USAGOLD Gold Discussion Forum Archive

Electronic reproduction sourced from
WaveriderSolomon Weaver#6618112/1/01; 00:08:21

Thanks - great bedtime reading! Sweet dreams all.

THX-1138Price guessing contest#6618212/1/01; 00:31:32

HoratioIsrael#6618312/1/01; 01:07:06

Danger...for U.S. in Israel

Israel is trying to get the open the next terrorist front in Israel occupied territory.
They are trying to get the U.S. troops to do thier fighting for them.We are getting sucked in if we do this.
Sharon needs to go home and shut his big fat mouth.
It woulden't surprise me if a U.S. representative would get killed there as a justification to suck us in.

DucatPrice Guessing Contest#6618412/01/01; 07:48:39

Canuck@ Gandalf#6618512/01/01; 09:00:56

tedwHoratio#6618612/1/01; 09:20:40

What does your post have to do with Gold?

No reasonable person can doubt that the suicide bombers attacking Isreal are terrorists?

Amd a reasonable person could wonder whether or not you are
an Anti-semite, judging from your comments. Or even a Jew hater.

sourdoughCONTEST#6618712/1/01; 09:28:15


Cause for price rise.
A royal prince will will be born in Japan.
The government will announce the minting of a commemerative gold coin to celebrate the first male born since 1965 in the worlds oldest monarchy.
The coin will be available to all Japanese citizens at the equivalent of $300 u.s. an ounce.
Best wishes for the princess.
(one can hope, but likely another failed opportunity to move 70 million ounces)

da2gNews and Views#6618812/1/01; 09:29:11


I received the latest quarterly News and Views yesterday, and put a dent in it last evening. Professional presentation and quality content. My hat is off to you.


sourdough(No Subject)#6618912/1/01; 09:31:57

Whoops, just heard it`s a princess. congrats to the family
mikal@Horatio#6619012/1/01; 09:45:01

I agree with your post. I feel their is too much European opposition to further Middle East intervention, for US bombingto spread outside Afganistan. Unless, as you point out, their is a Mossad hit (or CIA, KGB, MJ12, etc.)
The CoinGuy#66183...This is Why I Left this Board the First Time...#6619112/1/01; 10:07:02

Beyond that statement, I just can't be civil. So I will stop here.

Have a good weekend all,


ArgentWaverider (msg#: 66172) Musings....#6619212/1/01; 10:16:21

You are more than welcome and I am glad you enjoyed it. I hope to find more interesting and enlightening information to bring back to the forum in the future as close to and on topic as possible. This neophyte, as well, is searching for truth on a very rocky path, which is not always about PMs or the economy. At the end of this yellow brick road, I know we will all find what we have been looking for, however slippery the slope may have been.

Good luck to all and be well.

$$$$ 271.50 $$$$

mikalPOG- "Price" of Gold#6619312/1/01; 10:21:46

The PTB are capping POG, preventing war, terrorist, and economic jitters from triggering a safe haven buying deluge, that would grow into a tidal surge, breaching their puny fortifications on their manure island. They have instructed the PPT to prop the DOW and other indices. They have encouraged Americans to borrow against their belongings, max out credit lines, and hold stocks for "next years recovery". They are parading mistletoe attired celebrities, entertainers, politicians, and pastors as merry and patriotic spokespeople for the "American Way" and "Christmas Spirit". They may wish to insure that the most profitable retail month is not a bust.
WaveriderArgentina to Dollarize Peso Deposits#6619412/1/01; 10:41:22


BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (Reuters) - Argentina will convert peso bank deposits into dollars and temporarily limit cash withdrawals, a top official told local radio on Saturday amid fears of a run on banks by nervous savers.

"There is a restriction on the use of cash," Cabinet Chief Chrystian Colombo said. "You can't take out more than $1,000 in cash."

"The government has made these decisions so that the people can truly feel secure that their money is in the bank and that, in accordance with the law, that money is untouchable and that money, in accordance with the law of convertibility, is being transferred immediately into dollars in order to ensure all citizens that have fixed term deposits that their savings are secure," Colombo said.

Waverider: Faith in the government...swallow their line of BS...believe that black is white and white is black, and... you too can feel "secure".

Gandalf the WhiteUPDATE ------GC1Z Price Guessing Contest #6619512/1/01; 10:41:27

Progress Report as of 12/1/01 10:30MT
MK says: HEAR YE! HEAR YE!! --we will have a price guessing contest. Where gold will close on Friday, December 7th on the Comex. Each entry must be surrounded by $$$$$$ dollar signs as follows $$$$$30,000$$$$$. The winner will receive a one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic. Let's make the guesses in 50¢ increments. All entries must be posted by 5pm MST Tuesday, December 4th.
$$$$$350.00$$$$$sourdough (12/1/01; 09:28:15MT
*****300.00*****Max Rabbitz (11/30/01; 20:07:20MT
$$$$$$296.50$$$$$$tedw (11/30/01; 19:50:42MT
$$$$$296.00$$$$$THX-1138 (12/1/01; 00:31:32
$$$$$ $292.50 $$$$$darkhorse (11/30/01; 18:48:35MT
$$$$$289.50$$$$$goldquest (11/30/01; 23:12:21MT
$$$$$287.75$$$$$Hydro (11/30/01; 20:53:23MT
$$$$$282.50$$$$$ uponroof (11/30/01; 20:57:34MT
$$$$$ 281.00 $$$$$VanRip (11/30/01; 21:05:14MT
$$$$$$$280.50$$$$$$Solomon Weaver (11/30/01; 23:03:28MT
$$$$$$279.50$$$$$$The CoinGuy (11/29/01; 21:48:53MT
$$$$$$ 278.50 $$$$$$Broken Tee (11/30/01; 10:52:21MT
$$$$$277.5$$$$$Gandalf the White (11/29/01; 20:17:49MT
$$$$$277.00$$$$$Waverider (11/30/01; 01:23:24MT
$$$$$$276.60$$$$$$wiley (11/29/01; 22:47:01MT
$$$$$$$276.50$$$$$$$goldenpeace (11/30/01; 04:45:06MT
$$$$$276.00$$$$$ cwa (11/29/01; 21:29:00MT
$$$$$275.50$$$$$Ducat (12/01/01; 07:48:39MT
$$$$$$ 275.00 $$$$$$ Gimli_ (11/29/01; 22:00:38MT
$$$$$274.50$$$$$Black Blade (11/29/01; 21:54:25MT
$$$$$$274.00$$$$$mikal (11/30/01; 22:54:23MT
$$$$$$ 273.50 $$$$$$$ Christian (11/30/01; 06:41:42MT
$$$$$$$$$$273.00$$$$$$$$$$$$$$Canuck (12/01/01; 09:00:56MT $$$$$272.50$$$$$Mythical (11/30/01; 18:08:12MT
$$$$$ 272.00 $$$$$Henri (11/30/01; 11:44:46MT
$$$$ 271.50 $$$$ Argent (12/1/01; 10:16:21MT
TickTock, Go HIGH or Go LOW, but go !

Artie Farklecontest#6619612/1/01; 11:04:03


GOING TO BE A GOOD ONE. . . . . . . You know what, Dark horse, I've been thinking what you've been thinking.

We're due for a contest and it would be productive to tap the collective wisdom around this noble Table. I agree.

But how to break the psychic dam and get the ideas to flow?

Nothing like a challenge to match the quality of the poster and lurkers present. This idea came to me while having
lunch today and browsing over the latest GRANT’S Interest Rate Observer. It seems that one of James Grant's
friends -- a fellow named Paul L. Kasreil who does economic research for Northern Trust Co. -- posed a most
far-reaching question. One that is making the rounds among people who talk markets as well as those who enjoy the
same as a worthy pre-occupation.

The question is this:

------------------------------------ Alan Greenspan: Maestro or Music Man? ----------------------------

The book, "Maestro", was the subject of a great deal of conversation here when it came out several months ago and
opinion was pretty much divided on it -- some thought it characterized a master at the peak of his powers. Others
saw it as a whitewash of a Fed chairman who simply injected liquidity willy-nilly at a time when the world had no
where to turn but the dollar. Some called him genius. Others called him lucky. Still others called him confused --
pumping money into the system at one turn and deriding "irrational exuberance" the next.

But Maestro or Music Man?? Now that's intriguing, and very much worth a contest.

For those of you scratching your head at the choice, I will remind you that The Music Man, one of America's
favorite all-time musicals, is the story of band director/con artist. The following from famed critic, Clifford Ridley
captures the Music Man for our purposes:

"Bierko is a younger Hill than Preston, yet with his slicked-back hair, his self- dramatizing gestures and his roving
eyes constantly scouting for trouble, he's every inch the two-bit con man. As advertised, he delivers Hill's fervid
patter with dash and musicality; and at the end, when he's unmasked by the unconditional love of a good woman,
he's quite touching. And he has a splendid foil in Luker, who sings Marian's arching melodies in a limpid soprano
and persuasively metamorphoses from chilly skeptic to loving co-conspirator. She also has a fine way of saying
"Ssssh" - an admonition, fortunately, that this ebullient production mostly ignores."

And then here's a passage from the preface to Bob Woodward's "Maestro" which more than adequately captures the
essence of the Maestro side of the coin:

"Greenspan is slated to remain chairman of the Federal Reserve until 2004. Not only is he a major figure in the
world's economic past, he is central to its future. He has been frank enough to stand before the new and amazing
economic circumstances that he helped create and in the end declare them a mystery. It is impossible to account fully
for the continuing high growth, record employment, low inflation and high stock market."

And, toward the end of this important book:

"Greenspan also represents something more than the confidence wing of the American Personality. He stands at the
point where the country's eternal optimism meets the country's abiding suspicion that something will go wrong. . .
That fear also creates a kind of excitement and anticipation.Greenspan stands at the crossroads of optimisim and
pessimism. Each of us is a character in the nation's great economic soap opera; Greenspan is both director and

So, the question before the table is this:

***** "Alan Greenspan, Maestro or Music Man?" *****

Lovable Con-Man or Brilliant Fed Chairman?

I will leave with another thought of Mr. Kasreil -- as I think the computer cannot be taken out of the present
equation without missing a major part of the analysis:

"Economics how do we measure that? Well, I can tell you there has been a very increase in productivity, at least at
my shop. When I joined the Northern Trust over 15 years ago, it took three senior economists and three research
assistants about two weeks to come out with an inaccurate economic forecast, and with this laptop, I can do it all by
myself in one day."

The world, I know, is not spinning any faster than it used to be but who among us would deny that it is. . . . . . . .
.So Maestro or Music? You be the judge.

Each entry must address the question in sufficient length but no more than is absolutely necessary to make the point
-- the eternal bane of the writer. An appropriate link is acceptable. The contest will be judged not on the choice you
make but on the erudition and argumentative skills used to make your case. Please surround your entry with stars as
shown. The winner will get a lucky French Angel gold coin -- the one they say Napoleon carried throughout his
campaigns until he lost it . . . . .the day before Waterloo. As Darkhorse suggests the entry-post must also include
some reference as to what the future might bring by the end of the year (for posterity's sake). As always, the post
must conclude with how all of this relates to gold and gold ownership -- and it is there that the worm turns, where
the contest will decided. The runners up -- two of them -- will receive a Mexican Azteca silver coin.

First time posters will receive a one-ounce U.S. Silver Eagle but in order to claim the price you must indicate that
you are a first-time poster with Jill Snyder ( This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ). The post must be an entry into the main contest --
"Alan Greenspan, Maestro or Music Man." First time posts in the price guessing contest (see below) do not count
toward the Silver Eage Prize. Pls include your current mailing address.

The posting contest will go from this moment through Sunday, December 9, 2001 when midnight graces the purple
mountain majesties.

* * * * * * * * * * *

In addition to the posting contest, we will have a price guessing contest. Where gold will close on Friday,
December 7th on the Comex -- the December contract. Each entry must be surrounded by $$$$$$ dollar signs as
follows $$$$$30,000$$$$$. All entries must be posted by 5pm MST Tuesday, December 4th.
The winner -- he or she who comes closest to that closing price -- will receive a one
tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic.

* * * * * * * * * * * * *

Good luck all. May the best poster win.

slingshotcontest#6619812/1/01; 13:02:04

ShermagPrice Contest#6619912/1/01; 13:30:47

RobotGuyJust whining,.. feel I must.#6620012/1/01; 13:31:55

Hello There!I am a crazy canuck, that's right, one of your northern neighbors. I have been studying posts in this forum for quite some time now (lurking about), and I must say that I am very pleased with the various viewpoints presented in this forum. I must also commend various posters on their literary skills, some posts are quite poetic and thought provoking. I am also very pleased that I have been granted the opportunity to perhaps share a few ideas of my own, although I do not posses the economic background to the same degree as most of you do.
I really want to buy some gold Maple Leafs (1 oz) somewhere between $10,000 and $30,000 worth as my method of stability in investment form. What I find really frustrating is/are:

1) The value of the canadian dollar
2) The accessibility of the precious metal
3) The terrible markup of the coin over POG

It seems everyone feels you should have to pay so much for your gold, that if the value of it increases, you're certain not to make any gains. Sorry I must subject you to my perils, but I thought some of you might appreciate the frustration I'm experiencing here.

OH YES, I ALMOST FORGOT $$$$$$277.75$$$$$$ (Optimistic)

RobotGuyOOPS I'm Sorry, increments of $.50 (Wasn't Paying Attention)#6620112/1/01; 13:45:34

darkhorsegold 7 dec closing contest#6620212/1/01; 13:54:39

"Let's make the guesses in 50¢ increments."

I thought that meant on the dollar and half dollar...I see at least three that aren't....

Gandalf the WhiteDarkhorse's comment#6620312/1/01; 13:58:54

The "increments of 50 cents" guidance from MK may have been AFTER some of those "guesses", OR it may have been an "error" in judgment.

Gandalf the WhiteREPOST !! ( so one may see the timing of thoughts)#6620412/1/01; 14:09:51

Gandalf the White (11/30/01; 22:02:50MT - msg#: 66171)
UPDATE ------GC1Z Price Guessing Contest
Progress Report as of 11/30/01 21:30MT
USAGOLD (11/29/01; 19:37:04MT - msg#: 66079)
In addition to the posting contest, we will have a price guessing contest. Where gold will close on Friday, December 7th on the Comex -- the December contract. Each entry must be surrounded by $$$$$$ dollar signs as follows $$$$$30,000$$$$$. The winner -- he or she who comes closest to that closing price -- will receive a one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic.
USAGOLD (11/29/01; 19:41:44MT - msg#: 66080)
I neglected to put a close date on the price guessing contest. All entries must be posted by 5pm MST Tuesday, December 4th.
USAGOLD (11/29/01; 21:07:22MT - msg#: 66096)
All. . .Contest!!
I have the good news that my far-seeing and wizardrous friend, Gandalf the White (who I predict will be starring in a movie real soon) will be monitoring the price guessing contest. Let's make the guesses in 50¢ increments.

Black BladeBush Recession?#6620512/1/01; 15:15:57

I see that the Democrats have started spewing vomitous lies again. I during the presidential election I had predicted that George Bush or Al Gore would be remembered as the Herbert Hoover of our generation. It would not have mattered who was elected to the presidency. The recession was already locked in as early as March 2000 when the Internet and High Tech bubbles burst (in spite of some NBER bubble-headed academics). That was during the last year of the Bubba Clinton presidency. However, just as Herbert Hoover inherited an economic disaster, so too has George Bush.

Now the Democrats are calling this recession "The Bush Recession." It was inevitable as politicians are far from being the best and brightest that America has to offer. There are now Democrat Radio advertisements blaming George Bush for the deepening recession. Obviously there are hopes that the political seeds will be planted for the 2002 elections. It would not have mattered who was elected to the presidency whether it was George Bush, Al Gore, Harry Browne, Pat Buchanan, or Ross Perot. The result will be the same. There is no cure for the recession, it has to run its course.

This recession is going to be a gruesome affair as consumer and corporate debt are at record levels, corporate earnings are falling faster than lead balloons, and the "Bone Pile" grows at a furious pace. The Trolls, Pimps, and Pied Pipers of Wall Street are now screaming at the top of their lungs for Americans to buy, buy, buy…. It is somehow supposed to be patriotic to go into debt and be beholding to the banksters. Heck, just last month Goldman Sachs Pimp Abby Jo Cohen said that Enron shares were undervalued. Hmmm… All I can say is be careful, it's a jungle out there. In a word - "GRIM"

- Black Blade

Slayed some ducks this morning and now I'm off to slay more ducks!

Scarabcontest#6620612/1/01; 15:30:22

USAGOLDContest. . . .ALL#6620712/1/01; 16:57:27

Just to make sure we're all on the same page, when I said "50¢ increments" I meant full dollar or half-dollar guesses.

As such,

$675.50 OK

$675.00 OK

$675.10 Not OK

$675.25 Not OK

$675.60 Not OK


If someone has guessed not rounding to dollar or half-dollar, you can make another guess, but to my knowledge only one was made outside the rule and it was corrected (which is OK).

Flatlander$$$$$$$$$$$270.00$$$$$$$$$$#6620812/1/01; 18:32:56

Old YellerBlack Blade;pointing the finger at the usual suspects#6620912/1/01; 19:12:51

IMO,proper credit(pun intended)for the recession must be given to it's true authors;Greenspan and the merry pranksters at the Federal Reserve.The reason the Fed was created was to take the money creation machine out of the hands of the easily swayed politicians.The bankers assured us that this was necessary for proper'stable monetary policy:wrong,total abject failure.

Now,when the finger of blame is being directed in various directions by differing groups with their own agendas(like the Fed),it becomes critically important to not let them get away with it again.No politician should wear the goat horns for this debacle,they are mere fringe players in the unfolding drama.That being said,Bush's remedies,including his dubious war aims,may just make him partially culpable in extending and amplifying the damage.

Chicken man$$$$390$$$$$#6621012/1/01; 19:16:27

BR549Price Guessing Contest #6621112/1/01; 19:16:51

Max RabbitzGandalf the White#6621212/1/01; 19:56:07


My guess last night should read $$$$$300.00$$$$$$

Got distracted by Maria and a few brews. Best keep those hobbits away from the brews.....Maria too.

Buena Fe$$$$$$281.50$$$$$$#6621312/1/01; 20:51:51

Dec 10th POG for physical = $587 (and accelerating)
Heee heee
paper is toast
(Buenos Aires street corner)

WaveriderThe Meaning of Derivatives: Futures and Options#6621412/1/01; 21:41:01

This article is a good *educational read* for a *basic* understanding of derivatives and the causal relationship between the gold derivative market and the POG.
"The danger, and allure, of derivatives is that one can control an inordinate amount of the underlying asset with very little capital. This is a double edged sword. Small changes in the price of the underlying asset can create eye-popping profits or cause instant bankruptcy."

Black Blade: Very admirable, kudos - sounds like you've got all your ducks in order :)


Black BladeWaverider#6621512/01/01; 22:05:14

Yep, the ducks are all plucked, cleaned, wrapped and lined up in the freezer. You could say that I got all my ducks in a row ;-)
HopeingIICONTEST#6621612/1/01; 22:37:42

Black BladeEnron shows the dot-coms a thing or two#6621712/1/01; 23:16:52,D/20011130/wmath30?cf=GlobeInvestor/config&vg=BigAdVariableGenerator&slug=wmath30&date=20011130&archive=rtgam


Enron was a true Old Economy titan, a stalwart member of the Dow Jones industrial average, a multibillion-dollar colossus with real, hard assets and $170-billion (U.S.) in sales. And yet, this former blue chip is on its way to joining and the rest of the Internet all-stars on the trash heap of history. Years worth of financial statements called into question, its debt downgraded to junk-bond status, its stock slashed to pennies from over $80 earlier this year, Enron is expected to file for bankruptcy protection soon in one of the largest such cases in U.S. history - almost twice as large as Texaco, which went under in 1987. Enron is an example to others that corporate hubris and investor mania were by no means restricted to Internet startups.

If there is any overlap between Enron and the dozens of dot-com flameouts that have plunged earthward over the past year, it would be the fact that the Houston company was in some senses just as virtual an entity as - or, perhaps a better example: the hedge fund known as Long-Term Capital Management, which collapsed in a multibillion-dollar pile of debt and derivatives in 1998. Like LTCM, Enron's assets were primarily based on derivative contracts involving natural gas, electricity, and other commodities the energy giant had gotten into swapping, such as various metals, pulp and paper, water, and even spare Internet capacity.

Not unlike the Internet startups that so many investors ridiculed for their New Economy, "end of the business cycle" hubris, Enron also thought it was a different breed of company - one to which the normal rules of finance no longer applied. What started as a way of hedging natural gas deliveries became a virtual derivative-trading giant, with thousands of contracts and counter-contracts swapping everything from lumber and plastic to weather-related insurance risk and fibre-optic bandwidth. Adding off balance-sheet financing to the mix made the whole structure even more unstable, until the slightest disruption was enough to make it topple.

Black Blade: The derivatives game is a "virtual" minefield. We should expect to see more of this over the next few months as corporate earnings go from "cash to trash." The rumor is that they were involved in base and precious metals as well. Probably not enough to stir the PM markets. I understand that CB Gold loans may be cut back further in coming months. Perhaps that is why hedge funds like AngloGold and Barrick are in a panic and looking to snap up other miners. The world of exotic investments could be in for a rude "wake up call."

Black BladeThe bitter taste of roast Enron#6621812/1/01; 23:36:13


COME, LET US peck the putrefying carcass of Enron Corp. Let us pluck the tastiest morsels that still cling to the Houston-based "energy giant," the company yesterday removed from the Dow Jones "Titans Index," the one expected to file for bankruptcy any minute, marking the biggest, fastest corporate collapse in North American history. (Old stock price: $89 U.S.; new stock price: 26 cents.)

Ah, here's something meaty. Arthur Andersen LLP, principal auditor to the company. Fees to scrutinize the pipeline company turned online energy trader in the year 2000: $25 million. That would be the payment for ensuring that the company's financial statements were prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Those would be the same financial statements that have been thrown out the window, redone and refiled, now weighted with hundreds of millions of dollars in vanishing earnings.

Yum. More flesh. Oh look! It's Arthur Andersen again. In addition to the $25 million, the Big Five accounting firm was paid $27 million in "Other Fees." Said "other fees" relate to "business process and risk management consulting [and]... due diligence procedures related to acquisitions or other activities." Etc.

Black Blade: Now Arthur Andersen LLP is under investigation for "cooking the books." The SEC wants to know what the hell Arthur Andersen LLP was doing when they should have been auditing the books. It appears that there was a conflict of interest or possibly some bribery involved for Arthur Andersen LLP to look the other way.

Black BladeReinflating The Bubble#6621912/2/01; 00:03:06


For investors and consumers it was obvious from the mounting layoffs and shrinking asset portfolios that the economy was in trouble, obvious to everyone except Wall Street and the Networks. The economy continued its descent which began in the summer of 2000. The job layoffs, the drop in capital spending, and a contracting manufacturing sector told the whole story. Wall Street was convinced that the downturn was just a minor squall that would soon pass. The consecutive Fed rate cuts would surely guarantee a return to normal weather. The mantra became the "V" shaped recovery, a short blip on the radar screen, expected by the third quarter with profits and the economy back on track. Unfortunately, it became clear by the second quarter that wasn't going to happen. Company earnings were contracting along with the economy. Layoffs continued and companies issued warnings for the second half of the year.

So far the greatest asset bubble of the last century has been partially deflated without generating a systemic crisis. Investors have suffered massive losses in their wealth. The job market is soft and more jobs are being lost each week. The technology industry is still suffering from a capacity glut and the manufacturing sector is still contracting, but the ship is still afloat. The clock is ticking and we still have those wild cards of derivatives, oil, and war. We should know within the next two quarters if Mr. Greenspan's grand money experiment will have worked. If he is able to reinflate the economy, resurrect the stock market bubble, keep gold and silver prices from rising, keep a lid on energy prices, deflect the collateral damage from war, bring world peace, and tame the derivative monster from turning into a financial contagion, he would have rightfully earned a place on the cover of Time magazine. He would indeed have become Greenspan Superman.

Black Blade: Jim Puplava has another good article worth reading. The Economy is in a shambles and sinking fast. Get out of debt while you can, get dry goods and basic necessities stored away as you would for a natural disaster or extended unemployment, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and get enough cash on hand for several months expenses. Who would have predicted the events of the last few months (Terrorist diving passenger jets into skyscrapers, the super giant Enron corporation going tits up, etc.). Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. We live in "Interesting Times."

Black BladeNo country risk from Normandy -AngloGold#6622012/2/01; 00:55:18

No country risk from Normandy -AngloGold


MELBOURNE, Dec 2 (Reuters) - South Africa's AngloGold Ltd on Sunday rejected suggestions that country risk could count against it in the battle with U.S.-based Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM) for Australia's Normandy Mining Ltd (Australia:NDY.AX ). Newmont has highlighted that it is has no South African political risk exposure, offers a U.S. domicile and a balanced country risk portfolio.

AngloGold Chief Executive Officer Bobby Godsell told the Seven Network Sunday Sunrise programme his company also had a balanced portfolio and country risk was not an issue. ``I think that's a bit rich, really. I think that's the Americans coming over the top,'' he said. Godsell said Newmont this year had made its profits out of Peru, Bolivia, Indonesia and Uzbekistan.

He added AngloGold's U.S. operations had been affected by the California power crisis which caused soaring electricity rates. "Now frankly, you wouldn't expect in a First World country, would you, for a power grid to collapse. All countries have risk profiles. I think for risk the best you can do is balance your portfolio,'' he said.

Black Blade: Interesting comments about the US power crisis, true but still interesting. AngloGold "Must" win Normandy at all costs. They like Barrick have backed themselves into a corner. They "MUST" acquire cheap ounces to deliver into their hedge book.

NetkingCONTEST $$$$$$297.50$$$$$$ #6622112/2/01; 01:53:34

$$$$$$297.50$$$$$$ ($300 soon to be breached but maybe later in December)
Sie Buena Fe - from Buenos Aires?, my national team scraped a very last minute win at your Plata stadium in front of 80,000+ locals, phew!(smile). - Netking

OROSolomon Weaver - Noland at P Bear#6622212/2/01; 05:07:46

I do like the fact that he views credit expansion as culprit rather than just monetary expansion by the banks. However, there are a great number of issues he ignores:

1. The debt instruments he speaks of were funded by cash flows. At the typical rate of return on assets of 6-9% to 15-20% for SP companies, one would expect credit to grow in some proportion to that, as returns are rarely spent on consumption. Thus credit expansion is not necessarily artificial, and thus not by itself a sign of economic ailments.

2. Arbitrage Debt such as embeded within much of the financial chains of ownership (a fiduciary company sells a retail contract at a particular rate, and uses proceeds to buy other debt securities that are themselves composed of other debt securities) is not a "financial bubble" because the base assets underlying the whole chain are the same. The methodology of counting each layer in the chain as further debt and then adding up the total is misleading. While these structures were not at all possible those many years ago, the current low cost of accounting, clearing, and trading makes this type of structure much more attractive as it allows customized diversification for both the retail investor and his fiduciaries, and is only a substitute for direct ownership of the base debt by the retail investor.

3. The effect of government taxation and spending on the net rate of return is substantial and must result in an increase in financial asset values as effective government taxation falls, even if the cash flows behind the financial assets are the same. In this process, as nominal interest rates fall to the borrower along with government taxing and spending, the net return to the lender can remain the same.

Thus if a business producing $1 bil of cash flow and tax rates are 60%, that cash flow can produce only $0.4 billion to the lender thus a fully leveraged business would be able to service a $10 billion loan at an interest rate of 10% ($1 bil/10%), but the lender would only see a 4% return. If tax rates dropped to 40%, then the same 4% net return to the lender would imply an interest rate of 6.7%, meaning that the same business can service the interest on a $15 billion loan ($1 bil/6.7%), which it would certainly do. That in itself would raise outstanding credit by 50%, not counting the added expansion in production and incomes in the overall economy as a result of government's falling share of consumption and income.

4. He does not look at the classic business investment boom associated with the expansion - which peaked at 17% of domestic spending without R&D, and at near 30% with it. These indicate a rise in investment one would expect from a contraction in government's burden on the economy.

5. His talk of credit expansion rather than monetary expansion brings to the fore the point that the Fed Funds rate, rather than being a means for the Fed to add or subtract liquidity of its own, is acting as a statutory interest rate.

The Fed is not adding substantial permanent liquidity itself, but has banks and the rest of the credit market players do it. In expectation of Fed actions to change rates, the market preempts the banks by lowering short rates before the banks have a chance to start lending at the lower Fed rate cost of funds (plus their margin).

Noland does not touch on any of this.

6. There is a "deflationary" type demand for credit just to pay off outstanding debts. The appropriate analysis of the credit expansion in the fiat monetary world is with the tools of the monetary supply and demand balance. With this balance at hand, one can see that the actual EXCESS credit expansion was not on a large scale, but rather restrained (if not non existent) during the bulk of the expansion, with the post LTCM credit expansion of 98-99 being the only clear cut period of a classic credit bubble.

7. There should also be an obvious effect of savings and spending decisions by people and businesses on interest rates - particularly short term ones. Thus the "flight to liquidity" characteristic of recessionary fears on the part of both businesses and consumers is a flight to short term funds, which SHOULD lower short rates. The near freeze in corporate investment spending and the drop in consumer spending following the 9-11 attacks caused exactly that kind of motion, thus causing a substantially greater portion of funds to flow to banks and money market funds rather than equities and private market bonds, and factors of direct investment. The result must be a substantial drop in short rates regardless of Fed action, in fact, it would be irresponsible in the extreme if the Fed did not react with a rapid decline in its own short rate.

7. Noland ignores the very substantial flows resulting from EXCESS credit expansion driven by monetary injections by central banks abroad during the decade of the 90s - carry trades of various sorts. He ignores the international credit flows effects that the BOJ created using near 0% rates over half a decade, and through its very agressive injection of funds.

Therefore, I tend to discount his opinions though I follow more closely his reasoning and his rich library of quotations from economists I do appreciate.

uponroofEnron.......... from the little guys perspective#6622312/02/01; 06:49:20

Phila. Inquirer, Sunday Business Front Page.

Saw a friend yesterday. Talked about Enron. He got 'killed', as did his parents. He's very angry at broker, hypesters, and market in general for this and past losses. Will be moving to self manage all family funds. Told him about gold. Very, very intersted in options and stocks. It's a start.

"...Shareholders, who have filed a blizzard of lawsuits, have reason to feel wronged: For years, the company relied on an accounting loophole to conceal the enormous risks it was taking. While the Enron case is extreme, this loophole is widely used by American corporations, and the Securities and Exchange Commission and Congress should close it.

The back story to the Enron drama began in the early 1990s, as the company moved beyond its gas-pipeline business to found the energy-trading industry, made possible by deregulation.

In recent years, the company served as a sort of combination stock exchange and brokerage house. It made a market for hundreds of products that enabled power utilities, big energy users, and speculators to buy and sell energy the way traditional commodities traders buy and sell corn, soybeans and sow bellies.

This business requires enormous capital, since Enron, when it played the role of middleman, had to guarantee that contracts between other parties would be fulfilled even if one party defaulted. It's similar to the way a bank guarantees you will get your savings back even if your deposit was lent to a homeowner who didn't make his mortgage payments. Except that a bank has federal deposit insurance; Enron did not.

In the late 1990s, Enron executives bragged that they had found a clever way to raise all this capital: They used subsidiaries, partnerships, and other "special-purpose entities" to keep the related transactions off Enron's financial statements. That way, Enron could avoid the pitfalls of ordinary capital-raising methods. Selling stock would have diluted the value of Enron's existing shares; selling bonds would have hurt the company's credit rating.

Moreover, by using special-purpose entities, or SPEs, the company could hide behind accounting rules that let it keep secret essential information about assets, debts, and future financial obligations..."

'Special Purpose Entities'!

Reckless legislation, overly agressive management. Works fine when the bull is deemed eternal. Not so good when the bear facts are required.

Gandalf the WhiteUPDATE ------GC1Z Price Guessing Contest #6622412/2/01; 10:20:42

Progress Report as of 12/2/01 10:10MT
MK says: HEAR YE! HEAR YE!! --we will have a price guessing contest. Where gold will close on Friday, December 7th on the Comex. Each entry must be surrounded by dollar signs as follows $$$$$30,000$$$$$. The winner will receive a one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic. Let's make the guesses in 50¢ increments. All entries must be posted by 5pm MST Tuesday, December 4th.
$$$$390$$$$$ Chicken man (12/1/01; 19:16:27MT
$$$$$350.00$$$$$sourdough (12/1/01; 09:28:15MT
$$$$$$320.00$$$$$$Scarab (12/1/01; 15:30:22MT
$$$$$300.00$$$$$Max Rabbitz (11/30/01; 20:07:20MT
$$$$$$297.50$$$$$$ Netking (12/2/01; 01:53:34MT
$$$$$$296.50$$$$$$tedw (11/30/01; 19:50:42MT
$$$$$296.00$$$$$THX-1138 (12/1/01; 00:31:32
$$$$$ $292.50 $$$$$darkhorse (11/30/01; 18:48:35MT
$$$$$289.50$$$$$goldquest (11/30/01; 23:12:21MT
$$$$$$288.50$$$$$slingshot (12/1/01; 13:02:04MT
$$$$$287.75$$$$$Hydro (11/30/01; 20:53:23MT
$$$$$282.50$$$$$ uponroof (11/30/01; 20:57:34MT
$$$$$$281.50$$$$$$Buena Fe (12/1/01; 20:51:51MT
$$$$$ 281.00 $$$$$VanRip (11/30/01; 21:05:14MT
$$$$$280.50$$$$$$Solomon Weaver (11/30/01; 23:03:28MT
$$$$$$279.50$$$$$$The CoinGuy (11/29/01; 21:48:53MT
$$$$$$$279.00$$$$$$$Shermag (12/1/01; 13:30:47MT
$$$$$$ 278.50 $$$$$$Broken Tee (11/30/01; 10:52:21MT
$$$$$278.00$$$$$Artie Farkle (12/1/01; 11:04:03MT
$$$$$278.00$$$$$$ RobotGuy (12/1/01; 13:31:55MT
$$$$$277.5$$$$$Gandalf the White (11/29/01; 20:17:49MT
$$$$$277.00$$$$$Waverider (11/30/01; 01:23:24MT
$$$$$$276.60$$$$$$wiley (11/29/01; 22:47:01MT
$$$$$276.50$$$$$$$goldenpeace (11/30/01; 04:45:06MT
$$$$$276.00$$$$$ cwa (11/29/01; 21:29:00MT
$$$$$275.50$$$$$Ducat (12/01/01; 07:48:39MT
$$$$$$ 275.00 $$$$$$ Gimli_ (11/29/01; 22:00:38MT
$$$$$274.50$$$$$Black Blade (11/29/01; 21:54:25MT
$$$$$$274.00$$$$$mikal (11/30/01; 22:54:23MT
$$$$$$ 273.50 $$$$$$$ Christian (11/30/01; 06:41:42MT
$$$$$$273.00$$$$$$$$Canuck (12/01/01; 09:00:56MT
$$$$$272.50$$$$$Mythical (11/30/01; 18:08:12MT
$$$$$ 272.00 $$$$$Henri (11/30/01; 11:44:46MT
$$$$ 271.50 $$$$ Argent (12/1/01; 10:16:21MT
$$$$$$270.00$$$$$$Flatlander (12/1/01; 18:32:56MT
$$$$$$268.50$$$$$$HopeingII (12/1/01; 22:37:42MT

Gandalf the WhiteUPDATE ------GC1Z Price Guessing Contest #6622512/2/01; 10:24:12

Progress Report as of 12/2/01 10:10MT
MK says: HEAR YE! HEAR YE!! --we will have a price guessing contest. Where gold will close on Friday, December 7th on the Comex. Each entry must be surrounded by dollar signs as follows $$$$$30,000$$$$$. The winner will receive a one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic. Let's make the guesses in 50¢ increments. All entries must be posted by 5pm MST Tuesday, December 4th.
$$$$390$$$$$ Chicken man (12/1/01; 19:16:27MT
$$$$$350.00$$$$$sourdough (12/1/01; 09:28:15MT
$$$$$$320.00$$$$$$Scarab (12/1/01; 15:30:22MT
$$$$$300.00$$$$$Max Rabbitz (11/30/01; 20:07:20MT
$$$$$$297.50$$$$$$ Netking (12/2/01; 01:53:34MT
$$$$$$296.50$$$$$$tedw (11/30/01; 19:50:42MT
$$$$$296.00$$$$$THX-1138 (12/1/01; 00:31:32
$$$$$ $292.50 $$$$$darkhorse (11/30/01; 18:48:35MT
$$$$$289.50$$$$$goldquest (11/30/01; 23:12:21MT
$$$$$$288.50$$$$$slingshot (12/1/01; 13:02:04MT
$$$$$287.75$$$$$Hydro (11/30/01; 20:53:23MT
$$$$$282.50$$$$$ uponroof (11/30/01; 20:57:34MT
$$$$$$281.50$$$$$$Buena Fe (12/1/01; 20:51:51MT
$$$$$ 281.00 $$$$$VanRip (11/30/01; 21:05:14MT
$$$$$280.50$$$$$$Solomon Weaver (11/30/01; 23:03:28MT
$$$$$$279.50$$$$$$The CoinGuy (11/29/01; 21:48:53MT
$$$$$$$279.00$$$$$$$Shermag (12/1/01; 13:30:47MT
$$$$$$ 278.50 $$$$$$Broken Tee (11/30/01; 10:52:21MT
$$$$$278.00$$$$$Artie Farkle (12/1/01; 11:04:03MT
$$$$$278.00$$$$$$ RobotGuy (12/1/01; 13:31:55MT
$$$$$277.5$$$$$Gandalf the White (11/29/01; 20:17:49MT
$$$$$277.00$$$$$Waverider (11/30/01; 01:23:24MT
$$$$$$276.60$$$$$$wiley (11/29/01; 22:47:01MT
$$$$$276.50$$$$$$$goldenpeace (11/30/01; 04:45:06MT
$$$$$276.00$$$$$ cwa (11/29/01; 21:29:00MT
$$$$$275.50$$$$$Ducat (12/01/01; 07:48:39MT
$$$$$$ 275.00 $$$$$$ Gimli_ (11/29/01; 22:00:38MT
$$$$$274.50$$$$$Black Blade (11/29/01; 21:54:25MT
$$$$$$274.00$$$$$mikal (11/30/01; 22:54:23MT
$$$$$$ 273.50 $$$$$$$ Christian (11/30/01; 06:41:42MT
$$$$$$273.00$$$$$$$$Canuck (12/01/01; 09:00:56MT
$$$$$272.50$$$$$Mythical (11/30/01; 18:08:12MT
$$$$$ 272.00 $$$$$Henri (11/30/01; 11:44:46MT
$$$$ 271.50 $$$$ Argent (12/1/01; 10:16:21MT
$$$$$$270.00$$$$$$Flatlander (12/1/01; 18:32:56MT
$$$$$$268.50$$$$$$HopeingII (12/1/01; 22:37:42MT

Gandalf the WhiteOOPS !!#6622612/2/01; 10:25:05

Yellow JacketPrice guess#6622712/2/01; 10:51:56

I think gold moves back up this week.

tedwLiars, and damned liars #6622812/2/01; 11:09:19

I guess its pretty clear that Enron "cooked" its books. The question I have is how many other US Corporations are just plain lying about their financial situation. How widespread is it? Proforma liars and loophole liars. How many other kinds of liars are there. It does not give one a lot of faith in the US economy,the Stock Market,or the SEC.
Maiden FanPrice Guess#6622912/2/01; 11:13:21

Goldfly$$$$$$$ 271.00 $$$$$#6623012/2/01; 12:07:06

OK Gandy, get me in.

What if the price lands on 25 cents?
Gandalf the WhiteSIR Goldfly's Question#6623112/2/01; 13:04:19

Not to Worry, SIR Goldfly!!
The COMEX only uses tenths of a point in the pricing.
Perhaps the NEXT contest will use "dime" increments ?
We shall see.

Black BladeData to Rain on Stocks' Parade#6623212/2/01; 13:57:25


NEW YORK (Reuters) - For months, investors have seen the silver lining in every cloud, but a bucket of economic data this week may remind them an anticipated rebound is still far off, raining on Wall Street's recent rally and sending stocks lower. Investors pinning their hopes on a recovery by the middle of 2002 could get a dose of reality about the near-term outlook from upcoming economic statistics -- including Friday's key U.S. jobs data and a closely watched U.S. manufacturing sector report due on Monday.

Black Blade: This week could be "Interesting." However, the real harsh data will come out after the first of the year as many small and medium sized firms slash and burn. These companies wish to wait til after the holidays to give out the bad news and pink slips (when everyone is in debt from holiday shopping). Meanwhile there is absolutely no positive news to trade on. Corporate earnings are declining and as share prices increase it is ever more apparent that the stock market is grossly overvalued in spite of claims to the contrary by the Trolls, Pied Pipers and Pimps of Wall Street. It does not look to improve for some time. In a word - "GRIM"

Black BladeEnron Set for Dubious Place in Business History#6623312/2/01; 14:02:31


NEW YORK (Reuters) - The sudden humbling of energy trader Enron Corp. (NYSE:ENE) is likely to earn the company a place in any roster of the biggest corporate collapses and financial scandals in history.

Black Blade: Interesting article. We should see a lot of fallout over this Enron derivatives scam.

Black BladeEnron files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy#6623412/2/01; 14:09:34


HOUSTON, Dec 2 (Reuters) - Enron Corp. (NYSE:ENE), its energy trading empire in tatters, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Sunday, and hit rival and one-time suitor
Dynegy Inc. (NYSE:DYN) with a $10 billion breach of contract lawsuit for pulling out of a last-ditch merger effort.

The filing in federal bankruptcy court in the Southern District of New York sought protection from creditors while Enron, burdened with at least $16 billion in debt, tries to reorganize its finances. Under Chapter 11 of the U.S. bankruptcy code, a company can continue to operate while it and creditors work out a reorganization plan. The lawsuit accuses Dynegy of wrongfully terminating a $9 billion merger deal last Wednesday. Enron also said it would implement substantial work force cuts, primarily at its Houston headquarters.

Black Blade: Tits Up! Shocking! Not really. It is finally done. 21,000 Enron employees eventually go off to the "Bone Pile" and many who lost their life savings in Enron stock while CEO Lay trots off with a cool $12 million. "Interesting Times"

Black BladeReport: Ford to Lay Off Hundreds#6623512/2/01; 14:15:53

Report: Ford to Announce Cost Cutting Measures, Including Laying Off Hundreds of Hourly Workers


DEARBORN, Mich. (AP) -- Ford Motor Co. [NYSE:F] is expected to lay out several steps to stem losses, including cutting some benefits for white-collar employees and laying off hundreds of hourly workers. The latest moves, which could save the company hundreds of millions of dollars, are detailed in a draft of a company news release -- dated for issue on Wednesday -- that was reported by The Detroit News on Sunday. In that document, Ford chairman and chief executive William Clay Ford Jr. called the moves painful but necessary and said more actions are to come.

Black Blade: More nonessential "Bones" driven off to the growing "Bone Pile." In a word - "GRIM"

Interstate@mikal#6623612/2/01; 14:17:18

Mikal, are you from Texas?
Solomon WeaverOro's detailed rebuttal to Noland post.#6623712/2/01; 14:23:39


Glad to see your detailed rebuttal to this weeks Bubble Report.

One of the great things in economics is so many differing opions that are all somehow right.

The main take home message for me from Noland is that consumers are using their homes to buy their durable goods.

I really appreciate your posts because they remind me that although the system is under stress.....there is still a lot of strength remaining in the dollar....and that is good because a rapid dollar demise would be hope is for a 30-50% correction over about 3 years..which would simply bring us back to historic norms...and let us export goods again...


goldquestEnron Bankruptcy#6623812/2/01; 14:28:31

This must be a first! A federal bankruptcy court open for business on a Sunday! They must want to keep the markets orderly for Monday! To bad Enron didn't file for chapter 7. That would have really upset the NYSE.
megatroncontest#6623912/2/01; 14:50:46

$$$$ $269.00$$$$$
NetkingArgentina slaps curb on cash#6624012/2/01; 15:04:52

The Argentine Government has announced emergency measures in an effort to prevent the collapse of its financial system as citizens rush to withdraw their savings. Savers will be restricted to withdrawing no more than $1,000 in cash per month, and - with a few exceptions - transfers of funds abroad will also be limited to $1000. . . . "

Comment: Hmmmm, the peoples search for confidence, security & above all . . . . sound money.

Quixote$$$$$285.00$$$$$#6624112/2/01; 15:04:57

ji(No Subject)#6624212/2/01; 16:36:24

Gandalf the WhiteUPDATE ------GC1Z Price Guessing Contest #6624312/2/01; 16:46:13

Progress Report as of 12/2/01 16:40MT
MK says: HEAR YE! HEAR YE!! --we will have a price guessing contest. Where gold will close on Friday, December 7th on the Comex. Each entry must be surrounded by dollar signs as follows $$$$$30,000$$$$$. The winner will receive a one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic. Let's make the guesses in 50¢ increments. All entries must be posted by 5pm MST Tuesday, December 4th.
$$$$390$$$$$ Chicken man (12/1/01; 19:16:27MT
$$$$$350.00$$$$$sourdough (12/1/01; 09:28:15MT
$$$$$$320.00$$$$$$Scarab (12/1/01; 15:30:22MT
$$$$$300.00$$$$$Max Rabbitz (11/30/01; 20:07:20MT
$$$$$$297.50$$$$$$ Netking (12/2/01; 01:53:34MT

$$$$$$296.50$$$$$$tedw (11/30/01; 19:50:42MT
$$$$$296.00$$$$$THX-1138 (12/1/01; 00:31:32

$$$$$ $292.50 $$$$$darkhorse (11/30/01; 18:48:35MT

$$$$$290.00$$$$$ji (12/2/01; 16:36:24MT
$$$$$289.50$$$$$goldquest (11/30/01; 23:12:21MT

$$$$$$288.50$$$$$slingshot (12/1/01; 13:02:04MT

$$$$$287.75$$$$$Hydro (11/30/01; 20:53:23MT

$$$$$285.00$$$$$Quixote (12/2/01; 15:04:57MT

$$$$$282.50$$$$$ uponroof (11/30/01; 20:57:34MT
$$$$282.00$$$$Maiden Fan (12/2/01; 11:13:21MT
$$$$$$281.50$$$$$$Buena Fe (12/1/01; 20:51:51MT
$$$$$ 281.00 $$$$$VanRip (11/30/01; 21:05:14MT
$$$$$280.50$$$$$$Solomon Weaver (11/30/01; 23:03:28MT
$$$$$280.00$$$$$Yellow Jacket (12/2/01; 10:51:56MT
$$$$$$279.50$$$$$$The CoinGuy (11/29/01; 21:48:53MT
$$$$$$$279.00$$$$$$$Shermag (12/1/01; 13:30:47MT
$$$$$$ 278.50 $$$$$$Broken Tee (11/30/01; 10:52:21MT
$$$$$278.00$$$$$Artie Farkle (12/1/01; 11:04:03MT
$$$$$278.00$$$$$$ RobotGuy (12/1/01; 13:31:55MT
$$$$$277.5$$$$$Gandalf the White (11/29/01; 20:17:49MT
$$$$$277.00$$$$$Waverider (11/30/01; 01:23:24MT
$$$$$$276.60$$$$$$wiley (11/29/01; 22:47:01MT
$$$$$276.50$$$$$$$goldenpeace (11/30/01; 04:45:06MT
$$$$$276.00$$$$$ cwa (11/29/01; 21:29:00MT
$$$$$275.50$$$$$Ducat (12/01/01; 07:48:39MT
$$$$$$ 275.00 $$$$$$ Gimli_ (11/29/01; 22:00:38MT
$$$$$274.50$$$$$Black Blade (11/29/01; 21:54:25MT
$$$$$$274.00$$$$$mikal (11/30/01; 22:54:23MT
$$$$$$ 273.50 $$$$$$$ Christian (11/30/01; 06:41:42MT
$$$$$$273.00$$$$$$$$Canuck (12/01/01; 09:00:56MT
$$$$$272.50$$$$$Mythical (11/30/01; 18:08:12MT
$$$$$272.50$$$$$BR549 (12/1/01; 19:16:51MT
$$$$$ 272.00 $$$$$Henri (11/30/01; 11:44:46MT
$$$$ 271.50 $$$$ Argent (12/1/01; 10:16:21MT
$$$$$$$ 271.00 $$$$$Goldfly (12/2/01; 12:07:06MT

$$$$$$270.00$$$$$$Flatlander (12/1/01; 18:32:56MT

$$$$ $269.00$$$$$megatron (12/2/01; 14:50:46MT
$$$$$$268.50$$$$$$HopeingII (12/1/01; 22:37:42MT
See the "open guesses" ? Also, if I have missed your "guess post", please YELL at me.

HOOSIER GOLDBUGCONTEST!#6624412/2/01; 17:14:24

$$$$$$$$$$$$ 270.50 $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Black BladeIndices Point Lower#6624512/2/01; 17:21:00

The market indices are pointing to a lower open probably as a result of Enron's bankruptcy filing this afternoon. Foriegn currencies are crashing tonight against the USD as the shock waves are ripping across the globe. Even petroleum prices are falling as the Global economy is poised to crater below the 9-11 levels and petroleum demand is expected to fall in kind. Going forward we could see bankruptcies from the resulting Enron shakeout. Look for an acceleration in layoff announcements and earnings warnings. Those corporations with excessive debt are likely to experience a lot of severe pain. In a word - "GRIM"
FrostyContest#6624612/2/01; 17:28:43

Hope I'm to low :)

NetkingSharon seeks Bush OK for attack that could end Arafat era #6624712/2/01; 17:38:11

A key M.E. meeting over the weekend to determine the course of action in the days & weeks ahead. After events of the last few days one thing we can be sure won't happen is . . . nothing. - Netking

"In his meeting with President George Bush today, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon may seek U.S. backing for a counterattack that would either exile Yasser Arafat or destroy the Palestinian Authority altogether.

Sharon had been scheduled to meet Bush on Monday. But aides said Bush has agreed to meet Sharon at Sunday noon Eastern Standard Time in the wake of two devastating suicide bombings over the weekend that killed at least 25 Israelis. . . ."

Mr. Billtest#6624812/2/01; 17:42:20

this is a test
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Mr. Billtest#6624912/2/01; 17:48:16

this is another test

Black BladeWall St.'s 70's show #6625012/2/01; 17:51:00


Dow, Nasdaq stand on brink of a dubious milestone not seen since 1974

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The U.S. stock market faces a daunting task this month, when only a heroic gain can save the major indexes from the first back-to-back annual decline in 27 years.

Black Blade: Nothing but bad news everywhere you look. Get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get basic goods and food stores, and get enough cash on hand to meet expenses. The comparisons should be made to 1929 - not 1974.

BR549POG Contest#6625112/2/01; 18:13:47

$$$$$272.50$$$$$Mythical (11/30/01; 18:08:12MT
$$$$$272.50$$$$$BR549 (12/1/01; 19:16:51MT

Sorry, Mythical beat me to the winning entry.

How about $$$$$268.00$$$$$ instead.

GeneDec.7th gold close#6625212/2/01; 18:22:33

My guess (hope) is $$$$$302.50$$$$$

ShermagGandalf, two guesses at same price#6625312/2/01; 18:59:18

$$$$$278.00$$$$$Artie Farkle (12/1/01; 11:04:03MT
$$$$$278.00$$$$$$ RobotGuy (12/1/01; 13:31:55MT

Correct me if I am wrong but I believe that the first guess at a price owns that price. Is that correct?

USAGOLDWhy Gold, Why Now: Sunday Edition#6625412/2/01; 19:32:13

PANIC IN ARGENTINA, COLLAPSE NEAR . . . . . Argentina edged close to bankruptcy yesterday as people queued at cashpoint machines and bank tellers' windows to withdraw money after a government decree restricting bank withdrawals and overseas transfers. Passengers on planes and ships were frisked for illegal dollar stashes before leaving the country. The decree sparked fears of an imminent devaluation of the peso, wiping out savings overnight. (As reported by

ENRON COLLAPSES: CONCERNS OF DOMINO EFFECT. . . . . "By every measure, this is the largest Chapter 11 case in history,'' said Peter Chapman, president of Bankruptcy Creditors Service Inc. ``If Enron were a sovereign nation, it would be the 30th-largest in the world between Egypt and Malaysia." (As reported by


DOLLAR IN TROUBLE . . . . . . . As hopes fade for an early U.S. economic recovery, there's little reason for the dollar to do well this week . . . . . . (As reported by Dow Jones Newswires)

Gold up $1.10 in Access market . . . . . . . .

site stewardWhere Gold, Right Now: Sunday Solution#6625512/2/01; 19:37:24

Hey MK, how's THAT for site support?


WaveriderSlowdown in UK#6625612/2/01; 19:38:17

"The slowdown in the UK service sector is getting worse and more interest rate cuts may be needed according to a new report.

The latest quarterly survey of the sector by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and Deloitte & Touche found business volumes, confidence, profitability and prices all falling.

"You would dismiss this survey at your peril," said Roger Bootle, economic adviser to Deloitte & Touche, who argued that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) should think about cutting interest rates further.

"While some members of the MPC still think that their battle is with inflation, this survey makes it clear that for most business people their battle is now with deflation."

The Bank of England has already cut rates seven times this year, bringing the UK base rate down to 4%, as it tries to steer the UK's economy away from a recession."

Waverider: Lots of global economic doom 'n gloom, but when is POG going to move - the million $$$ question...

Gandalf the WhiteSir Shermag's Question !#6625712/2/01; 20:08:08

Shermag (12/2/01; 18:59:18MT - msg#: 66253)
Gandalf, two guesses at same price
$$$$$278.00$$$$$Artie Farkle (12/1/01; 11:04:03MT
$$$$$278.00$$$$$$ RobotGuy (12/1/01; 13:31:55MT
I do not make the rules, BUT, I do believe that you are correct ! Suggestion is, that Sir RobotGuy trys again.

MythicalBR549 #6625812/2/01; 20:13:06

No apolgy is necessary Sir. Winning bid? I should be so lucky(or should I say our newest little 5 month old goldbug should be, as she will be the one receiving in the end. Actually, I have faith that our generous host would furnish an additional prize in the event of identical bids. Please continue your fine contributions!
WW OracleContest#6625912/2/01; 20:19:51

The CoinGuyMK, ALL#6626012/2/01; 20:21:35

Just read an interesting article in GQ(Gentlemen Quarterly for the uninitiated). There is a section called "My Twenty Grand", where the writer of the article recommends different investments. The December issues article concentrates on US gold coins and starts like this:

When Times are good, any investment will do. P/E ratio? Fuhgeddaboudit! When times are lean, shorting stock is the smart play. But when times are terrible , what glitters is good old gold. For centuries, whenever wars have started and woes have stacked up, people have tended to turn paper money into the precious metal. Does it make sense? Maybe not, but paper is paper, however staunchly governments back it; the ancient need for the sheer physicality of the yellow ore can't be denied..

They go on to explain the facets of grading, why US coins are good to hold as part of an overall portfolio strategy, as well as a few staunch tips from David Tripp where he makes specific recommendations. He stated he likes the 5 piece $20 type set(Type I,II, and II Liberty, High-Relief St. Gaudens, Regular St. Gaudens). NOTE: It is a beautiful set with lots of gold, but it is also a lot of money. For specific recommendations, I'd talk to your humble host.

I just thought it was a timely article from what I've read in here today.

The only part of the article, I didn't care for is the part of the highlight above, where the author says, "Does it make sense? Maybe not". I think it makes a lot of sense. I've been sleeping well at night, my friends at Enron haven't. A strong statement? Yes. Although, after I've read all of these articles coming out of Turkey, Argentina, and probably next Japan. I think it's time for some of these people to wake up to the harsh reality of fiscal and financial responsibility, or at least don't invest all of your eggs in the same basket.

A relative whispered this to me after dinner last night, "Think its time to jump into Enron?". I about spit my coffee across the table. I was glad to read on here today that Enron filed, I figured it might save another person from making a wrong decision. I've had plenty of friends jump on another local bandwagon(LVLT), boy the stories I could tell...

The Bubble is still alive,

The CoinGuy

WW OracleEnron Bankruptcy#6626112/2/01; 20:23:01

Now that Enron has filed Chapter 11, what's to keep them from securing an additional line of credit from their now-desparate creditors and shorting the metals markets to oblivion?
USAGOLDRandy. . . .#6626212/2/01; 20:31:41

To answer your very good question:

(Your link) Both timely and strong.

That's why I need you guys. Always leaving things off. Forgetting things. Wandering about without a purpose.

Oh my. . . . . .

Thanks, Randy.

By the way these Russian pieces are very difficult to get -- the 15 Rouble variety -- and they are a beautiful thing to see with the double headed eagle reverse. We've had a good reaction thus far, but I do not think that people understand the potential here or they would be completely gone by now. A good item to stick away for children and grandchildren -- not to speak of its ability to raise the interest level in a collection of pre-1933 items. We've never had them before and I don't think we will see a hoard like this again for awhile. Well worth adding now while you can.


I was not aware of how strong Anglo Gold's position was
over Newmont on the Normandy merger until I read what
Tim Wood of Mining Web revealed on Nov 30 01, and what
Black Blade said today Dec 02 01 on the USA Gold Forum.

Tim revealed that:

1. Anglo Gold for the 3rd Q 2001 had the most
" net profit per share "
of 21 top world gold producers representing 94%
of world gold production

2. Anglo Gold was the only company of the above group
to make it to the " North East Corner " - the best
corner to be in - of the 'area' chart which Tim
devised with:

y axis being: Total Ounces of Gold Produced

x axis being: Net Profit per ounce

Black Blade quoted Anglo Gold Chief Bobby Godsell:

"Godsell said
Newmont this year had made its profits out of Peru, Bolivia, Indonesia
and Uzbekistan.
He added AngloGold's U.S. operations (ed: Newmont's home
base) had been affected by the California
power crisis which caused soaring electricity rates... All countries have risk profiles."

Looking at Anglo Gold's superior balance sheet and the substantial political and energy supply risk facing Newmont, it would seem that Normandy shareholders would be
prudent to go with Anglo Gold.


USAGOLDCoin Guy. . . .#6626412/2/01; 20:42:38

I don't know if you were around for it, but we recommended the $20 St. Gaudens and Liberties in various grades as collector items for those of our clientele looking for a greater risk/reward ratio than bullion and pre-1933. We placed some very big numbers with various clients. Most of the recommended group shot up over $100 or better per coin and then settled back a bit. This would be a good time to add if you didn't catch the first wave. We're looking for more upside and rate them a buy and hold for the right type of client. I'll add again that we do not see these as a replacement for a safe-haven holding, but they do have strong appeal as a capital gain vehicle and worth a commitment as a supplement to one's overall holdings. Thanks for bringing it up and giving me an excuse to tell this little story.
BR549The best of luck to your 5 month old Goldbug#6626512/2/01; 21:05:28

Mythical (msg#: 66258)---

I am glad to see what wise parents she is already blessed with. I hope that she wins.



Black BladeAx - AngloGold/Newmont Bidding War#6626612/2/01; 21:09:46

Unfortunately Tim Wood does not account for actual profits. He uses "cash operating profits." This is Gold mining's version of Pro Forma accounting. A much better measure is the PE ratio where actual cash in hand after expenses is used. Tim Wood neglects these "minor" issues. Hedge fund AngloGold is in dire straits as they "MUST" win this bidding war. They have their backs against the wall. If the POG rises significantly, they and hedge fund Barrick will go tits up. Clearly the combination of unhedged Newmont and unhedged/no debt Franco-Nevada is the much better deal. Cheers!

- Black Blade

ROSEBUD99Price Guess#6626712/2/01; 21:21:03

I'm always optimistic. :)

tedwGold and Silver play#6626812/2/01; 21:24:13

Ive had my thinking cap on a little.

Agnico-Eagle (AEM) has been mentioned many times as an unhedged gold miner. However, I stumbled on to a site today that listed it as Also a major silver miner. The information was a little dated but state 3,000,000 ounces of silver in 1997.

Does anyone know AEM current status as a silver producer?
It could be a single ticket to 2 rides.

Also the largest silver producer in the world appears to be
BHP billiton (NYSE:bhp) and it appears to be a profitable company with a P/E Ratio of about 20. Are they hedged?
Whats the skinny?

Black BladeAsian Markets Tank#6626912/2/01; 21:25:52

The Nikkei and Hang Seng are falling hard tonight as the Enron scam is sending shock waves across the globe tonight.
USAGOLDShotgun Marriages#6627012/2/01; 21:27:25

I was struck with the fact that Argentinian authorities are shaking people down at customs to see if they are trying to escape with dollars. We must remember that in Argentina the dollar is being used as a proxy for gold -- and I don't quarrel with that ( mistaken as the notion might be). I do pose a question though for their American counterparts -- "Which currency would an American use as a proxy for gold?" I have often said that in 1933, the U.S. government did not confiscate gold because they needed the asset; they confiscated it because they needed the American people to hold onto the currency no matter how much they devalued it. I have little doubt that the Argentinian government is of the same frame of mind -- no matter the damage to the citizenry (as described in the snippet below). In both cases -- the U.S. then and Argentina now -- the relationship between citizen and currency would best be described as a "shotgun marriage." You can see in the Argentinian situation another claim I have often made "Don't underestimate what government's will do to their citizens when the need is acute." I still feel that pre-1933 gold coins stand the best chance of keeping the client safe if the government should move against gold. Few people know that pre-1933 gold coins were traded in the United States between 1933 (when gold was confiscated and outlawed) and 1975 (when it was relegalized), and that premiums actually skyrocketed in the late 1960s when it became apparent that the dollar was being overproduced. Those interested in learning more about this can go to the link above to get the details in a report written by George Cooper and myself titled "You Can Suvive a Potential Gold Confiscation." The information at that page is very well organized and makes a strong case. The premiums for pre-1933 European gold coins over bullion, though higher, are not as high as many believe. It is worth looking into.
Black Bladetedw - BHP#6627112/2/01; 21:32:35

Sorry that I can't help you with AEM. I worked briefly for BHP on a couple of projects in the early 1990's. They were primarily a conglomerate with extensive base metal interests. They were also involved in everything from steel, coal, petroleum, industrial holdings, and my favorite - Fosters brewing. As far as silver, I don't think that they were a primary silver producer, though silver is a strong secondary component of base metal production. BHP was in terrible financial shape for several years. I understand that they have shaken loose of several unproductive holdings including their copper mines. Cheers!

- Black Blade

LimitUpPOG Contest#6627212/2/01; 21:33:35

The CoinGuyMK#6627312/2/01; 21:46:22

I've been around USAGOLD since it's inception, in fact I remember the days of Big Trader at Kitco.

"I'll add again that we do not see these as a replacement for a safe-haven holding"

This stood out to me from your post, wise words my fellow gold bug. Gold comes in many forms, and it may all be hard and yellow, but the return is not always the same, and I don't believe all forms are held for the same reason. I hold bullion, foreign, as well as U.S. premium coins at different times because of the leverage factor. It pays to diversify even within the yellow metal itself. This is why a person needs to consult a professional in this area of numismatics...From what I can tell you are well qualified.

The (physical)CoinGuy

uponroofWaverider........when?#6627412/2/01; 21:49:56

Hi Waverider, I suspect that was a rhetorical question but I couldn't resist a response.

Waverider: "Lots of global economic doom 'n gloom, but when is POG going to move - the million $$$ question..."

I keep telling myself that this is an all or nothing game. Gold cannot be allowed to rise for obvious reasons, all of which include critical global financial ramifications. Being 'real money', as miniscule as it is in market cap terms, it is still the folcrum for several very important economic indicators.

38 billion $ buys all the gold mines in the world and 375 billion $ buys all the gold (36,000+- tonnes) 'stored' in Central Banks (wherever those deep dark places may be!) Putting that into perspective, AOL market cap is 163 billion, GE's is 400 billion, Microsoft's is 344 billion, JPM's is 79 billion (and shrinking thanks to Enron).

So we have a very small industry (and related assets) which are crucial to the health of several major economic indicators which influence global economic conditions. These very powerful, interested partys, literally having all the money in the world at their disposal, are going to manipulate for their best interests.

The strategy is simple. Keep the POG rangebound so investors like you and I will say: "Lots of global economic doom 'n gloom, but when is POG going to move" (sound familiar?). I've been saying the same thing for years, as have we all (recall Canuck's passionate post on Friday).

The gold cartel hammers away at the POG causing pyschological damage to those considering the precious metals markets. Up until now they have had to fight only the few savvy investors like we here who understand their game, and they desperately want to keep it that way.

If 'the investing herd' ever joined our side, bringing their trillions of descretionary capital into this tiny market, the cartel would be roadkill, and they know it. So stategic discouragement, at important times, is the name of the game.

What is so utterly amazing is that through so many recent volatile economic and political situations, POG has remained rangebound. Precise hammering after 911 shocked the investment world that POG did not take out 300.

That's damage that not only quashed the initial ralley, but will have residual effects in playing out negatively in any future gold moves. People are not missing the recent 'weak performance' out of gold, and they are hesitant to enter.

The cartel strategy, reminds me of that small band of soldiers who are able to keep the enemy's entire army at bay through deception. These few imply, through building hundreds of campfires each night, that their numbers are greater than they are. The army becomes discouraged at the believed size of their opponent and eventually withdrawls.

But keep in mind that this is a tightrope of sorts. Manipulation cannot be precieved as obvious. They must continue this without the appearance of intervention, and it grows more difficult each day thanks to GATA. This may be our greatest hope. The growing transparency of POG manipulation.

Is it dead? Will anything ever shake loose the iron grip of the world's elitist money changers and allow confidence to soar back into real money? I truly don't know, but I do believe the truth will come out. It always does. When it does, rest in the knowledge that if all Hell finally comes out with it, you have secured a position to safely ride it out.

Meanwhile, thanks to MK for the contests (and Gandalph the White for such accurate updates, with open spaces). As we prepare and wait, nice to pass the time like this.

NetkingSilver - Lease rates#6627512/2/01; 22:02:42

Silver comment from Mr Leonard Kaplan:
"Upon a doubling of short-term lease rates in London on Friday, silver prices managed to rally 10 cents for the week and even flirted with resistance at the $4.20 level.
Silver prices are being pushed a bit by sympathetic support
from copper and the base metals, which have been very strong, and by some rumors about the potential leasing activity, or lack of such, from Warren Buffet, who probably still owns about 130 million ounces of silver.

"There are consistent rumors floating around to do with our friend Warren (Buffett) in Omaha," Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Ill. said. "The question is, is he going to lease his silver out again? Don't forget annual renewal is in January-February." With London bankers unlikely to offer him a yearly lease rate of more than 0.75%, Kaplan doubted Buffett would have any interest in renewing leases. "If he doesn't lease it out, silver would probably rise sharply," he predicted. But Buffett could simply be playing with the bankers, waiting for lease rates to rise.

Netking Comment: The current "blow out" in Ag lease rates, a sure sign of an impending "spike" in the POS, which also happens to match up with seasonal trading patterns over 30+ years & also current cycle timing . . . . stay tuned.

I suspect "nobody(paper long)will be allowed out alive" from Comex if the POS tries to go too far past $10/Oz too quickly. Interesting days ahead friends.

BR549***** "Alan Greenspan, Maestro or Music Man?" *****#6627612/2/01; 22:27:13

Alan Greenspan is the "Music Man"

Meredith Willson's "The Music Man":
"Welcome to band practice! We're working on the Minuet in G right now. Are you familiar with the Minuet in G? You know, la de da de da de da, la de da, la de da. And again..........If not, try "76 Trombones"


76 trombones led the big parade

With a hundred and ten cornets close at hand

They were followed by rows and rows of the finest virtuosos

The cream of every famous band

76 trombones hit the counterpoint
While a hundred and ten cornets blazed the way
To the rhythm of march! march! march!

All the kids began to march
And they're marching still right today!
Or try "Ya Got Trouble"


Well either you are closing your eyes to a situation you do not wish to acknowledge...

Or you are not aware of the calibre of disaster
Indicated by the presence of a pool table in your community
Weeellll, ya got trouble my friend

Right here, I say, trouble right here in River City "

BR-Well said, Robert Preston---

Robert Preston, the original Music Man was the role model for Alan Greenspan. AG started with a reputation of being the Maestro Arthur Fiedler of economics only to end up as the victim of his own misguided policies. He has practiced his craft of economics and banking similar to the hours put in by the maestro of the Boston Pops. AG practiced his skills as an underling to the financial community always with his objective to lead the nation's overall financial strategy in perfect harmony.

AG did not believe in gambling but because he allowed financial manipulations such as derivatives to prosper under his watch, he will be the "Music Man" over the greatest financial disaster of all times.

Robert Preston was a pool hustler skilled in the ways of a professional gambler. He loved to say: "Saturday night-and that's trouble! Ya got trouble folks! Right here in River City! Trouble with a capital T and that rhymes with P and that stands for pool! Oh, ho we got trouble. We're in terrible, terrible trouble "

We got trouble right here in the USA and its all because of the not so well intended AG maestro's misguided leadership of the Fed. AG took traditional economic theory and misapplied it to a derivative world. The reason the fiscal and monetary policy of the FED is not working in this modern era is that AG did not take into account the gambling that was taking place in derivatives.

Interest rate reductions will not work if all bets are hedged via derivatives. The recent Enron collapse is the beginning of many economic failures both public and private around the world which will be caused by the inattention to what is really happening.

Derivatives, a.k.a. "risk shifting", are not reflected in Enron, the Fed, world corporations, world banks, or any financial statements. The only solution is to regulate corporations via entities similar to the SEC and other world regulatory agencies such as the World Bank. The world's Central Banks need to regulate themselves via rules established by the BIS and their own incentives to prevent disaster.

All paper by its own definition is corrupt and the only non-corruptible financial strategy is to own physical Gold.

Once you have accumulated enough physical Gold to hedge yourself against the abuses built into the "paper" systemic meltdown that is coming, then you can sit back, relax, and enjoy the music.

The economy that AG attempts to orchestrate is playing a tune of its own and not according to AG's intended direction. Once you are safe with enough physical Gold, then the band can play on to your benefit, and to the manipulator's detriment.


goldquest; 22:40:51

Let's get ready to rumble! This brawl should bring gold to public exposure!
goldquest(No Subject)#6627812/2/01; 22:48:16

Sorry, try this.
Black BladeNormandy relishes rivals' interest#6627912/2/01; 23:08:44


SYDNEY, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Courted by the world's two biggest gold miners, Australia's Normandy Mining Ltd told shareholders on Monday to sit tight on a fresh bid by South Africa's AngloGold Ltd and raised the prospect of ``further developments''.


AngloGold yielding some seven million ounces a year, argues it will maintain a hedging policy within Normandy, meaning it will sell at least part of what is mines at fixed future prices. Newmont has said it would unwind Normandy's hedge book of around 7.7 million ounces, running through 2010, to align it with its own policy of direct exposure to fluctuations in world bullion markets.

Black Blade: As I have said, AngloGold "MUST" acquire Normandy at all costs. They "MUST" have more ounces to deliver into the hedge book. AngloGold is desperate beyond description. They face the prospect of going tits up if they don't get enough ounces to deliver. If they get Normandy they will likely gut the deposits like a fish through high-grading. It should be noted that CB's and BB"s are about to greatly reduce their Gold giveaway programs (aka Gold loans). This puts the screws to AngloGold and other hedge funds like Barrick. Booby Godsell is sweating bullets as it is crunch time for AngloGold. "Interesting Times"

Black BladeNormandy Mining says too early to decide on new AngloGold offer#6628012/2/01; 23:24:47


Normandy Mining said on Monday that it was premature to make any recommendation on AngloGold's revised takeover offer for the company, flagging the likelihood of "further developments", given Newmont Mining's continued interest. AngloGold last week raised its offer for the Australian gold miner, adding a 20¢ per share cash sweetener to its scrip offer of 2.15 AngloGold shares for every 100 Normandy shares.

Black Blade: No one mentions that there is a $40 million breakup fee if the Newmont-Normandy deal fails. That has to be drawn into the equation even with AngloGold sweetening the offer. AngloGold is so desperate that Newmont could keep raising the bid to a level that when AngloGold covers, they will put AngloGold in financial distress. AngloGold "MUST" cover. They have no choice.

Waverideruponroof:#66274#6628112/2/01; 23:26:19

Extremely well articulated uponroof - thank you. It was, as you said, a bit of a rhetorical question but it's reassuring reading thoughts/ideas that mirror your own when it seems that most of the world wants you to believe differently. You're dead on - the truth does always come out - always - and not even Eddie and his boys will succeed in this perpetrated lie indefinately. My can I say..misgiving.. is that as this unfolds and/or explodes, alot of people are getting/going to get hurt - some deservedly, probably many more quite innocently (and ignorantly). In the meantime, yes, we prepare and wait...patiently, and have a beer or two!

Black BladeAsian Markets Get Slaughtered!#6628212/2/01; 23:35:09

The Nikkei and Hang Seng indices get ripped a new one tonight. A resumption of the race to sub 10,000? The Enron shock waves rip through Asia and now on to Europe.
BR549Holiday Shipping Advice FWIW---#6628312/2/01; 23:44:18

If you are going to ship Gold or any other precious item as a Holiday gift to your loved ones or others, then you should know some facts about those "Big Ugly Brown Trucks" and other shipping methods gained from years of experience as a vendor. Our company ships "Hand Made in the USA" ART all over the world, and we have some strong feelings about how shipments should be made in the US and internationally.

If you want your Holiday gift to arrive before the end of the year, then you should plan on shipping it no later than next week.

Some little known other facts about shipping:
1.When you use a shipping service located in a shopping center, do not take the insurance, it is a waste of money, especially if you use the Brown Truck service. They will gladly take your insurance money at sometimes double the transporter's going rate but the odds of you collecting damages from a lost or mutilated shipment are slim at best, so save your money.
2.Why the shipper will not pay your claims on insurance. The brown truck service will use one of two arguments against your insurance claim—the item was not packed properly and so it was not the shipper's fault. It does not matter whether you packed it yourself or had the shipping center pack it, the argument is the same.

OR, it is not their fault that the package was not delivered in a timely manner. The brown truck company does not guarantee any shipments timely arrival after 11/11 via their fine print policy. If you ship Christmas goods and they arrive in January, then they will return your lost package to you eventually, and call it even. Or course, you have lost your customer's business or your loved one's respect but who cares—certainly not the big ugly brown truck company.
3.Even if you did file a claim on insurance, it will not be paid to you. The most amazing part of the brown truck company policy--you as a shipper do not have a contract with the shipping company (the shopping center shipping center does) even though you paid the insurance premium. Therefore, the transporter will only pay the shipping center and not you. You then have to collect from the shipping center which is privately owned. If they decide not to pay you, then you may have to bring a lawsuit against them. they go bankrupt all of the timne and if you have a significant claim in precious metals, then you may have a lot of difficulty collecting. Not so with the postal service.

If you are thick headed and think that the only way to ship it to use the ugly brown truck company, then either take the package down to one of their shipping hubs or have the package picked up at your house or business. Don't use a shipping center. Again, the stupid way to ship.

We have used the United States Postal Service and have never had a lost or damaged package since 1995. We suggest to use priority mail (2/3 day delivery in the US and somewhat longer internationally). Send your package as ordinary mail with delivery confirmation. Insurance is optional, but if you identify it as Gold coins, you may not be using your best judgment. Insurance, package tracking, and other services are available that the big ugly brown truck service offers, but why bother? Do you really care where your package went? We had a package stop in 10 states that was supposed to have gone less than a thousand miles. What you really care about is that it ends up where you sent it.

I have opinions about the other so called overnighters but they are similar to the ugly brown truck outfit. And for every horror story that someone may have about the U.S. postal service, I would bet that I have twice as many about the ugly brown truck outfit from customers who specify them as their delivery preference (they have a right because they do pay the shipping).

Good luck in getting your gift where it needs to go on a timely basis.

Busy with last minute shopper's shipments, so let me be the first to wish everyone Happy Holidays!


WaveriderBonsoir and goodnight#6628412/2/01; 23:55:09

BB: Thanks for your thoughts/news/etc...


The Invisible HandIn defence of non-governmental currency speculators#6628512/3/01; 00:39:27

Cavallo, the guy who speculated 10 years ago that pegging the peso to the dollar would make a stable currency of the peso, is saying that currency speculators have brought down the peso-dollar link. He's even likening them to vultures according the text under the picture at the link.

Yet, the truth of the matter is that far from causing monetary fluctuations, it is the currency speculator who prevents them. And far from safeguarding the stability of the peso, it is Cavallo who must bear the prime responsibility for causing the present crisis. It is indeed Cavallo who instituted the peso-dollar peg, thereby causing the present crisis. Cavallo's hatred for the currency speculator is as great a perversion of justice as can be imagined. We can best see this by realising that the currency speculator is a person who buys and sells dollars/pesos in the hope of making a profit. She is the one who, in the time-honoured phrase, tries to ‘buy low and sell high’ as explained by yours truly's namesake.

The speculator is the person who lessens currency fluctuations by buying dollars/pesos when their price is low in pesos/dollars and by selling dollar/pesos when their price is high in pesos/dollars. If speculators are wrong in their evaluations, they will be weeded out.

Contrast this to Cavallo. He also tried to lessen currency fluctuations. He has been wrong, but unfortunately for the Argentines, there is no weeding-out process for speculating government bureaucrats. Since Cavallo's salary did not rise and fall with the success of his speculative ventures (the peso-dollar peg) and since his own money is safe in Swiss bank-accounts, he was careless in his speculation that pegging the peso to the dollar would make a stable currency of the peso.

Source: BLOCK, W., "Defending the Undefendable", New York, Fleet Press Corporation, 1976

skiKeeping the record straight .... in silver#6628612/3/01; 00:50:17

There has been considerable discussion on this forum on the avaliability of silver in units of 100 ounces or less. There have been several reports that these smaller units are un-avaliable at many coin shops. This development should be expected. But, are we painting an accurate picture of silver avaliability?

Last week I called a major West Coast coin dealer and talked to the owner about silver. He said the following:

"There is a shortage of silver. I have had to raise my premiums to the customer about 66% when compared to pre 9-11. I still have adequate supplies of 100 ounce silver bars avaliable but they carry the higher premium."

One week ago, I talked to another silver bug and he said that he had visited a few coin shops and they were effectively out of silver.

Just wanted to "keep the record straight" so that we all can make prudent and informed investment decisions.

Chris PowellMore about GATA's work at New Orleans conference#6628712/3/01; 01:27:39

More about GATA's work at the New Orleans
Investment Conference:

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
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you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

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OROThinking about Enron - leverage - interest rate error#6628812/3/01; 01:30:22

Enron was owned by some of the strongest mutual fund management teams, and some of the debt market players with the strongest analytical teams. These groups got their heads handed to them with only Oscar Schaefer, among Wall Street high profile personalities, having publicly predicted the problem in Barron's as far back as June.

Everybody was taken in, and so were, it seems, top Enron management. The only escapee seeming to understand what happened - and he is completely silent - is the suddenly disappearing former CEO Skilling who quit a short while back in Mid Aug leaving behind a rich compensation and severance package untouched.

Miscalculations on the scale of Enron's that take in the best minds the financial world has to offer can only be result of systemic miscues such as provided by artificial credit expansions, where an artificial low interest rate is dictated by the central bank.

To quote myself (msg #66129):
"The Enron Boom and Bust were an immediate and unavoidable result of REGULATION. The regulator who caused the disaster was Greenspan himself. He did this by forcing upon us a credit expansion, which allocated capital to Enron through the use of bank credit. Once through direct bank lending at below market rates in 1998-99, and again by artificially lowering derivative time premiums - which are proportional to the exponential of the interest rate. This allowed Enron to open trading operations that were only marginally profitable using bank credit, and then forced them to compete with under-priced premiums - which forced the profit margin below that required to justify the initial investment. The losses drove the company under. Once they were weakened, everybody took positions counter to Enron's in expectation of their forced liquidation, thus amplifying the potential losses.

"The mechanism of failure was the normal and routine mechanism seen in every central bank inflation activity since these were first created. The credit expansion in response to LTCM's near collapse, a 1 trillion dollar problem, created Enron's 1 trillion dollar problem.....

"The derivatives trade is just quicker to react to credit expansions and more sensitive to departures of interest rates from their market clearing levels. Excess Bank Credit is immediately applied to derivative trading, by expanding outstanding risk capital. Volumes of derivatives grow when interest rates are at low artificial levels because the fees charged by traders to put their capital at risk are lowered exponentially. The time premiums are lowered by the artificial low interest charges as they are proportional to an exponent of the interest rate, and demand increases at a higher rate than a drop in price.

"Thus at say, 5% interest rate, the result of an error in interest rate setting of 0.25% too low (the Fed's favorite step size) would cause the time premiums to fall by 5.4% and would cause outstanding volumes to expand by some 20%. If that error is followed by simply setting the "right" interest rate, then the market will try to contract the 20% excess derivative volumes. As the new price would be at the higher level of 5.7% higher (5.4% on the way down is 5.7% on the way up), the result would be that the issuers of the prior (lower priced) derivatives would have a loss of 5.7% on a volume of 120 derivatives vs, the 100 they would otherwise have issued, or a loss of 6.8% of capital put at risk. If the issuer was operating with 10% reserves, the borrowing at 4.75% at which the 120 derivative contracts (instead of 100 at 5%) were issued would have obtained a wipeout of 68% of their capital, effectively putting them out of business.

"Thus if the Fed was 0.25% behind the curve in raising interest rates in 1999-2000, then 0.25% behind the curve in lowering interest rates on the way down in 2001, then the wipeout of capital of 10% reserved derivative issuers would be assured because of the reverse error, of having rates 0.25% HIGHER causes market clearing issuance levels to fall by a further 17% beyond the fall from 120 to 100. Outstanding contracts would TREND TOWARDS A fall from 120* to 83 as the premium's prices would rise 11.7% (AT 5.25% RELATIVE TO THAT AT 4.75%) and bring a 14% CAPITAL loss. Only those reserved at a level much higher than 14% would survive. All the derivatives issued by the weaker issuers would become near worthless (commonly 20 cents on the dollar), and would be repurchased from the surviving issuers at the higher premiums resulting from the erroneously high interest rates, and from the fact that capital offered for risk would be, initially at least, insufficient to fill market demand (because of the wipeout of weaker competitor's capital)."

I think the credit market (treasury rate) and commodity market volatility we have gone through immediately after the Oct 24 resignation of Enron's Fastow (CFO) and on the Nov 9 declaration of Dynergy's intentions, was the process of undoing Enron's books, as was (I suspect) the Treasury's decision to stop the 30 year bond. The latter had the intended effect of immediately dropping interest rates and putting Enron's supposedly strong book of treasuries up by 6% (a big change for a highly leveraged company).

It is the Fed's over-reaction to the 98 LTCM crisis which I see as having caused the great expansion of derivatives on Enron's part. Others in the market, who have learned from prior experience what the limits of leverage are in the derivatives arena may not have this sort of problem.

The counterside to a below market fiat interest rate is a below market gold (and silver) interest rate, which should cause a similar expansion in gold derivatives.

NetkingSki - silver#6628912/3/01; 01:50:37

Sir Ski, I think the main theme to these reports was that silver is "beginning" to be unavailable in some/many places, but seemingly not in others. Sir Galearis did some good investigative work (some posts over last week or so)which indicates some of the smaller bars are being melted down to make 1,000 oz bars(+/- 12%) and that investor demand for coins/bars is increasing also. My city is "silver dry" as are it seems a number of other places. Some spots in the USA are not out including parts of the West Coast as is also the case with parts of Australia which has an ok supply for the moment. (USAGold/CPM is a silver seller)

The figures on world silver inventory cannot be disproved. Neither can the fact that 5,000 years of mined silver has been nearly used up and that the yearly deficit of silver useage from what is supplied has entered it's second decade.

Leasing & short selling has contained the POS but not for much longer. The real power of this market (like gold) will be in the hands of those who hold the physical metal, not a paper promise. The greater the degree of manipulation (in amount & time) . . . . the greater will be the realignment of markets forces needed to bring the fundamental forces of demand and supply to where they should be.

We are now facing a silver shortage for years & years to come, the only thing that can change now is remaining physical supply and . . . P-R-I-C-E. - Netking

LeighHere We Go - THE ULTIMATE "PM Investors Are Potential Terrorists" Article#6629012/3/01; 03:45:43

This is great! The U.S. Mint is selling silver dollars with hidden knives inside.
LeighChris Ruddy at the New Orleans Conference#6629112/03/01; 05:29:41

In this morning's editorial, Chris Ruddy of NewsMax talks about the New Orleans Investment Conference.

Mr. Ruddy mentions (among other things) meeting Barbara Bush. One notable quote: "I was reminded of what a friend at the Hoover Institute who has advised W. told me: 'Remember, W. takes after his mother and, fortunately, not his father.'"

Black BladeEurope In The Red#6629212/03/01; 05:37:35

European markets head lower on Enron fallout. US indices are alo set to move lower.
Black BladeEnron, Argentine Woes Hit Shares, Dollar#6629312/03/01; 06:03:35


LONDON Dec 3 (Reuters) - The dollar and share markets lost ground on Monday as the collapse of U.S. energy trader Enron and renewed jitters about the Argentine economy added to market fears about the timing and pace of a global economic revival. Banking stocks led the downturn on worries about the sector's exposure to Enron which on Sunday filed for bankruptcy protection from creditors. Spanish banks were also hit by news Argentina had introduced restrictions on the transfers of funds abroad and set a $250 per week limit on cash withdrawals. The restrictions came after Argentines lined up for hours on Friday to withdraw cash, worried their savings could be frozen as the government carries out a massive debt restructuring to trim interest costs on its $132 billion debt.

