USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

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Black BladeWithout mercy: Israelis execute Arafat's elite guards #7245504/01/02; 00:02:30,6903,676624,00.html

Interesting accounts

Black Blade: There are other reports of summary executions of unarmed prisoners in the West Bank. This isn't anything new. We in the US have seen this behavior before at the hands of the Israelis. Case in point – The USS Liberty massacre in June 1967.

Black BladeAuthorities hope that removal of protection for account holders will not cause total collapse of confidence #724564/1/02; 00:15:05,3604,677140,00.html

Japan's savers have to share banks' pain


Japanese depositors will be exposed to the risks of the country's sickly banking system from today, raising concerns that a rush of withdrawals could push wobbly financial institutions over the edge. Although the country's banks hobbled through the end-of-year book-closing season without the crisis that had been widely predicted, they are still straining under the weight of trillions of yen of bad loans. As the authorities winnow out the weakest institutions, smaller regional banks and credit unions have collapsed at the rate of about one a week over the past year.

These failures made little impact on public confidence because the government has guaranteed all deposits since the financial crisis in 1997. From today, however, this protection will be scaled back, which means ordinary savers will share the pain if their institutions go under.

That has already prompted a flight to safety. Over the past 12 months, deposits in ordinary savings accounts (which will be fully protected for one more year) increased 16.3%. Since January, the price of gold has shot up by more than 40%.

That has not stopped the big banks from trying to deter savers from moving their assets. Mizuho, the world's biggest banking group, and several other institutions will cut their standard account interest rates from 0.001% a year from the current 0.02%. This means that a £1,000 deposit will make less interest in an entire year than the charge for a single ATM withdrawal.

Black Blade: In a word – "GRIM"

WaveriderArab policies blamed for massive flight of capital #724574/1/02; 01:13:17

"The Arab League's top monetary official has lambasted Arab governments' economic and fiscal policies, saying they are to blame for an exhaustive capital flight, slow growth and a festering unemployment problem.

Manai acknowledged some progress had been made in economic reforms in the region but stressed more measures are needed. He noted most Arab governments do not have control over the interest rates because their currencies are pegged against the dollar or a basket of currencies.

"The dollar or the basket is determining the interest rate. Arab states cannot expect overseas Arab funds to return with a move by a magic stick...we should stop being emotional because such investments will start coming back if our investors feel something concrete has been achieved rather than listening to mere talk."

Recent estimates put Arab funds abroad at nearly $2.4 trillion, but officials and experts believe there is no accurate figure about such assets, which are concentrated in the West in bank deposits, bonds and real estate."

Waverider: It appears the Arabs are examining the need for financial and economic reforms to facilitate repatriation of their overseas assets. Could that be one reason ME Gold purchases have increased....hmmmm. Cheers!

Black BladeArabs could check Israel through economic measures: Saddam#724584/1/02; 02:23:20


BAGHDAD, March 31 (AFP) - Iraqi President Saddam Hussein said Sunday that Arabs could halt Israel's military push in the West Bank by threatening an economic sanctions on the United States.

"If just two Arab countries used the economic threat against a part of the world which only understands the language of its own interests, the Israeli army would immediately withdraw from autonomous areas" Saddam was quoted as saying by state television.

Black Blade: He's probably right.

Black BladeNY Crude Blasts Higher!#724594/1/02; 02:33:51

NY Crude is higher by 98 cents. Light sweet crude is sitting at $27.29/bbl on fears that the war in Palestine will spread to other regions in the Middle East and even possibly lead to US intervention and ultimately to war in Iraq. There are possible actions that other OPEC members may take as well as increased odds that terrorist attacks may spread to Europe and even the US. So far Gold and Silver have not reacted to these threats.

- Black Blade

Black BladeIsraeli Tanks Enter Bethlehem #724604/1/02; 02:44:54


Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said Israel was at war for its survival and vowed to smash Palestinian militants in an uncompromising offensive as he addressed a nation rattled by five suicide bombings in five days — including back-to-back attacks Sunday that killed 15 Israelis.

Marking a widening of the operation in the West Bank, Israeli tanks entered Bethlehem just before sunrise Monday, stopping 500 yards from the Church of the Nativity, which marks the traditional birthplace of Jesus, witnesses said. Forces also moved into the village of Al Khader, southwest of Bethlehem, witnesses said.

In Ramallah, under Israeli control since Friday, dozens of European peace activists, their arms raised and holding white flags, marched past Israeli soldiers surrounding Yasser Arafat (news - web sites)'s office to join the Palestinian leader, saying they would stay with him as human shields. Thirteen of the peace activists were arrested after they left Arafat's office, the military said. The spokesman's office said they could face charges of violating order closing Ramallah to foreigners.

Black Blade: Just on the wires is that two Palestinians went on a shooting spree killing 8 Israelis. This war is really escalating as Israeli troops and tanks invade other regions of Palestine.

Black BladeRussia Not Likely To Deliver Palladium (or Platinum) ..... Again#724614/1/02; 03:10:51

There are rumors that Russia will not deliver Palladium to Japanese markets as expected this month. Gee, what a surprise. We will have to wait and see if the dishonest managers at the TOCOM will default on PGM contracts as they have in the past. It appears that Russia's state precious metals export agency, Almazjuvelirexport simply does not have sufficient supply in their stockpile as the mining at Norilsk has been rather slow and therefore the mining of by-product PGMs has not yielded the necessary supply to meet Russian obligations. This is nothing new of course, however, I would suspect that both Palladium and Platinum prices will rise as PGM deliveries fail to materialize and TOCOM defaults are announced. It could be at least 3 months before stockpiles are built up to sufficient levels for export. We have seen this scenario play out time after time with the Russian PGM contracts.

- Black Blade

Black BladeJapan Starts New Fiscal Year Haunted by Old Demons#724624/1/02; 03:56:08


TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan began its new fiscal year on Monday haunted by familiar demons -- weak economic data, eroding public support for scandal-tainted politicians, a corporate bankruptcy and lingering worries over banks.

Souring the first trading day of the new business year, prices of government bonds fell and the yen came under pressure, while Tokyo stocks hovered in and out of negative territory before ending flat.

Markets took their cue from disappointing results in the Bank of Japan's ``tankan'' quarterly survey, which showed corporate confidence leveling out in March after falling for five straight quarters -- worse than market forecasts of a modest improvement.

Black Blade: A study of world events and the depressed Global Economy confirms that we live in "Interesting Times". Gold and Silver portfolio insurance is a must.

Belgian@ Waverider - Gulf article#724634/1/02; 04:13:49

The Middle East and the Gulf states in particular are slowly but surely waking up from their previous US$-automatisms ! One day, the US$ will not be that holy cow, they considered almost as good (reliable) as their Gold !
The speeding and scaling up on the Dubai Gold and trade center is evidence of the increased tendency/initiative for more dollar independance . Expat US$ might even return under the form of euro currency when the euro succeeds in gaining its dept ?
The same applies for all Russian expat dollars, located in Europ.

My TI on the euro/dollar-chart is positive in favor of the euro. There must be a European advantage, connected to the temporary and artificial undervaluation of the euro to the dollar. An euro/dollar exchange rate waiting for the most opportune moment to reverse completely the proportions, together with a POG already gaining momentum.
A substantial strengthening euro against the dollar will inevitably attrackt a lot of specific attention ! Even without taking the fundamentals into consideration...the chart (pattern) is suggesting this already very strongly.
No, we don't have breaking points or reverse directional move already ! But a bottoming pattern is building, without excluding another small(er) period
of dollar strenght.
IMVHO, it is not the US$ who is in charge of the euro exchange rate. The euro decides for itself how it wants to relate to the dollar. Big difference.
The dollar cannot colonize the euro as is done with so many other currencies, where strong dollars can plunder (systemically) these countries (South Africa/Argentina/Turkey/Australia/etc...) valuables. Some day this euro-independance will be
remarked by the enslaved and even appreciated or copied. The modus operandi of the Argentine-dollar-Trap is a good up to date lesson on how the dollar and its pseudo-confidence are plundering people and states OVERNIGHT ! Nothing about this drama in European news ! You certainly guess why. Not only single emotion of all these Argintine savers who lost 2/3 of their life savings OVERNIGHT ! And still aren't able to pick up some pieces of what is left from it. But it happened to so many other innocent and unknown individuals. It might happen with the world's number one savers as well : The japanse !
Chinese, Russians and Gulfers will intuitively starting to feel from where the wind is coming. That's why the euro waits for the appropiate moment to pop up as a valuable alternative. Not too early and not too late !
Regards. Belgian.

PippinNickel62 - SierraMadre - Cavan Man : many thanks...#724644/1/02; 04:49:52

...for your suggestions of reading material. Some interesting hours in perspectives indeed.
Independently of the "trail", I started with Nickel62's repost of ORO/Aristotle message. Quite counter-intuitive sometimes - at least at my level.

Before I started this effort, I believed that the foundation of Economy was advanced mathematics. I now realise that it is also, or even more, related to philosophy - and basic arithmetic.

Thanks again.

ChrusosThe ant and the elephant - Howe case fulminations#724654/1/02; 07:40:45

This is a bit late but i have been enjoying the holidays and taking a break from my pc.

Howe has fought valiantly and will go down in history as an individual who tried to reveal the gold fraud and who clearly specified the gold price manipulation by international governments and central banks on the public record.

Interestingly - the judge does not address or dispute the fact that the gold market is manipulated (somewhat like the defendants I recall). In fact he gives quite an able summary of the mechanics of manipulation indicating he might have found the evidence persuasive. However the legal point addressed is that that Reg. Howes shares are only indirectly related to the POG. So he cannot be paid damages under the Sherman anti trust act.

A direct participant who trades the gold market should be the plaintiffs or the gold mining companies themselves the judge alleges. These parties do not have the mettle of Reg Howe as we all know. Gold traders are happy to pick up the precious metal at these non precious prices and for central banks to transfer the accumulated gold wealth of millions of taxpayers in the Western nation states to private and other parties possibly purchasing it in behalf of their countries and governments. All this in a vain effort to prolong a doomed debt and fiat paper/digital currency!

In the second part of the judgement where it was argued that the defendants Greenspan Summers et al were immune from prosecution as they are specifically authorized by statute of congress to deal in gold and therefor did not exceed their authority.

Under further actions ie the BIS violates SEC law - there is complex set of legalese and the judge concludes BIS actions do not. Lastly on the fraud or violation of fiduciary duty of the parties the judge does not find any instance although this part seems a triumph of form (legalese) over substance e.g. unless your hand in the till while on camera then despite the fact that cash is missing it does not count.

The shameful and deceptive activities covered under a quilt of interlocking US legalese cases will drive US taxpayers crazy when they find out - yes we sold/ swapped/encumbered much of US the gold but we had authorization even though we didn't openly declare or show this and Congress actively supported this except for 1 man Ron Paul.

Just like Enron - the whole value has been destroyed but there is not one person to recover from. Regulators, Directors and staff, accountants, Wall street analysts, investment banks, pension fund asset managers, credit rating agencies, the press - the whole system was too stupid or actively supported or turned a blind eye to an $80 billion lie. "The emperor was fully clothed we thought - at least from our narrow perspective you can argue that he was not unclothed or if he was naked in the part we were observing we assumed, as he was the emperor, that the rest was in fact clothed."

Reminds of the Martin Mayer's quote "that derivatives are a way of shifting risk to the dumbest guy in the room"

Ultimately one gets the impression in the case judgement of ant challenging an elephant and to even get so far has proved that a very determined ant could get ten thousand times further than could ever be imagined.

Reg we SALUTE YOU for succinctly and completely revealing the gold manipulation on the public record for posterity. We commend your supreme courage and superhuman effort in your quest against all the key US Govt. financial institutions and the powerful international central bank of central banks the BIS.


nickel62Chrusos May I join you in your tribute to :#724664/1/02; 07:53:48

Reg Howe, and the courageous effort he put forth? Thanks also for your analysis. It was very helpful...The Martin Mayer's quote "that derivatives are a way of shifting risk to the dumbest guy in the room"

Is the best line I have heard in days. Thanks

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"Frequently investors will say that any kind of gold will do because after all gold is gold, isn't it? This type of attitude has helped a great many coin shop owners unload unwanted inventory they hadn't been able to get rid of for years. This is probably a good deal for the coin dealer, but it could spell disaster for you. In the same vein, I have talked to hundreds, probably thousands, of investors in nearly a quarter century in the business. Quite often, potential investors have no more reason for buying gold than 'everybody else is doing it.'

"In Chapter 16 on portfolio planning, you will find some details on this important subject. For now, consider the inscription over the entrance to the temple of the ancient Delphic Oracle: 'Know Thyself.' Study. Read. Learn what's going on around you. Call a few gold firms and ask questions. There's nothing like conversation to stimulate thinking. Take time to lay a little groundwork. Then make your move. The political and economic situation being what it is, there is no better time to start than now. Know thyself -- your goals and needs -- and you will be a more confident, happier gold investor." (more)

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USAGOLD Market CommentaryGold Registers Strong First Quarter Performance#724684/1/02; 09:19:48

Available online to all clientele and prospective clientele, NEWS & VIEWS Forecasts, Commentary & Analysis on the Economy and Precious Metals has again been updated.

Read the full commentary and related information here. (access codes required)

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Gold Market Brief . . . .Gold started the week retracing from recent highs despite escalating tensions in the Middle East and the potential effect they might have on oil prices. Hong Kong, Australia and London are still closed for the Easter holiday. We'll keep this short and to the point this morning hoping to drive one important point home: Gold continues to benefit from investors worldwide adjusting their portfolios to current market conditions. For the first quarter, the yellow is up 9.6% in U.S. dollars; 10.5% in euros; 10.8% in yen and 319% against the lowly Argentina peso -- making it for the moment the world's top performing primary asset. For U.S., Japanese and European investors gold's appreciation against local currencies approaches and in some cases exceeds 40% annualized. For some of the reasons why gold has become the top performing asset internationally, please review the articles to the right under Top Gold Stories and Latest / Gold Education. (At the News & Views page)

USAGOLDOn Becoming a Client of USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals#724694/1/02; 10:37:15

Randy, in reading the snippet from the ABCs just below I realized that some of the advice given was based on an erroneous presumption, i.e., that gold brokers would guide their clientele to the gold products which would meet their individual needs.

I am beginning to wonder:

One well-known gold retailer is advertising a gold bear trap which can be avoided by buying high-priced exotic rare coins and reproduction medallions at four figure prices. I would think that they can no longer refer to themselves as a "gold firm."

Another is running a television advertising program where they extol the virtues of "safe-haven" gold buying only to turn that conservative investor into a gambler through leverage plays in the gold, silver, platinum and palladium markets.

Two others, sell their silver and gold products at such high mark-ups, it's hard to imagine how the investor will ever get his head above water.

Check with USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals before commiting elsewhere. We can't tell you how many calls we've received from investors who have fallen for various sales pitch and then called us AFTER the damage had been done when they can't be helped.

We've been in the gold business for a long time. We have satisfied clients whose files nearly fill one room in our office. We have one of the best reputations in the business -- both with investors and the trade -- and we work hard to keep it that way.

BelgianWhat if....?#724704/1/02; 10:37:23

...Arafat is forced to go in (second) exile (Morocco) ?
No viable Palestinian state will ever be negociated and Gulf escalation is therefore guaranteed. US and Israel trapped in their WAT. Anti Israel events in Europ (France/Belgium). T. Blair must temporize on the Iraq issue.Not enough evidence against Saddam Hussain ?
Euroland (France) is strongly divided on the matter. Theoretically and tactically, no islamitic (!) terror acts are to be expected .
The islamic martyr/victim role is optimized (Euroland activists protecting Y.Arafat). What if Israel becomes a Libanon and US forces are lured into Israel ? How to manoeuver when more evidence of Iran's support for Palestine shows up ? This in combination with Iran being Afghanistan's neighbour. Pfffft !

Dollar declined 1% against the euro as happened with 9/11!?
Is there a consensus about the dollar's weakness when the US should carry on with its ME consolidation, dispite the obstructing events (unforeseen escalation) in Israel ?
Or is it POO (rise) that indicates dollar's weakness ? A POO above the 27 1/2 $ is a break out of the declining price-channel pattern (TA/TI).

Cavan Manthen....#724714/1/02; 11:47:46

PippinSuicide bombing due to religion ? New to me.#724724/1/02; 11:51:21

First paragraph article in the Washington post (URL above):

<<WASHINGTON –– President Bush appealed Monday for Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat to order a halt to the suicide bomb attacks in Israel and the West Bank. "Suicide bombings in the name of religion is simple terror," Bush said.>>

First time I read that the reason for the bombing is RELIGION ?? What does this mean ? Any reason for the relationship ?

Sierra MadrePippin: what that means....#724734/1/02; 12:03:35

What that means is that the person you quoted, is not capable of thinking clearly.


WaveriderAnti-Israel protests intensify across Arab world #724744/1/02; 12:23:40

"Police fired tear gas and water cannons to disperse demonstrators headed toward the Israeli Embassy in Cairo as Arabs took to the streets for a fourth straight day of anti-Israeli protests on Monday, keeping up the pressure on their governments to get tougher with Israel.
Police fired tear gas and water cannons to disperse demonstrators headed toward the Israeli Embassy in Cairo as Arabs took to the streets for a fourth straight day of anti-Israeli protests on Monday, keeping up the pressure on their governments to get tougher with Israel.

Palestinian Planning Minister Nabil Shaath on Sunday rejected U.S. criticism that Yasser Arafat can do more to stop Palestinian suicide attacks. "President Arafat is a hostage. The Palestinian people in Ramallah are hostages of Israeli forces, and the American president speaks of Israel's right to defend itself ... This is very astonishing. We have not seen this before," Shaath said after talks with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher.

In Iraq, President Saddam Hussein urged Arab countries to adopt "economic measures" against Israel and its supporters. He did not elaborate, but the ruling Baath party in a statement called on the Arabs to use oil as a weapon against Israel, apparently by cutting off supplies to the West in order to force Western powers to pressure Israel.

Waverider: Begium, you are right. But there is a variable here that shouldn't be underestimated and that is Saddam. He's using the situation to his advantage to strengthen relationships with his neighbors and convince the Arabs to cut off oil supplies...then how does the US respond...Many Arab nations are calling for an immediate UN presence in Palestine - where are they...or does the west want this to escalate?

ChrusosMid East Terror War - some of the hard facts#724754/1/02; 12:50:30

I refer to Black Blade (04/01/02; 00:02:30MT - msg#: 72455)
Without mercy: Israelis execute Arafat's elite guards

USA Gold is a gold site and Black Blades news snippets are extremely valuable to keep us informed of events that will impact gold. I prefer HIS economic news or straight war news but one-sided sniping at the most complex issue in the world the Mideast is not helpful.

Just like I wouldn't go to the normal media to find out what's up in the gold market I don't go there to find out what's happening in Israel. I subscribe to a number of first rate intelligence briefings as well as other media and persons on the ground. I feel no more sorry for Arafats Elite guards than I do for Bin Ladens elite guard. They are exactly the same – international terror groups. Do you suppose that if a Palestinian state was established it would follow western democratic principles and open society practices? Or would it join their comrades on the axis of evil? Every thing was offered to Arafat by Barak who wanted to prove that Arafat did not want peace. He wants war and is trying to ignite a holy war over the whole of the Mideast in which many Americans are likely to be killed both in the war theatre and at home before it is over.

The Palestinians are Jordanians displaced when colonial powers drew lines in the sand – naturally Jordan doesn't want them hence they don't go home to their brothers who own 22 times the territory of Israel in the mideast so they sit in refugee camps rejected by their own people. From age 3 they are taught to hate, act out suicide bombings and killings and this constant incitement continues day and night in the Palestinian and Arab media. Want to see pictures of the Palestinians rejoicing when the 9-11 attacks took place? The Palestinian holy martyrs come and collect their suicide belts and briefing from Palestinian police headquarters or groups of which Arafat is the head. Many of these terrorists and their explosives are transported in Palestinian ambulances.

Arafat is master of deception. Just like Bin Laden claims he is a peace loving man of God but the US is the super aggressor and root cause of every world problem for the faithful as they use their global reach and power to terrorize and victimize peace loving followers of Islam who then are forced to declare Jihad in retaliation.

Here is a conservative report extract on the PLO compound in Ramallah which incidentally sits on top of massive tunnels with serious military hardware – this is just one of hundreds of similarly politically incorrect intelligence briefings.

""Bush disclosed that Secretary of State Colin Powell had been unable to reach Prime Minister Ariel Sharon by telephone because Sharon was not taking calls after the Tel Aviv café suicide bombing. In this latest terror outrage, 30 Israelis were injured, 10 seriously, most of them youngsters out on the town on Saturday night.

DEBKAfile's sources report that the prime minister had a second reason for not taking overseas calls: He had just issued ultimatums to the Palestinian West Bank security chief, Jibril Rajoub, in Bitunya, and to Yasser Arafat in his besieged office in Ramallah. Rajoub was told to hand over Tanzim chief Marwan Barghouti to the soldiers encircling his command post. Arafat was called on to surrender top master terrorists responsible for dozens of serious attacks, who were enjoying sanctuary in his quarters. Among them were organizers of Israeli minister Rehavam Zeevi's assassination last year.

Arafat's response, according to military sources, was adamant: If Israeli troops attempted to take the men under his protection and remove any more documents from his office, he would fight to the death.

This brought the Israel-Palestinian standoff to a critical point. Sharon could make good on his ultimatum, send the troops in to seize the terrorist chiefs at whatever cost. Or else, both sides could take a step back from the brink, letting the wanted men trickle out from the confinement of the two-room apartment, one by one. In this tense situation, Sharon decided not to lay himself open to international pressure and ordered his aides to stop putting through calls.

Arafat, for his part, made the international lines hum, pleading with world leaders to save him from great danger, without explaining that he was using his personal immunity to shelter top terrorists and send suicide bombers on the rampage in Israeli cities.

According to military sources, the Israeli prime minister is running the Ramallah operation in person because of the high stakes involved.

In the 48 hours of the Ramallah operation, military intelligence and Shin Beit operatives, who went in with Israeli forces, collected documentary proofs from Arafat's presidential suite linking the Palestinian leader in person and his most trusted lieutenants -- some with high diplomatic standing in the international community -- to some of the most horrifying terror outrages in Israeli cities, including Jerusalem. DEBKAfile can report exclusively that Israel has passed these findings to President Bush, together with the first results of the interrogation of Sahar Habash, one of Arafat's closest aides, who is the biggest fish rounded up by Israeli troops since the onset of the Ramallah operation early Friday.

Habash, an apparently gray figure, is charged with his leader's most vital confidential tasks. In January 2001, DEBKAfile first exposed his function as chief coordinator of Arafat's connections and communications with the Lebanese Hezbollah and the al-Qaida militants hiding in -- and passing through -- the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. On Feb. 17, DEBKAfile reported that Sahar Habash was involved in setting up the visit to the Gaza Strip of the al-Qaida shoe-bomber, Richard Reid, in July 2001, six months before he attempted to blow up a Paris-Miami American Airliners flight. Habash was instrumental in obtaining explosives for Reid's operation, passing them to him through the Gazan Hamas activist, Nabil Aqal.

Sharon is anxious to lay hands not only on Zeevi's killers, but also on the men and documents that will demonstrate to the U.S. president beyond doubt the degree of Arafat's complicity and that of his close followers in crimes of terror -- not only in Israel, but also their interaction with international terrorists""

The Bush establishment knows exactly what's going on despite posturing for the benefit of the press and the UN. Cheney read the riot act. The US is pulling out of Saudi which sends billions to the radical Islamic schools to appease their masses while their leaders swan around with Harems in London. I live in South Africa the large Moslem community here treat it as common knowledge and basic unarguable fact that the US is a global aggressor and victimizes both poor and Islamic nations and forces peace loving followers to at least resist or even better retaliate against a global anti Allah power – the US.

A US Christian lady who discovered her Jewish roots issues a convenient daily summary sent on email. To subscribe visit

Alternatively Worldnet daily will give you the conservative viewpoint. Also Konigs site is useful roundup
– there are more conservative sites but I have just stuck to these to give more balanced view than in the myopic media.

This coming war on global terror fanatics is going to probably make the cold war, which we have lived most of lives our under, look like the good old days. Gentlemen controlled the nuclear triggers while the CIA and KGB played cat and mouse with one another. You think the US wants to attack Iraq just because they are bully boys or because they know what a nuclear device will do in the hands of these fanatics who would blow away a city in the same way we would exterminate a vermin rat.

Your government does not want to unduly alarm your people and keep your bubble economy going but make no mistake they know exactly what they are dealing with – US friends of mine who toured ground zero with the FBI do as well.

"The Palestinians are so blinded by their narcissistic rage that they have lost sight of the basic truth civilization is built on: the sacredness of every human life, starting with your own. If America, the only reality check left, doesn't use every ounce of energy to halt this madness and call it by its real name, then it will spread. The Devil is dancing in the Middle East, and he's dancing our way.

© The New York Times, March 31, 2002"

Belgian@ Waverider#724764/1/02; 13:14:02

Indeed, Saddam pushes for the POO weapon. He invaded Kuwait for the simple reason that other ME oilstates (SA) didn't want to follow him in his demand for a POO of 21$/barril !
Saddam is an oil hawk.
Israel doesn't want UN troops as neutral buffer. As long as the US keeps supporting their vision of a final deportation(exodus) of all Palestines to neighbouring Arabic states (Jordan/Egypt). As you suggest, there is that escalation strategy à la Kissinger and Co. The Palestines are the actors/victims of the Arabian agenda. Needles to repeat the sadness of all the atrocities that go with this.

Isn't it remarkable that *no-one* dares to mention the POO as the economical fundamental behind all this suffering and manoeuvering. POO is always mentioned as a side-effect and never as the main cause ! The reasons for this are divergent. The globe's polarizations would change dramatically. Crude Oil would be seen as a tool of superiority and consequently, generate less sympathy for the Arab suppression/domination. Euroland doesn't mention
the oil fundamental for a variety of reasons (Tax-revenues).
And the US has a global strategy for dominating cheap oil(ME + Caspian).

Israel has no oil and must stay under the US (economical/political) umbrella. All the 50 year old problems could be solved at once if this globe could agree on a fair price of oil wich serves the widiest of interested parties. But such a positive action is not even considered by the other-globalists.

That's why the theories (gold/euro/oil/dollar-concept) of TG are so positively interesting (to me) !

mikal@Chrusos#724774/1/02; 13:16:44

Your "hard facts" are the brainwashed delusions of an egocentric American sycophant, resigned to share the fate of his barbaric mentors. Can you find some better sources to quote than declared socialists, Zionists, and controlled media! At the same time, you attempt to assassinate Black Blades character, all with more abstractions and distortions than Chairman Greenspan, without any civility.
Black BladeRe: Chrusos – Middle East#724784/1/02; 13:23:04

Come now, they are all terrorists. That is why we will never see peace in the Middle East. Isn't it quite odd that if one murders a million with an organized army he's a conqueror, whereas if he kills a few with some disorganized individuals he's a terrorist? The situation is more complex than that. One-sided? Hmmm… I would think that both sides are equally at fault here. I also personally think that we in the west should profit from the situation and sell weapons to all sides and let them go at it. Perhaps full-scale annihilation of one side over the other (it doesn't matter who) is needed to finish this nonsense once and for all.

Israel is a nation born out of terrorism. After, even Ariel Sharon was a member of the Irgun, a terrorist organization that murdered British citizens among others. He also gave orders for the attack on the USS Liberty where helpless unarmed US sailors were machine-gunned down in lifeboats (I thought that was rather cold-blooded myself). He also gave the order to slaughter men, women, and children in UN refugee camps in Southern Lebanon. Sorry, but I don't see any real difference between either side. Arafat, Sharon, Bin Laden, Netanyahu, Saddam Hussein, etc. – They are all terrorists.

Aside form that, I would not call DEBKA anything but an Israeli tabloid. They have never been reliable as a news source. I thought it strange that they claimed that the Mainland Chinese army invaded Afghanistan and captured 18 US military personnel. Credibility is certainly a problem for DEBKA.

On the positive side, we should see the POG and POO rise and break loose from market manipulators as this situation in the ME deteriorates. As I see it, there is nothing wrong with anyone profiting from the Israeli-Arab folly in the ME.

- Black Blade

Black under investigation by Justice Department#7247904/01/02; 14:18:54

http:// This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. /bush%20speaks%20under%20investigation%20by%20united%20states%20justice%20department.html


United States Attorney General John Ashroft disagrees, "The owner of this web site is a foreign national who had permission to be in this country as long as he upheld our laws and system of government. His web site was unpatriotic, offensive and it not only undermines the military goals of our great country, it puts our military at risk. As far as I'm concerned, he gave up any rights he may have had under the law. We're looking into what charges we may bring against him."

Black Blade: April Fools Day joke or just another erosion of the Bill of Rights? Safer not to criticize or speak up. Best to keep quiet and watch as they come and send off the neighbors to the "camps". We really do live in "Interesting Times" Hmmm…

Old YellerPoint/counter -point at MS#7248004/01/02; 14:21:32

Always a dissenting opinion,especially when the subject of unsustainable US debt loads come up.Personally,I favor Roach's opinion as it seems much more logical.

One can never discount the trickery the Fed may have in store though.

On with the show.

Old YellerBolstering Roach's case#7248104/01/02; 14:25:09

One little graph says it quite nicely.
GuidedPrecious Metals and Terror#7248204/01/02; 14:28:35

Come on. Let's at least respect the integriy of MK's forum. If not the feelings of others on some off topic subjects. Kindly leave this Israel, Arab thing alone aside from gathering and reporting the facts related to PM's as some here do so well. I doubt that few if any here have any real understanding of that.
I could name an act that I consider terror at it's worst conducted on millions of innocents right here in the USA. And, all American taxpayers have had a part in funding it, like it or not.
In the end, we are each responsible for the acts we do. Let's stay on the subject.

Black BladeMiddle East Conflict#7248304/01/02; 14:47:22

The Middle East conflict is the most serious event of late that has put pressure on the worlds markets. This has had an effect on both the price of Oil and Gold. The Middle East question is not something that should be avoided because someone might have his/her "feelings" hurt. To bury ones head in the sand is to ignore one of the most serious events that will drive energy prices higher and Gold out of the manipulators hands. As the conflict escalates it will drive the price of Oil and Gold as it threatens to spread throughout a region that is vital to the economic survival of every nation on earth.

- Black Blade

ChrusosMid East Mess#7248404/01/02; 14:57:03

Hey mikal

Your post tells me a lot about yourself. Firstly you threaten a fate for me suitable for that of my barbaric mentors – I presume this refers to the US which though flawed has much I admire.

I never "assassinated" (Freudian slip?) BB's character at all. I said his posts were extremely valuable but the one was one-sided on the complex Israeli Palestinian issue.

I can also back up all the other facts I stated. I have also seen shocking videos of the Israeli troops breaking the arms of Palestinian stone throwers.

They are hard facts and not Greenspan abstractions but who wants untidy facts in an emotional issue that is going to split the world into 2 camps. Like Mugabe we don't need to pay any attention to facts. We can call famine - plenty and oppression - freedom and murderous deceived suicide bombers - holy martyrs beloved of Allah and give out sweets and celebrate with the parents when one of our teenage children blows herself up in a restaurant

I am not entering into any further debate, as this is a gold site.


Thank you for your post. I have tried to study the recent history of the Jewish Palestinian issue, which goes back to Ishmael and Isaac. War is barbaric full of atrocities the US civil war or the second WW, where whole cities were bombed by both sides.

I haven't studied the Liberty issue but will do so. Of course as I recall there is also the Jewish refugee ship that was turned away from US ports consigning the Jews aboard who were fleeing from the holocaust to certain death. I am not going into the Lebanese camp issue, which as you are well informed, know is not as simple as you make out.

Debka are no more infallible than any other news source whatever its sympathies – I read many to try and get a picture of what is actually happening.

Yes this whole deadly mess is likely to be positive for the POG and that is something to rejoice about. I've said my piece and I'm sticking to the gold war from now on, on USA Gold - its much more fun and the villains are more clearly identifiable! At least to goldbugs that is!!

Thanks for all the timely posts they save me a lot of time especially because you post an extract so one can see if its worthwhile to pay a visit to the URL



GuidedBlack Blade#7248504/01/02; 15:56:58

Bad choice of words on my part. Should have said opinions rather than feelings.
A CanadianMIDEAST SOLUTION#7248604/01/02; 16:31:04

The obvious answer is that ARAFAT and SHARON need to roll up a big one and burn it together.
The resulting peace accord would be bad for the price of my physical but I couldn't care less cause it aint for sale.

Cavan Man@Pippin#7248704/01/02; 17:52:06

If you pay close attention, you can observe that we are devolving into an "US vs them" paradigm. People who are so frustrated economically, socially and politically that they will commit suicide before their 19th birthday are classified not only as terrorists but also religious fanatics. For them, a career as a "freedom fighter" is not an option. What is lost upon most is the fact that although Islam has always spread by the sword (I'm not an apologist for them), the core issues are large masses of people living lives of complete hopelessness who have a natural and historic affiliation with solidarity vis a vis their preferred form of divine worship who must act out their frustrations. This solidarity, when targeted by unscrupulous and so-called "leaders" as means of their own empowerment and raison d'etre then becomes lethal.

I wonder what Thomas Jefferson would say; better yet, John Adams?

Mr GreshamChrusos, BB#7248804/01/02; 18:14:47

Way to do it, bro's. State it, and move on. None of us made the situation, and none of us are involved as propagandists for either side. We _are_ pro-active types, problem-solvers, so we look for causes and effects. We land on some opinions that way, and they clash with others' opinions. But we're not pointing guns at each other, thank God. A different accident of birth, and any of us might be in the same pickle. "There but for... go I." Kind of humbling, when you think about it.

You've shown respect, for each other, and for all readers whose thoughts you touch each day. Keeping this a "heads up", problem-sniffing-out, and possibly -solving, place. Thanks!

CanuckPondering#7248904/01/02; 18:54:29

Here's a statement that I heard a few times over the weekend which I feel is most important for the immediate and near future.

During the recent Arab Summit, the Arab nations declared that "an attack of Iraq would be construed as an attack to all Arabs."

As an aside I believe I heard that all journalists in Israel were moved out of 'harms way' ie: no commentary of Arafat's condition. What have we heard of his condition today?. Is Arafat a dead man?

Connecting the dots of paragraph 1 and 3 might lead one to believe that any foul conclusion (re: Arafat) will immediately cause a 'clear and present danger' of horrific


On a different note, there is a 'pure-play' non-hedger on the TSE that I watch very closely. It is a very low cost producer that I have marked as a proxy for the price of gold. There are now clear definitions in stock prices for companies that will prosper for a rising POG and others that have stalled fearing a rapidly rising POG. Be careful!!

It was up handsomely again today, as were many other gold producers. The XAU and the HUI were up smartly as well. I heard recently that the POO has a 3 or 4 dollar war premium attached, is there a war premium attached to gold at this moment, and if so, how much?


Black BladePuplava Market Wrap Up#7249004/01/02; 19:33:13

Wall Street Reacts to War


The other uncertainty for the financial markets is perhaps the most difficult one for the markets to digest, which is war itself. It appears now that the decades long standoff in the Middle East will have to be settled once again on the battlefield. Only when one side emerges as victor will the prospects for peace stand a chance. The failure over the last decade of diplomacy to bring resolution to conflict makes war the only solution. The violence that has been escalating since September of 2000 is now coming to a head. Like the last era of violence in the Middle East, it once again pits Arafat against his old nemesis, Ariel Sharon. The seriousness of the approaching war took on greater significance this weekend as Israel called for general mobilization of its reserves. The military is calling up between 20,000-30,000 troops. The fact that troops were called up during a major religious holiday gives emphasis to the serious nature of the approaching conflict.

At the same time, Washington is building up a major military presence in the Persian Gulf. U.S. forces in the region have increased significantly due to the war in Afghanistan. However, new troops and equipment are being moved into the region -- a fact that hasn't been lost on the financial markets. The fact that the U.S. and Israel are mobilizing speaks of military conflict in the days ahead. U.S. troops in the Persian Gulf have gone from 25,000 to now 80,000. In Kuwait American troops have doubled from 5,000 to 10,500 since last September. Meanwhile in Saudi Arabia, weapons and military gear are being pulled out of storage. Administration officials are quick to say the Gulf buildup is not a prelude to an invasion of Iraq. However, if they were, it wouldn't be substantiated anyway. They are obviously there for a reason -- peacekeeping isn't one of them. The force is too large for that.

In the general markets gold, silver, oil, natural gas, defense stocks were being accumulated by investors. Other areas doing well were drug, biotechs, and chip stocks. On the selling side were airline stocks which fell as the price of oil rose to within a hair of $27 a barrel. Crude futures soared above $27 a barrel with another suicide bombing in Jerusalem. Saddam Hussein also issued a plea to the Arab world to use the oil weapon against the U.S. as they did in the Yom Kippur War back in 1973. Volume levels came in at an anemic 1.04 billion on the NYSE and at 1.55 billion on the Nasdaq. Market breath was negative by 17-14 on the NYSE and by 20-16 on the Nasdaq.

Black Blade: Perhaps this snippit from Puplava gets my point across much better. Unfortunately I agree that war is the only possible outcome. These two enemies have been at war since the two sons of Abraham have disputed their birthright. This family squabble will never be settled short of annihilation of one side or the other. That is nature – in fact we have a name for this – it's called "natural selection". The real uncertainty is how far this current "squabble" will spread through the region. The implications for petroleum and precious metals is obvious.

Black BladePro forma earnings falling out of favor#7249104/01/02; 19:45:33


With corporate America desperate to avoid even a hint of financial wrongdoing after Enron's collapse, an accounting tool long used to pump up earnings reports is quietly falling out of favor.

Pro forma results, which exclude one-time expenses from a company's earnings, are being subtly de-emphasized by some of the firms that relied on them in the past. Some of these newly scrubbed earnings will likely be on display in the coming weeks as Wall Street gears up for its next round of quarterly earnings reports.

Merrill Lynch recently told its stock analysts not to rely too heavily on pro forma when rating companies even though Wall Street typically bases its predictions for a firm's performance on the numbers. The moves come as analysts and investors submit corporate earnings to greater scrutiny, punishing companies whose reports even suggest unusual accounting.

Black Blade: The only purpose of Pro Forma accounting is to deceive and confuse investors. Once investors realize that the Emperor wears no clothes, then they will severely punish any corporation that uses Pro Forma accounting as having suspect earnings (ala Enron and Global Crossing).

Black BladePrice of gold set to soar#7249204/01/02; 19:51:02


GOLD prices are about to surge as the world's central bankers prepare to renew a 'ceasefire' on sales of their own bullion reserves. The present deal, agreed in Washington in September 1999, expires in 2004, but talks behind the scenes suggest it will be extended, or even made permanent.

Black Blade: Already presented here before but from a different source. Word is getting around.

Black BladeTime To Buy Japanese Stocks Or Gold?#7249304/01/02; 19:57:49


Yes, but what about the exchange-rate currency risk? If Japan does expand its money supply, doesn't that mean--all other things being equal--that the yen will depreciate? Dessauer says nothing in this context about exchange rates--it's a blind spot for this investment letter.

But Harry Schultz of the International Harry Schultz Letter is acutely aware of yen risk and the gold buying it's provoking among the sorely-tried Japanese public. This famous 1970s gold bug, who baled out after its historic 1980 price spike, is once again bullish on gold: "In due course the Japanese people will own over 70% of the world's gold! Wrap your mind around the implications of that!"

Black Blade: The Japanese could buy all the available Gold bullion several times over. It is certainly something to think over though. As Harry Schultz says: "In due course the Japanese people will own over 70% of the world's gold! Wrap your mind around the implications of that!"

Black BladeInvestors with mettle turn to gold#7249404/01/02; 20:06:10,1299,DRMN_4_1056758,00.html

'Hard assets' were winners in 1st quarter


Precious metals, natural resources, real estate and emerging markets were the mutual fund winners of the first quarter, while the already battered communications funds fell hard, fund trackers said Thursday. "Gold, natural resources and real estate -- those are the hard assets that investors flock toward in times of uncertainty," said Jeff Tjornehoj, research analyst in Denver for Lipper Inc.

Black Blade: There are more and more positive pronouncements for gold in the investing community. Today, even Merrill Lynch raised their positive outlook for Gold and the Gold mining sector. Current world events appear to have helped the POG rise and hold onto recent gains.

YGMCurrency,Politics & Gold....#7249504/01/02; 20:40:22

GoldenBar aricle..."Excellent read".....YGM.
YGMSnippet..#7249604/01/02; 21:00:49

From Another Gold Site...

...Which I'll not link for obvious reasons...(They sell Au)
"Technically, gold has established a new range with the break above $302. A test of resistance at $308 could be the next stop, with some technicians looking for $330. Support is now found between $300 and $298, and below that $292."
Gotta love those 'Short Sighted' technicians whether it be price wise or time wise....After years of mining/waiting/watching and even fighting (thru GATA) this Goldbug believes our time "IS" now finally at hand....YGM.

"Go Physical" & "Sleep Well"

HoratioMid East#7249704/01/02; 21:30:36


A Letter to Kofi Annan,United Nations

It is quite evident that both sides in the mid-east conflict have chosen the most hostile people for leadership ,both are terrorists or former terrorists.
Its time for UN to do something with its troops.The Mid -East conflict can be solved simply by using UN troops to arrest Ariel Sharon and Yassar Arafat. Send them to the Hague for trial as War criminals when they should receive ten year sentences for their crimes against humanity.
Then each side can choose their second worst leaders who will probably suffer the same fate, as revenge dies hard. This should continue on down the line to their third worst set of leaders and forth worst set ,as you can see, things are getting better .At some point a set of leadership will emerge that has in mind the fate of its predecessors and will begin to think that their predecessor was not such a bad guy ,yet he went to jail . At this point the thought of increasing hostilities will cease to be an option and peace will have been achieved . This plan will take courage ,but it affords you the opportunity make the UN achieve something no one else has been able to do and your place in history will be assured..


A Friend

Sierra MadreCavan Man: some words about a young girl who died recently...#7249804/01/02; 21:31:55

You said:

"People who are so frustrated economically, socially and politically that they will commit suicide before their 19th birthday are classified not only as terrorists but also religious fanatics."

I hope neither you nor I nor any reader, ever has to see an eighteen-year-old daughter, sister, niece or cousin destroy herself as this young girl did.

She did not die for "economic, social or political reasons"!!

She died because her home was bulldozed; her father's business destroyed and the family penniless to feed their children; subsequently, her father and her brothers killed by Israeli bullets. Her cousins brutalized, their homes razed. Her town in ruins.

This young girl was brave, very brave. Everything of value in life for her, was destroyed by the Israelis. Vengeance is perhaps something that Americans - used to watching atrocities, on T.V., that happen to OTHERS - don't understand. She wanted revenge, she wanted it so badly, she gave her life for it.

Anybody fools with the lives of MY family, the way this girl's family was fill in the dots.


YGMHoratio (04/01/02; 21:30:36MT - msg#: 72497)#7249904/01/02; 21:53:38

Sir...You have "The Best Solution" I've heard yet.....
& so simple it is!!.........YGM.

Horatio Arthur Anderson ,Cabal Controllers#7250004/01/02; 22:02:29

It appears to me that Arthur Anderson is the accounting firm for several mining companies and Enron ,who engaged in metal commodity trading.I now suspect they were involved in a Mafia like conspiricy to use dirivatives to control gold prices .Top insiders at Anderson would be in a perfect position to advise and control Dirivative trading on a World Wide scale .Such access would be necessary to do what has been done.Now with its demise ,prices seem to be rising.
None other than Paul Volker has been sent in to see to an orderly reduction in operations and maybe to cover some tracks.Hmmmmm

tedwBest performing sector#7250104/01/02; 22:09:58

Wall Street Jouranl

4/01/2002 page R3

Best Performing Industry Groups Globally in the first Qrtr

#1- Precious Metals +28.7%

GoldnSilver2002Gold holding,cabal scared and the middle east #7250204/01/02; 22:22:09

HMM Justifying suicide,cant be done.The people this girl killed never met here,never shot anyone or drove a tank.Imagine Arafat is hosting people who intend to attack innocent u.s citizens?Now everything is justified,didnt the us level afghan?So let me understand this,one terroist attack on u.s soil justifies what america does,but repeated terrorist attacks on Israel and the Jewish people must turn the other cheek,perhaps the world should take its own advice!

Well gold is holding above 300,dont think for one second the cabal would bring it back down if they could,but with very little gold left euro banks now say they will extend the wash agreement for five years or perhaps forever'so much for Bundesbank giving the cabal away.They are desperate and know the tide has turned,their supplies of physical are so low they can sell no more.This is indeed a bull run which will go on for years.A breakout is building,
along with rising oil prices,the spectre of inflation and the dow now going sideways.For a look at history go look at the charts for 1979.It starts the year well under 200.In may it begins a radical climb,almost vertical.Just 8 months later in jan 1980 it peaks at 850 per oz.Do we really believe all this bad news will just go away?Ill go on record gold will be over 1000 per oz by jan 03,after all gold wasnt supressed in 1979 and terrorsits werent blowing up whole chunks of america.The belief that life will just suddenly go back to normal now are sheer fantasy,foolishness and blatant denial of truth.When gold goes it explodes'soon the black star will reach critical mass and nothing will hold it back,not even the cabal!

Black BladeJapan's grads enter jobless market #7250304/01/02; 22:25:18


TOKYO With Japan's economic engine stuck in neutral for over a decade, the recession's invisible victims are young people starting out in a radically changed job market.
Two decades ago, about 90 percent of Akirudai graduates who wanted to work went straight into good-paying, stable, full-time jobs. This month, about half of the work-bound graduates drifted into part-time, temporary jobs with no benefits. Starting monthly salaries have fallen to $1,000 today, from $1,200 six years ago, said Tamiichi Okuyama, the school's guidance counselor.
Officially, Japan's unemployment rate is 5.3 percent. But Richard Katz, an American economist, argues that the real rate would be 8.5 percent if government statisticians counted discouraged workers, who are not currently looking for work, and part-time workers who lose their jobs. Official statistics show that young men have the nation's highest unemployment rate, 10.7 percent. "Unemployment is at least double the official figures," said Kiyoshi Sasamori, president of the Japanese Trade Union Confederation, known as Rengo.

Black Blade: This is a very "grim" sign of the times in Japan. The economy is trashed and as Japan slips beneath the waves, many Japanese fear for their savings and continue to purchase Gold bullion in a "flight to quality" away from insolvent Japanese banks. Next year at this time all savings deposits will be restricted to very low deposit insurance. The people are being set up for the "fleecing", and the lucky one will have prepared by bailing out of banks and into hard assets.

Mr GreshamI've always wondered...#7250404/01/02; 22:26:18

if someone might have a more deadly bombing planned some day, especially if the Dome of the Rock (Al Aqsa mosque) is threatened by the Temple Mount project...

"When ye therefore shall see the abomination of desolation, spoken of by Daniel the prophet, stand in the holy place, (whoso readeth, let him understand:) Then let them which be in Judaea flee into the mountains. . . . For then shall be great tribulation, such as was not since the beginning of the world to this time, no, nor ever shall be" (Matthew 24: 15, 16, 21).

"For the days shall come upon thee, that thine enemies shall cast a trench about thee, and compass thee round, and keep thee in on every side, and shall lay thee even with the ground, and thy children within thee; and they shall not leave in thee one stone upon another; because thou knewest not the time of thy visitation" (Luke 19:41-44).

"O Jerusalem, Jerusalem, thou that killest the prophets, and stonest them which are sent unto thee, how often would I have gathered thy children together, even as a hen gathereth her chickens under her wings and ye would not! Behold your house is left unto you desolate" (Matthew 23:37,38).

"And when ye shall see Jerusalem compassed with armies, then know that the desolation thereof is nigh." Luke 21:20

They have healed also the hurt of the daughter of my people slightly, saying, Peace, peace; when there is no peace. Jeremiah 6:14

For they have healed the hurt of the daughter of my people slightly, saying, Peace, peace; when there is no peace. Jeremiah 8:11

"...A Time for Peace, I swear it's not too late." "Turn, Turn, Turn" -- Bob Dylan/The Byrds

WaveriderJapan's day of reckoning put off #7250504/01/02; 22:32:53,2276,40588,00.html?

"JAPAN entered the fiscal new year yesterday with the satisfaction of having avoided a much-feared 'March crisis'.

Unfortunately, this simply means the day of reckoning has been put off, and when the day does come - as come it must - it will require actions more radical and painful for having been delayed so long.

It became obvious a month or so ago that the government was simply buying time when its package of emergency financial measures turned out to be little more than an exercise in propping up the Tokyo stock market. The aim was obviously to allow banks to hobble through to the end of fiscal 2001 without showing huge losses on their equity portfolios - and thus suffering a capital crisis.

In coming weeks, it is likely that economic data relating to Japan's exports, industrial production and private capital investment will give the appearance of recovery. But this should not fool anyone into thinking that the root problems have been solved. The day of reckoning is approaching, and will most likely arrive before fiscal 2002 closes."

Waverider: Yup...more on Japan...should bode well for Gold!

Mr GreshamBB: Eternal enemies & natural selection#7250604/01/02; 23:00:15

Just to put the question mark to a couple of your comments you've made several times.

The little bit I recall reading about Arab/Jew history had them living together in the Holy Land, and slaughtered side-by-side when the Crusaders came through. Under the Ottoman Empire, Jews lived mostly undisturbed in Moslem countries. I don't have time to read up on this now, so don't hold me to it; just off the top of the ol' cranium.

Natural selection: Weaponry changes all that. It allows some pusillanimous puke with a degree from Oxford to order strong brave men to charge into machine guns. It allows an oil sheik at home in his Geneva mansion to dial up Henry Kissinger and order up some F-16s. The mechanical extension of man's ability to mangle the bodies of others has clipped the feedback wires of natural selection and made the process into a SYSTEMIC selection; what system can harness the most violence (and human conformity/compliance) to its own self-perpetuation. (Temporary as it may be, as it burns its support platform out from under itself.)

Black BladeQwest sees goodwill charge; may face SEC action#7250704/01/02; 23:01:06


WASHINGTON, April 1 (Reuters) - Qwest Communications International Inc. (Q) warned on Monday it may take a charge up of to $30 billion due to accounting changes on goodwill, and said the Securities and Exchange Commission staff recommended action against the telephone company for excluding certain information from a January 2001 earnings report.

Black Blade: More phony baloney accounting comes under fire. I used to have Qwest shares that I acquired during the US West merger but I sold this dog. I just couldn't stand the absurd accounting and the dishonesty displayed by CEO Nacchio any longer. This company or any number of others can be the next Enron. Beware when investing and insure with Gold and Silver.

Mr GreshamAl Martin: Beating About the Bushes#7250804/01/02; 23:19:52

This guy does NOT like Republicans.

Get gold -- because you don't know WHO'S driving the bus!

Black BladeRe: Mr. Gresham#7250904/01/02; 23:26:19

You forgot the alliance of Spain's Sephardic Jewish community and the Moors. The Sephardic Jews were the Gold (money) managers for the Moors. Unfortunately they seem to have always let their petty differences get the best of them eventually. Note that there is a community of Jews who live in Iran. After several years of living together peacefully, the Jewish males were arrested and charged with treason (likely trumped up charges) and were sentenced from several years in prison to death. Eventually they were freed after legal appeals (which I find amazing as this is the revolutionary regime where the courts are ruled by the Mullahs). Granted many Israelis and Arabs would just as soon that the extremists (Jewish and Muslim) would just kill each other off so they could get on with their lives. Unfortunately these few periods of time where both sides live together in peace don't seem to last. Maybe it is time that we in the west just wash our hands of them and let the chips fall where they may. Heck, since they all claim to be God's chosen people - maybe we will get to see whose side God is on after all ;-)

As far as Natural Selection is concerned, You may be right. Therefore we just may have to even up the odds by selling weapons to all sides, and as some of my old friends are fond of saying – "let God sort em’ out".


- Black Blade

GrubstakerThank You Chrusos...excellent post..!!#7251004/01/02; 23:28:36

Chrusos (4/1/02; 12:50:30MT - msg#: 72475)
Mid East Terror War - some of the hard facts
I refer to Black Blade (04/01/02; 00:02:30MT - msg#: 72455)

It seems the self-appointed "expert" posters don't appreciate a reality check..
I encourage you to continue ...the balance is appreciated and most welcome...
Regards and well wishes to you and yours,

Carl HCabal's Next Move#7251104/01/02; 23:33:30

I just received an investment newsletter touting a new gold mine just discovered in South Africa. It supposedly huge, high grade and, is strip mineable (only 60ft deep). The claim is that it could double world gold production.

Sound like a tactic to try to drive down the price of gold and the price of gold mining shares so that the gold shorts can try to get out cheap.

This smells even worse that Buba, Putin, and all the other stunts they have tried.

The cabal is desparate. I can hardly wait to have a JPMC Bankruptcy party!

Mr GreshamSieg Heil, y'all#7251204/02/02; 00:00:53

{Black Blade: I _knew_ you'd have some historic tidbits to make the discussion interesting -- always worth poking things a bit...}

"Imperial State Power in America

"Now even US postage stamps will project the supremacy of American Imperial Power into the world. The new 57-cent stamp shows an eagle, which is an exact copy of the symbol of the Waffen SS, which in turn was taken from the Imperial Praetorian eagle of Ancient Rome. This is one of the first in a new series of postage stamps being released by the US Post Office to commemorate the New Age of State Power."

A stamp using the Waffen SS design. Don't that beat all? What WILL they think of next? Real crosses with real occupants for NEXT Easter?

I confirmed this wasn't just bizarre April 1 humor (on the part of Al, or the Post Office);
the stamp is shown at

G: Well, I'm shocked! Shocked to find there's Fascism going on around here! Corporal! Round up the usual suspects!

Waiter! The von Stauffenbergs look good today. But I'll have a Rommel omelette, and a side of Guderians to go. (Those WERE the Good Germans.) But, ah, can you hold the Heydrichs...and you DO trim off the Sepp Dietrichs before cooking it, don't you? ("I rode a tank...")

Tired of those stale old Boy Scout uniforms? Imagine YOUR son, glowing radiantly in his new USA Jugend uniform!

"It can't happen here" sang Frank Zappa, satirically, echoing Sinclair Lewis' book title. "Whooo-oooo could imagine...?"

--Haven't we seen this movie before, dear?
-- Yes, but I didn't realize it until it was half way through...
--oh, let's just finish it! I've sort of forgotten the ending...

"And here I sit so patiently,
waiting to find out what price
you have to pay to get out of
going through all these things twice."

----Bob Dylan, Memphis Blues

BelgianCrude Oil !#725134/2/02; 00:34:17

Important : Kuwait rushes to denounce Iraq's hard line on the POO as a weapon ! The force of "divide and rule" axiom seems still actively in place concerning Kuwait's alliance, but no so for Saudi Arabia.

A stagnant (or declining) economy + war-premiums + a prolonged period of higher POO = GDP getting more and more out of proportion with the debtberg. Only solution (as usual) = PRINT MORE DOLLARS !! These re-enforced dollar-printing demands stronger counter measures as : 1/ increased dollar hedging and 2/ more POG control !
Hedging the dollar on the gold-paper-contract-market (LBMA + outside) is done to protect/ensure the gaining intrinsic weakness of this confetti ! That same old mechanism ad nauseum. More and more dollars need to be insured/protected with less and less Physical Gold available into an atmosphere of increasing Physical Gold demand !!!

The "SPECULATIVE" war-premium on Oil can come and go and therefore less relevant. It is the consensus amongst the Arabian cartel that is much more impacting. WAT is the newest flag (name of the game) for creating divergences amongst the different cheap oil producers ! WAT is the ideal creator of violent emotions amongst leaders and people. This symphony is written and orchestrated by very silent rulers. They have this ridiculous New World Order, nightmare, night after night !

SpartacusFed Funds#725144/2/02; 01:05:22

Fed Funds is up 0,44 to 2,06%.
Black BladeENERGY CRISIS 2002-2003#725154/2/02; 02:28:29


Energy Crisis

Energy is in chronic short supply. With energy demand rising in spite of the economic recession, energy prices over the next 12 – 18 months are certain to go a lot higher. Considering current world events and the Global Recession this may be hard for some to believe. I would not be surprised to see NY light sweet crude eclipse the $35.00/bbl price and natural gas prices greater than $8.00 Mbtu and possibly nearing last year's $10.00 Mbtu. There are many reasons why energy prices will continue rising much higher.

Oil Production

Both the Department of Energy and the International Energy Agency project that demand for oil will grow from today's 76 million bbl/day to about 120 million bbl/day in the next 20 years. Actually that is a very conservative projection. However, that oil demand will not be met. The Global Hubbert Peak for oil is likely to be reached in the next 4 to 8 years after which Global oil production begins to decline. In fact the west will be even more dependent on the Middle East for oil as western sources are already in various rates of decline. The US Hubbert Peak for oil production was reached about 30 years ago.

Even so, Middle East oil supply is not only in doubt due to unstable politics and war, but rather these fields may be nearing peak production as well (including Saudis vast fields - some over 100 years old). Saudi has actually asked foreign companies to help develop additional oil and gas production. This will probably result in marginal gains in reserves, if at all.

The former Soviet Union will be of no help either. This is in spite of nearly 20% growth in domestic energy production since 1980. The only reason that the former republics are able to export any oil at all is because there is a severe recession at home that has resulted in a drop of about 10% in demand while while marginally increasing reserves.

Also more recent exploration of Caspian Sea oil has been disappointing. Poor results from Chevron's concessions suggest that exploration activity may be severely curtailed and they are not alone. An economic recovery in the former Soviet Republics will make it an unlikely source of oil exports.

Natural Gas Production

In 2001 natural gas prices reached record highs of about $10.00 Mbtu. There was record drilling activity that resulted in a pathetic net gain of 2% natural gas supply. The recent reduction in natural gas prices result from the US economic recession and in a reduction of drill rig activity and declining production. As the excess supply is drawn off from storage (at a record withdrawal rate more than double last years withdrawal rate), the typical drilling season passes by. We could see severe shortages of natural gas by this fall or winter.

Industry estimates are that natural gas production will fall more than 3% this year. Add to that increasing demand and sharply increased decline rates (up to 29%) we are looking at a repeat of last years "energy crisis" that pushed the US economy into the current recession.

Other Energy Sources

Hydroelectric power generation is likely to fall short this year. The Pacific Northwest is still in recovery from last year's drought. Recent precipitation may alleviate some early energy demand, however, come this summer and fall it may be difficult for Californians once again as Pacific Northwest hydroelectric power is crucial to the states energy needs. The East Coast is in the midst of one of the most severe droughts on record. There are already water restrictions in force in many regions. This will likely continue for several more months. The result is that there will be ever more reliance on fast depleting natural gas supply.

Nuclear power production may be restricted over the next several months as recent discoveries of boric acid corrosion has prompted the NRC to require all nuclear facilities (of the Three Mile design) to undergo inspection and repair. This may take anywhere from 90 days to 2 years depending on the possible damage. There are 69 facilities of this design. If only a handful of reactors are shutdown for repairs this will require a substantial additional draw on natural gas supply.

Coal-fired power generation may be a problem this year as well. Calpine Energy for example depends on purchases of "carbon credits" to operate additional power. This year that will not happen. They are not alone, as "carbon credits" are in short supply. When Calpine made the announcement their share prices dropped sharply. There is also pending environmental legislation that will restrict some coal-fired power generation.

Economic Recover Is In Doubt

The limited energy supply and possible foreign oil supply disruptions all most guarantee that there will be no economic recovery this year. Energy costs drop straight to the the corporate "bottom line". An economic recovery depends on "Cheap Energy" and there will be no "Cheap Energy" this year. With higher oil prices, we will likely see duel-fuel power facilities switch to cheaper natural gas. However, with the higher price hydrocarbon fuels and all other sources of energy priced much higher, we will see corporate "bottom lines" severely tested. In short – scratch one economic recovery.

Gold and Silver Portfolio Insurance

As the US economy crashes, Gold and Silver prices will surge higher as investors seek a safe haven in a "flight to quality". This is where the insurance portion of ones portfolio comes into play. As a counter-cyclical hard asset, Gold and Silver prices will rise against falling equities prices. There will be some (actually very few) stocks that will do well, however, as hard assets Gold and Silver are the ultimate hedge against a falling stock market and a possible currency crisis. Of course it is a sure bet that the Fed will increase liquidity to unbelievable levels to fight the deteriorating economy resulting in sharply rising inflation. And we know how these events will play on Gold and Silver.

- Black Blade

YGM'Here's the Future Energy Crisis'#725164/2/02; 04:16:36

Maybe we could Gold Plate Lead Hats. Truly thought provoking
pile of info here. More than most 'can' or "would want" to fathom....YGM


Tuesday April 2, 1:17 PM
Iran would 'consider' using oil as weapon against US over Israel

Iran would consider using oil as a weapon to force the United States to pressure Israel into withdrawing from Palestinian territory, Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi said.

Responding at a news conference to a proposal floated by Iraq Monday, Kharazi said the use of Arab oil to turn the screws on the US and Israel would depend on a collective decision by Islamic countries.

"If they decide to use oil as a weapon certainly Iran will consider it. It will be effective if all Muslim countries would take such a decision," he said on the sidelines of an Organisation of the Islamic Conference meeting on terrorism.

Iraq's ruling Baath party on Monday called on Arab countries to use their oil power against Israel and the United States to ensure the liberation of Palestinian land.

"Use oil as a weapon in the battle ... otherwise it will become a burden which will lead to (more) humiliation," the party's national command said in a statement.

Arab oil producers, who account for half of world supplies, have not used the oil card since the 1973 crisis, despite repeated calls by Iraq and others to do so.

The statement branded the United States "an enemy and a partner of Zionism," and alleged that the Israeli military offensive in the Palestinian territories "was mounted in joint agreement with the American administration."

Washington dismissed Baghdad's call as "random musings".

Deputy State Department spokesman Philip Reeker said the idea was not being taken seriously in the Arab world.

"I just don't have anything on random musings from the Iraqi regime," Reeker told reporters when asked about Iraq's call. "I don't think the Arab world takes that seriously," he added.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri, who is also attending the OIC conference here, told reporters: "It is up to the Arab oil producing countries.

"But in general terms the Arab world has the right to coordinate their policies and efforts to stand by their brothers to defend themselves.

"The Israeli threat is not only designed against the Palestinian people but against the whole Arab world."

The Minister of Justice and Human Rights of Southeast Asian oil producer Indonesia, Yusril Ihza Mahendra, said however he believed it was "quite impossible" to use oil as a weapon.

"It is quite difficult now. Oil is not so easy to be used as a weapon," the representative of the world's most populous Muslim nation told reporters.

"A lot of other countries like South America and China are also producing oil as well as other countries outside OPEC.

"Competition among these countries is quite high. Also it is not easy to reach consensus in OPEC about oil prices. What more the use of oil as a weapon? I think it is quite impossible."

LeSinMr Bush & USA Gov - How Many War Fronts Do You Desire?#725184/2/02; 05:48:09

China assembles missiles near coast facing Taiwan
By Bill Gertz

China's military is deploying more short-range ballistic missiles near the coast opposite Taiwan, as tensions in the region are increasing over growing U.S. support for the island.
U.S. intelligence agencies tracked a shipment of some 20 CSS-7 short-range missiles to a missile base near the town of Yongan in Fujian province.
The missiles were delivered in the past two weeks and were identified by U.S. military intelligence, the officials said.
The shipment is part of a continuing Chinese missile buildup that has raised questions among senior defense officials about Beijing's announced commitment to seeking a peaceful resolution of its dispute with Taiwan.
Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said in an interview with The Washington Times in August that the buildup of missiles near Taiwan has been steady and is destablizing.
Mr. Wolfowitz said the deployments are counter to China's announced policy of seeking a peaceful resolution of its dispute with Taiwan. "I don't see that building up your missiles is part of a fundamental policy of peaceful resolution," he said.
U.S. intelligence agencies now estimate that China has between 350 and 400 missiles deployed at several bases within firing range of Taiwan.
The missiles are considered destabilizing because their flight time is so short — they can reach their targets within minutes — and there is no defense.
Last year, the Bush administration deferred a decision on whether to sell advanced Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers to Taiwan in the hope that Beijing could be persuded to halt the missile buildup against Taiwan.
U.S. officials have said the new CSS-7s may lead to sales of the Aegis equipped warships to Taiwan.
China's government last month denied a U.S. warship access to Hong Kong after the Bush administration permitted Taiwan's defense minister to visit the United States to attend a defense conference in Florida.
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said "The U.S. side has done a series of things that interfere with China's internal affairs and undermine China-U.S. relations."
China's government also was angered by disclosure of a secret U.S. nuclear policy review that said nuclear weapons could be used against China if a conflict over Taiwan broke out.
Chinese press reports have indicated that Beijing's leaders may cancel the visit to the United States this month of Hu Jintao, the vice president who is viewed as the leading candidate to succeed current President Jiang Zemin in the coming months.
Asked about Mr. Hu's visit, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman would not answer directly but said: "Smooth and healthy development of China-U.S. relations will not be possible without proper handling of the Taiwan question by the U.S. side."
The Pentagon took steps to update its war plans to defend Taiwan last year after President Bush announced the United States would do "whatever it takes" to defend the island from mainland attack.
Chinese missile deployments opposite Taiwan have been continuing at a rate of at least 50 new missiles per year, defense officials have said. Additionally, the Chinese are believed to be increasing the accuracy of the short-range missile force, the officials said.
Last year, missile activities near Taiwan were detected in March, May and August. The missile developments were first reported by The Washington Times.
CIA Director George J. Tenet told Congress last month that China is continuing to "upgrade and expand the conventional short-range ballistic missile force it has arrayed against Taiwan."
Adm. Dennis Blair, outgoing commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, told the House Armed Services Committee that China could do "great damage" to Taiwan with its missiles.
"Where we are right now is that China is capable of causing a great deal of damage to Taiwan, damage that cannot be stopped by the Taiwanese armed forces or by forces of the United States, if they were ordered in," Adm. Blair said.
"And this is because of China's buildup of short-range ballistic missiles, which there are only small numbers of Patriots that can intercept. However, China is not now capable of taking and holding Taiwan and satisfying that goal of China."
Military stability "will depend on not only what China does, but what Taiwan does and what the United States does," Adm. Blair said.

ChristianShort Gold Banking#725194/2/02; 05:57:59

Banks- Central Banks have, are selling Gold Calls, naked Calls, Puts, Naked Puts to maintain a gold price that is range bound. In this way holders of Calls, Puts expire worthless in order to produce income on a non producing asset called gold. This can be done with any commodity traded. The idea is to make a (1st) profit and (2nd) to control the public's inflation expectations by keeping commodities (gold) prices flat. For years now the Federal Reserve has and presently is monetizing the national debt by buying Treasury Bonds they are unable to sell without driving up interest rates. The FED banks simply buy this paper by establishing a gold short position to act as an book-keeping position. Many bond fund managers warn of the dangers inherent in an over-leveraged U.S. balance sheet. Presently the fiat Federal Debt is increasint at a rate of $0.72 per person, while the gold short debt position is increasing at a rate of $15.00 per person per day. What killed the Argentinian Banks is their gold short positions, same is true in Japan and the same is going to happen here. All this debt will make the indebted property worthless because people will simply be forced to walk away from their property that is indebted more then what it is worth. For those who still think they have equity in their property the debt becomes a burden just to make the monthly mortgage payment. then there is still the good old property tax payment, insurance and upkeep. We live in an economic concentration camp.
LeSinGeo/Political Wars, Oil, Currency Wars, Gold, Terror - All So Very Handy#725204/2/02; 05:58:38

What relief for the A.Anderson's of the USA financial system. The media & news focas away from the over valued and hyped USA stock market, together with its' 'proforma' and fruadulent accounting practices provides some respite
for the sick system.

All we need now is for MicroSoft, IBM, GE, Ford & GM to come clean and it is 'game-over'.

Cheers "S"

LeSinUS$ Value Questioned -- GOLD GET YOU SOME - QUICKLY DO NOT DELAY#725214/2/02; 06:16:42

Buy Dollars to Flee Crisis? Maybe NOT!
April 02, 2002 04:12:00 AM ET

By Anchalee Worrachate

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The raging conflict in the Middle East is creating a dilemma in foreign exchange markets over whether the U.S. dollar is the safest harbor for investors worried about the potential economic impact of the crisis.

On Monday, as Israeli tanks rolled into Palestinian-ruled areas of the West Bank, investors were quick to jump out of the U.S. dollar, the traditional port of first call in times of conflict or economic stress, into the Swiss franc, an alternative safe haven.

The U.S. currency clawed back ground on Tuesday as a dithering market decided rising oil prices would probably hurt huge oil importers such as Japan and the euro zone, where the European Central Bank's inflexible inflation target leaves it exposed to any short-term energy-related surge in prices.

Analysts said the most pressing question being asked in the market was whether the Middle East violence was likely to escalate to the point that it could derail a U.S. economic recovery.

``It depends on how the U.S. is drawn into the conflict. If it's plain vanilla Middle East tension, then you can expect people to buy the dollar, buy oil, sell Hong Kong forwards and the yen, for example,'' said Claudio Piron, the head of currency strategy at Standard Chartered in Singapore.

``If the U.S. involvement in the conflict becomes deeper and the situation gets messy, it's likely people will diversify and get out of the dollar. The problem will raise questions about the sustainability of its huge current account deficit.''

The staggering size of the U.S. current account deficit -- more than $400 billion -- means the U.S. needs to attract more than $1 billion a day to fund its capital shortfall and maintain the stability of its currency.

So far, the United States has had no difficulty meeting the challenge even when it faced recession, thanks to its robust equity and bond markets.

``This is not an issue anyone will raise during the good times. But be careful, once a pin drops, there could be a stampede,'' said a senior forex dealer at an Asian bank in Singapore.

``That said, I still think the dollar should continue to be in favor despite the Middle East conflict because there are lots of positive things being loaded up into the pipeline that will cause a strong rebound in the U.S. economy.''

Moreover, some analysts believe calls from some Arab nations to use oil as a weapon against the West would be hard to carry out because of their fragile economies.

The world's biggest oil exporter Saudi Arabia, for example, has been running a current account deficit for the last 17 years and has barely enough oil revenues to meet immediate budgetary needs.

But other analysts cautioned that a ''when-in-doubt-buy-the-dollar'' mentality might not be the best option at this point.

``The degree of risk and uncertainty in the Middle East is higher now than it had been previously,'' said Clifford Bennett, senior currency strategist at BNP Paribas in Singapore. He recently made a call to buy the Swiss franc, which is up one percent against the dollar since last Thursday.

``Over the weekend, Iraq and Kuwait becomes friends again. Basically, the message to the U.S. is, 'Hands off Iraq'. What that symbolizes is the Arab world is more angry and more upset than it has ever been previously about the U.S. foreign policy on Palestine,'' he said.

Bennett said the conflict is taking place as the United States' financial market status is diminishing due to its perceived foreign policy shortcomings in the Middle East, huge current and credit account deficits, and high-profile corporate failures.

``In the late 90s, people would buy anything American because of its brand name status. Now M&A flows have fallen and portfolio flows are appearing to be more balanced between the Europe and the U.S. The current crisis could hurt sentiment toward the U.S. and that could cause people to go for the European currencies to play it safe,'' he said.

© 2002 Reuters

Black BladeGold Higher#725224/2/02; 07:20:51

Gold appears set to break through $305/oz. level - currently $304.70/oz.
Black BladeMarket Futures Lower, Gold Higher, Oil and Natural Gas Higher#725234/2/02; 07:26:41

Looks like a wild day on Wall Street. Gold and Petroleum are higher on ME concerns and investors searching for a safe haven. There are several earnings warnings and lower "guidance" warnings. AOL reports that they will write off $40 billion. Looks to get "Interesting".

- Black Blade

Black BladeGold Higher Still#725244/2/02; 07:28:40

Gold just popped through the $305/oz. resistence level. Will we see a rush to short coverin today? Maybe!
Operative3 Days & Counting#725254/2/02; 07:39:06

Looks like gold going for four days in a row with a close above 300. <Big Smile>
Black BladeCalandra of Marketwatch With "Golden Hair"?#725264/2/02; 07:43:50

Tom Calandra of CBS Marketwatch made a bet that if Gold stayed above $300.00/oz. for a minimum of 5 days in a row, he would dye his hair "Gold". Well, just a couple of more days to go.

So far no mention of the Gold rally on CNBC.Though Faber is wearin a Gold colored tie.

Mr GreshamHow does it feel to be on a "winning team"?#725274/2/02; 08:49:12

Don't die of shock when it happens; you're gonna find out soon enough.
barnacle billIsraelis fire on unarmed peace activists#725284/2/02; 09:08:42

The above subject line was the headline on page 7A in today's St. Paul Pioneer Press, St. Paul, MN.
This is the American tax dollar at work. Remember that Israel gets $3billion in U.S. taxpayer dollars every year with no strings attached.

RobotGuyBlack Blade - - - Thom Calandra#725294/2/02; 09:16:22

I sent him an e-mail mentioning that I would be looking forward to seeing him dye his hair gold, and he responded "that was back in November" he didn't really seem to be too enthusiastic to do it right now.

All I can say is that I'm a man of my word, and if I made a promise like that with no apparent 'additional' boundaries, I'd be more than happy to honour it.

Good to see spot movin'!! cheers all!!

BelgianInformative postings from...#725304/2/02; 09:38:05

Le Sin : Yep, the dollar dilemma and the war fronts !Excellent Chineze timing for reactivating the Taiwan burner.

YGM : Scalar wars!? Fascinating !

Gresham :Sharon's dictatorial ultimatum on Arafat will solve nothing and make things worse !

Thanks for the info.

YGMU.S. Default Avoidance.....#725314/2/02; 09:39:03

Borrow from Peter to pay Paul......Desperation ????

U.s. Moves To Avoid Default

Tuesday April 2, 2002 3:40 PM

WASHINGTON (AP) - The Bush administration will take steps this week to prevent a federal default, given Congress' failure to raise the government's borrowing limit.

Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, in a letter to congressional leaders Tuesday, said the government would avoid a default by temporarily shifting money in a retirement fund for civil servants into a non-interest-bearing account.

That would take tens of billions of dollars out of the calculation of the federal debt, freeing room for more borrowing. The shift will begin Thursday and end about April 18.

Eventually, the money - along with all lost interest - would be put back into interest-bearing instruments.

The affected account, the Government Securities Investment Fund, ``will receive complete restoration of all funds temporarily affected by this necessary action, including full and automatic restoration of any interest that would have been credited to the fund,'' O'Neill said in the letter. ``Beneficiaries will be the same as if this temporary action had never taken place,''

The action will be taken Thursday because it will be about that time that the government expects federal debt would otherwise reach the $5.95 trillion ceiling. O'Neill has repeatedly asked Congress to boost the ceiling by $750 billion. But with Democrats and many conservative Republicans on Capitol Hill opposed, efforts to raise the debt ceiling have foundered.

The shift of some retirement accounts was used in 1995 by President Clinton's treasury secretary, Robert Rubin, to avoid default during a budget fight with the Republican-controlled Congress.

Since the government began raising money to fight World War I in 1917, Congress has let the Treasury borrow the money it wants, as long as it stays within limits.

O'Neill, in the letter to congressional leaders, raised hopes that a deal boosting the debt ceiling would eventually be done.

``Together we must continue working to enact an increase in the statutory debt limit as quickly as possible to avoid any negative repercussions at home or abroad,'' O'Neill said.

YGMNo Wonder Arafat Declines to leave...#725324/2/02; 09:54:08

He's a one man equivalent of the Fed. Res., printing his way to prosperity! Wonder what his Swiss account holds!
Morroccan currency is probably cheaper to buy than print tho.......Got Gold?

CometoseHECLA MINING#725334/2/02; 10:29:35

This silver mining (hecla mining: hl)company is up dramatically in the last two trading sessions. I can't find a site to log its competitors on one graph together to measure what may be happening industry wide. Anyone else looking at this? Please confirm if a trend is occuring. Hope this is showing the way for the metal.......the word squeeze comes to mind....
PippinCometose - chart comparison#725344/2/02; 11:07:05

See URL above.
USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Hard assets... Easy access!#725354/2/02; 11:09:11

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Please Remember: It is your purchase from USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals that nourishes these pages.

PizzComatose#725364/2/02; 11:44:03

Regarding Hecla - they mine gold too.

On Friday they announced they hit gold at depth at their La Camorra mine in Venezuela. Yesterday they announced the acquisition of a major lease for gold property also in Venezuela.

My broker has a volume alert on it right now, big blocks are being bought.

There was some speculation on another board yesterday that they may be a take over candidate - though I hope not.

Due your own due dilligence and not investment advice, I own a litte bit of this one.


TownCrierPippin and Cometose#725374/2/02; 11:56:44

We generally try hard to avoid the slippery slope that will rapidly turn this particularly unique gold discussion forum into little other than a stock chat room, which are already a dime a dozen elsewhere on the internet. Many here very glad to have among the vastness of the internet at least this one site free from the blitz of promotions for Wall Street's paper in one form or another -- wheter it be debt securities (bonds) of the government, banks, manufacturing, mining, or retail corporations, or else the asset securities (stocks) of banks, manufacturing, mining, or retail corporations.

But briefly, since the two of you would have us all turn our attention to the fortunes of the Hecla and Newmont corporations, every picture tells its own story, and you'd be sure to want to cosider this one (see link above) in addition to the one offered by Pippin. How much real and steadfast comfort has been offered by the paper asset class representing these corporations by holders since long ago 1988? Since 1996?

In the meanwhile, to holders anywhere in the world under a wide assortment of currency regimes, gold metal offered all of the real security unique to gold metal, a bulwark against privation that gains in power even as confidence in all others is lost.

Again, there is ample material to discuss regarding gold's part in an evolving world in which economics plays an ever increasingly important role. I don't think that we need waste time or space here in giving one particular corporation or another a leg up with free publicity or attention. There are other avenues specifically provided to acheive those ends, and anyone with vested interests toward those ends are encouraged to seek them out for such purposes. Our attention here should remain on discussion of the unique merits of gold metal ownership as part of a diversified portfolio to stand against the shifting political and economic realities of each new day. Discussion of those shifting socio-political/economic realities being also fair game for discussion as they relate to a person's contemplation for gold ownership.


Solomon WeaverRed Gold - an update on Gold in China #725384/2/02; 11:59:53

Red Gold
Slowly, the shroud of secrecy surrounding China's gold production and reserves is lifting and plans are afoot to deregulate the sector. But, as John Adams explains, there are still many steps to be taken before a free market in gold will happen

For many years the amount of gold produced annually in mainland China, its geographical source and the level held in the official reserves were mysterious state secrets, whose possession was dangerous to the holder. Much effort was devoted by Western analysts to determining exactly how much gold China had at any one point, and how much had been sold on the world markets to cover bad harvests or political upsets. China was known to be mining gold in modest but useful amounts of perhaps 50 tonnes a year, but beyond that little was known.

The food shortages which followed the disastrous Great Leap Forward in 1958 forced China to sell gold to buy grain abroad, depleting the national reserves. During the autumn of 1966, as the equally disastrous Cultural Revolution got underway, Red Guard searches in Shanghai alone are reported to have turned up some 35 tonnes of privately held gold, presumably in bullion or coin, and 450 tonnes of gold and silver jewellery. This is not surprising: China is estimated to have some 5,000 tonnes of gold in private hands, worth billions of dollars.

Despite the disruption created by the Cultural Revolution, the banking system continued to function, at least abroad, and China is reported cannily to have sold its sterling balances in 1967, prior to the devaluation of sterling, and to have bought gold at US$35 per ounce, benefiting from subsequent gold price rises also.

In 1976, at the end of the Cultural Revolution, some 81 tonnes of gold were reported to have been sold after the Tangshan earthquake and Chairman Mao's death. Similarly, there were gold swaps after the events of Tiananmen in 1989, when China's credit rating was low.

As China moves forward into the 2000s it is faced with some tough decisions as a new world trade order (another international structure not of China's designing) emerges. No longer politically isolated, and groaning under the multiple cash demands from state industries on declining state revenues, China is examining all expenditure with a cold eye.

Gold, which once served as a silent and efficient cordial to oil the wheels of trade, is no longer seen as central to its needs. Since the 1990s foreign exchange earnings from exports have soared to about US$154bn, and while the amount of gold held at reportedly 12.7m ounces has not diminished, the proportion has fallen back from perhaps 50-60 per cent to only 3 per cent of total reserves.

To get things into perspective
China currently produces some 170 or so tonnes a year of gold from a large number of small deposits in almost every province in China. This is nonetheless only as much as one large multinational such as Anglogold. Most gold originates from mines in Shandong province (about 25 per cent) though there are also useful amounts of alluvial gold in China's many rivers. The far west of China is still being explored, and the major foreign gold mining companies are convinced that there is a major strike still to be made.

The gold mines are coming under budgetary and lending constraints. Official subsidies for prospecting are being cut back, smaller mines closed down and polluting processes restricted. So long as the world price for gold remains around US$280-330 per ounce, Chinese production is likely to stagnate or falter in the medium term. Listing of mines in China or abroad, or take-overs, are possible solutions.

The mines, where they have been modernised, have used the most modern equipment available. Nonetheless, productivity levels per person remain unsatisfactory, and the general level of production even at the bigger mines may only be 5 tonnes or so. The many small-scale mines are being closed down or else starved of funds.

Foreign direct investment in gold mining has so far been disappointing. Even the gold "seniors" (the major gold companies) have found the approval process daunting (with over 40 separate steps), while the legal framework (such as on ownership and transfer of property rights) is unclear; the taxation regime does not allow for the special nature of mining investment. Dry wells may cost up to US$25m in prospecting and exploration costs which cannot be offset.

A dozen or so gold "juniors" have signed up to develop properties in China, but are constrained by the current low world gold price, and lack of bank and investor interest in funding. China has yet to attract the billion-dollar gold mines currently up and running in Indonesia.

On the structural side big changes are afoot in China. At the moment, all gold mined in China has to be sold to the People's Bank of China, which in turn onsells it to the wholesalers, manufacturers and retailers. In the recent past, the price paid by the People's Bank to the mines was well below the prevailing world price, giving a strong inducement to smuggling gold out of China. This was rectified by the authorities, and the price adjusted upwards. There it remained, while the world price plummeted, thus giving a strong incentive to smuggle gold back into China and sell it to the authorities as domestic production.

The only thing which made this system viable was the ruinous mark-up added to the price paid by the consumers of gold. The People's Bank now has the power to change the gold price without reference to the State Council, and it closely shadows the daily international price.

Towards a new system
In the first week of November 1999 the World Gold Council, in conjunction with China's National Economic Research Institute of the China Reform Foundation, the Development Research Centre of the State Council and the Financial Research Bureau of the People's Bank of China organised a forum in Beijing attended by over 120 delegates from the central bank, gold mining companies, the gold jewellery trade and various financial institutes.

The conference discussed a series of papers on the changing role of gold, but also concentrated on the reform of the Chinese gold market. In particular, the World Gold Council, the forum for gold producers worldwide, presented its paper entrusted to the National Economic Research Institute of the China Reform Foundation, on deregulating the gold market in China. The paper pointed to the special characteristics of the gold market in China, the lack of any precedent in any other market, and the difficulties inherent in the reform. The report suggests a several-staged reform of the gold market, among them:

Establishment of a gold market to replace the monopoly of the People's Bank over purchase and allocation via a gold exchange limited in membership to large producers, purchasers and brokers

Business to be limited to spot only transactions

People's Bank to begin decontrol of gold purchases with a dual-track system: this would allocate a purchase ratio to producers, who would, however, be free to decide whether to sell to the People's Bank or to the market. Any production surplus over quota to be sold on the market

Complete opening of the gold market with individuals able to buy and sell gold products for the purpose of savings and investment

Quota-based allocations to manufacturers to be abolished

Brokers to provide gold sales to small and medium-sized manufacturers

People's Bank purchases cease; all gold production sold directly on local market

Individuals free to purchase gold

Mechanisms for futures to be set in hand

Removal of the ban on gold exports and imports; direct linkage to the world gold markets. The report emphasises that this will also be conditional on complete convertibility of the renminbi

The establishment of a stabilisation fund in the interim period before China's domestic gold price is completely aligned with the international level, in order to smooth price fluctuation. The fund to be entrusted by the People's Bank to some local agency. These operations to cease on full linkage to the world market

The report also underlines the view that gold will continue to play an important part in China's national reserves as a stabilising factor in financial crises

These reforms will be difficult to implement, and carry a number of thorny problems concerning the convertibility of the renminbi, and the VAT status of gold when sold to private customers. Silver, for example, was deregulated at the start of 2000. It, too, was a metal held in the official reserves to the tune of perhaps 2,500-3,000 tonnes, but VAT is now chargeable at an assumed rate of 17 per cent, which has cast a shadow over the new market.

Gold fingers
In the meantime, gold sales to the private sector in China continue to boom. The major off-take is now in gold jewellery, which may consume 200 tonnes a year (more than total domestic mine production). The World Gold Council has identified Chinese demand for gold jewellery as one of the forces to drive world gold production in general, and has instituted marketing programmes in conjunction with local jewellers and media.

In 1998 the WGC worked with Shanghai Lao Miao Gold Company to set up a publicity campaign using a local television series "Love in Shanghai" to launch the Amour range of jewellery. Lao Miao's sales rose some 15 per cent after this campaign.

