, Bond Man, I believe them. ---

BelgianTarek Aziz - Iraq#9077812/05/02; 05:20:22

The US only goal is to acquire full control of the entire Middle Eastern, Arabian oil.
This fella might have it completely right :
Soon, not enough Gold will be available to keep up with the cheap oil flows. The globe cannot serve Asian Gold hoarders AND Gold for oil with a declining availability of physical.
All Australian Gold is already shipped straight to Dubai and 3.000 tonnes of underground Gold have already been swapped for future oil. Most of the CBs have reached their minimum levels of goldreserves and there are no other states (like Libanon for instance) found ready to help us out with their goldreserves to keep cheap oil coming.

With the POO at today's temporary equilibrum price of +25$, Gold is flowing to the ME at the equivalent of 260$.
Once the scarcety-pressure on available physical, forces POG higher...the POO must rise proportionately as to keep the POG constant for the ME-Gold-Accumulators.
We can no longer demand that the Asians stop or diminishe their Gold accumulations, given the circumstances.

The only solution left is to go for the oil because we are running out of Gold !

ElGordo@Spartacus#9078012/05/02; 05:36:13

Thanks for another great article! I admire Gross but haven't
followed his writings. He seems to really know his stuff.
If you find more such articles in future, please share them with us.
I like this part also:

"There is nothing so inflationary as a whiff of deflation." High levels of personal and corporate debt need to be reflated away. Pricing power needs to be restored to rejuvenate corporate profits. Pension liabilities need to be diluted by increases in interest rates. State and local budgets need to be bolstered by higher levels of taxes which are most easily obtained by inflation as opposed to tax hikes. Our levered American economy requires at least a modicum of inflation in order for it to continue to function as we have experienced it. How much? 2-3% is desirable. An overshoot, which has been the historical precedent, might at some point give us more.

SpartacusLula Has Big Ideas And Bigger Problems#9078112/05/02; 05:55:41

New Canaan, Connecticut, Dec. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is off to a flying start. That is, he is flying around Latin America drumming up support for his dream of continental unity.

Lula is telling leaders in Argentina and Chile that he wants them to help him form a pan-South American parliament and a replace their local currencies with a single Latin American currency.

It seems Lula has caught euro fever: ``We are seeking true integration, following the example of the European Union.'' That comment was made during his meeting with President Eduardo Duhalde in Argentina. Lula's not even in office yet, and he has a plan to reorganize the whole continent.--

WAC (Wide Awake Club)Euro rates slashed to boost growth#9078212/05/02; 05:58:24

Mounting fears over the sluggish eurozone economy have prompted the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut its key interest rate by a hefty half-point, to 2.75%.
The move follows more than a year of ECB inaction on rates, despite cuts enacted by other major central banks.

Europe's economy has shown increasing signs of stagnation, but the ECB has kept rates high to fight inflation, which has remained persistently high.

Despite the ECB's refusal to help boost eurozone growth, a half-point cut this time had been widely predicted by analysts.

The cut was also seen as likely to help buoy financial markets, as the single currency has come under pressure over fears that the eurozone economy might fall behind a resurgent US.

ElGordoThoughts on Iraq#9078312/05/02; 06:02:53

Bush is spending $$$ preparing for war while the world increasingly thinks he is an idiot and a warmonger.
Bush has often been underestimated in his career so whats he up to?

He pressured the UN to send inspectors and he pressured Iraq
to let them in. In 2 weeks the inspectors have found nothing
and the media speculates that Saddam has outsmarted Bush.

Bush also got the UN to make Saddam certify to the security
council that Iraq has no WMD. Could Bush be holding trump cards
close to his chest?

On Dec 8 Saddam will certify that Iraq has NO WMD. No surprise coming here. But, suppose a few days after Dec 8 Bush releases
info (like satellite pics) that proves Saddam has WMD?

Russia, France, China, India and most of the rest of the world
wind up with egg on their face. Saddam looks like a dangerous
dictator with WMD who lies to the UN and the world. Bush looks
like the knight in shining armour that was right all along.

The UN security council then votes unanimously to remove Saddam.

If Bush has no evidence of WMD and the inspectors drive
around like idiots finding nothing, then Bush is a dangerous
moron. A man trying to start a war for no good reason.
The world will be against him no matter what he tries to do.

I can't believe the administration hasn't thought this through.
They better have evidence to show the world after Dec 8.

The media thinks Saddam has outsmarted Bush. I tend to think
Saddam, the world media and the UN are about to get a big surprise
......a surprise they didn't see coming.... apparently.

Saddam will fall into a trap on Dec 8. There is no way out now.
He has to lie and hope Bush has no evidence. I figure the war
will start after the holidays are over. Another kind of Superbowl
coming this Jan? The Superbowl for cheap oil?

CoBra(too)Marc Faber on the Financial Sector#9078412/05/02; 06:26:33

His gloomy outlook on the financial sector doesn't bode well for the future outlook on the economy, SM's and the housing sector. A credit crunch of severe proportions may be just around the corner.

Interestingly, he sees the european and particularily the swiss banks as the most risky, due to their catching the tail end of a trend, almost always.

A good read -cb2

Cavan Man@CB (too)#9078512/05/02; 07:29:06

I also know about those Harvard educated (no offense 2U Class of???) McKinsey guys (I refer to the more recent crops of grads). They are ruining the industry I am in (along with many others) with their reverse auctions. SO......I buy AU. (for the long haul).
BelgianThe zero % interest rate *trap*....#9078612/05/02; 07:34:00

Low > lower IRs solve NOTHING, as stated by Duisenberg earlyer ! Zero IRs only serve one purpose : refinance the growing debt-berg and hope on delaying the final execution > DEFAULT AND HYPERINFLATION.
Declining IRs only result in a contracting economy where the dying debtors need morphine for a painless agony.

Ask the unemployed (5,7%-US / 9%-Europ and rising fast) if a zero IR is having any effect on any aspect of their economic life ? Amen.

Hipplebeckmorning rant#9078712/05/02; 07:37:30

The similarities between the financial markets and gambling are remarkable. Now that there are so many derivatives that are not even trading actual things, but just making bets on the direction of things, the similarities are even more.

The government/fed partnership is one I have seen in Chinese gaming.
There is the dealer who takes the bets and pays out, and sitting next to him is a corporate person who conducts a sort of open market window for the dealer. They
even call that person the corporation. (usually it is a very sexy girl for some reason)
What once was intended to be a government accepting your gold or silver and coining
it for you at no charge so you can use that coinage as money, has now become the greatest ponzi scheme ever constructed.
America is now bundling, securitizing, and selling it's land and homes and the future earnings of it's college students to the world. It is also running up a huge
bill through the government that is so high, it is expected to be paid for by people who haven't even been born yet.
And yet what do our own leaders do? Encourage us to borrow more to get us out of debt.
America's administration goes all over the world telling everyone how to be free and peaceful.
They should take the log out of their own eye before pointing out the sliver in someone's elses eye.
People are not free anymore here. We are in bonded servitute from birth.
Someone has already put your future earnings
into debt the moment you are born or become a US citizen
You believe that you can own your own home, but you never own it. If you don't pay tribute every year, some agency will take it away from you.
I watch my government leaders brag about the wealth of America as if they created it themselves.
They act as if they own the world.
The US is so far out of whack right now that I don't know where to begin, so I begin with making gold money again so we can trade freely and get the size of
federal government back down to the size it was intended to be. By going back to gold, we can eliminate the corporation that now creates our pretend money.

In the constitution, money was never intended to represent debt, The federal government was to remain small with the state governments being strong. The idea of government is to assist in making people's lives easier,not burdening
them and future generations

The collection of tribute is what funds empire. This country was formed in a tax revolt.

CaseyHaiku#9078812/05/02; 08:04:49

Just a morning haiku for y'all, while my coffee does it's thing...

The dollar falters
Worthless government paper
Good thing I have gold

Mr GreshamHipplebeck (12/4/02; 06:49:28MT - msg#: 90701)#9078912/05/02; 08:36:26

"Netting of derivatives" -- Hipplebeck: You nailed the whole picture in just a couple paragraphs, with all of the kinesthetic sense of the hydraulic pressures built up and the attempt to calm it down with paper dollars, against the inevitable sudden loss of confidence in those dollars.

I picked up Rothbard's "Case Against the Fed" for a few moments last night; the word "deflation" as it's being used today really translates to "system illiquidity" and a run on the Fed/member banks system. The whole reason for instituting central banking in the first place is to postpone this event. Postpone as long as possible. We are now looking at "as possible".

MKThe Interest Rate Wall. . .What It Means to Current and Future Gold Owners#9079012/05/02; 09:12:09

Belgian and All. . . .

What Duisenberg should say is not that "lower interest solve nothing' but that "sooner or later you hit a wall if the only weapon you've got is the interest rate." There is no uncertainty as to where it will end. That's why the Fed went to so much trouble over the last two weeks to convince Wall Street and the business community in general that there was more to the arsenal than just interest rates. What was that line about "printing money" as the ultimate "weapon?"

Financial Times reports this AM that Japan wants to take the yen to 150 to 160 -- a 25% devaluation. Soon they will pay Japanese investors for the privilege of holding a currency which finance minister Shiokawa wishes to debauch.

Meanwhile, the US based CRB is up 27% since it's October 2001 low. Commodities are pointing the way and the real reason why we witnessed a key reversal (200 points) in the DJIA on Monday. The investment world knows where to go. Quietly, stocks and bonds are being sold and gold is being bought. The anti-bubble is the dark hole of the investment world -- Japan has already succumbed. Will the United States and Europe follow?

My bet is both the euro and dollar will hit the interest rate wall -- the United States and Europe, at least in terms of economic policy, will follow Japan into the dark hole though they may get different results. (that discussion I will save for another time) Gold's the only way out for the portfolio planner. And we continue to counsel to buy now WHILE YOU CAN. When the realization hits that the current economic paradigm is an orchestrated destruction of currency purchasing power and savings, the move to gold will begin in earnest. The big boys will push the little guys out. You will be very sorry if you wait for that happen. We particularly caution pre-1933 gold coin buyers to get what you need now. If the euro turns out to be the best of a bad crowd, the exchange rate will push up the premium on these items which we buy in Europe. This will come when demand revs up. Bullion will vanish from the market. You'll be able to get pre-1933s but the price will be high.

I have only one important message to deliver with the foregoing as a preamble: Make your move now.

More some other time. . . . . .

sectorGold Derivatives -- Moving Towards Checkmate#9079112/05/02; 09:16:58

The question of central gold loans is answered authoritatively by Bank for International Settlements data [Triennial Survey] in this new Reg Howe article.

The number at the June 2001 is in excess of 16,000 tonnes.

When the World Gold Council and Gold Fields Mineral Services bandy about the 4,000 to 5,000 tonne figure we can now be sure that either they knew the truth or they didn't know the truth.

Either way, these august bodies, who draw their funding from gold producers and whose role it is to carefully inform the industry, have intentionally or unintentionally misled the world of gold producers, investors and all other potential gold investors.

An apology is in order.

There is much more about the implications and nature of the oddly low gold lease rates in the above article.

It does NOT look good for the manipulators.

HipplebeckTomorrow#9079212/05/02; 09:25:35

Gold is really going to run.
It's come clean weekend for Saddam.
After throwing such a big testosterone party in Kuwait, I think the war is inevitable. The US troops are lined up on the border and are beating their shields.
Bush pretty much has to find a reason to attack or he is looking at Saddam in charge and the sanctions off.
I don't think so.
Bush can't back down
ElGordo you are right, you can probably enact a derivative position to hedge that bet about a super superbowl. Something like, long shorterm oil, short longterm oil.
My simple derivative is gold in hand.

Gandalf the WhiteOk, SPOT !!! TIME to JUMP !!#9079312/05/02; 09:59:26

Tis HIGH NOON in NY and the time is right !

MKError correction:#9079412/05/02; 10:08:05

Belgian. . .I know you are probably scratching your head. .

I got this sentence wrong:

"Soon they will pay Japanese investors for the privilege of holding a currency which finance minister Shiokawa wishes to

It should read:

"Soon Japanese investors will pay the banks for the privilege of holding a currency which finance minister Shiokawa wishes to

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio#9079512/05/02; 10:08:17

Swiss Gold Francs

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call USAGOLD - Centennial for Arrangements

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Daily Specials Available for Immediate Delivery#9079612/05/02; 10:21:00

New selections with limited allotments daily! Call for availability and prices. First come, first served. A great way to pick up gifts or to add variety to your portfolio as you fill in the corners. Call and see what's on the menu today!


Jonathan ext.110
George ext.102

International orders welcome, too! (see link)

BelgianJoining Hipplebeck's rant....if I may ?#9079712/05/02; 10:33:01

*They* have been leading us all, further and further away, from the notion of "REAL WEALTH".
Real wealth to be defined as the absolute surplus with no other purpose of being a postponed consumption. Real wealth to be stored in Physical Gold, NOT to be considered as "money" / fiat / confetti.
Arabian oil doesn't really wants confetti in exchange for its tangible oil-wealth. The surplusses that oil creates out of its trade (barter) is supposed to be stored in the wealth of times : GOLD !

Derivatives and digits are even another step further, away from wealth, than it was with money/fiat/confetti.
And indeed Sir, Eurolanders, reputated for being savers, don't realise that an increasing amount of houses are already the property of banks and will remain so.
Declining IRs indicate that debts can only be repaid (sorry only serviced) with more debts with lower service-costs.

We often wonder why the POO reached a peak of 40$/barril, already in the 1970-ties. This happened when POG rose rapidly (43$ > 850$) and oil-surplusses couldn't be bartered for real wealth, Gold. As soon as POG declined and made available again...POO, calmed down.
Today, precious oil is again exchanged for very little of those same, over-valued, dollars/fiat/confetti, as in the seventies/eighties. And still there is (was) Gold available for exchange. Soon, Russian oil will copy this Gold-wealth-attitude of Arabian oil. Soon all those fiat-savers will face the harsh reality of their illusionary non-wealth.
Confetti-inflation as prélude to price-inflation not even compensated with an maigre IR-return. Zero rates=100% plunder.

No wonder that the non-owners of many enterprises have been and still are plundering their companies. Who wants to own those companies when it is not their value-creation that is important but only their capacity to make their prices fluctuate ad nauseum. We don't *value* an enterprise anymore...we just let it fly up and down in virtual prices.

CoBra(too)Wim D. and the Rate Cut -#9079812/05/02; 10:43:45

On the assumption that inflation is under control and will even go down next year, the ECB succumbed to the politicians will of Germany and France, which combined have more than 50% of the EU's GDP share. And that's the point -get the economy rolling again. Wrong medicine, as rate cuts may raise the spirits for a short time the overall economic climate will only improve by fundamental structural changes and after all the mal-investments of the past have been corrected - a long and painful process.

So much for independence! Though, probably one should view this move in light of the strains and stresses the global monetary system is experiencing. Japan is talking officially of lowering the external exchange rate to 150 or even 160 Yen/$, the $, being way overvalued vis a vis the basket of currencies and so the young euro can't stand back. Beggar your neighbor policies are again on the horizon - so much for globalization. China's response to these expected (de-)re-valuations will be crucial.

One thing seems a no-brainer - all fiat currencies will devalue against gold ... cb2

@CM - Not Harvard but the University of Agriculture (Forestry) in Vienna and some economics in winter semesters in Innsbruck, where I've graduated more as a skiing instructor...

@ Sector - This wrap up by Reg Howe on basis of the latest BIS figures is awesome ... and so are the charts by MB :-)

Cavan ManHey sector....#9079912/05/02; 10:53:01

A fella could make a nice living producing charts like that!
cyberbatSpot Spikes#9080012/05/02; 10:54:58

Spot has turned in to a raging mad dog in the closing minutes. Hopes he gets a mouthful of his opponents!!
Belgian@ Sir Kosares#9080112/05/02; 10:57:19

I didn't scratched my head because I understood immediately, the essence, of what you wanted to tell us about the japanese monetary (???) policy.

Duisenberg already expressed his desire to keep the euro at parity with the dollar for as long as 2004. Here, I really had to scratch whilst wondering how it is possible to make public such an intention so far away into the future (2004) ? But...has this something to do with the renewal of the WA in 2004 ? Funny co-incidence, isn't it ?

Especially that from the present up until 2004, the ME problem will surely have had its unfolding. Does Duisenberg knows more about the future POO than we do ? That would be VERY significant, indeed ! Thoughts anyone ?

CoBra(too)POG scraping the Sky #9080212/05/02; 11:04:27

- or the ceiling once again - up 2.30 at 324.50!

Nice go - guess Gandy wished for the spike and the hobbits usually get what they wish for and deserve.

Great call Gandy - Salutations cb2

a nation of oneirrelevant observation#9080312/05/02; 11:13:36

At times like this, one recalls to memory the words and music of the Air Force theme song.
a nation of oneRe: Belgian (12/05/02; 05:20:22MT - msg#: 90778)#9080412/05/02; 11:20:19

Your explanation seems to be consistent with a situation where a man hasn't got enough money to buy whiskey, so he sells all the food that he has.
AristotleEchoing Belgian 90797#9080512/05/02; 11:26:24


"*They* have been leading us all, further and further away, from the notion of "REAL WEALTH". Real wealth to be defined as the absolute surplus with no other purpose of being a postponed consumption. Real wealth to be stored in Physical Gold, NOT to be considered as "money" / fiat / confetti."

A continued blessing upon your house, good sir!!

Someday, someday... this message will finally get through to the western investment masses, but there will probably always be a small group of deaf and blind idealogues who will have none of it. I wonder where we stand today. If we took a poll right here among our friends at the forum, I wonder what the results would show.
QUESTION: Gold is...

a) property (real wealth)


b) money

A. Get you some. --- Aristotle

a nation of onebush's evidence#9080612/05/02; 11:26:38

Adults should not need to be reminded that fervor is not proof of evidence. That is, intensity in one's feelings -even to the point of conviction- does not constitute rightness.
PizzGold Shorts and Shallow Thinking#9080712/05/02; 11:32:12

Been listening to a lot of negative blabber regarding the strength in gold this week, most of it this morning.

Most of the air time has been given to those who have been negative on gold, and they are still defending their (short?) positions to the hilt. (the last time I checked the CNBC poll for best investment over next 12 months had gold leading with 44% of the vote)

IMHO they have totally underestimated Bush and are thinking at least one or two moves behind him or under him, depending upon perception.

The FED lowered rates to basically no avail.

Bond market topping.

Dollar can't go up, even with the EU cut.

The EU lowered rates this morning and the markets yawned and then headed down.

UAL did not get the loan guarantees. Trivial amount, but why not?

JPM down over 4% today.

Bottom line, I give Bush credit for giving the business and financial community the time and rope to try to bring the economy back thru every trick, slight of hand, bad data, and excuse they could think of - but it's just not working nor will it.

Bush better have an ace in his sleeve regarding Saddam, and I think he does, because the markets are telling me that war is very near and they are going to let the economy crash right along with the dollar, debt, and every weak corporation out there.

Our political cycle does not allow for the amount of time it will take for any type of orchestrated financial cleansing of problems of the magnitude we have. We're going to go down hard and fast financially with a war machine already reving the engines, tires spinning, and waiting for the brakes to be released.

Not invested in hard metal? All your eggs in the fiat/debt/stock/cash baskets?? Broaden your thinking, cause the financial cleanup is about to start . . . hard fast and down with PM's the only good insurance available.


steadyanswer to aristotle question#9080812/05/02; 11:34:07

c. both a and b my answer is both
PizzTwo jobs most wouldn't want to have right now#9080912/05/02; 11:43:35

The head of the agency that has guaranteed to Bush that Sadaam has WMD and knows EXACTLY where they are.

The poor guy that has guaranteed to Sadaam that the WMD cannot and will not be found.


CytekFrom CNBC - What the best investment right now- Poll results#9081012/05/02; 11:51:13


Total Votes: 4824
What do you think is the best place for your money for the next 12 months?
Stocks 33%

Bonds 6%

Gold 48%

Cash 13%

Votes tallied every 60 seconds.

a nation of onea third job that nobody would like to have#9081112/05/02; 11:51:59

Leading a nation that is out of ice cream, when the only thing anyone can think of is to attack somebody who has a lot of ice cream.
sectorChechen rebels phoned [Persian] Gulf during siege#9081212/05/02; 12:09:02,2763,854004,00.html

Moscow says theatre hostage takers were funded from Saudi Arabia

Nick Paton Walsh in Moscow
Thursday December 5, 2002
The Guardian

Russian security officials suspect that the Chechens who seized a Moscow theatre in October had wealthy Arab sponsors in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states and have sought Washington's support in finding the financiers.

Senior officials say they have traced a series of telephone calls from the gunmen to their "sponsors" in the Gulf.

During one call made to an unspecified Gulf state a financier asked for a video of scenes inside the theatre, and was told it could be made for a $1m fee.

"Several long telephone conversations were intercepted to Saudi Arabia, to the Emirates, and to Qatar.

"We can say for sure that the hostage-taking was financed from abroad, and the terrorists maintained permanent contact with their sponsors."

He added that the leader of the hostage-takers, Mosvar Barayev, and several of his fellow Chechens had planned to flee to the Gulf once the crisis was over.
Saudi denials of continuing financial support for Al Qaida ring false.

They get a Three-bagger. Our money for their oil and they get to blow us and the Russians up with their profits AND they get to blame Osama.

@CavenMan I'm a data guy. The charts tell its story. AND I'm available.

Pizza nation of one#9081312/05/02; 12:09:37

Agreed. And I for one am not as confident in the eventual outcome as most of my shallow thinking fellow countrymen. Lots of pain and grief coming, war or not, war will just get it over with a bit quicker IMO, and that's not a thought I'm comfortable about.

Five years ago, I would have never thought of holding physical gold and silver.

One year ago, when I started buying, I honestly thought I would probably never have to use it.

Since then I've doubled my original allocation allong with my mental odds that I might have to use it.

The world will definately not be the same place 5, 10, 15 years from now, and all I can say is sometimes good comes from the ashes of a fire.

Just wish we were collectively smart enough not to get ourselves in these positions. Total waste.. . .


sectorPoll Finds World Doubts U.S. Motives in Iraq#9081412/05/02; 12:30:19

Poll Finds World Doubts U.S. Motives in Iraq
Support for War on Terrorism Matched by Suspicions About Oil

By Richard Morin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, December 4, 2002; 3:04 PM

Suspicion about U.S. motives in Iraq and the broadly held perception that America ignores the interests of other nations in foreign policy disputes has tarnished the image of the United States around the world, according to a survey of public attitudes in 44 countries by The Pew Research Center for The People & The Press.

The poll also found broad support outside the Muslim world for American-led efforts to combat terrorism but an "equally strong global consensus that the United States disregards the views of others in carrying out its foreign policy," wrote Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center, who headed the Global Attitudes Project.

A separate follow-up survey conducted last month in the United States and in five allied nations revealed equally deep and conflicting views on Iraq. A majority of those interviewed in Great Britain, France, Germany and Russia agreed that Saddam Hussein represented a threat to stability in the Middle East and a danger to world peace.

But this consensus quickly collapses on other critical issues currently at play in the evolving confrontation with Iraq. Overwhelming majorities in France, Germany and Russia oppose the use of military force to end Saddam's rule. Even in Great Britain, America's staunchest ally on Iraq, opinion is sharply divided: fewer than half--47 percent--favor using force to oust Hussein while an equal proportion disagree.
"Going it alone" means the US crosses a boundary into "Rogue nation status" as Zibignew Bryzinski, former National Security Advisor, has said.

Damage to the idea of law will reverberate all across the globe and particularly within the already sharply divided [Electoral Blue vs. Red] US.

Sierra MadreCytek: thanks for the link to that CNBC poll!#9081512/05/02; 13:33:10

I went to the link you provided, and there it is, out of 4840 or so polled, 48% said gold was best at this time.

Beside it was an article by the "professional investor" like this shmoe Bernstein. They still don't get it, it's only stocks, bonds or cash for them. Gold is off the screen. I think they would rather think about orange juice futures.

The public is showing a lot more sense than the "professional" stock and bond pushers. It won't be long now.


davefingerThe poll#9081612/05/02; 14:01:42

I heard about the poll here, went and voted for gold, and the messages here indicate that others have done the same. As a result the numbers may be skewed due to the publicity it got on gold forums.

However, the good fact remains though that (hopefully) many people will see the poll and have a bit more interest in gold due to it's high scoring, regardless of why.

And maybe, just maybe, it'll send an extra shiver down the spine of someone in TPTB!

TownCrierMy guess is that President Duisenberg sleeps easier in euroland than Chairman Greenspan in dollarland#9081912/05/02; 14:45:21

Paris, Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- France will still stand by Jean- Claude Trichet as its candidate for the European Central Bank presidency if prosecutors delay his trial, Agence France Presse reported, citing unidentified government officials. ...Jacques Chirac's office declined to comment on the report.

Duisenberg said on Tuesday that he will only stay in his job to ensure a ``smooth transition'' for his successor and that ``in effect, I have only one wish: to go fishing.''

-----(text from url)------

With a firm foundation of gold you can sleep better than any of them. Call Centennial. Counting coins is far better than counting sheep.


Black BladeOil Jumps on Venezuela Ports Strike #9082012/05/02; 15:08:40;jsessionid=AM4LW15DHSGC2CRBAELCFEY?type=businessNews&storyID=1858471


LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped sharply on Thursday when a strike in Venezuela closed tanker terminals in the world's fifth largest exporter. U.S. crude futures rose 57 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $27.28. "Venezuelan exports are going to be disrupted with the ports closed," said Nauman Barakat, a trader at FIMAT International Banque. Shipping agents said Venezuela's main oil export terminals had stopped loading on Thursday morning, on the fourth day of a strike called by the opposition to force a referendum on the presidency of Hugo Chavez. The state oil company said it had cut processing rates at the world's largest oil refinery Amuay-Cardon, a major supplier of gasoline and heating oil to the United States, to just 15 percent. Several captains of the state-owned oil tanker fleet joined the action, and Chavez ordered the military to take control of vessels whose crews refused to operate. OPEC member Venezuela pumps three million barrels per day of crude oil, and supplies 13 percent of U.S. imports. The strike compounded market fears over supply security, already in a high state of alert over the confrontation between Iraq and the United States.

Black Blade: Petroleum prices could rise much further on low inventories and lower imports from sources outside of OPEC than predicted by industry analysts. This comes at a time especially critical considering the weakness in the global economy. "Interesting Times"

Belgian@ Ari : GOLD IS NOT money.....IT IS WEALTH !#9082112/05/02; 15:39:03

Life itself, love, friendship, peace and prosperity are certainly intrinsic "values" that are recognised by many people here around. All these values have prices fluctuating from zero to X.
Life can be halted for less than nothing, fake love and friendship can be bought at many different rates and temporary peace and prosperity can be bribed. The recognised intrinsic values of the aboves are eternal and it are only the prices associated with it, that come and go and will always keep on fluctuating ad random.

We know the *price* of each and every currency in exchange rate or purchasing power. But since no currency has any intrinsic *value*...they all do depreciate permanently and relentlessly. Yesterday the rent for the currency costed 10%...and today you get it for almost zero %.

This is exactly what the different usagold-mentors have been teaching me. Value has no price ! It is intrinsic worth that defines you and your descendants as being rich for or temporary smart. Value-investors do always grow...price gamblers come and go with, temporary, much succes or complete failure for ever.

Gold, has up until now been "PRICED" and Not "VALUED" !

Oxygen, water, food do have many prices and it is when these essentials become scarce, that their intrinsic worth starts to be "valued" and become priceless.
The past paper-plays will slowly evaporate and gradually, intrinsic values will be recognised once again. Yes, Ari...also by us, Westerners ! Needless to worry as to where we stand in this process, to date. W're evolving to it at increasing speed. The list of the reasons "WHY" is growing daily and this happens, worldwide.

A "sudden" ,global, panic is un-avoidable. Time will come that one will be allowed to be a *doomer*. Time will come that Gold-Giants are fashionable and to be imitated, even without understanding about the distinction between price and value. The 1971 > 1980 experience in multiple.
"Abandon the paper-ship", cries...are already heard in the distance. Soon it will be no matter of declining confidence anymore but the sharp odor of panic will spread rapidly.

Today my banker said that ALL BUSINESS WAS DEATH ! Waw...what an outcry ! This 0,5% rate cut is shocking to all savers and they are speechless ! The confetti-lovers never worried about rising rates together with inflala. They felt safe with the fake compensation and the price-rise of their tangibles (houses). Today it is different.

The low IRs has lured a lot of surplus savings out of their bank-accounts, into more housing, as an illusionary safe heaven. A coming, gigantic, economic contraction, will make these flight-investments totally illiquid even through the hyper-inflation. Commercial property will suffer the most.

Yes, "THEY" are working on all these negativs as to set things back on the growth-rails. We keep on pretending that we know why it will fail up until the contrary is proven.

But the fact that Gold has been associated with money for so long and so evidence to me that there exists a major plan to blow up this old fashioned strategy and a new start is on the boil. This generation never knew that a Gold-Standard ever existed and will soon discover AND WELLCOME, a remake of it, closer to perfection. FREE GOLD !
You can impossibly expect that those newcomers get enthousiast about the yellow precious, because of sheer ignorance and dis-information. Don't blame them. The "value" of things must and will be discovered in times of *global* distress. Trust those Giants that will initiate the whole learning process.

Gold is one's ultimate wealth and all the rest is a measure of how smart you are in multiplying paper. Each one has to make his choice as to find what suits him/her, best.
Quantitative price-pursuit or qualitative value accumulation ? Nice evening to all.

goldquestBush Trying to Light Christmas Tree#9082212/05/02; 16:04:02

Matches are wet!
AristotleBelgian-- Amen, brother!#9082312/05/02; 16:33:33

"GOLD IS NOT money.....IT IS WEALTH !"

I especially liked your comment on evidence "that there exists a major plan to blow up this old fashioned strategy and a new start is on the boil. ...closer to perfection. FREE GOLD !"

I think you hit the nail right on the head about the stubborn perceptions I alluded to out there when you said, "...because of sheer ignorance and dis-information. Don't blame them. The "value" of things must and will be discovered in times of *global* distress."

That's where you got right to the heart of addressing my incredulous observations that some people, in spite of all careful explanation, simply refuse to see their way past the worn out "Gold is money" fallacy. I think they like the *idea* of money being Gold, but for some reason they just can't come to understand that Gold cannot be both *tangible* AND *money* at the same time. Because, folks, like it or not *money* is intangible! That's why our intangible system of money has come to commonly pass by the unique name "money" instead of "property."

How many people here have ever been out drinking with their buddies, and heard one of them nudge another one after looking into his wallet to pay for a round of pints, "Pssst... how much property do you have? I'm running low."?

Of course nobody's ever heard that said. The very thought is ridiculous.

I suppose I could say more, but then I'd just be singing the same old tune, second verse.

Gold. Get you some (=PROPTERTY=WEALTH). --- Ari

spot lightHow gold producers can make the gold price rise.#9082412/05/02; 16:35:43

gold disscussion group, kitco

An idea for how gold producers can make the gold price rise:

The following announcement is made: "A gold pool has been formed by a consortium of the world's
largest gold producers. X amount of gold will be offered at a discount to the spot price the day before. This offer is for central banks
exclusively. All sales will be confidential."
This could result in an immediate rise in the price of gold long before the first sale. The price rise would instantly make up for more than the discounted price. Whatever sales occur, the gold would never reach the market. This would add to the shortage of gold available. Any central bank that had the slightest intention of buying, would not want to risk
being left out while the gold price could go through the roof. The large short players in the market would have to drop their shorts and be fully exposed. Their balance sheets would reveal all.
This would be poetic justice for what the central banks have been doing. The central banks would like to complain, "This is monopolistic". "This is unfair". "This is unjust". "This is unlawful" But they will end up muttering to themselves, "This
is awful". cn.

BoilermakerBelgian msg#: 90821#9082512/05/02; 16:47:01

Excellent observations as we always expect from you. The masses will learn a very expensive lesson that could have been had for some time (no cost) at our forum.


spot lightHow gold producers can make the price rise#9082612/05/02; 17:20:10

spot light (12/05/02; 16:35:43MT - msg#: 90824)
How gold producers can make the gold price rise.
gold disscussion group, kitco
An idea for how gold producers can make the gold price rise:

The following announcement is made: "A gold pool has been formed by a consortium of the world's
largest gold producers. X amount of gold will be offered at a discount to the spot price the day before.
This offer is for central banks
exclusively. All sales will be confidential."
This could result in an immediate rise in the price of gold long before the first sale. The price rise would
instantly make up for more than the discounted price. Whatever sales occur, the gold would never
reach the market. This would add to the shortage of gold available. Any central bank that had the
slightest intention of buying, would not want to risk
being left out while the gold price could go through the roof. The large short players in the market would
have to drop their shorts and be fully exposed. Their balance sheets would reveal all.
This would be poetic justice for what the central banks have been doing. The central banks would like
to complain, "This is monopolistic". "This is unfair". "This is unjust". "This is unlawful" But they will end up
muttering to themselves, "This
is awful". cn.

Gandalf the WhiteWELCOME Sir Spot Light - Don't think I've seen your LIGHT here before!!!#9082712/05/02; 18:19:55

Let me think on your post !

Gandalf the WhiteWAY ta go SPOT !!! SIC 'em !!!#9082812/05/02; 18:36:57

Where is SPIKE when you need him ?
Looks like it is nearing PARTY TIME !!
HELLO, KING A III !! Does it look like "LIGHTNING IN THE NIGHT" ? I hear thunder !

Paper AvalanchePOG at this juncture#9082912/05/02; 19:00:34

If recent history is any indicator of short term price swings when POG approaches $325, then I see only two probable outcomes at the close tomorrow:

POG at $319

POG at $336

$325 is the launch point.

Hang on.

The paper avalanche has just begun.

Paper AvalancheThe chicken or the egg#9083012/05/02; 19:02:40

Is gold going up because we are going to war?


Are we going to war because gold is going up?


BelgianWar-times and Gold.....#9083112/05/02; 19:09:32

Let us go back to 1990 when a war was raging in the hart of the ME. The price of Gold remained absolutely un-emotional whilst oil wells were on fire. The world's reserves of cheap and valuable oil going up in flames. Remember our precious Trailguide, teaching us about this unbelievable event.
Gold pricing remained unmoved as being not existant and totally ignored .Wasn't that extra-ordinarry ?

What was behind this in-explicable phenomenon ? Was it simply because everybody forgot or ignored about Gold being related with oil ? Or wasn't there enough confetti around to organise another rally into the precious, following the 10 year existing cyclical pattern ? No, dearest fellow Goldknights...Gold already had dissociated itself from money and was on the design table of *the* new concept- architects located in the ivory tower of Bazel (BIS)!

Let us see all together how Gold will behave when the second round in the Gulf-affair, evolves. We will certainly gather much more evidence on the deep *behinds* of the coming Gold-affair. Step by step.

Ari : I've come to the point that one can take (steal) my confetti, one way or the other, but DON'T TOUCH MY COINS...MY PRECIOUS HUMBLE WEALTH !

Spot light : Do you remember the Japanese Jipangu Gold investor ? Do you remember Harmony Gold-mining, flying tons of Gold to China ? Also check out how Gold exploration within China and Russia is increasing. The existing goldminers can't offer more Gold to service CB's demand...3.000 tonnes of underground gold have already been sold ! And this from their richest ores. These tremendous forward sales NEVER happened before ! Evidence that there is something BIG going on with Gold despite all the public nonsense pulled up as a smokescreen. Gold-mine-bugs should question this with much more critical stance for their own sake. Arabian oil never, ever invested in goldmines !

If the dollar were absolutely sure that it is not facing its lifetime end...the price of Gold would have been much higher already as to confirm/indicate only "temporary" weakness.... good for another round of cyclical dollar weakness and higher price of Gold. Gold and the dollar would play another round of cat and mouse game. But this isn't happening and we must all percept this as the "Gold is out" mantra ! What a farce. POG rising a ridicule 20% of its 22 years all time low ! Absolutely meaningless in price from whatever standpoint...but extremely meaningfull for what's behind it.

The present unknown to me is the enormous Euroland expansion
taking place in 2004/2005. Will this have an impact on the gold/euro-management and if ?

More euro means more Gold needed for having all the joiners participating into the reserve-concept. Will the existing amount of Gold be re-distributed or does Euroland needs more physical ? Will have to wait and see.

Yes, Randy, there are tensions between Germany and France. But soon they will come out with a joint statement, initiated by BeNeLux.
For the time being we must urgently decide on Turkey as of pivotal importance to the ME and Euroland relations. An important defilé of VIPS is heading off and on in that region. To dollarise or eurise...that's the question ?

JoepmbullInflation talk on CNBC#9083212/05/02; 19:21:29

John Bollinger today on CNBC had a great segment. Discussed the exploding money supply and said inflation coming, not deflation. Methinks the CNBC investment poll along with Bollinger's comments adds to the public awareness of gold and gold stocks. Now if we can get them to admit that gold mutual funds were the best performing mutual fund sector over the last year and over the last 3 years, great for gold stocks and gold funds.
Chris PowellHowe/Bolser report on central banks' gold shorts is explosive#9083312/05/02; 19:40:55

The new GATA report by Reg Howe and Mike
Bolser about the central banks' short position
in gold is shaking the investment world:

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Golden BearThe Long Bond Mystery....#9083412/05/02; 19:54:02

"...I have a deep rooted suspicion, that in the mid nineties, a mechanism was established, probably on advice of Rubin, with the aim to underpin the value of the US government bonds by interfering directly in the bond market and which action would simultaneously create unlimited liquidity.

At the same time as there must have been a secret mechanism put into place by the ESF, the Treasury and the FED to depress the gold price in the mid nineties, a special off-balance sheet fund looks likely to have been created by the FED, with the purpose to stabilize and to control fluctuations of the treasury bonds, through a gradual monetization of the long bond, on the home market....

....Armed with such fund, the FED would be able to keep up, and a strong dollar, and a strong bond and still have plenty of liquidity left for other manipulations like the stock market or the gold market, till the time would come, that either people would realize what is happening, or the FED on the home market would run out of bonds to redeem, or the political pressure for a weaker dollar would become so strong that the FED would have to abandon the undercover action.

The amazing derivative positions held by JP Morgan and the Citigroup could thus be explained by that these banks must have been informed about such a secret bond stabilization fund, if existent. They might even have initiated the scheme themselves. And they would not have needed any assurances from the FED to embark on their trillion dollar derivative adventures with their knowledge of the fund!

In all probability they might even work in tight cooperation with the FED and have spun their extensive web of interest and exchange rate derivatives around the very bond stabilization fund as an additional outer defense line to protect the US bond and dollar..."

GB: Very interesting article indeed!

LeighPlane Crash#9083512/05/02; 20:16:56

Small aircraft crashes into Federal Reserve Bank Building in Miami. See Drudge Report for link.
spot lightreply to belgian#9083612/05/02; 20:21:22

If harmony gold shipped it's entire yearly production to a central bank,it would amount to less than $1.5 bill.
Think of the fiat dollars the central banks are holding vs. available gold. The US has 261 million oz. valued at about $85 bill. Bill Gates could handle that all by himself. Think of central bank Dollar assets held in the hundreds of billions while the comex gold is valued in the millions. If I were a central bank president in An Asian Country and I knew I could unload my depreciating dollars secretly, I think I would unload a good share just to be safe.

mikalGold gleams in peace or war#9083712/05/02; 21:00:12

Dubai: Thursday, December 05, 2002
Gulf News says: A different agenda
Baghdad has decided to submit its weapons declaration a day in advance. In doing so its leadership has again demonstrated its willingness to toe the line laid down by the United Nations. It also highlights the effectiveness of multilateralism as opposed to the reaction that unilateral action has evoked in the past.
United States President George W. Bush has constantly tried to shift the goalposts even as inspections of weapon sites inside Iraq are ongoing. Washington, having failed to have its way and bomb the integrity of Iraq into oblivion, has been forced to bow to international law and allow diplomacy to take its course. If such a course absolves the Iraqis of harbouring weapons of mass destruction, then so be it.
The Bush administration stand that if this is the case, Iraq will have to disarm all the same, reeks of others' agendas.
It brings to mind the denial of weapons for the Bosnian Muslims while the Serbs were allowed full access to international suppliers. The result was ethnic cleansing.
Such a policy is being actively engaged in by Israel against the Palestinians. It is evident that this is now to be extended to other potential threats against Israel.

Black BladeCivil War Breaks Out On Wall Street - Farfel#9083812/05/02; 21:14:26


The first shot was fired the other day in a courtroom by JP Morgan, whereby that bullion bank giant sued several major insurance companies for payment of $1 billion to cover its losses in dealings with the now infamous corporate fraudster, Enron. Since the insurance companies have been reliable Establishment allies in the past with respect to most bullion bank concerns, it is an understatement to note that this break in the alliance will likely lead to a deterioration of the cohesion amongst ALL Wall Street's Establishment players.

What is most remarkable (if not appalling) about the outbreak of hostilities is this: bullion bank JP Morgan is trying to defend the merits of circular loans by which monetary transactions for Enron's oil & gas were entirely specious since the commodities never actually changed hands.

Now if a group of individuals were to set up various bank accounts today at JP Morgan subsidiary, Chase Manhattan, then proceed to run transactions on a circular basis through those various accounts, there is little doubt that Chase Manhattan would describe such an arrangement as an illegal form of cheque kiting....and there is also little doubt that JP Morgan would prosecute the perpetrators of such circular cheque kiting arrangements to the fullest extent of the law.

Yet for some reason, JP Morgan seems to think the same laws that apply to such felonies in the banking sector do not apply to itself where phony transactions in commodities are concerned.

Black Blade: All right Farfel. Pretty good article - Go get em’ boy!

Black BladeAsian Markets Start Off In The Red#9083912/05/02; 21:18:38

Asian markets are going negative at the start on the back of Wall Street's losses.

- Black Blade

Gandalf the WhiteNote to Sir Spot light's message ............#9084012/05/02; 21:20:35

spot light (12/05/02; 20:21:22MT - msg#: 90836)
reply to belgian
If harmony gold shipped it's entire yearly production to a central bank,it would amount to less than $1.5 bill.
Think of the fiat dollars the central banks are holding vs. available gold. The US has 261 million oz. valued at about $85 bill.
Looks as if you are using one of the European counting methods -- IN THE USA in American counting methods -- that should be TRILLIONS !!

CalidorHiaku Today, Kabuki Tomorrow#9084112/05/02; 21:27:56

From cosmic expanse
In primordial epoch
Sprang silver and gold

Sometime back on BBC news, they televised a science piece about the formulation of our sun and solar system. Due to their chemical properties, gold and silver could have only been formed by the tremendous energy and matter given off by a neutron star during that process. Guess that makes our gold coins a wee bit older that the mint date.

Au - get you some.

Black BladeMarket Wrap Up – Puplava#9084212/05/02; 21:35:29


So what is the bottom line?

It is inflate or die. The Fed will intervene in all of the financial markets, monetizing whatever it thinks is necessary. They will buy stocks, bonds, gold mines, currencies, or foreign bonds -- whatever they think the financial recipe requires. For those who live under the delusion that we operate under free market conditions, a study of Fed research papers, speeches and market action should dispel any of these delusions.

The question is will this work? In order for Fed credit and monetary stimulus to work, you need a willing lender and a willing borrower. So far we still have both. Banks may be unwilling to lend to businesses, but they are more than willing to lend to consumers, especially when it comes to housing. We also continue have a consumer who is willing to go deeper into debt to buy bigger homes or tap into their home equity to fund consumption. The Grand Experiment continues. I would suggest buying gold and silver while you can in order to protect yourself from the alchemists at the Fed, just in case they create another monetary Frankenstein.

Black Blade: After reading some recent Fed governors speeches this becomes obvious. Notice how as if on cue they all spread out in the last couple of weeks to down play deflation threats and discuss that they are omnipotent when it comes to "saving" the economy by firing up the printing presses.

mikal@Calidor#9084312/05/02; 21:50:22

That's correct, gold and silver were formed in that manner, in temperatures that cannot be achieved by any means on earth. Small wonder that gold is not oxidized in air, nor dissolved by alkalis or pure acids. Au and Ag are soft, lustrous, ductile, malleable, good conductors of electricity(silver is #1, copper #2 & gold #3), with unique and virtually unlimited economic, industrial and medical importance.
-Best regards

Gandalf the WhiteWOWSERS !! The SIZE of the ASK on GC3G is HUGE !!#9084412/05/02; 22:05:09

The LINE IN THE SAND is at $325.9 !!!!!!!!!!!
GC3G is the new ACTIVE contract on the COMEX and SOMEONE does not want a NEW HIGH of $326.0 to be seen tonight !
BITE 'em SPOT !!!

mikalUS swiss cheese borders #9084512/05/02; 22:53:59

December 5, 2002
INS lacks proper checks on aliens
By Jerry Seper THE WASHINGTON TIMES- Excerpts:
Millions of illegal aliens armed with bogus documents enter the United States each year through the nation's 300 ports of entry because of inadequate screening methods by federal immigration officials at the country's airports and border checkpoints. Commissioned by the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service, the study concluded that between 2.95 million and 5.45 million illegal aliens cross undetected every year into the country through guarded ports of entry — with about one in every nine illegal aliens being detained.
The total does not include an estimated 3 million to 5 million illegal aliens who annually cross into the United States through unguarded areas along the border.....
The study said INS inspectors typically spent "a minute or two" examining passports, visas or border-crossing cards before granting admission to a noncitizen traveler during an initial review process. It said random backup checks by the agency to evaluate the inspectors' accuracy showed that the inspectors had a "very low" rate of success.....
Although the study made no specific recommendations, Mr. Morrel-Samuels said INS personnel have to be moved from inspection lanes to desks where they can have immediate access to computers with databases to check those people seeking to enter the United States. He said his secondary inspections found several people with forged documents and criminal records.
"Today's problems and today's solutions call for more modern methods," he said. "The decision to allow someone entry into the United States should not be a judgment made in a minute or two and based largely on intuition.".....
Mr. Bergeron said the study had been shared with some news outlets, although he did not elaborate.
But Mr. Morrel-Samuels, president of Employee Motivation & Performance Assessment Inc., said the study found its way only into an obscure trade journal and was never released to other news outlets despite several requests he made of the agency to do so. He said, however, that the INS should not have been "embarrassed" by the findings, because "immigration control has never been a high priority and INS has never had the necessary resources to do the job."
David Ray, spokesman for the Federation of American Immigration Reform, said the group obtained a copy of the study after being told by Mr. Morrel-Samuels of its "shocking findings." He said the INS had refused to make the document public....."The report highlights the need for strong entry controls and real interior enforcement so that illegal aliens in the United States can be found and deported"......complete story at link

mikalCorrection to excerpt below#9084612/05/02; 23:00:38

The first sentence of the excerpt should conclude with: ....airports and border checkpoints, a little publicized study says.
CalidorGulf News says: A different agenda #9084712/05/02; 23:11:10

-Snippit- United States President George W. Bush has constantly tried to shift the goalposts even as inspections of weapon sites inside Iraq are ongoing. Washington, having failed to have its way and bomb the integrity of Iraq into oblivion, has been forced to bow to international law and allow diplomacy to take its course. If such a course absolves the Iraqis of harbouring weapons of mass destruction, then so be it.

Calidore: Considering where this article comes from, I'm not surprised at it's slant. I'm positive that "Dubya" has the proverbial smoking gun as evidence. It will be a matter of whether one (especially in the international community) chooses to believe it. No doubt in my formerly military mind that SH has some WMD. He probably has BW but the problem with biological is weaponizing it. When it's delivered, the explosion doesn't vaporize the bad things he's trying to drop on people. He probably retains agent seed stocks, growth media, and production equip to keep trying.

Chem weapons - Now if JPM can hide massive derivitives, I'm sure SH can hide a few tons of CW. Mostly in artillery munitions. "The U.S. government believes that if inspections and monitoring were to cease, Iraq could resume production of mustard agent in weeks, sarin within months, and VX in 2-3 years." (The Wash. Institute for Near East Policy). I don't think that SH has given his scientists and chemists vacations or told them to find other jobs. Remember the subway attack in Tokyo a few years back in which Sarin was used? It only took a small group of terrorists to pull that one off.

The UN Security Council allowed Iraq to have radioactive isotopes for medical, agricultural, and industrial purposes. these are the raw materials used to produce radiological weapons.

For delivery vehicles he's got TBMs: Scud-Bs, Al-Husayns, Al-Abbas, and probably a few other variants.

I can't argue the point of cheap oil as being a factor - it wouldn't surprise me at all. Makes it harder to go places without it though. Especially here in DC, rush hours, Sunday afternoon, and most times. But there's a large volume of traffic in most cities. "Nobody walks in LA" and most other places.

More gold please! 8^)

ElGordoMaracaibo channel blocked#9084812/6/02; 00:17:32

Caracas, Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, facing a rebellion from the nation's merchant marine, called on the Organization of American States to mediate a conflict that threatens to choke shipments from the fifth-largest oil exporter.

OAS Secretary General Cesar Gaviria said late yesterday he would try to restart negotiations between the government and opposition, which is seeking Chavez's resignation. Talks brokered by Gaviria over the past month were suspended Dec. 1, a day before a nationwide strike began.

``The country has become ungovernable,'' said Vitali Meschoulam, an analyst with Eurasia Group, a political risk research company in New York. ``That is something Chavez has to recognize.''

The oil workers' success in disrupting an industry that pays for 40 percent of the government budget gives the opposition new strength, analysts said. Chavez never carried through on a threat yesterday to send in naval commandos to overtake at least three tankers that dropped anchor off the Lake Maracaibo shipping channel used to transport about half of Venezuela's oil output, and others the blocked the entrance to the nation's largest refinery.
More gold please! 8^)

spot lightreply to Gandalf the white#9084912/6/02; 00:19:16

Gandalf the White (12/05/02; 21:20:35MT - msg#: 90840)
Note to Sir Spot light's message ............
spot light (12/05/02; 20:21:22MT - msg#: 90836)
reply to belgian
If harmony gold shipped it's entire yearly production to a central bank,it would amount to less than $1.5
Think of the fiat dollars the central banks are holding vs. available gold. The US has 261 million oz.
valued at about $85 bill.
Looks as if you are using one of the European counting methods -- IN THE USA in American counting
methods -- that should be TRILLIONS !!
I do not understand your statement.
My math is correct. Please explain yourself.

otish mountain Haiku#9085012/6/02; 00:24:51

enduring thru time,
history proves without doubt,
Gold, immaculate.

Gandalf the WhiteApologies to Sir Spot Light !#9085112/6/02; 00:28:57

SORRY ! I was totally incorrect in my multiplacation !!
You were correct in your calculation, BUT I do think that Bill does not have the CASH to cover it, only MSFT paper valuation. I shall ask him !!

Sierra MadreSo what if S.H. has weapons of "mass destruction"?#9085212/6/02; 00:28:58

Is the rest of the world supposed to have nothing more lethal than pea-shooters?

The US has granted itself anointed status as the world's arbiter with regard to who is to have WMDs - namely, only those countries willing to "kowtow", as the Chinese termed kissing the ground before the Emperor.

I have an otherwise excellent American friend, who recently had the audacity to actually tell me that the U.S. were entitled to possess WMDs because of the "superior moral quality of the U.S." I had to laugh, what else can you do with such conceit? There are a lot of people out there who share the same delusion of their rectitude and high standing before God. I guess one can trace back these attitudes to the Puritans, who thought so highly of themselves.

The ship is cracking up so fast that it is urgent to get a war started at all costs, to shift the attention of the people to an exterior objective.


ElGordoNatural Gas storage falling fast#9085312/6/02; 00:31:58

Houston, Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Charlie Sanchez, an energy- markets manager for consultancy Gelber & Associates, comments on U.S. natural-gas inventories.

``Our rates are declining pretty quickly. Surprisingly, there's been a minor reaction to it in the market,'' Sanchez said. ``Question marks are lingering'' over the rate at which gas is being withdrawn from storage, and there could be ``a delayed reaction over the next couple of days.''

``Ninety-one (billion cubic feet) is quite a lot to withdraw. It's at the high end of what we withdraw at the end of a week in an extreme situation. Next week will be a large withdrawal as well.''

Natural-gas prices should ``continue up,'' Sanchez said. ``That seems both technically and fundamentally what's happening. We had a pretty bearish facade there for a couple of weeks, when we were testing prices in the upper $3 range. But since we've escalated over the $4 mark and the weather has taken hold in its strongest sense, we're a lot more threatened than we were before.''

``We still have to deal with the immediate implications of the strong demand.''

Gas storage: -91 Bcf to 2956 Bcf. Expectations: -81 Bcf according to a Bloomberg survey.

Stocks are 298 Bcf less than last year at this time and 25 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,931 Bcf.
Maybe its all those new gas fired power plants? duh
More gold please! 8^)

Sierra MadreElGordo: what is going on in Venezuela....#9085412/6/02; 00:37:18

is nothing else than US warfare against Chavez, because he is for a policy which does not grant everything the U.S. wishes.

So, besides the impending war on Iraq, there is this very real US/Venezuela war going on, pursued by other means, against a regime that wants to maintain the autonomy of Venezuela and look out for the interests of its people.

You don't have to have a shooting war to gain your objectives; if you can buy off your enemy's supporters with piles of dollars, and whittle his support down by the same means - why use guns?


Black BladeNatGas Inventory Chart#9085512/6/02; 00:56:03

This year's inventories have been built up over a mild winter and cool summer this year along with a crippling recession. The last storm to sweep through the US this week was called a "25 year storm". Though not unprecedented, it is unusual. It is expected by many experts that this winter will be quite harsh as it is an El Ni--o year. The weather is expected to be cooler with temperatures below normal with several storms in the north, east and southeast. Add to this mix very low drill rig counts and very little additional reserves developed to replace draw-downs in inventory, current production in decline and falling fast, new NG fired power plants, aging and decrepit infrastructure, no new financing from Wall Street for new development in the wake of the Enron scandal, environmental and regulatory restrictions, low prices, few experienced industry professionals left in the business and fewer coming out of educational institutions, public apathy and misconceptions about energy, etc. In short a new energy crisis is coming that will continue for several years leading to economic collapse. As always - get prepared and look out for "number one".

- Black Blade

Black Blade9th Circuit: Gun Ownership Not a Personal Right#9085612/6/02; 01:20:05


The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Thursday ruled that there is no individual right to gun possession, holding that only state-run militias have a constitutional right to bear arms. Weaving together historical arcana, legal opinions both obscure and well-known, and scores of scholarly articles, the court issued a 69-page magnum opus interpreting the 27 words of the Second Amendment in a way that contradicts a recent federal appellate court decision and the opinion of the attorney general of the United States. "The debates of the founding era demonstrate that the second of the first 10 amendments to the Constitution was included in order to preserve the efficacy of the state militias for the people's defense -- not to ensure an individual right to possess weapons," Judge Stephen Reinhardt wrote.

Black Blade: The 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals has never believed in the US Constitution before so why start now. Judge Reinhardt was the judge who recently wrote the opinion that the Pledge of Allegiance is unconstitutional. The US Supreme Court has repeatedly overturned his lunatic decisions in the past so I would not be surprised that this one too is overturned if it goes before the Court. These judges (The Peoples Republik of Kalifornia no less) are "activist" judges who tend to legislate from the bench – thus some very bizarre laws get on the books.

ElGordoOla Sierra#9085712/6/02; 01:26:58

Que pasa hombre? Chavez means well but he has alienated the
middle class with his policies. He is bankrupting the country.
Hopefully it doesn't turn into a civil war like Columbia.

I'd rather have Tio Sam running the world than Saddam, Hitler,
or Stalin. The world would be in much worse shape under the
Nazis or Commies. Not to mention the PRI in Mexico, as you
well know. I still can't get over Saddam blowing up all those
oil wells for spite. It was one of the worst deliberate man made
disasters in history. The pollution was felt even in SE Asia.
He is a dangerous nut case.

Have you heard about Lula and his new ideas? He is travelling
around SA trying to create a foundation for a Latam trade bloc
with one currency. Sounds interesting. With all the Gold and
Silver in SA they could use PMs to back the new currency!

Mas oro por favor! 8^)

Black BladeUS retailers brace for a tough holiday#9085812/6/02; 01:33:04


The echoes of ringing cash registers over the Thanksgiving weekend had barely died away before reality set in on Thursday: this holiday season is still going to be tough.
US retailers' sales figures for November were almost universally disappointing - except for Gap, which continued to show signs of a turnround, albeit against weak figures last year.

The heavy promotions and discounting by retailers over the past weekend seem to have succeeded in getting shoppers to part with some of their money. But discounts hurt profit margins. And shoppers were very savvy in hunting out bargains, judging by anecdotal evidence of, for example, the numbers prepared to rise at dawn to pursue "early-bird specials" on offer to the first visitors to stores. For retailers to have a good Christmas, they need shoppers not just to open their wallets, but to be prepared to buy a bigger quantity of more items at full price.