Black Blade: Last night I saw news footage of the Argentine run on the banks. It was just like the run on Russian banks a few years ago. Panicked bank customers were swarming tellers cages demanding their money. I am afraid that many will lose out as the peso is devalued before they can get their cash and exchange it for something of value.

Black BladeAngloGold offers brokers incentive to win Normandy bid#6629412/03/01; 06:12:05


JOHANNESBURG, Dec 3 (Reuters) - The world's largest gold miner AngloGold on Monday raised the handling fees it will pay brokers to encourage shareholders of Australia's Normandy Mining Ltd (Australia:NDY.AX ) to accept its takeover bid soon. "AngloGold believes it is appropriate to pay the modified handling fees to encourage brokers to initiate acceptances for our superior offer given the pending Christmas period,'' AngloGold said in a statement.

Black Blade: Sheer desperation! Newmont could put the screws to hedge fund gold short AngloGold with a higher bid and playing up the $40 million walk-away fee that will be paid by Anglo if Newmont-Franco-Normandy merger fails. Bobby Godsell must be sweating bullets.

The Invisible Handgold up $2.2#6629512/3/01; 08:07:47

Israeli helicopter gunships have launched a series of air strikes on Palestinian targets in the Gaza Strip.
The BBC's Kylie Morris says Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's headquarters have been hit and are on fire. Mr Arafat is reported to be in Ramallah on the West Bank.
Our correspondent says there have been a series of large explosions and the attacks are continuing across the city.

Goldfinger 2POG#6629612/3/01; 08:12:43

USAGOLDToday's Report: Gold Surges on Enron, Argentina#6629712/3/01; 08:40:44


In Brief: Gold surged in international markets pushed by Enron declaring the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history and the Argentina peso and economy hurtling toward possible collapse. The potential ripple effect to the world banking system from this one-two punch had the dollar and equities markets reeling in overnight markets and caused a surge in safe-haven gold demand in both Asia and Europe. Driven in recent weeks by consistently strong physical buying internationally, gold could get an added boost if speculators decide to cover the large short position on the Comex. J.P. Morgan, according to a Dow Jones reported, declared the yellow metal in a "bull mode."

Those of you looking for a deeper understanding of the forces at work in the gold market will find our latest Quarterly Review a beacon in a sea of market confusion. In it, master analyst and prominent market maven, James Grant offers his views on the subject in an extensive article not to be missed titled "For Real Money." You can receive Mr. Gran'ts thinking by hard copy and private download by going to our sign-up page linked above and requesting an Introductory Information Packet. And Mr. Grant is only a small part of our 32-page Review. We also feature some advice from Hong Kong's Dr. Marc Faber "When Things Don't Add Up," and my own "After the Twin Towers: New Realities for Gold Investors." All in all, the net effect is to re-orient your thinking to the present circumstances. Your inquiry is welcome.

We also invite you to browse our jewelry section. The Termine-Winer Classic Collection of 18-karat designer crafted jewelry was suggested to us by the World Gold Council. It is of very high quality, sure to please and the prices are right. I know most male shoppers like to put things off to the last minute but given the price breaks and lack of sales taxes that come with buying from us on-line, it might pay to get this done as soon as possible. If you wait too long we may not be able to get you the order on time. Just call and talk to Marie or order right at the page on-line. Your order will come by Fed-Ex -- a done deal. Your selection comes in a very nice black velvet box with a very classy card that goes with it. We really went out of our way this year to offer something we think your loved ones will appreciate.

To see our jewelry line go to the link above (Where Santa rides the reindeer!)

Those looking for an on-line overview of the forces at work in the gold market will find the review to the right of interest. It covers the longer term view.

I've posted some good article summaries and links at the Commentary and Review page.

If you have an interest in pricing out gold coins or having your questions answered, you phone call is welcomed at the toll-free phone numbers at the bottom of this page.

USAGOLDBlack Blade. . . .Sweating Bullets#6629812/3/01; 09:06:30

"Bobby Godsell must be sweating bullets."

In reading you description of BGs possible state of mind I was reminded of the old Lee Trevino story about pressure on the golf course. Someone said to him one time that the pressure over a three foot putt to a win a major championship must be unbearable. Trevino, who at one time made his daily bread (beer money?) hustling the country club circuit, said that in those situations there was no pressure at all. "My money's not on the line," he said, " If I miss the putt I still make a big paycheck." Then he added, "Making a three foot putt to win a $100 Nassau when you only have $10 in your pocket is the definition of pressure."

Caveat: Quotes might not be exact but the message is there. Godsell will still get his paycheck whether or not the Normandy deal flies, so the bullets he sweats are likely of the crocodile variety. If these hedged mine company managers had their own money on the line, I doubt the mining companies would be in the trouble they are in now with respect to the hedging mess. Who would want to own a gold mining company that had essentially placed a bet against the very metal it depended upon to make a profit? Hypocrisy aside, it's alot easier to justify when stockholder money, not yours, is on the line. Then again, Bob Davie did get fired over the weekend, didn't he -- with four years left on his contract -- so maybe Godsell is sweating bullets. I would like to think he is.


. You know what, Dark horse, I've been thinking what you've been thinking.

We're due for a contest and it would be productive to tap the collective wisdom around this noble Table. I agree.

But how to break the psychic dam and get the ideas to flow?

Nothing like a challenge to match the quality of the poster and lurkers present. This idea came to me while having
lunch today and browsing over the latest GRANT’S Interest Rate Observer. It seems that one of James Grant's
friends -- a fellow named Paul L. Kasreil who does economic research for Northern Trust Co. -- posed a most
far-reaching question. One that is making the rounds among people who talk markets as well as those who enjoy the
same as a worthy pre-occupation.

The question is this:

------------------------------------ Alan Greenspan: Maestro or Music Man? ----------------------------

The book, "Maestro", was the subject of a great deal of conversation here when it came out several months ago and
opinion was pretty much divided on it -- some thought it characterized a master at the peak of his powers. Others
saw it as a whitewash of a Fed chairman who simply injected liquidity willy-nilly at a time when the world had no
where to turn but the dollar. Some called him genius. Others called him lucky. Still others called him confused --
pumping money into the system at one turn and deriding "irrational exuberance" the next.

But Maestro or Music Man?? Now that's intriguing, and very much worth a contest.

For those of you scratching your head at the choice, I will remind you that The Music Man, one of America's
favorite all-time musicals, is the story of band director/con artist. The following from famed critic, Clifford Ridley
captures the Music Man for our purposes:

"Bierko is a younger Hill than Preston, yet with his slicked-back hair, his self- dramatizing gestures and his roving
eyes constantly scouting for trouble, he's every inch the two-bit con man. As advertised, he delivers Hill's fervid
patter with dash and musicality; and at the end, when he's unmasked by the unconditional love of a good woman,
he's quite touching. And he has a splendid foil in Luker, who sings Marian's arching melodies in a limpid soprano
and persuasively metamorphoses from chilly skeptic to loving co-conspirator. She also has a fine way of saying
"Ssssh" - an admonition, fortunately, that this ebullient production mostly ignores."

And then here's a passage from the preface to Bob Woodward's "Maestro" which more than adequately captures the
essence of the Maestro side of the coin:

"Greenspan is slated to remain chairman of the Federal Reserve until 2004. Not only is he a major figure in the
world's economic past, he is central to its future. He has been frank enough to stand before the new and amazing
economic circumstances that he helped create and in the end declare them a mystery. It is impossible to account fully
for the continuing high growth, record employment, low inflation and high stock market."

And, toward the end of this important book:

"Greenspan also represents something more than the confidence wing of the American Personality. He stands at the
point where the country's eternal optimism meets the country's abiding suspicion that something will go wrong. . .
That fear also creates a kind of excitement and anticipation.Greenspan stands at the crossroads of optimisim and
pessimism. Each of us is a character in the nation's great economic soap opera; Greenspan is both director and

So, the question before the table is this:

***** "Alan Greenspan, Maestro or Music Man?" *****

Lovable Con-Man or Brilliant Fed Chairman?

I will leave with another thought of Mr. Kasreil -- as I think the computer cannot be taken out of the present
equation without missing a major part of the analysis:

"Economics how do we measure that? Well, I can tell you there has been a very increase in productivity, at least at
my shop. When I joined the Northern Trust over 15 years ago, it took three senior economists and three research
assistants about two weeks to come out with an inaccurate economic forecast, and with this laptop, I can do it all by
myself in one day."

The world, I know, is not spinning any faster than it used to be but who among us would deny that it is. . . . . . . .
.So Maestro or Music? You be the judge.

Each entry must address the question in sufficient length but no more than is absolutely necessary to make the point
-- the eternal bane of the writer. An appropriate link is acceptable. The contest will be judged not on the choice you
make but on the erudition and argumentative skills used to make your case. Please surround your entry with stars as
shown. The winner will get a lucky French Angel gold coin -- the one they say Napoleon carried throughout his
campaigns until he lost it . . . . .the day before Waterloo. As Darkhorse suggests the entry-post must also include
some reference as to what the future might bring by the end of the year (for posterity's sake). As always, the post
must conclude with how all of this relates to gold and gold ownership -- and it is there that the worm turns, where
the contest will decided. The runners up -- two of them -- will receive a Mexican Azteca silver coin.

First time posters will receive a one-ounce U.S. Silver Eagle but in order to claim the price you must indicate that
you are a first-time poster with Jill Snyder ( This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ). The post must be an entry into the main contest --
"Alan Greenspan, Maestro or Music Man." First time posts in the price guessing contest (see below) do not count
toward the Silver Eage Prize. Pls include your current mailing address.

The posting contest will go from this moment through Sunday, December 9, 2001 when midnight graces the purple
mountain majesties.

* * * * * * * * * * *

In addition to the posting contest, we will have a price guessing contest. Where gold will close on Friday,
December 7th on the Comex -- the December contract. Each entry must be surrounded by $$$$$$ dollar signs as
follows $$$$$30,000$$$$$. All entries must be posted by 5pm MST Tuesday, December 4th.
The winner -- he or she who comes closest to that closing price -- will receive a one
tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic.

* * * * * * * * * * * * *

Good luck all. May the best poster win.

Old YellerHedge fund with a gas pipeline on the side#6630012/3/01; 09:33:52

Good article on Enron and the unfolding implications.Does
this sound familiar?

"Dynergy never gave the impression of being terribly keen on the deal despite bullying by bankers."

Bullying bankers,including some from JPM and C,probably sweating the odd bullet.

LampreyQuick test of my new handle...#6630112/3/01; 09:43:39

Needed an upgrade!
LampreyPOG Contest#6630212/03/01; 09:52:17

uponroofPOG up a buck on London close#6630312/3/01; 10:30:58

In the recent past (past few months) bull raids of 3-5 bucks have begun at noon est, after London close. PM bull raid beginning?
Gandalf the WhiteUPDATE ------GC1Z Price Guessing Contest #6630412/3/01; 10:31:09

Progress Report as of 12/3/01 10:20MT
MK says: HEAR YE! HEAR YE!! --we will have a price guessing contest. Where gold will close on Friday, December 7th on the Comex. Each entry must be surrounded by dollar signs as follows $$$$$30,000$$$$$. The winner will receive a one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic. Let's make the guesses in 50¢ increments. All entries must be posted by 5pm MST Tuesday, December 4th.
$$$$390$$$$$ Chicken man (12/1/01; 19:16:27MT

$$$$$350.00$$$$$sourdough (12/1/01; 09:28:15MT

$$$$$$$331.00$$$$$$$LimitUp (12/2/01; 21:33:35MT

$$$$$$320.00$$$$$$Scarab (12/1/01; 15:30:22MT

$$$$$302.50$$$$$Gene (12/2/01; 18:22:33MT

$$$$$$$300.50*******Goldfinger 2 (12/3/01; 08:12:43MT
$$$$$300.00$$$$$Max Rabbitz (11/30/01; 20:07:20MT

$$$$$$297.50$$$$$$ Netking (12/2/01; 01:53:34MT

$$$$$$296.50$$$$$$tedw (11/30/01; 19:50:42MT
$$$$$296.00$$$$$THX-1138 (12/1/01; 00:31:32

$$$$$ $292.50 $$$$$darkhorse (11/30/01; 18:48:35MT

$$$$$290.00$$$$$ji (12/2/01; 16:36:24MT
$$$$$289.50$$$$$goldquest (11/30/01; 23:12:21MT

$$$$$$288.50$$$$$slingshot (12/1/01; 13:02:04MT

$$$$$287.75$$$$$Hydro (11/30/01; 20:53:23MT

$$$$286.50$$$$$ROSEBUD99 (12/2/01; 21:21:03MT

$$$$$285.00$$$$$Quixote (12/2/01; 15:04:57MT

$$$$$283.50$$$$$Lamprey (12/03/01; 09:52:17MT

$$$$$282.50$$$$$ uponroof (11/30/01; 20:57:34MT
$$$$282.00$$$$Maiden Fan (12/2/01; 11:13:21MT
$$$$$$281.50$$$$$$Buena Fe (12/1/01; 20:51:51MT
$$$$$ 281.00 $$$$$VanRip (11/30/01; 21:05:14MT
$$$$$280.50$$$$$$Solomon Weaver (11/30/01; 23:03:28MT
$$$$$280.00$$$$$Yellow Jacket (12/2/01; 10:51:56MT
$$$$$$279.50$$$$$$The CoinGuy (11/29/01; 21:48:53MT
$$$$$$$279.00$$$$$$$Shermag (12/1/01; 13:30:47MT
$$$$$$ 278.50 $$$$$$Broken Tee (11/30/01; 10:52:21MT
$$$$$278.00$$$$$Artie Farkle (12/1/01; 11:04:03MT
$$$$$278.00$$$$$$ RobotGuy (12/1/01; 13:31:55MT
$$$$$277.5$$$$$Gandalf the White (11/29/01; 20:17:49MT
$$$$$277.00$$$$$Waverider (11/30/01; 01:23:24MT
$$$$$$276.60$$$$$$wiley (11/29/01; 22:47:01MT
$$$$$276.50$$$$$$$goldenpeace (11/30/01; 04:45:06MT
$$$$$276.00$$$$$ cwa (11/29/01; 21:29:00MT
$$$$$275.50$$$$$Ducat (12/01/01; 07:48:39MT
$$$$$$ 275.00 $$$$$$ Gimli_ (11/29/01; 22:00:38MT
$$$$$274.50$$$$$Black Blade (11/29/01; 21:54:25MT
$$$$$$274.00$$$$$mikal (11/30/01; 22:54:23MT
$$$$$$ 273.50 $$$$$$$ Christian (11/30/01; 06:41:42MT
$$$$$$273.00$$$$$$$$Canuck (12/01/01; 09:00:56MT
$$$$$272.50$$$$$Mythical (11/30/01; 18:08:12MT
$$$$$ 272.00 $$$$$Henri (11/30/01; 11:44:46MT
$$$$ 271.50 $$$$ Argent (12/1/01; 10:16:21MT
$$$$$ 271.00 $$$$$Goldfly (12/2/01; 12:07:06MT
$$$$ 270.50 $$$$HOOSIER GOLDBUG (12/2/01; 17:14:24MT
$$$$$$270.00$$$$$$Flatlander (12/1/01; 18:32:56MT
$$$$$269.50$$$$$ Frosty (12/2/01; 17:28:43MT
$$$$ $269.00$$$$$megatron (12/2/01; 14:50:46MT
$$$$$$268.50$$$$$$HopeingII (12/1/01; 22:37:42MT
$$$$$268.00$$$$$ BR549 (12/2/01; 18:13:47MT

$$$$$$263.80$$$$$$WW Oracle (12/2/01; 20:19:51MT
Less than 29 hours to go. The price has ranged from a low of $273 to a high of $276.50 --- so far!!

uponroofPrecious Metals Up #6630512/03/01; 11:29:09

Enron, NAPM, Argentina, Japan, Israel, Afghanistan, NDY, etc etc. If I had to guess I'd say it'll be up between now and Friday.

"...It's looking okay on the charts now,'' he added. ``We have got to get through $278, and if we do that I think we can get right up around the $282/283 area ..."

Hummmm, Let's see now, who has guessed between 282 and 283?

The CoinGuyGandalf, ORO...#6630612/03/01; 11:33:43

Was wanting to thank you for posting the Dec futures contract(GC1Z), I was wondering if the winning price was based off the futures contract or spot. I was over at MRCI, and for the first time hoping gold didn't go up to fast(grin).

Also, I haven't seen much of a move in the long end of gold lease rates, but short term, especially 1m has really been on the move. Too much more and we'll be looking at backwardation. I'm not predicting this, but it sure seems to me the spread is getting closer each day.

ORO: Appreciated your comments on ENE, I've heard different debt levels, secured and unsecured, that are floating around internationally. Amounts from several billion secured, with 20-30 billion unsecured. And then I hear the "trillion" # bantied about, I believe I even heard that one on CNBC. That would be a heck of a stretch, from 30b to 1 trillion? Any idea which # its closer too? Or is this an item best left to the accountants and lawyers?

Best Regards,


The CoinGuyuponroof#6630712/3/01; 11:45:50


I think you forgot the most important part of your analysis:

"...It's looking okay on the charts now,'' he added. ``We have got to get through $278, and if we do that I think we can get right up around the $282/283 area ..."

, and by Friday afternoon, we should be just in time to back & fill for a close right around

The CoinGuy

uponroofEnron....To give that some perspective, it's double the as the estimated cost of the terrorist attacks on America.#6630812/3/01; 11:46:56

Tim Wood's take on the damages. Some very good responses from readers at the bottom of the page also.

"...On that basis, we might conclude that Enron could have derivative exposure of at least $100 billion assuming that it was not nearly as aggressive or adventurous; hence the $250 billion estimate mentioned earlier. But that is still massive by any means and dwarfs the $3.65 billion that was required to bail out LCTM. If exposure of $1.25 trillion could be closed out with time and $3.65 billion, then how much easier to quell Enron's upset.

So much for being too big to fail. Something has changed and it cannot be that Enron was a Texas oil business that the Wall Street smoothies disdained. Of course, there is a genuine hint of malfeasance in all this while LCTM was just guilty of recklessness and hubris. That may be the sum total of the explanation. The other possibility is too awful to contemplate – that you must rack up bolder losses to get the Fed's attention.

The James Dean school of finance. Live fast, die young, don't worry about the corpse..."

uponroofCoin Guy#6630912/3/01; 11:54:34

Notice also that I omitted the 'chief dealer' was talking about February gold, not GC1Z (Dec 01). Oh well, didn't take long for that to come out. ;-) but I looked smart there for a few minutes.

In any event, best of luck to you my friend...

actually, I'm rooting for Chicken Man (390).


The CoinGuyuponroof#6631012/3/01; 12:01:24

I'll have to be honest here...I'm rooting for Chicken Man too...and by Friday would do nicely.

Go Chicken Man Go!!!!


NetkingThe CoinGuy etc#6631112/3/01; 12:08:13

I also hope Chicken Man wins, heck I don't even mind if his winning guess is $10 short(smile). Rich. maybe MK could add Ag in the future & try to make it a Au/Ag double guess!
RobotGuyArtie Farkle#6631212/3/01; 12:11:17

My apologies Artie, I didn't realize that you posted a contest guess for $278.00. I didn't see any regulation on the number of guesses for the same value, but I would assume there is only one prize available. You have submitted your guess prior to mine, so therefore should the price close at 278.00 I commend you on your swift action. For all intents and purposes, I too shall root for the Chicken Man.
Gandalf the WhiteGC1Z #6631312/3/01; 12:22:56

GC1Z Settled at $276.9 today on the COMEX, after hitting a high of $277.5

NetkingTalk of sharpshooter lifts Normandy . . . . Look out for Barrick.#6631412/3/01; 12:25:26

Expectations grew yesterday that the world's most powerful gold company, the Canadian-based Barrick, was about to blow away competing bids for Normandy Mining by AngloGold and Newmont.

If it comes to pass - there is no guarantee it will - Normandy chief and founder Robert Champion de Crespigny will have his once seemingly magical $4 billion target valuation for the group in sight . . . "

Comment: If Barrick enters the ring this will not be surprising but it WILL be interesting. As we have said before the stakes are very high to all players, they will play to win. - Netking

Gandalf the WhiteRe: Black Blades warnings#6631512/3/01; 12:31:47

WOW -- Look at the AU chart on the 30 Min int.
Someone is getting OUT bigtime !!
Looks as if BB has nailed another one correctly!!!

goldquest"The Enron black magic, part one"#6631612/3/01; 13:28:28

Crooked congressmen? Who would have thought it!
It is only going to get worse. Buy GOLD, NOW!

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLDCommon sense investing for uncommon times...#6631712/3/01; 13:29:00

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Elwood***** "Alan Greenspan, Maestro or Music Man?" *****#6631812/3/01; 13:43:52

Alan Greenspan conducts the Financial System Pops in his beautifully rendered "Variations on a Theme of Classical Inflation in D-Flat"

In the realm of Romantic monetary manifestations, Inflation enjoys unmatched staying power. The majority of its mature works have been repertoire staples from the time they were composed, and likely will remain so as long as bankers walk the earth.

Most of Inflation's output is concentrated within small forms, where its evil genius truly takes wing. Its Chinese and Roman inheritance is reflected in the heroic manias and incredibly varied crashes. The coin-clipping, edge-shaving, and over-worked printing presses reveal the influence of statists bel canto melodic filigree along with the air of the tulip bulb dealers of Holland where Inflation cum options contract also held court. The more complex and personal works, however, embody a strong classical streak. If the Etudes of Asian Contagion represent the New Testament of debasement technique, the subject's youthful bank failures, variations on currency devaluation, and sundry occasional national emergencies reveal that Inflation's thieving style was pretty much solidified from an early age.

Tackling Inflation en masse is a formidable challenge even for as voracious an inflationist as Alan Greenspan, who busies himself with "tiny" projects like the LTCM debacle, bailout de Mexico, and, once again, lowering his rates. Originating in the late 1980s, his complete Inflation cycle is bundled as a specially priced box set for the upcoming meltdown of the world financial system. There's much to admire here. Greenspan's dynamically charged, gutsy conducting style exemplifies Rothbard's analogy of Inflation's music to "consumers buried in flowers." Like his one-time teacher Ayn Rand, Greenspan has a keen feeling for Inflation's polyphonic textures, abetted by his active and imaginative left hand, the US Treasury Department. His leisurely, exploratory approach to the Bonds, Gold, the LTCM Ballade, and the late interest rate adjustments uncover details that often go unnoticed, yet also weaken the rhythmic fiber of the more lyrical, harmonically dense Argentine Waltz. On the other hand, the slower Etudes breeze by with freely singing cantabiles, and the musically slight but liquidity-draining early rate increases of ’99 came off with idiomatic flair. Not so for the mature polonaises of ‘00-‘01, which are spongy and prosaic compared with Rubin's rhythmic spring and lilting authority.

The works for Congressional Testimony and Greenspeak Overtures, though, shine with unpressured inflection and more sympathetic conducting than usual. It's interesting to compare Greenspan's ruminative conducting in the orchestral version of the FOMC Prelude and Grande Polonaise de Humphrey-Hawkins with the ECB's leaner, more unbuttoned unaccompanied version. The Third World Waltzes offer fascinating contrasts as well, from the inflationist's melancholy, cello-like rising left hand line in the Asia minor to his bracing, poker-faced reading of the American bubble. It's hit and miss with the Preludes: some are sharply profiled and projected, while others seem less digested, as if they had been "gotten up" for the microphone. By the same token, few inflationists take on the thankless Gold Crush Sonata in public, yet Greenspan's strong and committed conducting elevates the music beyond the ambitious student work it is. He also manages to make the curious, seldom played "Central Banks Stand Ready… Op. 46" sound more unimportant than usual, and makes as cogent a case for rarities like bullion, collectibles and golden works of art all the more appealing.

Greenspan's engineering takes on a metallic hue at loud moments, yet is more consistent than the uneven, tubby sonics hampering much of those from Sub-Saharan Africa and nations in which bananas or corned beef are the primary cash crop. The latter and the Asian Tiger's complete Inflation for the Ages (both omitting the concerted works) are packaged in space-saving cardboard, as opposed to these individual jewel cases housed in a thin box. No single inflationist can do equal justice to all of these works, yet Greenspan's stimulating and often masterly artistry is well worth the modest cost of 15 years of depression for the price of 10.

Verdict: Music Man

Gandalf the WhiteThe (PHYSICAL) CoinGuy's Question#6631912/3/01; 13:49:56

The CoinGuy (12/03/01; 11:33:43MT - msg#: 66306)
Gandalf, ORO...
Was wanting to thank you for posting the Dec futures contract(GC1Z), I was wondering if the winning price was based off the futures contract or spot. I was over at MRCI, and for the first time hoping gold didn't go up to fast(grin).
Yes indeed, it is the COMEX Dec Future contract (GC1Z) Settlement on Dec. 7th close that we are prognosticating. --
AND I too say "Go Chicken Man Go!!!!

CoBra(too)N.O. Conference -#6632012/3/01; 13:54:41

Just a short note from Dallas, the hometown of GATA's Bill Murphy - as I'm looking forward to have dinner with him tomorrow again.

It seems to me that Bill, Chris Powell and Reg Howe, as well as James Turk and many others are now starting to make a real impact as many of the excellent speakers at the conference admitted to a heavy hand in the gold market, if not outright intervention.

It was also great to meet the fine people of Harmony and Durban Roodeport, who again stepped up to the plate with their ongoing and generous support of GATA. I would like to salute them for their courage and think both companies have an outstanding management team, which bodes well for the future of their respective companies. I also hope that some other unhedged gold producers would follow their example.

Last, but not least I've been particularily pleased to meet some of the finest folks on this forum and the cafe. Special regards to Auspec and his most charming better half and Cavan Man, among many others.

I'm planning to do a more extensive overview on the conference as seen from an european view, when I get home next week.

Regards to all - cb2

Gandalf the WhiteOFFICAL DATA#6632112/3/01; 14:11:44

Gold (NYMEX:GC) ]
GCX1 Nov 2001 277.2 277.2 274.1 274.1 0 settle 7:28AM
GCZ1 Dec 2001 274.2 277.5 274.2 276.9 +3.2 settle 2:53PM
GCF2 Jan 2002 274.8 274.8 274.7 277.7 0 settle 2:53PM
GCG2 Feb 2002 275.8 278.7 275.5 277.9 +3.1 settle 2:53PM
Gold Spot (XAUUSDO)
Market Open High Low Last Change Time
Index-------275.20 278.50 274.80 278 +2.80 3:30PM
FROM the LINK which is reached from the USAGOLD Board Box above this Message Center.
NOTE that SPOT which closed later than the Futures markets continued to advance and is Higher that the GC1Z settlement. GO Chicken Man, GO !!

NetkingArgentina close to collapse after run on banks#6632212/3/01; 14:15:08

"Argentina edged close to bankruptcy yesterday as people queued at cashpoint machines and bank tellers' windows to withdraw money after a government decree restricting bank withdrawals and overseas transfers.

Passengers on planes and ships were frisked for illegal dollar stashes before leaving the country. The decree sparked fears of an imminent devaluation of the peso, wiping out savings overnight.

The run on the banks was only the latest sign that the financial crisis that has rocked Latin America's third-largest economy for the past four years shows no signs of abating. . . . "

megatronBrilliant#6632312/3/01; 14:20:06

Just give Elwood the award right now. I am laughing hard because it reminds me of the Simpsons episode where Homer was a film festival judge and Barney made a B+W french film about alchoholism and instead Homer voted for a short film of a guy getting kicked in the ba..s. Stop stop.....
NeubiePOG Contest#6632412/3/01; 14:22:02

$$$$$ 294.00 $$$$$
Chris PowellRemarks at GATA reception in New Orleans#6632512/3/01; 14:37:16

Remarks at GATA reception at New Orleans
Investment Conference.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
send an email to:

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

balzacCONTEST#6632612/3/01; 14:43:03

goldroadlx7*****contest*****#6632712/03/01; 15:27:45

*******283.00******* someone had to guess it? all the best to all of you goldroadlx7 good day!!
LeighElwood#6632812/3/01; 16:05:38

I wonder if any of Conductor Greenspan's recordings will go silver, gold, or platinum.
goldroadlx7$$$$$contest$$$$$#6632912/3/01; 16:36:09

$$$$$283.00$$$$$ opps! my mistake on not using $ on my guess. sorry !! goldroadlx7
Black BladeForbes Body Count#6633012/3/01; 18:16:47

Enron has begun to "Slash and Burn" as 4,000 nonessential "Bones" head off to the "Bone Pile." Many more will join these poor folks, many of whom just lost their life savings and the accumulation of several years worth of retirement funds loaded with Enron stock. In a word - "GRIM"
Netking"Gold to test lows near $270 before taking off in 2002" - Clif Droke#6633112/3/01; 18:17:59

Clif says:
"The gold market, in true-to-form counter-cyclical fashion, is trading opposite the equities market and the U.S. dollar, and will likely test the lows near $270 over the next several days. Silver, meanwhile, could see a bounce and feeble rally to $4.20-$4.25 before turning down to test the lows of the year near $4.00 - and perhaps slightly below. Both silver and gold are in the process of absorbing the last remaining lines of supply, and should be clear to launch their respective bull markets sometime in the first quarter of 2002.

Comex December gold futures are oscillating in sine wave fashion within a $25 trading range. The upper boundary of the cycle channels is at $295 with the lower boundary at $270 or slightly below. From the looks of the current cycle channel configuration, gold should continue meandering sideways over the next few weeks into early 2002 before finally turning around in the first quarter and heading upward to test psychological resistance at $300. Once the overhead supply that exists between $300-$320 is taken out gold will have the all-clear to trend upward and anon in a bullish Year 2002 for the yellow metal. . . "

Black BladeAngry Argentines Crowd Banks#6633212/3/01; 19:09:15

Angry Argentines Crowd Banks After Government Partially Freezes Bank Accounts


BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP) -- Banks overflowed with thousands of angry Argentines on Monday after the government partially froze bank accounts to stem a nationwide run on banks and avert financial collapse. Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo announced restrictions over the weekend, saying it was his only option to defend the Argentine peso's one-to-one peg to the dollar and escape a possible devaluation. The measure bars people from withdrawing more than $250 in cash per week from their accounts and restricts transfers abroad to $1,000 a month. Beyond that, Argentines will have to make payments using bank debit cards, credit cards, or checks to pay goods.

Banks filled for hours with disgruntled and confused clients. Some rushed in at closing time, like Juan Manuel Dedionigis, 26, who pounded noisily on the plate glass windows of a bank branch trying to get some attention. ``These new restrictions don't make any sense at all,'' he complained angrily. ``With the little cash they'll let us have, I guess I can get by for 10, maybe 15 days.''

Black Blade: Like scenes from 1929 or more recently - Russia 1998. Maybe coming soon to a bank near you. The Global Economy is in bad shape and getting worse. I know that I keep harping on this over and over, but it still makes sense - get out of debt, get basic dry goods and food stores, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and have plenty of cash on hand for several months expenses. I know that tonight there are a few million Argentines who wish they had taken that advice. "Interesting Times"

Black BladeMore Americans behind in making mortgage payments#6633312/3/01; 19:27:08


NEW YORK, Dec 3 (Reuters) - More Americans struggled to make their mortgage payments in the third quarter, as more people lost their jobs in a weak economy, according to a mortgage industry survey released on Monday. ``The weakening GDP (gross domestic product) and job losses in the technology and manufacturing sectors have affected homeowners' ability to keep their mortgage payments current,'' said Douglas Duncan, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association of America in a statement. In fact, homeowners have not lived these tough times in a decade during the height of the last recession. Low-income households were especially hard hit, according to the latest mortgage payment data.

Not only falling behind in their mortgage payments, Americans, saddled with debt burdens not seen in nearly 15 years, have been struggling to meet other debt obligations. Last month, bond rating service Standard & Poor's estimated that 5.1 percentage of credit cardholders were late in making their card payments in September, unchanged from August but up 1.4 percentage point from a year earlier. Americans, despite heavy debt burden and a worsening jobs picture, dug deeper into their wallets at the end of the third quarter, the government reported early Monday. Personal spending rose 2.9 percent in October for the biggest one-month increase ever, as record low mortgage interest rates lined the pockets of homeowners who refinanced in record numbers and automakers lured buyers with zero-interest car loans.

Black Blade: Consumer debt is rising and we will see record default rates. I expect to see record home foreclosures. I also wonder how many people lured by zero interest on auto purchases will be facing down the repo-man? The "Bone Pile" continues to grow and is likely to continue growing as this recession deepens further. Also of interest is how severe the shock waves will be as the Enron saga plays out. Many consumers will find themselves trapped with excessive debt. In a word - "GRIM"

Cavan ManJPM to the rescue or,#6633412/3/01; 19:36:55

"We're all in this together (like Argentina)"

Enron Lines Up $1.5 Billion in Bankruptcy Financing
By Jeff St. Onge and Jim Polson

New York, Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Enron Corp., a day after filing the biggest
bankruptcy case in U.S. history, lined up $1.5 billion in Chapter 11 financing from
a bank group led by J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc.'s Citibank.

U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Arthur Gonzalez in New York City let Enron draw $250
million from the credit line to keep its energy trading and other operations running
while it tries to reorganize. Seeking to avoid complete collapse, Enron cut 4,000
jobs at its Houston headquarters, more than half its staff there.

``Trading operations will continue and pipeline operations will continue,'' said
spokeswoman Karen Denne.

Gonzalez scheduled a Jan. 7 hearing to consider giving Enron access to the full
$1.5 billion line of credit. The company was down to its last $500 million in cash
without the help, Enron lawyer Martin Bienenstock told Gonzalez at a hearing
that lasted into the evening.

Enron also is suing Dynegy Inc. for $10 billion for its rival's about-face in
withdrawing a $23 billion bid to acquire Enron. Today Dynegy retaliated, suing in
a Texas court to gain control of Enron's Northern Natural Gas Co. pipeline.

Enron sought bankruptcy protection to rescue and revive its trading business,
which accounted for most of its $101.8 billion in revenue last year, said

Shares of Enron rose 14 cents to 39 cents. The stock traded as high as $90.75
last year.


The company is negotiating with three companies of ``impeccable
creditworthiness'' and hopes one will become a partner in its energy-trading
business, Bienenstock said. He said the company had less than a week since
Dynegy canceled its takeover to obtain temporary financing. ``Under the
circumstances, this was the only available credit,'' he said.

Enron won Gonzalez's permission to pay a minimum of $4,500 in severance to
fired employees, to spend as much as $40 million to complete construction of its
office tower in Houston and up to $8 million for Internet access and other
expenses critical to its trading operation.

Enron and at least 13 units declared bankruptcy yesterday, listing total assets of
$49.8 billion and debts of $31.2 billion.

Enron's trading business plummeted after the company in mid- October reported
a third-quarter loss of $1.01 billion, Bienenstock said. Before that, Enron's trading
book carried a value of $12 billion. Today, that has fallen to $6 billion to $7 billion,
he said.

``We do not today have every `i' dotted and every `t' crossed,'' in crafting a
reorganization strategy, Bienenstock said. More Enron businesses will file for
bankruptcy protection, he said, without providing details.

Enron's nosedive -- its shares have lost 99 percent of their value -- has also
placed a spotlight on Arthur Andersen LLP, the company's auditor. Enron said
last month it overstated its 1998 income by $113 million, part of $586 million that
the company cut from its profits since 1997. The Securities and Exchange
Commission is investigating.


The company had about 21,000 employees at the end of September, two-thirds
in the U.S., about a fifth in the U.K. and the rest in other parts of the world. It
fired 1,100 workers in the U.K. last week.

Workers streamed out of Enron's sleek glass office tower in downtown Houston
today, carrying boxes of personal possessions and saying their goodbyes.
Police officers on horseback helped direct traffic on nearby streets.

Employees said they were separated at the office into two groups. One was told
to leave and check Enron voice-mail for updates on their status. Others were told
they will be kept and were ordered to stay on the job.

``The worst thing was the ones they are going to keep were whisked away into a
room like they were having champagne and caviar, and we were getting booted,''
said Chris Ihrig, who traded steel and forest products. ``They always preached
respect, integrity, communications and excellence, and it never was upheld.''

Enron Chairman Kenneth Lay said he will try to keep workers who are key to
running trading operations, which used to provide 97 percent of Enron's revenue.

NetkingGermany In Worst Recession Since 1981#6633512/3/01; 19:59:30

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany is suffering its most severe recession in 20 years, the president of the Ifo economic institute, Hans-Werner Sinn, has said.

"We are now in a recession which - probably - is as sharp as the one in 1981," Sinn told reporters, referring to the downturn Germany suffered during the second oil crisis in 1981.

Sinn said the closely-watched Ifo business climate index had in the last two months fallen as sharply as it did in 1973. Sinn called on the German government to bring forward planned tax cuts and launch a state programme to boost investment. The German government has so far refused to do either.

R PowellSilver#6633612/3/01; 20:01:21

is trading up five cents to $4.23 right now in Sydney and Hong Kong. Perhaps Chicken man's $390. will be a winner. If silver moves up a few dollars, gold will be afraid to stay behind.
Play nicely now Silver. Let your buddy Gold climb with you.
I just received this months "Futures" magazine and noticed another article by James Cormier-Chisholm called "Silver: Tarnished no more". If it's got anything newsworthy, I'll report tomorrow as it's late here and I have to get up before the sun does in the morning.
Say good night Rich...

goldquestEnron Bailout!#6633712/3/01; 20:18:03

It was bound to happen. With Robert Rubin and Gerald Ford on the board of directors with Citicorp, how could they miss. There is also some heavy hitters on the board of directors for JPM. Oil types.
The Invisible Hand$$$$$3,257.50$$$$$#6633812/3/01; 20:30:25

Come on. What about an attack on the Golden Gate?
WaveriderInvisible Hand#6633912/3/01; 20:49:24

Invisible Hand...does that make you an optimist or a pessimist...or just a realist? Smile...
Gandalf the WhiteReplace the name "Rerngchai Marakanond" with "Alan Greenspan"#6634012/3/01; 20:50:17

Bangkok Post (12/4/01)
"CRASH OF '97"
Baht swaps blamed for forex losses
Charges to be laid against Rerngchai
by Staff Writer: Parista Yuthamanop Wichit Sirithaveeporn
(try and say that name four times rapidly !)

Swap transactions taken by the Bank of Thailand during the 1997 defence of the baht had caused net losses for the country's foreign reserves, M.R. Pridiyathorn Devakula, central bank governor, announced yesterday.

The ruling clears the way for formal legal charges to be taken against Rerngchai Marakanond, who served as central bank governor from July 1996 to July 1997.

The central bank last Friday ruled that Mr Rerngchai had been severely negligent in his duties relating to the baht defence. Under state laws, officials causing damage to the state can be held personally liable.

M.R. Pridiyathorn said the extent of the losses would be finalised today and then forwarded to prosecutors for formal charges to be filed later this week.

The plaintiff in the case would be both the central bank and the Exchange Equalisation Fund.

Finance Minister Somkid Jatusripitak yesterday said that the government would not intervene in the case on whether to press charges.

If Mr Rerngchai had evidence or documentation to present in his defence, he could do so within the court system, he said.

M.R. Pridiyathorn said over 2,000 transactions related to the baht defence and carried out from Nov 30, 1996, to Jun 30, 1997, were examined to assess total damages.

``Some of the transactions resulted in profits, some losses. But overall, there was a net loss for the reserves,'' he said.

Pointedly, he said the swap contracts would calculate damages at the time of their maturity.

The swaps, some of which carried terms as long as one year, allowed the central bank to intervene in the currency markets while maintaining reserve figures at artificially high levels.

The fixed exchange system had come under heavy stress in the first half of 1997, as declining market confidence, a weakening economy and cracks in the financial system led speculators and investors to abandon the baht.

But the attacks took their toll, and the central bank eventually was forced to float the baht in July 1997 after reserves were exhausted after more than US$24 billion in swaps were taken out. The following month, in August, the government was forced to accept a $17.2-billion standby credit programme from the International Monetary Fund.

Even so, the baht continued to fall throughout late 1997 and early 1998, reaching a low at nearly 58 to the US dollar.

The Chuan Leekpai government, which came to power in late 1997, established several investigative panels to study the actions taken by the central bank regarding the baht defence and assistance given to ailing banks and finance companies.

Pichet Phanvichartkul, a deputy finance minister in the Chuan cabinet, said findings of several of the committees had changed after M.R. Pridiyathorn became central bank governor.

Mr Pichet appointed a 10-member panel chaired by Pramuk Sawasdi-mongkol to investigate potential legal violations made by central bank executives during the crisis in late 1999.

He said the full findings had been already forwarded to the central bank and prosecutors earlier this year.

But the central bank had failed to press any criminal charges, or impose disciplinary action as recommended by the committee, Mr Pichet said.

He said findings of gross negligence by a committee assessing potential civil damages had also been diluted in many cases, and pointedly noted that several of the executives singled out by the report were now economic advisers to the Thaksin Shinawatra government.

Among the officials cleared last week by the central bank for civil violations were former governors Vijit Supinit and Chaiyawat Wibulswasdi, both serving now as government advisers.

Mr Pichet said the Democrat party would monitor the final results of the investigation and the actions taken by the government.

Senate leaders also said they would ask the central bank to clarify its findings in the case.

Suchon Chaleekrua, chairman of the Senate banking and finance panel, said yesterday he would ask the finance minister, the central bank governor and the Comptroller-General to testify about the case on Friday.
Too bad THIS law in Thailand can not be used in the USA !

WaveriderFrom your Northern Neighbors...Enron Canada solvent - heads to court#6634112/3/01; 20:54:59


Enron Canada Corp.'s attempt to escape the fate of its parent will be put to the test in an Alberta court tomorrow when it faces clients over its bid to force them to uphold their contracts.

The company, the Canadian gas and electricity trading unit of beleaguered Enron Corp., was hit with a slew of contract suspensions and cancellations as a result of its parent's credit downgrade last week and filing for bankruptcy protection on the weekend. Enron provided the credit guarantees for Enron Canada.

But Enron Canada, which wasn't included in the bankruptcy filing, is solvent and can continue to operate if the court grants an injunction preventing contract cancellations, company chief executive Robson Milnthorp said in an affidavit filed Friday.

"Enron Canada is solvent and able to pay its obligations as they become due provided that those who transact with Enron Canada continue to perform their obligations," the affidavit read. It described the Canadian business climate in regards to Enron as one of "market hysteria."

Among Enron Canada's counterparties, including oil and gas producers, utilities and power producers, the company's actions were greeted with reserve or skepticism.

Mr. Feuchuk said PrimeWest has already entered into new contracts for the gas that had been covered by the Enron Canada contracts.

At senior producer Talisman Energy Inc., which suspended contracts with Enron Canada last week, spokesman David Mann said the company will be opposing Enron Canada's request on Wednesday..."

Cavan ManDear Argentinians:#6634212/3/01; 20:55:23

Forthwith are three reasons why you are being restrained from withdrawing more of your money from the banking system in your country:

1. There is likely only 2-3% of actual currency available as a percentage of total deposits for physical withdrawal.

2. The currency cannot be printed fast enough.

3. Money as we have all known it for the last thirty years is only a concept.

Comprendez amigos? Get Gold.....CM

auricCONTEST#6634312/3/01; 20:58:09

$$$$$266.50$$$$$ The worse things get, the more they'll stomp the price down.
NetkingArgentina measures explained #6634412/3/01; 21:02:34

An "insiders view" per Buenos Aires Herald:

Banking restrictions decreed by President Fernando de la Rúa on Saturday come into effect today. The President and Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo said on national television last night the measures were taken to fight "an enormous speculative attack" against Argentina.

Earlier in the day politicians from all sides of the spectrum had lashed out at the government's measures. These were designed to stop a bank run which on Friday seemed to be leading to financial collapse. "We have come out to defend ourselves," said De la Rúa in a three-minute TV address. "National unity is today more important than ever." Cavallo spoke for over 20 minutes right after the President and explained the details of the cash flow restrictions. The measures include a 250-peso or dollar cap on the funds account holders can withdraw in cash every week. "I apologize because I know many of you became scared by the measures. But we are doing this to defend your savings. Those financial vultures that destroyed Russia and Ecuador are not going to beat us," said Cavallo . . . ."

WaveriderOil drop spurs call for ruble depreciation#6634512/3/01; 21:15:44


Falling world oil prices are threatening the profitability of Russian oil firms that provide much of the country's hard currency earnings and are leading to calls for a policy of ruble depreciation.

Proponents insist it would benefit not only domestic oil firms by reducing production costs but all industry as it claws its way back from a decade-long slump.

But critics warn that even a controlled depreciation could bring about a fresh surge in inflation, historically one of the country's biggest economic problems, and destabilize its currency market, reducing the benefits from oil exports. Russia is the world's second-biggest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia.

"Oil companies don't need it. With oil prices where they are right now, these companies are still very profitable," said Roland Nash, chief economist at Renaissance Capital. "If prices fall to $12 per barrel, it might be an idea. Now, a ruble devaluation would do more harm than good."

Benchmark Brent crude climbed toward $19 a barrel in London on Monday.

The ruble's official rate is set daily by the Central Bank. Usually, the rate is based on the results of a special trading session in the foreign exchange market that is controlled by the Central Bank and into which exporters must sell 50 percent of their hard currency earnings.

While the Central Bank has been allowing the currency to ease versus the dollar, it has only allowed it to slip at a rate slower than that of domestic inflation. At first that policy, adopted in the months after the August 1998 financial crisis, sparked worries that manufacturers would lose competitiveness and that the economy would be harmed.

But oil prices rose to over $30 at the end of 2000 and in early 2001, setting the economy growing at a tempo unseen in the last decade. Oil firms are still continuing to export at maximum capacity, bringing billions of dollars back home to fill tax coffers and allow the Central Bank to stockpile record reserves.

But falling oil prices have led to calls in some quarters for a ruble depreciation that would cut domestic production costs and improve profit margins.

"That is confidential information, but it is known to me," said Nikolai Gonchar, a member of the influential budget committee in the State Duma..."

redloccontest#6634612/3/01; 21:20:33

Carl HInflation#6634712/3/01; 21:31:30

My wife and I use a national group health insurance program through a professional organization that we are members of. We just got a rate increase notice of 19.4%! This is on top of about a 10% increase about 8 months ago! The increased rate is only gauranteed through 2002.

I guess someone has noticed that Greenspan & Co. are working overtime on the presses.

WaveriderSA Gold and Rand (Att: Gandalf the White)#6634812/3/01; 21:34:10

JOHANNESBURG – The spectacular crash of the South African rand has helped the Johannesburg gold board to register almost a hundred percent growth this year. Far from calling an end to the twelve-month bull run, analysts are expecting shares to run still further as ever-increasing local currency margins filter through to the bottom line.

The run in gold shares, despite a dollar gold price that remains monotonously trapped below $290/oz, suggests that the view that the dollar-gold price drives the Johannesburg market is carrying less water. Since the beginning of December last year, the dollar price has averaged at an uninspiring $270.80/oz, peaking briefly at $293.25 and reaching a more protracted low around the $255.95 level.

Conversely, though, the rand-gold price has gone ballistic. At the beginning of December last year, bullion was at R66,720/kg, with the rand at R7.58 to the dollar. Today, South African producers are reaping the benefits of a R91,880/kg gold price, with the rand hovering tentatively around R10.43 to the dollar..." and more, including graphs.

Black BladeCarl H - Insurance#6634912/3/01; 22:04:07

I had group health insurance (Blue Cross Anthem) and I too noticed that the premiums would rise almost on a monthly basis, or so it seemed. I dumped that turkey. Since I am self-employed I was fortunate enough to qualify for a Medical Savings Account (MSA) through a professional association. I have a high deductible so that premiums are low and the cash I put into the MSA account is tax deductible and earnings are tax deferred like an IRA.

- Black Blade

Rx Gold$$$contest$$$$#6635012/3/01; 22:20:41

Gandalf the WhiteUPDATE ------GC1Z Price Guessing Contest #6635112/3/01; 22:32:38

Progress Report as of 12/3/01 22:22MT
MK says: HEAR YE! HEAR YE!! --we will have a price guessing contest. Where gold will close on Friday, December 7th on the Comex. Each entry must be surrounded by dollar signs as follows $$$$$30,000$$$$$. The winner will receive a one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic. Let's make the guesses in 50¢ increments. All entries must be posted by 5pm MST Tuesday, December 4th.
$$$3,257.50$$$$$ The Invisible Hand (12/3/01; 20:30:25MT
$$$$$390.00$$$$$ Chicken man (12/1/01; 19:16:27MT

$$$$$350.00$$$$$ sourdough (12/1/01; 09:28:15MT

$$$$$331.00$$$$$ LimitUp (12/2/01; 21:33:35MT

$$$$$320.00$$$$$ Scarab (12/1/01; 15:30:22MT

$$$$$302.50$$$$$ Gene (12/2/01; 18:22:33MT

$$$$$300.50***** Goldfinger 2 (12/3/01; 08:12:43MT
$$$$$300.00$$$$$ Max Rabbitz (11/30/01; 20:07:20MT

$$$$$297.50$$$$$ Netking (12/2/01; 01:53:34MT

$$$$$296.50$$$$$ tedw (11/30/01; 19:50:42MT
$$$$$296.00$$$$$ THX-1138 (12/1/01; 00:31:32MT

$$$$$294.00$$$$$ Neubie (12/3/01; 14:22:02MT

$$$$$292.50$$$$$ darkhorse (11/30/01; 18:48:35MT

$$$$$290.00$$$$$ ji (12/2/01; 16:36:24MT
$$$$$289.50$$$$$ goldquest (11/30/01; 23:12:21MT

$$$$$288.50$$$$$ slingshot (12/1/01; 13:02:04MT

$$$$$287.75$$$$$ Hydro (11/30/01; 20:53:23MT

$$$$$286.50$$$$$ ROSEBUD99 (12/2/01; 21:21:03MT
$$$$$286.00$$$$$ balzac (12/3/01; 14:43:03MT

$$$$$285.00$$$$$ Quixote (12/2/01; 15:04:57MT
$$$$284.50$$$$$$ Rx Gold (12/3/01; 22:20:41MT
$$$$$284.00$$$$$ redloc (12/3/01; 21:20:33MT
$$$$$283.50$$$$$ Lamprey (12/03/01; 09:52:17MT
$$$$$283.00$$$$$ goldroadlx7 (12/03/01; 15:27:45MT
$$$$$282.50$$$$$ uponroof (11/30/01; 20:57:34MT
$$$$$282.00$$$$$ Maiden Fan (12/2/01; 11:13:21MT
$$$$$281.50$$$$$ Buena Fe (12/1/01; 20:51:51MT
$$$$$281.00$$$$$ VanRip (11/30/01; 21:05:14MT
$$$$$280.50$$$$$ Solomon Weaver (11/30/01; 23:03:28MT
$$$$$280.00$$$$$ Yellow Jacket (12/2/01; 10:51:56MT
$$$$$279.50$$$$$ The CoinGuy (11/29/01; 21:48:53MT
$$$$$279.00$$$$$ Shermag (12/1/01; 13:30:47MT
$$$$$278.50$$$$$ Broken Tee (11/30/01; 10:52:21MT
$$$$$278.00$$$$$ Artie Farkle (12/1/01; 11:04:03MT
$$$$$278.00$$$$$ RobotGuy (12/1/01; 13:31:55MT
$$$$$277.50$$$$$ Gandalf the White (11/29/01; 20:17:49MT
$$$$$277.00$$$$$ Waverider (11/30/01; 01:23:24MT
$$$$$276.60$$$$$ wiley (11/29/01; 22:47:01MT
$$$$$276.50$$$$$ goldenpeace (11/30/01; 04:45:06MT
$$$$$276.00$$$$$ cwa (11/29/01; 21:29:00MT
$$$$$275.50$$$$$ Ducat (12/01/01; 07:48:39MT
$$$$$275.00$$$$$ Gimli_ (11/29/01; 22:00:38MT
$$$$$274.50$$$$$ Black Blade (11/29/01; 21:54:25MT
$$$$$274.00$$$$$ mikal (11/30/01; 22:54:23MT
$$$$$273.50$$$$$ Christian (11/30/01; 06:41:42MT
$$$$$273.00$$$$$ Canuck (12/01/01; 09:00:56MT
$$$$$272.50$$$$$ Mythical (11/30/01; 18:08:12MT
$$$$$272.00$$$$$ Henri (11/30/01; 11:44:46MT
$$$$$271.50$$$$$ Argent (12/1/01; 10:16:21MT
$$$$$271.00$$$$$ Goldfly (12/2/01; 12:07:06MT
$$$$$270.50$$$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (12/2/01; 17:14:24MT
$$$$$270.00$$$$$ Flatlander (12/1/01; 18:32:56MT
$$$$$269.50$$$$$ Frosty (12/2/01; 17:28:43MT
$$$$$269.00$$$$$ megatron (12/2/01; 14:50:46MT
$$$$$268.50$$$$$ HopeingII (12/1/01; 22:37:42MT
$$$$$268.00$$$$$ BR549 (12/2/01; 18:13:47MT

$$$$$266.50$$$$$ auric (12/3/01; 20:58:09MT

$$$$$263.80$$$$$ WW Oracle (12/2/01; 20:19:51MT
Go HIGH or Go low, BUT GO !!! Less than 19 hours to give USAGOLD Forum your "GUESS"

nugget101******** $276.10 *********#6635212/3/01; 22:42:32

Gold moving slightly down.
Gandalf the Whitenugget 101#6635312/3/01; 23:24:12

nugget101 (12/3/01; 22:42:32MT - msg#: 66352)
******** $276.10 *********
Gold moving slightly down.
Sir Nugget101 --- IF the above is a CONTEST entry --
Please read the post #66351 (directly below your post)
THEN if you wish to enter the contest, please REDO your guess. Thanks

The Invisible HandWaverider#6635412/3/01; 23:32:46

Call me an opportunist, a wishful thinker or somebody who would like gold urgently to skyrocket.
coco$$$$$291.00$$$$$#6635512/3/01; 23:43:10

I'm an optimist

Solomon WeaverBottom? What Bottom?#6635612/3/01; 23:57:41

A somewhat humourful view of much we already know about the SM.....

"With the stock market up substantially from September's three year low, Wall Street pundits and analysts and the popular media are once again beating the drum for "the bottom". It seems this bear market has seen more bottoms than a box of Pampers. Unfortunately for the handful of naive investors who haven't yet realized that the so-called experts don't know bottoms from holes in the ground, every one of these "market bottoms" has proven to be false.

"But this is THE bottom," the experts tell us. "And this time, we really mean it." .........

It would be quite a feat for a record-breaking expansion to be followed by one of the mildest recessions on record. It would be much like throwing a basketball fifty feet into the air and then watching it fall ten feet toward earth, stop, and then head higher once again, defying all laws of physics. ......."

. . .

Poor old Solomon

Solomon WeaverAnecdote#6635712/4/01; 00:04:31

Was out at the new Flatirons Crossing Mall near Denver last night, a beautiful example of the shopping pomp of the 90s (where a real estate agent this summer told me the houses near the Mall just had to go up in value because Malls always drive home values up). My wife is looking for childrens snow boots and the clerk at the nice kiddie-shoe-Laden told me upon my query that "sales" this year were about 50% of last years...granted, the Mall had just opened and so people we actually going out of there way to get there to shop.

Oh, and by the way....this year, the huge new Movie Theatre complex is actually finished, so one would think that traffic should be a little higher as people plan a movie and a shopping event.....


Black BladeNewmont seeks block on Normandy fees#6635812/4/01; 00:29:01


SYDNEY, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Newmont Mining Ltd applied on Tuesday for a restraining order delaying rival AngloGold Ltd from paying higher fees to brokers who rope in acceptances for its offer to acquire Normandy Mining Ltd (Australia:NDY.AX). Nigel Morris, director of the Australian Takeovers panel, which has jurisdiction in the matter, said the government agency would rule on the application ``late Wednesday at the earliest''. Johannesburg-based AngloGold said it had agreed not make any payments to brokers until the matter was resolved.

Black Blade: Now Newmont put forward a legal challenge - delaying action. Share prices of NEM and AU could adjust so the bids over the next few days are probably roughly equal. It also give NEM time to counter with a higher bid. This is getting to be an "interesting" soap opera. Also add in the $40 million break up fee on AngloGold's end and the bids are pretty much a wash.

TEX$$$$$$261.00$$$$$$#6635912/4/01; 00:34:52

Hey, I'll just bring up the rear for the time being!
Black BladeNormandy up on talk of a third bidder#6636012/4/01; 00:39:07


SYDNEY, Dec 4 (Reuters) - Normandy Mining Ltd (Australia:NDY.AX) shares touched a three-and-a-half year high on Tuesday on the possibility of a third bidder joining the fight for the Australian gold miner. No new names have come forward, although Canada's Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE:ABX) has been mentioned by analysts as a competitor with enough clout to potentially outshoot both Newmont and AngloGold for Normandy. ``You can't rule out a company like Barrick, but you need to ask, if they are serious, why wait until now,'' said a mining analyst. But others have suggested that AngloGold may have reached its bidding limit and may be unwilling to continue a bidding war.

Black Blade: Maybe it's ABX to the rescue in order to keep Normandy in Hedge Fund hands. It would not be surprising. ABX and AU are both desperate and in the same difficult situation as they need more "cheap" ounces to deliver into the hedge books (eating their young?). If successful, they will of course gut the heart out of Normandy's deposits.

NetkingGold hedging continues to decline#6636212/4/01; 00:59:09

Comment: The days of the "hedge hog" is going fast. The current moves within the industry show a pronounced scramble to unwind the perceived contingent liability that a large hedged position in a rising gold market is to the producer. - Netking


GOLD hedging by Australian producers continues to decline, according to JPMorgan's September Quarter hedging review released today.

The review showed hedging in the three month period totalled 36.5 million ounces at A$591 per ounce, down 1.4 million ounces or 3.7 per cent on the June quarter figure of 37.9 million ounces at A$627 per ounce.

Thirteen companies reduced their ounces hedged by a combined total of 1.8 million ounces while five companies added 500,000 ounces. Lihir increased its book by 133,000 ounces and Normandy NFM and Hill 50 by about 90,000 ounces.

The biggest decrease for the quarter was Normandy Mining which was down 182,000 ounces to 9.59 million ounces; Newcrest 153,000 ounces to 6.57 million ounces and Sons of Gwalia 75,000 ounces to 3.35 million ounces.

According to the review, hedging now covers 43 per cent of Australian gold reserves, down from 46 per cent in the June quarter. . . . "

Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLDWhether your thoughts linger on Argentina or Enron, try your hand at common sense investing for uncommon times#6636312/4/01; 01:19:27

"'Good as gold' speaks only of yellow metal:
a Truth lost as often as money
by players in leverage, credit banking systems, and Ponzi schemes."

-- R. Strauss

NetkingBarrick tipped for a late run on Normandy #6636412/4/01; 01:19:46

I suspect there will be some surprises at the end of the day, things are not always what they seem, and this game os far from over. - Netking

Expectations grew yesterday that the world's most powerful gold company, Canada's Barrick Gold, was about to blow away competing bids by AngloGold and Newmont for Normandy Mining. . . .

Normandy is Australia's biggest gold producer and, as a unit, has the ability to make either Barrick, Newmont or AngloGold the world's biggest gold producer. . . .

But the stakes involved suggest that even if it is all over for AngloGold and Newmont, Barrick has at least one shot to fire, ensuring in the process that it becomes the world's dominant gold producer instead of an enlarged AngloGold-Normandy or Newmont-Normandy.

Big is by no means best in the gold business but the major players nevertheless hate being second best on basic measures. Because of its superior financial performance, thanks to astute hedging, Barrick could out-shoot Newmont in any (cash) bidding for Normandy. AngloGold is considered a worthy competitor but without the North American valuation multiples of Barrick, it would start well behind."

Hard assets...Easy accessCentennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLD#6636512/4/01; 01:24:46

ATTENTION Holiday Shoppers!
"We invite you to browse our jewelry section. The Termine & Winer Classic Collection of 18-karat designer crafted jewelry was suggested to us by the World Gold Council. It is of very high quality, sure to please and the prices are right. I know most male shoppers like to put things off to the last minute but given the price breaks and lack of sales taxes that come with buying from us on-line, it might pay to get this done as soon as possible. If you wait too long we may not be able to get you the order on time. Just call and talk to Marie or order right at the page on-line. Your order will come by Fed-Ex -- a done deal. Your selection comes in a very nice black velvet box with a very classy card that goes with it. We really went out of our way this year to offer something we think your loved ones will appreciate." --MK

LeighBush to Announce New Anti-Terrorism Financial Moves#6636612/4/01; 02:40:28

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Bush on Tuesday will announce new steps in the U.S.-led effort to shut down financial support for international terrorism, a senior administration official said.

The offical on Monday declined to characterize the measures. The White House said Bush would deliver a statement on "the financial aspects of terrorism" at 11 a.m., before leaving on a day trip to Florida.

As part of its campaign against global terrorism, the United States and its allies have already taken several steps to disrupt the financing of suspected terrorist groups.

Since the Sept. 11 attacks that triggered the anti-terrorism war, the United States has tightened laws to control money laundering, ordered a freeze on assets of suspected individuals and organizations and closed money-transfer businesses suspected of aiding targeted groups.

Achilles(No Subject)#6636712/04/01; 04:28:10

alia iacta est

WAC (Wide Awake Club)The Bone Pile - Savage stuff - BT axing 13,000 jobs#6636812/4/01; 05:40:44

LONDON (Reuters) - British fixed-line telecoms giant BT is cutting 13,000 jobs at its retail division.

The job cuts, announced on Tuesday, are part of moves announced earlier to cut 850 million pounds costs over three years.

In its earlier statement, BT Group Plc detailed targets for its fixed-line voice call division and unveiled a new off-peak calls package to tempt retail customers as competition hots up.

BT said it was aiming for three percent compound annual growth in revenue for the four years to 2004/05 for BT Retail

BelgianCrude Oil, the dollar-valuator.#6636912/4/01; 05:44:52

The most important coalition-partner in the evolving Middle East drama is Russia. Russian oil barrons and the Russian state of affairs, do smell a gigantic opportunity, in the present re-balancing of forces and interests of the West versus M.E.

Al Qaida has the oil-element in his program, somewhere down the road. 1,2 billion moslims/islamists will unite in their anger against, what they call a western conspiracy against islam. For instance, the 2 billion dollars per year, that are used to buy friendship and peace from Egypt, will become insufficient. The same strategy of peace for dollars will be applied to Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Friendship with Russia (second largest oil supplier) will prove to be a very, very surprising gamble. Because most of the revenues from resource-plundering goes to an extreme small group of looters. A highly un-reliable partnership, from all points of vieuw.

Are there Palestinian factions part of the Al Qaida program
for resurrection of islam ? At what stage of the ME-turmoil, will oil supply be cut off ? And is it possible to stop escalation at that particular critical POO-point ?

ME-turmoil has already 50 years of age, since the erection of the state of Israel in 1949.

In other words, the POO has already been managed, by the demander and not the suppliers, for 50 years.
For this reason, I suspect that a sudden explosion in POO (not supply/demand related) will signal in who's favor the anti-terror campaign is evolving. A very good reason for not postponing the further accumulation of Physical and realising that a 600$ target POG is a high underestimation.

World opinion is unmoved on the Afghanistan events, due to absolute lack of images. Is the Palestinian cause, compensating for this ? I am afraid that Al Qaida is much more than simply some fanatical radicalism !?
It is an anti Anglo-Saxon, rapidly swelling mood/strategy.
Intrinsicaly more dangerous than terror on itself. it is a make or break plan wich will affect the dollar through oil with consequences for Gold !? And will the euro be the unwanted benefittor ?

nickel62Two Articles that make interesting reading together...Fiat currency to be recycled and Argentina bankrupted with Fiat currency(see next)#6637012/4/01; 06:51:01

350,000 tonnes of coins heading for the crusher
By Bettina Wassener in Frankfurt
Published: December 3 2001 18:31 | Last Updated: December 3 2001 18:37

When the 12 countries of the eurozone start to trade in their old notes and coins for euros on January 1, the machine they call "the Decoiner" will be ready.

Across the eurozone, 350,000 tons of legacy coins need to be rounded up, stored and ultimately melted down so their metal can be recycled.

A large chunk of this cash is in the form of higher denomination coins, and is valuable enough to require guarding against theft. EuroCoin, a coin minting company based in the German town of Schwerte, estimates that secure transport of such coins would cost six to eight times as much as simple transport of scrap metal by truck.

Enter the Decoiner. Looking appropriately rather like a rubbish skip, the decoiner squashes higher denomination coins and renders them worthless to thieves, allowing them to be transported and stored more cheaply until the scrap metal is melted down for use elsewhere.

EuroCoin's dozen or so machines, which can be shipped to central banks' coin storage sites, swallow up to five tons of money an hour, spitting them out at the other end as deeply grooved and bent versions of their former selves.

EuroCoin will be in charge of devaluing coins in Germany, Austria, Italy, and is the dominant player in the field. It also hopes to obtain contracts from Ireland and Finland soon.

In Germany alone 5bn higher-denomination "silver" coins (50 pfennig, 1, 2, and 5 DM) weighing 35,300 tons will be collected. There have been small-scale trial runs in the country, but the coin-mangling operation only really gets into full swing in January, when the parallel task of euro distribution is out of the way.

Apart from being the nemesis of D-mark, schilling and lire coins, EuroCoin is also the single biggest producer of the "coin blanks" that make up the new euro coins. The company has contracts with 11 of the 12 eurozone nations to produce 25bn such raw metal discs, which individual central banks later mint into the finished, detailed coins that will end up in 300m eurozone citizens' pockets from January 1.

The metal from the German "silver" coins, for example, is suited for re-use in the production of elements of the "bicoloured" E1 and E2 euro coins, which are composed of a core disc encircled by a ring of different metal.

EuroCoin will therefore bid to buy the legacy coin metal from the relevant national authorities for euro production. Once the bulk of that job is done, the metal can also be used in the production of other currencies, such as Thai baht or Malaysian ringgit, it says.

"Some 12m coin blanks are produced daily at our main production site in Schwerte alone," says Katja Vogt, EuroCoin's spokesperson. "One in two euro coins will originate with us."

The production of coins (euros and other currencies) - rather than coin crushing - is in fact the company's main source of revenue. EuroCoin's sales have risen to around DM500m a year, the bulk of which stems from euro-related contracts (production as well as "decoining"). However, Daniel Sheffer, member of the board at EuroCoin, expects the single currency to keep generating business for the company for years to come beyond E-day. "For the immediate changeover, about 160-170 coins have been produced per eurozone inhabitant. This is well below the roughly 250 D-mark and pfennig coins per head we currently have in Germany, indicating that the initial supply of euro coins right now is at the lower end of what is likely to be needed in the longer term," he says. "There will also be added demand for euro coins and notes as EU enlargement progresses."

nickel62The second article Argentina on the brink of paper collapse!#6637112/4/01; 06:52:06

Argentines ponder life with empty wallets
By Thomas Catán in Buenos Aires
Published: December 3 2001 20:11 | Last Updated: December 4 2001 02:20

Confused Argentines were struggling on Monday to work out how the government's new banking and exchange restrictions would affect their daily lives.

Bank account-holders are now limited to withdrawing $250 a week in cash. Any amount above that must be spent by cheque, credit card or debit card. In addition, Argentines may take no more than $1,000 in cash abroad. Companies must obtain official clearance to make foreign payments above that amount.

The draconian measures were announced at the weekend after a run on deposits threatened the banking system.

On Monday, Argentines faced a vast range of questions. Many wondered how payments could be made to workers operating in Argentina's vast black economy - including maids, taxi-drivers, restaurant staff, psychoanalysts, plumbers and even prostitutes. Few have the ability to take credit or debit cards but fear that clients will be loath to part with their newly limited cash.

Domingo Cavallo, the economy minister, said all such people would now have to set up bank accounts and become part of the formal economy. The government will offer an amnesty for any companies declaring workers that had previously been paid "under the table".

Small businesses - few of which have the ability to accept electronic payments - also suffered on Monday as customers sought out others that did. The government said that the machines needed to carry out debit and credit card payments would be made available en masse and their cost would be tax-deductible.

Others wondered how they would take holidays abroad - the southern hemisphere summer is here and many Argentines go abroad for Christmas and New Year. This year, however, they will be able to take only $1,000 in cash and, even abroad, they will not be able to exceed the limits on withdrawals from cash dispensing machines.

On Monday, many travel agents remained closed as the owners met to figure out how to operate.

President Fernando de la Rúa on Monday tried to reassure people that the temporary restrictions, which are slated to last 90 days, would not affect the value of their savings. "Everyone's savings are secure," he insisted. "The measures were taken for that very reason."

For many Argentines, however, the measures bring back bitter memories of the "Plan Bonex" 11 years ago, under which fixed-term deposits were confiscated by the government and turned into 10-year bonds. The bonds quickly dropped to 30 cents on the dollar in the secondary market, wiping out the savings of many Argentines.

The latest measures also raised the spectre of a return to the financial madness that beset the country in the late 1980s, when inflation reached 5,000 per cent. Such inflation rates were tamed in 1991 by introducing a currency board, which backed every peso in circulation by a dollar in reserve. Under a "convertibility" law, introduced by Mr Cavallo during a previous stint as economy minister, the banks must change a peso for a dollar on demand, guaranteeing the 1-to-1 exchange rate.

However, the new restrictions call into question whether the currency system has been adulterated. Some economists predict a chaotic situation in which several parallel currency markets spring up in the informal economy, much as they did in the 1980s.

Filomena, the owner of a downtown Buenos Aires newspaper kiosk, said some custo mers had paid for their newspapers and magazines by cheque. Still others had inquired whether they could pay by debit card. She did not know if she would buy the debit machine.

One other thing she noticed; she had not sold a single copy of Ole, a sporting paper, all morning, even though a big football match was played on Sunday. But she had sold out of Ambito Financiero - a financial tabloid that made its name in the 1980s predicting the next currency devaluation.

da2gLeigh: New Anti-Terrorism Financial moves#6637212/4/01; 07:22:40

Call me cynical, but I wonder how many of these moves are a prelude to defense of the dollar. In other words, could this be the groundwork for exchange and currency controls? Perhaps this anti-terror campaign is fortuitously providing cover for anticipated moves?
uponroofGeorge Will and the Economy.....Good-Bad News#6637312/4/01; 07:22:47

Mr Will offers his take on the economic news we all must filter through.

"...Law One: All news is economic news. Law Two: All economic news is bad news.

Terrorists attack. U.S. forces advance. Katie Couric is in love. Or not. All this is economic news? Indeed. Consumer spending is three-quarters of all economic activity, so anything that affects their sense of well-being is economic news..."


"...Just eight days after the terrorist attacks, General Motors launched zero percent financing. Other automakers followed, more vehicles were sold in October than in any month ever, and 2001 may be the second- or third-best sales year in Detroit's history. How can this be bad news? Here is how.

The financing effectively meant a 4.7 percent drop in the prices manufacturers were charging for cars, so profit margins are now minuscule. Furthermore, what an analyst calls "profitless prosperity" is cannibalizing future sales, which probably will plummet when normal financing resumes. See? Record sales can be seen as depressing news..."

OK George, Beauty always was in the eye of the beholder. But when did the gummint stimulus package come to include 'corrective' laser eye surgery? Gold is the tail that wags major economic indicators, which in turn influences global economic conditions. Contestants in this beauty contest are sleeping with the judges. Gold is a judge with a gun at it's head.

Black BladeUS Treasury--O'Neill replacement reports 'nonsense'#6637412/4/01; 08:19:13


WASHINGTON, Dec 4 (Reuters) - A senior U.S. Treasury Department official on Tuesday dismissed as unfounded a report in the New York Post newspaper that the Bush administration wanted to replace Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill.

Black Blade: Funny how "nonsense" sometimes turns out to be what happens down the road. The strong dollar policy has hurt many US multinationals. Now the deepening recession could also be cause for O'Nell to be concerned about his job. Repeat after me - "do you want fries with that?"

Leighda2g#6637512/4/01; 08:52:13

Thanks for noticing this article! I have an ominous feeling that somehow precious metals will be mentioned in this anti-terrorism package. I guess we'll find out in ten minutes.
EconoclastWithdrawal#6637612/4/01; 09:34:29

I had a dream that I saw those words;
"The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated"
Oh well.
Have a golden day.

LeighEconoclast#6637712/4/01; 09:53:51

Econoclast, I imagine Trail Guide is out there wishing he could communicate with us. But he knows from sad experience that anything he says is sure to be misunderstood. It breaks my heart that this good man is having to walk the Trail in silence (and the rest of us are forced to do without his wise and kindly words) because a few fellow hikers can't resist throwing rocks.
WAC (Wide Awake Club)@Lady Leigh - Trail Guide#6637812/4/01; 10:02:01

Perhaps Trail Guide might be well advised to secure some good quality hiking boots, just in case he trips over some rocks. Also, a really good crash helmet just for protection from those falling rocks. This will assist in maintaining positional integrity on the trail.
Novice BearContest#6637912/4/01; 10:02:05


Probably too high, but thought I'd give it a try.

Thanks for the forum.

--Novice Bear

NetkingNewmont objects to Anglo's slings to brokers #6638012/4/01; 10:14:57

Newmont has called on the Takeovers Panel to ban AngloGold from increasing its reward to brokers who round up acceptances to its $3.6 billion bid for Australia's biggest gold producer, Normandy Mining. The panel said it had accepted an undertaking from AngloGold that it would not make any payments under the reward system until the panel had considered the Newmont application for a ban, probably late today.

AngloGold proposed to increase the handling fee payable to brokers from 0.75 per cent to between 1 and 2.5 per cent depending on the size of the acceptances the brokers delivered. The only catch was the increased reward only applied until December 11. The move was seen as a pressure play, giving AngloGold's offer additional momentum against the competing offer from Newmont which will not be capable of acceptance by Normandy shareholders until well into next year.

AngloGold said that it "offered the fees to the Australian broking community in good faith and believes that they are equitable and fully comply with Australian law. . . . "

RobotGuyGold#6638112/4/01; 10:28:06

Gold can be created by atomic action on Platinum, but it is an extreemly expensive process for obvious reasons. Paper money can be counterfeited quite easily and often is. Gold that has not been brought to the surface must undergo quite a process before it can be held and cherished for it's rarity. "Digital" money can quite easily be mis-allocated. Gold has many purposes and has been valued throughout history for it's rarity and splendour. The digital/paper "honour" system has only been around for a few years respectively. All of these observations may be made by any individual, but if you study the pure simplicity of reasons for owning Gold, you sharply realize that you must indeed have some. Consider the population of this planet with respect to ownership of gold, is there enough for each of us to have some?

As Black Blade would say "Definitely interesting times."

NetkingNormandy Rises On Talk Barrick May Bid#6638212/4/01; 10:34:19

If Barrick moves, they may have THE punch to take Normandy otherwise the suggestion is a Barrick-Anglo partnership - Netking

Main points:
Shares in Australia's largest gold miner, Normandy Mining Ltd. (A.NDY), on Tuesday rose to their highest level since a takeover war first erupted, on talk that Canada's Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX) may be poised to join the fight. Normandy shares at one stage were as high as A$1.66 on speculation that Barrick plans to launch a bid pitched around A$1.80 a share and valuing Normandy at upwards of US$4 billion . . . .

Normandy is one of the last independent gold miners of significant size to be sought by the world's gold majors.
It is a particularly tempting target for Barrick given that Barrick's merger partner, Homestake Mining Co. (HM), is Normandy's equal partner in Australia's largest gold mine, the Super Pit in Western Australia.

Homestake shareholders are due to approve the US$2.3 billion merger with Barrick at a meeting on Dec. 14. AngloGold is currently the world's largest gold producer, but would be leapfrogged by either Newmont or Barrick if either secured Normandy. Mark Pervan, resources analyst with Daiwa Securities SMBC in Melbourne, said a bid from Barrick would "make a lot of sense."

He noted that Barrick probably has the balance sheet and cash generating power to trump either AngloGold or Newmont, while Normandy's closeness to Homestake means that it could generate greater cost savings from a marriage. Normandy shareholders also could be more attracted to a paper and cash offer from Barrick given that AngloGold is offering generally less attractive South African paper, and Newmont's bid is complicated by its related takeover of 19.9% Normandy holder Franco-Nevada Mining Corp. (T.FN) of Canada.

. . . Even if Barrick doesn't bid for Normandy, it is being tipped as the most logical partner for AngloGold should the South Africans lose out to Newmont.

uponroofWHOA! Enron up 20 cents!#6638312/4/01; 10:51:26


Is a bailout imminent!?

Is there a buyout in the works!?

No and no.

JPMChase just lent $1.5 billion to ENE to allow some time to maximize efficient liquidation of assets. Not out of the kindness of their hearts, but to help insure partial recovery of their 2 billion, which btw ENE filed as 'lost' a few days ago (this last $1.5 billion lent through bankruptcy court which insures recovery for JPMChase).

Will this story come out, or will the hypesters mislead the herd again insinuating that Enron is not yet dead, etc etc? DUH! Can you hear CNBC now? Watch the herd charge up this carcass's rectum another buck....then of course, lose it all again. Hope I'm wrong.

Humble PieGOLD GUESSING CONTEST#6638412/4/01; 11:29:15

The CoinGuyLeigh, Don't Underestimate FOA#6638512/4/01; 11:41:04

My father always said, "If there argument is weak, you'll know it when the insults start flying".

I've enjoyed the Trail, and unless I've underestimated the class and integrity of FOA, I'm just not willing to believe he "went to go to rest from his labors", because of any adversity from this site. I believe Sir Douglas is waiting for his position to evolve. Nothing proves ones position without time involved, and I believe it won't be long before we hear from him again. I, too enjoyed the handholding along the Trail, but my pages, well worn from study, still stand with positional integrity from my viewpoint. I say let those rocks(I'd prefer nuggets) fly if need be, in business, I've always dealt from a position of strength, I feel his analysis is no different.

Steven(The Coin Guy)

NetkingEurozone confidence slumps#6638612/4/01; 12:00:01

In a fresh blow to the economic prospects for the eurozone economies, consumer confidence in Europe slumped to a new four-year low. The business and consumer confidence index, compiled by the EU, fell to 98.8 in November, compared to 99.3 in October. . . .

Meanwhile, prospects are growing particularly gloomy in Germany, Europe's largest economy. Germany's finance minister, Hans Eichel, has said that German economic growth could be as low as 0.75% next year, compared to the 1.25% official forecast.

That could put pressure on Germany's budget deficit, which is likely to be near the limit set by the eurozone's growth and stability pact of 3%. The EU says Germany must put its budget in balance by 2004, but denies that it is planning any sanctions against Germany before it completes its new budget forecasts. . . ."

uponroofIncredible#6638712/4/01; 12:02:48

Dec. 4, 2001, 12:14PM

"With Lenders Lined Up, Enron Stock Surges"

HOO BOY! Wait till those other derivative shoes start dropping a la Emelda Marcos.

.....and yes, they are asking the man on the (CNBC) street if it's too early to buy Enron. Incredible.

Also very important today...President Bush freezes assets of Hamas (charities based in the US). Saying Hamas is a 'terrorist group'. This is not what the Islamic world wants to hear, who sees them as 'freedom fighters'. How will the arab world respond? The battlelines have been drawn and the energy market is in this picture.

Oh, let's not forget what Sadaam just said also (to paraphrase)...."If you attack me, I will attack Israel". Now what do you think he has in mind when he says 'attack'?

Meanwhile, of course, gold is down.

NetkingBrazilian airline suspends flights#6638812/4/01; 12:05:31

Transbrasil Airlines has suspended all its flights indefinitely after running out of money to pay for fuel supplies from Anglo-Dutch oil firm Shell. "The company has a problem with money...(it) hasn't money to pay for fuel," a Transbrasil spokesman told BBC News Online.

Transbrasil president Celso Cirpriani is in talks with Shell, the airline's only fuel supplier, to find a way to get its fleet flying again. "The door remains open, we're talking to them," said a spokesman for Shell in London.

Transbrasil, which owes $350m, has been forced to pay cash in advance for its fuel for several months and owes wages to some of its 2,000 staff. . . . "

Comment: The government & private sector fallout is only just beginning.

Old YellerGive us some wiggle room#6638912/04/01; 12:48:29

Tales from balanced budget land.Seems the administration needs a little more flexibility,despite the recent dispatching of the 30 yr. bond and surpluses as far as the eye can see.As mentioned in the article;

"Administration officials have made no specific request about how high they would raise the debt limit.But they said an increase of 750 billion to 800 billion would be enough to preclude an additional increase for at least a year."

I assume,given the magnitude of that figure,that the mentioned congressional aid is a Democrat.

skiAnother FUNDAMENTAL for all PM's to add to the evergrowing list.#6639012/04/01; 13:15:44

I keep track of all of the FUNDAMENTALS in all of the various markets that I follow. They give me the best guidance as to the ultimate direction a market will take. I then usually wait for TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (TA) to tell me WHEN enter or exit a position.

The snip that follows seems to be yet another positive "fundamental" for all of the PM complex.

From "The international forecaster" November 2001 (HC#2) by Bob Chapman.

"Japanese purchases of gold investment products, such as bars and coins, were 10-15 tons in September, nearly four times the monthly average for the first eight months of the year. Merchants see even higher purchases in the months ahead as demand for safe assets continues. As the yen weakens the flight to quality will pick up speed. Japanese savings protection by the government, like our FDIC, goes from full coverage to a maximum of $82,638 starting in April. We see a deluge of funds going into gold. What sane Japanese wouldn't swtch funds over that limit to gold (plus silver and platinum?) with most of the banks already insolvent? Average household savings is $115,700."

GoldenmeanContest#6639112/04/01; 13:28:00

NetkingThe Deflation Monster Liveth!#6639212/04/01; 14:02:12

John H. Makin - Economic Outlook


"We are fast rediscovering an uncomfortable truth buried between the lines in the 384 pages of Keynes's General Theory: Central banks cannot end recessions that they did not cause. After 450 basis points of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve so far this year, the Fed's press release after the November 6 Open Market Committee meeting sounded almost apocalyptic: "Heightened uncertainty and concerns about a deterioration in business conditions both here and abroad are damping economic activity. For the foreseeable future . . . the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness. . . . "

R Powell$$$$$$$$295.00$$$$$$$#6639312/4/01; 14:22:03

Gandalf, good wizard, please place my guess in the small opening between THX and Neubie. Thanks guys for making a little room for me.

Canuck GoldCOMEX close on Friday#6639412/4/01; 14:45:34


Gandalf, MK didn't specify that the choices had to be in 50 cent increments.

Wky_WoodsmanPOG Contest#6639512/4/01; 14:51:44

Anchored with gold in the harbor as the seas continue their restless stirrings. Patience, steady mates.

uponroofInterview with Lynn Turner.....former Chief Accountant for SEC#6639612/04/01; 15:16:37

Mucho speculation about how far reaching Enron type explosions are, how much more can we expect, and what to look for. Mr. Turner, former big mahoff accountant at the SEC, is very candid in stating "we will undoubtedly see more" , "this is an iceberg, and the Titanic just hit it".

"Q. Are there other accounting time bombs, warning signs?

A. Given the way audits have been conducted, more by inquiry than by real investigation in the last few years, we will undoubtedly see more. This is an iceberg, and the Titanic just hit it. A study by Andersen last year showed that there were 230 restatements, the majority in the technology industry, but manufacturing was in there as well. That would be something to look for. But I think more than that, I'd encourage investors to look for C.E.O.'s or C.F.O.'s who are aggressive in their financial reporting and accounting practices, and that's where the time bombs are likely to be..."

BTW- NY Times seems to be digging in on this story as far as deregulation, culpable parties, etc.

BeowulfExchange Stabilization Fund gold included in USGS reports#6639712/04/01; 15:18:48

There is an interesting reference in the January 2001 report that shows US gold in the Treasury. If you look at the report it shows 8140 tons in 1997, 8130 tons in 1998, 8170 tons in 1999, and then suddenly it is back down to 8140 tons in 2000. The note (4) in the line references total Treasury stock includes gold in Exchange Stabilization Fund.

I wonder where this writer got his information since the Treasury denies that the Stabilization Fund has gold.

For those that are interested in Silver go back to the main menu and check out the silver report.


megatronArgentina#6639812/4/01; 16:03:25

Does anyone have a handle on what happened to peoples trading accounts? Were they frozen? Obviously another huge blinking 'lightbulb over head' as to why you want your assets outside your 'legal' domicile. That means gold as well. BTW almost everyone in Brazil is 'on the payroll' too, just like Canada. Tick tock tick tock......
Wky_WoodsmanCorrection #6639912/4/01; 16:54:54

Cavan ManAA A-300 Crash#6640012/4/01; 17:04:20

Can anyone confirm if our comrades at the FAA have unequivocally ruled this an "accident"? Sure has been quiet.
NetkingSILVER IN THE LIMELIGHT - I#6640112/4/01; 17:09:36

SILVER OPINIONS(compiled by James Cook)
More people are expressing favorable opinions about silver. Editor Brien Lundin asks, "What's the only investment Warren Buffet, George Soros and Bill Gates agree on?" The answer is silver, a commodity Lundin claims is both undervalued and indispensable. "This is why all three of these gentlemen, along with untold thousands of far-sighted investors, have positioned themselves to earn huge profits during a silver-price break-out."

Editor Robert Chapman writes, "The first rule of investing is to buy low and sell high, but very few people actually practice this rule. The world has very little silver and Warren Buffet owns a quarter of it. Silver went to $50 twenty years ago when there was plenty of silver available….. If you doubt silver can go up ten or eleven times in price just look at the fact it already did that when silver was readily available. Also, look at the fact that palladium recently went up ten times in price in only four years….. We feel this could be a once in a lifetime opportunity none of us will ever see again. We missed out on this twenty years ago and we are not missing out again."

