USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

Electronic reproduction sourced from
YGMQ & A .... From Deputy of Reserve Bank of India on Gold.....#772346/1/02; 00:35:03

RBI Committed To Creating Environment For Productive Use Of Gold’

Of late, gold is once again in the news with its prices turning volatile at the psychological level of $300 per troy oz in the international market and Rs 5,000 per 10 gms in the domestic market. India imports around 800 tonne of gold annually, but there is no formal regulator for its domestic and international trade. The Reserve Bank of India, however, is considered as the deemed regulator for the yellow metal, in so far as it being a part of the country's foreign exchange reserve. Talking to Sharad Mistry of The Financial Express, RBI deputy governor Dr YV Reddy clarified on various related questions. Excerpts.
How would you consider gold's share of just six per cent in the country's total reserves of $53 bn? Is this share of gold sufficient or needs to be increased given the relative vulnerability of forex through portfolio investments in the country's forex kitty?
The holding of gold or otherwise in forex reserves is country specific. Central banks in Europe have been traditionally holding large quantities of gold as part of their foreign exchange reserves. Consequent to the formation of the European Central Bank (ECB), many of them have resorted to sale of a part of their gold holdings, for a variety of reasons. Some of the Latin American countries also have reduced their gold holdings. Of course, there has been a tendency/policy shift towards unloading gold holdings, in general, though for a variety of reasons.

There have also been countries that have acquired gold reserves in recent years. Our gold holdings in absolute terms have been more or less constant but in percentage terms, they have come down as the total reserves have registered an impressive growth in recent times due to spurt in foreign currency reserves. Since every asset is vulnerable to market movements, it is not easy to establish vulnerability of forex and the relationship between vulnerability and gold holdings.

What is the ideal size of gold reserves for India -- in actual and in per centage terms to its reserves?
There is nothing like an ideal size of gold reserves for any country either in actual terms or in percentage terms to total reserves.

How is it that RBI has preferred to remain passive to the ongoing volatility in global bullion market, even when India is the world's largest consumer of the commodity? Also, what role is RBI expected to play in the development of a gold market and the bullion exchange?
The Reserve Bank of India's long term focus is on creating an environment conducive for more productive use of gold asset. RBI also closely monitors the global bullion markets. RBI has provided the necessary impetus for gold market reforms in India by helping in evolving what may be termed as the New Gold Policy.

As a central bank, RBI's interest in gold is due to the fact that gold has characteristics of currency. Traditionally, RBI has played an active part in evolution of both, gold policy and gold market.

What policy changes are likely to be made in the RBI Act to develop efficient gold futures market in the country? Why do the 13 entities (allowed by the RBI to import gold) shy away from conducting forward trades and develop such a market?
The RBI Act does not require any amendment for the development of an efficient gold futures market in the country. RBI has no formal compulsion for such a role either. A major change in the development of gold markets in India was the authorisation in July 1997 to commercial banks given by RBI to import gold for sale or loan to jewellers and exporters. Initially, 7 banks were selected for this purpose on the basis of certain specified criteria like minimum capital adequacy, profitability, risk management expertise and previous experience in this area. At present, 13 banks are active in the import of gold and the quantum of gold imported through these banks has been in the range of 500 tonne per year.

While RBI enables a favourable environment, it is for the banks to take the concept of inter bank forward trading further. It must be recognised that any market related product (like bullion futures) is assessed based on needs and not by its mere existence.

Forward Market Commission (FMC) has to form its views on this feasibility and as reported recently in the press, the Government of India has initiated steps for strengthening the working of the Forward Market Commission.

Should not RBI be the regulating body for the proposed bullion exchange, given the sensitivity of the commodity which is both a currency and also a commodity? Any steps currently under way to utilise the futures market facilities of the National Stock Exchange?
The basic framework for an exchange exists with 13 banks active in the import of precious metals and five of them having launched the Gold Deposit Scheme.

Once the banks start trading among themselves according to the demand-supply dynamics, a formal move towards a Gold Exchange would be appropriate. As regards regulation it may be premature to analyse the issue. When the product develops, the market would certainly put to use all the available state-of-art infrastructure.

Your reaction to the failure of the gold deposit scheme launched in 1999 that attracted just 7-8 tn of gold. Any changes likely to make the scheme more attractive?

The Government of India announced the Gold Deposit Scheme in 1999 and RBI issued guidelines to the banks intending to launch the Scheme in October 1999. Five banks have launched their schemes under the guidelines and the quantum of gold mobilised so far has been about 7 tonne.

The scheme is yet to evoke the expected response. As I mentioned during my speech in Delhi on ‘Evolving Role of Gold - Recent Trends and Future Directions’ last month, a number of reasons can be cited for the low response to the gold deposit scheme, prominent among them being depositors’ losing the making charges spent on jewellery, the low caratage of jewellery, low rate of return on deposits from the depositors’ perspective and the absence of amnesty.

It is expected that once the wide cross-section of the public becomes aware of the benefits of the scheme, it would generate sufficient interest. At present, there is no proposal for any change in the scheme before us.

In this context, as part of positive approach to consumers, establishment of a Gold Market Development Agency as a voluntary self regulatory organisation could be considered to devise mechanisms by which the efficiency of the market and the integrity of products are ensured and augmented.

Would the heavy influence of forces in the parallel economy in the bullion market hamper the overall development of a regular bullion futures market and the proposed futures exchange?
The new Gold Policy has considerably liberalised the bullion market. This has significantly reduced illegal transactions and driven profiteers out of illegal transactions mainly by reducing transaction costs and reducing the difference between gold prices in the world and in the Indian market.

There is scope for further rationalising gold import policy including removal of individual-based special facilities such as those extended to NRIs, reviewing the policy of import of gold through special licenses and restriction on import of gold as part of personal baggage by returning Indians.

As use of official channels increases, the gold market and exchange will automatically evolve.

How safe or otherwise is gold when compared to other financial assets for common investor?

There are divergent views on the role of gold as a safe financial asset. One of such view is that gold is the only asset totally free of any credit risk and in the long run, it is an effective hedge against inflation. However, recent incidences have shown that the volatility, which is, generally associated with other financial assets is applicable to gold also.

Also, the return from investments in gold may be compared with the return on investment in government bonds in the Indian markets. For example, if gold had been purchased at end-February 1996, and sold at end-February 2002, at the prevailing rates in the local bullion market, the average annualised return would work out to be negative. On the contrary, investment in liquid risk-free Government security on the same dates would have fetched a comfortable positive return, and in case capital gains through marked to market is also taken into account, the annualised average return could be as high as 15 per cent.

YGMBank of France View on Gold.....#7723506/01/02; 01:25:45

Very Interesting re Cb's Views on holding Gold and on Lending etc....Worth a read only just don't try to copy it my box froze up comtinually.....YGM.
YGMWorld Gold Holdings by Country.........#7723606/01/02; 01:31:33

Very Interesting!......Commit this to file and we'll have a look see next year!!!
I'll give odds the #'s will have changed upwards....

YGMPower is Where the Gold Is........Tom Rose.#7723706/01/02; 01:42:09


No careful observer of history will even try to deny that Americans have suffered severe losses of liberty during this century. This loss of freedom is often sloughed off as a necessary part of the growth of population and of the growing complexity of our social and economic framework. But this is a sadly deficient analysis. The ownership of and control over real economic resources is the bulwark of a people's economic and political freedom. Citizens who own and control substantial real assets cannot easily be dominated by politicians and bureaucrats, for the control of real wealth provides citizens with economic alternatives which lead to independence rather than dependence on the dictates of others.

It is in this light that we should regard the gradual draining of gold and silver from the pockets of citizens and the centralization of gold holdings under the control of political rulers. It is doubtful that Americans will ever again be able to exert effective control over their elected officials unless they demand the return of a gold- and silver-backed currency. The widely dispersed ownership of gold held in private bank vaults and in the homes of millions of citizens is a strong bulwark against the slow and eventual growth of totalitarianism. On the other hand, the centralization of gold holdings at the national level constitutes an invitation to tyranny that few political leaders have the character to resist.


Golden BearGold Investing 101.#7723806/01/02; 02:10:52

For all the new posters on the forum who may need some advice...


Belgian* INTERVENTION *#7723906/01/02; 02:22:35

Ad nauseum, intervention remains on the order of the day as soon as crucial breaking-points, risk to indicate (the wrong) trend ! €/$ crossing 0,93 and POG > 326$.
Evidence, again, that we have (!!!) to live, work and love, within a "managed" economical environment. Japanese Giant dollar-holders were forced to intervene firmly for their own sake and to the benefit of an economical falsified world.
POG (not *immune* VOG) was/is temporary halted in its temporary (!!!) subordinate role as follower.

Those interventions cause many chain reactions (side-effects). Many valuations (stocks/interest rates), remain or increase, in falsified modus. Absolutely nescessary to carry on, economically. In the mean time, "the rot" can proliferate further. So be it.

Interventions have the particular characteristic of "stopping" at once and without warning, for God only knows, what reason. Always remember that when the music (intervention) stops...there's only one chair left...a Golden one made out of the Physical and not paper!

Thursday and friday, intraday action was the clearest of evidence/example of how a POG run was broken, to see by any observer. Conclusion : a declining dollar exchange rate is "the" drama ! The one and only precursor of dramatic chain effects, increasing as time goes by.

Sunny weekend to all.

The Invisible HandCastro makes euro legal tender#7724006/01/02; 06:15:39

The euro becomes legal tender from Saturday in Cuba's biggest tourist beach resort, Varadero.

The BBC's Havana correspondent says the euro will now probably spread into the wider Cuban economy, helped by the black market in hard currency

CanuckTrying to glue some thoughts together.................#7724106/01/02; 07:03:35

Starting with Hamilton's essay above (thank you Golden Bear), and focusing on his 'gold investment pyramid', it becomes plain, well crystal clear (at least to me) where one wants to be at the end of the day.

Physical gold.

Arisotle, FOA, TC, Another, yes all the PGA's are correct, I believe one day I will be a 'die-hard', gold-in-hand' all-physical guy. Yes, one day "the piano will fall" and it does appear that day approaches swiftly. When that day arrives, and surely it will, one must ask oneself 'what do I want to be holding?' Yen in mattresses? Baskets of stock certificates, be it BULLION.NYSE or DOT.COM? As I traverse up and down Hamilton's pyramid building wealth(?) I wish, no I want to 'time' the crash and 'soft land in the foundation of physical on the 'day of reckoning.

Alarmist? Greedy? Stupid?

I don't think so. I just wish to be holding what will be the 'asset of last resort' when that time arrives. What is more fundamentally pure than physical gold. One can even disect that to bullion and coin. 50/50?

So why do I play the pyramid game? If I am such a srong believer in physical why own gold stock or for that matter any other stock? Why would I even contemplate silver options?


Well quite frankly I don't have enough of the 'metal of kings'. I play the leverage game as far as some stomach will tolerate and lately I am winning, it feels good to have won a bet for a change. Apparently a pair of yahoos with a pick and a pan, speculating for gold and recently IPO'ed I may add, have had a run-up. Great. I threw in my my bits and now I have 5.

I now can climb down 'the pyramid' and throw 3 bits of profits into MY metal.

Dangerous game, you bet.

But how else can I do it? After my dismal fiat-payday, I pay my bills, invest, contemplate a new patio set, hell even a new fishing pole but then alas, the cupboard is bare. No new metal!! Must use leverage, how does 1 get me 10? Then yes, a patio set, a fishing pole and a little gold dust is mine!

A dilema no doubt, and to make matters worse I must be at the bottom in a timely fashion.


Canuck@ turkey hunter, slingslot, Kevin$#7724206/01/02; 07:18:17

Congrats gentlemen

Yes the 'lines' were thrown about all week and I find it most amusing that it was dead centre of the 325/328 window, fitting yes?

A technician I am not, but I do draw attention again to the Sept. 28, 1999 (NY spot) high of 327 (and change) and the Oct.5, 1999 (London) high of 337 (and change).

I do look forward to clearing 338/340, a golden day it will be!!!!!!!!!!

slingshotWhat a Nice Surprize.#7724306/01/02; 08:00:05


Just coming on line after a couple days in the woods.
Did you hear my cheer when I found out I have the Silver?
I'm closer to the Gold this time M.K.
Congrats to Turkey Hunter for winning the Gold and To Kevin$
for winning the other silver.

Thank you M.K and all at USAGOLD for having the contest.
Thanks to Gandalf the White for his time and effort.

We are all winners here at USAGOLD!



Gandalf the WhiteAttention: Sirs Turkey Hunter, slingshot and Kevin$#7724406/01/02; 08:59:11

Please, would the three WINNERS provide their correct mailing addresses VIA an EMAIL message to the "ATTN" of Jill at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. !!!! This will allow the Golden and Silver Prizes to be "posted" and reach your hands in a timely fashon.

Gandalf the WhiteDIRECT email address for LADY Jill#7724506/01/02; 09:07:40

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Please use this!

Black BladeInvestors Rolling in Cash, Avoid Stocks#7724606/01/02; 13:59:45


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wasting away, waiting for idle cash to find its way back into the stock market. It's the story that has been heard on Wall Street for the last two years. By some estimates, more than $2 trillion is sitting on the sidelines. It's a mountain of unused money that could power the next bull market. But the betting is the cash may not be put to work any time soon because corporate earnings are still not exciting after crashing by 31 percent last year. The economic recovery is not assured because business investment, which slumped and pulled the economy into recession last year, is still flat. Investment in computers and other high-tech stuff drove the 1990s boom. And in order for the economy to get back on its feet, businesses need to start spending again.

Indeed, the character of the stock market has changed. What the market needs to get investors back into play is good news every day, which is a pretty tall order. In the meantime, smart money people are patiently waiting on the sidelines, wiser than they were two years ago. There's a reluctance to get back into stocks because of the risk the market could be brought down by an unexpected event such as a major flare-up in the oil-rich Middle East. By some estimates, $5 trillion has gone up in flames since March 2000, a ton of money equal to half of the total U.S. gross domestic product of $10 trillion. So it's easy to understand why investors have developed a "once burned, twice shy" mentality.

Black Blade: It does not look to get any better. Investors lost $5 Trillion when the markets imploded. That's $5 TRILLION – gone – "gone to money heaven!" There is no increase in capital expenditures by large corporations. Many retirees will have to learn phrases such as: "would you like fries with that?" and "welcome to WalMart". As always get out of debt, stash enough cash for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic goods storage program.

Black BladeGold price surges to two-year high on war fears, strong demand in Asia#7724706/01/02; 14:10:33


HONG KONG (AP) -- The money-counting machine at the crowded Bao Tin gold shop in a quiet back street of Hanoi seems to endlessly churn through bills. The shop's workers snatch time between sales to log onto the Internet, checking prices in London and Hong Kong. "Every time I save enough money, I buy some gold. It doesn't matter to me what the price is, because it's for savings," says Tran Tri Loan, a vegetable and flower farmer.

The business of gold is booming in Vietnam, as it seems to be almost everywhere these days. Terrorism fears, Middle East tensions, renewed hostilities between India and Pakistan, Japan's wobbly economy -- all have contributed to the recent surge in the price of gold to its highest level in more than two years. Added to the speculative pressures driving the flight into gold is the age-old appetite for the precious metal among Asians, who traditionally have used it as a hedge against uncertainty.

Worldwide, purchases of gold investment products surged 36 percent in the first quarter of the year, helped by the strong buying in Vietnam and Japan, as well as China, Pakistan and Turkey, the London-based World Gold Council reported. Vietnamese hoard the stuff, hoping to save enough to buy homes priced in gold taels -- equivalent to 37.75 grams (1.32 ounces). Mainland Chinese tourists flood into glittery Hong Kong gold shops to pick up chunky gold necklaces and bracelets -- symbols of new affluence.

Japanese have been shifting a share of their massive nest eggs into gold, wary of new government limits of deposit insurance and desperate for investments that might gain them more than the 0.1 percent interest rates now paid by troubled banks. Japanese demand soared to 56.5 tons (50.9 metric tons) in the first quarter of this year, more than double the 22.1 tons (19.9 metric tons) bought in the same period a year ago, and more than half the total 109.3 tons (98.4 metric tons) bought by Japanese in all of 2001, said the World Gold Council, an association of gold producers.

Black Blade: Very good article worth reading. Growth in Gold portfolio insurance is taking off – especially now as the world is taking a dangerous shift and the global economy is very uncertain.

BoilermakerDavid Tice Commentary of 5/22/02#7724806/01/02; 14:29:27

The first 8 pages of this 40 page pdf file (semi-annual report for the Prudent Bear Funds) are David Tice's latest read on the US economy. Here's the sub-headings to give you some feel for the contents;

The Markets
The Economy
Real Estate Bubble
Argentina's Lesson
Back to the USA
The Disappearance of the Guardian
The Key Issue-Dollar Risk

Tice makes a compelling comparison of Argentina vs. US policy, eg., "it is a grevious policy error to adopt a monetary structure that is unsustainable over the longer-term and vulnerable to implosion, no matter how immediately expedient. When it comes to monetary policymaking, conservatism must overrule seductive experimentalism."

This is a very worthwhile article.

Congratulations to the contest winners from one who was lucky enough in the past to have been one.

PippinGOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM , PALLADIUM & DIAMONDS#7724906/01/02; 14:49:33

Found an interesting editorial by Mr Chapman.
I did not know that Newmont was hedged btw.

The gold miners in South Africa are contemplating another industry wide strike that could send gold prices flying higher.

As gold hit $310 an ounce JP Morgan Chase analysts decried that the potential for further gains were small and an over-bought situation had developed. Gold is now $318 and ounce. So much for JPM predictions. This sell recommendation came just before gold reached its former recent high and was an attempt to manipulate the market. A letter writing campaign to the SEC, NASD, FTC and the New York State AG's office demanding JPM declare its gold and gold share positions is in order. This will put more pressure on the cartel. We have contended for 42 years that in situations like today's markets you can throw charts out the window except for day trading. They just won't work. We see the chance of a terrorist attack over the 4th of July weekend at even money and you can't get that off a chart nor can you get the affects of manipulation. Let's force Morgan to reveal their positions and in this way we can disarm them. If the world understood that the national value of Morgan's derivative position was $60 trillion they'd freak out.
If gold remains in the $315 to $350 range for the remainder of the year the financial situation for Barrick and AngloGold will look bleak and Placer's situation isn't encouraging. The top four hedgers Barrick, AngloGold, Placer Dome and Newmont have 50 million ounces of hedge commitments, 50%, of which belong to Barrick.
The timeline for the Ashanti hedge book, which with the assistance of Goldman Sachs blew-up, is December 31,2002. That's when the margin has to be covered. Gold should be at $384 an ounce by then and Ashanti will go the way of the dodo bird.
On 5/29/02 Goldman Sachs recommended the sale of three gold stocks and was negative on the group. When asked by CNBC if they owned these stocks they said they were short and long. We have an unimpeachable inside source that tells us that they are 98% short and 2% long. That is why CNBC refuses to ask real probing questions just softballs


Old YellerThe Economist on Argentina's woes#7725006/01/02; 15:49:28

No mention of gold and silver being used as money as the crisis intensifies.Being a country rich in both metals,it would seem as if someone with an alternative vision on just what constitutes a rich country could go a long way in Argentina.

Seeing that the US is deemed to be the model to emulate,a quick perusal of the US balance sheet would just show another Argentina,only one that dwarves the debt burden by a multitude of thousands.So why is the dollar valuble,yet the peso is deemed worthless?

Since the IMF has decided to let Argentina twist in the wind and the fact remains that Argentina is a country rich in resources,trading agricultural output for gold and silver only,especially at today's artificially created prices would seem to be a valid solution.

While doing this,the hyprocrisy and moral bankruptcy of US monetary authorities should be stressed as well as an organized boycott of US dollar use within the country.All holders of US dollars should be encouraged to convert to physical gold and silver and to conduct their business using this virtually risk free money that is out of reach of government and bankers.

Vision for constructive change will never be obtained within a system of legalized theft and counterfeiting which is the Bretton Woods agreement.It is time for a victim of this horrific plundering to stand up and say,"We're as mad as hell and we're not going to take it anymore".

misetichWhilst most are optimistics on the US econony recovery corporate insiders turn bearish#7725106/01/02; 16:22:21

"There has been huge, huge insider selling," said Phil Roth, the veteran technical analyst at Miller Tabak, referring to legal sales by corporate officers and directors, not to illegal trading on inside information. He noted that over the last eight weeks, there had been 4.2 insider sales for every insider purchase reported. There are usually more open-market sellers than buyers, since insiders get a lot of their stock by exercising options, but this ratio is higher than it ever was in the 1990's bull market.

(requires registration)

GoldnSilver2002Looking into the future..341 in sight now#7725206/01/02; 16:29:41

Congratulations TurkeyHunter!Whens the next contest?

In my opinion,no amount of analysts screaming sell now!Will stop the bull run in gold and silver.Before we had no coverage on Gold,now at least some is good and the rest is better than none.The more these turkeys scream "sell sell gold now",people think to themselves,"wait a minute i dont have any gold,i better get some.!"Soon (not so little) ladies investment group u.s.a ,eager to get back the money these crooks on wall street took will come running back to gold still able to remember 1980 and earlier.

Wall street is turning green,as the 2 trillion on the sidelines starts a huge drive to the precious metals.As the dow dips or even goes sideways gold and silver drive up ever faster.I believe the cartel lost control of gold at 308/per oz.In 2 weeks it climbed to 326 and higher,not numbers those in control want to see,no wonder drumsfeld flew to india."stop it now,your driving gold prices out of control" To which the pakistanis replied ,"have you seen our new nukes?"This situation cannot be stopped and soon the american public will be turning to the DOw,nasdaq exits.

At this rate gold should hit 341 in 2 weeks and in about 1 month the dreaded 354 to 360 price that snaps the cabals backs.Those damn paper gold shorts are gonna blink soon.MOnday should get real interesting.Its JUne boys watch out!!!!

Black BladeRumsfeld heading to India, Pakistan #7725306/01/02; 17:43:44


WASHINGTON -- As an Indian official warned that war is growing more likely, President Bush said he will send Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to India and Pakistan in the next week to try to defuse tensions between the two nuclear powers. The chief minister of Indian-controlled Kashmir, Farooq Abdullah, warned, ''If cross-border terrorism and mortar firing is not stopped (by Pakistan), there's nothing that can prevent a major conflict.''

Black Blade: Cross border attacks continue today. Last night Pakistan ordered at total blackout on fears of imminent air attack. Indian officials have stated that war was imminent and that cross border invasions could start within two weeks. Pakistani troops have been moved from the Afghani border to Kashmir. Pakistani generals have stated that they reserve the right to first use of nuclear weapons due to their disadvantage in conventional warfare material, all the while Musharraf has stated that only a madman would use nuclear weapons in spite of each country manufacturing more. Meanwhile US and UK citizens are being evacuated from both countries – including embassy personnel and their families. "Interesting Times"

rsjacksrRe:Pippin (06/01/02; 14:49:33MT - msg#: 77249)#7725406/01/02; 17:57:08

"I did not know that Newmont was hedged btw."

Newmont became hedged when it acquired Normandy. In the last couple of days, we have had a least five post with regards to the percentage of production that miners have hedged via Mr. Schultz and company. The article, in it's entirety was re-printed by YGM. See any of the listings below:

YGM (5/29/02; 20:09:02MT - msg#: 76916)

YGM (5/29/02; 23:45:16MT - msg#: 76952)

JCTex (05/30/02; 08:21:17MT - msg#: 76996)

Troy Boy (05/30/02; 08:14:31MT - msg#: 76994)

Canuck (5/30/02; 05:05:23MT - msg#: 76976)

YGMGoldnSilver2002 (06/01/02; 16:29:41MT - msg#: 77252)#7725506/01/02; 17:57:57

You Said It!

We all (most) tend to forget about the gazillions $$ right here in N America, Mexico, S America and Europe when we focus on the Gold buying power of India, Japan, China & Arabs etc....Big, Big, GOLD HUNGRY WORLD out there!!!

I firmly believe we're watching what will be much recorded
history in the making....Let'er rip!

Central Banksters and their NWO domination are going to get a dose of peaceful revolution thru mass exodus from their Fiat tyranny and monetary/financial brainwashing....YGM

PS: GATA will never outlive it's purpose or usefulness. I believe it will always be around as a Worldly Watch-Dog & possibly the people's "Advocate" in as yet unknown arenas!
Just my opinion tho....YGM

YGMRecorded in History.........And "History" it will be!#7725606/01/02; 18:32:37

There are 72 Names on the GATA Honor Roll. Names of those who were out there chin first. Publicly standing out and up for their beliefs. Now noone would think less of those who financialy supported GATA thru donations made in silence cause there are so many and anonyminity must be respected for whatever reason.....Without the silent masses the GATA war probably could not have been waged.....

But the Honor Roll should have "Thousands" of names on it, not just 72.....

I believe with all my heart and soul that the 'Gold Anti- Trust Action Committee' will cause books to be written in future times.....GATA is and will be the primary reason that Central Banks were foiled in the 'Greatest Gold Scam' of all time! Reg Howe and so many others will have their recorded place also, but GATA is the Army that took the Battle to the forefront.

This GATA Army 'Honor Roll' will serve as an Epitaph when we the few "True Advocates" of Gold are long gone and forgotten!

Disclaimer: This post has no connection to the GATA Officers and is unauthorized and entirely my personal thoughts.....YGM.

WaveriderTurkey Hunter, Slingshot, Kevin$#7725706/01/02; 18:37:07

Congratulations to all of you, well done! I raise my beer to you as I head for my lawn chair to finish Hubbert's Peak...cheers to the winning contestants!


Cavan ManDollar/Euro#7725806/01/02; 18:41:29

Top Financial News

06/01 10:17
Dollar May Extend Record Stretch of Declines: Currency Outlook
By Beth Thomas

New York, June 1 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may continue to fall against the euro as investors move capital away from the U.S. on concern the pace of recovery is slowing.

``There is a fundamental shift out of U.S. dollar investments going on,'' said Laurie Cameron, head of global foreign exchange in New York at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s private bank, which invests $300 billion. The U.S. is ``not going to be able to attract huge new chunks of foreign capital'' needed to support the dollar, she said.

The U.S. currency dropped for a record fourth month against the euro, sinking 3.5 percent in May to 93.33 cents per euro. The dollar's four-month drop against the yen, to 124.26 yen, was the longest since the last half of 1999. It touched a 16-month low against the euro and a six-month low versus the yen on Thursday.

Against a basket of currencies including the yen, euro, Swiss franc, British pound, Swedish krona and Canadian dollar, the dollar has lost 5.8 percent of its value so far this quarter.

More than $1 billion a day flows from the U.S. to foreign hands as a result of the U.S. current-account deficit, which swelled to a record $417.4 billion in 2001. That leaves the currency vulnerable when international investors shift to other countries.

``There's a growing questioning of the ability of the U.S. to continue to finance (the deficit) as it has done up to now,'' said Tim O'Dell, who helps oversee about $25 billion at Investec Asset Management in London.

Money Flows

Europeans bought $17.1 billion more stocks and bonds from U.S. investors than they sold in January and February, down from $54 billion in the same period a year earlier, and compared with $61 billion in the first two months of 2000, according to U.S. Treasury figures.

Money managers are turning outside the world's largest economy on expectations growth and corporate profits may be slow to recover from recession. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to a 40-year low of 1.75 percent last year, returns on U.S. fixed-income investments are also less appealing.

Yields on 10-year German bunds, for example, are 11.5 basis points higher than those on U.S. Treasury notes of the same maturity. That's a reversal from two months ago, when the U.S. debt had a 17 basis-point advantage.

In the past, ``if you're a European or Japanese investor, you'd invest in the U.S. because you expect better returns,'' said Guillaume Sciard, who manages 2.2 billion euros ($2 billion) at Barclays Asset Management France in Paris. ``Now there's a question mark about the U.S. currency.''

Euro `Magnet'

Sciard holds more euro-denominated bonds relative to his benchmarks than dollars, British pounds and yen. He said the euro may climb to $1 by the end of the year.

Reports showing German business confidence rose for a sixth month in seven are fueling optimism for growth in the 12-nation economy and stoking demand for assets in the common currency, investors said.

``There's a serious possibility the euro is going to emerge as a leading magnet for disaffected dollar money,'' said Investec's O'Dell, who holds ``significantly'' more euro- denominated investments than suggested by his benchmarks.

Money also flows to Europe as a result of the current-account surplus, which grew to 3.7 billion euros ($3.45 billion) in March from a deficit of 600 million euros ($560 million) a year earlier, the European Central Bank said.

``The euro has got a good shot at becoming the currency of the year,'' said Peter Fontaine at KBC Asset Management in Brussels, which invests 25 billion euros in bonds.


Some investors disagree.

``There are problems in the U.S., but productivity growth is still much higher than in Europe,'' said Joop Bresser, who helps oversee 17 billion euros ($15 billion) at Delta Lloyd Asset Management in Amsterdam. ``I'm in doubt about whether this euro rally will continue.''

The U.S. economy will expand at an annualized 3.1 percent this quarter, compared with 5.6 percent in the first, according to the consensus of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey. The European Commission cut its growth estimates to 0.2 percent from 0.3 percent for the first quarter and to between 0.3 percent and 0.6 percent in the second for the dozen-nation economy.

Yen Sales?

Japan's yen rose as foreign investors lifted the Nikkei 225 stock index 17 percent in the past four months. Overseas investors were net buyers of Japanese stocks for the six weeks ended May 24, according to the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

A report next week will show the world's No. 2 economy grew an annualized 6.8 percent in the January-March period, according to economists' forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The prospect of a recovery from Japan's worst post-war recession is bolstering optimism for the country's assets, some investors said.

Still, the yen's rally may stall on concern Japan will again sell the currency. The central bank sold the yen on three days in the past two weeks to keep it from gaining more and eroding exporters' earnings.

``We are paying close attention to the currency,'' as ``we can expect them to come in regularly and slow any rapid moves,'' said Andrew Milligan, who helps manage 75 billion pounds ($110 billion) at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh.

sectorWar Analysis-It May be a Long One...With Big Trouble at the End#7725906/01/02; 19:07:14
Judging by the way international crises are going at present, DEBKAfile's military experts do not rule out the possibility of the fall months of September and October 2002 seeing three full-scale wars raging at one and the same time, between India and Pakistan, the US and Iraq and Israel and the Palestinians.
To ward off an additional complication, Bush applied all his powers of persuasion to making Russian president Vladimir Putin cut back on technological and military aid for completing the development of Iran's nuclear weapons capability. This was the main topic at issue between the two presidents when they met in the third week of May. Putin promised to see what he could do, but nothing has so far been known to happen.

Pakistan's nuclear weaponry is a worry to Washington, as much as the Iranian and Iraqi nuclear capabilities. Though saying little, the US administration has been haunted by the thought of Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into the hands of Muslim extremists like al Qaeda. It would therefore welcome the elimination of Islamabad's nuclear option, even if this came about as a result of a full-scale Indo-Pakistani war.
DEBKAfile's military and Asian sources disclose that both sides have laid their war plans for the worst-case scenario:
India's Strategy: Indian troops would drive into different parts of Pakistan: Jumping off from Amritsar in the Punjab, they will head west and advance on the east Pakistani towns of Gujranwala, Lahore and Faisalabad, hotbeds of Muslim extremist groups, including the Lashkar-e-Toiba, Jamat al Dawa and al Qaeda militants, who provide recruits to be trained for combat n Kashmir. The Indian army appears to be preparing to emulate some of the tactics employed in the Israel Preventive Shield Operation against Palestinian towns in April.
Pakistan's Strategy: The Pakistani army is not big enough to match India's ability to fight on three fronts. Its generals will therefore focus on an all-out attempt to leap from the Pakistani Punjab to the Indian Punjab and on south to HaryanaState. A second task force will collect in the central Pakistani region of Bahawalpur ready to spring into IndianHaryanaState and cover the distance to New Delhi. The chances of these two forces actually reaching the gates of New Delhi are slim, but the attempt calls for audacity.

American intelligence evaluations of the progress of the Indo-Pakistan war recently swung round sharply from a short, intense conflict to a drawn-out struggle that could stretch over many months, together with an estimate of between four to six weeks into the fighting before either of the belligerents considers whether or not to bring out its nuclear weapons.

Note the incursion style [Jenin] strategy planned by India.

It's tough to argue against this position when the "Termites" keep coming East.

WaveriderGold dealers doing big business#7726006/01/02; 21:03:33

"On Friday, as gold prices rose to their highest level in more than two years, coin and precious metals dealers said their phones won't stop ringing.

"The world has changed," said George Cooper of Centennial Precious Metals, a Denver-based company with dozens of customers in the Twin Cities. "I get calls from New York City, and they wouldn't have talked to me two years ago to save my life. They believed in Wall Street, and now they're basically running scared. Greed feeds the stock market, fear feeds the gold market."

Cooper, who normally can all but close up shop in the summer but is now thinking about hiring sales help, is much more optimistic. He thinks that by year's end the price of gold will go up at least a $100 an ounce or more.

"I can hear the fear in their voice that all is not well," he said. "It's nervous buying, driven by fear. People are looking for safety and security, and that's what gold provides."

Waverider: Way to go CPM!

vermillionwhat happens if a nuclear bomb blows up in your home town?#7726106/01/02; 21:08:49

here you can plot the distruction and the fallout of a typical blast from a nuclear bomb and superimpose the image over your home town.
Do you think that perhaps the Pakistan leadership is presently being shown stuff like this (along with video)
to give them pause?

P.S. congrats to the winners!

Chris PowellReg Howe's presentation to the mining analyst conference in London#7726206/01/02; 23:07:50

12:46a ET Sunday, June 2, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Reg Howe's presentation to the Association of Mining
Analysts in London on May 23 has been posted at You can find it here:

With his usual brilliance, Reg describes the background
of his lawsuit against the gold cabal in U.S. District
Court in Boston, the meaning of Judge Lindsay's decision,
the history of the United States' conversion from money
of intrinsic money to inconvertible paper money, the
evidence of surreptitious rigging of the gold price by
governments, and where all this leaves us.

It's must reading, and ranks with the last investigative
report by James Turk of the Freemarket Gold and Money
Report and Robert K. Landis' essay about Barrick's hedge

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

Black BladeGold guru sees price above $1,000 ounce#7730006/02/02; 22:20:59

Around The CornerRE: Loss of Confidence...Loss of Faith...The CIA/FBI Meltdown#7730106/02/02; 22:44:58

The question I'd like to see asked is:

"Mr. Tenent, were you instructed by either George H. W. Bush, George W. Bush or Dick Cheney to "back off" investigating al-qaida, and if so, when was this instruction given to you?"

It's blatantly obvious that early on, the Bush administration wanted to befriend the Taliban and do business with them, which was a 180 degree turn from the Clinton policy.

Until just after September 11, 2001, the Bush's were business partners with the Saudi based bin Ladens. Amazing, no? Further, George W. Bush gave the Taliban $43 million of our tax dollars in August of 2001.

You see, there was this issue of building an oil/gas pipeline through Afghanistan, worth trillions of dollars to his campaign contributors and, coincendently, once built, it would help Bush's #1 campaign contributor, "Kenny Boy", out of a $3 billion dollar jam in India.

Maybe this is why Cheney refuses to release the notes of the U.S. Energy Policy meetings that "Kenny Boy" (and others situated to benefit from the Afghanistan pipeline) attended.

Obvious dots?

If this was their plan, then all I have to say gold and silver, and buy as much as you can, and be quick about it. The dog WILL be wagged.

Black BladeRe: mikal#7730206/02/02; 22:49:50

The point for Middle Eastern and Venezuelan OPEC producers is to make their oil last at as best price as possible. ME producers have no other natural resource to exploit. The Saudi producers for example can produce oil at about $2.00/bbl and the Russians can produce oil at about $8.00/bbl for example (before transportation, refining and other costs). Recently the US through President Bush during his visit with Putin and earlier contacts with through the administartion, plans were set in motion to acquire a larger share of Russian oil. However, this oil is of lower grade and more expensive to extract.

Over the last several years the average annual per capita income of Saudi citizens has fallen from about $27,000 to roughly $8,000. The Saudis also payoff the Wahabbi clerics and other Islamists in order to keep a lid on possible upheaval in the Kingdom. Now that the oil income has fallen there exists the real possibility for political unrest. Add to all this the rapid population growth in the region and the lack of government jobs along with rising costs of social programs.

The Saudis know that they have a finite resource and it has been suspected that the large ME oil fields are near their "Hubbert Peak" of oil production. There is an Arab saying: "My grandfather rode a camel, my father rode a car, I ride a jet, and my son will ride a camel".

- Black Blade

Black BladeComing tidal wave of gold demand#7730306/02/02; 23:10:33


It's a scenario that's taken time to unfold but is now becoming crystal clear. At its center are gold and the dollar. The scenario is this: The dollar, the once mighty symbol of American might and global dominance, is no longer perceived internationally as being bulletproof – due largely to America's continuing role as the world's leading debtor nation – and, as a result, dollar-holders are beginning to quietly exchange their positions for gold.

For years, due to an artificially low price of gold, there's been a contraction in exploration and new gold mine development. Most mines are geared only to make nominal profits and get by. Significant production from new mines wouldn't realistically take hold for another five, maybe 10 years. So a sudden monster gold move would be compounded by unusually feeble production. Climbing gold prices would then be a lot like the driver of a speeding car … that hits a concrete wall.

Most investments are haunted by nagging questions. Gold no longer is. Not only are the fundamentals solidly in place, not only does demand already exceed supply by some 40 million ounces, and not only is there a 14 percent profit potential virtually built in and a Dow/gold ratio that's still way overbalanced at 27 to 1 (in 1980, that ratio was "normal" at 1 to 1), but with peaking world tensions, rising oil prices and a weakening dollar, do you really feel comfortable not maintaining a 20 to 30 percent gold position in your portfolio? Better think about it.

Black Blade: Interesting article. I saw David Tice of Prudent Bear Fund on a finance show today. He stated his case for a continuing bear market and said that he was still bullish on Gold. The other guests were not as upbeat about Gold, however, the usual statements like "barbarous relic" and "sterile asset" were not mentioned and they seemed anxious to move on to another topic.

GoldnSilver2002JUne should be a big month for gold and the cabal#7730406/02/02; 23:44:41

I guess in my attempt to keep it brief i became confusing.Jimbo with so many world events favorable to gold,i think it is highly likely this is the month the gold shorts blink.At gold's current rate of growth June should be the month gold cracks the 354 to 360 marker,at which point many belive gold will be set free to climb upwards and cracks in the financial sytem become exposed as a result.Many far wiser than me have written about the gold derivatives mess,June could be the month the fireworks go off so to speak.As for monday its the first day of june and one has to believe the powers that be will try and take a firm stand at 325.As a result monday could be a very trying
day for the old boys of the cabal as they frantically try and bring the p.o.g down.So i said to them "watch out boys " JUne is bound to have some surprises,or should i say "the expected unexpected".June being a hot month,it should start to bring matters as they pertain to gold,to a nice boil.Should be interesting to watch,as Black Blade often says "interesting times" and i think June will be a very interesting month.

Black BladeMid-East Oil Producers Oppose Production Hike #773056/3/02; 00:12:23


TEHRAN -- Middle East oil-producers renewed calls for OPEC not to yield to western pressure in increasing global oil supplies in the third quarter of 2002 this week. The outgoing Secretary General of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Ali Rodriguez on 30 May 2002 kicked off in Qatar a Persian Gulf tour that will lead him also to Iran, to evaluate the market ahead of the organizations meeting on 26 June 2002 in Vienna.

Iran, OPEC's second largest producer after Saudi Arabia, on 28 May 2002 said that there was no need to increase production. Evaluating the situation in the market, the Oil Ministry sees it as being stable, Iranian Deputy Oil Minister, Mohammad Mir-Moezi said. Qatari Energy Minister, Abdullah Bin Hamad Al-Attiya shared the same view. There is no reason for Qatar to increase production. The $25 per barrel price is reasonable for consumers and producers, Mr. Al-Attiya said. Most of the OPEC members have spoken so far in favor of maintaining in the third quarter 2002 the current 21.7 million bpd output ceiling set for 10 of the producers. The eleventh member, Iraq, is not bound by the quota system because of UN sanctions and produces around 3 million bpd.

Black Blade: This was expected as the trading range of $22.00/bbl to $28.00/bbl is being maintained.

AristotleSir Interstate, upon taking a second look, maybe this would have cleared things up#773066/3/02; 00:27:52

The first line of my 77290 post to Sir Belgian was "You'll notice that I included the word "sweat" out of respect for your latest offering."

That post grew in the process of writing it beyond my initial purpose, which was to be just that one-liner tip o' the hat through calling his attention to my use of the world "sweat" in my previous post on taxation.

I had admired his post earlier that day, and that's why I chose my words thusly in my 77284 post about taxation:

"A nation's natural resources cannot dodge. Oil in Texas and Gold in Nevada cannot be extracted in the New Republic of Banania where workers are willing to sweat for low pay (in dollar equivalent) and corporate taxes are lower."

In hindsight, seeing how this distinction was likely lost completely because my subsequent post grew to ALSO include this term in respectful reference to the diligently toiling masses, that latter post to Belgian would have began on a clearer note for your interpretation if I had revised the first line to read as follows:

"You'll notice ***in my #77284 taxation commentary*** that I included the word "sweat" out of respect for your latest offering."

Oh well. I'll try harder next time to eliminate these margins for misinterpretation.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Black BladeWeaning Off the Barrel#773076/3/02; 00:36:34


For years, the economy has been addicted to high oil prices. But, as Ben Aris reports, by keeping the taps open, President Vladimir Putin has managed to break Russia's crude habit.

"Putin came to the job of president convinced that the 1998 financial crisis was caused by Russia's overdependence on oil. His first priority since then has been to break this addiction by boosting production so that Russia Inc. is profitable at any price," says Chris Weafer, head of research at Troika Dialog. "And he has already succeeded."

Weafer believes Russia has kicked its habit of coasting along and relying on oil exports to bail out the economy while reforms are ignored. Rising oil production means Russia has already passed the crucial breakeven point. From now on, oil money is only going to make reform easier.

The key to understanding Russia's attitude to oil, Weafer says, is to realize that the budget needs to generate about $20 billion per year from oil-related taxes to balance. President Vladimir Putin's strategy has been to encourage oil companies to increase production as fast as possible: the more they export, the lower the price of oil can be to earn the money the government needs.

The oil production high is temporary as Russian companies are working at full capacity, while Saudi Arabia is at two-thirds capacity, but the export record is permanent, and Russia is unlikely to give up territory gained to OPEC, which has been badgering Russia to cut production to boost sagging prices.

Energy was high on the agenda during U.S. President George W. Bush's visit here last month. U.S. Undersecretary of Energy Robert Card had said in an interview with Kommersant at the end of April, "The U.S. is seeking increased supplies from Russia. If Russia offers a reasonable price, we will buy oil in Russia."

Black Blade: It still is doubtful that Russia can fill the void if OPEC oil is cut significantly. It is also doubtful that Russia can produce oil cheaper. Still, it is interesting to see that the old Russian propaganda machine is still at work. Though an interesting article.

HoratioSilver, Gold Standard#773086/3/02; 00:49:05

The U.S. should go on the Silver standard as should Mexico
Central and South America and England since thier investments and trade are tied to the U.S..Europe and surrounding countries
and countries that predominately trade with Europe should go on the Gold Standard.The Ratio of gold to Silver will need to be fixed in order to have stable trade relations with no devaluations ,thereby removing devaluations as a trade weapon.
This will lead to confidence in government, savings increases
less dependence on debt and wealth by increases in trade and lower taxes.Before this can happin a final devaluation of all paper currency needs to take place.The price of gold and silver need to be high enough to stimulate trade.The forces of bankers
will need to be silenced ,they will try to keep the price of gold much lower than is needed so as they might get a paper currency advantage.We will need politicians with the courage of Jackson and the intellect of Hamilton to accomplish this.
Divine intervention may be needed,but it happened before when the founding fathers were all living at the same time .If America is deserving it may happin again.

skiContrarian Indicator for Silver#773096/3/02; 01:14:08

Contrarians often wisely look for "WHAT ISN'T HAPPENING" in a given investment arena to give them clues for the future. On Friday, silver broke solidly through the five dollar level and yet there has been almost no mention of it on one of the most popular goldbug sites on the internet. (this site) What gives? Was I the only one that noticed that the percentage gains in silver last week more than doubled those of gold?

Given the above, contrarian analysis says that it is still very, very early in the new bull market for silver and the largest percentage gains are here. IMHO

Artie FarkleTo all#773106/3/02; 02:08:35


In a stunning U-turn for the Bush administration, the United States has sent a climate report to the United Nations detailing "specific and far-reaching effects" that it says "global warming will inflict" on the American environment.

Comment: Could George W. be laying the ground work to deal with a coming fuel shortage? Maybe a higher fuel tax?
How might this affect gold and mining?

Black BladeRe: Artie #773116/3/02; 02:23:31

Better than that (taxes). Currently there is a big face off between the BLM and EPA over Coalbed Methane drilling in the Rocky Mountain Front, and various locations in the southeast. Coalbed Methane (natural gas) may be the next largest source of cheap energy that could produce twice as much methane as conventional natural gas drilling. This face off threatens to postpone the supply of natural gas to power generating facilities that depend on clean burning natural gas. After the defeat that the Bush administration suffered over the proposed drilling at ANWR, they really don't need to suffer another setback if they lose the fight on the Rocky Mountain Front. What better way to promote the drilling for Coalbed Methane than to sell it as the solution for appeasing those who fear "Global Warming" and override the public "environmentalist" fears. This kills two birds with one stone. A real smart move on Bush and Cheney's part that secures a vital clean resource. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Belgian@ Ari and Timber....#773126/3/02; 03:06:00

Allow me trying to re-write my understandings of that US$ reserve currency that has so many different mental associations in one :
The US$ as currency for Americans and that same dollar as currency for the many different *other* (non Americans)holders/users (workers and wealthy). This US$ as a "reserve" had (!) a glorious past. But soon, all the different reasons for holding or using that unique reserve currency by Americans and non Americans is to change. This change will be dramatic for the simple reason that the US$ reached its fullest status of "personal" and "individual" standard, with all its different nuances. The dishoarding of that US$ money/saving/commodity, will evolve at different speeds and volumes in time.

The most recent example of Cuba's public announcement (encouragement) to accept the euro as valuable another evidence of the ongoing proces.
Cuban's monetary thoughts (mental value associations) will still be conducted in terms of their local currency, there to stay for an unknown future. But something will/has changed for them. That almighty, unchallenged, US$ has been challenged. Now they enter a process of evaluating this challenge between $ and €. This same process was/is/will be initiated in so many different parts of the world, where a certain dollar-fatique or even dollar hostility is growing.

TG deep insights on the dollar/euro-challenge are alive and kicking.

Now, can we and many others switch from one US$ standard to a double $/€ standard ? Unpractical, isn't it ?
All those different processes of $/€ evaluations will/must result in final choices. Hard choices with less and less compromises for billions of workers, savers and wealthy few. Now we come to understand what TG means by currency "management". And it is eactly within the secrets of those two completely different managements ($/€) that GOLD makes the black and white difference.

Hoarding and/or dis-hoarding of dollars for euro is not exclusively a matter of commodity or money matters in this very early stages of CHANGE (TRANSITION)! It will differ as soon as the GOLD factor is fully and openly incorporated into the new currency concept.

And yes indeed good we have it : What has GOLD to do with the future dollar and euro ? Fidel Castro doen not suspect that the euro currency has a liaison with Gold.
He even doesn't care. But the euro architects and US dollar printers, do ! Shall we, the workers/savers/wealthy, still sing...working for the yankee dollar, oh-tic-o-tic...oh-tic-o-tac, much longer ?

The point of our exchange of vieuws is clearing out how Americans and non Americans see/feel about that old US$, growing older and older. In these vieuws we do have to turn around the GOLD axis, bad for the dollar, good for the euro.
So we both, Americans and other can profit from what is to come. That makes it such a nice and interesting place to be here at CPM. Thanks folks !

Another perceptual difference between the aging US$ and the rising euro are their "social" connoctations (true or false-good or bad). But the euro offer to joiners is horizontal and the dollar has always been imposed and has that dominant oppressing character. A very important argument for the many who will have to make their choices gradually after the evaluation of both (reserve) currencies. Conquering the world (sorry, a big part of it) without one shot ?

Black BladeThe Gold Bugs Are Lighting Up #773136/3/02; 04:13:10

Prices may keep rising as inflation lurks and the dollar swoons


With regional conflicts, deficit spending, a declining dollar, and hints of inflation on the rise, investors are rediscovering an old standby--gold. From a low of $257 an ounce just over a year ago, gold has jumped 27%, to $327 an ounce, as of May 29--a level not seen since the fall of 1997. For gold bugs, the sharp climb is vindication. During much of the '90s, the dollar and Treasury securities posted superior returns, as central banks worldwide dumped the mineral in exchange for those assets. Gold fans saw only short-lived spikes. In 1999, investors bid gold above $325 on the prospect of more orderly selling by central bankers, but that price proved unsustainable as the dollar continued to rise.

Black Blade: Positive article on Gold from "Business Week". Everyone wants to get on the bandwagon now.

BelgianRussian, Middle East and all other oil and gas.....#773146/3/02; 04:14:22

They will always demand the highest possible price for their resource and payment with a currency that is most trusted, by this producers (!!!) for its future purchasing power, for them ! Most resources (oil/gas) are to be found in the poorest regions on this globe ! A conflict of interest between state owned resources and private interests has been and still is exploited at the dollar's advantage. Euroland in particular has been profitting from this for quite some time now. Euroland has the desire to change this, so they can take over the orchestrating stick.

The Russia / German / US interactions on oil and gas are very crucial. It is a major element in the dollar/euro (gold) realignment. An interwoven web, constantly altering whilst evolving.

The US wants the "cheap" oil and Euroland (Germany) wants Russia (for trade) and the Balkan, *through* the oil and gas agreements (old dreams never dy)! Hughe Big difference.
The US is NOT interested in an economical, to become, strong Russia. Euroland has to play/balance the private and state conflicts inside Russia. In analogy with the feodal M.E. Arabian oil regime(s). The elite's powers who were dollar-addicted, will slowly be shifted to the people's power in the hope they will chose the gold-euro as their future ally. Euroland playing the social aspect of prosperity with the currency-instrument.

Aristotle, it is against this growing background that you have to judge on the future purchasing power of your american dollar. But, you already made your choice and opted for the safest alternative : THE MOST UNIVERSAL PHYSICAL IN POSSESSION ! I did (still doing) the same .
Not to replace that, old and dying, personal dollar (reserve) standard, but for the GOLD element into the whole euro-concept of GROWTH and STABILITY.

Hipplebeckabout Russian oil#773166/3/02; 05:31:48

The reason that the push is on to get Russian oil on a steady trade operation into the US is so that the US can attack the Arab countries without being completely shut down.
The fight is between rounds right now, but the two sides (Isreal and the Arab countries) will soon come out swinging again. The Bushies want all that Middle East oil under their control, the Isrealis want all of Isreal. The Arabs know that they are at war right now and are fighting the best way they can. They are joining together and they are fighting in the economic arena. The great chess game of global dominance goes on. Or another analogy that has been on my mind lately is that the US (and their golbal elitist buddies) are in a game of hearts and they have decided they have a strong enough hand to "shoot the moon". There are a few high cards still unaccounted for though. My opinion is that now that the world sees what is planned, they will covertly sabotage those plans. American arrogance is in full bloom, and it aint pretty to the world audience.

nickel62Hipplewhite Great Post!#773176/3/02; 05:39:24

A lot of accurate insights in a short post, congrats.
nickel62Hipplebeck#773186/3/02; 05:40:11

Sorry about the mistake on your name.
Belgian@ Hipplebeck#773196/3/02; 06:25:52

Sir, do you think that the Russians will let the US get away with their conquest of ME cheap oil ? Do you think that Russia will accept that the US shall pump ME oil at the dollar's dictated price and value ? Than you (or the US) did not get the full meaning of the 9/11 message .
Warfare has taken another dimension : TERROR ! The Russia/Iranian ties are there for power balance. An all out US attack on the oil-fields with temporary rising POO and an euro-manoeuver to push the dollar under water (plus SM-crash), comes at a very difficult moment for the US !
How can you explain the US being confident of shooting to the moon.

The US conquest of ME-(Iranian) oil could be a tactic to avoid future oil for euro. Why should Russia be at the US's (oil) service ? Do you really think that all mini-nukes are safely locked up only to deter ? Don't forget the complicating Chechnya factor in the (islamic) equations.

Not that simple...isn't it Sir ?

Timbervision should read Interstate (sorry for confusion).

sector@Hipplebeck...The Oil Cards#773206/3/02; 06:38:14

Whipping Up Support for an Iraq War is a Bit tougher than Expected

Especially after the CIA's and FBI's stupendous terrorist bungling has raised questions that perhaps the last two Admins WANTED 9/11 [Or something like it] to happen.

"It's about oil" is a very good default answer to any current foreign policy question.

For thinking people, the really important answer to the oil question is gold.

Let's hope that the "Queen" falls on the appropriate chump.

Golden Bearsector (msg#: 77320)#773216/3/02; 07:08:36

It went further than that: On Fox News the other night, an FBI field agent was interviewed who said he had mounting evidence of a planned strike, and was told to stop investigating by his superiors - they DIDN'T want to know about it...

Also, the Naval Agent Mike Vreeland who wrote down on a piece of paper and handed it to prison officials in Canada 1 MONTH before the attacks, that the WTC and pentagon were targets. He tried to notify US Officials, and again, they didn't want to know! (

Why destroy the perfect excuse to invade Afghanistan and control the future route of Caspian Oil shipment to the US?

By the way, Mr Karzai, the Afghan leader, is a UNOCAL official...

InterstateAristotle and Belgian#773226/3/02; 07:15:54

May I begin with an apology for intruding in your exchange? I have great respect for your wisdom in the world of economics and I was quite interested in your ideas yesterday. This being a forum, I thought that one could add to a post, ask for clarification or even challenge it. I don't just come in and go. I am an avid reader here and post when I feel I have something of value to say or if I need clarification. My expertise in economics is non-existent, although, I am learning from the knowledge shared by the generousity of the posters here. I began my interest and collection of gold in the early '80s, but it was the result of gut feelings only. Now, I want to learn the machinations of the financial process.

I appreciate the time and thought you put into the clarifications for me. It was of great help and understanding. I shall continue to expand my
knowledge by reading here. I read a lot of books, so I am getting an historical perspective, but I want to know the significance of what is happening NOW. Thank you for aiding me in my quest.


JimboThanks, GoldnSilver2002#773236/3/02; 07:30:00

That's what I thought you meant, but just wanted to be sure I understood. Unfortunately, I find myself getting very paranoid these days over gold's performance. (Perhaps it's a collection of negative reactions I accumulated during the fiasco, when I lost money.) Last week, for example, when the POG was going up, several of my gold stocks went down (most notably, GFI). Then, at times when I least expect it, the same stocks soar. All this to say, I find it almost impossible to predict with any accuracy what gold investments will do day-to-day. One more question, please: why, when gold hits 354-360, will the "old boys of the cabal" possibly lose control, allowing gold to soar?
RobotGuyCharts, Data, Interpretation.#7732406/03/02; 08:00:02

By studying the historical patterns of gold spikes, I have noticed almost a semi-parabolic trend immediately before a rapid increase in the POG. By rapid, I mean over the course of lets say two weeks to one month to travel in the range of 40% higher than it's current level. I am no trained individual in these matters, more of a speculator than anything, but if you take a close look at all of the moderate to large spikes in your historical gold charts, you should be able to observe what I am speaking of. Perhaps this is a known pattern, and I am just regurgitating known facts, but I haven't been made aware of these facts other than my own observation.

The POG over the course of the last six to eight months would indicate that we are on the doorstep of a major POG increase!

RobotGuy, - - - Often wrong, but always willing to share!

Gandalf the WhiteJUMP SPOT, JUMP !!#773256/3/02; 09:17:40

Looks like the action is in NY again today !!
What will happen after HIGH NOON (NY time) today will tell the story of this WEEK. Like BB says, "Interesting Times"!

Around The CornerRe: Golden Bear (msg#: 77321)#773266/3/02; 09:29:14

SNIP: Over the ensuing months and throughout 2001, the FBI, CIA, and other U.S. intelligence agencies became increasingly aware that individuals known or suspected to be linked with bin Laden or other terrorists groups, had been slipping into the country. They also knew that suspected terrorists on the FBI's "watch list" were receiving flight training. And they knew that men on their "watch list" were holding late night meetings that were attended by other men who were being watched, and many of these men then attended yet other meetings at different locations with yet other men on the FBI's "watch list" as well as with men who would later carry out the 9/11 attacks.

In fact, a dozen different individuals that the FBI maintains on a "watch list" and who were under some form of surveillance, shared the same U.S. addressees and were in fact living with several of the 9/11 hijackers.

For example, eight of those on the FBI's watch list lived at the same address as two of the 9/11 hijackers: Hamza Alghamdi and Ahmed Alghamdi. All ten men shared a dormitory at Flight Safety International--a flight school in Vero Beach--and were training to be pilots. Hamza and Ahmed were on the jet that hit the south Tower of the World Trade Center.

Yet another certified pilot on the FBI's watch list shared an address in Daytona Beach with Waleed Alshehri, a hijacker on the flight that struck the north Tower of the World Trade Center. Also at that address: Saeed Alghamdi, a hijacker on the flight that crashed in Pennsylvania.

Waleed Alshehri and his brother Wail Alshehri, also shared yet another address with a woman living in Hollywood, Florida, who was also on the "watch list." And, she shared their surname: Alshehri.

A Coral Springs man who was also on the FBI's watch list shared the same address as Marwan Al-Shehhi and Mohamed Atta. Al-Shehhi and Atta piloted the commercial jets that struck the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center.

The FBI was not only aware that Mohamed Atta was in the U.S. and receiving flight training, but that he been implicated in previous terrorist attacks, and had met with a senior Iraqi intelligence officer. In fact, by law, Atta and his "cousin" Marwan, should have never been granted visas or allowed into the country; yet in the months prior to 9/11 they were allowed to continue their activities unhindered.

They were not alone. Several of the other hijackers had also been granted visas and allowed into this country in the weeks and months before 9/11 although they were known to be veterans of previous terrorist attacks. Salem Alhamzi and Khalid Al-Midhar were on a special terrorist-watch list given to Border Patrol and I.N.S. agents on August 21, 2001.

There were excellent reasons for keeping an eye on Khalid Al-Midhar and to prevent him from entering the country. The year before he had been videotaped meeting with one of the suspects in the Oct. 12, 2000 terrorist attack of the USS Cole. Yet, Khalid Al-Midhar had no difficulty entering the United States. Although the I.N.S. and Border Patrol had been alerted, Khalid Al-Midhar, a man known to have been associating with known terrorists, legally entered the United States on a business visa.

Salem Alhamzi also waltzed right in and did so in a "legal" manner. He had a business visa.

Despite the fact that Alhamzi and Al-Midhar were considered dangerous, they were allowed free entry into the U.S., and immediately set up housekeeping together at the Marriott Hotel in New York, which was listed as their official residence. Three weeks later, on September 11, Khalid Al-Midha and Salem Alhamzi would hijack American Airlines flight 77 and then crash it into the Pentagon.

The FBI, CIA, and Bush administration, not only had advanced and detailed information and then did nothing to prevent the 9/11 assault and murder of 3000 Americans, they tried to cover it up and then lied about it. END SNIP

I realize the author of the above has taken a slew of individual objective facts and pieced them together, resulting in what he sees as the logical reason why our multibillion dollar a year funded CIA/FBI "failed" to prevent the attacks on 9/11. The curious thing about this article is, the author didn't have to "jump through hoops" to reach his conclusion.

Friends, we are smack-dab in the middle of the most dangerous time in our nation's history.

Buy Gold and Silver, and be quick about it.

Cavan Man@sector concerning 9-11 #773276/3/02; 09:44:37

Not inconceivable that conditions for some sort of strike on US soil were made ripe. There is a very good, recent book by Robert Stinnett about the attack at Pearl. Coincidentally, the author served under GB in the USN during WWII. I digress....FDR's strategy to bring the US into the war against the Axis required the instigation of the attack on Pearl Harbor--an atrocious act "beyond the pale". From FOIA data recently de-classified, Stinnett lays out a compelling story in a non-judgmental context for high ranking US political/military complicity in the affairs leading up to 12-7-41. Does history really repeat itself? Regards...CM
NomadCBS Market Watch : Stock Market Crash In One Year ???#773286/3/02; 10:01:27

Snippit :

Vickers is an investment letter's investment letter. Many services use its data. Veteran Michael Burke of Investors Intelligence has just given his readers his interpretation of the Vickers indicator: "This week was the WORST reading since August 1986. and the previous four were the WORST readings since the Spring of 1993...The HUGE reading back in 8/86 foretold the Crash of 1987 and was one of the reasons we exited the market in August 1987, up over 40 percent for the year and stayed out till after the CRASH!"

This may sound odd, but Burke has explained that he looks at insider data on a year-ahead basis. "If they are buying now, it is bullish for a year from now. If they are selling, it is bearish for a year from now." Mark Hulbert confirms that Investors Intelligence was 100 percent cash during the 1987 Crash.

YGMNew Swiss Law..."No Gold Paper"#773296/3/02; 10:29:16

27: RS 951.11 Art. 65 (National Bank Law)
Summary: National Bank Law VII. Penal Provisions Art. 64 Art. 65a Art. 65 1 Anyone who in contravention of the provisions of Article 39 of the Federal Constitution issues bank notes or other equivalent monetary tokens, anyone who puts such bank notes or monetary tokens into circulation, shall be punishable by imprisonment or a fine; both punishments may be combined. 2 Gold certificates in the form of securities incorporating an ownership right or claim to minted or unminted gold and made out to the bear. . .
Size: 2K, created: May-08-02 16:02

National Bank Law
VII. Penal Provisions
Art. 64
Art. 65a

Art. 65
1 Anyone who in contravention of the provisions of Article 39 of the Federal Constitution issues bank notes or other equivalent monetary tokens, anyone who puts such bank notes or monetary tokens into circulation, shall be punishable by imprisonment or a fine; both punishments may be combined.

2 Gold certificates in the form of securities incorporating an ownership right or claim to minted or unminted gold and made out to the bearer or transferable as if they were bearer securities shall be deemed to be monetary tokens in terms of paragraph 1.

3 These criminal cases shall come under the jurisdiction of the Federal Court.


TownCrierStrive for a broader perspective#773306/3/02; 10:31:37

This should demonstrate why it is important for people to try to grasp the fundamentals of the big picture rather than focusing on the news of the moment -- the little picture.

With an understanding of the big picture, you can confidently establish a mid-term/long-term position without jumping back and forth in some wild attempt to react to the latest changing headlines.

Listed below is just an example of the frustrations that can be caused by the changing news of the "little picture". These two headlines were separated in time by only one hour.

(8:31) Dollar Rises Against Euro After Report Shows Growth in U.S. Manufacturing

(9:32) Dollar Falls Against Euro, Yen on Concern Investors Will Pull Out of U.S.

A broader perspective will help you understand which of these directional movements of the dollar represents the overall trend.

Call Centennial to establish your gold diversification strategy today.


YGM"Why No Fanfare"???.........Seems Strange....#773316/3/02; 10:34:31

Swiss SNB Sold 11.1 Tons Of Gold in 10-Day Period To May

Normally this news would be dragged out and made into a big negative for Gold buyers & Specs....What's Up???
Tommy PBush had everything to gain by allowing 9/11#773326/3/02; 10:34:41

You see folks like his dad before him, he also attacked a oil rich country. I don't know the specifics but Afganistan has roughly 10% of all the natural gas and 6% of oil (estimates) that has not been extruded from the ground. you see it was clear back in 09/11/2001 that this was well played out!Why did Isreal Prime Minister cancel his trip the day before? Why do you think the Russians fought in Afgan for 10 years?? Because they wanted the sand???? Why do think Putin/Bush met in Texas for a week? to discuss cattle? or oil and how they were going to split afganistan?
Why were so many Israeli intellegence officers caught in the U.S. The Bush and CIA admin needed a reason to go into afgan and implement there own government to start drilling for oil/n.gas

People everytime you read bush, you must also remember the word oil!

AristotleYGM -- Swiss Penalties on Gold Certificates#773336/3/02; 10:40:51

"Does it bode well for Gold ownership?" Does it??? Does it!!! IT DOES!!!!

My good man, to my eyes this is among the many looks of Free Gold gaining solid ground.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Gandalf the WhiteWOWSERS YGM !!! You get the websurfing AWARD today !!!#773346/3/02; 10:52:35

YGM (6/3/02; 10:29:16MT - msg#: 77329)
New Swiss Law..."No Gold Paper"

YGMAristotle...#773356/3/02; 10:55:06

'Big Smile' here..

Should have known that would get your attention first!
Yessiree...Only the "REAL" Thing will do..and the Swiss Gov.
say so!......YGM


YGMAhhhH Gandalf....#773366/3/02; 11:01:10

You're almost as fast as Ari.........

monetary tokens:........hmmmmm!! Green, Blue, Gold, Rainbow Fiats should fall in that category also........Maybe the Swiss are on to something :>} Gold & Silver Coin for the Entire realm Sir Michael....Let the Coin Pressing begin!
Clint HTommy P (6/3/02; 10:34:41MT - msg#: 77332)#773376/3/02; 11:05:23

Tommy, there are may reasons to disagree with the above post. Let's just go buy some more gold and pass on the rest. ;)
Tommy PClint H#773386/3/02; 11:19:45

WaveriderYGM#773396/3/02; 11:22:17

Re: Swiss Gold sales - the above link here at USAGold provides a good background to the Swiss selling 1300 tons of "excess" reserves. Cheers,

Black BladeThe Dollar Bubble by Stephen Roach (New York)#773406/3/02; 11:33:14


The post-bubble US economy has not been lacking in aftershocks. The collapse in business spending on information technology is at the top of the list. In close pursuit is the meltdown of the telecom sector. But not all of the excesses have been purged. Could the dollar bubble be next to pop?

Our valuation work on the US currency certainly points to a significant overhang. Stephen Li Jen's estimates suggest that the real effective exchange rate of the dollar was approximately 14% over-valued at the start of this year. He bases this conclusion on three measures of US economic performance relative to that of its trading partners -- productivity, terms of trade, and fiscal policy -- plus America's net foreign-asset position. The important point about this valuation exercise is that all four of these fundamental measures are now deteriorating (see his 16 May dispatch, "Four Strikes You're Out!") This underscores an even more painful reality -- that the dollar's valuation overhang is essentially a moving target that is likely to shift to the upside in the years ahead. That, in turn, implies that the recent bout of dollar deterioration -- approximately 3% on a trade-weighted basis so far this year -- has done little to bring the currency back down to earth. In other words, if there's a dollar bubble, it has yet to pop.

Black Blade: The USD has fallen back today. The equities markets are feeling the pinch as foreign investors are pulling out their investments in order to beat the decline on Wall Street and the deteriorating currency exchange rates. About the only positive sector lately has been Gold.

Black BladeCLOUDY FORECAST #773416/3/02; 11:43:32


June 3, 2002 -- Summer is not looking too good for investors in U.S. stocks. With corporate earnings still in the doldrums, a faltering economic recovery, ongoing concerns about terrorist threats, the danger of nuclear war between India and Pakistan and worldwide turmoil, U.S. stocks are expected to move only sideways this summer. There may, however, be highly volatile days with big ups and downs along the way. "News on Wall Street [is] not likely to convince the average investor that much has changed," said Donald Straszheim, founder of Straszheim Global Advisors. "Headlines like Adelphia are big market negatives." To make matters worse, there is nothing coming up on the economic or earnings calendar that could propel the market up.

Black Blade: It does not look good on Wall Street today. The DOW is down 112, the NASDAQ is down 36, and the S&P is off by 15.5 points. Even so, these market indices are grossly overvalued and poised for more drastic declines. There could be a rush of investment dollars seeking a "safe haven’ or as the financial media pundits are now saying – "a flight to quality" – Gold.

Tommy PFirst Enron now this ....mmmmmmmmmmmmmm#773426/3/02; 12:01:30

Strange don't you think??
EconoclastI don't usually post links to press articles but....#773436/3/02; 12:18:10

I think financial privacy is going to become even more important not only to us who already care but to the average person as they get tired of feeling like a suspect.

The Wealth of Kings--stable, secure, and PRIVATE

Black BladeRe: Tommy P#773446/3/02; 12:36:22

This is probably a trend. During the Great Depression there were a number of suicides, though not the typical fable of brokers doing the "swan dive" out of Wall Street skyscaper windows. Perhaps this is the new American version of Hari Kiri. Maybe he had no other options (as his probably expired worthless). Notice that the CEO's aren't the ones dying. Not that I am pushing any conspiracy ideas. Cheers!

- Black Blade

TownCrierWhither goes the dollar?#773456/3/02; 12:38:06

New York, June 3 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell for a fourth day in five against the euro and yen on concern investors will pull money out of the U.S. in favor of Europe and Japan.

Foreign investors have been buying U.S. assets partly based on expectations that U.S. standards for accounting and corporate governance were superior to other economies, [Bank of America Corp's Eric] Nickerson said. Since the bankruptcy of energy trader Enron Corp. ``people are starting to re-evaluate that,'' he said.

...the dollar has lost almost 6 percent of its value so far this quarter, falling a record four straight months against the euro.

Foreigners may hesitate to buy U.S. assets if they expect the currency will keep declining and erode the value of their investments.

The U.S. current account deficit ballooned to a record $417.4 billion in 2001, making the dollar vulnerable when international investors shift to other countries.

-----------(click URL for full text)---------

Bottom line: long-term trends are built not upon daily whims but upon fundamentals, and here we see a big one. The U.S. current account remains the elephant that somehow got invited to the dinner party.


EagleOneski#773466/3/02; 12:58:22

Oh yessssss! Some of us have been watching the nice break in silver above $5.00, just not the front-line debaters yet.
GraefinPOS#773476/3/02; 13:27:20

Been watching POS here too...and have been trying to find some good literature to WHY the big jump right now. Any clues anyone?? Glad I have silver as well as gold!
Peace, Love, and Silver Bars!

Black BladeBankers' boom valuations are attacked #773486/3/02; 13:35:04


US regulators are uncovering fresh evidence that bankers, like stock market investors, erred by embracing "new economy" valuation methods during the 1990s boom. The regulators are discovering large losses on loans secured by "enterprise value" - a form of collateral that boiled down to a company's expected value in a sale. Such calculations were typically based on the market values implied by recent mergers and acquisitions in a borrower's industry. This methodology became increasingly popular among bankers as deal prices soared. Some regulators warned bankers at the time that they should be demanding more tangible forms of collateral. They are now pointing to the rising losses as a lesson for lenders. "A lot of the loan losses you have seen banks take - and they are on the rise - are associated with this issue," said David Gibbons, who oversees credit issues for the Treasury agency involved in this review. "It's not like they are writing off hard assets."

Black Blade: Pro Forma? Operating Profits? Synthetic Leases? What next? – "Enterprise Value". These guys must just sit around all day dreaming up new ways to "cook the books". No wonder the stock markets are crashing and the US Dollar is weaker by the day. No one in their right mind would stay invested in these pigs.

BTW, notice the new Charles Schwab commercials slamming the Wall Street bankers and investment houses? (not that Schwab is an innocent player). They are really playing off the Henry Blogett and Mary Meeker "pump and dump" schemes. "Interesting Times"

Black BladeRe: Graefin - Silver#773496/3/02; 13:38:46

Silver is following Gold higher as well as the questionable supply available. Other than that Silver is rising on some of the same fundamentals as Gold - that is US Dollar weakness and the prospect of war in both the Middle East and Central Asia. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black BladeDollar Falls on Concern Investors Will Pull Money Out of U.S.#773506/3/02; 13:48:08


New York, June 3 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell for a fourth day in five against the euro and yen on concern investors will pull money out of the U.S. because of skepticism about companies' credibility. The U.S. currency declined with stocks after Tyco International Ltd.'s chairman resigned following a New York Times report that he's under criminal investigation for tax evasion.

Against a basket of currencies including the yen, euro, Swiss franc, British pound, Swedish krona and Canadian dollar, the dollar has lost almost 6 percent of its value so far this quarter, falling a record four straight months against the euro. Foreigners may hesitate to buy U.S. assets if they expect the currency will keep declining and erode the value of their investments. Along with concern about U.S. corporate accounting practices, investors say they are also leery of the U.S. because of the potential for further terrorist attacks. The U.S. current account deficit ballooned to a record $417.4 billion in 2001, making the dollar vulnerable when international investors shift to other countries.

Black Blade: TIMBER!!! Look at the stock indices falling off into the abyss in the last few minutes. Watch those foreigners go! I don't blame them though. We should pay attention to Gold and Silver tonight.

JCTexTommy P (6/3/02; 10:34:41MT - msg#: 77332)#773516/3/02; 13:48:08

I have known George Bush for 50 years, and it is obvious to me from your post's headline that you don't know him at all.

Let's talk about gold, oil, economics, etc; but there are other sites for that other kind of b.s.

JCTexTommy P (6/3/02; 10:34:41MT - msg#: 77332)#773526/3/02; 13:48:41

I have known George Bush for 50 years, and it is obvious to me from your post's headline that you don't know him at all.

Let's talk about gold, oil, economics, etc; but there are other sites for that other kind of b.s.

YGMWizard News.......... for Gandalf the "White"..........Wizard Patron Saint!#773536/3/02; 13:48:47


Sunday, 2 June, 2002, 13:35 GMT 14:35 UK

Magician priest wants patron saint of magic

By David Willey
BBC Rome Correspondent

*A priest who uses magic tricks to entertain his congregation has asked the Pope to name a patron saint of conjurers, magicians, and wizards.

Don Silvio performs magic tricks for his congregation

Don Silvio Mantelli, a Salesian priest from Turin, presented a magic wand to the Pope earlier this year and asked for the title to be given to a 19th Century Italian priest - Saint Giovanni Bosco.

*Don Silvio says that the Pope replied: "You'll need a lot of magic wands to change our world; but lets make a start with this one!"
"In Italian the word for a wizard - 'Mago' - is ambiguous," Don Silvio told me. "You can have good wizards and bad ones, just as you have white and black magic. We are on the side of 'white' magic, you understand."

*When he celebrates his annual magicians' mass next year Don Silvio hopes to announce that the Vatican has formally accepted Saint John Bosco as patron saint of the world's wizards.

JCTexBlack Blade (6/3/02; 13:48:08MT - msg#: 77350)#773546/3/02; 13:56:26

Looks like we are about to find out how slippery a slippery slope can be.

BoilermakerYGM -Swiss Gold#773556/3/02; 13:56:38

The Swiss have been selling gold steadily for about a year at an average rate of about 5 tons/week. The sales tend to ramp up with higher prices and then go down again with lower prices. They are a signator to the WA and cannot exceed their annual quota set by that agreement. What puzzles me is why they requested and were given the bulk of the WA quotas (which appears to be gold unfriendly) and then they write a new law that appears to be very gold friendly.

My only theory is that the Swiss CB is using the sales to channel the gold to bail out specific bullion banks from their paper positions before the SHTF. Is there any information who is buying the Swiss gold?

Maybe you or others could offer another theory.

Black BladeDollar approaches hour of reckoning #773566/3/02; 13:59:18


The main issue for the markets this week will be whether the US dollar can regain its footing after falling to 15-month lows against the euro. The dollar drew some support at the end of last week from strength in the Michigan consumer confidence index and impressive productivity growth figures for the first quarter. Dollar bulls will be hoping this week's non-farm payroll figures will help inject fresh optimism into the currency. The consensus forecast is for a rise of 60,000 in payrolls. But there is wide agreement in the foreign exchange market that the dollar's hour of reckoning is fast approaching.

Black Blade: Market indices are plunging in the last few minutes. Foreign investors are reportedly fleeing the US markets en masse. Meanwhile the US Dollar is poised to sink much lower. I would suspect that there could be some government intervention, however, the trend is definitely lower. It is quite amusing that on CNBC, anchors Joe Kernan and Maria Bartiromo are crying that the market needs to hurry and close for the session.

RobotGuyTownCrier - - - Are we an 'event' driven economy?#773576/3/02; 13:59:22

After reading your earlier post about trends, and hasty decision making, it got me to pondering.

It is evident that many know gold exists, and it seems apparent that some even know of it as a reliable investment umbrella, but relatively speaking, but in North America, we are a small percentage as compared to other regions of the world.

Is it that North Americans have developed into a society where it takes a major catastrophe or development before we make the decisions we've been pondering for great lengths of time? Do we need a trigger of sorts?

With all of the support gold hes been receiving publicly lately, I would think that the hasty decision making, and investor uncertainty period would be over, and that we would begin to see a strong interest in gold without the uncertainty.

Gold has risen in value relatively gradually over the course of the last few months, whereas other investment areas are see-sawing.

I guess the real question I have is - - - Why as North Americans have we pushed off gold as a commodity, and useless investment, and why do we continue to feel this way after gold continues to prove itself in front of our very eyes?

pondering RobotGuy.

The HoopleWall Street freaking out#773586/3/02; 14:07:50

Foreign dollar holders must be disturbed by today's huge selloff on Wall Street. Could bode well for gold tomorrow? Electric utility suicides are just another sorry chapter in yet another corrupt industry. A business friend of mine in the mobile home repo business said his repo's are off 50%. The reason? Bankers told him they are trying to "help the economy" and go easy on them. Yeah, right. Just another SHTF situation getting ready to come unglued.
barnacle billGtRumorsof Gold#773596/3/02; 14:12:33

The Quick Silver

Yesterday at the Canterbury Park Racetrack, 9th race was won by GtRumorsofGold. Had you bet one ounce of gold on GtRumors you would have collected $1056.

Twelve-to-one longshot;TheQuickSilver came in fourth.Had you bet an ounce of silver on that, you would have lost about five bucks.

There are many ways to ride the Gold Bull!

Black BladeConsumer optimism fading #773606/3/02; 14:14:31


ANN ARBOR, Mich., June 3 (UPI) -- Consumer optimism faded in May though the majority surveyed for the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment said they still expect the recovery to continue without interruption for the rest of the year. The index, which was released Monday, found consumers expect the economic recovery to slow and jobs to remain scarce. The index rose to 96.9 in May from 93.0 in April. The May 2001 reading was 92.0. About a third of consumers reported their financial situation had worsened, up from 20 percent at the start of 2000. And though consumers expect income increases later in the year, they're anticipating an increase in inflation to 2.7 percent.

Black Blade: I sense that many consumers are in for a very rude awakening. The "Bone Pile" continues to grow higher as companies desperate search for ways to cut costs or even squeak out a profit. As always, get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, stash enough cash for several months expenses, and get started on a nonperishable food and basic goods program. We live in "Interesting Times".

YGMBoilermaker....#773616/3/02; 14:23:25

Swiss Gold Sales....

I think your theory is basicaly correct in some instances but not with the Swiss CB sales. With regards to bailing out B Banks (or Lessees for that matter) I think when these sales were formulated there was no real fear of (Gold) Loans or Hedges going underwater and whenever Gold poked it's nose up these same sales (and other CB sales) were trotted out for the media talking heads to promote. Now I'm mystified as to why no media hype?

I myself believe if "Truth be Known" these sales (and possibly others) are meant to put the physical back into the hands of old money such as Rothschilds among others. If one knew who held the most voting shares on various Central Banks that are selling Gold and how they voted we'd have some answers. If only we could follow the trail thru the land of smoke and mirrors huh! Like trying to track a trout up a muddy stream and only a Sackett can do that.......YGM

**Waverider...Thanks, I read it some time ago.....

TownCrierUSAGOLD is pleased to welcome a new addition to our lineup#773626/3/02; 14:33:18

Jon Warner has agreed to offer up his keen insights and observations of the markets in reviews titled "The Afternoon Gold Report".

Today marks Mr. Warner's first contribution in this capacity, and we're sure you will benefit from his long experience in the mining and energy sectors.

Click the URL above to visit the Daily Market Report & Live News page, where you will find Jon's commentary in the place where MK was -- until recently -- lately seen in deepest contemplation... upon a hammock between two trees.

Welcome aboard, Jon!


InterstateJCTex#773646/3/02; 14:48:46

Which George Bush do you know and in what context?
In my readings of historical finances concerning gold and silver, I have consistently come across the name Bush. I do not know any of the Bush family, and I lived in Texas for 10 years. But it seems that they have many positive actions for gold, silver and oil and a few negative ones. Am I only to accept the positive and ignore the negative? Can we skew history to our liking? I am not speaking for or against your friend, George Bush. I just don't see how we can pick and choose what we put in our history.


adminLet's stay away from petty political bickering. . .#773656/3/02; 15:17:13

Criticizing the current administration for its policies is one thing -- I don't agree with everything the Bush administration does either -- but when the discussion degenerates to unsubstantiated, ad hominem, baseless attacks on the integrity and character of the President of the United States in times like these, then I believe somebody ought to step up and put a cork in it.

After all we are a public forum being read by thousands daily. Do we want to be known for this sort of thing?

BelgianOne day.....#773666/3/02; 15:33:40

....The euro has to make public his alliance with Gold !?
The ambitious euro currency as a Gold friend and Mentor.
The euro as good as Gold and Gold as good as the euro. VOG reflected in a POG that is a reflection on the quality of euro-management ! Don't mess with the euro or people (ECB/BIS) will adjust the price of his closest associate, Gold. Euroland's CBs will not be allowed to mess with their remaining Goldreserves in their respective National Banks.
This new euro-Gold, adaptive standard must be promoted sooner or later with some firm announcements on Gold policy (policies) by ECB.

The price of the valuable Gold will always trend upwards as the euro will also expand at a faster rate than the diciplinarry correct rate. An intrinsic error in every currency, printed by any politician. Once Gold is generally accepted as the ultimate controller of the euro...people/institutions, will make the direct association between both (euro and Gold).

The whole purpose of this concept is the creation of as much *stable* *growth* as possible with the appropiate speed of expansion. No falsified quantum leaps forward anymore and avoidance of backclashes from that clumsy (opportunistic) management. The latest two generations grew too fast !

The dollar never came up with a workable Gold standard alternative and made Gold available for that tiny minority that knew his Value. The *Western* general public is difficult to educate and therefore not under any suspicion to suddenly start accumulating Gold for reasons of currency fatique or distrust. That good old Gold reflex was anesthesized with easy price-control. The euro architects, cooperated with this general perception building...because they had something very different in mind.