This was followed in late 1999 by a larger scale media campaign, again organised by WGC and Shanghai Lao Miao Gold, but this time launched in 18 major Chinese cities, and linked into Lao Miao's range of 24K jewellery collection, Forever, with items from the collection again worn in a 20-episode television programme.

The major target of this campaign was young women office workers, with salaries in the region of Yn2,500 per month (US$300). In 1999 Lao Miao was able to register a rise in sales of some 30 per cent. Not surprisingly, it has identified the major sales period as being the Chinese New Year (which varies according to the lunar calendar) and, less traditionally, St Valentine's day.

The main market in China is for gold of between 95.9 per cent content (959 fineness, 23 Carat) and 100 per cent (999, 24). While many items of jewellery are universal in appeal, some items are culturally specific to China: the astrological year signs of animals such as pigs and snakes, or the berobed Gods of Health, Wealth and Happiness, may have limited appeal elsewhere, though will be of interest to the large numbers of overseas Chinese.

But the big wide world moves on. The Bank of England has been directed by a reforming Chancellor to treat Britain's gold reserves as though gold was no different from frozen concentrated orange juice futures, or pork bellies in Chicago. In Beijing, resource nationalism may reign for a few years more, but Guangdong now buys its coal in Australia, and China is becoming heavily dependant on oil imports from abroad: "commoditisation", for gold as well as other products, is the new game.

PippinTownCrier#725394/2/02; 13:03:39

I stand corrected - sorry.
I really did not intend to draw the attention of anybody to a certain security - I just answered a question of somebody who needed a comparison tool. But I understand the point.

CoBra(too)Echos of my fleeting Thoughts?#725404/2/02; 14:09:42

Interesting article -calling the push for globalization for what it is. A globalization of financial markets to the detriment of the real produc(tive- or)ing countries.

A rude awakening to these facts may be in the cards. Sooner as some think. cb2

R PowellFrom Bob Pisani and CNBC#725414/2/02; 14:31:06

In his at the bell closing comments he mentioned "the concept of gold as a safe haven is making a comeback".
Maria mentioned both oil and gold as the "news of the day".
Joe Kernan mentioned the higher prices of commodities as a group as one reason why the equities were down today. Apparently he sees an inverse relationship between the two and his preference would be higher stock prices. I would agree that the CRB will go higher at the expense of money inflow in stocks in our present situation. Is/has there always been such an inverse relation? Are paper and tangible assets always at odds?
The peoples stock market television channel has been mentioning gold, silver and oil all day. Of course, stocks related to both oil and metals were also mentioned with the usual charts, graphs, whistles, bells and opinions. We are getting exposure. If Joe and Jill bubblevision viewers are going to jump in, we may see it soon. Momentum and trend following buying may also be approaching.
I believe the Japanese deposit insurance coverage reduction April 1st deadline pertains only to long term or certificate of deposit type investments. Next year it will be lowered on common bank deposits. I hope gold buying continues in Japan but I know how quickly I attend to tasks that can be put off for a year.
On the technical side, I'm watching open interest which in silver has increased from approx. 66,000 contracts to over 77,000 contracts during this latest run up which started around the $4.30 level and must exceed $4.77 to assure a higher high. Maybe tomorrow!
Gold and oil, oil and gold all the day long. Now, isn't CNBC a wonderful thing? As to why, they haven't a clue but further investment money into gold/silver will gladly and unquestioningly accept their Middle-East tensions and "flight to safe haven" as reason enough to buy.
Mikal, if silver breaks above the old 477 high, am I then allow to yell!?

RobotGuyInvestor motivation??#725424/2/02; 14:34:30

I was amused/surpirsed/dissapointed today as I watched a number of mining companies stocks trade lower even as the POG was advancing. I don't understand why individuals would be selling lower in what appears to be a bull market. Is it merely a 'follow the lemming' market, or am I missing something here?

I know, I know, physical, physical, blah blah blah. I already own physical, I just want to understand how the market is functioning, because I believe there are also gains to be made in the securities markets. Don't pretend you don't know what I'm talking about, I know there are a few of you out there who also trade stocks.

Does anyone know what would motivate an individual to sell stocks on a "commodity" while the prices are moving higher? Add to that, that these stocks were trading for more when the POG was significantly lower. Please, assist a rookie would ya? Are we losing PM momentum? Are people already becoming bored with AU now that it's crossed the 300 mark and seemingly sitting strong? I don't understand.

Old YellerMaking yen at the office#725434/2/02; 14:42:30

Why not,the BOJ seems to love it,the common folk are just getting in on the action.

Is there something wrong with that?

Pretty hard to moralize,given the destruction of the Japanese economy thanks to official debasement of the currency.

TownCrierA grand juggling act by the U.S. Treasury#725444/2/02; 14:46:27

HEADLINE: Treasury acts to avoid debt limit -- Department will tap government retirement fund as U.S. nears $5.95 trillion debt cap.

WASHINGTON (CNN/Money) Apr. 2 - ...As of Monday, U.S. government debt subject to a Congressionally set limit stood at $5.928 trillion, about $22 billion below the ceiling.
The Treasury said it will suspend investment in Treasury securities of the so-called G-Fund, one of five different funds that government employees have available in their federal savings plan, to avoid hitting the limit.
By suspending investment in the G-Fund, the Treasury will create about $40 billion in headroom for its usual debt securities. In order to tide it over until the mid-April tax flows. Treasury also said Tuesday it will sell about $46 billion in bills that will mature in mid-April to enable it to pay monthly benefits and payroll costs. Treasury usually has to sell debt in the early part of April, by far the biggest month for receipts, to make ends meet.
---(click link for full article)----

Worldwide, holders of U.S. debt securities watch this performance and they think carefully about the future and alternatives...


R PowellRobot Guy#725454/2/02; 15:02:23

Good question.
Without naming any specific companies, I believe we can say the mining company indexes like the XAU, the HUI and the TSE index are market indicators and may be mentioned in that context.
These indexes were up this morning but ended the day down. However, one day is much too short a time (unless you are a daytrader). Look at them in a much longer time frame. The XAU upmove preceeded POG by a good long time, measured in months not days. It's been advancing for over a year now and probably will continue (I hope) for many years to come accompanied by both POG and POS. Up, down, down, up but over any reasonable length of time- up!
These indexes started long before both gold or silver.
Will a definite end of this index trend announce the imminent ending of the metals' price bull? Blasphamy, you say? Hey, I'm looking ahead five or ten years. There will be a peak somewhere in both POG and POS. Anywhere north of $100/ounce for silver will suit me just fine.

TownCrierUnderstanding the industrially-driven metals#725464/2/02; 15:08:39

HEADLINE: Ford confirms PGM sales, palladium mkt steady

NEW YORK, April 2 (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co. is gradually selling palladium it no longer needs to reduce pollution from its automobiles, confirming in its latest government filing [its annual 10-K report] market suspicions that it had been reducing the precious metals inventory that cost it $1 billion when prices fell last year.

..."For our precious metals physically held, we have accordingly revised our stocking requirements and are in the process of reducing metals that are in excess of those stocking requirements (including market sales to the extent the market can absorb the metal in an orderly fashion)," Ford said in the the document.

Because of the catalyst design breakthrough, it projected that its palladium usage in 2002 will be down more than 50% from 2000.

But supplies of the metal have been very erratic in recent years ... prodded automakers and other industrial users to research cheaper and more readily available substitutes and to develop alternative technologies to meet increasingly stringent emission control laws...

To guarantee supply, Ford bought the metals aggressively in 2000 and early 2001 when palladium prices were on their way to record highs near $1,100 an ounce early last year.
But palladium prices collapsed to near $300 an ounce in late 2001 because of the global recession and frequent selling from Russia.

...Ford's annual report said it planned several actions for outstanding precious metal forward purchase contracts, including cash settling instead of taking physical delivery of the commodities.

-----(click link for full report)----

Similarities may be seen to exist through time and space, but modern circumstances are working to reveal that not all precious metals are alike for purposes of portfolio diversification and wealth preservation. Viva la difference! Call Centennial to discuss a diversification/investment strategy that is right for you.


Black BladeGold Higher – Shares Lower#725474/2/02; 15:23:58

Gold prices are higher yet the mining shares are lower. How can this happen some ask. It is quite simple as the Gold shares overshot on the upside. Now the underlying asset must work to catch up (notice that Gold is still higher). As a result speculative market players are locking in profits and others are taking some profits to lower their "cost basis" on remaining shares (I have done this myself in the past). Interesting is that the physical metal appears to be in "accumulation". I suspect that there are greater (much greater) gains in Gold yet to come.

Another reason that Gold mining shares stalled out is that many fled to Gold shares for a "flight to quality" in the face of ME tensions (actually most did so for the speculative edge). This is not a concern to those who buy physical Gold for portfolio insurance purposes. However, some are debating how long these ME tensions will last or if they will escalate. It appears that the Israeli invasion is spreading and Palestinian attacks are continuing. If the war heats up some more we will likely see both physical and mining shares resume higher.

Also, today news has revealed that Stillwater Mining (SWC), the PGM producer in Montana is under SEC investigation for how they valued reserves. I bailed out of that dog long ago as they had a knack for selling forward at the lowest possible prices. Management is utterly incompetent.

On the PGM front, Russia still is not delivering into their metal contracts. This was not unexpected of course as Russian stockpiles have been essentially depleted since 1998. Any PGM supply must come from current production. As most PGM supply is from by-product nickel production form Norilsk Nickel, I would not hold my breath waiting for delivery. Base metal production is down due to lower base metal prices (although recovering of late) and therefore PGM production will be slow. Russian exporters have stated that they are waiting for Palladium prices in the $400 to $600 range. Another wildcard is that Ford Motor Co. is selling off some excess Palladium that they acquired at much higher prices (somebody had to have lost their job over that one).

Meanwhile Oil and Natural Gas prices are much higher. Most of this is due to ME tensions, yet there is also a growing consensus that there will be petroleum supply shortages come this fall and winter. I covered much of this earlier. There are growing concerns on Wall Street that the "economic recovery" was an illusion dreamed up by analysts based on murky data and overly optimistic projections based on dubious data. The chickens are coming home to roost.

sector@RobotGuy...Wht Gold Equities Slipped at the End of the Day#725484/2/02; 15:26:18

More and more funds are buying gold equities, still not enough to push a feather though. So when these 20 somethingfund managers [Who don't know Jack about this market] get a tiny gain they sell to "lock in their profits".

Never mind that the trade will run away from them as it has, lo these many months for about 15 months now. They imagine they can ride the crests by buying the dips. Trouble is, there aren't so many real dips any more.

Hui usually bounces back the next day and even overshoots the trend sometimes.

I've been thinking that the golds may detach from pog the way internets detached [Upward] from their non-existent earnings in late 1999 and 2000. Thus the normal 3X leverage of equities to pog may swell to 6X or 10X.

The problem with all this speculation is that we are in uncharted territory for gold...uncharted due to the skewed, deformed market fundamentals caused by US Government manipulation through the sales of our treasury's gold bullion.

Looking at historical [Back to the 60's] M3 Growth rates, Don Lindley has revealed an enormous spike of late in this metric. Only bad things are ahead for the cabal and everyone else who doesn't have gold.

On a personal note, this weekend I tried to persuade my sister to sell her Vivendi stock [Her husband is a Muckety-Muck for them]. She couldn't hang up the phone fast enough. "It will come back", she said.

This process...the belief mechanism that shuts out all reality is well examined by the the following quote:

"Of the ten leading vacuum tube manufacturers, none participated in the transistor revolution"...Chet Raymo [The "R" in TRW]. The same mechanism at work there is at work now in the gold paradigm shift. Most fundfs still shun gold...meaning they remain potential buyers.

The ME is a powder keg...Arabs are heavily buying gold in a militaristic sense...they may have guessed that doing so will hurt the US.

Think of your gold investment as the purchase of well-situated land.

Sierra MadreThe XAU index descends...with gold rising...???#725494/2/02; 15:29:45

Yes, I saw it and it does seem strange.

"Manipulation" - it can work both on physical as well as on futures and stocks, too.

The stock market can be kept up - for a time - via manipulation. I guess certain stocks which are not supposed to go up, can be manipulated so they don't.

Not many people are attracted to physical gold; but a great many are into stocks; it is rather embarrasing, for the financial establishment, to have gold stocks go up. Too many commentators would have to notice. And that won't do.

We'll have to wait and watch. Much more of this, and we'll know the PPT is slamming gold stocks. If I am wrong, please let me know. Would shorting do the job, or not?


PippinGold occurences in Switzerland - recreational activities :-)#725504/2/02; 15:40:21

Just for the fun of it: you may have heard the sentence that <<Switzerland is rich in poor mines>>.

What you may not know is this is also true for gold, as demonstrated by the URL above, which displays a map showing that gold exists in Switzerland also (apart in the banks' vaults of course), although in homeopathic quantities.

Can you imagine that a total of ...73 gold coins ("Goldvreneli") were minted from the mine of Gondo in Valais ? This may explain the Swiss National Bank's sales.

So if POG moves to $ 10K per once, who knows ...we'll maybe see gold prospectors even in Geneva :-)

mikal@RPowell#725514/2/02; 15:49:49

Nothing ventured, nothing gained

Re: Your "yell" signal- 1) After some false signals a few weeks back, maybe our "irrational exuberance" should take this form: "I am indeed rich since my income is superior to my expenses, and my expense is equal to my wishes."-Edward Gibbon, Memoirs 2) Variety is the spice of life, so celebrate a little, diversify into AU (metal), and flame me once in a while! 3) Major resistance levels, recently posted here and there conclude >$4.48>>$4.75($4.80)>>$5.70>galactic enumeration. To consider: Can David Morgans $6.50 year 2002 top, satisfy you? Have you ruled out more selling from the Phillipine hoards? Mexican silver output, just announced, is up 25%, can Peru, Argentina, etc. be far behind, and is this just the prologue? Will you diversify into physical gold- the choice of Kings? :)) Thanks, your a breath of fresh air.
nickel62With apologies to COBRA TO #725524/2/02; 15:56:03

I thought the article you posted was so important I wanted to post it in it's entirety to make sure as many people saw it as possible.

Creative accounting and the destructive risk
By Henry C K Liu

Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board, frequently credits US growth in the 1990s to a rise in productivity made possible by advances in technology. Yet studies have shown that computerization did not simulate much rise in industrial productivity in the 1990s. Industrial computerization was essentially in place long before 1995. The 1990s boom in the US was not an industrial boom but a financial boom. This was made possible by three developments: the deregulation of financial markets, the computerization of trading of financial instruments, and globalization, particularly financial globalization.

The entire structured finance (derivatives) phenomenon would not be possible without any one of the above mentioned developments. Structured finance in essence allowed an unprecedented explosion of credit, by unbundling risks for a wide range of risk-takers who sought corresponding compensatory returns. While hedging initially provided protection against volatility to individual market participants, it soon became a profit center for financial institutions. This led to the institutionalization of volatility as a market opportunity. Financial institutions actually sought volatility in the system to provide a continuous profit stream.

Creative accounting, whose peculiar logic evolved from structured finance, also made the traditional debt/equity ratio immaterial. Ways were devised for the large market participants to structure debt as hedges, through swaps that avoided taxes and balance-sheet liabilities. Swaps enabled borrowers legally to book loan proceeds as current operating income and loan liabilities as future capital expenditure that could be kept off the balance sheet, inflating current earnings. Circular counterparty risks suddenly became neutralized risk, and cash flow from swaps became net revenue. These practices are now known as Enronitis.

On the macro level, the global finance game has become a sure win for those who use dollars, especially those whose government issues dollars by fiat. The world market has become a place where the United States makes dollars and the rest of the world makes what dollars can buy. But after the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the whole world essentially adopted dollarization, if not directly, at least through hedges, albeit sometimes at prohibitive cost.

At that point, the US economy suddenly began to lose its exclusive dollar hegemony advantage because US entities were no longer the only ones with access to dollars nor could US transnationals avoid non-dollar revenue. To maintain the "strong dollar" monetary policy instituted by US treasury secretary Robert Rubin at the beginning of the Bill Clinton presidency, the US Federal Reserve progressively tightened dollar money supply throughout most of the 1990s. But this did not slow the US economy because structured finance permitted debt to expand without a corresponding expansion of equity. A strong dollar gave the US economy a boom in low-cost imports, while the US trade deficit merely forced foreign exporters to hold dollar reserves to finance the US debt bubble through a US capital account surplus. Japan did this for a whole decade, pushing its own economy into permanent recession while its dollar reserves mounted. Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan took up the slack from Japan by 1995 and the three Chinese economies together now hold more dollar reserves than Japan does. China, starved for capital for domestic development, thus finds itself stuck with US$200 billion in US Treasury bills that pay 5 percent while it is forced to offer foreign direct investment high double-digit returns. The annual interest gap alone is in excess of $20 billion, which amounts to half of China's current annual foreign-capital inflow.

Growth in the 1990s came from a structural shift of the US economy from industrial capitalism to finance capitalism. Through financial globalization, the US shifted labor intensive manufacturing off US soil to low-wage locations, thus lowering the cost of manufactured products. Financial products and services and intellectual property valuation constituted most of the growth, making the US a consumer market of last resort for the whole world. London, Frankfurt, Paris, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore became financial outposts of New York, sucking up dollar reserves to support the US debt bubble.

This game is ending, as the US consumer market becomes saturated and condemned to low single-digit growth, regardless of business cycles. The wealth effect from a tripling of equity value did not double consumption in the US, because aggregate demand is constrained by a widening income disparity. The rich have bought all the manufactured products they need and the working poor cannot afford to buy all they want. The wealth effect did double investment globally, reflected in the phenomenal rise in market capitalization of US transnationals and financial institutions, particularly in the so-called New Economy. The competition for credit favored double-digit growth markets in the developing countries, but the US continued to dominate global finance through its sophistication and innovation in finance and through dollar hegemony.

The problem is that all unregulated markets eventually self-destruct. Weak competitors are naturally forced off the market, leading to monopolies that are the result of market failure of competition. Yet regulation cannot cure the problem preemptively because remedial regulation only makes sense after disasters, never before.

There is increasing evidence that the real threat to China is not democracy or the market economy per se but the peculiar US version of these institutions. The 19th-century industrial capitalism that Marx observed no longer exists. Finance capitalism is a system in which capital is only a notional value upon which to build a gigantic mountain of hidden debt. Representative democracy and unregulated market fundamentalism in the US mode now work as legalized constitutional devices to disfranchise the poor and weak, both locally and globally.

Greenspan acknowledged this in his semiannual monetary policy report to the US Congress, before the Committee on Financial Services on February 27: "From one perspective, the ever-increasing proportion of our GDP [gross domestic product] that represents conceptual as distinct from physical value-added may actually have lessened cyclical volatility. In particular, the fact that concepts cannot be held as inventories means a greater share of GDP is not subject to a type of dynamics that amplifies cyclical swings. But an economy in which concepts form an important share of valuation has its own vulnerabilities." He was of course referring to Enronitis.

Greenspan's observation about the vulnerabilities of conceptual valuation was on target, although his warning of vulnerability was disproportionately misplaced. Even after the Enron and Global Crossing controversies, Greenspan continues to resist regulation, preferring to rely on market discipline. The risk is much higher than he admits.

Past records do not reliably project future vulnerability risk. Any risk manager knows that accidents are always waiting to happen. The fact that it has not happened in the past does not mean it will not happen in the future. In fact, with each passing day without an accident, the risk of borrowed time increases. Low probability is only a source of comfort if the impact is not fatal.

Also, what Greenspan did not say, but admitted by implication, was that finance capitalism is operating with less and less reliance on capital. Capital has become a notional value in structured finance. Credit is no longer anchored by equity but by circular hedges. Debt-to-equity ratio is no longer a relevant consideration. Practically all US major businesses nowadays, with their high debt leverage, would have negative real equity if the price/earning (P/E) ratio were to return to historical norms. Blue chips are being shut out of the unsecured short-term commercial paper market. Corporate credit ratings are inflated by exorbitant market capitalization value, which in turn reflects irrational P/E ratios. Even now, during what many on Wall Street contend to be a savage bear market, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index yields 25 times earnings. It would have to fall by another 41 percent to reach the median valuation prevailing since 1957.

Such a decline can happen in a period of days in this age of program trading and socialized risk, even with circuit breakers and trading curbs. When that happens, structured finance will be a sea of dead and wounded in counterparty casualties, regardless of who won and who lost.

Henry C K Liu is chairman of the New York-based Liu Investment Group.

R PowellMore from Bob Pisani#725534/2/02; 16:12:58

Or, more likely, the research department behind the scenes. Bob now has a list of seven reasons why the POG is on the move.
1. Tensions, in the Middle-east (war) and tensions over bank deposit insurance in Japan
2. Safe haven buying in unsure times
3. Fewer bank auctions (but no mention was made of the Washington Agreement or its expiration date)
4. Momentum (a politically correct term for mania or blind, unthoughtout buying) investing. This should not be confused with rational exuberant gold accumulation sometimes known as "buying with both hands"
5. Short covering
6. Inflation fears (!!) Added emphasis is mine.
7. Alternative to the dollar. Bob had trouble reading this last reason and quickly added that some people actually question the eternal strength of the American dollar. He used the adjective "apocalyptic" in describing the thought process of these crazy people. Can you imagine? What next? Will someone suggest a slowdown in personal debt growth or (shutter) savings!

TrapperMr. Gresham#725544/2/02; 16:20:52

Re. your post #72512

Your observation of the new postage stamp and it'e new world order link reminded me of somthing you might enjoy. When the Germany fell the US army spirited off with most all of the goverment files law books etc. Some years later after the translaters got the english done many of the US congressmen and senators found them good reading. Then about mid 1960's one senator layed in wait for an event to put his new knowledge to good use. President Kennedy gets killed in Texas by Oswald (yeah right)using a rifle delivered to him via US mail. Perfect.
Now our senator has his chance and viola the 1968 gun control act. Not only a law that is in scope and style of Hitlers 1938 gun control act but in many many places word for word. Oh small.

CanuckAdditional comments to the POG up/shares down day.#725554/2/02; 16:21:08

I went thru a dozen or so companies checking the days events. A couple of the majors drifted slowly down thru the day but most interesting quite a few did the big slide (ie: Agnico) at 2:00pm.

So we have a couple theories floating about that the shares got ahead of themselves, day traders now involved in the volatility etc.

One thing not mentioned, that does bother me, is the possibility of a negative factor after the Comex (1:30?) close. This would explain the sudden slide in the case of Agnico.

I hope I am wrong in a gut feeling that POG is heading down, a take that the market recognized late in the afternoon.

Cavan Man@sector#725564/2/02; 16:23:25

My concern for owning stocks in lieu of metal is simply that the gold market is so thoroughly screwed up with shorts and specs and paper dreams to hedge dollar denominated wealth etc. ad infinitum, is that this very abnormal market will implode and then who can forecast the outcome? BTW, I own shares and metal.
Cavan ManCanuck#725574/2/02; 17:02:21

Why would POG go down under these current circumstances? I am talking about the metal not share prices.
R Powellmikal#7255804/02/02; 17:11:56

Thought you might be about! Good quote from Gibbon. Getting rich satisfies the need for a goal and being free from bill paying worries is a novel idea but making the journey may be more fun that reaching the destination. Here's another thought, "Please Lord, let the POG go to $10,000/ounce so I can prove that I can remain humble while being filthy rich."
I remember seeing that Mexican silver production was temporarily way down so that the 25% increase is just restoring its previous levels. I've forgotten why it was down, energy? The GFMS estimates of the silver deficit for year 2001 are between 80-90 million ounces. This is down from previous years but still a 7-8 million per month drawdown. Higher prices will increase production but it may take some doing. Doing often takes time, increasing production will too.
I'll be more than happy to see $6.50/ounce silver by year's end! And yes, when funds allow, I'll be a buyer of physical gold. I see merit in the physical-in-hand opinion but, when I look in my wallet, only silver is affordable so silver it is. I'd rather 100 silver coins than 2 gold ones. With paper option investments, I hold both and see about the same potential % return with an equal % increase in price. Some risk required!
Philipine silver stash? I wish I knew for sure. Ted Butler does too. Are you watching open interest? This rally may have some perseverence. Hope so!

slingshotR Powell Msg# 72553#7255904/02/02; 17:37:49

Bob Pisani's Magnificent List of Seven

Let the music begin!

Is that all the reasons they could come up with for the POG to move higher? May the Saints preserve us. How many are on this team? Wonder how long Bob's list would be if he ever logged on to this forum? Double for sure and even triple. Who will be first to buy Gold? His research team or Bob?

Bob must have seen a glimpse of the BIG PICTURE.
Just goes to prove.
If all they can do is come up with seven, we are way ahead of the pack.

Thanks USAGOLD and all at the Forum


RobotGuySector and all#7256004/02/02; 17:56:24

Thank you for ideas supporting why some equities may have travelled lower today.

Sector,.. you mentioned that the 'arabs are heavily buying gold in a militaristic sense'... Are they buying significant quantities?

I think this could really hurt North America if they decide they want gold for oil as others have stated in this forum. First buy as much gold as you can, and then charge others gold for exchange of commodities, suddenly North America has no gold, or as we all knew, nothing reserved. Who were the monkeys that ever decided we didn't need a gold standard? Who are the monkeys who continue to believe gold is a commodity?

I'll look forward to seeing this mess pan out. As for my stocks, I've learned from experience to just leave 'em sit. I lost a lot of money last year by moving it around too much, not to mention all those lost dollars in paid comissions.


The StrangerSierra Madre#7256104/02/02; 18:03:05

With respect, I think you may be making too much of the weakness in gold stocks today. Gold traded up to the high achieved earlier this year and then stutter-stepped into the close. Gains in these equities have been so impressive. Who wouldn't blame those who "lightened up" here, just in case the resistance implied by this level holds?

But, in a day or two, I suspect most of that money (and more) which exited today will be getting right back into those same gold mining issues...and probably at higher levels. After all, where else are profits being made with such facility these days?

Canuck@ Cavan Man#7256204/02/02; 18:11:53

How are you mon ami!

I agree with you, there is no reason for gold to go down. Someone today mentioned that the fundamentals and technicals do not warrant a slide. I concur 100%. It in fact warrants a major gallop through and past 1999 resistance; there is much, much more wrong with fiat today than in Sept. 99.

I wonder though if some scam is underway in Japan, I wonder if some bullsnot conspiracy is underway in the M.E. I wonder if the accounting scandal is being swept 'under the carpet'. Given the supply/demand fundamentals gold SHOULD be much higher.

There are days when I wonder if FREE MARKETS will prevail.

Sorry, just thinking aloud.


P.S.: I feel slightly better that POG is presently above the NY close.

I am reading a book about the silver explosion in the winter 1979/spring 1980. Apparently the final straw was the 'demand for delivery', the physical squeeze beginning in October 1979. I remain thoroughly convinced that the 'bull' we speak of begins and ends with supply/demand fundamentals, the 'real' thing.

Sierra MadreGood move for gold, but other thoughts intrude#7256304/02/02; 18:35:08

YGM's post at 4:16MT No. 72516 is absolutely ominous.
I don't discard the contents at all. Time to get religion!
Remember, the Mayan calendar ends with the "end of the 5th Sun" on Dec. 22, 2012. Coincidence? (The Mayan calendar counted 1,344,560 days. There is no Dec. 23, 2012.)

Gold is acting up. Is this thing about to explode? A panic is like nuclear fission. Once it gets going, it will not be stopped. We MAY see 10, 20, then 50 and 100 dollar rises per day. Game over!

Then we'll have a whole new set of problems to deal with.

I hope everyone is well stocked-up!


Solomon WeaverCanuck - your book#7256404/02/02; 18:46:34

And what, pray tell might the title of your book on the explosion of silver be?
Chris PowellJames Turk's analysis of the decision in the Howe case#7256504/02/02; 18:57:42

Reg Howe won even though his lawsuit was
dismissed. The suit just needs to be taken
over by some gold-mining companies.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
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Canuck@ Solomon Weaver#7256604/02/02; 19:05:57

I was unaware of your fascination with silver Sir!!!!!!


R PowellCanuck#7256704/02/02; 19:11:50

Solomon beat me to the punch in asking for the name of the book. If rather obscure, please include the publisher which helps in locating a copy.
Solomon's probably thinking that some detailed history of the last price explosion may give insight into how best to profit from the coming one. Also, is it well written and fun reading?

R PowellCanuck#7256804/02/02; 19:15:04

Where have you been, my friend? Solomon was thinking about silver before Warren Buffet got his first pair of long pants.

R PowellCanuck#7256904/02/02; 19:28:06

"I remain thoroughly convinced that the 'bull' we speak of begins and ends with supply/demand fundamentals, the 'real' thing."
Well spoken. The rest is market noise, some self-fulfilling technical trading or market manipulation. All these will yield over time to the invisible hand. Even the central government control of the soviet USSR couldn't overcome the influence of supply and demand.
It isn't nice to fool with Mother Nature.

sector@RobotGuy The Dubai Gold Market...#7257004/02/02; 19:32:18 leading pog's price. The gold volume is up 500%.

The shieks don't have to embargo their oil to make a point. All they have to do is purchase physical gold. The same goes for wise US investors.

Canuck@ Solomon Weaver#7257104/02/02; 19:32:38

Silver Bulls: The Great Silver Boom and Bust

Paul Sarnoff

page 31:

" officals were trying to find out from the longs what their intentions were with respect to their contracts...bullion dealers were becoming increasingly uneasy....if the longs had let go...willing to sell their contracts rather than holding out for metal."

page 23:

" became apparent that (longs) intended to accept delivery on their long futures contracts in the COMEX Sept. future."

page 21:

"....was worried about the pattern he saw developing in the silver market. Some of the silver longs, as their contracts approached maturity, were refusing to sell offsetting contracts, but instead were giving notice that they intended to take delivery....silver was becoming alarmingly scarce under the market's relentless demand..."


I'm only a quarter way through the book, much reference to the Hunt brothers so far. I am at the part where Comex began to severely increase the 'costs' for the longs, the author makes reference to the blatant 'impartiality'. I sense that the long physical holders could not 'hold out' until the very last gasp of blood-sucking air was expelled by the crooked 'paper-traders'. I hope to understand, in the end, how fortunes reversed so abruptly.

It is also very clear, so far, that initiating the 'corner' would be relatively easy, the amount of money would be insignificant ie: a la Bill Gates, a la Saudi Arabia. The trick, I believe, would be to maintain the 'corner' whilst dodging the death threats!

Awesome read so far!!

CanuckRich#7257204/02/02; 19:37:39

Pulling your leg amigo!

You and Mr. Weaver are tied for silver bull of the century.


LeSinAuschwitz Logic - Letter From Israel #7257304/02/02; 20:35:41

Letter From Israel by Ran HaCohen

The Auschwitz Logic April 1 , 2002

Black BladeSEC: Corrupt or Merely Incompetent? #7257404/02/02; 20:35:46


Berkeley, California, April 2 (Bloomberg) -- We are living through one of those times when it is more fun than it should be to work at the Securities and Exchange Commission. An accounting scandal that began with Enron Corp.'s collapse and bankruptcy has touched all sorts of unlikely suspects. There isn't a company in America that cannot plausibly be investigated, and there isn't an investigation unworthy of public attention.

Black Blade: A matter of the fox guarding the hen house? Then again, incompetence would not be all that surprising.

sectorThere Never WAS a Recession...So Your Fired!#7257504/02/02; 20:39:26

CSFB Fires 300 Investment Bankers

CSFB fires 15% of investment banking workforce
By Lina Saigol in London and John Labate in New York
Published: April 2 2002 19:52 | Last Updated: April 3 2002 00:52

Credit Suisse First Boston on Tuesday fired 300 investment bankers, including 50 managing directors, in the latest effort by new chief executive John Mack to cut the company's high cost structure.

The job cuts, which represent around 15 per cent of CSFB's investment banking workforce, are some of the most aggressive on Wall Street this year. Investment banks have cut more than 25,000 jobs already as activity on Wall Street and in London's financial district slowed dramatically in profitable areas such as underwriting and mergers and acquisitions.

But for the first time the axe is falling on significant numbers of senior employees, many of whom at CSFB are on lucrative guaranteed contracts put in place by Alan Wheat, Mr Mack's predecessor.

Adebayo Ogunlesi, appointed head of investment banking at CSFB last month, told staff of the job cuts in a memo on Tuesday afternoon.

"I understand that change is not easy, but I have been enormously proud of the effort and contribution that all of you have made to ensure our Division's success . . . With these changes behind us, we now need to unleash the energy and extraordinary talents of the best group of professionals in the industry," Mr Ogunlesi wrote.

Mr Mack has pledged to cut $1bn in costs by the end of the year. Between September and October, the investment bank shed 2,500 positions, including 700 investment bankers, which were in addition to a round of cuts made soon after its merger the year before with Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette.

The merger with DLJ is part of the reason CSFB has such high compensation costs. CSFB's compensation is about 58 per cent of net revenue. That compares with rivals such as Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch, whose compensation accounts for roughly 50 per cent of revenue.

After the latest cuts, CSFB will have around 1,900 staff in investment banking, about the same number it had before the DLJ merger.
The mouth pieces from Treasury [Paul O'Neill] will think twice before making any more announcements of a "Recovery".

BulldogPrice of Oil#7257604/02/02; 20:58:25

Black Blade some advice please

I am assuming that the entire Islam world is looking to wreck havoc on the U.S. Arabs supply money, Iraq & Iran weapons of destruction and the various terrorist groups, Hamas, Al Quaeda, etc. do the physical damage. I have heard you wax eloquently about the future price of oil. Since oil today hit a six month high, do you think this is an excellent opportunity for oil futures on the long side?
Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")POG up,SharesDOWN,What's Up Doc?#7257704/02/02; 21:08:05

Hello fellow Gold bugs, Long time lurker with macro-economic theory for a hobby. This is the 400 level finance course I never found at the university in the "happy valley". Methinks the disparity of the POG vs. the shares is due to the high volumes sold at upper price levels in expectation of 320 gold. Early birds are taking profits and too many late pidgeons have landed on a hot wire. The fact that POG is hovering over 300 is actually a negative factor for the shares because it's the Anticipation of it crossing 300 that gets the lemmings a leapin. Now it's like "I actually got to talk to her", but maybe she won't want to go out with me. Hey baby lets go to 310 and see if there is any oil on sale under 35 a barrel? Nope she's skittish and it's good for the scottish because ya gots ta buy em a wee bit cheeper so ya can become again a sounder sleeper. In like six months which ones haven't doubled?? wELL How much more fireworks are left in the bag. Better check my Fibanichi Ratios to sprinkle on my ramen noodles. Are they ready for a 30% or a 50% or the 22% retracement FROM WHAT the past month's rally or from the whole six month move? Big question on the Big Boy's minds. "Well we aren't quite sure". So they shorted in and they're selling to knock them down so they can buy it back cheaper. Smart money chasing dumb money like cats and dogs. But since gold and defense are the only bull sectors the lemmings will be back for slaughter house five in the panic sell. All that has to happen is for POG to drop under 300 for a few days and you can reread Withering Heights. Personally I don't see the minor's patterns resembling the majors and HL proved the late bloomer could hit a home run too. And I'm crying over ROOY again II. I wouldn't touch a geld moan share at this time. I'd only sell, like tomorrow at the open or catch the big red candle down. I'm only saying this for the short term. In the long term I think we will see a bifurcation of the gold market, when futures contracts get stamped "payable in cash only" before TSHTF, IMNSHO. And little physical to go around. Faith is what Jimmy Carter said we needed when POG was over 750. I remember the speech. We had a faith crisis. How much faith crisis do we have is the upside blush on the precious metals rally. Israel does not have the manpower to do another six day war, not with all the hardware the sons of Ishmael have now. So are we talking low level nuclear and a realm of USA haters because "Bush failed to contain the Israelis". That is exactly what I think it's headed to. In the long run, Israel ends up being occupied for 42 months, from the back of my history book. For it to be "occupied" it has to exist. So with all the holy people not caring about what's holy 'Thou shalt not kill' whoever wins is another's choice. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the US could get in serious trouble fighting in two hemispheres with a serious lack of oil. China wants Taiwan and whoever sells their bonds will inhibit the other ones from selling theirs. Money is bullets in the financial war. The fed uses bonds to soak up excess M1 and M2. Monetary expansion is only jeopardized by a lack of economic expansion. If the US is able to tender its currency all over the world then that is how far the tentacles reach. Only where there is an alternative do we see competitive fiat systems making inroads to the big scam. I'm a realist. The US dollar is now backed by the big gun. Does anybody want to play? So as we see the European bloc forming under monetization of the euro that is not "backed by gold", the Americas under the dollar, and the Asian Tigers in their own circus with the yen. Britian ends up breaking up because its too small. What's a pound of pounds worth without any gold behind it. So Europe gets the UK islands near it. Australia will kiss up to the US for a new clear umbrella. And Canada is going to end up as the 51st state of America infront of Mexico that's destined to be the 52nd. Repatriation of wealth is the circus of this decade that no one can get a real grip on. Who can measure M3? The derivative casino is a deflationary force that soaks up dollars that may never get redeamed for real goods. That is where I see the water coming over the edge. Dollars will eventually get redeamed for real goods. Its amazing how the whole world loves green ink and paper. But for how long? There aren't many hamburgers at the stand for all the coupons they have printed. Britain may cave in to the Germans and go with the Euro but they aren't going to sell out of the USA. It's not a all-or-nothing scenario either. The rich have freedoms to domicile their wealth anywhere they want to. The Euro is near the status of the Confederate States of America 1860's style. They had two futile wars for a union but no one could speak enough German. So why do you think they can get a union without force? People in high places sipping wine just give up their power. Yeah the Federal guys all move down to the state level and the state guys move down to the local level. But where do the local guys go to? Oh yeah, they all go home. Never son. The southern Euro members will bleed the union dry with mismanagement. Lira into the river because they're too heavy to carry around. The only way the US could keep their union together was by force in a bloody worthless civil war. Europe is going to try it the peaceful way. Why do some goldbugs think the whole world needs to get to Armageddon for the POG to hit 1000. If gold was like any other commodity that was in demand as it is right now it can do 1000 POG. The dollar can go up with gold I've seen it. I'm more bullish on gold when I see that because it makes no sense. It shows an extreme demand not fear driven. When the dollar goes up and gold goes up it means a purer demand for gold is present in a proactive trend not merely reactionary. Like how Eggnog only comes around once a year. It's unique. I'm not touting geld moaning shares because its takes alot of guts to hold them. Look up ASL and check for the crash down, ABX and AU are about as scarey, sometimes the robbers get stuck in the hedges and can't escape. Just wait, all is not wonderful in the world of mining finance. When they want to buy back stock they flood the mines. Not that they have to add any water as they flood naturally when they turn off the pumps. Then they survey high grade areas and project vast reserves. Enron would never happen at a gold mining company because the accountants there are so much more adept at hiding numbers with new acquisitions. It's what it is, gambling. And everything I said is wrong if POG spikes up to 310 and holds. Hopefully I opened up a few cans of worms so we can spark up some more worthwhile discussion in keeping with the heritage of the greatest forum in gold. To keep truth in your innermost being I think one must run the gauntlet of this world. Getting ridiculed and jabbed is nothing new for the older goldbugs. I bought my first 3 Kruggerands at 174 and sold at 385. All my grass cutting money, hard earned kid cash. Those were the days. Then interest rates hit 22% and there were lines outside coin stores of people wanting to buy gold at 800 an ounce. The gold rush of ' be continued............. :)
Black BladeRussian Oil Companies Struggling To Replenish Reserves #7257804/02/02; 21:41:58

MOSCOW -(Dow Jones)- Russian oil companies are struggling to replenish reserves this year, the news agency Interfax reported Tuesday, citing Deputy Energy Minster Valentin Shelepov.

Expected new reserve discoveries this year will be less than last year, Shelepov told a press conference in St. Petersburg .

In 2001, the country discovered about 300 million metric tons, or 2.2 billion barrels, but produced 347 million tons, or 2.536 billion bbl, an average of 6.950 million barrels a day.

Shelepov didn't forecast how much oil would be found in 2002, but said: " Distressing reports have been coming in from explorers in the first few months of the year."

Black Blade: As I have posted before. Don't look to the former Soviet republics for oil.

PizzA few comments to any interested#7257904/02/02; 22:06:04

Hey friends, relax. Mood of the forum is starting to resemble day traders with more than they can afford bet on the come.


YOU'LL DRIVE YOURSELF NUTS!!!!! Calm and confident should be the mood of the day, week, month and year as we watch what we believe, come to pass.

Gold and Silver are moving up. We know why. PM stocks are moving up - THEY WILL LEAD SPOT JUST LIKE THE SM'S LEAD THE ECONOMY. Stocks will not move like spot, they are more emotional because they are easier to buy and sell. Today they are neither ahead of gold or behind it, they are just there. Tomorrow will be different. They do not have to move in tandem and make sense hour by hour or even day to day.

Stock buyers are not spot PM buyers and vice versa. Some of us here are part of a small group that both buy spot and dabble in a little bit of paper. Most buy paper and are in for the short term. Don't follow the herd. NOTHING MOVES STAIGHT UP (OR DOWN FOR THAT MATTER).

Keep adding to your physcial position - it's the safest bet in town. THE FUNDAMENTALS HAVE NEVER BEEN BETTER IN ANY OF OUR LIFETIMES.

If you play paper (and most of us do), take your positions, ride them up - that's where they're going LONG TERM - and liquidate as you feel comfortable and buy more physical. Gold and silver are ready to break - up -. When they do, at the worst case senario IMHO, 10 to 15 years from now, gold should be trading in the thousands. Silver in the hundreds. May be 1 to 3 years - so what. Most of us still think in terms of fiat. THINK IN TERMS OF WEATH ACCUMULATION AND ANY FIAT YOU MAKE, INVEST IN WEALTH. We know the definition of wealth - Don't we???

Keep the faith and patience will be a virture you can either retire on or live very well (at least better than your peers.)

For those of you who like silver (I do), keep the faith. 90% of this country either can't (thats most of them) or won't buy gold because of price. When the bulk of the populace finally figure out what we know, just what in the heck are they going to buy???? My guess is silver.

GR2 - WHAT???????


Black BladeRe: Bulldog – Oil#7258004/02/02; 22:22:58

Sorry, but I don't speculate with futures contracts. However, I believe that the long-term outlook for energy is higher prices due to dwindling supply and increased demand. That said, it is possible that Middle East tensions may smooth out and oil prices might pull back some. I tend to invest in energy trusts (oil and natural gas), partnerships (propane), niche energy markets (uranium fuel reprocessing), natural gas pipelines, and some natural gas dominated utilities. And Gold and Silver of course.

The point is that we are not likely to see "Cheap Energy" again. The transmission grid is antiquated and in serious disrepair. Any economic recovery will only increase demand for energy – energy that we simply do not have. Energy is one cost that must sink straight to the corporate (and consumer) bottom line. This cost cannot be avoided or trimmed back if corporations wish to expand production. The bull market of the 1980's and 1990's were mostly due to an abundance of "Cheap Energy". Therefore any economic recovery in the short term is speculative at best.

In fact over the last couple of days while the price of oil and natural gas (and Gold) were rising strongly, the same oddball statements about "energy is not important to the economy anymore" were heard on various financial media. Even Alan Greenspan said such nonsense. Yet during the tech and boom we saw a tremendous growth in computers, server farms, increased telecom use of the Internet, a general rapid growth in industrial manufacturing, etc. The system finally imploded and the result was rolling blackouts in California, near collapse of the electrical grid on the East Coast (New York in particular), and states such as Washington refusing to sacrifice energy for energy deprived California (partly due to drought and partly due to phenomenal demand increases).

Since energy is strategically important to US national security and economic prosperity there have been calls in some quarters for an Energy Marshall Plan" to develop energy sources with the goal for energy independence. This is a desirable goal of course although extremely difficult given the political realities. It is possible that there will be a push from official quarters to move toward energy independence (possibly through a combination of conservation measures, relaxation of some environmental regulations and tax breaks). This of course will take several years. Therefore the long-term outlook for energy (natural gas in particular) is very strong.

This brings us to Gold and Silver as portfolio insurance. Every postwar recession has been preceded by an "energy crisis". Whether it was the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, the 1979 Iranian Revolution and Russian Invasion of Afghanistan, or the 1990 Gulf War, each event preceded an economic recession. Of course Gold and Silver prices responded as well they should during periods of economic uncertainty. Some these event also led to double digit inflation and prompted politicians to emplace price controls. The end result was make a bad situation worse. We also know that Gold and Silver rocketed to record high prices. So from my point of view one could do well to invest in energy and insure ones portfolio with precious metals (the alternative currency).

I hope this helps, Cheers!

- Black Blade

YGMALL.......Gold Rush!#7258104/02/02; 22:25:39

Question of $20. or $30. day runs.....

From my view that would be lovely to see, 'BUT'
Remember Oct. /99 Gold ran up as much as +/- $10/$15 a day for a couple days and went from ?$260. range to $325. range +/-(I don't remember exact #'s) but my point is it stayed up for about 10 days/2 wks and the shorts (major ones)& Cabal never blinked, they just drove it back down over time. What I wish to see is the small but significant moves we're having now continue and the shorts continue their Kamakaze dives over a period of at least 30 days give or take and when they wake up and and smell the fire it will be too late and then and only then will they "PANIC" and feed the non-extinguishable fire with their own buying. I know about "ALL" the factors that can and will fuel the fire but think we definately need long exposure to higher prices before the Cabal will abandon the leaky ship that they have kept afloat for so long.....FWIW....YGM

PS: I do believe that time is finally under way and not another false hope. Their Bilge Pumps are worn out with rhetoric and over use. Go Physical & Sleep Well.

Black BladePuplava Market Wrap Up#7258204/02/02; 22:46:41

Energy on the Rise


Tensions in the Middle East, rising oil prices and lower profit forecasts all weighed on today's markets. Oil prices rose by $0.83 a barrel to $27.75, while natural gas prices ended the session with a $0.09 gain at $3.635. Prices of energy have been rising across the board due to rising tensions in the Middle East, which could cause a disruption in oil supplies to the West. Oil prices climbed higher after Iraq, a key OPEC state, threatened to cut off supplies to the West to force Israel to capitulate to Palestinian demands. Iraq is in discussions with Iran to impose and oil embargo against the U.S. should it decide to support Israel or move against Iraqi leadership. Iran has been caught supplying Arafat with arms, putting it on the list of states that contribute and support various terrorist groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Fattah, and al Qaeda. Today, Iran said the use of an oil embargo could be very effective in forcing Israel to withdraw from Palestinian territories. Iraq and Iran are moving to gain consensus with other OPEC members for an oil embargo against the U.S. and its allies in the region. With OPEC having cut back oil production and inventories of oil falling more than expected has resulted in oil prices heading back towards $30 a barrel. Crude prices at the end of the day were at their highest level in more than six months.

The growing conflict in the Middle East is also helping to push up prices in gold and silver. Gold prices closed at $306.90 on the NYMEX while silver prices rose $0.04 to $4.74. Up until recently during periods of political tension or an economic crisis, the U.S. dollar was the preferred haven in times of crisis. Not this time. The greenback is now considered vulnerable, and the attack on the Trade Towers also shows the U.S. itself is susceptible to attack. Therefore, global investors are turning toward gold and silver as a safe refuge during times of economic and political turmoil. Central bankers are trying to fight the shift out of paper assets into gold and silver by trying to resurrect the gold carry trade, hoping to encourage the selling of gold. Right now gold lease rates have come down while Treasury yields have gone up. The spread between the two rates, what it costs to borrow and sell gold, and invest in U.S. Treasuries has widened over the last three months.

Black Blade: Another interesting article.

Black BladeU.S. to Tap Pension Funds to Avoid Hitting Debt Limit #7258304/02/02; 22:56:15


Washington, April 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. will reach the limit of its authority to borrow money on April 4, forcing the Treasury Department to tap a $40 billion civil service retirement fund to prevent the government from defaulting on its debts, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill said.

In a letter to congressional leaders, O'Neill said their refusal to lift the mandated $5.95 trillion debt limit will force him to tap the Federal Retirement Thrift Savings Fund, also known as the G-Fund.

Over the next 10 business days the government has obligations totaling $45 billion to $55 billion, including $27 billion in Social Security payments which it would be unable to meet without the maneuvering.

Black Blade: Can you say: "We're bankrupt!" I knew you could.

Black BladeSoaring Oil Prices Seen Jeopardizing Economic Recovery#7258404/02/02; 23:11:42!201098,201098,515813/SH/0/depot/0/index.html

HB/svu DÜSSELDORF/BERLIN. As the Middle East conflict escalates, economists and other experts are debating the extent of the threat that rising oil prices can be said to present to the upturn in the global economy expected later this year.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said that if the price of oil rises by a further $10 a barrel, it could shave half a percentage point off GDP growth in the industrialized world. Based on this calculation, Germany's GDP would grow by just 0.2% in 2002.

The current oil price already stands above the upper level of $25 a barrel on which the German government's council of independent advisers based its economic forecasts in autumn last year. "Expensive oil is a risk factor which we didn't see at the time," said Jens Weidmann, general secretary of the council. But the council as yet sees no reason to revise down its GDP growth forecast of around 0.75% for 2002.

Black Blade: These are rather optimistic projections IMO. Many foriegn countries are basing an economic recovery on a "supposed" Us economic recovery.

Black BladeEconomic wild card: oil prices #725854/3/02; 00:20:50


If nerves are jittery right now in the Middle East, jitters likewise are rippling through the oil markets - and from there rattling perceptions about inflation and world economic growth. For now, the sharp jump in oil prices this year - and particularly in the last couple of weeks - isn't causing economists to race to their computers to recalculate global growth rates.
But the increase is prompting some observers to question earlier assumptions on worldwide inflation. And if inflation levels are climbing, then doubts begin to arise about the future strength of consumer spending, especially in the United States, and about the vigor of the global economic recovery.
With Iraq and Iran both threatening Tuesday to use a cutoff of their oil supplies as a weapon in support of the Palestinians, the Middle East looms large as a powerful catalyst - along with the recovering world economy - to higher oil prices.
But the increase is prompting some observers to question earlier assumptions on worldwide inflation. And if inflation levels are climbing, then doubts begin to arise about the future strength of consumer spending, especially in the United States, and about the vigor of the global economic recovery.

Strad MasterGeneral Question#725864/3/02; 00:24:16

Several months ago someone here posted up the URL for a peculiar web site that proclaimed that around this time there would be great turmoil in Israel and throughout the world. It was called something like "Zion Time". I only scanned it briefly, preferring to bookmark it and come back to it now, when the time was ripe. I do recall, though, that it had something to do with specific advice for Jews and non-Jews on surviving the crisis which they claimed was imminent, part of which involved tearing a dollar bill in half and sending half to them in Israel. Anyway, the bookmark I had for that site no longer seems to work. Considering recent events, I was curious to do a more comprehensive read of what they had predicted. Any information on where that site may have moved to if it still exists at all?
PippinBlack Blade - your 72.585#725874/3/02; 00:31:26

<<But the increase is prompting some observers to question earlier assumptions on worldwide inflation. And if inflation levels are climbing, then doubts begin to arise about the future strength of consumer spending, especially in the United States, and about the vigor of the global economic recovery.>>

Strange - I don't clearly understand this statement. I always believed that one had to own goods (and be in debts) in case in inflation rather than owning cash.
Since product <A> will be more expensive in one month than today, I will buy it today and sell it in one month, even sometimes if I have to get in debts. So this is likely to accelerate the spending - not the opposite.

What did I miss ?

Black BladeMinister slams Japanese bureaucrats#725884/3/02; 01:40:18


Japan's finance minister has delivered a tongue-lashing both to his own officials and to Japan's biggest bank, Mizuho. In a near-unprecedented public tirade against both the bank and his own officials, Masajuro Shiokawa complained that the urgency of Japan's financial problems was not getting through to them.

Black Blade: At least someone understands the dire situation surrounding insolvent Japanese banks and the crumbling Japanese economy. It appears that the Japanese government pension fund came into the market to give support to the Nikkei that fell off a cliff at the start though finished positive by +196 points at the end of the trading session.

TopazStrad Master#725894/3/02; 02:12:43

The site goes around in circles a bit.....enjoy!
Golden BearPippin (msg#: 72587)#725904/3/02; 02:14:45

Greetings Pippin,

Both you and BB are correct: inflation causes the value of each fiat unit to be worth less so you must pay more for the same goods than you did previously. During gradual inflation, many go into debt to purchase goods to be paid back later in devalued fiat.

But at some point, the inflation begins to get out of hand - the bond market starts to demand higher interest rates to take on the risk of buying bonds, and this forces the central banks to raise rates to cool off the economy -> decreased consumer spending.


Mr Greshamnickel62, Pizz, Gauntlet-Runner2#725914/3/02; 02:15:28

nickel62, great post from Henry Liu, with lots of perspectives on the big picture as we may not have seen it yet. The move to US finance capitalism ahead of Chinese and others is a game-ending move, but not a winning one. "Resigns."

Pizz -- good reminder to keep eyes on Wealth.

GR2 -- great first post! A little bit of Harry Schultz, by way of Vonnegut & Joyce, eh? (Or is it Tom Robbins?) BTW, (ask R Powell for our old homies list), might your Gauntlet be Rt. 9, if your valley be the happy one?

BelgianWith (reserved) conviction ?#725924/3/02; 02:47:40

With the help of Fibonacci on POG (LT) : When POG goes through 308$ (with two day closes) >>> GOLD is set FREE !
NIA = No Investment Advise !

CBII : The article by Henry C K Liu = Marvellously worded and the greatest encouragement for all those, not yet *Physically* into the yellow lifeboat. Thanks.

Topaznickel62 (4/2/02; 15:56:03MT - msg#: 72552#7259304/03/02; 02:59:44

Mr Liu certainly walks the path less tread eh? Great perspective - a little bit of the Oil "SPONGE" factor ( rising oil prices to sop up US$'s )we are witnessing - NOT to cause inflation but rather to attempt to control DEflation!! "Black Gold"..HA!....rather more like "Liquid Paper".
Black BladeGold Rebounds#7259404/03/02; 03:02:22

Gold was under pressure in after hours, though now has recovered above the $305/oz. level (see graph). Meanwhile tensions in the Middle East are still a concern as street battles have broken out with several Palestinians taking sanctuary in a christian cathedral and another group in a christian convent. Israeli tanks have moved into Jenin and are about to move into some other West Bank towns for house to house searches and minor skirmishes.

Iraq and Iran (at the behest of Iraq, the PA, and Hezbollah) both are now contemplating an Oil Embargo against the west. Combined they both can create shortages that would resemble the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo. It appears that this situation has a way to go yet.

- Black Blade

Black BladeBusinesses sing bottom-line blues #7259504/03/02; 03:29:44

Despite rebound, firms’ profit crunch haunts recovery


THAT’S BECAUSE THE mildness of the recession masked a ferocious corporate-profits crunch that has many chief executives still slashing jobs and other costs. If they continue, the cuts could slow the recovery. But the recession was one of the harshest in memory when measured by changes in profit levels. The Commerce Department said aftertax corporate profits declined 15.9 percent last year, one of the worst annual profit declines since World War II.

Black Blade: And it's not getting any better. Profits (the real kind of profits) have failed to materialize in spite of the wildest Pro Forma accounting from the Arthur Andersen school of finance. The investing public now more than ever realize that the Emperor wears no clothes.

Grubstakerthe REST of the story. RE: msg#: 72583)#725964/3/02; 05:30:38

the REST if the story... 04/02 10:18
U.S. to Tap Pension Funds to Avoid Hitting Debt Limit (Update1)
By Simon Kennedy

Washington, April 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. will reach the limit of its authority to borrow money on April 4, forcing the Treasury Department to tap a $40 billion civil service retirement fund to prevent the government from defaulting on its debts, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill said.

In a letter to congressional leaders, O'Neill said their refusal to lift the mandated $5.95 trillion debt limit will force him to tap the Federal Retirement Thrift Savings Fund, also known as the G-Fund.

Over the next 10 business days the government has obligations totaling $45 billion to $55 billion, including $27 billion in Social Security payments which it would be unable to meet without the maneuvering.

Treasury will sell $46 billion in short-term cash management bills this week to cover those expenditures. By mid-April, a slew of income tax receipts will provide the government with fresh cash and end the need to juggle funds. In his letter, O'Neill said he would end use of the G-Fund ``on or about'' April 18.

Congress has refused O'Neill's repeated requests to raise the limit by $750 billion, a move necessitated by additional spending for the war on terrorism, a drop in tax receipts brought on by the recession, and regularly increasing payments for Social Security benefits.

``We must continue working to enact an increase in the statutory debt limit as quickly as possible to avoid any negative repercussions at home or abroad,'' O'Neill wrote in his letter, which was released by the Treasury Department.

Following Rubin's Lead

Republicans in Congress want to maintain the limit as a check on spending. Democrats want to keep it so they can blame President George W. Bush's tax cuts for the government's inability to pay its debts. Congress is now in recess until April 8, and no action is expected for several weeks.

In tapping the G-Fund, O'Neill is following the lead of former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin.

The last time the government reached its borrowing limit, in 1995 and early 1996, Rubin reworked auction schedules, stopped selling savings bonds and manipulated government retirement accounts such as the G-Fund to find $139 billion and remain beneath the ceiling.

The G-Fund was created in the early 1980s. Its assets are represented by a non-marketable government security with a one-day maturity. Each night, a new security paying the latest interest rates automatically replaces the maturing one.

Beneficiaries Protected

By suspending the nightly update or rollover, and leaving an IOU in place of the assets, O'Neill extinguishes debt, enabling Treasury to sell new notes or bills without threatening to breach the debt ceiling.

``G-Fund beneficiaries are full protected and will suffer no adverse consequences from this action'' because the money will be paid back in full once the debt limit is raised, O'Neill wrote.

``In short, the result on the G-Fund and its beneficiaries will be the same as if this temporary action had never taken place,'' he wrote.

Treasury officials have also used regular auctions to buy time. The department's debt managers pared the size of 4-week bill auctions, cutting issuance to $19 billion from $23 billion. They also capped the amount of two-year notes sold in March at February's level of $25 billion.

In a statement, Peter Fisher, Treasury undersecretary for domestic finance, said the department would take ``every prudent step'' to avoid breaching the debt limit. ``As we work with Congress to raise the limit going forward, we will do our utmost to avoid disruptions in our normal borrowing patterns,'' he said.

The government sells securities to pay its bills while it waits for tax receipts to come in, and to pay the interest on existing debt. The first debt ceiling of $11.5 billion was introduced in 1917. It reached $1.1 trillion in 1981 and was last boosted, from $5.5 trillion, as part of a bipartisan balanced budget agreement in 1997.

Few Repercussions

While the 1995-1996 crisis injected volatility into the $3 trillion government security market, few analysts expect there to be any repercussions from O'Neill's moves.

Treasury began to highlight its problem in December and signaled that it was considering copying Rubin's strategy, limiting the likelihood that the maneuvering will cause higher interest rates, analysts said.

``They made it clear early enough what they were thinking of doing so they'll not incur costs,'' said Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson Associates Inc., a research firm.

And unlike 1996, when Moody's Investors Service placed U.S. debt ``on review for possible downgrade,'' the creditworthiness of U.S. government debt is not in doubt now.

``It's still the top credit on the planet,'' said Sean Egan, managing director of Egan-Jones Ratings Co. in Wynnewood, Pennsylvania. ``Terrorist attacks didn't change that so neither will this.''

Political Fallout

There are some risks. Foreign investors who don't understand the nuances of his actions could begin to ``question the credibility'' of the Treasury when it says it can back up its debt obligations, said Gerald Lucas, a government bond analyst with Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York. That could mean a rise in interest rates.

``There are methods to get around Congress, but when it's playing politics with the debt limit that leads to a risk premium on U.S. debt,'' he said.

Rubin's actions in 1995 also brought threats of impeachment from Republicans in Congress.

The worst O'Neill may face is criticism for touching retirement accounts at the same time as lawmakers are complaining about the impact of Enron Corp.'s collapse on its employees' pension funds, said Stephen Stanley, an economist at Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. in Greenwich, Connecticut.

``There may be political fallout because the Enron crisis has raised sensitivity toward retirement funds,'' he said. ``But that will be the only fallout.''
For the record:
I am personally fully invested in this US Government fund as a former civil service employee. This is not the first time the "G" fund has been used as a political football.
This fund is safer than ANY US Treasury issue, period. It is a special issue US Treasury fund open ONLY to US Government employees, including US Senators and US Congressmen.
"It is better to refrain from commenting when one does not know of which he speaks"
Good Day,
"G" man

nickel62Can anyone comment on this or on its factuality ....It is fairly significant I think...Bestse Post open pit mine was the wellspring that made American Barrick the financial behemouth that it became...#725974/3/02; 06:39:20

The "Deep Post" high grade underground mine was located under the open pit mine but I only saw this information posted on Le Metropole Cafe website. Now I can't seem to locate it again..This is a quote from a mining executive's letter sent to Murphey and published there on the web site.

"Do you find it interesting that recently Barricks Betze Open Pit in Nevada failed a little earlier than expected bringing down 70 Million tons of rock. Guess where it landed ? On top of the Deep Post underground mine, burying 180,000 ozs of gold forever. And my my not a word in the press. Why ? Because the failure was expected ? Maybe, but not the loss of the ounces in the Deep Post !!!!!!!!!!! Ounces that may be important to delivery into thier hedge ? This information came to me at an annual mine safety refresher class given by the State of Nevada ...."

nickel62Please take note of GOldman news only let out last friday when no one was around....Very important...!!!#725984/3/02; 06:41:18

Here is a sign that the manipulation is finally being recognized for what it is...Goldman did manage to get it released on Good Friday when the markets are closed...maybe we can help them get it publicized a little more broadly...too bad CNBC hasn't had a chance to mention this yet! Must be too busy touting GE 30 year bonds...
Goldman May Be Charged Over Bond Trading, People Say (Update1)
By Vicky Stamas

Washington, March 29 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has been notified that the Securities and Exchange Commission enforcement staff plans to pursue a case against the third-biggest securities firm for trading Treasury bonds based on inside information, a person familiar with the case said.

The agency began investigating Goldman after a consultant the firm had hired gave traders advance warning Oct. 31 that the U.S. Treasury Department would stop selling 30-year bonds. The $3 trillion Treasury market rallied, with the 30-year bond having its biggest one-day gain in 14 years.

The SEC notification, called a ``Wells notice,'' is one of the last steps before the agency's staff asks the commission to discipline a securities firm by filing a civil lawsuit or administrative proceeding.

``It means the staff has reached a conclusion, subject to your persuading them otherwise, that your client ought to be charged with some violation of the federal securities laws,'' said John Olson, senior partner at Gibson Dunn & Crutcher in Washington.

A case against Goldman would be the first insider-trading bond case in memory, some lawyers said. ``I'm not certain I can recall a single case involving bonds, but there's absolutely no reason that a case could not involve bonds,'' said Joel Seligman, dean of the Washington University School of Law. ``It can involve any security.''

Lucas Van Praag, a Goldman spokesman in New York, declined to comment, as did SEC enforcement chief Stephen M. Cutler and Treasury spokeswoman Betsy Holahan. The consultant hired by Goldman, Peter Davis, president of Davis Capital Investment Ideas, had no comment.

Davis also received a Wells notice, according to the person familiar with the case.

Explaining a Surge

Goldman spokesman Peter Dietlmaier said Nov. 12 that the firm was among the companies told of the Treasury's decision before the government announcement. The firm didn't engage in wrongful behavior and will assist authorities with an investigation, he said at the time.

The firm, the third largest by capital, wouldn't comment then on whether its traders tried to benefit from the information by buying bonds before the government's announcement. Securities laws prohibit trading on non-public information.

Davis said he told clients of the Treasury's decision to stop selling bonds, based on a press briefing he attended at 9 a.m. on Oct. 31, before the department made the announcement at 10 a.m. Government officials held the briefing, intended for reporters, on condition that the media not release the information until 10 a.m.

The Treasury itself posted the news on its Web site at 9:43 a.m., 17 minutes before the embargo ended.

The Davis leak helped explain a rise in prices that at the time dumbfounded traders and investors in the bond market, where $300 billion of securities trade daily.

The benchmark Treasury bond price jumped from 102 1/2 at 9:30 a.m. New York time, when the meeting with the press ended, to 104 at 10 a.m. By contrast, between 9 a.m. and 9:30 a.m., the bond traded within a range of 1/8 point.

Treasuries had fallen on an 8:30 a.m. report that showed U.S. growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations. Traders scaled back bets that the Federal Reserve would lower its target interest rate by half a percentage point.

Buying soon overwhelmed those who were selling on the economic report. The rising bond price sent its yield down 9 basis points in the 12 minutes before 10 a.m.

Falling Yields

The price surge wreaked havoc among bond traders, many of whom were locked into bets that yields on 30-year bonds would rise relative to short-term debt, such as two-year notes, traders said.

Instead, the bond buying shrank the two- to 30-year yield gap by 30 basis points in a few hours, marking the reversal of the strategy that had proven profitable for almost a year.

By day's end, the Treasury's announcement had sparked the biggest one-day gain in 14 years, and pushed the yields to levels not seen since Russia's debt default and the collapse of hedge fund Long Term Capital Management in 1998.

U.S. Treasury General Counsel David Aufhauser said in November that his agency would ask the SEC to investigate the matter.

Davis said he also disclosed the Treasury's decision to Stone & McCarthy Research Associates and Capra Asset Management. Ray Stone, a managing partner of Stone & McCarthy, declined to comment.

James Capra, president of Capra, didn't return a call. He chairs the Treasury Advisory Borrowing Committee, a group that advises the government on the mix of debt securities it sells. The group had recommended the elimination of the 30-year bond in January 2000, when surpluses were projected to continue growing. Traders hadn't expected the bond to be eliminated because a return to budget deficits meant an increased borrowing need.

The SEC has authority to determine whether insider-trading laws have been violated. It can subpoena trading records to see if Wall Street firms were given advance notice of the Treasury's decision.

YGMNickel 162#725994/3/02; 07:02:07

burying 180,000 ozs of gold "forever"

From a Goldminers viewpoint a couple things spring to mind.. Firstly, nothings buried forever! Not if the grades were high enough. Secondly, if it buried the part of the deposit that was being worked underground then a new adit is not that expensive to open. Remember they had to move alot of overburden in the first place to get to the Gold. Also all large Cap miners like ABX don't even mine small deposits like 180 K oz's. They usually sell off any property with less than 500 K oz's to a junior producer. All things considered it seems like either smoke and mirrors for whatever reason or media is making too much of it....FWIW....YGM.
SpartacusJapan#726004/3/02; 07:11:11

Japan deflation unmoved by monetary base growth By Mariko Sanchanta.

---Japan's monetary base surged in March by its largest monthly increase in 28 years, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday.

The monetary base, a combination of bank reserves and money in circulation, rose 32.6 per cent year-on-year to Y87,150bn, and has risen consecutively for over a year

Banknotes in circulation increased by 14.6 per cent in March year-on-year, following a rise of 12.4 per cent in February. ---

nickel62YGM#726014/3/02; 07:15:22

I know you are an actual miner with many years of experience so I appreciate your comments. But if I am correct and I have been to the Goldstrike property five or six times with both Barrick and Newmont over the last ten years, the Betse Post deposit was one of the northernly parts of the gigantic open pit that used to be a mountain that was collectively called the Goldstrike Mine. It was located in the northern part of the property right near the property boarder with Newmont. What I interpreted happened is that the slope was too steep and collapsed a little sooner then expected and closed access to the underground, I assume from the bottom of the goldstrike open pit with the 70 million tonnes of waste falling from the sides of the open pit. If that is the case it might mean that the economics of getting to that portion of the underground deposit beneath the open pit is no longer viable economically. Newmont's underground is also under their deposit a few miles away and if I remember correctly the Deep Post deposit was a large deposit that was accessed via adits driven into the bottom of the open Goldstrik pit and it seems that was the access that was "lost" under the collapsed overburden from the pits collapse. With all of the forward hedging I wonder why no one has mentioned this before though if it was indeed true. There must be at least a few Nevada miners that lurk at this site or citizens of Elko Nevada that might have some accurate information on this situation. Thanks for your insight YGM, If I remember correctly you had a gold deposit with some high grade ore that was troubled by mud separation in the Yukon. Is there any chance that mine might be economic here again?
SpartacusInflationary Pressures#726024/3/02; 07:17:27

New York, April 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell on concern inflation will accelerate as the economy rebounds from recession, dimming the allure of fixed-rate investments.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig last night said the economy is growing faster than expected, bolstering expectations the central bank will raise interest rate by midyear to curb faster inflation.

``The longer rates stay at this level, the greater the likelihood that credit to finance growth will accelerate, the money supply will accelerate and inflationary pressures will result in time,'' Hoenig said in a speech to a Kansas City economic forum. He is a non-voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, which convenes next on May 7.

His comments differ from those of other Fed officials, including Robert McTeer, president of the Fed Bank of Dallas, who said last week he is ``in no hurry'' to raise rates. Both San Francisco and Philadelphia Fed Presidents Robert Parry and Anthony Santomero have said they expect inflation to remain under control.

SpartacusInflationary Pressures#726034/3/02; 07:17:28

New York, April 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell on concern inflation will accelerate as the economy rebounds from recession, dimming the allure of fixed-rate investments.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig last night said the economy is growing faster than expected, bolstering expectations the central bank will raise interest rate by midyear to curb faster inflation.

``The longer rates stay at this level, the greater the likelihood that credit to finance growth will accelerate, the money supply will accelerate and inflationary pressures will result in time,'' Hoenig said in a speech to a Kansas City economic forum. He is a non-voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, which convenes next on May 7.

His comments differ from those of other Fed officials, including Robert McTeer, president of the Fed Bank of Dallas, who said last week he is ``in no hurry'' to raise rates. Both San Francisco and Philadelphia Fed Presidents Robert Parry and Anthony Santomero have said they expect inflation to remain under control.

HenriWhoa!#726044/3/02; 07:33:32

Someone is trashing the POG in NY
YGMNickel 162#726054/3/02; 07:40:47

I gave up and went bankrupt due to low Gold prices for last 7 years and am returning to the Placer workings of Dawson area (better grade creeks than my previous undertakings)
for the coming season on a wage and Gold sharing arrangement. No more shouldering of all the costs :))
An old adage of Placer miners is that the best way to mine is w/ someone else's money....YGM.

PS: Let the Cabal and Short crazies hammer Gold (ie: today's a good example of my last nites post) they will eventually find the anvil of physical offtake to much to bear. We still may be months away from that time IMHO....
People buying paper Gold will not keep the price high. Only those taking delivery of Physical will do that. Again just my opinion.....YGM

YGMBull Mkt in AU......#726064/3/02; 07:51:41

Will prove itself if.....

The buyers are laying in the weeds waiting to go again after the Cabal have driven the price backwards to the limit. We'll see what the buying strength and true demand is then. This fools game they play couldn't be any more perfect for those players with deep pockets like Soros or Buffet etc........YGM.
CoBra(too)POG - over $300 - #726074/3/02; 07:54:00

Hoping that the ceiling is turning out to be a new floor. More later - Best cb2

@ Belgian: Hello, friend -seems youre interpreting our chinese friend Liu as I do.

@ Nickel - You're more than welcome and re Betse Post - have heard same rumours too, though didn't have time to verify. BTW, YGM - good to see ya back - hope everything is going well with you!

@ Lady Leigh - thanks for your kind message before Easter - hope you've had also a great one.

TruthcasterGold's getting kicked#726084/3/02; 07:55:46

Wow looking around at the gold mining stocks
they are really being taken to the woodshed.
This all started yesterday with the gold stocks down from
3% to 8% and then with gold falling today down 4.50 at 8:45am cdt we have seen all of this week and last week gains
wiped out, with the big losses in glg, gold, cde, I hope
the 300 mark can hold if not look out below.. Truthcaster

nickel62Panic of Truthcaster..#726094/3/02; 08:15:17

Yes that would be terrible if gold were to punch through $300! It would be almost a 2% drop certainly a reason to panic. Man thanks for sharing your insights about the downside potential..
nickel62In actual fact truthcaster!#7261004/03/02; 08:18:13

Newmont is off less than a $1.00 per share as we speak trading at $27.59 off it's low which is a same because I was trying to buy more. AEM and Goldcorp are barely off their highs. The hedgers are down less then a percent and a half...Where exactly are you seeing this collapse?
nickel62YGM sorry to hear about the situation with your past mine..but glad to hear you are persavering...#7261104/03/02; 08:24:40

I got wacked at the other side of the business as an investor so I understand the situation quite well. Do you have any insite into the situation of the old Wolverine Discovery that was trumpeted by Aetna Reasources in late 1995 and then ended up being controlled by Archer Cathro who are big in the Dawson area if I recall correctly. There was some talk of refinancing that property through their Expatriate Resources but I have lost touch. Any rumors in your area? Thanks in advance and good luck. Welcome back.
nickel62Well "Truthcaster" cat got your tongue?#7261204/03/02; 08:28:22

Feel free to respond if you care to continue. Or are you simply intested in making sure that the market gets your words of wisdom about the potential dangers of falling gold prices?
nickel62Truthcaster the truth is even the stocks which you quoted are off only a fraction#7261304/03/02; 08:35:06

GLG an old time Canadian spec stock which is off 2.6% intraday, GOLD or Goldfields is off .38 cents on a $10 plus stock after having doubled in the last four months and Cour de lane is a silver stock and is off 2 cents, hardly a reason to throw myself or any investor off the Brooklyn Bridge...what exactly is your interest in posting here?
Cavan ManBelgian, CB (too)#7261404/03/02; 08:36:16

Did I miss comments by this Mr. CK Liu? Can you illuminate? Homeward bound....CM
Cavan ManPIZZ#7261504/03/02; 08:37:25

Great thoughts on AU and AG; paper and metal.
WaveriderCavan Man#7261604/03/02; 08:40:29

Re: Mr. Liu - see yesterdays post by Nickel62 #72552. Cheers!
YGMNickel162#7261704/03/02; 08:43:17

Wolverine Dep.

I think it was an area play that lost it's luster. Atna president Peter Delancey (whom I know) is as sharp as a pin and never would have let it go otherwise. Atna had a good run w/ it tho....Expat----- is a ship of fools.
sectorTelcos Layoffs Continue...WorldCom#7261804/03/02; 08:45:31

WorldCom to cut 5,500 jobs and redeem bonds
By Richard Waters in New York
Published: April 3 2002 15:56 | Last Updated: April 3 2002 16:04

WorldCom is preparing to cut up to 10 per cent of the jobs at its main business services division, according to a person familiar with the plans.

The cuts, which would affect as many as 5,500 workers, mark the latest attempt by the US telecommunications company to come to terms with pressures in the troubled long-distance and data communications industries.

The lay-offs will not affect the 20,000 workers at MCI Communications, WorldCom's independently-listed consumer long-distance business, the person familiar with the plans said.

Separately, WorldCom said it would redeem $700m of bonds issued by MCI. The repurchase follows persistent speculation that a shortage of cash would eventually force WorldCom to cut the dividend paid to MCI's shareholders, and possibly repurchase the tracking stock. The telecoms company had consistently said that it has no such plans.
Weeeeeeee! Isn't this recovery GREAT! Just imagine how much FUN these workers are having….as they prepare to visit the local unemployment office.

nickel62Thanks YGM#7261904/03/02; 08:46:24

Your insights as an actual participant in the business is invaluable to all of us.
nickel62Belgian glad to repost best wishes to you! Cobra to found this one...#7262004/03/02; 08:48:49

Creative accounting and the destructive risk
By Henry C K Liu
Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board, frequently credits US growth in the 1990s to a rise in productivity made possible by advances in technology. Yet studies have shown that computerization did not simulate much rise in industrial productivity in the 1990s. Industrial computerization was essentially in place long before 1995. The 1990s boom in the US was not an industrial boom but a financial boom. This was made possible by three developments: the deregulation of financial markets, the computerization of trading of financial instruments, and globalization, particularly financial globalization.

The entire structured finance (derivatives) phenomenon would not be possible without any one of the above mentioned developments. Structured finance in essence allowed an unprecedented explosion of credit, by unbundling risks for a wide range of risk-takers who sought corresponding compensatory returns. While hedging initially provided protection against volatility to individual market participants, it soon became a profit center for financial institutions. This led to the institutionalization of volatility as a market opportunity. Financial institutions actually sought volatility in the system to provide a continuous profit stream.

Creative accounting, whose peculiar logic evolved from structured finance, also made the traditional debt/equity ratio immaterial. Ways were devised for the large market participants to structure debt as hedges, through swaps that avoided taxes and balance-sheet liabilities. Swaps enabled borrowers legally to book loan proceeds as current operating income and loan liabilities as future capital expenditure that could be kept off the balance sheet, inflating current earnings. Circular counterparty risks suddenly became neutralized risk, and cash flow from swaps became net revenue. These practices are now known as Enronitis.

On the macro level, the global finance game has become a sure win for those who use dollars, especially those whose government issues dollars by fiat. The world market has become a place where the United States makes dollars and the rest of the world makes what dollars can buy. But after the Asian financial crisis of 1997, the whole world essentially adopted dollarization, if not directly, at least through hedges, albeit sometimes at prohibitive cost.

At that point, the US economy suddenly began to lose its exclusive dollar hegemony advantage because US entities were no longer the only ones with access to dollars nor could US transnationals avoid non-dollar revenue. To maintain the "strong dollar" monetary policy instituted by US treasury secretary Robert Rubin at the beginning of the Bill Clinton presidency, the US Federal Reserve progressively tightened dollar money supply throughout most of the 1990s. But this did not slow the US economy because structured finance permitted debt to expand without a corresponding expansion of equity. A strong dollar gave the US economy a boom in low-cost imports, while the US trade deficit merely forced foreign exporters to hold dollar reserves to finance the US debt bubble through a US capital account surplus. Japan did this for a whole decade, pushing its own economy into permanent recession while its dollar reserves mounted. Mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan took up the slack from Japan by 1995 and the three Chinese economies together now hold more dollar reserves than Japan does. China, starved for capital for domestic development, thus finds itself stuck with US$200 billion in US Treasury bills that pay 5 percent while it is forced to offer foreign direct investment high double-digit returns. The annual interest gap alone is in excess of $20 billion, which amounts to half of China's current annual foreign-capital inflow.

Growth in the 1990s came from a structural shift of the US economy from industrial capitalism to finance capitalism. Through financial globalization, the US shifted labor intensive manufacturing off US soil to low-wage locations, thus lowering the cost of manufactured products. Financial products and services and intellectual property valuation constituted most of the growth, making the US a consumer market of last resort for the whole world. London, Frankfurt, Paris, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore became financial outposts of New York, sucking up dollar reserves to support the US debt bubble.

This game is ending, as the US consumer market becomes saturated and condemned to low single-digit growth, regardless of business cycles. The wealth effect from a tripling of equity value did not double consumption in the US, because aggregate demand is constrained by a widening income disparity. The rich have bought all the manufactured products they need and the working poor cannot afford to buy all they want. The wealth effect did double investment globally, reflected in the phenomenal rise in market capitalization of US transnationals and financial institutions, particularly in the so-called New Economy. The competition for credit favored double-digit growth markets in the developing countries, but the US continued to dominate global finance through its sophistication and innovation in finance and through dollar hegemony.

The problem is that all unregulated markets eventually self-destruct. Weak competitors are naturally forced off the market, leading to monopolies that are the result of market failure of competition. Yet regulation cannot cure the problem preemptively because remedial regulation only makes sense after disasters, never before.

There is increasing evidence that the real threat to China is not democracy or the market economy per se but the peculiar US version of these institutions. The 19th-century industrial capitalism that Marx observed no longer exists. Finance capitalism is a system in which capital is only a notional value upon which to build a gigantic mountain of hidden debt. Representative democracy and unregulated market fundamentalism in the US mode now work as legalized constitutional devices to disfranchise the poor and weak, both locally and globally.

Greenspan acknowledged this in his semiannual monetary policy report to the US Congress, before the Committee on Financial Services on February 27: "From one perspective, the ever-increasing proportion of our GDP [gross domestic product] that represents conceptual as distinct from physical value-added may actually have lessened cyclical volatility. In particular, the fact that concepts cannot be held as inventories means a greater share of GDP is not subject to a type of dynamics that amplifies cyclical swings. But an economy in which concepts form an important share of valuation has its own vulnerabilities." He was of course referring to Enronitis.

Greenspan's observation about the vulnerabilities of conceptual valuation was on target, although his warning of vulnerability was disproportionately misplaced. Even after the Enron and Global Crossing controversies, Greenspan continues to resist regulation, preferring to rely on market discipline. The risk is much higher than he admits.

Past records do not reliably project future vulnerability risk. Any risk manager knows that accidents are always waiting to happen. The fact that it has not happened in the past does not mean it will not happen in the future. In fact, with each passing day without an accident, the risk of borrowed time increases. Low probability is only a source of comfort if the impact is not fatal.

Also, what Greenspan did not say, but admitted by implication, was that finance capitalism is operating with less and less reliance on capital. Capital has become a notional value in structured finance. Credit is no longer anchored by equity but by circular hedges. Debt-to-equity ratio is no longer a relevant consideration. Practically all US major businesses nowadays, with their high debt leverage, would have negative real equity if the price/earning (P/E) ratio were to return to historical norms. Blue chips are being shut out of the unsecured short-term commercial paper market. Corporate credit ratings are inflated by exorbitant market capitalization value, which in turn reflects irrational P/E ratios. Even now, during what many on Wall Street contend to be a savage bear market, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index yields 25 times earnings. It would have to fall by another 41 percent to reach the median valuation prevailing since 1957.

Such a decline can happen in a period of days in this age of program trading and socialized risk, even with circuit breakers and trading curbs. When that happens, structured finance will be a sea of dead and wounded in counterparty casualties, regardless of who won and who lost.

Henry C K Liu is chairman of the New York-based Liu Investment Group.

nickel62Sorry Belgian #7262104/03/02; 09:01:08

I should have address the last post to Cavan
nickel62Truthcaster Motive?#7262204/03/02; 09:14:32

Your stocks that you were so concerned about an hour ago are now recovering nicely...the canadian gold Glamis is now down only a penny or two and Newmont is now off only 55 cents. Coure De Lane CDE is still of 2 cents and GOld is now off almost 37 cents WOW! Thanks for warning us about that disaster!
PippinWSJ: questionning the books#7262304/03/02; 09:20:40

Found an interesting article in the electronic version of the Wall Street Journal with the subject "questionning the books".
Till now, I ignored that this type of investigations had already been started years ago, leading to surprising discoveries :

<<On Monday, Xerox Corp. disclosed that it will pay a $10 million civil penalty and restate four years of earnings after a more than two-year investigation into the company's accounting. The fine is the largest ever levied by the agency against a public firm in connection with financial-reporting violations.>>

So this is not an entirely <new> problem. A two-year investigation does not look like normal auditing.

Restate four years of earnings!
I wonder what will happen if the SEC demonstrates that dividends paid to shareholders were exxagerated. Ask the shareholders to give them back :-) ?
Could this have a tax-related aspect? Because tax are paid on earnings and/or dividends in most countries. So if earnings were over-started, undue taxes were also paid...

One day, maybe, one will discover that cheating took place in the gold market-related accounting also...

Mr GreshamLiu: China & WTO#7262404/03/02; 10:23:57

Here's a Henry Liu re-post on the longwaves forum...
Mr GreshamLiu: Military Keynesianism#7262504/03/02; 10:29:10

Hope you don't mind if I stick this (kinda long) up here for later reading -- I think I like this guy...
R Powell(No Subject)#7262604/03/02; 10:42:31

Truthcaster and nickel62, please reread yesterday's posts 72561 from The Stranger and 72579 from Pizz. They should give some comfort and calm your nerves.

GR2, hello, does the Connecticut River flow through that "happy valley" you refered to? I agree that the POG has entered and can sustain a long term bull phase without any major crisis. Many of the underlying potential crisis causing problems you refered are fundamental reasons supporting a higher POG but can do so just by their existence, their potential to cause crisis. Hopefully, most will be defused over time. A much higher POG is actually the solution to some of these, no?

YGM, good to hear from you again. Even when you left to work (driving heavy equipment?) for wages I thought that the lure of a substantial strike would be with you. May the force be with you when you resume the search!

Mr GreshamO Little Town of Bethlehem#7262704/03/02; 11:31:10

"Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem Michel Sabbah offered sanctuary to Palestinian militants in Bethlehem's Church of the Nativity."

I've been. Very tiny place.

"A tank was stationed Wednesday at the edge of Manger Square, adjacent to the church."

David and Goliath. Roles claarly reversed.

Un-self-conscious arrogance.

Something not quite right here.

Including dumb moves on the chessboard of international relations -- and religions. Shooting yourself in the rear end. "Hey -- let's blow up EVERYONE'S religious icons while we're at it!" (Look what happened to the Taliban after they blew up those Buddhist statues.)

Bush and Sharon. Dumb and dumber. Can't these guys hire better advisors? Or, do they just not listen to the ones they already have?

I'm tryin' to get some work done today. Do I have to come down there and knock some heads together? That's what we hired YOU to do, Georgie. Tail wags dog again, don' look too good...

uponroof'The American Advisor'#7262804/03/02; 11:36:44

Just listened to their 12:30 report:

"...Gold beaten down today by the selling of a single large Bullion Bank. Their effort alone caused bullion to dip..."
* * * *


If this doean't illustrate the desperation nothing does. 305 POG is NOTHING in historical terms!!!! But apparently it is something to be fiercly defended today thanks to a failed manipulation policy.