Black Blade: The big question is how much of these holiday sales can be translated into "profits"? It looks "grim" as retailers are having a tough time getting tapped out consumers to pony up more cash from over stretched credit cards. Sounds like a big hang over is coming in January.

Black BladeOil Prices Climb#9085912/6/02; 01:48:42


SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed on Friday as Venezuela prepared to notify some customers it would not be able to meet commitments for crude and refined product deliveries due to a four-day general strike against President Hugo Chavez. A board member at state oil firm Petroleos de Venezuela told Reuters on Thursday that the company was preparing to send out "force majeure" notices to clients on Friday, meaning it would not be able to meet orders due to reasons beyond its control. The four-day-old strike has severely disrupted refining and shipping operations in the world's fifth-biggest oil exporter and the country's daily crude production of three million barrels was expected to begin declining in the next day or so. Thurtell said the market would also be watching for comments from Iraq or the United States, with Sunday's deadline looming for Baghdad to submit a detailed report of its weapons programs.

Black Blade: Looks like El Presidente has a lot on his hands these days. Also comes word that tanker crews have joined the strike as well. That's the price that the US will have to pay for not reducing energy dependence on foreign resources. Now we can look forward to "force majeure" eh? "Interesting Times"

Black BladeCessna to Lay Off 1,500 Workers#9086012/6/02; 02:00:04

Cessna Aircraft to Lay Off 1,500 Workers Due to Continuing Aerospace Industry Slump


WICHITA, Kan. (AP) -- Cessna Aircraft Co. said Thursday it will cut 1,500 jobs early next year because the aerospace industry has failed to rebound following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. All of the layoffs will be at Cessna's Wichita, Kan. facility, which employs about 10,000 people, company spokeswoman Marilyn Richwine said.

Black Blade: Cessna does its part to add to the growing "Bone Pile". There are 10,000 nervous Christmas shoppers in Wichita now.

Black BladeHumana to Cut 2,300 Jobs#9086112/6/02; 02:12:19


CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. health insurer Humana Inc. (NYSE:HUM) said on Thursday it will cut 2,300 jobs -- about 17 percent of its work force -- by the end of 2003 as it sheds positions that do not generate new business.

Black Blade: Ditto Humana – 2300 off to the "Bone Pile".

AbsoluteXBreakOut Time#9086212/6/02; 02:41:39

$343 may delay the up movement, but main short term target is the trend which is at this time $370...
TopazBonds'n Gold.#9086312/6/02; 02:46:15

Just returned home from a 3200Km, 5 day adventure to view the Total Eclipse in the Aussie outback - absolutely brilliant! I'm now a confirmed "clippie".
So, has this Gold move got legs?
If the Bond yields move strongly south next week and get down to 4.6% (long) you can kiss the Gold move good-bye BUT, a new trading range may be being established (above $340) with little or no effect on the Yields.
The $290 Maginot Line you'll recall was expected to bring chaos to the Gold markets...and it didn't, so I can't see from here, why a strong move through $330 will.
Let's see.

Belgian@ Brother PA who's handle does say it all....#9086412/6/02; 03:50:03

Your *The chicken or the egg* question on Gold / Oil / wars.
Wars on Gold and oil already raged for 7 decades now :
- Americans had their Gold "confiscated" and weren't allowed to have any bullion-property as to store their wealth, for 40 long years in a row.
- The gold-standard with a fixed goldprice against proliferating confetti was another form of official confiscation.
- In the past 20 years Gold has been suffocated with the paperization war.

Worthless Confetti was never confiscated but always taxed, devalued, debased, depreciated. Only real wealth and property was worth confiscating.

The same story for oil. More specifically, Arabian oil as fervent Gold-Lover. Study the whole ME-history, the state of Israel, the 1970-period, Gulf war I and II .

Only but wars for and against oil and Gold.

The one and only winner, SO FAR, has always been "the dollar", exclusively.

First we had the cripple gold-standard, then the shaky oil- standard and now the paper dollar-standard, expiring.
So Sir, what do you think is next...?
More War to defend the present state of affairs and to prevent the coming NEW standard, concepted in a FREE PHYSICAL GOLD MARKET !

Look at the expansion of bullion-trade on the DMCC (Dubai metals and commodities centre) as a precursor to this Free Market in Physical Gold. Look at China that is not planning to connect all chinese on the net...but makes it possible for all chinese to store their wealth in Gold-Property !


The free chicken with the golden eggs is born. Smile please.

silvercollectorHeadline news....#9086512/06/02; 04:56:24

this morning says, "US says it has solid proof that Iraq has WMD".

Translation: WAR

Black BladeGold Punching Higher#9086612/06/02; 05:11:58

It appears that Funds are buying gold ahead of the weekend and the Iraqi deadline to come clean. Shorts were caught flat-footed and a series of short-covering events ensued in spite of some muted pressure by banks in the late going. No one seems to be talking yet so I will call around today and see if I can find anything out. Suffice it to say professional money is flowing toward gold for now because simply put - no one wants to be short ahead of uncertain events. Also, the Bush administration announced that they have "irrefutable evidence" that Iraq has "weapons of mass destruction". This may be a situation of the US government laying a trap for Saddam when he submits his documentation on WMD and weapons programs. Then again it could be a bluff. The point is - no one wants to take a chance and several are hedging toward safety. We could se a spurt higher in precious metals today.

- Black Blade

Black BladeEuropean Markets Start Off Negative#9086712/06/02; 05:17:33

Euro markets are trending into negative territory again this morning.

- Black Blade

Black BladeIraq War Could Cost $1.9 Trillion #9086812/06/02; 05:37:31


In the worst case, a war with Iraq could cost the United States almost as much as the government spent in the last budget year — nearly $2 trillion, according to new projections. Researchers concluded in a study released Thursday that war with Iraq could cost the United States from $99 billion to more than $1.9 trillion over a decade. The lower figure assumes a successful military, diplomatic and nation-building campaign; the higher figure assumes a prolonged war with a disruption of oil markets and a U.S. recession, the authors say in a study by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Both figures assume a U.S. involvement in the country for 10 years.

Black Blade: That's a tidy sum considering that US debt is already a severe burden. To paraphrase the late Sen. Everett Dirksen "a $trillion here and a $trillion there and soon we're talking about real money".

Black BladeMarket Indicators#9086912/06/02; 05:52:15

US market index futures are pointing to a negative open on Wall Street, however, this is ahead of economic data releases today such as monthly unemployment, etc. - depends on the "spin". The USD is lower, PMs are higher, petroeul is flat, and grains are solidly higher on concerns of drought ravaged regions around the globe being able to meet demand. Should be an exciting day on Wall Street today with the Iraqi deadline approaching.

- Black Blade

Black BladeNatexis Suffered `Heavy' Loss on Equity Derivatives #9087012/06/02; 06:05:49


Paris, Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Natexis Banques Populaires, the investment banking unit of France's fifth-biggest lender, fired about half a dozen employees after uncovering ``heavy'' losses from trading in equity derivatives.

Black Blade: A preview of JP Morgan Chase? Hmmm…

Paper Avalanche@ Belgian#9087112/06/02; 06:09:34


Thank you for your comments. I was hoping to elicit your response.

Have a great weekend.

Paper Avalanche

Black BladeSpot Spikes $326 an ounce#9087212/06/02; 06:33:56

Spot tagged $326 an ounce which is a critical target according to JP Morgan analysts in yesterday's daily report. This could get "interesting".

- Black Blade

Black BladeChart is Going Vertical!#9087312/06/02; 06:40:37

Hitting $327 and climbing! The chart is going vertical and it appears that stops are being triggered. Next target $330? Remember that $330 an ounce was the "line in the sand" last time and past $340 it could be short covering madness. This could be fun if only no massive paper assault comes out of left field. Should get "interesting".

- Black Blade

ElGordoJobs report just released#9087412/06/02; 06:43:59

non-farm payroll DOWN 40,000
predicted was gain of 45,000
shocker for experts

Unemplyment rate now 6 %

Lemmings to and fro

Mr Gresham(No Subject)#9087512/06/02; 06:47:26

Looks like we're headed for a big case of "That was then, but this is NOW!"

(One o' these days we're going to find out if all these stops, and ranges, and resistances, etc. etc. were really real. They sure have seemed to me like some pretty thin line-drawing in an overall POG in the hundreds, but I've read all the explanations, too. It just seemed like lots of back-room stuff to me... Oh well, fasten your seatbelts.)

RockThere's One Thing No Amount Of Paper Can Control#9087612/06/02; 07:04:02


This could be the beginning of the end for the Paper Lion as each support level is reached. The key to success in this environment is patience. "In your patience possess ye your souls." Luke 21:19



ArcticfoxUS$ index graph looks like big cliff..#9087712/06/02; 07:07:35

ElGordoCNBC has Gold 327.70#9087812/06/02; 07:08:16

The people on CNBC look really GLUM!

Remember the Fed has no more room for cuts really-
and now the unemployment rate is 6%

Today will really be exciting
Recovery is blown out of the water
Scary times

Black BladeUnemployment and USD Look Ugly!#9087912/06/02; 07:10:01

Unemployment hit 6% vs. the expected 5.8% as the "Bone Pile" grows ever higher. And that's only those who are "officially" unemployed! Next month about 95,000 unemployed per week will lose their unemployment benefits. Also the USD dropped like a lead balloon on the news falling well under 106. Meanwhile gold got ambushed at $327 an ounce (spot). We still have a regular short session in the Gold pits. Gold could move much higher after Wall Street opens and the bad news is absorbed and toward the end of the trading session as war jitters grow ahead of this Sunday's deadline. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

Black BladeCNBC Poll!#9088012/06/02; 07:13:24

Did CNBC announce the "Gold Poll" results yesterday? If they did and they poo pooed Gold with derisive remarks, then today they get their come uppence. Talk about Karma! A few angry loyal CNBC followers must be shaking their heads about now. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

Black BladeOh Yeah Baby!#9088112/06/02; 07:22:59

Look at the numbers! US market index futures looking like a crash is about to happen at the open. This is going to be "freakin" ugly! The USD is tanking, petroleum is flat, and precious metals are shining bright as "insurance" vehicles. Looks like a lotta fun today!

- Black Blade

ElGordoSec Treasury O'Neil to RESIGN!!!#9088212/06/02; 07:26:28

Amazing news today. Treasury Secretary GONE!
PizzO'Neil Resigns#9088312/06/02; 07:28:00

Hasn't been much of a Treasury Sec in my opinion, but you have to give the man credit - jumping ship before she goes down.

Maybe the smartest one in the administration as of today.


RockPaul O'Neill Announces Resignation!#9088412/06/02; 07:28:16

Most cowards head for the exit doors right before the &%$#
hits the fan. You won't be missed Sir.


Black BladeHey MK - Should Get Very Busy at the Castle#9088512/06/02; 07:38:26

I got a feeling that the phone banks at the castle will be lit up today. Looks like a lot of shorn sheep will be looking for shelter so to speak. The economic data is very ugly - the scales are falling from Lemming eyes and the curtain is being pulled back by Spot. What do we see? Alan Greespan feverishly pulling levers and pushing buttons? Hey, maybe that "meeting" at the Miami Fed building last night was just one of many Fed meetings last night ahead of release of the "grim" data. The plane "accident" may have inadvertently "pulled back a curtain". Anyway, looks like it could be a busy day. I was going to make a phone call to an old friend on today's Gold action, however, I have a feeling he will be very busy today too, perhaps too busy to talk. It should get rather "interesting" today.

- Black Blade

BoilermakerWhat floor does Alan G. work on?#9088612/06/02; 07:39:03

He might possibly jump (or be pushed) soon.


PizzRock#9088712/06/02; 07:40:26

Hey buddy, before you get too extatic, do you really think anyone with any brains and ability is going to take on the job?

My fear is that we'll get a Larry Kudlow type in there, course my investments might double overnite (smile).


Black BladeSo I Hear! O'Neill Bails Out! - Rat Leaves Burning Ship#9088812/06/02; 07:42:57

I don't have any confirmation, but I heard this about an hour ago. If true, then this should add yet another element to the equation. Maybe those Fed meetings(?) last night were a sign of "big troubles" to come. With all the news coming out maybe O'Neill does not want to be the only player standing without a chair when the music stops. "Very Interesting times"

- Black Blade

BTW, any confirmation on the O'Neill resignation rumor?

Black BladeRe: Pizz - Successor#9088912/06/02; 07:46:35

I heard that Larry Summers was considered the likely successor to O'Neill if the Sec. should resign or be forced out. Should be a "big' chair to fill - a "very big" chair.

- Black Blade

The Invisible HandBBC#9089012/06/02; 07:46:48

The US Treasury Department has unexpectedly announced that the Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill has resigned.
The news, announced just ahead of the market open on Wall Street, is likely to unnerve investors still cautious about the state of the economy.

Last month, Mr O'Neill sought to reassure Americans that the country was on the road to recovery.

But he has now handed his resignation to the US president.

In his resignation letter to President Bush he said it had been a "privilege to serve the Nation during these challenging times".

"I thank you for that opportunity."

A US Treasury spokeswoman said the resignation would become effective "in the next few weeks".

More soon

Black BladeConfirmed!!!#9089112/06/02; 07:52:56

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill on Friday abruptly announced his resignation, which a spokeswoman said would become effective "in the next few weeks."

"It has been a privilege to serve the Nation during these challenging times. I thank you for that opportunity," O'Neill said in a brief letter to President Bush.

Black Blade: It looks like the type of letter that reflects a firing, not a resignation. Maybe this also means the end of the "strong dollar policy". Gold popped up $4 on the news but came off a tad. Today is getting more "interesting" all the time. Hmmm...

LeighWhy Things Are Falling Apart Today#9089212/06/02; 07:57:02

At the time of last night's plane crash at the Federal Reserve in Miami, there was a holiday party going on. SOMEBODY TOOK THE PUNCH BOWL AWAY!!
Black BladeMarket Is Getting Hammered#9089312/06/02; 07:58:48

The equities markets are getting thrashed and the USD is tanking. It appears that someone or some institution is working hard to put the brakes on the rise in precious metals this morning. A real tug-o-war is going on.

- Black Blade

BoilermakerGood news!! We don't have to worry too much about inflation#9089412/06/02; 08:00:14

Report: Inflation Gauge Dips in November
Friday December 6, 9:42 am ET

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. inflation eased a little in November but is likely to edge higher as the economy recovers, a report showed on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute's Future Inflation Gauge dipped to 114.5 last month from an upwardly revised 115.0 in October, the research group said, as the country's labor market weakened and industrial goods prices slipped.

"Assuming the economy continues to grow, U.S. inflation is likely to remain in a cyclical uptrend," ECRI said in a statement.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smoothes out monthly fluctuations, fell to 20.5 percent in November from 24.7 percent in October.

comment: These guys see a growing economy?

Kevnext rat: Lindsey#9089512/06/02; 08:00:49

DJ White House Econ Adviser Lindsey Resigns - Official
Belgian@ Sir Gresham#9089612/06/02; 08:00:51

You certainly picked the most applicable phrase out of a thousand A/FOA pages, Sir...

THAT WAS THEN, BUT THIS IS ***NOW*** ! Just love and enjoy it to hear it once more through your wise posting ! Great !

Mr GreshamYikes!#9089712/06/02; 08:13:23

Correction: Make that "BIG Yikes!"
The Hoople$330 still is scary to some #9089812/06/02; 08:13:35

Who could have had the firepower to take gold down almost $4 in a blink? Working groups, with BB and Fed buddies? That must be one scary number to get violated. ABX probably becomes Ashanti. JPM becomes Enron. The Fed becomes Japan and Brazil all rolled into one. And Wall Street becomes toast.
Black BladeLawrence Lindsey Bails#9089912/06/02; 08:15:18

White House economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey has submitted his resignation, a senior White House official said on Friday shortly after the planned resignation of Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill was announced. "Larry Lindsey has submitted his resignation to the president to pursue endeavors outside the government," the senior official said.

Black Blade: This too looks like a firing. Two in one blow! Looks like a house cleaning to me. Now if Alan Greenspan blows it will get even more "interesting". Meanwhile Gold got ambushed on bank selling (rumor and as yet unconfirmed) and the stock markets are plunging hard. In a "free market" gold would be flying high. Now if the Lemmings come out in force we could see these banks and several hedge funds filing chapter 11. Still have time to cross thye "line in the sand".

PizzFor Whatever the Reason#9090012/06/02; 08:20:21

ANYTIME the head money guy jumps ship, fired or resigned, the problems are always critical.

Treasury functions are not that complicated - you just need money or the ability to raise it.

It appears that we may have neither with a strong emphasis on "the ability to raise it".

The next bond issue to raise cash for the deficit, trade deficit, and anything else they need cash for will be domestic "war bonds". They haven't been able to get the cash off the sidelines and back into the bubbles, so how about a lot of PR, ra, ra, and invest in blowing up the world?

Probably also issue a national visa @ 1%, cash back of course, amortized over the next 100 years, with free miles (assuming we have an airline left).

The administration is scared s______less. There are no answers, so now Bush has to start replacing people as fast as he can to show he is doing something about it.

Been there a few times in business. You can always find someone who'll say, "no problem boss, I can do it - fat chance.

The best short in the market today is "sell the US" - just watch the foreign money head for the exits now. . .


Black BladeInstitutions Are Buying the Market#9090112/06/02; 08:27:04

It looks like institutional money is buying the S&P and pumping up the equities markets. Maybe the "President's Working Group on Financial Markets" is back in business. I guess with all the horrific economic data nad news these guys don't want the winning streak to end the week. This is getting really bizarre.

- Black Blade

Off to ski for a couple of hours

ElGordoAdministration has many vacancies#9090212/06/02; 08:28:01

Don't forget the SEC office is empty too!
Bush needs a whole new economic team.

Plunge Protection team is hard at work right now.
Giving investors a one last chance to get out of SM.

As the Worm Turns

HipplebeckBelgian#9090312/06/02; 08:29:13

Yesterday, you made the statement that GOLD IS NOT MONEY, yet the arguement you put forward proves that GOLD IS MONEY!!!!
You are confusing money with currency.
Gold is the real money, and everything else paper or electronic is a derivative of real money.
Dollars are not money. The word is intended as an adjective.
Don't get confused about money by thinking of that free gold floating reserve, because it is the money that the euro derivative is based on. It is still fractional reserve banking, trading a derivative of money based on the fact that you can trade paper as long as you have real money (GOLD) in the bank.

money - c.1250, from O.Fr. moneie, from L. moneta "mint, coinage," from Moneta, a title of the Roman goddess Juno, in whose temple money was coined.

According to early Roman mythology, the goddess Moneta caused geese to timeously warn the guards of an impending threat to the GOLD treasury housed in Juno's temple. Moneta thereafter became the guardian of finances and her name was given to the latin word for money.

All we are witnessing is a classic run on the bank. America is about to default on it's debts. The US declared bankruptsy when they went off the gold standard and conned the world into accepting this bankruptsy by declaring that gold is not money anymore. It is what the founding fathers of America warned against. The Euro is a very poor replacement, but better than nothing. (fractional reserve is still only fractional reserve) Only when gold is traded as money will things be back in order. That means currency not vaguely backed by a percentage of gold, but a certain amount of gold directly gauranteed at a set rate for that currency.

HipplebeckPizz#9090412/06/02; 08:36:53

You said it right. When that 330 mark on spot is approached, they are scared s______!!
320 hurts someone a little,
325 hurts bad,
and 330 puts someone's testacles in a vice.

Mr GreshamWho's next?#9090512/06/02; 08:52:34

Greenspan could just about have himself declared "Emperor For All Eternity" right about now if he made one step toward the door...
LeighWho's Next?#9090612/06/02; 08:55:47

The Drudge Report is hinting that it might be Steve Forbes.
MKHousecleaning#9090712/06/02; 09:06:46

Today we've had a prime example of how the PPT works. Now the PPT reins are in the Bush administration and their utilization is clearly tainted by politics, just as they were under Clinton. The politicians have no regard to free market dynamics -- just how they look in the polls. This is the first move in the GWB's re-election campaign. The Bush administration which has looked very bad in dealing with the economic slowdown -- these firings are clearly indicative of things getting worse (what do they know that we don't know?) -- now twant to appear as if they are going to do what it takes to take the edge off the collective (and building) American economic angst.

Now we will watch and analyze the next move. Who will ride the White Horse into Washington? All the while keep in mind that the Bush administration has done

--- nothing in reality to deal with the corporate culture at the center of the mess on Wall Street (Elliot Spitzer has),

--- nothing to deal with the massive layoffs resulting from the phony, IPO economy (which never produced profits, only spent enormous sums of money raided from investor stock accounts

--- nothing to stem or even moderate the building trade, currency and economic war building between G-3 + China

--- nothing to create or even suggest an understanding of the world economy (beyond the oil question) that would translate to a "policy" for the years to come

All it has done is brandish its sword and now someone must pay the price. (A gold trader friend put it simply enough to me this morning "Bush is telling us that he's going to be a 'domestic' president now, not just a 'warrior.'") So we get a purge. Frankly, as the dust settles I do not think this is going to restore confidence. It sends the wrong message. If there was something wrong with the Lindsay/O'Neil team what was it? I'd like to know. So would Wall Street. In order to do the right thing, the Bush administration needs an economic analysis. Then they need to act on it. But the fact of the matter is that they don't have an analysis. They have never had an analysis at least one not cogent enough to make an impression on anyone. They simply get up each day and tackle what's thrown at them. Will a new team make a difference? I don't think so.

**NOTE: Europe (along these same lines), as some are now suggesting, is in no better shape -- and that, not the Middle East or the Far East or the War on Terrorism -- could very well become the THE real crisis for the White House. Germany which has acted economically very much like Japan since the 1970 paradigm change could very well begin going the way of Japan over the next 6 months to a year. The West is now rudderless and at odds with itself and that becomes more apparent every day. What would the onset of a fractured Europe have on the United States -- particularly with respect to policy in the Mid East??

Something to chew on during a day that has already had a strange start. Onward, my fellow goldmeisters.

Sierra MadreOh, no! Here we go again...#9090812/06/02; 09:09:43

Is gold money? Good grief, in no time Ari will be charging in slashing right and left, arguing that gold is NOT money, Belgian says yes or no, I really don't understand, and then Hipplebeck, watch out, you are in for it!

Is gold money or not? It really does not worry me. I say, along with others who are notable, that money is a generally accepted medium of exchange. Fact is, if I want to buy something with a gold coin, I'll probably have a bit of trouble doing so. Gold has been hidden away (in more than one sense) for so long, people are not familiar with it, and striking a deal about some good or service in exchange for gold might be sticky, although probably not impossible.

But, let us not quibble. If gold is not generally accepted as a medium of exchange at present, it can certainly recuperate that status quite easily, and I believe, eventually it will recuperate it.

About Moneta, the Roman goddess that caused the geese to warn the Romans that the Goths were about to sack the Treasury: Curious that "Moneta" the goddess took her name from the Latin verb "moneo", to warn. We still use that word for instance, in "ad-monish".

I wonder if Moneta has admonished Mr. O'Neill about some danger and he is wisely moving out of Treasury.


CoBra(too)The Resignations of O'Neill and Lindsey ....#9090912/06/02; 09:57:56

apart of being firings in reality - according to our good host, MK - smacks of a premonition of even worse economic conditions to come.

Without wanting to become too sarcastic, as our own european economy is at best a basket case as well, I feel at least one should try to squeeze out a little solace of a desperate situation, where war seems to be the final delusion. A delusion to obstruct the clear vision of the complete failure of the Clinton/Rubin strong $ policies - accentuating todays problems of overwhelming debt in the US$ hegemony.

So, why not have some fun? Lets get today's equivalent of Abbot and Costello to lead us to our monetary and economic destiny.

What a joke? Nah ... Reality - cb2

The HoopleMK, good analysis#9091012/06/02; 10:04:14

As usual. My thoughts exactly when I heard of the resignations. The "creep" had begun. (Nixon's old committee to re-elect the President) I don't think it matters a whit who is sitting in those seats when economies are post bubble. More Titanic chair re-arranging. A chimp as Treasury Secretary could have looked brilliant during the mania equity inflation, now a buffoon will likely be made of anyone who assumes the role. I know GATA will be all over it tonight but today probably felt more rigged than any other day and that's saying a lot. The $2 collar is absurd given the stunning developments and ramifications.
PizzHipplebeck#9091112/06/02; 10:18:02

I don't think the 320, 325, 330 resistance in gold is a dire as we'd like to think. 350 or 400 gold is not the end of the finacial world, but it's sure going sting a few shorts - and these guys have had plenty of warning. Greenspan told the financial institutions to get their derivatives houses in order months ago, and the FED has told everyone that they will monetize any and all to prevent deflation - and they will - a thirties type deflation has never been an option. PM's are going to go up, no matter what.

What the administration can't tolerate is a crash, they know they have to get the weak players out (no bailout for UAL), clean the system of the crap, give the survivors some pricing power, and inflate to manageable levels (wherever that is). Short term you may want to call it deflation, but the dropping of the prices of "optional" goods has to happen, and is happening now, with the prices of necessities rising giving the appearance of moderate inflation.

What Bush needs politically on the economy IMHO is a short soft landing, and it just is not possible. O'Neil is far from stupid, and my take is that Bush gave the orders for what he needs and the financial boys said "sorry", it won't work or it can't be done. All Bush could do was find new players, buy some more time, and hope like hell he can find one big rabbit left in his stetson.

We seem to be getting closer to the last ditch political senario most people in power resort to. If I can't fix it, I'd better create a situation(s) that I can sell as "not my fault" and toss the blame externally - war and terror seem to be the logical choices at this time - "any which way you can". It has to be soon, too, because politically they'll only have a year or so to pick up the pieces. The key


My two cents worth on gold and money. Physical gold is wealth and paper anything is just confetti. I invest some paper, in paper to offset other paper that I'm forced, like most, to use to live. With a little luck my paper gold investments will outperform my paper liabilites and I may be able to escape this world with a positive, physical wealth balance sheet - Physical gold, with a bit of silver for day to day needs.

(And that crash you just heard was Ari slipping off his chair in total disbelief (smile).

The line at the physical gold window is getting longer and the supplies will dropping real fast soon. . . .


sourdoughPaul and Larry to pursue other interests#9091212/06/02; 10:35:28

Suppose they`ll start a Gold Fund?
Mr Greshamsourdough#9091312/06/02; 10:47:13

I think Larry's already in one, with Moe and Curly.

Nyuk, nyuk, nyuk!

Cavan ManMK's Analysis#9091412/06/02; 10:50:33

Mike: Spot on as usual; thanks so much. You should be writing a newsletter :>)...I made the comment back a few months that this group is simply doing what you suggest, "doing the next best thing that comes along". We thought they were the best and brightest and had a plan eh? The truth is, IT is too big to "plan". The Russians eventually and painfully arrived at the same conclusion. Free and unfettered markets are the prescription and should be the operative paradigm. Well, to be fair, I think history has tied their hands somewhat.

If you are a large, sovereign type you've got to be coming to the same conclusion if you haven't already. All paths lead to gold as the best and brightest in Europe and Asia all went to the same academies. Sir AG is hedged and so am I thanks to USAGOLD and Centennial Precious Metals.

sourdoughOther interests#9091512/06/02; 11:07:12

"I think Larry's already in one, with Moe and Curly.'
Good one.
Poor Paul, decent guy, tried to do his duty to America, get`s saddled with something (gold problem), makes him a liar, Wall Street says he has no credibility, reputation is in the dumpster, made a fall guy cause there`s no cure.
Wonder how he feels, "no wonder he said who needs this".
He "ought" to start a gold fund, save as many American as he can, redeem himself, as stop this crap, they call democracy and fair markets in the U.S.
Revenge, at least on those wall street backstabbin crooks, would be sweet, to say nothin of the thanks he would reap from his fund investors. By next year they would be lookin at him with an adoration usually reserved for Warren Buffet.

CalidorTrain Wreck Ahead spun by Bloomberg#9091612/06/02; 11:19:24

S&P 500 Rises, Led by Financials as O'Neill, Lindsey Resign
By Danielle Sessa

New York, Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor's 500 Index rose for the first day in six, amid optimism the ouster of Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill and Larry Lindsey, the chief White House economic adviser, may pave the way for measures to boost equities and corporate earnings.

Financial shares such as Citigroup Inc. led the advance. The gains helped indexes rebound from initial declines triggered by an unexpected increase in unemployment. Stocks are likely to fall this week as the Dow Jones Industrial Average heads toward its first weekly decline since October.

With a new group of Bush administration economic advisers, ``the likelihood is that the policies that will be adopted by this government will continue the recovery and let corporations enhance profitability,'' said Robert Goodman, senior economic adviser at Putnam Investments, which oversees $250 billion in Boston.

Calidor - Nice topspin put on this news. She ought to be a tennis player.

So what if the bridge ahead is out and a train engineer and conductor just bailed out to avoid the wreck. If more fiat is shoveled in the SM, the economic train just may make the jump. "We don't need no stinkin' bridge."

OK everybody - line up. Sheeple fleecing to the left, Gold owners to the right.

goldenboyIs Gold Money?#9091712/06/02; 11:20:46

No. Gold is much too valuable to use as money, the proof is that the only place it is money if I remember correctly, is at BIS where they trundle the gold between cages to settle international accounts. (If they still bother)
I could attempt to use $100 Canadian Olympic 14kt coins as money, but I would lose on every transaction as the gold value exceeds face, albeit at a modest premium.
Therefore, gold is wealth. The proof is that this form of wealth buried 100, 1000, or 10,000 years ago, is wealth today. So is land, but land is not portable, is taxable, can be stolen/conquered-taken etc. Many europeans could testify to the benefits of gold vs. land, having lost huge estates in WW 1&2.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Gentlemen and gift-givers! Omega necklaces are THE hot fashion item out there#9091812/06/02; 11:25:03

Our very own lovely and talented Marie has used our network of connections to offer these beautiful and fashionable Omega necklaces to our clientele at prices WAY below what you will find in stores anywhere. We simply don't have to cover the overhead that jewelry stores do as they lease expensive space in the malls and on Main St., USA.

So call Marie 1-800-869-5115 ext.106 for great gift-giving suggestions and assistance, and avoid the steep jewelry store markups and sales taxes this year!

It will be the easiest thing you do all month. "Hello, Marie? What is an Omega necklace? My wife has been dropping hints about them for months..."

Sierra MadreA Haiku for ElGordo and B.B.:#9091912/06/02; 11:25:30

"Gloomy monkeys watch
Chickens coming home to roost;
rats leave burning ship."

G$(No Subject)#9092012/06/02; 11:34:02

Funny to watch the last minute selling on the futures. Took a dollar out of it in two minutes. Should settle up around $1.5


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Hard assets... Easy access!#9092112/06/02; 11:49:33

gold sovereigns
Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance and credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial asset which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

USAGOLD - Centennial is here to help.

PizzDon't know how the reporting on CNBC is doing, but. . . .#9092212/06/02; 11:49:47

I've heard two very positive reports on gold from analysts on WebFn this morning.

Amazing how fast the analysts can change horses in mid stream. . . .


sectorThe Perils of Competitive Currency Devaluation#9092312/06/02; 12:02:09

Stephen Roach (New York)

Guns are blazing on the anti-deflation front. Policy makers in Japan and the United States have elevated deflation to their number one concern. Even European authorities have finally joined the game, as evidenced by an aggressive 50 bp ECB easing, with the euro-zone inflation rate still above the so-called price-stability threshold. The full force of the global policy arsenal now seems aimed at arresting deflation. And that's very good news.

The bad news is that there's no guarantee the medicine will work. Policy traction is most difficult to achieve at low levels of inflation and nominal interest rates. Just ask Japan. In the case of the US economy, stabilization policies typically work their charm on three sectors – consumer durables, homebuilding, and business capital spending. With all three sectors having gone to excess in recent years, any response to policy stimulus could be surprisingly muted. In Europe, monetary stimulus is being offset by the combined headwinds of fiscal consolidation and lingering structural rigidities, especially in the labor market. History tells us that deflationary remedies must be administered early and aggressively. Only time will tell if it already isn't too late.

But there's another piece of bad news on the deflation watch – the risk that a policy clash gets played out in foreign exchange markets. That's especially the case with respect to Japan and the United States, where senior officials in both countries have lately hinted at playing the currency-devaluation trump card in the battle against deflation. Haruhiko Kuroda, the Japanese MOF vice minister for international affairs, has become quite vocal in recent days attempting to manage the yen lower – first with an opinion piece in the Financial Times (see "Time for a Switch to Global Reflation" published on 1 December 2002) and now with a rhetorical salvo implying that the Japanese currency has only just begun to fall from a position of "excessive strength." At the same time, Fed Governor Ben Bernanke has introduced the possibility of dollar devaluation as an anti-deflation remedy as one option in a broad array of "non-traditional" actions that the US central bank could take against deflation (see his 21 November 2002 speech before the National Economists Club, "Deflation: Making Sure ‘It’ Doesn't Happen Here"). While the coexistence of a weaker yen and a weaker dollar seems highly unlikely, just the mere suggestion by authorities in both countries to reflate through currency depreciation conjures up the perils of competitive currency devaluation – a highly disruptive outcome for the global economy and world financial markets.

The Japanese currency has only just begun to fall. So implies the Financial Times.

In order to get a benefit, the yen must fall relative to the dollar. But the dollar needs to fall as well against everybody else's currecny, so there's a major problem…checkmate. No more room to move.

At 133 the Japanese gold-bugs swarm. The top finance guys talk yen = 150. Sakibara said a while back, yen = 200.

At 104, the US gold-bugs come out of their long-dormant larval stage.

Pretty soon, the sky will be yellow with gold-bugs.

geGold and Money#9092412/06/02; 12:05:05

In the past, gold was money in the peace times and paper money was used during wars, as a temporary measure. Permanent paper money results in a perpetual emergency situation.

Euro thinker Mundell notes that superpowers tend to print paper money (or mint overvalued coins) to extract seignorage from their clients, while an international balance of power leads to an international gold standard.

Alan Greenspan has noted that, gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each implies and requires the other. Moreover, "An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions."

Asset bubbles and the ensuing depressions are created by an easy money, easy credit policy. Gold as money is a powerful obstacle to this process, since you cannot print gold. Of course it is possible to trade the business cycle successfully as an individual, but the society as a whole suffers a lot.

Therefore the answer to the question whether gold is money or not depends on the political orientation.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Contemplating an IRA Rollover to include gold? George is your man.#9092512/06/02; 12:10:51

Call George 1-800-869-5115 ext.102

He's helped a lot of investors seemlessly through a process which might otherwise seem like putting a camel through a needle's eye. George says, "Gold and precious metals IRA's? No problem!"

a nation of oneRe: Black Blade (12/6/02; 01:20:05MT - msg#: 90856)#9092612/06/02; 12:15:12

Quote: "The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Thursday ruled that there is no individual right to gun possession, holding that only state-run militias have a constitutional right to bear arms."

--This is a blatant violation of the Constitution. The way the amendment reads merely uses the necessity of a well regulated militia to justify "...the right of the people to keep and bear arms...." To construe the meaning so as to require that only states possess the right to bear arms is more than just a failure to comprehend English; It is an unprincipled grab for power beyond anything -openly known of- thus far, by leaders of the U.S. government. Further, the amendment states that this right shall not be 'infringed.' 'Infringe' is an interesting word and has a particular meaning. It implies an encroachment clearly violating a right or prerogative. 'Infringe' is exactly what the court has done. This is not the first time, but it is the most blatant. Ladies and Gentlemen, the constitutional democratic republic in which we have lived most of our lives is over.

fobjoba nation of one-not over yet#9092712/06/02; 12:37:03

Don't worry-the 9th circuit court is panic-stricken that the end game for gun control has arrived....and not in their favor....the Cato Institute is about to bring the long-awaited test case against gun control re the gun ban in the District of Columbia.
Not very well noticed was a 'warning' issued by the Supremes a few years(months?) ago in which they stated:(If I may paraphrase)"'The People' is a term of art used throughout the Constitution and the Bill Of Rights... and in every case, it means you, me, and Joe down the street, and not any agency of the government." The 9th circuit court, in my opinion, has just taken the offered noose and thrust their heads into it.

Black BladeBush Drawing Up Short List for Top Economic Jobs #9092812/06/02; 13:12:43


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Topping the list of potential successors to Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill and White House economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey are tax-cut advocates with Wall Street savvy, Republican sources and lobbyists say. Lindsey and O'Neill resigned suddenly on Friday, roiling financial markets and creating fevered speculation about their possible replacements. While the administration is also looking internally to fill the posts, several Republican sources said Stephen Friedman of Marsh & McLennan Capital Inc., the former chairman of Goldman Sachs, is a leading candidate for one of the top jobs in Bush's economic team. Friedman did not return calls.

Black Blade: There are other possible replacements mentioned in the article. The firings look like a desperate plan to salvage the Bush administration as Dubya is intent on avoiding the same mistakes as his father.

BTW, there are some other interesting developments in the Gold market today. I will address those elements in today's Daily Market Report comments. A broker friend says much of the downward pressure on Gold has more to do with activities outside of Washington. There are a lot of desperate characters out there shaking in their boots.

a nation of oneRe: fobjob (12/06/02; 12:37:03MT - msg#: 90927)#9092912/06/02; 13:18:42

Quote: "'The People' is a term of art used throughout the Constitution and the Bill Of Rights... and in every case, it means you, me, and Joe down the street, and not any agency of the government."

--Cautious and reassuring. But not the only reality. Our nation has been falling by degrees for some time. Nations do often fall by degrees, helped by a few dramatic events along the way. But you are right. I could have written, "Ladies and Gentlemen, if this decision is not overturned, the constitutional democratic republic in which we have lived most of our lives will very obviously be over." Nonetheless, in my opinion, fundamentally, the sentence as originally written was already true, without even considering that particular court's decision.

Black BladeRe: Pizz and nation of one#9093012/06/02; 13:26:57

Pizz - I have given up on CNBC in favor of Webfn myself. They certainly have a more balanced veiw of the markets and the economy than the clowns on CNBC. They (webfn) just present the news and have reasonable analyses, not usually blantant stock sales pitches like the CNBC infomercial.

Nation - The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals is a joke even among the legal community. They simply ignore over 200 years of history and the writings of the framers of the Constitution. They are considered "activist" judges who legislate rather than judicate. They following the school of the "Living Constitution". That is the Constitution must change and adjust to the times. The US Supreme Court on the other hand is generally of the "Original Intent" school of thought. That is they are more concerned with the original intent of the framers of the Constitution and therefore many of their decisions are made on what the framers meant. This too is rather difficult though there are numerous writings by the framers that discuss most of the elements in the US Constitution. There is the smaller school of thought - "logical" or "objective" reasoning - which is to say that the Constitution means exactly what it says. But that would make most Federal judges insignificant place holders collecting government welfare checks. ;-)


- Black Blade

back to putting the finishing touches on the DMR

Belgian@ Hipplebeck # 90903#9093112/06/02; 13:46:20

Since Ari is having a snowball fight out there...I'll jump in to say that : Once we start discussing well-defined definitions...we risk to get lost into the unproductive academic spirals not contributing to our mutual understandings. As an example that could lead to more confusion is the fact that today, you/me and many others here, still exchange intrinsically worthless paper (coins) for valuable Gold. In principle, fiat is therefore still to be considered as money. So w're back on square one.
Point is that my Gold-Property is what I call my wealth, though very modest. All other practical medium that enables me to exchange it for Gold is intrinsically worthless to me and doesn't qualify to be called: WEALTH. Paradoxal isn't it ?

Gold will always be there to be exchanged for another tangible, via currency medium or whatever one might call money. Hope that the goddess Moneta, forgives me, being so selfwilled. She may be the guardian of my money, but not sleep with my Gold-Wealth.

Once Gold will be completely separeated from the associated perception to be as good as money (or vice versa)...GOLD WILL BE CALLED FREE ! Everything else that wants to acquire some status of intrinsic worth will have to compete with the ultimate worth of Gold-Wealth.

For this reason I don't agree with you saying that, when going of the goldstandard, the US declared that Gold wasn't money anymore. Wrong imvho as Gold-student. The Gold reserves, represented the US's wealth and was associated with a proportional amount of exchange-mediums as fiat or any other kind of paper that should be related to that stash of Gold-Wealth, priced to the changing amounts of paper.

This is what the euro wishes to achieve, now. Gold in the vaults, physically and freely tradable, and associated (representing) a currency, worthy again of the definition of money. The perfect concept for eliminating fractional reserve abuses, once and for all.

That's why Gold-Wealth *MUST* re-enter into people's minds as to be able to speak about real currency-money again!!!
You can't deny that Gold is playing a role within the ongoing Euroland-process of building and expansion.
This is Euroland's one step ahead of the US, before we all face the same, difficult times ahead. We all have a monetary problem of first order and an economic one in second order.

Sorry if the above is a bit confusing...but blame it on my poor English and the snow, will ye. Cheers to you Hipplebeck.

goldquestRon Paul for U S Secretary of the Treasury#9093212/06/02; 14:17:32

About the only hope for the Bush economy!
PippinConfiscation : what if ... ?#9093312/06/02; 14:18:30

Please allow a little (if not slim...) Hobbit ask a basic question, based on the following depressing premises:
Given the present ambiance as far as personnal freedom is concerned, I have the feeling that PMs could well be confiscated again if the worse comes to the worst, or that their use will be forbidden, or (to take the question from a different angle), that the only possible way to buy and sell will be electronic based. E-money.
My question is this one : has anybody imagined a solution by which our physical gold and PMs could be of some use in such circumstances, or will we only have unusable and illegal wealth stored in a corner?
As a possible preliminary indication : how did people solve this prohibition problem between 1933 and the time the law was suppressed ? Were all gold-related transactions entirely impossible ?
Note: this is a general question, applicable to all countries - not only USA.

Black BladeBush May Center Stimulus Bill on Dividend Tax Repeal #9093412/06/02; 14:37:30


Washington, Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Senior aides to President George W. Bush recommended legislation to cut taxes on corporate dividend payments at a briefing last week on proposals to stimulate the economy. Bush was presented with options for a stimulus bill by his economic team on Nov. 26, administration officials said. Members of Congress who were briefed later by White House officials said repeal of the tax individuals pay on dividends is central to a plan to accelerate the U.S. economy's recovery from recession.

Black Blade: This would be interesting as only those companies with real bottom line profits would pay dividends and those relying on "pro forma" or other bogus earnings measures would be severely punished. It is impossible to pay dividends out of phoney earnings. Profitable companies that are ripping off their owners (that is shareholders) would be under pressure to spread the wealth. This would also expose the fallacy of "pro forma" and "operating" earnings. This could be very "interesting".

Socrates964Pippin#9093512/06/02; 14:42:35

I can guarantee you that there will always be informal markets for gold - as there are for drugs (or liquor during prohibition)., or hard currency in the Eastern Bloc. When I went to Russia in 1984 it was totally illegal for locals to have dollars/marks, and yet you only needed to walk down the street to get 2-3 offers to change.

If you are seriously worried about this - might I suggest some language lessons: Arabic, Chinese, Portuguese, Turkish, Spanish, etc. take your pick.

R PowellBB // Cobra(too) // MarkeTalk // Interstate#9093612/06/02; 14:45:39

Black Blade, how can you give up on CNBC when they offer astute analysis from the likes of Kudlow and Cramer. They were both on this morning. Larry Kudlow insisted that the tech sector is already in recovery and predicts a 35% gain in Asia for this coming year. He was not discouraged by the unemployment number.
Cobra saw them too, only he mistook them for Abbott and Costello. Don't feel poorly, Cobra, this is an often repeated error that even the most discerning among us have made.
What CNBC can not cover with dubious analysis is the early morning gold ticker. It's the only one of late with a green up-pointing arrow next to it. The longer this precious upward trend continues, displayed next to red downward pointing index numbers, the more anxious big investment money will become to find a way to board the train, no?

I haven't seen any thoughts from either Interstate or MarkeTalk lately. I believe both have some unique insight into both the gold and silver markets. Hopefully they'll share their current views.
Gold and money? Either can be transfered into the other. Both have specific uses and values, some of which are not identical. Personally, I like both. I've a fondness for silver too.
Happy end of a good week for metalbugs!

Black BladeThe Perils of Competitive Currency Devaluation #9093712/06/02; 14:49:13


Guns are blazing on the anti-deflation front. Policy makers in Japan and the United States have elevated deflation to their number one concern. Even European authorities have finally joined the game, as evidenced by an aggressive 50 bp ECB easing, with the euro-zone inflation rate still above the so-called price-stability threshold. The full force of the global policy arsenal now seems aimed at arresting deflation. And that's very good news. The bad news is that there's no guarantee the medicine will work. Policy traction is most difficult to achieve at low levels of inflation and nominal interest rates. Just ask Japan.

It's times like this that bring out the worst in xenophobic policies. When faced with the perils of deflation, it's "every man for himself!" Yet since foreign exchange rates are relative prices, it is mathematically impossible for all of the major economies in the world to embrace currency devaluation as a tactic to stave off deflation. The case for a weaker dollar is especially compelling, in my view. As seen through the lens of the real effective exchange rate, the dollar is more than 30% above its 1995 level, whereas the yen is off about 15% over the same period. In that regard, and in the context of America's massive current-account deficit (an estimated -4.6% of GDP in 2002) and Japan's outsize external surplus (an estimated +3.3% of GDP in 2002), it's hard to argue on the basis of economic fundamentals that the yen "deserves" to fall more than the dollar. Over the long sweep of economic history, current-account adjustments – from deficit to balance – are invariably accommodated by currency depreciation. On that basis, it's only a matter of when – not if – the dollar falls.

Black Blade: Ah yes, as I discussed in the past. The "Currency War" continues. "Strong dollar" advocates in the government were fired today. Should get "interesting".

Black BladeRe: R. Powell #9093812/06/02; 14:59:52

"Kudlow and Cramer"? You mean "Heckel and Jeckel"? I did see them a couple of days back. I flipped on CNBC for about 2 minutes and after listening to Cramer rant about how the stock market was about to rocket to new highs and it was stupid for anyone not to invest I turned it off. That Troll turned my stomach with such blatant stock selling. I swear he was raised in a "Boiler Room". Those two clowns should be seen only for amusement otherwise it could be devastating to your financial health. But I have been sold on Webfn and even RobTV is sometimes interesting. I tried to watch for some analysis on the resignations today on regular news TV and what did I get? Winnona Ryder's sentencing, Witney Houston's pathetic life, and a freak show starring adrogenous freak Michael Jackson. This passes for news? No wonder the US population is an illiterate mass of dolts.


- Black Blade

BTW, given all the recent war talk I have been watching the cold war comedy classic "Dr. Strangelove". One of my all time favorites! I recommend everyone rent the video for a good dark humor laugh this weekend.

Black BladeNet worth of U.S. households down, Fed says #9093912/06/02; 15:13:00§ion=BUSINESS&year=2002&month=12&day=6


Slumping stocks took a heavy toll on the balance sheets of U.S. households in the third quarter, according to a report Thursday from the Federal Reserve. In its quarterly "flow of funds" report, the Fed said the net worth of U.S. households and nonprofit organizations totaled $38.32 trillion at the end of the third quarter, down by $1.81 trillion from the second-quarter total. About half the decline was caused by a drop in stock values, which dipped by $948.8 billion. Helping offset that loss was a gain in home values. Household real estate values gained $180.8 billion, to $13.41 trillion, the Fed said.

Black Blade: Just see what happens as the effects of a bursting real estate bubble and inflation come into play.

Black BladeDollar Declines as Drop in U.S. Payrolls Points to Weak Economy#9094012/06/02; 15:24:34


New York, Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar had its biggest decline against the euro in five weeks as a drop in U.S. payrolls damped optimism about the economy. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill's resignation trimmed the dollar's losses. His departure may pave the way for tax cuts and spending increases to bolster the economy, some investors said. ``The jobs report further weakened confidence for a U.S. turnaround,'' said Don Alexander, an international investment strategist at Citigroup Private Bank, with $166 billion in assets. ``This administration is going to be launching a major stimulus package; the feeling was Mr. O'Neill would not be the most effective person because he doesn't believe in this direction.''

Black Blade: Now with "strong dollar" advocates fired from their positions, this could be a cue that the US dollar will be allowed to weaken to its true relative value against other currencies. A boost for precious metals!

Black BladeVenezuela Opposition Strike Throttles Oil Output #9094112/06/02; 15:46:06;jsessionid=YJPP3KSMF4IN2CRBAELCFEY?type=worldNews&storyID=1864243


CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - A crippling nationwide strike by foes of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez began to slice into the country's oil production on Friday having already paralyzed oil shipments from the world's No. 5 crude exporter. Opponents of the leftist leader extended the stoppage, started on Monday, into a fifth day after critical oil exports had been paralyzed by a rebellion in the tanker fleet of state oil firm PDVSA and a shutdown of major shipping terminals on Thursday. PDVSA declared force majeure on exports of crude and products from Venezuela, which supplies about 13 percent of the oil imported by the United States daily. "They are shutting in a lot of oil production in the east because the storage tanks at the ports are full," said a local shipping source.

Black Blade: Yet another crippling blow with rising energy costs are about to hit US shores.

Of to the gym for some "body maintenance". Health body body healthy mind. Well OK, healthy body anyway.

CoBra(too)@ R.Powell - Only discerning from afar ...#9094212/06/02; 15:59:33

I've come across a thread posted at our good friends site
G-E at 16.12 by a certain gold-member.

The good and well meaning poster was distributing certain facts of the Moronomic state of the Moronarchy. As he didn't actually place the Moronarchy in the south of his base, I can only assume that he may have certain attachments to certain Cdn. PM's - for once not really precious metals - nor petty morons either.

Now, to get serious the 64 Trillion question is - has the Moronarchy found its moronomic culprits and/or scapegoats. That is to say the guys responsible for the Keynesian moronomic discipline of spending, spending and spending the accumulated deficits to infinity. Only when it finally stops to work - just double up as a certain Mr. Bernanke advises - or fire the guys and blame 'em for non-compliance.

Unfortunately the new guys being traded for the block may assure a lot of more fun for a while, while being leagues behind the comic of A&B, the only guy I can see would be Ron Paul. - So maybe we, wee euro's can seduce him to help solve the melee in our own pigsty.

Apologies, I'll quit ranting for a while. As it is a hard task to discern reality in these markets and I see the need to bolster my physical side accordingly.
Have a great weekend and golden dreams - cb2

sector@Black Blade $USD Drops...#9094312/06/02; 16:10:15

...but the yen rose

in an almost mirror image...which suggests that the US bought yen.

The powers over here don't want the yen to get near 133 becaue Japanese gold-bugs emerge. Neither do they wish the dollar to drop below 104 for the same reason.

So the Fed and Treasury lackeys seem like Blackbeard, staked out with a rising tide at their lips. First turn one way to breate, then the other.

The outcome is assured.


glennh109Th Circuit Ruling#9094412/06/02; 16:22:03

This has been typical of the courts. In direct conflict with the intent of the framers, they "interpret" the Constitution in terms of advancing state power. This technique goes back to at least the time of the Civil War, when the Supreme Court reversed a previous decision and stated that non-redeemable paper money was "legal tender". Much later (1935), there were the Gold Clause Cases, all decided on a 5 to 4 majority, outlawing gold clauses in contracts. Prior to this, private contracts had been considered outside the reach of gov't (except fraud, etc.). Interestingly, one of the justices who ruled with the majority in the Gold Clause Cases later stated (in 1950, during his retirement) that he had since "learned" much about the issue, and would likely have a different opinion if he was deciding it at that time! FDR himself admitted early on something to the effect that the banking establishment has enjoyed a controlling influence on the decisions of gov't since the time of Jackson(paraphrased).
Protect yourself and stay informed. It may be close, but it's not over quite yet. We're still here on this forum.

Paper AvalanchePaper Avalanche#9094512/06/02; 18:16:56

The handle is becoming the reality.

Have a great weekend!!!!


ElGordo3 Killed in Venezuela violence#9094612/06/02; 19:35:03

CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - At least one gunman opened fire on a Caracas square packed with opponents of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez on Friday, killing three people as strikers trying to force a change of government cut off the world's fifth-largest source of oil exports.

A surprise stoppage by oil tanker captains and an executive-led revolt at state-owned oil giant PDVSA closed port terminals on Thursday, starting a domino effect hitting the production chain all the way to wells in a country that provides 13 percent of the United States' daily oil imports.

The president says the constitution rules out a referendum before August and has accused the opposition of trying to stage a repeat of the coup that briefly ousted him in April.

World oil prices rose further on Friday morning before easing at the announcement the government and opposition would discuss resuming peace talks. International benchmark Brent crude oil slipped 35 cents to $25.45 a barrel.

Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said the port bottleneck had cut crude oil production by 400,000 to 500,000 barrels a day, or up to a sixth of total national output.

While Chavez has threatened to send the military onto renegade PDVSA tankers, their captains were defiant on Friday.

PDVSA has declared "force majeure" -- meaning it has formally admitted it cannot make contracted shipments.

Economists said that while Chavez could hold out for a while, a prolonged oil stoppage would soon take its toll.

Oil provides 80 percent of exports and 50 percent of government revenues in a country already in steep recession.

The State Department, which has denied accusations it encouraged April's coup leaders, said it was monitoring the situation closely and hoped for a negotiated settlement.

Chavez, whose populist style makes wealthier Venezuelans apoplectic but wins him support among the poor majority, has come back slugging in the past. The president, jailed after leading a coup attempt in 1992, has not declared a state of emergency.

While his support has sunk, Chavez's popularity rating of about 30 percent is still higher than that of any figure in the determined but fractious opposition. (Extra reporting by Pascal Fletcher and Patrick Markey)

CytekU.N. Delays Release of Iraqi Weapons Declaration #9094712/06/02; 19:38:44

Fri December 6, 2002 09:16 PM ET

By Evelyn Leopold and Nadim Ladki
UNITED NATI0NS/BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The United Nations will delay release for as much as a week Iraq's crucial weapons declaration until U.N. arms inspectors and nuclear experts have had a chance to screen the mammoth document.

U.N. Security Council members decided on Friday to postpone the release of the document, estimated to be at least 10,000 pages, which Iraq said would be presented to the United Nations in Baghdad on Saturday.

That is one day before a deadline set in a tough Security Council resolution last month for Iraq to come clean on its weapons programs or face possible military action by a U.S.-led coalition.

The declaration -- in which Iraq must give a full accounting of any past and current programs involving biological, chemical or nuclear weapons -- will be flown from Baghdad to Vienna, seat of the International Atomic Energy Agency and to New York.

There it will be handed for screening to the U.N. Monitoring and Verification Inspection Commission, known as UNMOVIC, which is headed by chief weapons inspector Hans Blix.

"Now this will take a little bit of time," said Blix, who gave no date for the release of the declaration.

Both UNMOVIC and the IAEA, headed by Mohamed ElBaradei, will scan the material to see which parts should be held from public view and then reproduce it for transmission to council members.

If Baghdad is found to be in "material breach" of the U.N. resolution, it could set the stage for a military attack on Iraq by the United States and its allies.

Diplomats said it could take a week before the 15 Security Council members including the United States are able to get a copy. Others said it might take 10 days to analyze.

Cytek - So they don't havd weapons but the Doc is 10,000 pages, wonder if it was written in arabic. Hmmm, this could be good for the POG, it will build a new base above 325 for a few days and then breach 330 or more once they find out the 10,000 pages is "Moby Dick" in arabic.

SidehillOne eyeball above the lilly pads.#9094812/06/02; 19:43:33

I've learned a great deal lurking this forum and I would like to contribute. My experience lies mainly in prospecting, claim staking, surveying, and ground magnetic surveys, for a major in Nevada. Lode only, no placer or mom and pop. I can help with questions on these topics.

The Feds intention to monetize assets to prevent deflation has generated a lot of comment on this board. A couple of articles posted have specifically mentioned monetization of gold mines. What would be the purpose and effect?

I have another question that is kind of off topic from the general type of post I see on USAGOLD. Is there a forum that discusses gold mining exploration activity in the US mountain west; Nevada in particular? Or is there a site where I could pose a question about a gold property submittal, i.e. advice so I don't get hosed?

Thanks also to MK and TC, and to BB and other USAGOLD contributors for their fine commentary and advice on monetary and gold economics.

AristotleWhat is Gold? For Sir ge#9094912/06/02; 19:43:59

"the answer to the question whether gold is money or not depends on the political orientation." --- ge #90924

I think your comment makes a great soundbite, but it undersells the vast level of understanding of historical development that factors into a truly well-founded and well-reasoned position on the matter -- as apart from a one-off romantic opinion.

Let me start small in order to avoid the mistake of forcing anything resembling my own position/opinion on you or anyone else. In other words, in laying out my case I won't attempt to define money, but rather will leave that up to your own understanding of what money is as aided by a few of my practical, real-world reminders of its everyday common use.

Can we all agree that Gold is Gold? Hey, why not just stop this whole mess right there? Let's all discard this "Gold is money" rubbish by switching to this new battle cry: "Gold is Gold!"

Gold is Gold. Does it really HAVE to BE anything ELSE?