Newsletter author James Puplava warns, "A day is coming when the price of silver will rise. The demand/supply deficit points to silver's scarcity. I believe that when that day arrives, we will see what happened in Japan when the price of palladium rose. The Japanese Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) changed the rules to stop buyers from taking delivery by requiring cash buyers to post 2-3 times the amount of the actual cash purchase price of palladium. The CFTC has similar rules known as congestion whereby they could alter the rules to prevent or slowdown delivery….. Given the situation that now exists on the COMEX, I recommend taking possession and delivery of all silver purchases. If you are buying large quantities, I would find a safe and reputable place to store it. Leaving it at the COMEX, given today's enormous commercial short position, is not prudent."

Editor Lawrence Roulston writes, "The underlying fundamentals of the silver market are more bullish than perhaps any other commodity. Virtually every investor or analyst who has examined the silver market agrees that the silver price must rise….. a big move in the silver price is not only inevitable, but the time for that move is fast approaching….. The situation in the silver market simply can not continue much longer. For 12 consecutive years, industrial demand for silver has outstripped supplies. The result has been massive draw downs of inventories, which are now described by the leading experts as fast approaching ‘critical levels’….. Some of the most successful investors in the world have already acted to position themselves for the inevitable rally in the silver price. The time to act is now, because the silver price can move very quickly, leaving investors in the dust….."
Silver expert David Morgan says, "The silver market is ready to make a historic move. Once the move begins, those that waited will look for the pullback, it will not happen until silver is significantly above today's level." Since everybody has an opinion, I'll add mine. In silver you have an ageless precious metal with an intrinsic value now selling at historic lows. This tangible asset stands outside the paper monetary system. There's nothing else like it. It has universal demand by industry and by people around the world who value it because it's scarce and precious. It has the edge on gold because of its shrinking world supply, although a boost in the gold price would help silver. It can be highly volatile, and in the past its dramatic price gains have staggered the imagination. We think that, because of the dire state of the world economy, it's the best thing you can own right now. Of course, that's only our opinion and yes, we're trying to sell it to you, but what's the potential for loss at these levels compared to the potential for gain? Furthermore, the U.S. is eyeball to eyeball with a financial catastrophe that could send hordes of people into precious metals. You've heard that old cliché about a "ground floor opportunity." This may be the best one you will see for a long time to come. . . ."

uponroofNetking#6640212/4/01; 17:17:05

Is there a link for that silver piece? It just so happens I have a friend recently intrigued with silver and have been looking for various links to supply him with. Anything else appreciated also. Thanks.
NetkingSILVER IN THE LIMELIGHT - Part II#6640312/4/01; 17:23:28

Most silver experts, including Ted Butler, advocate silver because of the growing discrepancy between supply and demand. But I think it's important to own it primarily because of an approaching economic crisis. There is not a single piece of positive economic news that would lead any rational observer to conclude that an economic upturn is coming next year. Highly touted housing starts have flattened out and stopped growing. An upturn needs growth, not the kind of severe declines in profits and capital investment that are plunging our economy towards a worse than Japan-type scenario.

We all know that the policy prescription for this crunch is to push out more money through interest rate cuts, added bank reserves, tax cuts, mortgage refinancings, tax rebates and added government spending. Unfortunately, it's not working. Too much prior damage from booming credit growth, speculative excess and overconsumption have left a sick economy. Problems for corporations won't go away quickly, no matter what. They face rising bankruptcies, mounting write-offs, credit restrictions, and sinking profits that lead to massive layoffs. We've mentioned their intractable problems before; a too high dollar, a ferocious trade balance, downsizing and restructuring, weak balance sheets, lack of pricing power, untrustworthy financial data, rising depreciation charges and too much debt. Add to this litany of worries a mountain of super-leveraged financial derivatives (doubling since the NASDAQ decline), the return of government deficits, astronomical stock values and an incredible burst of misplaced optimism that leaves most people terribly vulnerable to a crash. Others agree. Doug Casey writes, "I don't believe we're looking at just another cyclical downturn this time. We could be – but I don't think so. The meltdown of the bubble economy; the dissipation of perhaps trillions in the busted tech boom; the negative wealth effect from the collapse of stocks; now real estate, and next the dollar; the huge buildup of capacity which will go idle; the historic debt burden; and now a war that could go on for many years add up to a truly deadly combination."

Richard Russell tells us, "The bull market of 1982 to 1999 saw the greatest amount and level of excesses in financial and economic history. The bear market that follows will not be a little two-year affair. Somewhere along the line the bear market correction is going to get serious. And I mean REALLY serious. Bear markets are not markets in which we are meant to make money. Bear markets are markets in which we are supposed to survive." Steve Puetz warns, "Excessive valuations, excessive leverage, and underlying economic weakness cannot be ignored forever….. A bear market never ends until all forms of leverage are liquidated to a certain degree. And the liquidation hasn't even started in derivatives. There's a lot of air holding up blue-chip stocks. It'll be a long way down before this bear market is over." Bob Prechter's newsletter writes, "….. a depression and not a recession is underway….." Bill Buckler says, "A general and global recession is now sweeping across the world." Mr. X warns, "Don't be caught off guard by the greatest crash and depression in history." Doug Noland states, "Credit excesses of such magnitude are increasingly destabilizing for both the economy and the financial system."

Dr. Kurt Richebacher tells us, "The U.S. economy is crumbling fast. The immediate key causes are plunging profits and capital spending. But the root cause has been conclusively identified: grossly inflated consumer spending, as reflected in the collapse of personal saving and the explosion of the trade deficit. What we saw in the past few years was not a new paradigm U.S. economy bursting of health, but a bubble economy that has been bursting of unprecedented credit and debt excesses. Ever looser money and credit, and overconfidence, are maintaining the illusion of stability of an economy and a financial system that are in reality vulnerable as never before. "Our focus remains strictly on corporate profits and capital spending as the most important influences determining the economy's growth trend. They portend further drastic deterioration. The U.S. economy is precariously held upright by two bubbles that have yet to burst: the housing bubble and the dollar bubble. At the same time, a myriad of excesses in the financial system threaten to trigger a systemic crisis. It is really a barrage of bubbles waiting for the shock to confidence that will burst them altogether. That shock to confidence is due when disappointing data unravels the high-riding hopes for the coming U.S. economic recovery. For good reasons, the desire to see and to predict that recovery is pathological."

If these economic experts are correct then it's imperative you take measures to protect yourself. In our mind silver offers the most protection, the greatest upside and the least risk. If you do not have at least 10% of what you own in silver (or gold) you could be wiped out in the days ahead. Nobody knows the future, but believing the endless hype from Wall Street can prove deadly to your financial health."

Call CPM/USAGold for your gold & silver needs, today!

NetkingUponroof#6640412/4/01; 17:32:34

Sir Uponroof, the site for that article also sells Ag/Au so I didn't post the link here per forum guidelines. Cheers Netking
Black BladeSome Power Customers Could See Disruptions - Power Crisis Part II?#6640512/4/01; 17:44:02


Enron Corp. warned electricity customers Monday that it might be unable to serve them all because of the financial problems that led the Houston energy giant to file for the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. Such a pullout could cause short-term disruptions in California if done with little notice, especially on a cold day with many power plant outages and extra demand from holiday light displays, energy officials warned.

But the state's relatively new power-buying operation would be up to the task of lining up any extra electricity that might be needed for Enron's customers, officials said. They just want as much notification as possible to avoid the frightening shortfalls of last winter and spring, when power buyers frantically scoured the West by phone to scare up any available megawatt to prevent rolling blackouts. Gov. Gray Davis said he doubts Enron's bankruptcy filing will have an immediate effect on California, although he predicted it could result in rising wholesale electricity prices in coming days.

Black Blade: Energy Crisis Part II? The last Energy Crisis triggered this current recession by hitting the consumer and corporate bottom line. As every postwar recession has been preceded by an Energy Crisis.

Waverideruponroof #66402#6640612/4/01; 17:49:31

Check this link uponroof-it provides financial commentary on PM, with an emphais on silver.

Black BladeForeclosures Hit Record Yet New Car Sales Soar #6640712/4/01; 17:54:09


As layoffs spread across the country, the portion of U.S. homeowners falling into foreclosure reached its highest recorded level in the third quarter, and the percentage slipping behind in their mortgage payments was the highest in 10 years, the Mortgage Bankers Association said yesterday.

Lenders began foreclosure proceedings against 0.38 percent of homeowners in the third quarter, the highest level since they began tracking the figure in 1972, although not much higher than it was during several quarters in the mid-1990s, the bankers Association said. Meanwhile 4.87 percent of homeowners had fallen at least 30 days behind in their payment. Mortgage experts predicted the numbers will get worse before they get better if unemployment, the key factor affecting the rate of foreclosures and delinquencies, continues to rise, as economists expect it will.

Black Blade: Get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash on hand for several months expenses, get food stores and basic necessities. This recession is hurting many who simply did not take personal responsibility and prepare for unexpected events like unemployment, family crisis, losses on investments, natural disaster, economic upheaval, etc. At every turn the Pimps, Pied Pipers and Trolls of Wall Street sing their siren songs that the recession will end this quarter, no next quarter, well maybe the second quarter next year, well….maybe ….. You get the picture, in the meantime many will lose their homes, financial well being, etc.

Black BladeHow do you spell, or is it smell, market manipulation?#6640812/4/01; 18:05:08


Richard Russell, who has been writing Dow Theory Letters since 1958, touches on the subject. "I continue to receive questions as to whether there's manipulation going on in the stock market. I've resisted this idea a long time, but slowly and surely I've come to the conclusion that yes, the Fed does step in at various times and manipulate the market," he says. Russell, who has been following markets for more than 50 years, has one of the most highly respected investment newsletters in this country. Based in La Jolla, Calif., Russell has been looking at the stock market's behavior this autumn and wondering just what keeps prices so robust. "How do they do it?" he asks in his newsletter, which is available only by subscription for $250 a year. "My guess is that the Fed does it through one or more large brokerage houses, and it's done with S&P futures. Too many times I've seen the market turn at critical junctures, and I believe it's beyond coincidence."

Black Blade: Thom Calandra and Richard Russell don't exactly finger the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (aka Plunge Protection Team). Although John Crudele at the NY Post has tackled this touchy subject in the mainstream press. Interesting article though. I have noticed that Richard Russell has recently been making several statements in regard to this recession as being a severe deepening recession. "Interesting Times"

uponroofNetking/Waverider#6640912/4/01; 18:56:06

Thanks for the help. I'm hot on the trail now. Looking for the basic hype stuff for now. The info on what this silver market is capable of given the shortages and possibly incredible demand dynamics if(when) it gets hot. Netking's first segment (Silver Opinions) typifies this. A perfect teaser. I challenge all here to send that segment to any of your paper friends. If they do not show interest they do not have a pulse. Thanks again.

magatron-went reading the Buenos Aires newspapers and got an eyefull regarding whats frozen and what's not. Try this link above for the full story. Here's an excerpt from the editorial:

"...What is perhaps as distressing as the situation of the most vulnerable and of the least paid members of society is that, once again, privilege in a measure and the fashion of an eighteenth century court is alive and well incorporated in all decisions in Argentina: high-ranking officials in the government structure and others with access to power have been excluded from submitting to what might be called the two-fifty rule for withdrawal of funds. Which means that the government does not set an example even at this late hour in its unrelenting failure, rather, it simply perpetuates the endemic corruption that is part of our society. This means that those who seek to break the new rules, commit fraud, by-pass banking regulations, clandestinely remit funds abroad, or otherwise choose to evade the most recent salvation package will not be lawbreakers but mere emulators of our seniors and betters. However, another two billion lost in the nation's reserves would have put the entire financial viability of the banking network on the brink of disaster..."

The South American culture is not helping the situation at all. But then we Americans have our own cultural vices which are surfacing now via Enron.

jinx44The Classic Collection: 18-kt Gold Jewelry --Quality Gifts Without Jewelry Store Markups?????????????????????#6641012/4/01; 19:30:04

How do we know without an associated gram weight for each piece?
Max RabbitzWhy GE price dropped from last Friday#6641112/4/01; 19:34:41

Turns out the EPA wants them to dredge the Hudson River to remove PCBs (CNBC). This is going to cost some bucks and looks like somebody had some advance knowledge of the ruling. At the time GE had a permit to dump. The PCBs are now buried in the river sediment digging will only stir them up. Most have already leached into the Ocean anyway. Too late. This is similar to the EPA mandating several Wisconsin rivers to be dredged after the majority of PCB residues have already leached into Lake Michigan and the remainder are safely buried under the sediment. Maybe a hurricane will come along and stir up those Wisconsin River bed sediments.

If you want to own something where you are the insider....own gold and a little silver too.

Gandalf the WhiteThe GC1Z 12/7/01 Settlement Price GUESSING CONTEST !#6641212/4/01; 19:35:41

UPDATE ------GC1Z Price Guessing Contest
Progress Report as of 12/4/01 19:00MT
USAGOLD (11/29/01; 19:37:04MT - msg#: 66079)
In addition to the posting contest, we will have a price guessing contest. Where gold will close on Friday, December 7th on the Comex -- the December contract. Each entry must be surrounded by $$$$$$ dollar signs as follows $$$$$30,000$$$$$. The winner -- he or she who comes closest to that closing price -- will receive a one tenth ounce Austrian Philharmonic.
USAGOLD (11/29/01; 19:41:44MT - msg#: 66080)
I neglected to put a close date on the price guessing contest. All entries must be posted by 5pm MST Tuesday, December 4th.
USAGOLD (11/29/01; 21:07:22MT - msg#: 66096)
All. . .Contest!!
I have the good news that my far-seeing and wizardrous friend, Gandalf the White (who I predict will be starring in a movie real soon) will be monitoring the price guessing contest. Let's make the guesses in 50¢ increments.
The Wiz says --Thank you all for your prognostications!!
The clock has struck 17:00 MST on Tuesday the 4th of December, 2001 and the CONTEST is now closed.

Twas the "Wky_Woodsman" that just got in under the gun for the final official guess. I have posted above, the instructions and rules that MK setforth for all to follow. There was only one guess posted before the "50 cent increment" rule was made, and that one was luckly MINE,
and met the 50 cent rule.)

Below are listed the "CONTEST ENTRIES". Some that MAY be considered to be "Non-conforming" entries are listed AFTER the "conforming" list. The Wiz is only the scribe and not the JUDGE ! Judging shall be done by the Owner of the Castle. Best of luck to all and we all await the Settlement of GC1Z on Friday.
$$$$3,257.50$$$$ The Invisible Hand (12/3/01; 20:30:25MT
$$$$$390.00$$$$$ Chicken man (12/1/01; 19:16:27MT
$$$$$350.00$$$$$ sourdough (12/1/01; 09:28:15MT
$$$$$331.00$$$$$ LimitUp (12/2/01; 21:33:35MT
$$$$$320.00$$$$$ Scarab (12/1/01; 15:30:22MT
$$$$$302.50$$$$$ Gene (12/2/01; 18:22:33MT
$$$$$300.50***** Goldfinger 2 (12/3/01; 08:12:43MT
$$$$$300.00$$$$$ Max Rabbitz (11/30/01; 20:07:20MT
$$$$$297.50$$$$$ Netking (12/2/01; 01:53:34MT
$$$$$296.50$$$$$ tedw (11/30/01; 19:50:42MT
$$$$$296.00$$$$$ THX-1138 (12/1/01; 00:31:32MT
$$$$$295.00$$$$$ R Powell (12/4/01; 14:22:03MT
$$$$$294.00$$$$$ Neubie (12/3/01; 14:22:02MT
$$$$$292.50$$$$$ darkhorse (11/30/01; 18:48:35MT
$$$$$291.00$$$$$ coco (12/3/01; 23:43:10MT
$$$$$290.00$$$$$ ji (12/2/01; 16:36:24MT
$$$$$289.50$$$$$ goldquest (11/30/01; 23:12:21MT
$$$$$289.00$$$$$ Wky_Woodsman (12/4/01; 14:51:44MT
$$$$$288.50$$$$$ slingshot (12/1/01; 13:02:04MT
$$$$$288.00$$$$$ Goldenmean (12/04/01; 13:28:00MT
$$$$$287.00$$$$$ Novice Bear (12/4/01; 10:02:05MT
$$$$$286.50$$$$$ ROSEBUD99 (12/2/01; 21:21:03MT
$$$$$286.00$$$$$ balzac (12/3/01; 14:43:03MT
$$$$$285.50$$$$$ Achilles (12/04/01; 04:28:10MT
$$$$$285.00$$$$$ Quixote (12/2/01; 15:04:57MT
$$$$$284.50$$$$$ Rx Gold (12/3/01; 22:20:41MT
$$$$$284.00$$$$$ redloc (12/3/01; 21:20:33MT
$$$$$283.50$$$$$ Lamprey (12/03/01; 09:52:17MT
$$$$$283.00$$$$$ goldroadlx7 (12/03/01; 15:27:45MT
$$$$$282.50$$$$$ uponroof (11/30/01; 20:57:34MT
$$$$$282.00$$$$$ Maiden Fan (12/2/01; 11:13:21MT
$$$$$281.50$$$$$ Buena Fe (12/1/01; 20:51:51MT
$$$$$281.00$$$$$ VanRip (11/30/01; 21:05:14MT
$$$$$280.50$$$$$ Solomon Weaver (11/30/01; 23:03:28MT
$$$$$280.00$$$$$ Yellow Jacket (12/2/01; 10:51:56MT
$$$$$279.50$$$$$ The CoinGuy (11/29/01; 21:48:53MT
$$$$$279.00$$$$$ Shermag (12/1/01; 13:30:47MT
$$$$$278.50$$$$$ Broken Tee (11/30/01; 10:52:21MT
$$$$$278.00$$$$$ Artie Farkle (12/1/01; 11:04:03MT
$$$$$278.00$$$$$ RobotGuy (12/1/01; 13:31:55MT
$$$$$277.50$$$$$ Gandalf the White (11/29/01; 20:17:49MT
$$$$$277.00$$$$$ Waverider (11/30/01; 01:23:24MT
$$$$$276.50$$$$$ goldenpeace (11/30/01; 04:45:06MT
$$$$$276.00$$$$$ cwa (11/29/01; 21:29:00MT
$$$$$275.50$$$$$ Ducat (12/01/01; 07:48:39MT
$$$$$275.00$$$$$ Gimli_ (11/29/01; 22:00:38MT
$$$$$274.50$$$$$ Black Blade (11/29/01; 21:54:25MT
$$$$$274.00$$$$$ mikal (11/30/01; 22:54:23MT
$$$$$273.50$$$$$ Christian (11/30/01; 06:41:42MT
$$$$$273.00$$$$$ Canuck (12/01/01; 09:00:56MT
$$$$$272.50$$$$$ Mythical (11/30/01; 18:08:12MT
$$$$$272.00$$$$$ Henri (11/30/01; 11:44:46MT
$$$$$271.50$$$$$ Argent (12/1/01; 10:16:21MT
$$$$$271.00$$$$$ Goldfly (12/2/01; 12:07:06MT
$$$$$270.50$$$$$ HOOSIER GOLDBUG (12/2/01; 17:14:24MT
$$$$$270.00$$$$$ Flatlander (12/1/01; 18:32:56MT
$$$$$269.50$$$$$ Frosty (12/2/01; 17:28:43MT
$$$$$269.00$$$$$ megatron (12/2/01; 14:50:46MT
$$$$$268.50$$$$$ HopeingII (12/1/01; 22:37:42MT
$$$$$268.00$$$$$ BR549 (12/2/01; 18:13:47MT
$$$$$266.50$$$$$ auric (12/3/01; 20:58:09MT
$$$$$263.80$$$$$ WW Oracle (12/2/01; 20:19:51MT
$$$$$261.00$$$$$ TEX (12/4/01; 00:34:52MT
$$$$$287.75$$$$$ Hydro (11/30/01; 20:53:23MT
$$$277.75$$$$Canuck Gold (12/4/01; 14:45:34MT
- msg#: 66394) COMEX close on Friday
Gandalf, MK didn't specify that the choices
had to be in 50 cent increments.
$$$$$276.60$$$$$ wiley (11/29/01; 22:47:01MT
$$$$271.75$$$$Humble Pie (12/4/01; 11:29:15MT

NetkingUponroof - Silver#6641312/4/01; 19:41:02

Sir Uponroof, this free public archive from Mr Butler of 25 or so silver articles will also prove very useful to anybody wanting to learn more about PM's. Cheers Netking
Max RabbitzWhy GE price dropped from last Friday#6641412/4/01; 19:56:17

Today the EPA announced that GE would have to dredge the Hudson River to remove PCB contamination from earlier dumping even though they had a permit at the time (CNBC). This will cost much. I suspect that the Hudson River is similar to several Eastern Wisconsin Rivers (Sheboygan & Fox) where the EPA has now mandated dredging to remove PCBs even though 2/3rds or the PCBs have already leached into Lake Michigan and the remainder are buried under the sediment. Dredging will only stir up the residue and further contaminate Lake Michigan and the fish.

I think insiders knew last Friday that this ruling would come down. Does anyone monitor the stock holdings (and shortings) of the EPA Administrators?

If you want to be an insider buy a some physical gold and silver, and sleep well at night.

Max RabbitzDoes anyone monitor the stock holdings (and shortings) of#6641512/4/01; 20:29:39

To answer my own question. Yes. There are lots of disclosure forms the government requires. More than you want to fill out. However, we are only human. We gain friends and status if we can provide something of value to those who are close. In my experience the attempt of Government to avoid corruption is a hopeless cause. Yet what is the alternative? Mostly gold in my opinion.
Chris PowellGodsell wants to reduce hedging at AngloGold and Normandy#6641612/4/01; 20:37:59

AngloGold's Bobby Godsell wants to reduce
hedging at his own company and at Normandy:

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
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Black BladeAustralian Gold Producers Hedging Less:Jpmorgan#6641712/4/01; 20:40:40


PERTH, Dec 4 Asia Pulse - Australian gold producers continued to cut down on hedging activities last quarter, according to JPMorgan's September Quarter hedging review. The review showed hedging in the three month period totalled 36.5 million ounces at $A591 ($US307.44) per ounce, down 1.4 million ounces or 3.7 per cent on the June quarter figure of 37.9 million ounces at A$627 per ounce.

Thirteen companies reduced their ounces hedged by a combined total of 1.8 million ounces while five companies added 500,000 ounces. Lihir increased its book by 133,000 ounces and Normandy NFM and Hill 50 by about 90,000 ounces. The largest decrease for the quarter was Normandy Mining which was down 182,000 ounces to 9.59 million ounces; Newcrest 153,000 ounces to 6.57 million ounces and Sons of Gwalia 75,000 ounces to 3.35 million ounces. According to the review, hedging now covers 43 per cent of Australian gold reserves, down from 46 per cent in the June quarter.

Black Blade: Newmont has threatened to unwind Normandy hedges if their bid is successful. An effective withdrawal of 9.59 million ounces from the paper gold supply. A good reason for AU and ABX to step in and make sure that does not happen. A rising POG will devastate the hedge fund miners.

uponroofGodsell...."interesting and thoughtful" for sure#6641812/4/01; 21:05:48

Interesting to see this long time hedger squirm his way through the poor reputation he has built at the cost of honest investors and producers.

Thoughtful in that he is definitely using all grey matter available to win an unwinable PR war.

*Deep Breath*.....count to ten.....

Timing here is no 'COINCIDENCE'. This is for the benefit of those critical to the NDY deal. Period.

If Mr Godsell wants 'CREDIBILITY' the markets open shortly. BUY A FEW TONNES OF GOLD. Until his actions continue in reducing hedged gold to the point of a clear, irreversible, long term change in philosophy I will remain suspicious.

This little change of heart borders on sickening and I must stop typing before I say something very offensive.

Anxious to read what others persuing NDY, who have a long established DEMONSTRATED policy against hedging, have to say about this conversion.

Black BladeNormandy Hints At Newmont Higher Bid#6641912/4/01; 21:32:11


[Dow Jones] Normandy (NDY) advises shareholders to "do nothing" on AngloGold (AGG) offer until board makes formal recommendation. Normandy board believes it's "premature" to make recommendation, which could be interpreted as Normandy hanging back on expectation of higher Newmont offer. Would expect Newmont to make counter offer in next few weeks as Normandy anticipates responding to AngloGold's offer by Dec. 13. NDY up 1.3% at A$1.62, above A$1.60 inferred AGG offer price.

Black Blade: A higher Newmont bid is expected. I notice that the shills at are afraid to address several issues such as the walk-away fee that AU will have to give to NEM if the Newmont-Franco-Normandy deal fails due to a successful AU bid. They also seem ignore the effects of a rising NEM and Franco-Nevada share price on the resulting Normandy bid. It is clear where sentiments lie. Now Hedge Fund ABX steps into the picture. It would appear that the titans of the hedged and unhedged Gold miners have made Normandy their battle ground for dominance.

RE: uponroof - Personally I see no conversion - only a PR campaign by AU to draw in the unsuspecting "marks." After 14 years of forward sales I do not expect a suddenly "enlightened" Bobby Godsell to see the error of his ways.

Buena Feboom boom#6642012/04/01; 21:39:36

......``This could destabilize the entire financial system,'' said Toru Komatsu, an independent fund manager who advises individual investors at Komatsu Portfolio Advisors Co. ``It's unbelievable that some fund managers had more than 5 percent of their portfolios in Enron bonds.'' ...........

12/04 23:00
Japanese Regulators Will Tighten Fund Rules After Enron Losses
By Takahiko Hyuga

Tokyo, Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese regulators will tighten rules this month for asset managers after Enron Corp.'s bankruptcy prompted investors to withdraw more than 2 trillion yen ($16 billion) from funds that owned the company's bonds.

The Investment Trusts Association, a self-regulatory group, will form a committee as early as Friday to consider rules to require funds to invest in debt rated investment grade or above, said Naoyuki Ichikura, an official at the association.

Merrill Lynch Investment Managers Japan Ltd., AIG Global Investment Corp., Nomura Holdings Inc., Daiwa Securities Group Inc. and nine other asset management firms are likely to join the committee, he said.

The redemptions, more than the 66 billion yen of Enron bonds held by Japanese funds, reflect concern money managers are investing in debt that is too risky. That may reverse the flow of $11 trillion in savings into mutual funds, making it harder for companies to finance their business.

``This could destabilize the entire financial system,'' said Toru Komatsu, an independent fund manager who advises individual investors at Komatsu Portfolio Advisors Co. ``It's unbelievable that some fund managers had more than 5 percent of their portfolios in Enron bonds.''

Daiwa Asset Management Co., Nikko Asset Management Co., UFJ Partners Asset Management Co., Japan Investment Trust Management Co. and Sumisei Global Investment Trust Management Co. reported losses on funds caused by their Enron exposure. Some money market funds, which guarantee to preserve capital for investors, fell into the red.

Junk Bonds

Enron's credit rating was cut to junk status Nov. 28 by the three leading rating companies. A junk rating means a company's bonds are considered below investment grade because they have a higher risk of default.

Japan's Financial Services Agency asked the fund association to tighten rules on operations and sales for money management funds to avoid a repeat of the cancellations that occurred since Enron collapsed, the Nihon Keizai newspaper reported earlier today. Regulators also want to limit investments in short-term debt.

The new committee may also discuss whether asset management companies should report the performance of their funds more regularly than twice a year, Ichikura said.

Black BladeSEC warns on numbers #6642112/4/01; 22:26:29

Earnings data on "pro forma" basis should be viewed skeptically.


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The nation's top securities regulator warned Tuesday that companies could be sued if they mislead investors by issuing confusing so-called "pro forma" financial results, weighing in on an issue of increasing concern to analysts and investors. The Securities and Exchange Commission also warned investors to view such reports with "appropriate and healthy skepticism."

Companies discussing their quarterly profits usually report earnings from continuing operations, based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. Increasingly, however, companies have reported "pro forma" results, which have no standards and pick out certain aspects of a company's business and highlight others, usually to the company's benefit.

Black Blade: DITTO! "Pro Forma" is a scam that is commonly used to confuse the investor and infer a much better outlook for a company than is usually the case. Some companies such as Cisco and are known for their rosy earnings forecasts (on a Pro Forma basis) when in reality they are bleeding cash and losing money at a furious pace. If these scams are made illegal then perhaps the investor will likely get a case of "Sticker Shock" when considering share purchases.

HoratioBarrack Vs Newmont don't sweat the little stuff#6642212/4/01; 23:19:31

Half of my gold stocks have been merged into Barrack,and half have been merged into Newmont.I never bought a single share of either and now I own both.
I am left with Newmont that has a higher stock price little or no hedges but more debt and Barrack that has less debt lots of hedges but more cash.
It appears I have a hedge .Maybe its that Yin and Yang thing !Anyway, its not earnings that makes a stock go up,its more buyers than sellers.When the time comes for the big buyers to buy in,the only place that can provide liquidity will be Newmont and Barrack and they both will go up.

skiThe moral of the story??#6642312/4/01; 23:46:25

From the Oct./Nov. issue of "The Bull & Bear Financial Report". (The following statistics are a little outdated in light of the apparant bear market rally that we are presently experiencing.)

"Ninety-nine percent of (mutual) funds declined in the quarter, he worse period since the fourth quarter of the 1987 market crash year. .... The top-performing sock mutual funds for the first nine months of 2001 are:

Rydex Venture 100, $66 million in assets, up 94%

ProFunds UltraShort, $54 million in assets, up 92%

Rydex Arktor Investor, $64 million, up 62%

Pro Funds UltraBear, $55 million, up 52%

Potomac OTC/Short, $3.3 million, up 51%

Lethold Grizzly Short, $6 million, up 50%

Rydex Tempest 500, $83 million, up 50%

End of snip......

If you add up the figures in the above report, a rather interesting bit of information comes to light. THERE WAS ONLY A TOTAL OF $331.3 MILLION INVESTED IN ALL OF THESE WINNERS PUT TOGETHER!! I am quite sure that this total represents far less than one tenth of one percent of all funds entrusted to mutual fund managers in America!! What a remarkably tiny, tiny percentage of people that had the courage to "swim against the stream". Furthermore, you can bet that at least 25% of the above "short" money was placed as hedge protection to off-set various "long" stock positions. Thus the % of successful investors was even smaller that these numbers indicate.

So what is the moral of the story??

You can be in the extreme minority and yet be the only one that is right about the future movement of a given market. This would seem the be the case in the area of silver and gold at this juncture. Presently, the % of mutual fund money invested in silver and gold stocks is a very tiny figure. And yet, these funds are up roughly 30% on average over the past 365 days. The silver-investor web site recently said that the percentage of silver bulls was around 17%. I am not aware of any market anywhere that has ever approached these levels. Extreme pessimism in the face of unbelievably positive fundamentals equals opportunity.

One last note. I learned/observed this at the top of the stock market: There were several vocal bears at the top. However their votes don't count as virtually NO ONE was heeding or otherwise ACTING on the advice.

HoratioEnron ....been there, done that!#6642412/5/01; 00:12:18

Years ago (1968) I was in the Garment business in N.Y.I was a contractor (and a creditor) for my Dad and his partner.They had 1 million in inventory and not 1 cent of it was their money.In 1968 the Department stores all started taking 60-90 days to pay thier bills instead of the usuall 30.This meant Dad and his partner needed 1 to 2 hundred thousand more cash per month to meet cash flow needs,payroll etc. They were technichly bankrupt
(no cash)but good accounts receivable.There was a creditors meeting set up.Before the meeting Dads partner asked me "How much do you think I owe the three piece goods manufacturers ?(N.Carolina cloth makers).I replied about $300,000 dollars.He said "You know what! they'r going to give me more credit before I come out of the meeting."Fat chance"! I thought.
To make a long story short ,he got the additional credit.
They had no choice but to keep him in business if they wanted any chance of getting thier money back.In one years time everybody got paid,every month had to be kept current plus 10 per cent of back bills paid.The accounts receivable went directly into the creditors bank account first when each check was received.The bottom line was they got paid ,but subsequent years when credit was needed everybody tightened up and no credit was available.They had bad memorys of near disasters and without credit the business was finished.Even though everybody got paid.
Enrons temporary cash infusion will only stall off the bankruptsy .You notice the lenders are the same people they already owe to! Been there done that!

tedwMiddle east#6642512/5/01; 00:35:52

All eyes should be on the middle east. Isreal has said it is going to take stepped up action against the P.A., and it already has.Whatever Muslim/arab support for the war on terrorism is about to evaporate in my humble opinion. The battle lines are being drawn.

The Saudi ruling elite will distance itself from the US as the US tacitly supports the Isreali actions. If an attack on Iraq follows soon in connection with these other activites, we can expect to see,at least, action by OPEC to cut off oil.

The coalition thing just cannot work. As long as Iran,Syria,the PA, et all., see the suicide bombers as freedom fighters in their demented minds, there is no possibility of peace.

Quote of the day: "You cant make peace with a snake"- author unknown

UsulHoratio- Very interesting story.#6642612/5/01; 00:56:57

I believe the linked article "Is credit a plastic house of cards?" remains relevant despite having been written in 1998.
The Invisible HandBreaking News? - Russia cuts its oil output#6642712/5/01; 03:21:25

Snippets from the BBC's website:

Russia has agreed to cut its oil output by 150,000 barrels per day from next year.
Crude oil prices at London's International Petroleum Exchange surged immediately after the news.

Opec was expecting Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, to cut its output by 200,000 per day.
And it is not yet clear whether the members of Opec will be satisfied with Russia's offering.

Those snippets were breaking news. The BBC World Service Radio reported in the last five minutes that since 911, Russia prefers to be seen as an energy ally of the West. Make of it what you want.

Black BladeSEC vows crackdown on reports#6642812/5/01; 05:40:44

SEC says pro forma results can amount to fraud


WASHINGTON - The Securities and Exchange Commission threatened to sue companies that mislead investors with pro forma accounting, which typically makes companies' earnings look better by excluding some costs. ''The antifraud provisions of the federal securities laws apply to a company issuing pro forma financial information,'' the SEC said on its Web site. The SEC also warned investors to view these widely used accounting reports with suspicion. Pro forma reports ''might create a confusing or misleading impression,'' the agency said.

Black Blade: I have hammered on the "Pro Forma" accounting scam before. The SEC has finally seen the light. Maybe we will see less of this nonsense.

Black BladeOil Jumps as Russia Raises Hopes for Cut#6642912/5/01; 06:25:25


LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped sharply on Wednesday after Russia decided to slash exports from next month, lifting market hopes for a global supply cut. Russia's decision to cut five percent of its exports was welcomed by heavyweight Saudi Arabia, which has led OPEC demands for Russia to join its efforts to curb excess supplies.

Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov met local oil companies on Wednesday morning and a government spokesman said the firms ``consider it possible to carry out a deeper reduction in the export of oil, which will reach 150,000 barrels a day from January 1, 2002.''

Black Blade: OPEC had hoped that Russia would cut production 200,000 bbl/day. Norway agreed to cut 200,000 bbl/day and Mexico had agreed to cut 100,000 bbl/day. Still, this could push petroleum prices higher and slam the Global Economy a bit more. This will likely draw down US oil inventories though. The Gold mining industry should take note.

uponroofRand CollapsingToday ........... SA Investors flock to Gold Stocks#6643012/5/01; 07:33:15

Interesting day in South Africa.

Noon JSE (Johannesburg Stock Exchange):
HAR (Harmony) up 11.3%
ANG (Anglosoldout) up 6.5%
GFI (Goldfields) up 7.8%
DUR (Durban Roodeport Deep) up 6%

All this with bullion down 0.27 percent at $275.85.
This is a safe haven move to be sure. Going into stocks not bullion is big house panic. Just as XAU outperforming POG is bullish indicator, so is this. Producers are not missing this action and should be looking to spruce up their house by reduce hedges. On that subject, if you were looking to reduce hedges, in order to improve your balance sheet against a rising POG (ahem....and of course to 'woo' a mine and it's investors whom you were trying to buyout), where would you look to enter? How about 275+-?. What's wrong with that price? Would you be waiting for POG to lose more value into the 260's? Ridiculous. The floor at 272 is all but concrete, IMHO. Now is as good a time as any. In fact if you wait too long, you might miss your chance at truly cheap gold. Mr Godsell, we investors watch your every move and await your wisdom here.

If Godsell starts putting his money where his mouth is, we might really see some action in POG, and through that, spark stocks worldwide.


WaveriderArgentina's agonising options#6643112/5/01; 07:40:23


The game is up in Argentina. The government is in effect defaulting and has now also imposed restrictions on withdrawals from banks and on access to dollars for transactions abroad. The question is: what happens next?

All ways forward involve default and debt restructuring, not just by the government but by the private sector as well. Organising these defaults will be very messy. The convertibility scheme is also in effect dead: it would be impossibly costly to restore the belief a peso is as good as a dollar. So the choices that matter are between dollarisation at the current rate, devaluation and then dollarisation at a lower rate, or floating the peso..."

RobotGuy(No Subject)#6643212/5/01; 08:14:13

Some Canadians suggest that a low dollar policy for Canada is good for business. If you compare Canadian average earnings to American average earnings you can appreciate that American people must spend quite a bit less for their gold. I am very jealous of that fact, however as the Canadian dollar increases in value, and the POG lowers, I get very excited. A low dollar policy may be good for business, but a high dollar is good for the investor. With all of my Canadian goldbug friends I will cheer "GO DOLLAR!!!"
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OROCoin Guy - Enron's trillion and the Fed (again)#6643412/5/01; 09:22:47

Like LTCM, we are talking notional values on derivatives that have expiration dates. The derivatives allow a very small time premium to "control" a large chunk of "underlying", usually at a rate below 2% per month, and at under 1% on quiet markets. That is why the pricing of the time premiums is so important, and why interest rate setting errors by the Fed affect these markets so strongly.

The story is one of bubbles leading to crashes leading to low interest rates leading to new bubbles etc..

Thus when the Fed did not raise rates as oil prices rose in 1997, it created a bubble going into 1998, which brought LTCM to access funds it should never have had an opportunity to obtain and enter trades that should have appeared unprofitable if interest rates charged to them were higher. In response to the LTCM debacle, the Fed lowered rates too far. The reaction by the Fed was too slow, and once it was in place it lasted too long. The result was the internet/tech bubble and the second derivative bubble. These burst and put the new internet/tech companies that should never have been funded, out of business and now drove Enron into bankruptcy. Along with them are a million mortgage delinquents that should never have gotten such large mortgages.

After all of this, the Fed should have reacted more quickly in lowering rates in 2000, and in raising them in 1999. The short term market that the Fed is trying to replace is naturally a volatile market, it is an error in itself to have a "stable" monetary policy. All the latter means is that the Fed will induce errors all the time as its steady interest rate is at one time too low and at another too high. The low rate errors produce bubbles, the high rate errors delay investment and drive fundumentally good businesses into bankruptcy. A second error is in focusing mostly on US economic conditions when the dollar is used internationally and one third to half its value and liquidity is determined by the actions of foreign borrowers and lenders.

To some extent, the Fed should have operated to offset pressures from the actions of other central banks, particularly when the Japanese were lowering rates to the ground in 93-95, the Fed should have reacted quickly to counteract the Japanese inflation, which would have prevented the 94-5 Asian bubble and its ultimate bursting in 96 and collapse in 97-8. In a global trade and capital flow environment it is wrong to key interest rates to domestic factors alone. When industry is moving its investment focus to Asia, it is not appropriate to maintain low interest rates at home, letting millions burry themselves in mortgages they were only marginally able to serve nor to allow continued marginally profitable investment in businesses that would go bust shortly after their new Asian competitors went online.

In short, the Fed should have moved more quickly. Should have reversed course as soon as possible into tightening, and should have counteracted inflationary forces from abroad.

And finally: By my measures, the global credit market bubble (and it was global and it was a bubble) had a relatively minor contribution from Fed policy. The main culprit was the BOJ, which funneled funds from its own inflation to the global credit markets. That is where near 0% rates have been rampant for half a decade. These funds, having been lent into Europe these past 4 years, found no use there because of the limitations on profitability imposed by regulation and labor culture, and displaced local savings abroad - into Asia and the US.

As should be the result, investors from Europe using Japanese funds, and the Japanese sources of these funds will suffer more than any other group including "overleveraged consumers" in the US. If the dollar were to devalue 30% against the euro and yen, there is no machinery, auto, tech, pharma, or agriculture industry within these countries that could withstand the US competition exactly because the Japanese capital, though invested more in Europe since the mid 90s, left that currency area into the US and built up an enormous capital base, particularly in R&D intelectual capital.

USAGOLDToday's Commentary: "We could be as little as one Enron away from its greatest rise in history.#6643512/5/01; 09:27:52

In Brief: Gold traded quietly for the second day despite the repercussions from the Enron collapse still rippling through the financial sector, Russia deciding to play ball on oil cuts, and Argentina wading further into its economic quagmire. According to European press reports, gold ignored all that and concentrated instead on the dollar which posted a marginal gain against the euro, but the real answer to gold's continued range bound behavior despite leakage in the financial system that should have sent the passengers to the third deck in search of the life jackets.

Analysis: The fact of the matter is that investors are buying gold and continue to do so in record numbers. So what is really going on in the gold market?

For a partial answer to that question, I would like to bring to your attention a New York Times article this morning on the high-flying New York Belfer family which happened to own a huge stake in the beleaguered Enron corporation. The article isn't particularly revealing in its coverage of Robert Belfer's plight. Outside the size of Belfer's loss -- some $2 billion -- it isn't much substantially different from the plight of a thousand others who have lost a bundle in that debacle. Toward the article's end, however, the Times points out a cause and effect relationship that anyone who regularly visits this page will immediately recognize -- a set of circumstances which does raise the interest level, (if not the blood pressure.)

". . .in 1996," the article reads, "Belco (Belfer's oil company taken public through Goldman Sachs) had started hedging its bets on oil prices, mostly through Enron. The bets worked out as long as oil and gas prices stayed low. But when prices rose, Belco was out of luck. Last year, it paid Enron $34 million under these complex hedging arrangements, and had to take a hit to its income statement of more than $100 million."

Earlier, the Times quotes one Bernard Feshbach -- an energy consultant -- as saying he was never impressed with Belco and its hedging strategy. "In a minor way," he said, "it was just like Enron. Everything got so complicated that nobody knew what was happening."

What we are learning as one infamous derivatives' debacle after another unfolds before us is that no one -- probably not even the broker/bankers who put the deals together -- know what's going in these complex arrangements. Remember the lament of Barings Bank, Orange County, Procter & Gamble, Ashanti -- and now Enron (the list could go those are just a few off the top of my head)? In each case without exception they pleaded "We didn't understand what was happening to us."

The traders responsible for these positions -- in oil, in the grains, in copper, in a dozen other commodities, and, yes, in gold -- know that if they keep the position on, and they keep feeding it with ever larger derivative positions:
A) the price doesn't move, and as long as they can keep the price from moving
B) their clients will not take losses that could be counted in the billions, And
C) the companies to whom they sold these strategies will postpone bankruptcy proceedings and ugly headlines, And
D) the traders themselves -- as well as the befuddled CFOs to whom they've sold these trading progams -- aren't going to get caught.

The problem is not they've made these bets, but their size -- which is enormous. As such, each day still on the job is a good day for the hedging strategist, but as Enron has shown us, that fateful day of reckoning on the employment scene can dawn without warning. The trader's demise is nothing if it isn't sudden and unexpected (at least as far as the outside world is concerned).
Just the slightest twist in the markets and the parts (along with the recriminations) begin to fly in every direction. Things can get ugly in a hurry, and someone will have to take the blame. Just ask any of the Enron traders pouring over the Wall Street Journal employment section this morning, and contemplating whether or not they are going to need legal representation.

In the meantime, as far as the gold market is concerned, we could be as little as one Enron away from its greatest rise in history.

* * *

So as gold owners, or potential gold owners, the scenario outlined above is the situation we must take under consideration. To say that there isn't something sinister going on in the gold market is not to have been paying attention over the years.

What I think we are beginning to understand is that this thing goes much deeper than just the gold market. It encompasses nearly every aspect of the price finding mechanism within the economy. As a client asked the other day when the light went on: "Where did this start? Were the universities teaching this or something?" It's like asking "Where did the anthrax come from?"

The question comes down to whether or not you believe that this financial system -- glued together in nearly every way with derivatives -- is going to hold together. With each passing Enron (and make no mistake, there are others out there waiting for their day in the glaring lights), the structure holding the system in place erodes a little further.

When systemic risk progresses to rollover -- and the massive infection already breeding in the financial system surpasses the ability to resist and bounce back -- you will be glad you had the foresight to buy a little gold when the derivative traders were conveniently holding it down for you. After all, as we have said all along, gold isn't an investment anyway, but an insurance policy, and the twain, it seems, will meet at about the time the system begins to unravel.

* * * * *

Those of you looking for a deeper understanding of the forces at work in the gold market will find our latest Quarterly Review a beacon in a sea of market confusion. In it, master analyst and prominent market maven, James Grant offers his views on the subject in an extensive article not to be missed titled "For Real Money." You can receive Mr. Gran'ts thinking by hard copy and private download by going to our sign-up page and requesting an Introductory Information Packet. And Mr. Grant is only a small part of our 32-page Review. We also feature some advice from Hong Kong's Dr. Marc Faber "When Things Don't Add Up," and my own "After the Twin Towers: New Realities for Gold Investors." All in all, the net effect is to re-orient your thinking to the present circumstances. Your inquiry is welcome.

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Those looking for an on-line overview of the forces at work in the gold market will find the review at our Commentary & Review section of interest. It covers the longer term view. Registration is requred go to the Info Packet link above.

I've also posted some good article summaries and links at the Commentary & Review page.

If you have an interest in pricing out gold coins or having your questions answered, you phone call is welcomed at the toll-free phone numbers at the bottom of this page.

Galearis@RobotGuy#6643612/5/01; 09:31:09

The CAN$ and gold

Hello sir, to a fellow Canuck.

I am not as knowlegeable about fiscal affairs as many on this forum - which is not of course to say that this is not more than the average Canadian or (for that matter) even saying that much - but my brother stated something the other day that may cast some light on the subject. Whenever he has bought gold through the years of our fluctuating exchange rate with the USD, he has noted that while the CAN$ has fallen the POG in CAN$ terms has risen.

However, as the price of gold on COMEX has fallen over the years, what he has paid in CAN$ terms has remained relatively the same.

This is somewhat subjective on his/our part, of course, but one wonders if other gold producing countries have a similar pattern with their currencies and the POG.

I welcome comments from others out there about this too.

Best regards, and welcome aboard.


P.S. It is heading for 16 degrees C. here in Ontarioland today and it is a lot warmer on the outside now than it was a day or so ago (smile). I'll be back in the PM.

site stewardThis knowledge may be helpful to some#6643712/05/01; 09:46:59

The trend continues for euroland asset management

The consolidated financial statement for the recent week reveals that the European Central Bank and the euro member central banks allowed their net position in foreign currency to decrease yet further -- down EUR 400 million during this time period to EUR 255.5 billion.

The position in gold assets remained undiminished at EUR 128.233 billion. The 12,521 tonnes of official gold this represents is currently valued at EUR 318.53 per ounce for quarterly accounting purposes in the eurosystem. This will all be revalued through mark-to-market obligations in 3-1/2 weeks.

Bottom line:
Q: What does this mean, very fundamentally, for the rank and file gold owner?
A: The managers of a very significant currency block (which rivals the dollar) have positioned themselves -- not accidentally -- to allow a never-ending run-up in the value of the metal... and to benefit thereby.


Mr GreshamOro on Noland#6643812/5/01; 09:59:40

Lately I seem to be able to only scan the top few posts each morning before I have to run out for the day, but I just want to put in here that it was a treat to wake up to Oro's commentary on Noland (Inflation/Deflation) a few days ago. I'm almost through Noland (printed out to read at traffic lights, etc.) and then I'll be able to go back and see how Oro's take illuminates it.

I think one strong current going on here is how surprised we all are at the strength of "The System", and Oro brings some unique insights and analysis that offers some explanation (still beyond me to confirm or contradict from my own knowledge).

Of course, we all believe in economic fundamentals, perhaps too strongly in a time when psychology (and chicanery) has trumped it. And of course we know these can be only temporary. But what a long temporary!

There are going to be a lot of sad, bitter investors/gamblers out there when this shakes out. Elderly poor.

I woke up this morning thinking (in line with famous quotes like "Where's the beef?" and "Show me the money" and "Where are the customers' yachts?"):

"Where are the earnings?"

Of course there are not the earnings over a normal lifespan to support the valuations of today (though Oro helps with this a bit with his tax rate observations). Then I thought "And gold shows almost no earnings, which is why they shun it now." But gold is a bet/insurance that people have strayed too far from understanding not only what earnings are, but what money is.

And, in an upside down kind of situation, they cannot backtrack to a re-affirming of earnings (unless it's your own business, and probably a contrarian one) without taking a strong stand on a reversal of moneys.

In one quick attempt at a definition: Money is whatever people have faith in. But the crowd's faith in some things can vanish quickly, while rising or holding steady in others.

Mr GreshamMichael#6643912/5/01; 10:06:51

"each day still on the job is a good day for the hedging strategist"

And, Michael, you are an amazing writer. If this were a wise society, there would be a national position of teaching & influence for those of such wisdom. But, then, look what they did to Socrates...

ORONetking - of boom bust, Richenbacher and related folks#6644012/5/01; 10:23:59

I want to start out with a couple of comments regarding these folk's analysis of economic and monetary issues.

First, I would like to say that I agree with the Austrian school fundumental principles that inform their opinions. However, I find some of their applications of these principles lacking.


1. First of all, they do not view the savings statistics with as much skepticism as they view CPI or GDP deflator inflation measures. Savings data, however, do not include two major elements: stock options compensation and capital gains resulting from stock buy-backs, which have dominated the US stock markets for nearly a decade and provided an extra 1% to 2% on top of the 1.8%-3% dividend payouts during this period. This has distorted many measures including income measures - and thus savings measures.

Savings results including these two measures of income:

A Savings rate including stock options compensation
BSavings rate including financial asset accretion by stock Buy backs

As Austrian theory predicts, the artificial inflation of credit (consumption claims on non-existent resources) resulted in actual reduction in real savings of real resources and a loss of nominal savings rates later on as real incomes were hurt by the credit expansion and invested past savings lost their value according to the preceding substitution of artificial credit for real savings.

2. Despite much news of IPOs during the Tech boom, these never reached such a scale as to bring the capital raising function of the stock market into use. On net, listed companies have been returning funds to the markets at rates reaching $300 bil per year - it is foreign companies who raised capital here - at over $100 bil a year. Nearly all of the discussion of low valuation regarding dividend yields can be put to rest on the basis of this alone. Since the combined stock buy back and dividend yield only dropped to 3.3% for a short while, and was about 4% through most of the late 90s and 2000.

This is the result of the tax preference given to capital gains over dividend income, which makes the current after tax rate similar to a 6% yield in 1990.

This has also caused a shift in corporate capital funding from stock to debt - at a rate of 1/2 trillion dollars per year during most of the post 98 boom and now, with only a notch during the year 2000 drop in savings rates when debt issuance fell to $300 billion.

cont. later

site stewardJust raise your hand, so to speak, to show your interest#6644112/5/01; 10:24:07

MK said this earlier:
"Those of you looking for a deeper understanding of the forces at work in the gold market will find our latest Quarterly Review a beacon in a sea of market confusion. In it, master analyst and prominent market maven, James Grant offers his views on the subject in an extensive article not to be missed titled 'For Real Money'."

By simply saying "Show me the info!" using the request form we've provided (see link above), you can enjoy the same information services that are provided to Centennial's regular clientele. Jill will provide you with your own access codes with which to download the quarterly reports as they become available. And the current one is still hot off the press. Act now and enjoy it today.

(And if you choose to take things a step further saying "show me the bargains!", by picking up the phone any thime during Denver business hours you can enjoy the same competitive pricing on gold that has been offered for three decades to Centennial's thousands of satisfied customers.)


site stewardMr. Gresham#6644212/5/01; 10:28:14

...and look what they did to FOA / Trail Guide...


Cavan ManJust a note on "hedging strategists"....#6644312/5/01; 10:48:14

A friend of mine who is a gold trader in Manhattan recently met a couple of young, witty, intelligent and attractive derivative salesmen (female salespersons; pardon moi)at a local pub. Whilst exchanging pleasantries, each discovered the other's profession. My friend decided he would have a little fun and asked, "what are derivatives anyway?". The answer: I really can't explain that; but, you see, we have this teriffic software blah, blah blah......

Behold this house of straw, er, cards, oh, "whatever!" we call the new economy. Sovereign "giants" have seen this all developing for many years. In fact, I will wager that the '87 crash was a wake up call. FOA said as much.

Now, we see and we KNOW what we observe in the financial realm of (dis) order is not right; yea, cannot be right. Look at the DOW today or the NDQ or S&P. I care not if it is inflation or deflation to infinity and beyond.

I'll be in the golden lifeboat while paying for my ticket with Euro's.

As I was driving through a parking lot yesterday watching a tiny little woman trying to navigate same while attempting not to hit anything with her giant SUV all the while listening to the glib and loquacious "Brian Mc Fadden of the Wall Street Journal Report" I thought, yes, the world is right. (right!) Sorry for the rant.......CM

site stewardOfficial sector purchases of gold#6644412/05/01; 11:22:35

From WGC Rhona O'Connell's daily gold market commentary:

"Mongolia's central bank said on Wednesday it bought 13,452.6 kg of gold in the first 11 months of this year, 11.7 percent up from the same period of last year. This would suggest that it is easily on target for national production of 14 tonnes this year, as the Central Bank buys virtually all local output."

OROCont.#6644512/5/01; 11:48:50

2. cont.

Corporate debt was still being picked up by foreign buyers at a $230 billion rate as of Q2, up parabolicly from $20 bil in 1994, with equity purchases and direct investment (in plant and equipment etc.) following suit in similar proportions, though with a slight delay.

This is more an indication of non-dollar monetary/credit inflation outside the US displacing real savings from abroad into the US. That is in no way a bad thing. In today's global markets, the irresponsible inflating action of a foreign central bank would translate quickly into real capital resources flows from net exporting countries into non-inflating (or at least less inflating) countries. Net importers who inflate would simply suffer a currency collapse due to a loss of reserves from excess consumption, and a net outflow of capital.

3. The next issue to consider was discussed before, namely the result of de-facto tax rate reduction being a cause for the expansion of financial assets volumes, and therefore of debt levels. This is HEALTHY. My estimates indicate that effective tax rates have fallen over the past decade from 62% to 46%, thus making possible a better than 60% growth in REAL financial assets (net of price inflation). The 60% growth would hold even if real profits did not rise at all, but merely staid the same. This growth level was overshot to 82% in the peak bubble quarter of Q1 2000, corrected below that to 40% at the bottom of the post 9 11 crash, and has pretty much returned to being up 60% after the financial market recovery.

If one accounts for actual real profits growth then the appropriate figure is probably closer to the peak 80% + mark, which would probably have been retained had the post LTCM credit bubble not occurred. The bubble brought resources to be allocated by credit expansion rather than savings out of income (i.e. real resources), this brought about the internet/telecom bubble, a misallocation of resources if ever there was one, and a retail space bubble, another massive misallocation of resources.

The artificial credit sucked resources away from areas of the economy upstream from the consumer such as Energy. It created shortages of labor and other resources where the artificial credit was expended: in the tech sector and its Wall Street capital support services, brought income levels there up substantially, and thus attracted people and resources from the rest of the economy. The artificial income resulting from the artificial credit caused an unsustainable artificial rise in consumption.

The resources allocated towards servicing this artificial income, as well as for serving the artificial credit spenders in tech land and later in retailing were wasted because the underlying infrastructure investment in Energy etc., needed to produce the inputs into these new capacities was missing, and labor resources were over extended and brought to the wrong locations (silly valley, silly alley, etc.). Where great big silly houses were built to accommodate highly paid tech experts who would soon lose their income. Not surprisingly, some in the Valley real estate biz are talking of a 25% drop in high end home prices as the probable result. But not to worry, the techies are still in extremely short supply in the Midwest and in the peripheral cities/metro areas where the technology is being implemented. Once the tech experts discover this they will move to where they are actually needed, either physically, or by telecommuting.

The misallocation of resources by artificial credit pushing had to result ultimately in the following (according to Austrian business/credit cycle analysis):
a. A decline in the purchasing power or value of savings already invested (or rather malinvested). Which would require people to increase savings rates to match prior savings targets (now further away) and protect against the risk of losing wage income.
b. A "nuclear winter" (to borrow Fleckenstein's term) in capital expenditure where investment was in excess. And a proportional drop in incomes and employment in those capital producing industries.
c. The above would bring a rise of unemployment rates and a drop of consumption by those employed by the over-extended industries, and as a result of the reduction of their demand, consumer goods prices relative to labor income outside these industries should RISE.
d. The prices of industrial/service inputs strained disproportionately upwards during the peak of the boom (Nat Gas and Electricity), would fall accordingly. The companies that were loss makers at those artificially inflated input costs would return to profitability and start initiating new capital investments as the margin between prior product price and input prices makes the expansion of capacity attractive again.

Thus savings would the key to recovery: an increase in savings would re-orient prices of final products back to sustainable proportions to input costs. Both consumer and producer goods (energy) would fall relative to wage with the proportion of the fall of producer goods prices being significantly greater (because consumer's savings would continue being spent whiie producers sell from inventory and lower capital spending, thus lowering producer goods prices, and lowering input costs to the rest of industry and thus to still employed labor. Ultimately some labor will move out of former boom towns and into where it is needed.

site stewardGalearis and RobotGuy: Canadian dollars and gold#6644612/5/01; 11:50:26

As you know, the fluctuations in the international currency exchange rates can yield unique perspectives on the "performance" of gold -- depending on one's place of residence (local currency). What has been seen in Canada is a subdued (to put it mildly) version of what everyone in Turkey already knows quite well. (see URL)

Great discussion topic!


The CoinGuyORO, Cavan Man#6644712/5/01; 12:20:13

I appreciated the response. I wasn't looking for a recap of the LTCM debacle(too painful), and the ensuing FED and Fred reliquification model, but your effort was a great read. I believe I've read almost every post you've put up on this forum, and detail is something, I've never found lacking in your posts. Thanks for taking the time.

I was one of those market participants who wasn't too happy with the Fed Policy(fall 98), and the whipsaw ride I enjoyed through July of 99. FWIW, I agree with your "In short" statement. Since then, I've been net short the market, but playing the techs on rallys. This has definately been a traders market.

I've read many an analyst who has used "should have" and "could have" when referring to Fed Policy, this seems to be the norm as of late, any consideration for a "stable" monetary policy in this environment, seems a mute point. Reliquification, with a lagging market policy doesn't make for stability in anyones book, unless you're a speculator.

I also read with interest your conclusions on the Europeans misallocation of capital during this period. I've considered this to be the case all along, but I look forward to examining the facts as the US growth machine chugs on 4 cylinders instead of 8. Will(has) the rest of the world caught our cold, or will it adapt and move on.

I guess I could just go with the flow, and say we've bottomed, but at this time, I just don't see the evidence.

Cavan Man: since when is your opinion a rant, FWIW, I always enjoy your posts, I didn't consider this last one to be anything but stellar.

gotta run, and get some lunch...

take care all,

The CoinGuy

Cavan ManThanks ORO#6644812/5/01; 12:45:46

Appreciate your ongoing analysis and thoughts. However, the scene from my perspective is FUBAR or approaching with great alacrity. What is desperately needed is a new monetary order. While Gates can keep building on DOS in the near term, I do not believe the same can be said for the USD/IMF.
OROcont. 2#6644912/5/01; 13:06:02

4. cont. (should have been put at "The artificial credit sucked resources away ...")

To summarize: A business/credit cycle consists of the following:

1. An artificial expansion of credit driven by interest rates set arbitrarily too low by a central bank foreign OR domestic.

Note: Domestic source credit expansion creates the most damage at home where its correction causes a loss of purchasing power of portfolios along with losses of income. Foreign sourced credit expansion brings the loss of portfolio assets onto the foreign lenders and retains the income and productive capacity at the investment target, bringing real incomes up at the investment target, and down at the inflation source (either through unemployment or lower real wages).

2. Artificial credit expansion allocates capital/producer resources away from actual cash flow producing industries to industries with unlikely/risky future cash flows. There, incomes rise and bring about further capital allocation to service the consumption of the new artificial income. The income is made available to consumers before they actually produce a product.

3. As capacity built with artificial credit expansion funding comes on-line, resources are rapidly stretched and labor and resource prices rise above plan, making much of the new capacity and some of the old loss making. At the same time, prices of the products fall as new supply produced by the new capacity hits the markets.

4. The loss making capacity is shut down or reduced, portfolio assets issued by the loss making capacity's owners lose some or all of their value, and the assets liquidated or their control reallocated by the creditors. The resource and labor draw by the loss making capacity is reduced or eliminated, lowering labor rates and producer goods pricing.

5. Margins in the rest of industry are returned to prior levels and are then improved as loss making industries shut down capacity, and input factor prices drop.

6. Some savings and remaining portfolio assets are spent by the unemployed along with a rise of real incomes for labor remaining employed which is now saving a greater portion of its income (thus final consumer product prices are lowered relative to income), and rise relative to producer goods, particularly fixed capital and equivalents.

7. New investment returns into action as operations resume profitability with lower producer goods prices and capacity growth and with lower debt burdens on liquidated capacity. Labor is reallocated to where it was short before, and producer goods formerly lacking in investment due to higher margins and lower capital goods (and services) costs.

The key to understanding the cycle is that what makes a portion of credit expansion artificial is that the allocation is not of actual savings out of income but of claims to the same savings issued by people who did not have the income. Only actual savings can be invested. The result of the attempt to invest non-existent savings is a rise in the price of existing saved resources.

This makes the new businesses into loss makers and causes the lenders to lose some or all of their investment in proportion to double the "missing" savings because of the multiple waste: the production of unwanted product, the consumption of more valuable factors by the new production of unwanted goods, and the consumption of capital resources in malinvestments that could have been used to invest in production of products that were in demand.

The solution to the problem is composed of (1) the release of labor and other resources from consumption by loss making business, (2) reallocation of REAL income to those who earn it, (3) increased savings by remaining income earners, (4) readjustment of relative prices of labor, consumer goods, producer goods, capital equipment/services, debt burdens and financial income. The results are higher profits to strong businesses, reduced overall debt burdens, and either enough savings to build capacity for the producer goods in short supply or to build capital equipment that reduces their consumption, or in the case of no new savings, enough reduction of loss making capacity to return to a balance of producer goods and final product sales.

R Powell*********Contest Entry*********#6645012/5/01; 13:20:31

Alan Greenspan, Maestro or Music Man?

The answer calls for a judgement of actions and decisions. It requires an
estimate or opinion of past performance. By what criterion shall we judge the Fed.
chairman? Can extenuating circumstances mollify criticism or enhanse praise?

I submit that Alan Greenspan, when appointed chairman, became one of the
most powerful players in an ongoing game already in progress. There were
economic forces, conditions and circumstances working and evolving in the
framework of an incomprehensibly complex global web. The game was already
afoot with the rules predetermined, some apparent, some not; some adhered to and
some not. Tough conditions, indeed.

Has Greenspan, as Maestro, welded those forces at his disposal in such a way
so as to ensure or produce a prosperous and healthy economy? Or acted so as to
provide the environment necessary for one? Is this then the criterion by which we
should judge the Fed. chairman? If so, shall we judge by this prosperous and
healthy economic standard only? That is, does this end justify what some may
consider the unethical or deceitful means employed to attain this desired economic

I submit that Alan Greenspan, as Music Man (flim-flam man), well knows the
importance that public confidence plays in the state of the economy. Although a
view of the total economic struggle or anything close to a complete
comprehension of it are assets not entirely available to him, still Alan Greenspan
knows that the appearance of control, instilling confidence, must always be
maintained. Indeed, "The essence of financial distress is loss of confidence."
(Manias, Panics and Crashes, Kindleberger)

Whether led with the deft hand of a master or the deceit of a confidence man or
with a combination of both, we are, none the less, now approaching the end of
2001. The question now becomes that which great men have asked throughout our
history, "How fares the Union?" Specifically, in our judgement of the Fed.
chairman, do we have a prosperous and healthy economy?

My opinion is that we do not. I believe that the economy has suffered an
implosion from the bursting of an irrational, speculative bubble. This is not
unique to economic history but still very painful. It may have been prevented with
monetary restraint. The overvaluation of stock prices has begun a corrective
phase. The ongoing creation of fiat money (debt), the cost of its creation and
supporting its continued existence remains. The excess use of credit has created a
disruption of the economic forces or the invisible hand which normally acts to
stabilize the monetary system. The expansion and uplifting of one nation's fiat
currency to that of the world's reserve may precipitate more unforeseen and
undesireable results. Only time will reveal the potential dangers of this global
monetary (credit) explosion. Greenspan's term in office has witnessed the bursting
of a speculative stock price bubble, will it also preside over a debt (credit) crisis?
Excess speculation always implies credit. "Credit was the Siamese twin of
speculation; they were born at the same time and exhibited the same nature;
inextricably linked, they could never be totally separated." (Devil Take The
Hindmost, Edward Chancellor).

My verdict is that Alan Greenspan has presided over a great speculative mania
during which that which we call money has completely escaped his control. In that
this event, even though it created temporary prosperity for some, did not ensure or
produce a prosperous and healthy economy but instead has sown the seeds of a
monetary crisis, I find Alan Greenspan's perforance a dismal failure. However, it
is also my belief that monetary control was never within the scope of his powers.
Perhaps this is as it should be.

Alan Greenspan is neither "Maestro" nor "Music Man" and is exonerated as
the sole perpetrator of our present "grim" situation. Although most influencial in
the unfolding of these events, no one man, no matter how influencial, can control
them entirely.

As to his handling of the present situation- specifically his reaction of
providing more unbridled liquidity- I believe he is guilty of attempting to preserve
the present unbalanced situation by further endangering the future. In this, he has
assumed the role of lender of last resort, controller of central banks. " Central
banks should act one way (lending freely) to halt the panic, but another (leaving
the market to its own devices) to improve the chances of preventing future panics.
Actuality inevitably dominates contingency. Today wins over tomorrow."
(Manias, Panics, and Crashes, Charles Kindleberger).

In conclusion, I perceive Alan Greenspan as more an unwitting accomplice in
a rigged game than a master player or confidence man. Our present economic
situation appears to have evolved to the brink of a monetary or credit crisis which
could precipitate a global systemic meltdown. Should this occur or appear likely
to occur, confidence in all man-made paper assets, born from obligation or credit,
will be destroyed. This confidence is based on perceived value or the future
fulfillment of another's obligation or performance. Any crisis in confidence
destroys all value of these so-called assets. Real or tangible possessions will retain
value although that value, expressed as a number of monetary units, will change.
Needless to say, the most widely acceptable or recognised store of value
throughout history has been and is precious metals-- silver and gold!! Gold will
always remain aloof from and immune to the economic follies of man.

OROcont. 3#6645112/5/01; 13:53:48

Cavan Man and Coin Guy, thanks for comments.

5. The current scenario is that of increased savings caused by the following:
a. Great fear of job losses, greater desire for insurance coverage causing a rise in direct savings through debt reduction or actual savings (that includes insurance premiums). This is occurring both here and abroad.
b. Labor in marginally productive or loss making industry is being released onto the labor market, thus greatly reducing their net negative productive value (thus reducing wasteful portions of industrial consumption) and reducing consumption overall.
c. Removal of retirees and some employee portfolio assets from bankrupt companies such as Polaroid, steel (Bethlehem and LTV), Tech (Lucent etc.), Enron, forcing back to work or to reduce consumption funded from punctured investment.
d. An end to employee "hoarding". Where employees were held "just in case" for the rebound in the economy, thus preventing the rebound from happening (it can't happen until labor moves from twiddling thumbs and "make work" to actual productive work.
e. The 20% drop in real financial assets going into end September was sufficient to dampen financial asset source consumption by business.
f. The bulk of the tax rebate was saved rather than consumed. The lower rates will help quite a few people save more rather than escape taxes.

Considering all this, I expect to see the savings numbers improve substantially in Oct. and those for Sep to improve as well. My guess is that savings rates were at the 8% level for the Sep quarter, and would probably sit just under 10% for this quarter.

Flows into MMFs and Mutuals show a very strong pickup over the past couple of months and indicate a peak flow. Furthermore, banks are being stuffed with cash, forcing them to buy short bonds off the market. In short: interest rates are falling because people and businesses are saving more than other people and businesses are borrowing, the Fed is behind the curve on this one.


POWERFUL, WELL-HONED & ERUDITE SKILLS!! AND THIS IS GOING TO BE A GOOD ONE. . . . . . . You know what, Dark horse, I've been thinking what you've been thinking.

We're due for a contest and it would be productive to tap the collective wisdom around this noble
Table. I agree.

But how to break the psychic dam and get the ideas to flow?

Nothing like a challenge to match the quality of the poster and lurkers present. This idea came to
me while having
lunch today and browsing over the latest GRANT’S Interest Rate Observer. It seems that one of
James Grant's
friends -- a fellow named Paul L. Kasreil who does economic research for Northern Trust Co. --
posed a most
far-reaching question. One that is making the rounds among people who talk markets as well as
those who enjoy the
same as a worthy pre-occupation.

The question is this:

------------------------------------ Alan Greenspan: Maestro or Music Man? ----------------------------

The book, "Maestro", was the subject of a great deal of conversation here when it came out
several months ago and
opinion was pretty much divided on it -- some thought it characterized a master at the peak of his
powers. Others
saw it as a whitewash of a Fed chairman who simply injected liquidity willy-nilly at a time when
the world had no
where to turn but the dollar. Some called him genius. Others called him lucky. Still others called
him confused --
pumping money into the system at one turn and deriding "irrational exuberance" the next.

But Maestro or Music Man?? Now that's intriguing, and very much worth a contest.

For those of you scratching your head at the choice, I will remind you that The Music Man, one
of America's
favorite all-time musicals, is the story of band director/con artist. The following from famed
critic, Clifford Ridley
captures the Music Man for our purposes:

"Bierko is a younger Hill than Preston, yet with his slicked-back hair, his self- dramatizing
gestures and his roving
eyes constantly scouting for trouble, he's every inch the two-bit con man. As advertised, he
delivers Hill's fervid
patter with dash and musicality; and at the end, when he's unmasked by the unconditional love of
a good woman,
he's quite touching. And he has a splendid foil in Luker, who sings Marian's arching melodies in
a limpid soprano
and persuasively metamorphoses from chilly skeptic to loving co-conspirator. She also has a fine
way of saying
"Ssssh" - an admonition, fortunately, that this ebullient production mostly ignores."

And then here's a passage from the preface to Bob Woodward's "Maestro" which more than
adequately captures the
essence of the Maestro side of the coin:

"Greenspan is slated to remain chairman of the Federal Reserve until 2004. Not only is he a
major figure in the
world's economic past, he is central to its future. He has been frank enough to stand before the
new and amazing
economic circumstances that he helped create and in the end declare them a mystery. It is
impossible to account fully
for the continuing high growth, record employment, low inflation and high stock market."

And, toward the end of this important book:

"Greenspan also represents something more than the confidence wing of the American
Personality. He stands at the
point where the country's eternal optimism meets the country's abiding suspicion that something
will go wrong. . .
That fear also creates a kind of excitement and anticipation.Greenspan stands at the crossroads of
optimisim and
pessimism. Each of us is a character in the nation's great economic soap opera; Greenspan is
both director and

So, the question before the table is this:

***** "Alan Greenspan, Maestro or Music Man?" *****

Lovable Con-Man or Brilliant Fed Chairman?

I will leave with another thought of Mr. Kasreil -- as I think the computer cannot be taken out of
the present
equation without missing a major part of the analysis:

"Economics how do we measure that? Well, I can tell you there has been a very increase in
productivity, at least at
my shop. When I joined the Northern Trust over 15 years ago, it took three senior economists
and three research
assistants about two weeks to come out with an inaccurate economic forecast, and with this
laptop, I can do it all by
myself in one day."

The world, I know, is not spinning any faster than it used to be but who among us would deny
that it is. . . . . . . .
.So Maestro or Music? You be the judge.

Each entry must address the question in sufficient length but no more than is absolutely
necessary to make the point
-- the eternal bane of the writer. An appropriate link is acceptable. The contest will be judged not
on the choice you
make but on the erudition and argumentative skills used to make your case. Please surround your
entry with stars as
shown. The winner will get a lucky French Angel gold coin -- the one they say Napoleon carried
throughout his
campaigns until he lost it . . . . .the day before Waterloo. As Darkhorse suggests the entry-post
must also include
some reference as to what the future might bring by the end of the year (for posterity's sake). As
always, the post
must conclude with how all of this relates to gold and gold ownership -- and it is there that the
worm turns, where
the contest will decided. The runners up -- two of them -- will receive a Mexican Azteca silver

First time posters will receive a one-ounce U.S. Silver Eagle but in order to claim the price you
must indicate that
you are a first-time poster with Jill Snyder ( This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ). The post must be an entry into
the main contest --
"Alan Greenspan, Maestro or Music Man." First time posts in the price guessing contest (see
below) do not count
toward the Silver Eage Prize. Pls include your current mailing address.

The posting contest will go from this moment through Sunday, December 9, 2001 when
midnight graces the purple
mountain majesties.

* * * * * * * * * * *

Good luck all. May the best poster win.

USAGOLDThanks and Good Luck. . . #6645312/5/01; 14:22:55

Good luck to all who enetered our price guessing contest. Next time we'll take Gandalf's advice and make the increments 10¢.

By the way, thanks Gandalf for running a very successful contest. I think we all enjoyed the past few days and appreciate your efforts.

Lots of entries. . . . .

R PowellDerivatives#6645412/5/01; 15:12:21

From today's USAGOLD report, on the subject of massive, delta-hedged derivative positions- "It encompasses nearly every aspect of the price fixing mechanism within the economy."
I can offer a partial answer and one book reference in response to your client's question, "Where did this start?"
From "Devil Take the Hindmost" by Edward Chancellor, page 10, comes the following,
"All manner of financial products and services were traded on the Amsterdam Exchange (a New Exchange was founded in 1610): commodities, current exchange, shareholdings, maritime insurance... (it was) a money market, a finance market, (and) a stock exchange. Naturally, the Exchange became a crucible for speculative activities."
And further describing this Exchange's activities,
"Stock options-- which gave the buyer the right, but unlike the futures contract not the obligation, to buy or sell shares at a fixed price during the contract period-- were also traded on the Exchange. ... Futures, options, and ducation shares are examples of what we call derivatives, namely financial contracts which derive their value from an underlying asset, such as a share."

A ducation, Chancellor explains, were shares valued at only one-tenth normal value. These existed in 1610 in Amsterdam and their purpose was to allow the less wealthy to participate in the game (lower stakes). This immediately reminded me of the Mini-S+P contract valued at one-fifth the normal contract and, of course, initiated so that even poor suckers could enter the casino.
Derivatives are not new. The speed of computer assisted trading is relatively new and has been applied to derivative trading. This increased power has created a situation wherein a major "meltdown" can (has the potential to) occur in very tight, small timeframe. The enhansed power of the computer has also provided the ability to complicate these oftentimes offseting positions to infinity. Maybe the most powerful computer wins!
Chancellor's book is among the best I've read (slowly with a ruler and pen for underlining) and studied. Very well written and also includes hundreds of footnotes. Thanks Mr. Chancellor, wherever you are.

Andúril"the Fed is behind the curve on this one."#6645512/5/01; 15:23:04

ORO, you are talking out of both sides of your mouth. You have in recent past been quite vocal that the Fed be abolished, and now here you are seen expressing what is tantamount to an endorsement for proactive Fed action.

Get it together.

OROAndúril - Still no Fed#6645612/5/01; 15:54:08

I know it sounds as if I am advocating a very active Fed.

I am not. I am saying only that the Fed, in order to do its inherently impossible job, must change interest rates much more quickly than it does and to particular levels that I can only guess at. I can say that the Fed seems to have overdone it by far already (my preliminary figs for the past two months, updated today indicate that a 1/2% hike may soon be in order, if the time is not there yet). I hope to see a defacto reversal of policy soon.

I still think the world would be better off with no central banks at all, particularly the US would be better off without the Fed.

There is still no hope for a bubble/crash free economic progression so long as the Fed and its counterparts exist. And there is yet to be a net importing country that can cause an actual deflationary trend within its own boundaries under a fiat regime even when carrying out a deficit credit supply demand balance.

site stewardNew Stein (click URL)#6645712/5/01; 16:06:43

My overdue Puplava update is on the way.


site stewardWhen you live in a row house, should you worry when your neigbor is burning?#6645812/5/01; 17:39:46

--------BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Argentina on Wednesday scrambled for cash to keep making its debt payments as credit agencies warned that the government's banking controls had effectively violated its decade-long policy pegging the peso currency on a par with the U.S. dollar.

...But local equities traders were encouraged by the possibility Argentina might ``dollarize,'' or scrap the peso completely and replace it with the U.S. currency.--------

Sure. And why NOT?? After all, it's just a "name" when you REALLY know what a dollar is.

The neighbor is burning, and yes, you should worry. Better still, take action. Diversify out of dollars and into gold.


site stewardYour financial world is in transition.#6645912/5/01; 18:01:29

Are you sleeping through it, or are you taking adaptave actions?

--------NEW YORK, Dec 5 (Reuters) - It's been a wild ride for the U.S. Treasuries market the past six weeks, and the nauseating minute-by-minute price swings may not end any time soon.

...Events have slammed the bond market this year -- from the Federal Reserve slashing interest rates to the lowest level in 40 years, to the Sept. 11 attacks and a Treasury Department decision to cancel future issuance of 30-year bonds.

Some traders said they have not seen sessions this volatile since the 1998 Russian debt crisis and near collapse of giant hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management.

...In addition, the recent meltdown of Enron Corp.may have forced the giant energy trader to liquidate interest rate holdings, exacerbating the downward spiral in Treasuries and interest rate futures.

At the same time, trading desks are reluctant to take major positions before year end to preserve profits in this year's fixed-income rally. But as selling accelerated on Wednesday, dealers jumped in to protect this year's gains and bonuses.---------

Hopfully you're seen the signs (of which these are but a few). The rest is up to you.


Solomon WeaverA little off topic post for Gandalf....Aragorn....Gimli#6646012/5/01; 18:47:06

Tolkien Would Have Hated 'Rings' Film -Biographer
Updated 6:06 PM ET December 5, 2001

By Mike Collett-White

LONDON (Reuters) - J.R.R. Tolkien would have hated the forthcoming Hollywood adaptation of his magical ``The Lord of the Rings,'' but millions of movie-goers around the world are unlikely to agree, Tolkien's biographer said Wednesday.

Michael White, whose book about the Oxford professor and creator of the trilogy set in the mysterious Middle Earth comes out this week, predicted the film would even out-sell fantasy flick ``Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone.''

``The Harry Potter film has broken the box office records,'' White said in a telephone interview. ``But I am going to put my head on the block and predict that 'The Lord of the Rings' will just pip it.''

``The Fellowship of the Ring,'' the first in a trilogy of films based on Tolkien's best-loved novels, premieres in London Dec. 10 amid intense hype over its box office potential.

Ironically its creator, a mild-mannered British academic who fought in the trenches in France during World War One, would have loathed the whole project.

``I think he would have just closed his eyes to it,'' White said of Tolkien, who died in 1973 at age 81.

``He had a hatred of all things Hollywood and did not believe in the idea of imitation being the best form of flattery. As a writer I find that staggering.''

The dark tales about Frodo Baggins the intrepid hobbit became bestsellers only late in life for the pipe-smoking family man, a fact Tolkien is unlikely to have regretted.

``Being a cult figure in one's own lifetime,'' he is quoted as saying ``I am afraid is not at all pleasant. In my case at any rate it makes me feel extremely small and inadequate.''

``The Lord of the Rings'' trilogy and ``The Hobbit'' have sold 160 million copies between them and Tolkien has been voted the 20th century's most popular writer in numerous polls.

Comparisons between the two big-budget films based on best-selling books of sorcery and dragons and released almost simultaneously are inevitable.

And while some members of the Tolkien family choose to have nothing to do with the Hollywood adaptation, the stakes for the movie industry are high.

The Tolkien series will cost an estimated $300 million to make. The film ``Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone,'' meanwhile, has already netted over $200 million in North America alone.

J.K. Rowling, author of four Harry Potter adventures which sold a total 100 million copies in just four years, is reported to be on track to become the world's first billionaire writer.

White said the comparisons had been overdone, and that the books upon which the two films are based differ significantly.

``The Harry Potter books are much more rooted in everyday life while 'The Lord of the Rings' is set in a totally alien world with no direct link to the real world at all.''

But the competition between the two films is likely to benefit both sides in the long run.

``A lot of Harry Potter film and book fans are getting interested in 'The Lord of the Rings,''' White said.

Solomon WeaverNewmont VS Indexes #6646112/5/01; 19:00:22

Just seeing if this link works from the forum
HoratioMid East#6646212/5/01; 19:37:10

I am happy to see cool heads in Israel even while under stress.My first instinct when I saw Sharon coming here was he is taking the opportunity to get U.S. troops involved
in Mid East.IMHO the most dangerous thing we could do.I saw two high level Israel officials take the same position that U.S. troops should not be there at this time.Israel should take out terrorists and not worry about Arafat.I don't think he is the brains in that bunch anyway.Either he can control his troops or he can't.If he can't he needs to go.Without him someone will have to surface as spokesman or spokeswomen.I am no fan of Sharon,but Arafat was a fool not to take Baraks offer,it simply shows someone else is pulling his strings.
I am reminded of a cartoon I once saw ,it involved a hitchhiker who wouldent take a ride from a car that stopped some distance away ,he reasoned, maybe the next one will stop closer!Arafat is akin to the hitchiker.
I would like to see a Palastinian spokeswomen come forward,I believe her name is Ashwari(I hope I spelled her name right).She seems to be a level headed intelligent spokeswomen.

CanuckEmail sent to Bobby Godsell#6646312/5/01; 19:48:34

Mr. Godsell,

I am a man with modest income and modest education and I feel slightly intimidated to send you a note with a question. I believe what drives me to this is the fact that you and I can share this note as equals, 2 men with an
interest in gold. I have held gold in my hand as a miner and now I 'hold' gold as an investment. The alluring magnetism of gold is perplexing. I am sure this brings us to certain parallels.

During the late '90's I watched the amazing acceleration of paper assets and

became concerned about the stability of the world's financial sytem(s). In 1999 I bought shares of Franco-Nevada; the selection of FN was based on my interest in it's royalty program.

So time comes to present day, my knowledge of gold has improved enormously and I watch in awe the 'battle' between your firm and Newmont for the ownership of Normandy.

I know very little of the 3 corporations (AU, NEM, NRDY) but allow me to make a point; because of my loyalty to Franco, I have taken sides with Newmont on the grounds that Franco approached Newmont to form the largest
'unhedged' gold mining company in the world. Numerous commentary discuss a central theme, that is, a war is emerging between the 'hedged' and the 'unhedged' and as a whole 'hedging' is unwinding in the gold industry.

In my studies of commodities I have surmissed that prudent 'hedging' strategies will enhance profitability in a declining market. Once a base, a low if you will, has been formed these hedges need to be unwound to
participant in a rising market. My belief that gold has bottomed then re-inforces my interests in Franco.

I quote from Franco-Nevada's 2001 Annual Report: Outlook for Gold

"Gold demand exceeds supply by 1000 tons annually. The shortfall has been made up by Central Bank selling and loans to producers who pre-sell their production. These Central Bank sources of supply could possibly go on for
another 5 to 8 years or until faith in paper currencies erode. The US trade deficit is unsustainable at US$400 billion annually. Falling stock prices and interest rates could shatter confidence and lead to a flight to gold.
The best indicator of higher commodity prices is a sustained period where prices are below the all-in costs of production. This situation currently exists in the gold industry."

Gold has such a complex history and has had the role of keeping paper money honest. It is indeed sad that some modern governments wish to extinguish this through alledged foul means. It is also alledged that corruption runs
down through certain government ranks to the owners and senior management of certain gold producers. I do not know if these allegations are true.

This gold war will end in the not-to-distant future. The world in the last few years has become very unstable and volatile. The outcome as I see it will end in one of 2 ways; gold will regain its monetary status and will
return to buoy financial markets or secondly, the outcome renders gold as a 'barbaric metal'. I ask you Sir, what then keeps paper honest, what then serves as asset of reserve without lien?

Rumours run wild of a Barrick/Anglogold relationship. Barrick's motives and direction are difficult to comprehend and thus I find it improbable that I would support Barrick.

Anglogold will play a massive role in the future direction of gold and dispite the infinite complexities of gold, Anglogold's next few moves will point clearly to the answer to my simple question.

Does Anglogold support or not support gold in its historical and traditional role?

Dear Mr X,

I am very glad that you have emailed me. One of the best parts of my job, and from which I have leaened a great deal about gold, investment and the company for which I work is just this type of communication.