Don't know if this is related but just read that the Swiss were now selling 'only' 1/2 tonne per day, while up until recently they were selling 3/4 to 1 tonne per day. Perhaps they've increased selling today to make up for the reduced amounts of late. If not them, there's always the Germans to consider.

But ya know...who cares?!
Global demand will not be denied or deterred by strategic Central Bank selling. In fact, if they keep dicking around using reserves to fight a pissy little 305 mark, 'reserves' might become nothing but a memory after the dam breaks at 340.

RobotGuyBlame it on,...hmmm,...let's see,.....#7262904/03/02; 11:49:50

It seem to me that there's every excuse in the books for a downed market. Yesterday it was 'waiting on government decisions', the day before it was terrorist attacks and fear thereof, and today it's trouble in the mid-east and worries associated. When the markets are slightly up, they're "Soaring!" "Cruising" "Blasting off" "ripping through the ceiling" and my favorite "Off the canvas." Positive notes on good days are solely responsible for a climbing market, and positive notes on bad days are conveniently weighted to appear not so special. Why is it that the Japanese stock market can have a good day in all this terrible mid-east stuff that's drowning the North-American markets? Are the Japanese not affected by goings on in the middle-east, or do we merely need to find an excuse for a failing market?
How hard will it be for Alan Greenspan to swallow his tongue and admit to the public, 'oops we were wrong, we're not in recovery mode after all,.. teeheeheee. Hope you can forgive us for dipping into your civil servant retirement funds, and driving us deeper into the abyss.'
What happens to all of those poor souls who spend money on government bonds and hope to see thier money in thirty years,.. and oops, we spent that too, didn't we tell you?... Sorry.
This whole speil is like me and credit. I used to make more when there was more work, so I don't mind using a little credit, cause I know I'll make more when it gets busy again, and I can maintain my luxurious lifestyle and pay for it next year,.. or the year after,... or the year after. Soon my credit company says hmmmm,.. we've been looking at you're income lately and we feel you owe too much, so we're going to stop allowing you to utilize your credit for awhile. Sound familiar? Congress,... raise debt ceiling?? What can I do as an individual? Go to the bank and take out the money I was earning interest on and repay my creditors. If necessary, I could dip into my retirement savings. Government? Same Same. Or should we say Shame Shame. The only difference between individuals and government, is that individuals must come clean in one lifetime, governments screw up many lifetimes.
Where do we go for more money after depleting retirement savings? More Debt? Who's going to vote for you next time?

If you read anything in this post, read this line first and you'll understand everything above - - - Blah Blah Blah

Sometimes I just write.


YGMR Powell (04/03/02; 10:42:31MT - msg#: 72626)#7263004/03/02; 11:54:33

Thanks ......(FOA & Another still "MIA" & Missed!)

It's very nice to be back among the friendlies....YGM

Missing FOA alot tho! Actually hoped to see some comments by old friend Another by this time. They must both be very busy because any slights given them by obnoxious posters in the past are long forgotten along with the posters who spoke them.....C'mon back gentlemen and share your thoughts again......

Old YellerWhat's up with gold?#7263104/03/02; 12:40:09

Mr Greshamuponroof, RobotGuy, R Powell#7263204/03/02; 12:46:02

uponroof -- my thoughts exactly! only possible "why" is: because they're already insolvent at certain higher prices, so might as well defend it, play for time, and hope for a miracle. I guess we'll find out some day.

RobotGuy -- that's what I always wonder when I hear those "traders were concerned about blah blah today" -- does anyone actually go around and ask the guys putting in sell orders what they're thinking. No! You know that doesn't happen. No one calls the investors with a daily opinion survey (I don't know why not, if they really wanted to lend credibility to these blatant fabrications.) No, some reporter knows all he has to do is pick something else off the wire and put it together with the market direction and a boilerplate paragraph and get his hourly blah-blah filed. I mean, how wrong am I here?

R Powell -- Methinks our friend GR2 has a little shack in Hadley down 'tween the river and the potato fields, and grows his own favorite 'baccy nearby. Ever do the canoe trip?

HipplebeckTo all my friends on the forum#7263304/03/02; 13:31:50

It appears to me that there are many wealthy people in the Middle East who are divesting themselves of US stocks and putting their wealth somewhere else. I say this because I want any of you that are in the stock market to think seriously about this. I don't think the market is going up any time soon. I don't know about gold mining companies, but I personally think it is much better to have the physical in hand anyway. I never have understood how someone who wants truth and justice in the markets could play the paper game anyway. The way derivatives work, if everyone just played with paper, it wouldn't matter how much gold was out there. It only has an effect on price if people actually buy the metal. No matter how much a gold mining stock goes up, it is completely irrelavent if someone is not actually buying gold. Think about it, what if all these folks who think they have so much more leverage with gold stocks never bought gold itself. Gold stocks will only hold higher levels if someone is actually buying gold.
Now I am not giving investment advice, because I am not a professional, and it may be that there is quite a bit of selling of stocks because it is almost April 15 and people need the money to pay their taxes like a couple of years ago, but I believe that the USA is on the worlds sh#tlist these days, and in my opinion rightly so. We all know the dollar is overpriced, accounting is a lie, etc. It may be that the Middle East war is giving a lot of people the push they have needed to reevaluate where they are invested.
Just my humble opinion

SiochainA view of what is happening#7263404/03/02; 13:49:59

Dow Jones Newswire

Tokyo April 3 After breaking through the key $305anounces resistance level overnight in New York, gold could shoot for $325 and then $350m said John H. Mesrobian, president of Virginia based Constantinople Advisors.

"Many hedgers, bullion banks and shorts are exposed to gold breaking above $305. Gold taking out this level will put these bullion banks and hedgers in a panic, for their positions will be under water. In the end these shorts will have to cover and they will cause some spikes along the way", he told Dow Jones newswire in a recent interview.

Mesrobian said Constantinople Advisors, which advises corporate and individual investors on currencies, sovereign bonds, gold and other commodities, has issued a "multiple spike alert" for the gold market.

"Gold could see a $25 to $50 move at any time in these unstable political times. We have problems in the Middle East, Afghanistan, Pakistan and other places," he said.

Mesrobian is also predicting a further rise in oil prices, which could help gold as these two commodities have historically moved in step

"We expect to push through $30 or $32 a barrel based on the current state of the markets and other conditions. We would add that if there is a war or if (Yassaar) Arafat is killed, then oil prices will shoot much higher, even past the $40 mark," he said.

Mesrobian sees a strong appetite for bullion in the Asian region, especially among Japanese investors.

"As the yen continues to weaken you will see the Japanese buying more gold. Watch the Y147.50 area. If the yen breaches this level it will drop a lot more, and then watch the gold market," he said.

"We were told over a year ago by a well known Japanese investor that the Japanese will give up on both the yen and the dollar at some point and start buying more gold. This move will be slow at first and then speed up." Mesrobian said.

Siochain...What we are seeing now is one of those spikes ...though TPTB seek to get above should be quite a battle for a little longer...though the war has been won's just a matter of time and circumstance

RobotGuyMr. Gresham - - - Hipplebeck#7263504/03/02; 14:01:52

Thank-you Mr. Gresham, you said exactly what I was trying to say.

Hipplebeck, I do own gold, and my measly purchase of a little more isn't going to inspire the POG, but I do also own gold stocks. What you are saying is very legitimate, and those types of thougts go through my mind every day when I look at my portfolio and think about withdrawing my money and dumping it all into physical gold. There are a few things however in the back of my mind that keep telling me that if and when there is a real run-up, people won't be able to buy physical fast enough. Once everyone who is a long term investor has accumulated the world supply, we must rely on newfound sources ie. mining companies. Most people who purchase gold will look at historical prices and determine when they will sell for a quick buck, and that will cause the market to roll for quite some time, but eventually those who want to keep it for stability will get a hold of it and we're going to have to start looking at mother earth for what's left. That my friend is precisely why I continue to hold stocks in mining companies with little or no obligations or debts, and proven in ground resources,.. even gold exploration companies. Don't get me wrong, a fast buck is very appealing, but I'm starting slowly to get it through my thick head that a fast buck is much harder to find now more than ever. In my opinion the most important thing for the benefit of gold or any PM is that it gets divided into many hands and I think we're seeing that these days alas.

Black BladeSEC accounting probe broadens #7263604/03/02; 14:23:26

Investigation of irregularities targets some of largest U.S. firms


April 3 — The Securities and Exchange Commission is looking into accounting methods at some of the nation's largest companies, broadening the scope of its inquiry beyond the accounting issues raised by the collapse of Enron Corp. to include a laundry list of other potential accounting abuses.

Black Blade: The "toothless tiger" – the SEC appears to have found some courage and is finally doing its job investigating accounting irregularities. We may see several Enrons come to light.

Black BladeOptions-Expense Bill Meets Opposition#7263704/03/02; 14:31:19


A bill to force companies to treat employee stock options as an expense faces opposition in House and Senate tax committees, and from a countermeasure offered by a Senate committee chairman.

House Ways and Means Chairman William M. Thomas, a Bakersfield Republican who oversees tax legislation, opposes a bill sponsored by Michigan Democrat Sen. Carl Levin and Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain that would force firms to report options as corporate expenses and deduct them from income. So does Thomas' counterpart in the Senate, Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus of Montana.

Black Blade: There are many Senators and Congressmen who oppose ethics and honesty – gee, go figure. Just another sign of the times.

RobotGuySaddam - - - Boosts Martyr payments#7263804/03/02; 14:36:47


NABLUS, West Bank April 3 — Saddam Hussein has increased money for the relatives of suicide bombers from $10,000 to $25,000, drawing sharp criticism from Washington. But Palestinians say the bombers are driven by a priceless thirst for revenge, religious zeal and dreams of glory not greed.

Since Iraq upped its payments last month, 12 suicide bombers have successfully struck inside Israel, including one man who killed 25 Israelis, many of them elderly, as they sat down to a meal at a hotel to celebrate the Jewish holiday of Passover. The families of three suicide bombers said they have recently received payments of $25,000.

The devout Muslims among the bombers, a majority, believe they will go to heaven as martyrs and spend eternity in the company of 72 virgins. In grainy farewell home videos, they often read passages from the Muslim holy book, the Quran, and praise God. Secular attackers know that after the deed, their families will win the adulation of friends, neighbors and strangers.

The other motive seems to be a strong yearning for revenge. Relatives of many of the bombers recall how many of the young men's formative years were spent in Israeli jails. The mother of one bomber said her son once watched Israeli soldiers beating his father.

Mahmoud Safi, leader of a pro-Iraqi Palestinian group, the Arab Liberation Front, acknowledged that the support payments for relatives make it easier for some potential bombers to make up their minds. "Some people stop me on the street, saying if you increase the payment to $50,000 I'll do it immediately," Safi said. He also suggested such remarks were made mostly in jest.

Saddam has said the Palestinians need weapons and money instead of peace proposals and has provided payments throughout a year and a half of Israeli-Palestinian battles. "I saw on Iraqi TV President Saddam saying he will continue supporting the (uprising) even if it means selling his own clothes," said Safi.

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said Saddam's payments inspire a "culture of political murder."

"Here is an individual who is the head of a country, Iraq, who has proudly, publicly made a decision to go out and actively promote and finance human sacrifice for families that will have their youngsters kill innocent men, women and children," Rumsfeld said Wednesday.

But Saddam is not the only one giving money. Charities from Saudi Arabia and Qatar both U.S. allies pay money to families of Palestinians killed in the fighting, including suicide bombers.

The mother of Jamal Nasser, a 23-year-old architecture student who died trying to ram an explosives-laden car into a bus carrying Jewish settlers, said she received a check for $10,000 from Iraq and another for $5,000 from Saudi Arabia. She said she plans to put the money toward buying an apartment. She wants to move her family from the small place they've been renting for more than 20 years. The money she received is about half the cost of a small apartment in Nablus.

Fifty-five Palestinians have blown themselves up in attacks on Israeli civilians in the past 18 months of fighting.

Under the new Iraqi payscale, decided on March 12 during an Arab conference in Baghdad, the families of gunmen and others who die fighting the Israelis will still receive $10,000, while the relatives of suicide bombers will get $25,000.

Safi and two others from the Arab Liberation Front visit families in the northern West Bank and make the payments. "We go to every family and give them a check," he said. "We tell them that this is a gift from President Saddam and Iraq."


RobotGuy; Well, I think that might be an indication of support for terrorism. I wonder if the payments are upped if the attacks take place in the 'western world'?

Black BladeCompanies reduce hedge positions#7263904/03/02; 14:44:40


Gold's return as an investment choice has been spurred by the announcements by several large mining companies that they will reduce their hedge positions. Potential investors were pleased to hear that.

Black Blade: It makes no sense to sell forward with interest bearing investments falling flat. Also, the outlook for Gold is quite positive. World events are also positive for Gold and Energy.

Warfare in Palestine is intensifying with reports of fierce gun battles in Jenin and tanks starting to move into Nablus. Today Egypt cut off diplomatic relations with Israel. Sharon and one of his generals were overheard on an open mike discussing how they should assassinate of one of Arafats advisors. There exists the possibility that Israeli tanks may level Christian shrines in Bethlehem to get Palestinian gunmen. This mess is getting out of hand.

SiochainThe Morgans Orchestrate Gold Sell-Off Right On Cue#7264004/03/02; 15:13:13

From the cafe:
The Morgans Orchestrate Gold Sell-Off Right On Cue

The John Brimelow Report:

Indian premiums: AM $1.54, PM $ $1.19, with world gold at $305.10 and $304.90. Below legal import levels.

Today has proven quite a triumph for the predictive qualities of both the gold shares, which sold off ominously yesterday afternoon, and for MarketVane's Bullish Consensus, which finally showed exuberance, jumping last night 3 points to a dangerous 77%. Actually, Tocom gold opened firm and pushed gold up to $307 - 70 cents short of February's high. But once the active contract reached 1300 yen, a popular trading objective, a reaction set in. This was exacerbated by a marked strengthening in the yen, and by the appearance of "US bank selling" (UBS Warburg) which has continued this morning. Volume was 34,200 Comex equivalent, moderate by recent standards, and open interest fell by only 79,600 ozs, which does not suggest a major liquidation is underway.

Short term, Tocom buying is extremely yen sensitive, and a wave of complacency about the currency is on the move. However, a currency experiencing 34% monetary base growth is not going up long.


As John pointed out via the UBS Warburg comment, it was US bank selling that capped the gold rally in Japan. It was as active a gold market in Japan last night as I can recall. Gold was on the move and then The Gold Cartel showed up to do their thing again.

These crooks are most predicable and most irritating. They do get an "A" though for consistency.

Late yesterday I learned that Morgan Stanley went around during the day telling the hedge funds that the gold move was over for the time being. That is what halted the gold share move higher. Today it was JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs taking gold down on the Comex - one big happy family, the New York bullion bankers.

Of note is that Morgan Stanley has been much more visible on Comex in recent weeks compared to year's past. Over those years I have pointed out that Morgan Stanley was one of the silent cabal members. My sources tell me they have been all over the gold and silver action lately, but have here-to-fore been low-key about it.

At this time I think it might be a good idea to point out that the criminals in these firms are only a few in number and they are the very senior people. All of these corporations employ many superb people, a few are even Café members - ones interested in the financial truth like the rest of us.

Silver was stopped with gold at critical $4.75 resistance - perfect timing by the market manipulation crew.

Every day the financial news and related commentary gets more gold/silver bullish and more stock market bearish:

New York, April 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell on concern inflation will accelerate as the economy rebounds from recession, dimming the allure of fixed-rate investments.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig last night said the economy is growing faster than expected, bolstering expectations the central bank will raise interest rate by midyear to curb faster inflation.

``With the funds rate at a 40-year low, and one Fed official saying there will be inflation down the road, that suggests the Fed is going to raise rates,'' said George Adell, director of fixed-income research at Philadelphia-based Starboard Capital Markets. He expects the Fed to boost its rate target as much as 1.25 percentage points to 3 percent by the end of the year.

SiochainAlso a comment re yesterday's last hour#7264104/03/02; 15:22:03

From cafe
From savvy Jim Puplava

There was unusual activity in the gold share markets today. As the price of oil, natural gas, gold and silver moved up so did share prices. Then during the final hour of trading an unusual pattern developed. Gold and silver bullion prices rose while share prices fell. I watched daily money flows on several key stocks. The big ones first. Then there appeared to be a big sell-off in all the major shares. This seemed unusual in that the metals price was rising. Oil and natural gas, and oil service shares rose along with defense stocks which we own. The only unusual pattern was in the metals shares. They may now become the new target for the cabal. The momentum crowd would not have been selling on a day like this. So somebody(just guessing) triggered the sell-off which got picked up by the radar screens of day traders. Then stocks sold off.

With all of the publicity that gold and silver shares have been getting lately the last thing they want is for John Q. Public to start buying gold and silver mining shares. I own 4 percent of a junior mining company and will take that interest higher in the next week. I know that when the shares hit $1.50 my market maker told me that Charles Schwab sold the shares short. Now those shares are over $2. Today my market maker was telling me Schwab was shorting the stock. This company is owned by very strong hands. All of us who own it are long-term holders of the shares. So I don't know where Schwab is going to get the shares to cover their position. The shares are thinly traded on the Toronto and on the Nasdaq. They are going to get squeezed. The last block I bought was from a hedge fund that had gotten itself in trouble. They were trying to sell the only thing they had that was up which was their mining shares. This is how I'm picking up my next block position.

Anyway I thought I would just mention today's action in the precious metals shares because it was so unusual. It didn't add up. There was no sector rotation taking place that would have caused the momentum crowd to exit their shares. I think the cabal is looking at the precious metals stocks as well. It is tough to explain many of the juniors stocks are up over 100 percent since January. The HUI is up over 47 percent YTD and up close to 100 % over the last 52 weeks. Gold shares were the best performing sector last year and the best performing sector during the first quarter. This should be front page news everyday but it isn't outside CBS's Tom Calandra.

All The Best
Jim Puplava

Sierra MadreSiochain: about Puplava's view of yesterday's sell-off of gold stocks#7264204/03/02; 15:31:06

I said exactly the same thing yesterday.

After so many years in this, one develops a sort of intuition about these matters. Sometimes it is wrong, of course.

The price of gold - actually, the price of the dollar in gold would be a more correct expression - is in an established up-trend. This is not going to be changed by manipulation. The bullion banks are fighting a rear-guard action, in retreat - the hardest of military exercises, by the way.

"They're on the run, boys!"


segel_fliegerSlope collapse at Betze Mine#7264304/03/02; 15:39:36

I read the post here about a week ago concerning the slope collapse at the Betze Mine. What was puzzling about it was the reference to the Deep Post Mine in a context that suggested it belonged to Barrick. I seemed to remember that mine as being owned by Newmont, so I just did a little checking on Newmont's web site. For what it's worth you can read the Newmont side of the story, (link above). At any rate, it doesn't sound as if there is any problem with production at the Deep Post Mine. Sounds like a misunderstanding to me?

Click on "general", then look for the articles;

9/5/2001 Newmont's Deep Post Mine Reopened
8/29/2001 Slope Movement Occurs at Nevada Mine

nickel62segel_flieger Thanks for your help#7264404/03/02; 15:50:56

I did not realize that the Deep Post deposit was on the Newmont part of the property. Thank you for the information.
USAGOLDBlack Blade, Siochain. . . .ALL#7264504/03/02; 16:34:36

Something interesting is going on in the overall gold derivatives' positions. The top three U.S. gold bullion banks' positions fell from $73.2 billion in Dec00 to $48.9 billion in Dec01 reflecting the overall reduction in the gold carry trade positions over the course of 2001. John Doody (Gold Stock Analyst) says "recent CB efforts, overt and covert, are designed to keep a short-term lid on gold's price, effectively 'holding the door open' for the commercial banks to get positions squared, or get out all together. If one of these major banks was to require rescue by the Fed or the German or UK Central Bank, it would be far more damaging to world economies, and the rescue more costly, than to keep a lid on gold and allow the big commercial banks get out with survivable losses."

Taking a closer look at the Gold Derivatives Table published at the News & Views page (linked above), one can see that most of the reduction has occurred at J.P. Morgan which went from $30.5 billion 12/00 to $7.3 billion 12/01. I find this very interesting. That makes two out of the big three American gold derivatives' players showing a reduction to the $7 billion level.

Is it now Chase's turn in 2002 to move to the $7 billion level?

I think Doody's right. There holding the door open with derivatives in order to exit their carry trade positions or get the losses to a manageable level -- a workout as we have described many times before. And Chase may be the last to squeak through before the gold demand slams it shut.

This is the best evidence available why gold might be ready to explode. It's like holding a spring with your foot -- when you let go you'd better get out of the way.

Everywhere you look in gold's numbers -- derivatives, the LBMA, etc -- the numbers are telling us that the gold carry trade and mine lending are being unwound.

This is one of the most solid indicators I've seen in a long while why the knights and ladies at this Table might take heart - - Nay, not just take heart, but tip their flagons in celebration.

The battle is being carried, the war won.

TownCrierHEADLINE: Gold hovers near two-month high mark #7264604/03/02; 16:55:26

(Reuters April 04 2002)
London - Gold markets shadowed their strongest level in two months yesterday as Israel widened its assault in the West Bank and traders predicted further price gains.

Gold is just shy of its firmest level in two years, when it touched $309 in spot markets on February 17 2000.

"While tensions remain elevated in the Middle East and the lack of selling continues, gold looks set to make fresh gains," said John Reade, metals analyst at UBS Warburg.

Knowing what technical trade can do to a market once it nudges past long term resistance, you'll want to establish your position in metal. When push comes to shove and liquidity tightness precipitates a whole new ballgame, you will be glad you were proactive rather than reactive.


TownCrierTRUE ON MANY LEVELS: "You know going in, it takes awhile to change people's habits."#7264704/03/02; 17:18:50

HEADLINE: US Mint suspends production of dollar coins

By Jonathan Nicholson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Only a few years after their introduction, the U.S. Mint has suspended production of "golden" dollar coins for commercial use and said it will evaluate its need to produce them next year.

The move came to light with the recent release of a Treasury Inspector General's report that urged a production halt to save money.

"We are not currently producing circulating golden dollars," Mike White, spokesman for the U.S. Mint, said on Wednesday.

Rep. Michael Castle, the Delaware Republican who sponsored the legislation creating a new dollar coin, said the coin's problems are due to its lack of use commercially.

White also said the coin is finding acceptance for uses such as in vending machines and for urban subway systems, but the Mint knew it had a tough job when it introduced the coin.

"You know going in, it takes awhile to change people's habits," White said.

Widespread public attention in America to such "revolutionary concepts" as prudent gold diversifaction can require a long trip down the runway before taking wing, skyward. It happened in Japan, it will happen here. There's nothing quite like the sinking feeling of being caught out of a good thing to motivate the next wave of buyers. Unlike stocks, new "shares" of gold metal can't be suddenly registered for distribution out of thin air to satisfy investor demand and to further allow the corporation to capitalize on the newfound interest.

Only gold in metal form has the beneficial qualities that have through the long ages been attributed to gold. Think about it...


segel_fliegerJim Grant - bullish on Gold#7264804/03/02; 17:25:41

On a related note, thanks to the person(s) who recently posted about Louis Rukeyser being canned by WSW/MPT. The show really had become a bit of joke from a journalistic perspective. I must admit though, I did watch it from time to time. But mainly as a substitute for the funny pages. I figured that if the "elves" or whatever they were called should ever turn bearish, it might be a sign that the stock market was finally bottoming.

Anyhow, I tuned in last friday based on the news here that LR had been given the boot. The show was hosted by Marshall Loeb (sp?) and one of the guests was none other that Jim Grant, the king of the "Bond Vigilantes". I don't remember his exact words, but his comments on the markets went something like; "Unlike some people, I don't have much confidence in the central banks. I'm very bullish on Gold, which is much like the opposite of the central banks." I had known long ago that Jim was bullish on Gold, but it was sure nice to see it said on WSW without some security guards appearing on camera to take him away. (Given that LR always went out of his way to ridicule Gold on virtually every show, I'll bet he was enraged by that if he was watching).

In what little "mainstream" press that I follow, I have noticed that Gold has been mentioned more and more lately, and sometimes with a positive tone. My take is that this is NOT a coincidence. It suggests (to me) that a big move in gold is coming and the only question is when? Many people who own(ed) stocks feel betrayed by Wall Street for having been mauled by Mr. Bear when they were told to just close their eyes and hold on. For a megabull market in Gold to appear without ANY warning at all from the GE Capital Channel and the rest of the puppet press would only add to the growing distrust of Wall Street. Just my 0.02/35 oz of gold...

YGMBlack Blade#7264904/03/02; 17:51:35

Your Post....

USAGOLD (04/03/02; 16:34:36MT - msg#: 72645)
Black Blade, Siochain. . . .ALL

---Is the best news yet. Proves the rats are abandoning ship. This is the most concrete evidence yet that "THIS TIME IT'S DIFFERENT"...Thanks much...YGM.

YGMSorry Michael..#7265004/03/02; 17:55:20

That was a USA Gold Post...

But love those BB Posts nontheless :0)
Black BladeMk, Siochain,…All#7265104/03/02; 17:56:25

MK – Thank you for that information on the Gold derivatives positions held by these banks. That certainly is a Bullish signal. I haven't checked for a while, though I believe that total derivatives positions for these banks were a staggering $47 Trillion (with JP Morgan Chase holding the lion's share – roughly $29 Trillion). I would wonder if they are trying to extricate themselves from those positions as well. If not, then we would know that they feel extremely vulnerable with these Gold derivatives – an extremely Bullish signal.

Siochain – I think that Jim Puplava may be on to something. After several years of keeping a cap on Gold prices, institutions may be looking for a new means to keep Gold prices under control. Most unhedged miners are held closely so short sales of these mining shares may be short lived, however, the price of larger mega-hedger shares may feel the pain as investors in those shares are not as passionate about Gold as a store of value or as an alternative currency.

Recent large scale selling of US government paper and the sell off on Wall Street can be partly attributed to Japanese institutions and investors selling. There is circumstantial evidence that this cash is being repatriated for propping up domestic markets and paying off debt. For years Japanese investors has kept cash in US based investments as interest rates fell to zero and domestic markets crumbled. Now much of that cash parked in US investments may be coming home. The result is that the withdrawal of this foreign investment and lack of fresh investing from domestic sources has caused the US markets to pull back. Also, a daily listing of earnings warnings, restated earnings, accounting scandals and numerous new SEC probes appear to have cooled the urge to invest.

- Black Blade

R PowellAssorted thoughts#7265204/03/02; 18:11:30

Even with the down day in both mining stocks and metals' prices, gold still received more bubblevision attention again today- charts included.
Why do I now have the feeling that down days like today are just the normal down days that every bull market contains. I even took advantage of silver's 8 cent decline, a trick I learned from the 1990's, buy the dips!
From today's IBD, open interest numbers
Gold 150,180 +3,200
Silver 78,356 +931
I view increasing open interest in a price rising market as a sign of strength. I expect to see some decline in these numbers tomorrow after today's decline but this is to be expected now and then, no?
Now that the March 27-31 time has passed, I guess we can say Arch Crawford correctly called the SM downturn but I guess we should say his "market meltdown" prediction was a little overstated. Interesting also was commentary today by the CNBC regulars that volume was very light and the market down due to a noticeable lack of buyers rather than excessive selling. This reminds me of similar comments used to describe "market meltdowns", like 1929 when "there were no buyers!" The CNBC analysts were also concerned that they could not identify any sector rotation. There was no noticeable buying anywhere. Stocks, bonds and commodities were all down. Where did the money go?? Something is not right seemed to be the unspoken thought.
Interesting times.

Black BladeUS natural gas production decline accelerating#7265304/03/02; 18:43:08


HOUSTON, Apr. 3 -- US natural gas production is on the decline, and the decline is accelerating rapidly, according to preliminary results of a Raymond James & Associates Inc. first quarter survey of 30 of the largest US natural gas producers. Supply is declining much faster than most analysts expected, Andrews said. US gas production trends generally lag the rig count by 3-6 months, but last year, US gas production began showing declines before drilling activity peaked in July.

Producers were drilling wells that they could bring on production quickly at high flow rates. With activity on these types of prospects now halted, production from high-flow-projects likely will be down by 30-40% this year, he projected. "As a result, sequential production declines should continue to gain momentum as the year progresses, and we continue to believe that US natural gas production could be down by as much as 5-6% this summer on a year-over-year basis," Andrews said.

Black Blade: as I have been reporting here for the last several months. It should also be noted that withdrawal rates have more than doubled over last year's rates. This situation may become more critical as the drought on the east coast and other regions deprives hydroelectric facilities of needed water flows. Also, recent boric acid corrosion in nuclear reactors will require extended maintenance and shutdown. Pending legislation on clean-air proposals and a lack of new carbon credits may restrict coal-fired power production. The higher costs of oil and natural gas will sink straight to the bottom line. In short – scratch one US economic recovery for 2002-2003.

USAGOLDAll. . .Drifting through Internet Channels. . . .#7265404/03/02; 19:54:16

Every once in awhile I go to various bookmarks and see what's happening in the internet world. Tonight's journey revealed USAGOLD posters appearing as quotable items (and in some cases highly visible) at various websites. Here is where the foundational thinking is being done and subsequently quoted elsewhere. This is not intended as a swipe at anyone else. . . long may all the gold web sites live in cyberspace, but it is here where the ground is being broken -- THE LEADERSHIP PROVIDED.

My thanks to all the top-notch who have decided to make this place their place -- the knights and ladies of this Table Round. It does us proud to see so many of you quoted at so many different places nearly every day.

God bless you, all of you.

And let me at the same time invite anyone -- no matter where you post now -- to come here and help us move the cause forward.
You'll find the welcome mat rolled out -- you'll find a place where you'll be read.

WaveriderR Powell: Where did the $$ go?#7265504/03/02; 20:55:22

Here's a thought Rich...apparently the Arabs have approximately $2.4 trillion expatriated dollars. Every day the ME mess escalates and the probability of regional full scale war grows greater, as does justification for a US invasion of Iraq. One could debate the political pros and cons and probability of these issues, but the point is this...fear. And we know fear and confidence drive the markets. Now...if I were an Arab...particularly if I were a scared Arab...scared of what Saddam might do...scared of what the US might do...scared of the implications of regional escalation...would I be leaving my fiat in the USA, or would I be repatriating my money? I know what I'd do...hence no sector rotation today?

Trading volume was about 1.2 billion shares on the DOW, and about 1.7 billion on the Nasdaq...hmmm..light trading they say? Interesting times indeed! Cheers,


Black BladePuplava Market Wrap Up#7265604/03/02; 21:08:43

A Crisis of Confidence


There are many famous quotes that describe today's economic and financial environment. Perhaps you have heard of many of them. The obvious one is "Figures lie and liars figure." Winston Churchill once said, "There are a terrible lot of lies going around the world, and the worst of it is half of them are true." There is even a book out by there called, How to Lie With Statistics by Darrell Huff. Unfortunately, we live at a time when numbers, facts, and statistics can no longer be taken at face value, especially today when looking at economic and financial numbers. It doesn't matter whether you are looking at economic or earnings reports coming from corporations and Wall Street analysts. A crisis of confidence or a lack of trust in our government and financial institutions is the number one crisis now facing the financial markets.



Another example of this malarkey is the way the unemployment numbers are reported. Last month the government reported the unemployment rate fell in February from 5.6% in January to 5.5% in February. Those numbers are seasonally adjusted (manipulated). This number surprised the financial markets helping to trigger a rally in stocks as another sign the economy was improving. This lower unemployment report stood in stark contrast to daily headlines of continual job cuts being announced by major corporations. The actual numbers unadjusted portrayed a different picture.

Black Blade: Amen Brother!!! As I have been pounding on these points for some time. Also not that Jim Puplava tackles the obscene options issue that is defended by unethical deceptive politicians such as Sen. Lieberman (D-CT). And the Trolls on CNBC are wondering why trading volume is so light these days. Hmmm...

This is a very good article that nails it! We do definitely live in "Interesting Times".

JACall for return of posters of past years#7265704/03/02; 21:12:14


I rarely post, but have followed this site for years. Over the years there have been a number of posters whose contributions I have greatly valued. Because of such contributors I feel my knowledge and understanding of Gold and how it relates to the financial markets has been enhanced. I am appreciative of their efforts. While you have many great posters at this site currently, a number of the great posters of the past seem to have disappeared. Some days I feel like Black Blade is holding back the villains that would storm the Castle single handedly. He is very capable but your post (#72654) where you throw out an invitation to new knights and Ladies of the Round Table, got me to wondering whatever happened to some of the very strong contributors of past years. Do they no longer visit the site? Did they give up on this ongoing battle over gold? Or are they still around and just tired of posting?

I suggest you call a reunion or do a roll call to see if you can get some of those great posters of the past to give us an accounting of their wellbeing and current thoughts on gold.

I know it is a mistake to try to name them because many valuable contributors will be overlooked. However I will name just a few that come to mind anyway:

Aragorn III
The Stranger
Steve H
Gandalf the White
Peter Asher
Al Fulchino
And of course FOA or Trail Guide

You might nominate a committee just like they do for high school reunions in an attempt to find those not accounted for.

Just a thought

WaveriderMiddle East tension affects markets#7265804/03/02; 23:03:00

"The Swiss franc has risen, oil prices have strengthened and gold has climbed to its highest level in two months as violence in the Middle East continues.

Clearly, the Swiss franc has risen sharply against the euro and the US dollar in the last few days," said Hans-Peter Hausheer, a senior economist at UBS.

It's part of a historic trend, whereby gold and the Swiss franc are always considered to be safe havens by investors when there are world events that threaten to involve the US or the European Union," he added.

Waverider: Yup...if I lived in the ME I know where I would place my $$$$...

Black BladeIsrael's Military Sweeps Into Nablus#7265904/03/02; 23:22:29


BETHLEHEM, West Bank (AP) — Israeli tanks rolled into the West Bank's largest city, Nablus, on Wednesday and other troops laid siege to a refugee camp in Jenin, battling Palestinians who barricaded entrances and fought back with bombs and guns. Soldiers also encircled hundreds of Palestinian gunmen holed up in the church marking Jesus' birthplace.

Black Blade: There are reports of heavy fighting tonight in Nablus and Jenin. However, it appears that the suicide bombings have ceased (for now). Protests against the US outside embassies in Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt have erupted into violence. Saddam Hussein has increased payouts to families of suicide bombers from $10,000 to $25,000. Also, Israeli anti-war protesters are in combat with Israeli police and many Israeli reservists are refusing to appear for duty and instead going to Israeli military prison (some have signed a petition protesting the war). This war in the Middle East is likely to spread and get much worse.

Oil Embargo?

Iraq and Iran both have said they may consider an Oil Embargo. That could remove as much as 6.5 million bbl/day from the world market demand of 77 million bbl/day. That is far more than the 1.5 million bbl/day production cuts agreed to by OPEC and Non-OPEC. Even so, Saudi is the only producer capable of increasing production (about 2 to 4 million bbl/day) above pre-agreement levels.

YGMJA#726604/4/02; 00:20:27

Your previous Post....

JA (04/03/02; 21:12:14MT - msg#: 72657)
Call for return of posters of past years

FWIW... Your suggestion and thoughts are (I am sure) shared by many here. There have been so many profound & articulate posters pass thru these halls it is somewhat sad to not have the sharing of their thoughts. I have learned much here and shared a little, but what great discourse we've been privy to! If I may "I Second" your motion....YGM.

YGMSpeaking of Profound Minds/Discourse....#726614/4/02; 00:35:20

My apologies for another off topic post but thru the reading of Tom Bearden's correspondence letters one 'May' see the reality of holding some physical Gold in an ever changing and uncertain world........YGM

Footnote: Toms site contains knowledge and information most of the populace will disbelieve or choose to ignore. But be forewarned he can and does have the proofs of his statements by and large. If you said you could send pictures thru the airwaves 60 years ago you would have had few followers. An open mind has always been the key to new knowledge! We all know knowledge is the greatest wealth and weapon for survival.

Black BladeGold sets standard in Japan #726624/4/02; 01:31:20



Concern about the Japanese economy, the state of the country's banks and now unease about tensions in the Middle East are continuing to send the Japanese public to their nearest gold shop to stock up on the precious metal. "It is certainly possible that a rise in demand for gold bars in Japan raised the international price of gold in February," said Masaaki Kanno, economist At JP Morgan. "The estimated purchase of gold in January and February is only 0.2 per cent of annual savings by the household sector. This implies that the impact of a change in Japanese householders' investment can be so big that it could affect the global market prices of financial assets."

But talk of a "March crisis" saw many Japanese shift their money from bank deposit accounts into gold and other assets. Gold sales were also spurred by the government's decision to lift the guarantee on bank time- deposits of more than Y10m from April 1. Although that deadline has now passed, the guarantee will be lifted from other types of bank accounts in April next year, leaving Japanese savers still fearful for their life savings. The Financial Services Agency's report on its special inspection of the banks' non-performing loans, due out this month, is likely to deepen concern about the banks.

Black Blade: Gold sales should continue to beat last years pace due to the next "April Fools Day Surprise" where deposit guarantees are rescinded for all savings deposits. Considering that there is a lot of cash sitting in insolvent Japanese banks that will seek safety before next April, we could see a lot of physical buying. Imports of Gold should increase steadily as April 2003 approaches.

Black BladeGold Aims to Recapture Its Lustre as a Safe Hedge in Troubled Times#726634/4/02; 01:40:19


However, gold has to become more than just an icon of gold bugs, conspiracy theorists and short-term speculators. Instead it needs to broaden its appeal as an asset among mainstream investors anxious to protect themselves in an increasingly uncertain financial and political environment.

Black Blade: It looks like time for a mainstream ad campaign. So where's the WGC now that the POG has made some progress? Hmmm…

Golden BearYGM (msg#: 72661) Speaking of Profound Minds/Discourse.... #726644/4/02; 02:45:53

Greetings YGM,

thank you for the link - it is brilliant. I suspect that the theories and practical applications of Tesla and others like Tom Bearden would be kept quiet (if possible) by the powers that be for reasons of weilding power over the masses and for military purposes rather than improving the conditions that everyone on this planet live by.

You are right in stating that this information would not be believed by the average person - how can it be when most academics are ignorant of it and denounce what they fail to comprehend.

Ah, the power of the internet...


Golden BearManipulation of Gold#726654/4/02; 02:54:33

Hello everyone,

About an hour ago there was a clown from Barclays on CNBC Europe stating that the manipulation of the gold market story has no merit (geez, someone conveniently chose to ignore Reg Howe's evidence and the Judge's conclusions). I only caught the last phrase of the interviewer reiterating the clown's view, but missed the bulk of the argument as put forward by him.

Did anyone catch this?

Interesting that the story is being discussed now after the ruling by the Judge - attempts to discredit the whole case? - another attempt by the cabal to divert the attention of the masses...


Black BladeChina issues first batch of 2002 silver export quotas #726664/4/02; 03:03:57


BEIJING : China issued its first batch of silver export quotas for 2002 totalling 1,260 tonnes, higher than the full amount for 2001 due to a recovery of global prices and weak domestic demand, an industry official said on Monday. China, the second largest producer behind Mexico and a major global exporter of the precious metal, issued three batches of silver quotas last year amounting to 1,180 tonnes, traders said. "This is just the first batch and we expect the government to issue more if world silver prices remain at current bullish levels," said the official.

Black Blade: "Interesting"

Black BladeIs U.S. ready for chaotic oil markets? #726674/4/02; 04:04:32

Reserve provides less import protection than it did in ’85


April 2 — As oil prices soar above $27 a barrel for the first time in six months and Saddam Hussein calls on Arab states to use oil as a weapon to punish countries supporting Israel, America's insurance policy against an import cutoff stands at less than half of what it was in 1985. The 560 million barrels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve are enough to replace about 53 days of imports. Seventeen years ago, the reserve afforded a 118-day cushion. "WE HAVE LOST substantial ground. Our level of import protection has declined dramatically," said Larry Goldstein, a veteran analyst with the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, a New York think tank.

Black Blade: Note that Bill Clinton authorized a draw down of the SPR during the last "Energy Crisis" in a failed bid to secure the presidential election for Al Gore. That oil also has not been returned. As a result the security of the nation was put in jeopardy for the sake of politics. Oil prices current hover around $27.50/bbl and Natural Gas is higher at $3.55 Mbtu.

Canuck@ Aristotle#726684/4/02; 04:09:04

We await your words of wisdom Sir.
SpartacusCentral Banking 101 Re-Visited#726694/4/02; 04:14:04

What matters is the Fed's rationale for the campaign and how it sells that rationale to the markets. By Paul A Mc Culley from Pimco.
Canuck@ BB#726704/4/02; 04:17:54

A question for you Sir.

I hold a sizeable chunk of change in an energy trust that literally fell off a cliff yesterday.

Why the sudden reversal yesterday? Oil & gas have made the same sudden spin-around as PM's.

What do you make of this? Are traders looking at a de-escalation in the ME? The non-rebound in the economy? Both? Neither?

This is really confusing.



barnacle billReg Howe - Class Action Lawsuit#726724/4/02; 04:32:06

The judge said Mr. Howe did not have standing, but that others; gold-mining companies and investors do. Personally, I have lost a lot of money on gold options sincethe manipulation began. Does this include you? How hard would it be to file a class action lawsuit? How much would a full page ad in the WSJ cost? Call it the NIGHT OF THE LIVING DEAD LAWSUIT; or JASON RETURNS-YOU CAN'T KEEP A GOOD LAWSUIT DOWN. I'll bet the WSJ would not print it. They would probably say we didn't have standing.
SpartacusIMF#726734/4/02; 04:38:36

It's Time for U.S. to Withdraw From the IMF: David DeRosa
Cavan ManBethlehem#726744/4/02; 04:43:03

200 Palestinians hold out in reputed site of Christ's nativity

The bodies of Samaya Moussa Abda (64) and her son Khalid Yakoub Isa Abda (37) were locked as if in a final embrace, sprawled against a bloody sofa on the floor of their little shop in Bethlehem's old quarter. By Peter Beaumont, in Bethlehem and Michael Jansen, in Jerusalem.

The Israeli soldiers who came to their door on Monday had been shouting through the metal door for Samaya and Khalid to open up.

When they refused, the soldiers fired 18 bullets through the door, cutting down Samaya and her son, who had collapsed and died in the gloomy ground floor room.

Yesterday, as a tense stand-off continued in the nearby Manger Square, site of the Church of the Nativity built on the reputed birthplace of Jesus, a few hundred metres from the Abdas' little house Israeli soldiers continued to move through the streets from door to door.

We came across two columns of them, retreating ahead of us in the direction of Manger Square, firing shots into the doors that they had already blasted from their hinges as they went.

On every corner and every block the soldiers had smashed the water pipes and mains, destroyed cars and ripped up electricity cables.

Elsewhere we found other remnants of the continuing fighting: an armoured panel, ripped from an armoured personnel carrier that had run into a wall. Elsewhere, the drifts of spent shell casings from the Israeli soldiers' weapons.

We halted when the Israeli soldiers called to us to come no nearer to the square, where some 200 Palestinian armed militants were holed up in the Church of the Nativity.

Among those trapped inside the church, the Vatican confirmed yesterday, are 40 Franciscan monks and nuns, as well as 30 Greek Orthodox and Armenian monks.

Ms Mary Kelly, a nurse from Baltimore, West Cork, was among a group of volunteers who tried and failed to reach the church to treat 30 wounded. She is a friend of Ms Caoimhe Butterly, also from West Cork, who has been inside Mr Arafat's headquarters since last Friday night.

"I was moved to come out to support the Palestinian people," Ms Kelly asserted. "We are hoping the international community will halt this brutal aggression. Two ambulances have been crushed by Israeli tanks. The Holy Family Hospital is riddled with bullets, which also destroyed the statue of the Virgin on the roof of the church nearby. There are women inside giving birth, and 30 terrified children."

The aim is to get an ambulance manned by a doctor and a medic to the church to treat less serious cases and evacuate those who need hospital care. The Red Cross has not been able to get through.

(Guardian Service)

Black BladeRe: Canuck - Energy Share Prices and Oil#726754/4/02; 04:43:10

Why are energy shares falling while oil and natural gas prices are much higher? That's the big question. We just discussed something similar about Gold and Gold shares. I was watching a Brit analyst who asked the same question about oil. No one seems to know the answer. The only possibilities I can think of are 1) profit taking; and 2) more Enronitis. Williams (a pipeline and energy compny) is under investigation by the SEC for questionable accounting. Where have we heard that before?

Another blow to the sector came when an energy trust Eott Energy Partners Ltd. (EOT) declared that they were not going to make a first quarter distribution. Other than that Euro regulators declared that they have assurances from OPEC that the trading range for oil will remain between $25 and $28. Meanwhile Oil holds at about $27.50, and natural gas is higher by 5 cents at $3.55 Mbtu.

The outlook for energy is that we will have higher prices so this general trend may be temporary. At the same time the situation continues to deteriorate. The press got ahold of unflattering pictures of Israeli police and military beating peace demonstrators. Througot the Middle East there are Arab demonstrations around US embassies. It would not take much for outside terrorists to do something while attention is diverted. We definitely live in "Interesting Times". Cheers!

- Black Blade

CanuckI more I read and listen the more I am confused#726764/4/02; 04:45:06

You know, after the statement out of Hussein yesterday ( first, admission of paying suicide bombers and second, increasing pay from 10k to 25k) I cannot find any reasonable explaination why a flurry of bombs haven't leveled Iraq yet.

What is Arafat's condition? Every stinking news channel was riveted on him all Easter week-end telling us of each of his urinations and now nothing. I understand they (media) has been booted out but what is going on?

Israel has taken over, 100's on tanks mobilized in every town, Hussein waving MORE terrorist money around, admission that he is behind all this and GOLD, OIL & GAS falls off a cliff?

Why is this so MUCKED UP?

SteveHJA#726774/4/02; 05:00:44



ps. Thanks

Canuck@ BB#726784/4/02; 05:07:31

I appreciate your message but I think (fear) we are missing
something. I went thru approximately 20 PM stocks, half-a-dozen energy trusts and another dozen O&G majors, they ALL simultaneously fell off a cliff at (more or less) the same time, an extreme, sudden, unexplainable reversal.

They can't all be accounting crooks, I appreciate that possibly they got painted with the same brush. Please notice that after Comex/Nymex closed on Tuesday (gold rising to approx. 305) the sell-off started between 2 and 3pm. The traders were telling us something (markets always lead, yes) and sure enough POG and shares dived yesterday.

Do you find it odd that the Nikkei is rising? Most markets are struggling post-Apr. 1 but the Nikkei is rising, why? Has the Japan crisis thing been glossed over?

Israel has taken over, the bombers have stopped. Is the ME situation de-escalating? In the eyes of the traders it sure is. Are they correct? This will determine short-term trading, will it not?

I mentioned a key statement from the Arab summit the other day. The Arabs said, " attack of Iraq is an attack of ALL the Arab world." Has the imminent attack of Iraq been traded off for Israel's peace?

A couple weeks ago a very long article in the Globe and Mail suggested that a deal was being struck under the table for Hussein and Sharron's 'head-in-a-basket'.

I believe the opposite may be occuring now. Iraq's peace has been traded for Israel's (temporary?) This, in my very humble opinion, will be confirmed by the non-attack of Iraq even after Husseins blatant terrorist statements yesterday.
After all, the US was warned, in no uncertain terms as a result of the summit. This is why the US is 'doing nothing'.



Black BladeCanuck#726794/4/02; 05:18:02

It could be that the markets were spooked with all the accounting scandals hitting energy and energy related companies from Enron to Williams. With the current situation in the Middle East, who knows what will happen. As far as the Nikkei, there is some evidence that Japanee are calling cash home to Papa. In other words, other markets are suffering due to lack of investment and Japanese calling home cash from foriegn investments. Anyway, that is the speculation from some people. Today looks like it could be another wild ride on Wall Street as no one has a clear feel for the market. Who knows - could be fun. I have no fear though as I have made my preparations (have PMs and still in positive territory in my investments) and now it is all a game. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black BladeCanuck#726804/4/02; 05:21:15

It may be possible that much of that repatrioted cash is finding its way into the Nikkei. Oh yeah, I should point out that the Japanese government pension fund has been propping up the Nikkei as well with strong buying on occasion.
RobotGuyMy Fellow Canuck#726814/4/02; 07:00:17

IMO I think you hit the nail on the head when you said "profit taking." It would seem to me that after all these years of people slamming precious metals as a reliable investment, people who are easily influenced will tend to listen closely and of course follow like lemmings. If someone who has never supported the idea of investing in the realm of precious metals is suddenly impressioned to do so they might be rather nervous once climbing aboard, and they will probably likely be the ones who jump overboard as soon as there's a mild swell. I think we might see this for awhile, as there are a lot of people including many of my close friends who are still very comfortable bashing precious metals. I told a few of my very good friends a year and a half ago to take all of their investments out of techs and put them into gold and they all laughed at me. Today many of them are angry at me, or so it seems, cause they didn't listen to me. I have another close friend who is just completing a university course that will enable him to be a market analyst or 'cheerleader' as I prefer to call them. I had a good long discussion with him over the subject of precious metals being a wise long term investment in light of recent and past events including but not least the suppression of gold and silver. My good fiend has been taken by the masses of mainstream education and will have nothing to do with it, even though I proved to him over the course of the last year that precious metals funds have had superior gains over any other funds. "It's merely a fluke!" he would say, precious metals funds have been losers for many years and they will be in the future. My mother is also quite involved in the investment world, and she told me a year ago not to put my money in gold, that it was too risky. I proved her wrong, but she will never admit that I was right.

My point is, is that there are a great many doubting Thomas' out there, and for good reason, they've just been burned bad by every other market. I think many will jump at small profits in the beginning, but when they see that this market is going to be the new(old) market for security and that it isn't going to fail we will see a neverending gradual incline for our PMs.

I hear people talking about investing their money in something tangeable like houses, cars, anything that might have some significant value, but let's not forget over the long run houses get run down, cars rust, and cd's may soon be a thing of the past. We all know that once all the known PM resources are exhausted, they won't be making any more. I have always considered precious metals an excellent long term store of wealth.

But after all, I'm just a RobotGuy.

TruthcasterTrouble brewing for J.P. Morgan and more.#726824/4/02; 07:09:38

Hi All-
I was reading on Bloomberg were there is a law suit
against J.P. Morgan chase on the enron collapse. And I
see that the jobless rate is up again, if in fact it ever
went down. Hope to see a pop in gold's today I wonder if
300 mark will hold thru the rest of the week? I guess will
wait and see. Have a good one.... Truthcaster

RobotGuyBlack Blade - - - Did you already post this one??#726834/4/02; 07:11:37


First-time requests for state unemployment benefits unexpectedly jumped 64,000 to 460,000 in the latest week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Economists looked for jobless claims at a level of 377,000.

A Labor official said the unexpected surge was due to re-applications for extended benefits from already out-of-work individuals who haven't yet been hired again.

After recently signed legislation extending benefits, workers whose benefits had already expired are now able to receive funds for another 13 weeks if they signed up after March 15.

The four-week moving average, which irons out weekly fluctuations, stood at 403,750, up from 384,000.

(More to article)

RobotGuy - - - Surprise numbers, go figure. You mean we weren't able to predict everything like we thought we could?

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Hard assets... Easy access!#726844/4/02; 07:49:50

They make new BULLION every day.

They stopped making these BEAUTIES long ago.

A fixed supply has its advantages.

Call USAGOLD / Centennial to discuss the investment strategy that's right for you.

Old YellerStephen Roach on the US C/A deficit#726854/4/02; 07:58:35

Adjustment coming,not a matter of if,just when.

He feels it's going to be a "hard landing",too.Due to the scale of the problem and the total lack of focus on the implications,I would agree.

HipplebeckCanuck#726864/4/02; 08:05:38

It is my personal opinion that the price of gold is still tightly connected with the perception of inflation. The price does rise a little when something happens like the WTC or a flare-up in the Mid East, but not nearly as much as you would expect. Everytime they feel like the economy is coming back strong, they fear inflation is coming with it. When it feels like Uh-Oh we are maybe not coming out of this downturn yet, the price of gold goes down. I have said this before here, gold will not really take off until there is a real fear of inflation, then watch out.
JCTexHipplebeck (4/4/02; 08:05:38MT - msg#: 72686)#726874/4/02; 08:29:50

My personal opinion is that it doesn't matter what anybody thinks about much of anything.

The bought-media tells us what to think, and the government "statisticians" feed us what all mushrooms need.

As long as paper prices physical, the only opinions that count are the cabal's opinions.

TruthcasterGold just above 300#726884/4/02; 08:33:59

Gold is still under pressure this morning and is holding
just above the 300 level at 300.50 dwn $3 It looks to me that we may visit the 290's again good time to buy more
I guess. Crude oil is up at open 39 cents a barrel to $28.
and today at the pump here in the midwest for the cheap
gas, 1.50 a gal. ouch.. Truthcaster

sectorJapan Telco NTT...Hammered for $15.9 Billion...More "Good News" from a Moribund Economy#726894/4/02; 08:43:32

NTT warns of record loss after $15.9bn charge
By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo
Published: April 4 2002 14:28 | Last Updated: April 4 2002 14:36

NTT, Japan's dominant telecommunications group, on Thursday revealed the extent of the damage incurred from its overseas foray. It warned that its net loss would be more than double previous forecasts due to an extraordinary charge of Y2,095bn ($15.9bn), the largest ever by a non-financial Japanese company.

The charge reflects write-downs on overseas investments by its international and mobile subsidiaries and restructuring costs needed to cut excess personnel at its two domestic operating companies.

NTT said its net loss for the year would surge to Y865bn, from the Y331bn originally forecast, although sales and recurring profit forecasts remained the same at Y11,812bn and Y665bn respectively.

But analysts and investors put a positive spin on the revised outlook, saying it cleared the way for a profit rebound.

"True, this is a huge pool of red ink. But getting the write-downs out in the open wipes the slate clean," said Fumiaki Sato, of CDIC IXIS Asset Management. "The bad news is out there and the market can now refocus on prospects for the core businesses."

Of the extraordinary losses, Y1,403bn stems from overseas investments made by NTT DoCoMo, its mobile arm that went on a Y1,800bn buying spree at the peak of the telecoms bubble, and NTT Communications, its long-distance and international subsidiary.

An additional Y692bn charge reflects restructuring costs at NTT East and West.

DoCoMowrote down Y616bn to reflect the decline in value of its investment in AT&T Wireless, Hutchison 3G UK and KG Telecom in Taiwan. This followed a charge of Y300.8bn related to its investment in KPN Mobile in the first half, bringingDoCoMo's total write-downs of overseas investments to more than half the Y1,800bn it has spent expanding outside its home turf.

As a result of the additional charges, DoCoMo will report its first ever loss of Y36bn at the net level.

NTT said its directors would not receive a bonus for the first time, with the president and chairmantaking pay cuts of 20 per cent, the vice-president 15 per cent, and 10 per cent for other directors.

NTT Communications, which has already taken a Y4,980 charge against the decline in value of its investment in Verio, the US web-hosting company, will book a further Y40bn impairment loss against Verio, and Y52bn against its investment in PLDT in the Philippines and others.

The charges allow NTT to deal with the value of its investments in one swoop and concentrate on tackling the increasingly difficult domestic market.

The group faces severe pressure in practically all areas of its business as competition has intensified amid Japan's deflationary market environment.

At the same time NTT faces renewed pressure from the US, which on Thursday published a report calling on Japan and the EU European Union to lower mobile phone interconnection rates and provide "reasonable" prices.

However, Keiji Tachikawa, DoCoMo president and chief executive, on Thursday disputed the US claims: "Access charges in Japan are lower than in Europe. Japan's [charging] system is different from the one in the US, so a comparison can't be made."
This should only add to the gloom and loss of confidence of the Japanese savers...pushing them towards gold.

TownCrierINSIDE FOREIGN AFFAIRS: 'Bush's muddled approach to Mideast does nothing'#726914/4/02; 09:04:03

Latest Jensen (excerpt):

Never has President Bush seemed more impotent -- or muddled -- than he does as the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians moves from mayhem to madness.

While other world leaders demand that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon halt his military offensive in Palestinian cities, Bush demands that Yasser Arafat "stop the violence" -- even while Israeli troops are shooting his policemen.

Arafat, in fact, has repeatedly condemned suicide bombings, but this has not stopped them. The 18-year-old schoolgirl who blew herself up outside a Jerusalem supermarket did not have Arafat's OK; actually, she defied his orders not to harm Israeli civilians.

Such distinctions are lost on Sharon, who blames Arafat for everything: He is the architect of a "terrorist infrastructure," an "enemy of Israel and the free world in general," and a danger to the Middle East. Bush apparently agrees, while his State Department does not.

Asked if the storming of Arafat's office was justified, the president replied: "Israel is a democratically elected government and the government is responding to the will of the people for there to be more security. Israel will make the decisions necessary to defend herself."

The State Department [...] is "greatly concerned about civilian casualties" and has asked Israel to "carefully consider the consequences" of its military actions.

...Zbigniew Brzezinski, former national security adviser to President Carter, in an interview with CNN: "I can see two major jeopardies ahead if we don't step into the breach. If the tragedy between Israelis and Palestinians degenerates into total violence, if Arafat is killed, we'll probably see major uncertainty, major instability in the Middle East. We'll become more isolated in the war on terrorism because the Arabs will unite against us. And we could even get an oil embargo with the Saudis, the Iraqis and Iranians joining forces despite their disagreements. That's a very, very ominous scenario."

----(click link for full article)-----

A diversification into gold makes sense. Gold represents real wealth during good times, and during bad times it represents portable protection from financial collapse resulting from lost confidence and from couterparty default.


Mr GreshamRobotGuy: Pearls Before...#726934/4/02; 09:20:29

It makes you wonder just who to tell anything to, doesn't it? And wish you hadn't...
Mr GreshamHere's the rub...#726944/4/02; 09:28:09

IMO, the birth of Israel, in our lifetimes (or at least mine), was all about the right of a people to survive attempts at extermination, and to have a safe homeland. It was about burying Hitler's ghost with a big final "Nyahh nyahh, you LOST, sucker!"

Now, obviously Israel, the actually-existing nation of today, doesn't believe it has to live up to my ideals, or anyone else's outside its own borders. It gets to play like any other nation, using what it has to get what it wants. Fair enough. But that threatens to erode the special sympathies that I and many others hold for it, which it doesn't count as worth very much at all.

It really is the conflict between the ideal and the realpolitik, written in a stark contrast for our noses-pushed-into-it viewing.

RobotGuyNice to see the old Canuck buck heading for the hills again - - - NOT!! I'm getting really tired of this dollar, I wonder if my employer will pay me in gold?#726954/4/02; 09:33:51

BelgianDecoding the speech ....#726964/4/02; 09:45:36

POG (307$ >> 301$) was the only one in the knew of this speech and its content. Enough is Enough...!?
To Europ : Shut up and leave us alone. Don't interfere with Arafat support. Only Germany (+ Russia) is "with us "...ask Welteke...and remember their holocost past !
Emphasis on the Palestine support(ers) on the adress of Iraq/Syria.
Blair meets Bush this weekend and will co-decide on the Powell C.(not Rich) message to the ME. Hypocritical US/Saudi friendship was also in the message. The word "viable" disappeared out of the mentioning of Palestinian state.
27$ + for POO HURTS ! Arafat is most probably out ! My guess is the (wanted) escalation as a result. But for the time baing, the speech has temporary avoided POG to break its 308$/310$ barrier ! Thanks.

RobotGuyNorth Korea - - - Strong Words#726974/4/02; 09:47:16;jsessionid=F1ARAMXCAU3XECRBAEKSFEYKEEARMIWD?type=topnews&StoryID=774243

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said on Thursday that the United States was its "most wicked sworn enemy" in a series of diatribes issued less than 24 hours after Pyongyang dropped hints it might restart frozen dialogue with Washington.

"The U.S. is the most wicked sworn enemy of the Korean nation as it is not only hindering inter-Korean exchange and cooperation ... but also putting a stumbling block in the way of achieving Korea's reunification," the state media quoted the North's Asia-Pacific Peace Committee as saying.

A separate KCNA report quoted a North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesman as demanding Washington pay compensation for what it said was a U.S. failure to uphold a key deal which froze Pyongyang's suspected nuclear weapons program.

Yet another statement, in the official Rodong Sinmun newspaper, demanded the withdrawal of U.S. troops in South Korea, saying "it is imperative to put an end to the presence in South Korea by the U.S. imperialist aggression troops."

In what was taken in Washington as a possible sign North Korea was willing to talk, late on Wednesday, KCNA quoted a Foreign Ministry official as saying Pyongyang would re-engage with an international consortium at the heart of the crucial nuclear agreement with the United States.


RobotGuy; North Korea surprised me when it was implied they were considering talks again, but then they've just done a seemingly 180 and surprised me again. Might as well throw Canada in with the U.S. too, cause we seem to have an affinity with each other, and Cretien seems to be quite willing to assist wherever assistance is required. North Korea, Iraq, surprising news headlines in roughly the same 24hrs, hmmmm.

TownCrierJensen update shows the face of terrorism worn by many, for "good" and "bad"#726984/4/02; 09:52:22

HEADLINE: 'Israelis, Palestinians both have blood on their hands'


Fifty-seven Islamic nations ended a three-day conference in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, by condemning terrorism "in all its forms" but failing to define it.

Arab delegates unanimously rejected "any attempt to link terrorism to the struggle of the Palestinian people in the exercise of their inalienable right to establish an independent state."

It all boils down to that age-old question of who is a terrorist and who is a freedom fighter. Some of today's nations were, in fact, born of terrorism and some terrorists of yore are now respected statesmen and Nobelists.

Terrorism freed the southern Irish Republic from British rule and has forced Britain to relax its hold on Northern Ireland. Much of colonial Africa and parts of Asia were liberated by terrorist wars. Israel had its terrorists and the Palestinians, too.

Menachem Begin blew up the King David Hotel to drive the British out of Palestine. The Irgun and Stern Gang terrorized Palestinians before the creation of the state of Israel. And Yasser Arafat has employed terror against the Jewish state.

Yet Begin won the Nobel Peace Prize for signing the Camp David accord, as did Arafat and two other Israeli leaders for signing the Oslo accord. And the ANC's Nelson Mandela, who spent most of his life imprisoned as a terrorist, is not only a Nobel laureate but hailed around the world as one of its premier peacemakers.

That's why the United Nations, which has spent years grappling to define terrorism, has never managed to do so. And that's why President Bush has been forced to admit that he cannot brand Arafat a terrorist simply on Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's say-so.

While Sharon compares Arafat to Osama bin Laden "that's not a comparison the president accepts," said White House spokesman Ari Fleischer, noting that Arafat participated in peace talks before they broke down and, for better or worse, remains a symbol of Palestinian aspirations.

Lev Grinberg, a sociology professor at Ben Gurion University who frequently writes for the daily Maariv, says the United States is "evil" for supporting Sharon, whom he considers as bad a terrorist as the suicide bombers he is after. "The state terror and war crimes perpetrated by the Israeli government are legitimized as 'self-defense' while Arafat, even under siege, is demanded to arrest 'terrorists.'

"At the same time, Sharon's responsibility for Israeli war crimes is completely ignored. Who should be arrested for the targeted killing of almost 100 Palestinians? Who should be sent to jail for the killing of more than 120 Palestinian paramedics? Who will be sentenced for killing more than 1,200 Palestinians and the collective punishment of more than 3 million civilians during the last 18 months?

Galearis@Black Blade and all: Ted Butler on Ag exports by China#726994/4/02; 10:05:40

While the market may face a rough patch in the near term, due to the lopsided and negative (and manipulative) COT position in gold, silver and copper, the fundamentals in silver are something else. There have been multiple posts recently, on every metal site around, about how much silver Red China is exporting. Not only are these stories pure c()ap and unsubstantiated, they are obviously being leaked out for an entirely diffrent purpose - to help Red China buy silver on the cheap. Here, you're going to have to use some common sense. The numbers being thrown out go like this - China produces around 60 million ounces per year, and is exporting around 40 million oz. That implies a net consumption of 20 million ounces a year.

The US (the world's largest consumer of silver, and every other commodity) consumes around 250 million ounces a year, on a population of 280 million. Let's call that an ounce per head. China has a population of some 1.3 billion, and consumes just 20 million ounces? Huh? Does that make sense to you? While I know China is not consuming an ounce per person, it is consuming a hell of a lot more than 20 million ounces. After all, its economic growth has been blistering for years, compared to the US and the rest of the world. It is Kodak's second largest market currently, and that company says it will be its number one in the not too distant future. Additionally, China is said to be the world's second largest consumer of copper. It is not possible for them to consume the small amounts of silver implied in the planted stories. I don't deny that China is refining and smelting more waste recycling silver, with the waste imported and the refined silver being exported. Obviously, the folks sending the waste to China for refining, demand the finished product in return. That's because of China's willingness to tolerate environmental damage not acceptable elsewhere in the world. But its willingness to be the toxic processor of last resort, does not make them a big net exporter.

Red China treats its commodity statistics as state secrets. It only tells you what it wants you to think. It wants you to think it has plenty of silver. Common sense should tell you with a mine production of only 60 million ounces a year, a population of 1.3 billion, and a goal and trend for its people to enter the modern world, China, of all countries on the face of the earth, faces a silver need and crunch more desperate than can be imagined. These stories are intended to make it easier for them to buy silver. Don't be fooled by their lies - use your common sense.

As usual, well said.


Belgian@ Old Yeller#727004/4/02; 10:15:33

Sir, your Morgan Stanley article on CA-deficit, learns us that the politico/financial collusion, chooses the most appropiate moment for the final inevitable corrections !
Stockmarket / Gold / Interest rates, are managed against the clock, ticking economic realities. Adjustments or better "crashes" up or down just wait for their approval signal ! Than the markets get a fresh bout of freedom...alas for temporary adjustments. The dollar (down) and interest rates (up) are still defying gravity. And there are so many dollar-holders out there ! The main reason why long awaited approval for adjustment stays away is the monstrous "Derivative" positions that builded the mega anomaly in the first place. It was not assurance but speculation with a purpose of blowing things up out of proportion. etc...etc... Thanks for bringing it up.

RobotGuyForum Grey Matter#727014/4/02; 11:06:11

I thought of something just now. We often speculate in this forum on the causes of the immediate past; why did ths happen; why did that happen etc. The fluctuations in precious metals are often followed by a flurry of hypothesis, and sometimes cold hard facts.
Key word, followed.
Why is it that we do not combine our many talents and hypothesize the immediate future? Is it because we're all under the understanding that precious metals are rising in value and there are no two which ways about it.
I think this recent subtle drop in gold could have been determined had we stuck our heads together and speculated what the immediate future might hold. Sure, there are always random functions, but for the most part we all have a general consensus of what is happening, and what is likely to happen in the near future.

For example, last weekend I was thinking to myself gold will probably go down this week, without thinking too hard of the reasons why it might. If I were sure about myself, I could have stood to make a little money. I am also thinking that gold may continue to drop a little over the course of the next several hours, but will probably go back up on Friday, closing above 305. Now here's the clincher, I'm not certain, that's just my gut feeling.

Would anyone care to join me in my speculation of the near immediate future of market conditions?

If I were to provide reason for my speculation it would probably be another page of blah blah blah, so I'll stop here for now.


YGMQuite Interesting site...#727024/4/02; 11:14:44


West Point Gold Reserves belong to German Bundersbank.

Freemarket Gold and Money Report

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee

Link to the Mexican-American War of 1848

Gold rush Museum in Oakland, California

Sir Francis Drake's voyage to North America

Diary of Drake's voyage from a Roman Catholic college

Thanks to all the Australians that visit

Gold Discovery in Australia

Vatican ship sinks

Vatican bank has Nazi gold!!

Vatican Revealed As Major Dealer in Gold!!

Vatican Bank Top 10 Money Laundering Destinations!!


Editor's Notes

Before the fall of the Papal States, the stolen gold was brought directly to the Vatican and stored in huge deep underground vaults. That is not possible now because the Italian customs would see the gold and the Italian government would keep it. For that reason they cannot ship directly but must use Swiss and German vaults to store the loot. Maybe it is wishful thinking on the part of the U.S. Treasure but they have re-classified all the U.S. gold as "deep storage gold."

Before the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Vatican feared a Soviet invasion of Western Europe and did not want to accumulate a lot of gold there. However, within the past 7 years, the flow of gold out of the U.S. and into Swiss and German banks has been enormous.

After South Africa, Russia is the second largest producer of gold in the world. By keeping the price of gold artificially low, Russia is deprived of millions in revenue that could be used to resist a NATO invasion.

According to the Bible, gold is so plentiful in Heaven that they use it to pave the streets and the Popes cannot steal any of it:

PizzVolitility, Momentum, Market Makers, and Big Players, or Why You Shouldn't Play Paper#727034/4/02; 11:21:01

The game is so rigged against the average "Joe", that even if he can keep his sanity, he will lose his money surer than in a casino with the overall odds for the house. I'll try to explain as best I can.

Let's take a nice little PM stock trading for 10.00, but with a market maker(MM) trying to establish a long term position in the stock. Fundamentals are good for PM's and the market maker estimates the stock can (will if he's good) go to up over a three month period.

The MM establishes a "floor" for the stock with say a bid of 100,000 shares @ 9.50. These bid/ask prices are transparent to anyone with the right software (Level II Nasdaq for example).

Now, once a few traders realize that some big player hasn't stepped in and sold into the bid (a real risk for the MM or any player placing large limit orders), they start bidding the stock up and in effect taking all the limit sell orders over 10.00. All the while the MM uses his short term trading account keeping bids just below the market, capturing stock from the "market sell orders".

If a MM or big player keeps substantial bids right below the market price, the stock goes up with the MM accumulating shares. He also more than likely moves his "floor" bid up as a trailing buy to help protect the price of his trading account. Don't want a large trader who is playing the opposite game (short sellers) to be able to take the price down too far with a sell of 50,000 shares or so that would put the MM's trading account under water.

Complicated enough yet???

Now lets say the MM gets the stock up to 15.00 or so without attracting a big short player, who is someone who thinks or knows he has the resources to play the same game as the market maker, but on the downside with short positions. It's now time for him to take some profits or basically unload some of his stock. Now he puts in a block sell order in above the current price, and the whole thing starts over but on the downside. The MM can usually control the price on the way down so as to put a big bid back in at key technical levels - say fibbanchi numbers (smile)??? and then work the price back up.

Throw in day traders, short sellers, funds, option writers, into the mix, all with their own views on where the markets and stocks are going, all with different resources, most all with computers programmed with trading strategies, and you may just start to see why markets are volitile.

All the big players "war" with each other for their share of the invester's money, and each others. The above example is played out by some in seconds with spreads in the pennies, by others in minutes with spreads in the tenths, by others in hours with half point spreads, etc.

Now, big traders and MMs will also place big bids in and then pull them almost instantainously just to fool the other traders and try to trigger computer programs that they are positioned to profit from. Others have computer programs that place bids into the market at one price, but actually show another price on the level II screens in order to make their bids invisible.

Still want to trade paper????? Do you really think you know just when or where the MM is going to place his floor bid. Or how about a fund that has written a block of calls on your rising stock as they unload their positions and force the price down or cap the rise while there is good news. Sound familiar???

It's only about 100 times more complicated than my feeble example and explanation above.

Playing paper or buying physical??? Which makes more sense?

There's a storm on the horizon. Want to live in a paper house or a PM house. (Ah, hell, go play paper if you want, the big boys are having to fight it out amongst themselves right now and they'd love to have you toss your few bucks into THEIR GAME.)


darkhorse@Pizz#727044/4/02; 11:42:14

You're a breath of fresh's nice to know there are some people that know the "numbers" game and aren't one of the bad guys. Even a financial idiot like me can understand enough from your post to know which side us rookies need to stay on. Thanx for all your insight.
RobotGuyWell, to my pleasant surprise gold managed to pop it's head above 300 for the comex close!#727054/4/02; 11:42:33

HipplebeckPossible?#727064/4/02; 11:57:58

Mining company sells forward to Bullion Bank, Bullion Bank swaps forward contracts for vault gold and sells. Voila! Deep Storage Gold
RobotGuyPizz, I know exactly what you're talking about.#727074/4/02; 11:59:20

I do the same thing with smaller valued stocks. You need to have a good reserve to keep feeding the market to stimulate upward buying, not to mention it's all so helpful when the POG fluctuates, and everyone get's excited. Gold price fluctuations are the mechanism by which the overall expanding floor is advanced and strengthened. Sure, I'm not a billionaire, if I were I wouldn't bother with anything paper related, but even a rookie like myself can earn far greater returns than that percentage the bank pays on a savings account. I take losses, but generally overall my capital manages to continue growing.

Why not put it all into gold? This is my gambling money :)

Thank you for your post.


Hipplebeckrising floor#727084/4/02; 12:00:19


Pizz@Darkhorse#727094/4/02; 12:01:00

Learned the hard way. My wife's Barbi doll collection has a better track record than my option trading over the past 10 years.

She's getting ready to sell a few dolls now and buy gold. Haven't figured out if it's because of me or just the fact that she's run out of space in her doll room. At least she's pointed in the right direction.


miner49erPizz @ 72703 #727104/4/02; 12:18:15

Nice follow-the-bouncing-ball example...!

I already sent your post to a couple of guys here to help illustrate the travesty that goes on in the name of "reasoned and deliberated investment."

Good point, that these guys may intentionally reverse at key TA levels. Lots of technical players provide a nice solid wall to bounce off. This also serves to fool people into thinking that these kinds of analysis are as magical as they are made out to be -- which then reinforces the process, so that they have predictable fodder to work with the next time they cycle through... what a gas...?!


Strad MasterQuestion for Town Crier#727114/4/02; 12:36:55

RE: Posting # 77698

In following the URL link to the Centennial Precious Metals page you included with your recent post one finds at the top the following: "While we find Mr. Jensen's columns particularly informative with respect to foreign affairs, his opinions do not necessarily represent those of Centennial Precious Metals, USAGOLD, its management and clientele." If that is true, why do you bother posting Mr. Jensen's one-sided opinion piece at all? At best, it is laden with half-truths. At worst, it is morally confused claptrap. I've discussed the Middle East situation on mumerous ocassions with MK so I know that he doesn't subscribe to the ideas of moral equivalence that Jensen espouses. It seems to me that, while you are entitled to share Jensen's misguided opinions, it certainly does no good for CPM to post inflammatory opinion pieces on official CPM pages as if they were truly "informative with respect to foreign affairs."
JCTexTownCrier/Terrorists#727124/4/02; 13:09:40

Not sure why I am even bothering to reply.

"...It all boils down to that age-old question of who is a terrorist and who is a freedom fighter..." sounds like b.s. to me.

What difference who, why, or what awards; if you knowingly kill innocents, including women and children, that sounds like murder to me. Mass murder is a qualifier for how many.

Years ago, I was personal friends with a mass murderer. They shot him like a mad dog for his rampage. He died on the University of Texas Tower, and never got to win any those awards.

Charley was a mass murderer, and they killed him right where he was. They did the right thing.

sectorThe Coming "Adjustment" to the Current Account Deficit...Morgan Stanley's Roach#727134/4/02; 13:15:15

The Word "Adjustment" is a Euphamism for "Devaluation"

Apr 04, 2002
Winds of Change Finally Blowing

On Current-Account Adjustments
Stephen Roach (New York)

Hints of America's coming current-account adjustment are already in the air. As Joe Quinlan noted in yesterday's Forum, just-released data on foreign capital inflows into the US for early 2002 point to a significant shift in the sources of external financing. In January, portfolio inflows into dollar-denominated assets slowed to just $11.3 billion, a marked deceleration from average monthly flows of $44 recorded during 2001. If this trend remains even remotely intact, I believe America's ability to finance its massive external deficit will become severely impaired. And then the US current-account adjustment will begin in earnest.

What might such an adjustment entail? That's a question I get a lot these days as I pound the table on what I believe is the key macro tension point for the US economy. Fortunately, there are important lessons from history that may shed some light on what the future holds for America as it faces up to the coming external adjustment. A recent research paper by a Fed economist provides some compelling evidence of potential responses as drawn from the experiences of some 25 current-account adjustments that occurred among industrialized countries over the 1980-97 period (see Caroline L. Freund, "Current Account Adjustment in Industrialized Countries," Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System International Finance Discussion paper #692, December 2000, available at While this history offers no guarantees of what lies ahead for the United States, there are some important lessons that I do not believe should be taken lightly.

First of all, the Fed study finds that the median current-account (CA) adjustment of these 25 episodes occurs when the external gap hits about 5% of nominal GDP. It then takes about three years, on average, for the adjustment process to run its course. Even after those three years, the median CA is still in deficit to the tune of about 1% of GDP. There is considerable variability within this sample as to which CA deficit threshold triggers the adjustment. The last time it occurred in the United States was in 1987, when the CA gap was 3.7% of GDP; three years later it had shrunk by 56% to 1.6%. There are, of course, many episodes of CA adjustments that predate the 1980 time frame. But the sample in the Fed study was restricted to that period largely because it had two key characteristics in common with current international financial conditions -- broadly based financial capital mobility and flexible exchange rates.

It's the dynamics of the CA adjustment process as revealed in this Fed study that I find most fascinating and pertinent for the economic outlook. (Note: The results reported below are for the median CA adjustment over the 25 episodes contained in the 1980-97 sample period). First, the adjusting country typically experienced depreciation in its real effective exchange rate of about 20%; in only two of the 25 instances did the exchange rate appreciate -- Canada in 1981 and Denmark in 1988. But they were the obvious exceptions. Typically, the devaluation began about a year before the CA gap hit its peak and then continued for another three years. At the same time, the depreciation in the nominal exchange rate was, on average, more than double the decline in the real exchange rate. Second, real GDP growth slowed, on average, by about three percentage points from the year prior to the CA peaking; that impact was largest in the first year of the adjustment process. Third, short-term interest rates typically rose in the beginning of the CA adjustment as central banks attempted to limit currency depreciation; toward the end of the adjustment process, short rates typically fell as the downside of the business cycle played out.

Fourth, the Fed study found that an improved trade balance was an important by-product of most of the CA adjustments in this sample period. Interestingly enough, trade turnarounds were mostly export led, with real export growth being boosted, on average, by four percentage points over the course of the three-year CA adjustment. Import growth, by contrast, slowed quite sharply in the first year of the CA adjustment -- a four-percentage-point reduction, on average -- but then returned to its pre-adjustment trend two years later. Fifth, CA adjustments are typically more investment- than saving-led; national saving ratios change little over the first two years of the adjustment period, whereas aggregate investment ratios typically fell by close to two percentage points over the same period.

All this paints a pretty clear picture as to what to expect in the coming US CA adjustment -- a weaker dollar, slower GDP growth, a less accommodative Fed, firmer exports, and weaker imports and investment. It's yet another manifestation of America's post-bubble adjustment process. During the Roaring 1990s, Americans (especially consumers) took great confidence from equity wealth effects and drew down their income-based saving balances to historic lows. The result was a saving-short US economy that had to rely increasingly on foreign capital to finance its IT-led investment boom. And America had to run a massive CA deficit in order to attract that external capital. But in doing so, the nation lived well beyond its means -- as those means were defined by the domestic income generation associated with national production.

The coming CA correction suggests that this same movie is now about to run in reverse. In my opinion, it's just a matter of when, not if -- and what triggers the adjustment process. Along those lines, there is great debate on whether the coming landing will be "soft" or "hard" -- gradual or abrupt. This is particularly problematic since the dollar is the world's dominant reserve currency and the US is the world's largest international debtor. Given the saturation of dollar-denominated assets in foreign portfolios, a crisis of confidence is not inconceivable. Should that occur, I believe a hard landing would be inevitable. The metrics of past CA adjustments has little to say about differentiating between these two possibilities. But one thing is certain: The longer the day of reckoning is put off, the more severe the macro impacts of the adjustment process are likely to be. That's because CA adjustments are not complete until the deficit gets reasonably close to balance. In the 25 instances covered in the Fed study cited above, CA deficits ended up, after three years, being less than 2% of GDP on all but four occasions. In other words, there's little dispute over the endgame. It's just a matter of when -- and from what extreme -- it begins.

Needless to say, all this has important implications for financial markets. As I see it, two aspects of America's looming CA adjustment should be especially important in that regard -- weaker GDP growth and a fall in the dollar. A shortfall in GDP growth implies a weaker earnings trajectory than most equity investors are assuming. And a weaker dollar should provide ample incentive for global investors to diversify out of dollar-denominated assets -- consistent with our global decoupling thesis. I remain convinced that America's ever-widening current-account deficit is on an inherently unstable path. A correction is coming and there's no dark secret as to what that means. It's just a matter of when the denial finally cracks.
The writer has suggested for months that such a move is in the works.
Chapman's sources have the deval at 19% [Canadian dollar to rise by that amount]

The real problem is the "control" of gold. A $360-$375 pog will be shock enough for the paper sellers on Wall Street [The Pisanis of the World]. There are just too many variables swirling around to be certain about the consequences of a deval...but one is mandatory nonetheless.

This piece is a loud unmistakeable clarion call from a semi-official Fed mouthpiece...perhaps the final warning to GET GOLD...NOW.

It could easily "Get away" from the Fed. Especially with the arrogance factor radiated by AG.

SiochainStock Manipulation as a way to get at gold#7271404/04/02; 13:46:51

Black Blade & Sierra Madre...I agree with your points of last night re using gold stocks as another way to attack POG that's why I had posted those articles showing stock movements and comments by Big Boys this week.

Today, I have been watching Level II on NEM for well over an hour ....during the beginning of the time frame gold stocks were going up we are aware NEM is often seen as the Leader in unhedged.....there was an interesting play between NYS and NAS ...both exchanges...where they would keep putting large numbers up and then pulling them ...trying to limit sales and lower price certainly cut back action when NEM was on a good rise...finally NEM broke thru but it was a fight!

Now who do you think is behind these exchange moves...normal investor doesn't move large blocks and constantly pull and was like a dance between the two

Black BladeJ.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Other Banks Will Be Named in Enron Case#7271504/04/02; 14:00:53


Houston, April 4 (Bloomberg) -- J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Merrill Lynch & Co. and Credit Suisse First Boston will be named as defendants in suits seeking billions of dollars over Enron Corp.'s collapse, people familiar with the litigation said.

Enron investors and former employees have decided to add law firms and as many as eight banks on Monday when they amend their suits, alleging fraud, against the energy trader and its former auditor, Arthur Andersen LLP, the people said.

Black Blade: Not really much of a surprise here. However, the scope of the Enron affair can be damaging to some corporate bottom lines.

Siochain(No Subject)#7271604/04/02; 14:05:36

Appears same game playing on GG ...and they did succeed there....well we know every trick will be played...but the time is getting short
nickel62Trust your stockbroker? What that job has really become in the modern era!#7271704/04/02; 14:29:51

In all honesty it is
not really a question of the greed factor so much as the way the "Brokerage
firms" "financial advisors" or whatever you want to call them have structured
themselves in the last twenty years. They have made it very difficult to be an
honest broker for your clients. There main money makers are investment banking
and various asset collection and sale products. In other words they look at
the clients only as a potential market for the bonds and stocks that their
real clients the companies want to sell to them. The stockbroker is viewed as
simply someone who has a personal relationship with a collection of potential
buyers for "deals". So that when there is a new stock issue or a bond issue,
Merrill Lynch can say we have seven thousand brokers that will sell that issue
for you at the best price. That is it. The rest is just window dressing to
keep the clients passive and fully invested in whatever the brokerage firm
wants them to own. The various half truths like "long term investing" "buy and
hold" and you will make 10-15% if you wait long enough are really just buzz
words that years of salesmanship has divised to make it easier to tell the
client to stop whining when the stockbroker is really as confused and scared
as the client is. The main problem is that all the money of these firms is
made by selling stocks and bonds for corporate clients when the corporate
clients want to raise additional capital through debt or equity issues. The
commissions that you and other clients pay that they are looked upon as simply
a subsidy to reduce the cost of having the seven thousand stockbrokers there
to sell the securities of the firm for the large deals. In order to keep the
pigeons in the roost the firm spends a lot on advertising and positioning and
self serving "research" that is really only designed to acheive the main
reason the firm exists at all. This field much like medicine is not really the
Marcus Welby type of place that it once was, when capital was scarce and each
stockbroker had to work hard to get his client to take it out of the bank or
his business. Today capital is abundant and can be created by a refinancing
gimic or through the Federal Reserve waving their magic discount rate and
flooding the market with some more recently printed up liquidity. The whole
game has changed and just like in medicine if you think you are talking to a
caring Marcus Welby type on the other side of the investment desk, you are
either amazing fortunate to have found one or deluding yourself. There are a
few old timers left who have the clients best interests at heart and have such
a strong relationship with their clients that the firms leave them alone, but
in reality most are young inexperienced second tier intellects that are
totally clueless about what really drives the investment markets but know all
to well what gets them paid. Caveat Emptor was first uttered in ancient Rome
by a disgruntled mutual fund client. He was right, and wiser for the
experience. Most of the problem with the whole industry, and I am a
stockbroker by the way although I refuse to practice, is that truely reasoned
opinions that reflect the actual factors that should be considered in the
investment process are not discussed or really allowed to be aired. They would
queer the deal! If the public wakes up and hits the road we have no one else
to make a living off of. So you constantly hear only the bullish side of the
story and anyone who dares try to inform the investing public of the other
side of the equation is ridiculed, mocked as a pessemist, and marginalized. It
is like a court room trial where the search for justice is carried on by only
the prosecution being allowed to present their case. The defense is not
allowed to talk. The media who lives off the advertising revenue from the big
mutual fund companies and brokerage houses,tends to understand the concept of
not biting the hand that feeds it and the so called corporate "free press"
largely follows along. That said, it has not been that bad to be an investor
in this world until the politicans and wall street conspired to bubble the
market to levels way beyond any sensible level of value. With a Dow near
eleven thousand that would be highly valued at half that price the
consequences for our generation become their ability to retire. So the game is
rapidly becoming much more important, whether the clients want it to or not.
So that is what I meant by my reference to the Wizard of Oz. It is a period in
time when to not be informed of what is really going on with your capital will
throw a very long shadow.