It IS fair to call it "property" (or "wealth") because that isn't changing the nature of the Gold. In other words, it isn't saying that Gold is copper, or that Gold is an engine, or that Gold is heat. It merely admits that Gold is among the list of tangible items in the world. So far so good?

An engine is property. Would you ever say that an engine is money? You could try. In fact, some of you are well practiced at it from doing the same business regarding Gold.

Why is an engine money? Why is Gold money? C'mon now... are they REALLY???

While not defining it for you, let me paint a picture that maybe you can recognize as a living, breathing part of our real world. "Money" is that special name we've given to mankind's nifty little invention of accounting by which our rewards and our obligations have been "unit-ized" and thus made highly liquid and negotiable -- easily deliverable to another person even in another place.

In effect, the creation of this system of "money" -- by monetizing our rewards and obligations (i.e., credits abd debts) into portable, transferrable numerical units represented by the likes of checkbooks, Federal Reserve notes, and token coins from the mint -- has placed in limbo the very essence and meaning of "payment in full" as would otherwise require the immediate rendering/delivery of a tangible service or good. Another name for that system of payment in full would be "barter."

Dollars, pesos, euros, yen, marks, rubles... these are all names we've variously given to our monetary units in our international system of money. To be sure, some systems have weathered the elements better than others, just like some brands of tools rust, wear and break faster than others. You can call a hammer money, but that doesn't make it money. And just because Gold can be made to look and act like a hammer, doesn't mean Gold IS a hammer. Nor is it money -- because Gold doesn't exist in LIMBO. Gold is IN YOUR FACE real stuff -- property.

If you've set up a limbo payment plan whereby you've sold your house to somebody whose agreed to give you monthly Gold payments, that still doesn't make Gold money. In such an example, Gold would participate only as the *currency* in settling the installments of the monetary limbo payment plan.

Is that what some of these Gold-Money people really want? If so, they are woefully ill-versed in the negative consequences that this would have for the good and fair valuation of real Gold owned outright as the prefered alternative. I've written a large commentary detailing that previously, so I won't bore anyone with that again here.

When you go to work on Monday, are you paid Monday, or do you have to wait 'til Friday? And if you ARE paid Monday, are you paid minute by minute throughout the day, or must you wait until the end of the day to collect your reward? And is your reward tangible, or must you spend it elsewhere in order to receive VALUE?

Now do you have a sense of what money is? Whatever money (limbo) is, Gold ain't it. Gold is real, Gold is right now, Gold is property, Gold is value, Gold is Gold.

Gold. Get you some, and you won't be vexed as money loses purchasing power through time. --- Aristotle

CytekBush Eyes Former Goldman Exec for Economic Job #9095012/06/02; 19:50:09

Cytek - Wonder if there is any stuff (poop) on Friedman. Here is his Bio.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Former Goldman Sachs Chairman Stephen Friedman is likely to replace Lawrence Lindsey as President Bush's top economic adviser, administration officials said on Friday.

Stephen Friedman

Friedman is currently a senior principal at Marsh & McLennan Capital, Inc., and a limited partner of Goldman, Sachs & Co. New York. He was senior chairman of Goldman, Sachs from 1994 to 1997, co-chairman or sole Chairman from 1990 to 1994, and co-chief operating officer from 1987 to 1990. He joined Goldman, Sachs in 1966 after serving as a law clerk to a Federal District Judge and as an attorney in New York. He attended Cornell University and Columbia Law School.

Friedman is the chairman of the board of trustees of Columbia University, the chairman of the executive committee of The Brookings Institution, and a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research and the Concord Coalition. He also serves on the executive committee of the board of managers at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and as a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and The Trilateral Commission. In addition, Friedman is a director of FannieMae, Wal-Mart and Risk Capitol Holdings.

Cavan ManSidehill#9095112/06/02; 20:15:45

There are friends of X-Cal (XCL) lurking about. Contact company via web site.
Gandalf the WhiteWELCOME Sir Sidehill !!! Great to have you posting now !#9095212/06/02; 20:49:04

Sidehill (12/06/02; 19:43:33MT - msg#: 90948)
One eyeball above the lilly pads.
"Come on up" and get the other eyeball above the lily pads too. I suggest that you please start the educational input without specific names that "may be considered" to be ADVERTISING !! Start with a "story" maybe ? You and Black Blade can conduct a SEMINAR on exploration and I can tell you about things that are "impossible" in the area of mineralization, but TRUE.

Black BladeGold Derivatives: Moving towards Checkmate#9095312/06/02; 21:07:40

Good article on gold derivatives worth reading. Much of it is a rehash but it ties the story together in a nice neat package. Enjoy!

- Black Blade

TopazGold defines Wealth, NOT Money.#9095412/06/02; 21:20:54

How fasinating to find ourselves here at this point in history where, for a number of quite plausable reasons, those that manage World monetary affairs have created a once in a lifetime opportunity.
We can today, on one hand, be financially indebted to the eyeballs where one move in the wrong direction can bankrupt us - and on the other, through anonomus acquisition, be independently wealthy with Physical Gold in hand... completely divorced from our other "on-the-edge" activities.

Don't make light of this situation as it WILL NOT last much longer.

Black BladeRe: Sidehill - Exploration Web Site?#9095512/06/02; 21:30:15

I am unaware of any web site that specifically discusses mineral exploration much less that centered in Nevada. I have thought that developing such a web site would have been an excellent project. A few years ago such a public board was proposed by a web site sponsor of "free public web sites", however, when put to a vote of the community at large, the wave of rabid "environmentalist" proponents came out of the woodwork to vote the idea down (along with many rude, obscene and absurb comments). Apparently free specch and freedom of association only extends to those with like ideas according to the radical left. Considering the large number of people that did vote in favor it would have likely had a fairly substantial membership of participants. It would be easier these days as the web has expanded beyond anyones imagination and most everything and anything is discussed.

BTW, I have worked on several Nevada exploration projects myself (majors and juniors). Perhaps we know some of the same people. I know of a couple of posters who occasionally drop in who know some of the same people as I do in the exploration business. I also know of at least a couple of dozen or so who work in exploration or have worked in exploration in Nevada who also lurk here occasionally.

I know that a couple of the other gold forums discuss mining and exploration projects on occasion. Anyway, if you do find such a web site devoted to the exploration business be sure to pass it along (as long as it is not a "competitor" of course out of respect for our host).

Cheers and welcome aboard!

- Black Blade

sectorCabinet Terminations -- Behind-the -scenes#9095612/06/02; 21:43:38

Why and Why now?

Everybody has a take on the O'Neill/Lindsay terminations.

My broker says political but I'm not buying that reason. There are ways to move in Washington power circles and dumping cabinet guys two days before a war-precipitating, geopolitical ultimatum isn't one of them.

Bill Murphy said as much in tonight's cafe Midas.

The SEC post, SECTREAS and econ Advisor all empty and the suggested replacements are policy clones of the replaced. If the Prez pops these acolytes in then we get more of the same "Strong Dollar" stuff. But there may be more to it...

I think these guys may have been fired because the President got mad at them over policy issues..."Strong Dollar" policy issues and someone goaded him into doing something he rarely does...act impulsively. Find who met with the President recently on economic "Policy" issues and you may find the next SECTREAS.

Peter Fischer's depressing speech in Columbus, Ohio on November 14th [ O'Neill was surely gone but didn't know it at that time] may offer a clue. Fischer rambled on about a $26 Trillion debt, of all things. He is Mr. Gold bagman and knows the whole truth and nothing but the truth about manipulation and the "Strong Dollar".

Suppose he looked in the crystal ball and realized it just can't work anymore? Who better to beat a retreat from the "Strong Dollar"?

So if Mr. Fischer gets a high-ranking Whit House position we may have a hint at what's to come.

TrapperSirs Black Blade and Nation#9095712/06/02; 21:46:01

Why would we expect any less from the 9th circus court.I would make a joke about clowns but why demean a clown.
Most people think that Ashcroft was fisrt to declare the second adm. was not a collective right but that not exactly correct. In the mid 1980's the senate did a large comission on the subject and found out, "suprise", the same thing. There is a report published on it that you can call and get from your congressman. All the originals are long since gone but reprints are avaible. If anyone is interested let me know and I will dig mine out and get the correct title so you can order one. Orin Hatch was the chairman and it was mixed 50% dems & repubs it was pretty good with lots of original publications, letters, and notes sited.
WE must remember that none of the bill of rights grants us any rights, i.e. if the first was repealed do belive we could not worship or have any speech. All that is mentioned is limits upon govt., and the second says exactly how much restrictions are allowed to be placed upon the people...none! Well live small my friends and pray we are not required to water that liberty tree.

Black BladeGas Shortage May Loom#9095812/06/02; 21:48:32


HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 6, 2002--With U.S. natural gas production rates in decline, strong winter demand could trigger a shortage that spikes gas prices and creates a crisis, warns Matthew Simmons in the new issue of World Energy magazine. The well-known energy investment banker and researcher who heads Simmons & Company International builds his case on information developed when he headed the National Petroleum Council's Demand Task Force, plus subsequent research of Texas Railroad Commission figures by Simmons & Company. Since Texas' drilling boom ended in 2001, Simmons says, "There is no way Texas gas supply can grow," and that some observers "now worry that gas supplies might fall by 5 to 7 percent by the end of 2002." Also discussing energy supplies, Harry Longwell, director and executive vice president of Exxon Mobil Corporation, writes that another 80 million barrels of oil equivalent/day must be found to meet global demand by 2010.

Black Blade: As I have said, we are will see an energy crisis of the likes never seen before. It is an absolute certainty. I am still compiling info on this and so far the evidence is staggering. Yet this has been below Wall Street's radar and few have taken notice.

a nation of oneRe: Black Blade (12/06/02; 13:26:57MT - msg#: 90930)#9095912/06/02; 22:16:48

Thanks for the information.
Black Blade"The Barbarous Relic Files" - King Lobengula's Gold Necklace Disappears#9096012/06/02; 23:01:48


POLICE in Bulawayo have instituted investigations into the disappearance from the Natural History Museum of Zimbabwe of a gold necklace and two other items belonging to the last Ndebele monarch, King Lobengula, last week amid claims that museum officials are the prime suspects. The disappearance of the items comes exactly two years after the theft from the same museum of a One Thousand Guinea Gold Trophy valued at US$50 million. One of the stolen items was a priceless gold watch that had belonged to a pioneer missionary, the Reverend Robert Moffat. Sources in the museum told the Zimbabwe Independent that it was impossible to break into the museum considering the tight security in place.

Black Blade: Sure is a lot of noise over a bunch of mere "barbarous relics". Hmmm…

geYes, I am a romantic, but I would vote for gold standard if I had a vote!#9096112/7/02; 02:12:29

Sir Aristotle

I agree with you that gold is a commodity and when you own it, it becomes your property.

Tension arises when the following question is asked: How should the monetary system be designed? This looks like a political question to me.

In the 19th century, proposing a gold standard which limits the money creation power of the government would align you with Adam Smith and laissez-faire. This would also dampen the asset bubbles and the following depressions.

You are right in calling me a romantic, because, currently, there are at least three or four entities (US, EU, China, Russia) bidding for total world domination, and no one can stop them now. All of them see themselves just only one step away from being the "Master of the Universe". The monetary system of the world would shape according to the results of this power struggle. One of them may emerge as the sole superpower and impose its own paper money. Personally, I expect this to resemble the 30 years war between Habsburgs, Danes, French and Swedes in which no party managed to win.

Meanwhile, the heat increases as they have just set the controls for the heart of the sun.

Best regards,

BelgianGold-Wealth and money.....#9096212/07/02; 02:27:02

Allow me to see it the Euroland way :
The euro-currency has Gold-Wealth in its vaults. The euro desires this wealth, to be traded as freely as possible. Each quarter, all the euro are pricing (mark to market) all the Gold-Wealth. If the euro desires to be closer to its Gold-Wealth...the euro is exchanged for more Gold-Wealth.
The euro is getting stronger by being closer associated with more Gold-Wealth. The euro gains in *representing* more Gold-wealth.

If the euro desires to go further away from its Gold-wealth, it starts proliferating (devaluing) and this is reflected in less Gold-Wealth for more euro.

We have Free Gold when a currency's Gold-wealth-spine can fluctuate in tonnes of physical Gold, against the changing amount of currency in circulation . This automatically sets a different price for the Gold-wealth.

In one eye one sees the amount of physical Gold-wealth and in the other one sees the changing amounts of currency that wishes to represent more or less money.

A "currency" is more or less "money" as soon as it can straightly be associated with more or less "Physical-Gold-wealth" in proportions.

The goldstandard from 30 years ago, re-designed and closer to perfection.

When each currency would be able to manage the relationship between its physical Gold-wealth (goldreserves) and its representative currency...we are out of the woods. No Gold is No money. Less Gold for more currency is less money. More Gold for less currency is more money. Then we could speak again about rich and poor nations... about strong and weak currencies...about much or little money.

Where are we standing now ? Look around and see wich currencies are accumulating Gold-wealth. See wich currency wants its Gold-wealth to be priced more freely than the fixed gold-standard pricing. See wich currency wishes to stop one-way goldsales (WA). Much of this is euro-related.

Yes, the endless competitive currency devaluation is as destructive as can be on a very wide variety of aspects, economically and even socially. The re-installment of the notions and relationships of Gold-wealth > currency > money
is desperately needed ! One can't navigate without standards...beakons that are flexible as to move with the coming and going sandbanks.

The more that the role of Gold-wealth is purposely ignored...the more, independant individuals go on their own Gold standard, intuitively. That makes available Gold less and less available for physical trade and finally, un-manageable.

We had 3 standards in a row : Gold > oil > dollar. On what standard are we now ? On a mixed one of some Gold, some oil and lots of dollars ? Confusing isn't it ?
All 3 pieces of standard are absolutely unfree and must live under an omnipotent growing, authority. No happy end for sure.

We don't need Gold, because we evolve from confetti to full digits (plastic)!? Another big step away from the necessary
association of these digits with a standard worth. What are your or mine digit representing ? OK let's have a fight about this and see if we come to an agreement. Yeah sure, that's probably the highest form of civilized behavior in wich the human specy is supposed to differ from his origins ?

No Belgian, your confetti/digit is worth or representing the total, worth of all the goods and services/resources they are producing ! Is that so ? No it isn't ! THAT'S THE RISING PROBLEM WE ARE PRESENTLY STUCKED WITH !
Oil says it is more important than anything else and soon the Asian producers will claim more real appreciation for what they are offering. Real things desire real wealth in exchange... sooner or later !

Hopefully to be continued....

BelgianGREAT POSTING SIR GE #90961#9096312/07/02; 02:43:02

And, please Sir, can we have plenty more of this !?

Yes, there will be (can't be) no winner, but certainly there must be a loser !? Any idea wich currency will be the least ***representing*** money (intrinsic value) ? Thanks ge.

geSir Belgian, Thank you very much for your kind words#9096412/7/02; 04:03:24

Speaking of currencies, dollar is now being devalued. Japanese look hopeless. Therefore, a mix of Euro's and Swiss Francs seems inevitable. Now I wonder, shall this devaluation end the currency war, or is this just a tactical battle? US is getting ready for a high oil price, where the price tag is in dollars only. Of course EU and China would strike back in some ways I cannot think of now… And it goes on… After everything is done and finished, Hollywood could make excellent films out these!
Belgian@ ge (the romantic) #90924#9096512/7/02; 04:16:45

In your excellent post #90924...
...while an international balance of power leads to an international gold standard.
***WHAT*** standard, Sir...on ***WHO's*** terms ? Remember Kemp suggesting to bring POG up to the fixed price (again) of 320$ !!!-??? No such old fashioned standard for me Sir.
It is the euro who desires the REAL thing and the dollar wishes to stick to the old stuff.
Yes indeed...An almost "hysterical antagonism" toward the gold standard is one issue wich unites statists of all pursuations. No more so, Sir.

True, when they fight about the old, unworkable, standard, easy to falsify (manipulate-mismanage).
Worse, when real Free Gold is on the rails, unilaterally. This is in my very humble opinion, the main reason why A/FOA's thoughts are echoed NOWHERE...publicly !

Belgian@ ge#9096612/7/02; 04:35:36

Not only the dollar but ALL currencies do devalue PERMANENTLY ! The differences are only in the fact of *how much* is allowed to be seen and felt (inflala) by the public and trading-partners ! Currency's exchange rates and purchasing powers A LA CARTE ! Just order the waiter what you want and pay for it with a medium at your convience of the moment. This is what the present global trade is all about.
Inflate/deflate at one's convenience, time and time again just up until any medicine resorts any effect/result anymore.

One can only question if the euro-concept shall and is able, to go it alone and how far. When and to what extend will and desire other blocks to co-operate in unison or keep on fighting ? The euro, dollar and yen can jump into the depreciation-pool all together...but wich one has an inflatable life-jacket ...and will float ? I don't want to make any choice/bet and simply go for the personal Golden lifejacket, plain and simple.

Have we jumped already...? If yes, who's (what currency)floating and who's sinking ?

The Invisible HandFOA vs. US national pride#9096712/7/02; 05:10:49

sector argued in (11/21/02; 21:42:21MT - msg#: 90075)
Peter Fischer and the Wolf...- ...of inflation
referring to Russell's column which itself referred to Peter Fisher saying "forget timing. forget picking the T* date, we aren't that good, only the Fed knows the day".

Yesterday he seemed to be arguing in
sector (12/06/02; 21:43:38MT - msg#: 90956)
Cabinet Terminations -- Behind-the –scenes - Why and Why now?
that the T* date is very close.

In his message of Thursday, December 5, 2002, GATA's chairman, Bill Murphy sounded excited about Reg Howe's study, using data from the Bank for International Settlements and charting by GATA consultant Mike Bolser, concluding that the central bank short position in gold is far larger than acknowledged or widely estimated. The reason why Murphy was excited is that the study was the only talk in town in the towns of Zurich and London.

The gist of the sector/Fisher argument seems to be that something very bad is in store for the US dollar. This is what A/FOA have always told us, i.e. that the dollar is at the end of its position as world reserve currency and that the euro has the ambition to dethrone the dollar and has to that effect its gold reserves which are marked to market on a quarterly basis and which can no longer be sold in an unlimited way since the Washington Agreement of September 1999, that the euro wants to knuckle down the dollar by having the paper contract gold market explode in order that the rising gold price be associated with the rising euro.

The euro wants gold priced in euros and no longer in dollars. That's why the dollar has been led to the gold trap. This is the gold-paper-contract-trap which Howe/GATA, blinded as they are by antitrust law (BTW, have antitrust laws anything to do with GATA's recent optimism?), do not want to accept. It is apparently national pride that prevents GATA from moving past the short position.

It looks as though A/FOA's outline is completely out of touch with reality and this one day after O’Neill's resignation precisely demonstrates that the DOLLAR is(t) KAPUT.

FOA has been ostracized as the physical gold Taliban. Why? National pride? Or is sector going to suffer the same fate as ORO who, when he tried to draw the attention to the dollar's imminent demise, forced himself to leave this Forum?

goldenpeaceHaiku for *T* date#9096812/7/02; 05:32:48

blue dusk,crescent moon;
ducks fleeing across this sky.
Fear sends man to gold

Oh, J.P.Morgan,
J.P.Morgan, who are you?
shorn of gold, no hope


BelgianWMD#9096912/7/02; 07:07:37

Is *Crude Oil*, possibly, becoming the strongest weapon of destruction for our entire global peace and prosperity ?
I am afraid it might !

Why can't oil flow, peacefully, into a globalized economy at the benefit of a great majority of people. We are so concerned about our environment...why don't we show as much care and attention for all resources ? Even if we leave any ideology beside...there must be a more practical way to handle the growing oil-problem, without violence.

I am not suggesting that the distribution of Gold to a tiny fraction of oil-producers s going to solve the problem.
But Gold back into a new relation with a particular currency OR A BASKET OF CURRENCIES, could solve many un-balances in the global oil AND RESOURCES domains in particular and global exploitations in general!

Where are all those wise academics with their great theories ? What are we paying them for ?

An indignated student on a saturday afternoon.

PH in LAWondering about Invisible Hand's message: Just what is invisible here?#9097012/7/02; 07:57:00


Your post (12/7/02; 05:10:49MT - msg#: 90967) threatens to leave much scratching of heads among readers of this forum.

You write, "It looks as though A/FOA's outline is completely out of touch with reality and this one day after O’Neill's resignation precisely demonstrates that the DOLLAR is(t) KAPUT".

Can you clarify just exactly you are trying to say here with such a contradictory remark? How you think that O'Neill's resignation demonstrating that the dollar is kaput in any way corraborates A/FOA's outline being out of touch with reality?

And while you're at it: ORO never tried to draw any attention to the dollar's imminent demise. On the contrary; the ORO that I remember was forced to withdraw when he opposed the FOA premise of the dollar's eventual demise and was unable to prove his points with intellectual argument, eventually resorting to personal attacks and insults.

And please explain what you mean by: "FOA has been ostracized as the physical gold Taliban". The FOA that I remember was never ostracized around here. In fact, his vision has seemed more penetrating every day, as we have watched gold rise inexorably even as the dollar sinks against the euro.

Your own credibility will be called into question, Sir, if you allow such muddled and internally contradictory remarks to remain on this board without clarification.

Kodie(No Subject)#9097112/7/02; 08:03:05

Test ...
geConversations#9097212/7/02; 08:27:12

Belgian msg#: 90965

***WHAT*** standard, Sir...on ***WHO's*** terms ?
Well, Mr. Market's standard at Mr. Market's rates obviously. Otherwise, we would be repeating Churchill's mistake at the end of the First World War. I do not know what the free market value of gold is, but have a feeling that it could be quite high. What would be the effect of the opening of Chinese market to gold? What would be the effect of Malaysian method of settling international trade balances by gold? Also there is the problem of dollar float!

Belgian msg#: 90966

who's (what currency)floating and who's sinking ?
Obviously dollar is now being devalued.

I don't want to make any choice/bet and simply go for the personal Golden lifejacket, plain and simple.
Yes sir.

Belgian msg#: 90969

Why can't oil flow, peacefully, into a globalized economy at the benefit of a great majority of people?
I wish I knew, especially since war is now coming to a theatre near to me.

Cavan Man@ PH in LA#9097312/7/02; 08:32:02

I am happy to know I wasn't the only one scratching my head as I couldn't make head nor tails out of that one.

It is the dollar's valuation that officialdom is targeting. It is the dollar's valuation that is being defended at any and all costs. Gold is simply a means to an end. Therefore, the POG must be managed and kept at bay. This is (obviously) not new. POG has been "managed" for most of the last century. If the dollar is defeated (which I believe is inevitable there will be many bad financial and economic outcomes. These we all would like to avoid.

Why does the BIS continue to play this game? I think the answer is, they MUST. After all, they have been playing this game they invented for a long time. It is still the only game in town. What the BIS et al have though that we do not have (apparently anyway) is a contingency plan called the EURO. With EURO and a free gold price they have a place to run and hide, lick their wounds and re-group when the levee breaks.

So, what will finish the dollar? I believe it willl be the gold derivatives. If the gold derivative market blows up the dollar and IRD's and all the rest blows up. What will be the outcome(s). It won't be a pretty sight you can bet on that. Is this scenario inevitable? I think so. Are Central Bankers all over the world including the BIS trying to navigate around the looming "troubles". You bet. Central Bankers are very rational beings. Their (excluding the FED) participation in the so called "cabal" is a necessity. Remember though, they have a contingency plan.

Got (gold) a contingency plan? Kind regards...CM

knotakarea sad day for America#9097412/7/02; 08:51:40

yesterday's firings of Bush Economic advisors should be a messaage to all US$ investors, that the nation's solvency is no longer a concern for this nation's President; and their best bet is to head for the exits.

On the monetary front we have the Fed announcing their one-sided approach to fight the Deflation monster. And now on the fiscal front, we have the Bush Administration pushing tax cuts at a time when productive capacity utilization is in the low 70% range, and therefore what we need is not more investment, but to repair the nation's impaired balance sheet.

What the US does have is a military capable of expropriating valueable, trade related assets such as oil, and precious metals (Africa), from other countries. This is one capability that you fans of the Euro do not have. So I am not a fan of the US$, Euro or any other currency. What we have is impaired balance sheets thoughout almost every nation in the world. A worldwide devaluation, is in my mind theorectically possible.

The political implications of yesterday's firings are very dire for all US citizens. It points to the urgent need to protect our wealth, because our government is out of control, and will seek to expropriate our wealth to keep its military industrial complex alive and well.

regards from Wisconsin,


mikalFederal Reserve Bank Governor's recent admissions#9097512/7/02; 09:07:46

"Like gold, US dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the US government has a technology, called a printing press.....that allow it to produce as many US dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost..."
-BEN BERNANKE, Fed Governor

sector@Invisible Hand -- It doesn't seem that complicated#9097612/7/02; 09:09:17

I can't speak for FOA on the dollar's future

However, the abrupt firings of O'Neill and Lindsay do suggest a problem developed with the policies they were implementing that required a swift, out-of-character, impulsive Presidential move. The single policy most associated with Lawrence Lindsay is the Strong Dollar Policy. There could be simple politics behind all this but why the Friday dramatics? Ahead of the Iraq ultimatum deadline?

As you are well aware, the strong dollar is a policy first begun by Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers by suppressing the gold price, buying 30 year bonds [To further mask inflation by keeping its intrest rate low] and creating the $3 Trillion GSE mortgage pool with the monetized proceeds. That policy seems to have run its course because thinking investors are on to the Fed's process of financial obfuscation.

Whether or not the Euro will now assume the world's reserve currency remains to be seen. There has been recently, a curious synchronization of Euro, Dollar and Yen at 125. Perhaps all three will be moved in synchrony downward against the Eastern currencies in a kind of aggregated, hemispherical devaluation. There really are no easy exits left.

Speculation is such fun when one already has gold as a foundation.

As for the new SECTREAS, Peter Fischer's landing spot should be watched carefully. He has been a go-to guy in the gold scam and his curiously morose Columbus, Ohio speech has something to do with the shakeup since he must have known then about it.

IF there is to be a change in the Strong Dollar policy it can't be implemented before a new SECTREAS and econ advisor are in place. Moreover, it cannot occur, in my view, before a smoke-screen media cover [Iraq war] has begun in earnest.

The central banks have sold at least half of their treasury's gold to aide and stabilize the dollar but now the investment world knows it and is in the process of absorbing the implications and assessing their options. This spells even more drain on central bank gold especially after the Fed's bravado-laced, "Printing press" Novemeber speechs by Bernanke.

We can't know the exact T* capitulation date but we do have the freedom to act beforehand and quietly wait with that most valuable of all traits, patience.

Cavan ManPS to PH USAG 90973#9097712/7/02; 09:10:09

The recent FED Governor's speech is affirmation of the essayist's view that monetary policy will support the USD "system" with a "whatever it takes", "all hands on deck" approach.

Who said the FED could buy a gold mine? The answer is Alan Greenspan. Under the most adverse of monetary circumstances, define "buy". When could the gold derivative pyramid collapse? I think the answer is anytime and that is evidenced by this bill going thru the House which looks to be simple indemnification for issuers of derivatives. That piece of legislation is a big red flag IMHO.

Let's hope Sinclair is right and that this gold bull market will continue to rise strongly and steadily and not all at once in a general panic. If panic, then, all bets are off. If no panic, then, physical gold and unhedged miners including Xcellent jrs. in the right neighborhood are one of the best investments in insurance and capital appreciation one can make.

Having watched this market for 3.5 years everyday I don't think, barring a panic, we're going back to south of where we're trading at now. The future is bright.

Cavan Manmikal#9097812/7/02; 09:15:00

I don't understand the linkage between the "limited in supply" and "printing press" remarks. He seems to contradict himself. The concept of "no cost" to produce has no bearing on the valuation of the dollar IMO.
CometoseFUTURE AND THE PAST#9097912/7/02; 09:30:22

It is clear that the political leadership of the US and it associates in the Economic/financial sector ( for some time) has lost its way. Leadership and direction should and of need have to be deeply rooted in a identity with the past (ITS ROOTS). Decisions for Americans and for America should be made with a long term horizon in mind.....looking in to the future 200 years.....Decisions rooted in the past heritage and looking toward the best interest of AMERICA's image and her people 200 years into the future are based on stability and strength......

These things have not been done..because our leaders have learned that their success is based on numbers on their balance sheets....and the decisions that they have made have been with a shorter view in mind (less than 200 years) and without respect to the roots that brought us our feedom to make bad decisions...

The U S has a sound foundation in the Declaration and Bill of Rights....written by me who were very well rooted in Foundations of Repubicanism/ Democracy and Spiritual Foundation of FREEDOM/Faith .......Those are our ROOTS...
ROOts that were paid for with the BLOOD and SACRED HONOR of
MANY MEN AND WOMEN through 2000 years of HISTORY....THERE were many things that are in SACRED WRITINGS that were codified into law and then on that LAW was based the Foundations of THE UNITES STATES of AMERICA.
What was the purpose of AMERICA......ALABASTER CITIES GLEAM has to do with a LIGHT...HELPING THE LIGHT get around the world and GIVING the WORLD A SHOT OF SOMETHING SPECIAL...
IT wasn't about money or making numbers ; it was about something bigger.....It was about something SPIRITUAL...America has a SPIRITUAL PURPOSE and DESTINY..
MOST MINISTERS can't tell you what that is because they don't know .....It was thier job to make sure that our leaders (political and financial /economic) preserved integrity in both arenas so AMERICA can keep serving up that PURPOSE.

In their haste to ammass fortunes in the short term without respect to standards for which stability and integrity live in Politics and the ECONOMY , they have made decisions based on short term gain...and in which the integrity and the stability of our Economy has been sacrificed which sacrifice is also undermining the integrity of the CONSTITUTION and the BILL of RIGHTS.

THE REST OF THE WORLD LOOKS ON at the growth of the tree that was planted here 2 century's ago and they behold the FRUIT .....THe greatest sampling of what we are producing in AMerica the land of the FREE and Home of the BRAVE is what is being served up on Television....THe fruit tells where the ROOTS are getting their nourishment from .....

AMerica has an identity problem because it doesn't know its purpose and those in postions of authority are proving this by the decisions they have made... In so doing they dishonored our ancestors....and put is in and unenviable postion, globally....We have lost our way because we lost touch with our roots..(the fruit we now manifest indicate that our roots are in GREED and covetousness which has gong unchecked for day a weeek in church has not been enough to promote the truth or to keep unbridled greed (a major component in our society) locked in its stall)...THE ones that got us here....and our purpose.....ENSURE THE REPUBLIC to enable our SPIRITUAL purpose to actualize..... THE MINISTERS DIDN"T DO THIER JOB and now the CHILDREN they failed to teach are navigating without and heading.....running our economy and our republic.

IF PRESIDENT BUSH who has based his approach on Support of UN Security COuncil goes into IRAQ without the support of the UN....based on UN discovery in IRAQ , it will be further proof to the world that (someone said it would be indicative of ROGUE Nation status) THE US CONSTITUTION AND BILL OF RIGHTS are now working for CORPORATE SPECIAL interests and that these intersts are higher than WHAT THE US is supposed to represent to the WORLD. THe world perception of these events is now unfolding ....AMERIca's problems are here not out there somewhere....THe cures to our illness are not in Imperialism , they are in cleaning our own house......and it doesn't start by the firings that occured yesterday....BY replacing trusted advisors with yes men who will do anything required to get George reelected....
DOES ANYONE get it that there's something illegal with interfering with the markets in the US and using the
That is why the pole conducted by CNBC THursday showed 48% in favor of GOLD ...... That is why the dollar is going down .....and in spite of whatever plan the coconspirators have in favor of Bouyed STOCK MARKET.....the world is going to buy GOLD and sell the US STOCK MARKETS...and other DOLLAR denominated assets.....FURTHER acts of Stupidity are going to grow the fruit of RESENTMENT overseas and cost AMERICAN LIVES........THE COST to AMERICANS IS GOING TO widespread disappoinment and RESENTEMENT IN AMERICA....toward the elected officials who are carrying out myriad plans now to cover previous mistakes....

I don't know about the rest of you here at the forum or the rest of my fellow citizens but I percieve as the insanity continues to unfold that I am getting less and less protection for the protection mooney I pay the government for ....the value of my currency is eroding and my military can't keep me taken care of .....and there is no hope coming here from OUTER SPACE to fix all this POOPICAH....
THE HELP already was sent on CHRISTMAS 2000 years ago ....
and what we did with those promises and the chance we had is epitomized by the monument of GREED we have turned AMERICA into....IF we want to change it ....and make it better.....we are going to need to go back to our roots find our purpose and carry it out that purpose .......
and greed is going to have to take a back seat to that purpose and the implementation of that purpose...

RockPizz .....I was too hard on ONeill!#9098012/7/02; 10:05:14

Sorry Knights and Delights and mainly Mr. O'Neill. I jumped the gun on my knee jerk reaction yesterday after hearing O'Neill resigned by calling the guy a coward for heading for the exits, then again who would want that job?

I attribute quick my negative response to continual deception from Wall Street, abuse from Corporate Executives, the 24/7 infomercials in CNBC better known as SWAK BOX and a host of others who have lied, cheated and stole from the sheeple.

Now I know that Bush gave O'Neill and Lindsley the big ax. Well what do you expect? If a football team has a losing season you can almost guarantee that coach is gone. I guess as simple as the analogy may be its the same with the biggest US Government occupation on the planet better known as the economy. Hey, when unemployment is getting ready to shoot through the roof and everything else is beginning to fall apart Bush had to produce a few scalps in order to save his own. If for no other reason to let the sheeple know he's doing something.

Like someone said yesterday, can anyone really step up and change this mess? You heard it said that gold is the last real-estate and I'm glad I got me some. Real-estae is topping out anyway so your not going to make much profit on a resale. This forum has keep me motivated when I needed encouragement to stay dug in to my principles and goals concerning precious metals.

A few years ago here at the castle I wrote about a man who changed the course of my life and he got me thinking in terms of the same ideas expressed here at the castle. It was in 1998 at Church on the Rock in New Haven Connecticut that one Peter J. Daniels came to our church all the way from Australia to speak for one day and three nights on the future of America and the world.

The guy is absolutely brilliant. The one thing that stands out in my mind after his speech almost five years ago was when he said gold would reach $40,000 an ounce within 10 years. According to Mr. Daniels the time clock is winding down with five years left. And I can hear the grumbling under the earth, I can see the smoke billowing out of those ancient volcano's and regarding the global financial landscape, the signs are here for all to see yet how many will act? We can observe the signs of the seasons and we can discern the weather yet we cannot discern the signs of the times.

When you have Doppler radar indicating that a huge storm is approaching most people will prepare but many will sit idle and do nothing. Well, the same is happening regarding the economy and we do have the makings for the perfect storm.

Batten down the hatches, get your financial house in order, tough times are ahead in deed. Those with the vision are the ones who will suffer minimal loss. And remember what BlackBlades been saying, get some non-perishables, store some extra cash for a few months, get out of debt to the best of your ability and it wouldn't hurt to get some form of physical protection just for peace of mind. God Bless.



ArcticfoxThis could present a problem...#9098112/7/02; 10:29:38


Saddam Has Nukes, Ex-Weapons Inspector Says

A former U.N. weapons inspector who was renowned for his ability to ferret out Iraqi weapons violations during the late 1990's charged point blank on Thursday that Saddam Hussein now has nuclear weapons.

mikalFed Governor Ben Bernanke elaborates Federal Reserve Bank "rationales", calms critics, tips off global insiders! #9098212/07/02; 11:23:20

"I am confidant that the Fed would take whatever means necessary to prevent significant deflation in the United States.....Sector-specific price declines, uncomfortable as they may be for producers in that sector, are generally not a problem for the economy as a whole and do not constitute deflation. Deflation per se occurs only when price declines are so widespead that broad-based indexes of prices, such as the consumer price index, register ongoing declines.....
Like gold, US dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the US government has a technology, called a printed press (or, today its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many US dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threaatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services....
The Fed can inject money into the economy in still other ways. For example, the Fed has the authority to buy foreign government debt, as well as domestic government debt...
Each of the policy options I have discussed so far involves the Fed acting on its own. In practice, the effectiveness of anti-deflation policy could be significantly enhanced by cooperation between the monetary & fiscal authorities. A broad-based tax cut, for example, accomodated by a program of open-market purchases to alleviate any tendency for interest rates to increase, would certainlly be an effective stimulant to consumption and hence to prices.... Of course, in lieu of tax cuts or increases in transfers, the government could increase spending on current goods and services or even acquire existing real or financial assets..."

Sierra MadreBernanke is an economics quack...#9098312/07/02; 11:47:31

Sorry to say so, but Fed. Governor Ben Bernanke cannot be defined as anything else but an economics quack.

Apparently, no one in positions of responsibility and power over U.S. economic policy, has a clue about what has gone wrong and what to do. These things do happen; when things go wrong on as enormous a scale as the whole U.S. economy, for decade after decade, there comes a moment when the situation is not recoverable. There is no solution. The ship is going down, period. At that point, quacks come along and prescribe this or that remedy.

Like a quack doctor who may have a patient with a cough. So he gives him patent medicine to suppress cough. But, the body needs to cough, to get something noxious out of the lungs. The patient stops coughing, the noxious substance remains in the lungs, and soon the patient has pneumonia, and then dies. What I am driving at: Bernanke talking about reducing the value of the dollar so prices rise, is infantile quackery and a "Sorcerer's Apprentice" (music by Paul Dukas) fiddling with the enormous U.S. economy.

Whatever happened to Alan Greenspan's mind, on the way to becoming Fed Chairman? How he cancelled his mind, how he turned his back on everything he had stated before as his opinion, and which made a great deal of sense. Whatever did he do with his conscience? It's like he wrapped it up, put it in a box, sealed it, and buried it six feet under. Amazing how a man can so betray his own conscience!

Ayn Rand's philosophy is deficient, but with regard to money, she said some truthful and very powerful words, and Alan was one of her Chosen. And look at him today. What a mess!


This thing is going to blow; all: get out of the way!

After the storm: I'll let each write his own description!


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Common sense investing for common and uncommon times...#9098412/07/02; 12:45:46

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"If you are looking for thorough guidelines for making good decisions about private gold ownership, The ABCs of Gold Investing has all the answers." --Money World Magazine

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Liberty HeadRE: Markets Glad O'Neill Gone#9098512/07/02; 12:56:54

Snippit: Reuters

"The abrupt removal of the Bush administration's top two economic officials raised hopes among investors that a confidence-boosting fiscal stimulus package is on the way, but it also raised new questions about dollar policy and a flood of new bond issuance"

Liberty Head: Wow! There you have it, straight from Reuters. It's a confidence game. Bush is the games top administrator and "investors" actually hope to keep the con going. One obvious conclusion is that investors have yet to see a correlation between, our current situation and recent confidence-boosting fiscal stimulus packages.
Things are going to get worse before they get better.
While the giant is feasting on Lemming stew, I think I'll grab some of his gold. Heh Heh Heh!
I would much rather join BB in a meal of antelope stew. :-P


Sierra MadreThis is a MUST READ for today!!!#9098612/07/02; 13:41:51

"Why Americans Will Believe Almost Anything"

This is an important article. Read it. Print it out, pass it around your family and friends.

Purchase of Edward L. Bernays' book "Propaganda" is an immediate priority for myself. Bernays is known as the "Father of American Advertising", and he was a nephew of Sigmund Freud.


Cavan ManKev#9098812/07/02; 15:24:24

You'd be surprised how journalists often find employment. Those that don't go to Columbia, Northwestern or Mizzou struggle more than those that do. My Sis graduated from one of those three schools. One of the jobs she had was similar to Mr. Wood's although sans the internet. She wrote copy for an English publication that was a respected tout sheet for the pharmaceutical industry. She was an industry "voice" like Mr. Wood. She knew absolutely nothing about her subject--NOTHING. She made a very good living until the publication folded and I am sure had some influence with her readers. Journalism is just another way to make a buck.
RobotGuyHello All!#9098912/07/02; 16:08:45

Lot's of reading here for a Saturday afternoon,.. good reading too!

Thanx and Cheers!


The Invisible HandHead scratching#9099012/07/02; 16:19:40

What I meant to say with:
"It looks as though A/FOA's outline is completely out of touch with reality and this one day after O’Neill's resignation precisely demonstrates that the DOLLAR is(t) KAPUT".
is that in the eyes of GATA (sorry, I should have added this), A/AFO's analysis is completely out of touch with reality, as GATA never refers to this analysis.
I had understood sector's yesterday's message as meaning that the strong dollar policy was over and thus that FOA's prophecies came true. I therefore wondered why GATA, granted GATA wrote before O’Neill's resignation, never referred to A/FOA's analysis.

My memory may not have served me well relating to ORO's departure.

What I meant to say with:
"FOA has been ostracized as the physical gold Taliban"
is that nobody on this Forum seems to discuss the replacement of the dollar by the euro. As you say ,"his vision has seemed more penetrating every day, as we have watched gold rise inexorably even as the dollar sinks against the euro", still nobody thanks him for having outlined this, nobody referred to this. We paid lip service to him while he was around, but now he seems to have been forgotten.

Chris PowellGATA's work is consistent with A/FOA scenario#9099112/07/02; 16:42:19

Invisible Hand, I don't think GATA has ever said anything
contrary to the postings of Another and Friend of Another. They may be quite right about the historic replacement of the dollar as the world reserve currency. Recent events certainly seem to be moving in the A/FOA direction. GATA's purpose is much more limited than that of A/FOA. GATA seeks only to expose and destroy the devices by which the price of gold is surreptitiously suppressed and to restore a free market in gold. But I don't know why GATA's purposes and the scenario advocated by A/FOA cannot be perfectly consistent. I tend to think we're prodding everything along in the A/FOA direction.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

LeighInvisible Hand#9099212/07/02; 16:52:50

There hasn't been a single day when I've forgotten FOA or failed to log on hoping to see him again. It was one year ago this weekend that he left. One year ago that ORO made his outrageous personal attacks toward him (are ORO's remarks what you meant by FOA being ostracized as a Taliban?).

A few weeks ago I noticed a new poster who made a couple of very FOA-like posts. I was thrilled and hoped that our Friend was visiting in disguise. Did anyone else notice? (I don't want to blow his cover, if it was indeed FOA, by revealing his handle.)

Paper Avalanche@ Chris Powell#9099312/07/02; 17:12:26

How well known are GATA's efforts (and acceptance of GATA's basic premise re the gold/US$ cabal) among the European, Middle Eastern, African and Far East financial communities? Has GATA's presentation of the facts regarding the manipulation of the POG been readily accepted by the majority of those in the financial community outside the US? I assume that the news black out that has been imposed on the "land of the free" has not been as limiting in other countries and that the other 5.7 billion people in the world are beginning to change their views of the US manipulation of POG for the benefit of our confetti. I would be very appreciative if you might share any insight that you have relating to discussions with or feedback received from financial players outside of the US plantation.

Thank you very much for your tireless efforts on this front. I strongly believe that one day GATA will have a place in the financial history books as a result of your undying devotion to this cause.

Take care.

Paper Avalanche

sectorThe US Mint Advertisement on NBC Nightly News this evening#9099412/07/02; 17:50:36

Gold Eagles Silver Eagles everywhere...things of true beauty

...meethinks they doth protest too much.

The old "Coins on the counter" scheme of the 1930's. The bank[Treasury] must be solvent, look at all those coins!

Well folks there may be two takes on the Mint ads (1) They ran out of coin metal stock and have a surplus of paper budget dollars which must be spent or lost and(2) they ran out of coin metal stock and are trying to convince everybody they didn't.

Jeeze! Perhaps this is yet ANOTHER data point in the T* puzzle?

This is getting to be real sport!

Antipodean BugWeapons inspections planned in the US#9099512/07/02; 17:57:59

Heard on national radio earlier today, Downunder, an interview with
a Canadian spokesperson who represented an organisation
seeking to conduct inspections on US soil for weapons
of mass destruction.
Apparently the organisation comprises engineers, scientists
and academics who believe that the US is as much in violation of UN treaties as might be alleged of Iraq.
The spokesperson sounded rational and coherent hightlighting
that the US was the only country to unleash wpm on
innocent civilians (referring to atomic warfare).

It does seem to many of us living outside the US that
such weaponry in the hands of American elitists who defrauded investors at Enron, authorised sham audits via Andersens to delude more investors, who indulge in questionable foreign policy incursions and who are not able to demonstrate fiscal responsibility at home, might
be immune from the same world scrutiny they are so
doggedly determined to impose on others.

sectorWar Time Table#9099612/07/02; 18:01:58

Here's a good review of the troupe and heavy mech readiness.

It looks to be January.

PH in LAFOA's vision#9099712/07/02; 18:02:50


Don't for a moment imagine that FOA has been either forgotten nor ignored by long-time readers of this forum.

I'm sure that I am not the only reader who tunes in daily hoping that this will be the day he returns... which he promised to do "when the rains come".

Belgium is one poster who seems to have been influenced by A/FOA and often refers to their message.

Black BladeMuch Ado about Nothing -- Whither the Caspian Riches?#9099812/07/02; 18:03:11

Over the Last 24 Months Hoped For Caspian Oil Bonanza Has Vanished With Each New Well Drilled -- Global Implications Are Frightening


[Ed. Note: The unfolding drama since 9-11-01 has been closely paralleled by another, perhaps more threatening one. Evolving more quietly, unmentioned and ignored by the major media, is a coming hydrocarbon energy crisis of civilization-threatening significance. Peak oil production is a reality, and it is happening now. What was once heralded as an oil bonanza in Central Asia -- and given life by ludicrous economic and political assertions insisting that demand always creates supply -- has proven itself to be an enormous bust. As Caspian reserve estimates have been continually revised lower -- from 200 billion barrels, to 100 billion barrels, to around 20 billion barrels -- the world has witnessed a dramatic shift in U.S. foreign policy toward belligerent and unilateral doctrines aimed at Iraq and Saudi Arabia. In the meantime, both politicians and economists perpetuate a dangerous fallacy which says that if you lock scientists up in a bank vault and give them enough money and enough demand, they can produce a hot dog with mustard and relish.

Dec. 5, 2002, 16:00 PST (FTW) -- What ever happened to all the talk of a new oil utopia in the Caspian Sea and Central Asia? Word was that Caspian-Central Asian oil reserves would dwarf the Middle East. Yet, in the year since the Afghan War began, it seems that all the rumors of Caspian riches have died out and the center of oil interest has returned once again to Saudi Arabia and Iraq. In his exclusive FTW interview (, noted petroleum geologist Colin Campbell states that exploration in the Caspian region has been very disappointing, with the discoveries being much smaller than predicted and much of the oil discovered being of poor quality. But the Energy Information Agency (EIA) predicted that the Caspian region would contain in excess of 200 billion barrels of oil. So what is being said elsewhere about the results of Caspian oil exploration? At a recent event hosted by the Associated Press and the Harriman Institute, Steven Mann, the director of the State Department's Caspian Basin Energy Policy Office stated that the Caspian Sea contains only 50 billion barrels of proven reserves, a far cry from the EIA's projections. "Caspian Oil represents 4 percent of the world's reserves. It will never dominate the world's markets...". Likewise, a study published in PetroStrategies last July stated that the Caspian Sea contains only 39.4 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. The study, conducted by consultants from Wood MacKenzie, criticized IEA figures for the region as being severely inflated and unrealistic. The study states that oil production from the Caspian region should peak at 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2015, but be considerably less if the region remains politically unstable. Future discoveries might result in a production plateau extending beyond 2020.

Black Blade: I had discussed this issue here maybe two years ago. The Chevron venture was hitting a string of dry holes in what was being touted as the west's answer to Middle East oil dependence. George Bush and Dick Cheney as oilmen must have known how critical the energy situation is and how America (actually the entire world outside of OPEC) is held hostage to Middle East interests. The global economy as we know it cannot exist without "cheap energy". Well folks, those days are gone forever. I will discuss that in a post I am compiling from numerous reports and documents. Every time I think I have it all together I come across even more disturbing information. Is it any wonder that the US is ready to go to war against Iraq (alone if necessary)? Also, there are already influential voices urging Bush to go on to Iran as soon as he is finished with Iraq. There are a lot of voices opposed to war, but as soon as Americans begin paying more than a couple of bucks for a gallon of gasoline, or the lights begin to flicker, or people start to shiver in cold darkened abodes, or start to die of heat exhaustion during sweltering summer heat, you can bet your bottom dollar that Americans won't give a rats ass what the rest of the world thinks. They will vigorously support a war for "cheap energy". The coming energy shock (actually "crisis" is a mild term) will cream the economy. Are you ready for a "New Depression"? If not then you had better start getting prepared. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver for wealth preservation, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities (the sooner the better). And then pray like hell for the best possible outcome.

Chris PowellHow well-known is GATA's work?#9099912/07/02; 18:10:13

Paper Avalanche asks: How well-known are GATA's
efforts around the world? My impression is that
they are well known in the mining industry and
among gold investors everywhere except perhaps
in China and Japan, from which we draw very
little response. While the blackout in the
major financial publications in the United States
is very irratating to us, it hasn't kept us from
reaching mining interests and gold investors there,
just mainstream investors, and eventually they
may coming looking for us. My impression is that
most people who follow the gold market closely
-- all around the world -- have concluded that the
price is probably being suppressed at government
behest. That's great progress for us, since, four
years ago, when GATA started, we were considered
nuts for saying so. But the gold suppression scheme
is actually public record; the only question is
how far it extends and who is in on it. After all,
what was the Washington Agreement if not a
proclamation by nearly all the Western central
banks of their plan for regulating the gold

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

silvesterLeigh#9100012/07/02; 18:17:25

I too search daily for our friends. Would like to go back and read those couple messages you mention. Do you remember the date? Thanks
sector@ kev -- The First Time I met Tim Wood [He, Of the Minweb]#9100112/07/02; 18:29:16

...was in New Orleans

He was adamant that "People will be very surprised at Anglogold [Hedger with big ad space at the Mineweb] in the next 24 months". I asked why. He offered essentially nothing regarding new reserves, extraction efficiencies or mergers. He then went on to rip Agnico Eagle [Non-hedger] "They like to dilute" and GoldCorp [Non-Hedger] "Too pricey" and had this comment regarding another mid-level, unhedged producer:

"Their entire geology staff in Latin America quit". " They don't borrow enough" "They are high grading" know...ore mined and ounces reported.

He did not know I was a Meridian investor and had some university training in geology. The truth was obtained from upper management within 1 hour:

(1) One geologist took a leave of absence due to the birth of a premature child. The operational staff was intact and highly competent as the management had been quite diligent in hiring quality employees (2) They self fund [Which is why I'm there in the first place] and (3) their average grade went way up due to recent exploration finds when Tim Wood wasn't looking or, more likely, didn't know how to aggregate the resourse.

I'm sure he's written some useful pieces in the past. This was my first encounter with the "Journalist".

Mr. Wood's business card reads "Uncompromising independence"

It should read: "Have mouth, will shoot"

Leighsilvester#9100212/07/02; 18:33:57

I don't have a calendar around, but it was about three weeks ago, on a Saturday I think. Mr. Gresham took note of this interesting new poster, and I certainly did, though silently.
Leighsilvester#9100312/07/02; 18:39:17

I just want to say, I could be wrong; Lord knows I've been wrong about things before. But this particular addition to our group had FOA's folksy charm and a message that was penetrating. My apologies if I have guessed wrongly.
Paper Avalanche@ Chris Powell#9100412/07/02; 18:41:37

Thank you for your response. My admiration for you and and all within your group to take on the foe is immense. Again, I thank you for your efforts in doing so.

Have a great weekend!

Paper Avalanche

Humble PiePost #90997#9100512/07/02; 18:45:08

I too await the return of FOA,Its been said before that patience wil be rewarded.Belgian does offer a discussion of some excelence.
sectorNovember Silver Eagle 1 ounce Coin Sales at the US Mint#9100612/07/02; 18:51:03

Not looking too good for the boys at Treas

November 2002 -- 175,000
November 2001 -- 1,031,500
November 2000 -- 580,500
November 1999 -- 366,000
November 1998 -- 635,000

No wonder they ran an ad on NBC Nightly News this evening. Those "Sales" don't show back orders. A tiny itty bitty little shortfall of 10X. With the really big demand month here today.

The inside-the-beltway dudes appear to have run out of silver.

Any bets if the good Mr. Buffet has a few tonnes around.

ElGordoUK borrowing and spending out of control#9100712/07/02; 19:02:47,6903,855746,00.html

Homeowners are spening more than £4 billion a month on consumer goods - like cars, DVD players and luxury TVs - with money borrowed against their rising house prices.

This 'mortgage equity withdrawal' is out of control and responsible for two in every three pounds of the growth in consumer spending this year, say HSBC economists.

But Britain's property-fuelled spending boom is beginning to suffocate an unbalanced real economy and requires government action to 'dampen it down and prevent potentially damaging consequences', say influential business groups.

The Engineering Employers Federation is disturbed that this spending surge prevented the Bank of England Monetary Policy committee cutting base rates last week, despite a slump in manufac turing production in October.

HSBC calculates that £12.5bn was extracted by homeowners from the rising value of property in the three months between July and September and it is 'being spent fast on big ticket items'. This represents a 25 per cent increase on the Bank of England figures of £10bn for the previous quarter. Retailers of cars and expensive consumer durables have been the biggest beneficiaries of this method of financing.

The seasonal spending boom is likely to see this borrowing against higher house prices increase again. Total spending due to mortgage equity withdrawal will exceed 5 per cent of GDP this year. When combined with personal loans these forms of easy credit are financing 11 per cent of consumer spending, the highest proportion on record, with the exception of the third quarter in 1988.

'Although mortgage equity withdrawal has risen to a record high, there are few constraints on it rising even further over the next few months. This represents a gamble that is likely to backfire' says John Butler, UK economist at HSBC.

Bank of England sources have warned that the principal concern of the Monetary Policy Committee is not house price rises in themselves, but that free-spending consumers have already banked these increases, suggesting possible pain during a house price correction.

A Bank paper from last year shows that Britain's liberalised mortgage market is the easiest place in the world to remortgage.

'The likely outcome is that consumer spending will slow aggressively and then grow below trend for a sustained period of time,' says Butler.

But consumers show no sign of reducing their spending habit as the busiest shopping days of the year approach. Last week the Halifax reported that house prices rose by an annual rate of 29.2 per cent to November. At this rate a house bought in November 2001 will have doubled in value by February 2005.

'The effect of the escalating housing market on the economy has now reached the stage where it demands action from the Government to dampen it down and prevent potentially damaging consequences for the economy,' said Martin Temple of the Engineering Employers Federation.

Old YellerPH in LA#9100812/07/02; 19:10:06

Don't forget ORO,his discussions with FOA were epic.

Along with everything else he posted.

Amazing stuff,almost every day,then...nothing,just when
the slow motion train wreck gathers intensity.

I'm deeply gratefull for all I've learned from both ORO and FOA,as well as all the other posters at USAGOLD.It's forever
changed my perceptions of the realities of our modern world
and it's dysfunctional and criminal monetary system.

What a long'strange trip it's been,many thanks,USAGOLD.

Black BladeRe: Kev and sector – Tim Wood#9100912/07/02; 19:19:31

One thing that I had noticed early on in regard to Tim Wood is that he is not always consistent in his position on some issues. He has changed in midstream at times being critical of one mega-hedger for example and then praising that producers hedging strategy. I don't really find a lot of credibility in most of his work though I find it somewhat amusing at times. It is much like a liberal arts graduate trying to explain the intricacies of nuclear physics. My perspective is that he writes what he does for the purpose of "getting a rise" out of his readers. In other words he strives for shock value.

I don't know what his background is but I would venture a guess that he has no experience in mining or mining operations. He seems to think of mining as one would think about quarry operations. There are of course significant differences and especially in regard to underground mining. I had thought about pointing out many of his fallacies and misconceptions in his ‘guess work" article about Meridian Gold, but then I figured why bother.

Underground mines have a different set of complex issues. I wondered how exactly does one "high-grade" underground. You take what is available and if it is high-grade then that's what is available. Grades are not consistent in mining and therefore stockpiles are used as mill feed as operations progress to the next target. In open pit operations there is more flexibility but costs dictate how mining progresses when mining from one target to the next underground whereas in open pit mining (at least in most open pit operations) multiple targets can be mined simultaneously. Add complex issues of geology and geologic structure and the picture becomes even more complex. All underground operations go through "peaks and valleys", that's just the nature of the beast. What he criticizes about Meridian is a common theme in all mining. Even the geologist in question (Rich Lorsen) stated that the geologist who took over had been with Meridian since the early days of their South American venture.

In short I would just take what Tim Wood says with a grain of salt. Curiously after that Mineweb article and all the hoopla surrounding it, several investment houses and analysts issued upgrades to Meridian shares So apparently most others take what Tim says with a grain of salt as well. Many have accused Tim of being a "mouth piece" for the mega-hedgers or gold shorts. I don't know of any evidence to support that contention. As I said, it is my impression from the articles of his that I have read is that he merely enjoys getting a "rise" out of his readers who are primarily gold stock investors. That is why I rarely even bother to challenge his articles. As I said, what's the point?