Perhaps the most direct way I can respond to your question is to offer you my 'formula' for a sound gold market. It goes like this:

1. Gold companies must in the first instance end irresponsible and wealth destroying over production of gold. New mine production in the period 1985
to 2000 rose be a staggering 54% or 900 tonnes PER ANNUM. Much of this was loss making or marginal gold, only supported by hedged prices. AngloGold has done its share. Since 1998 we have closed or sold some 4.3 million
ounces of annual production, of which I would estimate, at least 3,00 million ounces has come outof the market altogether.
2. Producers should hedge responsibly. Our hedging policy is to sell forward UP TO 50% of five years of production. We have never reached that limit. IN fact because of present market circumstances, and because we
think the price is likely to move up, this year we have reduced gold sold forward from nearly 18 million ounces to just over 14 million. Over the next five years 19 million ounces of production are unhedged (and remember
that this year we have sold some 6 million ounces over the five year period.
3. Producers should invest in their product, which in my mind is both investment gold (coins, bars etc) and what I would describe as 'value jewellery' as is available in the East, all 22 and 24 carat, sold by gold content with a re-purchase agreement. If we could rally every major producer around these three objectives our industry will have a great future.



(Thoughts on replies?)


Max RabbitzLame excuses by Enron's auditor, Arthur Andersen#6646412/05/01; 20:08:37

New Economy Accounting gets caught. How much more is out there? A snippit:

"Take, for instance, those now-notorious "Special Purpose Entities" (SPEs) that Enron used to accumulate off-balance
sheet liabilities. Berardino complains that in accounting for them, the auditors’ hands were tied. "As the rules stand
today," he writes, "sponsoring companies can keep the
assets and liabilities of SPEs off their consolidated financial statements, even though they retain a majority of the related risks and rewards. . . .

Uh, no. Rather, it's time to apply the current rules correctly. In fact, that's what Enron finally did on Nov. 8 (prodded no doubt, by Andersen) when it restated its last four years worth of financials by—you guessed it--consolidating the SPEs onto its balance sheet.

You just gotta know there is a lot more of this accounting going on out there.

Cavan ManUS Equities#6646512/5/01; 20:13:48

The Wisdom of Aristotle (sure miss him)

I will never forget Aristotle suggesting I reconsider my investment in BEARX as in his opinion, the markets were very likely to continue inflating with everything else denominated in USD$. I am happy I took his advice.
Max RabbitzCanuck on Bobby Godsell#6646612/5/01; 20:44:07

Very nice of him to personally answer your Email. I wonder what his definition of irresponsible hedging would be?
HoratioA Race to the Bottom,Argentina and South Africa#6646712/05/01; 20:50:37

Argentina sold thier gold and bought Dollars and the Dollar got stronger'so whats the problem?
What they forgot was who they trade with.When you trading partner has a weak currency he has a trade advantage over you.The second part of the problem was when this happened with the old currency ,they could simply devalue enough to get trade back in balance and they still had thier gold to maintain confidence in thier currency.Now when the Dollar gets stronger thier exports dry up .They are at the mercy of the Dollar and U.S. policy.
One should only link currency with ones majority trade partners or maintain your independence with gold.
Gold is Freedom.
South Africa is reducing the labor cost of thier mines by devaluing the Rand.What they should have done was back the Rand with Gold and Attract investment into thier country and lessen thier dependence on the mines.
Both countrys would be better off with gold backing thier currencys.

Black BladeAnniversary and Words to Remember#6646812/05/01; 20:58:20

Today the DOW ripped past 10,000 and NASDAQ blasts through 2,000. And what a better day to accomplish this feat. It was exactly 5 years ago today that Alan Greenspan uttered those two famous words - "IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE." And what was the DOW then? The DOW was roughly 6,534 when those famous words were spoken. There is no real fundamental support for the current surge in share prices as earnings continue to fall, debt is at record levels and valuations are at extremely absurd levels. Yet the stock markets surge forward on some minor data from a better than expected NAPM services report.

I have 2 words that are not so famous but are equally important when all is said and done - "CORPORATE EARNINGS." Yep, that's right - "CORPORATE EARNINGS." Earnings are still falling. PE valuations are at record highs and rocketing higher. This is a result of both declining earnings and higher share prices. As the old lady in the old Wendy's commercials used to say - "Where's the beef?" Trolls like James Cramer and Larry Kudlow would argue that stocks are a bargain and yet I do not see it. These are the same Trolls that said we would see a recovery last quarter, this quarter, well maybe next year, oh well maybe the second half of next year - so jump in now and buy stocks because it is patriotic and don't miss the rally when it comes.

I think that we still have too many unknowns in this market and a very dismal outlook on "CORPORATE EARNINGS." We now see oil moving higher as now even Russia has joined other non-OPEC oil producers and has agreed to cut production. Even as this winter is getting colder (not as cold as last year), more energy is being used. The economy is tanking and the result is lower petroleum demand. Yet the oil producers are determined to maintain a trading range between $22.00/bbl to $25.00/bbl. These higher prices act as tax that hits the corporate bottom line. I see no fundamental reasoning for a surging stock market yet. A couple more quarters of declining earnings and a few more large additions to the growing "Bone Pile" and we may see the surging stock markets unravel.

- Black Blade

Black BladeIMF Dashes Argentina's Cash Hopes#6646912/5/01; 21:05:30


BUENOS AIRES/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday dashed Argentina's hopes for a much-needed $1.3 billion loan, taking the South American nation closer to committing the biggest sovereign debt default in history.

Black Blade: Today Argentine courts ruled that the limitations on bank withdrawals were unconstitutional. It should also be noted that for the well connected (the wealthy and politicians) the rules did not apply. The Masters still rule over the Serfs.

Black BladeAngloGold withdraws Normandy fee arrangement#6647012/5/01; 21:10:33


SYDNEY, Dec 6 (Reuters) - South African miner AngloGold said on Thursday it had withdrawn arrangements to pay higher fees to brokers who rope in acceptances for its offer to acquire Normandy Mining Ltd (Australia:NDY.AX). AngloGold said the decision was made in light of rival bidder Newmont Mining Corp's (NYSE:NEM) application to the Australian Takeovers panel for a restraining order delaying the fee arrangements, and a deferral of Normandy's recommendation on its offer.

Black Blade: The soap opera continues like a bad episode of "Dallas."

Black BladeInsurer CNA Cuts 1,850 Jobs#6647112/5/01; 21:23:40

Insurer CNA Financial, Hit by Claims Linked to Terror Attacks, Cuts1,850 Jobs in Overhaul


CHICAGO (AP) -- CNA Financial Corp., hit hard by insurance claims linked to the World Trade Center attack, announced a restructuring Wednesday that will eliminate 1,850 jobs -- 10 percent of its work force. The nation's second-biggest business insurer said it is restructuring its property/casualty and life insurance operations, discontinuing its variable life and annuity business, consolidating real estate locations and making related job cuts nationwide.

Black Blade: These "Bones" are not insured and are sent off to the "Bone Pile." This is bad for yours truly as I have life insurance with these clowns.

Black BladeChile Codelco cuts copper output by 100,000 tonnes#6647212/5/01; 21:28:35


SANTIAGO, Chile, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Chile's state-owned Codelco, the world's No. 1 copper producer, on Wednesday announced a much-anticipated production cutback in a bid to prop up prices for the metal amid weak global demand.

Black Blade: Asarco has also announced that they too will cut production and layoff workers. Not to mention the cut in production of by-product Gold and Silver.

Black BladeAgere Systems Cuts 950 More Jobs#6647312/5/01; 21:32:35


ALLENTOWN, Pa. (AP) - Agere Systems will cut another 950 jobs, or 7.8 percent of its work force, in New Jersey and Pennsylvania in response to slumping demand for semiconductors, the company said Wednesday.

Black Blade: More nonessential "Bones" cast upon the ever-growing "Bone Pile."

sector@site steward...About the Bond Volatility and JPMC's IRDs#6647412/5/01; 21:34:10

Your last post referred to increasing interest rate volatility...not seen since the 1998 financial crisis. Recall that JPMC is short volatility on $20 trillion in intrest rate derivatives. Who in today's small world of big bankers is NOW willing to take those low volatility trades?...Trillions of dollars worth. The cost of derivatives is set by implied volatility so it will require far more value at risk capital today to cover those trades that were originally acquired during quiescent times. It actually gets better...

JPMC now recalculates their Enron exposure to be $3 billion. Perhaps we should plot the rising number much like grandmothers in Florida do to plot approaching hurricane postions. The last word on the Enron storm seems many weeks in the future.

Mr. Greenspan can't escape this one. Self appointed Congressional "fact finders" are on the loose at Enron...they have the full scent. The body count stands at 21,000 Enron employees and their 401k plans. Those people have NOTHING to lose as such, they are a dangerous force.

The SEC is suddenly speaking about pro forma earnings. The Federal Reserve's spin soldiers are uncharacteristically mute just now. During LTCM the chairman was out front, visible, calling Wall Street conferences, reportedly claiming he had $150 billion to work with.

This time around $150 billion is chump change.

Black BladeNiSource to shut Indiana power plant, cut 112 jobs#6647512/5/01; 21:40:15


MERRILLVILLE, Ind., Dec 5 (Reuters) - Diversified gas utility NiSource Inc. (NYSE:NI) said on Wednesday it will shut down an Indiana power plant, cutting about 112 jobs, as it streamlines operations amid declining demand for electricity.

Black Blade: This is just one of several dozen recently announced smaller layoffs that gets little attention that is sweeping across the US (and the Globe). The "Bone Pile" keeps growing and consumer confidence keeps falling along with the axes. Again I say get out of debt, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, get enough cash for several months expenses, get food stores and dry goods. If anything you will sleep easier and be secure in the knowledge that come what may you have taken an important step toward independence.

Black BladeForbes Body Count#6647612/5/01; 21:45:05

And yet a couple little "Piles" of "Bones" added to the growing "Bone Pile." A recovering and robust economy? I think not!
uponroofCanuck#6647712/5/01; 22:26:54

Thanks for sharing your correspondence with Mr Godsell. I found his words less than convincing to be sure. A few thoughts on the situation if I may:

Anglosoldout being a healthy corporation, had no reason to engage in hedging, especially to the insane degree they persued.

Hedging utilized by leveraged, streamlined miners to carry cash flow while the POG is down is almost excusable (DROOY). What Anglosoldout was/is doing is far from necessary to supplement 'survival' cash flow.

They have turned producing physical gold into producing IOU notes, restricting gold's intrinsic value through limiting the upside potential. This takes the heart out of gold. They will argue that in doing so, the downside potential has likewise been neutralized. Yes, but now you are not producing a commodity which balances supply demand forces, you are producing denominated debt notes.

Neutralizing potential, in either direction, also removes incentive to be competitive within your market. Pro product bias and building inventive advantages to increase efficient production are lost. In exchange, more inventive banking strategies are found. Just as the heart is taken out of the gold, the heart for mining is also lost.

When these paper exchanges are done on the extravegent scale we see at Anglosoldout it negatively affects the entire market value of gold. All that gold in the ground being bastardized (before ever seeing the light of day) weighs heavily on above ground values. Anglosoldout is nothing less than the enemy of higher POG.

This recent 'conversion' foisted on us with embarassing lack of believability is pure desperation. Years of hedging, under different more favorable conditions, has taken away the heart for mining. It was all too easy to hedge a flatlined POG. They grew to enjoy it and exploit it. In doing so the future was soldout.

Yes unhedged ounces (by the tonnes) are needed to balance out the incredible 40 some percent of gold production hedged forward for 4-5 years. The horrendous misjudgment in excessive hedging is a clear indication of very poor management. As this goes down, and NDY G*dwilling rejects their offer, the CEO will be held responsible.

What we are seeing now may be the first signs of his demise?

John Doe@Oro#6647812/5/01; 22:37:45

Can there even be real savings without real money? I would have to reply with an emphatic no. I believe this concept is the whole crux of the matter.

The terminal flaw in the current arrangement is that real effort, work, genius, goods, life, time, blood, sweat, and tears are ultimately traded everywhere as a matter of state policy, for an easily manipulable fiction, i.e., the Euro, the Yen, and especially the US dollar. Thus, the bulk of theory and calculation developed from prior monetary periods where real savings were stored and exchangeable for real money are of dubious utility because that theory was developed under a system where the unit of measure was a fixed, physical constant, if at least for a time. Money doesn't necessarily have to be gold or silver, though these have been acceptable and well used in the past. Money does have to be something instead of nothing, and preferably something quite tangible and relatively rare, characteristics which enhance the somethingness of money.

Following a period of confusion and oscillation, perhaps short or perhaps long, I believe the current global arrangement will converge on some combination of physical slavery and collapse. Although the initial something takers are a small and privileged group, and they would prefer to keep it that way (excepting for their own human greed and lust of power), sooner or later more and more of the remaining participants in the fiction will realize their error (or at the very least that the system seems to "work" less and less well for them ) and will also see themselves as equally (or more!) deserving of something for nothing. The initial something takers must then respond either by reluctantly adding more participants to their group, further burdening the remaining something producers, or the something takers must further physically coerce some or all of the remaining something producers into continuing as nothing receivers in order to rebalance the system. Eventually, the system becomes all or nearly all something takers (nothing producers). Since human beings cannot, in fact, live on nothing, collapse is inevitable.

Ploys like switching to or adding new fictional moneys (the Euro) may extend the time this takes to play out or it may not. In a way, the Euro introduction would seem to either add more something takers to the mix or move the balance of benefits in their direction. Or perhaps the Euro is merely a desperate effort to keep the game afloat until the oil runs out? In any event, mathematically, morally, and sociologically, the system becomes more and more unstable and untenable, a la 1980's USSR, and terminates in Totalitarianism, collapse, or first one followed by the other.

WaveriderCan$ and Gold#6647912/6/01; 00:20:48

Galearis & Robot Guy:

In regard to your question about the relationship between the Can$ and the POG...I looked at this a while ago and "eye balled" some Ca$ and POG graphs juxtaposed, and visually it appeared that there was no correlation. But oh, yes...the eye can deceive...

I ran correlation coefficients tonight on the Can$ in US cents, and the POG in US$ from 1972 to 1992. (For anyone interested in statistics, I used SPSS, N=21, df=19, critical value=0.549 @0.01 significance).

I calculated a correlation coefficient of -.75 (A perfect correlation between the 2 variables is -1.0)
This means that yes, there is a significant correlation between the Can$ in US cents and the POG in US$ - as one rises, the other falls. (If they moved in the same direction, i.e. rise and fall together,the value would be +)

What's important to remember however, is that a correlation DOES NOT mean causation - in other words, a rising POG is NOT the cause/reason the CA$ moves lower, or vice versa.

I don't have the POG in Ca$ for that same time period. I'll try to find/calculate it I'll run these again in Ca$ values.

Hope this helps,

Canuck@ uponroof, Max, All#6648012/6/01; 04:59:29

I have taken a one-week break to 'suck back and reload'. I spent a little time calculating loses. I am embarrassed to release the number of thousands of dollars I have burnt chasing stocks. Flipping oil stocks, gold stocks even techs and biotechs have severely impacted return. I am not a gambler by nature but for some distorted reason I have taken to this on-line casino and I have paid the price.

I am not in serious financial straits but enough is enough, I have admitted to myself that I am 'no good' at investing. I try to justify my losses by looking at the Nasdaq which lets say for mathematical reasons has been 'halved' but I sense a bit of denial on my part. I should throw every dime into a 'balanced' fund and walk away and cancel all on-line access but I'm not at the 'action' point quite yet.

I have great respect for this forum, I have learned immensely for which I give thanks. I told my wife last night that I was sick and tired of losing money (although I didn't give her a figure; I only told her I was ahead of Nasdaq) and spilled my guts. I told her my biggest fear was being out of the (gold) explosion when it occured. So here I am, afraid to be out and going broke being in.

I have identified the problem, now to a solution.



Black BladeING to cut 15% U.S. workforce#6648112/6/01; 05:47:52


LONDON (CBS.MW) - Citing constraints from the weak U.S. economy, Dutch bank and insurer ING Group on Thursday set plans to cut 1,600 jobs in its U.S. operations.

Black Blade: More nonessential unproductive "Bones" off to the growing "Bone Pile." Looks to get worse going forward. It is now being reported that costs associated with the September attacks will be much higher due to unexpected costs in cleanup and lost business.

HenriCanuck#6648212/6/01; 06:06:02

Follow the trail.

Convert disposable income and savings for the long run into physical gold in hand. At least you will have a harder time losing that. I think the premiums now are not much more a hit than broker fees or fund loads.

You will not be leveraged other than the (and I believe this) substantial undervaluation assigned to gold.

Supposedly even the gold stocks will be crushed when the paper chips (or is it asbestos dust) finally settle. I still have faith in the trend toward closing hedges. and hold mostly non-hedged mines; however, I only use captive money for these trades (IRA).

I think that time will prove out physical's value but it will be a tough row to hoe to make it through the drought designed to bring all gold forward to strong hands.

When it trades for a paper price of $96 we will all wonder where. No real gold will be found at those prices...only paper promises.

Simplify. First get debt free. then save nuts for the long winter ahead...there is still time.

Took a profit on Harmony shares yesterday. And some end of year adjustments in oil stocks to counterbalance gains.

Black BladePrecious Metals Markets Update#6648312/6/01; 06:07:19


Other traders suggested that silver's steadiness could possibly be attributed to the metals arm of U.S. energy trader Enron (NYSE:ENE) unwinding positions before being sold off. "Enron could be a possible cause, but I don't really know. It's feasible, Enron may have had open market positions and got caught in the trap,'' one trader said. Enron's metals trading arm, Enron Metals Ltd, which predominately trades base metals, has had a relatively small business in precious metals since it acquired the precious metals arm of German energy group Metallgesellschaft AG.

In the platinum group metals (PGMs), palladium held firm and edged ever closer to the key $400.00/ounce barrier after soaring on TOCOM overnight as expectations of more supply disruption next year from top producer Russia fuelled the market. Spot palladium was indicated at $375.00/385.00 against $368.00/378.00 at the last close in New York. Russian exports of PGMs have been disrupted by bureaucratic delays in issuing annual export quotas and licenses, triggering anxiety among consumers as the year draws to a close. ``People are perceiving problems with Russia's supply and just positioning themselves accordingly rather than having problems at the beginning of the year,'' one trader said. In the platinum group metals (PGMs), palladium held firm and edged ever closer to the key $400.00/ounce barrier after soaring on TOCOM overnight as expectations of more supply disruption next year from top producer Russia fuelled the market.

Russian exports of PGMs have been disrupted by bureaucratic delays in issuing annual export quotas and licenses, triggering anxiety among consumers as the year draws to a close. ``People are perceiving problems with Russia's supply and just positioning themselves accordingly rather than having problems at the beginning of the year,'' one trader said.

Black Blade: It was rumored that Enron had been dabbling in the PM derivatives markets. Looks possible. Also I got an email from my friend Sergei. He maintains that the Russian PGM stockpiles are depleted. He says that the reports of Russian exports are "greatly exaggerated." He also noted that Norilsk Nickel has "temporarily" shut down some mining operations due to low metals prices. So there it is. It would appear that the Russians are again (or still) short of any significant PGM supply. Look for the TOCOM and NYMEX to default on PGM contracts again. The Japanese TOCOM managers have absolutely no honor and known to cheat investors, and as far as the NYMEX managers are concerned that is a given.

HenriApologies#6648412/6/01; 06:11:58

To all who expected to see me in New Orleans. Alas, it was not to be, and I sorely regret that I could not attend. Perhaps there will be another time.
HenriCut to the chase#6648512/6/01; 06:16:06

Black Blade's bone pile mounts increasing evidence that Ayn Rand's revolt could be underway. In "Atlas Shrugged", the prime movers revolted against all who fed upon their productivity.

These days the biggest hand to be fed is that of governance. Hmmm.

Prophesy so compelling

miner49erCanuck#6648612/6/01; 06:47:30

Good morning Canuck,

Your post reminded me of myself when you say, "I have admitted to myself that I am 'no good' at investing." I once lost a lot of money in gold stocks, oil stocks (no biotechs, though...). In fact, your whole post sounds strangely like an episode in my life. And I bet that there are not too few others on these forums who could say the same.

Other than commiserating, what can anyone offer of practical use? Most of it would be a mix of personal opinion, experience, and some conclusion. Much of this will sound right when it is offered, but it will also conflict with a bunch of other stuff that also sounds right. So at the end of the day, you have to go with what sets best with your comprehension of life at that moment. You and I will continue to make mistakes, but what will separate you or I from the fool will be an earnest quest to learn from them, and improve our decisions down the road. And "as iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another," hopefully the words of many diverse individuals here will sharpen us as much as they sometimes can confuse us.

Without wishing to sound trite, I would offer that the general mantra of this site, "buy physical gold," is the most prudent way to allocate your savings. How much? "As much as your understanding allows," is what FOA said, and with this I concur. You know all the reasons. Equities, debt, derivatives? If you do not have the instincts of the trader/speculator, you will probably always lose. I gathered you were trading, and not making long term investments because of your term "flipping."

Many think they have this ability, but their track record speaks otherwise. What they have is the fascination with the hunt, not the talent for hunting. Unless you have the gift to discern the movements of the beast, and the will to act decisively, you will lose. Two people can analyze the same information, and even come to the same mental conclusions. One will take action, the other might take action, and ten minutes later. The one will win, the other will most likely lose.

Case in point. I said to myself as ENE was in its death spiral, "you know, this is too big to fail, 'they' will not let it happen. Somehow it will be bailed out, and even if it isn't there will be a time lag until the final pronouncement of death. Good trading opportunity. I have quite a few thousand available. All I have to do is click the mouse a couple times, and probably turn around a good profit in less than a week." Was I right in this assessment? YOU BET!! Did I act? No. What if I get in today? Too late, it'll probably tank, or languish. Or worse, it'll drop just a bit, and begin a slow two-steps-backward, one-step-forward descent, and I'll pray for it to just break even, and swear to never do this again, and lose sleep... and you know the rest... I don't have the chemistry for trading. Investing? True investing? You have to judge this for yourself. I am not disposed to equities right now because of lot of reasons, all have been beaten to death here in the past.

In my very humble opinion, I will say that a very thorough read of the entire Another/FOA archives will give you such abundant food for thought, that, while perhaps not having all your questions answered, will strengthen you enough to feel confident in addressing them.

I say a "very thorough" read because I know that when reading this material one will come across tough spots, and after spending a few moments, say, "well I pretty much know what they're saying," and move on. The large amount of material, and the interesting nature of what these gentlemen say, causes one to keep going just to keep up. If this should apply to you, I cannot but recommend taking the real time, and real effort to pursue what they say until the light goes on and you "get it."

I don't mean that you will nor must agree with all that they say, but what they offer is truly quite profound. Personally, I subscribe to their line of thinking as it sets best with my apprehension of things in life thus far.

If anyone else should respond to your post, they may offer something diametrically opposite to this, and they may sound right. Perhaps they are right, perhaps we are all wrong. In the spirit of Keynes, we are all dead in the long run, but in the anti-spirit of Keynes, the safest holding of your excess wealth is physical gold in hand. Lay up your treasures in Heaven, but keep a prudent store of your wealth for your earthly journey...

Sorry if I rambled, but I hope something here is of use...

Best regards,

Max RabbitzCanuck and the Markets#6648712/6/01; 07:07:54

What strikes me about these markets is the emotional volatility. The slightest hint of a movement can cause the entire herd to change direction. Look at bonds yesterday! The second time in a month this happened. There is lots of hot money out there looking for a return.

I think Doug Noland has some very good points. Our money is based on credit and it is the poor quality of this credit that is the major threat to our financial system today. I have no confidence in the new economy insurance instruments that are supposed to make secure silk purses out of poor credit sows ears. Even money market funds are based on the credit quality of Joe six-pack's mortgage, and he just bought another SUV on credit. What to do? My plan over the last year and more has been to steadily turn paper into gold and wait for a better day.

The herd has stampeded towards what they think is that sunny day when they can all retire early and rich. I wish it were likely. But storm clouds are forming and time is getting short. It's not a matter of getting wealthy but of surviving the coming storm, both financial and physical. Ramadan ends in about a week and I don't believe the terrorists are through. Dirty nuclear devices (not bombs) are believed to be in radical Islamic hands and could easily be in any number of western cities. I hope not, but I expect and am prepared for the worst should something like this happen. This is not the time to be counting paper profits and planning early retirements. IMO most early retirements in the next few years will not be voluntary.

RobotGuyWaveRider and Galearis#6648812/6/01; 07:09:37

Thank-you gentlemn for following up on my post regarding CAN$ and POG corelation. Despite what the past has indicated, please don't ruin my dream of buying gold cheaper. Here a couple of gentlemen will slap me in the face with the reality of the past and wake me out of a lucid dream state. I CAN STILL HOPE CAN'T I??? ;) All in good humour gentlemen, thank you for your input.
RobotGuyFellow Canuck#6648912/6/01; 07:22:17

I am at the same place you are my friend. I have made a few 'educated' guess investments since the beginning of Jan '00 and needless to say, I didn't choose an opportune time to get into it. I have had one or two good hits to keep me floating but I also know the feeling all too well. I have actually done something very very risky, but after reading an article by a very wealthy man I was convinced that I am not the only person who has tried this. I have placed all of my eggs in one basket, and yes it is a gold stock. After some reasearch on the company I have personally concluded that this stock will go up and that it will return to me a comfortable sum. No more diversification for me, too much juggling. I will sit on my paper, perhaps buy a little physical to play with and look at, and wait for my magic bean sprout to take. What did the wealthy man say?? Do exactly what everyone tells you not to do.
uponroofCanuck#6649012/6/01; 07:29:51

Your brutal honesty is very refreshing and much admired. It has triggered quite a bit of interest from fellow PM sufferers. Allow me to join the purge.

Each year I spend thousands on life, home, business, car and even horse insurance. Money that I never see again. Should I feel remorse over this? NO! I am much more upset if I buy a box of cereal without a coupon which was left at home.

My 'protection investments' in PM's are as follows: 40% in physical, split 50/50 between gold and silver, 40% in mining stocks which I move around (without much sucess) depending on numerous indicators including company reports, market outlooks, politics, societal and health concerns, economies, environmental trends etc. etc. The 20% left is spent, and I do mean 'spent', on call options.

The physical and stocks are holding their own. The options I classify as paper insurance. Money to be spent and never seen again (like insurance premiums) is where my guilt surfaces. As an option trader am I contributing to the paper bastardization of gold and silver? Perhaps. I have not yet fully evolved into that 'physical only' holder that most folks become after years and years and years in this game.

Are 'physical only' holders in sole occupation of the precious metals high ground? Perhaps, but I like to compare this with salvation (excuse this detour, but knowing the strong sentiment for physical here I better explain).

Once an understanding of fiat deception is gained you are then 'saved'. 'Sanctification' (the moving towards physical only holdings) if you will, ocurrs at each one's individual pace. While all are in fact saved, old temptations (paper vehicles) still have some power over them during the sactification process. Obviously once in 'physical only' the downside risk (Hell) becomes zero if you have gained an understanding of real intrinsic value versus man's imposed value.

Sorry for that detour. Not really a perfect example as it is difficult to square any 'money', no matter how pure, with salvation. Not sure I'll ever reach physical only 'understanding'. Please, no prayers chanting for me. ;-)

Back to protection investing. Given the enormous uncertainty of economies, world affairs, currencies, etc etc. it is nothing less than negligent (assuming you are 'saved', having knowledge of the truth) to proceed through life without these PM protective measures.

So, I look at this as a devinly inspired insurance of sorts that has a real cost yet must be implemented in order to live with ones conscience. Hang in there Canuck, we are all there with you.

gotta run

The StrangerFive Ways the Euro Could Weaken the Dollar#6649112/6/01; 07:43:24

Special Townhall Report
Stage Set for GOLD Rally!!

Kevin DeMeritt

December 5, 2001

Five Ways the Euro Could Weaken the Dollar

You've probably heard the saying: "when it comes to your breakfast, the chicken was involved (eggs) . . . but the pig was committed (bacon)." On January 1st, 2002, twelve European nations will understand that difference only too well. That's "E-Day," when Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain will start bidding a fond farewell to their respective currencies and commit to going fully "online" with the Euro, Europe's single common currency, by February 28, 2002 at the latest.

Although the Euro became the common currency for eleven of these nations back in 1999 (that is, the participating currencies were fixed in value against one another and against the Euro), the members were still allowed a foot in the door with the retention of their own paper money and coins. Now, however, that "foot" gets permanently removed and the door will forever shut on such historic currencies as the French Franc, and the Italian Lira.

It will rank as the single biggest monetary event in history. What happens next, though, may severely weaken the "world's" dominant currency, the Dollar.

Surviving its Challenges to Challenge the Dollar

To be sure, the Euro has faced steep challenges. For example, there is no precedent of a large geographical area having a single currency that was not also a single state. The logistics of the changeover are mindboggling, too. All in all, though, it appears that the nations involved will take this enormous leap of faith on the first of the year . . . and that's what has holders of Dollar-denominated assets—and currencies like the British Pound that are closely tied to the Dollar—concerned. Here are five reasons why the Euro could send the Dollar into a tailspin:

1. Designed to Out-Dollar the Dollar.

As Jill Considine, president of the New York Clearinghouse Association, which handles most US currency transactions says, "Its not just another currency…There's going to be a new, competitive landscape." Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi put it more bluntly, "We are building a competitor to the Dollar, there is no doubt about that." This, of course, was the intent of the Euro—succeeding the Dollar as the world's premier currency was part of the original "mission statement" of it creators.

2. Greater than US Economic Strength.

The economic might represented by the combination of Euro nations is greater than the US. That's both in terms of gross domestic product and world trade. The total value of the EMU countries' stocks, bonds (both public and corporate), and bank lending amounts to US$23 trillion . . . $3 trillion higher than the US.

The Financial Times estimates that up to $1 trillion in international investment may quickly shift from US Dollars to Euros, sending the Dollar into a tailspin. It follows that as more and more international trade is conducted in Euros, the demand for Dollars will decline to that extent. Along with the Dollar's strength and prestige.

3. A More Secure Central Bank.

This all-powerful, supranational European Central Bank will act like our own Federal Reserve, but with one important difference: free of the political meddling the Fed endures, it will be far more independent and better equipped to push the strength of its currency. Managing it will be monetary hardliners headquartered in Frankfurt who have been raised on the strength of the Deutsche Mark. The member nations boast an average 25 percent gold reserve. With this kind of strength, management and independence, the world's financial markets will probably see the Euro as a more secure storehouse of wealth than one backed by the only partially independent Fed. The bottom line? The "European Fed" will further add to the growing number of defections to the Euro.

4. The New Reserve Currency?

Since the Dollar has been the base of world trade, foreign banks have kept it in reserve. For example, the Japanese central bank holds an all-time record $350 billion Dollar reserve. As the Euro comes online just how much of that $350 billion will be traded for Euros? Now, add in all the other countries who might trade Dollars for Euros and the number becomes astronomical.

5. Changing Perception of the World's Superpower.

Never-before-seen terrorist events in America, a looming US recession, and a poor Dollar performance against the Euro in 2001 all set the stage for the January 1st changeover. With the twelve European nations committing to the Euro at this critical juncture, the world may begin seeing America as a suddenly vulnerable superpower. A loss of confidence in the Dollar may ensue. And confidence in the Euro may accelerate. That's especially so should terrorism escalate in the US. A report by the HSBC Group of London concerning the declining Dollar stated, "The risk of a disorderly meltdown scenario is increasing, raising significant dangers for the global economy."

Is Your Portfolio Tied to a Weakening Dollar?

So where should the wise investor put his money now that the countdown to a falling Dollar is nearing zero? Probably not Euros, that's for sure. While Investing in the Euro may seem a smart strategy in 2002, the volatility of this brand new and undeveloped market may simply be impossible to handle. There's too much currency risk, too much uncertainty connected with Europe's single common currency just yet. Until this market matures, you could be whipsawed out of any monies you invest here.

Instead, investors should follow the example set by the Austrian Central Bank and other world institutions. Rather than selling gold in expectation of 2002, the Austrian Central Bank—its nation being among the twelve Euro nations—recently bought $1 billion in gold. This "currency neutral" asset exists outside the world of currency volatility and is a stable, storehouse of value. Which is why the Euro nations are busily building their gold reserves.

Like these institutions, you, too, should up your portfolio's percentage of the golden metal. A falling Dollar is serious business. You can prepare for it the way people have preserved their spending power since time immemorial. That means reconfiguring your portfolio to include 15 percent in gold. This is a prudent move in any economy because gold is "negatively correlated" to Dollar-denominated stocks, bonds, and funds. That means not only do gold coins boast a superior track record to equities, gold often moves contrary to the direction of these paper assets and the Dollar, providing you with a solid diversification. It's a smart move. Otherwise, you might just wake up to find that your portfolio was tied way too tightly to a falling US Dollar.

Galearis@Canuck (Godsell email) and Waverider#6649212/6/01; 07:48:14

posts and comments

Apologies for my lack of posts yesterday. I had some problems logging on...

First: across the months lease rates for silver have jumped enormously this morning as additional signs of unhealthy market imbalances; one is under the impression that shortness of metal supply is becoming more widespread and mainstream savvy.

Also, news about India and disquisition of CB silver bullion reserves have not yet been reported on this forum. The Indian government is apparently considering the domestic sale of some 32 m. o. of the metal to its own people. I consider this some verification of the measure of concern the Indian government has over deepening currency worries. The silver would soak up rupees, not dollars. It is amazing how quiet everyone out there has been about this... The financial sector would seem to have missed a story with deep, deep spin potential.

Canuck: fascinating conversation with Mr. Godsell. He praises you and thanks individuals like you for improving his knowledge about his industry and then proceeds to politely ignore/dismiss your information about the market fundamentals from your perspective. Is he being disingenuous? Nevertheless, he did spend some time on his essay from what must be a busy schedule for him (especially now) and accolades are deserving.

Waverider: Thank you for your help in the CAN$/POG. I was going to do a similar study (eyeball/graph) work up myself. In the back of my mind has festered the notion that exchange rates are influenced (manipulated) in some way because of asset bases - especially gold. Those countries that are rich in the metal, S.A., Canada, have suffered increasing problems with their currencies that would have little to do with the fundamentals associated with the printing press and easy credit. Canada has not inflated nearly as much as others, but as you say there may be more factors at play here than just POG. However, also at the back of my mind was the notion that these currency fluctuation would infer a quasi-gold price stability. As the POG declined in USD while our own dollar declined in exchange rate purchasing power, the CAN$POG has remained MORE neutral.
Subjective impressions only on our part.

Best regards,


RobotGuy@Stranger#6649312/6/01; 07:59:37

Thank you for your post, it shed much new light on my understanding of the impact this change over could have.
GalearisSuperb article by Saville: Echoes of ANOTHER#6649412/6/01; 08:00:58

Thirdly and perhaps most importantly, the conversion of all the European national currencies into euro notes and coins begins on 1st January 2002 and must be complete by 28th February 2002. Euro-bulls no doubt believe that once the euro has a physical presence its value relative to the Dollar will rise, but that is not how these things usually go. Not everyone who owns German Marks and French Francs will be happy to exchange them for euros. In fact, some of the existing holders of Marks and Francs will prefer the perceived safety of an international currency that has been around for longer than 15 minutes. The forced conversion to euros may therefore give the demand for US Dollars a substantial boost during the first quarter of next year. Note that this is potentially one time when a weak euro will not go hand-in-hand with a weak gold price since a flight from the euro would probably boost both Dollar demand and gold demand.
Excellent read.


HipplebeckCanuck#6649512/6/01; 08:15:18

I know that story only too well. I have a friend who burned through over a million dollars in the last two years. She is sick with herself. She got caught up in the online stock market casino like a drug. I tried to convince her of what what happening to her, but she couldn't get past the excitement. Now she buys coins and real estate.
For what it is worth, my suggestion is that everytime you want to invest, buy some gold coins and give them to your wife to put away for you. It will add up fast, and you will be a hero to her. I have no investments except for my house and gold and silver coins. Chancy? Who cares. I have my investments in my possession. That is the most important thing to me in these days where analysts and investment brokers are the lowest of the low.

Galearis@ Canuck#6649612/6/01; 08:17:19


We all have them, old son. In fact, as most of us on this forum have discovered, gold and silver investments in terms of dollars out of the cache for our daily needs have not been resounding successes either. But at least with investing in the metal, one KNOWS that one is not the riding a buffalo over a cliff with the rest of the herd.

And our time has to come! At the risk of projecting a little here, a lot of the disquiet comes from feelings of helplessness, frustration and betrayal. Chicken-Licken (sp?)and gold bugs will be right in the end. The sky is falling; it may be invisible to most but it will hurt nevertheless when it lands. That's why they invented precious metals.



RockgrabberCanuck, dont stop your Euro countdown now.#6649712/6/01; 08:34:10

The name of the game is to take as much effert and energy from people possable (Money). What better plan. Get the hole world to save a valueless asset in dollars and then crash it on them. Also take away their ablitlity to hedge themselfes in a dollar crash by exploding the derivitives markets with no intention of letting the derivitives function. DEFAULT. We did it to them. Game seems fair to me. Sell all call options people want, they wont take no delivery on an option, especially when the price always falls away from them, they will just buy another one when the other fails. Then the worst nightmare happens. Folks who were betting on golds price to rise finally are right only as their market fails them. They are left holding nothing in gold. And the game is so much more effective for concentrating others efforts into your hands. They dont want to share their wealth. I cut my option investing out after the Placer Dome anouncement spike retreat. If it is something I can kick myself over I had better stay away. Just like buying another option. If you feel the desire that bad, at least straddle the things. You have a chance. Straddles are cheaper then they apear. How would you be sitting if all your leveraged option bets were made as straddles? Any profits go towards physical. Cause you can bet we will face another attack, once the Euro is out. When that happens gold will be set free. A dirty nuke is all it takes. Simple as that. Way to much power will be on the line, for that to not happen.
USAGOLDLetter from Farfel#6649812/6/01; 08:35:55

Note: Farfel contacted me today to reproduce the letter below. I believe his response to Mr. Godsell's claims, as posted by Chris Powell here the other day, worth noting. Farfel's opinions do not necessarily reflect those of the management.

Dear Mr. Goldsell:

I just read your formula for a sound gold market. Once again, I cannot
help but be amazed at the preposterous and overtly disingenuous
recommendations you make. The tragic aspect of the matter is
that if a person like yourself in a position of authority repeatedly
tells the world that the sun is purple, then eventually people begin to
believe that it is, indeed, purple.

1) You complain that gold mining companies produced too much gold over
the last fifteen years. Yet it is generally acknowledged that the gold
industry's global annual production is insufficient to meet annual
global consumer demand - - as such, gold scrap suppliers and Central
banks have been compelled since 1996 to sell huge quantities of gold
into the marketplace in order to make up the deficit. They have done
so at risk to their various fiat paper currencies, often rendering them
as no more than debt instruments backed by the good faith of government
rather than any intrinsic value assets.

Furthermore, it is generally acknowledged that bullion banks hold at
least a 6000 ton net short gold position (aggregated during the
longstanding gold carry trade) such that it is necessary to maximize
gold production in order to allow those enormous gold short positions to
be covered over time.

So if anything, today there is a tremendous global gold mining industry
production shortage that can only be made up by gold scrap sales in
combination with Central bank sales plus irrationally large multi-year
forward sales by the gold mining industry. Without such extraordinary
price suppression efforts, gold would trade at a much higher price

2) Your 50% annual gold production hedge covering a five year span is
far too aggressive (I would actually describe it as overtly reckless)
and acts as a suppressant to the gold price. If you really want to see
the gold price rise (and it is transparently obvious you do not), then
you (and the entire gold industry) would aggressively lobby the CFTC
and all other national gold market regulators to limit forward sales of gold to NO more than one year's production.
That is the norm for most commodities yet for some reason gold (and
silver) production can be super-hedged while other commodities cannot.
Of course, we know why: gold is viewed by most countries as de facto
money, the asset of last resort, a veritable and chronic threat to US
dollar hegemony in the world currency system. This remains true even
as you and other super-hedged gold producers attempt to change that
perception and transform gold into a non-essential metal with no higher
purpose than the frivolous adornment of the human body.

3) You have lobbied other gold producers to focus their efforts in
ramping up gold jewelry demand while completely ignoring a campaign to
promote gold as a contrarian asset of choice. That fact is not
surprising since your actions on behalf of Anglogold are, in reality,
actions against your own shareholders in favor of your heavily short
bullion bank counterparties.

The proof is in the pudding as, despite Anglogold's past profits, its
huge gold short position in the form of over aggressive hedges has
contributed to the decline of the gold price and the resultant
depreciation of the entire value of your gold reserves. Hence the
inevitable and continuing long term decline in your stock price since
the value of a gold mining company's aggregate reserves is ultimately a
most significant factor today in determining stock price.

Mr. Goldsell, the best remedy for the malaise affecting the gold
industry is your summary removal from office (along with other
super-hedgers) who act in concert with bullion bank counterparties and
anti-gold Western central banks in order to suppress the gold price and
diminsh the value of the entire gold industry's aggregate reserves.
That these actions are undertaken to protect the US Dollar is neither an

act of pro-American allegiance nor the preservation of a "happy" global
economic status quo; rather it is a disdainful subversion of the free
market capitalist system; a perpetuation of market moral hazard; and an
overt display of cronyism designed to protect those gold short market
associates who have painted themselves into a corner with no immediate
avenue of escape.

Please cease your unmitigated bullshit once and for all. Today's gold
investors have slowly but surely grown wise to your inveterate
obfuscations; your unyielding double-speak; and your insufferable

Please relinquish your office once and for all. If not, hopefully, your
shareholders will revolt sooner than later and send you to pasture where
you belong.

Very Truly,

Christian(No Subject)#6649912/6/01; 08:36:21

Our money is based on the credit quality of Joe six-pack's credit quality of his credit card or bank mortgage. It is also the ability for bond, stock and currency manipulators and speculators who act in collusion with one another to vampire investors. An example of this is Enron. Another one is Barrick. Barrick Gold does not own the "Pasmua-Lama" gold project in Chile and that is its main listed holdings. Barrick Gold like Enron is a finance company. It makes its so called profits with paper trading. Like Enron the profits made are shown and loses are hidden. People have to realize that gold like the fiat money deposits are now used as reserves by banks to make new loans. There is 3 kinds of gold, 1= commodity gold worth about $275 2= deep storage gold worth very little because of the cost to get it out of the ground 3= credit creation gold traded between central banks worth many times commodity gold. The reserve requirements on the 11 central banks that make up the FED is 3% which goes into 100 33 times, times $275 commodity gold price= $9,000. No# is based on information which has got me into trouble many times. Banks like Barrick will kill individuals who bring forth information that is not in their interest. What do you think will happen to Barrick stock if they were to anounce that they had defrauded stockholders on the Pascua-Lama ownership. What do you think will happen to bank deposits if banks anounced there is no backing for those deposits.
HenriBobby Godsell's epiphany#6650012/6/01; 09:06:38

What motive has Mr. Godsell in reversing his tack on hedging at this point in time? Does he seek to woo Normandy shareholder's to believe AU will serve their interests any better than Newmont? Or, has he glimpsed the future where an uncontained run on paper gold results in ownership of his company being turned over to the bullion bankers in a liquidation of assets as they have claim to 50%/40% of his reserves yet to be mined.

Maybe his future delivery contracts only pay out cash infusions monthly and he didn't receive his last check from Uncle JPM?

Cavan ManUSAGOLD#6650112/6/01; 09:19:29

RE: Farfel's opinions

Mike, why not? Farfel's letter sums it up nicely as usual. For myself, that is my opinion.
Cavan ManThe Stranger#6650212/6/01; 09:25:51

Hello David. I believe this gentleman works for Lear Financial? If so then he is the person who reported that the CB of Austria recently purchased $US 1 BIllion of AU bullion. BTW, a mutual (Austrian) acquaintance who I have also had the great pleasure of meeting personally believes this report to be true. Salutations friend......CM
Cavan ManCanuck#6650312/6/01; 09:47:30

"All that part of creation that lies within our observation is liable to change. Even mighty states and kingdoms are not exempted. If we look into history, we shall find some nations rising from contemptible beginnings and spreading their influence, until the whole globe is subjected to their ways. When they have reached the summit of grandeur, some minute and unsuspected cause commonly affects their ruin, and the empire of the world is transferred to some other place. Immortal Rome was at first an insignificant village, inhabited only by a few abandoned ruffians, but by degrees it rose to stupendous height, and excelled in arts and arms all the nations that preceded it. But the demolition of Carthage (what one should think should have established it in supreme dominion) by removing all danger, suffered it to sink into debauchery, and made it at length an easy prey to Barbarians".

John Adams
Letter to Nathan Webb
October 12, 1755

Canuck: I stand alongside all timeless (for a reason) wisdom. I hope you do likewise.

Pizz@Canuck#6650412/6/01; 11:24:29

Rarely post, but I just had to let you know you're not alone. You're even one step ahead of me since at least you made the realization yourself.

My "awakening" was when my wife went to the "bone pile" last week. For years she has worked a heck of a lot harder (physical vs my mental job) for a heck of a lot less. For years I've taken a portion of "my" income and justified my speculation mentally with "we can afford it". Really what I have done is gambled away her hard earned money in what amouts to a rigged crap game. She thinks I've been investing her pay for retirement and now feels that since she's lost her job, our retirement is in jeopardy. I still haven't told her where "her" income has gone.

My partial salvation has been this forum. You see, I've always been a contrarian and my occupation requires I stay on top of financial issues. Since our beloved politicians and FED have this one totally screwed up, I started lurking, reading, etc., and started buying physical (thanks to FOA) three months ago.

Like you, I'm afraid I won't have enough when the time comes, (it's coming faster than we think because I'm not ready), but what I have personally done is cut out all of "my", and I do mean "my" extra spending on anything other than necessities (I even pack my own lunch, quit smoking, drinking, etc. and its tough) and buy physical and give it to my wife to keep. It goes in her safe deposit box and I can't get to it.

Hang in there ye who sounds like in same boat as me. Paper crosses can be heavy.

megatronCanuck#6650512/6/01; 11:26:54

I don't mean this in a condecending way, but you should never play if you can't afford to lose. Everything is a gamble, walking down the street is a gamble. Were you a loser for walking down the street and stubbing your toe? Maybe Woody Allen might think so. I don't. Life is a complex series of decisions. You made some decisions. Live with them, learn and move on. Is someone a gambler who is farming even though he knows the gov't is actively working against him? Was that a stupid decision he made 40 years ago? Will buying $10k worth of gold/silver bullion in 2001 in piece of s$^%$^$t Canadian currency be viewed as a gamble in 30 years? That is the kind of 'gamble' I will take EVERY TIME.
R PowellFarfel / Canuck#6650612/6/01; 11:44:24

Michael, thanks for posting Farfel's letter. I have always enjoyed his written thoughts and can picture his blood presure rising as he typed it. Well written based on sound fundamental facts and then flavored with his strong sentiment. Thanks Farfel!
Canuck and all who answered. In all probability, we all have a great deal in common, in that, as far as investments go, we have all enjoyed gains and suffered loses. Myself, I'm still somewhere between completely broke and outrageously wealthy. Still working, paying the monthly bills and holding both paper bets and physical silver.
May I offer a favorite, once more

Don't put your hope in ungodly men, or
Be a slave to what somebody else believes.
If you need somebody you can trust,
Trust yourself.
---Bob Dylan

HenriDear Gold Cartel...I know you are monitoring this site#6650712/6/01; 11:49:34

Please ensure that you step on the gold price tommorrow so that it closes at $272 and Henri can win the little Philharmonic.

Thanks in advance

megatronAlan Greenspan, Maestro or ?#6650812/6/01; 12:23:05

There are two criteria for judging a man: words and actions. Think about which one is a more accurate measuring stick of character judgments concerning morality and integrity. A mans words may be used for an initial sizing up of his character by others, or for him to reveal beliefs and opinions he holds dear to another. His words can clarify, obfuscate, lie about, reveal, and portend many things about a person , and can be used for a myriad of reasons known only to himself. They form a ‘blanket’ in which a person wraps themselves, good or bad, announcing their character traits to the world around them. And in a world driven by the ‘perception is reality’ mantra, they hold the highest esteem , amongst many, when spoken publicly by someone of ‘repute’. Not I.
The problem with words is at some point they become just that, words. They must be followed with the physical form of character, and that is action. There is a vast gulf between men of words and men of action, my friends. A gulf I fear that is so vast, most of society cannot or will not see across it. They are content to listen to the words of others and accept them at face value as they are being trained to do. Not I.
The true man of action has no need for many words, really. His ‘sentences’ are constantly spoken for him, manifested by his work and actions. The individual of integrity and character is constantly broadcasting his ‘beliefs’ by actions that reflect them. The man who ‘says one thing and does another’ formerly garnered little respect amongst his peers, hence the saying, and yet people are becoming willing to accept that trait in insidious ways , in every aspect of their lives, without examining the consequences. Not I.
I cannot be swayed by words that are not followed by actions. The ratio of words to action in the modern world is alarming. As long as you are talking you are perceived to be ‘acting’. Nothing could be further from the truth. It is inversely proportional. ‘Perception is reality’ is for the most morally bankrupt level of humanity, a segment that has lost the ability to take a moral or ethical stand on anything, let alone act on it. My friends, "Reality is Reality".

My diatribes about Alan Greenspan stem from my observance of his double standards on ethics, the individual, altruism, and government . His statements from the 60's on gold and the welfare state should be read before every day in class, or football games, or the opening of a Congressional session. Anyone knows that central control and individual honor and integrity cannot survive in the same body or mind without massive dosages of self -delusion. But then, your doing ‘God's work’, aren't you Alan. His actions have shown him to be nothing more than a ‘bag man’ for interests that appear to be ‘Up with people’ on the surface, but completely falacious when juxtaposed against his former so called ‘beliefs’ in the individual and freedom from gov't. The chairman has NEVER made a clear statement that ALL can understand outlining the destruction of the US dollar and the gov't continuing role in it's purposeful debasement. The weak argument that ‘no one would listen’ is laughable. EVERYONE would listen. THAT is why he doesn't say it. The corruption and moral decay of the last 10 years have never been witnessed in America before, and if the saying that ‘you get what you deserve’ is correct, then Alan Greenspan is the perfect man for the job. Almost pathologically afraid of saying anything that could upset his political masters, their ‘bitch’ mumbled here and there about ‘irrational exuberance’ ‘productivity increases’ and a whole raft of what he and everyone else knows is UTTER NONSENSE. The name of the game he plays is ‘Goebell-esque’ crowd delusion. Doing everything and anything possible to defend the massed idiots of world finance by subversion is in no way shape or form a reason to garner respect for anyone. It is reason only for utter contempt. When perusing the minutes of any number of recorded meetings of the Chairman you always get a sense that they are trying desperately to ‘subvert’ the laws of America, in order to ‘save’ someone from ‘something’ These minutes are brushed off like everything else today, with a ho hum oh well someone has to attitude that I cannot fathom.. The fact that ‘the most powerful banker’ in the world has not, in 13 years ,and will not order a public audit of America's gold reserves is revealing to an incredible degree. Obviously the Emporer has no clothes. By his actions, the mental disease of altruism and self-delusional have become more and more apparent, like watching a person slowly dying of Lou Gerhig's disease. Keep doing ‘God's work’ Alan, I'm sure your place among the ‘chosen few’ is assured. You are a sickening man. Maybe to offset all your delusional subversions you could write a new short treatise on gold and the welfare state and read it on national television when you retire. It would make a nice bookend to your carreer. I won't hold my breath.

Tommy PThe Price of Gold#6650912/6/01; 12:38:05

Sorry guys but it's going to take a nuclear war before the
price of gold rises. As long as they print money and keep the media at bay from telling the truth... its a "free for all" until Europe steps in or ...... a nuclear war. cheers for now

BelgianAntal Fekete : The economic consequences of Mr Greenspan (GE)#6651012/6/01; 13:34:08

Brilliant addendum to the "deflation versus hyperinflation" debate.
21 years (1980) of interest rates and currencies gambling, dwarfing the stockmarkets 10 to 20 times in volume, will and must result in taking *Gold* back to where it belongs.
Be it a goldstandard mutant (Fekete) or free physical gold (FOA).

The zero-rate trap is the great finale. After runaway inflation of the eighties, the concerted action(s) on bringing those high IRs down, was the only tool left to add extension time on the prosperity miracle. Fekete explains what this did to the evolution of total debt. Irredeemable debt (and currency)! Interest rates have only one way to go from zero : up ! And the price-inflation that has been capped for the past 20 years, must come out of its cave(s).

Rising IRs, will have a *devastating* effect, as never before.

Keynes theory has been applicated for the simple reason that a majority within the collectivity can't possibly be, or ever become Gold related. Gold's discipline isn't applicable on western (political) democracies (?)
They can't adjust to the *natural* rithmes and cycles of contraction and expansion. This relentless greed has a price. A very high price.

Controlled Re-inflating is out of the question now. That's why zero rates are achieved in the first place. Japan the US and even Europ, have no alternative(s) left, but to keep IRs as low as possible for as long as possible. With the consequence of making things worse in the elapsing time.

R PowellSigns of silver backwardation / Availability?#6651112/6/01; 13:47:46

Wednesday's IBD, reporting Tuesday's closing numbers lists the December CBOT contract as having gained 6.90 cents while the Feb. contract lost 5.40, April and June lost 7.40 and August lost 7.20 cents.
The same day's trading (Tuesday last) on the larger Comex exchange saw the spot month and all futures down 7.20 cents with only three exceptions, two months at 7.30 and one at 7.40.
I don't know if this is a reflection of the very thinly traded CBOT silver or if it is an omen of coming events. I have a suspicion that we will see the paper silver market in severe backwardation before the end of year 2002. There are trading positions designed to take advantage of the spot price exceeding the futures quote.
I have grown very attached to my little stash of physical holdings and will not sell unless forced to but, for those holding physical with the intention of dishoarding at higher prices, knowledge and awareness of this backwardation phenomenon might offer clues as to just when to sell. It would probably be sometime during the transition back from a state of backwardation to normal contango. However, that's about as far as I dare go as I have no more knowledge or experience here, just supposins.
But, signs of or the initial beginnings of backwardation may be interpreted, like smoke belching from the top of a volcano, as a warning of shortages in the spot and immediate futures markets.
Galearis- I like that image of riding a buffalo over a cliff with the rest of the herd. I did some work for a fellow who ordered silver Buffalo coins, immediately after receiving the advertisement literature from the mint, only to have his payment returned- sorry, sold out!
USAGOLD, Michael, what do you see/hear of the availability of silver??? Thanks

uponroofTommy P....the media and the truth#6651212/6/01; 14:10:38

"The American economy has officially entered what promises to be the worst recession since the early 1980s and, conceivably, the worst since World War II. But you'd hardly know from the media, which have treated the economic story as a sideshow. To take one example: When the National Bureau of Economic Research -- the academic group that designates business cycles -- declared the recession last week, the New York Times didn't even put the story on Page 1...."


"We're just at the start of the consumption side of the recession," says economist John Makin of the American Enterprise Institute. There's a new worry. Most post-World War II recessions began with declining consumption. By contrast, this one started with lower corporate investment: the result of excess spending on the Internet and communications networks. Consumer buying kept rising -- though at a slower pace -- and sustained overall growth. If consumers now retreat, the recession will deepen.

Just why Wall Street dismisses these dangers isn't clear. One possibility is self-interest. "The stock market touts refuse to stop hyping stocks," says Makin. A zippier market means more trading, more profits and bigger bonuses. It's also possible that average investors -- professional money managers and ordinary people -- remain hypnotized by the market. The "bubble" has burst, and the long-term trend is up. Buy now...."

Well the pounce on the Enron bounce has subsided. Down 28% today. Who were those people? Were they serious in thinking that a declared bankrupt company would offer value of some sort? Or were they playing into the herd mentality? I think the latter. It's a sick, sick state of mind the Stock market has degenerated into. Hypesters driving the herd and insiders preying on them. This Enron action the last few days speaks volumes about what passes for 'investing'.

R PowellBelgian (66510)#6651312/6/01; 14:13:25

Similar to piling more sandbags on the dike even though you are certain the flood will eventually break through. You know also that restraining the waters now will only (must) enhanse the coming flood damage.
Save today by sacrificing tomorrow?
Who will break the dam now? Similar to wondering which of my children would have the ability to end my life if it consisted of only constant pain and I were not able to pull the plug? My wife used to work as a home health aid, often comforting those beyond healing. I hope I have Hemingway's guts when the time comes, if the situation reguires. Is our economy terminally ill? Is Alan Greenspan treating it in the hopes of recovery or just easing it along into the hereafter?
As usual, more questions than answers.


WELL-HONED & ERUDITE SKILLS!! AND THIS IS GOING TO BE A GOOD ONE. . . . . . . You know what, Dark horse, I've been thinking what you've been thinking.

We're due for a contest and it would be productive to tap the collective wisdom around this noble
Table. I agree.

But how to break the psychic dam and get the ideas to flow?

Nothing like a challenge to match the quality of the poster and lurkers present. This idea came to
me while having
lunch today and browsing over the latest GRANT’S Interest Rate Observer. It seems that one of
James Grant's
friends -- a fellow named Paul L. Kasreil who does economic research for Northern Trust Co. --
posed a most
far-reaching question. One that is making the rounds among people who talk markets as well as
those who enjoy the
same as a worthy pre-occupation.

The question is this:

------------------------------------ Alan Greenspan: Maestro or Music Man? ----------------------------

The book, "Maestro", was the subject of a great deal of conversation here when it came out
several months ago and
opinion was pretty much divided on it -- some thought it characterized a master at the peak of his
powers. Others
saw it as a whitewash of a Fed chairman who simply injected liquidity willy-nilly at a time when
the world had no
where to turn but the dollar. Some called him genius. Others called him lucky. Still others called
him confused --
pumping money into the system at one turn and deriding "irrational exuberance" the next.

But Maestro or Music Man?? Now that's intriguing, and very much worth a contest.

For those of you scratching your head at the choice, I will remind you that The Music Man, one
of America's
favorite all-time musicals, is the story of band director/con artist. The following from famed
critic, Clifford Ridley
captures the Music Man for our purposes:

"Bierko is a younger Hill than Preston, yet with his slicked-back hair, his self- dramatizing
gestures and his roving
eyes constantly scouting for trouble, he's every inch the two-bit con man. As advertised, he
delivers Hill's fervid
patter with dash and musicality; and at the end, when he's unmasked by the unconditional love of
a good woman,
he's quite touching. And he has a splendid foil in Luker, who sings Marian's arching melodies in
a limpid soprano
and persuasively metamorphoses from chilly skeptic to loving co-conspirator. She also has a fine
way of saying
"Ssssh" - an admonition, fortunately, that this ebullient production mostly ignores."

And then here's a passage from the preface to Bob Woodward's "Maestro" which more than
adequately captures the
essence of the Maestro side of the coin:

"Greenspan is slated to remain chairman of the Federal Reserve until 2004. Not only is he a
major figure in the
world's economic past, he is central to its future. He has been frank enough to stand before the
new and amazing
economic circumstances that he helped create and in the end declare them a mystery. It is
impossible to account fully
for the continuing high growth, record employment, low inflation and high stock market."

And, toward the end of this important book:

"Greenspan also represents something more than the confidence wing of the American
Personality. He stands at the
point where the country's eternal optimism meets the country's abiding suspicion that something
will go wrong. . .
That fear also creates a kind of excitement and anticipation.Greenspan stands at the crossroads of
optimisim and
pessimism. Each of us is a character in the nation's great economic soap opera; Greenspan is
both director and

So, the question before the table is this:

***** "Alan Greenspan, Maestro or Music Man?" *****

Lovable Con-Man or Brilliant Fed Chairman?

I will leave with another thought of Mr. Kasreil -- as I think the computer cannot be taken out of
the present
equation without missing a major part of the analysis:

"Economics how do we measure that? Well, I can tell you there has been a very increase in
productivity, at least at
my shop. When I joined the Northern Trust over 15 years ago, it took three senior economists
and three research
assistants about two weeks to come out with an inaccurate economic forecast, and with this
laptop, I can do it all by
myself in one day."

The world, I know, is not spinning any faster than it used to be but who among us would deny
that it is. . . . . . . .
.So Maestro or Music? You be the judge.

Each entry must address the question in sufficient length but no more than is absolutely
necessary to make the point
-- the eternal bane of the writer. An appropriate link is acceptable. The contest will be judged not
on the choice you
make but on the erudition and argumentative skills used to make your case. Please surround your
entry with stars as
shown. The winner will get a lucky French Angel gold coin -- the one they say Napoleon carried
throughout his
campaigns until he lost it . . . . .the day before Waterloo. As Darkhorse suggests the entry-post
must also include
some reference as to what the future might bring by the end of the year (for posterity's sake). As
always, the post
must conclude with how all of this relates to gold and gold ownership -- and it is there that the
worm turns, where
the contest will decided. The runners up -- two of them -- will receive a Mexican Azteca silver

First time posters will receive a one-ounce U.S. Silver Eagle but in order to claim the price you
must indicate that
you are a first-time poster with Jill Snyder ( This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ). The post must be an entry into
the main contest --
"Alan Greenspan, Maestro or Music Man." First time posts in the price guessing contest (see
below) do not count
toward the Silver Eage Prize. Pls include your current mailing address.

The posting contest will go from this moment through Sunday, December 9, 2001 when midnight graces the purple
mountain majesties.

* * * * * * * * * * *

site stewardR Powell asked, "Michael, what do you see/hear of the availability of silver?"#6651512/6/01; 14:48:19

Passing through the room on my way elsewhere I saw your question and remembered hearing the answer provided not long ago. I looked into the matter and found this following post from early November. I hope it helps. --Randy

USAGOLD (11/9/01; 09:42:38MT - msg#: 65008)

To: Galearis, Rhody, Netking

Though I would like to think that the lack of one hundred ounce silver bars in the market is the result of a shortage, in the interest of objective analysis, I need to point out that the reason for that is rather straight-forward. They (the refiners) don't make them anymore, but make 1000 ounce industrial bars instead. And the reason for that is lack of investor demand at this time. (Not to say that that might not change at some point in the future.)

Aside: At the same time, I would like to get more information on the chronic premium problems with the silver Eagles.

I was asked some time back to find out what I could about the possible silver shortage and I did make some phone calls and got a quick education. I'll reduce my findings with respect to the future of silver to two words and let all of the silver bulls sort out their meaning:

Warren Buffet

One must also take into consideration, as I said in the ABCs of Gold Investing, silver is a solid inflation hedge but remains to be proven as a deflation hedge. What that means is that one would not hold onto a silver position through thick and thin like they would gold. At the same time, for those looking for a spec, silver has some merit -- once the role of "he who holds the keys" is fully understood. [...]

MK and I have previously conversed about this issue, and I can assure you that the finer points are more easily expressed in spoken conversation. If you'd like to receive the full quality of MK's input on these various precious metals matters, I strongly suggest you pick up the phone and give him a call. That's what he's there for, and he loves doing what he does. -R.

LeighSite Steward - Argentinos and Uruguayan Pesos#6651612/06/01; 15:13:23

Dear Randy: My son's fifth-grade class is studying South America, and they have to do projects relating to South America. One of my son's projects will be to bring in a gold Argentino 5 peso and a gold Uruguayan 5 peso. Last year in your information sheet, you said that one Argentino 5 peso coin equals 500 trillion original pesos in paper form. Does that mean they cost 500 trillion today? How much (approximately) would one coin cost in Argentina (and Uruguay)? Has the amount changed much in the last year, and especially in the last week?

Thanks very much!! They're beautiful little coins, and I'm VERY glad I have them, especially as I read about Argentina's current problems!

The CoinGuyRoach on the Recovery Bubble#6651712/6/01; 15:51:07


Just checked in to see what had been posted on the forum today. Upon a precursory perusing, I particularly liked the post from Miner49er, good sound reasoning from where I stand. Also, "The Stranger" stepped in with his wisdom. Always glad to see your posts, lets me know you're still out there.

Today's commentary from Roach(MWD)is an especially good read. When I've felt as though I've lost my bearing, he always seems to get me back on course.

Well, it looks like I've got my reading cut out for me...

Canuck, hang in there,

The CoinGuy

R PowellSite Steward#6651812/6/01; 16:36:31

Good work as usual, thanks. I remember reading it and thinking that, as is usual for the silver market, definitive answers are hard to come by. It is indeed plausible that small bar production would be cut back if demand were scarse. Small bar production might also decline if there were not enough for all size bars with larger industrial size bars easier to deal with. I guess we need to keep our ears and eyes open as usual. Thanks!

site stewardThe Rest of the Story...#6651912/6/01; 16:58:26

You know, I looked at a price chart and realized how I really managed to undersell MK's competence in my previous post.

In an effort to be brief, I only excerpted the portion of his post that was pertinent to answering RPowell's question. This is the concluding portion of MK's November 9th post that I omitted.

(MK continues...)
Personally, for a spec item, I like palladium at these prices better, but that's a personal preference and not investment advice as such holdings are very risky to say the least. Lastly, I would consider either play a minor aspect of the portfolio with gold playing a much more aggressive, prominent and central role (given the times in which we live.)

Gold for the long run.

Silver for a spec. . .caveat emptor.

Thank you


Well, I've got to hand it to the guy. At the time his post was written, palladium was going for $325 per ounce. Now, less than one month later, palladium is up to $390. Sometimes I get caught up in the news and forget to fully appreciate that I have a friend IN the metals markets *right here* as a valuable resource. All the more reason to get comfortable with the idea of giving him and his staff a call with your investment interests and questions. (And don't worry, you won't ever have to deal with me -- even accidentally).

Randy (far away at The Tower)

site stewardPeso Inflation by Many Names#6652012/6/01; 17:14:08

I'm not surprised to hear that you like your South American coins. I know that I like mine very much, particularly the Argentinos.

Sounds like your son's class will be enjoying a nice presentation and getting a solid education at the same time.

The URL above may be of help to you in this matter. Let me know if more is needed.


(Excerpt from my presentation last year at the above URL)
Special Pre-1933 Limited On-line Offer
The Uruguayan 5 Pesos Gold Coin

As demonstrated in our previous offering of the German 20 mark gold coin, if history teaches anything, it is that government cannot be trusted to manage money. But unlike the flash ending of the 1923 German mark (where it required 726 billion paper marks to buy what one mark could purchase in 1914,) it seems to be the sad legacy of many Latin American currencies to suffer "an endless death" at the inflationary hands of their official custodians. And so it has been with the fate of the Uruguayan peso during the latter half of the 20th century.

In 1930, the Uruguayan peso was of slightly greater value than the U.S. dollar. (Twenty U.S. dollars were "worth" the 0.9675 troy ounces of gold contained in the $20 double-eagle gold piece, whereas twenty Uruguayan pesos were "worth" the 1.0004 troy ounces of gold contained in four of these 5-peso facevalue coins.) As inflation took its toll, the New Peso was introduced in 1975 to replace the old peso at a rate of 1 NP for 1,000 old pesos. But alas, the New Peso also fell victim to these same inflationary trends, and was itself supplanted in turn at a rate of 1-for-1,000 NP in March 1993 by the "newer" peso which is currently in circulation today at 12 pesos [(1/1,000 NP) (1/1,000 old pesos)] per U.S. dollar.

When measured today using gold as the benchmark, since 1930 the U.S. dollar has been reduced to one-fourteenth of its former gold value--as currently available on the spot gold market. The original Uruguayan peso has fared considerably worse. Adjusting for the two thousand-peso "reverse splits," it would require savings of more than 3.4 BILLION of the original paper pesos to equal the single ounce of gold comprised by four of these featured coins bearing 20 pesos total face value.

As with Germany, for those who were wise enough to be holding their currency in the form of these gold coins instead of paper notes or bank deposit accounts, the intrinsic value of the gold in the coin preserved their purchasing power for real goods over time, thus preserving their monetary wealth. Today, after 70 years of inflation in Uruguay, each 5 peso gold coin retains the same purchasing power as found in 856,000,000 of those original "old pesos" that were unfortunately held in the form of paper or bank deposits.

The CoinGuyA Snippit from PruBear's Lance Lewis' Column Tonight#6652112/6/01; 17:16:25

I'm wondering if any of Argentina's citizens have bought any gold? I thought I heard today, the Argentinian government was meddling with retiree's pensions. Anyone who has seen the article, I would appreciate it if you would post a link for me. Now the snippit:

The IMF denied Argentina their $1.3 bil December loan yesterday evening, which now likely means default/devaluation will likely come sooner rather than later. There is also the talk that Argentina may dollarize, which would have bearish implications for the dollar. In a bizarre twist, the MerVal actually rose 11 percent today as Argentines, fearing seizure of bank deposits, yanked money out of banks and bought stocks. Here's how one trader put it: "People are desperately escaping from banks. They're calling us frantically wanting to invest in stocks, even government bonds. That's how bad it is. They don't even care where their money goes, as long as it's not in banks."

I hope BB doesn't mind? This looks "Grim".

The CoinGuy

slingshotCanuck#6652212/6/01; 17:37:21

Hate to see a fellow Goldbug feeling down in the dumps. If I may say a few words to cheer you up.

Its never to late to buy physical.
It is still dirt cheap.
TPTB still want the price of gold to be low.
Gold still can be acquired.

A wise man knows his limitations. Get a plan. Keep it simple. One ounce at a time. If you can afford more, all the better.

With all this stuff going on, TPTB must be sucking down the
pepto bismol by the gallon.
Hang in there, Canuck

The CoinGuyRPowell#6652312/6/01; 17:39:49

I have a friend who is a large dealer in the West. We were discussing Geopolitical events two-weeks ago and the
mention of silver bars did come up.

He told me, one of the smaller dealers he supplies called and they were chuckling over this demand they've heard for 100 oz bars. He said he'd had 18 of those bars gathering dust in his safe for quite some time, thought he'd put them up on the wire and see if the premiums he heard being paid for the bars was true. Needless to say, he received 280 bids for them in short order. They're not laughing now.

I don't know whether these bars are being melted for industrial size bars, or are being hoarded by small investors, but I do know the "action" has caught quite a few's people attention that are in the position to jump on this bandwagon with force, and are watching the situation closely. I might also add their also watching the situation at the Treasury in Canada and US too.

I "again" would say it probably is best to consult Michael's opinion on the situation, this could be a speculative play, or it simply could be a flash in the pan.

I myself, have personally stayed away from these areas of the market, and prefer to play the tortoise, than the hare.
I've always believed in accumulation over the long haul, and let the cards/currency fall where they fall. My gains equal the gains on my properties at this point, and this is good enough for me.

The CoinGuy

Black BladeAnalyst sees sharply higher natural gas prices this winter #6652412/6/01; 18:25:09


HOUSTON, Dec. 6 -- US natural gas prices should jump sharply in the first quarter as demand jumps in the face of limited supply. Marshall Adkins, managing director of Raymond James & Associates, Houston, made that prediction at an International Association of Drilling Contractors conference in Houston. Adkins and other speakers warned of industry's limits in meeting natural gas demand, both from onshore and Gulf of Mexico fields. "We may need $4/Mcf or higher gas prices to even stabilize Gulf of Mexico production," he said. Adkins said gulf production will decline because new prospects are smaller than before. Meanwhile, he said industry is drilling deeper -- 40% deeper since 1983 -- setting a trend of higher costs per well. Despite a tripling of rig activity in the past 2 years, he said US gas production is slipping anyway and "in the next 5 years it may go down big."

The industry's drilling performance has been generally poor in recent years as the focus shifts to deeper and harder to tap reservoirs. "We have to increase our drilling efficiency." Paul Hilton, TotalFinaElf E&P USA Inc.'s senior vice-president for offshore, agreed industry's prospects in the gulf are getting much smaller. "We are going deeper in water and drilling depths, and deeper in risk when we do." Another problem, he said, is that some of those prospects are 100 miles from existing infrastructure, requiring a "high dollar investment per barrel of oil equivalent."

Black Blade: Due to other distractions in the World today, focus has shifted from the "Energy Crisis." The "Energy Crisis" hasn't gone away. As outlined above the major natural gas fields are depleting and targets are smaller all the while costs are rising. It was an "Energy Crisis" that triggered this recession and any new "Energy Shocks" will cap any recovery and could even aggravate the current recession further. Meanwhile an economic recovery will increase energy demand at a time when exploration and production is beginning to slowdown. Also virtually every new power plant is natural gas fired. Even so, Congress has shelved the "Energy Bill" for now. As Warren Buffett has said, this recession will likely last a very long time.

Black BladeInteresting Posts Today#6652512/6/01; 18:29:55

It is always good to read Farfel's writings. I see he is still in "good form." Cheers!

Good to see that The Stranger is still dropping by occasionally.

Now we just need to have Koan drop in to give us a good old "Bear" story.

- Black Blade

Black BladeArgentina seizes pension funds, on brink of default#6652612/6/01; 19:07:21


BUENOS AIRES, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Argentina's cash-starved government seized local pension fund money on Thursday in a desperate effort to keep the country's economy afloat in the face of foreign loan cutoffs. Protesters threw eggs and stones at the Central Bank building, amid growing public anger at President Fernando de la Rua's government and there were signs that a de facto devaluation of the peso currency had already begun. Economists warned that without international help, there was little hope of the South American nation of 37 million people avoiding history's worst sovereign debt default.

``Once I get all my money, I'm going to take it to Uruguay or put it in an account in the Cayman Islands or New York. I have no trust at all in the financial system or the government,'' said bank customer Federico, 32. One well-dressed woman thumped a cash machine at a Citibank branch demanding U.S. dollars which never came. Television showed pictures of labor union protesters throwing stones and eggs at the Central Bank building in central Buenos Aires. A window was broken and graffiti on the wall of the building read: ``The Nation Is In Danger, We Must Struggle''.

Black Blade: (Para mi amigos Argentinos) ¡Compre Oro no los D--lares! ¡No conf'e en el gobierno! Proteja ustedes mismos contra el desastre econ--mico y compre oro para seguridad econ--mica.

This is the way it always happens isn't it? Carrot and the Stick - The rulers get fat off the sweat and blood of the serfs.

MK and Randy - perhaps Argentina will shake loose of a few more of those Argentinos. It would be nice to see more of those offered again. "Gold to the people" ya know.

Black BladeSAP makes surprise US job cuts#6652712/6/01; 19:16:33


LONDON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Europe's biggest software group SAP on Thursday said it would cut seven percent of U.S. jobs or about 300 posts despite recent reassurances of a strong sales recovery following the September attacks on the United States.

Black Blade: 300 more off to the "Bone Pile."

Black BladeUS CREDIT OUTLOOK-A grim jobs report could halt bond sell-off#6652812/6/01; 19:23:26


NEW YORK, Dec 6 (Reuters) - A grim employment report on Friday could halt the downward momentum that has gripped U.S. Treasuries this week by casting doubt on the growing view that an economic recovery could come sooner than anticipated. Wall Street economists polled by Reuters estimate U.S. employers shed nearly 190,000 jobs from payrolls in November, bringing the unemployment rate to 5.6 percent compared with 5.4 percent in October. That would be the highest jobless rate in more than five years, following a shock 0.5 percentage-point spike in the prior month. Such a rise would suggest to many investors that the potential for economic growth is still dampened by a weak labor market.

Black Blade: In the morning we shall see. Many have no more benefits and are no longer counted and others have taken lower paying positions. This does not bode well for a rapid economic recovery. In a word - "GRIM"

Black BladeClorox to cut 8 pct of salaried U.S. jobs#6652912/6/01; 19:27:28


OAKLAND, Calif., Dec 6 (Reuters) - The Clorox Co. (NYSE:CLX), a maker of household products such as bleach, said on Thursday it will lay off 260 U.S. employees, or about 8 percent of its salaried U.S. work force , in an effort to cut costs and save $40 million to $45 million annually by 2003.

Black Blade: OK, bleached "Bones?" Off to the "Bone Pile."

Black BladeToro to cut 9 pct of work force#6653012/6/01; 19:34:21


The Bloomington, Minnesota-based company, which late last month closed an Indiana plant and shifted manufacturing to facilities elsewhere, said the move will eliminate about 440 jobs.

Black Blade: More nonessential "Bones" are cast aside. There are many more job losses than can be listed here from small companies across the US. This is not the sign of a recovering economy in spite of what Wall Street Trolls like Jim Cramer and Larry Kudlow say.

CanuckYou guys are the best !#6653112/6/01; 19:54:17

Wow, the compassion, the bond and the affection I feel for you guys is beyond words.

I am going to re-read the days notes, I am sure I will have to make a point of a couple statements. Nerves of steel and hearts of gold come first to mind.

Truth is paramount and the future is clouded, it will take supreme confidence and a stellar vision to see what comes forth. The world is shaded, it is greedy and crooked, I fear for my children. I have shed a tear a million times wishing for righteousness, you guys have proved to me today that I am not alone, the people here at this forum are representative of truth.

The truth shall prevail so help me God.

I am not a religious man, but in my last few posts I have shed my skin. I know God does not have a '$' stamped on his forehead and I know God does not count money. This world has gone to hell and I know this is not his vision.

Enough religion.

I cashed in a 'volatile' mutual fund for a 'balanced' fund today and a) I don't know if it will do 'better' (whatever that means) and b) I don't care. I stopped at my local, yocal exchange currency 'store' and bought 20 oz. of silver. It's the first physical I have bought in 4 months. It felt really, REALLY good. There was a 10 gram JM bar of silver that cost $2, that's 2 dollars Canadian. I told the teller it was a Christmas gift for the dog. She looked at me like I was from Mars, I glared back as if she was from Jupiter. I lost my buddy beagle this summer, beagle #2 deserves the best, yes?

Did I tell you about the beagle sniffing out gold at 1300 metres? ;) (Watch your back yards!!!!)

The 19 year old daughter drew up her Christmas list; televisions, CD 'burners', cash. You know the drill. I told her we should go to Afganistan and do an gift exchange with the children there. Eyes rolled, give me a break. I guess I'm out-of-touch with the entire 'freaking' world.

Back to you guys.

I wondered too far into the 'profit' world. I exchanged labour for paper and have been burned, not critically, thanks to old-time heros like Stranger, Galearis and Megatron and new time heros like uponroof and slingshot. I am making a critical error quoting names without reference to todays posts, I thank all.

I am in the process of regrouping, there will be a golden day friends, it is not a question of if but when. One MUST keep their head screwed on straight through these bizarre times. I will be there, I promise. You guys and the hoards of physical gold advocates that follow us have my personal invitation to follow. Can anyone with a conscience tell me that the world is a better place in the last few years, last generation?

This day is for you guys, tomorrow will be ours. When gold hits 4 digits the first half-dozen rounds (in Ottawa) are on me!


Waveridercanuck#6653212/6/01; 20:23:37

Glad to see that you're feeling better. The world is a shady, crooked place and it may not be a better place than 10 years ago. We live in tumultuous times when it's all the more necessary to chart your course and not allow the worldly seductions and distractions that bombard us every day to deter you. Prepare your storm anchor but also remember to take notice every day of the beauty that *is* in the world.
ps - glad to hear the dog survived the week (smile)

CanuckQuotables#6653312/6/01; 20:38:39


A wise man knows his limitations

R Powell

I'm still somewhere between completely broke and outrageously wealthy.


you should never play if you can't afford to lose.


Paper crosses can be heavy

Cavan Man

When they have reached the summit of grandeur, some minute and unsuspected cause commonly affects their ruin, and the empire of the world is transferred to some other place.


A dirty nuke is all it takes


But at least with investing in the metal, one KNOWS that one is not the riding a buffalo over a cliff with the rest of the herd


That is the most important thing to me in these days where analysts and investment brokers are the lowest of the low.


Once an understanding of fiat deception is gained you are then 'saved'. 'Sanctification' (the moving towards physical only holdings) if you will, ocurrs at each one's individual pace. While all are in fact saved, old temptations (paper vehicles) still have some power over them during the sactification process. Obviously once in 'physical only' the downside risk (Hell) becomes zero if you have gained an understanding of real intrinsic value versus man's imposed value.


What did the wealthy man say?? Do exactly what everyone tells you not to do.

Max Rabbitz

The slightest hint of a movement can cause the entire herd to change direction.


What they have is the fascination with the hunt, not the talent for hunting. Unless you have the gift to discern the movements of the beast, and the will to act decisively, you will lose.


Simplify. First get debt free. then save nuts for the long winter ahead...there is still time.

Canuck@ Waverider#6653412/6/01; 20:42:49

"Prepare your storm anchor but also remember to take notice every day of the beauty that *is* in the world"

And today's beauty is your word Ms. Waverider of Vancouver.

WaveriderCA$ and Gold#6653512/6/01; 20:51:07

Galearis and Robot Guy:

Gelearis - your subjective impressions of recent trends are correct Sir. I ran correlations from 1981 to 2000 - Ca$ in US cents and POG in US$. The coefficient is not significant - or neutral as you suggested. I ran the same in Ca$ against the POG in Ca$ and I couldn't calculate the coefficient - the scatterplot was all over the place.
Robot Guy - hope this blows a little wind back into your sails - there's always hope :)

PizzGeneral Observation#6653612/6/01; 20:57:44

Lots of talk all over about silver. Sometimes I think most get so involved over day to day, hour by hour, minute by minute OVER-ANALYZATION that we can't see the forest for the trees. Small silver is starting to be in short supply and the price is jumping. Gold hasn't yet. I'll tell you what my PM guy told me last week.

I'm lucky, I have a mint here in the soggy Northwest 10 minutes from my office. Every month (for the past three since I started "listening" to most all here) I've bought a little physical and I ask a few questions.

The ratio he sells (Ag:Au) is about 20:1 (right now). I said why? If I've got to pack it around I want gold. Simple he says, right now the small silver buyers are worried blue collar types facing layoffs at Boeing and all their suppliers (big business here). They never were big into the markets, little savings, but the ones with enough sense come in and buy 5 oz a payday. THEY CAN'T AFFORD GOLD. Kids, mortgages, food and clothes.

The potential gold buyers' are still jumping back into SM with both feet trying to get even. The next down turn will chase more into silver, and a few into gold (the ones who get out earllier). When TPTB crash it some more, the more well heeled will start pulling small quantities of gold off the market.

OK, I said, what next. He said wait till the the small bond players, small business owners, and the guy's in CD's start to get nervous. (Wave 3??) Finally the big boys (big bonds, CD's etc.) climb in like 79-80. (Wave 5??) I'll still sell more silver by weight, but the gold boys will be throwing the bucks.

It's starting, the big boys are getting nervous, the lease rate chart is starting to look like the polygraph on the Green River Killer (one of my golf buddy's wife worked side by side with this guy for 15 years - says he's nice.)

Anyway, thank you all for the education, I'm learning a lot of econ and how the world works, but PATIENCE is the key. Everone here is going to make a lot of money over the long run - lets hope it IS the long run so we can enjoy spending a little of it.

Have a good evening and a great Friday.

I don't agree with the mess our elected officals have got us in, but we the people have to take a little credit for the problem. I thought about it a bit tonite as I

Andúril"When gold hits 4 digits the first half-dozen rounds (in Ottawa) are on me!"#6653712/6/01; 20:59:46

Astonishing. In a moment of jest you tip your cards for all the world to see the weakness of your hand! Despite all help, your bluff is called and this obsession with 'units of account' and their accumulation remains. A fog and your personal demon.

You must put substance ahead of appearance, lest you sell your life for "many digits" of bolivar- or peso-knowledge for which you have no need. In time, even the hungry fool shall learn that the brownish banana has more value than several pretty wax fruits feeding only ego.

Take your guidance from those here and you may more surely come to enjoy the fruits of the living.

Canuck@ Waverider#6653812/6/01; 21:01:14

Just noticed your mention of my dog, thank you. I was thinking about drilling a small hole in the 10 gram silver bar and hanging it with his I.D. bracelets. The first precious metal advocate dog?!

It's been very warm in Ottawa the last couple weeks, I heard a fellow mention weather like Vancouver! Looks like a possibility of a green X-Mas, first in a long, long time.

I noticed a post of yours a couple days ago, very heavy on the math. Are you inclined that way?

It's 11:00 (EST), must depart, golden dreams beckon.

PizzPosting not as easy as it looks#6653912/6/01; 21:01:49

Sorry bout the last two lines on previous post - another subject I didn't delete.
Canuck@ Andúril#6654012/6/01; 21:06:05

"4 digits" was not defined mon ami!!

A bientot.

AndúrilAnd so your point is now clearly made!#6654112/6/01; 21:25:13

After gold finally hits four digits (your fingers), that is indeed THE proper time to provide for the rounds in Ottawa.
goldenboyGreenspan: Coke ? Pepsi ? What`s the Difference? There is nothing new under the sun.#6654212/6/01; 22:04:47

Whether Greenspan is considered at present a maestro or flim flam man is simply irrelevant in the long term course of history. At best, he will be judged to be one of the best or worst coin clippers of his era, depending on your point of view. Were he not here, THEY would find someone else to do their bidding.

Suffice it to say that someone figured out how to make gold someone else`s liability during his tenure and the US has entered into "Beggar all thy neighbour" economic hegemony for a while longer than otherwise would have been the case.
During Greenspan`s lifetime, the Central Banks have gone from owning 70% of the worlds` gold to 30%. Only 30% of other peoples money to go, and we know that many participants will not play chicken to the last ounce!

What is really interesting is that THEY could have gotten to this Ayn Rand disciple and previous gold advocate in the first place. Know your enemy I suppose. He has become an Anti-Rourke! Not that I am an advocate of the enlightened selfishness philosophy of the spiritually devoid Ayn Rand.
Sometimes, I think he simply wants to be the protagonist in the whole gold versus fiat play and be alive to see the outcome!
Anyway, my verdict is neither maestro nor music man, just another coin clipper on the way back to reality!

RobotGuy@Waverider#6654312/7/01; 00:24:41

Young single male that I am (30), I just got home from having a few barley malts (2:25 am) and the first thing I did was log on. Thank you for admitting to me that the world isn't functioning to traditional standards. I will keep up my hopes. Thank you for the advanced research brother!!! As for me!?! I need some zzzzzzzs!!

Go Dollar!!