Have a look at the POG in euro and see how POG and euro exchange rate (versus dollar), rise in tandem. From the low of 245€ ('99) to 342€ today and €/$ from 0,85 to 0,934!!!
Isn't that nice for Eurolanders and sympathisants ?

Today the Belgian private (!) business-channel (Z) on tele, announced loudly that Gold starts to be re-discovered and will include a POG ticker in euro soon !

Let us translate TG's CPM-archives into Chinese/Russian and Arabic, fo them to spread the theory(ies). MK might expand his fine business overthere too !

BoilermakerLet's stay away from petty political bickering. . .#773676/3/02; 15:36:00

BrahmsPaper Gold Silver Downunder#773686/3/02; 16:13:38

Down here the NZ and OZ dollars are both out performing Gold at the moment. Especially the NZ dollar which is racing away. Paper Cash seeking a S. Pacific haven?

Gentlemen if you are interested in Freedom in a land without paper currency then we are going to have to get busy. Hiding in the hills will just get us another establishment with its fingers in the till.

have you got a political movement whose policies are
1. Freedom
2. No taxes
3. Gold based currency?

We have not. Every party is firmly in the establishment.

I'm off to buy some silver to add to the gold hoard....

Old YellerWhere we're going#773696/3/02; 16:28:55

In Mannfm11's opinion.Still a lot of air left in market valuations, alot if wealth in jeopardy.
Cavan ManFEDEX to pay 5% quarterly dividend#773706/3/02; 16:57:02

Now, there's a novel idea. Ben Graham would be pleased.
Cavan ManToyota in Europe#773716/3/02; 16:59:00

Announced today they will be sourcing in the EU almost exclusively and remitting to suppliers in EURO.

CM comment: Bye Bye Sterling.

Cavan ManEl Paso Energy#773726/3/02; 17:00:31

Their Sr. VP and Treasurer committed suicide today. Saw story on CNN this afternoon in Detroit.
JCTexInterstate#773736/3/02; 17:29:57

I am not so stupid as to pick and choose what to believe based on any friendship, desire, or wish.....or who I know or don't know.

I took exception to what was said earlier ["Bush had everything to gain by allowing 9/11"], and I stand by my reaction.

That is an insinuation that is repugnant at best.

I stand by what I said.

Solomon WeaverCIBC raises estimates on gold prices for 2002 and 2003#773746/3/02; 18:09:05

Market Report -- Short Stories (ABX, KGC, NEM, GLG)
May 31, 2002 10:36:00 AM ET

CIBC on Gold : CIBC Wrld Mkts is raising its '02 gold price forecast to $315/oz from $300/oz and '03 to $350/oz from $325/oz. Firm believes all of the fundamentals are in place for a sustained rally in bullion; firm's option value methodology can be used to explain the current euphoria in gold shares; firm believes the market is including out-of-the-money resources that were previously discounted. Firm upgraded Barrick Gold (ABX 21.96 +0.01) to BUY from Hold rating with price target of $27 based on valuation despite hedge position; downgraded Kinross Gold (KGC 2.61 +0.05) to BUY from Strong Buy rating with price target of $3.25 based on share price appreciation; firm's top picks are Strong Buy-rated Newmont Mining (NEM 30.85 +0.18) and Glamis Gold (GLG 9 +0.09). is the leading Internet provider of live market analysis for U.S. Stock, U.S. Bond, and world FX market participants.
Read other Short Story articles

Golden BearJCTex (msg#: 77373)#773756/3/02; 18:49:02

"That is an insinuation that is repugnant at best."

Sir JCTex,

may I enquire as to what makes it so repugnant? Do you believe that politicians of today are in geeneral patriots? If so, why are our western societies in the mess they are in?

Why do we see politicians constantly telling their people to tighten their belts, while they legislate pay rises for themselves.

Why do we see deals done by beaurocrats to let the likes of Merrill Lynch and Enron off the hook with fines and no personal convictions or jail time, when if you or I were to be involved in something similar 1/1,000,000th the scale, we would get a prison sentence?

The days of the true patriots existed with those visionaries who drafted your constitution, not these parasites who pretend to uphold it and only tear it to pieces day by day with contempt.

The true patriots of today are the likes of Reg Howe and Ron Paul, not these pathetic excuse for leaders like Clinton and Bush...

JCTexGoldenBear#773766/3/02; 19:25:33

This will be the last response from me on this subject because I am becoming a part of the very thing that I do NOT want this site to become: a damned mud-slinging petty-assed political forum.

Golden, you and I probably agree [100%+] on just about everything you mentioned including politicians, Enron, Reg Howe, Ron Paul, Merril Lynch, etc., etc., etc.

In the case of GWB, I disagree strongly with the insinuation made earlier. To me, to think that he would kill or stand by while thousands of Americans were murdered is beyond impossible. I've known him too long, too well.

That doesn't mean that I agree with everything he does, politically. It does mean that his integrity is in tact with me, I'm glad he is there instead of some of the others.

If you want to think the man is a murderer; then you & I are just going to have to disagree on that one subject, but we do NOT have to discuss it here.

That's it, I'm through with the conversation. I stand where I stood. You stand where you want.

goldquestSearching For Terrorists In Your Bank Account#773776/3/02; 19:30:06

Something to consider when our gold investments start paying off. Physical in possession, looks more and more attractive!
JCTexViruses on the net#773786/3/02; 19:32:56

If any of you do not have some sort of antivirus program on your computer. Get one NOW!!

We took two hits last week.

We have been hit, tonight, by three different emails containing the Klez virus. Two were from people that we don't know. One was from someone we do know.

Golden BearJCTex (msg#: 77376)#773796/3/02; 19:36:31

Agreed Sir,

and let us continue to share our love of gold and enjoy the fruits of our endeavours...


WaveriderBlack Blade#773806/3/02; 19:44:03

Gosh, I return from the gym to find all sorts of suprises...I trust that "The Morning Blade" will continue? Congratulations...but please don't succumb to the same fate as MK....once in a hammock they're difficult to get out of! Cheers,

slingshotSummer Doldrums#773816/3/02; 19:56:57

Just another excuse?

The stock market took a dip today and summer is upon us. Lots of money on the sidelines they say. I'm going to stick my neck out and say the next excuse for a downturn in the market is everyone is going on vacation. Yepper,they are taking a breather and let the market run its course. Never mind about all that legal stuff at the major corporations doors. You can hear the investors saying, Going to FIJI tonight for a few days everything will be alright. The dollar is going down. Stocks going down and Gold going up. Plus all the other things happening, I doubt very seriously that many are going to stray far from home.

On another note. Just recieved my ACME Mercury Rocket Kit.
Not alot of creature comfort but they said it would get me
To Da Moon. That's where Gold is going? :o)


Black BladeMarket mover: Silver#773826/3/02; 19:59:51


Gold may have been grabbing the market headlines in recent weeks, but silver has made equally striking advances. After steep falls in January this year, the precious metal has remained highly volatile, but the past fortnight has seen silver leap from strength to strength. On Friday, the spot price in London climbed through the important psychological barrier of $5/oz, to close at a two-year high.

There is a global mismatch of silver supply and demand. Industrial use outstrips combined mine production, recycling and government sales by 16 per cent. The solution has historically rested in the hands of private investors, who hold around 400 million ounces. Also at work on the silver markets were growing concerns over the dollar, which has tumbled hard against the euro and the yen. Commodity buyers are now finding that they can build large stocks of dollar-denominated metals at relatively cheaper prices.

Black Blade: Word is getting out about the precious metals. Rumor has it that physical silver supply is getting very tight.

Black BladeRe: Waverider#773836/3/02; 20:04:18

Thanks, I will try to keep an "ear to the ground" and post what is interesting. I too just got back from the gym - my sore legs, and arms, and ..... well you get the picture. Cheers!

BTW, is everyone watching the POG and USD action tonight? Asia is moving Gold higher and Japanese government intervention is not having much effect on the USD.

- Black Blade

Gandalf the WhiteCongrats to Dr. BB !!! #773846/3/02; 20:32:39

Khop Khun Krup

JCTexGolden Bear#773856/3/02; 20:39:09

Thanks, Golden. I'll be glad to talk about it by email or phone if you like. Just not here.

This is too good a site to get it all slimey with political stuff.

Best to you.

Troy Boymonetary bases#773866/3/02; 20:41:32

So as this whole metals mania heats up, and we have many indicators why, should we all sit back and wait for a new government sponsored medium of exchange?
Why should we wait for another politically founded currency when we have the technology today for private gold based currencies?

JCTexBlack Blade (6/3/02; 20:04:18MT - msg#: 77383)#773876/3/02; 20:45:03

Stay out of that gym. We need for you to get that stuff above 330, tonight, and then you have to be sharp first thing in the morning, too.

I keep coming back to see if maybe, just maybe, this time, etc.

Doggone, it's nice to be on this side of the thing for a change!!

Golden BearTroy Boy (msg#: 77386)#773886/3/02; 21:02:48

Why should we wait for another politically founded currency when we have the technology today for private gold based currencies?

Sounds like the stirrings of a revolution to me...

Go Gold!, Go Goldbugs!

PS. Just ordered my copy of Gold Wars, can't wait to sink my teeth into it...

Troy BoyPolitical slime#773896/3/02; 21:04:30

I am a little backwards I guess, but I am slightly confused.
This is a gold site, and all the members who monitor and post to this site watch the movements of precious metals. Well the cause of the movements today is founded in the POLITICAl manipulation of the world. From South Africa to the good ole USA.
Now it seems the good ole USA's citizens have now come under a police state. What?
Tex have you read the PATRIOT Act and now the money laundering laws put in place by POLITICIANS, signed by GWB?
So how can you have a forum like this, and not discuss politics when the politicians and bankers, the leaders of the sheeple, are running the world.
We are a select few who are paying attention.
I agree with Black Blade. In fact 8 months ago I took his advice and began ordering my rations and energy supplies.
In fact I guess I have been seeking even greater asylum by putting my home up for sale as it has increased in value over the last three years by over 125%. (Florida waterfront) Although I think it is insane, there are those paying. I hope to join the rest of the top income bracket and expatriat as the US is out of control.
Thank goodness the ones who are paying attention are ahead of the curve. It is through this wonderful medium of exchange that we can help understand what is happening around the world around the clock.
Sometimes the truth does hurt.

Black BladeInteresting-Scary Chart#7739006/03/02; 21:14:21

All together now: "The bear went over the mountain, the bear went over the mountain, the bear went over the see what he could see"

Japanese intervention on Yen selling and US Dollar buying is having no effect tonight. Just shoveling Japanese taxpayer cash into the furnace.

- Black Blade

Golden BearTroy Boy (msg#: 77389)#7739106/03/02; 21:24:05

Political slime

I was thinking the same, but my diplomatic side got the better of me, and wanted to keep things civil amongst us all...

Cheers, and long live the freedom to have our own opinions and the ability to voice them!

Black BladeBOJ spent oodles to stem yen's rise#7739206/03/02; 21:24:24


NEW YORK (Kyodo) The Bank of Japan spent between $8 billion and $10 billion in foreign exchange markets to stem the yen's surge Friday in one of the biggest single-day interventions in recent years, dealers said. The scale of the intervention matches a dollar-supporting intervention carried out by the BOJ after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, signaling a strong determination by Japanese monetary authorities to halt the yen's rapid rise, they said. Dealers said the scale of the dollar-buying by the BOJ since Wednesday comes close to 2 trillion yen, making it possible the central bank's intervention in the April-June quarter will surpass a record 3.2 trillion yen in the July-September quarter last year. The BOJ also stepped into currency markets on May 22 and 23.

Black Blade: A good companion article to the USD chart. The intervention has short term effects to the tune of about 24 hours at best. Not a very good return on investment.

mikalForum's INO Quotes looking...#7739306/03/02; 21:39:50

GOOD from where I sit, brave knights. Starting with the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) index- closing in on 105! This alone is enough to raise any fat cat's pulse, and slickened hairs needless to say. This makes them spit out further funds, derivatives, and megabyte entries, to passify the threatening adversary. Ditto, the bond prices (shown is the 10 yr. US T-bill), which are in a much larger market to control. The T-bills are a sleeping giant, attracting safe haven & pension funds and a part of diversified portfolios worldwide, including governmental, institutional, and individual. The more they attract, the higher the price, and the lower the rate of return. These rates rise of course when the Central Bank (Fed, F(ed)eral (P)reserve) raises the prime rate, the rate charged to member banks to borrow. The recent trading range of 4.9- 5.4% should succumb so quickly, that the cat may have the media's tongue, diverting attention somewhere like energy, nukes, or the latest television spectacles. The dollar and gold, keep pace in opposite directions, like GATA'S enveloping horn, the famous Zulu chief's brilliant battle stategem.
Black BladeAfghanistan, Pakistan, Turkmenistan sign pipeline agreement #7739406/03/02; 21:42:28


ISLAMABAD - Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Pakistan signed an agreement for the construction of a US$2 billion, 1,500-kilometer gas pipeline from Daulatabad via Afghanistan to Gwadar. Musharraf said they discussed construction of the pipeline, the development of communication and railway infrastructure, and the enhancement of trade and economic cooperation not commensurate with the close bonds among them. The Daulatabad-Gwadar gas pipeline provides the shortest route for the supply of gas from the Central Asian countries to the outside world, especially the Far East and Japan.

Black Blade: Now to see if anyone can hold it if it is ever built. The region is a hotbed of terrorism and antagonism with dueling warlords and bandits. Someone will have to protect the pipeline. I wonder who that will be?

mikalActual CRB index...#7739506/03/02; 21:48:25

Moving in on 205, not 105.
goldquest@Black Blade Ref: Pipeline#7739606/03/02; 21:52:40

The bribes and payoffs will be tremendous. It will be a new source of income for the warlords. A steady paycheck coming in, NOT to blow up the pipeline. Of course the consumer will pay for all.
The Hoople$330.00 August gold!#7739706/03/02; 22:43:13

If these gains hold overnight tomorrow's COMEX could be about as much fun as chewing tin foil for the Cabal. I'll bet the Tyco shareholders joining the ranks of "decrease your wealth 30% overnight" club will have a nasty aversion to paper. Long gold, short paper. It's that simple.
Black BladeCalifornia loses appeal over power crisis#7739806/03/02; 22:56:13


WASHINGTON -- California lost a Supreme Court appeal today over Gov. Gray Davis' seizure of electricity contracts at the height of a power crisis in which the state suffered rolling blackouts and sky-high energy prices. North Carolina-based Duke Energy sued the governor last year, alleging that Davis illegally took control of the long-term contracts. The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals agreed, ruling 2-1 that Davis did not have the authority to take over en estimated $200 million in contracts because Congress has not granted the states such rights in energy matters. The California power market went haywire in late 2000. The price of electricity soared and the state experienced rolling blackouts. Davis declared a state of emergency in January 2001, and then used his emergency powers to commandeer future energy contracts the following month. Davis said he acted to prevent the power from being resold to buyers outside California. "Even a minor loss of electricity could have resulted in further blackouts," the state told the Supreme Court.

Black Blade: Looks like the state will just have to raise rates and/or taxes to pay the piper. That's what happens when politicians re-regulate industry without thinking. The state must still address the issues of new power generation, power plant construction, and infrastructure upgrades.

Black BladeThar She Blows!!!#7740006/03/02; 23:02:51

There it is. Spot Gold over $330.00/oz. and the USD sub 111. Looks like a run to $340 is in order.

- Black Blade

WaveriderPOG#7740106/03/02; 23:11:38

It's going to be one heck-of-a party at Canada Place in Vancouver this week!
Graefin"Thar She Blows..."#7740206/03/02; 23:28:44

Black Blade..."Thar she blows" crack me up!
- Gräfin
PS...thanks for the earlier silver update!

VoyagerWaverider#7740406/04/02; 00:02:09

I am also going to Vancouver tomorrow.
Christian(No Subject)#774066/4/02; 00:35:11

I feel that a shattering stock market crash that will devastate the country is set to strike. FED easing has been a sweeping success for getting people more into debt. But in terms of its effects on real GDP, it is an outright disaster. It is the world wide criminal plundering via dollarization that keeps the U.S. economy going. Big money is being made by huge short positions. The Carlyle group runs this country and has large short positions on major indexes. I think the dollar will fall. A war will start after the fall. I feel this war will then change the flow of money back to USA. This entire episode is to get excess $'s out of circulation. With money gone to money heaven or into the shorters hands, fewer dollars will exist to make payments on ever more debt. I feel money will get very hard to get just like it did in the 30's. Derivatives are set to wipe out banks. Banks will soon be forced to call in all outstanding loans. Whatever money still in circulation will be used in an attempt to save the roof over home owners heads. Government of the people, by the people, for the people will be government of the U.S.Corporation, by the U.S.Corporation and for the U.S.Corporation. That corporation is the FED who already owns 78.1% of all assets.------ I wish people would look at who owns ITERA. That alone will explain what is going on. I feel the Russian economy will collapse sometime the next two years and a large mass of people will head for the European borders. Massive amounts of money is going into ITERA. Those funds are $'s. -- For many U.S.corporations are getting looted. Never- never bet on anything you can't afford to loose. On the other hand, if you are positioned correctly to go bankrupt, you have the stockholders as unknowing silent partners. Somebody has to hold the empty bag shell to make possible for the insiders to loot what is left to loot. I still feel that Bin Laden is working for the U.S. After all he is a part owner of ITERA. So is the Carlyle group. ITERA is buying into U.S. and other countries oil assets. ITERA, unlike Enron has real assets, is privately held and is expanding.
TownCrierSorry Topaz. How about MRCI or INO instead? (both are linked atop this page)#774076/4/02; 00:57:44

The source you posted for those gold price quotes is a gold selling agent. As you know, Centennial pays the bills for development and ongoing operation of this site, and it would be inappropriate to let competitors enjoy this avenue for free exposure and/or promotion at the host's expense. That said, on with the show...


TopazTC#774086/4/02; 01:25:56

No worries mate, just hard to find a ready reference to Gold in the major currencies (live) on one any suggestions?
I think it's important not to lose sight of the fact that PoG is not necessarily jumping out of it's skin EVERYWHERE...(yet)

TownCrierThe Russian factor#774096/4/02; 01:39:43,3523,1099786-6094-0,00.html

(Business Day) -- RUSSIAN gold mines say that production is accelerating so fast, they may surpass 170 tons this year.

...Russia was ranked fifth on the world table of gold producers, well behind SA, the US and Australia. It is now closing on Indonesia, which ranks fourth with annual production of 175 tons.

Russian government figures released last week indicate that in the first four months to April 30, gold production rose overall by 43% (7,2 tons), compared with the same period last year.
-----------(click URL for full text)----------

A bottom line speculation: As a significant gold player on the world scene, it seems reasonable that, all other things being equal, the Russian government would without much difficulty choose to align itself with a neighboring currency bloc built around a monetary structure that is built to survive -- if not thrive -- on gold rising in price as naturally as a nominally growing economic realm can be expected to outrun the rate of new metal production.

For gold to fall into place in such a scheme, first there must be the "one time price adjustment" as foretold by ANOTHER, followed by the ever-rising price trend that one should expect against a world of floating, inflating currencies that can and will outpace gold supply at every turn. For producing nations, this is a boon for the internal economy as well as for the favorable export impact on balance of trade.


TownCrierTopaz, I hear you loud and clear#774106/4/02; 01:49:00

This is a resource that I have found to be quite handy over the years for quick and easy conversions of a gold ounce into nearly any currency you can contemplate. Just select "gold ounce" from the first dropdown menu, and then select your desired pricing unit from the second menu. Presto! POG anywhere you like.

There are fancier tools out there, like Pacific Plot, but none are quicker or simpler than this. Give it a go...


skiGraefin .... EagleOne .... Black Blade #77349#774116/4/02; 02:20:20

What's up with silver? Perhaps the above link will give us some insight. A quote from the above editorial by silver analyst David Morgan, "The smart money is moving into gold, but the SMARTEST money is moving into silver."

Black Blade #77349 "Silver is following gold higher ...."

Sir Blade, according to Bloomberg TV, over the past 5 trading days, gold is up 1.37% and silver is up 3.88% My conclusion is thus: It is silver that is leading gold! In fact, the numbers indicate that silver is going up nearly THREE TIMES FASTER during this particular period. Yes, I am sure that there will be time periods when gold may be the best performer. However, all of the facts that I have reviewed suggest that silver will EASILY win this contest over most time frames.

off to the races....

Black BladeRe: ski - Silver#774126/4/02; 02:41:51

You may have missed this article I posted last night (see link). The news reports that there is both a severe Silver shortage in the works (as does Puplava, Morgan, etc.) and other market makers who believe that Silver is tracking Gold higher. I report on both ideas.

As you may know I say that it is good to own both Gold and Silver. Why not accumulate both? BTW, I have a nice collection of uncirc. slabbed Morgans as well as Silver rounds and bars. I am not averse to holding Silver. I also have Platinum Maple Leafs, and of course my Gold Liberties, assorted Gold coin, and bullion. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black BladeGold Higher and USD Plummets#774136/4/02; 03:00:58

Gold is still hanging in above $330/oz. in Europe, the USD is plunging to well below 111 and petroleum prices are higher. I am still "STRONGLY BULLISH" on Gold, unlike certain Gold analysts. If $330/oz. holds up for a couple of hours beyond the NY open we could see some fireworks with strong short covering.

- Black Blade

Black BladeWhy Pakistan might turn to nukes#774146/4/02; 03:13:25

A regional showdown between India and Pakistan has riveted world attention for weeks because of the risk that the conflict could go nuclear.


NEW DELHI AND WASHINGTON – Officially, at least, both India and Pakistan say that chances of their current tensions escalating into a possible nuclear war are "unthinkable," "unlikely," and in the words of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, "insanity." Yet wars seldom follow a neat plan. Military analysts say there are several conventional-warfare scenarios that could lead to a South Asia nuclear war. "It is very easy to envision scenarios under which this conflict does go nuclear, but they begin at the same premise: that there is a major ground war, and Pakistan is losing," says William Lind, a military analyst at the conservative Free Congress Foundation in Washington. The big question, and the essential "firebreak," he says, is not whether either country uses nuclear weapons or not, but the possibility of "using nuclear weapons symbolically versus massive use to flatten cities."

Black Blade: In my opinion it would be very easy for a war between Pakistan and India to go nuclear. Obviously Pakistan could never hope to last long in a conventional war. So nuclear weapons are almost certain to be used.

NomadHousing / Pipeline#774156/4/02; 03:25:47

Troy Boy : Black Blade

There is no doubt in my mind that the true crash in the US (and world economy) will not occur until the housing bubble pope with a big bang.

A little more than tne years ago my sister bought her house in colorado for about $ 65 K. Over a period of time they paid off their mortgage as fast as possible and then sold their house for $ 140 K, turned around and bought another newer house in the same town which is now worth about $ 250K. Last fall they asked me for advice and I pointed out to them that if they sold their house they could almost retire, as there are places in the US that are very cheap to live, and my brother in law is always complaining about his work.

I think somtime very soon, by this fall certainly the bubble will have burst and in another 5-10 years that house will be below 100K, probably near $50K. Almost everyone will stand like a deer in the headlights as the housing market crumbles like the NAZ did in the last two years.

I have already become an expat immediately after the Y2K event and it has been one of the best decisions of my life. My job is easy, my savings are going up, my health is better and the lifestyle is good. And bottom line is : I am much ,much happier watching all the various events unfold with the benefit of distance to shield me from all that current and future unpleasantness. Like watching a train wreck in slow motion ...

I also find it QUITE interesting that one of the VERY first things the new Afghani govt does is to OK the building of a pipeline. We (USA) is certainly getting our money's worth out of the 'War on Terror'.

My advice : watch the housing market for the beginning of the really really bad times ... and not coincidentally it will also be the time when gold explodes. This run up is nice of course. But it's just the beginning IMHO ...


Black BladeAsian and European Markets are soaked in a Sea of Red#774166/4/02; 03:28:22

Markets are currently getting pummeled in Europe and US market indices are solidly in the red. It appears that at these levels, we could see more downside in the markets when NY trading opens. Surprisingly the European and Asian markets have plummeted on "good volume". Lately trading volume has been rather light in most all markets. It now appears that investors have made the decision to get out of the bloodbath following various accounting and corporate scandals, and dubious corporate earnings reports. Will US investors "run like the blazes" today? So far all indications suggest that is a likely possibility. We may see a rush of short covering in Gold if the price remains above $330/oz. well into the NY open. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

Black BladeRe: nomad - Housing Bubble#774176/4/02; 03:38:10

I tend to agree for the most part. I had expected the "Housing Bubble" to pop by now, however, I also think that perhaps many consider real estate as a hard asset worth holding as the markets crash. Perhaps that is the reason that the "Housing Bubble" remains inflated. I think that we may be near the time when all these markets really get beaten up. It looks like a move into PMs is a good move right now. Even the other so-called safe stocks are getting banged up these days. Even the "widows and orphan" stocks like utilities are dicey these days. Cheers!

- Black Blade

WAC (Wide Awake Club)@Black Blade, Nomad, Troy Boy - Another view of the housing bubble#774186/4/02; 04:07:55

Why should the housing market crash. Traditionally, the prefferred method of cooling the housing market is a sharp rise in interest rates - double digit. However, there is another method that can be used and most houseowners will not even be aware that their asset as been devalued. This method is through currency devaluation. If you have a property that is today worth 100K in local currency(USD, STG etc), and the local currency experiences a 30% downward correction against the euro (since this we all believe will be the new reserve currency), then your property as effectively been devalued by 30%. This is even more clear in the case of the UK which will definately be in the euro block quite soon. In the last 6 weeks alone, STG as gone through a 5% devaluation against the euro. That means the property value as already been devalued by 5%, and nobody as noticed, no complaints.
IMHO, the coming property devaluation will relatively painless. The protection against this devaluation is to release as much of the equity in the property as possible, and open an interest-bearing euro acccount and of course, also speak to MK!

Black BladeRussian Oil Priced In Euros?#774196/4/02; 04:11:01

Glenn Stevens of Gain Capital on CNBC just announced a rumor that Russia is considering pricing oil in Euros. If so, maybe OPEC won't be too far behind.

- Black Blade

GraefinNomad Black Blade...Housing bubble...#774206/4/02; 04:11:58

Don't forget that mortgage rates are at their lowest in a wery wery wery long time. Once interest rates begin to rise, which we all know they will, look out housing! My guess is when that catalyst hits, house prices will plummet. People are maxed out on credit, mortages and 2nd mortgages. What happens when their "easy credit money" is gone and it's time to pay the fiddler???
- Gräfin

SteveHMan, BB, you beat me to it!#774216/4/02; 04:14:22

Black Blade got another great scoop. I couldn't believe my ears. "There is an unconfirmed rumor coming out of Russia that they are considering valuing their oil in Euros."

That is what I believe the currency trader said on CNBC when asked about dollars and gold.

Black BladeBay Area buyers pay big bucks for ‘ordinary’ properties #774226/4/02; 04:18:25

Million-dollar home sales at record


SAN FRANCISCO, June 3 — The dream of owning a million-dollar home ain't what it used to be. Forget about swimming pools, servants’ quarters and movie stars. Jed Clampett's home — the one before he struck oil — is fast becoming a million-dollar spread in the Bay Area.

Black Blade: Speaking of "Housing Bubble", check out the article linked above.

tedwIndia v. Pakistan #774236/4/02; 04:27:21

The situation is growing very tense with 9 more deaths with cross-country shelling. Links to both Pakistan Dawn and Hindustan times at www.worldnetdaily.

Not only is the situtation tense, but war and peace rest in the hands of the crazies. Bin Laden, et al, are in the area
and one attack from them on India will be all it takes to prod India into "surgical strikes".

A very unstable situation.

SteveHone-year chart (gold)...#7742406/04/02; 05:17:14

Looks awefully bullish. I keep seeing visions of exponential lines extending upwards on that puppy. Anyone else see that?
tedwWar and Gold #7742506/04/02; 05:49:54

The dismal history of the human race is one war after another with only brief intervals of peace. In times of uncertainty,chaos,and violence physical gold provides some measure of certainty.

Presently,in India and Pakistan (and the Middle East for that matter) the invisible spirit of EVIL is instigating hatred, murder,and violence.

India and Pakistan, being for the most part Godless Pagan nations (worship a cow anyone?), will most likely be lead into war. And Im sure hatred and human suffering will be the most likely result.

Not until the human race wakes up to who the real enemy is will there be peace.

Until then, have some gold on hand.

White RoseNo trashing religion#7742606/04/02; 05:56:36

I am deeply troubled by the reference to "pagan". So you are offended by the worship of a cow. I cow helps sustain life, it does not take it away. I think you might be offended by an insulting remark about those who worship execution instruments.

This is a forum about gold. Today is an exciting day. Even CNBC occasionally says something to warm the hearts of a goldbug. Lets keep our focus on the important issues.

goldenboy@Nomad and WAC Focus on Younger Readers re 70`s Experience re: Housing Bubble:#7742706/04/02; 07:04:06

If we are in a rerun of the 70`s show, the housing price escalation could keep on going. It will depend on people`s perceptions of value, mortgage rates,demographics and inflation.
To illustrate, say your sister takes the $250k, puts it in the bank and lives in an apartment in Arizona. Would interest payments after tax cover rent? What if people switch to saving things instead of cash. Good for gold and real estate. If rates go up, say to 19% with inflation below 10% then yes, a housing crash. What about housing demographic trends? Will bommers and echo boomers want monster homes near big northern industrial cities? I doubt it.
Finally, what about inflation and inflation vs. interest rates? Obviously, it is hard to imagine a more accommodative interest environment, but actually there is a way to continue to provide liquidity to that market and that is through inflation/currency depreciation, but in a local sense.
In the 70`s you had a negative real interest rate scenario, so for instance if your mortgage rate was 6%, but inflation was 9%, then taking the $250k and lending it to someone at 6%, then taking the tax hit meant your capital was probably reduced in value by 6% in one year. If you wanted to move up in the housing market, there was a disincentive to wait as it would cost you more. Escalation in housing values meant that housing became "free" or better to thoses with hefty mortgages. Bond holders/mortgage holders were hurt in real after tax dollars.
More important was that banks got paid back and government had a free tax ride on inflated capital gains and taxes.

So, to sum up, I would argue that there is a scenario where the housing bubble could keep on going for quite a while, could actually be reliquified while interest rates go up somewhat, so long as real interest rates decline. There are demographic and pricing power differences from the 70`s and it will be interesting to determine their effects.

The good news is that gold seems to historically start to soar after large run-ups in real estate.

Gimli_Oil in Euros? Global warming? Real estate bubble? STAGFLATION!!#7742806/04/02; 07:04:07

As I read the speculation today that Russia and then Opec would soon price their oil in Euros, it dawned on me that perhaps that explains Bush's flip-flop on global warming. Oil dollars has been a major support for the continuing dollar dominance as the world's reserve currency.

So maybe the flip-flop on global warming is an attack on oil to help mitigate the Euro shock against the dollar? Home grown fuel cell technology and other alternative energy sources would be like the WPA in the Great Depression, keeping folks busy while oil/Euro independence can be established.

Unfortunately, alternative energies are still very expensive and putting a non-oil infrastructure in place will take several years, if not decades. So we can count on massive debt and inflation escalation as we keep our own people working since imports suddenly become very expensive.

I disagree that the real estate bubble will pop into lower prices. Houses won't be selling as well because interest rates will have to rise in support of the dollar, but housing prices will soar as the dollar plummets. Other tangible goods will inflate faster than housing, but current real estate prices will rise (though inflation adjusted dollars will show them falling relative to other goods).

So, as long as one can pay his taxes and house payment, it isn't a bad idea to be invested in an affordable house considering that you have to live somewhere even in stagflationary times that are coming.

Cavan Man@steveH#7742906/04/02; 07:12:54

RE: Russian oil in EURO

Russia has been collecting a small amount of Euro per bbl. on sales into the EU for about two years or so. EURO will be needed to settle trade between Russia and her neighbors.

What is developing is pretty basic stuff though it will change the world. By basic I mean we learned about world trade in elementary school classes of social studies and geography. Remember where cocao comes from?

All our mysterious essayists have really been saying is that the dollar is over sold, over bought, over used and over indulged. Connect the dots. Best....CM

PS: Russia makes the first move (new friend of US).. OPEC follows. Brinkmanship at its' best.

YGMGold, Debt & Great Depression....#7743006/04/02; 08:00:17

Good reading....
YGMCOMPREHENSIVE DEBT SITE#7743106/04/02; 08:02:56

Excellent site for all debt related info etc......
barnacle billHoly Cow !#7743206/04/02; 08:14:56

If what I have read on the subject is true; the expression 'holy cow' comes from the fact that psychedlic mushrooms often grow in cow manure.

Down through the ages, different cultures and civilizations have used them in their religious ceremonies. I even saw a picture of a Jewish Rabbi/Priest or whatever, wearing a mushroom hat.

Have a nice day.

CometoseREAL ESTATE???#7743306/04/02; 08:19:19

I think they call it a bubble because the growth of the real estate market and the escalating value of Real Estate is based on the paper profits that the stock market bubble gave us .... I don't remember a bubble in the seventies , but do remember massive inflation....

...the bubble hasn't popped yet as the bankers have been trying to patch and pump while the press has been telling glorious tales of a recovery.... 5 trillion , it is said is vanished forever from the percieved wealth of the consumer.....when the market hits on the downward plunge a specific level.....panick will ensue and selling that you have never witnessed will occur...many more trillions of consumer wealth will have vanished.....The value of the companies on the Dow Nasdaq and S&P markets has already been
looted ...The perception in the public eyes is still rose colored....the clause in most real estate mortgage contracts today reads to the effect that when/if real estate values plunge below a particular level , the bank may ask for payment ....I wonder who wrote those clauses and why???? Based on former posts , it is been stated that Banks do really well in times like these...stealing capital from the producing sector of the economy...they may also redistribute real estate when /if it falls in value....

To service the(US) debt , the Fed will have to raise Rates . Now that the Dollar is in decline and the EURO is on the rise , the rate at which the Fed will have to raise rates may be suprising based on the new global perception as to the dollar's worth and utility...THe raising of rates in this new economy domestic and global may have a further deleterious effect on dollar based assets including bubble stock market prices and the real estate valuations that heretofore growing stock market value supported....

Their was a new trend established in the developing Mutual Fund Industry .. and stock market mania that it supported.
The mutual fund industry encouraged the holders of the mutual fund to borrow against the value of the funds so that the holders of these funds could enjoy the increase in paper profits without incurring capital that husbands could share their good fortune with their patient wives / showering them with trinkets and 2nd/3rd homes...

When the value of those mutual fund accounts goes up in a panick vacuum , the real estate is going to go with it...the baby boomers is a large group which has recieved the mistaken perception that real estate is an investment..
they are going to be unloading that at a future time to a much smaller demographic group that cannot absorb it ...that is a supply /demand issue

The new problem with real estate is that the insurance cos are rewriting if they have not already stated that casualty losses due to acts of war are not covered on your cherished real estate... that makes real estate in a metroplex a financial some degree

PippinEducational games at my level#7743406/04/02; 08:23:23

Although it is not directly gold-related, I just downloaded, for my own education, a little free game developped by the Swiss National Bank around monetary policy, in the hope that more notions on this subject could help me deciphering the discussions of our Masters here.
I just tought it could be of some interest to other little Hobbits.
The URL is indicated above. Just choose the game among the various publications.
Needless to say that there are other elements of interests in SNB's site!

Here is SNB's introductory note:
MoPoS (short for: Monetary Policy Simulation Game) is a computer game which lets the player act out the role of a fictitious central bank by implementing monetary policy in a simple virtual economy. The purpose of the game is to give the player a feel for the options and limitations of monetary policy. There is, however, no connection whatsoever between MoPoS and the monetary policy conducted by the Swiss National Bank.
On the one hand, no special background knowledge is necessary to play the game, which has been designed for interested lay persons as well as pupils and students. Since, on the other hand, it allows the model specifications (monetary policy regulation, parameter values, shock characteristics) to be altered at will, informed users will also find numerous forms of application. MoPoS was developed by former National Bank economist Yvan Lengwiler (Economic Studies Section).
The programme requires Microsoft Windows 95 (or better) and Microsoft Excel 97. The programme has not been tested with Excel 2000. No MacIntosh version is available. If you want to play the MoPoS game, download the file "MoPoS.exe" (a self-extracting ZIP file) onto your hard disk. Then run the file and select "unzip". This will download all the required files of the game onto your hard disk.


Interstatetedw#7743506/04/02; 08:35:17

Had any of us been born in India, we probably would be one of those "pagans". But we would also have as our heritage, a real appreciation for gold.

goldfoolBlack Blade#7743606/04/02; 08:48:37

$330.00 new "Line in the hedger book" to be defended?
YGMDebt Crisis....#7743706/04/02; 08:53:08

& Mortgage Defaults & Many Other Pertinent Subjects......

*If anyone thinks N Americans won't be in a debt crisis if Markets and Currencies tank, then they should think again.
The debt load ie: credit card, home mortgage etc has never been so high as in present day...The lineup to hand over the keys to the house etc will be staggering compared to the 1930's...So how can anyone think property values will go up much less remain stable in the future...This is why
Davidson & Reese-Moog advocated renting or leasing prior to the next market crash...Get the value while you can and use that money in other sectors such as Gold/Silver...This topic may be easily debatable but such is my opinion as well as that of many who are far more knowledgable in these matters.....History will repeat in many ways.....

Sample of Topics and papers on the previous site I linked..

Emerging Bear Markets
Over Indebtedness

Waves of Default
Markets Ignore Indebtedness
LongWaves and Debt Polarization
by Trond Andresen

Debt Levels Bond Mkt Assoc.
Links to Bankruptcy Sites
US State Bankruptcy Laws
Corporate Bankruptcies 1980-94
Recent US banruptcies from Timesize
Quarterly US Bankruptcies
FDIC report on bank failures in debt crisis of 'eighties
US Households
Bankruptcy Petitions (nonbusiness) 1980-98IV
Credit Card $34bil paydown via new '98 mortgages
Household Debt and Delinquences, 1997
Stuart Feldstein on Consumer Credit
Mortgage Defaults
Bankruptcies Dismal Scientist Oct 97
Bankruptcies American Bankruptcy Institute
US Household and Corporate Debt 1952-2001QI
Consumer Installment Credit/Personal Income

Delinquent Non-tax Debt to US Federal government rose from $51bil in fiscal 97 to $60bil in fiscal '98
Annual Charge-offs of Savings Institutions
Non Current Loans and Leases
Interest as part of Govt Budgets Martin Armstrong 11/98
Interest vs Corporate Profits
Babson on '28-29 by Curtiss Priest
Yardeni's graphs of the Fed's Flow of Funds data.
Margin Debt/GDP from NYT
US Bankruptcy Legislation March 2000
Filings 1980-97
US Stats
S&P: 99 Record Year
Brief History of US Bankruptcy Laws
Further History with long-term HH Charts
In an NYT's (2/4/01) article that does not refer to "debt" Robert Schiller argues that "A great embarrassment for modern macroeconomic theory is that it has never achieved any consensus on the basic questions of ... what ultimately causes recessions. ...we are in a moment when confidence and market psychology are are changing fast. Surprises -- perhaps a serious recession -- could be in store for us."
Gold, Debt and the Great Depression
by Don Roper (250K pdf)
Wartime Stimulus vs Unsustainable Debt
Current Country Risk Ratings

Country-Debt Pages Indonesia
Argentina Default Around the Corner 6oct01 WP


Jubilee or Debt Forgiveness Movement Third World Debt Forum
Debtor's Cartel
Jubilee Plus
Drop the Debt
Canadian Ecumenical Jubilee Initiative

Moody's on International Corporate defaults in 2000II
Exchange Rate Policies and External Debt Levels

Guardian on International Debt
Fitch: Soverign Debt Rating Press Releases

Sustainability of International Debt
Asian crisis bailout nos
UK Insolvencies--2000.Q1
Insolvencies 1992-2001.Q1
Overindebtedness and the Fine Print

Latin America
Mexico: Christopher Whalen
Hyperinflation in the Southern Cone
Brazil's Public Debt 2/99
Brazil's Foreign Debt
Brazil's '98 Crisis by Eiji Hosomi
Africa: Ivory Coast
South Africa: Apartheid Debt
Jubilee South Africa

China: Debt Collection after oct98 GITIC default Debt covered by international reserves

Indonesia: Default or Another Dictatorship
Japan: Chart 1990-99 corporate defaults

Albania's Pyramid Scheme

Bibliography on International Debt '93

Debt Relief Movements
BBC on debt relief
Debt Relief from
IMF/WB use of debt to redistribute wealth
Odious Debts
Jubilee 2000
Catholic Workers Movement

BIS-OECD-IMF-WB recent country debt series
South Sea Bubble
Tulip Mania
The Mississippi Scheme

kramrichMORE FOR THE BONE PILE#7743806/04/02; 08:58:07

HP to lay off mor employees.
Around The CornerRE: Oil in Euros? Global warming? Real estate bubble? STAGFLATION!!#7743906/04/02; 09:28:04


From your post:

"I disagree that the real estate bubble will pop into lower prices. Houses won't be selling as well because interest rates will have to rise in support of the dollar, but housing prices will soar as the dollar plummets. Other tangible goods will inflate faster than housing, but current real estate prices will rise (though inflation adjusted dollars will show them falling relative to other goods)."

Looks like you have identified a very possible scenario!

A few questions, if you please?

1) Do you expect employment to remain stable or even rise in the U.S. in the near future? If so, who will be hiring?

2) Do you expect Fannie and Freddie to continue their current policy of allowing home owners who fall 3 months+ behind on their payments to move those payments to the back of the loan?

3) Should Fannie and Freddie falter/fail, will Congress bail them out like the did the S&L's during the '80s?

What I see taking place in the real estate market is mostly just investor buying, which artifically drives up the price of housing which increases the price ceiling at which Fannie and Freddie are allowed to loan to.

Investors are purchasing houses with no interest in actually living in them. (Houses are being bought and sold two, three, even four times without anyone ever living in them.) The investor then waits for a middle class sucker who is clueless and who, under normal market/economic conditions and without artifically low interest rates and easy no down payment terms, would never qualify for a home loan, to take the bait.

It really is nothing more than a repeat of the S&L crimes of the '80's. The real estate investors playing this game know that when the party ends, it's not them that will be left holding the bag. All they have to do is declare bankruptcy on their current real estate holdings and walk away with their millions in profits from their previous purchases and sales while the tax payers get stuck bailing out Fannie and Freddie (too big to fail).

The sad part is, all those older homeowners who maxed out their equity with re-financing will find themselves owning a home that is now worth up to 50% less than they have it financed for. So in this way, what is being done in the real estate market by the "investors" is actually going to end up hurting us worse than the S&L criminals did.

How much do you want to bet that it's largely the same group of players who bankrupt the S&Ls that are now working together in driving up the price of real estate and profiting from it, only to end up having the tax payer foot the bill?

Their MO looks awfully familiar.

The HoopleCometose, YGM, others#7744006/04/02; 09:32:09

I have mentioned this before but I keep track of 6 stocks that to me are a direct barometer of housing, derivatives, and the economy. They tell me daily where the direction is heading. Currently all are flashing warning signals. They are: JPM, IBM, GE, HD, Fannie, and Freddie. Any housing or derivatives bubble bursting will show up in these stocks very quickly. While housing is most certainly in a bubble, I would qualify that with if your property is self-sufficient and remote you shouldn't underestimate its desirability. My property is not for sale at any price. I know many others who feel the same way.
EagleOneYGM #7744106/04/02; 10:17:41

Your prior message stated:*Get the value while you can and use that money in other sectors such as Gold/Silver...This topic may be easily debatable but such is my opinion as well as that of many who are far more knowledgable in these matters.....History will repeat in many ways.....*

I would like to present a opposing opinion: For me and many other typical home owners, renting or leasing as propsed in the article just doesn't pencil out. Here's why: I have about $180,000 equity in my house. If I get an equity loan for $150,000 and invest it in something returning 10%, after capital gains taxes I gain $11,500 per year but pay about $12,000 more per year in payments on the loan. Not so good.

If I rent or lease I could get $12,000 more income per year, less of course the property taxes, maintenence, insurance and other expenses on the house.

But then where am I going to live? Rent another house, I suppose, for about the same ammenities to keep the wife and kids happy and in the good schools where they now attend.

That is a break even at best with no extra left over to invest. Bottom line, I'll stay where I am and plow the extra payments I would have been making on the equity loan into more Gold Eagles.


Gimli_Real Estate Bust!#7744206/04/02; 10:25:29

I reserve the right to be wrong, but let me give my opinion in answering your questions below:

1) Do you expect employment to remain stable or even rise in the U.S. in the near future? If so, who will be hiring?

I expect unemployment to continue to climb (and so does Bush I think). As the dollar falls, our imported goods will dramatically rise and corporate profits will plummet since so much manufacturing is done overseas. However, some jobs will come home in the process, albeit to a greatly diminished consumer economy. Faced with massive discontent and unemployment, the government will encourage industry to take on more employees, and the government will itself create jobs (such as alternative energies industries). Debt will explode and the dollar will inflate (radically?).

2) Do you expect Fannie and Freddie to continue their current policy of allowing home owners who fall 3 months+ behind on their payments to move those payments to the back of the loan?

These being federally backed, the government will make sure that poor people generally don't lose their homes. That's not to say that some higher priced or speculative investments won't be allowed to fail. These are good political moves that get officials re-elected. The result is even worse socialism and government dependence (which is what both the elected officials and the power elite desire so that THEY are more firmly in control).

3) Should Fannie and Freddie falter/fail, will Congress bail them out like the did the S&L's during the '80s?


I long ago studied my copy of "The Great Reckoning" by Davidson and Rees-Mogg. I understand and agree with their historic examples of manias causing hyperinflation and the ultimate blow-off with prices plummeting. However, devaluation of the dollar allows for old debts to be repaid with worthless dollars if the currency fails--which it looks poised to do for the first time since the Constitution was written over 200 years ago. This time, I believe the devaluation will be permanent--like new pesos or new rubles at 1/1000 of former value.

That is not to say that high end and speculative property won't get squeezed during the run-up, but the masses of Joe Schmucks with modest houses won't be put on the street if he can weather the storm since they represent majority votes. Those middle and upper middle class that are over-extended will be crushed though.

I think it is an excellent idea to be debt-free, or to at least have assets enough to off-set any debt that might be called in. Also, you have to live somewhere. Owning a modest home is still a great asset especially during inflationary times.

I don't think it wise to sell your house and rent, and then use the money to buy physical gold. On the other hand, I do believe that after securing your home that it is prudent to buy a variety of precious metals and mining shares....

kramrichReal Estate Bubble.#7744306/04/02; 10:57:10


Only one area of the economy stayed positive: housing starts/home sales. Here is the heaviest debt
load for consumers. Housing is basically a long-term consumer good, heavily funded by mortgages.
So, consumers have remained optimistic, long-term, but their employers have grown pessimistic at
least with respect to the short term.

Consumers believe that the housing market will always rise. They think, "buy now, pay later." They
think, "I can lock in low-interest fixed mortgage money today, and I'll pay it off with depreciated
dollars." This strategy has worked ever since 1946.

The credit markets are supplying this money to borrowers. The mortgage market is presumed to be
secured by the U.S. government, so Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac keeps making available mortgage
money to borrowers. These enterprises are called GSE's or Government Sponsored Enterprises.

If mortgage holders think they can win at the expense of mortgage-issuers, why do people continue
to put their money into pools of long-term mortgages? Because they think these pools of capital are
government-guaranteed. They are looking for high returns short-term. They figure they can sell off
their holdings later if rates climb. They think they can protect themselves against both default
(because of a supposed government guarantee) and interest-rate risk (by selling to new buyers if
rates go up). They assume that their investment will be liquid forever.


There is a Web site devoted to warning the public about the risk to taxpayers from these GSE's: FM
Watch. It has warned against the massive increase in derivatives in the mortgage-based GSE's. It has
also warned against recent equity losses. The looming risk is gigantic: "the GSEs now guarantee more
debt and mortgage-backed securities ("MBS") than all comparable U.S. Treasury debt."

Since September 11, the nation has learned that risks once deemed improbable can
quickly become possible. With the nation in a recession, all financial institutions risk
being adversely affected but none more than Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two
Government Sponsored Enterprises ("GSEs"). For years, the GSEs have been permitted
to operate on thin capital cushions built for best-of-times assumptions. The last few
months have underscored the riskiness of GSE excesses o and permitted GSE abuses
arising out of September 11. Recent developments are dramatic:

In the third quarter of 2001, the value of Fannie Mae's shareholder equity fell by $10.6
billion, a result of risky hedging in the derivatives market. Fannie Mae's debt/equity
ratio is now 53:1, five times more than the average for commercial banks. If Fannie Mae
were regulated like a commercial bank, it would face serious risk of closure.

In the week following September 11, the Federal Reserve extended credit of $81 billion
to ensure adequate liquidity in the markets. On September 14, Freddie Mac moved in
an entirely opposite – and counterproductive – direction, issuing $5 billion in two-year
notes that took cash out of the market. No other debt issuer did so because the
markets were loathe to buy private company debt during considerable market
instability. But Freddie Mac exploited its implied government guarantee to raise cheap
money from frightened investors at a time of national emergency. . . .

In recent years, the dramatic growth in GSE debt has significantly increased the risk to
U.S. taxpayers. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have increased their debt six-fold since
1992, from $196 billion to $1.26 trillion in the third quarter of 2001. In a decade when
Treasury borrowing dropped dramatically, uncontrolled GSE debt was moving in the
opposite direction. Almost unbelievably, the GSEs now guarantee more debt and
mortgage-backed securities ("MBS") than all comparable U.S. Treasury debt.

This debt has been issued chiefly to fund a lucrative investment portfolio, which was
undertaken solely to grow profits for GSE shareholders. Here's how it works: the GSEs
borrow funds cheaply because of their implicit government guarantee, then invest
them. The above-market returns are highly profitable – but do nothing to increase
American homeownership. In 2000, both GSEs reported that this arbitrage investing
accounted for approximately 60 percent of their net income. That's like a local
government issuing a revenue bond to build a schoolhouse, then using part of the
money to play the stock market. If the GSEs bet right, their shareholders profit. If they
bet wrong, the U.S. taxpayer loses.

Compounding this debt growth, the GSEs are also leveraged far beyond what would
be permitted for other financial institutions. At year-end 2000, the GSEs' debt-to-equity
leverage for on-balance sheet liabilities was 30:1 versus 11:1 for commercial banks. If
the GSEs were to meet the standards imposed on commercial banks, they would need
to hold $82 billion in capital – or double their current amount. In their current
condition, the Federal Reserve would deem them "significantly under-capitalized" –
and they would face serious risk of closure. These institutions simply are woefully
undercapitalized – a situation that becomes more perilous during a recession.

The GSEs attempt to mitigate the risk associated with their debt through extensive
reliance on derivatives. From 1995 to 2000, the GSEs' derivatives exposure increased
over 400%. At the end of last year, the GSEs had $749 billion in such exposure. This is
a massive amount of derivatives exposure.

As stated above, recent events underscore the riskiness of a derivatives strategy. In
the third quarter of 2001, Fannie Mae reported a startling write-down of $10.6 billion in
shareholder equity, reducing its equity by 29 percent from where it stood just three
months earlier. Fannie Mae took a big position in the derivatives market and bet
wrong. As a result, Fannie Mae's debt/equity ratio shot up to 53:1. This approaches a
doubling of the GSEs' year-end 2000 leverage ratio of 30:1.


I don't think that Greenspan is worrying much about the stock market. If there is one area of the
economy that must get his attention, it is the mortgage market. The housing market kept the economy
from falling into even greater recession in 2001. This is because of the existence of what is perceived
as both safety and liquidity in the mortgage industry's GSE's. Huge pools of capital have been formed
to keep home buyers happy. I receive a bulk e-mail (spam) offer for cheap mortgage money every day.
This has been going on for at least a year. Investors perceive these markets as low-risk yet paying an
above-market rate of return. Borrowers perceive the debt as profitable: use the home now, see it
appreciate, and pay off the mortgage with cheaper dollars.

It is perceived as a win-win deal because of the presence of an assumed government guarantee. If this
guarantee if ever perceived by investors as an illusion that Congress cannot back up with money,
then the breakdown of the housing markets will be far worse than the S&L crisis of the mid-1980's.
Liquidity will disappear.

I think the FED is providing liquidity mainly to keep this market solvent. The problem is, the constant
increase in credit money continues to distort the capital markets. Eventually, monetary inflation will
produce price inflation. Long-term interest rates will then rise to compensate lenders for the expected
decline in the dollar's future purchasing power. Equity in mortgages already held by investors will fall.
There will be a derivatives-based, Enron-type event, on a scale vastly larger than Enron.

Congress worries about another Enron, yet its own policies are creating the biggest potential
Enron-type event in history.

Housing got through the recession of 2001 unscathed. Any time an investment market is perceived as
low-risk, capital flows into it. On the one hand, consumers are willing to borrow. On the other hand,
lenders are willing to lend long-term. Liquidity looks permanent. The win-win nature of the
arrangement is still widely perceived as low-risk. This is the classic mark of a bubble.

My friend John Schaub, who has spent his career in real estate investing, is convinced that we are
close to a housing market peak. If he is right, then the biggest bubble of all is looking not just toppy
buy poppy.


We are still in a repressed depression. The Federal Reserve System is still in inflationary mode. The
war against a free-market-based readjustment of capital values according to supply and demand with
monetary stability is still being conducted by the FED. No one in power wants to know what the
conditions of supply and demand would be in a world without monetary inflation. So, the
inflation-produced distortions in the capital markets are continuing, as usual. The dollar is still
depreciating. The annual increase in the median consumer price index jumped from 2% in December to
3.7% in January.

The war against the dollar's purchasing power will continue. When it comes to attaining a world
governed by free market pricing instead of monetary manipulation by a handful of central bank
bureaucrats, everybody wants to go to heaven, but nobody wants to die.

bob lepporeal estate bubble the Fannie Mae signal#7744406/04/02; 11:00:53

good discussion re a coming real estate slump. I speculate in many markets (currently long gold futures, short the Dow futures, and short the dollar index) and think the key re a real estate collapse is the price action of Fannie Mae common stock. It ran up a couple years ago from the 50's into a 75-85 range where it has stayed (currently 79). Fannie Mae seems to me way overvalued because of the high leverage (amount of mortgages owned comparred to equity)- the common equity would become worthless given any meaningful drop in national residential home prices and those prices will go down once Fannie Mae is no longer able to buy mortgages at their current enormous rate which in turn will happen once Fannie Mae's access to the debt market is reduced. Note that Alan Greenspan has publicly warned investors in Fannie Mae paper <B>NOT TO ASSUME</B> the government will bail out companies like Fannie Mae. I have tried shorting the stock but have decided to wait until Fannie Mae breaks below 75. Such a breakout on the downside is IMHO the best signal that the real estate bubble is rolling over. I expect to short the stock again FWIW.
jkamerowtesting password#7744506/04/02; 11:04:58

Whaddaya know... it works!
YGMHoople and "All"....#7744606/04/02; 11:22:16

Hoople...While housing is most certainly in a bubble, I would qualify that with if your property is self-sufficient and remote you shouldn't underestimate its desirability. My property is not for sale at any price. I know many others who feel the same way.

**Two things catch my sensibilities....'Self-sufficient' and 'Remote'....Those home ownership qualities are priceless and most would agree w/ your rationale....I definately do...

All.....Well everyone has to formulate and stick to a game plan once he or she has an educated opinion as to the future and this is a seemingly 'HOT' topic today but I'm going to bow out of carrying on and stay focused on Gold as I have enough trouble understanding the complexities and inter-relationships of so many governing factors in this what appears to be a Great Realignment or Day of Reckoning that we all percieve to be at the doorstep....Many thanks for responses and I continue to read and learn....

It's so great to have some new additions/minds throwing their thoughts and wide array of knowledge into the mix of the forum....Each day seems to get better since MK's last contest!!!!!

White RoseBush on Global Warming#7744706/04/02; 11:45:10

There has been much speculation that the issue of global warming would come down to a massive legal battle between the energy industry (the responsible party) vs. the insurance industry (the pary that pays for all the storm damage).

So ... Bush administration issues a report that says "yes, there is global warming, yes, it is caused by human activity, but no, there is nothing that can be done to stop it".

This report is an attempt to shield the energy industry from future lawsuits, in the same way the cigarette warning shields the tobacco industry from anything but ancient lawsuits.

It is all about money and power. No wonder so many people are upset about it.

I invite Black Blade (with his fabulous web surfing abilities) to see what is behind this latest issue in the press.

YGMThe Hoople.....#7744806/04/02; 11:50:21

A ..PS: if I may...

I also want self sufficiency and some remoteness for future events, so as to have some measure of security for family...My search took two weeks and expenses from Yukon to SW Alberta...I found there, a dated but fully renovated 3 br, f/basement farm type home with barns etc and 200 acres for my Horses (grazing only) 2 wells and a creek w/ trout on property, and 1/4 acre garden...This lease costs $6000.00 p/yr and w/ 10 yr continuim...Now the local cost to buy this place would be from 300K to 450K...This cost of leasing without prop taxes or maintenence is a pittance to me...At some point in time (as prices are "Already dropping' in the year I've been here) I expect I will buy nearby for 1/2 to 2/3 the present costs maybe less...There are other places of this nature if one looks hard enough...For many tho the thought of relocating etc is overwhelming or not possible I realize...My point is most of us are looking for the same things only in different ways...BTW...I could ride a bicycle to the Rocky Mtns for the ultimate remoteness :>} I'm that close.....YGM
TownCrierBOJ intervention to dampen a rising yen is but a temporary prop to the dollar#7744906/04/02; 11:57:26

NEW YORK, June 4 (Reuters) - The New York Federal Reserve said on Tuesday it had no comment on whether or not the bank participated in any foreign exchange market intervention on behalf of Japan's Ministry of Finance.

"We do not comment on reports of interventions by other

U.S. traders reported that the Bank of Japan was buying dollars for yen on behalf of the ministry, prompting the dollar to rise.... This marked the fourth time Japan has intervened to cut the export-crimping strength of the yen in the past 2-1/2 weeks.

---------(click URL for full text)-------

Bottom line: Stan and Ollie.

(Laurel and Hardy, that is)

Call Centennial for a necessary gold diversification strategy.


TownCrierStan and Ollie revisited [Helpmates--1932]#7745006/04/02; 12:09:37

Stan: "If I had any sense I'd walk out on you!"
Ollie: "Well, it's a good thing you don't!"
Stan: "It certainly is!"

TownCrierL & H: Dollar surges as Bank of Japan sells yen#7745106/04/02; 12:19:21

NEW YORK, June 4 (Reuters) - The dollar shot up by more than a full unit against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, as the Bank of Japan intervened for the fourth time in two weeks to weaken its currency.

...concern among Japanese officials that the yen's strength could douse a nascent economic recovery. "It...looks like they are serious. They want to drive (the dollar) higher," said Grant Wilson at Mellon Bank.

----(see URL for more of the show)-----

The HoopleYGM#7745206/04/02; 12:46:11

$6,000 annual lease for 200+ acres and improvements? You can't hardly lease a luxury automobile for that! Sounds like my kind of place. Water, food, heating fuel all at your disposal. Plenty of hiding places for all those CPM purchases. I remember after 9/11 all the New Yorkers scrambling to leave for Long Island and the Hamptons. Brief bidding wars sprang up for the choice secluded properties on the market. That gave me a clue what a real all-out war would do to rural enclaves.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Don't be fooled by inflatable paper substitutes#7745306/04/02; 12:58:15

gold sovereigns
Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance-credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial commodity which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

JimboGold at $400#7745406/04/02; 13:03:03

CBSMarketWatch's Mike Maynard wrote an interesting piece today that suggested gold will move up to $400 within 12-18 months. Hope this story hasn't already been posted? Here's an exerpt:

On to $400?

But conditions in the currency market may be even more important a determinant for gold, according to market analyst Paul van Eeden of Global Resource Investments Ltd. in Carlsbad, Calif.

On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan intervened for the fourth time in three weeks in the currency market, a move designed to blunt recent gains made by the Japanese yen against the dollar.

While the dollar gained against the yen after the central bank's intervention, the euro gained more ground against the greenback. A weaker dollar makes gold more affordable for foreign buyers.

Van Eeden said the dollar's safe-haven status has been undermined, noting that on a percentage basis gold's gains since the end of January have clearly outpaced the retreat in the dollar. This suggests that "gold is becoming attractive once again as a store of wealth," he said.

Van Eeden believes gold could change hands at $400 an ounce within 18 to 36 months.

Also on Nymex, July silver rose 4.5 cents to $5.125 an ounce, July platinum gained $5.60 to $553 an ounce, June palladium rose $1.55 to $354.30 an ounce, July aluminum tacked on 0.45 cent to 66.3 cents a pound and July copper advanced 1.05 cents to 78.6 cents a pound.

TownCrierExplore#7745506/04/02; 13:06:47

A convenient index for your use. (You can access this URL at any time by clicking the blue sky USAGOLD logo at the top of the forum).
Gandalf the WhiteJust returned from a NIGHT controlling the ORCS and what do I see --#7745606/04/02; 13:16:41

THANKS for all the discussion from the NEW POSTERS !!

YGM (06/04/02; 11:22:16MT - msg#: 77446)
--snip--- & "All"....
It's so great to have some new additions/minds throwing their thoughts and wide array of knowledge into the mix of the forum....Each day seems to get better since MK's last contest!!!!!
YES INDEED !! and now with Dr. BB on the USAGOLD Staff things can only get better and better. BUT remember, as I state in my educational classes, "There is no such thing as a DUMB QUESTION !" (Only DUMB ANSWERS from the unknowing "teachers" !)
Looks to me as if ANOTHER picture is coming into focus !

TownCrierBloomberg on investor movement into gold#7745706/04/02; 13:52:15

New York, June 4 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to a 4 1/2-year high, extending this year's rally to 18 percent, as investors sought an alternative to stocks and bonds.

Investors are buying gold in search of better returns and protection from a disruption to financial markets should India and Pakistan go to war. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index has dropped 9 percent this year, while the 2-year Treasury note has returned 1.6 percent, including reinvested interest.

``Gold is an alternative if you're not happy with the stock market, and bond yields are fairly low,'' said Jay Mueller, who helps invest $45 billion in assets at Strong Capital Management in Milwaukee.

``The tension of conflict, such as in the Middle East and South Asia, also pushed investors to buy gold,'' said Koichiro Kamei, managing director of Market Strategy Institute Inc., a metals research company. ``The tension may damage economies and increase investment risk.''

Bottom line: Do you think that gold investing has reached Main Street U.S.A. yet? I think we have yet to see even the TIP of the iceberg, still just a ghostly shape through the mist.


TownCrierEuro building base, comes at dollar's expense#7745806/04/02; 13:58:53

HEADLINE: ECB's Duisenberg sees continued strength in demand

June 4 (Reuters) - European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg on Tuesday said...

"Looking ahead, available forecasts all paint a picture of a continued but slow strengthening in both domestic and foreign demand."

Black BladeHewlett-Packard Co. In Trouble – Cuts 15,000 Jobs#7745906/04/02; 14:39:35


BOSTON, June 4 (Reuters) - Hewlett-Packard Co. on Monday said it would cut jobs faster and slice costs deeper to wring more savings from its merger with Compaq Computer, and warned that the slump in technology spending was dragging on and would cut into sales in the current quarter. Chief Executive Carly Fiorina, meeting financial analysts for the first time since winning an eight-month battle to carry out the $18.7 billion merger, said the computer and printer maker would cut 15,000 jobs by November 2003, a year ahead of schedule.

Black Blade: The company announced no recovery this year and 15,000 employess are to go off to the growing "Bone Pile", even after AG stated that job cut announcements are slowing. Hmmm…

Black BladeLawmaker wants detail from JP Morgan on Enron loans#7746006/04/02; 14:45:20


WASHINGTON, June 3 (Reuters) - A Democratic lawmaker on Monday pressed for more details from J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) about its role in transactions that may have allowed a subsidiary of Enron Corp. (OTC:ENRNQ.PK) to borrow $1 billion without the loans appearing on company balance sheets.

California Rep. Henry Waxman said he was not satisfied with the investment bank's explanation in a recent letter that the way the loan transactions were reported was up to Enron, not J.P. Morgan. J.P. Morgan's May 8 letter to Waxman said allegations "that the firm assisted Enron in disguising loans are baseless." Waxman wrote back to J.P. Morgan on Monday to say the investment bank had not answered his original questions sent to the firm in April about the transactions. "Your letter failed to address the most striking aspect of the loans ... namely, the fact that they allowed Enron to appear to repay its monthly obligations without any money seemingly changing hands," Waxman wrote.

He demanded a more detailed explanation from the investment bank by June 12. He released both his letter and J.P. Morgan's May 8 letter to the media.

Black Blade: JP Morgan Chase is in the hot seat. We could see some "interesting" developments as the congressional committee focuses in on the derivatives trades and off-shore shell companies.

Black BladeCapitulation Phase May Be Near - Investor Confidence Eroding#7746106/04/02; 14:54:22


Last Wednesday we wrote a comment called "Market Top Looks Ominous", and today the market came crumbling down as the S&P 500 came all the way back to a level that it reached only eight trading days after the September bottom. Investor confidence, already shaken by the accounting scandals, was further shattered by the resignation of Tyco's CEO because of possible income tax evasion, the suicide of El Paso's Treasurer and the accusation that Williams companies tried to manipulate California's energy prices during last year's crisis. This came on a day when some analysts issued somewhat negative opinions on the software and chip stocks and Xylinx failed to make the optimistic statements that the Street expected. To make matters worse the front page of the Wall Street Journal featured an article outlining the negative effects of further weakening of the dollar.

Black Blade: The markets clawed their way back from deep negative territory (perhaps with a little help from their friends?). Someone apparently intervened in the currency markets in a big way today and there was a rumor that a truce between Pakistan-India. This rumor was later denied, however, it had already worked its way into the currency trades and the PM markets causing a strengthening in the USD and a pullback in Gold prices. Alan Greenspan gave a somewhat upbeat report on the US economy with some reservations. Nothing in the data suggests an economic recovery. Tomorrow is another day as London markets are back online and reality may set back in.

Black BladeCorning To Cut 1,500 Jobs This Week#7746206/04/02; 15:00:36

Just over the wire is that 1,500 Corning employees will be found on the growing "Bone Pile" by the end of this week. The so-called economic recovery is not doing much for US workers. As always, get out of debt, stash enough cash for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a storage program with nonperishable food and basic necessities. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

- Black Blade

Black BladeOff Market Intervention Hits Gold!#7746306/04/02; 15:04:43

Though no trading market is open right now, it appears that there is big time intervention in the PM markets in an effort to push Gold lower. Currently Gold is lower by $4.10 an ounce. Remember there is no market open right now, so this appears to be institutional intervention. We shall have to see what develops.

- Black Blade

The Victorianrumor or fact - italian CB selling gold ???#7746406/04/02; 15:10:02

I read on another BB that the Italian Central Bank had made a statement about selling gold reserves. I am not sure if someone was saying that scenario MIGHT be the reason, or a similar event was probable in order to push down POG, or whether this is fact. If anyone finds out, please post. I just bought more HGMCY today and am now in a foul mood!!!
goldquestTheir Dying Gasps#7746506/04/02; 15:14:13

If this is the best they can do, then they are doomed!
Cavan ManPOG#7746606/04/02; 15:19:02

I REALLY doubt the Italian CB would be selling gold. What is being sold after hours is PAPER. Where's the gold?
BelgianFloating ....yen...dollar....euro ?#7746706/04/02; 15:19:11

What exactly does "currency-intervention" means ? When Japan sells yen for dollar...what is the yen buyer (US-?) going to do with those declining yen ? What if others sell those dollars for euro and counter the japanese dollar-rise with an euro induced/forced, dollar-decline ? Howhowwwww !
Is there a good soul out there to educate me on the mechanism(s) of currency-intervention(s) ? TIA.

What good is it to intervene, when the different dollar-exchanges have already turned around into a declining *trend* for the dollar ? How can (concerted-US/Japan) intervention stop and reverse a fresh declining trend after 7 years of dollar-rise ? The more that the third euro-player wants to have his saying in this (€/$ parity to encourage € expansion) ?

Does Euroland (or the world's non dollar block) still needs an artificial high dollar-exchange rate, with the US-economy, significantly in structural contraction (cfr. falsifications) ?

Yes, they can make the dollar-decline have a temporary pauze, without trend change. Good for what or who ?
Once the financial brotherhood smelled the blood, you can't stop them storming for currency-trade profits.

IMO, intervention can only work (change things) when all parties clap with both hands and agree in mutual interest.
Than the financial hyenas have to back off or risk burning their fingers, sorry, confetti.
A rising dollar makes it impossible for the pound to join EMU on the right sterling/euro exchange rate. Conflict !?

Is the US still happy with a strong dollar and therefore a continued increasing trade-deficit ? A strong dollar "WAS" OK when the dollar-block was increasingly trading (expanding) with the rest of us. GNP growth figures seem to suggest otherwise and low interest rates plus strong dollar do cultivate the enormous debt-burden into a giant heavyweight, never, never, ever to be redeemed (not even the rent of it) ! A real catch 22 situation, what explains what is ment by the dollar suffocating under its own weight.

A probable modest retreat for POG is yet another excellent buying opportunity for the yellow. Or are Dr. No and Hung Fat (Sinclair/Shultz) having enough force to pay for the luxury of having another opinion and push POG higher in the rise and exposure of its Real Value ?

Thoughts on the outcome of this currency-play-intervention, wellcomed enthousiastically. TIA.

Cavan ManPOG#7746806/04/02; 15:22:57

Lads: Expect volatility at this stage of the game which is almost UP for the other side of the fence.
mikalRe: Gold price and Italian "rumor"#7746906/04/02; 15:24:06

Another gold site, known for its forum food fights, is showing spot market is open, as they do daily at this time. We are seeing the volatility many of us have expected. Naturally some intervention, some profit taking, some fleeing on the Italian rumor. Two points: 1) Of course Italy will sell, as part of the Washington Agreement they have already agreed to limited sales. The Swiss just did it more quietly. 2)Any intervention in NY after hours activity has recently been countered by buying support, in most cases. Intervention may try to counter tomorrow's upward pressure- expected to increase with the return of London trading after the long weekend, & short covering, momentum traders, newly encouraged longs, producer hedge buybacks, and other funds.
Cavan ManPOG#7747006/04/02; 15:29:14

So, you thought it would be easy? Stay long and stay tuned. It is going to be worse/better than '79 depending upon your position. Take care...CM
Black BladeAfter Hours Gold Trades#7747106/04/02; 15:33:13

The remaining question is "what exchange does Gold trade on afetr NY closes and before Sydney Opens?" Somoa maybe?

- Black Blade

YGMDesperation ad Nauseum!!!#7747206/04/02; 15:33:40

Myself I'm Just Smilin!

They been hammering all nite and all day..Imagine the paper dumped to drive spot from a high of $330.00 to $323.00 with all the positives in the market (meaning buyers galore)...
These clowns have been given absolution from on high to do whatever it takes to get the price back to managable levels you can be sure!! The paper Gold market is just one big hilarious joke!! Only thing is it won't be so funny for many when one of the big market manipulators bites the bullet cause the house of 'Paper' is going to take others with it. Shareholders, other Bullion Banks and Wall St are all in the Domino line up...I'll bet the Physical market will be made to appear short of Yellow til the price hikes again, now that every Gold Dealer knows the game is rigged and demand is there!! Another 'Buying opportunity' for us poor folk :>}

mikal@Cavan Man#7747306/04/02; 15:35:28

"Where's the gold?" That's true, the gold will not be sold on the open market. Most or all Central Bank "sales" appear to be swaps between themselves. A prearranged buyer may get a paper certificate of receipt and a digital entry or gold that has no market impact.
JimboGreenspan's comments#7747406/04/02; 15:40:53

Apparently, Fed. Chairman Greenspan's comments today helped the markets gain slightly before closing. In my opinion, this is the same man who was partly (largely?) responsible for our economy's great decline starting in early 2000 when he repeatedly increased interest rates to "beat inflation" (which didn't exist at the time). Does anyone else get angry when they read this master of double-speak's remarks?:

"I suspect the American economy is in an upswing; it's not going to be a dramatic upswing, it can't" Greenspan said Tuesday, adding that the economy isn't likely to match the first-quarter's 5.6 percent annual growth rate.

Cavan Man@ Black Blade#7747506/04/02; 15:42:24

Close. It is New Zealand I believe.
Black BladePush On After Hours POG #7747606/04/02; 15:42:56

It has been suggested that the line of resistence to where the gold shorts "go under for the third time" was at about $330.00/oz. Perhaps this is the actual "line in the sand" that must be vigorously defended at all costs or some big major players suffer horrific losses. Just speculation of course, but it does fit some observations.

- Black Blade

Anyway, off to the gym. Maybe some news will come to light by the time I return.

goldquestMy Best Guess#7747706/04/02; 15:44:33

is that Midway Island "Gold exchange," decided to sell a couple of Gold Eagles.
Black BladeRe: Cavan Man#7747806/04/02; 15:46:55

New Zealand? That would be interesting. A major player (or several) heading them off at the pass so to speak? Maybe to hit Gold in a thinly traded exchange in order to set market direction. A psychological ploy? Who knows. A lot to think about here.

Gotta go.

- Black Blade

Black BladeOil Inventory Builds#7747906/04/02; 15:51:33

The API reports that Oil inventories increased by 6.3 billion bbl. Oil prices are down 48 cents. Not likely to impact Gold much, so there must be another reason here.

- Black Blade

BelgianA plausable explanation.....???#7748006/04/02; 16:03:05

Berlusconi, Italian media-tycoon and Euroland dissonant, at the dollar's (and his private) service !? A Welteke stunt to help the dollar interventionists ? Another episode in the Gold drama of short or longer duration ?

This type of repetitive Gold maneuvering will only result in renewed and stronger/broader, attention/commitment, to Gold's cause ! Not per sé a negative in the somewhat longer run (rocksolid fundamentals). Mineprofits into the Physical ad repetitum !!!

HoratioBullion Banks#7748106/04/02; 16:47:38

IMHO The Bullion banks have told the Central Banks "You need to lend me more gold,or you may never get back what I owe you!
The Bullion banks are going to try to trade thier way to getting back the Gold they owe.Central banks will lend them more gold for this activity.I believe that at the end of one year the Central banks will have thier gold back,the Bullion banks will be out of business having taking the country and Central Banks to the brink of disaster.Over the next year they will try to get as much gold from the market place as possible using ADDITIONAL gold loans from the Central banks to gyrate the market prices in order to trade thier way out.Trading is what Bullion banks do ,therefore they must trade thier way out.
As a gold bug "buy the dips ",theres going to be plenty of them.

BoilermakerDon't mess with the tax man#7748206/04/02; 17:04:17

Reuters Business Report
Ex-Tyco CEO Indicted on Sales Tax Evasion

By Philip Klein and Jeanne King

NEW YORK (Reuters) - L. Dennis Kozlowski, who lived large as he raked in nearly a half billion dollars as chief of Tyco International Ltd., on Tuesday was charged with dodging $1 million in sales taxes on paintings by such

A day after his stunning resignation as head of embattled conglomerate Tyco (NYSE:TYC - News), Kozlowski was arraigned in a New York criminal court and accused of scheming to avoid paying sales tax on more than $13 million in artwork he bought over the last nine months.

Manhattan District Attorney Robert Morgenthau charges that Kozlowski, 55, conspired with unnamed art dealers and Tyco employees to dodge an 8.25 percent sales tax by making it look as though paintings that he purchased in New York were shipped to Tyco offices in Exeter, New Hampshire.

The indictment says he accomplished this in some cases by instructing Tyco employees to sign bogus invoices that would show the receipt of the paintings in New Hampshire.

"For somebody who was highly paid, to fail to pay over $1 million in sales taxes is a serious crime," Morgenthau said. "Over the years, there has been too much winking at this kind of activity, and we don't intend to wink."

In mid-December, the indictment charges Kozlowski went so far as to have five empty cardboard boxes shipped to Tyco offices in the place of the paintings, which included work by impressionist master Claude Monet, valued at $8.8 million.

Investors will be reassured that evil CEO's are being purged. Everyone can now go back in the water, no more sharks. Al Capone move over, we have a new mafia. I'm expecting to see a St. Valentines type massacre on Wall Street coming soon.

AristotleA helping hand for Sir Black Blade (msg#: 77463)#7748306/04/02; 17:07:19

I read with interest your 5:04pm Eastern Time message entitled "Off Market Intervention Hits Gold!" You said, "there is no market open right now, so this appears to be institutional intervention."

I don't want to find myself in a position of second-guessing you, but you might want to tuck this away in your box of tools for future use.

The New York Mercantile Exchange offers after-hours trading of their standard COMEX Gold futures contracts through their ACCESS program. It opens for trade at 3:15pm Eastern Time and runs through the night until 20 minutes before standard COMEX trade begins again each morning.

So as you might now imagine, at the time of your post the situation you've described could as likely be explained as the effects of private paper longs having had nearly two hours to show how small their hands really are.

Or... maybe these parties are simply (and wisely) stepping out from under the shadow of the piano? <wink>

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

AristotleHoratio, it won't be so easy at that for the bullion banks#7748406/04/02; 17:15:33

You suggested, "Over the next year they will try to get as much gold from the market place as possible using ADDITIONAL gold loans from the Central banks."

Item 4 of the Central Bank Agreement on Gold (Washington Agreement) effectively shuts off this avenue. They boldly wrote and posted the new Rules of the Game. How else does an institution insulate itself from what would otherwise be unimaginable political pressure?

Stepping toward Free Gold.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

HoratioGet out of Debt, pay cash and Buy the Dips#7748506/04/02; 17:26:00

You had better have a strong stomach if you are going to stay in the gold markets !The Central banks are making additional loans to the Bullion banks ,gold that they can use to gyrate the markets with as they try to trade thier way out!
Youe emotions will will be on a Rollar Coaster for the next year.In my opinion ,if you are on margin or options trading,thay are going to take you to the cleaners.Thats where they will get thier gold back from.The Bullion banks are really traders and they need volitilty to skim thier markets.
I believe the Central banks are making additional GOLD loans to them so they can trade thier way out.They now have the ability to gyrate these markets.At the end of all this the Central banks will have thier gold back and the Bullion banks will be gone.In the mean time pay cash ,get out of debt,buy the dips and go fishing,get away from the gyrations that are sure to happin.

HoratioAristotle Rules ?#774866/4/02; 17:41:25

Since when do greedy people follow the rules?When did that start? I suggest Italian and Swiss gold may be lent to them,are they covered by U.S. Rules? If that won't work how about starting a War in India forcing them to disgorge thier gold in order to pay for a War.They forced Argentina out of thier gold..Nothing is beyond the realm of possibility when they need to repay gold they don't have.War ,Revolution or simply taking advantage of those in debt to squeeze them out of gold or money to get gold with.Hence my suggestion to get out of debt,don't margin your gold stocks or option trade them.Thats thier vehicle to getting your gold and shaking it loose from you.Don't play thier game they are masters at it.
JimboGold Mining Outlook?#774876/4/02; 18:02:07

What's wrong with this picture? An off-beat newsletter, "Gold Mining Outlook," today advised readers to sell their gold now. Has anyone ever heard of the newsletter's editor, Steven Jon Kaplan, or tracked his advice to determine whether he knows what he's talking about? Here's what Kaplan had to say:

"SUMMARY: SELL YOUR GOLD MINING SHARES!!! My current outlook for gold and gold mining shares has deteriorated to VERY STRONGLY BEARISH, the first time that such a stance has been justified since I began this online newsletter. Many junior gold mining shares are now trading at the same levels that they were in the mid-1990s, when the gold price itself was above $400 per ounce, and many of these companies are still losing money. Those which are actually making a profit are selling at P/E ratios typical of the Nasdaq in its heyday. Speculative juniors have been far outperforming their senior counterparts in recent weeks, as is typical of any market near the top of a bubble. Just because the gold share bubble is not quite as exaggerated as the Nasdaq was in March 2000 doesn't mean that it isn't a bubble all the same. Brokerages are generally very positive toward gold mining shares, continually raising their price targets, and even those who are supposedly bearish on gold are using phrases such as "fully valued at current levels," fearful of looking foolish by actually predicting a price drop, which is again typical of any bubble, when bears are afraid to be bears. Besides myself, there is not a single gold analyst—not one--willing to state definitively on the record that the price of gold is going below $300 per ounce, even though such a decline would be a mere 10% move, whereas many analysts are speaking publicly of $350, $400, and higher. Speculative call buying on gold mining shares, traders’ commitments on gold and on currencies which correlate with the gold price, insider selling by gold mining executives, insider issuance of new shares (Newmont, Harmony, Goldcorp, Agnico-Eagle, Echo Bay), and investor bullishness (now 86% on gold itself according to Market Vane, 100% on gold funds according to Investors’ Intelligence) are at even higher levels than at the February 1996 peak, and are surpassed only by the January 1980 super-euphoria. The kind of bubble which happened in 1979 can only occur in the late stages of a gold bull market; it is very likely that the HUI index of gold mining shares will be at current or even lower levels eight or nine years from now, before such a final bubble is ready to occur. Commercials are likely net short more than 90 thousand contracts of COMEX gold. Physical demand for gold has dropped more than 20% in many areas, including South Asian imports and professional jewelry orders, which are critical to sustaining a gold price above $300."

Cavan ManCOMEX#774886/4/02; 18:06:27

When are those guys going to start working a full day? They do have a FEW tons to sell.
AristotleHoratio, "RotG" is common phrase dating back to the dutiful adherence to international settlements pre-WWI#774896/4/02; 18:09:26

It can be argued that the widespread stability of monetary structures at that time were due to a single-minded focus on playing by those "Rules."

However, that was doomed to fade in time as democratic populations found greater footing in the power of the vote -- pressing governments to sacrifice the rigid rules (i.e., fixed international currency exchange rate) in favor of domestic favors (i.e., exchange flexibility for beggar-thy-neighbor attempts at fuller employment through export advantages.)

All of that notwithstanding, in your post to me are you, in fact, telling me that September 26, 1999 was an idle hoax? That 15 Central Banks came together and produced a meaningless document -- a kind of perversion from too much time on their hands?

I'm listening, but I'm havin' a hard time buyin' what you're sellin!

I do, however, agree largely with one of your earlier conclusions to the *approximate* effect that in the end the Central Banks will have "their" Gold and the Bullion Banks will move on to other activities.

Freeeeeee Goooooooold! Have you anything to add to this, Sir Belgian?