- Black Blade

sectorResignation Leaves Strong Dollar Policy Adrift: Analysts#9101012/07/02; 19:23:33'Neill

WASHINGTON, December 7 (IslamOnline & News Agencies)

The resignation of U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill leaves many open questions about Washington's strong dollar policy, with the risk of drift in policy, analysts said Saturday, December 7.

"The knee-jerk reaction is that O'Neill's resignation is bad for the dollar," said Marc Chandler, chief global currency strategist at HSBC, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP).

O'Neill had "refused to distance himself from the strong dollar policy of [Robert] Rubin and [Lawrence] Summers," his predecessors as treasury Secretaries in the Clinton administration, Chandler said.

O'Neill also consistently played down the importance of the record U.S. current account deficit, and rebuffed calls from U.S. manufacturers to weaken the strong dollar policy, analysts noted.
Note the dateline.

The boys in the ME know all about the "Strong Dollar", "Weak Gold" Policy.

In fact, one could have some great fun by wildly envisioning a secret deal between oil potentates and the G-10:

We let you have Iraq, you let gold go.

Mr GreshamHowdeydiddit#9101112/07/02; 19:39:25

Turk's "Disappearing SDRs" makes much more sense to me now, over a year later. I must be slow on the uptake, but some learning just takes time to sink in.

Echo your thoughts, Old Yeller. Sector, were you always this sharply insightful? I may go back and read some earlier times, but you seem like a bloodhound who smells his quarry nearby, lately. ;)

I would welcome anyone making a Websearch to find Oro. I made one FOA followup inquiry from a lead he left us, but no go. Mundell is still a possibility, IMO.

I am still intrigued the Euro-makers could have left us so sparse a "paper" trail to track with regard to FOA's descriptions of their grand strategic design. And are they in some hot water now, or is everything going close to plan? If they are in any trouble now, we can see better why they chose to support the Dollar for so long, so as not to go down with its premature demise. ("Houston, we are pushing away from the mother ship...") A calculated cost they were willing to pay...

mikalHaiku for Sir Douglas, Friend of Another#9101212/07/02; 19:40:58

FOA greetings!
Your friends adhere to the trail,
Wishing you the best!

R Powell"Gold Derivatives: Moving towards Checkmate"#9101312/07/02; 20:16:46

This prints out at 15 pages and can be found at the goldensextant site. It appears to be a join venture by Atty. Howe and Mike Bolser. I printed it out so that I could work through it at my brain's comprehension pace.

I have some thoughts about issues raised and many questions for anyone who can help.

From page 6 under the heading of "Recent Data on Gold Derivatives"..... "Total gold derivatives rose 21% in the first half of 2002, from a notional $231 billion at the end of December 2001 to $279 billion at the end of June 2002." My question here is what exactly is notional value, how is it derived? Does this include transparent market positions from Comex or just OTC derivatives reported or implied by the BIS?

From page 8 under "Gilding Producer Hedgebooks", in which "the practice of not closing hedges but rather of trying to offset them with other hedges" is explained, Howe refers to Bob Landis' work disciphering Barrick's hedgebook. Am I correct in reading that it all boils down to a "net of 300,000 ounces of gold contracts purchased."? If so, is the notional figure of $279 billion also a net number or is it a numerical number of all derivatives marked-to-market at some time?? If not net, it may amount- with offsetting positions- to very little. Howe talks of net positions on page 2....."Of course, taking all the gold derivatives of any particular bullion bank, it may be net long, net short or market neutral." Thank you Mr. Howe! This has been my contention and my complaint with Sinclair's meltdown scenario solely based on the idea that huge amounts of derivatives exist. Of course they do, but what's the net value??

On page 9, same section, there is a good explanation of some of the differences between exchange-traded futures and options versus OTC derivatives. These are two entirely different monetary games, one open to the general public and the other a very private, non-transparent backroom game. Even the conditions or contingencies of the contracts can be vastly different. These are similar games but with different rules. The rules of one game are published, open for all to see; the other game is played by many different sets of rules, some known only to the players but not the spectators. The differences are great enough so that these two should not be confused or viewed as one.

Howe then repeats Bob Landis' question, "Who sold Barrick (and other producers) their forward purchases? And why?"
The supposition is given that miners are cutting back on forward sales and central banks must be the source selling to Barrick. Again, Howe does not indicate if Barrick's forward purchases are Comex (or other open exchange-traded) options/futures OR OTC contractural agreements. If Comex originated, these contracts may very well have been written (sold) by the speculative players either in the large or small category. It is a misconception that only the big commercial money writes contracts. Almost all derivative contracts are offset for cash settlement. This is the (as yet not attacked) market's Achilles heel but players, whether large or small, will offset (cut their loses) or otherwise hedge if the underlying price moves against them. I believe Barrick may have hedged above board in paper contracts from Comex, no? Does this guarantee physical? No, but do their short contracts guarantee delivery of physical or can these too be offset (boughtback or delta-hedged)? So much is still unseen. For those not familar with American style options as opposed to European options, there is one HUGE difference. Comex options can be exercised or offset ANYTIME before expiration, not just on the date of expiration as with the European options.

That's 9 of 15 pages that I've read and puzzled over so far. I think my brain may require some sleep before continuing. It gets very cranky when it's tired even though I fed and water it daily.
Special thanks to both Mr Howe and Mr. Bolser for this and all their other works!!
Happy (and cold in the Northeast) Weekend

HOOSIER GOLDBUGSILVER SHORTAGE!!!!!!!!!#9101412/07/02; 20:17:22

Called a trusted dealer (GOLD and SILVER) yesterday to find out what is going on with 2002 SILVER Eagles. He said he had plenty to sell, and when he contacted the U.S. MINT to pre-order 2003 SILVER Eagles, the U.S. MINT were requiring he purchase FROM THEM remaining 2002 Eagles to gain control of 2003 SILVER Eagles. He told them to melt the remaining 2002 SILVER Eagles down, but they said they were NOT going to do that. THEY SAID IF YOU WANT 2003'S, YOU WILL ALSO TAKE SOME OF OUR REMAINING 2002'S. FWIW.
TownCrierA repost of Kev (12/07/02; 15:15:01MT - msg#: 90987), sans e-mail address#9101512/07/02; 21:01:55

[Because posting email addresses here is a "no-no", that's why.]
Open Letter to Mr. T. Wood
a reaction on:
"No way to run a conspiracy"

Dear Mr. T. Wood,
I have read your article "No way to run a conspiracy". With all due respect, but it was a waste of my time. This kind of 'easy writings' lead us nowhere. Maybe you get some angry replies from GATA supporters once again, so the webmaster can - in his turn - waste his time on deleting the ones containing offensive language.

Look... I like MineWeb. It is a great website about the mining industry. It is available for all at zero cost. What's more, it brings excellent interviews and it very well covers all that concerns gold mining. Do you know why this is so? Because it has some very good journalists. And you are one of them. I know, because I have read some excellent articles of your hand in the past. Articles that don't waste the reader's time, the webmaster's time and probably - honestly, what's the surplus value of this one? - the author's time.

A journalist should report on things in an honest way and take an objective stand if possible. And I'm not saying that you don't do that. My point is that I'm tired of reading these stupid articles about 'the conspiracy crowd'. Why is it stupid? Because it gives us only two points of view. One of the author (which is the one that is the least important) and one of the conpiracists. Let me explain.

As you know, over the years GATA has tried to gather evidence to support their alleged gold manipulation theory. That's not easy, because the gold market isn't exactly the easiest market to gather some very simple information like the amount of tonnes that's subject to a loan or lease contract and therefore is not lying in a central bank's vault. If you contact the central banks about this matter, it is useless; a waste of time. We all know that, because we've all tried it.

So the evidence that GATA has, is circumstantial evidence. Moreover, it is well-documented circumstantial evidence. Or, that's at least what they say it is. That's why several times they have challenged the WGC, GFMS and other vested entities in the gold market to discuss their findings. So far they have refused to do so.

And that's exactly where you should come into play. Just take their evidence, send or fax it to Mr. J. Burton (WGC), Mrs. J. Cross (as GFMS consultant), the BIS, the bullion banks and the ten largest gold companies and ask for their comments. Indeed, you can even do that by organizing an event with all parties; that would even be the best solution. And it won't cost you anything, because 'the conspiracy crowd' is going to pay for it.

You can also just take the recent commentary of Mr. R. Howe ( "Gold Derivatives: Moving towards Checkmate" ), send/fax/e-mail it to the named players in the gold market and ask for their reaction. That's the way Mr. T. Calandra of CBS MarketWatch often plays the game.
It really is straightforward. Take the phone of the hook and ask if they underwrite the findings of Mr R. Howe.
If so, then we know that the total physical short position most likely is in the range of 10,000 to 16,000 tonnes. Eventually, it is this physical deficit that will indeed cause gold prices and lease rates to skyrocket just as happened after the Washington Agreement.

If not, ask them where Mr. R. Howe is wrong. Ask them to explain. We can all learn from it and become a little bit wiser. And, above all, we won't be wasting our time.

Yours truly,

TownCrierHello Mr. Gresham#9101612/07/02; 21:15:30

As I do anytime I see a reference to JT's SDR commentary, I cannot in good conscience let it pass without offering the url above as an enhancement or counterpoint, call it what you like.

Kind regards and happy reading to all interested parties.


Black BladeBush eyes former Goldman exec for economic job #9101712/07/02; 22:00:12


WASHINGTON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Former Goldman Sachs Chairman Stephen Friedman is likely to replace Lawrence Lindsey as President George W. Bush's top economic adviser, administration officials said on Friday. An announcement could come as early as Monday, though officials cautioned that no final decisions have been made on how to revamp the economic team. The abrupt resignations on Friday of Lindsey and Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill rekindled talk in Washington and on Wall Street that Bush needs to bolster his economic team with people who have an understanding of financial markets. Friedman, who served as co-chairman of Goldman, Sachs with former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, would fit that bill well, according to those who know him.

Black Blade: Oh good grief! New boss same as the old boss.

BTW, United Airlines will likely file Chapter 11 tomorrow or Monday. Another one bites the dust.

Black BladeUS Air Lender Threatens to Liquidate It #9101812/07/02; 22:05:57


NEW YORK (Reuters) - The chief executive of the primary lender to bankrupt US Airways Group said he would liquidate the airline if unions refused to provide $200 million in additional wage and benefit concessions, The New York Times reported on Saturday. David Bronner, CEO of the Retirement Systems of Alabama, said he did not expect to have to follow through on his ultimatum and predicted that cost-cutting discussions between the airline and its employees would result in an agreement by next week, The New York Times reported. "What's their alternative?" Bronner asked rhetorically. "If they don't want to do this, we'll Chapter 7 it."

Black Blade: Another bites the dust?

Black BladeAmerican Airlines asks employees for pay freeze #9101912/07/02; 22:13:00


DALLAS (AP) American Airlines, the world's largest carrier, asked employees Friday to forego pay raises they are due next year to help the company stem massive losses. American, whose parent company lost nearly $3 billion in the first nine months of this year, said cancelling pay raises would save $130 million. Chairman and chief executive Donald Carty has said the company needs to cut $4 billion in annual costs and has found about half of that by laying off workers, mothballing planes, cancelling orders for new jets, reducing food service and other changes.

Black Blade: Yet another on the verge of going under. Rumor is that they too will file Chapter 11.

mikalJim Sinclair charting and analysis#9102012/07/02; 22:44:00

James E. Sinclair
Chairman & CEO of Tan Range Exploration Corp
What is the Medium-Term Market Impact of
The Jolly Green Giant
"The Exchange Stabilization Funds" Activity as
Stabilization or Manipulation on the US Dollar & Gold?
A Secular Fundotechnical Answer:
by James Sinclair 12/07/02
The St. Louis Federal Reserve's most recent chart of the key dollar level ingredient, the position of the Current Account Balance in terms of US Gross Domestic Product GDP (see arrow on right hand axis) is in the negative position, a deficit now at the key level 5%. This chart shows no present evidence of any technical intention of a reversal of its negative progress. This fundamental, although pooh-poohed by the now-resigned Secretary of the Treasury and the now-resigned Chief Financial Advisor to the Bush Administration as non-consequential, is known to be that level where major currency adjustment historically occurs. That is to say, such a dollar adjustment should begin here. This is a key concept that you need to keep in mind as we go deeper into this discussion.
Note the US dollar has a potential Head and Shoulders developing again after its triangular top formation. Should this formation develop and the dollar close below 104 on the US Dollar Index (USDX), a price objective will result slightly above 80 on the Index. So far the actions of the Jolly Green Giant USD is to help form the possible right Shoulder of this classic top formation. In a sense then, the ESF is doing us a neat favor by outlining a formation that gives us a measured move to the downside.
The Euro has an interesting price objective.....
A Dynamic bull move in gold is about to start - NEXT WEEK!.....End snippitts

cyberbatHear Ye, Hear Ye!!#9102112/07/02; 22:46:59

Hear Ye, Hear Ye; Yea the town crier now brings a new law from our royal king. As of now, all freedoms ye have thus enjoyed in the past have now been canceled. The king's old constitution has been sat aside in order to allow the good king more freedom in snaring theives, highwaymen, and those that would conspire treson against him. The anti-robbers act is now in force. Among those freedoms that will be set aside are as follows.No freedom of travel to any of yon islands for the sake of escaping heavy taxation. Your huts and crops will be repossessed by the kings' guard if you try to give allegiance to another country. Your huts, crops,and all industry will be heavily taxed in order to hire more soldiers to search for spies and robbers and anyone who might be a threat to my kingdom. Failure to pay, will result in dungeon time!!
All manuscripts, letters, etc. will be read by the king's recorder to make sure one of his subjects is not planning a conspiracy for the king's power.The 14th amendment to the king's constitution has now been relegated to a simple historic museum piece; now no one will be safe in their huts or from unreasonable searches and seizures and no warrants are required to do so. This is a special portion known as the King's patriot act. If ye have nothing to hide, then ye have nothing to fear.
The king has noticed as of late that his servitude is refusing to take the clipped coins of the king. In the future, if this conduct continues, the king may outlaw all silver and gold and issue the King's script, now known as money and all gold and silver may be confiscated.
The king has thus spoken and hopes everyone understands the nature of this dire threat to "our" soverignty by highway, spies, robbers, and such.
Pay your unfair share of taxes, tell on your neighbor if he acts like a spy, pay homage to my new script called money, and don't conspire against the kings will and you will be A-OK.
So let it be written, so let it be done.

Mr GreshamRandy: SDRs#9102212/07/02; 23:01:23

Randy, that WAS quite an essay on the topic -- seems like you and Turk really may have sparked each other forward on that one. I don't know where I was during those days (skipping class?) but as I said, the obfuscation that was inherent in SDRs must have rubbed off on me, bigtime.

As the Smoke and Mirrors parallel to the Gold Pool, they served the late 90s as one of the props in POG suppression. Until they ran out of 'em. So now, General Custer is holding off "all those Indians" with just one six-shooter, instead of two. (Actually, I think history shows he fell fairly early in the fight...)

Knowing that inventory was in liquidation, many players would have been willing to front-run (or backrun) POG moves knowing they had a sure thing going. Might they not have been sure of where/when it would stop, thus leaving themselves little/no time to turn around? Or is that sort of turnaround not encompassed within their understanding, or design, anyway?

This POG control project may prove historically to have been a well-executed rearguard action, eliciting help even from its chief future competitor. SDRs seem to have been designed in contemplation of need one day for just that purpose.

Topic suggesting itself: Does anyone know where all the IMF gold is, or what it is doing? That's one of the large tonnage caches, eh?

mikalSinclair Tech Review#9102312/07/02; 23:05:30

12.06.2002 Jim Sinclair Tech Review- Excerpts:
Here comes the Cavalry. White Hats or Black Hats?
It is a matter of Perspective.
I will do a general Technical Review this weekend, but for this article I want you to see what Stabilization/Manipulation looks like when it is occurring. The Exchange Stabilization Fund operates 24 hours a day, but is most effective in the most advanced market where the professional traders working for the President and the Secretary of the US Treasury can utilize the most advanced derivative spreads. Yes, derivative spreads. This is another limitation of the Stabilizers/Manipulators. This explains why markets tend to move to a greater degree on Asian/European time.
Dow Jones: INDU
It is my opinion, based on my observations of markets and the known fact that the ESF has expanded from market to market over the past three administrations, that a spread activity Stabilization/Manipulation occurs from time to time in the easiest to operate Dow Jones 30 Index.....
Gold: Continuous Pit Contract
The strong presence in the gold market appears at 9:21AM and remained until 10:14AM returning for a 5-minute period before the end of Comex dealing. Although it appears as if the commercials (gold cartel members) are the sellers, it is the ESF using the commercials as agents to accomplish their ends.
Now do you know where the commercial got the idea to be short, short and shorter of gold over the past many years? What makes you think the commercial are geniuses. The problem now is the commercial, because of downgrades as to counterparty creditworthiness, are out of trading money. Their actions now are as agents for the ESF who is operating a large gold spread for stabilization/manipulative purposes.
Can the ESF be beaten? The answer is most certainly, yes, just as they were in 1978 & 1979. Keep in mind that gold going down says "deflation." That is becoming a dirty word at the Fed and at the White House. A New Secretary of the Treasury and a New Federal Reserve Chairman may well fulfill Greenspan's statement, which said to me that we have come full circle. The question is what cycle was he addressing leading to the question, "from what to what?" How about from All major markets are operated. That is an unfortunate fact of life. To argue this is to demonstrate your lack of knowingness, not understanding. The operation specializes herein being reviewed, the ESF, acts in the shortest period of time, but acts quite often. This is nothing new. It has been going on for more than 60 years. I assure you this is nothing new. It is like the jolly green giant in the market. Giants, when they fall, make real loud noises and never make soft landings. I suspect the new boss of this huge hedge fund, the ESF, is going to be on gold's side. Deflation is a four-letter dirty word. The ESF like the out of real business, the gold cartel, is not gold's opposition any more. Mark my words.....End snippitts

24caratIntro to theory of CASH at work %#9102412/07/02; 23:09:20

The idea of a good investment is to get a return, and if you're not a profound thinker then allow the banks to pay a decent return on your savings. But, that concept has become a thing of the past. The idea of putting your money in savings is rediculous due to the amount of interest received. Although my message may seem boring, what I would like to explain is why I have become addicted to putting my savings in silver bullion and some gold bullion.
Stay tuned

mikalCorrection #9102512/07/02; 23:09:23

In the eleventh line from the bottom: "How about all" should read "How about all....." seperated from the rest of text by a break.
mikalCorrection#9102612/07/02; 23:13:32

In the eleventh line from the bottom of he last excerpt, replace "How about from" with ....., seperating bordering sentences with a break.
Sierra MadreR Powell's comments on Reg. Howe's analysis....#9102712/07/02; 23:14:58

Hello Mr. Powell, if you are still around. I tried to work my way through Reg Howe's essay. I too, found it very tough sledding, indeed. I am glad I have your company.

I know Reg, and he knows what he is talking about, I am sure, and he talks like he writes - leaves me far behind most of the time!

I felt like writing Reg as follows: "Reg, if you were a professor at Harvard - I am convinced you would make a brilliant teacher - I would flunk out of your course, because I can't keep up with your thinking, just not smart enough to cut it."

R Powell, read the last couple of paragraphs, and take the rest on faith - gold has been sold short massively, and there is no way it can be paid back. That's the nitty gritty. "That is all you know, and all you need to know."



Black BladeThe Jolly Green Giant#9102812/08/02; 00:36:26

"The Exchange Stabilization Funds" Activity as Stabilization or Manipulation on the US Dollar & Gold?



Members of the gold community have asked me to put some French curves in the discussion. Well, gold long-term seems appropriate this weekend. I am presenting two curves because they have a common intersection point in time and that is next week.


A Dynamic bull move in gold is about to start - NEXT WEEK!

Black Blade: Next week? Hmmm… Sounds good to me.

The Invisible HandPeter Fisher, the ESF and next week's start of the gold bull#9102912/08/02; 02:26:42

The Sinclair editorial which Black Blade quoted in the first post of the day says that the gold bull will start next week. How come?

The Washington Post says today that the first order of business(for Bush's new economic team) will be pushing through a bipartisan economic stimulus plan that demonstrates the administration has taken charge again.

sector brought up that Peter Fisher may be appointed Secretary of the Treasury.

Who's this Peter Fisher? He's the guy who earlier this month(December 4)was still viewed as potential candidate for the still vacant
SEC president post.

How did sector come up with his name as O’Neill's successor?
This seems to come from Banc of America Securities chief economist. As CNN reports:
Another internal candidate (of the Treasury for the post of Secretary of the Treasury), (is) Peter Fisher, Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance, was suggested by Banc of America Securities Chief Economist Mickey Levy.
Fisher, formerly executive vice-president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is a registered Democrat and a fiscal conservative, Levy said. But Fisher could bring strong union opposition. He was one of two members of the Air Transportation Stabilization Board who voted Wednesday to deny United Airlines' request for $1.8 billion in federal loan guarantees. That decision has been attacked by the nation's powerful airline unions because it is likely to force the carrier into bankruptcy.

This guy is a Democrat, who's nevertheless not liked by the unions, says CNN. Well, that's the guy who can bring the bipartisan approach, which The Washington Post wants, to Washington.

As Jim Sinclair pointed out in his editorial of last Friday, the day of the resignations, thus the day before the editorial quoted by Black Blade,
the difference between qualifying the actions of the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) as Stabilization or Manipulation depends on the perspective or approach you're taking.

A bipartisan approach views the actions of the ESF as both Stabilization and Manipulation and thus repeals, or at least temporarily immobilizes (and sees what happens), the ESF. That's how the bull can start. Why not? Extreme circumstances demand extreme measures. Even politicians may understand that.

GoldCoasterNext weeks continuation of the Bull Market#9103012/08/02; 03:02:56

I know that a lot of posters here are very exited about the possibility of Gold continuing towards ,or even past, 330 dollars.
A lot of posters are also not very fond of technical analysis.I would only like to say that at this current price of Gold ,on a weeekly and monthly chart,you can see what might become a double top with 280 $ implications.Needless to say that Gold needs to add a few bucks this coming week and settle higher than today.
Personally ,I couldnt think of any other asset I'd rather have.T/A,F/A or golden cups still are not the same.

Belgian@ Sector , Good morning#9103112/08/02; 03:25:19

Your post #91010 :....Secret deal between oil potentates and G10....
We let you have Iraq, you let Gold go.

Within the massive gold-dollar-paper-contract market (visible + unvisible), there are without any doubt, a lot of contracts where underground oil and underground Gold do meet each other. Why am I so sure about the "without any doubt" ? For a panache of reasons and not in the least because Saudi Arabia is IN THE BIS ! LBMA pré 1997 secrecy was exactly because the Rothshields dynasty was ruling this unique trade between oil and Gold. Bringing LBMA to the public has a very good reason, while it is suggesting that this very old Rothshields exclusivity will come under more and more euro-connected directives.

We, Westerners must stop dreaming about exporting UN-stability as to obtain internal stability ! If one desires to "globalise" should create the right environment to let it flourish as freely as possibly can be.
Installing a west-friendly regime in Iraq with the thousands of Iraqis, evacuated to the US, by Bush Sr., is not an act of "stability" !

The world's financiers (Haute Finance) has always been organising and playing, geopolitical games, against their financial backgrounds. Unvisible for all of us as per definition. This does not mean it doesn't happen.
Wars and revolutions are "constructions" always with the financier's signature under the constant altering plans.

Yes indeed, we know this theories and start to fantasize as to how the next play will turn out. But I think that we the lilliputans are always wrongfooted and should only watch the events as they unfold.

The ongoing ME-crusade has still many jokers left, seen to be played against the background of : oil / gold / dollar / euro.
Secret deals are not contracts. Plans can change dramatically, overnight. Speculations on outcomes are gambles.

The Sinclair (H.Shultz-Depret) LT Gold-chart (1977>02) ***PAINTS*** the picture as obvious as can be. GOLD IS IN THE GAME ! A chart is the one and only picture (best we can get) of "what" all participants are doing. But a picture is a picture and can be tricked. But nevertheless, there are specialists who can interpret those pictures, better than others. Gold is on its way, already. Life itself is a gambling game of "probabilities".

The above is an attempt to give your mentioning of "secret deals" some more perspective. Good weekend to you Sir.

KnallgoldCoin ads on CNBC#9103212/8/02; 03:43:36

"The old "Coins on the counter" scheme of the 1930's. The bank[Treasury] must be solvent, look at all those coins!"-sector

My take also.And I know of at least 3 games/lotteries here in Switzerland where you can win between 10g and 10kilo Gold.Plus the Silvermine game where you can win your weight in Silver."There must be a glut of Gold" is the suggestion.

And,what are the real costs of this for the banks?Most people will sell it back to the bank,being for cash or "certificate".

Particularly worth noting is the rather too obvious origin of the Goldbars,a big Swiss bullion bank known to be in troubles.

Having said this,I'm enjoing to play in these lotteries-Gold is Gold,as Aristotle said.And I would keep it if I won!

Belgian@ Goldcoaster#9103312/8/02; 03:51:58

A set back for POG to the 290$-zone isn't changing a iota to the Big Picture ! Gold-Avocates don't want to be rewarded on hourly POG-watch. May I emphasize again that the euro desires to remain at parity with the dollar for the time being. A break through in POG simply means that external forces (read shocks) are getting the upper-hand, temporary or decisevely !? POG is the leading factor, not the laggerd ! Please do not forget that Gold MUST flow, for oil, to reach our shores. The impatience of Asian non-oil Gold Giants, might disturb the Gold-management if not enough Physical remains available, also to them !

The more the paper-gold mountain grows...the more physical (underlying fraction) is needed to keep the paper mountain growing. Fast moves in POG are very disturbing to let things, roll-over, orderly. Remember the "gap"-theory with the consequently point of no return. This is pictured in the LT-chart where the bowls and domes are as geometrical layers in our earth crust. Once the Gold-vulcano erupts...the magma must flow up until it cools and solidifies. Then Gold has set itself FREE at its realistic price-level where it will remain.

There is still an enormous reluctance to see Gold into the many thousands. Volcanos don't erupt just a tiny little bit of lava...THEY EXPLODE ! Back to 290$-zone is explosion postponed. Through 330$ is the earth crust giving way as a foreplay to a possible explosion.

Many kept on dancing around the NASDAQ crater when that vulcano erupted at its maximum pressure of 5,000 degrees...a lot of freezing happened since. All the Nas-lava hasn't solidifyed yet.

ElGordoFirst Triple BUY signal in 28 Years#9103412/8/02; 04:17:05

Gold stocks continued their expected surge upward on Thursday and Friday, with USERX climbing 3% a day to close Friday at 4.48! This is another one-penny breakout over the important prior high of 4.47. The contracting triangle has been broken to the upside.

Although such breakouts can be fake-outs, the index formations are the most bullish that I have ever seen (in 28 years of data). The 16-20 index bought on last Monday's low of 3.99, the 35-39 bought today (marking an apparent breakout), and the 92-96 indexbuys at the close on Monday. The triple buy signal is complete. The next signal (and hopefully the last signal for a long time) is the 16-20 sell signal that will be executed on Tuesday (I don't recommend selling on this overbought indicator).

The following is for students of the indices. Consider printing this out for long-term knowledge. In the true absolute system, the system bought on that last 3.99 16-20 buy signal on the path. The system therefore sells out on the next 16-20 sell signal (probably on Tuesday, as long as we don't decline more than one penny on Monday). Thereafter, the system is not on any signal and is open. If Tuesday approximately marks a major high, blame me and not the system. I do not anticipate selling any time soon (many months; rare for me). If we go through this 16-20 sell signal, I do not have any index that can indicate a top for many, many months.

The upside is unlimited for the first time ever. The next signal (assuming the continued upside action) would eventually HAVE to be a few weeks of decline into a 16-20 buy signal at some unknown time in the future. And that signal would simply be another 16-20 buy signal on the path! So the system is more bullish than I have ever seen, but is not on the typical 92-96 bull market buy signal. This rise (if it goes through the 16-20 sell signal) is weird and extraordinary. It could continue for a very long period (months to years).

Big moves occur when prices continue to move up or down through 16-20 index signals. The 16-20 index is similar to an oscillator, buying when prices are down and selling when prices rise. Big moves occur as prices break through the buy or sell signals. The rules are as follows: (a) A 16-20 buy signal followed by a 35-39 buy signal yields a likely break through the following 16-20 sell signal, (b) A 16-20 buy signal followed by a 92-96 buy signal yields a likely break through the following 16-20 sell signal, (c) a 35-39 buy signal followed by a 92-96 buy signal yields a likely dramatic rise, (d) the closer that a 35-39 and a 92-96 buy signal follow each other, the more powerful the rise.

For the first time ever, all four of the above conditions have been met. We have a 16-20 buy signal followed in 4 days by a 35-39 buy signal, followed by one day (the closest possible separation) with a 92-96 buy signal, followed by one day with the 16-20 "sell" signal. The current 4-day surge is of historical proportions, averaging 3% a day. Up until today, the indices have only generated triple sell signals (a 16-20 sell, overbought; a 35-39 sell and a 92-96 sell) that have yielded multi-year declines. This is the inverse, a triple buy! If the 16-20 sell doesn't stop us next week, this appears to be the greatest buy signal ever generated.
Lets hope this is the real deal!
I have also read articles indicating a short term top.
In any case, with inflation and war on the horizon, long term
case for gold is bullish.

ElGordoChavez threatens State of Emergency#9103512/8/02; 05:00:06

Sunday, 8 December, 2002, 03:34 GMT
Chavez threatens state of emergency

Demonstrations continued in Caracas on Saturday

President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has warned he may declare a state of emergency if disruption caused by an national strike continues to escalate.

The navy seized the Pilin Leon on Friday

Opposition protests continued for a sixth day on Saturday.

In a speech to supporters in Caracas, Mr Chavez accused his opponents of trying to sabotage the oil industry, which provides half the government's revenue.

The vice-president of the state oil company, Jorge Kamkoff, told the BBC that production was down 40%, with key refineries about to shut down.

TopazThe Invisible Hand.#9103612/8/02; 05:05:06

As you're well aware IH, the great Gold breakout has been predicted "next week" for the past 4 Yr's, imo tho a reset of the trading range to $340-$350 wouldn't surprise....perversely sub-$300 on the back of a strengthening $US (Bond yields heading way south) might be the precursor of real supply/paper credibility problems a-la FoA.
One thing is pretty definite, it won't be $320 for much longer eh?
Interestingly Euro/Pog has been eerely benign for several Mth's now....Good as Gold @ E320ish.
It would be great to get ORO's take on that FED blokes recent methods for attacking deflation....sounded a bit iffy to me.

BoilermakerEnergy Rant#9103712/8/02; 05:26:51

Sir Black Blade has brought to light the spector of an impending energy crisis that will have incredible repercussions. I generally agree and see it as another force in the "perfect storm" that is just around the corner.

The wastage of our central bank gold to perpetuate the strong $ "free lunch" era is about to come to an end. The wastage of the globe's oil resources to sponsor an energy intensive lifestyle for the developed nations (the US clearly leading the pack) is very much like the gold scam.

The US has just about run out of schemes to maintain cheap oil (and NG). We refuse to disturb our arctic wildlife but we will send our sons and daughters to war in a campaign that reeks of oil. This is not to say that I feel that Iraq should be left alone but the spoils of war cannot be dismissed as an incentive to pursue it.

Oil and gold are inseparately bonded as A/FOA have made abundantly clear. It seems to me that that the impending oil/energy crisis could launch oil to triple digits at least for the short term. This is also suggested by the classic long term gold to oil price ratio of about 15. If gold goes to $1500 oil should be around $100/bbl. This drastic change will have incredible consequences to oil based economies but is necessary to provide the incentives for alternative energy sources, a point that I have made many times at this forum.

For instance, if oil had been left to rise in price as its supply life receded then we would be at $50/bbl and we would have already begun the transition to other sources and practicing conservation per the normal price/consumption economics. Keep in mind that $50 oil is only $1.19/gal before refining, transportation and distribution, about $.55/gal above its curren price. Sticker shock, yes, life threatening, no. Europeans have been paying much higher prices forever and they've adjusted to it quite nicely. It's just the folly of keeping a commodity at prices well below replacement cost that will force it much higer than it otherwise would have gone. Sounds to me just like what we have in the gold market.

The US supplied the world's oil until the 1950's. Since then we've gone from a net exporter to importing 60% of the stuff. And now we're approaching 20% imports of our NG. This is flaming crazy for a "responsible" country that wants to be in control of its destiny.

Cheers on this cold Sunday morning,


NEMO me impune lacessitQuestion!#9103812/8/02; 05:55:19

During the early 1980 - when gold rose to $850/oz - was it pure speculation that pushed the prize or was there other fundamentals in play??
Any thoughts.



Black BladeUnited Chapter 11 Filing Imminent#9103912/8/02; 06:14:50

United Chapter 11 Filing 'Appears Unavoidable,' Airline's Union Says After Meeting With Board


CHICAGO (AP) -- The United Airlines board of directors held a special meeting Saturday as union leaders acknowledged that a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing by the world's No. 2 carrier appeared imminent.

Black Blade: Another one bites the dust.

Off to the hills for some skiing!

Sierra MadreNEMO: the price of gold at $850/oz lasted only a couple of days#9104012/8/02; 06:31:49

and it was the result of PANIC.

As I recall, not everyone participated in the panic. The general public mostly watched from the sidelines. The panic was centered in the speculator class, that went berserk for a short time - the price at $850 was a passing phenomenon and few sold out there, as always.

Armand Hammer, Jewish boss of Occidental Petroleum, bought a very large amount of gold, (at $350-$400?) and sold out close to the top. He cleaned up and showed with this operation, his acumen for making a profit. I guess in a buying panic, it's just as hard to discern the top, as it is to discern the bottom when no one wants the stuff.


Sierra MadreSinclair writes in English??#9104112/8/02; 07:31:04

What is Sinclair trying to say?? I guess he must know something, but I find it hard to decipher what he is writing - hidden behind atrocious grammar..

For instance:

"The ESF like the out of real business, the gold cartel, is not gold's opposition any more."

Just what does "The*ESF*like*the*out*of*real*business,*" mean?? Grammar has a function: to make meaning crystal clear. No grammar, no meaning.

Then take this:

"The operation specializes herein being reviewed, the ESF, acts in the shortest period of time, but acts quite often."

What is Sinclair trying to say, with

"The*operation*specializes*herein*being* reviewed*"?

Is bad writing a sign of genius? Is it a sign of sophistication? Correct grammar indicates "A lack of knowingness" to use a clumsy expression? My view: sloppy writing=sloppy thinking.

We are all interested in your views, Sinclair; do write clearly out of respect to your readers!


NEMO me impune lacessitSierra Madre#9104212/8/02; 07:55:07

Thank You very much.
Hope Your Sunday is warmer than mine.
-7 Celcius and windy here in Sweden.


mikalRe: Sierra Madre#9104312/8/02; 08:05:13

"The ESF, like the out of the real business gold cartel..." Foeigners, such as you, may be unfamiliar with the spoken vernacular of many Americans. And we may like to write as we speak, at times to convey a particular feeling. It's written as he may speak it, words spoken are often ungrammatical and an informal presentation is the result, with more precise meaning and feeling. He talks on our level, and in the contex of the entire article, your snippitt was understood by most. FYI it means he believes that the ESF(gold cartel players/major players)are now "out of the real business" of being able to cap POG.
mikalRe: Sierra Madre#9104412/8/02; 08:16:43

Last night I posted excerpts from this "Tech Review" and posted a link different from above. (It would take you to the home page where you could click on "Tech Review" to access it.) Preferably, you can click the above link for immediate access to the entire review. It explains the operations of the ESF very well.
Cavan Man@Sierra#9104512/8/02; 08:19:23

You're showing your bias again Sierra. Labels are meaningless.
mikalMore new Sinclair#9104612/8/02; 08:23:12

This is a must read IMHO.
sector@ Belgian -- Always love your colorful writings Sir!#9104712/8/02; 08:42:29

Today's Tampa Tribune's Editorial Page...

" The Federal Reserve Must Increase the Money Supply -- NOW!"

One knows that a full-court, policy press is on when country newspapers "Spontaneously" ask for inflation. Never mind that $216 Billion have been leafleting the countryside in the last 6 weeks.

Ahhh! The War on Deflation has finally begun. Now the stage is set for $1,000 gold. Everybody can issue a sigh of relief upon seeing the COMEX gold open outcry session chanting More....more....$1,000 per ounce.

I can hear the next SECTREAS now...."FINALLY! Gold has somehow managed to lift itself off the bottom! We here at the Treasury have been perplexed for many years as to why it was so low. Maybe now we can get down to some real Treasury bullion bar sales programs and book some REAL profits.

All that remains is the starting gun. Could be next week or late next year.

One thing seems clear to me though. The central banks will keep a sizable reserve to fight another day. They seem now to be preparing for the next big inflation surge. When the gold price rocket comes they will probably let it run, unimpeded in the fog of war, husbanding their dwindling gold resources.

Then when the natural profit takers come out around $1,000 - $2,000 they may just "Help" the price down with a little more preemptive selling. All the while conserving as much as possible.

So many jokers.

Mr GreshamInternational -- si!#9104812/8/02; 08:45:28

I was just thinking about that, Mikal. My memory is that Sierra is a USAmerican living (retired?) in Mexico. He's got a full grasp of our vernacular, in my experience of him, but he's also got a nice edge of speaking out when he doesn't like something. He hits a lot of fine notes, in my book.

I get fuzzy on some of our others, but I was mentally running down the international list after I saw Knallgold (Switz.) & Nemo (Sweden) post today.

We have CoBra(too) (Austria), Belgian, Topaz (Australia or NZ, he's one I forget), but I think there's been only one Kiwi here, and who are the other Aussies, again? Still haven't gotten an Argentinian. Or a Euro central banker. C'mon guys -- here's your big chance! (Pete Fisher -- don't wait for the FOIA requests to come in!)

We haven't heard from our fellows in China & Japan for awhile, right?

Anyone else want to take a shot at filling in my list today?

Mr Greshamsector#9104912/8/02; 09:07:53

Good one! -- Yes, wasn't that a nasty bout of Deflation we've been having? (smile) Oh, not yet, you say? Well, you know, the thing with Deflation is, you have to stop it before it gets away from you. Can't let that snowball start rolling down the hill!

Any occasion for a Will Rogers quote (I hadn't known this was his) is a good one: "Smart politicians know where there's a parade and get in front of it." (Especially if it's a lynch mob coming for them. Turn it into a parade.)

Also, I might make up something about creating a Virtue out of one's own former vices, which you're just itching to use again, having reclaimed your inflation-fighting virginity.

We've waited for so many rockets. In earlier times, I thought the signs wouldn't be so clear as they seem to be now. I look back now at my own lesser knowledge; I wonder if it has grown to be the match of events that are about to come upon us. One of these times, it will be.

Belgian@ NEMO#9105012/8/02; 09:23:38

Your question on the 1971 > 1980 rise of POG finds an extensive/elaborate answer in Trailguide's archives.
Forgive me for not leading you to the passage in particular.
This to force you to search for it those very precious archives. Sorry for being so rude, whilst meaning it all well with your question. You will find a magnificent answer. It wasn't any speculation but the (aborted) result of very deep fundamentals, still in play, now more than ever ! This to underline the (educative) importance of doing the research, yourself.

sectorThe Top Twenty Gold Bullish Fact List, No particular order#9105112/8/02; 09:40:38

Any additions or subtractions?

Gold-Bullish Convergences -- 12/8/2002

1. Japan is acting as if the G-3 has instructed them to "Fix things in "n" number of days...OR ELSE! The yen has been weakened recently to 124 with 133 as the gold demand threshold. Leaders there call for yen = 150.

2. The IM-balance of US trade and Congressional budget deficit run-rates [GAAP compliant] are $1 Trillion dollars per year and getting worse. M3 the last six weeks is up $216 Billion, a 22% annualized rate and 85% of the recent debt ceiling increase has been used up in 5 months.

3. Economic fundamentals are stunningly bad and getting worse. Pension fund woes are deteriorating at the large, unionized corporations e.g., -$3B, IBM.

4. The BIS metal-to-promissory gold is nearing 50/50, a point at which client banks cannot be sure of securing their metal from promissory-to-allocated status. The linear regression line, 50/50 touch-point is Dec 2002.

5. New gold markets are opening all over the world. China. Dubai.

6. The Gold Dinar launches within weeks.

7. The tight physical market: Gold Corp's 1 tonne order taking two months to fill, HSBC exiting the Hong Kong gold market and India demand solidly underpinning every down move in the price of gold. Silver Eagle production 10X below Nov 2001 levels, an apparent coin stock exhaustion.

8. The HUI is just off its low channel point; the DOW is just off its high point.

9. The Administration is planning an Iraqi oil grab that, in reality, may be the result of a larger dynamic--the final loss of readily available physical gold to sell against a rising world demand. The "Coalition" is illusory.

10. Many moderates in the Arab World may convert to Al Qaida if Iraq is invaded. This risks a financial retaliation from them involving gold.

11. The LBMA silver volume regression line hits zero volume in the first quarter of 2003. The Treasury is authorized to enter the silver market for 2003 Eagle production. Silver supply may be as tight as gold.

12. Real interest rates are below zero. The ECB's rate cut is gold-bullish.

13. Governor Bernanke's draconian "Printing press" comments of 11/26/02, lauding 1934 as the "Best stock market year" [After the dollar/gold devaluation of that year].

14. Derivatives netting legislation [The JP Morgan bailout] is being feverishly pushed on the Hill

15. Low Gold lease rates are at $USD backwardation, "Tripwire" levels – a highly unstable and unsustainable condition.

16. Large producer hedge book closures seem not to include metal deliveries but options leaving them exposed to a COMEX PM default.

17. The $USD is back below 106.

18. The central bank gold loans have now been shown to be ? 16,000 tonnes.

19. Japan and the US have announced "New currencies" for release in 2003. Anti counterfeiting seems a lame justification as superior interstitial printing methods already exist [Andrew Jackson's image].

20. Key "Strong Dollar" Proponents have abruptly resigned.

Mr GreshamDeflation-mongering#9105212/8/02; 09:47:23

Here's sector's link from Tampa.

Idiot level economics for mass consumption. And this is about as far as the chit-chat media will go in analyzing causes and effects.

"A little inflation is much better than deflation. If people think prices will be much lower later, and if savings accounts are paying almost nothing, then people will begin to hoard money rather than spend it or invest it. Products will go unsold even as prices fall, and investments in productivity will cease as it becomes harder to make business risks pay off.

"Reinflation needs to be done carefully because adding to the money supply does decrease the value of money already in circulation and in savings, but minor adjustments won't be noticeable.

"Producing money is not a new idea. Many countries have tried it with disastrous results, printing so much that people lost faith in the currency and rushed to exchange it for U.S. dollars or other currencies of more stable value. But done right, increasing the money supply is useful... "

G: Hmmmmm... that remark "if people think prices will be much lower later, ... then people will begin to hoard money rather than spend it" is the crux of their complaint about people's behavior under "deflation".

Toilet paper prices plunging? Me, I'm gonna wait and buy some when it's REALL-L-L-LY cheap! Using leaves for now...

I think people are expected to conjure up the mirror image of the inflationary 70s, when people said they were stocking up on items "before the price goes up any more". I think that kind of buying was minimal, though, and illusory in its effect. And so is the mirror image of deflation. People can't spend more quickly money they don't have (tapped-out credit), or save money they don't have.

What's happening now is the collapse of a bubble in money creation already having occurred. "Bad" money (money connected to entities with shaky credit and business prospects) being flushed out of the system. Creating even more and worse "bad money" to replace it can't work overall, except to profit a select few. Hmmmmm....

The editorial sounds stupidly contradictory. Why would people "begin to hoard money" "if savings accounts are paying almost nothing"? Aren't low interest rates on savings and low returns on investments telling people to SPEND their money now, not "hoard" it?

Unless the word "hoard" means something else, and "money" means something else. I can only guess that they're groping here (Return of the Repressed) for the Great Unmentionable word that we occasionally use here at USA-whatchamacallit. A flight out of Dollar savings, into hard savings.

If the anti-deflationists are going to complain about LOW interest rates, are they about to welcome HIGH rates??? Sheesh! That'll really get those "investments in productivity" cranking up!

I sometimes picture the Dollar Economy's dilemma as that Algebra (al-gibr -- Arabic word) problem about how many times the bee can fly back and forth between the two trains approaching a head-on at different speeds on the same track.

At some point, the bee runs out of flying room. (I always wondered about the rest of the problem -- what happens to the trains?)

They are really just running out of explanations for what is coming at us because the speculative financial casino has already removed just about all rationale for normal economic behavior, and is counting on people continuing using Dollars and Dollar instruments out of HABIT alone. The system is waiting for a shut-down and restart.

Call it the WINDOZE monetary system, if you will, and imagine it's just about to see the Blue Screen of Death. (Happens to me every couple days, with so many websites open on this old 'puter...)

Mr Greshamsector#9105312/8/02; 10:06:09

One powerful list! All of it right up-to-date, too. Synthesizes everything we've encountered over the past month. Additions? Just absorbing yours could take up the day, before any thoughts to add pop into mind... (Second thought: Who needs 'em? You've got Game-Set-Match right there.)
BoilermakerTreasury Secretary Lottery#9105412/8/02; 10:29:02

I'm thinking that Peter Fisher has been keeping a high profile lately for a reason. He told Rubin to stuff his request for some support for Enron's credit rating and now he's said the same to United's request for a bailout. Isn't he the one who was sniffing around when Bill Murphy et. al. went to Washington to blow the whistle two years ago? He sure knows where all the skeletons are hidden. Even though he's a Dem (and maybe because he is) he may get the nomination. Certainly he's one who won't have to get up to speed on the problems. Maybe he'll get whacked or maybe he'll be Treasury Sec. but I see something "interesting" coming for Peter.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Your understanding of gold may well be your North Star as you navigate the future#9105512/8/02; 11:41:50

ABCs of Au by MK

The ABCs of Gold Investing

"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Liberty HeadRE: ESF vs Long Term Trends#9105612/8/02; 11:52:16

After reading Sinclair's ESF discussion, I wondered about long term trends. What are they and where do they originate?

The first example of a long term trend popping into my mind, was government spending. It appears this trend will be upon us for some time to come. I read that our governments confidence-boosting fiscal stimulus package will include tax cuts. However, there was no mention of government spending cuts.
What bothers me the most, is that I do not see an immovable object anywhere near this irresistable force, of government spending.
I know, philosophically, balance is the nature of the universe. I guess I should be content to watch the drama unfold. It really is a great show!


Cavan Mansector#9105712/8/02; 12:08:35

And the #1 reason to won gold.....IT FEELS GOOD HELD TIGHTLY IN THE PALM OF YOUR HAND (actually, better than a five wood) Great List! Can you get on Letterman?
PizzReinflation and Gold#9105812/8/02; 12:17:05

For what it's worth, here's what I think is about to transpire.

Our fiat system cannot inflate without increasing debt, and monetary policy of lowering rates has just not worked, at least enough to be politically viable for a Bush/Republican reelection that is just a short two years out.

I'm not saying that lowering rates hasn't softened the economic situation, cause who really knows where we'd be if Mr. G. hadn't made all the cuts, but I don't think we'd still have positive to flat GDP (assuming the numbers are somewhat accurate).

Prior to 911, who would have thought that 9 or 10 rate cuts would not have us flying pretty high right now? I'd bet a maple or two that both Bush & O'Neil, et al, thought we'd be doing real fine about now, with a 6 to 12 month lead time for the money to flow thru the system. Ties in with Greenspans dream of beating the Kondratieff winter by flooding the world with greenbacks.

When you are as far out on the curve as we were in the Kondratieff cycle, the multi-trillion dollar losses that 911 triggered were enought to put us over the edge, effectively negating monetary policy. The debt, both corporate and governmental, and the shear amounts needed to continue the cycle even marginally have been too much. Corporations and government revenues got kicked in the teeth, and haven't been or will not be able to service it - period.

For the past year the deflation senario (30's style) has been forefront in most bear arguments. But there is one big difference. We were a creditor nation in the 30's and a debtor nation (big time) now. Makes a big difference. Japan has been able to stay out of the abyss for only one reason - they have had assets as a creditor nation, the same way we survived the 30's, AND EXACTLY THE SAME WAY WE (here) ARE PLANNING TO SURVIVE WHAT'S COMING. Get out of debt as best we can, have physical gold/silver, food, shelter, etc. (assets, wealth, and useable things). Unfortunately, the US government has not followed our advice.

Deflation is death to a debtor nation, so as I have said before a few times, it is not a option, economically or politically.

Since monetary policy has not worked, (and they know it now, but history books will blame 911 rather than the system IMHO) now we are all of a sudden hearing, and starting to see reinflation emerge as the solution. Well if monetary policy via cheap money doesn't work, then you must drop your currency in relation to everyone else, especially the US, since we import so much, and have to find some way to rebuild our manufacturing. Problem is that everyone else has the same idea - and if everyone tries it, the effects negate each other, but it will be a bumpy rollercoater ride to be sure.

They know competitive currency devaluations won;t work, so how do you devalue the worlds reserve currency? And more important, how do you devalue the buck to save the US economy without everyone else devaluing in response? I never have seen a good answer to that one (and I've evened e-mailed Puplava for his ideas on that subject). I think they have been trying to let the dollar fall, but we still have way too much debt out there internationally, and I don't think the rest of the world is ready yet to shoot themselves in the foot, both in valuations of the debt, and their exports to us.

So,I think the US is changing policy in this way. To reinflate we have to both lower the dollar in relation to all other major currencies AND shake out nearly all the weak corprations out there. Hence the canning of the economic team, no corprate bailouts, rush to war with EXPECTED retaliation that will crash the system rather quickly, shake out the weak corporate players, and leave the stronger corporation with eventual reinflation pricing power (no more supply side economic policy).

How do they devalue the buck without the negating effects of competitive currency devaluations? There's only one way.
They have to devalue against gold by letting it run. Think about it. Over the past year, how many countries are either leaning towards or have gold in the backround. The Eu with their 15% loose tie and mark to market (and this may be why their markets have been faring worse than ours lately), the gold Islamic Dinar, Russian gold coins, Japan and China's suspected accumulations???

I don't see any other way economically or politically.

And Bush better get his act together real quick, cause the problems are stacking up one hell of a lot faster than solutions or cabinet heads.


mikalRe: Mr. Gresham#9105912/8/02; 12:19:37

"They are just running out of explanations for what is coming at us..."
I doubt it. How would most media be able to explain changes to the public? What official spokesman, press secretaries, cabinet officials, etc. would suddenly stop toing the line to lose their job, reputation or life?

"...Because the speculative financial casino has already removed just about all rationale for normal economic behavior..." Isn't the opposite happening daily, hourly?
As markets lose credibility, prestige and layoff workers and as banks, brokerages and large financial and industrial corporations fend off lawsuits, investigations and rising debts. It seems Sector's 20 points for gold bulls has other compelling reasons, that if taken alone, wshould INCREASE the rationale for normal economic behavior. Normal depends on your perspective, so I hope you meant the current status quo "normal", not what we hope would be "normal" if stable, just standards were reimplimented?

"...and is counting on people continuing using Dollar and Dollar instruments out of HABIT alone." Out of habit alone? I think we use them because we have no choice. Because we accept the hospitality of our country as a privalage at least as much as a right, wishing to be peaceful, productive citizens, not revolutionaries, traitors or ingrates. So we cannot take, even habits for granted, especially since dollars will remain, not go to zero as some say. What kind of society do they envision? One that does not evolve? The dollar will. It is the money, however valued, that we trade to live, to serve, to achieve our dreams.

silvercollectorsector, Pizz#9106012/8/02; 12:31:22

The top 20 list and 'reflation & gold'

You guys are hot, more , more , more!!!!

silvercollectorBINGO #9106112/8/02; 12:34:25

"then you must drop your currency in relation to everyone else....Problem is that everyone else has the same idea.."

Thanks Pizz.

silvercollectorsector#9106212/8/02; 12:41:10

18. The central bank gold loans have now been shown to be ?16,000 tonnes.

This is this physical gold, yes? Not a facsimile thereof?
Anyway to validate such numbers?

NEMO me impune lacessitSunday poem#9106312/8/02; 13:14:53

One day I saw an extra large and mighty frightful Bull.
It reigned a field of fruitful grass and flowers very full.
"What kind of flowers are out there – You know, you´v seen it all"?
He answered somewhat harsh I thought:" You'll find both small and tall".
He added," You should walk the grass and find the blooms yourself"
"It's good for you to work and search – not pluck them from a shelf."
He turned around and walked away – and then I got a clue
To walk around was hard and tuff – he was a "Belgian-Blue"


Mr GreshamFor Your Own Good#9106412/8/02; 13:19:29

"According to Pearlstein:

"Government statistics show that average prices for products have declined in the past year, including those of cars, clothing, computers, furniture, gasoline and heating oil. So, too, have the prices for services such as telephones, hotel rooms and airplane tickets, even as costs for other services such as health care, housing, education and cable television continued to rise."

G: So we're gonna raise those prices on ya, for your OWN GOOD! Sounds like a tax to me.

Mikal: Of course, if I wrote more carefully, I'd get all my adjectives in. And then we could try to delineate the meanings (to you, me, and to Joe6P) of those adjectives.

"{Explanations": "Credible" explanations? Of course they'll keep producing explanations. (That link to info on Bernays founding of the PR industry yesterday was great.) They'll just be lousier explanations than ever. I was just pointing out what seemed to me an obvious contradiction ("low rates" "increased hoarding") that even Econ101 should see through. And of course, I think the explanations we work through here (closer to Mises and Austrian) are the accurate ones they avoid giving the public.

"Normal economic behavior": I had already used "rationale" and I was thinking "rational economic behavior" but didn't want to redundify myself ;). So by "rational" I mean "taking care of yourself the best you can." Something that people are led away from, by propaganda and by habit.

I also meant by "normal" starting up and engaging in profitable business enterprises, the foundation of our chances at economic improvement. However, in this time, I sense that 95% of those doing so would be walking into a deflationary (dollar currency implosion) trap, and get wiped out. Until, as you say, a more just and therefore stable monetary system surfaces, one that allows business planning and investment beyond next month's crisis, the alert entrepreneur ought to hold off and maintain capital in PMs. In other words, the fact (or at least my opinion) that holding "sterile metals" is the most "productive" business enterprise one could embark upon at this time (FOA's "outperform" opinion), is a harsh commentary upon the distortions caused by a flaky monetary regime.

We could say that "the rationale for rational economic behavior" is ALWAYS a constant, but that people's perceptions of it are not.

"Habit": Yes, the Dollar franchise will not go to zero. And Dollars will still be used. But at this point, faith in it is a rug about to be pulled out from under people's feet. I guess I was thinking more of "Dollar instruments" -- bonds, stocks, bank accounts (things that CAN go to zero) -- as savings or value-retaining vehicles -- and the habit of seeing them as such. I think we've been all over that field with FOA, so I'll just duck out now, having done more "defining my terms" than I usually care to -- a (smile) for your efforts at pursuing clarity, my friend...

Mr GreshamPizz#9106512/8/02; 13:30:52

Echo silvercollector's "hot hot hot".

A way to think about infla/defla/lala I think I've said before. Think of increase in numerical dollars TIMES decreasing quality of those $. Product is the TOTAL value held in your currency.

Because of debt overload they are attempting to head off liquidity crisis by increasing numbers of dollars, but they are losing quality at a greater rate. Thus, the overall total "weight" of dollars in the world has to LOSE bulk value. A form of defla- , leaving room in the total Value picture for something else to move into its place.

(A lot of interwoven causes and effects here, which occupy much discussion place here and on other forums, but basically a hydraulic system with lots of feedback loops.)

I could spin this out a bit more, but gotta run...

BoilermakerPizz#9106612/8/02; 13:41:21

Do you mean that the US will be transformed from the economic "top dog" to the "new China"? I suspect we have it coming but that will cause a bit of culture shock. Might get ugly out there.


RobotGuyShopper beware!#9106712/8/02; 13:47:37

A little story I would like to share with all of you for your benefit. I was with a friend in an antique shop, and I came upon a velvet box with what appeared to be two SILVER water goblets at a very reasonable price. Guessing that these were manufactured entirely of silver I purchased them. I should have been more stringent with my examination of these goblets, as nowhere did they contain the stamp .925 or similar metal content insignia. They did however contain the stamp E.P.N.S. of which I was unaware of it's meaning. After a little research on the internet, I discovered the meaning of E.P.N.S.

I am the proud owner of two brass goblets that have a marvelous coating of Electro.Plated.Nickel.Silver.

Oh well!!



ElGordoWe need reflation#9106812/8/02; 14:02:24

The Feds have been increasing money supply greatly for months.
Corporations and individuals are deeply in debt.

Debt levels everywhere at very high levels. Deflation will trigger massive bankruptcies throughtout economy and lead to depression.
With deflation you have to pay back debt with more expensive dollars.