BelgianR. Powell : Is our economy terminally ill ?#6654412/7/01; 01:48:56

No Sir, Not the economy is terminally ill, but its masters and managers are totally mis-guiding the natural process of the economy. The "interventionists", who aren't economical actors, must be pushed out. They are parasiting on and colluding with the economic activity as such. Regulation and de-regulation, are the causes for permanent mis-management, wich are leading us to cathastrophies. Normal economic activity is a self-regulating process. And there will always be people who want to steer it. This leads to un-natural hyperconcentrations and disturbing imbalances.

Too much state, and declining individuality ! The harmony of diversity is in the process of being destroyed.

The zero rate policy and artificial currency proportions are the most visible external characteristics of the general mis-management. The boom > bust procedure/cause.
The past 20 years will enter history as the super-managed/regulated, economy period. Big scale DE-REGULATION must follow for recovery. A simple "back to normal", where *Gold*, will automatically regain its role.

Interventionists are taking decisions that a normal individual would never mistakenly do. Are you going to give your neighbour a credit with a 2% interest rate, or refinance his house for 120% ? Are you going to subsidize your ailing competitors ? Are you going to bail out your brothers and sisters ? Are you going to run your business with 120% of debt to assets ? etc...etc...

It has to get worse, before it can turn for the better. 101 logics.

CanuckEuro Countdown#6654512/7/01; 04:52:16

25 days

US$/Euro 0.892 -0.001

Gold $274.65 +0.35

site stewardINSIDE FOREIGN AFFAIRS -- an update#6654612/7/01; 04:56:56

International Editor Holger Jensen discusses the following two topics:

HEADLINE: Sharon, Arafat dueling possibly for one last time

Both 73, Ariel Sharon and Yasser Arafat have been adversaries for decades, ever since one was a soldier in the young state of Israel and the other a guerrilla leader of the Palestinians it left homeless. Both call each other "terrorist" and both are accused of war crimes.

Sharon accuses Arafat of directing the intifada, calling him a "thug" and a "terrorist." Arafat protests that he cannot control the suicide bombers of Hamas and Islamic Jihad -- even his authority over Fatah and other Palestinian security organs has become questionable -- while maintaining that Israel invites terrorism by continuing its occupation of Palestinian land and engaging in "state terrorism" against the Palestinian people. Whoever is right, the death toll is nearing 1,000, with Palestinian casualties outnumbering Israeli 3-to-1.


HEADLINE: Wherever Arafat jumps, ice is dangerously thin

Arafat was roundly condemned by many Palestinians for becoming "Israel's policeman," but got away with it because he was then engaged in serious peace talks that promised Palestinian statehood. Now the peace process is dead, Arafat's popularity is waning and he has no political gains to convince the Palestinians that a cease-fire is justified. Gazans are already protesting his latest arrests with signs saying: "The fighters are behind the walls of the Authority's prison while the collaborators with the Israelis are free." So, is Arafat leading the intifada as Israel charges or is he the "collaborator" reviled in Gaza?

site stewardJim Puplava's 'Storm Watch' of the past week: Reinflating the Bubble#6654712/7/01; 05:01:16

(excerpts from the URL above)

Like the Internet bubble that ran between 1997-99, current earnings don't back the recent rise in technology shares. Like then and like now, the rise is without any regard to fundamentals or financials. The 40% rally in tech stocks since September 21 is running way ahead of fundamentals and it could lead to another sharp correction. This is a momentum-driven market and nothing more. Most stocks are going up against a weak outlook for profits and a declining economy with very little signs of improvement. The bubble is back and it is being reinflated by the Fed, hype, hope and hyperbole. The question now is, How long will it last?

Everybody knows price and the latest news, but nothing below the surface. Ask questions about real earnings, macroeconomics, microeconomics, global economies, and monetary inflation policies, nobody knows or cares. Where the price is at the moment and what is currently flashing on their screen is all they know. Everything else is much too complicated.

This lack of understanding of economics or investing is why so many people got burned when the market bubble burst. Devoid of independent thinking, they don't process what they read and hear. It is why they will get burned again. They fall victim to trends and fads and have simply become followers. They are easy prey and like sheep are being led to the slaughter again.

(click link to read more)

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Black BladeRussian supply fears fuel palladium price rise#6655012/7/01; 06:09:30


LONDON, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Palladium took centre stage on the precious metals market on Friday morning in Europe, as prices jumped $19 an ounce on the back of nervousness about Russian supply, analysts said.

Black Blade: Pd and Pt supply concerns continue as noted previously. The Russians rauded the tockpiles in 1998. BTW, look at the near term silver lease rates (backwardation).

Black BladeCanada Nov jobless rate at 2-year high of 7.5 pct#6655112/7/01; 06:13:52


OTTAWA, Dec 7 (Reuters) - An increase in the number of people looking for work pushed Canada's unemployment rate up to 7.5 percent in November, the highest level for more than two years, Statistics Canada said on Friday.

Black Blade: "You want fries with that…" US unemployment data is released in about 20 minutes.

SpartacusProductivity#6655212/7/01; 06:26:25

WASHINGTON (Reuters) — U.S. worker productivity grew at a weaker pace than expected in the third quarter, with the number of hours workers spent on the job falling at the fastest rate in more than a decade as the nation struggled to pull out of recession, a government report Thursday showed. -
Black BladeUnemployment Data - VERY GRIM#6655312/7/01; 06:35:57

The "Bone Pile" keeps on growing higher than expected. Unemployment is now at 5.7% vs. 5.4% in October. A grim Christmas for many US households. A loss of 331,000 jobs in November and October numbers have been revised downward much further. This is "GRIM" data as it confirms that the economy is getting worse - not better as the Trolls of Wall Street have been screeching over the last several weeks. Now they are screeching that it is a backward looking number - how typical. Look for the FED to panic and lower rates again.

- Black Blade

Black BladeU.S. unemployment jumps#6655412/7/01; 06:44:14

The U.S. unemployment rate jumped to 5.7 percent in November as employers cut 331,000 jobs, the government said Friday, as the country struggled along in recession. Wall Street forecasts called for payrolls to fall by 201,000 with unemployment rising to 5.6 percent. This is the worst back-to-back monthly decline since the early 1980's recession. CNBC Troll Larry Kudlow is really stretching for an explanation why it is now a good time to invest. Some bimbo Marcy Rosell - yep, another CNBC Trollette is really struggling to come up with some reasons why the economy will recover because of lower employment. Yeah, that worked in the 1930's, 1970's, etc. huh? Look for the cheerleading Trolls and Trolletes to come out of the woodwork to pump the markets.

- Black Blade

Black BladeEconomy Kept Bleeding Jobs in November#6655512/7/01; 06:54:45


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy shed jobs at a searing pace for a second month in a row during November as the unemployment rate shot up to its highest level in more than six years, the government said on Friday in a report implying the recession may bite deeper and longer than thought.

The Labor Department said another 331,000 jobs were lost last month -- far worse than the 189,000 that Wall Street economists had anticipated -- on top of a revised 468,000 that were cut in October. Previously, the department said 415,000 jobs were shed in October. The October and November job losses were the worst for any two months in more than 20 years, since May and June of 1980, department officials said.

Black Blade: Look for the data to get worse going forward. This is not a typical recession. It follows one of the most rabid speculative bubbles of recent history. This next year after the holidays portends to get much worse. Get out of debt! Get several months of cash to meet expenses, get food stores and basic necessities, and get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance. Prepare as you would for an extended period of no income or as if there were a natural disaster. If nothing happens then fine - but at least you will be prepare for the unexpected - after all is that not the function of "insurance"?

HenriBelgian#6655612/7/01; 07:14:57

Don't know what happened to your most recent seems to have dissappeared but I fully agreed with it. Wish I could find it again.

For the case of Post 66510 I think that one has to consider that negative interest rates are not only a possibility but in terms of a real return (after inflation?)a current reality.

What is so magical about breaking the zero interest barrier that people do not seriously consider it as a viable alternative?

Someone please correct me if I am totally wrong but should governments continue to print worthless (unbacked except by an exceptionally large pile of bad debt which was formerly considered as debt that could be made good) fiat without restraint, the only recourse to right the economic (price setting) function of the fiat is to destroy the excess in a controlled burn manner. This would be a de facto deflation. Her is how it works.

Govt prints enough fiat to cover the bad debt sector by issuing loans that need to pay back only part of the principle lent...say 50% in some time in the future. These loans then slow the rate of credit creation in the same manner that has been done with declining interest. So not only is the loan interest free but the govt pays you to take the cash.

Competing fiat currency regimes like the yen (jury is out on Euro) can then jockey for that position that offers the most potential for future worth of the fiat as demand driven deflation goes into full swing. That country with the best record of eliminating bad debt from books and replacing it with productivity based gains wins the race back to sovereign solvency.

The zero IR gray as it may be into and out of negative real return (Fiat destruction...slow burn) is a dip in this direction. Burning...the removal of fiat from circulation along with all its offspring credit created. If the bad debts can be retired along with the burned fiat, the newly cooked books can be brought into balance. In a way this has been accomplished on a minor scale with the dot com mania and the SM bubble. No earnings and trillions of fiat wiped out. This debt reckoning though falls on the wrong hands (individual consumer). The banks are the ones that need to recognize and destroy the bad debts incurred instead of continually rolling them over. The govt program must key the negative IR loans to bad debt destruction including govt borrowing which is by definition a "bad" (read as non-productive)debt upon the masses.

Consider this as thought works in progress please. If anyone feels up to the task please feel free to jump into the fray.

The advantage of this system is that it retains the current fiat without having to "accutely "devalue" it. Its integrity is restored over time and it may be considered a directed austerity program. Govt created the bad debt it must bite the bullet to relieve the people of its burden. Less govt anyone?

HenriBelgian #6655712/7/01; 07:24:05

Oh there it is 66544. Well said Sir!
PizzBlack Blade#6655812/7/01; 07:42:09

I completely understand your concern, and agree with most of your "insurance" albeit for different reasons.

If our current situation deteriorates as fast as you are implying, yes, stockpile a few months of food, water, (you forgot amunition), but only if you're anticipating enough terrorist activity to totally disrupt life as we know it.
Personally I think it is a possibility and a good idea, but not because of an expected bounce in unemployment.

As far as getting out of debt, I'm recommending to people to get liquid. If you are not liquid and are afraid of being in the bone pile, borrow as much as you can long term (while you can) at a fixed rate. Liquidity will keep you going longer than being debt free. Pay off variable debt as best you can and keep cash and PMs. If you have the ability to get out of debt and still have liquidity, by all means do it. Capital one just offered me 15K @ 9.9 for 84 months with a $255.00 payment. I may do it and buy PM's. My humble accounting brain figures I've got a probable upside of 100+% return if things really go to hell, and if they don't, I can still sell off a little to meet needs, make the payment and ride out the storm.

Just a humble bean-counter's opinion.

SpartacusGold#6655912/7/01; 07:42:57

"The perennial debate over gold is as old as civilization. What makes money valuable? Why do we happily accept some pieces of paper and refuse others?"
HenriGo Cabal, Go! Take Henri to the little Philharmonic#6656012/7/01; 08:08:29

$272 is my Mark good start on it already
Mr GreshamPizz, R Powell, Henri#6656112/7/01; 08:26:48

Pizz: "Liquidity will keep you going longer than being debt free. " I've been waiting for someone to put it like that, my thoughts exactly (BB: I agree on debt-free principle, but it's hard to change one's net worth overnight -- Pizz is recommending adjustments to its allocations, and this is definitely the time to lock in fixed rates. The only question remaining for me is how much liquidity to keep in $ reserves (and where) vs into PMs. Gee, don't I sound like a Euro CB now???)

R Powell: Why don't I enter contests around here? 'Cause someone always beats me to my own best ideas! If I wrote my musings on AG now, everyone would think I was plagiarizing you. So thanks, for sparing me the writing effort, and, for putting my own thoughts in better words than I was likely to. (And yours was the only one I've had time to read yet -- probably half the others will nail it beautifully, too. What a bunch!)

Henri -- Glad you love music, too. I got to walk (very fast) past the Phil once, while changing train stations in Vienna... (Q: Is the Phil the only currently-issued European gold coin, until the ECB does one?)

Galearis@Waverider#6656212/7/01; 09:25:55

I am glad I started that discussion on the the CAN$ tracking gold and never dreamed someone would pick up that particular ball and run such a labour intensive distance with it. Purchasing pms is often the juggling act with price vs exchange rate intermixed with all the rest of life's little challenges that get in the way. Thanks.

If you like doing these little projects (and I suspect you do) you might like to visit the above web site for a source of a lot of raw data. There is a nice section on currencies.

Best regards,


GalearisSilver lease rates....#6656312/7/01; 09:28:07


seem to indicate some considerable disturbance in the force.

Forgot to post this..


PizzMr. Gresham - How much liquidity in $ and where.#6656412/7/01; 09:40:17

Assuming your liquidity will be in currency and PM's, you won't need as much currency as you think - expecially if you have credit lines. The Gov and banks will have to provide liquidity - even Argentina is making sure everyone has at least 250 of something a week - gotta eat or face revolution.

Banks will advance liquidity as long as they have money - even if your unemployed. Money is inventory to them and they'll have to put it out just to say in business. If you're on the bone pile you won't be getting a loan to buy a new car or house, but they won't be forcing an employment check if you take a cash advance on your plastic.

I'm in the process of putting as much into PMs as I can. A larger dilema is Au vs. Ag. Which will be easier to liquidate if you need it. Right now I'm thinking equal weight gold vs silver. Silver will be easier to liquidate and that would hopefully leave you Au for capital after the dust settles, and I do honestly believe the gold will more than compensate for the bulk of your fixed rate debt 5 years out.

One thing no one has talked about on any forum that I've seen is the millions of leveraged home owners in these ARM mortgages. THESE ARE TIME BOMBS AND IF YOU HAVE ONE GET THE H*LL OUT NOW WITH A FIXED RATE!!!! Long term rates are NOT going any lower. Again - pay off or convert all variable rate cards and loans into fixed. If not you will lose everything you've got 5 years down the road.

Again - just a humble bean-counter's opinion. (But I do practice what I preach!)

Black BladePizz#6656512/7/01; 09:44:07

In a sense I have to agree with your position. As I have never been in debt and am never really in debt I can't really empathize with that situation. However, I do have some expenditures but I always have more assets (like cash, stocks, hard assets and PMs) on hand than I have debt. I pay for everything up front. I recently bought another work truck (2001 Dodge Ram) for cash (OK so I put it on a credit card which I paid off within a couple of weeks - why hassle a CTR - Cash Transfer Report for the Infernal Revenue Service).

I also keep several months of food on hand which I use and rotate. I also keep a lot of wild game in the freezer and at a local meat processor locker. In fact this weekend I will pick up some elk flesh for consumption. I also went in on the purchase of a young buffalo bull with a couple of friends that we will have butchered in the next few weeks.

I guess I have always figured that if I can't afford something then I can afford to do without. I suppose that once one allows himself or herself to get into a debt position it is very difficult to get out of debt. I have also been quite poor financially in the past and have lived off the land for months at a time (even in winter). One of the advantages of living in the western states. I guess what I am saying is - no body owns me, I own myself and I am the master of my own destiny. I am a sovereign individual and I wouldn't have it any other way.

Everyone has to do what they can for their own particular situation. I am jsut glad that I can sleep very well without the financial worries I see among my friends. Cheers!

- Black Blade

PizzCorrection to last Post#6656612/7/01; 09:46:41

Au to ag should read equal dollars not equal weight

Sorry, trying to post and work at same time!!

PizzBlack Blade - you're lucky#6656712/7/01; 09:58:30

I'm a displaced country boy fighting it out in the city.

I used to have your values and extremely wise money management, but somehow got wound up a bit too far in the "debt" trap like everyone else.

I'll be back in the country within 5 years. Just too much BS in the city. Now I definily have to back to work. Unfortunately I'm one of those unlucky managers that has to make the decisions of which employees go on the "bone pile" this week in order to hopefully save the jobs of the ones we plan to have left. I know "Grim", be thankful you don't have to do it - its tough.

(I work in the car business - you sure didn't let a dealer make too much off of you - good job!!!)


Black BladePizz#6656812/7/01; 10:15:40

We got some snow today so no work - just play. I will take off a couple of hours with a friend and his dog. I have a new Browning 10 gauge pump that "must" be broken in, so we are off to slay some ducks (and maybe Canadian honkers) for a couple of hours. Maybe I will slip by the Orvis shop and check out a new fly rod. Hopefully after the first of the year (February/March) I will reevaluate my holdings and adjust my investment percentages. It looks as if I may increase my weighting in physical Gold and possibly Silver - then I will have to give the castle a call. Cheers!

- Black Blade

Oh yeah, the auto dealer just about fainted when he asked how I wanted to finance the truck purchase after haggling down the price. I said "you take a check or credit card?" I have to admit, I did look a bit scruffy that day as I just came in from the field after bringing in a NG well. It was a lot of fun.

Galearisre Puplava's Storm Watch article#6656912/7/01; 10:16:50

a good read.

This piece quite struck a cord with me especially the anecdotal sections wherein he describes conversations with young investors. His point here is that todays investor goes with the flow and follows pricing moves rather than doing any in-depth research into the fundamentals of each company's health/viability. Of course we all knew this as a factor in bubble creation.

But it also reminded me of a similar topic of discussion in a totally different area. Well, perhaps not that different. I was listening to an academic on education some years back who had spent his life analyzing how high school students processed information presented in the classroom. His premis from his many years of observation was that there was a fundamental change in how the modern student related to the world. He described this behavior as analogous to tribal profiles manifesting in the individuals as being incapable of delving with depth into any topics taught, prone to following fads, being much less curious, having considerable short term memory problems (incapable of remembering what happened last week, for example), and generally less able to think in a linear and logical manner. He noticed this phenominon as a GROUP trait and therefore very worrisome to him as a socially concious teacher.

His argument focused on the computer as being the problem. The students were more used to the instant gratification aspect of being able to "call up" the answers on the internet rather than looking at the raw data and drawing on the grey matter computer we all have in our heads.

A lot of this argument gets lost in this paraphrase, but he concluded that student behavior and learning has fundamentally changed from that of twenty years ago.

Perhaps we are seeing some of these people in the investment community now.



GalearisPrecious metal fraud#6657012/7/01; 10:32:20

Interesting article on the goings on in the Indian jewellry business. Mr. Godsell are you paying attention?


the Bureau of Indian Standards performed a random sampling at 15 jewellery showrooms in the capital. The findings: only three jewellers were selling gold with the acclaimed 22 caratage.

For the rest, it ranged anywhere between 21 to 13 carats. The survey confirmed the worst fears of gold buyers. BIS simultaneously talked about the certification it has put in place to safeguard the interests of gold buyers.

Uh huh,,,,
Time to get back to the real world....


Tommy PBAD NEWS FOR ANGLO GOLD, OH WELL!!#6657112/7/01; 10:56:31

Good article came from Auz's
PizzBlack Blade -- 10 GA - you got to be kidding#6657212/07/01; 12:38:24

Really know how to make an old country boy homesick. Wouldn't do that on purpose, wud ya?

By the way, hope you eat what you shoot, and if you do and I ever get to know you well enough for an invite to dinner, remind me to bring a pair of needle nose to pick the shot out of the duck - those old 10 ga put up a lot of lead - or maybe we'll have duck burger, just won't have to grind it up.

Get a couple for me - Have a great snow day!!!


site stewardMore official sector gold purchases...this time from Russia#6657312/7/01; 13:22:07

Earlier in the week we saw Mongolia upping its gold holdings. Here again, WGC's Rhona O'Connell reports in her daily gold market commentary the lastest central bank activity. From Russia:

--------The Russian Government has announced that its Central Bank gold holdings rose to US$4.011 Billion at the end of November from US$3.986 Billion at end-October, implying that gold holdings rose to 415.9 tonnes from 413.4 tonnes at the end of the previous month. The statement added that the increase in gold holdings since the end of last year is 8.2%, suggesting an increase of 31.5 tonnes over the period.-------

Speaking of Russian gold...
As winter weather becomes ever more entrenched for those of us sharing space on the Northern Hemisphere, you'll want to pocket your share of these warm Russian gold coins which embody the very spirit of endurance against the bitter chill. They've survived over one century of cold Russian winters, including a COLD war. (not to mention a revolution and two world wars!)

site stewardGold, history and culture#6657412/7/01; 13:37:55,2276,30063,00.html?

HEADLINE: The art of gold

(December 8, 2001) ANYONE familiar with Chinese tastes would know how much gold is valued. As prevalent as it is in Chinese ornamental and decorative culture, there was a time when other metals like bronze were more highly valued. That gold is now so precious, and Chinese gold craftsmanship so highly skilled, is partly thanks to the Persians.
....Since the influx of Persian craftsmen in the Tang Dynasty, the Chinese affiliation with gold and silver became a permanent affair.

Despite this, gold still isn't prioritised as reliable historical indicators of Chinese metallurgy - simply because it's too easily melted down, and re-cast, losing its history, although not its value, each time it is passed on.

Bottom line: this article has a great "bottom line".

LeighSite Steward#6657512/7/01; 14:59:05

Thanks so much for the information about the Uruguayan peso. The projects were due today, and everyone liked the gold coins. Most of the kids had never one.

My son and a few friends wrote up and performed a play about some conquistadors, complete with beheadings and sword fights. They'll definitely be sorry to leave the South American unit.

I'm in complete agreement with Black Blade - it would be great to see those coins offered again!

R PowellInvisible Hand#6657612/7/01; 15:20:42

I just want to say that I'm disappointed that you didn't win the price guessing contest. I was in your corner all the way. I thought your guess was a tad too high but everyone else obviously much too low so I thought you might win.
The link above gives us the Feb. contract close, not the December close as asked for.
Happy weekend!

site stewardLeigh, I'm glad to hear that all went well#6657712/7/01; 16:17:27

Regarding coin availability, whenever I feel inspired (or compelled) to add new faces to my own holdings, I simply phone MK with my special request. It has been my pleasant experience to find that he'll invariably say, "You want some? Sure, we can get you those." And without much ado he'll quote me a price and get my order into the pipeline.

I'm sure most of Centennial's clientele will agree with me -- life is more keenly felt when you have an order in the pipeline. A great feeling, to be sure; like a kid again, awaiting the arrival of birthdays or Christmas.

The pipeline: now you know why, during discrete conversation among friends, my "codename" for placing orders with MK is "calling the plumber".

Bottom line: If you want Argentinos today, it doesn't hurt to ask.


R PowellLease rates for silver#6657812/7/01; 16:20:06

As listed at Kitco for Pearl Harbor Day plus 60 years,

1 month 5.0225%
2 month 5.0113
3 month 3.5038
6 month 2.0962
1 year 3.0700
So much for whatever was left of any carry trade using silver. The short term one and two month rates were up the most today. Do we sense a disturbance in the force?
Happy weekend

Gandalf the WhiteThe Price Guessing CONTEST Results !#6657912/07/01; 16:53:10

The Royal Trumpets have sounded, (quietly this time), and the Keeper of the Castle has determined that the "GC1Z" Settlement on Friday December 7th was at $273.9

MK was looking at the entries and saw:

$$$$$274.50$$$$$ Black Blade (11/29/01; 21:54:25MT
$$$$$274.00$$$$$ mikal (11/30/01; 22:54:23MT
$$$$$273.50$$$$$ Christian (11/30/01; 06:41:42MT

Therefore "mikal" was closest and Black Blade and Christian were "runners-ups". Sir Mikal shall be receiving a one-tenth ounce Golden Austrian Philharmonic from Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. BUT, though Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. was only going to award one prize per the announcment, it was so much fun that MK will forward one Silver Eagle, to each runners-up.
We all know whom it is that has a "Heart of Gold" !

site stewardRPowell and "silver carry"#6658012/7/01; 17:22:52

Before you pronounce the end of a carry trend such as this, it might pay to bear in mind that there is more to factor than just the relative interest rates. Expectations of parity changes may often outweigh interest rates in motivating capital flows. Seeing silver poised to hit the skids prompts one to borrow-and-sell the metal now. That's the easy part. What then separates the men from the boys is found in their subsequent choices of "employment" (investment strategy) for that pool of newly raised funds.

I doubt that those few small-timers out there who are already in over their heads in silver having bought a bill of goods will pay any heed to this, preferring to put on a brave face or turn a blind eye. Ignorance is bliss and hope springs eternal, or so the saying goes. I've come to accept that that is the nature of the game. All efforts to the contrary, there is no hope of helping those who will not help themselves.

Bottom line: Gold. Not silver. There, I've said it outright. The advice is wholly and only mine, the decision is only and wholly yours. And forward we shall go from here, step by step, every step of the way. Happy trails? For some more than others, I'm quite sure of it.


Solomon WeaverSILVER IS THE POOR MAN'S GOLD#6658112/7/01; 17:30:00

Pizz (12/6/01; 20:57:44MT - msg#: 66536)
General Observation

"The ratio he sells (Ag:Au) is about 20:1 (right now). I said why? If I've got to pack it around I want gold. Simple he says, right now the small silver buyers are worried blue collar types facing layoffs at Boeing and all their suppliers (big business here). They never were big into the markets, little savings, but the ones with enough sense come in and buy 5 oz a payday. THEY CAN'T AFFORD GOLD. Kids, mortgages, food and clothes."

R Powellsite steward and "silver carry"#6658212/7/01; 19:15:48

You have me confused with your comment, "Seeing silver poised to hit the skids prompts one to borrow-and-sell the metal now."
I had noticed that silver lease rates had gone up appreciably and commented that this should end any remaining silver carry trade. This should end any extra supply (from leased and sold metal) in the supply/demand equation. It should also end all profitability in renewing existing leases (why continue a lease at higher rates when fixed asset returns have come down toward lease rates) so, when past leases expire, they will not be renewed. This should add extra demand to the supply/demand equation, no? More demand from those seeking to return borrowed silver.
So, I don't see silver poised to hit the skids. I think there is a good chance that silver prices are ready to rise, perhaps substantially and quickly. I view the rise in lease rates as more likely the indication of a shortage than the attempt to raise capital at these low prices.

Black BladeMK and Gandy - POG Contest#6658312/7/01; 19:58:31

Why thank you! I just got in and have to pluck duck feathers while I consume copious amounts of Negra Modelo. The Silver Eagle is a beautiful coin and I look forward to its arrival. Again I thank you both on helping to make this Round Table so enjoyable with good people for good company. Cheers!

- Black Blade

R PowellSite steward#6658412/7/01; 20:09:35

Your words,

"I doubt that those few small-timers out there who are already in over their heads in silver having bought a bill of goods will pay any heed to this, preferring to put on a brave face or turn a blind eye. Ignorance is bliss and hope springs eternal, or so the saying goes. I've come to accept that that is the nature of the game. All efforts to the contrary, there is no hope of helping those who will not help themselves."
I can definitely say that I am a small-timer and I believe many here are also such. I wasn't aware that you thought those of us invested in silver had "bought a bill of goods" but I, for one, have learned to never turn a blind eye to any information or opinion concerning silver.
Can you elaborate on why (fundamental supply/demand information or otherwise)you believe silver enthusiasts have been hoodwinked?
Also you said, "Gold. Not silver."
Do you think, then, that their futures are not connected as "precious metals"? I never believed there had to be a certain price ratio between the two but I have always envisioned them as sharing the same fate. I find it hard to envision conditions or perceptions that would raise the fiat price or value of one without the other.
What then is this "bill of goods" you believe is misleading us and why "Gold. Not silver."?

megatronRPowell#6658512/7/01; 20:25:51

Don't bother fretting over moronic prattle. Soon there will be a new 'mantra' from the muslim cleric and we will be shown how wrong we are, by those wise men who know all. ...........
megatronRPowell#6658612/7/01; 20:29:31

Think of the guy in the comic book store on the Simpson's.That's all you need to visualize.
megatronIn Fact.....#6658712/7/01; 20:38:28

HoratioTail waggin the dog ,its all about perceptions#6658812/7/01; 21:00:06

The dirivitives market driving the gold and silver price is like the tail waggin'the dog.
Why don't the physical holders simply offer thier holdings of gold at 500/oz and silver at 12/oz.Thereby creating a seperate market for physical than for paper.Then the asked price will drive the market and not the bid price.When the perception becomes that there are two markets seperate and distinct markets,who will want to own paper?.They will have to sell paper and buy cash at the higher price.Why bother with paper when cash commands a better price.
In short, create two seperate markets one paper and one physical.We gold bugs control the physical market for sure in silver ,why let paper set the price?The answer lies in creating two seperate markets.When the cash market sets a higher price than that for future delivery the futures people that "Backwardation"and it almost always fortells of higher futures prices to come in the paper market.That is how physical can set the price and not the paper dirivatives.We must change the perception first ,the price change will follow.Getting the miners to participate in setting the physical price would be esential ,but a central marketing authority will be needed to establish prices for physical similar to opec.Then the paper market will become irrelevant.

R PowellMegatron/ site steward#6658912/07/01; 21:23:55

I'll leave certainty under the category of death and taxes only. Especially as this pertains to silver!
Site steward obviously holds the opinion that silver enthusiasm is misplaced. I hope he will tell us why. Any analysis of this market embracing only positive imput can only lead to a biased conclusion. It's only natural, in human nature, to look for and rejoice in information that reinforces our entered into positions. The safety, enhansement or even (dare I say it) withdrawal of that position may depend on keeping an open mind and objective analysis of whatever facts we can gather. In this regard, information which may lead to the conclusion that the POS will not increase in the near future is as vital as any other info.
Other than a huge unknown stash of silver supply and the technical (rear view mirror type) arguement that our fundamental analysis is somehow flawed because the POS is and remains low, I know of no other reasons why the POS will not rise. If the site steward will share his reasoning or information why he believes higher POS is not going to happen and why silver will not react with gold, I would like very much to listen.

megatronRPowell#6659012/7/01; 21:34:18

Perhaps you missed the point of my post. His opinion obviously means NOTHING to the most sophisticated and connected(and richest) investors the world has ever seen. Why bother listening? It's prattle.
ElwoodPensions in Argentina Stolen......Where's yours?#6659112/7/01; 21:39:11;$sessionid$USAZCTAAAAJALQFIQMGCFF4AVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2001/12/08/cnarg08.xml&sSheet=/money/2001/12/08/ixcity.html;$sessionid$USAZCTAAAAJALQFIQMGCFF4AVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2001/12/08/cnarg08.xml&sSheet=/money/2001/12/08/ixcity.html
GalearisGold vs silver#6659212/7/01; 21:55:48

is not the point

In a world as cluttered up with corruption and leverage plays, where demand and price are estranged, where the only truths seem to be assigned to or from politics and the bible one cannot say that one metal will lose/win over another. This is not like comparing apples to oranges in value judgement.

The point is the discussion of what is better or worse is ever the specious one when so much is missing from which to base a judgement. The world has never been here before and seen the fiscal to ecological sickness that is the reality for the confused peoples living on it. When it comes out the other side of this one can only be sure of one thing. Change. There will be gold and there will be silver and for all we know neither will have any meaning for any of us. Except lament.

Best regards and good night,


darkhorseuh, excuse me...#6659312/7/01; 21:56:18

I, too, feel a duty to "weigh in" on what you've said, Randy. I don't feel "hood-winked" at all, and I'll stand with my silver, AND gold, as the price for each gets beyond the reach of all us "small timers" that didn't have the foresight to get in on the ground floor. I fully realize there's plenty of room for misunderstanding where two people don't have the luxury of vis-a-vis conversations, but after reading your post numerous times over the evening, I still come up with the same interpretations. It smacks of condescending attitudes towards those that invest in silver (even physical positions), and anybody that doesn't have a couple thousand $'s/month to put lay out for PM's. I agree with megatron (I'm sorry to admit THAT doesn't happen too often) when I say I'm in pretty good company w/the Buffets, Soros, Gates et al that see silver as a pretty d**n good investment. I'm pretty sure none of us have any inside knowledge of future events, so I'm real comfortable with my physical silver position which, most likely, will out perform gold (at least on a percentage basis, if not totally surpass it in price; hey, it's possible...isn't silver more scarce than gold, when it comes down to available supply meeting total demand?) when prices do take off. I'll stop before I get too far. I really had to wrestle with this thing; if there's one thing I can't stand it's an arrogant, condescending attitude that totally dismisses somebody else because of differing opinions ("Bottom line: Gold. Not silver." and "Happy trails? For some more than others, I'm quite sure of it."). Randy, sorry for the rant if we've totally misconstrued your just doesn't seem like I have.
mikalRe: Forum#6659412/7/01; 22:14:14

Michael, Randy, Gandy, and staff: Thank you so much for the chance to enter and win another fun contest! And it is a privilege and distinct pleasure to benefit from your hard work, experience, dedication, and integrity. You have in many ways, the most innovative, informative, and supportive investment and educational services in the country, the world for that matter- free to a large and diverse public: cutting edge publications and web commentaries and news reviews, expert opinions from some of the world's top thinkers, free consultations, the discussion round table, and more to add to your modestly priced treasures of wisdom and wealth. Invigorating and essential to navigate today's turbulent, sometimes tortuous investment waters.
Black BladeEconomy Bleeds Job; Rate Cuts Seen - PANIC AT THE FED!#6659512/7/01; 22:31:32


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy shed jobs at a searing pace for a second straight month in November, the government said on Friday in a report analysts said assured further interest-rate cuts to combat recession. The economy lost 331,000 nonfarm jobs last month, the Labor Department said, far worse than the 189,000 that Wall Street economists had anticipated. November's losses came on top of a revised 468,000-jobs payroll plunge in October -- a total 799,000 jobs scrubbed from payrolls in a two-month period. The last time job markets suffered a similarly devastating back-to-back blow was in May and June 1980 when 806,000 jobs were lost.

The Fed has reduced rates 10 times already this year and analysts said the bleak figures made an 11th reduction at its meeting on Tuesday a virtual certainty. The central bank's federal funds rate already is at a 40-year low of 2 percent.

Black Blade: A record 11 FED rate cuts and more to come is obvious sheer panic. Even the ECB decided not to cut rates because they knew it would be seen as a panic. The FED has no choice. The US economy could very well follow in the footsteps of the Japanese economy.

Black BladeNormandy war heats up as AngloGold loses break fee battle #6659612/7/01; 22:53:30


AngloGold suffered another blow yesterday in its $3.7 billion bid for Normandy Mining as the Takeovers Panel ruled a break fee imposed by rival suitor Newmont Mining had not inhibited competition. AngloGold and Newmont are battling it out for control of Australia's biggest gold miner, considered one of the last prize acquisitions in the sector. AngloGold came back with a cash-sweetened offer last week after its original bid was trumped by Newmont, which has the recommendation of the Normandy board. The three-way Newmont deal - it will also take over 19.9 per cent Normandy shareholder Franco-Nevada Mining Corp, which has agreed to sell its stake - includes a $38.33 million break fee, if the deals fall through.

Black Blade: I had brought these points up here before. I also brought them up at, however, these were embarrassing points for those "analysts" and I asked "hard" questions that they were ill equipped to deal with. The result was that this pro-AngloGold and pro-Barrick web site deleted my point-by-point rebuttals. The AngloGold shills at also have given a lot of misinformation in their articles and misleading data in their charts as well. It truly is a battle between the hedgers and non-hedgers. This battle over Normandy will be but one battle and the non-hedgers face a formidable task as the hedgers gang up with the support of biased shills and financial backers. Be very suspect of these alleged "analysts." The POG will eventually break free in spite of the best efforts by the hedgers and their "friends."

WaveriderSilver/Gold#6659712/7/01; 23:08:01

A few interesting tidbits I found tonight:

Silver is first recorded on the London Fix in 1792 @ US$1.29
Gold is first recorded on the London Fix in 1833 @ US$20.65
From 1833 to 1999 Silver increased from $1.29 to $5.22 (4x)
From 1833 to 1999 Gold increased from $20.65 to $278.88(13.5x) know what's coming next...from 1970-1999..yep, they gold increases, silver increases (which we all knew).

So I too, along with R. Powell am interested in the sitesteward's reasoning when the data seems to suggest otherwise.


WaveriderGalearis#66562#6659812/7/01; 23:28:34

Galearis - thank you for the link - there's a LOT of raw data there - weeks...of number crunching as it were!

mikalRe: Respect#6659912/7/01; 23:34:19

It is easy sometimes to forget that advice, such as Randy has freely offerred, is well-intentioned. I sense in his post the frustration and difficulty in acquiring consensus among the Knights, for the faith in a new, unshackled, and universally referenced gold value, overshadowing silver in a new and unfamiliar financial system and a market across the ocean. Thank Randy for sticking his neck out and using sarcasm with decency and restraint rather than overreacting and labelling him as condescending or arrogant or moronic. His post confirms my suspicion that I have acted upon in recent days: That gold coins are dwindling in supply, the window of cheap prices is almost shut, and silver is not envisioned by TPTB as a reserve asset or trade currency of nations, but more as a captive commodity like wheat, rubber , and copper currently are. Further, the supply of silver in private hoards reinforces the notion that Buffett, Soros, and other elite insiders mean serious business in world resources. All posts deserve measured consideration, at the very least, respect.
Black BladeMullah Omar 'is captured'#6660012/7/01; 23:34:30,,2001560012-2001565548,00.html


MULLAH MUHAMMAD OMAR was last night apparently being held captive as the Taleban lost control of their spiritual stronghold of Kandahar in a major breakthrough for the American-led coalition. The Pentagon said that word of Mullah Omar's capture was "potentially interesting". It said, however, that it had no independent verification from US special forces. A spokesman said: "In the absence of that we will tend to see what comes out." Mullah Omar's apparent capture ended a day of confusion, during which it appeared that he might have escaped the grip of the new Afghan administration, and the Americans.

Black Blade: Interesting news, however, at this point just a rumor. When Osama Bin Laden is captured we might see some positive reaction in the markets. However, more terrorist acts are likely as angered supporters go "Jihad." Or as we might say - "Go Postal."

WaveriderBlack Blade#6660112/7/01; 23:49:14

Black Blade:
Kudos on wacking the quacks :) That's an interesting comment about the miningweb. I read something on it earlier this week and actually emailed a question to the sitesteward and asked him to forward it to you (they won't without consent)-it was in regard to DROOY's hedge position-a bit too specific to post here. Nevertheless, I have another question, if I may. You used the term "backwardation" earlier today in relation to the near term silver lease rates. I think someone else referred to it as well...what exactly is that - please, when you have a moment.

mikalA new gold...#6660212/7/01; 23:51:34

A new gold value, a new and unfamiliar financial system, a new market across the ocean, is a place Trail Guide mentioned several times before his latest vacation. Though my gold and silver holdings are being adjusted to a heavier weighting in gold, silver, mostly bullion coinage of USA, Canada, & Mexico and other silver, bullion items of beauty, rarity, and investment potential will remain.
Waveridermikal#6660312/8/01; 00:09:22

I joined the forum very recently and have found it difficult and very time consuming (but worthwhile)to wade through the archives as there isn't a search engine. If you are willing, could you expand a bit/summarize by what Trail Guide means by an unfamiliar financial system and a new market across the ocean?

Black BladeWaverider - Backwardation#6660412/8/01; 00:25:33

Backwardation is a market condition where spot rates or near term rates exceed forward rates. Contango is the opposite condition where forward rates exceed spot rates. Normally forward rates are typically contango. In the commodities markets such as precious metals and energy markets, the prevailing condition may eflect supply and demand. For example, if the Gold or Silver market is contango, it may indicate a glut of immediately available supply. Backwardation might indicate an immediate shortage. The near term Silver lease rates are currently higher than the forward rates and this reflects a possible shortage of the metal, in other words these higher near term lease rates are in "Backwardation." We have also seen the same activity in the PGM markets as a result of Russia having depleted their PGM reserves. I hope that this helps.

- Black Blade

BTW, as far as DROOY hedges, I understand that they are being unwound as they seem to feel that Gold prices will be advancing in the near future. This is probably why AU and ABX are in such desperate straights and appear to be willing to pay dearly for more acquisitions.

mikal@Waverider#6660512/8/01; 00:33:35

Yes, you can find what you need in the link, in parentheses, at the top of our hosts' pages: (Gold Trail). A new , unfamiliar financial system will be replacing the current one- unfamiliar because its details cannot be revealed at this delicate time, nor can its key spokesmen be revealed for the same reasons, stability and security taking precedence. Also, a new gold market across the ocean is where you will soon look for your updated gold settlements and actual prices and possibly for currency exchange rates as well, as the credibility and feasibility of USA markets may have to be gradually reinstituted.
Black Blademikal #6660612/8/01; 00:40:55

Congratulations on the POG contest. I also have several uncirculated Morgan silver dollars and Liberty gold pieces in my collection. I think that these older pieces are much more interesting and in a way more beautiful than the newer styles. Just a preference perhaps. I hold much more in bullion and mining shares. Again - congrats!

- Black Blade

WaveriderBlack Blade and mikal#6660712/8/01; 00:44:52

Thank you both. mikal - I found the link which I haven't yet explored - so much much wisdom..the more I learn the more I realize I don't know. Thanks again and golden dreams.
Waverider :)

Waveridermikal & Black Blade#6660812/8/01; 00:48:15

My apologies - yes - congratulations to both of you.

mikal@Waverider#6660912/8/01; 00:52:56

Besides the link (Gold Trail), Trail Guide (FOA), Randy and others posts found in archives have more on this as well the Euro, the dollar, derivatives and related topics.
mikal@Black Blade & Waverider#6661012/8/01; 01:07:45

Thank you both- it was mere luck on my part that one of the many more qualified Knights over or undershot the mark. I tended toward optimism, but gold has been held in tighter and tighter ranges, etc... Have a great night.
EconoclastAlan Greenspan: Maestro or Music Man?#6661112/8/01; 01:54:37

The answer to that question is so important as we search for the clues that will reveal the future direction of the economy, and more specifically, how economic events will affect our shared passion, the value and worth of gold.
Is Alan Greenspan truly the "master of the universe"? Does he have the knowledge and the power to "play" the United States, and by extension, the world's economy as if he were Gabriel playing the trumpet? Or is he simply a Music Man? A relatively powerless cog in a highly complicated and chaotic system, conning the world into believing there exists a person who understands it all and knows which levers to pull to keep it humming.
This author humbly submits to the notion that Alan Greenspan incorporates aspects of both the Maestro, and the Music Man into his persona. The ultimate judgment of which label reigns supreme will not be able to be determined until the march of time has overtaken our economy and we have gained the clarity that comes from being able to look at the question in a historical context.
Alan Greenspan became chairman of the Federal Reserve in 1987. He inherited an economic and monetary system that was the antithesis of the system he espoused in his younger days as a contemporary of the famous Ayn Rand.
An important question that must be addressed is: What is the nature of the position of Federal Reserve chairman? Does the world's most prominent banker, no matter who holds the title, have the level of power necessary to control the economy? Yes, the chairman is a powerful actor on the world stage and must have an extremely high level of knowledge and understanding to avoid making a catastrophic "wrong" decision. But also, as we all know, banking itself is a confidence game, so therefore, an important tool of the Maestro is the ability, when necessary, to become the Music Man. Perhaps the economy needs a Music Man to play the role of Maestro?
As complex as our economy has become, even a Maestro in the position of Federal Reserve chairman does not have the power to control it. He can no longer control the money supply due to the growth of the commercial credit industry, and also due to the fact that our "Maestro" admits that he no longer even knows what "money" is. He can tamper with the money supply and also with interest rates, but the control of either has evolved beyond his abilities and the ability of his position. He has shown himself to be the Maestro through applying short-term patches here and there just to keep the economy working as long as it has, despite its foundational and structural weaknesses. His position has evolved so that his greatest tool is to be a Music Man perceived by the world as being a Maestro.
Another important question to address while attempting to determine whether Mr. Greenspan is a Maestro or a Music Man is: What are his true motivations?
The answer to this may never be known. The author can see four possible answers to the question of his motives. First, he is an active participant in trying to set up a New World Order that will deliver control of the world to an elite group of banking/corporate fascists. Second, he is working within the financial and monetary system he inherited to optimize its functioning for the benefit of the citizens of the United States. Third, he is working for the benefit of the banks, believing that is the best course for the economy and the citizens. Fourth, and probably just wishful thinking, he has a secret and grand scheme to bring down the whole house of cards in a way that will bring the end of the welfare state that he detested early in his career, along with the return of sound money.
Without the advantage of being able to look at the outcomes of his actions and his motivations from a historical viewpoint, it is impossible to know, and just conjecture to label him Maestro or Music Man.
Whatever the answer to that question, he has managed to keep "the wheels on the wagon" through both ups and downs while presidents have come and gone. Although our economy seems to be heading to a more precarious and unbalanced position on a day by day basis, with his precious tool of "increased liquidity" and his abilities to be preceived as the Maestro by both Wall St. and the public, there is no reason to think that the Music Man will lose the confidence of the world during this month. The economic world turns slowly, and its timing has never been correctly predicted.
In the long run, however, there is one thing we can be sure of. Gold will again shine as a result of his steering of the economy. No matter what his true motivations are. And whether he is a Maestro or Music Man. If the economy is set up to fail, it will be delivered to the very people who currently own almost all the gold--gold will shine. If it is to fail because he is a disciple of John Galt--gold will shine. If he is merely a Music Man, held up as a Maestro, and doing the best he can, his economy will ultimately fail due to its reliance on unbacked and unsound money. Gold will return to prominence when the inevitable transpires.

Black BladeSun Country Airlines Cuts 900 Jobs#6661212/8/01; 01:57:48


Sun Country Airlines Laying Off Nearly All Its 900 Remaining Employees.

Black Blade: More redundant "Bones" off to the "Bone Pile."

Black BladeNevada Mine Co. May Cut 210 Jobs#6661312/8/01; 02:12:14

Layoff Notices Sent to All 210 Employees of Getchell Gold Mine Near Winnemucca, Nevada


WINNEMUCCA, Nev. (AP) -- Placer Dome Inc. told all 210 employees of its Getchell Mine northeast of Winnemucca that they may be laid off in two months, according to general manager Tim Baker. The mine had more than 600 employees when it was acquired by Placer Dome in 1999. About 200 were laid off shortly after the merger with Getchell Gold Corp. Last year, another 100 jobs were eliminated when the project was scaled back to exploration and development only.

Black Blade: The towns of Winnemucca, Ely, Tonopah and Elko are turning into ghost towns at this pace. I understand that some laid off miners are taking minimum wage casino jobs. I know of a geologist who works security in a casino, another who works as a stock boy at a WalMart, and an engineer who works at a local brothel (maybe as a towel boy). In a word - "GRIM"

Black BladeCredit Suisse Plans 2,400 Job Cuts#6661412/8/01; 02:19:30


ZURICH, Switzerland (AP) - The Credit Suisse Group said Friday that it hopes to achieve savings next year of $650 million by cutting more than 2,400 jobs at its U.S. investment banking unit.

Black Blade: Banker "Bones" off to the growing "Bone Pile." This is not looking good for a supposed recovering economy.

Black BladeLockheed Drops World Telecom Business#6661512/8/01; 02:24:15


LANHAM, Md. (AP) - Lockheed Martin Corp. said Friday it will get out of the global telecommunications business, cutting 650 jobs and taking a $1.7 billion fourth-quarter charge.

Black Blade: "Tele-Bones" sent off to the "Bone Pile." Look for larger numbers of layoffs after the holidays as the bad news keeps piling up and corporate earnings fail to materialize.

Black BladeEnron Lays Off 200 More Workers#6661612/8/01; 02:33:50


Enron Lays Off 200 More Workers in Power Trading Unit.

Black Blade: Only about 17,000 more to trot off to the "Bone Pile." There are call for investigations into senior management insider trading just prior to the company's recent troubles and suspicious "bonuses" and "incentives" paid to Enron managers while the rank and file get pink slips and see their 401K plans ravaged. A lot of energy and other commodities contracts may be in trouble as well. In a word - "GRIM"

Black BladeOutlook seen bleak for U.S. energy industry jobs#6661712/8/01; 02:49:45


NEW YORK, Dec 7 (Reuters) -A gloomy outlook for the energy business threatens deeper cuts in the sector's workforce next year after the number of workers in U.S. oil and gas drilling slipped in November from recent three-year highs, experts said. Oil and gas drilling jobs fell 1,000 to 339,000 workers in November, according to the Department of Labor's monthly report Friday.

Black Blade: Another sector to add mightily to the growing "Bone Pile." That's a lot of nonessential "Bones" to cast aside.

A CanadianFUNNY SMELLING ECONOMY#6661812/8/01; 08:12:18

BACK FROM THE BRINK....always lurking (too stupid to
post)....congrats MIKAL...BLACK BLADE: you're the man!...
CANUCK: Many hardworking men of reason have seen their
paper burn. Almost none hold metals. Your explosion is
inevitable. The last few hours are always the longest..
....FOA: Your patriotism was never in question're
liked and needed.

I am ashamed to say that I took advantage of 911.
Stopped buying gold (temporarily). Instead went for
canadian airline stocks! (felt like death merchant).
Already liquid and golden; this rally is over.

SO WHAT SMELLS FUNNY? In my 40 yrs I have NEVER seen:
A) All major world economies simultaneously slip
( only read about that, yikes!)
B) Free money
C) Gold price manipulation to this extent
D) One superpower
E) A completely groundless stock rally (fueled by
disincentives to park money elsewhere)
F) A new generation of borrowers and spenders with
such little concern for economic fundamentals.

Play the paper , pay the rent, buy food CONVERT ALL
EXCESS TO PHYSICAL! (The only mantra I can chant with
conviction. The only way I feel safe.)

Gold is not an investment vehicle. It is the Fort Knox
That backs your life. Never to be sold; better passed

Goodweekend to all, I receive great comfort and guidance
from you men of intellect! Keep posting!

A Canadian ALAN GREENSPAN ????????#6661912/08/01; 08:56:26

Is nothing more than an imposter wizard behind a paper
curtain; pulling squeeky levers to distract us from the
realization that the yellow brick road is, in itself the

WaveriderBlack Blade#6662012/08/01; 09:15:22

I need to clarify Sir my #66601 - I was refering only to your duck hunting. It only occured to me later that my phrase could be interpreted as double-edged humor of incredibly bad taste. Needed to clarify - I'm humbled to walk in the company of such learned men.

slingshotPizz Msg#66564 Silver to Gold#6662112/08/01; 10:45:08

Good day to everyone.

How much silver should one have in relation to Gold?

I am going to use $5.00 spot silver and $275.00 spot gold.

Also that time honored ratio of 16-1. Let there be no doubt that Gold is King and thats where we all want to go.

If you buy 16 oz of silver it is $90.00
One oz of gold $275.00. Silver now is just 1/3 the price of gold if you use the ratio.
Now take Silver spot to gold spot. It would take 55 oz of silver to one oz gold. Using the ratio 16-1 silver should be about $17.00 per oz. So why don't I buy silver in huge amounts? Cause I am not a financial wizard and this I can understand. I figure the PTB can hold the price of gold down
at will (at this time) but when the US goverment starts to buy silver. If silver goes to $10.00 and my cost average at $4.85 my conversion to gold will be nice. So for me its 2/3 gold and 1/3 silver cost using the 16-1 ratio.

We are all trying to get from here to there. The HOW and the way we use it is the hard part.

Fact is that I don't want to miss either the explosion in silver or gold like I did the last times.


slingshotEgg on my face#6662212/08/01; 11:16:18

16 x $5.00 is $80.00
All the better.

Cavan ManBest quote in awhile#6662312/08/01; 11:28:57

"Gold is not an investment vehicle. It is the Fort Knox that backs your life."

Thank you "A Canadian"! For myself though, I will qualify your statement to mean my (secular) life. Kind regards...CM

PizzSlingshot - How much gold vs silver?#6662412/8/01; 12:28:53

There is no "ideal" ratio for everyone. Way too many variables. ORO's probably one of the most knowledgeable posters I've had the pleasure of reading and even he can only come up with his opinion based upon the facts at hand, his own research, and his perception of the future. Then he'd have to apply the results to a specific situation.

I'll advise a speculator completely different than a young couple with two kids on a limited income. But here's how I kind of do it for myself:

My first step is to take my best guess of where I'm at on the economic trail, where the trail is leading, and then try to position myself so as to not run off a cliff. PM's may be looked at as spare tires, parachutes, food caches, or anything else that will help keep you on the trail. We as individuals have no control of where the trail is going, I'm just trying to stay on it without a major crack-up.

Now, my post on how much Au vs. Ag is based upon my current perceptions (which follow).

1. The economy has a better than 50-50 chance of going into a major depression. It will play out over 5-15 years. The best case is a severe recession (we're there now).

2. Unemployment will go much higher than currently expected.

3. Long term rates have bottomed.

4. The dollar is in serious trouble and will eventually be devalued 20 to 30 % minimum. (I still haven't figured how they're going to do it - I just feel they have to.)

5. Gold will go up. Silver will go up faster on a percentage basis (its cheaper and therefore more affordable for the masses). Both will go up more than the present value of dollars borrowed at current fixed rates. PM's will not outperform dollars borrowed at variable rates (again MY gut feel). Interest rates will climb much faster than any expect (six to 18 months).

6. Most of us will have our purchasing power cut by the devaluation and slowing economy - some much more than others.

PM's for me are 25% disaster insurance (this was less than 5% a year ago and based upon a major 8.0+ earthquake happening in Seattle. I'm revaluating upwards towards 50% rather quickly based upon my perception of war, terrorists, and depression possiblities), 60% investment, and 15% speculation.

My ratio (right now and subject to ongoing adjustment) of Au to Ag is as follows:

Disaster insurance is in silver. I can easily liquidate it here, in cash, in small amounts as I may need it. If I couldn't do this, it would be in cash under the mattress.

The investment is gold in hand. If I'm going to hold I prefer small, high value PM's. Don't want to use a hand truck to get in to my buyer.

The 15% speculation is a penny paper gold stock and its only in one, and its so speculative that I haven't seen it mentioned on any forum. I mentally have already written it off (if you're prepared for the worst, and if the worst happens, you still will have you're emotional head on somewhat straight), BUT MOST OF ALL I CAN AFFORD TO LOSE IT!

Bottom line, do your homework, make your own decisions, and take all posted information with a warry mind (including mine).

Solid financial planning is not scanning the board over at K*t*o, getting a couple idiots' opinions based upon a ten cent move in silver, then rushing out and trying to find a 100 oz bar that may or may not be readily available for reasons no one may know at this time!

Hope I haven't rambled too much.


(Hey Black Blade - what's your bagged duck look like? Guts and feathers???)

My perception, and I repeat, my perception, at this time

site stewardTake a lesson from a neighbor's experience#6662512/8/01; 13:02:26

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Lawmakers from Argentina's main opposition Peronist Party said on Friday they would go to court to try to block the cash-strapped government from tapping Central Bank reserves to pay its debt.

Economic developments in times of stress can drive monetary events in directions that would otherwise not be expected in times of calm. As individuals, we have no control over the disposition of our national reserves or the fate of our unit of currency. Complete helplessness need not be compulsory, however. Gold fills the void for all persons wise enough to have acquired it during orderly times.


Black BladePatience Wears Thin as Recession Wears On#6662612/8/01; 13:18:25


NEW YORK (Reuters) - This is the weirdest recession ever to hit the stock market. Consumers are spending thanks to an avalanche of interest-rate cuts, but companies can't plow their way out because bankers are so tight-fisted. The Federal Reserve chopped interest rates 10 times and flooded the system with a trillion dollars since January but the soft money policy has failed to have an electrifying effect on the economy and corporate earnings.

The betting is that the Fed will take another stab at jump-starting the $10 trillion economy by lowering again at next Tuesday's policy-setting meeting, possibly pushing the key interest rate to 1.75 percent from 2 percent, which was already a 40-year low.

Black Blade: Rate cuts galore with massive infusion of cheap dollars and it just ain't working! Yeah the market indices have surged higher but that does not translate into increasing corporate profits. I suspect this will be a "M" shaped stock market.

Pizz - Just got a couple of mallards - not badly mangled. Went out this morning and only got a small teal. Crock pot is fired up with duck and orange-sauce, then to laid over "golden" saffron rice with some sweet hot Thai peppers gently swilled down with copious amounts of Fat Tire ale. Off to slay ducks this afternoon.

Black BladeFreeze Sought on Enron Executives' Assets#6662712/8/01; 13:30:53


HOUSTON (Reuters) - Attorneys for a bank suing bankrupt energy trader Enron Corp. (NYSE:ENE) asked a federal judge to freeze $1.1 billion in assets belonging to Enron executives on grounds they could flee the country with the money. Amalgamated Bank, which manages worker retirement funds, has charged that 29 Enron executives and members of the board of directors pocketed $1.1 billion in insider trades in recent years when the company allegedly artificially inflated earnings to jack up the stock price. Amalgamated attorney Bill Lerach told Rosenthal his clients had lost more than $10 million in the collapse of Enron and hoped to get some of it back from the now-wealthy Enron executives.

Lerach outlined what he alleged was a massive conspiracy of fraud and greed in the executive suites of the Houston-based company. ``There was fraud at the top, fraud by the board,'' he charged in arguments before a courtroom packed with lawyers. ''It's worse than any civil fraud case we've ever seen.'' He said former Enron chief executive Jeff Skilling, who resigned in August after just six months on the job, had gone to Brazil and that former chief financial officer Andrew Fastow, who left the company in October, may have flown to Israel via Canada. ``I don't want to accuse people of being a flight risk, but I do want to suggest it could be more than an academic exercise in this case,'' he said.

Black Blade: "Flight Risk?" That's interesting. Reminds me of an old joke. North Carolina's state motto is "First in Flight." It has been suggested that was also the state militia's motto during the Civil and Revolutionary Wars.

slingshotPizz#6662812/8/01; 13:33:22

I agree there is no ideal ratio for everyone. Maybe the 16-1 or 2/3 gold 1/3 silver puts me in a comfort zone using price as a driver.
I try to make my Best Guess based on my preception on things happening and adjust as the need arises.
After reading your post we do see the world in the same light.
Thanks for your insight.

King of short ramble.

Black BladeRecession Hurting Christmas Mood#6662912/8/01; 13:45:05

With 800,000 Americans Laid Off Since Sept. 11, Recession Bringing a Blue Christmas for Many


One worked for Enron, another served fast food for Taco Bell. The third was a United Airlines flight attendant. Three mothers head anxiously toward Christmas with faint hope of getting the present they most need -- a new job. They are among more than 800,000 Americans laid off since Sept. 11, struggling to keep their families' spirits up as the season of celebration coincides jarringly with recession. ``The decorations are up, but the atmosphere is not cheery,'' said Clentine Coleman, social services director for Catholic Charities in Las Vegas. ``You don't see a lot of hoopla over the holidays this year -- it's people just trying to make it through.''

One of Coleman's clients is Emilia Posas, 27, recently laid off by Taco Bell as tourism in Las Vegas dipped sharply. Posas' husband, Alberto, also lost his construction job. ``I've put in job applications at different places,'' Posas said. ``But it's hard. Everybody says, 'No. It's too slow.'' The couple -- with children ages 8, 7 and 2 -- is used to festive Christmas celebrations, but not this year. ``I don't have money for rent, utilities, food, nothing,'' Posas said. ``My children are sad.''

In Houston, Tammie Huthmacher -- six months pregnant and mother of an 8-year-old -- was among 4,000 employees laid off Monday in the stunning collapse of energy-trading giant Enron. Her husband still has a job, but they relied on both salaries to meet mortgage and car payments. Christmas normally features a get-together with both sides of the family, and lots of gift-giving. ``This year I'm trying to figure out how to get presents just for my son -- no one else,'' said Huthmacher, 27, at her home in suburban Sugar Land. ``I don't even know how I'm going to buy groceries next week, let alone Christmas. It's devastating.''

Sheila Adams, one of 22,000 flight attendants laid off by the nation's airlines since the terror attacks, can no longer afford her New York apartment. A single parent with a teen-age daughter, Adams will move in with her recently widowed mother in Portland, Ore., trying to avoid gloom at a time when her brother also just lost his job.

Black Blade: These are just a few tales from the "Bone Pile." Don't let this happen to you! Get prepared! American businesses and corporations are pinning their hopes on people throwing cash into the cash registers this Christmas. For many it is "do or die." has said repeatedly that this Christmas will make them profitable. I seriously doubt that. As Warren Buffett has said, this recession will be a long-term contracted recession. Get ready because we haven't even begun to see the worst of this economic contraction. Get out of debt, get prepared, and get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance to balance the coming slide in paper investments.

megatronBlackBlade#6663012/8/01; 14:06:31

I'm curious as to how much of this .15 cent rise in the POS has been due to the closing of the base metal mines, and how much is attributable to the rumour of Buffet not renewing leases. How much , percentage wise of the zinc and copper supply has been shut off? Quite a few world class operations are scaling back. I'd be curious to see any mathematical relationship research.
LeighA Sight to Take Your Breath Away#6663112/8/01; 14:39:39

Here is a really stunning picture of some gold. Cutting out this picture and leaving it around in your office at work would be the best advertisement for gold imaginable.
Cavan ManIt can't happen here.#6663212/8/01; 15:16:46

(From UK's Telegraph)

Argentina appropriates pension funds
By David Litterick (Filed: 08/12/2001)

THE Argentine government has seized private pension funds to try to keep the country's
ailing economy afloat.

An estimated £2.4 billion was taken from privately held accounts and converted into
treasury bonds that were then deposited in the Argentine Treasury's account at the
state-owned bank Banco de la Nacion.

Economy minister Domingo Cavallo said the money would be used to pay debt, public
sector salaries and pensions. Although he pledged that the money would be returned to
the banks from which it had been seized, he gave no indication of when that might be.

site stewardCountdown...#6663312/8/01; 15:49:22

HEADLINE: Bank of England Predicts `Success' in Introducing Euro Notes

London, Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- The dozen European nations sharing a common currency probably will succeed in introducing euro notes and coins with only minor problems, the Bank of England predicted. ........ The EU introduced the euro on Jan. 1, 1999, for some transactions. The actual notes and coins go into circulation Jan. 1. The U.K. is not taking part in the single currency, but British companies doing business with single-currency countries will need to account for the currency on their books, and some retailers have said they'll accept the notes and coins.

site stewardRolling with the times#6663412/8/01; 15:57:08

HEADLINE: Euro to receive Charlemagne Prize

---------Europe's fledgling single currency, the euro, will receive the prestigious International Charlemagne Prize awarded annually for contributions to European unity, the city of Aachen said Saturday.

"From January 2002, the euro will be far more than the single currency for Europe," prize committee spokesman Walter Eversheim said. "It will contribute to a common European identity, stabilize the community and foster peace."------------

The effect of the euro, when notes and coins are fully in place, for the strength of the European community and its economy (and by extention, the rest of the world) will not be negligible.


R PowellUnusual gains#6663512/8/01; 16:24:57

These numbers are from Friday's IBD reporting Thursday's closing contracts on the silver Comex, the paper trade if you like.
Dec. 2001 = 421.70 +4.10
Dec. 2002 = 429.10 +2.70
Dec. 2003 = 435.60 +1.30
Dec. 2004 = 445.00 +0.70

What does it mean? I haven't yet seen the closing numbers for Friday but I can say that this is not business as usual. I saw nothing unusual in the volume or open interest number.
Congrats to Christian, mikal and Black Blade!
Happy weekend

HoratioA Letter to the President#6663612/8/01; 17:17:21

Mr President,
Have I got a Deal for you!
I believe I have found a solution to the problem the Taliban has presented
in regard to young men in Afghanistan who are promised 64 Virgins and entry to Heaven
if they die
prior to having sex and in the course of service to thier country on the field of battle
while trying to kill the Infidels.
Here's the deal
No 1. You get 63 Virgins when you die.
No.2. You get 1 Virgin now.
No 3. You get to live as long as you can.
No.4. You have to convert to Christianity.
No 5. You must marry the Virgin.
No.6 You must obey the 10 Commandments
(including "thou shalt not kill").
The only caveat is (No 1 depends on availability)
As you can see it's a better deal !
You get to live ,you get 1 Virgin now and you still get to Heaven !.
Mr. President ,you can even bring the Pope in on the Deal.
And if the Jews want to participate they can make the same offer,
just take the word Christianity out of No 4.and substitute Judaism.
This can be presented as joint effort by Jews and Christians alike
and everybody wins.
It's a good Deal.!

Respectfully Yours
An American Citizen

mikalFrom Germany's Die Welt#6663712/8/01; 21:19:12


Western Intelligence knew of Laden plan since 1995: Report AFP Berlin, December 7
mikalLink Correction#6663812/8/01; 21:27:54

My apologies, here is the correct link.
miner49er***** Alan Greenspan: Maestro or Music Man? *****#6663912/8/01; 22:38:16

A paradoxical irony exists in the life of any prominent figure. On the one hand, an abundance of information is usually available that can fuel almost any interpretation of the individual. On the other, truly only a handful of people ever really get to know a person. And can even one of these genuinely comprehend the myriad complexities that make up the circumstances into which one's life is cast; or know the thought processes that comprise the soul? Fortunate are those who have any to simply appreciate, no less comprehend.

The life of Alan Greenspan intersected with the current of world history in 1987 when he was appointed Chairman of the Board of Governors of the U. S. Federal Reserve System. The vast sum of experiences, thoughts, and actions of Alan Greenspan now became united with the even more vast, and incomprehensible history of "the Fed." Alan Greenspan was as he was in that year, and the Fed was as it was, and consequently the state of the U. S. economy, and importantly for us, its effect on our lives.

The public knowledge of Alan Greenspan is, as with others, a mixture of fact and hearsay. From this has been formed the entire spectrum of opinion: from saint to sinner, messiah to madman, maestro to music man. Even if a man cannot be satisfactorily "known" solely on the basis of his actions, he is surely judged by them. And the basis on which Alan Greenspan is almost entirely judged involves one and only one action -- the adjustment of interest rates -- and most frequently just the rate charged for overnight use of funds by member banks of the Federal Reserve, or the Fed Funds rate.

Not only do most people have no more than a superficial knowledge of what these transactions are, fewer still have any capacity to knowledgeably discuss their impact. Yet everyone has an opinion about them, and by extension an opinion about the man who dictates them.

An entity comes into existence when the pressure exerted by its proponents overcomes its opposition. And the composition of its proponents inevitably includes the coalesced forces of the gamut of self-interests. Not a coalition, as these forces are not necessarily in league with the others, but their synthesis nonetheless exists. Among the mix are the true-believers, the crooks and con-men, and the opportunists. Each beholds in the entity the potential advantages to their benefit. Each plays off the other as much as they do the opposition until the momentum obtains a life of its own, and if successful, the entity itself is born.

So it was with the Federal Reserve System in 1913. True believers subscribed to the need for, summarily, a "lender of last resort" to avoid the bank panics of the past. Crooks and con-men recognized the possibilities for abuse, and opportunists saw that riding this wave could get them in on the ground floor of something really big. Notwithstanding the abuse of parliamentary procedure that brought the Fed into existence right before the Congressional Christmas recess, the public was evidently ready for such an animal, or at least enough disposed to acquiescence, that opposition to the enactment never gained a footing.

What Chairman Greenspan inherited some 74 years later was truly nothing less than a beast. A system whose suffusion had saturated every pore of the globe, and had so permeated our lives that we were not even conscious of its influence. Indeed many argue that the system itself is no longer the primary actor, but rather has been marginalized to impotency in the shadows of its offspring: the U. S. dollar based credit system, and derivatives markets -- the real forces to be reckoned with in today's financial world.

The United States and all those entrenched in U. S. dollar based assets are engaged in a formidable struggle with a rising competitive currency, the euro. The struggle is for primacy in being the chief global reserve currency, and unit of account for trade settlement. Each faction comprises the whole range of self-interests, some visible, some not; some identifiable, some not, or mis-identified. And in this complicated and confusing mist of information (fact and hearsay), opinions flourish, and ignorance remains the inspiring genius behind most editorial pages.

It is in this world that this chief Governor must truly govern, which literally means to steer. In the spirit of the Statesman he must navigate not to arrive at perfection, but at what is practicable; not for justice, upon which no two factions will agree; but for an equilibrium in which no faction is so disaffected as to threaten a damaging engagement, or powerful enough in relation to the remaining powers as to make such a threat a reality.

This the role of a Central Banker!? What of simply maintaining the integrity of the currency? Well I suppose if he were the very first Fed Governor, and got to write the rules, and had plenipotentiary powers vested in him, he might be able to do just that... for a while anyway... But his position is not granted the luxury of armchair analysis, and a test lab for practice. He is dealt the hand he is dealt, and must enter the game in progress. The actions he takes are realtime, and irreversible. He has not inherited a text book case study with the answers at the back. Where he intersects with the sum total of all history is where he must begin his work. And as we attempt to discuss what he has done with it all, we must confront our own struggles to interpret the little we know without further distorting it with of our own biases.

Alan Greenspan has acted to the best of his not small abilities. He has had to restrain, assuage, and compromise with all forces. Where there has been folly, he must not expose the fool, where impropriety, he cannot be the whistle-blower, as his role is not policeman. Has the pressure of a perceived unfixable situation caused him to err, and err again? Only as often as you or I, and probably less. Has such pressure ever caused him to stretch or even break the rules? I don't know, but we have all done as much on our own scale somewhere in our lives. Does the Fed operate within its charter? No, I think it has clearly overstepped its bounds, but it is no easy, possibly even feasible matter to try and turn back the clock here. Given the momentum of things as they are unfolding, to try to go back from here would do no more than cause a footnote to be registered of one man's quixotic gesture to change a world that did not want to be changed.

The role of the Statesman is to limit conflict, and mitigate the catastrophic; hence fostering an environment for stability. He must attempt this by deploying his strategy against opposing and often hostile forces who are not prone to cooperate for so vague a notion as the "common good," but must be compelled to cooperate because it is perceived to be in their best interest. Is this his chartered role? No, not really. But if you found yourself suddenly in charge of a juggernaut hurtling uncontrollably who-knows-where, you might be inclined to don a few different hats in order to gain some control.

In light of all this, what does the future hold? Fundamentally, the U. S. dollar, the issued note of the Federal Reserve, is in terminal condition as far as its role as a global reserve asset, implying its ability to represent a stable value store. I believe it was given an extension of life to this end as a result of the "War on Terrorism." Support was provided to allow a semblance of soundness to legitimize the immense expansion of our debt to fund the war effort, and increased security measures. This was so because the world generally agreed that it was in their interests to let us use our resources to contain and hopefully subdue a rogue entity who had demonstrated both the will and capacity to upset the stability of the world order.

Once the perception is that the crisis has abated, support will no longer be guaranteed. We may be at that point now (witness the stress in bonds, which is very possibly a foreign liquidation of dollars).

With the U. S. Treasury unable to convincingly affect the long end of the yield curve to their advantage, the Fed will probably lobby Congress early next session for authority to deal in mortgage-backed GSEs. They will get their wishes. This will probably drop yields for a moment, and maybe two if this ignites housing, and encourages home-equity mortgages to the end that consumer spending spikes. But even at that it will likely be short-lived.

The current spike in silver is a head fake, and silver will come out of the woodwork to pour on this fire before it gets out of control. It will come from some big player, who will certainly be compensated for the favor.

A sudden overwhelming rise in the gold price will be resisted. Such a rise would so risk a tectonic shift in the balance of power that the ensuing unknowns can not be tolerated. Political nobodies, who have substantial gold, collectively become a force to be reckoned with if gold goes up a hundred-fold. The unpredictability of these new powers as to how they would behave generates tremendous political pressure to manage any price rise carefully.

The bigger players are however leaving hints all over the place that gold will rise again. They seem to be suggesting relatively small, and controlled increases. Collectively their endeavors will synthesize into bringing this general theme to fruition. Once more, not necessarily in league (although such conspiring probably does exist), but rather by their diverse interests best being served by a similar outcome.

I think we are best to heed the clues left us by the big guns, but act according to the wisdom offered us by Mike, Randy, FOA, Another, and countless others, i.e., to buy the physical metal itself. These big players, who have unfathomable power to influence things, are likely to be successful in their undertakings (in the short term, anyway). In order to achieve their ends, some nasty activity will take place, and if you are holding paper that can be manipulated at will, you will suffer.

So buy gold, not its substitutes. Live your life each day as much as possible without worrying what "they" are going to do next. With a savings vehicle as road-tested as the yellow metal, that is still being sold at fire-sale prices, you really cannot go wrong.

Personally, I don't want gold to go to $20,000 tomorrow (or even $2,000), and it's not for want of further accumulation. In fact if you really reflected upon what life would be like if the global economy blew up so badly, and so quickly that it would precipitate such a rise, you wouldn't either. It is for the avoidance of such catastrophes that the Fed acts today (and other Central Banks) so contrary to its original charge. It has evolved into this both by its own actions, and the actions (or want of actions) of others. It has acted on a global scale, influenced by massive world wars, political cataclysms, and upheavals of such orders of magnitude for nearly 88 years that it is indeed more surprising that it has not transformed even more radically.

While we may argue forever about how bad things really are or were, and make conjecture about what would have happened had this or that been done, we were not in the hot seat, experiencing the relentless pressures, the tests of our convictions, the challenges to our integrity, receiving insults and derisions, and tempted by the beguiling and intoxicating potions of power and praise. In light of that, I think Alan Greenspan has done his job well. Not without mistakes and even regrets -- yet I'm sure he would be the first to jump up and admit that; but he has done well.

So my hats off to Maestro Greenspan; and gold -- get you some...


MythicalMikal#6664012/8/01; 23:24:03

Mikal: Congratulations on your contest victory. Glad to see that has given you the incentive to post more often- I enjoy your posts. Also congrats go out to Black Blade and Christian on runner-up victories.

Lady Leigh: Somehow I sense that my little girl will one day do exactly as your young ones are doing today- dazzle the youngsters with the ultimate form of wealth. I too enjoy my Uruguayan Pesos and Argentino's purchased at Centennial, but after coming up empty on this latest contest I have a hankering for some Russian gold. I may give in to the online offer and I would suggest to anyone else considering it that they won't be disappointed. I currently own a Russian 15 Rouble and the coin is quite beautiful. As Henri would say: Clink, Clink!

Mr Gresham: If I may be so bold as to answer your question to Henri. It is my understanding that the British mint a current bullion coin- the Brittania which is tremendously beautiful(carries a nice premium) coin as is it's design. There is also a mint located in the United Kingdom and (France?) called the Pobjoy Mint that mints the "Cats series", Cherubs, and the Isle of Man Angels that are quite beautiful and popular. I believe these would all constitute European, if I'm wrong I apologize. Hope this helps.


megatron (12/7/01; 20:38:28MT - msg#: 66587)
In Fact.....

megatron (12/7/01; 20:29:31MT - msg#: 66586)
Think of the guy in the comic book store on the Simpson's.That's all you need to visualize.

megatron (12/7/01; 20:25:51MT - msg#: 66585)
Don't bother fretting over moronic prattle. Soon there will be a new 'mantra' from the muslim cleric and we will be shown how wrong we are, by those wise men who know all. ...........

In all fairness, I too would like to see Silver appreciate nicely and I'll admit that I prefer Gold to Silver, but I think your posts crossed the line. Actually, I think these latest musings from yourself set a new precedent for "moronic prattle". You speak so fondly of the animated cartoon The Simpson's and cleverly associate certain people on this forum with the characters on the show (perhaps in relation to your profession of cartoon technical production is it?) so I thought it would be fun to steal a page from your book and mention who I visualize when I read your tasteless posts- that would be Barney. For those of you not familiar with the Simpson's, Barney is the worthless drunk who chronically belches while exhibiting certains flashes of brilliance on occasion. Yeah...that's funny!

To all: I apologize, but I think certain trash belong at "that other site".


megatronMystical#6664112/08/01; 23:39:23

Yeah it was in bad taste. Too bad I'm right.
The CoinGuyBlack Blade#6664212/9/01; 00:44:57

I had to address your owning that Browning 10 Guage. I'm a country boy myself, and don't usually speak up about the fact that city ways are "just not for me".

I grew up with a Remington, but bought that Browning last year. the kick wasn't as hard, the accuracy was there, and I showed my friends up shooting skeets in the backyard. I'm a Southpaw, so I bought the BPS with the feed/ejection out of the bottom. Overall, a high quality shotgun.

I have to admit I am sick and tired of reading these posts with you snabbing those ducks(smile). Around here(southern Nebraska in Superior, look at yer map) we live in the flyway, but it seems the only ducks we get through here are those damn snow geese by the hundreds of thousands. They blanket the sky, but they also taste like liver and kidneys...

In the early fall, the best hunting thats available around here are the mourning doves. The best darn meat in the world...cooked properly that is. Other than that, the pheasant takes the cake.

You know...I can't wait for gold to rise. I don't care(well actually I do) if FOA's target is reached, I'm just waiting for the party that is going to commence afterwards. I'm looking forward to meeting all the posters and lurkers alike. This ought to be interesting...

Of course, this has something to do with gold..Ain't those Browning triggers pretty?

The Country CoinGuy

The Invisible Hand¡No conf'e en el gobierno!#6664312/9/01; 02:01:11

In Wednesday's commentary, Michael said that "We could be as little as one Enron away from its greatest rise in history"
USAGOLD (12/5/01; 09:27:52MT - msg#: 66435)

I am wondering whether Argentina is not that next Enron.

Black Blade's msg 66526(¡Compre Oro no los D--lares! ¡No conf'e en el gobierno! Proteja ustedes mismos contra el desastre econ--mico y compre oro para seguridad econ--mica) of last Thursday from which the title of this message is taken was 'translated’ as follows by the BBC:
"The big problem the [International Monetary] Fund has with Argentina is the same that investors and Argentines themselves have - we don't have faith in the ability of the government. So the Fund should not believe promises the government makes will be fulfilled," said Aldo Abram, an economist with consultants Exante.

Last time I checked Drudge was still posting a message from DPA saying that
(Argentine Interior Minister Ramon) Mestre said that the need to present a united front was such that President de la Rua might even be meeting on Friday afternoon with his predecessor, Carlos Menem, to forge a political agreement between the ruling Radical Civic Union party and the Peronists

The article also said that Cavallo went back to Washington on Friday. The BBC reports that the talks failed and quotes Cavallo as saying
"I am leaving because we have to work with the president, the cabinet and the provincial governors so that we are sure we are able to what's necessary so that Argentina inspires credibility," Mr Cavallo said.

Tomorrow, Monday December 10, there's a general strike in Venezuela.
NEW YORK, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Wall Street investors braced for a general strike in Venezuela on Monday, amid worries that political missteps in the standoff between business leaders and the government might escalate into violence.

Yes, I know Argentina and Venezuela are not neighbours but they share the same half-continent, but if Argentina is going to influence all other emerging markets and thereby the rest of the world, will it not be itself influenced by events in Caracas?

To paraphrase Henri's msg#: 66485 of last Thursday: Who's John Galt (for goldbugs)?

Belgian@ Henri#6664412/9/01; 05:13:22

Your posting # 66556 about deflation/zero rates : Answer is covered by miner49er's (Brilliant) post of # 66639.

To all silver believers : Apart from the supply/demand and LT abysmal pricing of silver...will it be considered as a permanent "store of wealth" in the coming total collapse that is threathening the currency (money) basics ?
If Gold's Valuation, moves into the forefront again, and goes ballistic (far beyond 600$)...will silver not be abonded, somewhere down that road and join the dominating ruling of Gold ? I personally am afraid that this might happen, considering the big picture. Silver as more a commodity than Gold, become less commodity and more money again.

The Invisible HandThe black market before and after the German Mark#6664512/9/01; 06:05:43,,9008-2001570057,00.html

It is ironic that the demise of the D-mark should have uncovered such a huge cache of undeclared earnings. The D-mark's arrival in 1948 rescued a nation mired in the black market. But more recently the market has re-emerged and grown, though for different reasons.
Post-war Germany was a wasteland that survived on barter; 21st century Germans are siphoning off the fat of the land into baubles, Mercedes cars and foreign accounts.


The article doesn't speak about flight to gold contrary to the article in Der Spiegel mentioned in
The Invisible Hand (11/17/01; 19:12:57MT - msg#: 65506)
Flight from the black Deutsche Mark to the yellow,1518,168276,00.html

Perhaps manipulation is preventing the POG from displaying the influx of pre-euro money. Who knows?

CoBra(too)Gold from weak to strong hands...#6664612/09/01; 10:38:43

As a first brief recap of the N.O. Investment Conference, which traditionally is the meeting place of 'benign' contrarians, I couldn't help but notice that even some of the most sturdy anti-conspiracy guys have begun leaning towards using increasingly stronger words in this context.

- Starting from intervention, certainly a heavy hand to hold down gold, outright manipulation, gold cartel and cabal to conspiracy were the terms used in describing the
gold market since 1995, even by some of the most ardent believers in the theorem of demand/supply driven (free) markets. - The action of the gold market of the last few years can't be rationalized as typical market behavior driven by fundamentals any longer.

As MK said in his great essay a few days ago - we may be only one more Enron away - before the gold frees itself from the shackles of the cartel has gained credibility.

Any event from here on may spark gold's meteoric rise. Is it Anglo's double speak Bobby G. is "sweating bullets" (thanks for coining this term, whoever takes the credit) as Peter Munk may also start re-thinking the wisdom of opverhedging at a long market bottom building, the NEM/FN/NDY merger has a fair chance to succeed and, yes, another Enron...

Following is quoted from Bob Chapman:

FOCUS STOCK – Gold, A Cycle Opportunity:

Over the past twenty years gold has been manipulated down by Central Banks. It has been demeaned by New Era investors as a viable investment vehicle and generally struggled within a strong dollar and dis-inflationary environment. So it is within this extreme cycle of abandonment by individual and professional investors that is allowing a confluence of positive factors to develop in unrecognized fashion that is creating a 12 to 18-month cycle play for gold, that has the potential to triple the value of the XAU index over that period of time. Gold responds well historically during periods of extremes. Economic fundamentals are now at points of extreme, in terms of deflationary unwinding, as well as combined fiscal and monetary stimulus, along with technical evidence that the CRB index and copper may have bottomed, and it may suggest a new cycle of inflation is just ahead. Pronounced deflation or inflation is supportive for Gold as a value anchor and a viable tradable currency. Our war effort worldwide is at its greatest commitment since World War II. Year over year gold demand continues to out-pace production. While the list of viable producers has diminished, most marginal producers have gone out of business. And there are no new production projects of any great degree planned in the near future. Gold is at extreme levels of under-ownership at this point of the cycle, so that the least amount of positive shift will have a dramatic affect upwards on pricing. Technicals are now aligned more positively and match points over the past 20 years that resulted in rallies for physical gold of $100 to $200/oz. Finally, the shift of ownership for gold above ground has gone from weak to strong hands. Because we believe that downside risk is minimal, we suggest a weighting in one or two gold stocks equal to 5% for a conservative portfolio and up to 10% for aggressive portfolios. This is a cycle play only at this time.
unquote -

More later - with regards cb2

tedwGold & siler play#6664712/09/01; 10:58:08

I noticed that Chapman of the International Forecaster
is recommending AEM (Agnico-Eagle) as a Silver mining play.

Since they are also an unhedged gold miner, it is looking to me like AEM is a good gold/silver play. I havent had time to research their current silver production, but they have a reputation as a silver miner.

Any thoughts?

Black BladeArgentina's Cavallo Upbeat on IMF Meetings - (Oh Really?)#6664812/09/01; 11:16:55


BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (Reuters) - Argentina's Economy Minister, Domingo Cavallo, said on Saturday he was coming back home from ``very, very good'' meetings with the IMF in Washington but likely faced a political maelstrom over spending cuts needed to rescue the country from disaster. As Argentines flooded banks, worried their savings could be vaporized by a major economic meltdown, Cavallo put a positive spin on talks aimed at coaxing $1.3 billion in badly needed frozen aid from the International Monetary Fund.

Despite widespread fears that the debt crisis could lead Argentina to devalue its peso currency -- which would instantly bankrupt thousands of people -- politicians and many on the street dread the idea of further budget cuts. With social tensions bubbling -- after egg-throwing protesters pelted the Central Bank last week and sharks from the opposition
Peronist Party said to be circling weakened President Fernando de la Rua -- forming political consensus was expected to be anything but easy. Paying the price for years of runaway budget deficits, De la Rua's government has hacked several billion dollars off its spending plans since taking office two years ago after promising to spur the economy.

Argentines were taking no chances, betting the IMF would refuse the funds and send the country tumbling into financial ruin and devaluing their savings. ``I'm not taking any chances,'' said Sonia Verbitich, a 52-year-old housewife, as she waited in line at a cash machine on Saturday. ``I've seen crises before but this one looks really bad, so I'm taking out as much cash as I can.'' Most large banks worked overtime on Saturday, opening their doors for extra hours to attend to jittery customers. Argentine banks have seen deposits decline about 17 percent this year. Over $1 billion left the system on just one day earlier this month. That run led the government to slap strict limits on bank withdrawals, limiting Argentines to just $250 a week in cash withdrawals for the next 90 days until Cavallo can sort out the country's debt problems with creditors. The tough rules slowed withdrawals, but at a steep price: the ensuing cash crunch has frozen consumer spending, with retail sales down as much as 80 percent last week compared to the week before, a merchants' group said on Saturday.

Black Blade: This does not look good. Just this last week the Argentine government confiscated pension funds to pay its bills. It looks as if revolution (again) is a possibility. Maybe they will sell off the last of their gold Argentinos and we might see some of them show up at the castle. Who knows?

Invisible Hand,

We should see a lot of fallout as the Argentine situation deteriorates. Russian Bond Default, LTCM, Asian Contagion, Global Recession, etc. It seems as if it is one thing after another and the FED and IMF are like the little Dutch boy sticking his fingers in the dike to plug all the leaks.