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Carl HOff hours trading#774906/4/02; 18:20:52

I suspect the comment below about this being an act of desparation to TRY to set market direction is correct. I am sure the Japanese Housewives will use it as an opportunity to by more...
JackFlashRegarding Gold mining outlook...#774916/4/02; 18:27:33

I wonder if this guy (Kaplan) will issue an "extra special extremely bearish outlook" in his next newsletter. I've been tracking his predictions since last summer and he seems to be increasing the tenor of his bearish (wrong) calls on gold with each update. Comparing this move in gold to the nasdaq bubble is absurd. I think he may either have a hidden agenda or has a problem admitting that he has been wrong.
PizzThis Kaplan Guy#774926/4/02; 18:56:07

If memory serves me correctly, he posts next door @Kitco off and on and was flaunting a bunch of gold calls that he wrote a month or two back (late fall 2002 expiration). Said he just couldn't pass up the premium and was selling as many as people would buy and ridiculing the buyers.

He's so far underwater right now, and thinks he has a following, that he'll probably write anything to try to get out of these positions.


Gandalf the WhiteSir Pizz --- Re: the other Kaplan !#774936/4/02; 19:14:54

--- I do believe that there is an age difference between the one at Kitco and the one that periodically writes this webpage. It just goes to show that someone is not always correct like you and I.
PS: what happened at the BOARD meeting ?

PizzThink the Banks aren't sweating it out???#774946/4/02; 19:19:40

Did a house refi/debt consolidation last month to reduce bills and tap my equity while it's still available at low rates.

Took the bank 7 working days to close - must have been a record. Rather than pay my listed obligations directly (like they used to), they just dumped the cash into my checking account and told me I could pay my creditors at my leisure.

Today I tried to wire money out to my brokerage account, which was a repeat wire that they had on file, and 1/2 hour before wire cut off time, they called and said their wire department could not confirm the recipient account and wanted me to confirm it, but they could not promise the wire would be sent today. The bank branch is one block from my office, and after a very strongly worded chat with the Manager (in person), guess what? There was no account problem and my wire was sent.

Also, in our business, we take large personal checks for purchases. At times, when we have less than credit worthy customers, we take the checks to the customers banks and have cashiers checks made out to the company while the funds are still there, rather than take chance on depositing the check and having something else clear before our check. In the last two months, nearly every bank in the NW will not do this any more - UNLESS WE OPEN A BUSINESS ACCOUNT SO THEY CAN TRANSFER THE FUNDS INTO OUR ACCOUNT AT THEIR BANK.

Cash must be at a premium, because the banks sure don't seem to want to part with it easily.

Money, get you some, and the shinier the better.


Cavan ManComing to your town soon......#774956/4/02; 19:30:33

Reserve Bank of Australia Increases Key Rate to 4.75% (Update3)
By Victoria Batchelor

Sydney, June 5 (Bloomberg) -- The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its benchmark interest rate for the second time in a month, boosting it a quarter percentage point to cool a housing boom and consumer spending that may fuel inflation.

Governor Ian Macfarlane and his board raised the overnight cash target rate to 4.75 percent. All 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expected the rise, and the median forecast is for the rate to climb to 5.25 percent by year's end.

It comes just hours before a government report is expected to show gross domestic product expanded 4.6 percent in the first quarter from a year ago. That would be the fastest annual growth in almost three years. The inflation rate is 2.9 percent, near the bank's 3 percent ceiling, and Macfarlane said it may accelerate next year.

Cavan ManPoor Japan.....#774966/4/02; 19:32:30

.....without exports they're doomed.

Japan's 1st-Quarter Capital Spending Falls 5.2% (Update2)
By Yoshiko Matsushita

Tokyo, June 5 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese companies spent less on factories and equipment in the first quarter, suggesting that a recovery from the third recession in a decade isn't assured.

Capital spending by companies, excluding banks, insurers and other financial firms, fell 5.2 percent from the fourth quarter, seasonally adjusted, the Ministry of Finance said. From a year earlier, it fell 16.8 percent following the fourth quarter's 14.5 percent decline.

The world's second-largest economy probably grew 1.5 percent in the first quarter after shrinking for three quarters as exports and consumer spending rose, according to a Bloomberg survey. Still, business spending could put the brakes on a rebound.

Cavan ManPPOG (Paper Price of Gold)#774976/4/02; 19:33:37

PPOG is really jumping around eh?
AristotleSir Cavan Man "COMEX...They do have a FEW tons to sell."#774986/4/02; 19:41:04

Contrary to popular perception, COMEX actually doesn't have an ounce to sell.

And what of all that Registered and Eligible "inventory" present on the books of the licensed depositories -- Scotia Mocatta, HSBC, and Brinks? Not an ounce of it belongs to the Exchange.

It is entirely possible at any given time that some of the Eligible ounces people might see listed at Scotia, Honkers & Shankers or at Brinks is actually my own property, completely unavailable to COMEX participants.

How is this possible? If I happen to have kilo bars in temporary safe storage at those institutions, say, in the process of conversion/exchange for the extra safety (and a potential premium play) on European oldies, then they are listed among the "Eligible" inventory of those institutions. This doesn't signify that the Exchange owns it, but rather that it meets the specs for delivery in satisfaction of a standard Contract and is "Eligible" (as opposed to "Registered") in the sense that I haven't had it officially parceled and registered into standard delivery "warrants."

When my favorite Gold broker ("Hi, guy!") tells me that my Swiss Gold francs and German Gold marks have arrived on his end of the deal, orders are given by each of us for an exchange of our forms of gold.

Now pay attention here. If his account is with an institution outside of the COMEX triumvirate, then the level of their Eligible inventory will fall as Brinks hauls my kilo bars away, replacing them with a form of Gold that is off the radar screen -- coins do not match the standard spec for delivery against a contract, and thus are not listed among Eligible inventory.

Eventually, this Gold coin leaves NY as I bring it closer to home, but prior to that, and at all points whether in the form of kilo bars or coins, it remained my property and was never the Exchange's to sell. The Exchange merely matches (anonymously) a paper long against a paper short, and should it come down to delivery issues in those rare cases, all eyes look to the short to deliver the Gold through a warrant, the exchange of which is done through the auspices of the Exchange and its licensed "depositories." (Again, these are depositories of other people's Gold.)

But this rarely happens because true commercial interests don't move their Gold through the Exchange, showing up merely to hedge cashflow. And the big speculators? They're in it for cash. And the little speculators? They exhaust their resources on the margins, and can't afford to stand for delivery for the full bodied contracts they theoretically represent. (There's an exception, but that shall remains the topic of another post.)

So as you can see, in a crisis of confidence in paper and counterparties, it is more likely to see a SELLOFF of America's form of Gold Benchmark (that is, the COMEX Gold Contract) rather than a price runup. Then, out of discredit the market's attention will shift to the phsical Gold market where the price (premium??) will break free from the dying paper proxy.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

PizzGandalf the White#774996/4/02; 19:47:47

My apology to either or both of the Kaplan's for the confusion, BUT IMHO, one is off base with the newsletter, and the other is probably still underwater on his calls (smile).

Ahh, the board meeting(s). . . .rumor had it that the CFO (me) was just about ready to walk (wonder where that started???). My CEO, a notorious yeller and screamer, was a bit on the passive side, especially when I justifiably let loose with a little of my Scotch-Irish, German, and Sicilian temperment.

The bottom line to them was that they had to either start making money or quit spending what we don't have on acquisitions and expansions, cut marketing expenses rather dramatically, and properly capitalize the companies we do have. If we don't, our finance company will be sitting in my offices opening the mail.

I think I got their attention since I reminded them of their personal guarantees, but so far the only action has been for me to slide our payables out to 90 days rather than 25. I don't think I'm the only CFO doing the same thing.

Our vendors are starting to scream already.

Cash is real tough to come by right now - everywhere.

Hope to post a bit more, now that I'm taking a DGAS attitude, been some good stuff on the board the last week.


Black BladeRe: Aristotle, Jimbo, Jack, Pizz, etc.#775006/4/02; 19:50:59

Aristotle – Thanks, I had forgot all about "Access" trading - silly me. I guess that the institutional trading may be the principal reason for running the markets in after the regular Comex trading hours. I notice that the POG has rebounded some as well. I have always been suspicious of thinly traded markets as they are not usually open to the general public during regular hours and can be used to artificially set market sentiment prior to or after trading on major exchanges. I should have remembered about Access trading though. Again thanks and keep up the good work.

Jimbo, Jack, and Pizz – I always wondered why someone like SJ Kaplan would place his bets on COTs and ignore the big picture of the world around him. I notice that he does not relate his prognostications to possible rising interest rates, threat of war, US dollar weakness, etc. However, he has been "Bearish", "Significantly bearish", "Strongly Bearish", and "Very Strongly Bearish" (maybe even "Double Extreme Bearish" for all I know) during the majority of this multi-month Gold rally. One must look at every possible variable and come to judgment of how market "might" react under current and possible near term conditions. I remember when he also called for people to short ebay and in the midst of the bubble. Anyone who had followed that advice would have been in the poor house in no time. Sure they were overvalued stocks trading in a speculative bubble, however, no one has consistently been able to time the markets. Cheers!

- Black Blade

sectorSuperpower [Read USA] Retreat: Bowing to N-blackmail [From Pakistan]#775016/4/02; 19:57:09

[...The message is loud and clear to other potential rogue states that if they could clandestinely acquire nuclear weapons, then the US and the rest of the international community would keep off. It would confirm the potent role of nuclear weapons in international relations.

The western leaders praised General Musharraf for more than four months for his speech of January 12, 2002 and his commitment to stop cross-border terrorism. Then, on May 31, 2002 they spoke about the possibility of an Indo-Pak war consequent upon the continuing cross-border terrorism. In other words, the sole superpower and its allies were not able to prevail upon Pakistan to abide by its commitment and invoke Security Council resolution 1373 (which mandates states not to support terrorism).

Further, Bin Laden, Mullah Omar and the leadership cadres of the Al-Qaida and the Taliban are today in Pakistan and regrouping their forces. In spite of Pakistan being an ally of the US, the terrorists were able to move from Afghanistan to Pakistan in November-December 2001 before the Indo-Pak border stand-off began and while the Pakistani army fully manned the Afghan border.

Out of 22 leaders of the Al-Qaida, only two are accounted for. Most of the high profile operations of the elite US and British forces on Afghan-Pakistan border have been futile.
The US vice-president and the director of FBI have asserted that new terrorist threats are inevitable and cannot be stopped. Yet, they seem oblivious of the fact that today the epicentre of terrorism is Pakistan, from where the Al-Qaida is busy plotting new attacks on the US.

The Al-Qaida used to proclaim that they had defeated one superpower (the Soviet Union) and they would surely defeat the second (the US). The US's current indulgent behaviour towards Pakistan would appear to validate their claims.
A slap in the face from India to the US strategy in Afganistan/Pakistan.

It makes valid points regarding the failure to identify and neutralize Pakistan terror targets because they constitue...well...most of Pakistan.

The only strategy that makes sense is the one that has India as our secret hit man against Pakistan. They move in from the East, we move to block the baddest guys from the West. Only time will tell on this one.

All those troups...just sitting around...playing cards...eating food...getting bored. Is there to be a war?

Check with Mahendra.

Cavan ManAristotle#775026/4/02; 20:01:19

Thanks for the lesson. We're in complete agreement. I was trying (in vain) to be a little funny. Comex like the NYSE (IMHO) is a freak show. I always ask myself; self: WWBGD (what would ben graham do?)
Black BladeCrisis looms as demand booms for natural gas#775036/4/02; 20:22:35


While public worry tends to focus on supplies of crude oil and pump prices at gasoline stations, the real gas problem could be brewing in natural gas. Experts say falling U.S. production and the difficulties involved in getting new supplies from North America or abroad could make for a severe supply crunch at worst or highly volatile prices at best for the next several years.

Worries for consumers

The best evidence for this is what happened during the winter of 2000-01, when short supplies drove prices up from their long-term average of about $2.25 per Mcf to more than $10 per Mcf at one point in January 2001. Driven by those extraordinary prices, drilling surged: According to oil-field supply company Baker Hughes, the number of rigs drilling for gas nearly tripled from a low of 362 in April 1999 to a peak of 1,068 in July 2001. "The entire industry knew: I drill gas wells, I get rich," says Mark Papa, chairman of EOG Resources, a large independent gas producer. "A huge effort was put in place to drill gas wells." But despite that effort, gas production barely budged. From 18.8 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 1999, domestic gas production crept up to 19.4 Tcf in 2001 — a 3% increase.

"What in the world explains why you had to double gas well completions just to stay flat?" asks Matthew Simmons, chairman of energy investment bank Simmons & Co. "I think we're in very scary shape." Analysts are alarmed by the fact that gas wells peter out much more quickly now than they used to, thanks to technology that lets producers drain reservoirs more quickly and the fact that reservoirs tend to be smaller.

Even Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan fretted about this phenomenon in a November 2001 speech, noting that new wells now give up 50% of their recoverable reserves in the first year of operation vs. 25% in the 1980s. As the economy recovers, Greenspan said, burgeoning gas demand "will be putting significant pressure on the reserve base."

Supply crunch coming

Add a recovering economy, the chance of a hot summer or a cold winter, and the fact that strapped electrical utilities have turned to gas-fired plants to add enormous generating capacity that will compete for gas supplies, and pessimists see a serious gas crunch coming. Papa says forecasts show U.S. gas production falling 4% this year and demand whittling down the record amounts of gas in underground storage by the beginning of the heating season Nov. 1. That could lead to a supply crunch in both the USA and Canada by next year, he says.

Simmons says the crunch could show up even sooner. "You have this unbelievable mountain of new power plants that assumed there would be plentiful natural gas," he says. But when prices fell back from $10 per Mcf in January 2001 to $2-$3 per Mcf last summer, drilling collapsed. "We're going to pay a painful price for that by the third or fourth quarter."

Black Blade: This is a very good article and it presents the possible coming supply crunch just as I have described here for quite some time. Natural gas is the real sleeper in the energy equation and is easily overlooked as everyone's attention is focused on oil and gas prices. I still believe that we could be setting ourselves up for a supply crunch late this year or early next year. Natural gas storage is larger but that is due to more storage available (it also includes "working" and "cushion" gas). Roughly only about half the new excess NG in storage is immediately useable. There are also several more new NG-fired power generating facilities in the US. Virtually every new power plant is natural gas fired due to its desired clean-burning/environmentally friendly qualities. Unfortunately we have nothing to fall back on when supply does not keep up with demand. We could easily write off any long awaited economic recovery as without energy we are dead in the water. Energy is the lifeblood of any economy – without it the economy dies.

AristotleC-Man "What would Ben Graham do?"#775046/4/02; 20:27:23

Well, if I missed your humor in the first go-round, I can surely find it here.

Saddly, I don't imagine ol' Ben is buying any Gold these days, but on the up side, he sure ain't sellin' any, either!

I, on the other hand, would ask myself, "Self, WWLGD?" (what would Lou Gramm do?)

Probably he'd look at the Gold market, then the international -- "Foreigner" -- scene, and then sing his band's 1981 classic, "Urgent."

Gold. Get you some as Lou would do. --- Aristotle

Black BladeNYMEX Trading Rules – Gold#775056/4/02; 20:32:52

Below are some of the NYMEX Rules for Gold (for now):

NYMEX Trading – Gold

Trading Hours

Futures and Options: Open outcry trading is conducted from 8:20 A.M. until 1:30 P.M.

After-hours futures trading is conducted via the NYMEX ACCESS® internet-based trading platform beginning at 3:15 P.M. on Mondays through Thursdays and concluding at 8:00 A.M. the following day. On Sundays, the session begins at 7:00 P.M. All times are New York time.

Maximum Daily Price Fluctuation

Futures: Initial price limit, based upon the preceding day's settlement price is $75 per ounce. Two minutes after either of the two most active months trades at the limit, trades in all months of futures and options will cease for a 15-minute period. Trading will also cease if either of the two active months is bid at the upper limit or offered at the lower limit for two minutes without trading.

Trading will not cease if the limit is reached during the final 20 minutes of a day's trading. If the limit is reached during the final half hour of trading, trading will resume no later than 10 minutes before the normal closing time.

When trading resumes after a cessation of trading, the price limits will be expanded by increments of 100%.

Options: No price limits.

Last Trading Day

Futures: Trading terminates at the close of business on the third to last business day of the maturing delivery month.

Options: Expiration occurs on the second Friday of the month prior to the delivery month of the underlying futures contract. Beginning with the expiration of the December 2002 contract, options will expire on the fourth business day prior to the end of the month preceding the options contract month. If the expiration day falls on a Friday or immediately prior to an Exchange holiday, expiration will occur on the previous business day.

GoldnSilver2002Central bank double cross?#775066/4/02; 20:47:28

Something just occurred to me as i watched the blatant after market,(thus no support),dip in p.o.g. Sometimes i have assumed that all the big banks were in on this,but wait a minute!What about greed ,what if a smaller bank was buying up this gold,or suddenly decided to become number one they could buy gold and sit,using it against any fiat debt/liabilities.Thus when the crash hit and their bigger brother banks are falling hard,they will not only rise,they will be the only ones standing,literally holding a huge portion of the worlds wealth and trust?

Frankly at this point they have become desperate and every time they drive down,more is bought.Why?Because people know a bargain,and soon they will recognize the value.I believe at some point a major player(Bank) will come along and knock this one past 354,knowing full well,they will be tipping the scales on the cabal.There's a renegade in every crowd,as soon as one breaks the ranks,the rest will fall in the wake.Oh well,there is more of us than them!

Conclusion:This thing is wound so tight a fly could set it off.Its not when will gold go up,its more like how much more bad news is coming??!!!?

Black BladeNuclear rivals exchange insults#775076/4/02; 20:48:07


The war of words between India and Pakistan took a dramatic and highly personal turn yesterday as the first encounter in months between their leaders degenerated into an angry slanging match.

An Asian summit in the city of Almaty in Kazakhstan provided an ideal opportunity for President Pervaiz Musharraf of Pakistan and Atal Behair Vajpayee, India's prime minister, to talk peace. They used it instead to trade insults.

Hopes that President Putin of Russia might mediate and avert the threat of nuclear conflict faded as it became clear that Gen Musharraf and Mr Vajpayee were more interested in hurling abuse at one another.

Black Blade: How anyone deduced a rumor of a truce is beyond me. Sounds like a prelude to war – maybe nuclear war.

Cavan ManAristotle#775086/4/02; 20:59:59

Now, that's, "Takin Care of Business"! I understand Mssr. Bachman's house has a gift shop in the foyer. Think I'll let it "Ride, Ride Ride...."
Black BladeMarket Wrap Up (Puplava – The Other One)#775096/4/02; 21:05:55


It Looks Like WAR! to Me

It's been my task to create the graph-of-the-day. When I searched today's news, I picked Kitco's 24-hour gold graph. Why? Because it blatantly shows the battle for gold. Notice the second graph which shows gold's price in Hong Kong, London, and New York. What happened after the close? Well, I'm not an expert, but I can tell you that after living with Jim and being educated with building our Precious Metals page, that someone, somewhere, has declared war on gold. The scuttlebutt in the chat rooms is that commercial banks with heavy derivatives and highly-hedged companies are in real trouble with the rising price of gold. Of course, I typed The Perfect Financial Storm and Storm Watch Updates. I know what Jim thinks! First: gold and silver have been in a twenty-year bear market, second: in times of uncertainty, people seek a safe haven, and third: rogue traders are betting on the wrong side. It's my educated guess that pros and peons alike think today's economy is a bit unstable.

Black Blade: Jim Puplava's wife pounds the keyboard tonight. A couple of "interesting" gold graphs at the top of the page. Maybe it is war.

Black BladeThe weakest link#775106/4/02; 21:11:54

Commentary: Weak job growth threatens recovery


NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- A dearth of new jobs and, consequently, a large number of people out of work, are threatening the nascent economic recovery. While the unemployment rate and payroll numbers do tend to lag behind the rest of the economy, they are droopier than usual, this time around. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits now stands at a 19-year high.

Black Blade: The economic recovery is far from certain – so larger growth in the "Bone Pile" is likely.

Black BladeIBM Fires 1,500 U.S. Chip Workers, Realigns Division #775116/4/02; 21:21:00


Armonk, New York, June 4 (Bloomberg) -- International Business Machines Corp. fired 1,500 U.S. workers in its unprofitable Microelectronics unit and will realign the division to help climb out of a sales slump, a spokesman said.

Black Blade: These "Bones" are just "chips" of the old block, now headed for the growing "Bone Pile".

Black BladeWho Gains From The Dollars Pain?#775126/4/02; 21:27:50


"From a manufacturer's point of view, the dollar was 25 to 30 percent overvalued," said Frank Vargo, international vice president at the National Association of Manufacturers. "It's cost us a lot in exports, which have fallen $140 billion [on an annual basis], largely as result of the dollar."

U.S. manufacturers, who fell into a deep recession after businesses abruptly stopped spending money last year, have cried long and loud for policy makers to intervene and bring the dollar down. They haven't had much luck getting the U.S. Treasury Department to act against the dollar, but other forces may now be doing the job, which will tend to push their sales and earnings higher.

Manufacturers and some analysts have said a weaker dollar will spur greater production, hiring and business spending, which Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has called crucial to the broader U.S. economic recovery.

Black Blade: The US Dollar should fall much further if the US economy is to even begin to recover. Then other nations would also like to weaken their currencies so their economies can recover – take note of Japan's numerous currency interventions.

goldenboy@YGM re:Debt Crisis & Real Estate; Rees-Mogg etc.#775136/4/02; 21:37:20

Ultimately I believe real estate will go down; but only after possibly doubling again; I would not be surprised at a 10 banger. My parents saw their home go up 30 fold from 1961. If interest rates on a real basis are negative, people put their money into things. The banks and guv will welcome more liquidity, more tax revenue, more loans. Bond holders will lose.
I like Davidson and Rees-Mogg; read two of their books with great interest and subscribed to their newsletter for years. Their timing in the early 90`s was totally off however. Very bad investment record.
I think we are too quick to assume everything will go down the tube immediately. I still have my dried food from the 80`s. This thing will not happen overnight. (complete ruin) There may be a roll-over type event but I think a lot of water will go under the bridge before ruination.

Black BladeYen Falls vs Dollar, Euro as Bank of Japan Sells Its Currency#775146/4/02; 22:10:15


New York, June 4 (Bloomberg) -- The yen fell against the dollar as Japan sold its currency for the fourth day in two weeks to stem a rally that threatens export growth and a nascent recovery in the world's second-biggest economy.

Black Blade: A race to devalue between the Yen and the US dollar?

Black BladeThe Battling Kaplans#775156/4/02; 22:20:37


(From Leonard Kaplan of Prospector Asset Management) - This afternoon gold and silver have sold off sharply in after-hours trading, with gold, at one point, down about $4, in rather illiquid conditions. I had calls from rather emotional clients, who were naturally quite concerned about their long positions in the market. From what I can gather, a major newsletter advisor advised his clientele to sell their gold today, and the electronic newsletters arrived late in the day. Perhaps I am wrong, but I see the large drop in prices in both gold and silver, late in the day, as an aberration. Separating emotion from intellect, nothing has substantively changed in the market. The USD was still lower on the day, the stock market was still lower on the day, and I still believe that the gold and silver markets are headed higher.

Black Blade: He may be referring to SJ Kaplan who reportedly has given a sell recommendation (again and again). Nevertheless, I am "VERY STRONGLY BULLISH" on Gold.

mikalDollar falls against Yen#775166/4/02; 22:22:40

Dollar Gives Up Early Gain
June 04, 2002 11:26 PM ET By Yoshiko Mori
TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar gave up its early, modest gains against the yen by late morning on Wednesday as profit-taking interest outweighed support from Japan's weaker-than-expected corporate survey results, traders said.
Many traders said the most influential factor for the market now is the trend in global capital flows rather than economic indicators.
"The market's focus is now clearly on the trend in the U.S. asset market, and in that environment economic indicators from Japan and elsewhere have to take a back seat," said Minori Takeuchi, vice president at Chase Manhattan Bank.
........During early U.S. trading hours, Japanese monetary authorities confirmed they had intervened in the foreign exchange market, for the fourth day in two weeks. That sent the dollar up around one yen to 124.34 yen in New York.
Senior Japanese Finance Ministry official Zembei Mizoguchi said on Wednesday that he would keep watch over foreign exchange, adding authorities were always prepared to act if needed.
But traders remain unconvinced that Japan would be able to effect lasting change in the yen's value against the dollar, since foreign money has been flowing into Japanese assets.
........The European single currency rose to a fresh 16-month high of $0.9453 in New York on Tuesday, staging a recovery of over 10 percent from this year's low around $0.8563 in early February. ($1=124.19 Yen)
@Black Blade- Volatility increasing in the Forex markets?

mikalCorrection#775176/4/02; 22:44:02

Foreign Exchange Markets, not "Forex".
Black BladeDeclining dollar set to boost gold #775186/4/02; 22:51:21


JOHANNESBURG - Increasing doubts about the dollar's ability to buck its recent downward trend has sent a number of economists back to the drawing board. Just last week brokers Societe Generale softened its bearish outlook on gold due in the main to its outlook for the US dollar.

But if JP Morgan's highly regarded technical strategy team's latest hypothesis is anything to go by, the Bank Of Japan could be shelling out plenty more in the years ahead if it is to retain a policy of keeping the yen under wraps.

Black Blade: It would appear that the US dollar is likely to slide further in spite of intervention. Foreign investors are leaving US markets. Consider that it was the $1.2 billion/day inflows in US bond markets from foreign investors that padded the books. Now those funds are going back home (except what the currency "interventionists" are spending).

SpartacusSocrates(Another) - Plato(FOA) - Aristotle#7751906/05/02; 01:38:19

Aristotle (6/4/02; 19:41:04MT - msg#: 77498)

Once again a masterpiece from the "Ancient Greeks" here on USA Gold. Very astute and worthy of a place of honor among the gilded opinions for which I hereby nominate the post.

Gandalf the WhiteAristotle (6/4/02; 19:41:04MT - msg#: 77498)#7752006/05/02; 02:00:50

Spartacus (06/05/02; 01:38:19MT - msg#: 77519)
Sir Spartacus said: "I hereby nominate the post."
AND I am pleased to be the first "Second" to that Nomination.

Belgian@ Aristotle#7752106/05/02; 02:04:33

Sir, read (re-read) "Revisionist vieuw of the Great Depression" by Antal Fekete (Safehaven-archives).
This to understand "WHY", "WHAT", is happening now. Sorry for being so short. Timeshortage.

Sector (#77501) : Good insights from you ! Thanks.

TopazBB re Puplova#7752206/05/02; 02:45:45

That was really perculiar this morning (here) ! NY Gold closes @ 4am local and I usually get my first Au report @ 6am...$ the time I'd got to work (7.30), Reuters were reporting $325.1.....all this 3.5 hrs after NY close and 3 hrs before Syd open.......MOST curious!!
Black BladeRe: Topaz#7752306/05/02; 02:57:03

I think we have discovered the "line in the sand" for the POG. Once the POG hit $330 an ounce it was beaten back. Then it was a matter of beating back the price in an illiquid market in order to set market direction. So far the POG has remain well below $330 an ounce and above $325 an ounce. Still the fundamentals are the same - weak USD, relatively higher petroleum prices, falling equities markets, threat of nuclear confrontation, etc. Nothing significant has changed in the "big picture". A misstep here or there could trigger another spike in the POG.

- Black Blade

Black BladeCar Bombing Kills 17 In Israel#7752406/05/02; 03:08:46

Here we go again. Islamic Jihad has taken responsibility for a car bombing that killed 17 Israelis and wounded 35 on a bus in Megiddo Junction (northern Israel). This could kick up petroleum prices again as violence in the Middle East is likely to pick up after an uneasy calm despite Israeli troops and tanks moving back into West Bank towns. So far this does not seem to move the market futures in the US or markets in Europe.

- Black Blade

Black BladeWorldcom Considers 16,000 Job Cuts#7752506/05/02; 03:16:10


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - WorldCom Inc., the No. 2 U.S. long-distance telephone company, is considering cutting 20 percent of its workforce, or about 16,000 jobs, in a bid to trim costs and turn the ailing firm around, USA Today said on Wednesday.

Black Blade: More "Phone Bones" off to the growing "Bone Pile". Yet another major Job cut announcement hours after Alan Greenspan said that such announcements were fading. Rumor has it that WorldCom may be filing for bankruptcy in coming weeks or months. All this while former CEO still owes $360 million in company sponsored loans. Hmmm…

TopazCavan Man (6/4/02; 19:30:33MT - msg#: 77495)#7752606/05/02; 03:28:07

What a quandrary the RBA has to deal with C-Man. Firstly the R/E bubble, given as the primary reason for the rate hike, is almost exclusively a Sydney-Melbourne phenomenon. Can you imagine the angst directed at the Governor from the rest of regional Oz who are NOT benefiting from increased R/E valuations AND are also suffering as Primary produce goes down the girgler due to the appreciating A$.
Fiat economies...a Jugglers worst Nightmare.

TownCrierHEADLINE: Gold Hits 4 1/2 Year High - Security From Securities#7752706/05/02; 03:58:25


Gold rose to a four and a half year high yesterday, extending this year's rally to eighteen percentage points, as investors sought an alternative to volatile stocks and bonds.

Investors are buying gold in search of better returns and protection from a disruption to financial markets should India and Pakistan go to war....

Nothing you didn't already know.


TownCrierHEADLINE: In darkest days, gold regains allure#7752806/05/02; 04:04:54

by Andrew Cassel
(Philadelphia Inquirer) June 5, 2002 -- If you want the state of the world in a nutshell, you can skip the headlines, turn off Peter Jennings, ignore what's on the covers of Time and Newsweek, and just look at the daily spot price of gold.

People under 40 may not remember when gold was a big deal. Hardly anyone alive recalls the days when the U.S. government would cheerfully swap gold for dollars at a fixed rate.

That system tied the currency - and by implication, the economy - to the amount of one particular substance that happened to have been dug out of the ground.

We don't do that any more - Presidents Franklin Roosevelt and Richard Nixon both had a hand in breaking the formal link between gold and the dollar - but gold hasn't become economically irrelevant, either.

Thousands of years of nearly universal tradition have given gold a special status. From Bangkok to Buenos Aires, people still treat it as a measure of value and a way to store wealth, particularly in dangerous or uncertain times.

Times like now, for example.

---------(click URL for full article)---------

The trend of the media to paint gold in a favorable light to Main St. seems to be growing apace.


WAC (Wide Awake Club)Pound must fall for euro entry ==>20% property devaluation in the uk #7752906/05/02; 04:27:48

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The British pound is at least 20 percent overvalued against the euro and would need to fall by that amount before sterling should join the single currency, says a senior official at the European Banking Federation (EBF) says.

The chairman of the EBF's Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, Martin Huefner, said sterling would have to fall to fair value for British euro entry.

"At these (current) levels, entry is not possible or advisable," he said after presenting the committee's report on the euro area's economic outlook on Wednesday.

Commenting on the euro's recent appreciation against sterling, Huefner said: "For the discussion of the British pound entering the euro, it is a very good development."

WAC: Is this enough, or must there be an outright crash?

TownCrierHEADLINE: Pound must fall for euro entry (by at least one-fifth!)#7753006/05/02; 04:28:32

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The British pound is at least 20 percent overvalued against the euro and would need to fall by that amount before sterling should join the single currency, says a senior official at the European Banking Federation (EBF) says.

"At these (current) levels, entry is not possible or advisable," he said after presenting the committee's report on the euro area's economic outlook on Wednesday.

--------(click URL for full text)---------

To my British associates, please see this for what it is -- a wake up call regarding the future purchasing power of sterling.

In its simplest form, the pound is "too strong" to the point of rendering British industry, goods and services less than ideally competitive at existing nominal wage levels translated through the exchange rate. Thus, it would not be wise to "lock in" at this noncompetitive rate.

Now here's the key point. This has nothing to do with the issue of whether Britain opts for the EMU or not. As you might well imagine, if British industry is noncompetive at current exchange rates such that it is ill-advised to lock in to the Monetary Union at these exchange rates, it only stands to reason that even with EMU put aside, sterling will not for long remain freely floating at these difficult levels. If the markets don't take it down, domestic politics will intervene to get the job done.

Are you prepared to piss away one-fifth of your current purchasing power through inaction? Don't take my word for it, but the writing on the wall seems pretty clear on this one.

A diversification into gold while the pound remains strong would be advisable. Give Centennial a call during Denver's business hours (subtract 7 hrs from London time).


Black BladeDesperate dollar 'set for euro parity'#7753106/05/02; 05:06:12


THE dollar sell-off is gathering momentum, with some experts predicting parity between the US currency and the euro by year-end.

Black Blade: Interesting possibilities if parity is reached.

LeSinPaper Au v Physical Au - Disconnected - #7753206/05/02; 06:35:46

Few Random Thoughts from my pea brain

I think it was "Miner" that referred to a rocket booster section, burning out and drifting back to earth or its real level/value as nothing after burn-out.

Paper Au will start to burn "down" as more and more is sold into the fire, (thoughts & the teaching of FOA & Another).
This will/has caused the seraration/disconnection. Now in rapid process. Why would anyone sell serious amounts of physical Au in such an unstable shifting market? Soon real gold to hold will not be found for sale at "quoted" prices,
what will you pay?

As the new East & MidEast gold trading centres establish themselves this month and onward the disconnection will continue. What will be the new "price discovery" system be, what - where- when?

I do not know - who does or can anyone speculate?

LeSin@ Spelling - Sorry "Separation"#7753306/05/02; 06:38:48

JimboGold newsletters skeptical#7753406/05/02; 07:22:44

CBSMarketWatch's Mark Hulbert wrote an encouraging piece this morning (see below). In a nutshell, he believes in today's gold bull market because gold timing newsletters aren't bullish about the possibilities. Has anyone else found Hulbert's "yardstick" to be a valid way to measure this phenomenon?

Gold timers still skeptical

By Mark Hulbert,
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET June 5, 2002

ANNADALE, Va. (CBS.MW) -- Despite continued strength in the gold market, the gold timers I track remain largely skeptical that this is the beginning of a gold bull market. And that's bullish.

As of Tuesday's close -- after a day in which the nearby futures contract briefly rose above $330 and closed up $1.10 -- the Hulbert Financial Digest's gold sentiment index stood at just 45.8 percent.

This index is calculated by averaging the gold market exposure among gold timing newsletters that communicate their thoughts daily with their subscribers. The current reading therefore means that the average gold timer is advising that subscribers allocate more than half their gold portfolios to cash.

It's nothing short of amazing that the gold timers are not exhibiting more exuberance.

After all, that is exactly what they did on every other occasion in recent years in which gold showed even a fraction of its current strength. But not this time; over the past month, during which gold has climbed by more than $20 per ounce, the HFD's gold sentiment index has risen just 16 percentage points.

In early February, in contrast, the HFD's gold sentiment index shot up to 90 percent after bullion briefly eclipsed the $300 level. Today, in contrast, with gold trading nearly $25 per ounce higher, this sentiment index is only half as high.

Or consider the HFD's gold sentiment index in the fall of 1999, the last occasion prior to this week in which gold traded above $320. It shot up then to over 70 percent, more than 25 percentage points above today's level.

Though there are myriad individual reasons why various gold timers are skeptical of this rally, their collective mood reminds me of Charlie Brown after one too many times trusting that Lucy wouldn't pull the football away at the last minute: He decides never to trust her again.

It similarly would seem that, after having been burned countless times by false gold rallies, many timers vowed never to trust another gold rally -- even one as strong as the current one.

Ironically, this may prove to be the very rally they should have trusted.

YGMBlack Blades Bone Pile........#7753506/05/02; 07:35:17

Here's a list of those headed to the bone pile.....Many of which media ignores or forgets to mention...Slipping quietly into the night...Bankruptcies up 19% over /02
YGMDebt Levels 1985 to 2001#7753606/05/02; 07:42:05

Outstanding Level of Public & Private Debt
1985 - 2001*
($ Billions)

Municipal Treasury(1) Mortgage-Related(2) Corporate* Fed Agencies Money Market(3) Asset-Backed*(4) Total

1985 859.5 1,437.7 372.1 776.5 293.9 847.0 0.9 4,587.6
1986 920.4 1,619.0 534.4 959.6 307.4 877.0 7.2 5,225.0
1987 1,010.4 1,724.7 672.1 1,074.9 341.4 979.8 12.9 5,816.2
1988 1,082.3 1,821.3 772.4 1,195.7 381.5 1,108.5 29.3 6,391.0
1989 1,135.2 1,945.4 971.5 1,292.5 411.8 1,192.3 51.3 7,000.0
1990 1,184.4 2,195.8 1,333.4** 1,350.4 434.7 1,156.8 89.9 7,745.4
1991 1,272.2 2,471.6 1,636.9 1,454.7 442.8 1,054.3 129.9 8,462.4
1992 1,302.8 2,754.1 1,937.0 1,557.0 484.0 994.2 163.7 9,192.8
1993 1,377.5 2,989.5 2,144.7 1,674.7 570.7 971.8 199.9 9,928.8
1994 1,341.7 3,126.0 2,251.6 1,755.6 738.9 1,034.7 257.3 10,505.8
1995 1,293.5 3,307.2 2,352.1 1,937.5 844.6 1,177.3 316.3 11,228.5
1996 1,296.0 3,459.7 2,486.1 2,122.2 925.8 1,393.9 404.4 12,088.1
1997 1,367.5 3,456.8 2,680.2 2,346.3 1,022.6 1,692.8 535.8 13,102.0
1998 1,464.3 3,355.5 2,955.2 2,666.2 1,296.5 1,978.0 731.5 14,447.2
1999 1,532.5 3,281.0 3,334.2 3,022.9 1,616.5 2,338.2 900.8 16,026.4
2000 1,567.8 2,966.9 3,564.7 3,372.0 1,851.9 2,661.0 1,071.8 17,056.1
2001* 1,665.3 2,967.5 4,125.5 3,818.2 2,143.0 2,541.7 1,281.1 18,542.3

*The Bond Market Association estimates
**Denotes break in series due to the inclusion of additional source data on private-label MBS/CMOs.
(1) Interest bearing marketable public debt.
(2) Includes GNMA, FNMA, and FHLMC mortgage-backed securities and CMOs and private-label MBS/CMOs.
(3) Includes commercial paper, bankers' acceptances, and large time deposits.
(4) Includes public and private placements.
U.S. Department of Treasury
Federal Reserve System
Federal National Mortgage Association
Government National Mortgage Association
Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation

****To View....use link provided....No debt crisis my ass!!

YGMWave of Defaults.......Prediction.......They Won't be 'Orderly'#7753706/05/02; 07:53:40

Overview of the Prediction

This site carries a prediction of and provides evidence for a wave of defaults that is outside the control of financial and monetary authorities. It might be thought of as a "disorderly" rather than an "orderly" workout of overindebtedness. According to the IMF and mainstream macroeconomics, there is no "debt problem," only a commitment problem. According to this view crises occurred in the late 'nineties because the political authorities in emerging economies lacked the political will or commitment to institute much needed economic reforms. Reflecting this "Northern" rather than a "Southern" perspective, the respected NGO, ICG (International Crisis Group), argues in a recent 13mar01 report, that "the problem" underlying Indonesia's continuing crisis is "the government's inability or unwillingness to implement fully a policy agenda that it has already agreed with its external creditors." Authorities have admitted to a problem of overindebtedness among HIPCs (Heavily Indebted Poor Countries). But the 41 countries identified as HIPC by the WB (World Bank) have (before any debt cancellations) an *average* level of external debt of just over $5bil, and this debt is almost exclusively debt to governments and multilateral banks (such as the IMF and WB). When HIPCs have gone into arrears this has not destabilized world capital markets. Whether or not more HIPC debt is forgiven by the G8, this does not matter so much for the stability of the world monetary system. The HIPCs are not only important for issues of human suffering, however. I argue that the inability of HIPCs to pay their external debt is the canary in the mine -- they are informing us of what's coming from countries with major indebtedness to private creditors.

**The prediction of an uncontrolled wave of defaults comes from the vulnerability of the system. That vulnerability comes from US household debt (over $6trillion) as well as the external debt of countries like Argentina, Indonesia, Russia, and Turkey as well as the volume of non-performing in the banking systems of Japan and Korea as well as the high debt/equity ratios of firms in these two economies. It also comes from G7 corporate overleveraging, especially in the telecommunications sector.

A driving force that is yet not expended in the world economy is the telecommunications revolution. The revolution will not be over, in my opinion, until wireless communications and two-way interactive video is within the grasp of the world's "middle class" (which is actually a small percent of the world's population). By the time that happens many brick and mortar firms will have been eliminated by this technological upheaval. But my prediction of a wave of defaults is not so much about the enterprises that are swept away by the profound changes in technology, but rather by the vulnerability of those economic agents who, like overzealous energy investors in the late 'seventies, continue to accept increasingly levels of risk in their efforts to participate in quick riches from this revolution. The willingness to assume unsustainable levels of indebtedness began when the rules of prudent borrowing were discarded during the inflationary monetary policies of the 'seventies and it has continued unabated into this new millennium.

before the new millennium. The 1999-2000 debt-relief/write-downs have been under the control of the IMF, Paris Club and London Club.

****What is being predicted here is that the defaults will cease to be orderly -- they will be sufficiently large to circumvent the control of monetary and financial authorities and become a "crisis," larger than the Mexican ('94-95), Asian ('97) and Russian/LTC ('98) crises which will be eventually seen as precursors to the final event which a weakened IMF will no longer be able to control via "bailouts." ****

**The reasons for regarding the world system as vulnerable to a wave of defaults are both historical and contemporary. From a historical perspective, I argue that "the West" has been in a Kondratieff downwave since the Monetarist/Volckerian revolution in monetary policy in 1979. The third world and emerging economies have joined their richer neighbors in this period of tight policy as a result of contracting debt in hard currencies and submitting to IMF stabilization programs. The treatment of this period as developing unsustainable real debt burdens comes from my studies (with others) of the late nineteenth century and the Great Depression and from a monetary interpretation of the Kondratieff wave. The reason for entitling this site "Waves of Default" comes from the historical similarity between the post-1980 disinflation and post-war deflations in the 19th and early 20th century. I interpret the recessions/depressions at the end of all Kondratieff downwaves as debt crises caused by commodity price paths coming in lower than anticipated causing a higher than expected real debt burden. I have, therefore, a monetary rather than a real theory of the longwaves down named after Kondratieff.

Back to the top page

YGMWaves of Default.........Main Page.#7753806/05/02; 08:00:58

Good overview and lots more......YGM
YGMThe Golden Hammer....#7753906/05/02; 08:11:49

Tranquilizers Anyone....

Just smile folks...You know what you know, you got what you got, and now you can get more.....YGM.


goldenboyKramrich; Housing Bubble; Inflation#7754006/05/02; 08:58:36

Enjoyed your post, however I disagree with your assumption that real interest rates will rise to compensate lenders for their lost purchasing power. This did not happen in the 70`s. Sure, people thought it a great rip-off to end up with negative inflation adjusted returns on bonds, deposits, mortgages etc.; but that is what an inflation is all about- ripping you off. You have to decide whether to be a ripper or a rippee.
That the whole fractional reserve system/guv deficit financing/debt system is wrong, terribly, terribly wrong is not in question at this site. Goldbugs (I am one) tend to believe with religious fervour that the whole system is logically doomed. The problem is timing, and the tendency is to underestimate system resiliency.
When the Fed prints money with gusto, noone will be able to stand in the way and demand more interest because it is fair compensation. They will simply be swept away in tidal wave of paper money. That is why more people will buy gold. In the interim, they will also buy real estate because people use it and need it.
This is not to say there will not be a 30`s style collapse EVENTUALLY, but the system will avoid this like the plague it is. It is all about timing, do not be surprised if housing keeps on going, that is the nature of the bubble. Look at how long it took to happen at Nasduck.

Carl HGATA#7754106/05/02; 09:39:25

Anyone heard from Bill or Chris in the last 48 hours?
Chris PowellHelp! I've been kidnapped by the New York Fed#7754206/05/02; 09:53:40

They're keeping me in the gold vault downstairs, and .... there's nothing here but a lot of paper IOUs!
The HoopleChris Powell#7754306/05/02; 10:06:16

Do happen to see the bones of that Fed attorney who let it slip in the Fed minutes about gold swaps?
LeighChris Powell#7754406/05/02; 10:50:59

Chris, I'd offer some Gold Eagles for a ransom payment, but no one wants gold these days. I hope you find a way out of there soon!
JimboOut of Africa?#7754506/05/02; 12:23:19

The article below, posted on another gold forum, has me more concerned than today's precipitous drop in the POG. Is it time to get out of South African gold stocks and invest in non-SA companies? Your thoughts, please.

A Radical Overhaul for South African Mining
The New York Times Business Section, June 3, 2002

OHANNESBURG, June 3 — After more than a year of painstaking revision and top-level deliberation, the government here is about to alter the balance of power in the country's mining industry.

Parliament will begin final work this week on a bill that will give the government ultimate ownership of all of the country's prodigious mineral resources, which mining companies would then exploit only under license, giving the state the final say over who digs what and where.

With the new law, South Africa hopes to transform an industry that has been an instrument and emblem of white social and economic control since gold and diamonds were first discovered in sizable quantities in South Africa in the 19th century.

Since the end of apartheid and the establishment of black rule almost a decade ago, the government has made it a central objective to turn the mines into engines of economic betterment for more of the black majority, as they have been for many in the white minority.

Its principal tool is the Minerals and Petroleum Resources Development Bill, which Parliament will try to complete beginning Tuesday. Under the law, the state would assume ownership of all the country's mineral resources, a significant share of which have been privately controlled for decades, principally by the major global mining companies. To win mining licenses, the companies would have to promise to "expand opportunities for historically disadvantaged persons to enter the mineral industry," particularly by enlisting black partners and investing in black communities.

Most of the world's major mining nations, including Australia, Chile, Canada and Peru, have similar systems of national control and licensing. The United States, with its mix of private and public ownership of mineral rights, is an exception, in some respects similar to South Africa.

Entrenched though it is, South Africa's mining industry would have been hard pressed to defy prevailing international practices, so it has focused instead on fighting specific elements of the bill, not its underlying principle of state ownership.

The implications will ripple well beyond South Africa. Many of the world's major mining companies operate in the country, and several have roots here, notably Anglo American and its stable of companies. One of them, Anglo Platinum, the world's biggest platinum producer, holds about two-thirds of South Africa's platinum reserves, according to the government. Roughly half the country's gold reserves are controlled either by AngloGold or by Gold Fields Ltd.

Companies now mining in South Africa will have to apply to have their "old order rights" converted into "new order rights." All are expected to win approval, though some are concerned that the process will not run as routinely as promised.

The government's chief of mining regulation, Jacinto Rocha, said the companies had nothing to worry about. "Is there automaticity?" he said. "As far as we are concerned, yes, there is."

The Constitution requires the state to pay compensation for expropriated property, but there are unresolved questions about how this applies to the proposed law, most significantly to what extent mineral rights are "property." The bill's terms impose a long list of conditions for compensation, among them proof "of actual loss and damage," and it calls for the need to redress past racial discrimination to be taken into account. "It is," Mr. Rocha acknowledged, "very complex."

The law calls for licenses of up to 5 years for prospecting rights and up to 30 years for mining rights. Companies would pay royalties to the state, as they do in many cases today, but they would do it under a new framework still being drafted by the ministry of finance.

What is distinct about South Africa's law is its pronounced emphasis on social development in mining communities and on black participation in management and ownership.

No one in the industry openly questions those goals — indeed, many say they embrace them. But some mining companies and international mining experts say the proposed law remains too vague and too vulnerable to political whims.

In a critique submitted to Parliament last week, the South African Chamber of Mines praised many improvements in the bill since the first draft of December 2000. But the chamber, which speaks for all the industry's major players including Anglo and Gold Fields, outlined a number of problems and proposed some amendments.

For one thing, the bill is widely taken to mean mining companies will be expected to build schools, clinics and roads in the communities where they mine. But the chamber says it is in the dark about how much of such spending will be enough.

"It's not in the bill," Mzolisi Diliza, the chamber's chief executive, said. "You are expected to comply with something you don't know."

Mr. Rocha said the draft law was not the place for such details. "The bill sets the principle, the meat comes then in the regulations," he said. Along with a forthcoming minerals charter, the regulations that will follow the law will provide sufficient clarity, he said.

Still, many experts say, the most important questions must be addressed up front, whether in the law or in an accompanying document.

"The reality is, we are living in the third world, in a developing country," said Fred Cawood, a senior lecturer in mineral policy at the University of Witwatersrand's School of Mining Engineering in Johannesburg. "Just because the current government has the integrity to deal with this doesn't mean future governments will, and that's why the government has to spell out the rules of the game."

Another concern is that under the law, a court could hear a challenge only to the process of a decision, not its substance. That, Mr. Diliza said, undermines the security that miners are seeking. "You can follow the right procedure and arrive at the wrong decision," he said.

Rarely has a bill in South Africa faced the scrutiny that the minerals bill has — and no wonder. While the mining industry's dominance has slipped some in recent years as the economy has opened up and diversified, few industries are more central, symbolically and substantively, to South Africa's identity.

Gold from the mines on its outskirts made Johannesburg the commercial capital of the continent. Diamonds turned a South African company called De Beers into a worldwide synonym for luxury. Platinum is the country's next great hope.

But the boom that blessed South Africa largely passed blacks by, though they were the labor behind it. Even had they the means, they could not own mineral rights under apartheid law, and the industry invested little in mining communities.

So when political power changed hands in 1994, the mining industry was a prime target for black empowerment, the effort to integrate the country's capitalist class and improve the lives of the lower classes.

In her budget speech to Parliament last month, the minister of minerals and energy, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, depicted an industry that, mineral by mineral, remained largely in the hands of whites. "This," she said, "is not sustainable in the democratic South Africa."

By insisting, as the proposed law does, that companies use their rights or lose them, the government hopes to stimulate more turnover. The last few years have produced a few notable new entries, like Tokyo Sexwale, a former antiapartheid guerrilla leader who has become perhaps the most prominent black figure in mining. Earlier this year his Mvelaphanda Holdings was listed on the JSE Securities Exchange, the main financial market here, where it was joined last month by African Rainbow Minerals Gold, led by Patrice Motsepe, a former mining lawyer.

Mr. Motsepe said the government had a difficult line to walk: "The challenge — and I've got confidence in the way it's being done — is that while you introduce these changes, these social changes, that you maintain security of tenure, you maintain respect for property rights and you retain the competitiveness of the South African mining industry."

EagleOneLeigh - Powell Ransom#7754606/05/02; 12:39:13

I will be glad to take your Gold Eagles. Does 20 sound about what he would be worth?
Old YellerBallooning deficit forecasts#7754706/05/02; 12:40:27

New estimates reach up to $250 billion for the year,depending on Homeland Security and defense expenditures.

Revenues are plunging,too.If Roach is right and we get our double-dip recession as well as white-collar job cuts,the rosy spin presented by some dissenters in this story will be just that.

EagleOneTo Powell kidnapers - Chris Powell#7754806/05/02; 12:41:51

Reliable party has 10 Gold EAgles to offer for release of Mr. Powell.

Eagle One

sector@OldYeller...TKS for the Newbie post...But The Real US Budget Deficit is...#7754906/05/02; 13:25:39

...$515 Billion [GAAP]

According to the recently released Paul O'Neill Treasury website letter.

Any body hear the mainstream media pundits moaning over this news? Nope?...Me neither.

This dificit number is tabulated very early in the recessionary cycle [Now]. Let's take some bets as to the final US GAAP deficit as of the 4th Quarter 2002...

Any calls for $1 Trillion?

Tommy PThe reason why Gold to a hit today#7755006/05/02; 13:35:37

Good read
YGMDon't be shy Tommy P#7755106/05/02; 14:04:43

Stick it out there for all... :>} *Linked Already previously..

Why gold tanked

By: Stewart Bailey

Posted: 2002/06/05 Wed 20:14 | © Miningweb 1997-2002

JOHANNESBURG – South African gold stocks were massacred today as freefalling bullion knocked almost 8 percent off the Johannesburg Stock Exchange's gold index. The fall in the bourse's gold stocks came in the wake of a large after-market trade in New York last night, with an unnamed fund liquidating 5,000 futures contracts, a move which knocked the price first to $326/oz, then to $324/oz and finally to $321/oz, where some dealers reckon it has found support.
Interestingly, one senior Johannesburg-based trader says the long-liquidation by the fund appears to have been an intentional strategy to lower the gold price. He could not give reasons for the fund's alledged intent, although he said it could have been a move designed to lower the gold price in order to buy in again at lower levels. The sale was executed using the 'Access' system on Comex, which allows for anonymous trading by large funds.

The trader said the sale was made in an illiquid market, between the New York close yesterday and the opening of the Tokyo market this morning.

"They also sold illiquid months and that pushed the price down. It was definitely someone trying to butcher the market," said the trader. The deal was done for 2,000 December contracts, a particularly thin month, and 3,000 August contracts. It sparked a series of stop-loss selling which the trader said created a feeding frenzy among those long gold bullion; this brought on the long liquidation many market commentators have warned of in recent weeks.

But the bullish undertone in the market remains firmly in place, despite today's spectacular $9/oz fall in the price. Another bullion dealer said the metal would do well to consolidate at the lower levels before launching another assault at the key $330/oz mark. "We all knew it had to take a bit of a breather. This fall has been quite drastic but if it had fallen slower we would just have said it was just what the market needed," said the dealer.

He said upside for the metal was still in place as it continued to track the Euro.

The European currency's downward correction against the dollar last night, he said, was also a factor weighing on the gold price. The trader said, however, that the Euro was expected to strengthen further against the dollar from its current levels of around $0.935, which in turn would lift the gold price.

But that will be cold comfort for gold share traders who took a haircut in the market today. In Johannesburg, Gold Fields, the darling of the market last month, dropped 10.49 percent to R129.43, while non-hedging rival Harmony Gold lost 8.82 percent to R163.60.

Durban Roodepoort Deep dumped 6.18 percent to close on R51.65 and AngloGold, the bourse's number one dropped 6 percent from yesterday's record close to R628 a share. New entrant ARMGold lost 4.2 percent to R55.85 and junior Afrikander Lease took a 9.09 percent hammering to R6.36.

In Australia, the dip was less marked. Auriongold, the subject of a takeover bid by North American Placer Dome, shed 1.74 percent, while number two producer Newcrest dipped 1.09 percent to A$8.19.

Black BladeCNBC Reports#7755206/05/02; 14:16:12

The stock markets have rebounded toward the end of session today. Bob Pisanni a reporter at the NYSE stated that the rebound was due to Larry Elison CEO of Oracle stating that his company will "not warn on earnings". That's pathetic that the market would move higher not because a company announces improved earnings or even earnings, but that they will not warn on unexpected lower earnings.

Then Pisanni actually audibly laughed on the air when he mentioned todays drop in gold prices. I guess it's safe to say he is not invested in gold.

- Black Blade

BTW, gold is rebounding slightly in after hours. The article linked by TommyP is worth looking at and it is as I suspected. Look at last nights posts and todays market report.

Tommy PThanks Johnny!#7755306/05/02; 14:20:09

this should help the credibility
Black BladeJob cuts hit fast pace in June #7755406/05/02; 14:25:29


After May, the slowest month for job cuts in a year, businesses are swinging the ax again.

Black Blade: The "Bone Pile" is set to grow higher still.

sectorThe COMEX Had Been Going UP in a Linear Fashion...#7755506/05/02; 14:39:07

Hot Fund Money Doesn't LIKE that

See...the really hot, point-jumper funds like a cyclically upward pattern...a "Channel". We didn't really have such a "Channel". Just a narrow linear pattern.

Today they made a real "Channel".

POG now sits at the lower "Channel Marker" with $330 as the ceiling imposed by the Caba with it's selling of physical gold.

That they are being slowly strangled by gold at these levels is pretty clear to all. How much do they have left?

Stay tuned.

TownCrierHEADLINE: The Afternoon Gold Report#7755606/05/02; 14:45:22


June 5, 2002 (
...Gold futures as reported by OsterDowJones at opened around $3 lower when overnight losses spilled over into the U.S. session after a large commodity fund liquidated some Dec positions, as noted by one Comex floor trader.

...."We did start seeing some profit taking late yesterday (Tuesday) afternoon and it washed into this morning, but frankly I don't see this as anything that significant," said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Ill. "The emotions are obviously running very high among those long (the market), and I think we've shaken out a lot of the weak hands," he added. "Gold is off because there was huge profit-taking by a fund last night on ACCESS," said a bullion dealer, referring to the COMEX electronic trading system.

The selling started shortly before the New York close Tuesday and continued in the after-market, where the roughly 5,400 lots traded was unusually heavy business for ACCESS. "I heard it was an equity fund that took a punt in gold, made a few bucks and took their profit," the dealer said. "Once Japan started intervening with the dollar, gold got sold off a little bit and equities coming back didn't help," said a floor broker.

...Traders estimated the Bank of Japan spent anywhere between $1 billion and $5 billion Tuesday to weaken the Japanese currency. Reuters reports that Japanese authorities sold the yen again on Wednesday.

...The pullback in gold price overnight and through today's trading appears to be a corrective phase in the rapid run up in gold prices that has seen daily upside moves for several days. The world is still an uncertain place with the threat of war in Central Asia, terrorism in the Middle East and there are new concerns today that Brazil could default on debt following on the heels of Argentina. The outlook for gold is still positive as portfolio insurance and wealth preservation vehicle.

-------(click URL for full text, on right-hand column)------

Bottom line: You'll definitely want to get into the habit of checking out Mr. Warner's excellent "after the close" afternoon reports provided here.


LeighEagle One#7755706/05/02; 14:45:47

Let's look at your offer closely, Eagle One. You want me to give you 20 Eagles for Chris's release, and then you will give 10 to the kidnappers. No, thanks!

I got so discouraged today that I tossed all my gold out into the street, just like a Bible character. A thunderstorm came along and washed it into the storm drain. Poor Chris might be in that vault for a while. At least he has his laptop so he can fill us in on the latest GATA news.

JimboWhich fund sold off?#7755806/05/02; 15:00:19

OK, Black Blade and all you other gold sleuths, which unidentified fund sold off the reported 5000 gold future contracts in the after-market last night? I think this fund--and its after-hours manuever, which cost us all dearly--should be exposed. Your opinions, please.
Black BladeRe: Jimbo#7755906/05/02; 15:10:32

Which Fund or Funds? I wish I knew. As mentioned in the article, ACCESS trading allows for anonymous trading. The hours of the trading are suspicious and appear to have been closely focussed on a couple of trading months contracts rather than across the board dumping of gold contracts. This suggests that one or very few funds or traders were involved. I think that it was done probably for a quick profit and also to force sentiment and maret direction lower. I have my suspicions as to who, but I don't wish to invite a lawsuit here if I am wrong. The article that TommyP linked and YGM posted reflects what I was thinking about the strange timing of sales during illiquid conditions. That's my take on it anyway.

- Black Blade

JimboMy guess#7756006/05/02; 15:23:40

Thanks, Black Blade, I understand your position. Since I'm under no restrictions, my guess is that the after-hours gold sell-off was perpetrated by a large financial institution such as Goldman-Sucks. Or perhaps the Fed was behind it? Someone among us must know, or have access to sources who know. What about it?
AristotleLeigh and others, try to keep your perspective#7756106/05/02; 15:37:11

If ten weeks ago, when Gold was trading at $290, I had been able to state with authority and absolutely that Gold would be trading above $320 on June 5th, you'd have all likely been thrilled with that outcome.

Well, here it is. Why are you seemingly stressing out over the details of its exact journey getting from there to here?

Would you have been happier if it had dropped intermittantly to $200 first? Or had visited $500 for a day along the way? Or first one, then the other? Or the other way around?

It's not going to move in a straight line. I hope you all know that. So get used to it. But move it will. It's in the cards.

Now, if I were to suggest to you that Gold will be much *much* higher in 2004, that should be universally accepted around here as a good thing. But I'm willing to bet that a number of people are playing silly exotic games with it, and will be likely burned by the path Gold's price will take in the getting to there.

It's the rare bird that manages to exit from leverage at a real profit, while most others just get themselves cooked.

That's why I hold to my approach. I buy my Golden Property on nice days like today and then sit back and enjoy the view, taking pleasure in the fundamentals shaping up like the finest of sunrises.

The day will come when futures will sell off and the coin premiums won't follow them lower.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Sierra MadreNot that it makes that much difference to me, but...#7756206/05/02; 15:46:28

I always want to learn a little more; so, would someone please be kind enough to explain to me how the sale of a futures contract affects the price we see on the neighboring forum, or on the INO quote, both of which I take to be quotes for spot transactions actually taking place, where physical gold changes owners.

I should know, but my thoughts are not clear on the subject.

My thanks in advance, for anyone wishing to enlighten me.
Those selling future contracts are not giving up any physical, are they? They are giving up a CHANCE TO PURCHASE physical at X price, and not the yellow stuff itself. Not the same thing, at all.

Further, about that spike downward yesterday and further drop down to 321 or so:

This is all evidence of desperation on the part of those who are attempting to suppress the price of gold. They will fail, without a shadow of a doubt, as those who want the physical are millions all over the world. The gold shorts are desperate and powerful men; it is to be expected they will act in desperation. However, their ship is sinking and no amount of bailing is going to save them.

Sierra; 16:13:44

ALL pro Gold charts and momentums are there to stay in their irreversable trends, benefitting the future exposure of Gold's Value. Nothing has been broken to signal a stop and reverse in POG rise. The POG can't be stopped anymore...only delayed for substantial (brutal) appreciation. Strong language and a risky statement !?

Antal Fekete, explains why there is no such thing as a zero sum game. The 21 year decline and strict control of P(paper)POG (Hoi C.M.) will take its toll (soon). All forward sales and/or leasing of all kinds of Gold, followed an intentional price downline for more than 20 years. The US$ and interest rates could "stabilize" on the back of Gold's price control and NOT the other way around. We could start listing who benefitted or lost from this mega derivative But irrelevant when approaching the denouement of the no-zero-sum game. All past 20 yrs trends have stopped and reversed decisevely and are building their mirror image. Trades, deals and interventions will soon embark on a non-managed (managable) course. The real four seasons will gain the upperhand when this artificial, neverending summer, ends.

A "Valuation" renaissance. Basta with the theatre ! Defaults, unemployment, natural growth, real exchange rates, easy money...etc, will claim their rights during the natural evolution/cycles of the four seasons.

POG should find support at the 315$ level, where it left (overshot) its rising channel. The sept. '99 WA peak of 332$ is (was) a natural pauze (attraction) point. But the real turnaround has been established and is irreversable. Euro guarantee on this ! All brakes are on the Dow-index decline and stabilizing dollar/euro exchange rate. But the A/D -line of the SP-500 indicates that more and more individual shares are unmasked from their maniacal valuation. Trades, deals and interventions are losing their grip(s) on the underlying over-valueds. The dike(s) will break when we run out of fingers to fill the encreasing numbers of widening holes. The toxic over-valued water keeps on building pressure. All this is daily illustrated by hard working, thought sharing, forumers, here at CPM. Not a single positive "fundamental" has ever been found and posted as a contra-argument !!!

The price of the valuable Gold will certainly be under the very lucky and very few survivers (triomphers), during the coming final reckoning.

Incognito block deals after trading hours, will resort less disturbing (trendsetting) effects on the official and visible trades. They are running out on "original" (lucid) rumors.
They will find fewer authoritive candidates to produce anti Gold menaces. "They, them" ...the financial managers and jongleurs. *Time*, gaining in weight, is against their lucrative, highly unproductive, pseudo-financial acts, feeding the only alternative of "enforced" deflation.
The end is near ! Personally I bet on "very" near !?

Rumsfeld, between the lines, has a timing-problem with ME-oil conquest (Iraq) due to the second Taliban (fundamentalist) front, (re)opened in the Kashmir disputed region. The Palestinian dangerous disturbance works in concert with increased nuclear/terror/ threats. Too much serious (and fragmented) fronts at the same time. There seems to be no serious effort to neutralize or calm down the organized jihads. As if subconsciously, "war" is disered as sole solution to this catch 22 economico/financial disaster in the make. This certainly adds to the theory that deflation has run its course and hyperinflala is coming next to us !

What other argument do we need for having more Physical Yellow, other than the impossible "timing" ?

Sierra MadreJust an intuition...but sometimes intuition hits the mark...#7756406/05/02; 16:14:00

I have always thought that the international boycott of S. Africa and the ending of Apartheid and bringing the blacks to power was a screen for a take-over by the New World Order.

The laws currently under "study" by the S.African parliament, regarding mining, remind me of the nationalization of petroleum by Mexico in 1938. The plan was prepared in New York and the details were arranged and known there, before the nationalization was announced in Mexico by the "Great" Lázaro Cárdenas, a kind of Castro before his time.

The object was, to take Mexican petroleum off the market, and especially, to exclude British interests from Mexican oil.

Apply the same to S. Africa. The powers that be, want to crush S. Africa, destroy its mining, and what better process than to put the government into the business. Guaranteed catastrophe!

My intuition tells me that TPTB don't care about more gold coming on to the market. They want control of the source of the gold, in any case, and what better way to do it than to wreck the mining industry, then lend billions upon billions to S. African Gov't, which will have to hock its future production of gold. This gold TPTB can then feed into the market to control its price; or use it to cover their short positions.

This is not the S. African government acting; it is the agent for superior power or powers.

Just my intuition.


Belgian* TRADES * and * DEALS *#7756506/05/02; 17:02:14

We, small shrimps "have" to "trade"" nicely, orderly and correct, during trading hours. Giants are *dealing* (blocktrading) under the identifying radars, after hours.
The difference is in the "trade" and "deal". Trade is a straightforward affair and a deal is a compromise between two parties with a "constructed" mutual interest based on much more insider information with a manipulative character/purpose.

Big money never faces and takes full consequences of wrong positions. They make deals and organise / manipulate, ordinarry trade at their profit. In other words : how and when do you stop and reverse or influence a "trend" and its momentum ? That's what happened. "They" had some reasons for doing so and found co-operators / co- benefittors at the small traders (temporary) expense. Doesn't matter who is "them". The deal was to alter the trading trend and capsize the profit flow, brutally, to another side.

I took my profits (300%) on GFI and exchanged them (the fiat profits) for Physical in Possession at 321$... hardly 10% higher in price than the previous buys ! Dreaming that this kind of gorgeous action could go on for ever !!!
Play (!!!) the financial fiat gamble succesfull with only one purpose : adding coins repetively to the existing Gold stash. Too close to perfection to be true !?
What if 1%...10% of repetitive paper-gold-profits, would (could) "automatically" flow into the yellow pool of Permanent Physical WEALTH Holding !!!!!!!!!!! I'll hammer on this up until it becomes a common practice for all true Gold Philes. Forgive me, please.

Euroland dodozzzz-time.

YGMShort Side..The Sellers of Paper Gold..& Bullion Lessors..#7756606/05/02; 17:13:07

When (not if) These Contracts and Physical Gold Loans are Defaulted..Who Loses?

My best guess is the Shareholders of the various Funds that these scumbags are operating thru.. I'm sure that any Gold borrowing or Shorting on Paper is done thru a wide variety of funds owned by oblivious shareholders, not with the money of any single individuals..Mark my words those not paying attention get left holding the bag.. 2-3 yrs ago I remember trying to make others realize that when Goldman Sachs went public (@ about $65.00 p/sh, I think it was) if one bought that stock you were buying all the shady dealings preceeding the public offering.. Just prior to the 1929 crash another Goldman Co went public and was around $105.00 p/sh.. A few months mo after the crash it was asked of a company offical at Congressional hearings what the current value was...$1.25 p/sh... These whitecollar coniving creeps know exactly what they are doing... The Fed and every other part of the Cabal is using and controling the POG thru these various Bullion Banks/Funds... The BB's and Funds in turn are trying to control the POG thru the debt load and granting of loans to the Miners, and selling short on paper... Hedge or we cut off the cash flow! They are engaged in nothing more than the Heroin dealer who gets his clientel hooked and under his control...

You can be sure of "Four" things...

1-When the music stops the principals in those BB's and Funds will have long since made their Billions...

2-The Musical Chair in which they sit will be made of Physical Gold...

3-Most Important of All... Gold "is" going to explode in the not to distant future...

4-The shareholders left holding the bag can and probably will be named in a wave of Lawsuits... If you own shares in a public Co. you can be named in a lawsuit against that Co.

There is an elite group at the top of the pyramid and they know exactly what and when... It will be shown if and
"when" the Dow crashes because of all this skullduggery (like it almost did with LTCM) just who the major short sellers of the Stock Market were prior to crash and we will know who had advance warning... Their greed has no bounds!!

AristotleSir Sierra Madre, let's talk price discovery American-style, shall we?#7756706/05/02; 17:32:29

The American Benchmark for price discovery for Gold is the COMEX trade in futures contracts.

As you've pointed out, this opens the door to inadequacies because the instrument of the Exchange is not representative of an actual two-way physical market.

First, some background for anyone following along who needs to be brought up to speed on the mechanics of futures trade.

It's easiest to look at the Contract instrument this way. First of all, market participants pay an "ante," the margin put down for each Contract which is a pledge of their commitment to stand behind their bet -- at least for awhile.

Participants arrive as the exchange, some with perceptions that the Contract prices will move higher, some with perceptions that they will move lower.

To pay the margin and enter/open a contract with expectations that prices will move higher sometime between now and the expiration date (this attitude is called a "long" position,) this person is technically agreeing to receive 100 times whatever price hike may occur between now and when he sells his contract, or contrariwise, should he be wrong and the price falls instead, he agrees to pay 100 time whatever that price fall may be at the time he exits his contract.

Here's the other side of the contract -- the "short" position. This person pays his margin to enter/open a contract with expectations of profiting as the price falls sometime between now and the expiry date. He agrees to accept a long's payment of 100 times whatever the price fall may be; and contrariwise, if he has guessed wrong, he agrees to pay 100 times whatever price rise might materialize at the time he exits his contract prior to expiration.

The price changes on these futures Contracts as speculators show up to place their bets and stake their positions through time. If the longs outnumber and are more aggressive in their bidding than the shorts, the contract price will rise as it moves across the spread, ever toward the higher "ask" price of the nearest short in the queue. If the shorts are more aggressive, the price will fall as it moves ever toward the lower "bid" price of the spread being offered by the nearest long in the queue at the Exchange.

So in simple terms, this is what mechanically drives the COMEX Contract price. For brevity, I won't trouble anyone here with what motivates these long and short participants.

Obviously, no Gold need be set aside or taken off the table as these paper games are played. Longs *feel* like they have Gold, but truly, the shorts have the upper hand. Also a topic left for another post. Suffice to say, if faced with the prospect of ponying up cash to pay for delivery of a full-bodied contract of 100 ounces, most longs (likely with more than one contract) have wallets that are too thin. So in the end they, too, become a seller of contracts as they sell their position for a cash out (win or lose) rather than apply any physical pressure with a Gold offtake. At that point it's candy-from-a-baby for shorts to cover their position by buying offsetting contracts when the puny longs capitulate.

So, with America's Benchmark Gold price "discovered" through COMEX trading, where does the cash-on-the-barrelhead payment on the "SPOT" price come from? It is merely conjured (derived) from the nearest active COMEX contract.

Because the Contract theoretically represents the price at which market participants will buy and deliver real Gold at a particular date at the end of a Contract month, the going contract price represents a forward price and must therefore be mathematically adjusted or "corrected" for a theoretical "spot" price at the present time. This is done by adjusting out the time value of the Gold as well as the time value (interest rate, such as LIBOR) of the currency being used for payment/pricing.

It's a squirrelly deal, and taken together with yesterday's post on "COMEX Inventory" it should be easy for even the most casual observer to recognize how danger signals of an impending lockup in the physical market will not be forecast through the America's paper-dominated benchmark of Gold price discovery.

In the physical market, there is more new demand than new supply, begging the question: Where does the "extra" Gold come from to satisfy these needs if we don't have a legitimate price to clear/balance the physical supply and demand?

Anyone intimate with banking knows the answer. The wonders of expansion of the books through the lending process allows many "owners" of unallocated accounts to think they have unique claims for immediate demand on their deposits, when in fact they do not. It has been lent out to generate a marginal return at great risk. Along with the futures arena of price discovery, the unavoidable inflationary illusion of banking (bullion banking in this case) act together to give this lifetime buying opportunity to anyone wise enough to take delivery.

The physical element has ALWAYS been the Achilles’ heel of banking -- especially Gold Standard banking -- and modern times are no different. As we assess the international web of bullion banking practices today, we are staring over the brink of the mother of all bank runs.

Obviously, the Central Bankers are aware of the gravity of this commercial risk, and are impressed with the magnitude of financial crisis that could be precipitated as a result.

Through this, you can perhaps gain some insight as to why the ECB/BIS would be keen upon ushering in an era of Free Gold -- one less aspect of systemic risk to worry about. Free Gold would, in fact, impart a significant stabilizing force to any economy built upon its foundation... a foundation of real wealth and honest, incorruptible savings among the populations. People usually riot when their savings and future security has been wiped out. It won't happen under Free Gold.

Believe it!

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Sierra MadreThank you very much, Sir Aristotle!#7756806/05/02; 17:48:22

Clarity, brevity and truthfulness are the mark of a writer who knows what he is talking about.

Your piece is a "saver" and I suspect more than one at this Forum will profit from it.

I don't want to impose upon your generosity with your time and patience, but "Free Gold" - perhaps discussed here at length in days gone by - is a concept I am not sure I understand. I think that a review of the concept at this time might not be amiss, especially for those who, like myself, have not yet fully grasped what it means and implies.

Thank you once again, for your explanation of the futures market and its impact on spot.


slingshotPOG#7756906/05/02; 18:16:22

Two Days Early and a Few Dollars Less

Why can't TPTB knock the POG down on my payday? That's all I'm asking. ;0)

AristotleSir Sierra, "Gold Advocates" and "Free Gold"#7757006/05/02; 18:32:47

Way back if February 2000, I tried to break some new ground here at the forum and shake loose some cobwebs (in my own brain) by delving into the harsh realities of the Gold Standard to ferret out why its demise had come about. As I gave thought to the matter, my investigations revealed that its failure was inevitable if not also completely natural.

I went on to describe what I foresaw as the natural evolutionary path for banking and for Gold's new economic role "within" the next/final phase of the still unfolding modern System. A perfect fit for use in an imperfect world.

In the process, to avoid the derisionary term of Goldbug in an already stressful presentation, I introduced the phrase "Gold Advocate" for my purposes, and have been happy to see it blossom into wider use.

I believe that it was at this same time, in his first response to my series of posts, that FOA first introduced his term of "Free Gold" (and variant "Free Gold Market") to me and the rest of us here.

These posts touched of a whirlwind of discussions on all sides of the matter, much of which was kindly captured for posterity at some pages that have been indexed in the Hall of Fame. (I've just checked, and yes, it's still there. The link above will take you directly to the start of it all.) Lots of reading!!! Or scrolling???? Ha ha!! Skip my tireless blather if you will, but be sure to give attention to FOA's input. Let's see... you'll need to scroll halfway down the page to find it. Oooops, wait-a-minute, he was posting at the forum as Trail Guide then. (I forgot that the moniker FOA became reserved for his Gold Trail posts.)

It's all good. More relevant today than it was then. "Time proves many things."

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

sector@SierraMadre...The New World Order and South Africa's Gold#7757106/05/02; 18:48:34

The "Plan" Runs into Trouble at the Outset...

...due to the crushing weight of previous central bank gold loans [10,000 tonnes], not to mention the hedgers buyback obligations of 3,000 tonnes.

Until "Deep Throat" came along all we could do was to speculate about how much gold the treasury had left to sell in order to suppress pog. Now we know [From this one source] that JPM's " derivative book was a loan book, period".

Analyze that.

Since JPMs book was $60 Billion [At $280/ounce] and now is a bit less [$45 Billion (Today's OCC Release Value for Q1 2002), they "Borrowed" a little over 214 million ounces and then sold it or re-loaned it. Subtract an additional 1,700 tonnes of West Point "Custodialized" gold from the treasury and there is not a whole lot left to sell.

The central bankers must regain all those 10,000 tones of gold in order to square their books. Their potential liability as shorter is unlimited since pug could go right through $400 or higher.

But the bank guys have to get these ounces from a far smaller universe of producers and a much smaller annual production. The hedgers are in the same bag.

They all are carrying losses...including CitiBank. Who, just today, it was revealed by the OCC gold derivatives numbers, ADDED 43% more gold derivatives in the last quarter. The LAST quarter they dropped about the same amount in a really curious "Turnaround". Perhaps the "Loan" they thought they had last quarter was "Called back" this quarter. So CitiBank's gold book had to be "Restated". Even their senior employees are asking about the "Gold Problem".

Is it possible for these central bankers to escape? To somehow get South Africa's gold? The short answer is NO.

All they can do is imitate Enron. Pretend they are successful...until Moody's or someone at S&P rips them to pieces.

As Aristotle says, the COMEX may be the pricing place but the vault is the "Bottom Line" place.

And the central bankers are light. Tap-dancing, whistling-in-the-graveyard light.

HipplebeckBelgain#7757206/05/02; 18:55:09

I was going to post this very thought!
This is the way!!!
You wrote:
"I took my profits (300%) on GFI and exchanged them (the fiat profits) for Physical in Possession at 321$... hardly 10% higher
in price than the previous buys ! Dreaming that this kind of gorgeous action could go on for ever !!!
Play (!!!) the financial fiat gamble succesfull with only one purpose : adding coins repetively to the existing Gold stash. Too
close to perfection to be true !?
What if 1%...10% of repetitive paper-gold-profits, would (could) "automatically" flow into the yellow pool of Permanent
Physical WEALTH Holding !!!!!!!!!!! I'll hammer on this up until it becomes a common practice for all true Gold Philes.
Forgive me, please."

So true!~!

Black BladeMarket Wrap Up – Puplava#7757306/05/02; 19:00:43


The job of Wall Street and the financial media is to keep investors distracted while they plan their exit. If you want to sell, you have to have buyers. So they hope that plenty of suckers are still around to sell to. Unless you are an adept day trader, your best advice is to use near-term rallies as an opportunity to dump your grossly-overvalued stocks. Ignore the BS about patriotism in remaining in the stock market. You owe it to yourself to protect your assets for you own good and the good of the country. The country is going to need those assets to rebuild once we get through the coming stock market crash and the depression that follows. As far as patriotism is concerned, the smart money has already exited. Insiders have been steadily selling off their shares for years. In survival of the fittest fashion, they have sold off their shares and are protecting themselves.

The price of gold has barely gone up 20% and idiotic analysts and anchors are calling it a bubble. If gold and silver are in a bubble, then what do you call Nasdaq stocks with no earnings, or stocks selling at 40-150 times profits? The gold market and the rise of gold and silver shares, which are up over 100% this year, are just in the beginning stages of a new bull market in real assets. The news about Pakistan, India, and the Middle East is just background noise that filters out the real story, which is the supply deficits. Gold and silver production will be going down and major mining companies are going to have to replace their reserves. No major discoveries are on the horizon, meaning the majors will have to replace their declining reserves by buying out other companies. None of this will increase worldwide supply of the precious metals. In the case of silver, we will soon be running out of our remaining stockpiles worldwide. This is the real issue getting clouded in the daily news which seems to focus on so many short-term events. The India/Pakistan conflict, the conflict in the Middle East, and the war against worldwide terrorism are simple land mines waiting to be detonated that will only accelerate the coming bull market in metals.

Black Blade: Puplava outdoes himself on this daily market wrap up. It is well worth reading as he dwells on the precious metals markets and the phoney Wall Street hype. I can't find any cracks in his reasoning. He feels that since gold has held above the $300 mark, the next leg up is $400 and beyond. He ‘s also right about a lot of pain in the future for gold shorts.

Cavan Man@sector#7757406/05/02; 19:01:54

Think hard now. There is no way out? The most powerful are trapped and undone? Be creative. Surely they have a safety valve.

Regarding SA legislation; it is better to actually posess something that is rising in value than to hold a derivative yes? Taxation, even confiscatory taxation is still a derivative. I think we give the NWO crowd to much credit. They are bunglers just like the rest of us in the aggregate. Now, if you are an individual and sovereign wise well, 'tis a different matter.

Black BladeDollar and Equity Bubble Taking Turn for the Worst #7757506/05/02; 19:14:53


Who didn't see that sell off in the Dow Monday? Looks like we need a fresh scapegoat. There'll be plenty scapegoats on the way down. Speaking of down, the Wall Street Journal finally broke the news. Their title was "No Safe Haven: Dollar's Slide Reflects Wariness About U.S." I got the tip early Monday morning and went out to buy a paper, marking the first time I've looked at the WSJ since promising myself never to pick it up again, a little over a year ago. Now, the day they get the headline right is the day they get my subscription. Before the bull market in gold is over we predict they will. Thus, one day, not too long into the future, the headline will read: Gold Is Money.

Black Blade: Interesting article, but maybe the title should be: "Can You Find the Bubble?" in reference to the financial media hype over a supposed "gold bubble". Good Gold charts!

Black BladeWill stocks go nowhere for years? #7757606/05/02; 19:24:11

Investment firm forecasts a stagnant market and says history supports its claim


June 4 — After two years of watching stock prices head steadily lower, most investors probably concede that the outsized returns of the late 1990s are gone forever. But are they ready to accept the possibility that the broad stock market might go nowhere for years to come?

Black Blade: Why sit on risky investments like stocks especially if they are not expected to provide any return for years?

HOOSIER GOLDBUGPRICING SYSTEM!#7757706/05/02; 19:30:25

As FOA/Trailguide and ANOTHER said, the pricing systems (LBMA and COMEX) will lose all credibility for the pricing of GOLD in time as GATA/INTERNET uncovers the charade and PHYSICAL separates from PAPER GOLD. Then it will result in the many seated at the great table of this forum to do the pricing!!!!!! ;) Couldn't be any worse than the current systems. Let us now bow our heads and say a prayer that the GOLD CARTEL brings back the strong dollar, gives us cheap oil prices, lower gold prices, cheap imported good, etc. at least for another 20 years until I die, so I can accumulate PHYSICAL for my sons! I do not want INTERESTING TIMES!!!
Black BladeCalifornia Orders Power-Plant Owners to Delay Repairs in Heat#7757806/05/02; 19:43:46


Folsom, California, June 5 (Bloomberg) -- California power- plant owners were ordered by the state's electricity transmission network to defer maintenance shutdowns because of concern that the current heat wave may lead to power shortages.