With inflation you pay back debt with CHEAPER dollars. With
inflation it becomes possible to service debt. Keeps economy
functioning at least, avoids bankruptcies across the board.

Energy costs are always a big factor with regard to inflation
rate and it looks like energy costs are going up. If we attack
Saddam I doubt he will cooperate and leave oil fields in pristine
condition for us to take over. He will take as much with him
as he can.

One problem for Gold bugs, the CBs are not going to let Gold run.
If inflation shows up in statistics there will be an expectation
that interest rates will go up. That will make SM valuations
higher than they already are. Market would swoon.

The Feds want to pump money into the system, but not have it
show up as inflation in fed numbers. They have to reinflate but
don't want the public to "see" inflation. I don't think they can
pull it off. They have to reinflate and they can't raise interest
rates. Say HELLO GOLD. Hiyooo Silver.

More gold please! 8^)

PizzBoilermaker#9106912/8/02; 14:22:06

Good question.

Basically my answer is no, because I think the system will find some sort of equalibrium before then - be gold based, and maybe 10+ years for the transition. But I do see a 40 to 50% overall reduction in the standard of living for the bulk of the US (except for those who have hedged themselves properly (smile).

I think the US is being forced into this senario, kicking and screaming as we are starting to now, because under a gold standard, or even a modified standard, you can't defict spend to fight wars with out tubing your economy, and you don't get reelected in our system based upon poor economic performance.. The rest of the world does not want to see the US gain anymore hegemony or power, in fact they want to see us knocked back a notch or two (except for the radical Islamics - they want us destroyed, and they are really putting a monkey wrench into the works).

The world has us by the you know whats because of our debt, which we the people thrust upon our leaders by greed - hence the reason's for the 90's expansion that went beyond all reasonable rational because of our 4 year political system. And also the fact that there is an old and very true axiom - the downfall of democracy is the fact that the polulace has they keys to the treasury (or printing presses) through their vote. We've spent everything for the next few decades and no one want's to pay the bill - but we'll have to somehow.

Lower standard of living, less freedoms, and less power for the US is the future, and unfortuantely I think that's the upside.

Financially we are gravely wounded, just like a big game animal shot with a highpowered rifle. The thrashing around that's starting has the whole world very nervous.


ElGordoOoops I did it again-> lowered profit forecasts#9107012/8/02; 14:24:58

New York, Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks may be headed for another week of losses after breaking the Dow Jones Industrial Average's longest weekly winning streak in more than 4 1/2 years.

Disappointing sales forecasts from companies such as AOL Time Warner Inc. and Hewlett-Packard Co. and a government report showing an unexpected drop in jobs last month raised concern corporate profit growth will stall.

While reports on the service industry and factory orders suggested faster growth, some investors said they want to see rising sales and earnings before buying shares again.

``The economic statistics are much stronger than any evidence we're seeing from companies,'' said Jonathan Simon, who oversees $4 billion at J.P. Morgan Fleming Asset Management Inc.
Of the 1,173 companies that have given advance notice on their October-December earnings, 44.8 percent said they would miss forecasts, according to Thomson First Call. That's in line with the 45.6 percent recorded last year at this time, when the economy was in recession.

Profit estimates are falling. According to a First Call survey of analysts, the average forecast for fourth-quarter S&P 500 profit growth is 15 percent, while the average estimate for the first quarter of 2003 is 12.3 percent. That's down from 19.9 percent and 17.4 percent, respectively, as of Oct. 1, according to First Call.
To some investors, the lower growth estimates aren't necessarily bad news.

``Earnings come after you get the recovery,'' said Tom McKissick, who helps manage $80 billion at Trust Co. of the West Group Inc. in Los Angeles. ``What you're getting now is strong evidence that the recovery is coming.''

I thought you see earnings come back first and then you get a recovery. I feel sorry for investors in West Group Inc.

BoilermakerPizz#9107112/8/02; 14:53:59

Amen with the....

"And also the fact that there is an old and very true axiom - the downfall of democracy is the fact that the polulace has they keys to the treasury (or printing presses) through their vote. We've spent everything for the next few decades and no one want's to pay the bill - but we'll have to somehow."

US needs a kick in the head to get the survival mode working again. It's coming, we know it and God help the hindmost.


ElGordoDollar looks to weaken more#9107212/8/02; 14:58:35

104 level is key, if it drops below that, we are off to the
races. Hope Japan does not intervene.

R PowellSierra Madre#9107312/8/02; 15:02:16

Thanks for the response (91027) to my thoughts and questions (91013) on the Howe/Bolser work.

I agree entirely with your summation that " has been sold short massively, and there is no way it can be paid back." If we accept the 16,000 ton figure, then about half of the world's stash is gone. I still wonder how much physical the central banks still hold. If no physical ever left, then the whole game is one of fiat and can be settled in fiat. If not, wow! This downdraw was keep secret from most just as knowledge of the almost complete exhaustion of the world's silver supply over the last fifty or so years has not been a consideration for price determination.
However the final details work out, I can not imagine a scenario in which the POG or POS will stay low much longer.

Even while agreeing with you, I'm still curious as to the questions I asked. Maybe, as has happened uncountable times before, some facts will be brought to light in the future that will explain more of the whos, whats, wheres, how(e)s and whys.
Interesting week coming up, I hope it's enjoyable.

Black BladeInteresting Comments on WebFN#9107412/8/02; 15:33:55

I was watching WebFN a few minutes ago and there was an interesting discussion on the markets. The following are short notes from memory:

Derk Walsh of Walsh Trading made the comment that the Fed is fighting deflation and that is reflected by an increase in gold. He sees gold and silver headed higher as the DOW heads lower. He also noted that Fed Governor Fergusson stressed that the Fed is committed to fight deflation.

Charlie Nedoss of Peak Trading Group said that gold should go to $330 to $335 and perhaps higher by year-end. He expects the Bear Market to continue into the year 2018. He says that the jig is up because the consumer is "tapped out". He also noted that even though the weekly unemployment numbers look good, those numbers are always revised and therefore no one should really have been surprised that the unemployment number for last month looked so bad.

Al Palmer, an independent trader said he likes gold and silver. He motes that Fed Governor Bernanke specialized in "Monetary Policy of the Great Depression". He also notes that the stock market is about "squeezing the shorts and squeezing the longs" and that the "consumer is strapped".

Boris Furman of Equitec-Furman says that the stock market is run by market managers who "trade depending on how they feel that day".

Black Blade: Quite interesting and I tend to agree with most of what they had to say. These are guests that you will never see on CNBC, CNNfn, or Bloomberg.

a nation of oneRe: Boilermaker (12/8/02; 05:26:51MT - msg#: 91037)#9107512/8/02; 16:02:01

Quote: "We refuse to disturb our arctic wildlife but we will send our sons and daughters to war in a campaign that reeks of oil."

Some of us never permit our sons to be sent to fight such wars.

a nation of oneRe: Sierra Madre (12/8/02; 07:31:04MT - msg#: 91041)#9107612/8/02; 16:25:49

You say: "My view: sloppy writing=sloppy thinking."

Many would criticize you for this. Many people don't care whether they are well understood. They think it is the reader's job to make sense of any written material. But anyone who does try hard to be heard becomes well aware that a good understanding of at least the basic technical aspects of grammar is essential to any degree of competence in communicating, not just in writing, and that -what is really important- taking care in one's written expressions is one of the ways in which a man becomes more capable of having thoughts that are more in agreement with reality and worth expressing. It seems paradoxical but it's not. By caring more about the techincal aspects of one's own writing, one's thoughts become better formed, they become more clearly expressed, and better understood. For this reason, I agree with you. I wish more people did. It would make our world a less primitive place to live in.

a nation of oneRe: Pizz (12/8/02; 12:17:05MT - msg#: 91058)#9107712/8/02; 16:48:52

You say: "Deflation is death to a debtor nation,...."

--Repayment of any debt always requires that more public money be in demand than exists. Therefore repayment of debt causes deflation. Lending money at interest is itself the problem. It is a form greed both for the lender and for the borrower. Though its benefits seem justifiable, where debt is concerned, there will always be more losers than winners. That is inherent in the nature of the game. Nor can it be prevented by intellect, knowledge, skill, ability, government action or by anything else. Ultimately, borrowing is ruinous to any economy. This is why every nation has an interest in disallowing itself -and in disallowing all of its people- from becoming involved in debt to any degree: It destroys them. With regard to the fact that many people can be seen to benefit from being allowed to borrow money, it is a question of who shall benefit, not a matter from which all shall benefit, and it is also a question of onto whom shall the cost be allowed to harm. Debt by a few necessarily increases the poverty of many who are not among those few.

ElGordoJPM in the thick of it again#9107812/8/02; 16:49:25


Latest news and updates

_____From the TSA_____

• Traveler's Tips and Prohibited Items
• TSA Web Site

E-Mail This Article
Printer-Friendly Version
Subscribe to The Post
Sunday, December 8, 2002; 6:18 PM

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Arrangements for $1.5 billion in special financing that United Airlines needs to operate in bankruptcy were finalized early Sunday evening, preparing the way for an expected imminent court filing, according to sources familiar with the matter.

United is the second largest U.S. airline and a unit of UAL Corp. .

The expected Chapter 11 filing by Elk Grove Village, Illinois-based United will be the largest such bankruptcy by any airline. United is struggling with high costs, massive debt and poor revenue from cheap airline tickets.

Sources familiar with the matter told Reuters the final group of lenders for the debtor-in-possession financing are J.P. Morgan Chase , Citibank , Bank One and CIT Group . CIT was a late entry to the pool, replacing GE Capital.

GE was said to have wanted greater protection on their aircraft exposure to United, but the airline was able to line up the $1.5 billion without giving into such pressure.

Bank One, based in Chicago, has heavy exposure to United because it issues the airline's Mileage Plus frequent flyer credit card. The bank will be underwriting a $300 million loan and then it, and the other three, will split the rest of the $1.2 billion equally, sources said. That will give Bank One the heaviest exposure at a total $600 million.

a nation of onecorrection#9107912/8/02; 16:54:58

My statement, "...It is also a question of onto whom shall the cost be allowed to harm," should read, " is also a question of onto whom the cost shall be allowed to settle, and it is these who will be harmed."
CoBra(too)@ a nation of one#9108012/8/02; 16:55:57

This should not be construed as a criticism on your last post, as I would concur with your statement of grammatical clarity being a prerequisite for clarity of thought and expression. True enough.

For some of us including myself, though, your first language is our second or third or whatever. Hoping that you may forgive some of our shortcomings in technical clarity and that you use some imagination in what is intended to get across.

After all, aren't we all trying to uncover a monstrous and ongoing scheme of becoming financially dependent to the Powers That Be, that creepingly debased our money, values and liberty.

Liberate gold and the people will regain liberty. -cb2

ElGordo"No exports are leaving"#9108112/8/02; 16:59:33

Protesters Mark Support Venezuela's President
A Day After Gunmen Fired On Opposition March
Associated Press

CARACAS, Venezuela -- An opposition-led general strike has affected oil production and slowed exports in the world's No. 5 oil exporting country, President Hugo Chavez acknowledged Saturday.

"Production has already been affected ... and some oil fields have been closed," Mr. Chavez said at a news conference.

Opponents of Mr. Chavez called the strike on Monday to pressure the leftist former paratrooper into accepting a nonbinding referendum on his rule. Every day since, they have extended the strike another day. If the strike continues, Mr. Chavez said, "our clients, of course, would be affected."

It would be "a great risk for the country," added Mr. Chavez, who was elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2000 on promises to bring social justice to Venezuela's poor majority.

Managers at the hemisphere's largest refining complex, the Amuay-Cardon plant, said Saturday that daily production had fallen to about a quarter of its 940,000-barrel capacity.

Merchant marine captains have anchored their tankers outside ports across Venezuela. Many tug boats aren't working and dockworkers are refusing to load ships.

"No exports are leaving," said an official at the Amuay-Cardon plant, speaking on condition of anonymity. Conditions were similar at the oil hub of Maracaibo Lake in western Venezuela.

Attorney General Isaias Rodriguez said prosecutors boarded the Pilin Leon tanker, anchored in western Maracaibo Lake, and took Capt. Daniel Alfaro ashore to give a statement before a local judge.

Capt. Alfaro, who anchored the vessel in support of the strike, would return to the ship after appearing before the judge, Mr. Rodriguez said. Chavez adversaries on shore waved Venezuelan flags in support of the dissident captain.

Mr. Chavez assured foreign buyers that what he called a plan "to sabotage the heart of the Venezuelan economy" wouldn't shut down state-run oil monopoly Petroleos de Venezuela SA. Mr. Chavez said he would use the military to assure that oil exports, which account for 70% of Venezuela's gross domestic product and half of government revenue, wouldn't be interrupted.

Asked whether he might declare a state of emergency, Mr. Chavez replied: "It's a possibility, depending on the evolution of the situation."

The U.S. depends on Venezuela for more than 10% of its crude imports. A prolonged shutdown -- coupled with the threat of war in Iraq -- could drive U.S. energy prices sharply higher.

Heating oil and gasoline futures prices have so far risen only modestly, in part because foreign analysts see a possibility Mr. Chavez could be toppled. The two-day coup against Mr. Chavez in April lowered oil prices.

An oil industry shutdown and a general strike preceded an opposition march in which 19 people were killed on April 11. Dissident officers ousted Mr. Chavez on April 12. An interim government abolished the constitution, triggering a popular rebellion. Loyalist troops restored Mr. Chavez on April 14. Resentment over the April revolt still runs deep. Several people have been killed and dozens wounded in sporadic political violence since the coup.

Analysts were wary of where the protests were leading. "We're living a kind of civil Cold War, because we haven't taken to arms yet, but to move from cold to hot all you need is a single badly aimed gunshot," said political analyst Alfredo Keller. "We are moving toward violent confrontation."

Analysts warned the strike could begin affecting prices soon. "We can work around it for a couple of days. But if it goes on any longer than that, it could have a major impact on prices," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading in Chicago.

All seven directors of Petroleos de Venezuela offered their resignations to protest the board appointment of a Chavez ally, Alfredo Riera, said dissident manager Juan Fernandez. Mr. Fernandez said the directors claimed Mr. Chavez was again trying to politicize the oil behemoth, though he said the resignations were standard procedure for a board appointment.

Mr. Chavez's appointment of Mr. Riera and other allies to the PDVSA board earlier this year prompted a protest that paralyzed exports and helped provoke an April coup. Mr. Chavez later rescinded the appointments.
Above link has weather predictions for winter 2002-2003

ElGordoSmells of desperation-There goes the BUDGET!#9108212/8/02; 17:30:25

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Following the biggest shake-up of the Bush presidency, Republicans are considering a more ambitious economic stimulus package than first planned, including temporary capital gains tax cuts on new investments, congressional aides and lobbyists said on Sunday.

The White House has been discussing with lobbyists and lawmakers an economic stimulus package that could total $300 billion over three years, sources said.

President Bush has yet to name his new economic team, but the White House has made clear it expects the new Treasury Secretary to be a tax-cutting advocate who, unlike Paul O'Neill, will enthusiastically market the administration's stimulus package to Congress and the American people.

Advocates of a capital gains tax cut say it would boost the stock market and improve consumer and investor confidence, greatly improving Bush's re-election chances in 2004.

For months, fiscal hawks in the administration and Congress have warned Bush against proposing a stimulus package that would create bigger deficits, and it is unclear whether the president will be able to win enough support in the narrowly divided Senate to get every tax cut he wants.

Democrats are also ready to jump on tax cuts they see as a sop to the rich, favoring cuts for the poor and middle class.

But Republicans close to the administration say the Nov. 5 elections giving them control of Congress, and the replacement of O'Neill could create a window of opportunity to push through the more sweeping package sought by tax-cut advocates and the business community.

Rep. David Dreier, a Republican from California and one Bush's closest allies in Congress, is working with other Republican leaders to draft legislation that would slash capital gains taxes on investments for three years. To avoid a selloff in stocks, the cuts would only apply to equities purchased after the tax cuts take effect. And the assets would have to be held for a year to be eligible for the lower rates.


The proposal would slash capital gains tax rates from 20 percent to 15 percent for most people. For lower income investors the capital gains tax rate would drop from 10 percent to 5 percent. Capital gains tax rates for most corporations would temporarily fall to as low as 20 percent from the top corporate tax level of 35 percent.

"It would be a shot in the arm to investors to move out of money markets and back into equities," one lobbyist said.

"Into the valley of death rode the S&P 500
Swinging tax cuts from the saddle
They died by the Hundreds

Bush must think
The market is the economy
Who was it said
He is such a dummy?"

More gold please! 8^)

DummyANIPOG melt-down by Yen-rate#9108312/8/02; 17:34:42

at 19:30 ET TOCOM
POG 1287(yen)/gram -15(yen)

Yen-rate 123.20(yen)/$ 124.45(yen)/euro

ElGordoForeclosures soar nationwide#9108412/8/02; 17:47:10

In the three months ended in June, the Mortgage Bankers Association of America reports creditors nationwide began foreclosing on 134,885 mortgaged homes, or about four in every 1,000 -- the highest rate in the 30 years the association has been monitoring mortgages. Creditors' backlog of foreclosed homes reached 414,772, another record.
ElGordoJapan : "The economy is still in dire state"#9108512/8/02; 18:11:38

Tokyo, Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's stock benchmarks fell on concern that a government report today may show machinery orders, an early indicator of business investment, dropped in October. Electronic machinery makers such as Fanuc Ltd. declined.

Tokyo Electric Power Co., Takeda Chemical Industries Ltd. and other companies that are less likely to be affected by a global economic slowdown rose, limiting declines by benchmarks.

``The domestic economy is in very bad shape, and there is little hope for a recovery'' in demand, said Koichi Seki, an equity manager at Chuo Securities Co.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average shed 48.94, or 0.6 percent, to 8814.32, as of 9:24 a.m. Tokyo time. The Topix index declined 5.14, or 0.6 percent, to 855.51, with computer-related shares accounting for more than a 10th of the index's drop.

Nikkei 225 futures for December delivery shed 50 yen to 8860 in Osaka and lost 85 yen to 8865 in Singapore. In orders placed before the market opened today, overseas investors sold 1.6 million more shares than they bought through 12 brokerages.

Fanuc, the world's biggest maker of computerized factory equipment, declined 80 yen, or 1.4 percent, to 5,530. Advantest Corp., the world's biggest maker of equipment used to test computer memory chips, lost 150 yen, or 2.5 percent, to 5,780.

A government report later today is expected to show that machine orders for October fell 3.4 percent in October after rising 12.7 percent in September. Last week, an index of leading economic indicators pointed to the world's second-largest economy shrinking in six months. A separate government report showed that household spending fell in October.

The Bank of Japan's Tankan Survey of business confidence due Friday may show a majority of companies are pessimistic about business prospects, according to a Bloomberg News Survey.

``There's no incentive to buy in this kind of market,'' said Shuichi Hida, who helps manage $1.3 billion of assets at Sanyo Investment Trust Management Co. ``The economy is still in a dire state. There's no trigger to prompt us to go for domestic companies.''

Black BladeOil industry shutdown caps mounting crisis in Venezuela#9108612/8/02; 18:17:39


CARACAS - Venezuela's oil tanker fleet - and its teetering economy - floated at a standstill yesterday, crippled by a nationwide work stoppage in protest of President Hugo Chavez and threatening to send international petroleum prices soaring. Venezuela is the United States' third-largest oil supplier, providing about 1.5 million barrels per day and 10 percent of US consumption. A prolonged shutdown - coupled with the threat of war in Iraq - could boost US energy prices. Chavez has promised to keep oil supplies flowing in case of a US war with Iraq, and the United States has distanced itself from Chavez's opposition. But yesterday, all Venezuelan petroleum exports were reported shut off, causing some analysts to predict oil prices of $30 a barrel if the crisis continues. A day earlier, seven directors of the state oil giant Petroleum of Venezuela, known as PDVSA, offered their resignations in protest of Chavez's policies.

Black Blade: US oil inventories are at near record lows at a time the US is considering military confrontation against Iraq.

Black BladeCardboard Used as Economic Gauge #9108712/8/02; 18:27:53


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Like children poking the packages under the tree, some economy-watchers like to look at boxes for clues on how merry their Christmas is going to be. Reading the U.S. economy by these twinkling lights, Americans may find no more cheer in their immediate economic future than they have in the past couple of years. "We've either been in recession or we've been very close to recession from a box business standpoint for over two years," said Mark Wilde, analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. The "box business standpoint" is a pretty good stand-in for more formal economic indexes like industrial production data from the Federal Reserve Board or monthly purchasing managers' surveys, Wilde said. "The fit between box shipments and industrial production in the U.S., if you look over a 20-year period, is like hand in glove," he said. "Right now, the market is very, very optimistic about the economy. I don't see it, to be honest with you. Whether it's boxes or other things I cover (paper and other forest products), things are pretty lackluster out there."

Black Blade: The "Cardboard Box Indicator" eh? Comments from Boxman? It appears to be a weaker economy than Wall Street wants to admit.

Black BladeFord Found a New Form of Financing #9108812/8/02; 18:36:46


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co. has found a new form of financing to help ease its rising borrowing costs, but it hasn't found a magic bullet, analysts said. Ford, faced with rising pension costs and, a sagging share price and declining credit ratings said last month that its Ford Motor Credit Co. unit had opened up a new avenue for financing itself by selling $3 billion of auto loans to Bear Stearns & Co. Inc. Auto companies usually don't sell their car loans to investment banks. Instead they typically package loans into bonds themselves and sell them to investors.

Black Blade: Desperate times call for desperate measures. I wouldn't have a Ford (Lemons R Us) myself as I have never had any good experience with them. I have had a couple and the acronym is appropriate – "Found On Road Dead" or "Fix Or Repair Daily". The most durable I've had was Chevy and now I have a Dodge.

Cavan ManBlack Blade#9108912/8/02; 18:46:25

The domestic corrugated box business is not good. Sales of our products have been flat, that is to say continued negative, for the past two-three years. Industrial demand is not good. Consumption of our product by the food industry is steady. There is little support for current board levels. Prices are going down along with margins. The culprits are overcapacity, China and the strong USD. I'd be shorting US boxmakers at this juncture as Q 4 earnings will disappoint. I am hoping to get another three years out of the industry and join Boxnman on the sidelines.
Black BladeThe ‘Mature Worker’ Glut #9109012/8/02; 18:48:58

The pressures for early retirement are clear. But in an aging society, they're disastrous. We need to have a profound transformation of work.


Early retirement's lure remains. It's dangerous to generalize about any group as massive as everyone 45 to 65. But some things can be safely said: most of us have fewer illusions than at, say, 25; we have usually substituted attainable ambitions for unrealistic fantasies. For many, early retirement is still the thing. Plenty of us have huge enthusiasm for work. But others have had enough. They want out. Some are also being pushed out. Older workers span the spectrum of human potential—from deadwood to spark plugs. But many are expensive workers. They've received years of cost-of-living and merit wage increases. Their health expenses are rising. When companies want to cut costs—as they do now—the temptation to substitute younger (and cheaper) workers for older (and more expensive) workers is powerful. "Early retirement" programs multiply. Experience is expendable.

Black Blade: Of course most "mature workers" work because they must. The bursting of the "Tech Bubble" destroyed many retirements and many more will be destroyed. The New Great Depression will be much worse because we are no longer a rural agrarian society like we were (more or less) early in the last century. You can only look out for number one because no one else will. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver for portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities (it will likely come in handy). And don't quit (retire?) from your day job.

Black BladeRe: Cavan Man #9109112/8/02; 18:52:35

Thanks! I was going to direct the article toward you too, but I could not recall exactly if it was you who were in the same biz as Boxman. My impression is that it's going to get rather slow for durable goods orders inspite of the Wall Street spin. I found it interesting that someone finally develped an indicator based on "cardboard boxes". Cheers!

- Black Blade

a nation of oneRe: CoBra(too) (12/8/02; 16:55:57MT - msg#: 91080)#9109212/8/02; 19:54:57

Yes, you are right. I think of Belgian especially, and of others too. I would much rather read his fractured -though somehow very beautiful- English, than have him stop writing. His postings are enlightening. After I posted my message, I thought about this point and decided that others would realize this distinction, as you have done, so I did not change it. I agree that people who speak English as a second or third language should by no means be made to feel discouraged from saying what they think, no matter what their level of knowledge of the language, and I regret that I did not include this point in my post.
GoldCoaster@ Nemo and Belgian#9109312/8/02; 20:04:59

Hi Nemo,I just read a book called "The New World of Gold" by Timothy Green and came across this passage on p.185
"Unfortunatly their bluff was sometimes called,and Dubai's gamblers suffered some of the most serious losses when Gold shot from $ 300 to $ 500 in 1982(the last $ 100 of that rise was due to the closing out of a single Dubai speculator who lost a reported $ 64 Million).
@ Belgian.Never will I understand as much about Gold, currency's etc ,as most of you here do.But I have read a lot of books and talked to a lot of people and read a lot on the net and have all that knowledge condensed to something that I,as a ordinary working man,can understand.I ,too,do not want a explosive rise in the POG as I am buying as much as my paper earnings allow me.I would also not be fazed by a price of 280 dollars/oz.It would simply be cheaper for me to buy more.However,I do have a large proportian of my paper in Gold paper and want to buy more physical with the profits,and a POG of 280 would hurt me.(Unless our A$ drops big).Long term I feel that it doesnt really matter as I dont want any number of $papers for my Gold.
Regards and thank you for your posts.I read all of them.

Aristotle<opens door and stamps feet clean on the mat> Glad to see you've got the fire burning!#9109412/8/02; 20:10:12

In here you'd never know it was cold and snowy outside. Somebody slide me a mug!

Black Blade, since you're closest to the door I overheard your conversation first. A couple of quick comments before I work my way deeper into the room.

You said, "You can only look out for number one because no one else will."

I sure agree with that. Even though we may at times find ourselves in the good graces of a benefactor, it's still a good motto to live by -- leaving as little as possible to happy (or unhappy) chance.

Then you said, "As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt..."

I think I'd be less quick to serve that one up as a truism. I'd leave the choice to each person based on their circumstances and their understanding of what's likely to befall their domestic currency and the interest-rate "price" of their money as balanced against their real assets and expected income stream.

If I may say so, in my time I've built up a nice line of credit, I draw upon it all the time, and have been very nicely served by doing so.

The key thing is for people to think *THINK* about their circumstances rather than relying heavily upon a blanket statement like this that sounds good but may not in fact be in their best interest at this stage in the game.

For a quick example, I'm sure there are a number of people that can easily see the advantages in having made an important and sizable purchase/investment with a long-term credit line of borrowed money at low fixed rates upon the shoulders of a rising head of inflation. To have delayed the purchase would have entailed both opportunity losses from the prolonged lack of the item, and also missed opportunity to settle the terms of the loan with cheapened future currency.

No one can predict how exactly the future will unfold, but I for one would be loath recommend to someone that they spend down their vital wealth and savings in order to try to retire any and all of outstanding capitalization of credit (debt) at this juncture.

Again, the most important thing is that people *think* about the situation at hand as it might apply to them personally within their own country.

Here's one blanket financial statement I can give without a second thought.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Sierra MadreAbout my comments on "grammar"...#9109512/8/02; 20:12:15

Maybe I should have said nothing. I directed my attention to Mr. Sinclair, specifically. In no way, absolutely, do I wish to reflect upon postings by those who do not have complete command of the language! I enjoy all posts written by Belgian, for instance; especially delightful are his expressions colored by French as a first language. If I had to post in French - what a mess that would be!


The change in the Treasury and the Financial Advisor to the Presidency, I think should be considered also, in the light of the recent visit by Mr. Greenspan to Mr. Ortiz, the Governor of the Bank of Mexico. Why would Greenspan have to spend three days coming to Mexico, to talk face-to-face with Ortiz? Only something very important could bring Greenie from Washington and N.Y.

My take follows Sinclair's:

Globalization is over; economic nationalism is IN.

Tariffs will be going up around the U.S., against Europe and Asia. (But, not against Mexico and Canada! That was the reason for the Greenspan visit).

Tariffs will bring in taxes, which will be needed.
Tariffs will reduce imports by making them more expensive, and thus help control the trade deficit.
Tariffs will protect American industry, make it more profitable, and it will begin hiring employees again.

Imports at dirt-cheap prices were "importing deflation". Deflation is feared like the plague: "No deflation! Stop the cheap imports that are killing our remaining industry!"

Tariffs on imports will raise their prices, help American goods sell at higher prices (pricing power?)

The strong dollar was bringing in deflation in the form of cheap goods. No more. WEAK DOLLAR!

Gold? It will go up, in terms of weaker dollars. Will gold rush upwards in price, out of control? That remains to be seen. It's conceivable. Investors around the world may ask themselves, at what point will the cheapening of the dollar stop? Once you start that cheapening, you kill a good reputation and...goodness knows where things will end up.

OTOH, if gold was pegged below $325, it will be possible perhaps to re-peg it at $400. Lots of investors (weak hands) would be very satisfied to sell out at $400 and count their winnings. (Not me!) So, we can also think that it would be easier for JPM to hold the line at $400, than at $325 - the $325 trench has been practically overrun and cannot be recovered except at enormous cost.

This does not take into account the possible massive losses on derivatives for the bullion banks, when the $330 price is reached, which GATA has mentioned. I guess JPM passes the loss on to the FED or Treasury, and goes about business as usual.

Reduced imports via tariffs are necessary now, since the trade deficit dollars going abroad are perhaps not being reinvested in the U.S., as happened during the past decade. The tariffs are necessary to prevent a total crumbling of the dollar, as foreigners sell their dollars instead of reinvesting them in U.S. stocks and bonds.

I think what is important, is that a watershed has been reached. A very important policy change is imminent. Globalization is out. Nationalism is in. Devaluation of the dollar is about to take place. This can be called the funeral of the P.A. Volcker strong-dollar instituted back in 1979, at the cost of a 21% prime rate.

All criticism of this analysis is welcome!


Black BladeRe: Aristotle – Debt#9109612/8/02; 20:33:19

Of course one should always view debt load from where they are in regard to their personal situation. From my point of view of course is that being debt free always equates to freedom from slavery. I owe no man and do as I please. And yes, I do have a very healthy line of credit should I wish to draw upon it, but then why should I pay for the privilege to be "beholdin" to some one else? There is a certain peace of mind by paying as you go and having no one there to yank your chain. I constantly find myself listening to friends drone on about being in debt, having bills that are due, and worried about keeping their jobs. I guess what I am saying is that I have liberated myself from any burden from any financial obligation. From a mental health perspective, being debt free and doing as I please whenever I wish is invigorating. Oh yeah. I use plastic all the time, but I pay it off in full every month (sometimes over pay for future expenses).


- Black Blade (a Free Man)

sector@ silvercollector -- The Information War: About the 16,000 tonnes of central bank gold#9109712/8/02; 20:35:01

The answer is yes. They have loaned and then sold for cash 16,000 of their...

respective nation's treasury's gold.

The Bank for International Settlements data from Tables E-49 and E-41 of the Triennial Reports [1995, 1998, 2001] confirm this value. The Triennial Report surveys all the central banks, not just the G-10 group. To get the whole story go to

"Gold Derivatives: Moving Towards Checkmate".

Summed up, it says "The central banks of the West have sold at least half of their gold in order to suppress the price of what they advertise to be a freely-traded commodity.

Now that the gold loan facts are out, it will be increasingly difficult for the cabal to exert downward pressure on the gold market since astute speculators are armed with crucial information regarding the intentions and status of the central banks heretofore clandestine market interventions.

How could a large hedge fund NOT be in gold at this stage?

ElGordoGold chart#9109912/8/02; 20:50:04

Broke above triangle, lets hope this is a potential breakout.
silvercollectorsector#9110112/08/02; 20:59:39

Thank you Sir, I will check out Mr. Howe's latest.

I recall someone, perhaps 2 years ago, mention that the gold 'management' scheme will end in pure physical supply/demand fundamentals.

If the 'west' has loaned out 16,000 tonnes there must not be much left, however they count their gold. We must also recall the WGC 'offical' held gold, still at 33,000 tonnes. It is also duly noted that gold 'on hand' plus gold 'in someone's else's hands' equals the total.

The 'loaned' gold may be in 'my hand' or in 'your hand' but it sure can't be in both our books!! What do they call that again, double-counting, hee hee.

That leaves someone very short, the 'short' I like to see, short physical.

sectorThe Part that "Rich" doesn't understand...about the central bank gold loans#9110212/08/02; 21:00:00 that the central bank requires a specified contract for a specified gold asset... order to establish a "Forward or swap" agreement. One need not get into the exigencies of option straddles, balanced delts hedges or any other exotics.

The central bank gold loans are unambiguously stated to be the values shown in their BIS Triennial tables E-49 and E41. These dollar values are then converted to tonnage using the mark-to-market end-of-period gold prices.

The gold loans are 16,000 tonnes at June 2001, exactly as Frank Veneroso calculated them to be using completely different means.

It is a very simple, if astounding, fact. The amount of central bank gold "At risk" is equal to the amount they have already sold...16,000 tonnes.

The cbs have sold half their least.

Liberty HeadTariffs as Enemies of Freedom#9110312/08/02; 21:03:57

Sierra Madre,

I enjoy reading your posts. I stumbled over Sinclair's syntax a few times myself. Fallen trees are part of the wilderness experience. I still love the forrest.
I agree that more tarrifs are on the way. I disagree that they are a good idea.
I also have a problem when tax policy discussions are divorced from spending policy discussions. It sets off my BS detector.
I have included a link to the otherside.


DummyANIRE:Pizz (12/8/02; 12:17:05MT - msg#: 91058)#9110412/08/02; 21:04:18

TOCOM:Gold Future 2003/02 declined 1284(yen)/gram down –23(yen)=nealy $–6 as of 12:50 Tokyo time; Yen-rate 122.75yen/$

I remember LTCM-crisis at August, 1998. According to Astrology-Mundane chart, overvalue of YEN-rate will be continued until middle of 2004.

sectorNote the blinding complexity of "Rich's" Arguments on Barrick's hedgebook#9110512/08/02; 21:04:57

What this appears to be is...

...the rapid three walnut shell shuffling of a master carneyman.

Now....where's the pea?

DummyANIRE:DummyANI (12/08/02; 21:04:18MT - msg#: 91104)#9110612/08/02; 21:08:38

I'm sorry. Charactores are changed.

TOCOM:Gold Future 2003/02 declined 1284(yen)/gram down minus23(yen)=nealy minus6 $ as of 12:50 Tokyo time; Yen-rate 122.75yen/$

steadyquestion#9110712/08/02; 21:14:00

how will the usa via the treasurey and the federal reserve devalue the currency? i dont get it! is it something they just do? i understand about printing money devalues it over time but how does a govt devalue moeny in one fell swoop!
is this where the colored money comes in?

silvercollectorAri/BB#9110812/08/02; 21:20:30

Are we inching back towards the deflation/inflation debate?

In a very basic discussion we have been told deflation makes debt bigger, inflation makes debt smaller. Would I be too far of in saying that as fast as they (TPTB) create 'money' it is vaporizing and thus we are squarely in the middle of this inflation/deflation quagmire? Is this the so-called stagflation, stagnating money supply/demand?

It seems to me that if I was in the inflation camp I might acquire a large loan at today's 'wonderful' interest rates, lock it in as low and as long as possible and buy a basketful of coin.

Is this too far-fetched?

ElGordoNew Treasury Sec #9110912/08/02; 21:23:39

President Bush has chosen CSX Corp. Chairman John W. Snow as the new treasury secretary, administration sources said yesterday.

Snow, who was a Transportation Department official in the Ford administration, has accepted the job and will be nominated as long as nothing disqualifying turns up in the final stages of the White House's legal and financial review, the sources said.

Snow is chairman, president and chief executive of CSX, a freight and transportation conglomerate that is based in Richmond and operates the largest rail freight network in the eastern United States.

Snow is to replace Treasury Secretary Paul H. O'Neill, who was fired by Bush last Friday along with chief economic adviser Lawrence B. Lindsey. The administration is attempting an urgent midterm correction to boost the flagging economy as the 2004 campaign season begins.

Administration officials said Snow, 63, was picked partly for a skill that they saw lacking in O'Neill: an ability to communicate Bush's policy clearly on television and Capitol Hill. The officials also cited Snow's familiarity with Washington policymakers and his record in business beyond New York, which the White House refers to as "Main Street experience."

ElGordoI doubt the administration will announce major trade tariffs#9111012/08/02; 21:38:09

Sierra- if the US goes for big tariff increases that would
start a trade war that would kaput the world economy for sure.

Japan and others are trying to weaken their currencies to get
a cost advantage for their exports. Japan is buying dollars and
selling yen to try and prop up their export economies.

US corporations are pushing for a weaker dollar to help our own
exports. And so it goes. US, Europe and Japan are about done
with rate cuts, although Europe has a little room to cut more.

Hopefully money will now choose Gold instead of all this
beggar thy neighbors currency burning.

Shakespeare: Neither a borrower or a lender be.

silvercollectorsector#9111112/08/02; 21:39:52

I see Rich's notes and I see your response. I want to understand this crystal clear. Is 16,000 tonnes of western CB
a)physical gold

b)paper gold

c) derivative gold

d) other gold


a)loaned out and reported as on their books as current assets presumably to be returned

b) loaned out and reported on their books as assets and presumably never to be returned

c) loaned out and reported on their books in another form ie; deep storage gold and will it be returned/replaced.

d) loaned out, sold and reported on their booked as assets and presumably to be replaced/bought back.

e)loaned out, sold and reported on their books as assets and presumably never to be replaced/bought back.

f) loaned out and sold and reported on their books as another form and to be replaced/bought back.

g) other.

If this is physical gold loaned out and not rolled over (is this sold?), why is there not audit of this? How can WGC still maintain the US in good standing with 8,000+ tonnes?
Because the government simply says there is? Back to Fort Knox/Treasury/Audit thing again, yes?

silvercollectorsector#9111212/08/02; 21:46:03

"The central banks of the West have sold at least half of their gold in order to suppress the price of what they advertise to be a freely-traded commodity."

How many Western CB's have this kind of tonnage except for the US? It seems to me that if 16,000 tonnes has been sold it puts a disportionately large sum of the shoulders of the US, yes?

ElGordoNations can devalue currency by simply declaring it so#9111312/08/02; 21:49:51

Steady- I believe Mexico has devalued their currency several
times this century. You wake up one morning and the banks
have a new official exchange rate. The government simply
pegs their currency to others overnight.

In Mexico you wake up, read the headlines in the paper and all
the money you have in Pesos in the bank is worth 50% less.
Thats why its hard to keep capital in certain banking systems.
If your country has a reputation for doing this ,citizens, the smart
ones, keep their assets in overseas accounts in other currencies.
Its the little people who get hurt.

Mexico did this a few years back to get an advantage they were
losing to asia. If Mexico wants to keep their cheap labor manuf
advantage over others, say in asia, you have to make your workers
work cheaper. Its not helping much now I hear, Mexico is losing
factories to China anyway. China is sucking jobs out of Japan
and just about everywhere.

China will determine the world minimum wage. They export
unemployment and deflation around the world. And they have
hundreds of millions of people ready to keep taking jobs from
other countries. Yikes.

ElGordoChina does it again- eating your lunch#9111412/08/02; 21:58:18

Beijing, Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. Chairman Sanford Weill said in March he'd like to see 300 Citibank branches in China someday. At the rate China has let his company expand, Weill's wish won't be realized until the year 2302.

A year after joining the World Trade Organization, China is balking at boosting foreign investors' access to its 1.3 billion consumers. While local sales have risen at Citigroup, General Motors Corp. and other overseas companies, regulations aimed at protecting domestic companies are curbing their next phase of expansion: selling a wider range of goods and services in more Chinese cities to compete with local rivals.

``There are a lot of expectations that have been there for over 20 years, and things really have not moved,'' said Ernst Behrens, chairman of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in Beijing and head of Siemens AG's China business, referring to the opening of the banking, insurance and telecommunications markets. ``It's a very serious concern.''

The delays mean China is reaping more benefits from WTO membership than its trading partners are. China's economy, Asia's second-largest, grew 7.9 percent in the first three quarters of 2002, the fastest of any large world economy.

The U.S. trade deficit with China, bigger than with any other country, widened to $73.6 billion in the year to September from $61.2 billion a year earlier as China's exports to the U.S. rose 19 percent. That helped push the total U.S. trade deficit to a record in August. The 15 countries of the European Union had a 20 billion euro ($20 billion) deficit with China through August.

Black BladeBush Picks CSX Corp. Chief for Treasury #9111512/08/02; 22:10:00

Railroad Executive Is In Final Review Stage


President Bush has chosen CSX Corp. Chairman John W. Snow as the new treasury secretary, administration sources said yesterday. Snow, who was a Transportation Department official in the Ford administration, has accepted the job and will be nominated as long as nothing disqualifying turns up in the final stages of the White House's legal and financial review, the sources said.

Black Blade: All together now! "I've been working on the railroad, all the …."

Black BladeWhat to ask before signing up for a new card #9111612/08/02; 22:19:44


LOS ANGELES (CBS.MW) - The credit card offers come pouring through your mailbox faster than you can open them these days, especially if the credit agencies deem you especially worthy. You may be automatically approved for a number of offers, be it a zero-percent introductory interest rate, free air miles, points for purchases, rebates on gasoline and more. The perks can be attractive, but knowing basic facts about your card is what saves you money. "People don't look into credit cards. They look at offers and advertising and if they can get it, they take it," said Howard Dvorkin, CPA and president of Consolidated Credit Counseling Services.

Black Blade: Yeah, I went to Wal-Mart on my way home this afternoon and thet wanted me to sign up for a credit card. They were willing to give me a "free" bottle of Sam's soda pop. Hmmm…

sector@ silvercollector The central bank gold loans#9111712/08/02; 22:19:44

What you see isn't EXACTLY what you get

A forward or swap means that central bank gold [Physical gold in bars and ingots] have been swapped with another party. The other party owns it. They have title to it. It may or may not reside in the borrower's bank vaults.

According to extant IMF accounting rules, BOTH banks get to say they have title to the same gold. This is a flat misrepresentation and the IMF statistical accountants know it and said so at their Santiago, Chile October 1999 conference on gold loans. Links to this conference are in the goldensextant article in question. This is "Double counting" and it clearly is a "Double Cross" designed in the first instance to mislead.

It is very clear. The central banks have loaned through swaps and forwards, half of their gold to parties that then sold the gold for cash. The sellers must return the physical gold or an equivalent forward or swap contract to the central banks in order to cancel the derivative obligation they hold.

Rent a car and then sell the car for cash. You can't walk away from the loan agreement without returning the car. It's gold in this case.

Concentrate ONLY on the original gold loan. The borrower has obtained title to physical gold and then converted it into COMEX and/or LBMA paper contracts in exchange for cash. The borrower then puts that cash to use elsewhere and prays [These days] that the value of the derivative he holds DOESN'T GO UP since he must make up the difference when the contract is cancelled.

The problem is that the original gold now belongs not to the central bank but to the borrower but the borrower(s) can't possibly return 16,000 tonnes of gold without rocketing the market into the thousands of dollars per ounce.

The Bundesbank used to report gold bullion. Now it reports gold and "Gold receivables" in the same column. This is NOT GAAP compliant procedure.

They are acknowledging that some or even ALL of their gold is loaned out. The US doesn't yet do this even though the Fed's own transcripts reveal [Feb 1995 FOMC Mattingly] that the US has gold swaps in place.

Half of the central bank gold has been loaned to others who reasonably can't get it back. It's gone. Someone else holds the receipt for half of central bank gold. This is why Ernst Weltke wants to "Sell" more Bundesbank gold. It is not really to be a sale… it is to be a DELIVERY. Just as the Bank of England "Dutch Auction" in all likelihood was a delivery. The owner wants the physical gold currently in the Bundesbank for which he holds the receipt and Weltke needs a plausible way to deliver it from the vaults so he arranges the sale of an asset that has already been loaned then sold.

This, in my opinion, is why the West Point Depository, New York "Bullion Reserve" was reclassified to "Custodial Gold". Simple. The new owner of Treasury West Point gold wanted a public acknowledgement that the Treasury gold really belonged to someone else and no longer belonged to the Treasury. 1,700 tonnes of gold. 54 Million ounces.

Black BladeUS Market Indicators#9111812/08/02; 22:36:26

US market index futures are trending lower, Gold is lower but off the lows, the USD is crumbling, and oil is surging. Under the circumstances it is very odd that Gold would be lower.

- Black Blade

sectorSpeculations on John Snow, SECTREAS Designate#9111912/08/02; 22:48:18

Will he continue the "Strong Dollar" Policy?

Very hard to tell at this juncture.

We do know he's not a Wall Streeter and he has zero international banking experience. A wiz in transport.

It does seem odd that yet another "Outsider" would be picked for Treasury unless all the real decisions are being made by Alan Greenspan.

Whatever new economic plan the President is cooking up, Wall Street might be a bit on the outs. But it's way too early to tell.

To end the "Strong Dollar" the Administration needs lots of policy fog to hide in.

Buy gold first, then watch for fog.

DOWNUNDERBOMB BOMB IRAQ - - - - ( or 2-4-6-8- Who do WE appreciate)#9112012/08/02; 22:58:02

The following is not an original but was sent to me this morning by E/Mail by a very switched on financial analyst. Hope you all enjoy:

Bomb Bomb Iraq:

Sung to the tune of -
"If You're Happy And You Know It Clap Your Hands"

If we cannot find Osama, bomb Iraq.
If the markets hurt your Mama, bomb Iraq.
If the terrorists are Saudi
And the bank takes back your Audi
And the TV shows are bawdy,
Bomb Iraq.

If the corporate scandals growin', bomb Iraq.
And your ties to them are showin', bomb Iraq.
If the smoking gun ain't smokin'
We don't care, and we're not jokin'
That Saddam will soon be croakin',
Bomb Iraq.

Even if we have no allies, bomb Iraq.
From the sand dunes to the valleys, bomb Iraq.
So to hell with the inspections
Let's look tough for the elections
Close your mind and take directions,
Bomb Iraq.

While the globe is slowly warming, bomb Iraq.
Yay! the clouds of war are storming, bomb Iraq.
If the ozone hole is growing
Some things we prefer not knowing
(Though our ignorance is showing),
Bomb Iraq.

So here's one for dear old daddy, bomb Iraq,
From his favorite little laddy, bomb Iraq.
Saying no would look like treason
It's the Hussein hunting season
Even if we have no reason,
Bomb Iraq.

sector@ silvercollector A final word on "Notional Values"#9112112/08/02; 23:07:10

They describe the value of derivatives bought with borrowed gold

The value of borrowed gold [forwards and swaps] is real value and real tonnage.

16,000 tonnes as of June 2001. The 16,000 tonnes of loaned gold is not notional value.

To imply, as some do, that the whole of the derivatives structure is of no monetary consequence is belied by the fact that the Fed and it's acolytes are feverishly pushing for derivatives netting legislation. Why would they need it if there is no real value associated with derivatives?

GoldnSilver2002Well,well the tide turns#9112212/08/02; 23:32:29

This is simply a concession to the inevitable.They can hammer gold but now they are simply containing it..for now.They give everyone a little longer to get cheap gold.Unfair to the diehard goldbug but compassionate to those unfortunate many who still dont have it and soon wont be able to afford it.Sometimes we forget Bush inherited one hell of a mess.He has tried his best to do everything he can to delay the inevitable crash and has done well but alas the damage was too deep.I see an administration preparing to let gold and inflation fly in an attempt to avoid a japan like death.Lets face it,after this christmas the consumer will be tapped,the economic news will be bad,gold will be number one for 2002,iraq will be in full swing and gold will have begun its next leg.
Sierra MadreSteady: your question, "How does the U.S. devalue the dollar?"#9112312/08/02; 23:35:45

That's a very good question, indeed!

Since the world is on a dollar standard...the countries that do not produce dollars, can devalue against the dollar. But the US, how can it devalue its own money against the monies of the rest of the world, that use the dollar as their reserve currency?

It seems to me, that the US cannot devalue the dollar, in fact, unless there is something else, gold, against which to devalue. Then, what is the recent fall in the value of the dollar we have been watching? Is it not a devaluation?

Perhaps the answer runs this way: yes, it is a devaluation, but it comes from action on the part of foreigners, not from action on the part of the U.S. authorities. The markets can register some fluctuations in value, but a deliberate, sharp devaluation as a policy move by the US government, cannot be done, in the absence of gold as a reference. I am searching for understanding....Anyone have any thoughts on this?

This leaves only TARIFFS as a protective and stimulative measure open to the US economic authorities.

The political pressure to implement tariffs will become unbearably strong. They WILL come. Perhaps my timing is off.


AristotleReturning to the door after making the rounds and swiping some food from the dining hall#9112412/08/02; 23:38:09

Hey there, sector, I could help overhearing on my way past. Let me throw you a bone -- food for thought.

You said to silvercollector, "The value of borrowed gold [forwards and swaps] is real value and real tonnage.
16,000 tonnes as of June 2001. The 16,000 tonnes of loaned gold is not notional value."

Lemme break somethin' gently to ya, champ. If it's still sittin' in the CBs' own vaults, the nature of the quantity in question is indeed *NOTIONAL* for all practical purposes.

Please... **think** on it before you dismiss or react.

Back into the snow I go...

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

SpartacusJapan's Shiokawa Sees `Imbalance' Among Currencies #9112512/9/02; 01:39:36

Tokyo, Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) --- The yuan is too weak given the strength of the Chinese economy, said Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa, and that's part of an ``imbalance'' among the world's major currencies.
He added that the issue of ``imbalances'' among the dollar, euro, yen and yuan may be discussed at a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven industrialized nations early next year. ---

Topazsector, Mr G. All.#9112612/9/02; 03:19:03

What an asset to this Forum you are sector...great info yesterday.
Mr G, There's quite a few of us Aussie's here from time to time - Downunder, Golden Bear, Gold Coaster to name a few - this "international" participation bodes well for the world reserve currency yes?

As "American" is my second language (ha!) I can sometimes be found wanting in the Grammar dep't, in fact, the few times I've needed to reference a previous post of mine (after a few days) I'll re-read it and think "that was gibberish"...but at the time it seemed quite OK.
My hat goes off to the many foreign speaking (esl) posters who, to a man (woman), express themselves impeccably, are a credit to themselves and generally display an in-depth knowledge of the subject matter far in excess of we their western peers. Cudos one and all.

Black BladeMarkets Generally Down#9112712/9/02; 03:25:46

The Hang Seng and Nikkei 225 are taken lower while the Euro markets are mixed so far in morning trade.

- Black Blade

TopazPositions Vacant.#9112812/9/02; 03:29:39

Wanted......Fat Lady, preferably able to hold a tune.
Applications close Friday, December 13.
Forward app'n to TRES-SEC Washington.

Black BladeDollar Falls; O'Neill Replacement Seen Letting Currency Weaken#9112912/9/02; 03:45:12


London, Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell against the yen on speculation U.S. President George W. Bush's next choice as Treasury secretary will let the dollar weaken to boost exports from the world's biggest economy. Bush chose CSX Corp. Chairman John Snow to replace Paul O'Neill, who was ousted on Friday, the Washington Post reported. Bush is seeking to accelerate efforts to revive the economy before the presidential election in 2004, analysts said. Unemployment rose to 6 percent last month, matching April's eight-year high. ``Bush's new economic administration will be geared to short- term growth and employment generation,'' said Jeremy Stretch, a currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets. ``It will probably be at the expense of a strong dollar.'' Also, ``U.S. industry needs a weaker dollar, and the appointment of Snow suggests the U.S. may let it continue to slide,'' said Masa Naito, senior vice president of international equity investment at Fuji Investment Management Co., which manages about 1 trillion yen ($8.1 billion).

Black Blade: A weaker US dollar is not only desirable but absolutely necessary. Even so, it is much too late to stave off the coming storm.

BTW, there's a rumor of bank selling in London amid strong buying by institutions. A real tug-o-war may be developing. One suggestion is thta JP Morgan may be attempting to sell down gold tonight. Hmmm... We'll just to wait and see. Meanwhile gold is down 70 cents.

BelgianRe#9113012/9/02; 03:46:02

@ Goldcoaster : T. Green has a strong tendency to "romantisize" Gold, in his writings. His writings are a servitude to the Anglo-Gold financiers and therefore strongly biased. But, how objective can one possibly be, us included ?
The main risk for holding/trading any Gold-paper is THE IRREVERSABLE RUNAWAY GAP in the POG (VOG). Paper-gambling is OK for as long as "cycles" (cyclettes) continue to exist. I stopped betting on this given of the past.

Sierra Madre # 91095 + Pizz # 91058 : Waw, what a great combination of postings !

Devaluation...permanent depreciation...debasing...purchasing/pricing rates...
There is ONE constant in these actions, the Pizz's constant : THEY ALL WANT THE SAME THING !
*All* = Those (East to West) who do and desire to play within the globalisation. They all want to compete on the same "monetary" trickery. That's why this competition is destructive and therefore final.

Protectionism = an act of desperation and contagious.

The euro did stop the negative spiral of competitive currency depreciation within the former 12 European states and intends to offer this remedy to another 10 new Euroland-candidates. So, there will soon be 3 well defined, currency-blocks, left. Each one with a very specific dynamic : 1/ The dollar as reserve currency. 2/ The euro (in the center)with a new concept behind it. 3/ Asian currencies still having a big fight with/against the dollar and amongst themselves (Japan/China).

The 3 major currency blocks can only, (1) further "devaluate" against each other, alternatively...or (2) ALL TOGETHER devaluate in tandem AGAINST GOLD ! Where does the former (1) stops on its limits and does the latter (2) starts ?

In other words : Will we continue to live with the status quo of alternative strong and weak currencies or will something else emerge ?
As an Eurolander, I guess that the 3 currency blocks, shall "center" around a new axis...AS THE EURO DID and is expanding to do so. The euro is "more" than simply another would-be currency ! It is an "idea" with a "concept" as the dollar was when it started its (succesfull) conquest for nothing less than global reserve currency.

Former Europ, knew very well that it couldn't go on with the exhausting currency-battles. Does this globalized world realizes that it can't go on with those infernal currency-games ? And this under an ever growing dollar-dominance !

The 3 major currency-blocks brought their IRs closer to zero. Now they probably are going to show some more "collective" devaluation against each other. Where must this end ? Even the old euro-continent always had its German D-mark as leading anchor. The dollar-reserve currency isn't able anymore to exercise such an anchor-function.

What anchor are we (by our mentors, here) suggesting as reference ? GOLD !!! FREE PHYSICAL GOLD !!!

The old dollar-concept versus the new euro-architecture !
We have to move towards the new euro-idea or stick to the old and dying reserve currency system in place for much too long...or tumble into chaos...monetary chaos (collapse) before or after economic dis-order (war). Healthy Global competition is evolving into destructive, exhaustive war !

Each devaluation is just another step towards the next devaluation, faster and faster. A negative spiral with increasing momentum. Think about this when pondering about the 3 currency-blocks with the euro, expanding into the middle of the other 2 sides. And remember that the euro IS A GOLD FRIEND !

Black BladeUS Market Indicators#9113112/9/02; 04:09:49

US market index futures are lower, gold is lower, USD is lower, oil is higher, and NG is lower. Speculation is that the new Treasury Secretary will favor a "Weak Dollar Policy". This should be favorable to gold. Strangely gold is trending lower on rumored bank selling. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

- Black Blade

GoldCoaster(No Subject)#9113212/9/02; 04:14:24

Since a few of you are into singing a tune tonight how about this one.I think its from the Lady and her(7?) dwarfs."
They owe,they owe'so off to work they go...."

Paper AvalancheCommiefornia low on dough#9113312/9/02; 05:08:59

I wonder how CALPERS' balance sheet will look in 12 months. I would hate to have my retirement money with the state of CA.

Have a great week everybody!


SpartacusThe US dollar #9113412/9/02; 05:10:00

"Currency Rhetoric" by Ed Bugos

---The dollar is an international reserve currency, the yen isn't. Consequently, deflation and inflation don't spread from Japan, they spread from the United States, and what is happening is that dollar devaluation is going to cause deflationary symptoms every where else in the world including Japan. But it won't really be deflation.

Profligate US inflation policies tend to put pressure on trading partners to pursue the same policies or suffer a deflationary wrath, and sooner or later, if they don't keep up with US inflation rates, and similar policies, "relative" deflation is what they'll feel (feel is different than what is) as their currencies rise in value. Weaker currencies and monetary unions bust sooner if their inflation rates run too high, so they don't experience the deflation until later, when the value of the dollar falls.