HipplebeckMy take on the Middle East#7271804/04/02; 14:30:12

Every day that the Isrealis can stretch out negotiations, they are able to build more settlements and acquire more land. They have succeeded in stretching out these negotiations for years now and have taken large tracts of high ground in a strategic system of dividing up the Palestinians into smaller and smaller clumps. the Palestinians know this and they are watching their lands being taken over. They have tried fighting this slow encroachment in many different ways to no avail, and now are reduced to suicide bombing. What else can they do? The longer the status quo the more they lose. There are UN resolutions requiring the Isrealis to halt the building of settlements, but they are ignored.
I really believe that the Isrealis cannot give up the Zionist dream of having it all.
The great problem here is that unless they do give up the Zionist dream, they will one day want to build the new temple on the temple mount which requires removing the Mosque now in that location. If they do this, they will plunge the world into war, no doubt about it.
So it comes down to this, will the Isrealis be able to let go of Zionism and recognize that that mosque is going to remain there and they are going to have to stand down there praying at the wailing wall with Muslums standing up above them looking down from the temple mount? I think not.
Because if they do this they will not only have to let go of their long history, but they also fear that Arabs will be so emboldened that the Islamic dream of wiping them off the region will grow. There is no solution other than that which God has ordained, whatever that may be, but it aint gonna be pretty. I think most of us call it Armageddon

SiochainAnd another story on declining mined gold#7271904/04/02; 14:36:12

Global gold mine supply seen in sharp decline
Reuters, 04.04.02, 7:03 AM ET

LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - World supply of mined gold may plummet by nearly 30 percent by 2010 unless bullion prices rally and prompt miners to bring untapped deposits on stream, a mining study showed on Thursday.

Toronto-based mining investment banking and research firm Beacon Group Advisors forecast global gold output falling this year for the first time in two decades, reflecting years of low prices and slashed exploration budgets.

Supplies should continue to fall, with the decline accelerating after 2006 as output dropped from mature mines in the United States and Canada.

"A gold price above $325 is needed to prevent the decline," Beacon Group managing director Don MacLean told a mining conference where the study was presented.

The findings are likely to encourage gold market bulls who see the prospect of reduced mine supply driving prices above $300 a troy ounce, where bullion has been capped for most of the past two years.

(Need to be sure you have gold on hand as well as BB's other listed items...I have some mining shares for play but like the real thing for security)

nickel62JC TEX#7272004/04/02; 14:36:43

I noticed your comment about the shootings at the University of Texas back in the sixties. That was really one of the first such events that I was cognizant of. Would you mind telling how you came to know him and what drove him to that level of desperation?
Hipplebeckstock markets#7272104/04/02; 14:37:49

Every week huge amounts of money go into all those 401K plans. That has to mean that there is constant pressure on stocks to go up. Now, when stocks aren't climbing, where is all this money piling up?
TownCrierCatching the ECB/euro drift, yet? Good for gold.#7272204/04/02; 14:44:34

I've been provided with the latest weekly consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem, worth special note because it reflects the latest asset revaluations based on their quarterly mark-to-market practices.

Cutting to the chase, the gold assets of the Eurosystem rose by 12.994 billion euros on the revaluation from last quarter's price per ounce, now standing at 139.808 billion euros in value.

And lest you think for a minute that the phenomenon was a result of the euro losing value, think again. Here's the quarterly performance of Eurosystem assets on a per unit basis as priced in euros.

DOLLAR unit value
@ end 2001 = 1.135 euro
@ end March ‘02 = 1.146 euro

YEN unit value
@ end 2001 = .00867 euro
@ end March ‘02 = .00866 euro

SDR (Special Drawing Rights) unit value
@ end 2001 = 1.4245 euro
@ end March ‘02 = 1.4297 euro

GOLD unit value (per troy ounce)
@ end 2001 = 314.99 euro
@ end March ‘02 = 347.32

Here, then, is the summary of the percentage performance of each asset over the quarter on a per unit basis:

dollar UP 1.0%
yen DOWN 0.1%
sdr UP 0.4%
gold UP 10.3%

Through this, even the dimmest central banker can see the future glowing firmly; and we can, too.

With this compelling trend, there is no wonder that the European Central Bank and its national member CBs allowed, for example, the EUR 1.6 billion drawdown last week of their net position in foreign currency. This asset account of foreign paper now stands at a still massive EUR 258.6 billion to start the next quarter.

Meanwhile, the gold asset account continues its generally steady climb since euro-launch January 1999 where it stood on the books at 99.598 billion euro. Allowing for the bolstering of the gold asset account by 1.5 billion euro with the Greek membership in January 2001 (and not forgetting the measure of early Dutch, Austrian, and late German sales in accordance with the Central Bank Agreement on Gold), the gold assets of the Eurosystem have performed nicely over the years, now valued at EUR 139.808 billion.

Look for more of this -- letting the winners keep running while the weaklings get cut from the team. I hope this summary has been helpful for showing gold in its new light.

Again, here's a reminder of the first element from ECB president Duisenberg's September 26th 1999 joint Statement on Gold from Washington, D.C.:

"Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves."



Black BladeJobless Claims Log Surprise Rise#7272304/04/02; 14:45:45


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of new U.S. jobless claims filed last week skyrocketed by 64,000, partly due to applications for a new government program that extends unemployment benefits for 13 weeks.

Black Blade: Note that recession level unemployment growth is often quoted at 400,000. The BLS announced 460,000 new unemployment claims (partly due to extended benefits). However, these are "seasonally adjusted" numbers (read statistically manipulated). Many others simply do not qualify for extended benefits. Tomorrows numbers are expected to show 50,000 new jobs. I seriously doubt it though as these numbers will be massaged as well – I expect to see additional job losses as there has been for several months.

Siochain@Hipplebeck#7272404/04/02; 14:46:39

Actually both sides have a dream of having it all...that's why they are enduring a nightmare....and the world faces a potential for a Major war.

Both have to give up their dreams and face reality of compromise...which so far they appear unwilling to do.

By the way, speaking of dreams...I had a strange one several weeks ago where I was seeing the Dome of the Rock blow up....I hope this was also a nightmare and not a premonition...for the women of my family seem to have a Celtic strain where dreams often come about when strongly felt say a prayer ...for if that were to happen...the proverbial Hell would break loose!

Black Blade@Nickel62#7272504/04/02; 14:56:12

If we are talking about Charles Whitman, then we are talking about someone who was mentally ill. He had approached professionals and clergy for help, however, they were not equipped to deal with his illness. After he was killed by the Texas Ranger who entered the upper deck, his body was transported to the medical center. An autopsy revealed a brain tumor (the cause?). Perhaps not a real comparison to terrorist though.

The situation in the Middle East is much more complex. One man's terrorist is another man's freedon fighter. Asw far as killing innocents as rationale for the difference, then we maybe we should reevaluate the dropping of atomic bombs on Hiroshima, Nagasaki, the carpet bombing of Dresden (not a military target), The bombing of London, etc. Certainly many innocent were purposely killed in war and yet we do not refer to the combatants as terrorists. As I have said in the past - Murder millions and you're a conqueror, murder a few and you're a terrorist. Go figure.

- Black Blade

slingshotAre we there yet? Are we there yet?#7272604/04/02; 15:01:16


There are plenty of reasons in the world for Gold to rise and it still hanging around the $300.00 level. Every time we see a $2.00/$5.00/$6.00 rise in POG we tend to believe the BIG ONE is close at hand. Only to have the POG beaten back.
Looks like we are a family going on vacation. Driving to some amusement park and have two children in the backseat.
Yepper, you know that after about an hour driving they start in with, Are we there yet! Of course your answer is,Just alittle longer. You know you still have about 4 hours drive and you begin playing those on the road games. I SPY, Licence Plates,etc. So where is there? What is it going to take to get there? Yes, for the POG to rise.
Will it take China to invade Taiwan? North Korea to invade South Korea? Maybe. How about a full scale war in the ME.
Well, I don't think so. Not even a nuke or some Bio out break will do it. How can I say this. Just that with all that has happened GOLD IS DIRT CHEAP. So what do I think will do it. When it hits the public in the wallet hard.
When they finally realize it is just paper. If the stock market dropped again there would still be payroll deduction going into it. If you always do what you always done, you end up with the same results. They have to change their way of thinking. Otherwise, why would they take any provision to secure wealth. We are a society of credit. And credit equals debt. Gas is going up. Going to buy it anyway. Have to go to work. Grocery bill going up. Got to eat. Electric bill going up. Have to have lights. They public knows it going to take more fiat for the same things yet they fail to make the connection on how to preserve wealth. So, THERE is when it hits the wallet. That paper is just paper. By that time it will be too late for some. The warning signs are there. Argentina and Japan Knows. Until the general public of any country gets a jolt and the rug pulled out from under them, Its is my opinion gold will be slow to rise. But rise it will. So along the way, accumulate and enjoy the veiw.
All the roadsigns are there. We just have to be patient and follow them.
Heck, Are we there yet!


PizzFirst Quarter Earnings - Or "When the Worm Turns"#7272704/04/02; 15:02:05

Must be real tough in the COO offices this quarter. Trying to justify multi-million dollar salaries, bonuses, etc with LESS THAN REAL NUMBERS to publish.

If my intuition is correct, nearly all public companies books are either pushed or at least aggressive. They've had to do it to keep their stock prices competitive and to keep their investors happy.

Now thanks to Enron, not only are the beancounters keeping the current books straight (or straighter) they are also on a witch hunt and are reserving the heck out of anything that has been optimistically booked (nice term for fraud) from quarters past that had been negotiated past the auditors. (Final numbers are negotiated just like barter - believe it).

Controllers are not intimidated in this environment and the real laughing matter from their point is that their marketing executives can't even gripe or put a spin on the fact that they feel current numbers aren't reflective of what they did in the past quarter.

What are the executives going to say?? We feel current numbers are low because we've been pumping our books in the past? I don't think so.

Market support seems to be drying up. Kind of like sliding real fast over thin ice on a frozen pond. When your momentum (earnings) slows, the ice has a bit of a problem supporting your wieght. JPM at 40 plus earnings???? Wish I could throw them a golden anchor.


JCTexnickel62 (04/04/02; 14:36:43MT - msg#: 72720)#7272804/04/02; 15:08:11

Nickel62, I just saw you post. If you don't mind, I'll have to get back to you later today, or in the morning.

For now, Charley was a great guy, the All-American type. Some of his other friends & I were talking about him the other day. All of us felt like he simply "went nuts." Not the type to kill a bunch of people, especially his mother and wife. He absolutely adored both of them.

But killing innocents is NOT okay....even when a friend does it.

Sorry, but have to get back to you later.

Black BladeRetail Job Cuts Have Accelerated#7272904/04/02; 15:12:04

Retail Job Cuts This Year Could Be the Worst in at Least Two Decades


NEW YORK (AP) -- The pace of retail job cuts, which increased dramatically after Sept. 11, has accelerated in 2002 and this year's losses could be the worst in at least two decades, as the industry consolidates, according to a major employment study to be released Monday.

Black Blade: This doesn't sound like much of an economic recovery to me. In a recovery one would expect more consumer spending and therefore more hires in retail. Not a good sign – in a word "GRIM"

As always, get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, and get a nonperishable food storage and basic goods program started.

Black BladeOil Prices Close Lower After Bush Orders Powell to Middle East#7273004/04/02; 15:17:48

NEW YORK -- Oil prices tumbled Thursday after President George W. Bush called on Israel to withdraw from Palestinian territories and announced that he was sending Secretary of State Colin Powell to the Middle East in a bid to end the violence.

At the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for May delivery slumped 98 cents, or 3.6%, to settle at $26.58 a barrel, after setting a new six-month high of $28.35 during intraday trading. June crude oil surrendered 85 cents, or 3.1%, to $26.81 a barrel....

Black Blade: This is much of the reason for the sudden reversal of Oil and Gold today. Oil had hit prices above $28.00/bbl, and soon as Dubya gave his speech prices tumbled. Apparently there's a lot of faith in Dubya's and Colin Powell's abilities. We shall see.

miner49ernickel62 @ 72717#7273104/04/02; 15:17:52

Yes, yes, yes... well put...!

Then there's the additional consideration of each firm having to keep up with its most daring rival. If firm X, is willing to take certain risks to eek out a little more return to outdo its competition, each similar competitor generally has to undertake these practices to keep up, as the typical investor does not know enough of what goes on under the hood to satisfactorily gauge the additional dangers, and thus make a sound risk/reward discrimination.

BoxmanBlack Blade is famous!#7273204/04/02; 15:32:37

Well, maybe a slight exaggeration, but still nice to see him quoted elsewhere. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy, given all the insight to gold and energy that he has given us.

BB, you're not going to start charging us, are you?

Best regards.

The whole segment:

An interesting USAGOLD post:

USAGOLD (04/03/02; 16:34:36MT - msg#: 72645)
Black Blade, Siochain. . . .ALL
Something interesting is going on in the overall gold derivatives' positions. The top three U.S. gold bullion banks' positions fell from $73.2 billion in Dec00 to $48.9 billion in Dec01 reflecting the overall reduction in the gold carry trade positions over the course of 2001. John Doody (Gold Stock Analyst) says "recent CB efforts, overt and covert, are designed to keep a short-term lid on gold's price, effectively 'holding the door open' for the commercial banks to get positions squared, or get out all together. If one of these major banks was to require rescue by the Fed or the German or UK Central Bank, it would be far more damaging to world economies, and the rescue more costly, than to keep a lid on gold and allow the big commercial banks get out with survivable losses."

Taking a closer look at the Gold Derivatives Table published at the News & Views page (linked above), one can see that most of the reduction has occurred at J.P. Morgan which went from $30.5 billion 12/00 to $7.3 billion 12/01. I find this very interesting. That makes two out of the big three American gold derivatives' players showing a reduction to the $7 billion level.

Is it now Chase's turn in 2002 to move to the $7 billion level?

I think Doody's right. There holding the door open with derivatives in order to exit their carry trade positions or get the losses to a manageable level -- a workout as we have described many times before. And Chase may be the last to squeak through before the gold demand slams it shut.

This is the best evidence available why gold might be ready to explode. It's like holding a spring with your foot -- when you let go you'd better get out of the way.

Everywhere you look in gold's numbers -- derivatives, the LBMA, etc -- the numbers are telling us that the gold carry trade and mine lending are being unwound.

This is one of the most solid indicators I've seen in a long while why the knights and ladies at this Table might take heart - - Nay, not just take heart, but tip their flagons in celebration.

The battle is being carried, the war won.


TownCrierStrad Master, how is it that you feel Jensen's material to be inflamatory?#7273304/04/02; 15:40:41

It's certainly gritty in its detail, but I'm not hearing anything from him that I haven't also been hearing on the televised news -- CNN to cite an example.

In recent days I've received scathing e-mail from all sides, asking why we would dare muck up our website with this Jensen nonsense since he "clearly has a pro-Israeli bias" according to one visitor and he "is grossly sympathetic to Palestinians" according to yet another. I'll assume that it is either one of these two positions that have you frustrated, rather than his other Mideast regional commentary.

So, which of the two is Jensen's handicap, or can it be both at once? Can it be that some people unknowingly filter the same commentary according to their own predispositions on the subject, overlooking the commonalities while focusing instead on the contentions? And just as surely, there are some people who can be at peace with everything, overlooking the differences while paying heed only to the points that fall on "their side". Yet some other people are like willow trees, bending whatever what the last wind blew; thus changing their viewpoint according to the last thing they heard. Others stand their ground against all winds, while yet others run headlong into any wind from any direction, merely for the sake of bending to no outside counsel.

Within the parameters of this discussion forum, the many items I post here are for informational purposes -- wind from many directions. I leave it to each man to assess the weather and thus chart his own course according to his craft.


Sierra MadreColin Powell to Middle East, Bush calls on Israel to withdraw from territories...#7273404/04/02; 15:50:07

What's going to happen? Nothing!

No earthly power can dictate to Israel. They will carry out their plans, or take down the whole world with them.

Please tell me I am completely mistaken!


YGMWorthwhile Cause...............#7273504/04/02; 15:51:31

American Justice for Americans -- No International Criminal Court for Us
> April 4, 2002
> Dear friend of liberty,
> The International Criminal Court (ICC) will soon become a reality. The
United Nations will hold a celebration for their new world court on
Thursday, April 11, 2002 in New York and Rome.
> The International Criminal Court will claim judicial supremacy over the
United States and its people. We are asking President Bush to make it clear
to the International Criminal Court that the supreme law of our land is the
Constitution of the United States -- not the ICC. Rescinding the American
signature to the ICC treaty that former President Bill Clinton authorized
would clearly express that conviction.
> If you haven't signed the petition to President Bush, please do so now. We
are in the process of preparing the petitions for delivery to the White
> Link to Petition:
> Also, please tell a few friends about this petition.
> If you are one of the 100,000-plus people who have already signed the
petition, thank you!
> Kent Snyder
> The Liberty Committee

YGMLiberty Committee.....Ron Paul,......#7273604/04/02; 15:59:54

Tireless Advocate of Gold and Liberty is at forefront again.....

The Liberty Caucus
Rep. Ron Paul
Rep. Roscoe G. Bartlett
Rep. John J. Duncan, Jr.
Rep. Virgil Goode, Jr.
Rep. John Hostettler
Rep. Walter B. Jones, Jr.
North Carolina
Rep. Jack Kingston
Rep. Butch Otter
Rep. Richard W. Pombo
Rep. Denny Rehberg
Rep. Bob Schaffer
Rep. John Shadegg
Rep. Bob Stump
Rep. Tom Tancredo
Rep. Pat Toomey
Rep. Zach Wamp
Rep. Dave Weldon

YGMRandy........(TC)#7273704/04/02; 16:07:12

Excerpt....-- wind from many directions. I leave it to each man to assess the weather and thus chart his own course according to his craft...........(TC)

Keep us informed of wind and it's directions. "All STORMS" start with a...... "Gentle Breeze"......YGM.

Pizz@Black Blade#7273804/04/02; 16:10:36

I had dinner at my best friends house last weekend. Hadn't seen him for a few weeks and asked him if he thought the economy had bottomed like the economists have said.

He looked at me kind of funny and said "Not Yet". I found out why a little later. His 25 year old daughter just got layed off last week, and his brother the week before. His daughter worked for the City and his brother worked in a support industry for telecom.

Trickle down effect from last year should start increasing lay-offs. Most of these will be (are) small companies and will not be picked up by the news media. Many companies in the Pacific NW held employees anticipating the "recovery", but now reality is setting in.

Second wave down won't be as noticable, but much more devastating to the economy.

Another real time economic flag. Our organization has had 3 burglaries in last two months. Hadn't had any for previous two years.

Should be at least a 3rd wave next year, but that will probably be banckrupsy related as the small businesses finally throw in the towel.

Tough times ahead as we know. I'll have a real good idea when reality really starts to kick in, because I work in retail auto, and we still can't find people willing to sell cars. Just as soon as I start seeing resumes come in for sales with Boeing, Lucent, etc. as previous employers, we'll be close to the bottom, or at least a lot closer. Until then, the ship (economy) is just taking on more water.


nickel62JCTex Thank you for the insight...It really is a very small world isn't it...#7273904/04/02; 16:12:55

I was friends in high school with Willie Wolf who was killed a few years later in a police shoot out in LA. He was in the house with the other members of the Symbonese Liberation Army when the (he was the one white guy that Patty Hearst fell in love with or was raped by depending on who you believe) police snipers shot it up and set fire to it. I also like you think they probably did the right thing. I was just stunned that the quiet very peaceful guy I knew ended up that way less than two years after we were playing tag in the yard together. Strange world sometimes.
SiochainToday was Chase's Turn#7274004/04/02; 16:13:25

From the cafe:
It's The Same Old Song?

It's The Same Old Song, brought to you by The Four Tops and The Gold Cartel. But is it? Maybe yes, maybe no. Chase was the massive seller today on Comex, pounding away at all those who dare be long gold in defiance of His Majesty's cabal and rigged market. The arrogant Gold Cartel has been seriously challenged and they don't like it, so they are doing what they always do – sell, sell, sell, to take gold back below $300 in order to quiet down the newly created excitement over the precious metals. They do so by mobilizing their resources, which means draining more of the west's central bank gold reserves.

It is the same modus operandi used over an over again the past many years. The only question is whether they will get away with it this time. Is the physical gold market so strong that their mobilized resources are inadequate to get the job done? Has The Gold Cartel been found out to such an extent that the big investment players of the world are going to take them on? My guess is that the answer to both those questions is YES!

We shall see and it may take weeks, but the feel of this gold market is much different than the ones of days gone by. Today's Comex gold close was certainly different than in past years as it finished $2 off the lows. In the past gold would have closed near the lows and below $300 after the kind of effort Chase put in today.

The day-to-day is practically impossible to predict, especially when one of our adversaries is the U.S. Government, but gold and silver could take off again at any time. That is why trading in and out is very dangerous. A move of a lifetime is upon us. It is not a time to be out of position.

Silver closed a $4.60/$4.64 gap on the May contract, finishing in the middle of that gap. A highly regarded silver local loves the silver close and the fact that the gap was not violated to the downside. His feeling is that some commercial silver shorts are going to cover fairly soon.

The U.S. economic news was dreadful this morning:

Washington, April 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. initial jobless claims surged last week to the highest level in four months, distorted by a new law permitting workers whose benefits had expired to apply for an extension.

State unemployment offices received 460,000 new applications last week, up 64,000 in the week that ended Saturday, the Labor Department said. A week earlier, initial claims rose by 20,000.

SiochainFIGHTING BACK!!!!#7274104/04/02; 16:15:27

A thought for your consideration.....

How about a new against the Bullion Banks and Market Manipulators

IF every time we hear of a particular group such as Chase today, we write to them as well as newssources etc

Further...if you have an account with them...demand answers and if need be close the account and let them know why very specifically

Yesterday in the post I made from the cafe, it was mentioned that Schwab was shorting gold stocks heavily yesterday...well Schwab is one of my well as for my Mother's estate as well as two brothers

I got on the phone and demanded to know what the story was...I got moved up several times...I let them know that if I found out that THEY were doing the shorting ..first my account and then the others would be moved

They claimed if any shorting it was done on behalf of clients...I followed up with an e-mail to Jim Puplava...who was kind enough to answer confirming that his sources said it was Schwab shorting but they did not know if for their own account or clients.

I got follow-up calls from Schwab today to make sure I was a happy camper...they know I am disturbed but since no proof it was done for their own account...they said no,,,then for now the accounts stay

I think this approach could work if we all did it ...making sure that first your broker cannot use your shares to short...and then if you hear that your broker is negatively impacting...then raise a ruckus

Deal with ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY (GOLD!!!) banks...brokers...and raise cane with the others...very loud...wide ...and clear!!!!

Anybody who deals with Chase should call...e-mail etc your displeasure and let them know that you may be changing ...others can also write!!!!

Let's get going...we may be small...but lose enough accounts and it hurts some...and deprives them of funds to further their dirty work...DEAL WITH GOLD FRIENDLY BUSINESSES!!!

Sierra MadreOn Sovereign Powers in this world#7274204/04/02; 16:57:20

I call that country a Sovereign Power, which is run by its ruler or rulers as he or they see fit, whatever other countries may think of it.

I see only these Sovereign Powers in the world at the present time: China, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Cuba, Syria, and of course, Israel.

I do not include the U.S. as a Sovereign Power. Nor any European power.

China is treated with kid gloves, for very good reasons: 1.3 billion Chinese plus nuclear weapons.

North Korea is treated gingerly, it also has nuclear weapons and a strong-willed government. It is classified as part of an "axis of evil", which includes Iran and Iraq, which have resisted being pushed around.

Libya does its own thing, but is quiet about it. Syria is also its own master. (seems to me)

Cuba belongs to Fidel, and no nonsense there.

And nobody, but nobody, tells Israel what to do or not do.

A showdown between these powers, would leave only Israel/U.S. and China. The others can be overcome by the U.S., with heavy losses, perhaps, but they can be levelled.

So that would leave Israel/U.S., against China.

That's the way I see it. Tell me I am all wrong, please! (I may be simplifying too much)

"Them as can, DO; them as can't, send envoys."

Facing the facts is disagreeable. I hope I am not sent to Siberia again, for this.


Belgian@ Sir Strauss Randy#7274304/04/02; 17:12:51

Thanks for the ECB/euro/Gold drift posting ! Driving on Another's trail to the game park...but w're not there yet ! (smile slingshot). Regards, Belgian.
RobotGuySlingShot #7274404/04/02; 17:18:07

Oooh, I hope I'm not the one screaming 'are we there yet' in the back seat, my dad used to whack me for that one. "Shut up, you're driving me nuts, you'll know when we get there"

Anywho, I didn't mean to come across as wondering if anyone could predict any immediate radical changes, but just more or less a daily commentary of reasonable speculative analysis.
Like the example I provided of my opinion of what might transpire tomorrow and with reason if the curiosity is there. We could simply state that I don't think anything major is going to happen, but that leaves an idividual's statement open to definition of what major might be.

All I mean to say is that I often see cause before explaination, but I would enjoy also hearing explanation before cause. I think we have enough brain power in this forum to make educated speculations, but that is often something people wish to keep private for fear of being wrong, and having someone point it out.

My dear friend would you care to speculate what might happen with the price of gold by tomorrow's close? I gave my unsupported whim! I have reason, but very basic.



AU_Poor@Sector - your post today from Stephen Roach#7274504/04/02; 17:19:55

Thanks for the Roach article.

If he's right about a double-digit devaluation of the dollar, this should be a significant factor in raising the price of PMs especially gold.

Do your sources give a time-frame? I got into PMs several years ago thinking this was imminent but the amazing, levitating dollar has persisted in spite of all the fundamentals.

Canuck@ Hipplebeck#7274604/04/02; 17:46:53

Saw your posts today.

My manager is Palestian, his family fled Israel in 1972. Almost each day I stop by his office for more info., more stories. He is obviously anti-Israeli and tries to re-count episodes in a neutral light but I feel his pain. He normally ends our conversations by expressing the horrors in that area as 'a way of being'. It has been a powder keg for a long, long time. The other day I asked him what was the root of all evil, his story mirrors your post earlier.

I have emailed your post to him, I hope that is okay.

Your other post regarding inflation is interesting. As interest rates have fallen in the last year and a half, closing down on gold borrowing costs I noticed gold began to rise. Inflation has been neglible (apparently?) so I wonder if inflation is the driving force. I tend to believe it is the spread between inflation and what one can earn in US treauries. Gibson's paradox, low and behold. I watch the Canadian Bond Index for the 'real return rate', presently at 3.70%. I wonder what 'inflation index' it uses? [ ;) ]

So if one is buried in government securities that are fighting to stay above water, ala closing spreads, and rising risks, would one, should one spread risk in gold?

We hear the ancient arguments of inflation/deflation being good/bad for gold which I now tend to believe is hogwash. Either can be good/bad depending what pays better, yes? Bonds at 15% while inflation is 15% (1980ish) is the same as bonds at 2.5% while inflation is 2.5% (2000ish). Now let's throw in a war, overvalued dollar, an increasing gold supply/demand deficit and ask yourself what 'spread' is tolerable?

So 'real inflation' is 5%, not the reported CPI 2% and bonds are hurting because the phoney SM is rising and what do you have, a negative spread, RED ALERT!! So now we have a theoretical rising SM, pushing bond yields up while the economy is not ready for rising interest rates, oh no! The SM cannot stand rising rates presently while inflation pressures stand ready to smash the entire recovery merciless, RED ALERT! RED ALERT!

Throw Bush in the mix not knowing whether to urinate or pull up his zipper, Morgan Stanley's CA crunch (thanks sector) and we have trouble. One really has to ask oneself, what is the stock market doing? Can you say the government(s) are now running the funny farm!!

I am almost finished reading the crooked nonsense during the 1980 silver bull at the CBOT and Comex, what a joke. The silver longs were jammed, cornered and near beaten. The commodities market is a scam. The stock market is a farce. Let's see, the DJIA has been flat at 10,000 for how many years now while every other 'indicator' has been beaten into an inert mass. Well let's 'manage' 30 stocks okay! Give me a break.

Let's see these buffons 'manage' the bond and currency markets. Gold is a tiny, tiny market, of course it's managed, it's linked to inflation and the dollar and a host of other tangibles. Let's manage this tiny entity so that the monster that we can't control looks like it's under control, good idea, eh?

Why does government mess with stuff they don't fathom? They meddle and tinker and soon they are over their heads. Now we have this monstrosity of a mess that is unmanageable.

Mr Gresham"Who now remembers the Armenians?"#7274704/04/02; 17:54:19

" 'WHO NOW remembers the Armenians?' Hitler asked, just before he embarked on the destruction of European Jewry. Precious few, it seems. As the memorial day for the Nazi genocide against the Jews was proclaimed by Mr Blair this
week, there was not a single reference to the slaughter of one and a half million Armenian Christians by the Ottoman Turks in 1915. The world's first holocaust - and Hitler's inspiration for the slaughter of the Jews - was ignored."

Pizz@Robot Guy#7274804/04/02; 18:00:12

Not to throw water on your idea, but no one can predict accurately over the short term. So why try?

Day to day or even week to week price predictions are an exercise in futility. Way too many variables. You can both be right, for all the wrong reasons, or wrong, for all the right reasons or anywhere in between. Every once in a while a psychic, astrologer, or market advisor gets lucky like a crap player who makes 15 or 20 passes once or twice in a life time. If they're smart they'll write a book or start a subscription service and cash in quick. Ever wonder why if these people are so good, why do they have to take the time to write a book or advise others? Out of the goodness of their heart.?

It's hard enough trying to figure out which way the macro tides are running. Stock's APPEAR to be overvalued based upon everthing I have absorbed from many areas and gold and silver APPEAR to be undervalued. We are also printing more fiat than we are mining metals. EVERYTHING can change tomorrow morning, and probably will, somewhere.

Any day to day speculation also encourages people to trade, and that's gambling in my book. It will do more harm than good to those who try, IMHO. Many very intellegent people have tried and failed to beat the markets consistantly and failed. Intelligence is to wisdom as fiat is to wealth. I'd rather be a wise gold holder than a smart speculator.


SiochainGold as a Safe Haven#7274904/04/02; 18:06:54

From CNN Money Watch:

Gold Aims to Recapture Its Lustre as a Safe Hedge
in Troubled Times
Source: Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News
Publication date: 2002-04-03

Apr. 3--After years of playing the part of Cinderella to
other more-favoured financial assets, gold is finally
shaking off its dowdy image and taking a shot at gaining
the prize for best-performing asset market of 2002.

Since 1997, $300 (UKpound 208) an ounce has been a ceiling
for gold as a combination of central bank auctions and
lending to hedge funds, forward sales by gold producers
and the much-touted death of inflation conspired to keep
the price well below its historic high of $870 hit in

To those gold bugs who have never given up hope that
this once lauded store of value would again take its
rightful place in the pantheon of credible financial instruments, the poor performance of the commodity
has been nothing short of a conspiracy.

Indeed, according to many gold aficionados, particularly
those at the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee, the US
Federal Reserve, the US Treasury and European central
banks, in league with major US investment banks, have
conspired to keep the price of gold low.

Gold broke through the $300 level to reach a two-year
high of $307.80 on 8 February. But the move did not last
long, and as the price drifted off German Bundesbank
President Ernst Welteke conveniently speculated that
Germany might at some stage start selling gold. The
timing of his statement was seen by many as an attempt
by the central banks to ensure the price of the commodity remained capped below $300. However, the price has
since rebounded, trading back above the key $300 level
last week.

The latest rebound has been driven by new-found interest
from the hedge funds, many of whom are betting that
persistent selling by large investment banks to keep
the price down, and central bank comments to achieve
the same end, will ultimately fail to cap the upward

Indeed, the talk now is that this so-called cartel is
about to get its come-uppance, with some gold optimists suggesting gold may hit $600 or even $1000 an ounce.

The Enron scandal has brought to the fore the issue of
cartels and especially the role of so-called bullion
banks that reportedly have very large short positions
in gold via the derivatives market. These are now being
squeezed as the price of the commodity rises. Indeed,
there is wildfire speculation among some US gold
watchers that if the price of gold moves even $20-$30
higher we are going to see these shorts getting hammered.

There are plenty of other reasons why gold and gold-related stocks are worth serious consideration. As well as Enron,
the markets also have to contend with Argentina's debt
default and the huge bankruptcy cases of US companies.

Another factor favouring gold is the quadrupling of
purchases of bullion by Japanese consumers worried about
the safety of their bank deposits. Also, investors in
the Middle East have started to actively purchase the
metal as tensions over Iraq, Israel and Palestine mount.

Finally the all-powerful US dollar, which has held up
remarkably well in the face of a weaker US economy,
evaporating corporate profits and heightened worries
over the threat from terrorism, may be set for a downturn,
which usually means higher gold prices.

Against this backdrop there is a genuine case for thinking
that gold provides an attractive hedge against financial
and political stress.

However, gold has to become more than just an icon of
gold bugs, conspiracy theorists and short-term speculators. Instead it needs to broaden its appeal as an asset among mainstream investors anxious to protect themselves in an increasingly uncertain financial and political environment

Black Blade@Boxman - Lemetropolecafe Post#7275004/04/02; 18:16:49

I thank you anyway, however, I think your accolades should be directed toward our host MK. As it was his post about the "disappearing" Gold derivatives. Cheers!

- Black Blade

BTW, how's the economic "container indicator" these days?

Carl HRe: FIGHTING BACK#7275104/04/02; 18:17:05

Not patronizing the brokers would probably not hurt them that much (it would, however, make you feel better). Consider this instead -- in most brokerage accounts your shares can be used by others for shorting. If memory serves me, the shorting party need not even be at the same brokerage house. (I do not know if shares held in a retirement account can be used for shorting -- that is a point that I have been meaning to research.) What I might suggest is that owners of shares in mining companies place those shares in a situation where they cannot be used for shorting. One way of doing this is to take posession of the stock certificates (This is what I have done for our non-retirement account). It is a pain, but you then know that your shares are not being used against you. In my case, it has also helped temper the desire to sell on every little bump.
slingshotRobotGuy#7275204/04/02; 18:20:02

Cause before Explaination

If cause before explaination is simular to cause and effect,why not. Gold should close at $298-$299.
I'm getting use to the ups and downs. There may have been some sabre rattling but nothing unusual. The ME tension has a messenger on the way and Hope has filled a void for the time being.The news of Argentina and Japan has run its course and even A. Anderson is beginning to go to the back burner. The media has turned its eye to the Catholic church and its doing and the masses are lulled into a sense of security. The demand for gold has eased as some now want to wait and see what happens next so I would expect a slight down turn but not to break the support level.

Mr GreshamDisappearing Derivatives: BB, MK, Randy, anyone?#7275304/04/02; 18:25:02

I've gotta be quick with this or I may not get it out today at all, but HOW could they disappear without driving the price back up?

Only thing I can think of is options, which, if you can get enough time to go by, can expire out of the money. Those meanwhile might have shown up at great nominal value, but not much actual profit with small premiums.

Shorts, and (I think) swaps, require actual buying (or paybacks) to cover, right? Equal effect on the other end. So where do the derivs go?

You can't postulate a mountain of derivatives driving AU down from 500 to 270, and covering most of it sends it only back up to 300???????

If some dumb turkey Enron-style was found to take the other side from these banks, then they had to fork over some real cash to do it, or these banks wouldn't be off the hook, would they?

Help me with the disproportionalities here, willya?

Cavan ManMr. Gresham#7275404/04/02; 18:29:31

Let us not forget the Ukranians during the Stalin era and the Irish in the mid-19th century. Many Greeks were slaughtered by the Turks as well.
Black BladeMr Gresham and Cavan Man#7275504/04/02; 18:33:13

Then again if you want to discuss holocaust the we can't leave out the American Indian. There was a US governmnet policy of genocide. The US government even went as far as using biological weapons (small pox infected blankets). We in the US are certainly not blameless when it comes to genocide.

- Black Blade

USAGOLDMr. Gresham. . . .#7275604/04/02; 18:47:57

Excellent question. . . .Options do not have to be covered. They can expire worthless. As such, for the so-called "cabal", they are a cost of doing business -- always have been . Q. What the business? A. The gold carry trade.
RockgrabberPerhaps a decent stategy for those in the paper markets.#7275704/04/02; 18:50:25

This is for those of you who may be looking for a way to profit in the paper markets. (probably best off just skipping this one over) First you have to make it so you dont have the tendency to lose money over and over. Next you must take money out of your winning posotions, with still keeping them. Those are the two principles for this idea. OK example. You have to enter you positions with a straddle (A put and call) Gold is at 300, buy a 305 call. Then buy a 295 put. Lets say you are bullish, even with the market rigged, for the purpose of how to take profits and keep from losing money, I need to clarify this is for the bullish position. For the profit strategy is different if you are bearish. Now if the position drops to say 295. You keep your 305 call sell your 295 put (may need to drop a bit below 295 I realize) for double what you paid for it. OK so you sell the 295 put you own and buy a 290 put and a 300 call. Now you own a 305 and 300 call and a 290 put. With no loss even though the market went against you, your put profit is in another put and a call. Now say it falls to 290 (or a bit below). Sell your 290 put once again. Keep your 305 and 300 calls and add another 295 call and a 285 put. You now own a 305,300,&295 calls and one 285 put. Now see you are ready for a spike. Just do it that way incase you are wrong about being bullish in paper.-------
Now what do you do if the market goes up when you enter you initial posotion. Think about it and you can come up with a strategy. If you make a killing with this technique you can buy me gold here at CPM and let me know. Personally I cannot trade. I am 28 and have a mess of a tax problem, and no credit. I have studied for 8 years (While commercial fishing) and 3 times lost my trading account. So carefull taking this advise!! ahahah. Not kiddin though, I bet that works very well. I should have listened better to Sir Trail Guide back in those ol days. With this technique I believe I would have been fine however. If you see any holes in this let me know if you would. Thanks

Cavan ManFurther if I may....#7275804/04/02; 18:55:50

Mr. Gresham

One could also ask; "Who now remembers the Orthodox"? Orthodox Christians have been murdered by the tens of millions in the 20th century. Most of the Armenians you refer to are counted among those numbers. The horrors of Nazi Germany were far eclipsed in these many slaughters. She is called "the Church of martyrs" for good reason.

Black Blade: Thanks and cheers!

GrubstakerGOLD $$ REALITY..#7275904/04/02; 18:56:17

LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - World supply of mined gold may plummet by nearly 30 percent by 2010 unless bullion prices rally and prompt miners to bring untapped deposits on stream, a mining study showed on Thursday.

Toronto-based mining investment banking and research firm Beacon Group Advisors forecast global gold output falling this year for the first time in two decades, reflecting years of low prices and slashed exploration budgets.

Supplies should continue to fall, with the decline accelerating after 2006 as output dropped from mature mines in the United States and Canada.

"A gold price above $325 is needed to prevent the decline," Beacon Group managing director Don MacLean told a mining conference where the study was presented.

The findings are likely to encourage gold market bulls who see the prospect of reduced mine supply driving prices above $300 a troy ounce, where bullion has been capped for most of the past two years.
end of article.......
During the early-mid 1990's the "accepted" and often quoted mining "break even" $$ price of GOLD was accepted as $325. Any price below this point was considered a bargain for us physical buyers. As the "new economy" madness ensued this price "evolved" into $275...well folks it's time for the wake up call here....the GOLD bear days are gone and any opportunity to accumulate at below $300 are numbered (if not already past)...
I will state for the record;
Soon we will most certainly see the return to the $325 "break even" price..any accumulation of PHYSICAL GOLD BELOW THIS PRICE WILL BE PERCIEVED AS A BARGAIN...funny how reality seems to change...kind of like "pro forma " earnings..alà "spin"..

silvesterWaverider#7276004/04/02; 19:12:48

Hey Waverider,

Do we know how much of the Arab 2.4 trillion is in the Dow or the Nasdaq? How many total foreign and domestic dollars are in the Dow and the Nasdaq?

Mr GreshamBB, Cavan Man#7276104/04/02; 19:28:10

No, it wasn't a specific group of victims I was after. It is honoring ALL of them, by honoring the slogan "Never again", to which I fully subscribe. To anyone -- anywhere. The details may be sticky (especially in this instance) but the principle still holds. And re-asserts itself in just about every news headline each day.

Gandhi and King were on to something, and anyone who does not take their movements into consideration is shearing off the possibilities of better outcomes for the people they seek to help or liberate. Palestinians of all people should have been commended to this path, but I understand the difficulties they would have had in wholeheartedly adopting it. And, yet, what has been their outcome in the alternative?

BB: There was a guy named Chivington, up Denver way, whose men rode through the streets of Denver with the anatomical evidences -- too gross too detail here -- of their slaughter at Sand Creek skewered on the ends of their swords ("Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee" -- Dee Brown). That is one that was demonically inspired, I am sure, and makes me embarrassed to admit Anglo-Saxon heritage in common with these savages.

I think the smallpox blankets were the British during the 1763 war, but it was probably tried elsewhere by U.S. later (Sherman?). There's enough shame to go around...

Hey -- I believe in Black reparations, too. (So -- shoot me, fellas) -- I believe every descendant of a Black slave would be entitled to about $20,000 (back of the envelope) in a fair court settlement for denied wages. Clear conscience knows no price tag, true, but at least it's not an infinite one. It's just a message -- Don't do it again!

Chris PowellHowe lawsuit against BIS, U.#7276204/04/02; 19:42:38

Howe files motion for more proceedings in
suit against BIS and U.S. government:

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Chris PowellHowe lawsuit against BIS, U.S. government revived#7276304/04/02; 19:43:48

Reg Howe files motion for more proceedings in
his lawsuit against the BIS and U.S. government.

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nickel62Black Blade.#7276404/04/02; 19:44:11

Thanks for the insight into the Charlie Whitman situation. I was quite young at the time and never understood exactly what happened. I lost my first wife to a brain tumor so can understand what might have transformed him. Thanks again.
Chris PowellGATA cracks U.S. news media blackout#7276504/04/02; 19:44:41

GATA cracks U.S. news media blackout on
the gold price suppression scheme.

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TrapperSiochain#7276604/04/02; 20:06:51

Read your post about Schwab and the shorts. I too have lots of gold stocks at their place so I call. Well I never heard a man studder so much. Can you belive that he said it must have been Mr. Schwab who was shorting.Well I got no place with him but it is after hours.
Question do you have any more info cause I will find a gold friendly place spend my money?
Live small.

R PowellRockgrabber / Mr. Gresham#7276704/04/02; 20:19:49

Warning- post content concerns paper trading
Rockgrabber, I've often used your straddle opinion idea but think of buying both the call and put at the money, then sell whichever increases enough to cover the costs of two more (again one call and one put and again with the same market current at-the-money strike price). If the market is volatile enough the number of held options will increase with no more than the inital investment. A good size reversal profits on the larger number of options (puts or calls) accumulated. Buying more time (further out months until option expiration) as you accumulate increases the time frame.
This has not worked well in the gold market over the years because big moves in both directions are needed, along with discount commission rates, for this to work.
I've used it in copper, selling one leg of the straddle and then initiating another full straddle on every 2-3 cent move. With 3-4 cent moves another month's time can be included in the deal. Without price movement, the options loss value quickly with the passage of time.

Mr Gresham, if the large derivative positions in the gold market were from options sold then the sellers exposure to those would decrease with time. Options are time wasting assets for the buyer. So, by discontinuing the sales, the potential exposure (for the sellers) simply fades away with time. Also, I can not understand how anyone can even estimate the true potential exposure of Goldman or anyone since futures or options sold can be covered or the potential losses limited with other strategies. It gets incredibly complicated. Risky? Yes! Complicated Yes! Dangerous? Absolutely! How complicated? Risk in short deverative positions in gold or silver might be somewhat or even completely offset by long positions in the XAU index!
I am very suspect of any figures concerning anyone's position, even outright OTC sales as there are so many ways to offset risk. This does not eliminate risk, it offsets or transfers it. I consider my knowledge as barely adequate to play the game so please question my supposins but I'm supposin that the ever fluxuating derivative exposure may have been reduced with the time wasting nature of sold options and reduced through offsetting strategies. Perhaps there is a formula for how many Drooy shares must be bought to counter the potential loss for every sold call or future, with more Drooys bought for every dollar increase in POG after the options' strike price has been exceeded. Perhaps the potential losses have been limited with bought calls with higher strike prices? Perhaps the potential gain from every ten Drooy shares covers the spread between the short options potential loss up to the point (POG) where the loss is covered with options held at a higher srike price. My point is to express the complexity of the situation. Perhaps absurd but part of the puzzle nonetheless.
If they have greatly lowered the exposure, it has not been done without cost other than those that have lost value due to the passage of time. Sorry for talking shop here but it's an essential part of the question. It's the money management part of the game.

Black BladeEnergy futures prices undergo corrections #7276804/04/02; 20:44:52

By OGJ editors

HOUSTON, Apr. 4 -- Energy futures prices regressed Wednesday as international markets adjusted from earlier spikes this week. The May contract for benchmark US sweet, light crudes dropped 15¢ to $27.56/bbl on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while the June position lost 18¢ to $27.66/bbl. However, both rebounded in after-hours electronic trading to $27.65/bbl and $27.76/bbl, respectively.

Unleaded gasoline for May delivery fell 2.14¢ to 84.84¢/gal, wiping out the previous day's gain of 2.08¢. Natural gas for the same month was rolled back 14.8¢ to $3.51/Mcf, nullifying Tuesday's gain of 12.3¢. The May heating oil contract dipped 0.12¢ to 70.83¢/gal on the NYMEX.

The American Gas Association reported early Wednesday an unexpectedly heavy withdrawal of 65 bcf of natural gas from US underground storage last week, compared with drawdowns of 69 bcf the previous week and 51 bcf during the same period a year ago. That ended the traditional winter withdrawal season with a little more than 1.4 tcf of gas still in storage, up 804 bcf from last year. "We now expect storage levels entering next winter at the beginning of November to be at 3-3.1 tcf, based on an expected 2% year-over-year decline in domestic natural gas production," with a projected growth of 2.9% in the US gross domestic product, said Robert Morris of Salomon Smith Barney Inc. That economic growth should increase US demand for natural gas by an additional 1.75 bcfd, or 3%, this year, Morris reported Thursday.

Black Blade: Of course growth projections for natural gas are based on continuing production. The decline in natural gas will only accelerate as fewer drill rigs explore and produce natural gas. Decline rates have been accelerating as these producing fields age and reserves are not being replenished. Storage withdrawal rates are still higher than year ago levels. Meanwhile the situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate and threatens to spread to other regions. Thankfully the US is in an economic recession as we would be heading into another "energy crisis" that we are not prepared for (dodged another bullet?).

R PowellMr. Gresham/ Michael#7276904/04/02; 20:45:41

Carry trade included in derivative number?

I wonder if the large amount of gold, leased and sold over many years which is the true unwindable position is being included in the derivative exposure numbers?
If so, I'll echo your question. This gold carry trade gold has warped the supply/demand equation for these many years, I can't see how it could possibly be bought back without POG going into orbit.
Again, this leasing, carry-trade-created huge short position sets gold and silver apart as unique from all other commodities. This is said in reference to the manner in which they are traded. That gold and silver are money also clouds the issue, no?

sectorOptions on Options to secure a futures position which hedged a short with a double straddled alligator bull spread.#7277004/04/02; 21:07:45

Or how my brother got hosed trying to outsmart the big boys in gold

I must remember that some people actually can make money in the futures and options trade.

It's just that I swore an oath never to even try. Maybe I lost a fortune in doing so.

This gold trading thing is not as simple as the Elliot wavers would have you believe. My brother, a university associate professor, sent me all the pamphlets...he did all the due diligence. In the end he had kids and his priorities changed. He never did make too much money at it.

The point is that there are hundreds of very savvy Fed economists who have unlimited funds and time to set you up for failure in this manipulated COMEX market.

You win by being long gold with money you don't need.

Cutely trading in and out is needlessly risky in my view. The upside is 10X physical...just as it was in 1971. Maybe more now.

GATA and a small army of dedicated soldiers have exposed the truth that the Treasury is running a bit short of ammunition these days and that big, long players across the globe are now offsetting the cabal's past strength.

Swinging for the fences with paper options and COMEX futures just isn't necessary. The authorities can change the COMEX rules whenever they please. Ask the Pt players on the TOCOM. They may be getting close to yet another default in Platinum.

I have some physical. I don't calculate how much it's worth today vs. what I paid...I don't care now. It's in the future that I will care...when eyes will pop as I bring them out. I also have some unhedged miners...they manufacture and distribute actual "money". They are the JPMs of the future.

sectorKeeping Eyes on Japan and Mrs. Watanabe#7277104/04/02; 21:17:35


Gold sets standard in Japan
By Bayan Rahman in Tokyo
Published: April 3 2002 21:56 | Last Updated: April 3 2002 22:03

Concern about the Japanese economy, the state of the country's banks and now unease about tensions in the Middle East are continuing to send the Japanese public to their nearest gold shop to stock up on the precious metal.

Japanese households bought Y24bn ($180m) of gold in February, according to JP Morgan, and gold imports increased more than seven times from February 2001 to almost 20,000kg.

"It is certainly possible that a rise in demand for gold bars in Japan raised the international price of gold in February," said Masaaki Kanno, economist At JP Morgan. "The estimated purchase of gold in January and February is only 0.2 per cent of annual savings by the household sector. This implies that the impact of a change in Japanese householders' investment can be so big that it could affect the global market prices of financial assets."

Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo, Japan's leading retailer of gold bullion, reported a nine-fold year-on-year increase in retail sales in February, while Mitsubishi Materials, Japan's biggest non-ferrous metals maker, saw sales surge to 13 times last year's level.

Concerns about the health of Japanese banks, believed to hold large portfolios of non-performing loans, run deep, even though speculation about an impending financial crisis in March was proved wrong.

But talk of a "March crisis" saw many Japanese shift their money from bank deposit accounts into gold and other assets. Gold sales were also spurred by the government's decision to lift the guarantee on bank time- deposits of more than Y10m from April 1.

Although that deadline has now passed, the guarantee will be lifted from other types of bank accounts in April next year, leaving Japanese savers still fearful for their life savings.

The Financial Services Agency's report on its special inspection of the banks' non-performing loans, due out this month, is likely to deepen concern about the banks.

Meanwhile, Japanese corporations will begin to report their annual results, which are expected to reflect the bleak economic environment, from next month.

"Gold sales are still much higher than last year and that's because of the state of the economy and the banks. May and June could be another panic point that could trigger another big surge in sales," said Yoshihiro Matsumoto, head of the gold retail group at Mitsubishi Materials.

The price of gold futures has surged in Tokyo recently on fears that the Arab-Israeli conflict and tensions between the US and Iraq could spill into a bigger regional war, but retail investors continue to buy. "Usually the Japanese don't buy when the price goes up, but this time it's different," said Mr Matsumoto.

A broker at one of Japan's leading general trading companies said she expected gold retail sales to increase if the price fell even slightly. "The public are holding long positions in gold and enjoying the surge in prices.

"If prices fall, brokers and short-term traders will sell but the public will buy."

There is anecdotal evidence that Japanese investors are buying gold futures and other commodities, such as platinum. Platinum futures surged yesterday, sending the spot platinum price above $540 an ounce for the first time since July.

"It's calmed down since February's peak, when we had crazy sales. But even now people come in with tens of millions of yen and take several kilos of gold bars home with them," said Mr Matsumoto.

PizzR Powell#7277204/04/02; 21:34:54

Could this be possible:

Leased Gold = Mine Hedge Books??

Senario: Lease gold with a bank guarantee, sell gold, invest most of fiat, and buy forward contracts on margin with rest of fiat from hedge miners as insurance.

If you own the forward contract you do not have to sell, you can demand delivery.

Could our hedged miners be in a position where they can't cover directly and they are just going to have to deliver?

Who did the leasing? Enron partnership type entities set up for the sole purpose of controlling gold's price? Nice scam but the monkey wrench could have been 911 and mid east war. Even if gold spikes, it's the mines that get hurt, not the banks or leasers. Hmmmm...

Makes sense to me from a sort of conspiratorial mind set.


Mr GreshamBB: History lovers only#7277304/04/02; 22:46:15

I forgot before, in the heat of the post, but one of history's delicious ironies (to me) is that the National Yiddish Book Center, founded by Aaron Lansky & friends driving around the East in a beat-up van rescuing books, and a dying culture, is now located in a beautiful new library in the town named after the English commander who sent the Indians the smallpox blankets in the hopes of exterminating them.
Rockgrabber***Mr. R Powell***#7277404/04/02; 23:01:07

*** Regarding those straddle ideas. I have not fared so well in the past trying to short the stock market. I think any trading in any market for me in the future will (unless I find out it does not work for yet another unforseen occurance) include the use of the straddle technique.*****

If for nothing else having played in these markets has taught just what a mess they have created in the paper gold market. Many people who yeild the mighty power of wealth are rats and not to be trusted. Their interest does not look for your best. All they have to do is sell all the paper it takes to hold prices to wherever they wish. I am sure it wont be to long untill for some strange reason the premiums on physical gold rise. As a "temporary" physical shortage hits the markets. It wont be temporary most likely however. The paper players may never see the gains, and if they do they will be in dollars. I have to say the best reading I have ever just happened to come across has been here on this page ("The Gold Trail"). Gold in Hand looks better and better all the time.

Rockgrabber$$Mr. Black Blade$$#7277504/04/02; 23:16:13

$$Man I wish I could buy you a Negro Mendelo my freind. It sure is easy when all I have to do is come here and get all the great relavent stories you have found and posted. I bet you are a great guy to twist one up with. The pleasures that others must have had in your company at those times I am sure is super. I by the way loved the ant and grasshopper analogy. I live here in California (sorry). Its amazing what little brats are driving around on these roads here. Big Suburbans, BMW's, decked out trucks with motorbikes in the back. Peircings and scribble marks all over their bodys. They pay attention to not a thing, and this lifestyle the feel they deserve? I am definitly not going to cry for these folks I am sorry to say. Thank you for your efferts good sir. Cheers. $$

Sorry for the jibber folks. Wanted to let Mr. Black Blade know he is much appreciated in my eyes.

Black BladeMr. Gresham – Germ Warfare and the American Indian#7277604/04/02; 23:18:14

It would appear that the Brits also may have engaged in the American Indian Genocide. Lord Jeffrey Amherst commanding general of British forces in North America during the final battles of the so-called French & Indian war (1754-1763) apparently wrote of using small pox to "inoculate the vermine". These stories are reported, for example, in Carl Waldman's Atlas of the North American Indian [NY: Facts on File, 1985]. Waldman writes, in reference to a siege of Fort Pitt (Pittsburgh) by Chief Pontiac's forces during the summer of 1763:

... Captain Simeon Ecuyer had bought time by sending smallpox-infected blankets and handkerchiefs to the Indians surrounding the fort -- an early example of biological warfare -- which started an epidemic among them. Amherst himself had encouraged this tactic in a letter to Ecuyer. [p. 108]

Other sources:

See Ann F. Ramenofsky, Vectors of Death: The Archaeology of European Contact (Albuquerque, NM: University of New Mexico Press, 1987):

Among Class I agents, Variola major holds a unique position. Although the virus is most frequently transmitted through droplet infection, it can survive for a number of years outside human hosts in a dried state (Downie 1967; Upham 1986). As a consequence, Variola major can be transmitted through contaminated articles such as clothing or blankets (Dixon 1962). In the nineteenth century, the U.S. Army sent contaminated blankets to Native Americans, especially Plains groups, to control the Indian problem (Stearn and Stearn 1945). [p. 148]

The use of small pox as germ warfare was also used by the US Army against the Cheyenne and earlier against the Cherokee under orders from President Andrew Jackson.

See also Robert L. O'Connell, Of Arms and Men: A History of War, Weapons, and Aggression (NY and Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989):

Marking a milestone of sorts, certain colonists during the French and Indian Wars resorted to trading smallpox-contaminated blankets to local tribes with immediate and devastating results. While infected carcasses had long been catapulted into besieged cities, this seems to be the first time a known weakness in the immunity structure of an adversary population was deliberately exploited with a weapons response. [p. 171]

Anyway, it's all water under the bridge. We certainly don't live in a perfect world. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black BladeRockgrabber#7277704/04/02; 23:30:07

Why thank you. I used to live for a time in Hayward, Castro Valley, and (Gulp) Escondido many years ago. In many ways it was very nice, and in other ways I felt as though the inmates were running the asylum. Still, I have relatives and several friends living there. Two cousins in LA who are lawyers (one is even a "Jewish lawyer" in the Entertainment biz - as he constantly reminds me), and another is a Moravian minister in Oakland. Even so, I do have fond memories of how life used to be in "Kalifornia". Cheers!

- Black Blade

WaveriderSilvester#7277804/04/02; 23:47:17

"Do we know how much of the Arab 2.4 trillion is in the Dow or the Nasdaq? How many total foreign and domestic dollars are in the Dow and the Nasdaq?"

I don't know, nor do I know where one could find that information...maybe someone else here does? I think the Arabs are even guessing the 2.4 trillion figure in expatriated funds. I've seen a number of estimates suggested in the various Arab economic websites I've bookmarked.

You may find the above link of interest - good raw economic data. Check out the "Federal Debt Held by Foreign Investors" and the "US Balance on Current Accounts" - interesting given the article that Sector posted earlier today. Hope that helps at least a little. Cheers,


SpartacusRobert Mundell#727964/5/02; 06:27:36

Tommy PADDING to the BONE PILE#727974/5/02; 07:23:26,11337,679506,00.html

Interesting article!
nickel62Mr Gresham, I loved the website you posted of the "Yiddish Cultural Center" in Amherst#727984/5/02; 07:40:18

If the book center is as interesting as the web site commentary I can see why it has grown so tremendously. Thanks.
BelgianNice Coctail#727994/5/02; 07:42:17

Arabian oil calling for an embargo to Western-Israel supporters and Nobel prize winner Mundell calling for a single currency system based on the US$ !
As if an euro simply didn't exist !
Since the situation in the ME has NO peacefull solution...the present embargo (selective oil offer) is a prelude somewhat closer to oil for euro. Prof. Mundell feeling the heat threathening the dollar survival as reserve currency on an oil standard.
Arabian oil doesn't want the US to solve the 50 year old problem and favors an Euroland approach, without military force but rather a well "oiled" currency (euro)/gold - concept as pressure on Western hostiles with incompatable ambitions. Germany acts against the French euroblock, because of its alliance with Russia (gas+oil).

Sorry, Pof. Mundell, but y're a bit late with your single dollar-derivative currency !

RobotGuySlingshot - - - Thank you#728004/5/02; 07:44:44

Thank you for your ideas, and humouring my supposed waste of time, they were different than my ideas and it is very nice to hear someone else's ideas. I guess for me the excitement of possibly being right is similar to a guessing contest, but for the most part I do believe each of us has an inclination, however few are willing to share.
I can tell that you are an individual of stamina, and that a little informative guessing isn't going to destroy your day by the possibility of being wrong.
It was merely an interpretation that I was seeking, and it was an interpretation you provided.
You made my day!


Mr Greshamnickel62: Yiddish Book Center#728014/5/02; 08:27:10

My reaction was the same, and I forgot to mention it as you did. It is just such a clear example of intelligent people doing intelligent things in a situation of dire need, it deserves to be seen by anyone who appreciates such things.

I tried to visit while passing through the town but missed the closing time by an hour. I was permitted to stand in the central raised lobby and look out over the evidence of Hitler's final defeat. I find the idea of this place's existence thrilling, and I'm not even Jewish.

But I'm a guy who's still saddened by the loss of the Library at Alexandria 1600 years ago.

I met some of the people with the tattooed numbers on their arms at times in my youth, and I'll never forget the wisdom they had to offer as Holocaust survivors. But their survival was personal and they mostly wanted to leave the past behind. It was left for their grandchildren to rediscover the culture they had left behind.

The fact is that Europe's Jewish culture was about to suffer a "second death", and Lansky and others prevented it. This is true heroism, in my book. (I don't know what other libraries, if any, were being preserved in Israel or elsewhere, but the sheer volume of Lansky's discoveries says that the "aftershock" of the Holocaust was still in effect.) As a life's work, this is something I could be proud of.

This should also be a lesson that if you feel drawn to do something you believe is right, but think conceptually you are not the "right person" (or don't have "standing", in the words of a certain Boston court), well, maybe you should go ahead and explore it just a little bit further...

"Number of distinct Jewish languages: 18
Age of Yiddish in years: 1,000
Approximate percentage of the world's Jews who, until 1939, spoke Yiddish as their first or only language: 75%
Number of Yiddish speakers in the world in 1939: 11,000,000
Percentage of all Yiddish speakers killed in the Holocaust: 50% ...
"Total number of Yiddish books that experts, meeting in 1980, estimated were still extant and recoverable in all of North America: 70,000
Total number of Yiddish books recovered by the National Yiddish Book Center in 1980 alone: 70,000
Yiddish books we've collected to date: 1.5 million ...
"Folios of mint-condition Yiddish and Hebrew sheet music we recovered from a garage in Boro Park, Brooklyn, in 1986: 85,000
Folios of mint-condition Yiddish and Hebrew sheet music we recovered from a warehouse beneath the Brooklyn Bridge in 1992: 75,000
"Significant Yiddish library collections that existed in all of North America when we opened our doors in 1980: 6
Major university and research libraries where we've established or strengthened Yiddish holdings today: 455 "

YGMCNBC Talking Heads and other Economic Illiterati....#728024/5/02; 08:30:10

From New Australian article...

Gerard Jackson sums it up in this qoute from his latest article in the New Austrailian.....


The more anyone is promoted by the media and the rest of the economic illiterati as an economic thinker the more likely it is that they are an economic illiterate peddling half-baked ideas guaranteed to impoverish people......unquote

How True!


USAGOLD Market CommentaryWhy Is Smart Money Going to Gold?#7280304/05/02; 09:04:12

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USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Hard assets... Easy access!#7280404/05/02; 09:15:16

They make new BULLION every day.

They stopped making these BEAUTIES long ago.

A fixed supply has its advantages.

Call USAGOLD / Centennial to discuss the investment strategy that's right for you.

TownCrierHere's a collection of good reading for the weekend ahead#7280504/05/02; 09:24:11

Thanks again to Miner49er and to EVERYONE who provides their friends here with delving thoughts and discussion on gold, money and wealth.


WaveriderNY gold stretches shakeout below $300 then steadies#7280604/05/02; 09:42:46

"COMEX gold dipped back below $300 an ounce for the first time in nine days early Friday on dealer selling and liquidation of safe-haven positions booked during this week of violence in the Holy Land.

But the market quickly reclaimed the psychological support level, still nervous about one of bloodiest episodes in the Mideast in years while the head winds remained forceful in an overbought market, dealers said.

``The action has been a little spasmodic this morning,'' said Donald Tierney of Pell Brothers Futures. ``For the moment, with still enough uncertainties in view, it appears that the $300 level will hold.''

``The daily studies are still unwinding from overbought,'' wrote JP Morgan Chase analyst in a technical commentary Friday. ``However, looking at the bigger picture, we believe this is merely a correction within the underlying bull trend which is targeting a move to and through the $308.50 previous high.''

Funds have shown surprising fortitude with their holdings, and even stepped in to purchase more during a drop Thursday which held at $300, where their bids were reinforced by physical demand from hoarders from India and the Mideast.

Waverider: ? JP Morgan Chase analyst sees POG moving through $308.50? A Good Day to All!

TownCrierGOLD MARKET: "the head winds remained forceful" --Reuters#7280704/05/02; 09:51:36


NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - COMEX gold dipped back below $300 an ounce for the first time in nine days early Friday on dealer selling and liquidation of safe-haven positions booked during this week of violence in the Holy Land.

But the market quickly reclaimed the psychological support level, still nervous about one of bloodiest episodes in the Mideast in years while the head winds remained forceful in an overbought market, dealers said.

``The daily studies are still unwinding from overbought,'' wrote JP Morgan Chase analyst in a technical commentary Friday. ``However, looking at the bigger picture, we believe this is merely a correction within the underlying bull trend which is targeting a move to and through the $308.50 previous high.''
----(click URL for full article)----

More and more, the mainstream media are shedding their former anti-gold dispositions. Those with an eye to the realities of the physical market know its price (derived spot plus premium) has the potential to explode higher with very little warning should it happen that more people pay heed to the world around them and simply seek modest diversification. Further, any serious investment interest in gold ownership would likely very quickly reveal alternative "paper gold" as nothing more than paper which requires confidence and counterparty performance. Can you see how such items could rise early but then fall off a cliff even as physical gold swept onward and upward with increased momentum?

See my post yesterday (#: 72722). The European Central Bank (among others) is marking gold assets to market value -- and not by accident or without much forethought for the world ahead. Place your order with Centennial today and get your delivery in the pipeline.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Put a Foundation Under Your Portfolio#7280804/05/02; 09:53:30

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sectorTelcos Lament Continues...There's NO Recession!#7280904/05/02; 10:04:57

April 5, 2002
Nortel's debt turns to junk
Moody's downgrades credit rating three notches as major borrowing deadline looms
Mark Evans
Financial Post

Jim Young, Reuters
Nortel's credit rating remains two notches higher than that of ...

Nortel Networks Corp. had its credit rating downgraded to junk status yesterday by Moody's Investors Services Inc., amid concerns that the sharp downturn of the telecommunications equipment market will likely last longer and be much more painful than previously expected.


BTW The unemployment numbers from last week have been revised the rate is 5.7%

Are we having FUN yet?

Oh yeah...almost forgot...for the first time since the 1930's dividends have fallen for three consecutive years. But we aren't in a recession. Nope...NO RECESSION!

YGMCounterparty performance.....#7281004/05/02; 10:17:42

Can you spell...."Default"

Excert from previous T Crier post....

---interest in gold ownership would likely very quickly reveal alternative "paper gold" as nothing more than paper which requires confidence and counterparty performance.

***Pretty hard to have a default on what you can see, hold and hide!......In the case of public owned and traded CO.'s
which have major paper shorts & Derivative trade losses on the books, well we all know who gets left holding the bag. Not to mention they may be liable for debts/losses.....
Insiders like Brian Mulrooney/Barrick, and others too numerous to mention, have already found the lifeboats.

RobotGuySlingshot#7281104/05/02; 11:37:58

Well done! Your intuition was quite accurate! Gold closed today slightly under 300.
TruthcasterDid gold hold on at 300?#7281204/05/02; 11:46:06

What did gold end at? Did we hold the front lines at
300? I see here there's a post saying gold closed just
under 300, but bloomberg is showing it closed at 301.10
dwn. 90 cents. Good if it did.. Truthcaster

YGMNext Week...#7281304/05/02; 11:48:50

Cash on the sidelines....

IMO,,,if ME crisis continues next week we'll see renewed buying from the specs as I imagine there was alot of cash already sitting and more acummulated on the sidelines this week. That kind of money does not sit idle long and the only reasonable bet is PM's......World full of uncertainty out there and smart money follows old money......YGM
RobotGuyTruthcaster - - - Ahh yes, the age old question, what price is it really?#7281404/05/02; 12:44:04

I was referring initially to my trusty .gif stolen from a popular gold web site, and it gave me 299.80, but after a quick glance at NYMEX, I saw another value of 301.10 for the most recent close. Now I really am not sure what it is sitting at.
Gandalf the WhiteSir Robo's Question#7281504/05/02; 13:03:25

RobotGuy (04/05/02; 12:44:04MT - msg#: 72814)
Truthcaster - - - Ahh yes, the age old question, what price is it really?
You can choose any of the following --
From the USAGOLD page --
Which shows: Bid $300.00 Ask $300.50 Last $300.50
WOWSERS--What a long link --- Perhaps because it is far far away in Germany ! <;-)
which shows: close at $300.10 and a graph !!!
and click on the Bullion -- Interactive Gold chart and see:
Bid $299.8 Ask $300.3 Last $299.8
you could take a look at the often error ridden "K" chart !
Good luck

Old YellerMore from Stephen Roach#7281604/05/02; 13:22:28

Plus a very interesting commentary on the US dollar going forward.Congratulations to MSDW for speaking the unspeakable on Wall St.; the possibility of free liquidity moving to gold,both as a safe haven and as a poltical weapon to effect change.
CoBra(too)@ Sector's - Coming Adjustments to CA Deficit - #7281704/05/02; 13:59:42

By Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach, whom I've had the honor to meet together with Byron Wien years back.

Thanks Sector for putting it up. I find those two Analysts are still down to earth and just want to highlight the gist of the statement again:

*** "The longer the day of reckoning is put off," writes Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach, "the more severe the impacts of the adjustment process are likely to be." Roach is referring to America's coming current-account adjustment..."hints" of which, he says, "are already in the air."

*** Foreign capital inflows into the U.S. have slowed considerably in 2002. "In January, portfolio inflows into dollar-denominated assets slowed to just $11.3 billion, a marked deceleration from average monthly flows $44 billion recorded in 2001."

*** What should we expect if the trend continues? "As I see it," says Roach, "two aspects of America's looming current-account adjustment should be especially important [to financial markets] - weaker GDP growth and a falling dollar...A correction is coming, and there's no dark secret as to what that means. It's just a matter of when the denial finally cracks."

... I guess, it was Doug Noland, who has foreseen that portfolio inflows have to reach about 2 Billion $'s a day, just to keep up the status quo. Well now we have only about
1/3 of a Billion reaching the US shores, in order to shore up deteriorating CA. While Japanese, Europeans and others are accelerating their departure, as funds are increasingly needed at home.

Looks like High Noon for the goons at the FED - while they already try to rescue their bullion banking bums, scum or scams?

Whom do they wan'na kid? Me, You? cb2

CoBra(too)@ Old Yeller#7281804/05/02; 14:03:40

I got the liquor
but the Sheriff got it quicker ...

Similar thoughts across the big splash -
Regards - cb2

RobotGuyThank-you Gandalf, for the friday afternoon humour :)#7281904/05/02; 14:08:15

TownCrierCreated by popular demand! (i.e., one client, but that's enough for me.)#7282004/05/02; 14:13:47

From time to time I have brought forth an individual "Golden Chalkboard" page as warranted by events or discussion topics. Until now, there was no easy way for anyone to revisit these pages unless they bookmarked them, explored the forum archives, or found them with an internet search engine.

Here now for the first time I have thrown together an INDEX. Although for future reference you won't find this dainty little nothing of a thing on the homepage, (it's not worthy), you will find it on our site map. Has anyone discovered the whereabouts of that yet? I can be quite handy at times for site navigation.

As the weekend draws nigh, I'll be sure to raise a toast to the good health of the first person I see that manages to find and post the link to our sitemap.


TownCrieroops -- "IT can be quite handy at times..."#7282104/05/02; 14:18:02

The sitemap, that is. For "I" am never handy.

(Although I rhyme)


The CoinGuyHmmm...#7282204/05/02; 14:24:51

The CoinGuy
TownCrierCoinGuy#7282304/05/02; 14:35:39

"May you live to be a thousand years, sir."


BelgianCrude Oil#7282404/05/02; 14:44:28

The symbolic and selective embargo-call, expressed by Iran
is a different beast than what happened in the 1970-ties (1974 ATH) ! With Nixon having closed the dollar/Gold-window, POO was revaluating the dollar-reserve-currency WITHOUT having the present euro-alternative. The dramatic surge in POO was indiscriminate and the whole globe suffered from this renewed price-setting. Today, a total economic sanction is NOT wanted ! It is not the dollar as such that is targeted but rather the government behind that dollar and more precisely its (gvnmt) ME policy. This new way of "selective" oil-threath must be the result of inclination versus the euro and TG's concept.

But Iran's statement is only a post factum explanation of what already had been done : POO from 16$ to the 22$-28$ price zone. And therefore to be interpreted as a warning for more of the same if nothing changes drastically on the Palestinian question. The attitude of Russian (private) oil is of course an unknown. But they go/follow where the profit is ! Ties between Russia and Iran are re-inforced.
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia play their double cross game and Iraq is probably winning time. Next week we have to decode a possible Blair briefing on his Texas visit.

The geo-political waves are a nice playing field for the speculators on oil/gold futures. Does Arafat AND Sharon want to lure US forces (instead of UN) into Israel ?
Israel can't face its economic reality without the permanent aid from the US. That's why peace will never happen in Israel (unfortunately). UK citizens start to question the closeness of UK politics (support) with the US ! The whole Israel problem is functioning as a polirazator between the pro and contra blocks. Oil-dollar-euro and therefore Gold are surfing these waves, again, with the euro as third party (newcomer).

The euro (concept) must be the only reason that the ME isn't attacking the dollar directly with the Gold weapon !
Gold Giants could induce dollar-hyperinflation instantly with the Gold canon. But then they are disturbing and jeopardizing the outside US dollar-reserves policies !
And this was not planned ! An organized, fast dollar crash would make it impossible to compensate dollar-reserve losses with Gold-reserves appreciation for the euro allies who are not yet ready. China exports wants to profit as long as possible from a stable (strong) dollar.

Nice weekend to all.

Black BladeJapan's Debt Squad Battles Govt Inertia, Gangsters #7282504/05/02; 15:04:39


Tokyo, April 5 (Bloomberg) -- The Japanese government's debt collecting agency has 20 officers trained in martial arts and small arms, a vital skill when much of the $33 billion it aims to recover was lent to yakuza gangsters. Japan's mafia isn't the only clique the Resolution and Collection Corp. is finding hard to crack.

The banks aren't disposing of their bad debts because to do so on a significant basis would bankrupt them, the RCC said. Banks ``don't want to realize losses because they will become insolvent,'' said Kurihara. ``There would have to be an injection of public money'' to keep lenders solvent.

And collection is getting more difficult.

``There are lots of mob loans,'' said Kurihara. ``The yakuza bought real estate. The mortgage is with the failed financial institution and we have bought the mortgage from them. The private sector doesn't want to collect the money.''

Debt Busters

That's where the debt squad comes in. The 20-person unit -- seconded from Japan's police force -- specializes in collecting loans from potentially violent customers.

Black Blade: So the bankers come to break your kneecaps. Hmmm…

As always, get outta debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for expenses, and get a nonperishable food and basic goods storage program started.

TownCrierThanks for the comments, Belgian#7282604/05/02; 15:49:28

"The dramatic surge in POO was indiscriminate and the whole globe suffered from this renewed price-setting. Today, a total economic sanction is NOT wanted ! It is not the dollar as such that is targeted but rather the government behind that dollar and more precisely its (gvnmt) ME policy."
Nice work as always. You're aces in my book.


USAGOLDBelgian. . .#7282704/05/02; 17:40:00

Thanks for your recent posts -- some interesting ideas.

How would you rank the reasons for the Welteke gold gaffes of late between. . . .

1. A desire to drive down the price of gold

2. Angling for a piece of the next Washington Agreement annual allotment

3. Bailing out one or more German banks

Or do you have list of your own?

Also, I wonder what this sort of thing does to the "fabric" of the EU and the ECB. After all, I do not believe the French would have ever believed that their primary partner would be a gold seller. Welteke's gold comments certainly took most of the gold world by surprise given German history and currency policy since WWII -- a departure to say the least from the old days of a solid D-mark with gold in the background to make it stick. Cobra Too mentioned to me in private conversation that the conservative party in Germany looks for very good for the upcoming election -- one wonders if this could become a campaign issue.

USAGOLDAll. . .#7282804/05/02; 17:43:32

By the way, I invite comments, observations, etc from any and all on the Bundesbank/Welteke situation -- particularly our European posters.
YGMFrom the Daily Reckoning.....#7282904/05/02; 17:49:06

Omitted as per the rules.......Interesting Stats tho!!


Dear Daily Reckoning Reader,

"The Arabs have a saying," John Myers tells me, "Trust in Allah,
but make sure you tie up your camel." In short, things aren't
what they seem. And right now -- you're not getting the whole
story behind one of this year's biggest headlines: the growing
conflict in the Middle East.

Every year for the past two decades the oil industry has pumped
more oil than it has discovered. Over the 1990s, that trend
accelerated. Oil companies drained more than 3 times what
they've even found. John's "little black book" contains a host
of these gems...

* Today's oil estimates don't take into account 2 billion
barrels of Kuwaiti oil burned by Iraq in 1991.

* Not one super-giant oil field has been discovered since
Prudhoe Bay. That was 33 years ago.

* Yet OPEC recently added 287 billion barrels to their official
reserve tallies in a single year -- without making a single new
oil discovery... that's more oil than we've ever discovered in
the United States -- plus 40% (what's going on there?!).

* Today a terrific oil field will yield 250,000 barrels per day.
The United States alone burns through that much oil in a little
under three hours!

Industry secrets like these make the developing Middle East
crisis all the more tense for everyone involved.

Fact is, despite being the lifeblood of the economy... the oil
"reserves" are anything but the stable supply you are led to
believe. Therein lies the secret. Insider knowledge like this is
how oil industry execs make a killing when a crisis develops.

silvesterYGM and Daily Reckoning article#7283004/05/02; 19:38:36

If I were an Arab and my primary export(oil) provided my only source of income, I would be very concerned about accepting 27 paper dollars per barrel.

What would my kids and grandkids do for income when the oil is gone? It's not like they have many options. The Arabs sell oil. It's all they have. We have used a lot of it up and continue to do so at a much faster rate than most of the world.

How long will they continue to take only $27? How long will that paper last?

I think he's right YGM. Lot more to it than we hear.

Jin-YinIsrael Nationhood#7283104/05/02; 20:11:02

I received this by e-mail and just throwing it out to the board. There are a few questions that come to mind after reading it, like who was the territory taken from to establish a Jewish Nation in 1312 BCE. Where did the non-Arab refugees that existed previous to any influx come from or how long have their ancestors been living in the territory. Anyway there are some interesting facts.

Many free people who live in democratic countries, particularly Americans, are confused by what's happening between Israel and Yasser Arafat. This confusion is generally caused by a lack of historical understanding about this region. I hope you find the following useful in developing your own informed views of this difficult situation.


Takes just 1.5 minutes to read! It makes sense and it's not slanted. Jew and non-Jew ... it doesn't matter. Please read.

1. Nationhood and Jerusalem - Israel became a nation in 1312 BCE, two thousand years before the rise of Islam.

2. Arab refugees in Israel began identifying themselves as part of a Palestinian people in 1967, two decades after the establishment of the modern State of Israel.

3. Since the Jewish conquest in 1272 BCE the Jews have had dominion over the land for one thousand years with a continuous presence in the land for the past 3,300 years.

4. The only Arab dominion since the conquest in 635 CE lasted no more than 22 years.

5. For over 3,300 years, Jerusalem has been the Jewish capital. Jerusalem has never been the capital of any Arab or Muslim entity. Even when the Jordanians occupied Jerusalem, they never sought to make it their capital, and Arab leaders did not come to visit.

6. Jerusalem is mentioned over 700 times in the Tanach, the Jewish Holy Scriptures. Jerusalem is not mentioned once in the Koran.

7. King David founded the city of Jerusalem. Mohammed never came to Jerusalem.

8. Jews pray facing Jerusalem. Muslims pray with their backs toward Jerusalem.

9. Arab and Jewish Refugees - In 1948 the Arab refugees were encouraged to leave Israel by Arab leaders promising to purge the land of Jews. Sixty-eight percent left without ever seeing an Israeli soldier.

10. The Jewish refugees were forced to flee from Arab lands due to Arab brutality, persecution and pogroms.

11. The number of Arab refugees who left Israel in 1948 is estimated to be around 630,000. The number of Jewish refugees from Arab lands is estimated to be the same.

12. Arab refugees were INTENTIONALLY not absorbed or integrated into the Arab lands to which they fled, despite the vast Arab territory. Out of the 100,000,000 refugees since World War II, theirs is the only refugee group in the world that has never been absorbed or integrated into their
own peoples' lands. Jewish refugees were completely absorbed into Israel, a country no larger than the state of New Jersey.

13. The Arab - Israeli Conflict - The Arabs are represented by eight separate nations, not including the Palestinians. There is only one Jewish nation. The Arab nations initiated all five wars and lost. Israel defended itself each time and won.

14. The PLO's Charter still calls for the destruction of the state of Israel. Israel has given the Palestinians most of the West Bank land, autonomy under the Palestinian Authority, and has supplied them with weapons.

15. Under Jordanian rule, Jewish holy sites were desecrated and the Jews were denied access to places of worship. Under Israeli rule, all Muslim and Christian sites have been preserved and made accessible to people of all faiths.

16. The UN Record on Israel and the Arabs - Of the 175 Security Council resolutions passed before 1990, 97 were directed against Israel.

17. Of the 690 General Assembly resolutions voted on before 1990, 429 were directed against Israel.

18. The U.N was silent while 58 Jerusalem Synagogues were destroyed by the Jordanians.

19. The U.N. was silent while the Jordanians systematically desecrated the ancient Jewish cemetery on the Mount of Olives.

20. The U.N. was silent while the Jordanians enforced an Apartheid-like policy of preventing Jews from visiting the Temple Mount and the Western Wall.

These are incredible times. We have to ask what our role should be. What will we tell our grandchildren we did when there was a turning point in Jewish destiny, an opportunity to make a difference?

TownCrierAnother nation's gaffe is our seigniorage...and inflationary burden to bear?#7283204/05/02; 20:11:34

HEADLINE: Crumpled bills lead Ecuador to offer "gold" US coin

QUITO, Ecuador (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar may be one of the world's strongest currencies, but the greenback has lost a battle in Ecuador to the newer gold dollar coin due to locals' habit of crumpling paper bills.

The Andean nation adopted the U.S. dollar as its official currency in 2000 to halt spiraling inflation and the devaluation of its local sucre currency amid the worst economic crisis in decades.

...The Central Bank, tired of having to ship tattered bills north to exchange them for fresh dollars, plans to put 5 million of the U.S. gold dollar coins into circulation starting April 15.
------(click URL for full article)--------

You know how the banking system works. Whenever the people, government, and corporations in this inflation-prone country seek to borrow money from their network of banks, they will effectively be creating U.S. dollars.

Gold for savings. Need I say more?


TownCrierA sea-change in reporting, public sentiment sure to be not far behind.#7283304/05/02; 20:23:15

HEADLINE: Middle East crisis sets off rush into gold market

London (Reuters) 06-04-2002: The Middle East's plunge into turmoil has driven gold prices towards their highest for more than two years as investors scramble for a safe home for their money, analysts said on Friday.

...Bullish gold fundamentals, including falling supplies from mines worldwide and a reluctance by producers to sell unmined nuggets in forward markets, has also underpinned the rally.

Analysts now wonder if the precious metal is about to enjoy the investor limelight after years of taking a backseat when stock markets boomed, the dollar was mighty and gold appeared to be an investment tool from a distant age.

"There's more interest being seen in gold now than in the last 15 years. There's been a mind-set change," said Peter Hillyard, senior manager at ANZ Investment Bank.

..."Gold is absolutely flying...physical buying is extremely good. The Middle East has unsettled people's thoughts of a stable political and economic environment," said Ross Norman, analyst at TheBullionDesk.

Unlike the popping of a speculative investment bubble in which prices fall when confidence is lost, what we shall likely see is a reverse -- the popping of the bullion banking illusion that there is adequate physical gold to satisfy all claims against it. Prices will soar for metal in hand. Believe it.


sectorGold Derivatives "Drop", Other "Drops" and the Deval Thing#7283404/05/02; 20:28:18

The Importance of MS's Roach and his coming currency "Adjustment"

Morgan dropped their gold derivatives by $19 Billion to $7 Billion, CitiBank followed by halving theirs to $7 Billion and we wait on Chase's future actions[Although JPM has conjoined their OCC reporting of late].

These gold shorters have reduced their positions in a big way. To whom they have shifted their risk is an important unanswered question. The logical recipient is the Fed. Thus, they "Borrowed" gold and sold it to amass their $60 Billion aggregate position [At its peak] and now somehow have "returned" the gold to "Cancel" their short derivatives. It seems reasonable that the Fed will "Cancel" any physical obligations they may have in the future since they can't possible cover all their gold banking and "loaning" activity with physical metal.

Is this the only problem the Fed has? Well, there is the currency destabilizating current account deficit Then there is JPMs interest rate derivative mountain [Firmly inked to the price of gold]. JPM has dropped their IRDs by $4 Trillion in the latest OCC report. So we can guess that there is a coordinated [If not crash] effort under way to reduce gold-related risk at the largest Fed banks.

The risk to the Fed's banks is the likelihood of a gold price rise.

That event happens in only two ways (1)the Treasury decides [At some random moment] to cease selling gold [A "devaluation" ostensibly to assist US manufacturers in becoming more competitive] and (2) the Treasury is overwhelmed by spiking gold demand which precipitously drains its remaining gold stocks.

The deval is estimate at 19% from Fed reports of past deval events. But that is too weak. Too weak because Mr. Greenspan hasn't told the governors about everything and thus at the eleventh hour the 19% will become 30% to cover the skeletons he has hidden.

Gold will overnight be trading 19% [30% If I'm right] higher. POG =$360 to $420.

That a deval must happen is virtually certain.