California's Independent System Operator forecast demand may reach a peak of 40,691 megawatts, which would be the highest so far this year. The order is in effect from 6:11 a.m. local time through 10:59 p.m., said Gregg Fishman a spokesman.

The warning was the second this year by the system operator because of hot weather, which increases the use of air conditioners and electricity demand. Last summer, high temperatures and a shortage of power led to almost daily warnings, Fishman said. ``It is looking a little tighter today than we originally thought,'' he said. ``We still think we'll be able to get through the day without any rotating outages.''

Black Blade: The Grasshoppers didn't learn anything from the last energy crisis. Now they will probably have to go through it all again. The state may need to raise taxes and build new power generating facilities and upgrade the state's antiquated energy grid.

NomadWAR IN 2 WEEKS !!!#7757906/05/02; 19:46:32

Snippit :

India's military is seeking final authorisation to invade the Pakistani side of divided Kashmir in the middle of this month to destroy the camps of Islamic militants.

A senior Indian official accused Britain, America and other western countries of "adding their weight to Pakistan's nuclear blackmail" by telling their citizens to leave.

"This is jumping the gun," he said. "Our intention is not to have an all-out war. It would be a limited action."

Most senior Indian officers expect that the conflict would last about a week before pressure from America and other powers forced a ceasefire.

One officer said he believed there was only the "slimmest chance" of nuclear weapons being used. "We will call Pakistan's nuclear bluff," he said. It [the nuclear factor] cannot deter us any more."

NomadWAR IN 2 WEEKS !!!#7758006/05/02; 19:47:32

I forgot ...

More Snippits :

The Indians want to move before the arrival of heavy monsoon rains at the beginning of July make military operations impossible.

PizzIsrael#7758106/05/02; 19:50:49

Breaking news on CNBC. Israel attacking Arafat compound. Looks pretty intense.
White RosePrices are only set back a single week#7758206/05/02; 19:56:37

Right now approaching 10pm eastern time, prices are higher than the close. They are $322 Au, $4.94 Ag. I believe, these are the prices we first hit (during this run-up) a week ago. In other words, selling 700,000 oz. to the Kangaroos only set the clock back a single week.

The next time someone tries to sell a million oz of gold at odd hours, the price will go down, but by not as much. The whole market learns by each of these experiences.

I am learning as I go. The next time I notice a mysery sell-off of gold stocks in late afternoon, I will join in. I will buy back soon afterwards. I will use the profit to buy more physical.

Good hunting.

mikalGold plates no longer shut in cupboards. Good show lads.#7758306/05/02; 19:56:48,5036,2-1225-12...

05/06/2002 16:15-(SA)
Gold plates for McCartney do
London - Singer Sir Paul McCartney has invited 300 guests to his Irish wedding to Heather Mills next week and they will dine off gold plates. This is according to a US columnist.
New York Post columnist Cindy Adams said the guests "are all sworn to secrecy, lest this get in the papers".
....."Seated dinner is round tables of 10 in white and gold with 14-inch gold serving plates. I mean, we are talking major elegant here," she link for more

Chris PowellHow the BIS was rigging gold even 20 years ago#7758406/05/02; 20:02:19

How the Bank for International Settlements was openly
rigging the gold price even 20 years ago:

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
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NomadWar Poll#7758506/05/02; 20:03:48

I would like to know what ALL of you think about the folowing :

1) Please give your odds of a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan within the next 6 months :

2) If such a nuclear 'exchange' (always loved that word ... so sanitary) occurs, what will be the minimum amount the spot gold price increases in the days/weeks following.

My answers :

1) Better than 50 percent.

2) At least $ 50

I think that it will occur either in the next 2 weeks or just after the monsoons stop in 2 months.

Most importantly, a Indo-Pak war represents yet another event/series of events leading to the Fourth Turning Crisis as I have mentioned many times before on this website (see :

Economically, and even environmentally it will have small effects outside of the affected region. However, psychologically it's effect will be DEVASTATING. Just like in timing the stock/gold market it is not the event itself that is important, but the PERCEPTION of the event that moves markets.

An Indo-Pak war is another in a string of UNTHINKABLE/NEVER HAPPEN IN A LIFETIME type events that will alter the mindset of the entire world in these few short years between 2000 - 2005.


Cavan ManChris Powell#7758606/05/02; 20:13:49

All the central banks were rigging gold twenty years ago. In fact, the "rigging" as you so aptly put it goes back longer than that I bet.

The difference today is the changing global monetary landscape. We've had no change in over thirty years. That's a long time without any change in the history of money as we know/knew it.

I think a good question to ask at some point is, could the BIS change course and go long; GO GOLD?

YGMHow the BIS was rigging gold even 20 years ago#7758806/05/02; 21:03:04

Thanks to Chris Powell and Sean Corrigan for that!

That was an incredibly revealing look at the inner workings of the BIS...With all the other information to be gleaned nowadays re CBs', Rothschilds, Rockefellers etc etc etc, one must wonder (at least I do) if the so called Cabal can just go on doing their dirty work forever....Talk about David and Goliath!!!! Somehow I fear that even thru a world war they could just find new ways to get fatter and although Gold may indeed soar for those that hold the physical, the game would not change...Hmmmm, more food for thought.
Brett WoodsODE TO DINSA MEHTA, #7758906/05/02; 21:04:37


Dinsa Mehta, who professed to know better
Abandoned ideas as soon as they fettered his
Swagger and strutt and condemning rebutt,
His polished tooth leer and proud sigh of "putt"
And all of the City folk, save as they may brought
Their wagons with dollars to Hamilin that day
With the wonderfull feeling of being correct;
The groovy group swaying and marching in step.
All out of Hamilin and onto the cliffs where
The waves of time writhe and spatter and hiss
With a pot of gold, sold at the edge of the cliff
To later be bought with the pot in the mist.

Mehta was piping and dancing a twist.
Oh, the cries of "Efficiency!" rang in the air
As arm in arm, bankers hugged; greedy to share
With childish delight, the shout of the barker and
The shimmering light. And details of mergers
Were smoothed in the night. And where there
Were five, behold! There are two. Gone was diversity,
And born anew, a thoroughbred prancing, a single
Fine strain like a mountain meadow replaced with one grain,
Agreement and fullfillment the same, yet one common cold,
One ailment or woe...

With a leader so fine to stand at the front, how
Could any commoner wish less than to stand
Shoulder to shoulder, pike beside pike in rows
Back to front?

"Where shall we march?" "Where Mehta says!"
Over the bridge we see stretch from the ledge
And on to gold we must buy and replace!

And when the time came, at the seargent's call,
"Left! Right!" Dinsa Mehta stepped lightly sideways
And bent to look at the prettiest of daisies
Sprouting from a low green nook. All of a sudden
His bloated frame shook with disease and he thought
Of what pleasure he might have with a book. He danced
A quick jig, decanted a swig and with a stroke of his pen,
Resigned there and then. He danced off stage right with
A demure "Good night!" as easy as standing and leaving
The table from a good game of poker, while one is still able.

There's more of course, about the muddle and hoarse cries,
The confusion, and the lessons to be learned regarding
Diversity of opinion...

~Brett Woods

Black BladeRumor Just Out - Arafat Dead#7759006/05/02; 21:11:57

I haven't heard anything concrete, but some Middle Eastern analyst on CNN said that Arafat may have been executed by Israeli troops. Still looking for confirmation. I just read that Bush talked to Sharon and in the discussion he said: "do you plan to kill Arafat?" Sharon: "No" Bush: "That's good". If true this could actually create more problems. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

darkhorseSierra Madre (# 77564)#7759106/05/02; 21:17:05

If this is really what they're working towards (not too hard to see it happening), SA would become one big "bullion bank". I'd be willing to bet ya wouldn't see any hedging though!
sector@CavenMan Central Banks...Could They Go Long?#7759206/05/02; 21:21:15

If it serves their national interest...Of Course!

The current paradigm is the dollar and US promises to repay its debt.

In two weeks all that could change. Especially the next two weeks.

If central banks see US dominance failing, stability evaporating, they could go long simply by not selling [Watch the Swiss on this one] or lending bullion. They could frustrate Greenspan by a strict adherence to the WA [They already HAVE in large measure], no matter what. Sure the bankers could run for the hills. It's not like they have deep ideals or a moral compass. They have participated in one of the dirtiest criminal activities in the history of civilization. Are we to expect them to act honorably and stand by the US?

Three guesses.

What would happen when they bolt? POG rockets. The Fed tries to "Buy" gold mines, only to find out that corporate by-laws have been changed, poison pills invoked and their mighty exit plan has fizzled....the Eddie George called it.

The future will not be like the past.

goldquestIf Arafat Is TU#7759306/05/02; 21:22:45

Gold could be at $400 by morning!
Solomon WeaverAnswer for Nomad#7759406/05/02; 21:22:49

Chances of Nuclear used in India Pakistan in next six months......less than 1%. India would have to have engaged in a brutal ground war with very heavy losses before Pakistan would do this...they may be proud, but they do not want to go into the history books along with USA as the only to use nukes.

Price of gold even if it happened would fall as world would once again consider dollar a safe haven.

Poor old Solomon

Cavan ManThe BIS#7759506/05/02; 21:23:13

Good find by Sean and Chris. The BIS is a distinctly European institution though having global membership; at lest that is my impression. I wonder what their opinion is of the economic/financial/monetary challenges we face here in the west. I wonder if the BIS was consulted about the Euro. I simply wonder.
YGMFocus on "Anything But Gold Derivatives" says Goldman Sachs CEO#7759606/05/02; 22:11:21

Goldman CEO calls for U.S. accounting crackdown
WASHINGTON, June 5 (Reuters) - The chief executive of investment banking giant Goldman Sachs called on Wednesday for changes to a U.S. financial system consumed these days by self-doubt, including a crackdown on accountants.


Black BladeArafat Safe#7759706/05/02; 22:34:55

CNN reports that Arafat is safe in his office. The rumor now is that Israel would like to exile him from the West Bank. Meanwhile heavy fighting is reported around the compound.

- Black Blade

WaveriderGold Conference #7759806/05/02; 23:20:34

I attended the Gold Conference today and it was fabulous (BTW CarlH....not to worry...Bill Murphy is here in Vancouver). First a note about the demographics which I found interesting...of approximately the five hundred participants, I would guess that 95% were male over the age of about 40...interesting. The individual presentations by Bob Chapman, David Tice, David Morgan, and Ian Gordon were captivating, but by far the most interesting was the closing panel of the above mentioned names (except Morgan), along with Bill Murphy and James Turk. Some very brief highlights include:
- Bob Chapman sees the US having to raise interest rates to support the dollar (by August, I believe), which will lead to an increase in the M3 to buoy up the economy. He sees the DOW going to 8200 or lower, and POG going to $512.00 within the next year, or even $850.00 "depending on what happens".
- David Tice spoke about excessive credit growth in the 90's resulting in asset price inflation which leads to negative savings rates and the massive current account deficit. He sees real estate as being the method of keeping credit in the system while keeping the consumer happy, which will in turn, make the correction/decline all the more enormous. He sees consumption slowing due to the high levels of personal debt, and when it stops it will decimate the economy. He sees weakening of both the Can. and US dollar, with the CHF becoming the strongest currency, and Gold going to $700.00 within the next year.
- David Morgan - of course he sees the smartest money in silver.
- Bill Murphy " Gold is going to melt-up like Enron melted's the gold derivitive neutron's's going to blow." He sees POG $500/600 - $800.00 within the next year.

The energy, synergy and interest at the conference today was fabulous. I asked a few people in discussion where they get their Gold information from...all said USAGold, but none post...interesting. Both Bill Murphy and James Turk speak individually tomorrow...looking forward to it. Thanks to all for the news and posts today. Cheers!

skiSilver Lease Rates Moving Up#7759906/05/02; 23:55:39

Silver lease rates had been edging down over the past couple of weeks. Today they appear to have made a substantial turn-around and are again heading north. Silver is alone in this as the 3 other PM's show little movement. Worth watching??
TEXInteresting Article about the Sudden Price Drop Yesterday#7760006/06/02; 00:01:33

Been away as I misplaced my password and just found it a few days ago!

No's an interesting read......Why gold tanked

By: Stewart Bailey

Posted: 2002/06/05 Wed 20:14 ZE2 | © Miningweb 1997-2002

JOHANNESBURG – South African gold stocks were massacred today as freefalling bullion knocked almost 8 percent off the Johannesburg Stock Exchange's gold index. The fall in the bourse's gold stocks came in the wake of a large after-market trade in New York last night, with an unnamed fund liquidating 5,000 futures contracts, a move which knocked the price first to $326/oz, then to $324/oz and finally to $321/oz, where some dealers reckon it has found support.
Interestingly, one senior Johannesburg-based trader says the long-liquidation by the fund appears to have been an intentional strategy to lower the gold price. He could not give reasons for the fund's alledged intent, although he said it could have been a move designed to lower the gold price in order to buy in again at lower levels. The sale was executed using the 'Access' system on Comex, which allows for anonymous trading by large funds.

The trader said the sale was made in an illiquid market, between the New York close yesterday and the opening of the Tokyo market this morning.

"They also sold illiquid months and that pushed the price down. It was definitely someone trying to butcher the market," said the trader. The deal was done for 2,000 December contracts, a particularly thin month, and 3,000 August contracts. It sparked a series of stop-loss selling which the trader said created a feeding frenzy among those long gold bullion; this brought on the long liquidation many market commentators have warned of in recent weeks.

But the bullish undertone in the market remains firmly in place, despite today's spectacular $9/oz fall in the price. Another bullion dealer said the metal would do well to consolidate at the lower levels before launching another assault at the key $330/oz mark. "We all knew it had to take a bit of a breather. This fall has been quite drastic but if it had fallen slower we would just have said it was just what the market needed," said the dealer.

He said upside for the metal was still in place as it continued to track the Euro.

The European currency's downward correction against the dollar last night, he said, was also a factor weighing on the gold price. The trader said, however, that the Euro was expected to strengthen further against the dollar from its current levels of around $0.935, which in turn would lift the gold price.

But that will be cold comfort for gold share traders who took a haircut in the market today. In Johannesburg, Gold Fields, the darling of the market last month, dropped 10.49 percent to R129.43, while non-hedging rival Harmony Gold lost 8.82 percent to R163.60.

Durban Roodepoort Deep dumped 6.18 percent to close on R51.65 and AngloGold, the bourse's number one dropped 6 percent from yesterday's record close to R628 a share. New entrant ARMGold lost 4.2 percent to R55.85 and junior Afrikander Lease took a 9.09 percent hammering to R6.36.

In Australia, the dip was less marked. Auriongold, the subject of a takeover bid by North American Placer Dome, shed 1.74 percent, while number two producer Newcrest dipped 1.09 percent to A$8.19.

YGMGolden Bar...Ed Bugos Latest...Excellent! Compare the so called Gold Bubble to Real One#776016/6/02; 00:35:45


Now, the day they get the headline right is the day they get my subscription. Before the bull market in gold is over we predict they will. Thus, one day, not too long into the future, the headline will read: Gold Is Money.

By then maybe our headline will be the Gold Bubble!

Those clever analysts at Barclays beat us to it though. They say there's a bubble in gold prices today. So just to be thorough we went and looked at some graphs to get a handle on this breaking news.

Were we ever let down. To think that such a solid tip from as reputable a source as Barclays Capital could turn out to be a lemon, well, we were in dismay to say the least. They could use a good bubble analyst, preferably one that has more than just a lamentable understanding of money. If one can't tell the difference between what a bubble is and what it isn't, how can they know what is safe?

Maybe it's because we've been showing too many of those short-term charts lately, or maybe Barclays' charting service doesn't have long-term graphs. I don't know, but someone show me where there is a bubble in this market, please.

Cont'd @ Link....

YGMDestruction of Worlds Currencies...Larry Parks.....(FAME) #776026/6/02; 00:56:53

Chart.........@ Link....

**THIS IS A "MUST SEE"...the loss of buying power is phenominal.....YGM

Concluding remarks....

As can be seen from the above chart, that world's experience with fiat money for the period 1950 to 1990 has been a disaster for ordinary people. Countries such as Argentina, which, as of this writing on 5/31/02, is in the midst of yet another currency collapse, do not have a clue that the source of their problem is that their money is no good.

With results such as these, it would appear that any faith in fiat money is entirely misplaced. It should be noted, too, that this kind of chart is unlikely to appear on the pages of any major media outlet, nor on the pages of any current economics text book.

BelgianIn a hurry....#776036/6/02; 01:28:41

Euroland (France finance's minister) wants a "stable" euro BUT NOT NECESSARY A STRONG EURO !!!!
Explains a lot about the overnight deal > trade of minus 9$ on POG ! To be continued....

SpartacusThe Dollar#776046/6/02; 01:28:48

New York, June 5 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may drop as much as 15 percent against major currencies in the next two years, extending a four-month slide as demand for U.S. assets wanes, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
J.P. Morgan forecasting models show that ``fair value'' for the dollar is $1-to-$1.05 per euro and 105-to-110 yen.

SpartacusUS Portfolio Inflows - Disillusion vs. Dependence (Morgan Stanley) #776056/6/02; 01:41:46

After a sluggish start this year, net US portfolio inflows soared to nearly $67 billion in March versus $11.4 billion and $15.4 billion, respectively, in January and February. We harbor doubts as to the sustainability of such robust inflows, but we do not subscribe to the budding consensus that the world is poised to sell the US short.
But we think there is another dynamic at work that will stymie a dramatic resurgence in US capital inflows. Inflows have become bifurcated, with diminished flows from Euroland increasingly offset by rising flows from Asia.
The appetite among Euroland investors for US securities is just not what it used to be.
European investors are growing increasingly disillusioned with US securities, lacking faith in the US profits recovery and the overall quality of earnings.
In Japan and non-Japan Asia, the dynamics that worry Euroland investors take a back seat to even greater worries associated with a plunging US dollar that undercuts the global competitiveness of Asia's leading exporters. No country in Asia wants its currency to rally too quickly or too strongly against the dollar, given the region's underlying dependence on the US market for export growth. This has in turn prompted central banks in Japan, Australia, South Korea, and other nations to buy dollar-denominated assets in an effort to staunch the dollar's decline.
One of the biggest risks we see to continued demand for US assets lies with the growing attraction to gold. According to the World Gold Council, purchases of gold investments surged 36% in the first quarter, with strong demand emanating from Vietnam, Japan, China, and Pakistan. In Japan alone, demand for gold more than doubled in the first quarter of this year from the same period a year ago. As global uncertainties continue to mount, America's lender of last resort — Asia — may be tempted to shift dollar-denominated assets to gold, a development that would undermine the last pillar of dollar support.

WAC (Wide Awake Club)War Against Terrorism yielding fruits - BP to build its longest ever pipeline#776066/6/02; 03:05:11

BAKU (Reuters) - Oil major BP (LSE: BP.L - news - msgs) says it will start building its longest ever pipeline from Azerbaijan to the Turkish port of Ceyhan next year, with the Caspian oil set to reach the Mediterranean by 2005.

The head of BP Azerbaijan David Woodward said on Thursday the $2.9-billion (two billion pounds) Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, once dismissed as too costly and a link lacking in oil, was now inevitable.

nickel62Electric Market Analysis from a Mises Institute Economist#776076/6/02; 03:30:43


No doubt, both congressional and FERC staffers (and even their superiors) know what went wrong in California and why it happened. For that matter, even California Gov. Gray Davis declared that the crisis would be over if he were to permit retail electricity prices to increase, but then he said that was an unacceptable solution. However, if these folks actually were to declare publicly that the problem was not with electricity producers and distributors but rather with the politicians and bureaucrats who hatched the scheme, then their game would be over. Moreover, if a free market were to be enacted in both intrastate and interstate markets, then the politicians and bureaucrats would find themselves in that most terrible (for them) condition: irrelevance.

SpartacusIs The Declining Dollar "Checkmate" For Mr. Greenspan?#776086/6/02; 03:35:03

---But if the US dollar continues to depreciate, which I think it will with only minor countertrend rallies, then Mr. Greenspan is going to lose the policy latitude to keep printing greenbacks at will. Ironically, though, until Greenspan takes action to slow the dollar's decline, he will be forced to print even more dollars.----

Spartacus: Don´t miss this one. An impressing economic commentary by Paul Kasriel.

GraefinWhat's up wit POG and POS??#7760906/06/02; 04:27:23

Good Lord! Ya leave for one day, a one-day trip to Hannover to see a silly little horse show, and what happens?? The POG and POS drops through the floor! What did you all do to the market?? eh?? Who is responsible??
Speaking of which...I need to go see my horse now too. Just got back from cutting her out of a fence. She rolled over into it. Silly fillie!

goldquestCrash Warning For June 11#7761006/06/02; 06:25:04

Gloom and doom for those who do not have Gold.
koala bearLooking for a book review#7761106/06/02; 06:39:21

Could someone post a review of Ferdinand Lips’ book, ‘Gold Wars’? I am contemplating buying it and would appreciate an opinion on it. I think Golden Bear said he had just acquired a copy. Any good?
Tommy PA view point , good read#7761206/06/02; 06:58:25

Gold/Stock Market Manipulation -
Plunge Protection Team At Work?
Commentary Certified Mint Inc.

Today, the gold market saw the price correction that many analysts, especially those with bearish biases, have been predicting since gold crossed $290. Actually, the drop started last night in the ACCESS, an electronic system operated by NYMEX where gold trades along with the Asian and the Australian markets. (ACCESS lets the New York houses keep a piece of the 24-hour gold market. NYMEX owns ACCESS, and also COMEX. ACCESS closes 20 minutes before the COMEX opens, where the exchange members make their really big money.)

Shortly after ACCESS opened, some 700,000 to 800,000 ounces were dumped. The always politically correct World Gold Council suggested in its Daily Commentary that the selling was due to technical analysis. Some analysts immediately saw the work of the Plunge Protection Team (PPT), which they say has conspired to keep the Dow Industrials from collapsing and the price of gold from skyrocketing. Here,Äôs one private analyst's view:

Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters) has commented on the fact that every time the stock market gets poised for a major break [down], someone (PPT?) rushes in with a well orchestrated plan to counter the bearish move. Tuesday was a perfect example of this, because after the market action on the previous Thursday and Friday failed to turn the tide back up, the action on Monday looked very bad, forcing the PPT to a special effort on Tuesday.

During the day, they persuaded Barton Biggs to put out a bullish statement on stocks. Biggs has been a bear, and I personally doubt he has seen enough evidence to change his mind without sufficient arm twisting by the Wall Street establishment. After all, he is part of that club, and he has been on the outside in the past few months. I feel certain his reversal went a long way to bring buying into stocks with other actions by the PPT.

Next there was a bear raid on the price of gold after the New York close (the dumping of 700,000 to 800,000 ounces). To aid in that bear raid, someone got to Caroline Baum and persuaded her to write an attack on gold ownership.

It seems very convenient from the standpoint of the PPT that Richard Russell's voice was stilled at least for a little while when his website went down. I have wondered for some time how the "Powers that Be" could let Russell preach the bear case for stocks, the bull case for gold, and expressly expose the fraud imposed on the world by the fiat dollar, without somehow trying to close him down. Is it possible the PPT hacked his website?

All of these efforts to change the bearish tide in the stock market and the bullish tide in the gold market are nothing more than delaying tactics in a financial war where short term battles are won but the war will ultimately be lost as unalterable forces push events to their inevitable conclusion.

Now, the question: is this the correction or is it the first day of a correction that will last for weeks, perhaps bringing gold back to the $300 level. Most assuredly, the bears will see this as the start of a major correction. Some will declare gold's rally to be over. Like the recession that never was, to the bears this will be the rally that never was--if gold is driven significantly lower.

However, like the analyst noted above said, these are delaying tactics by an army that is losing. In the end, unalterable forces will push events to their inevitable conclusion. Paper money will not--cannot--triumph over gold. Investors need to prepare for what's going to happen over next three years, not the next three weeks or three months.

Email This Article Crash Indices......#7761306/06/02; 07:40:08

Still not into crash mode except Internet stuff.....
YGMCliff Droke Re-Visited...Stage Set for Monumental 2002 Crash....#7761406/06/02; 08:02:06


One of the very few investment advisers reviewed by Mansfield that we agree with is Bernard Schaeffer of Schaeffer's Investment Research. Schaeffer has a track record of being right on the market more often than not, so his predictions have weight. Here is how he answered the Year 2002 survey: Dow forecast: Decline to 8,000 or lower: Yes. NASDAQ forecast: Bottomed in Sept. '01: No. Decline below 1500: Yes. Rally to 2500-2800 area: No. Secular bear market: Yes. Market at current level is: Overvalued. Reduce equity exposure on near-term strength: Yes. Post "9-11" tragedy present any positions: Gold. U.S. economy will stay in recession: Yes. Industry group favorites: Gold. 5 best stocks: KKD, NVDA, NEM, ODP, PCLN.

Here is how he summarizes the market situation for 2002: "Wall Street strategists are the most bullish since the 1990s, the same group that was bearish heading in the rally beginning in late-1994. These high expectations leave the market vulnerable in the midst of the current bear market, optimism about the economy in 2002 and little signs of a "V-type" recovery. Full capitulation has yet to come." We concur with Mr. Schaeffer's assessment.

The bears will come out far and away the big winners on Wall Street in 2002. The "big one" we've all been waiting for will shortly begin, and with it will come a multitude of precious opportunities. Are you prepared?

Clif Droke

The VictorianDollar is dropping like a stone again#7761506/06/02; 08:12:53

I wonder what's up now. I noticed POG was rising and checked the dollar index, to find it dropping off a cliff again. Time to turn on the news and see what is going on in the world?
Christian(No Subject)#7761606/06/02; 08:19:31

Most of the banks that make up the FED and many other banks, corporations and state entities and others with huge short positions are buying into junior gold stocks in order to cover their short positions indirectly by buying major stakes in these in ground gold holdings. Also the Bank of Japan is trying to hold up the dollar so the Japanese publicv can liquidate US$ denominated securities before liquidity is a problem. The Carlyle Group is shorting entire indexes and they can push this market down all by themselves no matter what the PPT does. We on thei forum should use our individual knowledge to list 5 gold stocks that will do the best from this day June 6th thil next June 6th. I as an individual would be willing to donate $100.00 to the winner who can come up with the best gold stock gainers listed before the last day of JULY. Keep in mind that there won;t be a winner declared until after the market closing of next year June the 6th.
ArcticfoxPPT#7761706/06/02; 08:33:34

If there is validity to the theory of "PPT", then at what point will the US government own the GE's and IBM's? And as major shareholders don't they have to disclose this?
barnacle billkoala bear #7761806/06/02; 08:42:09

Gold Wars - book review

I don't have time to write a full-length book review. I will say that I have read a lot of books on the subject; and that I would certainly place Gold Wars among the top three.

In other words - buy it! You'll be glad you did.

barnacle billTommyP Re#77612#7761906/06/02; 09:03:10

article by Caroline Baum

I read the article by Ms Baum, I found it sophomoric at best. Ms Baum says that there are two situations for the ownership of gold. The first is rising interest rates, and the second is inflation. She must have overlooked the fact that India and Pakistan are about to nuke each other. She said nothing about currency instability, or gold price manipulation, to name a few other situations.

She went on to say that gold is expensive to hold. She mentioned Treasury Bills, notes, and bonds as alternatives. She could have said 'pick a domino, any domino'.

She also said that Japanese buying gold makes no sense, as cash gains in a deflationary enviroment. True enough as far as the cash gains part goes, but will the yen still be around?

Gold is eternal.

The HoopleFamiliar script, different ending?#7762006/06/02; 09:14:17

After a suspicious gold bash yesterday right on cue the WSJ sees fit to publish prominently on C-1 a story "Was That the End of the Gold-Price Rally?", sub-titled "Is Current Rally a "Trojan" Horse?" Kaplan, Gero, WGC are all trotted out to urge extreme caution. I've never seen such fear over a measly 20% move in anything, period. They never devoted a C-1 feature when gold rallied. Funny they now hammer the decline in jewelry demand as bearish while no mention is made of Asian, Indian, Arab or Chinese demand for real MONEY. You can smell the fear now on Wall Street. Like the Schwab commercial says its time to put the lipstick on this pig and sell it. These stories will be remembered by the publc when 300% gains are missed,and when 70% more paper losses are incurred. I get more bullish on gold with each insipid WSJ or Barron's story.
Cavan ManThe Hoople#7762106/06/02; 09:44:10

We're at the end of the game. It's going to be like this.
luckypierreGuide to the stock market#7762206/06/02; 09:56:49

Just got this from a friend - author unknown:

Bull Market - A random market movement causing an
investor to mistake himself for a financial genius

Bear Market - A 6 to 18 month period when the kids
get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry and the
husband gets no sex.

Momentum Investing - the fine art of buying high
and selling low

Value Investing - The art of buying low and selling lower

P/E ratio - The percentage of investors wetting
their pants as the market keeps crashing

Broker - what my broker has made me

"Buy, Buy" - A flight attendant making market
recommendations as you step off the plane.

Standard & Poor - your life in a nutshell

Stock Analyst - idiot who just downgraded your stock

Stock Split - when your ex-wife and her lawyer
split all your assets equally between themselves

Financial Planner - A guy who actually remembers his
wallet when he runs to the 7-11 for toilet paper and cigarettes

Market Correction - The day after you buy stocks

Cash Flow - the movement your money makes as it
disappears down the toilet

Yahoo - What you yell after selling it to some poor
sucker for $240 per share

Windows 2000 - What you jump out of when you're the
sucker that bought Yahoo @240 per share

Institutional Investor - Past year investor who's
now locked up in a nuthouse

Profit - religious guy who talks to God

Alan Greenspan - God

Bill Gates - Where God goes for a loan

The Hoopleluckypierre#7762306/06/02; 10:15:32

My favorite quote was from Woody Allen: "Investment professionals are people who help you invest your money until it's all gone".
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio#7762406/06/02; 10:30:16

gold sovereigns
Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance-credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

Gold has no employees, no overhead, and no financial statement to balance. It cannot go bankrupt. Gold is wealth itself. It is valued worldwide on the basis of its uniquely reliable form and function -- a steadfast financial commodity which is immune to the contagious collapses to which all financial paper is prone.

In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

shelllush.schultz and j.sinclair #7762506/06/02; 11:08:39

posted today on le metro cafe--can anyone copy and paste it here?
TownCriershelllus reprint request#7762606/06/02; 11:29:57

Any wholesale copying & pasting effort would have to be subsequently removed from our forum per the standing request/direction of Mr. Murphy as proprietor of the site that is the source of the material you are seeking.

In order to avoid copyright infringements, I would urge anyone having an interest in filling your repost request that they instead try to emulate what I do with news articles -- carefully choose some brief excerpts that represent the key point, and follow up with discussion of its relevance to the gold market or to a person's potential finanancial well-being.

Anyone interested in exploring the ideas further may then visit the full article and provide additional discussion as they see fit to do so. Finally, I hope this guidance has been taken as helpful rather than stifling for future contributors to the Forum.


Sierra MadreA brief pause amid the concerns of the day....#7762706/06/02; 12:02:12


Rudyard Kipling

WHEN first by Eden Tree,
The Four Great Rivers ran.
To each was appointed a Man
Her Prince and Ruler to be.

But after this was ordained,
(The ancient legends tell),
There came dark Israel,
For whom no River remained.

Then He Whom the Rivers obey
Said to him: fling on the ground
A handful of yellow clay,
And a Fifth Great River shall run,
Mightier than these Four,
In secret the Earth around;
And Her secret evermore,
Shall be shown to thee and thy Race.’

So it was said and done.
And, deep in the veins of Earth,
And, fed by a thousand springs
That comfort the market-place,
Or sap the power of Kings,
The Fifth Great River had birth,
Even as it was foretold—
The Secret River of Gold!

And Israel laid down
His sceptre and his crown
To brood on that River bank,
Where the waters flashed and sank,
And burrowed in earth and fell,
And bided a season below,
For reason that none might know,
Save only Israel.

He is Lord of the Last—
The Fifth, most wonderful, Flood.
He hears Her thunder past
And Her Song is in his blood.
He can foresay: ‘She will fall,’
For he knows which fountain dries;
Behind which desert-belt
A thousand leagues to the South.
He can foresay: ‘She will rise.’
He knows what far snows melt:
Along what mountain-wall
A thousand leagues to the North.
He snuffs the coming drouth
As he snuffs the coming rain,
He knows what each will bring forth,
And turns it to his gain.

A Ruler without a Throne,
A Prince without a Sword,
Israel follows his quest.
In every land a guest,
Of many lands a lord,
In no land King is he.
But the Fifth Great River keeps
The secret of Her deeps
For Israel alone,
As it was ordered to be.

GuidedThe Hoople & Cavan Man (77620 & 77621) - Observations#7762806/06/02; 12:45:10

Pretty intriquing insight from both of you on this WSJ feature. Hoople, did you mean a two percent move rather than twenty or did I miss something. Anyway, the point is well made.

Maybe a fitting quote from King Solomon. A man who owned more gold than anyone in history and will never be equaled. I think he saw the likes of these characters in his day.

It comes from Proverbs 20:14

"It is naught, it is naught, saith the buyer: but when he is gone his way, then he boasteth."

sector@ TheHoople---The Wall Street Journal's Anti-Gold Bias#7762906/06/02; 13:44:36

It Couldn't Have More Clarity

The latest WSJ bugle against gold as an investment represents an important "Dot" on the financial map. It tells us that an editor instructed a writer to bash gold in concert with the Asian (But probably NOT by Asians) selling orgy [700,000 ounces].

Well gold is $325 or so today and the forces of evil have failed AGAIN to smash it downward.

Your observation that things will get real hot with 300% gold equity gains is a good one. Nothing attracts hot money like success unless it's "Too much" protestation from the financial media.

I met with a senior writer for the WSJ and gave him everything...well ALMOST everything. He has ignored me since. It's not that he doesn't believe's that he doesn't WANT to believe us.

For to accept our premise is to admit the pending failure of the US currency and hence the failure of the economy. These dimwit journalists can't seem to visualize the US as Argentina...can't seem to accept that their life savings can be "Evaporated"...that their "Retirement" is all a mirage.

Dick Cheny has told us to expect a terrorist nuclear strike as "...inevitable". The financial media gurus seem to accept THAT but NOT the idea that their Master of the Universe just may be impotent against gold.

They have the "Deer in the Headlights" look.

OZSinclair#7763006/06/02; 14:09:38

Gold Market losses $10 from high to low
In 36 hours of trading
By James Sinclair & HD Schultz

Gold came down from an interday world high just below $330 to a world interday low just above $320 within 36 hours of trading. The gold market appears to have been prepared for this experience by the multitude of bearish reports concerning overbought technicals from interational investment banking houses. As an example Goldman Sachs downgraded major producers saying this week that they had meet their price objectives. However the source of this sell off was not the so-called Gold Cartel personalities.

$330 was a perfect place for gold to have peaked temporarily as it represented highs and lows of trading (resistance areas) formed in 1998, 1999 and 2000. Selling last night and today came from an unnamed international bullion pool, not a fund and was determined in its activity seemingly without regard for price. Selling such as that usually has as its intention the establishments of a price more than volume focused liquidation.

Gold will declare itself in terms of if or not it is the beginning stages of a long-term major bull market NOW. We shall see if Dr. No and Hung Fat are for real. We will know if the derivative squeeze is really at hand. That will be demonstrated by gold's action over the next few days and possibly weeks. Gold can decline to a maximum of $303 but should find support of significance at $317.36 which has the ability to reverse this downdraft.

The high trade of gold was at $329.94 or 61.8% Fibinocci number. That sounds to us as if the downdraft was caused not by the Cartel but rather by Dr. No and Hung Fat themselves to slow down the gold move in order to ease the tensions now building within the central bank community over gold's rapid ascent.

There is a good deal of talk in central banks circles that the goal of Zero Inflation must be muffled. The fear is that Zero Inflation goal of the 1980s is now be equated to a Japanese type of Deflationary experience that is not good for the NASDAQ or S&P indexes. They both looked yesterday like death rolled over. If the major indexes were to collapse here and now the incipient economic recovery (not profits recovery) might come to a screeching halt and reverse into a Japanese type economic disease. Dr. No and Hung Fat know that if gold's rise does not get extreme now, it is tolerable and will not bring in central bank opposition.

In conclusion: the primary Asian Bulls sold off this gold market, not the usual suspects, the gold cartel brokers Morgan and Goldman. The Major Bulls are shaking the tree. If the gold market holds by not falling below the Fibinocci 50% 317.36 then the full bull is on right now and right here. Assuming that the $303- $305 which is the Fibinocci 38.2% level holds, the gold bull market is still on but with ease and determination, not excitement and fury.

contact HD Schultz

JE Sinclair CEO & Chairman TNX

TownCrierMr. Warner's afternoon gold report: Make this URL your first visit each day after the close#7763106/06/02; 14:14:07


June 6, 2002 ( -- Gold rebounded off of recent selling to close higher at $325.50 by the close of trading in New York. The Comex Gold and silver futures were boosted to session highs on Thursday, supported by an easing in the U.S. dollar and a lower stock market according to floor traders. OsterDowJones at reports one floor trader as saying "We saw some good buying from Morgan Stanley and Chase Bank. It looks like the dollar came off a little bit and the equities fell, so they started buying gold."

Another positive for gold is that Newmont Mining reports it expects to unwind 1 million more ounces of hedges in 2002. Also helping gold, according to dealers, were a fall in the dollar to a new 16-month low against the euro...

...The dollar may decline as much as 15 percent against its biggest rivals in the next two years, extending a four-month slide as demand for U.S. assets wanes, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. The dollar's slide since February is ``the real deal,'' said Rebecca Patterson, a currency strategist at J.P. Morgan. ``You're not going to have enough flows'' of money from abroad to push the currency higher. Demand for U.S. debt is also waning. Net purchases of Treasury bonds by non-U.S. investors in the first quarter were 30 percent less than a year earlier...

--------(click URL for full text)-------

Another excellent overview. Warning to readers: visiting this page could be habit forming.

GuidedVery funny Posts from Luckypierre and Hoople's Woody Allen Quote#7763206/06/02; 14:18:03

Thanks for the humor. A good laugh...
GuidedThe Black Blade Habit#7763306/06/02; 14:26:32

What do you mean TownCrier? "could be habit forming". It's a little late for that warning.....

Thanks to both...

Black BladeTelco debt now exceeds S&L, junk bond levels - May delay U.S. rate hikes#7763406/06/02; 14:33:46


The U.S. economy's exposure to telecom debt is almost as large as its exposure to the 1980s savings and loan crisis and the 1990s junk bond failure combined, new research shows. The massive debt load, along with the fact that business spending is likely to remain moribund for some time, will likely keep the U.S. Federal Reserve from raising interest rates this year, Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets, said in a report yesterday "I'm saying there will be no meaningful recovery in business spending this year and therefore I don't think the Fed will go," Mr. Rubin said.

Black Blade: Bigger than S&L and Junk Bond failure combined? Hmmm… Yep, looks like an economic recovery all right.

Black BladeIs The Declining Dollar "Checkmate" For Mr. Greenspan?#7763506/06/02; 14:46:07


I have always maintained that so long as Mr. Greenspan could keep "printing" dollars at will, the economic checkmate from the burst 1990s' stock market bubble could be delayed. And, as the chart below shows, Mr. Greenspan did indeed print a lot of dollars last year. On a year-over-year basis, M2 growth went from about 6% at the end of 2000 to about 9% just before September 11, 2001. The spike right after September 11 was due to a lot of bank credit extended to cover overdrafts resulting from disruptions in the payments system. Even though M2 growth has slowed this year, the latest reading of 8% still implies a lot of overtime printing activity at the Fed.

But if the US dollar continues to depreciate, which I think it will with only minor countertrend rallies, then Mr. Greenspan is going to lose the policy latitude to keep printing greenbacks at will. Ironically, though, until Greenspan takes action to slow the dollar's decline, he will be forced to print even more dollars. Here's how that works. Once the forex sharks smell the blood in the water, they will start to borrow dollars in order to sell them for euros, yen or gold.

Black Blade: Check and Mate! Interesting analysis – "short the dollar". As in chess, this time the Knight is pinned against the King, and it is now one "discovered check" after another. Still might be time to get "cheap" Gold and Silver portfolio insurance.

Black BladeThe Airlines’ Recovery Is Stalling#7763606/06/02; 14:57:19


The May reports indicate a recovery for airlines has been stalled. After traffic improved every month from October to March, it worsened in April and for the most part, the reports for May are coming in weaker than expected.

Black Blade: Airline activity is a good barometer of the economy. When business is improving, so is airline traffic. The fact that airlines are falling flat with declining traffic, even after lowering fares and getting a governmnet bail out, is not a very good sign. Yet another sign that the economy is in bad shape. Not much of a recovery.

The CoinGuyRoach's(MWD) Commentary on the dollar from the Global Economic Forum#7763706/06/02; 15:06:24


You'll need to click on the agreement at the bottom, but coming from Stephen, this is worthy commentary to give consideration. Will also need realplayer or Windows media player.

As a side note, aftermarket trading is looking down right scary...

Got Gold? and for Ski/RPowell - Got Silver?


P.S. TC, Great commentary from Jon Warner

Black BladeTech companies raise reserves for bad debts#7763806/06/02; 15:13:43


Investors are hoping the worst is over for tech might not want to know that some leading companies have been quietly bracing for tougher times. Cisco Systems, IBM, Ciena, Hewlett-Packard and others have been raising allowances for deadbeat customers — a sign that no matter what they say publicly, top tech companies are worried about even more bankruptcies amid fallout from the tech implosion. This could foreshadow "things are not going as well as thought," says Aalok Shah, analyst at Pacific Crest.

Black Blade: "things are not going as well as thought" – Yeah, I would say so. Times are tough for these big techies mentioned as well. Cisco earnings are questionable as they are released as Pro Forma and there is the big question of "synthetic leases" and the accounting of employee options. IBM is still laying off thousands – 1,500 more announced this week. Ciena has been spiraling out of control for some time now and has many of the same questions about accounting. HP is laying off a few tens of thousands. Yep, another sign of economic recovery.

Hey Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley is up next at bat on CNBC. Going to discuss weak US Dollar.

Black BladeWhen Scandal Isn't Sexy#7763906/06/02; 15:31:23


What's the biggest stock market story of the past five years? (Hint: It makes Enron look like a rounding error.) The easy winner by any gauge of dollars lost or human beings affected is the telecom bubble, and it's worth asking why this mammoth event sits in the hazy background of most people's consciousness. The explanation is not especially comforting for those of us in the media. Intoxicated by the prospect of data traffic doubling every three or four months indefinitely, telecom firms around the world put down fiber-optic cable as fast as they could. The work cost some $4 trillion over the past five years, at least half of it borrowed. Pause for a moment: That's trillion, with a "t." It is not a word you see all that often in connection with individual industries. For perspective, remember that the entire output of the U.S. economy, the planet's largest by far, is about $10 trillion.

Black Blade: That's right! I have been surprised that no one in the financial media has hit this topic a bit more. So far over 500,000 people from this sector have been tossed upon the growing "Bone Pile", and as many more will be added soon. Someone will be paying the price – guess who that will be. Still a deafening silence from CNBC and CNNfn.

BTW, the unemployment report for the trailing week fell below 400,000. The week prior was revised higher as usual. However, continuing claims rose by 29,000. Oops! Looks like we are still at recession levels. Next weeks data is widely expected to rise.

I was hoping to catch the Roach interview on CNBC, but gotta go to the gym for the daily workout.

PizzTech / SM's looking bad for tomorrow morning#7764006/06/02; 15:49:20

Intel gave less than stellar news after the markets closed today, revenues down but with the standard "it will be better in the second half" - yea, how long will they continue that song, well, probably til its correct.

Aftermarket has Intel down 3, Microsoft down 2 (under 50) and the S&P futures have the DOW down to 9500 at the open (based upon 10 to 1 Dow to S&P).

Gold should do well tomorrow, but with the Pres speaking tonite on our loss of freedom's he has in mind, the markets in the morning, should be a real interesting Friday.


Golden Bearkoala bear (msg#: 77611)#7764106/06/02; 16:40:51

Gold Wars review

Greetings koala,

ordered it about 1 week ago from that big online retailer that was supposed to go to $400 ;)

Haven't received it yet, living in Oz, it takes about 2-3 weeks to get here... and then I've got to read it.

Will let you know then, and barnacle bill (msg#: 77618) says it's top shelf material.

Can't wait...


OzzieGonna stay in bed tomorrow......#7764206/06/02; 17:18:53

....gotta hangnail.
USAGOLDShort & Sweet. . . .#7764306/06/02; 17:29:57

"There is the elusive center of the experience (i.e., the stock bull market), the fantasy that we might become free of economic law." (New Yorker magazine, December, 1999) . . . . . . . . .

Fantasy indeed. . . . . Who told it like it is when Wall Street was busily sinking its fingernails into the American investor's back?


While Wall Street was blowing smoke, we were breathing fire. The real story was being told here at USAGOLD Forum. And not just by us, but our posters too. Day-in, day-out, day after day, we got the message out. Those who listened saved millions. Those who didn't ended up on the wrong side of the ledger in the 21st century financial wars. . . . . . . . . . . Analysis you can rely on. News you can use. Find it here at USAGOLD Forum -- Open 24 hours a day, seven days a week! . . . . . . . . Felix Rohatyn: "Our system of market capitalism requires a high level of Protestant ethic." And absent that??. . . . . . . . How about putting your portfolio on the gold standard? . . . . . . . . . . Congratulations to Black Blade (Jon Warner) on his first set of Daily Market Reports. They are everything we thought they would be . . . . . . . . .

misetichTelecom Debt - Greenspan checkmate!#7764406/06/02; 17:46:31

For the record, the U.S. economy's exposure to telecom debt is now almost as large as its exposure to the 1980s savings and loan crisis and the 1990s junk bond failure combined. That's according to Jeff Rubin, chief economist at CIBC World Markets. If you tally it up, outstanding telecom debt is about 5% of GDP. In 1989, Rubin's report figures that exposure to junk bond debt in 1989 was closer to 3.5% of GDP. In the late 1980s, it cost taxpayers about 3% of GDP to bail out the S&L industry. Based on the Fed's willingness to keep rates low for months and months following the above two disasters, Rubin's betting on a similar performance this time around.

kramrichAnyone we know planning on going to Iraq?#7764506/06/02; 17:51:41

'Decisive Response' Needed to Iraq Threat -
Thu Jun 6, 6:07 PM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites) said on Thursday there
was a growing danger of terrorist groups acquiring weapons of mass destruction the United
States says are being developed in Iraq and that this required a decisive response.

"This gathering danger requires the most careful, deliberate and decisive response by
Americans and our allies," Cheney said in a speech to the National Association of

kramrichFriends want to go to Iraq too.#7764606/06/02; 17:54:22

U.S., British defense chiefs say Iraq poses
growing threat
Thu Jun 6, 2:15 AM ET

By ROBERT BURNS, AP Military Writer

BRUSSELS, Belgium - The United States and Britain, partners for more than a decade in
containing Iraq's military might, say the regime of Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) poses an
increasing threat.

"We know that Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq has had a sizable appetite for weapons of
mass destruction," and it is finding ways to acquire their ingredients, Defense Secretary
Donald H. Rumsfeld said Wednesday.

"We know the borders into that country are quite porous," he added, allowing Iraq to import
technologies useful for both civilian and military industries "as well as illicit materials that are
helpful in their programs for weapons of mass destruction."

"There is not a doubt in the world that with every month that goes by, their programs
mature," he said in London before flying to Brussels for meetings Thursday and Friday with
NATO (news - web sites) allies.

Iraq denies it possesses or is developing weapons of mass destruction, but it has refused to
allow the international inspections that it accepted as a condition of ending the 1991 Gulf War
(news - web sites).

Rumsfeld would not discuss the possibility of U.S. military action to topple Saddam, saying
that was a matter for President George W. Bush (news - web sites) to decide. He spoke at a joint
news conference with British Defense Minister Geoff Hoon after meetings to discuss Iraq and
other issues.

kramrichIraq#7764706/06/02; 17:58:13

U.N. Inspectors May Return to Iraq
Mon Jun 3, 7:24 PM ET

By EDITH M. LEDERER, Associated Press Writer

UNITED NATIONS (AP) - U.N. weapons inspectors are preparing for
a possible return to Iraq, studying satellite photos, looking at
possible sites to visit, and working on a list of disarmament
issues that Baghdad still must answer, the U.N. inspection agency
said in a report Monday.

kramrichIraq...may last post today on iraq but it looks like we're going soon.#7764806/06/02; 18:02:32

Gephardt Backs Offensive vs. Iraq
Tue Jun 4, 8:31 AM ET

By DAVID ESPO, AP Special Correspondent

WASHINGTON (AP) - House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt is
offering support to the Bush administration if it decides to use
force to topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein (news - web sites).

"I share President Bush (news - web sites)'s
resolve to confront this menace head-on,"
the Missouri Democrat, a likely
presidential contender in 2004, said in a
speech prepared for delivery on Tuesday

OzzieIf you could only see....#7764906/06/02; 18:03:34

....what I have seen with your eyes.....something is UP!
BoxmanKulow and Kramer on Gold stocks#7765006/06/02; 18:11:22

Next segment is on Gold stocks. Should be interesting.
shelllusschultz &sinclair on the selloff#7765106/06/02; 18:13:28

Gold will declare itself in terms of if or not it is the beginning stages of a long-term major bull market NOW. We shall see if Dr. No and Hung Fat are for real. We will know if the derivative squeeze is really at hand. That will be demonstrated by gold's action over the next few days and possibly weeks. Gold can decline to a maximum of $303 but should find support of significance at $317.36 which has the ability to reverse this downdraft.

The high trade of gold was at $329.94 or 61.8% Fibinocci number. That sounds to us as if the downdraft was caused not by the Cartel but rather by Dr. No and Hung Fat themselves to slow down the gold move in order to ease the tensions now building within the central bank community over gold's rapid ascent.

any comments?

ArcticfoxKudlow and Kramer#7765206/06/02; 18:50:32

I'm in shock. Kramer just stated on CNBC that after 15 years he may have to buy a gold stock. Also, Kudlow acknowledged gold as having a monetary value. Amazing...
Black BladeKudlow and Cramer – Gold#7765306/06/02; 19:04:00

What do you know? I come back from the gym just in time to hear the Troll say that he and Kudlow were going to interview the CEO of the best Gold company in the world. I figured that since this was the Heckel and Jeckel show, they must be talking about Barrick. Sure enough, Randall Oliphant was the guest. I have to admit that the interview was not that bad considering the participants. They did address the role of Gold to some degree and that the outlook was good for Gold. Of course there were the wild claims about Barrick being the "best positioned company", however, it was not that bad of an interview. Even the Troll said he might buy a Gold stock now. Oh well, at least the word is getting out.

- Black Blade

Now I will grab a couple of cold Negra Modelos and try to find the "devil in the details" about Dubya's plans to restrict freedom.

Black BladeGold Jumps and US Dollar Dips#7765406/06/02; 19:07:22

Anyone watching spot tonight? He's getting a bit frisky again - up $3.30 and the USD is dipping a bit.

- Black Blade

OzzieBlack Blade......'Troll?'......#7765506/06/02; 19:16:32

.....not very 'forgiving?'
Carl HBlack Blade $3.30?#7765606/06/02; 19:21:35

K says +$1.
OzzieFirst Friday in June.......#7765706/06/02; 19:22:01 we go!!
slingshotSpot on rise#7765806/06/02; 19:26:28

ACME Mercury Rocket kit

Lets see. Connect cable A to main bus package and main fuel line to throttle control. Yepper getting it all together;0)

Black BladeMarket Wrap Up - Puplava#7765906/06/02; 19:27:56

Energy Markets Stirring


Meanwhile, another storm is brewing in the energy markets. Although oil prices have pulled back over the last few weeks, oil prices are still running at close to $25 a barrel. Industry experts have drawn criticism from government and environmental groups for issuing warnings that global oil supplies will peak by 2010, ushering in an era of soaring energy prices and economic upheaval. Experts ranging from Matthew Simmons, an investment banker, to Colin J. Campbell, a renowned retired geologist, warn that government officials are too caught up in short-term issues to focus their attention on the rapid decline curve of the world's largest western producing oil fields. Campbell said oil companies refuse to talk about it because of the fear of upsetting their investors.

Government officials ignore these predictions as nothing but hot air designed to move officials to lighten up on environmental restrictions in the exploration of new oil and gas reserves. However, Roger Bentley, who heads up The Oil Depletion Analysis Center in London, insists that the predictions made earlier by King Hubbert were right on the money. Since the 1970's over 50 countries, which include the U.S., have now passed their point of peak oil output, and have gone into decline. The U.S., who once used to be self-sufficient in energy, must now import more than 60% of its daily energy needs. Furthermore, as more power plants are being built that will be gas-powered, the U.S. also faces natural gas shortages in the years ahead. The next energy crisis could come as soon as this winter. The last energy crisis ended in 2001 by a combination of events from weather to a declining economy. The most significant influence on total energy demand comes from weather. The U.S. had the good fortune to experience cooler summers and above average temperatures last winter. The weather, more than the recession, helped to bring us out of a crisis. Now we face another El Nino, which could bring warmer summers and a harsher winter. The recent drop in natural gas production by 6% year-over-year and a 45% drop in natural gas drilling due to lower prices has set the stage for another energy crisis by the fourth quarter of this year.

Black Blade: The latest natural gas storage injection data suggests that instead of rising as is normal at this time of year, the injection rates are nearly flat (50–80 bcf/week). We could be running short on NG come late winter. If summer temperatures are warmer than usual and we have a cold winter (as is normal), we might find ourselves in an energy crunch. There is more NG storage because there are more storage facilities that are needed to supply the additional new NG-fired power plants and those planned to come online. Remember that about half of the gas in these new facilities is "cushion gas" that will be needed to pressure the storage so that "working gas" can be withdrawn. Also remember that drilling and production activity has fallen off sharply.

Black BladeRe: CarlH and Ozzie#7766006/06/02; 19:44:17

Gold Quote

CRB has Gold up $1.20 from the NY close, while ino has Gold up $3.50 – but that is from the NY open. The changeover for ino is late tonight during trade in Asia, and then runs on till the NY open when it resets again. At least that is what I have noticed in the past. Kitco quotes tend to bounce all over the place and sometimes don't work at all. I do use Kitco graphs for a comparative check on Gold trends. The trading after NY close is however positive on all quote sites. Rather than cycle through various trading sessions around the globe, I just settled on ino from the NY open. Gold is continuing to rise after hours. It appears that Gold will recoup it's recent sell off shortly. Cheers!

Ozzie – maybe Troll (for Cramer) is a bit harsh, however, when I came in and turned on the tube, I thought I heard that puppet voice of "Alf" (the space fur ball?). I did a double take and saw Cramer. What can I say, maybe Troll isn't so harsh. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

OzzieBlack Blade....#7766106/06/02; 19:53:47

...Do you ever sleep?...Friend...thank you for the reality.
Black BladeDollar Falls to 16-Month Low Versus Euro as U.S. Stocks Decline#7766206/06/02; 19:55:09


New York, June 6 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar sank to a 16-month low against the euro as slumping U.S. stocks sapped demand for the currency. Investors are dumping U.S. assets and moving their money into Europe and Asia, sparking a four-month slide in the dollar, on concern a recovery in the world's biggest economy won't be strong enough to fuel a rebound in corporate profits in months ahead. ``There's a growing malaise over the U.S. dollar,'' said Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York. ``The psychology of the market has turned'' to expect further dollar losses because stocks may keep falling, he said.

Black Blade: Load up on "Cheap Gold" while you can. The US Dollar is poised to fall a lot further.

kramrichGOLD CYCLES CHART#7766306/06/02; 20:06:19

This gold cycles chart is uncanny in its accuracy in timing. Found it today and you guys might be interested.
Black BladeA Letter from Argentina#7766406/06/02; 20:24:44


Gold hoarders in Japan must surely be feeling Argentina's economic pain with a growing sense of urgency. We read that Japanese households are snapping up bullion by the ingot these days, apparently fearing that the problems which have plagued the nation's banking system for nearly a decade may be getting worse rather than better.Compared to Argentina, however, Japan is a picture of economic

Black Blade: The "Letter From Argentina" is a "Must Read!" Think it can't happen here? It already did once. It was called the Great Depression then. Read this and then think about why Japanese are snapping up Gold bullion.

WaveriderTownCrier/Black Blade#7766506/06/02; 20:39:47

When I click on the link for the afternoon update, I get the update for June 3rd...what am I missing here? TIA,

USAGOLDBlack Blade. . .#7766606/06/02; 20:47:41

With respect to the the letter from the Argentinean citizen in which he/she said:

". . . . the banks -- all of them, including Citibank, Boston, Banca Nazionale del Laboro, Societe General and Germany' second largest bank -- have simply stolen the people's savings. This is an unprecedented situation in modern times, and I am sure that, sooner or later, there will be repercussions elsewhere. But the fact is simply this: You had money in the bank one day; then, the next, when you tried to withdraw it, it wasn't there. All of the banks simply said, 'We don't have it.'"

A similar fate was delivered the people of Missouri when they were recently told that their state income tax refund checks would not be honored. No matter how the government frames it, monies overpaid in taxes to any government are rightfully money being held on deposit at the state by the individual taxpayer. Same difference. Can it happen it here? It has happened here and not in the distant past but no more than a month ago. Anyone who believes that it can't happen here is living in the same dreamland I referenced in my earlier post today.

sectorSaber Rattling Over Iraq#7766706/06/02; 20:48:23

Where's the Deterrence?

There is a considerable smoke screen being pumped out over Iraq.

The party line is that Saddam is a madman about to complete his arsenal of WMDs [Weapons of Mass Destruction] and we therefore must go in and depose him. There are several problems with this line of reasoning:

1. IF Iraq is a true threat to use a smuggled nuke or two why have we not invoked a nuclear deterrence policy? Nuclear deterrence has worked for over 55 years, why give up on it when we seem to need it the most?

Cheny chirps that terrorist's use of nuke on our soil is "...inevitable". He can't really believe that. If he DID he [And his President] would be actually DOING SOMETHING ABOUT IT. By listing the Wahabbist militant Islamist centers and promising to retaliate with nuclear weapons on them, we will be sending a clear message. But that message will upset Saudi Arabia since some of the most militant terrorists are there.

To do otherwise is to capitulate. Imagine it. New York wrecked [Crapped up is the industry term] by a ground-level nuke and the President, clueless with no retaliation plan, pulled between losing oil and defending America. One cannot wait until terrorists use nukes on us to begin thinking about all this, however this is exactly what the President is doing. His advisors are caught up with "Inside the Beltway Multi-Culturist" babble.

So... Bush has to choose and choose soon. Does he capitulate to Saudi Arabia and the other terrorists in the event of a nuke strike or does he develop and publish a plan to retaliate against our known terrorist enemies? It is Commerce vs. National Security, Political correctness vs. Destruction of your sworn enemies. Collateral damage? The opponents of National defense play this card. Does not the Koran preach "An Eye for an Eye"?

2. Fingerprinting ME visitors? How will THAT stop infiltrators? How will that inspect the thousands of uninspected cargo containers flowing into the US? Building a big "HomeLand Defense"? How does that identify the 100 admitted Al Qaeda in the US?
Temporarily closing visa applications from ME nations is a completely natural move during post 9/11. Why has it not happened?

3. The threat of martial law is a wonderful tool. It is a way to circumvent the ACLU and the other America hating legal groups. Gauging the response to a trial balloon would be a good first step.

Iraq is not from where the threat emanates. Non-existent border security with impotent deportation laws and hundreds of radical Islamic terrorists and their safe houses are the source of the threat. Moreover, the reluctance to establish a true terrorist nuclear deterrence policy, one that actually destroys terrorist centers is at the core of US apparent policy capitulation.

TownCrierWaverider, click your browser's Update (Reload) button#7766806/06/02; 20:57:00

If you see June 3 then your browser must be showing you it's old cached version. Reloading the page with the update button should take care it.


The HoopleGuided, Sector#7766906/06/02; 20:57:31

Guided: Sorry for delay, had to leave after those posts. When I referred to a 20% gold move I meant from roughly $275 last winter to the recent run to $330 . All during this move the WSJ publishes bearish reasons why it's nearly over. They'll be spinning bearish drivel north of $400 too.

Sector: I e-mailed Cheryl Einhorn at Barron's with similar information with same result, being ignored. I did get a reply from Barron's editor Thomas Donlan however, saying he was considering my reply as a letter to the editor next week. Who knows. I guess you have to assume they are part and parcel to the fiat game. Gold's rise would bode ill for their little world also.

JCTexOzzie (06/06/02; 19:53:47MT - msg#: 77661)#7767006/06/02; 20:59:19

He is like the Diehard Rabbit, he just keeps on running, and running, and running and; incredibly, remains sane, sharp, incisive.

Don't know how he does it, but sure am glad he can and does. He makes a big difference to us all.

Black BladeStarting Off Ugly In Asia#7767106/06/02; 21:03:52

The equities markets in Asia are hitting the skids tonight. It looks like a very rough start. The bad news released by Intel after hours and the poor performance on Wall Street today are being carried over into Asian trading. But Gold is shining bright. Gold is picking up some more ground.

- Black Blade

MK - I see that New Jersey, California and Utah are among a growing list of states that are coming up short on tax revenues. I understand that Oregon is revamping their budget and will impliment a 1% increase in income tax. Looks like more pain for the citizen is in store. Cheers!

Black BladeRe: The Hoople#7767206/06/02; 21:07:10

I think that Cheryl Einhorn is leaving Barron's or has already. She wrote her last article a week or so ago.

- Black Blade

WaveriderTownCrier#7767306/06/02; 21:12:41

Randy...thank you. I had to reboot my computer and that fixed it! Thanks again!

sectorOCC Gold Derivatives Report-Q2 2002#7767406/06/02; 21:17:47

Chase up 10.2%, CitiBank Up 43.4%

These big increases in gold derivatives, which GATA has information are probably gold loans, is an indication of systemic stress at the Fed and Treasury.

This week's try at lowering gold has failed and their supply of gold to "Loan" is running very thin. Moreover, CitiBank, who normally maintains discipline quarter to quarter is now all over the place...a sure sign of breakdown.

The derivatives are up because they are trying to cap the market but they are failing. It is this knowledge that helps to drive the long hedge funds and all others who act on truth. The truth is they just don't HAVE the metal to keep loaning and having their acolytes sell their way out of trouble any more.

The enemy is losing...they have been found out. Their exhaustible resource is nearing exhaustion.

The Fed's sheer panic phase has yet to begin but make no mistake, you will know it when you see it. A hint is what Goldman Sachs does on the floor at the final break point.

That break point may just be $335 or $340 bid judging by the Fed's sensitivity.

Sierra MadreSector, may I gently remind you that this is a Forum dedicated to GOLD?#7767506/06/02; 21:23:28

Please do not distract us with your rants invoking monstrous nuclear weapons.

Please avoid M.E. issues here.

Stick to the TOPIC, please!


The HoopleBlack Blade#7767606/06/02; 21:34:10

Einhorn is indeed leaving or being reassigned. I took exception last week to her admiration of Barrick's hedging strategy. I reminded her of Ashanti and that admiration could be premature if gold goes north of $350. Probably a waste of time but they need to hear it.
YGMSenate Takes Aims at Free Internet.........#7767706/06/02; 21:38:10


Senate Takes Aim at Your Free Internet

Wes Vernon,
Friday, June 7, 2002

WASHINGTON – A Senate committee has approved a bill that could erode and perhaps eliminate your free access to the Internet.
Many establishment politicians view this "people's medium" with emotions ranging from wariness to resentment. This upstart outlet reaches the public without the "gatekeeper" filters in the approved, notoriously left-wing media.

Now leftist politicians have found a way to rein in this newcomer and at the same time reward their big campaign donors among the trial lawyers.

'Great Harm'

The Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation (chairman: Sen. Ernest "Fritz" Hollings, D-S.C.) just before the Memorial Day congressional recess approved S. 2201, which a leading industry executive says "will cause great harm to the Internet and electronic commerce." Sponsors would like to slip it quietly through the Senate, preferably while you're not paying attention.

Ed Black, president of Computer and Communications Industry Association, says the measure would subject Internet companies and service providers to sweeping new liability for class-action lawsuits for failing to adhere to the strict requirements of the legislation.

Example: Currently, if you order a book from a Web site and leave your name and address so that the merchandise can be forwarded to you, the site can make note of where you live so that it can gear regional advertising to you. The site must inform you it is doing this, and if you choose not to allow it, you can opt out.

Under S. 2201, such information could not be collected or shared unless you give your express permission, or "opt in."

Because most people don't care that much one way or the other, few will opt out or opt in. The result is that without people expressly opting in, advertising on the Web would take a nosedive. If that happens, many sites would lose a huge source of their revenue. The result: More and more Web sites would have to charge you subscriptions before you could log on.


Golden BearBlack Blade (msg#: 77664)#7767806/06/02; 21:39:23

Thanks for the link BB,

Classic case of "Fractional Reserve Banking", where you deposit your reserves, and what's left is a fraction of what you deposited, getting smaller and smaller by the day!


PS. Congrats on now being officially part of the USAGold crew and an excellent roundup of the financial news, written as they should be.

PizzTomorrow#7767906/06/02; 21:46:37

After the news on Intel after the close, many fund managers/investment managers just may get to put their money where their mouth is.

The S & P futures are still dicounting over a 100 point drop in the dow for tomorrow at the open. All week long I have been hearing that everyone is wating for the "washout" in stocks before they commit money to the new "bull" market that all the "facts and figures" that our beloved government has been massaging over the last 6 months. Catch a falling knife? Lets see if they are willing to catch a falling sword.

I am under the impression that the administration "must" make something happen (war??) before we have the crash that we all expect. With the markets as weak as I think they are right now, the PPT will have it's work cut out for it tomorrow. They cannont afford to go into the weekend down 3 to 4 hundred points.

Asia down, gold firming very well. Tomorrow could be VERY, VERY INTERESTING.

Could be wrong, but gold pushing 340 tomorrow will not surprise me in the least.

Let the games begin.


YGMGerman Marks Resurfacing#7768006/06/02; 21:51:35

Bundesbank upset by mark revival
By Toby Helm
(Filed: 06/06/2002)

The German mark - consigned to history five months ago - is making a startling comeback thanks to the unpopularity of the euro.

In a move that has dismayed the Bundesbank, which is collecting old notes and coins, the mark is being accepted again at a growing number of shops on Germany's northern coast.

Karl-Heinz Haken, manager of a chain of general stores in Leer, said many customers had cut spending in the belief that traders had put up prices during the change to the euro. With his sales down, he decided to try to recoup business by pricing goods in marks as well as euros - and even to offer to accept payment in marks.

"Because of all the discussion about the inflation caused by the euro, we wanted to make this offer to our customers," he said. "It was a huge success. Our turnover rose by 40 per cent."

He and other traders who followed suit are amazed at how may marks people still hold. Some economists think that 15 per cent of mark coins are still in circulation.

A shrimp seller in the port of Greetsiel told Die Welt: "It is so simple. They are spending the old money they find in their summer clothes that have been stuffed away for a year."

A spokesman for the central bank said it was legal for shops to take marks if they wanted to, though it would be against the law to give change in the old currency.

The bank did not like the situation, she said. "We want the euro in people's minds - not the mark."

The bank did not want the ideas to spread in Germany. "The next thing is they'll be saying they need more marks because everyone wants to use them again," she added.

A European Commission survey last week found that 68.5 per cent of people in the 12 euro nations thought the transition to the single currency had pushed up prices.

2 January 2002: 30bn marks held abroad may harm new

1 January 2002: Europe's leap into unknown

WaveriderBlack Blade#7768106/06/02; 22:01:05

Your note regarding exploration caught my attention. Of course at the conference there was an exhibit hall with a fair number of junior exploration companies on show. It seems that the POG has risen enough that they are just getting back into business. Interestingly, some of these companies seem to be financed by the heavily hedged mining companies. My accountant mentioned their revived activity to me also last week, as many are based in Vancouver and use the same firm I do...just an observation. BTW...excellent afternoon update, thank you. Cheers,

kramrichFront month gold to $351 +/- $5 and then retrace?#7768206/06/02; 22:02:39

I was doing some charting homework today looking for the next area where POG might turn down again. I trade gold and silver futures mostly and have noticed a pattern generaly in commodities that seems to hold about 80% of the time for temporary turning points. That point is $351 +/- $5. I give it enough room ie... +/- $5 because as POG approaches the target ($351) , price momentum seems to increase. Sometimes blowing thru the target with a short burst of momentum and then quickly turning down and sometimes encountering selling pressure prior to the target Its strange but its a pattern that repeats itself time and again. Its a simple overhead trend line drawn from the high in Dec. '87 @ 498 thru the high in Feb. '96 @ 416. It goes right overhead today at $351. And seems to be most reliable on the third point on the trend line. All bets are off with the above temporary tuning point however if something major happens like war in the ME or more substantial terrorist bombings in the US etc. No promises though, just food for thought.
The Hooplesector,all#7768306/06/02; 22:09:26

I have watched the explosion of Fannie and Freddie derivatives also. If you overlay a Fannie/Freddie chart to JPM the explosions practically lock step together. Since Fannie and Freddie are exempt from most conventional reporting requirements could this be another smoking gun? I assume interst rate increases would be disastrous to Fannie/Freddie portfolios and gold supression would fit in neatly with preventing this. The question has been who could be counter-party to trillions of mortgage risk? I've never seen it connected but feel it would be the perfect venue to conceal information. Remembering too AG's opposition to further transparency in derivatives back in 1999 was when it really took off. I was wanting to run this by GATA when Bill returns from Vancouver.
YukonKramrich...price chart analysis#7768406/06/02; 22:30:52

Kramrich, thanks for the chart link. I used to dabble in futures trading every now and again and have discovered a few patterns that are VERY reliable. Of the most consistent that I have profited from are what are called the gap and the pennant.

I have been looking at the long term chart for gold since '95 when I first started trading and it was not until I visited the link you posted that I noticed that the entire spike up to ~$850 forms the spine of one huge pennant!!! Also, the symetry evidenced in the link you gave is most impressive with lows and highs mapping out very nicely approx. every 8 years.

Long Term view gathered from chart: If the highs continue to map out at 8-9 year intervals then we should be in the beginning of a run to new highs occuring sometime in late 2003 or early 2004 reaching to at least the all time high of $850/oz. We may see a pull back to near or below $300 with a more pronounced point in the pennant occurring short-term. However, this would still synchronize with the cycling 8 yr highs coming soon!

Short Term: Looking at the August '02 Comex contract, yesterday and today have created a nice gap down. This gap will eventually have to be filled. So expect prices to trend higher with significant resistance continuing at the $330 level.

Your thoughts?

Note: Past performance is not indicative of future least as far as we trade at your own risk with risk capital only (it makes uncle Al have to work harder at evicting you). If gold goes to a new eight year high as predicted, I wonder if we can then do away with such sayings as it would seem that past performance to some degree IS indicative of future results? The power of cycles! Deny them at your own discretion and remember
the lessons of history....and physics!

YGM: Thanks for the link a few days ago to Robert Service's The Spell of the Yukon! Wow, if that poem does not say it all! Actually though, I would feel remiss if I did not inform you that I am a born and bred yankee (though you perhaps wouldn't know it reading the mix of nationalities that make me who I am (with none of them being Canadian)). I derived my handle from a funny little miner that just popped in my head the day I signed up for posting privileges. Can you guess who? HINT: If you have kids, ask them! Anyway, the poem moved me and I wanted to say thank you. Once again, you prove that we are of the same grain (165?)! Have you ever heard of G.K. Chesterton?

Thanks to all for the dedication to this site.

Viva Liberty!


EagleOneThe Hoople#7768506/06/02; 22:53:45

Keep your ear peeled for further word from Enhorn as she may be the perfect contrarian indicator for gold and who knows what else. During the Spring and Summer of 2001 she was down on the long term prospects for POG. Then, Lo! and behold, on the very week when gold bottomed she ripped gold up one side and down the other. It was NEVER coming back. ( My interpretation of the point of the article.) Since that November Barrons article, I don't recall any other columns by her in the Commodities Corner until just a week ago when she wrote of her reassignment to do feature articles.


uponroofsector's 'rants'?#7768606/06/02; 23:17:53

sector has earned the right, IMHO, to 'rant'...especially when it concerns global political stability.

I do not know if the format has changed here, but posting on events which directly affect gold via war or terorism is not, IMHO, off topic.

On top of that....sector is an active member of GATA who has traveled to Washington in the company of Murphy for our collective benefit....confronted those opposed to gold face to face....and works with Reg Howe, the fruit of which includes published reports on their work.

I apologize for my bursting in on this but could not let it go. If the format has changed, I stand corrected.


sector, I hope you are doing well my friend. I am busy converting those at other non gold forums as there is not much sense in repeating to ourselves here the same message over and over. I am sending those who listen this way and to other gold info sites. There is a movement and it is growing.

Folks out in other cyberspace financial forums are coming over to gold. I am being heard with much enthusiasm from those recently stung in the stock market. These are the people who will send gold to 1000 an ounce, not we here.

Cheers all

WaveriderUponroof, so great to hear from you#7768706/06/02; 23:27:04

I was just thinking the other day that we hadn't heard from you for a long time...not even during the price guessing contests. Good to see that you're well and involved in very important work converting the non-converted! Miss your views on Japan...actually all your views...and your humor! There *has* been an influx of new posters recently, it's very good to see. Keep up the great work and please stop by to visit once in awhile. Cheers and blessings to you,

WaveriderIntel Reduces 2nd-Qtr Sales Forecast#7768806/07/02; 00:04:46

"Intel Corp., the world's biggest semiconductor maker, lowered its second- quarter sales forecast on reduced personal-computer chip demand in Europe. The shares fell as much as 13 percent.

``It was worse than people expected,'' said Marian Kessler, who helps manage $25 million at Rutherford Investment Management, which owns Intel shares. ``We're seeing a longer downturn than expected and a slower recovery.''

``It's not going to be very pretty in the morning, not in the tech world,'' said Jim Luke, whose BB&T Asset Management owns Intel shares and manages $10 billion. ``The recovery is going to be slow and labored.''

Waverider: I think Pizz is's going to be a wild day tomorrow. As I heard over and over at the conference - the reality of the economic situation just hasn't hit investors yet - they're still waiting and hoping for the tech sector to turn around so they can recoup their losses. It doesn't look like they'll see reality until they're confronted with it face to face - could be panic/pandemonium tomorrow...may be wrong...we'll see!

kramrichYUKON#776896/7/02; 01:13:40

I agree. I see the huge pennant and $850 is an easily identified target for the bulls and the bears. That is for the bulls to shoot for and the bears to get out of our way until we get there.
Black Blade"Interesting" Market Activity Overnight#776906/7/02; 01:42:15

Wow! Europe is cratering right along with Asia. Equities markets are plunging on Intel's revelations that not all is well in the tech world and capital expenditures never materialized. After hours trading in the US also plunged hard. It looks as if tomorrow could be "interesting" at best. It depends on how this major sell-off carries over into the NY open. Perhaps some special "intervention" will be needed. I suspect that members of The "President's Working Group on Financial Markets" may be getting frantic phone calls early this morning. Richard Quest on CNNfn has been mentioning this unusual down market activity every few minutes. This is definitely something to keep our eyes on as more investors will probably look for "safe havens" come tomorrow.

- Black Blade

skiSilver Lease Rates ...#776916/7/02; 02:29:40

Silver lease rates are up sharply again today.
WaveriderBrown launches new attack on bank secrecy#776926/7/02; 02:35:43

"Britain's finance minister, Gordon Brown, has warned that countries which do not lift banking secrecy in tax matters are facing isolation.

"Those who are not prepared to introduce [the exchange of information] will find themselves being increasingly isolated against the growing consensus of the international community," he warned.

The Swiss finance minister, Kaspar Villiger, has stated repeatedly that banking secrecy is not negotiable and has supported the idea of a withholding tax on interest accrued in accounts held in Swiss banks by EU citizens."

Waverider: Interesting debate and pressures that Switzerland is faced with. I don't see them succumbing to pressure - bank secrecy laws are an inherent and long-standing part of their culture. Besides, the threat of isolation is a joke considering the Swiss thrive on minding their own business. However, *if* the laws were lifted, would Gold have less competition from the CHF as a safe haven alternative to the ailing US dollar? Thoughts...from any of our Swiss/European posters?

Black BladeBreaking News - American Hostage Killed#776936/7/02; 03:22:15

Filipino troops attempted a rescue of American hostages held by Abu Sayaf terrorists. It did not go well. One dead and another wounded. A few months earlier the terrorists beheaded ago one American. No other news yet.

- Black Blade

Black BladeMarket Index Futures Diving Hard#776946/7/02; 03:39:28

Markets are cratering around the world tonight and the US market index futures are trashed (see link). Not often we see futures this ugly. Unless there is a miracle (or government and institutional intervention) it will be a slaughter at the open on Wall Street. It should be an "Interesting" day.

- Black Blade

Oh teah, the unemployment report for May is reported to be ugly too (to be released this morning).

Black BladeDJ Futures Pegged at Minus -100#776956/7/02; 03:55:12

Dow Futures have been pegged at -100 for quite a while now.Rarely if ever see a triple digit lock down on the DJ index futures. Gonna get ugly today.

- Black Blade

Canuck@ BB#776966/7/02; 04:25:24

Looks grizzly for the markets today. There was an article recently where the author speculated that if the Sept. 2001 lows were broken all hell would break loose. I believe the Nasdaq is getting close and I see the S&P might crack 1000.

Do you (or anyone else) recall last fall's lows?

Canuck@ Waverider#776976/7/02; 04:40:09

Have you caught NT in the last few days? It is getting slaughtered, what's going on? I believe the close yesterday was $2.22 (CDN).

An old telco buddy had about 10,000 shares of NT which were locked up in a divorce settlement. He had pleaded with her to dump them after the fall off from 120 to 100. I wonder how their relationship is doing now.

Black BladeSlaughter On Wall Street!!!#776986/7/02; 05:54:21

If there is no intervention, we will see a slaughter on Wall Street. Pedestrians may need to keep an eye skyward as they walk down past "brokers row". A quick side step may be needed to avoid the swan diving investment managers. The USD could come under a bit of pressure today, however, the markets around the globe are getting taken to the woodshed today. Asia and Europe got slaughtered and NY opens soon.

- Black Blade

Cavan Mansector 77667#776996/7/02; 06:11:39

Hey sector: KEEP IT COMING! What I like most about this particular post is that YOU ARE EXACTLY RIGHT (unfortunately).

OFF TOPIC: I completely changed my stance and swing yesterday and though I felt very incomfortable on the back nine, at one point I crushed a three wood from the fairway about 245. Awesome! Back to the range (and topic).....CM

Cavan Mansector#777006/7/02; 06:12:50

That's "uncomfortable". Sorry.
PizzCanuck#777016/7/02; 06:23:55

September Lows (intraday)

Dow - 8062
S&P 944
Nasdaq 1387


PizzBB's Bonepile#777026/7/02; 07:02:09

Since we have a wide following accross the US, is there anyone living in any area of the country that has rising employment?

I'm just trying to figure out where all the layed off people over the last year are going to work.

The Pacific NW sure isn't the place, we're in our worst recession since 80 - 81 with no let up in sight.

The unemployment numbers don't make sense - and I think the public is starting to smell fish.


JoanneSector (aka - the ghost in the machine)#777036/7/02; 07:22:09

If you quit writing here, I quit reading here. No one reads "between the lines" better than you.
TruthcasterRed Ink On Wallstreet#777046/7/02; 07:26:59

It's looks to be a bad day for stocks.
I will add that wall street gurus may beat the
unemployment numbers to try to get a pop out of the dow.
Gosh will they try anything to try to save the sinking
ship. Don't be surprised if they can squeak out a gain
at the closing bell. Never underestimate the fed's

The HooplePuts and more puts#777056/7/02; 07:27:06

When you watch yet another tech meltdown today remember how many of those eompanies sold puts on their stock to generate "free" revenue . Derivative nightmares are lurking everywhere, not just at the cabal houses. Cascading defaults as Gary North used to be fond of saying. Another unspoken problem of this downturn is stock options going worthless, further reducing purchasing power of already tapped out consumers. Will employees refuse options and demand cash in the future? Bet on it. The fraud of the 90's miracle is getting revealed day by gut churning day.
YGMSECTOR........#777066/7/02; 07:54:37

uponroof (06/06/02; 23:17:53MT - msg#: 77686)

Hey man...I also agree with upon roof totaly...You are one of the best here (even tho there are many)...You have earned a right to rant as we all do from time to time...
Please stay!......YGM.


RobotGuyDOW#777076/7/02; 07:58:43

Well, if she's gonna tank, she's got a good early start! Gold minig stocks didn't drop as much as I expected they would in our recent POG dip, this is a very positive thing for future POG support. People seem to be less frantic around the precious yellow.


YGMYukon.....ALL.....Friend Sierra....#777086/7/02; 08:03:47

Have you ever heard of G.K. Chesterton?

Morning.....No, but I'll run it thru Google.....

BTW.....ALL!!!.....Some of the best links to info one can find on web are found by various 'phrases' put in search engine.....Easiest way to come up with papers/editorials noone has yet seen here.....

Sierra...c'mon lighten up can't you? ME stuff does have a definate impact on POG and I'm sure that's why we all post that kind of info...we took along time to build the great group of posters here and we can't afford to offend...OK?
Peace Amigo!...ygm

YGMChristian.....#777096/7/02; 08:06:23

While I'm at it........

Trying to catch up before work!...How about giving us more of your thoughts (more often) if you have time...YGM has read every post of yours for years and I do like to hear from you....YGM
RobotGuyIs it possible the FED would sell gold to support wall street?#777106/7/02; 08:32:00

CoBra(too)The Gold Wars - by Ferdinand Lips#777116/7/02; 09:18:26

A brief review:

Gold Wars deals with gold's history, the gold rushes and the abandonment of gold-as-money under the modern welfare/warfare state. It shows how governments, fearing the affinity of free people for gold, fight it, thereby helping to destroy whole countries along with the gold mining industry. The book highlights the betrayal of gold-rich Switzerland. The author condemns gold "hedging," gold market manipulation by governments and bullion banks, fiat money and debt. He concludes that only a gold standard can return an ailing world economy to its full potential, reduce unemployment, help restore law and order, and help to secure peace and freedom for mankind. ...