Sooner or later, inflation is precisely what makes a currency weak. The schemes that have been put in place to support the dollar as an international reserve currency have been all but compromised by years of profligate money and credit inflation, and today, there are increasingly fewer candidates willing to make themselves the sacrificial lamb of US dollar policy. Japan's economy may indeed be in trouble, but so is the dollar, and dollar devaluation is about to throw the world economy into what will appear to be deflation, in as much as those foreign currencies rise in value, but what will actually be increasingly inflationary since the dollar is also everyone's reserve currency (i.e. the one most banks have most of their assets invested in). Such is prognosis of the Fed's inflation trap.---

HipplebeckCentral bankers#9113512/9/02; 05:23:11

Central bankers are not stupid.
They lease gold and hold prices stable for years while they build their globalized infrastructure. The goal is to build an electronic structure that has no physical basis. That way, through derivatives, prices can be held down for commodities, wages can be held down because "there is no inflation", and the rich can have unlimited money. The reason for the gold manipulation in the first place has always been to hold things stable while this new world order system is built. The globalists have grandiose dreams. The whole thing is in peril right now, but they still have a world government elite in mind. It is no different than that little clique in high school that thought themselves better than everyone else.
If the worst happens, then the gold must be returned, and the central banks end up owning everything anyway because they end up owning all the banks that borrowed in the first place. This means they not only own all the gold, they own all the assets of the worlds largest banks, and all the gold mines that have hedged.

DOWNUNDERWhere's the Deflation? --- Well worth a read !#9113612/9/02; 05:31:29

"Finally, the Fed's threat to devalue the dollar might not be an empty one, but its threat to peg long-term interest rates at artificially-low levels is (in recent speeches both Fed Governor Bernanke and Fed Chairman Greenspan have mentioned the possibility of the Fed buying whatever amount of long-term debt it needed to buy to keep long-term interest rates at some pre-determined low level). If the US$ was being devalued and the Fed had committed to keep the yields on 10-year bonds from rising above, say, 2%, who else besides the Fed would be a buyer of bonds? Anyone who bought bonds under such circumstances would be accepting a guaranteed loss, in real terms. If the Fed decided to peg long-term interest rates well below levels that would otherwise be set by the market then there would be a mass exodus from the US credit markets and a collapse in the US dollar's exchange rate. Unless, of course, all the other major central banks were implementing a similar strategy in which case there would be panic buying of gold and other hard assets.
Steve Saville
Hong Kong

BBT -- Goodnight from OZ

DOWNUNDERMANAGING THE PRECIOUS METALS' PRICES -- - - A good Read#9113712/9/02; 05:41:24

SNIP- - -

If all we are focusing on is the revenue line in the Nation's Profit and Loss account then the US economy appears on the surface to be relatively robust. However, the reality is that the Balance Sheet of the Nation is in pretty poor shape - bordering on ugly given the level of debt, and also given the probable under-funding of the Pension Fund liabilities which do not appear on the Balance Sheet because they are only "contingent" liabilities.

Yes, we could argue that the "authorities" have been raping the Balance Sheet Reserves for years in order to artificially present a pretty picture on P&L account - and we would probably be right. But the fact is that the markets are at a very dangerous juncture and the authorities also appear to be (as evidenced by the above) attempting to avoid a crisis of confidence BY MANAGING THE PRECIOUS METALS' PRICES, and BY MANAGING THE INFORMATION THAT FLOWS INTO THE PUBLIC DOMAIN.

steadysector silvercolector were talkimng about central banks gold loans maybe this link will help?#9113812/9/02; 06:08:59

more good stuff from turk. just wait till the questions about the disapearing sdrs start to be asked! instead of the free gold call many here make the new advertising campaing like the old wendys comercials use to say wheres the beef it will be WHERE IS THE GOLD?
gold get u some while its light for the price>

BelgianCurrency Rhetoric by Ed Bugos (Spartacus link)#9113912/9/02; 06:23:45

Sir Bugos gives us the very example of the FLAFLAFLALALA total confusion ! Defla-Infla mixed up ad nauseum so that no-one really understands where we, or oneself, stand or is proceeding. W're just, all stucked up until our chin into a global mud bath.

Soon, real/effective "unemployment" will rise to such an extend that the existing "artificial" employment (still growing) is not possible/sustainable, anymore.

Today, Belgium loses another Philips production unit and 1,200 jobs. The plant goes to Taiwan after governmental subsidies tried in vain to save those jobs with unbelievable incentives. This is a process that happens everywhere, already for a very long time. West goes East.

Next phase is that the entire Eastern production offered to the West, will meet less and less purchasing capacity (not power) due to rising unemployment, growth contraction under suffocating debt-growth ! This has nothing to do with infladefla ! But rather with *extreme* different degrees of un-balanced saturations. All those productive producers do not (can not) participate to a reciproke consumption of they produce. As if we need a re-run of our own past "industrial revolution" where the producing workers needed to be brought into the consumption arena.

Today I see increasing amounts of imports from India on top of the already enormous degree of Chinese imports !
China + India = more than 1/2 the globe's population excluded from broad consumption as to remain able to provide us, in a harsh competive manner, with cheap/cheaper and better products...for less than nothing in return !

If this situation is going to meet a global devaluation in tandem/concert...what is it going to solve ? Add 1,2 billion islamists to it, who are counting on Arabian oil to
improve (underpin) their strive for renaissance...and vision the same for Russia, wishing to exploit its resources as a starter for economic freedom (liberalism).

Yes dear forumers, we are living under stressfull conditions, indeed !

Note that POG rises are happening in NY and POG declines in London (systematically)! This is NOT without reasons. Any takers ?

silvercollectorsector#9114012/9/02; 07:01:19

Thanks for the response(s).

I remember and understand the 'double-counting' essays and posts. I understand the 'forward/swap' business conceptually although probably not entirely (does one want to?!) I recall the 'deep storage' comments and envision swapped to, swapped from, swappped around the mulberry Bush (pun) ie: 'encumbered' physical gold. Now what might or might not remain in America, in terms of gold without 'lien', is 8100 tonnes - 1700 tonnes = 6400 tonnes.

So the WGC (BB psted this about 6 months ago) has 'officially held gold' at about 30-32,000 tonnes, let's say 32,000 for (math) convenience. 'Half' the gold is loaned/swapped/forwarded (ie:double counted) and thus 16,000 tonnes are loaned out. Germany has "gold and gold receivables", the US has "gold and deep storage gold" (what a daft term) and others have "gold and gold lost but we might get it back so we are still going to count it so the public doesn't catch on that we all are a bunch of crooks"

The 'Audit':

"I've got a novel idea, since the gold hasn't been counted or seen in 25 years, let's go into all the underground tunnels and do just that! Let's see, this pile is ours so write that down Lawrence, this pile used to be ours but Japan bought it last spring. Don't write that down Lawrence! Those 2 piles over there are Tony's and those 12 pallets in the corner are Saddam's, don't write that down but make a note that it can never leave. That remaining pile is ours. So what do we have...... two thousand tonnes!! You boneheads, I told you to keep me informed. We need more gold!!! Make another column Lawrence, call it ....'Deep Storage'.... yeah, that's very clever, it's so deep you can't actually see it..hee..hee...hee. Make a note Lawrence on the Deep Storage, it's gold that other countries owe us, that will be quite mysterious. Put umm....6000 tonnes in 'Deep Storage', now we're back to 8,000 tonnes, that will keep Alan and the boys happy. Let's get out of here and get some lunch.


DummyANIRE:Spartacus (12/9/02; 01:39:36MT - msg#: 91125)#9114112/9/02; 07:21:01

Financial market looks like declining toward another LTCM-bankruptcy. But its condition has been dramatically chabged.

1)Japanese commercial banks fall in a kind of insolvency state. So Bank of Japan cannot admit a strong Yen( from 147yen/$:1998.Aug. to 101yen/$:1999.Nov.).
2)Central Banks cannot gain a plenty of profit by forward selling of Gold. Because they have already sold mayor reserve-stock.

In the above two conditions, what kind of strategy can be adapted by Central Banks ? I think the most probable strategy is a quick and frequent forex operation ( a short-term operation). And if a trading range between high and low positions can be extended a little, they can gain more profit.
In this game, a clever nation can gain a lot of profit quickly until a lazy and dull nation falls in bankruptcy. So a clever nation can easily gain a more profit than a superficial trade-deficit.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.ATTN: Gentlemen! With Marie's assistance you can enjoy upscale gift-giving at discount prices!#9114212/9/02; 07:33:47

This Year Give the Gift of Gold

omegaOmega Necklaces & Accessories

Gold Omega Necklaces are currently a very hot fashion item!

Diamond Slides to accessorize your favorite Omega necklace.

Bangle Bracelets in plain style or with beautiful diamond cut engraving!

When you call, Marie can also tell you about items featuring birthstones along with many other great gift ideas!1-800-869-5115 ext.106

Purchase from USAGOLD by December 16th for Christmas delivery and avoid those high jewelry store markups and sales taxes!


a nation of oneRe: Topaz (12/9/02; 03:19:03MT - msg#: 91126)#9114312/9/02; 07:45:10

You say: "As "American" is my second language (ha!) I can sometimes be found wanting in the Grammar dep't, in fact, the few times I've needed to reference a previous post of mine (after a few days) I'll re-read it and think "that was gibberish"...but at the time it seemed quite OK."

--My grammar is pretty good, yet sometimes I get that same feeling. Writing well doesn't mean that I have a lot of knowledge about markets. But I typically perceive things others don't. I try to focus my posts on these. And though I don't always succeed, my main goal is just to state the ideas clearly. I am not always right, but when I am, it can make a difference. I know I don't always consider other people's feelings, and I am working on that. But because I am a careful thinker, I tend to be a slow learner. I prefer that to the reverse. For when I do learn something, usually my result is better than most.

Cavan ManCalifornia fiscal dilemma#9114412/9/02; 07:54:31

Investor: Expect the unexpected.

With its huge economy stalled and state revenues plunging, California has descended into its worst budget crisis in a decade and is now facing an excruciating round of budget cuts and possible tax increases.

State officials are proposing deep reductions in education, health services and other programs to deal with a budget shortfall that could total $25 billion in the next 18 months.

"That's a hole so deep and so vast that even if we fired every single person on the state payroll — every park ranger, every college professor and every Highway Patrol officer — we would still be more than $6 billion short," said the Assembly speaker, Herb J. Wesson Jr., a Democrat.

Gov. Gray Davis announced a series of steps on Friday intended to save $10.2 billion to plug a deepening hole in the current budget and to serve as a prelude to even deeper cuts in next year's. Mr. Davis proposed freezing pay for state workers and warned of large-scale layoffs. As many as 200,000 people could lose their health coverage under the state Medi-Cal program. Payments to public schools and universities could fall by more than $3 billion.

And that is just the start. In January the governor must propose a budget for the fiscal year beginning in July that needs to address an expected $15 billion shortfall in revenues. Mr. Davis has not yet proposed tax increases, but given the deficit magnitude, they appear inevitable.

Other states are confronting similar problems, but California's size and the bursting of the dot-com bubble make the problem worse here.

"Nobody expected the loss of revenues due to the drop in the stock market to be as severe as it has been," said B. Timothy Gage, the state finance director. "Nobody anticipated the truly staggering extent of the hit we took. States have not seen such drops since World War II."

BelgianA/FOA - from msgs. : # 82-83-113#9114512/9/02; 08:02:36

FOA: *Money* is an associated value (worth-scale) in your memory and for help, usually recorded on paper/coins or digits. Money is just a book-keeping-accounting of "Real Wealth". Gold is NOT money but tradable wealth-object.

B : The one and only tradable wealth-object of all times and all places !

FOA: Fiat cannot remained fixed to any real wealth. Fiat became a "non-wealth" holding in 1971.

This "need" to change valuations is a human trait and is the main force that keeps attempting to break Gold, FREE, from modern money-attachments.

Governments, banks and political stylists, always try (!) to entwine Gold, into the money-system...and control its value for the sake of money-debt "viability".

B: Keep debts "alive" with systemic "paperization" !

FOA: The huge dollar-debts (Trillions-plus) can ***NEVER*** be traded back into the US economy to receive goods/services at anything close to today's prices.

B: Devaluations = more dollars (higer prices) for goods/services of any tangible value/necessety.

FOA : The dollar has a definite timeline and the equation that controls that line is linked to "POLITICAL USE" !

B: Wich political entity desires to maneuver the dollar out of use/order ? The dollar-producers themselves...a majority of dollar-users...or the euro-builders ? Or 2 out of this 3 ?

FOA: As society advanced and trading volumes mushroomed, the need for more didital units increased more so from their *trading* function, than their *value-retaining* function. These "inflating" digital-units, failed to create a meaningful price-inflation.

B : The above process of getting further and further away from wealth-association is IRREVERSABLE and gaining momentum, exponentially.

FOA: A reserve-currency , *today*, must allow its value to be set solely upon its money-function...not its function of *retaining* wealth.
Much is to be gained for "wealth-savers", today, who buy Gold for its wealth-function and forget its *dollar-created* prices.

B : Why do you think that POG is NOT moving at all (!!!), against the "astonishing" volatility of all paper ? This paradox is simply "evidence" that Gold will/shall/must jump into the forefront. Keep this in mind when touching/holding, any kind of paper.

FOA : Gold and Fiat shall trade "INDEPENDENTLY" of each other with no more gold-money-tie-ins !

B: Yes it took me a long time to first, "understand" what the above means and secondly, to "believe" that it actually would happen. But how can one stop a natural process ? One can't ! Timing is "today" of secundary importance !

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Gold coins make great gifts, too!#9114612/9/02; 08:06:57

Call Jonathan at ext.110 and ask about the availability of coins on his DAILY SPECIALS board. Jonathan starts each day with an inventory of specials available for immediate delivery. We encourage you to call to learn which items he has on hand on any given day offered as a special addition to complement regular access to the full slate of bullion and coins normally obtainable through the Small Order Desk (see url above) or also through MK and George if you need to have brokered a truckload of wasting currency into gold.

So, do you find yourself getting close to the Christmas deadline with no desire to brave the crowded malls? Give the gift of gold coins -- an easy phone call may solve your problems!

sector@ silvercollector -- 8,000 -1,700 tonnes#9114712/9/02; 08:13:23

Might not equal 6,300 tonnes

Especially if the Fed and Treasury have a perpetual "Swap put", "That just sits there". As Former Fed Governor Wayne Angel said in the 1991 FOMC transcripts.

How much gold was in that "Swap put"? Some of the total, all of the total?

Only a few people know and you can bet THAT little accounting ditty didn't show up in the Triennial Survey.

One more point on gold derivatives as opposed to gold loans. The derivatives [options bought ands sold] are tools used to cap gold. They degrade over time [As anyone who has experienced an expiration premium loss can attest]. Roll overs incure erosion. In a primary bull market they need replenishment with fresh gold loans, thus the forays into Bangladesh to convince them to give up their 3 tonnes, Kuwait to give up their 79 tonnes, etc.

The central bank gold attrition is relentless and unidirectionally down. As a result, gold-bugs can rest assured that a sudden blast of new selling remains only a remote possibility. It would just hasten the "Abyss" that Sir Eddie George [BOE] spoke of.

The real erosion is coming in other, more visible, financial areas. Bankruptcies, trade imbalances, operating budgets, pension shortfalls and the not-so-subtle destruction of confidence.

Incidentally, the "Sterile Asset" has appreciated 20.2% since the last BIS Triennial Report in June 2001. A fact that certainly hasn't gone unnoticed by the internal, central bank critics of the "Strong Dollar" Policy.

a nation of oneRe: Cavan Man (12/9/02; 07:54:31MT - msg#: 91144)#9114812/9/02; 08:24:04

In your post: "Nobody expected the loss of revenues due to the drop in the stock market to be as severe as it has been," said B. Timothy Gage, the state finance director. "Nobody anticipated the truly staggering extent of the hit we took.

--This is an example of the poor quality of person the American public typically elect to public office. His statement is false. Many people DID foresee the losses he refers to. But they were not elected to public office. His statement is a form of denial, to deflect the blame for his own faults onto others. By saying 'Nobody,' he makes it seem that he should not have been expected to anticipate it himself. But 'Nobody' is not the right word. To be truthful, he should have said, "I did not expect the loss...."

Just the very concept of government is itself already a corruption.

BelgianNo subject#9115012/9/02; 08:43:11

More than 1/2 UAL's stock is in its employee's hands !
How terrible must it be, to become unemployed and realising that your paper savings (UAL-stock) is virtual worthless ?

The dollar wants a lower exchange rate. The euro + yen, don't like it. The dollar will *try* to fix things with more and more tax-cuts and stealth confetti hand outs.

sectorNew Plaza Accord Afoot for China's Currency?#9115112/9/02; 08:45:56

12/09 01:53
William Pesek Jr.
By William Pesek Jr.

Tokyo, Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- With China sucking up a growing share of global trade, markets are buzzing about a move to realign the world's biggest currencies against China's.

A Plaza Accord-like deal to reduce the yuan's competitiveness seemed unthinkable just a few months ago. It's long been a third- rail issue for Beijing, which pegged the yuan at 8.3 to the U.S. dollar in 1993 and hasn't budged since.

What's changed is China's role in the global economy -- and its success in wrestling business away from Japan and the U.S. China also appears to be pursuing a more moderate foreign policy, perhaps to reduce hostility toward its surging economic influence. Beijing could gain diplomatically from being flexible.

In Tokyo, yuan-related tension is on display as rarely before, with Ministry of Finance officials calling on Beijing to boost the yuan, effectively reducing China's competitiveness. ``Surely, the yuan is too weak, when we consider the current strength of the country,'' Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said last week.

Shiokawa added that the issue of ``imbalances'' among the dollar, euro, yen and yuan may be discussed early next year at a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors of the Group of Seven industrialized nations. The yen, he argued, is too strong given economic yardsticks such as purchasing power.

``If there is such an imbalance, we should try to think of policy solutions to rectify it,'' he said.

U.S. Reticent

Washington has been far more reticent on the issue, though Chinese officials admit the U.S. may be interested in revaluation. ``I personally feel some pressure, and this is something the U.S. is pondering,'' Chinese Finance Minister Xiang Huaicheng said last month. ``It's a sensitive issue.''

The ouster of U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill tosses another wild card into the mix. While O'Neill showed little interest in rejiggering currency rates, there's no telling his replacement won't feel differently. A lower dollar versus the yuan could help the world's biggest economy.

Pay VERY close attention to this Bloomie report. It may just be the driving reason why a US dollar/yen/euro deval is in the works. Not to mention the mountain of unsustainable US economic policies.

Of course, gold will benefit.

I wonder how many ounces of gold the "New" US and Japanese currency bills will buy?

MK" If gold continues to rise, the fallout in the financial system#9115212/9/02; 09:31:18

might just be nasty." From this morning's Financial Times, an article by John Plender (Auto
link to home page above) I highly recommend the Financial Times to our

"The gold market's response to the departure of Paul O'Neill, US Treasury
secretary, on Friday
could not have been less flattering. The metal hit a six-month high. It also
had the benefit last
week of the European Central Bank's cut in interest rates to 2.75 per cent.
With the Federal
Reserve already down to 1.25 per cent, this is heaven for gold bugs. As Wall
commentator James Grant nicely puts it, gold as an investment asset is
condemned to wage a
rearguard action against compound interest. So with each new cut in rates,
the opportunity cost
of holding gold, which yields no income, comes down.

This year the gold price has finally emerged from its long period of
quiescence and I sense that
the gold bugs' hormones are still jumping. What most excites them is the
existence of large
short positions in the market. Banks have been borrowing gold at low rates
of interest from the
central banks and investing the proceeds of their short sales of gold in
higher yielding assets -
the gold "carry" trade.

A buoyant gold price is squeezing the short sellers. This is in a market
where risks appear to be
concentrated among a few big players. But these days it is impossible to
know where risks have
ended up. If gold continues to rise, the fallout in the financial system
might just be nasty."


Mr Greshamsector#9115312/09/02; 10:54:35

I was just going to stick that yuan article link up here -- good thing I checked.

"Surely, the yuan is too weak, when we consider the current strength of the country,'' Japanese Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said last week."

Talk about tail-chasing! Japan wants China to strengthen its currency. China presumably wants to stay where it is. Japan wants to continue watering down its yen. US is about to join in weakening its own Dollar.

These people have all got the one politically-powerful cash flow constituency of the export sector in mind, and to hell with the rest of their economies.

It really looks like they're making this one so easy for us, but they must be budgeting extra amounts of gold, in some form, to tide over a time of such announcements as these, to keep potential gold-seekers asleep and not making the logical association they might from such blatant currency talk-downs.

Off to look at some 1985 POG charts...

Sierra MadreMY TWO-CENTS WORTH ON THE CURRENT WORLD SLOWDOWN#9115412/09/02; 12:04:16

I think this should be said once in a while:

Depression is not a mysterious affliction, to be cured with more credit, more easy money, more inflation.

Depression is a natural phenomenon, arising from previous fiddling with credit expansion and its twin, funny money otherwise known as inflation. It is an attempt by the economic body, to correct a previous unhealthy meddling (creation of credit beyond that available from savings) which produced MALINVESTMENT.

Depression should lead to swift and drastic LIQUIDATION of bad investments, through which what is useful is rescued and re-applied to sound investment. Depression and liquidation leads to health by getting malinvestment off the back of society.

Depression and liquidation is the only road to recuperate economic health, where what society does not need, is no longer produced, and what society does need, begins to be produced.

More credit, more money creation, cheaper credit, etc., does nothing to restore health. It only delays the recovery of health. Yet, nothing could be further from the aims of world governments. They all of them, want to perpetuate malinvestment, not liquidate it! This road is bound to result in worse conditions.

More money and toying with exchange rates, will not cure malinvestment, which is a cancer on the body politic. The cancer must GO!

Gather cheap gold while you can. All present attempts to attain economic health in the world, are going to fail. Depression will be prolonged for years.


sector@ Mr. G The China Currency Problem...#9115512/09/02; 12:11:38 only ONE of the biggies...

...that beset the "Western" central bankers. The World is awash in cheap and good Chinese products, devastating everybody else's export efforts. The Germans are bending down with unemployment. We are too but lie to cover it.

IF there is to be a Western bloc deval vs. the Yuan, imagine how much gold the Chinese will buy then?

This situation seems at once to be intractable. Western central bank gold is bleeding away, our big banks swimming in derivatives sewage [Buffet's term] and our political ideology finally exposed as worthless.

Sierra MadreA couple of questions for posters...#9115612/09/02; 12:38:39

I understand that Japan has some $400+ billion in US dollar reserves. Chinese reserves are also huge, and growing due to their export surpluses.

Just what are these reserves? They are holdings of US bonds.

Are these bonds pieces of paper in Japanese and Chinese hands? No. They are accounts, all properly drawn up, of bond holdings and these holdings are in some financial institutions in New York City. Right? The bonds are not pieces of paper that live in China or Japan, and can move around the world at the will of the Chinese and Japanese.

The Chinese and Japanese may shift a PART of these bond holdings, via sales. No problem with that.

But any massive prospective move to sell and thus transfer these bond holdings, can be very easily stopped.

The U.S. simply "freezes" those accounts. "Yes, China, yes, Japan, you own those billions of bonds. But, unfortunately, we cannot transfer them according to your instructions, nor can we sell them (dump them) for cash, until the freeze is lifted."

Result: China and Japan are stymied. They cannot buy gold with those bonds. They are frozen until further notice.

I'd like to hear opinions regarding this point of view?

Possible? Impossible? The Chinese and Japanese giant exporters, have not really been paid for their cheap goods. They only hold promises (bonds), and the promises are in the hands of their debtor - the U.S. financial community.

So, where is the real strength of the giants? They are VULNERABLE! Very vulnerable.

Can anyone shed some light on this?


a nation of oneRe: Sierra Madre (12/09/02; 12:04:16MT - msg#: 91154)#9115712/09/02; 12:40:23

You say: "Depression is a natural phenomenon, arising from previous fiddling with credit expansion and its twin, funny money otherwise known as inflation. It is an attempt by the economic body, to correct a previous unhealthy meddling (creation of credit beyond that available from savings) which produced MALINVESTMENT."

--I don't think we see enough of this kind of information. Our public schools would do well to teach this, not at one grade level, but year after year, starting perhaps as early as the fifth or sixth grade.

Humble PiePOG #9115812/09/02; 12:53:56

I think Gold will have to go it alone as it won't get any help from the two new appointee' by Bush .He looks like a one term Pres. at this point in time ,too bad he' had a chance to do the right thing and is still controlled by oil soaked guy' behind the screen.
Usul@Sierra#9115912/09/02; 13:20:43

Can conclusions be drawn by a parallel between the problem of the giant bond holder, whose assets are numbered as deposits in the vaults of another country, and the Argentine situation of the last year?

Recall that Argentine bank deposits were frozen for a year when their owners decided that they would like their money to an extent greater than the banks' fractional reserve scheme could stand.

See link:

"Rioters ransacked banks, destroyed ATM machines and set fires across downtown Buenos Aires early Friday after a night of street protests against a government freeze on bank deposits turned violent..."

Was it not their money, after all? The government and the banks seemed to behave as if the money belonged to the bank!

AndúrilRecalling the real world, Sierra Madre#9116012/09/02; 14:07:25

Upon your ( msg#: 91154): "Depression should lead to swift and drastic LIQUIDATION of bad investments."

It is one thing (easy) to say it, quite another to find political will to have that job done!

Wishes of perfection are but ladders to the stars that lead to nowhere. However there is before you a Trail like a ribbon of gold...

What of this road is not to your liking that you spend this time in daydreams?

Cavan ManAnduril#9116112/09/02; 14:16:21

Dear Sir: You seem to have a special insight into the subject at hand. Please permit me to be small minded in asking when POG will crest $375? Kind regards...CM
Cavan ManNew Sec Treasury#9116212/09/02; 14:19:59

That this guy resigned his membership from Augusta at this particular hour tells me he has NO STONES WHATSOEVER. CSX is a 70's remnant if memory serves correctly. What a fine representative of the go along to get along set. In gold we trust; all others pay cash.
AndúrilTrading advice! It will happen, Cavan Man#9116312/09/02; 14:33:17

less than a blink after $374, and not one moment before!

On the road to riches if you leave no smiles in your wake you have wasted the journey.

Belgian@ Sierra Madre#9116412/09/02; 14:52:29

I'm not a banker, but know one thing about states defaulting on their debt : DISASTROUS !
It is not China alone that keeps US-treasuries in reserve !
The whole world is holding treasuries (dollar-credits) for 3/4 of their reserves. When one signals that there is trouble with bonds...that means default. But a state (any state) can't go out of business because of the existance of printing presses. Service and pay back principle with dollar-fiat that is worthless. POG gaps and there is no more gold available at reasonable prices.

This is exactly the reason "why" POG must remain capped at any cost and with any means. That's why Gold-Accumulation continues, where possible as to collect and hoard as much as one can. When the US abandons the dollar, politically, Gold is relieved from its shackels and the volcano erupts.

Sierra, if there was plenty of Gold available...its price would fluctuate much more violently, given the extreme benign conditions for Gold to do so. Y're impatient, brother !

Saw this many times with very valuable stocks that are not broadly distributed amongst the public and its shares are closely held in very, very strong hands who are well aware of that company's intrinsic value. The stock-price is constantly undervalued and no stock is trading up until a certain moment the owners are making a bid for the remaining stock at multiples of the quoted prices !

There is an ocean of external-dollars out there. All these dollar-owners live constantly in fear that something very serious might happen to the dollar and consequently to their dollar-holdings. Call it the dollar-fear factor !
This is the reason why all these dollar-holders are constantly hedging their fiat-holdings against Gold, paper gold that is. But China, Russia and the ME go on accumulating physical for reserves. But it is very logical that nobody wishes to alarm the general public of what is really happening as to avoid a Gold-Stampede.

Everybody is simply ***staring*** at the unmovable Gold-PRICE . PEOPLE ALWAYS KNOW VERY WELL THE PRICE OF SOMETHING BUT NEVER THE VALUE ! Gold's price-history is (soon, was) the best off value-covers imaginable. Gold must be percepted as worthless and useless ! Gold must keep debts alive !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! All permanent growing debts...all the growing confetti piles.

Just imagine a commercial with a huge pile of debt-paper with publicly well known names as Enron etc, blowing away by a strong wind and finally uncovering a bullion-bar that isn't moving ! This is an impossible ad ! No media will ever be allowed to show such a dramatic picture. Undermining (even suggestive) confidence in the state's currency is an act of incivism.

Briefly : All US debt will always be repaid and serviced.
But with what kind of a dollar-worth ?! Each and everyone, simply has to answer that question for himself.

In the case that a particular state doesn't wishes to recognise a debtholder is as much as a declaration of war. Who wants (dares) to declare war on China ? Any kind of war ?

Cavan ManAnduril#9116512/09/02; 15:02:37

Good advice. Are you an attorney or a philosopher?
Sierra MadreBelgian: thanks for the valuable insights!#9116612/09/02; 15:23:07

Yes, that which is important must not be allowed to draw attention! When the Dow moves 1% in a day, that's a very normal day. When gold moves 1% ($3.2) in a day, everybody gets excited, because it happens so rarely.

This is a telltale of how important and valuable gold is!
Regarding China and Japan's bonds. I am not talking about "default" or "not recognizing" the owners of the bonds. It is a question of simply "freezing" the accounts. Such apparently childish restraints worked for instance on the French back in the 20's, when France held great volumes of sterling pounds in London Accounts. The British SHOULD have handed over their gold to the French on demand, but...the Brits found ways to persuade the French not to demand gold for sterling! The sterling was in London, not in Paris.

China and Japan cannot just decide to buy gold with US bonds. If they could, they would. But they can't! Because if they do try this funny business, the US will simply freeze their account (in N.Y.) and say, "Sorry, your bonds are your bonds, the interest due is being paid, but, unfortunately, we are NOT going to allow you to dump our bonds and buy gold. For such purposes, which amount to a declaration of war on the USA, your ACCOUNT IS FROZEN. Sincerely yours, the TREASURY".


To talk of the necessity of liquidation for a recovery of economic health is NOT "daydreaming"! On the contrary, it is seeing the world as it is: condemned to a very long DEPRESSION.

Gold owners certainly have a better chance in the world, as it will evolve, but a worldwide depression brings so many dangers with it, that having gold is rather like having a lifejacket when the ship is sinking. You'd rather it didn't sink.


Belgian@ Sierra#9116712/09/02; 15:49:09

Frozen accounts or not...all these exporters to the dollar-block have daily trade surplusses. There is not enough physical Gold available to satisfy any tiny little fraction of direct demand and deliverty of physical. The US can threath to freeze as much as it wants...freezing what...a lost dollar, to be compensated x-fold by price-rise of the
small or large amount of Gold in your reserves !!!
Please, let the dollar-paper be frozen NOW ! That signals that you are "politically" ready to abandon the dollar and that Free Gold can start to compensate for those who still recognized the VALUE of Gold during all those years of maskerade.
That's exactly why there will be no freezing but printing.
Does this makes sense to you ?

Cavan ManHi Black Blade#9116812/09/02; 16:06:55

Doing my part to stem the deflationary trend in the packaging industry by cutting pricing in a key account by 12%. The good news is due to my relationship I had the opportunity to do that. Looking forward to hearing from Boxman on the subject. This fresh from Rival Mfg.....a long time small (crock pot) appliance Mfg....shutting down their last plant and moving guessed it...China.
Heart of fatherSierra Madre - Freezing of Bond Accounts#9116912/09/02; 16:07:28

I wonder what would happen if US Bond holdings of China and Japan is frozen and China and Japan retaliate by demanding all exports to US be paid for in gold.
CoBra(too)There used to be Snow on the Kilimancharo!#9117012/09/02; 16:20:49

... Now, that we've got G.W. Bush - the U.S. and the rest of the world has to live with it - for better or (much)worse.

Personally, I've had high hopes to begin with. Hopes, which faded with every week he was in power and nothing happened in terms of bringing the culprits of economic decay to the fore.

Now after midterm elections, all is in balance ... politically, that is.

The disaster waiting to happen is the complete and total vacancy of understanding the underlying mechanics of the unbearable stresses of the economic machine.

By exchanging the mechanics for other mere oilers, who in all probability have yet to learn, which parts need to be lubricated at all instances - further neglect to vital parts is almost a foregone conclusion.

The stalling of the $-Reserve machine a global tradegy and the end of globalization, as well as its (in-)humane strong arms - IMF and WBk.

... As it stands today, the day UAL went bankrupt - the new captain of the team is John (white as) Snow from the transporter CSX and the economic adviser, an anti-miser from the greatest, if not greasyest of all Gold - unfortunately- Man - Sachs - be sure to spell it your way!

Wow! I'm sure the US voters will be happy to re-elect Dubya ... in case some are still around after fighting in ME and elsewhere.

... That's probably not the issue - for the admin - as survival is the only war won! Will the $-Supremacy, as the only reserve currency ...survive?

I won't bet on Snow - as it has the un-appetizing habit to melt in spring, like gelati in kid mafioso's hands - though I'll put my bets on GS's eco adviser to sink the rest of the unsinkable Titanic, like in the 30's. Got to admit those guys were good and invented the first mutual fund back in 1929. The eventual payback was (.129) one cent and 29 after com(m)a fractions on the Dollar.

Can u say Kilimancharo? The only Snow in tropical Africa ...

It's kind'a neat to envision a repeat - wow, here ya go, history doesn't repeat - it only aggravates past lessons ... never learned!

See u in El Dorado - cb2

Sierra MadreAlo, M. Belgian, worthy compatriot of M. Hércule Poirot!#9117112/09/02; 16:34:59

Yes indeed, you make sense. This is the sort of thing I wanted to hear. I guess it's a "Mexican Standoff" - you know the term? When neither side can make a first move.

The whole thing is going to blow up, utterly unstable, just a matter of time.


Sierra Madre in Mexico

WaveriderVIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT #9117212/09/02; 17:56:40

Yes...the convenient link to the DMR. A thanks to All for your news and discussions this past week - most appreciated while away. Cheers,

PizzDevaluing the Dollar#9117312/09/02; 17:57:36

As I was pondering the dollar this last weekend and listening to Puplava's web radio show, he mentioned dollar devaluation a couple times.

I e-mailed him and asked for some of his insight on just how one would devalue the world's reserve currency - against just a select few, a basket of currencies, or maybe even against gold.

I just got his response, and he said he'd answer the question on his radio show this weekend.

I'll summarize his response this weekend for those that can't or don't listen to his internet broadcast.

Other than letting the market dictate the value, I'm at a loss as to the mechanics of how it could be done in a floating, non gold standard environment.


mikalRegarding Derivatives, is Market Value or Notional Value the key number?#9117412/09/02; 18:19:02

Today Jim Sinclair answers a reader's question on market and notional value in derivatives.
knotakareJapan has run out of options#9117512/09/02; 18:50:41

In "Gold Wars", Ferdinand Lipp's book about gold, he tells the story that a Japanese official had told him that the US forbids the Japanese Central Bank from aquiring gold for reserves, as a condition for the US military protection.

Caught between an emboldened China and a desperatly weakened America, what does Japan posibly have to bargain with for continued access to unrestricted markets in America and protection from Chinese military intimidation?

Japan is on a trade and currency, collision course with the US, at the same time it is subject to manipulation by China.

They have choosen to worship at the alter of American imperialism and Keynsian economics, and have large US$ reserves and large trade deficiets with the US. But now America needs to reverse those trade deficits and weaken it own currency against the yen. America has also overextended its military promises, and Japan must feel that their own defence could one day soon be alarmingly compromised.

What Japan needs is to acguire gold for reserves to rebuild its banking system and begin plans to defend itself. If it does not, the next 100 years could be very bitter for them. They need to acquire gold and reduce their US$ reserves without causing alarm in the US. They may already be acquiring gold in or thru other counries in Southeast Asia.

I think Japan is very vulnerable at this point in time. They carry their bankrupt banks along for god knows what reason. Sierra has also made the observation that America could freeze their accounts, if their change in policy where made known.

Their national wealth is held in bankrupt banks and US$ reserves, not a very safe position. Japan could use a stronger yen to buy gold and feed their people in the transition away from an over reliance on an unsteady, American empire.


Noble1The Future of Currency#9117612/09/02; 18:57:28

as illustrated by the FRB of SF.(see above link)

Remember: Gold is the metal of kings.


silvercollectorPizz#9117712/09/02; 20:37:16

Do you have a link to Puplava's radio show? Does one require a password or membership?


Black BladeMarket Wrap Up – Puplava#9117812/09/02; 20:58:53

"Brother, Can You Spare A Dime?"

It was a song in 1932 made popular by the times. The U.S. was in the beginning stages of the Great Depression that would not end until World War II. The E.Y. Harburg song might be updated today to reflect the times more appropriately titled "Brother, Can You Spare a Billion? Why Not Make It A Trillion?" Everybody needs money these days. Consumers have too much debt and can't pay their bills. Delinquencies, defaults, and bankruptcies are on the rise. It takes more debt each month to pay the bills so John Q and his family go deeper into debt. On the corporate side, more companies are filing for bankruptcy as debt payments pile. Today United Airlines filed for bankruptcy. The second largest U.S. airline will be unable to meet its debt payments of over $900 million this month, so United is seeking a federal aid. It is struggling with high labor costs, massive amounts of debt, a decline in revenue and a fare war with other airlines. United needs a dime and a billion. The government doesn't have a dime to spare.

Things Beginning to Percolate

The next bubble I believe is going to be in "things" as shown in these graphs of the CRB Index, gold, oil, and natural gas. Helping oil prices rise today were reports out on Venezuela, which is bordering on chaos. Oil workers and tanker captains are continuing a week-long strike that has basically shut down oil shipments out of the country. Venezuela is a key oil supplier to the U.S. The country ships 1.4 million barrels of oil a day to the U.S., making it the fourth largest supplier of oil. Oil analysts were counting on Venezuela to be a stable supplier of oil in case of war with Iraq. That course of war is looking ever more probable after this weekend's report by Iraq. Iraq states defiantly that they haven't possessed any biological, chemical, or nuclear-related weapons for at least 10 years. Iraq presented itself as a peaceful loving nation. Any failure by Iraq to disclose weapons of mass destruction could provide the catalyst for a U.S.–led attack. Britain's Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, told BBC television this weekend that President Saddam's past disclosures have all been "a pack of lies." U.S. and UK military forces began military exercises today in the Persian Gulf to test command, control, and communication structures in preparation for war.

Black Blade: A good one from Puplava tonight. In light of recent discussions here on debt this article is timely. We are heading into a severe recession soon (actually a New Great Depression). Energy prices will be a killer, as I hope to address this issue in an upcoming post in the next few days (There's just so much info to wade through). I will focus on NatGas and electricity instead of oil as that situation is more critical. You may have guessed it but NatGas production and electricity generation is already approaching a crisis situation. We as individuals won't be able to do a heck of a lot about it, but we can get prepared in other ways such as getting our debt load under control and preserving wealth by accumulating precious metals and taking responsibility for our most basic needs. Most consumers have their minds focused on the holidays at present but soon the hangover from holiday bills will hit home just as other economic and geopolitical problems come into focus. I watched some tube tonight looking for indications what Bush's new man at Treasury will do but it seems that the media is more concerned with a fictional TV mafia family. My perception is that the "strong dollar policy" MUST be abandoned. This albatross hanging around Bush's neck will hit home as manufacturers continue to fire workers and seek government assistance just to survive as consumer and corporate capital spending winds down. The tapped out consumer is about to get a history lesson (1930's style). In the meantime – Merry Christmas.

Black BladeRe: silvercollector - Puplava Radio#9117912/09/02; 21:04:24

Since I am already here - You may need to download "realplayer" (free software also linked at the site) but I don't think registration is required. Then just click on the program you wish to hear. Link above is provided. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black BladeCalifornia Is at Fiscal Brink#9118012/09/02; 21:16:33


LOS ANGELES, Dec. 8 — When times were good and billions of dollars in income tax payments were pouring in from high-tech millionaires, California lavished raises on state employees, expanded health care benefits for the poor, cut taxes on car licenses and invested heavily in education and transportation. Those days are over. With its huge economy stalled and state revenues plunging, California has descended into its worst budget crisis in a decade and is now facing an excruciating round of budget cuts and possible tax increases.

Democrats respond that the budget shortfall results chiefly from a severe drop in revenue from taxes on capital gains and stock options from the market run-up of the late 1990's and that those lost revenues must be replaced with new taxes.

Black Blade: They never learn do they? Businesses are threatening to leave the state due to onerous taxes and so what is the solution proposed by state politicians? Raise taxes. When times were good did they pay down debt and prepare? No! They spent even more like drunken sailors. It's the same old story – "The Grasshopper and The Ant". Hmmm…

Black BladeDollar Falls on Speculation Treasury Head May Let Currency Drop#9118112/09/02; 21:27:15


New York, Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar had its biggest two-day decline against the yen in a month on speculation John Snow, President George W. Bush's choice for Treasury secretary, may let the U.S. currency weaken to boost exports.

Black Blade: I don't see where he has any other choice. Of course it all depends on what his masters at the White House tell him to do and whether Alan Greenspan and the boys and girls at the Fed will play ball.

Black BladeVenezuela oil shipments near to shutdown #9118212/09/02; 21:37:38


Oil shipments from Venezuela, the world's fifth-largest exporter, neared a complete shutdown on Sunday night, as a strengthening national strike threatened to paralyse the government of President Hugo Chávez. The industry's production, which usually reaches 3m barrels per day, was at critical levels on Sunday as distribution bottlenecks and lack of storage space slashed refining and well-head output by 40 per cent at Petr--leos de Venezuela (PDVSA), the state oil company. Mr Chávez, in determined and typically combative mood, declared at a rally that the week-old strike, which has been called by opposition groups to pressure for early elections, was "an act of sabotage", and announced: "The moment has come to fight the big oil battle." But there appeared to be no sign that Mr Chávez was regaining control of his country, as other sectors of the economy dominated by opposition groups, such as domestic airlines, on Sunday opened up new flanks of protest against the government and joined the national strike.

Black Blade: These are certainly "Interesting Times".

DummyANIRE: knotakare (12/09/02; 18:50:41MT - msg#: 91175)#9118312/09/02; 21:43:40

I have already pointed out that Bank of Japan (BOJ) has a Gold reserve only less than 2 % of total foreign reserve at 2002.11.08.
I agree with Ferdinand Lipp's opinion. A Japanese official(BOJ) is a kind of salaried man, and he dislikes entangled in serious troubles with any problems.
In early 1990s, Japan was on a trade and currency, collision course with the US, but at present, Japan is completely under the US control through the elaborate Forex operations.
In a near future, Japanese officials will never try to acquire gold for reserves to rebuild their banking system and never try to exchange their US$ reserves with gold.
Frankly speaking, Japan is in a kind of dementia stage, he has no strategy to acquire gold for reserves.

The Invisible HandHow do I get into (credit card) debt?#9118412/09/02; 21:57:54

When I have used in a certain month my credit card up to the credit limit, I have to wait until the amount is debited from my bank account in the early days of the next month, before I can use my credit card again. If the amount is not paid, I can't use my credit card any longer. Perhaps if the unpaid amount is under the credit limit, I can still use the card for the difference between the credit limit and the unpaid amount, but after that it's finished.

How do you there, in the US of A, manage to be crushed by credit card debt? By having several of those cards? Don't the issuing companies (the banks or the credit card companies themselves) ask, when you apply for the card, for any (personal or real) guarantee that the bills will be paid? And don't they block all the cardS once the bill of one card have not been paid? Don't they exchange information about the creditworthiness of the cardholders?

PH in LACredit Card Debt#9118512/09/02; 22:19:19

Greetings Invisible:

It sounds like you are more familiar with what we call the "debit card" here in the USA. The credit card that crushes so many under an eventually unpayable debt load only demands a small monthly payment at first. The unsuspecting "consumer" accepts additional credit cards as each new one gets maxxed out until he faces a total debt that is impossible to ever repay, leaving him in a state of "voluntary slavery" for the rest of his life. All for the latest "style" or other "retail" item, all the while enriching the merchant class while paying his taxes to support the latest adventure concocted by our "rulers". Quite a system we have here!! ie. "The more things change, the more they stay the same!"

mikalRe: Extending credit to consumers #9118612/09/02; 22:51:45

Many banks, credit unions, insurers and other financial institutions in U.S.A. have relaxed their standards. Taking on subpar customers with less creditworthiness. Secured credit cards, defaults, and late payments are rising.
mikalRe: Lending, credit#9118712/09/02; 23:03:21

I get fewer credit offers in the mail than in past years. Many institutions have tightened standards recently either out of necessity or as a precaution. Some of the popular methods, besides scrutinizing credit reports, are raising income eligibility requirements, lowering credit limits and raising fees.
Black BladeAsian Markets Lower#9118812/10/02; 00:11:23

Asian markets are in negative territory tonight following Wall Street lower.

- Black Blade

TEXPremiums on pre-1933 coins#9118912/10/02; 00:48:35

Is there anyplace on the internet that I could go to to see what the premiums are on pre-1933 coins (or any gold coin for that matter)?
TopazBelgian, Sierra.#9119012/10/02; 04:35:22

Good points you both make Yesterday.
The omnipotence of Central Banks in managing their relative economies is overstated to a large degree these days, sure they fiddle with things and then rely on witting or unwitting market participants to smooth over the edges, but in controlling the current situation I feel they will be found to be sadly lacking.
Take the "weak Dollar policy" some would suggest is before us - CB's can only do so much, fiddle here, talk there - the Market will arbitrarily decide if it is to be so...and should Foreign parties decide it's in "their" interests to maintain a "strong Dollar" then so be it....THEY wield the big creditors.
Large paperGold holders are likewise trapped, knowing if someone blinks it's curtains for the System. The System that has nourished them and theirs all these Years.

HipplebeckJPM Citi Enron#9119112/10/02; 05:02:01

The wall streeters are so corrupt, they can no longer discern right from wrong.

"While we don't think we did anything illegal or unethical, from the standpoint of reputation risk, we would not do this transaction today," she said.

BelgianChina and India and Gold #9119212/10/02; 06:16:41

WGC : China and India bring coins/24 ct bullion to the people (1,6 + 1,2 = 2,8 Billion individuals out of 6 Billion of world's population). China - 2003 = 8 tonnes and India distributes Swiss Gold.

The banks of these continents are providing the wealth of ages, Gold for the people, as to suggest to them, to build their own Gold-Reserve / standard in full property/ownership (Yep, Ari !). By selling Gold for fiat, confetti is taken out of circulation and not replaced by another debt-paper...but by *wealth*.
If Gold had to be considered as a barbaric relic...those enormous continents wouldn't encourage/suggest, Gold-Holdings to so much people.

The more bullion comes into people's hands, the more (bigger) base is being build for trading the *physical* in bigger physical markets.cfr. Expanding Dubai physical Gold-market.

Bullion distribution and trade must be encouraged next to the jewelry industry. The advantage of increasing bullion-holding, worldwide is that more trade in bullion brings in a greater demand for physical, to do more trade. Gold-Advocates should encourage physical Gold trade by all means. A store of wealth should not be pictured as rigid but rather very flexible...the Eastern way, for ages.

Why not introducing this physical Gold trade-principle, to western holders of perpetually endangered, virtual (paper) pseudo-wealth ? 3 Billion Eastern people have been doing this for ages but only Westerners can come up with lists of in-conviences. In Vietnam/Birma, there are no Brink-armered cars to transport wealth. There are no sophisticated safes to store/hide the precious...but these people do hold/trade their Gold-wealth.

It is the Goldoligarchs that prefer to stimulate Gold distributions in the East, and leaving the West to believe that their fiat is untouchable and eternal. Fair enough...but w'll see...soon !?

The CoinGuyICICI Bank to Sell Gold Coins #9119312/10/02; 06:37:40


Through the pure gold offer we hope to provide customers a convenient and reliable way of purchasing gold.''

Comment: I see competition in their future.

The(physical)Coinguy - will not be standing on line at a bank trying to purchase gold early, buy now, and beat the rush

CometoseDow Index quote on MRCI #9119412/10/02; 07:15:39

TO err is human. THE quote for the DOW on the MRCI and INO system sept 2003 Deranged.....THe numbers must be coming from a GOVT AGENCY ....They have the DOW down 7561 both places ....a sign perhaps ....

BelgianHoi Topaz#9119512/10/02; 07:20:47

Allow me to add something to your posting #91190, wich sums things up very well.
Two CBs, FED and ECB, act completely different :
The ECB's focus is primarily on its currency, the euro. The currency and nothing but the currency. If the currency-management produces a secundary benign economic situation...everybody is happy with a job well done. This contrast with the FED that sees its dollar, primarily as an economic tool to achieve many other goals than pure currency-management. The ECB desires first currency-stability, wich in normal situations should automatically lead to economic growth. The Fed wants growth first and if currency-stability comes as a secundairy, everybody is happy again.

Today we see a lot of pressure building on the ECB to make them act as the FED ! Economic- growth-first, currency-stability-later ! No good ! It is the debtberg that is in full command of artificial economic stimulations.
The more the ECB will give in (IR-decline) to this pressure, the more evidence we have of the "desperate-!!!" condition of the global economy.

Weak/strong, dollar/euro-policies are reaching absurd levels. An already quasi worthless dollar cannot be proposed as weak or strong. The dollar already "depreciated" for 70 years in a row. What is herein the meaning of weak or strong ?

How absurd is today's news that Lufthansa is going to save UAL ? The blind leading the deaf. Another example of artificial absurdity on and on. Many Thousands of people that are employed in ever loss-making enterprises and their derived activities !?

What is a CB worth without Gold ? How does one (CB) keep on managing a currency's stability in a detoriating economy that pushes its debtberg further with more debt and artificial activities ? It is against this background that I'm a believer of a nearby Free Gold as only savior of last resort.

When IRs go back up, one loses confetti...when stockmarkets decline further and stay flat for years, one loses confetti...when confetti depreciates faster, one loses confetti,...unemployment...defaults...devaluations...wars...hyperinflation........
And then we hear, over and over again, that it is sooooohhhhh "inconvenient" to hold physical Gold in ones possession !? Jesus !!!

Buena FeBelgian fed-ecb#9119612/10/02; 09:02:02

"....The Fed wants growth first and if currency-stability comes as a secundairy, everybody is happy again. ..."

the fed talks growth/economy first, then manipulates EVERYTHING else to maintain "currency-stability". it's the biggest con in world history, and we get a ring-side seat to watch it self-destruct!

(the world players play along until the appointed moment)

sectorDLJ Founder Donaldson Is Bush's Top Pick to Run SEC#9119712/10/02; 10:08:12

12/10 11:00

By Tom Cahill
New York, Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- William Donaldson, a co- founder of investment bank Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Inc., is President George W. Bush's top pick to become chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, an administration official said.

Donaldson had been approached about the job, said his former partner, Richard Jenrette. Donaldson would replace Harvey Pitt, who resigned last month. Calls to Donaldson at Donaldson Enterprises, his private money management firm in New York, were referred to the White House press office.

``He always says he wants to wear a white hat at whatever he does, to be on the side of the angels,'' said Jenrette, who founded DLJ with Donaldson in 1959.

Whew! Boy, am I glad the President picked an outsider for the SEC Chairmanship to clean up Wall Street!

Now... just watch all those crooks sweat!

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Gentlemen, Omega necklaces are THE hot fashion item out there#9119812/10/02; 10:43:31

Our very own lovely and talented Marie has used our network of connections to offer these beautiful and fashionable Omega necklaces to our clientele at prices WAY below what you will find in stores anywhere. We simply don't have to cover the overhead that jewelry stores do as they lease expensive space in the malls and on Main St., USA.

So call Marie 1-800-869-5115 ext.106 for great gift-giving suggestions and assistance, and avoid the steep jewelry store markups and sales taxes this year!

It will be the easiest thing you do all season. "Hello, Marie? What's the deal with Omega necklaces? My wife has been dropping hints about them for months..."

(see link given above for samples)

sectorYou Load 16,000 Tonnes of Gold Loans...#9119912/10/02; 10:46:47

...what do you get?

More "Notional" obfuscation designed to hide reality.

The notional value of derivatives isn't the gross value. In fact JP Morgan can buy $10 of notional derivatives with $.02 cents, all others must fork over $.20 cents but that's another story...

The catch is getting the derivatives in the first place. THAT comes from a gold loan.
Such loans are listed by the BIS as "Forwards and /or Swaps". The forwards and swaps ARE gross values. $10 of forward sales is $10 of gold. 16,000 tonnes of forward sales isn't chump change. Just ask Barrick -- the planet's expert in selling their unmined, "Deep Storage" gold. There are no notional calculations involved with forwards and swaps, which are contracts for specified assets in specified locations with an IMF required transactional verification document to be kept on hand.

So you may hear little birdies waving their arms about how "16,000 tonnes of BIS gold derivatives are notional values so don't sweat it", "The central banks have all their gold intact", "It's a Goldilocks World and our roads are paved with you-know-what". Don't you believe it for a moment.

The central banks report 33,00 tonnes of gold bullion...according to the BIS, they have loaned at least half of it to suppress the price of gold and support the "Strong Dollar Policy".

How much the US has loaned is a good question since the US has the lion's stake in this "Policy". Did the Fed loan all of our gold? No way to tell.

But we DO know that Mattingly lied about uttering the words "Gold Swaps" in the Feb 1995 FOMC Meeting transcripts, so he must have realized that those words left alone were damaging enough to issue a special press release indicating he was "Garbled" in transcription. "Gold Swaps" as Kryptonite. Taking that kind of word smithing risk suggests that the gold swaps were a tad more than could fit in a Christmas stocking but we can't say HOW much more.

However, we DO know that the Fed and Treasury guys [Peter Fischer] have been scouring the globe for every scrap of yellow metal they can find to feed the insatiable "Strong Dollar" monster. THAT sounds like the Treasury and Fed don't have a superabundance of gold just sitting around. Bangladesh...3 tonnes...thank you SIRS!

BTW Peter [Mr. Golden Bagman] Fischer hasn't landed on his feet yet even with the good Mr. Donaldson taking the SEC job.'s early yet...

...maybe a spot on ABC's "West Wing"...the next Rob Lowe. Think of the chicks.

steadyHow much the US has loaned is a good question since the US has the lion's stake in this "Policy". Did the Fed loan all of our gold? No way to tell.#9120012/10/02; 10:56:09

here is a way to tell how much gold they lent .

Accounting for the ESF's Gold Swaps

by James Turk
Copyright 2002 © by The Freemarket Gold & Money Report

A few weeks ago I received an interesting email from Andrew Hepburn. He is a diligent researcher who has done yeoman's work for, an organization formed for one purpose - to find the truth about who is keeping a lid on the gold price. Andrew and I recently have been sharing information and research on a number of matters, and he brought to my attention an intriguing footnote in a 1997 report called the "Consolidated Financial Statements of the US Government" (CFS).

The federal government completes the CFS annually. The CFS started being prepared, as I recall, about fifteen years ago in an attempt to measure what the US government's true financial picture looked like according to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. As readers may know, the US government does not use GAAP in its accounting. Therefore, Congress asked the General Accounting Office (GAO) to begin preparing an annual CFS that would provide accurate GAAP reporting of the US government's financial accounts. These reports were to be prepared and dated as of September 30th, which is the government's fiscal year-end.

I hadn't looked at the CFS for a number of years because they were not very detailed, and also because they included some major errors in accounting. For example, the CFS booked the US Gold Stock as an asset at its market value, but only recorded the corresponding liability for US Treasury Gold Certificates at $42.22 per ounce. This difference of course overstated the government's true net worth, or I should say, net deficit. For the fact is that according to GAAP, the US government has a negative net worth - negative $5.0 trillion in 1997 and negative $5.9 trillion in 2000. So this misreporting of the gold stock seemed to be a clear attempt to minimize this deficit net worth in order to make the government's financial picture look better than it really was. As a consequence, I never paid much attention to the CFS until Andrew brought footnote #2 of the 1997 CFS to my attention. It reported an accounting change, and it was one that I found interesting.

In 1997 the CFS began valuing the US Gold Reserve at $42.22 instead of market value, which I think is a significant change for two reasons.

1) This change reduced the US government's net worth by the difference between the market value of the asset and the government's liability, i.e., the US Treasury Gold Certificates. Given that the US government has a multi-trillion dollar NEGATIVE net worth, there must be a very good reason for them to make that negative net worth even bigger in the CFS. This good reason is the second point.

2) This accounting change - made presumably because of GAAP rules - gives substance to the argument that as of September 30, 1997, the US Treasury owed 261.7 million ounces of gold to the Federal Reserve, and not 11 billion dollars. In other words, this accounting change made clear that the Treasury owes the entire US Gold Stock to the Federal Reserve.

This meaningful change in the quest for accurate accounting by the GAO really spurred my interest. The Federal Financial Management Act of 1994 apparently was having a positive impact on the accuracy of the CFS reports. So I thereupon began reading the CFS for recent years, and particularly the footnotes. One can learn a lot by reading the footnotes to financial statements, comparing them from one year to the next and then studying any changes. And there were indeed several interesting changes.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Last minute gift ideas... coins... tap into our Daily Specials#9120112/10/02; 11:02:07

Call Jonathan 1-800-869-5115 ext.110 to see what's on his specials board today, available for immediate delivery and in time for Christmas. Don't delay. First come, first served from this daily specially earmarked inventory.

Please remember: it is your purchase from Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes this website.

CoBra(too)It 's now Official - The Perpetrators Perpetuate ... #9120212/10/02; 11:05:39

A Snow job for the Treasury, a Goldman guy as economic advisor and a fox from DLJ to police the Wall Street hen house.