The essential question is will gold get away from the Fed once the move is made? After all, there is no shortage of danger in the world.

NORTH OF 49(No Subject)#7283504/05/02; 21:22:22

PrivateerThe Treasury's Debt limit#7283604/05/02; 21:24:22

As of April 4, the Treasury has hit its debt limit

Limit: $US 5,950,000,000,000
Debt Subject To Limit: $US 5,949,975,000,000

Note that the level is now $25,000,000 short of the limit. Back in 1996, Mr Rubin stopped Treasury debt growth precisely $US 25,000,000 short of the then debt limit and kept it there for weeks. Mr O'Neill is certainly following Mr Rubin's recipe to the letter.

YGMSilvester#7283704/05/02; 22:06:11

Paper for Oil or Gold for Oil?

I think if you read in depth the posts of Another and FOA which are here linked at USA Gold (I'm in a hurry w/ this note BTW) you will find clues as to which they recieve more of. Many of the more conversant posters here could give you a much better sense of that than I. However I believe some Arab Nations have refused the US $$ in payment...Hope this helps....Back tommorrow....YGM.
Mr Greshamsector: overnight devaluation#7283804/05/02; 22:18:39

I think you've nailed it once more. I don't understand the supposed derivatives drop, except as part of the context for an overnight POG shift that attempts to balance the Fed's position in fiat/gold at a level it estimates (via minmax gaming outcome calcs plugged into its econometric models) as defensible for at least a usable interval going forward.

Overnight, indeed, is the corresponding discontinuous move to the low-volatility "stability" we have experienced these past frustrating/patient years. And the defenestrating of the chart-followers who wait for a "confirmation" of the bull market. The physical "fools" will smile their private smiles and the rest will compose their rationalizations. In this case "better a year too early than a day too late" will prove the perfect maxim.

We'll have years and years following to poke and examine and explain the new economic landscape (hey -- most of us didn't know that things changed in 1971, did we? -- and how many years afterward has it taken for 1971 to become a known point in our econ history?) that others will still be floundering to adjust themselves to.

"Day after day, alone on a hill
The man with the foolish grin is keeping perfectly still.
And nobody wants to hear him,
they can tell what he wants to do.
And he never shows his feelings,
but the Fool on the Hill sees the sun going down
And the eyes in his head see the world spinning 'round."

(I think this might have been one of FOA's selections for us, if he had been of the "Beatles generation".)

"Like a thief in the night..."

Sierra MadreA few thoughts for the weekend#7283904/05/02; 22:30:44

1. Bush Sr. was a great hero of the war against Iraq, and thought it was he who pulled together a great alliance against the "New Hitler" Saddam - whom he never deigned to mention by his full name and title.

During that war, he steadily refused any "linkage" of the issue of Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait, with the observance of Resolution 142 of the UN, calling for Israeli withdrawal from the occupied territories. "First, we deal with Saddam. When that is over, we'll talk about Israel and the Palestinians."

The war ended and Bush Sr. had a terrific popularity rating.

Then, he declared that a U.S. guarantee covering $10 billion in borrowings by Israel, would not be forthcoming.

James Baker III, Sec. of State, received an insulting treatment on his visit to Israel.

Things began to fall apart. The election was coming, and Bush Sr.'s popularity began to plunge. The media were all over him for "It's the Economy, Stupid!".

Bush Sr., having saved Israel from the Iraqi threat, thought he could now strongly influence Israel and settle the problem of the occupied territories. Talks in Madrid.

How wrong he was! Everything was coming up roses for Bush Sr., until he made the big mistake of thinking it was he who put together the great Western Alliance against Iraq, and that he could call the shots for Israel.

At the height of his popularity, I saw what he was doing and said to all who would listen: "George Bush Sr. will NOT be re-elected." No one believed me. They believed the polls.

Well, you know what happened.

2. Is the same story to be repeated in the case of Bush, Jr.? Looks like it to me.

There are just too many sympathizers of Israel in positions of great influence in the U.S., for Bush to adopt a policy contrary to Israeli objectives. That there might be a purge of these people from those positions, in totally unthinkable.

Bush Jr.'s popularity rating is today up in the high 80's. Watch for that rating to fall like a rock in the coming days.

I do not think Bush Jr. will be re-elected.

3. There will be a period of calm and hope in the next couple of weeks. But it will be based on false bases. Nothing is going to change in the Israeli-Palestinian problem. Look for a possible "terrorist attack" on U.S. soil, to allow the Israelis to move again.

Gold and oil will fall in value during this period. An opportunity to buy gold cheaply.

4. There will be no "one-month selective embargo of oil shipments to pro-Israeli countries". Iran and Iraq may attempt this, but nothing will come of it but losses of dollars for those countries. They will cave. There will be no war by a union of Moslem countries against Israel.

5. Things will get worse for the Palestinians. Much worse. The world, the UN, Europe, will groan about it, but nothing will be done. Israel will probably, in my opinion, carry out a massive "ethnic cleansing". It has been done before. The Turks drove out - how many hundreds of thousands? - of Greeks from eastern Turkey back in the 20's. Massive death toll. Nobody stopped them.

6. Oil flows will continue. In 3/5 years, the Palestinians will be forgotten. Israel will have triumphed.

7. The financial problems of the U.S. are not going to go away, nor can they be solved. The U.S. is in the process of destroying itself, or at least, it is its own worst enemy. Gold will reassert itself, as we all expect it to, because it is not a military problem, it is a financial reality that cannot be dissipated. Roach of Morgan Stanley has spoken truthfully.

8. When countries sink, if the sinking is gradual no one notices it much and few have the clarity of vision necessary to understand the underlying causes. So people become impoverished slowly, and their memories being short, they cannot really compare their previous well-being with present conditions. So they just go along, as best they can.
This is going to happen to the Japanese. Very, very few will buy gold. Of course, those very few may be sufficient to cause a permanent important rise in the price of gold.

And the same will happen to Joe Six Pack. All men are not created equal, some are smarter than others. The political result of '29 and the 30's for the U.S., was an opportunity for an FDR to carry out a revolution. No such opportunity, from the Left or from the Right, will be available in these times. Depression will come, but it will be denied by the Media. So, Joe Six Pack will just think it's his own bad luck. No political cohesion will be possible, among those down and out. Diverse groups may raise a ruckus, but they will be thrown a sop, and quiet down.

Pornography, drugs and hard rock will dull the minds of the young and strong. They will accept everything.

9. And so, let us watch the unfolding drama of our times, and take what precautions we may, by holding as much physical as we can. Never doubt for one instant, the wisdom of that approach. For we really KNOW only ONE THING: paper always has, and always will go to zero value eventually. We must act on that ONE THING THAT WE KNOW.

Have a happy weekend, all! We have a duty to be happy:

"Si fractus inlabatur orbis
Impavidum ferien ruinae" Horace 15 B.C.

"If the Universe should collapse upon us,
Unshaken we shall withstand its blows."


Black BladeSilvester – Arabs and oil#7284004/05/02; 22:34:08

I think that the best way to describe that quandary is through an Arab saying about Arab reliance on this depleting asset. "My grandfather rode a camel, my father drove a car, I fly a jet, and my son will ride a camel".

Years ago before FDR confiscate US Gold, the Saudi region oil producers required payment in Gold to Aramco for oil concessions. However, this means of payment was suddenly in peril after the FDR confiscation. US oil companies got around this for a while by using Gold from other sources (such as British Gold Sovereigns). I used to have a link to this history but have lost it some time ago when I wiped my hard drive clean. Maybe some one here on this forum has a link to this Gold for Oil history. Cheers!

- Black Blade

DOWNUNDERJIN- YIN - - - Your Post 72831 -- Israel Nationhood#7284104/05/02; 22:55:07

Personally I found this message to be completely provocative and I wonder why you would post if it was not to put a one sided view over that you agreed with. To say you just received it by E/mail & just throwing it out on the board is a bit disingenuous --- especially when you finish by saying --"anyway there are some interesting FACTS."

For most of my 50 + years I have admired & supported Israel & always thought of them as a brave & resourceful people. However over recent years my views have changed to the point now where I view Israel as the real enemy of peace in the Middle East. People all over the world have seen how Israel has been treating the Palestinians. The Israeli Government has been taking their land, bulldozing their houses & allowing the most rabid extremist Jews to continue with the spreading out off their settlements.

This is not a good look & while it is not all one sided the Israelis are being seen as the aggressors. The Palestinians mainly have stones to fight with against tanks, bulldozers & well-armed & trained soldiers. One can't help thinking that if the state of Israel was really wanting a lasting peace then it should start by pulling out of the extremist settlements & giving the land back to whom it belongs. Currently Israel is systematically smashing the Palestinian infrastructure needed to sustain even basic living standards. This is exactly what the bastard Indonesian jungle bunny soldiers did when they trashed Dili -- the capital of East Timor. Is no wonder that Palestinians resort to suicide bombings.

The following quote is from a post earlier this week - can't recall who said it but I concur :
"Israel is a nation born out of terrorism. After all, even Ariel Sharon was a member of the Irgun, a terrorist organization that murdered British citizens among others. He also gave orders for the attack on the USS Liberty where helpless unarmed US sailors were machine-gunned down in lifeboats (I thought that was rather cold-blooded myself). He also gave the order to slaughter men, women, and children in UN refugee camps in Southern Lebanon."

The US Government has not had the courage to tell Israel the truth. Israel should not be supported UNTIL it seeks a genuine and long-lasting peace with the Palestinians. Other US foreign policy is also suspect -they have many enemies. The American people are rightly patriotic --you have to stand by your country. However there is every reason why educated Americans should be yelling out about the way you are being used & abused by a rotten administration. They are TRAITORS indeed to have left the gaps they did in your Airport security allowing Sept 11 to happen. What a$$holes.

HipplebeckThe public debt#7284204/05/02; 23:11:02

Just to bring it into focus on a real life level,
Every child born in this country is starting off with a debt of over $20,000.
That's right.
Every one of us owes more than $20,000 on top of any personal debt we have run up.
If the government balances the budget from here on in, we will all have to pay $133 per month for the next 30 years to pay off what has already been spent. (at 7% interest).
Yes that's right.
For a family of four that's $532 a month.

GuidedIsrael's Birth #7284304/05/02; 23:31:54

Guess again. Israel is a nation born out of slavery. Delivered by God out of Egyptian slavery into their promised land. Read the record in scripture.
darkhorse@everybody#7284404/05/02; 23:36:14

Everybody has an opinion, and understandably quite a few of them have surfaced the past few days re: Israel and the Palestinians. I really don't believe too many people here (or ANYwhere in the general population) have enough personal experience to say who's the good guys and who's the bad guys. From what I've seen the past few weeks, and learned over my 40+ years, neither side has done anything that could objectively be taken as true strides toward a peaceful settlement. Oil or no oil, this conflict will go on. As someone pointed out the other day, these people have been at each other for think that any modern day peace proposal will end everything is nothing more than naive arrogance (IMHO)! Leaders from both sides won a Nobel Peace prize a few years back...but to paraphrase Miss Jackson "What have you done for your people lately?" Both sides have committed unthinkable atrocities (unthinkable except to those that have been taught nothing but hate/self-preservation) upon the other. I don't believe anyone (person, group, nation...whatever) has the right to set out to destroy anyone else, but both sides have committed themselves to just that! Neither side will be happy until the other is gone...period! This latest session may very well get totally out of control despite the best efforts of those trying to end it. The fallout (hopefully no pun) if it does go from bad to worse could be very bad for more than just the US. Hope and pray for the best, but be responsible enough to do as much as you can to prepare for the worst.
WaveriderGold Still Boiling in Oil#7284504/05/02; 23:55:27

"In what seems like a century ago in terms of all the incredible financial market and geopolitical developments of recent years, I penned an essay on gold and oil way back in June 2000.

In my earlier essay, titled "Gold Boiling in Oil", we took a look at gold and oil in their historical price context and examined their very strong relationship over time. I arrived at the conclusion that the relatively high oil prices at the time were exerting substantial upward pressure on gold prices, that ice-cold gold was heating up as it was trapped in the bottom of a great cauldron of boiling oil.

So, during this seemingly fitting time after a geopolitically-breathtaking couple of weeks, we decided to update our key gold and oil comparison graphs to see if the intricate dance between the gold and oil markets is ready to yield any more secrets now than it was way back in June 2000."

Waverider: Another excellent and timely read from Adam Hamilton - enjoy!

Black BladeYGM – Oil Reserves and Declining Projection#728464/6/02; 00:21:44

I have addressed this issue over the years and here over the last couple of years or so. But your post from the "Daily Reckoning" is essentially correct. Each new Giant (reserves of 1 billion bbl/day not "Super Giant" of 5 to 10 billion bbl/day) oil field found over the last 50 years has been progressively smaller. Roughly 120 of the largest oil fields produce about half of the worlds oil. The average age of the largest (Super Giants) is 43.5 years (Matthew Simmons, 2002).

Consider that there have been no new oil fields that produce more than 250,000 bbl/day (most of those are deep and ultra-deep water), yet the world's largest 19 Super Giants produce more than 500,00 bbl/day though they have an average age of about 70 years. And most of these fields are in various stages of decline – in other words they have already reached their "Hubbert Peak" (named after M. King Hubbert). The last two Super Giants with production over 1 million bbl/day that were discovered were Alaska's Prudhoe Bay in 1968 and Mexico's Cantarell Field in 1976. That's it! Since the 1970's all the new discoveries supply only a miniscule 13% of the world's daily production and new discoveries have been declining since the 1960's.

Of course this discussion does not consider recoverable oil or "Cheap Oil" which is necessary for fueling a robust economy. If the concept of "Cheap Oil" is ignored then we could conclude that there is enough oil for many decades. This is especially true is we consider the combination of Tar Sands, Heavy Crude Sludge, Oil Shale, Biofuels, natural gas liquids (NGL), etc.).

The point is that all the "Super Giants" and possibly "Giants" have been discovered. That is because they are obviously the easiest to find. Each successive discovery has been smaller than the previous discovery. All US Super Giant oil fields are in decline (including Alaska's Prudhoe Bay). Recently the North Sea Oil Field has been projected to have reached it's Hubbert Peak production and is now in decline. It is suspected that the Saudi Ghawar Field is close to reaching its Hubbert Peak projection (production data is a closely held secret). Interesting is that once a field reaches its Hubbert peak it then production declines rapidly. Of course with declining drilling activity and without a drilling boom in the works, it is very unlikely that we will have enough smaller fields to replace declining supply from Giant and Super Giant oilfields in future years. Immediate and long term prospects for "Cheap Energy" look rather grim.

- Black Blade


Simmons, M. R., The World's Giant Oilfields, Hubbert Center Newsletter #2002/1. January 2002

Mr GreshamIsrael#728474/6/02; 00:21:48

Wow! As usual, Sierra has gotten some great points in, and gotten me going again. I was gonna take the night off...oh well.

From the lay, non-Jewish American's point of view, Israel was born out of the photographs of the death camp survivors, and the heaps of bones, ashes, and remnants of the dead. It has taken us decades to integrate the shock of this history into our lives in this world. But it did not take us long to conclude that this people's survivors deserved a home as safe as any of us had at present.

Israel's military was born out of the memory of the helpless ghetto inhabitants quarantined, then rounded up with no weapons, no defenders to stop the Gestapo's goon squads, and sent to die. "This will never happen again." was a response we could all identify with. Young Jews who acted out that response seemed heroic. Any of us would hope to have done the same. (The cause they were then enlisted in might be more questionable, but perhaps inevitable.)

Israel's politics was born out of a staunch resolve never to trust the world's nations again, even the above-stated sympathies to never let Jews be in peril again. Israel will imprison Vanunu, who reveals its nuclear arsenal. Israel will influence US politics and elections, spy on US policymaking, attack the USS Liberty -- in a fanatic devotion to its own survival. Understandable in its ruthlessness -- but therefore tolerable?

Meanwhile, politicians arise, as in any society. "I can advance myself by seizing upon these issues, these fears, these sympathies." Chameleonlike, will adapt to whatever history has propelled them into nationhood. Ideals aside, it is power that rules them. The evidence is in their deeds.

Getting Israel to act in its own long-term best interests -- this is the observer's dilemma. Calculations are made from different platforms; mine is not theirs. I can see theirs; but I must still speak from mine.

The Palestinians were not the evil enemy that threatened Israel's survival, certainly not since 1967. But Israel -- understandably -- came into existence PRIMED for such a second enemy. Palestinians had been the most likely COOPERATING neighbor for Israel among Arabs, most likely to help economic development, AND acceptance into the Arab neighborhood, after the initial war faded away.

Not an enemy, but they were a "competitor" for the same lands. Which some saw as lands for the taking. And what example did Israel have before them. "Where are the Jews of Europe now?" Germany is largely "Judenfrei", only 45,000 left out of millions gone, 50 years later. Never to come back. They see that people CAN be cleared out of spaces, and time will pass. And grass will grow over the graves. (Having been done to them, some may even think the world "owes them one.") That can set a policy course, unable to be spoken, but just as determined upon.

That is what we are seeing today.

Jews have taught the world more about Conscience, perhaps, than any other people, paying the highest price as its teachers. Conscience may seem like a weak second to tanks and bomber squadrons. But if we all speak -- and they act -- from what we have learned, perhaps we can help this resolve, as other "eternal" conflicts have recently resolved, in some way other than a Final Solution, that will tarnish the name "Israel" with a sadness that will be centuries in the dispelling.

Belgian@ USAGOLD /All : Welteke's Gold (threath)#728484/6/02; 00:38:52

Wim Duisenberg - ECB Press Conference :

He (WD) iterated the "very sensible matter" in wich CBs sell(sell=?) Gold under the CB Gold Agreemenet (WA) and commented that any future sales (leasings-reschuffles) by current (! more/less later)signatories would certainly not (NOT) be until the expiry of the current Agreement in 2004 !!!! (WGC)

A German faction is in support of the US$ for God knows what reason. Balkan / Russia common agenda (military) ? German dollar-investments in US à la Daimler Chrysler and impact on Deutsche Bank ? Disagreement with the Euroland euro/gold/oil concept (Russian oil/gas) ? Still on the look out for clues indicating the direction to look for.

1/ A desire to drive down (consolidate) the POG is a pro US$ stance and not a Goldsale pro !
2/ Next WA allotment (2004) is too late for relief to the present problems of unemployment (Elections-sept.'02).
3/ Bailing out (support) Deutsche Bank ? Possible, but impossible to know ! cfr. Nobody (except few insiders) knew about the Holzmann debacle for years !!! Any kind of suspicion is perfectly camouflaged and covered (see Enron-new culture of selfdelusion).

That there is a German Gold-Problem is clear ! Duisenberg W.
called for : Order ! Reassuring !?
Not ALL Eurolanders are Gold minded and desire to use the ancient Gold reserves for immediate relief and political support rather than backing the euro/gold-concept. Remember the discussion on 15% or 30% Gold-reserves. Gold's immense power is anti-social ! And talking about Gold in Euroland, automatically splits the pro and contra's in two camps.
Plunderers for immediate profit and Savers Long Term Stability. And it is exactly this same diversion that pops up each time the Gold word (reserves) is mentioned. Ahhghh Democraty...(Swiss referendum)!?

If next ECB presidency can't be given to the French Gold-Lovers (German opposition), the lilliputan Belgian alternative (compromis) presidency is also a quasi guarantee for (liberal) Gold sympathy !?

Sorry for not being able to offer more facts (certainties) on the matter.

Black BladeUS drilling activity resumes its downward spiral #728494/6/02; 00:54:55


HOUSTON, Apr. 5 -- US drilling activity declined this week, wiping out last week's gain that was the first after 9 weeks of straight losses, officials of Baker Hughes Inc., Houston, reported Friday. There were 738 rotary rigs drilling in the US and its waters this week, 23 fewer than last week when there was a gain of 11 units. A year ago at this time, the US rig count was at 1,200 and still climbing.

This week's losses were in the usual areas—land and natural gas drilling. There were 613 land rigs working in the US this week, 21 less than last week. The number of units drilling inland waters was up 2 to 15. But the number of rigs drilling in the US offshore sector was down 4 to 110. That included 107 working rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, down 2 from last week. The total number of US rotary rigs drilling for natural gas was down by 18 to 591 this week. There were 145 rigs drilling for oil, a decrease of 5. Another 2 active rigs were unclassified.

Black Blade: Without replenishing reserves the domestic market is in peril and energy independence in extremely unlikely. The US is likely to be held hostage to Middle east oil from here on out. It is "Cheap Energy" that fuels the economy. It won't take much if one major ME oil producer decides to "punish" the western economies.

Black BladeBush's push for Middle East peace dampens energy prices #728504/6/02; 01:08:51

Market watch: Bush's push for Middle East peace dampens energy prices


HOUSTON, Apr. 5 -- Energy futures prices fell sharply Thursday as strong talk from President George W. Bush fanned hopes of at least a ceasefire in the Middle East. Traders were encouraged by Bush's demand that Israel withdraw its forces from Palestinian territories and by his decision to send US Sec. of State Colin Powell to the region.

The first bearish reports of US petroleum inventories from both the American Petroleum Institute and the US Department of Energy in several weeks also accelerated downward momentum from Wednesday's trading session, analysts said. Price declines during the 2 days wiped out most of the increases earlier this week, bringing energy futures back near their pre-Easter levels.

Black Blade: This is a temporary measure as inventories have been in a general downward trend, even with Russian quota cheating. We now enter into the so-called "driving season" when traditionally gasoline use begins to rise and fuel prices start to rise. "Thankfully" this is not inflationary as it is not calculated in the "core rate" (dripping sarcasm). .

Mr GreshamFed tightening ahead?#728514/6/02; 01:19:58

Don't miss this great Pimco read on the Fed's operating system overall, including the Continental bank run.
Mr Gresham"Dead Presidents"#728524/6/02; 02:04:21

I wonder how many Americans think Franklin ($100) was a President?
Black BladeThe Rise and Fall of "Hydro-Carbon Man" (Reprise) #728534/6/02; 02:09:16

The following is a repost that I put forth on this forum quite some time ago. In light of recent events I repost it here. There have been some changes in Oil and Gold prices, however, the premise remains the same.

The Rise and Fall of "Hydro-Carbon Man" (Reprise)


The modern industrial economy is dependent on cheap oil. Cheap oil has fueled the industrial age and has advanced modern man to what can best be described as the age of "Hydro-Carbon Man." Yes, there is evolution, as man evolved from the hunter-gather and agrarian society to the heavy industry of modern society. It was crude oil that gave rise to heavy industry, efficient mechanized transportation, increased out-put of goods and services, and has become vital for modern agriculture. But how long can Hydro-Carbon Man continue without cheap oil?

The question is not whether, but rather when cheap world crude oil productivity will begin to decline bringing about the long awaited "permanent oil shock." Demand for cheap oil continues to increase, all the while, the world's population continues to grow. The real problem of course, is when the production of oil peaks while demand continues to increase and the world's population continues to grow unabated. Emerging economies that are entering into the industrial age will also demand their share of oil. Oil was the principal fuel powering the "Asian Tigers" economic growth. A booming US economy continues to consume ever-increasing amounts of oil.

It was the abundance of cheap oil gave rise to "Hydro-Carbon Man ". Oil and its refined products allowed "Hydro-Carbon Man" to expand his productivity several fold. Now Hydro-Carbon Man's existence is threatened by the limitations of "cheap oil". Like a drug addict who suddenly has to face a very high price for his fix, Hydro-Carbon Man is about to learn the realities of life without an abundance of "cheap oil". Oil is the primary energy source for the world's economies and now we are faced with the limited ability to increase production of "cheap oil" and continue fueling future economic growth.

When the price of petroleum rose in the past it has had profound effects on the economy. Since oil is a vital commodity for everything from energy, to petrochemicals, to plastics, and to agriculture, it is perfectly understandable that high oil prices have resulted in economic recession. Gold and Silver prices generally increased in dollar terms as the effects of higher petroleum prices filter through the economy. Every postwar economic recession has been preceded by sudden oil price increases. In 1973 prices tripled in response to an Arab oil embargo as punishment for the western nations support of Israel during the 1973 Arab-Israeli conflict. In 1979, prices nearly doubled when the Shah was dethroned in Iran and the Soviets invaded Afghanistan. Oil prices rocketed to over $40.00/bbl during the 1990 Gulf War. The major economies went into a tail-spin and suffered through major recessions. These were only temporary disruptions to the economy. The coming oil crunch is not going to be so temporary. Gold and silver prices increased in the past as recession and inflation (stagflation) followed those oil shocks. Precious metals will rise in value in the coming oil shock as well. If we learn anything from our past, it should be that history does repeat time and again (my apologies to philosopher George Santayana).


The first thing that one must remember is that the problem is not how much oil is left, but rather how much oil is recoverable, and more importantly, how much is economically recoverable. Secondly, what is perhaps more important is what happens when production no longer increases or worse, tapers off, while demand increases. Thirdly, the question arises whether or not non-conventional oil, alternative energy sources, new technology, and energy conservation measures can make up for the dwindling conventional oil reserves.

How did we get to the point where we risk not being able to produce sufficient oil? The member nations of OPEC have attempted to act in concert to manipulate oil prices by setting production quotas that often resulted in both cheating by various members. Many countries and companies have grossly exaggerated the estimates of their petroleum reserves in order to get increased OPEC production quotas, to increase their stock prices, or to obtain more collateral for their loans. Another problem lies in the definition of "reserves." Reserves are generally referred to as proven oil reserves that can be economically recovered using existing technology. However, many countries have played "fast and loose" with this definition. True that much of that oil does exist, but whether it is economically recoverable is debatable. Many simply do not understand the difference between "resources" (petroleum known to exist) and "reserves" (economically recoverable petroleum). They are unaware of the limitations of cheaply produced petroleum and point to the vast deposits of "non-conventional" petroleum sources such as tar sands and oil shales without awareness that these are "resources" and not "reserves." Without new improved technology or willingness to pay perhaps $60.00 or more per barrel of crude oil, these deposits are not likely to be extensively exploited.

Most of the world's oil has been found. The so-called "Super Giants" (extremely large oil fields) have been found prior to 1973. None have been found since, and this includes the time period encompassing the early 1980's when crude hit all-time highs and new technology was developed. In fact, the discovery rate for "Large Fields" has declined. Perhaps as much as 90% of the world's crude oil has been found. The amount of new discoveries in the world has dropped from a peak of 41 billion barrels in 1962 to an annual rate of 5 billion to 6 billion barrels a year now.

Predicting when oil production increases will peak and when the inevitable decline begins can be fairly accurately calculated. This mathematical model was first published in 1956 by M. King Hubbert, a Shell Oil geologist. He realized early on that the unrestricted extraction of oil from a region eventually reaches a maximum production level. He fitted a bell curve to production statistics and projected the point when production peaks would occur. He did this for US oil production in the lower 48 states and concluded that oil production would peak in 1969, give or take a year. US production actually peaked in 1970. Oil productions from other regions around the world have successfully followed the Hubbert Curve model. The analysis reveals that Norway and the U.K. have likely reached their production peaks. Mexico's largest oil field, offshore Cantarell, has a $10 billion nitrogen injection project about to be commissioned to re-pressurize the field to offset declining production. Venezuela is facing a similar situation as Mexico. The Persian Gulf states are expected to reach peak production between 2006 and 2009. Global peak production could be reached as early as 2002, then decline over the next 70 years. As oil stocks peak and eventually decline, prices will rise steeply. Provided that there isn't a global recession (a more likely probability), then worldwide oil production should peak during the first decade of the 21st century.

What about undiscovered oil fields? There are very few geologically probable places that have not been actively explored. This includes extremely deep water and the polar regions. Since these areas are in remote and generally inaccessible regions, the costs alone would make any such oil fields uneconomic, if in fact they did exist. The problem is not so much that there is a shortage of reserves, but rather a shortage of production. For years energy companies have not invested in increasing their oil production capacity and refining capacity. In fact, in the US, no new refineries have been built since the 1970's due to EPA regulations and perceived liabilities.


World demand for cheap oil is growing exponentially due to population and economic growth. The emerging economies of China, India, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa are rapidly industrializing and becoming more important to the world economy. To fuel this industrialization, ever increasing amounts of oil must be found, produced, and refined. Increased oil production has come from existing wells that have been exploited for many decades. Many advances in technology have allowed man to squeeze ever more oil from these oil fields. Yet no significant new fields have been discovered for many years. The refining capacity for any new oil would be severely restricted as oil companies have not invested in any new refineries or infrastructure. Regulatory limitations and recent low prices have created an environment where oil companies do not want the added liabilities. Any additional demand will severely stress the already deteriorated and fragile oil production infrastructure. Production from untapped reserves are limited by the simple fact that it takes years to meet regulatory criteria, drill wells, to setup production and lack of new refining facilities. In the US much of the known reserves are off-limits in such areas as the Alaskan north slope, Southern California coast, and Rocky Mountain Front.

Additional pressure on the world's oil supply is coming from the emerging economies of Latin America, Africa, and Asia. The added economic and political tension will only increase as competition for world oil supply intensifies. The third world emerging economies such as China and India with over one third of the world's population will require ever increasing energy as they become major suppliers of goods. The energy needs of China and India are projected to increase by at least 400% in the next decade.

All the while, the Middle Eastern nations of OPEC continue to gain greater share of the remaining global oil business in a politically unstable region of the world. Increasing prices could reduce demand, however, the world as we know it runs on oil. In truth "Hydro-Carbon Man" and his addiction to "cheap oil" is about to come crashing to an end.


The debate over whether or not there is plenty of cheap oil is a moot point when one considers that there is not enough refining capacity to produce from any significant increase in oil production. The only country believed to have any excess production capacity is Saudi Arabia. Kuwait recently admitted that they are unable to meet their OPEC quota. This is a recipe for disaster.


There are generally two classifications of oil. These are "Conventional Oil" and "Non- conventional Oil." "Conventional Oil" refers to oil that is easily economically recovered. "Conventional oil" is that which is found and produced today from large oil fields. "Non- conventional Oil" is that which is or can be produced from a variety of sources at higher oil prices.


Conventional oil sources are those that can and have been exploited easily and profitably. The largest oil fields were the easiest to find and exploit. The largest oil fields, so-called "Super Giants" were found early on as there were usually many clues as to the existence of a large pool of oil. Much of the time oil would even be found at the surface in what are called oil seeps. As the geology of these large oil fields was more fully understood over time, other surface expressions were useful in finding oil. The sheer size of these "Super Giants" (basins or oil province) were the easiest to find with any given technology. The exploration for oil improved with technological advances with the use of refraction seismic, analog reflection seismic, digital reflection seismic, 3-D digital reflection seismic, and electric well logs. Eventually as these oil fields were exploited and new ones were found, advances were made in drilling technologies as well such as horizontal (directional) drilling. The search for oil has advanced offshore and there too drilling technology has improved with the use of offshore drilling barges to deepwater drill ships, jack-up drill-rigs, and semi-submersible rigs.

In all probability, all the major oil basins or provinces have been found and the world is in effect, truly running out of oil. At least out of easily exploited conventional oil. In fact, the peak year for oil discoveries in the US was in 1930, and the peak for worldwide oil discoveries was in 1962. Discovery rates have steadily fallen since. In fact, most increases in oil production since then have come from technological advances that were applied to already discovered oil fields. 3-D Seismic and horizontal drilling techniques improved oil recovery in known fields, but have not resulted in any significant discoveries of major fields.


Much has been discussed about non-conventional oil sources and alternative energy sources. It is true that there is a substantial amount of non-conventional oil. The problem of course is that it is much more costly and much of this oil is not economically recoverable at current prices. The Oil Sands of Canada's Athabasca region may have as much as 900 billion to 1.3 trillion barrels equivalent oil (maybe 300 to 600 billion recoverable). The wholesale processing of tar sands (effectively asphalt) is difficult and the impurities creates a whole set of environmental problems as it is mined and therefore is likely to face a lot of political pressure. There are at least 2 major producers in the region: Syncrude (a consortium of oil producers), and Suncor (SU). The same problems arise from even more difficult oil shales. The problems of course are the included heavy metals and sulfur content.

Some non-conventional oils are those that are not easily recoverable and also are difficult to process. An example is the massive deposit of heavy oil sludge such as that found in the Orinoco Belt. The Orinoco Oil Belt in Venezuela is thought to contain 1.2 trillion barrels of heavy oil sludge. The Orinoco Belt, or "Faja" of eastern Venezuela may become a major source of oil, yet this is a costly enterprise as this heavy sludge may not be easily recovered. This sludge has been described as having the consistency of peanut butter. The belt is a thick lattice of ancient river beds about 280 miles (450 kilometers) long and 60 miles (100 kilometers) wide. The heavy oil must be warm enough to be pumped and specialized horizontal drilling rigs are used. To keep this oil moving, solvents are used to dilute the oil before it cools and hardens. Obviously this will be not only costly to produce, but since it is still a heavy oil even after it is upgraded for shipment, the additional processing at the refinery will also be costly.

Other possibilities do exist. Liquid natural gases and condensates could be a source of fuel. Unfortunately, the need for clean burning fuel for the current generation of power plants for the world's power grids mean that the competition for natural gas will become intense. The difficulties of liquefied natural gas (LNG) can be easily illustrated by a short case study of such a project in the small Arab country of Qatar on the western coast of the Arabian Gulf. Qatar has the third largest natural gas reserves in the world, and the country's North Field is the world's biggest source of non-associated natural gas (that is natural gas not associated with oil). The field has reserves of more than 500 trillion cubic feet - 3 times greater than in the entire US. Qatar is developing the capacity to deliver almost 11 million metric tons of LNG annually for sale to power companies and other customers in a number of Asian and European countries, as well as the United States. Natural gas is piped from the field to a processing facility. It is at this processing facility where the natural gas is liquefied by chilling it to -260 degrees Fahrenheit and transporting it in newly designed tankers with nickel and steel membranes. Once these tankers reach their destination, the LNG is regasified and consumed as pipeline natural gas. Obviously this will help offset some of the coming oil crunch, but a lot more specialized tankers and a lot of infrastructure needs to be built.

The possibilities do exist for clean energy from nuclear power. However, nuclear power is politically incorrect and faces regulatory and political pressures that make it an economic uncertainty. The Three-Mile Island and Chernobyl nuclear power plant accidents are still fresh in most peoples memories. Nuclear power in some countries is still acceptable (such as france and Japan) and may help relieve some of the pressure on limited oil reserves. Solar and wind power also face opposition as the infrastructure requires vast tracts of land and may impact on some wildlife. Solar and wind power are not likely to become widespread sources of power as they are climate dependent and it is not easy to store electrical power for use when needed. Another relatively expensive possibility is the development of Biomass fuels such as ethanol. The problem of ethanol is that it requires much more energy to create than is ultimately obtained. Ethanol that is used in reformulated gasoline is only available because of government subsidies. Non-conventional natural gas will become increasingly important. Coalbed methane (absorbed into coal molecular structure) is produced from wells drilled into coal seams. NG from gas shales require fracturing and pending recent requests for environmental legislation in the US to restrict Hydro-fracturing, this resource may ultimately become unrecoverable. NG in Artic regions and deepwater are problematic at best. Hydrates (methane ice-like solids) in Artic and oceanic regions are presently unrecoverable and do not migrate into commercial traps.

There is another classification that fits under the heading of non-conventional oil and that is oil in the conventional oil regimes that require uneconomic measures for exploitation. This includes oil that is in small oil traps that is currently uneconomic at current prices. Such oil is found in mature oil fields, and requires that wells are drilled near existing primary wells to access these small pockets of oil. Also oil that requires extraordinary measures such as steam, water or gas injection to force oil to migrate to where it is economically recovered could be considered non-conventional oil.


The financial analysts, government parrots, and media drones continue to rant about the new economy and occasionally attempt to describe how oil is not very important in the world's economies and therefore rising petroleum prices are no threat. They even continue to ignore the importance of petroleum when calculating core inflation statistics for the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer price Index (CPI). They even use dishonest measures in these calculations by incorporating dubious valuations derived from "Hedonic Deflators" and "Seasonality" statistics. These fools overlook the big picture and the importance of petroleum in the economy (New or Old). The claims are that Hydro-Carbon Man no longer needs oil because now he has communication through the Internet and the invention of the computer. He can buy his toys through a computer and a phone line. If it were only that easy.

The Old and New economy debate can be misleading. The future economy is likely to blend traditional business (Old Economy) with new developments and inventions (New Economy). The question is where does petroleum fit into this future economy? It is only obvious to even the most causal observer that energy and petrochemical use will grow several fold because they are so embedded in our economic life and power the engine of economic growth. The use of plastics (derived from oil) has increased and will continue to do so. The invention of the personal computer and development of the internet assures that electrical use will dramatically increase and thereby consume much more energy. Products purchased over the Internet will be delivered by conventional means such as by courier (i.e. United Parcel Service, Fed-Ex., Postal Service, etc.), consuming ever more energy rather than delivered to a central location where the consumer can retrieve several items at a time. As more people and countries join the new economy, ever more energy will be consumed.

The world's population continues to grow and recently surpassed the 6 billion mark. Agriculture is stretching its limits. Food is cheaply produced. Much of that cheap production is directly related to mechanized farming and the cheap production of petrochemicals such as fertilizers and pesticides. Without these petrochemicals, agricultural productivity would drastically decline. Approximately 90% of the energy in crop production is oil and natural gas. About a third of the energy is to reduce the labor input from 500 hours per acre to 4 hours per acre in grain production. About two-thirds of the energy is for production, of which about one-third is for fertilizers alone. Agricultural products are delivered to cities and remote areas by vehicles that run on oil.


A major problem in many of the oil producing regions around the world is political stability. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have many social problems. Social programs are dependent on oil. The only business in most of these countries is the business of oil. The threats of war and internal strife are always a concern. Iran and Iraq have been to war and both have ethnic derision from minorities such as the Kurds who desire their own homeland. Saudi and Kuwait have had their own difficulties with Iran during the so-called "Desert Storm" event, and both must keep a wary eye on Iran. Even now Iraq accuses Kuwait of sniping it's oil along the border and has threatened renewed military action. The possibility always exists that another Arab-Israeli conflict could arise. There are numerous possible events that could disrupt oil supplies from the middle-east. As oil supply becomes tighter, we could expect the next president of the US go begging the Iraqis and Iranians for oil and better diplomatic relations. Israel could even eventually find itself without a benefactor.

The oil producing regions of Africa and South America are also vulnerable. Angola and Nigeria have been through several civil wars, and the current governments are young and constantly under threat from renewed internal conflict. Venezuela has elected a socialist that has openly praised Fidel Castro of Cuba as a hero of the people, and has also instituted economic and political changes that could erupt into civil strife as well. Colombia has oil reserves, pipelines, and refineries that are under constant attack by revolutionaries (bandits?). The tight supplies of oil could be disrupted at anytime and therefore the threat to the world's economies from political instability is very real.

Black BladeThe Rise and Fall of Hydro-Carbon Man" - Part II #728544/6/02; 02:10:39

The Rise and Fall of Hydro-Carbon Man" - Part II


The coming oil price shock/oil crisis will make the last temporary oil price shocks look very mild in comparison. On January 21, 1980, the price of gold on the London fixing set a record at $850 an ounce. This ended an inflationary decade of oil price shocks, freezing of Iran's assets and Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, which sent investors rushing for gold and silver. The average London price of gold for the year was $614.63 per ounce. Could it happen again? You bet it will. Gold has it's own intrinsic value and several thousand years of history is not about to vaporize and disappear. As philosopher George Santayana stated, that those who forget history are condemned to repeat it.

Every postwar recession has been preceded by a rapidly rising price of oil. Gold prices lagged the price of rising oil, yet the price of gold eventually rose as well. The question one must ask: If oil is rising in price, then why is gold not rising as well?

When the price of oil had risen in the past due to OPEC oil supply disruptions, the price of gold responded with a price rise as well. In 1974 gold rose 20% in response to the Arab oil embargo, and in 1979 gold also rose over 125% in response to the overthrow of the Shah of Iran and subsequent Iranian revolution and hostage crisis. Oil and Gold have had roughly a 15 barrels of oil to 1 ounce of gold ratio. If this ratio were to be stable, then at today's $35.00/bbl, gold should be valued at $525.00/oz. If oil were to be priced at $50.00/bbl as some sources expect will likely happen, then gold should rise to $750.00/oz. Oil at an inflation adjusted value of $140.00/bbl that roughly matches its past record high, then gold should reach $2100/oz. (similar to recent projections in Forbes magazine).

Another way to look at the oil-gold relationship is to compare pricing during the 1973 Arab oil embargo and into 1974. Oil rose in price from $2.00/bbl in 1971 to $10.00/bbl in 1974, or a 500% increase in price. Following the relationship of the oil-gold ratio, an increase of 300% in the price of oil (similar to recent prices) should yield a price of $962.50/oz. for gold. A similar increase in the price of oil as the 1973 500% increase in the price of oil should yield a price of $1375.00/oz gold (based on a recent $275.00/oz gold and a projected $50.00/bbl oil). These back of the envelope calculations are based on the recent price of gold at $275.00/oz, which in my opinion is grossly undervalued, so it would appear upon closer examination that gold could and should increase much more in value. However one were to look at it, the oil:gold ratio appears to be out of balance and is due to readjust to the norm.


Why is gold priced so low? If some are correct in their assumptions that the Saudi's and others in the Middle-eastern countries prefer payment in gold for oil (as per the 1920's oil deals), then they also have an interest in having a low gold price vs. a high oil price. This yields more gold per barrel of oil. This is unsustainable of course and eventually the lid will blow off unless some powerful forces cap the price of gold. The current gold prices are unsustainable in face of a growing energy crisis. As the price of oil continues to rise, the producers will not be very excited about receiving devalued dollars for their diminishing natural resource. The Central Bankers know that there is pressure on gold so there is a concerted effort to malign the perception of gold as portfolio insurance and as an investment. That is the primary reason for the Bank of England auctions, and the various other auctions that have come from European central banks and from the little CB's that can be leaned on to submit to their stronger cousins. This is only a temporary measure as it cannot continue indefinitely. There is not enough gold to continue with this charade forever. The longer it continues, the more explosive the rise in the price of gold. This is apparently the reason for the frantic efforts by so-called "Gold Analysts" at the major Bullion Banks who engage in hysterical effort to talk down gold prices and damage gold's reputation as a hedge against inflation.

The situation is more dire as one recognizes that the LMBA and Bullion Bankers have loaned out millions of ounces at ridiculous interest rates to those who sell short gold and then invest the proceeds in the equities markets or in higher yielding government paper and scalp the spread (Gold Carry Trade). Simply put - that gold is gone. The forward selling gold producers borrow gold, sell it, and usually use the proceeds to advance their mining operations. Some miners, however, act as hedge funds and invest in higher yielding government paper and they too scalp the spread. When these miners get in trouble and go bankrupt, the counter-party bank is on the hook. It is in the best interest of the LBMA and Bullion Bankers to maintain the illusion that gold is abundant and move the price lower in an effort to discourage gold investment. A sharp rise in gold prices would likely result in "margin-call" requirements that could level many financial institutions and hedged miners.

Eventually, something has to give. As the price of oil continues to rise and the ripple effects work through the economy in the form of higher prices, that is inflation in spite of government manipulated gauges of inflation such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics US Consumer Price Indices (CPI) and Producer Price Indices (PPI), the price of gold will explosively rise in value like a tidal wave as it is recognized as a hedge against inflation. The Federal Reserve Bank is trying to slow the economy with mild on-again and off-again interest rate hikes in an effort to engineer a "soft- landing" This is likely to fail as it has in the last 8 out of 10 times it was attempted. The odds are against it. It is a delicate balancing act between adjusting interest rates and money supply. Once inflation is truly felt, then people will run to hard assets. If oil rises to $50.00/bbl, then the government will have an extremely difficult time hiding and manipulating the inflation figures.


Physical precious metals are not an investment as much as insurance for the possibilities of economic disaster, natural disaster, or even temporary disruptions such as family tragedy, illness or unemployment. Many people prepared for possible disruptions to everyday life in advance to Y2K. Fortunately there were few problems encountered during the transition from 1999 to 2000. Those who prepared for Y2K and remain so now are better positioned for the problems that may be encountered during the coming energy crisis. A prolonged recession should be expected. In a worse case scenario, hard assets such as gold, silver, and platinum bullion and coin will transfer wealth across any pending disaster. We have health insurance if we become ill or am injured, we have life insurance for our heirs should we pass away, we have insurance if we have an automobile accident, and we have home insurance in case our homes are damaged or destroyed. Does it not make sense to insure our investment portfolios as well?

Hard assets are king when all hell breaks loose. Is it any wonder then that George Soros buys vast tracts of land and in the Silver miner Apex Silver (SIL), that Bill Gates purchases 10.3% of Pan American Silver (PAAS), and that Warren Buffett purchases 137 million ounces of silver and keeps it offshore out of the grasp of a potentially hostile US Government? Does it not seem reasonable that one should follow the lead of those who are supposedly in the know? Why stop at hard assets? Have a storage program of food, water and necessities in storage in case of unemployment, natural disaster, or worse. Get out of debt as soon as possible. Get a well-stocked first-aid locker. Get firearms and ammunition for hunting wild game. Maybe even a wood burning stove and plenty of fire wood. Disaster may not come, but many people tend to sleep better at night knowing that they have "battened down the hatches" so to speak. Think of the panic during the Cuban missile crisis as people rushed to the super markets and stripped the shelves bare. Why even when Johnny Carson on the "Tonight Show" a few years ago on US television joked about a toilet paper shortage, he unwittingly created a shortage as people rushed to get plenty of toilet paper. You see, anything can happen, but then I (and a few others) sleep very well at night.


We have already learned the consequences of an oil crisis. In 1973 during the Arab oil embargo, the resulting higher costs were passed along to the consumer and the world's economies were thrown into recession. Those of course were only temporary blips. The world's economies are addicted to cheap oil. The new oil shock is coming and it is permanent. Hydro-Carbon man is going to suffer the effects of forced Hydro-Carbon withdrawal. Oil supplies from mature oil fields are diminishing and no new significant discoveries are being made to replace them. Current reserves have been inflated for political and economic reasons. Alternative and non-conventional energy sources are more costly and most are not likely to be recoverable. The discovery of new fields is not keeping up with current depletion rates. The crucial point however, is not when the world "runs out of oil," but rather the half-way point when production is no longer is increasing and when it begins to decline (Hubbert Peak), and ever increasing demand for oil forces prices to rise dramatically. There is a finite amount of oil. As oil reserves are depleted there will be rampant inflation and irreparable damage to economic growth. It is possible that much of the "non-conventional" oil may be eventually recoverable with new technology, new refining methods could conceivably be developed, and reclassified as "conventional" oil. However, at current prices these "non-conventional" sources are not profitable. The current infrastructure and refinery capacity limits our ability to keep up with demand. The world is an unstable place and the inability to expand energy only makes the world more unstable. The ratio of the historical oil to gold relationship is severely out of balance and offers a unique opportunity in gold (and silver) investments. Gold is about to reassert itself as a hedge against the coming inflationary pressures and world turmoil. "Hydro-Carbon Man" must adjust to his new environment of declining energy resources, higher energy costs, or go extinct.


Campbell, C.J., The Next Oil Price Shock: The World's Remaining Oil and Its Depletion," Energy Exploration and Exploitation, v. 13, no. 1, 1995, p. 36.

Campbell, C.J., The Coming Oil Crisis, Multi-Science Publishing Company & Petroconsultants, 1997.

Campbell, C.J., and Laherrere, J.H., The End of Cheap Oil, Scientific American, Mar. 1998.

Jin-YinIsrael#728554/6/02; 02:48:19

@darkhorse – totally agree with you about many of us not having understanding of all information through personal experience. Atrocities on both sides make this developing situation all the more difficult to grasp.

@DOWNUNDER – G'day. Trying to understand what the facts are help to better comprehend the world at large. I have no opinion on the subject and certainly don't want to pass judgement on who is right or wrong. Like many people I don't have a clear understanding of most of the facts anyway, that is why some of the facts, if true, I found interesting.

Yes the e-mail was one sided and that is why I asked a few questions in my commentary; rhetorical questions that highlighted such concerns. I would have also liked to receive an e-mail with a Palestinian view but didn't. Thanks for the heads up as next time I will be clearer so as to be better understood when posting, especially with such a touchy subject.

Black BladeThe Next Big Thing by Jim Puplava#728564/6/02; 03:01:05


During the 70's the U.S. experienced a loss of confidence in government and in financial paper. The period was characterized by a series of policy failures that directly contributed to a rise in inflation. Investors preferred to put their money in tangibles rather than intangibles. These graphs of gold, silver, and oil show the tremendous price rise of key commodities during this time. Other commodities such as grains, cotton, and base metals also rose in value. Everything tangible from gold, oil, real estate, and rare art to collectables rose in value. The stock markets languished during this same period as reflected in the previous graphs of the Dow Industrials. If you made money in stocks, it was mainly in small cap companies or the commodity producers.

Basic Needs and Population

My observations lead me to believe the next big move will be in commodities. I believe it will be driven by supply and demand factors aided and abetted by a growing world population. Food, water, and energy are necessities. These items aren't optional, but are considered basic necessities of life. Without them, civilization would perish. At the end of the last century, world population was estimated to be 6 billion. By the year, 2020 global organizations from the World Bank to the UN estimate the human population on this earth will grow to 9 billion people, a fifty percent increase from where we are today. This population growth will become the primary driver of the demand for commodities of all kinds, will special emphasis on clean water, energy, and food. This demand for basics will take place regardless of the condition of the economy be it inflationary of deflationary.

Central Bankers' Two-Front War

For these reasons it has been necessary to maintain confidence in all things financial be it stocks, bonds or currencies. Central bankers are fighting a two-front war. One front is in the financial system that requires constant injections of liquidity to hold back the debt defaults and prevent the system from collapsing. The other battle is to prevent users inside the system from shifting their funds to an alternative medium such as gold, silver, oil or any other tangible good that would compete with paper and credit. It is a lot like a fork in the road. On one side is the credit and paper money system that makes up the world's financial system. On the other road are tangible goods such as base metals, oil, silver and gold. The war is a constant battle where the public must be corralled on the one side of the road. Therefore, in a crisis, the only alternative is to shift from one paper asset to another rather than exit the system for the other side of the road.

Black Blade: A new Puplava report. Are we due For a Repeat? I say that it's very possible. Much is discussed in Puplava's article (a good read).

As always, get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, and start a nonperishable food and basic goods storage program.

BelgianThe euro's Ambitions#728574/6/02; 03:22:59

Still NOT yet recognized by the vast majorities of Dollar-blind, that the euro's alternative for STABILITY is Crucial ! Morgan Stanley for instance, classifies the euro in the Gold / SwissFr line !? As if the euro is a temporary refuge for temporary dollar-problems and holds nothing more than that. (mistake of course)
The euro is hesitant to show its real ambitions. Ambitions to overthrow Emperor Dollar ! Not an easy task, as we all do know. The plan/concept is there but some fear/hesitation to execute/materialize it,... reigns. The euro/gold-concept, needs the help and alliniation of Arabian oil. And it must be here that doubts might exist. Doubts about present or future division between Arabian oil producers themselves. Euroland and allies Doubts about the not foreseeable consequences of a substantial dollar fallout.
Doubts about the scale and intensity of US retaliatons.
These doubts must be living in Germany ! The French have much more selfconfidence (flexibility) on these matters.

A New Free Market for Physical Gold Trade, combined with another currency (the euro) must have some flaws and weaknesess. Can there be another kind of manipulation or unbalancing of power shifts ? Hot soup, isn't it ?

An alliance of Euroland + China + Russia + ME is quite a BIG piece of cake to put it undamaged on the currency table.
That's why the introduction of the "concept" must proceed with extreme care and precission. The architects and builders are a small minority of CEOs.

Whatever Welteke and his German faction might have in mind, is subordinate to the reality force and intentions of oil-euro allies. The POO and its consequences will inevitably bring the euro on the foreplan as the better "STABILITY" factor and tool ! Simply because of the *POSITIVE* Gold-Connection in blatant contrast with what the dollar has always stood for,... a Gold rival!

It is or the euro as a special (better) currency or the POO that will set Gold Free ! Both euro + Gold will enhance and perpetuate the initiated Gold move.

ST technical interpretation on POG : If 297,6$ holds a mini inverse SHS (bar-chart) is in place and a fib. target of 329$ is the next attraction point. Will see if POG rise has dramatic consequences for the shorters (Deutsche Bank included), already unloading their threathening derivatives or not ?

Black BladeMarket Wrap Up – Puplava#728584/6/02; 03:26:32

Uncertainty of War


There were three factors that influenced the markets this week: 1) tensions in the Middle East, 2) economic numbers, and 3) earnings warnings. The ongoing tensions in the Middle East had the greatest impact on the markets with worries of the conflict erupting into a regional conflagration. Suicide bombings continued all week as Israeli troops took over and occupied many key Palestinian towns. The uncertainty of war breaking out in the region and the impact it would have on the oil markets helped to keep energy prices high this week. The Bush/Powell peace initiative helped to cool down tensions, which resulted with oil and natural gas prices pulling back by the end of the week. But there was still a sense of unease with investors with so many unknowns having no closure.

The Economy

This week the data was mixed with most economic reports indicating a weakening economy. The week began with a drop in U.S. factory orders, which fell in February. This report contrasted earlier reports on the manufacturing sector that indicated the 18-month slump was beginning to recover. Factory orders fell by 0.1% in February, the first drop since November of last year.

Other reports out this week showed the unemployment rate rose last month from 5.5% in February to 5.7% in March. It looks like those numbers may go even higher with a sharp jump in jobless claims this week. The number of Americans filing unemployment claims jumped from 396,000 to 460,000. Companies continue to downsize in an effort to squeeze costs down. In this competitive environment companies lack pricing power due to still competition, so what is left is companies are reigning in costs, which means further reductions in payroll.

Black Blade: I had thought to comment on the rise of 58,000 new jobs vs. the rise in the unemployment rate. How can this be? Simply put we are looking at more BLS trickery. These are "seasonally adjusted" numbers (read statistically manipulated) that ignore many thousands more who are out of work from various sectors that are conveniently ignored (otherwise there would be too many embarrassing questions to address). Remember that Februarys 66,000 new jobs disappear to be readjusted to a 2,000 lost jobs ("seasonally adjusted" ones of course or the losses would be much greater). Notice how the Trolls on CNBC and other media focus on the new jobs while neglecting to refer to the unemployment rate rising from 5.5% to 5.7%. More and more US economic data makes little sense – all that is required as far as the BLS is concerned is that enough people are fooled. Fooling the US public is becoming a more difficult proposition each day as trading volume on US markets have fallen off a cliff, unemployment rolls keep growing, corporate and consumer debt grows rapidly, corporations warn on earnings at a growing pace, corporate accounting scandals appear daily, public confidence reaches for all time lows, etc. The House of Cards is wavering and ready to fall. We do live in "Interesting Times".

Black BladeMiddle East crisis sets off rush into gold#728594/6/02; 03:44:10


LONDON (Reuters) — The Middle East's plunge into turmoil has driven gold prices toward their highest in more than two years as investors scramble for a safe home for their money. Gold prices have gained nearly 4% this week as Israeli tanks and troops poured into the West Bank in reprisal for a wave of Palestinian suicide bombings unleashed in Israel. With the West Bank in turmoil, speculation rife over a U.S.-led attack on Iraq and ongoing military deployment in Afghanistan, gold's reputation as a retreat in times of trouble has shone through.

Bullish gold fundamentals, including falling supplies from mines worldwide and a reluctance by producers to sell unmined nuggets in forward markets, have also underpinned the rally. "There's more interest being seen in gold now than in the last 15 years. There's been a mindset change," said Peter Hillyard, senior manager at ANZ Investment Bank. "Israel, Iraq, additional troops in Afghanistan, higher oil prices — the list is endless. In that environment gold goes up. ... There's enough going on to add gold as a portfolio diversifier," Hillyard said.

In local currency terms, gold prices in India, the world's top consumer, were at five-year highs and at nine-year highs in Australian dollar terms, Norman said. Japanese savers, worried over the safety of their bank deposits and the yen, have also scurried into gold to bank a dollar-denominated asset away from a lumbering stock market. Gold was trading in London at $301.00/301.50 on Friday, off its highs after President Bush called for a halt to Israel's weeklong drive into the West Bank and a withdrawal of Israeli forces from the area.

Black Blade: The list is endless indeed. Meanwhile the Bankers, Investment Houses, and Central Banks are walking a tightrope… misstep anywhere and the POG is off to the races once again.

Black BladeEnergy crisis costs ongoing #728604/6/02; 04:02:28


Portland General Electric ratepayers will spend the next 31/2 years paying for an energy crisis that lasted little more than 12 months. This week, PGE's 738,000 customers began reimbursing PGE for $90.9 million in unanticipated electricity costs incurred last year when wholesale power prices skyrocketed. The payments will continue through August 2005.

Black Blade: The lack of preparation is costly. Yet the "Grasshopper" mentality has set in again – outta sight, outta mind. At least until the next "Energy Crisis".

Black BladeVenezuela oil dispute escalates#728614/6/02; 04:13:32


The dispute between Venezuelan oil workers and the government has intensified, increasing the risk of a supply squeeze. Protests already caused some disruption to oil supplies on Thursday, and the workers at state-owned oil firm PDVSA vowed to step up the strike on Friday. "Workers of all sectors of PDVSA are starting today a progressive, collective suspension of work in operational and administrative areas," a spokesman for the group said.

The news comes amid growing concern over global oil supplies due to political troubles in the Middle East. Venezuela is the world's fourth largest exporter of crude oil and is a key supplier to the US market.

Black Blade: Venezuela is the largest oil importer to the US.

Black BladeAlcoa 1st-Qtr Profit Falls 46 Percent as Sales Drop #728624/6/02; 04:21:24


Pittsburgh, April 5 (Bloomberg) -- Alcoa Inc., the world's largest aluminum company, said first-quarter profit fell 46 percent and sales dropped because slumping demand from aircraft and automotive makers eroded prices. Earnings fell to $218 million, or 26 cents a share, from $404 million, or 46 cents, in the year-earlier period, Alcoa said in a statement. Sales declined for a third quarter in a row, dropping 19 percent to $4.98 billion.

Black Blade: Amazingly, yet not surprisingly, the spin from the media Trolls was that earnings fell 46% but "beat analysts estimates". Hmmm… This ridiculous spin has to be getting old. That is reflected in extremely low trading volumes on Wall Street.

Black BladeAGA Natural Gas Storage#728634/6/02; 05:13:18

The American Gas Association (AGA) has stated that natural gas in storage is at very high levels compared to last year. That may or may not be true due to disputes about sample population collection, data acquisition, and the methodology used. However, it should be noted that withdrawal rates have been exceptionally high – at times several times the withdrawal rate of last year. Natural Gas is the real sleeper that is slipping below the radar.

Note from the graph (at the link – click on AGA Storage, then graph or table menu) that storage levels are not all that much out of line compared to previous years.

The reason for such low natural gas storage levels last year are due to the booming "New Economy". In fact ever-more energy is consumed as more computers, Internet backbone, server farms, telecom infrastructure, etc. are built and used. This dramatic growth in the "New Economy" helped to create last years "energy crisis" as demand outstripped energy supply.

Natural Gas demand has been increasing at a very rapid pace as new power plants have been built in response to last years "energy crisis". Virtually every new power plant being built or planned is natural gas-fired due to environmental and political regulations that make coal, oil, and hydroelectric less desirable. Fuel cell technology will eventually be built, however, the fuel here is also natural gas (easier and energy efficient to break four hydrogens from one carbon than it is to break two hydrogens from one oxygen). That will of course add more pressure to natural gas supply. The new energy commission in California is studying this possibility with stacked fuel cells (daisy-chain) for critical centers such as hospitals, government services, etc.

Natural Gas demand will rise as aging nuclear power plants are retired or shutdown for maintenance. Recently boric acid corrosion has become a concern as the Besse-Davis nuclear power plant near Toledo has been found to be damaged. There are 69 such nuclear power plants (Three Mile Island design) that may be shutdown for inspections and possible repairs. The whole process may take anywhere from 90 days to 2 years.

Hydroelectric power is becoming questionable due to drought in many parts of the US. On the East Coast from New England to Georgia, drought has been enough of a concern that some regions have implemented water restrictions. There will be a greater reliance on other sources of power as water levels will likely be kept high as possible in some rivers for environmental reasons.

Coal-fired and Oil-fired power generation will probably be restricted due to lack of "carbon credits" that are routinely traded among power producers. Older plants are being retired after many years of use and the switch has been to natural gas while "carbon credits" are used to keep other older power plants operating.

Drilling activity for natural gas exploration and production has fallen to very low levels (Rig counts are far below last year's levels). This may result in a shortfall in supply this coming fall and winter – at the worst possible time. Production has already fallen by nearly 3% while decline rates in several fields have increased by as much as 29%. As reserves are not being replenished the outcome is almost a forgone conclusion. Last year with record drilling activity, production increased only 2%. The AGA storage data could very well be misleading and giving a false sense of security. If the economy is in recovery as some economist claim (doubtful), then we may find a different kind of "October Surprise".

- Black Blade

nickel62Elephant size gold mines really as scarce as the giant oil field discoveries that YGM and BB mentioned!#728644/6/02; 06:12:02

As far as I can remember, the number of truely large gold discoveries is really quite limited. The Goldstrike mine in Nevada for all intents and purposes has built both Newmont and Barrick into what they are today. You have the Yanacocha mine in Peru, The Red Lake Mine of GOld Corp which is really the same ore body as the Placer Dome Mine Campbell Mine,a thousand yards away, and numerous other large districts in the world that have two or more mines sharing them and produce a million ounces or more. Not many of those type babies out there. And really you need that kind of economies of scale and high grades to be producing at the kinds of low total production costs that you need to stay in business at $300/ounce gold. We keep hearing about the ability of the mines to flood the world with production but realistically unless the technology has changed significantly in the last six years, even at $400/ounce the number of new production mines that could produce above 500,000 ounces per year is rather limited. I would be interested in a discussion where we shared our collective knowledge about what is out there in terms of potential new finds or more likely old fines that became uneconomic at sub $300/ounce gold and now might have a chance of comming back. Anyone interested? I don't mean touting various juniors by the way but talking about where the gold districts that could be brought back are and who has the best mothballed type of properties. As we all know the number of actual exploration plays that are out there is very limited. What do you think? I hope you understand that there can be a difference between sharing areas of potential and touting spec stocks. I have no interest in the latter, thanks. But there are some commodity discoveries of the past that might be finally starting to pay off. LEt me know if the members of the table think this is not doable.
BelgianWelteke...#728654/6/02; 06:38:01

Germany : "Welt am Sonntag" (World on sunday-Finance) by Ulrich Reitz : Translation
Bundesbank president E.Welteke made a beautifull eastern present to his friend (!) Financeminister H. Eichel (SPD-Socialist Party Deutschland) with the past intervieuw on Germany's Gold reserves (parts of) for interest bearing (German) stocks (utilities-RWE-?). Welteke will elaborate on what exactly he was suggesting previously on april the 11.
H. Eichel is happely waiting to see if sleeping Gold will be exchanged and handed over for interest producing paper.
Welteke's plan will bring nothing to compensate for the Brussel's deficit criteria. That was stated by the CBs. No more sales before 2004 (W.Duisenberg.)

April 11 will bring exclusion on this ridiculous little "political" (small) play that Welteke has been bringing. First statement was to test the water. Duisenberg responded and now the finale on april 11. Very little storm in a very little glas of water.

When you Google on Welteke's past intervieuws, you get a nice picture on his personality ! Judge it for yourself.

YGMGATA#728664/6/02; 06:53:09

Finally!... some serious Media coverage....

If Chris already posted this then please forgive me...YGM

Le Metropole Members,

[GATA] GATA cracks U.S. news media blackout
Date: 4/4/2002 8:25:39 PM Central Standard Time
From: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
To: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

9:08p ET Thursday, April 4, 2002

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

A remarkable financial market commentary that
centered on GATA's work was distributed
yesterday by the Knight-Ridder/Tribune news
service and published at the CNN and London
Evening Standard Internet sites.

While we don't know at this hour how extensively
the commentary has been published in the United
States, the Knight-Ridder/Tribune news service is
delivered to many major newspapers owned by that
company, including the Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia
Inquirer, and Miami Herald. So with this commentary,
we have finally cracked the U.S. media blackout
on the scheme to suppress the gold price.

This is all the more delightful because GATA
has not had any direct contact with the commentary's
author, Richard Morrissey, publisher of That is, GATA's work has been
reaching many people in the financial markets despite
the U.S. media blackout.

So don't despair at the dismissal of Reg Howe's
lawsuit in U.S. District Court in Boston. The
suit is not only is still alive with the motion
Howe has just filed for a revision of the
dismissal judgment, but the suit already had
brought the gold-suppression scheme to an
international audience. Exposure of that scheme
remains our biggest weapon, and we continue to
attack with it.

The Morrissey commentary appears below, along
with the Internet link to it at the CNN site. If
you use the link, please close any spacing that
may appear in it in this dispatch.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *

Gold Aims to Recapture Its Lustre
As a Safe Hedge in Troubled Times

By Richard Morrissey
Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News
April 3, 2002

After years of playing the part of Cinderella
to other more-favored financial assets, gold
is finally shaking off its dowdy image and
taking a shot at gaining the prize for best-
performing asset market of 2002.

Since 1997, $300 an ounce has been a ceiling
for gold as a combination of central bank
auctions and lending to hedge funds, forward
sales by gold producers, and the much-touted
death of inflation conspired to keep the
price well below its historic high of $870
hit in 1980.

To those gold bugs who have never given up
hope that this once-lauded store of value
would again take its rightful place in the
pantheon of credible financial instruments,
the poor performance of the commodity has
been nothing short of a conspiracy.

Indeed, according to many gold aficionados,
particularly those at the Gold Anti-Trust
Action Committee, the U.S. Federal Reserve,
the U.S. Treasury, and European central
banks, in league with major U.S. investment
banks, have conspired to keep the price of
gold low.

Gold broke through the $300 level to reach a
two-year high of $307.80 on 8 February. But
the move did not last long, and as the price
drifted off German Bundesbank President Ernst
Welteke conveniently speculated that Germany
might at some stage start selling gold. The
timing of his statement was seen by many as
an attempt by the central banks to ensure the
price of the commodity remained capped below
$300. However, the price has since rebounded,
trading back above the key $300 level last

The latest rebound has been driven by new-
found interest from the hedge funds, many of
which are betting that persistent selling by
large investment banks to keep the price
down, and central bank comments to achieve
the same end, will ultimately fail to cap the
upward trend.

Indeed, the talk now is that this so-called
cartel is about to get its comeuppance, with
some gold optimists suggesting gold may hit
$600 or even $1,000 an ounce.

The Enron scandal has brought to the fore the
issue of cartels and especially the role of
so-called bullion banks that reportedly have
very large short positions in gold via the
derivatives market. These are now being
squeezed as the price of the commodity rises.
Indeed, there is wildfire speculation among
some U.S. gold watchers that if the price of
gold moves even $20-$30 higher we are going
to see these shorts getting hammered.

There are plenty of other reasons why gold
and gold-related stocks are worth serious
consideration. As well as Enron, the markets
also have to contend with Argentina's debt
default and the huge bankruptcy cases of U.S.

Another factor favoring gold is the
quadrupling of purchases of bullion by
Japanese consumers worried about the safety
of their bank deposits. Also, investors in
the Middle East have started to actively
purchase the metal as tensions over Iraq,
Israel, and Palestine mount.

Finally the all-powerful U.S. dollar, which
has held up remarkably well in the face of a
weaker U.S. economy, evaporating corporate
profits, and heightened worries over the
threat from terrorism, may be set for a
downturn, which usually means higher gold

Against this backdrop there is a genuine case
for thinking that gold provides an attractive
hedge against financial and political stress.

However, gold has to become more than just an
icon of gold bugs, conspiracy theorists, and
short-term speculators. Instead it needs to
broaden its appeal as an asset among
mainstream investors anxious to protect
themselves in an increasingly uncertain
financial and political environment.


Richard Morrissey is publisher of



Centennial Precious Metals
3033 East 1st Ave.
Suite 403
Denver, Colorado 80206
Michael Kosares, Proprietor
US (800) 869-5115
Canada 1-800-294-9462
European Union 00-800-2760-2760
Australia 0011-800-2760-2760
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

***Many other Coin dealers omitted here by me as per advertising rules. But USA GOLD is at the "TOP" of the list.......YGM.

HipplebeckThe public debt (reposted)#728674/6/02; 07:33:35

Just to bring it into focus on a real life level,
Every child born in this country is starting off with a debt of over $20,000.
That's right.
Every one of us owes more than $20,000 on top of any personal debt we have run up.
If the government balances the budget from here on in, we will all have to pay $133 per month for the next 30 years to pay off
what has already been spent. (at 7% interest).
Yes that's right.
For a family of four that's $532 a month.

Cavan Man@Sierra Madre#728684/6/02; 08:01:06

History can only be made in the context of preceeding events.
CanuckPondering#728694/6/02; 08:04:57

I saw Hamilton's recent essay on oil/gold ratio's (tks Waverider). He rediscusses the ancient 15/1 gold/oil ratio and outlines today's 11 to 1 ratio discussing if oil is too expensive and/or gold too cheap.

Other ratios are interesting, the Dow/Gold, Dow/Silver, Gold/Silver, Gold/XAU etc.

Ratios are statistical, what do they mean? In the case of the gold/oil ratio Hamilton makes the point that from 1950 to 1971 the ratio averaged some 14.8 and in the last 30 years it has increased to over 16.

So where is it going? Well, reading the numerous 'cheap oil' essays, posts and messages it seems to me that the ratio may swing strongly in oil's favour in the next few decades. As cheap oil becomes scarce will it's price not accelerate faster than gold? Let's guess a little. When the last barrel of oil is sucked out of the ground (in 2099??) suppose the ratio is 1 (gold $10,000/oil $10,000). Alarming, absurb, impossible? In 2006/2008, as we approach Hubbert's Peak, oil may fetch $80/bbl while gold languishes at $400/oz. The ratio, a mathematical convenient 5.

The long term view of 15/16 as the historical gold/oil ratio in my opinion will drop.

Silver is in my books as a love/hate metal; I can't decide to be bullish or bearish. Yes, silver is consumed (little above ground) and more industrial use than gold but silver has indeed lost it's largest use. That use, as we know, is the making of coin/currency. The US had a hoard of 2 billion ounces many, many moons ago and now it has a mere handful. This is alarming at face value but the other side of the coin is why do they need it? Why does the US Treasury and/or the US Mint need a massive stockpile of silver? Do they stockpile zinc, lead, ....apples?

The ageless/endless commodity/monetary argument for silver appears to have reached its conclusion. Silver has slowly shifted over the last 30 years to commodity status. Even the goods folks here and at other forums boast of more and more commodity uses and there is (as one must admit) less and less monetary use of silver.

Some time ago I chanced on a Dow/Silver ratio chart. I forget the exact numbers but I recall numbers of 100 and 200 to 1 generations ago while the ratio hit a mind-numbing 2200 when the Dow peaked at 11,000 and change. Where will this end up?

Back to the gold/oil ratio. Let's assume for the moment that alternatives to oil, NG, coal etc. will not be discovered/invented in the next 20 years. These conventional sources of energy will rise; given the assumption above, this is not a debatable fact. So, if the gold/oil ratio is to increase to its historical 16/1 gold must rise. Why will it rise?

If silver is being de-monetized and the debate rages that the PTB is doing the same where all this lead?

Forget about the ratios, I can concoct a corn/apples ratio that will be as meaningless as any other. The bottom line, IMVHO, is the attack on the monetary value of gold.

As Hamilton pointed out in 1995, the traditional 16/1 gold/ratio was severed. So began the de-monetization of the yellow metal. This is where my focus will be, trying to understand where gold is headed. Will it follow oil? Will the PTB lose control? Will gold be a commodity metal for high-performance printed circuit cards and jewellery?

The WA gave us a crumb but I do not know for sure if it's for real. Yeah, yeah "gold will remain an inportant reserve", blah, blah, blah. The $260/330/260 ramp up/ ramp down didn't convince me of the EU's intentions, seemingly not the market's either.

We know as much today as we did 5 or 6 years ago, nothing.

(Must run, sorry for the non-proofread; I await the flaming!!!)

YGMWildcard in China's future......#728704/6/02; 08:05:00

Internal strife can & will deflect external plans of Hard Line Communist Leaders, IMHO.

China's labor
unrest a portent
by Manik Mehta*
Taipei: Taiwan
TNA News with Commentary
No. 330, Weekend 6-7 April 2002

The pressure cooker has been whistling for quite some time, but few international analysts have taken notice of what has been happening in mainland China. The euphoria over what many anticipate will be a larger market has drowned out the cries of laborers, who are afraid of joining the ever-increasing hordes of the jobless.

With Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji's new emphasis on productivity, it is natural to expect millions of workers to be laid off from unproductive, bloated government organizations. Indeed, the mainland's labor problems will intensify further, with inefficient, unproductive units facing closure and workers being phased out of hitherto cozy sinecures. Layoffs will create social unrest. Workers depend on such jobs for basic survival. The socialist thinking of many workers, who still cling to past ideals regarding "overall good," has still not been completely eliminated. Organized labor in state factories is very much a problem — a situation that has come to the fore in recent days.

The mainland's "Rust Belt" was rocked March 21 by escalating unrest in two cities. Workers, angry about unpaid wages and job losses, took to the streets in face-to-face confrontations with military police. The communist leadership is fearful of social unrest in that the majority still lives in poverty while a small minority along the southeastern coast enjoys prosperity.

Eye-witnesses in the northern province of Liaoning told journalists that the military police had to be called in to safeguard the local administration office in the industrial center of Liaoyang, and break up demonstrations. While eye-witnesses said there were 10,000 demonstrators, local officials, in typical fashion, denied that there had been any protests at all.

Another scene occurred in Daqing — an oil town in Heilongjiang Province in the North — where employed and laid-off workers picketed the local office of China National Petroleum Corp. Angry protestors overturned a car, although it was not clear if there were any occupants inside the vehicle or whether anyone was injured. Despite all these incidents, the communist regime in Beijing declared that "nothing had happened" and that everything was "normal." But the "normal" situation continued to deteriorate further. Thousands of angry demonstrators marched to government offices calling for the release of four labor leaders, who had been arrested. Three leaders were arrested while holding talks with government officials in Liaoyang. The fourth was arrested near his house.

Strikes and demonstrations were unusual when workers were guaranteed jobs regardless of whether they were engaged in productive work or not. But as modernization continued and competition became fiercer, particularly after accession to the World Trade Organization, inefficient state-owned firms are being closed and the ranks of the unemployed continue to swell.

While demonstrations have, by and large, remained nonviolent, burgeoning unemployment will produce a great deal of worker frustration. Such frustration can lead to social unrest that may eventually culminate in violent upheavals. Already, the size of the demonstrations and intensity of the protests have taken both local and foreign experts by surprise. Workers believe that they have been cheated by factory managers and by extension the state, which after using them for decades is now throwing them out onto the streets.

The communist regime deployed armed police to quell what have been some of the largest protests in the country, highlighting the pressure the Chinese Communist Party is under from millions of workers who have lost their jobs since reform began. The workers at the Daqing oil company were particularly angered by a plan aimed at abolishing welfare benefits in exchange for a one-off payment unless workers continued to contribute to the pension fund, despite no longer being employed.

Many are already wondering if these protests will one day turn as volatile as those held at Tiananmen Square in 1989. Such an eventuality cannot be ruled out. After having jumped on the WTO bandwagon, the mainland's main priority is to remain competitive in global markets.

According to independent sources, another 20 million job losses are expected nationwide because of WTO membership. Indeed, as the mainland opens its market to imports, it will not only face the onslaught of sophisticated foreign technology but also products of superior quality. As purchasing power grows, a quality-conscious class of people will be more inclined to purchase imports.

The International Confederation of Free Trade Unions stated that workers in Daqing have established an unofficial union and that demonstrations have spread to other oilfields as an expression of solidarity. Activists are reportedly hiding to avoid arrest.

The Daqing unrest is reminiscent of trade union activity in communist Poland in the early 1980s when an unknown shipyard worker named Lech Walesa emerged as a trade union leader. He banded workers together, eventually leading them to liberate the country from the communist yoke. Is the mainland next?

*Manik Mehta is a free-lance writer based in New York.

YGMMore failures......Who's "Next"??#728714/6/02; 08:25:15

Just the "Tip of the Iceberg" .......And the Public Investor Rides the Titanic....

even surpassing that of Enron.

A Bloomberg wire on Thursday pointed to the fact
that, according to Moody's Investors Service,
the corporate bond default by Enron last year
amounted to $9.9 billion ***(excluding bank credits and derivatives, of course),***
while the British cable-TV company NTL, based in New York,
is now about to default on $11.5 billion of corporate bonds.

On Monday this week, NTL was not able to meet interest payments
on its bonds. As Bloomberg writes: "It now has time until May 1
to make good on the payment or trigger
the world's biggest corporate debt default,
which would send it into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection from

NTL is the leading cable-TV group in Britain.
Its stock price plunged 43% on Monday alone,
while its market capitalization since the beginning of 2001 melted down from $11 billion to $23 million.

London's Financial Times notes that with total debt
more than 500 times larger than market value,
NTL surely qualifies for the "Guinness Book" of records.

said today that it expects to post the biggest annual loss
by a Japanese nonfinancial company. NTT said it will record
a loss of 865 billion yen ($6.5 billion) for the fiscal year
ended March 31 of this year. This will result from NTT writing
2 trillion yen ($15 billion) in its investments in overseas
companies AT&T Wireless of America, Royal KPN of Netherland's
mobile phone unit, and Verio, Inc. of America,
and including a reorganization charge of NTT's own domestic unit.

Meanwhile, financially troubled Worldcom announced it would
layoff another 3,700 workers, or 4% of its total workforce.
Worldcom is America's second largest long-distance phone company,
and the world's biggest carrier of Internet traffic.

The HoopleHandy dandy references#728724/6/02; 08:28:15

I have come to use about 6 reference points to gauge the health (or lack of) of the U.S. economy. While these aren't anything new it quickly gets me to real information that can't be seasonally adjusted, hedonically deflated, or any other form of skewed reporting. So unless you just like watching Bartiromo blather about why the arrows are all red you can get your cost down to a weekly Barron's , a quick visit to your state web site, and visiting this site to convert those worthless fiats into money.

* IBM / GE stock prices - this is the faith in the market, period. If either did an Enron its all over.

* JPM/ Chase - barometer of derivatives bubble. When trillions go by- by this flag will be bright red.

* Fannie/ Freddie and HD - barometer of housing bubble. This is mostly the only prop under the economy right now. Trillions of government-backed cheap mortgages are doing the trick. For how long?

* Insider selling - Wall Street faith (or lack of) in Wall Street. As they say they are talking the talk, but aren't walking the walk right now.

* State sales tax collections - measures the real economic vitality and not just vague references to recovery. Our state just had a 9% drop in collections for the month of March. It isn't recovering if the sales tax revenue is dropping.

* M-3 non-adjusted - the real inflation rate. When M-3 was about a trillion gold was still about $300. Now M-3 has surpassed 7 trillion and still the same $300 gold. I figure the delayed rate therefore at $300 per trillion, or $2,100 for the real price of today's gold. Whenever I see 50 billion added almost weekly to M-3 I figure gold is up about $16.50 that week. Anything less is suppression. Remember when 1 share of Amazon would buy 2 oz of gold? Now it would barely cover the premium to spot. Think dollar instead of Amazon stock and you get a better idea of the risk. I know there are many excellent guides other than these 6 but I really think it clearly and quickly gives a picture.

miner49erBelgian @ Welteke#728734/6/02; 10:08:10

Very interesting info... great analysis!

On the topic of Germany, do you have any thoughts regarding their unification? It had always seemed to me, that the 1:1 West/Ost Mark exchange would manifest itself in much worse price inflation. Yet, despite all the economists warnings, it seemed politically pre-determined, and indeed, that is what happened. And, in the same way (on a smaller scale) that the U.S. seemingly mystified its critics when it broke from gold in 71, so this superinflated new German state has had only mild inflationary indigestion, hardly the rupturing ulcer their physicians warned against.

Regarding the U.S. dollar actions of the 70s, a more complex understanding of factors like oil, gold, and the politics regarding a replacement currency, help fill in the gaps. Do you think there are any such considerations to be had in the German situation as well?

While Russian troops left the East ostensibly as a bankrupt, vanquished foe, with little alternative, do you think there was any other price paid for such an easy withdrawal? Seems to me, that despite the blown up state of the Soviet "empire," at that time, this was truly one of their prizes. It seems odd they let it go with so little fuss...

All this to suggest the question, if there were prices paid for an "easy" absorption of East back into West, was payment deferred to sometime in the future? Is payment coming due in this day?

While an official intervention on the part of a German utility (presumably because it needs help), is a typical short-term political goodie, it seems there would be more to it. Is this utility some metamorphosis of an old East German utility? If so, I would gather there are not too few shareowners still, that were former Soviet officials. This being some way of washing a payout promised a decade ago through transparent political channels. Maybe not, but I'm sure this kind of thinking goes on.

If gold is about to undergo an "official" revaluation, there are settlements that need to be made before the fact in cheap gold, just as much as settlements will be made after the fact, in revalued gold. Depending on who had strength in the bargaining position at the time...

Gotta run right now... will check in later. Would love to hear your take, though...


mikal@Canuck, All#728744/6/02; 10:16:39

By Hugo Salinas Price- "The right way to use silver in coinage." Written last fall and more relevant today than ever. This excerpt from the link concerns full legal tender status for silver!!!: "...Russians have plans similar to one we have..." Also he wrote in February 2002, this gem: "Mexicans buy more gold"-
mikalCorrect title to link below: "The right way to use silver in coinage. Part 2" #728754/6/02; 10:23:18

Site links other articles in English or Spanish
nickel62The Hoople Thanks for the Handy Dandy Quick References#728764/6/02; 11:06:30

I found them very intriguing and most likly correct.
BelgianHoi Miner49er#728774/6/02; 11:25:22

I doubt that any Gold was/is/will be used for eventual Ost/West settlements !? Think you are running a bit too far with the Welteke Gold incitement. But indeed, Gold stands at the end of unemployment > contraction > stagfla > currency depreciation + welfare (re-distribution) etc. Basically confetti expansion in economic contraction, should be accompagnied with Gold (POG) value adjustments.
But that's what the ECB is doing (shy though) with its quarterly marking to market of Gold !!! Germany's reunification + expansion to Balkan and Russia is expansion. But is it a passive (redistribution) or a healthy productive expansion !? And here comes that desire of a specific monetary policy of the unified Germany, within the rest of Euroland. Yes Germany wants and has the capability of growing faster and deeper than the rest of us. And all this when they lost their total autonomy on monetary policy.
So far the euro and EMU has protected Euroland from heavier inflationarry burdens. But how difficult is speed of growth (different speeds of growth) and stability compatible in an Euroland with different economic velocities. This creates tensions and is reason for political fights (Welteke) on different programs. Euroland the Big "Compromis" ! Uhhgg.

Internal EMU tensions work on this quarterly valuation of the ECB gold reserves and on top of that the remaining goldreserves of the respective 12 member National Central Banks. Imagine you having to manage a household with 12 spouses (smile with understanding) ? And these 12 spouses have different spending patterns, but tied up to the Miner Agreement (WA) for periods of 5 years you follow me ?
Add to the problem that it is not only your 12 spouses (EMU) but also other big spenders (U/UK/Japan/etc)having signed the WA and not belonging to your household. Woehaaa !

The final intention of FREE GOLD is having a constant Valuation of the Physical trade as a reflection of monetary management ! Bad management with strong currency depreciation = Higher POG or inversely.
This is surely not yet reflected in the present quarterly price marking of POG by the ECB !!! POG in euro is escorting the dollar/euro or euro/dollar trap ! Note that the US Gold is only reclassified and not marked to market since 30 years. And w've not yet come to any explanation for that reclassification and the possible role of Germany
into this. I'm at a complete loss here ! But don't give up searching.
Kind Regards to you Miner49er.

slingshotRobotGuy#728784/6/02; 11:51:00


What was the official POG? $299.80 or $301.00. There are two people who have something riding on the price. First my reputation and second the guy who is going to dye his hair blonde if gold stayed above $300.00 for Five consecative days. Betcha he was in my corner.
As for this experiment in calling the POG there are two ways to look at it.
Perception. That is what Joe Sixpack uses to evaluate the market. For him all is fairly well so his investment sharpness has been dulled. Why else would he continue to put large amount of money into the stock market and not invest in PM's.
Now sizing up the market that is a different animal altogether. The amount of information is far greater and researched for truth.

Perception and Sizing Up are almost the same except and I use this example.

When you meet somebody new and he is big. You think this guy is a nice guy. Thats perception.

Then this guy gets angry with you. And you think, can I take this guy or should I leave. That's Sizing Up. You might precieve that if you hang around you might get a whoopin.

So, Do you want to know when Gold goes to $1000.00 an oz.?


BelgianDavid W. Tice and Associates#728794/6/02; 12:20:50

** When central bankers become asset managers **

Gold and the previous (non US) US$ as good as Gold have always been the assets to be managed by CBs under direct order of the oligarchic governments, no ? What difference does it make if "stocks" are directly (Welteke+FED) or indirectly (Interest Rates) managed as asset or asset derivative ? Goldreserves and consequently the respective floating currency's valuations have been managed by CBs for already more than 70 years. We just are allowed to see some more transparancy on how this gigantic interventionism is to evolve. It is nothing more than explaining what is ment by the financial tail, wagging the economic dog ! What is the essential difference in se between the PPT and central bank ?