Not much to add to that - except to say thank you to BB and his alias Jon W. for his outstanding work and dedication to education ... Thank you, Sir for all you do - cb2

Cavan Man@ CB(too)#777126/7/02; 09:31:27

Waiting on the book from a Azon. Look forward to reading it!
nickel62PIZZ ancedotal employment survey!#777136/7/02; 09:33:50

Pizz the employment in Wasington, DC and Philadelphia's rich northern corporate suburbs appears to be continuing to hold up. I guess that there are large descrepancies in the effects that the bone pile has on the different parts of the US. These are the geographic areas of strength I have noticed in the Mid Atlantic region that I frequent. It is related to safe government and drug company jobs I think and a continuing boom in real estate sales, construction, and the related furnishings.
TruthcasterMarkets bouncing back some#777146/7/02; 10:17:20

I see where gold just went under water with the
dollar coming back a little and gold stocks falling off
Hmm.. Such bad news with intc, and tyco and so on. But
lets face it. It's a friday and the FED's want to see
green in the stock market before the weekend. So I
think it is one of those days where their painting the tape before the weekend. I still think that the dow will
end close to being up at the end of the day. I was hoping
that gold would end bullish for the week. Gosh how about
the selling pressure at the 330 mark. It's like how much
gold to the Swiss have to sell any ways! Well have fun...

da2gnickel62: employment#777156/7/02; 10:19:24

I wonder how much of the employment in this region is directly or indirectly related to government spending and/or spending related to compliance to government edict? One of the few strong growth areas in the economy at present, IMHO.
JCTexfrom Yahoo#777166/7/02; 10:31:46

GLOBAL MARKETS-War fears, Intel slam markets; bonds, gold up (Reuters)
Friday June 7, 04:21 PM
NEW YORK, June 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks led a big slide in equities worldwide and the dollar fell early on, sending investors rushing to the safety of bonds and gold, after Intel Corp.'s lowered revenue outlook slammed a market already hurt by corporate scandals and war fears.

The only reason for posting this is that I simply cannot believe they have actually used the G-word. Good Heavens, the sky is falling!!

JimboSo why the gold sell-off?#777176/7/02; 10:44:15

JCTex, if investors are "rushing to the safety of bonds and gold," as the Reuters story states, then why are all the gold stocks experiencing a big sell-off today? Can anyone explain?
JCTexJimbo (6/7/02; 10:44:15MT - msg#: 77717)#777186/7/02; 11:21:07

I think you call that "paper pricing." As long as paper prices physical, we are going to have this make-believe price of gold.

My opinion is that FOA was right. Paper price and physical price will eventually part company. IMHO, when that happens, we will see the price of real gold go ballistic, the dollar will go in the toilet, and all-hell will break loose.

Sierra MadreYGM...just how am I supposed to lighten up?#777196/7/02; 11:34:30

I was banished (temporarily) from this Forum for expressing opinions related to US policy vis-a-vis the Middle East and specifically, Israel. I was asked to stick to the TOPIC.
Fine, I agreed completely. But, let others do the same.

Indeed, war has a profound effect on the price of gold.

If we talk of war, then let us talk of it objectively, as if we were already dead and gone, let us say. Let us talk about it without judging who is right and who is wrong. You can observe this kind of consideration of a war, in the present case of India vs. Pakistan. It is of very little concern to us, who is right and who is wrong. We don't even think about that.

Now, if we think of the situation in the Middle East, all objectivity is cast to the winds. "Al Qaeda" is considered as just "fanatics". The terms used to refer to this group, are without exception derogatory. The fact is, a great many people, and some excellent posters at this site, become totally emotional once the Middle East is concerned.

For my part, I am not really interested in the fate of Israel or of the Palestinians. Unfortunately, most Americans do not seem to be able to reason objectively when it comes to the Middle East.

Nor are very many able to understand that "terrorism" is just another name for warfare. That "terrorists" are fighting their war the only way they can. That if you want to put an end to that war, you better talk to the enemy and find out what's bothering him, what he wants.

But no, this enemy is to be "nuked" out of existence! We are not to discuss the motives of the "terrorists", because we might find out unpleasant things about ourselves (the U.S.)
I strenously object to posts that advocate nuclear war against "terrorists" or "terrorism".

Since emotion cannot be avoided in talking about the MIddle East, that is why I say: stick to the TOPIC.

If I displease, I am quite willing to remain silent.


sector9/11 Long-Term Effects Like "Sand in the [Economic] Wheels"...OECD#777206/7/02; 11:42:47

THE INCREASE in insurance-risk premiums, reduction in insurance coverage, higher transportation costs, disruptions to international trade and the diversion of capital to defense and security spending away from more-profitable investments could amount to a heavier and more prolonged burden on global growth than realized, according to the report, which was released Thursday.

These effects are "more diffuse, so they tend not to feature so prominently in people's perceptions," said Vincent Koen, an OECD economist and one of the report's authors. "But they could be felt like sand in the wheels" of the economy.
Geopolitical conflicts effect monetary stability. Gold's value is thus, related to those conflicts.

Today's HUI pullback is actually very healthy in so far as it offers a fresh entry point for strong hands who have been waiting with patience for about a month for just such an opportunity. Meethinks HUI will move up at the close.
POG has held up well under all the outright official sales [Through "Loans" to counter parties] of even more Treasury bullion.

sector"Correction"#777216/7/02; 11:47:00

HUI may move in an upwards direction at the close if not to the green status.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio#777226/7/02; 11:53:21

Swiss Gold Francs

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call Centennial for Arrangements

TownCrierHEADLINE: War fears, Intel slam markets; bonds, gold up#777236/7/02; 12:18:35

Thanks to JCTex who posted the opening line to this Reuters article a short while ago. Here is an additional glimpse of the text and the link to the full article (above).



...losses pushed key U.S. market gauges such as the tech- laden Nasdaq Composite and the broad Standard & Poor's 500 to lows unseen since the weeks immediately following the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States.

"We're starting to get a little bit of hysteria in the market, but it's not a complete panic yet," said a trader of S&P 500 futures on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, who asked not to be named. Still, he said, "we still have room to go on the downside."

...In currency markets, the dollar weakened against euro early on, but later recovered. Safe-haven interest in gold was reignited late this week by the military standoff between India and Pakistan over disputed Kashmir and Israel's storming of Palestinian President Yasser Arafat's headquarters Thursday.

-------(see URL above)-------

"Hysteria". Doesn't it seem that it is precisely at times like these that the government would step in to lend a little support to the stock markets so that people will enter the weekends less heavy-hearted and more inclined to go shopping? Be sceptical of the merits of any sudden recoveries in stocks.


kramrichJimbo re... "why the gold selloff?"#777246/7/02; 12:39:47

Silver was unable to fill a gap in the July contract starting at 506.50. If there was enough demand for the PM market this morning, Silver should have easily blown thru this point. When it did not, it showed weakness and it was sold. At least thats why I sold some of my positions and bought them back at lower prices.
Black BladeWall Street banks' gold derivatives in danger zone#777256/7/02; 12:40:06

Hedge edge may spark mad scramble


"I see $340 and $360 an ounce as the danger zone for banks, that is where hedging and the hedge book problems start to have an impact," said Ian McAvity, editor of Toronto newsletter Deliberations on World Markets and a director of gold and silver closed-end fund Central Fund of Canada (CEF: news, chart, profile). "I expect to see a $25 up day for gold one day, largely due to someone getting skewered by their hedge book, either the bank that extended it or the mining company." A rapidly rising gold price is the worst enemy of hedged miners and the banks that designed their derivative strategies. A powerful gold rally could force some miners, or the banks behind the hedge books, to engage in a mad scramble to locate gold and deliver it to the original lenders.

Black Blade: We may yet see the higher POG hit the major players in the hedging game. There is a lot of resistance to a POG above $330 an ounce.

Graefinooooo...Jimmy Buffet to speak...#777266/7/02; 13:01:23

...or was it Warren Buffet? It was Warren...on CNBC during closing bell. Wonder what he'll say about silver!

JimboThe "other snippit"#777276/7/02; 13:14:17

Black Blade, I think the more interesting snippit from Thom Callandra's article was this quote:

"A rapidly rising gold price is the worst enemy of hedged miners and the banks that designed their derivative strategies. A powerful gold rally could force some miners, or the banks behind the hedge books, to engage in a mad scramble to locate gold and deliver it to the original lenders.

"McAvity points to the largest investment banks, among them JP Morgan Chase (JPM: news, chart, profile), as facing the most risk from the continuing gold rally. Gold's spot price is up about 20 percent since Jan. 2. Figures from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency show JP Morgan Chase having the largest exposure to gold derivatives among U.S. banks and trusts, as of Dec. 31."

Pardon my naivete, but do the hedged miners and banks have such control over gold's price and the buying/selling of gold that they can keep a lid on things indefinitely? Or at some point are they going to lose control of this process?

RockDow Recovers after drastic start#777286/7/02; 13:41:26

Did I hear someone say Plunge Protection Team (PPT)? After negative triple digits in opening futures it almost looked like the day of reckoning was about to happen, becausw we know its coming.

Thanks Goldquet for thst excellent info on msg # 77610, that was some good stuff Sir.

Loud mouth Cramer last night at the end of his new show on CNBC with Kadlow said, "I don't like gold." I told my wife I can't stand those two Wall Street trolls, she says then why do I watch them? I replied, because you have to know how your enemy thinks.

Keep those comments coming in everyone, reading them really is one of the highlights of my day.

Boy that bone pile is really piling up isn't it? Its smelling up the market pretty bad. All we need now is some other major event to destablize the remaining value and finanical infa-structure that is already under major damage control.

The Gangsters on Wall Street can only deceive and cheat and minipulate the system so long until the system no matter how big it is can no longer give back returns. This market has been minipulated from so many sectors by so many greedy individuals that this giant has taken a knee because all the pressure is just too much. And with a realistate bubble ready to pop and a weak and failing dollar, our huge trade deficits and national debt this economy is ready to go bust.

Looks to me that the well is about to run dry and its pay up time. Those with the vision will not suffer any or much loss and those with a vision such as it was in the times of the Bible, it was those who were the prudent ones who acted and prepared and were spared defeat and loss. (Noah's Ark for example).

Theres only a certain window of opportunity to get in on something big that could one day even save your worth and help you survive in a situation that without gold you wouldn't have been able to do it.

As BB has often says, get a few extra months of cash on hand, begin a food storage program and protect your assets and portfolo with gold and silver insurance.

Most people look at gold as an investment others look at it as insurance. I look at mine as insurance but when it breaks $20,000 an ounce I'll reclassify its status.
Have a great weekend,

mikalDollar close on NY Forex#7772906/07/02; 13:52:33

The US dollar index closed up, on an options expiration Friday, just above $111. Compared to past such closes, the move was feeble, though determined. Support for the dollar, from the US ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund) and the unofficial PPT (President's Working Group on Farcical Markets- "Plunge Protection Team"), requires stock and currency market intervention, assisted by gold, silver, and commodity price management. Though the US $ edged up slightly, managing the buck appears less and less effective.
Black BladeArgentine poor eat rats, toads: mayor #7773006/07/02; 14:24:52,2276,47581,00.html?


(BUENOS AIRES) Argentina's worst economic crisis ever has hit the nation's poor so hard that some have resorted to eating toads, rats and horse meat, the mayor of a poor Buenos Aires suburb said yesterday. Many slum dwellers in the suburb of Quilmes survive only because they eat such animals, according to mayor Fernando Gerones, who said some malnourished children in the poor neighbourhood only live on food they are given at school. 'In many cases, school food is the only meal these children get,' Mr Gerones said in a statement highlighting poverty in the suburb.

Black Blade: As always, get out of debt, stash enough cash for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program. Don't be an Argentine.

Black BladeBrazil central bank under fire amid rocky markets #7773106/07/02; 14:37:21§ion=news&news_id=reu-n06325113&date=20020606&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw


As Brazil's currency, the real, weakened to its lowest point in seven months, stocks fell and bond prices plunged, the bank said it would auction off short-term treasury notes in hopes of easing some of the pressure on markets. Economists and pundits faulted a Central Bank usually known for savvy financial operators for stirring an already turbulent market by enacting a rule that forces investment funds to mark the value of their assets according to daily market prices.

Because most of Brazil's local debt is tied to currency fluctuations or re-prices daily with floating interest rates, when markets get nervous its debt becomes more expensive and harder to roll over. This week, the government tried to force banks to buy its treasury notes by offering banks poor returns on inter-bank loans, leaving extra liquidity in the market. But banks refused to buy the notes and opted to buy dollars instead, further fueling instability and making the rollover more expensive.

Constantin Jancso, an economist at MCM Consultants, said in a report the bank's recent policy of buying up longer-term treasury notes in exchange for short-term notes was aimed at easing turbulence. But at the same time it was worsening the country's debt profile considerably and undercutting its past policy of extending the length of its maturities.

Black Blade: The rumor is that Brazil may default on debt. Brazil could be the next Argentina. Tough call, venezuela and Colombia are not in very good shape either.

kramrichStill buying dollars abroad. #7773206/07/02; 14:50:27

In Black Blades snippit below you can see these countries are still buying dollars. Lesser of two evils. Amazing how they think they are safe but they are going from the frying pan into the fire. Or I guess I should say from the fire into the frying pan because they are a little safer in dollars than their own currency or bonds. But they should be going into gold! Someday they will wake up.
Sierra MadreSome consternation because gold stocks are hammered#7773306/07/02; 15:17:26

I don't follow gold stocks, but I picked up today at a neighboring forum, some expressions of surprise and worry that gold stocks are going down.

Could it be that "the Cabal" does not only consider gold as its enemy, but also gold stocks, which make the rest of the Stock Market look so bad?

The gold stock market is rather puny in size, is it not?

Might it not be also subject to attack, to depress prices and make it look risky?

I prefer the physical metal, myself. May go down but can't be killed. And will eventually rise in any case.


HipplebeckHave you ever wanted to buy your own mine?#7773406/07/02; 15:24:04

Well, here is your chance. A gold mine is up for sale in Montana for 1.25 million dollars.
Click on the website to see more details

sectorPeggy Noonan [Wall Street Journal Columnist] Rants About Security#7773506/07/02; 15:29:39

She cites such "absurdities" as our reluctance to employ ethnic profiling - our idiot refusal to give added scrutiny to "Arab and Muslim males 18 to 40 years old as they attempt to enter America, board planes, rent charter planes and ask for maps to the nearest nuclear power plant."

"How absurd and clueless do you have to be to be having this debate?" she asks. "You have to have surrendered all common sense."
Americans have to face some very unpleasant facts, Noonan warns.

* Something worse than 9-11 is bound to happen.
* New York and Washington are certain targets. "[We're a top target, and the madmen who mean to harm us won't be happy until the skyscrapers are cinders."
* Think the unthinkable. "There is nothing the madmen would rather do than take out or disable two of the biggest, most central entities that unite us in America, the seat of our financial institutions and power and the seat of our government."
* Expect the worst. Imagine: On the same day, New York and Washington are, say, dirty-nuked. This will cause chaos, pain and horror of almost unimaginable proportions. And yet we must imagine.
It seems that others are thinking [And writing] the unthinkable too...

It is actually possible to obtain personal monetary stability ans security ...just convert some paper into heavy metal.

Houston(No Subject)#7773606/07/02; 15:30:50

Here we look and watch and look and watch at the many economic and financial negatives around the globe (Argentina, Japan, ME, et al) and domestically (current account deficit, credit, debt, equities and real estate) bubbles ready to blow at any time. Has anyone written a computer program theoretically predicting when these forces will merge and become a critical mass? I realize there are so many variables that it may be impossible but, hey they have programs for almost every other type of event you can imagine.

Does anyone recall Rush Limbaugh EVER addressing the ISsues of gold, fiat money and the anticipated train wreck with the various bubbles mentioned above? At least one of his sponsors promotes gold ownership but I have never heard him speak of it at any time. Almost like gold is a taboo word on the radio.

Comments anyone?

misetichIncluding option costs reduces earnings#7773706/07/02; 15:31:55

``The American shareholder has paid a big price'' for corporate option programs, said John C. Bogle, founder of mutual fund company Vanguard Group and president of Bogle Financial Markets Research Center. ``The idea that stock options shouldn't be expensed is so absurd it takes your breath away.''


The S&P 500 sells for 23 times 2001 earnings, according to Thomson First Call profit data used by Reinhard. The valuation increases to 26 when options costs are included, he said
Options costs alone could lower core earnings by 10 percent, according to Standard & Poor's.

The hit to earnings could worsen an already dwindling profit outlook. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call have trimmed their 2002 S&P 500 earnings-growth forecast to 14.7 percent from 16.5 percent as of April 1, as the economy's rebound slows.


Misetich comments:
Lower returns for investors abroad doesn't bode well for the US $

Got gold?

HipplebeckI'm a central banker,#7773806/07/02; 15:32:35

I am responsible for the reserves of my country and I can't decide what to do;
Should I buy more and more dollars to keep up the value of the ones I have, or should I sell them all and take the beating?
I already look like an idiot owing to the fact that I just recently sold a bunch of gold reserves that appreciated in value after I sold.
Can I trust those Americans to hold the line on inflation?
Am I going to be sitting here on a big pile of worthless paper?

HipplebeckWhen the storm is over#7773906/07/02; 15:41:19

and we look into who got what, don't be surprised to see that Americans don't own America anymore. It was all sold off at pennies on the dollar just before the great hyperinflation. All those bundled securities that were packaged so neatly from mortgages and refis by the GSEs and sold to save the American dream are now in the hands of people all over the world. Through these complex derivatives, sold and resold, your home could be ownewd right now by some Saudi prince.
PizzSierra - On gold stocks#7774006/07/02; 15:44:02

I follow stocks, gold stocks, gold, etc. and have for years.

I see nothing more than a normal profit taking correction in the gold stocks, and really, I'm surprised gold is holding up as well as it is (even though I thought we might get a bit of a panic spike today).

The gold stocks normally lead the metal, and most of the stocks have retreated to the lower end of their current uptrend. Gold may follow, as long as the news doesn't get worse, and a move down to 305 - 310 would be technically healthy.

Nothing is straight up without corrections, and I feel that there are a lot of weak gold stock holders that have bought in the last 3 months or so that are trying to recoup losses from tech, dot com, etc. Most of these people bought as of late, and have been burned so badly that they start to panic on pullbacks. They'll never make much money trading paper (other than luck) simply because they can't control their emotions.

Same will happen when gold and silver start to run, most will sell out way too early on pullbacks, buy back in close to the top of the next move, etc and get the living heck whipsawed out of them in fast markets. It's a natural tendency that the pro's and big money take full advantage.

If any of these people had any sense, they'd follow Aristotle's advice and just buy the physical, shut off the news, sip a glass of good wine, and relax.


AristotleHipplebeck, I'm a central banker, too.#7774106/07/02; 15:48:46

Sometimes... sometimes... you just gotta hang on for the ride!

Can you see how it is?

Do you think for a minute that the Old Lady (BoE) didn't already know where the price of Gold was heading -- perhaps much higher and fast enough to scare you out of your jammies?

Maybe... just maybe... depending on where you sit and how you see things, 400 tonnes is a small price to pay for a form of superglue to hold the financial system together. I'll bet more "glue" will be called for before the overstressed quaking subsides into a state of dynamic equilibrium.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

AristotlePizz, I'm doin it!#7774206/07/02; 15:51:25

Sipping wine with my feet up!

Gold. Got me some. --- Aristotle

misetichTerrorism tax and costs#7774306/07/02; 16:07:05

While this evidence is hardly the definitive verdict on the so-called terrorism tax, it is in broad conformity with the initial conclusions I outlined last fall. Yet it is by no means an exhaustive assessment of the new frictions evident in the world economy post-September 11. Heightened geopolitical instability has also been an obvious and important by-product of the escalation of terrorism. That's true in the Middle East and, more recently, with respect to the ominous tensions between India and Pakistan. Those hotspots, in conjunction with continued warnings of another attack in the United States -- underscored in President Bush's June 6 address to the nation on matters of homeland security -- create an aura of heightened global uncertainty and fear. Against that backdrop, multi-national corporations could start to tilt inward -- less willing to commit to far-flung global supply chains and more intent on establishing secure contingency backups at home. All this is another way of saying that the risk premium on offshore outsourcing has just gone up.

Misetich's comments:

Insurance costs, shipping costs, cross-border costs are headed higher- hitting corporate earnings, thus lower stock values -

Foreign investors is there a better alternative than the US ?

Got gold?

YGMSierra...#7774406/07/02; 16:12:45

Thanks ...

..for setting the record staight...I had no idea you had been down that road...Now I remember your comment to me re: Lonely in the Hinterland and understand...I'll be minding more of my own biz from now on...Hate to see anyone among the posters now here leave tho, that's all...Hopefully more will join the ranks and share thoughts & info finds..
HipplebeckAristotle#7774506/07/02; 16:15:08

As for England,I think the BOE sabotaged their own financial house in order to get parity with the rest of Europe,
but over all, I do believe that the banksters are making the ultimate gamble and counting on convincing the human race that gold really is a barbarous relic. If they succeed, we are all enslaved for life. If they fail we have many years in the dark putting back the pieces of civilization.
Gold can't be a part of the great new world order unless it is completely under the control of the boys in charge. They don't want free markets any more than the feudal lords did.

AristotleHipplebeck, my own outlook isn't as bleak as yours appears to be#7774606/07/02; 16:39:46

Can you help breathe some warm moist air into my pathetic little fledgling stormclouds by explaining your phrase:

"If they succeed, we are all enslaved for life."

What does that mean? How does it come about? Methinks you are distilling lemonade back into lemons.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

ZhishengHOUSTON: Limbaugh on Gold#7774706/07/02; 16:47:18

Why has Russ Limbaugh not mentioned gold?

He is part of the Establishment, its conservative wing, and obviously enjoys rubbing shoulders with the high and mighty. No part of the Establishment wants gold taken seriously by the public.

Furthermore, Limbaugh's following consists mostly of the conservative part of the economic middle class, and that part is seriously invested in stocks. It is still in the denial stage with respect to the great Equities Bubble, and Limbaugh, who has a great talent for knowing how his public feels, knows instinctively that he would lose their regard if he spoke about something which would cause them to face what they stubbornly do not want to face.

koala bearThe unspeakable #7774906/07/02; 17:02:12

A big thanks to Barnacle Bill and Golden Bear and CoBra(too) for responding to my question about the book, ‘Gold Wars’. I will order a copy from amazon.bomb.
JCTex and others have pointed out the recent use by the media of the ‘G’ word. As a fellow gold enthusiast I am pleased to see the exposure, but I wonder if any will be so bold as to use the ‘D’ word. What is the ‘D’ word you say? Well it rhymes with recession but its much much worse. [Depression dummy] Using the politically-incorrect ‘D’ word is only ok if it is used in a *historical* context. It must never be used in a projection or forecast, never. Mustn't spook the hoards with disturbing facts.
Anyway a big thanks to all the contributors at this forum and to MK & USAGold for hosting this great source of free info.

misetichPaper mache facade#7775006/07/02; 17:05:01

Pimco's Bill Gross -
"In sum, the secular evidence falls significantly in the reflationary camp symbolized in our cartoon by Luke Skywalker. China and Darth Vader's deflation are formidable foes, but movie goers and global citizens love to see the good guy win and so it should be this time, at least for the next 3-5 years. While the global recovery will be anemic by historical standards, a recovery it will be, and that will at least buy the financial system some more time. Still, there will be negative consequences over the same period from this superficially successful reflationary Episode II. Although inflation itself should be contained at 3%-4% levels, new bubbles, particularly in housing, are a distinct possibility. Lengthy periods of low, short-term interest rates are an inducement to lever and take risk that may or may not bear fruit. We and others see potential bubble risk in housing prices, and the growing dominance of the GSE's. We see risk in the increasing use of hedge funds to stretch returns in what is really only a 6%-7% asset return environment. We see the risk of a U.S. current account deficit "unwind" from near historic levels, which may be precipitated by a more than gradual decline in the dollar. This reflationary world of Luke Skywalker is by no means a safe and secure one economically, to say nothing of the increasing risk to life itself. It has morphed through the years from an economy primarily based on production, to one substantially reliant on growth via debt and new derivative life forms. We now live in an age of paper, and this paper maché facade is not a permanent nor lasting one.

Misetich's comments

Can anyone explain the last line "We now live in an age of paper, and this paper maché facade is not a permanent nor lasting one."?

Got gold?

USAGOLDShort & Sweet. . . .#7775106/07/02; 17:16:34

Sir Rock. . . .

Have you ever thought about how much time the financial mainstream press consumes telling us all how much they don't like gold? If it were as meaningless to the individual portfolio as they purvey, why consume so much precious time laboring to keep investors away from it? If Mr. Kramer were totally honest, he would have more accurately described his feelings by saying that he "feared gold" -- because only the fear of gold would justify the level of energy committede regularly to its public crucifixion. Underneath it all, he knows at least intuitively, if not intellectually, why people buy gold. I've never been able to completely grasp why the Kramer's of the world fear it so. . . . After all none of us on this side of the fence suggest more than a prudent diversification into yellow metal. Why all the fuss? Just yesterday, I heard for the upteenth time from a private investor how her stock broker nearly had a "bird" when she said to sell off some of her portfolio to buy gold. . . . .For the Kramers of the world it's a 100% in paper or you're a fool -- precisely the opposite of legitimate portfolio theory. Then again. . . who's the fool in reality?? Only those of us who buy the self-serving propaganda.

OzzieCoulda sworn....#7775206/07/02; 17:34:06

....something was up today. My problem. Sorry if I alarmed anyone. Silly me.
MexicanThis week garage sale results:#7775306/07/02; 17:46:22

DJIA: -3.4%
NASDAQ: -5.0%
S&P 500: -3.7% still looks like death.


OzziePhilharmonics......#7775406/07/02; 18:24:08 none....gonna get some....welcome da party pal!
MexicanUS April consumer credit shows $8.8 billion rise:#7775506/07/02; 18:27:30


WASHINGTON, June 7 (Reuters) - U.S. consumers pulled out their credit and charge cards in April, as the amount of consumer debt outstanding posted its biggest monthly gain since late last year, according to a report released on Friday.

The Federal Reserve said credit advanced by $8.8 billion to a seasonally adjusted $1.698 trillion in April. That followed an upwardly revised $6.8 billion increase in March; the March number had been previously reported as a $4.6 billion gain.

April's larger-than-expected gain in debt showed consumers remained relatively confident about the direction of the U.S. economy as it slowly recovers from last year's recession. Wall Street analysts had expected credit to have posted a smaller $7.0 billion gain in the month.

MX: This is a dead-end street.

OzzieLast Post......SERIOUSLY!....#7775606/07/02; 18:37:57

....asked the wife when the game was coming on.....9:00 o'clock??...ona fwiggin Friday???....sorry once again....never got excited about the xau.....but...GE strikes again....Kingdom of Jerks!
TownCrierCavallo in a tough job: win some, lose some#7775706/07/02; 19:21:51

I believe you will find some important food for thought in the excerpts that follow:
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, June 7 (Reuters) - Argentine former economy chief Domingo Cavallo ... walked free from prison after arms smuggling charges were dropped on Friday... after a court found "no evidence" he was guilty...

...His arrest added to investor concern that financiers were being made into scapegoats for a crisis that a succession of five presidents since December have been unable to resolve. Four years of painful recession have sparked massive street protests.

...supporters say he is the victim of a witch hunt.

Reviled for a hated freeze on bank withdrawals which is still strangling the economy, plus tax increases and policies that saw joblessness rocket and poverty deepen, Cavallo was public enemy No. 1 when he was imprisoned. He is still despised.

"I think he's probably innocent of those charges but he's guilty of robbing the Argentine people. He should stay in jail for life," said Miguel Lopez, 60, echoing the widespread hatred Argentines now have of politicians of any hue.

Cavallo was once feted as the architect of Argentina's one-to-one peg to the U.S. dollar that heralded economic growth and the end of hyperinflation in the 1990s.

But more recently he was unable to end the grinding recession. In January, the peg to the dollar was ditched and the peso was devalued. It is now worth about 28 U.S. cents.

--------(click URL to access full text)-------

At the time, the peso-dollar peg was a good prescription for the hyperinflation that ailed Argentina -- AT THAT TIME (a decade ago). The problem was their monetary architecture was not designed to take that pill long-term; yet that's what they did, leading to the grinding recession that finally resulted in bloody riots and restrictive controls on money and banking activities.

My friends, I urge you each to extrapolate on this model. Considered to resolution, it will lead you to hold gold in the right capacity.


sectorConfidence in Washington#7775806/07/02; 19:55:28

Is it heading for an even bigger fall?

Maybe so.

It seems that some folks in the White House were taking Cipro BEFORE the first anthrax case was reported.

Larry Klayman of Judicial Watch has filed litigation today to extract documents that will tell all. The WH is foot-dragging on his anthrax FOIA requests.

One's imagination can run wild with this one.

Let's see...

* A rogue scientist at USAMRID [Bad Military guy with pimples] gets mad at the US lack of smallpox preparedness and decides to blackmail the WH with hand scribbled post card threats demanding more vaccine. Eventually [Months and many bodies later] more vaccine is "Found". Tens of Millions of doses...just laying around in a freezer [Probably next to the original FDA test package of Ball-Park franks].

Michael Creighton blows this one off his Hollywood movie story-board because it just isn't believable.

* The guys and gals at the White House were transported through a Star Trek worm-hole to the Gamma Quadrant where the were forced to inhale Cipro dust by the Dominion Forces so as to keep them invisible while their ships were cloaked. Nahhhhh....Too corny.

* The White House folks thought Cipro was Viagra.

This spin has possibility.

It just keeps getting better and better guys and girls! Pretty soon John Ashcroft will get boooed in Peoria. Save THAT tape!

If top officials were secretly acting to preserve their own medical safety regarding anthrax while not informing US citizens of the threat, it will be a hammer blow to Washington credibility. Add this to the growing stench of Wall Street, the lies of the Federal Reserve anf other "Regulators" and we have a widening latrine of moral corruption and a plummeting US confidence.

It might just be enough to drive folks to take some real financial self-preservation measures.

sector1999 Customs Corruption...Tons of Dope...Senators Involved...Did I Just Say It Keeps Getting Better?#7775906/07/02; 20:22:51

AND a Terrorist Threat Too!

This threat involved the potential for terrorists to use pressurized rail tanker cars as instruments of destruction. While running a counter-narcotics smuggling operation in Southern California, I found that narco traffickers were using rail tanker cars to import tons of illegal narcotics into the country via these rail cars.

These suspicions were confirmed when I seized 8,000 pounds of marijuana and 34 kilos of cocaine in one of these cars. As a result of this high-level, multi-taskforce investigation, we were shocked at the ease with which the narco traffickers accomplished not only the smuggling of these narcotics into the U.S., but also the delivery to their destinations in the U.S. via these rail cars. With phony I.D. and cash, the deliveries were easily made over the internet or via telephone with the railroads’ customer service departments.

In 1999, years before 9-11, we concluded that our nation was at serious risk of terrorist attacks. It would be easy for terrorists to simply copy the modus opperandi of the narco traffickers and send these cars to any rail spur in the U.S. loaded with explosives, bio hazards, or a combination thereof.

Feinstein's Failure

Over two years ago we took these concerns, as well as our concerns of corrupt Customs managers, to the FBI, Office of Special Council, the Commissioner of Customs, and to several senators and congressional leaders. In fact, 24 Customs employees signed a letter begging for an investigation into what we all felt was outright corruption, obstruction and violation of civil rights in Southern California. This letter was sent to U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., through certified mail.

Not only did Sen. Feinstein fail to initiate an investigation into our allegations, approximately two weeks after her office received this letter, she was seen on a Customs yacht with one of the very managers against whom we were making these allegations.
Well...Hollywood may want this one after all...It's right in their back yard!

OzzieHalftime.......I fibbed..........#7776006/07/02; 20:29:43

.....Sector's posts I print...and savor....who is that guy?
WaveriderPuplava: Friday's Stock Market WrapUp#7776106/07/02; 21:27:58

"In many ways, since the U.S. is no longer financially independent or self sufficient in capital, the fate of the economy and our financial markets are in foreign hands. Greenspan, by failing to stop the financial bubble by shutting down the money presses, has created a monumental disaster of the Fed's own making. The easy money of the 1990's was a product of a loose monetary policy that injected billions of money and credit into the financial system. Now those chickens are coming home to roost leaving the Fed with little room to maneuver. It is only a question of time before the Fed is forced to raise interest rates in what will be a feeble attempt to support the dollar. Either the Fed will raise rates preemptively, or the markets will do it for them. There is no way out. The rate of growth in Federal Reserve credit creation has been massive. The worst days for the stock market are still in front of us. After the stock market began to deflate, a second bubble was created in the housing market. That bubble will be popped when interest rates start to rise later this summer. Rates have been slowly creeping up since the beginning of the year with long term-rates tumbling on Friday. Long-term Treasury yields are now at 5.66% on the benchmark 30-year bond and 5.065 on the 10-year note.

The Gold Markets
As gold goes through a technical correction it will pass from weak hands into stronger hands before it makes its next assault at new technical targets of $340, and then the ultimate battle that will occur at $400. I suspect it will be an unforeseen event that enables the metals to take out new targets in the first stage of a new bull market in precious metals. The fireworks are just getting started. Gold producers who have been heavy sellers and hedgers of their own product are now furiously buying back and calling in their hedge book. That alone is causing part of gold's rise. However, as I have maintained, the real gold and silver story rest on supply and demand issues. There are no new large supply deposits coming on stream to replace current production and diminishing reserves. That is the real fundamental story of the gold and silver markets. The rest of the story is just background noise. The geo-political tensions and the turmoil in the financial and currency markets are just land mines that will only accelerate the upward movement in prices. The most powerful element will be fear. Just as greed is a powerful emotion that propels higher paper asset prices, fear is the emotion that drives higher precious metals markets.

Corporate Earnings
The final story this week was, as predicted, the bad news on the corporate earnings front. Intel dropped a bombshell yesterday by saying its sales, margins, and profits would be below expectations. Add to Intel's news, the plethora of new scandals, and new SEC investigations, and it wasn't hard to see why stock prices fell this week. They have a further ways to go before we reach oversold extremes. For the week the Dow lost 3.4%, bringing its YTD losses to 4.31%. The S&P 500 fell 3.7% with losses this year now at 10.5%. The Nasdaq got hammered again this week losing 5% bringing its YTD losses to 21.27%."

Waverider: Another excellent Friday market wrap up by Puplava. David Tice made a good analogy at the Gold Conference paralleling the economy to a delinquent teenager who should have been disciplined at age 12. Similarly, the Fed missed its timing to rein in the economic bubble and consequently total financial credit grew by 70% between 1997 and 2000. As with the undisciplined boy, there's inevitably a heavy price to pay despite the Feds continued attempts to prevent purging of the excesses of the 90's. It's gata Puplava said - either the Fed will raise rates preemptively, or the markets will do it for them. I too am kicking back with a glass of Sangiovese!

Zenideastanding on a fortune.#7776206/07/02; 21:40:42

Once apon a time :), When I was 14 in New Zealand it so happened that I perchanced to be-friend another 14 year old that was as enthusiastic as myself at coin collecting.
It was the custom in the early days when one built a home
to place thereunder the concrete doorstep one Gold coin dated the same year as the house was built.
Anyway it so hapened that another school mate got wind of our competitive love as it were and brought in 3 coins and
my mate consumately purchased the two older copper ones, his lunch money limited.
And woe was me whom payed .60 cents for a shining 1908 sovereign for which I discovered was gold that day from my high school engineering teacher and sold it to my father for the going price of 170.00 that next day. This was my introduction to Gold fever.

YGM$50,000,000.00 in "Physical" Gold & Silver Being Bought & Taken Out of Circulation!!#7776306/07/02; 22:06:53

More Pressure on The Cabal.......

I won't go into details as it's kind of a grey area of Forum rules, but CEF (Central Fund of Canada) is buying another 50 mill in Ag & Au bullion. This goes in their private vault (segregated) in a Canadian Bank. This Gold & Silver is not for resale or lease either...Yahoo!
More pressure on the short paper side....YGM

News at GATA yahoo egroup....

YGMCEF or CPM (Centennial Precious Metals)#7776406/07/02; 22:12:56

No Contest........

@ CEF you're paying approx. 20 % over spot for shares to own Gold in some vault other than your own...With all due respect to CEF I'd rather buy here from MK and 'save' money and 'savour' the Gold in my own hands....YGM
seagullGold in ancient times??#7776506/07/02; 23:19:02

This is my first post to the forum, though I have been a daily lurker here since Day One when the day's posts could be viewed almost without scrolling.

I must admit at the outset, that I have come to this forum as a blotting paper, with scant financial knowledge or experience, and perhaps with so little that it was positively dangerous! Checking in here has given me an education that one cannot obtain anywhere else, and for me (whose background is in sport), it has enabled me to see another world that I kinda knew about, but found very complex. I still glaze over, both in confusion for my own inability, but also for the depth of understanding of so many of the posters on this forum. I can only dream of reaching that level of understanding and having something meaningful to post. So thank you all very much for the sharing that goes on here. And thank you, Michael, for hosting this eclectic 'university'.

Given that it is a weekend, and a long one at that here in Oz, the following link is proffered for those interested to grab a coffee (or a Negro for BB) and settle in, for it is quite a long document.

II came across this article just this week, though it was written a while back; it is offered in the 'FWIW; department, and it presents an interesting context for the use of gold in ancient times.
The ritu, it was said, reveals itself as physical matter in the form of the purest and most noble of all metals: gold. Hence, gold was deemed an 'ultimate truth'......

and further........

Hence, it is determined that there are two distinctly separate forms of physical gold: the straightforward metal as we know it, and a much 'higher' state of gold - that is, gold in a different dimension of perceived matter, and this is the white powder of gold, the hidden manna whose secret manufacture was known only by the Master Craftsmen.
So, what precisely is the 'highward' or 'high-spin' state which converts gold (and platinum-group metals) into a sweet-tasting, impalpable white powder?
The link above is a second document at this site by the same author that takes this story further through the middle ages and beyond, and is also an interesting read. But again, it's in the 'FWIW' department.

Cheers and thanks

Simply MeRE: sector's reports on terrorist threats. #7776606/07/02; 23:31:03

When bio-hazard, chemical, or nuclear threats begin to materialize. Who ya gonna call?

Feb. 28, 2002 -- In the four-month period from Nov. 12 through Feb. 11, seven world-class microbiologists in different parts of the world were reported dead. Six died of "unnatural" causes, while the cause of the seventh's death is questionable.

· On Nov. 12, Benito Que, 52, was found comatose in the street near the laboratory where he worked at the University of Miami Medical School. He died on Dec. 6.

· On Nov. 16, Don C. Wiley, 57, vanished, and his abandoned rental car was found on the Hernando de Soto Bridge outside Memphis, Tenn. His body was found on Dec. 20.

· On Nov. 23, Vladimir Pasechnik, 64, was found dead in Wiltshire, England, not far from his home.

· On Dec. 10, Robert Schwartz, 57, was found murdered in his rural home in Loudoun County, Va.

· On Dec, 11, Set Van Nguyen, 44, was found dead in the airlock entrance to a walk-in refrigerator in the laboratory where he worked in Victoria State, Australia.

· On Feb. 8, Vladimir Korshunov, 56, was found dead on a Moscow street.

· And on Feb. 11, Ian Langford, 40, was found dead in his home in Norwich, England.


A meeting of the Center for Law and the Public Health (CLPH) was convened on Oct. 5. This group is run jointly by Georgetown University Law School and Johns Hopkins Medical School, and was founded under the auspices of the Center for Disease Control (CDC). CLPH was formed one month prior to the 2000 Presidential election. The purpose of the October meeting was to draft legislation to respond to the then current bioterrorism threat.

After working only 18 days, on Nov. 23 CLPH released a 40-page document called the Model Emergency Health Powers Act (MEHPA). This was a "model" law that HHS is suggesting be enacted by the 50 states to handle future public health emergencies such as bioterrorism. A revised version was released on Dec. 21 containing more specific definitions of "public health emergency" as it pertains to bioterrorism and biologic agents, and includes language for those states that want to use the act for chemical, nuclear or natural disasters.

According to the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons (AAPS), after declaring a "public health emergency", and without consulting with public health authorities, law enforcement, the legislature or courts, a state governor using MEHPA, or anyone he/she decides to empower, can among many things:

· Require any individual to be vaccinated. Refusal constitutes a crime and will result in quarantine.
· Require any individual to undergo specific medical treatment. Refusal constitutes a crime and will result in quarantine.
· Seize any property, including real estate, food, medicine, fuel or clothing, an official thinks necessary to handle the emergency.
· Seize and destroy any property alleged to be hazardous. There will be no compensation or recourse.
· Draft you or your business into state service.
· Impose rationing, price controls, quotas and transportation controls.
· Suspend any state law, regulation or rule that is thought to interfere with handling the declared emergency.

As of this writing the law has been passed in Kentucky. According to AAPS, it has been introduced in the legislatures of Arizona, California, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Mississippi, Michigan, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania and Tennessee. It is expected to be introduced shortly in Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine, and Wisconsin. MEHPA is being evaluated by the executive branches in North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Virginia and Washington, DC.

The research the microbiologists were doing could have developed methods of treating diseases like anthrax and smallpox without conventional antibiotics or vaccines. Pharmaceutical contracts to deal with these diseases will total hundreds of millions, if not billions, of dollars. If epidemics could be treated in non-traditional ways, MEHPA might not be necessary.<unsnip>

Simply: Since this article was written (Feb. '02) more important microbiologists have died. Some reports put the number at more than a dozen. Killed by enemy governments? Terrorist plots? Pharmaceutical companies? Fascist elements of our own government? Any combination of the above?

I wonder how much gold it might take to bribe your way out of quarantine?

Gandalf the WhiteWELCOME Sir Seagull !!! #777676/8/02; 00:14:17

seagull (06/07/02; 23:19:02MT - msg#: 77765)
"This is my first post to the forum, though I have been a daily lurker here since Day One when the day's posts could be viewed almost without scrolling."
A very warm WELCOME to you in the DOWNUNDER !! YES INDEED, the USAGOLD Forum has come a LONG WAY since DAY #1, and with yours' and other LURKERS' help, we all can continue to learn more from all corners of this Orb to enable all to have the data to reach the TRUTH !

Golden BearHey Koala,#777686/8/02; 00:17:43

here is another recommendation for Gold Wars for you by Adam Hamilton in his latest weekly piece - Gold stock investing 101 - at the above link.

"...Hedging, in the gold stock world, has evolved into something more closely resembling pure speculation as retired Swiss banker Ferdinand Lips documents in his awesome new book ?Gold Wars?..."ÿ


Golden BearSimply Me (msg#: 77766)#777696/8/02; 00:34:28

Thanks for the link...

For those who haven't read it, all the microbiologists were specialists in their field - Research in DNA sequencing, related to vaccine production against viral epidemics and germ warfare....
HipplebeckAristotle#777706/8/02; 06:15:25

Aristotle (06/07/02; 16:39:46MT - msg#: 77746)

Last night you wrote:

Hipplebeck, my own outlook isn't as bleak as yours appears to be
Can you help breathe some warm moist air into my pathetic little fledgling stormclouds by explaining your phrase:

"If they succeed, we are all enslaved for life."

What does that mean? How does it come about? Methinks you are distilling lemonade back into lemons.

Aristotle, If they succeed in breaking the link between gold and money in peoples minds, then people will no longer have an agreed upon scale to measure with. It will be the end of freedom for everyone because oligovernments (a combination of corporate oligarchs and government) will have complete control of not only all money, but the perception of what money is and how much is out there. With the facade of statistics and indexes and such, no one will know anything about how much money has come into existance. Through derivatives, the rich will be able to control all prices no matter how much money they create for their own use. It will be back to the days of the feudal lords on a global scale. As time goes on, oligovernment control becomes more and more sophisticated until we are truly slaves to the self chosen elite. "The nobles" will be the new royalty and the rest the serfs, indebted for life. In the old days, they knew who the royalty was, so when it came time to rebel, they knew whose heads to cut off, but in the new world order, they will be hidden behind layers of corporate structure, so identifying the new royalty will be much harder, and with new serveillance techniques it will be harder and harder for the little guy to communicate his outrage to his brothers.
The new world order looks very bleak to me. But then I am only a carpenter.
I am looking forward to the post new world order where we will all have gold and silver coins to trade with.

JCTexUSAGOLD#77751#777716/8/02; 06:19:07

The question you posed deserves to be mentioned again, and again, and again. In fact, it should be put in the Hall of Fame.

"..Have you ever thought about how much time the financial mainstream press consumes telling us all how much they don't like gold?
If it were as meaningless to the individual portfolio as they purvey, why consume so much precious time laboring to keep investors away from it?..."

Simply Me(No Subject)#777726/8/02; 07:35:20

@Golden Bear: Thanks for adding that important qualifying statement.

The search for the meaning of gold in our lives has become the search for truth.

YGMHello seagull.....#777736/8/02; 09:15:14

Good to hear ya mate!....Here's a link to another 'Seagull'


*My brothers!" he cried. "Who is more responsible than a gull who finds and follows a meaning, a higher purpose for life? For a thousand years we have scrabbled after fish heads, but now we have a chance, let me show you what I've found..."

*A long silence. "Well, this kind of flying has always been here to be learned by anybody who wanted to discover it; that's got nothing to do with time. We're ahead of the fashion, maybe. Ahead of the way that most gulls fly."

* "Poor Fletch. Don't believe what your eyes are telling you. All they show is limitation. Look with your understanding, find out what you already know, and you'll see the way to fly."

* "To begin with," he said heavily, "you've got to understand that a seagull is an unlimited idea of freedom, an image of the Great Gull, and your whole body, from wingtip to wingtip, is nothing more than your though itself."

"Seagull" appropriate handle for a 'Truth Seeker'

YGMJCTex....#777746/8/02; 09:23:11

Media Talking Heads..."Doth Protest too Much"

The more they denigrate Gold the more they 'inadvertantly'
bring the thoughts of Gold back into peoples lives...They serve only to multiply the #'s of contrarians by using the word 'Gold'... The sheer mention of it causes minds to wander from the 'Paper Fold'....IMHO...YGM

YGMJP Morgan Forecast Dollar Dive!#777756/8/02; 10:22:16

Dive 15% In Next Two Years
Bloomberg News

NEW YORK - The US dollar may drop by as much as 15 per cent against major currencies in the next two years, extending a four-month slide as demand for United States assets wanes, according to JP Morgan Chase.

Foreigners may hesitate to invest in the US on concern that there may be more terrorist attacks there, said Ms Rebecca Patterson, a currency strategist at JP Morgan, the fifth-biggest foreign exchange trader.

She said expectations of a sluggish economic recovery and reduced confidence in corporate accounting will cut demand for US stocks and bonds.

The dollar's slide since February is 'the real deal', she said. 'You're not going to have enough capital flows to offset' the deficit in the current account, the broadest measure of a country's trade.

The dollar fell to a 16-month low against the euro and a six-month low against the yen last week on speculation that a rebound in the world's biggest economy is losing steam, prompting foreigners to shun US stocks.

The currency rose to 93.52 US cents per euro in London trading yesterday from 93.82 late on Wednesday and to 124.92 yen from 124.57, on expectations that employment reports due today will ease concern that growth is slowing in the US.

JP Morgan's forecasting models show that 'fair value' for the dollar is US$1 to US$1.05 per euro and 105 to 110 yen.

The dollar may take longer than two years to reach that fair value level against the yen as Japan has been selling its currency to slow its rally, said Ms Patterson. 'The yen will keep strengthening but it will be a gradual move.'

The US current account shortfall was US$417 billion (S$750.6 billion), the equivalent of 4.1 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) last year. JP Morgan expects the deficit to widen to a record US$492 billion this year, or 4.6 per cent of GDP, and balloon to 4.9 per cent next year.

In one example of waning demand for US assets, foreigners' net purchases of US bonds in the first quarter were 30 per cent less than the same period last year, said JP Morgan. -- Bloomberg News

YGMExtreme Example of Gold Numismatic Value Collecting....#777766/8/02; 10:29:24

1933 St Gaudens........$2 - 5 Million?????


PHOENIX, AZ (June 6) Craig Smith, CEO of Swiss
America will be available for live comment at the
first West Coast viewing of the famous 1933 $20
Saint Gaudens coin to be auctioned at Sotheby's
in NYC on July 30th.

Mr. Smith will be bidding on the historic one-of-
a-kind coin which survived the great gold meltdown
of 1933 by FDR. Smith and other coin experts expect
the coin to bring between $2,000,0000 and
$5,000,000 - making it the most valuable coin on

Craig's highly acclaimed new book, "Rediscovering Gold
in the 21st Century: The Complete Guide to the Next
Gold Rush," was written to help readers understand why
gold is timeless money and the basis for all "money."

Never underestimate the value of Gold with somebody's face on it!.......YGM (:<})

turkey hunterThe rules have changed#777776/8/02; 10:31:06

I received my latest news letter from Joan Veon. Joan Veon is an independent reporter who has attended most if not all the big NWO meetings. The title of the newsletter is "The
Completion of the Final Thrust" Changing the law to create stock market crashes. She discussed the Repeal of the 1933 Glass-Steagall Act and the Revision of the Securities
Exchange Act of 1934. Both which changed America. The most unfortunate aspect is that the common investor will have no protection from market swings that now can be created by very powerful individuals who buy low and sell high.

To sum it up she says that Corporations and Foundations have taken over the governments. She quoted Andrew Crockett, President of the BIS at a US-EU Symposium earlier this year, "Advances in information technology {have created} the transformation from a government [controlled financial system] to a market-led [corporate and foundations]global financial system". Crockett also said that the BIS played a significant role in changing and setting up the new global system.

The entire SEC Act of 1934 which was part of how congress fixed the 1929 stock market crash is being re-written and will now give authority to a non-elected group of people who
will change our accounting and auditing rules, thus creating an open season for those in control to seize control.

Conclusion: If you think the volatility has increased, wait. Now that all borders are down between nation states everytime the international bankers and insiders see an opportunity to cash in it will be the little guy who gets squeezed. Where will the little guy go for Justice?
Not to congress for they are in the process of voting all of their power to independent committees,boards,foundations and non profit organizations.

What should be a core holding in our portfolios? Gold and silver.

Turkey Hunter. I've read a lot about the BIS lately and me thinks that the BIS is wanting to take America down and they have the ability to do it so Europe can be the financial power in IMHO.

The link above is for past articles written by Joan Veon. A lot of info.

Mr GreshamYikes!#777786/8/02; 10:46:28

(Nice post #77777 you got there, turkeyhunter!)

Gold takes a breather, and I get a week behind in reading -- just dropping in and catching a few skims doesn't satisfy my worry I'm missing great stuff. But "real life" intrudes.

When I ask myself why I'm not putting this reading ahead of other stuff (like collecting old fiat fees from past-due clients -- a depressing task if ever twas one), the only answer that pops in my head is: Gold has started acting (more) like a regular market now. The manips (or one branch of 'em) have lost some control, and I'm on board for the ride, TG.

gotta run...

goldquestInvestors Are Getting Angry#777796/8/02; 11:05:15

The window is closing! The road to survival and wealth is through Gold.
Black BladeJobless dip doesn't spell recovery #777806/8/02; 13:59:02


WASHINGTON, June 7 (UPI) -- It's far too soon to state that the worst is over for the U.S. economy, simply as a result of a dip in the unemployment rate, a senior government official warned Friday. But ahead of the mid-term elections in November, most Congressmen were more eager to focus on the few positive signs of an upturn in growth prospects, rather than looking at the broader picture that actually remains bleak for many in the nation. The Labor Department reported earlier in the day that May's unemployment rate fell to 5.8 percent from 6.0 percent the previous month, while non-farm payrolls rose by 41,000, marking the biggest one-month increase since February 2001.

Black Blade: The unemployment rate fell according to the BLS. Of course they don't count those who have given up, benefits run out, don't qualify for benefits, etc. What else happened here? I think that people should also keep in mind that first time claims fell last week as the data included the holiday Memorial Day when no claims could be filed. Data for last month's non-farm payroll rise was revised from a gain of 43,000 to only 6,000 (after smoothing and filtering of data of course). From the BLS report: The number of long-term unemployed persons--those unemployed 27 weeks or longer--rose by 142,000 in May, following increases of similar size in March and April. This measure has increased by about 1 million persons over the past 12 months. About 1.5 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in May, up from 1.1 million a year earlier. These individuals reported that they wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed, however, because they had not actively searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers was 407,000 in May. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, were not currently looking for work specifically because they believed no jobs were available for them. Also, note that the BLS will change the rules for data revision (that is set new rules for data manipulation – a common practice since 1997). Meanwhile more and more companies are announcing layoffs. The "Bone Pile" grows.

Black BladeUS credit card debts soar#777816/8/02; 14:07:20


Many shoppers use credit cards rather than cash. America's shoppers are as keen as ever to whip out their plastic cards, according to the latest lending data. Credit card loans rose $4.2bn (£2.9bn) in April from the previous month when the rise had been $2.3bn. Overall, consumer credit in the US - which includes car finance and other loans not secured in property, as well as credit card debts - rose a seasonally adjusted $8.8bn in April from the previous month, the Federal Reserve said.

Black Blade: This is not a good sign. This will end badly as new regulations make it much more difficult to declare bankruptcy on credit card debt. As always, get out of debt (and stay out of debt), stash enough cash for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic goods storage program. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Black BladeWhen Options Count, Profit Slump Widens: Taking Stock#777826/8/02; 14:17:37


New York, June 7 (Bloomberg) -- Cisco Systems Inc. reported $21 million in income from operations last year. The biggest networking-equipment maker would have had a loss of $2.8 billion had it included the cost of stock options granted to employees, according to research by Lehman Brothers Inc. Now relegated to footnotes in annual reports, option expenses may be included in corporate bottom lines -- slashing profits for many companies. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and investors including Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s Warren Buffett are among those pressing for more rigorous accounting. The U.S. Senate is considering a bill that would require companies to record the cost of executives' options. Standard & Poor's said last month it will count all employee options when it calculates earnings for S&P 500 Index members.

Black Blade: Yet investors are being lied to. They are told that companies like Cisco are making a "profit". That's a lie of course. But trickery and any means to fool the investor seems to be "fair play" as far as Wall Street is concerned. Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) is vigorously opposed to a crack down on this dishonesty. Can you say "Campaign Contribution"?

Black BladeA Poke at Merrill's Black Eye #777836/8/02; 14:25:10

Schwab, Prudential Ads Try to Capitalize on Bad News


A new television commercial for Charles Schwab & Co. shows a manager telling a group of brokers: "We've gotta lot of stock to move today, people. Tell your customers this one's hot. . . . Just don't mention the fundamentals, they stink. . . . Now let's put some lipstick on this pig." Coming as it does just weeks after state authorities disclosed e-mails in which Merrill Lynch & Co. former top Internet analyst Henry Blodget privately disparaged stock his group was touting publicly, CBS refused to run the Schwab ad. Network officials said it unfairly impugned the ethics of all Wall Street firms and seemed to be a direct attack on Merrill Lynch.

Black Blade: Unfortunately many investment houses put lipstick on a lot of pigs. Merrill Lynch and many others now face a lot of angry investors with lawyers in tow. An avalanche of lawsuits are sure to follow.

Black BladeStocks in deepest funk 'in 30 years'#777846/8/02; 14:34:43


Veteran market watchers are stunned by how deep investor pessimism is running, even as North America's economic fundamentals improve. "This is the longest, nastiest, most wicked bear market I have seen in 30 years, and it is likely to continue," said Roger Hornett, head of Theodoor Gilissen Securities in London. "There's no reason right now to do any buying ... the mood is miserable," said Michael Palazzi, head of trading for SG Cowen in New York. "We're bunkering down."

Black Blade: Much of the problem for Wall Street strategists is that they believe that the economy is improving and they are stunned that the bear market is so brutal. These unfortunate believers don't realize that the government data is massaged to make the picture brighter than it really is. Let's face it, this data manipulation is a political game. The reason that the markets are tanking are because there are no rising corporate profits, layoffs are rising, consumers are tapped out and can't keep going into debt to prop up the economy, consumers and corporations are buried under crushing debt, etc.

Black BladeAdelphia kept 2 sets of books #777856/8/02; 14:41:35


June 7 — Adelphia Communications Corp. inflated the number of its cable-TV subscribers by between 400,000 and 500,000, or as much as 10 percent of the company's total customer base, according to people familiar the situation. In addition, investigators have uncovered evidence that Adelphia kept two sets of accounting books for its capital expenditures, one of which was shown to Wall Street and boosted the amount Adelphia spent to upgrade its cable systems.

Black Blade: Personally, I don't think that Adelphia is alone. There are a lot of warts hidden under thick layers of makeup on Wall Street. Maybe investors are just beginning to wake up and smell the coffee. There is so much dishonesty on Wall Street, in investment houses, brokerages, and banks, and in corporations (corporate executives, auditors, and boards of directors).

steadyre BIS taking down america!#777866/8/02; 14:58:48

describes the sting the bis has in place. note the date of the article. hope ypu been paying attention. as black blade eloquently says
as usual get gold, get silver get supplies. etc. etc. etc.

Leighsteady#777876/8/02; 15:17:32

Mr. Johnston is the same gentleman who wrote the 1975 letter I posted several weeks ago. My father-in-law was given a copy of the older letter by a goldbug in his office. Apparently copies were circulating around Houston back in the 1970s.

What an interesting guy! What a great dad to have!!

koala bear7 good years & 7bad years?#777886/8/02; 16:49:27

7 good years & 7 bad years

I offer the following thoughts here not to start some Biblical discussion, but only as food-for-though to those who have a common interest in the future of the PoG. I realize that the following theory only holds together loosely and could easily be deconstructed. [Let's hope it fails utterly]

WARNING: Reach for the salt shaker now.

Joseph correctly interpreted Pharaoh's dreams to mean that there would be 7 good years followed by 7 bad years, this is recorded in Genesis chapter 41. Many people believe that the pattern of events recorded in Genesis correlates with the book of Revelation, I agree with that position and would ask those who believe in the validity of Scripture to consider the following:
We in the western world have enjoyed 7 very good years. According to the index [DJIA] the ‘Clinton-bull-market’ begun around December 1994. If we add 7 years to Dec. 94 we get Dec.01.
I have been kicking-around these thoughts for a number of years and I was going to dismiss them earlier this year when things looked as if they were completely wrong. But it seems that gold entered a bull market sometime around Dec.01 …hmmm… *If* this theory is correct it would mean we are facing 7 bad years. Only time will tell for sure.

A couple of things I would like to stress at this point is:
1) That I do not believe in the current ‘rapture’ theory. Don't think that anyone is about to be raptured into heaven [eyes rolling].
2) And I am not suggesting that we are on the verge of what is commonly called "the great tribulation".

Joseph wisely prepared for the difficult times ahead and before it was all over the government owned everything. All money [silver & gold], all land, all cattle, all people, all debts, everything [Gen.47:14-18]. Total economic conquest. What a triumph for the welfare state! Let's hope this never happens again. I shudder to think what type of despotic monolith would emerge from such a coup. Are we staring down the barrel of the greatest depression in the history of humanity? Please note, the famine was so severe that the "money failed". And their money was real money not the paper & plastic crap we use! …hmmm… Could baked beans become a medium of exchange in the future? [insert fart gag here] I digress. Would anyone seriously include baked beans in their portfolio?


BulldogTelus adds to the bone pile#777896/8/02; 17:32:47

Telus, the telephone provider in Alberta & British Columbia
is chopping 11,000 jobs which is 40% of its unionized workforce.

slingshotKoala Bear#777906/8/02; 18:00:04


I have never ate a bean I did not like. Red,pinto,lima,navy
and black, you name it. Long has it graced our tables in some form. Where would Chili be without the bean. Yepper it is in my survival portfolio.
Imagine all the Wendy's
Its easy if you try
Large domino's pizza
And Mickey D's french fries
Imagine all that fast food
Vanish before your eyes, Yoo Hoo ah hoo
You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one
I can tell you that one day
It will all be gone

But the bean will go on and on. Right along with Gold. :0)


Black BladeUruguay leader races to Argentina to explain slur #777916/8/02; 18:33:16


BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, June 3 (Reuters) - Uruguay's president will fly to Buenos Aires in a frantic effort to patch up usually cordial relations with Argentina after calling the South American neighbor's politicians a "band of thieves." An Argentine government spokesman said President Jorge Batlle's trip on Tuesday is to "clarify" his comments in a television interview aired on Monday, where he also said Argentina's president had no idea how to save the nation from economic crisis. "The Argentine situation is an Argentine problem: a band of thieves from top to bottom," Batlle told Bloomberg Television during an outburst in which he shouted at the interviewer complaining Uruguay should not be compared to Argentina.

Black Blade: Getting a bit "testy" in South America these days.

Black BladeBrazil feared to be next potential meltdown#777926/8/02; 18:50:34


With the dust just barely settled from Argentina's disastrous debt default and currency devaluation, all eyes in the emerging markets are focusing on Brazil as the site of the next potential meltdown. Brazil may have much deeper debt problems that won't be easily solved regardless of who wins the election, according to analysts at New york-based bond research firm CreditSights Inc. In the months following the Argentine crisis, many strategists noted with relief the economic collapse had not spread to neighbouring countries like Brazil. But now it seems the domino effect from Argentina was just slow to materialize.

Black Blade: It is widely expected that Brazil will default on debt just as Argentina has. Columbia and Venezuela are also in deep trouble. The whole region could easily spiral out of control and lead to a lot of political unrest.

AristotleHipplebeck, thanks bunches for your #77770 reply today#777936/8/02; 18:55:22

Prior to getting much further down this road, I want to refresh your memory with your opening comment to me, and then follow up with a very important question. And so as not to bore you unnecessarily with my longwinded thoughts, I'll leave it to you to ferret out the problematic relevance between my question as a follow-up specifically to your comment.

You said:

"Aristotle, If they succeed in breaking the link between gold and money in peoples minds, then people will no longer have an agreed upon scale to measure with."

Which begs me to ask:

Hipplebeck, will you please "discover" where in world inflation comes from?

Property. Get you some. --- Aristotle

shadestelus bonepile#777946/8/02; 19:44:32

Whoa Bulldog my friend, Im from that neck of the woods and the story is that they have offered a buyout package to 11,000 and not that many to be laid off, albeit im sure if 11,000 dont accept this offer we can see that many lose their jobs, but to keep the bonepile numbers legit i think we need to add total authenticity to the reports we make to the forum, I really only substantiate the numbers from Sir Black Blade as this was his baby and tend to filter out the rest because i trust his research. please dont take this as personal offense as i value everyones opinion for their right to freedom of speech. To change to another topic I remember reading somewhere ( cant remember what or whem ) an article regarding the Hunt Bros building a silver mine in Canada and having to mothball it while it was fully operational due to bankruptcy by comex bs does anyone know if this mine is operating? by what name? and by what company? thanks people
RockUSAGOLD#777956/8/02; 20:12:37

Sir MK, my setiments exactly. msg # 77751


mikalMainstream media unveiling China concern#777966/8/02; 21:46:08

JUNE 17, 2002
By Jeffrey E. Garten
When Everything Is Made in China
The world economy is getting more reliant on Chinese factories. But having one giant supplier could mean a giant disruption
During the past few months, Intel Corp. (INTC ) announced a $100 million investment in Shanghai to assemble Pentium 4 microprocessors. Dell Computer Corp. (DELL ) moved its giant PC-making facility from Kuala Lumpur to Xiamen. The provincial government of Shenzhen said it would provide $5 billion to boost its integrated-circuit industry. It's not hard to connect the dots. "China is becoming a manufacturing superpower," Kenneth Courtis, Goldman, Sachs & Co.'s vice-chairman for Asia, says, "and the momentum seems unstoppable."
The big question is whether the world economy is becoming so dependent on China as an industrial lifeline that it will soon be dangerously vulnerable to a major supply disruption ...........There isn't an easy answer for every problem, of course. But it is not too much to ask the Bush Administration to create a joint government-business task force to examine key questions. Is the approximately 90% of all foreign investment that is geographically located in China's coastal provinces a dangerous concentration? Should Washington take another look at tax and tariff incentives to make the entire Caribbean Basin--Mexico, Central America, and the islands--more attractive to foreign manufacturers? Should multinational companies be encouraged to hold larger inventories closer to home? Does China need to beef up its security around its vast industrial parks?
For a quarter of a century, Washington and Wall Street have wanted China to become an integral part of the world economy. Their wish has been granted, and now it's time to come to grips with the link for more. The high level of foreign investment in a communist country with few human rights is slated to grow and grow- unless funds are reapportioned domestically, locally throughout the world, resulting from financial shock and crisis, gov't. revenue shortfalls, depression, stagflation, or a less predictable event(s) forcing adjustments. Transportation for example, relies on cheap and abundant energy, reasonable peacetime insurance rates, low cost labor, etc. Social and labor unrest, war, and a natural or terrorist disaster in China or elsewhere, also can precipitate national movements of fund repatriation and the holding of official and private precious metal. After the dollar loses it's international reserve currency status and favor abroad, prices of overseas goods will increase, and likely increase with higher energy, insurance, tax, and other costs. US industry will need a minimum of lower taxes and less restrictive regulations for a renewal of our manufacturing, mining, textiles, etc.

mikalLink for below#777976/8/02; 21:49:35

URL source of China story below
WaveriderPray tell us, where should we go to for a safe haven in a world gone paranoid? #777986/8/02; 22:04:21

"The world, let's admit, has gone insane, or damn close to it. That's hardly a revelation in our post-September 11 existence, characterised as it is by suicide bombers and anthrax scares. But recent events in Asia drove the point home.

So where to go for safety? To gold, perhaps. Japanese households, worried about banks failing, have been buying it all year."

Waverider: An interesting article on the "what ifs"...of course Gold is the answer!

WaveriderPrevious link#777996/8/02; 22:07:04

I see that you need to scroll down to the article, can't get a direct link.
WaveriderMining legislation hailed as a pot of gold for new entrants #778006/8/02; 22:36:21

Not a direct link - please scroll down and click on article.

"Cosatu and the National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) this weekend called for the country's new mining legislation to get tougher on monopoly ownership in the mining sector.

While supporting the overall intention of the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Bill, the unions said in a statement on Friday that the licensing system envisaged carried the danger of resurrecting the ownership patterns of previous decades.

The unions said that once a company got an initial prospecting right for a mineral, it became very easy for it to get mining and renewal rights.

Pushing for a modification of the licensing system, Cosatu said the objectives of the legislation should be translated into criteria for the awarding of rights."

Waverider: I had a lengthy discussion with Bob Chapman at the Gold conference this past week and as we know, he is not recommending investment in South Africa. He has lived in both SA and Zim and feels certain that the SA governments intention is to nationalize the mines. Could someone (preferably a poster from SA) indicate what this mining legislation means for the established mines, and explain how/why it is *not* a step towards nationalization. I know when we had some discussion about this previously, (a few weeks ago) a few SA posters felt fairly certain that there is no risk of nationalization, yet this legislation seems possibly to suggest otherwise. TIA.

WaveriderLind - Previous headline#778016/8/02; 22:41:21

I see that you need to click on "General News" on the left side to find the headline - this newsite used to have direct links to articles - that's changed I see!
WaveriderIs it time to unload gold stocks?#7785506/09/02; 23:59:45

BelgianWaverider#778566/10/02; 00:43:10

Yep, I surely own you, actually 5 beers ! That was your multiplication with that specific paper, wasn't it ? Sure it is beer, not champagne that is more appropiate for celebration of such a big clappediclap ?
Lucky you. OK give me a signal when y're in Zurich !

UsulGolden Parachute#778576/10/02; 01:28:28

"There may be only one type of job in which somebody can commit a felony and, after being fired as a result, still receive a severance package worth many years of salary. The job is chief executive of a large corporation..."

How many times have we seen this- take Enron for example. How many charges have been brought?

UsulThe phantom of U.S. consumer confidence#778586/10/02; 01:46:40

"...a growing number of researchers and economists say consumer confidence may be a phantom concept..."

As long as you shovel easy money into sheeple's pockets, they will say "thanks mate" and run to the shopping centre, the mall, the car dealer... easy come, easy go.

The deluge of pre-approved loans and credit card offerings seen today would have been unthinkable in a previous generation closer to the hard times following the depression and war.

Today's mortgage providers are happy to provide financing up to and beyond the value of a property. Some mortgage providing entities also have a perceived "phantom government backing" that does not exist in reality. Are they too big to fail?

It's easy to be "confident" and pile up easy debt money when interest rates have been pushed down- yet the gain in GDP obtained from the rate cuts has been paltry.

It's less easy to be confident, when you are one of the recently redundant. And the bone pile grows...

The dollar weakness may be the turning point [followed by rate rises to retain holders of dollar denominated interest paying assets] at which debt repayment begins to sap the will to spend easy money- you can't take on new loans if your disposable income is suddenly eaten up by increased interest repayments on your existing ones.

Perhaps sheeple may choose to release the equity in their appreciating property by selling down- which could have an interesting effect on the property markets to say the least, as sheeple tend to move in herds.

TownCrierHEADLINE: Indonesian Rupiah Rises on Speculation of Central Bank Buying#778596/10/02; 01:50:07

Jakarta, June 10 (Bloomberg) -- The Indonesian rupiah, Asia's best-performer this year, rose on speculation the central bank bought the currency to prevent it from falling too fast on investor concern a scrapped asset sale will slow a recovery.

...The rupiah climbed 0.5 percent to 8,850 against the U.S. dollar, bringing gains to more than 17 percent this year, after state banks bought the currency at the behest of the central bank, traders said.

-------(click URL for full text)----------

Sailing on a different tack than Japan. Indonesia discovers a "politically correct" explanation/excuse to dishoard foreign exchange paper (dollars)? A bet I would take.


Black Blade'Overpriced' homes become debt traps#778606/10/02; 02:14:55


Some experts are raising warning flags about housing values. Their advice: Don't bank on your house continuing to rise in value. Depending on where you live, it may be overpriced already. Consumers should approach low-cost home loans and lines of credit with caution, credit counselors say. Although they can help lower monthly payments if used judiciously, those tempting offers can also lead to more burdensome mortgage debt. And unfortunately, an increasing number of Americans appear to be taking on larger and larger amounts.

"There are a lot of markets that are in a housing bubble," says Ingo Winzer, president of Local Market Monitor in Wellesley, Mass. Mr. Winzer tracks the relationship of income to housing prices in 120 local markets. And right now, he says, 45 percent of them are overpriced -- a record. "People right now apparently are willing to go into debt more than ever to buy a house and other stuff," he adds. Among his top overpriced markets: Boston, San Diego, Detroit, and Denver. In a recent report, Ian Morris of HSBC Securities in New York warned that housing prices had reached new highs. For every dollar of disposable personal income in the United States, there's $1.62 worth of residential real estate. The disparity hasn't been that wide in at least 50 years, Mr. Morris warns.

Black Blade: The housing bubble could be next to burst. Strangely many are willingly going into debt using risking their homes -- that's insane. People could even find themselves owing more than their house is worth.

TownCrierHEADLINE: Dollar gains vs yen; BOJ provides firm floor#778616/10/02; 02:23:08

Unlike Indonesia, Japan continues to prop up the dollar.


TOKYO, June 10 (Reuters) - The dollar posted modest gains against the yen on Monday morning with traders saying Japan's repeated yen-selling intervention over the past few weeks had proved effective in sealing a firm floor for the U.S. currency.

"The dollar managed to stay above 124 yen, even when it was being sold overnight," said Shogo Nagaya, foreign exchange manager at Nomura Trust and Banking.

...Traders estimate the Bank of Japan spent well over two trillion yen ($16 billion) in the four days that it entered the market over the past few weeks when the dollar slipped below 124 yen.

...The U.S. currency also made some headway against the euro on position adjustment. "Many were long on the euro so they may be cutting back such positions. But the move is purely technical and expected to have little effect in the long run," another Japanese city back dealer said.

Traders said the dollar remains under pressure against the euro, with some saying they even expected the single currency to jump as high as 96.00 cents during the week...

----------(click URL for full text)--------

Intervention by central banks acting alone can be merely a guise for portfolio adjustments, or it can be for supporting a show of political alignment. Against the trend of market forces, however, most central bankers already concede the ultimate futility of such efforts to affect exchange rates outside the immediate term.


Black BladeGold: The Glitter Is Back#778626/10/02; 02:36:20


Investors turn to gold...

Traditionally, gold has been seen as a hedge against inflation. The logic is straightforward. Inflation raises the opportunity cost of holding money in the bank, raises the expected rate of return on financial assets and, thus, marks down the value of financial assets.

Thus, during times of high inflation, investors and households turn to real assets, such as gold and property. This also makes it clear as to why gold prices were generally in a downward trend over the last two decades (1981-2000). Central bankers in the industrialised world set out to conquer inflation and largely succeeded in their mission. Long-term interest rates fell. Expected rates of return on financial assets dropped.

Black Blade: The article doesn't cover much about gold but does give a litany of reasons why investors are not happy with paper investments these days.

TownCrierDon't let the "scary" headline fool you. This is a good article on the whole.#778636/10/02; 02:56:58

Good overview of India's participation in the physical gold market. But human behavior being what it is, take all analyst conclusions with a grain of salt... go with your gut.

Imports during the first half of the year are expected to fall. Primarily because India is a price sensitive market.

...Consumer demand ... fell by 10 per cent in the first quarter at 749.5 tonnes. Investment demand was higher at 125.6 tonnes, by 36 per cent while jewellery demand fell by 15 per cent to 623.9 tonnes.

...The primary reason for this fall, says the survey, is the sharp rise in the gold prices in February 2002, which lead to the fall in consumption.

...Indian gold market is set apart from the gold markets of the rest of the world primary differential characteristic being --"taxes". In India, the custom's duty tax slaps on $15.86 (Rs 25 per gm) per ounce of gold. Another 1%, is then levied by the authorised agencies and banks, which sells the gold to the bullion merchants. Thus Indian gold is one of the highest priced in the world.

When the price of gold increases, India stays out of the market until local dealer stocks are depleted and dishoarding comes in to fill the gap. Once the dishoarding falls off, demand once again warrants going back into world markets and paying the added premium of import and agency fees.

...The pattern seems to be that gold spikes up, leaving a gap between Indian prices and world gold prices. Gold then slips back a bit and just like clockwork, Indian prices rise to meet the legal import level. No sooner do the two levels meet and almost instantaneously, gold powers up, moving out of reach of Indian consumption once again.

...This is ... due to the increased level of demand outside the Indian market that is keeping world gold prices higher and new gold imports just out of reach.

...The new players on the demand side, the producers, the Japanese, the Germans and new investment demand, etc., all want gold to meet their needs. The problem is that there is not enough gold to fill their baskets and the baskets of the Indians too.

Undoubtedly, there must be winners and losers in the mix. The winners of course, will be determined by who was willing to pay the higher price. And India for sure knows that it can wait for the right time given the gold accumulated over the years, traders said.

---------(click URL for full text)----------

Recommended reading. What is your place in the world of gold investors?

As far as the phrase "food for thought" can be taken literally, that last paragraph is the equivalent of a Thanksgiving Day Feast.


Black BladeWorld Cup#778646/10/02; 03:02:53

And it is: USA 1 S. Korea 1, a tie.
Black BladePolice Steal Panners' Gold -- The "Barbarous Relic" Files#778656/10/02; 03:17:01


Four West Nicholson (Zimbabwe) policemen allegedly mounted illegal raids at the Valley Mine gold mining camps and converted to their personal use, 40 bags of gold ore left by fleeing panners.

Black Blade: How they find time between killing white farmers and beating members of the opposition MDC is beyond me. And all for a "barbarous relic". To "protect and Serve". Hmmm...

Black BladeUS Still Faces Less Supply, More Demand for Natural Gas #778666/10/02; 04:07:38


Reports that weather-adjusted US demand for natural gas declined by 5-10 bcfd as prices recently climbed above $3.50/Mcf "don't pass the smell test," said a Houston-based financial analyst with a reputation for being bullish on that market. J. Marshall Adkins, with Raymond James & Associates Inc. of St. Petersburg, Fla., claims such reports are based on 11 questionable data" about US gas storage and incorrect methodology of analysis.

"Many analysts are incorrectly using annual linear regression models to correlate shoulder month degree days with injections," he said. "Most are assuming that the weekly storage numbers [for the period in April when responsibility for reporting storage was transferred from the American Gas Association to the US Energy Information Administration] are correct." "In other words, we believe that the historical data support our thesis that there is at least 2 bcfd less natural gas supply in the system and 3 bcfd more natural gas demand than last year."

Adkins predicts that injections of gas into US storage will be reduced to a weekly average of 65-75 bcf over the next 6 weeks. "Then it should be more than evident to everyone that there has, in fact, been no demand deterioration and that US natural gas supply-demand is much tighter than it was during this time last year," he said."

Black Blade: In short, the rosy data so far may be flawed and the true picture is much worse. I have noticed that injection data has been somewhat flat recently during a period when rates are expected to climb. We could easily see a new energy crisis developing by late this year or early next year. The reserves are not being replaced either. In my conversations with some people in the business, it is becoming common knowledge that decline rates have accelerated by as much as 29% in many nonconventional natural gas fields in the western states (8% of national supply). This has been completely overlooked so far by petroleum analysts. The long touted economic recovery is as good as on ice.

Black BladeUSD Gives Up Gains - Falls Lower#778676/10/02; 04:55:47

The US Dollar falls below 111 after having made gains overseas against major currencies. This morning some analysts reported that they expect the US Dollar to fall further while the Euro is expected to gain to 96 cents in short order. The Japanese government intervention last night appears to have fallen short while the Yen is now gaining on the US Dollar. Quite a "flip-flop" in the currency markets so far. Even the Rand reversed trend this morning to about R9.90 to the US dollar. However, Gold is still lower after TOCOM selling last night.

- Black Blade

ZenideaHere I go again , Hydrogen gassing on about unit velocity.#778686/10/02; 05:04:55

And to carry on from msg 77762 I brought two small bags of rough NZ greenstone Nephrite/Jade ( illegal to export and so they say, therefore worthless internationally ) from a mate in the South Island with that cash and promptly sold that off to school friends and ended up with two oz of NZ/AU approxiamately 3 weeks later :). Until the students got wind and or realised that they couldn't flog it off
even way under par to the jewelers that were peddling it
off to the adult public, dispite the quality comparison.
Friends I often envisage some poor blighter in India
pounding away on an ounce of Au on goats skin from sun up to sun down by hand in order to get the standard micron
spread to make the 25 sheets 3 and half inches square
24 carat book that is sold for some 15.00 and consumately sold again for 50.00 in Aussie.
OK so if there are any mathematicians among us, you tell me whose making the bigger profit.
Immmmm solar panel 25.00, would it be cheaper in the long run to raise the temperature of one kilogram of H20 one degree centigrade in the long run rather the oxidizing the human body ?. Oh WTO rules :).
Hehe I used to frequent the pre and primary school students through church and pass on these sheets for free
and dispite the hidden msg , would watch their learning experience as it dissapeard in their hands . WOW !!

barnacle billYGM re:#77848#778696/10/02; 05:15:33

NWO Conspiracy

The names you mention are all arms of the same octopus.IMHO.
Canuck@ R. Powell#778706/10/02; 06:29:30

Thank you Sir.

So futures close the last day of the month and options expire on the second Friday of each month. Are there any exceptions?

I'm trying to get a feel for the paper expirations and 'spot' and thus to mining stock. It seems to me that the '325/328/330 line' is being defended quite sucessfully at this point. Once options expire I feel that we may head higher.

I mentioned in a previous message that the risk/reward factor was too great for me beyond unhedged mining shares. I hope you saw Hamilton's essay a couple weeks ago; the 'pyramid of gold investing'. Leverage is such a wonderful/dangerous thing isn't it?

Thanks again for the info, good luck with your 'bets'.


Black BladeGE Default Insurance Soars as Banks Rush to Hedge Bonds, Loans#778716/10/02; 06:42:04


New York, June 10 (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Co.'s efforts to restructure its $241 billion debt are fueling demand for insurance to protect lenders in case of a default. GE has its detractors. Investors, including Pimco's Bill Gross, manager of the world's largest bond fund, have raised concern about GE debt. Gross' firm sold its $1 billion of GE commercial paper because he said GE's debt level was ``extreme.''

Black Blade: GE's debt risk has increased. This large conglomerate has been hammerd by none other than bond king Bill Gross who questions the quality of the corporations debt.

Black BladeDecline and Fall of the U.S. Dollar#778726/10/02; 06:50:20


While few economists predict the U.S. dollar is in any danger of losing its cachet as the world's reserve currency, the fact is history is littered with currencies that have attained cult status only to be unceremoniously dethroned.

In one of the more lighthearted and interesting reports in the glut of research that has been published on the greenback in recent weeks, Paul Donovan, senior economist at UBS Warburg in London, argues there are discernable threads that link each currency's eventual retreat -- the kind of current account deficit that now blights the United States and trade disputes being the most glaring.

Black Blade: The point is that all currencies eventually fail -- except gold that is.

Black BladeThe Erosion Of Confidence #778736/10/02; 06:57:32

Risk and uncertainty looms large in today's economy


June 17 issue — A decade ago, the idea that Japan might default on its government debt was a crackpot notion. Since World War II, no major industrial country had repudiated any of its debt, and Japan—the world's second largest economy and a technological leader—seemed the least likely candidate to do so. No more. All the bond-rating agencies have downgraded Japan's debt; recently, Moody's lowered its ratings several notches. The odds of default are rising.

Black Blade: The last I heard, Japanese debt was on par with Latvia. "Interesting" end to the world's second largest economy. No wonder the Japanese government is scuttling the Yen.

Black BladeShanghai Gold Exchange ''most likely'' to open in June#778746/10/02; 07:12:26


The Shanghai Gold Exchange is most likely to be opened in June, following ongoing delays due to drawn out discussions over a tax issue, a source at the exchange told Platts Monday. The source said: "There's still no firm date set for the official launch, but it is very likely to happen later this month. The longer than expected time needed is mainly because of the lengthy and detailed considerations over the value-added tax issue on gold transactions, as more time is required to discuss the details with the State Administration of Taxation of China and the People's Bank of China." The government has proposed a 17% value-added tax on gold transactions to increase its revenues. The exchange was originally scheduled to open in early 2002.

Black Blade: A 17% VAT sounds a bit steep to me. Hopefully that will not scare off many potential investors. Still, it should do well as Chinese trade Renimbi for Gold.

Max RabbitzSlingshot, regarding your 77824 yesterday#778756/10/02; 07:33:27

Sorry to be so late responding. I lost Internet access last night so spent some time reading the updated "Nuclear War Survival Skills" by Cresson H. Kearny. This is an excellent and very readable book that is also found on the internet (above).