Got a couple of mallards this morning just down the road and going out again in a couple of hours. The 10 gauge is a hefty gun. Probably not a lot of kick because of the weight. Yes, that is a nice gold plated trigger and a bit of gold inlay on the engraved underside of the trigger guard. Nice engraving of ducks on one side and turkeys on the other. Snow geese? Now that would be fun. Hope to nail some Canadians soon (geese that is). Cheers!

haroldBanks Short exposure#6664912/09/01; 11:51:34

I was discussing the money center banks short exposure,and incentive to keep POG low w/ friend last night and he suggested that, contrary to Hamilton's argument that JPM's incentive to keep POG low is to keep from blowing up their delta hedge position, rather, their 2 primary reasons are 1)greed - the gold carry trade has been a license to print money for them, and 2) their desire to keep their customers from blowing up their hedge books (Ashanti style). He also argues that JPM has no real short exposure to POG. In short, mining company A sells forward, bank B buys option from A, B leases gold from central bank C @ say Libor -1, sells it at $x and reinvests @ say Libor +1, this profit pays for option bought from A. If POG didn't move this becomes a scratch trade for B except for commissions (peanuts). They do however now own a free option (long calls) However, if POG goes down they purchase gold at a price below $x and there's your profit (on the profitable short sale). If POG were to rise they own the calls bought
from A, thus no exposure to a rise in POG. What a deal wouldn't we all like these types of 'no-risk trades'.

harold(No Subject)#6665012/9/01; 12:11:20

Take it a few steps forward.... do the banks really care for their customers that much, yeah right.....greed - well if the POG were to explode they could make one hell of a lot more $ from the free calls they own. The central banks must be complicit in some sort of deal. If they're not one must assume that 1) the banks are greedy, but 'not that greedy' and 2) they really do care about the fidicuary duty to their marks, er,...I mean customers.
ORORandy, Netking, all - Silver#6665112/9/01; 12:33:03

It should be remembered that silver has preceded gold in monetary uses historically, and has outperformed gold when the small buyer increased relative income to the high and mighty. Why? because it is the "poor man's gold" and a one oz. coin costs much less than the minimal 1/20 th ounce gold piece (which is nearly a spec of dust). Considering that the rich are business owners and their executives, it would stand to reason that during a recession, which is the loss of business' profit power, silver outperforms gold. Gold tracks profits and silver tracks revenue just as labor earns the bulk of revenue.

For less than the price of two 1 oz gold pieces one can (if they find any) buy a 100 oz bar. For the 5 oz. silver buyer, the alternative is a 1/10 oz gold piece or two. And that 1/10 th oz piece is not going to be divisible, but the 5 one oz pieces would.

So, if you are rich because you owned the cash flow from a business but your labor costs have come too close to revenue to provide you much cash flow, then you simply lose your income. Labor, which was priced out of your employment would obviously have the upper hand in relative incomes going into a recession. Indeed, the recession's main characteristic (as it was of "stagflation" in the late 60s and 70s) was a rise in relative incomes of wage earners to business income. Over the stagflationary 70s the ratio shifted from early 60's 33% business income to labor income, to 21% in 1971, to below 15% in 1982. The ratio flattened and rose slowly through the 80s and peaked at a near 1960's 26% level in 1998, from which point it went to below 20% at the end of September.

As to the stock of silver in weak hands and the leverage of silver derivatives in relation to annual production, governments (i.e. weak hands) no longer hold substantial silver stocks despite the bulk of silver being landed in the US like a heavy rock during the "demonetization" of silver in Europe of the 19th century. The silver coinage stock hanging over the markets for decades has finally come to an end. Remaining silver stocks not in private hands are minimal. Those in monetary silver bar form are miniscule and becoming disproportionate to derivatives - about 1.4 billion notional ounces, 400 million netted. This compares with 1.6 billion and 800 mil netted in 1997, when silver rose nearly 60% (these are estimates from LBMA and OCC data, not hard numbers - and may be considered as having a +/- 20% error).

Gold stocks at central banks, though shrouded in obfuscatory book keeping, are still providing a heavy overhang relative to silver. Though FOA and his thieving "giant" friends have no intentions on creating a silver bubble as they do in gold, it is silver that is stretched thinner.

If we use LBMA transfer volumes as a guide to liquidity in these markets, then while gold clearings fell 40% since 1997, silver clearings fell 65%. Furthermore, copper producers have shut down some capacity, thus lowering silver supply while gold exploration has become much cheaper (see Doug Casey's article at URL above), and his arguments for increased gold demand from newly industrialized Asia hold doubly for silver.

Silver clearings at LBMA fell from 8 times gold clearings (in oz.) to less than 5 times. That indicating a greater tightness in silver than in gold, considering that silver is historically produced at a 1:13 to 1:15 proportion to gold.

Thus if silver supply is leaner than that of gold relative to demand, then the result of a "gold bubble" resulting from ECB and other central bank's purchases of gold to "back" their currency would be a substantially higher proportional rise in silver prices, as the excess gold price rise caused by CB purchases in Another's "better gold standard" would bring a large scale accumulation of silver in private hands to replace gold taken by central banks. Thus silver could very well be the first revived monetary metal resulting from the CB's artificial "gold bubble".

We'll have to discuss this more carefully later.

harold(No Subject)#6665212/9/01; 12:35:19

If Hamilton's right and the banks have short exposure to a rise in POG, then it is the result of cowboys at the desks, ie. Nick Leason. Possibly they are so sure this is a gimme trade by the guv, that they are in fact short calls up to their eyeballs. These short volatility traders see the selling of options as printing money, and some love to pick up nickels in front of a steam roller.
Cavan Man@CB2#6665312/9/01; 12:38:13

Shame on Mr. Chapman; only 10%??? He must be referring to gold cufflinks alone eh?
goldfoolDollar Devaluation?#6665412/9/01; 13:55:30

Are we being set up for a devaluation in the dollar? Consider this: Bush/Putin agreement to limit Russian oil output and thus a decrease in its price (good for economic recovery, hedge against terrorist disruption of supply, and rise in the price of crude to $26 after dollar devaluation?); IMF refuses to help Argentina (they know that aid in the form of a 30%? dollar devaluation is on the way which would effectively reduce their bond debt by 30%); official debut of the Euro January 2002 (parity with US dollar would make its acceptance a little more likely though it would make their exports more expensive); Gold funds going short, commercials going long; Gold mining companies reducing the size of their hedge books; Enron disaster; Plunging 30 year bond; JPMC's interest rate derivative book; dwindling US gold and silver reserves; running out of interest rate cuts; and did you know that 3 out of the 4 people occupying the office of the Secretary of the Treasury during major devaluations since the 1970s were Texans? (John Connalley, Lloyd Bensten, and Jim Baker, excuse the spelling).
AndúrilThe good statistician as a shoddy economist#6665512/9/01; 13:59:48

Any such historian of numbers may impress the idle public by his skill at driving a car forward with a blackened windshield, cleverly using the rearview mirror as his guide. Alas! The road turns, as does his fortune.
LeighORO#6665612/9/01; 14:31:53

ORO, forgive me for entering into the fray, but I was appalled at your statement about "FOA and his thieving friends." That was a slanderous thing to say. You have no proof that FOA and his friends are thieves. It is far more likely that FOA and ANOTHER are simply messengers trying to warn us of the upcoming financial storm. And you want to shoot them because you don't like their message.

ORO, you shouldn't make such terrible charges without serious proof, which you can't possibly have without knowing who FOA is and exactly what his role is in the coming events.

Cavan ManLeigh#6665712/9/01; 15:07:58


I completely agree with you. There is no reason to be so rude and inconsiderate.

ORO: I have read several additional sources/opinions that draw the same conclusions as FOA. I believe FOA is drawing conclusions based upon knowledge and experience. You believe he has an agenda. Perhaps we are both right. Nevertheless, your ideological differentiation does not require insult and slander for your point(s) to be made.

The CoinGuyORO's commentary....Prolific Prose and then some...#6665812/9/01; 15:13:21

"Gold stocks at central banks, though shrouded in obfuscatory book keeping, are still providing a heavy overhang relative to silver. Though FOA and his thieving "giant" friends have no intentions on creating a silver bubble as they do in gold, it is silver that is stretched thinner."


Statements like this aren't necessary to get your point across, nor do they lend to strengthening your argument. I happen to believe you have the most profilic well thought out posts on this site, and I was enjoying the read, but statements like these I have seen keeps this from being the well-lit clean place I think we all enjoy.

I've never seen a direct insult from the other party mentioned in your comments, this lends itself to others believing this is a continous personal attack on FOA.

Most people can overlook a point where you take apart Anothers argument, here and there, and understand your point, and these "points" are well taken, but these "personal" attacks grow tiresome over time.

For the sake of the board, can you please refrain?

Gold to the moon...Silver too

The CoinGuy

auspecCavan Man......Maybe 10% is a Typo?#6665912/9/01; 15:33:10

Maybe Mr. Chapman really meant 100%?
In actuality this paragraph posted called "A Cycle Opportunity" is by Nick Russo and his newsletter called Momentum Monitor. Robt. Chapman gave full credit for this piece in his Cafe post, but not in his GE post, thus the confusion, apparently.

Personally, I'm gonna take it as a typo, no?
Kind Regards!

auspecgold{no}fool#6666012/9/01; 15:43:30

Excellent perspective, nobody's fool wrote that post.

Let's see about a dollar devaluation:

POG at $ 275......... add in an additional 30%.......takes us to approx $357..........not bad for starters!
Alas, it appears as though THEY can keep the lid on the suppressed gold market for 3 more weeks to finish out the full year. OR CAN THEY????

Interstate@ Leigh @The Coin Guy @ Cavan Man#6666112/9/01; 16:07:46

I thought ORO's post was very informative and IMO, Another and FOA are quite capable of defending themselves if they feel the need.

Overlooking the taking apart of a point, and with good reason, means that you will forget that someone disagrees with your guru.

We MUST keep an open mind to ALL ideas and Yes, question them, take them apart and see if the idea can withstand scrutiny. If not, then it is not valid

ORO: Please keep offering your opinions, so that we can make comparisons with opinions of others. I found nothing offensive in your post, only opinions.
Later, Interstate

goldquestNewmont makes superior offer for Normandy#6666212/9/01; 16:11:01

Newmont wants it bad!
auspecFOA & Friends#6666312/9/01; 16:15:16

I'm simply filling in a gap here for those that are missing some Trail activity, OK? Please don't take me too seriously, as that is usually a mistake.

Don't buy mining shares.
Don't buy gold futures or options.
The US$ is failing, the Euro is preening.
Ignore the fundamentals of silver, they're a big lie.
Stick with physical gold for the future it will hold.
Paper can pack quite a charge, but is ephemeral.
We must wrest control of the gold pricing mechanism from the Western 'markets'.

Who are FOA and Friends? Friends of the Euro, no doubt, and thus Friends of fiat, what else is possible? Certainly Friends of gold {in hand} and certainly to the benefit of the fiat Euro. Which is their BEST Friend, gold or Euro?

Eurocrats, Bureaurocrats, Aristocrats, Western-rats....... choose your pison carefully, eh?

Oh, by the way......This guy is most sincerely grateful for the FOA message!

CoBra(too)NEM/FN/NDY Merger - News Alert! #6666412/9/01; 16:48:02

Looks like NEM topped AU counter offer (which was "the last" offer according to AU Spokesman) substantially and NDY Management approves and will advise shareholders accordingly.

If correct - a major feat for non-hedgers and a major feat for physical gold - and unhedged miners ... times are a' changing...

Cheers - cb2

HenriBelgian msg 66644#6666512/9/01; 17:13:57

Thank you Belgian, I just returned from the weekend scout camping trip and was wondering if anyone had addressed the issue. Your post was a welcome milepost marker in the daunting task of trying to catch up.

Thanks once again

Black BladeNormandy board backs fresh Newmont bid#6666612/9/01; 17:39:28


SYDNEY, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Takeover target Normandy Mining Ltd said on Monday its board recommended shareholders accept a revised A$1.90 a share bid from Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM). The latest salvo in a bidding war between U.S. group Newmont and South African rival AngloGold, offers shareholders 0.0385 Newmont shares and 40 Australian cents for each Normandy shares, a 15 percent premium to AngloGold's rival offer. ``The offer is above the recently revised AngloGold offer by a good margin, which is a great result for Normandy shareholders and consistent with the Normandy board's objectives throughout this process,'' Normandy chief executive Robert Champion de Crespigny said in a statement to the Australian Stock Exchange.

Black Blade: This NEM counter offer was expected as Normandy told shareholders to wait for the NEM response. As desperate as AngloGold is I would expect Bobby Godsell to tender a counter offer unless he absolutely can't afford it or get a loan. Maybe AU and ABX will throw in together as both of these hedgers are extremely desperate to keep the POG in check. If NEM begins to unwind 9 million oz. of Normandy edges it will mean "Game Over" for Gold shorts AU and ABX. If the POG rises, both AU and ABX are toast.

The CoinGuyInterstate#6666712/9/01; 17:41:00

I don't disagree with anything you said. ORO's posts are healthy blood for the forum, and I thoroughly agree that all opinions should be considered, but personal attacks don't lend strength to any argument? Do they?

I must not have explained myself well enough. I enjoy ORO's posts. When I check into the forum, as I have been doing for years now. I always look forward to a post from ORO, his clear concise arguments are always well written
dissertations of whatever topic he has chosen. "Always" a pleasurable read.

I realize FOA/Another can defend themselves, and I don't feel as though I need to put my .02 in on their behalf.

To the contrary, I was putting my big mouth in on Michaels behalf because he has been kind enough to allow a forum with little moderation, "a clean well-lit place" where forum members should be able to express their opinions free from personal attacks.

I was clearly commenting on the remark, not the person who made the remark, or in defense of to whom the remark was meant.

This was my point of contention, if it wasn't clear, I apologize...

The CoinGuy

goldfoolAuspec#6666812/9/01; 17:51:48

I'm not quite sure if they can wait until the end of the year. It will depend on how serious the Argentina/Enron situation becomes (1998 revisited-Russia/LTCM however this time their are too many balls to juggle). Alan Greenspan is running out of options. Sorry, I noticed I left out the word "not" in front of "to limit Russian oil output..."
Ten BearsArgumentum ad hominem#6666912/9/01; 18:09:25

An argument directed at the speaker and not the facts or logic of his argument...generally used when the facts do not favor the individual using this form of fallacious argument.
Those of us on this forum have enough enemies outside the gold community. Please,let us be civil to each other.

Black BladeNormandy rallies 6.5% on fresh bid#6667012/9/01; 18:22:16


Analysts said the new bid, which is above the top end of an independent expert valuation from Grant Samuel & Associates of A$1.48 to A$1.88, would make it very difficult for AngloGold or any other interested party to stay in the race. ``Newmont have bid what they hope to be a knockout bid above the top end of the expert valuation of A$1.88,'' said Commonwealth Securities resources analyst John Cathcart. "It will make it difficult for AngloGold to come back with a counter bid as they will be paying far more than the independent expert valuation,'' he said. Cathcart did not think the door was completely closed to new bidders such as Canada's Barrick Gold (Toronto:ABX.TO). However, he said the bidding had probably reached its highest point.

Black Blade: I would suspect that "analysts" Tim Wood and David McKay are really bummed out tonight as their masters backed the losing horse. I figured that this race had a long way to go to the finish. It still may not be over. There is a lot more at stake than what appears on the surface.

CanuckBack up plan#6667112/9/01; 18:32:41$25million

I've been thinking HARD this week-end and I have come up with this. If gold has a nice run this week I will make some decent coin. If gold flips and flops I will have to strike up some dough the old-fashioned way.

Now I hear that Mr. Laden's head is worth 25 million, eyes blinking or not.

And I've been hearing that this world is getting turned around worse than #8 Robertson woodscrew. The Phillips screw was patented in the States but the Canadian 'square' Robertson was issued here first, in the bona-fide True North.
(Rumour has it that Eskimos secure an igloo with #10, 3 inch self-tapping screws between ice blocks.)

So. . . . . in the unlikely event that I do not make a 'piss-pile' of 'money' this week I
have taken the unprecidented task of booking a one-way flight to Afganistan. The back-up plan is to capture the 'Binster', book the 25 million. . . . . and . . . . let's say. . . . . . . . .lie low.

After a day or three, I may call a fervent news station and tell them that Osama and I are hanging out, lying low playing some 'Monopoly' and 'Risk'. This is to attract attention. Soon I suspect, a monster crowd will gather outside of my motel room and I will open the door revealing a 'duct-taped' Bin Laden. I know my god-damn rights so I can turn over Mr. Laden or I can negotiate a better deal for his release.

The opening bid for a 'swap' option will be $26,000,000. . .. . . . call options on the man's life expectancy will open at $1,000 per contract at a strike price of 41. . . . expiry to be determined. Shares prices in the motel ('End Of The Road'; ETR, Nasdaq) I imagine will increase sharply from 17 cents to $3,200 but I expect traders open interest to fall off dramatically after expiry of DEAD0102OBL.

I was out this week-end and got my brokerage license Saturday morning so I will personally handle all transactions, I pre-warn any of you paper-players not to mess with me because I have my 20-hour futures and options certificate. Opening bids can be forwarded to the above link.

Canuck, B.S.A.

A Canadian CANUCKS BRILLIANT PLAN#6667212/9/01; 18:39:23

I'M COMING WITH YOU. (multihead screwdriver is packed.)
mikalRe: Silver#6667312/9/01; 18:41:23

A friendly, level-headed offering of statistics, comparisons, and conclusions is "discussion" and enthusiastically welcome here 24/7. Whether it is reasoned, impartial, and decisive conclusions that "take apart" an idea or theory is subjective. Oro's points do not go beyond opinion, especially when offered without reasoned conclusions and with assumptions of future silver affinity and offtake. Abstractions, generalizations, and presumptions are fine when offered in the right spirit, but I won't be convinced by seeing them over and over with or without accolades from anyone.
Canuck@ BB#6667412/9/01; 18:45:36

So now the push is for a Au/ABX/NRDY merger.

What happens in this event?

Canuck@ A Canadian#6667512/9/01; 18:47:18

Are you a Canuck dude?
LeighCanuck#6667612/9/01; 18:52:41

You'd better hurry up. The Drudge Report says that Osama's going to commit suicide on TV.
Black BladeLeigh#6667712/9/01; 18:57:00

Will that be "Pay-Per-View"?
Canuck@ The Coin Guy#6667812/9/01; 18:58:41

There's something I just don't follow; maybe you or others (Leigh?) might have an opinion.

Why the sudden disappearance of FOA/Another and Aristotle?

Ari came back 'gung-ho' and left, what do you make of that?

Canuck@ Leigh#6667912/9/01; 19:00:38

Phone them and tell them to 'hold-the-fort', I'm landing in Kabul in 20 minutes.
Black BladeCanuck#6668012/9/01; 19:03:10

In a AU/ABX/NDY merger I suspect that they win unless Goldfields throws in with NEM. If AU, ABX, and NDY merge - who is CEO? I suggest that Randall Oliphant and Booby Godsell have a "Duel" to the death and the survivor is CEO. If both die then Robert Champion de Crespigny becomes boss. Just my solution is all :-)

- Black Blade

Canuck@ Leigh#6668112/9/01; 19:04:01

I hope you guys have 'PIP' televisions.

Osama with a pistol at his head and the split screen showing Time Square.


Canuck@ BB#6668212/9/01; 19:06:24

SA won't throw in Goldfields, we've been down that road before.

How about throw in Goldcorp and Agnico with Franco?

Canuck@ BB#6668312/9/01; 19:08:39

Just saw your 'Pay-per-view' and I can't find my damn credit card!!!!
LeighCanuck#6668412/9/01; 19:12:39

I'm baffled about Aristotle. He promised to come back, remember? He had some question that he wanted us to think about - I can't remember what it was - and he said he'd be back in a week or so to discuss it further. That was several months ago.

I think - my opinion only - FOA withdrew because he thought there was a lack of interest here at the Forum in what he was saying. For some reason people weren't discussing his posts (though ORO had some unkind things to say), and when MK offered a contest about which of FOA's posts over the previous month had been most worthwhile, only a few people entered it. (The contest was only open for a few days, though.) FOA had been posting very often prior to that and really had a lot to say. I think he must have been hurt that no one seemed interested. It's a shame, because he really was leading up to some interesting stuff, and he was getting more excited. I wish he'd come back. The Euro is about to take off, and we're about to see the very events he has predicted for so long. I think it would be fun to read what he has to say at this momentous time.

Canuck@ BB#6668512/9/01; 19:15:07

Wow, typing to beat the band.

Franco has an ACE up its sleeve. They didn't secure the 100 million (or is it 50 million?) on the fold-up/break-up penalty for the NEM/NDY/FN merger on a whim and a prayer.

Canuck@ Leigh#6668612/9/01; 19:30:07

Ari was back here a month (maybe 6 weeks ago) after a 'years sabatical'. Yes, Ari had asked a question that half a dozen posters toyed with but all of a sudden there he was.............gone!!

I've always had trouble reading FOA, I jumped over to the Another archive and semi-followed his oil discussions. Then back to FOA and still didn't connect to FOA's train of thought.

I read a couple dozen 'analyst/editorial' reports, which I am sure you read as many, and I find some easier to read than others.


I understand Dr. Doolittle, ages 5-8; I comprehend a great deal from his works, I understand Oro as much as my first year physics prof. I understand gold as much as I understand my mother's agenda for Christmas.


A Canadian@ CANUCK#6668712/9/01; 19:31:02

If montreal is still part of Canada; then yes!
mikal@Leigh#6668812/9/01; 19:36:31

I agree and also miss FOA, Aristotle, and others. I look forward to hearing encouragement and advice from varied perspectives and backgrounds, especially when informed by long, hard-fought experience. We know he engaged many of us beyond our expectations and tried to be fun when our gold times got rough! He wouldn't take credit for it though, and we weren't the most responsive bunch, as you said.
slingshotCanuck#6668912/9/01; 19:50:50

Off to see the wizard eh? Follow the yellow brick road.

White HillsBlanchard#6669012/9/01; 20:00:04

I have no idea if this has been discussed before. I received a picture post card from Blanchard which in heavy bold black letters anounced "GOLD BULLION IS CAUGHT IN A BEAR TRAP" it continues "It can't go up-much-but its downside risk is huge. Why? What happens when the price of gold goes down?" they continue"Fed studies have found that, if central banks wanted to maximize the return from their gold reserves, they should sell that gold immediately, without prior announcement! Should your decision be different?" They go on that if you own or are thinking about buying you must get their free report. WHO ARE THESE GUYS? I haven't sent for the report, has anybody else? Sounds to me like anti-gold propaganda.At golds present price what huge downside are they referring to? Anybody have any ideas? White Hills
Cavan ManWhite Hills#6669112/9/01; 20:04:15

Hi. Blanchard is owned by GE. IMO, they are a boiler room operation. The only trap that AU bullion is caught in is the one that is ready to spring open. $2.8 billion ain't small change!
Cavan Manauspec#6669212/9/01; 20:07:39


Why finance $2.8 billion for of all things a gold mine? In consideration of the current global economic circumstances, that is one heck of a long limb isn't it? Cheers!
Black BladeNewmont packs knockout gold punch#6669312/9/01; 20:42:23,4057,3405854%255E462,00.html


Normandy Mining's board will recommend Newmont's revised takeover offer. Normandy said that its board discussed Newmont's revised offer and formally met today to consider it. "Having regard to the increased value and improved terms of the offer, and the fact that it exceeds the value of AngloGold's revised offer ... and its current value ... by a significant margin, the board ... has approved and agreed to recommend that Normandy shareholders accept the revised Newmont offer and therefore reject the revised AngloGold offer," it said.

Black Blade: Knock out punch? Hmmm…

WaveriderAnduril#6669412/9/01; 20:54:45

The astute analyst knows there is no predictive value in historical correlations. Hence the question was asked-what intervening variables are at play that would cause the pattern to change? The mind is open hence the windshield is clear.

Keep both your windshield and your rearview mirror clear-history repeats itself unknowingly when the rearview mirror is ignored, forgotten, or allowed to blacken - as the road turns he does not realize that he arrived from whence he began.

Incidentally, the economic database is my prize catch this week - it provides some fun figures to practice number crunching - I write PhD comprehensive exams in January.


uponroofBlanchard......#6669512/9/01; 21:12:13

They are intentionally dissing gold sell rare gold coins of which they have aplenty. IMHO, a sales pitch that is a few bridges too far.

Congrats mikal.

Nice to see the NDY ante being upped....What will Anglosoldout pull next? A Godsell promise to increase Indian jewellery carat inspections? Too bad that WGC soapbox he's been on these past few years is now working against him. What a waste of power. Whatever, you can bet the rest of the hedged mines in the world are watching with great interest as the 500 lb. gorilla, knowing the music is about to stop, needs more than one seat.

WaveriderSolomon Weaver#6669612/9/01; 21:39:39

I was perusing the archives earlier and saw your post #61110. I can't resist lifting my beautiful little schnapps glass with a blown glass pear in the center and toasting to your health with my precious Williams eau-de-vie! I have the great fortune of skiing in LaRosa or Davos in the winters at which time I replenish my stock of Williams - such fine quality is not available in Canada. Skiing.. raclette..shnapps..some of the finer things in life to be enjoyed and appreciated.

I had a question for the round table, it may interest you..I have tried to find mention of the Swiss franc in the archives and have yet to come across anything, or see any discussion. What is it's prognosis, if you will, with the coming events and euro countdown?

Mikal - thank you - somehow I managed to miss the Gold Trail (yikes) and got caught up in the archives which are quite tedious to wade through. I printed the first three Gold Trail Archives today and then ran out of paper. I have lots to study and digest.


BelgianMorning...#6669712/9/01; 23:09:34

- White Hills #66690-Blanchard : What better contra-indicator for Gold, can you wish for ? *Make* *it* *worthless* !!!!
This are not the tactics of lilliputans, but rather from Giants, using (abusing) water-carriers like Blanchard.

- Henri : The zero rates operators met some frightening resistance :
USTB_10 YRS / 4,19% (nov.) >> 5% not crushing '98 ATL 4,1%
USTB_30 YRS / 4,80% (nov.) >> 5,47% not crushing '98 ATL 4,70%
The declining *trends* haven't been broken, but the swift spike up is significant !
USTB_1 YR / 1,70% seems to bottom (?) with the 3 month (+ fed funds) - 1,66% still in decline.

Don't have reason to jump to conclusions right now, but tension is building. It is significant that the ATL's of '98 aren't pierced, considered the state of affairs (01/02), much worse now than in '98. Combine this with POG consolidating and still in a plus 2 years bottom building.

Low/lower interest rates (declining trend) for any currency is sign (false or not) of strength for that currency (US$).
Is clearly reflected in Dollar-Index. My vieuw / explanation for this management is nothing else but dollar-defense against (possible) euro-succes !

Goldenmean(No Subject)#6669812/10/01; 00:01:52

*****Greenspan Maestro or Music Man*****

If one is to assess which of the terms Maestro or Music Man best describe Mr. Greenspan one would need to determine if the present economic circumstances of the United States were wholly the result of his influence and policies or is the present predicament that the US economy finds itself in the result of the shift to a global economy. While Free Trade and anti-globalization protestors are seen to be fringe and irrational radicals who don't understand the economic benefits of cheap imports and unfettered capitalism, the mainstream has failed to address the problems that arise when economic systems and political system become disconnected. In the global economy it makes more sense to manufacture goods in countries where human capital is cheap and export to countries where human capital is expensive. Net exporting countries by consuming less than they produce acquiring savings and net importing countries by consuming more than they produce acquire debt. Our rational and intuitive mind tells us that this transfer of wealth cannot continue ad infinitum. Economic theory predicts that trade imbalances will lead to devaluation of the currency of the importing country and thereby make imports uncompetitive with goods produced domestically and it is through this process that trade imbalances are self limiting. This is of course in the fictional economic world where fundamental economic laws apply. In the world according to Mr. Greenspan trade imbalances can be sustained indefinitely, that there really is a free lunch, that foreign debt will never be called, and that short term political gain will not lead to long term economic pain. And it appears that this arrangement can go on as long as the net exporting countries agree to hold their savings in the currency of the net importing country and the net importing country maintains a strong currency so as to make it attractive as a store of value for foreign investors. And so it is in the interests of both parties to maintain a strong currency. The fatal flaw in this pact is that the strong currency erodes the manufacturing base of the importing country and the pricing power of labour and while the cheap imports contain inflation, the only way the consumer can afford to buy is on credit. Even as interest rates decline to zero, the consumer eventually hits a wall of debt. This wall of debt will eventually lead to a currency devaluation, massive domestic inflation and an environment where raising interest rates will threatened the financial system. What role has Greenspan had in this impending economic calamity. Is this current financial reality, an invention of Greenspan or a short sighted corporate agenda supported by the political regimes involved. I think the political will that has driven this experiment is bigger than Greenspan. But we all like to believe in Santa Claus. Greenspan role has been as a spin doctor, employing stop gap measures to prevent the unwinding of the inevitable. Greenspan evokes images of Nero fiddling while Rome burns. Sadly, Mr. Greenspan is a music man.

Black BladeAngloGold still sees Normandy as good fit#6669912/10/01; 00:15:46


SYDNEY, Dec 10 (Reuters) - South Africa's AngloGold Ltd, gazumped by U.S.-based Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM) in a takeover battle for Australia's Normandy Mining Ltd (Australia:NDY.AX), said on Monday it believes Normandy still makes a compelling asset fit.

Black Blade: The desperation level at AngloGold has moved up yet another notch. Now AU is making rumblings suggesting that they will up the bid to counter the NEM-FN offer. As I have said, this is a "do or die" move out of sheer desperation. They especially fear a removal of the huge hedge position and a rising POG. For AU this is a "MUST" win at all costs proposition.

Black BladeAsian Markets Sinking#6670012/10/01; 00:22:06

The Asian markets are in the red and European markets are starting off badly. Could get "Interesting."
Mr GreshamM'Lady Leigh (on FOA)#6670112/10/01; 00:49:41

I agree with your impression about FOA's disappointment, although it's a dilemma we can't (couldn't?) do much about. He WAS excited about things developing, and he was writing more, sticking his neck out in ways he hadn't, as it might have seemed to him that time was shorter.

Discussing his posts, we might have tried to do more. But I had the feeling we had most of our questions out -- I had my hands full just keeping up with reading, and when he came back and posted frequently, he kept me busy doing just that. I couldn't really solidify my thoughts into a few questions that would not have seemed a bit transparent, as my attempt to put some discussion into play in response to him. I just wasn't up to the level of former times, I guess. (I also realize now, as another year stretches into the record books, that my timeframe was not his, -- but is becoming so -- his excitement makes things sound immediate, but his investment horizon is many, many years.)

It seemed that he repeated the basics, but told in different ways, with some new slants that might have illuminated the trends he saw. I have the feeling that, since he admits to not being a professional writer (who is?), he finds his ideas develop as he gets them out in words (me, too), and so it is NOT just repetition as he goes over the scenarios in his posts.

The freshness was there for me, and of course, for new readers. The man works hard; enjoys what he does; I just don't think he's gone. I'm sorry we couldn't cushion his feelings, but I think (and have experienced) that when you go so far out on a limb to share something with people, it's almost impossible for them to keep up with your enthusiasm and respond to you at your level. Most of the time you're just planting seeds...

FOA seems to know this, and goes through his own cycles, taking a break when he's overdone himself a bit. He is a man with a combination of youthful enthusiasm, and mature wisdom, who packs many layers of experience into his words. Not a perfect man, just a damn good teacher...

You know I think highly of Oro, and his generosity with his time and efforts toward us. It's been hard to respond at a level equal to HIS contributions.

I have seen both of their tempers flare, and I have seen them both be graceful afterward. I would like Oro to honor his own work with a modulation of his rhetoric, so that the environment here will be welcoming to all viewpoints. (Of course, as things develop in Europe, Oro and FOA will be commentators vital to our understanding, and I think this is what they WANT to be -- but it takes INFORMATION, properly DIGESTED by us, in TIME, before conclusions can be imposed upon the situation.)

With that framework, I think we'll be able to continue the amazing (no, maybe miraculous?) run of great writing and reading that this bunch of "amateur" economists has somehow conjured up within these castle walls...

My little girl yelled out yesterday morning after an exhilarating swimming class, "I LOVE learning!" Amen.

SpartacusThe Euro#6670212/10/01; 01:41:19

LONDON, Dec 7 (Reuters) - French Finance Minister Laurent Fabius said on Friday British membership of the euro zone could help its manufacturing and financial industries, and could spark pro-market changes in policy across the Channel.

"I would like to send this message of sincere friendship and goodwill to our British friends: join us," he told a conference in London.

The Invisible HandMessage of sincere friendship and goodwill from Britain to Fabius#6670312/10/01; 01:59:50,11306,616229,00.html

Nearly one in three leading British retailers will accept the euro in their stores from January 1 despite having no obligation to do so, a survey by the Guardian has revealed.

Simon Buckby, campaign director of Britain in Europe, welcomed evidence of early adoption of the euro.
"Those that are prepared will grab a competitive advantage over those that are not.
"The anti-Europeans might try to keep Britain out of the euro, but they cannot keep the euro out of Britain."
The No Campaign, formerly Business for Sterling, dismissed the suggestion that limited acceptance of the euro indicated British business was taking a pragmatic approach.
"Given that most of the individual shops that will actually take the euro already accept foreign currency, this really sounds like a non-story," said a spokesman.

Why should a currency's use be approved by the government of the place where it is being used?

BelgianGold / Silver debate.#6670412/10/01; 02:02:31

Not business-profits or labor-revenues, are *making* the moves on Gold or silver. Retail-Investors (individuals) have a very little impact on substantial price-moves for the precious moneys. It is clear (to me) that the masses can't be mobilized to impact / change, a given trend.
Trends are changed by the *Holders* of the underlying.
Retail investors ( hold a small proportion of the aboveground refined Gold. The bulk of refined Gold is in the hands of Gold-Giants (50.000 tonnes-?) and officials (30/32.000 tonnes). India's citizens are estimated to hold 10.000 tonnes. I have no idea who is holding these kind of proportions on investment-silver against total aboveground silver (not for consumption) ?

Extremely little or nothing is known about the private Gold-Holders. Not a single statistic on the concentrations (retail-Giant) of Investment Gold (Gold-Holdings). A 50.000 tonnes out of the 140.000 tonnes are not traceble. It must be that 1/3 th that is deciding on when and how they want to see their stashes be valued. Is this 1/3 part responsible for the bulk of paper trading or are they just watching it happen with minimal interference or participation ?

Gold Holders are not just holding Gold but also dollar-confetti from accumulated profits. Is it the exchange of the confetti for Gold, to add to the already existing holdings, that decides on the (POG) move ? Or is it the non Gold-holders who shift part of their paper moving oceans into temporary Gold-refuge, without having the intention of holding it ?

I have never seen this explained by anyone. When serious investors want to build a substantial participation in a listed company, one of their first questions is always : who else is holding this stock ? Goldinvestors can only guess into the complete dark.

The point I want to bring forward here is that the holders of Gold (or silver) are the most reliable advocates for what they are holding, when they are responsible for a trend or trendchange. Why is it that "they" (the media) let us know who is (supposedly) holding silver (the Buffets), without doing the same for Gold (no princes or sultans) ?
Is this an invitation for silver and a warning for Gold ?
POG versus POS seem to contradict this strongly (cfr. Netking's 600 yrs chart Gold/silver).

A strong re-valuation of Gold will favor the existing 50.000 tonnes of Investment Gold Holdings against the amount of Gold used for jewelry. High priced rifined Gold will dwarf the yearly mined new additions and the Physical trade of aboveground Gold will increase between different Holders. Higher silver prices will lead to faster profit taking and action from silver-consumers. Once Gold-Valuation takes off (into the thousands), silver will not be supported to join mega-valuation, due to lack of sufficient permanent holders (holdings).

Dramatic underpricing of silver today can lead to a substantial price explosion...but Gold will go higher and silver-holders will not be able to catch on Gold on its way up. That's how I see it and decided not to bet on the temporary silver bonanza and being left out on Gold's gigantic materializing valuation.

The Invisible HandIt's the speculators who have saved the SA rand from collapse#6670512/10/01; 02:08:08

A rand in the hand is worth . . . very little

CONTAGION from Argentina's financial crisis has hit South Africa, where the ruling class is powerless in the face of the continued decline in the value of the rand.

On October 13 the South African Reserve Bank said it would enforce the rule that holders of rand must have _an underlying asset in South Africa_ (emphasis mine). It was meant to scare off speculators, leaving the market open to genuine investors interested in South Africa. However, it reduced liquidity in the currency, making it prone to violent swings.

Why is Cavallo then attacking the speculators?
BTW, what is the underlying asset of the rand and the peso?

CanuckEuro Countdown#6670612/10/01; 04:12:39

22 days

US$/Euro 0.889 -0.001

Gold 273.55 -1.00

auspec@ORO#6670712/10/01; 05:17:19

ORO (12/9/01 66651) ORO, I have read your recent posts on silver with interest but have not been able to reply here from cyber space due to some technical difficulties, but I have been pondering things (smile).

I cannot find fault in the reasoning of your thoughts. You rightly draw the conclusion that "silver has preceded gold in monetary uses historically, and has outperformed gold when the small buyer increased relative income to the high and mighty".

When I think of silver ORO I think of the word "volatility". It's a little like rocket fuel or nitro, powerful but can be somewhat unstable, or dangerous, prone to explode (in price) and to move to extremes at times. The Ag market has moved quickly (and in greater % terms than Au) when it has moved in the past, like the charts of the price of sugar for example. Silver I believe will go up sooner, faster and further than gold in % terms and may be the "fire starter" for gold. The problem is, you can't discuss silver as being a nation's wealth, there's NO national pot, and it's at a valuation of 1/60th+ of gold. (I'm getting some more physical this week but from another country, through necessity). Silver is found in the ground at a 6:1 over gold, or up to 10:1 in history. It's historical pricing ratio of POG over POS has been at an unmanipulated level of 16:1. In historical terms traders have viewed a POG at greater then 27:1 over the POS as an indication that silver is far too cheap and would buy, we could now therefore double the POS to gain some sort of equitable parity and that's even before we start on the future pricing mechanisim (smile).

Most of the gold mined over the last 5,000 years is still here (in one form or another), much/most of the silver mined over the last 5,000 years is gone. The USA strategic stores are gone, the mint is all but out and we have a derivative situation that is "ugly". The COMEX silver short alone (futures and call options) position has been well over 131,000 contracts in times past or well over 600 million (and that's not even counting OTC, and leasing/forward selling) ounces of silver. Since world mining production is under 600 million, and because no one can verify more than 150 million ounces of silver bullion, the COMEX silver short position is greater than either world production, or world verified inventories. Only in COMEX silver, is the listed short position larger than all the silver mined in the world for a whole year, and also larger than all known world inventories. Ask yourself a question - how is it possible that there can there be a bigger short position of anything real? And, if you could imagine a short position bigger than what existed in the real world - what do you think the effect of establishing that short position on the price would be?

When we see the "paper ropes" that have held silver burn, we may see a market like react like no other has or will in a long time.
- Netking

P.S. I'm trusting that there's no problema w me being a messenger boy. auspec

Black BladeEuropean Markets in the Red#6670812/10/01; 06:06:35

European markets turnes down overnight and the US market futures suggest a lower opening on Wall Street.
Black BladePalladium holds firm in Europe, gold overshadowed#6670912/10/01; 06:16:53


LONDON, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Palladium prices held firm for the sixth consecutive day on Monday, as jitters over the reliability of Russian shipments continued to cast a shadow over the market, traders said. Gold prices again looked overshadowed by movements in the silver market where tighter forwards continued to give the metal a solid base. Palladium prices managed to comfortably hold last week's gains, as worries over the supply from number one platinum group metals (PGM) producer Russia continued to plague the market.

Black Blade: Since the Russian stockpiles are depleted and are working off of current by-product nickel production, Russian PGM supplies will continue to be tight. Russia produces about 60% of the World's palladium. Silver lease rates are in backwardation suggesting a tightness in supply. Meanwhile reports are that AngloGold is "Beaten" in it's takeover bid for Normandy. The financial community declares Newmont the winner. However, if AngloGold is really "Beaten" they will be on the prowl for other targets very soon. They have made overtures toward Goldfields in the past. "Interesting Times"

Black BladeNewmont disowns hedging as Normandy bid upped#6671012/10/01; 06:21:57


SYDNEY, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Newmont Mining Corp, which on Monday lifted its bid for Australia's Normandy Mining Ltd (Australia:NDY.AX) by A$900 million, is betting that gold prices are poised to rise after years in the doldrums.

``We think there is a substantial movement in the gold price coming,'' Newmont chief executive officer Wayne Murdy said.

Black Blade: The last statement says it all. That's why AU and ABX are so desperate to keep the POG in the cellar.

HenriMythical#6671112/10/01; 07:49:16

Thank you for your kind mention of my "clinks" although I am but the only one remaining who announces them...a carry-over from an earlier "Call to arms" by a visiting knight that we band together and buy physical announcing our purchases in this noble fortress.

Thank you also for responding to the venerable Mr. Gresham in my absence. I believe the Philharmonic is denominated in schillings as are the other coins produced at the Austrian of my favorites is the series celebrating 2000 years since the birth of Jesus. I also agree as to to beauty of the brittania and have added one to my collection. This too is not a "Euro" denominated instrument. I do not know that any gold coins denominated in euro's have been released.

A belated and hearty welcome to this forum. I can tell by your mention of my "clinking that you must have been long lurking as I haven't clinked in a coon's age.

HenriBlack Blade ...Browning#6671212/10/01; 07:59:08

I too am fond of the Browning and have several in my 10 ga. though! A lot of mine are of the A-5 design beginning with an FN prototype 16 ga. including the later "Sweet Sixteen" and a number of twelve ga.

I have a Grade II BAR in 30 .06 (semi-auto) but the state of PA does not allow its use in the pursuit of large game.

My favorite for quail, ruffled grouse and pheasant though is my grade I over/under 20 ga. Bears a 4 digit serial # as well.

I suppose the 10 ga. has no trouble at all reaching out to those high flying ducks in your area, eh?

HenriBelgian on 66697#6671312/10/01; 08:06:24

Good Afternoon kind sir. I think the rise in the long bond IR's are the beginning of the fall of the other shoe. Here we witness the answer of the "Market" to Fed rate manipulations. One would have thought that the discontinuance of the issuance of the long bond would have kept them trading at a premium a while longer. The market is beginning to speak here. The drop in prices paid for LB is an indication of a large # coming to market either for the liquidation of troubled positions domestically or the liquidation of foreign positions with insight into the future direction of global financial disseminations.

I say let the market do its work.

As you mention, lower rates indicate stregnth...higher rates...?

EconoclastBlanchard Post Card#6671412/10/01; 10:00:25

I too have received this mailer. I left it on my desk for days just so I could ponder its meaning.
I have drawn my conclusions about the motivations. They seem to be trying to encourage anyone on their mailing list to sell gold bullion (or perhaps trade for numismatic gold). Now, this for-profit, division of G.E., are they really going to send out a mailer out of altruistic motives? Are they really trying to "help" everyone on their mailing list?
If they "want" you to sell, you must flip that around. THEY WANT TO BUY. They are attempting to wrest all the gold bullion they can out of anybody that's ever had contact with them. They'll gladly trade you into numismatic and make some profit on taking your 2-3 ounces and giving you one in return. And after their campaign is completed, they will have a large store of bullion in the vault. They know what's coming. So do I though. And that's why I say, "shame on them" for using Jim Blanchards name as they attempt to dig for profits in gold this way.

Gandalf the WhiteOOPS !! Sorry Sir Henri #6671512/10/01; 10:16:57

Henri (12/10/01; 07:49:16MT - msg#: 66711)
Thank you for your kind mention of my "clinks" although I am but the only one remaining who announces them...a carry-over from an earlier "Call to arms" by a visiting knight that we band together and buy physical announcing our purchases in this noble fortress.
The Hobbits have been very negligent in mentioning of the "clinks" and wish to catch up. By the way, many EU countries have issued GOLDEN Euro "Medallic Issues" since the mid 1990's for collectors. GOLDEN Dreams will come true.

White HillsEconoclast#6671612/10/01; 11:22:18

Thanks for the post on Blanchard. Makes sense to me and I agree shame on them. There are many reasons to buy gold and as I see it only one reason not to ! THEY DON'T WANT YOU TO! All the more reason to call MK and buy more. White Hills
Carl HSilver Calculation#6671712/10/01; 12:53:47

In recent months the fact that mining of base metals is being curtailed has been billed as bullish for silver. I was wondering about how significant this could actually be. Here is an interesting little calculation that I came up with:

Per the World Silver Survey 2000 (Numbers are for 1999):

Total Silver Supply: 888.2 MOz
Total Mine Production: 546.8 MOz
Primary Silver Mines: 125.8 MOz (Calculated from provided percentages.)
Lead Zinc By-product: 218.7 MOz (Calculated from provided percentages.)
Copper Gold & Other: 202.3 MOz (Calculated from provided percentages.)

According to an article posted at, Copper production has been curtailed by 840,000tons in 2002. World copper production was estimated at 13,700,000 tons in 2001. If we assume that the silver production from the copper mines is perfectly correlated with the copper production, then we can calculate that the reduction in copper production will reduce silver production by AT MOST:

202.3 MOz * 840,000 tons / 13,700,000 tons = 12.4 MOz

I say at most because all of the "Copper Gold & Other" category was attributed to Copper in this calculation.

12.4MOz is equal to about 1.4% of world supply.

I would like to do a similar calculation for lead and zinc, but I can't find cutback numbers.

site stewardThe latest Nobel Laureate speaks his mind on the economy#6671812/10/01; 13:56:49

Joseph Stiglitz touches on many issues. It's worth your time to read this one because you really need to know which way the financial winds of thought are blowing.


megatronCarlH#6671912/10/01; 14:34:08

I would be very interested in seeing the numbers for those other base metals as well. There is also the closing of primary gold and silver mines to contend with. Is it those numbers sinking that caused a .20 cent rise in the last week
or is it the Buffet rumour, or an enron blowup sideshow. Futures traders are speculating about all these things and seem to be very positive in sentiment, something I havn't seen in a long time. I doubt there will ever be clarity in these markets but eventually supply demand has to rule the day. Someone's rocket has got to run out of fuel.

da2gWired Magazine #6672012/10/01; 14:52:38

I just received the January issue of Wired Magazine. On the cover is the following: "E-GOLD AND ISLAM: INSIDE THE PLOT TO OVERTHROW THE DOLLAR".

I'm just about to start it now. Has anyone else read this?

Old YellerThe latest from Reg Howe on derivatives#6672112/10/01; 15:15:33

It would appear JPM/C is getting some help from it's friends in high places.

Mr. Gresham,good post on the FOA/ORO rift,well said,couldn't agree more with your sentiments.ORO has,on numerous occasions,expressed strong feelings on the true motives of the ECB,the barb of
the post that raised some ire would seem to reflect more on them than FOA.

Leighda2g#6672212/10/01; 15:17:58

We don't get that magazine around these parts (that I know of). So you'll HAVE to share the information with us RIGHT AWAY!!! Thanks, da2g! Can't wait!
site stewardJim Puplava's latest Storm Watch Update: Déjà vu ~ Haven't we been this way before?#6672312/10/01; 16:00:39

"At the moment the Fed's money machine is still feeding the financial system and keeping alive three bubbles: the stock market, real estate, and the dollar. .... It appears that the American economy is requiring even greater doses of credit to keep it afloat. The Fed is only too eager to oblige. There is, however, a point of no return... a point when debt burdens become too large, a point when creditors are no longer willing to lend, a point when borrowers can no longer make their payments, and a point when bankruptcy and default become the only option and the only way out. It is a time when the bubble can no longer be inflated. The hour arrives when policymakers run out of options, when the consequences of their actions must be faced. It is a time when the strength of the foundational stone is tested and we will learn whether the artifices of modern finance will hold. That time is approaching and it cannot be avoided. ....we still have three partially deflated bubbles that authorities are making every effort to reinflate."

(click URL for full commentary)

Buena Febubbles#6672412/10/01; 16:10:46

site steward, you forgot the bubble closest to every banker's/politician's heart ......... BONDS. After executing a beatiful double top (3 years apart), pop went to bull and the bear is the meanest looking, blood drolling grizz I've ever seen.

Before they lose control of gold they will lose control/influence over bonds, then the $, then finally gold!

TG, stay well (sir D.), camp fire tales should be juicy soon.

skiEntering the silver fray ....#6672512/10/01; 17:17:04

With great interest, I have been following the recent gold vs silver debate on this forum.

In my humble opinion, I think I see TWO fundamental errors that the "friends of gold" are making.

I have observed that those opposed to silver (and more friendly to gold) have primarily used PAST HISTORY as their central argument. Is this a valid consideration? In other words, is it financially prudent to predict future silver price action based on how silver has performed in the past?

Some time ago, I penned this theory ....

"Ski's perspective: The art of successful investing is similar to looking into a kaleidoscope. At any given moment, various economic events and forces combine to form a picture ... a picture that accurately reflects that particular moment in time .... this moment in time is reflected in the 'market price' for that investment at that moment. Thus, the market price is always 'right'. However, just as you can never exactly duplicate a particular view in your kaleidoscope, the market NEVER perfectly repeats itself either. Therefore, successful investing requires not only a study of HISTORY but that the individual constantly monitor and weigh the CURRENT economic events and forces. In this endeavor, beware of 'history repeats itself' talk. It repeats itself but never perfectly."

In my view, we are presently seeing several MEGA FORCES in todays silver market that have never before occured in history. To even hope to have a ballpark idea of what the POS might do, these forces must be factored in with the historical data.

I recently heard James Dines say that all of his famous "Dinesisms" were developed are a result of the study of HIS OWN ERRORS IN INVESTING. I have likewise learned from my own errors ... and the errors of others.

One error that I see repeated over and over again is that everday investors (amateurs) do not rely on the advice of PROVEN market investment professionals. .... Dines, Casey, Day, Schulz, Prechter, Templeton, Aden & Buffet etc. .... On this forum, any Joe Schmoe can put in his two cents (and that's fine), but the opinions of a proven professionals should weigh in with far more force than our friend Joe.

... And what do these heavyweight professionals say? Silver will shine brighter than gold ....

da2ge-gold and Islam#6672612/10/01; 17:17:17


Wired magazine is devoted to issues of the digital age. It is a monthly publication and can usually be found at newsstands and bookstores.

My take on the article is that it is farsighted and somewhat bullish on the precious metals, although it does allude to the electronic version being beloved by "gun freaks, Sufi anarchists, and Ponzi schemers". It refers to the international gold standard as "one of the technical wonders of the late-Victorian era", and suggests that today, after a period of hot and cold wars, a new Gilded age of economic interdependence has arisen. Today's universal money, the US dollar, "introduces distorting influences of US monetary policy on non-US markets".

The author continues: "Invulnerable to government manipulation and subject to the kinds of market forces only a worldwide, 24/7, open-ended network can bring to bear, e-gold promises not simply better money but the best: a money supply kept so straight and narrow that it has room for neither bubbles nor crashes. And "this", as Jackson (e-gold founder) is fond of claiming, "fixes something that's been screwed up since before the pharaohs." After millennia in which the boom and bust of the business cycle has washed ceaselessly over human affairs- playing havoc with the lives of rich and poor… Some of Jackson's closest business colleagues, after all, like to think e-gold might actually bring capitalism to its knees."

The author mentions James Turk's Goldmoney as e-gold's primary competitor. The article then goes on to describe the Islamic prohibition of usury, and highlights Umar Vadillo, president of e-dinar. "Look, we are against terrorism more than Bush is. You want to be radical? You don't need to blow up the bank, just burn your bank account. And for that you are going to need an alternative-e-dinar."

This is likely a very poor substitute for reading the entire article, however I hope it is helpful. I would be most interested in the opinion of anyone else who might have read it. In my opinion, there is nothing superior to gold in one's own possession, however this offers food for thought in using gold directly in trade, as opposed to purely the wealth asset that FOA foresees. Could such a scheme give fiat a run for its money?

GalearisThat silver vs gold thing...#6672712/10/01; 17:35:10

An apples vs oranges question....maybe

But nobody (really) knows for sure which will do better (or worse) as both have become more or less political precious metals and are watched as the visible canary to health in the fiscal community. My brother and I discussed this at some length this weekend and on Sunday he sent me an email to paraphrase his thoughts on the matter of silver. The fundamentals in the end will win out, methings:

This market could blow this time. LRs are in backwardation, at 5% for one month and about 3% for one year. The problem the commercials have this time is how do you lease
and dump to contain spot if spot is already so cheap mines are shutting down. The Buffet
spike in LRs had one month go to 70%. We have a long way to go to get this tight, but
when the world runs out of surface stockpiles of silver, it also runs out of feasible stocks
too, and that should mean that LRs will really blow up just before spot POS finally blows.
So watch the LRs (this graph is about one week behind the times), because when the
supply is critical, people will refuse to lease, and that will drive LRs as speculators MUST
roll over their lease contracts, or default. My projections indicate zero surface silver stocks sometime after july 2002. With one billion ounces in the lease overhang, these
guys need 50 million ounces per year (at 5% LRs) just to keep their positions afloat.
Even at 1% rates, these guys need 10 million ounces per year. The monthly supply deficit
is 10 million ounces. There are 34 million eligible ounces in COMEX, central bank of
India has another 32 million, and China has about 30 million ounces. So the world has
about 10 months stocks, and those stocks are going to be used up even faster with high
lease rates. Remember, lease interest is payable in metal, not paper. I don't think the
central bank of China will dump its last stocks of silver for $4.25 per ounce. Silver has
been money in China for a lot longer than in the west. The central bank of India is thought
to be on the verge of deacqusition but only into the Indian internal market. I think the game here is to soak up rupees, rather than have rupees dumped to buy silver in USDs. This strategy makes sense if the Indian government smells a spike in POS, and is afraid that
it's citizens will dump rupees to buy USDs in order to import silver during a spike. (Buying
silver is actually shorting your own currency and supporting the USD in the crazy world of
fiat money.)

Of course lease rates have subsided since the time of this email.

The only thing I am relatively sure about is that BOTH gold and silver will perform their traditional functions in the years ahead.

(It is nice to back. My 'puter has been in the hospital with a viris. I feel soooooo violated!!)

Best regards,


darkhorsethis Nobel Laureate guy...#6672812/10/01; 17:41:20

I know, I know, he's a Nobel prize winner and I'm a Joe Sixpack, but after reading the article, did anybody else get the mental image of this guy on the knee of one of the CNBC-types, like a wooden dummy in a Vaudeville act? After all, don't his answers sound familiar?
Black BladeDelphi Automotive to Cut More Jobs#6672912/10/01; 18:19:12


Leading Automotive Supplier to Cut 1,400 More Jobs Because of Expected Downturn in Auto Sales.

Black Blade: More "Bones" driven to the "Bone Pile." Tomorrow the FED is expected to Panic and cut rates for a record 11th time. This is not a sign of a healthy economy. Also this Holiday season is turning out to be quite dismal for the retail sector as few people are confident enough to be "Patriotic" and spend with abandon.

Henri - I originally got the 10 gauge to bring down high-flying Canadian honkers, but I wanted to try it out. Anyway, duck and goose season runs concurrently. I usually use (and abuse) my old Remmington 12 gauge. My first shotgun was a 16 gauge dbl barrel that my old granddad gave me when I was 7 years old. Not a common gauge anymore. Cheers!

Black BladeAllegheny Tech to close Pa. plant, cut jobs#6673012/10/01; 18:28:14


PITTSBURGH, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Steelmaker Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE:ATI) said Monday it would permanently close its Houston, Pennsylvania, stainless steel melt shop and cut up to 520 jobs, or roughly 5 percent of its work force, by year-end to cut costs amid intense competition.

Black Blade: More nonessential "Bones" tossed aside as the Recession deepens. If possible get out of debt, get basics on hand as you would for an extended period of unemployment, get enough cash for several months expenses, and get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance. I suspect that the "Bone Pile" will grow a lot more as this recession deepens further. Corporate profits are simply not materializing.

uponroofJapan's day of reckoning draws near#6673112/10/01; 18:37:26

While we've been watching Enron and Argentina a back burner has begun to boil over.

The IMF begins assessment of Japan's finances this week. It will not be pretty. Expect a lot of shock value quotes like "800 billion in bad loans outstanding" or "6 times worse than the US savings and loans scandel". With this kind of reckoning at hand there's likely to be mucho global fallout.

Surprise!......there's an American contigent of politicians and private sector 'advisors' at this very moment, on the ground in Japan, pushing to speed up rapid purchases and equally rapid sales. of Japan's bad loans. All the likely suspects are there, MSDW, GS, Merrill Lynch and a few of Bush's men.

Japan's Parliment has fast tracked a bad loan agency to help clean up the books. The 'Resolution and Collection Corporation', will be allowed to buy bad loans at market value, with the goal of disposing of the loans within three years. The Americans, sweating out the 'synergy' of the 1 and 2 economies in the world are frantic for more action in quicker measures. Japan has hired 30 loan resolvers, the Americans want another 1000 immediately (hee hee hee).

There is a great deal of public outrage against banks and bureacrats in Japan. Nationalizing bad loans is a political nightmare. Like American corporate welfare, not popular at all with the voters. The new PM and his staff have come out publicly agaist any more bank bailouts..... without which a banking meltdown is almost inevitable.

Enter the new and improved bad loan agency as a typical political tightrope compromise. Japan seems to be trying a 3-5 year plan to mitigate bad loan recognition out until a friendlier environment is (hopefully) in place.

But this buyout program is on a limited budget of 8+- billion. Estimates range to over 100 times that in actual real world bad loans.

This all started when Japan passed laws to end bogus reporting of bad loans. An honorable effort whose time had come given the moral hazzards in accounting laws which got them into this mess in the first place Sound familiar? (Enron).

Bankrupcies are about to be called out as new mark to market reporting on old loans begins. Japan, tough little folks that they are, are from the culture of falling on swords in honor. Americans, on the other hand are sweating out bottom line values, and encouraging irresponsible sweeping of 'stinky sushi' under the rug.

This should be one Hell of a show coming up as all the bad news out of Japan for the past many years is finally counted, reckoned with, and overwhelms those over the 8+- cap.

R PowellMarket reacting to real news?#6673212/10/01; 18:37:38

Lance Lewis has an interesting notion that "Bad News Starting To Matter Again" may be moving the equities markets. I've been totally amazed at the recent rally, sometimes seemingly gaining strength with each announcement of ugly, "grim" news. Irrational, momentum, patriotic, insane bear market bounce or the great bubble re-inflated, or Gabby Abbey's prophecy coming true but until last Friday it looked unstoppable. Lewis wonders if the market may now be responding to the news which has been nothing but bad.
Perhaps and tomorrow is FOMC day. What do stocks have to do with precious metals? I believe Alan G has been doing everything within his power to stimulate the economy but instead got one huge dead cat bear bounce which might be ending. Overvalued stocks falling may take the dollar down as well. One more rate cut along with stocks falling may be more than the dollar can withstand?? Withdrawal of foreign investment? Return of bigfloat? Inflation and four digit POG. Seems simple enough, no?
Lance Lewis posts a daily report at the Prudentbear site.

R PowellGood article#6673312/10/01; 19:15:18

Good article from "Futures" magazine. Taken from a post next door,

Silver: Tarnished no more
(MotherGoose) Dec 10, 20:24

Silver: Tarnished no more

Some still fail to jump on silver's bullish bandwagon, citing the industry's traditional tendency to understate existing supplies, but other issues also are driving silver prices. Here are the relevant factors behind a possible surge in the other precious metal.

slingshotTis the Season.#6673412/10/01; 19:46:26

Everybody has their Christmas Shopping done right? Well almost. I have ventured to the malls a couple of times and some of the major stores. The stores do not have the people in them like last year. It is almost like shopping early.
Lots of window shoppers and they are not carrying as many bags as they walk the malls either. Looks like some good buys for the last minute shopper this year.

This Nobel Laureate dude. The first paragraph says it all.

Black Blades Bone Pile Report And R Powell's Real News post.
By now everyone knows someone who is out of work and the news is starting to sink in.

Feds cut interest rate and the push on the string continues.

Which forum said it first? Right here!

So what has that have to do with Gold? Maybe nothing, Maybe

A Canadian MUSINGS ON A TUESDAY NIGHT#6673512/10/01; 19:51:28

Just ordered my first bag of silver from regular gold
supplier. He enquired as to "What the hell was I going to
do with it?" I told him that I was expecting to soon be trading with Trolls under bridges. After a good laugh he paused and soberly indicated that I may not be far from the truth. (not much confidence in my neck of the woods.)

PizzR Powell What do stocks have to do with PMs#6673612/10/01; 20:04:30

I believe its not direct, but indirect.

The US dollar is a reserve currency. I believe based upon everything I've seen posted and my own basic kowledge of finance, the US is, or will be forced to devalue the dollar.

ORO, Belgian, or anyone. Here's the question. How do you devalue a world reserve currency? I don't think its ever been done, but it can't be done without affecting the price of gold - UP.

Any devaluation, or drop in the dollar - however you'd like to explain it - will obviously send the $ price of gold skyward. Now, since gold is officially just a commodity, and legal for any and all to own, what do you think is going to happen to all the $ that have or will come out of the SM and bond market. (Indirect link).

With Europe, Russia, and China all giving indications or at least lip service that they will at least have a loose tie to gold, the bubble that will hit gold and PM stocks would make the tech bubble look like a fire cracker vs a Hydrogen bomb. ($20,000 per oz + and 5 figure PM stock prices)

Ok, now someone says "Wait a minute. So what? The US Treasury holds more gold than anyone. What's the problem?"

Bottom line - Do we have the gold (or title to it)? If we do, then the only problem would be that the politicians are doing everything they can,(i.e. manipulation, putting banks and brokerages in jeopardy, etc.) just to stay on fiat so they can keep spending. Or its a much, much bigger game and THEY (whom ever they are)CAN'T LET THE MARKETS CRASH, DEVALUE, OR ANYTHING ELSE THAT PRUDENCE SAYS THEY SHOULD DO BECAUSE JUST MAYBE THE US DOESN'T OWN AS MUCH GOLD AS EVERYONE THINKS.

Comments anyone?


slingshotA Canadian#6673712/10/01; 20:09:37

Is Montreal somewhere near Guam? Tuesday night?

sector@uponroof The Japanese Corporate Default Risk...A Measuring Tool#6673812/10/01; 20:27:40

Moody's to launch RiskCalc for Japanese firms

10 December - The risk management unit of international rating agency Moody's has completed the development of its RiskCalc model for estimating probability of default for Japanese private companies.
Moody's RiskCalc Japan, to be released in January 2002, is a model for estimating the probability of default on obligations of non-financial Japanese private companies.

The Japanese service is an addition to the Moody's RiskCalc network of quantitative credit risk models for public and private firms. The agency claims this is an important step in its development of a globally consistent network of locally validated risk assessment models. The new model is also intended to be compliant with the principles outlined in the new capital Accord for internationally active banks, dubbed Basel II.

The model was developed by Moody's Risk Management Services (MRMS), using loan default and financial data from Japanese markets to provide a credit risk assessment that banks, asset managers, and other financial institutions will be able to use in loan underwriting and other obligor credit evaluations.

"The model is expected to stimulate growth in the new collateralized loan obligation market of private firm loans," said Naoki Yamauchi, managing director of structured finance, Moody's Japan. He added that the agency is establishing methods to use Moody's RiskCalc in its rating process in order to benefit the loan market for private Japanese firms.
Paul Lyon

What the Master of the Universe cannot do is hold back a default as we have just seen in Enron. Finova, Xerox, Motorola, Amazon, LTV, Tyco and numerous others are right behind. The Fed can cut to zero an not stop the pending financial deaths of these firms. Japan now faces the disclosure and subsequent embarrassment of their bad loans and insolvent firms.

In the wake of 21,000 job losses at Enron with the loss of 401K equity, Mr. Greenspan now appears before Congress to offer more of the same policies that led to it's demise. The previous Administration lectured Japan. Not any more.

The Master has counseled no regulation of derivatives...lectured that they mitigate risk. The reality of wrecked trading at LTCM and Enron are not in agreement with that belief mechanism. Indeed, it appears that higher derivatives equal greater risk. During the heyday of LTCM the black box boys, the econophysicsts, some of whom are working as ranch hands today, boasted that their models were secure against a once in a thousand month statistical shock.

That boast was their downfall since they only looked backward. They ignored concurrent shock emergence. They were imagined no blind side. Today, there are unique financial events emerging. Events that have never occurred before...all at a time of great American financial weakness coupled with a teetering FOREX system which failed just 30 years ago. as a poster pointed out some days ago the 1971 gold standard departure was the greatest default in American and World history.

A similar event will happen again much sooner than the Fed imagines.

A Canadian@ slingshot#6673912/10/01; 20:34:04

Picky, picky. To an amateur astronomer(me) this is Tuesday night. (I wiggle better than Greenspan.)
sectorMore on Japan's "Worst Ever" Recession#6674012/10/01; 20:43:46

Japanese Recession
December 7, 2001
Japan Is in Recession Again, With U.S., as Germany Slips

By JAMES BROOKE of The New York Times

TOKYO, Friday, Dec. 7 — The economy of Japan, the world's second largest, officially entered a recession today as figures showed the gross domestic product contracting for a second consecutive quarter.

In the third quarter, which ended in September, the government said, the economy dropped 0.5 percent, or an annualized decline of 2.2 percent — worse than the most recent decline in the United States.

Darkening the nation's outlook, the government also sharply shifted downward the second-quarter drop to 1.2 percent, from 0.7 percent, making for an annualized rate of 4.8. It also said personal consumption in the third quarter fell 1.7 percent.

With the figures released today, the world's two largest economies — the United States and Japan — are in recession. And Germany, the third largest, is expected to follow.

The data follow a procession of statistics that point to a hard winter in Japan. In the first half of this year, the flow of foreign direct investment into Japan contracted by 19 percent and corporate earnings slid by a third. And the trade surplus is forecast to drop 40 percent this fiscal year, which ends in March.

"The current economic downturn could end up being Japan's worst ever," Mikihiro Matsuoka, an economist at Deutsche Securities in Tokyo, warned recently.

That assessment was echoed in New York by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, a private research group that studies 26 economic indicators for Japan, many dating back to the 1950's.

"They are set up to have their worst recession on record," Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the institute, said in an interview on Thursday. "This one will beat the mid-1970's recession, and that one was related to the oil shock."

Richard Katz, senior editor of The Oriental Economist newsletter, said here: "Japan never really recovered from the 1997-1998 recession. My fear is a constant economic corrosion."

Economic shrinkage or stagnation will bedevil Japan through early 2004, according to a forecast released this week by Japan's Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, a government group headed by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi.

Only four years ago, Japanese government bonds enjoyed the world's highest ratings. But in the last two weeks, the three major ratings agencies have downgraded Japan's government bonds to the lowest levels of the major industrialized countries.

Japan is largely immune to foreign investor nervousness about its bonds because it is a net creditor and because about 95 percent of the bonds are held by Japanese investors. But the downgradings expose a serious weakness of the Japanese economy.

In the 1990's, Japan's national debt more than doubled, but lowered interest rates have allowed debt service payments to hover around 10.4 trillion yen (now $8.5 billion) for the last 15 years. Today, however, tax receipts are shrinking, making borrowing increasingly costly.

Japanese government bond prices "are a ticking time bomb," David Roche, a London-based investment adviser, wrote recently, predicting that interest rates will rise and bond prices will fall, further eroding the weak assets of Japan's troubled banks.

If poor credit ratings cause interest rates to rise from their rock- bottom levels, Japan could start feeling the cost of a decade of heavy borrowing.

"If ratings go on skidding, it might trigger plunges in government bond prices, thus inducing a state of the economy similar to a depression," Hiroshi Okuda, chairman of the Japan Federation of Employers Associations, said on Wednesday.

slingshotA Canadian#6674112/10/01; 20:45:12

Had me thinking.I'm not the sharpest knife in the kitchen.

PizzA few after thoughts to my last post#6674212/10/01; 20:47:13

If my thinking is anywhere near on path, the FED will leave rates unchanged tomorrow.

This will send the SM down to retest lows (January), SHOULD put some support under the bond market in order to keep all the pending refi's alive, and buy all the good old boys a couple months so as to let the banks try to put Enron and Argentina back together.

Lease rates should start to drop, Gold should start to move slightly higher on subdued interest, but hold under 282 or so.

The world economy is starting to appear like a a crash victim with all four limbs hemorraging from arteries. The boys have tournequets (accountants can't spell - sorry) applied, but they have to loosen them occasionally so gangrene does not set in.

If the terrorists sneek in a cut to the throat - ALL bets are off.

Christian(No Subject)#6674312/10/01; 20:57:02

There is a 10% reserve requirements to create transaction deposits. In other words a $100 initial deposit can expand into $1000. Savings accounts and time deposits have no reserve requirements and therefore can expand without regard to reserve levels. For a bank to make loans it can buy those reserves (borrow) they need to meet loan demand from the money market at the fed at fed funds rate.----- Banks are using gold silver and other commodity metals and turn it into money by monetizing it and list it as a deposit. An oz of gold is the same as $273.00 deposit. ((This is not true at the central banks that make up the FED. The gold, silver or other metal commodity position represents their dollars overseas. As those dollars come home that particular central bank commodity short position will be reduced.))(( The gold and silver short position that everyone here claims exist only excist in paper form not in physical form. It only exists as long as those dollars float outside of our borders. The $'s comming from Russia reduced some central banks commodity short positions. It's a paper for paper exchange unless it don't come back. Russia did itself and us a favor.)) However Greenspan is doing everything possible in his power to increase the $ float in circulation in order to compete with the Euro. The Euro has taken considerable amount of what should of been $ debt. Alan Greenspan is using derivative leverage to the nth degree in his quest to increase the dollar debt float. It is not working. Japan did the same thing in its quest to increase the yen float. The Euro has a better chance then the dollar or the yen because it is taking on good debt in sound companies where the yen and the dollar are taking on bad debt in companies that have paper earnings but no real earnings. The Euro is buying what Buffet is buying. ---- Many small banks have found a way to use commodity metals as deposits by monetizing them. These deposits show up as book value. What is not listed on that so called book value is that the commodity metal is there for safe-keeping and belongs to someone else. Kind of what Enron did with its 401K plans with its employees. It was safe-keeping them in order to take out the value in them. Companies like individuals use debt to finance acquisitions. Companies use their stock float like people use their home as collateral. Then banks attach liens to the physical assets that stock float or home represents. First mortgage is preferred. The stock holders of the company like the home owner then are represented as 2nd mortgage. The owners of our-money are always thinking of the little man in how he can be screwed + destroyed so when his invesment goes sour they can buy the physical of his investment represents at liquidation price and sell it to the next fool at full price.
HenriWell doesn't that just cinch it#6674412/10/01; 21:05:57

Just like the gold cabal a day late and a dollar short for Henri's $272 bid.

Congratulations winner of the tiny Philharmonic

uponroofsector#6674512/10/01; 21:32:50

Looking into the Japanese economy is like viewing a life-time smoker at autopsy time, nothing but black in those lungs.

What a complete disaster.

Bank credit ratings of E and E-. GDP shrinking at annualized rate of 4.8%. Sovereign credit ratings the worst in the industrialized world. Trade surplus down 40%. Foreign investment down 19%. Any one of those numbers, alone, is heart stopping, but there's more. OECD pressure. Failure to meet international reserve requirements. Dangerous vulnerability to bank assets if interest rates rise, etc. Notice, no matter what the problem, right smack in the middle of it all, are the BANKS.

As for the 800 billion in bad loans....These are OLD bad loans. No hope, even remotely of recovering them. Most will be written off which will weaken the yen. Foreign investments (US treasuries) will be sold off.

Will the dollar smile? Will the stock market see it as bullish? Will gold get hit?

Incredible times.

WaveriderAnglogold Circular to Members#6674612/10/01; 22:08:51

Black Blade- you might get a kick out of this- as you said earlier the desperation level there has moved up a notch or two. In the mail today I received from Anglogold a Circular to Members regarding the revised terms of the acquisition by Anglogold in Normandy Mining and voting instructions. It's addressed to my dear deceased mother who must be turning in her grave at this very moment. She was in SA goldmines in the early 80's - guess she's still on the mailing list although I haven't received any correspondence from them for the last 10 or so years...that just about says it all!

The CoinGuyFlinging Some Bull(s)...Well a Cow at least... #6674712/11/01; 00:45:01

Shorting the market, tired of getting stomped on by the Bulls? This ought to help relieve the tension. Got it from the BearForum.

The CoinGuy

site stewardWith the arrival of January 1st, Chinese Banks Ready for Euro Business#6674812/11/01; 00:48:04

In this article, an official with China Construction Bank affirms, "The debut of the euro will not only be a big issue for European countries, but will also have a deep impact on global trade and economic development."
Solomon WeaverForbes Article on Gold Dec 10 , 2001#6674912/11/01; 01:02:16

Investment Guide: Hard Assets
Golden Oldie
Bernard Condon, Forbes Magazine, 12.10.01

Having called the top of the gold market 22 years ago, a goldbug thinks he has found the bottom.
In 1977 James Sinclair boldly predicted that gold would rise from $150 per troy ounce to $900.

Gold never reached that mark, but it came close on Jan. 21, 1980, peaking at $887.50. The next day, says Sinclair, he unloaded his entire gold position, personally netting $15 million. Pointing to the Federal Reserve's efforts to fight inflation, Sinclair then predicted at an annual gold conference that the metal would languish for the next 15 years. Which it did. On Friday, Jan. 20, 1995, it closed at $383.85.

So this is a guy to listen to. He's bullish again. Why? Because he believes, despite the whiff of deflation in the October producer price index, that the country is headed for mild inflation. He thinks the dollar is due for a fall. He also is moved by the fact that mining companies, which routinely sell unmined metal forward at fixed prices to protect themselves against further price drops, have recently pulled back from placing these hedges, a move that should prompt gold prices to rise. When and if they do, Sinclair expects a massive squeeze on gold speculators who have $36 billion in short positions. Sinclair figures the shorts will cover their positions soon after gold hits $305, a move that could force the price to $350 and maybe as high as $430.

Persuaded? You could go to the New York Mercantile Exchange to buy an option to purchase 100 ounces of gold in six months, with a strike price set at a slight premium to today's price. An option exercisable at $300 would cost you $9 an ounce. If gold hits $350 you pocket $4,100 in profits. Or you might consider the safer road and go to USAGold and buy the real thing....OK so this sentence was dropped in just to see if you were all awake...but the rest is the real McCoy.

Sinclair is not just buying futures and options. Since 1996 he has invested $11 million to develop 2,154 square miles of barren land in central Tanzania that he's convinced hold vast gold deposits. Drilling on the property is still in the early stages, but Barrick Gold is already pulling metal out of an adjacent site whose proven and probable reserves have nearly tripled in the past two and a half years to 10 million ounces.

It's a gamble not many investors would make, but then Sinclair has always stood apart from the crowd. On the walls of his office hang six photographs of Shri Sathya Sai Baba, a guru whom Sinclair visits in India several times a year. Sinclair's love of carrot juice recently turned into a 50-pound-a-week habit brought to a halt only when his doctor grew alarmed at the orange tint to his skin. A loner, Sinclair paid $3 million in 1983 to turn a 19th-century barn into a reception hall for his house but has held only three parties there since.

After his 1970s career as a goldbug, Sinclair retreated to his Connecticut estate, where he played with his helicopters, show ponies and collection of Ferraris. He didn't stay idle long. He built cable systems at Cross Country Cable, a company he started with two friends, then made millions selling some of them to John Malone's TCI.

"Jimmy is different," says his onetime cable partner Vincent Tese, the former New York banking commissioner and now Bear Stearns director. "But in the trading business people don't care if you're purple, just as long as you're making money."

In 1989 Sinclair got back into metals after buying a small stake in a Vancouver mining company called Sutton Resources. During a trip to Tanzania for the company that year to check out a potential nickel site, Sinclair became intrigued by a 55-square-mile patch of land called Bulyanhulu. It was studded with greenstones, volcanic rocks marked by long seams that are often rich in minerals. Some greenstone mines, such as those in Canada's Kirkland Lake Camp, have been yielding gold for a century, and at a relatively low cost of $200 per ounce.

Investment Guide: Hard Assets
Page 2 of 2 from Golden Oldie
Bernard Condon, Forbes Magazine, 12.10.01

"The opportunity stared at me like it did with cable and gold," he says. "The only way to make big money is to have the courage to put your eggs in one basket."

Sinclair helped Sutton buy rights to mine Bulyanhulu, then lobbied for it to do the same in adjacent lands. Sutton balked. It eventually sold Bulyanhulu to Barrick, and Sinclair decided to go it alone.

By the summer of 1999 Sinclair had invested $4 million in the lands near Bulyanhulu. He suddenly faced a sickening prospect. Gold had just hit a 21-year low of $246. Bears were predicting $150 soon, a price that could wipe out profits from even the most efficient of Tanzania's mines.

"I felt a pit in my stomach, like hunger," Sinclair recalls. "When I was a young trader I used to think I was invincible. Now I feel the risk."

Simple logic mitigated his fears. It costs most companies $250 (including back-office support) to extract an ounce of gold. With gold trading below cost, it made no sense for mining companies to hedge against further price reductions. Recognizing that such hedges meant that a major force pulling gold down would soon disappear, he reasoned that the bottom was near.

Over the next nine months Sinclair spent $1.5 million on tests measuring magnetic pull to help locate seams in his greenstone. Soon after the tests ended, in February 2000, news broke that some big mining companies had indeed stopped placing new hedges. Sinclair reached into his pocket for $5 million to buy more mining rights in surrounding lands. Barrick expects that the $199 an ounce it is paying to mine gold at Bulyanhulu will drop to $130 over the next three years.

Sinclair hopes to sell his operation to a big mining company soon. To do that he'll need to prove his gold can be as richly mined as it is in Bulyanhulu. And then pray that bullion doesn't plummet again.

It's worth noting that Sinclair's bullishness is catching on. One well-regarded bear, Andrew Smith of Mitsui & Co., surprised the markets in September by announcing that he expects the metal to go to $340.

. . . . . .

Too Bad that a mainstream article has to paint Sinclair as eccentric.....when his brains and guts made him rich....POS

site stewardIf you only read one article all day, make it this one#6675012/11/01; 01:25:48

HEADLINE: Huge forex reserves just another problem for Japan

TOKYO, Dec 11 (Reuters) - For most countries, it would be a measure of economic virility; but for Japan, holding the world's biggest pile of foreign currency reserves is becoming a major economic headache with risks that are growing by the month.

Far from good news, the steadily rising reserves not only serve little purpose but are actually adding to an already intolerably high debt load, economists and fund managers say.

Japan's foreign exchange reserves stood at $403.880 billion at end-November -- four times the level of seven years ago. By comparison, U.S. reserves stand at about $69.155 billion.

Because they are held predominantly in dollars, the reserves are vulnerable to a fall in the value of the dollar or of any narrowing in the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential.

"Japan's foreign currency reserves at this level do not appear to be sustainable. Japan has to think about ways to bring it down," said Sayuri Kawamura, senior economist at the Japan Research Institute (JRI) economics department.

If Japan does not find a way to reduce its official U.S. dollar exposure, only a small fall in the dollar's value against the yen would translate into massive losses.

"At least we should diversify the risk of holding the reserves almost all in the dollar," said Yoshiichi Taguchi, manager of global investment at Tokio Marine and Fire Insurance.

The problem is, the only way to reduce the dollar reserves, or to reposition the reserves away from the dollar, would be to sell off huge amounts of the U.S. currency -- a move that policymakers fear could strain relations with Washington.

(click URL for full article)

If this doesn't get you caught up and properly oriented with the financial ways of the world as we have tried to explain in these pages, then I don't know what will. Most importantly, it should suggest to you that a particular course of action (diversification) is appropriate for your portfolio of "personal reserves" at this time. An entity such as Japan (or the Eurosystem, as ANOTHER example) is somewhat paralyzed by its size relative to the marketplace, and must therefore delicately implement an "exit strategy" for maximum benefit and to preserve global economic stability to the maximum practicable extent.

However, this is a time when being a fleet-footed individual of small relative worth has its advantages. You can ACT NOW with all the grace of a bull in a china shop to buy gold with both fists (thus ridding yourself of excess dollars). The pipeline can as yet accommodate you, but you are wise not to delay your move unnecessarily, as others (with "hot money") may upon a time define a new dawn as you sleep.


CoBra(too)The Battle for Normandy#6675112/11/01; 02:04:25

Seems as NEM's Wayne Murdy and FN's Pierre Lassonde won't surrender NDY, "the price" to the bucaneers of AU.

Even if the price per reserve ounce seems high the battle between the unhedged pro gold producers against the (evil) hedgers takes on epic proportions.

Meanwhile not a single new reserve ounce will be added to the equation. Reserve replacement will become tomorrows urgency.

Interesting times,indeed!

CoBra(too)More on NDY Takeover#6675212/11/01; 03:11:16

Globe says Newmont battle for Normandy Mining nears end

Franco-Nevada Mining Corp Ltd FN
Shares issued 158,661,470 Dec 10 close $22.35
Tue 11 Dec 2001 In the News
See Normandy Mining Ltd (NDY) In the News
The Globe and Mail reports in its Tuesday, Dec. 11, edition that Newmont
Mining has raised its bid for Normandy Mining in what could be a knockout
blow for rival bidder AngloGold. The Globe's Allan Robinson writes that
Newmont's share-exchange offer of 0.0385 of a share for each share of
Normandy is unchanged, but it has added 28 cents in cash a share or
$635-million to the four cents it previously offered. The new bid, which is
conditional on acceptance by holders of 50.1 per cent of Normandy shares,
brings the offer for Normandy close to the upper range of analysts'
estimates of what the company is worth and has won the support of
Normandy's board of directors. Newmont's earlier cash offer was conditional
on holders of 90 per cent of Normandy's common shares tendering.
Strategically, Newmont has a key advantage over AngloGold. Franco-Nevada
Mining, which owns 19.9 per cent of Normandy, has agreed to pledge its
shares in Normandy to Newmont and, in turn, to be taken over by Newmont.
This arrangement effectively reduces Newmont's total cash outlay for
Normandy. Newmont said it hopes to complete its offer for Normandy by
mid-February, 2002.
(c) Copyright 2001 Canjex Publishing Ltd.

Bodes well for the unhedged - cb2

SpartacusAnother bubble#6675312/11/01; 04:19:40

"Another cut is expected Tuesday from the Fed, at its regular meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. But no one can point to any evidence that the economy, or consumers, will respond to this cut any differently from the others."

" Yet bank liquidity has to go somewhere, and if it doesn't go into consumer spending, and it doesn't go into capital investment, the only other place it can easily flow is back into stocks, especially when interest rates have now been driven so low that the inflation-adjusted return on them is functionally zero. "

Belgian@ Pizz # 66736#6675412/11/01; 04:30:46

Yes Sir, it is all about "confetti" ! Be it dollars,euros, shekels or rands. All these pieces of paper are not an expression of what they are representing. All fiat has engaged on battles of their own. And the competition of real goods and services is to be played with their papers, who claim to represent these goods and services. And this is the main falsification that is evolving to extremes.

Just think about that standard bottle of coca cola that has more than a thousand different paper (unfair) prices. US dollar-dominance is at the origin of these dramatic distortions.

Nobody wants to devalue deliberately the intrinsic value of its fiat, wich is claimed to represent the total of what their work is representing. It is Big Brother (US$) who imposes (by all means) your intrinsic worth.

There are so many places on the globe where identical products/services are produced. But all this work is so differently rewarded. It is the survival of the fittest currency that decides on your wealth. The dollar-imperium will stumble under its own weight. It is not going to devalue itself deliberately. It will take a challenger who dares to shout that the emporer has no clothes. The euro is a possible candidate as soon as it is assured of some allied forces (chineze/ME/Russia). Or if the dollar emperium is weakened by defection of an elite unit (japan). These (or other) fatal blows can strike the dollar overnight. It will, without any doubt, result in a massive price inflation expressed in (naked) dollars. Suddenly all the other producers of goods/services (non dollars), are going to claim a fair piece of wealth for what they do as good as the dollar pretends to do.

In Europ, we decided to abandon these unproductive-dishonest, currency wars. Slowly but surely, this euro-experiment and now reality will appeal as a model to the entire world. And yes, I do believe it is a more *just* model, though far from being perfect. Inspiring nevertheless.

This euro-model (its succes) will make people think more profoundly about dollar-dominance and its consequences for no dollar zones. Euro-succes is the dollar's nightmare, because its status as reserve will be challenged and must be shared with an equal. A very embarrasing thought.

Somwhere down the road, this dollar-dominance, will have to face a massive confrontation. It is during this period of transition that Gold will come into play. The west has neglected Gold's role on purpose. The east didn't.

All considerations are always directly or indirectly, coming back to what our TGs have been elaborating so intensively.

Last week a friend of mine had some Chineze business partners here and he discussed payments in euros. These Chineze stated firmly that at present they still have orders (!) to settle in dollars...but (!) they know that very soon, all settlements will be done in euros ! Affirmative and convincing declarations. 1,5 billion chineze are on the move. And they move very, very fast !

Yes I keep on listening to all euro-critics. I'm getting less impressed by their arguments, without becoming over-courageous. The euro, step by step by step...eroding the dollar...stripping the emporor. Site steward's Nobel price winner article wanted the japanese to print more money while they are drowning in US$ and massive savings !?
It is screaming for massive fiat devaluations and exhorbitant price inflations all over the world. I do feel comfortable with that yellow stuff in hand. Mister Gold (Sinclair) still has to go to Tanzania and dig for it it.
Or better...sell the the embedded gold to another for exchange in confetti. They will have to take the Tryponosoma (malaria) with it. Ugly little beast.