The European Central Bank (ECB) is making the difference or at least WANTS to make the difference with the management of one particular and very special asset : GOLD !!!
Who cares if between the assets (Gold/currencies) there will be some stocks or apples ? Wich of the present or future assets will remain as for all seasons to come ? All together now : GOOOOOOOLD ! Repeat : Phyyyyysical GOLD !
Stocks are paper contracts, stating virtual ownership of the underlying enterprise. So are Bonds, notes and any other paper contract, derivative or not.
I could appreciate if tomorrow CBs start stockpiling Crude Oil ! Than we talk about an asset worthy to manage.
But it is exactly these two VERY REAL assets (Gold + Oil) that are subject of denigration ! Both can NOT and will NEVER reach zero value ! Japanese IRs rerached 0,01 % level and track the purchasing power of so many currencies as notes or bonds. Real estate and land values are constantly taxed away. Why do the Rotshields have such a treasure on high value antics (and Gold of course) ? No taxes and transferable to the next generations ! Let them (CBs) play and manage as much different paper as they wish. I'll keep my yellow coins under the matrass.

These high profile but minuscule Goldsales by CBs is a lot of sand in people's eyes. I even start to enjoy official announcements (threaths) of some more Goldsales/exchanges/reschufflings (no sarcasm intended)!

YGMEconomic Control & Steps Toward a World Bank...#728804/6/02; 12:36:32

Interesting reading.........(NWO stuff)
USAGOLDBelgian, 49er, All. . . .#728814/6/02; 12:43:01

Bundesbank, Old Bankers' Trust and Deutschbank

I would like to throw a thought into the mix.

In the early 1990s Bankers' Trust made a decision to go from being primarily a commercial bank involved in the kind of business your neighborhood commercial banks does to a global money-center bank replete with wholesale currency dealings, loan repackaging, investment banking, i.e., the works. In the late 1990s stories began to surface that Bankers Trust was having all sorts of internal problems -- much having to do with complex derivatives arrangements. If I recall correctly, Proctor & Gamble at one point filed a suit against Bankers' Trust for fraudulent representation with respect to derivatives' packaging sold P&G. For awhile the details of the suit were suppressed by the courts and I don't know if they ever became public. I lost track of the story after Bankers Trust mergerd with Deutschbank (in 1999 I believe). The fact of the matter is that Bankers' Trust had the reputation on Wall Street of being one of the big risk players in derivatives. This modus operandi usually includes gold loans. I am not certain that Bankers' Trust was inolved in the gold carry trade business but I would not be surprised if we learned that they were deeply involved.

What is interesting about the Bankers' Trust/Deutschbank merger (beyond the on-going strategy of merging an entity that has gotten itself in a trading hole with a stronger, more conservative entity -the Barrick/Homestake merger also fills this mold) is how risk can be transferred across national borders. What was once the lender of last resort problem in the United States is now the lender of last resort problem of Bundesbank. (It would be interesting if someone could find out how this would affect ECB as well should Bundesbank decide to bump the problem downline). And I don't think any of us should lose sight of the fact that the lender of last resort function remains a central bank's most fundamental responsibility. As James Turk most notably documented several years ago, a central bank can print paper money to bail out a failing commercial "debtor" but it cannot print gold to bail out a commercial [gold] "debtor."

Can it be that the responsibility for the Banker's Trust gold loans transferred to Bundesbank via Deutschbank and the merger? My guess is they have and as a result altered the long term German financial establishment's alliance with gold. Deutschbank inherited a problem it didn't really want (or understood it was taking on) and in the process affected German monetary policy. The Welteke gold gaffes follow on that. It seems to me that some gold depositor[s] need[s] reassurances and that's what these statements are all about. Who that depositor might is anyone's guess. If Bundesbank can get in line for WA2, that reassurance carries weight beyond anything simply verbal. Gold lenders understand the supply problems with gold -- if they don't, they should.

There simply is not a lot of gold around in size. Bundesbank cannot make a few discreet phone calls and find 500 tonnes. It's not going to happen. Everyone in the upper echelons of the gold business knows this and I will stick with my original analysis that the British, the Swiss and the German sales (if there are any) are essentially lender of last resort activities resulting from the on-going and structural shortage of hard metal. Germany cannot afford to let Deutschbank go down (as Doody references in the generalized sense). So it may sell unless the German people through one of its political parties stops it. The depositor will be forced to remain patient and hopeful. Welteke's there to provide comfort.

In the future, I think the eurozone will look long and hard at mergers with external banks, particularly British and American banks, to make sure that the lender of last resort responsibilities on gold loans is not dumped on their doorstep.

Hard to believe that Deutschbank made such a costly mistake, but they did. And, once again, its interesting that a simple merger would have such a ponderous effect on German gold policy. One wonders if there hasn't been some behind the scenes quid pro quo involving gold between the U.S. and Germany -- but in my mind the flow would be opposite of what has been contended: From the United States to Germany instead of the opposite.

This is all theory, my friends --an educated guess as to what might be happening behind the scenes. I'll leave you and future events to determine whether or not this scenario holds water.

TownCrierQuestion for Belgian#728824/6/02; 12:43:18

Since you've proven yourself to be quite adept at, shall I say, cutting through the underbrush, I was hoping you might be able to provide your particular brand of insights on this following matter.

You recently commented nicely on the motivations behind BuBa President Welteke's recent comments, and as you know, ECB President Duisenberg offered his own response regarding expectations of (fiscally- socially- economically-(?)) responsible activity from the BuBank with respect to gold. I can grasp that well enough.

My question for you is whether you have any inkling (translation = hunch, notion) of what Mr. Duisenberg may have been driving at when, beyond the jurisdictional element, he answered the equities question with a wink?

As a refresher, here again is his delivery Thursday regarding both the official practicality and official "endorsement" let's call it of Mr. Welteke's suggestion that the BuBank might purchase equities:

-----"Well, the management of both the foreign reserves and the domestic assets of any national central bank falls, beyond certain thresholds, under the guidelines and guidance of the ECB. That is one thing. And to buy equities is, let me put it this way, for many central banks not unusual."----

Your thoughts on the list he likely had in mind?

Thanks for your time.


TownCrierThanks, Belgian#728834/6/02; 12:54:06

It seems that while I was typing my previous question, you were busy giving the lion's share of the answer I was ultimately expecting. Well done! That is, unless you have more you'd like to offer on the matter...


Sierra MadreCavan Man: your statement about History:#728844/6/02; 12:54:30

"History can only be made in the context of preceeding events." - This you said in relation to my "Thoughts for the weekend."

I am puzzled by the connection between your clear, declarative statement, and the things I had to say; which I offered as thoughts, as suggestions to mull over.

"History can only be made in the context of preceeding events": yes, I suppose I can agree. But - there are lots of "buts" - WHAT are we to consider as the pertinent "preceeding events"? How do we select them? What rule do we apply to select the preceeding events? This is the problem of writing history: how to select the meaningful events. No two historians, however well-qualified, will ever write the same "History". Enough books to fill a library have been written on this subject. Herodotus, the Father of History, was hated by others as biased and malignant - Plutarch and Thucydides for example.
So if we want to stick to the "facts" - just what are the "facts"? Some historians even today are punished.

Black Blade writes about the End of Hydrocarbon Man; but, we have a preceeding event that is hardly known at the moment, which may change the outlook drastically: the Longitudinal Waves of the Vacuum which it appears MAY allow the construction of generators of energy in limitless quantities, such generators possibly to be on the market initially, by next year. See

Incidentally, I can't think of an event more dangerous and destabilizing for humanity, that to provide it with unlimited and virtually cost-free energy! Disregard for limits, in any field, always brings with it Nemesis, the punishment of Nature, or of God. This invention may be the death of humanity.

Hoople: thanks for your six guidelines. I agree with you heartily. We don't have to know too much. Just the most significant data suffice (Again, what is "significant"?) Well, we can pick and choose as we like. I like your selection. 99.44% of the content of the WStJ is insignificant, as far the big picture is concerned. "So pure it floats!" Pure fluff.

M3: M3 is a good indicator. Very strictly speaking, prices in general are not - in Austrian economics - mechanically determined by money supply. But as a practical rule, I feel that prices DO follow the path of M3 over the long run. (Here we have Historical insight working together with Economic insight which is of another nature entirely.) I like your parallel between an M3 of 1 trillion, gold at $300, and M3 at 8 trillion, gold at $300. An objective of $2,400/oz is entirely reasonable, in my view.

Thanks for reading!


USAGOLDRandy, Belgian, 49er. . . .#728854/6/02; 13:03:06

The deeper you go into this analysis, the more you realize that physical gold remains the Holy Grail of the gold business -- the objective of all operations and precisely the opposite of what the opposition would have the public believe. Those who buy time, buy time to acquire the metal. That's why all paper representations are threatened on a continuum of risk for the holder the further you move away from the metal itself.

FOA and Another were right.

TownCrierGood summary, MK...#728864/6/02; 13:05:07

Very nice to see it in print. A real treat for our Saturday visitors, to be sure.


Old YellerMore good analysis of the US C/A deficit#7288704/06/02; 13:49:04

The elephant at the cocktail party is finally getting some serious notice.European M&A activity has slowed to a crawl(little wonder in light of massive "good-will" writedowns as a conesquence of buying into bubble valuations)and the Asian tigers are carrying the ball now.

Perhaps bomb ia better word.

Short sighted monetary officials and brain dead politicians;supposedly acting in their peoples' best interest.Best argument yet for buying physical gold and saying NO to destruction of years of hard work and diligent saving in an inevitably valueless currency.

Can't happen in America,those who should know better endlessly bleat.

Another fine mess,the search is ongoing for villians to blame.Hopefully,the diversionary tactics will not work this time.

Cavan Man@Sierra Madre#7288804/06/02; 14:57:48

Pondering your thoughts as always; and, merely stating a truism though perhaps indirectly connecting your dots.


RockgrabberUSA Gold, Thank you so much for this gold trail. #7288904/06/02; 15:30:05

"""In the same way as prices rise against a currency durring inflation, physical gold prices begin to rise against paper gold. Less gold will delivered against contracts untill we end up with totall cash settlement. All the while the physical "Free Gold" market trades at higher and higher currency price. This is what dollar hyper inflation may look like in our modern paper gold markets. AS LONG AS INVESTORS BELIEVE IN PAPER GOLD, THEIR WEALTH WILL BE SLOWLY ABSORBED BY PHYSICAL GOLD BUYERS UNTILL TRADING BREAKS DOWN.""" By our Trail Guide.

I can feel the stomach of paper gold traders feel like they have just swallowed a bucket of ice water when they read that. That was written some time ago as well. Talk about a valuable lesson to learn before it is too late. I would be happy to buy physical gold at double the paper cost, even more. FOAs message has not fallen on deaf ears around these parts!!

Old YellerFWIW,Reg Howe's commentary on questionable Bundesbank/DB gold #7289004/06/02; 15:34:29

Derivative activities from May 2000.Wenteke is squirming in a open and brazen fashion,however,at the moment,central bankers are still above suspicion in the financial skullduggery that envelopes our planet.

It's up to the people in the steet to expose these criminals(I do not use this word lightly),as it is obvious we are only recieving cursory coverage in the mainstream media despite GATA's assertions to the contrary.

Look at how quickly Enron disappeared into the ether when it became clear how these people in postions of power and trust so insidiously work together.

mikalUS troops suffer heavy losses? #7289104/06/02; 15:47:29

Noninterventionism- Embracing this tenet, our founding fathers weren't only concerned with preserving lives, but the quality of life, and for each succeeding generation. The linked story originates from Moscow.
CoBra(too)Usagold, Belgian, Miner et al ... #7289204/06/02; 16:28:13

Just dropped in and skimmed the interesting posts re DB/BT and the potential blunder of landing BT's derivative - possible gold shorts at DB and eventually BuBa's door step.
Makes sense.

And probably makes even more sense by pondering DB's failed trial balloon to take over JPM, which would have re-delivered the gold problem back to the original sender.

Anyway, DB has bought the proverbial cat in the sack with BT and was squarely taking it on the chin, while part of a US/UK problem was neatly exported into the (pro gold?) euro lands.

Again, pure speculation on my part only, though the absolute
silence on euro CB's on any gold issue (remember my repeated queries to Klaus Liebscher the Austrian CB Gov. and a l.t. friend, to no effect) - except Wetelke's pathetic ramblings - would prove that something is very amiss in regard to gold.

... A final thought on the lender of last resort, which after the demise of Bretton Woods should have been the IMF
SDR's. We know seem to grasp that SDR's had a foster child called SDR Certificates, regulating gold equivalents as final barter payments for products necessary to keep up the grand illusion of inherent value in the free floating confetti currencies.

This system is doomed and the potential outcome can be read at the latest Atzteca di Oro at the Cafe - hopefully not the Dark Ages again.

- late night ramblings - cb2

Old YellerLooking for villains,in all the wrong places#7289304/06/02; 16:58:10

It's stock options and cooking the books by unscruplous CEOs,thatwould be today's bad guys,according to the esteemed Mr.Greenspan.

Who is responsible for allowing these charades to be created and continue in an unabated fashion,while the ROW withered away'sir?

Why were they heroes two years ago and villians today?

Where are the profits generated in your productivity boom?

Note the comments of the FASB spokesman,possibly hundreds of billions of off-balance sheet debt that must,at some time,be reconciled on companies' books.

Just another unexpected surprise,that's all.

Black BladeArab Oil Embargo Gains Support#7289404/06/02; 18:25:32

Arab Foreign Ministers Meet


CAIRO, Egypt - Arab foreign ministers gathered here Saturday to discuss ways of increasing their response to Israel's military offensive on the West Bank amid calls from Iraq and Iran to use oil as a weapon. The Arab League ministerial meeting comes after a week of daily protests against Israel and the United States, the like of which the Arab world has rarely seen. Jordanian demonstrators beat up riot police and sent them packing in Amman on Saturday while Bahraini protesters set fire to structures in the U.S. Embassy in Manama.

Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei came out Friday in support of the Iraqi oil proposal. "I suggest, only for one month, as a symbolic gesture, that Arab and Islamic countries switch off oil to all countries who have close relations with Israel," Khamenei said in a Friday prayers sermon in Tehran. However, support for a cutback came from a newspaper in a fifth oil producer, the United Arab Emirates, on Saturday.

"The time has come to stop talking and start action ... Time now to reflect upon the success of the oil embargo of 1973 ... So it is time to use it again. Then, perhaps, the international community will once again listen to the voices of the Arab peoples," said an editorial in the English-language Gulf News.

Black Blade: Support for a new Arab Oil Embargo is picking up steam. Libya could also be expected to give support. There also exists the very real possibility of terrorist acts against the oil industry infrastructure of those producers who do not support an embargo. This Middle East affair is intensifying and spreading throughout the region.

Black BladeLabor Dispute Affecting Oil Exports #7289504/06/02; 18:36:14


An escalating confrontation between the government and workers at one of the world's largest oil companies has started to affect exports from Venezuela — the largest foreign supplier of oil to the United States.

Protesting workers closed two of Venezuela's five major loading terminals Friday, stranding a dozen ships waiting to load cargo, Venezuelan oil officials told Dow Jones Newswires.

Black Blade: Oil workers have called a strike for Tuesday. Another possible restriction of oil supply is in the works.

mikalCorrect link- Afghan story#7289604/06/02; 18:46:08

Please accept my apologies for oversight. Article suggests resistance reminiscent of VietCong. If the US public overwhelmingly approves of this conflict as we are told, why aren't our dead and wounded casualties being honored publicly?
Sierra MadreLike taking candy from children...#7289704/06/02; 20:42:34

Just a couple of weeks before the famous "Washington Agreement" I had a converation with the Managing Director of a venerable PRIVATE Swiss Bank.

I was dumbfounded by the ignorance of this individual in such an important position. Let me tell you, he did not have a clue!

Gold has been expunged from the mind of this man, and I suppose if he is so ignorant, the rest of his colleagues must be in a similar situation. For him gold is through, finished, Kaput, a thing of the past. He said, "The Central Banks don't really WANT any gold any more." Just those words.

The Swiss have many virtues, and I hope they keep them. But what is one to think when coming up with such a character?
I remember Orson Welles' line in "The Third Man": "What have the Swiss contributed to civilization? - The cuckoo clock."

Load up with gold, it's like taking candy from children at this point. It won't be so much longer. See my next post.


Sierra MadreUh-Oh!!#7289804/06/02; 21:01:24

For what it is worth, here is a message received today, from a prominent New Yorker:

King of Jordan has warned Bush he fears for his
life and could be assassinated at any time. President
Mubarek of Egypt believes he could be overthrown imminently and has so warned Bush. The Arabian street is in turmoil.
The situation is extremely fluid.

The CIA thought they had the Middle East under control
and I was assured that there was nothing to worry
about as little as two weeks ago. Now, they are
clearly alarmed.

DEBKA weekly says that 15 dinghies have been
discovered along Israel's shore carrying an
estimated 150 highly trained commandos possibly carrying
weapons of mass destruction and assessed to be working in
teams of three, or fifty teams. The security
breach is almost incomprehensible as this is the most
secure shoreline in the world with the Israelis and American fleets offshore and DEBKA believes that security
codes and technology has been compromised as in the 9-11
attack. In other words, there appears to be inside
help. Someone clearly wants the world turned
upside down.

This whole area could explode into a catastrophe.

Such a catastrophe would clearly wipe out any thought of Central Bank control of anything, and it is
questionable that this amateur hour over at the
Federal Reserve is capable of handling anything of
this magnitude.

DEBKA says that targets such as London and various
ones in the United States are on the highest alerts
and may be struck. This is the DEBKA weekly.

The situation is clearly different from that of
1973 and ten times more dangerous. It is even worse
than the Lebanon-Beirut invasion.

It is important to note again and again that the
international financial situation has never been at greater risk with over 60 trillion of counterparty risk in derivatives, and the international current account
imbalances almost unprecedented in magnitude and
proportion. The current account deficit of the United States alone is approaching 500 billion a
year, or 5% of the Gross Domestic Product, and the
net deficit position is approaching 3 trillion dollar or 30% of the GDP. There was nothing like
this in 1973 when the United States reigned supreme
as the world's greatest creditor and was able to successfully absorb the oil shock at extreme cost.
We had better men to handle it then.

It is questionable whether the international
financial system is resilient enough to handle an oil cutoff of the magnitude of 15 million barrels a day
of 76 million barrels produced to underpin the
world economy, and a collapse of that system would lead to the overthrow of the liberal regimes in the United States, England, Western Europe, Japan, etc. as in Germany in 1929 to 1933 that collapsed over similar current account imbalances. The political ramifications and consequences would be similar.

The Bush crowd, like that Gadarene herd of old, is
rushing like the possessed to a ruin that is almost without precedent since the old Christian monarchies were overthrown by the atheistical forces of international finance that have almost completely corrupted the western world in order to effectuate its submission. Benjamin Disraeli's novel, "Coningsby," tells the true story of the history of our time, and who was behind this.


A worrisome message, indeed.


BelgianDeutsche Bank - Gold - Bundesbank Goldreserves ?#7289904/07/02; 00:18:53

DB has most probably found the needed physical in the South African underground ? Crash the rand and it (the Gold) can be mined (faster). Combine a certain goldmine with the web of holocaust restitutions...? Add DB's introduction of derivatives (warrants) on SA mines (Gold Fields).
To be continued...

HenriUSAGold Msg 72899 Banker's Trust Intrigue#7290004/07/02; 01:21:55

As I recall, at the tim of the BT defection over the pond, BT was a Federal Reserve Bank able to legally trade in gold certificates drawn on US Teasury gold in accordance with the the Federal Reserve Act. I expect they escaped holding a sizable quantity of these notes and that the US Treasury, not DB or the bundesbank is the party that is liable for delivery. This may be the origin of the 'custodial' gold designations. I also recall that those officers defecting to germany with BT drew very large compensations for their role in the coup (or their silence?). One has to beleive some serious monkey business went down here but then Rubin was still Sec of Treasury.

If you search the archives following the announcement of the merger, you may find I commented upon it then but not really knowing of what significance it was...(perhaps none)....just musings.

RobotGuySlingshot#7290104/07/02; 01:46:37

There is an individual in this forum who has made it his priority to pretend he doesn't see what I have posted. He does this by reason of untrust. One thing I would like to convey is that I respect this individual's opinion very much, and that there was never an intentional attempt on my behalf to belittle this individual's opinion. Study previous posts, and you will see that I was the first to jump to this person's defense when a non-substianted post was delivered. The negative post has been deleted, however, the individual I defended's post remains. Do not forget, how feeble my opinion may seem, that I am capable of recognizing the fact that there are individuals in this forum who are very capable of presenting ligitimate ideas and arguments relevant to current discussions.
I participate in this forum because I seek knowledge that I do not posess, and opinions that I haven't considered. How big or how small a person may be, or how many similarities I might share with any individual will not deter me from speaking my opinion. Perhaps I might be banned by lack of interpretation of my intended message, but I would like to have you know that I do not participate in this forum for reasons of slander.
I would like to consider myself to be of above average intelligence as some have indicated to me through results of various tests of modern day science, however, as any truly intelligent person will tell you, I know nothing relatively speaking.
I am a physically/mentally active person, and this forum provides me with a link to others who are similar to myself, and in most cases much more informed.
As I have already stated, I am greatful for your response to my 'futile' quest, and you have managed to gain my respect as a logical straight-forward type individual.
I will look forward to exchanging ideas with you in the future.



PippinElliott Waves - a basic question#7290204/07/02; 04:38:34

Is the Elliott Wave theory applicable to precious metals ?
USAGOLDPippin. . . .#7290304/07/02; 09:03:45

In making my morning visit to this esteemed Hall, I saw your question and can provide something of a response. I am not an expert on Elliot Wave Theory, but I've always been intrigued with it because I too believe it reflects a rythmic pattern not just within the markets but applicable to other aspects of life on this planet -- including human history.

Can EWT be applied to gold?

It can and is -- with varying degrees of success. The entire plausibility of the theory in any given situation can be reduced to where the analyst puts the number "1" on the chart -- all else follows from there. The weakness in the theory is that it cannot readily predict at any given moment whether we have reached a top (or bottom) in an given numerical sequence, therefore the endless debate among proponents of the theory (and the introduction of mathematician Fibonacci to cover the price predicting "hole" in the theory).

For example, Robert Prechter, who I consider to be a brilliant economic and social analyst, has one count on the gold market which projects a bearish thesis. His mentor, British analysts AJ Frost, has a different count which projects us at the start of a long term bull market in gold which could stretch for many, many years. We (GC and I) were curious about Mr. Frost's EWT count some years ago and GC got his address from Mr. Prechter. Unfortunately, we came to find out the Mr. Frost was very ill, but still willing to forward his count. At the time he believed we were in a bottoming phase (long term) and about to go into a new (upward) cycle. We published it in News & Views some years ago and we could probably dig that up if we had to. Prechter sees the bottoming phase still in progress with a major spike down required to culminate the move. He then sees a springboard effect upward over a short period of time vaulting gold into the initial stages of a new bull market. As such, he recommends investors begin acquisition of physical now because the upside is so large and he projects a sharp "V" configuration to the downside.

My own view, and I am far from an expert on the subject, is closer to Frost's than Prechter's. I see the break from mid-1999 to be the initial stages of new, long term 1-2-3-4-5 (abc) with these first rumblings descriptive of the "1" Wave -- what Prechter calls the True-Believer phase. Both the chart and my personal experience confirm this. Being in the gold business for all these years, one thing I can do is identify the type of people buying gold and characterize them (to some degree). Today's buyers are the "True Believers" -- typical of the "1" wave. The trend buyers aren't in the market yet -- except on a limited basis -- and they characterize the "3" Wave -- or the steady, long term uptrend. The "5" wave buyers are herd instinct, madness of crowd types that come into the market at the end and provide sustenance to all the "1"s and "3"s. You don't want to be "5"; always better to be a "3"; even better to be a "1".

By the way, I hear from the good Professor von Braun that Rob't Prechter has just published a brilliant new essay which I hope to read sometime next week. I see the weakness in the RP analysis as not giving enough weight to the importance of the Washington Agreement and subsequent break over the $300 level -- which amounted to the first manifestations of the "1" Wave. As I say, I could be wrong, but that's the way I see it.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.A complete gold education! Order direct and save!#7290404/07/02; 10:29:55

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"Gold will play a critically important role in American investment portfolios in the years to come. This book provides investors a basic education on private gold ownership from one of the nation's top experts." --Rep. Ron Paul, Texas, U.S. House of Representatives

Please Remember: It is your purchase from Centennial Precious Metals / USAGOLD that nourishes these pages.

YGMOff Topic......(Sorry)#7290604/07/02; 12:07:55

The other day someone questioned the reality of Red Mercury in Nukes, I believe. As I cannot remember who asked I'll just post this link....Again sorry for interupting the financial discussion ongoing (as it should be).....YGM

BTW>>I myself am not necessarily convinced of the veracity of this article, but do want answers to many questions, so I continue to read and question endlessly.....Posted links are the key to ongoing knowledge and understanding.....
Got any to share :o)

sector@Pipin The answer to your question...#7290704/07/02; 12:14:58

...flows from the reality of market manipulations.

As in the JPM/Hamanaka/Copper fraud [Case just closed this week], the commodity prices were [for copper] and are [for gold] under the sole control of the manipulator.

It really IS that simple...and also that complex when the supply of physical metal to sell runs dry.

One can examine all the wave theory in the universe and still end up with that reality. The London Gold Pool and many other examples abound.

The US [Or any other central government] does not view gold as wealth, they view un-backed paper as wealth therefore they cannot be lumped in with other gold market participants in a theory of action. This heterogeneous mix of players with different goals makes the Ellioit Wave Theories useless for today's gold market.

The more useful analysis tends toward viewing the government's actions in the context of a pending exhaustion of metal to sell.

The consequences of this exhaustion is a 10X devaluation as in 1971. So as we edge closer to the denouement, government actions should become more frenetic [As in the Jan FOMC statements about "...buying gold mines...any asset"], extreme [As in the long bond assassination] and predictable [as in Paul O’Neill's "…what recession? Comment].

BelgianDeutsche Bank (DB) derivatives and Bundesbank Gold reserves ? #7290804/07/02; 12:14:59

DB is the largest bank in the world by assets but trading barely over bookvalue. (EMU/US banks = 2,3/3,7 times bookvalue). This makes DB somewhat special not in the least that it is a possible take over target (?).
DB = Germany Incorporated as a very large Shareholder of German quoted stocks (Holding).

If (!) DB is in the need of Physical Gold to protect/consolidate its "unknown" derivative (DB) will search for Physical Gold and find it ! Be it in some more minehedging on top of the 3.000 tonnes existing...or private Gold holders... or the Bundesbank 3.500 tonnes of reserves !
We don't have the slightiest clue on the *nature* and lifetime (volume-?) of the derivatives. Therefore we can't project/guess the amount of Physical needed and for how long and at what POG-level. All speculations are are indeed theory.

ECB Gold and EMU-members National Gold are different in nature and this must still have some space for discussion.
Is all this Physical Reserve Gold equal to euro-currency Gold-reserve ? How much of these total Gold Reserves can be used (consumed) for National emergencies or applications ?

Bottomline : The more Physical reserve that leaves the vaults...the higher POG/Valuation shall be / must be , once EMU will use Gold-Reserves for dollar-loss COMPENSATION !

At present the Japanese are the only savers in need and possibility (!) to accumulate (unexpectedly) more Physical than the gold-derivative architects (hum) ever could have expected. Kind of imponderabile that causes accidents.

So far no other holders of dollar/euro confetti felt the urge to start buying/accumulating abnormal/disturbing volumes of Physical Gold. And as long as POG doesn't give a signal (EW II), all is fine in LALA-Land(s).
No POG rise, no US$ US$ decline, no POG rise !

No default possible for DB or any Japanse or other banks !
The perfect managed world !? Only an infinitesimal minority has enough perception of the coming storm(s) to justify buying Gold coins at 300$ and holding them for revaluation at 3.000$ or 30.000$ !

If Welteke and or DB don't find the necessary Physical in this falsified goldmarket anymore...they will find another way of making the whole circus keeping afloat ! Selective and contained defaults and genial inventivity in all kinds of constructions is on its highs in this sub-culture.
Creative wizards can make derivatives appear and disappear on books and places.

Once this culture (?) hits the iceberg...the spotlights flash full power on the yellow and make it shine brightly.
Indiscriminately of how much tonnes of Physical remain in wich vault. Did we ever had full exposure or any kind of transparancy on the London Gold Pool affair ? No !
Today, Gold's transparancy is as dark as the new war-reporting. No pictures or pré-fabricated (misleading) pictures and comments !

The only way of prooving your belief in Gold's future is by accumulating coin after coin. Give this 21 th century Gold Pool a hard time by Exchanging your honest deserved confetti for the most precious tangible ever. Participate in the paper-sub-culture at your peril. And don't count on other Japanese to exchange savings for Gold. The Argentinians had put their faith into the US$ and Honest Banks ! They didn't had the chance to scramble for Gold.
How many other people have that same faith and will be excluded from the life saving boat ? Talker Welteke and other more silent central bankers, know the value of Gold as a monetary reserve and realize very well that we will never know how much of it we will need, shortly !
Paper punters (banks) will be saved....with more of that same paper they produced and at worst with an absolute minimum of monetary reserve Gold. Plunder uncertain underground gold fist !

SiochainGoldman & Morgan Stanley led Friday's assault (plus Rubin's new ally)#7290904/07/02; 12:16:30

From Cafe

Gold was fixed in the AM in London at $300.80, followed by a PM Fix of $301. Demand was strong as evidenced by a quick pop in the price during the early New York trading session. Right after the pairing up of buyers and sellers at the PM Fix was finished, gold was trashed by Goldman Sachs, followed by a pelting from fired-up "Hannibal Cannibal" Morgan Stanley.

Funds were early buyers, except for one big fund that was selling above $300, basis April. Goldman and Morgan Stanley got shorter and shorter along with the locals as the Comex trading day went on. They tried to get the fund seller to blow out below $300, basis April, to precipitate stops. But their effort failed, as he would not sell down. Meanwhile, strong physical buying showed up on the gold price break from dealers. Near the close it became apparent that the orchestrated Gold Cartel ploy to bash the market would fail, so the pressing shorts covered, which caused the late run-up.

For the second day in a row, gold closed $2 off its lows. I cannot recall that happening before and gives credence to the notion that the cabal is having great difficulty in their efforts to bury gold again.

(Note to Trapper....I am staying with Schwab because their is no proof whether the shorting was for their account or clients...though as I mentioned,,,it is important that we all be sure that brokers cannot use our shares for can call your broker to verify about your shares...and if they use for shorting,,,get it changed.

I will continue to post those banks/brokers etc that are actively working each day to take down gold...and would hope that any readers will consider moving their accounts or writing )

One other "interesting" tidbit:

Reuters Securities
Deutsche Bank hires Rubin as energy credit analyst

NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a unit of Deutsche Bank AG (DBKGn.DE), said on Friday it has hired Robert Rubin from Goldman Sachs & Co. (GS - news) as a senior investment-grade credit analyst covering the electric utility and energy sectors. Rubin had been responsible at Goldman Sachs for credit research in the utility, power and natural gas sectors, Deutsche Bank said. Previously, he was a credit analyst at Bear Stearns & Co., it said. Rubin will report to Marion Boucher-Soper, Deutsche Bank's head of U.S. investment-grade credit research.

PippinUSAGOLD - Sector - Elliott Waves#7291004/07/02; 12:32:45

I want to thank you both for having taken the time and made the effort to give me an answer.

Usagold: I obviously don't need Elliott Waves to know that I have to continue buying gold :-) but I find the subject fascinating and intellectually stimulating indeed ...although the gold trail is even more challenging for the newbie.

Sector: I understand. I wondered about the same question concerning the stock market and the impact of automatic trades generation by computers (Pension Funds and Mutual Funds particularly): they probably don't reflect the average investor's psychology either, so I don't know how they fit in the Elliott Waves system.

I believe it was in this forum that I read something about Kondratieff's cycles and waves. Any relationship with the Elliott waves, and any interest as far as gold is concerned?

Siochain@YGM#7291104/07/02; 13:22:01

I do not consider it off topic....but very pertinent.

Though I do not know much on the subject,,,I'd rather have info to check out ....both what may be happening and possible preparation

There is much going on that we are not hearing bothers me that more info is often found in non-USA news while our mainstream media keeping mum and non questioning

Apparently the rule of the day is to keep the people in the dark and happy...doesn't sound like a republic to me!

Siochain@Sierra Madre#7291204/07/02; 13:32:33

Actually Debka had predicted that the King of Jordan and the President of Egypt would not attend the Arab Conference long before it was announced that they would not go ....Debka's reason was that credible details of assassinations had been picked up and taken quite seriously.
BelgianTony Blair Speech in the lone star state !#7291304/07/02; 14:22:27


******** OIL ******

For the rest I don't dare to express my opinion on the decodations of the speech !

uponroofWhat happens to POG when US soldiers invade Iraq?#7291404/07/02; 15:10:53

Just checking in.

Interesting middle east events underway.

The diminishing of the Israeli/Palestinian crisis through Bush/Blair politicizing is going to have a direct affect on POG.

First POG will retreat as those tensions ease. We'll probably see that this week. Perhaps even testing the low 290's.

This crisis 'easing', real or perceived, will signal the Bush administration to act quickly on another front. That being to renew the war on terrorism inside of Iraq....

after which POG will easily break the 307, and then 330 cielings.


TownCrierA good reason for gold ownership#7291504/07/02; 15:32:18

------Many foreign leaders, including U.S. allies, worry about Bush's intentions. Chinese President Jiang Zemin, in remarks published Sunday, urged the United States to refrain from military action against Iraq. "International disputes cannot be solved by force," Jiang said.---------

The fate of the dollar -- perhaps moreso than any other single national currency -- rests in the global hands of "the market", and China is among those whose decisions to hold or to sell could "influence" the matter in no small way. A point of leverage for solving disputes without force, I'd say.


Siochain@YGM#7291804/07/02; 16:07:07

I think one of the tests as to whether Sadam has those terrible weapons will be the outcome of the British talks...I find it hard to believe that if the USA has convincing proof of these new bombs in Iraqi Hands or placed in the US and elsewhere in the world that Blair would not support FAST removal...and that other European nations wouldn't support ...even if reluctantly
goldquestAh, Yes,#7291904/07/02; 16:18:43

I used to enjoy visiting this site when it was still a gold forum!
Leighgoldquest#7292004/07/02; 16:30:10

If you go back a ways in the archives and the Hall of Fame, you'll find that this has always been a gold forum with oil overtones. Read Aristotle's series on Gold and Oil, or some of Another's old posts. For a long time, though, oil and the Middle East weren't in the news as they are today.
RobotGuyHmmmm, uh sorry folks.#7292104/07/02; 16:30:36

Mental note to self, do not attempt to participate in an intellectual forum while heavily influenced by barley/malt nectars.
If there were an option to delete one's own post, I would have wisely exercised this option in a moment.
If I could figure out exactly what I was trying to say, I would translate it for you.

Please pay no attention to my previous post.


Siochain@Robot Guy#7292204/07/02; 16:40:52

Hey...after doing some of the catch up reading and research on the net today...I think I need some of the barley!!!

Glad I've got gold too!!

goldquest@Leigh#7292304/07/02; 16:45:04

I stand corrected. I was just basing my thoughts on the title that proceeds the latest messages, "WELCOME TO TODAY"S GOLD DISCUSSION!" My apologies.
YGMMore fuel on the fires of protest...#7292404/07/02; 16:50:01,10846,177039,00.html

One can only wonder what the next week holds.... events to my mind "ARE" the singlemost important factor affecting Gold/PM prices. Therefore it stands to reason talk of same is not detracting from Gold but adding to insight and reasons for owning same. One big difference between here and over-there is lack of censorship. Civility and in the case of off topic comments, then brevity is or should be respected..IMHO


goldquestcorrection message #72923#7292504/07/02; 16:54:44

make that precedes.
slingshotRobotGuy#7292604/07/02; 17:36:27

Ah, The Nectar of the Gods.

Hang in there RobotGuy for it may be a long trip to the End of the Rainbow. :o)

PrivateerPrivateer copyright infringement#7292704/07/02; 17:42:37

Siochain (04/07/02; 16:00:21MT - msg#: 72917)

Your entire message - and the previous one - is lifted verbatim from the latest (April 7 - Number 447) issue of The Privateer. You have quoted the first three pages in their entirety.

Any Privateer subscriber reading your posts can veryify this with the latest issue, which was emailed yesterday.

You have trampled all over my COPYRIGHT - which is stated right on the newsletter, you have also done so with woefully inadequate attribution.

MK, having been given the opportunity to include some of my material on your site, I know you for an honourable individual. I would appreciate it if you would pull Sochain's two postings, as they are in blatant copyright violation.

Siochain@Privateer#7292804/07/02; 17:52:09

I sincerly apologized..I believe I did refernce from Privateer at the begiining of the first post and then wrote and further...I thought the paragraphs/analysis were of such importance that they needed to be shared...again my apologies
USAGOLDPrivateer. . . .#7292904/07/02; 18:08:33

I wish you well my swashbuckling friend. I know many appreciate your analysis. We do not need freebies here. Siochain has posted the appropriate apology and the posts are gone as I know Siochain would have it. So, can we get you to post something of interest to the Table that might interest us all? Please attach a link back to your site -- on the house. MK
PrivateerFrom The Privateer to USAGold and Soichain#7293004/07/02; 18:18:01

Thank you MK, and thanks for the opportunity to post my link

Siochain, I do appreciate your evaluation of my analysis. I know that there is a great tendency, especially amongst people who take ideas seriously, to want "everybody" to read stuff they deem worthwhile. I do NOT think you had any other reason for posting my material. Your apology is accepted.

Cavan ManPrivateer,USAGOLD,Siochain#7293104/07/02; 18:35:21

Thank you all. I am reminded to renew my subscription.
Cavan ManIraq: end game?#7293204/07/02; 19:12:36

Despite MP and Brit Military "unease"....

Blair backs military action to topple Saddam

British Prime Minister Mr Tony Blair tonight risked a furious row with a significant element in his own Labour Party by threatening military action to topple Iraqi president Saddam Hussein's "brutal" regime.

Mr Blair pledged there would be no "precipitive action" but delivered a blunt warning to Saddam that he had to allow weapons inspectors back into his country "any time, any place that the international community demands".

The British Prime Minister's toughest talk yet on Iraq came in a speech at the George Bush Senior Presidential Library in College Station, Texas, after two days of talks with the present president, George W Bush.

Mr Blair said: "We must be prepared to act where terrorism or weapons of mass destruction threaten us.

"The fight against international terrorism is right. We should pursue it vigorously, not just in Afghanistan but elsewhere ... Since September 11 the action has been considerable, in many countries, but there should be no let up.

"If necessary the action should be military and again, if necessary and justified, it should involve regime change."

In recent weeks nearly 150 backbench MPs, most of them Labour and several of them former government ministers, have signed a Commons early day motion expressing "deep unease" at Britain's potential involvement in any military action against Iraq.

Tonight one of the EDM's signatories, former Labour minister Ms Glenda Jackson, branded Mr Blair's comments "irresponsible".

Ms Jackson said: "I think it is very irresponsible to be upping the rhetoric with regard to any possible action on Iraq without the relevant evidence that Saddam is engaged in the creation of weapons of mass destruction and has the ability to deliver them.

"Until that potential has been verified, the international community should be concentrating on what is already happening in the Middle East."

In his speech, Mr Blair said the international community could not intervene in all cases "but where countries are engaged in the terror or weapons of mass destruction business, we should not shirk from confronting them".

Mr Blair said he hoped Syria, Iran and North Korea could be persuaded to reform.

But he went on: "As for Iraq, I know some fear precipitive action. They needn't. We will proceed, as we did after September 11th, in a calm, measured, sensible but firm way.

"But leaving Iraq to develop weapons of mass destruction in flagrant breach of no less than nine separate United Nations Security Council resolutions, refusing still to allow weapons inspectors back to do their work properly, is not an option.

The regime of Saddam is detestable, brutal, repressive, political opponents routinely tortured and executed.

"It is a regime without a qualm in sacrificing the lives of its citizens to preserve itself, or starting wars with neighbouring states and it has used chemical weapons against its own people.

"The moment for decision on how to act is not yet with us. But to allow weapons of mass destruction to be developed by a state like Iraq without let or hindrance would be grossly to ignore the lesson of September 11 and we will not do it.

"The message to Saddam is clear: he has to let the inspectors back in, anyone, any time, any place, that the international community demands."


© The Irish Times/

CanuckSilver Bugs#7293304/07/02; 19:55:54

As I mentioned last week I am reading a great book about the silver bull run of Oct. 1979 - Mar. 1980. I am nearly finished and will probably re-read importants sections thereafter.

This is what I have picked up so far:

Although unreal amounts of money are bet whether silver will be X or Y in a given month, the 'bet' is simply that; the winner takes the losers money. It is rare that silver changes hands, in fact less than 2 or 3% of the time. As at the 'track' (as ORO pointed out) vast sums of money are placed on various horses (ie: their time to run the race) There is no interest in the horse, the horse owner, the track itself or for anything involving the track; the winner takes the losers money.

Perhaps if horse races were being outlawed there might be a vested interest in purchasing the horse?

If the commodities betting arena (ie Comex) is betting heavy on the price to drop it HAS INFLUENCE on the price of the real thing to drop; and conversely, likewise. Should one appreciate the 'paper' price, definitely but the betting price (ie of silver) is not the price of (physical) silver.

During the fall of '79 it appeared that several physical longs were going to suddenly 'take delivery' and force a 'squeeze'. If the longs had intention to hold their position the price would skyrocket and the shorts would be trapped. The rule makers changed the rules (apparently often) so that the physical trap could not be set. It was very disconcerting for COMEX that the longs would take delivery. This apparently was the key to the squeeze. I feel it paramount to mention that the seizing of physical was the setup. I also feel it important to mention that as paper longs came to play, endless paper shorts appeared to squash any trend. As silver rose the weak shorts went bankrupt leaving only a handful of shorts to battle only a handful of longs.

Comex changed the rules in the favor of the shorts repeatedly to end the bleeding. The paper markets almost lost 'connection' to the physical price. This has been mentioned numerous times on this forum, the paper/physical disconnect.

Notice to 'take delivery' played a vital role in 79/80, it may again as we see the quantity of shorts narrow to any a handful. Thanks to Mr. Butler for continuing reports.

I read on...............

CanuckWhat?#7293404/07/02; 20:02:21

"Ms Jackson said: "I think it is very irresponsible to be upping the rhetoric with regard to any possible action on Iraq without the relevant evidence that Saddam is engaged in the creation of weapons of mass destruction and has the ability to deliver them."

It is rumoured that Ms. Jackson has no opinion of the fact that the Iraqi leader pays people to strap dynamite and bombs around their waists and blow up civilians in restaurants.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")Just a ramble before the Rumble#7293504/07/02; 20:31:38

The morass of the paper gold pushers is not to be taken seriously, friends in gold! It is as simple as this to me. I walked into the seafood shop and wanted to buy a dozen crabs. There were some live ones in a bucket in the window. The man says "Its only a dollar extra to have them steamed". I know they sell old dead cooked re-steamed crabs after they do the switcheroo behind the backcounter and not wanting to die prematurely, I said "No thankyou I want the real live ones. I could hear him curse under his breath as he picked up the dozen wigglers. He probably was selling crabs that died all day long to dummies who bought "steamed crabs". It's no different with gold. The "live gold" market RULES and the paper dead-gold market WILL GET TRASHED in the process of time. What fool is going to part with physical gold at the dead gold price? Well we just have a few too many live crabs in the window. Once physical delivery orders back up and can't be filled, it will start a bidding "premium" war. "yes I can fill your order but the premium has increased". This will happen all over. Gold cannot sell for 312 "physical" in India and for 299 "paper"in New York at the with half a day apart. BIFURCATION will occur and the futures contracts redeamed in dollars will be trashed with a falling dollar. Like bailing out your boat as it goes over the falls. Dual markets occur once new supplies cannot be secured for sales. We can have peace in the mideast, gold will still rise. When have the Japanese ever parted with things real. They are an old world mentality. Gold buryers, all of them. We have nothing to fear the Japanese housewives are here. Joe sixpack is one day going to one day roll out of bed and want to buy an ounce of gold. It's like the fear of impotence. I GOT NO GOLD...........bummer dewd......gotta go get some. Pronto. So it's 1849 all over at your corner coin store getting ripped of with excessive premiums. Lemmings a leapin. Like volume dries up before the breakout. What no one has everyone will want.

Britian--which way did it go, euro or buck? They physically have to join the euro but their assets are in America. So if the dollar falls they loose. If they don't integrate with the EU they stagnate and become a swamp. Expect some eloquent double talk while royalty rigs their yachts for New Zealand.

Japan--with "the mob" instead of the SEC, senile reformers who never figured out that they could have become the Switzerland of Asia back when they had strong yen. Now it's a whitewashed basket case.

China--bonds for take down those hotels on New York, Tenessee, and St. James Avenue and I'll let you pass since you landed on my hotel on Boardwalk.

Mideast Peas Process--They call for a ceasefire because its difficult to prepare sand bags with snipers active. It gives them time to dig in, finish some concrete, string up some razor wire, mourn for the dead, father to son chats, etc. Have to brief the troops on all the new lands they now own.

Price of Oil--Duke,duke,duke...duke of Earl...duke,duke....nothing can stop.....the Duke of Earl. The drainplug of the American Empire. No, don't touch that dial. TXCO...look at the pattern....whiskey on steriods. Hold your horses because that's what we're all going to be driving if we mess with Iraq. They'll never nuke us. They can nuke the oilfields and let us eat cake. Like a complicated chess game during an earthquake. MADD---mutually assured "Daddy we just want to move in with you".

The book you can read to heed..."The Great Reckoning" by James Dale Davidson and Lord Rees Mog. A Classic you gotta have it. If you never read it you just aren't scared enough. 3 inches thick and too real to enjoy. Macroeconomic theory in a non-linear world of spoof economic policy voodoo.

I love my country too so don't be scorning this above like I don't bleed red, white, and a Hue of blue. I'm a realist. Those not saying truth are supressing it. Dig your shelter and pray it won't be your grave. The priests bear rule by their own means and my people love to have it so and what will ye do in the end thereof. Two bit superficial plastic church religion, where everyone pays and nobody prays.. thats why fiat will fail. The Almighty isn't getting "good vibes" from the lower 48. The house of cards is all held together with the His glue. When it's to come down, it's coming down.

mikalAs financial news zeroes in on scandal and dissappointment, the world economies future is darkened, at times shrouded from view by stories such as this: future #7293604/07/02; 20:39:05

MONDAY, APRIL 08, 2002
THE TIMES OF INDIA Israel needs three more weeks to finish operation
AFP[ SUNDAY, APRIL 07, 20028:39:55 PM ]
JERUSALEM: The Israeli army needs around three more weeks to complete its military sweep of Palestinian towns and cities in the West Bank, chief of staff General Shaul Mofaz told parliament on Sunday.
"We need at least four weeks from the beginning of the operation. Eight weeks would be much better for the second step," said Mofaz, who sent in his tanks and troops to Ramallah on March 27 before re-occupying most other West Bank towns.
He did not specify what the second step might be, but said the political leadership was examining the situation. "After that we'll withdraw but we will deploy our forces in a different way to before," he said.
Operation Defensive Wall, as Israel calls its invasion of Palestinian self-rule towns, has been underway for 10 days, plunging the West Bank into frenzied fighting and sending shockwaves through the link for more

sectorBay Area Housing Inflation...In a Recession?...It Seems So...Sounding Like the Late 70's Every Day#7293704/07/02; 20:52:58

How High Can Home Costs Go?
California's castles in the air defy the law of gravity

Louis Freedberg, Insight Senior Writer Sunday, April 7, 2002

When it comes to the Bay Area housing market, it's as if the dot-com collapse and the other economic setbacks of the past two years never happened.

As traffic eased up on Bay Area highways because there were fewer commuters traveling to work, housing prices were supposed to ease up too.

But we're right back to the familiar rituals of mobbed open houses, competing offers and houses selling for way above the asking price. "After all the economic upheaval of the past few months, I never expected it to be this crazy," said Norma Sayage, the owner-broker of Realty Executives in Millbrae.

In fact, she added, it's as crazy as it was a year and a half ago. The competition these days is not only for single family homes, but for multi-unit buildings, where multiple offers have become the norm. What on Earth is going on?

By conventional economic rules, the Bay Area's unemployment rates should have had a dampening effect on the housing market. "If people are hurting for jobs, they shouldn't be jumping over themselves to get a home," said Sayage.

But people are continuing to jump, lured by low interest rates and fears of investing in anything they can't see (like hidden partnerships or inexplicable derivatives).

Housing prices in the Bay Area did go down, briefly. In February, the last month for which figures are available, they declined by 2 percent from a year ago.

Big deal.

The median cost of a Bay Area house is still $373,000, down from $381,000 a year ago. Housing prices dropped 14 percent in San Mateo County, the biggest decrease of any Bay Area county. But they're still far above what most people can reasonably afford. In San Francisco, the median price is $504,000; in Burlingame, it's $782,000, and in Tiburon, a cool $1.4 million. In Contra Costa, Solano and Napa counties, home prices increased by 5 percent or more over the

Sierra MadreBlair, you're one tough hombre...#7293804/07/02; 21:01:09

Yeah, sure, real tough guy...

But what we shall NEVER EVER hear you say is:

"The message to Sharon is clear: he has to let the inspectors back in, anyone, any time, any place, that the international community demands."

Because you know very well who can whup your....



Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")Upside resistance levels: The Shadows Knows#7293904/07/02; 21:05:56

If the POG breaks 320 and holds for a month, then it begins a derivatives short covering meltdown. What would the Cabal do in such a scenario? Simple, it's a replacement of shorting attack at a new higher level. "We can't hold it below 300 so we'll move to 350 and attack it from there." That is what I think it will do. And they will finance the merger mania of hedged after unhedged producers to get their gold sold forward.

But....Once the Chinese see the profits the Japanese made buying gold....Then the Koreans will be choking on their kimchee not owning enough gold.....full scale buying frenzy in the ricelunds.

timbervisionFrom FOA#7294004/07/02; 21:24:09

"A simple person can control his controllers by staying out of debt and owning a wealth no government can dictate the value of: Gold Bullion!"

FOA in his posts describes how there will not be a deflationary depression rather an inflationary one. And in his 10/25/01 #125 post he asks the question "So what does this have to do with Real estate?". After reading what he had to say I wasn't clear how one might handle their real estate investments in preparation for this coming inflationary spiral. Because FOA recommends we get out of debt, is this necessary, provided one locks in a multi-year fixed interest rate. The debt could then be paid off with inflated dollars. Even if one couldn't get a long term (low relative to the rising inflationary rates) fixed rate of interest, say on a credit card balance, would it still not be better now to use any spare cash to buy gold instead of paying off debt. Since gold is set to rise quickly and then inflate with inflation wouldn't one be better off buying gold vs. paying off debt?

Any thoughts from anyone would be appreciated.

Also does FOA's inflationary argument apply equally to other currencies, for example the Canadian dollar?

darkhorse@Timbervision#7294104/07/02; 22:02:28

There's quite a few big IF's to your questions. You're asking "...would it still not be better now to use any spare cash to buy gold instead of paying off debt. Since gold is set to rise quickly and then inflate with inflation wouldn't one be better off buying gold vs. paying off debt?" Well, maybe so...

IF you and FOA are right about "...there will not be a deflationary depression rather an inflationary one." and "The debt could then be paid off with inflated dollars." Inflated dollars (as long as you've still got your income) would go further towards more "old" debt, but if deflationary times come after you've run up all that debt you're in serious trouble (still assuming you've got your job).

IF you're right that gold would go up, fast. If it doesn't go up as much/as fast as you figured, you may get caught that way also.

Let's compare it with the idiots, uh, investors that took out a second mortgage and max'd out their credit cards to get more cash to invest in the tech mania. I'm sure they were thinking along the same lines as you are asking, but it most definitely didn't go the way they thought it would. How do you think those people are sleeping these days (nights)? IMHO, better to accumulate what you can, when you can without going further into debt. Just basic ideas, I'm sure you can get a better answer from quite a few people here. A wise man always seeks good counsel.

TownCrierGuilty or not, there will be a growing taint to build upon that of A.Andersen and Enron#7294204/07/02; 22:47:26

Goldman Sachs falls under scrutiny

NEW YORK (Reuters) - An investigation by U.S. regulators into Treasury bond trading at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. could break new legal ground if it leads to the first-ever charges against a Wall Street firm for insider trading of U.S. government securities.

...The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has asked Goldman for information about its dealings in 30-year bonds on the morning of Oct. 31, 2001, when the Treasury triggered an explosive bond rally by announcing it would suspend sales of the one-time benchmark issue.

Goldman Chief Executive Henry Paulson told his firm's shareholders on Friday that a private consultant who was in the Treasury press room on Oct. 31 called the firm with early news that the government would suspend future sales of 30-year bonds.
-------(click URL for more)--------

Where can you turn when all on Wall Street appears tainted?

Gold remains unstained, shining brightly as a beacon of unassailable integrity and wealth. Call Centennial and get your order in the pipeline.


timbervisiondarkhorse#7294304/07/02; 23:27:18

Thanks for your reply. I appreciate your thoughts and understand exactly what you mean by the "IF's". I sold my house recently and now rent, and used the proceeds to pay off my mortgage, some debt, and buy gold. My remaining debt is relatively manageable. Partly what led me to ask the question is that I've been suggesting to some people to get out of debt and get into gold and one friend has sold his 5 condo rental properties. Until I reread FOA's point about inflation not deflation, I'd been thinking that the housing bubble was the next to go, and thus a major deflation in housing was pending. I wrote my question partly from worry that my suggestions might not necessarily have been the best or at least critically necessary.

Thanks again. "Just basic ideas" can't go too wrong.

Golden BearTownCrier (msg#: 72942) #729444/8/02; 03:55:32

Greetings TC,

your post intrigued me, having earlier read Siochain's msg#: 72909. Rubin is renowned as a shrewd trader, and I'm wondering whether he has just established himself a lifeboat to jump the Titanic, oops Goldman ship if/when they are taken to trial...


Black BladeOil Embargo Is On!#729454/8/02; 04:39:55

Just coming over the wires - Iraq suspends oil exports for 30 days or until Israel withdraws from West Bank. Iran is expected to follow with similar sanctions and Venezuelan strike at petroleum production facilities set for Tuesday.

Rocket attacks along the Lebanon and Israel border are intensifying as this second front opens up. Gun battles in West Bank cities Jenin and Nablus are intensifying. Jordan king expresses concern that stability in Jordan is threatened and riots break out in Rabat, Morrocco. Assassination attempt on government ministers in Afghanistan kills bystanders. The Middle East looks to get rocked.

Oil prices are rising fast just jumped over $27.00/bbl. Meanwhile Gold is comatose at $299/oz. We live in "Interesting Times".

Golden BearBreaking News!#729464/8/02; 04:41:12

Report from CNN TV:

Saddam Hussein has stopped all oil exports for period of 30 days - to punish (in his words) the Zionists and the Americans... the events of the 70's loom larger, hmmm.

Golden Bear(No Subject)#729474/8/02; 04:51:05

Nice to see you manning the fort as always BB. Currently looking for a live spot crude chart.


Black BladeEurope Awash In Red#729484/8/02; 05:07:31

Euro markets are solidly in the red and sinking more as the POO rises on new "Oil Embargo". On CNBC Jim Cramer is pleading with people to sell their oil stocks. Hmmm...

- Black Blade

Black BladePetroleum (Oil, Distillates and Natural Gas) Higher, Market Futures Lower, PM's Comatose#729494/8/02; 05:13:51

Petroleum prices are rising, market futures are sharply lower from a few minutes ago, and PMs are slowing recovering. Could be an "Interesting" day on Wall Street. Trading volumes have been sharply lower on the NY exchanges for the last several weeks and will likely continue to be light as more earnings warnings and lowered "guidance" is revealed.

- Black Blade

The Invisible HandBBC: Tit for Tat - Saddam vs Blair#729504/8/02; 05:20:09

Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein has announced that his country will stop all its oil exports for the next month.
In a televised address, Saddam said Baghdad would decide its next move after 30 days or when Israel withdrew unconditionally from the Palestinian territories.
Senior leaders had decided "in the name of the people of Iraq ... to stop exporting oil totally as of this afternoon through pipelines flowing to Turkish ports and the south for 30 days" unless Israel withdrew, he said.
Earlier, the Iraqi leader responded defiantly to calls for some future military action against Baghdad by Washington and London.
This followed direct warnings by British Prime Minister Tony Blair that action would be taken if Iraq failed to let United Nations weapons inspectors back into the country without conditions.
How can the invader of Wales and Scotland (and England)oppose Saddam's invasion of Kuwait? (And what did the ancestors of W do with the Indians?) So why can Saddam not be allowed to develop weapons of mass destruction?

Black BladeOil Rises as Venezuela, Mideast Raise Supply Fears#729514/8/02; 05:24:32


SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices recouped pre-weekend losses on Monday as a strike by oil workers in Venezuela and intensifying violence in the Middle East rekindled concerns over security of crude supplies.

Black Blade: Add to this Iraqi "Oil Embargo". CNBC Trolls said that Iraqi oil is "insignificant", and that oil will come from Mexico and Venezuela. I hate to burst their bubble but Iraq supplies about 10% of US imported oil and Venezuela may not be too reliable, as far as Mexico is concerned, they don't have much wiggle-room in oil production these days. Don't count on Russia to supply extra oil as they haven't cut production in spite of agreements with OPEC. If Iran joins Iraq as threatened, then will see supply problems develop.

Black BladeEurostocks Slip Further on Iraq Action#729524/8/02; 05:32:40


LONDON (Reuters) - European stocks extended their losses at midsession on Monday after Iraq suspended oil exports, a move that sent oil shares higher on the back of soaring crude prices.

Black Blade: Euro stocks are fading fast. Meanwhile in the ME, Israeli troops set fire to Christian shrine (Church of the Nativity) and shoot Palestinian worker trying to put out flames. The situation in the ME is getting worse – not better.

Black BladeVenezuela President Fires Oil Execs#729534/8/02; 05:41:01

Venezuela's President Fires Seven State Oil Execs; Businesses, Unions Gear for Second Strike


CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- President Hugo Chavez dismissed seven dissident oil executives, moving to crush a revolt against the leadership of Venezuela's state oil monopoly that had threatened the production of one of the United States' top crude suppliers.

Chavez also announced Sunday that he had forced the retirement of 12 other employees at Petroleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, and warned there would be more firings if the monthlong protest continued. But rebellious workers -- who are upset by recent government appointments to top company posts they say were political -- ignored his threats, staging a rowdy protest at the company's Caracas headquarters.

Black Blade: The Marxist "El Presidente" may have bitten off more than he can chew. I doubt that he will have enough support in the military to force the workers back on the job. It looks like a major US supplier may not be bringing in the crude. Tough times ahead for the US economy? Maybe so.

Golden BearOil and it's link to 9/11 - real streaming video#729544/8/02; 06:06:26

Discusses the geopolitical implications of oil in the past, present and future. Essential viewing.
miner49ertimbervision @ 72940#729554/8/02; 06:57:34

Greetings, Sir timbervision -

Let me to reiterate another concept forwarded by Another, FOA, and echoed here by others. Buy gold as your understanding allows.

In other words, don't be moved by fear or greed. Typically people never feel they've accumulated enough. They are always afraid the train is leaving the station, and they're not ready to go yet. Or, let's face it, we don't like to admit it publicly, but we all have done the math ("hmmm... let's see $300 oz --> $30,000... wow...! Say, what about $50,000???).

If fear or greed drive an individual, it is to these that the individual has become enslaved. Better to be enslaved by your own rational understanding, rather than emotion. Your understanding can always be improved. Emotion can be just as intense for the fool, as well as the sage, and is thus a poor guide for decision making.

The purpose of owning gold, is not an end in itself. Remember, it is a STORE of wealth. It represents the savings of the excess earned from your own productive efforts. Ultimately, you or your forebears will spend it. Hopefully, prudently. In spending it, it is hoped that what they get in return fairly represents the toil and sweat you expended today to obtain it. By saving gold you attempt to store this potential wealth as best as possible in something that gives you maximum freedom from the whims of our "controllers," and likewise best represents the future value of these productive efforts engaged today, anywhere, and at anytime.

What is unique about today, is what FOA calls a "political gift" for those who have eyes to see it. Gold, for all the reasons this forum discusses, is artificially way, way under its true price, if it were let free from the leash of official systemic management. This gives the added punch of an extremely rare prospect of a most significant investment return as an added bonus. This is something you or I will never see again in our lifetime.

Wealth represents "well-being." If you did sell your house, and use the proceeds to buy gold, how will you sleep at night..., now? Suppose gold languishes another year, two years..., five years? Are you so convinced of the dynamics surrounding this issue, that you won't waiver, and get afraid, and end up selling at a loss, and swearing to never own gold again? Or will you live as best as we mere mortals can, living as much as possible in peace and quiet, while steadily accumulating a tried and true wealth store for your future, as well as those who come after you? And acquiring it without the frenzy of "what if..." that impels so many, that makes you no better off than the speculators who are always on the edge, always monitoring the price of everything they've gambled on...

Better to just acquire gold steadily, as you have the means, and do it as your understanding of these issues gives you freedom and peace to do so.


USAGOLD Market CommentaryGold Starts Week Higher, Iraq Rekindles Embargo Fears#729564/8/02; 08:22:28

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BelgianOIL and GOLD#7295704/08/02; 08:53:30

This present flaring oil battle/struggle/war will reach a much higher peak as the ones we witnessed in the past 50 years ! And it is not only the *cheap* ME oil that is targetted but ALL oil ! Venezualan ...Angolan (Savimbi-kill)...Nigerian (another 200 deaths)...Russian/Caspian oil and gas fields ! Tony Blair has been shining Bush's shoes in his yesterday's speech. He's in the oil-club now and will never ever have any meaning in or for Euroland !

These Gigantic geopolitical efforts for Oil-Control by the dollar-block are the same efforts that, though less visible, are brought up to Control Gold ! The analogy on both (gold/oil) are to be found in the efforts to deviate the looming total economical collapse ! An interdependant global economy that can't survive (its present nature) a sustained POO above the 40$ or a POG that crushes the worthless dollar to its true proportions !

This massive global Oil offensive is the REASON for WAT+WMD and NOT the RESULT of war !!!!! Don't tell this to the sheeple !!!! The *Civilized* (???) part of the world knows what is best for all of us ??? Here I'm getting furious (sorry).
The Dutch and UK royals (+ Bush-clan) are the biggest shareHolders of the underground oil !

Islamic and Jewish hostilities will be exported and rising emotions will ripen ordinarry citizens for more and easier manipulation, with needless suffering as a consequence.
And ad nauseum...all this...with quasi gratis Gold for the few (right miner49er ?) !

USAGOLDAll. . . Variation on a Theme by Belgian#7295804/08/02; 09:43:00

I have this image in my mind of the Iraqi and Kuwaiti ministers hugging at an Arab conclave signalling to all present that by-gones will be by-gones. That was a symbolic event -- not just for Iraq and Kuwait but for the entirety of the Arab world and particularly the Gulf -- a radical patching it up with a monarchist. What is different this time is that Islamic fundamentalists are a concern within the theocratic monarchies as well as the socialist states where for the most the fundamentalists are already in power. When Isama bin Laden hit the World Trade Center, he was also setting his sights on Saudi Arabia -- the key to Western oil flows. To cover its flank, the Gulf monarchies must seem Arab first, suppliers to the West second. They must play to their populations or risk revolution -- Iran-style. Reports at the time said bin Laden wanted oil over $100 (if I remember correctly). In order for he monarchies to stay in power, they must cater to the rising tide of Islamic fundamentalism within their borders -- a deadly game. In the past, the financial markets could look to Saudi Arabia (for example) to pump up oil production to cover the deficit. Will they do it now? That is the key question the market will be asking themselves starting today. A report in the New York Times yesterday related how continental Europe had a far different attitude toward the Middle East than what appears to be the American largely pro-Isareli mind set. Europeans are not as concerned with the threat from Iraq and for the most part they come down on the side of the Palestinians as they have for a long time. This makes it difficult for the US to mount the same coalition that made the first Gulf War possible. Without European support and because the monarchies have their backs to the wall, the door is open for a strong push for higher oil prices which in turn will ignite inflation throughout the industrialized world along with the demand for gold. The Japanese by luck, circumstance and the survival instinct are simply ahead of the curve.
sectorJPM: Ringleader in Enron Fraud and Financial Treachery...So...what ELSE is New#7295904/08/02; 09:51:20

04/08 01:42
Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase Named in Enron Complaint (Update1)
By Patrick Oster

Houston, April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Credit Suisse First Boston and Merrill Lynch & Co. are among nine banks accused by Enron Corp. shareholders of engaging in ``an enormous Ponzi scheme'' to inflate Enron stock prices and make billions for themselves in the process.

The banks made misleading statements about Enron's income and debt that deceived shareholders in a ``grand illusion'' of phony profits and sham transactions, the plaintiffs say in their expanded version of an earlier suit. Enron was a ``hall of mirrors inside a house of cards,'' said the 502-page document, which will be filed later today in federal court in Houston.

The complaint, and a similar one to be filed on behalf of Enron employees, is aimed at asset-rich defendants by plaintiffs who say they lost $23 billion in Enron's collapse. Once the world's largest energy trader, Enron lost almost $70 billion in market value and is now mired in the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. Some 5,000 workers have been fired.

The latest accusations against the banks mark a new chapter in the unfolding scandal, alleging that some of the wealthiest institutions in the world are implicated. Still, legal experts say the plaintiffs face difficult obstacles in proving their case and winning the billions in damages they seek.

Novel Interpretation

For example, the companion employees' suit is expected to make novel use of a federal statute originally aimed at organized crime, said Robert Prentice, a business law professor at the University of Texas.

The shareholders and bond owners rely principally on federal securities laws, which require very detailed allegations of fraud in a complaint. To win damages, they must show a defendant made a material false statement or committed some manipulative act they relied on.

``We believe that our business dealings with Enron were entirely appropriate and therefore we think there is no merit to the lawsuit,'' Daniel Noonan, a Citigroup spokesman said last week. Credit Suisse, Merrill Lynch and J.P. Morgan declined to comment last week when questioned about the expected suits.

The banks named in the complaint include Bank of America, Barclays Bank, Deutsche Bank, Lehman Brothers and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. They couldn't be reached for immediate comment.

The complaint also adds several former directors of Enron and former executives of Arthur Andersen LLP, the nation's fifth largest accounting firm and Enron's auditor for 16 years.

Individuals Named

They include former Andersen Chief Executive Joseph Berardino; Andersen's chief Enron auditor, David Duncan, and Andersen lawyer Nancy Temple, who sent out an e-mail that Duncan said ordered destruction of Enron documents. The shredding was the basis for a March 7 federal indictment charging Amdersen with obstruction of justice.

The individuals couldn't be reached for comment.

The shareholders' complaint also names Enron's principal law firm, Houston-based Vinson & Elkins, and another law firm, Chicago- based Kirkland & Ellis, which advised off-the-books partnerships Enron used to misstate income and debt.

``There is no basis to add Kirkland & Ellis to the Enron lawsuits,'' Laurence Urgenson, a partner in the firm, has said.

Pocketing Billions

``This fraudulent scheme,'' the shareholders' complaint said. ``enabled defendants to pocket billions of dollars of legal, accounting, auditing and consulting fees, underwriting commissions, interest and credit facility payments, cash bonuses based on Enron's reported earnings and its stock performance.''

With the federal obstruction-of-justice indictment threatening Andersen's survival, the suit also adds Arthur Andersen Worldwide, an umbrella group of Andersen's independent overseas affiliates. Chicago-based Andersen LLP has lost more than 100 clients since Enron declared bankruptcy.

Shares of the energy trader fetched $90.75 in August 2000. They traded for 33 cents last week.

A February report commissioned by Enron's board said the company's top executives, including founder Ken Lay and former Chief Executive Jeffrey Skilling, amassed fortunes while workers lost their life savings and many investors fared almost as badly.

Financing Partnerships

The key charge in today's suit against the banks is that they helped Enron finance the off-the-books partnerships while many of them sold Enron stock or bonds to the public at inflated values.

For example, J.P. Morgan helped Enron hide almost $4 billion in debt in the partnerships, some of which were controlled by Enron's former chief financial officer, Andrew Fastow, the complaint said.

J.P. Morgan made ``huge underwriting and consulting fees'' and some of its top executives were permitted to invest in one partnership, LJM2, earning them guaranteed profits before the scheme fell apart, it said.

At the same time, the bank's analysts promoted the sale of Enron stock and bonds to an unsuspecting public while bank executives were aware of the true state of Enron's finances.

Citigroup, whose executives were in daily contact with Enron's top officials, was a principal lender to Enron, helping it to maintain an unjustified investment-grade credit rating and to finance some of the partnerships, the complaint said. Citigroup kept its own credit exposure to a minimum because of its knowledge of Enron's true finances, the complaint said.
The Federal Reserve's largest bank [JPM] is now wallowing in yet more charges of fraud. Only last week it finally settled the damages portion of its Sumitomo/Hamanaka/Copper market fraud. Recall that JPM was formally convicted. In that fraud, they set up secret offshore accounts for Hamanaka to short copper [Not informing Sumitomo's management]. Sumitomo ate $2 Billion in losses. The piddling $125 Million settlement no doubt masked back door payments [Vie BOJ] to make Sumitomo whole.

On top of this Enron stench, GoldGate's stealth facts are weighing on JPM too. Their protestations of innocence in both scandals now sound particularly hollow.

Let us all wait breathlessly for the Fed Chairman to pipe up about JPM's "Solid performance"...or perhaps..."Its marvelous use of derivatives"...or perhaps its timely "Management" of "Volatile commodities" which aided the US in its time of post 9/11 "Need".

Better yet, we yet might hear that the Chairman "Can't control" EVERY aspect of the bank's operations...somewhat akin to Mr. Arafat's "Inability to Control" Al Aqsa.

JPM's and the Fed's mission has always been to destroy matter what they may say in public.

The Fed has been found out.

USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Hard assets... Easy access!#7296004/08/02; 10:27:23


Gold Today!

Because you never know what tomorrow will bring.

Old YellerFannie and Freddie under scrutiny#7296104/08/02; 11:28:43

Oh-oh,that's a dangerous minefield to dance in.
JonMahendra says buy tech shares#7296204/08/02; 11:42:38

IBM off 10% today!
TownCrierJensen claims in his latest column: "Pro-Israeli bias stifles needed debate"#7296304/08/02; 12:24:48

Jensen writes:
-------Pro-Israel bias is so ingrained in our government, media and public consciousness that anyone who sympathizes with the Palestinians or tries to explain the Arab point of view is immediately labeled "anti-Israel." Some have been called "anti-Semitic." And Jews who dare to question are branded "self-haters."

Ironically, there is a far healthier debate on these issues in Israel than here. In Jerusalem, I asked an Israeli colleague, who writes pretty much what I write, whether he received hate mail. "Only from American Jews," he replied.-----

Jensen concludes with these remarks:

------As Michael Lind points out in a thoughtful article for the British magazine Prospect, "What is needed is a debate between those who want to link U.S. support for Israel to its behavior, in the light of America's own strategic goals and moral ideals, and those who want there to be no linkage."

Such a debate is long overdue. If, heaven forbid, Palestinian suicide bombers move to our shores, we should at least know why.-------

(Click link for complete commentary)

BelgianCrude Oil and inflahopsahyperlala....#7296404/08/02; 12:26:41

USAGold, allow me to add the following to your ME analysis.
Russian oil production equals the Saudi output today !
The Russians are NOT (repeat NOT) going to let their oil flow for a *friendly* price !!! On the contrary, they will add oil(not the crude) to the (ME) fires, stealthly (Iran connection) ! Compare their coming oil-policies with the Norilsk tactics ! Cruel, efficient and without mercy (social engagement).

TownCrierAn update from 'The Rocket School of Economics'#7296504/08/02; 12:40:16

In this lecture titled "Currencies versus Gold", Professor von Braun takes aim at the position of the central banks. He says:

------When the investing public begins to see that the(ir) [currency's] purchasing power is being eroded AND that the CB's are helpless to stop this event, then gold and silver will begin a serious rise in price.

The CB's cannot grow wheat, corn or beans, nor can they produce cotton, or oil and gas, or metals for that matter. All they can do is issue promises to pay promises to pay promises, something they have gotten remarkably good at doping and are still doing it to this day.

We suggest that a close watch be kept on the CRB index as overall rising commodity prices associated with this index will be the clue to the first test of the CB's abilities to maintain the promises-to-pay-promises game, a test which will reveal their inability to lie about how healthy things are. Perhaps their first reaction will be to dump on the gold market even harder than they have been doing, who knows. But it needs to be remembered that a falling gold price is the only weapon they have against the early warning signs of rising commodity prices and they still have a considerable amount of ammunition should they need it.

A twofold strategy of buying into a rising commodity market and buying physical gold in a falling market may be the way to play the collapsing currency/stock game that is in the process of beginning, but do not expect the CB's to give up without a fight.--------

Click URL above for his full commentary

TownCrierWGC weekly gold market overview#7296604/08/02; 13:10:13

Last Thrusday I gave a rundown of the Eurosystem's quarterly asset (including gold) revaluation on a mark-to-market basis. Switzerland, not being part of the monetary union, nonetheless has through its central bank also adopted these international "best practices" to mark gold reserves periodically to market value.

Priced in Swiss Francs, the unit-value of gold over the quarter rose by 9.3%.

Click link for more on this and other items.

SiochainRubin appointed to Harvard Governing Board#7296704/08/02; 13:20:48

Rubin is certainly spreading his wings ......positioning hinself for cover?
Part:"Robert Rubin is one of the most accomplished and admired Harvard alumni of his generation," said James R. Houghton, a member of the Corporation and chair of the search committee. "He is a person of superb judgment and wide-ranging experience, and I'm very pleased that he has agreed to serve Harvard in this important role."

"Rubin is widely regarded as having been one of the most effective Treasury Secretaries in the nation's history. His years in government were characterized by the longest domestic peacetime expansion in U.S. history, low inflation, low unemployment, and a stock market that rose to record levels. On the international front, he worked to strengthen the dollar and to defuse financial crises in Mexico and Asia, carefully navigating the U.S. economy through a period of transformative global change."

Siochain...Unhuh...that's why economy is doing so well...NOT...and by the way I though GWB is a Harvard graduate of Rubin's generation...guess he's not admired

HipplebeckBush Speech#7296804/08/02; 13:29:21

I saw a Bush speech today, and it made me think of a movie that I saw. If you haven't seen it, I recommend it highly.
It''s called Swing Kids. It's about a group of young men who were into swing music in Germany as the Nazis took control of the country.

Gandalf the White< ; - )>>#7296904/08/02; 13:35:04

Be it known that on Saturday April 6th 2002, that at High Noon in the Capital City of the Evergreen State of Washington, twenty-eight GOLDHEARTS, (many from distances far), met to share words of encouragement and wisdom. Known names of many present and "past" Knights of this TableRound were seen at this PNW gathering, and some are planning another such gathering to occur at a PNW location soon.

Cavan ManWhat can we make and sell for a profit?#7297004/08/02; 13:38:17

Levi Strauss to Fire 3,300, Close Six U.S. Factories (Update6)
By Andria Cheng

San Francisco, April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Levi Strauss & Co., whose sales are falling for the sixth year in a row, will fire 3,300 people and close six U.S. plants as the jeansmaker shifts production to lower-wage countries such as Mexico.

``It's a painful but necessary business decision done for competitive reasons,'' Chief Financial Officer Bill Chiasson said in an interview. The job cuts equal 20 percent of Levi's workforce.

Three factories in Texas and one each in Georgia, California and Tennessee will be shut, Levi said. That will leave the closely held company with two U.S. plants, in San Antonio. Another 300 jobs may be cut from one of them, spokeswoman Linda Butler said.

Chief Executive Phil Marineau, who took over in 1999, is expanding a program predecessor Robert Haas started to focus on marketing and design instead of production. Levi has shut 22 U.S. plants since 1997. Other apparel and shoe companies already had started moving production overseas. Nike Inc. shifted all whole- shoe manufacturing operations to Asia in the early 1990s.

``In this industry, if you don't restructure and constantly lower costs, you won't make it,'' said Carla Casella, a fixed- income analyst at J.P. Morgan Securities Inc.

Levi, which began making jeans for goldminers in 1887, is still trying to determine the cost of shutting the plants, Butler said. The maker of Levi's jeans and Dockers slacks currently has 21 plants worldwide and employs 16,600, including 9,000 factory workers.

San Francisco-based Levi releases financial results because its bonds are registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Levi's bond prices have risen, analysts said. For example, the price on the company's 11 5/8 percent coupon bond maturing in 2008 has increased to $1,049 per $1,000 face value, from a year low of $693 reached in October, according to Bloomberg data.

Lower Costs

Low-cost manufacturers abroad have forced U.S. clothing and textile companies from T-shirt maker Russell Corp. to underwear producer Fruit of the Loom Inc. to close their own plants and farm out production, analysts said.

``The Indonesias and Chinas of the world can produce these goods much cheaper than in the U.S. (because of) cheaper labor costs and the strong dollar,'' said Jay Bryson, chief international economist at Wachovia Securities Corp. in Charlotte. ``Fifty years from now, there may not be a textile or apparel industry in this country at all. We may be importing everything.''

About 28 percent of Levi's jeans for its U.S. business have been made at its own plants in the U.S., down from about two- thirds in 1997. With today's announcement, that percentage will decline ``significantly,'' Butler said. The company doesn't have percentage of that on an overseas basis, she said.


Levi plans to shut plants in Blue Ridge, Georgia, and San Francisco by the end of June, and the factories in Brownsville and San Benito, Texas, in August. The plants in Powell, Tennessee, and El Paso, Texas, will be closed in October.

A sewing plant, with 600 workers, and a finishing plant, with 530, will remain, Levi said. The additional 300 cuts will come only from the finishing plant, Butler said.

Levi said it has negotiated an employee-separation package with the United Food and Commercial Workers union, which represents workers at the Tennessee and San Francisco plants. Talks are still in progress with the Union of Needletrades Industrial and Textile Employees, which represents the other four plants.

The company in January said it would shut two plants in Scotland and an unspecified number in the U.S.

Reviving Sales

Marineau already has been trimming advertising and inventory and getting better fabric prices to help reduce costs.

He also has been adding products such as low-rise jeans to win back teenagers and young adults, many of whom switched to the styles of Italian clothing maker Diesel SpA and the cheaper brands of stores such as J.C. Penney Co., analysts said.

``Their business was strictly reliant on a basic commodity: five-pocket jeans, when the market was moving into more fashionable washes and cuts,'' said Mark Minsky, senior vice president of merchandising at Doneger Group, a fashion merchandising and consulting firm in New York.

Levi's sales have dropped every year from a record $7.14 billion in 1996. Last year, they were $4.26 billion.

This year, sales, excluding the effect of foreign-currency translations, are expected to fall at a low-single-digit percentage rate, Levi said last month.

Levi had total debt of $1.96 billion as of Feb. 24, according to an annual filing with the SEC. About $106.6 million of that matures in the year ending February 2003, Butler said.

The company said it has no off-balance-sheet debt.

BelgianSome underground Gold news#7297104/08/02; 14:46:40

DROOY and Yes, Anglogold are making a loan / issue convertible bond, for...guess what : To get those oh so clever HEDGES from their backs !? Don't bother to ask them "how" this will be done.

But wait...the hedgers paid for some very interesting IN DEPT research (hohum) : (Miningweb)
Research done by Don Maclean-Beacon Group Advisors (Toronto). 85 Pages with a cost of 8.500$ (not payable in the equivalent of almost 1 KG of Refined Gold-smile) .
Conclusion (after payment done) : 10 yrs of steadily declining POG resulted NOT in a declining Gold output ! OHHH yeahhhh.
But the best part of the research is in finding an answer when those expected output declines will come ! And in these projections we decode what dear Don Beacon is paid for and by whom.

1/ A POG staying at 275$/300$ : Output decline to start in 2005. Reaching 29%/22% below 2001 level in 2010. In this case, dear Don will do the "in dept" reseach again for the same amount of 8.500$ with no Gold equivalent as to not disturb the offer/demand balance with its 2% annual increase (smile) ! Though Don emphasises that the miners must ensure that demand was healthy . Meaning jewelry gold of course.

2/ POG between 325$ and 350$ would bring additional output of Gold. He did not say Hedged gold.

Telling the miningindustry that there was no decline in output and using a POG range of 275$/350$ (max 27% fluctuation range) in a timespan of 10 worth 8.500$. The WA POG spike was + 25% in a matter of days !

A perfect example of (paid) linear thinking on Gold as a commodity. Without even taking a POG decline in consideration. Don Maclean was able to present his very in dept research (grrr) due to the absence of Barrick's A.Hill as shedualed speaker on the Forum.

What did Don do what the WGC didn't do on output statistics ? I'll leave it here and judge for yourself on the "serieux" (seriousness) of these miners .

uponroofRubin......funny, that's not what I remember#7297204/08/02; 14:48:15

Read this carefully and understand what Rubin's agenda is.... Note the date (1999) and the now prophetic points the author makes.

btw-I sent this link to the Harvard University Gazette.

RockgrabberModern Day Dollar World. What a Joke#7297304/08/02; 15:03:38

Will this modern day dollar world prove to be a bigger scam then the illigal drug scam? What one has or will hurt more people?
Lets just put our money where our mouth is. GOLD

RobotGuyBUSH "I meant what I said!"#7297404/08/02; 15:05:56

I've been looking for an 'or else' clause, but I haven't been able to find one. Stern words backed by action, or merely words to appease those in disagreement with Isreal's activity? What are you going to do if Sharon continues besiegement of the Palestinian state, Mr.President? IMHO (RobotGuy) absolutely nothing.
Iraq couldn't possibly be trying to team up with the rest of the global community by cutting oil shipments, but Saddam is definitely getting involved. Could this be an effort on Saddam's behalf to inspire an immediate agressive end to occupation of Arabian territories? An action to force other nations to get more heavily involved while sitting on the sidelines and watching? If Saddam's actions appear to have the ability to inspire immediate action, why wouldn't the other OPEC's take part? It has been implied by other nations that the embargo idea was just a psych, but now it appears that Saddam is serious.
I have a feeling that soon we will see Isreal's withdrawl with a statement that they have accomplished their mission and wiped out a large portion of Palestinian terrorist activity. I also expect that if and when it happens, Mr. President Bush will somehow be the hero. Perhaps Colon P. will have some amazing affect while visiting.

RobotGuy - - - Just blabbin. :)

uponroofA lot of iceberg tips being found these days.....this one is larger than most#7297504/08/02; 15:16:58

New York Gets Courts Order Forcing Merrill to Change Analysis Process
Mon Apr 8, 3:50 PM ET

By: Charles Gasparino, Staff Reporter of The Wall Street Journal

NEW YORK -- New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer confirmed the office has obtained a court order forcing Merrill Lynch & Co . (MER) to overhaul the way its analysts rate corporate clients.

He said "dramatic and troubling" evidence showed that Merrill's supposedly objective independent advice was tainted by a desire to aid the firm's investment-banking business.

"Research was openly used as a sales hook for investment-banking business," claimed Mr. Spitzer. "Public assessment of stocks was often false."

He added the continuing investigation isn't limited to Merrill, saying, "As dramatic and damning as this evidence is against Merrill Lynch, it may be tip of the iceberg." Mr. Spitzer went on to allege the problems at Merrill went far beyond a single analyst or research unit..."

Cavan ManPaper Gold#7297604/08/02; 15:22:59

So, if you are a large paper gold holder/player and your paper gold is in your portfoilio to hedge against a variety of risk; and, further; if you see that in light of various and sundry current events which would normally support a significantly higher gold price, even a modest + 10% or so; do you exercise good judgment and prudence and sell those same paper instruments because they are not delivering what you paid for? Is this how the bifurcation of the market might unfold?

Note: This is not a paid, testimonial for metal ownership.

timbervisionminer49er#7297704/08/02; 15:36:38

Your comments are much appreciated. Of course one never see's oneself as one of those "... speculators who are always on the edge, always monitoring the price of everything they've gambled on...". But one needs to step back frequently and really think about what is best.

I did sell my house but it was right for many reasons and being able to buy some gold was a bonus. My "sleep at night" issue has more to do with timing-- when to convert mining shares to physical. The idea "what your understanding allows" is very critical. Homestake Mining had a tremendous rise and dividend after the crash of '29. I know that is what many people are anticipating this time and so far mines have been good. Because of FOA and the Gold Trail we are all offered another possibility, that seems counter-intuitive -- "when" gold takes off, mining shares go down. This is my current understanding. Am I right? Will FOA return and update us with his thoughts? Can world events transpire that alter this thesis? I don't know.

My own gut feel is that when something happens it will be a bit like 9/11, sudden and unexpected in its magnitude.

The best I can do, which parallels your final point is to steadily accumulate physical. A strategy of converting with each upward move in gold is the one for which my current understanding allows. But I'm all ears.