The exoskeletons of insects would provide no protection to high energy gamma radiation, similar to X-rays, only perhaps to Alpha particles. Alpha is not the problem. Your skin stops most. Only a large mass like lead or several feet of soil can block gamma radiation from fallout. Amphibians may be more sensitive to chemical pollution but not gamma rays. In fact, if they are under several feet of water or buried deep in mud they may do better. Insects survive because of their fantastic reproductive rate. A few always survive by chance and large numbers provide ample opportunity for new mutations. It is expected that large numbers of carrion flys will be present several weeks to months after a major attack. Better put some insect repellent and netting in those survival supplies.

If you are looking for a canary look to yourself. The initial symptoms (50 Rads) are nausea, vomiting, headache, dizziness, and a general feeling of illness. However, some of these symptoms can also be induced by emotional stress. You can make an accurate radiation meter at home (Appendix C) for little cost. I'm working on this. The problem with buying the old Civil Defense meters is that they need to be calibrated. The homemade device can be used to calibrate them. Yesterday, for my canary, I bought a geiger type meter of pocket size that measures up to 1 Rad per hour. This is a relatively low dose. A 350 Rad total exposure gives a 50% chance of being lethal. The human body can repair an amazing amount of damage if given a chance.

Also, I remember a Professor of Radionucleonics (not an MD) telling me some years ago another method of protection against ionizing radiation. Alcohol. A large amount of alcohol consumed internally. Sops up free radicals or something like that. I don't think you'll find that in Kearny's book.

Hoping for the best
Preparing for whatever

JimboFor all you Rukeyser fans#778766/10/02; 08:13:10

Louis Rukeyser's June newsletter carries a front-page story that asks "Given all the problems overhanging more-conventional investments right now, one might wonder why gold hasn't done much better in such a made-to-order morass." Rukeyser doesn't exactly put down gold as an investment; rather, he points out that "Gold has simply not been a rewarding holding in recent decades...." (Ironically, he admits he bought gold in 1982 for $298/oz, then sold it two years later for $550!)

But I've asked myself the same question: What's holding back gold's rapid growth as an investment? We've broken through several resistance levels this year, that's for sure. But my impression is that it's getting tougher each time, and that $330 presents a formidable challenge. Some of you have said, in so many words, that it's a good thing gold's advances haven't progressed too quickly. If it had, you've said, it could be counter-productive.

Anyone think gold is moving along at the "right" pace? Or is Rukeyser's question regarding why gold hasn't done much better a valid one?

PizzJimbo#778776/10/02; 08:20:11

Gold's doing just fine.
Cavan ManJimbo#7787806/10/02; 08:47:15

Buy as much as you can understand whether 5 or 50 percent.
kramrichJimbo. Nothing goes straight up.#7788006/10/02; 08:54:33

Front month gold at about $310 would be healthy. More normal market with a solid base and a good place to start the next leg to higher gold.
sectorThe Japanese Problem...Cabal's Effectiveness#7788106/10/02; 08:54:45

The Erosion Of Confidence
Risk and uncertainty looms large in today's economy
June 17 issue — A decade ago, the idea that Japan might default on its government debt was a crackpot notion. Since World War II, no major industrial country had repudiated any of its debt, and Japan—the world's second largest economy and a technological leader—seemed the least likely candidate to do so. No more. All the bond-rating agencies have downgraded Japan's debt; recently, Moody's lowered its ratings several notches. The odds of default are rising.
The common-sense interpretation is one that has the Japanese seeking stability away from government financial vehicles such as bonds etc. Gold lurks just off the radar screen, waiting for the next inevitable drop in the yen.

The elders still have over $600 Billion in uninsured savings exclusive of real estate holdings. Any appreciable fraction of that amount converted to gold will crush all the central banks of the world.

This is the stuff of Fed nightmares.
@Jimbo: The last three times gold has been sent backwards the drop has been substantially LESS each time. This reveals that the cabal is LOSING strength in its ability to move gold downwards. We should not expect these criminals to go down with first exhausting every last bar of US treasury gold and any other bars they might con away from unsuspecting G-10 members.

The simple fact remains...if they HAD sufficient metal to drop gold back to $300 they would have already done so, long before all of today's positive financial press.

I used to think they were implementing a rationed, disciplined plan of retreat upwards to some reasonable level [Say $400] longer. The pattern of JPM/CITI gold derivatives in the last OCC report shows that they are being forced to ADD gold derivatives [Most likely in the form of even more "Loans" from G-10 dupes]. They can never get the gold back that they have already loaned, but they keep the over-strapped consumer...borrowing more and more adding credit card debt...thinking somehow that it all can be erased by some kind of "Bankruptcy thingy" [Official devaluation in this case].

kramrichScary!#7788306/10/02; 09:00:10

U.S. Says It Thwarted Dirty Bomb Attack by
Al Qaeda
Mon Jun 10,10:39 AM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Attorney General John Ashcroft ( news - web sites) on Monday said
U.S. authorities had prevented an attack on the United States with a radioactive dirty bomb by
capturing an Al Qaeda operative.

"We have captured a known terrorist who was exploring a plan to build and explode a
radiological dispersion device, or dirty bomb, in the United States," Ashcroft said in a
televised announcement from Moscow that was monitored in Washington.

Novice BearMax Rabbitz #77821 - Heirloom Seeds and genetic diversity#7788406/10/02; 09:00:49

Max Rabbitz and all,

Your comment regarding food crops that "genetic diversity now resides in seed banks" is probably very true.
I am not an expert on these matters.

However, one of the items stored by many for Y2K preps
was non-hybrid or heirloom seeds (which have genetic

If you do a web search for this, I'm sure you'll find
several sources of these seeds, I have.

I think it is a prudent thing to stored seeds for food
crops in case food supplies are interrupted. Having
non-hybrid seeds is the best since you can save the seeds
and use it for next years crop.

I've read that many of the heirlooms are more pest and disease restistant than hybrid varieties, especially if you choose one commonly grown in your region.

--Novice Bear

CoBra(too)@ Canuck - Re Trading Halts -#7788506/10/02; 09:39:32

Bet on K and ECO coming together - however, no idea as to how TVX may fit in.

Otherwise, pretty heavy bloodbath at the au-metal miners as the POG stages another day of mild consolidation.

Can u say - nice to have another day to pick up some more physical at bargain basement prices - in terms of any fiat paper out there? - or are you fretting about your paper gold mine position? - I'm neither ... just nicely unhedged and secure in my insurance...and I still buy some paper on dips for the fun of it.

As an old observation around the forum here a Dr. Heinrich Leopold has expressed the phenomenon of increasingly net gold exports from the US. These exports have started to surpass, both domestic production, scrap and dis-investment by the public.

The supply for the increasing Net-Gold Exports from had to come from a major hoard! And as the total net exports - not being covered by above explanations - may have reached an amount between 8-10.000 tons of gold ...

Oh well, just another one of those coincidences we've got to live with - or do we and you? cb2

CoBra(too)RE -Net Gold Exports - from the US of A#7788606/10/02; 10:00:51

This phenomenon of Net Gold exports started to turn negative in the late 80's - and only surpassed 8.000 tons in the last year or so! ... I hear!

Without implying anything more than James Turk's great findings about SDR's. Or, is it better their hitherto widely unknown SDR-Certificates. A potential clone to the lending substitute of the last resort.

... and without opting to go into further details, as all, who have been following this unfolding drama may be well aware - these kind of figures - leave not much doubt as to the origin of the stash, filling the void...

thank you - cb2

CamelEye for an eye#7788706/10/02; 10:12:29

What prevents one of these shadowy hedge funds from taking a large short position in the mining stocks , then dumping their 5000 long contacts on the COMEX knowing in advance the certain impact it will have on the POG and the panic it will cause among the mining stock holders .Many of the mining stocks droped 8% in just one day. Thats not bad for a days work. Then the hedge funds can go back long on the stocks buy back the contracts and let the POG rise again giving the sheep a haircut over and over.

It might be a bit premature to declare the death of the internet just yet. Public Television did a piece outling how South Korea has the most advanced high speed fiber system in the world. The whole country is wired and everyone is using broadband.This was the vision of companies such as Quest and Global Crossing that borrowed so much money to lay all that fiber band width that now sits idle .Probably the new " killer application" that could drive the next wave of consumer spending, will be the "video phone," once the stuff of science fiction, it is now a reality with a new $1000 computer and a little clip on video camera

Its just that nasty little war in the Mideast keeps getting in the way.

It was good of al Quida to pre-announce this next series of attacks. Seems to me if they go after the Statue of Liberty our response should be to take out that big rock or meteorite or whatever it is "the Kaaba," that they are so proud of. That would really stir them up wouldn't it.They dont care about their own lives , they dont have a country to retaliate against, the only thing they care about is their worthless religion. An eye for an eye ,thats the only language they understand.

Nice to see so many Australians on the forum. I beleive I am correct in saying that Austrailia has the largest population of wild camels in the world, about 20 000 living wild in the outback , that were decendents of camels brought over by the early the 1840s. In fact since the genetic pools have been seperated for so long ,the Australians now routinely sell camel sperm to the Arabs because the Arab camels are too inbred and the Australian variety is a little bigger and sturdyer.

Cavan Man@ CB (too)#7788806/10/02; 10:30:16

Kind sir; do you mean to say the cubbard is bare and bereft of the precious kind? Perhaps the IMF may yet sally forth with their good intentions? (I'm betting otherwise.)
Tommy PThey hit us good today gents!#7788906/10/02; 11:04:27

I figure $310.00 then it should rise, however the summer months are upon us, this may be a long drawn out affair back to the high 320's, comments??
Gandalf the WhiteOOPS !!!!! #7789006/10/02; 11:07:50


SiochainRussia gold sales#7789106/10/02; 11:08:17

I have been away so not sure if this was posted....Russia apparently sold 10 percent of holdings in May

Hmmm...Profit taking...or a little GWB jaw boning

darkhorseok, so what?#7789206/10/02; 11:13:42

1.333Moz only comes to approximately 40 tons...not all that much really.
JimboWhy the silence?#7789306/10/02; 11:35:56

Why isn't anyone commenting on gold's $5 drop today, or the fact that just about all gold stocks are getting beaten down? Durban at this hour, for instance, is down where it was in early May. Gold Fields, Gold Corp., Harmony and others are having real problems. too. I don't see anything spectacular going on in the markets, particularly the Nasdaq, to justify this decline. Are those who short gold simply going crazy, or are there larger forces still at work as a follow up to last week's big sell-offs? Comments, please.
Canuck@ Cobra(too), Jimbo#7789406/10/02; 11:45:55

Heard about a 3 way announcement upcoming, TVX, Kinross and Echo Bay.

I thought I was going to be Mr. Wise Guy and loaded up on Friday after the little pullback. I am being taken to the cleaners today LARGE. Physical remains physical.


Griffon5RE: Jimbo's Question#7789506/10/02; 11:50:42

The $5.00 drop in gold and the accompanying correction in a number of gold stocks is actually good to see. If you look at the charts of DROOY or SSRI or any number of other gold / Silver stocks, they were vertical. While I like to see things go up, the pace was un-sustainable. Now, if you believe we are in a PM bull market, ( I do ) this is a healthy correction that needs to take place. Relax, gold and PM in general have everything going for them.
kramrichJimbo#7789606/10/02; 11:56:25

Jimbo ask yourself if you would you be a buyer now if you had sold your shares near the top. If the answer is yes, then why sell now? The market is the same only your perception is different.
JimboRe: kramrich#7789706/10/02; 12:11:58

Actually, I'm such an optimist that I bought DROOY today (wish I had waited until late morning before making the purchase). You're right, corrections such as the ones we've experienced last week and today are healthy. But too many corrections over too long a period will discourage folks from buying gold, and many will leave the gold market. That's what makes it hard to relax. (Plus, I hate to lose money!)
GraefinI don't know about you...#7789806/10/02; 12:14:31

But today has put me BIG in RED!!! In more ways than one!
WaveriderSpot's in the Doghouse today#7789906/10/02; 12:36:51

Graefin/Jimbo...I agree with Camel - the shorts are having a great day today. Think long-term - there will be corrections and volatility and as Mikal said a while ago - we should expect'll get worse. I don't trade paper, I'm a buy 'n hold it kinda gal...easier on the nerves, and with days like today I just hang on for the ride. Just remember the long list of fundamentals in Golds favor - those haven't changed one iota today. To everything there is a season...and Gold will have its time.

BTW - Camel...I've learned a tremendous amount on this forum, everything from the merits of physical oil baboon calls...but I never dreamed I'd learn about the international trade of camel sperm...interesting little tidbit!

jayzeeSell PM Stocks, and Buy Gold#7790006/10/02; 12:42:37

Gold is being manipulated by PAPER!! They sell paper contracts on the way up, then flood the market with huge numbers of contracts and panic the buyers. Most buyers sell back to the banks at a loss, which is profit for the dealers, and keeps down the gold price.

The only way we can beat them is to reduce our stock holdings (PM), and buy (take delivery and store safely) solid gold. They can't print up extra real gold.

I plan to put my money where my mouth is, and sell (at a profit) a company that has recently merged, and buy some Gold Eagles.

kramrichJimbo#7790106/10/02; 12:48:33

If you are familiar with Fibonacci numbers many folks will be looking at 50% and 62% retracements off the recent highs from their lows. Might give you some peace of mind to have an idea where the market may be going.
Black BladeThree Canada gold firms merge to create powerhouse#7790206/10/02; 12:53:33


TORONTO, June 10 (Reuters) - Three Canadian mid-tier gold miners are joining forces to create one of the world's 10 biggest gold producers, with a market capitalization of more than $2 billion and annual output of 2 million ounces at a cost of less than $200 an ounce. Kinross Gold Corp. (Toronto:K), one of the stars in a recent rally in Toronto gold stocks, said it was offering 0.52 of a Kinross share for each share of Echo Bay Mines Ltd. (Toronto:ECO) , a 23 percent premium over the 30-day trading average. It was offering 0.65 of a Kinross share for each TVX Gold Inc. (Toronto:TVX.TO) share, a 47 percent premium over the 30-day average.

Black Blade: The consolidation continues in the mining industry. Gold is still holding up though only down about $10.00 from its high of about $330 an ounce.

sectorGold is Usually Hammered Just Ahead of Bad General News#7790306/10/02; 13:17:47

...Which would tend depress the SMs

So...Perhaps the timed release of the terrorist plan to detonate a nuke [Probably in NYC] is a set-up to re-introduce folks to the idea of deterrence...and a lot of new -old 1950's angst.

In any event, the US currently has no terrorist nuke retaliation plan, no deterrence policy...and Washington is catching e-mail hell over that fact. Next Sunday's talking heads will reveal whether the US has made critical retaliation decisions to thwart would-be nuclear terrorists. We'll see.

Reporters have already begun to connect the dots that we are stuck between angering our oil-supplying "Friends" and targetting them for harboring terrorists as they do, with a wink and a nod. Reporters still haven't figured out that we have abandoned the concept of deterrence thereby acepting the inevitability of nukes in the and there...once in a Dick Cheny has implied. Hey, can't we just get along?

BTW 9/11 was orchestrated with NUMEROUS aircraft hijack cells operating independently of one another. Today's announcement regards ONE terrorist nuke cell with ONE guy. Where are the others in his cell? Where are the other cells?

Not to worry though...your crack FBI is at work on this one...DOJ has just now unleashed the snarling dogs of the FBI so they can for the FIRST a google search on the internet. THAT will bring Al Qaeda to it's knees! Head of the galloping google-search pack is the Joe bag-of-doughnuts FBI agent who punted on Moussaoui-Gate. Promotion, he got. One now supposes that he can afford to upgrade to an all Krispy-Kreme array of glistening, designer doughnuts.

Sleep tight.

Oh yes, almost forgot with all this terrific national security news, are you stocking up on more you-know-what today?

AristotleJimbo #77897, spoken like a true bug#7790406/10/02; 13:17:57

I can't count the times I've seen this sorta thing:

"I'm such an optimist that I bought DROOY [aka A.HOLE] today (wish I had waited ------ too many corrections over too long a period will discourage folks from buying gold, and many will leave the gold market."

The vibe I'm getting from your posts is that your idea of buying Gold is buying a share of ownership for a hole in the ground. The same leverage that puts you in gravy on the upside will eat your lunch on the downside, potentially washing away your fortune at the margins throughout the journey higher.

The "volatility" you're seeing now is nothing, and contrary to your thought, serious movements up and "corrections" down won't discourage people from buying Gold. It will drive the sensible ones to it (metal) as they find the leverage too hot to handle.

For those new to the scene, here's a few reasons mine ownership is no substitute for Gold ownership:

-- Management can change from good to bad, bad to worse
-- Workers may strike
-- Social unrest may hinder production
-- Political powers may tax or nationalize key natural resources
-- Environmental impact awareness/regs may hinder future prospects
-- Natural hazards like flooding or earthquake my hinder production or damage facility
-- Finally and most importantly: Each new day of production brings an orebody and the life of the mine one step closer to exhaustion/death. Thus, opportunities for growth in this industry are grossly over-imagined.

Owning Gold (metal) gives protection in worse-case scenarios as financial/trading institutions or infrastructure breaks down. But on a more positive and realistic note, metal ownership gives exposure to upside potential from increasing affluence as the global economies grow and money is "printed" faster than new Gold can be found to feed into the demand for (what should be -- Free Gold) uninflatable savings.

On that note I refer you to Belgian's excellent series of posts yesterday, expecially

Belgian (06/09/02; 11:02:37MT - msg#: 77813)

Bravo, Sir Belgian. Bravo.

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

sectorTalk About Corruption#7790506/10/02; 13:35:29

From Railroad Cars to Railroading Cover-Ups

Senator Feinstein, 1999 US Customs Corruption Cover-UP,
Tons of drugs in Pressurized Rail Cars, Huge Distribution Network.
Senator Seen With Customs Official Suspect on his Yacht.

White House Staff Received CIPRO Before First anthrax attack.

FBI Under Withering Fire for Moussaoui-Gate,
Director Can't Manage to Fire Even One Agent

Catherine Ann Fitts Exposé of Enron/DOJ Cover-UP
Seven Basic Steps of All Investigations... All "Side-Stepped"

All this corruption is sapping the confidence of average Americans and seriously undermining confidence in government institutions. The Wall Street brokerage corruption mess just opens the latrine wider.

Rumor has dozens of FBI field agents rebelling and threatening to turn into whistle blowers and that Thursday's Home Land Security announcement was White House reaction to that field pressure.

Terrorist Investigation:

There may be a good reason that the FBI doughnut man who foot dragged on the Moussaoui/Al Qaeda investigation hasn't been fired yet. He may know too much to be fired. Perhaps there are numerous similar J.Edgar Hoover, chubby wannabees spread throughout the bureau, each one with a heavy briefcase of damning documents on a universe of official corruption to be used against superiors or Congress or Presidents or Wall Street their golden parachutes in case of an "Emergency"?

R PowellKramrich // Jimbo#7790606/10/02; 13:36:42

I saw your mention of Fibonacci numbers. There are many technical traders who buy and sell according to such figures. Some will go as far as to intentionally block out or avoid any fundamental information which, they feel, might bias their chart reading decisions. Because there are enough who so trade, the Fibonacci numbers' predictions become (imho) self-fulfilling prophesies.
As you might guess, with this opinion of technical analysis, I'm not very sure of myself when figuring the figures. Could you tell us what you see for the starting number, recent high and possible retractions?
I intend to invest a little in the yellow metal but only on the dips (a trick I learned from the dot com-ers) and would love to have a target.

Jimbo, patience my friend, patience. We are very likely in a multi-year bull market for gold, silver and many other commodities. The US dollar weakening against other currencies will improve export numbers on corn, soybeans, cotton, orange concentrate, etc. There will be down days but higher lows and higher highs over time. Remember the Carpenters? "We've only just begun."

Black BladeRe: sector - Al Qaeda Nuke Threat#7790706/10/02; 13:37:18

Doesn't anyone find it strange that no nuclear materials were found? This sounds like a ploy to convince Americans that they "must" give up freedom and liberty for their safety from some threat. Uncle Sam will protect us if we just give up freedom and become the government's eyes and ears (much like mainland China's block patrols) and watch for dissidents. I await the total repeal of the 4th, 5th, 8th and 10th admendments (not that law enforcement and justice pay much attention anyway). Perhaps we will eventually have "thought police". Apparently "we the people" must be "controlled" for our own good. We saw this coming for a very long time. Nothing new here. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

GraefinRich...#7790806/10/02; 13:39:37

My book came in I just have to start reading it!

AristotleI don't talk that way, honest!#7790906/10/02; 14:13:06

It's just that the 'X' key is eSpecially close to the 'S' key on my keyboard. Sheeeeeeeeeeeexh!!!


Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

Black BladeDubya calls for US Gestapo#7791006/10/02; 14:30:35


US President George Dubya Bush took to the airwaves last night in an appeal for the establishment of a new cabinet-level Department of Homeland Security, to keep us all safe and snug in our beds.

Black Blade: An interesting take on the new Washington power grab. Should go well with the new "Patriot Act". "Interesting Times"

kramrichR Powell#7791106/10/02; 14:39:13

I think Fibonacci numbers and Elliott wave analysis will apply more to mining stocks rather than the futures market at this point. In the futures market there are many fundamental reasons why POG will not act like share prices will in being manipulated into fitting Fib numbers. Longs in the futures market are less likely to get spooked by a retracement for one. Also as the POG drops more mining companies will cover their hedge books (ie... buying) helping to support the POG. ME conflicts, Indi/Pak , Enronitis, and the current landmine...Iraq, all will keep the shorts from pushing POG into their mold. I doubt we will see a 50% retracement in the futures market.

However, the mining shares are easily manipulated at the recent highs. 30 minutes before the close today many shares were lower by 15-20% for the day!. Shares were bought off the lows at the close. I'm sure the funds are enjoying the lower prices they are picking these stocks up at. Fibonacci numbers are easily incoporated into computer trading programs. As such there will be many buy signals at those numbers. Probably funds jumping into the market. Like you said its a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Rumsfeld is in Kuwait today. Hmmm?

YGMAristotle........& "All"#7791206/10/02; 14:40:31

Some "Golden Tidbits"

1- The amount of gold dissolved in the oceans is nearly ten million tons, which is about 180 times the total amount of gold dug in mines in the entire history of humanity

2- Gold is the most malleable and ductile of metals. It may be beaten into gold leaf as thin as 4 millionths of an inch --an ounce can be beaten out to 187 square feet. An ounce of gold can also be drawn into a wire more than 40 miles long. Gold is a good conductor of electricity, though not as good as silver or copper.

3- In the last 500 years, about 80,000 tons of gold have been taken from the earth. World reserves of gold economically recoverable by present methods may total only about 32,000 tons. Since gold is both durable and carefully guarded, most of the gold that has been taken from the earth still exists. Much of it has been buried again -- in underground vaults, where it is held in government monetary reserves. Approximately 45% of all the world's gold is held by governments and central banks for this purpose. Gold is still accepted by all nations as a medium of international payment.

4- Gold is widespread in low concentrations in all igneous rocks. It occurs mostly in the native state, remaining chemically uncombined. It often occurs in association with copper and lead deposits, and, though the quantity present is often extremely small, it is readily recovered as a by-product in the refining of those base metals. One-third of all gold is produced as a by-product of copper, lead, and zinc production.

5- Where gold occurs in higher concentrations, the deposits are of two basic types: hydrothermal veins, associated with quartz and pyrite (fool's gold); and placer deposits, that are derived from the erosion of gold-bearing rocks and appear in alluvium and stream beds. The origin of enriched veins is not known, with assurance, but theories contend that gold was carried to the surface from great depths in the earth's mantle, in partial solid solution, and later precipitated.

6- In the late 20th century four countries -- South Africa, Russia, the United States, and Australia -- accounted for two-thirds of the gold produced annually throughout the world. South Africa alone, with its vast Witwatersrand mines, produces about one-third of the world's gold.


*In the last 500 years, about 80,000 tons of gold have been taken from the earth. World reserves of gold economically recoverable by present methods may total only about 32,000 tons....So unless they can figure out how to refine Gold from Saltwater, the supply is finite, and over 2/3 has been mined already by present day capabilities....At the present 2500 to 2800 tons per year being mined we have about 12 years of worldwide Gold production left....Now does "Anybody" think that Gold will not become outrageously more valuable in our own lifetimes?????.........YGM

slingshotMAIL CALL#7791306/10/02; 14:43:52


The 1oz Silver Maple came today. What a Top Notch Coin.BEAUTIFUL! A mirror Image of Queen Elizabeth II and a wonderful engravement of Canadas Maple leaf on the back.
This is what are coinage should be made of. Artistry and value.
Thank you USAGOLD/CPM.

Canuck@ Aristotle#7791406/10/02; 14:49:56

Great line Ari,

"It will drive the sensible ones to it (metal) as they find the leverage too hot to handle."

I hope I wake up someday, the heat was way too much to handle today.

Canuck@ YGM#7791506/10/02; 14:59:06

"World reserves of gold economically recoverable by present methods may total only about 32,000 tons"

I assume this is at $300 US. Where does this information obtained? Do you know the 'economically recoverable' quantities at $400, $500 etc.?


YGMMore on Gold and Finite Quantities in Earth....#7791606/10/02; 15:08:56


Many, possibly most, geologists and mining engineers will
agree that the future gold supply of the world is limited, also
that many known deposits have been greatly depleted and some
wholly exhausted. This is true of those in the United States
and Europe. It seems unlikely that any major deposits com-
parable to those of South Africa will again be discovered. With
the possible exception of Siberia there are now few areas of the
earth's surface remaining to be explored, and with the advent of
the aeroplane there will soon be few nooks and corners of the
land surface which have not come under observation. As a
by-product or associate with other metals and ores the output of
gold is likely to continue large, but at best this quantity is
small as compared with that of the Transvaal and the combined
production of gold-lode mines in other parts of the world. It
is difficult, perhaps, for the public to understand that the once
famous alluvial gold deposits of California, Australia, and
Alaska were Nature's hoards, treasure-trove whose gold was
eroded from neighbouring rocks within the hills and mountains
of the district through periods of thousands of years and concen-
trated in surface accumulations easily accessible to man's simple
tools, chiefly the pick and shovel. These diggings, as they were
known, became quickly exhausted.

CoBra(too)CM - The Cupboard is bare?#7791706/10/02; 15:11:56

- Dear Sir,

CM - The cupboard may be full of cups - I only feel the cups are awaiting a re-fill of reality - while all, you and the rest of us is getting our fill of dirty nuclear enslavement - and the EU racing to foreclose on any financial overdose - as monetary transfer in itself is either Mafia-, Drug- or Criminal induced ... while the FED/CB's and in the end ... it is the establishment using the transferability of their TRILLIONS to the debasement of the millions of their MINIONS!

Comatose ... which cannot be systemized to the established Mafia, CIA, FBI and now Homeland Security - an outfit to spy on your neighbour and any other - oh brother, don't be shy to call it GESTAPO (Geheime Staats-Polizei - or Secret State Police) ...

Thank you friends of the former free to export and extort your liberty to the rest of the globe - and green mail all to gall the 90 plus % - to no Greenback's end ... and may you wonder later - why the other - a mere 90% - quit to acknowledge the division of labor ...

... I've got the licqour - (though)
the sheriff got it quicker (li'l Joe)

Oh, No - I don't care as the cupboard is bare and AG has
surrendered his last to latest blasphemy ... though, the last FED man walkin' will tell ya', how well his surrogate, though criminal and unconstitutional "legal tender" - a slander in itself has worked for almost a century.

- time to end the crime and debase the atrocity of the establishment's so called 'generosity' to set up a social wellfare state - where the the only wellfare is direct6ed to the state of expropriation.

Is the US, the EU and the few other "western (ex-industrial) States (pluralis - on purpose!) too lethargic to pick up the slack of the dollarized, even totalitarized
and lastly monopolized - globalized - total (in-)sanitized idiocy of shipping all reality -
being produc(e) a/o -ts-
of inferior price - as all prices are now totally hedged - ... The Irish may have their St. Patricks Day - now every day as they from here on know ... the Stew is not dependent on the cabbage, the lamb and/ or the potato(o).

Sorry - CM - here's to u - cb2 - tm-dew

Canuck@ YGM#7791806/10/02; 15:13:15

I have 're-arranged' your quote (I hope you don't mind) and it is now a poster on the wall (numerous now). It looks like this:

Gold: Supply/Demand Fundamentals

In the last 500 years, about 80,000 tons of gold have been taken from the earth.

World reserves of gold economically recoverable by present methods may total only about 32,000 tons....the supply is finite.

At present 2500 to 2800 tons per year being mined; we have about 12 years of worldwide gold production left.

Now does "Anybody" think that Gold will not become outrageously more valuable in our own lifetimes?


Are these numbers correct? I was trying to look at the numbers from an anti-gold perspective (people will ask questions) and saw one unusual number. If it took 500 years to mine 80,000 tons why will it take 12 to mine 32,000 tons? Simply from the 2500-2800 ton demand, yes? How is 32,000 derived?


kramrichArafat's "Explosion". Literally or figuratively?#7791906/10/02; 15:15:27

In a speech broadcast today, Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat threatened that if Israel does not retreat from PA-ruled areas that there will
be a "disastrous explosion that will impact stability of the whole world."

According to the Palestinian Authority's official news agency WAFA, in an address broadcast in Spain to an awards ceremony honoring EU Middle East
envoy Miguel Moratinos, Arafat claimed that "the situation in Palestine is at the edge of explosion."

Arafat warned that if Israel does not withdraw from Palestinian held territory immediately, "enabling our people to practice their legitimate rights of
establishing the independent Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital, the whole region will witness a disastrous explosion that will impact not
only the region but the stability of the whole world."

YGMCanuck...#7792006/10/02; 15:19:48

I think the 32,000 T figure is more concerned with known geological formations and rough estimates thereof than costs of recovery.... The numbers could be skewered either way. Once one tries to get Gold out of Salt water the cost seems prohibitive. But one must also consider we now can recover Gold from Leaching solutions with simple Charcoal filters, so we must not rule out anything being possible in the future.....The link above provided the fist info to Ari...I will post one other presently......YGM.
kramrichRumsfeld in Kuwait.#7792106/10/02; 15:21:59

Rumsfeld Talks With Troops in Kuwait

By Robert Burns
AP Military Writer
Monday, June 10, 2002; 2:37 AM


CAMP DOHA, Kuwait (AP) -- At
this desert encampment 35
miles from the Iraqi border,
Defense Secretary Donald H.
Rumsfeld told American troops
that state sponsors of terrorism
must be punished.

Without mentioning Iraq by
name, Rumsfeld said the
soldiers are on the front lines
against a dangerous foe.

"You are the people who stand between freedom and fear, between our
people and a dangerous adversary that cannot be appeased, cannot be
ignored and cannot be allowed to win," he told about 1,000 troops
assembled in an air-conditioned gymnasium on a 110-degree
afternoon Sunday.

Rumsfeld left little doubt he was aiming his words at Iraq, which he
often says is among nations that support international terrorist groups
and could help them gain access to weapons of mass destruction.


YGMMore on Gold facts....#7792206/10/02; 15:22:45


How gold is formed

Gold is widely dispersed in the Earth's crust in very low concentrations of 0.001 grams per tonne. For mining to be viable, gold needs to be concentrated between 2000 and 10,000 times (2 - 10 g/tonne) to form a gold deposit. Most gold mined in Australia today cannot be seen in the rock. It is very fine grained and mostly has a concentration of less than 5 grams in every tonne of rock mined.

Gold usually occurs in its metallic state, commonly associated with sulphide minerals such as pyrite, but it does not form a separate sulphide mineral itself. The only economically important occurrence of gold in chemical combination is with tellurium as telluride minerals.

Primary gold deposits form deep in the Earth's crust when hot fluids containing carbon and sulphur move upwards, dissolving gold and other ore components from the rocks through which they pass. These fluids travel along faults, fractures and other weaknesses in the rocks, carrying the gold in solution as a gold-sulphur complex. Around 5 to 10 km beneath the Earth's surface, the gold-bearing fluids react with iron rich rocks, causing gold to precipitate within pyrite crystals and in quartz veins.

Gold nuggets are derived from the break-up of exposed primary gold-rich veins, or 'grow' within the soil or weathered rock as gold is gradually deposited from the groundwater.

Secondary gold deposits are in the thick layer of weathered rocks blanketing much of Western Australia. Over the millions of years since primary gold deposits formed, the land has been uplifted and eroded in a continually changing climate. Under humid tropical conditions of 100 million years ago, primary gold was dissolved by rainwater and precipitated in horizontal layers just below the water table. About 15 million years ago, the climate became increasingly arid and the water table dropped. The gold dissolved in the saline groundwater and was carried downwards. During periods when the water table was stable, gold concentrated at this level. Changes in the position of the water table have resulted in a series of layers of concentrated gold.

Most gold deposits in Western Australia formed during the Archaean Era - more than 2,500 million years ago. Exceptions include the Telfer deposits which occur in rocks that formed 1,000 million years ago (late Proterozoic Era) and the Boddington deposit's secondary gold enrichment which formed about 35 million years ago (Tertiary Period).

Belgian@ Aristoteles and Jimbo#7792306/10/02; 15:43:00

If I only could figure out *** WHY *** so many people, strongly interested in Gold and its derivatives, are soooooo
" hesitant " when it comes to the point of Possessing the Physical !? Yes, "aversion" for Physical in Possession might have two (2) good (?) reasons IN THE PAST !!! :

1/ The 21 year decline of POG !

2/ The leverage on the paper-gold !

3/ Central bank selling hysteria !

But the past is something that "was". And today/tomorrow is something that will come. And that something is going to be completely "DIFFERENT" ! It is this Big Difference that is constantly argued/commented and elaborated here. There is so much other paper than goldpaper, floating out there with much more volatility and chances to make a fiat killing.
Why do goldbugs stick to this goldpaper without being interested in having/holding/possessing that very unique store of wealth ? There are trillions of $ opportunities for shorting and selling into the wind. But paper goldbugs remain glued to there exclusive yellow paper and keep on accumulating discomfort or even frustration when the ups and downs do remind them about the past 21 years of false take offs and crash landings !

Aristoteles, dear fellow knight, you must help me to understand "WHY" ! The 20% POG rise and/or a 6%/10% decline, provokes so much emotions here, simply because there is not refered to Physical in Possession but to the fivefold multiplications (moves) on the paper(mine)stuff.
All this would be great if part of these speculative rewards should automatically be exchanged for adding more to our universal store of wealth. GOLD INVESTMENT !!
But I'm afraid that this is not the case.

Eastern Gold-Holders are exactly doing this maneuver over and over again. They generate fiat with fiat (or labor/trade) and store/accumulate/ the excess confetti (profit) into GOLD.
Westerners naievely keep trusting the permanent depreciation of what they keep on calling calling fiat (virtual digits) as good as real money.

Why is buying and selling of Physical Gold, on a massive scale, such a remote and strange act ? Why do we first jump into any kind of totally unknown paper when buying/selling that well known and universal yellow precious should be such a "Normal" trade !? What is the "main" problem/obstacle here ? Taking 10% profit on a bond (trade) is a piece of cake...but profitably trading ounces of Physical Gold, seems almost an excentric deed ? How can we ever expect, westerners to "INVEST" in physical Gold, when trading Physical is not fully popularized ?

People do trade so many different tangibles with profit or loses...but Physical Gold trades remain an infinitesimal faction of those trades.

Another and Company, found the solution for ending this ungold reflexes before we start running out on the scarce underground available ! He found a way to set GOLD FREE !
He found architects who drafted a plan and a strategy to implement this plan. So that all perceptions on Physical holding would be washed away and replaced by a complete new approach towards Physical Gold ! Not for trading daily necessities but for common storage of ones wealth. As is done already for centuries by 30% of total population.

Yes it all is wrapped into the correct understanding of what exactly "FREE GOLD" means ! Free to be appreciated by the balancing masses and not an exclusive elitist affair !
A volontary shism of forces as wise selfcontrol and evaluation on monetary policies. Yes GOLD, Free Gold would be WON_DER_FULL as that ultimate "honest" tool to avoid repetitive and unavoidable monetary abuses.

Gold Advocates here, can do no more than argue why one should anticipate this evolution NOW ! Not only with dry theoretical considerations but much more intuitively visible on a long term POG chart. Relativate long term (only 30 years) and realize that Gold's valuation is rightout "obscene" as compared to what happened during these past very turbulent years.

Thinking very deeply on this and acting consequently on it, carries a very high probability of enormous succes. Elapsing time can be used to keep on generating more invest in Physical on a continious pace.
Nobody is in he possibility to know, "when" or exactly "how", this Golden eartquake will take place. But this isn't good enough reason for not anticipating what shall be.

Don't make the mistake/excuse...that this FREE GOLD will not happen during your lifetime ! Therefore, try to come to terms with the hughe magnitude of Total Bad Debt Worldwide and its DRAMATIC consequences, very soon to be experienced.
The Debt-Limits are within arms length !!! Reread TG's explanations on what happened with Gold/Interest Rates/US$ from 1971 onwards ! 1971 to 1980 was the COUNT DOWN of the hyperinflation rocket launch. Take off has been aborted in extremis. In 1999, a new count down has started ! This time, final launch can't be aborted anymore. Not necessarely a doom and gloom projection but rather a future where the much needed *monetary change/transition* will finally take place.

Sorry for the monotomy of my postings. Will take a few days off. Good night from Euroland.

R PowellBelgian#7792406/10/02; 16:03:50

Why? Leveraged Profit.
If one drinks milk with cereal in the morning can that one also drink a beer at the end of the day? Can one drink milk and beer? Are they mutually exclusive? Can one own physical and also paper assets? Why, oh why do you scream that ONLY physical is right???? I hold physical metal and paper assets. Does this condemn me as evil or stupid? Was I not right to buy for $175 an option that I sold six weeks later for $5500 (thanks Mr. Buffett!). This "paper" silver profit bought me, among other things, 200 silver eagle coins (and paid a pile of bills).
I bought my physical from the fine folks here. Excellent and friendly service!
However, I also hold paper positions. Why does this upset you so?? My life, my risk, my gain or loss.
Paper and physical!
Get you both-- if you like.

Belgian@ Sir Rich#7792506/10/02; 16:32:04

Not condemnation...not screaming, Sir ! Only my clumsy communication on how and why I changed into a Gold Advocate. And if this is disturbing, I do apologize sincerely to you and any other forumer/reader, for having done so.
Bulldogphysical vs. paper Belgian#7792606/10/02; 17:13:34

I hold both, but judging how my gold stocks took a hit today, I wonder about the paper. Usually paper goes up quicker and faster than physical and gives more leverage.
Since your postings proclaim a paper crash in the future I see your bias to physical. I share that bias, but everyone is entitled to their own "wisdom".

I think the big reason that most people don't buy physical is that it is just not convenient. One and only one,bank in my city of 800,000 sells gold maples. There is a local coin dealer where you can purchase bullion, but there is a high premium over spot. I would say that 99% of the public would have no idea where to buy physical, but since they are hounded by their brokers to participate in the great gold run, they buy stocks.

If you purchase more than $1,000 worth of gold in Canada, the seller must report your particulars to the Federal gov't
due to money laundering laws. Why should the average investor go through all that crap? If the investor actually does do his own research and arrives at this site, then he will be able to have another source for his physical purchases.

None of my friends buy physical gold. They may concur with me that it is "insurance", but there are no sexy gains like the stock market. Having acquired physical for some time and I continue to do so, I doubt if I will ever sell it. Why would I sell my physical for paper? If gold goes to the moon as you suggest, then I suppose I will be able to trade
the gold for any possession I would want, but at my age, I have most of the toys I would ever want.

Don't be so hard on people. The educational process takes

Cavan ManTo: Belgian#7792706/10/02; 17:19:50

It is hard to figure isn't it? Know something else I can't understand. The GATA bunch especially Murphy who have done so much for the cause; if the gold and associated derivative markets are as potentially lethal as they suggest, why so much talk and otherwise promotion of mining stocks? If those markets are half as fouled up as GATA maintains than I would think the only antidote would be physical. Now, I have supported GATA, love the bunch and do own one Jr. in large measure. Therefore, don't shoot the messenger!
R PowellBelgian // forum#7792806/10/02; 17:49:31

Thanks and I believe I also owe you an apology as, after rereading, I don't see enough advocating of physical only to justify my rant.
Also, I'd love to see the masses of common citizens buying and holding gold as you advocate (and silver). It wouldn't take much, percentage-wise, of investment capital to really shock the fiat (political) system.
However, I don't think it can happen in a vacuum, without mining stocks and exchanges. The POG is connected to so many different variables ranging from political currency manipulation to basic supply/demand figures. Discouraging those investors interested in stocks or commodity trading from participating here will severely limit our membership and perspective. The story of gold and the search for wider understanding is not served, but restricted, by dissuading the exchange of information pertaining to the world gold markets, including stocks and exchanges although I realize intensive analysis of individual companies belongs on stock forums.
Uponroof is campaigning to spread gold information by refering investors here. Let us welcome them with information and gentle persuasion toward physical buying but let's do this without totally disparaging all other forms of investment.
Concerning paper investments, if the dollar risks overwhelm, then certainly physical is the correct choice. Most financial analysts advocate diversification. Why not?
Physical and paper, peaceful co-existence
Security and risk, balanced any way you like!
Not investment advice but I'll be buying the dips!

JimboIn response to Aristotle#7792906/10/02; 18:38:54

Buying physical isn't always a viable option, especially for those who draw a partial income from their IRAs. As Bulldog pointed out (#77926), physical just isn't practical or convenient, especially when it comes to storing, insuring and working with local banks. (I hope you, Black Blade and others who regularly buy physical can make a good argument to counter what I just said.)

For those reasons, as you stated, I buy "a share of ownership for a hole in the ground." You're right, I'm learning that by so doing I'm subject to having my lunch eaten on the downside. That's the reality, unfortunately, for me and others like me who are in this position.

That said, this is the first time in nearly six months of investing in gold stocks that I've been hit really hard. On the other three occasions, there's always been a fast recovery, the lost money was made up, and I moved ahead. Someday, I hope my gold stocks will grow in value so that I can cash them in and do what you recommend: buy physical. At that point, I hope to retire.

Your posts--and wisdom--about purchasing physical are excellent. I'd suggest, however, that you dispense additional thoughts and ideas to help investors such as me learn how to negotiate these tough times...and endure. After all, our stock purchases are helping increase the value of your physical.

mikalRe:Exchanges and Stocks#7793006/10/02; 18:39:02

It will be most interesting to see the aftermath on the Exchanges, including Comex. I share FOA's beliefs that he profferred here and on the Gold Trail, and similar opinions on this subject posted over the years. Aside from the many risks of stock ownership, the obvious case for a fast cascading sequence of defaults, trading suspensions, exchange collapses & closures, restructurings, bank and corporate bailouts & bancruptcies, etc., is too compelling. Couple this with systemic detioration in the world financial system, terrorist threats, wars, and other risks.
A CanadianMY TWO CENTS#7793106/10/02; 18:44:21

Physical gold is not an investment. It is a foolproof store of wealth. Always there if needed. (hopefully never).
Completely immune from gov't, banksters, lawyers, partners, ex-spouses and others who seek to drain you. It allows one to have true financial security. Period. Accept no substitutes.
It should never be sold. (negates entire exercise). It is the family "house". I hope for many generations to live in it for this house will never crumble.
However....we live in a credit created paper world. As repulsive as it may be , it's still the only game in town. You gotta play so play well. You still need fistfulls of dirty fiat to buy food, pay rent and purchase PHYSICAL.
Why not parlay knowledge of gold into stock profits? I did. It's no worse than any other method of fiat accumulation.
Fiat to live. Gold for life. Pretty obvious I think.
I check my goldstock prices every day. I NEVER check the price of my physical. I only hound the woman I think might be cheating on me....

slingshotMax Rabbitz#7793206/10/02; 18:44:30

Bugs and Rads

Thank you for the info and will check out Kearnys book.
On exposure to rads is simular to mil specs. Two hundred max daily exposure for work and Four hundred for hotspot cleanup but it had very low exposure time. Have read some on free radicles. They have a connection to cancer. There was talk of a cure in the area of research.
Thanks again Max.

mikalRe: Stocks#7793306/10/02; 18:53:25

Another risk in holding paper is waiting for your coins to show up on the market. The price will be higher too. Just ask the wolf- "Toooo Daaa Moooooooon". Someone posted an excellent list of gold mine cons vs. pros today. I add this coin price and availability. And others: Windfall profts taxes, capital gains taxes, broker fees, production (mine output) controls and restrictions. One of the reasons I expect them to limit US mine output, and possibly other countries, if nationalizing the mines isn't done, is to make their gold holdings more valuable, both official and private. Official holdings can help to offset the debt of a large trade deficit and budget deficit.
YGMRich....P.#7793406/10/02; 18:54:00

Worth a Mention??

Quite possibly when we get these seemingly diffent opinions as to Physical Hoards vs Paper Trading (oftentimes done to acquire Physical) we tend to forget age or financial worth differences in those advocating either preference. I would imagine for those with already acquired wealth one would only be looking to protect it without further risk and hoping to see POG at realistic levels in future....Many of us, and I'm one myself, still have alot of earning to do before we reach that personaly determined level of Financial security, so we take some risk and acquire a steady (hopefully) however small reserve of Physical Ag or Au as we go....I must say as a steady monotonous advocate of physical, if I had the understanding and resources to play futures, I'd be there, guns a blazing.... For I'm a long way from yesterday's reality when it comes to net worth today!

PS: if you ever want to give any free advice how to get in the game, get Randy to give you my email. Mining physical cost me a small fortune and I would be game to risk a bit more to get some back from the Paper Pushers.....YGM.

mikalRe: Paper #7793506/10/02; 19:08:17

A poster here or next door made note of the likelihood of mine takeovers. Of mines affected by drastic government regulations like crippling taxes, output restrictions, land reclamation and rezoning. Certain politicians and banking institutions are known to have large blocks of shares that could become controlling shares, a controlling interest. Crippled mines are prey to merger, acquisition or closure.
YGMDENVER FIRE & USA Gold Staff/Offices....#7793606/10/02; 19:09:24,1413,36%257E23447%257E664714%257E,00.html

***Keep us posted...we may have to volunteer for the fire fighting to keep you folks in business. Are you near the danger area???...YGM

Residents flee blaze
By Jennifer Hamilton
Associated Press Writer

Monday, June 10, 2002 - Updated 4:30 p.m. - A wind-driven wildfire closed in fast on Denver today, and authorities said up to 40,000 people might have to be evacuated from their homes along the southwestern edge of the metropolitan area.
The 61,000-acre fire roared to within 10 miles of residential neighborhoods, spreading toward Denver at about a mile an hour.

Firefighters were pulled off the lines in front of the fire because it was too dangerous.

"They just cannot see the front of this fire because of the smoke," said U.S. Forest Service spokeswoman said Barb Masinton.

Nearly 500 homes and several campgrounds about 50 miles southwest of Denver were evacuated on Sunday.

Masinton earlier told The Associated Press that an additional 40,000 residents had been ordered evacuated. But U.S. Forest Service spokeswoman Susan Haywood, who is Masinton's boss, later said Masinton misspoke. She said that it was possible 40,000 would have to be evacuated, but that no such order had been issued.

"It was our lifelong dream to live up here," said one of those evacuated, Carol Simone, whose home is about 30 miles south of Denver. "It isn't about the house, it's the woods and the environment. If that's destroyed I'm going back to Florida."


slingshotPhysical and Paper Gold#7793706/10/02; 19:23:59


I prefer to have physical gold. Mainly to take out of the hands of the manipulators. As long as we are in the paper game gold stocks would be good for some people to invest in if they knew the workings of gold stocks.

Yes. Freeing Gold one ounce at a time.

Max RabbitzNovice Bear and Genetic Diversity#7793806/10/02; 19:26:03

I don't want to get too far off topic but I applaud those who preserve the seeds of food plants from our past. Our germplasm banks hold many of these seeds but as with all things governmental there can be problems. One is that genetic diversity is dependent on continued funding. Seeds must be replanted every so many years as seeds slowly lose viability in storage. Storage itself is a problem. We tend to end up with seeds that are good as being viable after long storage in particular controlled conditions. Some genes are being lost. Every so many years the gene banks plant these seeds to produce new ones. They are planted in field plots not far apart. Cross pollination occurs.

Funding for gene banks is always low on the list of governmental priorities. I expect that during a fiscal crisis social security payments will come way ahead of genetic diversity on the priority list.


P.S. My opinion on the gold dollar price: Look at the one year chart. So far each upward spike has been brought under control, but at higher prices. The trend is your friend. Yet our long lost friend who is Friend of Another says paper can bring the dollar price lower and lower. I see his point. Just buy physical is very good advice.

YGMOff Topic...You Bet...#7793906/10/02; 19:27:42

But there are 586,000 acres of fires currently burning stateside, and only "Two" contained!
mikalRe: FOA, Friend of Another#7794006/10/02; 19:37:03

Max, I interpret his often repeated view that "paper can take the price lower and lower" to mean it is one of his possible trigger scenarios. Leaving paper behind, separating it from physical, first in Europe, and of necessity, everywhere. A rather detailed outline too, as I recall.
Black BladeMarket Wrap Up -- Puplava#7794206/10/02; 19:52:37


Looking at today's market, the possibility for a summer rally is playing according to cue. Funds and day traders were net liquidators of gold and silver equities today judging by a review of money flows all day long. Many speculators and mutual funds have accumulated positions since the beginning of the year. Mutual fund managers are now liquidating many of those positions either to handle fund redemptions, or to reposition for the summer rally pushed by Wall Street. Many of the indexes and individual stocks are now in oversold positions. The rally today is weakened by news of an uncovered terrorist plot to try and plant a bomb that would spread radiation upon detonation.

Investors and fund managers are now playing the rotation game by selling off shares of oil, natural gas, gold and silver shares, along with technology shares in anticipation of a market rally. Shares of retailers, consumer staples and consumer cyclicals are being accumulated in the hopes of an economic recovery for the second half of the year. But for reasons already elaborated in this column and in Storm Updates, those profit recoveries aren't going to be there. However, this is all part of the earnings game. Companies will announce earnings warnings this month and analysts will lower expectations and estimates to a point where companies will then be able to exceed expectations. That should give us a brief summer rally before the harsh realities of the fall start. The earnings game is playing according to the book. This will give investors one more chance to sell their overvalued stocks and pick up undervalued gold, silver, and energy equities from managers and investors who are now selling them.

Black Blade: This has been long expected. However, I would say that the sales of Gold and Silver have been due to in large part those institutions that are short the metal through exotic derivatives. They had the scare of their financial lives when Gold crossed over $330 an ounce. There are perhaps fund managers who have been sucked in by investment strategists like Abby Joseph Cohen who pump the markets with companies that tout nonexistent profits. It's good to be insured with Gold and Silver insurance. I see several people are lamenting the pull back in prices. I don't cry when I pay auto or any other insurance because that cash is gone. As far as Gold and Silver is concerned, I still have possession. I also have rolled shares for fun and profit over the last few years and all my remaining shares are essentially a free ride. Who says that you can't have both? I would like to add to my physical as the prices retreat -- however, this retreat is very minor as I think that the weak hands have just about given back all they can, and the price may consolidate in the $310 to $315 range before setting a floor for another run. There are just too many fundamentals in favor of gold. The overvalued US dollar is falling against the other world currencies (even with all the buying of dollars and selling of yen by the Japanese government), the potential of higher interest rates, possibilities of armed conflict, falling stock markets, rising consumer and corporate debt, falling corporate profits, rising unemployment, etc.

slingshotSilver, Stockpile out in two months#7794506/10/02; 20:12:49


mikalFrom USAGOLD Live News and The Scotsman#7794606/10/02; 20:17:04

Tuesday,11thJune 2002
The Scotsman
Euro rises as US waits
THE euro rose yesterday against the dollar and yen, as the former waited for improvement in the direction of US stocks.
The euro was 0.32 per cent higher on the dollar at 94.63 cents, and well off session lows of 93.90 cents after the market shrugged off surprisingly weak German retail sales link for more

Max RabbitzMikal #7794706/10/02; 20:39:02

The only reason I play any paper games is to turn it into physical.
sector@BlackBlade The Nuke "Plan"...that wasn't a "Plan"#7794806/10/02; 20:45:47

Well...the guy WAS talking about it!...We think...with his buddies...over a Pakistani rum and Coke...while watching some porno on the internet

All the media press about a dirty radiological bomb is high theater.

In order for Al Qaeda to get radiological materials such as Cobalt60 from US medical oncology treatment centers they first have to know what those centers are, where the source is located within the centers, how to shield themselves from the lethal radiation, how to overpower personnel, evade security cameras, operate the automatic equipment controls to expose the source, convert the metal into a powder[A real toughie] and finally assemble a bomb all before they inevitably die of radiation poisoning.

If these guys actually have a plan then they actually have a bomb.

A wild guess is that Pakistan gave them one of the 10-15 already built or they bought one from someone on the long list of starving physicists of the Former Soviet Union. The suitcase gun-style units are the worst since they are massively inefficient and leave huge quantities of powderized plutonium to "Crap-up" the target and a wide area downwind.

The real action in this theater is behind the act II, next weekend.

On the Sunday News shows expect Tim Russert to pop the $64 dollar question:

Does the US have a retaliatory policy regarding terrorist nukes? Voila! One will materialize, sufficiently vague so as to be worthless.

I hope the admin gets serious and at least lists the retaliation target cities, including our oil "Friends". If they go ballistic and cut off our oil, then we know what they were planning all along. Then we can blockade the Gulf of Hormuz until they rethink things a bit.

Along with some gold, one might want to start looking at some good 10 speed, mountain bikes....with soft saddles, hard tires and a big grocery basket.

Waverider"Don't Worry ~ Be Happy!"#7795006/10/02; 20:53:28

"As I have watched the financial news each morning over the last two years, I have noted a relentless barrage of hype regarding this market. The mantras and the clichés are always the same. Either the analysts or anchors are hyping a second half recovery or they are telling investors to stay in the market for the long run. Then there has been the earnings game played each quarter with company after company beating or exceeding analysts estimates -- even though business conditions were deteriorating. Nothing has changed since the bull market ended in March 2000. We are still dealing with the Pollyanna effect. There is a natural tendency in Americans to remain optimistic. After all, this is a country where any individual can still rise and achieve their dreams. We all want to believe that tomorrow will be better than today."

Waverider: Another good read from Puplava's "Storm Watch". Don't believe it's been posted...if it is for those of us who missed it.

PizzGold's Correction#7795106/10/02; 20:54:48

One thing I haven't seen posted anywhere regarding the correction is the fact that there is still a huge amount of short gold contracts that have yet to be covered. How low before a few start phase 2 of their covering. My guess not too far from where were at.

For those who are nervous, keep in mind that we still have excellant multi year fundamentals, the miners still haven't covered their hedge books, the derivitives players still have to offset short positions and/or cover leased gold.

With half the world a tinderbox right now, just how low do you think gold can go before just a few of these guys say "it's low enough, I'll cover what I can and take my lumps." It will be the better positioned small coverers first, then it will pick up speed.

No one in their right mind who is short gold under these circumstances is going to wait for sub 300 gold, or gold sideways for a couple months as it consolidates.

In gold stocks, the specialists and marketmakers tripped the sell stops today, so these stocks are now in stronger hands than they were before.


HipplebeckOn the subject of physical vs. paper#7795206/10/02; 20:58:28

It doesn't matter how much excitement there is over gold stocks going up, if people are not buying physical gold, gold stocks are worthless.
Hipplebeckthe dirty bomb#7795406/10/02; 21:09:37

The guy didn't have the materials to make a bomb, he didn't have a plan, all he has is a big mouth and small brain.
sourdoughThe us.$1 past/ present/ future#7795506/10/02; 22:04:01,2276,47890,00.html?

Wonder how many Asians will be reading this editorial tonite and the next few days?
Black BladeGold and the Dollar – Now There's a Relationship#780716/12/02; 00:10:40

Black BladeGFMS sees ECB gold sales up by 2005, mine output down #780726/12/02; 00:14:06


SAN FRANCISCO, Calif. June 11 (Reuters) - A reduction in gold mine production by 2005 should be more than offset by more bullion selling from European central banks, yielding a bit more supply in the market by that year, predicted precious metals research firm Gold Fields Mineral Services.

In a presentation of long-term forecasts at the London Bullion Market Association annual conference, held this year in association with the Gold and Silver Institutes, GFMS managing director Philip Klapwijk said he expected 1999s so-called Washington Agreement capping European central bank gold sales for five years to be extended in September 2004. He forecast that official sales would be between 550 tonnes and 700 tonnes in 2005, up from 504 tonnes in 2001.

Black Blade: That the Gold bears at GFMS even admit that mine supply will be lower is surprising. However, increasing Central Bank sales to compensate is not likely in my opinion and even if they do it doesn't matter as it should be very easily absorbed as this hostage Gold is liberated to the people. In light of the Dutch Central Bank's new found affection for Gold, I would say that increased sales by the rest of the Central Bank community is a tall order.

cocoCoco - many thanks#780736/12/02; 00:43:24

To our host USA Gold
, Belgium, Black Blade, Slingshot, YGM, R.Powell and many more regular contributors to this fine forum I wish to say "thank you". During the last three years you have saved me from selling my silver bullion out of sheer frustration when the price never seemed to increase and I never realized it was being manipulated and I have had my holding for 18 years. My knowledge of the metals market is very, very limited and I have learned so much since reading the posts on this forum. I have watched the gold price over this time rise and fall and feel that it won't take off until silver leads the way. Perhaps now with the extreme shortage of silver at the Comex the time is near. I have a news letters dating from 1984 where the silver price was predicted to rise by 800% !!! Another article I have from the same era quotes the Aden Sisters predicting the next run up in the silver price was to $172 per oz. Perhaps you can understand my frustration. When all these predictions come to fruition I'd like to travel the US - meet all you fellas and have a celebration party .

SpartacusDebt ceiling #780746/12/02; 01:07:37

---The Senate voted 69-29 to raise the federal debt ceiling by $450 billion, to $6.4 trillion. Treasury had asked for a $750 billion increase, claiming that $450 billion would only carry it through to December. Much more likely, the new ceiling would last until the summer of 2004, just in time for elections. The debt ceiling issue now moves back to the House where the leadership wants to embed an increase into a supplemental spending bill. However, with time running out, the Senate version will likely be the one that stands. Treasury has indicated that the June 2-year note auction (set to be announced June 19) might be delayed if the debt ceiling is not raised in time.---
Black BladeGold's depressing bull market #780756/12/02; 02:13:47


SAN FRANSISCO – Bernard Connolly, the chief global strategist and head of research for precious metals, currency and commodity risk manager AIG, left delegates at the LBMA Conference slack-jawed today with a worrying look at the world's future. His disturbing projections left hard-core gold bugs smiling, given the metal's inverse correlation to global political and economic stability. But his forecast bodes ill for a protracted period of uninterrupted economic growth and world peace. Connolly was expelled from his position among the senior currency-policy markers on the European Union in 1995 after he published the book The Rotten Heart of Europe: the Dirty War for Europe's Money. He was also named one of the Wall Street Journal's Europeans of the year for his troubles.

Earlier today he outlined a bleak global future for the world economy, complete with a forecast of the total collapse of the Euro and the European Union, accompanied by widespread racial, religious and ethnic unrest on the continent. His prediction also includes well as an all-out collapse of the Yen and the Japanese economy and the hammering of the dollar. The apocalyptic forecast, delivered in a paper entitled 'Gold: Silver lining to dark economic clouds?', underpinned Connoly's view that the current run in gold was only the beginning of an extended rally for the metal he calls "the least bad currency".

Black Blade: In a word –"GRIM". It must have been one hell of a speech though. We are definitely living in "Interesting Times". As always, get out of debt (and stay out of debt), stash enough cash for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance (why live like an Argentine, right?), and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Black BladeShould you be buying silver and gold?#780766/12/02; 03:25:29

Many pros believe precious metals will continue to shine. Here's a primer to help you decide if gold and silver belong in your coffers -- and how to put it there.


When the going gets tough for investors, tough investors go shopping for gold and silver. Thanks to fears of nuclear war, terrorist strikes, inflation and more damage to stocks, investors have rediscovered their love of precious metals and the security they think they find in them.

The stock market weakness and scandals will continue. Many analysts believe investors have moved back into gold and silver because they don't trust the stock market. They blame questions about the strength of the economic recovery, as well as fears of more accounting scandals, and a sense of betrayal after big losses sustained in the tech bubble. "It took 20 years to get to an incredibly overvalued stock market in which investors made all kinds of stupid mistakes," says John Hathaway, manager of the Tocqueville Gold (TGLDX). "Why should we be off the hook after only two years? We could be. But usually when bubbles break, you don't tidy it up that quickly." In other words, investors who expect more problems for stocks should be bullish on gold and silver because those problems will continue to drive investors to the precious metals.

Black Blade: That this appears on both the MSN and CNBC web sites is an indication that sentiment on Wall Street is slowly changing in favor of the precious metals.

Black BladePMs Flat, Petroleum Slightly Higher, and USD Slightly Lower#780776/12/02; 03:45:33

It looks like the calm before the storm. The only real indicator at the moment is the declining market futures indices. Wouldn't it be a kick if Gold and Silver prices launched higher while the LBMA participants were out of touch in transit from the 2002 LBMA conference? It would be fun - Gold analysts and brokers trying to make their way through congested airports and waiting in line for security checks as beads of sweat pour down their faces. It would be fun.

- Black Blade

Black BladeAsian and European Markets are soaked in a Sea of Red#780786/12/02; 03:51:23

I haven't seen this much red since the Soviet Union collapsed. It looks downright ugly overseas. US market futures are sinking further.

- Black Blade

The VictorianAnother reason for the last POG correction#780796/12/02; 04:54:56

Since the POG goes up as the dollar index (DXYO) drops, it was necessary to engineer a correction in the POG, and I believe we may see a few more small corrections for the same reason. Gold was already at the problematic 330 level, and with the dollar headed lower, it was necessary to push down POG enough to give the dollar more room to decline without pushing gold over the 330 mark. Today, the dollar is making new lows. If we had been at the pre-correction POG level, we would probably be at $335 POG today. We will probably climb slowly back toward $330, but I suspect there will be continued effort to hold gold back so that the dollar can quietly continue it's decline. The question is, how long will this work until the demand for gold and gold stocks exceeds any of the games the manipulators can play? Gold will then burst through and make new highs.
ArcticfoxSilver/WRM site#780806/12/02; 05:00:23

According to the Coeur d'Alene press, the U.S. mint will have no silver stockpiles left within two months. "Legislation before Congress will enable the federal government to become a net silver buyer for the first time in four decades."
"Both Carter and Reagan auctioned silver during the 1979-1980 price runup in order to shore up the treasury and quash the silver and gold markets, which were threatening the US Dollar."

Very interesting to think the U.S. government is after 40 years forced to help our cause. Wonder what would happen if American Silver coins all of a sudden became more popular. Get those orders in early!!

Black BladeEuro Rises Above 95 U.S. Cents Amid Concern Over U.S. Stocks#780816/12/02; 05:05:56


London, June 12 (Bloomberg) -- The euro rose above 95 U.S. cents for the first time in 17 months as concern about falling U.S. stocks and terrorist threats cut demand for dollars. ``There's a huge loss of confidence in U.S. accounting which is leading to massive selling of stocks,'' said Stefan Schilbe, an economist at HSBC Trinkaus in Dusseldorf. That will help push the dollar down to 97 cents per euro by the year-end, he said.

Black Blade: The US Dollar should be falling faster than that. Meanwhile the only currency that has strengthened substantially against the US Dollar is Gold. With both the US Dollar and the Yen crumbling into the abyss, it makes sense for the Japanese to accumulate more Gold. As I look into my crystal ball I see Argentina, then Brazil, then Japan ...... Hmmm....

miner49erBrahms @ 78070 - Perth Mint#780826/12/02; 06:51:16

Brahms - Thank you for your post regarding the Perth Mint. I guess my only question (and I am really asking this of the Perth Mint representative you quote) is this:

If every entity that had a certificate of unallocated ownership showed up at the mint one day and asked to see the portion that belonged to them, would any of them have to be shown the same metal twice?


All the auditing means nothing to me, as it only says the numbers work out, or that the performance indicators look kosher. I've no doubt they do.

All the AAA coverage and insurance means nothing to me, since they are only capable of providing cash equivalence, anyway.

But is the metal there like the owner believes it is? And if not, shouldn't the fine print that undoubtedly exists to cover themselves legally be a little more explicit?


Some more questions (again to the mint rep): In your mint and in others as well, unallocated storage does not typically involve storage or fabrication costs, or they are substantially less than allocated storage. (From the Perth Mint web site: "Unallocated Deposits do not attract storage fees or fabrication charges.") Since the only difference, technically speaking, is that allocated storage means I own THIS particular item, and unallocated means I only own that equivalent portion in a pool of these items, it would seem that they still take up the same space, and are still made the same way.

Why, therefore, does the one cost so much more than the other? What am really I paying for in allocated storage? Or what am I not really getting in unallocated storage? If I take possession of my unallocated lot, I will incur these fees at that time. Who has paid for them prior to this? And, why?

What is the advantage to this business model? It makes no sense to make something, and let me purchase it for the conceptual market value of the commodity itself, but not charge me for the real costs of making it into something marketable, or the recurring costs of holding on to it for me. While I will pay these fees, should I take delivery, this contradicts the chief marketing aim of this type of operation -- that being the mint does this for the express purpose of attracting clientele who don't want to take delivery. It just appears to be bad business to pay so much (and recurringly, too!) for something whose profitable transaction is a one-time deal.

So good Brahms, my purpose is not to be provocative, just direct -- and I direct these questions really to Perth Mint itself. Again, thank you very much for posting the information you did.


JimboThe Victorian on POG correction#780836/12/02; 07:06:18

I agree with your premise about the recent POG correction. However, I've been debating in my mind whether Louis Rukeyser, in his June newsletter, makes a valid point about the POG. Rukeyser says: "Given all the problems overhanging more-conventional investments right now, one might wonder why gold hasn't done much better in such a made-to-order morass."

I wonder, too. Seems to me the POG should already have passed the $350 level and be one its way to $400. But even insignificant--and false--news from tech companies such as Intel and Nokia, after driving up the Nasdaq by a few points, stunt the POG's progress. I've read many posts on this forum that point out we should be grateful the POG isn't moving up too quickly. And some of you have said $330 is a barrier that provides a "resistance level" that may be difficult to overcome.

That said, and as a follow-up to the previous contest, perhaps this forum should consider a second contest to see who can correctly guess when the POG will reach, say, $350? I'm usually an optimist, but I think this level, after seeing the resistance at $330, will take a (very?) long time to be reached. How 'bout the previous contest organizer? Do you want to set up a new contest along these lines?

YGMBrahms (06/11/02; 23:45:08MT - msg#: 78070)#780846/12/02; 07:28:31

Perth Mint......Is The Gold There or Not...Simple Question, Simple Answer!

Thanks for the timely reply to my "Rumor" question below..

""Apparently buyers of gold bars left with Perth Mint for safe keeping have the right to audit at any time. Supposedly a recent audit showed the vaults to be empty. Perth Mint claims that the contract fine print gives them the option to issue a certificate in lieu of the bullion, which can then be converted back to gold at their timing and discretion.""

But all the fancytalk of Insurance, policies and controls etc. does not answer to the question....Is there such fine print as to be able to replace Physical Bullion, Allocated and otherwise with Fiat Moneies or Paper Certificates of
"Any" kind, and if one were to contact Bullion owners with Physical Bullion stored at the Perth Mint would they "ALL" be able to withdraw said Bullion on the same day??

In other words many would like to hear 'for the record' that "ALL" the Allocated and UN-Allocated Gold & Silver Bullion is in fact in the Vaults, and not lent or leased out!...Respectfully.....YGM.

PS: How could a rumor of this nature come all the way from S Africa by way of USA/Canada....My source believes it to have merit. Possibly any Oz depositors reading these pages should immediately ask to see their Bullion ASAP.

Cavan ManYGM#780856/12/02; 07:50:13

Cavan ManAnother one bites the dust.#780866/12/02; 07:53:26

How 'bout sending this guy and his ilk to Cuba?

Top Financial News

06/12 09:40
Former ImClone CEO Sam Waksal Arrested by FBI, Spokesman Says
By Angela Zimm

New York, June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Sam Waksal, former president and chief executive officer of ImClone Systems Inc., has been arrested by four agents of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, a Waksal spokesman said.

Scott Tagliarino confirmed that FBI agents had arrested Waksal this morning but did not say what the charges were. CNBC has reported that the arrest was based on charges of illegal insider trading and that Waksal will be arraigned today.

CM Spin: Pure unadulterated white collar terrorism; he could bunk with Lay.

Gandalf the WhiteSir Coco -- You are very WELCOME here at the TABLEROUND !!#780876/12/02; 08:30:19

coco (6/12/02; 00:43:24MT - msg#: 78073)
Coco - many thanks to our host USA Gold.
"When all these predictions come to fruition I'd like to travel the US - meet all you fellas and have a celebration party."
YES INDEED, and the "GREAT HALL" of the USAGOLD Castle will be the location of that CELEBRATION !
Please do not hesitate to post more often and let us know the happenings in your corner of the ORB. Thanks.

EconoclastPerth Mint#780886/12/02; 08:45:59

I thought about using them a few years ago. You can "supposedly" buy more metal than your dollars will allow and make payments.
The whole thing just seemed a little fishy to me. "If it's too good to be true, it probably is."
Now, a couple years later, I read the first "rumor" that they're just another paper pyramid.

A piece of paper saying you own X amount of gold sure is different than owning X amount of gold wouldn't you say?

YGMPerth Mint Post & replies etc....#780896/12/02; 08:49:23

Causing a stir @ the Neighbouring Castle Hall.....

From GE...
@elictricman Perth mint
(markc63) Jun 12, 10:37

I find that very interesting as i liase with a guy here in Aus that has his own gold research website and he sent me an email today stating 'The weekly report will make your knees buckle with info i have found out about Aus gold reserves'.
The report comes out on the weekend and i will post it here when i receive it but putting 1+1 together mmmmmm.

The HoopleC M ; This one bites more than just dust#780906/12/02; 09:05:33

Adult film actress Marilin Star faces 20 years in prison and posted $300,000 bail for insider trading while she was having an affair with James J. McDermott, former CEO of Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Her ill-gotten gains? (strictly speaking trading tips) A measly $88,000. Typical justice, some schmoe gets the book thrown at her while the cabal and the banksters shake down billions. I don't recall anybody at Merrill-Lynch facing 20 years in prison, and the last time I checked Kenny boy Lay freely roamed the planet.
YGMAustralian Gold Reserves.....#780916/12/02; 10:10:01

There aren't any right!.....

*'The weekly report will make your knees buckle with info i have found out about Aus gold reserves'.....

Sure for some maybe, but others already know Canada, Aus, and NZ all have a peso because the Government sold the Gold....And someday "MAYBE" we'll get to find out just who bought it....Canada has sold close to 750 Tonnes (approx) and just to 'whom' is the mystery.....Now we have currency backed by T-Bills and US Fiat.....Great! The most indebted/over valued Paper on the planet is our Reserve backing....Methinks Canadian Fiat may prosper temporarily as the USD falters, but at some point the world will say resources or no the Canuck Buck is less than airy nothing...
"UNLESS" our Socialists masquerading as Liberals decide to "NATIONALIZE" our Gold Mining Industry in one way or another...Currently and since the 1800's the Royalty on an Ounce of Gold produced in Canada is $2.00...How long will that last if Gold finds a new and extreme value? The over use of environmental laws is and has been seriously curtailing Mining Exploration AND Production for years...Is this a mask/cover for Government interference? The war on Gold has many more facets than most realize....

Cavan Man@sector: USAGOLD78057#780926/12/02; 10:16:49

Being a shareholder of CEF I called the fund this morning. Now, I do agree that the current price discovery mechanisms for AU and AG do not reflect "market" clearing prices. This fact is to the advantage of those with an opposing agenda. However, I do think it is important to understand the differing perspectives individuals have on current events in the PM markets and this I post for the record.

The fund DID purchase the silver it required. Delivery time HAS increased for delivery of AG bullion. In this particular instance, the sellers are overseas; hence the extended delivery time. Also, the large amount of bullion sought contributed to the time it is taking for delivery. Rest assured, the bullion is enroute. The shareholders of this issue are healthy and whole.

Perhaps I have only underscored your point though I've described the circumstances a little differently? Respectfully yours...CM

sector@YGM About The Perth Mint and "Allocated Metal" Accounts#780946/12/02; 10:50:23

The Account is even insured at Market Value Too

The current Perth Mint Depository Services Agreement is specific in it's definitions of an "Allocated Metal " Account:

Clause 2.2
"Precious metals shall be stored by PMDS as Allocated Precious Metals on the following terms:

(a) Allocated Precious Metal is precious metal in a physical form (Bars, coins) purchased by the client from PMDS and lodged in the storage facility. (b) The Allocated Precious Metal shall be recorded in the client's Metal account on the PMDS register maintained by the Perth Mint.
(c) The precious metal shall not be used by PMDS at any time during the storage without written authorization from the client.
(d) Allocated Precious Metal lodged by the client shall be placed in a sealed box at the storage facility and may be withdrawn only on instruction from the client or the client's agent.
(e) A six month minimum storage fee shall be payable in advance by the client for Allocated Precious Metal storage. There shall be no refund of the storage fee on sale or delivery before the end of the storage period. The storage fee shall be a percentage of the US dollar value of Allocated Metal at the time of purchase. Storage charges and payment arrangements shall be agreed with the client prior to storage of the Allocated Metal.
IF there is no metal in the vaults of the Perth Mint, it will no doubt come as a big surprise to Mr. Michael G. Kyle, Manager Business Development and a senior Perth Mint officer and to Mr. Jonathan M. Hamson, Special Representative (Americas).

The above clause 2.2 leaves no room whatsoever for a "No gold in the vault" condition. There is no wording in the Agreement regarding an "Audit".

So, I wouldn't get too worked up about rumors about no gold in the Perth Mint's vaults unless I had possession of the full-length, unedited video that demonstrates it.

Strad MasterCarl H#780956/12/02; 10:52:38

Make of this what you will!

I must be EXTREMELY careful about what I write here because I am under court order not to say much about the company you just referred to. I will just say this - You are a VERY wise man to insist on delivery of your purchases from them!
YGMsector#780966/12/02; 10:54:45


..for the research...we may have to chase our tails from time to time but eventually we'll catch a rat...YGM.
RobotGuyOld News - - - " Gold: Underlying bullishness shines "#780976/12/02; 11:01:47

ANNADALE, Va. (CBS.MW) -- The contrarian case for gold remains strong.

The Hulbert Financial Digest's gold sentiment index currently stands at 29.2 percent. This represents the average gold market exposure among gold timing newsletters that communicate their thoughts daily with their subscribers.

This latest reading, which reflects gold timers' opinions as of the close on Tuesday, means that the average gold timer tracked by the HFD is allocating more than 70 percent of his portfolio to cash.

This index had risen to as high as 45.3 percent in early June, as gold rallied to near $330 --a level not seen in years. But in the face of gold's correction over recent days, gold timers quickly pulled back. In fact, the HFD's gold sentiment index is now back to where it stood in mid-May, well before the latest leg of gold's bull market.

Contrarians interpret this sort of action bullishly, for several reasons.

First, it is a positive sign that gold timers in recent days were so quick to retreat. This betrays an underlying skepticism on the part of advisers, an emotion on which bull markets thrive.

Further evidence of this underlying skepticism: The HFD's gold sentiment index is no higher today than it was a month ago, despite bullion itself being significantly higher. On May 13, for example, June Comex gold closed at $307.60, more than $12 per ounce lower than where it closed on Tuesday.

But perhaps the most bullish aspect of the current reading of the HFD's gold sentiment index: It is not off the charts.

Gold timers went wild every other time in recent years in which gold rose above $300, falling over themselves to jump on the bullish bandwagon. When gold eclipsed the $300 level in early February, for example, the HFD's index soared to 90 percent, more than three times its current reading.

Over the last two months, however, the HFD's gold sentiment index has not even come close to this 90 percent level. Even at its 45.3 percent level in early June, it still was only half the level that in the past has marked extreme optimism.

All of which suggests that the contrarian foundation of gold's bull market remains as strong as ever.

RobotGuy - - - Some of my friends still have the nerve to laugh at me, but most have shut their mouths. I keep telling them buy gold, buy gold stocks, it isn't over, we're just preparing for a real run. Make your money do the work. Oh well, I guess everyone can't gain.

Cheers goldbugs!

Strad MasterAn odd thing I've noticed.#780986/12/02; 11:03:18

Now, here is the question I was intending to post before I got sidetracked...

Has anyone besides me ever noticed how the POG, as displayed at the Kitco site, often seems to run in two or three day miror images? For example, if the POG goes up it will often go up the next day, and possibly even the third at the same angle with sometimes even the hourly fluctuations being very similar. The same is true if the POG goes down. It almost never happens for more than three days in a row but the two and three day pattern repetitions are so frequent that I don't beleive it is mere coincidence. Today's chart is a good example. Is there something to this? If so, what could account for it? On the other hand, perhaps I'm just fond of seeing patterns.

Carl HStrad Master: Delivery#780996/12/02; 11:13:25

I belive that we are living in extraordinary times. Prudence in such times require consideration of measures that may be unconventional. Hence, we have:
-opted to take posession of our physical
-placed all our mining stocks held outside of retirement accounts into our names
-Moved all our retirement brokerage accounts our of MSDW (a cabal member) to a small local brokerage house that actually seems to want our business

I will comment that having stock certificates is not that much of a pain. It takes a while to receive them, but according to our new broker, all we have to do to sell them is drive them down to their office and deposit them. Besides, those shares are not available for shorting. Per our broker, stocks in retirement accounts cannot be lent for shorting. (However, I read recently that if a brokerage house itself wants to short a stock, it does not need to borrow it. Can anyone verify this?)

sector@CavenMan You have done exactly what I hoped you would...#781006/12/02; 11:17:20

..confirmed with CEF management that they acted rapidly... secure their new silver at current market prices. Of course until it is actually delivered, CEF shareholders are still at risk for loss unless the replacement costs are "Metal in Kind" in the insurance fine print....which I'm sure, from what I've heard, it is.

Still it would be nice to hear again the "Explanation" from COMEX officers as to why they couldn't pony up 6 million ounces from the 34,318,816 "Eligible" ounces listed at the COMEX silver "warehouse" website. It would be even more useful if that explanation could be put in a memorandum, on COMEX letterhead...just for the record.

Cavan ManHa sector.....#781016/12/02; 12:13:19

I agree! But, we play their game (only one in town) in their house. When does the game change
JimboContest, anyone?#781026/12/02; 12:28:27

Early this morning, I posted the following (#78083):

"That said, and as a follow-up to the previous contest, perhaps this forum should consider a second contest to see who can correctly guess when the POG will reach, say, $350? I'm usually an optimist, but I think this level, after seeing the resistance at $330, will take a (very?) long time to be reached. How 'bout the previous contest organizer? Do you want to set up a new contest along these lines?"

Is the former contest sponsor willing to step up and start something along these lines?

BillinOregonArticle#781036/12/02; 12:39:17

This might be old news, but I though I would post it in case somebody missed it.

(Hello Stradmaster)

Bill would create new silver market

Strategic stockpile will be empty in two months

Staff writer

KELLOGG -- Legislation before Congress will enable the federal government to become a net silver buyer for the first time in four decades.
The bill sponsored by representatives from three of the nation's silver-producing states, would create a new market for domestically produced silver in government-minted coins. It is good news, if preliminary, for North Idaho mines -- many of which have been idled amid slumping metal markets.
The initiative was prompted by news that the U.S. government's 730 million-ounce strategic stockpile of silver -- accumulated in the years immediately following World War II -- will be empty within the next two months.
Since 1986, the stockpile has quietly walked out of the U.S. Treasury, been stamped into rounds by Sunshine Minting Co. and struck by the U.S. Mint into 1-ounce investment coins - at the rate of about 10 million troy ounces per year.
Since its congressional authorization, the U.S. Mint's coin program has consumed 137.5 million ounces of the white metal. At current consumption rates, the stockpile will be gone by the end of July, Sen. Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, told The Coeur d'Alene Press.
"With the depletion of silver reserves in the Defense Logistics Agency Stockpile, it has become necessary for the Department of the Treasury to acquire silver from other sources," Crapo said.
The American Eagle program has netted more than $264 million to the Treasury since its 1986 enactment, Crapo said. But now that the government's silver is gone, the Mint should be authorized to replace it from the market.
Crapo said the American Eagle is the world's most successful silver coinage program. It was a creation of then-Sen. Jim McClure, R-Idaho, to thwart Carter and Reagan administration-era threats to dump the entire Strategic and Critical Materials Stockpile of silver on the open market.
Both Carter and Reagan auctioned silver during the 1979-1980 price runup in order to shore up the treasury and quash the silver and gold markets, which were threatening the US Dollar.
Crapo's legislation, co-sponsored by Sen. Wayne Allard of Colorado and Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada calls for a continuation of the American Eagle coinage program. It additionally would allow the U.S. Mint to buy silver off the open market "while not paying more than the average world price," Crapo said.
"I feel very positive about this legislation. This is a benefit to the Treasury and to the silver mining industry. The fact that my co-sponsor, Sen. Reid, is Senate Majority Whip, is also encouraging," Crapo told The Coeur d'Alene Press.
Based on the Mint's current consumption rate, the legislation would create a market for 10 million ounces of silver annually - the equivalent of two Sunshine mines.
A Crapo staffer told The Coeur d'Alene Press on Friday that the legislation could contain language requiring the Mint to purchase silver from US refiners, if it complies with current trade treaties.
At current consumption rates, the Mint would need to buy, at the mill-head, about one-fifth of all American silver production.
The legislation, as-yet unassigned a bill number, is printed and will be introduced next week, Crapo told The Coeur d'Alene Press on Friday.

axANSWER TO ANDY SMITH#781046/12/02; 13:26:07



Reference: Stewart Bailey's Mining Web article of 6-11-02

regarding Andy Smith's (Mitsui

Metals) proposals at the San


Gold Mining conference on 6-11-02.

No, Andy Smith, the world's gold mines should not shut down

production. The Central Banks should not be the sole
suppliers of

gold for general world demand.


The Central Banks of the industralized and developing

need to increase their gold reserves in order to stabilize

currencies just as a "fly wheel" stabilizes the operation of

gasoline engine.