Sir Pizz, hopefully a satisfactory answer and thanks for having stimulated my thoughts again.

uponroofRandy......Japan#6675512/11/01; 05:46:13

OK, it is irrefutably bearish for the dollar. I see no way around the devaluation dominos about to begin. HOWEVER, we have said that before only to see the dollar soar above the crowd.

Yes I was being sarcastic when I asked if the dollar would 'smile' at the certain Japanese meltdown and resulting sale of foreign treasuries. But the sarcasm was based on the incredible resiliency to date.

The way this is evolving it looks like the euro debut and the yen (Japan) foreign assets sales will dovetail and perhaps even coincide. A double dose of poison for the dollar. No way it escapes this. BUT, does anybody out there want to short the dollar, put their money where their mouth is, and bet against the king? Hats off to you. I'll watch from my corner.

Black BladeJob market may be facing steep climb#6675612/11/01; 05:54:48


At the same time jobs are being slashed, hiring has dried up. The number of Americans who qualify as long-term unemployed, out of work for 27 weeks or more, has risen from 600,000 in March to 1.2 million in November. In October, the Conference Board's help-wanted index, a measure of help-wanted advertising in newspapers, dropped to its lowest level since 1964, the year the Beatles first came to America. Help!

Some of the recent bad news is the result of the Sept. 11 attacks, and the devastating impact the attacks had on the economy. But Stephen Roach insists there is something more at work here: payback for the years of excess. ''American companies binged on information technology spending, and they binged hiring white-collar workers,'' said Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley. In Roach's view, corporate executives, like investors, were convinced the hypergrowth of the late 1990s was here to stay, and they acted accordingly. Now that hard times have hit they are being forced to make some radical adjustments.

Retailers added 3 square feet of space for every man, woman, and child in the country during the decade, again, based on the expectation that the good times would continue. The retail adjustment will involve closing stores and firing workers, a process that could accelerate after Christmas.

The transition from prosperity to recession always entails painful cutbacks. But Economists suggest there are two reasons why the cuts this time may be especially sharp. The first is corporate profits. According to Chuck Hill, research director of First Call in Boston, the current downturn is shaping up to be one of the worst ever for profits.

Black Blade: Exactly the points I have been making with the "Bone Pile" tag line. The "Bone Pile" continues to grow. Look for the decline to accelerate after the holidays. If at all possible get out of debt, get some hard asset portfolio insurance (Gold and Silver is good), get enough cash on hand to meet expenses, get food stores and basic necessities on hand. Prepare as you would for an extended period of unemployment or natural disaster. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Even if all turns out well, at the very least you should sleep well at night.

Black BladeCNBC WILL OPEN SHOPS IN AIRPORTS #6675712/11/01; 06:03:51


December 11, 2001 -- It'll take more than cute dolls of CNBC stars Maria "Money Honey" Bartiromo and Joe "Big Kahuna" Kernen to boost the cable network's popularity. To help rebuild a broader audience reaching more business people, the cable channel is reaching out to capture business viewers where they spend a lot of time - in airports. CNBC has seen its audience shrink since Wall Street's wipeout soured most individual investors on stocks and investment tip shows.

The network didn't rule out selling squeezable celebrity dolls based on the show's popular personalities. "Joe Kernen would definitely be thrilled by a doll," a CNBC spokesman said of the morning business-show personality. It wasn't clear whether Bartiromo, Kernen or other personalities would waive their royalties for having their likenesses used on fuzzy dolls.

Black Blade: May I suggest CNBC celebrity "Voodoo Dolls" complete with pins?

Black BladeInternet Analyst Reportedly Under Investigation by N.Y.#6675812/11/01; 06:16:24

Probe: Henry Blodget is included in an inquiry into conflicts of interest, according to published reports.


Internet analyst Henry Blodget is reportedly among a number of analysts being investigated by the New York state attorney general's office over conflicts of interest they may have had while making stock recommendations.

Black Blade: The bubbles bursts, then the lawsuit, then he quietly slips out the back door with a "Bag O' Cash," and now the posse is on his trail. Expect to see other Pied Pipers fall in the cross-hairs. We may see Mary Meeker and Abby Jo Cohen become targets as part of the "fall out." These alleged "analysts" would paint a rosy picture of companies while their firms were doing business with these same companies that they recommended as investments. Conflict of interest? No doubt about it.

Black BladeKroger Income Up, 1500 Jobs to Be Cut#6675912/11/01; 06:29:25


CINCINNATI (Reuters) - Kroger Co., the largest U.S. grocer, on Tuesday reported that third-quarter earnings rose and said it would eliminate about 1,500 jobs as part of a cost-cutting plan.

Black Blade: Super market "Bones" off to the growing "Bone Pile."

Black Blade"Lord of the Rings" gives miners golden chance#6676012/11/01; 06:38:06


JOHANNESBURG, Dec 11 (Reuters) - ``The Lord of the Rings'' film epic launched this week is all about heroic efforts to save the world by destroying one evil golden ring -- but now a South African mine plans to make thousands of them. The film's producer New Line Cinema has allowed Harmony Gold Mining Co. to make the inscribed 22-carat rings for the South African market and they have already attracted worldwide interest, the mine's marketing director Ferdi Dippenaar said.

The Elven-language text, striking dread into the hearts of men, dwarves and elves, reads: ``One Ring to rule them all, One Ring to find them, One Ring to bring them all and in the darkness bind them.'' Dippenaar, whose firm is South Africa's third largest gold miner, sees an opportunity here to raise the profile of gold. ``The Lord of the Rings is an international event...if the movie goes down well the ring will become one of those sought after items,'' he said on Tuesday.

Black Blade: OK Gandy, what have you been up to? This your doing? And I'm still waiting for my decoder ring.

LeighBlack Blade#6676112/11/01; 06:56:36

I wonder if they offer a discount to shareholders. My son would love to have one of those rings!
PizzMoney Money Everywhere and Making More to Spend#6676212/11/01; 08:00:43

Couple thoughts last night. Thank you Belgian, you're helping confirm this foggy Big Picture floating around in my mind.

What a box all this fiat has got us in. If you're flat broke and borrowed to the hilt, its pretty hard to spend more money (average consumer) to pump the engine. Now, evertime in the past good old Uncle Sam has cranked up spending (with borrowed money) and primed the pump.

The government can't get their hands on all the fiat in circulation to spend - they don't own it. You can't deficit spend without a lender, and if foreigners don't want it because they finally figured out the game (using the $ for reserves and thereby inflating their own currencies) and the banks (who have been sucking up the excess) have balance sheets that can't support declining asset values (bond market dropping), the only answer is raising taxes (politically unacceptable and self defeating).

Last resort would be War Bonds, and this only works in an economy that has already bottomed. I don't think the American public is going to go to the bank and borrow at 10% to buy 5% War Bonds to finance "the WAR". They already ran that trial balloon and it wasn't well taken.

The only answer is for the government to sell an unencumbered asset that someone else wants. And if you legally can't sell it, why not lease it to a relative and borrow the money back using the asset as collateral. Anyone want to guess what the asset may be?

I could be totally off base, but if it starts to look like a duck, walk like a duck, and quack like one (and Black Blade doesn't shoot it) it usually is.

If the US gold reserve is encoumbered and $ continues to crash, the US public will barbeque Washington DC. Ya, I AM PERSONALLY STARTING TO SEE A REALLY BIG PROBLEM. Now, put youself in the position of the PTB. You'd be doing the same knee-jerk reactions, lies, and everything else to save your butt. MOST IMPORTANTLY, YOU SURE AS HECK WOULD DO EVERTHING YOU COULD TO KEEP GOLD FROM RISING. I only see one solution. The US will, one morning, default and try to start over. Noone will want the new $ (or whats left of the old one), and the good old USA will take a huge step backwards in living standards (after the lynchings in Washington).

FOA, where ever you are, at first I took most of your thoughts with a big grain of salt. Now as the picture becomes a little clearer and the financial options are fewer, IMHO you've got it right. You've got the big picture. Gold for wealth, a few Euro's in pocket for spending.

Just my humble opinion as I try to clear the fog and grasp the big picture.


uponroofAll Time Lows in the Banking Sector......the worst is yet to come.#6676312/11/01; 08:06:49

"Three of Japan's four major banking groups hit all-time lows during the day. The market is concerned that banks are being slow to tackle the high number of non-performing loans on their balance sheets."

Well concerns over "slow to tackle" may soon give way to "what's the rush!!?" Ever try to tackle an 800 billion dollar steamroller? I'm afraid once the tackling begins, pancake roadkill will become a bigger concern. Watching Japan with great interest these days.

Black Blade- nice article on the gold ring. MK may want to buy a few and do his own clever engraving on them linking USAGOLD to the ring. Might provide a nice momento for those here who have learned and fought the gold scam. Like the GATA print, they will represent proud vindication when gold breaks free. Imagine visitors to your home, spotting these conversation pieces and asking what they stand for. Hummmmmmm. "Sit down a while, I'd love to explain."

Harmony again proves it's deft business instincts. Can you feel it? Everything seems to be going right for the few, the proud, the unhedged these days.


Cavan Manuponroof#6676412/11/01; 08:30:39

Have been following your posts from the road regarding Japan. Agree with you; the situation there is pretty serious. There is a good article in the 12-10 FT. Best..CM
sector@uponroof#6676512/11/01; 08:37:10

American "Helpers" in Japan

Do you suppose that the numerous American financial "helpers" advising Japan are there to plead with them NOT to sell their 30 year bonds?
Cavan ManAustrian CB $US 1 Billion AU Purchase#6676612/11/01; 08:38:19

Hello CB (too)

It was reported in the press by Kevin DeMerritt of Lear financial that the Austrian CB purchased 100 tons more/less of AU bullion recently. I have made a modest effort to confirm same as I believe this information if true is very, very significant.

I have a friend who is a 20 year veteran gold trader in NY and asked him if he could help run this down. Received a call from him this morning. He has received confirmation from a veteran futures trader at a large Wall Street firm (household name variety)that the information regarding the purchase is correct. Approximately $1 billion USD were exchanged for 100 tons of AU bullion.

I find the timing more than coincidental and, the fact that this "information" got into the press to be curious to say the least.

CoBra(too)Re: Austrian CB gold purchase #6676712/11/01; 09:13:23

Hello CM,

Tried to verify the same as Klaus Liebscher, OeNB Governor, was giving interviews left and right over the last little while. Not even mentioned gold and at a seminar last week one of the participants asked him outright about it and was rebuffed by stating it's the bank's internal policy and not public information. So much for having a privately held CB!

Anyway, had a few hints that the gold purchase has taken place and it was for their own reserves and not for the mint, as the Austrian Mint tells me they do their own gold purchases directly since they became indepent from the OeNB a few years ago.

Bodes well for AU - also Wayne Murdy (NEM) sees a significant price hike for POG ...

Regards cb2

PizzCB gold Sales and Purchases#6676812/11/01; 10:37:14

Bank of England and Swiss selling off excess Au - in effect mopping up excess fiat. Austria CB buying? Wouldn't have something to do with the fact the the pound and Swiss franc are still going to be around, while Euro based countries are adding gold to support the Euro. Looks like the Euro may be in more demand than anyone thinks or in the case of US-- wants to think.

Everyone posturing. Looks like first of year and fireworks are going to fly. Still looks like everyone may be on a modified gold standard. Unfortunately there isn't enough mined gold in the world to support the US dollar. More reasons why US is going to default. Based upon what I feel, there is only one worse place to be than the US and that's Japan. If the US is going to bleed, Japan is going to gush.

If (or more probably when US does default) whats left of old dollar or more probably the new dollar will be backed by US gold. I still think we have physical possession, its just the paper IOU's and derrivitives that will burn. As everone knows, we did it once, its just this time not only will we default on gold promises, it will be bonds too. Wonder what kind of deal they'll make for domestic holders.?

Belgian - Make sense from your side of pond???

The past and current suppressing of Au has kept the bulk of middle class America from owning pysical in hand - still playing paper that will burn - except for mining stocks (they should do ok). Must not have competition for the new currency.

Silver has become a bigger threat to the new fiat programs that I think are in the works. This could explain why there is such a shortage of small units. Wouldn't want a whole bunch of affordable (for the masses) competition running around lose. When the hammer hits Au will be too expensive for 95% of Americans - so no competition there. (Just keep thinking you'll be able to pay off your mortgage will 5 or ten ounces of Au, your car and credit cards with about the same in Ag. and you'll do just fine with what you have left.)

Keep in mind, in the US we can't easily invest in competing currencies. US banks use US dollars for the sheeple exclusively. No competition there either. Washington knows they have to keep fiat at least breathing, albeit mortally wounded, but that hopefully will be on someone else's watch (this is how I think the PTB are thinking).

End game real close. All the AU you can beg,borrow, or whatever IN HAND. Ag too.

(Anyone stop to think why we haven't had any more terror attacks in US? THEY don't have too. THEY GOT THE SNOWBALL ROLLOWING OVER THE CREST OF THE HILL WITH WTC.) Now all they have to do is sit back and watch. Can't give the US anyone to blame except themselves. Too much military hardware in inventory.)

Black Blade - I agree - Real grim.

Cavan Man@ CB (too)#6676912/11/01; 11:21:28

PS: To Austrian CB AU Post

The bullion was acquired thru central banking channels. Are we just seeing "more transparency" in the gold market or do you find it as interesting as I do that this deal saw the light of day.

Good year for AU in 02 and better in 03. Go Xfiles....CM

Tommy PThe CIA and Gold#6677012/11/01; 11:58:33

We must start a march not a million man march(although the African Americans should now the truth about Africa's largest export commodity) this march should be 10 million plus! To dispose the Government that does not serve the people.!!!!
site stewardToday's FOMC statement...for the record#6677112/11/01; 12:51:16

Release Date: December 11, 2001

The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1-3/4 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 1-1/4 percent.

Economic activity remains soft, with underlying inflation likely to edge lower from relatively modest levels. To be sure, weakness in demand shows signs of abating, but those signs are preliminary and tentative. The Committee continues to believe that, against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the risks are weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future.

Although the necessary reallocation of resources to enhance security may restrain advances in productivity for a time, the long-term prospects for productivity growth and the economy remain favorable and should become evident once the unusual forces restraining demand abate.

In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Chicago and San Francisco.

Perfect! While not their intended meaning, this phrase by the Committee should suggest a particular course of action (i.e., diversification) with respect to your portfolio of "personal resources".

" . . . the necessary reallocation of resources to enhance security......"


UsulConsignia to cut up to 30,000 jobs#6677212/11/01; 14:05:11

"Consignia, the company formerly known as the Post Office, has said up to 30,000 jobs are to go over the next 18 months..."

Yes- another 30,000 non-essential "bones" Consign'd to the "bone pile"- indeed a pile of transatlantic proportions.

Canuck@ Cavan Man#6677312/11/01; 14:33:34

Excellent news, any further confirmation (ie news story) would help the cause.

Austrian CB website?

site stewardShort learning curve: Euro area FinMin now grasps independence of ECB#6677412/11/01; 14:40:43

PARIS, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Didier Reynders, the Belgian Finance Minister who currently chairs meetings of his euro zone colleagues, said on Tuesday he did not expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates again until 2002. "Everything will depend on the development of inflation and the behaviour of salaries. But that will be a decision for the central bank..." he told reporters.

And in case it hasn't sunk in yet, the new CB target for the U.S. fed funds rate is just 1.75 percent. By way of comparison, the primary rate in Euroland remains at 3.25 percent.

Consider again Japan's plight mentioned this morning -- heavy with dollars. Before you leap to the conclusion that the euro will benefit, consider also that Japan will not want to repeat its mistakes of the past.

The enduring lesson here is to go for the gold... in a free market environment (which is still under evolutionary construction, but is taking shape nicely, thankyouverymuch).


Canuck@ Pizz#6677512/11/01; 14:42:59

Nice job! (66762)
site stewardHEADLINE: Chinese economy will boom with WTO admission#6677612/11/01; 15:23:27


-------China's admission to the World Trade Organization is expected to pay bid dividends for the world's second-largest economy, an economist at TD Bank said Tuesday. ...... Since it opened its economy to the outside world in 1978, China's share of world output has grown from 3.4 per cent in 1980 to 11.6 per cent last year. That growth helped China displace Japan in 1994 as the world's second-largest economy, trailing only the United States. ...... Acceptance into the WTO is expected to help raise the standard of living in the country of 1.3 billion people----------

And to be borne in mind with this is that China is diligently and purposefully liberalizing its gold market.

The equation solves itself. You need gold.


Pizz@Canuck - Thanks for the compliment (I think)#6677712/11/01; 15:45:26

Feel like I'm carvin' my own tombstone. Seriously, though, do you know if a US citizen can go to Canada, open a bank account, and get a safe deposit box?

Might not be a bad option to have a little AU on deposit (box) outside US. I'm only a few hours from the border.

uponroofJapanese Banks Scramble To Sell Foreign Assets To Fund Bad-Loan Cleanup #6677812/11/01; 16:20:13

Wednesday, December 12, 2001

TOKYO (Nikkei)--Big Japanese banks are stepping up sales of overseas assets in a bid to improve their finances and generate funds for their bad-loan cleanup efforts.

UFJ Holdings Inc. (8307) said Monday that it plans to sell its wholly owned unit, United California Bank, to French banking group BNP Paribas SA in the current fiscal year.

The Japanese banking group -- which consists of Sanwa Bank, Tokai Bank and Toyo Trust & Banking Co. -- had been negotiating with BNP Paribas since the summer, said a source familiar with the situation.

In fiscal 2000, United California Bank recorded a net profit of about 15 billion yen.

UFJ Holdings' decision to sell off its prime asset highlights its effort to combat its sliding capital ratio. By removing United California Bank from its consolidated earnings, it says its capital ratio will improve by 0.6 point.

In order to maintain the ratio at 10%, "we will make an effort to increase the efficiency of every single asset," a Sanwa Bank executive said.

Similarly, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. (8318) plans to sell its roughly 8.67 million shares of U.S. brokerage giant Goldman Sachs, which account for about 1.8% of its outstanding shares, via U.S. subsidiary SMBC Capital Markets Inc. The sale is expected to total some 800 million dollars, or about 100 billion yen, and the resulting profit around 600 million dollars, or 74 billion yen.

The bank plans to eliminate 1 trillion yen in bad loans this fiscal year and to offset the resulting losses with the profit from the share sale.

In the second half of the 1980s, many Japanese banks placed U.S. and European finance firms under their umbrella. But with the deterioration of finances, these banks began reorganizing their assets by selling them, among other things. In fact, Dai-Ichi Kangyo Bank and Fuji Bank both took such action as selling affiliated-finance companies this year.

The banks plan to reorganize their domestic operations as well. Japan's 13 major banks are aiming to reduce domestic branches at more than 600 locations by spring 2006. Also, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking and UFJ Holdings are currently considering whether to sell or securitize their Tokyo headquarters buildings.

Cavan Man-thanks for the tip. FT has always been an excellent source of news. Nice search engine there also. btw- Found some good Japanese economy reports at the New York Times over the last four days by James Brooke (free register).

sector-selling whatever isn't nailed down seems to be the plan. Selling US bonds is only a matter of time. Japan must find a way to reduce it's offical dollar holdings to limit exposure to dollar devaluation against the yen. Right now it's on a hair trigger which could inflict major losses with only a small downward dollar move.

To make matters worse there are internal conflicts arising at the BOJ. Nobuyuki Nakahara, board member of the BOJ, has come out and publicly criticized the boards policies today. "I hope that the quality of the BOJ's monetary policy decisions improves," said Nakahara.

As for the economy, Nakahara defined a deflationary spiral as an increase in price plunges during an economic downturn, among other things. That said, "the Japanese economy is in the early stages of a deflationary spiral," he said.

He expressed support for establishing a price stability target and proposed the use of currency swaps as a way to complement the bank's supplying of funds to the market.

Hummmmmmm. The coinciding euro entry might provide convenient cover for the frantic Japanese. Yes, the American "helpers" must be going crazy. (hee hee hee)

Belgian@ Pizz#6677912/11/01; 16:25:31

CBs (Austria) has been selling 30 tonnes (within WA), if my memory serves me well and now a buy of 100 tonnes. As intuitively concluded before : reshufflings within the CBs in EMU and outside. See how Chineze and Russian CBs are systematically buying their own Gold production. As if they both want to come in line with euro-management.

Impossible to predict what the US will do with its bonds. It surely will be some drastic measures when the dike breaks (cfr. no more issue of USTB-30 yrs). A brutal overnight devaluation against what : euro or Gold ? Or a stubborn denial and the markets who de facto devalue with price (hyper)inflation to curb the trade deficit and make all dollar-debt much lighter. Most americans are not familiar with other currencies and will not have the reflex to flight into euro or SWF. They will go for Gold and silver, the physical that is.

Pizz, a constant re-reading of TG-guidance and permanently touching his theories with the unfolding facts is a very pleasant occupation. I see you are catching up fast ! smi-leeeee.

The Russian CB is trying to stop the rouble from bleeding (30 roubles/US$). One day the ordinarry russians are going to be fed up with the plunder of their resources for what will prove to be fake green confetti. They aren't going to be happy with the brutal awakening. Post communism period of nationalism is still in the pipeline.

The dollar is over-owned !!!! That in itself is explosive.
8.125 tonnes of US Gold at 270$, is *nothing* to defend this ocean of confetti. The euro-builders have only one obsession : price stability !!!! No more than 2% depreciation ! Dollar debt grows 4 times faster than GDP.

CoBra(too)Re- Austrian CB#6678012/11/01; 16:42:25

@ CM & Canuck,
I believe that the recent purchase of gold by the Austrian CB as reported by Bill Buckler and others is true, though you won't find any direct reference on their above website (BTW go to english version). I couldn't even find any clue in their weekly statistical reports, as they don't really differentiate the reserve positions. I've tried several times in the past to talk about their gold reserves, but never got far.

In the meantime Harmony vowed to close the hedges of Hill 50 if they succeed in their takeover bid. That's another 1.4 Moz, following the NEM/FN merger proposal for Normandy, which would wipe out another 9Moz.

May Godsell and Oliphant along with their bankers sweat the golden (jewellry) bullets!

Cheers - cb2

megatronMartin where are ya?#6678112/11/01; 17:22:54

Does anyone have any idea what is going on with the Martin Armstrong case? the more I think of it the more it seems to me he must have been pretty deep inside for them to shutter this case like they have. Why all the fear in letting him 'sing'? Anyone? Curious.
CoBra(too) FN - News Release#6678212/11/01; 17:33:49

Franco-Nevada confirms commitment to Newmont deal

Franco-Nevada Mining Corp Ltd FN
Shares issued 158,661,470 Dec 11 close $21.97
Tue 11 Dec 2001 News Release
Ms. Sharon Dowdall reports
Franco-Nevada today announced that it had taken note of the revised offer
to be made by Newmont Mining Corporation to acquire the ordinary shares of
Normandy Mining Limited. Pierre Lassonde, president and co-chief executive
officer of Franco-Nevada, currently in Australia, commented that "Although
this amendment will not result in any direct economic benefit to
Franco-Nevada -- or its shareholders -- who will continue to receive 0.8
common share of Newmont for each of their shares of Franco-Nevada -- this
is another step towards the creation of the premier global gold company
which management believes has superior share price appreciation potential."
Mr. Lassonde said: "It is unfortunate that AngloGold feels that it is
necessary to continue to confuse the choice to be made by shareholders of
Normandy. Newmont is offering Normandy shareholders a clearly superior
alternative. The market shows that the Newmont offer affords them the
greatest value, including twice the cash that AngloGold has put on the
He noted that: "As a shareholder, director and officer of Franco-Nevada, I
am committed to this transaction. It has the full approval of our board and
our key shareholders. We have complete confidence that the shareholders of
Franco-Nevada, who have overwhelmingly endorsed the other initiatives
proposed by the Franco-Nevada board over the past 18 years, will show
similar support. Based on our conversations with shareholders of Newmont,
Normandy and Franco-Nevada, we believe their support of this transaction is
very solid."
He also noted that, while Newmont's offer is subject to conditions usual
for a transaction of this type, Franco-Nevada and its advisers have no
reason to expect that these conditions cannot be satisfied. Franco-Nevada
intends to convene the meeting of its shareholders to consider the
transaction on Jan. 30, 2002, and to mail the related materials to its
shareholders in the last week of December.
(c) Copyright 2001 Canjex Publishing Ltd.

This confirms that FN's Pierre Lassonde is totally committed to the NEM/FN/NDY deal. In my view he is the king pin since he has the cash and a 19.9% interest in NDY, as well as no interest in overhedged AU.

If this battle is won by the non-hedgers a sea-change in conception for gold investment might ensue.

Cheers - cb2

LeighMegatron#6678312/11/01; 17:55:45

Megatron, in honor of your question about Martin Armstrong, I re-wrote a very old song.

Edward, Martin, and ______ (can't think of a name)
(To the Tune of "Abraham, Martin, and John")

Has anybody here seen my old friend Edward (Safra)?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
He sold a lot of gold, but it seems the insiders they die young.
I just looked around and he's gone.

Has anybody here seen my old friend Martin (Armstrong)?
Can you tell me where he's gone?
He pissed off a lot of people, and it seems he too might die young.
I just looked around and he's gone.

Has anybody here seen my old friend (can't think of anyone else)

Hopefully someone can finish my song! Goldfly, are you around?

LeighLast Verse to the Song#6678412/11/01; 17:59:56

Oh, I forgot the last verse:

Don't you love the things they stood for? (not really)
Didn't they try to find some good in you and me? (how much gold did we own?)
And we'll be free (gold will be free) someday soon.
It's gonna be one day.

Black BladeAlcoa Closing Tennessee Plant#6678512/11/01; 18:28:14


Alcoa Will Close Its Aluminum Extrusion Plant in Elizabethton, Tenn.; 240 People to Lose Jobs.

Black Blade: Add to that little piles of "Bones" at JC Penny (91), and Providence Journal (90). This on top of 1500 "Bones" fired at Kroger.

megatronLeigh#6678612/11/01; 18:28:47

That is very funny. And quick too. : ) I gets really deep really fast does it not? when you look at the connections. I almost feel sorry for the guy. Maybe someone will 'wack' him too, before he 'squeals'. I hope not. He must have a lot of very interesting things to say to be kept down like that.
I wonder why they 'turned' on him. Hmmmmmm.....

Black BladeCompanies swing jobs axe to save profits#6678712/11/01; 18:34:24

Just a partial death list of nonessential "Bones" that were cast aside by industry and sector. Look for an acceleration in layoffs after the holidays. Corporate profits are falling off a cliff. Watch for the spin that corporations are beating "lowered" estimates. If one lowers the bar enough, even a slug could leap over it. In a word - "GRIM"

- Black Blade

Black BladeThe Future Oil War#6678812/11/01; 18:46:29


Hubbert's Peak, the new book by Kenneth Deffeyes, tells us what is at stake in the Middle East: a petrochemical reserve of limitless value in an age when world oil production will start declining quite soon. The social philosopher Richard Cheney has told us that we are at the beginning of an age of unending war. Cheney isn't very social, and he doesn't know philosophy. But he surely understands the geophysics and the politics of oil.

We could control the dollar price, so that the oil shortfall remains largely invisible to the American consumer. One has to believe that this idea has occurred to the oilmen in charge. The problem then is that conditions elsewhere have to be much worse. For this strategy implies pricing developing countries out of the oil market by driving their currencies down. This can be done by driving a hard bargain on their debts. Eventually, irrigation pumps will run dry, and the Green Revolution would start running backwards. From the standpoint of the developing world, the game is zero-sum; our success in a war for control is their descent into famine.

Black Blade: For all that we know this scenario is being played out right now. An interesting thought-provoking broad based article.

MythicalHenri#6678912/11/01; 18:51:33

Thank you for your kind mention of my "clinks" although I am but the only one remaining who announces them...a carry-over from an earlier "Call to arms" by a visiting knight that we band together and buy physical announcing our purchases in this noble fortress.

Me: You're quite welcome...Nice to see someone else express such enthusiasm and joy when they receive some gold in hand. And look... we seemed to have awaken Sir Gandalf. Perhaps many will follow.

Thank you also for responding to the venerable Mr. Gresham in my absence.

Me: I don't tend to make a habit of it, but glad you didn't mind. Although I don't contribute much, I like to "brush the dust off" of my password occasionally. You obviously answered the question much better than I ever could.

A belated and hearty welcome to this forum. I can tell by your mention of my "clinking that you must have been long lurking as I haven't clinked in a coon's age.

Me: Thank you for the welcome. Athough I've shed the lurker status some time ago, I must admit that I've lurked for years. I've followed the forum since it's fact, I remember reading MK's commentaries/updates over at Kitco along with likes of Oro, PH in LA, etc. This forum has truly evolved into one fantastic source of information (Thanks FOA).

Not to stray too far off-topic, I noticed you mentioned hunting in PA. Do you reside in PA? If so, what "neck of the woods?" I currently reside in Colorado, but spent the majority of my years in western PA. Traveled home for the Thanksgiving Day holiday and my father mentioned that the state is combining buck/doe season. Should make for an interesting season no? Take care Henri...I hope to throw a few "Clinks" out there later this week on payday!


Black BladeJ.P. Morgan Sues Enron for $2.1 Billion#6679012/11/01; 19:09:19


NEW YORK (Reuters) - J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.(NYSE:JPM), one of Enron Corp.'s (NYSE:ENE) biggest creditors, on Tuesday sued the troubled energy trader for more than $2.1 billion on behalf of itself and related parties.

Black Blade: Take a number and get in line. This could end up making LTCM look like small potatoes in comparison. The rumor is that as much as $1 Trillion of leveraged contracts could be at stake (if CNBC is to be believed). "Interesting Times"

WaveriderAnother 6,000...Fiat #6679112/11/01; 20:19:32

Car manufacturer Fiat Auto has said it will cut 6,000 jobs outside Italy over the next two years as part of a big shake-up of its business and warned it will make a loss this year.

But the announcement contained bad news for Argentina, currently mired in a four year recession and struggling to gain a fresh loan from the International Monetary Fund to avoid a debt default. Iveco is to move its operations from Argentina to Brazil.

This is Fiat Auto's second restructuring announcement in as many months."

skiIs silver's moment fast approaching??#6679212/11/01; 20:23:06

There seems to be something quite unusual happening in the silver arena lately. Over the past couple of years I have been on the lookout for suitable silver-related articles to e-mail to others. A good article every 3 or 4 months was the norm. However, I have recently noticed a SWARM of exceptional articles. Furthermore, it also seems like many influential writers have turned the corner and joined the bandwagon.

I just bumped into the link above ... and it's a barnburner. A snip....

"A mere billion dollars for investment silver will cause the silver stockpile for fabrication use to reach zero within a matter of days."

The author is listed as "Wally Bently" ... apparently just a phony name .... but he does seem to have his facts in order.

The CoinGuyBlack Blade Hmmm...#6679312/11/01; 20:23:33

Didn't Enron just secure a line of credit from JPM/Chase last week? did I miss something in between? I was under the impression they were keeping Enron alive so they could collect they could keep their books alive. I may be wrong, but it looks like the vultures are turning on themselves here?

Also: I'll throw a dozen bones on your pile(If I can throw that high). Two of my favorite upscale mens clothiers here in town are both closing down. I received "CLOSE OUT SALE" mailers from both in the past three days. It looks like Wal-Mart might do well for some time, but the upscale places look as though they are in deep trouble...

The CoinGuy/Euro CashGuy the 12 guage, it has a pheasant on one side instead of the Turkey, but your right the inlay is nice...and no shells of the nose is even nicer!

Black BladeCoinGuy#6679412/11/01; 20:29:34

I believe that you're right! I recall the line of credit somewhere around $1.5 billion. "Oh what a tangled web they weave, when ...."

- Black Blade

skiAdditional Silver Article#6679512/11/01; 20:44:06


You run into many articles that are full of HYPE and few articles that are full of FACTS. The link above should take you to an article that is very heavy on silver facts.

The CoinGuySki#6679612/11/01; 20:49:27

Just got done reading the first article you posted. #6 in that article mentions a new Islamic Financial Center. Where gold and silver would be used. Is the writer referring to the E-Dinar(similar to E-gold) movement that is afoot, or something else that is in the works?

Thanks for the link,

The CoinGuy

goldquestMartin Armstrong Updates#6679712/11/01; 21:32:02

Still in jail!
mikalRe: Cornering#6679812/11/01; 21:37:05

"A Billion dollars could buy"... lots of undervalued farmer commodities, porkbellies, wheat, but exchange rules prohibit trades that disrupt markets- since the owners of the markets have a vested and controlling interest in the casino markets popularity and cash flows. Natural resources are released to the markets to be sold, traded, and consumed only in the amounts that ensure the most wealthy globalists control continues. This should permit silver stockpiles unreported up to now, such as black gold is, to remain unreported. The silver lining is that all the analysts are right about the price direction, except that it will be very profitable, as always, for the our masters to see wild volatile price swings and caps- the most significant cap being the one which ensures, like the supply cap, that CONTROL.
Brett WoodsWorth a re-print at this time i tink; slightly abridged:#6679912/11/01; 21:52:08

To: Vincent Viola
Chairman and J. Robert Collins, Jr.
President New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.
One North End Avenue World Financial Center
New York, NY 10282

Dear Mr. Viola and Mr. Collins:

This is to inform you that there is a serious and dangerous problem in the silver futures market on the Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX), according to the just-released Commitment of Traders Report (COT). The COT of Oct. 5, 2001, for positions as of Oct. 2, clearly indicates a manipulation in progress. Large commercials now make up 80% of the entire futures short position.

In the past three weeks, the large commercials (normally considered COMEX insiders), have increased their net short position by 175 million ounces, or 350%, to 225 million ounces net short. The additional 175 million ounces sold short, in just three weeks, is more than any country can produce in two years or much longer. It is more than all known silver stockpiles in the entire world. Four or less traders
hold 130 million ounces net short, greater than all known silver bullion in the world, and more than any country produces annually.

It is not possible for the short selling of 175 million ounces of silver in a three week period, not to manipulate the price. The price of silver would be materially higher, were it not for this manipulative and uneconomic naked short selling. To be clear, the four or less traders in the commercial category are manipulators, or represent manipulators. There is absolutely no economic purpose to their naked short position, save to depress the price of silver. You must put an end to this manipulation. No other market in the world, just COMEX silver, has such a large, concentrated short position, where a few traders are allowed to be short more than, literally, all the known material in the world.

On top of all the above, the Sep. 11 horror buried the 30 million ounces of silver in the Scotia Mocatta warehouse, rendering it unavailable for a long time. This 30 million ounces makes up 30% of the entire COMEX silver inventory, the largest in the world. In fact, the buried and unavailable silver comprises 25% of total known world silver bullion inventory. One quarter of all known silver bullion in the world is made unavailable overnight, and COMEX insider commercials rush to sell short obscene amounts, on a 50 cent rally? Who do these insiders think they are?

I am a silver analyst who has consistently recommended COMEX silver warehouse receipts as the best method for holding physical silver in size. Many people have taken my advice, and have purchased these receipts. But, I must tell you, first off, I am troubled that the COMEX has not been forthcoming with public assurances that all the silver involved in the WTC 4 warehouse is fully insured and that the owners will be protected. The COMEX's silence, on this matter, is conspicuous and disturbing. Second, the sheer mismatch between the extreme and concentrated commercial naked short position, jumping 350% in three weeks, and the suddenly-reduced available physical silver inventory, is alarming. Inventory is effectively sharply reduced, and the insiders short position explodes 350%. A reasonable person would contemplate default.

This is your notice, that if we do have a default in COMEX silver, or any market emergencies related to restricting the rights of bona fide long contract holders, it will be because of the concentrated commercial COMEX- insider shorts.

Given the magnitude of the concentrated naked short position and the condition of the Scotia Mocatta facility, I call on you to rectify this outrageous situation immediately. It is your responsibility to end the clear short side manipulation in silver by these insider crooks. I understand that you are new to COMEX leadership, and your backgrounds don't indicate a close association with the commercial insider manipulators. If you don't end their crooked activities, you will be sanctioning those activities.

Ted Butler

skiThe Coin Guy #66796#6680012/11/01; 22:34:13

I don't know enough about the proposed Islmic currency or the thoughts of the author who mentioned it to give you an answer. However, I have asked myself where this group would ever get enough silver to launch the project.
WaveriderCavallo faces the end again...#6680112/11/01; 22:52:47

"When Domingo Cavallo was appointed as Argentina's economy minister in March, he had a reputation in the international financial markets as something of a miracle worker.

Ten months later, the illusion appears to be shattered as an Argentine default on its $132bn foreign debt, the largest in history, looks unavoidable.

But a general strike against the latest austerity measures on Thursday and resistance from the opposition-controlled Congress could bring an end to Mr Cavallo's second term as economy minister...

Waverider: It looks as though Mr. Cavallo will be relegated to the status of nonessential "Bones".

WaveriderFrom Poor to Rich: Capital is Flowing in the Wrong Direction#6680212/11/01; 23:25:25

"The Argentine currency and debt saga has dragged on for so long that it is easy to think of it as a one-country crisis. But it may be just the tip of the iceberg of an alarming imbalance in liquidity between developed and developing countries. At a time when the world needs a demand boost from countries in the best position to grow - the developing world - capital is moving in the wrong direction...Developing countries worry about the U.S. recession. And there is increasing resentment at an international financial architecture which imposes so many constraints on them but allows America to use the position of the dollar to avoid reasonable monetary and balance of payments discipline..."

The CoinGuySki #66800#6680312/11/01; 23:38:07

Thanks for replying. I hadn't heard anything along these lines, that is why I asked. I'll keep my ear to the ground and see what I come up with.

I have heard about the new E-Dinar movement, and I wasn't sure if silver was going to be involved with their gold market or not, but you do have a point, where are they going to get enough supply?

Didn't I read about the Russians minting a "Sable" silver coin to go along with the Chevronetz...


The CoinGuy

Black BladeAttempt to block Newmont offer for Normandy fails#6680412/12/01; 00:54:46


SYDNEY, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Australian corporate regulators on Wednesday refused the latest application by South Africa's AngloGold Ltd to block U.S.-based Newmont Mining Corp's (NYSE:NEM) offer for gold miner Normandy Mining Ltd (Australia:NDY.AX).

AngloGold Ltd has vowed to keep fighting for Normandy despite being gazumped by Newmont, which tacked a 40 cents per share sweetener onto its scrip-based bid earlier this week. Whoever wins Normandy will become the global number one gold producer, controlling gold mines spread over several continents. Wednesday's ruling is the latest in a series of applications lodged by AngloGold with the Australian regulators in an attempt to invalidate the Newmont offer. AngloGold has also tried unsuccessfully to block Newmont by claiming a A$38 million break fee agreed by Normandy was invalid. The panel also ordered AngloGold to rescind a plan to offer higher brokers fees to encourage Normandy shareholders to swap their shares for AngloGold scrip.

Black Blade: What's that smell? It must be the smell of fear in the air! There is sheer PANIC at AngloGold headquarters tonight. AU "MUST" win here. They "MUST" stop the NDY takeover. NEM has already made overtures that they would like to acquire Lihir (another small hedged miner). Tonight Goldfields and Delta Gold made it a done deal and are now merged as Delta Gold shareholders give their approval. The days of the Gold shorts - primarily AngloGold and Barrick are numbered as Gold could soon be set loose to run higher in the face of a massive unwinding of forward sold positions.. NEM plans to unwind the NDY 9.5 million oz. position. NEM is also rumored to have set it's sights on hedged Newcrest Mining as well. We know now that unhedged Harmony Gold Mining will acquire hedged Hill 50 Mining and will unwind that 1.4 million oz. forward position. As I said, the days of the hedgers are numbered - there is PANIC at AU headquarters tonight. Can you smell it?

KnallgoldChina selling Gold#6680512/12/01; 04:27:30

Just read in a local newspaper,(besides the usual antiGold blabla),the only positive might be the free Gold trade in Shanghai.The current flow is estimated at 200t per year,"will increase to 300-600t due to the new Gold exchange"."Should the for this exchange delivered(!?) Gold not suffice,the Peoples Bank of China has pledged to give the market further (!) 200tonnes of their 383 tonnes reserve".

Can anyone confirm something of this?I know it is one of the usual contrary antiGold articles,I always read them and they are always "right" (in the contrary sense).It is either the old song a) Gold loses its luster b)China selling Sil.. äh Gold or c)the Gold control(lers) has(ve) now catched China.We have have also read about possible futurestrading in China.Smokescreen?

Either the physical-only-in the thousands-free trade is bogus or someone is lying blatantly.I know the latter from the $-antiGold faction.They must be very desperate to mess with the facts in such a way.Maybe this is what Pandagold forecasted,only a few Bugs left standing on their feet.I feel the pain,but nothing of the 227 reasons to buy Gold has changed!

Black BladeAmerican Express to Take Fourth Quarter Restructuring Charge of $240 to $280 Million and Eliminate 5,500 to 6,500 Jobs#6680612/12/01; 06:54:55


NEW YORK, Dec. 12 /PRNewswire/ -- American Express Company (NYSE: AXP) said today that it expects to recognize a fourth quarter restructuring charge of approximately $240 to $280 million pre-tax (approximately $150 to $180 million after-tax). The charge would primarily cover severance and the related expenses of eliminating approximately 5,500 to 6,500 jobs, as well as the cost of consolidating real estate facilities to reflect the reduced staffing levels. The staff reductions announced today are in addition to the reductions of 7,700 positions announced earlier this year. The total number of jobs eliminated -- 13,200 to 14,200 -- represents approximately 15 percent of the workforce as of the beginning of 2001.

Black Blade: That's a lot of nonessential bankster "Bones" off to the "Bone Pile." Those bad loans are coming back to haunt the banksters.

miner49erBelgian#6680712/12/01; 07:02:12

just tuned in... thank you for your compliment re:66644 on 66639...

best regards,

Black BladeCrying For Argentina#6680812/12/01; 07:03:45


Meanwhile, crisis-weary Argentines have been lining up at banks to withdraw funds since Economy Minister Domingo Cavallo last week slapped on capital controls restricting cash withdrawals to $1,000 a month to end a run on the banks. Tempers frayed outside one bank as automatic teller machines were emptied of cash.

"I'm angry," shouted 72-year-old Herminio Fernandez. "I work my whole damn life, and then this son of a bitch Cavallo stops me from accessing my money. Not even the communists in Russia would have done this."

Black Blade: These poor people would probably be feeling a bit better if they had a portion of their savings set aside in Gold and Silver. Now the must rely on the "Faith and Credit of the Government." Hmmm…

SpartacusArgentina's problem#6680912/12/01; 07:12:44

..The main export of the U.S., is paper. It's very fine stuff, made by a famous papermaker...
Black BladeHoliday heat is on for Amazon #6681012/12/01; 07:13:41


Barron's is after again. Same old story, says a headline, with sales up and profits nonexistent. The magazine points out that Amazon is a retailer, with warehouses, inventories and staff adding as much overhead as any bricks-and-motor store. The pressure is mounting on chief executive Jeff Bezos. Nearly a year ago, Bezos went public with the promise that the world's largest online retailer would be pro forma profitable this holiday season.

Black Blade: "Pro Forma" profitable? If isn't actually profitable (and soon!), then the company is toast and will likely be looking for a buyer. "Pro Forma" accounting is a joke but it does fool gullible investors and Wall Street Trolls.

CoBra(too)@ BB#6681112/12/01; 07:19:24

Re your AMEX post - Seems to me that the longer the legal disclaimers get the more the co. is in dire straights :-), no?

... Starting a new disclaimer index -
Cheers cb2

BelgianKnall -China-Gold#6681212/12/01; 07:33:29

I'm "not" interpreting such an announcement as a negative.
On the contrary. Chineze mined, Physical Gold is distributed (yes, cheaply distributed) to Chineze citizens. There are loads of dollars in the Chineze reserves (lying idle) for accumulating Gold from outside (market) if necessary. China prefers to use its own underground Gold for refining instead of importing Gold to satisfy too enthousiastic uptake. This vision may sound a bit excentric, but my intuition tells me that the collectivities are (very)discretely, encouraging their citizens to accumulate Gold, with the absolute minimum on taxes and cost !?

Ex Belgian central banker, Verplaetse F. said today that the dollar will lose ground ! He said it with a very funny smile on his pragmatic face.
Andy Smith (Mitsui) on CNBC-Europ, about Gold : He simply doesn't know it and honestly admitted it!! Pure TA talk. A make or break situation on wich I do agree. A.S. mentioned that the M.E. is accumulating the Physical, when answering who is buying. He also confirmed that the 2.500 tonnes new yearly Gold, isn't affecting POG, at all.

The US has been ruling the world for the past 100 years. And still is. Therefore,
King dollar has to be approached (challenged) with gloves.
Gold is the stealth dollar-terrorist, hiding in Europ / Middle East / China / Russia.

Cavan ManBelgian#6681312/12/01; 07:44:20

China selling both gold and dollars (converting $ to Euro)? Something smells a little fishy?
Pizz@Belgian - Thanks for making me think#6681412/12/01; 07:55:51

Still mentally working on your response to my devaluation post.

Xmas tree lights in brain starting to come on one by one.

Its extremely difficult for my poor US brain to think in terms other than dollar. (smile) "Stubborn denial" will be a very, very expensive lesson. Looks like "death of a thousands cuts."

Back to studying the master (smile).


KnallgoldBelgian#6681512/12/01; 08:55:41

Ahh,Golden Democracy?
WAC (Wide Awake Club)@Black Blade - Amazon#6681612/12/01; 10:01:46

I remember reading a report from Merril Lynch saying Amazon should break even by 2007.
Belgian@ Knallgold#6681712/12/01; 11:07:15

The more that word "democraty" is used, the less democratic, things really are. The Chineze have always been masters in copying and improving (cfr. Japan). We often forget that they became N° 2 , bypassing Japan and still going strong.
Listening very carefull to the increasing amount of intervieuws about the euro, and concluded the following.
All 12 EMU members see no difficulty in holding inflation below 3%. And the euro-builders are taking it step by step.
They aren't in a hurry !

Japan will regret that it sticked with the US. China is going to consolidate its growing dominance in the Asian region before it decides on the right moment to let the dollar go.

The US financial media in Europ are stepping up their anti-euro reporting : counterfeiting / theft / and other negative remarks without some healthy dosis of objectivity.
Today it was the usual POG-pattern with a runup to 274,45 $
and the classic knock, when landing in NY.
LBMA paper trading has halved (500 tonnes per day from peak of 1.200 tonnes)) and Physical buying picks up very slowly but steady (WGC). Nice combination !

Tommy PThis Should increase tensions!!#6681812/12/01; 11:23:37

Now's not the time to be retracting this treaty!
sourdoughCDN GOLD SHARES OR CDN GOLD?#6681912/12/01; 11:40:57

Can`t decide?
Time to buy CDN dollars while you ponder the question.
Shares=getting more expensive!
Gold= getting cheaper!

Gandalf the WhiteHenri & Mythical et. al.#6682012/12/01; 12:36:18

Tis the SEASON to hear sleighbells, OR
"CLINK" !!!
Thanks MK

megatronMartin Armstrong#6682112/12/01; 13:27:54

Thank you to whomever sent that link to his defence site. I thought it quite funny how he characterized anyone who contemplated downward manipulation in silver as a nut, but as soon as there was a price rally, it was 'obviously, clearly manipulation'. I guess you see what you want to see, even if your a 'genius' metals trader. I am certain his being thrown in jail is nothing more than the 'market at work'. I wonder what his opinion is about conspiracies, now? : )
Gandalf the WhiteNice SHOW PPT !!#6682212/12/01; 14:18:16

GREAT manipulation at the Close of the Dow and Duck today!!

Artie Farklesilver#6682312/12/01; 14:45:33


Recently, I noticed a cion/bullion dealer stopped selling 100 oz. silver bars and, started selling 1000 oz. bars. In about two weeks they were sold out.

I asked them how many they sold. They said over 20!!

skiYet Another Recent Silver Article...#6682412/12/01; 15:06:35

No link to be provided

Just bumped into a very recent silver article by Ted Butler. He's sees that:

1. A sharp rise in silver lease rates
2. Tightness is physical avaliability and
3. The "Commercial-insiders" are now perfectly positioned for a price rise in the paper markets,

seem to indicate that everything is properly positioned for things to start happening.

A few direct quotes:

"If the UNUSUAL changes in silver lease rates signify that leasing is dying .... then the real supplies of metal ... must come from the free market at much higher prices."

"I've always believed that the POS would explode only when those who had been manipulating it, the dealers, had positioned themselves as thy have now and when the physical market ran dry."

"While the dealers can't cure or solve the physical deficit in silver, they will KNOW BEFORE ANYONE when we've run dry."

"Today's conditions suggest the price of silver is about to explode ..... If you need to sell something else to purchase silver, then do so."

Butler's whole article and the short term POS seem to hinge on one central point .... WILL THE CONTOLLING COMMERCIAL TRADERS LET THE SHORTS OUT OF THEIR POSITIONS THIS TIME OR NOT?? I can bet that they already know the answer to this question and have placed their bets accordingly.


Netking, where have you been lately?

skiYet Another Sign Of The Times ....#6682512/12/01; 15:40:57

I have watched the Bloomberg financial channel for a number of years. (It gives me a good idea of what the herd is thinking so that I can do the opposite.) Prior to 9-11, one of the data points that was always on the screen was a series of graphs on any number of markets and commodities. They included graphs of:

1. Daily graph
2. Five day graph
3. 30 day graph
4. 1 year graph

Since 9-11, they have dropped the 30 day and 1 year graphs of EVERYTHING!! At first, I wrote this off to a data stream error caused by certain markets being shut down. However, it has been months since 9-11 and this problem should have been fixed long ago. Additionally, some market never were shut down by 9-11 and their charts were not interrupted.

So why the absence of the 30 day and 1 year graphs??

Those longer term graphs of the various world stock markets were looking HORRIBLE BEYOND DESCRIPTION. Maybe they finally figured out that even Joe Sixpack would actually see what was going on all around him and ..... wake up and sell. The ACTUAL NEWS CONTENT of the bubblevision seems to have significantly deminished since 9-11 and seems to be yet another sign of the times. I thank God we have the web and sites like this one for reliable information purposes.

KodieSilver: Tarnished no more#6682612/12/01; 16:08:45

From CNN Money:

Some still fail to jump on silver's bullish bandwagon, citing the industry's traditional tendency to understate existing supplies, but other issues also are driving silver prices. Here are the relevant factors behind a possible surge in the other precious metal.

Buy silver. The words seldom roll off the tongue and generally land with a thud when they do. The last time silver soared - Warren Buffett's huge purchases in late 1997 and early 1998 notwithstanding - was more than a decade ago. The white metal is now in its 12th consecutive year of demand exceeding supply. It represents a bet on future weakness in the dollar, longerterm inflation and a prospective revaluation of the euro. This is very much a contrarian position given the present deflationary worldwide slowdown.

CanuckI'm in.#6682712/12/01; 16:24:44

Just finished the dirty deed.

Had the final bank appointment at 4:00EST. The bank lady gave me the money (thank you ma'am) I went to my favorite store and then back to the bank.

Why are you going back to the bank you moron?

I had taken the liberty of opening a third safety deposit box this morning for my return visit. In went the stash and now I am at home of beer #2 of countless.

(Please ignore all Canuck posts for the rest of the evening; surely to contain 'bar-room' type language)

I wish to thank you Cavan Man. You Sir did not discredit my crediting of your post "Re-finance now". I await now your final opportunity to discredit my crediting. In either scenario, 'be it better or worse', I will love my gold. Thank you for alerting me to the opportunity, to position myself for what I believe will be the opportunity of a lifetime. I will put a time horizon of this belief, possibly 2070. At this time, if gold is not 4 digits I will sell.

I can here to see the high diving act ........

I wish to thank Aristotle. I know you lurk best friend. I am currently reading your 5 part essay that resides in the HOF. Each time I read I get a page further before brain failure. Someday I will complete the story and someday I will ask a pertinent question.

I wish to thank Mr. Kosares. You are a champion among men. You have the sincere, lifelong vision of gold and that in itself speaks volumes for your character. If I may, you are the man.

I wish to thank everyone. Someday I wish to have your persona, intellect and forward thinking whilst the planet enjoys 'no visibility looking forward'. That sounds so bad. "We have no idea what's happening and we fear, looking forward, we won't have any idea what's happening".

The vault's safe, the beer is cold, gold may rise now!!!


slingshotCanuck#6682812/12/01; 16:58:13

Scuse Me, While I Kiss the Sky

Sometimes Goldbugs have to mello out. Not! Put on some Steppenwolf and get gold to rock.

WaveriderCanuck#6682912/12/01; 17:11:11

Good on ya, Canuck. Betcha feel better. Gotta run,
Cheers to ya,

R PowellRumors of silver shortages#6683012/12/01; 17:21:58

A few days ago silver lease rates shot up and when into backwardation but then nose dived right back down the next day. Guess what? Yup,
One month up today 1.4775 to 3.8975%
One year up today 0.2013 to 2.5587%

No, I don't know why but this is not normal. There are ongoing reports of physical shortages among small dealers in differing parts of the world and now speculation that small dealers may be ordering 1000 ounce bars from large wholesalers who just might possibly be ordering supplies from Comex. I don't know if I'd place much faith in this unless I saw the downdraw off the Comex, but, if true, it would certainly confirm suspicions of physical shortages.
A short squeeze might be nothing other than bloodletting among traders but a real, honest-to-Abe shortage of deliverable physical would be the real rocket liftoff (and would also necessitate a short squeeze).
Also, if I wanted an excellent bullish rumor, this is it, I can think of none better. On the other hand, if true, then "That's all, folks!"
Can anyone add anything on this that's more than speculation?

R PowellCanuck#6683112/12/01; 18:23:20

I'm glad to hear you're feeling better. Often it's not the doing but the deciding what to do that's difficult.
Also, my daily bread and butter work is construction, often contracted over the phone. Once I take a look at what I agreed to do in return for a set amount, I often find more than I bargained for and I often hear the words, "Well, all you gotta do is...." I have trained myself to respond, "Who do, who is going to do this doing that needs doing before I can do that which was originally agreed upon?"
Happy to hear that you agreed with yourself on exactly what was to be done and now the doing is done. Enjoy the beer!

Black BladeForbes Body Count#6683212/12/01; 19:23:45

The pace of announced layoffs has accelerated. It appears that companies are no longer waiting til after the holidays. The "Bone Pile" growth should pick up after the holidays. After all what company wants to come off as the Grinch. Retails sales appear to have fallen off significantly as consumers are getting worried about layoffs and are more concerned about saving and paying off debt instead. Some rumblings are coming out of islands of reality on Wall Street as some analysts are questioning whether this is a "typical" recession. Many Wall Street pimps thought that this recession would be in recovery this February after the average 11 month slump. Now the recovery has been pushed forward to late next year and even to 2003 by some so-called "analysts." This could very well turn out to be a long-term recession as Warren Buffett claims. Also bankruptcy filings are at all time record levels (both consumer and corporate). Enron is probably just the tip of the iceberg. There is little possitive news to suggest a recovery anytime soon. In a word - "GRIM"

- Black Blade

Cavan ManME#6683312/12/01; 19:47:20

Wednesday December 12 8:07 PM ET

Israel to Sever Ties with Arafat - Cabinet

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - Israel's security cabinet decided on Thursday to sever ties with Palestinian President Yasser Arafat
and launch military operations to arrest militants and confiscate weapons in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

The decision was reached at Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's Tel Aviv office after Palestinian gunmen killed 10 Israelis in
an ambush of a bus near a Jewish settlement. The attack followed a recent wave of deadly suicide bombings.

The cabinet said Arafat was ``directly responsible for the series of terror attacks and has therefore decided...(that) Yasser
Arafat is no longer relevant as far as the State of Israel is concerned and there will be no more contact with him.''

It also decided to ``rapidly deploy Israeli forces for military operations in cities in the West Bank and Gaza Strip to carry out
arrests and confiscate weapons.''

The cabinet decision appeared to be a step up from one taken 10 days ago after 29 Israelis were killed in a wave of suicide
bombings when Israel branded Arafat and his Palestinian Authority as supporters of a terror network.

Israeli Justice Minister Meir Sheetrit said the decision did not mean that Israel would harm the Palestinian leader.

``We have no intention to get Arafat, to assassinate Arafat or to hurt him...We simply see him as having no value as a
partner,'' he told a news conference after the cabinet meeting.

The cabinet also ordered Israel's army chief to undertake a series of unspecified military operations presented at the security

It said the army was also preparing new strategies to deal with the militant Islamic groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

The cabinet said the three gunmen involved in the bus ambush on Wednesday evening had appeared on a list of 33 wanted
militants who Israel had given to Arafat through the auspices of U.S. envoy Anthony Zinni, demanding they be arrested.

R PowellG-khan#6683412/12/01; 19:55:26

G-khan, thanks, for copying. I'm honored.
White HillsFOA#6683512/12/01; 20:13:04

In his last post on the gold trail FOA said that when the rains came and the ground opened he would return and hike on the Trail. As Jimmie Durante used to say " I am Disamboobiated" I live in the desert and nothing fits that discription. Anybody else have an idea as to the time he was talking about? thanks in advance White Hills
Black BladeApplied Materials to Cut 1,700 Jobs#6683612/12/01; 20:26:46


SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Applied Materials Inc. (Nasdaq: AMAT) on Wednesday said it will slash about 1,700 jobs, or 10 percent of its work force -- its second round of cuts this year -- amid the worst-ever slump in the microchip industry.

Black Blade: More nonessential "Bones" off to the ever-growing "Bone Pile."

Black BladeMcGraw Hill Cutting 925 Jobs#6683712/12/01; 20:31:05


NEW YORK (AP) -- The McGraw-Hill Cos. plans to shed 925 employees, or 5 percent of its work force, and restructure some operations to reduce costs and focus on its core businesses.

Black Blade: Yep, that's right - more "Bones" off to the growing "Bone Pile."

Black BladeThe St. Paul to Cut Some 750 Jobs#6683812/12/01; 20:37:09

The St. Paul Cos. to Exit Medical Malpractice Sector, Cut Jobs


MINNEAPOLIS (AP) -- The St. Paul Cos. announced Wednesday that it will stop writing medical malpractice insurance, a move that the American Medical Association said would create havoc for doctors trying to get insurance. The St. Paul writes just under 10 percent of U.S. medical malpractice insurance coverage, second only to New York-based Medical Liability Mutual Insurance Co.

Black Blade: Litigious US society forces more "Bones" to the "Bone Pile." A "Grim" Christmas for many consumers this year.

Black BladeDan River says will cut 190 jobs, close facility#6683912/12/01; 20:41:11


DANVILLE, Va., Dec 12 (Reuters) - Apparel manufacturer Dan River Inc. (NYSE:DRF) said on Wednesday it will cut 190 jobs, idle some looms and take a restructuring charge in a move the company said was designed to cut costs and better use its capacity.

Black Blade: More "Bones" that won't be patriotic by spending this Christmas as the Prez sez.

Black BladeLear will close Missouri plant, idling 120#6684012/12/01; 20:48:05


SOUTHFIELD, Mich., Dec 12 (Reuters) - Auto parts maker Lear Corp. (NYSE:LEA) said on Wednesday it will close a Missouri plant that added luxury interiors to two full-size General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GM) vans by year-end, idling about 120 workers.

Black Blade: More "grim" news as more nonessential "Bones" are given the Heave-ho instead of a "cheery" Ho-Ho. Take inventory this year and see how your finances will hold up if the "Grim Job Reaper" should drop by for a visit. Get outta debt, get cash for several months expenses, get food stores and basic necessities, and get hard assets like Gold and Silver for portfolio insurance. We live in "Interesting Times".

Black BladeSlowing economy pushes up credit card delinquencies#6684112/12/01; 20:58:34


NEW YORK, Dec 12 (Reuters) - Late payments on credit cards rose in October and are expected to keep rising in coming months, especially among high-risk borrowers, as the U.S. economy worsens and unemployment grows, analysts said. ``Joblessness will tend to slow spending and credit quality will tend to deteriorate. When joblessness rises one can expect to see this kind of deterioration of credit,'' said Jade Zelnik, chief economist at Greenwich Capital Markets Inc. ``This is no surprise, given economic conditions soured even more in the third quarter.''

Black Blade: Bankruptcies have risen to record levels according to bankruptcy tracking service We should see an acceleration here too as the recession deepens. This will not likely be the "typical" recession.

goldquestSo Who Is Incharge Of "Our" Gold?#6684212/12/01; 22:37:19

Gold still valued at$42.2222
Black BladeAngloGold to appeal ruling on Normandy bid#6684312/13/01; 00:02:29


SYDNEY, Dec 13 (Reuters) - AngloGold Ltd said on Thursday it will appeal a ruling by Australian regulators that vetoed its attempt to block Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM) from launching a rival bid for Normandy Mining Ltd (Australia:NDY.AX). Australia's Takeovers Panel said on Wednesday it was ``not convinced'' that Newmont's primary reason for launching a simultaneous bid for Canada's Franco-Nevada Mining Corp (Toronto:FN.TO) was to get its hands on Franco-Nevada's 19.99 percent stake in Normandy. AngloGold said in a statement it ``intends to appeal yesterday's decision by the Takeovers Panel.''

Black Blade: As I have been saying - it is sheer PANIC at hedger AngloGold. They "MUST" win this bidding war. The very survival of hedger AngloGold is at stake. This battle is far from over. It is the war between the hedgers vs. non-hedgers. "Interesting Times"

Black BladeAsian Markets Cratering#6684412/13/01; 00:08:48

The Asian markets are sinking into the red tonight. US market futures are also sliding solidly into negative territory. The Nikkei gives back yesterday's gains and then some.
Black BladeFBI arrests JDL chairman, member#6684512/13/01; 00:29:53


JEWISH DEFENSE LEAGUE Chairman Irv Rubin, 56, and a member of the group, Earl Krugel, 59, both of Los Angeles, were arrested Tuesday night after the last component of the bomb - explosive powder -was delivered to Krugel's home, U.S. Attorney John S. Gordon said. Other bomb components and weapons were seized at Krugel's home. Authorities said the plot targeted a mosque in Culver City and the office of Rep. Darrell Issa, a grandson of Lebanese immigrants.

The freshman Republican was joined by several Jewish lawmakers who decried the JDL and supported Issa. "They meet every definition of a terrorist group," Rep. Jerry Nadler said of the JDL. Issa, whose paternal grandfather was Lebanese, was apparently targeted because his heritage and a recent trip he made with other members of Congress to the Middle East in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks. During the trip, Issa was initially was barred from an Air France flight because of suspicions aroused because of his surname.

Black Blade: As if Islamic terrorists weren't enough, now Al Qaeda counterparts - Jewish Defense League terrorists plot a reign of terror against American citizens on US soil and conspire to murder a US Congressman. What next? These attacks on America just have to have a negative effect on the economy. A recent poll suggests that 85% of Americans expect more terrorist attacks on US soil. Not good for consumer confidence. "Interesting Times"

CanuckEuro Countdown#6684612/13/01; 03:58:30

19 days

US$/Euro 0.898 Unch.

Gold 274.25 -0.30

CanuckMore Enron#6684712/13/01; 05:03:13


"When things get really tough, hard assets are the kind you can depend upon," says S&P's Shipman. That's something Enron's whiz-kid financiers failed to appreciate.

Black BladeEuropean Markets in the Red#6684812/13/01; 05:42:41

European markets are awash in red.
Black BladeAetna Cuts 6,000 Jobs, Takes Charge#6684912/13/01; 05:49:24


The Hartford, Connecticut-based company said it will eliminate 6,000 jobs from the 37,000 workers on the rolls at the end of September. Most of the cuts will come from targeted eliminations, and the rest through attrition, Aetna said.

Black Blade: "Bone Pile" growth picks up again. Look for more layoffs as corporate earnings continue to decline.

HenriGandalf the White#6685012/13/01; 07:11:53

You have e-mail.

Thanks for noting your clinkery

Cavan ManTake heart Canuckster.....#6685112/13/01; 07:21:00

There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to fortune;
Omitted, all the voyage of their life
Is bound in the shallows and in miseries....
And we must take the current when it serves
Or lose our ventures.

William Shakespeare

Cavan ManBlack Blade...#6685212/13/01; 07:29:10

....I am beginning to fret.....

12/13 09:20
Qwest to Cut 7,000 More Jobs; Expects $400
Mln-$600 Mln Charge
By Bob Kuzbyt

Denver, Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Qwest Communications International Inc.
expects to reduce its workforce by 7,000 more jobs, to 55,000 employees by

The company anticipates costs of $400 million to $600 million in the fourth
quarter for severance costs and asset writedowns.

Source: Bloomberg

HenriMythical 66789#6685312/13/01; 07:43:12

Hi Michael,
Yes I do live in PA on the eastern fringe of Amish country midway between Philapa and Lancaster.

I belong to a hunting preserve in western/central PA on the bench above Sinking Valley east of Tyrone and on the other side of the mountain. Like hunting 'tussy and Decker's Hollow as well.

Brief view of a large rack buck there in the fog but then over the edge of the bench and away. Maybe he'll be back next year.

Tommy PBone pile gets turned up a notch!!#6685412/13/01; 09:17:47

To say the least.
Ray PattenWill Homestake stockholders reject Barrick merger?#6685512/13/01; 09:23:29

Hopefully, the recent strength in Homestake's stock is because when the votes are counted tomorrow, the stockholders will vote "no" to the merger. If that happens, it could be the start of the bull market in Gold.
The hedgers will realize that they can't buy unhedged companies to cover their shorts.

site stewardINSIDE FOREIGN AFFAIRS (Update): U.S. envoy to Mideast fed up with stalling#6685612/13/01; 09:55:30 Holger Jensen writes:

By branding his Palestinian Authority a "terror-supporting entity" until it stops the bombers, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has placed the onus of protecting Israel's security squarely on the shoulders of the Palestinian leader.

But Palestinians, who believe they are waging a legitimate struggle against Israeli occupation, ask why the occupied should be held responsible for the security of the occupier. An even better question would be why Sharon expects Arafat to do something he could not do himself.
(click URL for full article)

site stewardINSIDE FOREIGN AFFAIRS (Update): Pressure mounting to go after Saddam#6685712/13/01; 09:56:47 Holger Jensen writes:

Last week, 10 leading lawmakers sent Bush a letter saying: "As we work to clean up Afghanistan, it is imperative that we plan to eliminate the threat from Iraq. This December will mark three years since United Nations inspectors last visited Iraq. There is no doubt that since that time, Saddam Hussein has reinvigorated his weapons programs. Reports indicate that biological, chemical and nuclear programs continue apace and may be back to pre-Gulf War levels. We believe we must directly confront Saddam, sooner rather than later."

However, Vince Cannistraro, a former CIA counterterrorism chief, believes it would be "a huge mistake" to go after Saddam. Those calling for his head, he said, want to finish what the Gulf War left unfinished, but have no idea of the cost -- an invasion involving thousands of U.S. ground troops that could become "a bloody mess" while alienating much of the world and undermining U.S. efforts to fight terrorism elsewhere.
(click URL for full article)

site stewardThe previous two articles both suggest we could be in for rough sailing ahead#6685812/13/01; 10:03:05

"For as long as cannons have thundered, they have echoed with the sound of men yearning for gold." -- R. Strauss
site stewardHEADLINE: Addicited to oil#6685912/13/01; 11:07:19

America's dependence on oil imports from the Middle East has led it to see the stability of the region as a vital security interest. In defending this interest over the years, its military and political entanglements have grown more costly and more complicated. In some ways, it is argued, these policies may have become self-defeating. America's military presence in Saudi Arabia, for instance, may make the region less stable, not more. All of which leads some to conclude that America and the West should henceforth minimise their involvement—economic, political and military.

Is this right? Put so baldly, no.

The key fact is this: Saudi Arabia has enormous reserves of oil that can be extracted at very low cost. Regardless of western policies, its oil will flow on to the market and, in effect, set the world price. This makes "dependence" on Saudi Arabia an inescapable reality for years to come.
- - - -
(an interesting article which can be read in full at the URL given above)

megatronOut of the blue#6686012/13/01; 11:47:11

One of the totally discounted, and therefore extremely worrisome, threats to the global economy is an agricultural
collapse. When any major factor gets that little coverage or thinking it's only a matter of time. My personal opinion as to how the US and the West has avoided debt collapse to this point is the extended amount of luck dodging mother nature. When a economic downturn lands on the wrong 'square' at the same time look out. We are due for a visit from 'reality' any year now, and Mr. Kondratief does not like to pre-announce his arrival. This time he will be 'fashionably late'.

RobotGuyWho told them?#6686112/13/01; 12:00:56

Somehow the bull market lemmings are starting to catch on. Soon we will see the bear market lemmings. If someone says "Gold!" we might even see PM lemmings.
RobotGuyOhh, here's one fellow!#6686212/13/01; 13:31:25

...........What to buy? Johnson, who has the liberty to say such things at Bernie Schaeffer's research shop, likes gold stocks. "Our timing indicators are telling us that investors will soon have reason to get defensive," he said Wednesday. The put-call option contract ratio for the gold sector remains at some of its highest levels of the year, meaning that investors are betting their beans against gold shares. Johnson and other "quants" like to see lemmings lining the cliff, hoofing the wrong way on an industry.

They're starting to spill the beans! Hope this isn't a repost.

EconoclastSpeaking of Oil/ Saudi Arabia /Terrorism#6686312/13/01; 14:24:26

If anybody had any doubts that our country (reflected by the current administration) has sold itself out for oil, those doubts should be erased since Sept. 11.
Trial balloons keep being floated out to attack Iraq, or Somalia (again), or Sudan, etc. etc. And what about all the tough rhetoric coming out of the presidents mouth--"if you're not with us, you're against us", blah blah blah.
Every link between 9-11 and ALL countries (including Afghanistan) is only rumor, conjecture, or heresay.
EXCEPT Saudi Arabia.
15 of the 20 hijackers were Saudi Arabian, OBL is Saudi, their govt has not been cooperative, a Saudi sheik is even on this new "video"! etc., etc.
Yet we have not heard much against Saudi Arabia from the media or the govt.
Looks like it's business as usual for the liars and hypocrites who've taken over.
This post is extremely out-of-character for anything I want to post or read on this forum, yet I'm losing that "patriotic feeling" fast.
Maybe I need to go buy a new SUV.

As far as economics (to get back on subject)...

I think we all need to ponder TG's prediction that Gold and the Dollar will Rise Together. I read those words but still find myself expecting the dollar to crash as this whole thing plays out. In the end, it will. But after pondering such subjects as increased dollar demand in order to extinguish dollar debt, as well as a general shortage of dollars as the Euro is used more (do you really think the FED/Govt will let the float come back to our shores?), his/her statement makes more and more sense.

R PowellGood hunting Richard 640#6686412/13/01; 14:51:37

Did we see the stock markets reacting to bad news by going down today instead of up. Maybe Lance Lewis at Prudentbear was right last Friday when he said the economic news might actually be influencing the markets again.
If so, the news in the near future may tell us which way the markets climb or tumble. Dow at 5000 by mid 2002 equals POG at $_,_ _ _._ _? A pound of silver, of course, will be valued at half the kingdom. It may happen very, very fast. How many in Argentina would have believed, just a week ago, that their money is not safe in a bank.
Note of interest to those familar with Richard 640, he stated this morning that the whole of his >$500,000 return from CD investment will be now invested in physical gold.
However, the gambler in him may steal a little for a further grub stack in the paper game. None of my business, of course, but I wish him well with both and think both will be winners. Good luck to all, perhaps soon.

adminOrder Deadline: 18-karat jewelry#6686512/13/01; 14:56:11

We want to first of all thank all those who have already availed themselves of our jewelry selection for the holidays. I've taken a look at some of the pieces that have gone through here and this stuff is stunning.

This is to inform you that, due to logistical considerations, we will not be able to take orders after the 19th and still get the jewelry to you before the big day.

So if you are thinking about this as a gift, you should get your order in ASAP.

Also, we got word that the supplier is already sold out of some items.

Please call if you have an interest. We don't want you to be closed out of this option.

R PowellEconoclast#6686612/13/01; 15:01:58

You stated that "I think we all need to ponder TG's prediction that Gold and the dollar will Rise Together."
Question please good sir, Is TG specific at all as to whether the dollar's rise refers to an increase in its value or an increase in the actual number of dollars?

EconoclastR Powell#6686712/13/01; 15:33:46

I have no idea where to find that statement in his writings in order to find the context.
However, I seem to recall through his discussions that he was talking in generalized trading terms, i.e.,
the dollar is 115.82 now, that number will rise in tandem with the POG. Definately contrary to established thinking regarding gold/dollar relationship. In a way, that negative correlation with previous economic history is appealing to me as I believe that although history repeats itself, it never does so in the same way. And the dollar hasn't had a contender while all the "rules" were being written in the twentieth century.
That was a great contest entry by the way.

goldquestEconoclast Ref: Saudis 14:24:26#6686812/13/01; 15:43:59

Yes, business as usual! There might be a message here though! If you are going to sell race horses to the Saudis, request payment in GOLD!
The CoinGuyGov Bonds..US or Foreign?#6686912/13/01; 17:25:48

Thought this article might be of use to some on the discussion forum.

The CoinGuy

R PowellEconoclast#6687012/13/01; 17:30:45

Thanks, twice.
I agree entirely with your idea of the inverse gold/dollar link. That's why I was wondering if TG's statement refered to the creation of more dollars as opposed to value.
Maybe someone more familar with his thoughts will clarify this.

R PowellQuotes#6687112/13/01; 18:03:31

I guess like most I relied on the site for quotes, especially long-term metals' option prices but these are no longer available. Are there any traders among us who know of another source?
Thanks Rich

skiMegatron #66860 ..... Luck#6687212/13/01; 18:04:26

Megatron #66860 ... You said:

"My Personal opinion as to how the US and the West has avoided debt collapse to this point is the extended amount of LUCK dodging mother nature."

After many years of studying the art of Investing, I have found it valuable to re-evaluate my belief system in an effort get better and better at this difficult game. After all, if I am operating on a faulty belief system, my conclusions will have an element of error built into them.

With no harm intended, I would have to challange your apparent belief in the idea of LUCK...

Many years ago I believed myself to be "a lucky person." Then, during the course of a single year, I encountered an inordinate number of circumstances where I simply should have been dead. In retrospect, because of the sheer number of near death experiences that I encountered, I concluded that my being alive was far beyond any possible realm of luck. This caused me to give some deeper thought to the whole idea of luck.

Where is luck found? Were does it hide and what would it look like if you found it? Does it have a molecular structure like other elements? How can I get more of it if I so desire? What would it cost and who would I pay? Who holds the keys to luck and where does he live? If it is all around some of us, why hasn't it ever been detected on any scientific measuring device? ..... I think you get the picture. (just as an aside, the word LUCK does not even appear in the Bible.)

I reached a conclusion about luck that has now adjusted the way that I think about everything ..... including investing and economics ... THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS LUCK. IT SIMPLY DOES NOT EXHIST.

Americans normally throw the word luck around like it was candy. We attribute the outcome of practically any unusual event to luck .... or its opposite ... being unlucky. Yet, there is no such thing.

In place of luck, I now have to dig for deeper answers. And many times, after a lot of digging ... I still don't come up with an answer. But at least I don't come up with the WRONG answer (luck) anymore.

Megatron, I'm not trying to be a crackpot or single you out for ill treatment. Its really a small issue. This is just been an attempt to help all of us at this forum refine and sharpen our investment expertise.

As a final footnote. For a few years, I taught a class on investing to a few people. I would start every new class with a lengthy True .. False test. Every question on the test appeared to be True but in reality, all the answers were false. The purpose of the exercise was simple. To convince the class that a great many things that they thought they knew about investing were absolutely wrong and to be willing to change those errant views as the class progressed.


CanuckGoldman Sachs#6687312/13/01; 18:26:36

I received a phone call tonight from a semi-reputable source that G.S. has begun to cover short positions in silver with physical.

Can anyone confirm?

sector@Econoclast Saudi Arabia Has Been Pumping at Record Rates...#6687412/13/01; 18:41:05

...because Washington carefully explained the alternatives.

And just this week effectlivly moved the 82 Airborn, the 101rst and Central Command to Kuwait to back up that "explanation".

The military movements have nothing to do with Iraq.

Black BladeQwest adds 7000 to "Bone Pile"#6687512/13/01; 18:42:14

Yep, no sooner had I left to go help the Kalifornian Grasshoppers out with a bit of methane to keep warm this winter, I hear on the radio that Qwest slashes 7,000 "Bones" from the roster. Unfortunately for me I have a nominal position in Qwest that I "inherited" when Qwest merged with US West. Oh well, I decided to roll the dice. Anyway as soon as the shares readjust they are good as gone and I get a tax loss sale. It was an interesting gamble but enough of the "New Paradigm" silliness. On to bigger fish to fry and to get defensive as this recession deepens. After the new year it will be time to adjust the portfolio to a more defensive posture (with PMs and defensive issues).

- Black Blade

The Invisible HandTo hedge or not to hedge - a religious question#6687612/13/01; 18:49:20,,37-2001575099,00.html

The industry remains divided, in some cases religiously so, on the question of whether to hedge or not to hedge gold.
Good article for those who like me don't yet get the point of the AngloGold, Barrick Gold, Newmont, Gold Fields and Harmony saga.

Black BladeRecord Drop In Retail Sales!#6687712/13/01; 18:56:47

As I have been pointing out these last few weeks. The numbers are at the link above. This trend should continue and many companies will suffer a dismal Christmas as retail sales don't add up to increased earnings. Another result will be an acceleration in "Bone Pile" growth as companies struggle to remain viable. In a word - "GRIM"

- Black Blade

tedwquotes#6687812/13/01; 19:01:19

R Powell

Try the greater pacific trading site

sourdoughIf only they would exchange their yen for Canadian before they buy gold#6687912/13/01; 19:01:51

Yen seen plunging to 130-140 level

Further drop could be accompanied by fall in other Asian currencies: Mr Yen

Anthony Rowley

THE Japanese yen, which is already at an eight-month low, could plunge to 130 or 140 to the US dollar given the 'dismal condition' of Japan's economy, former Japanese senior finance official Eisuke Sakakibara, who had been known as Mr Yen, said in Tokyo yesterday.

His comments came even as Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa suggested that Japan should try to guide the yen lower if it shows signs of strengthening. Mr Shiokawa's comments saw the yen weaken slightly yesterday to 126.18 against the dollar and 113.31 against the euro. But if Mr Sakakibara' predictions come true, as they often have in the past, the yen's recent weakness is only the start of a much steeper slide.

Another Japanese official, who wished to remain anonymous, suggested to The Business Times that the yen could easily sink as low as 150 or 160 to the dollar before stabilising.

Japan has been seeking to guide the yen lower in recent weeks in order to ease acute and growing deflationary pressure on its economy as the price of goods and services in Japan falls in tandem with the price of assets such as land and real estate.

Bank of Japan governor Masaru Hayami admitted to the Japanese Parliament yesterday that 'we cannot deny the possibility that Japan could fall into a deflationary spiral'.

However, he effectively ruled out the possibility that the central bank could start buying US and other foreign bonds as a means to weaken the yen and to inject additional liquidity into Japan's financial system.

'The BOJ is not allowed to take policies aimed at guiding currencies in a certain direction,' he said. 'It would be legally difficult for the BOJ to buy foreign bonds in the market.'

A leading US economist, Adam Posen, senior fellow at the Washington-based Institute for International Economics, suggested in Tokyo earlier this week that the US government might be prepared to tolerate a weak yen as part of the price of averting an economic and financial system crisis in Japan. He also foresaw that at least some of Japan's Asian neighbours might prefer yen depreciation rather than a Japanese economic collapse.

Mr Sakakibara, who now heads the Global Security Research Centre at Tokyo's Keio University, acknowledged that further yen depreciation could be accompanied by a fall in the value of other Asian currencies such as the Korean won and the Malaysian ringgit.

Provided China maintains the value of its currency, these developments could bring about 'effective appreciation' of the renminbi, which some are anxious to see in the light of China's fast-growing competitiveness as an exporter and a destination for foreign direct investment.

This is contrary to the scenario offered by other leading economists, however, who have suggested that China might take advantage of its entry into the World Trade Organization to devalue the yuan.

Mr Sakakibara, who was speaking at a conference organised by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank Institute, urged East Asian countries to consider greater 'intra-regional coordination' of their exchange rates to avert the kind of currency turbulence which had proved so damaging in the past.

LimitUpHANG ON#6688012/13/01; 19:23:26

The Tsunami is coming and it can't be stopped. High ground is Au & Ag.
Black BladeIT Group lays off 400, sees more cuts in 2002#6688112/13/01; 19:26:20


PITTSBURGH, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Infrastructure services provider the IT Group Inc. (NYSE:ITX) said on Thursday it has begun implementing a recovery plan that has included more than 400 job cuts in the fourth quarter to date, with more job cuts planned in 2002.

Black Blade: More nonessential "Bones" shown the way to the "Bone Pile."

Black BladeGM to Idle 4,050 Workers Next Week#6688212/13/01; 19:30:31


General Motors Says 4,050 Workers Will Be Laid Off Next Week for Several Days Due to Soft Market.

Black Blade: Zero interest rate effects appear to be wearing off. More nonessential "Bones" driven to the "Bone Pile."

Black BladeBoeing to cut up to 1,500 jobs in Philadelphia#6688312/13/01; 19:35:02


SEATTLE, Dec 13 (Reuters) - Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA) said on Thursday it would cut 1,000 to 1,500 jobs at its underutilized Philadelphia helicopter plant by mid-2004 and sell some related real estate in a bid to boost profits.

Black Blade: More nonessential "Bones" shown the exit to the "Bone Pile."

R Powelltedw#6688412/13/01; 19:39:00

Bingo! Exactly what I need, thanks buddy.
Black BladeStanley Furniture closes plant, cuts 400 jobs#6688512/13/01; 19:42:04


The company said the closing is part of its plan to expand offshore sourcing, realign manufacturing capacity and lower operating costs. Closing of the plant is expected to cut costs by $4 million to $5 million annually and cut about 400 of the company's 3,100 employees.

Black Blade: The pace of layoffs should accelerate after the holidays. This is not a "typical" recession. As Warren Buffett says - "long extended recession." Get out of debt, have enough cash to meet expenses, get food stores and basic necessities, get Gold and Silver portfolio insurance, and hope that your family will not be adversely affected by the deepening recession.

Black BladeRiggs National to cut staff#6688612/13/01; 19:47:52


WASHINGTON, D.C. Dec 13 (Reuters) - Regional bank Riggs National Corp. (Nasdaq: RIGS) said on Thursday it will cut about 125 jobs and take $27.5 million in charges, resulting in a fourth quarter loss, as it moves to lift profits in the weak economy.

Black Blade: Yep, even banker "Bones." Not to mention dozens of smaller companies that layoff workers daily as this recession gets much worse.

The Invisible HandRow developing between ECB on the one hand #6688712/13/01; 20:07:46

and Banque de France and Bundesbank on the invisible?

Bundesbank president Ernst Welteke publicly challenged European Central Bank president Wim Duisenberg's claims to be the authentic voice of the single currency.

He said that the ECB had to explain its decisions on interest rates to 12 different countries. "That isn't feasible if Duisenberg speaks alone." Though he acknowledged a chorus of differing views from the ECB could cause confusion he said the "dilemma is almost impossible to solve",11306,617916,00.html

[Governor of the Bank of France and Duisenberg's successor as ECB president) Trichet: "We face a unique challenge. You must remember that each member has to explain policy and decisions in their own language, and in the context of their own culture. If we don't explain our policies, we lose the confidence of the public. But confidence is high: polls show around 70 per cent endorse our policies and have confidence in the Bank of France and the ECB."

uponroofJapan/Fishing#6688812/13/01; 20:14:13

Japan update...

BOJ having a little debate these days about buying foreign bonds. One of the nine members came out recently and criticized the board for 'poor monetary decisions'. He is pushing the purchase of foreign bonds and currency swaps to improve liquidity and weaken the Yen. This 'Mr Nakahara' also explained that the US was in favor of such measures.

Sounds like the "helpers" have found a friend.

Not to worry. Several (almost all) remaining board members have come out against the idea. Yesterday the board's big mahoff, Governor Masaru Hayami called such measures illegal.

BOJ law allows the central bank to buy foreign bonds as part of its management of the nation's foreign exchange reserves. But the BOJ is not allowed to intentionally manipulate currency rates without the permission of the Ministry of Finance (MOF), which sets foreign exchange policy. Senior MOF officials have repeatedly expressed their opposition to foreign-bond buying.

Hummmmmm. "Helpers" perhaps need to attend the MOF office Christmas party. Time to Americanize this stuff about illegal currency manipulation.

Also from Japan On the Martin Armstrong front:

Friday, December 14, 2001
Japan Firms To Receive Y85bn For Princeton Bond Losses

TOKYO (Nikkei)--Japanese companies suing Republic New York Securities Corp. and HSBC Holdings Plc for losses incurred from the default of Princeton bonds are likely to accept a payment of about 85 billion yen to settle the case, The Nihon Keizai Shinbun learned Thursday.

The defendants, including Republic New York Securities and its parent HSBC Holdings, will pay about 85 billion yen -- equivalent to about 80% of the losses incurred by Japanese firms.

Japanese companies and financial institutions purchased instruments called Princeton Bonds in the early 1990s via the now-defunct Tokyo branch of Cresvale International Ltd. Cresvale's parent company, Princeton Economics International Ltd., set up a paper company, which issued the bonds for private placement.

Princeton Economics guaranteed the principal and interest payments of one of the bond issues, which provided returns of just several percentage points. The other higher-yielding tranche did not come with any guarantees, but offered a return of several tens of percentage points.

While many of the Japanese investors purchased the bonds in a bid to diversify their investment assets, others did so to hide and postpone their losses.