Black BladeOpec warns of oil crisis#7297804/08/02; 16:42:35


Oil pipelines from Iraq have already shut down

A global oil crisis is looming with Iraq's decision to stop exports and a strike hitting production in Venezuela, the head of industry cartel Opec said on Monday.
Saddam Hussein has announced an immediate halt to oil exports for 30 days in protest at Israel's military action against the Palestinians. Exports from Venezuela have been almost halted by industrial action in protest against the company's new board of directors. Iraq and Venezuela jointly export about 4.5 million barrels a day, with Venezuela a major supplier to the US market.

Black Blade: It appears that emergency meetings will be called by OPEC. Wall Street is putting on a brave face and saying that oil will magically appear and that oil is not important anyway. However, commentators and some guests tonight on CNBC are saying – don't be so sure. Oil is important to almost every aspect of the US economy. I agree. Dubya today expressed concern and stated that Congress had better get on the ball with the "energy policy". Wait to see the reaction of US consumers at the pump. Meanwhile petroleum prices are rising.

YGMGolden Sextant Latest.......(Sir Reginald Howe)#7297904/08/02; 16:43:02

Apr. 8th Commentary.......

Reg, you're a pitbull aroused!...YGM.

We all thank you and should help with costs or at least help support GATA with

(anyone want to start a Reg Howe Fund?)


Ten BearsNotes from previous posts#7298004/08/02; 16:55:20

It is said that, "when the student is ready the master will appear". I have lurked for several years here, USAGold has many "masters". Thanks, and thanks to the proprietor of this site for making their knowledge available. My purpose in this post is to outline in paraphrased form some small amount of information previously provided by the masters themselves.
(1)The argument for sound money is an argument against the international financiers and the central banks.
(2)Debt money requires perpetual growth to re-finance the debt (plus interest).
(3)Cutting interest in the last few years equals a welfare program for the banks.
(4)Too often, modern American business : a. borrows money; b. cooks the books to make loans look like earnings;c. sells new issues to cronies/speculators who re-sell at huge multiples based on the phony earnings;d. insiders unload stocks to pension funds and 401K accounts;e. the true purpose of the business is to hype and sell worthless paper.
(5)The term 'free markets' is a code word for the freedom of the market makers and cronies to manipulate the markets
(with full support of the central bankers).
(6)Government regulators are captured by the very interests they are supposed to regulate.
(7)The term US Treasury Gold may really be gold owned by the privately owned (Federal Reserve).
(8)The term 'free trade' is a code term for the importation of slave labor produced goods manufactured in modern factories constructed with borrowed US dollars.
(9)US imigration policies import poverty.
(10)US trade policies export technology and the manufacturing base.
(11)The huge number of dollars leaving the USA in the trade deficit partially returns to service debt but does not flow to the majority of Americans (particularly the workers).
(12)The financial corporations have sucked the life out of domestic manufacturing, enslaved foreign workers, and impoverished American workers.
(13)Financial engineering/derivatives have distorted most markets and have created disconnects between actual availability and paper deliverability of commodities and gold.
These are only a few of the points made here in the last few years.
Thanks for reading...Ten Bears

Black BladeReforms Coming to Remedy '90s Abuses#7298104/08/02; 17:02:23


The scope of reforms coming to the U.S. corporate regulatory system could be greater than any seen in the six decades since passage of the first securities laws and the creation of the Securities and Exchange Commission. That became clear last week when the SEC said it had opened inquiries into the accounting practices of 49 companies, many of them on the Fortune 500 list of the largest firms in the United States.

Regulators suspect a widespread pattern of corporate managements inflating revenues and earnings by adroit and misleading accounting. Enron Corp. was the tip of the iceberg. So laws and regulations on the governance of corporations are being considered by Congress, the SEC, corporate boardrooms and business schools. A few changes almost certain to come in the new era of reform era are:

Black Blade: Interesting article. Some interesting proposals. I agree that overpaid worthless CEOs and other executives should be prosecuted for abuses and if convicted sent to a "real" prison for a very long time. And auditors should also be held responsible for their work. These proposals could change the face of corporate America.

Black BladeNew York goes after Merrill Lynch#7298204/08/02; 17:25:21

Misleading analyst ratings allegedly linked to i-bank ops


NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The New York attorney general sharply criticized the stock-rating practices at Merrill Lynch on Monday and obtained a court order compelling the country's largest broker to disclose to customers the ties between its equity analysts and investment bankers.

Black Blade: A change is in the wind. I smell many major lawsuits coming. Remember that Internet analyst guru Henry Blogett was paid off and allowed to "pursue other interests".

Black BladeCitigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase Named in Enron Complaint #7298304/08/02; 17:31:18


Houston, April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Credit Suisse First Boston and Merrill Lynch & Co. are among nine banks accused by Enron Corp. shareholders of engaging in ``an enormous Ponzi scheme'' to inflate Enron stock prices and make billions for themselves in the process. The banks made misleading statements about Enron's income and debt that deceived shareholders in a ``grand illusion'' of phony profits and sham transactions, the plaintiffs say in their expanded version of an earlier suit. Enron was a ``hall of mirrors inside a house of cards,'' said the 502-page document, which will be filed later today in federal court in Houston.

The complaint, and a similar one to be filed on behalf of Enron employees, is aimed at asset-rich defendants by plaintiffs who say they lost $23 billion in Enron's collapse. Once the world's largest energy trader, Enron lost almost $70 billion in market value and is now mired in the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. Some 5,000 workers have been fired.

The latest accusations against the banks mark a new chapter in the unfolding scandal, alleging that some of the wealthiest institutions in the world are implicated. Still, legal experts say the plaintiffs face difficult obstacles in proving their case and winning the billions in damages they seek.

Black Blade: Very interesting. Just another lawsuit added to the growing list. A lot of wealth was blown away like wisps of smoke. That's money gone – "Gone to Money Heaven" – never to be seen again.

Siochain@uponroof#7298404/08/02; 17:38:04

Thanks for the link...very good summary on Rubin's activites!
Black BladeMarket Wrap Up - Jim Puplava#7298504/08/02; 17:41:40

Oil Markets and Middle East Tension


The oil markets and tensions in the Middle East continue to dominate investor concerns. The price of crude moved up again this morning after Iraqi President Saddam Hussein decided to impose his own oil embargo against the West to protest Israel's occupation of hostile Palestinian territory. Iraq and Iran have both called for a 30-day oil embargo by OPEC to protest Israel taking action to stop Palestinian terrorism. Up to this point OPEC has been unwilling to impose an embargo and has rejected both calls from Iraq and Iran to do so. Iraq's decision to impose an embargo came after Libya said it would support a halt of oil production by Islamic countries against countries that back Israel. The biggest fear right now in the financial markets is if other members of OPEC decide to join Iraq.

The combination of Iraq, the reduction of oil production by Venezuela, along with Middle East turmoil could force oil prices even higher. An embargo at a time when OPEC has already made significant cutbacks in production could severely draw down oil inventories in Western countries. Western economies are very vulnerable at the moment to another oil shock. Most economies in the West are either in recession or trying to work their way out of one. The last three oil shocks in 1973, 1979, and 1990 came at a time when western economies were at a vulnerable point in their economic cycle. They also occurred at a time of Middle East tensions. In 1973 was the Yom Kippur War; in 1979 there was the fall of Shaw during the Iranian Revolution; and in 1990 it was the advent of the Gulf War. A common thread associated with recessions during these periods was a spike in oil prices.

Black Blade: A good rundown on the Oil situation. Oil and Natural Gas prices are rising again. There is growing unrest in the Middle East with rioting and demonstrations in the Arab world from Morocco to Egypt to Yemen to Saudi to Iran. There is growing internal pressure from the people on these governments to react to the Israeli invasion. There still exists a good possibility that they will use the oil weapon.

Black BladeGlobal: Another Oil Shock? #7298604/08/02; 17:54:29

Stephen Roach (New York)

Courtesy of an increasingly tragic chain of events in the Middle East, the world could well be facing its fourth oil shock in the past 29 years. The first three were decisive in pushing the global economy into recession. Would it be any different this time?

Another oil shock would hit the global economy at an especially vulnerable time. Even under the most optimistic assessment -- one that I do not share -- the world is only a few months into recovery from the rare synchronous recession of 2001. It is a global recovery that is being led by a US-driven inventory dynamic that has sparked a concomitant cyclical upturn in the global trade cycle. The optimists argue that this recovery is now being reinforced by a revival in final demand. We pessimists -- the "we" is, perhaps, a bit of a stretch -- doubt the case for a final demand follow-through and look, instead, for a relapse, or double dip, later this year. In either instance, however, there is nothing solid about the cyclical upturn in the world economy. It would be one thing if this cyclical revival were unleashing a torrent of pent-up final demand that was about to take on a life of its own. But for a US-centric global economy, the classic sources of pent-up demand -- consumer durables and homebuilding activity -- have already been exhausted, in my view.

Black Blade: In fact every postwar recession has been preceded by an energy crisis. What sets apart this current recession is that it was not preceded by an "Oil Crisis" as much as a general "Energy Crisis" where electrical generation was in short supply resulting in sky high utility rates. The same variables that led to this latest crisis are still in place, therefore an economic recovery is highly unlikely until the issue of stable abundant energy is addressed.

USAGOLDHedging Blows a Hole in Newcrest Profit#7298704/08/02; 18:20:58

Newcrest Mining's short-term hedging nightmare came back to haunt it yesterday, after currency and gold hedging
losses triggered a near 90 per cent fall in third-quarter earnings.

Newcrest's net profit for the three months to March 31 fell to just $1.3 million from $12.5 million in the previous quarter.

Despite reporting gold sales of 159,752 ounces at $545 an ounce, Newcrest's result was hit by a $13 million loss on
foreign exchange contracts, a gold loan loss of $4.7 million, a $6.5 million loss on gold options and a $4.4 million loss
on surplus hedge contracts.

MK Comment: And you thought I was kidding when I said that certain gold stock owners will lose money when the price of gold rises.

uponroofHow to incite a class action lawsuit....start with this statement from the NY Attorney General .....#7298804/08/02; 19:16:49

"...Spitzer said he did not know how much money customers lost because of the 112-year-old firm's practices, but he said he believes the clients "number in the hundreds of thousands, if not millions..."

* * *

Now read this paragraph which states the investigation is far from isolated on Merrill...

"...Spitzer called the order an "interim" step. He said the investigation is continuing into several other companies and could lead to criminal charges..."

My my my...

Why do so many of these 'Spitzer types' now have a hardon for Wall St?

Times are certainly changing.

TownCrierAs a mining stock investor, you might open your pocket wide for government hands#7298904/08/02; 19:39:15

Remember discussions here about commodity production controls a la the Texas Railroad Commission and also about such things as windfall profits taxes?

Here we se more lessons from Argentina to build upon those already presented, including the recent capital controls there.

As you'll recall, the peso devaluation -- under straightforward economic analysis -- portended well for exporting companies. But that was then, and this is now.

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, April 8 (Reuters) - Argentine stocks fell on Monday on low volume due to export taxes on farm goods...

The Argentine government doubled export taxes to 20 percent on grains, oil seeds, vegetable oils and vegetable meals last Thursday to boost dwindling tax revenues.
---- (click URL for more)-----

Since the devaluation, the peso has thus far lost nearly two-thirds of its purchasing power against the dollar (and yet more against gold whixh is up over 300%), and with the latest taxation on exports, the MerVal (Argentine stock market) is sliding off of its comparatively anemic 40% gains.

The underlying message is to be sure you know what you own and the characteristic risks each asset is susceptible to. A certain class of gold coins (pre-1933s) may be your best friend when gold rises in price, with mines and bullion falling under congressional scrutiny as an easy means to raise revenue.


Black BladeCentral banks aim to extend gold sale deal #7299004/08/02; 19:44:23


April 09 2002 at 12:05AM
Frankfurt - European central banks aimed to extend a landmark deal that had helped lift gold prices by capping sales of bullion reserves, the industry-backed World Gold Council said yesterday.

The Washington Agreement, signed in 1999, limited gold sales by its 15 backers, thus removing the threat that central banks would rush to sell gold reserves and put the sales proceeds into other investments such as bonds.

Black Blade: Washington Agreement to be extended. Oh boy, is Welkete going to be bummed.

Black BladeGold supply fall of 30% predicted for this decade #7299104/08/02; 20:00:01


LONDON - World supply of mined gold may plummet by nearly 30% by 2010 unless bullion prices rally and prompt miners to bring untapped deposits on stream, a mining study showed yesterday. Toronto-based mining investment banking and research firm Beacon Group Advisors forecast global gold output falling this year for the first time in two decades, reflecting years of low prices and slashed exploration budgets. Supplies should continue to fall, with the decline accelerating after 2006 as output drops from mature mines in the United States and Canada. "A gold price above US$325 is needed to prevent the decline," Don MacLean, Beacon Group managing director, told a mining conference where the study was presented.

Black Blade: I agree completely. Today I talked with a former colleague of mine in Elko, NV and he told me of a couple of mines in Nevada that will lay off several hundred people this September, and at least one mine closure. Many mines are nearly played out as they high-graded and have done little exploration to replace reserves due to the low POG. Gold supply from existing mines will precipitously decrease over the next few years.

Hipplebeckgoldbug on glenfiddich#7299204/08/02; 20:29:13

I remember about 6 months ago watching a senate hearing and listening to some of the boys (mostly Dominici)talking about how we need to see gold at $300 because of the overvalued dollar. Well boys, you have it, and we don't see that current account balance any better. I also remember seeing him actually rubbing his hands together in anticipation of how he and his pals were going to spend that surplus. No, I am not kidding. He was actually ribbing his hands together as he talked about it like a little kid would.
The classic description of a ponzi scheme is that you always need exponential growth to keep the game going. Well, we have got that dollar ponzi out there. Are we almost at the point where everyone realizes what the hell it is all about? I mean, there are are bound to be some folks living in the primitive tribes of the rainforest who we can still exploit, but we are using them up fast these days, and the end must surely be in sight.
Pokemon should surely have been a clue.

Black BladeAsian Markets Look A Little Red Tonight#7299304/08/02; 20:29:59

Asian markets are pulling into negative territory as threats to world Oil Supply weigh heavy on the markets. The major Asian market import virtually all their oil.

- Black Blade

Black BladeAndersen to Cut 7,000 Jobs in U.S.#7299404/08/02; 20:35:18


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Andersen (ANDR.UL) started cutting 7,000 jobs on Monday, or a little more than a quarter of its U.S. staff, and held open the possibility of more cuts as the accounting firm disintegrated further under the weight of its involvement in the Enron Corp.

Black Blade: No accounting for those "Bones". Meanwhile the "Bone Pile" continues to grow as Levi Strauss lays off 3300, and now reports of accelerating layoffs in retail (at record levels since the 1970's). In a word - "Grim".

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")Gold's Bright Future#7299504/08/02; 20:37:41

Bullish on 299 it's showing its fallback zone. This can't last for long with oil on the rise. If anyone with 50 IQ points in his head ever picks up a WSJ paper or an issue of IBD the only bull sectors are gold and defense and probably oil real soon. It's been that way for weeks. As the curtains close on Enronitis and Nasdip techno tragedy its a full focus on the gold sector. If the sector ever gets the limelight, which it will in time, it's going to be like cramming 500 people into a little conference room at a Howard Johnsons. With only 32 flavors to choose from will any of it not go up. Yes we know what a hedge crash is............ASL............but Freddy stock flipper doesn't know and that is the mentality out there. I see people going through stages. No one becomes a goldbug overnight. First they buy some physical to get a feel for gold. Then it might be a dabble with a gold based mutual fund. Maybe gold stocks if they have the kidneys for it. But all the time the anti-fiat paper psychosis sets in then they want more physical. Why do some expect every paper gold sinner to run up to the altar of physical and dump his soul. Its no different than some fat preacher ranting on and on to mock people's intelligence demanding that they come up to their altar. I've got an altar by my bed. There I'll figure out how much physical to own with money entrusted to me. I also need a better paying job as construction work is wearing out my physical that I can't buy. So if I can read charts and plot lines and swing trades and generate much as a weeks paycheck in one trade....why is that a crime. I'm directly opposed to the bullion banks shorting attacks. I'm goreing the bears so why tread on me. Who causes short squeezes on gold and sounds the stampede. I'll go brain dead if I go all-physical. Or maybe some of you hate traders because you had positions but got skeered and soul..d out and fed those bears. The sign at the park says DON'T FEED THE BEARS. But who fed them? Well, I never saw the movie. I only read all the books. Gamblers usually loose until they learn to count the cards, then they win and get their name cast out as being worthless.

I can't go along with the success of Sadam's ploy to not sell oil. Eventually he will sell and the others who took his place will have better relations. He can't drink the crude so is enemployment in those oilfields good or not. It's a good upside spoof for the POG but we all know the true guzzler of oil is your SUV. Monster trucks make the price of oil and gold go up.

Hipplebeckgoldbug on glenfiddich#7299604/08/02; 20:40:40

Wouldn't you think that if some other countries besides Iraq were going to do an oil embargo they would be smart enough to do it like the blue flu or something? Why announce it? Why not just have a little problem?
Hipplebeckgoldbug on glenfiddich#7299704/08/02; 20:49:34

One thing that people seem to be overlooking on the embargo by Saddam is that he is not really hurting himself. He is cutting off sales through the pipelines which have to go through the oil for food deal which the US gets to skim off about a third of the price right off the bat and then decide what he gets to buy with it. The oil for food deal is also about 5 billion behind, meaning he has about 5 billion in that trust fund that hasn't been released because of all the dual use restrictions. In other words, he is pumping oil and it is just building up in the UN bank account. He really makes his money on the black market stuff that goes to his neighbors in trucks, and he is not cutting that off. Saddam may be dumb, but you don't get in a position of running a country full of Arabs by being that dumb.
Black BladeJapan Banks Suffer Loan Losses#7299804/08/02; 21:01:22

Report: Bad Loan Losses at Japan's Major Banks Higher Than Expected


TOKYO (AP) -- A government probe has found that losses related to bad loans at Japan's 13 major banks are likely higher than previously thought, a newspaper reported Tuesday. The Financial Supervisory Agency discovered the figure to be $15.2 billion more than the $49.2 billion estimated in September, the Nihon Keizai said.

The Japanese government estimates there are $323 billion in bad loans throughout Japan's banking system. Private analysts say the figure could be much higher. The government is promising to clean up the bad debts in three years, a task analysts say is necessary before Japan can begin to emerge from its decade-long economic slump.

Black Blade: I believe that it could be much higher. Japanese banks have be very reluctant to write of bad loans. Now they have their backs against the wall. As guarantees for regular savings deposits due to expire next year, we could see many if not most of these banks go tits up.

RobotGuyHipplebeck - - - Ah, the old GlenFiddich#7299904/08/02; 21:47:14

I love 'er on the rocks! Golden in colour,.. you can't beat that! Bell's and Dewars are next in line for me, I like a good cheap scotch, tee hee hee... I've got a 60 of Glen just dying to be cracked, but I'm savin' 'er for a special occasion. If we see what I think we're all waiting to see, I'm gonna crack 'er and try to avoid posting, but you can bet I'll be tuned in!!


TownCrierSTORM WATCH Update#7300004/08/02; 22:24:12

Jim Puplava's commentary this week is filled with graphs and plenty of food for thought.

-------"Central bankers are fighting a two-front war. One front is in the financial system that requires constant injections of liquidity to hold back the debt defaults and prevent the system from collapsing. The other battle is to prevent users inside the system from shifting their funds to an alternative medium such as gold, silver, oil or any other tangible good that would compete with paper and credit. It is a lot like a fork in the road. On one side is the credit and paper money system that makes up the world's financial system. On the other road are tangible goods such as base metals, oil, silver and gold. The war is a constant battle where the public must be corralled on the one side of the road. ...The way the battle is waged is throughthe derivative markets."-------

Click URL for more

The HoopleIBM blinker light turned on !#7300104/08/02; 23:41:02

One of my warning indicators turned bright red today. That IBM missed by such a huge margin should send shudders up and down Wall Street. The spin on this was pretty silly, and does anyone really believe that the Nasdaq got bid up while gold and silver flatlined all day? Another bizarre day in the bubble tales. Fleck is right about IBM being the warning to exit stocks IMO. What if just a little of that market cap headed toward gold? Maybe IBM could hire JPM to devise a new hedge strategy like Enron's. Oh wait a minute, maybe they already have.
Black BladeThe Once & Future Petro Kings #7300204/09/02; 00:04:22

Saudi oil clout isn't what it used to be. But the sheiks still control the world's main energy faucet--and they still use their power mainly as a force for stability


April 8 issue -- The kings of oil are the Saudis, now and until the wells run dry. Of late the sheiks have been cast as the wobbling heads of a withering oil cartel, weakening next to a rising Russian petro power, as Iraq waits in the wings to usurp their place in Arabia. Dream on. There's some truth to the image of a declining desert monarchy: Saudi oil clout is not quite as absolute as it used to be, and the proliferating Saudi people are less prosperous. But there are some basic facts on the ground, and under it, that just can't be ignored. The Saudis not only sit on the greatest share of global reserves, they are also the only nation with so much spare production capacity they can flood the oil markets any time. As one Saudi official boasts, "We can always turn on the faucet and really screw the other producers."

Black Blade: As it is, only the Saudis had any spare oil production during the last "energy crisis". The western economies are hostage to the whims of the major OPEC and former Soviet oil producers. Energy independence is a national security and economic issue.

Black BladeThe Thirst for Oil #730034/9/02; 00:16:14

Bush warns of the worst energy crisis since the '70s. But even if that's so, his strategy--pump more U.S. oil--wouldn't solve it. The anatomy of a bad policy


April 8 issue -- The fat book opens like the tale of another age, with a nighttime image of auto lights streaking red and white past the World Trade Center. Released last May, the Bush energy policy warns that dwindling supplies of oil and gas, an antiquated power grid and burdensome regulation threaten to drag the United States into the "worst energy-supply crisis since the 1970s." In his introductory speech, Bush spelled out a scary 20-year scenario in which America becomes increasingly "vulnerable to price shocks, supply interruptions and, in the worst case, blackmail." Four months later the World Trade Center was suddenly gone, and it would no longer do for the U.S. president to evoke other crises, or a time of post-oil-shock stagflation. Yet if Bush's projections were ever true, they still are, raising a scary question: is there really an energy crisis ahead?

Black Blade: Interesting article though most is meaningless drivel, however, it completely misses the point. Worldwide oil production is likely near its peak (Hubbert Peak). It's also not a matter of how much oil, but rather how much "cheap oil" is available and for how long.

Black BladeWhen Wells Go Dry #730044/9/02; 00:27:21


Energy: The rate of global oil production will start to fall in just a few years, says a controversial geologist. And alternative technologies aren't ready yet

DEFFEYES HAS REACHED a conclusion with far-reaching consequences for the entire industrialized world. So far-reaching that many of his colleagues in the field of petroleum geology dismiss it. The conclusion is this: in somewhere between two and six years from now, worldwide oil production will peak. After that, chronic shortages will become a way of life. The 100-year reign of King Oil will be over. And there will be nothing that President George W. Bush or Saudi princes or the invisible hand of the marketplace will be able to do about it. "There's nothing we could conceivably do now that would have much of an effect on the oil supply for at least 10 years," says Deffeyes.

Already, Saudi Arabia is the only oil-producing country that doesn't sell as much as it can pump. That fact has allowed the Saudis to dominate global markets, but they can't offset the shortages yet to come. Pumping at maximum capacity, they would add less than 4 percent to the world supply. Nor is technology likely to offer a way out. Energy companies, says Deffeyes, invested billions of dollars in the past 30 years to improve their ability to discover and extract oil, and it's unlikely that any breakthroughs in the offing would significantly change the equation. Technology would help eke out the hardest-to-reach reserves, but the curve would still fall. "What would it take to get another hump in the curve, with a peak farther out?" says Deffeyes. "There would have to be another kind of oil field altogether. And there's no evidence that such a thing exists."

Black Blade: Discussion of Hubbert's Peak. Fairly good article that described the situation well.

UsulHipplebeck re-phrased to seek insight#730054/9/02; 00:52:56

Would you not think that if certain countries besides England were going to do a central bank gold auction, they would be smart enough to do it like the Swiss or something? Why announce it? Why not just sell it through the normal markets without any fuss?
AndúrilUsul?#730064/9/02; 01:48:05

Why announce? Among reasons of "REASSURANCE" previously suggested and not now to be repeated, this FACT also remains: the POLITICAL PROCESS when conducted properly requires this "etiquette" so the perma-whiners must look elsewhere to cry foul if they are to cry with legitimacy.

Case dismissed! A familiar sound. Do you follow?

miner49erCavan Man @ 72976 - Paper Gold #730074/9/02; 08:02:21

Dear Sir CM... I had to weigh in on this topic after reading your post. You stated: "So, if you are a large paper gold holder/player and your paper gold is in your portfoilio to hedge against a variety of risk; and, further; if you see that in light of various and sundry current events which would normally support a significantly higher gold price, even a modest + 10% or so; do you exercise good judgment and prudence and sell those same paper instruments because they are not delivering what you paid for? Is this how the bifurcation of the market might unfold?"

What you say has validity for certain players, but it calls to my attention what is a significant mis-perception of the contract gold markets, and why so many find their action bewildering. Sir timbervision used the term counter-intuitive, when describing this type of activity, where the metal goes up, but associated paper instruments go down. I think it's not so much that their behavior is counter-intuitive, as it is this mis-apprehension of the nature of these markets in respect to this. Once gaining the additional perspective, it should be perfectly understandable, the plausibility of this seemingly contrary action. Indeed, it should now appear to be..., intuitive...

Not out of the Woods, yet...

Permit me to indulge a discussion of Bretton Woods as a back drop. In Bretton Woods, a system was set up in which the U.S. promised to retain a fixed convertibility to gold, while other signatories would fix their exchange rate to the U.S. dollar. This created an odd relationship, where the U.S. theoretically would have its monetary policy checked by the other Bretton Woods signatories. The U.S., using a mix of gold and their own debt as reserves, would expand or contract according to a determined gold reserve ratio. When they expanded, the additional currency would find its way overseas by virtue of a trade deficit. If the central banks perceived the dollar expansion excessive, or became pressured by the inflation the U.S. was exporting, they could purchase U.S. gold from the Treasury with these excess dollars. This lowered the U.S. gold reserves, and put pressure on the reserve ratio that the U.S. targeted. In response, theoretically, the U.S. would slow down on the expansion until an appropriate reserve ratio was again met.

Likewise, were the U.S. to contract too severely, thereby reducing currency supply, this would manifest itself overseas in deflationary pressure. In response, the foreign banks could sell gold back to the Treasury for dollars. This would pressure the U.S. to reverse course, as they were now holding excessive gold relative to their targeted ratio. Once again expanding, this would relieve the deflationary pressure in the foreign countries by re-introducing more dollars to their reserve systems.

In both cases, the gold operations were performed to pressure U.S. monetary policy, in whose hands (by the design of Bretton Woods) was their monetary fate.

What was discovered, of course, was that if one is big and powerful enough, and also retains control of the very asset being used as a counterweight to their policies, this entity can and will eventually do what they jolly-well please. And so it was in the U.S., in the 60s. Considering Viet Nam, Johnson's "Great Society" initiatives, and importantly, the dramatic increase in real economic growth during that phase, tremendous upward pressure was exerted upon the gold ratio. And the U.S. expanded its currency with an attitude...

A basket of currencies, or a handbasket to...?

Ultimately in 1971, the U.S. defaulted on its obligations under Bretton Woods, and broke the fixed convertibility gold link to the dollar. So what have we gained by this rehash? What I want to bring to the forefront is the nature of the monetary operations involved. Typically, we have been given the impression that the gold draw down that began escalating in the late 60s was solely motivated by fears that the U.S. dollar was going to hell-in-a-handbasket. And the banks were furiously acquiring as much gold as possible, so as not to be left holding the basket... While on one level, this certainly has merit, I think we should look at this a bit differently.

Part of the foreign bank action was simply responding, with monetary operations, a la the designs of Bretton Woods. Dollar expansion, resulting in trade deficits (surpluses in the opposite countries), resulted in currency expansion in these countries from the excess reserves. These countries in large part were simply reacting in the prescribed fashion, seeking gold purchases to alter the U.S. reserve ratio, and thus pressure the U.S. to slow down expansion (subsequently alleviating the inflationary pressure in their own countries).

Understanding this, and making a distinction here between a motivation of action within scripted protocol, and a frantic, desperation drawdown is important as we progress in this discussion to the current environment. While there was undeniably worrisome expansion of U.S. debt during this era to pay for Johnson's social programs, and the war in Viet Nam, there was equally as substantial a period of real economic growth. This was catalyzed in large part by new technologies, and the new usages they found for oil. As FOA points out, the U.S. was able to derive exponential productivity gains from a barrel of oil with these new technologies, and was expanding debt currently on the basis of projecting this extensive new real-growth potential far into the future.

This did not escape the attention of the foreign central banks, who in light of this awareness, were most likely not so much afraid of a U.S. dollar/economy collapse, as they were the unknowns of a gold de-linkage, and what that augured. FOA posits that Nixon's default wasn't to stop gold hemorrhaging, but to force price inflation. Under Bretton Woods, the foreign banks were trying to contain their inflation by the established process of purchasing gold to alter U.S. reserves. Nixon, and the U.S., on the other hand, wanted some price inflation -- particularly in oil. This would encourage domestic producers to bring reserves online that were uneconomic, when competing with cheaper Mid-East oil at current prices. The bet on the part of the U.S., was that they could sustain the price inflation, and hence contain it from becoming monstrous, because of the buffer they anticipated in the real-growth potential of oil with its new technology uses.

In summary, the gold operations of this period were not the impulsive or reactive behavior of a bunch of idiots, but more a combination of carrying out designed prescriptions within a well articulated framework, and the strategic exploitation of the system for larger geo-political purposes. With this perspective, let's look at where we are now...

Seeing the forest for the trees...

It is important to make clear that gold has always, does currently, and always will have economic uses within our financial/monetary systems. Gold's purpose is not to be squirreled away in a vault, never to see the light of day again. Gold is an asset. Assets, to be useful as assets, are to be allowed deployment under appropriate conditions. If conditions for some group warrant nothing more than acquisition and holding, so be it... If, as under Bretton Woods, the U.S. would buy and sell gold at the demand of foreign banks in some coordinated scheme to manage reserves, so be it. If the banks exchanged it with oil producers on the side for cheap oil, so be it. If the U.S. did away with much of its holdings in order to gain some strategic objective, or to even buy time in a crisis, so be it. The purpose here is not to give commentary on the rectitude of this or that action, but to point out that gold is used. It is used to achieve bigger objectives. (And sometimes, these objectives may be the procurement of...more gold...)

Why do contract markets exist in the first place? They exist to provide buyers and sellers a place to contract, in various ways, the future purchase or sale of some thing, for whatever reasons. Chiefly, they help participants smooth out rough spots, mitigate uncertainties, or stabilize cash flows -- they are a medium for the exchange of risk, for the principal purpose of promoting stability and predictability to participants. Speculators are ancillary to the process.

Typically, a large, sophisticated institution participates in the gold markets for the reasons of portfolio balance, hedging, or "insurance." They do not, participate in this context, for investment or speculation. These markets are an evolution of the foregoing Bretton Woods arrangement. Where official gold is no longer "ballast" to stabilize the currency, these markets in an evolved way, exist mainly to accomplish the same purpose. These large, institutionalized participants are in need of some means to keep the currency, in which they have instrumented their substantial affairs, at some predictable value.

The main reason behind the U.S. allowing those under their jurisdiction to again privately hold gold bullion, was as a necessary pre-requisite for U.S. based corporations, institutions, et al., to undertake the task of gold management on their own. Those participants, whose business strategies demanded outright acquisition, would come to realize that the marketplace differed decidedly from the Treasury's bullion window, as any display of large, outright demand, would gun the price, causing unwanted volatility. In order to take some of the pressure off physical demand, an outlet was necessary for those who's purpose in acquiring gold, was simply for the effects of gold. These entities did not need to, and typically did not want to possess it outright, other than for its current stabilizing properties. If the stability could be provided without holding the metal, but just a derivative of the metal (deriving the desired properties and packaging them in some instrument), then more gold would be freed up for those who really demanded it. (Like oil producers, if we follow Another/FOA's reasoning.) One might view this as a means to obtain/retain the "value suspension" attributes of the currency, that we discussed a while back.

For this purpose, contract markets are ideally suited. Hence, a dichotomy of interpretations now exist for gold. It is at once a reserve asset of the monetary system (although technically no longer a monetary asset). It is simultaneously, a commodity, for the purposes of its exchange in the futures markets. This is by design, and this design was to generate stability in the financial arena.

If I have to do business in a world, where all currencies' values are dependent on the policy and performance of the U.S. dollar, and all I want to do is protect myself against problems arising from the currency, or its supporting economy, then the functioning dynamics of a contract market may suit me just fine. I view my contract expenditures as a cost of doing business -- something like insurance premiums, if you will. Contract expirations with no pay off, are not met with groans, but relief. Just as when I insure my property, I don't relish the occasion of an "insurable event," so I can say I got my money's worth, so here too, I would as soon that things remain likewise stable. I only want to have some insurance, just in case. In the same vein, as I insure my property against fire and flood, I also don't expect the policy to be of much use in the event of a nuclear war. It's not the purpose of the policy, and if I want coverage against more severe cataclysms, I expect to pay more for the service. Perhaps much more.

Each entity participating has different reasons for participating. They too, have different levels of "coverage" that they desire to obtain. In life insurance, some may insure their lives at $250,000, and determine this to be adequate in light of their anticipated needs, and a cost/benefit analysis to premiums paid. At the other end of the spectrum, a successful CEO of a large corporation may be insured in the tens of millions, the company considering the substantially greater cost worth the expense. In each of these cases, though, the preferred outcome is to not ever need to exercise the policy. If, however, the CEO is replaced by another, there is now no longer a need to keep insuring the former CEO's life, insofar as the business is concerned. The impact of his living or dying has become irrelevant to the business.

A river runs through it...

In FOA's introductory post, he uses an illustration of a river's flow to portray the political flows of time and history as characterized by our perspective. Up close, the haphazard movement of the water can lead one to make all sorts of improper conclusions, based entirely on an incomplete point of view. From far above, the direction is clear. Despite all obstacles and impediments, the course of the river is endlessly, unstoppably toward the sea. It is this observation, FOA tells us, that reflects the inspiration behind the design of a new monetary system for this age. Instead of fighting the natural flow of mankind, as the restrictions of a fixed gold standard do, why not rather design a system, that does not inefficiently spend such effort and resources going against the course of human nature? Further, the pent up force from centuries of fixing the gold price, have yet to be realized. They will one day be released with incomprehensible fury. Why not have a system in place that rides the wave to one's advantage, instead of one that insists on further damming the flow?

It is in this analogy, that a host of other issues can be addressed. Were not the foreign central banks furious over the 71 default, and wanted to make sure they got a fair portion of U.S. gold for all the dollars they held? Partly, yes, but this is to look at one arbitrary portion of the haphazard swirls, eddies and other disturbances found, when getting too close a view. What is important regarding this perspective, is that this activity is energized by, and carried upon, the bigger, overall flow of world affairs, and not the other way around. Similarly we can look at the issue of a "cabal" suppressing the gold price. What we should look at, at least for the purposes of this discussion, is not whether or not one exists, but why one can exist in this framework so successfully. It is not enough to merely say one exists and operates solely at the behest of governmental discretion, as such a dynamic would not of itself be able to control all the world's gold movements. It would be necessary for such an effort to find success, that it leverage the power of the natural coursing of this river, to obtain its ends. And in the case of the "cabal," it is instructive to note in what context they find it expedient to work. If their purpose is to suppress the price of gold, why not use a market environment that is conducive to, and in large part exists, to advance a stable price environment, hence the modern contract markets. This is obviously why they did not choose to implement some strategy in the spot markets. Why swim upstream?

The advent of the euro brings with it an alternative to the dollar. Importantly, it is an alternative to the dollar concept. Each day, more entities, who participate in the current gold markets in order to provide dollar "insurance," hedging and portfolio balance, will find they can achieve the same business objectives, more efficiently (i.e., at less cost) with the euro. They should be able to do this, by system facilitated, outright gold ownership, within a currency structure that is designed to work best (find stability) in a freely priced gold setting. All this without the inefficiencies introduced by the current markets: counterparty risk, political surprises, and the hideous complexity of the derivatives game -- all in an effort to foster an illusion of gold price (and by extension currency) stability, which is the requirement of the current paradigm.

Down and down she goes..., where she stops, nobody knows...

As this transition occurs, participants begin refinancing their business operations in euros as their international currency of choice. What this means, is that each day fewer and fewer participants are found in the dollar gold markets. They no longer need to insure against loss of life and accident for the former CEO. Hence, fewer long contracts ("policies") are purchased with every passing day. What's more, these former participants will also sell their unneeded existing contracts, further exerting downward pressure on the price. The only people buying them will be the long speculators, who still foresee price action in these markets as one day discovering the real price of gold. Instead, they will likely be met with wave after wave of institutional longs, leaving the arena. On top of this, the emerging divergence between the paper price, and the spot price will, by this type of action, be further exacerbated. Those who were insuring against "fire and flood," (gold at maybe $400, or $600), will now see imminent catastrophe on the horizon, and realize that their "insurance policies" are not going to be of any use, when this storm hits. The policies they purchased were not designed to cover this class of event. The long spec views this action, and interprets an imminent short squeeze, with the long awaited price discovery that saves his bets, while the institutional players are getting the heck out of Dodge -- and taking all their market volume with them...

On top of this, you will likely see one last assault by the shorts, who now smell blood. Following in the wake of these exiting institutional longs, they will make one final, lunging thrust into the heart. And who will stop them?

All the while the price of the physical metal begins a long and sustained bull run, and those who bet on this with paper leverage are the ones left holding the aforementioned handbasket...

Hopefully, if anyone has stayed with me, you can see this now from a different perspective. What I've tried to contribute, in addition to what Another/FOA have laid out all along, is an emphasis on the simple business aspects that drives market behavior. The financial considerations of gold, for these large institutional participants, are very technical and sterile -- devoid of the tensions of speculative interest. This is what the contract markets are suited for, and designed for. Speculators delve into them to find some angle to work, and work it for a killing, and while playing an important part in the mix, are again, ancillary to their essential functions. This is true of gold or gasoline, palladium or pork-bellies. These markets exist most happily when there is nothing more going on than yawning, hum-drum, monotonous stability, and the implicit lack of price movement that this brings with it.

Best to all ,

Jin-YinFYI - Elliot Wave #730084/9/02; 08:06:36

To stay within the guidelines of etiquette here, someone well known in the big world of the Internet is offering its annual free week or great commentary and counts starting tomorrow. Should be some information on gold and silver.


CoBra(too)Don't disturb the Waters - Or not a Ripple across the Pond! #730094/9/02; 08:51:11

Gata's Chris Powell reported the following and I'll leave it to him to follow up with the article:
Last week you could read about GATA in The Wall
Street Journal ... as long as you were reading the
paper's European edition, which carried a longer
version of John Connor's Dow Jones Newswires
story about the dismissal of Reg Howe's lawsuit.
For some reason the paper did not consider the
lawsuit and the gold price suppression issue to
be newsworthy on Wall Street itself, for the story
never made the United States edition.

Don't ripple the waters at home comes to mind, though we've
diligently reported the facts - somewhere, that is - or is it? - Strange? ... cb2

EconoclastGreaaat Post Miner! I stayed with you.#730104/9/02; 09:00:22

"The main reason behind the U.S. allowing those under their jurisdiction to again privately hold gold bullion, was as a necessary pre-requisite for U.S. based corporations, institutions, et al., to undertake the task of gold management on their own"

An idea that I have not seen expressed, yet it recently hit me like a slap in the face in my own private ruminations. The implications for the motivations are profound.

I have long been contemplating an essay on why confiscation is not a viable possibility. The ideas have been below the surface and have not yet made their way to my fingers. Your quote occured to me while thinking on that subject. When you realize that the change had nothing to do with wanting to help out the goldbug, the importance is put in its proper perspective.
Truly, gold bullion is the gift of our lifetime by an otherwise "taking" government. The allowing of gathering up of crumbs by those whose vision has let them see the truth. Only crumbs though--try to find a billion dollars worth of bullion!
I guess this goes to the heart of what was going to be my argument against a future confiscation. Those in the know, who have been quietly taking advantage of this gift for their own personal protection are not going to let it be taken back by the controllers they control.

NomadVenezuela Oil War#730114/9/02; 09:18:21

Hugo vs. the world ...
JCTexBlack Blade (04/09/02; 00:04:22MT - msg#: 73002)#730124/9/02; 09:50:31

Several years ago, I asked a good friend, and very good economist, what he thought the price of oil would do.

He answered by saying, "Whatever the King wants it to."

PippinWhat's the known reason for gold's pullback ?#730134/9/02; 10:57:12

Sorry to come back with a naÔve and very basic question again, but I'd like to know why gold has gone down for a couple of days again, in spite of ME still being an issue of concern, japanese people still worried, the Enron scandal spreading and impacting large banks and brokers with claims reaching the billions, and (last but not least) oil-related embargos.
Is there any embryo of rationale here? A few weeks weeks ago, we had an even less explosive cocktail, and gold jumped like a grasshoper.
So - what did I miss? What's the reason for gold's retreat?

sector@pippin...The Kernal of Reason#730144/9/02; 11:20:56

...for the current mini-pullback is that the cabal is selling to beat the band in order to produce a negative feed back.

In other words, since the tyraditional macroeconomic climate is conducive to gold's rise, the cabal can't allow that impression to take root so they sell.

One can trade this counter-intuitive situation if one wishes to risk being out of place in a breakout.

It's why oil went down. The SPR has been sold to keep poo down at just the time when it should go up. Sharon doesn't sound like a happy camper this afternoon. He may just resort to blasting suspected weapons dumps with tank rounds instead of troup searches.

Recognizing the cabal's price management derivative tactics is the difficult part in all this. See...they only have so much gold and oil to sell. Black blade has shown us that the Vens are running at 50% in their refineries so you can be absolutely certain of much higher just can't see higher oil prices today.

The derivatives buffer is a limited thing.

Cavan Man@miner49er#730154/9/02; 11:49:52

"Hey, wait a minute fellas; we've got NEVADA 'ya know!" Hello. Thanks so much for your (always) thoughtful response. I took the fork you might be travelling a long time ago. The global monetary system has been patched up over and again for over thirty years maintaining the status quo. The world needs and in fact must have a new system. I beleive the world will have a new system. I'd just like to get it behind me and move on. While the transition will be bumpiest here, the US will do well. After all, there's a lot of gold in them that hills (of NV).
Cavan Mantest#730164/9/02; 12:11:32

Black BladePipeline Brigade #730174/9/02; 12:52:23

President Bush is arming troops to protect Occidental Petroleum in Colombia. What next?


April 8 issue -- Is George W. Bush using war as an extension of his oil policy? It looked that way in February, when Washington announced a $700 million aid package for the Andean region, largely to fight the twin threats of guerrilla war and drugrunning that threaten the area. As is usual, half the money will go to Colombia, but with a new twist: $98 million for training and equipping a Colombian brigade of around 2,000 soldiers to protect the 772-kilometer Cano Limon pipeline. Used to transport crude oil to the Caribbean coast from a field pumped by Occidental Petroleum of California in partnership with the Colombian state oil company, the pipeline is a favorite target of rebel saboteurs.

Black Blade: There has been talk that another oil and gas pipeline would be built in Afghanistan to transport petroleum from the Caspian Sea region. Again the name Occidental pops up. The problem with the Afghanistan pipeline proposal is that it will require $Billions to protect as it is longer, through several hostile regions, will require payoffs to every piss ant warlord in the region, and a permanent presence of about 3 US Army divisions to protect. Not a very likely outcome. Even the Colombian brigade proposal is a tough proposition as they will be fighting FARC, and a number of left-wing and right-wing paramilitaries 24 hours a day over 772 kilometers. The war in the Gulf (1990) was about oil, not because we have such a cozy warm feeling for the Emir and his family. We in the US had better get used to the idea of using the US military to protect our foreign petroleum supply.

GoldflyTest#730184/9/02; 13:00:44

"Test" Just a test.
Pippin@Sector - thanks but...#730194/9/02; 13:09:07

I still have problems with this explanation: I just cannot imagine that anybody, any entity, any cartel has enough money to play this little game for so long and at such a level, especially if we consider that we are not talking about one metal only, but about silver as well, plus oil plus maybe other commodities.
In addition, all this "cheating" is done in one direction only: making price(s) to decrease. This means that "they" can never reconstitute a long position, otherwise it would reverse the trend. This implies that a colossal "golden faucet" has to exist at the top of all this to allow a continous flow of sales.

Nobody has infinite resources - and infinite resource seem to be what's needed for a deception of this magnitude.

I accept I'm only at the beginning of my reading of the "gold trail", so I still ignore most of the mechanisms involved, which have been probably discussed here many times. Sorry. And I'm not that strong at the level of the derivatives yet (although I'm working on it :-).

But I must confess that this looks too big to be true.
On the other hand, if this is not true, I really don't understand how POG can decrease in such a moment.

On the other hand (makes lots of hands), if a story like Enron was possible at such a level, well...

I'd like to know. I really would like to know.

Gandalf the WhiteHello, Goldfly#730204/9/02; 13:13:22

Goldfly (4/9/02; 13:00:44MT - msg#: 73018)
OK Goldfly -- The TEST worked.
NOW, please send us a SONG !

miner49ertest#730214/9/02; 13:13:45

miner49erbingo...#730224/9/02; 13:14:37

it's [a glitch] in the url link, for you IE users who are perplexed by the strange behavior...
Black BladeJapanese gold demand no flash in the pan#730234/9/02; 13:15:50


Japanese demand for bullion has cooled since peaking in February but analysts say the metal's recent sparkle as a safe-haven asset is no flash in the pan. The government pulled off some fancy footwork to shore up stock prices before the fiscal year ended in March, heading off a financial melt-down, but investors are still finding plenty of reasons to hoard.

Concerns that violence in the West Bank could erupt into a wider regional war and trigger an Arab oil embargo shoved spot gold prices to seven-week highs last week. "Gold's in the spotlight," said Akio Shibata, chief economist at Marubeni Research Institute. "The Middle East crisis is driving up oil prices, raising fears of inflation."

The surge was reminiscent of early February, when Japan's decision to scrap full guarantees for term deposits in the event of a bank failure prompted Japanese savers to pile money into "safe" assets as the April 1 deadline approached. That flow of wealth helped to drive bullion prices above $300 an ounce for the first time in two years.

"We've named this phenomenon not a gold boom but a money shift", said Hitoshi Kosai, general manager of the precious metals division at Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K., Japan's largest bullion retailer. He said investors would probably continue diversifying portfolios in the run-up to next April, when the government is due to end guarantees on current deposits as well.

With the yen in spitting distance of four-and-a-half year lows against the dollar, today's gold prospectors are less bargain-conscious. "Sales in March are similar to the January level, down from February's peak," said Masahiro Arai, assistant manager of the precious metals section of Tokuriki Honten Co Ltd, Japan's second-biggest bullion house. "But they're still five times greater than they were a year ago."

Black Blade: The "Japanese Gold Rush" appears to still be moving along. Japan's problems are far from over and without Japanese government intervention in the Nikkei and the banking sector the Japanese economy would crash into oblivion. Obviously Gold buying in Japan should remain rather strong.

Black BladePrivate investors return to gold #730244/9/02; 13:31:48


In 2001 gold's perceived 'safe haven' or 'hedge against risk' status, together with lower interest rates on currency assets, saw individual investments in the precious metal stage a strong return in international markets. World Gold Council senior economic adviser Jill Leyland tells Mining Weekly that there are several factors contributing to the resurgence of interest in gold.

She notes that the past 12 months have seen a steady upward trend in the US dollar gold price, bucking the long-term decline in the precious-metal price that had existed in the markets since 1996. The Far and Middle East experienced an upturn in gold activity, the US saw a rise in gold coin buying, and markets in Europe stopped dishoarding gold.

While the immediate effects of the attacks (9-11) have worn off, Leyland refers to a lingering aftertaste for gold that still permeates the markets. Following the Enron collapse, doubt surrounding equities has also diverted investor confidence towards gold, while the euro and the yen do not inspire much confidence, limiting the choice for investors about where to put their money.

Market concern for central bank sales has also been dissipated following the Washington Agreement. Leyland states that it is hoped that the five-year Washington Agreement, which expires at the end of September 2004, will be renewed in some form. The Bank for International Settlement head of gold markets Giacomo Panizzutti is on record as saying that central banks will renew the agreement in some form.

"In addition to all the factors already mentioned there is an inherent concern for the Japanese economy and in particular the financial stability of a number of banks," explains Leyland. Japanese individuals have traditionally kept more than half of their wealth in the form of bank deposits and from next April the government guarantee on bank deposit insurance, which currently covers 100% of bank deposits, is going to be limited to ten-million yen on time deposits and the same from April 2003 on cheque deposits. With the financial stability of banks in question and limited returns from interest, the Japanese will look for alternative investment opportunities.

Black Blade: Interesting commentary. More and more Gold has been getting more positive press. This may change some as Gold has recently pulled below the $300/oz. Level, yet demand remains strong (because it's a bargain?). I am curious, now we find out that Louis Rukeyser will snivel and whine on CNBC on Friday nights at 8:30 pm. I can almost imagine that he will sniffle and sneer as he spews against Gold (as he did before he was fired by PBS). Even so, Gold has broken loose and has gained acceptance in the investment community. Heck, we just might even hear of money managers recommending a minimum 5% investment in everyones portfolio like they did a few years ago. Hmmm...

Black BladeWill Gold......#730254/9/02; 13:47:22

Will Gold Ever Rally?

Yes Because: Unsustainable supply/demand imbalance

Will Gold Ever Rally?

Yes Because: Unsustainable short position

Will Gold Ever Rally?

Yes Because: Unsustainable low inflation

Will Gold Ever Rally?

Yes Because: Unsustainable U.S. dollar

Will Gold Ever Rally?

Yes Because: Unsustainable pricing for financial assets

Will Gold Ever Rally?

Yes Because: Unsustainable gold price manipulation

Will Gold Ever Rally?

Yes Because: Gold is money again

Black Blade: Nice graphs and bullet lists emphasizing Gold as an investment from Seabridge (a Gold miner). I had to check a couple of time to make sure this wasn't a competitor. A nice synopsis for Gold as portfolio insurance and investment.

uponroofPOG ...... war premium weakness#730264/9/02; 14:00:24

POG is all about the middle east right now

Withdrawls and related (now discounted) embargos are allowing some ease.

Bush will interpret this momentary easing as an opportunity to invade Iraq....possibly in the next few weeks?

POG will interpret this a a chance to breakout 307.

So as we lament the easing of POG understand that it is only temporary in the now permanent upward channel.

USAGOLDGandalf, Goldfly. . .#730274/9/02; 14:32:12

OK. I vote for a song too.

What's with the purple copy or is it just my computer?

As Murphy would have it, Randy, on road today. Are we having a problem?

BelgianEnjoyed Miner49er Posting. Thanks Sir !#730284/9/02; 14:33:51

The Gold-Manipulation by the government (Goldstandard) being privatized in 1971 ! In analogy with the government organizing wars to allow private dollar-colonialism.
Ever since 1913 > 1933 > 1971 >...The cycles of domestic (USA) permanent dollar creation, created the need to export these dollar-excesses abroad to newly conquered colonies.
First the development of the americas itself...1918/1945-WWI-WWII, the euro-dollars...1970-ties, the petrodollars and now Eurasia from out of Afghanistan/Pakistan.

The USA is profitting from the present weakening, Euroland leadership/unity. Not in the least due to the ridiculous double edged sword of veto-right in voring. The present geopolitical events are nefast for a united stance from Euroland against the US modus operandi. It will take time to overcome this. But we need A/FOA's help for enlightment on how this dis-unity is affecting the progres on the euro/Gold/oil-concept. Thanks miner49er.

All-Correction of previous error : It is not Anglogold but AngloAmerican that is issuing convertable bonds ! Has nothing to do (most probably) with AU's desire for elimination of its 500 tonnes hedged gold. Sorry for the mistake.

CoBra(too)@ uponroof#730294/9/02; 14:40:28

As it seems Sir, there is little hope of withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Westbank. After leaving 2 towns others have been invaded.

In Jenin a bloody battle killed 150 - 200 believed Hamas or Jihad fighters, while 13 Israeli soldiers were killed by an ambush of a suicide bomber in the narrow streets of its old city center. Nablus is totally devastated and Bethlehem is still besieged. The Vatican urges the Isrealis to spare the spiritual capital of 3 world religions. The ME, and Palestina is more of a powder keg than ever before.

Today, Israelis are commemorating internationally the Holocaust Day (-Vienna held a symposium for two days -and it was devastating to observe the total hatred even among highly intellectual participants).

Sharon said that Israelis agree to the need to defend themselves. Until the goals of purging terror are not reached the Israeli soldiers will not leave the West Bank territory. - While Colin Powell is not expected to arrive in Israel before Friday, the populace of the arab Capitals are rioting against Israel and the US.

... And then there is the OIL! - an incendiary mixture - though POG will be driven by its fundamentals, which are realized more by the day.

Gold - get you some, as Aristotle used to say. BTW, the same promised some insights recently - regards cb2

R PowellUSAGold#730304/9/02; 16:07:24

What you're seeing as purple copy I'm seeing as a yellowish-green. What is discolored is also underlined. I thought maybe you were experimenting with a new Timothy Leary look for the forum. I believe most goldbugs are more likely to be "creatures of habit" (not the religious habit) and would not take well to psychodelic postings although changing all type to green when POG is higher and red when lower comes to mind.
Does anyone know a Ned W. Schmidt, CFA, CEBS? I'm always looking for information but always leary (not Timothy) of paying in advance for unknown quality.
My analysis of both the stock and precious metals markets as compared to the markets movements has me totally dumbfounded once again. This is not an unusual condition for my brain, I'll survive. I guess I need to study both the individual trees and also take some wide-angle lens pictures of the forest. Patience, Rich, patience.

Golden BearPippin (msg#: 73019)@Sector - thanks but... #730314/9/02; 16:11:23

Greetings Pippin,

please consider that in any market, the buying and selling pressure ebbs and flows. The drop in gold prices may not necessarily be excessive selling by the cabal, but rather minor selling which has taken advantage of buyers backing off and taking a breather for whatever reason. It is these opportune times that the cabal can really press the pog lower without expending too much ammunition.

Most participants in the markets do not realize that said markets are auction markets - the price of the commodity is pressed higher by buyers until a point is reached where price has become too high relative to perceived value and the buyers move to the sidelines as the sellers move in to take advantage of higher prices. This pushes the price lower and eventually reaches a point where again perceived value is higher than the current price, and the buyers move back in... this is what creates the ebb and flow that we witness. It is the battle of perceptions of buyers versus sellers.

It must be taken into consideration that many see gold only as another commodity, and therefore it is easy to see that market players "preceive" gold's price to be too far above its value, causing them to move to the sidelines irrespective of how we goldbugs perceive gold very differently.


Cavan Man@miner49er#730324/9/02; 16:13:41

Sir miner: I truly enjoyed your thoughtful response. It's very rewarding playing your straight man. Before I clean the dishes and cook dinner (renaissance man that I am), I wanted to get off a quick not.

You and I might be travelling the same trail. I made my bet a long time ago and am sticking to it thru thick and thin. The simple reason is change is needed after a thirty year period of band aids.

I watch with interest and comfort as the US fights the good fight knowing in the final analysis that Nevada is the 51st state in the lower 48. Best2U...CM

PS: MY only "paper" bet is the very best Jr. which happens to be in Nevada of all places.

Cavan ManPS Sir Miner49er#730334/9/02; 16:15:52

That's a quick "note" and I do realize that we only have 50 states in the US. It's been a rough day. The AG economy has been brutal as of late.
R PowellB.B. #730344/9/02; 16:20:11

Thanks for the seabridgegold link. I know what you mean about wondering who they are. I wandered around for a while, read different stuff, met the directors and bigwigs and then left, all without anyone trying to sell me anything! Who are those guys?
Nice article. You have a knack for finding them. Good work! I nominate you for the star of the day. M.K. can now post that star in any color you want. I got yellowish-green myself. It was probably an attempt at Gold.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")Pippin, why gold down#730354/9/02; 16:51:47

All the factors combined in the supply / demand equation. Every item in the store ends with the price "something.99" or .98. Over that mark is a heavy psychological resistance. Sharon saying about peace and the belief that the US can "whip" peace on the mideast conflict... spurious notions not based on facts or reason. Then we have the banksters shorting gold hard in NY. What we should not forget is that in NY we got some good bull runs of 4-5$ a day. That to me was the Jewish financial arm pre-empting the Israeli assault and the went long strong enough to KO the Cabal in overtime. The financial strength of Israel is in NY and some millionares/billionares of Jewish heritage around the world. When they go into gold, it's a big move. But can it be sustained? Once the longs are all long it's the shorters who try to shake them out. The ice is melting under goldstocks below 299 so we may see the other edge of the sword. I judge the bottom by the shakey spike zones occuring and they represent "hammers" and doji's which indicate shorts getting burned by new longs. They haven't shown up yet but soon they will. Gold longs will hit like a bluefish frenzy and the duration of the rally should be brief it it starts off with a short squeeze. We want shorts to pile on to panic later as they get out of Dodge. $300 gold is the Caldera. I don't think we will ever see 280 gold forever, history like this 60 year implosion of a credit cycle is a one time event and that is why it's such a fluke to try to predict its unraveling. Bubbles upon bubbles, doll hairs stuffed in jars from the Baja to West Russia. We are in the game of leveraged faith and ploys of disinformation. Greenspan is not young. Ponder his absence in the faith-in-fiat equation. This circus has ringleaders and they are all brilliant. But markets are more powerful than governments. Rome was led to debase its currency. Pun intended.
CoBra(too)GR2 -#730364/9/02; 17:13:31

You haven't read "Crashmaker" yet - Or have you?
Cheers - cb2

mikalRe: Rome and POG#730374/9/02; 17:29:34

Currency debasement is ongoing since FRN's debutted. And before that throughout history, which does repeat itself over and over and ... Shakespeare's words resound yet again: "O mighty Caesar! Dost thou lie so low? Are all thy conquests, glories, triumphs, spoils, Shrunk to this little measure? Fare thee well. I know not, gentlemen, what you intend, Who else must be let blood, who else is rank." -Antony to Brutus and Cassius, Act III, Scene I, JULIUS CAESAR Before Colon Powell visits the Middle East on Friday, it feels to me as if someone will be sacrificed again, 9-11 style.
HOOSIER GOLDBUGMy two cents worth!#730384/9/02; 17:43:07

With a lot of people lamenting about the decline of the price of GOLD, I have to remember the immortal/mortal words of my 23 year old economics graduate son:
"You GOLDBUGS have got it made; this is the best of times for you!
a.)You are smart enough/able to follow the words/instructions of ANOTHER and FRIEND OF ANOTHER!
b.) You can buy pre-1933 Gold Coins just above the melt/production price with the strong dollar policy.
c.) BUSH will help to keep up the pressure to keep oil prices down/manipulated for cheap pay at the pump gas prices.
d.)You can hedge your paper fiat exposure at bargain basement/fire sale prices. No Pressure Form INFLATION.
e.) Deflation everywhere else for buying/consuming your heart's desire.
I think he is completely right with his point of view!

mikalRe: Powell#730394/9/02; 17:57:40

Should be more precisely: "As Colon Powell prepares to visit the Middle East this Friday, someone, somewhere, perhaps Powell himself, will be sacrificed again, 9-11 style. It feels to many, as though the world is at a critical juncture, a calm before the storm. The USA alone faces unprecedented crisis and danger, ranging from domestic military vulnerability to social and financial fragility. Perhaps the time is now. With USA having an unserviceable deficit, faced with shrinking foreign funds inflow, credibility, and prestige. Oil interests, financiers, corporate oligarchs worldwide would benefit from another major calamity, enabling them to secretly shift funds, consolidate military, financial, political power, reap windfall profits from guaranteed market movements, and cover their trails.
mikal@GR2#730404/9/02; 18:22:24

I liked your point about goods ending in .99 or .98. And, your thoughts: "Markets are more powerful than governments. Rome was led to devalue to currency. Pun intended." Yes, we cannot fool with Mother Nature, can we?
mikalPost should read:#730414/9/02; 18:26:48

"...Rome was led to devalue its [not "to"] currency."
RobotGuyPardon me for not paying attention but,...#7304204/09/02; 18:58:18

Didn't someone ask in this forum a short time ago if there were any charts or indications of the amount, or volume that trades hands during daily AU swapping? Was there ever a response?
One thing I can tell you, but it's paper related. All you paper haters close your eyes! The volume of many popular precious metals mining companies has been very low during these few days of mild AU pullback. Another thing that is very amusing to me is the number of outstanding shares compared to average volumes traded during busy days. I am sure there are a good number of investors who are quite aware that we're in for a decent advance in the values of precious metals whether or not they are willing to say it publicly or not. When? In our lifetimes for sure. Tomorrow? Probably not, but I'm always up for a good surprise. Plus, if AU went through the roof tomorrow and made us all multi millionaires, who would come back to this marvelous forum for daily news and views?
I'm gonna miss you guys when I'm tourin' the world on my brand new Harley!!(Of course after the gold rush)



slingshotHoosier Goldbug#7304304/09/02; 19:00:45

Good time for Goldbugs

I'm in the shute, sitting on top of a 1600 pound bull named "GOLDIE". My Rope is tight around my leather gloves and I'm ready for the ride of my life. Let Him Loose!


HOOSIER GOLDBUGGOLDBUG RIDE!#7304404/09/02; 19:17:49

Slingshot, I have no doubt with your expertise and knowledge you will score all 11 out of 10 scores by the judges for your ability to ride that GOLD BULL, but
a.) Every Joesixpack in the stands will be gunning for you, so the bull may be the least of your concern.
b.) No fun when economic life is unmanageable, in utter chaos, just look at the pictures of the miserable people in Argentina in the streets, etc..
c.) You will be viewed as different, queer, unpatriotic by your government and may be forced to relocate.
I just want to continue to live this exciting/dull/mundane life of mine, strong dollar purchasing power fiat ponzi scheme, cheap gas, working my no real estate bubble bursting real estate appraisal practice, keep accumulating the physical for my two sons, and die, leaving to them to playout the consequences of the impending financial perfect storm. Guess I am a coward and do not want to face what is coming down the pipe.

slingshotHoosier Goldbug#7304504/09/02; 19:52:31

Looking through a different facet

Hoosier Goldbug just by being here proves your smarter than the average dude and far away from being a coward.And even I have a comfort zone. We both know the world is sick and we are making preparations for our children in the future. Gold is the best way. We also know that if we are going to get from here (present wealth) to there (stinking rich) something has to happen to POG. I knew there would be repercussions when I started accumulation but that is part of the game. I do enjoy putting away some stash. I'm not too worried about them gunning for me. Lets say they better give me a wide berth. I'm not moving and I'm one h-ll of a Patriotic person. So my friend think positive. My guess is they will be worried about covering their bottoms than thinking of us. ;o)


And so it shall be! Thanks!
R PowellRobotGuy#7304704/09/02; 20:12:56

Another item worthy of note in the paper trading game or Comex casino is that open interest (total number of contracts) in both gold and silver increased appreciably during the recent run higher. For silver this most recent run was from about $4.30/oz to $4.75/0z while open interest increased from approx. 66,000 to 78,000 contracts. What is noteworthy is that this open interest has not fallen off very much at all, at least, not yet. I interpret this as a good sign that there is strength supporting the market price.
Your comments on mining stock numbers would seem to confirm this. My gut feeling is that the momentum or trend followers have only just begun to enter precious metals so that many stock holders are long suffering believers less likely to abandon ship. Sometimes I think almost all the Drooy stock is owned by the guys next door. Many futures players will follow the price swings changing positions constantly but the resilience of the O.I. number does not confirm this yet. This is encouraging. At least, so far.

Ray PattenPippin...why can't Gold keep going up?#7304804/09/02; 20:22:49

I've discussed this before; I guess it's time to discuss it again. In the early 1990's, I noticed an unusual pattern in the open interest of Gold futures. The same pattern hasn't changed much to this day. According to the weekly committments of traders report, the commercial traders would get short the market on rallys and get long on breaks. The normal cycle is about 2 or 3 months. All the revelations of GATA have convinced me that the "commercials" are none other that the Exchange Stabilization Fund. So there are 2 manipulators in the Gold futures...the cabal and the ESF. History has proved to me that the ESF is only interested in stabilizing the market. It's the cabal that noticed the ESF doing that and tried to break the market since 1996. The ESF was very long at the bottom and accually helped make the bottom. Hopefully, the cabal is out of amo.

The situation now is that the ESF is very short...just doing their job. I like the way the market is acting under the circumstances. The market is very "bouncy", with obvious support on every break. If June Gold can hold 295 and basically stay in the 300 area for another week or 2, the cabal will have to reach to cover their shorts. The real fun will then begin.

HipplebeckPIPPIN, if I may,#7304904/09/02; 20:30:00

I've said it before and I'll say it again, it is the perception of inflation that is the number one influence on gold. Just watch how they are talking about the economy. If it looks like the economy is going to take off again, so will gold. If it looks like oh no, we are not out of this recession thing yet, then gold falls. Sure the tensions in the Middle East are having their influence, but EVERYONE knows about golds great rise in the eighties, and they know that it was inflation that did it. The only other thing that will get it to go way up is the perception of a complete financial breakdown in the whole world system.
PizzMiner49er/Black Blade/Others#7305004/09/02; 20:31:55

Miner - Your recap/summary right on. Thanks for reaffirming big picture. ALL need to reaffirm BIG PICTURE.

Haven't had time to read all posts, last couple weeks, but from what I have had time to read, and this has been selective, OIL appears to be bigger problem than most realize.

Black Blade - you scrounge and dig up enough on energy (etc) to give us the inside scoop - keep it up and thanks.

PPT and government proxies would appear to be applying paper and dirivitive solutions to both OIL and the DOW as they have done to gold over the years. (IMO)

NASDAQ appears to be on it's own. Scant resources left to prop markets. OIL, GOLD, and DOW appear to be the last to be controlled/ supported. All three appear to be on brink. Oil, gold, to go up, Dow to go down. $ appears to be a secondary consideration due to its position and proliferation. Still a safe haven in most eyes. Again, IMHO.

Cash flow for businesses is getting critical (spending 12 hours a day robbing Peter to pay Paul). My organization is not the only one. Without a strong Spring/Summer it will be a long cold winter. The advertised "recovery" IS NON-EXISTANT. Any corporation with assets is borrowing all they can - even short term. This is all that's keeping the major banks from earnings warnings. It's the last "powder" the banks have for earnings. My guess is Japanese/multinational banks have 6 to 12 months before implosion.

I'm adding systematically to all my positions, physical and other. Do your own due dilligence, but day to day, week to week variations are immaterial, IMHO.

Again, thanks to all, I hope to be able to give more due dilligence to this forum soon, even as controversial as I can be. Right now I'm getting more than I'm giving and it's appreciated.


miner49erCavan Man @ 73032 - Paper Gold...#7305104/09/02; 20:37:41

Greetings, again, Sir CM - First, I apologize if I left the impression that I was using you as a "straight man." The last thing I would want to do is ricochet off someone's post...

Second, I hope the post was not too confusing. I wrote it very, VERY late last night, partly while I was on the phone handling some other crisis (tempest-in-teapot stuff, really...). After having read it just now, it could certainly use a little rework, but c'est la vie...

Mainly what I wanted to address was the issue of "large paper gold holder/player[s]," and risk management, and the conclusion that many would decide they perhaps were not getting what they wanted insofar as hedging risk was concerned, and leave the markets for, presumably, a better risk-management tool. And that the condition that indicates this, is the evidence of a languishing POG. At least, this is how I understood your post.

I chose this point to illustrate what I feel is the reason so many observers have a hard time understanding why the price languishes, more importantly, why it will likely never reflect the true price of the physical metal... Even when the very conditions they know should cause a price rise are looming large over yon' horizon...

The point is fundamentally, that these big players don't necessarily care one way or the other about whether there is a gain, or not, and whether they exercise their contracts, or cash them out, at a regular loss (cost of insurance, if you will). It is as if they are holding "insurance policies" for a certain level and type of coverage, which over the past quarter century, has been satisfactory, given the operative paradigm. They have not insured in this system for the eventuation of 1000% POG increases, or rollercoaster volatility. And, by and large, through happenstance, market force, government intervention - overt and covert, dollar performance has delivered, and these markets have, indeed, been adequate.

Smart money recognizes the storm on the horizon, and realizes that the herculean potential contained in the storm clouds will deliver damage that these contracts ("policies") do not insure against. Thus, they are not selling out because they have thus far failed to perform. They know they cannot perform in the future, as they are the wrong instruments to hold altogether for the coming events. Add to this the consideration, that not only are they "underinsured," they are insuring something that will no longer need to be insured. Like the former CEO, why continue to waste premiums on him? Insure the new guy, instead... If moving to an entirely different currency for the denomination of your affairs, use the tools that work best for that currency. Dollar gold contracts will have no place in hedging/balancing a portfolio of euro instruments...

Thus the great "bifurcation" you speak of (btw, nice word...) takes place because of the obsolescence of the previous market paradigm, and the awareness of its insufficiency for tomorrow's world. Lack of price movement, until now has been Ok, as indeed, for whatever reasons, the instrument hedged against has not needed it. You are rightly perceiving the moment, I believe, as these players are NOW looking ahead. At this moment, so far, the gold substitute markets have outperformed the instrument they are hedging against. They have done quite well against the dollar this past year. At this rate, you would think they would stay with it.

But this is where the crux of the issue lies. These guys are now perceiving the storm against which they are not protected, and are exiting this arena. Without an apprehension of this concept, people are prone to think that it's simply the lack of upward price movement that is causing the exodus, which they perceive more as capitulation, rather than smart people heading for the hills... Thus many are saying to themselves, "I know better, the shorts, the cabal, the Fed, BuBa, whoever, can't hold this together forever, one day the squeeze will come..."

In this they are right, these guys can't hold it all together forever. They won't have to, though, if this forecast is at all correct. And there are likely to be painful squeezes, but they won't be the end game, and it won't bring financial wholeness and satisfaction to those leveraging for that end. These markets will likely not melt up into oblivion, but down instead.

This is partly how the shorts will hope to get out of this. As physical buying accelerates, the conventional logic has it that people will leverage these increases with futures and options. Actually, the bulk of the volume in the contract arena, are these institutional risk-managers, who are only concerned with the contracts' ability to keep parity with gold, and have interest only in taking any gains in cash, which is what they do their business in... They don't care about physical, that's why THESE guys play THESE bets. For them, paper is a more efficient medium to work with. Preferrable to dealing with physical storage, transport, and insurance concerns, etc. As long as cash price performance keeps some predictable, and stable relationship with the metal itself, they... are... happy... They exit when they no longer believe their contracts will provide this stability. Their sell out will decimate the paper price, because they foresee the discrediting of their "insurance" policies, altogether. The shorts will not only be relieved at this, but if they perceive the price on its way to single-digits, they'll chase it all the way down... and then rub it in the ground at the end...

Sure, some people will get hosed, they always do, and some spiking and squeezing will take place, and some people and houses could be ruined or badly damaged, but the overall thrust is likely to be as stated.

Yes, dear Knight, we probably do travel the same trail, but I am wont to go exploring, and sometimes get myself into trouble... but we both help each other stay on the path less traveled by, as it does certainly make all the difference...


p.s. I am also quite aware that the insurance analogy is imperfect, and that these contracts are not technically to be construed as insurance, but that's another story...

Black BladeU.S. Oil Sinks on Israel Pullback#7305204/09/02; 20:58:11

By Richard Valdmanis

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices retreated on Tuesday after Israel withdrew some troops from Palestinian cities in the West Bank and as No. 1 world oil exporter Saudi Arabia eased worries over the impact of Iraq's one-month embargo. Crude oil prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) fell 72 cents to $25.82 a barrel for May delivery, pulling back from gains made Monday due to Middle East violence and Iraq's call for a ban on exports in protest of Israeli incursions.

Black Blade: Still Israeli troops invaded other towns instead and the battle wages on. Meanwhile 13 Israelis were killed during a home invasion by remote controlled booby traps. This war is far from over -- the whole region is set to explode. Also, the petroleum worker strike in Venezuela is picking up and may erupt into a bigger problem similar to that in Argentina. El Presidente may find that his days are numbered, and somehow I don't think Hugo Chavez will go quietly.

Black BladeRick and Pizz - Thanks#7305304/09/02; 21:08:19

I try to find the news that might have a profound impact on the economy (and Gold by extension). Lately in the financial media we hear much more about how higher energy costs act as a tax and reduce consumer spending (we can add war to the equation as well). We also hear the Wall Street pimps and trolls who claim that energy isn't important anymore. I even heard one guest on CNBC this morning claim that energy isn't important - silicon chips are important! I hate to burst his bubble - but someone already did (the dot-com, telecom, and tech bubbles that is). Anyway now we have a petroleum worker strike in Venezuela - the most important exporter of oil to the US. In fact, Venezuela also refines gasoline for the US as we don't have enough refining capacity anymore - no new refineries have been built in about 30 years and every year we hear of on closing up due to environmental, NIMBY and regulatory reasons.

Without energy - the economy ceases to exist. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black BladeJapan money supply grows, little help for economy#7305404/09/02; 21:12:55


TOKYO, April 10 (Reuters) - Japan's money supply rose at its quickest pace in two years in March, central bank data showed on Wednesday, but analysts said it was more a sign of financial insecurity than of any pick-up in the real economy.

Black Blade: No need to comment -- the situation in Japan is desperate.

Cavan Man@miner49er#7305504/09/02; 21:57:44

No offense taken. As your straight man, I am flattered you chose to answer my question. Thanks again. Timing is of course problematic but while we are hiking together I should ask are we within a couple of years IYHO?
sectorEnron and Gold...The Plea Bargain from Anderson's Duncan...#7305604/09/02; 22:20:37

"...many songs to sing"

...may just be the level needed to extract the truth behind the known LBMA registration of Enron and the suspected heavy offshore gold "carry trade" shorting [Set up secretly by JPM].
April 9, 2002

Enron Plea Boosts Gov't in Court


Filed at 8:06 p.m. ET

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The admission in court Tuesday by a senior auditor at Arthur Andersen LLP that he broke the law destroying documents in Enron's collapse gives U.S. prosecutors a powerful tool in the broadening financial investigation, legal experts said.

David B. Duncan, a partner at the Andersen accounting firm who was fired in January, could provide the government with details about Enron's most controversial deals preceding its dramatic failure in December, along with insights into what the Justice Department says was Andersen's widespread and illegal shredding of related papers and e-mails, experts said.

``I predict he has many songs to sing,'' said Lowell Peterson, a New York lawyer with Meyer, Suozzi, English and Klein, which is pursuing severance benefits on behalf of about 40 Enron employees. ``I would be more worried if I were an Enron officer; Duncan didn't shred these documents for nothing.''

timbervisionminer69er#7305704/09/02; 22:51:06

Dear miner69er...Your two posts 73007 and 73051 demand comprehension for anyone wanting to better understand this gold situation. From Cavan Man's post his question finished with "do you exercise good judgement and prudence and sell those same paper instruments because they are not delivering what you paid for?" Does he mean "you paid for" them to go up in a leveraged way with a rising price of gold? So far they have been moving up with the price of gold in a leveraged way, so is that not what "you paid for" them to do. Is Cavan Man referring to the retracement this week of the mining shares? And are you, in your second post, saying the same thing when you say "these guys are now perceiving the storm against which they are not protected, and are exiting the arena."?

A question which really supercedes the above is one of definition. When we refer to paper gold are we absolutely including mining shares, hedged and unhedged. I thought I understood from FOA that the reason mining shares would underperform gold bullion was because as the price of gold takes off, governments will either nationalize gold mines or tax them heavily, to in effect steal the mining companies day in the sun and rob the shareholders of there just rewards (at least in the unhedged mines). I understand that other paper gold vehicles exist, but my question specifically calls attention to unhedged mining shares.

As an aside, I understand that mathematically as the price of gold goes up, the value of the mining shares leverage decreases vis-a-vis gold, but that is not what we are talking about here.


Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")TOP 10 goldbug book list............U-Vote-2........#7305804/09/02; 23:00:04

#1"The Great Reckoning"
by James Dale Davidson, lord Rees Mog
Why? Because in America we have very little financial history only about 300 years. And what's there to know on the big island of Dr. Moro. We invented the houses on the hills where we push aside the older generation that may have had some wisdom. It's our culture to embrace the new and reject the old. All that means, the lemmings keep a leapin and the #1 book will never be a best seller here. It's full of historical realities beyond the dimensions of delusional dollar-surreallyosis, a disease commonly found among partially educated populations who no longer read.

#2"Sovereign Individual" same authors. Taking it into the twilight zone. A little way out but it's not to be missed. Makes megatrends read like a dime novel.

#3 Farenheight 451 I don't know who wrote it but those guys at the river were living on barter and gold and silver were there too. Sci-fi that became reality about 5 years ago. History is being re-written for political correctness, reduced to CD-Rom and scanned for objectionable concepts. Your burnt books. Kids on legal dope Riddlin. Basic "NO Discipline " policy enforced at home while being administered through the schools, "one bruse and he's gone". Children are the property of the state..........eeeeeeeeeeeeeeewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwweeeeeeeeeeeoooooooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

#4 How to Be Rich by J. Paul Getty. Its philosophy of a blue collar guy who had pounds of common sense.

#5 The ABCs of Gold Investing by Michael J. Kosares. Runs the golden thread down through history and how gold is history. A good "base" gold book to gain perspective from.
And you can just look at the front cover instead of digging up your stash to "see the gold glitter one more time".

#6-9 for others to define

#10 Amen, the book of all books, Solomon's Wisdom is in there. Had to be last cuz the last is becoming first.

CoBra(too)- I never read "crashmasters" is it good. Does it read like Isaiah 24, Daniel 11-12. Zechariah 12-14.
We can buy-n-bury or dig up and re-denominate, bottom line is it's all in a migration pattern in a 3000 year Jerusalem cycle. May the streets be under your feets.

Solomon Weaverminer49er (04/09/02; 20:37:41MT - msg#: 73051)#7305904/09/02; 23:12:14

Nice post Miner

Where we seem to stand right now is that the paper price of gold "does" fit the physical the sense that MK and those folks in Japan and Dubai are paying that price in the physical markets.

If papergold was like bonds or stock certificates, we could anticipate that as their "claim on real gold" came into question, and their "claim on counterparty payment" thus became compromised, they could plummet in value as nobody would want to hold them.

The part which will be very hard to avoid is falling into the illusion that the paper price of gold is the physical price.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")Pre-1971 metals markets had to exist but in what form?#7306004/09/02; 23:17:53

So what type of "market" did mined gold sell under before 1971? That would be the throwback to a possible future scenario when gold would be confiscated by a failing gubermint, like Argentina for example, that just keeps on printing money backed by "dudes in suits in suites".
Black BladeGold Analyst SJ Kaplan Blows It Bad#7306104/09/02; 23:45:57

I see that Gold analyst SJ Kaplan is "STRONGLY BEARISH" on gold, just as he has been for the last several months. I find that quite amusing as he has completely missed out on the whole Bull Market rally in Gold. I looks to me as if he foolishly pissed away his time signaling a Bear Market in Gold and missed the whole event while many people doubled (or more) their earnings in Gold shares and those with physical were secure in the rising value of their share of portfolio insurance while the equities markets floundered. Of course anyone who followed his advice on shorting and Ebay at the time of his recommendation would have been whipsawed so badly, they would be in the Poor House long ago. He is quite a contrary indicator.

- Black Blade

Black BladeGauntlet-Runner2("GR2") - "Fahrenheit 451"#7306204/09/02; 23:48:54

"Fahrenheit 451", wasn't that written by Ray Bradbury? I do admit, his concept of Fireman was interesting. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Black BladeColin Powell Ordered To Stay Away From Israel For "A Few Days"#730634/10/02; 00:11:00

An interesting revelation came today as Colin Powell was seated with the King of Morocco for a photo op. During this period with cameras flashing and cameras rolling, the King asked Colin Powell "Why are you here and not in Jerusalem?"

Colin Powell was understood to have replied that Ariel Sharon needed "more time".

Where did Powell go next? He went to Cairo of course. Next he will go to Madrid for a meeting with European leaders, some who expressed concern and are hinting at sanctions against Israel. While this American Nero fiddles, cities in the West Bank burn.

It appears that this war will last for quite some time yet. Israeli tanks and troops pulled back from Nablus and Jenin and invaded a couple of other towns in the West Bank. Gold and Oil prices retreated on the news, however, it appears that the drop in prices may be a bit premature.

Oil supply could be cut back as the Venezuela strike and the Iraqi embargo take oil off the market. Iran and Libya (and now possibly Algeria) are threatening to join the embargo. All this is occurring at the start of the traditional Spring/Summer "Driving Season". Also note that insolvent Japanese banks are reporting greater losses than expected while at the same time the Japanese government is plowing Yen into the Nikkei to prop up the market. US markets are under assault by a push from the SEC for transparency, accounting scandals, crushing consumer and corporate debt, lowered corporate earnings and earnings warnings. Even so, Gold and Oil prices are dropping tonight. However, with so many problems plaguing the Globe it won't take much to push Petroleum and PM prices higher.

- Black Blade

WaveriderWhat really killed Argentina? #730644/10/02; 00:52:16

"So the Argentine economy has collapsed and social and financial chaos reigns.

We have read a great deal about it, but very few analysts have mentioned the actual and fundamental cause of this disaster. To do so is too horrifying, for what has destroyed Argentina is the same cause at work all over the world today. Argentina's fate is the world's fate - and that is too drastic a conclusion for any analyst who wants to be paid for his work.

Argentina's fate was determined by the deliberations of John Maynard Keynes and Harry Dexter White when they drew up the Bretton Woods Agreement as World War II was coming to an end. There, they created what France's General Charles de Gaulle later called "an exorbitant privilege": the right, pertaining to the victorious United States, to have its dollars considered as equivalent to gold in the reserves of central banks the world over.

What killed Argentina? In the last analysis, a world monetary system that turned its back on gold. Under the previous system, the gold standard, there was a minimum of exploitation. Gold only moved from one country to another in minimal amounts to settle transitory differences in value of goods and services traded. There was no system of worldwide payment of tribute in favor of one country, as today. Not surprisingly, financial crises were the exception, not the rule.

An equitable and stable world will not emerge until gold reassumes its role as the world's money."

Waverider: An *interesting* and provocative article. Cheers!

Black BladeAnother Suicide Bomber#730654/10/02; 01:04:17

Just over the wire is another suicide bomber takes out a bus in Haifa. Preliminary reports are that at least 10 are dead. Looks like the palestine invasion has not stopped the suicide bombers. If anything, the violence is intensifying.
Pippin@All : many thanks for your help (my question related to POG level)#730664/10/02; 01:07:22

Things are becoming clearer.
BelgianFundamentals + Intuition + T. Interpretations =#730674/10/02; 05:05:52

Hyperinflation is on its way to MANIFEST itself, shortly !
The coming, still possible decline, in the different indicators WILL BE THE LAST ONE ! Many of the past falsified TRENDS gave a "break" signal and announce a coming reversal of those trends !
The anxieties about POO / ECONOMY are on the rise (US-O'Neil/Euroland-analysts). The signs indicating w're on a one-way street become more visible for the blablablah-ers.

At today's 100th day of the euro-currency, the architects are on a program of euro-deepening acts to be implemented within the next 2 years (monetary+fiscal harmonizations)!
The euro will not stop COMPETING with the dollar ! First Prize = reserve status + revalued wealth asset of FREE GOLD !

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")So where is this new bottom anyway?#730684/10/02; 05:05:56

From the 30 day chart it seems serious resistance is around 295, but that triple dip Elliott rolldown in Sydney overnight could be leading to the first leg at 297. Why? Look at the angle of the pop off of 297. If it retouches 297 and comes up a little from there then maybe that was all the near of 295 that it's going to get. I'm looking for a small double bottom with the gateway to the new wild west arch in the middle. The shorts are feeling no pain at this point and it's simply picturesque to see them get so over-extended. Just when they're licking their chops the kid slams through the door and crams the jelly donut into Daddy short's new $310 suit he paid $299 for. Can you imagine all the buy stops being placed slightly above 300. It's going to momentum through 300 like a John Deere cutting through onion-grass. The preceding announcement contains certain "forward looking statements". Readers are asked to wear safety belts and keep their arms in the vehicle for the duration of the ride.
Ore what if............The Israelis posture instead of pull back. Pullin back isn't worth a wasted suicide bomber. Barbed wire and fence posts, don't leave home without them. What will you do? What will you do? Next time your aunt gets blown up for shopping at the mall. Carry only genuine barbed-wire and fence posts. Accepted all over the third world for creating "safety" in a war zone. Once the wire goes up then you pull back the troops you don't need anymore and leave behind the "security force". Well done young Jedi...sit up a little, its good for your posture.

Pippin@ Gauntlett - your 73068#730694/10/02; 05:40:16

<<From the 30 day chart it seems serious resistance is around 295, but that triple dip Elliott rolldown>>

So there IS a use for the Elliott Wave Theory in Precious Metals :-)

At what Wave Degree do you expect a change to take place ? Minor-Intermediate-Primary etc.?