As YGM pointed out today, New Zealand, Australia and Canada

very low gold reserves. Japan and England have relatively
low gold

reserves compared to the size of their economies. These are

which must increase their gold reserves.

All patriotic U.S. citizens should urge their government to

increase U.S. gold reserves because the U.S. Dollar is the

reserve and reference currency. There is no natural limit
at which the

United States could have too much gold in its reserves.

Increasing U.S. gold reserves serves to strengthen the U.S.D

maintaining its purchasing power. This is in the public
interest and

helps the American consumer buy domestic and foreign goods

reasonable prices.

Exports can be raised, not by weakening the USD,. but by

technology and science into making products more valuable

producing them at a cheaper price. This keeps them

in a positive way.



They do this by:

a. buying all the newly mined gold they can get

b. occasionally purchasing from a country such as
Switzerland that

is not interested in maintaining or expanding their

industrial base

and economy ( such as a developed country like the U.S. , Japan

Germany, England is or as a developing country would be )

No, Andy Smith, let the gold mines supply gold to:

1. the central banks to increase their reserves

2. all other world demand for gold


Black BladeLate Surge In Stock Market#781056/12/02; 13:48:32

The late surge into positive territory on Wall Street is due to a "rumor" that Microsoft will beat analysts estimates. Remember that these estimates are vastly lowered over the last three years so it should be easier to beat or meet the "numbers". It is also curious that these rumors should surface in the last half hour of trading. It looks like a real "pump and prime" job.

- Black Blade

Black BladeNew rules would hold CEOs liable #781066/12/02; 14:44:30

SEC proposal: Make CEOs vouch for company reports


WASHINGTON, June 11 — Chief executives would have to personally vouch for their companies’ financial reports under a Bush administration proposal being put forward by federal regulators in the aftermath of Enron's collapse. Companies also would have to make public important changes in their operations much faster and to report a wider group of changes under the new rules to be proposed Wednesday by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Black Blade: It's good to see that the CEO will have to be certain of the story that is spun to the shareholder. There are too many charlatans in top management in corporate America, and too many plunder the company for personal gain. Supposedly at 5pm ET on CNBC, there will be a segment on this subject.

Cavan Man"Temporary" countries eh?#781076/12/02; 14:47:20

Top World News

06/12 15:56
Bush Considers Backing `Temporary' Palestinian State (Update1)
By Paul Basken

Washington, June 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. President George W. Bush is considering backing a ``temporary'' Palestinian state as a step toward a final peace agreement, Secretary of State Colin Powell told Arabic-language newspaper Al-Hayat in an interview.

Bush previously said he supported a Palestinian state alongside Israel. A temporary, transitional state would help build international confidence in the ability of Palestinians to govern themselves, Powell told the London-based daily newspaper.

``It has to be a state that has good governance, that there's transparency, that there's no corruption, that the security organizations work well,'' Powell said. ``And if you can put all that in that kind of a state, it will become more efficient and it will help us develop the confidence that is needed between the two parties to move forward.''

CM comment: "good organizations work well"...:Can you name a country, any country that meets these criteria? I really like Mr. Powell but I for one wish it to be known that I am paying attention and, I believe that words do mean something!

Broken TeeThanks BB #781086/12/02; 14:48:51

Thanks for the Microsoft update. I was wondering what caused the 100+ jump at the end of todays session.
YGMUSA Nat Debt per Person vs Canada per Person....#781096/12/02; 15:00:45

The Outstanding Public Debt as of 12 Jun 2002 at 08:46:11 PM GMT is: 6,093,378,422,328.80

The estimated population of the United States is 287,507,752
so each citizen's share of this debt is $21,193.79.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$1,111 million per day since September 28, 2001!


Canadian National Debt....$547,400,000,000.00
Citizen's Share of Debt....$17,611.00

Only $4,000.00 less p/person than the USA....
And we have approx 1 Million oz of Gold left in the Gov. Treasury, vs a the (?)'reported'(?) 8,000 +/- Tons of US....

YGMThom Calandra's Report...#781106/12/02; 15:11:46{F9697F3B-D1D5-415A-878A-05166DD5832D}


As Wall Street and Main Street investors suffer gaping losses on stocks of all stripes and colors, gold mining shares have risen 100, 200 and 300 percent since January. The money those stocks gave back to the market earlier this week, as gold's price slid $8 or so to $320 an ounce, seems merely to have whetted the appetite of gold's strongest believers.

"I think today was a great buying opportunity for the gold stocks, the first good chance to buy that we've seen for some time," longtime gold industry analyst and newsletter writer Robert Bishop was saying at the conference, just after North American mining stocks, and the gold price, reversed course and headed higher. "There was a serious washout in many stocks early (Tuesday), and strong recoveries as the day went on."

Bishop's Gold Mining Stock Report, perhaps more than any other investment newsletter in North America, has forged an enviable track record at choosing winners among the smallest gold producers and explorers, most of them scraping dusty pits in South America, Canada and across Africa and parts of Asia.

"Gold could prove me wrong, but my guess is that (Tuesday) was the best day to spend money on gold stocks that we have seen in some time, and perhaps the best chance we'll get for some time to come," said Bishop, who was, like everyone else, listening to every word on that London Bullion Market Association stage in California. "The fund managers who are underweight in the sector -- in other words, most of them -- have been looking for an entry point, and with end-of-quarter coming up, they need to show some of these names on their books."

To be sure, many of the 350 delegates at this bullion gathering were praying, pleading, willing gold to go higher. "This is a time of change, change in markets, change in supply," said Wayne Murdy, chairman of chief executive of the world's largest gold miner, Newmont Mining (NEM: news, chart, profile). "Fund managers are interested in different asset classes."

slingshotPossible Silver Squeeze?#781116/12/02; 15:20:35

Oh Happy Day

Central Fund's of Canada Buying $50 million in PM's.Three months.
U.S. Treasury Buying silver on the open market. Two months.

Are industrials that use silver in manufacture going to buy this month before a rise in the POS?

Just the mention of not being able to cover the order should cause some to jump ahead.

Fe Fi Fo Thumb, I bought some silver.
Do you have some?

Gold right next to silver in the display case. :o)

Gandalf the WhiteJimbo's Questions !!#781126/12/02; 15:20:54

Jimbo (6/12/02; 12:28:27MT - msg#: 78102)
Contest, anyone?
Sorry Jimbo, I was taking care of some sick Hobbits and missed your early posting and just now caught the re-post.
The simple answer is that USAGOLD Contests must have a specific ending time and price source, so the WINNERS can be rewarded with the "SPOILS". The "open ended" time period Contest goals like identifying the date of an certain action occurring is totally unknown, and that occurrence MAY EVER happen. For example, say that in 1980 that the Hobbits had a offered a "MILLION US$ PRIZE" Contest to guess the date and time that Au touched $1,000. per ounce an the London "AM" Settlement. IF they would have taken a single $1. as an entry fee, they could have all retired over the 20 + years, just from the interest earned on the entry fees. We still await THAT WINNING date and time, YES ?
So, let us think of "closed end" types of goals to use in CONTESTS. Perhaps ANOTHER Essay Contest, where the deep thinkers are task with a conundrum ? Suggestions ?

BrahmsPerth Mint... Miner49er and YGM posts#781136/12/02; 15:58:07

I have inspected the June 2001 accounts of the Perth mint.

At that date they had a negative! stock of bullion (less than zero) and were short approx. A$200,000,000 bullion.

All the unallocated bullion purchased is leased to its subsidiaries and joint ventures as working capital. This is 'guaranteed' by the West OZ Govt.

So unallocated bullion investments are in effect low interest loans to the businesses of the Perth Mint and its partners. The Govt. guarantee means that these investments are 'paper' subject to the same risks that other bullion traders taking short positions in the markets endure. A sudden big increase in the Gold price would cause the Mint to show a big loss and it could not produce the Gold without money from the Govt and its insurers.

Allocated bullion is not included in the accounts so I cannot tell if they are secure.
2002 accounts out in a month or two.

I will be doing more research and asking them questions. All your suggestions and comments welcome...

BrahmsPerth Mint#781146/12/02; 16:30:38

Letter to the Mint...
Dear Anita
I have inspected the June 2001 accounts of the Perth Mint.

At that date they had a negative! stock of bullion (less than zero) and were short approx. A$200,000,000 bullion.

All the unallocated bullion purchased is leased to its subsidiaries and joint ventures as working capital. This is 'guaranteed' by the West OZ Govt.

So unallocated bullion investments are in effect low interest loans to the businesses of the Perth Mint and its partners. The Govt. guarantee means that these investments are 'paper' subject to the same risks that other bullion traders taking short positions in the markets endure.
A sudden big increase in the Gold price would cause the Mint to show a big loss and it could not produce the Gold without money from the Govt and its insurers.

Allocated bullion is not included in the accounts so I cannot tell if they are secure.

When an investor buys bullion Anita it is because they are expecting paper market failures and possibly huge changes in the gold price over short periods. When they discover that all the unallocated bullion is leased out and there is nothing (actually less that nothing at June2001)
in the kitty it makes them very nervous indeed.

The PerthMint needs to urgently look at the huge risk it is taking by leasing out everything in the kitty at this time. Gold could erupt anytime leaving the Mint with huge losses and unable to produce investors metal. The Govt guarantee is a paper one! Paper is not bullion and can
never substitute for it. When the Gold price is rising, prudence should dictate that the Mint should retain a large proportion of the bullion in the vault and not lease it out.

Can you tell me please how much is the current short position of the Mint and how much unallocated bullion is retained. I would like to see an auditors report in the 2002 accounts commenting on any risky short
position that the Mint has. I would also like to see an auditors report on the allocated bullion in the Mint.

Gold bugs are a close knit community linked by the Web these days and can quickly ferret out and assess risk. They like to see prudent policies by their bullion dealers and will be very concerned if the 101% lease out ratio is being maintained by the Mint. Risks in paper markets are perceived to be huge at this time by Gold investors. Govt
guarantees and insurance policies are paper.

Looking forward to your reply

YGMBrahms...#781156/12/02; 16:50:56

Excellent Detective Work.......

With all your hard work you may prove I wasn't chasing my own tail after all....You may have a "Tiger by the Tail"
Mayhaps the Perth Mint is also in the process of re-stocking the larder....Way to go Brahms....Your info has been forwarded to GATA.......YGM.

steadyrogue trader alert#781166/12/02; 16:51:52

Currency trader pleads innocent
Rusnak accused of hiding $691 million to maintain salary


BALTIMORE, June 12 — A currency trader pleaded
innocent Wednesday to federal charges that he
fraudulently hid $691 million in losses to
maintain his six-figure income at Allfirst

nickel62A pastor that is actually helping his congregation...a feel good story !#781176/12/02; 17:31:57

The best story of doing well by our fellow man I have seen in awhile.
sourdoughu.s dollar past /present/future#781186/12/02; 17:36:58,2276,48094,00.html?

Asian "are" getting the picture!
Aristotlesector, please have another look at some dusty old words#781196/12/02; 18:23:04

I saw your comment today to Cavan Man (# 78100):

"Still it would be nice to hear again the "Explanation" from COMEX officers as to why they couldn't pony up 6 million ounces from the 34,318,816 "Eligible" ounces listed at the COMEX silver "warehouse" website."

Not long ago I offered some simple commentary that I'd hoped would put an end once and for all to all of this rampant misconception about "eligible" stocks belonging to the Exchange. Hear me now, people: "COMEX owns no metal."

Granted, my post was focused on Gold the Exchange's "warehouses," but you can surely expand the thought to see your way clear on silver, too, I hope.

Here's my bit of community outreach for the day. Rather than waste this precious space again, I've found where the post is in the archives at the attached link. Scroll down to this one --
Aristotle (6/4/02; 19:41:04MT - msg#: 77498)

Afterwards you should have no problem impressing your friends and families with your thorough knowledge of the meaning of "eligible" and "registered" COMEX ounces -- none of which belongs to COMEX, nor is it necessarily on the block for potential physical settlement of contracts.

Teach a man to fish...

Gold. Get you some. --- Aristotle

SiochainTwilight gold Plus Stock Drop Manipulation#781206/12/02; 18:31:51

They're at it up during day then if you have Level II you could see the pattern develop after NY gold close

Large sells at lower and lower prices....hmmm...someone knows something

Well...look at the twilight time of so called Illiquid trading period...sudden drop of gold by two dollars ...then the lower trading level is picked up and gold continues low

Today's sellers IMO were apparently informed of "planned" drop in twilight gold....they can then pick up stocks prices lower tomorrow or next day or so ...their reward for having helped add to concern that gold is dropping when Overseas looks at the two stock sell-off despite good gold day....then the sudden low volume period drop and gold falls

Getting to be repetitive...yet is still working!!!!For Now!!!!!

Black BladeU.S. Regulators Back $300 Mln Upgrade of California Power Line#781216/12/02; 19:38:09


Washington, June 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. energy regulators approved a $300 million project to ease congestion on a California electric transmission route that's been blamed for some of the blackouts during the state's power crisis last year.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission said the project, announced by Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham in October, will bring more power to the northern part of the state. The California Public Utility Commission had requested that the project be rejected because state regulators haven't shown it's necessary. ``The need of this line has been made and proven,'' FERC Chairman Pat Wood said at the commission's meeting today.

Black Blade: The Grasshoppers are in denial, but they had better get crackin’. I talked to a friend in the energy distribution side of the business earlier today. He is of the opinion that California will be in serious trouble next year because they have squandered an opportunity to build additional power generation and transmission upgrades. I have to agree. That is human nature though – hiding ones head in the sand when danger signals are seen and hope the problem will just go away. Thankfully the state is in a severe recession or else they would be experiencing blackouts like last year.

WaveriderGetting the Gold Message Out....#781226/12/02; 19:44:21

I've pondered Uponroof's message of last week re: his spreading the word about Gold to various other cyberspace investment groups - it's very worthy work. In the same spirit, I have started to provide comments to authors of the news items that are posted here. For instance, Sourdough's posted article on the US dollar provides a great opportunity to reply to the author about the implications for Gold. I took opportunity to do that, as well as invite him to visit this discussion forum for more information (and included the link). It's easy as most authors invite feedback at the click of a mouse. MK mentioned recently how much time is spent by the media debasing Gold - I say let's not let them get away with it without a challenge! I would encourage everyone here to respond to these articles to support Gold, defend Gold, and most importantly to educate those who are writing for the mainstream media. Now, time for a beer! Cheers,

JimboNew contest suggestion#781236/12/02; 20:00:57

Gandalf the White, an essay contest might be appropriate. My suggestion for a topic would challenge the historians among us to compare the 1979-80 period with today's gold bull. Perhaps an appropriate essay title would be, "Gold Bull 2002: 1980 Imposter or The Real Thing?" What think? Anyone?
sectorAIG Does a Shape-Shift in the GAMMA Quadrant [AKA San Francisco]#781246/12/02; 20:08:27

>Gold's depressing bull market---The Mining Web
By: Stewart Bailey
Posted: 2002/06/11 Tue 18:00 | © Miningweb 1997-2002

SAN FRANCISCO – Bernard Connolly, the chief global strategist and head of research for precious metals, currency and commodity risk manager AIG, left delegates at the LBMA Conference slack-jawed today with a worrying look at the world's future. His disturbing projections left hard-core gold bugs smiling, given the metal's inverse correlation to global political and economic stability. But his forecast bodes ill for a protracted period of uninterrupted economic growth and world peace.

Connolly was expelled from his position among the senior currency-policy markers on the European Union in 1995 after he published the book The Rotten Heart of Europe: the Dirty War for Europe's Money. He was also named one of the Wall Street Journal's Europeans of the year for his troubles.

Earlier today he outlined a bleak global future for the world economy, complete with a forecast of the total collapse of the Euro and the European Union, accompanied by widespread racial, religious and ethnic unrest on the continent. His prediction also includes an all-out collapse of the Yen and the Japanese economy and the hammering of the dollar.

The apocalyptic forecast, delivered in a paper entitled 'Gold: Silver lining to dark economic clouds?', underpinned Connolly's view that the current run in gold was only the beginning of an extended rally for the metal he calls "the least bad currency".
"Only the beginning"

My, My, My! What a turnaround for the AIG gold predators who have been seen smashing gold in the COMEX pits so many times in the past.

This forcast from a sometimes cabal member is a seismic event reverberating through the walnut panneled halls of the LBMA. Hmmmm. better squeeze some more coins into the old sock drawer.

The stuff about the EU is interesting insofar as the Germans seem to be resurrecting the Deutschemark in out-of-the-way, local trading. It probably came from mattresses.
@Aristotle...My quotations around the word "Warehouse" in my previous post was to emphasis what you have so eloquently said several times. Namely that the "Warehouse" of the COMEX is really a just listing of commercial metals users warehouses including bank vault and armored car security holdings that, of course, belong to other people and not the COMEX. Their IS a "Window" of sorts at the COMEX, as Bob Chapman has recently written about, where one can get precious metals spot deliveries albeit only through great masses of red tape. Still it would be nice to actually SEE the beautiful .999 ounce forms of metal from the many COMEX licenced providers. It's a good thing the COMEX doesn't put those pics on their website...might spur demand and we can't have THAT.

If CEF had advertized they would pay $6 per ounce for 6 million ounces of silver their phone would have run off the hook and the 186 tonnes wouls have been delivered yesterday.

ZenideaPerth Mint#781256/12/02; 20:14:18

If one visits the Perth Mint to watch the gold pours,
(follow the gunned up uniforms) one may sight a glass partitioned room filled with stamping machinery etc
that is keeping a number of employees rather busy in weight training. On the tables through the processes one
will spot enough shiney metal moving through the production line to initiate spontainious heart arrhythmia!.
The refinery smoke stack by the international airport is also constantly huffing and puffing away at speed.
I wonder where it all goes!. hehe; I bet if two people came in to ask to see their Gold they would be shown the same piece; not because its not there but because I couldnt be bothered wandering out the back to rummage through the tonnages to find something that is made perfect exactly like the others.

Cavan Mansector#781266/12/02; 20:22:57

Now, I'm not trying to stir anything up but I do think it telling that an entity (CEF) was able to purchase 6mm ounces at or below spot relatively easily aside from the wait on delivery. That's a lot of ag.
Cavan ManFT just getting the word out.#781276/12/02; 20:30:14

This is old news here and at other gold forums.

Banks say Nikkei was manipulated by Japan
By David Ibison in Tokyo
Published: June 12 2002 21:58 | Last Updated: June 12 2002 21:58

The Nikkei 225 benchmark index was subjected to a series of measures in the run-up to the end of the financial year in March that were designed to ensure it closed above 11,000 points, say senior international bankers interviewed by the Financial Times.

Although government agencies insist their aim was only to enforce the law, bankers believe there was a widespread fear in government circles that there could be a "March crisis" as a result of depressed stock prices.

Observers have long suspected that the market was being manipulated. Overseas speculators with short positions were thought by officials to be responsible for the downward pressure on the market. Masajuro Shiokawa, finance minister, said in March that the market had become a "gambling den" for foreign speculators.

The bankers believe the government initiated a process known as gyosei shido - or administrative guidance - in order to ensure the market closed above 11,000 points, which was considered the safe level at which the banks and companies could avert damaging losses.

In the run-up to the end of the financial year, the Nikkei was struggling at about 9,500 - a level that threatened to push some companies into bankruptcy because their huge securities portfolios had to be booked at market value.

The bankers believe the Financial Services Agency (FSA), the main regulator, with the encouragement of the government, implemented carefully timed measures to curb short selling and halt the market's decline.

They say this involved a drip feed of regulatory penalties, and additional reporting requirements on short-sale supervision. There was also a new "uptick rule", which made it impossible to sell short in a falling market.

They point out that almost every overseas investment bank was penalised by the FSA for illegal short-selling ahead of the March 31 year-end. They claim these violations were almost always technical rather than deliberate.

Allegations of any kind of guidance are denied vigorously by the FSA and the Securities and Exchange Surveillance Committee (SESC), a division of the FSA. They say significant violations of short sales regulations indicated action was needed.

The FSA points to cases such as that of Goldman Sachs which was found to have conducted 2,368 illegal short sales despite having been instructed in 1998 to tighten controls. Morgan Stanley, it alleges, violated short-selling rules and manipulated the share price of one company.

"We could have waited if things had not been so serious," said an FSA official. The official added that the market went up for one simple reason: the news that Japan's economy may be entering a cyclical recovery based on a strengthening US economy.

SiochainWaverider/Uponroof#781286/12/02; 20:34:11

I wholeheartedly support the need to expand gold information to as many mainstream areas as possible...something which we all can contribute to in our own way

I've been writing on Motley Fool as well as Raging Bull re different articles and results and alternatives facing us

Also if you have non-gold may be useful to write to them...I have one subscription of a widely read stock letter and have asked them to include three times weekly update on Precious Metals....they have mentioned gold favorably so now maybe with a little hint or two they will make it part of their regular updates

Also I have a long list of people who are on mailing list for gold info...and some have bought and are becoming supporters

Another option is to write to editorial page of local is much more likely that media on local level will pick up well thought out pieces.

By the way...I am reading "Gold Wars" is really excellent....could be the basis for many editorial writings.

I now have an even better appreciation of the importance of our battle as well as how the paper "money" has led to so many of the world problems past and current...and unfortunately future, if change does not occur

We truly are in WWIII....the outcome of which will determine whether we are more fully enslaved to paper and the corresponding financial/corporate/political deceit/greed and destruction which it breeds... or build a prosperous world and culture of respect and opportunity which has a solid foundation of honesty and trust based on gold and silver rather than fiat "money"

As the author notes: "With honest money, people will have confidence in the future efficacy of that money. But it is necessary that they take destiny in their own hands ......and study monetary archaeology" ...with knowledge I believe as Ferdinand Lips that people will choose gold as being most beneficial and trustworthy.

Now the challenge is to spread the message in whatever way each of us can....just my take

Chris PowellAudio of GATA Chairman Murphy's speech at Vancouver conference#781296/12/02; 21:06:33

Audio of GATA Chairman Bill Murphy's speech at
Vancouver gold conference:

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by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
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turkey hunterReceived the gold today#781306/12/02; 21:26:20

Just got my golden prize in the mail today. This is the first time I ever saw a Swiss 20 Franc. The date is 1930. I was wondering whose picture was on the coin. Looks like it
represents the Helvetii people. I found some info:
Helvetia , region of central Europe, occupying the plateau between the Alps and the Jura mts. The name is derived from the Roman term for its inhabitants, the predominantly
Celtic Helvetii, who were defeated (58 B.C.) at Bibracte by Julius Caesar.. The Helvetii later prospered under Roman rule; their achievements are evidenced by the remains at
Avenches. Helvetia corresponds roughly to the western part of modern Switzerland, and the name is still used in poetic reference to that country and on its postage stamps.

What is really amazing is the picture of the person on the coin. Take away the long hair he looks just like me.

If anyone knows more about the coin I would like to know more about it.
Thank you USAGold

ElwoodTest#781316/12/02; 22:00:39

Test. Thanks, Randy.
Black BladeValue of an ounce of gold, a gentleman's suit?#781326/12/02; 22:17:55


HONG KONG, June 13 (Reuters) - In days past when exchange rates were stable and inflation was low, the purchasing power of an ounce of gold was said to be the cost of a gentleman's suit or a dinner for two at a good restaurant.

Black Blade: The word about Gold is getting out to the rest of America. Tonight I had a discussion with an elderly neighbor. We discussed Gold and he said "isn't that a bad investment?" We had discussed Gold and the place of Gold in ones portfolio and the counter cyclical nature of hard assets in periods of economic distress.

YGMThe Believer....#781336/12/02; 22:21:00

are ya still w/ us....

The thought police circling your house yet? Hope you're still pumped for the Knox Knocking Petition? Randy will give you my email, I've got others interested w/o trying...
Black BladeGold soars while markets fall#781346/12/02; 22:32:01

As the stock market falls, the price of gold is rising


At times of market instability, when investors are looking for safer places for their money, gold appeals because its price moves so independently from stocks and bonds. The price of gold depends on supply and demand, the US dollar, inflation and interest rates. As a result, gold can be a way of hedging your bets and diversifying a portfolio, providing a safe haven for cash in leaner times. Rhona O'Connell from the World Gold Council explained why the price of gold has been rising so steadily. "Demand has been outstripping supply for the last four years." "It performs well against currency risk and particularly when the dollar is under pressure"

Black Blade: The article also comes with a nice photo of Gold. The point of Gold ownership is that it is a form of portfolio insurance. At these prices, it is still quite cheap.

BrahmsPerth Mint and an Apology#781356/12/02; 23:11:37

I have spoken to the Perth Mint regarding my earlier posting and investors need have no concerns about bullion investments.

Both allocated and unallocated bullion do not appear on the balance sheet. All investors bullion is kept in the Mint and NONE of it is leased.

The leased bullion on the balance sheet is the working capital of the Mint used for its businesses.

The Perth Mint assures me that it is in business to look after its investors, their bullion is completely safe, and the guarantees provided by the West Australian Government are of AAA quality.

Black BladeFinancing of US debt not sustainable: report #781366/13/02; 00:01:30,2276,48094,00.html?

Reversal of capital inflows into US from Asia could precipitate a crisis


(SINGAPORE) The United States, by far the largest indebted nation in the world, is being bankrolled by thrifty Asian savers like Japan, China and Singapore. But this is unsustainable and a threat to financial stability, says a report by the New Economics Foundation (NEF), a radical UK think-tank. Savings trends in Asia will decline as its middle classes consume more and a reversal of capital inflows into the US could precipitate a financial crisis or a sudden crash like in Thailand or Mexico.

Black Blade: Interesting article. Not as radical as some think though.

AristotleHey Brahms#781376/13/02; 00:16:19

I've been around the block a few times, I have a keen business sense, and I really gotta hand it to ya. You've done a masterful job of smacking us all with your shameless promotion of the Perth mint cleverly disguised as your own incompetence. Good god, man. I mean really... have some pride. Be a stand up guy and dance with what brung ya... stop snapping your fingers under the nose of your host. I can assure you I've received nothing but exceptionally professional service from these fine folks and they deserve better than what you're dishing out on behalf of their competitors. I can tolerate a lot of personal abuses but as a businessman this sort of disrespect REALLY pisses me off and I can't stand idly by as a witness to this mugging. I don't give a goddam what hour it is, when I'm done with this woodshedding I'm phoning Randy to suggest that you be weighed, measured, and if found wanting, cast back into the moat.

If it were up to me to dole out penance I'd have you parade back and forth across the entry to the Perth Mint wearing a sandwich board extolling the virtues of USAGOLD.

Sheeeeeeeeeeesh!!!! Whattabunchafreeloadinggoodfornothings!

Respect. Show you some. --- Aristotle

Whew! That felt GOOD!!

Black BladeGold jewellery in Mumbai has much less than 23 carats#781386/13/02; 00:54:44


Be watchful of the jewellery you buy in Mumbai. What most sell contain far less than the claimed 23 carats - it ranges from 18 to 22.5. And in the process you lose anywhere between Rs. 600 to Rs. 1000 per 10 gm. That is the finding of the Consumer Guidance Society of India after testing 16 pendants bought from different shops in the city.

Black Blade: A lot of crooks in the jewelry trade. Of course in the west we have jewelry store that sell jewelry of questionable value as well.

Black BladeDollar Firms Despite Stock Drop #781396/13/02; 01:05:48§ion=news&news_id=bus-n12457368&date=20020612&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw


NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday, reviving from a fresh 17-month low against the euro hit overnight as traders took a break from months of relentless dollar selling to take profits on the European currency.

Black Blade: The US Dollar is recovering some due to intense buying of dollars and selling of Yen. Looks like Gold could retest the $315 an ounce level.

Black BladeTokyo's Nikkei Ends at 2-Month Low#781406/13/02; 01:26:58


TOKYO (Reuters) - Tokyo's key Nikkei average closed at a two-month low on Thursday, with a dive in brokerages such as Nomura Holdings leading a broad-based decline as jitters ahead of settlements of equity derivatives weighted on sentiment. Friday's special quotation (SQ) fixing for settlements of June Nikkei options and futures could induce volatility, while growing pessimism over the sustainability of Japan's export-led recovery kept investors from entering the market, analysts said.

Black Blade: The Japanese government has been busy buying dollars and selling Yen with virtually no result. The result is a complete loss of consumer confidence and lack of buying on the Nikkei – in short, the Japanese investors ain't buying it. Look for the Nikkei to sink below the 10,000 level.

Black BladeBank of America Lays Off 575 Workers#781416/13/02; 01:38:40

Bank of America Lays Off 575 Workers at Wichita Regional Call Center


WICHITA, Kan. (AP) -- Bank of America will layoff 575 workers in Wichita at its regional call center by mid-August, saying the Internet and other technologies are making the center's customer service jobs obsolete.

Black Blade: That's progress. These nonessential "Bankers Bones" are off to the growing "Bone Pile".

Black BladeCredit Suisse to Cut 500 Jobs#781426/13/02; 01:50:48


No. 2 Swiss Bank Credit Suisse Announces Further 500 Job Cuts

Black Blade: Not a good day for bankers. More off to the "Bone Pile".

Black BladeDynegy to Cut Unspecified Number of Jobs#781436/13/02; 01:54:55


HOUSTON (Reuters) - Beleaguered energy marketing and trading company Dynegy Inc. (NYSE:DYN - News) said on Wednesday it expects to announce soon an unspecified number of layoffs.

Black Blade: Enron is to the energy industry what Bre-X was to the Gold industry. Natural gas companies look to take a beating for a while. In the meantime, they will contribute to the growing "Bone Pile".

Black BladeEconomist Tells House Panel Overvalued Dollar Hurts Trade#781446/13/02; 01:59:47


WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- An economist told a congressional panel Wednesday that the value of the U.S. dollar must be lowered, saying it is having a negative impact on trade. Lawrence Chimerine, who runs an economic consulting firm, testified before the House of Representatives' Small Business Committee, which held a hearing on the effect of the dollar's value on small exporters. In written testimony for the hearing, Chimerine said the impact of the overvalued dollar is "especially devastating" to small manufacturers and farmers....

Black Blade: As I have been saying for some time now. The overvalued US Dollar must be lowered even if the Japanese don't like it.

Black BladeJapan gold investors shrug off geopolitical fears #781456/13/02; 02:19:21


TOKYO, June 13 (Reuters) - Nuclear brinkmanship on the Indian subcontinent. Suicide explosions in the Middle East. Fears of "dirty bombs" wreaking havoc in downtown Manhatten. At times like these, it's only human to feel nervous. And if you're a jittery investor, you go out and buy gold.

Flash back to February, when angst over the state of Japan's rickety economy and banking system helped to push gold above $300 an ounce for the first time in two years. Retail investors in Japan, panicking about a looming end to guarantees on bank deposits, bought a staggering 47.5 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of calendar 2002, almost four times the level a year earlier.

Gold buying by ordinary Japanese -- prodigious hoarders, with per-household savings averaging about 14 million yen ($111,800) -- has tended to jump after high-profile bankruptcies, such as the failure of the Long Term Credit Bank in 1998. Various disasters have also triggered bullion buying. In 1995, sales hit 139.1 tonnes after a devastating earthquake struck the western city of Kobe and a doomsday cult unleashed sarin nerve gas in Tokyo subway trains. In all those cases, the crises were close to home.

Black Blade: The times are changing. The lessons of Argentina are not likely lost on the average Japanese when they are concerned about an insolvent banking sector and with bank insurance guarantees on all deposits withdrawn on April 1st, 2003.

Humble Pie#78137#781466/13/02; 02:59:08

I'm glad someone had the balls to go after him .Bravo Aristotle .
Black BladeGold Dives, Petroleum Higher, and USD Rockets Higher#781476/13/02; 03:28:13

Quite a reversal overnight. Gold drops $2.90 as the USD rockets higher on intensive buying by the Japanese interventionists. Gold could easily test the $315 an ounce level again as the toilet currencies flame out against a strong US dollar. This does open up another opportunity to get PMs at a lower price.

- Black Blade

Black BladeCNBC Focus On Gold#781486/13/02; 03:38:27

Of course now that Gold is taking a big hit this morning on the USD recovery to 112. This morning CNBC is putting the spotlight on Gold. It sure gets a lot of attention for a "barbarous relic" of "no importance" when it drops $3.00. Meanwhile market index futures are higher on no real news and oil is higher on two day old news that inventories dropped a mere 2.6 million bbl. The markets can get very bizarre at times.

- Black Blade

Black BladeCNBC Focus On Gold#781496/13/02; 03:39:10

Of course now that Gold is taking a big hit this morning on the USD recovery to 112. This morning CNBC is putting the spotlight on Gold. It sure gets a lot of attention for a "barbarous relic" of "no importance" when it drops $3.00. Meanwhile market index futures are higher on no real news and oil is higher on two day old news that inventories dropped a mere 2.6 million bbl. The markets can get very bizarre at times.

- Black Blade

Black BladeEuropean Bank Selling Gold#781506/13/02; 03:56:03

There is a rumor out of Sydney that a European bank is selling out long Gold positions in Asia and now in Europe. It appears that the "line in the sand" is drawn. The level of support appears to be at $315 an ounce. It's the same old story again. It would appear that this is an orchestrated selling event for the purpose to pushing Gold lower. The approach on $330 an ounce had to have caused some concerned among the Gold shorts and now we approach expiry tomorrow.

- Black Blade

WaveriderU.S. May Retail Sales Fall 0.9%#7815206/13/02; 07:52:43

"U.S. retail sales decreased more in May than at any time in the last six months, reflecting declines at auto dealers, department stores and clothing outlets, government figures showed.

Sales slumped 0.9 percent, three times the drop economists had expected, to $297 billion during the month. The decrease followed a 1.2 percent increase in April, according to the Commerce Department. Excluding automobiles, sales fell 0.4 percent last month, the first decline since September."

Waverider: It would seem that consumers are reaching their credit limits and it's putting a dent in their spending patterns. Bob Chapman mentioned at the conference that in the US people spend >110% of their income and that average credit card debt is >$8,000. David Tice commented that consumption will slow down and when it stops it will decimate the economy. How come these so-called "economists" don't get it?

~ Black Blade - not radical, but a teaching opportunity. Cheers!

USAGOLDDoes the Perth Mint Pay Its Bills?#7815306/13/02; 07:57:39

We sure hope so. . .because we got them logged at $6000 worth of advertising and bill being drawn up by our billing department as this is written. Thank you for doing business with USAGOLD. . . .
CoBra(too)On the Subject of Payment of Bills -#781546/13/02; 08:06:17

Re - USAGOLD - pherhaps, this entity could show its good faith by payment in kind. That's US$ 6.000 in gold bullion or Kangaroo Coin for the free advertisement.
Duh? cb2

DOWNUNDERTESTING - - -#781556/13/02; 08:16:21

steadybills/advertisement#781566/13/02; 08:37:16

seriously how much does it cost to advertise here? i want to post how to buy the stickers! say once a week for 3 months so 12 ads over one qtr.
YGMDownunder...#781576/13/02; 08:51:00


I can understand your and Aristotles and others such as USA Golds indignation at Brahms blatant BS (sucked me in a ways) but to call a rumor and the questioning of a rumor, lies and manure etc....well that's a bit strong no? Would you say the same of the "Many" authors who have forever questioned the actual Gold Reserves of the US Mint? We all know that there abound more lies and deceit surrounding the workings of Gold than with any other thing of value.... And Bill's Cafe was not the sole source of the rumor, I also had heard it from a friend in Africa...One rumor does not a "Rumor-Monger" make......YGM
USAGOLDReplies#7815806/13/02; 08:58:02

CB2. . .We are in the unique position to take payment in gold and the Kangaroo is completely acceptable tender. Aside: We have a wildfire here so large that its existing footprint would cover the entirety of Denver (and that includes one of your favorite stopping places, the famed Brown Palace Hotel -- still here, thankfully). Governor Owens assures us that the fire would be stoppedbefore it got to Denver. FEMA reps call it the worse they've ever seen. Had a call from Voyager yesterday asking if we'd like him to send as a glass of water. I told him we needed more than that. A tanker would do. As far as USAGOLD Centennial Precious Metals is concerned, we are all safe and working hard with only one employee's home vaguely in the vicinity of the fire. From what we know, the fire has turned South. . . .with 0% contained.

steady. . . .No advertising, period.

On the Perth Mint. . . . If the Perth Mint would like to answer some of the allegations made here and elsewhere, I believe they have every right to do that. We will entertain the notion of publishing an official rebuttal/position from the Perth Mint, but I don't want this to degenerate into a running battle between its detractors and defenders -- especially when the detractors can only offer hearsay as evidence, and the defenders can quote the storage agreement in defense. But under no circumstances will we allow anyone to advertise their wares here. There is no bend in the rule. I have not had extensive contact with the people at the Perth Mint save a conversation or two over the years. As far as I know, they run a straight up show and the charges appear to be baseless.

YGMPerth Mint...#7815906/13/02; 08:59:45

Has my "Apologies"...

for ever getting swept up in this bogus rumor...and at risk of comsuming 'more' of TC's time all my references to 'said' story should be removed.....YGM.
steadyno advertising#7816006/13/02; 09:11:17

ill still come here though!
lots of good stuff and hope i will make somepositive contributions once in a while
as black balde says
get out of debt...
heck he says it better ill leave it to him. not a line stealer :+)

GraefinTime to grow up...#7816106/13/02; 09:15:13

I'm glad I have been busy for the past few days and have only had time to read the good "snips" of information. However, today, I've had a bit more time and I'm finding I've missed one heck of a cat fight. Please remember this forum does not belong to us, but we are guests and our host is most gracious. We all can all do better than stoop to the level of what we most often like to complain about. is too short and be happy with what you have because you never know when it may be gone.
- Gräfin

YGM"A Story That Bears Repeating"#7816206/13/02; 09:53:19


The $24 Trillion Derivatives Monster
David Chapman
12 June 2002

This is a story that bears repeating. J. P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM-NYSE) is one of the biggest banks in the world with assets of approaching US$ 700 billion, capital of about US$ 41 billion and a market cap of US$ 71 billion. By comparison Canada's largest bank the Royal Bank of Canada (RY-TSE, NYSE has assets of about US$ 235 billion, equity of about US$ 12 billion and a market cap of about US$ 26 billion. J.P. Morgan Chase is roughly three times the size of Canada's largest bank.

But there is an area where J.P. Morgan Chase dwarfs the Royal Bank. Indeed J.P. Morgan Chase dwarfs everyone in this business. The business is derivatives. In the USA J. P. Morgan Chase is over 50% of the derivatives market. According to figures from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) as at December 31, 2001 JPM had notional amounts of derivative contracts outstanding of US$ 23,520 billion or US$ 23.5 trillion. That was out of total derivatives of reporting banks of US$ 45.4 trillion. The aforementioned Royal Bank of Canada had at the end of their second quarter a notional amount outstanding of approximately US$ 1.2 trillion.

Despite the huge notional outstandings at the end of 2001 JPM was actually down from their peak that was seen at the end of the second quarter 2001. At that time notional amounts outstanding approached US$ 30 trillion. Since then they have fallen an amazing US$ 7 trillion in only roughly six months.

Part of it relates to the merger of the two firms J.P. Morgan and Chase Manhattan that took place in 2001 as the US$ 30 trillion related to the combined firms pre merger. We would surmise that part of it was due to netting and probably derivatives transactions between the two banking institutions. Still the outstanding figure is astounding. By comparison the US GDP totals roughly US$ 10 trillion and total outstanding debt of all sectors totals just over US$ 19 trillion.

The comparison of course is somewhat unfair as the outstanding derivatives is notional amounts. Actual exposure is measured by the net credit equivalent exposure. As at December 31, 2001 the credit exposure for JPM according to their annual report was US$ 51 billion. Again by comparison the credit exposure for the Royal Bank of Canada was roughly US$ 13 billion at the end of their second quarter April 30, 2002. These figures are allocations according to credit formulas. In the event of a catastrophic unpredictable event the exposure may be considerably larger. Derivative portfolios are subject to a constant barrage of stress tests.

Derivatives are securities whose value depends on the values of other basic underlying securities. Derivatives have exploded in use over the past two decades. The include such well known instruments as futures and options which are actively traded on numerous exchanges and as well numerous over-the-counter instruments such as interest rate swaps, forward contracts in foreign exchange and interest rates, and various commodity and equity derivatives. The worldwide market is huge with an estimated size in excess of US$ 100 trillion. Everyone from the large financial institutions, governments, corporations, mutual and pension funds, to hedge funds, and large and small speculators, use derivatives. Many individual investors may also use them even if all they are doing is using them to write covered calls against their investments on the advice of their stockbroker.

The huge derivatives exposure at JPM has been the subject of a number of articles over the past few months. First its sheer size is enough to catch anyone's attention and secondly when one puts it beside the number of collapses over the past several months it seemed that every time one occurred JPM was at or near the top of the list of credit holders. Enron, Global Crossing, Kmart, Argentina were all amongst JPM's holdings that went down. JPM have said that so far all of the high profile collapses are only about 1% of its total portfolio. Still it is a concern

Cont'd @ Link.....

YGMFollowing Rumors....They're not always untrue.#7816306/13/02; 10:06:44

Don't shoot the messengers:

Excerpt from previous Chapman article::

"More questions have come to JPM since the supposed mysterious leaving of Dinsa Mehta, JPM's former head of global commodity risk management and global foreign exchange. Mr. Mehta had been with JPM for 26 years. One of his responsibilities was JPM's gold portfolio. Rumours had persisted that there was something wrong in their precious metals book. After the financial debacles of Enron, Global Crossing and Argentina all we can say is that the "House of Morgan" is still around. As for Mehta all he says is that "Conspiracy theorists are doing what they do best; provide entertainment from the sidelines". JPM is being sued in conjunction with lawsuits brought against Enron and Mr. Mehta has been named along with others to appear and provide documentation on matters related to Enron to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce."..end;

* Sometimes where there is 'Smoke' there is 'Fire'...Mr Mehta is after all in the circle of 'Fire' now, and it all started as a 'Rumor'....We all look for truth in our own ways....YGM

The VictorianWhy are the manipulators suddenly able to play these games?#7816406/13/02; 10:17:59

It used to be that gold went up as the dollar went down, and as the stock market went down. Now, the markets are down, the dollar cratered this morning -- and gold is falling. When the dollar fell today, the POG barely moved up, but as the dollar rallies a bit, the POG is heading south. This is very frustrating. It defies all logic. What perplexes me most is that the run up to 315 seemed to be almost uncontested. Those that wish to hold gold down seemed unable or unwilling to muster a formidable defense. We crashed through a few supposed resistance levels unchallenged. Why the change now? Yes, I realize the closer we get to 326, 330+ the more problems it creates, so the harder the fight will become, but I can't figure out why more defenses were not put into play from the start to cap this gold rally back at the 300 level.

More and more I understand what FOA meant when he talked about trying to win a card game when you are playing against an opponent who uses a completely different set of rules. Will gold investors give up in disgust if there are enough setbacks and lost hands in the card game? Is that our opponent's plan?

On another note, if I can stop ranting for a moment, I have a question, perhaps a stupid question, for you wise heads out there. Is it possible for the gold short sellers/derivities players to hold POG at these levels and stall the rally long enough to extricate themselves from their dangerous positions? Or are they in too deep to ever extricate themselves. I have been wondering if it is possible for them to get themselves on the other side of the equation, so that they can benefit from the rise in gold, and at that point, let the price blast upward?

WaveriderColorado Firefighters Get Help as Blaze Spreads to 90,000 Acres#7816506/13/02; 10:44:15

Here it is MK...Bloomberg Top World News....

"Colorado's largest wildfire ever spread to 90,000 acres as some of 1,800 additional firefighters from across the U.S. began manning the front lines to help contain the blaze and keep it from moving closer to Denver.

Governor Bill Owens on Monday declared a state of emergency and transferred $12.6 million in funds from the state's emergency reserve to fight the wildfires. The fires have burned more than 250,000 acres of Colorado land since April 23."

YGMVictorian#7816606/13/02; 10:44:23

Why the games?....Many essays here can answer your questions (@link) but one of the best is:

Accounting for the ESF's Gold Swaps - James Turk -
6 Jan 2002

Alot to absorb at this GATA link of essays.....YGM

USAGOLDAll. . . .#7816706/13/02; 10:51:50

I'm sure you've thought a great deal about the value of the internet over these last few years -- what it means to the culture and you and me individually. It has its strengths and weaknesses, and as all of us here can attest, it has its "moments" as well (not to mention its abuses. One of the things we as thoughtful participants in the public venue and users of this new media must get under our collective belts is how we are going to employ this technologicall media to our advantage without destroying it in the process. In this, each of us -- and all of us -- shoulders a responsibility.

There was a time a while back when we were excorciated by some of our own posters both here and at other venues over our strict rules -- and not just their existence but their strict application. "Free Speech!" they cried, "Free Speech! Anything goes. How dare you censor me or anyone else?!!?" We were told in private correspondence to stop killing the conversation. We were criticized for the "chilling" effect and our "heavy hand." In some cases, the sites where this sort of thing was published and where "anything goes" have since degenerated to the point where the links have been deleted from most "Favorites" menus. As it is, censorship was unnecessary at these sites. They literally destroyed themselves and been reduced to potential salvage (thus far the salvage operations have largely failed) and that's about the extent of it. In some cases, what started out as gold forums are hardly that anymore but posting places for every weird, untested theory imaginable -- economic, political and otherwise. Nothing wrong with all this on the face of it, it's just that the information of value to the reader can't get its head above the sea of misinformation, disinformation, propaganda, self-interest, unpaid advertisments and general looniness.

That hasn't happened here. In fact, this Forum has flourished. Why? Because we have principles. We have rules. We attend reasonably restricted subject matter. And. . . . .we've cultured a group of extraordinary contributors who play a pleasant role in the daily lives of thousands of people who come here to read every day. (I had a client tell me yesterday -- a retired Wall Streeter -- that he spends a few hours per day here reading the posts and feathering his own information nest.) The people who come here WANT us to have rules, WANT the subject matter restricted and WANT the looniness controlled. The people who come here, in the end, are actually well-heeled investors who really do want to learn about gold ownership. Really. That has been recognized elsewhere and we are constantly working to filter out advertising and want to capitalize on what we have built here -- some blatant, some cleverly disguised, but all thinking they can somehow pull the wool over our eyes.

As I was pondering this latest Forum "Moment" (centered around the Perth Mint) and reading the morning newspapers, I came across a report in the Rocky Mountain News about a speech delivered by the highly respected newsman from television news' salad years, Walter Cronkite. (NOTE: Please keep in mind, that none of what you are about to read is aimed at any particular individual but a general reflection on what we are here at USAGOLD) Mr. Cronkite was in town to address a corporate conference. He made some important comments about the nature of the internet -- this new medium. His words have strong implications for what we do here on a daily basis as he goes straight to the heart of the matter on what it means to own "posting privileges" (and they are "privileges" not "rights"). In its essence, Mr. Conkrite says what I have said on numerous occasions in these hallowed halls. With the "privilege" comes "responsibility" and that responsibility must be taken seriously.

Cronkite started out by saying that every newsman nowadays surfs the web for information. But, says Cronkite, "I'm a little bit worried about the use of the internet by people who pretend to be journalists." These people, he said, should be held to the same standards as other journalists, and "should answer to the same laws of libel the rest of us do." He went on to say that television networks have "shirked their responsibility in the past decade" to inform the public about world affairs and the actions of the government. He blames this on large corporations owning the media, interested in their entertainment (rather than information) value. "They decided the public wasn't interested (in hard news)" and cut the budgets. He concluded by saying that "it takes courage to stand up and say what the government is doing is wrong. That's more patriotic than to slavishly follow government edicts."

Presumably the inference left hanging by the Rocky Mountain News is that the internet has stepped in to fill the void. That automatically makes you, me and every other poster here a "player." Over the past several weeks, I have taken a break from writing and immersion in the gold (and world financial) scene as a commentator. In that time, the advantage of a little perspective has given me some valuable insights about this website as it connects to the firm and as an external manifestation of USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals. On the whole, I am very proud of what we have accomplished here. I am particularly proud of the posters we have been able to attract. This is one talented, thoughtful and level-headed group of people. You are greatly appreciated by the large number of readers we have -- something I hear almost every day when I pick up the telephone to talk to prospective clients. In the end, we are the "creators" of this venue as a group. How we treat it; how we deal with it; how we work toward its continuance -- in a certain sense will be the measure of us. We each have a responsibility to honor this Table Round -- its rules and mores. We know how important this venue is to many of you both as participants and lurkers. What it becomes is what you make it become -- and we are still in the process of "becoming."

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

I went back this morning and looked at the rules again. These rules were put together over several days and published the day the lights went on at this Clean, Well - Lighted Place on the internet. To me it is surprising how well they've held-up and served our purposes -- simple as they are -- and how much they've contributed to our collective educations in the area of gold and all that relates to it. I hope you all will excuse me if I repost them here to be reflected upon, not just in terms of what we all have to adhere to as posters, but to encourage a moment of reflection on how they've served to make this the highly respected Forum it is:


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- - - - - - - - -

Amazing we got to the heart of the matter all the way back in 1998. I wouldn't change a word of it. Thanks for reading my latest thoughts on the continuing evolution of this Sturdy Oaken Table.

Jimbo@The Victorian#7816806/13/02; 10:55:22

Well put, sir! I share your concerns and issues, although I probably wouldn't have stated them as well. You pointed out, rightfully, that something is very different about the June gold market. The mixed signals are very discouraging. I'm sure many gold investors will drop out if the POG doesn't rise soon (as the dollar falls in value). Golden wise ones who post here, what's your view on The Victorian's question?
Gandalf the WhiteWOWSERS !!! WHAT has gotten into the US$ ???#7816906/13/02; 11:07:03

Looks as if BIG GAMES are being played by the GIANTS !

RobotGuyGandalf and others - - - please excuse my ignorance!#7817006/13/02; 11:23:08

Consider me a goldbug's apprentice if you will. I have been reading the posts today, and I am finding them rather confusing. I don't see any drastic changes anywhere! Sure, things are fluctuating, gold, the dollar, energy, but I do not extract any sense of uneasiness from the data. To be quite honest, I'm actually glad gold has taken a bit of a rest, it merely confirms to me that the recent highs aren't falsely driven and are quite attached to the sentiment of mass investors. We have some strong cohesion! Of course I might be sitting way out in left field, and my eye doesn't have the ability to focus clearly on the infield. What's going on in there?
Today I have read words like "cratered" and "tanked", and of course "WOWSERS", but I must be missing the big picture. Doesn't every reasonably driven market fluctuate?

Curious RobotGuy.

Cheers all, and thank-you once again USAGOLD/Centennial

WaveriderUSAGold#7817106/13/02; 11:28:01

Thank you Michael for the reminder and for reiterating the forum parameters. It is a privilege to post here and something not to be abused or taken for granted. Thank you again for the opportunity to participate at this most noble table and may we all strive to maintain the Golden Standard rightfully expected.
kramrichJPM CHASE DERIVATIVES POSITION.#7817206/13/02; 11:30:49

If we go by the numbers in the article written by David Chapman on JPM Chase's gold derivative positon it looks like their mark-to-market loss is $5.66 billion dollars since December 31, 2001. Assuming the equivalent of 149 million (probably less now) ounces of gold at $279. I remember when their notional gold derivatives position was $59 billion in early 2001. JPM is liquidating their position as quickly as they can. As of 12/31/2001 it was $41 billion and probably a lot less today. This is good for gold. The smaller their position the less fight gold will encounter on its way up.

6-11-02 THUR AFTER NY SPOT CLOSE OF $ 317.50

A possibly bullish sign for the spot gold price is the

fact that NY trading today through to the close kept

to a minimum of $ 1 over Wed's low of about $316.


Tommy PSay your prayers folks#7817406/13/02; 11:43:12

No mention of Gold but good article, must read between the lines.



6-13-02 * THUR AFTER NY SPOT CLOSE OF $ 317.50

A possibly bullish sign for the spot gold price is the

fact that NY trading today through to the close kept

to a minimum of $ 1 over Wed's low of about $316.

NOTED: Black Blade's $315 spot price as a bottom

in an earlier post. If gold will hold $ 315

spot in Far Eastern trading tonight this will

be additionally bullish.


Sierra MadreSierra reporting from Glasgow...#7817606/13/02; 11:59:12

Sierra is in the UK attending the WAFA shindig (WAFA is the World Association of Flower Arrangers, for your info.) as assistant to his wife who participates in that affair.

Glasgow - a monument to former days of glory. A city full of august buildings, formerly home to banks, insurance firms, shipping, engineering, naval construction, etc. now empty except for pizza parlors and boutiques. The pedestrian traffic downtown is lively, but - the tremendous spirit of enterprise that animated this place, is gone. Production is gone: consumption is in. You would hardly believe the QEII was built and launched here.

The construction of ships has evaporated. The city strives to reinvent itself as a "cultural center".

Met with two Argentinian ladies attending the WAFA meeting and I asked them about Argentina. They told me the situation is tragic, they see no future at the moment, for their youngsters in Argentina. "The doorbell rings constantly, people are asking for FOOD." This is what impresed me most.

This is what malinvestment comes down to. This is the BOTTOM LINE. When people have to beg for food, that is the final outcome of years of monetary and financial lying, deceit, fraud and self-delusion by midget-minded men who are only "going along to get along". Argentina, mirror for the West.

I gave the ladies a two minute lecture on the necessity for sound money, real money with intrinsic worth. The message seemed to go over their heads. They STILL haven't got it.

The two ladies are able to travel, because they are of those who could see that trouble was coming, and placed funds outside the country in time.

They too, shall be shorn of their remaining wealth. They cannot see that the almighty dollar's days are numbered. Nor what the collapse of the dollar means for the world's economy.

And now, Brazil is having hiccups. "Interesting times" as B.B. says.

Gold down on receding fears of nuclear war between Ind/Pak. A good chance to purchase some more, cheap. The great majority of purchasers of gold in this world are not capable of reading a graph, nor do they care about trendlines. This has the advantage of putting them out of reach of manipulation.

I expect gold at $350 by mid-July. But OK with me if it's not.

Sierra Madre in Glasgow.

Gandalf the WhiteSir Curious RobotGuy's QUESTION#7817706/13/02; 12:18:14

RobotGuy (06/13/02; 11:23:08MT - msg#: 78170)
Gandalf and others - - - please excuse my ignorance!
Do not even think that you have a level of ignorance !! AFTER all, you are here and we are all learning. My "WOWSERS", related to the VOLATILITY of the Forex Markets, BIG swings up and down ! HUGE dumps of Contracts on the COMEX at times of "low attendance". Floor Traders cleaning their books of StopLoss entries, for their own account. The unavailability of PHYSICAL Gold causing a premium over SPOT. Things are getting "OUT OF HAND" IMHO !!
Like SIR Black Blade says: "Interesting Times !!!"
Thanks for the request to better explain myself.

Brett WoodsSideline Entertainment#7817806/13/02; 12:27:38

Ain't nuthin goin on Robot guy. People just board during the lull. That graph stuff is trader noise. Nothings changed yet.

Maybe I been readin' too much Tom Clancy but I think Densa Mehta might a been a sleeper, and the 9-11 attack on the twin towers not just symbolic but a way to eliminate guys in the top slots and replace them with more sleepers.

Focus of the attack - wealth. That's what them sandys round the world resent. So maybe the bomb ain't nuclear or bio, but economic. Steered out of Beriut, decades in the implementation.

YGMTommyP Posting...Not to be Missed>#7817906/13/02; 12:45:34

Anthony Sutton, in "The Federal Reserve Conspiracy," added, "Nothing is more dangerous to the power of the elite than the public discovery and understanding of the PRIVATE control of the money supply."

The Time of Andrew Sutton's revelation has "Arrived"...YGM

Thanks Tommy...Another 'Keeper'

sector@kranrich Sorry...JPM has ADDED to their Gold Derivatives#7818006/13/02; 12:53:05

They are under great strress. Their own field officers have said they have "Lost control" of the gold market.

The Q2 2002 Office of Comptroller of the Currency report is just out and shows:

Q1 2002 Q2 2002 [$Billions]
41.049 45.234

These gold derivatives are a gold loan book according to a reliable source.
This means that JPM has loaned 10s of billions of dollars worth of gold with varying that could only have come from one of two places, The US Treasury or the vaults of the G-10.

The BIS numbers are out as well and they too reveal a big increase in gold derivatives from $203 Billion to $231 Billion. This is because the "Loans" that constitute the derivatives are not being paid back. These derivative loans are being carried as "Receivables". Moreover they keep growing as a big problem for the US and the G-10.

The FASB and GAAP rules are being stretched beyond limits to define an irretrievable gold loan as a "Receivable" [Irretrievable at the original loan price, not to mention getting the metal at ANY price given the huge supply deficits].

The dynamic is not one of supply and demand so much as one of regulatory discovery. The cabal's golden shell game is increasingly visible to the World thanks to GATA, Reg Howe and many others. In the Enron debacle it was the ratings agencies that pulled the plug. One minute Enron was a darling the next they were felons.

It will be this way when the IMF accountants, Moody's or another whistle blower pulls the plug on the gold loan scam. It could happen tomorrow...or next year. The IMF guys alrteady know what JPM is doing is wrong and said so in their 1999 Santiago Chile meeting on the subject of IMF accountancy. With all the heat on Argentina they are under a hot light these days.

See... the cabal needs to continue to loan [To then be sold] their gold treasuries in order to suppress the price of gold. As the demand keeps rising their treasury gold stocks keep dwindling. They are bleeding badly.

The Japanese alone can smash them with huge gold demands and will smash them as soon as the yen starts falling once again.

bob leppoFannie Mae signal#7818106/13/02; 13:15:17

I mentioned a few days ago that if Fannie Mae stock broke below $76 that it could signal problems keeping US housing prices propped up. A drop in Fannie Mae stock could signal Fannie Mae may not be able to borrow as much money to fuel its mortgage purchases in the future. Because Fannie Mae is so leveraged (a tiny piece of equity supporting a growing mountain of debt) and so responsible for the buying of new mortgages in the US I feel a slowdown in Fannie Mae buying of new mortgages could cause a break in the housing market all by itself.

Today Fannie Mae did drop below $76 (interday) and I have shorted some.

TownCrierLook at the top graph -- gold in dollars, euros, Swissies, and Yen#7818206/13/02; 13:40:26

Gold is seen rising in ALL currencies. As a dollar operator, does it make you nervous at all that it is rising the fastest in terms of dollars among this group?

By the way, if the Argentine peso were included on this graph, the graph would have to be 15 TIMES(!) taller than it currently is shown in order to chart the relative price movement.

Gold has been serving its owners well.


TownCrierJim Puplava reminds us in his latest update, "There is nothing new under the sun."#7818306/13/02; 13:59:12


As our mounting trade deficits continue to grow, the world will tire of financing our deficits. That is what the decline in the dollar is telling us. The U.S. now owes the rest of the world a net $4.12 trillion. Foreigners now own close to 40% of all U.S. Treasuries issued, 24% of U.S. domestic corporate bonds, and about 15% of our equity markets. Most of the $8 trillion U.S. assets held through foreign ownership is liquid. This means it can be sold and repatriated. No nation has ever been able to escape the consequences of large trade deficits.

...this period should be used to dump overvalued stocks. Get liquid and load up on gold, silver, and energy as they are dumped by weak hands. If you think a new era is upon us, or that the good 'ole days are returning, please read what I wrote on January 2, 2000 before you buy into the balderdash of "Don't worry ~ be happy!"

------(click link for full text)-------

Black BladeTownCrier - Graphs#7818406/13/02; 14:10:16

Thanks for the link to the graphs. I have been keeping my eye on Brazil. The Real looks like the next Latin American currency to take a fall. They are in a campaign period as national elections draw near. The leftists appear to have the edge and this is making the Brazilian markets edgy. There is also a well found concern that Brazil like Argentina will default on their debt. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

miner49erGold Deposits - Thoughts and Questions regarding another Concept of Gold Ownership...#7818506/13/02; 14:21:00

[First - MK - Thank you for your well stated remarks on the purpose of the USAGold Forum. On this topic, I want to make clear my perspective has nothing to do with any rumors. The rumors caused me to look in general at depository / certificate held gold, and the concept of "unallocated / unsegregated / pooled" accounts in particular. These questions should be asked by investors. In general, they would apply to any depository institution. So please allow me to ask them. I have no agenda for or against any particular depository, but would like to see these concepts illuminated so people understand more about the different types of "physical gold."]

The questions I posited yesterday remain, and investors need to be aware of them and have them answered. I will repost my questions with a few others and comments:

1) If every entity that had a certificate of Unallocated ownership showed up at their depository institute one day and asked to see the portion that belonged to them, would any of them have to be shown the same metal twice?

2) If you elect to utilize the services of a precious metals depository, are you aware of their auditing and accounting practices? Do they audit the physical inventory of their precious metals? I mean, do they actually lay their eyes on the stuff, and count it? Do they do random assaying? Maybe none do. But they should…

I'm sure procedural and bookkeeping audits will look good, but people are concerned that all the metal is there that they believe is there.

3) In the event of institutions "backed" by government "guarantees", I would guess that the Government is only providing cash insurance. At what price level is the metal insured? If they were to reimburse at the current market valuation in an insurable event, and gold were to be 10x what it is today (or even 3x), would it not severely strain the insurer? Would they not only be able to reimburse at a fraction.

What if they perhaps should guarantee metal replacement? Where are they going to get it in any large quantity? They could perhaps obtain it in small amounts to cover small accidents, but in any major catastrophe, I think they would be hard pressed to make good.

4) Unallocated storage is assumed by most small and new investors to be the same as having ownership of an actual, already-made bar or coin, that is physically in existence in the storage facilities of the holding institute.

They also typically believe it has only one owner and no burdensome additional claims. They believe they are saving some money by not purchasing title to specific bars or coins, but are happy to simply hold their single-ownership portion in a pool.

The wording from a particular depository's website regarding their definition of "unallocated," was a bit unclear:

"Unallocated (unsegregated) Coins or Bars - You have title to precious metal deposited in a metal account and deliverable in a fabricated form. You pay the quoted precious metal cost and fabrication charges at the time of your purchase. You pay NO [emphasis theirs] storage fees on this option."

The operative word here is "deliverable." Why not keep the same verb tense as "deposited" and use the word "delivered?" Why the distinction? Also, the phrase: "You have title to precious metal deposited in a metal account" is unclear when compared with their "allocated" account definition that is so specific about the physical storage part (again from this depository's website):

"Allocated (segregated) Coins or Bars - You own title to specific coins and/or bars, which are placed in a PHYSICAL [emphasis mine] form in the PMCP storage facility..." If Unallocated accounts are not necessarily in a physical form, shouldn't that distinction be made? And if they are, why not also state this in the Unallocated definition?

Now back to the word "deliverable." Does this mean the metal is already fabricated at the time of purchase, and I am purchasing an aboveground unit of marketable, assayed, and appropriate fineness precious metal? Or has it yet to be acquired (or mined), actually, and what would be had is just the depository's promise to deliver it, fabricated, should the owner decide to take delivery?

Also, there is a curious differentiation that perhaps someone can help me with. There are two types of Unallocated storage available at this institution:

1) Coins and Bars, and
2) Bullion... What is "bullion" exactly? Are not bars bullion? And why does the purchaser pay for fabrication on coins and bars, but there is no mention of fabrication charges for bullion? Why not specifically mention this in the definition to make it perfectly clear? Otherwise, I'm not sure what the benefit is to this type of account. It burdens me with a minimum purchase requirement, and is not apparently in the typically recognized form of coins and bars. There is no additional benefit distinguished here. If the benefit is perhaps just cost, then why not just say there are "Unallocated small" and "Unallocated large" accounts? What advantages does this type of account hold?

5) Assuming as newer investors do, that their Unallocated account contains actual, already-made, properly assayed and fine metal, and owned by a single owner, and not under the potential claim of any other party, why would I even want an Allocated account? The only difference I can see is that in an Allocated account I own the bar over on the left with the serial number OU812, and in an Unallocated account I simply own any of a roomful of identical, perfectly fungible bars.

Since I am most likely doing business with the depository for the express purpose of, well… depositing (i.e., NOT planning to take delivery), what do I care which bar I own? They are all alike. And even if I do, I've likely never seen the one I own anyway, so if it's just a bar, and one is just as good as the other, why do I care?

So... with that understanding, it would make sense for people to opt for Unallocated storage.

But... Unallocated or Allocated, these presumably actual, already-made, properly assayed and fine metal bars, coins, and bullion items still had to be made, and still have to collect dust somewhere. Why do I want to pay for it to be made, and to collect dust just so I can know I have the bar on the left with the serial number OU812? Why not just pay for its fabrication with an Unallocated bars and coins account, and let someone else assume the costs of dust collection? Or better still, why not just have an Unallocated bullion account, and let someone else pay for it to be made (into whatever bullion is), and let someone else pay for it to collect dust until I'm ready to dispose of it?

So my questions again from yesterday:

6) What am I really paying for in Allocated storage? And...

7) What am I not really getting in Unallocated storage? And...

8) Who is paying/assuming these costs, if not me? And, why?

If these costs are assumed as part of the true daily business operations, and they deploy some of this Unallocated lot for their day-to-day, then it would seem an inefficient way to perform this after a certain point. The businesses only need so much in their daily operations. After that, the extra Unallocated lots, if they are indeed mined, fabbed and sitting around collecting dust, would become a cost burden. So...

9) What is the advantage to this aspect of their business model? It makes no sense to make something, and let me purchase it for the conceptual market value ("quoted precious metal cost") of the commodity itself, but not charge me for the real costs of making it into something marketable (sellable), or the recurring costs of holding onto it for me.

10) What's in it for them? Once more, if in Unallocated storage, my presumably actual, already-made, properly assayed and fine metal bars, coins, and bullion items have been paid for at "the quoted precious metal cost", and then they just jolly-well hold on to it for me, after making it for me for free (at least in these so-called bullion items), what's the benefit to them?

There is no business justification for this type of operation that I can see. As it appears, it just does not seem profitable, plain and simple.

The metal must be used by someone else for something else.

It seems to be a lot like your savings account at your bank. You put money in, and it is accounted under your name (and unallocated), and you can retrieve it under some stipulated demand basis, but if everyone lined up at the bank at once, and demanded their cash, the bank could not deliver. It is obvious here though that they have to do something with it to make it worth their while (loan it out in the bank's case).

They don't just hold our cash because they like you and me so much. And Unallocated precious metal storage accounts, without appropriate service fees, on the surface appear to be no different. The owner of an Unallocated account does not seem to be the only entity that has claim to any given portion of this metal.

If it is otherwise, I would like to receive the education, so if someone can address this, or any of these questions (not regarding any specific depository necessarily, but the concept of Unallocated [unsegregated, or pooled] storage accounts generally), I think we would all benefit. I would...

As the countess Gräfin always says, "Peace!"


Black BladeArgentina's economy presents little to smile about either#7818606/13/02; 14:22:38

New money for Argentina 'unlikely'


Argentina has admitted it is unlikely to worm any new money out of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a result of talks going on in Buenos Aires. The beleaguered country is desperate for fresh aid of perhaps $9bn (£6.2bn) to stabilise its economy. But currently the best that can be hoped for is probably that the payments due this year will be rescheduled, a senior ruling party figure said.

Black Blade: Considering the IMF record, I am surprised that they do no throw away good money after bad. The situation is so bad that there are reports of the country's poor who are unable to find enough food at the city landfills are eating toads, rats, and cats in order to survive. In a word – "GRIM". As always, get out of debt (and stay out of debt, stash enough cash for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program.

Black BladeBrazil dispels Argentine parallel#7818706/13/02; 14:30:36


Brazil's president, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, has tried to calm fears over the country's economy as its currency plunged anew. The Brazilian real slumped almost 3% against the dollar during Wednesday's trading - an extremely heavy fall for a currency. The confidence of foreign investors has been shaken by the uncertainties surrounding the country's October elections and doubts about the government's ability to rollover maturing debts.

Black Blade: El Presidente Cardoso is trying to "put lipstick on this pig". Brazil's currency crisis will likely amplify. If Brazilians were to watch Argentina closely, those who learn vicariously will get prepared as that day of reckoning approaches. They would do well to accumulate Gold and Silver.

The Hoopleminer#7818806/13/02; 14:40:12

My bank apparently doesn't even keep $10,000 laying around as I have to give them 24 hr notice to "round it up". I can connect the dots and deduce anything unallocated seems like a scary proposition if SHTF. Fractional banking - a Ponzi delight.
Usul@Gandalf - Big games of Giants (The dollar)#7818906/13/02; 14:46:06

ANOTHER, Sun Nov 23 1997 09:18

"When a thousand hungry lions fight over one scrap of food, small dogs should hide with whats in their belly".

Oh, and Sierra: Did you stroll down Sauchiehall street? It is an archetypal street of the "common man", the man in Sauchiehall Street being the equivalent of the man in the Clapham Omnibus- also known as Joe Six Pack. Nowadays, it is not terribly different from any street in any town- full of consumer parlours in which people hooked on easy credit can sign away their future income. A reckoning lies ahead- Eddie George has already warned of the need to raise interest rates to choke of an overheated house price fuelled boom. Of course, he spoke of things that "might" have to be done, hoping to jawbone the consumer down, without actually having to raise rates. Perhaps he is afraid of a catastrophic collapse in consumer largesse if they feel the burden of their debt grow heavier.

R PowellSector#7819006/13/02; 14:47:19

Thanks for the info. Can you provide a link to the story?
When any monetary value or number is assigned to a derivatives position that number must be calculated at a specific time. This is necessary because the derivatives themselves are constantly changing in dollar value in accordance with the dollar value of the underlying commodity. The derivatives "derive" there value (and their name) from the value of something else.
Thus derivatives are "marked-to-market" on a time schedule. Most small accounts are thus marked for tax purposes at the end of Dec. 31 of each year. Large corporations probably mark-to-market for quarterly reports.
I mention this as I'm wondering about the idea that JPM's derivative position has increased from 203 billion to 231 billion as reported. I'm guessing this number is the mark-to-market value as of a specific date. It is entirely possible that the recent rise in POG has caused this 28 billion dollar increase which tells us nothing about whether JPM has increased or decreased the number of positions. Also, does this reflect all derivatives or just gold positions?
Also, I've long wondered about Butler's claim that four or fewer large players hold the tremendous short position in silver. When he counts JPM as one of these four, are the silver short positions held by JPM for JPM or are the positions held by JPM representing hundreds or thousands of smaller (individual) accounts? The lack of market transparency and misunderstanding of what some numbers represent can cause confusion. I have no doubt that JPM and others hold outrageous amounts of derivatives. My question is whose? Does this number refer to gold only?
One last thought, if all were offset tomorrow, what would be the net result? Often a futures position might be insured from great loss by use of an option (a derivative covering a derivative) This may be recorded as two derivatives but they might very well offset each other. Example: One long Dec. gold future position bought at $320 covered by a Dec. 320 put option. When POG exceeds $320 plus the one time cost (premium) of the option, then the position has positive value. If POG is below $320, the future position can be sold (the right conveyed by the option) for $320 assuring no lose other than the premium paid for the 320 put option. This is a simple example. Derivatives positions can get so complicated with ever changing values and different expiration dates and various strategies as to be impossible to figure out. Like stocks, no profit or loss occurs until taken, but unlike stocks, derivatives are time sensitive assets.
I ask these questions as I'm curious and as I'm not convinced (from lack of information) as to the much talked about coming derivatives' crash. That it can happen, I've no doubt. That we all should worry without searching for more information does not strike me as a good idea.
TIA for links and more info.

YGMAllocated and Unallocated....#7819106/13/02; 14:54:59

As per LBMA...

Gold accounts at a bullion house may be allocated or unallocated. The unallocated account is most typical. One holds on deposit a specific number of ounces of gold, but these ounces of gold are not identified with any individual physical gold bars. These unallocated accounts may or may not bear interest, and may or may not have insurance and storage charges. All clearing accounts are unallocated accounts, and contain identical (hypothetical) 400 oz. bars.

Most gold trading takes place by paper transfers between unallocated accounts. Bookkeeping entries avoid the transactions costs and security risks of moving the actual metal. Traders clear their trades with one another through book entry transfers in or out of accounts at one or more clearing members, while clearing members clear their net trades with one another through their gold accounts at the Bank of England, as well as by physical gold transfers.

Allocated accounts, by contrast, contain individual gold bars with given serial numbers. In effect, allocated accounts are safe-keeping or custody accounts. Such accounts do not bear interest, are normally subject to charges, and may not be used as clearing accounts.

JimboExcuse my ignorance, too!#7819206/13/02; 15:03:07

RobotGuy, perhaps gold has taken a rest, but the value of my gold stocks hasn't. They've cratered during the past two days, which demonstrates, I believe, the enormous schizophrenia of the markets. For instance, gold stocks took a big dip on Wednesday in after-hour's trading following the Dow's last-minute upward resurgence. Then, today, they also went down when the Dow trended deep in the other direction. What does this mean? Wasn't there sufficient negative economic news to convince gold traders to pick up some bargains? Or do they know something I don't, such as a POG decline is in the offing? (I'm getting so paranoid about all this!) Please, someone explain.
kramrichSector#7819306/13/02; 15:04:34

Thanks for the update. The reduction of their notional from $59 billion to $41 billion must have been a one time adjustment do to the combination of JPM and Chase positions last year. JPM must be really sweating it right now. If they can't get their derivatives under control, I'm sure the Fed will bail them out somehow. Which worries me. I've tried to come up with the possible scenarios of a Fed rescue and how they would affect the POG. I agree with you that this thing will probably blow when one of the rating agencies takes a good look at their books. I'm surprised that Moody's or S&P have not let the cat out of the bag this far into the game. These agencies must know whats up with JPM but they are quiet. Why? With increasing visibility as you say hopefully something will come of it. Still bothers me that the Fed will probably bail these people out. Just goes to show others that if you blow it, BLOW IT BIGTIME and get out of jail free. This is going to keep happening over and over until the Fed says enough is enough!
Gandalf the WhiteJimbo's Statement ! Tis not Ignorance, Jimbo !!#7819406/13/02; 15:28:57

Jimbo (06/13/02; 15:03:07MT - msg#: 78192)
Excuse my ignorance, too! ----
I have for a long long time had this DREAM, that after a large run-up in a GROUP of Company's stock prices, that the paper owners "safeguard" their potential paper profits with what is called a "STOPLOSS", or instruction given to their Stock Broker (Do they still call them that ?) to sell their stock at a certain price.
The Stock Brokers send the Order (Sell when the stock hits the "safeguard" price) or STOPLOSS number to the Floor Trader or "SPECIALIST" (aka "Bookie") who enters it into his Order Book for that Company, and matches BUY and SELL orders on these certain stocks from these Order BOOKS.
Now guess who knows best which way the wind is blowing ?
The "SPECIALIST" can, for his own account, when there are no offers, OFFER the prices that trigger the sale of a STOPLOSS, WHICH thereby trigger another STOPLOSS order and so on and on and on, UNTIL there are no more STOPLOSS orders on the BOOK. Just why do you think that the Bookie wants this stuff that no one else wants ? ;)
PLEASE someone, tell me that my DREAM is not possible.

TownCrierHave you visited the latest installment of the 'Central Bank Insider'?#7819506/13/02; 15:31:04


[Karl Otto] Pöhl confessed that most central bankers were originally suspicious of the euro project and saw it as an imposition on central bank independence -- without a politician like [Jacques] Delors, European Monetary Union would not have materialised.

-----(click URL for more)-------

The source of impetus will probably come as a surprise to a person or two who cling to the fanciful notion that central bankers somehow run the world. They don't, but to be sure, some of them have an incredible vantage point on what is really going on here and there. Information has always been the cornerstone of the banker's industry.


HuskyJimbo#7819606/13/02; 15:35:50

This is poker Jimbo. You're holding all the aces. Don't look at what's in the pot if it makes you feel giddy. It won't last much longer. The dealer only has so many cards. Soon, he'll have to gather 'em up and shuffle again.
Chap XJimbo#7819706/13/02; 15:38:06

Be patient.....They WILL come back. You can count on it....
TownCrierMore from the 'Central Bank Insider'#7819806/13/02; 15:43:16

You will find this further down in the report (from earlier in the month).

On Argentina:

"Rumours are circulating furiously around Buenos Aires that the head of Argentina's central bank Mario Blejer's resignation is imminent. ... Talking to the local media, Blejer clarified that he had not in fact resigned yet (at the time this commentary was sent out), but cast serious doubt on the prospect of his remaining much longer in the present circumstances, especially if the economy ministry refuses to force holders of frozen term deposits to swap them for bonds. He obviously does not want to be around when the economy is set upon by the hyperinflation that he says is inevitable if politicians do not follow his advice, which at the moment they do not seem to be willing to do.

Already this week, two of the bank's seven directors have resigned for "personal reasons" ... Central bank staff are also severely frustrated because they are frequently bypassed in negotiations between the government's economic team and commercial banks who are desperately seeking a feasible way of lifting banking restrictions. The central bank predicts grave consequences if it continues to be ignored. It says it will not be long before the peso reaches a value of 5 pesos to the dollar, while monthly inflation is certain to hit double digits, and 40% of banks will close. For its part, the economy ministry alleges that there is a "conspiracy" amongst the central bank's directorate to ensure that their current plans fail."

ArcticfoxTownCrier (06/13/02; 13:59:12MT - msg#: 78183)#7819906/13/02; 16:13:35

TownCrier, CNBC had an "expert" guest on their program the other day and he was not concerned at all over the rising US trade deficit. His thoughts were that the US dollar was held all over the world as a reserve currency and therefore would not be affected like any other country's currency. But the best that I have heard in a while is the talking heads now stating that the economy and the stock market are in a state of "disconnect". I always thought that the stock market (even though one has to question how "free" the markets are) was a leading indicator for the direction the economy was taking. Maybe this "disconnect" will be incorporated into the next paradigm theory. Gold goes down a few bucks and the talking heads are preaching that the metal is going to tank, broad markets settle back 50 to 60% and bottoms are being called all the way down. Best advice is to turn off the TV and get out the financial history books and don't believe for a minute that all the rules as applying to economic theory are changing as many would have you believe...
Pizz@Jimbo#7820006/13/02; 16:25:45

Jimbo, the stock market and gold are not inversly related over the very short term, and some will even argue they're not over the long term. In other words, they can both go up or down at the same time for no apparent reason or they can act inversly, or any combination in between.

As far as the stock market is concerned, we have four major averages (S&P 500, 100, Dow, & NASDAQ) all at the lows of the day and all at major round numbers. All the indicators that I watch say we should break these on the downside over the next couple days, (how far down I don't know, but concensus seems to be the Sept 01 lows.) My weekly and monthly indicators say we will probably start a summer rally off these lows.

Gold and gold stocks (right now) are the inverse of this pattern, with the daily indicators ready to rally, but the weekly and monthly indicators show down or sideways action for 8 to 12 weeks.

If you follow any financial news, a good many analysts say the same thing, and it's because they watch the same momentum, stochastic, and moving average indicators that I do.

The spot price of gold is a different story. We have what appears to be a battle between the longs, and a herd of shorts trying to cover. IMHO this should keep the spot price of gold around the present price or at worst 305 or so
(which is really around 285 without the 7% decline in the dollar over the last 3 months).

Jimbo, IMHO, you need to be buying the hard stuff for the long term and staying away from the paper. Please do not take offense, but your temperment from your last post reflects that you may have more money in the paper game than you can afford to lose.


ArcticfoxArch Crawford#7820106/13/02; 16:47:56

Arch Crawford was just on CNBC reading the stars and preaching doom and gloom for the markets (really bad between 06/20 and 06/25). Commentator stated that if Crawford kept making predictions and pushing forward the dates than he would eventually be correct. I was waiting for Crawford to smugly state "right back at you"..Anyway Crawford's response was that he was short and was ranked 6th out of ### on returns, so there..
R PowellBookies they are#7820206/13/02; 17:42:06

Gandalf, you're exactly right about the traders running the price up or down a little to trigger "stop" orders. This provides good fun on quiet days for floor traders. These may be orders to buy or sell and may be triggered by raising or lowering the price. Some orders will exit positions and some will initiate new ones. "Stop" orders become market orders as soon as the stop price is touched. There are many reasons for their use.
Imho when silver recently broke through $4.80 it triggered a whole bunch of buy orders placed by technical traders who had seen POS hit and retreat from 480 time after time. When POS broke through, they wanted in. I think there are probably a bunch of buy orders sitting just above $330 in gold right now.
Have you ever seen the movie "Trading Places" where the two old commodity traders (Don Amache and ?) explain to Eddie Murphy exactly what their business is about. Then they ask if he can comprehend the business to which Murphy replies, "Yeh, you guys are bookies." Amache smiles and says, "I told you he'd understand!" Who played Amache's brother and partner?? Good movie.
BC BN and BSilver too

CoBra(too)As we should try to mobilize the rest of the - #7820306/13/02; 17:45:47

Fire Brigade to Colorado - we're squabbling about an absolutely senseless IOU idea in terms of certificates of ownwership in PM's, in SDR's and finally in SDR- Certificates - maybe - an equivalent of (ancient) Ft. Knox Equivalent!??! ...

Save Colorado and extinguish the fires - though, as it seems the efforts have been not even been localized - ...

... and the problem is ... whatever the full faith and ... whatever in the power of a free (colony of - let me remind you of 1776) is - is seemingly forgotten - or rotten!

... Would be neat if you guys find your constitution - again - and then -... maybe we may be able to follow in the footsteps of your founding fathers - once again ---

In the MEAN time - we all - but try to be nice- , though get out from under the terrorist act - as it may end up as a homeland security ... a la' - Gestapo, which in the end is not too different from FBI or CIA and the new HSA ...Looks like the ultimate time to buy Security - Gold and not the hoods, who're goin' to "secure" your last liberties ...

- May be time for some of you to backtrack - No, not only Winnie the Poo - as he started to establish TAO - and so do I and you (don't care?) cb2

PS- Sorry Colorado Friends - my buckett is a splash apart ...

slingshotSiege Engine #7820406/13/02; 18:02:14

Gold above $300.00

The attack was swift and its intentions well hidden. Perpetrated in the dead of night when all was peaceful and calm filled the encampment. The first rays of sunlight shine down between the trees and upon the destruction. A great machine laid waste by simple fire and the smell of smoke betrays the wood from which it was built. Eventhough the attack was a heavy blow the Goldbugs have not run. One by one they form ranks again. And once again beat their shields and yell,FREE GOLD, FREE GOLD. They look upon the tower badly damage but still standing. Their hope of having two points of attack
vanished upon the wind. Now it will be another costly assault upon the front gate. They know the Lord of the castle is laughing at them. His men have forfilled his plan with only a small price to pay.
The rest of the day the Goldbugs discuss their war plans.
To the west dark clouds gather. Thunder can be heard in the distance and flashes of light warns of its coming.