Cresvale told Japanese investors that the funds raised would be invested in safe U.S. bond instruments. But Martin Armstrong, chairman of Princeton Economics, is alleged to have used the funds in risky derivative transactions.

After a brief profit run, the losses began to balloon. Armstrong then instructed Republic New York Securities to hide the losses from Japanese investors and began making payments on existing bonds with new funds from investors..."

"risky derivative transactions" funny how that phrase surfaces whenever TSHTF.


Was away the last few days fishing in upstate PA. A nice secluded lake there far from the main path. During dinner at the local establishment the Game Warden, Bob, began describing a secret hot spot in the lake. My ears up, I asked him if he'd like to go out in the morning. He agreed.

The oars hitting the water sent ripples over the glass still lake. In the distance you could hear the water fowl begin to call the mornings wake up. Pristine.

Bob, began discribing his abundant lake experiences. I listened as we gained on his location. Soon we were near the middle of the lake and he whispered "This is it".

The anchor slipped silently to the bottom. Bob quickly and deftly rigged his tackle and began casting. With my back to him, I opened my box, removed a brick with a stick of dynamite, Lit it, and threw it.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!! Bob, struggling to maintain balance, turned and screamed "What was that!!" Soon dead fish were floating all over the surface. I wasted no time collecting them with my net. Bob, incredulous, began to cite me with several memorized violations in very passionate terms.

I lit another stick, handed it to Bob the Game Warden and asked, "Now, are you going to fish....or talk?"

Newmont, busy collecting ounces, just handed a stick to Godsell. The WGC 'Warden', busy citing violations, has a stick 'losing fuse' in his hand. Hey Bobby, stop talking. Time to fish...or blow up.

site stewardMore on the development of China's new gold market#6688912/13/01; 20:21:41

From the Far Eastern Economic Review:

The People's Bank of China will retain its role as manager of the official gold reserves and will also supervise the new exchange. The bank began a couple of years ago to set the gold price on a regular basis and to track the world price more closely. There is however still the question of how to trade gold at a world dollar price, but in a currency which is not yet freely convertible. So long as the renminbi is linked to the U.S. dollar, everything is fine. But there are little whispers of the need for another renminbi devaluation to offset falling exports. A dollar-denominated asset like gold could look like a good home for spare renminbi cash in the interim.
So how will it work? Firstly, there will only be spot trades for physical delivery.....
It is likely that a sales tax on gold deals in the exchange will be waived, at least for the time being. Taxation put a blight on China's fledgling diamond and silver markets.

(See URL above)

Monetary and market shifts having international significance are taking place in the world today. Is your understanding and your portfolio keeping pace?


goldquestNow We Know!#6689012/13/01; 20:24:33

We don't need gold or silver, it's going to be all E-MONEY!
Pizz@R Powell - Econoclast Gold & Dollar Rise togetther#6689112/13/01; 21:29:58

My interpretation is value, not quantity.

The rise in the dollar is only in relation to other fiat.
Keep in mind that FRN in circulation are trading units bearing no interest. US bonds are interest bearing debt. They are not the same animal.

Now if you are a foreign country (i.e. Japan) what are you holding in reserve? US Bonds. The value of your currency may in part be in response to your economy, but the ultimate value or strength of any currency in circulation over the long term is the backing.

Now with bonds dropping in value, i.e. higher perceived US inflation, (default???) etc., the value of currencies with US bonds as reserve will drop against all currencies (Including the $)in relation to the quality, mix etc. of the reserves.

Gold is inversly related to the value of debt (bonds) - not currency per se. As Gold rises the $ will rise as other currencies devalue due to their US debt losing value in reserve.

TG played the big picture. The dollar will not drop in realtion to other fiat until the markets have an alternative to the bonds in reserve. This will probably be the Euro and Gold.

Sometimes we forget that the only thing left backing the dollar is the shear volume in circulation. It sure as heck ain't because of its intrinsic value. The $ benefits even to the detriment of its debt, there is nothing to replace it-YET.

Hope I'm making sense. (Keep buying physical - TG makes sense.)


The CoinGuyPizz, RPowell All...#6689212/13/01; 23:03:52

Anyone find the "Gold and the Dollar will rise together" in FOA's writings? That sounds like old Another to me. I'd like to see it in its proper context. I'm done with the days work, might do a little digging myself.

On another note, my dog(Viszla) was out of bones, thought I'd cruise by the old Country General tonight, because they have the best selection, and pretty good prices too. Was a little shocked they were in the final throes of a Liquidation sale. The shelves were pretty much empty. I asked the clerk if "Country General was completely going out of business", she said no, they were just downsizing and closing a percentage of their stores...I'm thinking BB might have to change that "pile" to bluff, mountain etc...


The CoinGuy

The Invisible Hand"[Today]'s going to be an ugly day"#6689312/14/01; 01:33:47

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (AP)- A key negotiator in cash-strapped Argentina's arduous negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (news - web sites) is expected to hand in his resignation Friday, reports said, raising more questions over the fate of South America's second-largest economy.

if confirmed, the resignation would be another serious blow to the increasingly unpopular government of President Fernando de la Rua and his economy minister. Marx, 49, is probably the member of Argentina's debt negotiating team most respected by Wall Street.
Crippled by nearly four years of recession, Argentina is struggling to make payments on its $132 billion debt. Failure to pay would spark the world's biggest ever sovereign debt default.
Argentina's next debt installment - worth more than $700 million - is due Friday.
``Tomorrow's going to be an ugly day,'' said Albero Bernal, head of Latin American research at New York-based consultants IDEAglobal, said late Thursday. ``Marx leaving is definitely bad news.''

Saxulum^uponroof msg 66888 .../fishing#6689412/14/01; 04:30:13

Just to let you know that I'm back home again, after being released from the EM at the local hospital.

The last thing I remember was drinking a nice cup of creamy cappucino while reading your fishing story.
Apparently this unfortunate combination caused a cascading series of complications in my bodily functions leading to a acute non-alcoholic delirium hilariosis…

Anyway, thanks for the best laugh in a long time!

CanuckEuro Countdown#6689512/14/01; 04:42:05

18 days

US$/Euro 0.902 +0.008

Gold 274.95 +0.50

KnallgoldAnglo#6689612/14/01; 05:22:31

The saga continues...
Black BladeEuropean Markets Lower#6689712/14/01; 05:51:52

European markets are lower again today.
White RoseSilver 1 month Lease Rates way up#6689812/14/01; 06:09:05

Silver is moving. The price is up. Yesterday, 1 month silver lease rate was about 3.5%, now close to 11%. Something is up. Spot prices are popping up too. I think Kitco will get lots of hits today.
Black BladeSilver Lease Rate and POS Higher#6689912/14/01; 06:29:48

I can't find a second confirmation yet, however, silver rates appear to be in extreme backwardation and the price jumped 9 cents higher this morning so far. It doesn't look as though it is related to industrial demand considering the current state of the economy. Something behind the scenes perhaps like Warren Buffett refusing to renew his silver lending (his currently loaned silver is rumored to be due for return to the warehouse) or some new accumulation? No real news yet but it could be "Interesting." Perhaps the US Mint is beginning to make purchases for the Silver Eagle program as the cupboard at the Mint is bare. "Interesting Times"

- Black Blade

GalearisRe silver lease rates#6690012/14/01; 09:28:28

Buffett closing the tap or the ghost of the Buffett spike?

The spike in silver today (the most dramatic so far)and the lease rate action could well be what sir Black Blade describes. Consider that most of the leasing action is LIKELY from private accounts, the largest being that held by Buffett, but the other holders out there are becoming increasingly nervous about the increasingly common (now) more mainstream news of shortages out there. Is Buffett holding out on the metal? Who really knows? One dealer friend I talked to recently reported that he has done more business in physical silver sales in the past month than he has done in the previous six. He too is presently out of bar silver and only has coin left in stock. He predicts that he will seen none walking in the door either to replenish his empty shelves. The new buyers were mostly strangers to him. In other words, the word is getting out there about shortages in the physical silver stocks.

Other anecdotal evidence: it has been reported recently on USAGOLD (ski?)that even 1000 oz bar silver is selling well.

The other thing that is likely going and increasing the murk factor is the "ghost of the Buffett spike phenominon" -it is the season for a little bounce based on Buffetts corner on physical supplies about this time three years ago. If one adds a little additional worry caused by the shortages news, then spot and lease rates spike up a little more dramatically.

Is this "IT"?! Is this the real thing and silver is off and running like a bull? I have been fooled too often to even hazard a guess, but will say, to play it safe, no, "they" are still in control.

I talked to my brother last night - I am doing this more and more these days as the "signs of the times" become more and more interesting. His take on the current silver market and what we discussed on the phone was posted over on the kitco forum this morning. FWIW I agree 100% with his words:

rhody (silver lease rates) ID#411230:
Copyright © 2001 rhody/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved
@ Frustrated: The crazy lease rates for silver
seem to indicate that the shorts holding the
lease overhang ( possibly 1 billion ozs ) are
shifting their leasing activities to the
9 month and 1 year terms, as the drop in one
year rates is about the same as the increase
in the later term rates. They are rolling over
their leases, rather than covering in the
open ( spot ) market. In this way, the tightness
in silver supplies translates to a rise in lease
rates of 500% while the tightness is reflected
in spot metal prices by an appreciation in spot
of only 4%. ( Isn't manipulation wonderful? Sorry
if I sound like Ted Butler here, but I think that
Ted Butler is absolutely right. )
As always: FWIW. And I don't think anyone should apologize for thematically sounding like Ted Butler.

Best regards,


HenriSpot gold up +$3.00#6690112/14/01; 09:31:00

Is it starting?
Econoclaston "Gold and the Dollar will rise together"...#6690212/14/01; 09:58:54

I went scrolling through the "Gold Trail" until my eyes started to get tired. I used to read those messages one at a time as they were delivered. I did not realize the sheer volume of TG's writings. I am now looking forward to re-reading it all in my spare time to see what I can get out of it all.
Obviously, TG writes of a coming hyper-inflation (more, many more dollars) with a corresponding crash in the value of the dollar.

The "Gold and Dollar will rise together" statement and explanation could not be found. I always understood it in my head from whenever or wherever I saw it to be a characterization of events at the BEGINNING (only) of the manifestation of his/her scenario. To support this view I found this quote from June 28, 2001,

"On the subject of dollar strength:

This is not the first time investors have picked the bones of a dying economy. The examples are there for reference. During the fall of Rome, traders flocked into the city to trade property and do deals,,,,,,, even as hell approached from the north. Today, the world is biding up our currency in the same insane attempt to catch the last trade before the golden goose is gone."

There we have it. Pages and pages of writing on the hyper-inflation and crash of dollar value with an allusion to a very short=term phenomenon of both rising together taking place at the beginning of his scenario.

RobotGuy@Henri#6690312/14/01; 10:29:50

As investors realize the end of consumer spending to aid a decaying market is drawing near (Christmas) more individuals will seek refuge and stability for their investments (Gold). Many people insist that seeking gold as a safe haven for storing wealth is a thing of the past, but I find it quite amusing that throughout history people will continue to run for gold every time. I believe that despite what many anylists say, the precious resiliant metal will always be sought after for it's rarity. It may be happening, and if many of the people in this forum are correct, it will be an upward trend for quite some time. Many of us may look back years from now and say "If I had only purchased more when it was so much cheaper."

I think it may be starting my friend.

Gandalf the White< ; - )>>#6690412/14/01; 10:43:04

GOLDEN Sleigh bells ring -- CLINK, CLINK, while
Time flys and as Aragorn III advised -- Watch out for the THUNDER in the Night! Call MK soon.

admin18-karat jewelry -- Order Deadline: December 19th #6690512/14/01; 10:50:43

We want to first of all thank all those who have already availed themselves of our jewelry selection for the holidays. I've taken a look at some of the pieces that have gone through here and this stuff is stunning.

This is a fair warning that, due to logistical considerations, we will not be able to take orders after the 19th and still get the jewelry to you before the big day.

So if you are thinking about this as a gift, you should get your order in ASAP.

Also, we got word that Termine & Winer is already sold out of some items.

Please call if you have an interest. We don't want you to be closed out of this option.

BelgianThe Big Picture :#6690612/14/01; 10:54:42

- World GDP : 40 Trillion $
- World Debt : 400 Trillion $
- World Gold : 1 Trillion $
- US Debt-Growth : 15% per year (average past 40 yrs)
- US GDP-Growth : 3,2% per year

>>> Barbarians at the gate with the widening rift between the physical economy and the financial economy or aggregates ! <<<

*BBB* = Boom >>> Bubble >>> Bust

The *american dream* will face a radical reorganization of the financial system !

More Debt and more Paper for a declining amount of Gold.
How much more debt can be carried by how much more paper ?
I don't want any paper anymore...and you ?

Belgian@ Henri#6690712/14/01; 11:30:32

No Sir, 3$ plus is NOT a start or whatsoever! Sept. '99 WA spike from 253$ to 338$ had the allures of the start that is to be expected. The dollar (index) is losing ground and the SHS-pattern is likely in place, with the decline starting to possibly break 105/100 major support.
POG is simply compensating for this dollar-decline and therefore not the real Gold-Revaluation as such !
Positive is that the hedged goldproducers are lagging the unhedgded ones. I'm sure you already have clinked the Physical, during the past 2 years of bottoming of the precious. Cheers to you.

Tommy PAdding more to the Bone Pile#6690812/14/01; 12:02:29

Sorry for the bad news!
site stewardLatest LBMA clearing figures, as reported by WGC's Rhona O'Connell#6690912/14/01; 12:04:25

The London Bullion Market Association has reported clearing turnover figures for November; the gold transferred average 18.0M ounces per day (560 tonnes), giving an average daily value of transfer of US$4.9Bn. This turnover is an increase on October, when the average daily transfer was 16.7M ounces, but a 3% decline on November 2000.

To put this into context, world physical consumption of gold ran (in the first nine months of this year) at approximately 12 tonnes (360,000 ounces) per day, so these London turnover figures, which the LBMA makes clear do not cover all transactions, ran last month at roughly 47 times physical offtake. The figures exclude allocated and unallocated balance transfers where the sole purpose is for overnight credit, and they also exclude physical movements arranged by Clearing Members in locations other than London. -end-

I've said it before and it bears repeating. This bullion-based realm of commercial banking does NOT have the "safety net" of any so-called Lender of Last Resort as is ubiquitiously found in the fiat currency realms of banking.

What is the implication? Let history be your guide....default. Physical IN HAND is the only form of gold ownership that can actually deliver the full benefits of GOLD OWNERSHIP.


Centennial Precious Metals, Inc. / USAGOLDCommon sense investing for uncommon times...#6691012/14/01; 12:06:01

Swiss Gold Francs

Get the Legendary SECURITY of a Swiss Account...

...Delivered to Your Door.

Call Centennial for Arrangements

miner49erEconoclast @ 66902#6691112/14/01; 12:52:32

Another actually makes this reference back in 1997. This is from the Another Archives, Vol I:

Date: Mon Nov 03 1997 07:31
Reify ( @ANOTHER ) ID#413109:
Soooo, I'm wondering, over what period of time are your predictions?
Where do you get information on about, Big Trader?

The actual buying of gold ( no other metals ) by huge players is not a prediction, it is ongoing. In 1997 it exploded! The price of the metal in currency terms will be made for all to see as it moves quickly upward for a very short period of time ( 30 days ) . After that only black market traders and third world noones will understand it's price! When is this going to happen? I have no idea. Is there anything to look for that will tell us when the problems have started? At first the US$ and gold will go up together against all other assets!

Big Trader is ( was ) from HK and is in the business.

FOA elaborates on this theme at length throughout his writings however. Hope this helps...


USAGOLDDraco Dormiens Nunquam Titillandus!#6691212/14/01; 13:02:17

Titillandus! Coming onto the weekend, I wondered if any of our Latin scholars could translate the motto incribed above. It speaks to today's breakout in gold, silver, the euro, oil.

Hint: It is the motto of one of the academies.

The link above will take our regular and prospective clientele to the Commentary & Review page where this motto is mentioned. If you haven't registered for your temporary access to our reports, try the "Request Info" toward the top of the page.

We think you will find the overview provided of some value.

USAGOLDOh. . . .#6691312/14/01; 13:04:07

There should be only one "Titillandus" in that motto. Sorry.
megatronHmmmm....#6691412/14/01; 13:21:43

I did get the distinct feeling looking at the numbers and trader sentiment that ol' mr. inflation was rumoured to have been in the neighbourhood today. First day in a long time anyone took heed.
UsulUSAGOLD - Draco Dormiens Nunquam Titillandus!#6691512/14/01; 13:28:07

Never provoke a sleeping dragon?
Qeadem mutata resurgo#6691612/14/01; 13:32:39

The Invisible HandSearching the web for Latin (America)#6691712/14/01; 13:42:40

Dormiens = sleeping, numquam = never
My searches in the Latin web dictionaries donot yield any results for draco, dracus, drago or dragus, neither for the verb titillare. Is this medieval Latin?
The sleeping draco never titillates?
Dormiens? It's 4:40 in the morning for me and I came out of bed in order to find out what happened to Argentina's default and found NOTHING. Is there a newsblack-out? Or was Marx's resignation designed to distract attention? Better go dreaming about Argentina.

The Invisible HandThe euro, even given away, doesn't attract the crowds#6691812/14/01; 14:05:59

Euro "starter packs" are being distributed in France, Ireland and the Netherlands ahead of the formal launch of the currency's notes and coins on 1 January.
Some lucky consumers were even given the handful of coins for nothing.
But the prospect of a free cash handout wasn't enough to entice the inhabitants of Maastrich

The Invisible HandThe euro, even given away, doesn't attract the crowds#6691912/14/01; 14:06:00

Euro "starter packs" are being distributed in France, Ireland and the Netherlands ahead of the formal launch of the currency's notes and coins on 1 January.
Some lucky consumers were even given the handful of coins for nothing.
But the prospect of a free cash handout wasn't enough to entice the inhabitants of Maastricht - Dutch birthplace of the euro project - out to the banks.

megatronMis-appropriated energy#6692012/14/01; 14:16:27

Why line up for something that is soon to be worth 50% less? I have a hunch that if they started giving away silver maple leafs there might have been a few 'takers', no? Why give it away? It's not like people don't know what it is or what to do with it. Ahhh B-eurocracy.... the true intellects of the world.
The Invisible HandEnd of businesss - tthe Argentine way#6692112/14/01; 14:33:46

Friday December 14, 4:04 pm Eastern Time

``Today's payments will be met and the funds will be deposited at the end of business, as usual,'' said (resigning) Deputy Economy Minister Daniel Marx, capping a week of frenzied government negotiations with creditors.


This was 4 pm eastern
4 pm eastern = 6:00PM (hora de Buenos Aires) - Mercados de Buenos Aires cerrados. (Markets closed), says Yahoo! Finanzas Argentina -
When is end of business? Or is it really end of business for Argentina and not at the end of the business day that the payments will be made?

Sorry for my double post on the euro – didn't click twice, didn't change the message (how could I have done that in one second?) and still the message appears differently. Randy, what was the problem?

UsulDraco dormiens nunquam titillandus#6692212/14/01; 14:52:48

Harry Potter mania at the table round?

"The school motto, which appears on the crest, is "Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus," which means "Never tickle a sleeping dragon." "

USAGOLDNever Tickle a Sleeping Dragon!#6692312/14/01; 15:56:12

Indeed, my dear Usul. . . .

Draco Dormiens Nunquam Titillandus!
Never tickle a sleeping dragon! (Though I like your "provoke" better for our purposes here. . . .)

An imperative Mr. Greenspan could be heard mumbling to himself on a day when

Gold goes up $4.00
Silver 8¢
Palladium $13
Oil $1.10
Heating Oil 6%!
the euro 1.08
And bonds topple again. . . .down 23/32 (after yesterday's precipitous decline)

It amazes me how fast you came up with that. How do you do that?

Harry Potter mania? No. (Although wife and daughter did drag me to the movie theater for a pleasant evening about a week ago.) Just some common sense advice I thought I'd throw out on a quiet Friday afternoon (evening in your case).

LeighDollar and Gold Rising Together#6692412/14/01; 17:00:13

Here is ANOTHER brief reference to the "dollar and gold rising together."

From 06/29/98:
"Gold will rise in dollar terms to values little understood to analysis of 'supply and demand.' As they know the commodity purpose for gold, little is thought of the 'currency/wealth' purpose for gold. As 'supply and demand' did not explain the dollar drop of gold for the past twenty years, it will not explain the dollar rise for the next decade! Soon, gold will rise 'with the dollar,' then the maker of your money will force this currency down in an effort to stop it from coming home."

Here is a GREAT quote by ANOTHER (08/11/98):
"Gold in both hands lives by no rules of man."

CoBra(too)Notice of Obituary #6692512/14/01; 17:56:10

The once proud shares of Homestake Mining fell prey to, what may be called a vulture fund, ABX, a predator akin to
T-Rex, who may have the same kind of future (No, not BreX), though by anhilation by Mun-key-nesation.

Barrick and Homestake complete merger

Barrick Gold Corp ABX
Shares issued 396,002,057 Dec 14 close $25.75
Fri 14 Dec 2001 News Release
Mr. Vincent Borg reports
Barrick Gold has completed its merger with Homestake Mining Company,
strengthening Barrick's leadership position as the most valuable gold
mining company by market capitalization. "Going forward, our goal is to be
the most profitable, lowest-cost producer, not to be the biggest producer,"
said Randall Oliphant, Barrick's president and chief executive officer.
Homestake shareholders strongly approved the merger during a special
meeting held earlier today. Under the terms of the merger agreement, each
share of Homestake common stock was converted into 0.53 Barrick common
share. The combined company has approximately 536 million shares
outstanding. Former holders of Homestake common stock now own approximately
26 per cent of the outstanding Barrick common shares.
"This merger ties strength to strength," said Mr. Oliphant, "creating a
company with a stronger balance sheet, stronger free cash flows and more
opportunities than either company had alone." Jack Thompson, Homestake's
chairman and chief executive officer, said, "We are pleased that our
shareholders have shown overwhelming support for the merger, which uniquely
positions the combined company for an exciting and dynamic future."
The transaction creates the clear market leader in four key areas:
Operating strength
provided by a large, low-cost asset base with the lowest geopolitical risk
profile among senior producers in the gold industry (54 per cent of the
merged company's reserves are in North America and Australia, with another
33 per cent in South America);
Financial strength
the industry's highest cash flows, only A-rated balance sheet and premium
gold sales program, which has a 14-year track record of earning a premium
to the spot price;
Capital market strength
the largest market capitalization, roughly by a factor of two, with
liquidity that is expected to place the combined company in the top 100 of
the Standard and Poor's 500; and
A strong growth profile
with dominant land positions in the most prolific gold-producing regions in
the world and a promising pipeline of new projects.
The company has streamlined its management structure and appointed
Homestake executives to the team. Barrick has appointed Jack Thompson as
vice-chairman of the company and as a member of its board of directors. In
addition, Homestake's Steve Orr has been appointed as vice-president, North
American operations, and Greg Lang as vice-president, Australian
operations. "This new team structure has three key drivers: profitable
growth, operational excellence and leadership development," said Mr.
Oliphant. The company's corporate offices will continue to be located in
When the transaction was first reported in Stockwatch on June 25, Barrick
projected administrative and financial synergies of at least $55-million
annually beginning in 2002, comprising approximately $20-million in tax
savings, $20-million in administrative expense savings, and $15-million as
a result of exploration expense savings and the benefits of combining
complementary operations. "Based on the work done to date, the company now
expects to realize approximately $60-million next year, which we see as a
base to build on for 2003," said Mr. Oliphant.
Over and above these synergies, an integration team made up of two dozen
people, half Barrick and half Homestake, has been focusing on operating
savings at each of the mining operations. Another integration team, focused
on development projects, is assessing the Pascua and Veladero properties in
Chile and Argentina as an opportunity for future growth. The focus is on
developing Pascua and Veladero as a single, unified gold district, with the
benefits provided in the form of lower capital and operating costs. The
primary objective for 2002 will be to finalize the development plan for the
Veladero property.
Postmerger, Barrick's premium gold sales program will continue to provide
security during periods of low gold prices while maintaining flexibility to
participate in higher spot prices. With the inclusion of Homestake's hedge
position, the program is very much in line with its historic parameters.
The program had 18.3 million ounces in spot deferred contracts at an
average price of $345 per ounce at the end of the third quarter this year.
The program is expected to generate approximately $200-million annually in
premiums for the company, continuing a 14-year track record in which the
program has earned an additional $2-billion in revenue, or an average $68
per ounce premium to the spot price. Going forward, a portion of Barrick's
annual production is expected to be sold into the spot market. This will
provide additional participation in a rising gold price environment while
the program continues to assure strong cash flows.
The combined company now has a reserve base of 84.3 million ounces and is
expected to produce approximately 5.7 million ounces of gold at a cash cost
of about $165 per ounce in 2002.
WARNING: The company relies upon litigation protection for
"forward-looking" statements.
(c) Copyright 2001 Canjex Publishing Ltd.

cb2 - ... even the disclaimer is forward looking. Sorry for chuckling!

Solomon WeaverA snippet out of today's market report over at Prubear#6692612/14/01; 18:20:00

"Oil rose $1.11 to just over 19 bucks. The XOI rose a percent, and the OSX rose 3 percent. Gold rose 4 bucks, and the HUI rose 4 percent. Gold lease rates were quiet, and the JSE gold index in Johannesburg rose another 9 percent to a new high. The COT report released today revealed that as of Tuesday commercials were once again net long gold by 14,000 contracts, which is bullish. Silver rose 8 cents or 2 percent, and silver lease rates went on a rocket ride as the one-month lease rate jumped from around 3% to over 10% today. Obviously, things are getting a little tight in the silver market. The only pure-play in silver, Pan American Silver (PAAS), rose 3 percent. The US dollar index fell almost a percent to a new low for the move. The euro rose above the 90-cent level to a new high for the move and appears to be breaking out on the charts. Treasuries were a little lower once again in the long end and went out for the week just shy of a new low for the move."

. . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Hi O Silver.....POS (Poor old Solomon)

Cavan ManEnron Contagion?#6692712/14/01; 19:19:17

Calpine Cut to Junk by Moody's; Shares, Bonds Fall
By Jennifer Ryan

San Jose, California, Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Calpine Corp. shares fell to a
two-year low and its bonds dropped to 78 cents on the dollar as Moody's
Investors Service cut the energy producer and trader's credit rating to junk.

Moody's said yesterday it would review Calpine's credit, unnerving investors
because energy trader Enron Corp. filed for bankruptcy after its rating was
reduced. Rival power producer Dynegy Inc.'s commercial paper also was
reduced, to not-prime level. One of its unit's rating was cut to junk and other units
were downgraded to one level above junk.

``I hope Calpine isn't going to be another Enron, but I wouldn't touch it with a
10-foot pole,'' said Jon Burnham, who manages the $175 million Burnham Fund.
The fund owned Calpine shares earlier this year; Burnham sold the shares after
they declined 15 percent.

Investors are concerned a lower rating would hamper Calpine's effort to secure as
much as $1.5 billion to finance plants under construction.

Calpine's shares, down 40 percent the past month, fell $2.85, or 18 percent, to
$13.20, the lowest closing price since Oct. 28, 1999. The shares dropped further
after the downgrade, to $12.50.

Moody's lowered the rating to ``Ba1,'' the highest junk level, from ``Baa3,'' the
lowest investment grade. Further cuts are possible, affecting $11.6 billion in debt,
the ratings company said.

Calpine's 8.5 percent notes maturing in 2011 were trading at 78 cents on the
dollar, to yield 12.6 percent, from more than 84 cents yesterday. The bonds
traded above 100 as recently as November.


Dynegy unit Dynegy Holdings had its credit ratings cut to ``Baa3'' by Moody's,
which said further cuts are possible. Moody's cut the senior unsecured rating by
one level to the lowest on its investment-grade scale. The Houston-based
company's commercial paper rating was cut to ``P3'' from ``P2.''

Moody's also downgraded Illinova, a Dynegy utility unit, to the highest junk level
from the lowest investment grade.

Dynegy shares, which dropped $1.64 to $24.94, fell to $23 in after-hours trading.

Moody's said it's concerned about Dynegy's high debt levels relative to other
similarly rated companies. Dynegy has about $5 billion in debt securities that are
affected by the downgrade, Moody's said. That compares with the company's $8
billion stock market value.

Analysts said Dynegy shouldn't be compared to Enron and pointed out that
Dynegy has a strong backer in ChevronTexaco Corp., which holds about a
quarter of Dynegy's shares.

``The ace up their sleeve is ChevronTexaco,'' said Carl Kirst, an analyst for Merrill
Lunch & Co. ``This company is not facing a liquidity crisis.'' Kirst rates Dynegy
shares ``near-term buy.''

Calpine's Debt

Moody's cut Calpine's credit rating because the company must manage the
``significant debt burden'' it incurred for its expansion plan ``in the face of modest
operating profits,'' Moody's said.

The rating agency considered cutting the credit because it was ``concerned with
the possible diminished access (to capital markets) that Calpine faces, given the
steep decline in its stock price,'' said Susan Abbott, a managing director of the
project infrastructure finance group at Moody's.

Standard & Poor's affirmed its ``BB+,'' rating, the highest junk grade, on Dec. 12,
and isn't considering changing the rating at present.

``The credit fundamentals that brought us to that rating decision are still valid
today,'' S&P's Jeff Wolinsky said earlier this week.

Fitch Inc., another ratings company, placed Calpine on watch for downgrade,
saying that ``while the company's operating fundamentals are sound, the
financial profile is aggressive.''


Calpine's rating is important to its energy trading business because the company
may ``be required to post more collateral'' in the event of a Moody's downgrade,
Dorothea Matthews, an analyst for CreditSights Inc., said yesterday.

Calpine is relying on loans to pay for power plant construction. Calpine plans to
almost double its generating capacity in coming years, building and expanding
enough plants to light 18.4 million average U.S. homes.

Some investors say there are similarities between Calpine and Enron. Both
companies financed some of their business with off- balance sheet debt and both
trade power, which requires a credit rating high enough to finance positions.
Calpine also shared the same auditor as Enron, Arthur Andersen LLP.

The company, based in San Jose, California, has about $190 million in debt that
doesn't appear on the balance sheet spread over seven power-plant projects,
spokeswoman Katherine Potter said. The company has bought the interests of
some partners, reducing off-books debt from about $300 million on Sept. 30,
Potter said.


``We're disappointed. We should be investment grade,'' she said. ``In the wake of
Enron, the mild weather and the economic downturn, these are short-term
difficulties, but our long-term strategy remains in place,'' she said. Calpine's
trading partners haven't asked it to post collateral on trades, she said.

A Moody's downgrade would hurt Calpine's ability to raise capital and maintain
its cash position, Lehman Brothers analyst Daniel Ford said earlier today. Ford
cut his rating on Calpine's stock to ``market perform'' from ``strong buy.''

Lehman research points out that Calpine will probably have to pay off a $1 billion
zero-coupon convertible note in April. Lehman analysts said in a report that they
expected the company to be able to buy back the convertible notes, even though
it may not be able to build its plants and grow as fast as it planned.


Moody's decision is a setback for Calpine, which had seen its rating raised to
investment grade on Oct. 2. In an announcement that day, Moody's cited
Calpine's ``focused'' growth strategy and ``disciplined power marketing and
financial and risk management.''

Moody's sees a difference between Calpine's and Enron's primary businesses.
``Calpine is in a totally different business,'' Moody's Abbott said. ``They own
assets; they contract, in the long-term, 50 percent of what they own, so they
have a very steady stream of cash flow that is very predictable. They do some
financial trading, but it only accounts for about 15 percent of revenue.''

``For Enron, that is what the company did -- traded energy without the physical
assets to back it up.''

Calpine Chief Executive Peter Cartwright has called a comparison between
Calpine and Enron ``ridiculous.'' He said Calpine is a power-generating company
and doesn't take speculative trading positions as Enron did.


Calpine may also be able to retain customers more easily than Enron did, some
analysts said.

``For Calpine customers to void their long-term contracts and not buy the power
from them means they go dark. They can get power elsewhere, but not quickly,''
said Jon Kyle Cartwright, senior energy analyst at Raymond James &
Associates in St. Petersburg, Florida. ``Calpine tends to be a major player in
most of the markets where it operates,'' he said.

By contrast, ``Enron is a brokerage, and it can't operate when its customers are
afraid of financial troubles,'' he said.

Calpine's slump weighed down shares of other energy companies. Mirant Corp.,
which today issued a statement saying it would end the year with more than $1
billion in cash and credit lines, fell as much as $2.60, or 14 percent, to $15.75,
while NRG Energy Inc. declined as much as $1.39, or 9.8 percent, to $12.74.

Mark Sanders, who helps run 2 billion pounds ($2.9 billion) of high-yield bonds at
Aberdeen Asset Management, said earlier today that he isn't selling the Calpine
bonds he bought in October. He said the rating review reflects a temporary
difficulty Calpine faces in obtaining financing, and the company has other

``If they don't get access to the capital markets in the next six months they'll
have to cut costs to get cash,'' Sanders said. ``It's more of a temporary blip.
Once we are into the recovery phase things will start to pick up.''

tedwPan |American Silcer#6692812/14/01; 20:40:39

Pan American may have been up 3% but Standard Siver Rsc
(ssri on the NASDAQ) was up 5.7%

WaveriderSSRI#6692912/14/01; 21:07:31

Standard Silver(SSO) on CDNX up 5.6% and also Corner Bay (BAY) TSE up 10%.
HoratioEnron#6693012/14/01; 21:25:05

The following is from an article on Enron.My question is what the hell were they doing shorting silver ?They are in the energy business.Where were the Auditors ?How could they miss this?Even if it was "off the books".Who the hell was running this company ?the mafia?Two sets of books and Anderson doesen't ask Wheres the money?.How many more companys were shorting Silver "off the books".Maybe the Auditors should be paid by an accounting pool that taxes its members according to work performed and not by a company that pays the same people that audit them.
Obviously the more you let them get away with, the more you charge them in fees.What a system!Maybe the accounting companys should be included as co-conspiritors in Reg Howes lawsuit!

"March silver also closed sharply higher on Friday due to buybacks of
short silver positions by Enron, which tightened short-term silver
lease rates. March silver soared above October's reaction high
crossing at 4.315 cents and the 38% retracement level of this fall's
decline "

Gandalf the WhiteBUT tedw !!!!!#6693112/14/01; 21:31:03

Helca Mining (NYSE:HL) was up 9.19%
and the HL-PrB is soon going to be worth its weight in GOLD !

Gandalf the WhiteAND tedw !!!!!#6693212/14/01; 21:35:50

Coeur d"Alene Mines (NYSE:CDE) wase up 7.14%
Is not silver paper interesting ?

HoratioShorts#6693312/14/01; 21:46:13

Has anyone asked "Has Dynegy shorted Silver?"
Has Calpine shorted Silver?Did they have "off the books" shorting?Did Chevron /Texaco short Silver?.
Where they all raising cash by shorting Gold and Silver?
Was Goldman Sachs or Morgan acting as advisor to any of these companys and orchestrating? Follow the money!

RAPENRON- Sabotage?#6693412/14/01; 22:00:14

Anyone consider the possibility of al Qaeda operatives in Enron's financial dept. and this was a terrorist attack?
With maybe more to come.

WaveriderInflation or Deflation?#6693512/14/01; 22:16:46

Another good read by Adam Hamilton. Fortunately, all of us here know the answer to the last question.

The Invisible HandHear Ye, Hear Ye - USAGOLD.COM featured in FT !!!#6693612/14/01; 22:40:53

In a column under the title ‘ Errors and Omissions’ in this week-end's FT, Barry Riley starts by asking that " For most of us it is a reasonable rule of life to look on the bright side - but should professional forecasters adopt the same approach?" and he concludes by stating that "To improve our chances of recovering from a recession we first have to accept that there is one. "

He argues that " For something closer to the truth (in understanding the economic cycle) we have to seek out obscure newsletters and websites, always being wary of doomsters who predict crisis year after year in the not unreasonable expectation that one day they will be right".

I wonder what not so obscure websites Barry has in mind.

HoratioGold-Options-InterestRates#6693712/15/01; 00:27:09

As long as gold stays under control and predictable,the Cabal believes interest rates will decline and its safe to play options on the Bonds capturing the Premiums .Lately they have switched tactics ,testing the other side of the market.The options players are a key tip off because the leverage is in the Bond Market.This usually indicates a bottom or change in direction in Int. Rates.That is a role gold plays in Interest rates.A change in price of gold throws it all in reverse.
WaveriderDROOY News#6693812/15/01; 00:42:26,3523,990132-6078-0,00.html

"Marginal gold miner Durban Roodepoort Deep Ltd on Friday said it had repaid in full a loan from fellow miner Western Areas Ltd, amounting to R149,375,483.11. DRD said it exercised its options in respect of 16,128,500 shares in Consolidated African Mines (CAM), 6,268,100 shares in JCI Gold and 7,187,700 shares in Randgold & Exploration Co Ltd, which were offset against the amount due. "DRD has therefore discharged all of its obligations under the original agreement and will realise a profit of
approximately 17 million rand on the transaction," the group said in a statement."
Waverider: This likely contributed to the jump in DROOY today of 12.6%

WaveriderThe Euro Hits the Streets#6693912/15/01; 00:59:40

"The historic new symbol of European unity finally emerged as a physical reality Friday as Europeans rushed to be among the first to hold freshly minted euro coins in their hands...The euro, destined to become the most widely circulated coin since the Roman denarius and the fruit of an unprecedented complex monetary union, is one of the most ambitious projects ever undertaken by the European Union and will be the most widely used currency in the world..."

Waverider: hmmm....not the $US?

ChrusosMissing Trail Guide#6694012/15/01; 10:15:17

What a web feast we gold bugs have had recently. The Barron's article on the Shreddin FED, Hugo Salinas interview, the latest issue of Privateer is an absolute corker, great articles from Adam Hamilton, the deflation black hole, many interesting posts and references in USA Gold especially Black Blades recent one on the AngloGold panic, from the Café Bill Murphy seems to be seeing the end game….

Only one thing is missing - Mr. Trail Guide. As far as I see there hasn't been that much discussion of his loss. Perhaps due to his sensitivity he has left us one time too many. I miss him and have been stewing for some time hoping that more eloquent members would speak out. I left the forum for a while after this so if I am raising an issue that was thoroughly dealt with forgive me

I feel ORO deserves censure for his unmannerly and below the belt attack on FOA. I had thought ORO was some type of academic with a great intellect. Unfortunately this seems to be matched with a corresponding tiny ego that he feels it necessary to attack a sensitive community colleague in a manner calculated to deprive the whole community of his wisdom.

In thinking about why ORO would do this I came to the conclusion he feels mortally threatened by TG's ideas, so filled is he with US triumphalism based on his perception of their great free markets.

No rigging or gross distortions there in the sole bastion of free markets when compared against European socialist idiots who are beneath contempt. Not in the surplus, the social security, the gold price, the inflation index, the balance sheets of its major institutions, the debt explosion, the GSE's, the integrity of its stock touts er … I mean WS analysts, the dangerous and lopsided unregulated derivatives explosion - no only the steady, omniscient and benevolent hand of free markets is seen.

Feeling terribly threatened and probably feeling FOAs postulations are so dangerous and, coupled with his assumed link to middle eastern ragheads, this left him no option but to cast himself in the heroic role of Inquisitor and to thoroughly skewer the heretic with character defamation and vitriolic ridicule. After all economics is the sole province of academic Pharisees whose clear duty it is to expose dangerous false prophets held in esteem by the naïve and uneducated.

Another achievement with the same post was embarrassing our host by putting him in the position of what to do when one of his most valued guests and friends, for whom he created a special website, is openly insulted. Shame on you.

For Trail Guide I say thanks for all the hikes. As events quickly unfold the trail seems to me to go inexorably in the directions to which you have patiently pointed. Please come back so we can follow in the Footsteps of Giants. Your analysis provides unique keys not found elsewhere on the web. Don't worry about dwarfs with Harry Potter fantasies.

InterstateChrusos msg.#66940#6694112/15/01; 10:31:26

And your comments about ORO are no different than what you are accusing ORO of doing? Be objective, reread what you wrote about ORO and tell us that is not slander. If you are honest, IMHO, I don't think you can. My comments have nothing to do with FOA, I am curious about you saying those things about ORO.
LeighChrusos#6694212/15/01; 10:52:32

Have you noticed ORO hasn't been seen on this site since last weekend? What might that tell us?
GalearisUpdate#6694312/15/01; 10:58:12

With Christmas coming so comes the rush to fulfil all those festival obligations. So comes the frustration too of not being able to post as often on this fine forum. I find myself digesting and regurgitating more communications from other sources and passing them along to this forum. This is a case in point. From Rhody this morning:

The R coefficient here is a bit worriesome. It should be above .75 to inspire confidance
in the trend. It is rising though. The red moving average line seems to have a constant
wavelength, that could mean that this trend bottoms out at zero transfers (dead market in
paper gold on the largest gold exchange on earth) before spring, 2006. We could bottom out
at the end of 2005, giving the present paper gold manipulation another 4 years to run.
Where have I heard that 4 years number before????? Oh yes, four more years is the
time left to mine out the rest of the world's gold reserves at under $300 pog. Four years
is the time left before the world's central banks have dishoarded/leased all of their
remaining gold reserves. If you think these figures are a compelling reason to buy gold,
you should see the same thing done for silver. We run out of silver transfers (dead market for paper silver) in [more or less] July of 2002!
Regards, Rhody.
Now off to do more of those obligations.



ChrusosTG ORO#6694412/15/01; 12:45:40

Interstate my purpose was not to say that all personal criticism is wrong but that ORO, knowing TG's sensitivity, acted in a deliberate way to drive TG off the airwaves and so deprive us of his company. Why would an intelligent individual secure in his own worldview do this?

If you look at OROs criticisms then my conclusion is that he fears TG as dangerous heretic of the first order. Otherwise why would he compose such a nasty post? Possibly I did warm to my topic but I feel that forum has had a very muted response to ORO. Believe me I could have got a lot more sarcastic and personal but I tried to restrict myself to analyzing the offending post only.

I am quite happy to be counted as one of TG's hikers. Besides that I will grant you one "Touché" however.

Lady Leigh
I have enjoyed your posts for many years. I don't know why he hasn't posted – on holiday, computer crash, in his own dungeon teaching apprectices etc?

InterstateChrusos#6694512/15/01; 13:45:32

Thank you for responding to my post. I understand what you are saying; however, perhaps ORO is sensitive also. Psychology teaches us that sometimes a self-proclaimed expert is actually covering for his/her timidity.

I have received much to think on from Another, Friend of Another and ORO. I do not agree with everything that each has to say. I believe we should read, listen, keep an open mind and come to our OWN conclusions. I have changed my mind many times after thoughtful consideration and I may still not be right. IMO, there is danger is blindly following someone else's thinking.

It is also my belief that one should not attack the thoughts of others. If someone offers ideas we do not like, stooping to personal belittlement is not going to help someone else to be open to listening to our ideas. Name calling, slurs, intimidation, patronization only relect on the person saying them. (My opinion only!)

I am not normally a poster and have been on line for only a little while. I lurk here a lot because being interested in PMs, I found that this forum, usually, has some great info for me.

I look forward to your posts, and I appreciate that you took my words to you kindly.

site stewardIt doesn't get any easier than this#6694612/15/01; 13:50:56

Those of you looking for a deeper understanding of the forces at work in the gold market will find our latest Quarterly Review a beacon in a sea of market confusion. In it, master analyst and prominent market maven, James Grant offers his views on the subject in an extensive article not to be missed titled 'For Real Money'.

By simply saying "Show me the info!" using the request form we've provided (see link above), you can enjoy the same information services that are provided to Centennial's regular clientele. Jill will provide you with your own access codes with which to download the quarterly reports as they become available. And the current one is still hot off the press. Act now and enjoy it today.

(And if you choose to take things a step further saying "show me the bargains!", by picking up the phone any thime during Denver business hours you can enjoy the same competitive pricing on gold that has been offered for three decades to Centennial's thousands of satisfied customers.)


admin18-karat jewelry * ** *** Order Deadline *** ** * December 19th (Wednesday)#6694712/15/01; 15:14:13

We want to first of all thank all those who have already availed themselves of our jewelry selection for the holidays. I've taken a look at some of the pieces that have gone through here and this stuff is stunning.

This is a fair warning that, due to logistical considerations, we will not be able to take orders after the 19th and still get the jewelry to you before the big day.

So if you are thinking about this as a gift, you should get your order in ASAP.

Also, we got word that Termine & Winer is already sold out of some items.

Please call if you have an interest. We don't want you to be closed out of this option.


The following was reported out of South Africa on Friday
December 14, 2001:

"Harmony has had a fantastic run. It gained 10,2% to R86. The CEO took
advantage of this price selling 30 000 shares at R87 today, netting R2,6

Can anyone confirm this report?


UsulAirbus bones#6694912/15/01; 16:08:58

Airbus to cut 1,600 jobs in Britain - paper

"European commercial planemaker Airbus SAS is to cut as many as 1,600 jobs in Britain due to falling demand and the aftermath of the September 11 attacks on the United States, the Observer newspaper said on Sunday"

Another 1600 nonessential bones consigned to the bone pile (nods to Black Blade)

Max RabbitzChrusos on ORO#6695012/15/01; 16:33:54

I do not fully understand ORO's analysis but have welcomed his input. However, I agree that ORO for his own reasons wanted to drive TG from this forum. He accomplished this with a bizarre accusation of TG being part of the Twin Towers infamy. Does he really believe this? Although I still read ORO and take his views into account I no longer just assume, as I once did, that on those occasions when I do not follow him that it is my muddled head that is at fault.

On the other hand, I have a theory that ORO is really Alan Greenspan who is desperately trying to fight off the Euro by any means necessary! :)

To goes on so take time to enjoy it. I just got back from San Diego where I played hooky for one the zoo. Do not miss it. It's also a tropical botanical preserve with natural habitats, walk-in aviaries, many endangered species and ongoing research. I especially enjoyed the gorilla family in their savanna habitat and the hippo doing his water ballet. Although I spent all day on foot I didn't get worn out because of the great number of well placed benches, and outdoor escalators to avoid long climbs. World Class for the price of one fourth of a sovereign!

mikalBloomberg recites our rulers reassurances#6695112/15/01; 17:37:32

If you believe this, then no cash strapped or prudent central bank, pension fund, investment trust, etc. is responsible, but half a loaf is better than none...

" Treasuries may fall next week as investors anticipate an economic recovery.
Signs of an economic rebound, such as drops in jobless claims and business inventories, as well as a smaller-than-expected contraction in industrial production, sparked a decline in the past two days in Treasuries, pushing the benchmark 10-year note's yield to a four-month high of 5.19 percent. Losses may be extended as investors sell their holdings as the end of the year approaches.
``December historically is when people pull in their horns. Now it´s more volatile because of very low rates and few buyers out there,´´ said Bill Hornbarger, chief fixed-income strategist at St. Louis-based A.G. Edwards & Sons Inc. ``Right now it´s ´let´s get through the year and take our profits.´´´
Treasuries may decline further as firms close their books for the year, limiting the number of traders in the market..."

HOOSIER GOLDBUGPOSTS/INPUT!#6695212/15/01; 18:22:04

We need everyone's input at this forum of which Mr. Kosares has provided for our access! It takes a responsible, caring, gutsy individual (Mr. Kosares) for providing us with this site. He could just roll over and take the easy road and leave us all behind. Just think where our level of intelligence would be without the diverse opinions of all post participants-do not want to be name specific for failure of missing someone. I have personally been able to take from each and every post something that enriches my life! I do not want to be just another JOE or JOSEPHINE SIXPACK! BOTTOM LINE: ACCUMULATE PHYSICAL!!!! BOTTOM LINE: KEEP THINKING OUT OF THE BOX!!!! BOTTOM LINE: SUPPORT THIS SITE AND LET THE KNOWLEDGE FLOW!!!!!
slingshotHoosier Goldbug#6695312/15/01; 19:39:49

Hey Hoosier, Good to see ya. Must be working hard in the Golden Trench. I agree! To lose anyone from this forum does have an impact on us all. Yes USAGOLD and MK has allowed topics on the perifial to further understand how they interact with Gold. To lose one is to lose an avenue of information or an opinion from a different veiw.
Now is the time to close ranks. Take a look what is going on in the world. We can not afford to lose anyone.
We keep watch on the world. From Canada to Austrailia
Belgium To Hong Kong, Great Britian to the USA. You don't have to be Too Smart to see the importance of this forum.
Keep the info coming.

ALL RIGHT HOOSIER GOLDBUG. We are winning one ounce at a time!

Old YellerORO machinations#6695412/15/01; 20:16:12

ORO has been and will hopefully continue to be one of the pillars of the USAGOLD forum.The time and effort he has expended here in helping to explain the maneuvers and counter-strategies of the financial and political managers of our destiny has been deeply appreciated by many readers of this forum.Idle speculations as to his motives,aims and even his identity serve no useful purpose and may even cause him to discontinue posting here.

This would be a loss to everyone,including FOA.FOA and ORO have been involved in many epic debates and discussions and make worthy foils for us fascinated observers.ORO has a deep distrust of the Eurobloc and what the ramifications of their actions portend for the future of the world monetary system.FOA is an unabashed supporter and cheerleader for this group,and is,of course, entitled to his positive opinion of their true aims and ambitions.It is obvious that differences in this area of upmost importance will lead to less than than cordial discussion at times.Get over it,FOA always manages to do so and he has said he will return.

Many thanks ORO,for all your efforts to educate and inform.There are many posters and lurkers here who hold you in high esteem and are deeply grateful for all your efforts.Some may not like the method of delivery,but the content always compensates.

HOOSIER GOLDBUG(No Subject)#6695512/15/01; 21:27:31


You said it all! ONE OUNCE AT AT TIME! I refuse to believe, maybe because of my limited mental capacity or ingrained idiosyncracies/habits/patterns, etc. I've acquired over the years, to believe that the majority of AMERICANS have let go/abandoned our western MONEY ideas/FIAT BELIEFS. I know I HAVE NOT, because the majority of my wealth or so-called wealth is still denominated in fiat/intangibles. But I am quite content on playing this game (FIAT DELUSION) for the remainder of life, all the while accumulating on the side, on a timely basis REAL MONEY/GOLD! The education at this site has added that new twist/change to my life behavior, for which I am deeply grateful! THE NEW BOTTOM LINE AFTER ALL THE RHETORIC IN MY OPINION STILL IS: The opinions of TRAIL GUIDE + the opinions of ORO + the opinions of SLINGSHOT + the opinions of ..... + the opinions of ..... + the opinions of ..... + ....... + ....... + ...... - all diferences of opinions = IMPERATIVE GOLD ACCUMULATION!
Gandalf the WhiteOne more for Henri et. al.#6695612/15/01; 21:55:00

The registered mail still keeps coming in !!

Black BladeBellSouth Plans to Cut 1,200 Jobs#6695712/15/01; 22:42:51


BellSouth Plans to Cut 1,200 More Jobs Throughout Its Nine-State Service Area.

Black Blade: Phone "Bones" to the "Bone Pile." As corporate earnings fall to nonexistent, the "Bone Pile" grows in a corporate "Scorched Earth" policy.

Black BladeElectronics Maker ITT Cuts Jobs#6695812/15/01; 23:00:43

NEW YORK (AP) - ITT Industries Inc. said Friday it will lay off 3,400 employees, or 8 percent of its worldwide work force, because of slack demand for the electronic components it makes for telecommunications, aerospace and other industries.

Black Blade: More Scorched Earth as the "Bone Pile" grows.

Mr GreshamOld Yeller#6695912/15/01; 23:30:10

Bravo! Second that. We all need each other; hasn't it been hard enough these years, being such "weirdos" outside the common consensus?

I still think of us as a combat platoon on the frontlines of an economic war, one that most of the folks "back home" don't even know is going on, and that they're the eventual targets of. We have the benefit of early warning, and the chance to "toughen up", but it also means taking early casualties.

I'm grateful for anyone who gives me early warning of things to watch for. I'm an adult; I can sort out the warnings myself, and admit when I don't have adequate confirmation. (It's up to ME to get it, to my own satisfaction.)

We need each other. We're lucky to have found each other. I think we all know where the bounds of civil discourse lie. That's all there is to it.

Black BladeBankrupt ExciteAtHome Cuts 400 Jobs#6696012/15/01; 23:50:14


REDWOOD CITY, Calif. (AP) - Preparing to go out of business at the end of February, bankrupt cable Internet provider ExciteAtHome laid off 400 of its 1,300 employees Friday.

Black Blade: I a desperate bid to remain viable, this scam operation has disconnected it's anti-spam package and profited from its users being flooded with spam. Pleas from users are going unanswered as the customer service unit has been shutdown. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

Belgian * 7 * TRILLION US$ in Foreign hands....#6696112/16/01; 06:16:52

Do we realize how much this really is ? 140.000 tonnes of the above rifened is worth, only * 1 * Trillion $ (at 275$) . A decisive hold up on a fraction of this physical gold stash, with a fraction of the 7 trillion, is dramatically affecting, directly, (purchasing power) much more than those 7 trillion dollars ! I am repeating this for 2 reasons :
1/ It doesn't seem to filter through that Gold's valuation
has an *enormous* leverage on the globe in its totality !
2/ It is for this reason that no marketing for "Gold as an Investment" can ever be tolerated !

We are brainwashed as to believe that it is the dollar's purchasing power that is directing Gold's valuation. I think it is the other way around. Gold and more precisely the 140.000 tonnes (effective only 80.000-minus jewelry) is the determinator of the dollar's strength or weakness.

500 to 1.200 tonnes of paper gold are traded per day to avoid the unthinkable of a Gold coup d'etat against the state of dollars. It doen't take a conspiracy to announce the uptake of 5.000 tonnes of Physical Gold out of this market, at once. Let your imagination and sense for reality flow freely. Compare Gold's might with the power of crude oil and the final goals of the present crusade !

Our attitude towards Gold must be impregnated with this knowledge. If one sidelines his emotions about the ongoing atrocities, one can see what all these actions are serving.
Cheap crude and cheap Gold are to stay in place and price controlled by all means to serve his majesty the dollar.

We all saw what happened with a POO of 34$. We will see what will happen with a POG breaking through the 350$.
BTW, the inverse SHS (bottom-pattern) for POG is suggesting a price rise to 325$...exactly the very important resistance.

Oil swing producers and Gold accumulators must be prevented at all price to decide on valuing the dollar. The war on crude oil is easier to understand than the backstage paper war on Gold. But both wars are happening now with increasing momentum and intensity !

Oil and Gold need minor price management to assure the constant flow of new production. POG beyond 350$ and POO beyond 40$ means that controll is lost and the dikes are breaking. With or without a succesfull or unsuccesfull euro it would have happened anyway.

All political decissions have in one way or another a linkage to this two most political of resources (valuables). A lot of major news events are organized or provoked to consolidate the existing ruling power. It is sometimes difficult to see the trees through the forest.
And that's why we need each other (Yes indeed, Sir Gresham) so badly.
This is not an emotional declaration of any kind :-).

R PowellSilver rally?#6696212/16/01; 07:49:48

Good Sunday morning here in the USA Northeast.
From the IBD published yesterday giving Friday's closing Comex silver prices (the final weekly paper game scores if you like)
Dec. 01 435.70 +9.20
Feb. 02 435.50 +8.20
May 02 436.20 +8.00
Sept.02 437.50 +7.30
Dec. 02 437.70 +6.70
Dec. 03 443.00 +5.70
I've been back to the books refreshing on backwardation or backwardization where the spot and near futures dates are higher than the further out dated ones.
My books don't give much other than that the normally higher prices for future delivery (latter dates) reflect both the spot price and the cost of storage for metals. This contango price is also linked to the current interest rates as money is tied up (margin) in the buying of silver to be delivered at a future date.
The opposite of contango is backwardation. This is usually caused by a shortage or an intentional short squeeze. I've heard rumors that Enron held short silver positions (to raise capital) whose offsetting may be the cause of silver's present behavior. Anyone else hear any of this?
Ted Butler thinks this is speculative short coverage and that the extent of the price rise will depend upon how willing the commercials are to sell into this demand. IMHO every time this occurs this is less to sell into this buying. Eventually, the selling response will be anemic enough to panic those trying to buy. One of these days, Alice, one of these days...
Now both lease rates and the closing Comex prices are indicating a great demand for immediate silver. Is this a short lived rumor driven hiccup in price movement or something more permanent like physical shortage, a big money player entering the game, or a reaction to yet another lowering of the Fed. rate. IMHO any of these reasons or whatever reason is the cause, if it has any staying power (that is anything not temporary) then this same cause will also stir up the gold market. Even if physical silver shortage is the cause, gold prices will be influenced. Why?, because the markets will respond and the event underway, before many players have any clue as to why.
Perhaps the thing to watch is whether this rally which started 30+ cents lower, has any staying power. Is this the one?? How strong are the hands that hold the ever declining stores of available silver? Any thoughts?
Happy weekend!

EagleOneBelgian#6696312/16/01; 08:07:35

There is apparently one recent exception to you point 2) that *It is for this reason that no marketing for "gold as an investment" can ever be tolerated.

In the current issue of Barron's on page 17 there is a striking full page ad paid for by the World Gold Council. The ad reads: BE PREPARED. WHATEVER THE FORECAST. Gold is the solid investment alternative. When conventional assets fluctuate, even a modist amount of gold can help stabilize your portfolio. And you can easily buy or sell gold bullion coins and bars almost anywhere in the world. So buy gold and gain security. A photo of stacked gold coins and bars appears prominently in the middle of the ad followed by the punch line...MAKE AN INVESTMENT IN GOLD.

KnallgoldBelgian#6696412/16/01; 08:42:11

" It is for this reason that no marketing for "Gold as an Investment" can ever be tolerated !"

You forget FOA!I am not so sure nobody except a few Bugs read it :-)

As to China waiting: Will the euro mainland shoot the first physical shot (pun intended)? Remember FOA screaming early this year "it will happen in a year "?

R PowellEagle One#6696512/16/01; 09:09:23

Good for the WGC and about time. Concidering who they are and how much fiat is in the advertising budget, I hope this is just a start. I don't think they appreciate how much money is floating around looking to be invested and what a small percent of it would overwhelm precious metals at present prices. How fragile the price determining mechanism is and how unconnected to the actual reality!
I'll bet that the WGC hired an advertising firm that has, at best, little or no understanding of gold. "It's that yellow stuff that holds diamonds, right?"

miner49erWhere's Waldo?#6696612/16/01; 10:17:04

The hunt for Osama goes on. What does that mean for us? The U. S. is between the rock and hard place here. On the one hand there are the psychological expectations of the masses who have an almost obsessive need for "closure." A culture that is so inculcated with decades of absorption in movies, and TV that necessarily bring things to conclusion quickly, certainly forms this element of the national psyche. This cannot be discounted, as support for all the extreme measures that the Bush administration deems essential, both internal and external, require decidedly more than 50.1% of the people surveyed to be on-side. Such being the case, we risk either looking duplicitous in our efforts, or incompetent like Keystone Cops if we don't find him soon. Perhaps we don't really have a clue of his whereabouts. I suspect we could if we really wanted to. Do we really want to just yet is what I believe the issue to be.

On the other hand, catching him can bring the momentum to a halt as well. Despite the constant reminders we have been given that bin Laden is only one cog in the machinery, catching him will emotionally bring this episode to its climax, and subsequent "closure." Notwithstanding the internal pressures of the national constituency, the international one is even more important. Champing at the bit to move on from here, the international coalition is exerting significant pressure to wrap things up, and would love nothing more than to disband and move on. With the lack of any substantial follow-on terrorist attacks -- anything that would compare with the 9/11 events -- the perception internationally is that the crisis is past, and while the dangers are still ever before us, as long as nothing is actually happening, people will focus their attentions elsewhere. Simply put: "Out of sight, out of mind."

The U. S. however knows that this is not the end of the book, scarcely the end of a chapter. They are in the unenviable position of being recipient to the collected disaffections of peoples around the globe. Real, imagined, exaggerated, or distorted does not matter here, but rather perceptions. These perceptions are the fruition of decades (even centuries) of a negative opinion of the "West" generally, and very specifically the U. S., as seen by the "East" and most developing countries.

Again, I want to restate here, that this is not a statement on the rightness of this world view, or a justification of it. The significance here is in the word "perception."

In a seedbed where the soil is amenable to the cultivation of forces that are virulently hateful toward the West, seeds that contain the code to bring forth this fruit will grow and will ultimately bear it. They cannot do otherwise. It will happen. The soil itself is not necessarily "hateful" of the West, but is suspicious, lacking in information, and culturally very, very different. It provides ideal growing conditions.

Left unattended, the conditions are always ripe for a harvest. What plants in the field will bear what exact fruit, and at what time is never known, but with a surety, it will come forth. As far as international relations are concerned this is a situation that the West would ultimately stand to lose. This is because the situation is utterly exhausting. It stands to exhaust the resources of the West in the effort until the balance of strength shifts, and subsequently the tide of events. This may take decades, but as long as the ground sustains the harvest, the harvest will always be there. Even a Roman style solution of absolute conquest of the opposition still requires endless vigilance to maintain the conquest against the now even more highly provoked inhabitants.

The U. S. realizes this naturally. They know there is no quick answer, so they are approaching this (in my estimation) from several angles. I will mention two:

1) Strike at key nodal points for this activity. Iraq is next, and the U. S.'s job is to find some cause that will unite world opinion in their favor, or provoke the Iraqi leadership to show their hand visibly enough to justify the attack. This is one reason why I don't believe we are going to "find" bin Laden for a while. We cannot afford the slackening of momentum. If the two efforts can be linked, it will be much easier to bring the momentum with, than to try and rev it up anew.

This will not end the prospect for terrorist activity, but can mitigate the nature of this activity. The U. S. leadership realistically assesses this from the standpoint that further attacks are inevitable, and their role is to greatly lessen their nature, and impact. In this, they hopefully wish to buy time.

2) Begin the very, very slow, and lengthy process of attempting to influence Islamic nations more favorably to the West. This is perhaps the most difficult task before us. There are centuries of hostility and animosity to undo. There are plenty of grievances to go around this century alone. Yet this is essential to the U. S. unless it wishes to spend the rest of its days in constant alert mode.

Once more, this is a very long term project, and is not guaranteed even a modicum of success. One slip up, one significant perception of a double-cross, and the hope for improved relations is all over, forever. Politically expedient relations, yes, but the understanding that fosters our legitimization in their eyes, never. Even at that, if the Islamic peoples perceive they are just being played, the end result will be even more division, as previously uncommitted opinion (and pro-Western opinion) will be more easily turned against the West.

The U. S. has to weigh this as well in its efforts to cap the gold price. It is not only, as I have mentioned here a few times, to maintain support for the dollar while we undertake a massive amount of deficit spending.

Mid East oil that has been very likely accumulating gold for its oil over the years would be able to erase its dollar debt exposure in short order with a significant rise in gold. This would eliminate another hook that forces these nations to be as accommodating to the West as they are. We no longer have the bully stick with which to exert our will with no opposition. If things deteriorated there to where military considerations were had, we dare not, as China would become their hero in arms against us. One reason we have worked so hard and fast to build a relationship with Russia is to counterbalance this threat. (Not necessarily for the reason of Mid East oil, but to cause China to think twice before any contrary military engagement or expansion efforts.) And we cannot exert economic force if the dollar is in shambles, and likewise our economy.

It is arguable that our economic ills will decrease demand for oil to their hurt, forcing them to play ball and keep prices down. This I feel is an argument based on a passing paradigm. A strong euro settling oil contracts will mean more relatively cheap oil for EuroLand, and all those in the euro camp; and consume they will. It is ignorance to think that China, India, et al cannot more than compensate for our decreased consumption in not too long a time. Certainly our usage is not going to go to zero. We will still consume large amounts of oil, just not as much. And with the Mid East's dollar debt reduced or eliminated, the debt coverage freed up will also compensate for lost revenue.

Expect an all out onslaught on the current spikes in the gold price. This is perhaps the time of volatility Another and FOA spoke of. FOA suggesting there would be days of 100+ dollar swings. Birth pangs if you will. For those holding paper, it will be one of the most emotionally draining times ahead. The forum will demonstrate this in capturing the mood swings from elation to despair. People will jump in at the top of a crest, and bail out when it bottoms. Many will lose much of their wealth in this gamble. Very few will make decent profits.

Bottom line: do not discount the additional variable in this equation of U. S. vital security interests in keeping the gold price down... still... They are very real and have surprising force. Most of all, get physical gold, and don't worry about the day-to-day volatility.

good Sunday to you all,


tedwmideast#6696712/16/01; 10:41:21


AMASCUS: The Palestinian Islamic movement Hamas pledged on Friday to keep up its deadly attacks on Israel and said Yasser Arafat's Palestinian Authority was now "in the trenches" alongside the radicals.

"These operations (attacks) are in response to the massacres carried out by (Israeli Prime Minister) Ariel Sharon against our people," Hamas political chief Khaled Meshaal told journalists.

"The Palestinian escalation is in response to Israel's escalation ... the resistance will not stop until the occupier is driven back," Meshaal said at the Palestinian refugee camp of Yarmuk on the outskirts of the Syrian capital.

This is relevant in that the world political situation and war can indeed impact the price of gold as we saw on Sept. 11. The mideast appears headed towards all-out war.

President Bushes doesnt have to look far in the mid east to find Terrorists, no farther than the outskirts of the Syrian capital.The question is whether the war on terrorism is a real war. Will the Bush administration be sincere in going after terrorists,or will it only go after terrorists in nations that wont upset the Saudis?

At any rate, it does appear that the Isrealis have come to the conclusion that you cant make peace with a snake.

Look for more bloodshed and escalating tensions in the Mideast.

When will mankind repent of their hate and love their neighbor as themselve?

mikal@tedw#6696812/16/01; 11:03:19

In answer to your question: "When will mankind repent of their hatred and love thy neighbor as themselves?", love is prevalent and growing daily, but peace on earth is hundreds of years away. Please reexamine your prejudice: "the Israelis have decided that you can't make peace with a snake." Terrorism has no borders. FYI, Israel is not the only "Chosen". They do not recognize the Christian religion or holidays which is not important except that it's hushed up, Shalom, Peace, Shanti, Amen.
site steward'Inside Foreign Affairs' --- Update#6696912/16/01; 12:24:12 HEADLINE: Bush administration dilemma: Dealing with Arafat now that Israel refuses to

International editor Holger Jensen writes:

"Washington and the 15-nation European Union have both advised Sharon that it would be a mistake to deport Arafat or dismantle his Palestinian Authority. For all his faults, they regard him as the only Palestinian leader capable of making peace with Israel and fear his removal would bring chaos to the occupied territories."

(click URL for full article)

goldquestMore "Power" Plays!#6697012/16/01; 12:40:39

Enron was just the beginning!
site stewardFair notice -- these won't be around much longer#6697112/16/01; 12:44:55

At 0.3734 ounces, these "mighty" Romanov coins will do their part to help anchor your portfolio against strong financial winds. They each have over one century of experience!


tedwprejudice#6697212/16/01; 13:10:58


I do not have a prejudice, I have a clear observation of things the way they are. In General,The Palestinians and Arabs do indeed hate Isreal and Isrealite.

If they decided tommorrow to repent and live in peace as good neighbors, there would be peace. Of course, there is hatred by some in Isreal and those too are wrong.

I know evil when I see it, and Arafat,Hussein are indeed evil. It is a twisted misuse of words to call that prejudice.

HoratioEnron #6697312/16/01; 13:57:26

Enron is just the beginning for the run on Silver,wait until the rest of the story comes out.Who else is short Silver?Look for who else was advised by Goldman Sachs and there you will find who else is short Silver.Thats a good place to start.They were orchestrating this minipulation using thier advisory services,just as they advised Ashanti gold corp.
Enron will start the bull on Silver trying to cover thier shorts.The Bull on Gold will start when the Gumment devalues
the Dollar.Remember prices don't rise because gold is worth more,they rise because the Dollor is worth less,therefor you need more of them to purchase the "constant" gold.Gold is the constant,the standard whose value remains unchanged,the variables are the amount of paper it takes to buy it.
A better question may be "How much credit does it take to buy an oz.of gold?Now that will be a BIG number, when you consider how much has been created lately .

"A Distraction"
Osama has left the "cave"and I predict there will be more sightings of him than ELVIS.

Belgian@ Eagle One and @ KnallGold#6697412/16/01; 14:17:20

Thanks Eagle. But...
WGC plays its role as a pro. This kind of advertisement is simply for "the show". I'm not impressed, are you ? LOL.
Any industry in a similar state as the goldproducers, would embark on a "massive" campaign with a very high respons almost assured, due to the very favarable circumstances for Gold-Investment. But Numero uno (AU) has to justify the collected money (4$ per ounce produced) from the (fragmented) contributors and does the job of semi-advertisement with guaranteed non effectiveness. But you are correct in saying that I have to change : no advertisement allowed. Make it : no advertisement that risks of selling more Physical Gold to the people. These 200 million $ + the original 55 million $ could be put at work much more efficient. And recently I discovered some more evidence of "bad" will from the goldproducers for adequate promotion (or education). We will leave it there up until the contrary is evidenced for all to see.

KnallGold : Yes, this remains an enigma to me : How many people read and understand (want to) FOA ? But the same goes for : Who does realize that the present crusade is about Western controll of Arabic *CHEAP* oil and nothing else than that cheap oil !? Many analysis of the *WHY* of the terror and anti terror, never go into this aspect of the cause. Very understandable of course ! And no one dares to ask the question if we (the west) are prepared to accept a much higher oil price in exchange for peacefull co-existance. Things must be amalgamated for avoidance of being understandable for the general public.
A FOA background does make it much easier to look behind the smokescreens (powerstruggles and consolidations) and guess more accurately the final intentions.
Concrete : I haven't discovered anyone who has any knowledge of euro-tactics in relation to dollar/Gold valuations. But I guess that these kind of deeply storaged strategies are not for public discussion. The more, that Gold still has an enormous impact on people's confidence in fiat and its purchasing power.

Today's wild cards are : the euro - POG - POO - Saudi Arabia (Arab moslims)- China -Russia >>> confronting (challenging) the US$. Any day, a major event can produce a shocking effect when it is wrongly interpreted by the (controlled-controlling) markets. It is not the killing of OBL as such that might cause a reaction but the interpretation of the killing by the Arab moslism in this particular exercise in justice.

Our major question remains from what corner the inevitable price-(hyper)inflation will come. It can be from a major derivative default or an Arabic oil producer who decides to support the palestinians openly, as well. But all these possibilities are imo too small on their own to cause the fatal collapse. Defaults are amputated as gangrenic extremities. Arabic oil states have been americanized (from their concept onwards) to harmless bugs. And the IMF goes on with bail outs (unconditional) at large to avoid domino reactions.

The rot will most probably come from the dollar masters insides. Economic contraction and increasing unemployment for a too long and unsustainable period.
Coming inflation might be a controlled one as well. But this is going to be a very, very difficult job to contain it (cfr. POG>350$ + POO>40$ + NDX<100 + IRs>6%)
And the financial brotherhood sits tight.

Your Chineze wild card is temporary to the backstage. It was chosen as the practical (convenient) enemy before 9/11.
Very difficult to foresee what card(s) these Chineze will play (their relationship with Japan and Russia). How is Bush's unilateral decision on the ballistic missile shield going to evolve or used as a reason to react on what ?
Was the attack on the Indian parlement intended to put more pressure on Pakistan ? Do you believe that these events are not inter-connected ?

EMU is eager to step up the 12 membership to 30, Turkey included. Old Giscard D'estaing (75 yrs-France) has been taken on the constitutional board. He is a strategic (pragmatic) genius and an aristocrat.
Will EMU rush forward too rapidly (and stumble) when the first signs of succes should appear and postpone its challenge to the dollar ?

The South Iraki Kurds are already infiltrated with US special forces while troops are gathering in Kuwait. Anti Saddam inside allied forces are under construction.

The globe keeps on turning and debt keeps on growing.
POG / POS / POO (and CBR resources) adjusted for dollar weakness against the euro. I'm waiting for the inverse relationship : POG and POO forcing the dollar to adjust to their real value.

Understandable as well.

R PowellEnron's lost silver#6697512/16/01; 15:09:09

From Horatio's 66973, "Enron will start the bull on Silver trying to cover their shorts."
I've heard the same. Can you offer any confirmation? All I've heard is still in the opinion/rumor category. I'd love to see something to put assurance to the rumor. If you are correct that Enron shorted silver on the advice of Goldman-Sacks then it would indeed seem plausible that this same strategy was given to others. If others also attempt short covering we could be on our way.
I believe this would spark a big and, more importantly, a sustained rally which would carry POG along regardless of the dollar's perceived strength. POG and the dollar are inversely connected but other forces can move one or the other then causing disturbances affecting everything that's connected in the equation. In other words, changes in the POS=higher POG which then becomes a force driving down the perception of the dollar's strength.
Does this sound plausible or am I dreaming.
As a trader or market student, I believe any POS rally will also drive up POG and vice-versa simply because the traders will react that way. Traders and large speculative market players are not economic students and many are not even remotely informed as to what's happening. Many could not be bothered, some intentionally disdain fundamental information as it might bias their chart reading.
We should find out this coming week if this rally has legs. Now wouldn't that be nice!
Any further info on what has sparked silver lease rates and price? Thanks

R Powell(No Subject)#6697612/16/01; 15:20:13

I should add to my last post that if POS does spark the POG, the POG itself would (in rising) very soon sustain itself. Indeed, it would soon catch up to silver and then truck right on by. I add this so as not to offend those goldbugs who disdain silver as just an industrial metal. You guys wouldn't really mind a little jump-start from silver?
Remember, silver is real money too. It's main function is in making change for gold.
There is also the distinct possibility that the POS rally is just another short-lived rumor blip. Who knows?

Gold Trail UpdateThe Gold Trail Discussion has been Updated#6697712/16/01; 15:27:35">The Gold Trail Discussion has been updated. Click on the link to read the latest updates.
miner49erFOA - And a Happy Holiday season to you and yours...#6697812/16/01; 15:43:58

I'm sure I speak on behalf of many, many individuals who visit this site in being pleasantly surprised by your return to wish us holiday greetings...

And I'm sure I speak on their behalf in returning the greetings, and saying that we look forward to your commentary...

Thank you, Sir Douglas, for the countless hours you have expended in imparting to us your wisdom and insights here at this forum.

Warmest regards,


Gandalf the WhiteHail Sir Douglas !#6697912/16/01; 15:58:13

As the rains arrive and our crops begin to grow :
---- "We watch this new gold market together, yes?" -----
A happy (smile) to all!
AND a "HAPPY NEW YEAR" greeting to you too from all the Hobbits in Middle Earth. WELCOME Home !!

Chris PowellHelpful comments from Godsell on the gold price and GATA#6698012/16/01; 16:02:33

AngloGold's Bobby Godsell has some pretty interesting
and helpful things to say about the gold price and GATA.
And a student in South Africa expresses his support
in a note that shows what this struggle is really all about.

To subscribe to GATA's dispatches
by email and get them immediately so
you don't have to go look for them,
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ROSEBUD99ron paul#6698112/16/01; 16:06:49

Interesting speech by Ron Paul. talks about some of the posts on this forum about oil/unical/Afghanistan and our war against an "unseen enemy". One brave soul in congress. I hope he watches his backside.
Interstateminer49er msg#66966#6698212/16/01; 16:07:37

I just finished reading your msg#66966 and I am truly impressed by the clarity and eloquence in the way you expressed yourself. I agree with most of your writing and you helped me to sort out some of my opinions. I commend you for such a meaningful post.
Regards, Interstate

The StrangerWhat Deflation? by James Grant in Forbes#6698312/16/01; 16:17:26

"Historically," says Michael F. Bryan, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Ohio, the keeper of the keys of the index, "when you have a divergence of this magnitude, when the CPI is going in one direction and the median is going in another, it's usually the CPI that changes its course to conform with the median. These things are designed to track the same trends. They will not diverge indefinitely because it's the same basic set of weights."

This is not to say that the headline inflation rate will turn back up next month. But it does suggest that if deflation fears touch off a panic sale in gold, copper, inflation-protected Treasury securities or other currently scorned inflation hedges, you might coolly consider becoming a buyer."

FlatlanderTrail Guide and Christmas#6698412/16/01; 16:45:22

Trail Guide, Your return is welcomed. In fact I was spending the afternoon reading MK's News & Views with the lengthy article from the Trail. While reading, I was musing on how much I had missed your inputs during these most interesting times. You have helped many people who lurk to have a better Holiday knowing that you will be writing as we go forward.
May you and yours have a Happy Holiday!


WaveriderTrailGuide#6698512/16/01; 17:41:12

A very warm welcome to you upon your return. Yes, we watch this new gold market together. My understanding grows in leaps and bounds thanks to the GoldTrail archives, and to the shared wisdom and patience of the many on this forum. I look forward to your future writings Sir.

Warmest regards, and may the holiday season be filled with peace and joy for you and your family.


Chris PowellSpecial report on gold price suppression and GATA in New African magazine#6698612/16/01; 17:44:20

A nine-page special report about GATA and the
suppression of the gold price appears in the
December issue of New African magazine.

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you don't have to go look for them,
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R PowellPPT overseas offices#6698712/16/01; 17:53:14

Does anyone know if the PPT has an office in Sydney?
POG down 0.30 and POS straight down 0.06. Hopefully, this thin trading is not an omen of things to come. Maybe the Hong Kongers will help.

Mr GreshamFOA#6698812/16/01; 18:05:03

It was a ray of sunshine for me through today's intense rainclouds, to find you in good spirits, and resting for the hikes ahead!

Don't let ANYONE get you down -- friendship and trust are earned and found in strange ways and places (including these little computer boxes), in strange times like these, and I think you know what you have achieved here by revealing your character through your words.

mikal@tedw#6698912/16/01; 18:16:29

Don't misquote me or slander me again.
Chris PowellBarron's notes that the Fed is covering up#6699012/16/01; 18:58:08

An essay in Barron's notes that the Federal Reserve
is shredding its minutes and trying to keep the
public from finding out what it's doing.

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Chris PowellHugo Salinas Price has it figured out for Latin America#6699112/16/01; 19:51:08

National TV interview in Mexico proposes
remonetizing silver to achieve the country's
economic independence.

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Chris PowellWith Homestake acquired, will Barrick bid for Normandy, or even for AngloGold?#6699212/16/01; 20:17:33

With Homestake safely acquired, will Barrick bid for
Normandy now, or even for AngloGold?

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Black BladeBritain 'could face gas shortage'#6699312/16/01; 20:43:17,,5-2001581685,00.html


BRITAIN risks a future of gas shortages and surging fuel prices if Norway's state- dominated gas industry fails to speed the development of new gasfields and pipeline infrastructure. Potential for a California-style energy meltdown is highlighted in a report by Deutsche Bank, which gives warning that Britain may become exposed to weak infrastructure links and overdependence on a foreign state-controlled gas industry, leading to price volatility.

Black Blade: The UK is not alone. The US has not taken advantage of a temporary reprieve from shortages in petroleum products. There is less drilling, no increased pipeline capacity, and declining hydrocarbon pools. Complacency has returned and as the Grasshoppers in the People's Republik of Kalifornia had once learned, the lack of preparation results in severe consequences. Unfortunately we are about to repeat the whole mess over again and again as the hydrocarbon addicted masses will have to eventually pay higher and higher prices for energy, goods, and services. That is just the nature of the beast. Grasshoppers have never been very high on the evolutionary ladder anyway. Another result of our lack of preparation is that we will become ever more dependent on the Middle East for our petroleum needs. We are living in "Interesting Times" or possibly are about to live in a "Brave New World."

miner49erInterstate @ 66982#6699412/16/01; 21:14:04

Greetings Interstate, thank you for your comments. It is always nice to know that time invested in writing one's thoughts is spent well if someone actually reads what one writes.

Best regards,

Black BladeA Weaker Yen Won't Strengthen Japan#6699512/17/01; 00:03:57


One of the biggest Japanese myths still going is that when times get tough, a little yen depreciation is a great tonic. This owes much to the fact that Japan continues to view itself primarily as an export powerhouse. And what's good for exporters, more or less, is good for the entire archipelago. That's why the latest suggestion, drawn from Tokyo officialdom's grab bag of policy gimmicks, goes something like this: Hey, why doesn't the Bank of Japan [BOJ] start purchasing billions worth of high-quality foreign bonds? To do that, it has to print scads of new yen, which would cause the currency to tumble, pushing it from 124 to the U.S. dollar now to maybe 200. That's great for Japanese exporters.

Black Blade: Those lucky Japanese who have the forethought to accumulate Gold are well protected against horrendous losses incurred in yen valued investments. The failed Japanese currency is currently "valued" at 127.76 yen to the US dollar. It should fall fast and furious as Japan experiences serious credit problems and insolvent Japanese banks continue to merge and/or are propped up by the Japanese government. Meanwhile Japanese who salted away a few suitcases of the now failed currency in Gold are certainly glad that they dodged the bullet and have some portfolio protection, while other foolish Japanese investors are continuously mislead by self-serving businessmen and politicians under some absurd notion of patriotism and false loyalty. This is a very "interesting" article. A yen for your thoughts?

Black BladePrecious Metals Mixed#6699612/17/01; 00:35:36

The Precious Metals are lower except Silver. Silver continues to make gains. The Warren Buffett rumors just won't go away. The Buffett silver leases come due in January and speculation is that the leases will not be renewed. This has apparently caused a short squeeze as lenders who sold the Buffett Silver scramble to make good on these loans.

The minor sideline story is that the US Mint cupboard is bare and poor Mother Hubbard must go out and find Silver for the US Mint Silver eagle program and specialty coin issues. The strategic stockpile is depleted and that could be the reason that there has been a sudden stoppage in minting Silver coin at the US Mint. The US Mint must buy Silver in a tightening market.

There is also the Enron derivatives collapse that may have triggered some short covering on the rumored Enron Silver contracts. I understand that JPMC and Citibank are rumored to be on the hook for several billion dollars because of the Enron collapse. Enron looks to be beyond salvaging. In other words - "Game Over"

Whatever the reason, Silver leases rocketed higher and Silver futures are in extreme backwardation and rates may be poised to move much higher as a mad scramble may ensue to accumulate any available Silver. Looks like the squeeze is on!

- Black Blade

Golden Dreams (with a Silver lining) all!

LeSin"If we did not have the Euro, we would have to invent it"#6699712/17/01; 03:52:47

The Euro's A Must, Says Russian Business
Fight against the dollar "long and complicated," says finance minister

By Michael Stedman
11.12.2001, 13:16

[printable version]

Russian business welcomed the launch of a single currency for Europe in Moscow today (Tuesday) as "a significant hedge" against high exposure to dollar-denominated risk.

"If we didn't have the euro, we would have to invent it," said Igor Jeurgens, vice-president of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs.

"We are looking with big attention and optimism at the process of a growing single European environment including Russia," he told an international conference on the role of the new currency in European integration.

Russian business people understood that the euro's introduction in notes and coins across the European Union on New Year's Day "will influence the process of integration and the attractiveness of the currency" - a comment noting the euro's transition from a "virtual" business monetary unit to real tender.

Russian evaluation of the currency and commitment to it would depend to a large degree on its exchange rate and the monetary policy of the Central Bank, Jeurgens said.

"Analysts will say that for the while, they see the authorities of the United States as more serious institutions than the financial authorities of Europe, but we are sure this is temporary in respect of the integration process," he added.

A converging Europe was "a living organism" and serious plans were taking shape, the speaker said.

Contacts between his organization's officials and the union's more than 80 regional branches had already confirmed their interest in the euro and its potential impact at a corporate and consumer level.

This had put in train a campaign to inform the Russian public and the business community of prospects for the money's use.

Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told the conference the euro's competitive fight against the dollar would be "long and complicated," noting that 35 per cent of Russian sovereign debt was already euro-denominated.

"We economists and business people will be looking with hope at this very serious project in the interests of the world economy," the deputy premier said.

"Russia is interested in a strong European currency. Russian banks want to create equal conditions for all world currencies," he said.

A single currency promoted transparency of business transactions and European capital markets would become more attractive for Russia, the minister added. It was also "strategically very useful" for diversifying the structure of Russian bank assets.

The euro had already demonstrated significant growth on the Moscow currency exchange, Kudrin revealed. The unit's share of total foreign trading was up by two-and-a-half times.

"This will promote use of the euro as a world currency," he said, one of its key strengths being the spread of investment risk.

Twelve member states and 300 million citizens of the European Union abandon their national currencies on January 1st as the euro's notes and coins go into public circulation.

The currency becomes legal tender in Russia on the same day, available from commercial banks and currency exchanges.


LeSinMore News Re: EURO & RUSSIA#6699812/17/01; 04:00:23

Reading European & Russian sites does help one in gaining some perspective. Cheers "S"
Black BladeLine for bankruptcy court gets longer#6699912/17/01; 06:39:31

As filings hit new records, more industries get hit


SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- From Bethlehem Steel to Webvan, the battered U.S. economy has forced companies into bankruptcy from one end of the alphabet to the other at a record pace this year. But the worst may be yet to come.

Black Blade: The pace of bankruptcy filings has picked up even as the Pied Pipers and Trolls of Wall Street continue to scream that recovery is just around the corner. The facts don't even come close to suggesting an economic recovery, but rather an economy sliding off into a dark abyss. Look for more high profile bankruptcies like that of Enron. This is not a "typical" recession. It is something much worse. Consumer and corporate debt is extremely high at record levels, the "Bone Pile" grows daily in a corporate "Scorched Earth" policy, and corporate earnings are failing to materialize. In a word - "GRIM"

HenriSir Douglas#6700012/17/01; 06:45:37