HipplebeckGold down overnight#730704/10/02; 05:43:00

I see England's Ozzie puppets were selling again last night
HipplebeckGlaring hypocracy in the age of the politaclly correct#730714/10/02; 05:46:13

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the country that has everyone condemning the killing of civilians in war the same country that dropped nuclear bombs on cities?
Black BladeGold Hits $300/oz. #730724/10/02; 06:32:41

Gold is making a good solid move since trading on London. Oil was higher though Natural Gas is now higher. The Middle East situation is heating up as a suicide bomber takes out a bus load in Haifa. Bush and Euro leaders tell Sharon to get out of West Bank and Sharon tells Bush to mind his own business. This is getting "Interesting". Also, Iran says that they will join Iraqi embargo if another muslim OPEC producer will join also.

- Black Blade

Black BladeThat Didn't Last Long#730734/10/02; 06:33:54

Gold just did a huge U-Turn. Hmmm...
RobotGuyWar?#730744/10/02; 06:52:50

I've been reading about suicide bombings for several years now. There is no war, there are many acts of cowardice, and returned acts of vengeance, but I wouldn't consider the ME mess a war. A war is something my grandfather fought in, where there are mass numbers of soldiers committed to battle, not a bunch of civilians getting blown up in a restaraunt.
My father is a strong believer in the christian faith, and he and others I know who are also christians have been telling me for years that Armageddon is just around the corner. Listen to yourselves, do you realize how many hundreds of years people have been saying that? As we all tippy toe around the Middle East and try not to stir things up too much because we wouldn't want to trigger the end times. It isn't stated in the media, but isn't that what the big scary deal is? I'm sorry, but I just don't buy that. I don't mean to bash religion, because that's an age old battle, after all it's what everything in the 'holy' land is about. Can't we all just hold hands and be friends? Hyah right.

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")Ramblings before the rumble.#730754/10/02; 06:55:51

It seems there is some contention as to why gold would go up during deflationary times. We don't want to talk about that. Well, I need my porridge just right, or I don't eat.

page 447 The Great Reckoning...........
Warning signs of deflation:
-continued shrinkage of M-2
-double digit increases in the portion of the money supply that is held as cash
-flight from high risk bank instruments, a widening of the ted spread between T-bills and eurodollars
-a dramatic drop in the market price of freely trading instruments that mimic the valuation of bank collateral
-falling commodity prices. But note that a rising nominal price of gold implies either the crunch is still ahead or it is already passed. *****At the end of past credit cycles, the real price of gold has bottomed at or near the end of the credit cycle, THEN RISEN SHARPLY.
-continued declines in real estate, in spite of easy money
-a fall in loan demand in the face of falling interest rates.

from page 503
The extreme character of these monetary risks can be judged from history. Five credit cycles have come to an end over the past three centuries, the last in 1929. On average, the price of gold in real terms rose within four years of the end of the cycle to exceed its high of a decade earlier by 8.5 percent in real terms. This implies that the inflation-(or deflation) adjusted price of gold would come to about $1600 in 1990 dollars. A tremendous monetary disturbance lies in store if history repeats itself.

page 510, right after they say buy some gold in Guideline #9

There is also more than a slight possibility that political and economic breakdown would force governments to revert to gold-backed money to reliquify a bankrupt world.

The authors are not goldbugs and they even say to buy gold. They say gold doesn't go up during deflation but rises sharply at the ending of the credit cycle. So the inversive is the ease of credit. Sprint can't get loans with short term paper. Unsecured loans are drying up for weak corporations and I think it will move on down to light commercial and eventually the consumer level. Rates are low but the banksters are scared to lend to all the new needy loosers. As we saw the ending of the deflation by gold's 250 low, we now see the buildout of the gold mining stock patterns, in reverse symmetry to the past two years. Before the spikes were caused by short squeezes and didn't last long. Now we see prices stubborn to retrace even 50%. This buildout is different. In the economy we see inflation mixed with deflation. Oil is up but China crap is down. 0% financing (deflationary) but do YOU qualify? I surmise that the deflation is ending as monopolies reform from mergers and with the competitors in chapter 11, the new monopoly raises prices and has little competition. It has been said an American would rather have an inflated dollar than no dollar at all. The government's decision to apease the troubled masses vs. their interest in protecting owners of their debt, the bond holders, is a big important question. I'm not trying or go Orwell 84 on everybody but its looks to me the way US policy is clearly reactionary and not proactive in design. We are headed for a German model of at first monotering all flows of everything everywhere. That gives peace to the planners. They will stretch out their arms and want to measure everything. Ceasar's census is stage 1. How much is M-3 and where is it going? No need for currency controls if you can assign the beavers new places to keep the dam up. Stage 2 is reacting the big leaks over the dam. Limiting repatriation and reducing bond sales by old bond holders. Stage 3 is knowing stage 2 won't work so they enact controls with computerzation against the lemmings. 25 million daytraders simultaneously shorting stock was too much antacid for the big boys to handle. So they enacted rules to eliminate shorting capabilities of the little traders. Margins gone and your boat can only float downstream now. I found an eddy current in gold and the sun is shining in my boat through the trees. Taxes are going way up in tandom with the postage increases, even worse. They can sugar coat their speeches but the accountants will not be sleeping when the dwindling tax revenues don't come in. Budget surplus was a mountain spring but it's now summertime and the critters are dried up in the muddy hole way downstream. Pour on the umemployment baby. Government is dumping out is dead and by droping wage levels they will hire them all back for 1/3 the price. You eliminate a job costing you $50,000 and create two more that each pay $15,000. Import some more cheap rubber spears from China and keep the natives happy. The Clintoons were masters of disinformation. Perot had the flip charts. Reality check? No just split off the white male vote and sabatoge the conervative vote. Clintooned again. Now Bush has to wash all the dishes after the party. Taxes will go up so high he'll be running for the bushes. The "war is good for the economy" only works when you can do things like going to the moon and have money in he bank instead of IOUs. Late 60's early 70's was the zenith of America's industrial might. Well the gym was sweaty and dirty so we took up jogging. High tech is on, we can talk instead of drive. Sorry pilgrims, telecommunications is a service not and industry. Gambling at casinos, lotteries and race tracks is a service not an industry. It is going to take more than consumer spending at pizza shops and nail-care salons to revive the giant. Will dollars be redeamable in Chinese produced goods forever? Study the port history in western Russia, the fur trade with China. What did China do to lower prices on furs they bought? THEY CLOSED THE PORT. Sun Tzu carries a mean shank. They'll get you addicted to their imports like economic opium, then they'll cut you off and watch with glee as you go into withdrawl. South American solid labor is America's ace in the hole. We can leverage our industries with it. Europe doesn't have it. I'm a goldbug but the way some gold bugs want to live in shelters and the like........Where's da luv mun. Lets talk about a higher quality of life with gold if it's at all possible. Johnny panned for some gold and a caught a trout which he shared with his neighbor. Johnny was a good guy and had a good woman. And lived in a good house and used his guns for hunting.

But one man's doomsday is another's dreamscape. We need to be at the right place at the right time to survive. Don't be counting your K-rations in New Jersey, just bury some beans in Wyoming. Learn from the wildabeast to avoid the mark of the beast...move to where the food is. He only has power where there are lots of dumb lemmings and electricity. Gerbels and chips with wheels for them to run on. Outback digger dudes with 4 wheel drive vehicles and no gasoline. Where's a towelhead when you want to trade gold for a camel. How many ounces for that mule in the window? Hey, I was talking positive. I always smiled when I was on the pony ride.

miner49ertimbervision @ 73057 - Paper Gold, etc...#730764/10/02; 07:36:13

Hi, timbervision - just quickly, as I gotta run...

a) Your Q: "Does he mean "you paid for" them to go up in a leveraged way with a rising price of gold?"

The issue is again, and most, most importantly, why do the institutional risk-managers participate in these markets to begin with?

They engage a different thought process from the speculator. The spec is trying to find a way to leverage the existing system in his favor by getting out in front of what he perceives to be the system's weaknesses. Thus, he would be the one prone to say, "Look at all the reasons gold SHOULD be increasing, but it's barely up 10%, I can't park my money here forever, I'm outta here!" He would, by getting out, be saying in effect that the angle he thought he could work, was unworkable. Or that his timing was so far off, it doesn't meet his objectives to just sit and wait.

This is not what the risk-manager is saying. He is managing risk. Risk of what? Here, the dollar, or some instrument that relies on the dollar. If the dollar performs with stability and predictability, he is happy. His hedge in paper gold is only there to mitigate, and help smooth out RELATIVELY minor bumps and glitches. He might, say, import some raw material for his business. If the dollar devalues a bit and his costs are up 5%, he wants to be able to offset that with a cash gain in some instrument that provides nothing more than ballast for his operation. If paper contracts provide him cash gains to offset accordingly, his objective is reached. He again is happy.

If statistics were reliable, and honest, an inflation indexed government note would work. But they are not, and indexed notes are suckers bets. So he goes for the gold, and because in a world where the cash price in dollars is, by design, kept relatively stable in terms of the metal, these guys go for the cash contracts -- for the cash benefits. This ties over into another question you had:

b) "And are you, in your second post, saying the same thing when you say 'these guys are now perceiving the storm against which they are not protected, and are exiting the arena.'?"

Since "these guys," the risk-managers, are not thinking along the lines of the speculator above, they are not getting out because of the system's failure to have produced sufficient price action -- so far. In terms of their business, the system has, is, and still is providing sufficient price action, but just barely now... And it is the forecast, that it may not do its job much longer, that is causing the slow, snowballing exodus of the large commercial player. He, again, is not saying, "My gosh, look at the aggregates, the current acct. deficit, the Mid East, oil, etc., gold should be skyrocketing! This is ridiculous! ..Ciao!" That is more the mindset of the spec. The risk manager, on the other hand has been happy with the market's performance, as it has successfully managed his risk, by providing the little bits of "hedge" when needed. Yet, for the most part it has not been needed, since the insured instrument -- the dollar -- has performed as desired. Only NOW is he starting to notice, that the dollar, in WHATEVER business aspect he is concerned with, is devaluing, and that his hedging instruments (paper gold), are beginning to NOT keep pace, and that conditions are that the market is slipping, and his instruments may NOT be credible much longer.

So, what does the crusty old commercial institutional manager do...? Wait for a spike, and sell into it like there's no tomorrow...

Consider this also. I'm speaking here mostly of long contract holders whose business requirements need to protect against a weakening dollar... Hence they go long to make up in a higher gold price. What of the evisceration in U.S. manufacturing, who's real-live, warm-blooded people, who run these businesses, must also live with the devastation they experience from a STRONG dollar...? This is surely some of the force behind the short gold...? These guys, recognizing a trend to a weaker gold price, most likely hedge the other way around. Much more risky, but maybe it is as FOA says here, "So how will these big derivative players make out on their paper gold loans and paper gold shorts? I think they will make a fortune because they understood Another better than the Western Gold bugs could!"

c) Lastly - mining shares...

Yes, mathematically the leverage does decrease proportionately as POG increases. Say a mine brings to market at 270, and gold is 280. Gold at 294 is a 5% rise, but the miner sees a 140% increase per oz. Gold goes now another 5% to 308.70. The mine now sees only a 61.25% gain relative to the POG increase, ceteris paribus, of course... The big issue here is this little Latin stuff which we like to use to make us look smart... "The rest being equal..." Hmmm...

If POG increases, then prices are also increasing, and thus wages, oil, and every other cost... The mine is not likely to keep costs at 270 for long in this scenario. This makes some difference, but is not that terribly important while gold is still at these levels -- and the dollar is still at its levels. The price of gold presumably should beat the price increases. A significant increase in gold portends more ominous conditions however, and those conditions are the transition out of the dollar to the euro. The very hyperinflation that mine speculators want to leverage -- as they see this manifesting in the POG -- will come about because of the transition to the euro. This hyperinflation WILL be felt overwhelmingly in dollar costs, that WILL make a big impact on the mines' profits.

It seems odd to want to speculate on the impending discrediting of the dollar, by buying investments and bets denominated in the very instrument one believes will be discredited...

This compounded with all the other pain and woe: nationalizing, rapacious taxation, regulation, plus takeovers by hungry hedgers..., and you have a very risky sandbox in which to now play with your hard earned, and scarce capital... so in my opinion...

...So much for just quickly... Hope this makes things clearer to you,


USAGOLD Market CommentaryGold Indecisive, Analyst Says "$345 by Summer. . ." #730774/10/02; 08:26:58

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USAGOLDReligious Posts#730824/10/02; 09:43:17

Discussions on religion tend to inflame. Let's not get caught up in that trap at this gold forum.

Long scriptural postings have little or nothing to do with the price of gold in New York.

Sorry to all for lifting those posts. I know we have many spiritually oriented clientele, but this isn't the place for it. Most of you who are clientele know where I stand on this.

Please work with me on this. MK

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")When volumes fall back on a handle.....#730834/10/02; 09:48:09

Volumes for goldshares traded have been falling off on the daily chart and it means sellers are less and less. Selling momentum is abating. Longs have not jumped in as it's a little scarey to be buying into a pullback without confirmation. Well all the "talk" aside Goldfields and Harmony are pushing 6 and 7% up for the day. When these skitish longs come back they are going to find market makers empty of stock and when you can't catch the bus and it means a trip to Bermuda or not. You run hard and catch that bus. Chasing it. Partial fills only, and moving right past them. I don't know why the goldstock patterns shed good light on a POG breakout, even better than the gold futures patterns. So why do trees grow in the woods? So birds can land in them. But they do and today we were headed for the breakaway down or up. This three flags up with the first one being rounded over IS a mega-breakout pattern. It doesn't always rocket launch up but I've seen it on AIPN went from 1 1/8 to 4 in three days a year or two ago. I normllly only see it happen to the tech pennystocks absorbing mutual fund money. The bid ask spreads are tight and mostly larger numbers on the bid. If it stays that way all day it's a minor breakout begun. The last hour will tell. Shorts get squeezed, buyers can jump in or out. Everyone's going to stir their coffee more than twice today. Guess I'll have to go to GOLDEN corral today to eat yellow corn bread and shiney buttered potatoes. It was not raining today, it's all liquid sunshine.
CoBra(too)Re: "Crashmaker"#730844/10/02; 10:05:04

@ "GR2" - Crashmaker - A federal Affair, recently published and authored by Victor Sperandeo and Alvaro Almeida. It's about a group crashing the FED and fiat regime and re-instating a goldstandard.
James Turk has warmly recommended it last fall, though I'm only trough part one, I would think it's a great read.
Regards cb2

RobotGuyI apologise MK, I shouldn't have. Feel free to delete "War?" also if it is out of context. Thank-you.#730854/10/02; 10:05:21

Gauntlet-Runner2("GR2")Elliot Wave Theory#730864/10/02; 10:28:37


Elliot wave theory patterns human psychology and the oscillations of mood swings among the traders. He said bull and baer movements occur in groups of three or five waves. A flag would be two waves, one up and one down. PDG was doing 3 mountain tops often and in a three wave sequence. Its all cocktail talk fodder. 20-20 hindsight is a help for providing some humility but when we are at the end of the third wave Elliot himself said he can't tell if it goes on to wave 4 and 5. If you dig in deep to the theory it is valid as you can see it all over the charts. The little three wave rift down I see it as a small sellout indicator in the short term. Long term look at MDG as it did three loops down to 11.30 about two weeks ago. That slinky roll down in three waves is what Elliot wave theory is about. PDG goes up slow and falls hard, say 5 up and 3 down. Most are up in 3 and may go down in 5. In the yearly chart on a daily candle. I look at prior valuations during 380 gold from 94-96. We may be in for a ride. I gave up trying to guess intraday volatility and I only mentioned the three wave rift in Sydney because it was cool and I was bored. Look at the small M bottom completed in NY this morning. They are supposed to be level and this is on an incline. The roller coaster has that ratchet sound on the safety catch going on up. They all thought the high handle was going to crash with a big red streak down......why, we are at war with an unseen enemy. The national debt is only 6 TRILLION dollars compounding at what percent.

G$(No Subject)#730874/10/02; 10:35:48

Anybody got word on the $2.6 move up in gold futures?


Mr GreshamWow! miner49er, GR2#730884/10/02; 10:44:37

miner: You surpass yourself these past few days. I have only about 1/9 the usual time available to read, so I'll print yours and also be back for thorough re-read of the discussions. You bridge that "big pictur"/"our picture" gap with your added perspectives.

GR2 -- You rock! Keep it rolling.

an All-Star cast here today, even the "OT" is so "T"al. Add a little rain: Spring flowers bloom in fertile soil...

RobotGuyGR2 - - - Elliot wave#730894/10/02; 10:55:44

You know sir, I never had any training in playing with the markets, I just jumped in and started swimming. I have noticed this type of pattern and thought to myself how peculiar! If people knew this was happening why wouldn't the wave pattern randomly change. I am glad to see that I wasn't imagining this!
Thank-you for your post!!



Mr GreshamBut then...#730904/10/02; 11:21:20

C'mon, baby! Break 306 and I'll take the rest of the day off!
RobotGuyMiner49er - - - "It seems odd to want to speculate on the impending discrediting of the dollar, by buying investments and bets denominated in the very instrument one believes will be discredited..."#730914/10/02; 11:37:11

I have considered this on another occasion, and after some serious thought, I have come to a conclusion. If let's say gold were to be revalued according to a devaluation of currency, then everything related to gold would be modified to suit that new value. For example let's say a dollar today is worth a penny tomorrow. Suddenly the price of gold is 30000 dollars, but let's not forget gasolene bread and fresh oysters, which have also become 200, 100, and 500 relatively speaking. My point is, that my shares are related to gold, because I have lent my hard earned dollars to Mr. Miner and he is producing the product that everyone wants which is now worth 30000. As suddenly as the value of my dollar is .001 and gold is worth 30000 my shares will also be worth their relative value. Perhaps I may no longer be able to trade my useless fiat for gold at 300 dollars an ounce, but I know someone who owes me gold.

Just my idea.


goldfoolCurrent violence in the ME not going to abate until Saddam is removed from power.#730924/10/02; 11:47:38

It's pretty obvious to this casual observer that the flames of war and terrorism in Israel and the occupied territories are not going to abate until Saddam is removed from power. Knowing that he is the next most likely candidate in Bush's war on terrorism Saddam is hoping that he can postpone his day of reckoning by providing the Palestinian terrorists with the moral and material support needed to continue the current violence and in the meantime increase anti-Israeli sentiment throughout the region and in the world in particular. (Note that he has turned off the oil spigot for 30 days, increased the amount paid to families of suicide bombers, etc.). On the other side of the coin I wouldn't expect Bush or Powell to get too agressive in their demands for an Israeli pull-out from the occupied territories. This was probably a coordinated effort in the planning by the White House and Sharon who seized upon an opportunity to root out the Palestinian terrorist infrastructure before the US takes on Iraq. Israel knows that it is a primary target for retaliation if and when the US starts its offensive against Iraq so why not at least clear the immediate area of weapons and extremists prior to any hostilities and hopefully the only threat they'll have to deal with is from the air where they have overwhelming superiority. Interesting to note also that Mr. Bush is using the current unrest in the ME and the spike in oil/gas prices to promote in Congress the passage of legislation to drill in ANWAR to reduce foreign dependence. I have to ask myself why are the Republicans and Bush so focused on this issue considering the other problems the country faces both at home and abroad? Being an Independent and considering the risks and rewards of the situation I have come to the conclusion that it basically boils down to it being a symtom of the ever-increasing polarity that exists in Congress between Republicans and Democrats. Hopefully in the long run they can put their ideological differences behind them and be objective in their decision making on all issues and do what's best for the majority fo the people of this country.
Sierra MadreNews from Kuwait...#730934/10/02; 11:48:16

I received this e-mail from a friend this morning; I have deleted names to preserve privacy:

"-----------, an attorney -accountant that lives here in ----------, is in London today. Shutting down a Kuwait oil company. ------- is on the Board of Directors and according to his wife ------ who advised me this afternoon that the Kuwaities will not load the company's American Flag tankers. The company owns three such tankers so their purpose to continue operations is over and now closing down."

It appears the idea of a selective embargo on oil exports is getting some real support.


TruthcasterGreenspam got woke from his nap#730944/10/02; 12:02:26

I can just see it, old greenie was kicked back in his
big leather backed chair when all at once his computer
cried out WARNING! WARNING! Gold is at 300 and ounce and rising. He wakes startled because things were going
great today the dow was up the dollar looked in good shape
gold was down a little oil was only up a hair. So we thought
sure I can squeeze a little nap in before lunch. Oh well
to bad.. 300 and ounce, were back baby!

RobotGuyTruthcaster#7309504/10/02; 12:08:00

You didn't say GREEN leather backed chair, but that is what I envisioned. Bizzare how we interpret things, it must be true, cause the image popped into my head instantly :)


TrapperMr. Robot Guy#7309604/10/02; 12:12:17

I think the answer to your delima on the pricing of gold stocks in dollars can be fixed by one of two methods. The one I like is buy a company who pays its divend in Gold as a few are now doing. This is a trend that I'm sure will expand.
Second buy a mine that is priced in a fiat that you like. There are a couple of apologist here who think the Euro will be the fiat of the future. Live small.

Cavan Man@miner49er#7309704/10/02; 13:02:07

Valuing Paper Assets

Watching the US equity markets one can see the sharp contrast between wishful thinking and reality; a definite disconnect. Likewise, we witness the Comex disconnect eh?
RobotGuyI really need to get back into literature, I find the more I ponder ideas and wish to share, the harder it becomes to express my intended message.#7309804/10/02; 13:59:18

Gimli_NY gold resuscitated by AngloGold hedge reductions#7309904/10/02; 14:08:20


NY gold resuscitated by AngloGold hedge reductions
04/10/02 12:20 PM
Source: Reuters

NEW YORK, April 10 (Reuters) - COMEX gold jumped on Wednesday, recovering from early profit taking after top-tier South African producer AngloGold Ltd. said it was "aggressively" running down its hedge book.

Though the company gave no details, saying only that it was taking advantage of market conditions, June gold accelerated a mild morning bounce back above the $300 an ounce level around which it has consolidated recent gains all week.
The trend toward reduced selling by gold companies has been bullish for gold this year. The tone was set by U.S.-based Newmont Mining, after it bought Australia's Normandy Mining, became the world's largest producer, and pledged to unwind Normandy's large hedge book and avoid all hedging.

Producers hedge by selling their output forward to lock in prices and protect themselves against falls in the market. But it can work against their interests because heavy hedging activity can prevent the price of gold from rising.

"We haven't changed our hedging policy per se, but market conditions at the moment dictate that we are running down our hedge book and we have been for a little while," AngloGold Financial Director Jonathan Best told Reuters.

AngloGold closed 1.7 million ounces in its hedge book in the last quarter of 2001, leaving it with a hedge book of 14.6 million ounces. Best said the company was reducing its book because it was more bullish on the gold price and because U.S. interest rates are low, raising the cost of carrying short gold positions.

USAGOLDAll. . .Anglo Hedge Book#7310004/10/02; 14:35:45

Looks like Belgian was right when he said that Anglo was going for debt financing in order to run down its hedge book.

Good call, Belgian!

Also, here was a hint of things to come as published Monday at the News & Views page/Short & Sweet section:

"Dow Jones reports that mega-hedger Anglo American seeks debt restructuring under a proposal to sell $1 billion in debt instruments. Hedge funds, the report goes on, immediately began to short the South African miner's stock. Anglo American doesn't have a formal credit rating, but one analyst told Dow Jones 'it is viewed by the market as a BBB company -- the lowest category in investment grade."

Comment: With hedge funds making a target of Anglo (as a company to short), it seems they figured they'd better do something to make themselves less unattractive.

This could be big news, my fellow goldmeisters -- significant as an industry trend likely to put a rising floor under the market.

silvesterSingLion#7310104/10/02; 15:55:20

Anyboby else read the post by SingLion at another forum? Sounded very familiar.
LeSinPure FOA/Trail Guide from SingLion @ GE Forum#7310204/10/02; 16:22:12

I have not checked The Trail, however like you, I thought surely, Singlion's post content at the GE Forum was lifted from FOA/TG's Gold Trail USA Gold Site.
With repect to SingLion, I do not think that it was intentional as he is a champion for Another & FOA/TG views and message re gold & currencies.
Cheers "S"

LeSin"Silvester" not "Sylvester" - Apologies Sir#7310304/10/02; 16:24:08



Arcticfox; 16:27:30

NY gold pops after AngloGold says cutting hedges
4/10/02 9:35 AM
Source: Reuters

NEW YORK, April 10 (Reuters) - The following are New York midday prices and market updates for precious metals and copper:


COMEX June gold at 1228 EST up $1.80 at $301.40 an ounce, recovering from early slippage and accelerating a bit after South Africa's Anglogold says running down hedge book aggressively. Range so far $298.10-$301.70. Gold digesting the 37,000 contract long, still supported by firm oil prices and safe-haven buying after Israel vows to carry on its offensive. Estimated volume 16,000 contracts at noon. Open interest rose 1,434 on Tuesday. Spot gold quoted at $299.10/9.60, up from the close at $298.10/60. The last fix in London was $298.


COMEX May silver was up 5.2 cents at $4.61 an ounce, recovering morning slippage and trading a $4.53-$4.61 range. Volume at midday was 11,000 lots. Spot silver fetched $4.60/62, up from $4.54/56. The fix was at $4.555.

R PowellSinglion's post#7310504/10/02; 16:53:10

LeSin and Silvester
I also saw that post and thought exactly as you did. As to Singlion's connection with FOA or Another I have absolutely no knowledge but did notice that several posters there did ask precisely that question.
It seems logical that those convinced of the truth or probable fulfillment of any prediction would talk of it especially after spending a great deal of time assimulating, disciphering or comprehending it. Perhaps Singlion is just such a person. I have lurked there for many years and have learned which to read and which to bypass. Singlion, I read.
Comex open interest was actually increased yesterday (on a price down day) very slightly but up on both gold and silver. Tomorrow's paper will give today's numbers. More new contracts indicate a growing interest in PM.
What great fun!

Simply MeThe End of Bargain Basement Prices, America#7310604/10/02; 17:26:14

04/10 16:55
Sears Shares Rise After Profit Forecast Increased

"Chief Executive Alan Lacy is tightening controls on inventory at the largest U.S. department-store company's more than 800 stores by reducing the number of suppliers. The changes allow Sears to offer fewer discounts, which widened profit margins in the first quarter, and may boost earnings this year."

Simply says: Those suppliers who are being cut are going to be hurting with the loss of such a big buyer. Sears is not alone in this trend. It's just good business. More layoffs, bankruptcies, etc, for manufacturers. Rising prices for the consumer. This is just the beginning of the inflation. Add the ME conflict, rising oil costs and possible interest rate hikes later this year...and "BAM", as Emeril Lugossi would say, "We're gonna crank it up a notch!", gold, that is.


Black BladeJapan – Is It just The Banks That Are Insolvent – Or Is It The Whole Damn Country?#7310704/10/02; 18:42:48

Recently George "Dubya" Bush went to China and on his way he stopped over in Japan for a "courtesy call" on Japanese Prime Minister Junichero Koizumi. The problem it seems is that this was no ordinary "courtesy call" or just a couple of chums yukking it up over a few cases of sake. It seems that the problem of Japan's insolvent banks and failing currency are very likely to drag the rest of the world into a deep Global Depression and the Japanese aren't doing much to stop it.

Japan is the world's second largest economy and it also has the world's largest level of public debt to the tune of 140% of GDP. That's a colossal load of debt. Across this Island nation bankruptcies and unemployment are rising to new record levels never seen before. The Nikkei 225 has recently hit new lows, consumer confidence is nearly nonexistent, and consumer prices are falling fast. In fact housing prices are falling to levels not seen since 1982. Many properties are priced far below the mortgage values creating some major concerns for the insolvent Japanese banks (more on this later).

Joblessness, bankruptcy, crime, and suicide were once almost unheard of in Japan, and now these problems are so common that they rarely even make it to the back pages of Japanese newspapers. These days it is not uncommon to see middle-age educated men and even some women walking about in Japan's cities begging for money with signs around their necks that read "Restructured" – that's Japanese for fired or shuffled off to the "Bone Pile".

Actually the biggest crisis may be the failed Japanese Yen. The Bank of Japan is hard pressed to keep the printing presses running 24 hours a day to offset the growing liquidity crisis. The Yen recently hit about 135 Yen to the US Dollar. This of course is a major concern to US manufacturers who depend on exports as a chief source of income and the increased competition from a weakened Yen is resulting in much of the US "Bone Pile" growth. But it is actually much worse than that – this crisis will likely trigger currency devaluations throughout the Asian community. This may very well result in "Asian Contagion – Part II".

The Japanese have even forsaken the Yen in some quarters. The massive "run for the Gold" is partial evidence of this falling confidence in the country's currency. In fact a new currency is circulating now. This script is called "Yufu". Actually it is more of a barter script. People contribute their skills (under the table of course) for Yufu that they can exchange for goods and services. Japan is in the beginning stages of a growing currency crisis and it is no wonder that the Japanese people are "going for the Gold" (or platinum, or almost any hard asset).

The Insolvent Japanese banking sector is not a pretty sight either. Here Japanese banks have over $5 Trillion in debt that they are not willing to (or can't) write off. They are trying to collect on these bad debts. The result is that suicide and bankruptcy rates are accelerating and Japanese bankers are going so far as to hire armed martial arts experts to collect from some unsavory characters (such as members of the Japanese mob – Yakuza). The banks are being forced to write off bad loans while the rate of bad loans are growing even faster. That results in a loss of confidence that leads to even more bad loans (a death spiral).

It appears that it is now up to Koizumi to drum up yet another bailout for Japan's banks (the fifth since 1998). If anyone here thinks that the US S&L crisis in the 1980's was bad, this Japanese banking crisis makes that look rather insignificant. This crisis will sink Japan and its economy to the point of total collapse and in the process take many of the world's economies with it. So what has the Japanese government done? So far they have changed regulations that allow for guaranteeing only the first $75,000 in time deposits beginning on April Fools Day. Next year this restriction carries over to all Japanese savings deposits. There is a lot of Yen to steal when the banks collapse.

There is nowhere to run and nowhere to hide for many Japanese. Many Japanese are making the decision to get hard assets like Gold and Platinum rather than take their chances on a failed government and a failing banking sector. As more Japanese end up on the growing "Bone Pile" and the Yen becomes worthless they simply do not want to end up as those poor people in Argentina who were lied to and screwed by their government. People in Japan still have fresh in their memories news reports of survivors of the Kobe earthquake digging through their ruined homes and pulling out Gold bullion that survived while their currency and possessions burned in the resulting fires. The growing crisis in Japan's insolvent banking sector and crumbling currency are fanning the flames of a different fire that threatens to consume the wealth of most Japanese. Therefore it is a foregone conclusion that the "Japanese Gold Rush" will continue for quite some time to come.

- Black Blade

Mr GreshamSinglion post#7310804/10/02; 18:53:01

Hard to locate there, so it was 19:05 on April 9.

Seems a restatement of FOA, in another voice and style. A younger speaker, different grammar, but neither adding nor detracting from the FOA we know. A good paraphrase. Didn't really carve into any new depth, or much of an update since we last heard from him. Didn't seem to be entirely claiming to be him, but close; so what...

Almost as if one of us had read the entire Trail and taken excellent notes; then tried to write it into a summary document for an audience somewhere between the average investor and average Gbug.

I welcome anyone keeping these ideas before us, and I especially welcome anyone delving into the views of those who move these markets with or without us, as those like miner49er, Belgian, and many others do here and elsewhere.

I think we should welcome the cross-fertilization of ideas from ALL forums. We are in for quite a ride ahead, and our joys should be boundless...

YGMBIS Paper, (India) Evolving Role of Gold, Trends & Future. (Reddy) Mar 21/02#7310904/10/02; 18:58:44

Link to further BIS Gold related papers next....YGM.
YGMBIS Search Link to Gold#7311004/10/02; 19:01:09

1-10 of 156 pages......YGM.
Cavan Mansinglion#7311104/10/02; 19:09:46

I believe he is from Singapore and I have a guess as to who he might be. He is a long time commentator on the posts of FOA/A at GE. I think he is wise beyond his years.
Black BladeN.Y. probe of Wall St. banks expands#7311204/10/02; 19:23:44

Goldman, Lehman, Salomon, Morgan reportedly named


NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Prosecutors have widened their investigation into the alleged conflict of interests of Wall Street analysts to include at least eight investment banks, the state attorney general's office said Wednesday. Juanita Scarlett, a spokeswoman for Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, wouldn't confirm the names of those firms or how many have been subpoenaed, but said that they comprised all the major investment banks.

Black Blade: This could be interesting though I suspect that ultimately nothing will come of it. These people have their politicians and bureaucrats bought and paid for. Just a shell game.



April 9, 2002 -- IT'S getting harder for Wall Street to hide the pea. Just a week ago the investment community had this little shell game going: the economy was not only improving, but it was improving rapidly. Find the evidence to prove us wrong. Then came rapid fire bad news from the U.S. Labor Department on Friday and IBM yesterday, and suddenly it's a lot harder for Wall Street to flim flam investors.

But the guys moving the shells around on Wall Street aren't satisfied with just improvement. They want you to believe not only that there has been improvement but that the economy had gotten so good that the recession barely happened. In fact, the there-was-no-recession crowd was getting more vocal these past few weeks.

This idealized view of the economy fit the needs of both Washington and Wall Street.

Washington got to ease fears that the slow economy couldn't handle the sudden surge in the nation's debt. And on Wall Street, the peddlers of stocks could finally make a credible case that the very overpriced market really wasn't such a bad deal after all.

The second shell that was being shuffled had to do with corporate profits.

Black Blade: I think that it must be easy to flim flam American investors. Americans are quite a gullible lot. Then again, trading volumes on the Wall Street exchanges have fallen off a cliff. Guess what's under the Third Shell. Hmmm…

Black BladePuplava Market Wrap Up#7311404/10/02; 19:50:35

News in Oil


Events in the Middle East today are proving once again how fragile peace is and how vulnerable Western economies are to fluctuating oil prices. Technological advances in energy may be in the works, but for the majority of world economies, they are still powered and run by oil. Nothing is done in our economy that doesn't require energy to produce it. If there is an energy shortage or disruption in the flow of oil to any western economy, that economy will suffer. The failure of the Democratic Senate to pass an energy bill makes the US economy much more vulnerable to an energy supply shock. The price of oil has jumped over $7 over the past three weeks with about $5 out of the $7 accounted for as a Middle East risk premium. If the Arab world decides to use the oil weapon, western economies in Europe, Japan, and Asia, as well as the U.S., would greatly be affected. The problem at the moment is that politics once again is dominating the oil markets. In the Middle East and Venezuela, OPEC's fourth largest exporter is beset by strikes, oil production could be sharply curtailed. Throw in an unusual weather pattern forming with El Ni--o, and demand for energy could soar. As pointed out in Hubberts Peak, weather has proven to be the deciding factor when determining demand for energy.

Black Blade: The situation for energy could become critical not so much due to oil imports (though that could certainly happen), rather it is the whole energy picture. Natural gas is not imported to any significant degree, and yet exploration and production is falling off fast due to relatively low prices and a perceived temporary supply overhang. This will come back to bite us this coming fall through winter. This summer we are likely to experience much warmer weather due to El Ni--o effects if the NOAA projections are correct. Many nuclear power plants may be shutdown this year for NRC mandated inspections and possible repairs. Some coal power plants will likely be restricted in output as all available "carbon credits" are spoken for. Also the attrition of older power plants being shutdown and the building of new NG-fired power plants could create another round of "energy crises" this next year. When we get a reprieve to remedy a crisis situation we just blow it off - we just never learn. Scratch one economic recovery.

silvesterOn Singlion & a question#7311504/10/02; 20:08:52

Even if he has taken good notes like many of us, it is good hear again. I think we're on right trail.

Many belive our currency timeline will end with hyper-inflation. Just how does hyper-inflation end?

Black BladeLoophole inflates earnings#7311604/10/02; 20:09:45

Effects of stock option costs


How earnings of the S&P 500's largest companies would drop if companies included stock-option costs in earnings An accounting loophole that lets companies leave the cost of stock options off their books, now under fire in Congress, gave earnings last year an even bigger lift than before.

Earnings would have been 10% lower last fiscal year at the 50 largest companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 that have filed year-end results had they counted options as an expense, according to a USA TODAY analysis. That's even greater than the 6% hit the same companies would have suffered during fiscal 2000.

What's more, under the loophole these same companies cut their tax bills by an estimated $10.1 billion in 2001 by deducting the costs of options, as is allowed by current rules.

Black Blade: Just one of the tricks of the accounting scandal trade that we have been watching for some months now. But truthfully, I seriously doubt that we will see any meaningful laws to fight this abuse of the shareholder who are the companies "true owners".

miner49erYufu - Blade, All -- this is CLASSIC!#7311704/10/02; 20:16:58

Great catch!! I read the blip about yufu, did a google on it, and found this gem of an article... A must read for the understanding of currency, and exchange...!

------ Some snips: (but read the whole thing...)

Recession-ravaged residents of this tiny hot-springs town found a way to improve their standard of living. Stuck with low-paying and seasonal tourism-related jobs, Yufuin's citizens solved a chronic yen-flow problem by boosting the local monetary supply: they print their own currency.

In Yufuin you can get a taxi ride, buy a bottle of sake, eat lunch, book a train ticket and supplement your wardrobe using a self-generated scrip the townspeople call yufu. "The yen isn't very stable anyway, is it?" says Ryuji Urata, a 38-year-old liquor-store owner who came up with the scheme two years ago. "So instead of being subject to what the national government does, we have our own strong currency."

[ ... ]

Still, the scrip has value BECAUSE VILLAGERS AGREE THAT IT DOES. <emphasis mine>

The system is a form of barter.

[ ... ]

Barter allows villagers with little cash to trade labor for life's small necessities. When resident Tetsuro Yamamoto came down with a serious illness and had to be hospitalized last year, the group lavished yufu on him, which he used to pay part-time workers to assist his wife at their restaurant. "The government doesn't give me that kind of help," he says. "Yufu saved my life."

[ and now the real beauties... ]

Says Eisuke Sakakibara, the former Vice Finance Minister known as "Mr. Yen": "There's no deep implication to this. [ ... ] In the end I think people want real money." <peals of laughter>

Sometimes, though, the pretend money will do just fine. "It's all based on trust and credibility," says Mutsumi Nagai, a Yufuin restaurant owner... <bingo>

Of course, basing financial transactions on trust instead of the national currency involves certain risks. <more peals of laughter>

If villagers can individually mint hundreds or even thousands of yufu, what's to prevent hyperinflation, with the locals carting wheelbarrows of Monopoly money to the neighborhood izakaya (bar)? <this is surreal>

[ ... and finally ... ]

Checks and balances exist. Every yufu user is required to sign the notes they issue.

Ultimately they will be called upon to redeem those notes by performing a service for the bearer. The specter of weeks spent washing other people's clothes after a yufu spending spree at the sake shop EFFECTIVELY LIMITS THE MONEY SUPPLY. <emphasis mine>

The moral: being your own central bank isn't so much fun when the yufu stops here.

------ End snips

No need for any comments (phew, I can hear them say...). Let me only add a personal anecdote that I think dovetails with this in pointing out what is almost an innate sense we have, of how to do it, when it comes to "money."

Some time ago, my children were playing Lego. They had industriously built quite an extensive society of homes, and tree-lined avenues with all sorts of enterprises along the thoroughfare (...use your imagination, you were all kids once, too).

They were using a particular type of Lego block for "money." (Actually, they were some type of Lego-look alike, and frankly, an ugly sort of beige...) I watched them for awhile, and then asked my nine-year old, who was busy building a ship or something, why he didn't use these white pieces (as they seemed much more numerous...)

Without looking up, or stopping his work, he just said in his characteristic, matter-of-fact way, "'Cause that wouldn't be any fun." "Why not?" I asked. Still without looking up, or breaking concentration, he replied, "'Cause there's too many of them..."

(Out of the mouths of babes...)

Black BladeJapanese money supply growth accelerates#7311904/10/02; 20:21:51


Japan's March money supply grew at its fastest pace in two years, figures released by the central bank showed on Wednesday, but the increase was attributed primarily to investor jitters, prompted by the relative instability of Japan's debt-laden banks.

The news comes as the Bank of Japan kicks off its two-day policy meeting, where it is likely to leave monetary policy unchanged, despite evidence that the Japan's recovery from its recession will be relatively flat. Data released on Wednesday showed that lending by Japanese banks fell 4.5 per cent in March, year-on-year, reflecting nearly a full year of decline.

The money supply data showed that Japanese investors preferred to hold more liquid assets such as cash. In addition, the end to Japan's guarantees on bank deposits on March 31 caused investors to pull their assets out of banks and instead hoard cash or buy gold.

Black Blade: Yep, as I already stated.

R PowellSilver news#7312004/10/02; 20:23:27

If I managed to copy the link correctly it will lead to a good article. There's nothing earth shattering but its a confirmation of what many of us have been thinking. There's an estimate of available supply at 500 million ounces with yearly demand approaching 900 million and, of course, the ongoing yearly deficit. 2002 will be the 13th in a row. Mention is made that much of that 500 million guesstimate is not for sale at the current low price. The U.S. government alone once held billions of ounces so it stands to reason that the last remaining silver stashes will not be sold cheaply. Myself, my coins are simply not for sale (how much am I bid?) The 2002 silver survey is not yet available but word has leaked out that CPM has revised its 2001 deficit number downward to 80-90 million ounces. This, I believe, is also a guess but probably the best one available. It would not surprise me to see 2001 useage down as industrial use was probably down with the economic slowdown. Hope I got the link right. I tried to copy and paste but it did not work. Does transfering links this way require some trick I'm not aware of??
Funny that the U.S. markets used to lower PM prices coming out of Europe and now the buyers seem to be here rather than in London. What up?

Black BladeStrike touches off violence in Venezuela#7312104/10/02; 20:47:43


CARACAS, Venezuela -- Venezuela's government and its opposition engaged in an escalating game of brinksmanship today that jeopardized the country's oil exports and triggered scattered street violence in several cities.

A 48-hour strike appeared to be losing steam today, but oil officials acknowledged for the first time that a slowdown at Petroleos de Venezuela was creating supply problems. The conflict erupted after Chavez angered longtime employees by naming new management at PDVSA, one of the world's largest oil companies. Venezuela said it had released buyers and sellers from completing contracts with PDVSA, citing disruptions in supplies. "Shipments will be delayed and the situation obviously is not normal," PDVSA Vice President and board member Jorge Kamkoff said.

Combined with Iraq's suspension of oil exports to Israel's allies, Venezuela's oil troubles stirred concern abroad. Major refineries in the world's No. 4 oil producer are running below capacity, and tankers are lined up at ports.

In Washington, Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham said the Bush administration was closely watching events. "Various people in the administration are obviously monitoring both of these things (Iraq and Venezuela), and we're keeping in touch with each other," he said.

An army general -- the fifth officer in recent months -- accused Chavez of politicizing the armed forces and lying to Venezuelans about the presence of Colombian guerrillas along Venezuela's western frontier. "Mr. President, you have betrayed the country," Brig. Gen. Nestor Gonzalez Gonzalez told a news conference. "Respect the national armed forces."

Black Blade: It appears that the situation in Venezuela is deteriorating. El Presidente is losing support among his top brass while rebels (actually bandits) from Colombia mass on the western border. Meanwhile US oil supply is in jeopardy.

R PowellHappiness#7312204/10/02; 20:50:22

Is a link that works. Thanks to AlterEgo next door which is where I found it.
Miner49, great work. My first reaction was that the government would try to surpress this on the grounds that its counter-fiat and the IRS would be there to collect tufu taxes on all taxable transactions. I used to live in the Berkshire hills of Western MA. There was a steady subculture of barter type business among the working folk of the hilltowns outside the cities. Problem was that everyone was poor so while you can survive, no matter what you did real financial advances were very seldom seen.
However, it was a much less stressful manner of living. In seven years there, we never locked the back door to the house. Good thing to, I never had a key.
We also had a true artisian well. We supplied many neighbors during the dry season when hand dug wells often went dry. For this we never charged but we recieved favors instead, like free babysitting from those wanting to take a shower (running water!) Nothing was taxed. Money was not only not exchanged but often not thought of. Funny how memories become selective over time. There were some tough times and tough people there as well.

YGMMedia, Analysts, PM Funds Promoters, Hedge Adjustments, Other ass'rtd Factors..#7312304/10/02; 20:52:48

Must seem like a bad dream to Cabal & all w/ interest in Gold suppression..

You know the mainstream media covers where the best action is and chases it's own tail (near plagurism of the other guys commentary) so to my way of thinking those with a vested interest in suppression of Gold and Silver prices must be worried like never before. The hyperbole surrounding Gold, crooked accounting, economies, banks and public co's nearly under water is escalating more rapidly almost daily. Then add GATA to the list and the new interest being given to it in press. (ie:Europe,Russia) Soon all these factors and probably some as yet unforseen ones added to the mix will push the negative hype to the point of no return. We have truly entered a new dimension of public knowledge and interest with respect to Gold and PM stocks, compared to that which we've suffered thru for many years......About time! Now the wait becomes much easier for many.....Greenspan must feel akin to the Capt.of the Exxon Valdez waking from a drunken sleep....YGM
R PowellSilvester#7312404/10/02; 21:07:26

"just how does hyper-inflation end?"

About a month or so ago I read a good account of the exactly such a situation. It's titled "When Money Dies" by Adam Ferguson. It was hard to get a copy as it's out of print.
It recounts the hyper devaluation of the mark in early 1920s Germany after WW1. I found it fascinating and a little scary. Think of having to spend your daily pay on your way home from work while it still could but something. Think of the government adding zeros on the bills' denominations and even then having the bills basically worthless by the time the printer delivered them. Imagine the government totally broke as the cost of collecting taxes is inflating faster than the value of what is collected. Fixed income people sometimes starved and farmers sometimes paid off mortgages with the partial profit from one year's crop. There was a total civil breakdown, the perfect environment for a new strong fascist dictator. Scary, no!
And yes, gold and silver saved many lives!!!!

DOWNUNDERgoldfool--msg 73092 --Current violence in the ME not going to abate until Saddam is removed from power.#7312504/10/02; 21:11:51

I've read your post several times & am sure that you are coming at this subject from a biased hard line Jewish perspective. This is not the forum to promote that line.

What about the hundreds of innocent Palestinian men, women & children that are killed? Their refugee camps & homes are being trashed & their survival infrastructure is being demolished --on a daily basis. If YOUR family were being treated like this what would YOU do? (Its rhetorical-please don't respond)

A goodly part of this whole problem HAS to be laid at the feet of the Israeli Govts --past & present because of their lack of common sense! They have continually let religious fanatical zealots build settlements on Palestinian land. They
Have continuously bulldozed homes & buildings & paid NO compensation.

As far as I'm concerned --good on Saddam!

timbervisionminer49er#7312604/10/02; 21:22:57

Hi miner49er, thanks a bullion for the great response. I read it this morning but didn't have a chance to respond until now. Given today's nice action in mining stocks compared to the smaller relative spike in gold it would seem that the market has not yet appreciated the pending disconnect. Do you envisage the US dollar's slide from its present state of "stability and predictability" to be a cataclysmic one and would there be any identifiable warning signs? Or are we already seeing them? I can believe that the Goldman Sachs report yesterday that gold will top out at 300 for the next year and a half may be one such sign.



With hedging practices being modified and a new trading
range developing for Spot Gold, it is instructive to look
back at the last twelve months to get an idea what P/E ratios and dividend yields exist now based on current
closing stock prices. (Alphabetical Order )


1. Anglo Gold 4-10-02 JSE 22.22 3.5

2. Barrick 4-10-02 NYSE 98.83 1.2

3. Gold Fields 4-10-02 JSE 44.25 1.18

4. Harmony 4-10-02 JSE 33.78 1.16

5. Newmont 4-10-02 NYSE Earnings Loss .40

6. Placer Dome 4-10-02 NYSE Earnings Loss .80



With hedging practices being modified and a new trading
range developing for Spot Gold, it is instructive to look
back at the last twelve months to get an idea what P/E ratios and
dividend yields exist now based on current
closing stock prices. (Alphabetical Order )
1. Anglo Gold 4-10-02 JSE 22.22 3.5
2. Barrick 4-10-02 NYSE 98.83 1.2
3. Gold Fields 4-10-02 JSE 44.25 1.18
4. Harmony 4-10-02 JSE 33.78 1.16
5. Newmont 4-10-02 NYSE Earnings Loss .40
6. Placer Dome 4-10-02 NYSE Earnings Loss .80



With hedging practices being modified and a new trading
range developing for Spot Gold, it is instructive to look
back at the last twelve months to get an idea what P/E ratios and
dividend yields exist now based on current
closing stock prices. (Alphabetical Order )


1. Anglo Gold 4-10-02 JSE- P/E 22.22 DIV 3.5

2. Barrick 4-10-02 NYSE- P/E 98.83 DIV 1.2

3. Gold Fields 4-10-02JSE- P/E 44.25 DIV 1.18

4. Harmony 4-10-02 JSE- P/E 33.78 DIV 1.16

5. Newmont 4-10-02 NYSE-P/E Earn Loss DIV .40

6. Placer Dome 4-10-02 NYSE-P/E Earn Loss DIV .80

The CoinGuySpitzer on the Prowl...New York Probe of Wall Street Banks expands.#7313004/10/02; 23:06:14{840C7F40-AD12-4578-9C77-AE5AE2238E99}&siteid=mktw

I'm not holding my breath, but it's a start.

N.Y. probe of Wall St. banks expands
Goldman, Lehman, Salomon, Morgan reportedly named

By Allen Wan,
Last Update: 5:34 PM ET April 10, 2002

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Prosecutors have widened their investigation into the alleged conflict of interests of Wall Street analysts to include at least eight investment banks, the state attorney general's office said Wednesday.

Juanita Scarlett, a spokeswoman for Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, wouldn't confirm the names of those firms or how many have been subpoenaed, but said that they comprised all the major investment banks.

The Financial Times named Morgan Stanley (MWD: news, chart, profile) and Credit Suisse First Boston, a unit of the Credit Suisse Group (CSR: news, chart, profile), as targets of the investigation over their research practices. Goldman Sachs (GS: news, chart, profile), Lehman Bros. (LEH: news, chart, profile), UBS Paine Webber (UBS: news, chart, profile) and Salomon Smith Barney were also on the list, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.

Some of these banks have received subpoenas, while other will get them shortly, the Journal said, citing people close to the inquiry.

(the rest of the article is at the link above)

Black Blade: Read in IBD yesterday about a major refinery in St. Criox, VI closing down putting pressure on gasoline prices here in the U.S. They didn't mention how long the refinery would be closed, or the reasons for the closure. Heard anything?

The CoinGuy

Black BladeVenezuela strike is extended #7313104/10/02; 23:09:47

Chavez accuses the strikers of trying to overthrow him


Venezuela's largest labour and business confederations have announced that they will continue a 48-hour general strike indefinitely. "We have agreed on an indefinite general strike," union leader Carlos Ortega said at the end of the two-day stoppage, which was called in support of workers and managers of the state-owned oil company PDVSA. The strike was called by the million-strong main union confederation

Venezuela is the world's fourth largest oil exporter and on Wednesday a senior PDVSA official acknowledged for the first time that its exports had been affected. The strike could also cause more nervousness in the global oil market following Iraq's decision to suspend oil exports for 30 days.

Black Blade: Extended indefinitely. That combined with the Iraqi embargo and OPEC production cuts will likely rattle the Petroleum markets.

Sierra MadreMiner49er...fascinating post about the "Yufu" in Japan....#7313204/10/02; 23:13:19

There is more than meets the eye to this Yufu scheme. It's not so crazy, I think.

I think one can discover a certain relationship between the Yufu and the origin of banknotes.

The Scots developed a very fine system of banking, and it produced banknotes which did not work as today. They were redeemable in gold, at sight. The system survived until swallowed up by the Bank of England, probably by force. (I am not well-versed in the precise facts of that story.)

The banks of the time, would discount Bills. Bills were what we would call invoices for the delivery of goods. Discountable bills were those drawn on ("invoices payable by") reputable merchants for goods produced and delivered to them, such goods to be sold in a term of not over 90 days, and bearing two good signatures: the signature of the seller and that of the buyer. Both were liable for prompt payment of the discounted note and if not paid within 24 hours of due date, action for collection resulted in the immediate bankruptcy of either or both the signers of the Bill.

The holder of a Bill who discounted it, might get either gold or Notes in exchange. The notes were redeemable at sight, so the bankers were careful always to maintain a sufficient supply of gold for redemptions.

Thus the volume of Notes in circulation was regulated by the volume of real, bonfide commerce in goods to be sold in 90 days. Not inflationary!

This was a excellent system and since the consequences of abuse were so drastic, both bankers and merchants were extremely cautious in their dealings - as they should be. The result was prosperous commerce and sound money, together.

Much more has been written on this honest use of paper money by Antal E. Fekete. Not ALL paper money has been dishonest!

I see some connection between the "Yufu" and this system, now defunct - for the shame of mankind.

A Bill for goods to be sold and paid for in 90 days, is the next best thing to gold, and as Fekete has said, such Bills would circulate under their own intrinsic worth, with or without banks. Thus the banks became a facilitating factor, substituting for the individual Bill, a Note which was a proxy or, yes - a derivative! - of the Bill.

I hope the "Yufu" works for the people of that town in Japan. It just might, if not abused. Good for them!

One of these days, some commercial banker somewhere may remember what the original function of commercial banking was, and begin to discount Bills again, rather than financing cars which are going to be paid in 5 YEARS and credit card consumer finance, where the asset financed goes down the throat of the consumer.

I understand Larry Parks of "FAME" is going to publish Fekete´s forthcoming book.


Black BladeCoin Guy - Refinery Outage#7313304/10/02; 23:16:23

I am unaware of this particular refinery problem. However, I might add that Venezuelan refineries supply US gasoline since we cannot refine enough for ourselves due to a severe lack of refining capacity. Now with the strike we could see crude inventories dwindle, gasoline prices spike, and gasoline shortages in selected markets (probably on the east coast).
RockgrabberUSA Gold, Good promo idea for you#7313404/10/02; 23:27:37

You should have shirts made up that read "GOT GOLD?". Then have your You can give them out to clients, or sell them, I would buy a few. What fun that would be to wear out. I can even picture the sinking feelings in folks gut just reading that out in public. hehehehe.
The CoinGuyBB: did a little research...#7313504/10/02; 23:30:43

CHRISTIANSTED, U.S. Virgin Islands (AP) -- An explosion on Tuesday rocked Hovensa, the hemisphere's largest oil refinery, seriously burning at least one person and forcing a halt in operations.

about all I could find,

The CoinGuy

skiMove over PM bugs ... others are on the way.#731364/11/02; 00:37:25

.. the link does not want to work

Like it or not, it looks as though mainstream investors are on the way into the PM sector according to my interpretation of this recent AP news item.

From the recent story: "RYDEX offers an new SECTOR ROTATION FUND. The premise of sector rotation ... and the fund .. is to put money into segments of the market believed to be hot, and get out of those that appear to be fizzlng. Each month the fund manager will calculate the precious 12-month price appreciation for the 59 sectors that make up the S&P 1,500 index. He will then identify the 10 sectors that have had the biggest gains and buy stocks within those areas. ..... There are presently 14,000 U.S. stock funds."

Ski .... Here they come. I can't possibly see how this fund manager can avoid buying PM stocks due to their spectacular performance over the last year or so. This new fund just opened for business at the end of March. They can't have a whole lot of investment money at this point .... but all major trend changes have similar humble beginnings.

BelgianUnderground gold Hedging....#731374/11/02; 01:26:17

Any miner saying (pretending) that he is/will "running down (close) the hedge book"...suggests 2 different operations possible :

1/ The existing gold deliveries are done on expiry dates and the hedge contract is not renewed.

2/ Mobilize cash > buy Physical in spotmarket > deliver at hedge expiry date > keep/mine, the underground reserves with rising prices or constructing a floor (POG-Bottom) !?

AU hedges (+/-500 tonnes) go under at POG > 308$ ! Pretty close hé boys and girls ! ABX hedges at 345$ with even more tonnes ! Imagine that total of 3.000 tonnes that should start panicking ? Mamma Mia.

Theoretically, AU could sink ABX if the market-conditions should allow it (AU) to do so ( not a suggestion for actually doing it - bad boy ! ). Ohhhh, let them (AU/ABX) play and run these terrible risks. *WE* The Physical Holders-Advocates haven't hedged and paid already for what we have/possess.
Where I'm convinced MK doesn't sell on credit or yufus (smile Sir).

Black BladeEvolving Role of Gold - BIS#731384/11/02; 03:29:07

This is a 7 page pdf file.
Black BladeGold tea set stolen from SA's parliament #731394/11/02; 03:34:53,3,46929.jsp


South Africa's rampant crime rate continues with a report that a solid gold tea set worth millions has been stolen from the Presidential offices at Tuynhuys in the country's parliamentary capital.

CAPE TOWN: The missing items, a teapot, milk jug, sugar bowl, and tray with ivory handles, had been a gift to the South African government from the British royal family in 1952. It's value is reckoned by in the region of R3 million, and authorities fear that the thief will melt it down in order to sell the metal. The thief had taken the set out of its case, which had been left in a safe.

The South African parliamentary complex has been plagued by theft for years. Among other items, the historic five-carat Mendelssohn diamond was stolen from its display cabinet in the parliamentary library in mid-1999. An employee was subsequently arrested and the diamond recovered.

Black Blade: Some one went through a lot of trouble over a barbarous relic.

Black BladeGold price revives as AngloGold reduces hedging#731404/11/02; 03:52:48


South African gold giant AngloGold said overnight it is aggressively running down its hedge book due to current market conditions and prices, causing an upward surge in the gold price back above $US300 an ounce.

Financial director Jonathan Best told journalists in South Africa that while the company has not changed its hedging policy per se, it had cut back its hedge position substantially during the March quarter. He said AngloGold is taking out weaker positions in its hedge book so that going forward it does not have a period where it is receiving lower prices or incurring an opportunity loss.

Black Blade: When AngloGold and Newmont-Nevada Franco were on a bidding war for Normandy I had mentioned this as a possibility. AngloGold is desperate and their hedges are about to drag them under. They had no choice but to either acquire other companies to feed their hedge book (difficult now that NEM stuck it to them), or to drastically unwind their hedge book. Even so, they are in a difficult situation. Either unwind the hedge book driving prices higher and face risk margin requirements, or desperately look for other takeover targets with dwindling funds to feed the voracious hedge book.

UsulMarket report#731414/11/02; 05:27:18

"... traders in London failed to join the party mood. They said they did not trust Wall Street's sudden burst of euphoria and were not going to be lured into chasing share prices higher..."

Perhaps Enron, Arthur Andersen, New York's attorney general's investigation into alleged conflicts of interest by Wall Street analysts, "pro-forma" results, the so-called "Greenspan Put," "seasonal adjustments", "hedonic price deflators" etcetera is weighing on their minds?

Black BladeYen Snaps Rally as Japan Raises Warning#731424/11/02; 06:04:51


LONDON (Reuters) - The yen retreated from recent three-week highs against the dollar and euro on Thursday after Japan indicated its concern over the currency's export-crimping strength.

Senior Japanese Finance Ministry official Zembei Mizoguchi warned he was watching foreign exchange moves closely, noting the yen's strength was not justified by current economic conditions. His comments came just a day after Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa cautioned that an excessive rise in the yen would be a problem.

``Japan still sees a weak currency as a tool in the pro- growth, anti-deflation battle and is not keen for the yen to strengthen just yet,'' said Shahab Jalinoos, currency strategist at UBS Warburg.

Black Blade: A weak Yen policy looks like a clear signal for more Japanese Gold buying. Shades of Argentina? Hmmm…

miner49erSierra Madre @ 73132 - Yufus, Scot's redeemable notes, etc...#731434/11/02; 06:15:00

Yes Sir! You are correct. I don't think the idea, and what these folks in Japan are practicing with the Yufu is crazy at all... (My annotations about "peals of laughter," etc. had to do with the stuffed-man, automoton responses of the establishment.)

I think there is a wealth to be learned simply by meditating on the prospects, and consequences of this endeavor. It would be a great case study to watch how things unfold here over the next 12-18 mos. Who will try to take advantage of the system? Will the government stop it, or subsume it? Will they try to evolve it to handle more complex operations? Or will they prudently recognize certain limits?

Good supplementary info about the Scots, too. It is a good point where you say, "Not ALL paper money has been dishonest!" Indeed, it is just another medium. If it evolves of its own, as the commerce requirements of a culture naturally demand it, for the purpose of "facilitating exchange," (i.e., make it easier to do what they need to do, anyway...), good on 'em...

The downside is introduced when mankind, as it is prone, ends up somehow abusing, and finally trashing it. Maybe sort of like re-phrasing the saying: "Paper doesn't kill systems, people kill systems."

Best regards,

Cavan ManHas Wolfowitz gone mad?#731444/11/02; 06:55:56

White House backs strong defense of Taiwan
By Bill Gertz

The Bush administration will do "whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan from military strikes by China, according to a recent closed-door speech by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz that drew an angry response from China yesterday.

"As President Bush and others have said, the United States is committed to doing whatever it takes to help Taiwan defend itself," Mr. Wolfowitz said March 11 in Florida at a meeting of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council, an industry group.

We're fighting the WAT, a Vietnam style conflict in Afghanistan, we've told Iraq we're coming and declared against Iran and North Korea. Is anybody writing their Congressman?

LeSinBush Reckless Language - Threats - Only serve to De-Stabalize - Go Gold#731454/11/02; 06:56:29

April 11, 2002

White House backs strong defense of Taiwan
By Bill Gertz

The Bush administration will do "whatever it takes" to defend Taiwan from military strikes by China, according to a recent closed-door speech by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz that drew an angry response from China yesterday.

"As President Bush and others have said, the United States is committed to doing whatever it takes to help Taiwan defend itself," Mr. Wolfowitz said March 11 in Florida at a meeting of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council, an

Snip: -----------------------------------------------------

"What ever it takes" sounds like sport shoe add.

Bush,His Gov & Team's choice of reckless, cowboy, punk unsportsman like language is certainly doing USA foriegn policy irreperable harm. Does he think he is living in a John Wayne western movie, re; Bin Laden, 'we're gonna smoke um out, we're gunna roundum up' Hello! Send this wannnbe Cowboy home to the Rio Grande to chase wet backs.

Please excuse me, however Bush and his team parading around the world with tough talk, reckless language, veiled
and unveiled threats of war and the use of nukes and disinfranchising allies is scary to say the least. Bush and his team daily remind me of Nazi Germany after all Hitler only wanted Europe, Russia, Poland, North Africa, UK and the bits in between. National Security and identification of individuals and ethnic groups in the nation was paramount. Loss of civil liberties in exchange of national security was undertaken and achieved. Daily I am less worried about Saddam Hussain and more fearful of Bush & USA.
I was born and spent my first 30 years there in good old USA. After all what country was not afraid to use weapons of mass destruction on civilians and still threatening so?
Nappon (spelling) gas fire balls on civilians in Viet Nam?

You boys in the USA better send your boss a message that he understands: The World is not his Texas ranch and his red-neck pick-up truck image is wearing thin. As a matter fact
"down-right-embarrassing" Thar you go- put that in your peace pipe- dubya

Having now completed my tirade/rant- All of this sadly will
be simply wonderful for physical gold holders- Go get somemore cowboys and cowgirls. "S"


LeSinRepeat of Article#731464/11/02; 07:02:39

Cavan Man
Sorry I must have been venting while you posted the same article. Like your views and contributions to this site.
While I am here, I too like Singlion views and contributions
when I lurk at GE forum. I have a few times past copied some of his statements here.

Cheers and good night from the wonderful land of OZ Down Under "S"

LeSinNow Yemen Too - George Get that Little Yemen They Surely are Terrrorist Too#731474/11/02; 07:13:55

Tehran Times [April 11] snippet:
SANAA - Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has urged countries neighboring Israel to let Yemeni troops in to fight alongside the Palestinians. "If our brothers in the countries (bordering Israel) allow it, we are prepared to send our sons and our youth to fight alongside our brothers in Palestine,....."

"The next battle will be decisive when the borders are open before the Mujahedin and the Arab fighter to support their Palestinian brethren," Saleh said, quoted by the official Saba news agency. Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria all border Israel and the Palestinian territories. Yemen was "determined to support President Yasser Arafat and the heroic Palestinian people by sending funds and (military) equipment because the war is not yet over......"

Good night for sure - "S"

UsulManipulation?#731484/11/02; 07:37:27

Did the US Treasury move government pension fund money into stocks?
YGMBB...You missed the rest.....#731494/11/02; 08:37:28

All BIS Gold commentary since 96...Quite interesting to look back upon. Time consuming tho...YGM.
Siochain@Cavan Man#731504/11/02; 08:57:59

Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz is one of the hawks I've mentioned in the past who really scares me...."right" from the beginning of Bush's term he has been out front in wanting to take down Iraq matter what...among other countries.

You may recall that Time ran a cover plus an extensive article on 9/10 before WTC ...asking about Colin Powell...missing in action...and power.

The gist was that Powell was being pushed aside in favor of some extreme right wing hawks and chief among whom was Wolfowitz ... one of Powell's chief adversary.

Wolfowitz appears to have a lot of influence...and IMO rigid one way thinking.

Stock Note;;;Isn't it nice to see M/L drop 5% ...and JPM 3% so far today...couldn't happen to a ..uh...more manipulative group!

YGMME Peace? ............. Not if "MadMan Insane" can help it!#731514/11/02; 08:58:43

Just another thorn in the Gold Manipulators butts.....
Pretty sad that we have to look to a world in chaos to see reality come about in the financial world......YGM

YGMA Preview of " Future News ".....#731524/11/02; 09:08:00

@ WND......"Could GOLD hit $1,000 an ounce?"

It may not be a news story yet and only a commentary for advertising now, BUT it sure must be catching alot of folks attention just the same. It has my vote for best (semi) news caption to hit the cyber media sites yet.......YGM


Siochain@ Black Blade#731534/11/02; 09:10:02

Your articles and commentaries on oil and natural gas have been quiye helpful.

I was wondering if you have an opinion of energy options for the future (both for individuals and for the Country)....and which looks most likely/possible....from natural gas to coal to solar power to?????

USAGOLDBundesbank to Dump Dollars#731544/11/02; 09:20:39

Central Bank Policy May Drive Currency to Depths of Hell (USAGN, 4/11/02) Bundesbank vice president Juergen Stark announced today that the central bank would continue its policy of dumping dollars. Simultaneously, the bank official reiterated the German central bank's position that it would not be selling gold over the next two to three years, delivering a blow to dollar holders internationally, and inspiring gold investors to add to their holdings.

Stark also said that even if the Bundesbank sold gold after 2004, it would only be in small amounts to prop up the German stock market through the purchase of index options. He also said that the dollar sales were not because of any grudge it might hold against the dollar or dollar holders, or the result of "any kind of hidden currency intervention" but "with the high dollar and low euro last year it seemed right to sell that amount."

Bundesbank President Ernst Welteke said that proceeds from the sale of gold will be used to purchase stock indice options like the Stoxx 50, rather than individual stocks. Governments more and more are moving toward a policy of manipulating recalcitrant stock markets which might collapse otherwise and leave the nation's citizenry with little or nothing in their retirement plans.

Companies included in the Stoxx 50 immediately released statements that they do not think the government is playing favorites, but doing what is best for the country. The rest of Germany's businesses were left in a quandary over just how the government might help boost their stock values. "There's more to Germany than 50 companies," one company representative told USAGOLD News, "We're going to start a new Index Fund for Stark and Welteke to invest in." Both Stark and Welteke refused to comment on suggestions by reporters that they start a hedge fund so that they can play both sides of the market.

The policy of central bank dollar sales has been instigated by officials wanting to get a better return on their reserves and could encourage widespread dumping by the world's central banks, said one London gold trader. Neither the U.S. Treasury Department nor the World Gold Council were available for comment. Stark explained that "ever since 2000 it has been following a policy of continually reducing its dollar positions over the market."

Welteke said that he believes the agreement the sale of gold by central banks would be renewed in 2004 and he just wanted to make sure that the Swiss or the Brits didn't push the German bank to the back of the line. "After all," he said, "fair is fair. They got to sell gold the last time and nobody even let us sell a single ounce." Welteke stunned the financial world recently when he said he wanted to sell the German people's gold to buy his favorite stocks -- none of which (of course) were in his or his family's portfolio.

USAGOLD News will be following this story with much interest in the weeks and months ahead.

CoBra(too)@ USAGOLD#731554/11/02; 09:40:30

Hello MK,

You sure beat me to that story. The difference of opinion between Jürgen Stark and Ernst Wetelke is indeed stark to pathetic.

Austria in the meantime just had its own pathetic little (un-)popular referendum, which only achieved 700K votes. Incidentally it was the socialist plan to amend the constitution to underwrite a total wellfare plan. Not to different from Wetelke's plan to use the proceeds of gold sales to prop the SM's in order to save retirement funds.

This is the ultimate recommendation to privately hold gold -or the capitulation of fiat and financial assets. Also see IBM and GE - the real Bell-weather's of the SM's are sinking -fast.

Got your golden raft? - cb2

Cavan ManUSAGOLD73154#731564/11/02; 09:42:43

A "coming out"?

Trail marker
Cavan Man@CB (too)#731574/11/02; 09:45:46

Agree. When officialdom publicly acknowledges the need to support financial assets by whatever means it is time for GOLD!

Thanks Mr. Stark for the testimonial. I know you completely understand the method to you madness (or do you?)

YGMCommentary......#731584/11/02; 09:49:56

From another Gold Site......5 % = 25,000 T of AU!!!

With equivalent of $5 trillion dollars (US) of public savings held in a potentially insolvent Japanese banking system, earning near zero interest, denominated in a depreciating Japanese currency, the Japanese are seeking safer 'alternatives'. And that appears to be gold!

With government bank savings guarantee being scaled back to $75,208 per saver, the Japanese are removing cash from bank savings accounts like mad and buying physical gold. Who can blame them?

This currently accounts for only a trickle of total world gold buying so far. But, the Japanese have watched gold appreciate 40% in Yen terms in just over a year and now the investment volumes are rising.

Concern about the Japanese economy, the state of the country's banks and now unease about tensions in the Middle East are continuing to send the Japanese public to their nearest gold shop to stock up on the precious metal.

Japanese households bought Y24bn (US$180m) of gold in February, according to JP Morgan, and gold imports increased more than seven times from February 2001 to almost 20,000kg.

"It is certainly possible that a rise in demand for gold bars in Japan raised the international price of gold in February," said Masaaki Kanno, economist at JP Morgan. "The estimated purchase of gold in January and February is only 0.2 per cent of annual savings by the household sector. This implies that the impact of a change in Japanese householders' investments can be so big that it could affect the global market prices of financial assets."

A 5% Japanese public savings allocation to gold, which is being mentioned in Japanese investment circles as prudent and conservative, would translate into 25,000 tonnes of demand. If the Japanese investors alone were to create a wave of gold buying, they could nearly empty every central bank in the world of their gold holdings.

While we're not predicting that to happen, it's important to realize that there's already a short-fall between current gold demand and newly mined gold. Now that the Bank of England has ended all gold sales, the question becomes one of "Where will the fresh supply of physical gold come from to meet the already high demand?"

Most importantly, what will happen to gold prices this year, if anything triggers this potentially explosive Japanese demand for gold?

YGMAnother article from same site.....#731594/11/02; 09:53:35

Mining Trust....(possibly a repost)

By: Ken Gooding
Posted: 2002/03/17 Sun 18:45 ZE2 | © Miningweb 1997-2002

LONDON - Merrill Lynch World Mining Trust (LSE:MLW) has been aggressively building up its gold holdings, a move that has included, among other things, buying US$2.74 million-worth of the Bank of England's bullion. "Gold is looking more interesting than it has been for a very long time," Graham Birch, the investment manager, pointed out when Miningweb discussed the Trust's performance ahead of its annual meeting on March 27. "There are now some hints of investment interest appearing – and it's investment demand that powers bull markets for gold."

By the end of last year the Trust, which has a market value of about £200 million, had boosted gold's share of the portfolio to 25 percent of the net asset value, Birch reveals in his annual report. That compares with 16 percent of NAV at the end of 2000.

The Trust mainly invests in gold shares but is permitted to hold bullion. And it was among the successful bidders at the Bank of England's gold auction at the end of November. It bought 10,000 ounces of bullion at US$273.50 an ounce. This proved to be good timing because, although the price has not exactly raced away, the Trust is showing a profit of about US$175,000, or 6 percent, in less than four months.

YGMMarc Faber Report..Apr 7/02#731604/11/02; 10:02:17

More good reading.....
BoilermakerJames Grant on CNBC#731614/11/02; 10:02:23

I just saw James Grant (Interest Rate Observer) give a strong thumbs up for gold on a CNBC interview. He reasoned that Japanese, US and Euro CB's have tilted the paper vs. gold game in favor of gold due to low interest rates and high paper growth. He sees a consumer revolt stirring against currency and a long term bull market starting in gold. He offered no specific ways to play this market.
YGMFaber Report...#731624/11/02; 10:09:58

Use Market Commentary button to view...

This is subscription only site, but Market Cammentary is viewable.....
BelgianOOOhhhh Neil....#731634/11/02; 10:26:56

O'Neil iterates, that the policy of a strong dollar will be continued/maintained and US exporters must adapt to the exchanges !!! (Basta !) Hedge your US$ and keep moving !

In other words...the trade deficit will keep on growing.
OIL / GOLD / INTEREST RATES, all indicate that more dollars are needed to obtain a barril or ounce. Global economy projected a POO-average for 2002 at 18$ ! It will be much higher ! Infla-pressure.
Whatever the reasons are/may be, for maintaining such a virtual strength on the will NOT last !

O' Neil is holding hands with the frightened dollar-child, that has something serious to hide for already a very long time. What else can we conclude out of such a statement suddenly out of the blue...or not so suddenly ?

Saudi Arabia reaches the helping hand on the oil taps (turning them clockwise-open). BTW, where's OBL ?

CoBra(too)@YGM#731644/11/02; 10:33:41

Hello YGM,

You sure put up some interesting reading since you're back.
Looking back at the years since USAGOLD, GATA and the Cafe started the world has changed dramatically. And so has the investment climate.

Finally PM's are getting to be the topic of the day - and as I feel "you ain't seen nothin' yet". It's like that little snowflake tumbling down the mountain, joining with other flakes until a veritable avalanche builds up the devastating momentum no-one can stop.

As a matter of interest, what would be your minimum POG to induce you to go back to your sluice boxes up North?

Happy Trails, Ken - cb2

The CoinGuyBelgian...#731654/11/02; 10:33:46

Other than the suppression of the gold bullion price, and as of late, they seem to be losing their grip, I'm still trying to figure out what their "Strong-Dollar Policy" is...other than verbal-hype.

The CoinGuy

Old YellerStrong dollar policy#731664/11/02; 11:04:33

Quite simply,the biggest and most over-reaching sting operation ever foisted upon mankind.A operation so stunning in scope and complexity,any other historical monetary "operation" pales in comparison.All the while, cleverly concealed from the rank and file of planet Earth's denizens.

This Henry C.K.Lui better watch out,many more articles like this one and he might give OBL a run for top spot on GWB's evil-doers' list.

Sierra MadreMight as well say it...#7316704/11/02; 11:22:25

WOLFOWITZ is an Irish Catholic, he was an Eagle Scout and altarboy at the Church of the Sacred Heart at his home town.
100% American as Apple Pie and if he says, "Nuke Iraq", you can be absolutely sure it is the RIGHT THING TO DO.

Take that, you mealy-mouthed appeasers of Terrorists!


BelgianThanks USAGOLD !#7316804/11/02; 11:34:53

Stark / Welteke / Bundesbank : Dumping (!) dollar-reserves and selling (?) a minuscule amount of hugely appreciated Gold-reserves !!! Voila the TG scenario on Gold compensating for crashing dollars. Or even better : Exchanging dollars for euro and supporting Euroland stockmarkets as to not plunge as dramatically as the US stockmarket ? Did O'Neill react on this (dollar-dumping)with his dollar-statement ?
Sierra MadreSki, you said:#7316904/11/02; 12:25:09

"Here they come. I can't possibly see how this fund manager can avoid buying PM stocks due to their spectacular
performance over the last year or so."

Reply: "None so blind as those who will not see." Prejudice and a lifetime of ignorance and parroting stupidities about gold can work wonders. What is plain as day to us, is doubtful to the standard mind; it recoils from gold, NO MATTER WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY. Eventually, a new point of view will prevail - ours. But, it may take a long time or a terrific, wrenching economic change to bring that about.

MINER49ER: Thanks for your consideration of the Scottish banking system. The creation of the Yufus denotes a deep-seated need and is respectable as a community attempt to do something about their plight.

Remeber, the Colonists of American colonies were also desperately short of money, due to the British impositions, and they too resorted to scrip. Finally, as B. Franklin noted, the Revolution against the English was motivated more by the financial control by the Bank of England, than by anything else.

However, I don't think the "Yufu" will go far, nor last too long. Though motivated by sincere desires to do something, it is essentially weak, and will either be abused or dissolve eventually.


The whole world-paper-show is weaker by the day - not stronger! Its rout is in the cards. The Germans, with Stark and Welteke, are intellectually bankrupt and are talking total nonsense. What further debasement of the mind, than to complain about "not being allowed to sell even a tiny bit of gold"?

World-paper-money is actually finished. The big boys know this. The biggest of the big boys are accumulating - that's what Central Bank sales are all about!


YGMCoBra(too)#7317004/11/02; 12:27:28

Hi Back @ you...

Yes the snowball from H seems to be coming down the mtn.
Been a looong battle huh? Well we've persevered, fought, shared and especially learned from one another. (I think I've gained wisdom and patience here)'s been great & continues to get better. If Gold went to the moon I wouldn't return to Yukon to mine as the environmental policy is worse each year. (I may go back for wages + % of profits tho) Just had a ph call today from a friend up there this AM. He's flabbergasted that the Mining inspectors are going to set up camp in his area this yr to monitor on a daily basis his and surrounding operations. One may ask what next? Well I'd bet the Gov't will eventualy
want a gestapo employee present for each and every clean-up so as to collect tax. (Raw Gold still not taxable at present until it's sold) I would like at a future time (when kids older) to return to Bolivia and dredge. Lots of virgin rivers & creeks with awsome potential. Had a taste of it in 95 and would love to go back....Wonderful people out in the Andes and foothills....Take care old friend....
Randy will give you my email if you care to correspond again....Ken

TownCrierEurosystem revisited#7317104/11/02; 13:02:49

Thanks again go out to MK (known here as USAGOLD) and Belgian for highlighting this important matter, thus using the developments in Euroland to better scrutinize our our own (U.S.) situation. Cast in this light (great commentary, MK -- #73154), we sure look frail, propping up our debt-paper (currency) with asset-paper (stocks) that is in turn "propped up" through the abundance of the original debt-paper. Where the immediate difference between the U.S. and Euroland rests is that the situation with U.S. dollars has grown more nearly beyond the hope of rescue through prudent management.

"We shall have the hyper-inflation", I heard him say.

In the article MK posted, I want to highlight this excerpt:

------The Bundesbank also revealaed in its full year results for 2001 it had sold some 7.4 bln usd worth of US dollar from its currency reserves during the course of the year.
The bank's vice president Juergen Stark explained that ever since 2000 it has been following a policy of continually reducing its dollar positions over the market.--------

Now, with that in mind, it might be easier to "catch the drift" of euro Management as I alluded to in last week's overview of the latest quarterly asset revaluation. Here is is again. Have a look, and maybe the lightbulbs will start coming on that physical gold is the place to be.

TownCrier (04/04/02; 14:44:34MT - msg#: 72722)
Catching the ECB/euro drift, yet? Good for gold.
I've been provided with the latest weekly consolidated financial statement of the Eurosystem, worth special note because it reflects the latest asset revaluations based on their quarterly mark-to-market practices.

Cutting to the chase, the gold assets of the Eurosystem rose by 12.994 billion euros on the revaluation from last quarter's price per ounce, now standing at 139.808 billion euros in value.

And lest you think for a minute that the phenomenon was a result of the euro losing value, think again. Here's the quarterly performance of Eurosystem assets on a per unit basis as priced in euros.

DOLLAR unit value
@ end 2001 = 1.135 euro
@ end March ‘02 = 1.146 euro

YEN unit value
@ end 2001 = .00867 euro
@ end March ‘02 = .00866 euro

SDR (Special Drawing Rights) unit value
@ end 2001 = 1.4245 euro
@ end March ‘02 = 1.4297 euro

GOLD unit value (per troy ounce)
@ end 2001 = 314.99 euro
@ end March ‘02 = 347.32

Here, then, is the summary of the percentage performance of each asset over the quarter on a per unit basis -- [all nearly even except gold which is strongly up]:

dollar up 1.0%
yen down 0.1%
sdr up 0.4%
gold UP 10.3%

Through this, even the dimmest among central bankers can see the future glowing firmly; and we can, too.

With this compelling trend, there is no wonder that the European Central Bank and its national member CBs allowed, for example, the EUR 1.6 billion drawdown last week of their net position in foreign currency. This asset account of foreign paper now stands at a still massive EUR 258.6 billion to start the next quarter.

Meanwhile, the gold asset account continues its generally steady climb since euro-launch January 1999 where it stood on the books at 99.598 billion euro. Allowing for the bolstering of the gold asset account by 1.5 billion euro with the Greek membership in January 2001 (and not forgetting the measure of early Dutch, Austrian, and late German sales in accordance with the Central Bank Agreement on Gold), the gold assets of the Eurosystem have performed nicely over the years, now valued at EUR 139.808 billion.

Look for more of this -- letting the winners keep running while the weaklings get cut from the team. I hope this summary has been helpful for showing gold in its new light.

Again, here's a reminder of the first element from ECB president Duisenberg's September 26th 1999 joint Statement on Gold from Washington, D.C.:

"Gold will remain an important element of global monetary reserves."


Black BladeRE: Siochain msg#: 73153#7317204/11/02; 13:10:15

I know that several people have bought small generators for emergency purposes (many bought during Y2K preparations). I also knew an individual in the SF Bay Area a few years ago who had a couple of windmills on his property. They were somewhat inconsistent for power but did cut his power bill a bit even though the neighbors complained as it "offended the eyes" and at times were noisy. I understand that researchers at Bezerkley are working on a "spray on" plastic based solar cell technology – perhaps some day it may be viable for individuals.

As far as the country's power needs are concerned, I think that the trend is toward natural gas fired power generation because of the cleaner burning fuel. Virtually every new or planned power plant is NG-fired. Also, many storage facilities have been acquired and many more are in the works. This would lead me to think that the long-term strategy is toward NG as the fuel of choice. I would think that nuclear power is still a viable option as well. However, all combustible forms of power generation are used to heat water for steam and this creates water vapor – the largest contributor to so-called greenhouse gasses – but hey, it's invisible so outta sight, outta mind.

Oil and Coal power has a lot of environmentalist-political based opposition that presents a few problems for the industry (mostly due to sulfur and carbon emissions). Maybe clean-coal technology will advance to where it is politically correct (we have about 350 years of known US coal reserves). Solar and wind are actually quite costly. PETA opposes windmills as they are known to kill birds (actually they refer to them as "Quisenarts for Birds"). Some places are better suited for wind power (like the Altamont Pass Wind Farm in the east SF Bay Area) however, there is a lot of opposition from landowners as these windmill farms are a safety hazard due to many fires in the grasslands from sparks as many of these older mills occasionally breakdown, attract lightening, etc. Hard-core environmentalist opposes both Solar and Wind farms as aesthetically unpleasing because they "offend the eyes". It really comes down to "you can't please everyone".

Anyway, that's my take on the energy situation. Cheers!

- Black Blade

TownCrierNational pride glows with golden hue#7317304/11/02; 13:13:44

HEADLINE: Central bank gets final lot of gold bars

(Bangkok Post) -- Luangta Maha Bua made another gift of 40 gold bars, raised through public donations, to the Bank of Thailand yesterday.

Governor M.R Pridiyathorn Devakula said it was the final contribution the central bank would accept from the revered monk, who has campaigned since 1997 to shore up foreign reserves.

...M.R. Pridiyathorn said the country's finances were now well on the road to recovery with foreign reserves of US$36.6 billion.

Citizens can see this as well as central bankers can -- when there is one item in your First Aid Kit that was able to save you last time, you'll think more highly of it and ensure that you have plenty on hand for the next potential emergency. A lesson learned that gold is good.


USAGOLD / Centennial Precious Metals, Inc.Put a Firm Foundation Under Your Portfolio#7317404/11/02; 13:17:16

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TownCrierAttention English citizens: Diversify into gold, writing is on the wall#7317504/11/02; 13:34:15

Bloomberg HEADLINE: U.K. Euro Debate Would Improve If Pound Fell, BOE's George Says

In a nutshell, this excerpt from the article is what you will want to get your mind around:

-------``The undoubted attraction of nominal exchange rate certainty vis a vis our European trading partners, which is a major potential advantage of adopting the euro, must depend to some degree on the likely exchange rate at which we might join.''

U.K.-based companies like Nissan Motor Manufacturing (U.K.) Ltd. say they've had to cut prices so their products can compete with cheaper ones made in continental Europe. Entering the single currency with the pound at its current value against the euro would lock in the advantage continental companies have.

At the same time, a pound that's fluctuating in value makes it hard for businesses to plan.--------
If the prevailing market-motivated trend continues, expect the pound to drop by hook or by crook against the euro, to be followed by its fixed placement in the EMU. Preserve your purchasing power today with a prudent diversification into gold because it shall surely continue an upward move in euro-price if we are readi