R PowellPizz // Jimbo#7820506/13/02; 18:06:13

Thanks Pizz for the technical analysis. I agree and am amazed that I've absorbed enough TA to have an opinion. I think POS was so happy at being able to finally break through 480 that she kept running right up to 510 where she got dizzy and retreated to 480 support to catch her breath. I'll be one sad puppy if 480 doesn't hold!

Jimbo, I agree with Pizz in that if you are uncomfortable with your paper holdings or the amount of them, then you might sleep better if you had less at risk.
I'd wait for an upturn to reduce your position. I too think they've come close to this bottom and you don't want to sell low however, no one can say for sure! Just opinion!
Remember though, if you can wait until they've run up some, then old man greed will appear and you will not want to sell. Fear on the lows causes selling urges, not exuberance on the highs. But if you don't reduce the position on the next runup, then you'll have to suffer again through the next downturn. When the time is right, how about turning some paper profit into metal in hand? You'll feel better and Michael + Company are excellent people to deal with. BTW, ounce for ounce, you can buy well over 60 times as much silver as you can gold. (smile)
Please take this and everything I say as just one poor man's thoughts- not investment advice, of course.

R PowellArcticfox#7820606/13/02; 18:19:02

Trade deficit? Hey, the analyst is right isn't he? I mean, it's only a billion dollars per day. The Fed can print paper money faster than that. Besides, they have a backup system in which they creat money digitally in case the printing presses can't keep up. I'm thinking that if they print enough so that every man, woman and child in the world has at least a few million, then I'll be able to pay off the house mortgage!!

SiochainTonorrow #7820706/13/02; 18:30:59

Hmmm...they didn't replay yesterday's afternoon pattern of dropping stock prices with heavy hand despite gold being lower fact it was interesting to watch Level II where it showed some large volume on both buy & sell....first to keep price down...but when push came to shove toward end of day,,,,both rose in several key stocks. Also Thomson's I-Watch showed some heavy Institutional buy interests....and then the twilight big drop tonight now gold is up a little

Seems to me, that we may be getting ready to see gold start to rise again

sector@kramrich It's true that JPM dropped a big $19 Billion in Gold Derivatives...#7820806/13/02; 18:56:44

...but they most likely "swapped" the gold debt with another BIS chump.

Thus leaving the same or even MORE Worldwide gold "Loaned". That is the crucial perspective from which to judge the future.

The cabal falls deeper into an inescapable pit each day the price of gold stays above it's loan value of about $260-$280. Moreover they must KEEP loaning and then selling their treasuries to maintain this absurd charade.

All that "Loaned" gold (Estimated to be at least 10,000 tonnes) is a flat loss. It's worse because the loss has no upper limit since the price of gold can climb as high as it wants.

Imagine $1,000 per ounce gold and 10,000 tonnes of gold that was loaned at $275. For each ounce of debt the central bank gold loan loss is $725. Even the most reckless auditors must take notice of this unrecognized risk position sooner or later. Indeed it just may be a young JPM risk manager who stops the merry-go-round.

The punters are still calling the gold loan positions "Receivables". When pigs fly.

All this stretching and faking further exposes their heinous manipulation game to scrutiny and…Ultimate Justice.

slingshotCobra(too) Msg # 78203#7820906/13/02; 18:59:16


The Constitution Is not lost. It is in the Hearts of 2.5 million gun owners. I would say a large standing army within our country. If they own Gold all the better for freedom.
1776 is not dead.
WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam and any other war for freedom is still alive with us OLD FARTS. Despite the school system and its meager teaching of U.S.History the Constitution is very much alive and well. Gun owners teach more than just the Second Amendment.

Try not to worry so much about it.

Black BladeU.S. Economy: Retail Sales, Producer Prices Decline in May#7821006/13/02; 19:03:56


Washington, June 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in May, producer prices declined for the second month in a row and the job market remained lackluster, making it likely Federal Reserve policy makers will wait months before raising interest rates.

Black Blade: It would appear that the great hopes for the "consumer driven" recovery were over optimistic. Some nitwit economists say it is because it was cold - HUH?! Let's face reality here - the consumer is tapped out and in face of the growing number of layoffs this economic recovery is dead. As always, get out of debt (and stay out of debt), stash enough cash for several months expenses, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and start a nonperishable food and basic necessities storage program. Because it isn't going to get any better anytime soon.

Black BladeCrude Oil Rises as Norwegian Oil Workers Threaten to Strike#7821106/13/02; 19:16:43


New York, June 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose more than 3 percent as oil workers in Norway, the world's third-biggest exporter, threatened to walk out on Monday in a wage dispute. Norway in March supplied 272,000 barrels a day to the U.S., or 3 percent of the nation's imports, government figures show. Oil prices fell 11 percent in the past month as U.S. inventories rose. ``There's been a lot of crude oil coming to the U.S. but it's looking like arrivals will fall in July,'' said Juha Laiho, a Houston-based energy trader for Finnish oil company Fortum Oyj. ``There will be a lot less North Sea oil coming this way.'' Crude oil for July delivery rose as much as 78 cents, or 3.2 percent, to $25.42 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest gain in a month. Prices were down 12 percent from a year ago.

Black Blade: Venezuela has revealed its intention to cut back production and OPEC has hinted that the organization will extend the production cuts for the rest of the year.

Black BladeSearching For An Honest CEO#7821206/13/02; 19:30:08


Scandalous fact by scandalous fact, each revelation further saps the confidence of the average investor in the stock market and brings into question the trustworthiness of entire industries, such as energy, finance, telecommunications, and now biotechnology. With executive compensation gains since 1990 reportedly running at more than four times the growth of the underlying earnings of corporate America, investors are correctly wondering whether this is the biggest period of corporate corruption since the days of the robber barons at the turn of the last century.

Black Blade: Confidence in corporate America is at an all time low because of rampant executive corruption. The foxes (boards of directors) are guarding the hen houses (corporate check books). Searching for an honest CEO? Good luck.

PizzR Powell, Siochain, Slingshot#7821306/13/02; 19:40:19

Rich, I think 480 is safe. On breakouts, a retreat back to the breakout point is usually very bullish (as long as it holds, as you know). Thank you for your reminder on buystops. I think your right on with a whole bunch of them just sitting above 330 on gold. It's a very common tactic, and it sure helps explain the action. My gut tells me they may get run within the next few days. Not advice, just a feeling.

I'm still waiting for a few downside gaps to fill on a few PM stocks, tomorrow and monday should tell.

Siochain: I saw the same action today, and love your comment on the aftermarket -Twilight Zone - apply put.

Slingshot: Right on brother!!!!


Black BladeThe Emperor of Greed#7821406/13/02; 19:41:10


With the help of his bankers, Gary Winnick treated Global Crossing as his personal cash cow--until the company went bankrupt.

Black Blade: What's wrong with corporate America? This article is quite good. Charlatans like Gary Winnick weren't the only ones to profit during Global Crossing's run. Board members and backers cashed in too. Meanwhile shareholders and employees got shafted. This has been and will be repeated many times over. After over 4% trillion vaporized – "gone to money heaven" – it's no wonder then that the stock markets are falling, the US dollar is falling, and investors seek out safe havens.

WaveriderGold Lease Rates#7821506/13/02; 19:51:22

When I checked the PM lease rates early this morning at Kitco, they were updated for June 13th, and the Gold rates were up 1.5% across the board from yesterday. About 10 minutes later when I checked again, the update had disappeared, and it still continues to read for June 12th. I also notice that The Bullion Desk hasn't updated PM lease rates for today either. Is there anywhere else to get this information?

Also, could anyone please explain to me the difference between the forward rate, and the lease rate? I see on Kitco (assuming it's accurate) that the Gold forward rate is up compared to the lease rate, and in backwardation (to 6 months), but I don't know the significance or difference between the two. Thanks in advance!

PizzYear of Extremes?#7821606/13/02; 20:26:11

Any one else out there getting the same subliminal feelings I'm starting to get?

Markets, economy, droughts, weather, fires, all seem to be running right on the edge of catastrophe.

YGM was up to his armpits in snow a few weeks back, Seattle had record cold wave in May with snow in the passes (lived here over 50 years and that was a first.) Today it's over 90 here and we only get 5 or six plus 90 degree days all year, and it's usually August or September.

Colorado drought moving to midwest?

Floods in Minnisota?

I'm about ready to add Mother Nature to my list of long term bullish reasons to own gold and silver.

Mothman appears to be stretching his wings a bit.


goldquestRef: Searching For An Honest CEO#7821706/13/02; 21:45:32

A few years back, a plant burned to the ground. The owner, (CEO?) used his own money to keep his employees going. The plant was rebuilt. He could have retired and not went through the hassle to rebuild, but his concern was for the people and their welfare. This man is a rarity in this day and age. The Enrons, Imclones, Tycos, etc., should be so lucky as to have management of this caliber. Off topic, I know, but all is not lost for corporate America with folks like this!
Speedypizz#7821806/13/02; 22:03:42

pizz, read the book of Revelations!
YGMPizz...#7821906/13/02; 22:17:50

And then...

Two weeks after the 4 ft snow it was 70 and put in 1/2 acre garden, then 2 days of snow and 3 of rains, power lines down for 20 hrs over SW corner of Alberta, then flooding and now summer heat wave...Go figure...Good thing we got stable techtonic plate, no quakes here or twisters :>}
It's them damn guys experimenting w/ HAARP??? I know of a couple old livable mine adits at 8,000 ft level in Rockies.
I'm grining now but sometimes I wonder! Keep the gas stash full and the old Bronco in good repair :>} Hop skip & jump away.......YGM

steadyfood for thought#7822006/13/02; 22:29:52

Copied from another board . .


Issue 149 June 14, 2002


Charles Dickens created a character for DAVID
COPPERFIELD, Mr. Micawber. And macabre he was! He was a
promoter, a blower of bubbles, a schemer, a spinner of
dreams. Nothing ever quite worked for him as planned, but
he was always hopeful. His philosophy of life has come
down to us in his famous phrase, "Something will turn up."

In the 1935 movie, W. C. Fields played Micawber. This
was an example of flawless casting.

Dickens identified the mind-set of the huckster, the
man who substitutes schemes on paper for productivity.
Dickens was convinced that capitalism is basically little
more than a gigantic system of schemes. He saw the system
as a bubble. He was wrong about capitalism, but he was
correct about the central institution of capitalism,
fractional reserve banking. This institution, from the
creation of the Bank of England in 1694 until the present,
has been the creation of government. It could not exist
without The Agreement: "You license our monopoly over
money, and we'll guarantee a market for government debt."
I call it Micawber's Agreement.

The Agreement is at the heart of the modern world's
economy. Only one thing has ever proven successful in
exposing this agreement as a Micawberesque scheme: a rising
price of gold. This is why, above all else, central
bankers strive to keep down the price of gold.

The price of no other commodity attracts as much
attention. The price of no other commodity is the subject
of extended editorials in financial publications. Gold is
not just another commodity, despite what the gold-haters in
the media assure us. If it were, then they would not have
to keep writing their articles that assure us that it is.

I realize that expert opinion can be awe-inspiring. I
fully understand that when Alan Greenspan appears on
Capitol Hill, Congressmen, Senators, and WALL STREET
JOURNAL columnists are impressed by rhetoric that is
matched only by Dwight Eisenhower's and Professor Irwin
Corey's. ( But, as I
listen to his presentations and read them on-line, I keep
in mind an image of W. C. Fields. This helps me to put
things in their proper perspective.


Prior to the outbreak of World War I in 1914, gold
coins served as money for the masses of the West. Gold
bullion is still money within the closed fraternity known
as central banking. It is money for central bankers
because they do not trust each other. They expect each
other to cheat, to debase their currencies, to defer
payment, to lie without embarrassment, and to stiff their
brethren if they think they can get away with it on the
cheap. They know from experience over centuries that
debtors cheat creditors. The modern economy is based on
massive debt, and every debt is denominated in a means of
payment: a currency.

Central bankers want to be able to cheat the public.
Cheating the public is the number-one goal of all central
banking. The system has always rested on monopoly and
deception. At the same time, the number-two goal of
central bankers is to avoid being cheated by each other.
These goals are always in conflict. That which best
protects the central bankers from each other -- a gold coin
standard -- also protects the public from central bankers.

In 1914, all central banks except the Federal Reserve
System stole the gold that three generations of citizens
who had dutifully and foolishly handed over to commercial
bankers. The only people who were not big losers were
those who had not been rich enough to open a bank account.
The "best and the brightest" were the biggest losers.
After 1914, shell-shocked European depositors trusted the
words -- no longer redeemable in gold -- of the commercial
bankers' official representatives, central bankers.

In 1933, Franklin Roosevelt acted as the agent of the
Federal Reserve, and confiscated Americans' gold, hiking
its price in 1934 by 75%, after the government was in
possession of the stolen goods. The government turns over
the stolen gold to the central bank. This is how the
system has always worked. This is The Agreement.

Central bankers are like most other debtors: they want
to be able to escape their creditors if bad times arrive.
They want to be able to get out of their obligations. They
did this in 1914. The FED did it in 1933. Central bankers
cheated millions of depositors, who had naively believed
the commercial bankers' original promise: "Invest your gold
with us, and we'll pay interest to you. You can get your
gold back on demand at any time (you dumb clucks)."

Central bankers are also like creditors: they don't
want to be cheated by their debtors. They wanted
protection. They trusted gold. So, having stolen the
public's gold with the politicians' blessing, they created
an inter-bank gold standard for themselves: the gold-
exchange standard. It began in 1922 (the Genoa agreement).
They extended it in 1944 (the Bretton Woods agreement). By
these agreements, the Bank of England and the FED promised
to pay other central banks -- but not the general public --
gold on demand. By 1944, the Federal Reserve System had
most of the world's gold. The FED then persuaded the
United States government to extend a promise to other
central bankers on its behalf: "Invest your gold with us,
the United States government, and we'll pay interest to
you. You can get your gold back on demand at any time (you
dumb clucks)." It worked like a charm. It always does.
The market for U.S. government debt became the largest debt
market on earth.

On August 15, 1971, President Nixon did to the world's
central bankers what all of the central banks and their
governments had done in 1914 to their equally naive
citizens. Without warning on a Sunday afternoon, he
revoked the promise and closed the gold window. "Suckers!"

From that time on, the price of gold in relation to
any national currency was set by the law of supply and
demand. But, then again, it had always been set by supply
and demand. The question of the gold value of any currency
is always settled by supply and demand. How much currency
is coming out of some central bank? How much gold is being
made available by suppliers? Will existing monetary
policies be continued?


The larger the debt, the more tempting the lie.
"You're check is in the mail." This is because the present
threat of the future costs of defaulting on a loan pale in
comparison to the present cost of repaying. Bankruptcy
looms. Deferral now looks like a reasonable policy. If
the debtor can defer the day of reckoning, he will be
sorely tempted to do this. Bankruptcy tomorrow is a
greater threat than losing access to the credit markets in
a year. Maybe the lie will work. "Something may turn up."

If the creditors keep pushing for payment, the
debtor's lie become obvious. At that point, the debtor
admits the truth: "I can't repay." When the debtor is a
sovereign government, nobody can do much about it. What's
gone is gone. It was nice while it lasted.

Creditors may threaten to cut off future loans, but
everyone knows that's also a lie. Latin American
governments have been playing the default game with gringo
bankers ever since the 1830's. Argentina is only the
latest example. Brazil will probably follow.

Do foreigners still loan money to the United States
government? Of course. Did our government stiff them in
1971? It stiffed their central bankers, but politically
speaking, central banking is not a big issue. The public
doesn't understand international economics and currency
markets, so voters don't toss out governments because their
governments have stiffed foreign creditors, including
foreign central bankers. If anything, the Senior Liar of
the existing government is likely to be re-elected. Nixon
was overwhelmingly re-elected in 1972.

The public ought to care. It pays for losses
sustained by the nation's bankers. Taxes bail out recently
stiffed bankers. The central bank says, "If we win, you
get to keep more of your money. So do we. If we lose, you
will pay for our losses." Nice work if you can get it.

The way the public pays is through higher taxes,
especially the inflation tax. Consider the year of the
great confiscation in the United States: 1933. To match
the purchasing power of the dollar of 1933, a person needed
over $3 in 1971. That is, the purchasing power of the
dollar fell by two-thirds. That's what President
Roosevelt's unilateral abolition of the gold standard did
to trusting Americans who had naively believed the
government's promise to redeem the public's gold at
$20.67/oz. This depreciation took 38 years. Suckers!

Ever since Nixon's unilateral abolition of the gold-
exchange standard in 1971 -- refusing to sell gold at
$35/oz to central bankers -- the dollar has fallen in value
by almost 80%. It takes $4.44 to buy today what it took $1
to buy in 1971. This depreciation took 31 years. Suckers!
See the inflation calculator:

The falling value of the dollar is the irrefutable
evidence of the effects of government lies. But hardly
anyone cares. Everyone thinks he is getting richer.
Through politics, the over-65 crowd has gotten a cost-of-
living escalator written into the Social Security law.
This is why the government uses the standard Consumer Price
Index to calculate inflation rather than the more accurate
Median CPI, which today indicates that price inflation is
three times higher than the CPI says.

Sometime in 1980, Dan Ackroyd did a skit on "Saturday
Night Live" called "Inflation is our friend." He came on-
screen with a Jimmy Carter-like accent, which was pretty
good for a Canadian. "Didn't you always want to wear $400
suits and live in a $200,000 home. I know I did. Well,
now we can. All it takes is a little ink and some paper."
Too bad it's true.

jinx44Slingshot--your 78209#7822106/13/02; 22:30:00

I count myself amoung the millions of former military, God fearing, honest gun owners. That being said, if the USG really wants to do us in, they will use their unlimited (our money) funds to make criminals of us all. It will be slow and obtuse, as it has been in the past. They will create a perception that we are anathema and traitors. There is no peaceful co-existance with NWO communist scum like our elected officials and their handlers. It won't be nice and clear. They will use our 'democratic society' to hang us. My kin came here in the early 1600's because their homeland was subverted. 360 years later, I am faced with the same choice--maybe. Make your plans now.
DOWNUNDERMARKET HEADING FOR A FALL - - - - IT'S OFFICIAL !#7822206/13/02; 22:33:53

Just happened to turn the radio on here in Australia a few minutes ago and for the first time in recent memory --the talking heads 0n ABC were saying that there was now not much doubt that the Share Markets were due for a fall!

They said that it was clear from the falls on Wall St last night that the US markets had a lot further to go down!This is amazing. These so called commentators have been very happy in the past to just parrot what the US talking heads were saying whether up or down. Also discussed was the probability (certainty)that the OZ markets would follow suite.

Well its taken a long time to hear this on radio --we must be getting close to the beginning of some serious action!
Its a shame that most punters will be like deer caught in the headlights.

NomadA little market humor ... :)#7822306/13/02; 23:13:22

Snippit :

Band of Roving Chief Executives Spotted Miles from Mexican Border

San Antonio, Texas ( — Unwilling to wait for their eventual indictments, the 10,000 remaining CEOs of public U.S. companies made a break for it yesterday, heading for the Mexican border, plundering towns and villages along the way, and writing the entire rampage off as a marketing expense.

So far, about 50 chief executives have been captured, including Martha Stewart, who was detained south of El Paso where she had cut through a barbed-wire fence at the Zaragosa border crossing off Highway 375.

"She would have gotten away, but she was stopping motorists to ask for marzipan and food coloring so she could make edible snowman place settings, using the cut pieces of wire for the arms," said Border Patrol officer Jennette Cushing. "We put her in cell No. 7, because the morning sun really adds texture to the stucco walls."

WaveriderJapan bankruptcies rise 3.4 pct mth/mth in May #782246/14/02; 00:17:20§ion=news&news_id=reu-tav025843&date=20020614&alias=/alias/money/cm/nw

"Japanese bankruptcies rose 3.4 percent month-on-month in May and look set to go higher despite signs Japan's economy is emerging from its worst post-war recession, a private research firm said on Friday.

Teikoku Databank said the number of corporate bankruptcies in May came to 1,696, marking the fifth straight month failures totaled over 1,600 and putting 2002 on track for the second-largest number of corporate failures in the postwar era.

Teikoku said that even though the Japanese government had declared the economy past its worst and Japan posted its best economic growth in two years in the first quarter of 2002, bankruptcies would continue to soar through the rest of the year. "We are nowhere near the point at which we can really say that the economy has bottomed out," the research firm said."

Black BladeAsia Awash in Red#782256/14/02; 00:19:30

Asian markets are getting slaughtered. Gold is up slightly, petroleum is up slightly, and the USD is sinking as Japanese give up support of the US dollar for the day.

- Black Blade

Black BladeSoccer keeps gold from scoring#782266/14/02; 01:11:00,4186,2-8-21_1199289,00.html


London - Gold rose from the day's lows in Europe on Thursday afternoon as the dollar dropped against the euro but prices fell short of US$320 seen in New York, as European traders again eyed World Cup football. "The external forces governing the gold market continue to be, primarily, the equity and currency markets. Political tension, and it has to be said, football, are also contributing to market activity (or lack thereof)," Rhona O'Connell, market analysis manager at the World Gold Council, said.

Black Blade: We all have our priorities.

SpartacusJapan's Debt a Political Problem, Moody's Byrne Says #782276/14/02; 01:52:22

Byrne, who was questioned by Japanese legislators this week on why the world's second-biggest economy now has a lower credit rating than Botswana, said Japan is ``still getting used to the notion that a country that has certain strengths can be rated at the level it's rated.''

Byrne rebutted Goldman Sachs (Japan) Ltd.'s argument that Japan should have a top-notch ``Aaa'' rating because there's barely any risk the government will default on its yen-denominated bonds.

Japan's large current account surplus, foreign exchange reserves and domestic savings mean the country can continue to finance budget deficits, Goldman said in a report issued Monday.

`Debt Matters'

``We don't accept the premise that all government bonds should be rated triple-A,'' Byrne said. ``Debt does matter. When it accumulates, when there is no end in sight to a build-up in debt, then creditworthiness is impaired.''

He said Japan's current-account surplus is only 2 percent to 3 percent of GDP, and foreign-exchange reserves aren't meant to support government finances.

``Liabilities of the government dwarf the size of its assets.''

Further, the government doesn't have access to Japan's net foreign assets. ``Most of these are held by the private sector,'' Byrne said. ``That begs the issue: Whose resources are these and how will the government get hold of these to service its obligations?''

Japan's 1,400 trillion yen ($11.2 trillion) of household savings will probably shrink as the population ages. ``I don't think a saving surplus used to finance government spending is a good use'' of resources, Byrne said

steadyfood for thought#782286/14/02; 02:39:47

Copied from another board . .


Issue 149 June 14, 2002


Charles Dickens created a character for DAVID
COPPERFIELD, Mr. Micawber. And macabre he was! He was a
promoter, a blower of bubbles, a schemer, a spinner of
dreams. Nothing ever quite worked for him as planned, but
he was always hopeful. His philosophy of life has come
down to us in his famous phrase, "Something will turn up."

In the 1935 movie, W. C. Fields played Micawber. This
was an example of flawless casting.

Dickens identified the mind-set of the huckster, the
man who substitutes schemes on paper for productivity.
Dickens was convinced that capitalism is basically little
more than a gigantic system of schemes. He saw the system
as a bubble. He was wrong about capitalism, but he was
correct about the central institution of capitalism,
fractional reserve banking. This institution, from the
creation of the Bank of England in 1694 until the present,
has been the creation of government. It could not exist
without The Agreement: "You license our monopoly over
money, and we'll guarantee a market for government debt."
I call it Micawber's Agreement.

The Agreement is at the heart of the modern world's
economy. Only one thing has ever proven successful in
exposing this agreement as a Micawberesque scheme: a rising
price of gold. This is why, above all else, central
bankers strive to keep down the price of gold.

The price of no other commodity attracts as much
attention. The price of no other commodity is the subject
of extended editorials in financial publications. Gold is
not just another commodity, despite what the gold-haters in
the media assure us. If it were, then they would not have
to keep writing their articles that assure us that it is.

I realize that expert opinion can be awe-inspiring. I
fully understand that when Alan Greenspan appears on
Capitol Hill, Congressmen, Senators, and WALL STREET
JOURNAL columnists are impressed by rhetoric that is
matched only by Dwight Eisenhower's and Professor Irwin
Corey's. ( But, as I
listen to his presentations and read them on-line, I keep
in mind an image of W. C. Fields. This helps me to put
things in their proper perspective.


Prior to the outbreak of World War I in 1914, gold
coins served as money for the masses of the West. Gold
bullion is still money within the closed fraternity known
as central banking. It is money for central bankers
because they do not trust each other. They expect each
other to cheat, to debase their currencies, to defer
payment, to lie without embarrassment, and to stiff their
brethren if they think they can get away with it on the
cheap. They know from experience over centuries that
debtors cheat creditors. The modern economy is based on
massive debt, and every debt is denominated in a means of
payment: a currency.

Central bankers want to be able to cheat the public.
Cheating the public is the number-one goal of all central
banking. The system has always rested on monopoly and
deception. At the same time, the number-two goal of
central bankers is to avoid being cheated by each other.
These goals are always in conflict. That which best
protects the central bankers from each other -- a gold coin
standard -- also protects the public from central bankers.

In 1914, all central banks except the Federal Reserve
System stole the gold that three generations of citizens
who had dutifully and foolishly handed over to commercial
bankers. The only people who were not big losers were
those who had not been rich enough to open a bank account.
The "best and the brightest" were the biggest losers.
After 1914, shell-shocked European depositors trusted the
words -- no longer redeemable in gold -- of the commercial
bankers' official representatives, central bankers.

In 1933, Franklin Roosevelt acted as the agent of the
Federal Reserve, and confiscated Americans' gold, hiking
its price in 1934 by 75%, after the government was in
possession of the stolen goods. The government turns over
the stolen gold to the central bank. This is how the
system has always worked. This is The Agreement.

Central bankers are like most other debtors: they want
to be able to escape their creditors if bad times arrive.
They want to be able to get out of their obligations. They
did this in 1914. The FED did it in 1933. Central bankers
cheated millions of depositors, who had naively believed
the commercial bankers' original promise: "Invest your gold
with us, and we'll pay interest to you. You can get your
gold back on demand at any time (you dumb clucks)."

Central bankers are also like creditors: they don't
want to be cheated by their debtors. They wanted
protection. They trusted gold. So, having stolen the
public's gold with the politicians' blessing, they created
an inter-bank gold standard for themselves: the gold-
exchange standard. It began in 1922 (the Genoa agreement).
They extended it in 1944 (the Bretton Woods agreement). By
these agreements, the Bank of England and the FED promised
to pay other central banks -- but not the general public --
gold on demand. By 1944, the Federal Reserve System had
most of the world's gold. The FED then persuaded the
United States government to extend a promise to other
central bankers on its behalf: "Invest your gold with us,
the United States government, and we'll pay interest to
you. You can get your gold back on demand at any time (you
dumb clucks)." It worked like a charm. It always does.
The market for U.S. government debt became the largest debt
market on earth.

On August 15, 1971, President Nixon did to the world's
central bankers what all of the central banks and their
governments had done in 1914 to their equally naive
citizens. Without warning on a Sunday afternoon, he
revoked the promise and closed the gold window. "Suckers!"

From that time on, the price of gold in relation to
any national currency was set by the law of supply and
demand. But, then again, it had always been set by supply
and demand. The question of the gold value of any currency
is always settled by supply and demand. How much currency
is coming out of some central bank? How much gold is being
made available by suppliers? Will existing monetary
policies be continued?


The larger the debt, the more tempting the lie.
"You're check is in the mail." This is because the present
threat of the future costs of defaulting on a loan pale in
comparison to the present cost of repaying. Bankruptcy
looms. Deferral now looks like a reasonable policy. If
the debtor can defer the day of reckoning, he will be
sorely tempted to do this. Bankruptcy tomorrow is a
greater threat than losing access to the credit markets in
a year. Maybe the lie will work. "Something may turn up."

If the creditors keep pushing for payment, the
debtor's lie become obvious. At that point, the debtor
admits the truth: "I can't repay." When the debtor is a
sovereign government, nobody can do much about it. What's
gone is gone. It was nice while it lasted.

Creditors may threaten to cut off future loans, but
everyone knows that's also a lie. Latin American
governments have been playing the default game with gringo
bankers ever since the 1830's. Argentina is only the
latest example. Brazil will probably follow.

Do foreigners still loan money to the United States
government? Of course. Did our government stiff them in
1971? It stiffed their central bankers, but politically
speaking, central banking is not a big issue. The public
doesn't understand international economics and currency
markets, so voters don't toss out governments because their
governments have stiffed foreign creditors, including
foreign central bankers. If anything, the Senior Liar of
the existing government is likely to be re-elected. Nixon
was overwhelmingly re-elected in 1972.

The public ought to care. It pays for losses
sustained by the nation's bankers. Taxes bail out recently
stiffed bankers. The central bank says, "If we win, you
get to keep more of your money. So do we. If we lose, you
will pay for our losses." Nice work if you can get it.

The way the public pays is through higher taxes,
especially the inflation tax. Consider the year of the
great confiscation in the United States: 1933. To match
the purchasing power of the dollar of 1933, a person needed
over $3 in 1971. That is, the purchasing power of the
dollar fell by two-thirds. That's what President
Roosevelt's unilateral abolition of the gold standard did
to trusting Americans who had naively believed the
government's promise to redeem the public's gold at
$20.67/oz. This depreciation took 38 years. Suckers!

Ever since Nixon's unilateral abolition of the gold-
exchange standard in 1971 -- refusing to sell gold at
$35/oz to central bankers -- the dollar has fallen in value
by almost 80%. It takes $4.44 to buy today what it took $1
to buy in 1971. This depreciation took 31 years. Suckers!
See the inflation calculator:

The falling value of the dollar is the irrefutable
evidence of the effects of government lies. But hardly
anyone cares. Everyone thinks he is getting richer.
Through politics, the over-65 crowd has gotten a cost-of-
living escalator written into the Social Security law.
This is why the government uses the standard Consumer Price
Index to calculate inflation rather than the more accurate
Median CPI, which today indicates that price inflation is
three times higher than the CPI says.

Sometime in 1980, Dan Ackroyd did a skit on "Saturday
Night Live" called "Inflation is our friend." He came on-
screen with a Jimmy Carter-like accent, which was pretty
good for a Canadian. "Didn't you always want to wear $400
suits and live in a $200,000 home. I know I did. Well,
now we can. All it takes is a little ink and some paper."
Too bad it's true.

Black BladeEurope Awash In Red#782296/14/02; 03:11:48

Just like Asia (actually worse), Euro markets are getting trashed this morning. US market indices are down sharply. If this keeps up till the NY open we could see some real fireworks and a possible stampede to the Gold pits. However, I almost expect some intervention from institutional houses and possibly elsewhere to minimize the damage. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

Black BladeGold Market Not Mature Enough to Open to Individual Players#782306/14/02; 03:28:20


BEIJING, Jun 14, 2002 (Xinhua via COMTEX) -- The gold market is not mature enough to open to individual speculation, according to banking officials. It has long been in the works to open the gold market to individuals. But Chinese banks have shown little confidence in this unfamiliar market and many banks even do not know how to handle gold business.

The gold market is designed to open in three steps: The first step, which will take two years, is the preparation period; the second step is to stop bank purchasing of gold and totally liberalize gold trading and open the market to individuals as a tool for savings and investment while exploring for the possibility of futures business; and the third step is to bring the gold market into line with that of the world when RMB is freely convertible.

Black Blade: It appears that the Chinese will have to "educate" the bankers. Maybe in one of those "re-education camps" we hear about. There is a lot of demand likely to break loose. Recently Hong Kong reported that most gold buyers were from the mainland. When the Gold market is liberalized we could see a rush on Gold.

Black BladeEight die in blast near US consulate in Karachi #782316/14/02; 03:46:15


KARACHI: A car bomb exploded Friday outside the US consulate in Karachi, killing eight people and damaging the consulate building, the police said. The blast occurred around 11:15 a.m. (0515 GMT). Police said the bomb was concealed in a white car. The blast caused substantial damage to the consulate, destroying the guard post, and the nearby Marriott Hotel. Windows were shattered in both buildings, and a number of cars were damaged.

Violence against foreigners by Islamic militants has increased since Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf threw his support behind the US-led war on terrorism. Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl was abducted and murdered in Karachi in January, while working on a story about Islamic militants. Suicide bombings — once unheard of here — have occurred twice. Both attacks were believed carried out by al-Qaeda. On March 17, a grenade attack at a church in Islamabad's diplomatic enclave killed five people, including two Americans. Last month, 11 French engineers and three others were killed in a suicide attack in front of a Karachi hotel.

Black Blade: It appears that the war is still on. This was apparently a suicide bomber that killed only Pakistanis. The bomb was apparently meant to attack the U.S.

TopazWaverider#782326/14/02; 04:26:16

The link from the LBMA (atop this forum page) indicates the Lease rate is a derivative of GOFO (Gold offered forward) and LIBOR (London interbank "o/nite??" rate) - can't help much more other than in a fast running PoG market the L/Rate reacts strongly and in the past has been indicative of a shortness of supply. This "appears" not to be the case currently......maybe Ari can add his expertise..
Black BladeSlaughter In Europe#782336/14/02; 04:29:49

Markets are getting absolutely crushed in Europe this morning, The talking heads are talking capitulation. Looks like CNBC will have to bring out the big guns today. Maybe trot out Abby Jo to predict S&P 500 at 1300 by year end (that's a whopping 30% climb from yesterdays close). I can just see them bringing out James Cramer to rant and rave about "stupid investors" not propping up the markets. Who knows, I expect another bogus rumor to pop up - like the Microsoft rumor a couple of days ago that saved the day in the last hour. It appears that it could be an "interesting" day.


DOW -89
NASDAQ -25.50
S&P 500 -13.70


CAC -107 -2.68%
DAX -117.40 -2.63%
FTSE -121 -2.53%

Gold +$2.20

- Black Blade

Black BladeMerrill Lynch Issues Rash of "Sell" Recommendations#782346/14/02; 04:40:39

CNBC reports Merrill Lynch just issued a rash of "sell" recommendations on telecom. I wouldn't bring this up, but when was the last time a brokerage ever issued a "sell" recommendation? Shaping up to be an "interesting" start in New York.

- Black Blade

BTW, European markets are sinking further, now are off over -3% and sinking.

Black BladeGold Picking Up Steam#782356/14/02; 05:17:36

Gold has been steadily rising all morning on glum economic data, bombing in Karachi targeting Americans, and indications that foriegn investors are ready to flee US markets. The USD is tumbling and Gold is currently up +$3.30 an ounce $321.80 an ounce. Waiting for the interventionists to step in.

- Black Blade

HOOSIER GOLDBUGDEBT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!#782366/14/02; 05:49:07

After three years of extensive work (REAL PROPERTY APPRAISER FOR MORTGAGE COMPANIES) in the refinancing the ever increasing consumer debt, I have noticed a considerable downturn in my business with JOE SIXPACK and SALLY HOMEMAKER leveraged to the MAXIMUM and interest rates hovering in narrow channels. Yesterday I did an assessment of the future prospects for my line of work and for a short period of time came to the probability/realization that real estate appraisers may become an extinct specie. Then an appraisal request came in by a large financial services conglomerate for a loan on a distinctive (upper-end) property. The terms of the loan are: 10-year adjustable, adjustable on a monthly basis, indexed on the LIBOR RATE, 4.25% or 3.75% + 1 point, INTEREST ONLY for the ten year period. LOOKS LIKE MY BUSINESS WILL BE IN PLACE, UNTIL EVERYONE HAS ONE OF THESE TYPES OF LOANS. What will they think up next?????????????????????????????????????
The VictorianHoosier Goldbug#782376/14/02; 06:51:44

I'm an appraiser, too. Don't worry, you'll have a lot of foreclosure work in the next year or two. Get to be an expert in that area now.
UsulU.K. Stocks Tumble#782386/14/02; 06:53:16

U.K. Stocks Tumble

''It's better to stay out of this market,'' said Stefano Fossati, who helps manage 2 billion euros ($1.9 billion) at Banca Profilo SpA in Milan. ''Companies can't see or tell us where profits will come from. There is nowhere safe to put your money.''

What about gold? These people have no idea, or perhaps they are keeping it to themselves while they get in early?

PizzPPT#7823906/14/02; 07:29:01

Big money dumped into the S & P futures fivc minutes before the open. Premium went from a negative 12 to a positive 2.

Let's see if they can hold it. My guess is no.

HipplebeckHoosier#7824006/14/02; 07:30:20

"The terms of the loan are: 10-year adjustable, adjustable on a monthly basis,
indexed on the LIBOR RATE, 4.25% or 3.75% + 1 point, INTEREST ONLY for the ten year period. LOOKS LIKE MY
up next????????????????????????????????????? "

That is complicated way of saying "renting a house"

WaveriderTopaz#7824106/14/02; 08:05:58

Thank you for the information and link. I was able to find definitions in the LBMA and I think this just about clarifies it. Thanks again.

"GOLD FORWARD RATE AGREEMENT An off balance sheet instrument that enables parties either to hedge or to speculate against future gold lease rate movements. It is an agreement to settle the difference between the interest payable on a future notional gold loan with reference to a fixed rate of interest agreed at inception of the agreement, and a floating rate for the period which pertains in the market when the notional loan period commences. The floating rate is generally determined against the benchmark of US dollar LIBOR minus GOFO mean, and the difference is generally settled in US dollars."

RockC.I.A. and F.B.I. Agree to Truce in War of Leaks vs. Counterleaks#7824206/14/02; 08:07:36

Hi all my good friends, I hate to say I told you so. I just had a gut feeling about that latest terrorist discovery about a dirty bomb and the CIA and FBI broke the case together so how sweet it is after all these years they are getting along now. I said it was just your basic damage control since their 911 screwup.

Looks like the Dow is down triple digets within only 5 minutes after opening bell, whats up with that goldbugs?
Gold is probably the best investment you can have especially in times like these because finanical security is piece of mind. I can't believe more people arn't getting on board because their IRA's and 401's are getting plummeted.

I think it was here at the castle I read that after a 20 year bull market it isn't going to get off the hook with just a one or two year recession, that's been the trolls wishful thinking all along and it hasn't done anything but gotten worst.

Get gold, the day of reckoning is already in progress.
Thanks for listening,


RobotGuyLoonie flying with lead weights again!#7824306/14/02; 08:29:37

I guess we shouldn't have sold all our gold for U.S. treasury bonds. Perhaps our government will keep some of the gold we have left in our soil before it's all gone. It just seems so obvious to me that this is the best thing we could do for our country right now, I guess I'll never be a Paul Martin.

Cheers goldbugs! May King Midas grace your world!

RobotGuyPardon me,... Paul Martin = = John Manley#7824406/14/02; 08:40:27

RobotGuy is a little behind the times.
YGMI Wonder?#7824506/14/02; 08:59:30

PPT & ESF.......

How many of the Rapid Roy broker boys are making cash trading the fix? Buy low, sell to the close....Who'll own the Dow & Duck when the music stops?? S&P below 1K...bout time!......Let'er all go, reality time!.....YGM
YGMRobot Guy#7824606/14/02; 09:06:11

Not too Distant Future....

When Financial Chaos rules, Canadians will vote for drastic change as history shows us and the Alliance is looking pretty dignified and competent finally in the house....


YGMUh Oh..#7824706/14/02; 09:16:38

Revealed - SHRAPNEL Was Found
In 89 TWA 800 Victims
Official TWA 800 Findings Challenged
The Suffolk County coroner, Dr. Wetli, found shrapnel in 89
of the bodies he examined.

WTC.."the 'Next' Revelation for the people"

RobotGuyOooh everythings so bouncy today!#7824806/14/02; 09:30:27

Tremors before the quake perhaps?
kramrichThe Victorian / Hoosier Goldbug#7824906/14/02; 09:31:48

I've been a Real Estate Broker for 12 years and agree that there will be lots of foreclosures in 2-3 years.
Carl HArticle: G7 ministers gather in Halifax as dollar, stocks sag#7825006/14/02; 09:43:36


"Certainly we wouldn't want to encourage volatility in exchange rates. I think that we would want to encourage sound economic policies and let markets determine rates," he said.

Japan's central bank has been intervening in the foreign exchange markets in recent weeks to rein in the yen's rise against the dollar. But U.S. Treasury Under Secretary John Taylor said on Thursday that the intervention, which aims to knock the yen lower to prevent Japanese exports from being too expensive, did not produce sustained economic growth.

"The tone of the foreign exchange markets has been weak equities, weak dollar. And equities have been getting slammed," said Neil Parker, market strategist at RBS Financial Markets

CarlH: Hmmm...I wonder how prominently a certain "barberous relic" will feature in these discussions...

The Traveler@ Steady RE: #78228#7825106/14/02; 09:47:16

The article you posted is "red meat" for us at this Forum. But if calmly considered, it is a splash of cold water.

In essence the article says, "Look at the destruction in the purchasing power of our fiat currency. It takes $13.83 dollars today to buy what $1 did in 1933." May God save us!

This depreciation in value translates into an AVERAGE COMPOUNDED decline of 3.8% per year over 69 years. Is that so bad? Add two percent or so for a real return of value and long-term interest rates should have averaged about 6%. They did.

Furthermore, as gold is the premier store of value, the POG should be about $286 per ounce today if its price simply matched the real decline in the US$'s purchasing power.

Accordingly, why shouldn't a central bank but a treasury bill earning 5% when US inflation is 3%. To buy bullion denies them the ability to earn a 2% real increase in purchasing power. Furthermore, until the last few years, gold would seem to be overvalued in US$ terms.

If in 1933 one had invested their dollars in hard assets or paper assets, one would have received a generous real return in excess of the rate of value depreciation. The DOW and S&P 500 for example returned nearly 10% annually. Residential dwellings, urban and suburban land and timberland did quite well too. Only if one buried his money (like the foolish servant in the New Testament parable) did a true loss in purchasing power occur.

Understand the above and one will begin to see why gold ownership collapsed in the early 1980's following the passage of banking reforms like the Garn – St.Germain bill: The Monetary Decontrol Act. Among other sweeping changes it allowed for interest to be paid on consumer checking accounts (WOW!) and for the removal of interest rate limits on consumer savings accounts and CDs.

For those here without gray hair, prior to the bill's passage FED regulations said for example that you could only get 6% for a CD with maturity over seven years. Any wonder why small savers ran to gold as the inflation of the 70's hit 14%?

In summary, gold's bright future is not built on this line of argument.

Best regards,

The Traveler

Carl H10AM DJIA Rally#7825206/14/02; 09:57:53

Anyone else notice the reverse in the DJIA at 10AM? Looks like the PPT putting your tax dollars to work.

As a friend of mine used to say: "The game's not over till the tax payer screams."

Cavan ManMr. Traveler#7825306/14/02; 09:58:15

In your opinion sir, what line(s) of argument is gold's bright future built upon? TIA and enjoy your contributions here! Best...CM
TruthcasterThe fed's at their best!#7825406/14/02; 10:09:28

Well I see this friday is just like last friday
as we see the markets tank at open with gold up
nicely. And then the fed's open their pocket books
and the markets start heading north. It really makes
me mad to watch them try to paint the tape before
the weekend. Because God knows we can't have the s&p
below 1,000 and sit there all weeken long how would that
look for a monday open. Well thanks for letting me
vent... Truthcaster... I guess will wait and see.

RockBoy of 17 Hacks into Missle Secrets#7825506/14/02; 10:53:12

Interesting and Scarey Times

Boy of 17 hacks into missile secrets

by Standard Foreign News Desk
The Pentagon has had its second major intelligence embarrassment in a week after a teenager in Austria hacked into secret plans, including the location of US nuclear missiles.

Today's Top News

'Severed head' suspect charged

Police hunt hospital rapist

One giant leap for Japan's fans

New Milly suspect released

Lee and Jonny face Big Brother chop

The exploits of Markus Hirsch, 17, come only days after British surveillance enthusiast John Locker was able to hack into US spy satellite pictures.

Now an FBI team is on its way to Vienna to question Markus. Their big fear is that Osama bin Laden followers may have enjoyed similar access for months.

American protection of its secrets has never been higher since 11 September, with even the most conservative estimates saying at least £7billion has gone into bolstering security.

But from the computer in his bedroom, Markus was able to get into the most classified Pentagon sites, including the one which details the silos where missiles with multi-megaton warheads are kept.

"Cracking into the Pentagon was child's play," said the teenager. "I know my way round the internet."

Markus, who lived with his mother in Germany for a while when his parents split up, eventually moved into a small flat in Vienna where he now lives alone.

He added: "I don't know anyone here, apart from my granny, so I surf all night on the internet."

sectorUS closes embassy, consulates in Pakistan after bombing in Karachi#7825606/14/02; 10:58:39

Anybody surprised?

(Updated at 1830 PST)

WASHINGTON: The United States on Friday shuttered its diplomatic missions in Pakistan as well as the American Center in Islamabad after a deadly truck bomb attack outside its consulate in Karachi, the State Department said.

The embassy and American Centers were closed to the public immediately after the blast, as were the consulates in Lahore and Peshawar, Lynn Cassel, a department spokeswoman, told a news agency.

The bombing -- which damaged the Karachi consulate and killed eight people, none of them US government employees -- slightly wounded a US Marine guard and five local Pakistani employees at the mission, she said.
With 39,000 schools of hatred for the US and Israel in Pakistan, is anyone surprised at this development?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Don't be fooled by inflatable paper substitutes.#7825806/14/02; 12:05:30

gold sovereigns
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Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

In this global marketplace, a single event on the far side of the world can suddenly and adversely affect the performance-credibility value of the commercial positions within your investment portfolio.

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In the final analysis -- in times of stress -- paper is only paper.

How solid is your portfolio?

The HoopleIs this the unspoken COMEX clause?#7825906/14/02; 12:17:28

"If on any trading day gold breaks out of a $2 trading range it wil be beat into submission until a $2 range is observed. If this fails, a further thrashing will commence in the access trade in illiquid months. If this is still unsuccessful the Asian, European, and Australian markets will be dumped on until time permits another COMEX bashing. A master computer will simultaneously short gold and silver while buying US$ and index futures and options in a precise ratio. Any day that would generate favorable news for gold (mayhem, violence, nuclear rumblings, crashing currencies, etc.) will result in an automatic down day for gold and gold stocks. When gold remains low ridiculously low margin requirements will apply. If gold rises refer to the stratospheric margin list. Never mention the words "GATA" , "Murphy" or " lease gold" by name. Remember, like Augusta this is an exclusive cabal/club. It is in all of our best interests to keep the fiat dream alive.
TownCrierGold moves#7826006/14/02; 12:41:17,4186,2-8-21_1199779,00.html

14/06/2002 17:49-(SA) London - Gold prices briefly spiked above US$322 after US warplanes attacked a military air defence facility in a "no-fly" zone in Southern Iraq on Friday, rocking an already jittery market, traders said.

"The market heard a rumour that the US was bombing Iraq and the knee-jerk reaction saw the market jump $2 in a matter of seconds, " one trader said. "As soon as people realised it was a "no-fly" zone and there was nothing in it, the price came straight back off. But basically it brought the threat of Iraq back to the fore."

...Gold prices initially rose in the morning after a car bomb which killed at least eight people outside the US consulate in Karachi prompted buying in the safe-haven asset and a sell-off in the dollar.

--------(click URL for full text)---------

Gold can indeed move in a blink...

A favorite quote of mine: "For as long as cannons have thundered, they have echoed with the sound of men yearning for gold."

Are you prepared to weather yet another weekend without locking in your order and getting your own shipment of gold in the pipeline? Call Centennial for all the assistance you'll need to get the job done right at the right price.


YGMRumors Again...#7826106/14/02; 12:55:54

Oz Gold Reserves....

As per the awaited rumor from Oz concerning Gov. Gold reserves (nothing to do w/ Perth Mint fiasco) I just got off the phone w/ a long time broker friend stateside who follows Gold and has for years, is pretty well connected to info (not thru Forums etc or GATA), but has also heard there will be some shaking news coming out of Oz shortly...The news is "NO GOLD LEFT"...still it is just a "Rumor"...We shall soon see...........YGM.
YGM(No Subject)#7826206/14/02; 13:06:38


06/14 13:56
U.S. May Scrap `Sweetheart Deal' for Mining Companies (Update1)
By Julie Ziegler

Washington, June 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. lawmakers, the Bush administration and environmentalists are trying to overturn a 130- year-old law that saves hard-rock miners such as Newmont Mining Co. and Phelps Dodge Corp. more than $100 million a year.

The campaign is intended to make companies that mine gold, copper, clay and other minerals pay royalties to the government to operate on federal land and to contribute more to environmental cleanups. The companies have been exempt from royalty payments under the General Mining Law of 1872

**The bill would also end a measure that allowed the purchase of federal land for as little as $2.50 an acre and give the federal government the right to deny mining permits, said Alan Septoff of the Mineral Policy Center

**Interior Secretary Gale Norton, who asked Congress to deal with the issue this session, is in favor of charging the industry some royalties for use of federal land.

The mining industry is willing to negotiate, said Doug Hock, a spokesman for Denver-based Newmont, the world's largest gold producer. The industry is calling for a 5 percent net royalty after taking into account the cost of extracting minerals.

Cont'd @ link.....

TownCrierSeptember 1999 Central Bank Agreement on Gold#7826306/14/02; 13:37:06 Regarding item #4 of the so-called Washington Agreement: "The signatories to this agreement have agreed not to expand their gold leasings and their use of gold futures and options over this period."

It is good to see that the central bank of the Netherlands is publically signalling its withdrawal of some of its gold which is now out on deposit with commercial institutions -- thus effectively drawing down the size of the "Unallocated" accounts that may be tapped into to support the artificial expansion of the gold supply through commercial lending. This information came to us through an earlier report by Rhona O'Connell of the World Gold Council.

Regarding item #3 of the Agreement: "The gold sales already decided will be achieved through a concerted programme of sales over the next five years. Annual sales will not exceed approximately 400 tons and total sales over this period will not exceed 2,000 tons."

We have all known for many months the scope of the Swiss central bank's share in this reallocation. Therefore, the key point in this next passage I'm reposting from Rhona's report today is not the size of the sales thus far completed, but rather the use of the funds. Please note the insignificant participation by U.S. Government debt securities within this buying spree. Have we reached the point of oversaturation of our market of willing holders of our debt?

From today's report:
"Swiss National Bank Board member Niklaus Blattner said in a press conference this morning that the bank has sold
almost 520t of its 1,300t disposal programme, and has so far managed to achieve an average price $2 above the average
for the period. The funds so far have been invested as to 65% Swiss franc bonds, 25% euro bonds, 3% US bonds and
the balance in other currencies."

Has the dollar finally come up against the wall?

You can read more about the Central Bank Gold Agreement that I've been referencing at the URL given above.


VanRipS&P Global Indicies - Black Blade/All#7826406/14/02; 13:44:22

ALL twenty-five S&P Global Indicies are RED. S&P 500 and TSE 60 being goosed to close in the black. SIte updates automatically.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.At our online price of $5.95, you will learn more about gold investing than your own financial advisor will ever know#7826506/14/02; 13:44:32

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Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

Black BladeJapan could be 'bankrupt within 10 years' #7826606/14/02; 14:00:10


Japan could be "bankrupt in 10 years" unless it raises taxes, one of the top financial advisers to Junichiro Koizumi, prime minister, has warned. Hiromitsu Ishi, chairman of Japan's tax commission and the most senior adviser on tax issues to Mr Koizumi, on Thursday told the FT that tax cuts implemented between 1988 and 2000 were "excessive". Those cuts meant Japan now had the lowest tax burden of any G7 nation at a time when tax revenues were being undermined by the country's economic decline. Mr Ishi's tough and politically unpalatable message will sit unhappily with the upbeat news Masajuro Shiokawa will present at the G8 finance minister's meeting this weekend, where he will seek to allay international concerns over Japan's economic future.

While the government has financed the deficit with bond issues in the past, these now account for a third of all government spending. At the end of last month, to the fury of the Japanese government, Moody's Investors Service downgraded Japan's sovereign debt rating by two notches. Japan's commitment to cap bond issues at Y30,000bn this year and maintain fiscal prudence means "tax rises are inevitable," Mr Ishi said.

Black Blade: I got news – Japan is already bankrupt. There's a reason why Moody's Investors Service downgraded Japan's debt to junk. Japan's insolvent banks can't even guarantee depositors that their cash is safe and deposit insurance for all deposits end on April Fools Day 2003. Look for strong Gold buying in Japan early next year.

Black BladeBeware The Dropping Dollar#7826706/14/02; 14:51:57


Foreign investors pumped some $1.3 trillion into U.S. stocks and bonds between 1999 and the end of 2001, largely because they believed in the soundness of the dollar and the superiority of U.S. profit growth. Foreigners now own $8 trillion of U.S. financial assets, including 13% of all stocks, 24% of corporate bonds, and 40% of Treasury bonds, according to Bridgewater Associates.

Black Blade: When they run for the exits – look out. What happens if they transfer a small percent into US based gold accounts? Hmmm…

Black BladeU.S. May Scrap `Sweetheart Deal' for Mining Companies#7826806/14/02; 15:16:45


Washington, June 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. lawmakers, the Bush administration and environmentalists are trying to overturn a 130- year-old law that saves hard-rock miners such as Newmont Mining Co. and Phelps Dodge Corp. more than $100 million a year.

The campaign is intended to make companies that mine gold, copper, clay and other minerals pay royalties to the government to operate on federal land and to contribute more to environmental cleanups. The companies have been exempt from royalty payments under the General Mining Law of 1872. ``The 1872 law is a rip-off to taxpayers,'' said Representative Christopher Shays, a Connecticut Republican. The hard-rock mining industry releases almost half the toxics emitted by U.S. industry, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

Black Blade: Right, and what tremendous profits the mining companies have made too. Of course these people miss a "minor" point here. These added costs will simply be passed along to the consumer at some point. Business does not pay – the consumer pays. Aside from that, the pollutants in mining that the EPA refers to are based on the new rules identifying toxic release (Toxic Release Inventory). By the EPA's own admission, the Earth (rock and soil) is a pollutant. Once this earth is disturbed, then there is supposedly a "toxic release" of pollutants. So remember that every time you dig in the garden you are a polluter as far as the EPA is concerned. Yeah I know its nuts, but it was something that Clinton-Gore-Babbitt wanted passed. It was entirely a political decision not based on credible science.

slingshotJinx Msg#78221#7826906/14/02; 15:18:37

Message of Hope

It has been many years since I have opened up a history book. One book which for the life of me can not remember the title, but the subject matter was George Washington at Valley Forge and the hardships endured. At the time of reading a passage it had no significance for I was young. Being older it is reassuring.
George Washington was asking the Good Lord above for help.
To give him strenght to lead this Continental Army to victory. He was given a vision in three parts. The first part he was victorious and a new nation would be born. The second part was another terrible war which almost divides the nation but still remains intact. The third part he sees our country in a strife and on the verge of destruction.
The war as my interpetation rocked the foundation of our nation. In the very end he is shown that freedom prevails.

So we will be call traitors for owning Gold.
We will be called traitors for standing by the Constitution.
We we be called criminals for having guns.
George Washington was once called a traitor and I consider myself in Good Company.

Have a Great Weekend. Off to the woods.

JimboNewsletters down on gold#7827006/14/02; 15:58:13

Mark Hulbert wrote an interesting piece on CBSMarketWatch today that pointed out leading investment newsletters didn't include gold funds among their most popular fund recommendations. He surmised that "While from a contrarian point of view this bodes well for gold's future prospects, one consequence of that skepticism is that gold funds are less popular among newsletters than one otherwise might guess."

Ironically, another story on the same Web site noted that equity funds posted their fourth straight week of losses, tumbling 2.3 percent, and stock funds went down 7.8 percent during the past four weeks. Gold funds, the article said, remained the best performing category with a 53 percent ytd gain (although this week saw an average 10 percent drop in gold funds!).

Seems to me the gold companies, particularly the big ones, could do a lot better job of public relations. The newsletter editors' skepticism, I imagine, is based on their negative preconceptions garnered from 20 years of watching a very flat gold market (up until now, of course). They just need to be "educated." If they were, more investors would start dabbling in gold and the POG would go up. Right? Anyone agree, disagree?

Sierra MadreTraveler: your post No. 78251 earlier today...#7827106/14/02; 16:05:52

Yes indeed, your arguments about the enticing alternatives to investing in gold over the past 20 years and their effect on diverting attention from gold to paper are valid.

Another "Traveler", Odysseus, also encountered temptations in his travels: the Sirens of the witch Circe. He stopped the ears of his crew with wax and had himself tied to the mast, to avoid being lulled to the rocks by the Sirens.

The Siren-song of our times is "interest". Yes, disregard fundamentals, pay no attention to basics: you'll get such-and-such "interest" (a kind of spendable "brownie points") and if the risk (if ever the word is mentioned) appears higher, well, you'll get more juicy brownie points.

Interest on checkable deposits: this is something rather like squaring the circle or having your cake and eating it too.

Interest, the Siren song that bends the will of the most sagacious Wall Streeters.

Until, one day, your country becomes another Argentina. Want to play games with interest and "higher returns"? Just remember, "he who sups with the Devil had best have a long spoon."


Sierra MadreJimbo: about investment newsletters....#7827206/14/02; 16:15:07

We generally tend to believe that whatever we read in print is truthful and factual. The American mentality is that people are honest and that if you pay for a newsletter that gives you advice, you are getting honest advice.

Cynicism time!! Haven't Enron and Andersen broken the spell yet? Are we still believing T.V. Analysts who promote stocks according to instructions or other interest$?

If investment newsletters are not paying attention to gold stocks or gold stock funds, I say, "be very suspicious".

Suspect unconfessed interests behind the editorial action.

Suspect commissions from the popular and mega-huge popular stock funds, for mentioning them. Important commissions that make the difference between profit (large) and misery.

We have a saying in Espanish: "With money dance the dog".

You want the dog to dance? You pay your nickel.

Sound logical?


R PowellStrange COT numbers in gold#7827306/14/02; 16:56:18

When the commercials and noncommercials are totaled we have just about all the big players. These are reportable numbers (large number of contracts have to be reported) and then the non-reportables (small speculators) numbers are derived by subtracting the combined reportable positions from the total number of positions. So, the so-called commercials and non-commercials include all the big players. Some people believe that the commercials are the "smart" money as they are the produces and users. I don't agree with this in metals as yearly production numbers are nowhere near as price-moving in metals as they are in other (grown) commodities where one year's production is far greater than the total carryover from the previous year. However, the combined commercial and non-commercial numbers represent all the big players. Non-reportables are mostly small individuals like myself. (No, I didn't bail out!)
Look at the combined commercial and non-commercial change in short positions and the change in long positions among the little guys. It is almost unheard of to have both groups of big boys acting in sync. I see this as the little guys all bailing out as POG lost ground. Strange that the big money guys merely reduced their shorts. The weak hands folded, the strong money didn't flinch! This is very unusual. Thoughts-???
Once again- Friday!!
Happy Weekend to All

mikal"Stocks Recover" Revisited ?#7827406/14/02; 17:17:57

The skillful and stealthy official support of the major US stock indices these last few years must be coming to an end. Using the same sound bites and easily digested slogans cannot erase the unimaginative, stale, and decaying odor emitted by recent mainstream coverage of the markets,e.g.:"Stocks Recover From Early Drop", by Elizabeth Lazarowitz, June 14,2002, 5:16 PM ET ...snippit....."Still, investors remained wary of buying aggressively.....Investors are increasingly skittish. They feel as though their trust has been link for more...###### Repeated over and over, "coverage of the markets" in newswire after newswire, and now enjoining the criticism of Wall St., in vogue along with "jitters" and "skepticism". This toxic phase has a short half-life.
BillinOregonInteresting Article#7827506/14/02; 17:47:12

(Hello Reify)

Gold: Silver Lining to Dark Economic Clouds Part II
Bernard Connolly AIG Trading Group


The problems of Japan are wholly intractable. The public debt catastrophe alone is enough to justify that conclusion. A crisis, although its precise timing cannot be predicted, cannot be avoided for very much longer. With a debt-to-GDP ratio of around 250% and a true budget deficit in double figures as a percentage of GDP, there is no feasible alternative to a choice between outright default, government expropriation of private sector assets and a massive inflationary repudiation of government debt. Default or expropriation would bankrupt the
life insurance sector, with potentially alarming social and political consequences. Inflation is the more likely outcome. The route to very rapid inflation will be through a massively-depreciating yen. What would that involve? Once the process began, no-one in the private sector would willingly hold any government debt except at massively-increased yields. So the BoJ would have to acquire the whole government debt stock. That would involve something like a twenty-fold increase in the monetary base.

EconoclastHow much Physical does Dinsa Mehta have stashed away?#7827606/14/02; 18:00:20

Yesterday, The Victorian asked if it is possible for the shorts to hold POG at these levels to get themselves out and then be long and let the price rise.

In my opinion, the answer is both yes and no. Let me explain.

In the paper/trading sense, the answer is no. The only way that JPMC or any other banking entity can hold the price down is by selling more and more paper. If they were to buy an offsetting amount of paper in even greater quantity to become net long, that would push the price up the same way that their selling pushes the price down.
I don't believe it is possible for them to be positioned for a run up in the price of gold (assuming there is this massive short position that is holding down the POG)

But let's change the perspective a little bit. I often see the question thrown out "who is doing all the buying of the leased gold?"

Maybe the firm JPMC (or any corporate entity-I'm just using them as the example) is massively short. But what about the actual human beings that reside within that fictional/corporate entity? It has been my belief that the bankers/traders who are participating in this POG suppression are the ones doing the buying. After all, they know better than us, who are trying to figure the story out by bits and pieces, what is going on. They're the ones doing it. And they didn't get to where they are by being stupid. If we can see the writing on the wall regarding the future of gold, of course they can as well.

"He who has the gold makes the rules."

Look at Martin Armstrong as one example. He made his living as a trader shorting gold, yet he had a whole closet of the stuff when he was arrested. Sure the bullion bankers’ firm might go bankrupt but so what! They rule the world as long as the fiat game keeps going. If/When it ever does implode on them, they have successfully transferred gold from all the CB's of the world into their own hands, so guess what, after their firm goes bankrupt (along with the fiat system) they still have the gold, therefore, they still get to make the rules.

It's kind of depressing but I think that is what is going on.

R PowellBillinOregon#7827706/14/02; 18:05:32

Thanks for the thoughts from AIG.
Interesting too, if Japan's money becomes toast, they will not be able to pay any obligations. These may range from international debts to any and all social security, retirement, or military and civil service payments.
Too bad history doesn't teach economists about John Law and Ponzi. Maybe the Bank of Japan could get one of those new platinum credit cards that offer debt transfers at only 1.9% for six months with no transfer fees!
There's a great book about paper money becoming worthless. It's "When Money Dies" by Ferguson. It contains some fascinating tales.

sectorWhat Bernard Connnely [AIG] Didn't Say About Japan in San Francisco#7827806/14/02; 18:07:25

There is $620 Billion in ready cash to buy gold.

It's being held by Japanese elders in their 60's and 70's in liquid accounts jus waiting for he yen to continue it's march downward.

Connelly's idea of a massive Japanese debt default or repudiation of 20 times current currency values would be a World-Shaking financial event. This ticking time bomb sits out there daring the wiser Japanese to self-insure with gold.

Such an event would wreck the US economy by removing long-time buyers for our equities, bonds and other US financial instruments. Perhaps this is why Robert Rubin has been day-tripping to Japan so much these days. He may be trying to time the inevitable crash date to coincide with a coming US as to make it seem that everybody's in the same boat….Everybody...except those who hold gold.

Connelly seems to be saying that if one held gold they would see a 20X gain in yen terms. Not bad for a "Barbarous Relic".

jinx44Slingshot--George Washington's Vision at Valley Forge#7827906/14/02; 18:44:24

If this is true, it is a beautiful thing.

George Washington's Vision

Originally published by Wesley Bradshaw in the National Tribune, Vol. 4, No. 12, December 1880.

The last time I ever saw Anthony Sherman was on July 4, 1859, in Independence Square. He was then 99 years old, and becoming very feeble. But though so old, his dimming eyes rekindled as he gazed upon Independence Hall, which he came to visit once more.
"Let us go into the hall," he said. "I want to tell you an incident of Washington's life ­ one which no one alive knows of except myself; and, if you live, you will before long, see it verified."
"From the opening of the Revolution we experienced all phases of fortune, now good and now ill; one time victorious and another conquered. The darkest period we had, I think, was when Washington, after several reverses, retreated to Valley Forge, where he resolved to spend the winter of 1777. Ah! I have often seen our dear commander's care­worn cheeks, as he would be conversing with a confidential officer about the condition of his poor soldiers. You have doubtless heard the story of Washington's going to the thicket to pray. Well, it was not only true, but he used often to pray in secret for aid and comfort from God, the interposition of whose Divine Providence brought us safely through the darkest days of tribulation."
"One day, I remember well, the chilly winds whistled through the leafless trees, though the sky was cloudless and the sun shone brightly, he remained in his quarters nearly all the afternoon alone. When he came out, I noticed that his face was a shade paler than usual, and there seemed to be something on his mind of more than ordinary importance. Returning just after dusk, he dispatched an orderly to the quarters of the officer I mention who was presently in attendance. After a preliminary conversation of about half an hour, Washington, gazing upon his companion with that strange look of dignity which he alone could command said to the latter:"
"I do not know whether it is owing to anxiety of my mind, or what, but this afternoon, as I was sitting at this table engaged in preparing a dispatch, something seemed to disturb me. Looking up, I beheld standing opposite me a singularly beautiful female. So astonished was I, for I had given strict orders not to be disturbed, that it was some moments before I found language to inquire the cause of her presence. A second, a third, and even a fourth time did I repeat my question, but received no answer from my mysterious visitor except a slight raising of her eyes.
"Presently I heard a voice saying, "Son of the Republic, look and learn," while at the same time my visitor extended her arm eastwardly. I now beheld a heavy white vapor at some distance rising fold upon fold. This gradually dissipated, and I looked upon a strange scene. Before me lay spread out in one vast plain all the countries of the world---Europe, Asia, Africa, and America. I saw rolling and tossing, between Europe and America, the billows of the Atlantic, and between Asia and America lay the Pacific.
"Son of the Republic," said the same mysterious voice as before, "look and learn." At that moment I beheld a dark, shadowy being, like an angel, standing, or rather floating, in the hollow air, between Europe and America. Dipping water out of the ocean in the hollow of each hand, he sprinkled some upon America with his right hand while with his left hand he cast some on Europe. Immediately a cloud raised from these countries and joined in mid-ocean. For a while it remained stationary, and then moved slowly westward, until it enveloped America in its murky folds. Sharp flashes of lightning gleamed through it at intervals, and I heard the smothered groans and cries of the American people.
"A second time the angel dipped water from the ocean, and sprinkled it out as before. The dark cloud was then drawn back to the ocean, in whose heaving billows it sank from view. A third time I heard the mysterious voice saying, "Son of the Republic, look and learn." I cast my eyes upon America and beheld villages and towns and cities springing up one after another until the whole land, from the Atlantic to the Pacific, was dotted with them. Again I head the mysterious voice say, "Son of the Republic, the end of the century cometh, look and learn."
"At this the dark shadowy angel turned his face southward, and from Africa I saw an ill-omened spectre approach our land. It flitted slowly over every town and city of the latter. The inhabitants presently set themselves in battle array against each other. As I continued looking, I saw a bright angel, on whose brow rested a crown of light, on which was traced the word "Union," bearing the American flag which he placed between the divided nation, and said, "Remember ye are brethren." Instantly, the inhabitants casting from them their weapons became friends once more, and united around the National Standard.
"And again I heard the mysterious voice saying, "Son of the Republic, look and learn." At this, the dark, shadowy angel placed a trumpet to his mouth and blew three distinct blasts; and taking water from the ocean, he sprinkled it upon Europe, Asia, and Africa. Then my eyes beheld a fearful scene. From each of these countries arose thick, black clouds that were soon joined into one. And throughout this mass, there gleamed a dark red light by which I saw hordes of armed men, who, moving with the cloud, marched by land and sailed by sea to America, which country was enveloped in the volume of cloud. And I dimly saw these vast armies devastate the whole country, and burn the villages, towns and cities that I beheld springing up.
"As my ears listened to the thundering of the cannon, clashing of swords, and the shouts and cries of millions in mortal combat., I again heard the mysterious voice saying, "Son of the Republic, look and learn." When the voice had ceased, the dark shadowy angel placed his trumpet once more to his mouth, and blew a long and fearful blast.
"Instantly a light as of a thousand suns shone down from above me, and pierced and broke into fragments the dark cloud which enveloped America. At the same moment the angel upon whose head still shone the word "Union," and who bore our national flag in one hand and a sword in the other, descended from the heavens attended by legions of white spirits. These immediately joined the inhabitants of America, who I perceived were well-nigh overcome, but who immediately taking courage again closed up their broken ranks and renewed the battle. Again, amid the fearful noise of the conflict, I heard the mysterious voice saying, "Son of the Republic, look and learn."
"As the voice ceased, the shadowy angel for the last time dipped water from the ocean and sprinkled it upon America. Instantly the dark cloud rolled back, together with the armies it had brought, leaving the inhabitants of the land victorious.
"Then once more I beheld the villages, towns and cities, springing up where I had seen them before, while the bright angel, plating the azure standard he had brought in the midst of them, cried with a loud voice: "While the stars remain, and the heavens send down dew upon the earth, so long shall the Union last." And taking from his brow the crown on which was blazoned the word "Union," he placed it upon the Standard, while the people, kneeling down, said "Amen."
"The scene instantly began to fade and dissolve, and I at last saw nothing but the rising, curling vapor I at first beheld. This also disappearing, I found myself once more gazing upon the mysterious visitor, who in the same voice I had heard before, said, "Son of the Republic, what you have seen is thus interpreted. Three great perils will come upon the Republic. The most fearful is the third."
"(The comment on his word ‘third’ is: The help against the THIRD peril comes in the shape of Divine assistance; passing which, the whole world united shall not prevail against her. Let every child of the Republic learn to live for his God, his land and Union.)"
"With these words the vision vanished, and I started from my seat and felt that I had seen a vision wherein had been shown me the birth, progress, and destiny of the UNITED STATES."
"Such, my friends," concluded the venerable narrator, "were the words I heard from Washington's own lips, and America will do well to profit by them."

segel_fliegerRe: Strange COT numbers in gold#7828006/14/02; 18:49:08

I tend to see the big sell off by small specs as not particularly strange at all. Those that "bailed out" probably fall into 2 categories; Some sold out because they were already over comitted to begin with. That is the reason a very high percentage of small futures traders loss money, they use much more leverage than they should given the size of their pockets. Just a small pullback generates margin calls for some of these guys.

The second group were those that had a very short term perspective to begin with. Given the way the media treats Gold ownership (EVERY price rise is ALWAYS attributed to some sound bite current event that is most likely short term in nature). Few small traders really understand the long term reasons for holding gold, so many of them figured it was time to take profits and run.

Jim Sinclair recently wrote that he felt the current correction was engineered by long specs with deep pockets. The small spec liquidation in the COT report is in agreement with this notion. Big traders often "shake the tree" hard occassionally to get positions held by weak hands on the cheap. The sharp run-up in gold shares and the recent "bone jarring" correction also supports his notion.

PizzGoing down for the count - but with a bang#7828106/14/02; 20:46:08

It is not an uncommon occurance, right before death, to have the body boldly muster every last ounce of strength in a vain and futile attempt to overcome the inevitable. The auto manufactuers are drawing the battle lines, and very few will survive.

Over the next three months we are going to have the opportunity to observe one of the largest, world-wide corporate battles ever to face modern society.

Unfortunatly, again, it will be the unsuspecting sheeple who will be fleeced of their last available dollar, and their last available ounce of credit wether credit card, bank line, mortgage line, etc.

The auto manufacturers are increasing production and the first round of incentives are already being given to dealers. We started getting ours yesterday with the factories detailing the ads, ad budgets, increased dealer co-op budgets, and then the standard "stuff the dealer" with all the inventory his floor plan allowance can handle for the biggest summer push on new vehilces we will ever see in our lifetimes.

Is this normal after 5 straight years of record sales and recession right around the corner. ABSOLUTELY NOT. The reason? Because the incentives are so deep and persuasive that the market is going to be totally disrupted and virtually disintegrated for 2 to 5 years. Now why would they do that? Go back to my first paragraph for the answer.

I have never been more convinced of a catastrophe coming to the world than I am right now. There is no other reason for these corporate behemoths to destroy the market other than the fact that in their collective opinions (and these CEO's and chairmen talk to the powers that be) THERE WILL BE VIRTUALLY NO MARKET FOR THEIR PRODUCTS AFTER THIS SUMMER.

Over the next few months, no matter what happens to the stock markets, no matter what happens to the price of PM's, hang on to your PM positions and increase them to the best of your ability.

Get liquid, get out of all variable, revolving debt, and take Black Blade's advice. It would appear to me that the mother of all wars will be starting this fall, and I think the CEO's of all the conglomerates know it's coming.

We have a few months, I think.


YGMFrom GE message Board....#7828206/14/02; 22:48:58

German Interview re Gold ...3rd paragraph.....

Gold glitters again"
(hugo) Jun 14, 16:03

Just saw "3-Sat Börse",a german TV show on markets.They had a very positive special about Gold.And all the facts came properly-supply deficit,unstable financial system,weak stock markets,Japan,Argentina,weak $ (!).

An analyst (hats off to him) from Bremer Landesbank was interviewd,he gave some Gold stock recs (DROOY and HGMCY,mentioned that they are hedge free (DROOY at end of month),well mananged,gearing,lots of sleeeping reserves),ABX and AU were mentioned as hands off.

***The interviewer asked about the huge stockpile of central banks-the analyst replied that they are not as big as one thinks,lots on loan'swapped etc (he said officially 5000t out of 30000t is leased) and that the paper demand is saturated.The 1000t gap persist for years. And finally HE SAID IT IS THOUGHT THAT ABOUT 15000t ARE LOANED,hell,isn't that the GATA number?(though I did not hear the word manipulation)***

His target for this year is 380-400$/oz,but sees a lot more potential.

The word is out,to quote Bill.Get on board,is there a better opportunity than this correction?


TopazYGM re Oz Gold#7828306/14/02; 23:57:56

No change here YGM apart from the steady increase in US$ value of Gold holdings - who'd sell such a well performing asset eh?
I believe half the 80T is leased though.

Black BladeWall Street May Cut More Jobs in Worst Year Since `97 #782846/15/02; 00:51:52


New York, June 14 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street firms, set to take in the lowest revenue since 1997, are likely to cut more jobs in coming months, recruiters and money managers say. Firms refrained from more firings in part because they expected an economic recovery would spur stock sales and mergers, boosting fees and profits for the industry, some investors say. With mergers down 43 percent this year and stock sales 13 percent lower, Morgan Stanley, Goldman, Lehman and Bear Stearns Cos. next week are likely to report an average drop of 10 percent in quarterly profit, analysts say. ``Major cutbacks have to happen because it's just impossible to imagine current staff levels in this business environment,'' said Richard Lipstein, managing director at recruiting firm Gilbert Tweed Associates Inc.

Black Blade: The much touted economic recovery is in doubt. It would appear that in the current environment we will see more job losses as the consumer is tapped out and can no longer continue on with the so-called "consumer led recovery". The Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey dropped sharply this month by nearly 6 percentage points. Wall Street firms have been laying off workers since early 2000 when the tech bubble burst and there is no sign of a turn around yet, in spite of consistent calls of an economic turnaround every quarter since 2000. Many unemployed have simply given up looking for work and many do not qualify for benefits. Is it not strange that the BLS now considers these people employed? There is no economic recovery and no sign of an impending economic recovery.

TopazUS$ index#782856/15/02; 01:01:24

The current "basing" @ 110-111 is reminiscent of Aug '01. The subsequent "fall off the cliff" is countered by post 911 strength as The Bush Admin. took positive steps to quickly and effectively rid the World of Terrorism. It would appear the World (as of Feb '02) has percieved the BA to be less than effective in this persuit and the $ has suffered accordingly.
Where to from here?....A repeat of the pre/post 911 pattern is not out of the question.

Black BladeOffice Space Glut#782866/15/02; 01:02:46



Flocks of speculators -- awash with cash and emboldened by mounting office vacancies -- have begun circling Silicon Valley in hopes of snatching prime property at rock-bottom prices. Vacancy rates are possibly the highest in the country, seemingly a perfect time for deal-making, but sales have been few and far-between.

Black Blade: The beginning of the end for the real estate bubble? As markets tumble investors are looking for alternatives and real estate would be expected to be one alternative. However, consumers are burdened with record levels of crushing debt. It would appear that there is less free cash available for extraneous purchases of real estate -- especially now with record home ownership and a glut of office space. One warning sign will be to watch for declining values of real estate investment trusts (REIT). Just another sign of a retracting economy.

Black BladeConsumer sentiment drops #782876/15/02; 01:17:12

Plunge surprises economists; industrial production, capacity use rise; business inventories fall.


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The closely watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell sharply in June, according to published reports Friday, surprising economists and pointing to a possibly sluggish recovery in the broader U.S. economy. Coming a day after the government reported a sharp drop in retail sales in May, the news raised more questions about the ability of consumers to bear up under falling stock prices, terror threats and unemployment. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 90.8 from 96.9 in May, according to a Reuters report. Economists surveyed by expected the index to slip to 96.6.

Black Blade: Economists have been saying that the economic recovery is based on consumers willingness to spend their way out of the recession. That may be a tall order under the circumstances. If the US equities markets end in negative territory this year, we will have seen three continuous years of negative returns. In short, this has not happened since the Great Depression. Yet the financial media Trolls and Wall Street Pied Pipers continue to claims that the economy gas been recovering or will recover (always "next quarter"). This is not likely in face of the growing record level corporate and consumer debt and declining corporate "net" earnings (not "Pro Forma" or "Operating Earnings") no matter how well the companies and their auditors "cook the books".

Black BladeDollar Reaches 17-Month Low vs Euro; Falling Stocks Curb Demand#782886/15/02; 01:39:45


New York, June 14 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar reached a 17- month low against the euro as declining U.S. stocks and a car bomb near a U.S. consulate in Pakistan fueled speculation foreigners will shun investing in the world's biggest economy. ``The U.S. needs more cash'' than other major economies to offset its current account deficit, said Michael Malpede, senior foreign exchange analyst at Refco Inc. in Chicago. The bombing ``is directed at the U.S.,'' and is a reason for investors to funnel money to other nations, he said.

Black Blade: JP Morgan Chase economist Stephen Roach recently suggested that the US Dollar is 15% or more overvalued. Others content that it is more overvalued than that. The Japanese have been working hard to keep the Yen weaker that other major currencies even as the US Dollar has weakened. Japan has the misfortune of having no natural resources and must buy raw materials to feed the Japanese factories. They are an export led economy. Without exports the worlds second largest economy is history. They can afford a weak currency to purchase raw materials from minor countries with even weaker currencies, but they "must" have a weaker currency to be competitive in their major export markets (The US and Europe). Japan went to war once because they had no natural resources and they are backed up against the wall once again. The US needs a weaker currency in order to mend the enormous trade deficit and to become more competitive in an ever shrinking global market. The result as far as we are concerned here is that Gold prices will at the very least likely rise proportionately as the dollar devalues. Also Gold purchases will increase as some citizens in countries where the currency devalues are likely to seek out safe haven investments such as Gold. There is a race to devalue - the question is who will win - The US or Japan.

Black BladeSigns point to 'crisis' shift to precious metals #782896/15/02; 02:06:06

Rich mining stocks to get richer


SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- Here's the question of the year: When the investing public, already headed for the exits, runs screaming from the U.S. stock market, how will gold mining stocks, and gold, benefit? Gold mining stocks, the best performing stock market group this year, have a life of their own. Since September, the mining equities actually have risen ahead of the spot gold price.

Black Blade: Though this article concerns Gold stocks more than bullion, keep in mind that Gold stocks tend to run ahead of the metal price. Considering the outstanding run in shares, we could expect to see even greater gains ahead. Yet the metal has risen very well over the last several months (outperforming most all other asset classes). We should see further gains ahead for Gold as the fundamentals for most all other investments are deteriorating. Wayne Murdy, CEO of Newmont announced at the recent 2002 LBMA conference that the mining industry needed a price of $350 an ounce Gold in order to remain viable. We are still short. Also, demand is greater than supply. There is virtually no new exploration to replace reserves and it takes a minimum of 5 years to even start a mine, let alone produce Gold. Current mines are depleting fast and may companies have high-graded their reserves. The outlook for Gold continues to look positive.

WaveriderBlack Blade - Exploration#782906/15/02; 03:27:16

Regarding your comment that there is virtually no new exploration to replace seemed apparent at the Vancouver Gold conference that there are a number of exploration companies active in Canada, Mexico, Peru, etc. I know of two that are drilling immediately adjacent to GG in the Red Lake Area, and GG itself is actively testing to extend its high grade and sulphide zones, as well as testing two new areas. I know this isn't representative of the industry as a whole but it seems to be something...I'm trying to reconcile your comments about no new exploration with information I gleaned from the conference. Thoughts? TIA.
Black BladeWaverider -- Exploration#782916/15/02; 04:22:05

Generally there is very little meaningful grass roots exploration activity for Gold, Silver, and Copper. Most of any drilling is most likely development work around existing mines. There may be some exploration around previously abandoned projects and a few isolated projects in some Third World locales. However, mineral exploration is just a shell of what it was only 5 or 6 years ago. It is easier for large companies to swallow up smaller companies than to search out new ore reserves.

The industry is very depressed and most exploration people (geologists, drilling companies, etc) have moved on to greener pastures. I left the mining and metals exploration side for the petroleum exploration side (for the third time) due to the change in the current cycle. I know of several dozen geologists who have done the same and in our small community we all know several more. There has been a major shift of experienced exploration people from the mineral side to the petroleum side, and many more who have left the business all together. It will be rather difficult to retrieve these people to the mineral side while the petroleum side is in somewhat better shape.

Right now I am just taking it easy for a few months after several years of traveling to and fro. I am going to the gym, slaying fish, and catching up on a lot of reading. Hopefully the rise in the POG will continue to run higher and new exploration projects will come online, however, I am not all that anxious to go back right now anyway unless something exciting comes along. Besides, the petroleum side is much more lucrative and there are fish to slay in Yellowstone country. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black BladeNerves add to gold's lustre #782926/15/02; 04:42:59