Fabulous, X-Mas is saved for the White House, at least this X-Mas- and I'll put all my extra Dollars on my tree - as decoration.

CoBra(too)@ Sector #9120312/10/02; 11:17:03

How come JPM, barely rated as AA is still a valid and credit worthy financial instution as a counterparty to CB/FED gold lending/leasing?

DB and UBS, while they may suffer a similar fate down the road, may have problems to explain any deals with such an inferiorily rated counter party.

... and as you say they get a special treatment still - wow, what do they know, we don't?

Aristotlesteady, thanks for sharing Turk's comments#9120412/10/02; 11:33:01

That's a great demonstration of a man's ability to take an *inch* of wool and spin it into a mile-long yarn! Whaaaaaaw!

A small kernel of hard truth itself is reason enough to compel every rational being to put themselves on a *personal* Gold standard. So what's with all the wild and unnecessary smoke screens? It reminds me of a cheap magic show with no rabbit forthcoming. The hat is empty!

Gold. Get you some because you know enough to save yourself. --- Aristotle

TownCrierFed Trading Desk is active today (adding $8.25 billion) while FOMC meets#9120512/10/02; 12:10:11

The market in federal funds was trading right at the FOMC's current target rate of 1.25 percent, but, counterintuitively, that did not deter the Fed from stepping into the open market to inject $8.25 billion to our natiion's banking system reserves today using two-day repurchase agreements.

Thinking on it for a moment, I will chalk this one up to the holiday season and the resulting drain of cash. Yet again, the fed funds market was not indicative of tightness when you look at the rate...


TownCrierFOMC statement -- target rate unchanged#9120612/10/02; 12:18:59

Press release: December 10, 2002

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 1-1/4 percent.

The Committee continues to believe that this accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with still robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The limited number of incoming economic indicators since the November meeting, taken together, are not inconsistent with the economy working its way through its current soft spot.

In these circumstances, the Committee believes that, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are balanced with respect to the prospects for both goals for the foreseeable future.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Alan Greenspan, Chairman; William J. McDonough, Vice Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke, Susan S. Bies; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jerry L. Jordan; Donald L. Kohn, Robert D. McTeer, Jr.; Mark W. Olson; Anthony M. Santomero, and Gary H. Stern.

PippinArgentina - JPM#9120712/10/02; 12:48:40

Mentionned today on : former JPM's economist, Alfonso Prat-Gay, has become the new chief of Argentina's Central Bank.
steadyaristotle#9120812/10/02; 13:19:40

aristotle what do u mean are u saying thanks or are u saying turk is spinning a yarn!
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.What is the foundation of your wealth?#9120912/10/02; 13:47:24

Swiss gold francs
Gold Today!

Because you haven't heard the phrase "strong dollar policy" for a while.

While the Administration's Treasury Department has fallen mum on the issue, the FOMC target rate (at 1.25%) by the Federal Reserve (with a bank lifeline discount rate at 0.75%!) tells the score loud and clear. In recent Congressional testimony Chairman Greenspan said that there is no "meaningful limit" to the Fed's power to inject money into the economy. And consider the dollar's legacy position as a reserve asset currently being held throughout the world. These are the things that sudden financial crisis and hyperinflations are made of.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

Mr GreshamAnnals of Structured Finance, or, The Emperor Has No Insurance#9121012/10/02; 13:56:01

If you want to get an almost nauseating example of the financial shenanigans that have kept the bubbles going ("Hey -- what Bubble? it works! as long as we all believe in it!"), sink your teeth into this one. (66page .pdf doc, the beginning and conclusion tell most of the story). I'm sure Doug Noland will have his comments on it Friday. Bloomberg also has its report on Gotham's report.
Gary SevenFederal Open Mike Committee - post #91206#9121112/10/02; 14:31:45

Maybe I'm just getting cynical in my old age, but recently I've taken to laughing out loud every time I read one of those FOMC announcements.

The running gag about the productivity improvements is a scream.

And the "soft spot!" Stop it! I can't catch my breath :D

Christian(No Subject)#9121212/10/02; 14:47:30

Under a paper money system, a government can generate higher spending by borrowing from the future. The Treasury can not print money, it can only issue coins. It is the FED that issues the notes. Credit card receivables and other finance company receivables are now all securitized, bundled, and sold to the very banksters who rework it into the money market. Alan Greenspan has stated on two occassions that central banks stand ready to lease (sell) gold if the price rises thereby making every effort to subvert and manipulate the free market. This will continue. It is very profitable. As long as credit creation gold is priced at 30 times commodity gold, it is profitable to sell commodity gold and buy it back and reclassify it as credit creation gold. Our FED is a subsiduary of the Bank of England. When the British join the Euro, the US$ will merge with the Euro. In the mean time Greenspan has to do everything possible to keep the dollar economy going by issueing ever more new debt to pay down old debt. Dollars in circulation are decreasing at an fast rate because old debts must be paid from money that is no longer in circulation. That is why new debts are created to bring in new money to make possible the payment of old debt. All we are doing is trading old debt for new and more new debt. Mortgaging our and our childrens future.
HenriChristian#9121312/10/02; 15:10:10

So its kinda like making payments on existing credit card debt by signing up for new credit cards?
R PowellQuestions on derivatives notional value#9121412/10/02; 15:30:25

The question of derivatives and notional value has been currently on my mind. As a trader, I may be able to offer some clarification. I'm also going to ask some questions in the hopes that I may learn more about the gold derivatives situation.

Any derivative, as the name implies, derives its value from an underlying commodity or asset. A derivative's dollar value changes constantly to reflect the changing value of that from which it is derived. Derivatives in the gold market are futures or options, bought or sold. Even when the POG is static, all options are time wasting assets, in that the more time until option expiration, the more time value. There is more risk involved in selling an option with a year's time until expiration than one that expires next month.

A long term, long spread with identical strike prices close to the money, and same expiration date (example: December 2003 gold put and Dec. 2003 gold call, both bought) form a neutral position but both options have time value and one or the other will have intrinsic value with POG either above or below the strike price of $325. So, even though this is a neutral position, the notional value (marked-to-market) value is considerable (mostly time value). As of the close of Comex today the Dec. 325 gold call option is valued at $2280 and the Dec. 325 gold put is $1570. What is the combined notional value of these two options? Is it $2280 + $1570 or $3850, the cost to buy now? If, upon expiration the price of Dec. 2003 gold is exactly $325, then both these options will be worth nothing, $0.00, nada. Also, they represent a neutral position. At expiration, one or the other will be in-the-money (have some value) with POG at any value other than $325. If both are bought at $3850, and POG at expiration is $363.50, then the put would expire worthless and the call would be worth- $3850 or exactly what both options together originally cost. My question is, what right now is their notional value? What if we BUY a contract of December 2003 gold at, say $330/ounce and SELL one Jan. 2004 contract at say, $332/ounce. Now the difference is $2/ounce or $200 per contract or almost a neutral position. What is the notional value here? Is it $330 x 100 ounces = $33,000 plus $332 x 100 ounces = $33,200 for a grand total of $66,200 or is it $200??

What is the notional value of a position in which one million ounces of gold are leased and sold (gone!) but the seller buys 10,000 contracts of gold for delivery at exactly the same time his lease expires (and payback is due)?? The seller can even buy the 10,000 contracts before selling the leased gold to insure that the sale price is higher than the contract purchase price. This was easy for years as POG was declining. Not so easy now, of course but the question is- what is the notional value of this position? Two million ounces of gold are involved! Could a banking concern or mining company hedge its short position with long term call options? Could gold have been sold, in the past, at say, $300/ounce with the seller simultaneously buying long term call options (strike 300)? A one contract sale is worth $30,000 balanced by the purchase of an option costing maybe $500-1500. This is a neutral position but brought in $30,000 minus the small option cost to insure that the sale can be offset for no more than $30,000. The seller, obviously hopes to buy back at less. What, now is the notional value of this transaction?

What exactly is notional value?, it would seem, has a great deal to do with how it is determined?

Mr. Howe's words from "Gold Derivatives: Moving towards Checkmate",
"Of course, taking all the gold derivatives of any particular bank, it may be net long, net short, or market neutral."
Thank you, Mr. Howe! This has been my contention and complaint with the notion put forward by Sinclair and others that a derivatives meltdown is imminient solely because huge amounts of derivatives exist. Of course, huge amounts exist but what is the net value?? Is notional value a net value? If OTC positions are not transparent or fully disclosed, how can a net derivative value be determined?

Please don't misinterpret these questions as anti-gold sentiment, they are not. IMHO there are too many forces behind the gold bull market which I believe will grow for years. However, the question remains.
What is notional value?
How is it derived?

BoilermakerSEC Selection#9121512/10/02; 15:36:25

If GWB had really wanted some teeth in the SEC he would have gotten Spitzer. I'm totally disillusioned and think I will become a Democrat. It seems they have more fun anyway, even when working late at night.


mikalSEC#9121612/10/02; 16:28:20

Securities Enchantment Committee- Members oath: I do solemnly swear to dutifully abide and uphold these rules, rites and public relations stunts for the term of my employment and acknowledging that all Committee amendments and interpretations shall be binding until withdrawn, with no claim to right of any grievance, restitution or challenge of any kind against the Committee or its associated agencies, the U.S. government or its contractual partners, should exceptional circumtances result in any loss to myself or any third party in the performance of aforesaid duties or during my tenure, so help me Osiris.
Further, I promise to read and abide by all rules contained in my employee handbook- "Beat them at their own game."

BoilermakerFriedman Flak#9121712/10/02; 16:31:31

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Senior White House officials told CNN Tuesday that complaints from conservative groups about Stephen Friedman would not dissuade President Bush from tapping the veteran Wall Street executive for the top economic post on the White House staff.

Friedman's selection was revealed by sources Monday, but it was not publicly announced along with Bush's selection of John Snow as the new secretary of the treasury.

One source familiar with the matter said a health issue was among the reasons the planned appointment had not been announced. In addition, Friedman's investment portfolio is quite complicated and a review by White House lawyers was taking somewhat longer than expected.

Still vetting this sucker. Maybe he'll be smart and decline.


R PowellKudlow and the appreciating U.S. dollar#9121812/10/02; 16:32:40

The Snowman cometh

Larry Kudlow and A former Fed. Reserve Bank president named Ford were guests this afternoon on the peoples' stock picking television channel. While discussing the future strength or weakness of the U.S. buck, Kudlow stated that the U.S. of A. and China are the only two countries with healthy economies. With this rosy outlook for the American economy, he thinks the American (U.S.) dollar will appreciate and that the Fed. should therefore increase dollar liquidity. This is needed, he explained, to keep the dollar from becoming too strong against other currencies.
What a novel idea? Increase the supply of money! While we're at it, why not increase enough to cut in half the man-hours of work needed by the average person to service interest payments on debt? Then everyone can spend again with "irrational exuberance". The Fed. could monitor it's liquidity increases by watching commodity prices and the POG. Double the POG while deflating my debt payments to a mere pittance- now, no wonder the Greenman was knighted!
The Fed. could even give this policy a nickname. How about John Lawless or Snowjob?

WaveriderTime to Print Money#9121912/10/02; 16:49:30

"Indeed, the U.S. economy looks as though it may well be falling from the high wire of a sustainable economic recovery. The dreaded scenario that the Fed has been trying to avoid, wherein U.S. consumption growth slips before investment recovers, is emerging clearly. During the third quarter of 2002, U.S. investment growth remained lethargic at virtually zero, while in September weakening durable goods orders suggested that it may well turn negative again in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, U.S. real consumer spending has slowed sharply over the last several months. During the three months ending in October, U.S. real consumer spending fell at an annual rate of 1.7 percent, after having risen strongly at an annual rate of 5.2 percent from May through July. The bulk of this sharp drop in consumer spending is attributable to much lower spending on automobiles during September and October. Strong auto sales in July and August accounted for more than half of the 3 percent growth rate reported for the third quarter.

Fundamental Shift in Fed Strategy

...we are fast approaching the time, indeed we may have already passed it, when the Fed and other central banks have to contemplate a fundamental shift in strategy away from interest-rate targeting and toward money-supply and price-level targeting. In 2002, the Fed should be contemplating a "reverse-Volcker" move. It should abandon interest-rate targeting, which will be futile in any case if it requires more than another percentage point of cuts in the Fed funds rate. It should adopt money-supply targeting consistent with the resumption of stable inflation between 2 and 3 percent. It is far better to undertake the shift in monetary policy strategy early, before the central bank is forced to cut its target interest rate to zero, because that reduces the chance of a deflationary liquidity trap such as that currently plaguing Japan. Central banks are perhaps uncomfortable with money-supply and price-level targets, especially in a period of incipient deflation because, in effect, the central bank is trying to convince households and businesses that prices will be higher next year than they are this year and so that hoarding cash is not a good strategy. Clearly, creating expectations of higher inflation is a bad policy when inflation is already running at an unacceptably high level. But it is the right policy when deflation threatens.

Waverider: Interesting article from Economic Outlook on the merits of targeting money supply and price levels to jump-start the economy. Hmm...OVERT inflation instead of covert statistical massage - it's a matter of perception and psychological manipulation, yes? Interesting in light of Rich's post - Fords solution but his with a politically acceptable explanation - Snowjob indeed at many levels!

sector@ Cobra(Two) JPM's Ratings#9122012/10/02; 16:50:59

and another pass at notional values for RichPowell

How come JPM, barely rated as AA is still a valid and credit worthy financial institution as a counterparty to CB/FED gold lending/leasing?

We don't know what the specific contract specifications stipulate so we can only guess that some counter parties are less creditworthy than others. Or, that JP Morgan Chase has already failed and the Fed is just hiding the sordid details.

The Fed and BIS IS feverishly pushing Derivatives netting legislation, which is a change to bankruptcy codes world-wide. Yesterday the BIS issued a survey response entitled "Insolvency Arrangements and Enforcement".

Lots of heat around the derivatives bankruptcy fire(s) these days.

@ Rich Powell: The real issue for gold-bugs is not the towering notional value of derivatives but the original gold loans that can't be paid back to the respective bullion banks without exploding the price of gold which is to say the financial integrity of the world gold market is damaged by this malformation.

The Bundesbank reports "Gold receivables" as if the COULD receive them. However, they can't go and get that gold because the act alone would change the value of the "asset" by altering the market price of gold. The big GAPP problem is one of defining what an "Asset" is and weighing the gold necessary to fulfill a reasonable client demand scenario.

Tonight the COMEX warehouse eligible gold stock is 303,676 ounces or 9.44 tonnes. Hardly enough to satisfy the demand from a minor price spike.

The whole issue about notional value is really a red herring in the gold-bug world. What needs to be better appreciated is the original loan of gold used to create the derivatives. That value is gross for the central banks and is at least 16,000 tonnes in June 2001 according to the BIS. The central banks who say they have gold receivables (loans) as assets are at best misleading auditors and their populations and at worst perpetrating a fraud because they can't deliver sight anywhere to the gold they say is their asset.

You ask:

[What is the notional value of a position in which one million ounces of gold are leased and sold (gone!) but the seller buys 10,000 contracts of gold for delivery at exactly the same time his lease expires (and payback is due)??]

The notional value here is a sham, whatever its technical value, because there is no gold in sight [Maybe in the ground as unmined gold] to replace the original contract…only promissory gold. That is the essence of the huge problem faced by the central banks…they no longer hold title to 16,000 tonnes of gold in their vaults and they can't get the gold from their counter parties.

Sinclair and other traders may imagine a COMEX monster short covering squeeze but there is more likely to be a simple planned default in COMEX precious metals. It happened on the TOCOM in palladium. Here's your contract cash back guys…sorry!

Gold on the open markets of the world will soar but the much ballyhooed COMEX or even the LBMA paper windfall profits from a short squeeze will disappear with the stroke of a regulator's pen possibly due to the execution of a preplanned action.

This is why it is so important to focus on the fundamentals of a gold investment. What is one buying and why? Who could deflect you from your profits and how could they do it?

Meanwhile there's money to be made trading the rise and fall of the HUI and XAU, COMEX options but it's a bit like dancing through flames...too slow and pooof!

Paper AvalancheUK to join Euro#9122112/10/02; 16:53:41

Does anyone know if the vote by the UK to join the Euro is still scheduled for May 2003? If so, and if the premonitions mentioned on the golden trail are correct, then at that time the world will trade paper dollars for any price in order to secure physical gold. Is there any indication that the vote may be held earlier or later that May? Is there any chance that the referendum would not pass? In any event, assuming that May 2003 is correct, that is only about 140 days from now. I would be appreciative of any feedback or input on this subject.


AristotleSome related items for sector and steady#9122212/10/02; 17:01:43

Sector, you said:

= = = =
you may hear little birdies waving their arms about how "16,000 tonnes of BIS gold derivatives are notional values so don't sweat it", "The central banks have all their gold intact"
= = = =

I hope this was something of an indication that you at least have read my post to you two nights ago, even if it's also an indication that you've elected not to think on it as requested.

I say, "notional" AND I say "sweat it... (or not.)" So NOW where do we stand?? I say, own Gold so you don't have to. (Sweat it, that is.) That's the primary message intended for consumption.

Look, let's slice it another way, because there's a more important perspective that you guys are losing in your stooped-over clue-seeking Sherlock Holmes-like demeanor.

Your energies and underlying message seem to be set upon to prove that the U.S. Treasury has lost control/ownership of its Gold. Beyond the fact of the matter that the Treasury has monetized every ounce in cooperation with the Fed at a rate of $42 per each through the mechanism of Gold Certificates, what's the point of all this?

Let's say the U.S. Treasury no longer has its Gold. Ft. Knox and all other depositories are empty. Heck, here's a more convincing tale... let's say they're FULL!

OK, so even if ALL the Gold is right where the Government says it is, what good is that Gold to you, personally? What do you think your fair share of it is? Perhaps a whopping ounce! Wowsers! So even if the vaults ARE full, when do you expect to get your hands ON your fair share, or otherwise, how will the government use your share on your personal behalf? Or try this: How would you *want* them to use it -- top what effect and through what mechanism of employment?

Vaults full or empty, either way, you're not going to ever get your hands on it, and neither will I. Alas, we must simply buy our own personal supply of Gold reserves. There is no such thing as ownship of Gold (and its benefits) if "held" through proxy.

In that same regard, this Gold is no good to you *personally* because you don't control it. And likewise, you could say it's "notional" inasfar as the Fed is concerned with Gold Certificates because the Gold sits in the Treasury's vaults. Our Administration didn't (couldn't!!!) honor convertibility obligations to our international trading partners in 1971 for which we'd previously received and enjoyed real goods. So then in a somewhat parallel vein, you *really* think we're (i.e., the "people's" Treasury) gonna be held over a barrel for delivery by our own quasi-governmental Fed on a similar basis of "obligations" from Gold Certificates???? Further, do you think a commercial bank, foreign or domestic would fair any better on the basis of swap agreements???? Ahh ha ha ha! If it hasn't left the vault of the original owner, buddy, it's value to these second and third parties is, at best, notional any way you slice it -- a derivative number on a financial instrument that conveys information but no real wealth. In a financial crunch, when have you ever known the rules of the game to be held inviolate? Such is the world we live in.

Wealth is (truly and only) in the hand of the beholder.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

sectorMea Culpa, Sorry Ari -- I haven't read your previous post...#9122312/10/02; 18:26:37

...and of course I agree that owning one's gold is the only answer to...

...this country's unsustainable economic and monetary policies.

The interest in how much central bank [US included] gold remains unencumbered by swaps or loans is important only in so far as it provides an indication of how much longer the cabal of gold price fixers will loan, and their acolytes will sell their gold to suppress its price. That's all.

Some of us feel that they won't reduce the central bank stores to zero for THAT condition would cause the direct failure of the Western currency system.

A much better tactic would be a strategy of periodic retrenchments, similar to military warfare, with gold rising as an analogy to the opposition gaining ground as it advances. The cabal's ally is stealth. They lost their cloaking device this last week when the world learned that they had sold half of their gold as a consequence of the Strong Dollar Policy.

The focus is on the T* date. The personal preparations for that interim capitulation event must have already been made for it will be far too late then to ride the golden rocket. All the available metal will have been purchased in a flash, a telephone call from deep pockets..."All of it, Sir!", "Spot plus a fair margin", thank you.

That's who the unprepared masses will be bidding against on the T* date...the deepest of deep pockets.

In the following days the cabal will let gold a big 1,000 pound tuna. Set the drag light and hope there's enough line. Hope that profiteers will come out and sell the spike at, say, $1,000 to $3,000. Then use their remaining central bank stocks to "Help" the price to stabilize around the 10X level.

Husbanding their resources for the next battle.

Sadly, there need not BE any more battles if the central governments would face reality and stop their rapacious inflationist ways.

AristotleSomewhere near the crux of the Gold/money issue#9122412/10/02; 18:26:43

This portion of sector's comments helps to demonstrate the heart of the issue about whether or not Gold is (or else should be) used/viewed as the economic medium we all know and love -- Money.

"The Bundesbank reports "Gold receivables" as if they COULD receive them. However, they can't go and get that gold because the act alone would change the value of the "asset" by altering the market price of gold."

As we all know, when a bank lends currency/money, the loan agreements are basically "money receiveables" (i.e, a contract for some form of income stream through an installment payback plan) and are listed on the asset side of the bank's books.

If we are all now prepared to declare that it is NOT OK for a bank to do this with Gold, (I for one would like to see the practice abolished as the abomination of private property that it is,) then we are effectively saying in the same breath say that we don't want Gold subject to the same abuses money is subjected to, and hence, Gold has its rightful place in our lives as portable property, not as money.

Just as deflation is not pleasant nor politically acceptible as it applies to national currencies, neither is it pleasant nor acceptible among the parties involved as it alternately applies to Gold. The inflation of the Gold supply happens as paper Gold derivatives are trotted out to the business and public as though they were "as good as" Gold.

It's shouldn't take much thought to convince anyone who takes the time to do so that it is advantageous to buy their Gold now while the market's "Good-as-gold" confidence remains high on the inflated supply of these derivatives and substitutes.

For just as surely as an inflated currency will inevitably lose purchasing power against the delivery of real goods, including an ounce of Gold, so too will the inflated Gold derivatives lose "convertibility power" against the actual deliverability of Gold.

Think on it, then go for the...

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

a nation of onestocks#9122512/10/02; 18:30:53

The only sensible way to make any money in stocks is to buy shares in companies that consistently make a reasonable profit and which reliably pay reasonable dividends to shareholders. By investing in such 'equities' the common investor can avoid falling into the patterns of behavior encouraged by the fed, which consists to a significant degree of manipulating investors into putting their money where the fed wants it, in part by adjusting the interest rate, thereby making either 'equities' or 'securities' less or more attractive. The interest rate motivation, in deciding whether to hold bonds or to invest in stocks, falls apart if the investor can make a reasonable amount of money by holding on to shares in companies that consistently make a reasonable profit and which reliably pay their shareholders a reasonable dividend. It is the desire to make more than a reasonable return that gets investors into trouble. That's why greed has a bad name. And it really is a bad thing. Sure, growth stocks surge and fly high. But they also tend to crash and fail. Only a few do not. Steady companies offer a real return and a chance to ignore the manipulations of the fed to an appreciable extent. If a larger number of common investors would learn to do good, basic research and then invest their own money in sound companies, the fed would be left spinning its wheels, as far as adjusting the interest rate for the purpose of manipulating investors is concerned.
a nation of onenot a new discovery about human nature#9122612/10/02; 18:55:36

As long as company insiders can make more wealth for themselves by sucking up money that has been put into the company's common stock by ordinary investors -than by following through on legitimate business goals- there will always be vampires at the top.

Also, it is fundamentally dishonest to call common stocks 'equities,' even though it is understandable in terms of what is meant, when, in real terms, shares of stock do not represent ownership of anything real that the investor has paid for. Of course there is the 'par' value. But that is not an equity in the sense that the shareholder actually owns anything. Long before a company is liquidated the value of the share goes to almost nothing, or nothing. It's kind of like if I sold 'shares' in my truck, on the promise that I intended to drive people around for a fee and divide the profits among the shareholders. I could sell a lot shares, hypothetically. In fact I could make more money selling shares than by driving people around for a fee. It also wouldn't be extremely difficult to make the venture more profitable than it really is. Then I could sell more shares. Eventually I could say, "Gee, guys. I'm not making a profit." Then declare bancruptcy. I would wind up keeping my truck, because I would need it in order to stay in business. And although the shareholders might theoretically 'own' it, they couldn't come and get it. In the meantime their shares would be worth nothing. Maybe I could even get them to pay me to take them back, if I wrote the prospectus right. And while they were taking my corporation -not me- to court, I could probably figure out some way to sell more shares in the same truck, or shares in some other sneaky venture. I think this is basically what many American businesses are essentially about.

It is the reason stocks are in trouble.

And it is why gold makes so much sense.

Aristotlea nation of one, yours is a good post, too, near the heart of a related money mater#9122712/10/02; 18:56:34

"If a larger number of common investors would learn to do good, basic research and then invest their own money in sound companies, the fed would be left spinning its wheels, as far as adjusting the interest rate for the purpose of manipulating investors is concerned."

Gosh that's an awfully BIG "IF" !!! And you *know* it, brother!

Alas, our system seems destined to be ever up against this two-part truism: a larger number of common investors WON'T do this sound research or abandon their greed, AND FURTHER, this part of our population are all voters! So the politcos and the Fed do as we see them do.

What ever is a boy to do? Exit, stage right.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Liberty HeadA Question About Gold#9122812/10/02; 19:09:28

I would like to have a better understanding of how and why certain gold transactions obtained their status as non-reportable to the U.S. government. I believe Gold Eagles and Philharmonics are exempt from reporting requirements.

I become very suspicious when the government is being nice to me.

Thank you one and all. This is the best public forum on the web.


a nation of oneenter stage left#9122912/10/02; 19:13:05

Thanks. I can use all the praise I can get. I do try. Really.

Of course evolution will resolve this problem. We forget that a day is a very short time. Even a lifetime is barely enough to see things really clearly. But people do learn. And people do change. It has only been several hundred years since the so-called industrial revolution began to rip people out of their comfortable -though financially poor- positions in the countryside and fling them hastily into the dank cities. That took centuries. This will take centuries too. But the choice is between blunt reality and eternal suckerhood. How many people are there who are willing fill the evolutionary niche defined by going to the office every day, working for someone not themselves, making just enough to raise a family and a little more, save a few bucks, invest some, loss it to insiders or people smarter than themselves, go home, watch television, and return to the office the next day -all without once thinking seriously about rioting in the streets or harming anyone? At some point -and this is what we are seeing- more and more people are going to get the idea that they can do something to make things better, and one thing that has always worked is probably unmentionable on this forum.

silvercollectorNortel and gold#9123012/10/02; 19:38:21

What a major league crock of whale excrement.

Nortel lost 20.67% Monday and was up today 19.2%. What is this due to? What are the monetary/fiscal fundamentals of Nortel that would ACCOUNT for a 20% down day followed by a 20% up day a la back-to-back?

This is a crock.

This is not an investment market, this is a traders market. How does one 'look out' past 20 minutes in this enviroment?

And then there's gold....

Although gold has floated in a 25 cent range in the recent half-week or so, it's beaten for 2 bucks at 9:30 this morning. Oh yeah, I know the drill, the dollar bounced a little at the same time, blah, blah, blah.

Yeah, and they found SCUD missles in a ship near Yemen headed for Africa. NOTHING DISTURBING, so gold is down 40 cents.

A year or two ago I was luke-warm to the concept of manipulation, 'management' as I like to say but I've changed my mine. I hope the brazen son's of dogs loose all their money, they freeze on the streets begging for cigarettes and they die of leprosy.

The mob would at least shoot you before you bled to death. The sooner we get rid of these crooked ^%$$@#@$&*&^%# the sooner society can move forward.

AristotleSome plain old thoughts on Gold property, and by no means an exhaustive treatment#9123112/10/02; 19:39:05

It's portable! And a single briefcase can accommodate more Gold coins than most people could ever hope to afford. Don't like what's become of your neighborhood? "Have wealth, will travel!" It's liquid and honored anywhere rational humans are found.

You don't have to pay sales tax on it when you buy it. (If you have been, let me steer you toward our noble hosts for a much-needed reorientation.)

Unlike real estate, you don't have to pay ownershi/property tax each year while you own it.

That last thing applies to a lot of stuff, though. Furniture, televisions, whatnot. Of these things, the following should be noteworthy. Insofar as these non-Gold items of poperty are held/used in the course of business, the IRS will acknowledge them as expensable through a depreciation schedule. Why? Because all of these non-Gold things crap out -- become obsolete or wear down and break. But not Gold, baby!! There is no depreciation schedule for Gold. That bit *alone* should send you signals -- a good vibe.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Golden BearThe Mogambo Guru on Bernanke....and Gold#9123212/10/02; 19:40:08

"...Fortunately or not, we no longer live in the real world. We live in Government World. "Nothing looks familiar. Nothing makes sense. Things are all backward and weird and strange," he said.

- If the number of dollars and other currencies are increasing due to coordinated central bank shenanigans, but the stock of gold is still fairly static, then isn't the real inflation-adjusted value of gold decreasing? And is this an abnormal state of affairs? And don't things tend to revert to the mean? Then isn't gold undervalued? Then isn't this a clarion call to buy gold?

The answer to all these questions from inquiring minds like yours, is, yes.

- Now that the Fed is revealed as monetary terrorists ("we will explode your money supplies and destroy your economies!"), taking our customary look at the outrageous weekly credit-creations of the Fed seems almost too academic. So, instead of rehashing that particular set of numbers, suffice it to say that they did what they do. All week.

- The Economist magazine has finally updated the budget balance as a percentage of GDP for the USA, and it is 3.1%. Fabulous. The EU is all concerned that a few of the countries in that economic zone may exceed 3%, and here we are, the biggest player in the GDP world, emulating the worst of the worst. How embarrassing. Ugh...."

GB: Couldn't agree more....

silvercollectorChristian#9123312/10/02; 19:44:21

My good man, why don't you play us a new record?

I mean that nicely, honest. A year ago you were worried about taking a bullet in the back. How's that going?

Tell us something wild. There was a week or two you had us as a insider. Curl our hair man.

silvercollectorChristian#9123412/10/02; 19:45:27

..perhaps we had you as an insider..
R Powellsector // notional and real gold shortage#9123512/10/02; 20:04:46

Thanks for the response.

You said, "The real issue for gold-bugs is not the towering value of derivatives but the original gold loans that can't be paid back to the respective bullion banks without exploding the price of gold...."

I couldn't agree more. But you modified the value of derivatives with "towering". I still can not accept this without some clarification as to what notional value is, specifically how it is calculated. Even if all derivative contracts were visible for inspection, which they are not (OTC secrecy), it would be a unbelievable undertaking to find the total net position. Even if this were possible, it is forever changing and being "delta-hedged". Without more explanation, the fact that derivatives exist (which they do in huge numbers!) is not enough to justify any great price change.

As for repaying gold loans, what if the banks loaned gold to a bullion bank on paper. The bank sells the gold to a third party, again on paper. We know the banks did this to generate fiat to invest for a higher return than the low lease rate. What if the third party bought the same way most large investors buy in any futures market- ON PAPER! The third party probably hedged in some manner but bought primarily to hold a paper certificate for profit. The buy will be offset (as are almost all futures investments) at a profit or loss paid IN PAPER (fiat, cash, credit on account, etc.) Where is the original physical gold? It may be right where it's always been, in the vaults of the central banks. 5,000 tonnes as per GFMS estimates or 15,000 tonnes as per other estimates, it makes no difference because it's all a paper game. I've "controlled" thousands of ounces of gold and even more silver (bought and sold) for many years now, but I never had the metal I sold (couldn't have produced it to save my life) and could never pay for even 1% of what I've bought over the years. It's all a paper game. SDRs on gold? More paper games. Aristotle is right in stating that if you want real physical metal in hand, you must buy physical (not paper) and store it yourself. I still believe I'm correct in thinking that outrageous numbers of derivatives do not imply any serious price change (short of the rogue wave, LTCM type event) and gold leased (and sold) may have no more bearing on physical supply than the number of CBOT corn contracts have on the amount of corn in this world.
IMHO there are numerous reasons why the POG will go higher but they are derived from supply and demand. By this I refer to the supply and demand of physical gold AND that of fiat money. There are, of course, other reasons ranging from politics to psychology. Almost all are bullish.
Perhaps one of the major differences between gold and silver is that, while both have suffered tremendous drawdowns through demand exceeding supply for many years, the drawdown in silver has been consumed, while even that gold which is now in the form of jewelry, still exists. How much silver is there in a $2-3 million Patriot missile? How much will be re-cycled after the Patriot shoots down a Scud?

Again, your words...refering to my example of a hedged, neutral gold position.
"The notional value here is a sham, whatever its technical value, because there is no gold in sight to replace the original contract... only promissory gold. This is the essence of the huge problem faced by the central banks... they no longer hold title to 16,000 tonnes of gold in their vaults and they can't get the gold from their counter parties."

You call the notional value a sham. I'll agree, although I'd describe it more as unknown and unknowable without much more market transparency. Even then, knowing the notional NET position (which I suspect would almost always be near neutral) is of very dubious value. Don Lindsey (Don L of gold-eagle) has been compiling data on options and, I believe, their break even point at expiration. I'm guessing he's trying to determine if POG at expiration does tend toward this even point.
Can the central banks get their physical gold back? Did it ever leave? Did it ever leave? All other leases, liens, SDRs, and other contracts (limited only by the shysters imaginations) can be settled in cash.
From a dubious memory I recall M.K. addressing this issue some time ago when he stated that of the 33,000 total tonnes the central banks were reported to hold many years ago, they still after all the hoopla, held about 30,000 tonnes. From a traders point of view, I'd consider this central bank held gold as not available, other than the Washington Agreement yearly amount, then I'd work the numbers and see an ongoing supply/demand deficit. As far as massive central bank selling, doubtful and only then to stop a massive upward price spike.

I believe you are most certainly correct in saying that Comex hasn't a great store of gold (or silver). It is the supplier of last resort and, should prices greatly rise, they'll do so before these stores are ever used. Comex is a paper game. The sellers of physical silver do not use Comex and silver users do not buy from Comex for PHYSICAL, but both suppliers and users do use Comex for hedging. With silver, IMHO we will see the day when delivery of physical is taken from Comex warehouses, as, even that little 107 million or so ounces is now a substantial amount of the remaining existing supply.
I hope you opinion of paper profits negated in the paper casinos is not prophetic. I can see no reason why the powers that be would care one way or the other who wins or loses fiat in such a small market. But I'll heed your warning. I'll sell enough to cover all my fiat needs well before silver reaches $50/ounce. (smile) If I'm forced to accept a cash settlement, fine, I don't have the resources to really take delivery anyway, never did! It's always been a paper game for me, I buy my physical silver coins from M.K.

I'm still curious as to what notional value is and specifically, how it is derived. If you learn anything in this regard, please pass it along. Too many have bandied about the term without anyone explaining it, at least in terms I could understand.

Black BladeNatural gas prices set to rise further, Energy Department says#9123612/10/02; 20:25:34


Natural-gas prices are poised to rise further this winter because of cold weather and heavy demand, the U.S. Department of Energy said Monday. The federal agency had said last month that it was likely that ample amounts of gas in storage should ensure stable winter gas prices. Now, however, it has raised the possibility of further increases in gas prices in its short-term energy forecast. Gas storage, although still above the five-year average in late November, was below year-ago levels. As a result, a retreat in gas prices seems unlikely, the federal agency said Monday. "Indeed, natural gas prices are poised to rise even further through January or February," the forecast said. This fall the Energy Department predicted that heating bills would be about 20 percent higher for the winter, or about $100 for the average household. The agency now says bills could increase about $150. Other analysts are predicting that prices could spike this winter, which would increase bills more.

Black Blade: As I have been saying. Looks like the "rocket scientists" at Energy are a little slow off the marks as usual. I am still compiling info and in a few days I will (hopefully) lay out the scenario as to why energy prices will always be higher from now on. We as a nation had our chance to avert this fiasco and as usual we blew it big time. Even with an aggressive exploration and massive drilling program it is too late. Fortunately the economy is in the crapper and if we are "very lucky" we just might squeeze through this next year if the weather cooperates. Other than that get a good supply of blankets if you live in the north country and I don't know what to tell those who will swelter in the south come summer. Oh yeah, US business will likely take a huge hit on the bottomline as a result.

Black BladeOPEC Seeks to Cut Output, Curb Cheating, Saudi Says #9123712/10/02; 20:39:47


Vienna, Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, and its OPEC colleagues will probably agree to lower production to keep prices around $25 a barrel, a Saudi oil ministry official said. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is concerned a seasonal drop in demand in the second quarter of next year may hurt prices, said the official, who declined to be identified by name. OPEC, which meets Thursday, last month pumped 12 percent more oil than targeted, a Bloomberg survey found. Crude prices in London have jumped 29 percent to around $25.50 a barrel this year, partly on traders' concern that a war with Iraq may disrupt Persian Gulf oil supplies. OPEC's plan to bolster prices through the first half of next year may threaten an economic recovery in the U.S., the top oil consumer.

Black Blade: OPEC doesn't have a very good track record at keeping to their self imposed quotas. However, the strike in Venezuela continues and production has come to a standstill.

Black BladeDrastic pension changes proposed#9123812/10/02; 20:49:53


WASHINGTON -- The Bush administration proposed sweeping new pension rules today that will encourage companies to adopt a type of retirement plan that has been under attack for three years for what critics call a tendency to strip benefits from older employees. Employers are cheering the new proposals, which could become final in 90 days. Some big companies have cut more than $100 million a year from their expenses by switching plans. Employers say that the rules are good for workers, too, because the rules will spur more companies to provide pension plans. But worker-rights advocates are criticizing the proposals, saying they permit reductions in the value of employees' benefits. Under the new rules, companies will be able to reduce or wear away benefits if they use "reasonable" interest rates and mortality projections in calculating the value of pensions when they convert to a cash-balance plan.

Black Blade: Looks like Bush is out to screw the older worker and let companies off the hook for raiding pension plans. Companies were under the gun to inject funds into pension plans as most have been hit hard by falling values of investments. As I say, the only one you can trust is yourself. It is up to you to look out for number one because those at the top are out to screw you. As always, get out of debt and stay out of debt, stash enough emergency cash for several months’ expenses, accumulate Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program of nonperishable food and basic necessities.

DOWNUNDERROCK A BYE BABY - - - Don Stott at his best - - -#9123912/10/02; 21:06:23

This is well worth a read --pity it's not printed in the mainstream papers.

SNIP - - -
We MUST shake the dollar savings habit, and that's as plain as I can put it.

We have been raised on the dollar, loved it, used it, worked for it, and saved with it, but the latter must stop, and stop NOW. The fancy engravings of former presidents, do not give them value or legitimacy. Some of the things we were raised with, are still good and true, such as table manners, good grammatical usage, and daily bathing. We can have hobbies of whatever, and enjoy them, but we must get out of our heads and thoughts that the dollar has value. The rock-a-bye-baby siren song of the dollar must be eliminated, because it is a habit and melody designed to lull us into trust, when such trust is unwarranted. A massive dollar lobotomy is needed.

Black BladeU.S. Retailers' Sales Slowed Last Week, Survey Shows #9124012/10/02; 21:10:44


New York, Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers such as Target Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. slowed last week as consumers concerned about job cuts and the economy curtailed spending, another sign that holiday sales may be disappointing. Strong sales during the post-Thanksgiving weekend failed to overcome sluggish buying during the rest of November. Analysts say department stores and clothing retailers may become more aggressive with merchandise markdowns and promotions in the weeks before Christmas to avoid some of the disappointment that occurred in November.

Black Blade: Deep discounts may help sales to tapped out consumers but it will squeeze profit margins. A sign of the times.

Black BladeLatin American unemployment soars#9124112/10/02; 21:20:19

Many people are angry at their plunge into poverty


Seventeen million Latin American people are out of work as the unemployment rate in the region has shot up to its highest level since 1980, according to the International Labour Organisation (ILO). The rise could "destabilise the two big accomplishments of the 1990s; a shift toward democratic governments and greater participation in globalisation," said ILO regional director Augustin Munoz. With only one in three workers in the region having access to a social security system, and with almost three in four new jobs being informal, poverty is rife and job security virtually non-existent. "There are fewer jobs, and existing jobs are lower paying," said the director of ILO's office in Chile, Ricardo Infante. "A general economic slowdown and severe recession in some countries made for poorer employment indicators, in particular, higher unemployment and lower income," the ILO said.

Black Blade: A preview of the coming Perfect Storm in the U.S. Of course few here are anywhere near prepared.

knotakarethe Gold Derivatives Market#9124212/10/02; 21:21:39

Here is why paper gold is a house of cards:

Jpm leases $100 million in gold from the fed; they take the 100 million, and say on a 10 to 1 basis, they use this gold loan as collateral for 1) a $250 million loan to ABX (ABX has pledged its production related to the loan to JPM) 2) JPM writes $250 million in call options on the gold options markets 3) JPM purchases 250 million in junk bonds 4) JPM invests 250 million in private equity ( for its own account) 5) JPM uses the $250 million gold for future delivery from ABX to repeat (on a 10 to 1 basis) steps 1 to 4 with another Gold producer. They have used their bullion loans and loans to miners to increase their leverage on the short side, so as gold has moved up in this bull market, their leverage kills them very quickly.

I think some of you are working these definations of words like "money" and "notational value"to death. Be carefull not to miss the important implications of the leverage and that the insiders will bend the rules to their favor in a crisis.

Rich you said "I hope you opinion of paper profits negated in the paper casinos is not prophetic. I can see no reason why the powers that be would care one way or the other who wins or loses fiat in such a small market." This is not a small market. The fees that the bullion banks have earned is huge, but their offsetting liabilities may be much higher based on the gold price. The paper gold market is the real sham, and not the notational amounts of these gold derivatives.

If JPM had to mark all their gold derivatives to monthy market prices, they probably would be wipped out. This is why Sir Allan doesn't want the derivatives markets regulated, because this casino could crumble sooner, rather than a little latter.


sector@ Rich P -- Notional Notions#9124312/10/02; 21:35:19

Notional principal amount:

In an interest rate swap, the predetermined dollar principal on which the exchanged interest payments are based.

The above is the short answer to your question regarding the definition of notional values. Just exchange gold for interest rate swap.

To suggest, as LTCM did, that total notional values have no risk weight ignores the disastrous history of LTCM. They imagined, according to Nicholas Dunbar, author of Inventing Money, that they had hedged everything. Actually, they were limiting the probabilities to 1 in 10,000 outlier events. This probability is easily reached when multiple variables are involved but that's another story for the econo-physics guys.

Your argument that the COMEX is a paper game is just not correct. There are gold and other commodities at the market's core just as there was gold backing the deposits of American banks in the 1930s. When those banks loaned more gold-backed money than they had, they subjected themselves to default…the same kind of default that the COMEX, LBMA and all other central banks face today and for exactly the same reasons – they have loaned more and contracted derivative obligations for more gold than they have. Each expansion in derivatives and each contraction in backing physical ["Eligible" category] has diminished the contract viability.

To ignore the possibility that a client could buy the COMEX into default is a dangerous tactic as the contract holders on the TOCOM learned in palladium. This is so even though there is a cap on single transactions. The wise raider would coordinate with numerous assaults.

The notional values of gold derivatives are a marker of the size of the underlying claim on the supporting gold…physical gold. This is why the integrity of the gold market has come under increasing strain as the loans and their subsequent derivatives have risen as the available ["Eligible"] gold dwindles under severe physical demand conditions.

FOA has written eloquently about the convergence of paper and physical demand dynamics. We are near the cross-over from paper to real metal today.

There is no way that the COMEX could survive even a small demand shock without default. That such a demand shock has yet to occur should give today's players slim solace. It is simply a condition of shrewd off-take strategies by those who recognise the government's desire to sell its treasury cheaply.

We have no argument between us. The "Paper game" exists only so long as players imagine they can get gold if they desire. With the advent of new information they now know that the central banks have expended and permanently lost title to half their treasuries of gold. This is proven by the Bundesbank's Annual Report's acknowledgement that their "Gold" is now "Gold and Gold Receivables". Buba knows perfectly well that they have lost title to the gold receivables and that final receipt is now dependent on a long list of counter party performance constraints. A rising pog wrecks those gold receivables becaue it wrecks the balance sheets of the borrowers.

One thing is crystal clear. The central banks have loaned and therefore lost 16,000 tonnes out of 33,000 tonnes their gold wealth. It's still in many of their vaults but it doesn't belong to them and the legal owners have IMF documentation that so stipulates.

It is all a question of fractional gold banking that has reached its limit of underlying physical-support gold and the market's newfound awareness of eroding gold market integrity.

Golden BearSinclair on Gold Dinar, Death threats....thanks to goldstandard500#9124412/10/02; 21:45:52

The Battle
Gold's Supremacy

A Technical Review & Heads Up
James Sinclair

I need to keep tightly focused because the points that gold is hitting inter-day are simply too
perfect to be perfect. The first break out above $324.50 took it almost to $332 inter-day. Now the ESF right from this morning's cash New York market sold the metal targeting a close below $324.50 as their goal. Are they reading these postings? Did I touch the rawest of all nerves by having the guts to publish who in fact stands at the top of the feeding chain in the management of world market for political purposes. Yes, political. Certainly not economic.

Was today's not too hidden death threat I received on my email, supposedly over the gold Dinar, truly a product of having simply revealed the facts of a gold development in Malaysia or something else. What a price to pay for service to my fellow man. Did I touch a raw nerve in my discussion of the Exchange Stabilization Fund and their activities in market quoting exact times of entry and exit, especially the market for the dollar & gold. Well they were at it again today in a manner only some one quite afraid of the market would adopt.

Well, if they are reading this material then take note. Your actions most certainly in gold today are so obvious that they reveal that you are scared stiff over the Asian and Islamic interest that continually buys everything you throw at them. You know this interest is not going to be scared out of the market so whose time and money are you wasting? Gold is not only going now to a new recover high but also above the old time high recorded in March 1980. In time your activities will be revealed as totally manipulative for more than political or society's economic purposes. You will not be able to lay off responsibility on a sitting Secretary of the Treasury, but rather you and others know that the ESF has taken on a life of its own for its own purposes.

Call it the "Gold Cartel" or "Central Banks" or large hedge fund interest but the most common presence in the gold and dollar market is the Exchange Stabilization Fund. The ESF is identified by many different names by observers but it is primarily and only the ESF. It all comes back to the ESF in the sense that they do the dirty work of the central banks from the perspective of one that favors golds. By using the commercial metals dealers as their stealth agents, the ESF has given impetus to the short side trading by these entities for the gold cartel's own accounts, now caught in a to the death financial fight with the price of gold over their short side spreads.

Today right at the US opening of the Comex, the Calvary having ridden into New York cash trading pounced on the Comex longs. Can't have the gold market saying bad things about the new appointment for Secretary of the Treasury certainly on the same day of the month that the Federal Reserve meets to discuss economic factors.

Note what occurred in the dollar at 9:12 this morning US time and three guess's who SAVED THE DAY for the buck?

Please also note at 9:13 what started to happen in the cash market for gold and continued into the opening of the Comex with a goal of pushing gold under our $324.50 number. That presence was in the market both in the dollar and gold until 10.14 AM. Yet for all that muscle from that point on gold rose and the dollar fell.

We are very close to resolving this war into a new battleground of $348-$353. Yes, $324.50 is now the key number, not $330. The ESF will fight gold and the dollar all the way losing the daily battles and the war entirely. Certainly for those that only see the high, low and close of gold, it looks like an anti gold/pro dollar interest won but they did not. They didn't as they made their effect but instantly after their manipulative presence ended gold strengthen and the dollar weakened.

I still firmly feel that we are very close (tomorrow, or a few days maybe) to a breakout of the handle of the three/four year teacup and a technical explosion to high gold prices.

Black BladeNatural Gas Futures Rally On Cold, Supply Issues #9124512/10/02; 22:46:15


HOUSTON, Dec 10, 2002 (ODJ via COMTEX) -- (Dow Jones)--A market skittish about supply concerns, with ranks thinned by creditors' red flags, Tuesday sent the New York Mercantile Exchange's January natural gas futures contract into the $4.60s per million British thermal units, finishing at 18-month highs. "This market caught a lot of people short (selling a position not owned in the hope of buying it later at a lower price)," a trader in Houston said. "They weren't expecting to see cold weather. Obviously, it was a surprise." An array of back-of-the-market fundamentals - a cold weather forecast for late December by Salomon Smith Barney meteorologist Jon Davis, an Energy Information Administration short-term outlook that predicts production shortfalls and concerns about huge gas storage withdrawals later in the week - boosted the buying.

Black Blade: It's going to get a lot worse. Nearly every new power plant is gas fired and virtually all new ones will be gas fired too. The problem is that rig counts are at very low levels and the pipeline capacity does not exist. The next perfect storm in energy is on the horizon and with it a crushing economic disaster.

Black BladeAsian Markets Ain't Buying It#9124612/10/02; 23:29:31

Asian markets are not following Wall Street's lead tonight. Asian market indices are trending lower.

- Black Blade

Black BladeVenezuelans Rush to Banks as Strike Cuts Oil Output #9124712/11/02; 01:24:04


CARACAS, Venezuela (Reuters) - Venezuelans rushed to withdraw money from banks on Tuesday fearing food and gasoline shortages as a nine-day-old strike by the opposition cut the country's oil output to less than a third of normal.

Black Blade: Now we see a run on the banks. Hmmm…

BelgianRe :#9124812/11/02; 01:33:07

@ a nation of one : with your posting # 91226 about your understanding of "human nature"....I'm convinced y're ready for a nice future. Very wise post Sir !

@ PA : UK in EMU ? Forget the speculations about particular timings. Things can happen overnight or never. Look what's happening with the campaign around Tony's wife !!! Always expect the, very possible, un-expected 180° turns.

@ Ari : Your posting # 91222 is BRILLIANT ! But you were holding your breath and thought it wise not going much further into the matter. Very wise indeed, but a pity, according to my vho.
My I repeat another one of your excellent syntaxes in capitals : THERE IS NO DEPRECIATION SHEDULE FOR GOLD !!!
Gold the "portable wealth-property" ! Physical Gold the ever lasting "convertibility-power".

Black BladeBullion booms as gold industry gets a timely makeover#9124912/11/02; 02:00:29


So why have so many gold bears suddenly become bulls? The most obvious reason is the myriad external factors, including sluggish global economic recovery, stock market weakness, a slide in the dollar, mounting political tension in a number of trouble spots, including the threat of war with Iraq, and concern over corporate governance at US firms such as Enron. Brenton Saunders, a precious metals analyst at Deutsche Bank in Johannesburg, says: "I think it's a projection of the risk aversion and general lack of direction of global equity markets. And I think until we've got some relative sense of direction of global economics, specifically the US equity markets, gold is going to be a reasonable place to be." Speculators in New York are understood to be steadily building large long positions, not simply because of the threat of war with Iraq but also because of the arrival of John Snow as US Treasury Secretary. As chairman of rail and transport group CSX, he is seen as an industry man, rather than a Wall Street one. That has led to speculation he would be happy to see a slide in the dollar, which would boost gold further. Others attribute the bulk of the rally to the structure of the industry. In an environment of falling and volatile prices, there has in recent years been little incentive to meet growing demand through increased production. Indeed, South African output has fallen below 400 tonnes a year for the first time since 1953. As any economics textbook will tell you, rising demand and falling supply equals higher prices. Also, consolidation among producers is creating greater supplyside discipline. Norman says: "Miners are less inclined now to kill a price rally by selling into it.

Black Blade: This article appeared yesterday in "This Is London" and the "Evening Standard". It hits all the points we have made concerning Gold and makes a compelling case for Gold as an insurance vehicle and investment class.

Black BladeDollar Falls as Report May Show Record Current Account Deficit#9125012/11/02; 02:16:19


London, Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell against the yen on expectations a report tomorrow will show the U.S. current- account deficit widened to a record. The current-account deficit, which includes trade and investment and is a measure of the amount of money leaving the U.S., probably widened to $132 billion in the third quarter from $130 billion, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. ``If flows into the U.S. start to slow down, that's a problem for the dollar,'' said Ian Stannard, a currency analyst at BNP Paribas. The dollar was also hurt by concern John Snow, nominated by President George W. Bush to be the next Treasury secretary, may let the U.S. currency weaken to boost demand for U.S. exports. The U.S. currency is up 3.2 percent against the yen in the last month. The National Association of Manufacturers has called for a weakening of the currency, saying dollar strength hurts U.S. competitiveness on the world markets.

Black Blade: There's no choice, the US dollar must be weakened. As I heard a commenter say today: "It's a choice between Carter and Hoover". It's a matter of the "lesser of the two evils".

TopazThe "other" Freegold @ silvercollector.#9125112/11/02; 03:34:09

You'll be hard pressed to beat 'em silver, why not JOIN 'em.

The other Day you quizzed sector? on the merits of borrowing to purchase Gold. If I may butt in on this point - Given the possibility of a substantial market move (15-20 bucks up OR down) in the near future (say 6 mth's) would it not be prudent to capture this move(s) in $ and effectively fund your Physical Gold purchase for FREE? (income Taxes not withstanding)
The Charts above, all (expand the 30Yr T/Bond to Weekly) show triple Bottoms precluding substantial upmoves and I believe this pattern will continue with PaperGold (previously @ 312, then 317) however if the $ strengthens we may go the other way!
Let's (virtually) borrow $10K....Ring Marie and secure $5K of generic Bullion.
$2.5K then goes on way out-of-the-money Puts on an unhedged Miner, likewise $2.5K on similar Calls, both with a 6Mth timeline.
If our assumption proves correct, our Puts OR Calls will increase in value 4+ fold and Voila! 5k Freegold.

The ONLY killer is a static Gold price - but even then, we DO have possession of 15odd Oz's Gold.

Not investment advise.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Gold in your own hands. No VAT. An international partnership that's right for you.#9125212/11/02; 03:35:59

You are world wise and well connected,
taking actions worthy of your vision beyond the horizon.

This information page was made for our clients and friends just like you.

USAGOLD - Centennial Precious Metals has recently fulfilled gold orders for clients in

Centennial serviceNew Zealand
the Netherlands
Great Britain
of course,
the United States.

We are pleased to pass along what our European clientele have been telling us -- that our pricing is superior to most of their banks and brokerage firms. We share your view that actions speak louder than words, therefore we support and encourage delivery of the gold while our competitors primarily promote certificate programs. Go figure. That equation solves itself. With USAGOLD - Centennial you'll get a good price and GET what you pay for!

BoilermakerThe End Game#9125312/11/02; 04:13:02

Been thinking about what is likely to happen to gold producers when gold gets loose. Here's one scenario:

- The US (and probably other govt's) will declare gold a strategic material.
- Gold miners in the US will be compelled to sell all their gold to the Govt.
- A nominal rate of return will be established for each mine that provides an adequate return much like a regulated utility, ie., high cost mines would get more for their product.
- There may already be such an arrangement with Barrick. The US holds an option on their mines which may be where we get "deep storage" gold.
- Gold will again be the means for nations to balance their trade books and it will be valued at whatever price it takes to accomplish this.
- The avg. mine will get maybe $400/oz while the international clearing value will be 10x or more.
- Gold share owners will get screwed when their bonanza at 100x earnings turns into a utility stock at 12x earnings.

Does this make sense?


NEMO me impune lacessitPolarization?#9125412/11/02; 04:28:04



Black BladeSpot Getting Frisky or Kitco Glitch?#9125512/11/02; 05:28:12

Spike on Kitco shows Gold up $2.70 an ounce.
Black BladeGlitch#9125612/11/02; 05:43:14

Yep, a glitch - all better now. Meanwhile ABC consumer confidence poll took a hit again. It appears that tapped out consumers are not feeling too good about spending with just over a third saying now is a good time to spend.

- Black Blade

Maverick1test#9125712/11/02; 05:52:09

Nice to be here
BoilermakerRefi and Housing Bubble#9125812/11/02; 05:59:36

"NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. homeowners filed fewer applications to refinance their mortgages last week, sending refinance request volume lower for a third straight week, a mortgage industry trade group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association of America said its measure of refinancing demand, after adjusting for seasonally factors, fell 8.6 percent in the Dec. 6 week to 3,793. The index is at its lowest since a reading of 3,512.4 for the week of July 19.

Meanwhile, the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly seasonally adjusted gauge of mortgage requests to buy a home slipped 7.2 percent last week to 358.8.

Last week's declines in purchase and refinancing mortgage requests drove the group's seasonally adjusted mortgage market index, a barometer of the U.S. housing market, down 8.1 percent to 862.7, its lowest reading since mid-July."

No comment needed

RobotGuy'U.S. Warns of Nuclear Retaliation'#9125912/11/02; 07:32:16


(CBS) The Bush administration will tell Congress Wednesday that it is the policy of the United States to use "overwhelming force," including nuclear weapons, if chemical or biological weapons are used against America or its forces.


RobotGuy - - - O.K., here's where I'm confused. You're willing to help these poor Iraqi's and try to protect them from their horrible leader, but you're ready to blow them all to hell if American soldiers are attacked by chemical weapons from their leader? Who's the terrorist?

TrapperSir RobotGuy#9126012/11/02; 07:40:03

To answer your question " who is the terrorist ". Pretty simple really.... The guy who uses WMD first. Live small.

a nation of oneRe: #9126112/11/02; 08:09:01

Quote: "...It is the policy of the United States to use "overwhelming force," including nuclear weapons, if chemical or biological weapons are used against America or its forces.

--Gee. If anybody threatened me with that, I'd be terrified.

makcumkaWho is to prove?#9126212/11/02; 08:10:11

Here's one:

Since when has it been established that in a free society the burden of proof for a crime committed rests on the accused?

I have been pondering this one for a while. Iraq has to prove they are innocent, or be blown away.

Rhetorical question.

sectorAsia's Exports Boom As America Reaps The Rotten Fruits Of Its Strong Dollar Policy#9126312/11/02; 08:15:09

International Perspective, by Marshall Auerback

December 10, 2002
"It's hard for me to live in a world where you can't tell the truth because somebody will stick a javelin in your heart for doing it." – Former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill

Over the long run, trends in real exchange rates are a function of current account equilibria and productivity differentials. The U.S. is the closest of all countries in the world to the global technological frontier today. Even with its vast increases in standard of living, emerging Asia, including China, India, etc., remains still at some distance, but has the rapid human capital deepening to advance on this frontier at a fast pace. On a trend basis, Asian productivity will continue to outstrip that of America, which economic theory suggests should also produce a trend of appreciating currencies against the dollar.

Despite the logic behind the theory, it is a fact that the dollar has remained strong on a trade-weighted basis over the past several years, particularly against these very same emerging economies. It is said that the impending change in President Bush's economics team following on from last Friday's resignations of Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill and chief economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey will presage a change to a weak dollar policy, thereby eliminating this anomaly. But those who expect an improvement in the US external imbalance should the dollar weaken might find their hopes cruelly dashed in light of the recent strong performance of Asia's export sector, whose competitive position has improved massively at the expense of the US as a consequence of their respective currency depreciations against the dollar in 1997/98. The markets had hitherto assumed that trade improvements in ASEAN and Northeast Asia would come at the expense of Japan or Europe. In the case of Japan, this has not been happening because by way of regional production hierarchies, all of Asia has become a huge export platform to the rest of the world. And with its protectionist inclinations, Europe has generally absorbed less of its share of the ongoing shift in global current accounts as well.

Releasing gold may not help the US but we cannot begin to "recover" unless it's freed.
@ Boilermaker -- Why nationalization of US gold mines won't hurt foreign gold producers.

You may be right about the Fed "acquiring" gold mines but gold is a world commodity and its price will be ultimately be set on open markets at its choke point.

Such a two-tier gold pricing mechanism invites smuggling and pilferage. Imagine working at a mine where gold is bought by the government at $400 but sells in Shanghai at $3,000 per ounce. It would be a security nightmare.

There would be severe damage to the moral fabric of the country as well.

The shares of unhedged non-US producers are immune to US government seizure efforts and would rise even higher than expected on the news of US government mine grabs.

RobotGuyHowdy Trapper!#9126412/11/02; 08:16:49

To be perfectly honest I'm getting tired of living small, I wanna live big again!! Bring back 1997 :)

I program industrial robots,.. things are quite slow right now. I haven't had a contract in weeks. Instead of getting out of debt like Black Blade advises, I'm falling deeper every day. I might even have to start looking for a JOB!!! DEAR HEAVENS!! Either that or I'll sell everything, head south to Arizona with a backpack, metal detector, and gold pan and search for lost treasures!

Ever notice how; ain't, is slang, yet we still make the effort to add the apostrophe!



sector A famous artist, and derivatives simply, though perhaps,crudely explained#9126512/11/02; 08:27:49

(pandagold)Dec 11, 10:10 [Another nearby board]

A famous artist, and derivatives simply, though perhaps,crudely explained
(pandagold)Dec 11, 10:10

It is said that Picasso paid for everything by cheque, once he was famous. This was a fortuitous bonus, for him, as he found that the recipients never presented the cheques when they realised they were worth more as a 'collectors' item, and their value increased with age.

You can imagine these cheques bearing that famous signature were traded between collectors many times without any effect on Picasso's bank account.

You can also see, that if he had been so inclined, he could have issued far more cheques than his networth would support.

This could go on indefinitely with the only problem for him being if the holders of his cheques decided, particularly en masse, to present them to the bank.

With gold futures (or any futures for that matter) , theoretically, you can write as many contracts as you wish - many, many more times than the actual amount of gold available, just so long as no one wants delivery.

As most participants, these days, in the futures markets are speculators that NEVER intend to take delivery, you can see that this works out quite well.

Gold IS money, and that is certainly no mere idle cliché. It is understood more in macro, rather than micro economics, and I am not talking in pure academic terms here, but in the 'real' world.

This is why the POG is kept in such tight control - it is so interrelated with so many national, and international commercial transactions, particularly that vital energy source - oil. The truly BIG players do not trust, nor accept fiat money on 'face value'. Fiat is for we minions.

The trading of actual gold is like a cat and mouse game. Sellers and buyers will buy through 'third' parties, and sell, or buy' via different national exchanges to try to hide the real origin of their activities. This is why I would never take much notice of any media release that said this, ot that, country was buying or selling gold.

The powers that watch (monitor) the gold market are far more efficient, and astute, than any that carry out surveillance of Iraq, or other so called 'demonic' nations harbouring WOMD.

To attack the gold derivative market and cause it severe problems in line with how a number of writers on the subject have seen this 'time bomb', would take a massive uptake in actual gold - and I mean a sustained massive uptake.

It would have to be done in a way that appeared, at least on the surface, natural, and not in a way that would be seen as contrived as an attack on TPTB who control it (and just about everything else), and one that would give them (TPTB) an excuse, to organise the military powers under its control to rain death upon them - or, at least, the threat of it.

Now, I wonder how, and where, that could be done? Just being in the position, and having also a threat of it, could be enough. I can see the possible (probable?) early stages of it. Can you?

What a marvelous analogy!

Maverick1(No Subject)#9126612/11/02; 08:37:09

sourdoughGod Bless America ( getting difficult to distinquish between north and south)#9126712/11/02; 09:06:57

"Globalization" was supposed to "export" American values to the third world. In reality, it looks more and more, like the opposite is happening!
My view, one should be considering addressing your leader not as The President, but more aptly, El Presidente! Or perhaps "CHAIRMAN".
What is happening to democracy? Did EL Presidente, grow up too close to the U.S. southern border.
Geez, I hope we can stop this type of democracy at the northern one!

P.S. Canada is preparing to decriminalize pot.
Mounties say it is 5 billion dollar business in B.C.
Most is exported to U.S.
Does this show up in balance of trade deficit?
Can`t sell you packaged trees but no problem selling packaged weeds.

BoilermakerBarrick Gold#9126812/11/02; 09:15:56

Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX / NYSE)
Credit Suisse First Boston
Taking down our 2003 estimate and price target down to $17 per share. We now expect ABX to earn $0.16 next year, after reviewing our models and speaking with the company. The company is facing higher operating and non-cash costs at two of its main projects. Maintain Outperform rating.

Comment; Barrick now trading at 245x trailing earnings of $.06/share. Earnings to hit $.16 next year. Wowsers! Looks like a sure bet to me. Credit Suisse didn't mention their forecast of the 2003 gold price.

goldenboyWhen the US is the Last One Who Wants To Play Anymore#9126912/11/02; 09:56:47

When there is nothing to be made from contango, when there is nothing to be made from gold carry-trade, who will help the ESF carry out their mission?
An infinite amount of paper gold is not enough to carry out their objective; it must be supported by enough new physical gold, whether borrowed or sold, to tip the supply/demand balance downward or keep it on an even keel.
In addition to the ongoing requirement to supply the production gap, the ESF must worry about new investor demand for physical gold plus the need for BB`s and producers to close borrowed positions in gold.
Where will they get it? If you are a producer, you could deliver into it, say to a bullion bank who could then return it to a central bank. But that means that quantity of gold is removed from this years` production side of the supply/demand gap, which means other things being equal, the price must go up!
If you are a bullion bank with declining credit ratings, you may wish to cover your positions and return the gold to the central bank that lent it. But wait a minute! It has been sold to a manufacturer and you must buy it in the open market. By buying the gold in the open market, the balance of your gold trades go further underwater! If you are JPM, how do you get out of a portion of your short position without completely sinking the rest of the is all or nothing. If gold derivatives were spread equally over many banks, then there might already be a rush to the lifeboats to exit positions first, but this is not the case. Now we know why most of the derivatves are in one place!
So, if you are a BB, you probably want to talk the central bank who lent you the gold into selling it to you so you don`t ruin the rest of your position. But wait! At this point the previous loan becomes a sale, the gold comes off the central banks` books and the world wakes up!
Therefore the option becomes rolling over the loan at very advantageous rates, exiting the whole position, or perhaps entering into some kind of a deferred sale arrangement with the central bank, so that the price is fixed at the current rate, but payment and sale are deferred so that nither has to declare.
Now, throw into this mix, the comments of the Federal Reserve: "we could buy foreign bonds, securities,... gold mines...."
As all the central banks are already awash in U.S. dollars, how comfortable are you with the thought that the US through the ESF or whatever, is going to print a lot more paper to exchange for your bonds (as you pay higher interest rates than the US) or perhaps exchange their paper for all the gold mines on the planet? Afterall, you could offer five times the current capitalization of all the gold companies and only run the presses long enough to print up a few hundred billion dollars.
At this point, as a central banker, wouldn`t you feel better getting your lent gold back? After all, where is it going to come from if you are the last one to do so?
Are you going to sleep well at night, knowing the U.S. is actively considering buying foreign bonds and gold mines?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.We're quickly nearing Christmas, Gentlemen! Easy access to Omega gifts at discount prices!#9127012/11/02; 09:58:07

This Year Give the Gift of Gold

omegaOmega Necklaces & Accessories

Gold Omega Necklaces are currently a very hot fashion item!

Diamond Slides to accessorize your favorite Omega necklace.

Bangle Bracelets in plain style or with beautiful diamond cut engraving!

When you call, Marie can also tell you about items featuring birthstones along with many other great gift ideas!1-800-869-5115 ext.106

Purchase from USAGOLD by December 16th for Christmas delivery and avoid those high jewelry store markups and sales taxes!


Gold Hill2002 Silver Eagles#9127112/11/02; 10:04:04

According to "Coin World" Dec16 issue the U.S. Mint is sitting on 1.5 million 2002 Silver Eagles as of Nov25.
Authorized dealers will have to combine 2002's with any order of 2003's until the 2002's are gone. Look for the premium's on 2002's to drop sharply. I'll love buying the eagles at the same spot plus price as generic one ounce rounds!!! I'm sure our host will have more info!!!

goldenboySector: How Much is a Massive Uptake of Gold#9127212/11/02; 10:16:26

Do you have any idea as to how much physical offtake would constitute enough to break through the paper ceiling of $330?
Clearly, if everyone keeps playing the paper purchase game, this is free money to the controllers. They see where all the bets are, then sell paper and physical enough to depress the price and collect the bets.
In the meantime they can play great games with the shares and their leverage up or down to a gold price direction they control.
Physical purchase.....they cannot control that!

Buongiorno!US foreign Policy#9127312/11/02; 10:16:36

Buongiorno! Buongiorno!

A good day to you all! I have been lurking near this wellspring of knowledge, located at the crossroads of history, for awhile. Not being able to improve on things, I have been silent so far....

However, I notice some hand-wringing over Middle-East policy and would like to agree that it is indeed a tough question. Especially regarding the use of nuclear weapons. But, those who mean us harm must realize what they get into--and a clear notification of intent is not the same as actual use. (Of any weapon or policy.)

I believe that Desert Storm delayed Saddam's time table for about ten years. What exactly to do now is always a cloudy issue. However, please consider the clear message the free world sent to Hitler each time when he marched unopposed into the Rhineland, annexed Austria, occupied the Sudentenland and attacked Poland and France. We had pure hell rooting him out later.

What message did we send Japan when she invaded China and we did nothing....until years later we saw their warplanes above Pearl Harbor? We had pure hell rooting them out of the Pacific later on.

What about Russian missiles in Cuba? Are we not now glad they are gone? (I did a lot of hand-wringing over that one, myself!)

We must be sure that those who wish us harm understand that it may not be as easy as they think. I hear they welcome death. Perhaps we should accommodate some of them.

America is generous in peace, patient in negotiations, and downright fierce in war. Let us never mix these priorities!

At the end of the day, we are all responsible for ourselves and our families. We should heed Sir Black Blade and prepare accordingly.(Gold can be a great comfort in times like these.)


WaveriderU.S. Economy: Household Debt Load May Pose Threat to Spending#9127412/11/02; 10:59:03

"Consumers carried $3.7 trillion in credit card, mortgage and other household debt in the early 1990s, according to Fed figures. That compares with a total of $8.2 trillion in the third quarter of this year, up from $7.4 trillion the same period a year ago. ``This is like a land mine,'' said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York, the securities unit of First Tennessee National Corp. The bank is the fourth-largest underwriter of debt for agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. ``It's sitting out there. It hasn't blown up yet, but if interest rates go up, the more likely the land mine will explode.''

Debt-weary consumers may impede a U.S. recovery should more households tighten spending to service debt, economists say. U.S. household borrowing has surpassed $8 trillion and is rising at the fastest rate in almost 13 years. Personal bankruptcies are at an all-time high and mortgage foreclosures have reached a 30-year peak. Consumers' ability to keep making monthly payments, even with historically low interest rates, rests on incomes, and some economists see a growing potential for trouble as unemployment climbs. The jobless rate rose to 6 percent in November from 5.6 percent at the beginning of the year."

Waverider: 8 "T" - not suprising given the amount of media bombardment to spend, spend, spend and the buy now, pay later mentality that seems to have permeated consumer consciousness. I think it's difficult for most sheeple to remain vigilant of the consequences of credit considering that it's become such a socially acceptable "norm".

BTW - I notice today that 1 month to 1 year Gold and Silver lease rates are exactly the same.

CoBra(too)Buona Notte - Bongiorno!#9127512/11/02; 10:59:12

... I personally find it obnoxius overkill when the only global superpower left is resorting to threats of nuclear responses.

Moronarchy at its best, nah, worst! - as well as an invitation for Russia/China and other nuclear powers to rebalance.

The peace dividend and concquering communis'm was really squandered in the last 10 plus years - what a pity! cb2

Sierra MadreHas anyone noticed, lately?#9127612/11/02; 11:03:32

Has anyone noticed the fact that the US is progressively isolating itself from favorable world opinion and support by other powers?

Big things come from little things, and complicated things are made up of many simple things. Sometimes one simple thing determines a host of other things, and because it is so simple, it is ignored or overlooked.

A leader must lead. A leading country must lead. A leader needs followers. A leader who cuts himself off from his followers, will soon no longer be a leader.

The obsession with Iraq is not impressing the rest of the world.

The US is on a fatal course as the superower.

The dollar will reflect the decline and fall, and gold will reflect the new order - and not the "New World Order" expected by the elites in the US.


Sierra MadreFortunate typing error!#9127712/11/02; 11:05:41

I typed "SUPEROWER" instead of "superpower" - but, come to think of it, "superower" is a very apt term to describe the US - have you seen the trade deficit numbers today?


goldfoolsector - Gold derivatives 101 Question(s)...probably asked a 1000 times#9127812/11/02; 11:31:59

What's to keep the bullion banks from simply defaulting on their massive short positions? Or in the event of war declaring force majeur? Is there any precedence (i.e. Tocom palladium 2000) and what would be the fallout or consequences?
RobotGuySourDough - - - Canada and POT#9127912/11/02; 11:47:30

I have seen this coming for quite some time, and to be quite frank, I'm surprised it didn't happen a lot sooner. If the United States government realizes what a huge profit Canada could generate by doing this, I'm sure they'll have something to say about it that may affect the Canadian government's final decision. The reality of the situation is that many many people enjoy smoking marijuana, and this could be a huge incentive to attract many many more tourists to Canada. Kinda like your local Amsterdam.
I do not disrespect my government for approaching this avenue as a means to generate more income in Canada, and I personally believe marijuana does help some people who suffer from certain medical ailments. It is about time we stop arresting these people for seeking what in some cases may be their only form of relief.

I know this isn't related to gold, but the impact on the Canadian economy could me much more profound than originally expected.

Feel free to delete this post, as I know it is not entirely within the subject matter of this forum.



Mr Greshamgoldenboy (12/11/02; 09:56:47MT - msg#: 91269)#9128012/11/02; 12:17:11

goldenboy: Many good points deftly delivered in your post.

"If gold derivatives were spread equally over many banks, then there might already be a rush to the lifeboats to exit positions first, but this is not the case. Now we know why most of the derivatives are in one place!"

Indeed, this IS an anomaly in the world of markets. To have aggregated all this risk in one body: that's the very opposite of laying it off over an entire market. What's it called -- the "Judas goat"?

The other, smaller, derivative players must be backstopped by some official promises/threats, or else they WOULD be attempting to salvage their future survival. JPM's "too big to fail" may have passed the Tipping Point, even though the statement "JPM IS the Fed" holds some water, too. Maybe the other player's incentive is the possibility that they may receive JPM's mantle as "the Fed's bank for their loyalty?"

goldenboyMr. Gresham: Interesting Suggestion About Complicity#9128112/11/02; 12:41:53

I guess that might explain second place holder (was it Citibank?) not closing, since somebody has to take over when JPM goes down. If the fed has promised a hold harmless attitude on the derivatives, would they have extended this to the smaller entities? At some point, would they not have to take over the entire risk profile of the trades?
If they could do this by guaranteeing the dollar value, that is only a part of the picture. It would help the ESF if a large part of the trades physical gold component was controlled by the ESF. For example, if the swap of West Point gold for Bundesbank gold which was sold into the market is true, then ESF could easily deal with the trade by not demanding its gold back. Of course, the Germans will someday want their gold back, at which time ESF will have to play musical chairs with somebody else~s gold, or risk delivering the coin-melt gold from West Point; or perhaps deliver ABX forwards that they may own directly to Germany.
PS- Thanks for the compliment.

sectorWhen Will They Stop?#9128212/11/02; 12:53:04

Will they have to cover?

@ Goldenboy:
"Do you have any idea as to how much physical offtake would constitute enough to break through the paper ceiling of $330?"
---There's no telling. Moreover, the "Ceiling" isn't $330. It seems to be 3.25 Dollar Index Value of Gold. The formula for the DIVG is: DIVG = PM Fix ÷ Major Currency Dollar Index [Found at the Fed's Foreign Exchange section website].

Date PM Fix D.I. DIVG
2-Dec-02 319.70 100.57 3.147
3-Dec-02 316.45 100.28 3.188
4-Dec-02 319.70 100.28 3.215
5-Dec-02 322.45 100.39 3.245
6-Dec-02 325.75 99.91 3.254
9-Dec-02 325.10 99.70 3.241
10-Dec-02323.10 99.86 3.247
Defaulting on the large gold short position is to be expected…a no-brainer. Or, as the Russian translation treats that phrase: "It is clear even to a hedgehog".

Gold is a world commodity and IF the COMEX defaults the world price of gold will rise anyway. There will be major problems getting gold so buy now.

Before the stampede.

Buongiorno!angst#9128312/11/02; 13:06:09

It has been some fifty-seven years, plus or minus, since the nuclear genie poped out of the bottle. During most of this time, we have all lived under nuclear threat, actual or implied. The results for Europe have been: that many years of peace, the longest perhaps since Rome ruled things.

It is hard, then, to understand why the very thought would bring out such strong feelings now. We must know that this threat has been with us all along. Perhaps such diplomatic discourse has been wisely muted in the past. We may have a problem of communication with Saddam--and that may be why this nuclear option was made in a regretably public forum.

That said, perhaps we may all profit by seeing to the things we control--politicians and diplomats not being in that group. How about we purchase some gold coins and give them to a loved one for Christmas?

Buon Natale!

goldenboySector#9128412/11/02; 13:19:51

So, are you saying that 3.25 times the DIVG equals the line in the sand they defend the next day?
Gandalf the WhiteWELCOME Sir Maverick #1`#9128512/11/02; 13:29:04

Maverick1 (12/11/02; 05:52:09MT - msg#: 91257)
Nice to be here
AND now not a STRANGER be !

steady a lil music for the upcoming weeks#9128612/11/02; 13:39:26

got gold?
BoilermakerBuongiorno! #9128712/11/02; 13:57:30

Welcome Sir!

You offer some good historical perspective on the forces of good and evil. I tend to think that Saddam and Osama are more evil than George. I'm rooting for George in this matter but I'm giving him an "F" for money matters.

BTW my six kids and 3 grands will have their gold and silver Christmas.


Black BladePoll: Confidence takes a big hit #9128812/11/02; 14:00:13

Consumer confidence falls as Americans reluctant to spend money in a shaky economic environment.


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - U.S. consumer confidence took a steep fall last week as most Americans expressed a reluctance to spend cash in an uncertain economic environment, even as the holiday shopping season reached full throttle, according to an ABC/Money magazine survey. The ABC News/Money magazine Consumer Comfort Index, based on public views of current economic conditions, fell 5 points to -22 on its scale of +100 to -100. This is the third drop of five or more points in 2002, the third most in 17 years of polling. There were four such declines in 1990 and six in 2001. A drop this big has happened only 19 times in 900 weeks of continuous polling.

Black Blade: Just wait until rising energy costs hit home and the holiday hangover sets in as bills start to arrive.

BoilermakerMarket Closes#9128912/11/02; 14:10:23

I thought the DJI looked a bit synthetic today as the bad news kept coming. Trying to create the yearend rally? I never cease to view in awe the incredible dance that supports this market.
The HUI did very nicely for a change. More believers than traders?

Black BladeVenezuela crisis deepens#9129012/11/02; 14:19:54

Venezuelans have been trying to withdraw their cash


Oil production in Venezuela has plummeted to a quarter of its normal levels as an open-ended general strike wears down the world's fifth-biggest producer. People queued at banks to withdraw cash, or were panic-buying at petrol stations and supermarkets, as the strike continued into its ninth day on Tuesday. The United States has issued a travel warning to its citizens and allowed non-essential Embassy staff to leave the country, citing the "deteriorating political and security situation". The opposition Democratic Coordinating Board said the strike would continue "ever stronger and fearless". "It looks like a cold civil war in which each side is sitting in its trenches, but the situation could explode at any moment and turn into a real civil war," one political analyst, Alfredo Keller, told the French news agency AFP.

Black Blade: Looks "grim". These certainly are "Interesting Times".

Black BladeChina's booming economy drives world oil demand #9129112/11/02; 14:39:26;jsessionid=IBH3NDFAWFWJQCRBAE0CFEY?type=businessnews&StoryID=1887865


VIENNA (Reuters) - China, Asia's fastest expanding economy, will spearhead growth in oil demand this year, soaking up 80 percent of the global increase in consumption, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday. Daily demand for oil in China is expected to rise by 260,000 barrels this year to 5.14 million barrels per day, the IEA, adviser on energy policy to 26 industrialised nations, said in its latest monthly report. Global oil demand is expected to rise by 300,000 bpd, according to IEA estimates. "The Chinese oil market is growing fast," the IEA said. China became a net oil importer in 1996 and is the third largest consumer after the United States and Japan, although a decade of economic stagnation has led to a steady contraction in Japanese demand, which the IEA forecast this year at 5.26 million bpd. Energy thinktank the Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre in Tokyo predicted earlier this year that Chinese oil demand would rise at a yearly rate of 4.3 percent and to overtake Japan as the world's second biggest consumer in 2007.

Black Blade: As supply gets tighter and demand increases from emerging nations demanding their "fair share", it is no wonder then that the west must go to war for oil. Without oil there is no economy.

Pizz(No Subject)#9129212/11/02; 14:46:45


The stock markets are so thin the prop jobs stick out like sore thumbs. Sinclair over at Financial can pick them out by the minute as to start and stops - and he's been posting them - check out his commentaries over there -


You track the dollar index to gold (and thanks for the posts). Way too close a corrolation to specific numbers as you state. Any thoughts why a dollar index (that floats) should equate out to what appears to be a stike price? Short positions and deriviatives have averages and strikes that are fixed - if you get my drift. My first thought is that interest rate derivatives and the short gold derivatives (or short gold) may be linked up in some real sofisticated derivatives that no one has linked together yet.

Thoughts??? anyone???


Black BladeArgentina Mobilizes Against Government, Revolution Awaits#9129312/11/02; 15:03:51


Different social organizations from all over the country call for a national march to Buenos Aires to commemorate the first anniversary of the popular rebellion that toppled former President De la Rua on December 20th 2001. Under the slogan "Everybody out!", demonstrators will demand the resignation of current national government, bread for the victims of famine, and jobs for the unemployed. The march will start on December 16th with five groups of demonstrators who will travel Buenos Aires from the provinces in the northwest, northeast, west, and south of the country. They plan to converge in Plaza de Mayo - political center of Buenos Aires - on the 20th. Amid adherents are left-wing parties, organizations of unemployed workers, and many other social movements. They will march together gathering people on the road to the capital, holding demonstrations in the main cities of the country. Organizers expect another popular rebellion like its precedent, one year ago.

Black Blade: South America is a basket case. It's too bad as I loved to travel there. Argentina's economic woes have spread like wildfire and it will get much worse. These problems will work north and end up on our doorstep eventually. In fact the Venezuela crisis is already having an impact with higher oil prices. Now think of how much better off are those who held precious metals in their portfolios while the local currency crashed and banks closed to those desperately seeking to retrieve their life savings.

Black BladeRe: Pizz#9129412/11/02; 15:10:08

I haven't been following Sinclair, but what I have noticed is that there are huge block trades that have been spiking the market at times. These are not generally small investors. After a spike there may be some day trading types and others who get sucked along for the ride. But my opinion is that it is institutional money driving the equities markets. We see something similar with Gold trading as well. Curiously these markets don't trade smoothly on news or some surprising external event, but appear out of the blue and then trade almost disappears except for small traders - quite unlike most trading on other commodities. Very bizarre if you ask me. Maybe Sinclair has a point but I just can't pin it down for certain.

- Black Blade

Black BladeIraqi regime hiding scientists #9129512/11/02; 15:17:09


LONDON — Many of the Iraqi scientists U.N. arms inspectors want to interview have been spirited abroad or switched to innocuous posts and their places taken by unknown technicians, according to Iraqi exiles and Western officials. As the weapons inspectors led by Hans Blix prepare to summon the first of several hundred potential interview subjects, the Baghdad authorities have put some beyond reach and moved others to jobs with no direct involvement in Iraq's nuclear-, chemical- or biological-weapons programs.

Black Blade: "Interesting" shell game.

Anyway, off to the gym!

PizzBalck Blade#9129612/11/02; 15:34:13

Re: Instritutional Investing

I'd agree with you, and I used to share the same thoughts, but the only way that works in a downtrending market is if these guys are averaging down for the long term, and with more outflows than inflows, it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Most of the buying is coming in at critical levels and spiking the market up, without any good follow thru buy the public, so there is no ability to distribute the stock bought. We are also not seeing hardly any spike downs as these people get out - so I'm assuming they aren't.

If it is large speculators, hedgers, that have been sitting on cash, they would be waiting for the critical levels, sell the futures and get a good spike down at better levels and buy on the way down. But this seems to not be happening either.

I think this is what Sinclair is getting at. The only way it makes sense is that someone (FED, ESF, etc.) are buying at critical junctions to avoid a waterfall event.

I'm leaning towards his explanation. Smart money doesn't buy into this type of market in volume - no way to get out at a profit.

Sorry if this is a bit rambling, work at the CFO/controller level in this economy has been 16 hour days 6+ days a week - I've never seen it this bad in 30 years -
horrendous cash crunch - all over.


Black BladeRe: Pizz#9129712/11/02; 15:44:15

I am just heading out the door, but this is an interesting topic. I would agree with you. I was referring to the sharp upward spikes, and then there is a slow tailing off as if interest just dried up only later on to be followed by another spike(s). The buying interest from the small player just isn't there. The institutional money pops in and then quickly steps aside as if to say: "OK suckers, step right up". Only it looks as if the little guy is all played out. At least from the market trading charts and volume charts it appears that way. Maybe Sinclair is referring to this. As I said, I haven't kept up with Sinclair but it is interesting that others are taking notice. Even Puplava has talked of this in the past. Very strange trading behavior and it just doesn't pass the smell test.


- Black Blade

TownCrierFed adds more cash to banking system -- $12.75 billion in past two days#9129812/11/02; 15:59:08

With yesterday's add of $8.25 billion still on the system books, the Federal Reserve today in open market operations added another $4.5 billion to banking system reserves, this time via overnight RPs.

Like yesterday, there was no compelling need to do this as reflected in the market for overnight fed funds -- they we're trading again this morning at the FOMC target of 1.25 percent.

There is no limit to the amount of money the Fed can pump into the banking system, and likewise, there is no limit to the amount of money the government can attempt to pump into the economy through deficit spending.

"Waiter, we shall have the hyperinflation."
"Very well, sir. On this menu there really is no other option."


WaveriderVIP: DAILY GOLD MARKET REPORT #9129912/11/02; 16:27:29

For the latest geopolitical and economic update....
Sovereigntest message#9130012/11/02; 16:29:18

Greetings to all participants and contributors at this great forum on sound money AND sound thought.
Golden BearBlack Blade (12/11/02; msg#: 91294)#9130112/11/02; 16:31:19

"...Curiously these markets don't trade smoothly on news or some surprising external event, but appear out of the blue and then trade almost disappears except for small traders - quite unlike most trading on other commodities. Very bizarre if you ask me. Maybe Sinclair has a point but I just can't pin it down for certain...."
Hey BB, Pizz,

I found this thread on SqawkBox discussion forum on MSNBC about a week or 2 ago. The Guy is an Aussie trader, with a PhD in Economics who has I believe an Austrian bent to his own economic views. Anyway, he was explaining how the FED "gooses" the market short term, creating the strange intraday trading activity we are noticing...

Here is the thread: Cheers to you both.
General : GT, Got a question...

Message 1 of 9 in Discussion

From: kargoyle (Original Message) Sent: 11/28/2002 8:38 PM
After watching the Fed Repos hitting the market, I have become completely convinced that this occurs as you have probably noticed in my recent posts. I am very interested in the details as to how this works. Is there any reading material - books or articles - I may read on the Fed pump, how it flows to the brokerages?


Message 2 of 9 in Discussion

From: kargoyle Sent: 11/29/2002 7:37 AM
Found a few tidbits on my own.'

Message 3 of 9 in Discussion

From: GeoffreyT Sent: 11/29/2002 8:42 AM
Hiya Kargoyle.

I have been babbling and ranting about Fed repo "goosing" since I first bcame convinced about it in about mid-2001; the starting point for me was Moto's Monetary Signal.

Moto provided the broad framework; namely, that the Fed's repurchase activities have two aims;
to provide liduidity in order to keep the Fed Funds rate at its target level; and
to provide additional liquidity to broker-dealers with which to goose the market short-term.
Moto's framework concentrated primarily on movements in the index averages over periods of days. The anecdotal evidence appeared compelling, and as time went by I became convinced that his hypothesis was correct (because the outcomes postulated by the hypothesis, were consistent with what happened later).

My short-term trading involves paying attention to INTRAday moves (particularly those which occur with regularity), over timeframes of minutes. It was not clear a priori that Moto's analysis would help.

However Moto's framework armed me with a possible causative mechanism for the irregular market "moonshots" which often seemed to occur at 9 a.m. Chicago time in the futures pits. The buying always seemed to be coming from large buying from two or three houses who are known to be part of the "PPT".

So, I made sure I bought a news feed which covered the size and duration of Fed repurchase activity, and watched every day for the repo announcements.

Sure enough, give the market a large enough repo with a long enough term, and badda bing, badda BOOM... starting at 9 a.m. NY time or a minute or two thereafter. Even though the buying pressure usually wouldn't last into the close, it was possible to pocket between 4 and 7 S&P points with monotonous regularity by being long (or by closing shorts in advance of the pump, then waiting for the move to exhaust and re-establishing shorts).

I am not sure whether Moto still publishes his Monetary Signal; if he does, it is well worth a read.

Message 4 of 9 in Discussion

From: mollies Sent: 11/29/2002 8:46 AM
Dear Kargoyle, I'm not GT but I saved this from something he wrote in about April this year. Hope it helps and hope Geoff doesn't mind me re-posting it.

Regards, Stuart.

Learn about 'repo' and 'coupo' Fed Pumping, folks.<o:p></o:p>

Another day, another jam-job. Last night's action was the first 'up' day for the week, and also the first 'up' day which was not the direct result of a Federal Reserve bond repurchase ('repo') or coupon pass ('coupo').<o:p></o:p>

Repos and coupos are now a stock-standard method by which the Federal Reserve has attempted to collude with major Wall Street houses in an attempt to hold stock prices at their current levels. <o:p></o:p>

A repo involves the Fed buying back Treasury securities for a fixed, short-term period (usually less than a week, but sometimes as long as 28 days). Banks sell the Treasuries back to the Fed with an agreement to buy them back at a modest premium a few days later.<o:p></o:p>

A coupon pass is the same a a repo, but there is no repurchase requirement – that is, the Treasury securities are taken out of the system permanently.<o:p></o:p>

It is worth noting – regarding this little conspiracy theory – that major Wall Street houses now own the formerly independent market maker 'specialist' firms which control over 85% by value of all trade on the NYSE. <o:p></o:p>

The flooding of additional liquidity into the banking system – which is what a repo does short term, and a coupo does permanently – results in an increase in balance sheet liquidity in major banks, which is then piped straight into the market using the 15:1 margin capability of the 'specialist' firms.<o:p></o:p>

But enough of Fed shenanigans; it is only when the Fed pumps more than about US$5 billion into the system in any one day, that it matters to the market as far as a 'jam job' is concerned. (It is called a 'jam job' because major houses try and use the liquidity to 'jam' stocks higher, spurring short-covering and encouraging a rally so that they can liquidate stock inventory prior to the repayment date for the repurchase).<o:p></o:p>

Painting the Tape – the How and Why.<o:p></o:p>

But last night wasn't about Fed jam-jobs – it was abut the usual end-of-month tape painting jam job. That is, it was mutual fund managers who 'mark up' their key stock holdings in order to try and make performance (always measured on a month-close basis) look better.<o:p></o:p>

We are all aware – thanks to the year end chicanery in our local market on June 29th between 4 p.m. and 4:15 p.m.– of how much 'marking on close' there is at period-end, however the reality is significantly worse, since tape-painting doesn't just happen at the close.<o:p></o:p>

Lets' examine why I might think that a couple of major fund managers might be involved.<o:p></o:p>

Start with the fact that Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Novellus (NVLS) (and others) have both painted bearish outlooks this week; this should have put bearish weight on the Semiconductor stocks and the Chip Equipment stocks. And it did to an extent, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor index (SOX) now lower than it was when Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs took turns trying to pimp it up a couple of weeks ago. However there were significant exceptions within that sector, despite no direct company-related news.<o:p></o:p>

For example, KLA Tencor (KLAC) ignored the Novellus (NVLS) warning, as did Lam Research (LRCX).<o:p></o:p>

The biggest holder of these two stocks: Fidelity, with 8.8% of KLAC and 13% of LRCX.<o:p></o:p>

Other major semi stocks held for which inFidelity is the largest shareholder: <o:p></o:p>

Altera (ATLR) <o:p></o:p>
Analog Devices (ADI) <o:p></o:p>
Integrated Device Technology (IDTC) <o:p></o:p>
Micron Technology (MU) <o:p></o:p>
National Semiconductor (NSM) <o:p></o:p>
Xilinx (XLNX)<o:p></o:p>
The Infidels own between 7% to 15%ofeach of those stocks, as well as about 3½% of Intel (INTC). All of these stocks bucked Thursday's downmove, and performed pretty damned well on Friday too. It helped Intel's stock price to have a Penguin paid off to spruik the stock on Friday as well.<o:p></o:p>

The Janus fund group – named after the two-faced Roman god of gates and doorways – is also a big holder of technology stocks which just hppened to buck the downtrend this week – they own about 15% of each of Maxim (MXIM) and Linear Technology (LLTC)<o:p></o:p>

The market regulators know full well that this 'tape painting' goes on – as the ASX and ASIC knew full well that it goes on in our market as well. The ASX and ASIC knew about the tape painting in our market long before it became so utterly flagrant as to require a rule change in order to shore up public (and offshore investor) confidence in our market as something other than a playground for local money managers.<o:p></o:p>


Oops – I'm ranting again.<o:p></o:p>

So how can it make sense for a fund manager to chuck dough at stocks which are declining, just for the end of the month?<o:p></o:p>

Well, consider this. Say you're a fund which holds $5 billion worth of Cisco (as much a favourite of mine in the US market, as News Corporation is in our market), and you bought it at $25. As of Thursday night, you were underwater 36% on your holding – a lazy $1.8 billion buckeroos.<o:p></o:p>

Now, let's say that last night could be forecast with reasonable certainty to be a pretty illiquid night – low volume, particularly in the afternoon.<o:p></o:p>

As a fund manager whose numbers dictate compensation, you could dive into the market and pump CSCO up in the last hour by over 2% - particularly once momentum started working for you. You might spend $25 million to do this. However your portfolio holding of CSCO rises by $66 million, which reduces (a bit) the damage you have done to your clients' wealth – at least on paper.<o:p></o:p>

CSCO is not a good example, since last night its tape wasn't painted – but Altera certainly was, with ATR rising almost 3% on piffling volume which required far less than $25 mill to be spent to push it up. (hint: watch news Corporation in our market as we approach quarter-end – although thankfully most fund managers have started to wise up to NCP's lack of value, butthere is still one "True Believer" out there).<o:p></o:p>

Message 5 of 9 in Discussion

From: kargoyle Sent: 11/29/2002 8:56 AM
Thanks a bunch GT. You have been a great addition to this community. I personally wish to thank you for your invaluable insights and educating us as to some of the true mechanisms of this market. You may have saved many of us from our naive beliefs that this is a true open market system, and as a result, helped us save some of our own hard earned dollars. Again, thanks.

Recommend Message 6 of 9 in Discussion

From: rdb2201 Sent: 11/29/2002 10:47 AM
wow this is great, thanks to you all for this mindbending info. my questions now is, since greenstink just pumped a bunch of juice into the market yesterday with a 28 day time frame, how soon and how long does this affect the markets? do the market makers control it for the period before the repayment date? it seems as though this could have a major affect on any pullbacks. perhaps this is whats been happening recently whenever the indexes started to retrace.

another question is, how do the chartists and technical traders account for all of this ugly corruption in the system? it seems as though the indicators and charts are really not worth a hill of beans.

i guess the world really does work in ways which most people dont understand.

Recommend Message 7 of 9 in Discussion

From: kargoyle Sent: 11/29/2002 11:10 AM
Get a load of this quote from an article The Guardian just after 911:

The authorities are determined to avert a worldwide slump in share prices like the crashes of 1987 or 1929. Investment banks and their broking subsidiaries are to block short-selling by speculators and hedge funds by making it hard for them to obtain prices on favourable terms.

This is really beginning to make me extremely angry!

Here is the full text.,6903,552535,00.html

Recommend Message 8 of 9 in Discussion

From: kargoyle Sent: 11/29/2002 11:21 AM
In addition, you know all this talk about waiting for the big "C" word-CAPITULATION? No wonder it never happened with crooks like these in the Fed an broker/banks.......

I would dearly love to shine light where it doesn't shine. They are cancerous polyps in the asshole of this coutry.

Recommend Message 9 of 9 in Discussion

From: GeoffreyT Sent: 11/29/2002 11:36 AM

There are several wrinkles to the "repo pump".

First, the money generally gets used the same day, starting either as soon as it arrives (at 10 a.m. NY time) or at 1 p.m.

Depending on the size of the repurchase, it will ALL be expended between 10 a.m. NY time and about 11 a.m.; if it is a decent sized repo, some may be held back for an afternoon jam.

Folks will also mention that on any given day there will be repos which EXPIRE - meaning that firms have to buy BACK their previous repurchases; in theory that means that liquidity will drain OUT of the system and the only important thing is the NETT.

That is flawed logic, because repurchase expiry (the buying BACK of repurchases which expire) can be left until near the close.

I will try and prepare a chart which shows the trick; all is required is to compare the repurchase amount and term with the move between 10:00 and 11:00 NY time. Then compare the extent of the afternoon "fade" to the volume of repo expiring that day.

I prepared that chart some time ago, but it is somewhere among the 1100 Excel files I have on my machine (and none of them have names which help me very much!!). The correlation is STAGGERING.

The reality is though, that repurchase money has no impact on the market longer than 2 sessions; it is a mechanism for pumping the market up in the very short term.

Consider what the bank who gets the repo has to do in order to make money from the effort: they have to accue profits equal to the gap between Fed Funds and their agreed repurchase rate (usually no more than 2 or 3 basis points - i.e., 0.02% to 0.03%). Bear in mind these are ANNUALISED figures - the actual required return for the period of the repo is MUCH lower (for a 5-day repo, it is 5/360ths of 0.02%...)

Consider a $5 bill, 5-day repo with a 2 basis point "spread": there is about $3 bill left over once liquidity requirements are satisfied. You need to make $5bil*0.0002*5/360, or $13,888.89 precisely.

PART of that $3 bill can be used with leverage - as margin on futures contracts, for example. Being VERY conservative, let's say that only $500 mill is used. That will buy $5 bill worth "control" in the futures - 20 thousand contracts.

That is almost a third of an entire day's trade in the S&P pit, so you had better spread it around a bit.... across different pits, and use the e-mini as well!!

Now, in order to make $13,888 on $500 mil of margins ($5 bill of control), you don't even need a net gain of ONE TICK per contract.

But if you're buying (across all pits) about a tenth of all volume, you're not going to be able to unwind that volume without making LOSSES in some markets; you are also likely to have to unwind the last chunk of the volume at a loss.

But overall, you only have to average ONE TICK per contract, on ONE TENTH of the repo funds, and your butt is covered for the entire repo term.

See why it helps? That is why it amazes me that the in-house trading operations at major banks do such an awful job!!

CoBra(too)@ Sector - re- JPM ...#9130212/11/02; 16:41:54

Thanks for taking up my query and you've offered the following:

"We don't know what the specific contract specifications stipulate so we can only guess that some counter parties are less creditworthy than others. Or, that JP Morgan Chase has already failed and the Fed is just hiding the sordid details.

The Fed and BIS IS feverishly pushing Derivatives netting legislation, which is a change to bankruptcy codes world-wide. Yesterday the BIS issued a survey response entitled "Insolvency Arrangements and Enforcement".

Lots of heat around the derivatives bankruptcy fire(s) these days."

I feel your take on derivatives, in particular the push for Netting Legislation, along with fighting any regulation by the FED speaks for itself.

To return to JPM, trading above 24, after reaching a low of 15 is somehow hilarious - and so may the rest of the bear market rally be judged. JPM is on trial for defrauding its credit insurers over Enron (offshore deals - Mahonia et al)deals, and stands to lose an additional Billion $. A billion here and a billion there ... and JPM - even with a C -should be technically K.O!

- After all the market cap. is a mere 48 billion today. Deducting their normal credit liabilities - and we know from past experience that may just be covered by their market cap., if at all - , and before going into their amazing derivative structure of, say 26 trillion, LTCM was just for starters.

As I recall the takeover offer from Deutsche Bank a mere two years back - admittedly, as an afterthought DB may have thought to go the whole way after finding out what kind of nuclear presents Bankers Trust had to offer - it was still astounding that Chase made a deal instead - in between two hours on the same day!

While it may be inconsequential to restate 1.700 tons of gold deposited at the West Point facility - as Treasury reserves to custodian and lastly deep storage gold - the attitude of 'hiding the truth' is for all to see.

... So, in the end JPM/Chase may be the executor, or better executioner of the ESF, otherwise it would have followed the way Enron and et al have paved the way to Nirvana.

Wow, do I believe it?

Wouldn't hold an ounce of gold - if I don't! cb2

PS- excuse excessive long sentences ....

SovereignRegarding the transparency of the financial markets#9130312/11/02; 16:55:58

No broker that I know of was able to answer the following:

When an S&P 500 futures contract is sold, is the commensurate amount of the basket of underlying S&P 500 stocks actually SOLD into the marketplace? OR what ends up getting bought/sold in such a transaction is just an electronic entry referred to as "the S&P 500 futures contract" (actually "unbacked" by the S&P 500 stocks) that's changing ownership in some Exchange's computer banks?

If the former be the case, is it somehow possible to get independent confirmation as to whether the 500 stocks have actually been sold into the marketplace?

Golden BearSovereign (msg#: 91303)#9130412/11/02; 17:03:08

Hey Sovereign,

the latter is correct. 1 S&P 500 futures contract is representative of a basket of stocks which make up the S&P 500 index. When these contracts are transacted, they are electronic entries in the exchanges computers, which are settled for cash. No shares are bought or sold during the transaction.

However, these contracts can be used together with buying or selling of shares to hedge risk. Many are transacting these contracts outright purely for speculation, rather than hedging.


SovereignRe S&P 500 (Golden Bear)#9130512/11/02; 17:27:32

Thanks for the clarification, Golden Bear.

How do you then explain the "explanation" of financial commentators--on Bloomberg in particular--that point to a rise in S&P futures (usually, right before the index actually goes up) as justification for a rise in the index itself? If there is no "mechanical" correlation, what is causing this improbable level of correspondence?

Mr GreshamGolden Bear, Pizz#9130612/11/02; 17:28:19

Thanks for the re-post that spells out some of the market manipulating in detail -- gave me the chance I needed to think through some of the flows. It doesn't really stick with me, though, so I need guys like these, and Moto, and Randy, to chime in every so often. Perhaps Randy here has gotten to some of that in previous years, or maybe he's just been mostly concerned with banking liquidity?

I think Pizz was asking how they unwind without losing the equivalent amounts (although the post addressed that, too). One thought that occurs to me is all the discretionary ("widows & orphans" & retirement & trust accounts) management the firms like JPM handle. I've seen some of them on peoples' statements, and they "buy the market" as individual stocks, on allocation directives from higher up in their firm.

OPM -- Other People's Money -- which they can throw at the market, and lose, gradually, as long as they lose it in synch with all other money-losing managers. Plausible fiduciary deniability. The firms can fade these client-money moves in their own accounts, and basically siphon off the clients' funds which they control, without directly looting the accounts. (And once more, I'm shocked -- shocked! -- to find such a practice going on among those so entrusted.)

Golden BearSovereign (msg#: 91305)#9130712/11/02; 17:44:04

Hey again Sovereign,

Many market participants, from single traders to institutions watch the futures for short term directional momentum and trade off of that momentum.

This is why the PPT will use futures to "goose" the market, knowing full well that others will be watching and mimicking in the indexes what the futures are doing. Also, many of the larger institutions and funds program trade - ie. mechanical trading systems that are triggered when the futures go up or down via a certain criteria, which then automatically triggers buy or sell signals for tranches of stocks.

Hope this helps...

The Invisible HandSaddam, Picasso, and the supremacy of law and gold#9130812/11/02; 17:55:12

According to the classical exposition by A.V. Dicey in "The law of the Constitution", the Rule of Law means the absolute supremacy or predominance of regular law as opposed to the influenceof arbitrary power, and excludes the existence of arbitrariness, of prerogative, or even of wide discretionary authority on the part of government. (quoted by Hayek, "The Road to Serfdom", chapter 6, footnote to its first paragraph).

Whereas a formal Rechtsstaat is a "government by laws and not by men" as John Adams proposed in January 1776 when writing his "Thoughts on Government", a material Rechtsstaat wields its powers according to the Rule of Law

The problem with the Rechtstaat is that it remains a State and is thus illegal. The 1776 Revolution broke indeed existing constitutional law. What's now the USA was part of Britain (or England) and its independence was thus illegal. It's only because the independence has been recognized by third states (and even by Britain or England), that the USA is now a sovereign state (as though sovereignty pertained to governments and not to individuals). The reason why the USA had been recognized is that it maintained the existing rules of criminal and civil law (which Hayek calls i9n Books I and II of "Law, Legislation and Liberty" the rules of just conduct) Murray Rothbard has however demonstrated in Chapter 2 of "Man, Economy and State" that it is the (contractual) social co-operation which gives rise to a society. This means that Hayek's rules of just conduct can, and indeed do, exist even without (or before) the state. This probably explains why they (will) continue to exist when the state is (will be) modified (in Iraq).

One of the rules of crimnal and civil procedural law, which exists independently from the state, is as, makcumka points out in msg#: 91262, that the plaintiff has to prove his case which if it is a criminal case means he has to prove the guilt of the defendant (accused).

Another of these rules is that when you write an "exchangeable instrument" (sorry, I'm not sure this is the correct word) like a cheque, there is a time-limit date before which the recipient has to present the cheque to the bank for cashing the cheque and after which the cheque becomes null and void. (I suppose it's 12 month or something after the date at which it has been issued.) This meant that Picasso (see sector's msg#: 91265) could always continue issuing issuing for his whole wealth after 12 months. Indeed after 12 months, each cheque expired and could no longer be cashed in.

Is there also a time-limit date on gold future contracts to convert the claim to physical gold? If the answer is yes, it seems to me that the short stampede for which we're all hoping will never happen and that our only salvation can be found in A/FOA's change of the world reserve currency into the gold-backed euro. I wonder whether if the answer is negative, the threat of the short stampede will not be forever with our opponents or "enemies".


SovereignGolden Bear#9130912/11/02; 18:00:11

Sure helps.

So those traders and institutions--who are supposed to know it all, and are thus entrusted with the fiduciary responsibility to wisely invest other people's money--are "investing" based on nothing more than blind, mechanical, conditioned responses: in other words, they have "buttons" (that the Fed and ESF push at will via the futures contracts)instead of brains with which to "invest".

So it seems that the whole (establishment) mutual/pension fund industry is just ONE giant S&P 500 index fund, after all!

Goodbye for now, Golden Bear, and all forum participants.

Golden BearMr Gresham (msg#: 91306)#9131012/11/02; 18:01:03

Hey Mr G.,

Your welcome. Here is another post from the same guy, talking about the losses the PPT take rigging the market, his posts are very informative... (Returning the complement - I think it was you - for pointing to the postings of mannfm11 on the bearchat forum on - his views are also very good.)

You're right about fleecing the accounts of their account holders, advise them to buy stocks on bogus bullish analysis, and offload their own stock (which they also use for short selling) onto the clients...


"...From: GeoffreyT
Sent: 12/4/2002 6:03 AM


The PPT doesn't car if it makes or loses money on any particular bout of market manipulation; there is plenty of payoff to be had by being first in line for any underwriting performed by the government.

THAT is the essence of the Working Group; that there are "swings and roundabouts" and that the government will FIND A WAY TO REIMBURSE ANY MARKET LOSSES.

It is no different to the nexus formed between Washington and Wall Street back when (in 1895) John Pierpont Morgan saved Grover Cleveland's administration by halting a run on the US Treasury. That ensured Morgan political "access"; ensured his banking cartel the rights to help found the Federal Reserve; and ensured JPMorgan "first bite" at ANY AND ALL government "cherries" ever since then.

That single act, over a century ago, plus the involvement of JP and his cabal in the founding of the Fed, together comprise the reason why JPM has "favoured status" with Treasury and the Fed...."

MalfleurSupply and Demand#9131112/11/02; 18:01:29

My experience suggests that there is a very, very substantial amount of bullion off-market which is also not taken into account when calculating the total amount of refined gold in existence.

Would other posters agree with this? If so, what is the relation of that substantial hidden supply, which when traded is traded in the utmost confidentiality - except to the Fed and other institutions with a like interest, to the argument that if the gold price on the LBM were not manipulated it would soar as a result of shortages caused by leasing etc.? Is it possible that if the amount of off-market gold, or a portion of it, were brought on to the market, the POG could actually be sent down?

R PowellSovereign // Golden Bear#9131212/11/02; 18:15:56

Hello Sovereign. Good question! The index numbers are trading right now on the Globex. If you click on the 24 hour quote sign at the top right of the forum page, you'll see that the Globex numbers are not the same as the market close numbers. But, I follow your question and have often wondered, what happens when stock prices, which supposedly are the composite from which the index number is formed, are falling while the future's index number is being bought (PPT)? If stock prices continue falling and the government continues to buy (support) the index number, wouldn't they diverge?
Golden Bear, do you know?

goldenboymalfleur: Hidden/Off Market Gold#9131312/11/02; 18:18:46

Even if there were substantial additional amounts of gold out there, the real question is what significance would that have? If it has always existed we see the effects in the current price. The holders are likely unwilling to part with or lease it at these prices.
I believe the only significance would be that at very much higher prices, then the percentage of leased gold (which is sold, but owed back to someone) that has to ultimatlely be bought back from existing holders is a better situation for the shorters than we would hope. IMHO however, this is looking for a reason to doubt the magnificent thing that is hopefully about to happen.

AndúrilMalfleur, the table has two sides#9131412/11/02; 18:23:09

Ask this instead:

"... what is the relation of that substantial hidden supply of DOLLARS, which when traded is traded in the utmost confidentiality ... Is it possible that if the amount of off-market DOLLARS, or a portion of it, were brought on to the market, the price of DOLLARS could actually be sent down?"

MalfleurHidden/Off-Market Gold#9131512/11/02; 18:35:58

Thanks both to Goldenboy and Andúril for your valuable and stimulating response. I suppose that what I am getting at is that the POG is determined on the LBM. Anyone wanting to depress the POG from time to time, if he has access to these unsuspectedly large supplies of "off-market' gold, can do so by selling (after re-hallmarking if necessary) a portion on the LBM and continue to frustrate the hopes of those who expect to see the POG rise substantially. Since I am at the foot of a very steep learning curve in these matters, I would welcome further comment.
R PowellWhat is money?#9131612/11/02; 18:39:11

Why, grain, of course

The following is the last paragraph from an article by Bill Gary, Commodity Information Systems, Inc. It's dated November 23, 2002.

"The Wall Street Journal reported this week that Daimler Chrysler was accepting grain in payment for new cars in Argentina. In other words, grain is becoming the currency of choice in South America. Is it possible that commodities are regaining their stature as a storehouse of wealth after 20 years?"

Rich: I wonder how many bushels of corn it takes for a new car? How are the ads written?
"For a limited time only, no corn down and no corn due until July 2003! Take no (0%) bushels interest or our 500 bushels corn back at delivery, but act now, no corn down days won't last beyond next years planting!"
I believe soybeans are necessary to buy a truck. Do you suppose precious metal would be accepted?

Golden BearR Powell (msg#: 91312)#9131712/11/02; 18:49:36

Hi Rich,

from my observations, when the "goosing" occurs, it is happening simultaneously - the banks and the brokers move in and work the futures, and the bellwether stocks in the market. By focusing on the big cap stocks like GE, MSFT etc, they make sure that everyone sees the support/resistance, and they all pile in to ride the momentum. This is why there is little divergence.

It also occurs even if the PPT are not goosing. When I'm watching the markets, and see for example the futures stop declining and find support, the $tick starts to rise almost immediately, showing that accumulation is occuring in the stocks indexes, and the reverse is also true.

I cannot recall seeing any noteworthy divergence between futures and the indexes - the arbitrageurs who are usually farely big players, will instantly exploit the momentary discrepancy, and sell one and buy the other on volume to bring them back into line...


Boxman.Market Watch headline, Black Blade, and CavanMan#9131812/11/02; 19:05:08

This is the first sentence.I didn't even bother to read the rest of the article, as this sentence, to me, summed up the intelligence of todays stock owners. Sad state of affairs.

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - Stocks ended higher Wednesday as investors shrugged off corporate warnings, job cuts and geopolitical worries, and the tech sector weathered a gloomy outlook for chips.

Black Blade: I made a phone call today, but was unable to find much information, other than the hourly workers were notified a couple of weeks ago that there would be no bonus for this year. Union talk immediately commenced. I bet the salaried get theirs. I have to go in this Friday, so I will scout at that time, and get back to you. Looks like CavanMan will have to be your source from now on. Nice having sources like him.

CavanMan: Yup, the double digit price concessions, I remember well. I would imagine that the clarion call these days is "don't lose any volume". I liked it better in the old days, when I was really a paid entertainer. Believe me, those three years will go fast enough, with some pain along the way, of course. Something tells me there will something in the future that you will find intriguing, challenging, and profitable (and that doesn't necessarily mean $'s) for you. Best of luck. Hey, you don't need luck, you have gold and knowledge, you are well armed my friend.

R PowellGolden Bear#9131912/11/02; 19:18:17

sectorLines in the Sand#9132012/11/02; 19:48:03

3.25 Dollar Index Value of Gold

Divide the PM Fix by the Major Currency Dollar Index [Found at the Fed's site] and you get the DIVG.